John FitzGerald
John FitzGerald
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$Oracle(ORCL)$ $SpaceX(SPCX)$ $NVIDIA(NVDA)$ $Amazon.com(AMZN)$ Markets will never be what they once were. Options trading was the first downfall. There's still money to be made, but you need serious nerve to trade in this environment. Wall Street, politics, and AI are the ones in control now. Most people will go broke trying. AI stocks are going to go through the roof, but there will be plenty of ups and downs between now and then. And a lot of people will still end up broke.
$SpaceX(SPCX)$  Customer concentration isn't really an issue here. These customers desperately need the compute, and even if some of them were to change their minds, there are thousands of other customers waiting for that capacity.
$Microsoft(MSFT)$ They're saying the second half acceleration is coming from GPUs, CPUs, and higher memory and storage costs. The biggest buyer in the world is paying more for memory and still ordering more. Memory is the real bottleneck here.
$iShares Semiconductor ETF(SOXX)$ $Direxion Daily Semiconductors Bull 3x Shares(SOXL)$ $Direxion Daily Semiconductors Bear 3x Shares(SOXS)$ SOXL has dropped 75% from its high of $302. Since it launched in March 2010, there have been two major pre-COVID drawdowns where SOXL fell 70% or more, or came very close. Here's how buying at extreme drawdown points performed over the following 5-year windows: 1. 2011 European Debt / Tech Correction SOXL fell roughly 73% between April 2011 and October 2011 on European sovereign debt concerns and a global growth slowdown. Buying near the October 2011 bottom produced a 5-year return of about +350% to +400%. 2. 2
$Applied Optoelectronics(AAOI)$ AAOI hit $233 five months ago, then dropped to $76 and back to $161 two months ago, then dropped to $95 and back up to $131 two weeks ago. We're now sitting at the lows from 3 months ago. It ran from $85 to $233 in 6 weeks, doubling prior to Q2 earnings. The volatility will continue after the Q3 ER, but at a higher level in my view. I believe AAOI will hit their targets and continue to guide for $1B+ for 2026. That's why I haven't sold a single share throughout all of these gyrations.
$SK hynix(SKHY)$ It wouldn't surprise me if Kospi takes off to the upside. High beta, high volatility, high leverage cuts both ways. We've already seen the downside, but it's just as capable of producing a face-ripping rally to the upside.
$SpaceX(SPCX)$ Two patterns have stood out over the last two months. There tends to be a selloff right before an unlock date, and the 20 mda seems to act as support before a bounce.
$Invesco QQQ(QQQ)$ Ok, I'm on 1 DTE now. This thing is ripping. I also added more to my $185 $SpaceX(SPCX)$  calls at .11 to average down.
$Applied Optoelectronics(AAOI)$ The gap got filled, and the daily opened and closed above the upper Bollinger Band. A pullback looks fairly likely from here. I got back in at $121, and I'm looking toward $300.
$Western Digital(WDC)$ $Seagate Technology PLC(STX)$ This looks pretty painful right now, but I know how the market behaves. It will for sure turn to the upside, though short term there could be some bumps.
$SpaceX(SPCX)$ What needs to happen for SPCX to go up?
$Bloom Energy Corp(BE)$  The next earnings report is likely to come in well above analyst expectations again. Revenue should keep growing at a strong pace. By the end of the year, the stock could push past the $400 level. This one has delivered since the $14 range. The CEO comes across as credible, and the message stands out: "Don't bet against us... you'll lose." Long-term holders look well positioned here.
$Direxion Daily Semiconductors Bear 3x Shares(SOXS)$ Might be able to add 300 shares near 32. Looks like they're doing some hard window dressing into month-end.
$SK hynix(SKHY)$  SK Hynix is being added to the SMH ETF today. That could be a big momentum shift for the stock, especially after it was added to NASDAQ two months ago. One of the largest IT ETFs in the world is now recognizing it as a major AI player. I plan to watch SK Hynix closely over the next few weeks to see if upward momentum builds.
$Baidu(BIDU)$ $Tesla Motors(TSLA)$ $SpaceX(SPCX)$  BIDU at $90. Could reach $180 before long. A fair price for BIDU should be at least $180 or higher, given its self-driving car business. This is where the future is being priced in.
$Bloom Energy Corp(BE)$ The House passed the bill allowing data centers to bring their own power, 413-3. That looks like a strong tailwind for this stock.

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