OguzO Capitalist
OguzO Capitalist
Selective contrarian investor | The writer of the Capitalist-Letters newsletter
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12-11 23:14

Here are 10 Stocks that'll Benefit from Lower Rates

The Fed has just cut interest rates again and signaled another rate cut next year.Here are 10 stocks that'll benefit from lower rates: đŸ§”1. $Pagaya Technologies Ltd.(PGY)$ - Leading second-look lending network.- Expanding into auto loans and BNPL.- Markdowns are normalizing.Analysts expect 17% growth next year, but it's too low in my opinion. It can do way better in a lower-rate environment.It's an asymmetric opportunity at 15x earnings, given that estimates are likely too low.Image2. $Upstart Holdings, Inc.(UPST)$ - Leading AI-powered lending marketplace.- Originations grew 80% YoY, reaching $2.9 billion.- It's trading at 15x 2027 earnings despite strong growth.It got sold off after Q3 results because inve
Here are 10 Stocks that'll Benefit from Lower Rates

Here is My AMZN Investment Thesis

$Amazon.com(AMZN)$ is the cheapest mega-cap stock now.The stock has been flat since last December despite accelerating AWS growth and expanding profit margin.I think it can easily double from here in the next 5 years.Here is my AMZN investment thesis: đŸ§”1/ AMZN has a strong market position in three fast-growing markets:- Online shopping- Cloud computing - Digital advertisingIt is the market leader in cloud and e-commerce and the third largest digital advertiser in the world.All these segments are still growing fast.Image2/ Let's start with cloud computing, Amazon's cash cow.AMZN is the leader in the global cloud business with 29% market share, while MSFT is at 22% and $GOOG is at 13%.It looks like Amazon's market share is trending down here, but it
Here is My AMZN Investment Thesis

GLD, INTC, ORCL,SPY& GEV Welcome Great Upward Momentum!

Hello everyone! Today i want to share some technical analysis with you!1. $SPDR Gold ETF(GLD)$ Never forget the Golden Chalice breakout. Image2. $Intel(INTC)$ I see Trump is a fan of using the anchored VWAP ⚓Image3. $Oracle(ORCL)$ Comeback season?Image4.Turtles got back in $SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust(SPY)$ yesterday at the open. 🐱The blue line maps the average move after this signal across the last five years.Image5. $GE Vernova Inc.(GEV)$ Time to run it back 🍋ImageFor SG users only, Welcome to open a CBA today and enjoy access to a trading limit of up to SGD 20,000 with unlimited
GLD, INTC, ORCL,SPY& GEV Welcome Great Upward Momentum!

Cost of using AI models has collapsed according to JP Morgan.

While this is good for the diffusion of the technology, it doesn’t bode well for the foundational model providers as it signals commoditization.Remaining margins will be competed away once the model development flatlines.Value creation will shift to the application layer, and big AI labs supplying foundational models will be more like internet service providers.The technology itself will get occasional upgrades (like we had in telecom with 3G, 4G, 5G) but it won’t be exclusive to any model provider so it’ll remain as a commodity.I think their faith will be parallel to internet service providers. They’ll make massive investments and really change the world, but they won’t see high return on investment as their product will have already become a commodity when they decide to harvest.ImageFor
Cost of using AI models has collapsed according to JP Morgan.

Big Shift in AI is Coming!

1.We might get a big sell-off in the US market if Japan raises interest rates.They approved a stimulus because they finally have positive inflation so companies can invest and grow and people are better off spending then saving. They don’t want to lose it.But they are also considering raising rates because their Debt/GDP ratio is above 200% and the central bank can’t print money at no cost anymore as inflation isn’t 0.Thus, any increase in government bond yields skyrockets their interest payment and yields are surging as investors are pricing higher inflation due to stimulus and internal spending.They are stuck between a hard place and rock.If they raise rates, many investors who borrowed cheap in Japan and invested in the US will have to liquidate their positions and close their debt befo
Big Shift in AI is Coming!

PLTR: Why the Burry’s PLTR short won’t work?

I’ll tell you why Burry’s $Palantir Technologies Inc.(PLTR)$ short won’t work.Actually, no PLTR short will work soon.Those who are shorting the stock are the same idiots who shorted Bitcoin at $50k.They don’t understand the nature of it.PLTR isn’t about fundamentals or valuation, it’s an accord between the retail investors and the company.Retail trusted it to be a vehicle for the redistribution of wealth.They put their money in the stock, and never sold regardless of fundamentals, valuation etc, so the stock has consistently gone up.Management accepted this as they are also mavericks, they remained loyal to the accord by not doing something stupid like fraud etc.As the business also performed well, traders and institutions joined, creating immense
PLTR: Why the Burry’s PLTR short won’t work?

AI Will Conquer the World!

In the last two months:1) $NEBIUS(NBIS)$ signed $17 billion deal $Microsoft(MSFT)$ .2) $Alphabet(GOOG)$ signed $3.5 billion deal with $TeraWulf Inc.(WULF)$ .3) $IREN Ltd(IREN)$ signed $10 billion deal with $Microsoft(MSFT)$ .4) $Amazon.com(AMZN)$ signed $5.5 billion deal with $Cipher Mining Inc.(CIFR)$ .Why are hyperscalers renting capacity rather than building it?They are trying to limit their risk if something goes wrong with AI or there happens to b
AI Will Conquer the World!

Here is Why NVO is a 2x Opportunity Now

1/ $Novo-Nordisk A/S(NVO)$ was once a market darling, now everybody hates it.Yet, growth is still strong, the oral Wegovy is coming this quarter, and it has the strongest pipeline in weight-loss drugs.Here is why NVO is a 2x opportunity now: đŸ§”2/ Let's set the stage first: What does NVO do?NVO is the global leader in diabetes treatment with a 33% market share.This market has three main segments:- Oral Anti-Diabetes drugs- Insulin- GLP-1NVO holds the leadership position in all these markets.Image3/ It currently controls 42% of the global insulin market.This has traditionally been Novo Nordisk's biggest business.However, the balance is shifting.Last year, insulin made up only 18% of the shares, while GLP-1 products made up 50% of all sales.Image4/ NVO
Here is Why NVO is a 2x Opportunity Now

Here is My SLNH Investment Thesis

1/ $Soluna Holdings, Inc.(SLNH)$ is the cheapest data center stock in the market.It has nearly 1GW capacity under development with 2GW of pipeline.If they can execute, the stock can easily make 6x from here.Here is my SLNH investment thesis: đŸ§”Mountainous landscape with layered ridges under a hazy sky features several white wind turbines on green hills in the foreground and a winding road leading into the distance. Prominent overlaid text reads SOLUNA in large blue and orange letters with a triangular symbol.2/ SLNH builds data centers near renewable power plants to benefit from excess generation.One-third of the power generated from renewables is wasted due to grid congestion and a lack of storage.Soluna uses excess generation to power data center
Here is My SLNH Investment Thesis

SOFI: Earnings First Impressions

$SoFi Technologies Inc.(SOFI)$ earnings first impressions:1) Blockbuster quarter from every angle. Revenue growth accelerated from 34% a year ago to 38%, adding record mumber of users and products.2) It’s becoming increasingly capital-light business. Fee based revenue share has reached 43%, which was just 37% in 2024. This will drive significant margin expansion going forward.3) Lending is up around 10% Q/Q and 23% YoY. This segment is still under its potential and I think it’ll accelerate with rate cuts. Lot of room for growth here.4) Personal loan charge-off rates declined by 92 bps, signaling consumer strength and conservative underwriting.5) It’s now funding 92% of all loans and financial products using its deposit base. As its cost of capital
SOFI: Earnings First Impressions

Long For AMZN!!

I’m long $Amazon.com(AMZN)$ , but this is totally unacceptable.AWS is failing to attract AI related business because management thought making their own chips would reduce future costs. Only problem? Those chips have zero developer ecosystem, which wipes out any naked cost advantages.When you account for development speed and performance, $NVIDIA(NVDA)$ GPUs end up having a lower total cost of ownership than custom AWS chips. While AWS tries to push chips that lack a developer ecosystem, rivals win the new business and lock customers in, making any future cost advantages from custom chips irrelevant.Stop trying to challenge the industry standard. You can’t do that when the race is this fast and the stakes
Long For AMZN!!

The Market is Just Wrong About NVO

The market is just wrong about $Novo-Nordisk A/S(NVO)$ ..It’s still ahead of $Eli Lilly(LLY)$ in the weight-loss market.Novo’s oral GLP-1 will be launched later this year while Lilly’s oral weight-loss pill is expected in early 2026.Novo’s oral drug led to 13.6% weight-loss after 72 weeks while Lilly’s pill showed 12.4% weight drop.It’s not that different for weight-loss injections too.Novo has Amycretin and Lilly has Retatritude as the upcoming flagship drugs.While they both delivered 24% weight-loss in trials, Retatritude did that in 48 weeks while it only took 36 weeks for Amycretin.In sum, NVO is well positioned to keep its leadership position in the market.Given that this market is expected to reach $1
The Market is Just Wrong About NVO

AI Industry Chain

1. $Amazon.com(AMZN)$ is the cheapest mega-cap stock now.It’s only up 30% since 2020 despite doubling the revenue.It has grown into its overvaluation.Now it’s cheap again, trading at just 19 times operating cash flow.The stock didn’t move because the market believes that AWS is losing the AI infrastructure race as its growth lagged other hyperscalers.However, AWS will reaccelerate as Anthropic’s gigawatt scale Trainium clusters start operation this quarter.Once AWS accelerates, the market will reprice it. Long $Amazon.com(AMZN)$ .Dark-themed financial chart from TrendSpider displaying Amazon AMZN weekly stock performance from 2021 to 2025 with candlestick patterns in green and red, price scale on right fr
AI Industry Chain

UNH: High Potential to Buy!

1.Here is how I see the market right now:- The overall market is expensive.- Inflation may tick up soon due to tariffs, etc.- Commercial credit is weaker than consumer credit.This is a time to think more defensively than offensively.Healthcare is there for defensive positioning, trading at just 17× forward earnings versus 23× for the S&P.The largest healthcare providers are still down about 40% from their highs, and they are guiding for growth next year.Hedge funds are buying, members of Congress are buying, and even Buffett is buying.I think the sector deserves some attention now.Especially $UnitedHealth(UNH)$ .Line chart titled S and P 500 versus Health Care Forward P E dated October 10 2024, showing red line for S and P 500 forward P E and b
UNH: High Potential to Buy!

LONG AMZN& UNH

1. $Amazon.com(AMZN)$ -1% YTD despite the market rally.This is due to the underperformance of AWS relative to other cloud giants.AWS grew just 19% last year, while $Microsoft(MSFT)$ Azure grew 20% and $GOOG Cloud grew 30%.This will change once Anthropic's AWS clusters go live.Two gigawatt-scale clusters are beginning operations this year, and they will accelerate AWS growth from 19% to 26% levels, according to SemiAnalysis.If Anthropic gets performance from them, further deployment of Trainium-equipped clusters will follow.If Anthropic validates the performance, many smaller AI labs may follow, and AWS's growth can reach 30% levels.Long AMZN.Bar chart displays Amazon Web Services revenue growth from 2018
LONG AMZN& UNH

Here is Why FLNC is an Asymmetric Opportunity

1/ $Fluence Energy, Inc.(FLNC)$ is the leading utility-scale battery provider with 5x potential.Power demand is exploding due to rapid data center buildout.Most of the new capacity should come from renewables, where storage is critical.Here is why FLNC is an asymmetric opportunity: đŸ§”2/ First, some background.AI is driving rapid data center buildout across the world.Bloomberg expects that data center power demand will quadruple in the next 10 years.Where will this supply come from?Image3/ Most of the supply will come from renewables.Fossil fuels will be largely depleted in the next 50 years, so renewables and nuclear are the only options.Bloomberg expects 70% of power will come from renewables in 2050.However, renewables come with challenges..Image
Here is Why FLNC is an Asymmetric Opportunity

.SPX: It’s Time to be More Fearful than Greedy

We may literally be entering a bubble.Last month, retail investors bought a record $100 billion worth of stocks.Given that the market was already expensive, they likely got caught up in FOMO and poured most of this money into already overvalued stocks, further stretching valuations.At some point, smart money will inevitably start dumping some of these overextended names to take profits and de-risk their portfolios.When that happens, retail investors will panic and flee the market faster than they bought in.This will likely trigger the long-overdue correction.It’s time to be more fearful than greedy. $S&P 500(.SPX)$ Line chart titled Rolling 1m estimated Retail Demand $bn displays blue line fluctuating from negative 40 billion in 2016 rising to
.SPX: It’s Time to be More Fearful than Greedy

Small-caps are Dying

Hello everyone! Today i want to share some trading ideas with you!1.Small-caps are dying. $iShares Russell 2000 ETF(IWM)$ The Russell 2000 has consistently lost ground to mega-cap companies over the past 20 years.Digital technologies, most notably the Internet and mobile, are increasingly turning markets into winner-takes-all environments.The Internet enables massive network effects, which are further reinforced by mobile as it drives frequent daily usage.Companies benefiting from this, like Meta and Spotify, become so large and profitable that they can invest even more in the next big thing or expand into new markets.These massive investments allow them to leapfrog competitors in other markets.As a result, most markets are becoming winner-takes-al
Small-caps are Dying

Here is my AMD Investment Thesis!

1/ $Advanced Micro Devices(AMD)$ has just signed a $100 billion chip deal with OpenAI.This is just the beginning.It has a path to become a $1 trillion company as it's catching up with $NVIDIA(NVDA)$ in both hardware and software.Here is my AMD investment thesis: đŸ§”Lisa Su holding two semiconductor chips in her hands. She stands in front of a large AMD logo on a dark background.2/ AI infrastructure spending is accelerating.Most people still don't see what's coming.Jensen Huang thinks that annual AI-chip spending will reach $1 trillion by the end of this decade.This is a massive total addressable market for both AMD and NVDA.3/ NVDA has taken the lion's share of this market so far.This was because of two reas
Here is my AMD Investment Thesis!

AMD Excels All!

This is the $Advanced Micro Devices(AMD)$ investment thesis.The bulk of the costs to run AI models comes from inference and training. $NVIDIA(NVDA)$ dominates training due to its first-mover advantage, NVLink, and CUDA.Currently, most models run inference tasks on the same chips used for training, which is why the costs are so similar.But this is about to change.As the gains from pre-training begin to flatline, training workloads will decline while inference demand will skyrocket.Inference requires as much memory as possible within a single server. $Advanced Micro Devices(AMD)$ excels here.Its expertise in chiplet design allows it to connect multiple memory dies to
AMD Excels All!

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