Can $Moderna, Inc.(MRNA)$ conquer cancer with AI and mRNA? The first Phase 3 win for a personalized mRNA cancer vaccine is in. Intismeran plus $Merck(MRK)$ Keytruda beat Keytruda alone on melanoma recurrence and spread, with up to 34 neoantigens per patient. Then there was the $2.6B zero-coupon convertible, upsized, with hedges to cap dilution. Argus moved to Buy with a $180 target. The XFG booster was cleared by the FDA and MHRA. COVID paid for the factory. Cancer is the bid. $Moderna, Inc.(MRNA)$ $Merck(MRK)$
$SK hynix(SKHY)$ $Micron Technology(MU)$ SK Hynix up 3%. Samsung up 3%. Maybe the global selloff in semis and equipment has become more selective by geography. Citi flags the short positions in Korea as one of the biggest catalysts for a rebound in the Kospi. There are too many shorts, with a government that simply will not allow the Kospi to tank. Government officials continue to investigate leveraged single stock ETF providers and market making. Short betting has been capped and leverage unwinds have been mitigated by the government, not by market officials, which leaves no room for shorts. New leveraged single stock ETFs are banned, advertising is banned, and investment requirements have change
$SpaceX(SPCX)$ SpaceX has officially announced plans to build "Starbase Louisiana," a $100 billion spaceport in Vermilion Parish near Pecan Island. Construction is expected to begin in 2027, with the first launch planned for as early as 2029. Musk said the company is preparing to build a spaceport that has only existed in science fiction until now, adding that SpaceX was founded to help make space travel as routine as flying on an airplane.
$SK hynix(SKHY)$ Kospi is still trying to push higher and close the gap from the previous session. It's down 127 points, but that isn't much for that market. SK Hynix is down 4.3% in Korea.
$Moderna, Inc.(MRNA)$ We hit 195 last week and around 500 during the COVID period. History will repeat. And this discovery is worth 10x more than COVID alone.
$Applied Optoelectronics(AAOI)$ Going through the numbers again for anyone new to this. AAOI has said at least 3 times now that they expect to have capacity for $471M/month in revenue for transceivers only by mid 2027. They have also said they believe they will still be capacity constrained, and will sell every part they can make. That suggests they will continue to increase capacity through the year. If that happens linearly, the AVERAGE monthly revenue would be $471M. That makes 2027 revenue at least $5.6B per year, not counting CATV which could be $300M. So we're looking at about $5.9B in revenue for 2027. The company has also said they can hit 16% net margins at volume, or $944M in profit. If we assume they
$SK hynix(SKHY)$ Looking at the valuation discount on Korean memory stocks, it's pretty striking. Hanwha Investment & Securities ran the numbers using Bloomberg forecast data, and the forward P/E comparisons really stand out. Kioxia sits at 106.6x, TSMC at 24.4x, and Micron Technology at 18.3x. Meanwhile, Samsung Electronics and SK Hynix are trading at just 6.3x and 8.6x respectively. Against the average P/E of 49.65x for those three peers, that puts Samsung and SK Hynix at a discount of roughly 82% to 87%.
$SK hynix(SKHY)$ SK is up 5.4% now. It's technically broken out of its trading corridor. That should hopefully attract more buying later on. Buy-side circuit breakers and sidecars are getting tripped in Korea. It's a beautiful thing.
$SK hynix(SKHY)$ $SanDisk Corp.(SNDK)$ SanDisk looks like it's trying to break out of its downtrend. It has cleared the upper wall of its trading corridor, but it still needs to hold that level for confirmation.
$Micron Technology(MU)$ $SK hynix(SKHY)$ If the market doesn't bring the valuation, buybacks will still get it there anyway. I was already bullish on memory based on the HBM and strengthening consumer thesis I've been talking about. After the conference, I'm leaning toward the view that this works fine as a long-term hold even beyond that.
$SK hynix(SKHY)$ How does SKHY navigate the cresting of margin increases? Short term, I think we see some volatility that works against the stock, but after that, the data center buildout over the next 3-5 years should bring a period of decent profits and give SKHY a boost. Will there be a memory glut? That depends on how corporate AI adoption plays out. I expect a large wave of adoption early on, then a slower stretch as companies wait for better products. The computer age was a massive boom from 1985-1991, then slowed down. The internet boom ran from 1995-2000, then crashed hard. The smartphone boom lasted from 2006-2026 — just look at AAPL's stock price over those years. The AI boom started in 2022 and we still have no clear sight of how b
$SK hynix(SKHY)$ Samsung Electronics and SK hynix are projected to hold a combined $263.4 billion in net cash by the end of this year, according to Reuters. The figure is estimated to be more than twice Nvidia's net cash of about 145 trillion won and even higher than the combined net cash holdings of all the "Magnificent Seven" companies, such as Apple, Google and Microsoft. That's a pretty wild stat.