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2023-04-17

$第一共和银行(FRC)$

2023-04-10

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$第一共和银行(FRC)$

2023-02-28

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2021-05-06

$Tilray Inc.(TLRY)$What fuck！

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href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/FRC\">$第一共和银行(FRC)$&nbsp;</a><v-v data-views=\"1\"></v-v>","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/FRC\">$第一共和银行(FRC)$&nbsp;</a><v-v data-views=\"1\"></v-v>","text":"$第一共和银行(FRC)$","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/659980653","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1891,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":624273147,"gmtCreate":1677544897391,"gmtModify":1677544897391,"author":{"id":"180489801557520","authorId":"180489801557520","name":"WstreetBoy","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/67ffcee2a6d73f35b1d68c916a7e6856","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"180489801557520","idStr":"180489801557520"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"nice","listText":"nice","text":"nice","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/624273147","repostId":"1116320153","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1116320153","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1677511410,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1116320153?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2023-02-27 23:23","market":"hk","language":"zh","title":"Night Reading | How to seize major opportunities in investment?","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1116320153","media":"思想钢印","summary":"赔率、胜率与合理仓位1/7“100-20”规律经常复盘过去一段时间交易纪录的投资者，一定有一个体会，账户盈利和亏损都是由赚得最多或亏得最多的一笔或几笔构成，具体几笔与持仓分散程度和持股周期有关。这是比","content":"<p><html><head></head><body>Odds, winning rates and reasonable positions<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/30ef80cc1d747969b23f9fd049884f65\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"608\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><b>1</b><b>/7</b></p><p><b>\"100-20\" rule</b></p><p>Investors who often have trading records on review in the past period of time must have an experience.<b>The profit and loss of the account are composed of the one or several transactions that make the most or lose the most</b>, the specific transactions are related to the degree of position dispersion and the shareholding cycle.</p><p>This is more cruel than the 28th principle<b>“100-20”</b>Laws:</p><p><b>100% of the excess returns (losses) come from 20% of the transaction volume, and most of the remaining transactions are profit and loss offsets, which are similar to the index</b>, unless it is an ultra-short-term trading or a quantitative fund, basically everyone is like this.</p><p>There are only one or two transactions that make you achieve your annual income goal, and it is also because of the one or two losses that make you unable to achieve your goal. These one or two investments are what we usually say<b>\"Winner and Loser\"</b>。</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/736b32f451aae9adcd9eacbd096ed7b6\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"654\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Although most investments reach a certain point, you realize that it is not a \"winner or loser\", but you don't know it in advance.<b>Therefore, most of your investment decisions should be made carefully with a \"winner-loser\" mentality</b>。</p><p>Understanding the relationship between winning and losing hands and final returns allows you to establish the most basic stock selection criteria:</p><p><b>Assuming that your one-year income target is 15%, and assuming that the market rises by 5% this year, then the winner will bear 10% of the income of the entire account.</b></p><p>Assuming that your maximum position in a single stock is an annual average of 40%, and assuming that each position is held for one year, then there are the following criteria for stock selection that meets the income target:</p><p><b>1. Stocks that let you only dare to average 20% position last year, but the expected rate of return for one year is 50%;</b></p><p><b>2. Stocks that make you dare to hold an average of 30% of the previous year have an expected rate of return of 33% in one year;</b></p><p><b>3. Stocks that make you dare to hold an average of 40% of the previous year have an expected rate of return of 25% per year.</b></p><p>If the excess return of the account is determined by the two highest profitable stocks, then the requirement for this expected rate of return is halved, and so on.</p><p>This basic stock selection criterion includes two simplest constraints:<b>A good investment either makes you dare to take a position (Buffett's<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AAPL\">Apple</a>), or the expected rate of return is high (Bo dilemma reversal)</b>。</p><p>First of all, we have to solve a problem, what is the \"expected rate of return\"?</p><p><b>2/7</b></p><p><b>How to calculate the expected rate of return</b></p><p>Many people have studied the company, calculated the performance growth rate, and the valuation is reasonable. They feel that the company has room to double the target price, so they think that this is a stock that can \"rise by 100% in a year\".</p><p>This statement is wrong. Just now, I only calculated that under the most ideal situation of this stock, the upward space is 100%, and the downward space has not been considered, that is:</p><p>If the positive logic envisaged when buying is not fulfilled, where will the stock price fall?</p><p>In addition, the upward and downward probabilities should be considered to calculate<b>Expected rate of return</b>：</p><p><b>(Upward space * profit probability-downward space * loss probability)/Invested principal</b></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d73beb93ab2af8747252a5509e5ad82f\" tg-width=\"554\" tg-height=\"245\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Assuming that the stock price is 10 yuan, the limit profit and limit loss are 10 yuan and-4 yuan, and the probability is 50% each, then the expected rate of return of this investment is:</p><p>（10*50%-4*50%）/10=30%</p><p>Of course, this is just a simplified formula. In actual investment, within the limit value, there are various possibilities for investment results, corresponding to different probabilities. However, as a standard for individual investors to select stocks, only the upward and downward space of the limit is calculated, and the winning rate is considered to be 50%, which is enough.</p><p>When calculating the expected rate of return, look at<b>Upward space and downward space are actually judging odds</b>。</p><p><b>3/7</b></p><p><b>Odds are a limit</b></p><p>The concept of odds originates from betting, and the odds of betting can be calculated because:</p><p>1. There are only a few results;</p><p>2. Every result is a clear probability.</p><p>But not with stocks--</p><p>As analyzed above, the odds of stock investment are not explicit outcomes, but the limits of outcomes, considering small probability events, i.e.,<b>In the best case, how much can it rise; In the worst case scenario, how much can it fall?</b></p><p>The limit of upward space is that under optimistic circumstances,<b>All the benefits are realized in performance, and the target price corresponding to the highest optimistic valuation range that the market may give</b>, many brokerage research reports will give it, many people think the target price is too high, but this is just an optimistic upper limit of space.</p><p>The limit is downward, and it is necessary to judge if the favorable logic you think has not been fulfilled, the expenses are spent again, and the current product has problems again. In this case, what level is the performance? In the history of the past three years, What is the worst valuation level the market gives in this case.</p><p>It can be seen from this that,<b>Odds is a limit concept, a relatively definite calculable value</b>In contrast, the winning rate is a probability and is vague, so calculating odds is the most critical part of the overall investment process. You need to know the following points about the investment object:</p><p><b>1. Core growth logic and main risk points</b></p><p><b>2. Understand the overall history and trends of the industry and company's operations in the past few years</b></p><p><b>3. The best and worst periods in the past, specific operating data</b></p><p><b>4. The market's views at different stages and the limit valuation given</b></p><p>The more important role of calculating odds is to judge the purchase cost. If the odds of the target you are optimistic about are not enough-this is a very likely situation for a good company, then you can calculate what price it will fall to, and the odds will be appropriate.</p><p>So, how is the winning rate of stock investment determined?</p><p><b>4/7</b></p><p><b>Winning rate is a criterion</b></p><p>As analyzed above, the odds of stock investing are the limit of the outcome and can therefore be calculated, but the winning rate of stock investing is too subjective.</p><p>The current price of a certain stock is 10 yuan, and there are too many possibilities for the stock price in one year.<b>The winning rate describes the probability that the stock price will appear at each price point, which is obviously uncalculable.</b></p><p>What's more, investors can terminate it at any time. Even if it loses money one year later, it does not rule out that you sell it midway when it is profitable. That is to say,<b>You can use strategies to lock in the winning rate</b>。</p><p>So the winning rate here is an approximate probability, that is, one year later, the probability of making a profit or exceeding the increase of the market.</p><p>How to judge this?</p><p>The winning rate of a certain stock investment after one year is a conditional probability, and its<b>Standard expression</b>Is:</p><p><b>If I have bought countless such stocks, what percentage of them will rise after a year?</b></p><p>So strictly speaking, there is no way to calculate the probability of the stock, because each stock is unique.</p><p>But you can change your mind,<b>Stocks are different, but the stock selection criteria can be the same</b>。</p><p>So the actual winning percentage is judged like this:</p><p><b>1. From the past profitable transaction records, summarize a stock selection standard with a higher winning rate and a buying time standard. The more specific the requirements are, the better;</b></p><p><b>2. The more companies meet this standard, the higher the winning rate. Considering the judgment error and deviation, the winning rate can be considered to be 50%.</b></p><p>Stock selection criteria include:</p><p>1. Fixed industry characteristics, such as high prosperity industries, consumer industries, cyclical industries, etc.</p><p>2. Company development stage or market value characteristics</p><p>3. Other constraints such as competitive landscape and industry space do not need to be used, but usually the more specific the better</p><p>4. Growth logic, such as production capacity investment, category expansion, price increase, etc.</p><p>5. Growth rate requirements</p><p>6. Other personal preference requirements</p><p>Selection timing criteria include:</p><p>1. The location of the business inflection point, left or right</p><p>2. Historical valuation position requirements</p><p>3. Catalysts such as financial reports and negative market events</p><p>4. Other personal preference requirements</p><p>In short,<b>Whether the specific winning rate data is changed into \"meeting a certain winning rate standard\" or not, and if it meets a certain established standard, it can be considered as a 50% winning rate.</b></p><p>With the winning rate (actually the stock selection timing standard) and odds, the minimum position that meets the expected rate of return standard is determined according to the method at the beginning.</p><p>So, is there still a maximum position requirement?</p><p>Yes, that's the Kelly formula.</p><p><b>5/7</b></p><p><b>Kelly Formula Requirements for Positions</b></p><p>Many retail investors have the following two bad habits in position control:</p><p>Habit 1. Hold more than 50% of positions in investments with higher winning percentages or higher odds</p><p>Habit 2. Disperse positions, each position is average</p><p>The problem with Habit 2 is obvious. Through the relationship between \"rate of return, expected value, and position\" analyzed earlier, we can see that different opportunities should be given different positions. If you are right, you must increase your position. If you are not sure, but if you have imagination, it is suitable for small positions to try.</p><p><b>\"Good company, good price\" is followed by a \"good position\"</b>, otherwise, your earnings will still be mediocre.</p><p>But Habit 1 also conforms to the previous formula. Theoretically, as long as the expected value is 15%, you can hold a full position in a stock.</p><p>But,<b>Kelly's formula tells you that under no circumstances can you take a full position in a stock</b>。</p><p>If a company on the verge of delisting wants to reorganize, the stock price can be fivefold if it succeeds. If it fails, delisting will be worthless. If you get insider information, there is a 99% probability that it will succeed. How much principal should you bet?</p><p>Obviously, under such superior conditions, you should not bet all your principal. Once you step on the 1% thunder, you will be doomed.</p><p>There is an optimal ratio between positions and odds, which is the following Kelly formula (simplified version for stocks):</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/934fbfcafdecb9475e1087c26d43ad67\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"356\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p>I won't introduce the specific principle. Many articles have introduced it, just talking about its conclusion:</p><p><b>If a stock has a 2: 1 odds for the next year and a 50% winning rate, the best ratio for your average position ceiling is 25%.</b>--The reason why it is the upper limit is that most people are too optimistic about odds and winning percentage.</p><p>If the lower limit of the reasonable position calculated earlier is 33%, this investment opportunity should be temporarily abandoned, or positions should be opened in batches, and positions should be added when it falls to a reasonable price, so that the average buying cost meets the odds and yield requirements.</p><p>So<b>Investment opportunities with odds below 2: 1, which are difficult to meet the requirements of expected rate of return and Kelly's formula at the same time, should be abandoned.</b></p><p>Continue to look at the results of Kelly's formula:<b>If it is 3: 1 odds, that is 33% of the position, and if it is 4: 1 odds, that is 37.5%.</b></p><p>Generally speaking, if the odds exceed 4: 1, it is usually a reorganization, major innovation, cycle reversal or predicament reversal, it is difficult to guarantee a winning rate of more than 50% (unless there is inside information), and the position cannot be raised.<b>Therefore, most opportunities are not suitable to use more than 40% of positions.</b></p><p>According to Kelly's formula,<b>With a 50% chance of winning, no matter how big the odds, the position can't exceed 50%.</b></p><p>So what if you think the winning rate is more than 50%? Since the rise and fall of individual stocks largely depends on the index, and the index is an unexpected factor, no matter how good a company is, it can be regarded as a 50% winning rate within the year.</p><p>The conclusion is that the maximum position is 20% to 40%, and the upward space is required to be more than twice the downward space.</p><p>Obviously, most investments, we will realize at some point that it is not a \"winner\", so what should we do with it?</p><p><b>6/7</b></p><p><b>What if it's not a winner?</b></p><p>Of course, most investments will not be \"winners and losers\" in the end, usually for the following reasons:</p><p><b>Reason 1. The investment logic did not come true as you expected</b></p><p><b>Reason 2. Your buying cost is too high</b></p><p><b>Reason 3. Selling too early during the rise, or failing to seize the opportunity to increase positions at low prices</b></p><p><b>Reason 4. There is a problem with fund allocation and insufficient positions</b></p><p><b>Reason 5. The market style deviates in a direction unfavorable to you</b></p><p>The first two reasons are that your judgment is wrong,<b>The first reason is the wrong judgment of buying logic and upward space, and the second reason is the wrong judgment of odds.</b></p><p><b>The third reason is the operational factor. The \"winner and loser\" is a miracle with great force</b>, there are some companies that you have a lot of faith in, and have fallen to incredible prices at special times, so you must dare to add to the maximum position; In the process of rising heavy positions, you must also be able to hold them.</p><p><b>The fourth reason is the problem of fund allocation</b>When opportunities arise, funds are wasted on \"non-winner\" opportunities.</p><p>The winning and losing mobile phone meetings are unevenly distributed, requiring patience and courage to make decisions. The typical winning and losing mobile phone meetings in 2022 will focus on two stages:</p><p><b>1. Chance of falling out</b>: Most growth stocks in late April, liquor and Hong Kong stocks in late October</p><p><b>2. The opportunity to rise</b>: Coal stocks from January to April, new energy sector from May to August</p><p>As long as there is a certain position to seize any of these opportunities, and there is no major mistake in taking orders at a high level, it can obviously outperform the market last year.</p><p>On the contrary, if you judge that the investment has not been determined to be a \"key transaction\", the sign is:</p><p><b>1. The logic has changed</b></p><p><b>2. The stock price has risen greatly, and I missed the opportunity to take a position</b></p><p>If these two signs appear, it is a \"non-winning and losing hand transaction\", and the investment goal will also change.<b>The most important thing is to prevent it from becoming a \"decisive loss\" in the \"winning and losing hand\" again.</b></p><p>Then the operation idea is obvious,<b>Profits should be realized in time, and losses should be stopped in time.</b></p><p>The only exception is that the expected returns caused by the market style have not been realized, while the fundamental logic of the enterprise remains unchanged.<b>It not only means that the odds become higher, but also means that you need longer to realize this income, which is equivalent to moving the chance of \"winning or losing\" to the next stage, that is, holding shares unchanged.</b></p><p>If the \"winning and losing hand\" benefits have been realized, especially in the short term, usually the stock price increase is already high, so it needs to be regarded as a new investment, reassess the expected return, odds and winning rate, and reallocate the position.</p><p><b>7/7</b></p><p><b>Every investment must meet the criteria of \"winner and loser\"</b></p><p><b>Most people's preference risk is habitually maintained at a fixed level, so they cannot dare to increase their positions to significantly exceed the normal level when a decisive opportunity comes;</b></p><p>The remaining small number of people with high risk appetite often expose the risk of high positions to the opportunity of non-winning and losing hands.</p><p><b>Most investments can become \"winners and losers\"-it can be the maximum profit or the fatal loss, so any investment needs to have a complete plan from the beginning</b>, I'd rather miss it than do something wrong, and I can't trade at will. Before buying, ask yourself a few questions:</p><p>1. Does it conform to your past high-winning company model? What is its maximum upside and downside during your holding?</p><p>2. What kind of position does your calculated expected rate of return match to meet the income requirements of winners and losers?</p><p>3. What is the maximum position calculated by the above odds and winning percentage according to Kelly's formula?</p><p>4. When the maximum position is reached, you will buy in several tranches. How to meet the lower buying cost and the appropriate position at the same time?</p><p>5. Under what circumstances do you judge that it is not a \"winner or loser\" and convert it into a general investment?</p><p>6. If there is a sharp drop halfway, what channels do you have to verify your judgment on fundamentals? What do you do if it falls below the maximum downside you envisage?</p><p>Without apples, Buffett's investment in his later years would become very mediocre. You can think of it as good luck, but you can also think of it as the necessity of the investment system. Without apples, there would be bananas.</p><p>If a big opportunity is a big fish, the investment system is a net,<b>The decisive opportunity seems to come suddenly, but it is actually because you carefully choose every investment according to the standard of \"winner or loser\".</b></p><p></body></html></p>","source":"sxgy","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Night Reading | How to seize major opportunities in investment?</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nNight Reading | How to seize major opportunities in investment?\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">思想钢印</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2023-02-27 23:23</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><html><head></head><body>Odds, winning rates and reasonable positions<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/30ef80cc1d747969b23f9fd049884f65\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"608\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><b>1</b><b>/7</b></p><p><b>\"100-20\" rule</b></p><p>Investors who often have trading records on review in the past period of time must have an experience.<b>The profit and loss of the account are composed of the one or several transactions that make the most or lose the most</b>, the specific transactions are related to the degree of position dispersion and the shareholding cycle.</p><p>This is more cruel than the 28th principle<b>“100-20”</b>Laws:</p><p><b>100% of the excess returns (losses) come from 20% of the transaction volume, and most of the remaining transactions are profit and loss offsets, which are similar to the index</b>, unless it is an ultra-short-term trading or a quantitative fund, basically everyone is like this.</p><p>There are only one or two transactions that make you achieve your annual income goal, and it is also because of the one or two losses that make you unable to achieve your goal. These one or two investments are what we usually say<b>\"Winner and Loser\"</b>。</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/736b32f451aae9adcd9eacbd096ed7b6\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"654\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Although most investments reach a certain point, you realize that it is not a \"winner or loser\", but you don't know it in advance.<b>Therefore, most of your investment decisions should be made carefully with a \"winner-loser\" mentality</b>。</p><p>Understanding the relationship between winning and losing hands and final returns allows you to establish the most basic stock selection criteria:</p><p><b>Assuming that your one-year income target is 15%, and assuming that the market rises by 5% this year, then the winner will bear 10% of the income of the entire account.</b></p><p>Assuming that your maximum position in a single stock is an annual average of 40%, and assuming that each position is held for one year, then there are the following criteria for stock selection that meets the income target:</p><p><b>1. Stocks that let you only dare to average 20% position last year, but the expected rate of return for one year is 50%;</b></p><p><b>2. Stocks that make you dare to hold an average of 30% of the previous year have an expected rate of return of 33% in one year;</b></p><p><b>3. Stocks that make you dare to hold an average of 40% of the previous year have an expected rate of return of 25% per year.</b></p><p>If the excess return of the account is determined by the two highest profitable stocks, then the requirement for this expected rate of return is halved, and so on.</p><p>This basic stock selection criterion includes two simplest constraints:<b>A good investment either makes you dare to take a position (Buffett's<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AAPL\">Apple</a>), or the expected rate of return is high (Bo dilemma reversal)</b>。</p><p>First of all, we have to solve a problem, what is the \"expected rate of return\"?</p><p><b>2/7</b></p><p><b>How to calculate the expected rate of return</b></p><p>Many people have studied the company, calculated the performance growth rate, and the valuation is reasonable. They feel that the company has room to double the target price, so they think that this is a stock that can \"rise by 100% in a year\".</p><p>This statement is wrong. Just now, I only calculated that under the most ideal situation of this stock, the upward space is 100%, and the downward space has not been considered, that is:</p><p>If the positive logic envisaged when buying is not fulfilled, where will the stock price fall?</p><p>In addition, the upward and downward probabilities should be considered to calculate<b>Expected rate of return</b>：</p><p><b>(Upward space * profit probability-downward space * loss probability)/Invested principal</b></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d73beb93ab2af8747252a5509e5ad82f\" tg-width=\"554\" tg-height=\"245\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Assuming that the stock price is 10 yuan, the limit profit and limit loss are 10 yuan and-4 yuan, and the probability is 50% each, then the expected rate of return of this investment is:</p><p>（10*50%-4*50%）/10=30%</p><p>Of course, this is just a simplified formula. In actual investment, within the limit value, there are various possibilities for investment results, corresponding to different probabilities. However, as a standard for individual investors to select stocks, only the upward and downward space of the limit is calculated, and the winning rate is considered to be 50%, which is enough.</p><p>When calculating the expected rate of return, look at<b>Upward space and downward space are actually judging odds</b>。</p><p><b>3/7</b></p><p><b>Odds are a limit</b></p><p>The concept of odds originates from betting, and the odds of betting can be calculated because:</p><p>1. There are only a few results;</p><p>2. Every result is a clear probability.</p><p>But not with stocks--</p><p>As analyzed above, the odds of stock investment are not explicit outcomes, but the limits of outcomes, considering small probability events, i.e.,<b>In the best case, how much can it rise; In the worst case scenario, how much can it fall?</b></p><p>The limit of upward space is that under optimistic circumstances,<b>All the benefits are realized in performance, and the target price corresponding to the highest optimistic valuation range that the market may give</b>, many brokerage research reports will give it, many people think the target price is too high, but this is just an optimistic upper limit of space.</p><p>The limit is downward, and it is necessary to judge if the favorable logic you think has not been fulfilled, the expenses are spent again, and the current product has problems again. In this case, what level is the performance? In the history of the past three years, What is the worst valuation level the market gives in this case.</p><p>It can be seen from this that,<b>Odds is a limit concept, a relatively definite calculable value</b>In contrast, the winning rate is a probability and is vague, so calculating odds is the most critical part of the overall investment process. You need to know the following points about the investment object:</p><p><b>1. Core growth logic and main risk points</b></p><p><b>2. Understand the overall history and trends of the industry and company's operations in the past few years</b></p><p><b>3. The best and worst periods in the past, specific operating data</b></p><p><b>4. The market's views at different stages and the limit valuation given</b></p><p>The more important role of calculating odds is to judge the purchase cost. If the odds of the target you are optimistic about are not enough-this is a very likely situation for a good company, then you can calculate what price it will fall to, and the odds will be appropriate.</p><p>So, how is the winning rate of stock investment determined?</p><p><b>4/7</b></p><p><b>Winning rate is a criterion</b></p><p>As analyzed above, the odds of stock investing are the limit of the outcome and can therefore be calculated, but the winning rate of stock investing is too subjective.</p><p>The current price of a certain stock is 10 yuan, and there are too many possibilities for the stock price in one year.<b>The winning rate describes the probability that the stock price will appear at each price point, which is obviously uncalculable.</b></p><p>What's more, investors can terminate it at any time. Even if it loses money one year later, it does not rule out that you sell it midway when it is profitable. That is to say,<b>You can use strategies to lock in the winning rate</b>。</p><p>So the winning rate here is an approximate probability, that is, one year later, the probability of making a profit or exceeding the increase of the market.</p><p>How to judge this?</p><p>The winning rate of a certain stock investment after one year is a conditional probability, and its<b>Standard expression</b>Is:</p><p><b>If I have bought countless such stocks, what percentage of them will rise after a year?</b></p><p>So strictly speaking, there is no way to calculate the probability of the stock, because each stock is unique.</p><p>But you can change your mind,<b>Stocks are different, but the stock selection criteria can be the same</b>。</p><p>So the actual winning percentage is judged like this:</p><p><b>1. From the past profitable transaction records, summarize a stock selection standard with a higher winning rate and a buying time standard. The more specific the requirements are, the better;</b></p><p><b>2. The more companies meet this standard, the higher the winning rate. Considering the judgment error and deviation, the winning rate can be considered to be 50%.</b></p><p>Stock selection criteria include:</p><p>1. Fixed industry characteristics, such as high prosperity industries, consumer industries, cyclical industries, etc.</p><p>2. Company development stage or market value characteristics</p><p>3. Other constraints such as competitive landscape and industry space do not need to be used, but usually the more specific the better</p><p>4. Growth logic, such as production capacity investment, category expansion, price increase, etc.</p><p>5. Growth rate requirements</p><p>6. Other personal preference requirements</p><p>Selection timing criteria include:</p><p>1. The location of the business inflection point, left or right</p><p>2. Historical valuation position requirements</p><p>3. Catalysts such as financial reports and negative market events</p><p>4. Other personal preference requirements</p><p>In short,<b>Whether the specific winning rate data is changed into \"meeting a certain winning rate standard\" or not, and if it meets a certain established standard, it can be considered as a 50% winning rate.</b></p><p>With the winning rate (actually the stock selection timing standard) and odds, the minimum position that meets the expected rate of return standard is determined according to the method at the beginning.</p><p>So, is there still a maximum position requirement?</p><p>Yes, that's the Kelly formula.</p><p><b>5/7</b></p><p><b>Kelly Formula Requirements for Positions</b></p><p>Many retail investors have the following two bad habits in position control:</p><p>Habit 1. Hold more than 50% of positions in investments with higher winning percentages or higher odds</p><p>Habit 2. Disperse positions, each position is average</p><p>The problem with Habit 2 is obvious. Through the relationship between \"rate of return, expected value, and position\" analyzed earlier, we can see that different opportunities should be given different positions. If you are right, you must increase your position. If you are not sure, but if you have imagination, it is suitable for small positions to try.</p><p><b>\"Good company, good price\" is followed by a \"good position\"</b>, otherwise, your earnings will still be mediocre.</p><p>But Habit 1 also conforms to the previous formula. Theoretically, as long as the expected value is 15%, you can hold a full position in a stock.</p><p>But,<b>Kelly's formula tells you that under no circumstances can you take a full position in a stock</b>。</p><p>If a company on the verge of delisting wants to reorganize, the stock price can be fivefold if it succeeds. If it fails, delisting will be worthless. If you get insider information, there is a 99% probability that it will succeed. How much principal should you bet?</p><p>Obviously, under such superior conditions, you should not bet all your principal. Once you step on the 1% thunder, you will be doomed.</p><p>There is an optimal ratio between positions and odds, which is the following Kelly formula (simplified version for stocks):</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/934fbfcafdecb9475e1087c26d43ad67\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"356\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p>I won't introduce the specific principle. Many articles have introduced it, just talking about its conclusion:</p><p><b>If a stock has a 2: 1 odds for the next year and a 50% winning rate, the best ratio for your average position ceiling is 25%.</b>--The reason why it is the upper limit is that most people are too optimistic about odds and winning percentage.</p><p>If the lower limit of the reasonable position calculated earlier is 33%, this investment opportunity should be temporarily abandoned, or positions should be opened in batches, and positions should be added when it falls to a reasonable price, so that the average buying cost meets the odds and yield requirements.</p><p>So<b>Investment opportunities with odds below 2: 1, which are difficult to meet the requirements of expected rate of return and Kelly's formula at the same time, should be abandoned.</b></p><p>Continue to look at the results of Kelly's formula:<b>If it is 3: 1 odds, that is 33% of the position, and if it is 4: 1 odds, that is 37.5%.</b></p><p>Generally speaking, if the odds exceed 4: 1, it is usually a reorganization, major innovation, cycle reversal or predicament reversal, it is difficult to guarantee a winning rate of more than 50% (unless there is inside information), and the position cannot be raised.<b>Therefore, most opportunities are not suitable to use more than 40% of positions.</b></p><p>According to Kelly's formula,<b>With a 50% chance of winning, no matter how big the odds, the position can't exceed 50%.</b></p><p>So what if you think the winning rate is more than 50%? Since the rise and fall of individual stocks largely depends on the index, and the index is an unexpected factor, no matter how good a company is, it can be regarded as a 50% winning rate within the year.</p><p>The conclusion is that the maximum position is 20% to 40%, and the upward space is required to be more than twice the downward space.</p><p>Obviously, most investments, we will realize at some point that it is not a \"winner\", so what should we do with it?</p><p><b>6/7</b></p><p><b>What if it's not a winner?</b></p><p>Of course, most investments will not be \"winners and losers\" in the end, usually for the following reasons:</p><p><b>Reason 1. The investment logic did not come true as you expected</b></p><p><b>Reason 2. Your buying cost is too high</b></p><p><b>Reason 3. Selling too early during the rise, or failing to seize the opportunity to increase positions at low prices</b></p><p><b>Reason 4. There is a problem with fund allocation and insufficient positions</b></p><p><b>Reason 5. The market style deviates in a direction unfavorable to you</b></p><p>The first two reasons are that your judgment is wrong,<b>The first reason is the wrong judgment of buying logic and upward space, and the second reason is the wrong judgment of odds.</b></p><p><b>The third reason is the operational factor. The \"winner and loser\" is a miracle with great force</b>, there are some companies that you have a lot of faith in, and have fallen to incredible prices at special times, so you must dare to add to the maximum position; In the process of rising heavy positions, you must also be able to hold them.</p><p><b>The fourth reason is the problem of fund allocation</b>When opportunities arise, funds are wasted on \"non-winner\" opportunities.</p><p>The winning and losing mobile phone meetings are unevenly distributed, requiring patience and courage to make decisions. The typical winning and losing mobile phone meetings in 2022 will focus on two stages:</p><p><b>1. Chance of falling out</b>: Most growth stocks in late April, liquor and Hong Kong stocks in late October</p><p><b>2. The opportunity to rise</b>: Coal stocks from January to April, new energy sector from May to August</p><p>As long as there is a certain position to seize any of these opportunities, and there is no major mistake in taking orders at a high level, it can obviously outperform the market last year.</p><p>On the contrary, if you judge that the investment has not been determined to be a \"key transaction\", the sign is:</p><p><b>1. The logic has changed</b></p><p><b>2. The stock price has risen greatly, and I missed the opportunity to take a position</b></p><p>If these two signs appear, it is a \"non-winning and losing hand transaction\", and the investment goal will also change.<b>The most important thing is to prevent it from becoming a \"decisive loss\" in the \"winning and losing hand\" again.</b></p><p>Then the operation idea is obvious,<b>Profits should be realized in time, and losses should be stopped in time.</b></p><p>The only exception is that the expected returns caused by the market style have not been realized, while the fundamental logic of the enterprise remains unchanged.<b>It not only means that the odds become higher, but also means that you need longer to realize this income, which is equivalent to moving the chance of \"winning or losing\" to the next stage, that is, holding shares unchanged.</b></p><p>If the \"winning and losing hand\" benefits have been realized, especially in the short term, usually the stock price increase is already high, so it needs to be regarded as a new investment, reassess the expected return, odds and winning rate, and reallocate the position.</p><p><b>7/7</b></p><p><b>Every investment must meet the criteria of \"winner and loser\"</b></p><p><b>Most people's preference risk is habitually maintained at a fixed level, so they cannot dare to increase their positions to significantly exceed the normal level when a decisive opportunity comes;</b></p><p>The remaining small number of people with high risk appetite often expose the risk of high positions to the opportunity of non-winning and losing hands.</p><p><b>Most investments can become \"winners and losers\"-it can be the maximum profit or the fatal loss, so any investment needs to have a complete plan from the beginning</b>, I'd rather miss it than do something wrong, and I can't trade at will. Before buying, ask yourself a few questions:</p><p>1. Does it conform to your past high-winning company model? What is its maximum upside and downside during your holding?</p><p>2. What kind of position does your calculated expected rate of return match to meet the income requirements of winners and losers?</p><p>3. What is the maximum position calculated by the above odds and winning percentage according to Kelly's formula?</p><p>4. When the maximum position is reached, you will buy in several tranches. How to meet the lower buying cost and the appropriate position at the same time?</p><p>5. Under what circumstances do you judge that it is not a \"winner or loser\" and convert it into a general investment?</p><p>6. If there is a sharp drop halfway, what channels do you have to verify your judgment on fundamentals? What do you do if it falls below the maximum downside you envisage?</p><p>Without apples, Buffett's investment in his later years would become very mediocre. You can think of it as good luck, but you can also think of it as the necessity of the investment system. Without apples, there would be bananas.</p><p>If a big opportunity is a big fish, the investment system is a net,<b>The decisive opportunity seems to come suddenly, but it is actually because you carefully choose every investment according to the standard of \"winner or loser\".</b></p><p></body></html></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> source：<a href=\"https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s/rHZkSN7qNdePt6GnlT85zw\">思想钢印</a></p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e68f18a297e419bae3cc0320b6d8ff4e","relate_stocks":{},"source_url":"https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s/rHZkSN7qNdePt6GnlT85zw","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1116320153","content_text":"赔率、胜率与合理仓位1/7“100-20”规律经常复盘过去一段时间交易纪录的投资者，一定有一个体会，账户盈利和亏损都是由赚得最多或亏得最多的一笔或几笔构成，具体几笔与持仓分散程度和持股周期有关。这是比二八原则更残酷的“100-20”规律：100%的超额收益（亏损）来源于20%的交易额，其余大部分交易都是盈亏相抵和指数差不多，除非是超短线交易或者是量化基金，基本上每个人都是如此。让你达成年度收益目标的交易，就是那么一两笔，让你无法实现目标，也是因为那亏损的一两笔。这一两笔投资，就是平时说的“胜负手”。虽然大部分投资到一定时候，你就意识到它不是“胜负手”，但事先你并不知道，所以你的大部分投资决策都要以“胜负手”的心态谨慎做出。理解了胜负手与最终收益的关系，就可以让你建立一个最基础的选股标准：假设你一年的收益目标是15%，假设大盘今年上涨5%，那么，胜负手就要承担整个账户10%的收益。假设你平时单支股票最大持仓为年平均四成仓，假设每笔持仓一年，那么符合收益目标的选股，有以下的标准：1、让你只敢上年平均20%仓位的股票，但一年预期收益率为50%；2、让你敢上年平均三成仓位的股票，一年预期收益率为33%；3、让你敢上年平均四成仓位的股票，一年预期收益率为25%如果账户超额收益由盈利最高的两支股票决定，那这个预期收益率的要求就减半，以此类推。这个基础选股标准包括两个最简单的约束条件：好的投资，要么让你敢上仓位（巴菲特的苹果），要么预期收益率高（博困境反转）。首先，我们要解决一个问题，什么叫“预期收益率”？2/7如何计算预期收益率很多人研究了公司，计算了业绩增速，估值合理性，觉得公司离目标价有一倍空间，就认为这是一个“一年能涨100%”的股票。这个说法是错的，刚才只计算了这个股票最理想的情况下，向上的空间是100%，还没有考虑向下的空间，即：如果买入时设想的那些利好逻辑没有兑现，那股价会跌到哪里？此外还要考虑向上和向下的概率，才能计算出预期收益率：（向上空间*盈利概率-向下空间*亏损概率）/投入本金假设股价10元，极限盈利和极限亏损为10元和 -4元，概率各为50%，那么这笔投资的预期收益率为：（10*50%-4*50%）/10=30%当然，这只是一个简化公式，实际投资中，在极限值以内，投资结果有各种可能，对应不同的概率，但作为个人投资者选股的标准，只计算极限向上向下空间，并认为胜率为50%，也够了。计算预期收益率时要看向上空间和向下空间，实际上就是判断赔率。3/7赔率是一个极限赔率的概念源自博彩，博彩的赔率之所以能够计算出来，是因为：1、结果就几个；2、每一个结果都是明确的概率。但股票不是这样——正如上面分析的，股票投资的赔率不是明确的结果，而是结果的极限，考虑的是小概率事件，即，在最好的情况下，能涨多少；最差的情况下，能跌多少？极限向上空间，就是乐观情况下，所有的利好都兑现在业绩上，市场可能给予的最高乐观估值区间对应的目标价，很多券商研报都会给出，很多人觉得目标价太高，但这只是一个乐观的空间上限而已。极限向下空间，需要判断如果你认为的那些利好逻辑都没有兑现，费用又花出去了，现在的产品又出现了问题，这种情况下，业绩大概在什么水平，近三年的历史中，这种情况下市场最差给什么样的估值水平。从这一点可以看出，赔率是极限概念，是一个相对确定的可计算的值，相比之下，胜率是一个概率，是模糊的，所以计算赔率是整体投资过程中最关键的一环，需要你对投资对象了解以下几点：1、核心增长逻辑和主要风险点2、了解行业和公司过去几年经营的整体历程和趋势3、过去最好和最差的时期，经营的具体数据4、市场在不同阶段的看法，给出的极限估值计算赔率更重要的作用是判断买入成本，如果你看好的标的赔率不够——这是好公司非常可能出现的情况，那你就可以算一算，要跌到什么价格，赔率就合适了。那么，股票投资的胜率又是如何确定的呢？4/7胜率是一个标准正如上面分析的，股票投资的赔率是结果的极限，因此可以被计算，但股票投资的胜率就太主观了。某股票现价10元， 1年后的股价可能性实在是太多，胜率就是描述股价在每一个价位上出现的概率，这显然是无法计算的。更何况，投资者可以随时终止，就算一年后它是亏的，也不排除你中途在盈利的时候卖出，也就是说，你可以用策略去锁定胜率。所以这里的胜率是一个近似的概率，即一年后，盈利或超过大盘涨幅的概率。这怎么判断呢？某一个股票投资一年后的胜率，是一个条件概率，它的标准表达是：如果我买过无数支这样的股票，它们中一年后上涨的情况占比是多少？所以严格的说，没有办法计算该股票的概率，因为每一支股票都是独一无二的。但你可改变一下思路，股票是不一样的，但选股标准可以是一样的。所以实际胜率是这样判断的：1、从过去赚钱的交易记录中，总结出一个胜率较高的选股标准和买入时点的标准，要求越具体越好；2、越符合这个标准的公司，越拥有较高的胜率，考虑到判断误差和偏差，就可以认为胜率为50%。选股标准包括：1、固定的行业特征，比如高景气度行业，消费行业，周期行业等等2、公司发展阶段或市值特征3、竞争格局、行业空间等其他约束条件，可以不用，但通常越具体越好4、成长逻辑，比如产能投放，品类扩张，价格上涨，等等5、增速要求6、其他个人喜好的要求选择时机标准包括：1、经营拐点的位置，左侧或右侧2、历史估值位置要求3、财报、市场利空事件冲击等催化剂4、其他个人喜好的要求总之，把具体的胜率数据变成“符合某个胜率的标准”的是与否，符合某一个既定标准的，就可以认为是50%胜率。有了胜率（实际上是选股择时标准）和赔率，就按开头的方法计算，确定符合预期收益率标准的最低仓位了。那么，是不是还有最大仓位要求呢？有的，那就是凯利公式。5/7凯利公式对仓位的要求很多散户在仓位控制上有下面两个不太好的习惯：习惯1、在胜率较高或赔率较高的投资上，持有超过50%的仓位习惯2、分散持仓，每一笔持仓都很平均习惯2的问题很明显，通过前面分析的“收益率、期待值、仓位”三者的关系，可以看到，不同的机会应该给予不同的仓位，看准了，就要加大仓位干，看不准，但有想象力，才适合小仓位试。“好公司，好价格”后面还要再加一个“好仓位”，否则，你的收益仍然会很平庸。但习惯1也符合前面的公式，理论上说，只要15%的期待值，就可以全仓一个股票。但是，凯利公式告诉你，任何情况下，都不能全仓一个股票。假如一家濒临退市的公司要重组，如果成功股价可以翻五倍，如果失败就退市一文不值，你得到内线消息，99%的概率会成功，你应该押多少本金呢？显然在这样优越的条件下，你也不应该押上全部的本金，一旦你踩上1%的雷，就万劫不复了。仓位和赔率胜率本身是有最优比例的，就是下面的凯利公式（针对股票的简化版）：具体的原理我就不介绍了，很多文章都有介绍，只说它的结论：如果一支股票未来一年是2:1的赔率，50%的胜率，你的平均仓位上限最佳比例是25%——之所以是上限，需要考虑到大部分人对赔率和胜率判断过于乐观。如果前面计算出的合理仓位下限是33%，这笔投资机会就应该被暂时放弃，或者分批建仓，等跌到合理价格再加仓，让平均买入成本符合赔率和收益率要求。所以低于2:1赔率的投资机会，很难同时满足预期收益率和凯利公式的要求，都应该被放弃。继续看凯利公式的结果：如果是3:1的赔率，那就是33%的仓位，如果是4:1的赔率，那就是37.5%。一般而言，超过4:1的赔率，通常是博重组、重大创新、周期反转或困境反转，胜率就很难保证50%以上（除非有内幕消息），仓位也提不上去，所以绝大部分机会都不宜用4成以上的仓位。根据凯利公式，在50%的胜率机会下，无论多么大的赔率，仓位都不能超过50%。那么如果你认为胜率超过50%呢？由于个股的涨跌很大程度上取决于指数，而指数是预期之外的因素，所以再优秀的公司，年度以内都可以看成50%的胜率。结论就是，最大仓位就是两成到四成仓位，并要求向上空间是向下空间的2倍以上。很明显，大部分投资，我们都会在某一个时刻意识到它不是“胜负手”，那我们该怎么处理呢？6/7不是胜负手怎么办？当然，大部分投资最终都不会是“胜负手”，通常有以下原因：原因1、投资逻辑没有如你预期的实现原因2、你的买入成本过高原因3、上涨过程中过早卖出，或没有抓住低价加仓的机会原因4、资金分配出问题，仓位不够原因5、市场风格向对你不利的方向偏离前两个原因是你判断错误，原因一是买入逻辑和向上空间判断失误，原因二是赔率判断失误。原因三是操作的因素，“胜负手”是大力出奇迹，有一些你很有信仰的公司，在特殊时候跌到匪夷所思的价格，要敢于加到最大仓位；在重仓上涨的过程中，也要拿得住。原因四是资金分配的问题，在机会出现时，资金浪费在“非胜负手”的机会上。胜负手机会是分布不均的，需要有耐心，也要敢于决策，2022年典型的胜负手机会，集中出现在两个阶段：1、跌出来的机会：4月下旬的大部分成长股，10月下旬的白酒和港股2、涨出来的机会：1~4月的煤炭股，5~8月的新能源板块只要有一定仓位抓住其中的任何一个机会，并且没有高位接盘的重大错误，去年都可以明显跑赢大盘。相反，如果你判断该笔投资已确定无法成为“关键交易”，标志在于：1、逻辑变了2、股价涨幅已大，错过上仓位的时机如果出现了这两个标志，就是“非胜负手交易”，投资目标也要变，最重要的是防止它重新变成“胜负手”中的“决定性亏损”。那么操作思路就很明显了，盈利要及时兑现，亏损要及时止损。唯一例外的原因五，市场风格造成的预期收益没有实现，而企业基本面逻辑不变，它既代表赔率变高，也意味着你需要更长的时间去实现这个收益，相当于把“胜负手”的机会移到下一阶段，那就是持股不变。如果已经实现了“胜负手”的收益，特别是短期内实现，通常股价涨幅已经偏高，就需要当成一笔新的投资，重新评估预期收益、赔率和胜率，重新分配仓位。7/7每一笔投资都要符合“胜负手”的标准大部分人的偏好风险都习惯性地维持在一个固定的水平，因而无法在决定性的机会来临时，敢于把仓位加到大幅超过正常水平；剩下的小部分风险偏好较高的人，又常常会把高仓位风险暴露在非胜负手的机会上。大部分投资都可能成为“胜负手”——可能是最大盈利，也可能是致命亏损，所以任何投资从一开始就需要有完整计划，宁可错过，不可做错，不能随意交易，在买入之前，要问自己几个问题：1、它是否符合你过去的高胜率公司模型？它在你的持股期间的最大上升空间和下跌空间是多少？2、你算出来的预期收益率与什么样的仓位配合，才符合胜负手的收益要求？3、上述赔率和胜率根据凯利公式算出来的最大仓位是多少？4、达到最大仓位，你将分几笔买入，如何同时满足较低的买入成本和合适的仓位？5、什么情况下，你判断它不是“胜负手”，转换成一般的投资？6、如果中途大跌，你有什么渠道去验证你对基本面的判断？如果跌破你设想的最大下跌空间，你怎么办？如果没有苹果，巴菲特晚年的投资就变得非常平庸，你可以认为是好运气，但也可以认为是投资体系的必然，没有苹果也会有香蕉。如果说大机会是一条大鱼，投资体系就是一张网，决定性的机会看似突如其来，实际上是因为你每一笔投资都用“胜负手”的标准去谨慎选择。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2173,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":651814892,"gmtCreate":1681742212917,"gmtModify":1681742212917,"author":{"id":"180489801557520","authorId":"180489801557520","name":"WstreetBoy","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/67ffcee2a6d73f35b1d68c916a7e6856","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"180489801557520","idStr":"180489801557520"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a 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