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寻找未被市场了解的价值股
2023-10-10
$中国海洋石油(00883)$
寻找未被市场了解的价值股
2021-03-18
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Several Key Positions of U.S. Debt: U.S. Stocks Are Dangerous to This Number
寻找未被市场了解的价值股
2021-02-08
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@小虎周报:一周IPO观察：SaaS赴美第一股容联云来袭，大波医药股过港交所聆讯
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href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/00883\">$中国海洋石油(00883)$ </a>","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/00883\">$中国海洋石油(00883)$ </a>","text":"$中国海洋石油(00883)$","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/228803862405304","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2338,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":327889464,"gmtCreate":1616076242058,"gmtModify":1704790613958,"author":{"id":"28157621219307","authorId":"28157621219307","name":"寻找未被市场了解的价值股","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/db5ac23c1de3f9f7e6ede57af9eef027","crmLevel":9,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"28157621219307","authorIdStr":"28157621219307"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"(null)","listText":"(null)","text":"(null)","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/327889464","repostId":"1183811952","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1183811952","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1616052511,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1183811952?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2021-03-18 15:28","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"Several Key Positions of U.S. Debt: U.S. Stocks Are Dangerous to This Number","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1183811952","media":"雪涛宏观笔记","summary":"在利率上升到更高水平之前，美联储可能只会进行鸽派喊话。","content":"<p>Author: Song Xuetao</p><p>Since February, the 10Y interest rate of U.S. bonds has risen from 1.0%-1.1% to 1.5%-1.6%, and the increase in one and a half months (February-mid-March) (~50bp) is equivalent to the sum of the previous six months (August last year-January this year). The rise in real interest rates has played a major role: since February, the 10Y real interest rate of U.S. bonds has risen by 40bp, while (breakeven) inflation expectations have only risen by 13bp, remaining around 2.2%.</p><p><table><tbody><tr><td>Figure 1: Real Interest Rates vs. Inflation Expectations</p><p></td></tr><tr><td><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7832b057273488212cecefac469537ac\" tg-width=\"723\" tg-height=\"372\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p></td></tr><tr><td>Source: Wind, Tianfeng Securities Research Institute</p><p></td></tr></tbody></table><b>The recovery in real interest rates reflects expected pricing on both economic and policy fronts.</b>On the economic side, the U.S. has accelerated vaccination, and the economy and employment have accelerated improvement. According to the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC), more than 100 million doses have been administered in the United States. The unemployment rate for non-farm payrolls continued to fall to 6.2% in February. In terms of policy, the 1.9 trillion fiscal plan increased supply, and the Federal Reserve remained \"calm\" about the recovery of interest rates. Since August last year, the Fed's monthly Treasury Bond purchases have remained basically unchanged, remaining around $80 billion. In an interview on March 4th, Powell also said that \"the volatility of financial markets has not yet affected the Fed's goals (long-term employment and average inflation)\".</p><p><b>From the above two aspects, the recovery of real interest rates will continue.</b>Until the slope of economic recovery and the Fed's attitude toward interest rate recovery have not changed, the trend of real interest rate recovery will not change. But if you stretch the time to the past 20 years, the long-term trend of real interest rates is downward. Before 2008, the level of real interest rate was 2%; After 2008, the real interest rate has been between 0% and 1% for a long time; Pre-pandemic, real interest rates were already around 0%.</p><p>After stripping off the long-term trend, the current real interest rate (around-0.66%) remains at historically low levels (17.4% quantile). Considering that the K-shaped economic recovery and the long-term easing trend of the central bank are difficult to reverse,<b>Expect the rebound high in real interest rates to be around 0.2%-0.3%</b>, corresponding to the 70%-80% historical quantile, which is approximately equal to the 2019 average.</p><p><table><tbody><tr><td>Figure 2: U.S. Debt the 10 year real rate, Cyclical Items and Trend Items</p><p></td></tr><tr><td><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4f516bc3a6820f2d007f3f6d1430b73e\" tg-width=\"703\" tg-height=\"415\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p></td></tr><tr><td>Source: Wind, Tianfeng Securities Research Institute</p><p></td></tr></tbody></table><b>Investors' concerns about long-term growth and inflation-beating expectations are not profound.</b>Since the beginning of the year, the duration stages in which the term premium of U.S. debt has increased the most are 1~2 years and 2~3 years, and then decrease in turn, reflecting that the market's expectations for short-term recovery and monetary easing convergence have exceeded the medium and long-term.</p><p><table><tbody><tr><td>Figure 3: Year-to-date variation of term premium by stage</p><p></td></tr><tr><td><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/db9c7dd3cbdbaeef45082ec9ee3db419\" tg-width=\"919\" tg-height=\"541\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p></td></tr><tr><td>Source: New York Fed, Tianfeng Securities Institute</p><p></td></tr></tbody></table><b>The current inflation expectation is already at an all-time high (99.5% percentile).</b>The recovery of shale oil production capacity in the United States is less than expected, giving OPEC room to continue to reduce production and maintain high oil prices. In the first half of the year, oil prices may fluctuate violently at a high level, but inflation expectations may fall with oil prices in the second half of the year. Judging from previous rounds of historical experience, inflation expectations are about half a year ahead of the real interest rate. When the real interest rate peaks, inflation expectations have fallen back to around the median. It is expected that when real interest rates peak in this round, inflation expectations will fall back to about 1.7%-1.8%,<b>The high point corresponding to this round of U.S. bond 10Y interest rate is about 1.9%-2.1%.</b></p><p><table><tbody><tr><td>Figure 4: Breakeven Inflation Expectations, Cyclical Terms and Trend Terms</p><p></td></tr><tr><td><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/00fd610549bf4fde6fa8b04b4d92bbfe\" tg-width=\"966\" tg-height=\"535\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p></td></tr><tr><td>Source: Wind, Tianfeng Securities Research Institute</p><p></td></tr></tbody></table>On February 11th, we used the three-factor model to calculate in \"How much upside is there in US Treasury yields\" and found that: (1) By the end of this year, the fluctuation range of the 10Y interest rate of U.S. bonds is 1.38%-1.71%; (2) The high point of US Treasury yields during the year is around 1.8%, and inflation exceeds expectations and the Fed's early reduction of QE (or transmission of signals) are the main upside risks; (3) March-May is the stage when interest rates rise the fastest, and they enter a high fluctuation after May.</p><p>In fact, the 10Y interest rate of U.S. bonds rose to 1.5%-1.6% on March 5th, and the rising rate exceeded our expectations at that time. At present,<b>The time and space for interest rate upside are not sufficient yet. The upside is still expected to be 20-30bp during the year, and the operating range will be 1.5%-1.8% after May</b>(Low term premium scenario)<b>。 However, the fastest stage of interest rate recovery may have been experienced, and the subsequent upward slope will slow down and the shock will increase.</b></p><p><table><tbody><tr><td>Figure 5: Three-factor model predicts the trend of U.S. debt during the year</p><p></td></tr><tr><td><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6bea5595310b330b3ab6a72b7a51a6b0\" tg-width=\"976\" tg-height=\"635\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p></td></tr><tr><td>Source: Bloomberg, Tianfeng Securities Research Institute</p><p></td></tr></tbody></table><b>For stocks, a rise in real interest rates means a rise in real financing costs, and the pressure is greater than the rise in inflation expectations.</b>The empirical results since 2003 show that the correlation coefficient between the 10Y real interest rate of U.S. bonds and the S&P 500 P/E is-0.41. Therefore, after the real interest rate of U.S. debt has rebounded rapidly since February, especially after the 10Y interest rate of U.S. debt has quickly broken through 1.3%, the high valuation sector of U.S. stocks has undergone a significant adjustment. From February 1-March 12, Dow Jones and Nasdaq gained 9.3% and 1.9%, respectively, and MSCI Value and Growth gained 10.3% and 1.0%, respectively.</p><p><table><tbody><tr><td>Figure 6: Time series of valuation levels of U.S. stocks and 10-year Treasury Bond real interest rate</p><p></td></tr><tr><td><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/520c16190d472f7ed7a734d2070b40f9\" tg-width=\"909\" tg-height=\"543\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p></td></tr><tr><td>Source: Bloomberg, Tianfeng Securities Research Institute</p><p></td></tr></tbody></table><b>From the perspective of the risk pricing level of U.S. stocks, there are several key positions of U.S. debt that correspond to different levels of risk status in the U.S. stock market.</b></p><p><b>The first key position is 1.3%-1.5%</b>, corresponding to the static risk premium of the S&P 500 that is 1.5 standard deviations below the historical quantile. This position is the pressure level of Nasdaq, which corresponds to the structural market of U.S. value stocks. High-valuation growth stocks fluctuate and fall, low-valuation value stocks are repaired, and rising interest rates are good for finance.</p><p><b>The second key position is 1.7%-1.8%</b>, corresponding to the dynamic risk premium of the S&P 500 that is 1.5 standard deviations below the historical quantile, while the static risk premium of the Dow Jones Industrial Index is 1.0 standard deviations below the historical quantile. This position is the pressure level of S&P. Once it breaks through, the volatility will rise obviously. At this time, the Fed may intervene in the rising rate of the long-term interest rate of U.S. debt.</p><p><b>The third key position is 2.0%-2.1%</b>, corresponding to the top range of the upward trend of this round of US Treasury yields that we predicted earlier. Above this position is a stress test for fiscal repayment and credit markets. For US stocks, it may trigger greater volatility release, and Dow Jones may turn to a shock decline. At that time, the Fed's tool selection will be crucial to the market trend.</p><p><table><tbody><tr><td>Table 1: Long-term interest rate of U.S. bonds corresponds to standard deviation of risk premium of U.S. stocks</p><p></td></tr><tr><td><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8cd7ecc59a787c98d543c5a98a75e168\" tg-width=\"847\" tg-height=\"448\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p></td></tr><tr><td>Source: Bloomberg, Tianfeng Securities Research Institute</p><p></td></tr></tbody></table><b>The Fed remains almost omnipotent in dealing with the \"disorder\" of short-term financial markets.</b>There are currently a variety of tools to choose from for flattening rising interest rates, ranked from weak to strong: (1) stronger dovish shouting, (2) direct bond purchases through the New York Fed, (3) distortion operations (OT), (4) scaling up QE, and (5) yield curve control (YCC) with target rate commitments.</p><p>In an interview on March 4, Powell said that \"the current volatility in financial markets has not affected the Fed's goals,\" which means<b>When the U.S. debt is around 1.5%, the Fed will let interest rates continue to rise, and volatility is not a problem. Until interest rates rise to higher levels, the Fed may only make a dovish shout, and is unlikely to even take a stand on extending the easing of SLR (bank supplemental leverage ratio).</b></p><p><b>When U.S. bonds rise to 1.7%-1.8%, the volatility of U.S. stocks may increase significantly</b>This is a key position to observe the operations of the Fed,<b>It is possible that the Fed may consider slowing the pace of interest rate rises by expanding bond purchases or performing distortions. If the interest rate rises to 2.0%-2.1%, not only will the pressure of fiscal debt service be greater, but a new round of risks may also begin to appear in the credit market. At that time, the Fed may consider delaying QE tapering and even promise yield curve control (YCC).</b></p>","source":"xthgbj","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Several Key Positions of U.S. Debt: U.S. Stocks Are Dangerous to This Number</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nSeveral Key Positions of U.S. Debt: U.S. Stocks Are Dangerous to This Number\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">雪涛宏观笔记</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-03-18 15:28</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>Author: Song Xuetao</p><p>Since February, the 10Y interest rate of U.S. bonds has risen from 1.0%-1.1% to 1.5%-1.6%, and the increase in one and a half months (February-mid-March) (~50bp) is equivalent to the sum of the previous six months (August last year-January this year). The rise in real interest rates has played a major role: since February, the 10Y real interest rate of U.S. bonds has risen by 40bp, while (breakeven) inflation expectations have only risen by 13bp, remaining around 2.2%.</p><p><table><tbody><tr><td>Figure 1: Real Interest Rates vs. Inflation Expectations</p><p></td></tr><tr><td><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7832b057273488212cecefac469537ac\" tg-width=\"723\" tg-height=\"372\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p></td></tr><tr><td>Source: Wind, Tianfeng Securities Research Institute</p><p></td></tr></tbody></table><b>The recovery in real interest rates reflects expected pricing on both economic and policy fronts.</b>On the economic side, the U.S. has accelerated vaccination, and the economy and employment have accelerated improvement. According to the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC), more than 100 million doses have been administered in the United States. The unemployment rate for non-farm payrolls continued to fall to 6.2% in February. In terms of policy, the 1.9 trillion fiscal plan increased supply, and the Federal Reserve remained \"calm\" about the recovery of interest rates. Since August last year, the Fed's monthly Treasury Bond purchases have remained basically unchanged, remaining around $80 billion. In an interview on March 4th, Powell also said that \"the volatility of financial markets has not yet affected the Fed's goals (long-term employment and average inflation)\".</p><p><b>From the above two aspects, the recovery of real interest rates will continue.</b>Until the slope of economic recovery and the Fed's attitude toward interest rate recovery have not changed, the trend of real interest rate recovery will not change. But if you stretch the time to the past 20 years, the long-term trend of real interest rates is downward. Before 2008, the level of real interest rate was 2%; After 2008, the real interest rate has been between 0% and 1% for a long time; Pre-pandemic, real interest rates were already around 0%.</p><p>After stripping off the long-term trend, the current real interest rate (around-0.66%) remains at historically low levels (17.4% quantile). Considering that the K-shaped economic recovery and the long-term easing trend of the central bank are difficult to reverse,<b>Expect the rebound high in real interest rates to be around 0.2%-0.3%</b>, corresponding to the 70%-80% historical quantile, which is approximately equal to the 2019 average.</p><p><table><tbody><tr><td>Figure 2: U.S. Debt the 10 year real rate, Cyclical Items and Trend Items</p><p></td></tr><tr><td><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4f516bc3a6820f2d007f3f6d1430b73e\" tg-width=\"703\" tg-height=\"415\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p></td></tr><tr><td>Source: Wind, Tianfeng Securities Research Institute</p><p></td></tr></tbody></table><b>Investors' concerns about long-term growth and inflation-beating expectations are not profound.</b>Since the beginning of the year, the duration stages in which the term premium of U.S. debt has increased the most are 1~2 years and 2~3 years, and then decrease in turn, reflecting that the market's expectations for short-term recovery and monetary easing convergence have exceeded the medium and long-term.</p><p><table><tbody><tr><td>Figure 3: Year-to-date variation of term premium by stage</p><p></td></tr><tr><td><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/db9c7dd3cbdbaeef45082ec9ee3db419\" tg-width=\"919\" tg-height=\"541\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p></td></tr><tr><td>Source: New York Fed, Tianfeng Securities Institute</p><p></td></tr></tbody></table><b>The current inflation expectation is already at an all-time high (99.5% percentile).</b>The recovery of shale oil production capacity in the United States is less than expected, giving OPEC room to continue to reduce production and maintain high oil prices. In the first half of the year, oil prices may fluctuate violently at a high level, but inflation expectations may fall with oil prices in the second half of the year. Judging from previous rounds of historical experience, inflation expectations are about half a year ahead of the real interest rate. When the real interest rate peaks, inflation expectations have fallen back to around the median. It is expected that when real interest rates peak in this round, inflation expectations will fall back to about 1.7%-1.8%,<b>The high point corresponding to this round of U.S. bond 10Y interest rate is about 1.9%-2.1%.</b></p><p><table><tbody><tr><td>Figure 4: Breakeven Inflation Expectations, Cyclical Terms and Trend Terms</p><p></td></tr><tr><td><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/00fd610549bf4fde6fa8b04b4d92bbfe\" tg-width=\"966\" tg-height=\"535\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p></td></tr><tr><td>Source: Wind, Tianfeng Securities Research Institute</p><p></td></tr></tbody></table>On February 11th, we used the three-factor model to calculate in \"How much upside is there in US Treasury yields\" and found that: (1) By the end of this year, the fluctuation range of the 10Y interest rate of U.S. bonds is 1.38%-1.71%; (2) The high point of US Treasury yields during the year is around 1.8%, and inflation exceeds expectations and the Fed's early reduction of QE (or transmission of signals) are the main upside risks; (3) March-May is the stage when interest rates rise the fastest, and they enter a high fluctuation after May.</p><p>In fact, the 10Y interest rate of U.S. bonds rose to 1.5%-1.6% on March 5th, and the rising rate exceeded our expectations at that time. At present,<b>The time and space for interest rate upside are not sufficient yet. The upside is still expected to be 20-30bp during the year, and the operating range will be 1.5%-1.8% after May</b>(Low term premium scenario)<b>。 However, the fastest stage of interest rate recovery may have been experienced, and the subsequent upward slope will slow down and the shock will increase.</b></p><p><table><tbody><tr><td>Figure 5: Three-factor model predicts the trend of U.S. debt during the year</p><p></td></tr><tr><td><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6bea5595310b330b3ab6a72b7a51a6b0\" tg-width=\"976\" tg-height=\"635\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p></td></tr><tr><td>Source: Bloomberg, Tianfeng Securities Research Institute</p><p></td></tr></tbody></table><b>For stocks, a rise in real interest rates means a rise in real financing costs, and the pressure is greater than the rise in inflation expectations.</b>The empirical results since 2003 show that the correlation coefficient between the 10Y real interest rate of U.S. bonds and the S&P 500 P/E is-0.41. Therefore, after the real interest rate of U.S. debt has rebounded rapidly since February, especially after the 10Y interest rate of U.S. debt has quickly broken through 1.3%, the high valuation sector of U.S. stocks has undergone a significant adjustment. From February 1-March 12, Dow Jones and Nasdaq gained 9.3% and 1.9%, respectively, and MSCI Value and Growth gained 10.3% and 1.0%, respectively.</p><p><table><tbody><tr><td>Figure 6: Time series of valuation levels of U.S. stocks and 10-year Treasury Bond real interest rate</p><p></td></tr><tr><td><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/520c16190d472f7ed7a734d2070b40f9\" tg-width=\"909\" tg-height=\"543\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p></td></tr><tr><td>Source: Bloomberg, Tianfeng Securities Research Institute</p><p></td></tr></tbody></table><b>From the perspective of the risk pricing level of U.S. stocks, there are several key positions of U.S. debt that correspond to different levels of risk status in the U.S. stock market.</b></p><p><b>The first key position is 1.3%-1.5%</b>, corresponding to the static risk premium of the S&P 500 that is 1.5 standard deviations below the historical quantile. This position is the pressure level of Nasdaq, which corresponds to the structural market of U.S. value stocks. High-valuation growth stocks fluctuate and fall, low-valuation value stocks are repaired, and rising interest rates are good for finance.</p><p><b>The second key position is 1.7%-1.8%</b>, corresponding to the dynamic risk premium of the S&P 500 that is 1.5 standard deviations below the historical quantile, while the static risk premium of the Dow Jones Industrial Index is 1.0 standard deviations below the historical quantile. This position is the pressure level of S&P. Once it breaks through, the volatility will rise obviously. At this time, the Fed may intervene in the rising rate of the long-term interest rate of U.S. debt.</p><p><b>The third key position is 2.0%-2.1%</b>, corresponding to the top range of the upward trend of this round of US Treasury yields that we predicted earlier. Above this position is a stress test for fiscal repayment and credit markets. For US stocks, it may trigger greater volatility release, and Dow Jones may turn to a shock decline. At that time, the Fed's tool selection will be crucial to the market trend.</p><p><table><tbody><tr><td>Table 1: Long-term interest rate of U.S. bonds corresponds to standard deviation of risk premium of U.S. stocks</p><p></td></tr><tr><td><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8cd7ecc59a787c98d543c5a98a75e168\" tg-width=\"847\" tg-height=\"448\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p></td></tr><tr><td>Source: Bloomberg, Tianfeng Securities Research Institute</p><p></td></tr></tbody></table><b>The Fed remains almost omnipotent in dealing with the \"disorder\" of short-term financial markets.</b>There are currently a variety of tools to choose from for flattening rising interest rates, ranked from weak to strong: (1) stronger dovish shouting, (2) direct bond purchases through the New York Fed, (3) distortion operations (OT), (4) scaling up QE, and (5) yield curve control (YCC) with target rate commitments.</p><p>In an interview on March 4, Powell said that \"the current volatility in financial markets has not affected the Fed's goals,\" which means<b>When the U.S. debt is around 1.5%, the Fed will let interest rates continue to rise, and volatility is not a problem. Until interest rates rise to higher levels, the Fed may only make a dovish shout, and is unlikely to even take a stand on extending the easing of SLR (bank supplemental leverage ratio).</b></p><p><b>When U.S. bonds rise to 1.7%-1.8%, the volatility of U.S. stocks may increase significantly</b>This is a key position to observe the operations of the Fed,<b>It is possible that the Fed may consider slowing the pace of interest rate rises by expanding bond purchases or performing distortions. If the interest rate rises to 2.0%-2.1%, not only will the pressure of fiscal debt service be greater, but a new round of risks may also begin to appear in the credit market. At that time, the Fed may consider delaying QE tapering and even promise yield curve control (YCC).</b></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> source：<a href=\"https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s/3l5QZb2TcPnxed4aoAsMAw\">雪涛宏观笔记</a></p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e54aaddff302c2c8e07be296a486ea34","relate_stocks":{".DJI":"道琼斯"},"source_url":"https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s/3l5QZb2TcPnxed4aoAsMAw","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1183811952","content_text":"作者：宋雪涛\n2月以来，美债10Y利率从1.0%-1.1%上行到1.5%-1.6%，1个半月（2月-3月中）的上升幅度（~50bp）相当于之前6个月（去年8月-今年1月）的总和。实际利率的上升起了主要作用：2月以来美债10Y实际利率上升了40bp，而（盈亏平衡）通胀预期只上升了13bp，维持在2.2%附近。\n\n\n\n图1：实际利率与通胀预期\n\n\n\n\n\n资料来源：Wind，天风证券研究所\n\n\n\n实际利率的回升反映了经济和政策两个方面的预期定价。经济方面是美国疫苗加速接种，经济和就业加速改善。根据美国疾控中心（CDC）的数据，美国已经接种超过1亿剂。2月非农就业失业率继续下降至6.2%。政策方面是1.9万亿财政计划增加供给，联储对利率回升仍然保持「淡定」。去年8月以来，美联储每月国债购买量基本没有变化，维持在800亿美元上下。3月4日鲍威尔接受采访时也说「金融市场波动还没有到影响联储目标（长期就业和平均通胀）的程度」。\n从以上两方面来看，实际利率的回升还会继续。在经济复苏的斜率和联储对于利率回升的态度没有发生变化之前，实际利率回升的趋势不会改变。但如果把时间拉长到过去20年，实际利率的长期趋势是向下的。2008年之前，实际利率的水平是2%；而2008年之后，实际利率长期位于0%-1%之间；疫情前，实际利率已经在0%附近。\n剥离长期趋势后，当前实际利率（-0.66%左右）仍然处在历史较低水平（17.4%分位）。考虑到经济K型复苏和央行长时间宽松的趋势难以逆转，预计实际利率的反弹高点大约在0.2%-0.3%左右，对应70%-80%历史分位，约等于2019年的平均水平。\n\n\n\n图2：美债10年期实际利率、周期项和趋势项\n\n\n\n\n\n资料来源：Wind，天风证券研究所\n\n\n\n投资者对于长期增长和通胀超预期的担忧并不深刻。年初至今，美债期限溢价上升幅度最大的久期阶段是1~2年和2~3年，之后依次递减，反映市场对于短期复苏和货币宽松收敛的预期定价超过了中长期。\n\n\n\n图3：年初至今各阶段期限溢价变动幅度\n\n\n\n\n\n资料来源：纽约联储，天风证券研究所\n\n\n\n当前通胀预期已经处在历史高位（99.5%分位）。美国页岩油产能恢复不及预期给了OPEC继续减产维持高油价的空间，上半年油价可能在高位剧烈震荡，但下半年通胀预期可能随油价回落。从之前几轮历史经验来看，通胀预期领先实际利率半年左右，实际利率见顶时，通胀预期已经回落至中位数附近。预计本轮实际利率见顶时，通胀预期将回落至1.7%-1.8%左右，对应本轮美债10Y利率的高点大约为1.9%-2.1%。\n\n\n\n图4：盈亏平衡通胀预期、周期项和趋势项\n\n\n\n\n\n资料来源：Wind，天风证券研究所\n\n\n\n我们2月11日在《美债利率上行空间有多少》中用三因子模型测算发现：（1）到今年年底，美债10Y利率的波动区间为1.38%-1.71%；（2）美债利率年内高点在1.8%左右，通胀超预期和联储提前缩减QE（或传递信号）是主要上行风险；（3）3-5月是利率上升最快的阶段，5月之后进入高位震荡。\n实际上美债10Y利率在3月5日升至1.5%-1.6%，上升速度超出了我们当时预期。目前来看，利率上行的时间和空间尚不充分，年内上升空间预计仍有20-30bp，5月后运行区间将位于1.5%-1.8%（低期限溢价情形）。但是利率回升最快的阶段可能已经经历，后续上升斜率将放缓，震荡将加大。\n\n\n\n图5：三因子模型预测年内美债走势\n\n\n\n\n\n资料来源：Bloomberg，天风证券研究所\n\n\n\n对于股票而言，实际利率上升意味着实际融资成本抬升，压力大于通胀预期回升。2003年以来的实证结果显示，美债10Y实际利率与标普500市盈率的相关系数为-0.41。因此2月以来美债实际利率快速回升后，特别是美债10Y利率迅速突破1.3%后，美股的高估值板块出现明显调整。2月1日-3月12日，道琼斯和纳斯达克的涨幅分别是9.3%和1.9%，MSCI价值和成长的涨幅分别是10.3%和1.0%。\n\n\n\n图6：美股估值水平时间序列及10年期国债实际利率\n\n\n\n\n\n资料来源：Bloomberg，天风证券研究所\n\n\n\n从美股的风险定价水平来看，美债有几个关键位置对应了美股市场不同等级的风险状态。\n第一个关键位置是1.3%-1.5%，对应了标普500的静态风险溢价低于历史分位数1.5个标准差。这个位置是纳斯达克的压力位，对应的是美股价值股的结构性行情，高估值成长股震荡下跌，低估值价值股修复，利率上升利好金融。\n第二个关键位置是1.7%-1.8%，对应了标普500的动态风险溢价低于历史分位数1.5个标准差，同时道琼斯工业指数的静态风险溢价低于历史分位数1.0个标准差。这个位置是标普的压力位，一旦突破波动率将明显上升，此时联储可能出手干预美债长端利率的上升速度。\n第三个关键位置是2.0%-2.1%，对应了我们前面预测的本轮美债利率上行的顶部区间。这个位置以上对于财政偿付和信用市场都是压力测试，对于美股可能触发更大的波动率释放，道琼斯可能转向震荡下跌，届时联储的工具选择将对市场走势至关重要。\n\n\n\n表1：美债长端利率对应美股风险溢价标准差\n\n\n\n\n\n资料来源：Bloomberg，天风证券研究所\n\n\n\n联储在应对短期金融市场的「无序」上依然是近似万能的。目前有多种工具可以选择用于平抑利率上升，从弱到强的排序依次是：（1）更强烈的鸽派喊话，（2）通过纽约联储直接购债，（3）扭曲操作（OT），（4）扩大QE规模，（5）有目标利率承诺的收益率曲线控制（YCC）。\n鲍威尔3月4日接受采访时称「当前金融市场的波动并没有到影响美联储目标」，也就是说美债在1.5%附近时，联储会放任利率继续上升，波动不是问题。在利率上升到更高水平之前，美联储可能只会做点鸽派喊话，甚至不太可能对延长放松SLR（银行补充杠杆率）进行表态。\n当美债上升至1.7%-1.8%，美股波动率可能明显上升，这是观察联储操作的关键位置，联储有可能考虑通过扩大购债或进行扭曲操作来减缓利率上升的速度。如果利率上升到2.0%-2.1%，不仅是财政偿债息的压力较大，信用市场可能也开始出现新一轮风险，届时联储可能会考虑推迟QE缩减，甚至承诺收益率曲线控制（YCC）。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{".DJI":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2565,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":389704168,"gmtCreate":1612797163754,"gmtModify":1704874396139,"author":{"id":"28157621219307","authorId":"28157621219307","name":"寻找未被市场了解的价值股","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/db5ac23c1de3f9f7e6ede57af9eef027","crmLevel":9,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"28157621219307","authorIdStr":"28157621219307"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"(null)","listText":"(null)","text":"(null)","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/389704168","repostId":"389879611","repostType":1,"repost":{"id":389879611,"gmtCreate":1612756186929,"gmtModify":1704873843776,"author":{"id":"36979109942400","authorId":"36979109942400","name":"小虎周报","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/f7b172cf773c77a3f0df67695c126b51","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"36979109942400","authorIdStr":"36979109942400"},"themes":[],"title":"一周IPO观察：SaaS赴美第一股容联云来袭，大波医药股过港交所聆讯","htmlText":"港股：大波醫藥股過聆訊，諾輝健康、昭衍新藥、賽生藥業 香港市場近幾年最大的IPO快手終於在上週上市，首日開盤暴漲193%，收盤漲幅161%，單籤最高收益23000港元（不計手續費），也是目前市場對稀缺性標的追逐的象徵。 同時，亦有<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/02160\">$心通醫療-B(02160)$</a> 上市首日漲幅54.26%，<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/02161\">$健倍苗苗(02161)$</a> 上市週日漲幅80%，<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/02170\">$貝康醫療-B(02170)$</a> 暗盤漲幅14%，近期新股情緒高漲。 截止2月7日，上週有<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/06606\">$諾輝健康-B(06606)$</a> 、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/603127\">$昭衍新藥(603127)$</a> 、賽生藥業三家醫藥公司通過聆訊，廣聯工程遞交招股書。 一、諾輝健康（6606）開啓招股。 <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/06606\">$諾輝健康-B(06606)$</a> 是中國癌症早篩的引領者和居家檢測的開創者，在腸癌早篩這個領域的市場佔有率高達90%以上。旗下的兩款結直腸癌篩查產品——常衛清、噗噗管已獲批並商業化，其餘的胃癌、宮頸癌篩查的管線在臨牀試驗中。 公司業務覆蓋119個城市、316家醫院，合作超過40家科研機構、235個體檢中心、36家保險公司、457個零售及連鎖藥店在線及線下直銷。 收入方面，2018-2019年，公司實現營業收入分別爲1881.6萬元、5827.5萬元，2020年上半年收入1052.6萬元，同期調整後的虧損分別爲0.","listText":"港股：大波醫藥股過聆訊，諾輝健康、昭衍新藥、賽生藥業 香港市場近幾年最大的IPO快手終於在上週上市，首日開盤暴漲193%，收盤漲幅161%，單籤最高收益23000港元（不計手續費），也是目前市場對稀缺性標的追逐的象徵。 同時，亦有<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/02160\">$心通醫療-B(02160)$</a> 上市首日漲幅54.26%，<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/02161\">$健倍苗苗(02161)$</a> 上市週日漲幅80%，<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/02170\">$貝康醫療-B(02170)$</a> 暗盤漲幅14%，近期新股情緒高漲。 截止2月7日，上週有<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/06606\">$諾輝健康-B(06606)$</a> 、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/603127\">$昭衍新藥(603127)$</a> 、賽生藥業三家醫藥公司通過聆訊，廣聯工程遞交招股書。 一、諾輝健康（6606）開啓招股。 <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/06606\">$諾輝健康-B(06606)$</a> 是中國癌症早篩的引領者和居家檢測的開創者，在腸癌早篩這個領域的市場佔有率高達90%以上。旗下的兩款結直腸癌篩查產品——常衛清、噗噗管已獲批並商業化，其餘的胃癌、宮頸癌篩查的管線在臨牀試驗中。 公司業務覆蓋119個城市、316家醫院，合作超過40家科研機構、235個體檢中心、36家保險公司、457個零售及連鎖藥店在線及線下直銷。 收入方面，2018-2019年，公司實現營業收入分別爲1881.6萬元、5827.5萬元，2020年上半年收入1052.6萬元，同期調整後的虧損分別爲0.","text":"港股：大波醫藥股過聆訊，諾輝健康、昭衍新藥、賽生藥業 香港市場近幾年最大的IPO快手終於在上週上市，首日開盤暴漲193%，收盤漲幅161%，單籤最高收益23000港元（不計手續費），也是目前市場對稀缺性標的追逐的象徵。 同時，亦有$心通醫療-B(02160)$ 上市首日漲幅54.26%，$健倍苗苗(02161)$ 上市週日漲幅80%，$貝康醫療-B(02170)$ 暗盤漲幅14%，近期新股情緒高漲。 截止2月7日，上週有$諾輝健康-B(06606)$ 、$昭衍新藥(603127)$ 、賽生藥業三家醫藥公司通過聆訊，廣聯工程遞交招股書。 一、諾輝健康（6606）開啓招股。 $諾輝健康-B(06606)$ 是中國癌症早篩的引領者和居家檢測的開創者，在腸癌早篩這個領域的市場佔有率高達90%以上。旗下的兩款結直腸癌篩查產品——常衛清、噗噗管已獲批並商業化，其餘的胃癌、宮頸癌篩查的管線在臨牀試驗中。 公司業務覆蓋119個城市、316家醫院，合作超過40家科研機構、235個體檢中心、36家保險公司、457個零售及連鎖藥店在線及線下直銷。 收入方面，2018-2019年，公司實現營業收入分別爲1881.6萬元、5827.5萬元，2020年上半年收入1052.6萬元，同期調整後的虧損分別爲0.","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":2,"essential":2,"paper":2,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/389879611","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":0,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":3151,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0}],"hots":[{"id":228803862405304,"gmtCreate":1696900228899,"gmtModify":1696900228949,"author":{"id":"28157621219307","authorId":"28157621219307","name":"寻找未被市场了解的价值股","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/db5ac23c1de3f9f7e6ede57af9eef027","crmLevel":9,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"28157621219307","authorIdStr":"28157621219307"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/00883\">$中国海洋石油(00883)$ </a>","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/00883\">$中国海洋石油(00883)$ </a>","text":"$中国海洋石油(00883)$","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/228803862405304","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2338,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":327889464,"gmtCreate":1616076242058,"gmtModify":1704790613958,"author":{"id":"28157621219307","authorId":"28157621219307","name":"寻找未被市场了解的价值股","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/db5ac23c1de3f9f7e6ede57af9eef027","crmLevel":9,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"28157621219307","authorIdStr":"28157621219307"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"(null)","listText":"(null)","text":"(null)","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/327889464","repostId":"1183811952","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1183811952","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1616052511,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1183811952?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2021-03-18 15:28","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"Several Key Positions of U.S. Debt: U.S. Stocks Are Dangerous to This Number","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1183811952","media":"雪涛宏观笔记","summary":"在利率上升到更高水平之前，美联储可能只会进行鸽派喊话。","content":"<p>Author: Song Xuetao</p><p>Since February, the 10Y interest rate of U.S. bonds has risen from 1.0%-1.1% to 1.5%-1.6%, and the increase in one and a half months (February-mid-March) (~50bp) is equivalent to the sum of the previous six months (August last year-January this year). The rise in real interest rates has played a major role: since February, the 10Y real interest rate of U.S. bonds has risen by 40bp, while (breakeven) inflation expectations have only risen by 13bp, remaining around 2.2%.</p><p><table><tbody><tr><td>Figure 1: Real Interest Rates vs. Inflation Expectations</p><p></td></tr><tr><td><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7832b057273488212cecefac469537ac\" tg-width=\"723\" tg-height=\"372\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p></td></tr><tr><td>Source: Wind, Tianfeng Securities Research Institute</p><p></td></tr></tbody></table><b>The recovery in real interest rates reflects expected pricing on both economic and policy fronts.</b>On the economic side, the U.S. has accelerated vaccination, and the economy and employment have accelerated improvement. According to the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC), more than 100 million doses have been administered in the United States. The unemployment rate for non-farm payrolls continued to fall to 6.2% in February. In terms of policy, the 1.9 trillion fiscal plan increased supply, and the Federal Reserve remained \"calm\" about the recovery of interest rates. Since August last year, the Fed's monthly Treasury Bond purchases have remained basically unchanged, remaining around $80 billion. In an interview on March 4th, Powell also said that \"the volatility of financial markets has not yet affected the Fed's goals (long-term employment and average inflation)\".</p><p><b>From the above two aspects, the recovery of real interest rates will continue.</b>Until the slope of economic recovery and the Fed's attitude toward interest rate recovery have not changed, the trend of real interest rate recovery will not change. But if you stretch the time to the past 20 years, the long-term trend of real interest rates is downward. Before 2008, the level of real interest rate was 2%; After 2008, the real interest rate has been between 0% and 1% for a long time; Pre-pandemic, real interest rates were already around 0%.</p><p>After stripping off the long-term trend, the current real interest rate (around-0.66%) remains at historically low levels (17.4% quantile). Considering that the K-shaped economic recovery and the long-term easing trend of the central bank are difficult to reverse,<b>Expect the rebound high in real interest rates to be around 0.2%-0.3%</b>, corresponding to the 70%-80% historical quantile, which is approximately equal to the 2019 average.</p><p><table><tbody><tr><td>Figure 2: U.S. Debt the 10 year real rate, Cyclical Items and Trend Items</p><p></td></tr><tr><td><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4f516bc3a6820f2d007f3f6d1430b73e\" tg-width=\"703\" tg-height=\"415\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p></td></tr><tr><td>Source: Wind, Tianfeng Securities Research Institute</p><p></td></tr></tbody></table><b>Investors' concerns about long-term growth and inflation-beating expectations are not profound.</b>Since the beginning of the year, the duration stages in which the term premium of U.S. debt has increased the most are 1~2 years and 2~3 years, and then decrease in turn, reflecting that the market's expectations for short-term recovery and monetary easing convergence have exceeded the medium and long-term.</p><p><table><tbody><tr><td>Figure 3: Year-to-date variation of term premium by stage</p><p></td></tr><tr><td><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/db9c7dd3cbdbaeef45082ec9ee3db419\" tg-width=\"919\" tg-height=\"541\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p></td></tr><tr><td>Source: New York Fed, Tianfeng Securities Institute</p><p></td></tr></tbody></table><b>The current inflation expectation is already at an all-time high (99.5% percentile).</b>The recovery of shale oil production capacity in the United States is less than expected, giving OPEC room to continue to reduce production and maintain high oil prices. In the first half of the year, oil prices may fluctuate violently at a high level, but inflation expectations may fall with oil prices in the second half of the year. Judging from previous rounds of historical experience, inflation expectations are about half a year ahead of the real interest rate. When the real interest rate peaks, inflation expectations have fallen back to around the median. It is expected that when real interest rates peak in this round, inflation expectations will fall back to about 1.7%-1.8%,<b>The high point corresponding to this round of U.S. bond 10Y interest rate is about 1.9%-2.1%.</b></p><p><table><tbody><tr><td>Figure 4: Breakeven Inflation Expectations, Cyclical Terms and Trend Terms</p><p></td></tr><tr><td><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/00fd610549bf4fde6fa8b04b4d92bbfe\" tg-width=\"966\" tg-height=\"535\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p></td></tr><tr><td>Source: Wind, Tianfeng Securities Research Institute</p><p></td></tr></tbody></table>On February 11th, we used the three-factor model to calculate in \"How much upside is there in US Treasury yields\" and found that: (1) By the end of this year, the fluctuation range of the 10Y interest rate of U.S. bonds is 1.38%-1.71%; (2) The high point of US Treasury yields during the year is around 1.8%, and inflation exceeds expectations and the Fed's early reduction of QE (or transmission of signals) are the main upside risks; (3) March-May is the stage when interest rates rise the fastest, and they enter a high fluctuation after May.</p><p>In fact, the 10Y interest rate of U.S. bonds rose to 1.5%-1.6% on March 5th, and the rising rate exceeded our expectations at that time. At present,<b>The time and space for interest rate upside are not sufficient yet. The upside is still expected to be 20-30bp during the year, and the operating range will be 1.5%-1.8% after May</b>(Low term premium scenario)<b>。 However, the fastest stage of interest rate recovery may have been experienced, and the subsequent upward slope will slow down and the shock will increase.</b></p><p><table><tbody><tr><td>Figure 5: Three-factor model predicts the trend of U.S. debt during the year</p><p></td></tr><tr><td><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6bea5595310b330b3ab6a72b7a51a6b0\" tg-width=\"976\" tg-height=\"635\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p></td></tr><tr><td>Source: Bloomberg, Tianfeng Securities Research Institute</p><p></td></tr></tbody></table><b>For stocks, a rise in real interest rates means a rise in real financing costs, and the pressure is greater than the rise in inflation expectations.</b>The empirical results since 2003 show that the correlation coefficient between the 10Y real interest rate of U.S. bonds and the S&P 500 P/E is-0.41. Therefore, after the real interest rate of U.S. debt has rebounded rapidly since February, especially after the 10Y interest rate of U.S. debt has quickly broken through 1.3%, the high valuation sector of U.S. stocks has undergone a significant adjustment. From February 1-March 12, Dow Jones and Nasdaq gained 9.3% and 1.9%, respectively, and MSCI Value and Growth gained 10.3% and 1.0%, respectively.</p><p><table><tbody><tr><td>Figure 6: Time series of valuation levels of U.S. stocks and 10-year Treasury Bond real interest rate</p><p></td></tr><tr><td><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/520c16190d472f7ed7a734d2070b40f9\" tg-width=\"909\" tg-height=\"543\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p></td></tr><tr><td>Source: Bloomberg, Tianfeng Securities Research Institute</p><p></td></tr></tbody></table><b>From the perspective of the risk pricing level of U.S. stocks, there are several key positions of U.S. debt that correspond to different levels of risk status in the U.S. stock market.</b></p><p><b>The first key position is 1.3%-1.5%</b>, corresponding to the static risk premium of the S&P 500 that is 1.5 standard deviations below the historical quantile. This position is the pressure level of Nasdaq, which corresponds to the structural market of U.S. value stocks. High-valuation growth stocks fluctuate and fall, low-valuation value stocks are repaired, and rising interest rates are good for finance.</p><p><b>The second key position is 1.7%-1.8%</b>, corresponding to the dynamic risk premium of the S&P 500 that is 1.5 standard deviations below the historical quantile, while the static risk premium of the Dow Jones Industrial Index is 1.0 standard deviations below the historical quantile. This position is the pressure level of S&P. Once it breaks through, the volatility will rise obviously. At this time, the Fed may intervene in the rising rate of the long-term interest rate of U.S. debt.</p><p><b>The third key position is 2.0%-2.1%</b>, corresponding to the top range of the upward trend of this round of US Treasury yields that we predicted earlier. Above this position is a stress test for fiscal repayment and credit markets. For US stocks, it may trigger greater volatility release, and Dow Jones may turn to a shock decline. At that time, the Fed's tool selection will be crucial to the market trend.</p><p><table><tbody><tr><td>Table 1: Long-term interest rate of U.S. bonds corresponds to standard deviation of risk premium of U.S. stocks</p><p></td></tr><tr><td><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8cd7ecc59a787c98d543c5a98a75e168\" tg-width=\"847\" tg-height=\"448\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p></td></tr><tr><td>Source: Bloomberg, Tianfeng Securities Research Institute</p><p></td></tr></tbody></table><b>The Fed remains almost omnipotent in dealing with the \"disorder\" of short-term financial markets.</b>There are currently a variety of tools to choose from for flattening rising interest rates, ranked from weak to strong: (1) stronger dovish shouting, (2) direct bond purchases through the New York Fed, (3) distortion operations (OT), (4) scaling up QE, and (5) yield curve control (YCC) with target rate commitments.</p><p>In an interview on March 4, Powell said that \"the current volatility in financial markets has not affected the Fed's goals,\" which means<b>When the U.S. debt is around 1.5%, the Fed will let interest rates continue to rise, and volatility is not a problem. Until interest rates rise to higher levels, the Fed may only make a dovish shout, and is unlikely to even take a stand on extending the easing of SLR (bank supplemental leverage ratio).</b></p><p><b>When U.S. bonds rise to 1.7%-1.8%, the volatility of U.S. stocks may increase significantly</b>This is a key position to observe the operations of the Fed,<b>It is possible that the Fed may consider slowing the pace of interest rate rises by expanding bond purchases or performing distortions. If the interest rate rises to 2.0%-2.1%, not only will the pressure of fiscal debt service be greater, but a new round of risks may also begin to appear in the credit market. At that time, the Fed may consider delaying QE tapering and even promise yield curve control (YCC).</b></p>","source":"xthgbj","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Several Key Positions of U.S. Debt: U.S. Stocks Are Dangerous to This Number</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nSeveral Key Positions of U.S. Debt: U.S. Stocks Are Dangerous to This Number\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">雪涛宏观笔记</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-03-18 15:28</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>Author: Song Xuetao</p><p>Since February, the 10Y interest rate of U.S. bonds has risen from 1.0%-1.1% to 1.5%-1.6%, and the increase in one and a half months (February-mid-March) (~50bp) is equivalent to the sum of the previous six months (August last year-January this year). The rise in real interest rates has played a major role: since February, the 10Y real interest rate of U.S. bonds has risen by 40bp, while (breakeven) inflation expectations have only risen by 13bp, remaining around 2.2%.</p><p><table><tbody><tr><td>Figure 1: Real Interest Rates vs. Inflation Expectations</p><p></td></tr><tr><td><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7832b057273488212cecefac469537ac\" tg-width=\"723\" tg-height=\"372\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p></td></tr><tr><td>Source: Wind, Tianfeng Securities Research Institute</p><p></td></tr></tbody></table><b>The recovery in real interest rates reflects expected pricing on both economic and policy fronts.</b>On the economic side, the U.S. has accelerated vaccination, and the economy and employment have accelerated improvement. According to the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC), more than 100 million doses have been administered in the United States. The unemployment rate for non-farm payrolls continued to fall to 6.2% in February. In terms of policy, the 1.9 trillion fiscal plan increased supply, and the Federal Reserve remained \"calm\" about the recovery of interest rates. Since August last year, the Fed's monthly Treasury Bond purchases have remained basically unchanged, remaining around $80 billion. In an interview on March 4th, Powell also said that \"the volatility of financial markets has not yet affected the Fed's goals (long-term employment and average inflation)\".</p><p><b>From the above two aspects, the recovery of real interest rates will continue.</b>Until the slope of economic recovery and the Fed's attitude toward interest rate recovery have not changed, the trend of real interest rate recovery will not change. But if you stretch the time to the past 20 years, the long-term trend of real interest rates is downward. Before 2008, the level of real interest rate was 2%; After 2008, the real interest rate has been between 0% and 1% for a long time; Pre-pandemic, real interest rates were already around 0%.</p><p>After stripping off the long-term trend, the current real interest rate (around-0.66%) remains at historically low levels (17.4% quantile). Considering that the K-shaped economic recovery and the long-term easing trend of the central bank are difficult to reverse,<b>Expect the rebound high in real interest rates to be around 0.2%-0.3%</b>, corresponding to the 70%-80% historical quantile, which is approximately equal to the 2019 average.</p><p><table><tbody><tr><td>Figure 2: U.S. Debt the 10 year real rate, Cyclical Items and Trend Items</p><p></td></tr><tr><td><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4f516bc3a6820f2d007f3f6d1430b73e\" tg-width=\"703\" tg-height=\"415\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p></td></tr><tr><td>Source: Wind, Tianfeng Securities Research Institute</p><p></td></tr></tbody></table><b>Investors' concerns about long-term growth and inflation-beating expectations are not profound.</b>Since the beginning of the year, the duration stages in which the term premium of U.S. debt has increased the most are 1~2 years and 2~3 years, and then decrease in turn, reflecting that the market's expectations for short-term recovery and monetary easing convergence have exceeded the medium and long-term.</p><p><table><tbody><tr><td>Figure 3: Year-to-date variation of term premium by stage</p><p></td></tr><tr><td><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/db9c7dd3cbdbaeef45082ec9ee3db419\" tg-width=\"919\" tg-height=\"541\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p></td></tr><tr><td>Source: New York Fed, Tianfeng Securities Institute</p><p></td></tr></tbody></table><b>The current inflation expectation is already at an all-time high (99.5% percentile).</b>The recovery of shale oil production capacity in the United States is less than expected, giving OPEC room to continue to reduce production and maintain high oil prices. In the first half of the year, oil prices may fluctuate violently at a high level, but inflation expectations may fall with oil prices in the second half of the year. Judging from previous rounds of historical experience, inflation expectations are about half a year ahead of the real interest rate. When the real interest rate peaks, inflation expectations have fallen back to around the median. It is expected that when real interest rates peak in this round, inflation expectations will fall back to about 1.7%-1.8%,<b>The high point corresponding to this round of U.S. bond 10Y interest rate is about 1.9%-2.1%.</b></p><p><table><tbody><tr><td>Figure 4: Breakeven Inflation Expectations, Cyclical Terms and Trend Terms</p><p></td></tr><tr><td><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/00fd610549bf4fde6fa8b04b4d92bbfe\" tg-width=\"966\" tg-height=\"535\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p></td></tr><tr><td>Source: Wind, Tianfeng Securities Research Institute</p><p></td></tr></tbody></table>On February 11th, we used the three-factor model to calculate in \"How much upside is there in US Treasury yields\" and found that: (1) By the end of this year, the fluctuation range of the 10Y interest rate of U.S. bonds is 1.38%-1.71%; (2) The high point of US Treasury yields during the year is around 1.8%, and inflation exceeds expectations and the Fed's early reduction of QE (or transmission of signals) are the main upside risks; (3) March-May is the stage when interest rates rise the fastest, and they enter a high fluctuation after May.</p><p>In fact, the 10Y interest rate of U.S. bonds rose to 1.5%-1.6% on March 5th, and the rising rate exceeded our expectations at that time. At present,<b>The time and space for interest rate upside are not sufficient yet. The upside is still expected to be 20-30bp during the year, and the operating range will be 1.5%-1.8% after May</b>(Low term premium scenario)<b>。 However, the fastest stage of interest rate recovery may have been experienced, and the subsequent upward slope will slow down and the shock will increase.</b></p><p><table><tbody><tr><td>Figure 5: Three-factor model predicts the trend of U.S. debt during the year</p><p></td></tr><tr><td><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6bea5595310b330b3ab6a72b7a51a6b0\" tg-width=\"976\" tg-height=\"635\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p></td></tr><tr><td>Source: Bloomberg, Tianfeng Securities Research Institute</p><p></td></tr></tbody></table><b>For stocks, a rise in real interest rates means a rise in real financing costs, and the pressure is greater than the rise in inflation expectations.</b>The empirical results since 2003 show that the correlation coefficient between the 10Y real interest rate of U.S. bonds and the S&P 500 P/E is-0.41. Therefore, after the real interest rate of U.S. debt has rebounded rapidly since February, especially after the 10Y interest rate of U.S. debt has quickly broken through 1.3%, the high valuation sector of U.S. stocks has undergone a significant adjustment. From February 1-March 12, Dow Jones and Nasdaq gained 9.3% and 1.9%, respectively, and MSCI Value and Growth gained 10.3% and 1.0%, respectively.</p><p><table><tbody><tr><td>Figure 6: Time series of valuation levels of U.S. stocks and 10-year Treasury Bond real interest rate</p><p></td></tr><tr><td><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/520c16190d472f7ed7a734d2070b40f9\" tg-width=\"909\" tg-height=\"543\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p></td></tr><tr><td>Source: Bloomberg, Tianfeng Securities Research Institute</p><p></td></tr></tbody></table><b>From the perspective of the risk pricing level of U.S. stocks, there are several key positions of U.S. debt that correspond to different levels of risk status in the U.S. stock market.</b></p><p><b>The first key position is 1.3%-1.5%</b>, corresponding to the static risk premium of the S&P 500 that is 1.5 standard deviations below the historical quantile. This position is the pressure level of Nasdaq, which corresponds to the structural market of U.S. value stocks. High-valuation growth stocks fluctuate and fall, low-valuation value stocks are repaired, and rising interest rates are good for finance.</p><p><b>The second key position is 1.7%-1.8%</b>, corresponding to the dynamic risk premium of the S&P 500 that is 1.5 standard deviations below the historical quantile, while the static risk premium of the Dow Jones Industrial Index is 1.0 standard deviations below the historical quantile. This position is the pressure level of S&P. Once it breaks through, the volatility will rise obviously. At this time, the Fed may intervene in the rising rate of the long-term interest rate of U.S. debt.</p><p><b>The third key position is 2.0%-2.1%</b>, corresponding to the top range of the upward trend of this round of US Treasury yields that we predicted earlier. Above this position is a stress test for fiscal repayment and credit markets. For US stocks, it may trigger greater volatility release, and Dow Jones may turn to a shock decline. At that time, the Fed's tool selection will be crucial to the market trend.</p><p><table><tbody><tr><td>Table 1: Long-term interest rate of U.S. bonds corresponds to standard deviation of risk premium of U.S. stocks</p><p></td></tr><tr><td><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8cd7ecc59a787c98d543c5a98a75e168\" tg-width=\"847\" tg-height=\"448\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p></td></tr><tr><td>Source: Bloomberg, Tianfeng Securities Research Institute</p><p></td></tr></tbody></table><b>The Fed remains almost omnipotent in dealing with the \"disorder\" of short-term financial markets.</b>There are currently a variety of tools to choose from for flattening rising interest rates, ranked from weak to strong: (1) stronger dovish shouting, (2) direct bond purchases through the New York Fed, (3) distortion operations (OT), (4) scaling up QE, and (5) yield curve control (YCC) with target rate commitments.</p><p>In an interview on March 4, Powell said that \"the current volatility in financial markets has not affected the Fed's goals,\" which means<b>When the U.S. debt is around 1.5%, the Fed will let interest rates continue to rise, and volatility is not a problem. Until interest rates rise to higher levels, the Fed may only make a dovish shout, and is unlikely to even take a stand on extending the easing of SLR (bank supplemental leverage ratio).</b></p><p><b>When U.S. bonds rise to 1.7%-1.8%, the volatility of U.S. stocks may increase significantly</b>This is a key position to observe the operations of the Fed,<b>It is possible that the Fed may consider slowing the pace of interest rate rises by expanding bond purchases or performing distortions. If the interest rate rises to 2.0%-2.1%, not only will the pressure of fiscal debt service be greater, but a new round of risks may also begin to appear in the credit market. At that time, the Fed may consider delaying QE tapering and even promise yield curve control (YCC).</b></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> source：<a href=\"https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s/3l5QZb2TcPnxed4aoAsMAw\">雪涛宏观笔记</a></p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e54aaddff302c2c8e07be296a486ea34","relate_stocks":{".DJI":"道琼斯"},"source_url":"https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s/3l5QZb2TcPnxed4aoAsMAw","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1183811952","content_text":"作者：宋雪涛\n2月以来，美债10Y利率从1.0%-1.1%上行到1.5%-1.6%，1个半月（2月-3月中）的上升幅度（~50bp）相当于之前6个月（去年8月-今年1月）的总和。实际利率的上升起了主要作用：2月以来美债10Y实际利率上升了40bp，而（盈亏平衡）通胀预期只上升了13bp，维持在2.2%附近。\n\n\n\n图1：实际利率与通胀预期\n\n\n\n\n\n资料来源：Wind，天风证券研究所\n\n\n\n实际利率的回升反映了经济和政策两个方面的预期定价。经济方面是美国疫苗加速接种，经济和就业加速改善。根据美国疾控中心（CDC）的数据，美国已经接种超过1亿剂。2月非农就业失业率继续下降至6.2%。政策方面是1.9万亿财政计划增加供给，联储对利率回升仍然保持「淡定」。去年8月以来，美联储每月国债购买量基本没有变化，维持在800亿美元上下。3月4日鲍威尔接受采访时也说「金融市场波动还没有到影响联储目标（长期就业和平均通胀）的程度」。\n从以上两方面来看，实际利率的回升还会继续。在经济复苏的斜率和联储对于利率回升的态度没有发生变化之前，实际利率回升的趋势不会改变。但如果把时间拉长到过去20年，实际利率的长期趋势是向下的。2008年之前，实际利率的水平是2%；而2008年之后，实际利率长期位于0%-1%之间；疫情前，实际利率已经在0%附近。\n剥离长期趋势后，当前实际利率（-0.66%左右）仍然处在历史较低水平（17.4%分位）。考虑到经济K型复苏和央行长时间宽松的趋势难以逆转，预计实际利率的反弹高点大约在0.2%-0.3%左右，对应70%-80%历史分位，约等于2019年的平均水平。\n\n\n\n图2：美债10年期实际利率、周期项和趋势项\n\n\n\n\n\n资料来源：Wind，天风证券研究所\n\n\n\n投资者对于长期增长和通胀超预期的担忧并不深刻。年初至今，美债期限溢价上升幅度最大的久期阶段是1~2年和2~3年，之后依次递减，反映市场对于短期复苏和货币宽松收敛的预期定价超过了中长期。\n\n\n\n图3：年初至今各阶段期限溢价变动幅度\n\n\n\n\n\n资料来源：纽约联储，天风证券研究所\n\n\n\n当前通胀预期已经处在历史高位（99.5%分位）。美国页岩油产能恢复不及预期给了OPEC继续减产维持高油价的空间，上半年油价可能在高位剧烈震荡，但下半年通胀预期可能随油价回落。从之前几轮历史经验来看，通胀预期领先实际利率半年左右，实际利率见顶时，通胀预期已经回落至中位数附近。预计本轮实际利率见顶时，通胀预期将回落至1.7%-1.8%左右，对应本轮美债10Y利率的高点大约为1.9%-2.1%。\n\n\n\n图4：盈亏平衡通胀预期、周期项和趋势项\n\n\n\n\n\n资料来源：Wind，天风证券研究所\n\n\n\n我们2月11日在《美债利率上行空间有多少》中用三因子模型测算发现：（1）到今年年底，美债10Y利率的波动区间为1.38%-1.71%；（2）美债利率年内高点在1.8%左右，通胀超预期和联储提前缩减QE（或传递信号）是主要上行风险；（3）3-5月是利率上升最快的阶段，5月之后进入高位震荡。\n实际上美债10Y利率在3月5日升至1.5%-1.6%，上升速度超出了我们当时预期。目前来看，利率上行的时间和空间尚不充分，年内上升空间预计仍有20-30bp，5月后运行区间将位于1.5%-1.8%（低期限溢价情形）。但是利率回升最快的阶段可能已经经历，后续上升斜率将放缓，震荡将加大。\n\n\n\n图5：三因子模型预测年内美债走势\n\n\n\n\n\n资料来源：Bloomberg，天风证券研究所\n\n\n\n对于股票而言，实际利率上升意味着实际融资成本抬升，压力大于通胀预期回升。2003年以来的实证结果显示，美债10Y实际利率与标普500市盈率的相关系数为-0.41。因此2月以来美债实际利率快速回升后，特别是美债10Y利率迅速突破1.3%后，美股的高估值板块出现明显调整。2月1日-3月12日，道琼斯和纳斯达克的涨幅分别是9.3%和1.9%，MSCI价值和成长的涨幅分别是10.3%和1.0%。\n\n\n\n图6：美股估值水平时间序列及10年期国债实际利率\n\n\n\n\n\n资料来源：Bloomberg，天风证券研究所\n\n\n\n从美股的风险定价水平来看，美债有几个关键位置对应了美股市场不同等级的风险状态。\n第一个关键位置是1.3%-1.5%，对应了标普500的静态风险溢价低于历史分位数1.5个标准差。这个位置是纳斯达克的压力位，对应的是美股价值股的结构性行情，高估值成长股震荡下跌，低估值价值股修复，利率上升利好金融。\n第二个关键位置是1.7%-1.8%，对应了标普500的动态风险溢价低于历史分位数1.5个标准差，同时道琼斯工业指数的静态风险溢价低于历史分位数1.0个标准差。这个位置是标普的压力位，一旦突破波动率将明显上升，此时联储可能出手干预美债长端利率的上升速度。\n第三个关键位置是2.0%-2.1%，对应了我们前面预测的本轮美债利率上行的顶部区间。这个位置以上对于财政偿付和信用市场都是压力测试，对于美股可能触发更大的波动率释放，道琼斯可能转向震荡下跌，届时联储的工具选择将对市场走势至关重要。\n\n\n\n表1：美债长端利率对应美股风险溢价标准差\n\n\n\n\n\n资料来源：Bloomberg，天风证券研究所\n\n\n\n联储在应对短期金融市场的「无序」上依然是近似万能的。目前有多种工具可以选择用于平抑利率上升，从弱到强的排序依次是：（1）更强烈的鸽派喊话，（2）通过纽约联储直接购债，（3）扭曲操作（OT），（4）扩大QE规模，（5）有目标利率承诺的收益率曲线控制（YCC）。\n鲍威尔3月4日接受采访时称「当前金融市场的波动并没有到影响美联储目标」，也就是说美债在1.5%附近时，联储会放任利率继续上升，波动不是问题。在利率上升到更高水平之前，美联储可能只会做点鸽派喊话，甚至不太可能对延长放松SLR（银行补充杠杆率）进行表态。\n当美债上升至1.7%-1.8%，美股波动率可能明显上升，这是观察联储操作的关键位置，联储有可能考虑通过扩大购债或进行扭曲操作来减缓利率上升的速度。如果利率上升到2.0%-2.1%，不仅是财政偿债息的压力较大，信用市场可能也开始出现新一轮风险，届时联储可能会考虑推迟QE缩减，甚至承诺收益率曲线控制（YCC）。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{".DJI":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2565,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":389704168,"gmtCreate":1612797163754,"gmtModify":1704874396139,"author":{"id":"28157621219307","authorId":"28157621219307","name":"寻找未被市场了解的价值股","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/db5ac23c1de3f9f7e6ede57af9eef027","crmLevel":9,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"28157621219307","authorIdStr":"28157621219307"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"(null)","listText":"(null)","text":"(null)","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/389704168","repostId":"389879611","repostType":1,"repost":{"id":389879611,"gmtCreate":1612756186929,"gmtModify":1704873843776,"author":{"id":"36979109942400","authorId":"36979109942400","name":"小虎周报","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/f7b172cf773c77a3f0df67695c126b51","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"36979109942400","authorIdStr":"36979109942400"},"themes":[],"title":"一周IPO观察：SaaS赴美第一股容联云来袭，大波医药股过港交所聆讯","htmlText":"港股：大波醫藥股過聆訊，諾輝健康、昭衍新藥、賽生藥業 香港市場近幾年最大的IPO快手終於在上週上市，首日開盤暴漲193%，收盤漲幅161%，單籤最高收益23000港元（不計手續費），也是目前市場對稀缺性標的追逐的象徵。 同時，亦有<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/02160\">$心通醫療-B(02160)$</a> 上市首日漲幅54.26%，<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/02161\">$健倍苗苗(02161)$</a> 上市週日漲幅80%，<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/02170\">$貝康醫療-B(02170)$</a> 暗盤漲幅14%，近期新股情緒高漲。 截止2月7日，上週有<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/06606\">$諾輝健康-B(06606)$</a> 、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/603127\">$昭衍新藥(603127)$</a> 、賽生藥業三家醫藥公司通過聆訊，廣聯工程遞交招股書。 一、諾輝健康（6606）開啓招股。 <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/06606\">$諾輝健康-B(06606)$</a> 是中國癌症早篩的引領者和居家檢測的開創者，在腸癌早篩這個領域的市場佔有率高達90%以上。旗下的兩款結直腸癌篩查產品——常衛清、噗噗管已獲批並商業化，其餘的胃癌、宮頸癌篩查的管線在臨牀試驗中。 公司業務覆蓋119個城市、316家醫院，合作超過40家科研機構、235個體檢中心、36家保險公司、457個零售及連鎖藥店在線及線下直銷。 收入方面，2018-2019年，公司實現營業收入分別爲1881.6萬元、5827.5萬元，2020年上半年收入1052.6萬元，同期調整後的虧損分別爲0.","listText":"港股：大波醫藥股過聆訊，諾輝健康、昭衍新藥、賽生藥業 香港市場近幾年最大的IPO快手終於在上週上市，首日開盤暴漲193%，收盤漲幅161%，單籤最高收益23000港元（不計手續費），也是目前市場對稀缺性標的追逐的象徵。 同時，亦有<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/02160\">$心通醫療-B(02160)$</a> 上市首日漲幅54.26%，<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/02161\">$健倍苗苗(02161)$</a> 上市週日漲幅80%，<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/02170\">$貝康醫療-B(02170)$</a> 暗盤漲幅14%，近期新股情緒高漲。 截止2月7日，上週有<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/06606\">$諾輝健康-B(06606)$</a> 、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/603127\">$昭衍新藥(603127)$</a> 、賽生藥業三家醫藥公司通過聆訊，廣聯工程遞交招股書。 一、諾輝健康（6606）開啓招股。 <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/06606\">$諾輝健康-B(06606)$</a> 是中國癌症早篩的引領者和居家檢測的開創者，在腸癌早篩這個領域的市場佔有率高達90%以上。旗下的兩款結直腸癌篩查產品——常衛清、噗噗管已獲批並商業化，其餘的胃癌、宮頸癌篩查的管線在臨牀試驗中。 公司業務覆蓋119個城市、316家醫院，合作超過40家科研機構、235個體檢中心、36家保險公司、457個零售及連鎖藥店在線及線下直銷。 收入方面，2018-2019年，公司實現營業收入分別爲1881.6萬元、5827.5萬元，2020年上半年收入1052.6萬元，同期調整後的虧損分別爲0.","text":"港股：大波醫藥股過聆訊，諾輝健康、昭衍新藥、賽生藥業 香港市場近幾年最大的IPO快手終於在上週上市，首日開盤暴漲193%，收盤漲幅161%，單籤最高收益23000港元（不計手續費），也是目前市場對稀缺性標的追逐的象徵。 同時，亦有$心通醫療-B(02160)$ 上市首日漲幅54.26%，$健倍苗苗(02161)$ 上市週日漲幅80%，$貝康醫療-B(02170)$ 暗盤漲幅14%，近期新股情緒高漲。 截止2月7日，上週有$諾輝健康-B(06606)$ 、$昭衍新藥(603127)$ 、賽生藥業三家醫藥公司通過聆訊，廣聯工程遞交招股書。 一、諾輝健康（6606）開啓招股。 $諾輝健康-B(06606)$ 是中國癌症早篩的引領者和居家檢測的開創者，在腸癌早篩這個領域的市場佔有率高達90%以上。旗下的兩款結直腸癌篩查產品——常衛清、噗噗管已獲批並商業化，其餘的胃癌、宮頸癌篩查的管線在臨牀試驗中。 公司業務覆蓋119個城市、316家醫院，合作超過40家科研機構、235個體檢中心、36家保險公司、457個零售及連鎖藥店在線及線下直銷。 收入方面，2018-2019年，公司實現營業收入分別爲1881.6萬元、5827.5萬元，2020年上半年收入1052.6萬元，同期調整後的虧損分別爲0.","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":2,"essential":2,"paper":2,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/389879611","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":0,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":3151,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0}],"lives":[]}
