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自在飞花轻似梦
2020-03-03
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Zhang Yidong's latest speech: Don't have the illusion of buffalo, if there is fluctuation in technology stocks in March and April, it is a buying point
自在飞花轻似梦
2020-02-25
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自在飞花轻似梦
2020-02-20
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20:37","market":"sh","language":"zh","title":"Zhang Yidong's latest speech: Don't have the illusion of buffalo, if there is fluctuation in technology stocks in March and April, it is a buying point","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2014866596","media":"全景财经","summary":"来源：聪明投资者（ID：Capital-nature）“我一直提醒不要有水牛的这种幻觉，今年会放水，但是今年不是水牛，今年的牛市是科技牛，是结构性牛市，是以先进制造业为驱动的新的核心资产。”“财政政策","content":"<p><html><body><div></div><div></div>Source: Smart Investor (ID: Capital-nature)</p><p>\"I have always reminded not to have this illusion of buffalo. Water will be released this year, but this year is not buffalo. This year's bull market is a technological bull market, a structural bull market, and a new core asset driven by advanced manufacturing.\"</p><p>\"One of the footholds of fiscal policy and monetary policy should also be scientific and technological infrastructure, not ordinary infrastructure.\"</p><p>\"Although the market of technology stocks this year runs through the whole year, there will definitely be twists and turns in the middle.\"</p><p>\"If there is volatility in technology stocks in March and April, it will be a buying point.\"</p><p>Above, is<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/601377\">Industrial Securities</a>Zhang Yidong, the global chief strategist, gave the latest wonderful views in a conversation with Zhang Shengxian, the chief strategist and fund manager of the quantitative investment department of Wells Fargo Fund today.</p><p>Zhang Shengxian is the chief strategist and fund manager of the quantitative investment department of Wells Fargo Fund. Manage a number of thematic industry index funds including Fuguo CSI Military Industry, Fuguo State-owned Enterprise Reform, Fuguo Smart Car, etc.</p><p>In this dialogue and question and answer, Zhang Yidong shared his views on technology stocks in 2020, gave his analysis of monetary and fiscal policies, and gave a clear answer to which technology industries he is optimistic about.</p><p>Smart investors have compiled wonderful content and shared it with everyone.</p><p>Both Chinese and American technology stocks are quite expensive</p><p>But China's tech stocks have more stamina</p><p>What I just talked about is the whole world, and when it comes to China, China is now facing a good opportunity, that is, the new protagonist of the global asset shortage and the bull market of China's core assets, which is our annual strategy for 2020, with a clear-cut name.</p><p>Now it is obvious that such good technology stocks in the United States are not cheap, but also very expensive. Many people say that our technology stocks are also quite expensive, but when they are on the expensive side, look at the stamina, look at ROE, and look at your future growth space.</p><p>Growth stocks, especially technology-based growth stocks, don't look at static valuations. If you look at static valuations, you will never be able to buy them. They are all expensive.</p><p>Fisher is a master of growth stocks, and he never looks at growth stocks according to the valuation method of cyclical stocks. The biggest risk in the valuation of growth stocks is that he is a liar, he is not a growth stock, and he is not a technology stock.</p><p>Just like why after the crash in 2015, everyone found that many so-called technology stocks were so miserable later, falling even 70% to 80%, and sometimes even 90%. What is the reason? Because after this round of excitement, everyone found that it was falsified, and it was not technological.</p><p>At present, China's technology market is just in the ascendant, because at least at present, you can't falsify it. Although some leading companies in the system industry and these companies with technological content have expensive short-term static valuations, don't be focused. Now, we should focus on the economic environment, policy environment and the global capital flow behind the leaders in these system industries.</p><p>What is the economic environment behind it? In China's economic environment, deleveraging has made a great achievement, and the stage of subtraction has come to an end. What we need to consider now is to do addition and multiplication, and you can see that China's demand is still quite large, and our latecomer advantage is still very strong.</p><p>Although China's demographic dividend is exhausting, our engineer dividend is still very strong, and our capital investment in science and technology, whether in education, college students, or our annual investment in scientific research, is second only to the United States.</p><p>In the context of the possibility of overcapacity at every turn, what is really in line with China's high-quality development and has real demand is precisely those things with scientific and technological content, and those things with scientific and technological content have been summarized in the past two years. He summed up the growth point of the structure as Made in China 2025.</p><p>We still have to firmly remember that Made in China 2025 has one main line, four transformations, five major projects, eight strategies and ten major areas.</p><p>One main line is the deep integration of information technology and manufacturing technology, with digital, networked and intelligent manufacturing as the main line. This is a main line.</p><p>Made in China 2025 is not just the stupid and stupid manufacturing that everyone thinks. It is actually digital and intelligent manufacturing as the main line, with soft and hard,</p><p>Look at the ten major fields again, what new generation information technology and what high-end machine tools<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/300024\">Robot</a>, aerospace, marine engineering, high-tech ships, advanced orbits, energy-saving new energy, power equipment, new materials, biotechnology, etc., there are really hard and soft ones. From this perspective, we can see our real needs and the most efficient place.</p><p>Don't have buffalo hallucinations</p><p>This year's bull market is technology bull, structural bull</p><p>Back to the present, everyone is more worried about China's economy, and some people have started yy in the past two days, because the LPR has dropped today, and I have also answered a lot of phone calls, wondering if there will be a big release of water.</p><p>I have always reminded not to have this illusion of buffalo. Water will be released this year, but this year is not buffalo. This year's bull market is a technology bull market, a structural bull market, and a new core asset driven by advanced manufacturing.</p><p>Why do you say that? Because our current economic structure, tertiary industry and service industry are the main forces driving GDP, and from the perspective of employment, they are also tertiary industry service industry, so employment is the reason why we release water.</p><p>In the news of these two days, you can give him a string of these clues. What is very rare is that social security is reduced or exempted for 5 months. From February to June, as long as you participate in the social security plan, you can be exempted from paying for 5 months, involving an amount of 650 billion yuan.</p><p>Why is there such a big tax reduction? It is targeted. In order to prevent small and medium-sized enterprises from being under great pressure and not starting work, but they have to continue to help employees pay social security, which is under great pressure. Now he is in order to stabilize employment.</p><p>Unlike 2008, 2009 or 2016, as soon as the economic GDP came down, the National Development and Reform Commission and the Ministry of Finance fiercely engaged in infrastructure construction and released real estate.</p><p>Another thing is the monetary policy implementation report in the fourth quarter last night. The central bank also made it very clear that stimulating real estate will not be regarded as an important means to stabilize the economy in the short term. This is already very clear. Our strategic determination is stronger now than before, and the most important thing is economic restructuring. We not only want the economy to be stable, but at the same time we need long-term stability.</p><p>Therefore, even this year, one of the footholds of fiscal policy and monetary policy efforts should be scientific and technological infrastructure, not ordinary infrastructure. Ordinary infrastructure only guarantees the bottom and prevents the economy from landing hard, but the real more intensive infrastructure, It also includes the serious shortage of public medical equipment and facilities brought about by this epidemic.</p><p>Investment in 5G and semiconductors will also increase. This is the so-called scientific and technological infrastructure, which is not only conducive to short-term stable growth, but also conducive to employment, especially the employment of college students. At the same time, it can increase the efficiency of our future economic growth, especially the economic growth stamina is helpful. It's a level.</p><p>Second, from the perspective of funds, where can there be money to support economic transformation? Especially in the direction of high efficiency and high quality?</p><p>My answer is multi-level capital markets.</p><p>Don't expect to expand the balance sheet this time, because the three domestic tables are not very good now, and we can no longer condone leverage.</p><p>From a policy point of view, the relaxation time that can be compared this time is not 2016, 2008, or 2009, but the first four months of 2019. That is to say, after solving the short-term economic difficulties, we still have to go back to doing the long-term right thing.</p><p>I tend to say that from the perspective of capital flow, whether in the short term or long term, the most successful ones are still those with technological content, especially the manufacturing industry with technological content, especially the so-called Made in China 2025.</p><p>Advanced manufacturing and technology industries will expand in both directions</p><p>The multi-level capital market, especially the stock market, must be the multi-level capital market that can continue to bring growth funds.</p><p>Focusing on advanced manufacturing this year, the technology industry will expand in both directions. On the one hand, refinancing is more convenient, and some off-market industrial capital will enter the stock market through the primary market and the primary and semi-markets. This growth fund is very large.</p><p>That is to say, the capital market has changed from a starting point to an effective channel for allocating domestic idle funds and resources.</p><p>As long as there is a profit-making effect,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/603883\">Common people</a>The money also came in.</p><p>This is a very benign two-way expansion, and the direction is likely to be in accordance with the direction of national strategic thinking. You expect good things to come back cheap, which is a bit of a strategic mistake. Just like last year, people always want Maotai to be cheaper and then buy it cheaper, but it is just not cheap.</p><p>If you look at the valuation of technology stocks this year according to the valuation of 2018 and 2019, you will also make the same mistake as last year when you always used the valuation of the previous two years to look at Maotai.</p><p>This year, whether it is from overseas logic, or China's short-term domestic steady growth and the improvement of China's long-term economic benefits, the logic of these fundamentals, coupled with the logic of funds just mentioned, will make the market sustainable for several years. Not just this year, it may be similar to the United States from 2016 to the present.</p><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/GS\">Goldman Sachs</a>A report just came out two days ago, summarizing that in the past two years, the five major technology giants have basically taken the US index. Although China is not so concentrated now, we are taking the best industry leaders in the advanced manufacturing industry with the index.</p><p>Technology stock market will run through the year</p><p>But there will be twists and turns in the middle</p><p>Finally, I would like to add that although the market of technology stocks this year runs through the whole year, there will definitely be twists and turns in the middle. There are two reasons for the twists and turns:</p><p>The first aspect is the fluctuation of risk-free rate of return. From the Spring Festival to the present, the risk-free rate of return has returned from about 3% to the current 2.8% (measured by the 10-year Treasury Bond yield), which is still declining slowly. Judging from the one-year and three-year Treasury Bond yields, the short-term end is even more exaggerated.</p><p>This time is indeed a good day for technology stocks and growth stocks, but we should pay attention to the twists and turns behind.</p><p>For example, if work is fully resumed in March and April, the monetary policy should be matched with the fiscal policy, and the real economy's demand for the use of funds will increase. After the increase, the market interest rate may rise. However, the strength of the rise will be very weak, and it will not pose a big risk or adjustment to the market in March and April.</p><p>The downward trend of risk-free rate of return may enter a low fluctuation in March and April, instead of falling all the way down as it is now.</p><p>If technology stocks fluctuate in March and April, it will be a buying point. What to buy? According to the fundamentals, this fundamental is the core of our valuation of technology stocks. We must know that static valuation is not the core of our buying and selling technology stocks, but the fundamentals are. Good things are rare and expensive.</p><p>What is used to measure good stuff? January is called the wind and the grass. With such bad data in the first quarter, whose quarterly report is okay? What do you mean by making do? That is to say, the impact in February will be borne at home, but who can increase the volume and price from the fundamentals in March, and there is still the momentum for price increases? Niu companies can increase prices and increase their own output.</p><p>Therefore, in April, whose performance can meet expectations or exceed expectations, to put it bluntly, this is the leader that can run through the whole year, and even the leader in the next few years.</p><p>Because the crisis mode in the first quarter of this year was a good military parade, the strength of competitiveness at this time was clear at a glance. These leading companies with strong competitiveness will still last for several years and will be accompanied by the high-quality development of China's economy for a long time.</p><p>To sum up, releasing water is not forever, because it is restricted by external situations, asset bubbles, and inflation. The release of water, Buffalo is only short-lived, but with the optimization and adjustment of the economic structure, relatively more funds will be invested in the relatively optimized but relatively small structure. Structure is king, this is the core.</p><p>Five Directions for a Bull Market in Tech Stocks</p><p>Finally, the bull market of technology stocks may have a continuity of two or three years in the future, rather than a buffalo, it is an efficiency bull and a structural bull brought about by the improvement of economic structure.</p><p>My own opinion is the following five directions. Of course, the bull stocks inside are selected by high-quality fund companies and fund managers such as Wells Fargo Fund, but selecting the five directions from top to bottom is basically appropriate to Made in China 2025.</p><p>The first is information technology represented by 5G semiconductors. The so-called new generation information technology represented by 5G cloud, semiconductor, Internet, and Internet of Things is TMT.</p><p>The second is high-end manufacturing, which is represented by new energy vehicles.</p><p>The third is energy-saving new energy and new materials. Including clean energy, whether<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/000591\">Solar energy</a>, nuclear energy, or some energy-saving equipment, including new materials related to this, which can be combined with the application of new energy vehicles.</p><p>In addition, I just mentioned that the water release will not be sustained, because apart from internal inflation this year, we must be careful that our oil is in the hands of others. The old American oil is already exported, and the rise in oil prices is good for the United States, but not good for China and Europe.</p><p>China has always prepared for a rainy day. The so-called determination and strategic vision of a big country is energy conservation and new energy, which also has technical content. For example, recently, China also has comparative advantages in hydrogen energy, solar energy, and clean energy. This is the third.</p><p>The fourth one tends to some precision manufacturing, especially military industry. Precision manufacturing and TMT are still related. Whether it is some high-end machine tools, artificial intelligence equipment, drones, large aircraft, etc., these are all precision manufacturing.</p><p>The fifth direction is biomedicine and biotechnology.</p><p>These five directions, the first four directions, may be slightly better in the next stage, and biotechnology may be better in the second half of the year than in the second quarter, because due to the epidemic in the first quarter, biotechnology is already a little less confident. The next step It is necessary to make great efforts to make up for shortcomings and invest around public medical care. Therefore, biotechnology and biomedical opportunities in the second half of the year may be better than in the second quarter.</p><p>Generally speaking, for high-quality companies in these five directions, adjustment is the buying point, so don't be afraid of market fluctuations. To sum up, good things are not afraid of falling, not afraid of falling, and not afraid of falling. This is a characteristic of core assets that I have been talking about.</p><p>Whether it is the subtraction of the core assets of traditional industries in the past three years or the multiplication and addition in the next few years, it is a good thing that the core assets of advanced manufacturing and technology-based industries remain unchanged. Especially around such good things with clear fundamentals, we must insist on Qingshan and dare to allocate them when the market fluctuates.</p><p>Q&A session?</p><p>Q: How do you view January social financing?<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/HX\">And credit</a>Big more than expected? Is it good for financial real estate or technology stocks?</p><p>Zhang Yidong: This is the short-term and long-term. From the perspective of social financing, it is relatively more positive for value stocks to prevent the economy from having a hard landing.</p><p>Social financing in January this year, from the perspective of growth, local special bonds are a big part. These are all efforts to stabilize growth, because they are looking for core assets in technology stocks. I don't think the technology market in the next two or three years will be simple. It is equivalent to the buffalo, mad cow, and random speculation in 13 ~ 15 years, but it tends to be similar to a batch of the best ones in the United States after the 1980s, with only a few.</p><p>I estimate that many people buy technology stocks this year than value stocks. Buying technology stocks means buying \"technology stocks\" indiscriminately. Especially those who have chased high prices and bought all technology stocks in the past two days may be slapped on both sides this year and become dizzy.</p><p>If you do not have research ability yourself, the research of technology stocks is not based on static valuation, but from the perspective of an industry. If you are not an industry expert, it is difficult to grasp this overall valuation.</p><p>This kind of technology stock with a high static valuation, and even holding PE is not cheap, but the discounted forward cash flow of leading companies is really a porcelain job, and it requires diamonds.</p><p>Social financing is a backing role. It prevents China's economy from having a hard landing. Once it is not a hard landing, whether it is a leading company in a cyclical industry such as consumption or even real estate, their profits will not exceed expectations. cliff, and now the valuation is relatively cheap, or at least reasonably underestimated. There are even some valuation ratios of leading companies in traditional industries. These can be completely based on static valuation and TTM valuation, because their profits are stable and predictable. As long as the Chinese economy is not a systematic stall, they Act as a stabilizer, you can compare it with bonds to see the cost performance.</p><p>From the current point of view, whether it is a leading company that can't die in the real estate industry, or a return rate of more than 5% in the financial industry or traditional industries, it is more cost-effective for ordinary investors to make a little money. It is safer for ordinary investors to buy value stocks this year, because the risk-free rate of return is low. For those leading companies in traditional industries, it is better than bonds and better than you buy wealth management products.</p><p>Social financing has little impact on technology stocks. Because the rise of technology stocks is more caused by two factors, one is that the interest rate of funds remains unchanged and the rate of return continues to decline; The second piece is related to some regulatory policies, that is, add water if there is more noodles, and add noodles if there is more water. As long as there is a profit-making effect in this market, some incremental money will continue to come in, and the structural market will continue.</p><p>In the last summary, my view on this year's market is that the index is a balanced market, not a bull market or a bear market. Don't expect a big bull market when it rises. The Shanghai Composite Index in the so-called bull market will rise by at least 20% a year, and the Shanghai Composite Index can't see it, because the economy is only a bottom stabilization, not a hard landing.</p><p><div></div><div></div><div></div></body></html></p>","source":"sina_symbol","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Zhang Yidong's latest speech: Don't have the illusion of buffalo, if there is fluctuation in technology stocks in March and April, it is a buying point</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nZhang Yidong's latest speech: Don't have the illusion of buffalo, if there is fluctuation in technology stocks in March and April, it is a buying point\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">全景财经</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2020-02-25 20:37</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><html><body><div></div><div></div>Source: Smart Investor (ID: Capital-nature)</p><p>\"I have always reminded not to have this illusion of buffalo. Water will be released this year, but this year is not buffalo. This year's bull market is a technological bull market, a structural bull market, and a new core asset driven by advanced manufacturing.\"</p><p>\"One of the footholds of fiscal policy and monetary policy should also be scientific and technological infrastructure, not ordinary infrastructure.\"</p><p>\"Although the market of technology stocks this year runs through the whole year, there will definitely be twists and turns in the middle.\"</p><p>\"If there is volatility in technology stocks in March and April, it will be a buying point.\"</p><p>Above, is<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/601377\">Industrial Securities</a>Zhang Yidong, the global chief strategist, gave the latest wonderful views in a conversation with Zhang Shengxian, the chief strategist and fund manager of the quantitative investment department of Wells Fargo Fund today.</p><p>Zhang Shengxian is the chief strategist and fund manager of the quantitative investment department of Wells Fargo Fund. Manage a number of thematic industry index funds including Fuguo CSI Military Industry, Fuguo State-owned Enterprise Reform, Fuguo Smart Car, etc.</p><p>In this dialogue and question and answer, Zhang Yidong shared his views on technology stocks in 2020, gave his analysis of monetary and fiscal policies, and gave a clear answer to which technology industries he is optimistic about.</p><p>Smart investors have compiled wonderful content and shared it with everyone.</p><p>Both Chinese and American technology stocks are quite expensive</p><p>But China's tech stocks have more stamina</p><p>What I just talked about is the whole world, and when it comes to China, China is now facing a good opportunity, that is, the new protagonist of the global asset shortage and the bull market of China's core assets, which is our annual strategy for 2020, with a clear-cut name.</p><p>Now it is obvious that such good technology stocks in the United States are not cheap, but also very expensive. Many people say that our technology stocks are also quite expensive, but when they are on the expensive side, look at the stamina, look at ROE, and look at your future growth space.</p><p>Growth stocks, especially technology-based growth stocks, don't look at static valuations. If you look at static valuations, you will never be able to buy them. They are all expensive.</p><p>Fisher is a master of growth stocks, and he never looks at growth stocks according to the valuation method of cyclical stocks. The biggest risk in the valuation of growth stocks is that he is a liar, he is not a growth stock, and he is not a technology stock.</p><p>Just like why after the crash in 2015, everyone found that many so-called technology stocks were so miserable later, falling even 70% to 80%, and sometimes even 90%. What is the reason? Because after this round of excitement, everyone found that it was falsified, and it was not technological.</p><p>At present, China's technology market is just in the ascendant, because at least at present, you can't falsify it. Although some leading companies in the system industry and these companies with technological content have expensive short-term static valuations, don't be focused. Now, we should focus on the economic environment, policy environment and the global capital flow behind the leaders in these system industries.</p><p>What is the economic environment behind it? In China's economic environment, deleveraging has made a great achievement, and the stage of subtraction has come to an end. What we need to consider now is to do addition and multiplication, and you can see that China's demand is still quite large, and our latecomer advantage is still very strong.</p><p>Although China's demographic dividend is exhausting, our engineer dividend is still very strong, and our capital investment in science and technology, whether in education, college students, or our annual investment in scientific research, is second only to the United States.</p><p>In the context of the possibility of overcapacity at every turn, what is really in line with China's high-quality development and has real demand is precisely those things with scientific and technological content, and those things with scientific and technological content have been summarized in the past two years. He summed up the growth point of the structure as Made in China 2025.</p><p>We still have to firmly remember that Made in China 2025 has one main line, four transformations, five major projects, eight strategies and ten major areas.</p><p>One main line is the deep integration of information technology and manufacturing technology, with digital, networked and intelligent manufacturing as the main line. This is a main line.</p><p>Made in China 2025 is not just the stupid and stupid manufacturing that everyone thinks. It is actually digital and intelligent manufacturing as the main line, with soft and hard,</p><p>Look at the ten major fields again, what new generation information technology and what high-end machine tools<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/300024\">Robot</a>, aerospace, marine engineering, high-tech ships, advanced orbits, energy-saving new energy, power equipment, new materials, biotechnology, etc., there are really hard and soft ones. From this perspective, we can see our real needs and the most efficient place.</p><p>Don't have buffalo hallucinations</p><p>This year's bull market is technology bull, structural bull</p><p>Back to the present, everyone is more worried about China's economy, and some people have started yy in the past two days, because the LPR has dropped today, and I have also answered a lot of phone calls, wondering if there will be a big release of water.</p><p>I have always reminded not to have this illusion of buffalo. Water will be released this year, but this year is not buffalo. This year's bull market is a technology bull market, a structural bull market, and a new core asset driven by advanced manufacturing.</p><p>Why do you say that? Because our current economic structure, tertiary industry and service industry are the main forces driving GDP, and from the perspective of employment, they are also tertiary industry service industry, so employment is the reason why we release water.</p><p>In the news of these two days, you can give him a string of these clues. What is very rare is that social security is reduced or exempted for 5 months. From February to June, as long as you participate in the social security plan, you can be exempted from paying for 5 months, involving an amount of 650 billion yuan.</p><p>Why is there such a big tax reduction? It is targeted. In order to prevent small and medium-sized enterprises from being under great pressure and not starting work, but they have to continue to help employees pay social security, which is under great pressure. Now he is in order to stabilize employment.</p><p>Unlike 2008, 2009 or 2016, as soon as the economic GDP came down, the National Development and Reform Commission and the Ministry of Finance fiercely engaged in infrastructure construction and released real estate.</p><p>Another thing is the monetary policy implementation report in the fourth quarter last night. The central bank also made it very clear that stimulating real estate will not be regarded as an important means to stabilize the economy in the short term. This is already very clear. Our strategic determination is stronger now than before, and the most important thing is economic restructuring. We not only want the economy to be stable, but at the same time we need long-term stability.</p><p>Therefore, even this year, one of the footholds of fiscal policy and monetary policy efforts should be scientific and technological infrastructure, not ordinary infrastructure. Ordinary infrastructure only guarantees the bottom and prevents the economy from landing hard, but the real more intensive infrastructure, It also includes the serious shortage of public medical equipment and facilities brought about by this epidemic.</p><p>Investment in 5G and semiconductors will also increase. This is the so-called scientific and technological infrastructure, which is not only conducive to short-term stable growth, but also conducive to employment, especially the employment of college students. At the same time, it can increase the efficiency of our future economic growth, especially the economic growth stamina is helpful. It's a level.</p><p>Second, from the perspective of funds, where can there be money to support economic transformation? Especially in the direction of high efficiency and high quality?</p><p>My answer is multi-level capital markets.</p><p>Don't expect to expand the balance sheet this time, because the three domestic tables are not very good now, and we can no longer condone leverage.</p><p>From a policy point of view, the relaxation time that can be compared this time is not 2016, 2008, or 2009, but the first four months of 2019. That is to say, after solving the short-term economic difficulties, we still have to go back to doing the long-term right thing.</p><p>I tend to say that from the perspective of capital flow, whether in the short term or long term, the most successful ones are still those with technological content, especially the manufacturing industry with technological content, especially the so-called Made in China 2025.</p><p>Advanced manufacturing and technology industries will expand in both directions</p><p>The multi-level capital market, especially the stock market, must be the multi-level capital market that can continue to bring growth funds.</p><p>Focusing on advanced manufacturing this year, the technology industry will expand in both directions. On the one hand, refinancing is more convenient, and some off-market industrial capital will enter the stock market through the primary market and the primary and semi-markets. This growth fund is very large.</p><p>That is to say, the capital market has changed from a starting point to an effective channel for allocating domestic idle funds and resources.</p><p>As long as there is a profit-making effect,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/603883\">Common people</a>The money also came in.</p><p>This is a very benign two-way expansion, and the direction is likely to be in accordance with the direction of national strategic thinking. You expect good things to come back cheap, which is a bit of a strategic mistake. Just like last year, people always want Maotai to be cheaper and then buy it cheaper, but it is just not cheap.</p><p>If you look at the valuation of technology stocks this year according to the valuation of 2018 and 2019, you will also make the same mistake as last year when you always used the valuation of the previous two years to look at Maotai.</p><p>This year, whether it is from overseas logic, or China's short-term domestic steady growth and the improvement of China's long-term economic benefits, the logic of these fundamentals, coupled with the logic of funds just mentioned, will make the market sustainable for several years. Not just this year, it may be similar to the United States from 2016 to the present.</p><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/GS\">Goldman Sachs</a>A report just came out two days ago, summarizing that in the past two years, the five major technology giants have basically taken the US index. Although China is not so concentrated now, we are taking the best industry leaders in the advanced manufacturing industry with the index.</p><p>Technology stock market will run through the year</p><p>But there will be twists and turns in the middle</p><p>Finally, I would like to add that although the market of technology stocks this year runs through the whole year, there will definitely be twists and turns in the middle. There are two reasons for the twists and turns:</p><p>The first aspect is the fluctuation of risk-free rate of return. From the Spring Festival to the present, the risk-free rate of return has returned from about 3% to the current 2.8% (measured by the 10-year Treasury Bond yield), which is still declining slowly. Judging from the one-year and three-year Treasury Bond yields, the short-term end is even more exaggerated.</p><p>This time is indeed a good day for technology stocks and growth stocks, but we should pay attention to the twists and turns behind.</p><p>For example, if work is fully resumed in March and April, the monetary policy should be matched with the fiscal policy, and the real economy's demand for the use of funds will increase. After the increase, the market interest rate may rise. However, the strength of the rise will be very weak, and it will not pose a big risk or adjustment to the market in March and April.</p><p>The downward trend of risk-free rate of return may enter a low fluctuation in March and April, instead of falling all the way down as it is now.</p><p>If technology stocks fluctuate in March and April, it will be a buying point. What to buy? According to the fundamentals, this fundamental is the core of our valuation of technology stocks. We must know that static valuation is not the core of our buying and selling technology stocks, but the fundamentals are. Good things are rare and expensive.</p><p>What is used to measure good stuff? January is called the wind and the grass. With such bad data in the first quarter, whose quarterly report is okay? What do you mean by making do? That is to say, the impact in February will be borne at home, but who can increase the volume and price from the fundamentals in March, and there is still the momentum for price increases? Niu companies can increase prices and increase their own output.</p><p>Therefore, in April, whose performance can meet expectations or exceed expectations, to put it bluntly, this is the leader that can run through the whole year, and even the leader in the next few years.</p><p>Because the crisis mode in the first quarter of this year was a good military parade, the strength of competitiveness at this time was clear at a glance. These leading companies with strong competitiveness will still last for several years and will be accompanied by the high-quality development of China's economy for a long time.</p><p>To sum up, releasing water is not forever, because it is restricted by external situations, asset bubbles, and inflation. The release of water, Buffalo is only short-lived, but with the optimization and adjustment of the economic structure, relatively more funds will be invested in the relatively optimized but relatively small structure. Structure is king, this is the core.</p><p>Five Directions for a Bull Market in Tech Stocks</p><p>Finally, the bull market of technology stocks may have a continuity of two or three years in the future, rather than a buffalo, it is an efficiency bull and a structural bull brought about by the improvement of economic structure.</p><p>My own opinion is the following five directions. Of course, the bull stocks inside are selected by high-quality fund companies and fund managers such as Wells Fargo Fund, but selecting the five directions from top to bottom is basically appropriate to Made in China 2025.</p><p>The first is information technology represented by 5G semiconductors. The so-called new generation information technology represented by 5G cloud, semiconductor, Internet, and Internet of Things is TMT.</p><p>The second is high-end manufacturing, which is represented by new energy vehicles.</p><p>The third is energy-saving new energy and new materials. Including clean energy, whether<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/000591\">Solar energy</a>, nuclear energy, or some energy-saving equipment, including new materials related to this, which can be combined with the application of new energy vehicles.</p><p>In addition, I just mentioned that the water release will not be sustained, because apart from internal inflation this year, we must be careful that our oil is in the hands of others. The old American oil is already exported, and the rise in oil prices is good for the United States, but not good for China and Europe.</p><p>China has always prepared for a rainy day. The so-called determination and strategic vision of a big country is energy conservation and new energy, which also has technical content. For example, recently, China also has comparative advantages in hydrogen energy, solar energy, and clean energy. This is the third.</p><p>The fourth one tends to some precision manufacturing, especially military industry. Precision manufacturing and TMT are still related. Whether it is some high-end machine tools, artificial intelligence equipment, drones, large aircraft, etc., these are all precision manufacturing.</p><p>The fifth direction is biomedicine and biotechnology.</p><p>These five directions, the first four directions, may be slightly better in the next stage, and biotechnology may be better in the second half of the year than in the second quarter, because due to the epidemic in the first quarter, biotechnology is already a little less confident. The next step It is necessary to make great efforts to make up for shortcomings and invest around public medical care. Therefore, biotechnology and biomedical opportunities in the second half of the year may be better than in the second quarter.</p><p>Generally speaking, for high-quality companies in these five directions, adjustment is the buying point, so don't be afraid of market fluctuations. To sum up, good things are not afraid of falling, not afraid of falling, and not afraid of falling. This is a characteristic of core assets that I have been talking about.</p><p>Whether it is the subtraction of the core assets of traditional industries in the past three years or the multiplication and addition in the next few years, it is a good thing that the core assets of advanced manufacturing and technology-based industries remain unchanged. Especially around such good things with clear fundamentals, we must insist on Qingshan and dare to allocate them when the market fluctuates.</p><p>Q&A session?</p><p>Q: How do you view January social financing?<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/HX\">And credit</a>Big more than expected? Is it good for financial real estate or technology stocks?</p><p>Zhang Yidong: This is the short-term and long-term. From the perspective of social financing, it is relatively more positive for value stocks to prevent the economy from having a hard landing.</p><p>Social financing in January this year, from the perspective of growth, local special bonds are a big part. These are all efforts to stabilize growth, because they are looking for core assets in technology stocks. I don't think the technology market in the next two or three years will be simple. It is equivalent to the buffalo, mad cow, and random speculation in 13 ~ 15 years, but it tends to be similar to a batch of the best ones in the United States after the 1980s, with only a few.</p><p>I estimate that many people buy technology stocks this year than value stocks. Buying technology stocks means buying \"technology stocks\" indiscriminately. Especially those who have chased high prices and bought all technology stocks in the past two days may be slapped on both sides this year and become dizzy.</p><p>If you do not have research ability yourself, the research of technology stocks is not based on static valuation, but from the perspective of an industry. If you are not an industry expert, it is difficult to grasp this overall valuation.</p><p>This kind of technology stock with a high static valuation, and even holding PE is not cheap, but the discounted forward cash flow of leading companies is really a porcelain job, and it requires diamonds.</p><p>Social financing is a backing role. It prevents China's economy from having a hard landing. Once it is not a hard landing, whether it is a leading company in a cyclical industry such as consumption or even real estate, their profits will not exceed expectations. cliff, and now the valuation is relatively cheap, or at least reasonably underestimated. There are even some valuation ratios of leading companies in traditional industries. These can be completely based on static valuation and TTM valuation, because their profits are stable and predictable. As long as the Chinese economy is not a systematic stall, they Act as a stabilizer, you can compare it with bonds to see the cost performance.</p><p>From the current point of view, whether it is a leading company that can't die in the real estate industry, or a return rate of more than 5% in the financial industry or traditional industries, it is more cost-effective for ordinary investors to make a little money. It is safer for ordinary investors to buy value stocks this year, because the risk-free rate of return is low. For those leading companies in traditional industries, it is better than bonds and better than you buy wealth management products.</p><p>Social financing has little impact on technology stocks. Because the rise of technology stocks is more caused by two factors, one is that the interest rate of funds remains unchanged and the rate of return continues to decline; The second piece is related to some regulatory policies, that is, add water if there is more noodles, and add noodles if there is more water. As long as there is a profit-making effect in this market, some incremental money will continue to come in, and the structural market will continue.</p><p>In the last summary, my view on this year's market is that the index is a balanced market, not a bull market or a bear market. Don't expect a big bull market when it rises. The Shanghai Composite Index in the so-called bull market will rise by at least 20% a year, and the Shanghai Composite Index can't see it, because the economy is only a bottom stabilization, not a hard landing.</p><p><div></div><div></div><div></div></body></html></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> source：<a href=\"http://cj.sina.cn/article/normal_detail?url=https://k.sina.cn/article_6176407506_170247fd201900m6va.html\">全景财经</a></p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/753c9aba3202037bc97463c545d5d015","relate_stocks":{"600519":"贵州茅台","TTTN":"老虎中美互联网巨头ETF","03086":"华夏纳指","QNETCN":"纳斯达克中美互联网老虎指数"},"source_url":"http://cj.sina.cn/article/normal_detail?url=https://k.sina.cn/article_6176407506_170247fd201900m6va.html","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2014866596","content_text":"来源：聪明投资者（ID：Capital-nature）“我一直提醒不要有水牛的这种幻觉，今年会放水，但是今年不是水牛，今年的牛市是科技牛，是结构性牛市，是以先进制造业为驱动的新的核心资产。”“财政政策，货币政策着力的一个落脚点也应该是科技基建，不是普通的那种基建。”“今年科技股的行情虽然是贯穿全年，但在中间一定会有波折。”“三四月份如果科技股有波动，那会是个买点。”以上，是兴业证券全球首席策略分析师张忆东，今天在和富国基金量化投资部首席策略分析师、基金经理张圣贤的一场对话中，给出的最新精彩观点。张圣贤是富国基金量化投资部首席策略分析师、基金经理。管理包括富国中证军工、富国国企改革、富国智能汽车等在内的多只主题行业指数基金。在本次对话和问答中，张忆东分享了他对于2020年科技股的看法，对货币财政政策也给出了他的分析，对于看好哪些科技类行业，也给出了明确的答案。聪明投资者整理了精彩内容，分享给大家。中美科技股都挺贵但中国的科技股更有后劲刚才讲的是全球，落实到中国，中国现在面临着一个好的机会，就是全球资产荒和中国核心资产牛市的新主角，就是我们2020年的年度策略，名字就旗帜鲜明。现在很明显，美国的这种好的科技股不便宜，也很贵的。很多人讲我们的科技股也挺贵的，但是都偏贵的情况下看后劲，看ROE，看你未来的增长空间。成长股，特别是科技型的成长股，静态估值是不要看的，你要看静态估值永远下不了手，都是贵的。费雪是个成长股的大师，从来不会按照周期股的这种估值方式来看成长股，成长股估值最大的风险，在于他是一个骗子，他不是成长股，他不是科技股。就像为什么2015年崩盘之后，大家发现很多所谓的科技股后来好惨，跌了甚至百分之七八十，甚至有时候还跌了90%的，原因是什么？因为这一轮亢奋之后，大家发现说它被证伪了，他没有科技性的。中国目前科技行情刚刚是方兴未艾，因为至少目前你无法证伪，系统行业的一些龙头、这些有科技含量的公司，虽然他短期静态估值贵，千万不要被迷惑，我们现在要将重点是聚焦于这些系统行业的龙头背后的经济环境、政策环境以及全球的这种资金的流动。那什么叫做背后的经济环境？中国的经济环境，去杠杆已经取得了很大的一个成就，做减法的阶段已经告一段落，现在要考虑的是做加法乘法的事儿，而这些你可以看到中国的需求还是蛮大的，而且我们后发优势还是很强的。虽然中国人口红利在衰竭，但是我们工程师红利还是很强的，而且我们的资本对于科技的投入，无论是从教育、大学生这些，还是我们每年投入到科研方面的资金是仅次于美国的。在动辄就有可能产能过剩的背景下，真正的符合中国高质量发展的，有实实在在需求的恰恰是那些有科技含量的东西，而那些有科技含量的东西，前两年已经总结了，结构的增长点他总结一个词叫做中国制造2025。我们还是要牢牢记住，中国制造2025一条主线、四个转变、五大工程、八项战略，十大领域。一条主线就是以信息技术和制造业技术深度融合，以数字化、网络化、智能化的制造为主线，这是一条主线。中国的制造2025不只是大家想的傻大笨粗的制造，他其实是数字化、智能化制造为主线，有软有硬的、你再看十大领域，什么新一代信息技术、什么高端机床机器人、航空航天、海洋工程、高技术船舶、先进的轨道、节能新能源、电力设备、新材料、生物科技等等，真的有硬的有软的。从这个角度也就看到了我们实实在在的需求，最有效率的地方。不要有水牛的幻觉今年的牛市是科技牛、结构牛回到现在，大家都比较担心中国的经济，而且这两天有人开始yy，因为今天LPR降了，我也接了不少电话，觉得说会不会大放水的了。我一直提醒不要有水牛的这种幻觉，今年会放水，但是今年不是水牛，今年的牛市是科技牛，是结构性牛市，是以先进制造业为驱动的新的核心资产。为什么这么讲？因为我们现在的经济结构以及第三产业和服务业是推动GDP主要的力量了，而且从就业的角度来说也是第三产业服务业，所以就业才是我们放水的原因。这两天的新闻，你可以把这些线索给他串一串。很罕见的是减免社保5个月，从2月份到6月份，只要你参与社保计划的企业就可以5个月免交，涉及的金额6500亿。为什么有这么大的一个减税的力度，就是有针对性的，为了防止的那种中小企业的压力大，没有开工，但是还要继续的去帮助员工缴社保，压力就很大，现在他就为了稳就业。不像2008年、2009年或者2016年，只要经济GDP一下来，发改委，财政部就猛搞基建，大放房地产。再有一个事，就是昨天晚上四季度的货币政策执行报告，央行也很明确，不把刺激房地产作为短期稳定经济的重要手段，这就已经很明确了，我们现在战略定力比以前要强了，最关键还是经济结构调整，我们既要经济能稳住，但同时又要有长治久安。所以就算是今年，财政政策，货币政策着力的一个落脚点也应该是科技基建，不是普通的那种基建，普通的基建只是保底托底，不让经济硬着陆，而真正的更大力度的基建，也包括这次疫情带来的公共医疗的设备设施严重不足。还有包括5G、半导体这些的投入都会加大的，这就是所谓科技基建，既利于短期稳增长，又利于就业，特别是大学生就业，同时又能够对我们未来增经济增长的效率，特别是经济增长后劲是有帮助的。这是一个层面。第二，从资金的层面，哪些地方能够有钱可以去支持经济的转型？特别是向高效率、高质量的方向发展？我的答案是多层次资本市场。这一次不要指望说扩张资产负债表，因为现在国内的三张表都不太好，不能够再纵容加杠杆。从政策的角度来说，这一次能够类比的放松时间不是2016年、2008年、2009年，而是2019年的前4个月。也就是说解决经济短期的困难之后，还是要回到做长期正确的事。我倾向于说从资金的流向来看，无论是短期还是长期，最胜利的依然是有科技含量的，特别是有科技含量的制造业，特别是所谓的中国制造2025那一类的东西。先进制造业、科技行业会是双向扩容而能够持续带来增长资金的一定是多层次资本市场，特别是股市。今年围绕着先进制造业，科技行业会是双向扩容。一方面再融资更加便利化，会有一些场外的产业资本透过一级市场和一级半市场进入到股市来，这个增长资金非常大的。也就相当于说，资本市场从一个抓手，变成一个有效的配置国内闲散资金、配置资源的一个通道。只要有赚钱效应，老百姓的钱也就进来了。这就是一个很良性的双向扩容，而且方向大概率是按照国家战略思考的方向。你指望好东西回到很便宜，那有点犯战略错误，就好比去年，大家老是想茅台便宜一点再买便宜点再买，它就是不便宜。如果大家再按照2018、2019年的估值来看今年科技股的估值，也会犯类似于去年老是用前两年的估值看茅台一样的错误。今年无论是从海外的逻辑，还是说中国国内短期稳增长以及长期中国经济效益的提升，这些基本面的逻辑，再叠加刚才提到的资金面的逻辑，都会使得行情的持续性数年有望。不只是今年一年，有可能类似于美国从2016年到现在。高盛前两天刚出了一个报告，总结了这两年基本上就是5大科技巨头带着美国指数走的。中国虽然现在不是那么集中，但我们恰恰是以先进制造业里面最优秀的行业龙头带着指数走。科技股行情将贯穿全年但中间一定会有波折最后再补充一下，今年科技股的行情虽然是贯穿全年，但在中间一定会有波折。波折的原因有两个方面：第1个方面是无风险收益率的波动。从春节到现在，无风险收益率一路从3%左右回到了现在的2.8%（以10年期国债收益率来衡量），这还是降的慢。以一年期、三年期的国债收益率来看，短端更加夸张。这个时候的确是科技股、成长股好日子，但是我们要关注后面的波折。打个比方，三四月份如果全面复工，货币政策要跟财政政策相配套，实体经济对资金的使用需求就增强增多，增多了以后对于市场利率就有可能抬升。但是抬升的力度会很弱，三四月份不会构成市场的大风险，大调整。无风险收益率趋势性的下行，到三四月份可能会进入到低位波动，而不是像现在一路向下打。三四月份如果科技股有波动，那会是个买点，买什么？要根据基本面，这个基本面才是我们买科技股估值（的核心），一定要知道静态估值不是我们买卖科技股的核心，基本面才是。好东西，物为稀为贵。用什么来衡量好东西？1月份叫疾风知劲草，在一季度数据这样糟糕的情况下，谁的一季报还凑合？什么叫凑合？也就是2月份受的影响在家都承受，但是谁能够在3月份从基本面上面量价提升，还有涨价的动能嘛，牛的公司就能涨价，并且把自己的产量提高。所以4月份，谁的业绩能够符合预期或者超预期的，说白了这就是能够贯穿全年的龙头，甚至是未来数年的龙头。因为今年一季度危机模式下是一个很好的阅兵式，这个时候竞争力的强弱就一目了然了。竞争力强的这些龙头公司，它仍然会贯穿数年，会较长时间伴随着中国经济高质量发展。总结一下，放水不是永远，因为它受到外部形势、资产泡沫、通胀的制约。放水，水牛只是短暂的，但是经济结构的优化、调整，相对多的资金反而会投入到相对优化的但是又相对少的结构中去。结构为王，这才是核心。科技股牛市的五个方向最后说一下，科技股牛市未来可能有个两三年的延续性，而不是水牛，是经济结构改善所带来的效率牛、结构牛。我自己的看法是这样5个方向，当然，里边的牛股是由富国基金这些优质的基金公司、基金经理来选的，但是自上而下选5个方向基本上就是跟中国制造2025贴切的。第1个，5G半导体为代表的信息技术。所谓的5G云、半导体、互联网、物联网为代表的新一代信息技术，就是TMT。第2个就是高端制造，高端制造又是以新能源车为代表。第3个是节能新能源，新材料。包括清洁能源，无论是太阳能，核能，还是一些节能的设备，包括与此相关的新材料，它和新能源车的应用是可以结合的。另外，我刚才提到了放水不持续，因为今年除了内部有通胀之外，还要小心我们的油掌握在别人手中。而老美石油已经是出口了，油价的上涨有利于美国，不利于中国和欧洲。中国向来是未雨绸缪，所谓的大国定力和战略眼光就是节能新能源，这个也是有技术含量的。比如说最近的氢能、太阳能、清洁能源这些，中国也有相对优势，这是第3个。第4个倾向于一些精密制造，特别是军工。精密制造和TMT还是相联系的，无论是一些高端的机床，还是人工智能设备，无人机、大飞机等等，这些都是精密制造。第5个方向，生物医药，生物科技。这5个方向，前4个方向，下个阶段可能会略好，而生物科技下半年可能会比二季度要好一些，因为一季度由于疫情的原因，生物科技已经有点不太自信了，下一步就要围绕着公共医疗进行大力度的补短板、投入。所以下半年生物科技、生物医疗机会可能会比二季度要好一点。总体来说这5个方向里面的优质公司，调整就是买入点，市场的波动不要怕。总结起来就是好东西就不怕跌，跌不怕，怕不跌，这我一直讲的核心资产的一个特征。无论是过去三年来对传统行业的核心资产做减法，还是说未来几年的做乘法和加法，这种先进制造业、科技型行业的核心资产依然不变的是好东西。特别是围绕着基本面明确的这种好东西，要咬定青山，在市场波动的时候要敢于去配置。问答环节？问：如何看待一月社融和信贷大超预期？是利好金融地产还是利好科技股？张忆东：这就是短期和长期了吧，从社融的角度来说，让经济不至于有一个失足硬着陆的风险，相对来说，对于价值股是更正面的。今年1月份的社融，从增长的角度，地方专项债的是个大头，这些都是属于稳增长的力度，因为是找科技股里边的核心资产，我并不认为未来两三年的科技行情简单等同于13~15年的什么水牛、疯牛、乱炒的那一个，而是倾向于是一个类似于美国80年代以后一批最优秀的这种，只有少数的。我估计今年很多人买科技股还不如买价值股的。买科技股就是自己乱买“科技股”，特别是这两天追高买所有科技股的人，有可能在今年不断的两边挨巴掌，被抽的晕头转向。如果你自己没有研究能力，科技股的研究不是按照静态估值，而是从一个产业的角度来思考，你如果不是一个产业专家，很难把握住这种整体估值。静态估值在高位，甚至抱着PE也不便宜的这种科技股，但是龙头公司的远期现金流折现真的是个瓷器活，要有金刚钻的。社融它是个托底的作用，它使得中国经济不至于硬着陆，而一旦不是硬着陆，无论是消费，甚至是地产那种周期行业的龙头公司，他们的盈利就不会产生了超预期的断崖，而现在估值又相对便宜，或者至少是合理偏低估的。甚至有一些传统行业的龙头公司的估值比，他们这些是完全可以看静态估值、TTM估值的，因为他们盈利的稳定性、可预测性强，只要中国经济不是一个系统性的失速，他们起到一个稳定器的作用，就可以跟债券比较看性价比。从现在的角度来说，无论是地产里面死不了的龙头公司，金融行业、传统行业里面的收益率超过5%的，对于普通投资者赚点小钱性价比更好。普通投资者今年买价值股更稳妥，因为无风险收益率在低位，那些传统行业的龙头公司，它比债券强，比你买理财产品要强。社融这一块跟科技股影响不大。因为科技股的上涨更多由两块因素导致的，一块就是资金利率不变，收益率的不断的下行；第2块是和一些监管政策，也就是面多了加水，水多了加面，只要这个行情里面不断有赚钱效应，就会源源不断的有一些增量的钱进来，结构性行情会持续。最后上一个总结，我对今年的行情看法，指数是平衡市，不是牛市也不是熊市，不要指望着一涨就是大牛市，所谓的牛市的上证综指一年至少涨幅超过20%，上证综指看不到，因为经济的只是一个底部企稳，不是硬着陆。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"600519":0.6,"QNETCN":0.6,"03086":0.6,"TTTN":0.6}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1892,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":980484639,"gmtCreate":1582595418421,"gmtModify":1705428876786,"author":{"id":"3457235060590479","authorId":"3457235060590479","name":"自在飞花轻似梦","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e2f19a6498814b6532a45b67806a8b2a","crmLevel":5,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3457235060590479","authorIdStr":"3457235060590479"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"?","listText":"?","text":"?","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/980484639","repostId":"1194164958","repostType":2,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2254,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":980917955,"gmtCreate":1582160433677,"gmtModify":1705427969000,"author":{"id":"3457235060590479","authorId":"3457235060590479","name":"自在飞花轻似梦","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e2f19a6498814b6532a45b67806a8b2a","crmLevel":5,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3457235060590479","authorIdStr":"3457235060590479"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"?","listText":"?","text":"?","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/980917955","repostId":"1163103822","repostType":2,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1486,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0}],"hots":[{"id":983148601,"gmtCreate":1583195946503,"gmtModify":1705289730033,"author":{"id":"3457235060590479","authorId":"3457235060590479","name":"自在飞花轻似梦","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e2f19a6498814b6532a45b67806a8b2a","crmLevel":5,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3457235060590479","idStr":"3457235060590479"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"?","listText":"?","text":"?","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/983148601","repostId":"2014866596","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"2014866596","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1582634241,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/2014866596?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2020-02-25 20:37","market":"sh","language":"zh","title":"Zhang Yidong's latest speech: Don't have the illusion of buffalo, if there is fluctuation in technology stocks in March and April, it is a buying point","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2014866596","media":"全景财经","summary":"来源：聪明投资者（ID：Capital-nature）“我一直提醒不要有水牛的这种幻觉，今年会放水，但是今年不是水牛，今年的牛市是科技牛，是结构性牛市，是以先进制造业为驱动的新的核心资产。”“财政政策","content":"<p><html><body><div></div><div></div>Source: Smart Investor (ID: Capital-nature)</p><p>\"I have always reminded not to have this illusion of buffalo. Water will be released this year, but this year is not buffalo. This year's bull market is a technological bull market, a structural bull market, and a new core asset driven by advanced manufacturing.\"</p><p>\"One of the footholds of fiscal policy and monetary policy should also be scientific and technological infrastructure, not ordinary infrastructure.\"</p><p>\"Although the market of technology stocks this year runs through the whole year, there will definitely be twists and turns in the middle.\"</p><p>\"If there is volatility in technology stocks in March and April, it will be a buying point.\"</p><p>Above, is<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/601377\">Industrial Securities</a>Zhang Yidong, the global chief strategist, gave the latest wonderful views in a conversation with Zhang Shengxian, the chief strategist and fund manager of the quantitative investment department of Wells Fargo Fund today.</p><p>Zhang Shengxian is the chief strategist and fund manager of the quantitative investment department of Wells Fargo Fund. Manage a number of thematic industry index funds including Fuguo CSI Military Industry, Fuguo State-owned Enterprise Reform, Fuguo Smart Car, etc.</p><p>In this dialogue and question and answer, Zhang Yidong shared his views on technology stocks in 2020, gave his analysis of monetary and fiscal policies, and gave a clear answer to which technology industries he is optimistic about.</p><p>Smart investors have compiled wonderful content and shared it with everyone.</p><p>Both Chinese and American technology stocks are quite expensive</p><p>But China's tech stocks have more stamina</p><p>What I just talked about is the whole world, and when it comes to China, China is now facing a good opportunity, that is, the new protagonist of the global asset shortage and the bull market of China's core assets, which is our annual strategy for 2020, with a clear-cut name.</p><p>Now it is obvious that such good technology stocks in the United States are not cheap, but also very expensive. Many people say that our technology stocks are also quite expensive, but when they are on the expensive side, look at the stamina, look at ROE, and look at your future growth space.</p><p>Growth stocks, especially technology-based growth stocks, don't look at static valuations. If you look at static valuations, you will never be able to buy them. They are all expensive.</p><p>Fisher is a master of growth stocks, and he never looks at growth stocks according to the valuation method of cyclical stocks. The biggest risk in the valuation of growth stocks is that he is a liar, he is not a growth stock, and he is not a technology stock.</p><p>Just like why after the crash in 2015, everyone found that many so-called technology stocks were so miserable later, falling even 70% to 80%, and sometimes even 90%. What is the reason? Because after this round of excitement, everyone found that it was falsified, and it was not technological.</p><p>At present, China's technology market is just in the ascendant, because at least at present, you can't falsify it. Although some leading companies in the system industry and these companies with technological content have expensive short-term static valuations, don't be focused. Now, we should focus on the economic environment, policy environment and the global capital flow behind the leaders in these system industries.</p><p>What is the economic environment behind it? In China's economic environment, deleveraging has made a great achievement, and the stage of subtraction has come to an end. What we need to consider now is to do addition and multiplication, and you can see that China's demand is still quite large, and our latecomer advantage is still very strong.</p><p>Although China's demographic dividend is exhausting, our engineer dividend is still very strong, and our capital investment in science and technology, whether in education, college students, or our annual investment in scientific research, is second only to the United States.</p><p>In the context of the possibility of overcapacity at every turn, what is really in line with China's high-quality development and has real demand is precisely those things with scientific and technological content, and those things with scientific and technological content have been summarized in the past two years. He summed up the growth point of the structure as Made in China 2025.</p><p>We still have to firmly remember that Made in China 2025 has one main line, four transformations, five major projects, eight strategies and ten major areas.</p><p>One main line is the deep integration of information technology and manufacturing technology, with digital, networked and intelligent manufacturing as the main line. This is a main line.</p><p>Made in China 2025 is not just the stupid and stupid manufacturing that everyone thinks. It is actually digital and intelligent manufacturing as the main line, with soft and hard,</p><p>Look at the ten major fields again, what new generation information technology and what high-end machine tools<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/300024\">Robot</a>, aerospace, marine engineering, high-tech ships, advanced orbits, energy-saving new energy, power equipment, new materials, biotechnology, etc., there are really hard and soft ones. From this perspective, we can see our real needs and the most efficient place.</p><p>Don't have buffalo hallucinations</p><p>This year's bull market is technology bull, structural bull</p><p>Back to the present, everyone is more worried about China's economy, and some people have started yy in the past two days, because the LPR has dropped today, and I have also answered a lot of phone calls, wondering if there will be a big release of water.</p><p>I have always reminded not to have this illusion of buffalo. Water will be released this year, but this year is not buffalo. This year's bull market is a technology bull market, a structural bull market, and a new core asset driven by advanced manufacturing.</p><p>Why do you say that? Because our current economic structure, tertiary industry and service industry are the main forces driving GDP, and from the perspective of employment, they are also tertiary industry service industry, so employment is the reason why we release water.</p><p>In the news of these two days, you can give him a string of these clues. What is very rare is that social security is reduced or exempted for 5 months. From February to June, as long as you participate in the social security plan, you can be exempted from paying for 5 months, involving an amount of 650 billion yuan.</p><p>Why is there such a big tax reduction? It is targeted. In order to prevent small and medium-sized enterprises from being under great pressure and not starting work, but they have to continue to help employees pay social security, which is under great pressure. Now he is in order to stabilize employment.</p><p>Unlike 2008, 2009 or 2016, as soon as the economic GDP came down, the National Development and Reform Commission and the Ministry of Finance fiercely engaged in infrastructure construction and released real estate.</p><p>Another thing is the monetary policy implementation report in the fourth quarter last night. The central bank also made it very clear that stimulating real estate will not be regarded as an important means to stabilize the economy in the short term. This is already very clear. Our strategic determination is stronger now than before, and the most important thing is economic restructuring. We not only want the economy to be stable, but at the same time we need long-term stability.</p><p>Therefore, even this year, one of the footholds of fiscal policy and monetary policy efforts should be scientific and technological infrastructure, not ordinary infrastructure. Ordinary infrastructure only guarantees the bottom and prevents the economy from landing hard, but the real more intensive infrastructure, It also includes the serious shortage of public medical equipment and facilities brought about by this epidemic.</p><p>Investment in 5G and semiconductors will also increase. This is the so-called scientific and technological infrastructure, which is not only conducive to short-term stable growth, but also conducive to employment, especially the employment of college students. At the same time, it can increase the efficiency of our future economic growth, especially the economic growth stamina is helpful. It's a level.</p><p>Second, from the perspective of funds, where can there be money to support economic transformation? Especially in the direction of high efficiency and high quality?</p><p>My answer is multi-level capital markets.</p><p>Don't expect to expand the balance sheet this time, because the three domestic tables are not very good now, and we can no longer condone leverage.</p><p>From a policy point of view, the relaxation time that can be compared this time is not 2016, 2008, or 2009, but the first four months of 2019. That is to say, after solving the short-term economic difficulties, we still have to go back to doing the long-term right thing.</p><p>I tend to say that from the perspective of capital flow, whether in the short term or long term, the most successful ones are still those with technological content, especially the manufacturing industry with technological content, especially the so-called Made in China 2025.</p><p>Advanced manufacturing and technology industries will expand in both directions</p><p>The multi-level capital market, especially the stock market, must be the multi-level capital market that can continue to bring growth funds.</p><p>Focusing on advanced manufacturing this year, the technology industry will expand in both directions. On the one hand, refinancing is more convenient, and some off-market industrial capital will enter the stock market through the primary market and the primary and semi-markets. This growth fund is very large.</p><p>That is to say, the capital market has changed from a starting point to an effective channel for allocating domestic idle funds and resources.</p><p>As long as there is a profit-making effect,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/603883\">Common people</a>The money also came in.</p><p>This is a very benign two-way expansion, and the direction is likely to be in accordance with the direction of national strategic thinking. You expect good things to come back cheap, which is a bit of a strategic mistake. Just like last year, people always want Maotai to be cheaper and then buy it cheaper, but it is just not cheap.</p><p>If you look at the valuation of technology stocks this year according to the valuation of 2018 and 2019, you will also make the same mistake as last year when you always used the valuation of the previous two years to look at Maotai.</p><p>This year, whether it is from overseas logic, or China's short-term domestic steady growth and the improvement of China's long-term economic benefits, the logic of these fundamentals, coupled with the logic of funds just mentioned, will make the market sustainable for several years. Not just this year, it may be similar to the United States from 2016 to the present.</p><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/GS\">Goldman Sachs</a>A report just came out two days ago, summarizing that in the past two years, the five major technology giants have basically taken the US index. Although China is not so concentrated now, we are taking the best industry leaders in the advanced manufacturing industry with the index.</p><p>Technology stock market will run through the year</p><p>But there will be twists and turns in the middle</p><p>Finally, I would like to add that although the market of technology stocks this year runs through the whole year, there will definitely be twists and turns in the middle. There are two reasons for the twists and turns:</p><p>The first aspect is the fluctuation of risk-free rate of return. From the Spring Festival to the present, the risk-free rate of return has returned from about 3% to the current 2.8% (measured by the 10-year Treasury Bond yield), which is still declining slowly. Judging from the one-year and three-year Treasury Bond yields, the short-term end is even more exaggerated.</p><p>This time is indeed a good day for technology stocks and growth stocks, but we should pay attention to the twists and turns behind.</p><p>For example, if work is fully resumed in March and April, the monetary policy should be matched with the fiscal policy, and the real economy's demand for the use of funds will increase. After the increase, the market interest rate may rise. However, the strength of the rise will be very weak, and it will not pose a big risk or adjustment to the market in March and April.</p><p>The downward trend of risk-free rate of return may enter a low fluctuation in March and April, instead of falling all the way down as it is now.</p><p>If technology stocks fluctuate in March and April, it will be a buying point. What to buy? According to the fundamentals, this fundamental is the core of our valuation of technology stocks. We must know that static valuation is not the core of our buying and selling technology stocks, but the fundamentals are. Good things are rare and expensive.</p><p>What is used to measure good stuff? January is called the wind and the grass. With such bad data in the first quarter, whose quarterly report is okay? What do you mean by making do? That is to say, the impact in February will be borne at home, but who can increase the volume and price from the fundamentals in March, and there is still the momentum for price increases? Niu companies can increase prices and increase their own output.</p><p>Therefore, in April, whose performance can meet expectations or exceed expectations, to put it bluntly, this is the leader that can run through the whole year, and even the leader in the next few years.</p><p>Because the crisis mode in the first quarter of this year was a good military parade, the strength of competitiveness at this time was clear at a glance. These leading companies with strong competitiveness will still last for several years and will be accompanied by the high-quality development of China's economy for a long time.</p><p>To sum up, releasing water is not forever, because it is restricted by external situations, asset bubbles, and inflation. The release of water, Buffalo is only short-lived, but with the optimization and adjustment of the economic structure, relatively more funds will be invested in the relatively optimized but relatively small structure. Structure is king, this is the core.</p><p>Five Directions for a Bull Market in Tech Stocks</p><p>Finally, the bull market of technology stocks may have a continuity of two or three years in the future, rather than a buffalo, it is an efficiency bull and a structural bull brought about by the improvement of economic structure.</p><p>My own opinion is the following five directions. Of course, the bull stocks inside are selected by high-quality fund companies and fund managers such as Wells Fargo Fund, but selecting the five directions from top to bottom is basically appropriate to Made in China 2025.</p><p>The first is information technology represented by 5G semiconductors. The so-called new generation information technology represented by 5G cloud, semiconductor, Internet, and Internet of Things is TMT.</p><p>The second is high-end manufacturing, which is represented by new energy vehicles.</p><p>The third is energy-saving new energy and new materials. Including clean energy, whether<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/000591\">Solar energy</a>, nuclear energy, or some energy-saving equipment, including new materials related to this, which can be combined with the application of new energy vehicles.</p><p>In addition, I just mentioned that the water release will not be sustained, because apart from internal inflation this year, we must be careful that our oil is in the hands of others. The old American oil is already exported, and the rise in oil prices is good for the United States, but not good for China and Europe.</p><p>China has always prepared for a rainy day. The so-called determination and strategic vision of a big country is energy conservation and new energy, which also has technical content. For example, recently, China also has comparative advantages in hydrogen energy, solar energy, and clean energy. This is the third.</p><p>The fourth one tends to some precision manufacturing, especially military industry. Precision manufacturing and TMT are still related. Whether it is some high-end machine tools, artificial intelligence equipment, drones, large aircraft, etc., these are all precision manufacturing.</p><p>The fifth direction is biomedicine and biotechnology.</p><p>These five directions, the first four directions, may be slightly better in the next stage, and biotechnology may be better in the second half of the year than in the second quarter, because due to the epidemic in the first quarter, biotechnology is already a little less confident. The next step It is necessary to make great efforts to make up for shortcomings and invest around public medical care. Therefore, biotechnology and biomedical opportunities in the second half of the year may be better than in the second quarter.</p><p>Generally speaking, for high-quality companies in these five directions, adjustment is the buying point, so don't be afraid of market fluctuations. To sum up, good things are not afraid of falling, not afraid of falling, and not afraid of falling. This is a characteristic of core assets that I have been talking about.</p><p>Whether it is the subtraction of the core assets of traditional industries in the past three years or the multiplication and addition in the next few years, it is a good thing that the core assets of advanced manufacturing and technology-based industries remain unchanged. Especially around such good things with clear fundamentals, we must insist on Qingshan and dare to allocate them when the market fluctuates.</p><p>Q&A session?</p><p>Q: How do you view January social financing?<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/HX\">And credit</a>Big more than expected? Is it good for financial real estate or technology stocks?</p><p>Zhang Yidong: This is the short-term and long-term. From the perspective of social financing, it is relatively more positive for value stocks to prevent the economy from having a hard landing.</p><p>Social financing in January this year, from the perspective of growth, local special bonds are a big part. These are all efforts to stabilize growth, because they are looking for core assets in technology stocks. I don't think the technology market in the next two or three years will be simple. It is equivalent to the buffalo, mad cow, and random speculation in 13 ~ 15 years, but it tends to be similar to a batch of the best ones in the United States after the 1980s, with only a few.</p><p>I estimate that many people buy technology stocks this year than value stocks. Buying technology stocks means buying \"technology stocks\" indiscriminately. Especially those who have chased high prices and bought all technology stocks in the past two days may be slapped on both sides this year and become dizzy.</p><p>If you do not have research ability yourself, the research of technology stocks is not based on static valuation, but from the perspective of an industry. If you are not an industry expert, it is difficult to grasp this overall valuation.</p><p>This kind of technology stock with a high static valuation, and even holding PE is not cheap, but the discounted forward cash flow of leading companies is really a porcelain job, and it requires diamonds.</p><p>Social financing is a backing role. It prevents China's economy from having a hard landing. Once it is not a hard landing, whether it is a leading company in a cyclical industry such as consumption or even real estate, their profits will not exceed expectations. cliff, and now the valuation is relatively cheap, or at least reasonably underestimated. There are even some valuation ratios of leading companies in traditional industries. These can be completely based on static valuation and TTM valuation, because their profits are stable and predictable. As long as the Chinese economy is not a systematic stall, they Act as a stabilizer, you can compare it with bonds to see the cost performance.</p><p>From the current point of view, whether it is a leading company that can't die in the real estate industry, or a return rate of more than 5% in the financial industry or traditional industries, it is more cost-effective for ordinary investors to make a little money. It is safer for ordinary investors to buy value stocks this year, because the risk-free rate of return is low. For those leading companies in traditional industries, it is better than bonds and better than you buy wealth management products.</p><p>Social financing has little impact on technology stocks. Because the rise of technology stocks is more caused by two factors, one is that the interest rate of funds remains unchanged and the rate of return continues to decline; The second piece is related to some regulatory policies, that is, add water if there is more noodles, and add noodles if there is more water. As long as there is a profit-making effect in this market, some incremental money will continue to come in, and the structural market will continue.</p><p>In the last summary, my view on this year's market is that the index is a balanced market, not a bull market or a bear market. Don't expect a big bull market when it rises. The Shanghai Composite Index in the so-called bull market will rise by at least 20% a year, and the Shanghai Composite Index can't see it, because the economy is only a bottom stabilization, not a hard landing.</p><p><div></div><div></div><div></div></body></html></p>","source":"sina_symbol","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Zhang Yidong's latest speech: Don't have the illusion of buffalo, if there is fluctuation in technology stocks in March and April, it is a buying point</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nZhang Yidong's latest speech: Don't have the illusion of buffalo, if there is fluctuation in technology stocks in March and April, it is a buying point\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">全景财经</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2020-02-25 20:37</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><html><body><div></div><div></div>Source: Smart Investor (ID: Capital-nature)</p><p>\"I have always reminded not to have this illusion of buffalo. Water will be released this year, but this year is not buffalo. This year's bull market is a technological bull market, a structural bull market, and a new core asset driven by advanced manufacturing.\"</p><p>\"One of the footholds of fiscal policy and monetary policy should also be scientific and technological infrastructure, not ordinary infrastructure.\"</p><p>\"Although the market of technology stocks this year runs through the whole year, there will definitely be twists and turns in the middle.\"</p><p>\"If there is volatility in technology stocks in March and April, it will be a buying point.\"</p><p>Above, is<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/601377\">Industrial Securities</a>Zhang Yidong, the global chief strategist, gave the latest wonderful views in a conversation with Zhang Shengxian, the chief strategist and fund manager of the quantitative investment department of Wells Fargo Fund today.</p><p>Zhang Shengxian is the chief strategist and fund manager of the quantitative investment department of Wells Fargo Fund. Manage a number of thematic industry index funds including Fuguo CSI Military Industry, Fuguo State-owned Enterprise Reform, Fuguo Smart Car, etc.</p><p>In this dialogue and question and answer, Zhang Yidong shared his views on technology stocks in 2020, gave his analysis of monetary and fiscal policies, and gave a clear answer to which technology industries he is optimistic about.</p><p>Smart investors have compiled wonderful content and shared it with everyone.</p><p>Both Chinese and American technology stocks are quite expensive</p><p>But China's tech stocks have more stamina</p><p>What I just talked about is the whole world, and when it comes to China, China is now facing a good opportunity, that is, the new protagonist of the global asset shortage and the bull market of China's core assets, which is our annual strategy for 2020, with a clear-cut name.</p><p>Now it is obvious that such good technology stocks in the United States are not cheap, but also very expensive. Many people say that our technology stocks are also quite expensive, but when they are on the expensive side, look at the stamina, look at ROE, and look at your future growth space.</p><p>Growth stocks, especially technology-based growth stocks, don't look at static valuations. If you look at static valuations, you will never be able to buy them. They are all expensive.</p><p>Fisher is a master of growth stocks, and he never looks at growth stocks according to the valuation method of cyclical stocks. The biggest risk in the valuation of growth stocks is that he is a liar, he is not a growth stock, and he is not a technology stock.</p><p>Just like why after the crash in 2015, everyone found that many so-called technology stocks were so miserable later, falling even 70% to 80%, and sometimes even 90%. What is the reason? Because after this round of excitement, everyone found that it was falsified, and it was not technological.</p><p>At present, China's technology market is just in the ascendant, because at least at present, you can't falsify it. Although some leading companies in the system industry and these companies with technological content have expensive short-term static valuations, don't be focused. Now, we should focus on the economic environment, policy environment and the global capital flow behind the leaders in these system industries.</p><p>What is the economic environment behind it? In China's economic environment, deleveraging has made a great achievement, and the stage of subtraction has come to an end. What we need to consider now is to do addition and multiplication, and you can see that China's demand is still quite large, and our latecomer advantage is still very strong.</p><p>Although China's demographic dividend is exhausting, our engineer dividend is still very strong, and our capital investment in science and technology, whether in education, college students, or our annual investment in scientific research, is second only to the United States.</p><p>In the context of the possibility of overcapacity at every turn, what is really in line with China's high-quality development and has real demand is precisely those things with scientific and technological content, and those things with scientific and technological content have been summarized in the past two years. He summed up the growth point of the structure as Made in China 2025.</p><p>We still have to firmly remember that Made in China 2025 has one main line, four transformations, five major projects, eight strategies and ten major areas.</p><p>One main line is the deep integration of information technology and manufacturing technology, with digital, networked and intelligent manufacturing as the main line. This is a main line.</p><p>Made in China 2025 is not just the stupid and stupid manufacturing that everyone thinks. It is actually digital and intelligent manufacturing as the main line, with soft and hard,</p><p>Look at the ten major fields again, what new generation information technology and what high-end machine tools<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/300024\">Robot</a>, aerospace, marine engineering, high-tech ships, advanced orbits, energy-saving new energy, power equipment, new materials, biotechnology, etc., there are really hard and soft ones. From this perspective, we can see our real needs and the most efficient place.</p><p>Don't have buffalo hallucinations</p><p>This year's bull market is technology bull, structural bull</p><p>Back to the present, everyone is more worried about China's economy, and some people have started yy in the past two days, because the LPR has dropped today, and I have also answered a lot of phone calls, wondering if there will be a big release of water.</p><p>I have always reminded not to have this illusion of buffalo. Water will be released this year, but this year is not buffalo. This year's bull market is a technology bull market, a structural bull market, and a new core asset driven by advanced manufacturing.</p><p>Why do you say that? Because our current economic structure, tertiary industry and service industry are the main forces driving GDP, and from the perspective of employment, they are also tertiary industry service industry, so employment is the reason why we release water.</p><p>In the news of these two days, you can give him a string of these clues. What is very rare is that social security is reduced or exempted for 5 months. From February to June, as long as you participate in the social security plan, you can be exempted from paying for 5 months, involving an amount of 650 billion yuan.</p><p>Why is there such a big tax reduction? It is targeted. In order to prevent small and medium-sized enterprises from being under great pressure and not starting work, but they have to continue to help employees pay social security, which is under great pressure. Now he is in order to stabilize employment.</p><p>Unlike 2008, 2009 or 2016, as soon as the economic GDP came down, the National Development and Reform Commission and the Ministry of Finance fiercely engaged in infrastructure construction and released real estate.</p><p>Another thing is the monetary policy implementation report in the fourth quarter last night. The central bank also made it very clear that stimulating real estate will not be regarded as an important means to stabilize the economy in the short term. This is already very clear. Our strategic determination is stronger now than before, and the most important thing is economic restructuring. We not only want the economy to be stable, but at the same time we need long-term stability.</p><p>Therefore, even this year, one of the footholds of fiscal policy and monetary policy efforts should be scientific and technological infrastructure, not ordinary infrastructure. Ordinary infrastructure only guarantees the bottom and prevents the economy from landing hard, but the real more intensive infrastructure, It also includes the serious shortage of public medical equipment and facilities brought about by this epidemic.</p><p>Investment in 5G and semiconductors will also increase. This is the so-called scientific and technological infrastructure, which is not only conducive to short-term stable growth, but also conducive to employment, especially the employment of college students. At the same time, it can increase the efficiency of our future economic growth, especially the economic growth stamina is helpful. It's a level.</p><p>Second, from the perspective of funds, where can there be money to support economic transformation? Especially in the direction of high efficiency and high quality?</p><p>My answer is multi-level capital markets.</p><p>Don't expect to expand the balance sheet this time, because the three domestic tables are not very good now, and we can no longer condone leverage.</p><p>From a policy point of view, the relaxation time that can be compared this time is not 2016, 2008, or 2009, but the first four months of 2019. That is to say, after solving the short-term economic difficulties, we still have to go back to doing the long-term right thing.</p><p>I tend to say that from the perspective of capital flow, whether in the short term or long term, the most successful ones are still those with technological content, especially the manufacturing industry with technological content, especially the so-called Made in China 2025.</p><p>Advanced manufacturing and technology industries will expand in both directions</p><p>The multi-level capital market, especially the stock market, must be the multi-level capital market that can continue to bring growth funds.</p><p>Focusing on advanced manufacturing this year, the technology industry will expand in both directions. On the one hand, refinancing is more convenient, and some off-market industrial capital will enter the stock market through the primary market and the primary and semi-markets. This growth fund is very large.</p><p>That is to say, the capital market has changed from a starting point to an effective channel for allocating domestic idle funds and resources.</p><p>As long as there is a profit-making effect,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/603883\">Common people</a>The money also came in.</p><p>This is a very benign two-way expansion, and the direction is likely to be in accordance with the direction of national strategic thinking. You expect good things to come back cheap, which is a bit of a strategic mistake. Just like last year, people always want Maotai to be cheaper and then buy it cheaper, but it is just not cheap.</p><p>If you look at the valuation of technology stocks this year according to the valuation of 2018 and 2019, you will also make the same mistake as last year when you always used the valuation of the previous two years to look at Maotai.</p><p>This year, whether it is from overseas logic, or China's short-term domestic steady growth and the improvement of China's long-term economic benefits, the logic of these fundamentals, coupled with the logic of funds just mentioned, will make the market sustainable for several years. Not just this year, it may be similar to the United States from 2016 to the present.</p><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/GS\">Goldman Sachs</a>A report just came out two days ago, summarizing that in the past two years, the five major technology giants have basically taken the US index. Although China is not so concentrated now, we are taking the best industry leaders in the advanced manufacturing industry with the index.</p><p>Technology stock market will run through the year</p><p>But there will be twists and turns in the middle</p><p>Finally, I would like to add that although the market of technology stocks this year runs through the whole year, there will definitely be twists and turns in the middle. There are two reasons for the twists and turns:</p><p>The first aspect is the fluctuation of risk-free rate of return. From the Spring Festival to the present, the risk-free rate of return has returned from about 3% to the current 2.8% (measured by the 10-year Treasury Bond yield), which is still declining slowly. Judging from the one-year and three-year Treasury Bond yields, the short-term end is even more exaggerated.</p><p>This time is indeed a good day for technology stocks and growth stocks, but we should pay attention to the twists and turns behind.</p><p>For example, if work is fully resumed in March and April, the monetary policy should be matched with the fiscal policy, and the real economy's demand for the use of funds will increase. After the increase, the market interest rate may rise. However, the strength of the rise will be very weak, and it will not pose a big risk or adjustment to the market in March and April.</p><p>The downward trend of risk-free rate of return may enter a low fluctuation in March and April, instead of falling all the way down as it is now.</p><p>If technology stocks fluctuate in March and April, it will be a buying point. What to buy? According to the fundamentals, this fundamental is the core of our valuation of technology stocks. We must know that static valuation is not the core of our buying and selling technology stocks, but the fundamentals are. Good things are rare and expensive.</p><p>What is used to measure good stuff? January is called the wind and the grass. With such bad data in the first quarter, whose quarterly report is okay? What do you mean by making do? That is to say, the impact in February will be borne at home, but who can increase the volume and price from the fundamentals in March, and there is still the momentum for price increases? Niu companies can increase prices and increase their own output.</p><p>Therefore, in April, whose performance can meet expectations or exceed expectations, to put it bluntly, this is the leader that can run through the whole year, and even the leader in the next few years.</p><p>Because the crisis mode in the first quarter of this year was a good military parade, the strength of competitiveness at this time was clear at a glance. These leading companies with strong competitiveness will still last for several years and will be accompanied by the high-quality development of China's economy for a long time.</p><p>To sum up, releasing water is not forever, because it is restricted by external situations, asset bubbles, and inflation. The release of water, Buffalo is only short-lived, but with the optimization and adjustment of the economic structure, relatively more funds will be invested in the relatively optimized but relatively small structure. Structure is king, this is the core.</p><p>Five Directions for a Bull Market in Tech Stocks</p><p>Finally, the bull market of technology stocks may have a continuity of two or three years in the future, rather than a buffalo, it is an efficiency bull and a structural bull brought about by the improvement of economic structure.</p><p>My own opinion is the following five directions. Of course, the bull stocks inside are selected by high-quality fund companies and fund managers such as Wells Fargo Fund, but selecting the five directions from top to bottom is basically appropriate to Made in China 2025.</p><p>The first is information technology represented by 5G semiconductors. The so-called new generation information technology represented by 5G cloud, semiconductor, Internet, and Internet of Things is TMT.</p><p>The second is high-end manufacturing, which is represented by new energy vehicles.</p><p>The third is energy-saving new energy and new materials. Including clean energy, whether<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/000591\">Solar energy</a>, nuclear energy, or some energy-saving equipment, including new materials related to this, which can be combined with the application of new energy vehicles.</p><p>In addition, I just mentioned that the water release will not be sustained, because apart from internal inflation this year, we must be careful that our oil is in the hands of others. The old American oil is already exported, and the rise in oil prices is good for the United States, but not good for China and Europe.</p><p>China has always prepared for a rainy day. The so-called determination and strategic vision of a big country is energy conservation and new energy, which also has technical content. For example, recently, China also has comparative advantages in hydrogen energy, solar energy, and clean energy. This is the third.</p><p>The fourth one tends to some precision manufacturing, especially military industry. Precision manufacturing and TMT are still related. Whether it is some high-end machine tools, artificial intelligence equipment, drones, large aircraft, etc., these are all precision manufacturing.</p><p>The fifth direction is biomedicine and biotechnology.</p><p>These five directions, the first four directions, may be slightly better in the next stage, and biotechnology may be better in the second half of the year than in the second quarter, because due to the epidemic in the first quarter, biotechnology is already a little less confident. The next step It is necessary to make great efforts to make up for shortcomings and invest around public medical care. Therefore, biotechnology and biomedical opportunities in the second half of the year may be better than in the second quarter.</p><p>Generally speaking, for high-quality companies in these five directions, adjustment is the buying point, so don't be afraid of market fluctuations. To sum up, good things are not afraid of falling, not afraid of falling, and not afraid of falling. This is a characteristic of core assets that I have been talking about.</p><p>Whether it is the subtraction of the core assets of traditional industries in the past three years or the multiplication and addition in the next few years, it is a good thing that the core assets of advanced manufacturing and technology-based industries remain unchanged. Especially around such good things with clear fundamentals, we must insist on Qingshan and dare to allocate them when the market fluctuates.</p><p>Q&A session?</p><p>Q: How do you view January social financing?<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/HX\">And credit</a>Big more than expected? Is it good for financial real estate or technology stocks?</p><p>Zhang Yidong: This is the short-term and long-term. From the perspective of social financing, it is relatively more positive for value stocks to prevent the economy from having a hard landing.</p><p>Social financing in January this year, from the perspective of growth, local special bonds are a big part. These are all efforts to stabilize growth, because they are looking for core assets in technology stocks. I don't think the technology market in the next two or three years will be simple. It is equivalent to the buffalo, mad cow, and random speculation in 13 ~ 15 years, but it tends to be similar to a batch of the best ones in the United States after the 1980s, with only a few.</p><p>I estimate that many people buy technology stocks this year than value stocks. Buying technology stocks means buying \"technology stocks\" indiscriminately. Especially those who have chased high prices and bought all technology stocks in the past two days may be slapped on both sides this year and become dizzy.</p><p>If you do not have research ability yourself, the research of technology stocks is not based on static valuation, but from the perspective of an industry. If you are not an industry expert, it is difficult to grasp this overall valuation.</p><p>This kind of technology stock with a high static valuation, and even holding PE is not cheap, but the discounted forward cash flow of leading companies is really a porcelain job, and it requires diamonds.</p><p>Social financing is a backing role. It prevents China's economy from having a hard landing. Once it is not a hard landing, whether it is a leading company in a cyclical industry such as consumption or even real estate, their profits will not exceed expectations. cliff, and now the valuation is relatively cheap, or at least reasonably underestimated. There are even some valuation ratios of leading companies in traditional industries. These can be completely based on static valuation and TTM valuation, because their profits are stable and predictable. As long as the Chinese economy is not a systematic stall, they Act as a stabilizer, you can compare it with bonds to see the cost performance.</p><p>From the current point of view, whether it is a leading company that can't die in the real estate industry, or a return rate of more than 5% in the financial industry or traditional industries, it is more cost-effective for ordinary investors to make a little money. It is safer for ordinary investors to buy value stocks this year, because the risk-free rate of return is low. For those leading companies in traditional industries, it is better than bonds and better than you buy wealth management products.</p><p>Social financing has little impact on technology stocks. Because the rise of technology stocks is more caused by two factors, one is that the interest rate of funds remains unchanged and the rate of return continues to decline; The second piece is related to some regulatory policies, that is, add water if there is more noodles, and add noodles if there is more water. As long as there is a profit-making effect in this market, some incremental money will continue to come in, and the structural market will continue.</p><p>In the last summary, my view on this year's market is that the index is a balanced market, not a bull market or a bear market. Don't expect a big bull market when it rises. The Shanghai Composite Index in the so-called bull market will rise by at least 20% a year, and the Shanghai Composite Index can't see it, because the economy is only a bottom stabilization, not a hard landing.</p><p><div></div><div></div><div></div></body></html></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> source：<a href=\"http://cj.sina.cn/article/normal_detail?url=https://k.sina.cn/article_6176407506_170247fd201900m6va.html\">全景财经</a></p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/753c9aba3202037bc97463c545d5d015","relate_stocks":{"600519":"贵州茅台","TTTN":"老虎中美互联网巨头ETF","03086":"华夏纳指","QNETCN":"纳斯达克中美互联网老虎指数"},"source_url":"http://cj.sina.cn/article/normal_detail?url=https://k.sina.cn/article_6176407506_170247fd201900m6va.html","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2014866596","content_text":"来源：聪明投资者（ID：Capital-nature）“我一直提醒不要有水牛的这种幻觉，今年会放水，但是今年不是水牛，今年的牛市是科技牛，是结构性牛市，是以先进制造业为驱动的新的核心资产。”“财政政策，货币政策着力的一个落脚点也应该是科技基建，不是普通的那种基建。”“今年科技股的行情虽然是贯穿全年，但在中间一定会有波折。”“三四月份如果科技股有波动，那会是个买点。”以上，是兴业证券全球首席策略分析师张忆东，今天在和富国基金量化投资部首席策略分析师、基金经理张圣贤的一场对话中，给出的最新精彩观点。张圣贤是富国基金量化投资部首席策略分析师、基金经理。管理包括富国中证军工、富国国企改革、富国智能汽车等在内的多只主题行业指数基金。在本次对话和问答中，张忆东分享了他对于2020年科技股的看法，对货币财政政策也给出了他的分析，对于看好哪些科技类行业，也给出了明确的答案。聪明投资者整理了精彩内容，分享给大家。中美科技股都挺贵但中国的科技股更有后劲刚才讲的是全球，落实到中国，中国现在面临着一个好的机会，就是全球资产荒和中国核心资产牛市的新主角，就是我们2020年的年度策略，名字就旗帜鲜明。现在很明显，美国的这种好的科技股不便宜，也很贵的。很多人讲我们的科技股也挺贵的，但是都偏贵的情况下看后劲，看ROE，看你未来的增长空间。成长股，特别是科技型的成长股，静态估值是不要看的，你要看静态估值永远下不了手，都是贵的。费雪是个成长股的大师，从来不会按照周期股的这种估值方式来看成长股，成长股估值最大的风险，在于他是一个骗子，他不是成长股，他不是科技股。就像为什么2015年崩盘之后，大家发现很多所谓的科技股后来好惨，跌了甚至百分之七八十，甚至有时候还跌了90%的，原因是什么？因为这一轮亢奋之后，大家发现说它被证伪了，他没有科技性的。中国目前科技行情刚刚是方兴未艾，因为至少目前你无法证伪，系统行业的一些龙头、这些有科技含量的公司，虽然他短期静态估值贵，千万不要被迷惑，我们现在要将重点是聚焦于这些系统行业的龙头背后的经济环境、政策环境以及全球的这种资金的流动。那什么叫做背后的经济环境？中国的经济环境，去杠杆已经取得了很大的一个成就，做减法的阶段已经告一段落，现在要考虑的是做加法乘法的事儿，而这些你可以看到中国的需求还是蛮大的，而且我们后发优势还是很强的。虽然中国人口红利在衰竭，但是我们工程师红利还是很强的，而且我们的资本对于科技的投入，无论是从教育、大学生这些，还是我们每年投入到科研方面的资金是仅次于美国的。在动辄就有可能产能过剩的背景下，真正的符合中国高质量发展的，有实实在在需求的恰恰是那些有科技含量的东西，而那些有科技含量的东西，前两年已经总结了，结构的增长点他总结一个词叫做中国制造2025。我们还是要牢牢记住，中国制造2025一条主线、四个转变、五大工程、八项战略，十大领域。一条主线就是以信息技术和制造业技术深度融合，以数字化、网络化、智能化的制造为主线，这是一条主线。中国的制造2025不只是大家想的傻大笨粗的制造，他其实是数字化、智能化制造为主线，有软有硬的、你再看十大领域，什么新一代信息技术、什么高端机床机器人、航空航天、海洋工程、高技术船舶、先进的轨道、节能新能源、电力设备、新材料、生物科技等等，真的有硬的有软的。从这个角度也就看到了我们实实在在的需求，最有效率的地方。不要有水牛的幻觉今年的牛市是科技牛、结构牛回到现在，大家都比较担心中国的经济，而且这两天有人开始yy，因为今天LPR降了，我也接了不少电话，觉得说会不会大放水的了。我一直提醒不要有水牛的这种幻觉，今年会放水，但是今年不是水牛，今年的牛市是科技牛，是结构性牛市，是以先进制造业为驱动的新的核心资产。为什么这么讲？因为我们现在的经济结构以及第三产业和服务业是推动GDP主要的力量了，而且从就业的角度来说也是第三产业服务业，所以就业才是我们放水的原因。这两天的新闻，你可以把这些线索给他串一串。很罕见的是减免社保5个月，从2月份到6月份，只要你参与社保计划的企业就可以5个月免交，涉及的金额6500亿。为什么有这么大的一个减税的力度，就是有针对性的，为了防止的那种中小企业的压力大，没有开工，但是还要继续的去帮助员工缴社保，压力就很大，现在他就为了稳就业。不像2008年、2009年或者2016年，只要经济GDP一下来，发改委，财政部就猛搞基建，大放房地产。再有一个事，就是昨天晚上四季度的货币政策执行报告，央行也很明确，不把刺激房地产作为短期稳定经济的重要手段，这就已经很明确了，我们现在战略定力比以前要强了，最关键还是经济结构调整，我们既要经济能稳住，但同时又要有长治久安。所以就算是今年，财政政策，货币政策着力的一个落脚点也应该是科技基建，不是普通的那种基建，普通的基建只是保底托底，不让经济硬着陆，而真正的更大力度的基建，也包括这次疫情带来的公共医疗的设备设施严重不足。还有包括5G、半导体这些的投入都会加大的，这就是所谓科技基建，既利于短期稳增长，又利于就业，特别是大学生就业，同时又能够对我们未来增经济增长的效率，特别是经济增长后劲是有帮助的。这是一个层面。第二，从资金的层面，哪些地方能够有钱可以去支持经济的转型？特别是向高效率、高质量的方向发展？我的答案是多层次资本市场。这一次不要指望说扩张资产负债表，因为现在国内的三张表都不太好，不能够再纵容加杠杆。从政策的角度来说，这一次能够类比的放松时间不是2016年、2008年、2009年，而是2019年的前4个月。也就是说解决经济短期的困难之后，还是要回到做长期正确的事。我倾向于说从资金的流向来看，无论是短期还是长期，最胜利的依然是有科技含量的，特别是有科技含量的制造业，特别是所谓的中国制造2025那一类的东西。先进制造业、科技行业会是双向扩容而能够持续带来增长资金的一定是多层次资本市场，特别是股市。今年围绕着先进制造业，科技行业会是双向扩容。一方面再融资更加便利化，会有一些场外的产业资本透过一级市场和一级半市场进入到股市来，这个增长资金非常大的。也就相当于说，资本市场从一个抓手，变成一个有效的配置国内闲散资金、配置资源的一个通道。只要有赚钱效应，老百姓的钱也就进来了。这就是一个很良性的双向扩容，而且方向大概率是按照国家战略思考的方向。你指望好东西回到很便宜，那有点犯战略错误，就好比去年，大家老是想茅台便宜一点再买便宜点再买，它就是不便宜。如果大家再按照2018、2019年的估值来看今年科技股的估值，也会犯类似于去年老是用前两年的估值看茅台一样的错误。今年无论是从海外的逻辑，还是说中国国内短期稳增长以及长期中国经济效益的提升，这些基本面的逻辑，再叠加刚才提到的资金面的逻辑，都会使得行情的持续性数年有望。不只是今年一年，有可能类似于美国从2016年到现在。高盛前两天刚出了一个报告，总结了这两年基本上就是5大科技巨头带着美国指数走的。中国虽然现在不是那么集中，但我们恰恰是以先进制造业里面最优秀的行业龙头带着指数走。科技股行情将贯穿全年但中间一定会有波折最后再补充一下，今年科技股的行情虽然是贯穿全年，但在中间一定会有波折。波折的原因有两个方面：第1个方面是无风险收益率的波动。从春节到现在，无风险收益率一路从3%左右回到了现在的2.8%（以10年期国债收益率来衡量），这还是降的慢。以一年期、三年期的国债收益率来看，短端更加夸张。这个时候的确是科技股、成长股好日子，但是我们要关注后面的波折。打个比方，三四月份如果全面复工，货币政策要跟财政政策相配套，实体经济对资金的使用需求就增强增多，增多了以后对于市场利率就有可能抬升。但是抬升的力度会很弱，三四月份不会构成市场的大风险，大调整。无风险收益率趋势性的下行，到三四月份可能会进入到低位波动，而不是像现在一路向下打。三四月份如果科技股有波动，那会是个买点，买什么？要根据基本面，这个基本面才是我们买科技股估值（的核心），一定要知道静态估值不是我们买卖科技股的核心，基本面才是。好东西，物为稀为贵。用什么来衡量好东西？1月份叫疾风知劲草，在一季度数据这样糟糕的情况下，谁的一季报还凑合？什么叫凑合？也就是2月份受的影响在家都承受，但是谁能够在3月份从基本面上面量价提升，还有涨价的动能嘛，牛的公司就能涨价，并且把自己的产量提高。所以4月份，谁的业绩能够符合预期或者超预期的，说白了这就是能够贯穿全年的龙头，甚至是未来数年的龙头。因为今年一季度危机模式下是一个很好的阅兵式，这个时候竞争力的强弱就一目了然了。竞争力强的这些龙头公司，它仍然会贯穿数年，会较长时间伴随着中国经济高质量发展。总结一下，放水不是永远，因为它受到外部形势、资产泡沫、通胀的制约。放水，水牛只是短暂的，但是经济结构的优化、调整，相对多的资金反而会投入到相对优化的但是又相对少的结构中去。结构为王，这才是核心。科技股牛市的五个方向最后说一下，科技股牛市未来可能有个两三年的延续性，而不是水牛，是经济结构改善所带来的效率牛、结构牛。我自己的看法是这样5个方向，当然，里边的牛股是由富国基金这些优质的基金公司、基金经理来选的，但是自上而下选5个方向基本上就是跟中国制造2025贴切的。第1个，5G半导体为代表的信息技术。所谓的5G云、半导体、互联网、物联网为代表的新一代信息技术，就是TMT。第2个就是高端制造，高端制造又是以新能源车为代表。第3个是节能新能源，新材料。包括清洁能源，无论是太阳能，核能，还是一些节能的设备，包括与此相关的新材料，它和新能源车的应用是可以结合的。另外，我刚才提到了放水不持续，因为今年除了内部有通胀之外，还要小心我们的油掌握在别人手中。而老美石油已经是出口了，油价的上涨有利于美国，不利于中国和欧洲。中国向来是未雨绸缪，所谓的大国定力和战略眼光就是节能新能源，这个也是有技术含量的。比如说最近的氢能、太阳能、清洁能源这些，中国也有相对优势，这是第3个。第4个倾向于一些精密制造，特别是军工。精密制造和TMT还是相联系的，无论是一些高端的机床，还是人工智能设备，无人机、大飞机等等，这些都是精密制造。第5个方向，生物医药，生物科技。这5个方向，前4个方向，下个阶段可能会略好，而生物科技下半年可能会比二季度要好一些，因为一季度由于疫情的原因，生物科技已经有点不太自信了，下一步就要围绕着公共医疗进行大力度的补短板、投入。所以下半年生物科技、生物医疗机会可能会比二季度要好一点。总体来说这5个方向里面的优质公司，调整就是买入点，市场的波动不要怕。总结起来就是好东西就不怕跌，跌不怕，怕不跌，这我一直讲的核心资产的一个特征。无论是过去三年来对传统行业的核心资产做减法，还是说未来几年的做乘法和加法，这种先进制造业、科技型行业的核心资产依然不变的是好东西。特别是围绕着基本面明确的这种好东西，要咬定青山，在市场波动的时候要敢于去配置。问答环节？问：如何看待一月社融和信贷大超预期？是利好金融地产还是利好科技股？张忆东：这就是短期和长期了吧，从社融的角度来说，让经济不至于有一个失足硬着陆的风险，相对来说，对于价值股是更正面的。今年1月份的社融，从增长的角度，地方专项债的是个大头，这些都是属于稳增长的力度，因为是找科技股里边的核心资产，我并不认为未来两三年的科技行情简单等同于13~15年的什么水牛、疯牛、乱炒的那一个，而是倾向于是一个类似于美国80年代以后一批最优秀的这种，只有少数的。我估计今年很多人买科技股还不如买价值股的。买科技股就是自己乱买“科技股”，特别是这两天追高买所有科技股的人，有可能在今年不断的两边挨巴掌，被抽的晕头转向。如果你自己没有研究能力，科技股的研究不是按照静态估值，而是从一个产业的角度来思考，你如果不是一个产业专家，很难把握住这种整体估值。静态估值在高位，甚至抱着PE也不便宜的这种科技股，但是龙头公司的远期现金流折现真的是个瓷器活，要有金刚钻的。社融它是个托底的作用，它使得中国经济不至于硬着陆，而一旦不是硬着陆，无论是消费，甚至是地产那种周期行业的龙头公司，他们的盈利就不会产生了超预期的断崖，而现在估值又相对便宜，或者至少是合理偏低估的。甚至有一些传统行业的龙头公司的估值比，他们这些是完全可以看静态估值、TTM估值的，因为他们盈利的稳定性、可预测性强，只要中国经济不是一个系统性的失速，他们起到一个稳定器的作用，就可以跟债券比较看性价比。从现在的角度来说，无论是地产里面死不了的龙头公司，金融行业、传统行业里面的收益率超过5%的，对于普通投资者赚点小钱性价比更好。普通投资者今年买价值股更稳妥，因为无风险收益率在低位，那些传统行业的龙头公司，它比债券强，比你买理财产品要强。社融这一块跟科技股影响不大。因为科技股的上涨更多由两块因素导致的，一块就是资金利率不变，收益率的不断的下行；第2块是和一些监管政策，也就是面多了加水，水多了加面，只要这个行情里面不断有赚钱效应，就会源源不断的有一些增量的钱进来，结构性行情会持续。最后上一个总结，我对今年的行情看法，指数是平衡市，不是牛市也不是熊市，不要指望着一涨就是大牛市，所谓的牛市的上证综指一年至少涨幅超过20%，上证综指看不到，因为经济的只是一个底部企稳，不是硬着陆。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"600519":0.6,"QNETCN":0.6,"03086":0.6,"TTTN":0.6}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1892,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":980484639,"gmtCreate":1582595418421,"gmtModify":1705428876786,"author":{"id":"3457235060590479","authorId":"3457235060590479","name":"自在飞花轻似梦","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e2f19a6498814b6532a45b67806a8b2a","crmLevel":5,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3457235060590479","idStr":"3457235060590479"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"?","listText":"?","text":"?","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/980484639","repostId":"1194164958","repostType":2,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2254,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":980917955,"gmtCreate":1582160433677,"gmtModify":1705427969000,"author":{"id":"3457235060590479","authorId":"3457235060590479","name":"自在飞花轻似梦","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e2f19a6498814b6532a45b67806a8b2a","crmLevel":5,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3457235060590479","idStr":"3457235060590479"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"?","listText":"?","text":"?","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/980917955","repostId":"1163103822","repostType":2,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1486,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0}],"lives":[]}
