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点点的小爸爸

点点的小爸爸

一名外出务工者

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点点的小爸爸

2022-09-12

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"Wei Xiaoli", "rolled" together again

点点的小爸爸

2024-10-08

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点点的小爸爸

2023-06-21

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点点的小爸爸

2023-06-17

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点点的小爸爸

2022-08-19

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Behind the rebound in U.S. stocks: Quantitative funds close short positions, will they rise for another 100 days?

点点的小爸爸

2022-08-18

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@新行情:3個月連關2店，打破24年不閉店神話，宜家大潰敗

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Mark","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6a0afb82c55be81a47100b877af9dd82","width":"1080","height":"2400"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/188217609916520","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1985,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0}],"hots":[{"id":663325471,"gmtCreate":1662966151698,"gmtModify":1676537173044,"author":{"id":"3484871130175544","authorId":"3484871130175544","name":"点点的小爸爸","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d3accabc9f10fcda7c9d52e38e77507c","crmLevel":5,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3484871130175544","idStr":"3484871130175544"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"🙄","listText":"🙄","text":"🙄","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/663325471","repostId":"2266319619","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"2266319619","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1662964113,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/2266319619?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2022-09-12 14:28","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"\"Wei Xiaoli\", \"rolled\" together again","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2266319619","media":"燃次元","summary":"随着蔚来公布2022年第二季度的财务数据，国内“造车新势力”第一梯队的三家成员，“蔚小理”已全部发布了今年上半年的成绩单。这三份成绩单的数据似乎都有些“差强人意”。第二季度，蔚来、小鹏、理想分别实现总","content":"<p><html><head></head><body>With<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NIO\">Nio</a>Announcing the financial data for the second quarter of 2022, the three members of the first echelon of domestic \"new car-making forces\", \"Wei Xiaoli\", have all released their report cards for the first half of this year.</p><p>The data of these three transcripts all seem to be somewhat \"unsatisfactory\".</p><p>In the second quarter, Nio, XPeng, and Ideal achieved total revenue of 10.292 billion yuan (RMB, the same if not marked below), 7.436 billion yuan, and 8.73 billion yuan, respectively, a year-on-year increase of 21.8%, 97.7%, and 73.3%, respectively. While total revenue achieved year-on-year growth, the net losses of the three companies were 2.745 billion yuan, 2.7 billion yuan and 618 million yuan respectively, an increase of 316.4%, 126.1% and 163% respectively compared with last year.</p><p>\"Wei Xiaoli\", whose net loss has expanded far more than its revenue growth, seems to have confirmed the prophecy that new energy vehicles \"sell more and lose more\". To make matters worse, \"Wei Xiaoli\" did not hand over satisfactory sales data in the just-concluded August, but was overtaken by \"new car-making forces\" such as Leapmotor, Nezha Automobile and AITO Wenjie. Members of the second echelon overtook.</p><p>In this regard, Liu Ying, research director of Analysys Analysis's automobile travel industry, commented that on the one hand, the domestic epidemic has repeatedly limited the delivery speed of \"new car-making forces\", and at the same time, the shortage of chips and the price increase of new energy batteries have also caused a certain impact on production. impact. However, with the recovery of production capacity in the second half of the year, it is believed that the delivery speed will gradually increase.</p><p>As Liu Ying said, \"Wei Xiaoli\" gave optimistic forecasts about the sales and delivery of his own vehicles in the second half of the year at the second quarter financial report meeting.</p><p>It has responded positively to Ideal, which is preparing to stop production of \"Ideal ONE\", and is confident in the future performance of the new car L9. Ideal said, \"By September, we will deliver more than 10,000 L9s.\"</p><p>Nio also said that the second half of 2022 will be a critical period for Nio to expand production and deliver a variety of new products. ES7 will begin batch delivery in August, and ET5 will begin mass production and delivery at the end of September. The company is very confident in market demand, and the core of delivery still depends on the supply chain and production capacity.</p><p>While domestic delivery data is under pressure, \"Wei Xiaoli\" 's exploration in the European market has also attracted much attention.</p><p>As the \"pioneer\" of going overseas in \"Wei Xiaoli\", Nio stated at the second quarter financial report meeting that he would accelerate his overseas layout in Europe. In addition, XPeng has also exported cars to some European countries and regions. However, judging from the data, \"Wei Xiaoli\" has not yet \"conquered\" overseas markets.</p><p>Domestic delivery is difficult to climb, and foreign markets are even more difficult to break through. \"Wei Xiaoli\" has to \"roll\" to the updated story. It is not difficult to see from the layout of the three companies that their new stories seem to have a high degree of overlap in terms of high-end and the combination of software and hardware.</p><p>However, can \"Wei Xiaoli\", who has once again \"rolled\" to one place, return to the \"peak\" of the first echelon of \"new car-making forces\"?</p><p>Unsatisfactory domestic achievements</p><p>Judging from the released second quarter data, \"Wei Xiaoli\" seems to have a hard time.</p><p>First of all, the vehicle delivery data is unsatisfactory.</p><p>From the data point of view, the delivery data of Nio and XPeng have both increased. In August, Nio and XPeng delivered 10,677 vehicles and 9,578 vehicles respectively, a year-on-year increase of 81.6% and 33% respectively compared with the same period last year. However, Ideal delivered only 4,571 vehicles in August, a year-on-year decrease of 51.5% compared with 9,433 vehicles in the same period last year.</p><p>Looking at month-on-month data, only Nio had a slight increase of 6.2% compared with 10,052 vehicle deliveries in July. XPeng and Ideal had 17% and 56% sequential declines in deliveries, respectively.</p><p>And if compared with the August delivery volume of other \"new car-making forces\" car companies, the weakness of \"Wei Xiaoli\" is even more obvious. According to the statistics of Cheyu Wujiang, \"Wei Xiaoli\" ranked fifth, seventh and ninth respectively in the ranking of the delivery volume of the top ten new car manufacturers in the country in August.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/cb1b3f4c8ab80c529a174041ab989c86\" tg-width=\"720\" tg-height=\"326\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/>Data source/vehicle domain boundless statistics burning dimensional mapping</p><p>It is worth noting that the top three deliveries of new power car companies in August were those transformed from traditional car companies<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/002594\">BYD</a>And Guangzhou Automobile, and Nezha Automobile from the second echelon of \"new car-making forces\". After that, in cooperation with Huawei<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/601127\">Cyrus</a>The launched Wenjie series also achieved a breakthrough in sales, with 10,045 deliveries, surpassing XPeng and Ideal, and almost equal to Nio.</p><p>Many people in the industry attribute the current situation of \"Wei Xiaoli\" 's August delivery data to the result of \"the disappearance of the 'Wei Xiaoli' effect\". Zhang Junyi, managing partner of Oliver Wyman Consulting and former managing partner of Nio Capital, said that it is too early to judge the disappearance of the \"Wei Xiaoli\" effect just because of this. The poor performance of \"Wei Xiaoli\" in August was the result of a combination of cyclical and sporadic factors.</p><p>Zhang Junyi further analyzed that in terms of cyclical factors, new forces themselves have a plateau period of development and a challenge period of product switching. In addition, summer is not the peak sales season for car companies. Therefore, some car companies will also choose to rest their factories or launch iterative products at this time.</p><p>In terms of occasional factors, factors such as the recurrence of the epidemic and insufficient power supply in some areas will affect the delivery and production speed of car companies. \"Especially for enterprises with few outlets and relatively concentrated production scale such as'new car-making forces', the impact will be even greater.\" Zhang Junyi said bluntly.</p><p>On the one hand, the sales volume is unsatisfactory, and on the other hand, the profitability of \"Wei Xiaoli\" has not yet made a breakthrough.</p><p>According to the second quarter financial report of \"Wei Xiaoli\", the net losses of the three car companies in this quarter were 2.745 billion yuan, 2.7 billion yuan and 618 million yuan respectively, which were 316%, 126.1% and 163% respectively compared with the same period last year.%.</p><p>Although they are also in a state of expanding losses, the reasons why the three \"Wei Xiaoli\" companies \"sell more and lose more\" are different.</p><p>Among them, the ideal revenue growth rate cannot keep up with the growth rate of operating expenses. The financial report shows that Ideal achieved a total revenue of 8.73 billion yuan in the second quarter, a year-on-year increase of 73.3% compared with the same period last year, and a quarter-on-quarter decrease of 8.7% compared with the first quarter. But in comparison, in the second quarter, the ideal operating expenses were 2.86 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of more than 90% compared with the same period last year, and a quarter-on-quarter increase of 10.9% compared with the first quarter.</p><p>It is worth noting that Ideal's sales expenses in the second quarter were 1.33 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 58.6%. Ideal attributed the increase in sales expenses to \"the increase in personnel expansion expenses and rent expenses involved in expanding the sales network.\"</p><p>Judging from Ideal's store data, Ideal has indeed expanded significantly-in the second quarter of last year, Ideal had 114 physical stores in 69 cities across the country, and by the second quarter of this year, Ideal had 118 cities across the country. There are 265 physical stores, and the number of physical stores has increased by 132% year-on-year.</p><p>However, such channel expansion does not seem to bring gratifying sales growth to Ideal, especially in the special period when \"Ideal ONE\" announced the suspension of production and L9 failed to deliver in large quantities.</p><p>But as far as Ideal itself is concerned, it is full of confidence in the future performance of the new product L9 for iteration. At the second quarter financial report meeting, Ideal stated that many intended customers of Ideal ONE turned to L9 customers after seeing L9, even though there is a big gap in the prices of the two cars. Based on this, Ideal is also very confident in the future customers of L9 who will undertake the Ideal ONE iteration.</p><p>In this regard, Zhang Junyi said that this is a normal product iteration. \"The current iteration speed of new energy vehicles may be between 4-5 years, which is faster than the iteration speed of traditional fuel vehicles.\"</p><p>In Zhang Junyi's view, the main reasons for this phenomenon can be seen from four aspects. First, the iteration of product technology itself is getting faster and faster, and to introduce and reflect these technologies, it is necessary to adjust the vehicle model; Second, the current habit of many consumers is to change cars in 4-5 years, so car companies must keep up with this rhythm in order to be able to use new products to undertake the replacement of consumers; Third, the early models of new car manufacturers are also a process of summary and improvement, which will be faster than ordinary iterations; Fourth, new R&D investments are more concentrated in<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/5RE.SI\">smart</a>Electric vehicles will cause the iteration of new energy vehicles to be faster than that of fuel vehicles in the same period.</p><p>Chai Daixuan, director of CIC Consulting, expressed different views on the current iteration speed of new energy vehicles. Chai Daixuan said, \"At present, the elimination cycle of electric vehicles will not be shortened to less than five years.\"</p><p>Investigating the reason, Chai Daixuan further analyzed, first of all, for pure electric vehicles, the service life of power batteries is 5-8 years. Secondly, our country stipulates that the key components of new energy vehicles (batteries, electronic controls, motors) provide a warranty of no less than 8 years or 120,000 kilometers. During this cycle, maintenance is completely free, which will also reduce the number of consumers replacing trams. frequency.</p><p>Unlike Ideal, which is in the iteration period of products, Nio and XPeng \"fell down\" in the link of controlling production costs.</p><p>In the second quarter, Nio's gross profit margin was 13%, down 30.1% from 18.6% in the same period last year, and down 11% from the previous quarter's 14.6% gross profit margin. XPeng is also facing a year-on-year and quarter-on-quarter decline in gross profit margin. XPeng's gross profit margin in the second quarter was 9.1%, compared with 11% in the same period last year, while the gross profit margin in the previous quarter was 10.4%, a year-on-year decrease of 17.3%, a quarter-on-quarter decrease of 12.6%.</p><p>For the failure of production cost control, XPeng and Nio gave similar reasons, that is, rising battery costs. XPeng and Nio also unanimously stated that the impact of rising battery costs will be eliminated by the launch of some high-priced cars.</p><p>Xiaoyu, a senior practitioner in the automotive industry, said that due to the initial choice of extended range, Ideal has an advantage over XPeng and Nio in terms of production costs, which is why Ideal's gross profit margin has not declined significantly with the increase in battery costs. \"XPeng and Nio, which insist on pure electricity, must eliminate the impact of cost increases by increasing the selling price of cars, thereby stabilizing gross profit margins. This is one of the reasons why XPeng and Nio are accelerating their high-end layout.\"</p><p>Zhang Junyi added, \"The control of the cost of raw materials for complete vehicles is not a problem that can be solved by a few new forces, but only when the delivery and production volume of the entire new force industry has been greatly improved can the cost of the overall industry be systematically controlled.\"</p><p>Overseas business faces many obstacles</p><p>\"Wei Xiaoli\", who is struggling to climb the hill in China, is also looking at the international market.</p><p>In mid-June this year, after Nio's new product launch conference, Li Bin told the outside world that he would resolutely go to Europe and the United States. \"China is the most'voluminous' place in the world. If you can survive in China, there is no reason to survive in Europe and the United States.\"</p><p>At the second quarter financial report meeting, Nio also stated that ET7 will start deliveries with European countries and regions such as Sweden, Germany, and Norway this year.</p><p>In fact, as early as 2015, Nio had already set up a R&D center in Silicon Valley. At this financial report meeting, Nio said that the company had not been to the United States for some time due to the epidemic, so last month the company visited the R&D center in Silicon Valley to check the progress of the work. Nio optimistically mentioned that \"the time for Nio to enter the US market is getting closer and closer.\"</p><p>In Europe, in May 2021, Nio released its Norwegian strategy and officially announced its entry into the Norwegian market. Coincidentally, in the same month, Ideal also stated that it is currently accelerating the improvement of its layout in overseas markets, including studying product usage habits and channel exploration and laying in overseas markets, and has also established a team focusing on this project. Earlier in September 2020, the first batch<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/XPEV\">XPeng vehicles</a>It has also been sent to Norway.</p><p>\"The reason why both Nio and XPeng regard Norway as a'jumping platform 'to attack Europe is inseparable from Norway's friendly policy of new energy vehicles.\" Xiaoyu said, first of all, Norway, as a non-EU country, has various requirements for automobile companies. Relatively not so high. In addition, the Norwegian government strongly supports the development of new energy vehicles in many aspects, which also reduces the overall difficulty of automobile exports.</p><p>At the same time, Zhang Junyi said that it is also the general trend for \"Wei Xiaoli\" to go further overseas. \"'Wei Xiaoli' going overseas is an inevitable trend in an environment where China's manufacturing quality is getting better and better. In the past, the regions where Chinese companies exported were more concentrated in Asian, African and Latin American countries and regions. Now, with the improvement of China's productivity and product strength, exports to Europe and the United States markets is the only way to go.\"</p><p>Zhang Junyi added that, in fact, the product strength of domestic new energy vehicles is competitive in the European market. \"Judging from the development of platforms, products and technologies, in recent years, domestic policies have strongly supported and promoted new energy vehicle companies. The speed is very fast, and it can be said that some aspects have exceeded the capabilities of Europe, which is another reason why new forces can enter Europe.\"</p><p>\"On the other hand, the development of overseas business may also play a role in promoting the development of the domestic market.\" Zhang Junyi continued, taking Nio as an example, Nio vehicles directly target high-end automobile brands such as Audi, Mercedes-Benz, and BMW. To build such a brand, continuous internationalization is necessary. \"Even if the current main market of new forces is domestic, when the overseas business gradually matures, domestic consumers will also perceive the international influence of the brand, thus promoting the growth of sales in the domestic market. Therefore, even if you don't make money, the overseas business must'make money '.\"</p><p>However, the new forces going overseas also seem to perform average in terms of sales data.</p><p>According to Titanium Media, in the Norwegian market, among the best-selling<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/600617\">National New Energy</a>The model is Polestar 2, and its total sales from January to May were 1,984 units. In contrast, according to eu-evs data, XPeng and Nio will deliver only 474 vehicles and 200 vehicles in the European market in 2021, respectively.</p><p>\"This magnitude difference has a lot to do with the fact that 'Wei Xiaoli' has not yet established brand influence as a brand new domestic brand.\" Xiaoyu said that Polestar was originally a European and Swedish brand, which was later acquired by Volvo, and then Geely participated in the investment. Therefore, Polestar is not considered a \"native\" Chinese brand. \"Wei Xiaoli\" is different. Their influence in overseas markets needs to be laid from scratch little by little, which takes time.</p><p>Regarding the future competitive landscape of \"Wei Xiaoli\" in overseas markets, Zhang Junyi said, \"In fact, there are some ways that\" Wei Xiaoli \"can take in the domestic market. We can try whether it can adapt to the European and American markets.\"</p><p>For example, Zhang Junyi said, taking Nio as an example, Nio's definition of \"user experience\" refers to pre-sales, while most European and American markets usually define \"user experience\" more focused on after-sales. This advanced user experience design has been partially recognized by domestic consumers, and this structural adjustment can also be used in European and American markets.</p><p>\"But in terms of product design, 'Wei Xiaoli' needs to do more localized design, instead of directly taking Chinese mass-produced cars to review European standards and then directly listing them.\" Zhang Junyi further stated that in order to make localized products, perhaps in the future, 'Wei Xiaoli' needs to set up special research departments in overseas markets to launch targeted products according to the different needs of market segments and grasp the preferences of different consumers.</p><p>\"Wei Xiaoli\" Story 2.0</p><p>In addition to the similarities in the layout of overseas markets, the new story of \"Wei Xiaoli\" seems to have several other things in common, that is, the combination of high-end and software and hardware.</p><p>Nio, which already focuses on high-end, still insists on its strategy of high-priced cars. At the just-concluded Chengdu International Auto Show, the guide price of Nio's first public interior ET5 was 328,000-386,000 yuan, while the price of the ES7, which was delivered in August, was set at 468,000 yuan.</p><p>XPeng G9 is divided into four versions, priced at 296,800 yuan, 326,800 yuan, 376,800 yuan and 436,800 yuan respectively. The optional price of its flagship Xopera music cockpit is as high as 16,800 yuan. Ideal is no exception. Its L9, which was launched in June this year, has a guide price of 459,800 yuan.</p><p>It is not difficult to see that the first step in the high-end of \"Wei Xiaoli\" is to start with the price.</p><p>Regarding Wei Xiaoli's collective trend of \"rolling\" to the high-end market, Zhang Junyi said that on the one hand, it is to solve the above-mentioned decline in gross profit margin, and on the other hand, it is also to reflect the upgrading of domestic manufacturing.</p><p>\"The state also hopes that car companies can produce products with stronger product strength and greater brand effect, instead of blindly relying on subsidies from new energy policies to take the sinking route.\" Zhang Junyi further stated that, moreover, vehicles are ultimately consumer goods, and any consumer brand The ability to resist risks of luxury goods is always higher. Therefore, car companies also hope to improve their ability to withstand pressure on revenue through continuous high-end layout.</p><p>If you want to \"roll\" high-end, \"user experience\" is the brand value that must be done well. Obviously, \"Wei Xiaoli\" is also well aware of this importance, and has improved the intelligence of products and the technology of combining software and hardware.</p><p>For example, Nio ES7 tells the story about the smart cockpit. As the first SUV released on Nio's NT2 platform, ES7 is equipped with PanoCinema, a panoramic digital cockpit using AR/VR technology. Just two days before releasing its second-quarter financial report, Nio also released NIO Air AR Glasses, a native car AR glasses jointly developed with AR equipment company nreal. The first batch of 800 pairs was priced at a pre-sale price of 2,299 yuan.</p><p>Similar to Nio, Ideal has also started the layout of AR glasses. September 2,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/LI\">Li Auto</a>The two appearance patents of \"VR glasses\" and \"ring\" applied by the affiliated company Beijing Chehejia Automobile Technology Co., Ltd. were authorized.</p><p>\"This is a win-win cooperation.\" Regarding the phenomenon of \"new car-making forces\" \"exerting their strength\" on wearable devices, Zhang Junyi said that for car companies, on the one hand, even if the space inside the car is larger than before, there is a display screen, but the rear passengers may not see the screen due to the structure inside the car, and VR glasses can further cross the limitations of the space inside the car, which is an improvement of the vehicle experience itself. On the other hand, VR devices, including the layout of mobile phones by Nio car companies, are aimed at further extending the experience of human-computer interaction beyond the car.</p><p>On the other hand, XPeng, which has always focused on intelligence, has made an \"article\" on assisted driving and listening experience. At the chengdu international auto show, XPeng said that the G9 has the industry's first full-scenario intelligent assisted driving, which starts from a parking space and passes through parking lots, low-speed parks, urban roads, urban expressways, expressways, etc. until it arrives and parks in the terminal parking space, and performs intelligent assisted driving throughout the process.</p><p>In addition, Xopera XPeng Concert Hall, released at the same time as G9, is a new attempt made by XPeng by combining automotive hardware and software. According to official data, it can control the noise inside the car within 35 decibels (when the vehicle is stationary).</p><p>Regarding why XPeng chose music as one of the highlights of its combination of software and hardware, a supplier with in-depth cooperation with XPeng said to Burning Dimension Analysis, \"XPeng G9 has more space than the previously released SUV, and the combination of music and large space can maximize the added value of the interior space.\"</p><p>Xiaoyu said that in addition to increasing the added value of high-end routes, the combination of software and hardware is also a place where new forces have more advantages over the transformation of traditional car companies. The interaction between software and hardware is not only a breakthrough at the technical level, but also requires the cooperation of various departments in organization. However, the effective R&D and management processes of mainstream traditional car companies in the past few decades have become increasingly prominent when facing the electrification transformation. Problems such as complex organizational structure, lengthy processes, and poor internal information communication have become increasingly prominent. The formed internal interests The group has greater resistance and resistance to change, which leads to its conservative and passive development and layout of new energy vehicles.</p><p>In contrast, the \"new car-making forces\" have their own Internet attributes and flat management in organizational structure, and their founders are essentially product managers of their new forces. Compared with traditional car companies, the cross-departmental communication and collaboration costs of new forces have greatly improved product development efficiency with the advantage of reducing the difficulty of technology development.</p><p>At this stage, although the three members of the first echelon of the \"new car-making forces\" are trying to tell new stories, under the multiple competitive pressures of the catch-up of the second echelon and the active transformation of traditional car companies, \"Wei Xiaoli\" wants to tell a good story. New stories may not be easy.</p><p></body></html></p>","source":"lsy1601869087353","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>\"Wei Xiaoli\", \"rolled\" together again</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n\"Wei Xiaoli\", \"rolled\" together again\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">燃次元</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2022-09-12 14:28</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><html><head></head><body>With<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NIO\">Nio</a>Announcing the financial data for the second quarter of 2022, the three members of the first echelon of domestic \"new car-making forces\", \"Wei Xiaoli\", have all released their report cards for the first half of this year.</p><p>The data of these three transcripts all seem to be somewhat \"unsatisfactory\".</p><p>In the second quarter, Nio, XPeng, and Ideal achieved total revenue of 10.292 billion yuan (RMB, the same if not marked below), 7.436 billion yuan, and 8.73 billion yuan, respectively, a year-on-year increase of 21.8%, 97.7%, and 73.3%, respectively. While total revenue achieved year-on-year growth, the net losses of the three companies were 2.745 billion yuan, 2.7 billion yuan and 618 million yuan respectively, an increase of 316.4%, 126.1% and 163% respectively compared with last year.</p><p>\"Wei Xiaoli\", whose net loss has expanded far more than its revenue growth, seems to have confirmed the prophecy that new energy vehicles \"sell more and lose more\". To make matters worse, \"Wei Xiaoli\" did not hand over satisfactory sales data in the just-concluded August, but was overtaken by \"new car-making forces\" such as Leapmotor, Nezha Automobile and AITO Wenjie. Members of the second echelon overtook.</p><p>In this regard, Liu Ying, research director of Analysys Analysis's automobile travel industry, commented that on the one hand, the domestic epidemic has repeatedly limited the delivery speed of \"new car-making forces\", and at the same time, the shortage of chips and the price increase of new energy batteries have also caused a certain impact on production. impact. However, with the recovery of production capacity in the second half of the year, it is believed that the delivery speed will gradually increase.</p><p>As Liu Ying said, \"Wei Xiaoli\" gave optimistic forecasts about the sales and delivery of his own vehicles in the second half of the year at the second quarter financial report meeting.</p><p>It has responded positively to Ideal, which is preparing to stop production of \"Ideal ONE\", and is confident in the future performance of the new car L9. Ideal said, \"By September, we will deliver more than 10,000 L9s.\"</p><p>Nio also said that the second half of 2022 will be a critical period for Nio to expand production and deliver a variety of new products. ES7 will begin batch delivery in August, and ET5 will begin mass production and delivery at the end of September. The company is very confident in market demand, and the core of delivery still depends on the supply chain and production capacity.</p><p>While domestic delivery data is under pressure, \"Wei Xiaoli\" 's exploration in the European market has also attracted much attention.</p><p>As the \"pioneer\" of going overseas in \"Wei Xiaoli\", Nio stated at the second quarter financial report meeting that he would accelerate his overseas layout in Europe. In addition, XPeng has also exported cars to some European countries and regions. However, judging from the data, \"Wei Xiaoli\" has not yet \"conquered\" overseas markets.</p><p>Domestic delivery is difficult to climb, and foreign markets are even more difficult to break through. \"Wei Xiaoli\" has to \"roll\" to the updated story. It is not difficult to see from the layout of the three companies that their new stories seem to have a high degree of overlap in terms of high-end and the combination of software and hardware.</p><p>However, can \"Wei Xiaoli\", who has once again \"rolled\" to one place, return to the \"peak\" of the first echelon of \"new car-making forces\"?</p><p>Unsatisfactory domestic achievements</p><p>Judging from the released second quarter data, \"Wei Xiaoli\" seems to have a hard time.</p><p>First of all, the vehicle delivery data is unsatisfactory.</p><p>From the data point of view, the delivery data of Nio and XPeng have both increased. In August, Nio and XPeng delivered 10,677 vehicles and 9,578 vehicles respectively, a year-on-year increase of 81.6% and 33% respectively compared with the same period last year. However, Ideal delivered only 4,571 vehicles in August, a year-on-year decrease of 51.5% compared with 9,433 vehicles in the same period last year.</p><p>Looking at month-on-month data, only Nio had a slight increase of 6.2% compared with 10,052 vehicle deliveries in July. XPeng and Ideal had 17% and 56% sequential declines in deliveries, respectively.</p><p>And if compared with the August delivery volume of other \"new car-making forces\" car companies, the weakness of \"Wei Xiaoli\" is even more obvious. According to the statistics of Cheyu Wujiang, \"Wei Xiaoli\" ranked fifth, seventh and ninth respectively in the ranking of the delivery volume of the top ten new car manufacturers in the country in August.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/cb1b3f4c8ab80c529a174041ab989c86\" tg-width=\"720\" tg-height=\"326\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/>Data source/vehicle domain boundless statistics burning dimensional mapping</p><p>It is worth noting that the top three deliveries of new power car companies in August were those transformed from traditional car companies<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/002594\">BYD</a>And Guangzhou Automobile, and Nezha Automobile from the second echelon of \"new car-making forces\". After that, in cooperation with Huawei<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/601127\">Cyrus</a>The launched Wenjie series also achieved a breakthrough in sales, with 10,045 deliveries, surpassing XPeng and Ideal, and almost equal to Nio.</p><p>Many people in the industry attribute the current situation of \"Wei Xiaoli\" 's August delivery data to the result of \"the disappearance of the 'Wei Xiaoli' effect\". Zhang Junyi, managing partner of Oliver Wyman Consulting and former managing partner of Nio Capital, said that it is too early to judge the disappearance of the \"Wei Xiaoli\" effect just because of this. The poor performance of \"Wei Xiaoli\" in August was the result of a combination of cyclical and sporadic factors.</p><p>Zhang Junyi further analyzed that in terms of cyclical factors, new forces themselves have a plateau period of development and a challenge period of product switching. In addition, summer is not the peak sales season for car companies. Therefore, some car companies will also choose to rest their factories or launch iterative products at this time.</p><p>In terms of occasional factors, factors such as the recurrence of the epidemic and insufficient power supply in some areas will affect the delivery and production speed of car companies. \"Especially for enterprises with few outlets and relatively concentrated production scale such as'new car-making forces', the impact will be even greater.\" Zhang Junyi said bluntly.</p><p>On the one hand, the sales volume is unsatisfactory, and on the other hand, the profitability of \"Wei Xiaoli\" has not yet made a breakthrough.</p><p>According to the second quarter financial report of \"Wei Xiaoli\", the net losses of the three car companies in this quarter were 2.745 billion yuan, 2.7 billion yuan and 618 million yuan respectively, which were 316%, 126.1% and 163% respectively compared with the same period last year.%.</p><p>Although they are also in a state of expanding losses, the reasons why the three \"Wei Xiaoli\" companies \"sell more and lose more\" are different.</p><p>Among them, the ideal revenue growth rate cannot keep up with the growth rate of operating expenses. The financial report shows that Ideal achieved a total revenue of 8.73 billion yuan in the second quarter, a year-on-year increase of 73.3% compared with the same period last year, and a quarter-on-quarter decrease of 8.7% compared with the first quarter. But in comparison, in the second quarter, the ideal operating expenses were 2.86 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of more than 90% compared with the same period last year, and a quarter-on-quarter increase of 10.9% compared with the first quarter.</p><p>It is worth noting that Ideal's sales expenses in the second quarter were 1.33 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 58.6%. Ideal attributed the increase in sales expenses to \"the increase in personnel expansion expenses and rent expenses involved in expanding the sales network.\"</p><p>Judging from Ideal's store data, Ideal has indeed expanded significantly-in the second quarter of last year, Ideal had 114 physical stores in 69 cities across the country, and by the second quarter of this year, Ideal had 118 cities across the country. There are 265 physical stores, and the number of physical stores has increased by 132% year-on-year.</p><p>However, such channel expansion does not seem to bring gratifying sales growth to Ideal, especially in the special period when \"Ideal ONE\" announced the suspension of production and L9 failed to deliver in large quantities.</p><p>But as far as Ideal itself is concerned, it is full of confidence in the future performance of the new product L9 for iteration. At the second quarter financial report meeting, Ideal stated that many intended customers of Ideal ONE turned to L9 customers after seeing L9, even though there is a big gap in the prices of the two cars. Based on this, Ideal is also very confident in the future customers of L9 who will undertake the Ideal ONE iteration.</p><p>In this regard, Zhang Junyi said that this is a normal product iteration. \"The current iteration speed of new energy vehicles may be between 4-5 years, which is faster than the iteration speed of traditional fuel vehicles.\"</p><p>In Zhang Junyi's view, the main reasons for this phenomenon can be seen from four aspects. First, the iteration of product technology itself is getting faster and faster, and to introduce and reflect these technologies, it is necessary to adjust the vehicle model; Second, the current habit of many consumers is to change cars in 4-5 years, so car companies must keep up with this rhythm in order to be able to use new products to undertake the replacement of consumers; Third, the early models of new car manufacturers are also a process of summary and improvement, which will be faster than ordinary iterations; Fourth, new R&D investments are more concentrated in<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/5RE.SI\">smart</a>Electric vehicles will cause the iteration of new energy vehicles to be faster than that of fuel vehicles in the same period.</p><p>Chai Daixuan, director of CIC Consulting, expressed different views on the current iteration speed of new energy vehicles. Chai Daixuan said, \"At present, the elimination cycle of electric vehicles will not be shortened to less than five years.\"</p><p>Investigating the reason, Chai Daixuan further analyzed, first of all, for pure electric vehicles, the service life of power batteries is 5-8 years. Secondly, our country stipulates that the key components of new energy vehicles (batteries, electronic controls, motors) provide a warranty of no less than 8 years or 120,000 kilometers. During this cycle, maintenance is completely free, which will also reduce the number of consumers replacing trams. frequency.</p><p>Unlike Ideal, which is in the iteration period of products, Nio and XPeng \"fell down\" in the link of controlling production costs.</p><p>In the second quarter, Nio's gross profit margin was 13%, down 30.1% from 18.6% in the same period last year, and down 11% from the previous quarter's 14.6% gross profit margin. XPeng is also facing a year-on-year and quarter-on-quarter decline in gross profit margin. XPeng's gross profit margin in the second quarter was 9.1%, compared with 11% in the same period last year, while the gross profit margin in the previous quarter was 10.4%, a year-on-year decrease of 17.3%, a quarter-on-quarter decrease of 12.6%.</p><p>For the failure of production cost control, XPeng and Nio gave similar reasons, that is, rising battery costs. XPeng and Nio also unanimously stated that the impact of rising battery costs will be eliminated by the launch of some high-priced cars.</p><p>Xiaoyu, a senior practitioner in the automotive industry, said that due to the initial choice of extended range, Ideal has an advantage over XPeng and Nio in terms of production costs, which is why Ideal's gross profit margin has not declined significantly with the increase in battery costs. \"XPeng and Nio, which insist on pure electricity, must eliminate the impact of cost increases by increasing the selling price of cars, thereby stabilizing gross profit margins. This is one of the reasons why XPeng and Nio are accelerating their high-end layout.\"</p><p>Zhang Junyi added, \"The control of the cost of raw materials for complete vehicles is not a problem that can be solved by a few new forces, but only when the delivery and production volume of the entire new force industry has been greatly improved can the cost of the overall industry be systematically controlled.\"</p><p>Overseas business faces many obstacles</p><p>\"Wei Xiaoli\", who is struggling to climb the hill in China, is also looking at the international market.</p><p>In mid-June this year, after Nio's new product launch conference, Li Bin told the outside world that he would resolutely go to Europe and the United States. \"China is the most'voluminous' place in the world. If you can survive in China, there is no reason to survive in Europe and the United States.\"</p><p>At the second quarter financial report meeting, Nio also stated that ET7 will start deliveries with European countries and regions such as Sweden, Germany, and Norway this year.</p><p>In fact, as early as 2015, Nio had already set up a R&D center in Silicon Valley. At this financial report meeting, Nio said that the company had not been to the United States for some time due to the epidemic, so last month the company visited the R&D center in Silicon Valley to check the progress of the work. Nio optimistically mentioned that \"the time for Nio to enter the US market is getting closer and closer.\"</p><p>In Europe, in May 2021, Nio released its Norwegian strategy and officially announced its entry into the Norwegian market. Coincidentally, in the same month, Ideal also stated that it is currently accelerating the improvement of its layout in overseas markets, including studying product usage habits and channel exploration and laying in overseas markets, and has also established a team focusing on this project. Earlier in September 2020, the first batch<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/XPEV\">XPeng vehicles</a>It has also been sent to Norway.</p><p>\"The reason why both Nio and XPeng regard Norway as a'jumping platform 'to attack Europe is inseparable from Norway's friendly policy of new energy vehicles.\" Xiaoyu said, first of all, Norway, as a non-EU country, has various requirements for automobile companies. Relatively not so high. In addition, the Norwegian government strongly supports the development of new energy vehicles in many aspects, which also reduces the overall difficulty of automobile exports.</p><p>At the same time, Zhang Junyi said that it is also the general trend for \"Wei Xiaoli\" to go further overseas. \"'Wei Xiaoli' going overseas is an inevitable trend in an environment where China's manufacturing quality is getting better and better. In the past, the regions where Chinese companies exported were more concentrated in Asian, African and Latin American countries and regions. Now, with the improvement of China's productivity and product strength, exports to Europe and the United States markets is the only way to go.\"</p><p>Zhang Junyi added that, in fact, the product strength of domestic new energy vehicles is competitive in the European market. \"Judging from the development of platforms, products and technologies, in recent years, domestic policies have strongly supported and promoted new energy vehicle companies. The speed is very fast, and it can be said that some aspects have exceeded the capabilities of Europe, which is another reason why new forces can enter Europe.\"</p><p>\"On the other hand, the development of overseas business may also play a role in promoting the development of the domestic market.\" Zhang Junyi continued, taking Nio as an example, Nio vehicles directly target high-end automobile brands such as Audi, Mercedes-Benz, and BMW. To build such a brand, continuous internationalization is necessary. \"Even if the current main market of new forces is domestic, when the overseas business gradually matures, domestic consumers will also perceive the international influence of the brand, thus promoting the growth of sales in the domestic market. Therefore, even if you don't make money, the overseas business must'make money '.\"</p><p>However, the new forces going overseas also seem to perform average in terms of sales data.</p><p>According to Titanium Media, in the Norwegian market, among the best-selling<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/600617\">National New Energy</a>The model is Polestar 2, and its total sales from January to May were 1,984 units. In contrast, according to eu-evs data, XPeng and Nio will deliver only 474 vehicles and 200 vehicles in the European market in 2021, respectively.</p><p>\"This magnitude difference has a lot to do with the fact that 'Wei Xiaoli' has not yet established brand influence as a brand new domestic brand.\" Xiaoyu said that Polestar was originally a European and Swedish brand, which was later acquired by Volvo, and then Geely participated in the investment. Therefore, Polestar is not considered a \"native\" Chinese brand. \"Wei Xiaoli\" is different. Their influence in overseas markets needs to be laid from scratch little by little, which takes time.</p><p>Regarding the future competitive landscape of \"Wei Xiaoli\" in overseas markets, Zhang Junyi said, \"In fact, there are some ways that\" Wei Xiaoli \"can take in the domestic market. We can try whether it can adapt to the European and American markets.\"</p><p>For example, Zhang Junyi said, taking Nio as an example, Nio's definition of \"user experience\" refers to pre-sales, while most European and American markets usually define \"user experience\" more focused on after-sales. This advanced user experience design has been partially recognized by domestic consumers, and this structural adjustment can also be used in European and American markets.</p><p>\"But in terms of product design, 'Wei Xiaoli' needs to do more localized design, instead of directly taking Chinese mass-produced cars to review European standards and then directly listing them.\" Zhang Junyi further stated that in order to make localized products, perhaps in the future, 'Wei Xiaoli' needs to set up special research departments in overseas markets to launch targeted products according to the different needs of market segments and grasp the preferences of different consumers.</p><p>\"Wei Xiaoli\" Story 2.0</p><p>In addition to the similarities in the layout of overseas markets, the new story of \"Wei Xiaoli\" seems to have several other things in common, that is, the combination of high-end and software and hardware.</p><p>Nio, which already focuses on high-end, still insists on its strategy of high-priced cars. At the just-concluded Chengdu International Auto Show, the guide price of Nio's first public interior ET5 was 328,000-386,000 yuan, while the price of the ES7, which was delivered in August, was set at 468,000 yuan.</p><p>XPeng G9 is divided into four versions, priced at 296,800 yuan, 326,800 yuan, 376,800 yuan and 436,800 yuan respectively. The optional price of its flagship Xopera music cockpit is as high as 16,800 yuan. Ideal is no exception. Its L9, which was launched in June this year, has a guide price of 459,800 yuan.</p><p>It is not difficult to see that the first step in the high-end of \"Wei Xiaoli\" is to start with the price.</p><p>Regarding Wei Xiaoli's collective trend of \"rolling\" to the high-end market, Zhang Junyi said that on the one hand, it is to solve the above-mentioned decline in gross profit margin, and on the other hand, it is also to reflect the upgrading of domestic manufacturing.</p><p>\"The state also hopes that car companies can produce products with stronger product strength and greater brand effect, instead of blindly relying on subsidies from new energy policies to take the sinking route.\" Zhang Junyi further stated that, moreover, vehicles are ultimately consumer goods, and any consumer brand The ability to resist risks of luxury goods is always higher. Therefore, car companies also hope to improve their ability to withstand pressure on revenue through continuous high-end layout.</p><p>If you want to \"roll\" high-end, \"user experience\" is the brand value that must be done well. Obviously, \"Wei Xiaoli\" is also well aware of this importance, and has improved the intelligence of products and the technology of combining software and hardware.</p><p>For example, Nio ES7 tells the story about the smart cockpit. As the first SUV released on Nio's NT2 platform, ES7 is equipped with PanoCinema, a panoramic digital cockpit using AR/VR technology. Just two days before releasing its second-quarter financial report, Nio also released NIO Air AR Glasses, a native car AR glasses jointly developed with AR equipment company nreal. The first batch of 800 pairs was priced at a pre-sale price of 2,299 yuan.</p><p>Similar to Nio, Ideal has also started the layout of AR glasses. September 2,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/LI\">Li Auto</a>The two appearance patents of \"VR glasses\" and \"ring\" applied by the affiliated company Beijing Chehejia Automobile Technology Co., Ltd. were authorized.</p><p>\"This is a win-win cooperation.\" Regarding the phenomenon of \"new car-making forces\" \"exerting their strength\" on wearable devices, Zhang Junyi said that for car companies, on the one hand, even if the space inside the car is larger than before, there is a display screen, but the rear passengers may not see the screen due to the structure inside the car, and VR glasses can further cross the limitations of the space inside the car, which is an improvement of the vehicle experience itself. On the other hand, VR devices, including the layout of mobile phones by Nio car companies, are aimed at further extending the experience of human-computer interaction beyond the car.</p><p>On the other hand, XPeng, which has always focused on intelligence, has made an \"article\" on assisted driving and listening experience. At the chengdu international auto show, XPeng said that the G9 has the industry's first full-scenario intelligent assisted driving, which starts from a parking space and passes through parking lots, low-speed parks, urban roads, urban expressways, expressways, etc. until it arrives and parks in the terminal parking space, and performs intelligent assisted driving throughout the process.</p><p>In addition, Xopera XPeng Concert Hall, released at the same time as G9, is a new attempt made by XPeng by combining automotive hardware and software. According to official data, it can control the noise inside the car within 35 decibels (when the vehicle is stationary).</p><p>Regarding why XPeng chose music as one of the highlights of its combination of software and hardware, a supplier with in-depth cooperation with XPeng said to Burning Dimension Analysis, \"XPeng G9 has more space than the previously released SUV, and the combination of music and large space can maximize the added value of the interior space.\"</p><p>Xiaoyu said that in addition to increasing the added value of high-end routes, the combination of software and hardware is also a place where new forces have more advantages over the transformation of traditional car companies. The interaction between software and hardware is not only a breakthrough at the technical level, but also requires the cooperation of various departments in organization. However, the effective R&D and management processes of mainstream traditional car companies in the past few decades have become increasingly prominent when facing the electrification transformation. Problems such as complex organizational structure, lengthy processes, and poor internal information communication have become increasingly prominent. The formed internal interests The group has greater resistance and resistance to change, which leads to its conservative and passive development and layout of new energy vehicles.</p><p>In contrast, the \"new car-making forces\" have their own Internet attributes and flat management in organizational structure, and their founders are essentially product managers of their new forces. Compared with traditional car companies, the cross-departmental communication and collaboration costs of new forces have greatly improved product development efficiency with the advantage of reducing the difficulty of technology development.</p><p>At this stage, although the three members of the first echelon of the \"new car-making forces\" are trying to tell new stories, under the multiple competitive pressures of the catch-up of the second echelon and the active transformation of traditional car companies, \"Wei Xiaoli\" wants to tell a good story. New stories may not be easy.</p><p></body></html></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> source：<a href=\"https://cj.sina.cn/article/normal_detail?url=https://k.sina.cn/article_1704103183_65928d0f02002yiou.html\">燃次元</a></p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/47b6fbfe38edb1202883a645549da7f6","relate_stocks":{"BK1575":"同股不同权","NIO":"蔚来","BK4531":"中概回港概念","BK4099":"汽车制造商","BK4526":"热门中概股","BK4534":"瑞士信贷持仓","BK1587":"次新股","BK4555":"新能源车","BK1539":"汽车股","LI":"理想汽车","09868":"小鹏汽车-W","BK4505":"高瓴资本持仓","NIO.SI":"蔚来","BK4504":"桥水持仓","BK4532":"文艺复兴科技持仓","BK1119":"汽车制造商","XPEV":"小鹏汽车","EVS.SI":"MSCI China Electric Vehicles and Future Mobility ETF-NikkoAM","09866":"蔚来-SW","BK4548":"巴美列捷福持仓","BK4574":"无人驾驶","BK4551":"寇图资本持仓","02015":"理想汽车-W","BK1588":"回港中概股","BK4509":"腾讯概念","BK4581":"高盛持仓"},"source_url":"https://cj.sina.cn/article/normal_detail?url=https://k.sina.cn/article_1704103183_65928d0f02002yiou.html","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2266319619","content_text":"随着蔚来公布2022年第二季度的财务数据，国内“造车新势力”第一梯队的三家成员，“蔚小理”已全部发布了今年上半年的成绩单。这三份成绩单的数据似乎都有些“差强人意”。第二季度，蔚来、小鹏、理想分别实现总营收102.92亿元（人民币，以下未标注则同）、74.36亿元、87.3亿元，分别同比增长21.8％、97.7％、73.3％。总营收实现同比增长的同时，三家企业的净亏损分别为27.45亿元、27亿元和6.18亿元，较去年同比分别扩大316.4％、126.1％和163％。净亏损扩大程度远超过营收增长的“蔚小理”，似乎坐实了新能源汽车“越卖越亏”的谶言。“雪上加霜”的是，“蔚小理”在刚刚结束的8月份并没有交出令人满意的销量数据，而是被零跑汽车、哪吒汽车和AITO问界等“造车新势力”第二梯队的成员反超。对此，易观分析汽车出行行业研究总监刘影评价道，一方面，国内疫情反复限制了“造车新势力”的交付速度，而同时芯片短缺和新能源电池涨价也对生产造成了一定的影响。但随着下半年产能的恢复，相信交付速度会逐渐提高。正如刘影所说，“蔚小理”在第二季度的财报会议上，都对自家下半年车辆的销量和交付情况给予了乐观的预测。已经正面回应准备停产“理想ONE”的理想，对新车L9未来的表现信心十足。理想表示，“到9月，我们会交付超过1万辆L9。”蔚来也表示，2022年下半年，将是蔚来扩大生产和交付多款新产品的关键时期。ES7于8月开始批量交付、ET5将于9月底开始量产及交付，公司对于市场需求是非常有信心的，而交付的核心还是要看供应链和产能。在国内交付数据承压的同时，“蔚小理”先后在欧洲市场的探索也备受关注。作为“蔚小理”中的出海”先驱”，蔚来在第二季度财报会议上表示，会加速在欧洲地区的出海布局。此外，小鹏也已经将车出口到欧洲部分国家和地区。然而，从数据来看“蔚小理”尚未“征服”海外市场。国内交付爬坡艰难，国外市场更是难以攻破，“蔚小理”不得不“卷”向更新的故事。而从三家的布局中不难看出，他们的新故事似乎在高端化和软硬件结合上有高度重叠。然而，再次“卷”向一处的“蔚小理”，能重回“造车新势力”第一梯队的“巅峰”吗？国内成绩不尽人意从公布的第二季度数据来看，“蔚小理”的日子似乎都不好过。首先，是整车交付数据的不尽如人意。从数据来看，蔚来与小鹏的交付数据均有所增长。8月份，蔚来与小鹏的整车交付量分别为10677辆、9578辆，较去年同期的交付量同比增幅分别为81.6％和33％。但理想8月的整车交付仅有4571辆，相较于去年同期的9433辆同比下降51.5％。环比数据来看，只有蔚来相较于7月份的10052辆交付有6.2％的微增。小鹏和理想的交付量分别有17％和56％的环比下降。而如果与其他“造车新势力”车企的8月交付量相比，“蔚小理”的弱势则更为明显。据车域无疆统计，8月全国十大造车新势力交付量排名中，“蔚小理”分别排名第五、第七和第九。数据来源/车域无疆统计 燃次元制图值得注意的是，8月新势力车企交付量前三的分别是传统车企转型的比亚迪和广汽，和来自“造车新势力”第二梯队的哪吒汽车。之后，与华为合作的赛力斯推出的问界系列在销量上也实现了突破，以10045辆的交付，超过了小鹏与理想，且与蔚来几乎持平。不少业内人士将“蔚小理”8月交付数据的现状归因于“‘蔚小理’效应消失”的结果。而奥纬咨询董事合伙人、前蔚来资本管理合伙人张君毅则表示，仅仅因此来判断“蔚小理”效应消失，为时尚早。“蔚小理”8月表现不佳，是周期性和偶发性因素结合导致的结果。张君毅进一步分析道，周期性因素来说，新势力本身就有发展的平台期和产品切换挑战期，加之暑期本不是车企的销售旺季。因此，部分车企也会选择在这个时候休整工厂或者是上线迭代的产品。偶发性因素来说，部分地区疫情复发和供电不足等因素，均会影响车企的交付和生产速度。“尤其是对于‘造车新势力’这样网点少、生产规模比较集中的企业，影响就会更大。”张君毅直言。一边是销量的不尽如人意，另一边“蔚小理”的盈利能力也尚未有突破。据“蔚小理”第二季度财报，本季度三家车企的净亏损分别是27.45亿元、27亿元和6.18亿元，相较于去年同期的亏损扩幅分别为316％、126.1％和163％。虽然同样处于亏损扩大的状态，但“蔚小理”三家“越卖越亏”的理由却不尽相同。其中，理想营收增长的速度赶不上运营费用的增速。财报显示，第二季度理想实现了87.3亿元的总营收，较去年同期同比增幅为73.3％，较第一季度则有8.7％的环比降幅。但相较之下，第二季度，理想的运营费用为28.6亿元，较去年同期同比增幅大超90％，较第一季度环比增加10.9％。值得注意的是，理想第二季度的销售费用为13.3亿元，较去年同比增幅58.6％。理想将销售费用的增长归因于，“扩大销售网络中所涉及的人员扩招费用以及房租费用的上升。”从理想的门店数据来看，理想确实进行了大幅度的扩张——去年第二季度，理想在全国69座城市有114个实体店，而到了今年第二季度，理想已经在全国118座城市拥有了265个实体店，实体店的数量同比增幅达132％。不过，这样的渠道扩张似乎并没有给理想带来喜人的销量增长，尤其是在“理想ONE”宣布停产且L9未能大批量交付的特殊时期。但就理想自身而言，其对用于迭代的新品L9未来的表现，则充满信心。第二季度财报会议上，理想表示，原本很多理想ONE的意向客户在看到L9之后都转而成为了L9的客户，即使这两款车的售价有较大的差距。基于此，理想对于L9未来承接理想ONE迭代的客户也很有信心。对此，张君毅表示，这是一种正常的产品迭代，“新能源车型目前的迭代速度可能在4-5年之间，比传统燃油车的迭代速度更快一些。”在张君毅看来，之所以出现该现象，主要原因可从四个方面来看。第一，产品技术本身的迭代越来越快，要导入且体现这些技术需要调整车型；第二，很多消费者目前的习惯就是4-5年换车，因此车企为了能够用新品来承接换代的消费者也要跟上这样的节奏；第三，新造车企业的早期车型也是总结提升的过程，会比一般迭代要快；第四，新的研发投资更集中于智能电动车，会导致同期新能源汽车的迭代快于燃油车。而CIC灼识咨询总监柴代旋则对目前新能源车辆的迭代速度表达了不同看法，柴代旋表示，“目前来看，电车的淘汰周期并不会缩短至五年以内。”究其原因，柴代旋进一步分析道，首先，对于纯电动汽车来说，动力电池的使用年限为5-8年。其次，我国规定新能源车关键部件（电池、电控、电机）提供不少于8年或12万公里质保，在这个周期内，维修都是完全免费的，这也会侧面会减少消费者更换电车的频率。与理想处于产品的迭代期不同，蔚来和小鹏则“栽倒”在对生产成本把控的环节。第二季度，蔚来毛利率为13％，较去年同期18.6％的毛利率下降30.1％，较上个季度14.6％的毛利率，环比下降11％。小鹏也同样面临毛利率同比、环比双下降的情况，第二季度小鹏的毛利率为9.1％，去年同期毛利率为11％，而上季度的毛利率则为10.4％，同比降幅17.3％，环比降幅12.6％。对于生产成本控制的失利，小鹏和蔚来给出了相近的理由，即电池成本上升。而小鹏和蔚来也不约而同地说明了，电池成本上升的影响会被部分高价车的推出所消解。汽车行业资深从业者小宇表示，由于最开始选择增程式，理想在生产成本上相较小鹏和蔚来更有优势，这也是为什么理想的毛利率没有随着电池成本上升而出现明显的下滑，“坚持纯电的小鹏和蔚来则必须通过提高汽车的售价来消解成本提升带来的影响，从而稳住毛利率。这也是小鹏和蔚来加速高端化布局的原因之一。”张君毅则补充道，“整车原材料成本的控制不是几个新势力就能解决的问题，而是需要等到整个新势力行业的交付和生产量有较大提升的时候，整体行业的成本才能被系统性地控制。”出海业务，阻力重重在国内爬坡吃力的“蔚小理”，也看向了国际市场。今年6月中旬，蔚来汽车新品发布会后，李斌向外界表示，会坚决去欧洲、坚决去美国，“中国就是全球最‘卷’的地方，在中国能生存，在欧洲和美国没有理由生存不下去。”在第二季度的财报会议上，蔚来也表示ET7会在今年与瑞典、德国、挪威等欧洲国家和地区开启交付。事实上，早在2015年，蔚来就已经在硅谷设立了研发中心。此次财报会议上，蔚来表示因疫情原因公司已经有一段时间没有去美国，因此上个月公司访问了美国硅谷的研发中心查看工作进度。蔚来方面乐观提到，“距离蔚来进入美国市场的时间已经越来越近。”欧洲方面，2021年5月，蔚来发布挪威战略，正式宣布进入挪威市场。无独有偶，同月，理想也表示，目前正在加速完善对于海外市场的布局，包括研究海外市场的产品使用习惯以及渠道探索和铺设，并且也已经成立了专注于这一项目的团队。更早之前的2020年9月，第一批小鹏汽车也已经发往挪威。“蔚来和小鹏之所以都将挪威当成进攻欧洲的‘跳台’，与挪威新能源汽车的友好政策脱不开关系。”小宇表示，首先，挪威作为非欧盟国家，对于汽车企业的各项要求相对没有那么高。另外，挪威政府在多方面大力支持新能源汽车的发展，也降低了汽车出口的整体难度。与此同时，张君毅表示，“蔚小理”的进一步出海也是大势所趋。“‘蔚小理’出海是中国制造质量越来越好环境下的必然趋势。以往中国企业出口的地区更多集中于亚非拉国家和地区，现在随着中国生产力和产品力的提升，出口到欧洲和美国市场是必经之路。”张君毅补充道，实际上，国产新能源车的产品力在欧洲市场是有竞争力的，“从平台、产品和技术的发展情况来看，近年来，国内政策对新能源车企的大力扶持和推动速度非常快，可以说一些方面已经超过了欧洲的能力，这也是新势力能够进入欧洲的另一个原因。”“另一方面，出海业务的发展也可能起到促进国内市场发展的作用。”张君毅继续说道，以蔚来为例，蔚来汽车直接对标的是奥迪、奔驰、宝马等高端汽车品牌，想要打造这样一个品牌，持续的国际化是必要的，“即使新势力目前主攻的市场是国内，当出海业务逐渐成熟的时候，国内消费者也会感知到品牌的国际影响力，从而促使国内市场销量的增长。因此，即使不赚钱，出海业务也要‘赚吆喝’。”不过，出海的新势力在销量数据上似乎也表现得一般。据钛媒体报道，在挪威市场，卖得最好的中国新能源车型是极星2，其1-5月的总销量为1984辆。相较之下，根据eu-evs数据显示，2021年小鹏和蔚来在欧洲市场的交付量分别只有474辆和200辆。“这样量级的差异和‘蔚小理’作为全新国产品牌尚未建立品牌影响度有极大关系。”小宇表示，极星原本就是欧洲瑞典的品牌，后来被沃尔沃收购，再后来又有吉利参与投资。因此极星不算是个“土生土长”的中国品牌。“蔚小理”就不一样，在海外市场他们的影响力需要一点点从零开始铺设，这是需要时间的。对于“蔚小理”未来在海外市场的竞争格局，张君毅则表示，“其实‘蔚小理’在国内市场走通的路有一些可以尝试是否能适配到欧美市场。”张君毅举例表示，以蔚来为例，蔚来所定义的“用户体验”指的是售前，而通常大部分欧美市场对“用户体验”的定义则更多侧重于售后。这样较为超前的用户体验设计已经在国内消费者获得了部分的认可，而这种结构性调整也可以用于欧美市场中。“但在产品设计上，‘蔚小理’则需要做更多的本土化设计，而不是将中国量产的车直接拿去过审欧标，然后直接上市。”张君毅进一步表示，想要做好本土化的产品，也许未来‘蔚小理’需要在海外市场设立专门的调研部门，根据细分市场的不同需求，推出针对性的产品，抓住不同消费者的喜好。“蔚小理”故事2.0“蔚小理”的新故事，除了对海外市场的布局有着相似之处，其似乎还有其它几个共同点，即高端与软硬件结合。本就主打高端化的蔚来仍坚持其高价车的策略。在刚刚结束的成都国际车展上，蔚来首次公开内饰的ET5指导价在32.8-38.6万元，而8月开始交付的ES7，售价更是定到了46.8万元起步。小鹏G9分为四个版本，售价分别是29.68万元、32.68万元、37.68万元以及43.68万元。而其主打的Xopera音乐座舱选配价则高达1.68万元。理想也不例外，其于今年6月上市的L9指导价为45.98万元。不难看出，“蔚小理”高端化的第一步，是从价格开始。对于蔚小理集体“卷”向高端化市场的趋势，张君毅表示，一方面是为了解决上述提到的毛利率下滑的情况，另一方面，也是为了体现国产制造的升级。“国家也希望车企能够生产出产品力更强、品牌效应更大的产品，而不是一味地依靠新能源政策的补贴走下沉路线。”张君毅进一步表示，况且，车辆归根结底还是消费品，任何消费品牌奢侈品的抗风险能力总是更高的。因此，车企也希望通过持续高端化的布局提升自己营收的抗压能力。要想“卷”好高端，“用户体验”才是必须做好的品牌价值。显然，“蔚小理”也深知这一重要性，并纷纷提高产品的智能化和软硬件结合的技术。比如，蔚来ES7讲出的关于智能座舱的故事。作为蔚来NT2平台发布的第一台SUV，ES7搭载应用AR/VR技术的全景数字座舱PanoCinema。就在发布第二季度财报的前两日，蔚来也发布了与AR设备企业nreal携手开发的原生车载AR眼镜NIO Air AR Glasses，首批数量800副，预售价为2299元。与蔚来相似，理想也开始了AR眼镜的布局。9月2日，理想汽车关联公司北京车和家汽车科技有限公司申请的“VR眼镜”“指环”两项外观专利获得授权。“这是一项双赢的合作。”对于“造车新势力”向可穿戴设备“发力”的现象，张君毅表示，对车企来说，一方面，即使车内空间比以往更大，也有显示屏，但受限于车内构造后排乘客也有可能看不到屏幕，而VR眼镜可以进一步跨越车内空间的局限性，这是对车辆体验感本身的提升。另一方面，VR设备，包括蔚来车企对手机的布局都是为了进一步将人机交互的体验延伸到车机之外。另一边，始终主打智能化的小鹏则在辅助驾驶和听觉体验上做起了“文章”。成都国际车展上，小鹏方面表示，G9拥有行业首创的全场景智能辅助驾驶，从一个停车位启动，途经停车场、低速园区、城市道路、城市快速路、高速路等，直到抵达并泊入终点停车位，全程进行智能辅助驾驶。除此之外，与G9同时发布的Xopera小鹏音乐厅是小鹏在汽车硬件与软件结合下作出的新尝试，官方资料显示，其可以将车内噪声控制在35分贝内（车辆静止状态下）。对于小鹏为何选择音乐作为其软硬件结合的亮点之一，一位与小鹏有深度合作的供应商对燃次元分析表示，“小鹏G9较之前发布的SUV有更大的空间，而音乐与大空间的结合，能够最大限度地体现车内空间的附加价值。”小宇则表示，除了增加高端路线的附加价值，软硬件结合也是新势力相较于传统车企转型更有优势的地方。软硬件的交互不只是技术层面的突破，在组织上也需要各个部门的倾力配合。但主流传统车企在过去几十年里行之有效的研发与管理流程在面对电动化转型时，其组织架构复杂、流程冗长、内部信息沟通不畅等问题日益突出，已形成的内部利益集团对变革的抗拒与阻力较大，这就导致其在新能源车型的开发与布局方面较为保守，进而被动。相较之下，“造车新势力”在组织结构上自带互联网属性和扁平化管理，他们的创始人，本质上都是所属新势力的产品经理。与传统车企相比，新势力的跨部门沟通与协作成本在技术开发难度降低的优势加持下，极大提升了产品的开发效率。现阶段，尽管“造车新势力”第一梯队的三家成员在努力讲述新故事，但在第二梯队的追赶以及传统车企积极转型的多重竞争压力下，“蔚小理”想要讲好新故事，或并不容易。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"NIO.SI":0.6,"02015":0.9,"NIO":0.9,"EVS.SI":0.6,"LI":0.6,"09866":0.6,"XPEV":0.9,"09868":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":238,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":357618954317992,"gmtCreate":1728318929319,"gmtModify":1728318931187,"author":{"id":"3484871130175544","authorId":"3484871130175544","name":"点点的小爸爸","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d3accabc9f10fcda7c9d52e38e77507c","crmLevel":5,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3484871130175544","idStr":"3484871130175544"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a 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Mark","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6a0afb82c55be81a47100b877af9dd82","width":"1080","height":"2400"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/188217609916520","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1985,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":687888897,"gmtCreate":1660874296024,"gmtModify":1676536752536,"author":{"id":"3484871130175544","authorId":"3484871130175544","name":"点点的小爸爸","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d3accabc9f10fcda7c9d52e38e77507c","crmLevel":5,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3484871130175544","idStr":"3484871130175544"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"(•̀⌄•́)","listText":"(•̀⌄•́)","text":"(•̀⌄•́)","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/687888897","repostId":"1148070609","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1148070609","kind":"news","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"追踪全球财经热点，精选影响您财富的资讯，投资理财必备神器！","home_visible":1,"media_name":"华尔街见闻","id":"1084101182","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/66809d1f5c2e43e2bdf15820c6d6897e"},"pubTimestamp":1660831194,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1148070609?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2022-08-18 21:59","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"Behind the rebound in U.S. stocks: Quantitative funds close short positions, will they rise for another 100 days?","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1148070609","media":"华尔街见闻","summary":"量化基金“迅速而冷静地”转变立场，以迅雷之势抓住了“非常熊的市场”机会。","content":"<p><html><head></head><body>Quantitative funds changed their positions \"quickly and calmly\" and seized the opportunity of the \"very bear market\" with thunderbolt momentum. After the worst first half of the year ever, U.S. stocks started a rebound mode in the second half of the year. Since July, the Nasdaq Composite has gained nearly 17% and the S&P 500 has gained nearly 13%.</p><p>Behind the rebound in U.S. stocks, it highlights the gradual dissipation of investor pessimism. Quantitative funds that had previously shorted U.S. stocks on a large scale quickly closed their short positions and then turned to long positions.</p><p>In this regard, Nomura strategist Charlie McElligott said,<b>The quantitative fund changed its position \"quickly and calmly\" and seized the opportunity of the \"very bear market\" with thunderbolt momentum.</b></p><p><b>Quant funds pivot rapidly</b></p><p>Nomura estimates that trend-following hedge funds and volatility control funds have purchased $107 billion in global stock futures since the market hit lows in late June, with a significant portion spent closing short positions.</p><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BAC\">Bank of America</a>Glenn Koh, head of equity trading, said: \"With positions largely low and a lot of cash (holders) on the sidelines, more and more money is flowing back into the market as the market stabilises and starts to rebound.\"</p><p>According to a previous article on Wall Street Insights, in July, the quantitative trading strategy CTA lifted about $100 billion in bearish bets on stocks and bonds, pushing U.S. stocks and U.S. bonds to recover from the worst first half of the year in history.</p><p>according to<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/JPM\">JPMorgan Chase</a>According to estimates, commodity traders (CTAs) trading long and short in the futures market have closed the short positions they have built in the past few months, and by the end of July, their overall exposure was at neutral level for the first time since March.</p><p>However, with the risks of recession mounting, how long can this long be maintained?</p><p><b>100 days?</b></p><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/JPM\">JPMorgan Chase</a>Analysts say longs are likely to continue. The agency told its hedge fund clients last week that funds pursuing low volatility and risk parity funds are buying about $2 billion to $4 billion worth of stocks a day. The bank estimates that if volatility remains low, such long \"<b>Could last another 100 days</b>”。</p><p>JPMorgan strategist Marko Kolanovic said the rally has hit most corners of the market. In the past 50 days,<b>About 88% of S&P 500 stocks are trading above average, up from 2% in mid-June</b>。 Kolanovic says:</p><p>\"Strong participation suggests that this rally is durable and is another sign of fading risk at the tail of the market.\" \"Funds that pursue low volatility will increase overall exposure, particularly equities.\" Fund managers are more optimistic.<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BAC\">Bank of America</a>Strategist Michael Hartnett said after polling portfolio managers this month that they are \"no longer as pessimistic as the end of the world.\"</p><p><b>How long can U.S. stocks support under the aggressive rate hike of the Federal Reserve?</b></p><p>This depends in part on the extent of the Fed's next rate hike. Fed officials have warned that the rate hike will continue and may keep interest rates above traders' expectations. In addition, rising inflation and a recession are likely to continue to hit the market.</p><p>This also explains why the rise in U.S. stocks was not led by traditional fund managers and long-short stock hedge funds, but by quantitative funds.</p><p>\"You'll see some shorting,\" said Mike Lewis, head of U.S. cash equity trading at Barclays.</p><p>Bridgewater Fund believes that the current U.S. stock market is in a long-term and widespread stagflation environment, and the U.S. stock market is obviously not ready for a low-growth environment. The agency believes that to reduce inflation to the Fed's target level, its monetary policy must be strong enough to push the U.S. economy into recession. The significance of this to the market is self-evident.</p><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MS\">Morgan Stanley</a>It is believed that the good performance of many U.S.-listed companies is precisely due to the high returns brought about by high inflation, and as inflation declines, the profits of many companies will also decline, and their performance will be worse than market expectations. The bank's Mike Wilson team said:</p><p>“<b>The next round of U.S. stock declines may have to wait until September</b>At that time, our negative operating leverage theory will be more reflected in the earnings forecast. However, with U.S. stocks overvalued, we believe the best part of the rally is over. \"</body></html></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Behind the rebound in U.S. stocks: Quantitative funds close short positions, will they rise for another 100 days?</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nBehind the rebound in U.S. stocks: Quantitative funds close short positions, will they rise for another 100 days?\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/1084101182\">\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/66809d1f5c2e43e2bdf15820c6d6897e);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">华尔街见闻 </p>\n<p class=\"h-time smaller\">2022-08-18 21:59</p>\n</div>\n</a>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><html><head></head><body>Quantitative funds changed their positions \"quickly and calmly\" and seized the opportunity of the \"very bear market\" with thunderbolt momentum. After the worst first half of the year ever, U.S. stocks started a rebound mode in the second half of the year. Since July, the Nasdaq Composite has gained nearly 17% and the S&P 500 has gained nearly 13%.</p><p>Behind the rebound in U.S. stocks, it highlights the gradual dissipation of investor pessimism. Quantitative funds that had previously shorted U.S. stocks on a large scale quickly closed their short positions and then turned to long positions.</p><p>In this regard, Nomura strategist Charlie McElligott said,<b>The quantitative fund changed its position \"quickly and calmly\" and seized the opportunity of the \"very bear market\" with thunderbolt momentum.</b></p><p><b>Quant funds pivot rapidly</b></p><p>Nomura estimates that trend-following hedge funds and volatility control funds have purchased $107 billion in global stock futures since the market hit lows in late June, with a significant portion spent closing short positions.</p><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BAC\">Bank of America</a>Glenn Koh, head of equity trading, said: \"With positions largely low and a lot of cash (holders) on the sidelines, more and more money is flowing back into the market as the market stabilises and starts to rebound.\"</p><p>According to a previous article on Wall Street Insights, in July, the quantitative trading strategy CTA lifted about $100 billion in bearish bets on stocks and bonds, pushing U.S. stocks and U.S. bonds to recover from the worst first half of the year in history.</p><p>according to<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/JPM\">JPMorgan Chase</a>According to estimates, commodity traders (CTAs) trading long and short in the futures market have closed the short positions they have built in the past few months, and by the end of July, their overall exposure was at neutral level for the first time since March.</p><p>However, with the risks of recession mounting, how long can this long be maintained?</p><p><b>100 days?</b></p><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/JPM\">JPMorgan Chase</a>Analysts say longs are likely to continue. The agency told its hedge fund clients last week that funds pursuing low volatility and risk parity funds are buying about $2 billion to $4 billion worth of stocks a day. The bank estimates that if volatility remains low, such long \"<b>Could last another 100 days</b>”。</p><p>JPMorgan strategist Marko Kolanovic said the rally has hit most corners of the market. In the past 50 days,<b>About 88% of S&P 500 stocks are trading above average, up from 2% in mid-June</b>。 Kolanovic says:</p><p>\"Strong participation suggests that this rally is durable and is another sign of fading risk at the tail of the market.\" \"Funds that pursue low volatility will increase overall exposure, particularly equities.\" Fund managers are more optimistic.<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BAC\">Bank of America</a>Strategist Michael Hartnett said after polling portfolio managers this month that they are \"no longer as pessimistic as the end of the world.\"</p><p><b>How long can U.S. stocks support under the aggressive rate hike of the Federal Reserve?</b></p><p>This depends in part on the extent of the Fed's next rate hike. Fed officials have warned that the rate hike will continue and may keep interest rates above traders' expectations. In addition, rising inflation and a recession are likely to continue to hit the market.</p><p>This also explains why the rise in U.S. stocks was not led by traditional fund managers and long-short stock hedge funds, but by quantitative funds.</p><p>\"You'll see some shorting,\" said Mike Lewis, head of U.S. cash equity trading at Barclays.</p><p>Bridgewater Fund believes that the current U.S. stock market is in a long-term and widespread stagflation environment, and the U.S. stock market is obviously not ready for a low-growth environment. The agency believes that to reduce inflation to the Fed's target level, its monetary policy must be strong enough to push the U.S. economy into recession. The significance of this to the market is self-evident.</p><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MS\">Morgan Stanley</a>It is believed that the good performance of many U.S.-listed companies is precisely due to the high returns brought about by high inflation, and as inflation declines, the profits of many companies will also decline, and their performance will be worse than market expectations. The bank's Mike Wilson team said:</p><p>“<b>The next round of U.S. stock declines may have to wait until September</b>At that time, our negative operating leverage theory will be more reflected in the earnings forecast. However, with U.S. stocks overvalued, we believe the best part of the rally is over. \"</body></html></p>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/55eb327f580527889cf30bafa92692ae","relate_stocks":{".DJI":"道琼斯",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite"},"source_url":"","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1148070609","content_text":"量化基金“迅速而冷静地”转变立场，以迅雷之势抓住了“非常熊的市场”机会。在经历有史以来最糟糕的上半年之后，美股在下半年开启了反弹模式。自7月以来，纳斯达克综指上涨了近17%，标普500指数上涨了近13%。美股反弹的背后，凸显了投资者悲观情绪的逐渐消散，此前大规模做空美股的量化基金迅速关闭空仓，然后转为做多。对此，野村的策略师Charlie McElligott表示，量化基金“迅速而冷静地”转变立场，以迅雷之势抓住了“非常熊的市场”机会。量化基金迅速转向野村估计，自6月底市场触及低点以来，趋势跟踪对冲基金和波动控制基金已经购买了1070亿美元的全球股票期货，其中很大一部分用于平仓空头头寸。美国银行股票交易主管Glenn Koh表示：“由于仓位基本处于低位，大量现金（持有者）在场外观望，因此随着市场企稳并开始反弹，越来越多的资金流回了市场。”据华尔街见闻此前文章介绍，7月份，量化交易策略CTA解除了约1000亿美元看跌股票和债券的押注，推动美股和美债从史上最糟糕的上半年中开始复苏。根据摩根大通的估计，在期货市场进行多空双向交易的商品交易商（CTA）纷纷平掉了他们在过去几个月里建立的空头仓位，到7月底，他们的整体敞口自3月份以来首次处于中性水平。然而，随着衰退风险加剧，这种做多还能维持多久？100天？摩根大通分析师表示，做多可能会继续。该机构上周告诉其对冲基金客户，追求低波动的基金和风险平价基金每天购买价值约20亿至40亿美元的股票。该行估计，如果波动性保持在低水平，此类做多 “可能会再持续100天”。摩根大通策略师Marko Kolanovic表示，涨势已经触及市场的大部分角落。过去50天，标普500指数成分股中约有88%的交易价格高于平均水平，该比例远远高于6月中旬的2%。Kolanovic说：“强劲的参与度表明这次反弹是持久的，也是市场尾部风险消退的另一个表现。”“追求低波动的基金将增加整体风险敞口，尤其是股票。”基金经理则更加乐观。美国银行策略师Michael Hartnett本月对投资组合经理进行民意调查后表示，他们“不再像世界末日一样悲观”。美联储激进加息下，美股能支持多久？这在一定程度上取决于美联储接下来的加息幅度。美联储官员曾警告称，将会继续加息并可能将利率维持在交易员预期的上方。另外，通胀加剧和经济衰退也可能继续冲击市场。这也解释了为什么此次美股上涨不是由传统的基金经理和多空股票对冲基金引领，而是由量化基金驱动。巴克莱美国现金股票交易主管Mike Lewis表示：“你会看到一些人做空。”桥水基金认为，当前美股处在一个长期、广泛的滞胀环境中，美股显然还没为一个低增长的环境做好准备。该机构认为，要将通胀降至美联储的目标水平，其货币政策的力度必须大到将美国经济推入衰退。这对市场的意义不言而喻。摩根士丹利则认为，很多美股上市公司表现好恰恰是由于高通胀带来的高收益，而随着通胀下行，很多公司的利润也将下行，其表现将逊于市场预期。该行的Mike Wilson团队表示：“下一轮美股下跌可能要等到9月，届时我们的负经营杠杆理论将更多地反映在盈利预测中。然而，由于美股估值过高，我们认为涨势最好的部分已经结束。”","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{".IXIC":0.9,".SPX":0.9,".DJI":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":365,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":687128283,"gmtCreate":1660816086945,"gmtModify":1676536750387,"author":{"id":"3484871130175544","authorId":"3484871130175544","name":"点点的小爸爸","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d3accabc9f10fcda7c9d52e38e77507c","crmLevel":5,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3484871130175544","idStr":"3484871130175544"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"（ '▿ ' ）","listText":"（ '▿ ' ）","text":"（ '▿ ' 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International Group宜家家居於1943年創建，宜家集團是瑞典傢俱賣場。 IKEA發展穩健而迅速，在60年的時間裏，發展到在全球共有240家連鎖商店，分佈在43個國家，僱傭員工7萬多名。2003財年度IKEA獲取了110億歐元的銷售收入和超過11億歐元的淨利潤，成爲全球最大的家居用品零售商。大部分的門市位於歐洲，其他的則位於美國、加拿大、亞洲和澳洲。每年印刷量高達一億本的IKEA商品目錄中，收錄有大約12000件的商品，號稱是除了聖經之外最被廣爲散佈的書籍。1998年，宜家進入中國市場。首店落子上海徐家彙。彼時，國內同行還以“大棚式”的市場業態爲主，買傢俱到菱方圓、十六鋪，買燈具到柳林路，買建材到宜山路……兜兜轉轉花上幾個雙休日。而有了宜家，傢俱家居不僅一站式購齊，購物","listText":"在中國家居市場上，宜家一直都是大家關注的焦點。作爲來自北歐的著名家居企業，宜家曾經一度是中國的網紅店，很多宜家都是門庭若市，甚至需要排隊，然而就在最近宜家卻出現了比較罕見的連續關店現象。2022年4月1日，貴陽唯一的宜家門店關閉。宜家貴陽店從2019年10月營業，截止到今年4月1日營業時間不超過3年。2022年6月13日，宜家中國諮詢中心在其微信公衆號上發佈：“宜家中國對楊浦商場的長期可行性進行了綜合分析，並考慮從7月初開始，不再保留其作爲上海顧客觸點矩陣的一部分”。宜家上海楊浦商場在2020年3月開店，是宜家在中國的首家小型商場。當時爲了更好融入當地，宜家楊浦店特意增加了很多親子元素，而且，它是作爲宜家探索新商場模式的首個項目，但開業僅2年就關閉了。關於宜家門店關閉的原因，宜家官方解釋是“面對日趨複雜的零售市場，以及數字化和疫情等因素帶來的消費者行爲轉變，宜家中國不斷審視、評估和顧客需求，在必要時轉型、關閉或新增業務單元和渠道，並探索各類創新的顧客觸點模式。”公開資料顯示，宜家集團IKEA International Group宜家家居於1943年創建，宜家集團是瑞典傢俱賣場。 IKEA發展穩健而迅速，在60年的時間裏，發展到在全球共有240家連鎖商店，分佈在43個國家，僱傭員工7萬多名。2003財年度IKEA獲取了110億歐元的銷售收入和超過11億歐元的淨利潤，成爲全球最大的家居用品零售商。大部分的門市位於歐洲，其他的則位於美國、加拿大、亞洲和澳洲。每年印刷量高達一億本的IKEA商品目錄中，收錄有大約12000件的商品，號稱是除了聖經之外最被廣爲散佈的書籍。1998年，宜家進入中國市場。首店落子上海徐家彙。彼時，國內同行還以“大棚式”的市場業態爲主，買傢俱到菱方圓、十六鋪，買燈具到柳林路，買建材到宜山路……兜兜轉轉花上幾個雙休日。而有了宜家，傢俱家居不僅一站式購齊，購物","text":"在中國家居市場上，宜家一直都是大家關注的焦點。作爲來自北歐的著名家居企業，宜家曾經一度是中國的網紅店，很多宜家都是門庭若市，甚至需要排隊，然而就在最近宜家卻出現了比較罕見的連續關店現象。2022年4月1日，貴陽唯一的宜家門店關閉。宜家貴陽店從2019年10月營業，截止到今年4月1日營業時間不超過3年。2022年6月13日，宜家中國諮詢中心在其微信公衆號上發佈：“宜家中國對楊浦商場的長期可行性進行了綜合分析，並考慮從7月初開始，不再保留其作爲上海顧客觸點矩陣的一部分”。宜家上海楊浦商場在2020年3月開店，是宜家在中國的首家小型商場。當時爲了更好融入當地，宜家楊浦店特意增加了很多親子元素，而且，它是作爲宜家探索新商場模式的首個項目，但開業僅2年就關閉了。關於宜家門店關閉的原因，宜家官方解釋是“面對日趨複雜的零售市場，以及數字化和疫情等因素帶來的消費者行爲轉變，宜家中國不斷審視、評估和顧客需求，在必要時轉型、關閉或新增業務單元和渠道，並探索各類創新的顧客觸點模式。”公開資料顯示，宜家集團IKEA International Group宜家家居於1943年創建，宜家集團是瑞典傢俱賣場。 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