李菲特 personal page - To The Moon

李菲特

李菲特

先定个10倍小目标呗，持续为大家分享

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2021-06-11

Tiger is here！

One picture to understand Didi's prospectus: spread across 15 countries, with an average daily order volume of 41 million

2021-06-11

Tiger is here！

Taking history as a mirror, the deduction and impact of inflation soaring in the United States

2021-06-11

Tiger is here

@骚话连篇:三孩生育政策爆笑段子汇总

2021-06-11

Tiger is here

@漫投资:意不意外？开不开心？

2021-06-11

Tiger is here

@小虎AV:【直播预告】看老虎7周年直播，赢全球限量大礼包！

2021-06-11

Tiger is here

@胖虎哒哒:数字外包商TaskUs上市，内容审核是门好生意吗？

2021-06-11

Tiger is here

@荒野侦探:【财富密码】WSB新宠：CLOV，WISH，WEN，SOFI

2021-06-11

Tiger is here

One picture to understand Didi's prospectus: spread across 15 countries, with an average daily order volume of 41 million

2021-06-11

Tiger is here

Taking history as a mirror, the deduction and impact of inflation soaring in the United States

2021-06-11

Tiger is here！

Taking history as a mirror, the deduction and impact of inflation soaring in the United States

2021-06-11

Tiger is here！

One picture to understand Didi's prospectus: spread across 15 countries, with an average daily order volume of 41 million

Go to Tiger App to see more news

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href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/DIDI\">Didi Chuxing</a>Xiaoju Kuaizhi, the operating entity, submitted an IPO prospectus to the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC), and plans to be listed on the Nasdaq stock market or the New York Stock Exchange with the stock code \"DIDI\".</p><p>According to the data disclosed by Didi, at present, Didi has opened business in more than 4,000 cities and regions in 15 countries, with an annual number of active users of 493 million, an annual number of active drivers of 15 million, an average daily order volume of 41 million, a total annual platform transaction volume of 341 billion yuan, and a cumulative driver income of 600+ billion yuan from 2018 to Q1 of 2021.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2a935c6b681f2f3744604b5596e29cac\" tg-width=\"2100\" tg-height=\"13686\"></p><p><hr>Congratulations on finding the letter I and participating in the \"Tiger Search\" activity. If you leave a message \"Tiger is here\" in the next post, you can get 100 Tiger coins. If you collect 7 pictures and leave a message, you can also get a 7th anniversary limited gift box. (For details, please click<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/TW/181890541\" target=\"_blank\">[7th Anniversary Award-winning Activity] Tiger Search</a>Understanding)<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ba72fe98df37f49a4d31b0a0684a03aa\" tg-width=\"214\" tg-height=\"286\"></p>","source":"txkj","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>One picture to understand Didi's prospectus: spread across 15 countries, with an average daily order volume of 41 million</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nOne picture to understand Didi's prospectus: spread across 15 countries, with an average daily order volume of 41 million\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">腾讯科技</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-06-11 11:30</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>June 11th news, Thursday local time in the United States,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/DIDI\">Didi Chuxing</a>Xiaoju Kuaizhi, the operating entity, submitted an IPO prospectus to the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC), and plans to be listed on the Nasdaq stock market or the New York Stock Exchange with the stock code \"DIDI\".</p><p>According to the data disclosed by Didi, at present, Didi has opened business in more than 4,000 cities and regions in 15 countries, with an annual number of active users of 493 million, an annual number of active drivers of 15 million, an average daily order volume of 41 million, a total annual platform transaction volume of 341 billion yuan, and a cumulative driver income of 600+ billion yuan from 2018 to Q1 of 2021.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2a935c6b681f2f3744604b5596e29cac\" tg-width=\"2100\" tg-height=\"13686\"></p><p><hr>Congratulations on finding the letter I and participating in the \"Tiger Search\" activity. If you leave a message \"Tiger is here\" in the next post, you can get 100 Tiger coins. If you collect 7 pictures and leave a message, you can also get a 7th anniversary limited gift box. (For details, please click<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/TW/181890541\" target=\"_blank\">[7th Anniversary Award-winning Activity] Tiger Search</a>Understanding)<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ba72fe98df37f49a4d31b0a0684a03aa\" tg-width=\"214\" tg-height=\"286\"></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> source：<a href=\"https://new.qq.com/rain/a/20210611A02NC800\">腾讯科技</a></p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b9f14473f3e986de32cc80f6fd80b679","relate_stocks":{"DIDI":"滴滴(已退市)"},"source_url":"https://new.qq.com/rain/a/20210611A02NC800","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1140839418","content_text":"6月11日消息，美国当地时间周四，滴滴出行的运营主体小桔快智向美国证券交易委员会（SEC）提交了IPO招股书，计划在纳斯达克股票市场或纽约证券交易所挂牌上市，股票代码为“DIDI”。\n根据滴滴披露的数据显示，目前滴滴已经在15个国家的4000多个城市和地区开通业务，年活跃用户数量4.93亿，年活跃司机数量1500万，日均单量4100万，年平台交易总额3410亿元，2018年至2021年Q1累计司机收入6000+亿元。\n\n\n恭喜您找到了字母I，参与《老虎大搜查》活动，下帖留言“ Tiger is here” 即可获赠100虎币，如集齐7张图片并留言，还可获赠7周年限定礼盒。（详情请点击【七周年有奖活动】老虎大搜查 了解）","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"DIDI":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2611,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":181431698,"gmtCreate":1623405846814,"gmtModify":1704202719811,"author":{"id":"3494282548206344","authorId":"3494282548206344","name":"李菲特","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/400c37df7718cdcde0948e6e9b83f30c","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3494282548206344","idStr":"3494282548206344"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Tiger is here！","listText":"Tiger is here！","text":"Tiger is here！","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/181431698","repostId":"1156453091","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"1156453091","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1623333482,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1156453091?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2021-06-10 21:58","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"Taking history as a mirror, the deduction and impact of inflation soaring in the United States","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1156453091","media":"川阅全球宏观","summary":"美国东部时间2021年6月10日，美国劳工部发布5月通胀数据。美国5月CPI同比升5.0%、核心CPI同比升3.8%，创2008年8月以来最大增幅。今年年初以来，美国通胀率加速上升，美联储6月议息会议在即，市场上通胀担忧挥之不去。我们回顾了历史上美国通胀的几次飙升，以便更好地理解本次的通胀及其影响：。1960年以来美国CPI同比破5%出现了4次(图1)。本次通胀飙升的主要原因在于疫情下的基数效应和供给短缺。房租价格走势对未来通胀的演绎有重要影响。","content":"<p>On June 10, 2021 EDT, the U.S. Department of Labor released inflation data for May.<b>In May, the CPI of the United States rose by 5.0% year-on-year, and the core CPI rose by 3.8% year-on-year, the largest increase since August 2008. Since the beginning of this year, the inflation rate in the United States has accelerated, and the Federal Reserve's interest rate meeting in June is imminent. Inflation worries in the market linger.</b>We have reviewed several spikes in U.S. inflation throughout history to better understand this one and its impact:</p><p><b>Since 1960, the U.S. CPI has broken 5% year-on-year four times</b>(FIG. 1). We conducted a review of the economic fundamentals and Fed policy from the period when CPI broke 4%, broke 5% and retreated (Table 1).</p><p><b>1968/06-1971/09</b>: The economy is in recession, but the residual warmth of large government spending and fiscal stimulus in the early period is still there, and inflation continues to rise. The Federal Reserve tightened monetary policy in 1970 to curb inflation.</p><p><b>1973/03-1982/11：</b>Under the double blow of the food crisis and the oil crisis, the US economy fell into stagflation, and supply shocks and costs pushed up inflation. Government price controls failed and monetary policy lacked independence and was too lagging to successfully curb inflation.</p><p><b>1987/08-1991/07：</b>After emerging from stagflation, the U.S. economy experienced high growth, but began to slow down in 1987, and there was upward pressure on wages and prices, and the Federal Reserve tightened monetary policy.</p><p><b>2007/11-2008/09：</b>The soaring oil price pushed up inflation, and the financial crisis broke out. The first task of the Federal Reserve's monetary policy was to bail out the market, and inflation was not in its focus.</p><p><b>The causes of current inflation are similar to those of 1973-1982 inflation, both of which are cost-driven.</b></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/327f6f12c3af30abee8fa0ae334f9763\" tg-width=\"1006\" tg-height=\"611\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0ca353ebcbaf95ba1da0b46a815d5f8b\" tg-width=\"1025\" tg-height=\"853\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><b>The main reason for this surge in inflation lies in the base effect and supply shortage under the pandemic.</b>The US CPI recorded 5.0% in May this year (the highest level since August 2008), but<b>From the perspective of CPI index, the compound growth rate in May 2021 relative to May 2019 was only 2.5%.</b></p><p><b>For this year's deduction of inflation, we focus on the two sub-items of used cars and rent.</b></p><p><b>One of the main thrust forces for inflation is used cars.</b>Under the deterioration of the epidemic situation in Southeast Asia, many chip factories shut down, and the shortage of chips led to the reduction of production by car companies. The supply of new cars is insufficient, the demand for used cars has soared, and prices have skyrocketed (Figure 2). According to Manheim data, used vehicle sales prices increased more than new vehicles in 2021 (Figure 3). In addition, other transportation-related price increases widened further in May, with the increase in transportation service prices expanding to 11.2% from 5.6% in April, doubling the increase.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/884ed39a8682a3df05e8411f17f2105c\" tg-width=\"995\" tg-height=\"585\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/599b70f4fadb590d0d7b20254d4b1403\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"738\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><b>The trend of rent prices has an important impact on the deduction of future inflation.</b>The weight of rent in the US CPI is high (about 30%). Although the growth rate of rent is relatively modest compared with other sub-items (2.2% year-on-year in May this year), the growth rate slope has steepened since the beginning of the year (Figure 4).<b>It is expected that rent will continue to rise moderately in the future, affected by supply shortages</b>。</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/869c4f313152d3a14769097f150fb674\" tg-width=\"1021\" tg-height=\"644\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><b>What is the trend of inflation expectations?</b></p><p>From a consumer perspective, Michigan's expected inflation data shows that 2<b>In May 2021, the five-year inflation expectation of U.S. consumers jumped to 3.0% from 2.7% last month (Figure 5), but it is still lower than the 3.5% that the Federal Reserve can tolerate.</b></p><p>From the perspective of policymakers, as stated in our previous report, the Fed focuses on the monitoring of inflation expectations, and the key indicators are<b>Common Inflation Expectations Index (CIE), CIE is quarterly data, and data for the second quarter of 2021 is expected to be released by the end of this month.</b></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/21708bec0c792eb9299eda62ba3cd077\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"666\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><b>How will future inflation affect asset prices?</b></p><p>We review the changes of the yields of US dollars, US stocks and US bonds in different time intervals after CPI broke 4% in the above four major inflations (Table 2):<b>Inflation has a negative impact on the US dollar and US stocks. The former lags behind, while the latter is reflected within one month.</b>Interestingly, the impact of inflation on US debt yields is irregular. For the research framework of US debt, please refer to our previous report.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/037d9e565ff952b13c942386e8d08506\" tg-width=\"1059\" tg-height=\"599\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><b>Risk warning:</b>Geopolitical risks mount as Fed tightens monetary policy too quickly</p><p><hr>Congratulations on finding the letter E and participating in the \"Tiger Search\" activity. If you leave a message \"Tiger is here\" in the next post, you can get 100 Tiger coins. If you collect 7 pictures and leave a message, you can also get a 7th anniversary limited gift box. (For details, please click<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/TW/181890541\" target=\"_blank\">[7th Anniversary Award-winning Activity] Tiger Search</a>Understanding)</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b519142d901e1ef1ff2a2e443798687b\" tg-width=\"214\" tg-height=\"286\"></p>","source":"lsy1582083733592","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Taking history as a mirror, the deduction and impact of inflation soaring in the United States</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nTaking history as a mirror, the deduction and impact of inflation soaring in the United States\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">川阅全球宏观</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-06-10 21:58</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>On June 10, 2021 EDT, the U.S. Department of Labor released inflation data for May.<b>In May, the CPI of the United States rose by 5.0% year-on-year, and the core CPI rose by 3.8% year-on-year, the largest increase since August 2008. Since the beginning of this year, the inflation rate in the United States has accelerated, and the Federal Reserve's interest rate meeting in June is imminent. Inflation worries in the market linger.</b>We have reviewed several spikes in U.S. inflation throughout history to better understand this one and its impact:</p><p><b>Since 1960, the U.S. CPI has broken 5% year-on-year four times</b>(FIG. 1). We conducted a review of the economic fundamentals and Fed policy from the period when CPI broke 4%, broke 5% and retreated (Table 1).</p><p><b>1968/06-1971/09</b>: The economy is in recession, but the residual warmth of large government spending and fiscal stimulus in the early period is still there, and inflation continues to rise. The Federal Reserve tightened monetary policy in 1970 to curb inflation.</p><p><b>1973/03-1982/11：</b>Under the double blow of the food crisis and the oil crisis, the US economy fell into stagflation, and supply shocks and costs pushed up inflation. Government price controls failed and monetary policy lacked independence and was too lagging to successfully curb inflation.</p><p><b>1987/08-1991/07：</b>After emerging from stagflation, the U.S. economy experienced high growth, but began to slow down in 1987, and there was upward pressure on wages and prices, and the Federal Reserve tightened monetary policy.</p><p><b>2007/11-2008/09：</b>The soaring oil price pushed up inflation, and the financial crisis broke out. The first task of the Federal Reserve's monetary policy was to bail out the market, and inflation was not in its focus.</p><p><b>The causes of current inflation are similar to those of 1973-1982 inflation, both of which are cost-driven.</b></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/327f6f12c3af30abee8fa0ae334f9763\" tg-width=\"1006\" tg-height=\"611\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0ca353ebcbaf95ba1da0b46a815d5f8b\" tg-width=\"1025\" tg-height=\"853\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><b>The main reason for this surge in inflation lies in the base effect and supply shortage under the pandemic.</b>The US CPI recorded 5.0% in May this year (the highest level since August 2008), but<b>From the perspective of CPI index, the compound growth rate in May 2021 relative to May 2019 was only 2.5%.</b></p><p><b>For this year's deduction of inflation, we focus on the two sub-items of used cars and rent.</b></p><p><b>One of the main thrust forces for inflation is used cars.</b>Under the deterioration of the epidemic situation in Southeast Asia, many chip factories shut down, and the shortage of chips led to the reduction of production by car companies. The supply of new cars is insufficient, the demand for used cars has soared, and prices have skyrocketed (Figure 2). According to Manheim data, used vehicle sales prices increased more than new vehicles in 2021 (Figure 3). In addition, other transportation-related price increases widened further in May, with the increase in transportation service prices expanding to 11.2% from 5.6% in April, doubling the increase.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/884ed39a8682a3df05e8411f17f2105c\" tg-width=\"995\" tg-height=\"585\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/599b70f4fadb590d0d7b20254d4b1403\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"738\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><b>The trend of rent prices has an important impact on the deduction of future inflation.</b>The weight of rent in the US CPI is high (about 30%). Although the growth rate of rent is relatively modest compared with other sub-items (2.2% year-on-year in May this year), the growth rate slope has steepened since the beginning of the year (Figure 4).<b>It is expected that rent will continue to rise moderately in the future, affected by supply shortages</b>。</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/869c4f313152d3a14769097f150fb674\" tg-width=\"1021\" tg-height=\"644\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><b>What is the trend of inflation expectations?</b></p><p>From a consumer perspective, Michigan's expected inflation data shows that 2<b>In May 2021, the five-year inflation expectation of U.S. consumers jumped to 3.0% from 2.7% last month (Figure 5), but it is still lower than the 3.5% that the Federal Reserve can tolerate.</b></p><p>From the perspective of policymakers, as stated in our previous report, the Fed focuses on the monitoring of inflation expectations, and the key indicators are<b>Common Inflation Expectations Index (CIE), CIE is quarterly data, and data for the second quarter of 2021 is expected to be released by the end of this month.</b></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/21708bec0c792eb9299eda62ba3cd077\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"666\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><b>How will future inflation affect asset prices?</b></p><p>We review the changes of the yields of US dollars, US stocks and US bonds in different time intervals after CPI broke 4% in the above four major inflations (Table 2):<b>Inflation has a negative impact on the US dollar and US stocks. The former lags behind, while the latter is reflected within one month.</b>Interestingly, the impact of inflation on US debt yields is irregular. For the research framework of US debt, please refer to our previous report.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/037d9e565ff952b13c942386e8d08506\" tg-width=\"1059\" tg-height=\"599\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><b>Risk warning:</b>Geopolitical risks mount as Fed tightens monetary policy too quickly</p><p><hr>Congratulations on finding the letter E and participating in the \"Tiger Search\" activity. If you leave a message \"Tiger is here\" in the next post, you can get 100 Tiger coins. If you collect 7 pictures and leave a message, you can also get a 7th anniversary limited gift box. (For details, please click<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/TW/181890541\" target=\"_blank\">[7th Anniversary Award-winning Activity] Tiger Search</a>Understanding)</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b519142d901e1ef1ff2a2e443798687b\" tg-width=\"214\" tg-height=\"286\"></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> source：<a href=\"https://www.zhitongcaijing.com/content/detail/492521.html\">川阅全球宏观</a></p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/93c3dba7c4b0e443e40fe6df5639434d","relate_stocks":{".DJI":"道琼斯"},"source_url":"https://www.zhitongcaijing.com/content/detail/492521.html","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1156453091","content_text":"美国东部时间2021年6月10日，美国劳工部发布5月通胀数据。美国5月CPI同比升5.0%、核心CPI同比升3.8%，创2008年8月以来最大增幅。今年年初以来，美国通胀率加速上升，美联储6月议息会议在即，市场上通胀担忧挥之不去。我们回顾了历史上美国通胀的几次飙升，以便更好地理解本次的通胀及其影响：\n1960年以来美国CPI同比破5%出现了4次(图1)。我们对CPI破4%、破5%至回落期间的经济基本面和美联储政策进行了复盘(表1)。\n1968/06-1971/09：经济陷入衰退，但前期大幅政府开支与财政刺激的余温仍在，通胀持续上升，美联储在1970年收紧货币政策以抑制通胀。\n1973/03-1982/11：粮食危机和石油危机的双重打击下，美国经济陷入滞胀，供给冲击与成本推升通胀。政府价格管制失败，货币政策缺乏独立性并且过于滞后，未能成功抑制通胀。\n1987/08-1991/07：走出滞胀后，美国经济经历了高速增长，但1987年开始经济增速放缓，并出现工资和价格上涨压力，美联储收紧货币政策。\n2007/11-2008/09：油价飙升推升通胀，金融危机爆发，美联储货币政策的首要任务在于救市，通胀不在其重点关注范围内。\n当前的通胀和1973-1982年通胀的成因较为相似，均为成本推动。\n\n本次通胀飙升的主要原因在于疫情下的基数效应和供给短缺。今年5月美国CPI录得5.0%(为2008年8月以来的最高水平)，但是从CPI指数角度，2021年5月相对于2019年5月的复合增速仅为2.5%。\n对于今年通胀的演绎，我们重点关注二手车和房租两个分项。\n通胀的主要推力之一为二手车。东南亚疫情恶化下多地芯片厂停工，芯片短缺导致车企减产。新车供应不足，二手车需求剧增，价格飙升(图2)。根据Manheim数据，2021年二手车售价增幅超越新车(图3)。此外，5月其他交通相关的价格涨幅进一步扩大，交通服务价格增幅从4月的5.6%扩大至11.2%，增幅翻倍。\n\n房租价格走势对未来通胀的演绎有重要影响。美国CPI中房租的权重较高(约30%)，尽管相对于其它分项，房租的增速相对温和(今年5月同比增2.2%)，但年初以来增速斜率陡峭化(图4)，我们预计受到供给短缺的影响，未来房租将会持续温和地上升。\n\n通胀预期走势如何?\n从消费者的角度，密西根预期通胀率数据显示，2021年5月美国消费者5年通胀预期从上月的2.7%跳升至3.0%(图5)，但是仍然低于美联储可以容忍的3.5%。\n从政策制定者角度，如我们此前报告所述，美联储注重通胀预期的监测，关键指标为共同通胀预期指数(CIE)，CIE为季度数据，预计2021年二季度的数据将于本月底公布。\n\n未来通胀将会怎样影响资产价格?\n我们复盘了上述四次大通胀中，CPI破4%后不同时间区间内美元、美股和美债收益率的变化(表2)：通胀对于美元、美股存在负面影响，前者较为滞后，后者1个月内即有体现。有趣的是，通胀对于美债收益率的影响不具规律性，关于美债的研究框架，请参考我们此前的报告。\n\n风险提示：美联储过快收紧货币政策，地缘政治风险加剧\n\n恭喜您找到了字母E，参与《老虎大搜查》活动，下帖留言“ Tiger is here” 即可获赠100虎币，如集齐7张图片并留言，还可获赠7周年限定礼盒。（详情请点击【七周年有奖活动】老虎大搜查 了解）","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{".DJI":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2889,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":181409928,"gmtCreate":1623404660764,"gmtModify":1704202690616,"author":{"id":"3494282548206344","authorId":"3494282548206344","name":"李菲特","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/400c37df7718cdcde0948e6e9b83f30c","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3494282548206344","idStr":"3494282548206344"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Tiger is here","listText":"Tiger is here","text":"Tiger is here","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/181409928","repostId":"110267641","repostType":1,"repost":{"id":110267641,"gmtCreate":1622461531680,"gmtModify":1704184732139,"author":{"id":"3539180379992057","authorId":"3539180379992057","name":"骚话连篇","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3539180379992057","idStr":"3539180379992057"},"themes":[],"title":"三孩生育政策爆笑段子汇总","htmlText":"今天下午各個微信羣達成了空前絕後的話題統一，無論是遊戲羣媒體羣炒股羣還是同學羣水友羣全在聊三娃，思路非常廣泛，當然，比思路更廣泛的是表情包，潛水一下午收購不少，逗您一樂就點個讚唄。 這個消息發佈後羣全都炸了 居然是一套組合拳 先滿上（指倉位 最大輸家杜蕾斯 6胎政策警告 綠化政策配三胎政策 看的更長遠 靈魂的疑問 順口溜都出來了 對王之王 年輕人的想法就是特別賦能 不想當生產隊的驢 可以當生產隊的豬 大家聊的都挺開心的啊 劇本都不敢這麼編 答辯生最慘 有的人已經提前完成任務了 人大點贊 請看下圖 請看上圖 請看歷史上的三胎 買房參考 房子不夠不要緊 車座不夠不要緊 深謀遠慮 三胎概念要從娃娃抓起 一步到位吧 恭喜您找到了TRADE，參與《老虎大搜查》活動，下帖留言“ Tiger is here” 即可獲贈100虎幣，如集齊7張圖片並留言，還可獲贈7週年限定禮盒。（詳情請點擊<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/TW/181890541\" target=\"_blank\">【七週年有獎活動】老虎大搜查</a> 瞭解）","listText":"今天下午各個微信羣達成了空前絕後的話題統一，無論是遊戲羣媒體羣炒股羣還是同學羣水友羣全在聊三娃，思路非常廣泛，當然，比思路更廣泛的是表情包，潛水一下午收購不少，逗您一樂就點個讚唄。 這個消息發佈後羣全都炸了 居然是一套組合拳 先滿上（指倉位 最大輸家杜蕾斯 6胎政策警告 綠化政策配三胎政策 看的更長遠 靈魂的疑問 順口溜都出來了 對王之王 年輕人的想法就是特別賦能 不想當生產隊的驢 可以當生產隊的豬 大家聊的都挺開心的啊 劇本都不敢這麼編 答辯生最慘 有的人已經提前完成任務了 人大點贊 請看下圖 請看上圖 請看歷史上的三胎 買房參考 房子不夠不要緊 車座不夠不要緊 深謀遠慮 三胎概念要從娃娃抓起 一步到位吧 恭喜您找到了TRADE，參與《老虎大搜查》活動，下帖留言“ Tiger is here” 即可獲贈100虎幣，如集齊7張圖片並留言，還可獲贈7週年限定禮盒。（詳情請點擊<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/TW/181890541\" target=\"_blank\">【七週年有獎活動】老虎大搜查</a> 瞭解）","text":"今天下午各個微信羣達成了空前絕後的話題統一，無論是遊戲羣媒體羣炒股羣還是同學羣水友羣全在聊三娃，思路非常廣泛，當然，比思路更廣泛的是表情包，潛水一下午收購不少，逗您一樂就點個讚唄。 這個消息發佈後羣全都炸了 居然是一套組合拳 先滿上（指倉位 最大輸家杜蕾斯 6胎政策警告 綠化政策配三胎政策 看的更長遠 靈魂的疑問 順口溜都出來了 對王之王 年輕人的想法就是特別賦能 不想當生產隊的驢 可以當生產隊的豬 大家聊的都挺開心的啊 劇本都不敢這麼編 答辯生最慘 有的人已經提前完成任務了 人大點贊 請看下圖 請看上圖 請看歷史上的三胎 買房參考 房子不夠不要緊 車座不夠不要緊 深謀遠慮 三胎概念要從娃娃抓起 一步到位吧 恭喜您找到了TRADE，參與《老虎大搜查》活動，下帖留言“ Tiger is here” 即可獲贈100虎幣，如集齊7張圖片並留言，還可獲贈7週年限定禮盒。（詳情請點擊【七週年有獎活動】老虎大搜查 瞭解）","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/12c29d23ac709607d32424e7bc1bb84b","width":"936","height":"755"},{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c0000e466c06eeada1808a8b608b34b2","width":"1080","height":"310"},{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/dd51b3bb89aeb118e8505eae89a9b722","width":"705","height":"870"}],"top":1,"highlighted":2,"essential":2,"paper":2,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/110267641","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":0,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":28,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2489,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":181400724,"gmtCreate":1623404646268,"gmtModify":1704202691098,"author":{"id":"3494282548206344","authorId":"3494282548206344","name":"李菲特","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/400c37df7718cdcde0948e6e9b83f30c","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3494282548206344","idStr":"3494282548206344"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Tiger is here","listText":"Tiger is here","text":"Tiger is here","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/181400724","repostId":"181805892","repostType":1,"repost":{"id":181805892,"gmtCreate":1623382395716,"gmtModify":1704202152243,"author":{"id":"3451627561239325","authorId":"3451627561239325","name":"漫投资","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/84032dec87e05e119903d285a35661a1","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3451627561239325","idStr":"3451627561239325"},"themes":[],"title":"意不意外？开不开心？","htmlText":"&nbsp; &nbsp; 全球投資者都在關注美國5月CPI數據終於公佈了，5月CPI同比5%（預期4.7%），核心CPI同比3.8%（預期3.5%），隨時是2008年之後最高，但是預期本身就很高啊，高就對了，最終數據也沒有超預期太多。而且看來市場是認同通脹是暫時的，隨着經濟的逐步恢復，通脹就會降下啦。那還遲疑啥，衝新高吧，咱們得讓睡王在歐洲各國首腦面前蹦有面子不是。標普新高了，納指也在衝新高的路上。就是這麼Happy，好好享受這波行情吧。 週四還公佈了首次申請救濟人數37.6萬人，續請失業救濟人數349.9萬，都在持續下降。這兩天看報道說是美國主動離職率不降反升，人們由於疫情的原因或是子女的原因，傾向於比較自由的工作方式，part time 或者freelance，又是利好upwork這類平臺。 說到找工作，Boss直聘今天IPO，發行價17-19，市值得有80億，是真tm的高啊，但我還是打新了，Boss走到上市不容易，趙鵬最早做的是看準網，一直起不來，14年做了boss直聘，那幾年感覺做招聘的互聯網創業公司真的很多，14-18年，中國創投圈最熱的幾年，錢多，創業的人更多，公司多了，對應的招聘需求爆發時增長，傳統的智聯招聘、前程無憂和51job，都不能滿足互聯網圈的招聘需求，當時新出來的招聘公司有拉鉤，內推，100offer，獵聘，boss直聘幾十家，都要趁着創業浪潮，想幹翻傳統招聘公司三座大山。現在三座大山退市的退市，被收購的被收購，創業公司活下來的也沒幾家。 Boss直聘最後能跑出來就不錯了，MAU能到3千萬，這是什麼概念，一個頻次這麼低的APP用戶量能這麼大，就和電商戰爭已經結束時，拼多多卻靠發展五環用戶一個套路啊。就喜歡這種行業攪局者，支持他們，**老大哥！ Netflix發佈Netflix.shop，開始賣劇的周邊了，限量版，大IP，設計師聯名，妥妥的粉絲經濟。","listText":"&nbsp; &nbsp; 全球投資者都在關注美國5月CPI數據終於公佈了，5月CPI同比5%（預期4.7%），核心CPI同比3.8%（預期3.5%），隨時是2008年之後最高，但是預期本身就很高啊，高就對了，最終數據也沒有超預期太多。而且看來市場是認同通脹是暫時的，隨着經濟的逐步恢復，通脹就會降下啦。那還遲疑啥，衝新高吧，咱們得讓睡王在歐洲各國首腦面前蹦有面子不是。標普新高了，納指也在衝新高的路上。就是這麼Happy，好好享受這波行情吧。 週四還公佈了首次申請救濟人數37.6萬人，續請失業救濟人數349.9萬，都在持續下降。這兩天看報道說是美國主動離職率不降反升，人們由於疫情的原因或是子女的原因，傾向於比較自由的工作方式，part time 或者freelance，又是利好upwork這類平臺。 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Netflix發佈Netflix.shop，開始賣劇的周邊了，限量版，大IP，設計師聯名，妥妥的粉絲經濟。","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b885e850167e51210d6b7b26c9003c85","width":"1315","height":"680"}],"top":1,"highlighted":2,"essential":2,"paper":2,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/181805892","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":0,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":3,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2554,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":181400433,"gmtCreate":1623404632422,"gmtModify":1704202690292,"author":{"id":"3494282548206344","authorId":"3494282548206344","name":"李菲特","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/400c37df7718cdcde0948e6e9b83f30c","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3494282548206344","idStr":"3494282548206344"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Tiger is here","listText":"Tiger is here","text":"Tiger is here","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/181400433","repostId":"180565197","repostType":1,"repost":{"id":180565197,"gmtCreate":1623213155015,"gmtModify":1704198497525,"author":{"id":"3514329116425907","authorId":"3514329116425907","name":"小虎AV","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/91101bd3142b32495c3131036d5f8afa","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3514329116425907","idStr":"3514329116425907"},"themes":[],"title":"【直播预告】看老虎7周年直播，赢全球限量大礼包！","htmlText":"端午節將至，A醬提前預祝各位虎友們端午節快樂又安康！今天，A醬還將告訴大家一個好消息~ 自2014年成立以來，老虎已經陪伴虎友一起走過了7年時光，爲了回饋大家的支持與信賴，也爲了讓我們與虎友們彼此有更多的瞭解與溝通；6月12日，我們將在北京舉辦Open&nbsp;Day&nbsp;見面會，屆時社區將爲無法來到現場相聚的虎友們同步進行線上直播! 同時，我們也將在直播間進行抽獎活動： 【抽獎環節】：本次Open&nbsp;Day直播共有四輪抽獎環節，主持人會在15：00、16：00、17：00、17：40四個時間節點在直播間進行提問，參與搶答問題的虎友將有機會贏得老虎全球限量大禮包！ 【抽獎地址】老虎直播間：<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/RN?name=RNLive&amp;rndata={&quot;liveId&quot;:&quot;16226253307800&quot;}\" target=\"_blank\">老虎七週年：在全球與你不期而遇</a> 【抽獎時間】6月12日15：00、16：00、17：00、17：40； 【活動獎品】：老虎7週年全球限量大禮包 【抽獎規則】：每輪抽獎主持人提問或發出口令後，虎友們需要第一時間在直播間評論區敲出答案獲對應口令，工作人員將隨機截取3位回答正確的幸運觀衆，送出老虎7週年全球限量大禮包哦~ 【獎品發放】中獎名單將當場公佈，屆時中獎的虎友請主動添加<a target=\"_blank\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/U/20722186463466\">@愛發紅包的虎妞</a> 微信領取獎品，微信號是tigerbrokers。 Open&nbsp;Day直播將於北京時間6月12日下午14：00正式開始，虎友可以通過以下幾種方式觀看直播 觀看方式1：預約直播入口：&nbsp;","listText":"端午節將至，A醬提前預祝各位虎友們端午節快樂又安康！今天，A醬還將告訴大家一個好消息~ 自2014年成立以來，老虎已經陪伴虎友一起走過了7年時光，爲了回饋大家的支持與信賴，也爲了讓我們與虎友們彼此有更多的瞭解與溝通；6月12日，我們將在北京舉辦Open&nbsp;Day&nbsp;見面會，屆時社區將爲無法來到現場相聚的虎友們同步進行線上直播! 同時，我們也將在直播間進行抽獎活動： 【抽獎環節】：本次Open&nbsp;Day直播共有四輪抽獎環節，主持人會在15：00、16：00、17：00、17：40四個時間節點在直播間進行提問，參與搶答問題的虎友將有機會贏得老虎全球限量大禮包！ 【抽獎地址】老虎直播間：<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/RN?name=RNLive&amp;rndata={&quot;liveId&quot;:&quot;16226253307800&quot;}\" target=\"_blank\">老虎七週年：在全球與你不期而遇</a> 【抽獎時間】6月12日15：00、16：00、17：00、17：40； 【活動獎品】：老虎7週年全球限量大禮包 【抽獎規則】：每輪抽獎主持人提問或發出口令後，虎友們需要第一時間在直播間評論區敲出答案獲對應口令，工作人員將隨機截取3位回答正確的幸運觀衆，送出老虎7週年全球限量大禮包哦~ 【獎品發放】中獎名單將當場公佈，屆時中獎的虎友請主動添加<a target=\"_blank\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/U/20722186463466\">@愛發紅包的虎妞</a> 微信領取獎品，微信號是tigerbrokers。 Open&nbsp;Day直播將於北京時間6月12日下午14：00正式開始，虎友可以通過以下幾種方式觀看直播 觀看方式1：預約直播入口：&nbsp;","text":"端午節將至，A醬提前預祝各位虎友們端午節快樂又安康！今天，A醬還將告訴大家一個好消息~ 自2014年成立以來，老虎已經陪伴虎友一起走過了7年時光，爲了回饋大家的支持與信賴，也爲了讓我們與虎友們彼此有更多的瞭解與溝通；6月12日，我們將在北京舉辦Open Day 見面會，屆時社區將爲無法來到現場相聚的虎友們同步進行線上直播! 同時，我們也將在直播間進行抽獎活動： 【抽獎環節】：本次Open Day直播共有四輪抽獎環節，主持人會在15：00、16：00、17：00、17：40四個時間節點在直播間進行提問，參與搶答問題的虎友將有機會贏得老虎全球限量大禮包！ 【抽獎地址】老虎直播間：老虎七週年：在全球與你不期而遇 【抽獎時間】6月12日15：00、16：00、17：00、17：40； 【活動獎品】：老虎7週年全球限量大禮包 【抽獎規則】：每輪抽獎主持人提問或發出口令後，虎友們需要第一時間在直播間評論區敲出答案獲對應口令，工作人員將隨機截取3位回答正確的幸運觀衆，送出老虎7週年全球限量大禮包哦~ 【獎品發放】中獎名單將當場公佈，屆時中獎的虎友請主動添加@愛發紅包的虎妞 微信領取獎品，微信號是tigerbrokers。 Open Day直播將於北京時間6月12日下午14：00正式開始，虎友可以通過以下幾種方式觀看直播 觀看方式1：預約直播入口：","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/79fc836f70c1b20a51b0e51e5c7468ba","width":"340","height":"340"},{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b6c5a0f4692227c31def72bb08e3f3c0","width":"751","height":"422"},{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7c6d4bfeef80b0a7daa0346a11662f0c","width":"553","height":"737"}],"top":1,"highlighted":2,"essential":2,"paper":2,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/180565197","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":0,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":4,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":3333,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":181400686,"gmtCreate":1623404621545,"gmtModify":1704202690131,"author":{"id":"3494282548206344","authorId":"3494282548206344","name":"李菲特","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/400c37df7718cdcde0948e6e9b83f30c","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3494282548206344","idStr":"3494282548206344"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Tiger is here","listText":"Tiger is here","text":"Tiger is here","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/181400686","repostId":"183695030","repostType":1,"repost":{"id":183695030,"gmtCreate":1623326880616,"gmtModify":1704200932765,"author":{"id":"3510558082622800","authorId":"3510558082622800","name":"胖虎哒哒","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/75b95d9326c02813b7b87ba8c1eccb5a","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3510558082622800","idStr":"3510558082622800"},"themes":[],"title":"数字外包商TaskUs上市，内容审核是门好生意吗？","htmlText":"審覈對於大家來說應該都不陌生，不論海內外但凡具備一定社交屬性的平臺都有審覈的需求，那麼內容審覈有多掙錢？審覈外包是門好生意嗎？一起來看下垂類審覈第一股<a target=\"_blank\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TASK\">$TaskUs Inc.(TASK)$</a> 的招股書都透露了哪些信息？ 招股信息： 股票代碼：<a target=\"_blank\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TASK\">$TaskUs Inc.(TASK)$</a> 上市時間：6月12日 發行規模：1320萬股 發行價格：22-24美元 估值：23億美元 募資規模：3.04億美元 募資用途：用於一般公司用途，其中可能包括但不限於未來的收購。 主承銷商：高盛、摩根大通 機構持倉：雖然招股書上寫task的大股東是公司供應商，但是實控人其實是黑石集團，前持股比例67.2%。 業務：客服+審覈+打標籤=大科技公司的貼心助手 Task是一家數字外包商，專注於爲高增長的技術公司提供外包服務，公司的全球全渠道交付模式專注於爲客戶提供三項關鍵服務——數字客戶體驗、內容安全和人工智能運營。 Task號稱是該行業中唯一一家年收入超過 2.5 億美元且有機增長 100% 的公司，這導致運營和文化的一致性，爲未來的有機或無機潛在增長奠定了堅實的基礎。這一戰略幫助 TaskUs 在 2017 年至 2020 年期間實現了 60% 的複合年增長率。 我的好奇點是，他們是如何做到的？ 根據招股書，TaskUs平臺是圍繞以下三種服務產品專門構建和組織的: 數字客戶體驗:主要包括全渠道客戶關懷服務，主要通過數字(非語音)渠道提供。其他解決方案包括新產品或市場發佈的客戶關懷服務，信任和安全解決方案和客戶獲取解決方案。 內容安全:主要包括審查和處置用戶和廣告商產生的內容，其中包括","listText":"審覈對於大家來說應該都不陌生，不論海內外但凡具備一定社交屬性的平臺都有審覈的需求，那麼內容審覈有多掙錢？審覈外包是門好生意嗎？一起來看下垂類審覈第一股<a target=\"_blank\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TASK\">$TaskUs Inc.(TASK)$</a> 的招股書都透露了哪些信息？ 招股信息： 股票代碼：<a target=\"_blank\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TASK\">$TaskUs Inc.(TASK)$</a> 上市時間：6月12日 發行規模：1320萬股 發行價格：22-24美元 估值：23億美元 募資規模：3.04億美元 募資用途：用於一般公司用途，其中可能包括但不限於未來的收購。 主承銷商：高盛、摩根大通 機構持倉：雖然招股書上寫task的大股東是公司供應商，但是實控人其實是黑石集團，前持股比例67.2%。 業務：客服+審覈+打標籤=大科技公司的貼心助手 Task是一家數字外包商，專注於爲高增長的技術公司提供外包服務，公司的全球全渠道交付模式專注於爲客戶提供三項關鍵服務——數字客戶體驗、內容安全和人工智能運營。 Task號稱是該行業中唯一一家年收入超過 2.5 億美元且有機增長 100% 的公司，這導致運營和文化的一致性，爲未來的有機或無機潛在增長奠定了堅實的基礎。這一戰略幫助 TaskUs 在 2017 年至 2020 年期間實現了 60% 的複合年增長率。 我的好奇點是，他們是如何做到的？ 根據招股書，TaskUs平臺是圍繞以下三種服務產品專門構建和組織的: 數字客戶體驗:主要包括全渠道客戶關懷服務，主要通過數字(非語音)渠道提供。其他解決方案包括新產品或市場發佈的客戶關懷服務，信任和安全解決方案和客戶獲取解決方案。 內容安全:主要包括審查和處置用戶和廣告商產生的內容，其中包括","text":"審覈對於大家來說應該都不陌生，不論海內外但凡具備一定社交屬性的平臺都有審覈的需求，那麼內容審覈有多掙錢？審覈外包是門好生意嗎？一起來看下垂類審覈第一股$TaskUs Inc.(TASK)$ 的招股書都透露了哪些信息？ 招股信息： 股票代碼：$TaskUs Inc.(TASK)$ 上市時間：6月12日 發行規模：1320萬股 發行價格：22-24美元 估值：23億美元 募資規模：3.04億美元 募資用途：用於一般公司用途，其中可能包括但不限於未來的收購。 主承銷商：高盛、摩根大通 機構持倉：雖然招股書上寫task的大股東是公司供應商，但是實控人其實是黑石集團，前持股比例67.2%。 業務：客服+審覈+打標籤=大科技公司的貼心助手 Task是一家數字外包商，專注於爲高增長的技術公司提供外包服務，公司的全球全渠道交付模式專注於爲客戶提供三項關鍵服務——數字客戶體驗、內容安全和人工智能運營。 Task號稱是該行業中唯一一家年收入超過 2.5 億美元且有機增長 100% 的公司，這導致運營和文化的一致性，爲未來的有機或無機潛在增長奠定了堅實的基礎。這一戰略幫助 TaskUs 在 2017 年至 2020 年期間實現了 60% 的複合年增長率。 我的好奇點是，他們是如何做到的？ 根據招股書，TaskUs平臺是圍繞以下三種服務產品專門構建和組織的: 數字客戶體驗:主要包括全渠道客戶關懷服務，主要通過數字(非語音)渠道提供。其他解決方案包括新產品或市場發佈的客戶關懷服務，信任和安全解決方案和客戶獲取解決方案。 內容安全:主要包括審查和處置用戶和廣告商產生的內容，其中包括","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/73d3c70a45208e1f747edd2df6f3b063","width":"1197","height":"331"},{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c6b8e35bf9b35a4d9581832ab1aac944","width":"1532","height":"622"},{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/09e62f1a0cdd801336422d9c75063fb5","width":"1039","height":"489"}],"top":1,"highlighted":2,"essential":2,"paper":2,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/183695030","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":0,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":8,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2298,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":181400158,"gmtCreate":1623404601074,"gmtModify":1704202689970,"author":{"id":"3494282548206344","authorId":"3494282548206344","name":"李菲特","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/400c37df7718cdcde0948e6e9b83f30c","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3494282548206344","idStr":"3494282548206344"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Tiger is here","listText":"Tiger is here","text":"Tiger is here","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/181400158","repostId":"180747508","repostType":1,"repost":{"id":180747508,"gmtCreate":1623229412300,"gmtModify":1704198820906,"author":{"id":"3480300888703096","authorId":"3480300888703096","name":"荒野侦探","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/676ca151c5979a45c1864347e2da198a","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3480300888703096","idStr":"3480300888703096"},"themes":[],"title":"【财富密码】WSB新宠：CLOV，WISH，WEN，SOFI","htmlText":"最早是<a target=\"_blank\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/GME\">$遊戲驛站(GME)$</a> ，<a target=\"_blank\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AMC\">$AMC院線(AMC)$</a> ，<a target=\"_blank\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BB\">$黑莓(BB)$</a> ， 之後是<a target=\"_blank\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/KOSS\">$高斯電子(KOSS)$</a> ，<a target=\"_blank\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/SNDL\">$Sundial Growers Inc.(SNDL)$</a> ，<a target=\"_blank\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/EXPR\">$Express(EXPR)$</a> 、<a target=\"_blank\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BBBY\">$3B家居(BBBY)$</a> ，<a target=\"_blank\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NAKD\">$Naked Brand Group Inc(NAKD)$</a> ， 最新是<a target=\"_blank\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/CLOV\">$Clover Health Corp(CLOV)$</a> （昨天漲85.8%），<a target=\"_blank\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/WISH\">$ContextLogic Inc.(WISH)$</a> （昨天漲49.9%盤後繼續飆升），","listText":"最早是<a target=\"_blank\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/GME\">$遊戲驛站(GME)$</a> ，<a target=\"_blank\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AMC\">$AMC院線(AMC)$</a> ，<a target=\"_blank\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BB\">$黑莓(BB)$</a> ， 之後是<a target=\"_blank\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/KOSS\">$高斯電子(KOSS)$</a> ，<a target=\"_blank\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/SNDL\">$Sundial Growers Inc.(SNDL)$</a> ，<a target=\"_blank\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/EXPR\">$Express(EXPR)$</a> 、<a target=\"_blank\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BBBY\">$3B家居(BBBY)$</a> ，<a target=\"_blank\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NAKD\">$Naked Brand Group Inc(NAKD)$</a> ， 最新是<a target=\"_blank\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/CLOV\">$Clover Health Corp(CLOV)$</a> （昨天漲85.8%），<a target=\"_blank\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/WISH\">$ContextLogic Inc.(WISH)$</a> （昨天漲49.9%盤後繼續飆升），","text":"最早是$遊戲驛站(GME)$ ，$AMC院線(AMC)$ ，$黑莓(BB)$ ， 之後是$高斯電子(KOSS)$ ，$Sundial Growers Inc.(SNDL)$ ，$Express(EXPR)$ 、$3B家居(BBBY)$ ，$Naked Brand Group Inc(NAKD)$ ， 最新是$Clover Health Corp(CLOV)$ （昨天漲85.8%），$ContextLogic Inc.(WISH)$ （昨天漲49.9%盤後繼續飆升），","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0eed97d8142aedbd32ebfa1d62eef481","width":"214","height":"286"},{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/edd7cd1d8a76129decfa04a788dc1751","width":"1812","height":"681"},{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/888266736d30be99dcde9500be3b6c72","width":"1281","height":"721"}],"top":1,"highlighted":2,"essential":2,"paper":2,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/180747508","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":0,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":6,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2791,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":181577809,"gmtCreate":1623404531301,"gmtModify":1704202688515,"author":{"id":"3494282548206344","authorId":"3494282548206344","name":"李菲特","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/400c37df7718cdcde0948e6e9b83f30c","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3494282548206344","idStr":"3494282548206344"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Tiger is here","listText":"Tiger is here","text":"Tiger is here","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/181577809","repostId":"1140839418","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"1140839418","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1623382205,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1140839418?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2021-06-11 11:30","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"One picture to understand Didi's prospectus: spread across 15 countries, with an average daily order volume of 41 million","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1140839418","media":"腾讯科技","summary":"6月11日消息，美国当地时间周四，$滴滴出行 $的运营主体小桔快智向美国证券交易委员会提交了IPO招股书，计划在纳斯达克股票市场或纽约证券交易所挂牌上市，股票代码为“DIDI”。根据滴滴披露的数据显示，目前滴滴已经在15个国家的4000多个城市和地区开通业务，年活跃用户数量4.93亿，年活跃司机数量1500万，日均单量4100万，年平台交易总额3410亿元，2018年至2021年Q1累计司机收入6000+亿元。","content":"<p>June 11th news, Thursday local time in the United States,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/DIDI\">Didi Chuxing</a>Xiaoju Kuaizhi, the operating entity, submitted an IPO prospectus to the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC), and plans to be listed on the Nasdaq stock market or the New York Stock Exchange with the stock code \"DIDI\".</p><p>According to the data disclosed by Didi, at present, Didi has opened business in more than 4,000 cities and regions in 15 countries, with an annual number of active users of 493 million, an annual number of active drivers of 15 million, an average daily order volume of 41 million, a total annual platform transaction volume of 341 billion yuan, and a cumulative driver income of 600+ billion yuan from 2018 to Q1 of 2021.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2a935c6b681f2f3744604b5596e29cac\" tg-width=\"2100\" tg-height=\"13686\"></p><p><hr>Congratulations on finding the letter I and participating in the \"Tiger Search\" activity. If you leave a message \"Tiger is here\" in the next post, you can get 100 Tiger coins. If you collect 7 pictures and leave a message, you can also get a 7th anniversary limited gift box. (For details, please click<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/TW/181890541\" target=\"_blank\">[7th Anniversary Award-winning Activity] Tiger Search</a>Understanding)<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ba72fe98df37f49a4d31b0a0684a03aa\" tg-width=\"214\" tg-height=\"286\"></p>","source":"txkj","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>One picture to understand Didi's prospectus: spread across 15 countries, with an average daily order volume of 41 million</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nOne picture to understand Didi's prospectus: spread across 15 countries, with an average daily order volume of 41 million\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">腾讯科技</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-06-11 11:30</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>June 11th news, Thursday local time in the United States,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/DIDI\">Didi Chuxing</a>Xiaoju Kuaizhi, the operating entity, submitted an IPO prospectus to the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC), and plans to be listed on the Nasdaq stock market or the New York Stock Exchange with the stock code \"DIDI\".</p><p>According to the data disclosed by Didi, at present, Didi has opened business in more than 4,000 cities and regions in 15 countries, with an annual number of active users of 493 million, an annual number of active drivers of 15 million, an average daily order volume of 41 million, a total annual platform transaction volume of 341 billion yuan, and a cumulative driver income of 600+ billion yuan from 2018 to Q1 of 2021.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2a935c6b681f2f3744604b5596e29cac\" tg-width=\"2100\" tg-height=\"13686\"></p><p><hr>Congratulations on finding the letter I and participating in the \"Tiger Search\" activity. If you leave a message \"Tiger is here\" in the next post, you can get 100 Tiger coins. If you collect 7 pictures and leave a message, you can also get a 7th anniversary limited gift box. (For details, please click<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/TW/181890541\" target=\"_blank\">[7th Anniversary Award-winning Activity] Tiger Search</a>Understanding)<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ba72fe98df37f49a4d31b0a0684a03aa\" tg-width=\"214\" tg-height=\"286\"></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> source：<a href=\"https://new.qq.com/rain/a/20210611A02NC800\">腾讯科技</a></p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b9f14473f3e986de32cc80f6fd80b679","relate_stocks":{"DIDI":"滴滴(已退市)"},"source_url":"https://new.qq.com/rain/a/20210611A02NC800","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1140839418","content_text":"6月11日消息，美国当地时间周四，滴滴出行的运营主体小桔快智向美国证券交易委员会（SEC）提交了IPO招股书，计划在纳斯达克股票市场或纽约证券交易所挂牌上市，股票代码为“DIDI”。\n根据滴滴披露的数据显示，目前滴滴已经在15个国家的4000多个城市和地区开通业务，年活跃用户数量4.93亿，年活跃司机数量1500万，日均单量4100万，年平台交易总额3410亿元，2018年至2021年Q1累计司机收入6000+亿元。\n\n\n恭喜您找到了字母I，参与《老虎大搜查》活动，下帖留言“ Tiger is here” 即可获赠100虎币，如集齐7张图片并留言，还可获赠7周年限定礼盒。（详情请点击【七周年有奖活动】老虎大搜查 了解）","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"DIDI":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2340,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":181577019,"gmtCreate":1623404503931,"gmtModify":1704202687871,"author":{"id":"3494282548206344","authorId":"3494282548206344","name":"李菲特","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/400c37df7718cdcde0948e6e9b83f30c","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3494282548206344","idStr":"3494282548206344"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Tiger is here","listText":"Tiger is here","text":"Tiger is here","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/181577019","repostId":"1156453091","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"1156453091","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1623333482,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1156453091?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2021-06-10 21:58","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"Taking history as a mirror, the deduction and impact of inflation soaring in the United States","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1156453091","media":"川阅全球宏观","summary":"美国东部时间2021年6月10日，美国劳工部发布5月通胀数据。美国5月CPI同比升5.0%、核心CPI同比升3.8%，创2008年8月以来最大增幅。今年年初以来，美国通胀率加速上升，美联储6月议息会议在即，市场上通胀担忧挥之不去。我们回顾了历史上美国通胀的几次飙升，以便更好地理解本次的通胀及其影响：。1960年以来美国CPI同比破5%出现了4次(图1)。本次通胀飙升的主要原因在于疫情下的基数效应和供给短缺。房租价格走势对未来通胀的演绎有重要影响。","content":"<p>On June 10, 2021 EDT, the U.S. Department of Labor released inflation data for May.<b>In May, the CPI of the United States rose by 5.0% year-on-year, and the core CPI rose by 3.8% year-on-year, the largest increase since August 2008. Since the beginning of this year, the inflation rate in the United States has accelerated, and the Federal Reserve's interest rate meeting in June is imminent. Inflation worries in the market linger.</b>We have reviewed several spikes in U.S. inflation throughout history to better understand this one and its impact:</p><p><b>Since 1960, the U.S. CPI has broken 5% year-on-year four times</b>(FIG. 1). We conducted a review of the economic fundamentals and Fed policy from the period when CPI broke 4%, broke 5% and retreated (Table 1).</p><p><b>1968/06-1971/09</b>: The economy is in recession, but the residual warmth of large government spending and fiscal stimulus in the early period is still there, and inflation continues to rise. The Federal Reserve tightened monetary policy in 1970 to curb inflation.</p><p><b>1973/03-1982/11：</b>Under the double blow of the food crisis and the oil crisis, the US economy fell into stagflation, and supply shocks and costs pushed up inflation. Government price controls failed and monetary policy lacked independence and was too lagging to successfully curb inflation.</p><p><b>1987/08-1991/07：</b>After emerging from stagflation, the U.S. economy experienced high growth, but began to slow down in 1987, and there was upward pressure on wages and prices, and the Federal Reserve tightened monetary policy.</p><p><b>2007/11-2008/09：</b>The soaring oil price pushed up inflation, and the financial crisis broke out. The first task of the Federal Reserve's monetary policy was to bail out the market, and inflation was not in its focus.</p><p><b>The causes of current inflation are similar to those of 1973-1982 inflation, both of which are cost-driven.</b></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/327f6f12c3af30abee8fa0ae334f9763\" tg-width=\"1006\" tg-height=\"611\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0ca353ebcbaf95ba1da0b46a815d5f8b\" tg-width=\"1025\" tg-height=\"853\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><b>The main reason for this surge in inflation lies in the base effect and supply shortage under the pandemic.</b>The US CPI recorded 5.0% in May this year (the highest level since August 2008), but<b>From the perspective of CPI index, the compound growth rate in May 2021 relative to May 2019 was only 2.5%.</b></p><p><b>For this year's deduction of inflation, we focus on the two sub-items of used cars and rent.</b></p><p><b>One of the main thrust forces for inflation is used cars.</b>Under the deterioration of the epidemic situation in Southeast Asia, many chip factories shut down, and the shortage of chips led to the reduction of production by car companies. The supply of new cars is insufficient, the demand for used cars has soared, and prices have skyrocketed (Figure 2). According to Manheim data, used vehicle sales prices increased more than new vehicles in 2021 (Figure 3). In addition, other transportation-related price increases widened further in May, with the increase in transportation service prices expanding to 11.2% from 5.6% in April, doubling the increase.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/884ed39a8682a3df05e8411f17f2105c\" tg-width=\"995\" tg-height=\"585\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/599b70f4fadb590d0d7b20254d4b1403\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"738\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><b>The trend of rent prices has an important impact on the deduction of future inflation.</b>The weight of rent in the US CPI is high (about 30%). Although the growth rate of rent is relatively modest compared with other sub-items (2.2% year-on-year in May this year), the growth rate slope has steepened since the beginning of the year (Figure 4).<b>It is expected that rent will continue to rise moderately in the future, affected by supply shortages</b>。</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/869c4f313152d3a14769097f150fb674\" tg-width=\"1021\" tg-height=\"644\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><b>What is the trend of inflation expectations?</b></p><p>From a consumer perspective, Michigan's expected inflation data shows that 2<b>In May 2021, the five-year inflation expectation of U.S. consumers jumped to 3.0% from 2.7% last month (Figure 5), but it is still lower than the 3.5% that the Federal Reserve can tolerate.</b></p><p>From the perspective of policymakers, as stated in our previous report, the Fed focuses on the monitoring of inflation expectations, and the key indicators are<b>Common Inflation Expectations Index (CIE), CIE is quarterly data, and data for the second quarter of 2021 is expected to be released by the end of this month.</b></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/21708bec0c792eb9299eda62ba3cd077\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"666\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><b>How will future inflation affect asset prices?</b></p><p>We review the changes of the yields of US dollars, US stocks and US bonds in different time intervals after CPI broke 4% in the above four major inflations (Table 2):<b>Inflation has a negative impact on the US dollar and US stocks. The former lags behind, while the latter is reflected within one month.</b>Interestingly, the impact of inflation on US debt yields is irregular. For the research framework of US debt, please refer to our previous report.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/037d9e565ff952b13c942386e8d08506\" tg-width=\"1059\" tg-height=\"599\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><b>Risk warning:</b>Geopolitical risks mount as Fed tightens monetary policy too quickly</p><p><hr>Congratulations on finding the letter E and participating in the \"Tiger Search\" activity. If you leave a message \"Tiger is here\" in the next post, you can get 100 Tiger coins. If you collect 7 pictures and leave a message, you can also get a 7th anniversary limited gift box. (For details, please click<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/TW/181890541\" target=\"_blank\">[7th Anniversary Award-winning Activity] Tiger Search</a>Understanding)</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b519142d901e1ef1ff2a2e443798687b\" tg-width=\"214\" tg-height=\"286\"></p>","source":"lsy1582083733592","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Taking history as a mirror, the deduction and impact of inflation soaring in the United States</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nTaking history as a mirror, the deduction and impact of inflation soaring in the United States\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">川阅全球宏观</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-06-10 21:58</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>On June 10, 2021 EDT, the U.S. Department of Labor released inflation data for May.<b>In May, the CPI of the United States rose by 5.0% year-on-year, and the core CPI rose by 3.8% year-on-year, the largest increase since August 2008. Since the beginning of this year, the inflation rate in the United States has accelerated, and the Federal Reserve's interest rate meeting in June is imminent. Inflation worries in the market linger.</b>We have reviewed several spikes in U.S. inflation throughout history to better understand this one and its impact:</p><p><b>Since 1960, the U.S. CPI has broken 5% year-on-year four times</b>(FIG. 1). We conducted a review of the economic fundamentals and Fed policy from the period when CPI broke 4%, broke 5% and retreated (Table 1).</p><p><b>1968/06-1971/09</b>: The economy is in recession, but the residual warmth of large government spending and fiscal stimulus in the early period is still there, and inflation continues to rise. The Federal Reserve tightened monetary policy in 1970 to curb inflation.</p><p><b>1973/03-1982/11：</b>Under the double blow of the food crisis and the oil crisis, the US economy fell into stagflation, and supply shocks and costs pushed up inflation. Government price controls failed and monetary policy lacked independence and was too lagging to successfully curb inflation.</p><p><b>1987/08-1991/07：</b>After emerging from stagflation, the U.S. economy experienced high growth, but began to slow down in 1987, and there was upward pressure on wages and prices, and the Federal Reserve tightened monetary policy.</p><p><b>2007/11-2008/09：</b>The soaring oil price pushed up inflation, and the financial crisis broke out. The first task of the Federal Reserve's monetary policy was to bail out the market, and inflation was not in its focus.</p><p><b>The causes of current inflation are similar to those of 1973-1982 inflation, both of which are cost-driven.</b></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/327f6f12c3af30abee8fa0ae334f9763\" tg-width=\"1006\" tg-height=\"611\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0ca353ebcbaf95ba1da0b46a815d5f8b\" tg-width=\"1025\" tg-height=\"853\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><b>The main reason for this surge in inflation lies in the base effect and supply shortage under the pandemic.</b>The US CPI recorded 5.0% in May this year (the highest level since August 2008), but<b>From the perspective of CPI index, the compound growth rate in May 2021 relative to May 2019 was only 2.5%.</b></p><p><b>For this year's deduction of inflation, we focus on the two sub-items of used cars and rent.</b></p><p><b>One of the main thrust forces for inflation is used cars.</b>Under the deterioration of the epidemic situation in Southeast Asia, many chip factories shut down, and the shortage of chips led to the reduction of production by car companies. The supply of new cars is insufficient, the demand for used cars has soared, and prices have skyrocketed (Figure 2). According to Manheim data, used vehicle sales prices increased more than new vehicles in 2021 (Figure 3). In addition, other transportation-related price increases widened further in May, with the increase in transportation service prices expanding to 11.2% from 5.6% in April, doubling the increase.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/884ed39a8682a3df05e8411f17f2105c\" tg-width=\"995\" tg-height=\"585\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/599b70f4fadb590d0d7b20254d4b1403\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"738\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><b>The trend of rent prices has an important impact on the deduction of future inflation.</b>The weight of rent in the US CPI is high (about 30%). Although the growth rate of rent is relatively modest compared with other sub-items (2.2% year-on-year in May this year), the growth rate slope has steepened since the beginning of the year (Figure 4).<b>It is expected that rent will continue to rise moderately in the future, affected by supply shortages</b>。</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/869c4f313152d3a14769097f150fb674\" tg-width=\"1021\" tg-height=\"644\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><b>What is the trend of inflation expectations?</b></p><p>From a consumer perspective, Michigan's expected inflation data shows that 2<b>In May 2021, the five-year inflation expectation of U.S. consumers jumped to 3.0% from 2.7% last month (Figure 5), but it is still lower than the 3.5% that the Federal Reserve can tolerate.</b></p><p>From the perspective of policymakers, as stated in our previous report, the Fed focuses on the monitoring of inflation expectations, and the key indicators are<b>Common Inflation Expectations Index (CIE), CIE is quarterly data, and data for the second quarter of 2021 is expected to be released by the end of this month.</b></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/21708bec0c792eb9299eda62ba3cd077\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"666\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><b>How will future inflation affect asset prices?</b></p><p>We review the changes of the yields of US dollars, US stocks and US bonds in different time intervals after CPI broke 4% in the above four major inflations (Table 2):<b>Inflation has a negative impact on the US dollar and US stocks. The former lags behind, while the latter is reflected within one month.</b>Interestingly, the impact of inflation on US debt yields is irregular. For the research framework of US debt, please refer to our previous report.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/037d9e565ff952b13c942386e8d08506\" tg-width=\"1059\" tg-height=\"599\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><b>Risk warning:</b>Geopolitical risks mount as Fed tightens monetary policy too quickly</p><p><hr>Congratulations on finding the letter E and participating in the \"Tiger Search\" activity. If you leave a message \"Tiger is here\" in the next post, you can get 100 Tiger coins. If you collect 7 pictures and leave a message, you can also get a 7th anniversary limited gift box. (For details, please click<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/TW/181890541\" target=\"_blank\">[7th Anniversary Award-winning Activity] Tiger Search</a>Understanding)</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b519142d901e1ef1ff2a2e443798687b\" tg-width=\"214\" tg-height=\"286\"></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> source：<a href=\"https://www.zhitongcaijing.com/content/detail/492521.html\">川阅全球宏观</a></p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/93c3dba7c4b0e443e40fe6df5639434d","relate_stocks":{".DJI":"道琼斯"},"source_url":"https://www.zhitongcaijing.com/content/detail/492521.html","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1156453091","content_text":"美国东部时间2021年6月10日，美国劳工部发布5月通胀数据。美国5月CPI同比升5.0%、核心CPI同比升3.8%，创2008年8月以来最大增幅。今年年初以来，美国通胀率加速上升，美联储6月议息会议在即，市场上通胀担忧挥之不去。我们回顾了历史上美国通胀的几次飙升，以便更好地理解本次的通胀及其影响：\n1960年以来美国CPI同比破5%出现了4次(图1)。我们对CPI破4%、破5%至回落期间的经济基本面和美联储政策进行了复盘(表1)。\n1968/06-1971/09：经济陷入衰退，但前期大幅政府开支与财政刺激的余温仍在，通胀持续上升，美联储在1970年收紧货币政策以抑制通胀。\n1973/03-1982/11：粮食危机和石油危机的双重打击下，美国经济陷入滞胀，供给冲击与成本推升通胀。政府价格管制失败，货币政策缺乏独立性并且过于滞后，未能成功抑制通胀。\n1987/08-1991/07：走出滞胀后，美国经济经历了高速增长，但1987年开始经济增速放缓，并出现工资和价格上涨压力，美联储收紧货币政策。\n2007/11-2008/09：油价飙升推升通胀，金融危机爆发，美联储货币政策的首要任务在于救市，通胀不在其重点关注范围内。\n当前的通胀和1973-1982年通胀的成因较为相似，均为成本推动。\n\n本次通胀飙升的主要原因在于疫情下的基数效应和供给短缺。今年5月美国CPI录得5.0%(为2008年8月以来的最高水平)，但是从CPI指数角度，2021年5月相对于2019年5月的复合增速仅为2.5%。\n对于今年通胀的演绎，我们重点关注二手车和房租两个分项。\n通胀的主要推力之一为二手车。东南亚疫情恶化下多地芯片厂停工，芯片短缺导致车企减产。新车供应不足，二手车需求剧增，价格飙升(图2)。根据Manheim数据，2021年二手车售价增幅超越新车(图3)。此外，5月其他交通相关的价格涨幅进一步扩大，交通服务价格增幅从4月的5.6%扩大至11.2%，增幅翻倍。\n\n房租价格走势对未来通胀的演绎有重要影响。美国CPI中房租的权重较高(约30%)，尽管相对于其它分项，房租的增速相对温和(今年5月同比增2.2%)，但年初以来增速斜率陡峭化(图4)，我们预计受到供给短缺的影响，未来房租将会持续温和地上升。\n\n通胀预期走势如何?\n从消费者的角度，密西根预期通胀率数据显示，2021年5月美国消费者5年通胀预期从上月的2.7%跳升至3.0%(图5)，但是仍然低于美联储可以容忍的3.5%。\n从政策制定者角度，如我们此前报告所述，美联储注重通胀预期的监测，关键指标为共同通胀预期指数(CIE)，CIE为季度数据，预计2021年二季度的数据将于本月底公布。\n\n未来通胀将会怎样影响资产价格?\n我们复盘了上述四次大通胀中，CPI破4%后不同时间区间内美元、美股和美债收益率的变化(表2)：通胀对于美元、美股存在负面影响，前者较为滞后，后者1个月内即有体现。有趣的是，通胀对于美债收益率的影响不具规律性，关于美债的研究框架，请参考我们此前的报告。\n\n风险提示：美联储过快收紧货币政策，地缘政治风险加剧\n\n恭喜您找到了字母E，参与《老虎大搜查》活动，下帖留言“ Tiger is here” 即可获赠100虎币，如集齐7张图片并留言，还可获赠7周年限定礼盒。（详情请点击【七周年有奖活动】老虎大搜查 了解）","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{".DJI":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2631,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":181288268,"gmtCreate":1623396458754,"gmtModify":1704202478170,"author":{"id":"3494282548206344","authorId":"3494282548206344","name":"李菲特","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/400c37df7718cdcde0948e6e9b83f30c","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3494282548206344","idStr":"3494282548206344"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Tiger is here！","listText":"Tiger is here！","text":"Tiger is here！","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/181288268","repostId":"1156453091","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"1156453091","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1623333482,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1156453091?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2021-06-10 21:58","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"Taking history as a mirror, the deduction and impact of inflation soaring in the United States","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1156453091","media":"川阅全球宏观","summary":"美国东部时间2021年6月10日，美国劳工部发布5月通胀数据。美国5月CPI同比升5.0%、核心CPI同比升3.8%，创2008年8月以来最大增幅。今年年初以来，美国通胀率加速上升，美联储6月议息会议在即，市场上通胀担忧挥之不去。我们回顾了历史上美国通胀的几次飙升，以便更好地理解本次的通胀及其影响：。1960年以来美国CPI同比破5%出现了4次(图1)。本次通胀飙升的主要原因在于疫情下的基数效应和供给短缺。房租价格走势对未来通胀的演绎有重要影响。","content":"<p>On June 10, 2021 EDT, the U.S. Department of Labor released inflation data for May.<b>In May, the CPI of the United States rose by 5.0% year-on-year, and the core CPI rose by 3.8% year-on-year, the largest increase since August 2008. Since the beginning of this year, the inflation rate in the United States has accelerated, and the Federal Reserve's interest rate meeting in June is imminent. Inflation worries in the market linger.</b>We have reviewed several spikes in U.S. inflation throughout history to better understand this one and its impact:</p><p><b>Since 1960, the U.S. CPI has broken 5% year-on-year four times</b>(FIG. 1). We conducted a review of the economic fundamentals and Fed policy from the period when CPI broke 4%, broke 5% and retreated (Table 1).</p><p><b>1968/06-1971/09</b>: The economy is in recession, but the residual warmth of large government spending and fiscal stimulus in the early period is still there, and inflation continues to rise. The Federal Reserve tightened monetary policy in 1970 to curb inflation.</p><p><b>1973/03-1982/11：</b>Under the double blow of the food crisis and the oil crisis, the US economy fell into stagflation, and supply shocks and costs pushed up inflation. Government price controls failed and monetary policy lacked independence and was too lagging to successfully curb inflation.</p><p><b>1987/08-1991/07：</b>After emerging from stagflation, the U.S. economy experienced high growth, but began to slow down in 1987, and there was upward pressure on wages and prices, and the Federal Reserve tightened monetary policy.</p><p><b>2007/11-2008/09：</b>The soaring oil price pushed up inflation, and the financial crisis broke out. The first task of the Federal Reserve's monetary policy was to bail out the market, and inflation was not in its focus.</p><p><b>The causes of current inflation are similar to those of 1973-1982 inflation, both of which are cost-driven.</b></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/327f6f12c3af30abee8fa0ae334f9763\" tg-width=\"1006\" tg-height=\"611\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0ca353ebcbaf95ba1da0b46a815d5f8b\" tg-width=\"1025\" tg-height=\"853\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><b>The main reason for this surge in inflation lies in the base effect and supply shortage under the pandemic.</b>The US CPI recorded 5.0% in May this year (the highest level since August 2008), but<b>From the perspective of CPI index, the compound growth rate in May 2021 relative to May 2019 was only 2.5%.</b></p><p><b>For this year's deduction of inflation, we focus on the two sub-items of used cars and rent.</b></p><p><b>One of the main thrust forces for inflation is used cars.</b>Under the deterioration of the epidemic situation in Southeast Asia, many chip factories shut down, and the shortage of chips led to the reduction of production by car companies. The supply of new cars is insufficient, the demand for used cars has soared, and prices have skyrocketed (Figure 2). According to Manheim data, used vehicle sales prices increased more than new vehicles in 2021 (Figure 3). In addition, other transportation-related price increases widened further in May, with the increase in transportation service prices expanding to 11.2% from 5.6% in April, doubling the increase.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/884ed39a8682a3df05e8411f17f2105c\" tg-width=\"995\" tg-height=\"585\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/599b70f4fadb590d0d7b20254d4b1403\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"738\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><b>The trend of rent prices has an important impact on the deduction of future inflation.</b>The weight of rent in the US CPI is high (about 30%). Although the growth rate of rent is relatively modest compared with other sub-items (2.2% year-on-year in May this year), the growth rate slope has steepened since the beginning of the year (Figure 4).<b>It is expected that rent will continue to rise moderately in the future, affected by supply shortages</b>。</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/869c4f313152d3a14769097f150fb674\" tg-width=\"1021\" tg-height=\"644\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><b>What is the trend of inflation expectations?</b></p><p>From a consumer perspective, Michigan's expected inflation data shows that 2<b>In May 2021, the five-year inflation expectation of U.S. consumers jumped to 3.0% from 2.7% last month (Figure 5), but it is still lower than the 3.5% that the Federal Reserve can tolerate.</b></p><p>From the perspective of policymakers, as stated in our previous report, the Fed focuses on the monitoring of inflation expectations, and the key indicators are<b>Common Inflation Expectations Index (CIE), CIE is quarterly data, and data for the second quarter of 2021 is expected to be released by the end of this month.</b></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/21708bec0c792eb9299eda62ba3cd077\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"666\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><b>How will future inflation affect asset prices?</b></p><p>We review the changes of the yields of US dollars, US stocks and US bonds in different time intervals after CPI broke 4% in the above four major inflations (Table 2):<b>Inflation has a negative impact on the US dollar and US stocks. The former lags behind, while the latter is reflected within one month.</b>Interestingly, the impact of inflation on US debt yields is irregular. For the research framework of US debt, please refer to our previous report.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/037d9e565ff952b13c942386e8d08506\" tg-width=\"1059\" tg-height=\"599\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><b>Risk warning:</b>Geopolitical risks mount as Fed tightens monetary policy too quickly</p><p><hr>Congratulations on finding the letter E and participating in the \"Tiger Search\" activity. If you leave a message \"Tiger is here\" in the next post, you can get 100 Tiger coins. If you collect 7 pictures and leave a message, you can also get a 7th anniversary limited gift box. (For details, please click<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/TW/181890541\" target=\"_blank\">[7th Anniversary Award-winning Activity] Tiger Search</a>Understanding)</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b519142d901e1ef1ff2a2e443798687b\" tg-width=\"214\" tg-height=\"286\"></p>","source":"lsy1582083733592","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Taking history as a mirror, the deduction and impact of inflation soaring in the United States</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nTaking history as a mirror, the deduction and impact of inflation soaring in the United States\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">川阅全球宏观</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-06-10 21:58</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>On June 10, 2021 EDT, the U.S. Department of Labor released inflation data for May.<b>In May, the CPI of the United States rose by 5.0% year-on-year, and the core CPI rose by 3.8% year-on-year, the largest increase since August 2008. Since the beginning of this year, the inflation rate in the United States has accelerated, and the Federal Reserve's interest rate meeting in June is imminent. Inflation worries in the market linger.</b>We have reviewed several spikes in U.S. inflation throughout history to better understand this one and its impact:</p><p><b>Since 1960, the U.S. CPI has broken 5% year-on-year four times</b>(FIG. 1). We conducted a review of the economic fundamentals and Fed policy from the period when CPI broke 4%, broke 5% and retreated (Table 1).</p><p><b>1968/06-1971/09</b>: The economy is in recession, but the residual warmth of large government spending and fiscal stimulus in the early period is still there, and inflation continues to rise. The Federal Reserve tightened monetary policy in 1970 to curb inflation.</p><p><b>1973/03-1982/11：</b>Under the double blow of the food crisis and the oil crisis, the US economy fell into stagflation, and supply shocks and costs pushed up inflation. Government price controls failed and monetary policy lacked independence and was too lagging to successfully curb inflation.</p><p><b>1987/08-1991/07：</b>After emerging from stagflation, the U.S. economy experienced high growth, but began to slow down in 1987, and there was upward pressure on wages and prices, and the Federal Reserve tightened monetary policy.</p><p><b>2007/11-2008/09：</b>The soaring oil price pushed up inflation, and the financial crisis broke out. The first task of the Federal Reserve's monetary policy was to bail out the market, and inflation was not in its focus.</p><p><b>The causes of current inflation are similar to those of 1973-1982 inflation, both of which are cost-driven.</b></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/327f6f12c3af30abee8fa0ae334f9763\" tg-width=\"1006\" tg-height=\"611\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0ca353ebcbaf95ba1da0b46a815d5f8b\" tg-width=\"1025\" tg-height=\"853\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><b>The main reason for this surge in inflation lies in the base effect and supply shortage under the pandemic.</b>The US CPI recorded 5.0% in May this year (the highest level since August 2008), but<b>From the perspective of CPI index, the compound growth rate in May 2021 relative to May 2019 was only 2.5%.</b></p><p><b>For this year's deduction of inflation, we focus on the two sub-items of used cars and rent.</b></p><p><b>One of the main thrust forces for inflation is used cars.</b>Under the deterioration of the epidemic situation in Southeast Asia, many chip factories shut down, and the shortage of chips led to the reduction of production by car companies. The supply of new cars is insufficient, the demand for used cars has soared, and prices have skyrocketed (Figure 2). According to Manheim data, used vehicle sales prices increased more than new vehicles in 2021 (Figure 3). In addition, other transportation-related price increases widened further in May, with the increase in transportation service prices expanding to 11.2% from 5.6% in April, doubling the increase.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/884ed39a8682a3df05e8411f17f2105c\" tg-width=\"995\" tg-height=\"585\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/599b70f4fadb590d0d7b20254d4b1403\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"738\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><b>The trend of rent prices has an important impact on the deduction of future inflation.</b>The weight of rent in the US CPI is high (about 30%). Although the growth rate of rent is relatively modest compared with other sub-items (2.2% year-on-year in May this year), the growth rate slope has steepened since the beginning of the year (Figure 4).<b>It is expected that rent will continue to rise moderately in the future, affected by supply shortages</b>。</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/869c4f313152d3a14769097f150fb674\" tg-width=\"1021\" tg-height=\"644\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><b>What is the trend of inflation expectations?</b></p><p>From a consumer perspective, Michigan's expected inflation data shows that 2<b>In May 2021, the five-year inflation expectation of U.S. consumers jumped to 3.0% from 2.7% last month (Figure 5), but it is still lower than the 3.5% that the Federal Reserve can tolerate.</b></p><p>From the perspective of policymakers, as stated in our previous report, the Fed focuses on the monitoring of inflation expectations, and the key indicators are<b>Common Inflation Expectations Index (CIE), CIE is quarterly data, and data for the second quarter of 2021 is expected to be released by the end of this month.</b></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/21708bec0c792eb9299eda62ba3cd077\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"666\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><b>How will future inflation affect asset prices?</b></p><p>We review the changes of the yields of US dollars, US stocks and US bonds in different time intervals after CPI broke 4% in the above four major inflations (Table 2):<b>Inflation has a negative impact on the US dollar and US stocks. The former lags behind, while the latter is reflected within one month.</b>Interestingly, the impact of inflation on US debt yields is irregular. For the research framework of US debt, please refer to our previous report.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/037d9e565ff952b13c942386e8d08506\" tg-width=\"1059\" tg-height=\"599\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><b>Risk warning:</b>Geopolitical risks mount as Fed tightens monetary policy too quickly</p><p><hr>Congratulations on finding the letter E and participating in the \"Tiger Search\" activity. If you leave a message \"Tiger is here\" in the next post, you can get 100 Tiger coins. If you collect 7 pictures and leave a message, you can also get a 7th anniversary limited gift box. (For details, please click<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/TW/181890541\" target=\"_blank\">[7th Anniversary Award-winning Activity] Tiger Search</a>Understanding)</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b519142d901e1ef1ff2a2e443798687b\" tg-width=\"214\" tg-height=\"286\"></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> source：<a href=\"https://www.zhitongcaijing.com/content/detail/492521.html\">川阅全球宏观</a></p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/93c3dba7c4b0e443e40fe6df5639434d","relate_stocks":{".DJI":"道琼斯"},"source_url":"https://www.zhitongcaijing.com/content/detail/492521.html","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1156453091","content_text":"美国东部时间2021年6月10日，美国劳工部发布5月通胀数据。美国5月CPI同比升5.0%、核心CPI同比升3.8%，创2008年8月以来最大增幅。今年年初以来，美国通胀率加速上升，美联储6月议息会议在即，市场上通胀担忧挥之不去。我们回顾了历史上美国通胀的几次飙升，以便更好地理解本次的通胀及其影响：\n1960年以来美国CPI同比破5%出现了4次(图1)。我们对CPI破4%、破5%至回落期间的经济基本面和美联储政策进行了复盘(表1)。\n1968/06-1971/09：经济陷入衰退，但前期大幅政府开支与财政刺激的余温仍在，通胀持续上升，美联储在1970年收紧货币政策以抑制通胀。\n1973/03-1982/11：粮食危机和石油危机的双重打击下，美国经济陷入滞胀，供给冲击与成本推升通胀。政府价格管制失败，货币政策缺乏独立性并且过于滞后，未能成功抑制通胀。\n1987/08-1991/07：走出滞胀后，美国经济经历了高速增长，但1987年开始经济增速放缓，并出现工资和价格上涨压力，美联储收紧货币政策。\n2007/11-2008/09：油价飙升推升通胀，金融危机爆发，美联储货币政策的首要任务在于救市，通胀不在其重点关注范围内。\n当前的通胀和1973-1982年通胀的成因较为相似，均为成本推动。\n\n本次通胀飙升的主要原因在于疫情下的基数效应和供给短缺。今年5月美国CPI录得5.0%(为2008年8月以来的最高水平)，但是从CPI指数角度，2021年5月相对于2019年5月的复合增速仅为2.5%。\n对于今年通胀的演绎，我们重点关注二手车和房租两个分项。\n通胀的主要推力之一为二手车。东南亚疫情恶化下多地芯片厂停工，芯片短缺导致车企减产。新车供应不足，二手车需求剧增，价格飙升(图2)。根据Manheim数据，2021年二手车售价增幅超越新车(图3)。此外，5月其他交通相关的价格涨幅进一步扩大，交通服务价格增幅从4月的5.6%扩大至11.2%，增幅翻倍。\n\n房租价格走势对未来通胀的演绎有重要影响。美国CPI中房租的权重较高(约30%)，尽管相对于其它分项，房租的增速相对温和(今年5月同比增2.2%)，但年初以来增速斜率陡峭化(图4)，我们预计受到供给短缺的影响，未来房租将会持续温和地上升。\n\n通胀预期走势如何?\n从消费者的角度，密西根预期通胀率数据显示，2021年5月美国消费者5年通胀预期从上月的2.7%跳升至3.0%(图5)，但是仍然低于美联储可以容忍的3.5%。\n从政策制定者角度，如我们此前报告所述，美联储注重通胀预期的监测，关键指标为共同通胀预期指数(CIE)，CIE为季度数据，预计2021年二季度的数据将于本月底公布。\n\n未来通胀将会怎样影响资产价格?\n我们复盘了上述四次大通胀中，CPI破4%后不同时间区间内美元、美股和美债收益率的变化(表2)：通胀对于美元、美股存在负面影响，前者较为滞后，后者1个月内即有体现。有趣的是，通胀对于美债收益率的影响不具规律性，关于美债的研究框架，请参考我们此前的报告。\n\n风险提示：美联储过快收紧货币政策，地缘政治风险加剧\n\n恭喜您找到了字母E，参与《老虎大搜查》活动，下帖留言“ Tiger is here” 即可获赠100虎币，如集齐7张图片并留言，还可获赠7周年限定礼盒。（详情请点击【七周年有奖活动】老虎大搜查 了解）","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{".DJI":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2544,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":181281252,"gmtCreate":1623396427376,"gmtModify":1704202476708,"author":{"id":"3494282548206344","authorId":"3494282548206344","name":"李菲特","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/400c37df7718cdcde0948e6e9b83f30c","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3494282548206344","idStr":"3494282548206344"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Tiger is here！","listText":"Tiger is here！","text":"Tiger is here！","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/181281252","repostId":"1140839418","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"1140839418","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1623382205,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1140839418?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2021-06-11 11:30","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"One picture to understand Didi's prospectus: spread across 15 countries, with an average daily order volume of 41 million","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1140839418","media":"腾讯科技","summary":"6月11日消息，美国当地时间周四，$滴滴出行 $的运营主体小桔快智向美国证券交易委员会提交了IPO招股书，计划在纳斯达克股票市场或纽约证券交易所挂牌上市，股票代码为“DIDI”。根据滴滴披露的数据显示，目前滴滴已经在15个国家的4000多个城市和地区开通业务，年活跃用户数量4.93亿，年活跃司机数量1500万，日均单量4100万，年平台交易总额3410亿元，2018年至2021年Q1累计司机收入6000+亿元。","content":"<p>June 11th news, Thursday local time in the United States,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/DIDI\">Didi Chuxing</a>Xiaoju Kuaizhi, the operating entity, submitted an IPO prospectus to the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC), and plans to be listed on the Nasdaq stock market or the New York Stock Exchange with the stock code \"DIDI\".</p><p>According to the data disclosed by Didi, at present, Didi has opened business in more than 4,000 cities and regions in 15 countries, with an annual number of active users of 493 million, an annual number of active drivers of 15 million, an average daily order volume of 41 million, a total annual platform transaction volume of 341 billion yuan, and a cumulative driver income of 600+ billion yuan from 2018 to Q1 of 2021.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2a935c6b681f2f3744604b5596e29cac\" tg-width=\"2100\" tg-height=\"13686\"></p><p><hr>Congratulations on finding the letter I and participating in the \"Tiger Search\" activity. If you leave a message \"Tiger is here\" in the next post, you can get 100 Tiger coins. If you collect 7 pictures and leave a message, you can also get a 7th anniversary limited gift box. (For details, please click<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/TW/181890541\" target=\"_blank\">[7th Anniversary Award-winning Activity] Tiger Search</a>Understanding)<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ba72fe98df37f49a4d31b0a0684a03aa\" tg-width=\"214\" tg-height=\"286\"></p>","source":"txkj","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>One picture to understand Didi's prospectus: spread across 15 countries, with an average daily order volume of 41 million</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nOne picture to understand Didi's prospectus: spread across 15 countries, with an average daily order volume of 41 million\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">腾讯科技</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-06-11 11:30</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>June 11th news, Thursday local time in the United States,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/DIDI\">Didi Chuxing</a>Xiaoju Kuaizhi, the operating entity, submitted an IPO prospectus to the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC), and plans to be listed on the Nasdaq stock market or the New York Stock Exchange with the stock code \"DIDI\".</p><p>According to the data disclosed by Didi, at present, Didi has opened business in more than 4,000 cities and regions in 15 countries, with an annual number of active users of 493 million, an annual number of active drivers of 15 million, an average daily order volume of 41 million, a total annual platform transaction volume of 341 billion yuan, and a cumulative driver income of 600+ billion yuan from 2018 to Q1 of 2021.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2a935c6b681f2f3744604b5596e29cac\" tg-width=\"2100\" tg-height=\"13686\"></p><p><hr>Congratulations on finding the letter I and participating in the \"Tiger Search\" activity. If you leave a message \"Tiger is here\" in the next post, you can get 100 Tiger coins. If you collect 7 pictures and leave a message, you can also get a 7th anniversary limited gift box. (For details, please click<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/TW/181890541\" target=\"_blank\">[7th Anniversary Award-winning Activity] Tiger Search</a>Understanding)<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ba72fe98df37f49a4d31b0a0684a03aa\" tg-width=\"214\" tg-height=\"286\"></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> source：<a href=\"https://new.qq.com/rain/a/20210611A02NC800\">腾讯科技</a></p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b9f14473f3e986de32cc80f6fd80b679","relate_stocks":{"DIDI":"滴滴(已退市)"},"source_url":"https://new.qq.com/rain/a/20210611A02NC800","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1140839418","content_text":"6月11日消息，美国当地时间周四，滴滴出行的运营主体小桔快智向美国证券交易委员会（SEC）提交了IPO招股书，计划在纳斯达克股票市场或纽约证券交易所挂牌上市，股票代码为“DIDI”。\n根据滴滴披露的数据显示，目前滴滴已经在15个国家的4000多个城市和地区开通业务，年活跃用户数量4.93亿，年活跃司机数量1500万，日均单量4100万，年平台交易总额3410亿元，2018年至2021年Q1累计司机收入6000+亿元。\n\n\n恭喜您找到了字母I，参与《老虎大搜查》活动，下帖留言“ Tiger is here” 即可获赠100虎币，如集齐7张图片并留言，还可获赠7周年限定礼盒。（详情请点击【七周年有奖活动】老虎大搜查 了解）","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"DIDI":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":948,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0}],"hots":[{"id":181431712,"gmtCreate":1623405861936,"gmtModify":1704202720459,"author":{"id":"3494282548206344","authorId":"3494282548206344","name":"李菲特","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/400c37df7718cdcde0948e6e9b83f30c","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3494282548206344","idStr":"3494282548206344"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Tiger is here！","listText":"Tiger is here！","text":"Tiger is here！","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/181431712","repostId":"1140839418","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"1140839418","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1623382205,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1140839418?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2021-06-11 11:30","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"One picture to understand Didi's prospectus: spread across 15 countries, with an average daily order volume of 41 million","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1140839418","media":"腾讯科技","summary":"6月11日消息，美国当地时间周四，$滴滴出行 $的运营主体小桔快智向美国证券交易委员会提交了IPO招股书，计划在纳斯达克股票市场或纽约证券交易所挂牌上市，股票代码为“DIDI”。根据滴滴披露的数据显示，目前滴滴已经在15个国家的4000多个城市和地区开通业务，年活跃用户数量4.93亿，年活跃司机数量1500万，日均单量4100万，年平台交易总额3410亿元，2018年至2021年Q1累计司机收入6000+亿元。","content":"<p>June 11th news, Thursday local time in the United States,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/DIDI\">Didi Chuxing</a>Xiaoju Kuaizhi, the operating entity, submitted an IPO prospectus to the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC), and plans to be listed on the Nasdaq stock market or the New York Stock Exchange with the stock code \"DIDI\".</p><p>According to the data disclosed by Didi, at present, Didi has opened business in more than 4,000 cities and regions in 15 countries, with an annual number of active users of 493 million, an annual number of active drivers of 15 million, an average daily order volume of 41 million, a total annual platform transaction volume of 341 billion yuan, and a cumulative driver income of 600+ billion yuan from 2018 to Q1 of 2021.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2a935c6b681f2f3744604b5596e29cac\" tg-width=\"2100\" tg-height=\"13686\"></p><p><hr>Congratulations on finding the letter I and participating in the \"Tiger Search\" activity. If you leave a message \"Tiger is here\" in the next post, you can get 100 Tiger coins. If you collect 7 pictures and leave a message, you can also get a 7th anniversary limited gift box. (For details, please click<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/TW/181890541\" target=\"_blank\">[7th Anniversary Award-winning Activity] Tiger Search</a>Understanding)<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ba72fe98df37f49a4d31b0a0684a03aa\" tg-width=\"214\" tg-height=\"286\"></p>","source":"txkj","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>One picture to understand Didi's prospectus: spread across 15 countries, with an average daily order volume of 41 million</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nOne picture to understand Didi's prospectus: spread across 15 countries, with an average daily order volume of 41 million\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">腾讯科技</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-06-11 11:30</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>June 11th news, Thursday local time in the United States,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/DIDI\">Didi Chuxing</a>Xiaoju Kuaizhi, the operating entity, submitted an IPO prospectus to the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC), and plans to be listed on the Nasdaq stock market or the New York Stock Exchange with the stock code \"DIDI\".</p><p>According to the data disclosed by Didi, at present, Didi has opened business in more than 4,000 cities and regions in 15 countries, with an annual number of active users of 493 million, an annual number of active drivers of 15 million, an average daily order volume of 41 million, a total annual platform transaction volume of 341 billion yuan, and a cumulative driver income of 600+ billion yuan from 2018 to Q1 of 2021.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2a935c6b681f2f3744604b5596e29cac\" tg-width=\"2100\" tg-height=\"13686\"></p><p><hr>Congratulations on finding the letter I and participating in the \"Tiger Search\" activity. If you leave a message \"Tiger is here\" in the next post, you can get 100 Tiger coins. If you collect 7 pictures and leave a message, you can also get a 7th anniversary limited gift box. (For details, please click<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/TW/181890541\" target=\"_blank\">[7th Anniversary Award-winning Activity] Tiger Search</a>Understanding)<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ba72fe98df37f49a4d31b0a0684a03aa\" tg-width=\"214\" tg-height=\"286\"></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> source：<a href=\"https://new.qq.com/rain/a/20210611A02NC800\">腾讯科技</a></p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b9f14473f3e986de32cc80f6fd80b679","relate_stocks":{"DIDI":"滴滴(已退市)"},"source_url":"https://new.qq.com/rain/a/20210611A02NC800","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1140839418","content_text":"6月11日消息，美国当地时间周四，滴滴出行的运营主体小桔快智向美国证券交易委员会（SEC）提交了IPO招股书，计划在纳斯达克股票市场或纽约证券交易所挂牌上市，股票代码为“DIDI”。\n根据滴滴披露的数据显示，目前滴滴已经在15个国家的4000多个城市和地区开通业务，年活跃用户数量4.93亿，年活跃司机数量1500万，日均单量4100万，年平台交易总额3410亿元，2018年至2021年Q1累计司机收入6000+亿元。\n\n\n恭喜您找到了字母I，参与《老虎大搜查》活动，下帖留言“ Tiger is here” 即可获赠100虎币，如集齐7张图片并留言，还可获赠7周年限定礼盒。（详情请点击【七周年有奖活动】老虎大搜查 了解）","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"DIDI":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2611,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":181431698,"gmtCreate":1623405846814,"gmtModify":1704202719811,"author":{"id":"3494282548206344","authorId":"3494282548206344","name":"李菲特","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/400c37df7718cdcde0948e6e9b83f30c","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3494282548206344","idStr":"3494282548206344"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Tiger is here！","listText":"Tiger is here！","text":"Tiger is here！","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/181431698","repostId":"1156453091","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"1156453091","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1623333482,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1156453091?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2021-06-10 21:58","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"Taking history as a mirror, the deduction and impact of inflation soaring in the United States","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1156453091","media":"川阅全球宏观","summary":"美国东部时间2021年6月10日，美国劳工部发布5月通胀数据。美国5月CPI同比升5.0%、核心CPI同比升3.8%，创2008年8月以来最大增幅。今年年初以来，美国通胀率加速上升，美联储6月议息会议在即，市场上通胀担忧挥之不去。我们回顾了历史上美国通胀的几次飙升，以便更好地理解本次的通胀及其影响：。1960年以来美国CPI同比破5%出现了4次(图1)。本次通胀飙升的主要原因在于疫情下的基数效应和供给短缺。房租价格走势对未来通胀的演绎有重要影响。","content":"<p>On June 10, 2021 EDT, the U.S. Department of Labor released inflation data for May.<b>In May, the CPI of the United States rose by 5.0% year-on-year, and the core CPI rose by 3.8% year-on-year, the largest increase since August 2008. Since the beginning of this year, the inflation rate in the United States has accelerated, and the Federal Reserve's interest rate meeting in June is imminent. Inflation worries in the market linger.</b>We have reviewed several spikes in U.S. inflation throughout history to better understand this one and its impact:</p><p><b>Since 1960, the U.S. CPI has broken 5% year-on-year four times</b>(FIG. 1). We conducted a review of the economic fundamentals and Fed policy from the period when CPI broke 4%, broke 5% and retreated (Table 1).</p><p><b>1968/06-1971/09</b>: The economy is in recession, but the residual warmth of large government spending and fiscal stimulus in the early period is still there, and inflation continues to rise. The Federal Reserve tightened monetary policy in 1970 to curb inflation.</p><p><b>1973/03-1982/11：</b>Under the double blow of the food crisis and the oil crisis, the US economy fell into stagflation, and supply shocks and costs pushed up inflation. Government price controls failed and monetary policy lacked independence and was too lagging to successfully curb inflation.</p><p><b>1987/08-1991/07：</b>After emerging from stagflation, the U.S. economy experienced high growth, but began to slow down in 1987, and there was upward pressure on wages and prices, and the Federal Reserve tightened monetary policy.</p><p><b>2007/11-2008/09：</b>The soaring oil price pushed up inflation, and the financial crisis broke out. The first task of the Federal Reserve's monetary policy was to bail out the market, and inflation was not in its focus.</p><p><b>The causes of current inflation are similar to those of 1973-1982 inflation, both of which are cost-driven.</b></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/327f6f12c3af30abee8fa0ae334f9763\" tg-width=\"1006\" tg-height=\"611\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0ca353ebcbaf95ba1da0b46a815d5f8b\" tg-width=\"1025\" tg-height=\"853\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><b>The main reason for this surge in inflation lies in the base effect and supply shortage under the pandemic.</b>The US CPI recorded 5.0% in May this year (the highest level since August 2008), but<b>From the perspective of CPI index, the compound growth rate in May 2021 relative to May 2019 was only 2.5%.</b></p><p><b>For this year's deduction of inflation, we focus on the two sub-items of used cars and rent.</b></p><p><b>One of the main thrust forces for inflation is used cars.</b>Under the deterioration of the epidemic situation in Southeast Asia, many chip factories shut down, and the shortage of chips led to the reduction of production by car companies. The supply of new cars is insufficient, the demand for used cars has soared, and prices have skyrocketed (Figure 2). According to Manheim data, used vehicle sales prices increased more than new vehicles in 2021 (Figure 3). In addition, other transportation-related price increases widened further in May, with the increase in transportation service prices expanding to 11.2% from 5.6% in April, doubling the increase.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/884ed39a8682a3df05e8411f17f2105c\" tg-width=\"995\" tg-height=\"585\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/599b70f4fadb590d0d7b20254d4b1403\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"738\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><b>The trend of rent prices has an important impact on the deduction of future inflation.</b>The weight of rent in the US CPI is high (about 30%). Although the growth rate of rent is relatively modest compared with other sub-items (2.2% year-on-year in May this year), the growth rate slope has steepened since the beginning of the year (Figure 4).<b>It is expected that rent will continue to rise moderately in the future, affected by supply shortages</b>。</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/869c4f313152d3a14769097f150fb674\" tg-width=\"1021\" tg-height=\"644\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><b>What is the trend of inflation expectations?</b></p><p>From a consumer perspective, Michigan's expected inflation data shows that 2<b>In May 2021, the five-year inflation expectation of U.S. consumers jumped to 3.0% from 2.7% last month (Figure 5), but it is still lower than the 3.5% that the Federal Reserve can tolerate.</b></p><p>From the perspective of policymakers, as stated in our previous report, the Fed focuses on the monitoring of inflation expectations, and the key indicators are<b>Common Inflation Expectations Index (CIE), CIE is quarterly data, and data for the second quarter of 2021 is expected to be released by the end of this month.</b></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/21708bec0c792eb9299eda62ba3cd077\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"666\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><b>How will future inflation affect asset prices?</b></p><p>We review the changes of the yields of US dollars, US stocks and US bonds in different time intervals after CPI broke 4% in the above four major inflations (Table 2):<b>Inflation has a negative impact on the US dollar and US stocks. The former lags behind, while the latter is reflected within one month.</b>Interestingly, the impact of inflation on US debt yields is irregular. For the research framework of US debt, please refer to our previous report.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/037d9e565ff952b13c942386e8d08506\" tg-width=\"1059\" tg-height=\"599\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><b>Risk warning:</b>Geopolitical risks mount as Fed tightens monetary policy too quickly</p><p><hr>Congratulations on finding the letter E and participating in the \"Tiger Search\" activity. If you leave a message \"Tiger is here\" in the next post, you can get 100 Tiger coins. If you collect 7 pictures and leave a message, you can also get a 7th anniversary limited gift box. (For details, please click<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/TW/181890541\" target=\"_blank\">[7th Anniversary Award-winning Activity] Tiger Search</a>Understanding)</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b519142d901e1ef1ff2a2e443798687b\" tg-width=\"214\" tg-height=\"286\"></p>","source":"lsy1582083733592","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Taking history as a mirror, the deduction and impact of inflation soaring in the United States</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nTaking history as a mirror, the deduction and impact of inflation soaring in the United States\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">川阅全球宏观</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-06-10 21:58</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>On June 10, 2021 EDT, the U.S. Department of Labor released inflation data for May.<b>In May, the CPI of the United States rose by 5.0% year-on-year, and the core CPI rose by 3.8% year-on-year, the largest increase since August 2008. Since the beginning of this year, the inflation rate in the United States has accelerated, and the Federal Reserve's interest rate meeting in June is imminent. Inflation worries in the market linger.</b>We have reviewed several spikes in U.S. inflation throughout history to better understand this one and its impact:</p><p><b>Since 1960, the U.S. CPI has broken 5% year-on-year four times</b>(FIG. 1). We conducted a review of the economic fundamentals and Fed policy from the period when CPI broke 4%, broke 5% and retreated (Table 1).</p><p><b>1968/06-1971/09</b>: The economy is in recession, but the residual warmth of large government spending and fiscal stimulus in the early period is still there, and inflation continues to rise. The Federal Reserve tightened monetary policy in 1970 to curb inflation.</p><p><b>1973/03-1982/11：</b>Under the double blow of the food crisis and the oil crisis, the US economy fell into stagflation, and supply shocks and costs pushed up inflation. Government price controls failed and monetary policy lacked independence and was too lagging to successfully curb inflation.</p><p><b>1987/08-1991/07：</b>After emerging from stagflation, the U.S. economy experienced high growth, but began to slow down in 1987, and there was upward pressure on wages and prices, and the Federal Reserve tightened monetary policy.</p><p><b>2007/11-2008/09：</b>The soaring oil price pushed up inflation, and the financial crisis broke out. The first task of the Federal Reserve's monetary policy was to bail out the market, and inflation was not in its focus.</p><p><b>The causes of current inflation are similar to those of 1973-1982 inflation, both of which are cost-driven.</b></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/327f6f12c3af30abee8fa0ae334f9763\" tg-width=\"1006\" tg-height=\"611\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0ca353ebcbaf95ba1da0b46a815d5f8b\" tg-width=\"1025\" tg-height=\"853\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><b>The main reason for this surge in inflation lies in the base effect and supply shortage under the pandemic.</b>The US CPI recorded 5.0% in May this year (the highest level since August 2008), but<b>From the perspective of CPI index, the compound growth rate in May 2021 relative to May 2019 was only 2.5%.</b></p><p><b>For this year's deduction of inflation, we focus on the two sub-items of used cars and rent.</b></p><p><b>One of the main thrust forces for inflation is used cars.</b>Under the deterioration of the epidemic situation in Southeast Asia, many chip factories shut down, and the shortage of chips led to the reduction of production by car companies. The supply of new cars is insufficient, the demand for used cars has soared, and prices have skyrocketed (Figure 2). According to Manheim data, used vehicle sales prices increased more than new vehicles in 2021 (Figure 3). In addition, other transportation-related price increases widened further in May, with the increase in transportation service prices expanding to 11.2% from 5.6% in April, doubling the increase.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/884ed39a8682a3df05e8411f17f2105c\" tg-width=\"995\" tg-height=\"585\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/599b70f4fadb590d0d7b20254d4b1403\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"738\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><b>The trend of rent prices has an important impact on the deduction of future inflation.</b>The weight of rent in the US CPI is high (about 30%). Although the growth rate of rent is relatively modest compared with other sub-items (2.2% year-on-year in May this year), the growth rate slope has steepened since the beginning of the year (Figure 4).<b>It is expected that rent will continue to rise moderately in the future, affected by supply shortages</b>。</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/869c4f313152d3a14769097f150fb674\" tg-width=\"1021\" tg-height=\"644\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><b>What is the trend of inflation expectations?</b></p><p>From a consumer perspective, Michigan's expected inflation data shows that 2<b>In May 2021, the five-year inflation expectation of U.S. consumers jumped to 3.0% from 2.7% last month (Figure 5), but it is still lower than the 3.5% that the Federal Reserve can tolerate.</b></p><p>From the perspective of policymakers, as stated in our previous report, the Fed focuses on the monitoring of inflation expectations, and the key indicators are<b>Common Inflation Expectations Index (CIE), CIE is quarterly data, and data for the second quarter of 2021 is expected to be released by the end of this month.</b></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/21708bec0c792eb9299eda62ba3cd077\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"666\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><b>How will future inflation affect asset prices?</b></p><p>We review the changes of the yields of US dollars, US stocks and US bonds in different time intervals after CPI broke 4% in the above four major inflations (Table 2):<b>Inflation has a negative impact on the US dollar and US stocks. The former lags behind, while the latter is reflected within one month.</b>Interestingly, the impact of inflation on US debt yields is irregular. For the research framework of US debt, please refer to our previous report.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/037d9e565ff952b13c942386e8d08506\" tg-width=\"1059\" tg-height=\"599\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><b>Risk warning:</b>Geopolitical risks mount as Fed tightens monetary policy too quickly</p><p><hr>Congratulations on finding the letter E and participating in the \"Tiger Search\" activity. If you leave a message \"Tiger is here\" in the next post, you can get 100 Tiger coins. If you collect 7 pictures and leave a message, you can also get a 7th anniversary limited gift box. (For details, please click<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/TW/181890541\" target=\"_blank\">[7th Anniversary Award-winning Activity] Tiger Search</a>Understanding)</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b519142d901e1ef1ff2a2e443798687b\" tg-width=\"214\" tg-height=\"286\"></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> source：<a href=\"https://www.zhitongcaijing.com/content/detail/492521.html\">川阅全球宏观</a></p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/93c3dba7c4b0e443e40fe6df5639434d","relate_stocks":{".DJI":"道琼斯"},"source_url":"https://www.zhitongcaijing.com/content/detail/492521.html","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1156453091","content_text":"美国东部时间2021年6月10日，美国劳工部发布5月通胀数据。美国5月CPI同比升5.0%、核心CPI同比升3.8%，创2008年8月以来最大增幅。今年年初以来，美国通胀率加速上升，美联储6月议息会议在即，市场上通胀担忧挥之不去。我们回顾了历史上美国通胀的几次飙升，以便更好地理解本次的通胀及其影响：\n1960年以来美国CPI同比破5%出现了4次(图1)。我们对CPI破4%、破5%至回落期间的经济基本面和美联储政策进行了复盘(表1)。\n1968/06-1971/09：经济陷入衰退，但前期大幅政府开支与财政刺激的余温仍在，通胀持续上升，美联储在1970年收紧货币政策以抑制通胀。\n1973/03-1982/11：粮食危机和石油危机的双重打击下，美国经济陷入滞胀，供给冲击与成本推升通胀。政府价格管制失败，货币政策缺乏独立性并且过于滞后，未能成功抑制通胀。\n1987/08-1991/07：走出滞胀后，美国经济经历了高速增长，但1987年开始经济增速放缓，并出现工资和价格上涨压力，美联储收紧货币政策。\n2007/11-2008/09：油价飙升推升通胀，金融危机爆发，美联储货币政策的首要任务在于救市，通胀不在其重点关注范围内。\n当前的通胀和1973-1982年通胀的成因较为相似，均为成本推动。\n\n本次通胀飙升的主要原因在于疫情下的基数效应和供给短缺。今年5月美国CPI录得5.0%(为2008年8月以来的最高水平)，但是从CPI指数角度，2021年5月相对于2019年5月的复合增速仅为2.5%。\n对于今年通胀的演绎，我们重点关注二手车和房租两个分项。\n通胀的主要推力之一为二手车。东南亚疫情恶化下多地芯片厂停工，芯片短缺导致车企减产。新车供应不足，二手车需求剧增，价格飙升(图2)。根据Manheim数据，2021年二手车售价增幅超越新车(图3)。此外，5月其他交通相关的价格涨幅进一步扩大，交通服务价格增幅从4月的5.6%扩大至11.2%，增幅翻倍。\n\n房租价格走势对未来通胀的演绎有重要影响。美国CPI中房租的权重较高(约30%)，尽管相对于其它分项，房租的增速相对温和(今年5月同比增2.2%)，但年初以来增速斜率陡峭化(图4)，我们预计受到供给短缺的影响，未来房租将会持续温和地上升。\n\n通胀预期走势如何?\n从消费者的角度，密西根预期通胀率数据显示，2021年5月美国消费者5年通胀预期从上月的2.7%跳升至3.0%(图5)，但是仍然低于美联储可以容忍的3.5%。\n从政策制定者角度，如我们此前报告所述，美联储注重通胀预期的监测，关键指标为共同通胀预期指数(CIE)，CIE为季度数据，预计2021年二季度的数据将于本月底公布。\n\n未来通胀将会怎样影响资产价格?\n我们复盘了上述四次大通胀中，CPI破4%后不同时间区间内美元、美股和美债收益率的变化(表2)：通胀对于美元、美股存在负面影响，前者较为滞后，后者1个月内即有体现。有趣的是，通胀对于美债收益率的影响不具规律性，关于美债的研究框架，请参考我们此前的报告。\n\n风险提示：美联储过快收紧货币政策，地缘政治风险加剧\n\n恭喜您找到了字母E，参与《老虎大搜查》活动，下帖留言“ Tiger is here” 即可获赠100虎币，如集齐7张图片并留言，还可获赠7周年限定礼盒。（详情请点击【七周年有奖活动】老虎大搜查 了解）","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{".DJI":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2889,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":181409928,"gmtCreate":1623404660764,"gmtModify":1704202690616,"author":{"id":"3494282548206344","authorId":"3494282548206344","name":"李菲特","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/400c37df7718cdcde0948e6e9b83f30c","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3494282548206344","idStr":"3494282548206344"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Tiger is here","listText":"Tiger is here","text":"Tiger is here","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/181409928","repostId":"110267641","repostType":1,"repost":{"id":110267641,"gmtCreate":1622461531680,"gmtModify":1704184732139,"author":{"id":"3539180379992057","authorId":"3539180379992057","name":"骚话连篇","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3539180379992057","idStr":"3539180379992057"},"themes":[],"title":"三孩生育政策爆笑段子汇总","htmlText":"今天下午各個微信羣達成了空前絕後的話題統一，無論是遊戲羣媒體羣炒股羣還是同學羣水友羣全在聊三娃，思路非常廣泛，當然，比思路更廣泛的是表情包，潛水一下午收購不少，逗您一樂就點個讚唄。 這個消息發佈後羣全都炸了 居然是一套組合拳 先滿上（指倉位 最大輸家杜蕾斯 6胎政策警告 綠化政策配三胎政策 看的更長遠 靈魂的疑問 順口溜都出來了 對王之王 年輕人的想法就是特別賦能 不想當生產隊的驢 可以當生產隊的豬 大家聊的都挺開心的啊 劇本都不敢這麼編 答辯生最慘 有的人已經提前完成任務了 人大點贊 請看下圖 請看上圖 請看歷史上的三胎 買房參考 房子不夠不要緊 車座不夠不要緊 深謀遠慮 三胎概念要從娃娃抓起 一步到位吧 恭喜您找到了TRADE，參與《老虎大搜查》活動，下帖留言“ Tiger is here” 即可獲贈100虎幣，如集齊7張圖片並留言，還可獲贈7週年限定禮盒。（詳情請點擊<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/TW/181890541\" target=\"_blank\">【七週年有獎活動】老虎大搜查</a> 瞭解）","listText":"今天下午各個微信羣達成了空前絕後的話題統一，無論是遊戲羣媒體羣炒股羣還是同學羣水友羣全在聊三娃，思路非常廣泛，當然，比思路更廣泛的是表情包，潛水一下午收購不少，逗您一樂就點個讚唄。 這個消息發佈後羣全都炸了 居然是一套組合拳 先滿上（指倉位 最大輸家杜蕾斯 6胎政策警告 綠化政策配三胎政策 看的更長遠 靈魂的疑問 順口溜都出來了 對王之王 年輕人的想法就是特別賦能 不想當生產隊的驢 可以當生產隊的豬 大家聊的都挺開心的啊 劇本都不敢這麼編 答辯生最慘 有的人已經提前完成任務了 人大點贊 請看下圖 請看上圖 請看歷史上的三胎 買房參考 房子不夠不要緊 車座不夠不要緊 深謀遠慮 三胎概念要從娃娃抓起 一步到位吧 恭喜您找到了TRADE，參與《老虎大搜查》活動，下帖留言“ Tiger is here” 即可獲贈100虎幣，如集齊7張圖片並留言，還可獲贈7週年限定禮盒。（詳情請點擊<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/TW/181890541\" target=\"_blank\">【七週年有獎活動】老虎大搜查</a> 瞭解）","text":"今天下午各個微信羣達成了空前絕後的話題統一，無論是遊戲羣媒體羣炒股羣還是同學羣水友羣全在聊三娃，思路非常廣泛，當然，比思路更廣泛的是表情包，潛水一下午收購不少，逗您一樂就點個讚唄。 這個消息發佈後羣全都炸了 居然是一套組合拳 先滿上（指倉位 最大輸家杜蕾斯 6胎政策警告 綠化政策配三胎政策 看的更長遠 靈魂的疑問 順口溜都出來了 對王之王 年輕人的想法就是特別賦能 不想當生產隊的驢 可以當生產隊的豬 大家聊的都挺開心的啊 劇本都不敢這麼編 答辯生最慘 有的人已經提前完成任務了 人大點贊 請看下圖 請看上圖 請看歷史上的三胎 買房參考 房子不夠不要緊 車座不夠不要緊 深謀遠慮 三胎概念要從娃娃抓起 一步到位吧 恭喜您找到了TRADE，參與《老虎大搜查》活動，下帖留言“ Tiger is here” 即可獲贈100虎幣，如集齊7張圖片並留言，還可獲贈7週年限定禮盒。（詳情請點擊【七週年有獎活動】老虎大搜查 瞭解）","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/12c29d23ac709607d32424e7bc1bb84b","width":"936","height":"755"},{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c0000e466c06eeada1808a8b608b34b2","width":"1080","height":"310"},{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/dd51b3bb89aeb118e8505eae89a9b722","width":"705","height":"870"}],"top":1,"highlighted":2,"essential":2,"paper":2,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/110267641","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":0,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":28,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2489,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":181400724,"gmtCreate":1623404646268,"gmtModify":1704202691098,"author":{"id":"3494282548206344","authorId":"3494282548206344","name":"李菲特","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/400c37df7718cdcde0948e6e9b83f30c","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3494282548206344","idStr":"3494282548206344"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Tiger is here","listText":"Tiger is here","text":"Tiger is here","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/181400724","repostId":"181805892","repostType":1,"repost":{"id":181805892,"gmtCreate":1623382395716,"gmtModify":1704202152243,"author":{"id":"3451627561239325","authorId":"3451627561239325","name":"漫投资","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/84032dec87e05e119903d285a35661a1","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3451627561239325","idStr":"3451627561239325"},"themes":[],"title":"意不意外？开不开心？","htmlText":"&nbsp; &nbsp; 全球投資者都在關注美國5月CPI數據終於公佈了，5月CPI同比5%（預期4.7%），核心CPI同比3.8%（預期3.5%），隨時是2008年之後最高，但是預期本身就很高啊，高就對了，最終數據也沒有超預期太多。而且看來市場是認同通脹是暫時的，隨着經濟的逐步恢復，通脹就會降下啦。那還遲疑啥，衝新高吧，咱們得讓睡王在歐洲各國首腦面前蹦有面子不是。標普新高了，納指也在衝新高的路上。就是這麼Happy，好好享受這波行情吧。 週四還公佈了首次申請救濟人數37.6萬人，續請失業救濟人數349.9萬，都在持續下降。這兩天看報道說是美國主動離職率不降反升，人們由於疫情的原因或是子女的原因，傾向於比較自由的工作方式，part time 或者freelance，又是利好upwork這類平臺。 說到找工作，Boss直聘今天IPO，發行價17-19，市值得有80億，是真tm的高啊，但我還是打新了，Boss走到上市不容易，趙鵬最早做的是看準網，一直起不來，14年做了boss直聘，那幾年感覺做招聘的互聯網創業公司真的很多，14-18年，中國創投圈最熱的幾年，錢多，創業的人更多，公司多了，對應的招聘需求爆發時增長，傳統的智聯招聘、前程無憂和51job，都不能滿足互聯網圈的招聘需求，當時新出來的招聘公司有拉鉤，內推，100offer，獵聘，boss直聘幾十家，都要趁着創業浪潮，想幹翻傳統招聘公司三座大山。現在三座大山退市的退市，被收購的被收購，創業公司活下來的也沒幾家。 Boss直聘最後能跑出來就不錯了，MAU能到3千萬，這是什麼概念，一個頻次這麼低的APP用戶量能這麼大，就和電商戰爭已經結束時，拼多多卻靠發展五環用戶一個套路啊。就喜歡這種行業攪局者，支持他們，**老大哥！ Netflix發佈Netflix.shop，開始賣劇的周邊了，限量版，大IP，設計師聯名，妥妥的粉絲經濟。","listText":"&nbsp; &nbsp; 全球投資者都在關注美國5月CPI數據終於公佈了，5月CPI同比5%（預期4.7%），核心CPI同比3.8%（預期3.5%），隨時是2008年之後最高，但是預期本身就很高啊，高就對了，最終數據也沒有超預期太多。而且看來市場是認同通脹是暫時的，隨着經濟的逐步恢復，通脹就會降下啦。那還遲疑啥，衝新高吧，咱們得讓睡王在歐洲各國首腦面前蹦有面子不是。標普新高了，納指也在衝新高的路上。就是這麼Happy，好好享受這波行情吧。 週四還公佈了首次申請救濟人數37.6萬人，續請失業救濟人數349.9萬，都在持續下降。這兩天看報道說是美國主動離職率不降反升，人們由於疫情的原因或是子女的原因，傾向於比較自由的工作方式，part time 或者freelance，又是利好upwork這類平臺。 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Netflix發佈Netflix.shop，開始賣劇的周邊了，限量版，大IP，設計師聯名，妥妥的粉絲經濟。","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b885e850167e51210d6b7b26c9003c85","width":"1315","height":"680"}],"top":1,"highlighted":2,"essential":2,"paper":2,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/181805892","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":0,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":3,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2554,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":181400433,"gmtCreate":1623404632422,"gmtModify":1704202690292,"author":{"id":"3494282548206344","authorId":"3494282548206344","name":"李菲特","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/400c37df7718cdcde0948e6e9b83f30c","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3494282548206344","idStr":"3494282548206344"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Tiger is here","listText":"Tiger is here","text":"Tiger is here","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/181400433","repostId":"180565197","repostType":1,"repost":{"id":180565197,"gmtCreate":1623213155015,"gmtModify":1704198497525,"author":{"id":"3514329116425907","authorId":"3514329116425907","name":"小虎AV","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/91101bd3142b32495c3131036d5f8afa","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3514329116425907","idStr":"3514329116425907"},"themes":[],"title":"【直播预告】看老虎7周年直播，赢全球限量大礼包！","htmlText":"端午節將至，A醬提前預祝各位虎友們端午節快樂又安康！今天，A醬還將告訴大家一個好消息~ 自2014年成立以來，老虎已經陪伴虎友一起走過了7年時光，爲了回饋大家的支持與信賴，也爲了讓我們與虎友們彼此有更多的瞭解與溝通；6月12日，我們將在北京舉辦Open&nbsp;Day&nbsp;見面會，屆時社區將爲無法來到現場相聚的虎友們同步進行線上直播! 同時，我們也將在直播間進行抽獎活動： 【抽獎環節】：本次Open&nbsp;Day直播共有四輪抽獎環節，主持人會在15：00、16：00、17：00、17：40四個時間節點在直播間進行提問，參與搶答問題的虎友將有機會贏得老虎全球限量大禮包！ 【抽獎地址】老虎直播間：<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/RN?name=RNLive&amp;rndata={&quot;liveId&quot;:&quot;16226253307800&quot;}\" target=\"_blank\">老虎七週年：在全球與你不期而遇</a> 【抽獎時間】6月12日15：00、16：00、17：00、17：40； 【活動獎品】：老虎7週年全球限量大禮包 【抽獎規則】：每輪抽獎主持人提問或發出口令後，虎友們需要第一時間在直播間評論區敲出答案獲對應口令，工作人員將隨機截取3位回答正確的幸運觀衆，送出老虎7週年全球限量大禮包哦~ 【獎品發放】中獎名單將當場公佈，屆時中獎的虎友請主動添加<a target=\"_blank\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/U/20722186463466\">@愛發紅包的虎妞</a> 微信領取獎品，微信號是tigerbrokers。 Open&nbsp;Day直播將於北京時間6月12日下午14：00正式開始，虎友可以通過以下幾種方式觀看直播 觀看方式1：預約直播入口：&nbsp;","listText":"端午節將至，A醬提前預祝各位虎友們端午節快樂又安康！今天，A醬還將告訴大家一個好消息~ 自2014年成立以來，老虎已經陪伴虎友一起走過了7年時光，爲了回饋大家的支持與信賴，也爲了讓我們與虎友們彼此有更多的瞭解與溝通；6月12日，我們將在北京舉辦Open&nbsp;Day&nbsp;見面會，屆時社區將爲無法來到現場相聚的虎友們同步進行線上直播! 同時，我們也將在直播間進行抽獎活動： 【抽獎環節】：本次Open&nbsp;Day直播共有四輪抽獎環節，主持人會在15：00、16：00、17：00、17：40四個時間節點在直播間進行提問，參與搶答問題的虎友將有機會贏得老虎全球限量大禮包！ 【抽獎地址】老虎直播間：<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/RN?name=RNLive&amp;rndata={&quot;liveId&quot;:&quot;16226253307800&quot;}\" target=\"_blank\">老虎七週年：在全球與你不期而遇</a> 【抽獎時間】6月12日15：00、16：00、17：00、17：40； 【活動獎品】：老虎7週年全球限量大禮包 【抽獎規則】：每輪抽獎主持人提問或發出口令後，虎友們需要第一時間在直播間評論區敲出答案獲對應口令，工作人員將隨機截取3位回答正確的幸運觀衆，送出老虎7週年全球限量大禮包哦~ 【獎品發放】中獎名單將當場公佈，屆時中獎的虎友請主動添加<a target=\"_blank\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/U/20722186463466\">@愛發紅包的虎妞</a> 微信領取獎品，微信號是tigerbrokers。 Open&nbsp;Day直播將於北京時間6月12日下午14：00正式開始，虎友可以通過以下幾種方式觀看直播 觀看方式1：預約直播入口：&nbsp;","text":"端午節將至，A醬提前預祝各位虎友們端午節快樂又安康！今天，A醬還將告訴大家一個好消息~ 自2014年成立以來，老虎已經陪伴虎友一起走過了7年時光，爲了回饋大家的支持與信賴，也爲了讓我們與虎友們彼此有更多的瞭解與溝通；6月12日，我們將在北京舉辦Open Day 見面會，屆時社區將爲無法來到現場相聚的虎友們同步進行線上直播! 同時，我們也將在直播間進行抽獎活動： 【抽獎環節】：本次Open Day直播共有四輪抽獎環節，主持人會在15：00、16：00、17：00、17：40四個時間節點在直播間進行提問，參與搶答問題的虎友將有機會贏得老虎全球限量大禮包！ 【抽獎地址】老虎直播間：老虎七週年：在全球與你不期而遇 【抽獎時間】6月12日15：00、16：00、17：00、17：40； 【活動獎品】：老虎7週年全球限量大禮包 【抽獎規則】：每輪抽獎主持人提問或發出口令後，虎友們需要第一時間在直播間評論區敲出答案獲對應口令，工作人員將隨機截取3位回答正確的幸運觀衆，送出老虎7週年全球限量大禮包哦~ 【獎品發放】中獎名單將當場公佈，屆時中獎的虎友請主動添加@愛發紅包的虎妞 微信領取獎品，微信號是tigerbrokers。 Open Day直播將於北京時間6月12日下午14：00正式開始，虎友可以通過以下幾種方式觀看直播 觀看方式1：預約直播入口：","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/79fc836f70c1b20a51b0e51e5c7468ba","width":"340","height":"340"},{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b6c5a0f4692227c31def72bb08e3f3c0","width":"751","height":"422"},{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7c6d4bfeef80b0a7daa0346a11662f0c","width":"553","height":"737"}],"top":1,"highlighted":2,"essential":2,"paper":2,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/180565197","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":0,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":4,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":3333,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":181400686,"gmtCreate":1623404621545,"gmtModify":1704202690131,"author":{"id":"3494282548206344","authorId":"3494282548206344","name":"李菲特","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/400c37df7718cdcde0948e6e9b83f30c","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3494282548206344","idStr":"3494282548206344"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Tiger is here","listText":"Tiger is here","text":"Tiger is here","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/181400686","repostId":"183695030","repostType":1,"repost":{"id":183695030,"gmtCreate":1623326880616,"gmtModify":1704200932765,"author":{"id":"3510558082622800","authorId":"3510558082622800","name":"胖虎哒哒","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/75b95d9326c02813b7b87ba8c1eccb5a","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3510558082622800","idStr":"3510558082622800"},"themes":[],"title":"数字外包商TaskUs上市，内容审核是门好生意吗？","htmlText":"審覈對於大家來說應該都不陌生，不論海內外但凡具備一定社交屬性的平臺都有審覈的需求，那麼內容審覈有多掙錢？審覈外包是門好生意嗎？一起來看下垂類審覈第一股<a target=\"_blank\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TASK\">$TaskUs Inc.(TASK)$</a> 的招股書都透露了哪些信息？ 招股信息： 股票代碼：<a target=\"_blank\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TASK\">$TaskUs Inc.(TASK)$</a> 上市時間：6月12日 發行規模：1320萬股 發行價格：22-24美元 估值：23億美元 募資規模：3.04億美元 募資用途：用於一般公司用途，其中可能包括但不限於未來的收購。 主承銷商：高盛、摩根大通 機構持倉：雖然招股書上寫task的大股東是公司供應商，但是實控人其實是黑石集團，前持股比例67.2%。 業務：客服+審覈+打標籤=大科技公司的貼心助手 Task是一家數字外包商，專注於爲高增長的技術公司提供外包服務，公司的全球全渠道交付模式專注於爲客戶提供三項關鍵服務——數字客戶體驗、內容安全和人工智能運營。 Task號稱是該行業中唯一一家年收入超過 2.5 億美元且有機增長 100% 的公司，這導致運營和文化的一致性，爲未來的有機或無機潛在增長奠定了堅實的基礎。這一戰略幫助 TaskUs 在 2017 年至 2020 年期間實現了 60% 的複合年增長率。 我的好奇點是，他們是如何做到的？ 根據招股書，TaskUs平臺是圍繞以下三種服務產品專門構建和組織的: 數字客戶體驗:主要包括全渠道客戶關懷服務，主要通過數字(非語音)渠道提供。其他解決方案包括新產品或市場發佈的客戶關懷服務，信任和安全解決方案和客戶獲取解決方案。 內容安全:主要包括審查和處置用戶和廣告商產生的內容，其中包括","listText":"審覈對於大家來說應該都不陌生，不論海內外但凡具備一定社交屬性的平臺都有審覈的需求，那麼內容審覈有多掙錢？審覈外包是門好生意嗎？一起來看下垂類審覈第一股<a target=\"_blank\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TASK\">$TaskUs Inc.(TASK)$</a> 的招股書都透露了哪些信息？ 招股信息： 股票代碼：<a target=\"_blank\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TASK\">$TaskUs Inc.(TASK)$</a> 上市時間：6月12日 發行規模：1320萬股 發行價格：22-24美元 估值：23億美元 募資規模：3.04億美元 募資用途：用於一般公司用途，其中可能包括但不限於未來的收購。 主承銷商：高盛、摩根大通 機構持倉：雖然招股書上寫task的大股東是公司供應商，但是實控人其實是黑石集團，前持股比例67.2%。 業務：客服+審覈+打標籤=大科技公司的貼心助手 Task是一家數字外包商，專注於爲高增長的技術公司提供外包服務，公司的全球全渠道交付模式專注於爲客戶提供三項關鍵服務——數字客戶體驗、內容安全和人工智能運營。 Task號稱是該行業中唯一一家年收入超過 2.5 億美元且有機增長 100% 的公司，這導致運營和文化的一致性，爲未來的有機或無機潛在增長奠定了堅實的基礎。這一戰略幫助 TaskUs 在 2017 年至 2020 年期間實現了 60% 的複合年增長率。 我的好奇點是，他們是如何做到的？ 根據招股書，TaskUs平臺是圍繞以下三種服務產品專門構建和組織的: 數字客戶體驗:主要包括全渠道客戶關懷服務，主要通過數字(非語音)渠道提供。其他解決方案包括新產品或市場發佈的客戶關懷服務，信任和安全解決方案和客戶獲取解決方案。 內容安全:主要包括審查和處置用戶和廣告商產生的內容，其中包括","text":"審覈對於大家來說應該都不陌生，不論海內外但凡具備一定社交屬性的平臺都有審覈的需求，那麼內容審覈有多掙錢？審覈外包是門好生意嗎？一起來看下垂類審覈第一股$TaskUs Inc.(TASK)$ 的招股書都透露了哪些信息？ 招股信息： 股票代碼：$TaskUs Inc.(TASK)$ 上市時間：6月12日 發行規模：1320萬股 發行價格：22-24美元 估值：23億美元 募資規模：3.04億美元 募資用途：用於一般公司用途，其中可能包括但不限於未來的收購。 主承銷商：高盛、摩根大通 機構持倉：雖然招股書上寫task的大股東是公司供應商，但是實控人其實是黑石集團，前持股比例67.2%。 業務：客服+審覈+打標籤=大科技公司的貼心助手 Task是一家數字外包商，專注於爲高增長的技術公司提供外包服務，公司的全球全渠道交付模式專注於爲客戶提供三項關鍵服務——數字客戶體驗、內容安全和人工智能運營。 Task號稱是該行業中唯一一家年收入超過 2.5 億美元且有機增長 100% 的公司，這導致運營和文化的一致性，爲未來的有機或無機潛在增長奠定了堅實的基礎。這一戰略幫助 TaskUs 在 2017 年至 2020 年期間實現了 60% 的複合年增長率。 我的好奇點是，他們是如何做到的？ 根據招股書，TaskUs平臺是圍繞以下三種服務產品專門構建和組織的: 數字客戶體驗:主要包括全渠道客戶關懷服務，主要通過數字(非語音)渠道提供。其他解決方案包括新產品或市場發佈的客戶關懷服務，信任和安全解決方案和客戶獲取解決方案。 內容安全:主要包括審查和處置用戶和廣告商產生的內容，其中包括","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/73d3c70a45208e1f747edd2df6f3b063","width":"1197","height":"331"},{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c6b8e35bf9b35a4d9581832ab1aac944","width":"1532","height":"622"},{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/09e62f1a0cdd801336422d9c75063fb5","width":"1039","height":"489"}],"top":1,"highlighted":2,"essential":2,"paper":2,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/183695030","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":0,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":8,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2298,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":181400158,"gmtCreate":1623404601074,"gmtModify":1704202689970,"author":{"id":"3494282548206344","authorId":"3494282548206344","name":"李菲特","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/400c37df7718cdcde0948e6e9b83f30c","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3494282548206344","idStr":"3494282548206344"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Tiger is here","listText":"Tiger is here","text":"Tiger is here","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/181400158","repostId":"180747508","repostType":1,"repost":{"id":180747508,"gmtCreate":1623229412300,"gmtModify":1704198820906,"author":{"id":"3480300888703096","authorId":"3480300888703096","name":"荒野侦探","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/676ca151c5979a45c1864347e2da198a","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3480300888703096","idStr":"3480300888703096"},"themes":[],"title":"【财富密码】WSB新宠：CLOV，WISH，WEN，SOFI","htmlText":"最早是<a target=\"_blank\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/GME\">$遊戲驛站(GME)$</a> ，<a target=\"_blank\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AMC\">$AMC院線(AMC)$</a> ，<a target=\"_blank\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BB\">$黑莓(BB)$</a> ， 之後是<a target=\"_blank\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/KOSS\">$高斯電子(KOSS)$</a> ，<a target=\"_blank\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/SNDL\">$Sundial Growers Inc.(SNDL)$</a> ，<a target=\"_blank\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/EXPR\">$Express(EXPR)$</a> 、<a target=\"_blank\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BBBY\">$3B家居(BBBY)$</a> ，<a target=\"_blank\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NAKD\">$Naked Brand Group Inc(NAKD)$</a> ， 最新是<a target=\"_blank\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/CLOV\">$Clover Health Corp(CLOV)$</a> （昨天漲85.8%），<a target=\"_blank\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/WISH\">$ContextLogic Inc.(WISH)$</a> （昨天漲49.9%盤後繼續飆升），","listText":"最早是<a target=\"_blank\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/GME\">$遊戲驛站(GME)$</a> ，<a target=\"_blank\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AMC\">$AMC院線(AMC)$</a> ，<a target=\"_blank\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BB\">$黑莓(BB)$</a> ， 之後是<a target=\"_blank\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/KOSS\">$高斯電子(KOSS)$</a> ，<a target=\"_blank\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/SNDL\">$Sundial Growers Inc.(SNDL)$</a> ，<a target=\"_blank\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/EXPR\">$Express(EXPR)$</a> 、<a target=\"_blank\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BBBY\">$3B家居(BBBY)$</a> ，<a target=\"_blank\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NAKD\">$Naked Brand Group Inc(NAKD)$</a> ， 最新是<a target=\"_blank\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/CLOV\">$Clover Health Corp(CLOV)$</a> （昨天漲85.8%），<a target=\"_blank\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/WISH\">$ContextLogic Inc.(WISH)$</a> （昨天漲49.9%盤後繼續飆升），","text":"最早是$遊戲驛站(GME)$ ，$AMC院線(AMC)$ ，$黑莓(BB)$ ， 之後是$高斯電子(KOSS)$ ，$Sundial Growers Inc.(SNDL)$ ，$Express(EXPR)$ 、$3B家居(BBBY)$ ，$Naked Brand Group Inc(NAKD)$ ， 最新是$Clover Health Corp(CLOV)$ （昨天漲85.8%），$ContextLogic Inc.(WISH)$ （昨天漲49.9%盤後繼續飆升），","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0eed97d8142aedbd32ebfa1d62eef481","width":"214","height":"286"},{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/edd7cd1d8a76129decfa04a788dc1751","width":"1812","height":"681"},{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/888266736d30be99dcde9500be3b6c72","width":"1281","height":"721"}],"top":1,"highlighted":2,"essential":2,"paper":2,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/180747508","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":0,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":6,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2791,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":181577809,"gmtCreate":1623404531301,"gmtModify":1704202688515,"author":{"id":"3494282548206344","authorId":"3494282548206344","name":"李菲特","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/400c37df7718cdcde0948e6e9b83f30c","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3494282548206344","idStr":"3494282548206344"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Tiger is here","listText":"Tiger is here","text":"Tiger is here","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/181577809","repostId":"1140839418","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"1140839418","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1623382205,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1140839418?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2021-06-11 11:30","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"One picture to understand Didi's prospectus: spread across 15 countries, with an average daily order volume of 41 million","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1140839418","media":"腾讯科技","summary":"6月11日消息，美国当地时间周四，$滴滴出行 $的运营主体小桔快智向美国证券交易委员会提交了IPO招股书，计划在纳斯达克股票市场或纽约证券交易所挂牌上市，股票代码为“DIDI”。根据滴滴披露的数据显示，目前滴滴已经在15个国家的4000多个城市和地区开通业务，年活跃用户数量4.93亿，年活跃司机数量1500万，日均单量4100万，年平台交易总额3410亿元，2018年至2021年Q1累计司机收入6000+亿元。","content":"<p>June 11th news, Thursday local time in the United States,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/DIDI\">Didi Chuxing</a>Xiaoju Kuaizhi, the operating entity, submitted an IPO prospectus to the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC), and plans to be listed on the Nasdaq stock market or the New York Stock Exchange with the stock code \"DIDI\".</p><p>According to the data disclosed by Didi, at present, Didi has opened business in more than 4,000 cities and regions in 15 countries, with an annual number of active users of 493 million, an annual number of active drivers of 15 million, an average daily order volume of 41 million, a total annual platform transaction volume of 341 billion yuan, and a cumulative driver income of 600+ billion yuan from 2018 to Q1 of 2021.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2a935c6b681f2f3744604b5596e29cac\" tg-width=\"2100\" tg-height=\"13686\"></p><p><hr>Congratulations on finding the letter I and participating in the \"Tiger Search\" activity. If you leave a message \"Tiger is here\" in the next post, you can get 100 Tiger coins. If you collect 7 pictures and leave a message, you can also get a 7th anniversary limited gift box. (For details, please click<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/TW/181890541\" target=\"_blank\">[7th Anniversary Award-winning Activity] Tiger Search</a>Understanding)<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ba72fe98df37f49a4d31b0a0684a03aa\" tg-width=\"214\" tg-height=\"286\"></p>","source":"txkj","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>One picture to understand Didi's prospectus: spread across 15 countries, with an average daily order volume of 41 million</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nOne picture to understand Didi's prospectus: spread across 15 countries, with an average daily order volume of 41 million\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">腾讯科技</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-06-11 11:30</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>June 11th news, Thursday local time in the United States,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/DIDI\">Didi Chuxing</a>Xiaoju Kuaizhi, the operating entity, submitted an IPO prospectus to the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC), and plans to be listed on the Nasdaq stock market or the New York Stock Exchange with the stock code \"DIDI\".</p><p>According to the data disclosed by Didi, at present, Didi has opened business in more than 4,000 cities and regions in 15 countries, with an annual number of active users of 493 million, an annual number of active drivers of 15 million, an average daily order volume of 41 million, a total annual platform transaction volume of 341 billion yuan, and a cumulative driver income of 600+ billion yuan from 2018 to Q1 of 2021.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2a935c6b681f2f3744604b5596e29cac\" tg-width=\"2100\" tg-height=\"13686\"></p><p><hr>Congratulations on finding the letter I and participating in the \"Tiger Search\" activity. If you leave a message \"Tiger is here\" in the next post, you can get 100 Tiger coins. If you collect 7 pictures and leave a message, you can also get a 7th anniversary limited gift box. (For details, please click<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/TW/181890541\" target=\"_blank\">[7th Anniversary Award-winning Activity] Tiger Search</a>Understanding)<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ba72fe98df37f49a4d31b0a0684a03aa\" tg-width=\"214\" tg-height=\"286\"></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> source：<a href=\"https://new.qq.com/rain/a/20210611A02NC800\">腾讯科技</a></p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b9f14473f3e986de32cc80f6fd80b679","relate_stocks":{"DIDI":"滴滴(已退市)"},"source_url":"https://new.qq.com/rain/a/20210611A02NC800","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1140839418","content_text":"6月11日消息，美国当地时间周四，滴滴出行的运营主体小桔快智向美国证券交易委员会（SEC）提交了IPO招股书，计划在纳斯达克股票市场或纽约证券交易所挂牌上市，股票代码为“DIDI”。\n根据滴滴披露的数据显示，目前滴滴已经在15个国家的4000多个城市和地区开通业务，年活跃用户数量4.93亿，年活跃司机数量1500万，日均单量4100万，年平台交易总额3410亿元，2018年至2021年Q1累计司机收入6000+亿元。\n\n\n恭喜您找到了字母I，参与《老虎大搜查》活动，下帖留言“ Tiger is here” 即可获赠100虎币，如集齐7张图片并留言，还可获赠7周年限定礼盒。（详情请点击【七周年有奖活动】老虎大搜查 了解）","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"DIDI":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2340,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":181577019,"gmtCreate":1623404503931,"gmtModify":1704202687871,"author":{"id":"3494282548206344","authorId":"3494282548206344","name":"李菲特","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/400c37df7718cdcde0948e6e9b83f30c","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3494282548206344","idStr":"3494282548206344"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Tiger is here","listText":"Tiger is here","text":"Tiger is here","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/181577019","repostId":"1156453091","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"1156453091","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1623333482,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1156453091?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2021-06-10 21:58","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"Taking history as a mirror, the deduction and impact of inflation soaring in the United States","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1156453091","media":"川阅全球宏观","summary":"美国东部时间2021年6月10日，美国劳工部发布5月通胀数据。美国5月CPI同比升5.0%、核心CPI同比升3.8%，创2008年8月以来最大增幅。今年年初以来，美国通胀率加速上升，美联储6月议息会议在即，市场上通胀担忧挥之不去。我们回顾了历史上美国通胀的几次飙升，以便更好地理解本次的通胀及其影响：。1960年以来美国CPI同比破5%出现了4次(图1)。本次通胀飙升的主要原因在于疫情下的基数效应和供给短缺。房租价格走势对未来通胀的演绎有重要影响。","content":"<p>On June 10, 2021 EDT, the U.S. Department of Labor released inflation data for May.<b>In May, the CPI of the United States rose by 5.0% year-on-year, and the core CPI rose by 3.8% year-on-year, the largest increase since August 2008. Since the beginning of this year, the inflation rate in the United States has accelerated, and the Federal Reserve's interest rate meeting in June is imminent. Inflation worries in the market linger.</b>We have reviewed several spikes in U.S. inflation throughout history to better understand this one and its impact:</p><p><b>Since 1960, the U.S. CPI has broken 5% year-on-year four times</b>(FIG. 1). We conducted a review of the economic fundamentals and Fed policy from the period when CPI broke 4%, broke 5% and retreated (Table 1).</p><p><b>1968/06-1971/09</b>: The economy is in recession, but the residual warmth of large government spending and fiscal stimulus in the early period is still there, and inflation continues to rise. The Federal Reserve tightened monetary policy in 1970 to curb inflation.</p><p><b>1973/03-1982/11：</b>Under the double blow of the food crisis and the oil crisis, the US economy fell into stagflation, and supply shocks and costs pushed up inflation. Government price controls failed and monetary policy lacked independence and was too lagging to successfully curb inflation.</p><p><b>1987/08-1991/07：</b>After emerging from stagflation, the U.S. economy experienced high growth, but began to slow down in 1987, and there was upward pressure on wages and prices, and the Federal Reserve tightened monetary policy.</p><p><b>2007/11-2008/09：</b>The soaring oil price pushed up inflation, and the financial crisis broke out. The first task of the Federal Reserve's monetary policy was to bail out the market, and inflation was not in its focus.</p><p><b>The causes of current inflation are similar to those of 1973-1982 inflation, both of which are cost-driven.</b></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/327f6f12c3af30abee8fa0ae334f9763\" tg-width=\"1006\" tg-height=\"611\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0ca353ebcbaf95ba1da0b46a815d5f8b\" tg-width=\"1025\" tg-height=\"853\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><b>The main reason for this surge in inflation lies in the base effect and supply shortage under the pandemic.</b>The US CPI recorded 5.0% in May this year (the highest level since August 2008), but<b>From the perspective of CPI index, the compound growth rate in May 2021 relative to May 2019 was only 2.5%.</b></p><p><b>For this year's deduction of inflation, we focus on the two sub-items of used cars and rent.</b></p><p><b>One of the main thrust forces for inflation is used cars.</b>Under the deterioration of the epidemic situation in Southeast Asia, many chip factories shut down, and the shortage of chips led to the reduction of production by car companies. The supply of new cars is insufficient, the demand for used cars has soared, and prices have skyrocketed (Figure 2). According to Manheim data, used vehicle sales prices increased more than new vehicles in 2021 (Figure 3). In addition, other transportation-related price increases widened further in May, with the increase in transportation service prices expanding to 11.2% from 5.6% in April, doubling the increase.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/884ed39a8682a3df05e8411f17f2105c\" tg-width=\"995\" tg-height=\"585\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/599b70f4fadb590d0d7b20254d4b1403\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"738\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><b>The trend of rent prices has an important impact on the deduction of future inflation.</b>The weight of rent in the US CPI is high (about 30%). Although the growth rate of rent is relatively modest compared with other sub-items (2.2% year-on-year in May this year), the growth rate slope has steepened since the beginning of the year (Figure 4).<b>It is expected that rent will continue to rise moderately in the future, affected by supply shortages</b>。</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/869c4f313152d3a14769097f150fb674\" tg-width=\"1021\" tg-height=\"644\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><b>What is the trend of inflation expectations?</b></p><p>From a consumer perspective, Michigan's expected inflation data shows that 2<b>In May 2021, the five-year inflation expectation of U.S. consumers jumped to 3.0% from 2.7% last month (Figure 5), but it is still lower than the 3.5% that the Federal Reserve can tolerate.</b></p><p>From the perspective of policymakers, as stated in our previous report, the Fed focuses on the monitoring of inflation expectations, and the key indicators are<b>Common Inflation Expectations Index (CIE), CIE is quarterly data, and data for the second quarter of 2021 is expected to be released by the end of this month.</b></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/21708bec0c792eb9299eda62ba3cd077\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"666\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><b>How will future inflation affect asset prices?</b></p><p>We review the changes of the yields of US dollars, US stocks and US bonds in different time intervals after CPI broke 4% in the above four major inflations (Table 2):<b>Inflation has a negative impact on the US dollar and US stocks. The former lags behind, while the latter is reflected within one month.</b>Interestingly, the impact of inflation on US debt yields is irregular. For the research framework of US debt, please refer to our previous report.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/037d9e565ff952b13c942386e8d08506\" tg-width=\"1059\" tg-height=\"599\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><b>Risk warning:</b>Geopolitical risks mount as Fed tightens monetary policy too quickly</p><p><hr>Congratulations on finding the letter E and participating in the \"Tiger Search\" activity. If you leave a message \"Tiger is here\" in the next post, you can get 100 Tiger coins. If you collect 7 pictures and leave a message, you can also get a 7th anniversary limited gift box. (For details, please click<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/TW/181890541\" target=\"_blank\">[7th Anniversary Award-winning Activity] Tiger Search</a>Understanding)</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b519142d901e1ef1ff2a2e443798687b\" tg-width=\"214\" tg-height=\"286\"></p>","source":"lsy1582083733592","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Taking history as a mirror, the deduction and impact of inflation soaring in the United States</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nTaking history as a mirror, the deduction and impact of inflation soaring in the United States\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">川阅全球宏观</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-06-10 21:58</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>On June 10, 2021 EDT, the U.S. Department of Labor released inflation data for May.<b>In May, the CPI of the United States rose by 5.0% year-on-year, and the core CPI rose by 3.8% year-on-year, the largest increase since August 2008. Since the beginning of this year, the inflation rate in the United States has accelerated, and the Federal Reserve's interest rate meeting in June is imminent. Inflation worries in the market linger.</b>We have reviewed several spikes in U.S. inflation throughout history to better understand this one and its impact:</p><p><b>Since 1960, the U.S. CPI has broken 5% year-on-year four times</b>(FIG. 1). We conducted a review of the economic fundamentals and Fed policy from the period when CPI broke 4%, broke 5% and retreated (Table 1).</p><p><b>1968/06-1971/09</b>: The economy is in recession, but the residual warmth of large government spending and fiscal stimulus in the early period is still there, and inflation continues to rise. The Federal Reserve tightened monetary policy in 1970 to curb inflation.</p><p><b>1973/03-1982/11：</b>Under the double blow of the food crisis and the oil crisis, the US economy fell into stagflation, and supply shocks and costs pushed up inflation. Government price controls failed and monetary policy lacked independence and was too lagging to successfully curb inflation.</p><p><b>1987/08-1991/07：</b>After emerging from stagflation, the U.S. economy experienced high growth, but began to slow down in 1987, and there was upward pressure on wages and prices, and the Federal Reserve tightened monetary policy.</p><p><b>2007/11-2008/09：</b>The soaring oil price pushed up inflation, and the financial crisis broke out. The first task of the Federal Reserve's monetary policy was to bail out the market, and inflation was not in its focus.</p><p><b>The causes of current inflation are similar to those of 1973-1982 inflation, both of which are cost-driven.</b></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/327f6f12c3af30abee8fa0ae334f9763\" tg-width=\"1006\" tg-height=\"611\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0ca353ebcbaf95ba1da0b46a815d5f8b\" tg-width=\"1025\" tg-height=\"853\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><b>The main reason for this surge in inflation lies in the base effect and supply shortage under the pandemic.</b>The US CPI recorded 5.0% in May this year (the highest level since August 2008), but<b>From the perspective of CPI index, the compound growth rate in May 2021 relative to May 2019 was only 2.5%.</b></p><p><b>For this year's deduction of inflation, we focus on the two sub-items of used cars and rent.</b></p><p><b>One of the main thrust forces for inflation is used cars.</b>Under the deterioration of the epidemic situation in Southeast Asia, many chip factories shut down, and the shortage of chips led to the reduction of production by car companies. The supply of new cars is insufficient, the demand for used cars has soared, and prices have skyrocketed (Figure 2). According to Manheim data, used vehicle sales prices increased more than new vehicles in 2021 (Figure 3). In addition, other transportation-related price increases widened further in May, with the increase in transportation service prices expanding to 11.2% from 5.6% in April, doubling the increase.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/884ed39a8682a3df05e8411f17f2105c\" tg-width=\"995\" tg-height=\"585\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/599b70f4fadb590d0d7b20254d4b1403\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"738\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><b>The trend of rent prices has an important impact on the deduction of future inflation.</b>The weight of rent in the US CPI is high (about 30%). Although the growth rate of rent is relatively modest compared with other sub-items (2.2% year-on-year in May this year), the growth rate slope has steepened since the beginning of the year (Figure 4).<b>It is expected that rent will continue to rise moderately in the future, affected by supply shortages</b>。</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/869c4f313152d3a14769097f150fb674\" tg-width=\"1021\" tg-height=\"644\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><b>What is the trend of inflation expectations?</b></p><p>From a consumer perspective, Michigan's expected inflation data shows that 2<b>In May 2021, the five-year inflation expectation of U.S. consumers jumped to 3.0% from 2.7% last month (Figure 5), but it is still lower than the 3.5% that the Federal Reserve can tolerate.</b></p><p>From the perspective of policymakers, as stated in our previous report, the Fed focuses on the monitoring of inflation expectations, and the key indicators are<b>Common Inflation Expectations Index (CIE), CIE is quarterly data, and data for the second quarter of 2021 is expected to be released by the end of this month.</b></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/21708bec0c792eb9299eda62ba3cd077\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"666\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><b>How will future inflation affect asset prices?</b></p><p>We review the changes of the yields of US dollars, US stocks and US bonds in different time intervals after CPI broke 4% in the above four major inflations (Table 2):<b>Inflation has a negative impact on the US dollar and US stocks. The former lags behind, while the latter is reflected within one month.</b>Interestingly, the impact of inflation on US debt yields is irregular. For the research framework of US debt, please refer to our previous report.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/037d9e565ff952b13c942386e8d08506\" tg-width=\"1059\" tg-height=\"599\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><b>Risk warning:</b>Geopolitical risks mount as Fed tightens monetary policy too quickly</p><p><hr>Congratulations on finding the letter E and participating in the \"Tiger Search\" activity. If you leave a message \"Tiger is here\" in the next post, you can get 100 Tiger coins. If you collect 7 pictures and leave a message, you can also get a 7th anniversary limited gift box. (For details, please click<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/TW/181890541\" target=\"_blank\">[7th Anniversary Award-winning Activity] Tiger Search</a>Understanding)</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b519142d901e1ef1ff2a2e443798687b\" tg-width=\"214\" tg-height=\"286\"></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> source：<a href=\"https://www.zhitongcaijing.com/content/detail/492521.html\">川阅全球宏观</a></p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/93c3dba7c4b0e443e40fe6df5639434d","relate_stocks":{".DJI":"道琼斯"},"source_url":"https://www.zhitongcaijing.com/content/detail/492521.html","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1156453091","content_text":"美国东部时间2021年6月10日，美国劳工部发布5月通胀数据。美国5月CPI同比升5.0%、核心CPI同比升3.8%，创2008年8月以来最大增幅。今年年初以来，美国通胀率加速上升，美联储6月议息会议在即，市场上通胀担忧挥之不去。我们回顾了历史上美国通胀的几次飙升，以便更好地理解本次的通胀及其影响：\n1960年以来美国CPI同比破5%出现了4次(图1)。我们对CPI破4%、破5%至回落期间的经济基本面和美联储政策进行了复盘(表1)。\n1968/06-1971/09：经济陷入衰退，但前期大幅政府开支与财政刺激的余温仍在，通胀持续上升，美联储在1970年收紧货币政策以抑制通胀。\n1973/03-1982/11：粮食危机和石油危机的双重打击下，美国经济陷入滞胀，供给冲击与成本推升通胀。政府价格管制失败，货币政策缺乏独立性并且过于滞后，未能成功抑制通胀。\n1987/08-1991/07：走出滞胀后，美国经济经历了高速增长，但1987年开始经济增速放缓，并出现工资和价格上涨压力，美联储收紧货币政策。\n2007/11-2008/09：油价飙升推升通胀，金融危机爆发，美联储货币政策的首要任务在于救市，通胀不在其重点关注范围内。\n当前的通胀和1973-1982年通胀的成因较为相似，均为成本推动。\n\n本次通胀飙升的主要原因在于疫情下的基数效应和供给短缺。今年5月美国CPI录得5.0%(为2008年8月以来的最高水平)，但是从CPI指数角度，2021年5月相对于2019年5月的复合增速仅为2.5%。\n对于今年通胀的演绎，我们重点关注二手车和房租两个分项。\n通胀的主要推力之一为二手车。东南亚疫情恶化下多地芯片厂停工，芯片短缺导致车企减产。新车供应不足，二手车需求剧增，价格飙升(图2)。根据Manheim数据，2021年二手车售价增幅超越新车(图3)。此外，5月其他交通相关的价格涨幅进一步扩大，交通服务价格增幅从4月的5.6%扩大至11.2%，增幅翻倍。\n\n房租价格走势对未来通胀的演绎有重要影响。美国CPI中房租的权重较高(约30%)，尽管相对于其它分项，房租的增速相对温和(今年5月同比增2.2%)，但年初以来增速斜率陡峭化(图4)，我们预计受到供给短缺的影响，未来房租将会持续温和地上升。\n\n通胀预期走势如何?\n从消费者的角度，密西根预期通胀率数据显示，2021年5月美国消费者5年通胀预期从上月的2.7%跳升至3.0%(图5)，但是仍然低于美联储可以容忍的3.5%。\n从政策制定者角度，如我们此前报告所述，美联储注重通胀预期的监测，关键指标为共同通胀预期指数(CIE)，CIE为季度数据，预计2021年二季度的数据将于本月底公布。\n\n未来通胀将会怎样影响资产价格?\n我们复盘了上述四次大通胀中，CPI破4%后不同时间区间内美元、美股和美债收益率的变化(表2)：通胀对于美元、美股存在负面影响，前者较为滞后，后者1个月内即有体现。有趣的是，通胀对于美债收益率的影响不具规律性，关于美债的研究框架，请参考我们此前的报告。\n\n风险提示：美联储过快收紧货币政策，地缘政治风险加剧\n\n恭喜您找到了字母E，参与《老虎大搜查》活动，下帖留言“ Tiger is here” 即可获赠100虎币，如集齐7张图片并留言，还可获赠7周年限定礼盒。（详情请点击【七周年有奖活动】老虎大搜查 了解）","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{".DJI":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2631,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":181288268,"gmtCreate":1623396458754,"gmtModify":1704202478170,"author":{"id":"3494282548206344","authorId":"3494282548206344","name":"李菲特","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/400c37df7718cdcde0948e6e9b83f30c","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3494282548206344","idStr":"3494282548206344"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Tiger is here！","listText":"Tiger is here！","text":"Tiger is here！","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/181288268","repostId":"1156453091","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"1156453091","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1623333482,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1156453091?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2021-06-10 21:58","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"Taking history as a mirror, the deduction and impact of inflation soaring in the United States","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1156453091","media":"川阅全球宏观","summary":"美国东部时间2021年6月10日，美国劳工部发布5月通胀数据。美国5月CPI同比升5.0%、核心CPI同比升3.8%，创2008年8月以来最大增幅。今年年初以来，美国通胀率加速上升，美联储6月议息会议在即，市场上通胀担忧挥之不去。我们回顾了历史上美国通胀的几次飙升，以便更好地理解本次的通胀及其影响：。1960年以来美国CPI同比破5%出现了4次(图1)。本次通胀飙升的主要原因在于疫情下的基数效应和供给短缺。房租价格走势对未来通胀的演绎有重要影响。","content":"<p>On June 10, 2021 EDT, the U.S. Department of Labor released inflation data for May.<b>In May, the CPI of the United States rose by 5.0% year-on-year, and the core CPI rose by 3.8% year-on-year, the largest increase since August 2008. Since the beginning of this year, the inflation rate in the United States has accelerated, and the Federal Reserve's interest rate meeting in June is imminent. Inflation worries in the market linger.</b>We have reviewed several spikes in U.S. inflation throughout history to better understand this one and its impact:</p><p><b>Since 1960, the U.S. CPI has broken 5% year-on-year four times</b>(FIG. 1). We conducted a review of the economic fundamentals and Fed policy from the period when CPI broke 4%, broke 5% and retreated (Table 1).</p><p><b>1968/06-1971/09</b>: The economy is in recession, but the residual warmth of large government spending and fiscal stimulus in the early period is still there, and inflation continues to rise. The Federal Reserve tightened monetary policy in 1970 to curb inflation.</p><p><b>1973/03-1982/11：</b>Under the double blow of the food crisis and the oil crisis, the US economy fell into stagflation, and supply shocks and costs pushed up inflation. Government price controls failed and monetary policy lacked independence and was too lagging to successfully curb inflation.</p><p><b>1987/08-1991/07：</b>After emerging from stagflation, the U.S. economy experienced high growth, but began to slow down in 1987, and there was upward pressure on wages and prices, and the Federal Reserve tightened monetary policy.</p><p><b>2007/11-2008/09：</b>The soaring oil price pushed up inflation, and the financial crisis broke out. The first task of the Federal Reserve's monetary policy was to bail out the market, and inflation was not in its focus.</p><p><b>The causes of current inflation are similar to those of 1973-1982 inflation, both of which are cost-driven.</b></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/327f6f12c3af30abee8fa0ae334f9763\" tg-width=\"1006\" tg-height=\"611\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0ca353ebcbaf95ba1da0b46a815d5f8b\" tg-width=\"1025\" tg-height=\"853\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><b>The main reason for this surge in inflation lies in the base effect and supply shortage under the pandemic.</b>The US CPI recorded 5.0% in May this year (the highest level since August 2008), but<b>From the perspective of CPI index, the compound growth rate in May 2021 relative to May 2019 was only 2.5%.</b></p><p><b>For this year's deduction of inflation, we focus on the two sub-items of used cars and rent.</b></p><p><b>One of the main thrust forces for inflation is used cars.</b>Under the deterioration of the epidemic situation in Southeast Asia, many chip factories shut down, and the shortage of chips led to the reduction of production by car companies. The supply of new cars is insufficient, the demand for used cars has soared, and prices have skyrocketed (Figure 2). According to Manheim data, used vehicle sales prices increased more than new vehicles in 2021 (Figure 3). In addition, other transportation-related price increases widened further in May, with the increase in transportation service prices expanding to 11.2% from 5.6% in April, doubling the increase.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/884ed39a8682a3df05e8411f17f2105c\" tg-width=\"995\" tg-height=\"585\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/599b70f4fadb590d0d7b20254d4b1403\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"738\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><b>The trend of rent prices has an important impact on the deduction of future inflation.</b>The weight of rent in the US CPI is high (about 30%). Although the growth rate of rent is relatively modest compared with other sub-items (2.2% year-on-year in May this year), the growth rate slope has steepened since the beginning of the year (Figure 4).<b>It is expected that rent will continue to rise moderately in the future, affected by supply shortages</b>。</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/869c4f313152d3a14769097f150fb674\" tg-width=\"1021\" tg-height=\"644\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><b>What is the trend of inflation expectations?</b></p><p>From a consumer perspective, Michigan's expected inflation data shows that 2<b>In May 2021, the five-year inflation expectation of U.S. consumers jumped to 3.0% from 2.7% last month (Figure 5), but it is still lower than the 3.5% that the Federal Reserve can tolerate.</b></p><p>From the perspective of policymakers, as stated in our previous report, the Fed focuses on the monitoring of inflation expectations, and the key indicators are<b>Common Inflation Expectations Index (CIE), CIE is quarterly data, and data for the second quarter of 2021 is expected to be released by the end of this month.</b></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/21708bec0c792eb9299eda62ba3cd077\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"666\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><b>How will future inflation affect asset prices?</b></p><p>We review the changes of the yields of US dollars, US stocks and US bonds in different time intervals after CPI broke 4% in the above four major inflations (Table 2):<b>Inflation has a negative impact on the US dollar and US stocks. The former lags behind, while the latter is reflected within one month.</b>Interestingly, the impact of inflation on US debt yields is irregular. For the research framework of US debt, please refer to our previous report.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/037d9e565ff952b13c942386e8d08506\" tg-width=\"1059\" tg-height=\"599\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><b>Risk warning:</b>Geopolitical risks mount as Fed tightens monetary policy too quickly</p><p><hr>Congratulations on finding the letter E and participating in the \"Tiger Search\" activity. If you leave a message \"Tiger is here\" in the next post, you can get 100 Tiger coins. If you collect 7 pictures and leave a message, you can also get a 7th anniversary limited gift box. (For details, please click<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/TW/181890541\" target=\"_blank\">[7th Anniversary Award-winning Activity] Tiger Search</a>Understanding)</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b519142d901e1ef1ff2a2e443798687b\" tg-width=\"214\" tg-height=\"286\"></p>","source":"lsy1582083733592","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Taking history as a mirror, the deduction and impact of inflation soaring in the United States</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nTaking history as a mirror, the deduction and impact of inflation soaring in the United States\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">川阅全球宏观</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-06-10 21:58</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>On June 10, 2021 EDT, the U.S. Department of Labor released inflation data for May.<b>In May, the CPI of the United States rose by 5.0% year-on-year, and the core CPI rose by 3.8% year-on-year, the largest increase since August 2008. Since the beginning of this year, the inflation rate in the United States has accelerated, and the Federal Reserve's interest rate meeting in June is imminent. Inflation worries in the market linger.</b>We have reviewed several spikes in U.S. inflation throughout history to better understand this one and its impact:</p><p><b>Since 1960, the U.S. CPI has broken 5% year-on-year four times</b>(FIG. 1). We conducted a review of the economic fundamentals and Fed policy from the period when CPI broke 4%, broke 5% and retreated (Table 1).</p><p><b>1968/06-1971/09</b>: The economy is in recession, but the residual warmth of large government spending and fiscal stimulus in the early period is still there, and inflation continues to rise. The Federal Reserve tightened monetary policy in 1970 to curb inflation.</p><p><b>1973/03-1982/11：</b>Under the double blow of the food crisis and the oil crisis, the US economy fell into stagflation, and supply shocks and costs pushed up inflation. Government price controls failed and monetary policy lacked independence and was too lagging to successfully curb inflation.</p><p><b>1987/08-1991/07：</b>After emerging from stagflation, the U.S. economy experienced high growth, but began to slow down in 1987, and there was upward pressure on wages and prices, and the Federal Reserve tightened monetary policy.</p><p><b>2007/11-2008/09：</b>The soaring oil price pushed up inflation, and the financial crisis broke out. The first task of the Federal Reserve's monetary policy was to bail out the market, and inflation was not in its focus.</p><p><b>The causes of current inflation are similar to those of 1973-1982 inflation, both of which are cost-driven.</b></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/327f6f12c3af30abee8fa0ae334f9763\" tg-width=\"1006\" tg-height=\"611\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0ca353ebcbaf95ba1da0b46a815d5f8b\" tg-width=\"1025\" tg-height=\"853\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><b>The main reason for this surge in inflation lies in the base effect and supply shortage under the pandemic.</b>The US CPI recorded 5.0% in May this year (the highest level since August 2008), but<b>From the perspective of CPI index, the compound growth rate in May 2021 relative to May 2019 was only 2.5%.</b></p><p><b>For this year's deduction of inflation, we focus on the two sub-items of used cars and rent.</b></p><p><b>One of the main thrust forces for inflation is used cars.</b>Under the deterioration of the epidemic situation in Southeast Asia, many chip factories shut down, and the shortage of chips led to the reduction of production by car companies. The supply of new cars is insufficient, the demand for used cars has soared, and prices have skyrocketed (Figure 2). According to Manheim data, used vehicle sales prices increased more than new vehicles in 2021 (Figure 3). In addition, other transportation-related price increases widened further in May, with the increase in transportation service prices expanding to 11.2% from 5.6% in April, doubling the increase.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/884ed39a8682a3df05e8411f17f2105c\" tg-width=\"995\" tg-height=\"585\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/599b70f4fadb590d0d7b20254d4b1403\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"738\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><b>The trend of rent prices has an important impact on the deduction of future inflation.</b>The weight of rent in the US CPI is high (about 30%). Although the growth rate of rent is relatively modest compared with other sub-items (2.2% year-on-year in May this year), the growth rate slope has steepened since the beginning of the year (Figure 4).<b>It is expected that rent will continue to rise moderately in the future, affected by supply shortages</b>。</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/869c4f313152d3a14769097f150fb674\" tg-width=\"1021\" tg-height=\"644\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><b>What is the trend of inflation expectations?</b></p><p>From a consumer perspective, Michigan's expected inflation data shows that 2<b>In May 2021, the five-year inflation expectation of U.S. consumers jumped to 3.0% from 2.7% last month (Figure 5), but it is still lower than the 3.5% that the Federal Reserve can tolerate.</b></p><p>From the perspective of policymakers, as stated in our previous report, the Fed focuses on the monitoring of inflation expectations, and the key indicators are<b>Common Inflation Expectations Index (CIE), CIE is quarterly data, and data for the second quarter of 2021 is expected to be released by the end of this month.</b></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/21708bec0c792eb9299eda62ba3cd077\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"666\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><b>How will future inflation affect asset prices?</b></p><p>We review the changes of the yields of US dollars, US stocks and US bonds in different time intervals after CPI broke 4% in the above four major inflations (Table 2):<b>Inflation has a negative impact on the US dollar and US stocks. The former lags behind, while the latter is reflected within one month.</b>Interestingly, the impact of inflation on US debt yields is irregular. For the research framework of US debt, please refer to our previous report.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/037d9e565ff952b13c942386e8d08506\" tg-width=\"1059\" tg-height=\"599\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><b>Risk warning:</b>Geopolitical risks mount as Fed tightens monetary policy too quickly</p><p><hr>Congratulations on finding the letter E and participating in the \"Tiger Search\" activity. If you leave a message \"Tiger is here\" in the next post, you can get 100 Tiger coins. If you collect 7 pictures and leave a message, you can also get a 7th anniversary limited gift box. (For details, please click<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/TW/181890541\" target=\"_blank\">[7th Anniversary Award-winning Activity] Tiger Search</a>Understanding)</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b519142d901e1ef1ff2a2e443798687b\" tg-width=\"214\" tg-height=\"286\"></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> source：<a href=\"https://www.zhitongcaijing.com/content/detail/492521.html\">川阅全球宏观</a></p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/93c3dba7c4b0e443e40fe6df5639434d","relate_stocks":{".DJI":"道琼斯"},"source_url":"https://www.zhitongcaijing.com/content/detail/492521.html","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1156453091","content_text":"美国东部时间2021年6月10日，美国劳工部发布5月通胀数据。美国5月CPI同比升5.0%、核心CPI同比升3.8%，创2008年8月以来最大增幅。今年年初以来，美国通胀率加速上升，美联储6月议息会议在即，市场上通胀担忧挥之不去。我们回顾了历史上美国通胀的几次飙升，以便更好地理解本次的通胀及其影响：\n1960年以来美国CPI同比破5%出现了4次(图1)。我们对CPI破4%、破5%至回落期间的经济基本面和美联储政策进行了复盘(表1)。\n1968/06-1971/09：经济陷入衰退，但前期大幅政府开支与财政刺激的余温仍在，通胀持续上升，美联储在1970年收紧货币政策以抑制通胀。\n1973/03-1982/11：粮食危机和石油危机的双重打击下，美国经济陷入滞胀，供给冲击与成本推升通胀。政府价格管制失败，货币政策缺乏独立性并且过于滞后，未能成功抑制通胀。\n1987/08-1991/07：走出滞胀后，美国经济经历了高速增长，但1987年开始经济增速放缓，并出现工资和价格上涨压力，美联储收紧货币政策。\n2007/11-2008/09：油价飙升推升通胀，金融危机爆发，美联储货币政策的首要任务在于救市，通胀不在其重点关注范围内。\n当前的通胀和1973-1982年通胀的成因较为相似，均为成本推动。\n\n本次通胀飙升的主要原因在于疫情下的基数效应和供给短缺。今年5月美国CPI录得5.0%(为2008年8月以来的最高水平)，但是从CPI指数角度，2021年5月相对于2019年5月的复合增速仅为2.5%。\n对于今年通胀的演绎，我们重点关注二手车和房租两个分项。\n通胀的主要推力之一为二手车。东南亚疫情恶化下多地芯片厂停工，芯片短缺导致车企减产。新车供应不足，二手车需求剧增，价格飙升(图2)。根据Manheim数据，2021年二手车售价增幅超越新车(图3)。此外，5月其他交通相关的价格涨幅进一步扩大，交通服务价格增幅从4月的5.6%扩大至11.2%，增幅翻倍。\n\n房租价格走势对未来通胀的演绎有重要影响。美国CPI中房租的权重较高(约30%)，尽管相对于其它分项，房租的增速相对温和(今年5月同比增2.2%)，但年初以来增速斜率陡峭化(图4)，我们预计受到供给短缺的影响，未来房租将会持续温和地上升。\n\n通胀预期走势如何?\n从消费者的角度，密西根预期通胀率数据显示，2021年5月美国消费者5年通胀预期从上月的2.7%跳升至3.0%(图5)，但是仍然低于美联储可以容忍的3.5%。\n从政策制定者角度，如我们此前报告所述，美联储注重通胀预期的监测，关键指标为共同通胀预期指数(CIE)，CIE为季度数据，预计2021年二季度的数据将于本月底公布。\n\n未来通胀将会怎样影响资产价格?\n我们复盘了上述四次大通胀中，CPI破4%后不同时间区间内美元、美股和美债收益率的变化(表2)：通胀对于美元、美股存在负面影响，前者较为滞后，后者1个月内即有体现。有趣的是，通胀对于美债收益率的影响不具规律性，关于美债的研究框架，请参考我们此前的报告。\n\n风险提示：美联储过快收紧货币政策，地缘政治风险加剧\n\n恭喜您找到了字母E，参与《老虎大搜查》活动，下帖留言“ Tiger is here” 即可获赠100虎币，如集齐7张图片并留言，还可获赠7周年限定礼盒。（详情请点击【七周年有奖活动】老虎大搜查 了解）","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{".DJI":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2544,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0}],"lives":[]}