Weekly Overview Treasuries are the market’s pricing anchor. With the 10-year Treasury yield above 5%, equities, gold, and crypto assets all need to be reassessed in light of high-rate pressure. The Treasury Department’s earlier buybacks failed to reverse the trend in long-dated bonds. A peak in yields still needs confirmation. If oil remains range-bound, and with the two remaining rate hikes expected this year already priced in, the rise in yields may slow. But an escalation in U.S.–Iran tensions or more hawkish statements from the Fed could change that assessment. The conditions for a bond rebound are building. CTAs’ positioning in 10-year Treasuries is low, while speculative net positions in 10-year Treasuries have moved from deeply bearish to neutral, increasing the possibility of a bon

Our Call That Gold and U.S. Equities Had Topped Out in the Near Term Has Been Validated Again Hello everyone, welcome back to the Macro Strategy Weekly. In this weekly report, we regularly select contributors within the community who have relevant professional expertise to share and consolidate their market-strategy views. We also track, on a weekly basis, how those strategy calls have played out. Before turning to this week’s strategy discussion, let us review the results of our previous calls. On July 21 this year, our strategy weekly published an analysis titled: Macro Strategy Weekly: Treasury Bond Purchases Are Bearish for Markets—U.S. Equity and Gold Bulls Should Be Cautious The report received substantial engagem

This week sits at a key macro inflection point for US equities: the US is set to release important macro data including GDP and PCE, while the Jackson Hole Global Central Bank Symposium will be held over the weekend, where Fed Chair Kevin Warsh’s remarks could provide new guidance for rate expectations. Against this backdrop, Nvidia, a core name in the AI supply chain, will report earnings after the close on Wednesday; its results and guidance will directly test whether elevated capital expenditure can continue to translate into orders and profitability. The confluence of macro data, central bank commentary, and tech leadership earnings makes this week a critical checkpoint for whether the “AI narrative” can continue to support rich valuations. The core issue this week is not the direction

This Week’s Highlights 1. The U.S. Treasury will at least double the size of its liquidity-support buybacks for Treasury securities maturing in 10 to 30 years, raising the cap per operation from USD 2 billion to at least USD 4 billion. This measure may help stabilize the long-term bond market temporarily and suggests that the Treasury may be seeking to keep long-term yields near 5%. However, Treasury buybacks are not equivalent to the Federal Reserve purchasing bonds with newly created money through quantitative easing. They more closely resemble replacing long-term debt with short-term debt, and therefore cannot fundamentally eliminate the pressure from high deficits, elevated interest costs, and excessive long-term bond supply. If the market instead questions the government’s ability to

Over the past week, the core narrative shaping global asset pricing revolved around two themes. On the geopolitical front, negotiations between the United States and Iran over the Strait of Hormuz reached an impasse, with both sides engaging in heated exchanges and refusing to yield. According to Bloomberg tanker-tracking data, Middle Eastern crude oil loadings fell from 20 million barrels per day in early July to 12 million barrels per day by the end of July, with the supply disruption shifting from a “risk premium” into a “physical supply shortfall.” On the macroeconomic front, U.S. headline CPI rose 3.4% year over year in July, while core CPI increased 2.5%; month-over-month growth resumed. PPI rose 4.7% year over year, while nonfarm payroll employment unexpectedly declined by 23,000 in

Weekly Outlook Summary The central view this week is as follows: After weaker U.S. employment data, expectations for further rate hikes eased, temporarily supporting U.S. equities and risk assets. However, the rebound in oil prices, the renewed repricing of inflation, and rising Treasury yields are weakening the fundamental support for further gains in high-valuation U.S. equities. In the near term, the market may again become range-bound. The strategic focus should therefore shift from outright directional positioning toward capturing a rebound in volatility, collecting option time value, and implementing strict risk controls. Policy expectations remain the primary market driver. Following the release of the nonfarm payrolls report, market expectations for another Federal Reserve rate hik

What deserves the most attention in the U.S. equity market this week is not the movement of the S&P 500 Index itself, but rather the structural changes taking place within the index. From a valuation perspective, the S&P 500’s overall price-to-earnings ratio remains at a relatively elevated level. Valuations in information technology, real estate, industrials, health care, and other sectors are all materially above the broader market, indicating that U.S. equities as a whole still lack a clear valuation cushion. From a fund-flow perspective, SPY has recorded cumulative net inflows of approximately USD 21.6 billion since July, but fund-flow divergence across sectors has become increasingly pronounced. Capital is not simply leaving the equity market; rather, it is being reallocated a

Hello everyone. It is time once again for the Macro Strategy Weekly Report. On a regular basis, we select contributors from the community with relevant professional qualifications to share a collection of market-strategy perspectives, and we track the subsequent performance of those strategy views each week. Before starting this report, let us review the outcomes of the forecasts in our previous article. On July 21 this year, our Strategy Weekly Report published an analytical report titled: 《Macro Weekly Strategy: U.S. Stocks May Have Weathered the Worst — Don't Miss the Gold Rebound》 It received a large number of likes and shares at the time. As indicated by its title, the report forecast a rebound in gold and a modera

Review of Last Week's Strategies and Profitability Welcome to this week's Macro Strategy Weekly. As is our tradition, let's first review the outcomes of the strategies discussed in last week's report: Macro Strategy Weekly: How to trade Fed-Week Volatility and the Crack-Spread Retreat Strategy Contributor: @程俊Dream US Equities (Nasdaq): Last week's limit orders were not filled, but we are keeping them active. We maintain limit buy orders for the Nasdaq at 26,080 and 24,720 (half position each), with a stop-loss set below 23,000, and target prices at 30,500 and 33,800. Gold: We anticipated a rebound last week but lacked an ideal entry point, so we pr

Over the past week, major asset classes delivered a strikingly uneven set of returns. Crude oil took first place with a 10.64% gain, silver followed with 4.04%, copper and gold posted modest gains of 1.10% and 0.81% respectively, while aluminium fell 0.73% — the only commodity to close lower. Against that broad commodity strength, U.S. equity index futures retreated across the board. Both of the week's commodity narratives point to the Middle East. On crude: renewed U.S.–Iran confrontation, a Houthi strike that shut in 400,000 barrels per day of capacity at Saudi Aramco's Jazan refinery, Red Sea tanker traffic falling to multi-month lows, and OPEC+ preparing to stop raising output targets together pushed up the pricing of supply-disruption risk. On aluminium: according to Reuters, war in t

First, let's review how last week's strategies performed. Recap: Macro Weekly Strategy: U.S. Stocks May Have Weathered the Worst — Don't Miss the Gold Rebound Review of Last Week's Strategies and P&L Cheng Jun (程俊): Watch the Nasdaq closely. The most recent weekly low at 28,227 is initial support; once it breaks, the summer market will most likely shift into a high-level, range-bound pattern, with bullish momentum and market sentiment weakening in tandem. Result: The trade was not triggered last week. This week that key level was broken, marking the inflection point into a weaker market. Whether to consider going short — see this week's strategy commentary below. Gan Canrong (甘灿荣): Strategy reference: consider selli

Last week U.S. equities posted a weekly decline: the S&P 500 ETF (SPY) fell 1.54% for the week, but sector performance diverged sharply. Energy rose 4.72%, leading the entire market; Real Estate, Consumer and Financials also gained; Technology plunged more than 5%, becoming the main drag on the index. Capital is rotating out of high-valuation sectors into Energy, Real Estate and defensive sectors in search of internal rebalancing — and the sectors that had been leading are starting to loosen. $Invesco QQQ(QQQ)$ $NASDAQ(.IXIC)$ $E-mini Nasdaq 100 - main 2609(NQmain)$