Investment themes for H2 2023RC-2023.06-Key-convictions-fig2Follow the sequenceRC-2023.06-Key-convictions-fig3Key CIO convictions for H2 2023Markets are at a critical juncture as central banks are hitting the pause button after the fastest hiking cycle since the ‘80s. Quality is the compass for navigating this phase.1. Narrow and uncertain path to growth, with a bottom in H2 2023The lagging effects of tightening in the real economy will lead to a further deceleration in growth with divergences: a mild US recession, anaemic growth in Europe and more resilience in emerging markets. With low absolute numbers, both on the positive (Europe) and negative (United States) sides, the path ahead remains very uncertain.2. Gradual slowdown in inflationInflation is trending lower, but the speed of adju

After the gradually subsided banking crisis happened in March, the US stock $S&P 500(.SPX)$ market continued to rebound so far.Investors are still rushing to buy despite a slew of U.S. economic data released this month pointing to recessionary signals and an expected sharp drop in Q1 corporate earnings.On Thursday, the PPI unexpectedly fell sharply, the number of jobless claims rebounded, the market expected to cut interest rates within this year, the U.S. debt and the $USD Index(USDindex.FOREX)$ fell, and the market rebounded.Is now really a good time to buy US stocks?Bank of America investment strategist Jared Woodard pointed out that there are three signals of economic recession, based on

We think the worst is over for investors.Megan Werner from JPMorgan said in mid-year outlook.Despite the likelihood of an economic downturn and a U.S. recession by the end of the year, the worst may be over for investors.We think that both stocks and bonds can continue to generate healthy returns for investors through the end of the year and into 2024.Looking Back1.Stock market: $S&P 500(.SPX)$ has recovered from its lows in October 2022 and is trading 15% higher.2.Economy: Profits and margins have decreased slightly, but sales are resilient, transportation and energy costs are lower, and the scramble for workers has eased.3.Sectors: Technology and communication services sectors have performed well in the S&P 500 this year, recovering from

Morgan strategist James Lord and others wrote in a report that as the Federal Reserve cuts interest rates and the U.S. economy avoids a hard landing, the bank expects emerging markets to have another good year, but does not expect it to be smooth sailing.Following three weeks of client meetings, here are eight surprises that could roil markets in 2024, strategists say: Either a surprise or a scare.1- Emerging market sovereign credit returns fall to 0% in 2024: U.S. Treasury yields will rebound to 5% by the end of 2024, driving the yield differential with emerging markets to 450 basis points and erasing positive returns . "Given that this happened a few months ago, this scenario should not be difficult to imagine," the strategists noted.2-Local currency bonds beat sovereign bonds in 2024: M

Under SEC regulations, fund managers with assets under management exceeding $100 million are required to file a document known as "Form 13F" within 45 days of each quarter's end, disclosing their holdings in stocks and bonds.Recently, major institutions have released their position data. Based on the 13F holdings data, do you know which stocks the institutions purchased in Q1?The following chart presents the top 20 holdings of institutional investors:Ticker# Shareholding institutions#Institutions QoQ (%)Market value of institutional holdings ($M) $Microsoft(MSFT)$ 3,8000.81,009,842.09 $Apple(AAPL)$ 3,7190.46978,148.19 $Amazon.com(AMZN)$ 3,328-0.3424,312.75