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长河_967

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2023-06-01

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2022-10-25

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The more it falls, the more it buys! With an average daily bottom-hunting of 2 billion Hong Kong stocks, these companies and funds continue to increase their weight, is the inflection point coming?

2022-10-25

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The more it falls, the more it buys! With an average daily bottom-hunting of 2 billion Hong Kong stocks, these companies and funds continue to increase their weight, is the inflection point coming?

2022-10-25

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The more it falls, the more it buys! With an average daily bottom-hunting of 2 billion Hong Kong stocks, these companies and funds continue to increase their weight, is the inflection point coming?

2021-06-11

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Taking history as a mirror, the interpretation and impact of soaring inflation in the United States

2021-06-11

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A picture to understand Didi's prospectus: spread over 15 countries, with an average daily order volume of 41 million

2021-06-11

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Taking history as a mirror, the interpretation and impact of soaring inflation in the United States

2020-02-27

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data-views=\"0\"></v-v>&nbsp;","text":"$百度集团-SW(09888)$","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/281236664811672","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2929,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":274487477666024,"gmtCreate":1708051311372,"gmtModify":1708051314419,"author":{"id":"3531263342349168","authorId":"3531263342349168","name":"长河_967","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/89806a7de18b6f81b77d0d232478a0fd","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3531263342349168","idStr":"3531263342349168"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"[财迷]","listText":"[财迷]","text":"[财迷]","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/274487477666024","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2202,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":182536255049816,"gmtCreate":1685573043897,"gmtModify":1685573045403,"author":{"id":"3531263342349168","authorId":"3531263342349168","name":"长河_967","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/89806a7de18b6f81b77d0d232478a0fd","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3531263342349168","idStr":"3531263342349168"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/FUT/CNHmain\">$HK人民币主连 2306(CNHmain)$ &nbsp;</a>8？9？10？","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/FUT/CNHmain\">$HK人民币主连 2306(CNHmain)$ &nbsp;</a>8？9？10？","text":"$HK人民币主连 2306(CNHmain)$ 8？9？10？","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/182536255049816","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2451,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":181288180,"gmtCreate":1623396446440,"gmtModify":1704202477684,"author":{"id":"3531263342349168","authorId":"3531263342349168","name":"长河_967","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/89806a7de18b6f81b77d0d232478a0fd","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3531263342349168","idStr":"3531263342349168"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Tiger is here！","listText":"Tiger is here！","text":"Tiger is here！","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/181288180","repostId":"1156453091","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1156453091","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1623333482,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1156453091?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2021-06-10 21:58","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"Taking history as a mirror, the interpretation and impact of soaring inflation in the United States","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1156453091","media":"川阅全球宏观","summary":"美国东部时间2021年6月10日，美国劳工部发布5月通胀数据。美国5月CPI同比升5.0%、核心CPI同比升3.8%，创2008年8月以来最大增幅。今年年初以来，美国通胀率加速上升，美联储6月议息会议在即，市场上通胀担忧挥之不去。我们回顾了历史上美国通胀的几次飙升，以便更好地理解本次的通胀及其影响：。1960年以来美国CPI同比破5%出现了4次(图1)。本次通胀飙升的主要原因在于疫情下的基数效应和供给短缺。房租价格走势对未来通胀的演绎有重要影响。","content":"<p>On June 10, 2021, Eastern Time, the U.S. Department of Labor released inflation data for May.<b>In May, the U.S. CPI rose 5.0% year-on-year, and the core CPI rose 3.8% year-on-year, the largest increase since August 2008. Since the beginning of this year, the inflation rate in the United States has accelerated, and the Federal Reserve's June interest rate meeting is just around the corner, and inflation concerns linger in the market.</b>We review several surges in U.S. inflation in history to better understand this inflation and its impact:</p><p><b>Since 1960, the US CPI has exceeded 5% year-on-year four times</b>(Figure 1). We conducted a review on the economic fundamentals and Fed policy during the CPI breaking 4%, breaking 5% and falling back (Table 1).</p><p><b>1968/06-1971/09</b>: The economy is in recession, but the remaining temperature of the large government spending and fiscal stimulus in the early stage is still there, and inflation continues to rise. The Federal Reserve tightened monetary policy in 1970 to curb inflation.</p><p><b>1973/03-1982/11：</b>Under the double blow of the food crisis and the oil crisis, the U.S. economy has fallen into stagflation, and supply shocks and costs have pushed up inflation. The government's price control failed, and the monetary policy lacked independence and lagged behind, which failed to curb inflation successfully.</p><p><b>1987/08-1991/07：</b>After emerging from stagflation, the U.S. economy experienced rapid growth, but in 1987, the economic growth began to slow down, and the pressure of rising wages and prices appeared, and the Federal Reserve tightened monetary policy.</p><p><b>2007/11-2008/09：</b>Soaring oil prices pushed up inflation and the financial crisis broke out. The primary task of the Federal Reserve's monetary policy was to rescue the market, and inflation was not in its focus.</p><p><b>The causes of current inflation and the inflation of 1973-1982 are relatively similar, both driven by costs.</b></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/327f6f12c3af30abee8fa0ae334f9763\" tg-width=\"1006\" tg-height=\"611\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0ca353ebcbaf95ba1da0b46a815d5f8b\" tg-width=\"1025\" tg-height=\"853\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><b>The main reasons for this surge in inflation are the base effect and supply shortages under the epidemic.</b>The U.S. CPI recorded 5.0% in May this year (the highest level since August 2008), but<b>From the perspective of the CPI index, the compound growth rate in May 2021 relative to May 2019 is only 2.5%.</b></p><p><b>For the interpretation of inflation this year, we focus on the two sub-items of used cars and rent.</b></p><p><b>One of the main drivers of inflation is used cars.</b>With the worsening of the epidemic in Southeast Asia, chip factories in many places have shut down, and the shortage of chips has caused car companies to cut production. The supply of new cars is insufficient, the demand for used cars has soared, and prices have soared (Figure 2). According to Manheim data, the price increase of used cars will exceed that of new cars in 2021 (Figure 3). In addition, other transportation-related price increases further expanded in May, and the price increase of transportation services doubled from 5.6% in April to 11.2%.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/884ed39a8682a3df05e8411f17f2105c\" tg-width=\"995\" tg-height=\"585\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/599b70f4fadb590d0d7b20254d4b1403\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"738\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><b>The trend of rent price has an important impact on the interpretation of future inflation.</b>The weight of rent in the U.S. CPI is relatively high (about 30%). Although the growth rate of rent is relatively moderate compared with other sub-items (a year-on-year increase of 2.2% in May this year), the growth rate slope has steepened since the beginning of the year (Figure 4), we<b>It is expected that rents will continue to rise moderately in the future due to the shortage of supply</b>。</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/869c4f313152d3a14769097f150fb674\" tg-width=\"1021\" tg-height=\"644\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><b>What is the trend of inflation expectations?</b></p><p>From a consumer perspective, Michigan's expected inflation rate data shows that 2%<b>U.S. consumer five-year inflation expectations jumped to 3.0% in May 2021 from 2.7% last month (Figure 5), but are still lower than the 3.5% that the Federal Reserve can tolerate.</b></p><p>From the perspective of policymakers, as mentioned in our previous report, the Fed focuses on monitoring inflation expectations, and the key indicators are<b>Common Inflation Expectations Index (CIE), CIE is quarterly data, and data for the second quarter of 2021 is expected to be released at the end of this month.</b></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/21708bec0c792eb9299eda62ba3cd077\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"666\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><b>How will inflation affect asset prices in the future?</b></p><p>We have analyzed the changes in the yields of the U.S. dollar, U.S. stocks and U.S. bonds in different time intervals after the CPI broke 4% among the above four major inflations (Table 2):<b>Inflation has a negative impact on the U.S. dollar and U.S. stocks. The former lags behind, while the latter is reflected within one month.</b>Interestingly, the impact of inflation on U.S. bond yields is irregular. For the research framework of U.S. bonds, please refer to our previous report.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/037d9e565ff952b13c942386e8d08506\" tg-width=\"1059\" tg-height=\"599\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><b>Risk warning:</b>Fed tightens monetary policy too quickly, geopolitical risks mount</p><p><hr>Congratulations on finding the letter E and participating in the \"Tiger Search\" activity. If you post a message \"Tiger is here\", you will receive 100 tiger coins. If you collect 7 pictures and leave a message, you will also receive a 7th anniversary limited gift box. (For details, please click<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/TW/181890541\" target=\"_blank\">[Seventh Anniversary Prize-winning Event] Tiger Search</a>Understand)</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b519142d901e1ef1ff2a2e443798687b\" tg-width=\"214\" tg-height=\"286\"></p>","source":"lsy1582083733592","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Taking history as a mirror, the interpretation and impact of soaring inflation in the United States</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nTaking history as a mirror, the interpretation and impact of soaring inflation in the United States\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">川阅全球宏观</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-06-10 21:58</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>On June 10, 2021, Eastern Time, the U.S. Department of Labor released inflation data for May.<b>In May, the U.S. CPI rose 5.0% year-on-year, and the core CPI rose 3.8% year-on-year, the largest increase since August 2008. Since the beginning of this year, the inflation rate in the United States has accelerated, and the Federal Reserve's June interest rate meeting is just around the corner, and inflation concerns linger in the market.</b>We review several surges in U.S. inflation in history to better understand this inflation and its impact:</p><p><b>Since 1960, the US CPI has exceeded 5% year-on-year four times</b>(Figure 1). We conducted a review on the economic fundamentals and Fed policy during the CPI breaking 4%, breaking 5% and falling back (Table 1).</p><p><b>1968/06-1971/09</b>: The economy is in recession, but the remaining temperature of the large government spending and fiscal stimulus in the early stage is still there, and inflation continues to rise. The Federal Reserve tightened monetary policy in 1970 to curb inflation.</p><p><b>1973/03-1982/11：</b>Under the double blow of the food crisis and the oil crisis, the U.S. economy has fallen into stagflation, and supply shocks and costs have pushed up inflation. The government's price control failed, and the monetary policy lacked independence and lagged behind, which failed to curb inflation successfully.</p><p><b>1987/08-1991/07：</b>After emerging from stagflation, the U.S. economy experienced rapid growth, but in 1987, the economic growth began to slow down, and the pressure of rising wages and prices appeared, and the Federal Reserve tightened monetary policy.</p><p><b>2007/11-2008/09：</b>Soaring oil prices pushed up inflation and the financial crisis broke out. The primary task of the Federal Reserve's monetary policy was to rescue the market, and inflation was not in its focus.</p><p><b>The causes of current inflation and the inflation of 1973-1982 are relatively similar, both driven by costs.</b></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/327f6f12c3af30abee8fa0ae334f9763\" tg-width=\"1006\" tg-height=\"611\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0ca353ebcbaf95ba1da0b46a815d5f8b\" tg-width=\"1025\" tg-height=\"853\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><b>The main reasons for this surge in inflation are the base effect and supply shortages under the epidemic.</b>The U.S. CPI recorded 5.0% in May this year (the highest level since August 2008), but<b>From the perspective of the CPI index, the compound growth rate in May 2021 relative to May 2019 is only 2.5%.</b></p><p><b>For the interpretation of inflation this year, we focus on the two sub-items of used cars and rent.</b></p><p><b>One of the main drivers of inflation is used cars.</b>With the worsening of the epidemic in Southeast Asia, chip factories in many places have shut down, and the shortage of chips has caused car companies to cut production. The supply of new cars is insufficient, the demand for used cars has soared, and prices have soared (Figure 2). According to Manheim data, the price increase of used cars will exceed that of new cars in 2021 (Figure 3). In addition, other transportation-related price increases further expanded in May, and the price increase of transportation services doubled from 5.6% in April to 11.2%.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/884ed39a8682a3df05e8411f17f2105c\" tg-width=\"995\" tg-height=\"585\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/599b70f4fadb590d0d7b20254d4b1403\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"738\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><b>The trend of rent price has an important impact on the interpretation of future inflation.</b>The weight of rent in the U.S. CPI is relatively high (about 30%). Although the growth rate of rent is relatively moderate compared with other sub-items (a year-on-year increase of 2.2% in May this year), the growth rate slope has steepened since the beginning of the year (Figure 4), we<b>It is expected that rents will continue to rise moderately in the future due to the shortage of supply</b>。</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/869c4f313152d3a14769097f150fb674\" tg-width=\"1021\" tg-height=\"644\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><b>What is the trend of inflation expectations?</b></p><p>From a consumer perspective, Michigan's expected inflation rate data shows that 2%<b>U.S. consumer five-year inflation expectations jumped to 3.0% in May 2021 from 2.7% last month (Figure 5), but are still lower than the 3.5% that the Federal Reserve can tolerate.</b></p><p>From the perspective of policymakers, as mentioned in our previous report, the Fed focuses on monitoring inflation expectations, and the key indicators are<b>Common Inflation Expectations Index (CIE), CIE is quarterly data, and data for the second quarter of 2021 is expected to be released at the end of this month.</b></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/21708bec0c792eb9299eda62ba3cd077\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"666\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><b>How will inflation affect asset prices in the future?</b></p><p>We have analyzed the changes in the yields of the U.S. dollar, U.S. stocks and U.S. bonds in different time intervals after the CPI broke 4% among the above four major inflations (Table 2):<b>Inflation has a negative impact on the U.S. dollar and U.S. stocks. The former lags behind, while the latter is reflected within one month.</b>Interestingly, the impact of inflation on U.S. bond yields is irregular. For the research framework of U.S. bonds, please refer to our previous report.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/037d9e565ff952b13c942386e8d08506\" tg-width=\"1059\" tg-height=\"599\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><b>Risk warning:</b>Fed tightens monetary policy too quickly, geopolitical risks mount</p><p><hr>Congratulations on finding the letter E and participating in the \"Tiger Search\" activity. If you post a message \"Tiger is here\", you will receive 100 tiger coins. If you collect 7 pictures and leave a message, you will also receive a 7th anniversary limited gift box. (For details, please click<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/TW/181890541\" target=\"_blank\">[Seventh Anniversary Prize-winning Event] Tiger Search</a>Understand)</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b519142d901e1ef1ff2a2e443798687b\" tg-width=\"214\" tg-height=\"286\"></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> source：<a href=\"https://www.zhitongcaijing.com/content/detail/492521.html\">川阅全球宏观</a></p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/93c3dba7c4b0e443e40fe6df5639434d","relate_stocks":{".DJI":"道琼斯"},"source_url":"https://www.zhitongcaijing.com/content/detail/492521.html","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1156453091","content_text":"美国东部时间2021年6月10日，美国劳工部发布5月通胀数据。美国5月CPI同比升5.0%、核心CPI同比升3.8%，创2008年8月以来最大增幅。今年年初以来，美国通胀率加速上升，美联储6月议息会议在即，市场上通胀担忧挥之不去。我们回顾了历史上美国通胀的几次飙升，以便更好地理解本次的通胀及其影响：\n1960年以来美国CPI同比破5%出现了4次(图1)。我们对CPI破4%、破5%至回落期间的经济基本面和美联储政策进行了复盘(表1)。\n1968/06-1971/09：经济陷入衰退，但前期大幅政府开支与财政刺激的余温仍在，通胀持续上升，美联储在1970年收紧货币政策以抑制通胀。\n1973/03-1982/11：粮食危机和石油危机的双重打击下，美国经济陷入滞胀，供给冲击与成本推升通胀。政府价格管制失败，货币政策缺乏独立性并且过于滞后，未能成功抑制通胀。\n1987/08-1991/07：走出滞胀后，美国经济经历了高速增长，但1987年开始经济增速放缓，并出现工资和价格上涨压力，美联储收紧货币政策。\n2007/11-2008/09：油价飙升推升通胀，金融危机爆发，美联储货币政策的首要任务在于救市，通胀不在其重点关注范围内。\n当前的通胀和1973-1982年通胀的成因较为相似，均为成本推动。\n\n本次通胀飙升的主要原因在于疫情下的基数效应和供给短缺。今年5月美国CPI录得5.0%(为2008年8月以来的最高水平)，但是从CPI指数角度，2021年5月相对于2019年5月的复合增速仅为2.5%。\n对于今年通胀的演绎，我们重点关注二手车和房租两个分项。\n通胀的主要推力之一为二手车。东南亚疫情恶化下多地芯片厂停工，芯片短缺导致车企减产。新车供应不足，二手车需求剧增，价格飙升(图2)。根据Manheim数据，2021年二手车售价增幅超越新车(图3)。此外，5月其他交通相关的价格涨幅进一步扩大，交通服务价格增幅从4月的5.6%扩大至11.2%，增幅翻倍。\n\n房租价格走势对未来通胀的演绎有重要影响。美国CPI中房租的权重较高(约30%)，尽管相对于其它分项，房租的增速相对温和(今年5月同比增2.2%)，但年初以来增速斜率陡峭化(图4)，我们预计受到供给短缺的影响，未来房租将会持续温和地上升。\n\n通胀预期走势如何?\n从消费者的角度，密西根预期通胀率数据显示，2021年5月美国消费者5年通胀预期从上月的2.7%跳升至3.0%(图5)，但是仍然低于美联储可以容忍的3.5%。\n从政策制定者角度，如我们此前报告所述，美联储注重通胀预期的监测，关键指标为共同通胀预期指数(CIE)，CIE为季度数据，预计2021年二季度的数据将于本月底公布。\n\n未来通胀将会怎样影响资产价格?\n我们复盘了上述四次大通胀中，CPI破4%后不同时间区间内美元、美股和美债收益率的变化(表2)：通胀对于美元、美股存在负面影响，前者较为滞后，后者1个月内即有体现。有趣的是，通胀对于美债收益率的影响不具规律性，关于美债的研究框架，请参考我们此前的报告。\n\n风险提示：美联储过快收紧货币政策，地缘政治风险加剧\n\n恭喜您找到了字母E，参与《老虎大搜查》活动，下帖留言“ Tiger is here” 即可获赠100虎币，如集齐7张图片并留言，还可获赠7周年限定礼盒。（详情请点击【七周年有奖活动】老虎大搜查 了解）","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{".DJI":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2310,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":181281985,"gmtCreate":1623396395947,"gmtModify":1704202475403,"author":{"id":"3531263342349168","authorId":"3531263342349168","name":"长河_967","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/89806a7de18b6f81b77d0d232478a0fd","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3531263342349168","idStr":"3531263342349168"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Tiger is here！","listText":"Tiger is here！","text":"Tiger is here！","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/181281985","repostId":"1140839418","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1140839418","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1623382205,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1140839418?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2021-06-11 11:30","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"A picture to understand Didi's prospectus: spread over 15 countries, with an average daily order volume of 41 million","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1140839418","media":"腾讯科技","summary":"6月11日消息，美国当地时间周四，$滴滴出行 $的运营主体小桔快智向美国证券交易委员会提交了IPO招股书，计划在纳斯达克股票市场或纽约证券交易所挂牌上市，股票代码为“DIDI”。根据滴滴披露的数据显示，目前滴滴已经在15个国家的4000多个城市和地区开通业务，年活跃用户数量4.93亿，年活跃司机数量1500万，日均单量4100万，年平台交易总额3410亿元，2018年至2021年Q1累计司机收入6000+亿元。","content":"<p>News on June 11, on Thursday, local time in the United States,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/DIDI\">Didi Chuxing</a>Xiaoju Kuaizhi, the operating entity of the company, submitted an IPO prospectus to the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) and plans to list on the Nasdaq stock market or the New York Stock Exchange under the stock code \"DIDI\".</p><p>According to the data disclosed by Didi, Didi has opened businesses in more than 4,000 cities and regions in 15 countries, with an annual number of active users of 493 million, an annual number of active drivers of 15 million, an average daily order volume of 41 million, and an annual platform The total transaction volume is 341 billion yuan, and the cumulative driver income from 2018 to Q1 2021 is 600 + billion yuan.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2a935c6b681f2f3744604b5596e29cac\" tg-width=\"2100\" tg-height=\"13686\"></p><p><hr>Congratulations on finding the letter I and participating in the \"Tiger Search\" activity. If you post a message \"Tiger is here\", you will receive 100 tiger coins. If you collect 7 pictures and leave a message, you will also receive a 7th anniversary limited gift box. (For details, please click<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/TW/181890541\" target=\"_blank\">[Seventh Anniversary Prize-winning Event] Tiger Search</a>Understand)<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ba72fe98df37f49a4d31b0a0684a03aa\" tg-width=\"214\" tg-height=\"286\"></p>","source":"txkj","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>A picture to understand Didi's prospectus: spread over 15 countries, with an average daily order volume of 41 million</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nA picture to understand Didi's prospectus: spread over 15 countries, with an average daily order volume of 41 million\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">腾讯科技</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-06-11 11:30</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>News on June 11, on Thursday, local time in the United States,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/DIDI\">Didi Chuxing</a>Xiaoju Kuaizhi, the operating entity of the company, submitted an IPO prospectus to the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) and plans to list on the Nasdaq stock market or the New York Stock Exchange under the stock code \"DIDI\".</p><p>According to the data disclosed by Didi, Didi has opened businesses in more than 4,000 cities and regions in 15 countries, with an annual number of active users of 493 million, an annual number of active drivers of 15 million, an average daily order volume of 41 million, and an annual platform The total transaction volume is 341 billion yuan, and the cumulative driver income from 2018 to Q1 2021 is 600 + billion yuan.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2a935c6b681f2f3744604b5596e29cac\" tg-width=\"2100\" tg-height=\"13686\"></p><p><hr>Congratulations on finding the letter I and participating in the \"Tiger Search\" activity. If you post a message \"Tiger is here\", you will receive 100 tiger coins. If you collect 7 pictures and leave a message, you will also receive a 7th anniversary limited gift box. (For details, please click<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/TW/181890541\" target=\"_blank\">[Seventh Anniversary Prize-winning Event] Tiger Search</a>Understand)<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ba72fe98df37f49a4d31b0a0684a03aa\" tg-width=\"214\" tg-height=\"286\"></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> source：<a href=\"https://new.qq.com/rain/a/20210611A02NC800\">腾讯科技</a></p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b9f14473f3e986de32cc80f6fd80b679","relate_stocks":{"DIDI":"滴滴(已退市)"},"source_url":"https://new.qq.com/rain/a/20210611A02NC800","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1140839418","content_text":"6月11日消息，美国当地时间周四，滴滴出行的运营主体小桔快智向美国证券交易委员会（SEC）提交了IPO招股书，计划在纳斯达克股票市场或纽约证券交易所挂牌上市，股票代码为“DIDI”。\n根据滴滴披露的数据显示，目前滴滴已经在15个国家的4000多个城市和地区开通业务，年活跃用户数量4.93亿，年活跃司机数量1500万，日均单量4100万，年平台交易总额3410亿元，2018年至2021年Q1累计司机收入6000+亿元。\n\n\n恭喜您找到了字母I，参与《老虎大搜查》活动，下帖留言“ Tiger is here” 即可获赠100虎币，如集齐7张图片并留言，还可获赠7周年限定礼盒。（详情请点击【七周年有奖活动】老虎大搜查 了解）","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"DIDI":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2788,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":181283899,"gmtCreate":1623396352311,"gmtModify":1704202474580,"author":{"id":"3531263342349168","authorId":"3531263342349168","name":"长河_967","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/89806a7de18b6f81b77d0d232478a0fd","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3531263342349168","idStr":"3531263342349168"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Tiger is here！","listText":"Tiger is here！","text":"Tiger is here！","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/181283899","repostId":"1156453091","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1156453091","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1623333482,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1156453091?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2021-06-10 21:58","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"Taking history as a mirror, the interpretation and impact of soaring inflation in the United States","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1156453091","media":"川阅全球宏观","summary":"美国东部时间2021年6月10日，美国劳工部发布5月通胀数据。美国5月CPI同比升5.0%、核心CPI同比升3.8%，创2008年8月以来最大增幅。今年年初以来，美国通胀率加速上升，美联储6月议息会议在即，市场上通胀担忧挥之不去。我们回顾了历史上美国通胀的几次飙升，以便更好地理解本次的通胀及其影响：。1960年以来美国CPI同比破5%出现了4次(图1)。本次通胀飙升的主要原因在于疫情下的基数效应和供给短缺。房租价格走势对未来通胀的演绎有重要影响。","content":"<p>On June 10, 2021, Eastern Time, the U.S. Department of Labor released inflation data for May.<b>In May, the U.S. CPI rose 5.0% year-on-year, and the core CPI rose 3.8% year-on-year, the largest increase since August 2008. Since the beginning of this year, the inflation rate in the United States has accelerated, and the Federal Reserve's June interest rate meeting is just around the corner, and inflation concerns linger in the market.</b>We review several surges in U.S. inflation in history to better understand this inflation and its impact:</p><p><b>Since 1960, the US CPI has exceeded 5% year-on-year four times</b>(Figure 1). We conducted a review on the economic fundamentals and Fed policy during the CPI breaking 4%, breaking 5% and falling back (Table 1).</p><p><b>1968/06-1971/09</b>: The economy is in recession, but the remaining temperature of the large government spending and fiscal stimulus in the early stage is still there, and inflation continues to rise. The Federal Reserve tightened monetary policy in 1970 to curb inflation.</p><p><b>1973/03-1982/11：</b>Under the double blow of the food crisis and the oil crisis, the U.S. economy has fallen into stagflation, and supply shocks and costs have pushed up inflation. The government's price control failed, and the monetary policy lacked independence and lagged behind, which failed to curb inflation successfully.</p><p><b>1987/08-1991/07：</b>After emerging from stagflation, the U.S. economy experienced rapid growth, but in 1987, the economic growth began to slow down, and the pressure of rising wages and prices appeared, and the Federal Reserve tightened monetary policy.</p><p><b>2007/11-2008/09：</b>Soaring oil prices pushed up inflation and the financial crisis broke out. The primary task of the Federal Reserve's monetary policy was to rescue the market, and inflation was not in its focus.</p><p><b>The causes of current inflation and the inflation of 1973-1982 are relatively similar, both driven by costs.</b></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/327f6f12c3af30abee8fa0ae334f9763\" tg-width=\"1006\" tg-height=\"611\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0ca353ebcbaf95ba1da0b46a815d5f8b\" tg-width=\"1025\" tg-height=\"853\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><b>The main reasons for this surge in inflation are the base effect and supply shortages under the epidemic.</b>The U.S. CPI recorded 5.0% in May this year (the highest level since August 2008), but<b>From the perspective of the CPI index, the compound growth rate in May 2021 relative to May 2019 is only 2.5%.</b></p><p><b>For the interpretation of inflation this year, we focus on the two sub-items of used cars and rent.</b></p><p><b>One of the main drivers of inflation is used cars.</b>With the worsening of the epidemic in Southeast Asia, chip factories in many places have shut down, and the shortage of chips has caused car companies to cut production. The supply of new cars is insufficient, the demand for used cars has soared, and prices have soared (Figure 2). According to Manheim data, the price increase of used cars will exceed that of new cars in 2021 (Figure 3). In addition, other transportation-related price increases further expanded in May, and the price increase of transportation services doubled from 5.6% in April to 11.2%.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/884ed39a8682a3df05e8411f17f2105c\" tg-width=\"995\" tg-height=\"585\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/599b70f4fadb590d0d7b20254d4b1403\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"738\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><b>The trend of rent price has an important impact on the interpretation of future inflation.</b>The weight of rent in the U.S. CPI is relatively high (about 30%). Although the growth rate of rent is relatively moderate compared with other sub-items (a year-on-year increase of 2.2% in May this year), the growth rate slope has steepened since the beginning of the year (Figure 4), we<b>It is expected that rents will continue to rise moderately in the future due to the shortage of supply</b>。</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/869c4f313152d3a14769097f150fb674\" tg-width=\"1021\" tg-height=\"644\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><b>What is the trend of inflation expectations?</b></p><p>From a consumer perspective, Michigan's expected inflation rate data shows that 2%<b>U.S. consumer five-year inflation expectations jumped to 3.0% in May 2021 from 2.7% last month (Figure 5), but are still lower than the 3.5% that the Federal Reserve can tolerate.</b></p><p>From the perspective of policymakers, as mentioned in our previous report, the Fed focuses on monitoring inflation expectations, and the key indicators are<b>Common Inflation Expectations Index (CIE), CIE is quarterly data, and data for the second quarter of 2021 is expected to be released at the end of this month.</b></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/21708bec0c792eb9299eda62ba3cd077\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"666\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><b>How will inflation affect asset prices in the future?</b></p><p>We have analyzed the changes in the yields of the U.S. dollar, U.S. stocks and U.S. bonds in different time intervals after the CPI broke 4% among the above four major inflations (Table 2):<b>Inflation has a negative impact on the U.S. dollar and U.S. stocks. The former lags behind, while the latter is reflected within one month.</b>Interestingly, the impact of inflation on U.S. bond yields is irregular. For the research framework of U.S. bonds, please refer to our previous report.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/037d9e565ff952b13c942386e8d08506\" tg-width=\"1059\" tg-height=\"599\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><b>Risk warning:</b>Fed tightens monetary policy too quickly, geopolitical risks mount</p><p><hr>Congratulations on finding the letter E and participating in the \"Tiger Search\" activity. If you post a message \"Tiger is here\", you will receive 100 tiger coins. If you collect 7 pictures and leave a message, you will also receive a 7th anniversary limited gift box. (For details, please click<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/TW/181890541\" target=\"_blank\">[Seventh Anniversary Prize-winning Event] Tiger Search</a>Understand)</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b519142d901e1ef1ff2a2e443798687b\" tg-width=\"214\" tg-height=\"286\"></p>","source":"lsy1582083733592","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Taking history as a mirror, the interpretation and impact of soaring inflation in the United States</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nTaking history as a mirror, the interpretation and impact of soaring inflation in the United States\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">川阅全球宏观</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-06-10 21:58</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>On June 10, 2021, Eastern Time, the U.S. Department of Labor released inflation data for May.<b>In May, the U.S. CPI rose 5.0% year-on-year, and the core CPI rose 3.8% year-on-year, the largest increase since August 2008. Since the beginning of this year, the inflation rate in the United States has accelerated, and the Federal Reserve's June interest rate meeting is just around the corner, and inflation concerns linger in the market.</b>We review several surges in U.S. inflation in history to better understand this inflation and its impact:</p><p><b>Since 1960, the US CPI has exceeded 5% year-on-year four times</b>(Figure 1). We conducted a review on the economic fundamentals and Fed policy during the CPI breaking 4%, breaking 5% and falling back (Table 1).</p><p><b>1968/06-1971/09</b>: The economy is in recession, but the remaining temperature of the large government spending and fiscal stimulus in the early stage is still there, and inflation continues to rise. The Federal Reserve tightened monetary policy in 1970 to curb inflation.</p><p><b>1973/03-1982/11：</b>Under the double blow of the food crisis and the oil crisis, the U.S. economy has fallen into stagflation, and supply shocks and costs have pushed up inflation. The government's price control failed, and the monetary policy lacked independence and lagged behind, which failed to curb inflation successfully.</p><p><b>1987/08-1991/07：</b>After emerging from stagflation, the U.S. economy experienced rapid growth, but in 1987, the economic growth began to slow down, and the pressure of rising wages and prices appeared, and the Federal Reserve tightened monetary policy.</p><p><b>2007/11-2008/09：</b>Soaring oil prices pushed up inflation and the financial crisis broke out. The primary task of the Federal Reserve's monetary policy was to rescue the market, and inflation was not in its focus.</p><p><b>The causes of current inflation and the inflation of 1973-1982 are relatively similar, both driven by costs.</b></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/327f6f12c3af30abee8fa0ae334f9763\" tg-width=\"1006\" tg-height=\"611\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0ca353ebcbaf95ba1da0b46a815d5f8b\" tg-width=\"1025\" tg-height=\"853\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><b>The main reasons for this surge in inflation are the base effect and supply shortages under the epidemic.</b>The U.S. CPI recorded 5.0% in May this year (the highest level since August 2008), but<b>From the perspective of the CPI index, the compound growth rate in May 2021 relative to May 2019 is only 2.5%.</b></p><p><b>For the interpretation of inflation this year, we focus on the two sub-items of used cars and rent.</b></p><p><b>One of the main drivers of inflation is used cars.</b>With the worsening of the epidemic in Southeast Asia, chip factories in many places have shut down, and the shortage of chips has caused car companies to cut production. The supply of new cars is insufficient, the demand for used cars has soared, and prices have soared (Figure 2). According to Manheim data, the price increase of used cars will exceed that of new cars in 2021 (Figure 3). In addition, other transportation-related price increases further expanded in May, and the price increase of transportation services doubled from 5.6% in April to 11.2%.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/884ed39a8682a3df05e8411f17f2105c\" tg-width=\"995\" tg-height=\"585\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/599b70f4fadb590d0d7b20254d4b1403\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"738\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><b>The trend of rent price has an important impact on the interpretation of future inflation.</b>The weight of rent in the U.S. CPI is relatively high (about 30%). Although the growth rate of rent is relatively moderate compared with other sub-items (a year-on-year increase of 2.2% in May this year), the growth rate slope has steepened since the beginning of the year (Figure 4), we<b>It is expected that rents will continue to rise moderately in the future due to the shortage of supply</b>。</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/869c4f313152d3a14769097f150fb674\" tg-width=\"1021\" tg-height=\"644\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><b>What is the trend of inflation expectations?</b></p><p>From a consumer perspective, Michigan's expected inflation rate data shows that 2%<b>U.S. consumer five-year inflation expectations jumped to 3.0% in May 2021 from 2.7% last month (Figure 5), but are still lower than the 3.5% that the Federal Reserve can tolerate.</b></p><p>From the perspective of policymakers, as mentioned in our previous report, the Fed focuses on monitoring inflation expectations, and the key indicators are<b>Common Inflation Expectations Index (CIE), CIE is quarterly data, and data for the second quarter of 2021 is expected to be released at the end of this month.</b></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/21708bec0c792eb9299eda62ba3cd077\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"666\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><b>How will inflation affect asset prices in the future?</b></p><p>We have analyzed the changes in the yields of the U.S. dollar, U.S. stocks and U.S. bonds in different time intervals after the CPI broke 4% among the above four major inflations (Table 2):<b>Inflation has a negative impact on the U.S. dollar and U.S. stocks. The former lags behind, while the latter is reflected within one month.</b>Interestingly, the impact of inflation on U.S. bond yields is irregular. For the research framework of U.S. bonds, please refer to our previous report.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/037d9e565ff952b13c942386e8d08506\" tg-width=\"1059\" tg-height=\"599\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><b>Risk warning:</b>Fed tightens monetary policy too quickly, geopolitical risks mount</p><p><hr>Congratulations on finding the letter E and participating in the \"Tiger Search\" activity. If you post a message \"Tiger is here\", you will receive 100 tiger coins. If you collect 7 pictures and leave a message, you will also receive a 7th anniversary limited gift box. (For details, please click<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/TW/181890541\" target=\"_blank\">[Seventh Anniversary Prize-winning Event] Tiger Search</a>Understand)</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b519142d901e1ef1ff2a2e443798687b\" tg-width=\"214\" tg-height=\"286\"></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> source：<a href=\"https://www.zhitongcaijing.com/content/detail/492521.html\">川阅全球宏观</a></p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/93c3dba7c4b0e443e40fe6df5639434d","relate_stocks":{".DJI":"道琼斯"},"source_url":"https://www.zhitongcaijing.com/content/detail/492521.html","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1156453091","content_text":"美国东部时间2021年6月10日，美国劳工部发布5月通胀数据。美国5月CPI同比升5.0%、核心CPI同比升3.8%，创2008年8月以来最大增幅。今年年初以来，美国通胀率加速上升，美联储6月议息会议在即，市场上通胀担忧挥之不去。我们回顾了历史上美国通胀的几次飙升，以便更好地理解本次的通胀及其影响：\n1960年以来美国CPI同比破5%出现了4次(图1)。我们对CPI破4%、破5%至回落期间的经济基本面和美联储政策进行了复盘(表1)。\n1968/06-1971/09：经济陷入衰退，但前期大幅政府开支与财政刺激的余温仍在，通胀持续上升，美联储在1970年收紧货币政策以抑制通胀。\n1973/03-1982/11：粮食危机和石油危机的双重打击下，美国经济陷入滞胀，供给冲击与成本推升通胀。政府价格管制失败，货币政策缺乏独立性并且过于滞后，未能成功抑制通胀。\n1987/08-1991/07：走出滞胀后，美国经济经历了高速增长，但1987年开始经济增速放缓，并出现工资和价格上涨压力，美联储收紧货币政策。\n2007/11-2008/09：油价飙升推升通胀，金融危机爆发，美联储货币政策的首要任务在于救市，通胀不在其重点关注范围内。\n当前的通胀和1973-1982年通胀的成因较为相似，均为成本推动。\n\n本次通胀飙升的主要原因在于疫情下的基数效应和供给短缺。今年5月美国CPI录得5.0%(为2008年8月以来的最高水平)，但是从CPI指数角度，2021年5月相对于2019年5月的复合增速仅为2.5%。\n对于今年通胀的演绎，我们重点关注二手车和房租两个分项。\n通胀的主要推力之一为二手车。东南亚疫情恶化下多地芯片厂停工，芯片短缺导致车企减产。新车供应不足，二手车需求剧增，价格飙升(图2)。根据Manheim数据，2021年二手车售价增幅超越新车(图3)。此外，5月其他交通相关的价格涨幅进一步扩大，交通服务价格增幅从4月的5.6%扩大至11.2%，增幅翻倍。\n\n房租价格走势对未来通胀的演绎有重要影响。美国CPI中房租的权重较高(约30%)，尽管相对于其它分项，房租的增速相对温和(今年5月同比增2.2%)，但年初以来增速斜率陡峭化(图4)，我们预计受到供给短缺的影响，未来房租将会持续温和地上升。\n\n通胀预期走势如何?\n从消费者的角度，密西根预期通胀率数据显示，2021年5月美国消费者5年通胀预期从上月的2.7%跳升至3.0%(图5)，但是仍然低于美联储可以容忍的3.5%。\n从政策制定者角度，如我们此前报告所述，美联储注重通胀预期的监测，关键指标为共同通胀预期指数(CIE)，CIE为季度数据，预计2021年二季度的数据将于本月底公布。\n\n未来通胀将会怎样影响资产价格?\n我们复盘了上述四次大通胀中，CPI破4%后不同时间区间内美元、美股和美债收益率的变化(表2)：通胀对于美元、美股存在负面影响，前者较为滞后，后者1个月内即有体现。有趣的是，通胀对于美债收益率的影响不具规律性，关于美债的研究框架，请参考我们此前的报告。\n\n风险提示：美联储过快收紧货币政策，地缘政治风险加剧\n\n恭喜您找到了字母E，参与《老虎大搜查》活动，下帖留言“ 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了解）","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{".DJI":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2469,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":926206182,"gmtCreate":1587112384746,"gmtModify":1705303118201,"author":{"id":"3531263342349168","authorId":"3531263342349168","name":"长河_967","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/89806a7de18b6f81b77d0d232478a0fd","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3531263342349168","idStr":"3531263342349168"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"[强]&nbsp;","listText":"[强]&nbsp;","text":"[强]","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/926206182","repostId":"1157477650","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2527,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":920915283,"gmtCreate":1584762361242,"gmtModify":1705295994231,"author":{"id":"3531263342349168","authorId":"3531263342349168","name":"长河_967","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/89806a7de18b6f81b77d0d232478a0fd","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3531263342349168","idStr":"3531263342349168"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"[捂脸]&nbsp;[捂脸]&nbsp;[捂脸]&nbsp;","listText":"[捂脸]&nbsp;[捂脸]&nbsp;[捂脸]&nbsp;","text":"[捂脸] 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8？9？10？","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/182536255049816","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2451,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":662403061,"gmtCreate":1666680761757,"gmtModify":1676537788974,"author":{"id":"3531263342349168","authorId":"3531263342349168","name":"长河_967","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/89806a7de18b6f81b77d0d232478a0fd","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3531263342349168","idStr":"3531263342349168"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"。。。","listText":"。。。","text":"。。。","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/662403061","repostId":"2278202297","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"2278202297","kind":"highlight","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"致力于提供最及时的财经资讯，最专业的解读分析，覆盖宏观经济、金融机构、A股市场、上市公司、投资理财等财经领域。","home_visible":1,"media_name":"券商中国","id":"9","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d482d56459984e8c86a6a137295b3c4f"},"pubTimestamp":1666669296,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/2278202297?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2022-10-25 11:41","market":"sh","language":"zh","title":"The more it falls, the more it buys! With an average daily bottom-hunting of 2 billion Hong Kong stocks, these companies and funds continue to increase their weight, is the inflection point coming?","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2278202297","media":"券商中国","summary":"摘要：日均20亿抄底港股，这些公司和基金持续加码，拐点要来？机构：港股目前已处在严重超卖区间！港股波动巨大，李家超：已做好应对准备今日，港股上演“绝地反击”！截至发稿，恒生科技指数涨超5%，恒指涨超1","content":"<p><html><head></head><body><b>Abstract: The average daily bargain-hunting of Hong Kong stocks is 2 billion. These companies and funds continue to increase their stakes. Is the inflection point coming? Institution: Hong Kong stocks are currently in a seriously oversold range!</b><b>Hong Kong stocks fluctuate greatly, Li Jiachao: Ready to deal with it</b></p><p>Today, Hong Kong stocks staged a \"Jedi counterattack\"! As of press time, the Hang Seng Technology Index rose more than 5%, and the Hang Seng Index rose more than 1.4%.<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/06618\">JD Health</a>Rose more than 9%,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/00241\">Ali Health</a>, Kuaishou rose more than 8%,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/00285\">BYD Electronics</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/XPEV\">XPeng vehicles</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/JD\">JD.com</a>Rose more than 7%.</p><p>On the 24th, Hong Kong stocks suffered a heavy setback, and the Hang Seng Index fell by more than 1,000 points, hitting a 13-and-a-half-year low. Li Jiachao, Chief Executive of the Hong Kong Special Administrative Region, said in a meeting with reporters before attending the Executive Council today (25th) that the global economy is affected by various unstable factors, and Hong Kong needs to keep an eye on the economy. The main task of the SAR Government is to ensure the smooth and effective operation of various financial measures in Hong Kong, and closely monitor the dynamics of Hong Kong stocks to ensure the maintenance of market order. He acknowledged that the Hong Kong stock market has been highly unstable recently, but he stressed that the SAR Government is ready to deal with different financial risks. Li Jiachao suggested that investors should pay close attention to market trends and assess investment risks.</p><p><b>Hong Kong-listed companies continue to increase repurchases</b>In 2022, the global capital market will be turbulent, and listed companies will play \"repurchase cards\" one after another. With the continuous adjustment of the index, Hong Kong stocks have begun a repurchase storm. The number and total amount of Hong Kong stock companies participating in repurchases this year have continued to set new historical records. The total repurchase amount during the year exceeded HK $76 billion.</p><p>After-hours data on October 24 showed that,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/01299\">AIA</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/601633\">Great Wall Motors</a>And<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/01113\">Cheung Kong Group</a>A number of Hong Kong-listed companies have announced that they will continue to buy back in large quantities.</p><p>It is worth noting that southbound funds are also increasing their bargain hunting, with a net inflow of HK $6.691 billion into the Hong Kong stock market in a single day. This month, the total net purchase of Hong Kong stocks was HK $47.1 billion, and the net purchase during the year was HK $300 billion. Judging from the changes in domestic ETF shares, funds are also falling and buying more.</p><p><b>Overall, this year, the average daily average of southbound funds and repurchase funds totaled HK $1.99 billion, which continued to enter the market to buy Hong Kong stocks.</b></p><p><b>Hong Kong stocks repurchase HK $400 million per day</b>Recently, Hong Kong-listed companies have continued to increase repurchases. For example, the total single-day repurchase amount on October 21 was 481 million Hong Kong dollars, the total single-day repurchase amount on October 20 was 344 million Hong Kong dollars, and the total single-day repurchase amount on October 19 was 344 million Hong Kong dollars. The amount was 584 million Hong Kong dollars, and the total single-day repurchase amount on October 18 was 436 million Hong Kong dollars.</p><p>October 24th,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/01299\">AIA</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/02333\">Great Wall Motors</a>And<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/01113\">Cheung Kong Group</a>A number of Hong Kong stock companies issued repurchase announcements.</p><p><b><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/601633\">Great Wall Motors</a></b>It was announced that on October 24, 2022, it will spend approximately HK $359 million to repurchase 46.179 million shares of the company, and the repurchase price per share will be HK $7.67-HK $7.81. This time for<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/02333\">Great Wall Motors</a>Hong Kong stocks have been repurchased for the 19th time this year. The total amount of the company's repurchase this year is HK $2.78 billion. Great Wall Motor's Hong Kong stock price has stabilized recently, rising by more than 3% for 2 consecutive days.</p><p>On October 21, the third quarterly report of 2022 released by Great Wall Motors showed that in the third quarter, the total operating income was 37.346 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 29.4%, and the net profit attributable to the parent was 2.560 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 80.7%.</p><p><b>AIA</b>The announcement stated that on October 24, 2022, it will spend approximately HK $178 million to repurchase 2.8982 million shares at a repurchase price of HK $59.5-HK $65.15 per share. In March this year, AIA launched a US $10 billion repurchase plan for the next three years, and this repurchase is the 124th repurchase of AIA's Hong Kong stocks this year. The total repurchase amount of the company this year is HK $19.858 billion.</p><p><b>Cheung Kong Group</b>The announcement stated that on October 24, 2022, it will spend approximately HK $32.2319 million to repurchase 727,000 shares, and the repurchase price per share will be HK $43.95-HK $45. Cheung Kong Group has repurchased 52 times this year, with a total repurchase amount of HK $2.171 billion.</p><p>On the same day,<b><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/00656\">Fosun International</a></b>Spend approximately HK $47.0105 million to repurchase 10 million shares, and the repurchase price per share is HK $4.61-HK $4.8;<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/00019\">Swire Pacific A</a>Spend approximately HK $37.6268 million to repurchase 682,500 shares at a repurchase price of HK $53.55-HK $57.8 per share;<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/00151\">China Want Want</a>Spend approximately HK $16.8714 million to repurchase 3.323 million shares at a repurchase price of HK $5-HK $5.13;<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/00772\">Reading Group</a>Spend HK $11.9156 million to repurchase 595,000 shares at a repurchase price of HK $19.38-HK $20.65 per share;<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/00881\">Zhongsheng Holdings</a>Spend approximately HK $24.3671 million to repurchase 746,500 shares at a repurchase price of HK $31.9-HK $32.8 per share;<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/00354\">China Software International</a>It spent approximately HK $10.0403 million to repurchase 1.99 million shares at a repurchase price of HK $4.96-HK $5.09 per share.</p><p><b>For the whole year, the total repurchase amount of Hong Kong-stock companies during the year exceeded HK $76 billion, and the average daily repurchase amount exceeded HK $400 million. Among them, AIA, Great Wall Motors, Cheung Kong Group,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/00019\">Swire Pacific A</a>The total repurchase amount during the year has exceeded HK $1 billion, ranking 2nd, 5th, 7th and 8th in the total repurchase amount of Hong Kong-stock companies during the year. Companies with the largest repurchase amount during the year include<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/00700\">Tencent Holdings</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/HBC\">HSBC Holdings</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/02269\">WuXi Biologics</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/01810\">Xiaomi Group-W</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/00384\">China Gas</a>And<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/06618\">JD Health</a>Etc.</b></p><p><b>300 billion southbound funds bargain hunting Hong Kong stocks</b>The Hong Kong stock market continues to weaken amid multiple uncertainties, and market sentiment is sluggish.</p><p>However, southbound funds have continued to flow steadily since the beginning of the year, maintaining a daily net inflow trend since October, and the scale of inflows has recently shown a trend of acceleration against the trend.</p><p>On October 24, southbound funds bought a net purchase of HK $6.691 billion in Hong Kong stocks in a single day, the fifth single-day net purchase amount this year. The largest weekly inflow since mid-March, the net purchase amount since October was HK $47.097 billion, followed by HK $53.388 billion in June and HK $48.88 billion in March. Overall, southbound funds purchased a total of HK $300 billion during the year, showing the characteristics of increasing positions against the trend.</p><p>Looking at specific companies, companies with large corrections since October such as<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/00700\">Tencent</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/03690\">Meituan-W</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/02269\">WuXi Biologics</a>With<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/02015\">Li Auto-W</a>Wait for the main force of southbound capital inflows.</p><p>Echoing southbound funds, domestic ETF products tracking the Hong Kong market, while the net value growth rate continues to decline, have continued to rise in fund shares, showing an overall trend of \"buying more and more\".</p><p>As of October 24, China<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/03032\">Hang Seng Technology ETF</a>, ChinaAMC Hang Seng Internet Technology Industry ETF, ChinaAMC Hang Seng ETF, Huatai-PineBridge CSOP<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/03032\">Hang Seng Technology ETF</a>, Bosera Hang Seng Healthcare ETF, E Fund Hang Seng H-Share ETF, E Fund Hang Seng Technology ETF and Wells Fargo CSI Hong Kong Stock Connect Internet ETF all had net inflows of more than 2 billion yuan during the year, and the shares of many ETFs hit new highs.</p><p><b>Institution: Hong Kong stocks are currently in a seriously oversold range</b>As an offshore market dominated by foreign capital, Hong Kong stocks are greatly affected by international capital flows, and the market has fluctuated this year. Many institutions believe that the sentiment of the Hong Kong stock market is relatively fragile, but after a deep correction, Hong Kong stocks are currently in a seriously oversold range.</p><p>Li Zhiwu, fund manager of Chuangjin Hexin, believes that the recent decline in Hong Kong stocks is more due to external influences such as the United States and Europe, which has caused a greater impact on both funds and emotions. From the current position, most of the impact is reflected in the stock price, and the most violent time has passed or is about to pass.</p><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/601995\">CICC</a>Fortunately, the Hong Kong stock market already has several advantages. For example, the current market has fallen to a multi-year low, the valuation is already at a historical low, and the continuous inflow of southbound funds under the domestic easing policy is superimposed. This means that overseas Chinese stocks may show stronger resilience. If the internal and external environment improves, the Hong Kong stock market is expected to rebound even stronger in the future. Looking forward, if the Fed's policy at the end of the year can be retreated, it is expected to be the first opportunity to ease the pressure. The emergence of more positive catalysts in the future, such as the increase of large-scale growth stabilization policies and the mitigation of some risks, may promote the alleviation of the underallocation of foreign-funded institutions and the repricing of market risks.</p><p>Hang Seng Qianhai Fund said that overall, Hong Kong stocks are currently in a seriously oversold range. Among them, the proportion of Hang Seng Index constituent stocks higher than its 200-day moving average has been at one of the lowest levels in history, and the proportion of daily short selling transactions has reached the highest level in history. Although the geopolitical haze still hangs over the Hong Kong market, we have reason to believe that Hong Kong stocks may not be far from the historic bottom rebound, and the catalytic factors may depend on the fulfillment of the following two factors: First, the pace of the Federal Reserve's rate hike has slowed down; Second, China's economic growth is getting rid of the trough.</p><p>Looking forward to the market outlook, Li Zhiwu is more optimistic about long-term growth industries that are in line with the direction of national transformation, such as new energy, new materials, biomedicine, high-end equipment manufacturing, etc., as well as investment opportunities from the perspective of national security (energy security, supply chain security, etc.) development, such as oil transportation, thermal power, chip industry, etc.</p><p></body></html></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>The more it falls, the more it buys! With an average daily bottom-hunting of 2 billion Hong Kong stocks, these companies and funds continue to increase their weight, is the inflection point coming?</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nThe more it falls, the more it buys! With an average daily bottom-hunting of 2 billion Hong Kong stocks, these companies and funds continue to increase their weight, is the inflection point coming?\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/9\">\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/d482d56459984e8c86a6a137295b3c4f);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">券商中国 </p>\n<p class=\"h-time smaller\">2022-10-25 11:41</p>\n</div>\n</a>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><html><head></head><body><b>Abstract: The average daily bargain-hunting of Hong Kong stocks is 2 billion. These companies and funds continue to increase their stakes. Is the inflection point coming? Institution: Hong Kong stocks are currently in a seriously oversold range!</b><b>Hong Kong stocks fluctuate greatly, Li Jiachao: Ready to deal with it</b></p><p>Today, Hong Kong stocks staged a \"Jedi counterattack\"! As of press time, the Hang Seng Technology Index rose more than 5%, and the Hang Seng Index rose more than 1.4%.<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/06618\">JD Health</a>Rose more than 9%,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/00241\">Ali Health</a>, Kuaishou rose more than 8%,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/00285\">BYD Electronics</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/XPEV\">XPeng vehicles</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/JD\">JD.com</a>Rose more than 7%.</p><p>On the 24th, Hong Kong stocks suffered a heavy setback, and the Hang Seng Index fell by more than 1,000 points, hitting a 13-and-a-half-year low. Li Jiachao, Chief Executive of the Hong Kong Special Administrative Region, said in a meeting with reporters before attending the Executive Council today (25th) that the global economy is affected by various unstable factors, and Hong Kong needs to keep an eye on the economy. The main task of the SAR Government is to ensure the smooth and effective operation of various financial measures in Hong Kong, and closely monitor the dynamics of Hong Kong stocks to ensure the maintenance of market order. He acknowledged that the Hong Kong stock market has been highly unstable recently, but he stressed that the SAR Government is ready to deal with different financial risks. Li Jiachao suggested that investors should pay close attention to market trends and assess investment risks.</p><p><b>Hong Kong-listed companies continue to increase repurchases</b>In 2022, the global capital market will be turbulent, and listed companies will play \"repurchase cards\" one after another. With the continuous adjustment of the index, Hong Kong stocks have begun a repurchase storm. The number and total amount of Hong Kong stock companies participating in repurchases this year have continued to set new historical records. The total repurchase amount during the year exceeded HK $76 billion.</p><p>After-hours data on October 24 showed that,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/01299\">AIA</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/601633\">Great Wall Motors</a>And<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/01113\">Cheung Kong Group</a>A number of Hong Kong-listed companies have announced that they will continue to buy back in large quantities.</p><p>It is worth noting that southbound funds are also increasing their bargain hunting, with a net inflow of HK $6.691 billion into the Hong Kong stock market in a single day. This month, the total net purchase of Hong Kong stocks was HK $47.1 billion, and the net purchase during the year was HK $300 billion. Judging from the changes in domestic ETF shares, funds are also falling and buying more.</p><p><b>Overall, this year, the average daily average of southbound funds and repurchase funds totaled HK $1.99 billion, which continued to enter the market to buy Hong Kong stocks.</b></p><p><b>Hong Kong stocks repurchase HK $400 million per day</b>Recently, Hong Kong-listed companies have continued to increase repurchases. For example, the total single-day repurchase amount on October 21 was 481 million Hong Kong dollars, the total single-day repurchase amount on October 20 was 344 million Hong Kong dollars, and the total single-day repurchase amount on October 19 was 344 million Hong Kong dollars. The amount was 584 million Hong Kong dollars, and the total single-day repurchase amount on October 18 was 436 million Hong Kong dollars.</p><p>October 24th,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/01299\">AIA</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/02333\">Great Wall Motors</a>And<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/01113\">Cheung Kong Group</a>A number of Hong Kong stock companies issued repurchase announcements.</p><p><b><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/601633\">Great Wall Motors</a></b>It was announced that on October 24, 2022, it will spend approximately HK $359 million to repurchase 46.179 million shares of the company, and the repurchase price per share will be HK $7.67-HK $7.81. This time for<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/02333\">Great Wall Motors</a>Hong Kong stocks have been repurchased for the 19th time this year. The total amount of the company's repurchase this year is HK $2.78 billion. Great Wall Motor's Hong Kong stock price has stabilized recently, rising by more than 3% for 2 consecutive days.</p><p>On October 21, the third quarterly report of 2022 released by Great Wall Motors showed that in the third quarter, the total operating income was 37.346 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 29.4%, and the net profit attributable to the parent was 2.560 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 80.7%.</p><p><b>AIA</b>The announcement stated that on October 24, 2022, it will spend approximately HK $178 million to repurchase 2.8982 million shares at a repurchase price of HK $59.5-HK $65.15 per share. In March this year, AIA launched a US $10 billion repurchase plan for the next three years, and this repurchase is the 124th repurchase of AIA's Hong Kong stocks this year. The total repurchase amount of the company this year is HK $19.858 billion.</p><p><b>Cheung Kong Group</b>The announcement stated that on October 24, 2022, it will spend approximately HK $32.2319 million to repurchase 727,000 shares, and the repurchase price per share will be HK $43.95-HK $45. Cheung Kong Group has repurchased 52 times this year, with a total repurchase amount of HK $2.171 billion.</p><p>On the same day,<b><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/00656\">Fosun International</a></b>Spend approximately HK $47.0105 million to repurchase 10 million shares, and the repurchase price per share is HK $4.61-HK $4.8;<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/00019\">Swire Pacific A</a>Spend approximately HK $37.6268 million to repurchase 682,500 shares at a repurchase price of HK $53.55-HK $57.8 per share;<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/00151\">China Want Want</a>Spend approximately HK $16.8714 million to repurchase 3.323 million shares at a repurchase price of HK $5-HK $5.13;<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/00772\">Reading Group</a>Spend HK $11.9156 million to repurchase 595,000 shares at a repurchase price of HK $19.38-HK $20.65 per share;<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/00881\">Zhongsheng Holdings</a>Spend approximately HK $24.3671 million to repurchase 746,500 shares at a repurchase price of HK $31.9-HK $32.8 per share;<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/00354\">China Software International</a>It spent approximately HK $10.0403 million to repurchase 1.99 million shares at a repurchase price of HK $4.96-HK $5.09 per share.</p><p><b>For the whole year, the total repurchase amount of Hong Kong-stock companies during the year exceeded HK $76 billion, and the average daily repurchase amount exceeded HK $400 million. Among them, AIA, Great Wall Motors, Cheung Kong Group,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/00019\">Swire Pacific A</a>The total repurchase amount during the year has exceeded HK $1 billion, ranking 2nd, 5th, 7th and 8th in the total repurchase amount of Hong Kong-stock companies during the year. Companies with the largest repurchase amount during the year include<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/00700\">Tencent Holdings</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/HBC\">HSBC Holdings</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/02269\">WuXi Biologics</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/01810\">Xiaomi Group-W</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/00384\">China Gas</a>And<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/06618\">JD Health</a>Etc.</b></p><p><b>300 billion southbound funds bargain hunting Hong Kong stocks</b>The Hong Kong stock market continues to weaken amid multiple uncertainties, and market sentiment is sluggish.</p><p>However, southbound funds have continued to flow steadily since the beginning of the year, maintaining a daily net inflow trend since October, and the scale of inflows has recently shown a trend of acceleration against the trend.</p><p>On October 24, southbound funds bought a net purchase of HK $6.691 billion in Hong Kong stocks in a single day, the fifth single-day net purchase amount this year. The largest weekly inflow since mid-March, the net purchase amount since October was HK $47.097 billion, followed by HK $53.388 billion in June and HK $48.88 billion in March. Overall, southbound funds purchased a total of HK $300 billion during the year, showing the characteristics of increasing positions against the trend.</p><p>Looking at specific companies, companies with large corrections since October such as<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/00700\">Tencent</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/03690\">Meituan-W</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/02269\">WuXi Biologics</a>With<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/02015\">Li Auto-W</a>Wait for the main force of southbound capital inflows.</p><p>Echoing southbound funds, domestic ETF products tracking the Hong Kong market, while the net value growth rate continues to decline, have continued to rise in fund shares, showing an overall trend of \"buying more and more\".</p><p>As of October 24, China<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/03032\">Hang Seng Technology ETF</a>, ChinaAMC Hang Seng Internet Technology Industry ETF, ChinaAMC Hang Seng ETF, Huatai-PineBridge CSOP<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/03032\">Hang Seng Technology ETF</a>, Bosera Hang Seng Healthcare ETF, E Fund Hang Seng H-Share ETF, E Fund Hang Seng Technology ETF and Wells Fargo CSI Hong Kong Stock Connect Internet ETF all had net inflows of more than 2 billion yuan during the year, and the shares of many ETFs hit new highs.</p><p><b>Institution: Hong Kong stocks are currently in a seriously oversold range</b>As an offshore market dominated by foreign capital, Hong Kong stocks are greatly affected by international capital flows, and the market has fluctuated this year. Many institutions believe that the sentiment of the Hong Kong stock market is relatively fragile, but after a deep correction, Hong Kong stocks are currently in a seriously oversold range.</p><p>Li Zhiwu, fund manager of Chuangjin Hexin, believes that the recent decline in Hong Kong stocks is more due to external influences such as the United States and Europe, which has caused a greater impact on both funds and emotions. From the current position, most of the impact is reflected in the stock price, and the most violent time has passed or is about to pass.</p><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/601995\">CICC</a>Fortunately, the Hong Kong stock market already has several advantages. For example, the current market has fallen to a multi-year low, the valuation is already at a historical low, and the continuous inflow of southbound funds under the domestic easing policy is superimposed. This means that overseas Chinese stocks may show stronger resilience. If the internal and external environment improves, the Hong Kong stock market is expected to rebound even stronger in the future. Looking forward, if the Fed's policy at the end of the year can be retreated, it is expected to be the first opportunity to ease the pressure. The emergence of more positive catalysts in the future, such as the increase of large-scale growth stabilization policies and the mitigation of some risks, may promote the alleviation of the underallocation of foreign-funded institutions and the repricing of market risks.</p><p>Hang Seng Qianhai Fund said that overall, Hong Kong stocks are currently in a seriously oversold range. Among them, the proportion of Hang Seng Index constituent stocks higher than its 200-day moving average has been at one of the lowest levels in history, and the proportion of daily short selling transactions has reached the highest level in history. Although the geopolitical haze still hangs over the Hong Kong market, we have reason to believe that Hong Kong stocks may not be far from the historic bottom rebound, and the catalytic factors may depend on the fulfillment of the following two factors: First, the pace of the Federal Reserve's rate hike has slowed down; Second, China's economic growth is getting rid of the trough.</p><p>Looking forward to the market outlook, Li Zhiwu is more optimistic about long-term growth industries that are in line with the direction of national transformation, such as new energy, new materials, biomedicine, high-end equipment manufacturing, etc., as well as investment opportunities from the perspective of national security (energy security, supply chain security, etc.) development, such as oil transportation, thermal power, chip industry, etc.</p><p></body></html></p>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a9caa730718c4b63b3117ec8391cebed","relate_stocks":{"02333":"长城汽车","HSTECH":"恒生科技指数","02833":"恒指ETF","HSI":"恒生指数"},"source_url":"","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2278202297","content_text":"摘要：日均20亿抄底港股，这些公司和基金持续加码，拐点要来？机构：港股目前已处在严重超卖区间！港股波动巨大，李家超：已做好应对准备今日，港股上演“绝地反击”！截至发稿，恒生科技指数涨超5%，恒指涨超1.4%。京东健康涨超9%，阿里健康、快手涨超8%，比亚迪电子、小鹏汽车、京东涨超7%。24日，港股受到重挫，恒生指数跌逾千点，创13年半新低。香港特别行政区行政长官李家超今日（25日）出席行政会议前会见记者时表示，全球经济受各种不稳定因素影响，香港需对经济持续保持关注。特区政府的主要任务是确保香港各项金融措施流畅且有效运行，并密切监测港股动态，保证维护好市场秩序。他承认，近期香港股市有较高不稳定性，但他强调特区政府已作好准备，以应对不同的金融风险。李家超建议，投资者应密切关注市场走向，评估投资风险。港股上市公司持续加码回购2022年全球资本市场动荡不安，上市公司纷纷打出“回购牌”。伴随指数不断调整，港股开始了回购风暴，今年参与回购的港股公司数量和总金额不断刷新历史纪录，年内总回购金额超过760亿港元。10月24日盘后数据显示，友邦保险、长城汽车和长实集团等多家港股上市公司公告继续大手笔回购。值得注意的是，南向资金也在不断加码抄底，单日66.91亿港元净流入港股市场，本月合计净买入港股471亿港元，年内净买入3000亿港元。从国内ETF份额变动来看，资金也在越跌越买。总的来看，今年南向资金和回购资金日均合计有19.9亿港元在源源不断进场买入港股。港股日均回购4亿港元近期，港股上市公司持续加码回购，如10月21日单日回购总金额为4.81亿港元，10月20日单日总回购金额为3.44亿港元，10月19日单日总回购金额为5.84亿港元，10月18日单日总回购金额为4.36亿港元。10月24日，友邦保险、长城汽车和长实集团等多家港股公司发布回购公告。长城汽车发布公告，2022年10月24日斥资约3.59亿港元回购股份4617.9万股公司股票，每股回购价格为7.67港元-7.81港元。此次为长城汽车港股今年第19次回购，今年公司回购总金额27.8亿港元。长城汽车港股股价近日企稳，连续2日涨超3%。10月21日，长城汽车发布的2022年3季报显示，第三季度实现营业总收入373.46亿元，同比增长29.4%，归母净利润25.60亿元，同比增长80.7%。友邦保险公告表示，2022年10月24日斥资约1.78亿港元回购289.82万股，回购价为每股59.5港元-65.15港元。今年3月，友邦保险祭出未来三年100亿美元回购计划，而此次回购为友邦保险港股今年第124次回购，今年公司回购总金额198.58亿港元。长实集团公告称，2022年10月24日斥资约3223.19万港元回购股份72.7万股，每股回购价格为43.95港元-45港元。长实集团今年以来已经回购52次，回购总金额为21.71亿港元。同日，复星国际斥资约4701.05万港元回购股份1000万股，每股回购价格为4.61港元-4.8港元；太古股份公司A斥资约3762.68万港元回购68.25万股，回购价为每股53.55港元-57.8港元；中国旺旺斥资约1687.14万港元回购332.3万股，回购价为5港元-5.13港元；阅文集团斥资1191.56万港元回购59.5万股，回购价格为每股19.38港元-20.65港元；中升控股斥资约2436.71万港元回购74.65万股，回购价为每股31.9港元-32.8港元；中国软件国际斥资约1004.03万港元回购199万股，回购价为每股4.96港元-5.09港元。全年来看，港股公司年内总回购金额超过760亿港元，日均回购金额超过4亿港元，其中友邦保险、长城汽车、长实集团、太古股份公司A年内总回购金额均已超过10亿港元，分列港股公司年内回购总额榜第2、5、7、8位。年内回购金额居前的公司还有腾讯控股、汇丰控股、药明生物、小米集团-W、中国燃气和京东健康等。3000亿南向资金抄底港股港股市场在多重不确定因素下持续走弱，市场情绪低迷。不过，南向资金延续了自年初以来持续稳步流入的态势，进入10月以来保持每日净流入趋势，流入规模近期呈现逆势加速态势。10月24日，南向资金单日净买入港股66.91亿港元，为今年单日净买入额第五，最近一周（10月17-21日）整体流入规模达257亿港元，创下自3月中旬以来最大周度流入规模，10月以来净买入金额为470.97亿港元，次于6月的533.88亿港元和3月的488.8亿港元。整体来看，南向资金年内合计净买入3000亿港元，呈现逆势加仓特征。具体公司来看，10月以来回调幅度较大的公司如腾讯、美团-W、药明生物与理想汽车-W等为南向资金流入主力。与南向资金呼应的是，跟踪香港市场的国内ETF产品，在净值增长率持续走低的情况下，基金份额却不断攀升，整体呈现“越跌越买”的趋势。截至10月24日，华夏恒生科技ETF、华夏恒生互联网科技业ETF、华夏恒生ETF、华泰柏瑞南方东英恒生科技ETF、博时恒生医疗保健ETF、易方达恒生H股ETF、易方达恒生科技ETF和富国中证港股通互联网ETF年内资金净流入均超20亿元，其中多只ETF份额创新高。机构：港股目前已处在严重超卖区间港股作为外资为主的离岸市场，受国际资本流动影响较大，今年市场震荡起伏。多家机构认为港股市场情绪较为脆弱，不过经过深度回调后，目前港股已处在严重超卖区间。创金合信基金经理李志武认为，港股近期下跌更多在于美国和欧洲等外部影响，资金面和情绪面都造成较大的冲击，当前位置看，冲击大部分反映在股价上，最猛烈的时候已过去或即将过去。中金公司表示，所幸的是，港股市场已经具备几项优势，如当前市场已跌至数年低点，估值已经处于历史低位，叠加国内宽松政策下南向资金的持续流入。这意味着海外中资股可能展现出更强的韧性。如果内外部环境有所改善，港股市场未来反弹力度有望更大。往前看，美联储在年底的政策如果可以退坡有望成为第一个压力缓解的契机。而后续更多正面催化剂的出现，如大规模稳增长政策加码以及部分风险的缓解，可能推动外资机构低配情况缓解和市场风险的重新定价。恒生前海基金表示，整体来看，港股目前已处在严重超卖区间，其中恒生指数成份股高于其200日移动均线的占比已处于历史最低水平之一，并且每日卖空交易占比达历史最高水平区间。尽管地缘政治阴霾仍然笼罩香港市场，但我们有理由相信，港股距离历史性底部反弹或已经不远，催化因素或取决于以下两个因素的兑现：第一、美联储加息步伐放缓；第二、中国经济增长正摆脱低谷。展望后市，李志武更看好符合国家转型方向的长期成长性行业，如新能源、新材料、生物医药、高端装备制造等，以及国家安全（能源安全、供应链安全等）发展角度下的投资机会，如油运、火电、芯片行业等。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"02833":0.6,"02333":0.9,"HSTECH":0.9,"HSI":0.85}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":580,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":662400545,"gmtCreate":1666680498791,"gmtModify":1676537788907,"author":{"id":"3531263342349168","authorId":"3531263342349168","name":"长河_967","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/89806a7de18b6f81b77d0d232478a0fd","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3531263342349168","idStr":"3531263342349168"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"。","listText":"。","text":"。","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/662400545","repostId":"2278202297","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"2278202297","kind":"highlight","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"致力于提供最及时的财经资讯，最专业的解读分析，覆盖宏观经济、金融机构、A股市场、上市公司、投资理财等财经领域。","home_visible":1,"media_name":"券商中国","id":"9","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d482d56459984e8c86a6a137295b3c4f"},"pubTimestamp":1666669296,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/2278202297?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2022-10-25 11:41","market":"sh","language":"zh","title":"The more it falls, the more it buys! With an average daily bottom-hunting of 2 billion Hong Kong stocks, these companies and funds continue to increase their weight, is the inflection point coming?","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2278202297","media":"券商中国","summary":"摘要：日均20亿抄底港股，这些公司和基金持续加码，拐点要来？机构：港股目前已处在严重超卖区间！港股波动巨大，李家超：已做好应对准备今日，港股上演“绝地反击”！截至发稿，恒生科技指数涨超5%，恒指涨超1","content":"<p><html><head></head><body><b>Abstract: The average daily bargain-hunting of Hong Kong stocks is 2 billion. These companies and funds continue to increase their stakes. Is the inflection point coming? Institution: Hong Kong stocks are currently in a seriously oversold range!</b><b>Hong Kong stocks fluctuate greatly, Li Jiachao: Ready to deal with it</b></p><p>Today, Hong Kong stocks staged a \"Jedi counterattack\"! As of press time, the Hang Seng Technology Index rose more than 5%, and the Hang Seng Index rose more than 1.4%.<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/06618\">JD Health</a>Rose more than 9%,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/00241\">Ali Health</a>, Kuaishou rose more than 8%,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/00285\">BYD Electronics</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/XPEV\">XPeng vehicles</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/JD\">JD.com</a>Rose more than 7%.</p><p>On the 24th, Hong Kong stocks suffered a heavy setback, and the Hang Seng Index fell by more than 1,000 points, hitting a 13-and-a-half-year low. Li Jiachao, Chief Executive of the Hong Kong Special Administrative Region, said in a meeting with reporters before attending the Executive Council today (25th) that the global economy is affected by various unstable factors, and Hong Kong needs to keep an eye on the economy. The main task of the SAR Government is to ensure the smooth and effective operation of various financial measures in Hong Kong, and closely monitor the dynamics of Hong Kong stocks to ensure the maintenance of market order. He acknowledged that the Hong Kong stock market has been highly unstable recently, but he stressed that the SAR Government is ready to deal with different financial risks. Li Jiachao suggested that investors should pay close attention to market trends and assess investment risks.</p><p><b>Hong Kong-listed companies continue to increase repurchases</b>In 2022, the global capital market will be turbulent, and listed companies will play \"repurchase cards\" one after another. With the continuous adjustment of the index, Hong Kong stocks have begun a repurchase storm. The number and total amount of Hong Kong stock companies participating in repurchases this year have continued to set new historical records. The total repurchase amount during the year exceeded HK $76 billion.</p><p>After-hours data on October 24 showed that,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/01299\">AIA</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/601633\">Great Wall Motors</a>And<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/01113\">Cheung Kong Group</a>A number of Hong Kong-listed companies have announced that they will continue to buy back in large quantities.</p><p>It is worth noting that southbound funds are also increasing their bargain hunting, with a net inflow of HK $6.691 billion into the Hong Kong stock market in a single day. This month, the total net purchase of Hong Kong stocks was HK $47.1 billion, and the net purchase during the year was HK $300 billion. Judging from the changes in domestic ETF shares, funds are also falling and buying more.</p><p><b>Overall, this year, the average daily average of southbound funds and repurchase funds totaled HK $1.99 billion, which continued to enter the market to buy Hong Kong stocks.</b></p><p><b>Hong Kong stocks repurchase HK $400 million per day</b>Recently, Hong Kong-listed companies have continued to increase repurchases. For example, the total single-day repurchase amount on October 21 was 481 million Hong Kong dollars, the total single-day repurchase amount on October 20 was 344 million Hong Kong dollars, and the total single-day repurchase amount on October 19 was 344 million Hong Kong dollars. The amount was 584 million Hong Kong dollars, and the total single-day repurchase amount on October 18 was 436 million Hong Kong dollars.</p><p>October 24th,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/01299\">AIA</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/02333\">Great Wall Motors</a>And<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/01113\">Cheung Kong Group</a>A number of Hong Kong stock companies issued repurchase announcements.</p><p><b><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/601633\">Great Wall Motors</a></b>It was announced that on October 24, 2022, it will spend approximately HK $359 million to repurchase 46.179 million shares of the company, and the repurchase price per share will be HK $7.67-HK $7.81. This time for<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/02333\">Great Wall Motors</a>Hong Kong stocks have been repurchased for the 19th time this year. The total amount of the company's repurchase this year is HK $2.78 billion. Great Wall Motor's Hong Kong stock price has stabilized recently, rising by more than 3% for 2 consecutive days.</p><p>On October 21, the third quarterly report of 2022 released by Great Wall Motors showed that in the third quarter, the total operating income was 37.346 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 29.4%, and the net profit attributable to the parent was 2.560 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 80.7%.</p><p><b>AIA</b>The announcement stated that on October 24, 2022, it will spend approximately HK $178 million to repurchase 2.8982 million shares at a repurchase price of HK $59.5-HK $65.15 per share. In March this year, AIA launched a US $10 billion repurchase plan for the next three years, and this repurchase is the 124th repurchase of AIA's Hong Kong stocks this year. The total repurchase amount of the company this year is HK $19.858 billion.</p><p><b>Cheung Kong Group</b>The announcement stated that on October 24, 2022, it will spend approximately HK $32.2319 million to repurchase 727,000 shares, and the repurchase price per share will be HK $43.95-HK $45. Cheung Kong Group has repurchased 52 times this year, with a total repurchase amount of HK $2.171 billion.</p><p>On the same day,<b><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/00656\">Fosun International</a></b>Spend approximately HK $47.0105 million to repurchase 10 million shares, and the repurchase price per share is HK $4.61-HK $4.8;<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/00019\">Swire Pacific A</a>Spend approximately HK $37.6268 million to repurchase 682,500 shares at a repurchase price of HK $53.55-HK $57.8 per share;<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/00151\">China Want Want</a>Spend approximately HK $16.8714 million to repurchase 3.323 million shares at a repurchase price of HK $5-HK $5.13;<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/00772\">Reading Group</a>Spend HK $11.9156 million to repurchase 595,000 shares at a repurchase price of HK $19.38-HK $20.65 per share;<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/00881\">Zhongsheng Holdings</a>Spend approximately HK $24.3671 million to repurchase 746,500 shares at a repurchase price of HK $31.9-HK $32.8 per share;<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/00354\">China Software International</a>It spent approximately HK $10.0403 million to repurchase 1.99 million shares at a repurchase price of HK $4.96-HK $5.09 per share.</p><p><b>For the whole year, the total repurchase amount of Hong Kong-stock companies during the year exceeded HK $76 billion, and the average daily repurchase amount exceeded HK $400 million. Among them, AIA, Great Wall Motors, Cheung Kong Group,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/00019\">Swire Pacific A</a>The total repurchase amount during the year has exceeded HK $1 billion, ranking 2nd, 5th, 7th and 8th in the total repurchase amount of Hong Kong-stock companies during the year. Companies with the largest repurchase amount during the year include<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/00700\">Tencent Holdings</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/HBC\">HSBC Holdings</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/02269\">WuXi Biologics</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/01810\">Xiaomi Group-W</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/00384\">China Gas</a>And<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/06618\">JD Health</a>Etc.</b></p><p><b>300 billion southbound funds bargain hunting Hong Kong stocks</b>The Hong Kong stock market continues to weaken amid multiple uncertainties, and market sentiment is sluggish.</p><p>However, southbound funds have continued to flow steadily since the beginning of the year, maintaining a daily net inflow trend since October, and the scale of inflows has recently shown a trend of acceleration against the trend.</p><p>On October 24, southbound funds bought a net purchase of HK $6.691 billion in Hong Kong stocks in a single day, the fifth single-day net purchase amount this year. The largest weekly inflow since mid-March, the net purchase amount since October was HK $47.097 billion, followed by HK $53.388 billion in June and HK $48.88 billion in March. Overall, southbound funds purchased a total of HK $300 billion during the year, showing the characteristics of increasing positions against the trend.</p><p>Looking at specific companies, companies with large corrections since October such as<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/00700\">Tencent</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/03690\">Meituan-W</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/02269\">WuXi Biologics</a>With<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/02015\">Li Auto-W</a>Wait for the main force of southbound capital inflows.</p><p>Echoing southbound funds, domestic ETF products tracking the Hong Kong market, while the net value growth rate continues to decline, have continued to rise in fund shares, showing an overall trend of \"buying more and more\".</p><p>As of October 24, China<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/03032\">Hang Seng Technology ETF</a>, ChinaAMC Hang Seng Internet Technology Industry ETF, ChinaAMC Hang Seng ETF, Huatai-PineBridge CSOP<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/03032\">Hang Seng Technology ETF</a>, Bosera Hang Seng Healthcare ETF, E Fund Hang Seng H-Share ETF, E Fund Hang Seng Technology ETF and Wells Fargo CSI Hong Kong Stock Connect Internet ETF all had net inflows of more than 2 billion yuan during the year, and the shares of many ETFs hit new highs.</p><p><b>Institution: Hong Kong stocks are currently in a seriously oversold range</b>As an offshore market dominated by foreign capital, Hong Kong stocks are greatly affected by international capital flows, and the market has fluctuated this year. Many institutions believe that the sentiment of the Hong Kong stock market is relatively fragile, but after a deep correction, Hong Kong stocks are currently in a seriously oversold range.</p><p>Li Zhiwu, fund manager of Chuangjin Hexin, believes that the recent decline in Hong Kong stocks is more due to external influences such as the United States and Europe, which has caused a greater impact on both funds and emotions. From the current position, most of the impact is reflected in the stock price, and the most violent time has passed or is about to pass.</p><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/601995\">CICC</a>Fortunately, the Hong Kong stock market already has several advantages. For example, the current market has fallen to a multi-year low, the valuation is already at a historical low, and the continuous inflow of southbound funds under the domestic easing policy is superimposed. This means that overseas Chinese stocks may show stronger resilience. If the internal and external environment improves, the Hong Kong stock market is expected to rebound even stronger in the future. Looking forward, if the Fed's policy at the end of the year can be retreated, it is expected to be the first opportunity to ease the pressure. The emergence of more positive catalysts in the future, such as the increase of large-scale growth stabilization policies and the mitigation of some risks, may promote the alleviation of the underallocation of foreign-funded institutions and the repricing of market risks.</p><p>Hang Seng Qianhai Fund said that overall, Hong Kong stocks are currently in a seriously oversold range. Among them, the proportion of Hang Seng Index constituent stocks higher than its 200-day moving average has been at one of the lowest levels in history, and the proportion of daily short selling transactions has reached the highest level in history. Although the geopolitical haze still hangs over the Hong Kong market, we have reason to believe that Hong Kong stocks may not be far from the historic bottom rebound, and the catalytic factors may depend on the fulfillment of the following two factors: First, the pace of the Federal Reserve's rate hike has slowed down; Second, China's economic growth is getting rid of the trough.</p><p>Looking forward to the market outlook, Li Zhiwu is more optimistic about long-term growth industries that are in line with the direction of national transformation, such as new energy, new materials, biomedicine, high-end equipment manufacturing, etc., as well as investment opportunities from the perspective of national security (energy security, supply chain security, etc.) development, such as oil transportation, thermal power, chip industry, etc.</p><p></body></html></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>The more it falls, the more it buys! With an average daily bottom-hunting of 2 billion Hong Kong stocks, these companies and funds continue to increase their weight, is the inflection point coming?</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nThe more it falls, the more it buys! With an average daily bottom-hunting of 2 billion Hong Kong stocks, these companies and funds continue to increase their weight, is the inflection point coming?\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/9\">\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/d482d56459984e8c86a6a137295b3c4f);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">券商中国 </p>\n<p class=\"h-time smaller\">2022-10-25 11:41</p>\n</div>\n</a>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><html><head></head><body><b>Abstract: The average daily bargain-hunting of Hong Kong stocks is 2 billion. These companies and funds continue to increase their stakes. Is the inflection point coming? Institution: Hong Kong stocks are currently in a seriously oversold range!</b><b>Hong Kong stocks fluctuate greatly, Li Jiachao: Ready to deal with it</b></p><p>Today, Hong Kong stocks staged a \"Jedi counterattack\"! As of press time, the Hang Seng Technology Index rose more than 5%, and the Hang Seng Index rose more than 1.4%.<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/06618\">JD Health</a>Rose more than 9%,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/00241\">Ali Health</a>, Kuaishou rose more than 8%,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/00285\">BYD Electronics</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/XPEV\">XPeng vehicles</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/JD\">JD.com</a>Rose more than 7%.</p><p>On the 24th, Hong Kong stocks suffered a heavy setback, and the Hang Seng Index fell by more than 1,000 points, hitting a 13-and-a-half-year low. Li Jiachao, Chief Executive of the Hong Kong Special Administrative Region, said in a meeting with reporters before attending the Executive Council today (25th) that the global economy is affected by various unstable factors, and Hong Kong needs to keep an eye on the economy. The main task of the SAR Government is to ensure the smooth and effective operation of various financial measures in Hong Kong, and closely monitor the dynamics of Hong Kong stocks to ensure the maintenance of market order. He acknowledged that the Hong Kong stock market has been highly unstable recently, but he stressed that the SAR Government is ready to deal with different financial risks. Li Jiachao suggested that investors should pay close attention to market trends and assess investment risks.</p><p><b>Hong Kong-listed companies continue to increase repurchases</b>In 2022, the global capital market will be turbulent, and listed companies will play \"repurchase cards\" one after another. With the continuous adjustment of the index, Hong Kong stocks have begun a repurchase storm. The number and total amount of Hong Kong stock companies participating in repurchases this year have continued to set new historical records. The total repurchase amount during the year exceeded HK $76 billion.</p><p>After-hours data on October 24 showed that,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/01299\">AIA</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/601633\">Great Wall Motors</a>And<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/01113\">Cheung Kong Group</a>A number of Hong Kong-listed companies have announced that they will continue to buy back in large quantities.</p><p>It is worth noting that southbound funds are also increasing their bargain hunting, with a net inflow of HK $6.691 billion into the Hong Kong stock market in a single day. This month, the total net purchase of Hong Kong stocks was HK $47.1 billion, and the net purchase during the year was HK $300 billion. Judging from the changes in domestic ETF shares, funds are also falling and buying more.</p><p><b>Overall, this year, the average daily average of southbound funds and repurchase funds totaled HK $1.99 billion, which continued to enter the market to buy Hong Kong stocks.</b></p><p><b>Hong Kong stocks repurchase HK $400 million per day</b>Recently, Hong Kong-listed companies have continued to increase repurchases. For example, the total single-day repurchase amount on October 21 was 481 million Hong Kong dollars, the total single-day repurchase amount on October 20 was 344 million Hong Kong dollars, and the total single-day repurchase amount on October 19 was 344 million Hong Kong dollars. The amount was 584 million Hong Kong dollars, and the total single-day repurchase amount on October 18 was 436 million Hong Kong dollars.</p><p>October 24th,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/01299\">AIA</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/02333\">Great Wall Motors</a>And<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/01113\">Cheung Kong Group</a>A number of Hong Kong stock companies issued repurchase announcements.</p><p><b><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/601633\">Great Wall Motors</a></b>It was announced that on October 24, 2022, it will spend approximately HK $359 million to repurchase 46.179 million shares of the company, and the repurchase price per share will be HK $7.67-HK $7.81. This time for<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/02333\">Great Wall Motors</a>Hong Kong stocks have been repurchased for the 19th time this year. The total amount of the company's repurchase this year is HK $2.78 billion. Great Wall Motor's Hong Kong stock price has stabilized recently, rising by more than 3% for 2 consecutive days.</p><p>On October 21, the third quarterly report of 2022 released by Great Wall Motors showed that in the third quarter, the total operating income was 37.346 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 29.4%, and the net profit attributable to the parent was 2.560 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 80.7%.</p><p><b>AIA</b>The announcement stated that on October 24, 2022, it will spend approximately HK $178 million to repurchase 2.8982 million shares at a repurchase price of HK $59.5-HK $65.15 per share. In March this year, AIA launched a US $10 billion repurchase plan for the next three years, and this repurchase is the 124th repurchase of AIA's Hong Kong stocks this year. The total repurchase amount of the company this year is HK $19.858 billion.</p><p><b>Cheung Kong Group</b>The announcement stated that on October 24, 2022, it will spend approximately HK $32.2319 million to repurchase 727,000 shares, and the repurchase price per share will be HK $43.95-HK $45. Cheung Kong Group has repurchased 52 times this year, with a total repurchase amount of HK $2.171 billion.</p><p>On the same day,<b><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/00656\">Fosun International</a></b>Spend approximately HK $47.0105 million to repurchase 10 million shares, and the repurchase price per share is HK $4.61-HK $4.8;<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/00019\">Swire Pacific A</a>Spend approximately HK $37.6268 million to repurchase 682,500 shares at a repurchase price of HK $53.55-HK $57.8 per share;<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/00151\">China Want Want</a>Spend approximately HK $16.8714 million to repurchase 3.323 million shares at a repurchase price of HK $5-HK $5.13;<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/00772\">Reading Group</a>Spend HK $11.9156 million to repurchase 595,000 shares at a repurchase price of HK $19.38-HK $20.65 per share;<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/00881\">Zhongsheng Holdings</a>Spend approximately HK $24.3671 million to repurchase 746,500 shares at a repurchase price of HK $31.9-HK $32.8 per share;<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/00354\">China Software International</a>It spent approximately HK $10.0403 million to repurchase 1.99 million shares at a repurchase price of HK $4.96-HK $5.09 per share.</p><p><b>For the whole year, the total repurchase amount of Hong Kong-stock companies during the year exceeded HK $76 billion, and the average daily repurchase amount exceeded HK $400 million. Among them, AIA, Great Wall Motors, Cheung Kong Group,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/00019\">Swire Pacific A</a>The total repurchase amount during the year has exceeded HK $1 billion, ranking 2nd, 5th, 7th and 8th in the total repurchase amount of Hong Kong-stock companies during the year. Companies with the largest repurchase amount during the year include<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/00700\">Tencent Holdings</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/HBC\">HSBC Holdings</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/02269\">WuXi Biologics</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/01810\">Xiaomi Group-W</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/00384\">China Gas</a>And<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/06618\">JD Health</a>Etc.</b></p><p><b>300 billion southbound funds bargain hunting Hong Kong stocks</b>The Hong Kong stock market continues to weaken amid multiple uncertainties, and market sentiment is sluggish.</p><p>However, southbound funds have continued to flow steadily since the beginning of the year, maintaining a daily net inflow trend since October, and the scale of inflows has recently shown a trend of acceleration against the trend.</p><p>On October 24, southbound funds bought a net purchase of HK $6.691 billion in Hong Kong stocks in a single day, the fifth single-day net purchase amount this year. The largest weekly inflow since mid-March, the net purchase amount since October was HK $47.097 billion, followed by HK $53.388 billion in June and HK $48.88 billion in March. Overall, southbound funds purchased a total of HK $300 billion during the year, showing the characteristics of increasing positions against the trend.</p><p>Looking at specific companies, companies with large corrections since October such as<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/00700\">Tencent</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/03690\">Meituan-W</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/02269\">WuXi Biologics</a>With<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/02015\">Li Auto-W</a>Wait for the main force of southbound capital inflows.</p><p>Echoing southbound funds, domestic ETF products tracking the Hong Kong market, while the net value growth rate continues to decline, have continued to rise in fund shares, showing an overall trend of \"buying more and more\".</p><p>As of October 24, China<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/03032\">Hang Seng Technology ETF</a>, ChinaAMC Hang Seng Internet Technology Industry ETF, ChinaAMC Hang Seng ETF, Huatai-PineBridge CSOP<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/03032\">Hang Seng Technology ETF</a>, Bosera Hang Seng Healthcare ETF, E Fund Hang Seng H-Share ETF, E Fund Hang Seng Technology ETF and Wells Fargo CSI Hong Kong Stock Connect Internet ETF all had net inflows of more than 2 billion yuan during the year, and the shares of many ETFs hit new highs.</p><p><b>Institution: Hong Kong stocks are currently in a seriously oversold range</b>As an offshore market dominated by foreign capital, Hong Kong stocks are greatly affected by international capital flows, and the market has fluctuated this year. Many institutions believe that the sentiment of the Hong Kong stock market is relatively fragile, but after a deep correction, Hong Kong stocks are currently in a seriously oversold range.</p><p>Li Zhiwu, fund manager of Chuangjin Hexin, believes that the recent decline in Hong Kong stocks is more due to external influences such as the United States and Europe, which has caused a greater impact on both funds and emotions. From the current position, most of the impact is reflected in the stock price, and the most violent time has passed or is about to pass.</p><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/601995\">CICC</a>Fortunately, the Hong Kong stock market already has several advantages. For example, the current market has fallen to a multi-year low, the valuation is already at a historical low, and the continuous inflow of southbound funds under the domestic easing policy is superimposed. This means that overseas Chinese stocks may show stronger resilience. If the internal and external environment improves, the Hong Kong stock market is expected to rebound even stronger in the future. Looking forward, if the Fed's policy at the end of the year can be retreated, it is expected to be the first opportunity to ease the pressure. The emergence of more positive catalysts in the future, such as the increase of large-scale growth stabilization policies and the mitigation of some risks, may promote the alleviation of the underallocation of foreign-funded institutions and the repricing of market risks.</p><p>Hang Seng Qianhai Fund said that overall, Hong Kong stocks are currently in a seriously oversold range. Among them, the proportion of Hang Seng Index constituent stocks higher than its 200-day moving average has been at one of the lowest levels in history, and the proportion of daily short selling transactions has reached the highest level in history. Although the geopolitical haze still hangs over the Hong Kong market, we have reason to believe that Hong Kong stocks may not be far from the historic bottom rebound, and the catalytic factors may depend on the fulfillment of the following two factors: First, the pace of the Federal Reserve's rate hike has slowed down; Second, China's economic growth is getting rid of the trough.</p><p>Looking forward to the market outlook, Li Zhiwu is more optimistic about long-term growth industries that are in line with the direction of national transformation, such as new energy, new materials, biomedicine, high-end equipment manufacturing, etc., as well as investment opportunities from the perspective of national security (energy security, supply chain security, etc.) development, such as oil transportation, thermal power, chip industry, etc.</p><p></body></html></p>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a9caa730718c4b63b3117ec8391cebed","relate_stocks":{"02333":"长城汽车","HSTECH":"恒生科技指数","02833":"恒指ETF","HSI":"恒生指数"},"source_url":"","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2278202297","content_text":"摘要：日均20亿抄底港股，这些公司和基金持续加码，拐点要来？机构：港股目前已处在严重超卖区间！港股波动巨大，李家超：已做好应对准备今日，港股上演“绝地反击”！截至发稿，恒生科技指数涨超5%，恒指涨超1.4%。京东健康涨超9%，阿里健康、快手涨超8%，比亚迪电子、小鹏汽车、京东涨超7%。24日，港股受到重挫，恒生指数跌逾千点，创13年半新低。香港特别行政区行政长官李家超今日（25日）出席行政会议前会见记者时表示，全球经济受各种不稳定因素影响，香港需对经济持续保持关注。特区政府的主要任务是确保香港各项金融措施流畅且有效运行，并密切监测港股动态，保证维护好市场秩序。他承认，近期香港股市有较高不稳定性，但他强调特区政府已作好准备，以应对不同的金融风险。李家超建议，投资者应密切关注市场走向，评估投资风险。港股上市公司持续加码回购2022年全球资本市场动荡不安，上市公司纷纷打出“回购牌”。伴随指数不断调整，港股开始了回购风暴，今年参与回购的港股公司数量和总金额不断刷新历史纪录，年内总回购金额超过760亿港元。10月24日盘后数据显示，友邦保险、长城汽车和长实集团等多家港股上市公司公告继续大手笔回购。值得注意的是，南向资金也在不断加码抄底，单日66.91亿港元净流入港股市场，本月合计净买入港股471亿港元，年内净买入3000亿港元。从国内ETF份额变动来看，资金也在越跌越买。总的来看，今年南向资金和回购资金日均合计有19.9亿港元在源源不断进场买入港股。港股日均回购4亿港元近期，港股上市公司持续加码回购，如10月21日单日回购总金额为4.81亿港元，10月20日单日总回购金额为3.44亿港元，10月19日单日总回购金额为5.84亿港元，10月18日单日总回购金额为4.36亿港元。10月24日，友邦保险、长城汽车和长实集团等多家港股公司发布回购公告。长城汽车发布公告，2022年10月24日斥资约3.59亿港元回购股份4617.9万股公司股票，每股回购价格为7.67港元-7.81港元。此次为长城汽车港股今年第19次回购，今年公司回购总金额27.8亿港元。长城汽车港股股价近日企稳，连续2日涨超3%。10月21日，长城汽车发布的2022年3季报显示，第三季度实现营业总收入373.46亿元，同比增长29.4%，归母净利润25.60亿元，同比增长80.7%。友邦保险公告表示，2022年10月24日斥资约1.78亿港元回购289.82万股，回购价为每股59.5港元-65.15港元。今年3月，友邦保险祭出未来三年100亿美元回购计划，而此次回购为友邦保险港股今年第124次回购，今年公司回购总金额198.58亿港元。长实集团公告称，2022年10月24日斥资约3223.19万港元回购股份72.7万股，每股回购价格为43.95港元-45港元。长实集团今年以来已经回购52次，回购总金额为21.71亿港元。同日，复星国际斥资约4701.05万港元回购股份1000万股，每股回购价格为4.61港元-4.8港元；太古股份公司A斥资约3762.68万港元回购68.25万股，回购价为每股53.55港元-57.8港元；中国旺旺斥资约1687.14万港元回购332.3万股，回购价为5港元-5.13港元；阅文集团斥资1191.56万港元回购59.5万股，回购价格为每股19.38港元-20.65港元；中升控股斥资约2436.71万港元回购74.65万股，回购价为每股31.9港元-32.8港元；中国软件国际斥资约1004.03万港元回购199万股，回购价为每股4.96港元-5.09港元。全年来看，港股公司年内总回购金额超过760亿港元，日均回购金额超过4亿港元，其中友邦保险、长城汽车、长实集团、太古股份公司A年内总回购金额均已超过10亿港元，分列港股公司年内回购总额榜第2、5、7、8位。年内回购金额居前的公司还有腾讯控股、汇丰控股、药明生物、小米集团-W、中国燃气和京东健康等。3000亿南向资金抄底港股港股市场在多重不确定因素下持续走弱，市场情绪低迷。不过，南向资金延续了自年初以来持续稳步流入的态势，进入10月以来保持每日净流入趋势，流入规模近期呈现逆势加速态势。10月24日，南向资金单日净买入港股66.91亿港元，为今年单日净买入额第五，最近一周（10月17-21日）整体流入规模达257亿港元，创下自3月中旬以来最大周度流入规模，10月以来净买入金额为470.97亿港元，次于6月的533.88亿港元和3月的488.8亿港元。整体来看，南向资金年内合计净买入3000亿港元，呈现逆势加仓特征。具体公司来看，10月以来回调幅度较大的公司如腾讯、美团-W、药明生物与理想汽车-W等为南向资金流入主力。与南向资金呼应的是，跟踪香港市场的国内ETF产品，在净值增长率持续走低的情况下，基金份额却不断攀升，整体呈现“越跌越买”的趋势。截至10月24日，华夏恒生科技ETF、华夏恒生互联网科技业ETF、华夏恒生ETF、华泰柏瑞南方东英恒生科技ETF、博时恒生医疗保健ETF、易方达恒生H股ETF、易方达恒生科技ETF和富国中证港股通互联网ETF年内资金净流入均超20亿元，其中多只ETF份额创新高。机构：港股目前已处在严重超卖区间港股作为外资为主的离岸市场，受国际资本流动影响较大，今年市场震荡起伏。多家机构认为港股市场情绪较为脆弱，不过经过深度回调后，目前港股已处在严重超卖区间。创金合信基金经理李志武认为，港股近期下跌更多在于美国和欧洲等外部影响，资金面和情绪面都造成较大的冲击，当前位置看，冲击大部分反映在股价上，最猛烈的时候已过去或即将过去。中金公司表示，所幸的是，港股市场已经具备几项优势，如当前市场已跌至数年低点，估值已经处于历史低位，叠加国内宽松政策下南向资金的持续流入。这意味着海外中资股可能展现出更强的韧性。如果内外部环境有所改善，港股市场未来反弹力度有望更大。往前看，美联储在年底的政策如果可以退坡有望成为第一个压力缓解的契机。而后续更多正面催化剂的出现，如大规模稳增长政策加码以及部分风险的缓解，可能推动外资机构低配情况缓解和市场风险的重新定价。恒生前海基金表示，整体来看，港股目前已处在严重超卖区间，其中恒生指数成份股高于其200日移动均线的占比已处于历史最低水平之一，并且每日卖空交易占比达历史最高水平区间。尽管地缘政治阴霾仍然笼罩香港市场，但我们有理由相信，港股距离历史性底部反弹或已经不远，催化因素或取决于以下两个因素的兑现：第一、美联储加息步伐放缓；第二、中国经济增长正摆脱低谷。展望后市，李志武更看好符合国家转型方向的长期成长性行业，如新能源、新材料、生物医药、高端装备制造等，以及国家安全（能源安全、供应链安全等）发展角度下的投资机会，如油运、火电、芯片行业等。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"02833":0.6,"02333":0.9,"HSTECH":0.9,"HSI":0.85}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":743,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":662545430,"gmtCreate":1666672174324,"gmtModify":1676537787697,"author":{"id":"3531263342349168","authorId":"3531263342349168","name":"长河_967","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/89806a7de18b6f81b77d0d232478a0fd","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3531263342349168","idStr":"3531263342349168"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"。","listText":"。","text":"。","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/662545430","repostId":"2278202297","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"2278202297","kind":"highlight","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"致力于提供最及时的财经资讯，最专业的解读分析，覆盖宏观经济、金融机构、A股市场、上市公司、投资理财等财经领域。","home_visible":1,"media_name":"券商中国","id":"9","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d482d56459984e8c86a6a137295b3c4f"},"pubTimestamp":1666669296,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/2278202297?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2022-10-25 11:41","market":"sh","language":"zh","title":"The more it falls, the more it buys! With an average daily bottom-hunting of 2 billion Hong Kong stocks, these companies and funds continue to increase their weight, is the inflection point coming?","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2278202297","media":"券商中国","summary":"摘要：日均20亿抄底港股，这些公司和基金持续加码，拐点要来？机构：港股目前已处在严重超卖区间！港股波动巨大，李家超：已做好应对准备今日，港股上演“绝地反击”！截至发稿，恒生科技指数涨超5%，恒指涨超1","content":"<p><html><head></head><body><b>Abstract: The average daily bargain-hunting of Hong Kong stocks is 2 billion. These companies and funds continue to increase their stakes. Is the inflection point coming? Institution: Hong Kong stocks are currently in a seriously oversold range!</b><b>Hong Kong stocks fluctuate greatly, Li Jiachao: Ready to deal with it</b></p><p>Today, Hong Kong stocks staged a \"Jedi counterattack\"! As of press time, the Hang Seng Technology Index rose more than 5%, and the Hang Seng Index rose more than 1.4%.<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/06618\">JD Health</a>Rose more than 9%,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/00241\">Ali Health</a>, Kuaishou rose more than 8%,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/00285\">BYD Electronics</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/XPEV\">XPeng vehicles</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/JD\">JD.com</a>Rose more than 7%.</p><p>On the 24th, Hong Kong stocks suffered a heavy setback, and the Hang Seng Index fell by more than 1,000 points, hitting a 13-and-a-half-year low. Li Jiachao, Chief Executive of the Hong Kong Special Administrative Region, said in a meeting with reporters before attending the Executive Council today (25th) that the global economy is affected by various unstable factors, and Hong Kong needs to keep an eye on the economy. The main task of the SAR Government is to ensure the smooth and effective operation of various financial measures in Hong Kong, and closely monitor the dynamics of Hong Kong stocks to ensure the maintenance of market order. He acknowledged that the Hong Kong stock market has been highly unstable recently, but he stressed that the SAR Government is ready to deal with different financial risks. Li Jiachao suggested that investors should pay close attention to market trends and assess investment risks.</p><p><b>Hong Kong-listed companies continue to increase repurchases</b>In 2022, the global capital market will be turbulent, and listed companies will play \"repurchase cards\" one after another. With the continuous adjustment of the index, Hong Kong stocks have begun a repurchase storm. The number and total amount of Hong Kong stock companies participating in repurchases this year have continued to set new historical records. The total repurchase amount during the year exceeded HK $76 billion.</p><p>After-hours data on October 24 showed that,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/01299\">AIA</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/601633\">Great Wall Motors</a>And<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/01113\">Cheung Kong Group</a>A number of Hong Kong-listed companies have announced that they will continue to buy back in large quantities.</p><p>It is worth noting that southbound funds are also increasing their bargain hunting, with a net inflow of HK $6.691 billion into the Hong Kong stock market in a single day. This month, the total net purchase of Hong Kong stocks was HK $47.1 billion, and the net purchase during the year was HK $300 billion. Judging from the changes in domestic ETF shares, funds are also falling and buying more.</p><p><b>Overall, this year, the average daily average of southbound funds and repurchase funds totaled HK $1.99 billion, which continued to enter the market to buy Hong Kong stocks.</b></p><p><b>Hong Kong stocks repurchase HK $400 million per day</b>Recently, Hong Kong-listed companies have continued to increase repurchases. For example, the total single-day repurchase amount on October 21 was 481 million Hong Kong dollars, the total single-day repurchase amount on October 20 was 344 million Hong Kong dollars, and the total single-day repurchase amount on October 19 was 344 million Hong Kong dollars. The amount was 584 million Hong Kong dollars, and the total single-day repurchase amount on October 18 was 436 million Hong Kong dollars.</p><p>October 24th,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/01299\">AIA</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/02333\">Great Wall Motors</a>And<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/01113\">Cheung Kong Group</a>A number of Hong Kong stock companies issued repurchase announcements.</p><p><b><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/601633\">Great Wall Motors</a></b>It was announced that on October 24, 2022, it will spend approximately HK $359 million to repurchase 46.179 million shares of the company, and the repurchase price per share will be HK $7.67-HK $7.81. This time for<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/02333\">Great Wall Motors</a>Hong Kong stocks have been repurchased for the 19th time this year. The total amount of the company's repurchase this year is HK $2.78 billion. Great Wall Motor's Hong Kong stock price has stabilized recently, rising by more than 3% for 2 consecutive days.</p><p>On October 21, the third quarterly report of 2022 released by Great Wall Motors showed that in the third quarter, the total operating income was 37.346 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 29.4%, and the net profit attributable to the parent was 2.560 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 80.7%.</p><p><b>AIA</b>The announcement stated that on October 24, 2022, it will spend approximately HK $178 million to repurchase 2.8982 million shares at a repurchase price of HK $59.5-HK $65.15 per share. In March this year, AIA launched a US $10 billion repurchase plan for the next three years, and this repurchase is the 124th repurchase of AIA's Hong Kong stocks this year. The total repurchase amount of the company this year is HK $19.858 billion.</p><p><b>Cheung Kong Group</b>The announcement stated that on October 24, 2022, it will spend approximately HK $32.2319 million to repurchase 727,000 shares, and the repurchase price per share will be HK $43.95-HK $45. Cheung Kong Group has repurchased 52 times this year, with a total repurchase amount of HK $2.171 billion.</p><p>On the same day,<b><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/00656\">Fosun International</a></b>Spend approximately HK $47.0105 million to repurchase 10 million shares, and the repurchase price per share is HK $4.61-HK $4.8;<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/00019\">Swire Pacific A</a>Spend approximately HK $37.6268 million to repurchase 682,500 shares at a repurchase price of HK $53.55-HK $57.8 per share;<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/00151\">China Want Want</a>Spend approximately HK $16.8714 million to repurchase 3.323 million shares at a repurchase price of HK $5-HK $5.13;<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/00772\">Reading Group</a>Spend HK $11.9156 million to repurchase 595,000 shares at a repurchase price of HK $19.38-HK $20.65 per share;<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/00881\">Zhongsheng Holdings</a>Spend approximately HK $24.3671 million to repurchase 746,500 shares at a repurchase price of HK $31.9-HK $32.8 per share;<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/00354\">China Software International</a>It spent approximately HK $10.0403 million to repurchase 1.99 million shares at a repurchase price of HK $4.96-HK $5.09 per share.</p><p><b>For the whole year, the total repurchase amount of Hong Kong-stock companies during the year exceeded HK $76 billion, and the average daily repurchase amount exceeded HK $400 million. Among them, AIA, Great Wall Motors, Cheung Kong Group,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/00019\">Swire Pacific A</a>The total repurchase amount during the year has exceeded HK $1 billion, ranking 2nd, 5th, 7th and 8th in the total repurchase amount of Hong Kong-stock companies during the year. Companies with the largest repurchase amount during the year include<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/00700\">Tencent Holdings</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/HBC\">HSBC Holdings</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/02269\">WuXi Biologics</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/01810\">Xiaomi Group-W</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/00384\">China Gas</a>And<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/06618\">JD Health</a>Etc.</b></p><p><b>300 billion southbound funds bargain hunting Hong Kong stocks</b>The Hong Kong stock market continues to weaken amid multiple uncertainties, and market sentiment is sluggish.</p><p>However, southbound funds have continued to flow steadily since the beginning of the year, maintaining a daily net inflow trend since October, and the scale of inflows has recently shown a trend of acceleration against the trend.</p><p>On October 24, southbound funds bought a net purchase of HK $6.691 billion in Hong Kong stocks in a single day, the fifth single-day net purchase amount this year. The largest weekly inflow since mid-March, the net purchase amount since October was HK $47.097 billion, followed by HK $53.388 billion in June and HK $48.88 billion in March. Overall, southbound funds purchased a total of HK $300 billion during the year, showing the characteristics of increasing positions against the trend.</p><p>Looking at specific companies, companies with large corrections since October such as<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/00700\">Tencent</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/03690\">Meituan-W</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/02269\">WuXi Biologics</a>With<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/02015\">Li Auto-W</a>Wait for the main force of southbound capital inflows.</p><p>Echoing southbound funds, domestic ETF products tracking the Hong Kong market, while the net value growth rate continues to decline, have continued to rise in fund shares, showing an overall trend of \"buying more and more\".</p><p>As of October 24, China<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/03032\">Hang Seng Technology ETF</a>, ChinaAMC Hang Seng Internet Technology Industry ETF, ChinaAMC Hang Seng ETF, Huatai-PineBridge CSOP<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/03032\">Hang Seng Technology ETF</a>, Bosera Hang Seng Healthcare ETF, E Fund Hang Seng H-Share ETF, E Fund Hang Seng Technology ETF and Wells Fargo CSI Hong Kong Stock Connect Internet ETF all had net inflows of more than 2 billion yuan during the year, and the shares of many ETFs hit new highs.</p><p><b>Institution: Hong Kong stocks are currently in a seriously oversold range</b>As an offshore market dominated by foreign capital, Hong Kong stocks are greatly affected by international capital flows, and the market has fluctuated this year. Many institutions believe that the sentiment of the Hong Kong stock market is relatively fragile, but after a deep correction, Hong Kong stocks are currently in a seriously oversold range.</p><p>Li Zhiwu, fund manager of Chuangjin Hexin, believes that the recent decline in Hong Kong stocks is more due to external influences such as the United States and Europe, which has caused a greater impact on both funds and emotions. From the current position, most of the impact is reflected in the stock price, and the most violent time has passed or is about to pass.</p><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/601995\">CICC</a>Fortunately, the Hong Kong stock market already has several advantages. For example, the current market has fallen to a multi-year low, the valuation is already at a historical low, and the continuous inflow of southbound funds under the domestic easing policy is superimposed. This means that overseas Chinese stocks may show stronger resilience. If the internal and external environment improves, the Hong Kong stock market is expected to rebound even stronger in the future. Looking forward, if the Fed's policy at the end of the year can be retreated, it is expected to be the first opportunity to ease the pressure. The emergence of more positive catalysts in the future, such as the increase of large-scale growth stabilization policies and the mitigation of some risks, may promote the alleviation of the underallocation of foreign-funded institutions and the repricing of market risks.</p><p>Hang Seng Qianhai Fund said that overall, Hong Kong stocks are currently in a seriously oversold range. Among them, the proportion of Hang Seng Index constituent stocks higher than its 200-day moving average has been at one of the lowest levels in history, and the proportion of daily short selling transactions has reached the highest level in history. Although the geopolitical haze still hangs over the Hong Kong market, we have reason to believe that Hong Kong stocks may not be far from the historic bottom rebound, and the catalytic factors may depend on the fulfillment of the following two factors: First, the pace of the Federal Reserve's rate hike has slowed down; Second, China's economic growth is getting rid of the trough.</p><p>Looking forward to the market outlook, Li Zhiwu is more optimistic about long-term growth industries that are in line with the direction of national transformation, such as new energy, new materials, biomedicine, high-end equipment manufacturing, etc., as well as investment opportunities from the perspective of national security (energy security, supply chain security, etc.) development, such as oil transportation, thermal power, chip industry, etc.</p><p></body></html></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>The more it falls, the more it buys! With an average daily bottom-hunting of 2 billion Hong Kong stocks, these companies and funds continue to increase their weight, is the inflection point coming?</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nThe more it falls, the more it buys! With an average daily bottom-hunting of 2 billion Hong Kong stocks, these companies and funds continue to increase their weight, is the inflection point coming?\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/9\">\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/d482d56459984e8c86a6a137295b3c4f);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">券商中国 </p>\n<p class=\"h-time smaller\">2022-10-25 11:41</p>\n</div>\n</a>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><html><head></head><body><b>Abstract: The average daily bargain-hunting of Hong Kong stocks is 2 billion. These companies and funds continue to increase their stakes. Is the inflection point coming? Institution: Hong Kong stocks are currently in a seriously oversold range!</b><b>Hong Kong stocks fluctuate greatly, Li Jiachao: Ready to deal with it</b></p><p>Today, Hong Kong stocks staged a \"Jedi counterattack\"! As of press time, the Hang Seng Technology Index rose more than 5%, and the Hang Seng Index rose more than 1.4%.<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/06618\">JD Health</a>Rose more than 9%,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/00241\">Ali Health</a>, Kuaishou rose more than 8%,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/00285\">BYD Electronics</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/XPEV\">XPeng vehicles</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/JD\">JD.com</a>Rose more than 7%.</p><p>On the 24th, Hong Kong stocks suffered a heavy setback, and the Hang Seng Index fell by more than 1,000 points, hitting a 13-and-a-half-year low. Li Jiachao, Chief Executive of the Hong Kong Special Administrative Region, said in a meeting with reporters before attending the Executive Council today (25th) that the global economy is affected by various unstable factors, and Hong Kong needs to keep an eye on the economy. The main task of the SAR Government is to ensure the smooth and effective operation of various financial measures in Hong Kong, and closely monitor the dynamics of Hong Kong stocks to ensure the maintenance of market order. He acknowledged that the Hong Kong stock market has been highly unstable recently, but he stressed that the SAR Government is ready to deal with different financial risks. Li Jiachao suggested that investors should pay close attention to market trends and assess investment risks.</p><p><b>Hong Kong-listed companies continue to increase repurchases</b>In 2022, the global capital market will be turbulent, and listed companies will play \"repurchase cards\" one after another. With the continuous adjustment of the index, Hong Kong stocks have begun a repurchase storm. The number and total amount of Hong Kong stock companies participating in repurchases this year have continued to set new historical records. The total repurchase amount during the year exceeded HK $76 billion.</p><p>After-hours data on October 24 showed that,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/01299\">AIA</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/601633\">Great Wall Motors</a>And<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/01113\">Cheung Kong Group</a>A number of Hong Kong-listed companies have announced that they will continue to buy back in large quantities.</p><p>It is worth noting that southbound funds are also increasing their bargain hunting, with a net inflow of HK $6.691 billion into the Hong Kong stock market in a single day. This month, the total net purchase of Hong Kong stocks was HK $47.1 billion, and the net purchase during the year was HK $300 billion. Judging from the changes in domestic ETF shares, funds are also falling and buying more.</p><p><b>Overall, this year, the average daily average of southbound funds and repurchase funds totaled HK $1.99 billion, which continued to enter the market to buy Hong Kong stocks.</b></p><p><b>Hong Kong stocks repurchase HK $400 million per day</b>Recently, Hong Kong-listed companies have continued to increase repurchases. For example, the total single-day repurchase amount on October 21 was 481 million Hong Kong dollars, the total single-day repurchase amount on October 20 was 344 million Hong Kong dollars, and the total single-day repurchase amount on October 19 was 344 million Hong Kong dollars. The amount was 584 million Hong Kong dollars, and the total single-day repurchase amount on October 18 was 436 million Hong Kong dollars.</p><p>October 24th,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/01299\">AIA</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/02333\">Great Wall Motors</a>And<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/01113\">Cheung Kong Group</a>A number of Hong Kong stock companies issued repurchase announcements.</p><p><b><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/601633\">Great Wall Motors</a></b>It was announced that on October 24, 2022, it will spend approximately HK $359 million to repurchase 46.179 million shares of the company, and the repurchase price per share will be HK $7.67-HK $7.81. This time for<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/02333\">Great Wall Motors</a>Hong Kong stocks have been repurchased for the 19th time this year. The total amount of the company's repurchase this year is HK $2.78 billion. Great Wall Motor's Hong Kong stock price has stabilized recently, rising by more than 3% for 2 consecutive days.</p><p>On October 21, the third quarterly report of 2022 released by Great Wall Motors showed that in the third quarter, the total operating income was 37.346 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 29.4%, and the net profit attributable to the parent was 2.560 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 80.7%.</p><p><b>AIA</b>The announcement stated that on October 24, 2022, it will spend approximately HK $178 million to repurchase 2.8982 million shares at a repurchase price of HK $59.5-HK $65.15 per share. In March this year, AIA launched a US $10 billion repurchase plan for the next three years, and this repurchase is the 124th repurchase of AIA's Hong Kong stocks this year. The total repurchase amount of the company this year is HK $19.858 billion.</p><p><b>Cheung Kong Group</b>The announcement stated that on October 24, 2022, it will spend approximately HK $32.2319 million to repurchase 727,000 shares, and the repurchase price per share will be HK $43.95-HK $45. Cheung Kong Group has repurchased 52 times this year, with a total repurchase amount of HK $2.171 billion.</p><p>On the same day,<b><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/00656\">Fosun International</a></b>Spend approximately HK $47.0105 million to repurchase 10 million shares, and the repurchase price per share is HK $4.61-HK $4.8;<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/00019\">Swire Pacific A</a>Spend approximately HK $37.6268 million to repurchase 682,500 shares at a repurchase price of HK $53.55-HK $57.8 per share;<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/00151\">China Want Want</a>Spend approximately HK $16.8714 million to repurchase 3.323 million shares at a repurchase price of HK $5-HK $5.13;<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/00772\">Reading Group</a>Spend HK $11.9156 million to repurchase 595,000 shares at a repurchase price of HK $19.38-HK $20.65 per share;<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/00881\">Zhongsheng Holdings</a>Spend approximately HK $24.3671 million to repurchase 746,500 shares at a repurchase price of HK $31.9-HK $32.8 per share;<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/00354\">China Software International</a>It spent approximately HK $10.0403 million to repurchase 1.99 million shares at a repurchase price of HK $4.96-HK $5.09 per share.</p><p><b>For the whole year, the total repurchase amount of Hong Kong-stock companies during the year exceeded HK $76 billion, and the average daily repurchase amount exceeded HK $400 million. Among them, AIA, Great Wall Motors, Cheung Kong Group,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/00019\">Swire Pacific A</a>The total repurchase amount during the year has exceeded HK $1 billion, ranking 2nd, 5th, 7th and 8th in the total repurchase amount of Hong Kong-stock companies during the year. Companies with the largest repurchase amount during the year include<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/00700\">Tencent Holdings</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/HBC\">HSBC Holdings</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/02269\">WuXi Biologics</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/01810\">Xiaomi Group-W</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/00384\">China Gas</a>And<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/06618\">JD Health</a>Etc.</b></p><p><b>300 billion southbound funds bargain hunting Hong Kong stocks</b>The Hong Kong stock market continues to weaken amid multiple uncertainties, and market sentiment is sluggish.</p><p>However, southbound funds have continued to flow steadily since the beginning of the year, maintaining a daily net inflow trend since October, and the scale of inflows has recently shown a trend of acceleration against the trend.</p><p>On October 24, southbound funds bought a net purchase of HK $6.691 billion in Hong Kong stocks in a single day, the fifth single-day net purchase amount this year. The largest weekly inflow since mid-March, the net purchase amount since October was HK $47.097 billion, followed by HK $53.388 billion in June and HK $48.88 billion in March. Overall, southbound funds purchased a total of HK $300 billion during the year, showing the characteristics of increasing positions against the trend.</p><p>Looking at specific companies, companies with large corrections since October such as<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/00700\">Tencent</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/03690\">Meituan-W</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/02269\">WuXi Biologics</a>With<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/02015\">Li Auto-W</a>Wait for the main force of southbound capital inflows.</p><p>Echoing southbound funds, domestic ETF products tracking the Hong Kong market, while the net value growth rate continues to decline, have continued to rise in fund shares, showing an overall trend of \"buying more and more\".</p><p>As of October 24, China<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/03032\">Hang Seng Technology ETF</a>, ChinaAMC Hang Seng Internet Technology Industry ETF, ChinaAMC Hang Seng ETF, Huatai-PineBridge CSOP<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/03032\">Hang Seng Technology ETF</a>, Bosera Hang Seng Healthcare ETF, E Fund Hang Seng H-Share ETF, E Fund Hang Seng Technology ETF and Wells Fargo CSI Hong Kong Stock Connect Internet ETF all had net inflows of more than 2 billion yuan during the year, and the shares of many ETFs hit new highs.</p><p><b>Institution: Hong Kong stocks are currently in a seriously oversold range</b>As an offshore market dominated by foreign capital, Hong Kong stocks are greatly affected by international capital flows, and the market has fluctuated this year. Many institutions believe that the sentiment of the Hong Kong stock market is relatively fragile, but after a deep correction, Hong Kong stocks are currently in a seriously oversold range.</p><p>Li Zhiwu, fund manager of Chuangjin Hexin, believes that the recent decline in Hong Kong stocks is more due to external influences such as the United States and Europe, which has caused a greater impact on both funds and emotions. From the current position, most of the impact is reflected in the stock price, and the most violent time has passed or is about to pass.</p><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/601995\">CICC</a>Fortunately, the Hong Kong stock market already has several advantages. For example, the current market has fallen to a multi-year low, the valuation is already at a historical low, and the continuous inflow of southbound funds under the domestic easing policy is superimposed. This means that overseas Chinese stocks may show stronger resilience. If the internal and external environment improves, the Hong Kong stock market is expected to rebound even stronger in the future. Looking forward, if the Fed's policy at the end of the year can be retreated, it is expected to be the first opportunity to ease the pressure. The emergence of more positive catalysts in the future, such as the increase of large-scale growth stabilization policies and the mitigation of some risks, may promote the alleviation of the underallocation of foreign-funded institutions and the repricing of market risks.</p><p>Hang Seng Qianhai Fund said that overall, Hong Kong stocks are currently in a seriously oversold range. Among them, the proportion of Hang Seng Index constituent stocks higher than its 200-day moving average has been at one of the lowest levels in history, and the proportion of daily short selling transactions has reached the highest level in history. Although the geopolitical haze still hangs over the Hong Kong market, we have reason to believe that Hong Kong stocks may not be far from the historic bottom rebound, and the catalytic factors may depend on the fulfillment of the following two factors: First, the pace of the Federal Reserve's rate hike has slowed down; Second, China's economic growth is getting rid of the trough.</p><p>Looking forward to the market outlook, Li Zhiwu is more optimistic about long-term growth industries that are in line with the direction of national transformation, such as new energy, new materials, biomedicine, high-end equipment manufacturing, etc., as well as investment opportunities from the perspective of national security (energy security, supply chain security, etc.) development, such as oil transportation, thermal power, chip industry, etc.</p><p></body></html></p>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a9caa730718c4b63b3117ec8391cebed","relate_stocks":{"02333":"长城汽车","HSTECH":"恒生科技指数","02833":"恒指ETF","HSI":"恒生指数"},"source_url":"","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2278202297","content_text":"摘要：日均20亿抄底港股，这些公司和基金持续加码，拐点要来？机构：港股目前已处在严重超卖区间！港股波动巨大，李家超：已做好应对准备今日，港股上演“绝地反击”！截至发稿，恒生科技指数涨超5%，恒指涨超1.4%。京东健康涨超9%，阿里健康、快手涨超8%，比亚迪电子、小鹏汽车、京东涨超7%。24日，港股受到重挫，恒生指数跌逾千点，创13年半新低。香港特别行政区行政长官李家超今日（25日）出席行政会议前会见记者时表示，全球经济受各种不稳定因素影响，香港需对经济持续保持关注。特区政府的主要任务是确保香港各项金融措施流畅且有效运行，并密切监测港股动态，保证维护好市场秩序。他承认，近期香港股市有较高不稳定性，但他强调特区政府已作好准备，以应对不同的金融风险。李家超建议，投资者应密切关注市场走向，评估投资风险。港股上市公司持续加码回购2022年全球资本市场动荡不安，上市公司纷纷打出“回购牌”。伴随指数不断调整，港股开始了回购风暴，今年参与回购的港股公司数量和总金额不断刷新历史纪录，年内总回购金额超过760亿港元。10月24日盘后数据显示，友邦保险、长城汽车和长实集团等多家港股上市公司公告继续大手笔回购。值得注意的是，南向资金也在不断加码抄底，单日66.91亿港元净流入港股市场，本月合计净买入港股471亿港元，年内净买入3000亿港元。从国内ETF份额变动来看，资金也在越跌越买。总的来看，今年南向资金和回购资金日均合计有19.9亿港元在源源不断进场买入港股。港股日均回购4亿港元近期，港股上市公司持续加码回购，如10月21日单日回购总金额为4.81亿港元，10月20日单日总回购金额为3.44亿港元，10月19日单日总回购金额为5.84亿港元，10月18日单日总回购金额为4.36亿港元。10月24日，友邦保险、长城汽车和长实集团等多家港股公司发布回购公告。长城汽车发布公告，2022年10月24日斥资约3.59亿港元回购股份4617.9万股公司股票，每股回购价格为7.67港元-7.81港元。此次为长城汽车港股今年第19次回购，今年公司回购总金额27.8亿港元。长城汽车港股股价近日企稳，连续2日涨超3%。10月21日，长城汽车发布的2022年3季报显示，第三季度实现营业总收入373.46亿元，同比增长29.4%，归母净利润25.60亿元，同比增长80.7%。友邦保险公告表示，2022年10月24日斥资约1.78亿港元回购289.82万股，回购价为每股59.5港元-65.15港元。今年3月，友邦保险祭出未来三年100亿美元回购计划，而此次回购为友邦保险港股今年第124次回购，今年公司回购总金额198.58亿港元。长实集团公告称，2022年10月24日斥资约3223.19万港元回购股份72.7万股，每股回购价格为43.95港元-45港元。长实集团今年以来已经回购52次，回购总金额为21.71亿港元。同日，复星国际斥资约4701.05万港元回购股份1000万股，每股回购价格为4.61港元-4.8港元；太古股份公司A斥资约3762.68万港元回购68.25万股，回购价为每股53.55港元-57.8港元；中国旺旺斥资约1687.14万港元回购332.3万股，回购价为5港元-5.13港元；阅文集团斥资1191.56万港元回购59.5万股，回购价格为每股19.38港元-20.65港元；中升控股斥资约2436.71万港元回购74.65万股，回购价为每股31.9港元-32.8港元；中国软件国际斥资约1004.03万港元回购199万股，回购价为每股4.96港元-5.09港元。全年来看，港股公司年内总回购金额超过760亿港元，日均回购金额超过4亿港元，其中友邦保险、长城汽车、长实集团、太古股份公司A年内总回购金额均已超过10亿港元，分列港股公司年内回购总额榜第2、5、7、8位。年内回购金额居前的公司还有腾讯控股、汇丰控股、药明生物、小米集团-W、中国燃气和京东健康等。3000亿南向资金抄底港股港股市场在多重不确定因素下持续走弱，市场情绪低迷。不过，南向资金延续了自年初以来持续稳步流入的态势，进入10月以来保持每日净流入趋势，流入规模近期呈现逆势加速态势。10月24日，南向资金单日净买入港股66.91亿港元，为今年单日净买入额第五，最近一周（10月17-21日）整体流入规模达257亿港元，创下自3月中旬以来最大周度流入规模，10月以来净买入金额为470.97亿港元，次于6月的533.88亿港元和3月的488.8亿港元。整体来看，南向资金年内合计净买入3000亿港元，呈现逆势加仓特征。具体公司来看，10月以来回调幅度较大的公司如腾讯、美团-W、药明生物与理想汽车-W等为南向资金流入主力。与南向资金呼应的是，跟踪香港市场的国内ETF产品，在净值增长率持续走低的情况下，基金份额却不断攀升，整体呈现“越跌越买”的趋势。截至10月24日，华夏恒生科技ETF、华夏恒生互联网科技业ETF、华夏恒生ETF、华泰柏瑞南方东英恒生科技ETF、博时恒生医疗保健ETF、易方达恒生H股ETF、易方达恒生科技ETF和富国中证港股通互联网ETF年内资金净流入均超20亿元，其中多只ETF份额创新高。机构：港股目前已处在严重超卖区间港股作为外资为主的离岸市场，受国际资本流动影响较大，今年市场震荡起伏。多家机构认为港股市场情绪较为脆弱，不过经过深度回调后，目前港股已处在严重超卖区间。创金合信基金经理李志武认为，港股近期下跌更多在于美国和欧洲等外部影响，资金面和情绪面都造成较大的冲击，当前位置看，冲击大部分反映在股价上，最猛烈的时候已过去或即将过去。中金公司表示，所幸的是，港股市场已经具备几项优势，如当前市场已跌至数年低点，估值已经处于历史低位，叠加国内宽松政策下南向资金的持续流入。这意味着海外中资股可能展现出更强的韧性。如果内外部环境有所改善，港股市场未来反弹力度有望更大。往前看，美联储在年底的政策如果可以退坡有望成为第一个压力缓解的契机。而后续更多正面催化剂的出现，如大规模稳增长政策加码以及部分风险的缓解，可能推动外资机构低配情况缓解和市场风险的重新定价。恒生前海基金表示，整体来看，港股目前已处在严重超卖区间，其中恒生指数成份股高于其200日移动均线的占比已处于历史最低水平之一，并且每日卖空交易占比达历史最高水平区间。尽管地缘政治阴霾仍然笼罩香港市场，但我们有理由相信，港股距离历史性底部反弹或已经不远，催化因素或取决于以下两个因素的兑现：第一、美联储加息步伐放缓；第二、中国经济增长正摆脱低谷。展望后市，李志武更看好符合国家转型方向的长期成长性行业，如新能源、新材料、生物医药、高端装备制造等，以及国家安全（能源安全、供应链安全等）发展角度下的投资机会，如油运、火电、芯片行业等。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"02833":0.6,"02333":0.9,"HSTECH":0.9,"HSI":0.85}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":378,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":181288180,"gmtCreate":1623396446440,"gmtModify":1704202477684,"author":{"id":"3531263342349168","authorId":"3531263342349168","name":"长河_967","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/89806a7de18b6f81b77d0d232478a0fd","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3531263342349168","idStr":"3531263342349168"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Tiger is here！","listText":"Tiger is here！","text":"Tiger is here！","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/181288180","repostId":"1156453091","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1156453091","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1623333482,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1156453091?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2021-06-10 21:58","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"Taking history as a mirror, the interpretation and impact of soaring inflation in the United States","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1156453091","media":"川阅全球宏观","summary":"美国东部时间2021年6月10日，美国劳工部发布5月通胀数据。美国5月CPI同比升5.0%、核心CPI同比升3.8%，创2008年8月以来最大增幅。今年年初以来，美国通胀率加速上升，美联储6月议息会议在即，市场上通胀担忧挥之不去。我们回顾了历史上美国通胀的几次飙升，以便更好地理解本次的通胀及其影响：。1960年以来美国CPI同比破5%出现了4次(图1)。本次通胀飙升的主要原因在于疫情下的基数效应和供给短缺。房租价格走势对未来通胀的演绎有重要影响。","content":"<p>On June 10, 2021, Eastern Time, the U.S. Department of Labor released inflation data for May.<b>In May, the U.S. CPI rose 5.0% year-on-year, and the core CPI rose 3.8% year-on-year, the largest increase since August 2008. Since the beginning of this year, the inflation rate in the United States has accelerated, and the Federal Reserve's June interest rate meeting is just around the corner, and inflation concerns linger in the market.</b>We review several surges in U.S. inflation in history to better understand this inflation and its impact:</p><p><b>Since 1960, the US CPI has exceeded 5% year-on-year four times</b>(Figure 1). We conducted a review on the economic fundamentals and Fed policy during the CPI breaking 4%, breaking 5% and falling back (Table 1).</p><p><b>1968/06-1971/09</b>: The economy is in recession, but the remaining temperature of the large government spending and fiscal stimulus in the early stage is still there, and inflation continues to rise. The Federal Reserve tightened monetary policy in 1970 to curb inflation.</p><p><b>1973/03-1982/11：</b>Under the double blow of the food crisis and the oil crisis, the U.S. economy has fallen into stagflation, and supply shocks and costs have pushed up inflation. The government's price control failed, and the monetary policy lacked independence and lagged behind, which failed to curb inflation successfully.</p><p><b>1987/08-1991/07：</b>After emerging from stagflation, the U.S. economy experienced rapid growth, but in 1987, the economic growth began to slow down, and the pressure of rising wages and prices appeared, and the Federal Reserve tightened monetary policy.</p><p><b>2007/11-2008/09：</b>Soaring oil prices pushed up inflation and the financial crisis broke out. The primary task of the Federal Reserve's monetary policy was to rescue the market, and inflation was not in its focus.</p><p><b>The causes of current inflation and the inflation of 1973-1982 are relatively similar, both driven by costs.</b></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/327f6f12c3af30abee8fa0ae334f9763\" tg-width=\"1006\" tg-height=\"611\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0ca353ebcbaf95ba1da0b46a815d5f8b\" tg-width=\"1025\" tg-height=\"853\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><b>The main reasons for this surge in inflation are the base effect and supply shortages under the epidemic.</b>The U.S. CPI recorded 5.0% in May this year (the highest level since August 2008), but<b>From the perspective of the CPI index, the compound growth rate in May 2021 relative to May 2019 is only 2.5%.</b></p><p><b>For the interpretation of inflation this year, we focus on the two sub-items of used cars and rent.</b></p><p><b>One of the main drivers of inflation is used cars.</b>With the worsening of the epidemic in Southeast Asia, chip factories in many places have shut down, and the shortage of chips has caused car companies to cut production. The supply of new cars is insufficient, the demand for used cars has soared, and prices have soared (Figure 2). According to Manheim data, the price increase of used cars will exceed that of new cars in 2021 (Figure 3). In addition, other transportation-related price increases further expanded in May, and the price increase of transportation services doubled from 5.6% in April to 11.2%.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/884ed39a8682a3df05e8411f17f2105c\" tg-width=\"995\" tg-height=\"585\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/599b70f4fadb590d0d7b20254d4b1403\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"738\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><b>The trend of rent price has an important impact on the interpretation of future inflation.</b>The weight of rent in the U.S. CPI is relatively high (about 30%). Although the growth rate of rent is relatively moderate compared with other sub-items (a year-on-year increase of 2.2% in May this year), the growth rate slope has steepened since the beginning of the year (Figure 4), we<b>It is expected that rents will continue to rise moderately in the future due to the shortage of supply</b>。</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/869c4f313152d3a14769097f150fb674\" tg-width=\"1021\" tg-height=\"644\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><b>What is the trend of inflation expectations?</b></p><p>From a consumer perspective, Michigan's expected inflation rate data shows that 2%<b>U.S. consumer five-year inflation expectations jumped to 3.0% in May 2021 from 2.7% last month (Figure 5), but are still lower than the 3.5% that the Federal Reserve can tolerate.</b></p><p>From the perspective of policymakers, as mentioned in our previous report, the Fed focuses on monitoring inflation expectations, and the key indicators are<b>Common Inflation Expectations Index (CIE), CIE is quarterly data, and data for the second quarter of 2021 is expected to be released at the end of this month.</b></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/21708bec0c792eb9299eda62ba3cd077\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"666\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><b>How will inflation affect asset prices in the future?</b></p><p>We have analyzed the changes in the yields of the U.S. dollar, U.S. stocks and U.S. bonds in different time intervals after the CPI broke 4% among the above four major inflations (Table 2):<b>Inflation has a negative impact on the U.S. dollar and U.S. stocks. The former lags behind, while the latter is reflected within one month.</b>Interestingly, the impact of inflation on U.S. bond yields is irregular. For the research framework of U.S. bonds, please refer to our previous report.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/037d9e565ff952b13c942386e8d08506\" tg-width=\"1059\" tg-height=\"599\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><b>Risk warning:</b>Fed tightens monetary policy too quickly, geopolitical risks mount</p><p><hr>Congratulations on finding the letter E and participating in the \"Tiger Search\" activity. If you post a message \"Tiger is here\", you will receive 100 tiger coins. If you collect 7 pictures and leave a message, you will also receive a 7th anniversary limited gift box. (For details, please click<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/TW/181890541\" target=\"_blank\">[Seventh Anniversary Prize-winning Event] Tiger Search</a>Understand)</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b519142d901e1ef1ff2a2e443798687b\" tg-width=\"214\" tg-height=\"286\"></p>","source":"lsy1582083733592","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Taking history as a mirror, the interpretation and impact of soaring inflation in the United States</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nTaking history as a mirror, the interpretation and impact of soaring inflation in the United States\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">川阅全球宏观</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-06-10 21:58</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>On June 10, 2021, Eastern Time, the U.S. Department of Labor released inflation data for May.<b>In May, the U.S. CPI rose 5.0% year-on-year, and the core CPI rose 3.8% year-on-year, the largest increase since August 2008. Since the beginning of this year, the inflation rate in the United States has accelerated, and the Federal Reserve's June interest rate meeting is just around the corner, and inflation concerns linger in the market.</b>We review several surges in U.S. inflation in history to better understand this inflation and its impact:</p><p><b>Since 1960, the US CPI has exceeded 5% year-on-year four times</b>(Figure 1). We conducted a review on the economic fundamentals and Fed policy during the CPI breaking 4%, breaking 5% and falling back (Table 1).</p><p><b>1968/06-1971/09</b>: The economy is in recession, but the remaining temperature of the large government spending and fiscal stimulus in the early stage is still there, and inflation continues to rise. The Federal Reserve tightened monetary policy in 1970 to curb inflation.</p><p><b>1973/03-1982/11：</b>Under the double blow of the food crisis and the oil crisis, the U.S. economy has fallen into stagflation, and supply shocks and costs have pushed up inflation. The government's price control failed, and the monetary policy lacked independence and lagged behind, which failed to curb inflation successfully.</p><p><b>1987/08-1991/07：</b>After emerging from stagflation, the U.S. economy experienced rapid growth, but in 1987, the economic growth began to slow down, and the pressure of rising wages and prices appeared, and the Federal Reserve tightened monetary policy.</p><p><b>2007/11-2008/09：</b>Soaring oil prices pushed up inflation and the financial crisis broke out. The primary task of the Federal Reserve's monetary policy was to rescue the market, and inflation was not in its focus.</p><p><b>The causes of current inflation and the inflation of 1973-1982 are relatively similar, both driven by costs.</b></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/327f6f12c3af30abee8fa0ae334f9763\" tg-width=\"1006\" tg-height=\"611\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0ca353ebcbaf95ba1da0b46a815d5f8b\" tg-width=\"1025\" tg-height=\"853\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><b>The main reasons for this surge in inflation are the base effect and supply shortages under the epidemic.</b>The U.S. CPI recorded 5.0% in May this year (the highest level since August 2008), but<b>From the perspective of the CPI index, the compound growth rate in May 2021 relative to May 2019 is only 2.5%.</b></p><p><b>For the interpretation of inflation this year, we focus on the two sub-items of used cars and rent.</b></p><p><b>One of the main drivers of inflation is used cars.</b>With the worsening of the epidemic in Southeast Asia, chip factories in many places have shut down, and the shortage of chips has caused car companies to cut production. The supply of new cars is insufficient, the demand for used cars has soared, and prices have soared (Figure 2). According to Manheim data, the price increase of used cars will exceed that of new cars in 2021 (Figure 3). In addition, other transportation-related price increases further expanded in May, and the price increase of transportation services doubled from 5.6% in April to 11.2%.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/884ed39a8682a3df05e8411f17f2105c\" tg-width=\"995\" tg-height=\"585\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/599b70f4fadb590d0d7b20254d4b1403\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"738\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><b>The trend of rent price has an important impact on the interpretation of future inflation.</b>The weight of rent in the U.S. CPI is relatively high (about 30%). Although the growth rate of rent is relatively moderate compared with other sub-items (a year-on-year increase of 2.2% in May this year), the growth rate slope has steepened since the beginning of the year (Figure 4), we<b>It is expected that rents will continue to rise moderately in the future due to the shortage of supply</b>。</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/869c4f313152d3a14769097f150fb674\" tg-width=\"1021\" tg-height=\"644\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><b>What is the trend of inflation expectations?</b></p><p>From a consumer perspective, Michigan's expected inflation rate data shows that 2%<b>U.S. consumer five-year inflation expectations jumped to 3.0% in May 2021 from 2.7% last month (Figure 5), but are still lower than the 3.5% that the Federal Reserve can tolerate.</b></p><p>From the perspective of policymakers, as mentioned in our previous report, the Fed focuses on monitoring inflation expectations, and the key indicators are<b>Common Inflation Expectations Index (CIE), CIE is quarterly data, and data for the second quarter of 2021 is expected to be released at the end of this month.</b></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/21708bec0c792eb9299eda62ba3cd077\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"666\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><b>How will inflation affect asset prices in the future?</b></p><p>We have analyzed the changes in the yields of the U.S. dollar, U.S. stocks and U.S. bonds in different time intervals after the CPI broke 4% among the above four major inflations (Table 2):<b>Inflation has a negative impact on the U.S. dollar and U.S. stocks. The former lags behind, while the latter is reflected within one month.</b>Interestingly, the impact of inflation on U.S. bond yields is irregular. For the research framework of U.S. bonds, please refer to our previous report.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/037d9e565ff952b13c942386e8d08506\" tg-width=\"1059\" tg-height=\"599\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><b>Risk warning:</b>Fed tightens monetary policy too quickly, geopolitical risks mount</p><p><hr>Congratulations on finding the letter E and participating in the \"Tiger Search\" activity. If you post a message \"Tiger is here\", you will receive 100 tiger coins. If you collect 7 pictures and leave a message, you will also receive a 7th anniversary limited gift box. (For details, please click<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/TW/181890541\" target=\"_blank\">[Seventh Anniversary Prize-winning Event] Tiger Search</a>Understand)</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b519142d901e1ef1ff2a2e443798687b\" tg-width=\"214\" tg-height=\"286\"></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> source：<a href=\"https://www.zhitongcaijing.com/content/detail/492521.html\">川阅全球宏观</a></p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/93c3dba7c4b0e443e40fe6df5639434d","relate_stocks":{".DJI":"道琼斯"},"source_url":"https://www.zhitongcaijing.com/content/detail/492521.html","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1156453091","content_text":"美国东部时间2021年6月10日，美国劳工部发布5月通胀数据。美国5月CPI同比升5.0%、核心CPI同比升3.8%，创2008年8月以来最大增幅。今年年初以来，美国通胀率加速上升，美联储6月议息会议在即，市场上通胀担忧挥之不去。我们回顾了历史上美国通胀的几次飙升，以便更好地理解本次的通胀及其影响：\n1960年以来美国CPI同比破5%出现了4次(图1)。我们对CPI破4%、破5%至回落期间的经济基本面和美联储政策进行了复盘(表1)。\n1968/06-1971/09：经济陷入衰退，但前期大幅政府开支与财政刺激的余温仍在，通胀持续上升，美联储在1970年收紧货币政策以抑制通胀。\n1973/03-1982/11：粮食危机和石油危机的双重打击下，美国经济陷入滞胀，供给冲击与成本推升通胀。政府价格管制失败，货币政策缺乏独立性并且过于滞后，未能成功抑制通胀。\n1987/08-1991/07：走出滞胀后，美国经济经历了高速增长，但1987年开始经济增速放缓，并出现工资和价格上涨压力，美联储收紧货币政策。\n2007/11-2008/09：油价飙升推升通胀，金融危机爆发，美联储货币政策的首要任务在于救市，通胀不在其重点关注范围内。\n当前的通胀和1973-1982年通胀的成因较为相似，均为成本推动。\n\n本次通胀飙升的主要原因在于疫情下的基数效应和供给短缺。今年5月美国CPI录得5.0%(为2008年8月以来的最高水平)，但是从CPI指数角度，2021年5月相对于2019年5月的复合增速仅为2.5%。\n对于今年通胀的演绎，我们重点关注二手车和房租两个分项。\n通胀的主要推力之一为二手车。东南亚疫情恶化下多地芯片厂停工，芯片短缺导致车企减产。新车供应不足，二手车需求剧增，价格飙升(图2)。根据Manheim数据，2021年二手车售价增幅超越新车(图3)。此外，5月其他交通相关的价格涨幅进一步扩大，交通服务价格增幅从4月的5.6%扩大至11.2%，增幅翻倍。\n\n房租价格走势对未来通胀的演绎有重要影响。美国CPI中房租的权重较高(约30%)，尽管相对于其它分项，房租的增速相对温和(今年5月同比增2.2%)，但年初以来增速斜率陡峭化(图4)，我们预计受到供给短缺的影响，未来房租将会持续温和地上升。\n\n通胀预期走势如何?\n从消费者的角度，密西根预期通胀率数据显示，2021年5月美国消费者5年通胀预期从上月的2.7%跳升至3.0%(图5)，但是仍然低于美联储可以容忍的3.5%。\n从政策制定者角度，如我们此前报告所述，美联储注重通胀预期的监测，关键指标为共同通胀预期指数(CIE)，CIE为季度数据，预计2021年二季度的数据将于本月底公布。\n\n未来通胀将会怎样影响资产价格?\n我们复盘了上述四次大通胀中，CPI破4%后不同时间区间内美元、美股和美债收益率的变化(表2)：通胀对于美元、美股存在负面影响，前者较为滞后，后者1个月内即有体现。有趣的是，通胀对于美债收益率的影响不具规律性，关于美债的研究框架，请参考我们此前的报告。\n\n风险提示：美联储过快收紧货币政策，地缘政治风险加剧\n\n恭喜您找到了字母E，参与《老虎大搜查》活动，下帖留言“ Tiger is here” 即可获赠100虎币，如集齐7张图片并留言，还可获赠7周年限定礼盒。（详情请点击【七周年有奖活动】老虎大搜查 了解）","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{".DJI":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2310,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":181281985,"gmtCreate":1623396395947,"gmtModify":1704202475403,"author":{"id":"3531263342349168","authorId":"3531263342349168","name":"长河_967","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/89806a7de18b6f81b77d0d232478a0fd","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3531263342349168","idStr":"3531263342349168"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Tiger is here！","listText":"Tiger is here！","text":"Tiger is here！","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/181281985","repostId":"1140839418","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1140839418","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1623382205,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1140839418?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2021-06-11 11:30","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"A picture to understand Didi's prospectus: spread over 15 countries, with an average daily order volume of 41 million","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1140839418","media":"腾讯科技","summary":"6月11日消息，美国当地时间周四，$滴滴出行 $的运营主体小桔快智向美国证券交易委员会提交了IPO招股书，计划在纳斯达克股票市场或纽约证券交易所挂牌上市，股票代码为“DIDI”。根据滴滴披露的数据显示，目前滴滴已经在15个国家的4000多个城市和地区开通业务，年活跃用户数量4.93亿，年活跃司机数量1500万，日均单量4100万，年平台交易总额3410亿元，2018年至2021年Q1累计司机收入6000+亿元。","content":"<p>News on June 11, on Thursday, local time in the United States,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/DIDI\">Didi Chuxing</a>Xiaoju Kuaizhi, the operating entity of the company, submitted an IPO prospectus to the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) and plans to list on the Nasdaq stock market or the New York Stock Exchange under the stock code \"DIDI\".</p><p>According to the data disclosed by Didi, Didi has opened businesses in more than 4,000 cities and regions in 15 countries, with an annual number of active users of 493 million, an annual number of active drivers of 15 million, an average daily order volume of 41 million, and an annual platform The total transaction volume is 341 billion yuan, and the cumulative driver income from 2018 to Q1 2021 is 600 + billion yuan.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2a935c6b681f2f3744604b5596e29cac\" tg-width=\"2100\" tg-height=\"13686\"></p><p><hr>Congratulations on finding the letter I and participating in the \"Tiger Search\" activity. If you post a message \"Tiger is here\", you will receive 100 tiger coins. If you collect 7 pictures and leave a message, you will also receive a 7th anniversary limited gift box. (For details, please click<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/TW/181890541\" target=\"_blank\">[Seventh Anniversary Prize-winning Event] Tiger Search</a>Understand)<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ba72fe98df37f49a4d31b0a0684a03aa\" tg-width=\"214\" tg-height=\"286\"></p>","source":"txkj","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>A picture to understand Didi's prospectus: spread over 15 countries, with an average daily order volume of 41 million</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nA picture to understand Didi's prospectus: spread over 15 countries, with an average daily order volume of 41 million\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">腾讯科技</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-06-11 11:30</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>News on June 11, on Thursday, local time in the United States,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/DIDI\">Didi Chuxing</a>Xiaoju Kuaizhi, the operating entity of the company, submitted an IPO prospectus to the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) and plans to list on the Nasdaq stock market or the New York Stock Exchange under the stock code \"DIDI\".</p><p>According to the data disclosed by Didi, Didi has opened businesses in more than 4,000 cities and regions in 15 countries, with an annual number of active users of 493 million, an annual number of active drivers of 15 million, an average daily order volume of 41 million, and an annual platform The total transaction volume is 341 billion yuan, and the cumulative driver income from 2018 to Q1 2021 is 600 + billion yuan.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2a935c6b681f2f3744604b5596e29cac\" tg-width=\"2100\" tg-height=\"13686\"></p><p><hr>Congratulations on finding the letter I and participating in the \"Tiger Search\" activity. If you post a message \"Tiger is here\", you will receive 100 tiger coins. If you collect 7 pictures and leave a message, you will also receive a 7th anniversary limited gift box. (For details, please click<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/TW/181890541\" target=\"_blank\">[Seventh Anniversary Prize-winning Event] Tiger Search</a>Understand)<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ba72fe98df37f49a4d31b0a0684a03aa\" tg-width=\"214\" tg-height=\"286\"></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> source：<a href=\"https://new.qq.com/rain/a/20210611A02NC800\">腾讯科技</a></p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b9f14473f3e986de32cc80f6fd80b679","relate_stocks":{"DIDI":"滴滴(已退市)"},"source_url":"https://new.qq.com/rain/a/20210611A02NC800","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1140839418","content_text":"6月11日消息，美国当地时间周四，滴滴出行的运营主体小桔快智向美国证券交易委员会（SEC）提交了IPO招股书，计划在纳斯达克股票市场或纽约证券交易所挂牌上市，股票代码为“DIDI”。\n根据滴滴披露的数据显示，目前滴滴已经在15个国家的4000多个城市和地区开通业务，年活跃用户数量4.93亿，年活跃司机数量1500万，日均单量4100万，年平台交易总额3410亿元，2018年至2021年Q1累计司机收入6000+亿元。\n\n\n恭喜您找到了字母I，参与《老虎大搜查》活动，下帖留言“ Tiger is here” 即可获赠100虎币，如集齐7张图片并留言，还可获赠7周年限定礼盒。（详情请点击【七周年有奖活动】老虎大搜查 了解）","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"DIDI":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2788,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":181283899,"gmtCreate":1623396352311,"gmtModify":1704202474580,"author":{"id":"3531263342349168","authorId":"3531263342349168","name":"长河_967","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/89806a7de18b6f81b77d0d232478a0fd","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3531263342349168","idStr":"3531263342349168"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Tiger is here！","listText":"Tiger is here！","text":"Tiger is here！","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/181283899","repostId":"1156453091","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1156453091","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1623333482,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1156453091?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2021-06-10 21:58","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"Taking history as a mirror, the interpretation and impact of soaring inflation in the United States","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1156453091","media":"川阅全球宏观","summary":"美国东部时间2021年6月10日，美国劳工部发布5月通胀数据。美国5月CPI同比升5.0%、核心CPI同比升3.8%，创2008年8月以来最大增幅。今年年初以来，美国通胀率加速上升，美联储6月议息会议在即，市场上通胀担忧挥之不去。我们回顾了历史上美国通胀的几次飙升，以便更好地理解本次的通胀及其影响：。1960年以来美国CPI同比破5%出现了4次(图1)。本次通胀飙升的主要原因在于疫情下的基数效应和供给短缺。房租价格走势对未来通胀的演绎有重要影响。","content":"<p>On June 10, 2021, Eastern Time, the U.S. Department of Labor released inflation data for May.<b>In May, the U.S. CPI rose 5.0% year-on-year, and the core CPI rose 3.8% year-on-year, the largest increase since August 2008. Since the beginning of this year, the inflation rate in the United States has accelerated, and the Federal Reserve's June interest rate meeting is just around the corner, and inflation concerns linger in the market.</b>We review several surges in U.S. inflation in history to better understand this inflation and its impact:</p><p><b>Since 1960, the US CPI has exceeded 5% year-on-year four times</b>(Figure 1). We conducted a review on the economic fundamentals and Fed policy during the CPI breaking 4%, breaking 5% and falling back (Table 1).</p><p><b>1968/06-1971/09</b>: The economy is in recession, but the remaining temperature of the large government spending and fiscal stimulus in the early stage is still there, and inflation continues to rise. The Federal Reserve tightened monetary policy in 1970 to curb inflation.</p><p><b>1973/03-1982/11：</b>Under the double blow of the food crisis and the oil crisis, the U.S. economy has fallen into stagflation, and supply shocks and costs have pushed up inflation. The government's price control failed, and the monetary policy lacked independence and lagged behind, which failed to curb inflation successfully.</p><p><b>1987/08-1991/07：</b>After emerging from stagflation, the U.S. economy experienced rapid growth, but in 1987, the economic growth began to slow down, and the pressure of rising wages and prices appeared, and the Federal Reserve tightened monetary policy.</p><p><b>2007/11-2008/09：</b>Soaring oil prices pushed up inflation and the financial crisis broke out. The primary task of the Federal Reserve's monetary policy was to rescue the market, and inflation was not in its focus.</p><p><b>The causes of current inflation and the inflation of 1973-1982 are relatively similar, both driven by costs.</b></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/327f6f12c3af30abee8fa0ae334f9763\" tg-width=\"1006\" tg-height=\"611\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0ca353ebcbaf95ba1da0b46a815d5f8b\" tg-width=\"1025\" tg-height=\"853\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><b>The main reasons for this surge in inflation are the base effect and supply shortages under the epidemic.</b>The U.S. CPI recorded 5.0% in May this year (the highest level since August 2008), but<b>From the perspective of the CPI index, the compound growth rate in May 2021 relative to May 2019 is only 2.5%.</b></p><p><b>For the interpretation of inflation this year, we focus on the two sub-items of used cars and rent.</b></p><p><b>One of the main drivers of inflation is used cars.</b>With the worsening of the epidemic in Southeast Asia, chip factories in many places have shut down, and the shortage of chips has caused car companies to cut production. The supply of new cars is insufficient, the demand for used cars has soared, and prices have soared (Figure 2). According to Manheim data, the price increase of used cars will exceed that of new cars in 2021 (Figure 3). In addition, other transportation-related price increases further expanded in May, and the price increase of transportation services doubled from 5.6% in April to 11.2%.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/884ed39a8682a3df05e8411f17f2105c\" tg-width=\"995\" tg-height=\"585\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/599b70f4fadb590d0d7b20254d4b1403\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"738\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><b>The trend of rent price has an important impact on the interpretation of future inflation.</b>The weight of rent in the U.S. CPI is relatively high (about 30%). Although the growth rate of rent is relatively moderate compared with other sub-items (a year-on-year increase of 2.2% in May this year), the growth rate slope has steepened since the beginning of the year (Figure 4), we<b>It is expected that rents will continue to rise moderately in the future due to the shortage of supply</b>。</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/869c4f313152d3a14769097f150fb674\" tg-width=\"1021\" tg-height=\"644\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><b>What is the trend of inflation expectations?</b></p><p>From a consumer perspective, Michigan's expected inflation rate data shows that 2%<b>U.S. consumer five-year inflation expectations jumped to 3.0% in May 2021 from 2.7% last month (Figure 5), but are still lower than the 3.5% that the Federal Reserve can tolerate.</b></p><p>From the perspective of policymakers, as mentioned in our previous report, the Fed focuses on monitoring inflation expectations, and the key indicators are<b>Common Inflation Expectations Index (CIE), CIE is quarterly data, and data for the second quarter of 2021 is expected to be released at the end of this month.</b></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/21708bec0c792eb9299eda62ba3cd077\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"666\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><b>How will inflation affect asset prices in the future?</b></p><p>We have analyzed the changes in the yields of the U.S. dollar, U.S. stocks and U.S. bonds in different time intervals after the CPI broke 4% among the above four major inflations (Table 2):<b>Inflation has a negative impact on the U.S. dollar and U.S. stocks. The former lags behind, while the latter is reflected within one month.</b>Interestingly, the impact of inflation on U.S. bond yields is irregular. For the research framework of U.S. bonds, please refer to our previous report.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/037d9e565ff952b13c942386e8d08506\" tg-width=\"1059\" tg-height=\"599\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><b>Risk warning:</b>Fed tightens monetary policy too quickly, geopolitical risks mount</p><p><hr>Congratulations on finding the letter E and participating in the \"Tiger Search\" activity. If you post a message \"Tiger is here\", you will receive 100 tiger coins. If you collect 7 pictures and leave a message, you will also receive a 7th anniversary limited gift box. (For details, please click<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/TW/181890541\" target=\"_blank\">[Seventh Anniversary Prize-winning Event] Tiger Search</a>Understand)</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b519142d901e1ef1ff2a2e443798687b\" tg-width=\"214\" tg-height=\"286\"></p>","source":"lsy1582083733592","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Taking history as a mirror, the interpretation and impact of soaring inflation in the United States</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nTaking history as a mirror, the interpretation and impact of soaring inflation in the United States\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">川阅全球宏观</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-06-10 21:58</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>On June 10, 2021, Eastern Time, the U.S. Department of Labor released inflation data for May.<b>In May, the U.S. CPI rose 5.0% year-on-year, and the core CPI rose 3.8% year-on-year, the largest increase since August 2008. Since the beginning of this year, the inflation rate in the United States has accelerated, and the Federal Reserve's June interest rate meeting is just around the corner, and inflation concerns linger in the market.</b>We review several surges in U.S. inflation in history to better understand this inflation and its impact:</p><p><b>Since 1960, the US CPI has exceeded 5% year-on-year four times</b>(Figure 1). We conducted a review on the economic fundamentals and Fed policy during the CPI breaking 4%, breaking 5% and falling back (Table 1).</p><p><b>1968/06-1971/09</b>: The economy is in recession, but the remaining temperature of the large government spending and fiscal stimulus in the early stage is still there, and inflation continues to rise. The Federal Reserve tightened monetary policy in 1970 to curb inflation.</p><p><b>1973/03-1982/11：</b>Under the double blow of the food crisis and the oil crisis, the U.S. economy has fallen into stagflation, and supply shocks and costs have pushed up inflation. The government's price control failed, and the monetary policy lacked independence and lagged behind, which failed to curb inflation successfully.</p><p><b>1987/08-1991/07：</b>After emerging from stagflation, the U.S. economy experienced rapid growth, but in 1987, the economic growth began to slow down, and the pressure of rising wages and prices appeared, and the Federal Reserve tightened monetary policy.</p><p><b>2007/11-2008/09：</b>Soaring oil prices pushed up inflation and the financial crisis broke out. The primary task of the Federal Reserve's monetary policy was to rescue the market, and inflation was not in its focus.</p><p><b>The causes of current inflation and the inflation of 1973-1982 are relatively similar, both driven by costs.</b></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/327f6f12c3af30abee8fa0ae334f9763\" tg-width=\"1006\" tg-height=\"611\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0ca353ebcbaf95ba1da0b46a815d5f8b\" tg-width=\"1025\" tg-height=\"853\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><b>The main reasons for this surge in inflation are the base effect and supply shortages under the epidemic.</b>The U.S. CPI recorded 5.0% in May this year (the highest level since August 2008), but<b>From the perspective of the CPI index, the compound growth rate in May 2021 relative to May 2019 is only 2.5%.</b></p><p><b>For the interpretation of inflation this year, we focus on the two sub-items of used cars and rent.</b></p><p><b>One of the main drivers of inflation is used cars.</b>With the worsening of the epidemic in Southeast Asia, chip factories in many places have shut down, and the shortage of chips has caused car companies to cut production. The supply of new cars is insufficient, the demand for used cars has soared, and prices have soared (Figure 2). According to Manheim data, the price increase of used cars will exceed that of new cars in 2021 (Figure 3). In addition, other transportation-related price increases further expanded in May, and the price increase of transportation services doubled from 5.6% in April to 11.2%.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/884ed39a8682a3df05e8411f17f2105c\" tg-width=\"995\" tg-height=\"585\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/599b70f4fadb590d0d7b20254d4b1403\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"738\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><b>The trend of rent price has an important impact on the interpretation of future inflation.</b>The weight of rent in the U.S. CPI is relatively high (about 30%). Although the growth rate of rent is relatively moderate compared with other sub-items (a year-on-year increase of 2.2% in May this year), the growth rate slope has steepened since the beginning of the year (Figure 4), we<b>It is expected that rents will continue to rise moderately in the future due to the shortage of supply</b>。</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/869c4f313152d3a14769097f150fb674\" tg-width=\"1021\" tg-height=\"644\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><b>What is the trend of inflation expectations?</b></p><p>From a consumer perspective, Michigan's expected inflation rate data shows that 2%<b>U.S. consumer five-year inflation expectations jumped to 3.0% in May 2021 from 2.7% last month (Figure 5), but are still lower than the 3.5% that the Federal Reserve can tolerate.</b></p><p>From the perspective of policymakers, as mentioned in our previous report, the Fed focuses on monitoring inflation expectations, and the key indicators are<b>Common Inflation Expectations Index (CIE), CIE is quarterly data, and data for the second quarter of 2021 is expected to be released at the end of this month.</b></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/21708bec0c792eb9299eda62ba3cd077\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"666\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><b>How will inflation affect asset prices in the future?</b></p><p>We have analyzed the changes in the yields of the U.S. dollar, U.S. stocks and U.S. bonds in different time intervals after the CPI broke 4% among the above four major inflations (Table 2):<b>Inflation has a negative impact on the U.S. dollar and U.S. stocks. The former lags behind, while the latter is reflected within one month.</b>Interestingly, the impact of inflation on U.S. bond yields is irregular. For the research framework of U.S. bonds, please refer to our previous report.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/037d9e565ff952b13c942386e8d08506\" tg-width=\"1059\" tg-height=\"599\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><b>Risk warning:</b>Fed tightens monetary policy too quickly, geopolitical risks mount</p><p><hr>Congratulations on finding the letter E and participating in the \"Tiger Search\" activity. If you post a message \"Tiger is here\", you will receive 100 tiger coins. If you collect 7 pictures and leave a message, you will also receive a 7th anniversary limited gift box. (For details, please click<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/TW/181890541\" target=\"_blank\">[Seventh Anniversary Prize-winning Event] Tiger Search</a>Understand)</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b519142d901e1ef1ff2a2e443798687b\" tg-width=\"214\" tg-height=\"286\"></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> source：<a href=\"https://www.zhitongcaijing.com/content/detail/492521.html\">川阅全球宏观</a></p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/93c3dba7c4b0e443e40fe6df5639434d","relate_stocks":{".DJI":"道琼斯"},"source_url":"https://www.zhitongcaijing.com/content/detail/492521.html","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1156453091","content_text":"美国东部时间2021年6月10日，美国劳工部发布5月通胀数据。美国5月CPI同比升5.0%、核心CPI同比升3.8%，创2008年8月以来最大增幅。今年年初以来，美国通胀率加速上升，美联储6月议息会议在即，市场上通胀担忧挥之不去。我们回顾了历史上美国通胀的几次飙升，以便更好地理解本次的通胀及其影响：\n1960年以来美国CPI同比破5%出现了4次(图1)。我们对CPI破4%、破5%至回落期间的经济基本面和美联储政策进行了复盘(表1)。\n1968/06-1971/09：经济陷入衰退，但前期大幅政府开支与财政刺激的余温仍在，通胀持续上升，美联储在1970年收紧货币政策以抑制通胀。\n1973/03-1982/11：粮食危机和石油危机的双重打击下，美国经济陷入滞胀，供给冲击与成本推升通胀。政府价格管制失败，货币政策缺乏独立性并且过于滞后，未能成功抑制通胀。\n1987/08-1991/07：走出滞胀后，美国经济经历了高速增长，但1987年开始经济增速放缓，并出现工资和价格上涨压力，美联储收紧货币政策。\n2007/11-2008/09：油价飙升推升通胀，金融危机爆发，美联储货币政策的首要任务在于救市，通胀不在其重点关注范围内。\n当前的通胀和1973-1982年通胀的成因较为相似，均为成本推动。\n\n本次通胀飙升的主要原因在于疫情下的基数效应和供给短缺。今年5月美国CPI录得5.0%(为2008年8月以来的最高水平)，但是从CPI指数角度，2021年5月相对于2019年5月的复合增速仅为2.5%。\n对于今年通胀的演绎，我们重点关注二手车和房租两个分项。\n通胀的主要推力之一为二手车。东南亚疫情恶化下多地芯片厂停工，芯片短缺导致车企减产。新车供应不足，二手车需求剧增，价格飙升(图2)。根据Manheim数据，2021年二手车售价增幅超越新车(图3)。此外，5月其他交通相关的价格涨幅进一步扩大，交通服务价格增幅从4月的5.6%扩大至11.2%，增幅翻倍。\n\n房租价格走势对未来通胀的演绎有重要影响。美国CPI中房租的权重较高(约30%)，尽管相对于其它分项，房租的增速相对温和(今年5月同比增2.2%)，但年初以来增速斜率陡峭化(图4)，我们预计受到供给短缺的影响，未来房租将会持续温和地上升。\n\n通胀预期走势如何?\n从消费者的角度，密西根预期通胀率数据显示，2021年5月美国消费者5年通胀预期从上月的2.7%跳升至3.0%(图5)，但是仍然低于美联储可以容忍的3.5%。\n从政策制定者角度，如我们此前报告所述，美联储注重通胀预期的监测，关键指标为共同通胀预期指数(CIE)，CIE为季度数据，预计2021年二季度的数据将于本月底公布。\n\n未来通胀将会怎样影响资产价格?\n我们复盘了上述四次大通胀中，CPI破4%后不同时间区间内美元、美股和美债收益率的变化(表2)：通胀对于美元、美股存在负面影响，前者较为滞后，后者1个月内即有体现。有趣的是，通胀对于美债收益率的影响不具规律性，关于美债的研究框架，请参考我们此前的报告。\n\n风险提示：美联储过快收紧货币政策，地缘政治风险加剧\n\n恭喜您找到了字母E，参与《老虎大搜查》活动，下帖留言“ Tiger is here” 即可获赠100虎币，如集齐7张图片并留言，还可获赠7周年限定礼盒。（详情请点击【七周年有奖活动】老虎大搜查 了解）","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{".DJI":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2469,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":989861665,"gmtCreate":1582800615957,"gmtModify":1705288509974,"author":{"id":"3531263342349168","authorId":"3531263342349168","name":"长河_967","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/89806a7de18b6f81b77d0d232478a0fd","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3531263342349168","idStr":"3531263342349168"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"[开心]&nbsp;","listText":"[开心]&nbsp;","text":"[开心]","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/989861665","repostId":"1112965876","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":497,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":910338530,"gmtCreate":1575590267620,"gmtModify":1705415431162,"author":{"id":"3531263342349168","authorId":"3531263342349168","name":"长河_967","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/89806a7de18b6f81b77d0d232478a0fd","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3531263342349168","idStr":"3531263342349168"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"[捂脸]&nbsp;","listText":"[捂脸]&nbsp;","text":"[捂脸]","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/910338530","repostId":"1147209200","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":582,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0}],"lives":[]}