Last week's financial market was truly spectacular, though it still fell short compared to the face-changing Trump. We previously speculated that Trump would look for a way to step down, thereby helping the market stabilize and rebound. Although his final actions did indeed help risk assets find a bottom, his rhetoric of "I haven't surrendered, these are all strategies" and the weekend hints about "exemptions" strongly suggest that a second market bottom is highly probable1.The Failed Tariff StrategyLooking at the developments on the tariff issue, although things didn't unfold exactly as anticipated, the 90-day postponement essentially represents a delaying tactic forced upon the US after its original strategy failed. Judging from China's rapid responses and countermeasures, Trump's cards

Global investors and American voters may now regret elevating Trump—a leader whose erratic nature has repeatedly pushed financial markets to "witness history" within days. While Trump insists these developments are part of his grand plan, feedback from China and Europe clearly indicates his bluffing strategies have backfired. At this point, figuring out a graceful way to step back has become the most urgent task.Previously, we discussed how the new president would need to trigger a correction in overvalued assets while fostering his own leading stocks. However, the real challenge lies in managing the market disruption caused by these operational adjustments. The last double-digit weekly drop in U.S. equities happened five years ago during Trump's presidency, though this time, there's no ex

During phases of temporary market adjustments, the intensity and duration of such trends often surpass expectations. These circumstances can lead many investors to either hesitate in buying the dip or surrender their positions amid repeated fluctuations and reversals. This phenomenon is one of the underlying reasons for the common saying: "Holding onto losses stubbornly, but hesitating to hold onto profits." If your investment strategy is guided by the mindset of "breaking even is earning," then quick trading with low risk is a reasonable approach. However, for those seeking above-average returns, attempting to buy during uncertain or potentially risky market turning points becomes an essential skill.Currently, Bitcoin presents itself in a similar situation. On one hand, the market previou

At the latest Federal Reserve meeting last week, policymakers unsurprisingly chose to maintain the status quo on interest rates. The relatively dovish tone of the communication improved market sentiment slightly, yet significant uncertainty remains over the future trajectory of monetary policy. Opinions are split: some believe that former President Trump's anti-globalization policies might lead to inflation or stagflation, preventing the Fed from cutting rates, while others anticipate that recession risks will compel the Fed to implement aggressive monetary easing to stabilize the economy. Examining bond market data can help determine which of these scenarios is more plausible.Recent Trends in 10-Year Treasury YieldsSince peaking at over 5% during the previous U.S. rate-hiking cycle, the 1

After recognizing the mistake and previously being bullish on gold, its price has continued to rise with little resistance, recently surpassing the $3,000 milestone. With this milestone achieved, investors are concerned about how far this gold bull market can go and whether a correction or reversal might occur soon. This outlook explores these questions briefly.Firstly, regarding the bullish target, we previously discussed that once the triangular formation ended, new upside potential opened up, with the target for a bullish rally pointing towards the $3,300 resistance area. Based on current prices, there's roughly a 10% upside potential left in the medium term. Considering gold's historical volatility and its low points at the beginning of the year, this target aligns with past patterns.

The US stock market has experienced a continuous decline over the past three weeks, with an overall drop of around 5%. From the perspective of market trends over the past year and a half, this three-week period often marks an important node, indicating either the end of an adjustment or the conclusion of a phase. Therefore, whether the market can stabilize this week will have significant reference value.Using the S&P 500 as a reference, every adjustment since the middle of last year has lasted about three weeks, followed by a resumption of the upward trend. Even in slightly longer-term market trends with more weekly adjustments, there usually is a small rebound or correction after three weeks. If history repeats itself or if trends need to continue, the US stock market should not exper

Last night, former President Donald Trump made a statement indicating plans to include multiple cryptocurrencies as part of the reserve system. This announcement sparked a surge in the cryptocurrency market. However, despite the short-term boost, we believe the broader market trend will remain unaffected by such political moves. After the initial excitement subsides, the market is likely to return to its original rhythm and structure.Recent Trading Opportunities and Market MovementsFor some time, we have been positioning ourselves to capitalize on the buying opportunity around the 85,000-86,000 range. Following entry, prices unexpectedly dipped further, with last week’s price bottoming out at approximately 78,000. However, Friday's significant lower shadow and the support at the previous g

Last Friday, U.S. stock markets experienced a broad decline, with the Nasdaq dropping over 2% in a single day. This resulted in a clear bearish weekly candlestick pattern. Combined with similar performances from the other two major indices, concerns have arisen about whether the prolonged inability to reach new highs might lead to a sustained correction.The majority of the Nasdaq's losses last week were concentrated on Friday. While the market remains in a consolidation phase at high levels and there are no apparent adverse developments in market sentiment or themes, auxiliary indicators suggest caution regarding a potential pullback. At the current level, chasing highs is not advisable. Whether it is feasible to attempt short positions depends on how the next one to two weeks play out aro

In the past one to two weeks, various asset classes have shown slight divergences in their movements. Notably, the U.S. dollar, influenced by Trump's tariff-related discussions, experienced a pronounced spike followed by a pullback, with short-term corrections continuing. Although the market’s broader retracement is not yet over, the U.S. dollar remains one of the strongest currencies in the medium term. Therefore, when prices are favorable, trading the dollar with a focus on wealth management and systematic investment remains a viable option. Comparatively, the dollar is not ideal for speculative trading, as achieving excess returns in this asset class is more challenging.Advantages of the U.S. DollarThe dollar holds several notable advantages, as previously discussed. Here, we will brief

I've long known that Trump doesn't play by the rules. But the fact that he launched a MEME coin over the weekend still makes me think that if he really gets a second term, he might bring huge risks to the financial markets. And this risk isn't just in the cryptocurrency market. You know, the audience in the cryptocurrency market is relatively small. This risk is likely to spread to the US stock market and even affect the global market.This weekend, people in WeChat Moments and groups were talking about how people got rich overnight with Trump coin. Actually, this kind of thing isn't new. People have made a lot of money from those so-called "shitcoins" and MEME coins before. And Elon Musk is also someone who likes to promote coins. But Trump is about to become the president again. Plus his

In the first week of the year, the U.S. stock index rebounded in a relatively calm environment. As weekly-level lows appear, important swing lows also appear simultaneously. Throughout January, if the stock price goes down again and breaks through the support, we need to be alert to large-scale correction that will follow.Due to the poor performance of heavyweights in the Nasdaq Index, there was actually a slight puncture in the previous weekly market. However, considering the overall synchronization of the index, we still believe that the support area formed by 21000/20983 has not fallen. The last time the Nasdaq broke weekly level was in 24 years, when it fell from 20,000 to around 17,000 at most. In addition, it should be noted that from the monthly chart, the index has left an obvious

Last week's Federal Reserve decision had no variables in terms of interest rates, and the interest rate cut of 25 basis points was in line with market expectations. However, at the press conference after the meeting, Chairman Powell gave the expectation of only two interest rate cuts in 2025, which was regarded as an eagle statement, so the market showed an obvious overall general decline. Although the short-term decline is obvious, for some trending varieties, the bad news is likely to bring better entry opportunities.From the news point of view, both the dot plot and the Fed's statement hint at an upward trend in medium and long-term interest rates. But it should be noted that the Fed is not much better at predicting the long-term economy than most market participants. This means that th

Judging from the existing answers, it is naturally yes. But what needs to be clear is that there is still more than a month before Trump actually moves into the White House.Before the general election, we once discussed the market in Bitcoin, when the price was still brewing a breakthrough below 70,000. "There is not much time left for the bulls" was the main judgment at the time. Because structurally speaking, the adjustment cycle is completely sufficient and sufficient for more than half a year, and that price position, whether it is Harris or Trump, will push for a breakthrough. Then sure enough, the bulls made the final breakthrough. Of course, it must be admitted that after the election results were released, this short-squeeze rise still exceeded expectations. Previously, the high po

Nvidia, the leader of U.S. stocks in the past two years, has not performed well in the past few weeks. Although the financial report is not bad, as the main promoter of the "predecessor" Biden, it is obvious that some glory is no longer in the context of Trump's second entry into the palace. The fall in the weekly level of the previous week directly affected the price pattern. Will this mean that the U.S. stock market will take the lead in the change in the future cycle, or will the trend itself change?Nvidia once fell below the weekly low at the end of October last week. Although it finally recovered and left a lower shadow line, it still ended the bullish pattern of "higher lows" after the June adjustment. Looking forward, the fall of the weekly swing low can be traced back to a year ago