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東海吉龍

坚持自己的选择与目标！希望定能实现梦想！

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2021-05-22

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2021-05-12

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Tiger Brokers was included in the MSCI China All-Stock Index!

2021-05-02

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Is the GDP of the United States strong or weak in the first quarter?

2020-09-19

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@Owen_Tradinghouse:10个点的调整已经结束了吗？关于当前美股大盘，这里有你应了解的一切

2021-05-24

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2021-05-07

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Dropbox Q1 revenue of $510 million, net income up 21% year over year

2021-04-26

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Nonferrous sector moves higher as copper soars to decade high

2020-12-11

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2021-05-27

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The United States buys time with money, and the whole world enters the "new mediocre era"

2021-04-12

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Among the three favorite stocks of "Sister Wood", who is most worthy of investors to "Call"?

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After the news was announced, Xiaomi opened higher at HK$ 28.25/share in early trading on the 26th, and the highest reached HK$ 28.50/share.</p><p>It is worth mentioning that on May 26th, Xiaomi also announced its first quarter 2021 performance report. At the same time, the Redmi Note 10 series of phones was released.</p><p><b>Xiaomi wins the case</b></p><p>The author learned that on January 14th, the US government departments included nine Chinese enterprises including Xiaomi in the so-called blacklist \"related to the Chinese military\", preventing American investors from investing in these enterprises. On January 29th, Eastern Time, Xiaomi Group sued the U.S. Defense Department and the U.S. Treasury Department in the U.S. District Court for the District of Columbia.</p><p>At that time, Xiaomi announced that the company noticed that the United States included the company in the relevant list. Xiaomi said in the announcement that the company has always adhered to legal and compliant operation, and abided by the relevant laws and regulations of the place of business. Its services and products are all used for civil or commercial use. The Company will take appropriate measures to protect the interests of the Company and its shareholders. Xiaomi emphasized in the announcement at that time: \"Everything is running normally at present.\"</p><p>In March, Xiaomi issued a statement saying that the U.S. court had issued a temporary injunction suspending the executive order identifying Xiaomi as a Chinese military-related enterprise.</p><p>On the 26th, Lei Jun said in Weibo, \"We won.\" On the same day, the topic of \"Xiaomi was removed from the US sanctions list\" has been ranked second in Weibo hot search, causing heated discussion among netizens.</p><p>Xiaomi's victory marks a \"rare victory\" for Chinese technology companies in their confrontation with U.S. government departments. After all, there are many differences between China and the United States on trade and other issues. This is a good sign for Chinese enterprises to defend their rights and interests internationally.</p><p><b>\"Breakthrough\" high-end</b></p><p>Xiaomi's financial report for the first quarter of 2021 shows that in the first quarter of 2021, Xiaomi Group's total revenue was 76.9 billion yuan, an increase of 54.7%, and its revenue and profit reached another record high. Among them, the high-end effect of mobile phones is further highlighted, which has become an important driving force for Xiaomi's performance improvement.</p><p>At the same time, the explosion of high-end product performance and the gradual enrichment of high-end product matrix show that Xiaomi mobile phones have successfully established themselves in the high-end market. In the future, Xiaomi high-end series products will continue to inject greater growth momentum and space into Xiaomi Group.</p><p>Wang Xiang, partner and president of Xiaomi Group, said on the conference call, \"Our total revenue and adjusted net profit have both created a record high in a single quarter in Xiaomi's history. In the first quarter, smartphone shipments ranked third in the world, with a market share of 14.1%, and shipments increased by 62% year-on-year, still maintaining a rapid growth rate among major manufacturers. This quarter, the performance of mobile phone business was mainly due to our consolidated position in the high-end market.\"</p><p>For a long time, \"cost performance\" has been Xiaomi's golden signature, and Xiaomi has attracted a large number of young users. However, the capital market pays more attention to profits, and because Xiaomi's mobile phone has high cost performance and low profit, the initial stock price has been delayed, and it didn't change rapidly until 2020.</p><p>Through the first quarterly report of this year, it can be seen that Xiaomi's high-end mobile phones have grown significantly and have an advantage in market share. According to the financial report, in the first quarter, the global shipment of smartphones with Xiaomi mobile phones priced at RMB 3,000 or more in mainland China and 300 euros or more overseas exceeded 4 million units. In addition, according to third-party data, the market share of smartphones priced in the range of RMB4,000 to RMB6,000 in Mainland China increased from 5.5% in the same period last year to 16.1% in the current quarter.</p><p>It is understood that in March, Xiaomi released 3 high-end mobile phones, Xiaomi 11Pro, Xiaomi 11ULtra and MIXFOLD. From January to April, cumulative orders for several phones, including Mi 11, Mi 11Pro and Ultra, exceeded 3 million units worldwide. At the same time, Xiaomi 11 series ranks first in the sales volume of Android mobile phones with a price of 4,000~6,000 yuan in the Chinese mainland market.</p><p>Low-end mobile phones compete for share, and high-end mobile phones make profits. Xiaomi's net profit in the first quarter broke a record, and the outstanding performance of Xiaomi's high-end mobile phones contributed a lot, which also means that Xiaomi has gained a firm foothold in the field of high-end mobile phones.</p><p>It is worth mentioning that in addition to maintaining the advantages of online sales channels, the shortcomings of Xiaomi's offline channels are being quickly made up for. By the end of April, the number of offline stores of Xiaomi Home exceeded 5,500.</p><p><b>Innovation-driven growth</b></p><p>Wang Xiang said on the conference call that the reason why Xiaomi can achieve good results in the high-end market is mainly due to technological innovation. \"To give a few examples, I have been talking about our continuous R&D investment in several quarters. First of all, in the field of cameras, Ultra has 143 points in the DXOMARK score, ranking first in the list of professional mobile phone cameras in the whole world. At the same time, we also launched the GN2 image sensor, which is also the largest image sensor in the industry at present. In terms of charging, Xiaomi 11Ultra debuted the silicon-oxygen anode battery, which accelerated the electric shock of the mobile phone, made the body thinner and lighter, and also supported 67-watt wireless flash charging, which also set a series of models in the wireless charging industry. \"</p><p>Unlike the previous growth driven by \"cost performance\", the cost performance of Xiaomi products still exists, but the role of technology and innovation in helping Xiaomi's performance growth has become more and more prominent. According to the financial report, in the first quarter, Xiaomi's R&D investment reached 3 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 61.0%.</p><p>The improvement of core technical capabilities has brought about an overall improvement of Xiaomi's overall high-end production capacity and a substantial improvement in product capabilities. Specifically reflected in products, Xiaomi 11 series high-end products have more than ten world premieres. At present, Xiaomi has international leading experimental capabilities in more than a dozen disciplines such as camera, audio, radio frequency, antenna, electromagnetic compatibility, baseband, structure, optics, touch, thermal design, power consumption, battery, reliability and software stability.</p><p>For example, Xiaomi has achieved the global lead in unlimited charging technology. At the end of March, at the launch of Xiaomi 11 series products, Xiaomi launched the silicon-oxygen anode battery in the world. Silicon-oxide anode batteries with high energy density, long life and high performance have once again raised a new industry threshold. For another example, Xiaomi's third-generation under-screen proactive scheme has reached the commercial standard of mass production and is in a leading position in the industry.</p><p>With huge R&D investment, Xiaomi's R&D achievements are constantly landing. MIX FOLD, Xiaomi's ultra-high-end flagship model, which was launched in March this year, adopts a number of black technologies such as 2K + comprehensive folding screen and liquid lens. The price starts from 9,999 yuan, which makes scientific and technological innovation and cost performance perfect.</p><p>It can be seen that the high-end of Xiaomi mobile phone is the high-end supported by technology. The breakthrough of technological capabilities will bring about the improvement of Xiaomi's production capacity efficiency, product experience and quality, and will continue to lay a solid foundation for Xiaomi to open up new high-end growth space. Xiaomi's high-end definition by technology will also make the competition of high-end mobile phones enter a new stage.</p><p>At the same time, Xiaomi's \"mobile phone × AIoT\" strategy has entered a rapid harvest period. There are more and more consumers because Xiaomi has chosen Xiaomi Smart Home; More and more consumers, because of the potential of Xiaomi smart home, choose Xiaomi mobile phones. In March 2021, the number of monthly active users of AI assistant \"Xiao Ai Classmate\" reached 93 million; The number of monthly active users of Mijia APP increased by 22.8% year-on-year to 49.2 million. At the end of March, Xiaomi officially announced that he would build a car, and his mobile phone × AIoT + would build a car. What kind of spark could it collide with, giving people infinite reverie.</p><p>Online has been Xiaomi's home for a long time, and the online market share of mobile phones doubled in the first quarter. In the first quarter, Xiaomi accelerated the expansion of offline stores of Xiaomi Home, exceeding 5,500 by the end of April.</p><p>At first, Xiaomi focused on the line, which was conducive to saving costs and saving more cost performance. Nowadays, a large number of Xiaomi AIoT explosive products have landed, and the consumer demand for Xiaomi AIoT home devices in the sinking market below the third tier is rising. A Xiaomi home sells mobile phones and home devices at the same time, which can not only meet the actual needs of consumers, but also effectively reduce marketing costs compared with selling only mobile phones. This has become the unique advantage of Xiaomi mobile phone brand.</p>","source":"lsy1571439018386","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Millet's Growth and Breakthrough: Technology Drives Breakthrough to the High-end</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nMillet's Growth and Breakthrough: Technology Drives Breakthrough to the High-end\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">中国经营报</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-05-29 14:47</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>Recently, good news from Xiaomi continues one after another.</p><p>On May 26th, Lei Junfa, founder, chairman and CEO of Xiaomi Group, said in Weibo, \"At 4: 09 pm EST on May 25th, the District Court of the District of Columbia issued a final judgment, lifting the identification of the company's 'Chinese military company' by the U.S. defense department and officially revoking all restrictions on American investors' purchase or holding of the company's securities.\"</p><p>That means the lawsuit, which lasted nearly 4 months, has finally been settled. After the news was announced, Xiaomi opened higher at HK$ 28.25/share in early trading on the 26th, and the highest reached HK$ 28.50/share.</p><p>It is worth mentioning that on May 26th, Xiaomi also announced its first quarter 2021 performance report. At the same time, the Redmi Note 10 series of phones was released.</p><p><b>Xiaomi wins the case</b></p><p>The author learned that on January 14th, the US government departments included nine Chinese enterprises including Xiaomi in the so-called blacklist \"related to the Chinese military\", preventing American investors from investing in these enterprises. On January 29th, Eastern Time, Xiaomi Group sued the U.S. Defense Department and the U.S. Treasury Department in the U.S. District Court for the District of Columbia.</p><p>At that time, Xiaomi announced that the company noticed that the United States included the company in the relevant list. Xiaomi said in the announcement that the company has always adhered to legal and compliant operation, and abided by the relevant laws and regulations of the place of business. Its services and products are all used for civil or commercial use. The Company will take appropriate measures to protect the interests of the Company and its shareholders. Xiaomi emphasized in the announcement at that time: \"Everything is running normally at present.\"</p><p>In March, Xiaomi issued a statement saying that the U.S. court had issued a temporary injunction suspending the executive order identifying Xiaomi as a Chinese military-related enterprise.</p><p>On the 26th, Lei Jun said in Weibo, \"We won.\" On the same day, the topic of \"Xiaomi was removed from the US sanctions list\" has been ranked second in Weibo hot search, causing heated discussion among netizens.</p><p>Xiaomi's victory marks a \"rare victory\" for Chinese technology companies in their confrontation with U.S. government departments. After all, there are many differences between China and the United States on trade and other issues. This is a good sign for Chinese enterprises to defend their rights and interests internationally.</p><p><b>\"Breakthrough\" high-end</b></p><p>Xiaomi's financial report for the first quarter of 2021 shows that in the first quarter of 2021, Xiaomi Group's total revenue was 76.9 billion yuan, an increase of 54.7%, and its revenue and profit reached another record high. Among them, the high-end effect of mobile phones is further highlighted, which has become an important driving force for Xiaomi's performance improvement.</p><p>At the same time, the explosion of high-end product performance and the gradual enrichment of high-end product matrix show that Xiaomi mobile phones have successfully established themselves in the high-end market. In the future, Xiaomi high-end series products will continue to inject greater growth momentum and space into Xiaomi Group.</p><p>Wang Xiang, partner and president of Xiaomi Group, said on the conference call, \"Our total revenue and adjusted net profit have both created a record high in a single quarter in Xiaomi's history. In the first quarter, smartphone shipments ranked third in the world, with a market share of 14.1%, and shipments increased by 62% year-on-year, still maintaining a rapid growth rate among major manufacturers. This quarter, the performance of mobile phone business was mainly due to our consolidated position in the high-end market.\"</p><p>For a long time, \"cost performance\" has been Xiaomi's golden signature, and Xiaomi has attracted a large number of young users. However, the capital market pays more attention to profits, and because Xiaomi's mobile phone has high cost performance and low profit, the initial stock price has been delayed, and it didn't change rapidly until 2020.</p><p>Through the first quarterly report of this year, it can be seen that Xiaomi's high-end mobile phones have grown significantly and have an advantage in market share. According to the financial report, in the first quarter, the global shipment of smartphones with Xiaomi mobile phones priced at RMB 3,000 or more in mainland China and 300 euros or more overseas exceeded 4 million units. In addition, according to third-party data, the market share of smartphones priced in the range of RMB4,000 to RMB6,000 in Mainland China increased from 5.5% in the same period last year to 16.1% in the current quarter.</p><p>It is understood that in March, Xiaomi released 3 high-end mobile phones, Xiaomi 11Pro, Xiaomi 11ULtra and MIXFOLD. From January to April, cumulative orders for several phones, including Mi 11, Mi 11Pro and Ultra, exceeded 3 million units worldwide. At the same time, Xiaomi 11 series ranks first in the sales volume of Android mobile phones with a price of 4,000~6,000 yuan in the Chinese mainland market.</p><p>Low-end mobile phones compete for share, and high-end mobile phones make profits. Xiaomi's net profit in the first quarter broke a record, and the outstanding performance of Xiaomi's high-end mobile phones contributed a lot, which also means that Xiaomi has gained a firm foothold in the field of high-end mobile phones.</p><p>It is worth mentioning that in addition to maintaining the advantages of online sales channels, the shortcomings of Xiaomi's offline channels are being quickly made up for. By the end of April, the number of offline stores of Xiaomi Home exceeded 5,500.</p><p><b>Innovation-driven growth</b></p><p>Wang Xiang said on the conference call that the reason why Xiaomi can achieve good results in the high-end market is mainly due to technological innovation. \"To give a few examples, I have been talking about our continuous R&D investment in several quarters. First of all, in the field of cameras, Ultra has 143 points in the DXOMARK score, ranking first in the list of professional mobile phone cameras in the whole world. At the same time, we also launched the GN2 image sensor, which is also the largest image sensor in the industry at present. In terms of charging, Xiaomi 11Ultra debuted the silicon-oxygen anode battery, which accelerated the electric shock of the mobile phone, made the body thinner and lighter, and also supported 67-watt wireless flash charging, which also set a series of models in the wireless charging industry. \"</p><p>Unlike the previous growth driven by \"cost performance\", the cost performance of Xiaomi products still exists, but the role of technology and innovation in helping Xiaomi's performance growth has become more and more prominent. According to the financial report, in the first quarter, Xiaomi's R&D investment reached 3 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 61.0%.</p><p>The improvement of core technical capabilities has brought about an overall improvement of Xiaomi's overall high-end production capacity and a substantial improvement in product capabilities. Specifically reflected in products, Xiaomi 11 series high-end products have more than ten world premieres. At present, Xiaomi has international leading experimental capabilities in more than a dozen disciplines such as camera, audio, radio frequency, antenna, electromagnetic compatibility, baseband, structure, optics, touch, thermal design, power consumption, battery, reliability and software stability.</p><p>For example, Xiaomi has achieved the global lead in unlimited charging technology. At the end of March, at the launch of Xiaomi 11 series products, Xiaomi launched the silicon-oxygen anode battery in the world. Silicon-oxide anode batteries with high energy density, long life and high performance have once again raised a new industry threshold. For another example, Xiaomi's third-generation under-screen proactive scheme has reached the commercial standard of mass production and is in a leading position in the industry.</p><p>With huge R&D investment, Xiaomi's R&D achievements are constantly landing. MIX FOLD, Xiaomi's ultra-high-end flagship model, which was launched in March this year, adopts a number of black technologies such as 2K + comprehensive folding screen and liquid lens. The price starts from 9,999 yuan, which makes scientific and technological innovation and cost performance perfect.</p><p>It can be seen that the high-end of Xiaomi mobile phone is the high-end supported by technology. The breakthrough of technological capabilities will bring about the improvement of Xiaomi's production capacity efficiency, product experience and quality, and will continue to lay a solid foundation for Xiaomi to open up new high-end growth space. Xiaomi's high-end definition by technology will also make the competition of high-end mobile phones enter a new stage.</p><p>At the same time, Xiaomi's \"mobile phone × AIoT\" strategy has entered a rapid harvest period. There are more and more consumers because Xiaomi has chosen Xiaomi Smart Home; More and more consumers, because of the potential of Xiaomi smart home, choose Xiaomi mobile phones. In March 2021, the number of monthly active users of AI assistant \"Xiao Ai Classmate\" reached 93 million; The number of monthly active users of Mijia APP increased by 22.8% year-on-year to 49.2 million. At the end of March, Xiaomi officially announced that he would build a car, and his mobile phone × AIoT + would build a car. What kind of spark could it collide with, giving people infinite reverie.</p><p>Online has been Xiaomi's home for a long time, and the online market share of mobile phones doubled in the first quarter. In the first quarter, Xiaomi accelerated the expansion of offline stores of Xiaomi Home, exceeding 5,500 by the end of April.</p><p>At first, Xiaomi focused on the line, which was conducive to saving costs and saving more cost performance. Nowadays, a large number of Xiaomi AIoT explosive products have landed, and the consumer demand for Xiaomi AIoT home devices in the sinking market below the third tier is rising. A Xiaomi home sells mobile phones and home devices at the same time, which can not only meet the actual needs of consumers, but also effectively reduce marketing costs compared with selling only mobile phones. This has become the unique advantage of Xiaomi mobile phone brand.</p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> source：<a href=\"https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s/w6a0xe3q02DwKBofdkhDJA\">中国经营报</a></p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3df686d3a6ca977e8c6841905eb7e18c","relate_stocks":{"01810":"小米集团-W"},"source_url":"https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s/w6a0xe3q02DwKBofdkhDJA","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1125469611","content_text":"近日，小米好消息接连不断。\n5月26日，小米集团创始人、董事长兼首席执行官雷军发微博称，“美东时间5月25日下午4时09分，美国哥伦比亚特区地方法院颁发了最终判决，解除了美国国防部门对于本公司‘中国军方公司’的认定，正式撤销了美国投资者购买或持有该公司证券的全部限制。”\n这意味着持续近4个月的诉讼终于得到了解决。消息公布后，小米26日早盘跳空高开于28.25港元/股，最高上探至28.50港元/股。\n值得一提的是，5月26日，小米还公布了2021年第一季度业绩报告。同时，发布了Redmi Note 10系列手机。\n小米胜诉\n笔者了解到，1 月 14 日，美国政府部门将小米等 9 家中国企业列入所谓“与中国军方相关”的黑名单中，阻止美国投资者对这些企业进行投资。美国东部时间 1 月 29 日，小米集团在美国哥伦比亚特区地方法院起诉美国国防部门和美国财政部门。\n当时，小米发布公告称，公司注意到，美国将本公司列入相关清单。小米在公告中称，公司一直坚持合法合规经营，并遵守经营地的相关法律法规，其服务和产品皆用于民用或商用。公司将采取合适的措施保护公司和股东的利益。小米在当时的公告中强调：“目前运转一切正常。”\n今年3月，小米公司发布声明称，美国法院已颁布临时禁令，暂停了把小米认定为中国涉军企业的行政命令。\n26日，雷军在微博称“我们赢了。”同日，“小米被移出美国制裁清单”话题已登上微博热搜第二位，引发网友热议。\n小米的胜诉，标志着中国科技企业在与美国政府部门的交锋中获得了“罕见的胜利”，毕竟中美两国在贸易等问题上存在不少分歧。这对于中国企业而言，是在国际上捍卫自身权益的好兆头。\n“突围”高端\n小米2021年第一季度财报显示，2021第一季度，小米集团总收入769亿元，增长54.7%，营收和利润再创历史新高。其中，手机高端效应进一步凸显，成为推动小米业绩提升的重要推动力。\n同时，高端产品业绩爆发及高端产品矩阵的逐渐丰富表明，小米手机已经成功站稳高端市场。未来，小米高端系列产品将持续为小米集团注入更大的增长动能和空间。\n小米集团合伙人、总裁王翔在电话会议上称，“我们的总收入和调整后净利都是创造了小米历史上单季的历史新高。第一季度，智能手机出货量排名稳居全球第三名，市场占有率达到了14.1%，出货同比增长62%，在主要厂商中依然维持了较快的增速。这个季度，手机业务的成绩最主要得益于我们在高端市场不断巩固的地位。”\n长久以来，“性价比”一直是小米的金字招牌，小米也因此吸引了大量年轻用户。可资本市场更看重利润，并因为小米手机性价比高，利润低，最初股价也迟迟没有表现，直到2020年才快速改观。\n透过今年一季报可以看到，小米高端手机显著增长，并在市场份额上占据优势。财报显示，一季度小米手机在中国内地定价在人民币3000元或以上及境外定价在300欧元及以上的智能手机全球出货量超过了400万台。此外，根据第三方数据，小米手机中国内地定价在人民币4000元至6000元区间的智能手机市场份额，由去年同期的5.5%提升至本季度的16.1%。\n据了解，3月份，小米发布了3款高端手机，小米11Pro，小米11ULtra和MIXFOLD。从1月份到4月份，包括Mi 11、Mi 11Pro和Ultra在内的几款手机全球累计的订单数突破了300万台。同时，小米11系列在中国内地市场4000~6000元的安卓手机系列里面销量排名第一名。\n中低端手机争夺份额，高端手机赚取利润。小米一季度净利润破纪录，小米高端手机的出色表现功不可没，这也意味着小米在高端手机领域已站稳脚跟。\n值得一提的是，除了线上销售渠道保持优势外，小米线下渠道短板正在被快速弥补。截至4月底，小米之家线下门店数突破5500家。\n创新驱动成长\n王翔在电话会议上称，小米之所以能够在高端市场取得还不错的成绩，最主要得益于技术创新。“举几个例子，我一直在讲我们在几个季度里面持续的研发投入，首先在相机领域里面，Ultra在DXOMARK评分里面143分，整个全球专业手机相机的排行榜排第一名。同时，我们还首发了GN2的影像传感器，这也是目前业内最大比的图像传感器。在充电方面，小米11Ultra首发了硅氧负极电池，手机触电更加快，机身更轻薄，也支持67瓦的无线闪充，在无线充电行业里面也树立一系列的典范。”\n和以往靠“性价比”驱动成长不同，小米产品性价比依然存在，但技术和创新在助力小米业绩成长上的作用愈发凸显。财报显示，一季度小米研发投入达到了30亿元，同比增长61.0%。\n核心技术能力的提升，带来的是小米整体高端产能的全面提升及产品能力的大幅进步。具体体现到产品上，小米11系列高端产品就有十多项全球首发。目前，小米在相机、音频、射频、天线、电磁兼容、基带、结构、光学、触控、热设计、功耗、电池、可靠性、软件稳定性等十几个学科领域均拥有国际领先的试验能力。\n比如，小米在无限充电技术上，已经实现全球领跑。3月底，在小米11系列产品发布会上，小米全球首发了硅氧负极电池。高能量密度、高寿命、高性能的硅氧负极电池，再次提升了新的行业门槛。再比如，小米的第三代屏下前摄方案已经达到了量产商用标准，在行业处于领先优势。\n巨额的研发投入下，小米研发成果正在不断落地。今年3月上市的小米超高端旗舰机型MIX FOLD，采用2K+全面折叠屏、液态镜头等多项黑科技，售价9999元起，将科技创新与性价比做到了完美。\n可见，小米手机的高端化是以技术作为支撑的高端。技术能力的突破，带来小米产能效率的提升以及产品体验、品质的提升，将持续为小米打开新的高端增长空间打下坚实的基础。而小米以技术定义的高端化，也将使高端手机的竞争进入新的阶段。\n与此同时，小米“手机×AIoT”战略进入了快速收获期。正在有越来越多的消费者，因为小米选择了小米智能家居；越来越多的消费者，因为小米智能家居的潜力，选择小米手机。2021年3月，人工智能助理“小爱同学”月活跃用户数达到9300万；米家APP的月活跃用户数同比增长22.8%，达到4920万。3月底，小米官宣造车，手机×AIoT+造车，能碰撞出怎样的火花，给人以无限遐想。\n长期以来，线上一直是小米的主场，并实现了一季度手机线上市场份额翻倍增长。一季度，小米加快了小米之家线下门店扩张步伐，截至4月底突破5500家。\n最初小米主攻线上，有利于节约成本，节省出更多的性价比。如今，小米AIoT大量爆款商品落地，三线以下下沉市场对小米AIoT家居设备的消费需求不断上涨。一家小米之家同时卖手机和家居设备，既可以满足消费者切实需求，同时相较只卖手机也可以有效降低营销成本。这成为小米手机品牌的独特优势。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"01810":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":4306,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":132724324,"gmtCreate":1622117672068,"gmtModify":1704179755218,"author":{"id":"3536928846214760","authorId":"3536928846214760","name":"東海吉龍","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0ef8466588cf515f97a20c636e2be8a0","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3536928846214760","idStr":"3536928846214760"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"666","listText":"666","text":"666","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/132724324","repostId":"1171660212","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1171660212","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1622115884,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1171660212?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2021-05-27 19:44","market":"hk","language":"zh","title":"The United States buys time with money, and the whole world enters the \"new mediocre era\"","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1171660212","media":"投资作业本","summary":"全球化配置的时代已经开始了。","content":"<p>This year, the U.S. stock market is not a bear market, and the appearance of a bear market is definitely a global systemic risk. \"The Fed's monetary policy framework has been very different from before since 2019, and it has completely changed. Now many investors, especially those in mainland China, always think that the U.S. stock market is going to collapse and the United States is going to end. The inflation of U.S. stocks is so high and the economy is so good. The United States is simply overheated. No matter how you think about it, you think that the Federal Reserve should speed up the pace of tightening. But in fact, this kind of thinking uses an\" old map \", and you think that the Federal Reserve used to focus on inflation and pay more attention to inflation than others.\"</p><p>\"In the second half of the year, the U.S. economy will have a resilience. It's not that it will jump down from 18 floors at once, but that it will maintain a range shock, and the kinetic energy of the whole marginal growth will weaken. There is no need to carry out stimulus policies at this time. This is the first point. The dimension of U.S. economic growth will slow down, and the kinetic energy of the ring-on-ring will weaken.\"</p><p>\"In the second half of the year, the unemployment rate (in the United States) will ease….. This round of unemployment rate in the United States will decline relatively smoothly, rather than rapidly and steeply….. (Federal Reserve) Their focus is also on employment. Before the United States achieves full employment and the pressure of social conflicts eases, it is difficult for the United States to put away the water at once.\"</p><p>\"The inflation in the second half of the year in the United States will not go down at once. The peak of inflation is in the second quarter, but the inflation may still hover at a high level in the second half of the year, and the Federal Reserve needs to control the real interest rate in the United States.\"</p><p>\"Under the background of the current game between great powers, we think that the United States buys time with money. This is a re-creation of the American dream, which means that both the US dollar, the US dollar exchange rate and the US long-term bond interest rate will eventually obey the so-called new American dream, and use money to buy time, the time for the US economic recovery and the time for the expansion of domestic demand in the United States. In the near future, whether with South Korea or some regions, the United States hopes that the advanced manufacturing industries in these regions can come to the United States, buy the time for manufacturing to return to the United States, and buy the time for American scientific and technological innovation and upgrading.\"</p><p>\"Before the policy shift, it can actually be expected that the Fed will guide the market's expectations. And before the Fed's policy, there may be other policies, including taxation.\"</p><p>\"The Fed's policy is equivalent to the main valve of global liquidity. At least this year and even the first quarter of next year, it is still difficult for us to see the tightening of this main valve.\"</p><p>\"These companies that can push the backbone of the US stock index to rise are not expensive, not expensive in the world, and not expensive compared with A shares. On the contrary, they are relatively weak, and the more thematic ones are more expensive.\"</p><p>\"U.S. stocks are definitely not a bear market. At this time, a bear market in U.S. stocks must be a global systemic risk... As long as U.S. stocks are not a big bear, it is a bull or structural market, which brings opportunities to other markets around the world.\"</p><p>\"Don't think that the US stock index is very cattle, ignoring the specialized and institutionalized characteristics of the US stock market. I have always said that we should try to buy funds and fix investment funds as much as possible, so that professional investors can participate in US stocks. Don't consider the US stock market with the idea of speculating in A shares and retail investors.\"</p><p>\"The world has entered an era of low growth and low interest rate, which is a new era of mediocrity. At this stage, we have to find the best companies in the world... The era of global allocation has begun.\"</p><p>On May 25th, Zhang Yidong, global chief strategist of Industrial Securities, shared the above views in the live broadcast of \"Cloud Conference-Global Capital Market Linkage, What is the Value of US Stock Allocation?\" held by China Business News.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f539f1c96458b7ed999579cf5647d0ff\" tg-width=\"677\" tg-height=\"457\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>The following is the essence of the investment workbook, which is shared with you:</p><p><b>The Fed's monetary policy framework is so different that we can't think old-fashioned</b></p><p>Q: For the first time since the outbreak, Fed officials discussed the possibility of tightening monetary policy. What does this mean for global markets?</p><p>Zhang Yidong: If you try to find the way to the future with the old map, you think that the Fed's contraction and bond purchase this time may be further tightened in the distant future. The method is wrong. On the other hand, if you have done more in-depth research on the US stock market, you will find that the Fed's monetary policy framework has been very different from before since 2019, and it has completely changed.</p><p>Nowadays, many investors, especially those in mainland China, always think that U.S. stocks are going to collapse and the United States is going to end. The inflation of U.S. stocks is so high and the economy is so good. The United States is simply overheated. No matter how you think about it, you think that the Federal Reserve should speed up the pace of tightening. However, in fact, this kind of thinking uses an \"old map\", and you think that the Federal Reserve used to focus on inflation and pay more attention to it than anything else.</p><p><b>The US economy remains resilient in the second half of the year, and no stimulus is needed at this time</b></p><p>In the second half of the year, the U.S. economy will have a resilience. It is not that it will jump down from 18 floors at once, but it will maintain a range shock, and the kinetic energy of the whole marginal growth will weaken. There is no need to carry out stimulus policies at this time. This is the first point. The dimension of U.S. economic growth will slow down, and the kinetic energy of the month-on-month will weaken.</p><p>Second, from the perspective of unemployment rate, the economic data in April is very good. The unemployment rate is 6.1%, a little higher than in March, which is from simple to luxurious easy, from luxurious to simple difficult. In the past year, the United States has experienced three rounds of water release and bail-out. The low-and middle-income people in the United States will take the bail-out money to be Happy first and spend it first. The savings rate in the United States is still as high as 13.6%, and the average in American history is 6-8%, which is its normal savings rate level, so it is not in a hurry to work and find a job. In this case, the unemployment rate is relatively high.</p><p><b>The Fed is still focused on jobs</b></p><p>In the second half of the year, the unemployment rate will ease because he is looking for a job and the savings rate will fall. However, the economy of the United States will not be so bad in the second half of the year. He may just work odd jobs, which will make the unemployment rate in the United States decline relatively smoothly, rather than rapidly and steeply.</p><p>The Federal Reserve pays more attention to the unemployment rate, so that when the inflation data appeared in April, on May 12th, US time, the inflation in the United States greatly exceeded expectations, and the market was in an uproar. At that time, many risky assets plummeted, triggering a small global turmoil that day.</p><p>However, immediately, several big figures with voting rights in the Fed, the vice chairman of the Fed, including another important official, suggested that they saw the data and suggested that the employment factor was more worrying than the inflation caused by the short-term transitional supply factor, so their focus was still on employment. Before the United States achieves full employment and the pressure of social conflicts eases, it is difficult to put away the water in the United States at once.</p><p>U.S. inflation peaked in the second quarter, and inflation high hovered in the second half of the year</p><p>Third, the inflation in the second half of the year in the United States will not go down at once. The peak of inflation is in the second quarter, but the inflation may still hover at a high level in the second half of the year, and the Federal Reserve needs to control the real interest rate in the United States.</p><p><b>The United States buys time with money</b></p><p>Real interest rates are very important to the recovery of the US economy, and in turn play a guiding role in nominal interest rates. As you can see, obviously, everyone was worried in mid-March, but in mid-March, we clearly stated that the yield of U.S. long-term bonds would not pose a systemic risk. Under the current background of the big-power game, we think that the United States is buying time with money, which is a re-creation of the American dream, which means that both the U.S. dollar, the exchange rate of the U.S. dollar and the interest rate of the U.S. long-term bonds will eventually obey the so-called new American dream, and use money to buy time, the recovery of the U.S. economy and the expansion of domestic demand in the United States. Recently, whether with South Korea or some regions, the United States hopes that the advanced manufacturing industries in these regions can come to the United States, buy time for manufacturing to return to the United States, and buy time for American scientific and technological innovation and upgrading.</p><p>Generally speaking, in the current state, whether it is employment, inflation or the United States to enhance its competitiveness and maintain the sustainability of economic growth, it is far from the stage of contraction.</p><p>There are no systemic risks this year, and the tightening of market concerns has instead given the global opportunity to lay out high-quality assets</p><p>To sum up, my view is that everyone should see clearly the trump cards of the American elite and Powell's trump cards. Powell will decide on his second term next year. In this case, his focus is more on the sustainability of economic growth and employment. Therefore, we say that it is called overwhelming water, and there is no systemic risk this year.</p><p>When the market is worried about the tightening of U.S. policies, which in turn causes global worries, the shock caused by this is a short-term disturbance, but it gives us the opportunity to lay out better assets with better cost performance on a global scale. This is my thinking.</p><p>If the Fed's monetary policy shifts to contraction, what will be the impact?</p><p>First, contraction will definitely bring about the adjustment of highly valued assets, even in a more drastic way.</p><p>Second, if it contracts, it will also bring differentiation, especially for emerging markets. At that time, we should pay attention to the rebound of the US dollar to form a trend of suppression on commodities, and then those emerging markets with middle and upstream raw materials and minerals as the main pillars will form a huge pressure, which will even lead to debt risks and debt crises in emerging markets.</p><p>As far as US stocks are concerned, the high valuation in it, especially some theme-based junk stocks, will also have an obvious adjustment, and history will repeat itself. What are we going to focus on now? When will it actually turn.</p><p>It's hard to see Fed policy tightening this year and even in the first quarter of next year</p><p>Before the policy shift, it is actually expected that the Fed will guide the market's expectations. And before the Fed's policy, there may be other policies, including taxes.</p><p>In the second half of today, there will also be tax increases that will be approved by the national tax, tax changes, bond issuance and fiscal stimulus packages. Generally speaking, we think that this year and even at the beginning of next year, we basically think that you can still see the Fed's trump card clearly.</p><p>Frankly speaking, the current global monetary system is still the international monetary system dominated by the US dollar, so the Fed's policy is equivalent to the main valve of global liquidity. At least this year and even the first quarter of next year, it is still difficult for us to see the tightening of this main valve.</p><p>It is not even excluded that, on the other hand, if the U.S. economy may be weaker than everyone thought in the second half of the year, it is also possible that the general valve of the Federal Reserve will be slightly enlarged, which will bring the opposite effect and bring better cost-effective assets all over the world, including individual high-quality companies in U.S. stocks, European stocks, Chinese A shares, Chinese Hong Kong stocks, including emerging markets.</p><p>It is OK to have a vague concept of the judgment of the Federal Reserve. It is difficult to make a judgment on the general trend, which is accurate to the month and week. We are also taking one step at a time. At least we can judge that the general trend is that we can't see the contraction of the Federal Reserve this year.</p><p><b>The slow bull and long bull of U.S. stocks are driven by the best group of companies</b></p><p>Q: Can U.S. stocks continue to improve? How long does it take to get better?</p><p>Zhang Yidong: Look at this matter in three aspects: First, look at this matter from a structural perspective. The structure of the US stock market itself has three indexes. We often talk about Dow Jones, Nasdaq and S&P. Among these three indexes, the best companies in the United States represented by Apple and Microsoft take the indexes. Similarly, we screen out the best companies in China to make an index. In fact, we are also super long bulls.</p><p>You don't have an idea that all of America is fine. A large number of companies in the U.S. market have launched, cleared, and delisted directly. There are quite a number of companies with no trading volume, like dead, and liquidity discounts. Therefore, the mature market is really a winner-take-all, and the best company has reliable performance. Everyone gives him a valuation that matches the profit growth, so we think its persistence is relatively long.</p><p>The US stock market itself is an index compilation, and its mechanism to effectively screen out the best companies is actually worth learning. Moreover, its trading mechanism, whether it is T +0 or securities lending mechanism, ensures its slow bull and long bull, so that the best companies will not rise several times in one year or a year and a half. After the rise, they will be Game over, and they will not be able to get up for several years.</p><p>From a structural point of view, U.S. stocks are driven by the best companies, and the best companies benefit from its good market mechanism, trading mechanism and a series of market-oriented mechanisms, which makes the best companies have a small bubble.</p><p><b>Backbone companies in U.S. stocks are not expensive</b></p><p>We often say that U.S. stock companies are expensive, and they are expensive from two angles:</p><p>First, these companies that take out the backbone of US stocks alone and can push the US stock index to rise are not expensive, not expensive in the world, and not expensive compared with A shares. On the contrary, the relatively weak ones, the more subject matter ones are more expensive.</p><p>Second, because its interest rate is low, it has risen for so long, and the ten-year Treasury Bond yield of U.S. stocks is only 1.6 and 1.7. This is the first point. From the perspective of the structure of the US stock market, before the United States substantially tightens the faucet (substantial contraction), the path taken by the best companies in the US stock market leading the index is still invisible.</p><p><b>U.S. stocks are not a bear market this year, and the emergence of a bear market is definitely a global systemic risk</b></p><p>Second, the differences between countries. We think that this year's US stock market is not a bear market. At the end of last year, many people said that they were not optimistic about US stocks this year. I said that US stocks are definitely not a bear market. At this time, a bear market in US stocks must be a global systemic risk. If there is a bear market in U.S. stocks this year, it must be that the general valve of the Federal Reserve has tightened. It is a global systemic risk, and neither A-shares, emerging markets nor European stock markets can withstand it.</p><p>Second, from a global perspective, if the United States leads the global monetary system, it is not a systematic tightening, and it is not necessarily the best US stock market. Since the beginning of the year, US stock market has underperformed European stock market, and even some of its indexes have performed weaker than the relatively excellent stock markets in emerging markets. As long as the US stock market is not a big bear, it is a bull or structural market, which brings opportunities to other markets around the world. This is a comparison between national markets and regional stock markets.</p><p>Third, style. Obviously, this year's style of U.S. stocks is that small and medium-sized stocks perform better than large stocks, and the cycle and value performance are better than the growth style, which has been from the beginning of the year until now. However, it is possible that there will be changes, and the style of growth will not be ruled out in the second half of the year.</p><p>From a long-term perspective, the United States is still an economy driven by technology and domestic demand. From a style perspective, its backbone is that these giants with scientific and technological innovation capabilities drag US stocks. This year's Dow Jones, Russell 3000 and Russell 2000 have performed much better than Nasdaq since the beginning of the year.</p><p>But it is precisely as we see that U.S. stocks are not rising and falling at the same time. It is a style rise, for example, the value rises and the growth is adjusting. Whether it is a Chinese stock or a local pure US stock, in fact, many of the partial growth since the beginning of this year have been adjusted by more than 30%-50%. Don't think that the US stock index is very cattle, ignoring the specialized and institutionalized characteristics of the US stock market. I have always said that I should try to buy funds and fix investment funds as much as possible, so that professional investors can participate in US stocks. Don't consider the US stock market with the idea of speculating in A shares and retail investors.</p><p><b>Pay attention to three points when investing in QDII: Know yourself, fight short with long, and fight fast with slow</b></p><p>Q: What should I pay attention to when investing in QDII?</p><p>Zhang Yidong: QDII itself is a tool, a product, a product that helps to enrich asset allocation. There are several concerns:</p><p>First, cognitive self. Before cognizing the product, take a look at what you look like. Because not all people can make money on certain products, for example, the products of some famous fund managers may have doubled dozens of times in more than a decade, but it is useless. The holders take them for a while and then sell them.</p><p>Some people say that buying QDII is the same as buying various products of A shares. When I make a band, it often falls in my hands. It is very important to know yourself. Your risk tolerance, whether you choose a time to make a band or just make a long-term allocation, is different.</p><p>Second, focus on playing short with long. After buying, try to know that the QDII you bought is in a relatively unfamiliar market outside your own circle of competence. You should have a relatively familiar process for fund managers, know horsepower from a distance, be really professional and have a real awareness of the market. It is recognized that making money in U.S. stocks does not depend on timing, but on good companies and high-quality companies. In fact, it is still a measure of value to make layout when its cost performance is right.</p><p>Third, play slow and fast. Because everyone is interested in overseas markets, it is often because they think that A shares have no chance and like to invest their money, which is a little better than the yield of A shares. But the style of A shares is very fast once it goes crazy. Many people cut their meat once A shares rise and directly toss their money out of QDII.</p><p>These three points, self-recognition, long against short, slow against fast is my advice to everyone. Even if the US stock market index is doing well, if we can't have a clear understanding of ourselves, I suggest that you would rather do what you are good at, rather than follow the crowd.</p><p>In 2007 and 2008, when QDII was very hot, taking advantage of the heat to subscribe for QDII, many people lost a lot of money and cut their meat out.</p><p>Therefore, to subscribe for QDII, you need to look at the concept of investors' asset allocation and the assessment period. After you know yourself well, it is always a good choice. Just like financial management, you take out money that you don't need urgently in the short term, and constantly make regular fixed investments. Your purpose is very clear, that is, to buy some assets that A shares don't have, or even through Hong Kong Stock Connect, the assets that even Hong Kong shares don't have, and buy the best global core assets, not only the core assets of A shares and Hong Kong shares in China. This is my share.</p><p><b>The era of global allocation has begun, and it is necessary to find the best companies in the world</b></p><p>Q: If you want to invest in QDII, is QDII the target that we must choose in this basket? Is it an important starting point for our basket to allocate assets?</p><p>Zhang Yidong: Definitely, because the world has entered an era of low growth and low interest rate, which is a new era of mediocrity. At this stage, we have to find the best companies in the world. I put forward the concept of China's core assets in 2016. In fact, this concept can be expanded to the whole world. Whether it is Europe, Japan or the United States, we should find the best companies all over the world and continue to provide assets with core competitiveness and good cost performance.</p><p>When the social wealth of Chinese people has accumulated to a certain stage, now our per capita GDP has reached 10,000 US dollars. According to the experience of Europe and the United States, it is just the beginning of the global allocation of wealth in the United States. According to such an experience, we should start to consider regular fixed investment in QDII, and gradually become familiar with this excellent manager. Don't put all your energy on it at once. If you put it all on it, it is likely that you will lose your heart and hurt your heart because of a fluctuation. It is best to take your time, fight short with long, and fight fast with slow, but the era of global allocation has begun.</p>","source":"lsy1597111094582","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>The United States buys time with money, and the whole world enters the \"new mediocre era\"</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nThe United States buys time with money, and the whole world enters the \"new mediocre era\"\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">投资作业本</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-05-27 19:44</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>This year, the U.S. stock market is not a bear market, and the appearance of a bear market is definitely a global systemic risk. \"The Fed's monetary policy framework has been very different from before since 2019, and it has completely changed. Now many investors, especially those in mainland China, always think that the U.S. stock market is going to collapse and the United States is going to end. The inflation of U.S. stocks is so high and the economy is so good. The United States is simply overheated. No matter how you think about it, you think that the Federal Reserve should speed up the pace of tightening. But in fact, this kind of thinking uses an\" old map \", and you think that the Federal Reserve used to focus on inflation and pay more attention to inflation than others.\"</p><p>\"In the second half of the year, the U.S. economy will have a resilience. It's not that it will jump down from 18 floors at once, but that it will maintain a range shock, and the kinetic energy of the whole marginal growth will weaken. There is no need to carry out stimulus policies at this time. This is the first point. The dimension of U.S. economic growth will slow down, and the kinetic energy of the ring-on-ring will weaken.\"</p><p>\"In the second half of the year, the unemployment rate (in the United States) will ease….. This round of unemployment rate in the United States will decline relatively smoothly, rather than rapidly and steeply….. (Federal Reserve) Their focus is also on employment. Before the United States achieves full employment and the pressure of social conflicts eases, it is difficult for the United States to put away the water at once.\"</p><p>\"The inflation in the second half of the year in the United States will not go down at once. The peak of inflation is in the second quarter, but the inflation may still hover at a high level in the second half of the year, and the Federal Reserve needs to control the real interest rate in the United States.\"</p><p>\"Under the background of the current game between great powers, we think that the United States buys time with money. This is a re-creation of the American dream, which means that both the US dollar, the US dollar exchange rate and the US long-term bond interest rate will eventually obey the so-called new American dream, and use money to buy time, the time for the US economic recovery and the time for the expansion of domestic demand in the United States. In the near future, whether with South Korea or some regions, the United States hopes that the advanced manufacturing industries in these regions can come to the United States, buy the time for manufacturing to return to the United States, and buy the time for American scientific and technological innovation and upgrading.\"</p><p>\"Before the policy shift, it can actually be expected that the Fed will guide the market's expectations. And before the Fed's policy, there may be other policies, including taxation.\"</p><p>\"The Fed's policy is equivalent to the main valve of global liquidity. At least this year and even the first quarter of next year, it is still difficult for us to see the tightening of this main valve.\"</p><p>\"These companies that can push the backbone of the US stock index to rise are not expensive, not expensive in the world, and not expensive compared with A shares. On the contrary, they are relatively weak, and the more thematic ones are more expensive.\"</p><p>\"U.S. stocks are definitely not a bear market. At this time, a bear market in U.S. stocks must be a global systemic risk... As long as U.S. stocks are not a big bear, it is a bull or structural market, which brings opportunities to other markets around the world.\"</p><p>\"Don't think that the US stock index is very cattle, ignoring the specialized and institutionalized characteristics of the US stock market. I have always said that we should try to buy funds and fix investment funds as much as possible, so that professional investors can participate in US stocks. Don't consider the US stock market with the idea of speculating in A shares and retail investors.\"</p><p>\"The world has entered an era of low growth and low interest rate, which is a new era of mediocrity. At this stage, we have to find the best companies in the world... The era of global allocation has begun.\"</p><p>On May 25th, Zhang Yidong, global chief strategist of Industrial Securities, shared the above views in the live broadcast of \"Cloud Conference-Global Capital Market Linkage, What is the Value of US Stock Allocation?\" held by China Business News.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f539f1c96458b7ed999579cf5647d0ff\" tg-width=\"677\" tg-height=\"457\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>The following is the essence of the investment workbook, which is shared with you:</p><p><b>The Fed's monetary policy framework is so different that we can't think old-fashioned</b></p><p>Q: For the first time since the outbreak, Fed officials discussed the possibility of tightening monetary policy. What does this mean for global markets?</p><p>Zhang Yidong: If you try to find the way to the future with the old map, you think that the Fed's contraction and bond purchase this time may be further tightened in the distant future. The method is wrong. On the other hand, if you have done more in-depth research on the US stock market, you will find that the Fed's monetary policy framework has been very different from before since 2019, and it has completely changed.</p><p>Nowadays, many investors, especially those in mainland China, always think that U.S. stocks are going to collapse and the United States is going to end. The inflation of U.S. stocks is so high and the economy is so good. The United States is simply overheated. No matter how you think about it, you think that the Federal Reserve should speed up the pace of tightening. However, in fact, this kind of thinking uses an \"old map\", and you think that the Federal Reserve used to focus on inflation and pay more attention to it than anything else.</p><p><b>The US economy remains resilient in the second half of the year, and no stimulus is needed at this time</b></p><p>In the second half of the year, the U.S. economy will have a resilience. It is not that it will jump down from 18 floors at once, but it will maintain a range shock, and the kinetic energy of the whole marginal growth will weaken. There is no need to carry out stimulus policies at this time. This is the first point. The dimension of U.S. economic growth will slow down, and the kinetic energy of the month-on-month will weaken.</p><p>Second, from the perspective of unemployment rate, the economic data in April is very good. The unemployment rate is 6.1%, a little higher than in March, which is from simple to luxurious easy, from luxurious to simple difficult. In the past year, the United States has experienced three rounds of water release and bail-out. The low-and middle-income people in the United States will take the bail-out money to be Happy first and spend it first. The savings rate in the United States is still as high as 13.6%, and the average in American history is 6-8%, which is its normal savings rate level, so it is not in a hurry to work and find a job. In this case, the unemployment rate is relatively high.</p><p><b>The Fed is still focused on jobs</b></p><p>In the second half of the year, the unemployment rate will ease because he is looking for a job and the savings rate will fall. However, the economy of the United States will not be so bad in the second half of the year. He may just work odd jobs, which will make the unemployment rate in the United States decline relatively smoothly, rather than rapidly and steeply.</p><p>The Federal Reserve pays more attention to the unemployment rate, so that when the inflation data appeared in April, on May 12th, US time, the inflation in the United States greatly exceeded expectations, and the market was in an uproar. At that time, many risky assets plummeted, triggering a small global turmoil that day.</p><p>However, immediately, several big figures with voting rights in the Fed, the vice chairman of the Fed, including another important official, suggested that they saw the data and suggested that the employment factor was more worrying than the inflation caused by the short-term transitional supply factor, so their focus was still on employment. Before the United States achieves full employment and the pressure of social conflicts eases, it is difficult to put away the water in the United States at once.</p><p>U.S. inflation peaked in the second quarter, and inflation high hovered in the second half of the year</p><p>Third, the inflation in the second half of the year in the United States will not go down at once. The peak of inflation is in the second quarter, but the inflation may still hover at a high level in the second half of the year, and the Federal Reserve needs to control the real interest rate in the United States.</p><p><b>The United States buys time with money</b></p><p>Real interest rates are very important to the recovery of the US economy, and in turn play a guiding role in nominal interest rates. As you can see, obviously, everyone was worried in mid-March, but in mid-March, we clearly stated that the yield of U.S. long-term bonds would not pose a systemic risk. Under the current background of the big-power game, we think that the United States is buying time with money, which is a re-creation of the American dream, which means that both the U.S. dollar, the exchange rate of the U.S. dollar and the interest rate of the U.S. long-term bonds will eventually obey the so-called new American dream, and use money to buy time, the recovery of the U.S. economy and the expansion of domestic demand in the United States. Recently, whether with South Korea or some regions, the United States hopes that the advanced manufacturing industries in these regions can come to the United States, buy time for manufacturing to return to the United States, and buy time for American scientific and technological innovation and upgrading.</p><p>Generally speaking, in the current state, whether it is employment, inflation or the United States to enhance its competitiveness and maintain the sustainability of economic growth, it is far from the stage of contraction.</p><p>There are no systemic risks this year, and the tightening of market concerns has instead given the global opportunity to lay out high-quality assets</p><p>To sum up, my view is that everyone should see clearly the trump cards of the American elite and Powell's trump cards. Powell will decide on his second term next year. In this case, his focus is more on the sustainability of economic growth and employment. Therefore, we say that it is called overwhelming water, and there is no systemic risk this year.</p><p>When the market is worried about the tightening of U.S. policies, which in turn causes global worries, the shock caused by this is a short-term disturbance, but it gives us the opportunity to lay out better assets with better cost performance on a global scale. This is my thinking.</p><p>If the Fed's monetary policy shifts to contraction, what will be the impact?</p><p>First, contraction will definitely bring about the adjustment of highly valued assets, even in a more drastic way.</p><p>Second, if it contracts, it will also bring differentiation, especially for emerging markets. At that time, we should pay attention to the rebound of the US dollar to form a trend of suppression on commodities, and then those emerging markets with middle and upstream raw materials and minerals as the main pillars will form a huge pressure, which will even lead to debt risks and debt crises in emerging markets.</p><p>As far as US stocks are concerned, the high valuation in it, especially some theme-based junk stocks, will also have an obvious adjustment, and history will repeat itself. What are we going to focus on now? When will it actually turn.</p><p>It's hard to see Fed policy tightening this year and even in the first quarter of next year</p><p>Before the policy shift, it is actually expected that the Fed will guide the market's expectations. And before the Fed's policy, there may be other policies, including taxes.</p><p>In the second half of today, there will also be tax increases that will be approved by the national tax, tax changes, bond issuance and fiscal stimulus packages. Generally speaking, we think that this year and even at the beginning of next year, we basically think that you can still see the Fed's trump card clearly.</p><p>Frankly speaking, the current global monetary system is still the international monetary system dominated by the US dollar, so the Fed's policy is equivalent to the main valve of global liquidity. At least this year and even the first quarter of next year, it is still difficult for us to see the tightening of this main valve.</p><p>It is not even excluded that, on the other hand, if the U.S. economy may be weaker than everyone thought in the second half of the year, it is also possible that the general valve of the Federal Reserve will be slightly enlarged, which will bring the opposite effect and bring better cost-effective assets all over the world, including individual high-quality companies in U.S. stocks, European stocks, Chinese A shares, Chinese Hong Kong stocks, including emerging markets.</p><p>It is OK to have a vague concept of the judgment of the Federal Reserve. It is difficult to make a judgment on the general trend, which is accurate to the month and week. We are also taking one step at a time. At least we can judge that the general trend is that we can't see the contraction of the Federal Reserve this year.</p><p><b>The slow bull and long bull of U.S. stocks are driven by the best group of companies</b></p><p>Q: Can U.S. stocks continue to improve? How long does it take to get better?</p><p>Zhang Yidong: Look at this matter in three aspects: First, look at this matter from a structural perspective. The structure of the US stock market itself has three indexes. We often talk about Dow Jones, Nasdaq and S&P. Among these three indexes, the best companies in the United States represented by Apple and Microsoft take the indexes. Similarly, we screen out the best companies in China to make an index. In fact, we are also super long bulls.</p><p>You don't have an idea that all of America is fine. A large number of companies in the U.S. market have launched, cleared, and delisted directly. There are quite a number of companies with no trading volume, like dead, and liquidity discounts. Therefore, the mature market is really a winner-take-all, and the best company has reliable performance. Everyone gives him a valuation that matches the profit growth, so we think its persistence is relatively long.</p><p>The US stock market itself is an index compilation, and its mechanism to effectively screen out the best companies is actually worth learning. Moreover, its trading mechanism, whether it is T +0 or securities lending mechanism, ensures its slow bull and long bull, so that the best companies will not rise several times in one year or a year and a half. After the rise, they will be Game over, and they will not be able to get up for several years.</p><p>From a structural point of view, U.S. stocks are driven by the best companies, and the best companies benefit from its good market mechanism, trading mechanism and a series of market-oriented mechanisms, which makes the best companies have a small bubble.</p><p><b>Backbone companies in U.S. stocks are not expensive</b></p><p>We often say that U.S. stock companies are expensive, and they are expensive from two angles:</p><p>First, these companies that take out the backbone of US stocks alone and can push the US stock index to rise are not expensive, not expensive in the world, and not expensive compared with A shares. On the contrary, the relatively weak ones, the more subject matter ones are more expensive.</p><p>Second, because its interest rate is low, it has risen for so long, and the ten-year Treasury Bond yield of U.S. stocks is only 1.6 and 1.7. This is the first point. From the perspective of the structure of the US stock market, before the United States substantially tightens the faucet (substantial contraction), the path taken by the best companies in the US stock market leading the index is still invisible.</p><p><b>U.S. stocks are not a bear market this year, and the emergence of a bear market is definitely a global systemic risk</b></p><p>Second, the differences between countries. We think that this year's US stock market is not a bear market. At the end of last year, many people said that they were not optimistic about US stocks this year. I said that US stocks are definitely not a bear market. At this time, a bear market in US stocks must be a global systemic risk. If there is a bear market in U.S. stocks this year, it must be that the general valve of the Federal Reserve has tightened. It is a global systemic risk, and neither A-shares, emerging markets nor European stock markets can withstand it.</p><p>Second, from a global perspective, if the United States leads the global monetary system, it is not a systematic tightening, and it is not necessarily the best US stock market. Since the beginning of the year, US stock market has underperformed European stock market, and even some of its indexes have performed weaker than the relatively excellent stock markets in emerging markets. As long as the US stock market is not a big bear, it is a bull or structural market, which brings opportunities to other markets around the world. This is a comparison between national markets and regional stock markets.</p><p>Third, style. Obviously, this year's style of U.S. stocks is that small and medium-sized stocks perform better than large stocks, and the cycle and value performance are better than the growth style, which has been from the beginning of the year until now. However, it is possible that there will be changes, and the style of growth will not be ruled out in the second half of the year.</p><p>From a long-term perspective, the United States is still an economy driven by technology and domestic demand. From a style perspective, its backbone is that these giants with scientific and technological innovation capabilities drag US stocks. This year's Dow Jones, Russell 3000 and Russell 2000 have performed much better than Nasdaq since the beginning of the year.</p><p>But it is precisely as we see that U.S. stocks are not rising and falling at the same time. It is a style rise, for example, the value rises and the growth is adjusting. Whether it is a Chinese stock or a local pure US stock, in fact, many of the partial growth since the beginning of this year have been adjusted by more than 30%-50%. Don't think that the US stock index is very cattle, ignoring the specialized and institutionalized characteristics of the US stock market. I have always said that I should try to buy funds and fix investment funds as much as possible, so that professional investors can participate in US stocks. Don't consider the US stock market with the idea of speculating in A shares and retail investors.</p><p><b>Pay attention to three points when investing in QDII: Know yourself, fight short with long, and fight fast with slow</b></p><p>Q: What should I pay attention to when investing in QDII?</p><p>Zhang Yidong: QDII itself is a tool, a product, a product that helps to enrich asset allocation. There are several concerns:</p><p>First, cognitive self. Before cognizing the product, take a look at what you look like. Because not all people can make money on certain products, for example, the products of some famous fund managers may have doubled dozens of times in more than a decade, but it is useless. The holders take them for a while and then sell them.</p><p>Some people say that buying QDII is the same as buying various products of A shares. When I make a band, it often falls in my hands. It is very important to know yourself. Your risk tolerance, whether you choose a time to make a band or just make a long-term allocation, is different.</p><p>Second, focus on playing short with long. After buying, try to know that the QDII you bought is in a relatively unfamiliar market outside your own circle of competence. You should have a relatively familiar process for fund managers, know horsepower from a distance, be really professional and have a real awareness of the market. It is recognized that making money in U.S. stocks does not depend on timing, but on good companies and high-quality companies. In fact, it is still a measure of value to make layout when its cost performance is right.</p><p>Third, play slow and fast. Because everyone is interested in overseas markets, it is often because they think that A shares have no chance and like to invest their money, which is a little better than the yield of A shares. But the style of A shares is very fast once it goes crazy. Many people cut their meat once A shares rise and directly toss their money out of QDII.</p><p>These three points, self-recognition, long against short, slow against fast is my advice to everyone. Even if the US stock market index is doing well, if we can't have a clear understanding of ourselves, I suggest that you would rather do what you are good at, rather than follow the crowd.</p><p>In 2007 and 2008, when QDII was very hot, taking advantage of the heat to subscribe for QDII, many people lost a lot of money and cut their meat out.</p><p>Therefore, to subscribe for QDII, you need to look at the concept of investors' asset allocation and the assessment period. After you know yourself well, it is always a good choice. Just like financial management, you take out money that you don't need urgently in the short term, and constantly make regular fixed investments. Your purpose is very clear, that is, to buy some assets that A shares don't have, or even through Hong Kong Stock Connect, the assets that even Hong Kong shares don't have, and buy the best global core assets, not only the core assets of A shares and Hong Kong shares in China. This is my share.</p><p><b>The era of global allocation has begun, and it is necessary to find the best companies in the world</b></p><p>Q: If you want to invest in QDII, is QDII the target that we must choose in this basket? Is it an important starting point for our basket to allocate assets?</p><p>Zhang Yidong: Definitely, because the world has entered an era of low growth and low interest rate, which is a new era of mediocrity. At this stage, we have to find the best companies in the world. I put forward the concept of China's core assets in 2016. In fact, this concept can be expanded to the whole world. Whether it is Europe, Japan or the United States, we should find the best companies all over the world and continue to provide assets with core competitiveness and good cost performance.</p><p>When the social wealth of Chinese people has accumulated to a certain stage, now our per capita GDP has reached 10,000 US dollars. According to the experience of Europe and the United States, it is just the beginning of the global allocation of wealth in the United States. According to such an experience, we should start to consider regular fixed investment in QDII, and gradually become familiar with this excellent manager. Don't put all your energy on it at once. If you put it all on it, it is likely that you will lose your heart and hurt your heart because of a fluctuation. It is best to take your time, fight short with long, and fight fast with slow, but the era of global allocation has begun.</p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> source：<a href=\"https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s?__biz=MzI0OTU4MTM3NQ==&mid=2247489839&idx=1&sn=bfa4c7de9db93cf496b1571b54d2223f&chksm=e98e037fdef98a691f1f72fec74fa81d0495e5508953175e31a96ce3ad949fe19ad0150a5e74&mpshare=1&scene=23&srcid=0527nkCwOi69oB7tUYWCJjNe&sharer_sharetime=1622111756938&sharer_shareid=ad9b2b8e01e45d9350b7cd98d4e88279#rd\">投资作业本</a></p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/15e20574f8fb568333181d61bb200086","relate_stocks":{".DJI":"道琼斯"},"source_url":"https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s?__biz=MzI0OTU4MTM3NQ==&mid=2247489839&idx=1&sn=bfa4c7de9db93cf496b1571b54d2223f&chksm=e98e037fdef98a691f1f72fec74fa81d0495e5508953175e31a96ce3ad949fe19ad0150a5e74&mpshare=1&scene=23&srcid=0527nkCwOi69oB7tUYWCJjNe&sharer_sharetime=1622111756938&sharer_shareid=ad9b2b8e01e45d9350b7cd98d4e88279#rd","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1171660212","content_text":"今年美股不是熊市，出现熊市肯定是全球性系统风险。“美联储的货币政策框架已经从2019年以后和以前大不一样，它已经完全的改变。现在很多投资者，特别是中国内地的投资者老是认为美股要崩了，美国要完蛋了，美股通胀这么高，经济又这么好，美国简直就是过热了，怎么想都觉得美联储要加快收紧的步伐，但事实上这种思考用的是一种“旧地图”，觉得美联储以前就盯住通胀，关注通胀胜于其他。”“下半年，美国经济会有一个韧性。不是说一下子从十八层楼向下跳，而是它会维持一个区间震荡，整个边际增长的动能会减弱，这个时候没有必要进行刺激政策，这是第一点，美国经济增长的维度会放缓，环比的动能会减弱。”“到了下半年，（美国）失业率的情况会缓解….. 美国这一轮失业率下行相对比较平滑，而不是快速的陡峭…..(美联储)他们的着重点还在于就业。美国实现充分就业之前，社会矛盾的压力缓解之前，美国覆水很难一下子收起来。”“美国下半年的通胀不会一下子下去，通胀的峰值在二季度，但是下半年通胀可能还在高位徘徊，需要美联储控制住美国的实际利率。”“在当前大国博弈的背景下，我们认为美国是用钱买时间，这是重新编了一个美国梦，意味着无论是美元、美元汇率还是美国长债利率最终都要服从于所谓新的美国梦，用钱来买时间，买美国经济复苏的时间，买美国内需扩张的时间，近期无论跟韩国还是一些区域，美国都希望这些区域的先进制造业能够到美国，买制造业回流美国的时间，买美国科技创新升级的时间。”“在政策转向之前，其实是可以预期的，美联储会引导市场的预期。而且在美联储的政策之前，可能还会有其他的政策，包括税收。”“美联储的政策相当于全球流动性的总阀门，这个总阀门至少今年乃至明年的一季度，我们还是很难看到收紧。”“能够推动美股指数向上涨的主心骨的这些公司并不贵，放在全球都不贵，跟A股相比也不算贵。反而相对弱的，比较偏题材性的比较贵。”“美股肯定不是熊市，这个时候美股出现熊市，一定是全球性的系统风险……只要美股不是一个大熊，它是一个偏牛或者偏结构型的市场，带来全球其他市场就有机会。”“不要以为美股指数很牛，忽略了美股市场的专业化、机构化的特征。我一直讲尽量用买基金、定投基金为主，让专业的投资者参与到美股，不要用炒A股的思路，散户化的思路考虑美股的市场。”“全球都进入到低增长、低利率的时代，是一个新平庸时代。这个阶段就要找全世界最优秀的公司……全球化配置的时代已经开始了。”5月25日，在第一财经举办的《云上会丨全球资本市场联动，美股配置价值几何？》的直播中，兴业证券全球首席策略分析师张忆东分享了上述观点。以下是投资作业本整理的精华内容，分享给大家：美联储货币政策框架已大大不同，不能用老式思维思考Q: 疫情爆发以来，美联储官员首次讨论收紧货币政策的可能性，这对全球市场意味着什么？张忆东：大家如果用老的地图试图找到未来的路，认为美联储这一次进行收缩、购债，遥远的未来有可能进一步收紧，方法是错的，反过来说，如果对于美股市场一直比较多的深入研究就会发现美联储的货币政策框架已经从2019年以后和以前大不一样，它已经完全的改变。现在很多投资者，特别是中国内地的投资者老是认为美股要崩了，美国要完蛋了，美股通胀这么高，经济又这么好，美国简直就是过热了，怎么想都觉得美联储要加快收紧的步伐，但事实上这种思考用的是一种“旧地图”，觉得美联储以前就盯住通胀，关注通胀胜于其他。下半年美国经济仍有韧性，此时无需进行刺激政策下半年，美国经济会有一个韧性。不是说一下子从十八层楼向下跳，而是它会维持一个区间震荡，整个边际增长的动能会减弱，这个时候没有必要进行刺激政策，这是第一点，美国经济增长的维度会放缓，环比的动能会减弱。第二，从失业率的维度来说，4月份经济数据非常好。失业率是6.1%，比3月份提高了一点，这就是由简入奢易，由奢入简难。过去一年的时间里，美国经历了3轮大放水，纾困，美国中低收入阶层会拿着纾困的钱先Happy，先花掉，美国的储蓄率依然高达13.6%，美国历史上的平均值是6—8%，这是它正常的储蓄率水平，所以不急于干活、找工作，这种情况下，失业率比较高。美联储重点还是关注就业到了下半年，失业率的情况会缓解，因为他要找工作，储蓄率下降。但是美国下半年的经济不会那么糟，他可能打打零工就OK了，从而使得美国这一轮失业率下行相对比较平滑，而不是快速的陡峭。美联储对于失业率的关注度更高，以至于当4月份的通胀数据出现之后，美国时间5月12号，美国通胀大超预期，市场一片哗然，当时很多风险资产暴跌，引发了那一天全球性的小小动荡。但是，立刻美联储有投票权的几个大人物，美联储的副主席包括另外一个重要的官员提出，他们看到数据，提出相比较短期过渡性的供给因素引发的通胀，就业的因素更令人担心，所以他们的着重点还在于就业。美国实现充分就业之前，社会矛盾的压力缓解之前，美国覆水很难一下子收起来。美国通胀峰值在二季度，下半年通胀高位徘徊第三，美国下半年的通胀不会一下子下去，通胀的峰值在二季度，但是下半年通胀可能还在高位徘徊，需要美联储控制住美国的实际利率。美国用钱买时间实际利率对美国经济的复苏非常重要，进而对于名义利率也有一个引导作用。你可以看到很明显，3月中旬的时候大家都很担心，但是3月中旬我们旗帜鲜明的提出美国长债收益率不会构成系统性风险，在当前大国博弈的背景下，我们认为美国是用钱买时间，这是重新编了一个美国梦，意味着无论是美元、美元汇率还是美国长债利率最终都要服从于所谓新的美国梦，用钱来买时间，买美国经济复苏的时间，买美国内需扩张的时间，近期无论跟韩国还是一些区域，美国都希望这些区域的先进制造业能够到美国，买制造业回流美国的时间，买美国科技创新升级的时间。总体来说，现在的状态下，无论是就业、通胀还是美国要增强它的竞争力，维持经济增长的持续性，都远不到收缩的阶段。今年没有系统性风险，市场担忧收紧反而给了全球布局优质资产的机会做一个总结，我的看法是大家要看清楚美国精英阶层的底牌，要看清楚鲍威尔的底牌，鲍威尔明年就要决定第二轮任期，在这种情况下，他的关注点更多在经济增长的持续性，就业的层面。所以我们说叫做覆水难收，今年没有系统性风险。当市场担心美国政策收紧，进而引发全球性担忧，这种导致的震荡是一个短期的扰动，反而给了我们在全球范围内布局更优质资产，性价比更好的资产的机会，这是我的思考。假如美联储货币政策转向收缩，会带来哪些影响？第一，收缩一定会带来高估值资产的调整，甚至是以一个比较激烈的方式调整。第二，如果收缩，也会带来分化，特别是对于新兴市场，那个时候要关注美元的反弹对于大宗商品形成一个趋势性的压制，进而那些以中上游原材料和矿产为主要支柱的新兴市场就形成了一个巨大的压力，甚至会导致新兴市场的债务风险、债务危机。对于美股而言，它里边的高估值，特别是有一些题材型的垃圾股也会有一个明显的调整，历史都会重演。我们现在要关注的是什么？它什么时候会真正的转。今年乃至明年一季度很难看到美联储政策收紧在政策转向之前，其实是可以预期的，美联储会引导市场的预期。而且在美联储的政策之前，可能还会有其他的政策，包括税收。今天下半年，也会有加税会不会被国税批准，税收的变化，以及发债，财政刺激方案。总体来说，我们认为今年乃至于明年的年初，我们基本上认为大家还可以看清楚美联储的底牌。坦率说，现在全球的货币体系依然是以美元为主导的国际货币体系，所以美联储的政策相当于全球流动性的总阀门，这个总阀门至少今年乃至明年的一季度，我们还是很难看到总阀门的收紧。甚至不排除反过来，如果下半年美国经济可能比大家想象中的弱，也有可能美联储的总阀门略微的放大一点，这会带来反过来的作用，带来全世界性价比更好的资产，包括美国股个别优质的公司，欧洲的，中国A股、中国港股，包括新兴市场的。对于美联储的判断有一个模糊的概念就OK，对大体趋势做一个判断，具体精确到月、周那很难，我们也是走一步看一步，至少我们能够判断大的趋势是今年看不到美联储收缩的动作。美股的慢牛、长牛是由最优秀的一批公司驱动的Q：美股还能继续向好吗？向好的时间有多长？张忆东：分三个方面来看这个事情：第一，从结构的角度来看这件事情。美股市场本身的结构，它有三大指数，我们动辄讲道琼斯、纳斯达克、标普，这三大指数里面主要就是苹果、微软为代表的美国最优秀的公司带着指数走。同样，我们把中国最优秀的公司筛出来做一个指数，其实我们也是超级长牛。你不要有一个想法，美国所有的都好。美国市场大量的公司推出了，清零了，直接退市了，有相当一批公司没有成交量，像死了一样，流动性折价。所以成熟市场真的是赢家通吃，最优秀的公司它的业绩靠谱，大家给他符合盈利增长相匹配的估值，所以我们认为它的持续性比较长。美股本身是指数编制，以及它能够有效的把最优秀的公司筛选出来的机制其实值得我们学习，而且它的交易机制，无论是T+0还是融券的机制，反而保证了它的慢牛，长牛，使得最优秀的公司不会是一年或者一年半涨了几倍，涨完了就Game over，好几年起不来了。从结构的角度来说，美股是最优秀的一批公司驱动的，而最优秀的公司又受益于它良好的市场机制、交易机制和市场一系列的市场化机制，使得最优秀的一批公司反而泡沫很小。美股主心骨公司并不贵我们动辄讲美股公司贵，贵从两个角度说：第一，单独拿出来美股的主心骨，能够推动美股指数向上涨的主心骨的这些公司并不贵，放在全球都不贵，跟A股相比也不算贵。反而相对弱的，比较偏题材性的比较贵。第二，因为它的利率低，涨了这么久，美股的十年期国债收益率只有1.6、1.7。这是第一点，从美股市场的结构来看在美国实质性地收紧水龙头（实质性收缩）之前，美股最牛的一批公司引领着指数走的路径还是看不到终止的。今年美股不是熊市，出现熊市肯定是全球性系统风险第二，国别之间的差异。我们认为今年美股不是熊市，去年年底，很多人说今年不看好美股，我说美股肯定不是熊市，这个时候美股出现熊市，一定是全球性的系统风险。如果今年美股出现熊市，肯定是美联储总阀门收紧了，那是全球性的系统性风险，无论是A股、新兴市场、欧洲的股市，都顶不住。第二个层面，从全球的角度来说，如果美国引领了全球货币体系不是一个系统性的收紧，不一定是美股最优秀，年初以来，美股跑输了欧洲股市，甚至它的有些指数比新兴市场相对优秀的股市表现得弱一点。只要美股不是一个大熊，它是一个偏牛或者偏结构型的市场，带来全球其他市场就有机会，这是国别市场和区域股市之间的比较。第三，风格。很明显，今年美股的风格是中小型的表现得比大型得好，周期和价值表现的比成长的风格好，这是从年初一直到现在。但是有可能会有所变化，下半年不排除成长的风格有所改善。从长期的角度来说，美国还是一个依靠科技驱动、内需驱动的经济体，从风格的角度来说，它的主心骨还是具有科技创新能力的这些巨头拖着美股走，今年的道琼斯，罗素3000、罗素2000，表现的比纳斯达克从年初到现在好很多。但是恰恰我们看到美股不是同涨同跌，它是一个风格涨，比如说价值涨，成长在调整。无论是中概股还是美股本地的纯美股，其实在今年从年初以来偏成长的很多都调了30%—50%以上，不要以为美股指数很牛，忽略了美股市场的专业化、机构化的特征。我一直讲尽量用买基金、定投基金为主，让专业的投资者参与到美股，不要用炒A股的思路，散户化的思路考虑美股的市场。投资QDII注意三点：认知自我、以长打短、以慢打快Q：投资QDII的时候需要注意什么？张忆东：QDII本身就是一种工具，是一种产品，有助于丰富资产配置的产品。有几个关注点：第一，认知自我。在认知产品之前，先看一看自己是什么样子的。因为并不是所有的人都能够在某些产品上赚钱，比如某些著名基金经理的产品可能十几年翻了几十倍，但没用，持有人拿了一会儿就卖掉了。有些人说买QDII就和买A股的各种产品一样，我做一个波段，往往就砸在手里面了。认知自我很重要，你的风险承受能力，究竟是择时做一个波段还是只是做一个长远的配置，这是不一样的。第二，关注以长打短。买了以后，尽量要知道你买的QDII是在自己能力圈以外，相对陌生的市场，对于基金管理人要有一个相对熟悉的过程，路遥知马力，真正要专业，真正对市场有认知。认知到在美股赚钱不是靠择时，而是靠好的公司，优质的公司，在它性价比合适的时候进行布局，其实还是对价值的衡量。第三，以慢打快。因为大家对海外市场感兴趣，往往是因为觉得A股没戏，喜欢把钱投出去，相比A股那边的收益率好一点。但是A股的风格一旦疯起来特别快。很多人在A股一旦起来的时候就割肉，直接把钱从QDII折腾出来。这三点，认知自我，以长打短，以慢打快是我对大家的建议。就算是美股市场指数走得很好，如果我们不能够对自我有清醒的认识，我建议大家宁可做自己擅长的事，不一定随大流。2007年、2008年，QDII非常火的时候，趁着热度认购QDII，很多人都亏了大钱，割肉出局。所以认购QDII，需要看投资者资产配置的理念和考核的期限，你要认知好自我之后，什么时候都是一个好的选择。就像理财一样，你拿出短期不需要急用的钱，不断的定期定投，你的目的很清晰，就是买一些A股没有的资产，甚至通过港股通，连港股都没有的资产，买最优秀的全球型的核心资产，不止是A股、港股中国的核心资产，这是我的分享。全球化配置时代已开启，要寻找全世界最优秀的公司Q：如果要投资QDII，QDII是不是我们这个篮子里面必须要选择的标的？是不是我们这个篮子配置资产很重要的一个抓手？张忆东：肯定是的，因为全球都进入到低增长、低利率的时代，是一个新平庸时代。这个阶段就要找全世界最优秀的公司，我在2016年提出中国核心资产这个理念，其实这个理念可以扩增到全世界，无论是欧洲、日本、美国，全球范围内寻找最优秀的公司，持续提供有核心竞争力，性价比不错的资产。当中国人的社会财富积累到了一定的阶段，现在我们的人均GDP到了1万美金，按照欧美的经验来看，恰恰是美国财富全球化配置的开端，按照这样一个经验来看，我们应该开始考虑定期定投QDII，慢慢熟悉这种优秀的管理人，不要一下子把全部的精力放上去，如果全部放上去，很可能因为一个波动灰了心，伤了心，最好慢慢来，以长打短，以慢打快，但是全球化配置的时代已经开始了。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{".DJI":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":5201,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":131283763,"gmtCreate":1621863226252,"gmtModify":1704363464048,"author":{"id":"3536928846214760","authorId":"3536928846214760","name":"東海吉龍","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0ef8466588cf515f97a20c636e2be8a0","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3536928846214760","idStr":"3536928846214760"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"666","listText":"666","text":"666","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/131283763","repostId":"1120894920","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":4001,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":133957781,"gmtCreate":1621689414443,"gmtModify":1704361490545,"author":{"id":"3536928846214760","authorId":"3536928846214760","name":"東海吉龍","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0ef8466588cf515f97a20c636e2be8a0","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3536928846214760","idStr":"3536928846214760"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"666","listText":"666","text":"666","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":4,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/133957781","repostId":"1118299916","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":4623,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":191045748,"gmtCreate":1620830207184,"gmtModify":1704349069331,"author":{"id":"3536928846214760","authorId":"3536928846214760","name":"東海吉龍","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0ef8466588cf515f97a20c636e2be8a0","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3536928846214760","idStr":"3536928846214760"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"666","listText":"666","text":"666","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/191045748","repostId":"1123721888","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1123721888","kind":"news","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"为用户提供金融资讯、行情、数据，旨在帮助投资者理解世界，做投资决策。","home_visible":1,"media_name":"老虎资讯综合","id":"102","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba"},"pubTimestamp":1620812439,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1123721888?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2021-05-12 17:40","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"Tiger Brokers was included in the MSCI China All-Stock Index!","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1123721888","media":"老虎资讯综合","summary":"此次被纳入MSCI意味着国际资本市场对老虎证券的认可和信心！","content":"<p>On May 11th, MSCI, an international index compilation company, announced the quarterly adjustment results of the May index, among which,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TIGR\">Tiger Brokers</a>It is included in the MSCI China All Shares Index, which will take effect after the close of market on May 27.</p><p>Wu Tianhua, founder and CEO of Tiger Brokers, said: \"The inclusion of Tiger Brokers in the MSCI China All-Stock Index represents the recognition and confidence of the international market in our long-term investment value and development prospects. The mission of Tiger Brokers is that technology makes investment better. Through continuous technology iteration, we are committed to providing investors with a more efficient, convenient and smooth one-stop global investment experience. As Tiger enters Singapore, the United States and other countries and regions, we look forward to serving more global users. \"<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6cac618ec6413c15fd5aad09ee702621\" tg-width=\"405\" tg-height=\"720\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">MSCI (MSCI) is the most important index company in the world at present, compiling hundreds of indices of various markets around the world, and is tracked by a large number of international institutions and investors as an investment benchmark. Since the release of the first index in 1969, MSCI has mainly provided products and services such as index, risk portfolio and performance analysis tools, and corporate governance tools according to different countries and regions, market size, industries and investment methods. About $10 trillion of global assets are benchmarked against the MSCI index, and 97 of the world's top 100 largest asset managers are MSCI clients. Pensions for 95% of invested interests in the United States are benchmarked against MSCI.</p><p>The MSCI China All Shares Index, compiled by MSCI, is the most important component of the MSCI Emerging Markets Index. According to the adjustment method of MSCI index, companies that can be included in its index system generally have to meet a series of requirements such as total market value, free-float market value, liquidity and trading time.</p><p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e8f2f148520e460cb20ee263c4b5fd2f\" tg-width=\"830\" tg-height=\"536\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><span>MSCI Official Website</span></p><p>MSCI China All Shares Index Historical Performance:</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6c5df675372dbd49e16da8a583e0f650\" tg-width=\"830\" tg-height=\"426\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">According to the quarterly adjustment results released by MSCI, the MSCI China All-Stock Index added 60 new stocks and excluded 26 stocks this time. So, what does being on the list mean for Tiger?</p><p>It means the recognition and confidence of the international capital market in Tiger Brokers, which will help to further expand the influence of the company in the international capital market and enhance the internationalization level of the company's shareholders.</p><p>According to MSCI's estimate, trillions of dollars of funds around the world track emerging market indexes, including both active funds and passive funds. Passive funds take MSCI China All-Stock Index as their investment target. When stocks are included in the index, passive investors will allocate these new constituent stocks in proportion.</p><p>Details:</p><p><a href=\"https://www.msci.com/eqb/gimi/stdindex/MSCI_May21_ChinaAllShares_PublicList.pdf\" target=\"_blank\">Adjustment of MSCI China Index Constituent Stocks</a></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Tiger Brokers was included in the MSCI China All-Stock Index!</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nTiger Brokers was included in the MSCI China All-Stock Index!\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/102\">\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">老虎资讯综合 </p>\n<p class=\"h-time smaller\">2021-05-12 17:40</p>\n</div>\n</a>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>On May 11th, MSCI, an international index compilation company, announced the quarterly adjustment results of the May index, among which,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TIGR\">Tiger Brokers</a>It is included in the MSCI China All Shares Index, which will take effect after the close of market on May 27.</p><p>Wu Tianhua, founder and CEO of Tiger Brokers, said: \"The inclusion of Tiger Brokers in the MSCI China All-Stock Index represents the recognition and confidence of the international market in our long-term investment value and development prospects. The mission of Tiger Brokers is that technology makes investment better. Through continuous technology iteration, we are committed to providing investors with a more efficient, convenient and smooth one-stop global investment experience. As Tiger enters Singapore, the United States and other countries and regions, we look forward to serving more global users. \"<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6cac618ec6413c15fd5aad09ee702621\" tg-width=\"405\" tg-height=\"720\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">MSCI (MSCI) is the most important index company in the world at present, compiling hundreds of indices of various markets around the world, and is tracked by a large number of international institutions and investors as an investment benchmark. Since the release of the first index in 1969, MSCI has mainly provided products and services such as index, risk portfolio and performance analysis tools, and corporate governance tools according to different countries and regions, market size, industries and investment methods. About $10 trillion of global assets are benchmarked against the MSCI index, and 97 of the world's top 100 largest asset managers are MSCI clients. Pensions for 95% of invested interests in the United States are benchmarked against MSCI.</p><p>The MSCI China All Shares Index, compiled by MSCI, is the most important component of the MSCI Emerging Markets Index. According to the adjustment method of MSCI index, companies that can be included in its index system generally have to meet a series of requirements such as total market value, free-float market value, liquidity and trading time.</p><p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e8f2f148520e460cb20ee263c4b5fd2f\" tg-width=\"830\" tg-height=\"536\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><span>MSCI Official Website</span></p><p>MSCI China All Shares Index Historical Performance:</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6c5df675372dbd49e16da8a583e0f650\" tg-width=\"830\" tg-height=\"426\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">According to the quarterly adjustment results released by MSCI, the MSCI China All-Stock Index added 60 new stocks and excluded 26 stocks this time. So, what does being on the list mean for Tiger?</p><p>It means the recognition and confidence of the international capital market in Tiger Brokers, which will help to further expand the influence of the company in the international capital market and enhance the internationalization level of the company's shareholders.</p><p>According to MSCI's estimate, trillions of dollars of funds around the world track emerging market indexes, including both active funds and passive funds. Passive funds take MSCI China All-Stock Index as their investment target. When stocks are included in the index, passive investors will allocate these new constituent stocks in proportion.</p><p>Details:</p><p><a href=\"https://www.msci.com/eqb/gimi/stdindex/MSCI_May21_ChinaAllShares_PublicList.pdf\" target=\"_blank\">Adjustment of MSCI China Index Constituent Stocks</a></p>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9e4b807dafecc161ebbd0d3c42055f20","relate_stocks":{"TIGR":"老虎证券"},"is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1123721888","content_text":"5月11日消息，国际指数编制公司MSCI公布5月指数季度调整结果，其中，老虎证券获纳入MSCI中国全股票指数（MSCI China All Shares Index），将于5月27日收盘后生效。老虎证券创始人及CEO巫天华表示：“老虎证券获纳入MSCI中国全股票指数代表国际市场对我们长期投资价值和发展前景的认可和信心。老虎证券的使命是科技让投资更美好。通过不断技术迭代，我们致力于为投资者提供更高效、便捷、流畅的一站式全球投资体验。随着老虎进入新加坡，美国等国家和地区，我们期待服务更多全球用户。”MSCI（明晟）是目前全球最重要的指数公司，编制数百种全球各个市场的指数，被大量国际机构，投资者作为投资基准并跟踪。从 1969年发布第一只指数至今，MSCI按照国家和区域、市场规模大小、行业及投资方式的不同，主要提供指数、风险组合和业绩分析工具以及公司治理工具等产品和服务。全球约10万亿美元的资产以MSCI指数为基准，全球前100个最大资产管理者中，97个都是MSCI的客户。美国95%的投资权益的养老金以MSCI为基准。MSCI中国全股票指数(MSCI China All Shares Index)由摩根士丹利资本国际(MSCI)编制，是 MSCI新兴市场指数中最重要的组成部分。根据 MSCI指数的调整方法，能被纳入到其指数体系的公司一般要满足总市值、自由流通市值、流动性和交易时间等一系列要求。MSCI官网明晟中国全股票指数(MSCI China All Shares Index)历史表现：根据MSCI发布的季度调整结果， MSCI中国全股票指数本次新增60只个股，剔除26只股票。那么，上榜对于老虎意味着什么呢？意味着国际资本市场对老虎证券的认可和信心，有助于进一步扩大公司国际资本市场影响力、提升公司股东国际化水平。据 MSCI估算，全球数以万亿美元的资金跟踪新兴市场指数，其中既包含了主动型资金，又包含了被动型基金，被动型资金以明晟中国全股票指数作为投资标的。当股票被纳入指数后，被动型投资者会按比例配置新增这些成份股。详情查看：MSCI中国指数成分股调整说明","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"TIGR":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":5553,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":190552224,"gmtCreate":1620637306668,"gmtModify":1704345913235,"author":{"id":"3536928846214760","authorId":"3536928846214760","name":"東海吉龍","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0ef8466588cf515f97a20c636e2be8a0","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3536928846214760","idStr":"3536928846214760"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"666","listText":"666","text":"666","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/190552224","repostId":"2134638173","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":3414,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":104068993,"gmtCreate":1620345931912,"gmtModify":1704342217749,"author":{"id":"3536928846214760","authorId":"3536928846214760","name":"東海吉龍","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0ef8466588cf515f97a20c636e2be8a0","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3536928846214760","idStr":"3536928846214760"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"666","listText":"666","text":"666","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/104068993","repostId":"2133691576","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"2133691576","kind":"news","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"为用户提供金融资讯、行情、数据，旨在帮助投资者理解世界，做投资决策。","home_visible":1,"media_name":"老虎资讯综合","id":"102","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba"},"pubTimestamp":1620333000,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/2133691576?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2021-05-07 04:30","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"Dropbox Q1 revenue of $510 million, net income up 21% year over year","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2133691576","media":"老虎资讯综合","summary":"5月7日，云存储服务提供商Dropbox美股盘后公布了该公司的2021财年第一季度财报。报告显示，Dropbox第一季度总营收为5.116亿美元，与上年同期的4.550亿美元相比增长12%，不计入汇率","content":"<p>May 7, Cloud Storage Service Providers<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AMC\">Dropbox</a>U.S. stocks reported the company's first quarter fiscal 2021 earnings after the bell. According to the report, Dropbox's total revenue in the first quarter was US$511.6 million, an increase of 12% compared with US$455.0 million in the same period of last year. Excluding the impact of exchange rate changes, it was an increase of 11% year-on-year; Net income of $47.6 million, up 21% from net income of $39.3 million in the same period last year; Non-GAAP adjusted net income was $141.8 million, compared to $69.8 million a year earlier.</p><p>Dropbox's first-quarter revenue and adjusted earnings per share both beat Wall Street analysts' estimates, driving its shares up nearly 2% after hours.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7cdec3e6dcc56ee4828167017836a71e\" tg-width=\"1302\" tg-height=\"833\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><b>First quarter results summary:</b></p><p>Dropbox's total revenue in the first quarter was $511.6 million, an increase of 12% compared with $455.0 million in the same period last year. Excluding the impact of exchange rate changes, it was an increase of 11% year-on-year, which exceeded Wall Street analysts' expectations. According to<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/YHOO\">Yahoo</a>According to the data provided by the financial channel, nine analysts had expected Dropbox's total revenue in the first quarter to reach $505.18 million on average.</p><p>On a U.S. GAAP basis, Dropbox's first-quarter net income was $47.6 million, up 21% compared to a year-ago net income of $39.3 million. Excluding certain one-time items (not in accordance with U.S. GAAP), Dropbox reported adjusted net income of $141.8 million in the first quarter, compared to $69.8 million in the prior-year quarter.</p><p>On a U.S. GAAP basis, Dropbox's diluted earnings per share attributable to common shareholders were $0.12 in the first quarter, compared to $0.09 in the year-ago quarter. Excluding certain one-time items (not in accordance with U.S. GAAP), Dropbox's diluted earnings per share attributable to common shareholders were $0.35 in the first quarter, compared to $0.17 in the year-ago quarter, a performance that also beat Wall Street analysts' expectations. According to<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/YHOO\">Yahoo</a>According to data provided by the financial channel, the average of 10 analysts had expected Dropbox to report adjusted earnings of $0.3 per share in the first quarter.</p><p>Dropbox posted a gross profit of $402.3 million in the first quarter, compared to a gross profit of $351.9 million a year earlier. Dropbox earned $42.5 million from operations in the first quarter, compared to $26.8 million a year earlier.</p><p>Dropbox's total operating expenses were $359.8 million in the first quarter, compared to $325.1 million in the prior-year quarter. Of these, R&D expenditure was US$181.2 million, compared to US$181.8 million in the same period last year; Sales and marketing expenses were $102.7 million, compared to $104.3 million a year earlier; General and administrative expenses were $58.6 million, compared to $39 million in the prior year period; Impairment charges related to real assets were US$17.3 million, compared to no such charge in the same period last year.</p><p>Dropbox's total ARR (Accounting Yield Method, a measure of profitability) was $2.112 billion at the end of the first quarter, up 13% compared to the year-ago quarter. Excluding the impact of currency movements, Dropbox's total ARR at the end of the first quarter increased by $60.5 million compared to the previous quarter and 12% compared to the prior year quarter.</p><p>Dropbox had 15.83 million paid subscribers at the end of the first quarter, compared to 14.59 million at the end of the first quarter of fiscal 2020; The average revenue per paid user was $132.55, compared to $126.30 in the prior-year quarter.</p><p>On a U.S. GAAP basis, Dropbox had a gross margin of 78.6% in the first quarter, compared to 77.3% a year earlier. Excluding certain one-time items (not in accordance with U.S. GAAP), Dropbox's first-quarter gross margin was 80.2%, compared to 78.3% in the prior-year quarter.</p><p>On a U.S. GAAP basis, Dropbox's operating margin was 8.3% in the first quarter, compared to 5.9% a year earlier. Excluding certain one-time items (not in accordance with U.S. GAAP), Dropbox's operating margin was 29.1% in the first quarter, compared to 16.1% a year earlier.</p><p>Dropbox's net cash from business operating activities in the first quarter was $115.7 million, compared with $53.3 million in the same period last year. Dropbox's operating cash flow in the first quarter was $108.8 million, compared to $25.5 million in the prior-year quarter.</p><p>At the end of the first quarter, Dropbox held cash and cash equivalents and short-term investments totaling $1.916 billion.</p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Dropbox Q1 revenue of $510 million, net income up 21% year over year</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nDropbox Q1 revenue of $510 million, net income up 21% year over year\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/102\">\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">老虎资讯综合 </p>\n<p class=\"h-time smaller\">2021-05-07 04:30</p>\n</div>\n</a>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>May 7, Cloud Storage Service Providers<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AMC\">Dropbox</a>U.S. stocks reported the company's first quarter fiscal 2021 earnings after the bell. According to the report, Dropbox's total revenue in the first quarter was US$511.6 million, an increase of 12% compared with US$455.0 million in the same period of last year. Excluding the impact of exchange rate changes, it was an increase of 11% year-on-year; Net income of $47.6 million, up 21% from net income of $39.3 million in the same period last year; Non-GAAP adjusted net income was $141.8 million, compared to $69.8 million a year earlier.</p><p>Dropbox's first-quarter revenue and adjusted earnings per share both beat Wall Street analysts' estimates, driving its shares up nearly 2% after hours.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7cdec3e6dcc56ee4828167017836a71e\" tg-width=\"1302\" tg-height=\"833\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><b>First quarter results summary:</b></p><p>Dropbox's total revenue in the first quarter was $511.6 million, an increase of 12% compared with $455.0 million in the same period last year. Excluding the impact of exchange rate changes, it was an increase of 11% year-on-year, which exceeded Wall Street analysts' expectations. According to<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/YHOO\">Yahoo</a>According to the data provided by the financial channel, nine analysts had expected Dropbox's total revenue in the first quarter to reach $505.18 million on average.</p><p>On a U.S. GAAP basis, Dropbox's first-quarter net income was $47.6 million, up 21% compared to a year-ago net income of $39.3 million. Excluding certain one-time items (not in accordance with U.S. GAAP), Dropbox reported adjusted net income of $141.8 million in the first quarter, compared to $69.8 million in the prior-year quarter.</p><p>On a U.S. GAAP basis, Dropbox's diluted earnings per share attributable to common shareholders were $0.12 in the first quarter, compared to $0.09 in the year-ago quarter. Excluding certain one-time items (not in accordance with U.S. GAAP), Dropbox's diluted earnings per share attributable to common shareholders were $0.35 in the first quarter, compared to $0.17 in the year-ago quarter, a performance that also beat Wall Street analysts' expectations. According to<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/YHOO\">Yahoo</a>According to data provided by the financial channel, the average of 10 analysts had expected Dropbox to report adjusted earnings of $0.3 per share in the first quarter.</p><p>Dropbox posted a gross profit of $402.3 million in the first quarter, compared to a gross profit of $351.9 million a year earlier. Dropbox earned $42.5 million from operations in the first quarter, compared to $26.8 million a year earlier.</p><p>Dropbox's total operating expenses were $359.8 million in the first quarter, compared to $325.1 million in the prior-year quarter. Of these, R&D expenditure was US$181.2 million, compared to US$181.8 million in the same period last year; Sales and marketing expenses were $102.7 million, compared to $104.3 million a year earlier; General and administrative expenses were $58.6 million, compared to $39 million in the prior year period; Impairment charges related to real assets were US$17.3 million, compared to no such charge in the same period last year.</p><p>Dropbox's total ARR (Accounting Yield Method, a measure of profitability) was $2.112 billion at the end of the first quarter, up 13% compared to the year-ago quarter. Excluding the impact of currency movements, Dropbox's total ARR at the end of the first quarter increased by $60.5 million compared to the previous quarter and 12% compared to the prior year quarter.</p><p>Dropbox had 15.83 million paid subscribers at the end of the first quarter, compared to 14.59 million at the end of the first quarter of fiscal 2020; The average revenue per paid user was $132.55, compared to $126.30 in the prior-year quarter.</p><p>On a U.S. GAAP basis, Dropbox had a gross margin of 78.6% in the first quarter, compared to 77.3% a year earlier. Excluding certain one-time items (not in accordance with U.S. GAAP), Dropbox's first-quarter gross margin was 80.2%, compared to 78.3% in the prior-year quarter.</p><p>On a U.S. GAAP basis, Dropbox's operating margin was 8.3% in the first quarter, compared to 5.9% a year earlier. Excluding certain one-time items (not in accordance with U.S. GAAP), Dropbox's operating margin was 29.1% in the first quarter, compared to 16.1% a year earlier.</p><p>Dropbox's net cash from business operating activities in the first quarter was $115.7 million, compared with $53.3 million in the same period last year. Dropbox's operating cash flow in the first quarter was $108.8 million, compared to $25.5 million in the prior-year quarter.</p><p>At the end of the first quarter, Dropbox held cash and cash equivalents and short-term investments totaling $1.916 billion.</p>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3a51a02ea9a24f4d4f0b9e4e8e4c6bc7","relate_stocks":{"DBX":"Dropbox Inc."},"is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2133691576","content_text":"5月7日，云存储服务提供商Dropbox美股盘后公布了该公司的2021财年第一季度财报。报告显示，Dropbox第一季度总营收为5.116亿美元，与上年同期的4.550亿美元相比增长12%，不计入汇率变动的影响为同比增长11%；净利润为4760万美元，与上年同期的净利润3930万美元相比增长21%；不按照美国通用会计准则的调整后净利润为1.418亿美元，相比之下上年同期为6980万美元。\nDropbox第一季度营收和调整后每股收益均超出华尔街分析师预期，从而推动其盘后股价上涨近2%。\n\n第一季度业绩概要：\nDropbox第一季度总营收为5.116亿美元，与上年同期的4.550亿美元相比增长12%，不计入汇率变动的影响为同比增长11%，这一业绩超出华尔街分析师预期。据雅虎财经频道提供的数据显示，9名分析师此前平均预期Dropbox第一季度总营收将达5.0518亿美元。\n按照美国通用会计准则，Dropbox第一季度净利润为4760万美元，与上年同期的净利润3930万美元相比增长21%。不计入某些一次性项目（不按照美国通用会计准则），Dropbox第一季度的调整后净利润为1.418亿美元，相比之下上年同期为6980万美元。\n按照美国通用会计准则，Dropbox第一季度归属于普通股股东的每股摊薄收益为0.12美元，相比之下去年同期为0.09美元。不计入某些一次性项目（不按照美国通用会计准则），Dropbox第一季度归属于普通股股东的每股摊薄收益为0.35美元，相比之下去年同期为0.17美元，这一业绩也超出华尔街分析师预期。据雅虎财经频道提供的数据显示，10名分析师此前平均预期Dropbox第一季度调整后每股收益将达0.3美元。\nDropbox第一季度毛利润为4.023亿美元，相比之下上年同期的毛利润为3.519亿美元。Dropbox第一季度运营利润为4250万美元，相比之下上年同期为2680万美元。\nDropbox第一季度总运营支出为3.598亿美元，相比之下上年同期为3.251亿美元。其中，研发支出为1.812亿美元，相比之下上年同期为1.818亿美元；销售和营销支出为1.027亿美元，相比之下上年同期为1.043亿美元；总务和行政支出为5860万美元，相比之下上年同期为3900万美元；与不动产资产相关的减值支出为1730万美元，而上年同期并无这项支出。\n截至第一季度末，Dropbox的总ARR（会计收益率法，一种衡量盈利性的方法）为21.12亿美元，与上年同期相比增长13%。不计入汇率变动影响，Dropbox截至第一季度末的总ARR与上一季度相比增长6050万美元，与上年同期相比增长12%。\n截至第一季度末，Dropbox的付费用户人数为1583万人，相比之下截至2020财年第一季度末为1459万人；平均每付费用户收入为132.55美元，相比之下上年同期为126.30美元。\n按照美国通用会计准则，Dropbox第一季度毛利率为78.6%，相比之下上年同期为77.3%。不计入某些一次性项目（不按照美国通用会计准则），Dropbox第一季度毛利率为80.2%，相比之下上年同期为78.3%。\n按照美国通用会计准则，Dropbox第一季度运营利润率为8.3%，相比之下上年同期为5.9%。不计入某些一次性项目（不按照美国通用会计准则），Dropbox第一季度运营利润率为29.1%，相比之下上年同期为16.1%。\nDropbox第一季度来自于业务运营活动的净现金为1.157亿美元，相比之下上年同期为5330万美元。Dropbox第一季度运营现金流为1.088亿美元，相比之下上年同期为2550万美元。\n截至第一季度末，Dropbox所持现金和现金等价物以及短期投资总额为19.16亿美元。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"DBX":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":4722,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":104061675,"gmtCreate":1620345903697,"gmtModify":1704342216448,"author":{"id":"3536928846214760","authorId":"3536928846214760","name":"東海吉龍","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0ef8466588cf515f97a20c636e2be8a0","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3536928846214760","idStr":"3536928846214760"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"666","listText":"666","text":"666","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/104061675","repostId":"2133691576","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"2133691576","kind":"news","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"为用户提供金融资讯、行情、数据，旨在帮助投资者理解世界，做投资决策。","home_visible":1,"media_name":"老虎资讯综合","id":"102","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba"},"pubTimestamp":1620333000,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/2133691576?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2021-05-07 04:30","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"Dropbox Q1 revenue of $510 million, net income up 21% year over year","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2133691576","media":"老虎资讯综合","summary":"5月7日，云存储服务提供商Dropbox美股盘后公布了该公司的2021财年第一季度财报。报告显示，Dropbox第一季度总营收为5.116亿美元，与上年同期的4.550亿美元相比增长12%，不计入汇率","content":"<p>May 7, Cloud Storage Service Providers<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AMC\">Dropbox</a>U.S. stocks reported the company's first quarter fiscal 2021 earnings after the bell. According to the report, Dropbox's total revenue in the first quarter was US$511.6 million, an increase of 12% compared with US$455.0 million in the same period of last year. Excluding the impact of exchange rate changes, it was an increase of 11% year-on-year; Net income of $47.6 million, up 21% from net income of $39.3 million in the same period last year; Non-GAAP adjusted net income was $141.8 million, compared to $69.8 million a year earlier.</p><p>Dropbox's first-quarter revenue and adjusted earnings per share both beat Wall Street analysts' estimates, driving its shares up nearly 2% after hours.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7cdec3e6dcc56ee4828167017836a71e\" tg-width=\"1302\" tg-height=\"833\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><b>First quarter results summary:</b></p><p>Dropbox's total revenue in the first quarter was $511.6 million, an increase of 12% compared with $455.0 million in the same period last year. Excluding the impact of exchange rate changes, it was an increase of 11% year-on-year, which exceeded Wall Street analysts' expectations. According to<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/YHOO\">Yahoo</a>According to the data provided by the financial channel, nine analysts had expected Dropbox's total revenue in the first quarter to reach $505.18 million on average.</p><p>On a U.S. GAAP basis, Dropbox's first-quarter net income was $47.6 million, up 21% compared to a year-ago net income of $39.3 million. Excluding certain one-time items (not in accordance with U.S. GAAP), Dropbox reported adjusted net income of $141.8 million in the first quarter, compared to $69.8 million in the prior-year quarter.</p><p>On a U.S. GAAP basis, Dropbox's diluted earnings per share attributable to common shareholders were $0.12 in the first quarter, compared to $0.09 in the year-ago quarter. Excluding certain one-time items (not in accordance with U.S. GAAP), Dropbox's diluted earnings per share attributable to common shareholders were $0.35 in the first quarter, compared to $0.17 in the year-ago quarter, a performance that also beat Wall Street analysts' expectations. According to<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/YHOO\">Yahoo</a>According to data provided by the financial channel, the average of 10 analysts had expected Dropbox to report adjusted earnings of $0.3 per share in the first quarter.</p><p>Dropbox posted a gross profit of $402.3 million in the first quarter, compared to a gross profit of $351.9 million a year earlier. Dropbox earned $42.5 million from operations in the first quarter, compared to $26.8 million a year earlier.</p><p>Dropbox's total operating expenses were $359.8 million in the first quarter, compared to $325.1 million in the prior-year quarter. Of these, R&D expenditure was US$181.2 million, compared to US$181.8 million in the same period last year; Sales and marketing expenses were $102.7 million, compared to $104.3 million a year earlier; General and administrative expenses were $58.6 million, compared to $39 million in the prior year period; Impairment charges related to real assets were US$17.3 million, compared to no such charge in the same period last year.</p><p>Dropbox's total ARR (Accounting Yield Method, a measure of profitability) was $2.112 billion at the end of the first quarter, up 13% compared to the year-ago quarter. Excluding the impact of currency movements, Dropbox's total ARR at the end of the first quarter increased by $60.5 million compared to the previous quarter and 12% compared to the prior year quarter.</p><p>Dropbox had 15.83 million paid subscribers at the end of the first quarter, compared to 14.59 million at the end of the first quarter of fiscal 2020; The average revenue per paid user was $132.55, compared to $126.30 in the prior-year quarter.</p><p>On a U.S. GAAP basis, Dropbox had a gross margin of 78.6% in the first quarter, compared to 77.3% a year earlier. Excluding certain one-time items (not in accordance with U.S. GAAP), Dropbox's first-quarter gross margin was 80.2%, compared to 78.3% in the prior-year quarter.</p><p>On a U.S. GAAP basis, Dropbox's operating margin was 8.3% in the first quarter, compared to 5.9% a year earlier. Excluding certain one-time items (not in accordance with U.S. GAAP), Dropbox's operating margin was 29.1% in the first quarter, compared to 16.1% a year earlier.</p><p>Dropbox's net cash from business operating activities in the first quarter was $115.7 million, compared with $53.3 million in the same period last year. Dropbox's operating cash flow in the first quarter was $108.8 million, compared to $25.5 million in the prior-year quarter.</p><p>At the end of the first quarter, Dropbox held cash and cash equivalents and short-term investments totaling $1.916 billion.</p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Dropbox Q1 revenue of $510 million, net income up 21% year over year</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nDropbox Q1 revenue of $510 million, net income up 21% year over year\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/102\">\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">老虎资讯综合 </p>\n<p class=\"h-time smaller\">2021-05-07 04:30</p>\n</div>\n</a>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>May 7, Cloud Storage Service Providers<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AMC\">Dropbox</a>U.S. stocks reported the company's first quarter fiscal 2021 earnings after the bell. According to the report, Dropbox's total revenue in the first quarter was US$511.6 million, an increase of 12% compared with US$455.0 million in the same period of last year. Excluding the impact of exchange rate changes, it was an increase of 11% year-on-year; Net income of $47.6 million, up 21% from net income of $39.3 million in the same period last year; Non-GAAP adjusted net income was $141.8 million, compared to $69.8 million a year earlier.</p><p>Dropbox's first-quarter revenue and adjusted earnings per share both beat Wall Street analysts' estimates, driving its shares up nearly 2% after hours.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7cdec3e6dcc56ee4828167017836a71e\" tg-width=\"1302\" tg-height=\"833\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><b>First quarter results summary:</b></p><p>Dropbox's total revenue in the first quarter was $511.6 million, an increase of 12% compared with $455.0 million in the same period last year. Excluding the impact of exchange rate changes, it was an increase of 11% year-on-year, which exceeded Wall Street analysts' expectations. According to<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/YHOO\">Yahoo</a>According to the data provided by the financial channel, nine analysts had expected Dropbox's total revenue in the first quarter to reach $505.18 million on average.</p><p>On a U.S. GAAP basis, Dropbox's first-quarter net income was $47.6 million, up 21% compared to a year-ago net income of $39.3 million. Excluding certain one-time items (not in accordance with U.S. GAAP), Dropbox reported adjusted net income of $141.8 million in the first quarter, compared to $69.8 million in the prior-year quarter.</p><p>On a U.S. GAAP basis, Dropbox's diluted earnings per share attributable to common shareholders were $0.12 in the first quarter, compared to $0.09 in the year-ago quarter. Excluding certain one-time items (not in accordance with U.S. GAAP), Dropbox's diluted earnings per share attributable to common shareholders were $0.35 in the first quarter, compared to $0.17 in the year-ago quarter, a performance that also beat Wall Street analysts' expectations. According to<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/YHOO\">Yahoo</a>According to data provided by the financial channel, the average of 10 analysts had expected Dropbox to report adjusted earnings of $0.3 per share in the first quarter.</p><p>Dropbox posted a gross profit of $402.3 million in the first quarter, compared to a gross profit of $351.9 million a year earlier. Dropbox earned $42.5 million from operations in the first quarter, compared to $26.8 million a year earlier.</p><p>Dropbox's total operating expenses were $359.8 million in the first quarter, compared to $325.1 million in the prior-year quarter. Of these, R&D expenditure was US$181.2 million, compared to US$181.8 million in the same period last year; Sales and marketing expenses were $102.7 million, compared to $104.3 million a year earlier; General and administrative expenses were $58.6 million, compared to $39 million in the prior year period; Impairment charges related to real assets were US$17.3 million, compared to no such charge in the same period last year.</p><p>Dropbox's total ARR (Accounting Yield Method, a measure of profitability) was $2.112 billion at the end of the first quarter, up 13% compared to the year-ago quarter. Excluding the impact of currency movements, Dropbox's total ARR at the end of the first quarter increased by $60.5 million compared to the previous quarter and 12% compared to the prior year quarter.</p><p>Dropbox had 15.83 million paid subscribers at the end of the first quarter, compared to 14.59 million at the end of the first quarter of fiscal 2020; The average revenue per paid user was $132.55, compared to $126.30 in the prior-year quarter.</p><p>On a U.S. GAAP basis, Dropbox had a gross margin of 78.6% in the first quarter, compared to 77.3% a year earlier. Excluding certain one-time items (not in accordance with U.S. GAAP), Dropbox's first-quarter gross margin was 80.2%, compared to 78.3% in the prior-year quarter.</p><p>On a U.S. GAAP basis, Dropbox's operating margin was 8.3% in the first quarter, compared to 5.9% a year earlier. Excluding certain one-time items (not in accordance with U.S. GAAP), Dropbox's operating margin was 29.1% in the first quarter, compared to 16.1% a year earlier.</p><p>Dropbox's net cash from business operating activities in the first quarter was $115.7 million, compared with $53.3 million in the same period last year. Dropbox's operating cash flow in the first quarter was $108.8 million, compared to $25.5 million in the prior-year quarter.</p><p>At the end of the first quarter, Dropbox held cash and cash equivalents and short-term investments totaling $1.916 billion.</p>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3a51a02ea9a24f4d4f0b9e4e8e4c6bc7","relate_stocks":{"DBX":"Dropbox Inc."},"is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2133691576","content_text":"5月7日，云存储服务提供商Dropbox美股盘后公布了该公司的2021财年第一季度财报。报告显示，Dropbox第一季度总营收为5.116亿美元，与上年同期的4.550亿美元相比增长12%，不计入汇率变动的影响为同比增长11%；净利润为4760万美元，与上年同期的净利润3930万美元相比增长21%；不按照美国通用会计准则的调整后净利润为1.418亿美元，相比之下上年同期为6980万美元。\nDropbox第一季度营收和调整后每股收益均超出华尔街分析师预期，从而推动其盘后股价上涨近2%。\n\n第一季度业绩概要：\nDropbox第一季度总营收为5.116亿美元，与上年同期的4.550亿美元相比增长12%，不计入汇率变动的影响为同比增长11%，这一业绩超出华尔街分析师预期。据雅虎财经频道提供的数据显示，9名分析师此前平均预期Dropbox第一季度总营收将达5.0518亿美元。\n按照美国通用会计准则，Dropbox第一季度净利润为4760万美元，与上年同期的净利润3930万美元相比增长21%。不计入某些一次性项目（不按照美国通用会计准则），Dropbox第一季度的调整后净利润为1.418亿美元，相比之下上年同期为6980万美元。\n按照美国通用会计准则，Dropbox第一季度归属于普通股股东的每股摊薄收益为0.12美元，相比之下去年同期为0.09美元。不计入某些一次性项目（不按照美国通用会计准则），Dropbox第一季度归属于普通股股东的每股摊薄收益为0.35美元，相比之下去年同期为0.17美元，这一业绩也超出华尔街分析师预期。据雅虎财经频道提供的数据显示，10名分析师此前平均预期Dropbox第一季度调整后每股收益将达0.3美元。\nDropbox第一季度毛利润为4.023亿美元，相比之下上年同期的毛利润为3.519亿美元。Dropbox第一季度运营利润为4250万美元，相比之下上年同期为2680万美元。\nDropbox第一季度总运营支出为3.598亿美元，相比之下上年同期为3.251亿美元。其中，研发支出为1.812亿美元，相比之下上年同期为1.818亿美元；销售和营销支出为1.027亿美元，相比之下上年同期为1.043亿美元；总务和行政支出为5860万美元，相比之下上年同期为3900万美元；与不动产资产相关的减值支出为1730万美元，而上年同期并无这项支出。\n截至第一季度末，Dropbox的总ARR（会计收益率法，一种衡量盈利性的方法）为21.12亿美元，与上年同期相比增长13%。不计入汇率变动影响，Dropbox截至第一季度末的总ARR与上一季度相比增长6050万美元，与上年同期相比增长12%。\n截至第一季度末，Dropbox的付费用户人数为1583万人，相比之下截至2020财年第一季度末为1459万人；平均每付费用户收入为132.55美元，相比之下上年同期为126.30美元。\n按照美国通用会计准则，Dropbox第一季度毛利率为78.6%，相比之下上年同期为77.3%。不计入某些一次性项目（不按照美国通用会计准则），Dropbox第一季度毛利率为80.2%，相比之下上年同期为78.3%。\n按照美国通用会计准则，Dropbox第一季度运营利润率为8.3%，相比之下上年同期为5.9%。不计入某些一次性项目（不按照美国通用会计准则），Dropbox第一季度运营利润率为29.1%，相比之下上年同期为16.1%。\nDropbox第一季度来自于业务运营活动的净现金为1.157亿美元，相比之下上年同期为5330万美元。Dropbox第一季度运营现金流为1.088亿美元，相比之下上年同期为2550万美元。\n截至第一季度末，Dropbox所持现金和现金等价物以及短期投资总额为19.16亿美元。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"DBX":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":3016,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":105814116,"gmtCreate":1620288877035,"gmtModify":1704341380288,"author":{"id":"3536928846214760","authorId":"3536928846214760","name":"東海吉龍","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0ef8466588cf515f97a20c636e2be8a0","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3536928846214760","idStr":"3536928846214760"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"666","listText":"666","text":"666","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/105814116","repostId":"1180972135","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":3367,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":108049131,"gmtCreate":1619966745623,"gmtModify":1704336845529,"author":{"id":"3536928846214760","authorId":"3536928846214760","name":"東海吉龍","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0ef8466588cf515f97a20c636e2be8a0","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3536928846214760","idStr":"3536928846214760"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"66666","listText":"66666","text":"66666","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/108049131","repostId":"2132182593","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":5690,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":108054251,"gmtCreate":1619966313173,"gmtModify":1704336841241,"author":{"id":"3536928846214760","authorId":"3536928846214760","name":"東海吉龍","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0ef8466588cf515f97a20c636e2be8a0","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3536928846214760","idStr":"3536928846214760"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"666","listText":"666","text":"666","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/108054251","repostId":"2132567538","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"2132567538","kind":"highlight","pubTimestamp":1619941518,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/2132567538?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2021-05-02 15:45","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"Is the GDP of the United States strong or weak in the first quarter?","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2132567538","media":"智通财经网","summary":"本文来自“申万宏源宏观”。摘要一、周观点：美国一季度GDP究竟是偏强还是偏弱?21Q1美国GDP同比0.4%，略低于市场预期。美国21Q1  GDP实际同比0.4%，疫情以来首次同比转正，环比1.6%","content":"<p><b>This article comes from \"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/000166\">Shen Wan Hongyuan</a>Macro \".</b></p><p>Abstract</p><p><b>1. Week's Viewpoint: Is the GDP of the United States strong or weak in the first quarter?</b></p><p><b>21Q1 U.S. GDP was 0.4% year-on-year, slightly below market expectations.</b>U.S. GDP in 21Q1 was actually 0.4% year-on-year, turning positive year-on-year for the first time since the pandemic, and 1.6% quarter-on-quarter. The main contributing factors were commodity consumption, service consumption and non-residential investment, which showed the rapid recovery of the US economy under the improvement of the epidemic situation and financial subsidies. However, the main drag items are the change of private inventory and imports. In fact, the GDP growth rate of the United States in the first quarter was slightly lower than the market expectation, indicating that the market lacked understanding of the slow production recovery caused by excessive financial subsidies in the United States, and the expectation of excessive optimism about the improvement of the epidemic situation.</p><p><b>Resident consumption: subsidies promote commodity consumption, and the service industry is repaired when the epidemic eases.</b>1) In 21Q1, U.S. personal consumption expenditure drove GDP by 1.1 percentage points year-on-year, a significant improvement of 3 percentage points compared with 20Q4. Commodity consumption is mainly driven by durable goods, while the improvement of service consumption on GDP is greater than that of durable goods consumption; 2) From the perspective of monthly high frequency, PCE in March was 8.5% year-on-year and 3.7% month-on-month, and it strengthened again after a slight drop in the vacuum period of direct subsidies in February. It shows the immediate stimulating effect of the subsidy payment of $1,400 in March on consumption, and the recovery of service consumption under the relaxation of prevention and control measures. However, judging from the intensity of service consumption recovery, it is actually slightly weaker than the overly optimistic expectation of overseas markets in February-March.</p><p><b>Investment: Equipment investment improved significantly, interest rates inhibited real estate investment, and inventory replenishment did not appear.</b>In 21Q1, domestic private investment drove GDP by 0.8 percentage points year-on-year, a slight improvement of 0.1 percentage points compared with the fourth quarter. 1) Improvement in non-residential investment shows that the U.S. production sector expects an improvement in the economic outlook; 2) The decline in the year-on-year contribution of private inventory changes to 21Q1 GDP is the manifestation of the tear of supply and demand in the US economy. The demand is strong and the production recovers slowly, which leads to the decline of inventory, which means that the strength of commodity prices in Q1 cannot be supported by the logic of strong industrial production and active inventory replenishment in the US; 3) The year-on-year contribution of residential investment to GDP remained basically stable, while the month-on-month growth rate was suppressed with the overall rise of US interest rate in the previous period. The follow-up is expected to continue to cool with the medium-term upward process of interest rates.</p><p><b>Government spending and net exports: Subsidies drive government spending to increase, and the widening gap between supply and demand leads to a high increase in imports.</b>The tear of supply and demand in the U.S. economy has led to the deepening of the drag of net exports on GDP. In 21Q1, net exports dragged down GDP by 2 percentage points year-on-year, and the degree of drag widened by 0.7 percentage points compared with the previous 20Q4. Government expenditure in 21Q1 increased GDP by 0.1 percentage point year-on-year, mainly due to the issuance of direct subsidy checks for residents by the U.S. government to the banking system and the cost of purchasing vaccines.</p><p><b>It is expected that the economic recovery of the United States will be at a high point in the second quarter, and we will pay attention to the follow-up progress of the epidemic.</b>We believe that the strength of the future economic recovery in the United States depends on the vaccination process and the spread of COVID-19. Under the assumption that the epidemic situation in the United States continues to ease and the service industry is gradually recovering, it is expected that the second quarter will be the high point of recovery of the United States economy. However, the tear between supply and demand caused by excessive subsidies will continue until September, and the strength of the recovery of the United States economy during the year may not be as strong as the market expectations. Personal consumption expenditure: It is expected that the first quarter will be the high point of commodity consumption, and the service industry consumption will continue to gradually recover with the easing of the epidemic. However, the spread of more contagious virus variants in the United States and overseas countries will also affect the recovery intensity of the subsequent service industry; Investment: Improvements in non-residential investments require attention to subsequent pandemic progress. Residential investment will decline with the gradual cooling of the real estate market; Private inventory movements may have to wait until the end of unemployment benefits in September to improve. Government spending and net exports: Government spending is expected to continue to contribute positively to GDP year-on-year until the fourth quarter. Net exports will return to normal levels as the supply-demand gap narrows later this year.</p><p><b>Global macro data</b></p><p><b>High Frequency Data This Week</b>: New orders for durable goods in the United States all rose year-on-year</p><p><b>Pandemic</b>: New confirmed cases in the U.S. declined.</p><p><b>Demand</b>: Japanese retail sales picked up sharply year-on-year.</p><p><b>Supply and Employment</b>: New orders for durable goods in the United States all rose year-on-year.</p><p><b>TRADE</b>: The imports and exports of the United States rose sharply year-on-year in March.</p><p><b>Inflation and Commodities</b>: Oil prices rose slightly.</p><p><b>REALTY</b>: The contracted sales index of existing homes in the United States rose in March.</p><p><b>Monetary Policy and Exchange Rates</b>: the US Dollar Index falls, gold prices stable.</p><p><b>Global Macro Calendar</b>: Watch US ISM Manufacturing PMI</p><p>text</p><p><b>1. Week's Viewpoint: Is the GDP of the United States strong or weak in the first quarter?</b></p><p><b>1.21Q1 U.S. GDP 0.4% YoY, slightly below market expectations</b></p><p>The GDP of the United States in 21Q1 was actually 0.4% year-on-year, turning positive year-on-year for the first time since the epidemic, and 1.6% month-on-month. The main contributing factors were commodity consumption, service consumption and non-residential investment, which showed a relatively rapid recovery of the US economy under the improvement of the epidemic situation and financial subsidies. The main drag items are private inventory changes and imports, and in fact, the GDP growth rate of the United States in the first quarter was slightly lower than the market expectation, indicating that the market has insufficient awareness of the slow production recovery caused by excessive financial subsidies in the United States, and its overly optimistic expectation of the improvement of the epidemic situation.</p><p><img src=\"http://img.zhitongcaijing.com/images/contentformat/867b3b31bf5a4410ca85884cf283ce1f.jpg\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"588\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><b>2. Resident consumption: subsidies promote commodity consumption, the epidemic eases and the service industry repairs</b></p><p>In 21Q1, financial subsidies of up to 2,000 USD/person stimulated commodity consumption; The easing of the pandemic promoted the recovery of service consumption, but it was slightly weaker than the optimistic expectation of overseas markets in the previous period. 1) From a quarterly perspective, the personal consumption expenditure of the United States in 21Q1 drove GDP by 1.1 percentage points year-on-year, a substantial improvement of 3 percentage points compared with 20Q4. It jumped from the biggest drag on GDP in the fourth quarter to the biggest contribution, showing that the first quarter had the stimulating effect of the subsidy of 600 USD in January and the subsidy of 1,400 USD issued in March on consumption, and the gradual release of service consumption under the easing of the epidemic. 2) From the perspective of monthly high frequency, PCE reached 8.5% year-on-year and 3.7% month-on-month in March, and strengthened again after a slight drop in the vacuum period of direct subsidies in February. Among them, the year-on-year growth rate of durable goods and service consumption increased again, reaching 43.3% and 4.8% respectively in March, while non-durable goods slowed down slightly (4.3%) year-on-year, showing that the subsidy payment of $1,400 in March had an immediate stimulating effect on consumption, and the recovery of service consumption under the relaxation of prevention and control measures. However, judging from the intensity of service consumption recovery, it is actually slightly weaker than the overly optimistic expectation of overseas markets in February-March.</p><p><img src=\"http://img.zhitongcaijing.com/images/contentformat/fb6a3cdada866cc05b11f3b44abb7b40.jpg\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"398\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>Commodity consumption and service consumption jointly drive the high increase of personal consumption expenditure. 1) Commodity consumption is mainly driven by durable goods. In 21Q1, commodity consumption increased by 3.2 percentage points to GDP, an improvement of 1.5 percentage points compared with 20Q4, mainly due to the high increase of durable goods under the fiscal stimulus in the first quarter. In 21Q1, the contribution of durable goods to GDP improved significantly by 1.3 percentage points compared with the fourth quarter, while the contribution of non-durable goods to GDP only improved slightly by 0.3 percentage points; 2) The improvement of service consumption on GDP is greater than that of durable goods consumption. In 21Q1, although service consumption still had a negative pull of-1.4% on GDP, it has significantly improved by 1.6 percentage points compared with the previous quarter, which is even more than that of durable goods consumption, showing that service consumption has greater flexibility to improve under the dual factors of financial subsidy + epidemic easing.</p><p><img src=\"http://img.zhitongcaijing.com/images/contentformat/e8b1b37f95a3c799e28a194bc63e56e7.jpg\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"399\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><b>3. Investment: Equipment investment improved significantly, interest rates inhibited real estate investment, and inventory replenishment did not appear</b></p><p>The effect of non-residential investment on GDP has greatly improved, and private inventory has turned into a drag. In 21Q1, domestic private investment drove GDP by 0.8 percentage points year-on-year, a slight improvement of 0.1 percentage points compared with the fourth quarter.</p><p>1) Improvement in non-residential investment shows that the U.S. production sector has improved its expectations for the economic outlook. The main contributor to the improvement in private investment was non-residential investment (0.6 percentage point improvement), mainly from equipment investment, indicating that manufacturing enterprises remain optimistic about the prospect of economic recovery.</p><p>2) The decline in the year-on-year contribution of private inventory changes to 21Q1 GDP is the manifestation of the tear of supply and demand in the US economy. Strong demand and slow production recovery lead to the decline of inventory, which means that the strength of commodity prices in Q1 cannot be supported by the logic of strong industrial production and active inventory replenishment in the US. The main drag on private investment was the movement of private inventories (0.4 percentage point drag).</p><p>3) The year-on-year contribution of residential investment to GDP remained basically stable, while the month-on-month growth rate was suppressed with the overall rise of US interest rate in the previous period. It is expected that the follow-up will continue to cool with the medium-term upward process of interest rates. In 21Q1, the pull of residential investment on GDP remained stable, but with the gradual increase of mortgage interest rates in the past 21 years, the U.S. real estate market has cooled down, and the expenditure on residential construction and sales of existing houses have slowed down. It is expected that the pull effect of subsequent residential investment on GDP will gradually decline.</p><p><img src=\"http://img.zhitongcaijing.com/images/contentformat/8831f8bd60fdfc9671df61b6e741faaa.jpg\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"393\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><b>4. Government spending and net exports: Subsidies boost government spending, and the widening gap between supply and demand leads to a high increase in imports</b></p><p>The tear of supply and demand in the U.S. economy has led to the deepening of the drag of net exports on GDP. In 21Q1, net exports dragged down GDP by 2 percentage points year-on-year, and the degree of drag widened by 0.7 percentage points compared with the previous 20Q4. 1) Exports were dragged down by 1 percentage point, but they have improved by 0.2 percentage points compared with the previous quarter, showing a slight recovery of industrial production in the United States, but the improvement of personal consumption expenditure by 3.0 percentage points is still dwarfed by comparison, which actually reflects the widening of supply and demand gap in 21Q1 under excessive financial subsidies in the United States; 2) In 21Q1, imports dragged down GDP by 1.0 percentage points year-on-year, and the degree of drag greatly expanded by 0.9 percentage points compared with the previous quarter. The direct consequence of the widening gap between supply and demand in the United States is the expansion of import scale.</p><p>Government expenditure in 21Q1 increased GDP by 0.1 percentage point year-on-year, mainly due to the issuance of direct subsidy checks for residents by the U.S. government to the banking system and the cost of purchasing vaccines.</p><p><img src=\"http://img.zhitongcaijing.com/images/contentformat/1e6d4ceb162a00ae93de51b3cf6bb71b.jpg\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"386\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><b>5. It is expected that the U.S. economic recovery will be at a high point in the second quarter, and pay attention to the follow-up progress of the epidemic</b></p><p>Looking ahead, we believe that the strength of future U.S. economic recovery depends on the vaccination process and the spread of COVID-19. Under the assumption that the epidemic situation in the United States continues to ease and the service industry is gradually recovering, it is expected that the second quarter will be the high point of recovery of the United States economy. However, the tear between supply and demand caused by excessive subsidies will continue until September, and the strength of the recovery of the United States economy during the year may not be as strong as the market expectations.</p><p>Personal consumption expenditure: 1) Although 21Q1 commodity consumption shows an extremely strong momentum, we expect the first quarter to be the high point of commodity consumption, and it will gradually decline with the subsidy ebb; 2) The consumption of the service industry will continue to recover gradually as the epidemic eases, but the global epidemic has rebounded since March, especially in European countries and emerging countries. At the same time, the spread of more contagious virus variants in the United States and overseas countries will also affect the recovery intensity of the subsequent service industry.</p><p>Investment: 1) The main driving force of the improvement of non-residential investment in 21Q1 is the expectation of economic improvement. From the current point of view, the global epidemic is the core factor determining the intensity of economic recovery, and it is necessary to pay attention to the follow-up epidemic progress; 2) Residential investment will decline with the gradual cooling of the real estate market; 3) The change of private inventory, that is, the intensity of inventory replenishment, will depend on whether the current situation of supply and demand tearing in the United States can be eased. From the current point of view, it will take until the unemployment subsidy ends in September before there will be a significant bridging trend at both ends of supply and demand in the United States, which will then drive inventory investment.</p><p>Government expenditure and net exports: 1) With the continuous payment of unemployment subsidies in the second and third quarters, government expenditure is expected to continue to make a positive contribution to GDP year-on-year before the fourth quarter, and if the U.S. Employment Plan or the American Family Plan can be implemented within the year, it will also boost the level of government expenditure; In terms of net exports, exports will depend on the progress of the recovery of industrial production in the United States. As mentioned above, they will not be boosted until the fourth quarter, while imports, on the contrary, will fall back to normal levels as the supply-demand gap narrows later this year.</p><p><img src=\"http://img.zhitongcaijing.com/images/contentformat/32e1b124c2e79173310a2a69f29f1ee7.jpg\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"547\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><b>2. Global macro data: New confirmed cases in the United States declined</b></p><p><b>1. Epidemic: New confirmed cases in the United States decline</b></p><p>New confirmed cases in the U.S. dropped this week. The number of newly confirmed cases in the United States dropped to more than 53,000 on average on 7 days. As of April 29th, the global COVID-19 epidemic has been diagnosed more than 150 million, with 3.14 million deaths and 120 million recoveries. This week (April 27th-April 30th), there were 220,000 and 9,000 newly confirmed cases in the United States and the United Kingdom respectively.</p><p>As of April 28, Israel has received the most COVID-19 vaccines per 100 people worldwide, reaching 121.1 shots per 100 people, 70.2 shots per 100 people in the United States and 70.9 shots per 100 people in the United Kingdom. As of April 28, Israel had the highest proportion of fully vaccinated people in the world, at 58.7%, while the United States and Britain had 29.3% and 20.7% respectively.</p><p><img src=\"http://img.zhitongcaijing.com/images/contentformat/887a942234cb8fe459a2f83e1d51371f.jpg\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"591\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><img src=\"http://img.zhitongcaijing.com/images/contentformat/62573bfd15fa133a1b4a5d4e236f878d.jpg\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"397\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><b>2. Demand: Japanese retail sales picked up sharply year-on-year</b></p><p>Both retail sales and wholesale sales in Japan rose sharply year-on-year. Japan's retail sales index in March was 5.3% year-on-year, of which retail textiles and apparel were 15.8% year-on-year, and the wholesale sales index in March was 1.0% year-on-year.</p><p><img src=\"http://img.zhitongcaijing.com/images/contentformat/a115423dbfa92a2b68fd1ddba7b7202c.jpg\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"432\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>South Korea's retail sales continued to grow year-on-year in March, and semi-durable goods consumption increased significantly. South Korea's retail sales in March increased by 3.5 percentage points to 13.5% year-on-year, of which the consumption of semi-durable goods grew the fastest, 35.5% year-on-year; Durable goods were 13.6% and non-durable goods were 6.5% year-on-year.</p><p><img src=\"http://img.zhitongcaijing.com/images/contentformat/660433692ab7c356ac6e92af5532c956.jpg\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"549\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><b>3. Supply and employment: New orders for durable goods in the United States all rose year-on-year</b></p><p>The inventory of durable goods in the United States increased, and the growth rate of new orders both increased year-on-year. U.S. durable goods inventories reached $431.84 billion in March, up 1.0% month-over-month and 1.7% year-over-year. New orders for durable goods in the United States rose 0.5% month-on-month in March and rose sharply by 25% year-on-year.</p><p><img src=\"http://img.zhitongcaijing.com/images/contentformat/00d167c28987b587b0353bdb22cabcb3.jpg\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"397\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>Japan's unemployment rate fell to 2.6% in March. Japan's unemployment rate fell 0.3 percentage points to 2.6% in March from the previous month. South Korea's industrial production index increased year-on-year, and the industry continued to rebound. South Korea's industrial production index rose 5.7% year-on-year and 0.8% month-on-month to 112.6 in March.</p><p><img src=\"http://img.zhitongcaijing.com/images/contentformat/3e518f69ea70eb9423bd2c4c0800a9d4.jpg\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"393\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>U.S. industrial materials production continues to rise. 1) As of the week of April 24th, the weekly crude steel output in the United States increased by 43.6% year-on-year, and the capacity utilization rate increased slightly by 0.4 percentage points from last week to 78.4%; 2) U.S. refinery operable capacity utilization rose 0.4 percentage points to 85.4% as of April 23.</p><p><img src=\"http://img.zhitongcaijing.com/images/contentformat/08378049f4011957a1ca13a61b5f7ee9.jpg\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"395\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>The number of initial claims for unemployment benefits in the United States fell slightly that week, and the number of continuing claims for unemployment benefits rose slightly. On the week of April 24th, the number of initial unemployment claims in the United States reached 553,000, down 13,000 from last week; In the week of April 17th, the number of people who continued to claim unemployment benefits reached 3.66 million, an increase of 9,000 from the previous month.</p><p><img src=\"http://img.zhitongcaijing.com/images/contentformat/50abaebb23322c65845134f36edf2eac.jpg\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"550\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><b>4. Trade: U.S. imports and exports both rose sharply year-on-year in March</b></p><p>U.S. imports and exports both rose sharply year-on-year in March. The growth rate of U.S. exports in March rose sharply by 16.5 percentage points from the previous month to 11.5%, while imports increased by 20.6% year-on-year. The U.S. goods trade balance in March was-$90.59 billion.</p><p><img src=\"http://img.zhitongcaijing.com/images/contentformat/b94fcaf0b73f26e0f7e86a9f8b746b80.jpg\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"549\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><b>5. Inflation and commodities: Oil prices edge up</b></p><p>EIA crude oil inventories rose by 9 million barrels in the week of April 28, and U.S. crude oil production fell slightly by 100,000 barrels per day to 10.9 million barrels per day. As of April 29th, the weekly average price of WTI crude oil rose to $63.2/barrel; The average weekly price of Brent oil rose to $66.6/barrel.</p><p><img src=\"http://img.zhitongcaijing.com/images/contentformat/2ea9504a69c4ccccc0e74ff1a56da96e.jpg\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"396\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><img src=\"http://img.zhitongcaijing.com/images/contentformat/e2a42a869453a51bf63a352119f75e6a.jpg\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"402\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><b>6. Real estate: U.S. existing home contracted sales index rose year-on-year in March</b></p><p>The U.S. S&P/CS house price index rose for eight consecutive months in February. In February, the U.S. S&P/CS house price index rose by 11.9% year-on-year to 246.0, rising for eight consecutive months. The contracted sales index of existing homes in the United States in March was 23.3% year-on-year and 1.9% month-on-month.</p><p><img src=\"http://img.zhitongcaijing.com/images/contentformat/6ac3751240b8a02c34f4c66d93fb255b.jpg\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"398\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>Japan's new housing construction and construction orders rose sharply in March. In March, the construction of new houses in Japan started by 1.5% year-on-year and 18.1% month-on-month, and the number of construction orders in March was 12.5% year-on-year and 192.7% month-on-month, the highest increase in nearly a year.</p><p><img src=\"http://img.zhitongcaijing.com/images/contentformat/e961519800be12d5e185f10acff56a58.jpg\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"392\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>U.S. 5-year mortgage rates have fallen and 15-year, 30-year mortgage rates have risen. For the week ending April 29, 5-year mortgage rates fell 0.2 percentage points to 2.6%, while 15-year and 30-year mortgage rates rose to 2.3% and 3.0%, respectively. In the week ending April 23rd, the US MBA market index fell by 18.2 to 706.6, and the heat of the housing market dropped slightly.</p><p><img src=\"http://img.zhitongcaijing.com/images/contentformat/2eb2b206b830b79a11aed2265d986bec.jpg\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"395\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><b>7. Monetary policy and exchange rate: the US Dollar Index falls, gold prices are basically stable</b></p><p>This week, the Federal Reserve's interest rate meeting was held, Powell's speech was pigeon, the the US Dollar Index fell, and the gold price was basically stable. On April 28th, local time, the Federal Reserve announced the statement of the interest rate meeting. Powell said at the press conference after the meeting that it will still take some time to see substantial progress. Before that, the current scale of asset purchases will be maintained. It is not time to discuss Taper yet, and the the US Dollar Index continues to decline. As of April 29th, the US Dollar Index closed at 90.6140, down 0.7% from last week; The exchange rate of the euro and the pound against the US dollar (the exchange rate data of the pound as of the 28th) closed at 1.2129 and 1.3906 respectively, appreciating by 0.7% and depreciating by 0.2% respectively compared with last week; As the Bank of Canada led Taper, the Canadian dollar strengthened, closing at 1.2292, an appreciation of 1.7% from last week. This week, the average weekly price of gold in London was USD 1,774.8/oz, which was basically stable compared with last week, and the year-on-year increase decreased by 1.2pct to 3.6% compared with last week.</p><p><img src=\"http://img.zhitongcaijing.com/images/contentformat/c2e4e8d549f84a56f7d651806cc3a657.jpg\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"398\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><img src=\"http://img.zhitongcaijing.com/images/contentformat/09b461fbeb60aed3abf2e7ffd691b486.jpg\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"551\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>","source":"highlight_zhitongcaijin","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Is the GDP of the United States strong or weak in the first quarter?</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nIs the GDP of the United States strong or weak in the first quarter?\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">智通财经网</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-05-02 15:45</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><b>This article comes from \"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/000166\">Shen Wan Hongyuan</a>Macro \".</b></p><p>Abstract</p><p><b>1. Week's Viewpoint: Is the GDP of the United States strong or weak in the first quarter?</b></p><p><b>21Q1 U.S. GDP was 0.4% year-on-year, slightly below market expectations.</b>U.S. GDP in 21Q1 was actually 0.4% year-on-year, turning positive year-on-year for the first time since the pandemic, and 1.6% quarter-on-quarter. The main contributing factors were commodity consumption, service consumption and non-residential investment, which showed the rapid recovery of the US economy under the improvement of the epidemic situation and financial subsidies. However, the main drag items are the change of private inventory and imports. In fact, the GDP growth rate of the United States in the first quarter was slightly lower than the market expectation, indicating that the market lacked understanding of the slow production recovery caused by excessive financial subsidies in the United States, and the expectation of excessive optimism about the improvement of the epidemic situation.</p><p><b>Resident consumption: subsidies promote commodity consumption, and the service industry is repaired when the epidemic eases.</b>1) In 21Q1, U.S. personal consumption expenditure drove GDP by 1.1 percentage points year-on-year, a significant improvement of 3 percentage points compared with 20Q4. Commodity consumption is mainly driven by durable goods, while the improvement of service consumption on GDP is greater than that of durable goods consumption; 2) From the perspective of monthly high frequency, PCE in March was 8.5% year-on-year and 3.7% month-on-month, and it strengthened again after a slight drop in the vacuum period of direct subsidies in February. It shows the immediate stimulating effect of the subsidy payment of $1,400 in March on consumption, and the recovery of service consumption under the relaxation of prevention and control measures. However, judging from the intensity of service consumption recovery, it is actually slightly weaker than the overly optimistic expectation of overseas markets in February-March.</p><p><b>Investment: Equipment investment improved significantly, interest rates inhibited real estate investment, and inventory replenishment did not appear.</b>In 21Q1, domestic private investment drove GDP by 0.8 percentage points year-on-year, a slight improvement of 0.1 percentage points compared with the fourth quarter. 1) Improvement in non-residential investment shows that the U.S. production sector expects an improvement in the economic outlook; 2) The decline in the year-on-year contribution of private inventory changes to 21Q1 GDP is the manifestation of the tear of supply and demand in the US economy. The demand is strong and the production recovers slowly, which leads to the decline of inventory, which means that the strength of commodity prices in Q1 cannot be supported by the logic of strong industrial production and active inventory replenishment in the US; 3) The year-on-year contribution of residential investment to GDP remained basically stable, while the month-on-month growth rate was suppressed with the overall rise of US interest rate in the previous period. The follow-up is expected to continue to cool with the medium-term upward process of interest rates.</p><p><b>Government spending and net exports: Subsidies drive government spending to increase, and the widening gap between supply and demand leads to a high increase in imports.</b>The tear of supply and demand in the U.S. economy has led to the deepening of the drag of net exports on GDP. In 21Q1, net exports dragged down GDP by 2 percentage points year-on-year, and the degree of drag widened by 0.7 percentage points compared with the previous 20Q4. Government expenditure in 21Q1 increased GDP by 0.1 percentage point year-on-year, mainly due to the issuance of direct subsidy checks for residents by the U.S. government to the banking system and the cost of purchasing vaccines.</p><p><b>It is expected that the economic recovery of the United States will be at a high point in the second quarter, and we will pay attention to the follow-up progress of the epidemic.</b>We believe that the strength of the future economic recovery in the United States depends on the vaccination process and the spread of COVID-19. Under the assumption that the epidemic situation in the United States continues to ease and the service industry is gradually recovering, it is expected that the second quarter will be the high point of recovery of the United States economy. However, the tear between supply and demand caused by excessive subsidies will continue until September, and the strength of the recovery of the United States economy during the year may not be as strong as the market expectations. Personal consumption expenditure: It is expected that the first quarter will be the high point of commodity consumption, and the service industry consumption will continue to gradually recover with the easing of the epidemic. However, the spread of more contagious virus variants in the United States and overseas countries will also affect the recovery intensity of the subsequent service industry; Investment: Improvements in non-residential investments require attention to subsequent pandemic progress. Residential investment will decline with the gradual cooling of the real estate market; Private inventory movements may have to wait until the end of unemployment benefits in September to improve. Government spending and net exports: Government spending is expected to continue to contribute positively to GDP year-on-year until the fourth quarter. Net exports will return to normal levels as the supply-demand gap narrows later this year.</p><p><b>Global macro data</b></p><p><b>High Frequency Data This Week</b>: New orders for durable goods in the United States all rose year-on-year</p><p><b>Pandemic</b>: New confirmed cases in the U.S. declined.</p><p><b>Demand</b>: Japanese retail sales picked up sharply year-on-year.</p><p><b>Supply and Employment</b>: New orders for durable goods in the United States all rose year-on-year.</p><p><b>TRADE</b>: The imports and exports of the United States rose sharply year-on-year in March.</p><p><b>Inflation and Commodities</b>: Oil prices rose slightly.</p><p><b>REALTY</b>: The contracted sales index of existing homes in the United States rose in March.</p><p><b>Monetary Policy and Exchange Rates</b>: the US Dollar Index falls, gold prices stable.</p><p><b>Global Macro Calendar</b>: Watch US ISM Manufacturing PMI</p><p>text</p><p><b>1. Week's Viewpoint: Is the GDP of the United States strong or weak in the first quarter?</b></p><p><b>1.21Q1 U.S. GDP 0.4% YoY, slightly below market expectations</b></p><p>The GDP of the United States in 21Q1 was actually 0.4% year-on-year, turning positive year-on-year for the first time since the epidemic, and 1.6% month-on-month. The main contributing factors were commodity consumption, service consumption and non-residential investment, which showed a relatively rapid recovery of the US economy under the improvement of the epidemic situation and financial subsidies. The main drag items are private inventory changes and imports, and in fact, the GDP growth rate of the United States in the first quarter was slightly lower than the market expectation, indicating that the market has insufficient awareness of the slow production recovery caused by excessive financial subsidies in the United States, and its overly optimistic expectation of the improvement of the epidemic situation.</p><p><img src=\"http://img.zhitongcaijing.com/images/contentformat/867b3b31bf5a4410ca85884cf283ce1f.jpg\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"588\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><b>2. Resident consumption: subsidies promote commodity consumption, the epidemic eases and the service industry repairs</b></p><p>In 21Q1, financial subsidies of up to 2,000 USD/person stimulated commodity consumption; The easing of the pandemic promoted the recovery of service consumption, but it was slightly weaker than the optimistic expectation of overseas markets in the previous period. 1) From a quarterly perspective, the personal consumption expenditure of the United States in 21Q1 drove GDP by 1.1 percentage points year-on-year, a substantial improvement of 3 percentage points compared with 20Q4. It jumped from the biggest drag on GDP in the fourth quarter to the biggest contribution, showing that the first quarter had the stimulating effect of the subsidy of 600 USD in January and the subsidy of 1,400 USD issued in March on consumption, and the gradual release of service consumption under the easing of the epidemic. 2) From the perspective of monthly high frequency, PCE reached 8.5% year-on-year and 3.7% month-on-month in March, and strengthened again after a slight drop in the vacuum period of direct subsidies in February. Among them, the year-on-year growth rate of durable goods and service consumption increased again, reaching 43.3% and 4.8% respectively in March, while non-durable goods slowed down slightly (4.3%) year-on-year, showing that the subsidy payment of $1,400 in March had an immediate stimulating effect on consumption, and the recovery of service consumption under the relaxation of prevention and control measures. However, judging from the intensity of service consumption recovery, it is actually slightly weaker than the overly optimistic expectation of overseas markets in February-March.</p><p><img src=\"http://img.zhitongcaijing.com/images/contentformat/fb6a3cdada866cc05b11f3b44abb7b40.jpg\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"398\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>Commodity consumption and service consumption jointly drive the high increase of personal consumption expenditure. 1) Commodity consumption is mainly driven by durable goods. In 21Q1, commodity consumption increased by 3.2 percentage points to GDP, an improvement of 1.5 percentage points compared with 20Q4, mainly due to the high increase of durable goods under the fiscal stimulus in the first quarter. In 21Q1, the contribution of durable goods to GDP improved significantly by 1.3 percentage points compared with the fourth quarter, while the contribution of non-durable goods to GDP only improved slightly by 0.3 percentage points; 2) The improvement of service consumption on GDP is greater than that of durable goods consumption. In 21Q1, although service consumption still had a negative pull of-1.4% on GDP, it has significantly improved by 1.6 percentage points compared with the previous quarter, which is even more than that of durable goods consumption, showing that service consumption has greater flexibility to improve under the dual factors of financial subsidy + epidemic easing.</p><p><img src=\"http://img.zhitongcaijing.com/images/contentformat/e8b1b37f95a3c799e28a194bc63e56e7.jpg\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"399\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><b>3. Investment: Equipment investment improved significantly, interest rates inhibited real estate investment, and inventory replenishment did not appear</b></p><p>The effect of non-residential investment on GDP has greatly improved, and private inventory has turned into a drag. In 21Q1, domestic private investment drove GDP by 0.8 percentage points year-on-year, a slight improvement of 0.1 percentage points compared with the fourth quarter.</p><p>1) Improvement in non-residential investment shows that the U.S. production sector has improved its expectations for the economic outlook. The main contributor to the improvement in private investment was non-residential investment (0.6 percentage point improvement), mainly from equipment investment, indicating that manufacturing enterprises remain optimistic about the prospect of economic recovery.</p><p>2) The decline in the year-on-year contribution of private inventory changes to 21Q1 GDP is the manifestation of the tear of supply and demand in the US economy. Strong demand and slow production recovery lead to the decline of inventory, which means that the strength of commodity prices in Q1 cannot be supported by the logic of strong industrial production and active inventory replenishment in the US. The main drag on private investment was the movement of private inventories (0.4 percentage point drag).</p><p>3) The year-on-year contribution of residential investment to GDP remained basically stable, while the month-on-month growth rate was suppressed with the overall rise of US interest rate in the previous period. It is expected that the follow-up will continue to cool with the medium-term upward process of interest rates. In 21Q1, the pull of residential investment on GDP remained stable, but with the gradual increase of mortgage interest rates in the past 21 years, the U.S. real estate market has cooled down, and the expenditure on residential construction and sales of existing houses have slowed down. It is expected that the pull effect of subsequent residential investment on GDP will gradually decline.</p><p><img src=\"http://img.zhitongcaijing.com/images/contentformat/8831f8bd60fdfc9671df61b6e741faaa.jpg\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"393\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><b>4. Government spending and net exports: Subsidies boost government spending, and the widening gap between supply and demand leads to a high increase in imports</b></p><p>The tear of supply and demand in the U.S. economy has led to the deepening of the drag of net exports on GDP. In 21Q1, net exports dragged down GDP by 2 percentage points year-on-year, and the degree of drag widened by 0.7 percentage points compared with the previous 20Q4. 1) Exports were dragged down by 1 percentage point, but they have improved by 0.2 percentage points compared with the previous quarter, showing a slight recovery of industrial production in the United States, but the improvement of personal consumption expenditure by 3.0 percentage points is still dwarfed by comparison, which actually reflects the widening of supply and demand gap in 21Q1 under excessive financial subsidies in the United States; 2) In 21Q1, imports dragged down GDP by 1.0 percentage points year-on-year, and the degree of drag greatly expanded by 0.9 percentage points compared with the previous quarter. The direct consequence of the widening gap between supply and demand in the United States is the expansion of import scale.</p><p>Government expenditure in 21Q1 increased GDP by 0.1 percentage point year-on-year, mainly due to the issuance of direct subsidy checks for residents by the U.S. government to the banking system and the cost of purchasing vaccines.</p><p><img src=\"http://img.zhitongcaijing.com/images/contentformat/1e6d4ceb162a00ae93de51b3cf6bb71b.jpg\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"386\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><b>5. It is expected that the U.S. economic recovery will be at a high point in the second quarter, and pay attention to the follow-up progress of the epidemic</b></p><p>Looking ahead, we believe that the strength of future U.S. economic recovery depends on the vaccination process and the spread of COVID-19. Under the assumption that the epidemic situation in the United States continues to ease and the service industry is gradually recovering, it is expected that the second quarter will be the high point of recovery of the United States economy. However, the tear between supply and demand caused by excessive subsidies will continue until September, and the strength of the recovery of the United States economy during the year may not be as strong as the market expectations.</p><p>Personal consumption expenditure: 1) Although 21Q1 commodity consumption shows an extremely strong momentum, we expect the first quarter to be the high point of commodity consumption, and it will gradually decline with the subsidy ebb; 2) The consumption of the service industry will continue to recover gradually as the epidemic eases, but the global epidemic has rebounded since March, especially in European countries and emerging countries. At the same time, the spread of more contagious virus variants in the United States and overseas countries will also affect the recovery intensity of the subsequent service industry.</p><p>Investment: 1) The main driving force of the improvement of non-residential investment in 21Q1 is the expectation of economic improvement. From the current point of view, the global epidemic is the core factor determining the intensity of economic recovery, and it is necessary to pay attention to the follow-up epidemic progress; 2) Residential investment will decline with the gradual cooling of the real estate market; 3) The change of private inventory, that is, the intensity of inventory replenishment, will depend on whether the current situation of supply and demand tearing in the United States can be eased. From the current point of view, it will take until the unemployment subsidy ends in September before there will be a significant bridging trend at both ends of supply and demand in the United States, which will then drive inventory investment.</p><p>Government expenditure and net exports: 1) With the continuous payment of unemployment subsidies in the second and third quarters, government expenditure is expected to continue to make a positive contribution to GDP year-on-year before the fourth quarter, and if the U.S. Employment Plan or the American Family Plan can be implemented within the year, it will also boost the level of government expenditure; In terms of net exports, exports will depend on the progress of the recovery of industrial production in the United States. As mentioned above, they will not be boosted until the fourth quarter, while imports, on the contrary, will fall back to normal levels as the supply-demand gap narrows later this year.</p><p><img src=\"http://img.zhitongcaijing.com/images/contentformat/32e1b124c2e79173310a2a69f29f1ee7.jpg\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"547\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><b>2. Global macro data: New confirmed cases in the United States declined</b></p><p><b>1. Epidemic: New confirmed cases in the United States decline</b></p><p>New confirmed cases in the U.S. dropped this week. The number of newly confirmed cases in the United States dropped to more than 53,000 on average on 7 days. As of April 29th, the global COVID-19 epidemic has been diagnosed more than 150 million, with 3.14 million deaths and 120 million recoveries. This week (April 27th-April 30th), there were 220,000 and 9,000 newly confirmed cases in the United States and the United Kingdom respectively.</p><p>As of April 28, Israel has received the most COVID-19 vaccines per 100 people worldwide, reaching 121.1 shots per 100 people, 70.2 shots per 100 people in the United States and 70.9 shots per 100 people in the United Kingdom. As of April 28, Israel had the highest proportion of fully vaccinated people in the world, at 58.7%, while the United States and Britain had 29.3% and 20.7% respectively.</p><p><img src=\"http://img.zhitongcaijing.com/images/contentformat/887a942234cb8fe459a2f83e1d51371f.jpg\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"591\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><img src=\"http://img.zhitongcaijing.com/images/contentformat/62573bfd15fa133a1b4a5d4e236f878d.jpg\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"397\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><b>2. Demand: Japanese retail sales picked up sharply year-on-year</b></p><p>Both retail sales and wholesale sales in Japan rose sharply year-on-year. Japan's retail sales index in March was 5.3% year-on-year, of which retail textiles and apparel were 15.8% year-on-year, and the wholesale sales index in March was 1.0% year-on-year.</p><p><img src=\"http://img.zhitongcaijing.com/images/contentformat/a115423dbfa92a2b68fd1ddba7b7202c.jpg\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"432\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>South Korea's retail sales continued to grow year-on-year in March, and semi-durable goods consumption increased significantly. South Korea's retail sales in March increased by 3.5 percentage points to 13.5% year-on-year, of which the consumption of semi-durable goods grew the fastest, 35.5% year-on-year; Durable goods were 13.6% and non-durable goods were 6.5% year-on-year.</p><p><img src=\"http://img.zhitongcaijing.com/images/contentformat/660433692ab7c356ac6e92af5532c956.jpg\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"549\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><b>3. Supply and employment: New orders for durable goods in the United States all rose year-on-year</b></p><p>The inventory of durable goods in the United States increased, and the growth rate of new orders both increased year-on-year. U.S. durable goods inventories reached $431.84 billion in March, up 1.0% month-over-month and 1.7% year-over-year. New orders for durable goods in the United States rose 0.5% month-on-month in March and rose sharply by 25% year-on-year.</p><p><img src=\"http://img.zhitongcaijing.com/images/contentformat/00d167c28987b587b0353bdb22cabcb3.jpg\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"397\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>Japan's unemployment rate fell to 2.6% in March. Japan's unemployment rate fell 0.3 percentage points to 2.6% in March from the previous month. South Korea's industrial production index increased year-on-year, and the industry continued to rebound. South Korea's industrial production index rose 5.7% year-on-year and 0.8% month-on-month to 112.6 in March.</p><p><img src=\"http://img.zhitongcaijing.com/images/contentformat/3e518f69ea70eb9423bd2c4c0800a9d4.jpg\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"393\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>U.S. industrial materials production continues to rise. 1) As of the week of April 24th, the weekly crude steel output in the United States increased by 43.6% year-on-year, and the capacity utilization rate increased slightly by 0.4 percentage points from last week to 78.4%; 2) U.S. refinery operable capacity utilization rose 0.4 percentage points to 85.4% as of April 23.</p><p><img src=\"http://img.zhitongcaijing.com/images/contentformat/08378049f4011957a1ca13a61b5f7ee9.jpg\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"395\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>The number of initial claims for unemployment benefits in the United States fell slightly that week, and the number of continuing claims for unemployment benefits rose slightly. On the week of April 24th, the number of initial unemployment claims in the United States reached 553,000, down 13,000 from last week; In the week of April 17th, the number of people who continued to claim unemployment benefits reached 3.66 million, an increase of 9,000 from the previous month.</p><p><img src=\"http://img.zhitongcaijing.com/images/contentformat/50abaebb23322c65845134f36edf2eac.jpg\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"550\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><b>4. Trade: U.S. imports and exports both rose sharply year-on-year in March</b></p><p>U.S. imports and exports both rose sharply year-on-year in March. The growth rate of U.S. exports in March rose sharply by 16.5 percentage points from the previous month to 11.5%, while imports increased by 20.6% year-on-year. The U.S. goods trade balance in March was-$90.59 billion.</p><p><img src=\"http://img.zhitongcaijing.com/images/contentformat/b94fcaf0b73f26e0f7e86a9f8b746b80.jpg\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"549\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><b>5. Inflation and commodities: Oil prices edge up</b></p><p>EIA crude oil inventories rose by 9 million barrels in the week of April 28, and U.S. crude oil production fell slightly by 100,000 barrels per day to 10.9 million barrels per day. As of April 29th, the weekly average price of WTI crude oil rose to $63.2/barrel; The average weekly price of Brent oil rose to $66.6/barrel.</p><p><img src=\"http://img.zhitongcaijing.com/images/contentformat/2ea9504a69c4ccccc0e74ff1a56da96e.jpg\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"396\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><img src=\"http://img.zhitongcaijing.com/images/contentformat/e2a42a869453a51bf63a352119f75e6a.jpg\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"402\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><b>6. Real estate: U.S. existing home contracted sales index rose year-on-year in March</b></p><p>The U.S. S&P/CS house price index rose for eight consecutive months in February. In February, the U.S. S&P/CS house price index rose by 11.9% year-on-year to 246.0, rising for eight consecutive months. The contracted sales index of existing homes in the United States in March was 23.3% year-on-year and 1.9% month-on-month.</p><p><img src=\"http://img.zhitongcaijing.com/images/contentformat/6ac3751240b8a02c34f4c66d93fb255b.jpg\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"398\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>Japan's new housing construction and construction orders rose sharply in March. In March, the construction of new houses in Japan started by 1.5% year-on-year and 18.1% month-on-month, and the number of construction orders in March was 12.5% year-on-year and 192.7% month-on-month, the highest increase in nearly a year.</p><p><img src=\"http://img.zhitongcaijing.com/images/contentformat/e961519800be12d5e185f10acff56a58.jpg\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"392\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>U.S. 5-year mortgage rates have fallen and 15-year, 30-year mortgage rates have risen. For the week ending April 29, 5-year mortgage rates fell 0.2 percentage points to 2.6%, while 15-year and 30-year mortgage rates rose to 2.3% and 3.0%, respectively. In the week ending April 23rd, the US MBA market index fell by 18.2 to 706.6, and the heat of the housing market dropped slightly.</p><p><img src=\"http://img.zhitongcaijing.com/images/contentformat/2eb2b206b830b79a11aed2265d986bec.jpg\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"395\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><b>7. Monetary policy and exchange rate: the US Dollar Index falls, gold prices are basically stable</b></p><p>This week, the Federal Reserve's interest rate meeting was held, Powell's speech was pigeon, the the US Dollar Index fell, and the gold price was basically stable. On April 28th, local time, the Federal Reserve announced the statement of the interest rate meeting. Powell said at the press conference after the meeting that it will still take some time to see substantial progress. Before that, the current scale of asset purchases will be maintained. It is not time to discuss Taper yet, and the the US Dollar Index continues to decline. As of April 29th, the US Dollar Index closed at 90.6140, down 0.7% from last week; The exchange rate of the euro and the pound against the US dollar (the exchange rate data of the pound as of the 28th) closed at 1.2129 and 1.3906 respectively, appreciating by 0.7% and depreciating by 0.2% respectively compared with last week; As the Bank of Canada led Taper, the Canadian dollar strengthened, closing at 1.2292, an appreciation of 1.7% from last week. This week, the average weekly price of gold in London was USD 1,774.8/oz, which was basically stable compared with last week, and the year-on-year increase decreased by 1.2pct to 3.6% compared with last week.</p><p><img src=\"http://img.zhitongcaijing.com/images/contentformat/c2e4e8d549f84a56f7d651806cc3a657.jpg\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"398\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><img src=\"http://img.zhitongcaijing.com/images/contentformat/09b461fbeb60aed3abf2e7ffd691b486.jpg\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"551\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> source：<a href=\"http://www.zhitongcaijing.com/content/detail/466474.html\">智通财经网</a></p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://img.zhitongcaijing.com/image/20210501/20210501134714_46528.png?x-oss-process=image/format,jpg/quality,Q_80/resize,w_250","relate_stocks":{".DJI":"道琼斯"},"source_url":"http://www.zhitongcaijing.com/content/detail/466474.html","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/6ca2dcdccfa2217fb20a0351f4efe814","article_id":"2132567538","content_text":"本文来自“申万宏源宏观”。摘要一、周观点：美国一季度GDP究竟是偏强还是偏弱?21Q1美国GDP同比0.4%，略低于市场预期。美国21Q1  GDP实际同比0.4%，疫情以来首次同比转正，环比1.6%。主要贡献因素为商品消费、服务消费、非住宅投资，显示出疫情改善+财政补贴下美国经济快速复苏。但主要拖累项为私人存货变动及进口，且实际上，美国一季度GDP增速是小幅低于市场预期的，显示市场对美国过度财政补贴导致生产恢复缓慢的认识不足，以及对疫情改善过度乐观的预期。居民消费：补贴推动商品消费，疫情缓和服务业修复。1)21Q1美国个人消费支出拉动GDP同比1.1个百分点，较20Q4大幅改善3个百分点。商品消费主要为耐用品推动，而服务消费对GDP拉动的改善幅度大于耐用品消费;2)月度高频角度，3月PCE同比8.5%，环比3.7%，在2月直接补贴真空期小幅回落后再度走强。显示3月1400美金补贴发放对于消费立竿见影的刺激效果，以及防控措施放松下服务消费的恢复。但从服务消费恢复的强度来看，实际上略弱于2-3月海外市场的过度乐观预期。投资：设备投资改善显著，利率抑制地产投资，补库存并未出现。21Q1国内私人投资拉动GDP同比0.8个百分点，较4季度小幅改善0.1个百分点。1)非住宅投资改善显示美国生产部门对经济前景预期有所改善;2)私人存货变动对21Q1  GDP同比贡献的下降是美国经济供需撕裂的体现，需求旺盛而生产恢复缓慢，从而导致库存下降，这也就意味着Q1大宗商品价格的走强并不能得到美国工业生产强劲、主动补库存逻辑的支持;3)住宅投资对GDP同比贡献基本保持稳定，环比增速则随前期美国利率的整体抬升而受到抑制。后续预计将随着利率的中期上行过程而持续降温。政府支出和净出口：补贴推动政府支出增加，供需缺口拉大导致进口高增。美国经济供需撕裂导致净出口对GDP拖累程度再度加深。21Q1净出口拖累GDP同比2个百分点，拖累程度较上20Q4扩大0.7个百分点。政府支出21Q1对GDP同比拉动0.1个百分点，主要由于美国政府向银行体系发放针对居民的直接补贴支票以及购买疫苗费用。预计美国经济复苏2季度为高点，关注疫情后续进展。我们认为未来美国经济恢复的强度依赖于疫苗接种进程，以及新冠疫情的扩散情况。在美国疫情持续缓和、服务业渐进修复的假设下，预计2季度为美国经济恢复高点，但由于过度补贴导致的供需撕裂情况将持续到9月份，年内美国经济恢复的强度或将不会如市场预期一般强劲。个人消费支出：预计1季度是商品消费高点，服务业消费将继续随着疫情缓和而渐进式恢复，但美国本土及海外国家传染性更强的病毒变种的传播也将影响后续服务业恢复强度;投资：非住宅投资的改善需要关注后续疫情进展。住宅投资将随着地产市场的逐步降温而走低;私人库存变动或要等到9月失业补贴结束之后得以改善。政府支出和净出口：政府支出预计将在4季度前持续对GDP同比形成正贡献。净出口将随着今年后期供需缺口的收窄而回到正常水平。二、全球宏观数据本周高频数据：美国耐用品新订单同环比均上升疫情：美国新增确诊病例下降。需求：日本零售销售同比大幅回升。供给与就业：美国耐用品新订单同环比均上升。贸易：美国3月进出口同比均大幅上升。通胀和大宗商品：油价小幅上行。房地产：美3月成屋签约销售指数上升。货币政策和汇率：美元指数下跌，黄金价格稳定。全球宏观日历：关注美国ISM制造业PMI正文一、周观点：美国一季度GDP究竟是偏强还是偏弱?1.21Q1美国GDP同比0.4%，略低于市场预期美国21Q1GDP实际同比0.4%，疫情以来首次同比转正，环比1.6%。主要贡献因素为商品消费、服务消费、非住宅投资，显示出疫情改善+财政补贴下美国经济相对较快的复苏。主要拖累项为私人存货变动及进口，且实际上，美国一季度GDP增速是小幅低于市场预期的，显示市场对美国过度财政补贴导致生产恢复缓慢的认识不足，以及对疫情改善过度乐观的预期。2.居民消费：补贴推动商品消费，疫情缓和服务业修复21Q1高达2000美金/人的财政补贴拉动商品消费;疫情缓和推动服务消费恢复，但略弱于前期海外市场乐观预期。1)从季度角度看，21Q1美国个人消费支出拉动GDP同比1.1个百分点，较20Q4大幅改善3个百分点，从4季度对GDP最大的拖累项一跃转为最大的贡献项，显示一季度同时具备1月600美金补贴以及3月开始发放的1400美金补贴对消费的刺激效果，以及疫情缓和下服务消费的渐次释放。2)而从月度高频角度，3月PCE同比达到8.5%，环比3.7%，在2月直接补贴真空期小幅回落后再度走强。其中，耐用品、服务消费同比增速再度提升，3月分别达到43.3%和4.8%，而非耐用品同比略有放缓(4.3%)，显示3月1400美金补贴发放对于消费立竿见影的刺激效果，以及防控措施放松下服务消费的恢复。但从服务消费恢复的强度来看，实际上略弱于2-3月海外市场的过度乐观预期。商品消费、服务消费共同驱动个人消费支出高增。1)商品消费主要为耐用品推动。21Q1商品消费对GDP拉动3.2个百分点，较20Q4改善1.5个百分点，主要归功于耐用品在一季度财政刺激下再度高增，21Q1耐用品对GDP贡献度较4季度大幅改善1.3个百分点，而非耐用品对GDP贡献度仅小幅改善0.3个百分点;2)服务消费对GDP拉动效果的改善幅度大于耐用品消费。21Q1服务消费对GDP虽然仍为-1.4%的负拉动，但已较上季度大幅改善1.6个百分点，改善幅度更甚于耐用品消费，显示出服务消费在财政补贴+疫情缓和双重因素下改善的弹性更大。3.投资：设备投资改善显著，利率抑制地产投资，补库存并未出现非住宅投资对GDP拉动效果大幅改善，私人存货转为拖累。21Q1国内私人投资拉动GDP同比0.8个百分点，较4季度小幅改善0.1个百分点。1)非住宅投资改善显示美国生产部门对经济前景预期有所改善。私人投资改善的主要贡献因素为非住宅投资(改善0.6个百分点)，其中主要来自于设备投资，显示制造业企业对经济恢复前景保持乐观。2)私人存货变动对21Q1  GDP同比贡献的下降是美国经济供需撕裂的体现，需求旺盛而生产恢复缓慢，从而导致库存下降，这也就意味着Q1大宗商品价格的走强并不能得到美国工业生产强劲、主动补库存逻辑的支持。拖累私人投资的主要因素为私人存货变动(拖累0.4个百分点)。3)住宅投资对GDP同比贡献基本保持稳定，环比增速则随前期美国利率的整体抬升而受到抑制。后续预计将随着利率的中期上行过程而持续降温。21Q1住宅投资对GDP的拉动保持稳定，但随着21年以来抵押贷款利率的逐步上行，美国房地产市场已经有所降温，住宅营建支出、成屋销售已经有所放缓，预计后续住宅投资对GDP的拉动效果将逐步下降。4.政府支出和净出口：补贴推动政府支出增加，供需缺口拉大导致进口高增美国经济供需撕裂导致净出口对GDP拖累程度再度加深。21Q1净出口拖累GDP同比2个百分点，拖累程度较上20Q4扩大0.7个百分点。1)出口拖累1个百分点，但已较上个季度改善0.2个百分点，显示美国工业生产的小幅恢复，但相比个人消费支出3.0个百分点的改善幅度仍然相形见绌，实际体现的是美国过度财政补贴下21Q1供需缺口的拉大;2)而进口在21Q1拖累GDP同比1.0个百分点，拖累程度较上季度大幅扩大0.9个百分点，美国供需缺口拉大的直接后果便是进口规模的扩大。政府支出21Q1对GDP同比拉动0.1个百分点，主要由于美国政府向银行体系发放针对居民的直接补贴支票以及购买疫苗费用。5.预计美国经济复苏2季度为高点，关注疫情后续进展展望未来，我们认为未来美国经济恢复的强度依赖于疫苗接种进程，以及新冠疫情的扩散情况。在美国疫情持续缓和、服务业渐进修复的假设下，预计2季度为美国经济恢复高点，但由于过度补贴导致的供需撕裂情况将持续到9月份，年内美国经济恢复的强度或将不会如市场预期一般强劲。个人消费支出：1)虽然21Q1商品消费显示出极为强劲的势头，但我们预计1季度已经是商品消费高点，后续将随着补贴退潮而逐步回落;2)服务业消费将继续随着疫情缓和而渐进式恢复，但3月以来全球疫情有所反弹，特别是在欧洲国家以及新兴国家，同时美国本土及海外国家传染性更强的病毒变种的传播也将影响后续服务业恢复强度。投资：1)21Q1非住宅投资的改善主要驱动力为经济向好预期，而从当前时点来看，全球疫情是决定经济恢复强度的核心因素，需要关注后续疫情进展;2)住宅投资将随着地产市场的逐步降温而走低;3)私人库存变动，即补库存的力度将依赖于美国供需撕裂的现状是否能够缓和，从当前来看，或要等到9月失业补贴结束之后，美国供需两端才能出现显著的弥合趋势，进而带动库存投资。政府支出和净出口：1)随着失业补贴在2、3季度的持续发放，政府支出预计将在4季度前持续对GDP同比形成正贡献，而如果美国就业计划或美国家庭计划能够在年内落地，也将提振政府支出水平;净出口方面，出口将依赖于美国工业生产恢复的进度，如上文所说，或要到4季度才能得到提振，进口则恰恰相反，将随着今年后期供需缺口的收窄而回落到正常水平。二、全球宏观数据：美国新增确诊病例下降1.疫情：美国新增确诊病例下降本周美国新增确诊病例下降。美国新增确诊7日平均下降至5.3万人以上。截止4月29日，全球新冠疫情累计确诊超过1.5亿，累计死亡病例314万人，累计康复病例1.2亿人。本周四天(4月27日-4月30日)美国、英国分别新增确诊病例22万人和0.9万人。截止4月28日，全球范围内平均每百人接种新冠疫苗最多的是以色列，达每百人121.1针，美国每百人70.2针，英国每百人70.9针。截止4月28日，全球范围内完全接种疫苗的人占人口比例最高的是以色列，达58.7%，美国、英国分别为29.3%、20.7%。2.需求：日本零售销售同比大幅回升日本零售销售和批发销售同比均大幅上行。日本3月零售销售指数同比5.3%，其中零售中纺织服装同比15.8%，3月批发销售指数同比1.0%。韩国3月零售销售同比持续增长，半耐用品消费大幅增长。韩国3月零售销售同比较上月上升3.5个百分点至13.5%，其中半耐用品消费增速最快，同比35.5%;耐用品同比13.6%，非耐用品同比6.5%。3.供给与就业：美国耐用品新订单同环比均上升美国耐用品库存上升，新订单增速同环比均上升。3月美国耐用品库存达4318.4亿美元，环比上升1.0%，同比增长1.7%。美国3月耐用品新订单环比上升0.5%，同比大幅上升25%。日本3月失业率下降至2.6%。3月日本失业率较上月下降0.3个百分点至2.6%。韩国工业生产指数同环比均上升，工业持续回升。韩国3月工业生产指数同比上升5.7%，环比上升0.8%至112.6。美国工业材料生产持续上升。1)截止4月24日当周，美国周度粗钢产量同比上升43.6%，产能利用率较上周小幅上升0.4个百分点至78.4%;2)截止4月23日，美国炼油厂可运营能力利用率上升0.4个百分点至85.4%。美国当周初请失业金人数小幅下降，持续申领失业金人数小幅上升。4月24日当周美国初请失业金人数达55.3万人，环比上周下降1.3万人;4月17日当周持续申领失业金人数达366万人，环比上升0.9万人。4.贸易：美国3月进出口同比均大幅上升美国3月进出口同比均大幅上升。美国3月出口增速较上月大幅上升16.5个百分点至11.5%，进口同比20.6%。美国3月份商品贸易差额为-905.9亿美元。5.通胀和大宗商品：油价小幅上行4月28日当周EIA原油库存上升900万桶，美国原油产量小幅下降10万桶/日至1090万桶/日。截止4月29日，WTI原油周均价上升至63.2美元/桶;布油周均价上升至66.6美元/桶。6.房地产：美国3月成屋签约销售指数同比上升美国2月标普/CS房价指数连续8个月上涨。2月美国标普/CS房价指数同比上升11.9%至246.0，连续8个月上涨。美国3月成屋签约销售指数同比大幅23.3%，环比1.9%。日本3月新屋开工、营建订单大幅上行。日本3月新屋开工同比1.5%，环比18.1%，3月营建订单数同比12.5%，环比192.7%，涨幅达到近一年最高。美国5年期抵押贷款利率下降，15年期、30年期抵押贷款利率上升。截止4月29日当周，5年期抵押贷款利率下降0.2个百分点至2.6%，15年期、30年期抵押贷款利率分别上升至2.3%和3.0%。截止4月23日当周，美国MBA市场指数下降18.2至706.6，房市热度小幅回落。7.货币政策和汇率：美元指数下跌，黄金价格基本稳定本周美联储议息会议召开，鲍威尔发言偏鸽，美元指数下跌，黄金价格基本稳定。当地时间4月28日，美联储公布议息会议声明，鲍威尔在会后新闻发布会上表示看到实质性进展仍需一些时间，在此之前会维持当前的资产购买规模，现在还未到讨论Taper的时间，美元指数持续下行。截至4月29日，美元指数报收90.6140，较上周下行0.7%;欧元、英镑兑美元汇率(英镑汇率数据截至28日)分别报收1.2129、1.3906，分别较上周升值0.7%、贬值0.2%;由于加拿大央行率先Taper，加元走强，报收1.2292，较上周升值1.7%。本周伦敦金周均价1774.8美元/盎司，较上周基本稳定，同比涨幅较上周下行1.2pct至3.6%。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"UBmain":0.9,"ZFmain":0.9,"ZNmain":0.9,".DJI":0.9,"ZBmain":0.9,"ZTmain":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1174,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":101397235,"gmtCreate":1619842968227,"gmtModify":1704335673823,"author":{"id":"3536928846214760","authorId":"3536928846214760","name":"東海吉龍","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0ef8466588cf515f97a20c636e2be8a0","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3536928846214760","idStr":"3536928846214760"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"666","listText":"666","text":"666","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/101397235","repostId":"2131557638","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"2131557638","kind":"highlight","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"中国最具影响力的财经新闻媒体《财经》携手道琼斯媒体集团，引入百年历史的《巴伦》（Barron's）独家内容，打造涵盖全球金融信息、市场动态、行业分析、公司研究及理财顾问评估的全球投资平台。","home_visible":1,"media_name":"Barrons巴伦","id":"1063202233","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/dd0fd02e1b0644cdbe57505e702dacab"},"pubTimestamp":1619837108,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/2131557638?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2021-05-01 10:45","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"7 Reasons Why Value Stocks Outperform the Market Isn't Over","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2131557638","media":"Barrons巴伦","summary":"过去几周，价值股跑赢成长股的势头陷入停滞。美国银行策略师认为，价值股可能再次跑赢成长股，主要有以下7个原因。-过去价值股的跑赢行情会持续33个月，而近期出现的跑赢行情才刚刚过了七个月。在目前的分化程度下，价值股的涨幅往往会超过成长股。通常情况下，当价值股跑赢成长股时，幅度往往会达到60个百分点，但是目前价值股跑赢幅度仅为20个百分点。","content":"<p>Some investors remain on the fence on value stocks, but value stocks will soon return to a new round of pick-up momentum. Momentum for value stocks to outperform growth stocks has stalled over the past few weeks. But<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BAC\">Bank of America</a>(Bank of America) believes that will soon change for a number of reasons.</p><p>Value stocks are more sensitive to changes in economic situation than growth stocks. Therefore, when the rising momentum of Treasury Bond yield in the United States slows down, the outperformance momentum of value stocks also stagnates. This is because when the economy turns around, the inflation rate will rise, which will be reflected by the rise of long-term yield, and the improvement of the economy is beneficial to the profitability of value stocks.</p><p>And when the long-term yield falls, the valuation of growth stocks will rise. This is because most of the profits of growth stocks can only be realized in the future. When the long-term yield falls, the value of future profits will rise. The 10-year U.S. Treasury Bond yield has dropped from 1.73% to 1.57% since mid-March, while the Russell 1000 Value Stock Index rose 2.5% over the same period, well below the 7.3% increase in the Russell 1000 Growth Stock Index.</p><p>Bank of America strategists believe that value stocks may outperform growth stocks again for the following seven main reasons.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/bd0250cad5be414685082cf4dfad68ab\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"720\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>-Value stocks are still cheap. Compared to growth stocks, the average forward P/E of the Russell 1000 Value Stock Index components remains below historical levels.</p><p>-In the past, value stocks outperformed for 33 months, while the recent outperformance has only passed seven months.</p><p>-Compared with historical levels, the valuation of value stocks and growth stocks in the S&P 500 index is very different, and the number of individual stocks involved is also greater. At the current level of differentiation, value stocks tend to outpace growth stocks.</p><p>-Value stocks still have room to outperform. Typically, when value stocks outperform growth stocks, the margin tends to reach 60 percentage points, but currently value stocks are outperforming by only 20 percentage points.</p><p>-Actively managed funds usually increase their holdings of value stocks when they outperform, but at present, the weight of value stocks in such funds is still relatively low. Energy and finance, two important value sectors, are generally weighted the same in active funds as they are in index funds, but they are also currently weighted less in active funds.</p><p>-Profits for S&P 500 components are still accelerating, suggesting a potential rise in stock prices. Profits for S&P 500 components are expected to rise 24% in the first quarter and 28% for the full year, according to FactSet. To be sure, some of the expectations for profit growth are already in value stocks, but there may be further share price gains to follow.</p><p>-Finally, economic growth is expected to accelerate in the middle of this year as the economy restarts. That means the U.S. is likely to be in the middle of the economic cycle right now, Bank of America said. While historical experience shows that value stocks tend to outperform growth stocks in the middle of a cycle.</p><p>Some investors remain on the fence on value stocks as the pace of the economic recovery picks up, but value stocks will soon return to a new round of pick-up momentum.</p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>7 Reasons Why Value Stocks Outperform the Market Isn't Over</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n7 Reasons Why Value Stocks Outperform the Market Isn't Over\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/1063202233\">\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/dd0fd02e1b0644cdbe57505e702dacab);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">Barrons巴伦 </p>\n<p class=\"h-time smaller\">2021-05-01 10:45</p>\n</div>\n</a>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>Some investors remain on the fence on value stocks, but value stocks will soon return to a new round of pick-up momentum. Momentum for value stocks to outperform growth stocks has stalled over the past few weeks. But<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BAC\">Bank of America</a>(Bank of America) believes that will soon change for a number of reasons.</p><p>Value stocks are more sensitive to changes in economic situation than growth stocks. Therefore, when the rising momentum of Treasury Bond yield in the United States slows down, the outperformance momentum of value stocks also stagnates. This is because when the economy turns around, the inflation rate will rise, which will be reflected by the rise of long-term yield, and the improvement of the economy is beneficial to the profitability of value stocks.</p><p>And when the long-term yield falls, the valuation of growth stocks will rise. This is because most of the profits of growth stocks can only be realized in the future. When the long-term yield falls, the value of future profits will rise. The 10-year U.S. Treasury Bond yield has dropped from 1.73% to 1.57% since mid-March, while the Russell 1000 Value Stock Index rose 2.5% over the same period, well below the 7.3% increase in the Russell 1000 Growth Stock Index.</p><p>Bank of America strategists believe that value stocks may outperform growth stocks again for the following seven main reasons.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/bd0250cad5be414685082cf4dfad68ab\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"720\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>-Value stocks are still cheap. Compared to growth stocks, the average forward P/E of the Russell 1000 Value Stock Index components remains below historical levels.</p><p>-In the past, value stocks outperformed for 33 months, while the recent outperformance has only passed seven months.</p><p>-Compared with historical levels, the valuation of value stocks and growth stocks in the S&P 500 index is very different, and the number of individual stocks involved is also greater. At the current level of differentiation, value stocks tend to outpace growth stocks.</p><p>-Value stocks still have room to outperform. Typically, when value stocks outperform growth stocks, the margin tends to reach 60 percentage points, but currently value stocks are outperforming by only 20 percentage points.</p><p>-Actively managed funds usually increase their holdings of value stocks when they outperform, but at present, the weight of value stocks in such funds is still relatively low. Energy and finance, two important value sectors, are generally weighted the same in active funds as they are in index funds, but they are also currently weighted less in active funds.</p><p>-Profits for S&P 500 components are still accelerating, suggesting a potential rise in stock prices. Profits for S&P 500 components are expected to rise 24% in the first quarter and 28% for the full year, according to FactSet. To be sure, some of the expectations for profit growth are already in value stocks, but there may be further share price gains to follow.</p><p>-Finally, economic growth is expected to accelerate in the middle of this year as the economy restarts. That means the U.S. is likely to be in the middle of the economic cycle right now, Bank of America said. While historical experience shows that value stocks tend to outperform growth stocks in the middle of a cycle.</p><p>Some investors remain on the fence on value stocks as the pace of the economic recovery picks up, but value stocks will soon return to a new round of pick-up momentum.</p>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c10b319311303e929760f86229735277","relate_stocks":{".SPX":"S&P 500 Index",".DJI":"道琼斯",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite"},"is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2131557638","content_text":"一些投资者对价值股仍持观望态度，但价值股很快就会重新迎来新一轮回升势头。\n\n过去几周，价值股跑赢成长股的势头陷入停滞。但美国银行（Bank of America）认为，出于很多原因，这种情况很快会发生变化。\n价值股对经济形势变化的敏感程度比成长股高，因此当美国国债收益率上升势头放缓时，价值股的跑赢势头也陷入了停滞，这是由于而当经济迎来转机时，通胀率会上升，这会通过长期收益率的上升反映出来，而经济转好对价值股的盈利能力构成利好。\n而当长期收益率下降时，成长股的估值会上升，这是由于成长股大部分利润只能在未来实现，当长期收益率下降时，未来利润的价值就会上升。10年期美国国债收益率自3月中旬以来已从1.73%降至1.57%，而罗素1000价值股指数同期涨幅为2.5%，远低于罗素1000成长股指数7.3%的涨幅。\n美国银行策略师认为，价值股可能再次跑赢成长股，主要有以下7个原因。\n\n-价值股仍然很便宜。和成长股相比，罗素1000价值股指数成分股的平均远期市盈率仍低于历史水平。\n-过去价值股的跑赢行情会持续33个月，而近期出现的跑赢行情才刚刚过了七个月。\n-和历史水平相比，标普500指数中的价值股和成长股的估值分化非常大，涉及的个股数量也更多。在目前的分化程度下，价值股的涨幅往往会超过成长股。\n-价值股还有跑赢空间。通常情况下，当价值股跑赢成长股时，幅度往往会达到60个百分点，但是目前价值股跑赢幅度仅为20个百分点。\n-主动管理型基金在价值股跑赢时通常会增持价值股，但是目前来看，价值股在这类基金中的权重还比较低。能源和金融这两个重要的价值板块在主动型基金中的权重一般与在指数基金中的权重相同，但目前在主动型基金中的权重也较低。\n-标普500指数成分股的利润仍在加速增长，这表明股价有可能上涨。根据FactSet的数据，预计第一季度标普500指数成分股利润增长24%，全年利润增长28%。可以确定的是，利润增长的部分预期已经体现在价值股中，但接下来股价可能还会进一步上涨。\n-最后，随着经济重启，预计今年年中经济增长将会提速。美国银行表示，这意味着美国目前可能处于经济周期的中期阶段。而历史经验表明，在周期中期，价值股的表现往往优于成长股。\n随着经济复苏步伐的加快，一些投资者对价值股仍持观望态度，但价值股很快就会重新迎来新一轮回升势头。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{".IXIC":0.9,".SPX":0.9,".DJI":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1411,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":109247446,"gmtCreate":1619702877185,"gmtModify":1704728271453,"author":{"id":"3536928846214760","authorId":"3536928846214760","name":"東海吉龍","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0ef8466588cf515f97a20c636e2be8a0","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3536928846214760","idStr":"3536928846214760"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"666","listText":"666","text":"666","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/109247446","repostId":"1164804182","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1164804182","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1619698615,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1164804182?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2021-04-29 20:16","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"What chess is Biden playing behind \"robbing the rich and giving the poor\" for the infrastructure plan","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1164804182","media":"川阅全球宏观","summary":"第二弹具有缩减贫富差距、提高美国家庭福祉的特殊目标。","content":"<p>Author: Duan Meng Tao Chuan</p><p>On April 28th, Eastern Time, Biden delivered his first congressional speech since taking office, and announced the second \"American Family Plan\" of $1.8 trillion in infrastructure at the joint meeting of the two houses:<b>Investing about $1 trillion in 10 years + about $800 billion in tax cuts for families and workers, with human infrastructure investment at its core. All the infrastructure plans totaling about 4 trillion yuan have been revealed</b>。 Biden offered to raise taxes on the wealthy to fund the second infrastructure bomb,<b>The series of tax reforms for the wealthy (Table 1) is expected to raise about $1.5 trillion over a decade and ultimately allow for fewer tax loopholes for the wealthy and more opportunities for low-and middle-income Americans.</b></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3bfc2e9170b3d9ef1b4b6e31e2c16497\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"539\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><b>What is the difference between the second and first bombs of Biden's infrastructure?</b>The second bomb has the special goal of narrowing the gap between rich and poor and improving the well-being of American families. The first one focuses on improving the core competitiveness of the United States, which is of great strategic significance, mainly involving traditional infrastructure, research and development, green energy and other fields, while the second one focuses on education and social security, including childcare, paid leave, medical insurance, etc.</p><p><b>Why do you choose to increase capital gains taxes on the rich at this time?</b></p><p><b>In recent years, the tax difference between wage income and capital gains has been at a high of 17%, and a large number of wealthy people have transferred their income to capital gains to avoid taxes.</b>Diess, director of the White House National Economic Council, pointed out that since 2000, the tax rate for wealthy people earning> $60 million a year was only about 20 percent, lower than that of many middle-class people. About 70% of the average citizen's income comes from wages, while only about 30% of the wealthy earn ≥ $1 million a year, and the Top 1% of the wealthy account for 75% of the total long-term capital gains declarations (Figure 1). Increasing capital gains taxes on the wealthy to finance the \"American Family Plan\" can be described as robbing the rich and giving the poor.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/af037fe8e9152d998a716faadfddfa3e\" tg-width=\"999\" tg-height=\"698\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><b>To take history as a guide, President Reagan raised capital gains taxes to limit tax avoidance by the rich:</b>In the 1980s, the low capital gains tax rate made the rich invest heavily, generating interest and other deductions to reduce tax burden and reap long-term capital gains. Reagan's 1986 tax reform bill raised the capital gains tax rate and lowered the wage income tax rate, capping both at 28% (Figure 2), eliminating the tax rate difference and making the tax avoidance scheme unprofitable. This is consistent with the intention of the Biden administration.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/dca46699479f6ce424d8456fa659ea68\" tg-width=\"981\" tg-height=\"596\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><b>How feasible is it to increase capital gains taxes on the wealthy? It is a bipartisan consensus and approved by the polls.</b></p><p>Mr. Diess recently said that the government had bipartisan support for raising funds and investing with higher returns by taxing the wealthy. According to Gallup poll data, more than 60% of Americans surveyed believe that the tax rate of the rich is too low (Figure 3), which shows that tax increases for the rich are recognized by the American public.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/51a26561f8d403091469f71d0729db6b\" tg-width=\"1002\" tg-height=\"611\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><b>Will Biden Infrastructure Plan Use Budget Reconciliation Process?</b>Yes. In anticipation of a clearer legislative strategy for the infrastructure scheme next month, we prefer to think that the infrastructure scheme will be adopted as a large scheme using a reconciliation process.</p><p><b>Impact of Biden's infrastructure plan on the economy?</b></p><p><b>There is no evidence that it will significantly affect long-term investments.</b>Corporate investment is mainly affected by the economic cycle, especially the aggregate market demand, and has little elasticity to tax rate. The Trump tax reform, which lowered the corporate tax rate from 35% to 21%, has not been effective in stimulating investment (Figure 4). In terms of capital gains tax, Diess said that most of the long-term investments come from tax-insensitive entities such as pension funds and sovereign wealth funds, so capital gains tax rates and investments do not show a clear correlation (Figure 5).</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f037481bdf356e2bf8d4f608286bbc25\" tg-width=\"1027\" tg-height=\"601\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4fd67ef94086e0cea357dd154629c8d2\" tg-width=\"762\" tg-height=\"693\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><b>The \"American Jobs Plan\" is expected to drive GDP by about 2% in the past decade.</b>According to the research of the Federal Reserve, the fiscal multiplier of infrastructure investment can be as high as x2. It is estimated that the \"American Employment Plan\" will drive the real GDP growth rate of the United States by about 0.2% every year on average in the next 10 years. In view of the pre-position of most investments, it will drive the GDP growth rate even more in the initial stage. In terms of debt, according to the latest calculation of Wharton Business School, the U.S. government debt will increase by 1.7% by 2031, but will decrease by 6.4% by 2050.</p><p><b>Risk warning:</b>The economy is in recession again as Covid virus mutation renders vaccines ineffective</p>","source":"lsy1582083733592","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>What chess is Biden playing behind \"robbing the rich and giving the poor\" for the infrastructure plan</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nWhat chess is Biden playing behind \"robbing the rich and giving the poor\" for the infrastructure plan\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">川阅全球宏观</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-04-29 20:16</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>Author: Duan Meng Tao Chuan</p><p>On April 28th, Eastern Time, Biden delivered his first congressional speech since taking office, and announced the second \"American Family Plan\" of $1.8 trillion in infrastructure at the joint meeting of the two houses:<b>Investing about $1 trillion in 10 years + about $800 billion in tax cuts for families and workers, with human infrastructure investment at its core. All the infrastructure plans totaling about 4 trillion yuan have been revealed</b>。 Biden offered to raise taxes on the wealthy to fund the second infrastructure bomb,<b>The series of tax reforms for the wealthy (Table 1) is expected to raise about $1.5 trillion over a decade and ultimately allow for fewer tax loopholes for the wealthy and more opportunities for low-and middle-income Americans.</b></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3bfc2e9170b3d9ef1b4b6e31e2c16497\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"539\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><b>What is the difference between the second and first bombs of Biden's infrastructure?</b>The second bomb has the special goal of narrowing the gap between rich and poor and improving the well-being of American families. The first one focuses on improving the core competitiveness of the United States, which is of great strategic significance, mainly involving traditional infrastructure, research and development, green energy and other fields, while the second one focuses on education and social security, including childcare, paid leave, medical insurance, etc.</p><p><b>Why do you choose to increase capital gains taxes on the rich at this time?</b></p><p><b>In recent years, the tax difference between wage income and capital gains has been at a high of 17%, and a large number of wealthy people have transferred their income to capital gains to avoid taxes.</b>Diess, director of the White House National Economic Council, pointed out that since 2000, the tax rate for wealthy people earning> $60 million a year was only about 20 percent, lower than that of many middle-class people. About 70% of the average citizen's income comes from wages, while only about 30% of the wealthy earn ≥ $1 million a year, and the Top 1% of the wealthy account for 75% of the total long-term capital gains declarations (Figure 1). Increasing capital gains taxes on the wealthy to finance the \"American Family Plan\" can be described as robbing the rich and giving the poor.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/af037fe8e9152d998a716faadfddfa3e\" tg-width=\"999\" tg-height=\"698\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><b>To take history as a guide, President Reagan raised capital gains taxes to limit tax avoidance by the rich:</b>In the 1980s, the low capital gains tax rate made the rich invest heavily, generating interest and other deductions to reduce tax burden and reap long-term capital gains. Reagan's 1986 tax reform bill raised the capital gains tax rate and lowered the wage income tax rate, capping both at 28% (Figure 2), eliminating the tax rate difference and making the tax avoidance scheme unprofitable. This is consistent with the intention of the Biden administration.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/dca46699479f6ce424d8456fa659ea68\" tg-width=\"981\" tg-height=\"596\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><b>How feasible is it to increase capital gains taxes on the wealthy? It is a bipartisan consensus and approved by the polls.</b></p><p>Mr. Diess recently said that the government had bipartisan support for raising funds and investing with higher returns by taxing the wealthy. According to Gallup poll data, more than 60% of Americans surveyed believe that the tax rate of the rich is too low (Figure 3), which shows that tax increases for the rich are recognized by the American public.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/51a26561f8d403091469f71d0729db6b\" tg-width=\"1002\" tg-height=\"611\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><b>Will Biden Infrastructure Plan Use Budget Reconciliation Process?</b>Yes. In anticipation of a clearer legislative strategy for the infrastructure scheme next month, we prefer to think that the infrastructure scheme will be adopted as a large scheme using a reconciliation process.</p><p><b>Impact of Biden's infrastructure plan on the economy?</b></p><p><b>There is no evidence that it will significantly affect long-term investments.</b>Corporate investment is mainly affected by the economic cycle, especially the aggregate market demand, and has little elasticity to tax rate. The Trump tax reform, which lowered the corporate tax rate from 35% to 21%, has not been effective in stimulating investment (Figure 4). In terms of capital gains tax, Diess said that most of the long-term investments come from tax-insensitive entities such as pension funds and sovereign wealth funds, so capital gains tax rates and investments do not show a clear correlation (Figure 5).</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f037481bdf356e2bf8d4f608286bbc25\" tg-width=\"1027\" tg-height=\"601\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4fd67ef94086e0cea357dd154629c8d2\" tg-width=\"762\" tg-height=\"693\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><b>The \"American Jobs Plan\" is expected to drive GDP by about 2% in the past decade.</b>According to the research of the Federal Reserve, the fiscal multiplier of infrastructure investment can be as high as x2. It is estimated that the \"American Employment Plan\" will drive the real GDP growth rate of the United States by about 0.2% every year on average in the next 10 years. In view of the pre-position of most investments, it will drive the GDP growth rate even more in the initial stage. In terms of debt, according to the latest calculation of Wharton Business School, the U.S. government debt will increase by 1.7% by 2031, but will decrease by 6.4% by 2050.</p><p><b>Risk warning:</b>The economy is in recession again as Covid virus mutation renders vaccines ineffective</p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> source：<a href=\"https://www.gelonghui.com/p/462955\">川阅全球宏观</a></p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b723feb7135a01ca53f3c6edab4b9665","relate_stocks":{".DJI":"道琼斯"},"source_url":"https://www.gelonghui.com/p/462955","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1164804182","content_text":"作者：段萌 陶川美国东部时间4月28日，拜登发表上任以来首次国会演说，在两院联席会议上公布1.8万亿美元的基建第二弹“美国家庭计划”：10年内投资约1万亿美元+家庭和工人约8000亿美元的减税额，核心为人力基础设施投资。总计约4万亿的基建计划至此全部揭晓。拜登提出对富人增税来为基建第二弹筹资，针对富人的系列税收改革（表1）预计将在十年内筹集约1.5万亿美元，并最终使得富人税收漏洞减少、中低收入美国人的机会增加。拜登基建第二弹和第一弹的差别是什么？第二弹具有缩减贫富差距、提高美国家庭福祉的特殊目标。第一弹着重于提高美国核心竞争力，极具战略意义，主要涉及传统基建、研发、绿色能源等领域，而第二弹着重于教育和社会保障，包括儿童保育、带薪假、医保等。为什么选择此时向富人增收资本利得税？近年来，工资收入与资本利得的税率差处在17%的高位，大量富人将收入转移至资本利得来避税。白宫国家经济委员会主任迪斯指出，2000年来，年收入>6000万美元的富人，税率仅约20%，低于许多中产阶级。普通民众约70%的收入来自工资，而年收入≥100万美元的富人仅约30%，收入Top 1%的富人占比长期资本利得申报总额的75%（图1）。对富人增收资本利得税来为“美国家庭计划”融资，可谓劫富济贫。以史为鉴，里根总统曾增收资本利得税以限制富人避税：80年代，低资本利得税率使得富人通过大量投资，产生利息等抵扣项以减少税负，收获长期资本利得。里根1986年税改法案提高资本利得税率、降低工资收入税率、将二者上限均设为28%（图2），消除税率差，使避税计划无利可图。这与拜登政府的初衷一致。对富人增收资本利得税的可行性如何？为两党共识，并受到民调认可。迪斯近期讲话，政府通过对富人征税筹资并进行更高回报的投资，受到了两党的支持。Gallup民调数据显示，超过60%的受访美国民众认为富人纳税比例过低（图3），可见对富人增税受到美国民众认可。拜登基建计划将使用预算和解程序吗？是的。预计在下个月基建计划的立法策略将变得更为清晰，我们偏向于认为基建计划将被作为一个大计划，使用一次和解程序通过。拜登基建计划对经济的影响？没有证据表明将会显著影响长期投资。公司投资主要受经济周期，尤其是市场总需求的影响，对税率的弹性不大。特朗普税改将公司税率从35%降至21%，但并未有效刺激投资（图4）。资本利得税方面，迪斯表示，长期投资大部分来自养老基金、主权财富基金等对税收不敏感的实体，因此资本利得税率和投资并未显示出明显的相关性（图5）。预计“美国就业计划”在近十年拉动GDP约2%。根据美联储的研究，基建投资的财政乘数可高至x2，预计“美国就业计划”在未来10年平均每年对美国实际GDP增速的拉动约为0.2%，鉴于多数投资前置，初期对GDP增速的拉动更大。债务方面，根据沃顿商学院最新测算，美国政府债务至2031年增加1.7%，但至2050年减少6.4%。风险提示：新冠病毒变异导致疫苗失效，经济再次陷入衰退","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{".DJI":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1015,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":374212552,"gmtCreate":1619448102976,"gmtModify":1704724098062,"author":{"id":"3536928846214760","authorId":"3536928846214760","name":"東海吉龍","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0ef8466588cf515f97a20c636e2be8a0","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3536928846214760","idStr":"3536928846214760"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"666","listText":"666","text":"666","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/374212552","repostId":"1112124246","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1112124246","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1619446921,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1112124246?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2021-04-26 22:22","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"Nonferrous sector moves higher as copper soars to decade high","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1112124246","media":"智通财经","summary":"高盛将未来12个月铜目标价提高到1.1万美元/吨。","content":"<p>On April 26th (Monday), the non-ferrous metal plate rose intraday. As of press time,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/FCX\">McMoRan Copper & Gold</a>rose by more than 6%,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AA\">Alcoa</a>Up more than 5%,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TRQ\">Turquoise Hill Resources</a>It rose by more than 4%, and Albemarle of the United States rose by more than 3%.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4747a8a90284928bc8ab8f9768b760f4\" tg-width=\"840\" tg-height=\"470\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>Previously, global copper prices soared to the highest level in a decade, with LUN copper rising to $9,700/t at one point. Includes<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/GS\">Goldman Sachs</a>Other institutions believe that considering the important role of copper in the green energy transition, the climate goals of various countries will make this round of copper price rebound the beginning of a longer-dimensional copper price rise.</p><p>Goldman Sachs raised its copper target price for the next 12 months to $11,000/ton, an increase of $500, or nearly 4.8%, from its reaffirmed 12-month copper target price two weeks ago.</p>","source":"highlight_zhitongcaijin","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Nonferrous sector moves higher as copper soars to decade high</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nNonferrous sector moves higher as copper soars to decade high\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">智通财经</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-04-26 22:22</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>On April 26th (Monday), the non-ferrous metal plate rose intraday. As of press time,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/FCX\">McMoRan Copper & Gold</a>rose by more than 6%,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AA\">Alcoa</a>Up more than 5%,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TRQ\">Turquoise Hill Resources</a>It rose by more than 4%, and Albemarle of the United States rose by more than 3%.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4747a8a90284928bc8ab8f9768b760f4\" tg-width=\"840\" tg-height=\"470\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>Previously, global copper prices soared to the highest level in a decade, with LUN copper rising to $9,700/t at one point. Includes<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/GS\">Goldman Sachs</a>Other institutions believe that considering the important role of copper in the green energy transition, the climate goals of various countries will make this round of copper price rebound the beginning of a longer-dimensional copper price rise.</p><p>Goldman Sachs raised its copper target price for the next 12 months to $11,000/ton, an increase of $500, or nearly 4.8%, from its reaffirmed 12-month copper target price two weeks ago.</p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> source：<a href=\"https://www.zhitongcaijing.com/content/detail/458639.html\">智通财经</a></p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/eeb9a4d452d8568bcc6a2558535ad160","relate_stocks":{"FCX":"麦克莫兰铜金","AA":"美国铝业"},"source_url":"https://www.zhitongcaijing.com/content/detail/458639.html","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/6ca2dcdccfa2217fb20a0351f4efe814","article_id":"1112124246","content_text":"4月26日(周一)，有色金属板块盘中走高，截至发稿，麦克莫兰铜金涨超6%，美国铝业涨超5%，Turquoise Hill Resources涨超4%，美国雅宝公司涨超3%。此前全球铜价飙升至十年来的最高水平，伦铜一度升至9700美元/吨。包括高盛等机构认为，考虑到铜在绿色能源转型中的重要作用，各国的气候目标将使本轮铜价反弹成为更长维度铜价上涨的开始。高盛将未来12个月铜目标价提高到1.1万美元/吨，较两周前其重申的12个月铜目标价上调500美元，升幅将近4.8%。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"TRQ":0.9,"FCX":0.9,"AA":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1120,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":375314336,"gmtCreate":1619307943225,"gmtModify":1704722173437,"author":{"id":"3536928846214760","authorId":"3536928846214760","name":"東海吉龍","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0ef8466588cf515f97a20c636e2be8a0","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3536928846214760","idStr":"3536928846214760"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"666","listText":"666","text":"666","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/375314336","repostId":"1130451341","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1130451341","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1619413290,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1130451341?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2021-04-26 13:01","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"The US dollar releases water, the world floods, and the strongest inflation annihilates all living beings!","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1130451341","media":"华尔街见闻","summary":"1997年以色列的一场大会上，有人问弗里德曼，能不能一句话概括出经济学的精义，这位著作等身的经济学大师脱口而出，天下没有免费的午餐，这就是我经济理论的全部。反观当前，过去几周，美国财政刺激和货币宽松的","content":"<p>At a conference in Israel in 1997, someone asked Friedman if he could summarize the essence of economics in one sentence. This master of economics, who has many books, blurted out that there is no free lunch in the world. This is all my economic theory.</p><p>On the other hand, in the past few weeks, the double wave of fiscal stimulus and monetary easing in the United States instantly shifted the attention of the global market from deflation to inflation, almost causing a bloody storm in the stock and bond markets. Last week, as Powell suddenly began to release hawkish signals in his interview, this gluttonous feast is afraid to enter the second half.</p><p>Someone has to be prepared to pay the bill before the wine is really gone. However, how big is the sheet, and who will buy it?</p><p>As the United States slowly begins to bargain-hunting global assets, the US dollar has started to return, and emerging markets have already taken the lead in setting off a rate hike tide in order to resist the impact. As the * of money flows around the world, it is time to read the words of former US Treasury Secretary Connery: The dollar is our currency, but it is your problem.</p><p>In this issue, we will discuss the ins and outs of this huge stimulus in the United States. We will focus on three things:</p><p><b>First, the United States launched an unprecedented fiscal and monetary double stimulus. Why did it take such a heavy hand?</b></p><p><b>Second, superstimulus could cause serious overheating of the U.S. economy?</b></p><p><b>Third, the United States releases water and the world pays the bill. How will this big release end?</b></p><p><b>01. How fierce is this round of stimulus in the United States?</b></p><p>How big is the fiscal stimulus? After the $2.2 trillion fiscal stimulus last April, the Trump administration introduced another $900 billion stimulus at the end of the year; By this year, Biden passed a 1.9 trillion stimulus bill, accounting for 10% of the GDP of the United States last year. In a blink of an eye, the latest 2.25 trillion infrastructure has been officially announced. Not counting the last item that has not been officially introduced, in just one year, the total amount of fiscal stimulus has reached 5 trillion days. In vertical comparison, it is six times that of the Obama administration's nearly 800 billion stimulus in the two years after the 2008 financial crisis; Horizontally, this figure represents 25% of U.S. GDP, which is far more than Germany (12%) and Japan (16%).</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/62286730e1f021dfbeb1393d4e5fc201\" tg-width=\"553\" tg-height=\"235\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>In terms of monetary policy, how big is this round of QE? During the financial crisis in 2008, the Federal Reserve spent six years and three rounds of QE, and only bought more than 3 trillion dollars of assets in total. However, this QE took only six months to easily reach this scale.</p><p>If the financial stimulus in 2008 was a left-handed shuriken and a right-handed revolver, this time it was two cannons. But why this time, both fiscal and monetary policies in the United States have to ramp up their horsepower in a storm?</p><p>Let's take a look at finances first. The passage of the latest 1.9 trillion is very dramatic. First of all, this number far exceeded everyone's expectations, because when Biden proposed this plan, the Republican-backed stimulus figure was only more than 600 billion, a difference of 1.3 trillion. Biden has always claimed that the two parties should unite and cooperate before, and everyone thinks that he will make a compromise, and the final water release should be about 900 billion dollars.</p><p>But unexpectedly, Biden suddenly made a \"overlord hard bow\" operation and forcibly passed a plan called \"budget reconciliation procedure\". Simply put, it significantly reduces the number of votes that would otherwise be needed to pass the stimulus bill in the Senate, requiring only more than half of the votes to pass. So in the future, when the vote on 1.9 trillion is held, even if the Republicans unanimously oppose it, the Democrats, who make up the majority in the Senate, can forcibly shake off the Republicans and move the bill forward on their own.</p><p>The question is, why is Biden suddenly anxious to get 1.9 trillion fast done despite Republican opposition?</p><p>Because in the 2008 financial crisis, Obama's Democratic Party suffered a big loss on fiscal stimulus.</p><p>Twelve years ago, it was because of Republican opposition that the Obama administration's fiscal stimulus package was drastically reduced, and the original $2 trillion stimulus package ended up passing less than 800 billion.</p><p>But you know, this small amount of money was far from a quick recovery. Over the next two years, the U.S. economy grew slowly, the recovery of the job market stalled, Obama's popular approval ratings plummeted, and soon he lost the House of Representatives in 2010, and the Republicans regained control.</p><p>It can be said that in the last round of crisis, it was precisely because the Obama administration was not tough enough that not only led to the loss of power of the Democratic Party, but also made the US economy mired in the quagmire for longer.</p><p>Biden, as Obama's deputy at the time, was clearly impressed with this lesson. Therefore, after he came to power, he did not stop, and he went head-to-head, for fear of repeating the same mistakes.</p><p>So what about quantitative easing? From the above facts, it seems that the QE in 2009 was the \"sub-optimal choice\" made by the United States when its fiscal policy was bound by the Republican Party. Now that there is a lot of stimulation, why does Powell insist on withdrawing from QE?</p><p>In our opinion, there are roughly three reasons:</p><p>First, Powell never believes there will be real severe inflationary pressures. As he said at the hearing of the Financial Services Committee of the U.S. House of Representatives not long ago, global deflation has lasted for more than 20 years. Now, how can just one inflation get out of control?</p><p>Second, even if there are inflationary pressures, because of the US dollar's reserve currency status, the consequences of inflation do not need to be borne by the United States alone. We'll get to that later.</p><p>Third, the Fed is more worried about deflationary expectations than inflationary pressures.</p><p>The so-called deflation means that the inflation rate falls below zero, and the whole society is in an environment in which prices continue to fall generally.</p><p>Once people have the expectation that prices will continue to fall, they will save what they want to buy for when it is cheaper in the future. For example, if you want to buy a house, it is 5w per square meter now, but you expect it to become 4w per square meter in two years. If conditions permit, it must be more affordable to buy it after two years. The same logic is true for enterprises to buy raw materials and invest.</p><p>In this way, the desire to spend and invest is greatly reduced, and no amount of money in hand will help. Over 60% of the GDP of the United States comes from consumption. If the demand is not enough, the production will naturally not go up. The economy can only stagnate. Just look at Japan's \"lost 20 years\" to know how terrible the whole process is.</p><p>In the short term, QE is definitely a strong medicine to alleviate deflationary expectations. All it needs to do is push up asset prices, especially the stock market and property market, thus creating the illusion that people are rich and the economy is thriving. Even if it doesn't translate into real cash flow, people may happily spend more, stimulating production and economic recovery. This is entirely a matter of psychology, and it works especially well with fiscal policy.</p><p>However, don't confuse the bull market with the strength of the real economy. Is QE drinking poison to quench thirst, and will it have a backlash to the economy in the future? That's a story later, and we'll talk about it below.</p><p><b>02. The U.S. economy may overheat</b></p><p>As we explained just now, the scale of fiscal and monetary stimulus in the United States is unprecedented. So what will happen to the U.S. economy with such a huge stimulus? The answer is that inflation is rising, the economy is overheating, and the extent of overheating is likely to be much worse than markets expect. Because of the long-term and large-scale QE, it unknowingly gave inflation huge upside.</p><p>In order to understand the impact of long-term QE, let's first explain the whole transmission path of the central bank's monetary policy for macro-control in the simplest way; Go back to a \"prehistoric\" world without QE and see how the monetary policy system works under normal circumstances; Now with QE, how has the operation mode changed.</p><p>We often say that the central bank spreads money, but the money is definitely not directly spread on the people, but first spread to commercial banks and other financial institutions to form the base currency. There are many ways, including adjusting the rediscount rate and adjusting the deposit reserve ratio. The buying and selling of government bonds most related to QE is also one of them. When the central bank buys bonds, it pays a sum of money at the same time, which is essentially to inject a sum of base money into the financial system.</p><p>Then, banks either put the money into the real economy, that is, lend it to enterprises and households through loans, so that they can produce and consume, and promote economic growth; Either, if most enterprises and families are unwilling to borrow money, the remaining money will stay in the banking system in the form of savings, or flow into financial markets such as the stock market. On the one hand, the development of the real economy lacks capital drive, and on the other hand, the financial market may accumulate excess funds to cause bubbles.</p><p>In the world before QE, monetary policy went very smoothly on the above road, that is, the liquidity provided by the Federal Reserve through conventional monetary policy could be well transmitted to enterprises and residents. During the economic recession, while active fiscal policy stabilizes the confidence of enterprises and residents, the central bank lowers the policy interest rate and provides liquidity to the banking industry; As soon as commercial banks have money, residents and businesses are encouraged by low interest rates and fiscal stimulus to actively borrow money to buy houses and invest.</p><p>Once the economy starts to recover, all the central bank has to do is gradually raise policy rates and curb credit, thus preventing inflation. Therefore, it can be seen from the figure that the three lines of textbooks of base money, money supply and bank credit generally rise and fall together. In this process, the long-term interest rate also decreases and rises with the policy interest rate. The United States and Europe before 2008 and Japan before 1990 were in this state.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5db62c0fd67426e30d8e887c264e2c1d\" tg-width=\"553\" tg-height=\"205\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>But QE broke the picture. Just now, we introduced that after the burst of the real estate bubble in 2008, due to the weak fiscal stimulus, the United States had to walk on one leg, release a lot of liquidity with monetary policy QE, and try to stimulate domestic demand, but with little success in the face of hard-hit families and enterprises. After collateral prices plummeted, people were not only reluctant to borrow money, but they still had a lot of debt waiting to be paid.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e5df372cd565af39ad4d6bcb81d7c6d0\" tg-width=\"553\" tg-height=\"438\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>Therefore, on the one hand, with the expansion of QE and the drop of interest rate to 0, the liquidity of the United States has reached an unprecedented level, and the proportion of base money in GDP has increased from 6% in 2008 to 25%; On the other hand, people hold huge savings but don't spend them. Not only does the money not leave the banking industry in the form of loans, but it also goes back in the form of savings and loan repayments (first picture), which delays the economy and inflation (second picture).</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/519c94b8f058459bc94057a57c4e4bcd\" tg-width=\"553\" tg-height=\"265\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c4531164bb26df43688035a5cf421b70\" tg-width=\"553\" tg-height=\"282\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>That is to say, if the whole monetary system still operates according to the pattern before 2008, inflation in the United States should have risen to a very high level by now. If the money scattered by the central bank is compared to water, the current price is like a sponge wrapped in a layer of gel and difficult to enter water. Once the gel is peeled off, the sponge will quickly absorb water and expand. So we can see what happens once demand improves and people start to borrow again: bank credit and money supply may both be several times higher than they are now, and prices may rise sharply with it, which will mean very high inflation.</p><p>Under such expectations, once the economy shows signs of recovery, the high tension over inflationary pressures will exacerbate the market's panic about liquidity fluctuations. Investors are worried that the central bank will have to reduce bond purchases and even sell long-term bonds at that time, so they will also sell bonds one after another to avoid risks. Therefore, the long-term interest rate of QE countries will rise faster than without QE, further causing serious fluctuations to the real economy, stock market and commodity market.</p><p>The longer QE lasts, the more serious these problems will undoubtedly be. Gu Chaoming, chief researcher of Nomura Securities, put forward a \"quantitative easing Trap\" model during the third round of QE by the Federal Reserve in 2013, and discussed the degree of damage to the economy caused by long-term QE:</p><p>Initially, the long-term interest rate decline in QE countries is much larger than that in non-QE countries, meaning that the economic recovery is subsequently faster (t1). However, as the economy recovers, monetary policy tightens, long-term interest rates climb rapidly, and some interest rate-sensitive industries face declining demand, forcing the central bank to relax its policy stance. After the economy recovered again, as the market re-focused on the possibility of the central bank absorbing excess reserves, long-term interest rates went up in a repeated cycle of so-called \"QE Trap\".</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/95fcf876d04c9fa79632dabb02901fe9\" tg-width=\"553\" tg-height=\"367\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>In contrast, long-term interest rate declines in non-QE countries are gradual, which delays the onset of recovery (t2); But once the economy starts to improve, the pace of recovery will actually be faster because of lower interest rates.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c252a193b242e7b67bb52a022f673936\" tg-width=\"553\" tg-height=\"415\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>From the seven-year experience of gradual normalization of monetary policy in the United States before the epidemic, we can also draw this conclusion. The last round of QE in the United States was phased out in 2013, but what happens if it doesn't? Will the economy be better? Maybe not.</p><p>When the Federal Reserve first began to reduce its bond purchases, the inflation rate was only 1%. After that, although there were nine rate hike and quantitative tightening (QT) started again in October 2017, the inflation rate was still slowly rising. What is holding down inflation is the same reason that keeps it slowly upward, that is, the savings in the hands of households and businesses have never been digested, and without borrowing money, rising interest rates will not put pressure on them. This, in turn, suggests that even if interest rates remain low at that time, economic activity may remain indifferent.</p><p>Not only that, due to the insufficient demand of the real economy, continued QE may lead to a large amount of spare money entering the real estate and financial markets, stirring up a thick asset bubble. In fact, U.S. commercial real estate prices are now 50% higher than their previous peak in 2007.</p><p>Importantly, in view of the fact that this round of QE is much faster than that of the financial crisis, Gu Chaoming believes in a recently released research report that the US economy has already stepped into the \"quantitative easing trap\". Once the private sector resumes borrowing, inflation will soar and long-term debt interest rates will soar. At that time, it will be necessary to greatly raise the policy interest rate to suppress inflation. In the prehistoric world without QE in the late 1970s, where the Fed raised its policy interest rate substantially to 22% to curb inflation, what level does it need now?</p><p><b>03. The United States releases water, and the world pays the bill. How will this big release end?</b></p><p>Just now we talked about the impact of super water release on the US economy. Due to the existence of US dollar hegemony, the influence of US economic policy is by no means limited to the United States. Through a series of transmission mechanisms, this round of economic stimulus in the United States has a far-reaching impact, and it is likely that the world will pay for Americans.</p><p>Among them, emerging markets may pay the biggest price, which has always been the case, and may also be one of the reasons why the United States has unscrupulously released water.</p><p>In 2020, with the surge in the circulation of the US dollar, which is the global reserve currency, various countries started the road of releasing water to resist the inflation caused by the excessive issuance of currency by the United States, and the United States exported inflation to the world. This is directly reflected in the increase of housing prices in various countries. OECD data shows that housing prices in 89% of countries in the world rose last year, the highest proportion since 2000, especially in Turkey and Russia, which rose by more than 20%.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/75c4ae79984d71e542068e5f4451b545\" tg-width=\"553\" tg-height=\"334\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>Now, with the strengthening of inflation expectations in the United States, the sharp rise of US bond yields, and the misalignment of the recovery rhythm between the United States and emerging market countries, the US dollar has begun to strengthen in stages, showing a return trend, and the situation has been completely reversed. Emerging markets have been forced to respond again to the old saying that Americans print money and the world pays for it.</p><p>Since March, emerging market countries have collectively \"jumped ahead\" and rate hike ahead of the Federal Reserve's action. In just one week before and after the interest rate meeting in the United States in March, many emerging market countries set off a rate hike wave:</p><p>On March 17th, the Bank of Brazil announced that it would raise its benchmark lending rate by 75 basis points to 2.75% (50 basis points expected).</p><p>On March 18, the central bank of Turkey announced that it would raise its key interest rate by 200 basis points to 19% (expected to raise to 18%).</p><p>On March 19, the Central Bank of Russia announced a rate hike of 25 basis points to 4.50% (expected to maintain 4.25%).</p><p>Not only that, but the indicators of emerging countries such as India,Argentina,Malaysia,Thailand,Korea and other emerging countries all show that the market's expectations for rate hike are increasing, and there will be at least one rate hike this year to the first half of next year.</p><p>The main reason driving the rate hike in emerging market countries is certainly the upward trend of inflation. From the general analysis, the pressure of inflation still comes from the supply side. On the one hand, the production capacity of downstream consumer goods in such emerging market countries is weak itself, and the impact of the epidemic has widened the gap between supply and demand, which is directly reflected in pushing up commodity prices. On the other hand, the proportion of food and transportation consumption in these countries is over 40-50%, and they rely on imports and exports. Therefore, the rapid upward trend of global petroleum products and food prices further increases the imported inflationary pressure in emerging market countries.</p><p>Figure: Inflation Level Reaches Target Policy Area</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e94ce07a7037fde2b973d9eb87b28c31\" tg-width=\"553\" tg-height=\"218\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>These emerging market countries, which are highly open and dependent on foreign trade, can only passively accept the spillovers of developed countries' economies and policies to a large extent. However, compared with the upward trend of inflation, the economic recovery of these emerging countries is still in a relatively slow process, especially in Brazil and Turkey, where the unemployment rate is higher than 10%, and the control of the epidemic is once again being tested.</p><p>Figure: Economic recovery will take time</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2f81cda958ecf4d254726ed35cd77803\" tg-width=\"553\" tg-height=\"204\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>At the same time, in order to prevent the a vicious circle expectation of excessive return of US dollar-depreciation of local currency-hyperinflation-domestic rate hike-decline of asset prices-exposure of external debt, emerging market countries have to take the lead in starting rate hike to curb bubbles and stabilize capital outflows.</p><p>Figure: The largest appreciation of national currencies relative to the US dollar last year</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f5087af222bd88b05f938b86843362cc\" tg-width=\"553\" tg-height=\"234\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>And those countries with high foreign debt ratios and significant asset market gains may pay a greater price. Since the beginning of this year, Turkey's overnight lending rate has been higher than 15%, which is still difficult to curb the international capital outflow. After the expected rate hike, the central bank governor stepped down, which triggered a vicious circle expectations, asset prices plummeted and exchange rates collapsed. In terms of external debt, Chile, South Africa, etc. are next.</p><p>High inflation, especially in countries with high asset price increases, shows that more capital enters the virtual economy rather than the real economy recovers, and there is also a greater risk of capital outflow. For example, Argentina and India. rate hike in these countries is more of an operation of two harms and less power, and there is not much independence of monetary policy. Once there is a faster capital outflow, they will pay the price for last year's liquidity feast.</p><p>In the United States, with the return of funds, the arbitrage transactions between the United States and Europe increase the demand for U.S. debt, and the upward pressure on US Treasury yields will be eased.</p><p>Figure: The spread level between Europe and the United States widens to the average level</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/17f074dd3e16aa39866470bd4c68767c\" tg-width=\"553\" tg-height=\"294\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>With the tide and ebb of the US dollar, China, as the largest emerging market country, will withstand some shocks thanks to its domestic supply capacity, liquidity restraint and currency independence. However, under the global storm, the pressure on asset prices can hardly be eased.</p><p>Perhaps money can be overprinted, but wealth can't. When we look at the current situation of global currency from a more macro perspective, a more profound proposition is how to make good use of our own policy tools, and how to identify good assets as individuals, so that our labor remuneration can be preserved more stably. Understanding the historical responsibility of the RMB in our hands and the value of keeping a low profile, we may be able to prepare ourselves for the risks ahead.</p>","source":"highlight_wallstreetcn","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>The US dollar releases water, the world floods, and the strongest inflation annihilates all living beings!</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nThe US dollar releases water, the world floods, and the strongest inflation annihilates all living beings!\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">华尔街见闻</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-04-26 13:01</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>At a conference in Israel in 1997, someone asked Friedman if he could summarize the essence of economics in one sentence. This master of economics, who has many books, blurted out that there is no free lunch in the world. This is all my economic theory.</p><p>On the other hand, in the past few weeks, the double wave of fiscal stimulus and monetary easing in the United States instantly shifted the attention of the global market from deflation to inflation, almost causing a bloody storm in the stock and bond markets. Last week, as Powell suddenly began to release hawkish signals in his interview, this gluttonous feast is afraid to enter the second half.</p><p>Someone has to be prepared to pay the bill before the wine is really gone. However, how big is the sheet, and who will buy it?</p><p>As the United States slowly begins to bargain-hunting global assets, the US dollar has started to return, and emerging markets have already taken the lead in setting off a rate hike tide in order to resist the impact. As the * of money flows around the world, it is time to read the words of former US Treasury Secretary Connery: The dollar is our currency, but it is your problem.</p><p>In this issue, we will discuss the ins and outs of this huge stimulus in the United States. We will focus on three things:</p><p><b>First, the United States launched an unprecedented fiscal and monetary double stimulus. Why did it take such a heavy hand?</b></p><p><b>Second, superstimulus could cause serious overheating of the U.S. economy?</b></p><p><b>Third, the United States releases water and the world pays the bill. How will this big release end?</b></p><p><b>01. How fierce is this round of stimulus in the United States?</b></p><p>How big is the fiscal stimulus? After the $2.2 trillion fiscal stimulus last April, the Trump administration introduced another $900 billion stimulus at the end of the year; By this year, Biden passed a 1.9 trillion stimulus bill, accounting for 10% of the GDP of the United States last year. In a blink of an eye, the latest 2.25 trillion infrastructure has been officially announced. Not counting the last item that has not been officially introduced, in just one year, the total amount of fiscal stimulus has reached 5 trillion days. In vertical comparison, it is six times that of the Obama administration's nearly 800 billion stimulus in the two years after the 2008 financial crisis; Horizontally, this figure represents 25% of U.S. GDP, which is far more than Germany (12%) and Japan (16%).</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/62286730e1f021dfbeb1393d4e5fc201\" tg-width=\"553\" tg-height=\"235\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>In terms of monetary policy, how big is this round of QE? During the financial crisis in 2008, the Federal Reserve spent six years and three rounds of QE, and only bought more than 3 trillion dollars of assets in total. However, this QE took only six months to easily reach this scale.</p><p>If the financial stimulus in 2008 was a left-handed shuriken and a right-handed revolver, this time it was two cannons. But why this time, both fiscal and monetary policies in the United States have to ramp up their horsepower in a storm?</p><p>Let's take a look at finances first. The passage of the latest 1.9 trillion is very dramatic. First of all, this number far exceeded everyone's expectations, because when Biden proposed this plan, the Republican-backed stimulus figure was only more than 600 billion, a difference of 1.3 trillion. Biden has always claimed that the two parties should unite and cooperate before, and everyone thinks that he will make a compromise, and the final water release should be about 900 billion dollars.</p><p>But unexpectedly, Biden suddenly made a \"overlord hard bow\" operation and forcibly passed a plan called \"budget reconciliation procedure\". Simply put, it significantly reduces the number of votes that would otherwise be needed to pass the stimulus bill in the Senate, requiring only more than half of the votes to pass. So in the future, when the vote on 1.9 trillion is held, even if the Republicans unanimously oppose it, the Democrats, who make up the majority in the Senate, can forcibly shake off the Republicans and move the bill forward on their own.</p><p>The question is, why is Biden suddenly anxious to get 1.9 trillion fast done despite Republican opposition?</p><p>Because in the 2008 financial crisis, Obama's Democratic Party suffered a big loss on fiscal stimulus.</p><p>Twelve years ago, it was because of Republican opposition that the Obama administration's fiscal stimulus package was drastically reduced, and the original $2 trillion stimulus package ended up passing less than 800 billion.</p><p>But you know, this small amount of money was far from a quick recovery. Over the next two years, the U.S. economy grew slowly, the recovery of the job market stalled, Obama's popular approval ratings plummeted, and soon he lost the House of Representatives in 2010, and the Republicans regained control.</p><p>It can be said that in the last round of crisis, it was precisely because the Obama administration was not tough enough that not only led to the loss of power of the Democratic Party, but also made the US economy mired in the quagmire for longer.</p><p>Biden, as Obama's deputy at the time, was clearly impressed with this lesson. Therefore, after he came to power, he did not stop, and he went head-to-head, for fear of repeating the same mistakes.</p><p>So what about quantitative easing? From the above facts, it seems that the QE in 2009 was the \"sub-optimal choice\" made by the United States when its fiscal policy was bound by the Republican Party. Now that there is a lot of stimulation, why does Powell insist on withdrawing from QE?</p><p>In our opinion, there are roughly three reasons:</p><p>First, Powell never believes there will be real severe inflationary pressures. As he said at the hearing of the Financial Services Committee of the U.S. House of Representatives not long ago, global deflation has lasted for more than 20 years. Now, how can just one inflation get out of control?</p><p>Second, even if there are inflationary pressures, because of the US dollar's reserve currency status, the consequences of inflation do not need to be borne by the United States alone. We'll get to that later.</p><p>Third, the Fed is more worried about deflationary expectations than inflationary pressures.</p><p>The so-called deflation means that the inflation rate falls below zero, and the whole society is in an environment in which prices continue to fall generally.</p><p>Once people have the expectation that prices will continue to fall, they will save what they want to buy for when it is cheaper in the future. For example, if you want to buy a house, it is 5w per square meter now, but you expect it to become 4w per square meter in two years. If conditions permit, it must be more affordable to buy it after two years. The same logic is true for enterprises to buy raw materials and invest.</p><p>In this way, the desire to spend and invest is greatly reduced, and no amount of money in hand will help. Over 60% of the GDP of the United States comes from consumption. If the demand is not enough, the production will naturally not go up. The economy can only stagnate. Just look at Japan's \"lost 20 years\" to know how terrible the whole process is.</p><p>In the short term, QE is definitely a strong medicine to alleviate deflationary expectations. All it needs to do is push up asset prices, especially the stock market and property market, thus creating the illusion that people are rich and the economy is thriving. Even if it doesn't translate into real cash flow, people may happily spend more, stimulating production and economic recovery. This is entirely a matter of psychology, and it works especially well with fiscal policy.</p><p>However, don't confuse the bull market with the strength of the real economy. Is QE drinking poison to quench thirst, and will it have a backlash to the economy in the future? That's a story later, and we'll talk about it below.</p><p><b>02. The U.S. economy may overheat</b></p><p>As we explained just now, the scale of fiscal and monetary stimulus in the United States is unprecedented. So what will happen to the U.S. economy with such a huge stimulus? The answer is that inflation is rising, the economy is overheating, and the extent of overheating is likely to be much worse than markets expect. Because of the long-term and large-scale QE, it unknowingly gave inflation huge upside.</p><p>In order to understand the impact of long-term QE, let's first explain the whole transmission path of the central bank's monetary policy for macro-control in the simplest way; Go back to a \"prehistoric\" world without QE and see how the monetary policy system works under normal circumstances; Now with QE, how has the operation mode changed.</p><p>We often say that the central bank spreads money, but the money is definitely not directly spread on the people, but first spread to commercial banks and other financial institutions to form the base currency. There are many ways, including adjusting the rediscount rate and adjusting the deposit reserve ratio. The buying and selling of government bonds most related to QE is also one of them. When the central bank buys bonds, it pays a sum of money at the same time, which is essentially to inject a sum of base money into the financial system.</p><p>Then, banks either put the money into the real economy, that is, lend it to enterprises and households through loans, so that they can produce and consume, and promote economic growth; Either, if most enterprises and families are unwilling to borrow money, the remaining money will stay in the banking system in the form of savings, or flow into financial markets such as the stock market. On the one hand, the development of the real economy lacks capital drive, and on the other hand, the financial market may accumulate excess funds to cause bubbles.</p><p>In the world before QE, monetary policy went very smoothly on the above road, that is, the liquidity provided by the Federal Reserve through conventional monetary policy could be well transmitted to enterprises and residents. During the economic recession, while active fiscal policy stabilizes the confidence of enterprises and residents, the central bank lowers the policy interest rate and provides liquidity to the banking industry; As soon as commercial banks have money, residents and businesses are encouraged by low interest rates and fiscal stimulus to actively borrow money to buy houses and invest.</p><p>Once the economy starts to recover, all the central bank has to do is gradually raise policy rates and curb credit, thus preventing inflation. Therefore, it can be seen from the figure that the three lines of textbooks of base money, money supply and bank credit generally rise and fall together. In this process, the long-term interest rate also decreases and rises with the policy interest rate. The United States and Europe before 2008 and Japan before 1990 were in this state.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5db62c0fd67426e30d8e887c264e2c1d\" tg-width=\"553\" tg-height=\"205\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>But QE broke the picture. Just now, we introduced that after the burst of the real estate bubble in 2008, due to the weak fiscal stimulus, the United States had to walk on one leg, release a lot of liquidity with monetary policy QE, and try to stimulate domestic demand, but with little success in the face of hard-hit families and enterprises. After collateral prices plummeted, people were not only reluctant to borrow money, but they still had a lot of debt waiting to be paid.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e5df372cd565af39ad4d6bcb81d7c6d0\" tg-width=\"553\" tg-height=\"438\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>Therefore, on the one hand, with the expansion of QE and the drop of interest rate to 0, the liquidity of the United States has reached an unprecedented level, and the proportion of base money in GDP has increased from 6% in 2008 to 25%; On the other hand, people hold huge savings but don't spend them. Not only does the money not leave the banking industry in the form of loans, but it also goes back in the form of savings and loan repayments (first picture), which delays the economy and inflation (second picture).</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/519c94b8f058459bc94057a57c4e4bcd\" tg-width=\"553\" tg-height=\"265\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c4531164bb26df43688035a5cf421b70\" tg-width=\"553\" tg-height=\"282\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>That is to say, if the whole monetary system still operates according to the pattern before 2008, inflation in the United States should have risen to a very high level by now. If the money scattered by the central bank is compared to water, the current price is like a sponge wrapped in a layer of gel and difficult to enter water. Once the gel is peeled off, the sponge will quickly absorb water and expand. So we can see what happens once demand improves and people start to borrow again: bank credit and money supply may both be several times higher than they are now, and prices may rise sharply with it, which will mean very high inflation.</p><p>Under such expectations, once the economy shows signs of recovery, the high tension over inflationary pressures will exacerbate the market's panic about liquidity fluctuations. Investors are worried that the central bank will have to reduce bond purchases and even sell long-term bonds at that time, so they will also sell bonds one after another to avoid risks. Therefore, the long-term interest rate of QE countries will rise faster than without QE, further causing serious fluctuations to the real economy, stock market and commodity market.</p><p>The longer QE lasts, the more serious these problems will undoubtedly be. Gu Chaoming, chief researcher of Nomura Securities, put forward a \"quantitative easing Trap\" model during the third round of QE by the Federal Reserve in 2013, and discussed the degree of damage to the economy caused by long-term QE:</p><p>Initially, the long-term interest rate decline in QE countries is much larger than that in non-QE countries, meaning that the economic recovery is subsequently faster (t1). However, as the economy recovers, monetary policy tightens, long-term interest rates climb rapidly, and some interest rate-sensitive industries face declining demand, forcing the central bank to relax its policy stance. After the economy recovered again, as the market re-focused on the possibility of the central bank absorbing excess reserves, long-term interest rates went up in a repeated cycle of so-called \"QE Trap\".</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/95fcf876d04c9fa79632dabb02901fe9\" tg-width=\"553\" tg-height=\"367\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>In contrast, long-term interest rate declines in non-QE countries are gradual, which delays the onset of recovery (t2); But once the economy starts to improve, the pace of recovery will actually be faster because of lower interest rates.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c252a193b242e7b67bb52a022f673936\" tg-width=\"553\" tg-height=\"415\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>From the seven-year experience of gradual normalization of monetary policy in the United States before the epidemic, we can also draw this conclusion. The last round of QE in the United States was phased out in 2013, but what happens if it doesn't? Will the economy be better? Maybe not.</p><p>When the Federal Reserve first began to reduce its bond purchases, the inflation rate was only 1%. After that, although there were nine rate hike and quantitative tightening (QT) started again in October 2017, the inflation rate was still slowly rising. What is holding down inflation is the same reason that keeps it slowly upward, that is, the savings in the hands of households and businesses have never been digested, and without borrowing money, rising interest rates will not put pressure on them. This, in turn, suggests that even if interest rates remain low at that time, economic activity may remain indifferent.</p><p>Not only that, due to the insufficient demand of the real economy, continued QE may lead to a large amount of spare money entering the real estate and financial markets, stirring up a thick asset bubble. In fact, U.S. commercial real estate prices are now 50% higher than their previous peak in 2007.</p><p>Importantly, in view of the fact that this round of QE is much faster than that of the financial crisis, Gu Chaoming believes in a recently released research report that the US economy has already stepped into the \"quantitative easing trap\". Once the private sector resumes borrowing, inflation will soar and long-term debt interest rates will soar. At that time, it will be necessary to greatly raise the policy interest rate to suppress inflation. In the prehistoric world without QE in the late 1970s, where the Fed raised its policy interest rate substantially to 22% to curb inflation, what level does it need now?</p><p><b>03. The United States releases water, and the world pays the bill. How will this big release end?</b></p><p>Just now we talked about the impact of super water release on the US economy. Due to the existence of US dollar hegemony, the influence of US economic policy is by no means limited to the United States. Through a series of transmission mechanisms, this round of economic stimulus in the United States has a far-reaching impact, and it is likely that the world will pay for Americans.</p><p>Among them, emerging markets may pay the biggest price, which has always been the case, and may also be one of the reasons why the United States has unscrupulously released water.</p><p>In 2020, with the surge in the circulation of the US dollar, which is the global reserve currency, various countries started the road of releasing water to resist the inflation caused by the excessive issuance of currency by the United States, and the United States exported inflation to the world. This is directly reflected in the increase of housing prices in various countries. OECD data shows that housing prices in 89% of countries in the world rose last year, the highest proportion since 2000, especially in Turkey and Russia, which rose by more than 20%.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/75c4ae79984d71e542068e5f4451b545\" tg-width=\"553\" tg-height=\"334\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>Now, with the strengthening of inflation expectations in the United States, the sharp rise of US bond yields, and the misalignment of the recovery rhythm between the United States and emerging market countries, the US dollar has begun to strengthen in stages, showing a return trend, and the situation has been completely reversed. Emerging markets have been forced to respond again to the old saying that Americans print money and the world pays for it.</p><p>Since March, emerging market countries have collectively \"jumped ahead\" and rate hike ahead of the Federal Reserve's action. In just one week before and after the interest rate meeting in the United States in March, many emerging market countries set off a rate hike wave:</p><p>On March 17th, the Bank of Brazil announced that it would raise its benchmark lending rate by 75 basis points to 2.75% (50 basis points expected).</p><p>On March 18, the central bank of Turkey announced that it would raise its key interest rate by 200 basis points to 19% (expected to raise to 18%).</p><p>On March 19, the Central Bank of Russia announced a rate hike of 25 basis points to 4.50% (expected to maintain 4.25%).</p><p>Not only that, but the indicators of emerging countries such as India,Argentina,Malaysia,Thailand,Korea and other emerging countries all show that the market's expectations for rate hike are increasing, and there will be at least one rate hike this year to the first half of next year.</p><p>The main reason driving the rate hike in emerging market countries is certainly the upward trend of inflation. From the general analysis, the pressure of inflation still comes from the supply side. On the one hand, the production capacity of downstream consumer goods in such emerging market countries is weak itself, and the impact of the epidemic has widened the gap between supply and demand, which is directly reflected in pushing up commodity prices. On the other hand, the proportion of food and transportation consumption in these countries is over 40-50%, and they rely on imports and exports. Therefore, the rapid upward trend of global petroleum products and food prices further increases the imported inflationary pressure in emerging market countries.</p><p>Figure: Inflation Level Reaches Target Policy Area</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e94ce07a7037fde2b973d9eb87b28c31\" tg-width=\"553\" tg-height=\"218\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>These emerging market countries, which are highly open and dependent on foreign trade, can only passively accept the spillovers of developed countries' economies and policies to a large extent. However, compared with the upward trend of inflation, the economic recovery of these emerging countries is still in a relatively slow process, especially in Brazil and Turkey, where the unemployment rate is higher than 10%, and the control of the epidemic is once again being tested.</p><p>Figure: Economic recovery will take time</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2f81cda958ecf4d254726ed35cd77803\" tg-width=\"553\" tg-height=\"204\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>At the same time, in order to prevent the a vicious circle expectation of excessive return of US dollar-depreciation of local currency-hyperinflation-domestic rate hike-decline of asset prices-exposure of external debt, emerging market countries have to take the lead in starting rate hike to curb bubbles and stabilize capital outflows.</p><p>Figure: The largest appreciation of national currencies relative to the US dollar last year</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f5087af222bd88b05f938b86843362cc\" tg-width=\"553\" tg-height=\"234\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>And those countries with high foreign debt ratios and significant asset market gains may pay a greater price. Since the beginning of this year, Turkey's overnight lending rate has been higher than 15%, which is still difficult to curb the international capital outflow. After the expected rate hike, the central bank governor stepped down, which triggered a vicious circle expectations, asset prices plummeted and exchange rates collapsed. In terms of external debt, Chile, South Africa, etc. are next.</p><p>High inflation, especially in countries with high asset price increases, shows that more capital enters the virtual economy rather than the real economy recovers, and there is also a greater risk of capital outflow. For example, Argentina and India. rate hike in these countries is more of an operation of two harms and less power, and there is not much independence of monetary policy. Once there is a faster capital outflow, they will pay the price for last year's liquidity feast.</p><p>In the United States, with the return of funds, the arbitrage transactions between the United States and Europe increase the demand for U.S. debt, and the upward pressure on US Treasury yields will be eased.</p><p>Figure: The spread level between Europe and the United States widens to the average level</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/17f074dd3e16aa39866470bd4c68767c\" tg-width=\"553\" tg-height=\"294\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>With the tide and ebb of the US dollar, China, as the largest emerging market country, will withstand some shocks thanks to its domestic supply capacity, liquidity restraint and currency independence. However, under the global storm, the pressure on asset prices can hardly be eased.</p><p>Perhaps money can be overprinted, but wealth can't. When we look at the current situation of global currency from a more macro perspective, a more profound proposition is how to make good use of our own policy tools, and how to identify good assets as individuals, so that our labor remuneration can be preserved more stably. Understanding the historical responsibility of the RMB in our hands and the value of keeping a low profile, we may be able to prepare ourselves for the risks ahead.</p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> source：<a href=\"https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s/f3lP37XC665lbZXQhGuNGA\">华尔街见闻</a></p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/082208e3c37780dd55878056410ffa43","relate_stocks":{},"source_url":"https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s/f3lP37XC665lbZXQhGuNGA","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/cc96873d3d23ee6ac10685520df9c100","article_id":"1130451341","content_text":"1997年以色列的一场大会上，有人问弗里德曼，能不能一句话概括出经济学的精义，这位著作等身的经济学大师脱口而出，天下没有免费的午餐，这就是我经济理论的全部。反观当前，过去几周，美国财政刺激和货币宽松的双重浪潮，把全球市场的注意力瞬间从通缩转向通胀，几乎在股债市场掀起血雨腥风。而上周伴随鲍威尔在采访中突然开始释放鹰派信号，这场饕餮盛宴怕是要进入下半场了。真正酒阑人散之前，有人必须要做好买单的准备。只是，单有多大，又由谁来买？随着美国慢慢开始抄底全球资产，美元已经启动回流，新兴市场为了抵御冲击，早已经率先掀起了加息潮。货币的汪洋流向全球之际，是时候品一品美国前财长康纳利的话：美元是我们的货币，却是你们的问题。本期我们就来盘一盘美国这场巨量刺激的来龙去脉。我们将着重探讨三件事:第一，美国推出史无前例的财政货币双刺激，为什么要下这么重的狠手？第二，超级刺激可能导致美国经济严重过热？第三，美国放水，全球买单，这场大放水又会以怎样的方式收场？01、美国这轮刺激有多猛财政刺激有多大？去年4月2.2万亿美元的财政刺激之后，特朗普政府年底又出台了一项9000亿美元的刺激；到了今年，拜登上来就通过了1.9万亿刺激法案，占到美国去年GDP的10%，转眼最新的2.25万亿基建又已官宣。不算还未正式出台的最后一项，短短一年时间，财政刺激总量已经达到了5万亿的天量，纵向对比，是08年金融危机之后两年奥巴马政府将近8000亿刺激的整整6倍；横向对比，这个数字占美国GDP的25%，这一比例远远超过德国（12%）和日本（16%）。而货币政策方面，这轮QE又有多大？2008年金融危机时，美联储耗时6年，用了三轮QE，一共也只购买了3万多亿美元资产，而这次QE只花了6个月，就轻轻松松达到了这一规模。如果08年的财货刺激是左手手里剑右手左轮手枪的话，这次就是两杆齐发的加农炮。但是为什么这次美国财政和货币政策两头都要狂风暴雨式地加足马力？先来看看财政。最新1.9万亿的通过非常戏剧化。这个数字首先是远远超过大家预期的，因为拜登提出这项计划的最初，共和党支持的刺激数字只有6000多亿，之间差了1.3万亿。而拜登之前又一直声称两党要团结合作，大家就认为他会做个折中，最后放水量应该也就在9000亿美元左右。但出人意料的是，拜登突然来了个“霸王硬上弓”式的操作，强行通过了一个叫作“预算调和程序”的方案。简单来说，它把参议院通过刺激法案原本所需要的票数大大降低，只需要过半数就能通过。于是未来就1.9万亿进行投票的时候，就算共和党一致反对，占参议院多数的民主党，也能强行甩开共和党，凭一己之力让法案得到推进。问题是，拜登为什么突然不顾共和党反对，急于让1.9万亿快速板上钉钉？因为2008年金融危机时，奥巴马的民主党就在财政刺激上吃过大亏。12年前，正是因为共和党反对，奥巴马政府的财政刺激方案大幅缩水，原本2万亿美元的刺激方案最终只通过了不到8000亿。但要知道，这点小钱远远无法令经济快速复苏，接下来两年美国经济增长缓慢，就业市场复苏陷入停滞，奥巴马的民众支持率直线下降，很快在2010年中选输掉了众院，被共和党重新夺回了控制权。可以说，上一轮危机中，正是由于奥巴马政府不够强硬，不仅导致民主党失势，还使得美国经济在泥潭中陷得更久。拜登作为奥巴马当时的副手，显然对这次教训刻骨铭心。所以自己上台后一不做二不休，来个硬碰硬，生怕重蹈当年覆辙。那么量化宽松呢？从上面的事实看来，09年的QE是在财政政策被共和党束缚住手脚的情况下，美国做出的“次优选择”。而如今既然已经有了天量刺激，为什么鲍威尔还要坚持迟迟不退出QE？我们认为，大致有以下三个原因：第一，鲍威尔始终不认为会有真正的严重通胀压力。像不久前他在美国众议院金融服务委员会听证会上所说，全球性通缩已持续20多年，现在短短一次通胀，怎么就会失控呢？第二，即便有通胀压力，由于美元的储备货币地位，通胀带来的后果并不需要美国独自承担。我们会在后面说到这一点。第三，比起通胀压力，美联储更担心的是通缩预期。所谓通缩，就是通货膨胀率降到零以下，整个社会处在一个物价持续、普遍下降的环境之中。一旦人们有了价格持续下跌的预期，就会把想买的东西留到未来更便宜的时候去买。比如你想买房，现在是5w一平米，但你预计过两年就变成4w一平米了，那在条件允许的情况下，一定是两年后买入更划得来。对企业购买原料、进行投资也是一样的逻辑。这样一来，消费和投资欲望就被大大降低，手里钱再多也无济于事。美国GDP超六成来自消费，需求不够，生产自然也上不去，经济只能停滞不前，整个过程有多可怕，看看日本“失去的20年”就知道。短期来看，QE对缓解通缩预期绝对是一剂猛药。它只需要做一件事，就是推高资产价格，尤其是股市和楼市价格，从而给人们营造一番手头富裕，经济也欣欣向荣的假象。即便并没有转化成真实的现金流，人们也可能开开心心地进行更多的消费，进而刺激生产和经济复苏。这完全是个心理学问题，在财政政策配合下尤其行得通。但是，切勿把牛市和实体经济走强混为一谈，QE是否是饮鸩止渴，未来会否对经济形成反噬？这是后话，我们会在下面讲到。02、美国经济可能过热刚才我们解释了，美国这次财政、货币刺激的规模史无前例。那么这样的巨额刺激下，美国经济会发生什么呢？答案就是通胀上升，经济过热，而且过热程度可能比市场预期要严重得多。因为长时间、大规模的QE，不知不觉给了通胀巨大的上行空间。为了了解长期QE的影响，下面，我们首先最简单地解释一下央行货币政策进行宏观调控的整个传导路径；再回到一个没有QE的“史前”世界里，看看正常情况下货币政策体系是怎么运转的；如今有了QE，运转模式又发生了怎样的变化。我们常说央行撒钱，但钱肯定不是直接撒在人民群众身上的，而是首先撒给商业银行等各个金融机构，构成基础货币。方法有很多种，包括调节再贴现率、调节存款准备金率，和QE最相关的买卖政府债券也是其中之一，央行买进债券的同时付出去一笔钱，实质就是向金融系统注入一笔基础货币。紧接着，各个银行要么把这些钱投入实体经济，也就是通过贷款的方式借给企业和家庭，让他们进行生产和消费，促进经济增长；要么，如果大多数企业和家庭都不愿意借钱，剩下的钱就会以储蓄的形式滞留在银行体系内部，或是流入股市等金融市场，则一方面实体经济发展缺少资金驱动，另一方面金融市场又可能积累过量资金引发泡沫。在QE前的世界，货币政策在上面一条道路上走得非常顺畅，即美联储通过常规货币政策提供的流动性，能很好地传到企业和居民手里。经济衰退时，一边积极的财政政策稳住企业和居民的信心，一边央行降低政策利率，同时给银行业提供流动性；商业银行一有钱，居民和企业也被低利率和财政刺激鼓舞着，积极借钱买房和投资。一旦经济开始复苏，央行所要做的就是逐步提高政策利率，抑制信贷，从而防止通胀。于是从图上可以看出，基础货币、货币供应、银行信贷三条线教科书一般地同起同落，在此过程中，长期利率也随政策利率下降和回升。2008年前的美欧，1990年前的日本就是处于这种状态。但是QE打破了这一局面。刚才我们介绍过，08年房地产泡沫破裂后，由于财政刺激不给力，美国不得不一条腿走路，用货币政策QE释放大量的流动性，试图刺激内需，却在受到重创的家庭和企业面前收效甚微。抵押物价格暴跌之后，人们不仅不愿意借钱，反而还有大量债务等着还。于是，一边是随着QE扩大、利率下降到0，美国流动性来到前所未有的水平，基础货币占GDP比重从08年的6%上升到25%；另一边，人们握着巨额储蓄却不花出去，资金不仅没有以贷款形式离开银行业，还以储蓄和还贷形式回去了（第一张图），使得经济和通胀迟迟上不来（第二张图）。也就是说，如果整个货币体系仍然按照08年以前的模式运行，现在美国的通胀应该已经上升到很高的水平了。如果把央行撒的钱比作水，现在的价格就像是裹了一层胶质、难以进水的海绵，一旦胶质被剥离掉，海绵就会迅速吸水进而膨胀。于是我们可以看到一旦需求改善，人们开始恢复借款会发生什么：银行信贷和货币供应量都可能比现在高出好几倍，物价也可能随之大幅度攀升，那将意味着非常高的通胀。在这种预期之下，一旦经济出现复苏迹象，对通胀压力的高度紧张，就将加剧市场对流动性波动的恐慌。投资者担心，央行到时候将不得不减少债券购买乃至卖出长期债券，于是也纷纷抛售债券来规避风险，从而，QE国家长期利率也会比没有QE时以更快的速度上行，进一步对实体经济和股市、商品市场造成严重波动。QE持续时间越长，这些问题无疑也会越严重。野村证券首席研究员辜朝明曾在2013年美联储第三轮QE期间，提出了一个“量化宽松陷阱”（QE Trap）模型，讨论了长时间QE对经济的损伤程度：最初，QE国长期利率降幅要比非QE国大得多，意味着随后经济复苏更快(t1)。但随着经济的回暖，货币政策收紧，长期利率迅速攀升，部分利率敏感行业又面临需求下降，迫使央行重新放松政策立场。经济再次复苏后，随着市场又重新关注央行吸收超额准备金的可能性，长期利率在一个所谓“QE Trap”的重复周期中上行。相比之下，非QE国长期利率下降是渐进的，这延迟了复苏的开始(t2)；但一旦经济开始好转，由于利率较低，复苏步伐实际会更快。从美国疫情前逐步货币政策正常化的7年经验当中，我们也可以推出这一结论。美国上一轮QE是在2013年逐步退出的，但如果不退会发生什么？经济会更好吗？也许不会。当年美联储刚开始缩减购债的时候，通胀率只有1%，之后虽然9次加息、2017年10月又开始了量化紧缩（QT），通胀率却仍然在慢慢上升。深压住通胀的和让通胀维持缓慢上行的是同一个原因，那就是家庭和企业手里的储蓄始终没有得到消化，没有借钱，利率升高也就对他们造不成压力。这反过来说明，即便当时利率继续保持低位，经济活动也可能无动于衷。不仅如此，由于实体经济需求不足，继续QE反而可能导致大量闲钱进入房地产和金融市场，激起厚厚的资产泡沫。事实上，美国商业地产价格目前已经比2007年的上一个峰值高出了50%。重要的是，鉴于本轮QE比金融危机时已经迅猛得多，辜朝明在最近发布的研报中认为，美国经济已经半只脚踏进“量化宽松陷阱”中了，私营部门一旦恢复借款，通胀飙高、长债利率飙升乃是一触即发，届时将需要大幅提高政策利率来压制通胀。在70年代末那个没有QE的史前世界，美联储把政策利率大幅提高到22%来抑制通胀，如今又需要怎样的水平呢？03、美国放水，全球买单，这场大放水又会以怎样的方式收场？刚才我们谈了超级大放水对美国经济的影响。由于美元霸权的存在，美国经济政策的影响力绝不限于美国国内，通过一系列传导机制，美国这轮经济刺激影响极为深远，很有可能让全球都为美国人买单。而其中付出最大代价的可能还是新兴市场，这在历来都是如此，可能也是美国肆无忌惮大放水的原因之一。2020年，随着作为全球储备货币的美元流通量激增，各国纷纷开启了放水之路，以抵抗美国超发货币所引发的通胀，美国借此将通胀输出到全球。这在各国的房价涨幅上就有直接体现，OECD数据显示，去年全球89%国家的房价都在上涨，这一比例为2000年以来最高，土耳其、俄罗斯尤其上涨超过20%。而如今随着美国通胀预期的增强，美债收益率大幅走高，以及美国与新兴市场国家复苏节奏的错位，美元开始阶段性走强，并呈现出回流态势，局面完全反转。新兴市场被迫再次响应那句老话：美国人印钞票，全世界来买单。3月以来，新兴市场国家集体“抢跑”，赶在美联储行动之前提前加息。美国3月的议息会议前后的短短一周中，多个新兴市场国家纷纷掀起加息潮：3月17日巴西央行宣布上调基准贷款利率75个基点至2.75%（预期50个基点）。3月18日土耳其央行宣布将关键利率上调200个基点至19%（预期上调至18%）。3月19日俄罗斯央行宣布加息25个基点至4.50%（预期维持4.25%）。不仅如此，印度、阿根廷、马来西亚、泰国、韩国等新兴国家的指标均显示，市场对于加息的预期正在增强，今年至明年上半年至少加息一次。推动新兴市场国家加息的主要原因肯定是通胀的上行。而通胀的压力从普遍的分析来看还是自于供给端。一方面这类新兴市场国家下游消费品端的生产能力本身就薄弱，疫情的冲击便使得供需缺口扩大，直接体现到推升商品价格上。另一方面，这些国家的食品与交通类消费占比都在40-50%之上，且依赖于进出口，因而全球石油制品和食品价格的快速上行便进一步增加了新兴市场国家的输入性通胀压力。图：通胀水平达到目标政策区域这些具有高开放性和外贸依赖的新兴市场国家，很大程度上，只能被动接受发达国家经济和政策的溢出。然而，相对于通胀的上行，这些新兴国家的经济修复还处于一个相对偏慢的过程中，尤其是巴西和土耳其，失业率高企10%以上，同时对疫情的控制也再度面临考验。图：经济修复尚需时日与此同时，为了防止出现美元过快回流—本币贬值—恶性通胀—本国加息—资产价格下跌—外债暴露的恶性循环预期，新兴市场国家也不得不率先启动加息，一来抑制泡沫，二来稳定资本流出。图：去年各国货币相对美元最大升值幅度而那些外债比例高和资产市场涨幅明显的国家，或会付出更大的代价。今年以来土耳其隔夜拆借利率高企于15%以上，依然难以抑制国际资本流出，超预期加息后央行行长下台更引发恶性循环预期，资产价格暴跌，汇率崩盘。从外债来看接下来是智利、南非等。通胀偏高，尤其是资产价格涨幅偏高的国家，显示资本更多进入虚拟经济体而非实体经济复苏，也存在较大的资本流出风险。比如阿根廷、印度。这些国家加息更多是两害权其轻的操作，也没有太多货币政策的独立性可言。一旦出现资本流出较快，他们将为去年的流动性盛宴付出代价。美国呢，随着资金回流，美欧套利交易增加美债需求，美债利率上行压力反倒会有所缓解。图：欧美利差水平走阔至均值水平美元潮起潮落，中国作为最大的新兴市场国家，得益于国内的供给能力、流动性克制和货币独立，将抵御部分冲击，但是在全球性的风暴之下，资产价格压力难言缓和。或许货币可以超印，但财富不能，当我们以一个更宏观的视角看待全球货币现状，一个更深刻的命题是，如何用好自己的政策工具，作为个人又如何甄别好的资产，让自己的劳动报酬获得更稳健的保值。理解手中人民币的历史责任和其韬光养晦的价值，我们或许能在即将到来的风险中有所准备。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1574,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":376119967,"gmtCreate":1619097012059,"gmtModify":1704719577516,"author":{"id":"3536928846214760","authorId":"3536928846214760","name":"東海吉龍","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0ef8466588cf515f97a20c636e2be8a0","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3536928846214760","idStr":"3536928846214760"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"666","listText":"666","text":"666","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/376119967","repostId":"1129282939","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1129282939","kind":"news","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"为用户提供金融资讯、行情、数据，旨在帮助投资者理解世界，做投资决策。","home_visible":1,"media_name":"老虎资讯综合","id":"102","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba"},"pubTimestamp":1619094484,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1129282939?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2021-04-22 20:28","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"Pre-market: Cooperation with JD.COM Youxin skyrocketed, and the financial report was powerful and the future was \"restless\"","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1129282939","media":"老虎资讯综合","summary":"4月22日，美国三大股指下跌，截至发稿，道指期货跌0.05%；标普500指数期货跌0.11%；纳斯达克100指数期货跌0.25%。美国上周首次申领失业救济人数为万54.7人，预估为61万人，前值为57","content":"<p>On April 22nd, the three major stock indexes in the United States fell. As of press time, the Dow futures fell by 0.05%; S&P 500 futures fell 0.11%; Nasdaq 100 futures fell 0.25%. The number of initial claims for unemployment benefits in the United States last week was 54.7 million, compared with the estimate of 610,000, and the previous value of 576,000.<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a948444803dea28ccf37e01d20bba3c9\" tg-width=\"828\" tg-height=\"248\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><b>Today's big event, the climate summit of world leaders</b></p><p>At 20: 00 Beijing time on the 22nd, the leaders' climate summit hosted by the United States will be held in the form of video. According to information published on the White House website, the United States extended invitations to leaders of 40 countries. The official website of the US State Department announced the specific schedule of the climate summit on the 22nd.</p><p>The two-day summit will contain five agendas, covering topics such as improving determination to tackle climate change, climate resilience and resilience, climate security, innovative technologies to tackle climate change, and economic opportunities brought by tackling climate change.</p><p><b>Premarket Quotes</b></p><p>The U.S. hydrogen energy sector rose before the market,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/FCEL\">Fuel cell energy</a>rose by more than 4%,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/PLUG\">Pragg Energy</a>It rose more than 3%, and Bloom Energy rose 1.5%.</p><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/CS\">Credit Suisse</a>U.S. stocks fell more than 5% premarket, after<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/CS\">Credit Suisse</a>Announced a net loss of 252 million Swiss francs in the first quarter, and expected the Archegos incident to generate about 600 million Swiss francs for Credit Suisse in the second quarter<b>(about US$654 million)</b>Impact of. Separately, Credit Suisse plans to cut by the end of the year<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/IBOC\">International banking</a>Business exposure of at least $35 billion.</p><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/UXIN\">Uxin</a>Pre-market pull of used cars rose by more than 14%, after announcing that it was<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/JD\">Jingdong</a>Establish strategic partnerships.</p><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/CAN\">Canaan Technology</a>It rose more than 7% before the market and will provide 11,760 Bitcoin mining machines to Mawson.</p><p>AT&T shares rose more than 4% to $31.41 premarket. It is reported that AT&T announced its results for the first quarter of 2021. According to the data, the company's Q1 revenue was USD 43.939 billion, an increase of 2.7% from USD 42.779 billion in the same period of last year; Net income was $7.942 billion, compared to $4.963 billion a year earlier.</p><p>Nikola rose more than 3% premarket after announcing a<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TA\">TravelCenters of America</a>Enter a hydrogen fuel agreement.</p><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TAL\">TAL</a>It rose by more than 6% before the market, and the financial report showed: Q4 net revenue was USD 1.363 billion, a year-on-year increase of 58.9%; Full-year net revenue for fiscal 2021 was $4.496 billion, up 37.3% year-over-year.</p><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/300024\">Robot</a>Software company UiPath rose more than 4% before the market and closed 23.2% for the first time yesterday.</p><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AAL\">American Airlines</a>It rose more than 3% before the market, with revenue of $4.008 billion in Q1 2021, compared with market expectations of $4.05 billion and $8.515 billion in the same period last year. Q1 net income-$1.25 billion, market expectations-$1.762 billion, year-ago quarter-$2.241 billion.</p><p>Evolus, down more than 18% premarket, plans to publicly offer common shares.</p><p>Software company Tianrui (TDC.O) rose more than 28% before the market, and company executives said they expected revenue this quarter to exceed previous expectations.</p><p>Fisker fell more than 9% premarket after the stock was<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/GS\">Goldman Sachs</a>Downgraded to Sell.</p><p><b>European market</b></p><p>Major European stock indexes rose collectively. As of press time, Germany's DAX30 index rose 0.66%,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/VUKE.UK\">FTSE 100 UK</a>up 0.18%, and French CAC40 rose 0.68%.<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/85454e772ec1d010a5be19c31a63b732\" tg-width=\"819\" tg-height=\"355\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><b>crude oil</b></p><p>The U.S. and Brunei oil fluctuated and fell. As of press time, WTI crude oil fell 0.15% to $61.27/barrel; Brent crude oil fell 0.24% to $65.16/barrel.</p><p>The unexpected increase in crude oil inventories in the United States and the renewed surge in COVID-19 cases in India and Japan have raised concerns about the global economic recovery and possible stagnation of fuel demand. OPEC + sources said that the meeting of oil-producing countries to be held next week is largely technical and unlikely to make major changes to policy.</p><p><b>Gold</b></p><p>Spot gold fell. As of press time, it fell 0.53% to $1783.651784.05/oz.</p><p>The stock market continues to run at a high level, which limits the rally of gold price. The acceleration of vaccination in the United States also boosts the expectation of economic recovery, which will also drag gold down to some extent.</p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Pre-market: Cooperation with JD.COM Youxin skyrocketed, and the financial report was powerful and the future was \"restless\"</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nPre-market: Cooperation with JD.COM Youxin skyrocketed, and the financial report was powerful and the future was \"restless\"\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/102\">\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">老虎资讯综合 </p>\n<p class=\"h-time smaller\">2021-04-22 20:28</p>\n</div>\n</a>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>On April 22nd, the three major stock indexes in the United States fell. As of press time, the Dow futures fell by 0.05%; S&P 500 futures fell 0.11%; Nasdaq 100 futures fell 0.25%. The number of initial claims for unemployment benefits in the United States last week was 54.7 million, compared with the estimate of 610,000, and the previous value of 576,000.<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a948444803dea28ccf37e01d20bba3c9\" tg-width=\"828\" tg-height=\"248\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><b>Today's big event, the climate summit of world leaders</b></p><p>At 20: 00 Beijing time on the 22nd, the leaders' climate summit hosted by the United States will be held in the form of video. According to information published on the White House website, the United States extended invitations to leaders of 40 countries. The official website of the US State Department announced the specific schedule of the climate summit on the 22nd.</p><p>The two-day summit will contain five agendas, covering topics such as improving determination to tackle climate change, climate resilience and resilience, climate security, innovative technologies to tackle climate change, and economic opportunities brought by tackling climate change.</p><p><b>Premarket Quotes</b></p><p>The U.S. hydrogen energy sector rose before the market,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/FCEL\">Fuel cell energy</a>rose by more than 4%,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/PLUG\">Pragg Energy</a>It rose more than 3%, and Bloom Energy rose 1.5%.</p><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/CS\">Credit Suisse</a>U.S. stocks fell more than 5% premarket, after<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/CS\">Credit Suisse</a>Announced a net loss of 252 million Swiss francs in the first quarter, and expected the Archegos incident to generate about 600 million Swiss francs for Credit Suisse in the second quarter<b>(about US$654 million)</b>Impact of. Separately, Credit Suisse plans to cut by the end of the year<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/IBOC\">International banking</a>Business exposure of at least $35 billion.</p><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/UXIN\">Uxin</a>Pre-market pull of used cars rose by more than 14%, after announcing that it was<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/JD\">Jingdong</a>Establish strategic partnerships.</p><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/CAN\">Canaan Technology</a>It rose more than 7% before the market and will provide 11,760 Bitcoin mining machines to Mawson.</p><p>AT&T shares rose more than 4% to $31.41 premarket. It is reported that AT&T announced its results for the first quarter of 2021. According to the data, the company's Q1 revenue was USD 43.939 billion, an increase of 2.7% from USD 42.779 billion in the same period of last year; Net income was $7.942 billion, compared to $4.963 billion a year earlier.</p><p>Nikola rose more than 3% premarket after announcing a<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TA\">TravelCenters of America</a>Enter a hydrogen fuel agreement.</p><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TAL\">TAL</a>It rose by more than 6% before the market, and the financial report showed: Q4 net revenue was USD 1.363 billion, a year-on-year increase of 58.9%; Full-year net revenue for fiscal 2021 was $4.496 billion, up 37.3% year-over-year.</p><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/300024\">Robot</a>Software company UiPath rose more than 4% before the market and closed 23.2% for the first time yesterday.</p><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AAL\">American Airlines</a>It rose more than 3% before the market, with revenue of $4.008 billion in Q1 2021, compared with market expectations of $4.05 billion and $8.515 billion in the same period last year. Q1 net income-$1.25 billion, market expectations-$1.762 billion, year-ago quarter-$2.241 billion.</p><p>Evolus, down more than 18% premarket, plans to publicly offer common shares.</p><p>Software company Tianrui (TDC.O) rose more than 28% before the market, and company executives said they expected revenue this quarter to exceed previous expectations.</p><p>Fisker fell more than 9% premarket after the stock was<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/GS\">Goldman Sachs</a>Downgraded to Sell.</p><p><b>European market</b></p><p>Major European stock indexes rose collectively. As of press time, Germany's DAX30 index rose 0.66%,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/VUKE.UK\">FTSE 100 UK</a>up 0.18%, and French CAC40 rose 0.68%.<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/85454e772ec1d010a5be19c31a63b732\" tg-width=\"819\" tg-height=\"355\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><b>crude oil</b></p><p>The U.S. and Brunei oil fluctuated and fell. As of press time, WTI crude oil fell 0.15% to $61.27/barrel; Brent crude oil fell 0.24% to $65.16/barrel.</p><p>The unexpected increase in crude oil inventories in the United States and the renewed surge in COVID-19 cases in India and Japan have raised concerns about the global economic recovery and possible stagnation of fuel demand. OPEC + sources said that the meeting of oil-producing countries to be held next week is largely technical and unlikely to make major changes to policy.</p><p><b>Gold</b></p><p>Spot gold fell. As of press time, it fell 0.53% to $1783.651784.05/oz.</p><p>The stock market continues to run at a high level, which limits the rally of gold price. The acceleration of vaccination in the United States also boosts the expectation of economic recovery, which will also drag gold down to some extent.</p>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ed4ee39e6b0f45214393093d70ba81a8","relate_stocks":{"159945":"能源",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index",".DJI":"道琼斯","TAL":"好未来",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite","PLUG":"普拉格能源"},"is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1129282939","content_text":"4月22日，美国三大股指下跌，截至发稿，道指期货跌0.05%；标普500指数期货跌0.11%；纳斯达克100指数期货跌0.25%。美国上周首次申领失业救济人数为万54.7人，预估为61万人，前值为57.6万人。今天大事件，世界领导人气候峰会北京时间22日20时，美国主办的领导人气候峰会将以视频形式举行。据白宫网站公布的信息显示，美国向40个国家的领导人发出了邀请。美国国务院官网于22日公布了此次气候峰会的具体日程安排。此次峰会会期两天，包含5项议程，讨论的主题涉及提高应对气候变化的决心、气候适应能力与韧性、气候安全、应对气候变化的创新技术、应对气候变化带来的经济机会等。盘前行情美股氢能源板块盘前走高，燃料电池能源涨超4%，普拉格能源涨超3%，Bloom Energy涨1.5%。瑞士信贷美股盘前跌超5%，此前瑞士信贷公布财报，第一季净亏损2.52亿瑞郎 ，并预计Archegos事件还将在第二季度对瑞信产生约6亿瑞郎（约合6.54亿美元）的影响。另外，瑞信计划在年底前削减国际银行业务至少350亿美元的风险敞口。优信二手车盘前拉升涨超14%，此前宣布与京东建立战略合作关系。嘉楠科技盘前涨超7%，将向Mawson提供11760台比特币挖矿机。AT&T盘前股价涨超4%，报31.41美元。据悉，AT&T公布了2021年第一季度业绩，数据显示，该公司Q1营收439.39亿美元，较上年同期427.79亿美元增长2.7%;净利润79.42亿美元，上年同期为49.63亿美元。Nikola盘前涨超3%，此前宣布与TravelCenters of America签订氢燃料协议。好未来盘前涨超6%，财报显示：Q4净营收13.63亿美元，同比增长58.9%；2021财年全年净营收44.96亿美元，同比增长37.3%。机器人软件公司UiPath盘前涨超4%，昨日首挂收涨23.2%。美国航空盘前涨超3%，2021年Q1营收40.08亿美元，市场预期40.5亿美元，去年同期85.15亿美元。Q1净利润-12.5亿美元，市场预期-17.62亿美元，去年同期-22.41亿美元。Evolus盘前跌超18%，计划公开发行普通股。软件公司天睿(TDC.O)盘前涨超28%，公司高管表示预计本季度营收将超出此前预期。Fisker盘前跌超9%，此前该股被高盛下调评级至卖出。欧洲市场欧洲主要股指集体上涨，截至发稿，德国DAX30指数涨0.66%，英国富时100涨0.18%、法国CAC40涨0.68%。原油美、布两油震荡下跌，截止发稿，WTI原油跌0.15%，报61.27美元/桶；布伦特原油跌0.24%，报65.16美元/桶。因美国原油库存意外增加，且印度和日本新冠病例再次激增，引发对全球经济复苏及燃料需求可能停滞的担忧。OPEC+消息人士称，下周将要召开的产油国会议主要是技术性的，不太可能对政策做出重大改变。黄金现货黄金上跌，截止发稿，跌0.53%，报1783.651784.05美元/盎司。股市继续高位运行限制了金价的涨势，美国疫苗接种速度加快也提振了经济复苏的预期，对黄金也会产生一定的拖累。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"159945":0.9,".DJI":0.9,"PLUG":0.9,".SPX":0.9,"TAL":0.9,".IXIC":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1248,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":376137181,"gmtCreate":1619096969843,"gmtModify":1704719574594,"author":{"id":"3536928846214760","authorId":"3536928846214760","name":"東海吉龍","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0ef8466588cf515f97a20c636e2be8a0","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3536928846214760","idStr":"3536928846214760"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"666","listText":"666","text":"666","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/376137181","repostId":"1155546663","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1155546663","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1619095566,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1155546663?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2021-04-22 20:46","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"Just now, Tesla provided driving data! Reversing the truth?","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1155546663","media":"中国证券报  ","summary":"特斯拉方面确认，已经将相关行车数据提供给了消费者。\n4月22日，特斯拉相关负责人向中国证券报记者表示，特斯拉方面已经把事发前半小时的车辆原始数据邮件发给张女士及家人。由于张女士目前还处在行拘状态，电话","content":"<p><div>Tesla confirmed that it has provided relevant driving data to consumers. On April 22nd, the relevant person in charge of Tesla told china securities journal that Tesla had sent the original vehicle data email half an hour before the incident to Ms. Zhang and her family. As Ms. Zhang is still in detention, the phone has not been answered, and the company sent the data to the customer by email. At the same time, China Market Supervision News, which is in charge of the State Administration for Market Regulation, published the data of one minute before the vehicle accident, and made a written explanation. The full text of this note reads as follows: When the driver presses the brake pedal for the last time...</p><p><a href=\"https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s/W4yHqJTPEOinQf-KwSaXGw\">Web link</a></div></p>","source":"zgzqb","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Just now, Tesla provided driving data! Reversing the truth?</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nJust now, Tesla provided driving data! Reversing the truth?\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">中国证券报  </strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-04-22 20:46</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><div>Tesla confirmed that it has provided relevant driving data to consumers. On April 22nd, the relevant person in charge of Tesla told china securities journal that Tesla had sent the original vehicle data email half an hour before the incident to Ms. Zhang and her family. As Ms. Zhang is still in detention, the phone has not been answered, and the company sent the data to the customer by email. At the same time, China Market Supervision News, which is in charge of the State Administration for Market Regulation, published the data of one minute before the vehicle accident, and made a written explanation. The full text of this note reads as follows: When the driver presses the brake pedal for the last time...</p><p><a href=\"https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s/W4yHqJTPEOinQf-KwSaXGw\">Web link</a></div></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> source：<a href=\"https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s/W4yHqJTPEOinQf-KwSaXGw\">中国证券报  </a></p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8350896f4f33c86bc28f200b67ab82b4","relate_stocks":{"TSLA":"特斯拉"},"source_url":"https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s/W4yHqJTPEOinQf-KwSaXGw","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1155546663","content_text":"特斯拉方面确认，已经将相关行车数据提供给了消费者。\n4月22日，特斯拉相关负责人向中国证券报记者表示，特斯拉方面已经把事发前半小时的车辆原始数据邮件发给张女士及家人。由于张女士目前还处在行拘状态，电话一直没有接，公司通过邮箱将数据发给了客户。\n同时，国家市场监督管理总局主管的中国市场监管报公开了车辆发生事故前一分钟的数据，并作出一份文字说明。\n这份文字说明全文如下：\n在驾驶员最后一次踩下制动踏板时，数据显示，车辆时速为118.5千米每小时。在驾驶员踩下制动踏板后的2.7秒内，最大制动主缸压力仅为45.9bar，之后驾驶员加大踩下制动踏板的幅度，制动主缸压力达到了92.7bar，紧接着前撞预警及自动紧急制动功能启动（最大制动主缸压力达到了140.7bar）并发挥了作用，减轻了碰撞的幅度，ABS作用之后的1.8秒，系统记录了碰撞的发生。驾驶员踩下制动踏板后，车速持续降低，发生碰撞前，车速降低至48.5千米每小时。\n来源：中国市场监管报\n综上所述，车辆以较高速度行驶，驾驶员开始踩下制动踏板力度较轻，之后，自动紧急制动功能启动并发挥了作用，提升了制动力并减轻了碰撞的冲击力，制动系统均正常介入工作并降低了车速。\n另外，关于事故发生前30分钟车辆的状况，特斯拉方面是这样叙述的：在车辆发生事故前的30分钟内，驾驶员正常驾驶车辆，有超过40次踩下制动踏板的记录。同时车辆有多次超过100千米每小时和多次刹停的情况发生。\n特斯拉相关负责人表示，将毫无保留地配合监管部门开展深入调查，开诚布公接受社会监督。\n特斯拉称愿意全力配合\n4月19日，上海车展首日，一女子站在一辆特斯拉Model3车顶高呼“特斯拉刹车失灵”。随后，该女子被保安抬走。\n4月21日晚间，国家市场监管总局网站发布消息称，已责成河南省、上海市等地市场监督管理部门依法维护消费者合法权益。\n同日，郑东新区市场监管局责令特斯拉汽车销售服务（郑州）有限公司无条件向张女士提供该车发生事故前半小时完整行车数据。\n特斯拉发声表示，愿意全力配合，提供事发前半小时的车辆原始数据给第三方鉴定机构或政府指定的技术监督部门或者消费者。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"TSLA":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1237,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":347107491,"gmtCreate":1618472351713,"gmtModify":1704711346866,"author":{"id":"3536928846214760","authorId":"3536928846214760","name":"東海吉龍","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0ef8466588cf515f97a20c636e2be8a0","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3536928846214760","idStr":"3536928846214760"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"123","listText":"123","text":"123","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/347107491","repostId":"2127003956","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"2127003956","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1618468860,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/2127003956?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2021-04-15 14:41","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"Tesla's frequent brake failures may trigger a sales crisis","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2127003956","media":"财经网","summary":"4月11日，上海一停车场又现特斯拉刹车失灵事件。从已被媒体公开曝光的消息来看，自2020年至今，特斯拉汽车刹车失灵事件发生十起有余。在网络搜索引擎上，敲入“特斯拉刹车失灵”字样，显示结果多达567万条，以及近期发生的数起相关事故。2020年6月，江西南昌一辆特斯拉Model X因刹车失灵发生撞击事故后起火。据了解，对于刹车失灵引发的事故原因，特斯拉官方尚未给出过正面而详实的公开回应。","content":"<p><div>On April 11th, Tesla's brake failure occurred in a parking lot in Shanghai. According to public information, Mr. Liu, the owner of the incident, said that the car couldn't stop when it turned in the garage until it hit the wall and was forced to stop. Tesla responded that the ABS started and slid because the ground friction was too low, and the accident is still under further investigation. Judging from the news that has been publicly exposed by the media, since 2020, there have been more than ten incidents of brake failure in Tesla cars. For more than a year, such incidents have occurred frequently in Jiangxi, Shanghai, Zhejiang, Sichuan, Beijing, Jiangsu, Shenzhen and other places nationwide. And Tesla's official response to such...</p><p><a href=\"http://gu.qq.com/resources/shy/news/detail-v2/index.html#/?id=nesSN20210415144139787bc447&s=b\">Web link</a></div></p>","source":"tencent","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Tesla's frequent brake failures may trigger a sales crisis</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nTesla's frequent brake failures may trigger a sales crisis\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">财经网</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-04-15 14:41</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><div>On April 11th, Tesla's brake failure occurred in a parking lot in Shanghai. According to public information, Mr. Liu, the owner of the incident, said that the car couldn't stop when it turned in the garage until it hit the wall and was forced to stop. Tesla responded that the ABS started and slid because the ground friction was too low, and the accident is still under further investigation. Judging from the news that has been publicly exposed by the media, since 2020, there have been more than ten incidents of brake failure in Tesla cars. For more than a year, such incidents have occurred frequently in Jiangxi, Shanghai, Zhejiang, Sichuan, Beijing, Jiangsu, Shenzhen and other places nationwide. And Tesla's official response to such...</p><p><a href=\"http://gu.qq.com/resources/shy/news/detail-v2/index.html#/?id=nesSN20210415144139787bc447&s=b\">Web link</a></div></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> source：<a href=\"http://gu.qq.com/resources/shy/news/detail-v2/index.html#/?id=nesSN20210415144139787bc447&s=b\">财经网</a></p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b4edcd70007a48ee832e76f61e110854","relate_stocks":{"TSLA":"特斯拉"},"source_url":"http://gu.qq.com/resources/shy/news/detail-v2/index.html#/?id=nesSN20210415144139787bc447&s=b","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/9a95c1376e76363c1401fee7d3717173","article_id":"2127003956","content_text":"4月11日，上海一停车场又现特斯拉刹车失灵事件。\n公开资料显示，事发车主刘先生称车子是在车库拐弯时刹不住，直至撞到墙面后逼停。\n特斯拉回应称：因地面摩擦力太低导致ABS启动有滑行，目前事故仍在进一步调查处理中。\n从已被媒体公开曝光的消息来看，自2020年至今，特斯拉汽车刹车失灵事件发生十起有余。一年多时间里，此类事件在全国范围内江西、上海、浙江、四川、北京、江苏、深圳等多地频发。而特斯拉官方对此类事故原因，多数并未给出内容详实的确切回应。\n\n在业内人士看来，短时间内相对高密度的刹车失灵事故“扎堆”，着实挑战着消费者对特斯拉汽车安全品质的信任感，特斯拉的品控危机或将对其在扩张抢占市场中的销量表现带来严重的负面影响。\n多次上演的刹车失灵\n财经网汽车注意到，本次发生在上海的特斯拉“刹车失灵”直接撞墙事件，已经在多个地方发生。\n在网络搜索引擎上，敲入“特斯拉刹车失灵”字样，显示结果多达567万条，以及近期发生的数起相关事故。\n2020年6月，江西南昌一辆特斯拉Model X因刹车失灵发生撞击事故后起火。车主称，事故发生前车辆突然提速到127km/h，发生撞击前他已在刹车失灵的情况下，先后躲避了四五十台车，勉强行驶了8公里。\n同年9月，在四川南充，51岁的刘女士驾驶的特斯拉疑似失控，造成多车连撞，2死6伤及多车受损。12月，深圳一辆正常行驶的特斯拉突然加速追尾一辆出租车，并再次加速撞上一辆货车后被阻停。车主称，刹车失灵的同时方向盘也无法操控。\n另有公开信息显示，今年3月11日，特斯拉model 3在海南也出现了刹车失灵并撞车的状况。值得玩味的是，官方工作人员复现时，在30KM的时速下亦出现刹车失灵引发撞车。对此特斯拉的回复是：地面湿滑，制动踏板踩得轻。ABS功能失效。\n据了解，对于刹车失灵引发的事故原因，特斯拉官方尚未给出过正面而详实的公开回应。\n事故频发或与自动驾驶辅助功能有关\n财经网汽车注意到，梳理特斯拉刹车失灵的事故案例，出现了有关Autopilot自动驾驶功能是否开启的讨论。\n据了解，目前特斯拉旗下的Model X、Model S、Model 3都可以实现Autopoilot功能。在特斯拉CEO埃隆·马斯克的描述中，该系统功能被视为核心竞争优势，或可理解为精髓承载。\n该系统最早可追溯到2013年，其由马斯克由航空领域借用了航空领域Autopoilot自动导航名称，将此理念立为招牌。2016年，马斯克接受采访时称要打造“全自动驾驶”。四年后，特斯拉FSD被推出。\n美国汽车工程师协会（SAE）将汽车驾驶的自动化级别，按车辆功能及控制权/责任归属，自L0-l5做了明确细分：L0为无自动化、L1辅助驾驶、L2部分自动驾驶、L3有条件自动驾驶、L4高度自动驾驶、L5完全自动驾驶。\n在特斯拉的中文手册中，Atuopoilot曾被解释为“自动驾驶”，后因事故频发其改为“自动辅助驾驶功能”。而FSD则是Full Self-Driving的英文简写，即“完全自动驾驶”。\n据相关业公开资料显示，目前为止无论是Autopoilot还是FSD，均未达L3级别标准。L3是自动驾驶的起点标准，而L1/2通常被概称为驾驶辅助。\n由此，特斯拉曾被一些第三方机构质疑过度宣传。\n据不完全统计，涉及特斯拉的伤亡事故中，驾驶员过度信赖其自动辅助驾驶功能的原因占有一定比重。\n有行业人士指出，国内所有特斯拉车型配备的自动辅助驾驶功能目前仍不可脱离驾驶员的实时监控。\n质量问题或将引发销量危机\n另一方面，特斯拉的自动驾驶辅助功能，也被一些独立机构认为技术水准并不出众。\n财经网汽车了解到，美国Navigant Research公司对自动驾驶领域企业实力进行了排名。\n该公司参考了各企业市场发展策略、产品质量与可靠性、技术、产能、产品策略等十个维度的考量依据，在横竖坐标分别为策略能力、执行能力的坐标系中划分排名，并将参与企业划分为领导者、竞争者、挑战者及跟随者四个档次。结果显示，谷歌Waymo是其中的佼佼者，而与强势宣传效果不同的是，特斯拉在这份排名中的表现并不出众。\n2020年特斯拉完成50万辆的交付目标。特别是迈入2021年，特斯拉摆脱了以往因产能不足引发“订单压顶”的掣肘，尤其是以Model Y亮相为契机大打价格战，准备以最快速度抢占市场份额。\n而这一过程中，特斯拉被指对于相关细节品质，某种程度上并不重视。\n对此有专家表示，汽车市场已然发生变化，如若特斯拉继续为了大规模抢占市场而放纵品控底线，忽略消费者的愤怒，或将影响市场信赖度，长期销量目标也将难以为继。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"TSLA":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":812,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":347107819,"gmtCreate":1618472263931,"gmtModify":1704711346221,"author":{"id":"3536928846214760","authorId":"3536928846214760","name":"東海吉龍","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0ef8466588cf515f97a20c636e2be8a0","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3536928846214760","idStr":"3536928846214760"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"666","listText":"666","text":"666","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/347107819","repostId":"1111977847","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1111977847","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1618472047,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1111977847?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2021-04-15 15:34","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"Dismantling TuSimple: 6 Questions to Understand the World's First Autonomous Driving Stock","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1111977847","media":"甲子光年","summary":"文/高雅\n就在今天晚上，“全球自动驾驶第一股”要来了。如果不出意外，美东时间4月15日，图森未来（以下简称“图森”）将在纳斯达克上市，股票代码TSP。\n与此前看客们的期待不同，“全球自动驾驶第一股”率","content":"<p>Text/Gao Ya</p><p>Just this evening, \"the first stock of autonomous driving in the world\" is coming. If nothing else, on April 15th EST, TuSimple Future (hereinafter referred to as \"TuSimple\") will be listed on Nasdaq under the stock code TSP.</p><p>Different from the previous expectations of spectators, the hands of truck drivers were the first to liberate \"the first self-driving stock in the world\". On March 23rd this year, Tucson, an autonomous truck company, submitted an IPO application; On the 7th of this month, it further determined the price range and number of stock offerings.</p><p>With the listing, TuSimple is preparing to issue 33.78 million ADS shares, including 27.02 million shares issued by the company and existing shareholders<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/SINA\">SINA</a>6.75 million shares sold. Tucson's identified offering price range is $35 to $39. According to previous disclosure, Tucson hopes to raise $800-1 billion. If it goes public smoothly, Tucson's overall valuation will be about $5-7 billion.</p><p>Some analysts believe that Tucson is likely to be able to sell an additional $1 billion of stock \"because investors have an appetite\". The financing of the autonomous driving track is hot at present. According to the previous exclusive news of \"Jiazi Guangnian\", Xidi Zhijia, an autonomous driving company, completed two financing in three months, and the latest round of financing far exceeded the plan. Xidi Zhijia is just a microcosm of the whole track. In the first two months of 2021 alone, there have been 24 investment and financing events in the autonomous driving industry, and the total amount of investment and financing disclosed is 17.64 billion yuan.</p><p>With Tucson's listing, Nasdaq will also welcome the world's first self-driving company to go public. Autopilot's close encounter with the stock market kicks off. In the competition to go public, Tucson succeeded in stealing the lead.</p><p>\"Jiazi Lightyear\" disassembled Tucson's prospectus to see what kind of enterprise it is:</p><p>The driverless track is hot, and this is a good time to land in the secondary market. Tucson succeeded in stealing;</p><p>To seize the first stock of autonomous driving in the world, Tucson is to prepare food and grass for the follow-up business. According to its plan, Tucson will expand its autonomous freight network (AFN) throughout the continental United States by 2024;</p><p>For the use of funds raised from the listing, there is no R&D and product investment in Tucson's current plan;</p><p>Compared with the passenger track, the driverless truck market seems to be a blue ocean. However, the technology landing and commercialization have only started, and the marathon has only started;</p><p>Tucson is still losing money and has no current plans to make a profit;</p><p>Tucson's largest outside shareholder is Sun Dream Inc., an affiliate of Sina. How did this established Internet company vote for an autonomous driving company? Intriguing.</p><p><b>1. Who is Tucson?</b></p><p>Tucson is a driverless truck brand. Founded in September 2015, it wants to empower the global logistics and transportation industry through artificial intelligence.</p><p>The company declares that its vision is to revolutionize the roughly $4 trillion global trucking market. Of that, the total U.S. freight market generates $100 million in annual revenue, and truck freight accounts for another 80%, according to the report by consulting firm Armstrong & Assocates. The United States is Tucson's main market right now.</p><p>To achieve this goal, Tucson has developed technologies for semi-trucks, namely commercial L4 autonomous driving solutions based on computer vision, unmanned transportation solutions for high-speed scenarios and container trucks in ports, and Autonomous Freight Network (AFN), which Tucson believes will make long-distance trucking safer, more reliable, more efficient and environmentally friendly.</p><p>The so-called L4 level unmanned driving (High Automation) means that the vehicle can automatically plan the driving route and avoid traffic congestion under the control of the travel computer, and the vehicle owner can not intervene in the operation.</p><p>In 2020, Tucson earned $1.84 million; In 2018 that figure was $9,000. In fact, similar companies of autonomous driving have ushered in good days recently. In addition to the gradual maturity of technology and the general increase in acceptance, the epidemic has reduced contact between people.</p><p>The current \"Tucson Future Co., Ltd.\", formerly known as \"Beijing Tucson Internet Technology Co., Ltd.\" In 2017, the company changed its name to \"TuSimple Future\", and its business also shifted from providing technical services to autonomous driving. At that time, the founder Chen Mo took a fancy to the fiery autonomous driving. Chen Mo advertises himself as \"a pragmatist\" and will choose the path closest to money.</p><p>This is also Chen Mo's fifth venture. Before founding Tucson, Chen Mo participated in the operation of three companies, namely Cangqiong Advertising (a building advertising platform), Deep Blue Brothers (page game chess and card platform) and Cheguo.com (automobile O2O trading platform). However, starting a business requires a little luck in addition to taking the lead. The first three ventures collapsed in the middle until there was Tucson.</p><p>Tucson's technical background comes from another founding member, CTO Hou Xiaodi, who is a PhD in computing and nervous system at Caltech. He founded the theory of visual attention mechanism based on frequency domain, which is called the prototype of \"campus hacker\" by the media.</p><p><b>2. Why did you choose a truck?</b></p><p>Autonomous driving can be divided into passenger domain and commercial domain. The half-card selected by Tucson belongs to the commercial domain of driverless driving. Domestic analysts often regard Tucson, Zhijia and Pony Zhixing as the \"three treasures of new forces\" in the unmanned freight market.</p><p>The market space of passenger cars is far larger than that of commercial vehicles. Chen Mo once told the media that their (passenger car) market is nearly 10 times that of ours. This has created a more crowded track in the passenger segment. An entrepreneur in the autonomous driving industry told \"Jiazi Guangnian\" that before<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/GOOG\">Google</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BIDU\">Baidu</a>Entrepreneurs who come out of the direction of autonomous driving will give priority to passenger car projects. For example, Wang Jin, founder of Wenyuan Zhixing (formerly Jingchi Technology), and Lou Tiancheng, founder of Pony Zhixing, both chose the passenger field.</p><p>However, because passenger cars are directly related to people, safety issues have become a higher threshold, which makes it more difficult to land and commercialize them. In 2018, he made efforts in autonomous driving in the passenger car field<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/V03.SI\">Startups</a>Many of them haven't made it to this day.</p><p>Relatively speaking, the commercial field is actually better to land. Chris Urmson, the founder of Aurora and the pioneer of Google's self-driving car, once explained: If you have a person in the back seat of your self-driving, you will have a lot of worries. If it is followed by a roll of toilet paper, it will be much less difficult to achieve.</p><p>At the same time, as far as the unmanned truck market is concerned, the market space is actually not small. McKinsey's data gives corroboration: By leveraging driverless van systems, the overall operating costs of the U.S. trucking industry will decrease by about 45%, saving about $85 billion to $125 billion. In China, the situation is exactly the same. In the recruitment section of its official website, Tucson described its business as \"an industry worth $800 billion\".</p><p>There are relatively few competitors in the unmanned truck freight market. Sam Abuelsamid, chief research analyst at Guidehouse Insights and senior Forbes contributor, once said of Tucson: In the AV (self-driving) truck industry, they're certainly one of the leaders, if not one.</p><p>It's a fairly small group. In order to avoid the fierce competition of passenger cars, some self-driving enterprises have also turned to truck freight. Since April 2019, Pony.ai has also begun to develop the truck freight market, after focusing on the passenger car market.</p><p><b>3. What to attract investors?</b></p><p>In the process of capital markets, Tucson jumped ahead. Zhijia Technology is a direct competitor of Tucson. Bloomberg previously reported that Zhijia wanted to go public by SPAC in early 2021, but so far there has been no new progress.</p><p>\"Preemption\" is also very Chen Mo's style. Earlier, when he had a phone call with Yuan Hongming, chairman of Shaanxi Automobile, he said: If others do it first, if you take a step slower, wouldn't the market be occupied?</p><p>What does Tucson, a successful one, rely on to attract investors in the secondary market? Transforming the truck market isn't all that sexy, and driverless driving isn't something familiar.</p><p>One of the cards Tucson has played is high growth. In 2020, it received more than 5,700 intended pre-orders, and its finance income increased by 160% year-on-year. However, this is because the base is relatively small, and even for the whole of 2020, Tucson's total revenue was only $1.843 million.</p><p>Possible future growth is the greater temptation given by Tucson. In 2020, TuSimple launched the world's first driverless freight network (AFN), which is the basis for its commercialization. It says this in its prospectus: We expect to map the entire 46,000-mile U.S. interstate highway system by 2024.</p><p>That said, in 3 years, its AFN route will be 16 times that of today, when L4 autonomous semi-trucks can be seen on major transportation routes in all 48 states in the United States. But only if the plan goes through smoothly.</p><p>If you look at the use of the funds raised, it is difficult to judge how Tucson will promote its above-mentioned plan. According to the prospectus disclosure, Tucson will mainly use the funds raised by the IPO for the following three aspects: improving financial flexibility and visibility in the market, and hopes to use the net proceeds from this offering for working capital and other general corporate purposes.</p><p>The financing purpose of autonomous driving companies, the common destination of funds is to expand the team, promote products and help research and development. For example, the latest round of financing of $500 million by autonomous driving company Momenta is mainly used for product strategy, pushing its product \"flywheel\" further afield; The financing of Zhijia Technology in February this year will be placed on strengthening cooperation, mainly for building a sound sales and support network; Funding from self-driving delivery company Nuro last November will be used to scale up the team and manufacturing. Tucson apparently did not choose this regular route.</p><p><b>4. What about commercialization capabilities?</b></p><p>In the prospectus, Tucson said it was \"the first and only company\" to implement L4-level truck autonomy technology on highways and surface streets.</p><p>However, \"Jiazi Guangnian\" found that if \"highways\", \"ground streets\" and \"trucks\" are not limited, there are still many families that say that they have realized L4 autonomous driving technology, each with its own scenes. For example, Pony Zhixing demonstrated the software and hardware system of L4 autonomous heavy truck in November last year.</p><p>In addition, the advantages highlighted by TuSimple in the prospectus include: 28,000 miles (about 4.506 million kilometers) of road test kilometers, cooperation with tier 1 component suppliers (including major operators such as Schneider Nation, U.S. Xpress and Werner Enterprises), and semi-truck OEMs Navistar and TRATON to jointly build an autonomous freight ecosystem, and so on.</p><p>This is not without doubt. People in the domestic autonomous driving industry asked: In this case, why didn't Tucson provide services to domestic companies? \"The policy environment between China and the United States is different on the one hand. Autonomous driving also depends on the technology of wire control, and whether the technical capability of wire control is enough is on the other.\"</p><p>At this stage, in fact, no company can really realize commercialization, and the players in the industry are competing more for the potential of commercialization.</p><p>Pre-order has become one of the important indicators to measure commercialization. One of the highlights in Tucson's prospectus is that it secured more than 5,700 intended pre-orders in 4 months. However, like Tucson, Zhijia has also received pre-orders. According to the latest news, PlusDrive (Zhijia Technology Commercial Vehicle Autonomous Driving System) has received more than 10,000 pre-orders for deployment by large fleets and heavy truck OEMs. The delivery time of Zhijia is set for 2021.</p><p>Car companies are running desperately, trying to seize the opportunity. According to the mass production schedule of autonomous driving models given in the Intelligent Connected Vehicle Technology Roadmap 2.0 released in November last year, it is a large-scale application of highly autonomous driving technology by 2030. That said, the official plan to achieve the L4 is about 10 years away.</p><p>Even if car companies have developed autonomous vehicles with L4 and above, the responsibility allocation rules for L4 and above are still being explored in countries around the world. This is also a hurdle that commercialization needs to overcome.</p><p><b>5. There is no timeline yet for earnings</b></p><p>Not only Tucson, but the marathon of the entire industry of autonomous driving has only taken its first step. In terms of profitability, TuSimple's statement in the prospectus is: There is no plan yet.</p><p>Like most tech companies, TuSimple is still in the red. According to TuSimple's prospectus, as of December 31, 2020, TuSimple recorded a total loss of US$405.2 million (approximately RMB2.64 billion) in five years, and a loss of US$177.9 million (approximately RMB1.16 billion) in 2020 alone. From 2018 to 2020, Tucson's annual net loss was about twice that of the previous year.</p><p>It is highly likely that the loss will continue. Chen Mo once said that it would take about $1 billion to make money by driverless truck freight.</p><p>The AFN ecosystem is currently still in the early stages of development and commercialization, and there is still some way to go before it can be profitable. In 2020, TuSimple's surge in full-year revenue was closely related to those more than 5,700 undelivered pre-orders, but about 75% of these orders were placed by customers who operate commercial truck fleets, and there is still a distance from truly market-oriented operation.</p><p>Autonomous driving is an industry that requires continuous investment in research and development and maintaining innovation capabilities. According to PitchBook, a research firm, startups in the autonomous driving industry spend an average of $1.6 million (equivalent to 105.1 billion yuan) a month. Han Xu, CEO of Wenyuan Zhixing, also revealed the company's spending rate: $300 million in three years and $500 million in five years.</p><p>Currently, 673 of Tucson's 839 employees are R&D personnel, accounting for 80%. From 2018 to 2020, the company's R&D expenditure was US$32.278 million, US$63.619 million and US$132 million respectively, accounting for more than 70% of the total expenditure, and there is a slight upward trend.</p><p>As the commercialization process unfolds, operating costs may continue to increase, which may delay<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/06838\">When profitable</a>From. During the three years from 2018 to 2020, TuSimple's marketing expenses were $1.085,000, $814,000, and $1.313,000, respectively, accounting for a small proportion of expenses. However, after the mass production of L4 trucks is really realized, the marketing and market expansion expenses may also rise, and investors need to consider these factors when calculating the likelihood of profitability.</p><p>Take Waymo, a subsidiary of Google, as an example. It provides driverless taxi service to 1,500 passengers in Phoenix, USA every month, but the revenue of this service is only tens of thousands of dollars. Revenue of this size is almost negligible, but it currently burns Google $1 billion every year. But people's eyes are on the future, according to<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/UBS\">UBS</a>(UBS) forecasts that Waymo's revenue could reach $114 billion by 2030.</p><p>The future of Tucson needs to be built on the mass production of half-cards. Currently, Tucson's half-truck test car also needs a safety officer and driver to hit the road. Chen Mo once said that technically, it is the prerequisite for mass production to remove security officers. It is only possible to remove the security officer when the hardware reliability is up to standard. For example, when the power supply of the machine can reach 4,000 watts, the machine can continue to run without downtime, but the current hardware can't reach this level. If the technical level is insufficient, mass production cannot be achieved, and if mass production cannot be achieved, it cannot be commercialized.</p><p><b>6. Who holds Tucson?</b></p><p>Before the IPO, Tucson had completed 10 rounds of financing and raised more than 650 million US dollars. Sina,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NVDA\">NVIDIA</a>, UPS, Navistar, Korean automobile first-tier supplier Wandu,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/0P6N.UK\">Volkswagen Group</a>TRATON, CDH Investments and others are shareholders of Tucson.</p><p>According to the prospectus information, Chen Mo, co-founder and chairman of TuSimple Future, held 9% of Class A shares and 50% of Class B shares before the IPO; Co-founder and CTO Hou Xiaodi holds 8.3% of Class A shares and 50% of Class B shares.</p><p>Sun Dream Inc., an affiliate of Sina, is Tucson's largest outside shareholder with 31 million shares, or about 20% of Class A shares. Sina CEO Cao Guowei and CFO Zhang Yi are both directors of Tucson. In the financing from round A to round D of Tucson, Sina Micro Venture Capital participated in the investment.</p><p>The reason why Sina initially invested in Tucson is probably that it valued its pre-transformation product, that is, the image recognition technology of online advertising. Unexpectedly, it became a shareholder of an autonomous driving company.</p><p>After the IPO, Chen Mo will hold 7.6% of the company's Class A shares and 50% of Class B shares; Hou Xiaodi holds 7.1% of Class A shares and 50% of Class B shares. Sun Dream Inc. holds 13.1% of Class A shares.</p><p>Additionally, truck manufacturer Navistar International Corp. (NYSE:NAV) also holds 10.2 million Class A shares of Tucson (6.5%), and following the IPO, Navistar's stake is 5.4%.</p><p>Among the investors in the secondary market, there are also many well-known institutions betting on Tucson. In the subscription news of this IPO,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BLK\">BlackRock</a>(BlackRock), Fidelity and Capital World Investors participated in the IPO subscription as cornerstone Investors, with an average subscription of 3,378,378 shares and a maximum subscription of 10,135,134 shares.</p>","source":"lsy1569753395102","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Dismantling TuSimple: 6 Questions to Understand the World's First Autonomous Driving Stock</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nDismantling TuSimple: 6 Questions to Understand the World's First Autonomous Driving Stock\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">甲子光年</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-04-15 15:34</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>Text/Gao Ya</p><p>Just this evening, \"the first stock of autonomous driving in the world\" is coming. If nothing else, on April 15th EST, TuSimple Future (hereinafter referred to as \"TuSimple\") will be listed on Nasdaq under the stock code TSP.</p><p>Different from the previous expectations of spectators, the hands of truck drivers were the first to liberate \"the first self-driving stock in the world\". On March 23rd this year, Tucson, an autonomous truck company, submitted an IPO application; On the 7th of this month, it further determined the price range and number of stock offerings.</p><p>With the listing, TuSimple is preparing to issue 33.78 million ADS shares, including 27.02 million shares issued by the company and existing shareholders<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/SINA\">SINA</a>6.75 million shares sold. Tucson's identified offering price range is $35 to $39. According to previous disclosure, Tucson hopes to raise $800-1 billion. If it goes public smoothly, Tucson's overall valuation will be about $5-7 billion.</p><p>Some analysts believe that Tucson is likely to be able to sell an additional $1 billion of stock \"because investors have an appetite\". The financing of the autonomous driving track is hot at present. According to the previous exclusive news of \"Jiazi Guangnian\", Xidi Zhijia, an autonomous driving company, completed two financing in three months, and the latest round of financing far exceeded the plan. Xidi Zhijia is just a microcosm of the whole track. In the first two months of 2021 alone, there have been 24 investment and financing events in the autonomous driving industry, and the total amount of investment and financing disclosed is 17.64 billion yuan.</p><p>With Tucson's listing, Nasdaq will also welcome the world's first self-driving company to go public. Autopilot's close encounter with the stock market kicks off. In the competition to go public, Tucson succeeded in stealing the lead.</p><p>\"Jiazi Lightyear\" disassembled Tucson's prospectus to see what kind of enterprise it is:</p><p>The driverless track is hot, and this is a good time to land in the secondary market. Tucson succeeded in stealing;</p><p>To seize the first stock of autonomous driving in the world, Tucson is to prepare food and grass for the follow-up business. According to its plan, Tucson will expand its autonomous freight network (AFN) throughout the continental United States by 2024;</p><p>For the use of funds raised from the listing, there is no R&D and product investment in Tucson's current plan;</p><p>Compared with the passenger track, the driverless truck market seems to be a blue ocean. However, the technology landing and commercialization have only started, and the marathon has only started;</p><p>Tucson is still losing money and has no current plans to make a profit;</p><p>Tucson's largest outside shareholder is Sun Dream Inc., an affiliate of Sina. How did this established Internet company vote for an autonomous driving company? Intriguing.</p><p><b>1. Who is Tucson?</b></p><p>Tucson is a driverless truck brand. Founded in September 2015, it wants to empower the global logistics and transportation industry through artificial intelligence.</p><p>The company declares that its vision is to revolutionize the roughly $4 trillion global trucking market. Of that, the total U.S. freight market generates $100 million in annual revenue, and truck freight accounts for another 80%, according to the report by consulting firm Armstrong & Assocates. The United States is Tucson's main market right now.</p><p>To achieve this goal, Tucson has developed technologies for semi-trucks, namely commercial L4 autonomous driving solutions based on computer vision, unmanned transportation solutions for high-speed scenarios and container trucks in ports, and Autonomous Freight Network (AFN), which Tucson believes will make long-distance trucking safer, more reliable, more efficient and environmentally friendly.</p><p>The so-called L4 level unmanned driving (High Automation) means that the vehicle can automatically plan the driving route and avoid traffic congestion under the control of the travel computer, and the vehicle owner can not intervene in the operation.</p><p>In 2020, Tucson earned $1.84 million; In 2018 that figure was $9,000. In fact, similar companies of autonomous driving have ushered in good days recently. In addition to the gradual maturity of technology and the general increase in acceptance, the epidemic has reduced contact between people.</p><p>The current \"Tucson Future Co., Ltd.\", formerly known as \"Beijing Tucson Internet Technology Co., Ltd.\" In 2017, the company changed its name to \"TuSimple Future\", and its business also shifted from providing technical services to autonomous driving. At that time, the founder Chen Mo took a fancy to the fiery autonomous driving. Chen Mo advertises himself as \"a pragmatist\" and will choose the path closest to money.</p><p>This is also Chen Mo's fifth venture. Before founding Tucson, Chen Mo participated in the operation of three companies, namely Cangqiong Advertising (a building advertising platform), Deep Blue Brothers (page game chess and card platform) and Cheguo.com (automobile O2O trading platform). However, starting a business requires a little luck in addition to taking the lead. The first three ventures collapsed in the middle until there was Tucson.</p><p>Tucson's technical background comes from another founding member, CTO Hou Xiaodi, who is a PhD in computing and nervous system at Caltech. He founded the theory of visual attention mechanism based on frequency domain, which is called the prototype of \"campus hacker\" by the media.</p><p><b>2. Why did you choose a truck?</b></p><p>Autonomous driving can be divided into passenger domain and commercial domain. The half-card selected by Tucson belongs to the commercial domain of driverless driving. Domestic analysts often regard Tucson, Zhijia and Pony Zhixing as the \"three treasures of new forces\" in the unmanned freight market.</p><p>The market space of passenger cars is far larger than that of commercial vehicles. Chen Mo once told the media that their (passenger car) market is nearly 10 times that of ours. This has created a more crowded track in the passenger segment. An entrepreneur in the autonomous driving industry told \"Jiazi Guangnian\" that before<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/GOOG\">Google</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BIDU\">Baidu</a>Entrepreneurs who come out of the direction of autonomous driving will give priority to passenger car projects. For example, Wang Jin, founder of Wenyuan Zhixing (formerly Jingchi Technology), and Lou Tiancheng, founder of Pony Zhixing, both chose the passenger field.</p><p>However, because passenger cars are directly related to people, safety issues have become a higher threshold, which makes it more difficult to land and commercialize them. In 2018, he made efforts in autonomous driving in the passenger car field<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/V03.SI\">Startups</a>Many of them haven't made it to this day.</p><p>Relatively speaking, the commercial field is actually better to land. Chris Urmson, the founder of Aurora and the pioneer of Google's self-driving car, once explained: If you have a person in the back seat of your self-driving, you will have a lot of worries. If it is followed by a roll of toilet paper, it will be much less difficult to achieve.</p><p>At the same time, as far as the unmanned truck market is concerned, the market space is actually not small. McKinsey's data gives corroboration: By leveraging driverless van systems, the overall operating costs of the U.S. trucking industry will decrease by about 45%, saving about $85 billion to $125 billion. In China, the situation is exactly the same. In the recruitment section of its official website, Tucson described its business as \"an industry worth $800 billion\".</p><p>There are relatively few competitors in the unmanned truck freight market. Sam Abuelsamid, chief research analyst at Guidehouse Insights and senior Forbes contributor, once said of Tucson: In the AV (self-driving) truck industry, they're certainly one of the leaders, if not one.</p><p>It's a fairly small group. In order to avoid the fierce competition of passenger cars, some self-driving enterprises have also turned to truck freight. Since April 2019, Pony.ai has also begun to develop the truck freight market, after focusing on the passenger car market.</p><p><b>3. What to attract investors?</b></p><p>In the process of capital markets, Tucson jumped ahead. Zhijia Technology is a direct competitor of Tucson. Bloomberg previously reported that Zhijia wanted to go public by SPAC in early 2021, but so far there has been no new progress.</p><p>\"Preemption\" is also very Chen Mo's style. Earlier, when he had a phone call with Yuan Hongming, chairman of Shaanxi Automobile, he said: If others do it first, if you take a step slower, wouldn't the market be occupied?</p><p>What does Tucson, a successful one, rely on to attract investors in the secondary market? Transforming the truck market isn't all that sexy, and driverless driving isn't something familiar.</p><p>One of the cards Tucson has played is high growth. In 2020, it received more than 5,700 intended pre-orders, and its finance income increased by 160% year-on-year. However, this is because the base is relatively small, and even for the whole of 2020, Tucson's total revenue was only $1.843 million.</p><p>Possible future growth is the greater temptation given by Tucson. In 2020, TuSimple launched the world's first driverless freight network (AFN), which is the basis for its commercialization. It says this in its prospectus: We expect to map the entire 46,000-mile U.S. interstate highway system by 2024.</p><p>That said, in 3 years, its AFN route will be 16 times that of today, when L4 autonomous semi-trucks can be seen on major transportation routes in all 48 states in the United States. But only if the plan goes through smoothly.</p><p>If you look at the use of the funds raised, it is difficult to judge how Tucson will promote its above-mentioned plan. According to the prospectus disclosure, Tucson will mainly use the funds raised by the IPO for the following three aspects: improving financial flexibility and visibility in the market, and hopes to use the net proceeds from this offering for working capital and other general corporate purposes.</p><p>The financing purpose of autonomous driving companies, the common destination of funds is to expand the team, promote products and help research and development. For example, the latest round of financing of $500 million by autonomous driving company Momenta is mainly used for product strategy, pushing its product \"flywheel\" further afield; The financing of Zhijia Technology in February this year will be placed on strengthening cooperation, mainly for building a sound sales and support network; Funding from self-driving delivery company Nuro last November will be used to scale up the team and manufacturing. Tucson apparently did not choose this regular route.</p><p><b>4. What about commercialization capabilities?</b></p><p>In the prospectus, Tucson said it was \"the first and only company\" to implement L4-level truck autonomy technology on highways and surface streets.</p><p>However, \"Jiazi Guangnian\" found that if \"highways\", \"ground streets\" and \"trucks\" are not limited, there are still many families that say that they have realized L4 autonomous driving technology, each with its own scenes. For example, Pony Zhixing demonstrated the software and hardware system of L4 autonomous heavy truck in November last year.</p><p>In addition, the advantages highlighted by TuSimple in the prospectus include: 28,000 miles (about 4.506 million kilometers) of road test kilometers, cooperation with tier 1 component suppliers (including major operators such as Schneider Nation, U.S. Xpress and Werner Enterprises), and semi-truck OEMs Navistar and TRATON to jointly build an autonomous freight ecosystem, and so on.</p><p>This is not without doubt. People in the domestic autonomous driving industry asked: In this case, why didn't Tucson provide services to domestic companies? \"The policy environment between China and the United States is different on the one hand. Autonomous driving also depends on the technology of wire control, and whether the technical capability of wire control is enough is on the other.\"</p><p>At this stage, in fact, no company can really realize commercialization, and the players in the industry are competing more for the potential of commercialization.</p><p>Pre-order has become one of the important indicators to measure commercialization. One of the highlights in Tucson's prospectus is that it secured more than 5,700 intended pre-orders in 4 months. However, like Tucson, Zhijia has also received pre-orders. According to the latest news, PlusDrive (Zhijia Technology Commercial Vehicle Autonomous Driving System) has received more than 10,000 pre-orders for deployment by large fleets and heavy truck OEMs. The delivery time of Zhijia is set for 2021.</p><p>Car companies are running desperately, trying to seize the opportunity. According to the mass production schedule of autonomous driving models given in the Intelligent Connected Vehicle Technology Roadmap 2.0 released in November last year, it is a large-scale application of highly autonomous driving technology by 2030. That said, the official plan to achieve the L4 is about 10 years away.</p><p>Even if car companies have developed autonomous vehicles with L4 and above, the responsibility allocation rules for L4 and above are still being explored in countries around the world. This is also a hurdle that commercialization needs to overcome.</p><p><b>5. There is no timeline yet for earnings</b></p><p>Not only Tucson, but the marathon of the entire industry of autonomous driving has only taken its first step. In terms of profitability, TuSimple's statement in the prospectus is: There is no plan yet.</p><p>Like most tech companies, TuSimple is still in the red. According to TuSimple's prospectus, as of December 31, 2020, TuSimple recorded a total loss of US$405.2 million (approximately RMB2.64 billion) in five years, and a loss of US$177.9 million (approximately RMB1.16 billion) in 2020 alone. From 2018 to 2020, Tucson's annual net loss was about twice that of the previous year.</p><p>It is highly likely that the loss will continue. Chen Mo once said that it would take about $1 billion to make money by driverless truck freight.</p><p>The AFN ecosystem is currently still in the early stages of development and commercialization, and there is still some way to go before it can be profitable. In 2020, TuSimple's surge in full-year revenue was closely related to those more than 5,700 undelivered pre-orders, but about 75% of these orders were placed by customers who operate commercial truck fleets, and there is still a distance from truly market-oriented operation.</p><p>Autonomous driving is an industry that requires continuous investment in research and development and maintaining innovation capabilities. According to PitchBook, a research firm, startups in the autonomous driving industry spend an average of $1.6 million (equivalent to 105.1 billion yuan) a month. Han Xu, CEO of Wenyuan Zhixing, also revealed the company's spending rate: $300 million in three years and $500 million in five years.</p><p>Currently, 673 of Tucson's 839 employees are R&D personnel, accounting for 80%. From 2018 to 2020, the company's R&D expenditure was US$32.278 million, US$63.619 million and US$132 million respectively, accounting for more than 70% of the total expenditure, and there is a slight upward trend.</p><p>As the commercialization process unfolds, operating costs may continue to increase, which may delay<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/06838\">When profitable</a>From. During the three years from 2018 to 2020, TuSimple's marketing expenses were $1.085,000, $814,000, and $1.313,000, respectively, accounting for a small proportion of expenses. However, after the mass production of L4 trucks is really realized, the marketing and market expansion expenses may also rise, and investors need to consider these factors when calculating the likelihood of profitability.</p><p>Take Waymo, a subsidiary of Google, as an example. It provides driverless taxi service to 1,500 passengers in Phoenix, USA every month, but the revenue of this service is only tens of thousands of dollars. Revenue of this size is almost negligible, but it currently burns Google $1 billion every year. But people's eyes are on the future, according to<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/UBS\">UBS</a>(UBS) forecasts that Waymo's revenue could reach $114 billion by 2030.</p><p>The future of Tucson needs to be built on the mass production of half-cards. Currently, Tucson's half-truck test car also needs a safety officer and driver to hit the road. Chen Mo once said that technically, it is the prerequisite for mass production to remove security officers. It is only possible to remove the security officer when the hardware reliability is up to standard. For example, when the power supply of the machine can reach 4,000 watts, the machine can continue to run without downtime, but the current hardware can't reach this level. If the technical level is insufficient, mass production cannot be achieved, and if mass production cannot be achieved, it cannot be commercialized.</p><p><b>6. Who holds Tucson?</b></p><p>Before the IPO, Tucson had completed 10 rounds of financing and raised more than 650 million US dollars. Sina,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NVDA\">NVIDIA</a>, UPS, Navistar, Korean automobile first-tier supplier Wandu,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/0P6N.UK\">Volkswagen Group</a>TRATON, CDH Investments and others are shareholders of Tucson.</p><p>According to the prospectus information, Chen Mo, co-founder and chairman of TuSimple Future, held 9% of Class A shares and 50% of Class B shares before the IPO; Co-founder and CTO Hou Xiaodi holds 8.3% of Class A shares and 50% of Class B shares.</p><p>Sun Dream Inc., an affiliate of Sina, is Tucson's largest outside shareholder with 31 million shares, or about 20% of Class A shares. Sina CEO Cao Guowei and CFO Zhang Yi are both directors of Tucson. In the financing from round A to round D of Tucson, Sina Micro Venture Capital participated in the investment.</p><p>The reason why Sina initially invested in Tucson is probably that it valued its pre-transformation product, that is, the image recognition technology of online advertising. Unexpectedly, it became a shareholder of an autonomous driving company.</p><p>After the IPO, Chen Mo will hold 7.6% of the company's Class A shares and 50% of Class B shares; Hou Xiaodi holds 7.1% of Class A shares and 50% of Class B shares. Sun Dream Inc. holds 13.1% of Class A shares.</p><p>Additionally, truck manufacturer Navistar International Corp. (NYSE:NAV) also holds 10.2 million Class A shares of Tucson (6.5%), and following the IPO, Navistar's stake is 5.4%.</p><p>Among the investors in the secondary market, there are also many well-known institutions betting on Tucson. In the subscription news of this IPO,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BLK\">BlackRock</a>(BlackRock), Fidelity and Capital World Investors participated in the IPO subscription as cornerstone Investors, with an average subscription of 3,378,378 shares and a maximum subscription of 10,135,134 shares.</p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> source：<a href=\"http://finance.sina.com.cn/tech/csj/2021-04-15/doc-ikmyaawa9815441.shtml\">甲子光年</a></p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c360efedfdf306e30d535692b886657e","relate_stocks":{},"source_url":"http://finance.sina.com.cn/tech/csj/2021-04-15/doc-ikmyaawa9815441.shtml","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1111977847","content_text":"文/高雅\n就在今天晚上，“全球自动驾驶第一股”要来了。如果不出意外，美东时间4月15日，图森未来（以下简称“图森”）将在纳斯达克上市，股票代码TSP。\n与此前看客们的期待不同，“全球自动驾驶第一股”率先解放的，是货车司机们的双手。今年3月23日，自动驾驶卡车企业图森递交了IPO申请；本月7日，其进一步确定了股票发行价格区间和发售数量。\n此次上市，图森准备发行3,378万股ADS，其中包含公司发行的2,702万股和现有股东新浪出售的675万股。图森已确定的发行价区间为35美元到39美元。按此前披露，图森希望能募集8~10亿美元。如果顺利上市，图森的整体估值约为50~70亿美元。\n有分析师认为，图森很可能能多出售10亿美元的股票，“因为投资人有胃口”。自动驾驶赛道当下融资火热。据“甲子光年”此前的独家消息，自动驾驶公司希迪智驾在三个月内完成了两次融资，最新一轮融资也远超计划。希迪智驾只是整个赛道的一个缩影，仅在2021的前两个月，自动驾驶行业的投融资事件已有24起，披露投融资总金额为176.4亿元。\n随着图森上市，纳斯达克也将迎来全球第一家上市的自动驾驶公司。自动驾驶与股市的亲密接触拉开序幕。在上市这场竞逐赛中，图森抢跑成功。\n“甲子光年”拆解了图森的招股书，来看看这是家什么样的企业：\n无人驾驶赛道火热，此时是登陆二级市场的好时候，图森抢跑成功；\n抢占全球自动驾驶第一股，图森是要为后续业务开展准备粮草。按其计划，到2024年图森要在整个美国大陆扩展其自主货运网络（AFN）；\n上市募集的资金用途，图森目前的计划中没有研发和产品投入；\n相比乘用赛道，无人驾驶货车市场似乎是片蓝海。但技术落地、商业化才起步，马拉松才开跑；\n图森仍在亏损，目前没有盈利计划；\n图森最大的外部股东是新浪的关联公司Sun Dream Inc.。这家老牌互联网公司怎么投出了一家自动驾驶公司？耐人寻味。\n1.图森是谁？\n图森是一个无人驾驶卡车品牌。它成立于2015年9月，想要通过人工智能为全球物流运输业赋能。\n这家公司宣称，其愿景是彻底变革约4万亿美元全球卡车运输市场。咨询机构Armstrong & Assocates的报告称，其中美国总货运市场年收入为1亿美元，卡车货运又占80%。美国是图森目前的主要市场。\n为实现这个目的，图森开发了针对半卡车的技术，即计算机视觉为主的可商用L4级自动驾驶解决方案、高速场景及港内集装箱卡车的无人驾驶运输解决方案，加上自动驾驶货运网络(AFN)，图森相信将使长途卡车运输更加安全、可靠、高效、环保。\n所谓L4级无人驾驶（High Automation），是指车辆在行车电脑的控制下能自动规划行驶路线、躲避交通拥堵路段等，车主可以不介入操作。\n2020年，图森收入184万美元；2018年这个数字为9000美元。实际上自动驾驶的同类公司近期都迎来了好日子，除了技术逐渐走向成熟、接受度普遍提高，还有疫情减少了人和人之间的接触。\n现在的“图森未来有限公司”，前身是“北京图森互联科技有限责任公司”。2017年时公司更名为“图森未来”，业务也从提供技术服务转向自动驾驶。当时，创始人陈墨看上了火热的自动驾驶。陈墨标榜自己是“一名实用主义者”，会选择离钱最近的道路。\n这也是陈墨的第五次创业。在创立图森之前，陈墨先后参与运营了三家公司，分别是苍穹广告（一家楼宇广告平台）、深蓝兄弟（页游棋牌平台）和车国网（汽车O2O交易平台）。只不过，创业除了要抢先机，还需要一点运气。前三次创业先后中道崩殂，直到有了图森。\n图森的技术底色则来源于另一位创始成员、CTO侯晓迪，后者是加州理工计算与神经系统的博士，创立了基于频域的视觉注意机制理论，被媒体称为是“校园黑客”的原型。\n2.为什么选了卡车？\n自动驾驶可以被分为乘用领域和商用领域。图森选择的半卡属于无人驾驶的商用领域。国内分析人士常把图森、智加、小马智行看作是无人货运市场的“新势力三宝”。\n乘用车的市场空间远远大于商用车。陈墨就曾对媒体表示，他们（乘用车）的市场是我们的将近10倍。这造成了乘用领域的赛道更拥挤。一位自动驾驶行业的创业者告诉“甲子光年”，此前从谷歌、百度自动驾驶方向出来的创业者都会优先选乘用车项目。比如文远知行（原景驰科技）创始人王劲、小马智行创始人楼天城都选择了乘用领域。\n但乘用车因为与人直接相关，安全问题成了一道较高的门槛，导致其落地和商业化难度更高。曾在2018年发力乘用车领域的自动驾驶创业公司，有不少没能撑到今天。\n相对而言，商用领域其实更好落地。Google无人车的开创者、Aurora创始人克里斯·厄姆森曾经这样解释：如果你的自动驾驶后座上是个人，那顾虑会很多。如果后面就是一卷卫生纸，那实现起来难度就会小得多。\n同时，仅无人驾驶货车市场而言，其实市场空间不小。麦肯锡的数据给出了佐证：通过利用无人驾驶货车系统，美国卡车运输业的整体运营成本将下降约45%，可节省约850亿至1250亿美元。在中国，情况也如出一辙。图森在自己官网的招聘栏目中，将自己的事业描述为“一个价值8000亿美元的产业”。\n无人卡车货运市场竞争者相对较少。Guidehouse Insights首席研究分析师、《福布斯》资深撰稿人萨姆·阿伯萨米德(Sam Abuelsamid)评价图森时就曾说过：在AV（自动驾驶）卡车行业，他们即使不是领导者，也肯定是领导者之一。\n这是一个相当小的群体。为避开乘用车的激烈竞争，也有自动驾驶企业转向卡车货运的。2019年4月起，小马智行也开始发力卡车货运市场，此前其专注的是乘用车市场。\n3.拿什么吸引投资人？\n在资本市场的进程中，图森抢先了一步。智加科技是图森的直接竞争对手，此前彭博社就报道过智加想在2021年初以SPAC方式上市的消息，不过迄今没有新的进展。\n“抢先”也很有陈默的风格。此前其与陕汽董事长袁宏明通电话时就曾说过：要是别人先做起来了，您慢一步，市场不就被占光了？\n抢跑成功的图森，靠什么吸引二级市场投资人？变革卡车市场并不那么性感，无人驾驶也不是耳熟能详的事情。\n图森打出来的一张牌，是高增长。2020年它拿到了5700多个意向预订单，财务收入同比增长160%。不过，这是因为基数比较小，即使2020年全年，图森的总收入也不过184.3万美元。\n未来的可能增长是图森给出的更大诱惑。2020年，图森启动了全球首个无人驾驶货运网络（AFN），这是其商业化的基础。它在招股书中这么说：预计到2024年，我们将绘制整个4.6万英里的美国州际公路系统。\n也就是说，3年后其AFN的路线将是今天的16倍，到时候美国48个州的主要运输路线上都可以看到L4自主半卡车。但前提是，这个计划要顺利达成。\n如果从募资资金的用途看，还很难判断图森将如何推动它的上述规划。按招股书披露，图森将IPO募集的资金主要用于以下三方面：提高财务灵活性以及在市场上的知名度，并希望将此次发行的净收益用于营运资金和其他一般公司用途。\n自动驾驶公司的融资用途，常见的资金去向为扩建团队、产品推广和助力研发。比如自动驾驶公司Momenta最新一轮5亿美元的融资主要用于产品战略，将其产品“飞轮”推往更远的地方；智加科技今年2月的融资将放在强化合作上，主要用于构建完善的销售和支持网络；自动驾驶送货公司Nuro去年11月的融资将用于扩大团队和制造规模。图森显然没有选择这条常规路线。\n4.商业化能力怎么样？\n在招股书中，图森说自己是“第一家也是唯一一家”在高速公路和地面街道上实现L4级别卡车自动驾驶技术的公司。\n但“甲子光年”发现，如果不限定“高速公路”、“地面街道”和“卡车”，说自己实现了L4级自动驾驶技术的还有很多家，每家都有各自的场景。比如小马智行去年11月就展示了L4级自动驾驶重卡软硬件系统。\n此外，图森在招股书中强调的优势还包括：2.8万英里（约合450.6万公里）的路测公里数、和处于tier 1的零部件供应商（其中包括Schneider Nationa，U.S.Xpress和Werner Enterprises等主要运营商）以及半卡车原始设备制造商Navistar和TRATON合作，共同打造自动驾驶的货运生态等等。\n对此，并不是没有质疑。国内自动驾驶业内人士就问：既然如此，为什么图森没给国内的公司提供服务呢？“中美的政策环境不一样是一方面，自动驾驶还要看线控的技术，线控的技术能力够不够是另一方面。”\n在当前这个阶段，实际上还没有哪一家公司能真正实现商业化，行业内的选手比拼的更多是商业化的潜力。\n预订单成了衡量商业化落地的重要指标之一。图森招股书中的一大亮点是，其在4个月内获得了5700多个意向预订单。但与图森一样，智加也拿到预订单，按照最新消息，PlusDrive（智加科技商用车自动驾驶系统）已获得超过10,000台可供大型车队及重卡主机厂部署的预定单。智加的交付时间定在了2021年。\n车企们都在拼命奔跑，试图抢占先机。按照去年11月发布的《智能网联汽车技术路线图2.0》给出的自动驾驶车型量产时间表，是在2030年实现高度自动驾驶技术的规模应用。也就是说，实现L4的官方计划大约还有10年。\n即使车企研发出了具备L4及以上的自动驾驶汽车，目前世界各国对L4以上级别的责任分配规则仍还在探索中。这也是商业化需要迈过的一道坎儿。\n5.盈利还没有时间表\n不仅图森，自动驾驶整个行业的马拉松也才迈出第一步。表现在盈利上，图森在招股书中的表述是：还没有计划。\n像大部分科技公司一样，图森仍处于亏损状态。据图森招股书，截至2020年12月31日，图森5年共计亏损4.052亿美元（约为人民币26.4亿），仅2020年全年就亏损了1.779亿美元（约为人民币11.6亿）。从2018年到2020年，图森每年的净亏损额度都是上一年的两倍左右。\n亏损极有可能还将持续。陈默曾说过，要实现无人驾驶卡车货运赚钱，大概需要10亿美元。\nAFN生态系统目前仍处于开发和商业化早期的阶段，要想实现盈利还有一段路要走。2020年，图森全年营收的暴增与那5700多个未交付的预订单紧密相关，但这些订单中大约75%是由运营商用卡车车队的客户提出的，离着真正市场化运营还有距离。\n自动驾驶是一个需要不断投入研发、保持创新能力的行业。据研究机构PitchBook数据，自动驾驶行业里的创业公司平均每月耗掉160万美金（折合1051亿元人民币）。文远知行CEO韩旭也曾透露过公司的花钱速度：3年3亿美元，5年5亿美元。\n目前，图森839名员工中，673人都是研发人员，占比80%。2018至2020年，公司的研发支出分别为3227.8万美元、6361.9万美元和1.32亿美元，在总支出中的占比都超过七成，而且有略微上升的势头。\n随着商业化过程的展开，运营成本可能持续增加，这可能延后盈利时间。在2018至2020年的三年间，图森的营销费用分别为108.5万美元、81.4万美元、131.3万美元，占支出比重较小。但真正实现L4卡车量产后，营销、市场拓展费用也有可能水涨船高，投资人们在计算盈利可能性时也需要考虑这些因素。\n以谷歌旗下的Waymo为例，每个月给美国凤凰城1500名乘客提供无人驾驶出租车服务，但这项服务的营收不过区区上万美元。这样规模的营收几乎可以忽略不计，但目前每年都要烧掉谷歌10亿美元。不过人们的眼光在未来，据瑞银(UBS)预测，到2030年，Waymo的营收可能达到1140亿美元。\n图森的未来，需要建立在半卡的量产基础上。目前，图森的半卡测试车还需要配备一位安全员和司机才能上路。陈墨曾表示，技术上可以去掉安全员是量产的前提。只有硬件可靠性达标时，才有可能去掉安全员。比如，在机器供电可以达到4000瓦时，机器才可以持续运行、不出现宕机的情况，而目前的硬件还无法达到这个水平。技术水平不足就无法实现量产，没法量产就谈不上商业化。\n6.谁在持有图森？\n在IPO之前，图森已经累计获得完成10轮融资、累计募资超过6.5亿美元，新浪、英伟达、UPS、Navistar、韩国汽车一级供应商万都、大众集团TRATON、鼎晖投资等都是图森的股东。\n按招股书信息，IPO之前图森未来联合创始人、董事长陈默持有9%的A类股，50%的B类股；联合创始人、CTO侯晓迪持有8.3%的A类股，及50%的B类股。\n新浪的关联公司Sun Dream Inc.是图森最大的外部股东，持有3,100万股股票，占A级股比例约20%。新浪CEO曹国伟、CFO张怿都是图森董事。在图森A轮到D轮的融资中，新浪微创投均参与投资。\n新浪最初投资图森的原因，很可能是看重其转型前的产品，即在线广告的图像识别技术，没想到成了一家自动驾驶公司的股东。\nIPO后，陈默将持有公司7.6%的A类股，及50%的B类股；侯晓迪持有7.1%的A类股，及50%的B类股。Sun Dream Inc.持股13.1%的A类股。\n此外，卡车制造商Navistar International Corp.（NYSE：NAV）也持有图森1020万A类股（6.5%），上市之后，Navistar的持股比例为5.4%。\n二级市场的投资人中，也不乏知名机构押注图森的。此次IPO的认购消息中，贝莱德（BlackRock）、富达（Fidelity）和资本世界投资者(Capital World Investors)三家投资机构作为基石投资者参与IPO认购，平均认购3,378,378股，最高一共认购10,135,134股。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"TSP":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":737,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":344031492,"gmtCreate":1618359317816,"gmtModify":1704709571897,"author":{"id":"3536928846214760","authorId":"3536928846214760","name":"東海吉龍","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0ef8466588cf515f97a20c636e2be8a0","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3536928846214760","idStr":"3536928846214760"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"666","listText":"666","text":"666","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/344031492","repostId":"2127045758","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"2127045758","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1618351055,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/2127045758?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2021-04-14 05:57","market":"hk","language":"zh","title":"Tesla closed up 8.6% on Tuesday, returning its market cap to $700 billion","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2127045758","media":"新浪财经","summary":"特斯拉股价周二收盘大涨8.6%，领跑热门科技股和纽交所新能源汽车类股，报762.32美元，创2月19日以来收盘新高。该股周二成交额达到327.2亿美元，位居美股成交额榜首，市值重新站上7000亿美元。Canaccord分析师Jed Dorsheimer将特斯拉股票评级从“持有”上调至“买入”，目标价从419美元上调至1071美元，预计到2025年，特斯拉能源生产和储能部门将产生80亿美元收入。其中，特斯拉将是第一个上市的股权代币，并于4月12日在该平台开放部分交易。","content":"<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/811f4220ec7872735330397a4dabe441\" tg-width=\"840\" tg-height=\"470\"><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TSLA\">Tesla</a>Shares closed up 8.6% on Tuesday, leading hot tech stocks and new energy vehicle stocks on the New York Stock Exchange at $762.32, a new closing high since Feb. 19. The stock's turnover reached $32.72 billion on Tuesday, ranking first among U.S. stocks by turnover, and its market value regained its position at $700 billion.</p><p>It comes after analysts at investment bank Canaccord Genuity said the company known for its electric vehicles is bound to \"attack and conquer\" another trillion-dollar market as Tesla steps up its focus on its energy production and storage business. Canaccord analyst Jed Dorsheimer raised his rating on Tesla stock to Buy from Hold and his price target to $1,071 from $419, estimating that Tesla's energy production and storage segment will generate $8 billion in revenue by 2025.</p><p>In addition, on the news, cryptocurrency trading platform Binance previously announced the launch of a zero-commission tradable equity token called Binance Stock Tokens (BST), which allows users to trade scattered stocks. Among them, Tesla will be the first equity token to go public and open partial trading on the platform on April 12.</p>","source":"sina_symbol","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Tesla closed up 8.6% on Tuesday, returning its market cap to $700 billion</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nTesla closed up 8.6% on Tuesday, returning its market cap to $700 billion\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">新浪财经</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-04-14 05:57</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/811f4220ec7872735330397a4dabe441\" tg-width=\"840\" tg-height=\"470\"><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TSLA\">Tesla</a>Shares closed up 8.6% on Tuesday, leading hot tech stocks and new energy vehicle stocks on the New York Stock Exchange at $762.32, a new closing high since Feb. 19. The stock's turnover reached $32.72 billion on Tuesday, ranking first among U.S. stocks by turnover, and its market value regained its position at $700 billion.</p><p>It comes after analysts at investment bank Canaccord Genuity said the company known for its electric vehicles is bound to \"attack and conquer\" another trillion-dollar market as Tesla steps up its focus on its energy production and storage business. Canaccord analyst Jed Dorsheimer raised his rating on Tesla stock to Buy from Hold and his price target to $1,071 from $419, estimating that Tesla's energy production and storage segment will generate $8 billion in revenue by 2025.</p><p>In addition, on the news, cryptocurrency trading platform Binance previously announced the launch of a zero-commission tradable equity token called Binance Stock Tokens (BST), which allows users to trade scattered stocks. Among them, Tesla will be the first equity token to go public and open partial trading on the platform on April 12.</p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> source：<a href=\"https://cj.sina.cn/article/normal_detail?url=https://finance.sina.com.cn/stock/usstock/c/2021-04-14/doc-ikmxzfmk6663473.shtml\">新浪财经</a></p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1758ac5dbd4a135a251f043ec0fbc95f","relate_stocks":{"TSLA":"特斯拉"},"source_url":"https://cj.sina.cn/article/normal_detail?url=https://finance.sina.com.cn/stock/usstock/c/2021-04-14/doc-ikmxzfmk6663473.shtml","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2127045758","content_text":"特斯拉股价周二收盘大涨8.6%，领跑热门科技股和纽交所新能源汽车类股，报762.32美元，创2月19日以来收盘新高。该股周二成交额达到327.2亿美元，位居美股成交额榜首，市值重新站上7000亿美元。\n此前，投行Canaccord Genuity分析师表示，随着特斯拉加强对能源生产和储能业务的关注，这家以电动汽车闻名的公司必将“攻击并征服”另一个规模达万亿美元的市场。Canaccord分析师Jed Dorsheimer将特斯拉股票评级从“持有”上调至“买入”，目标价从419美元上调至1071美元，预计到2025年，特斯拉能源生产和储能部门将产生80亿美元收入。\n此外，消息面上，加密货币交易平台币安此前宣布推出名为Binance Stock Tokens（BST）的零佣金可交易股权代币，允许用户交易零散股票。其中，特斯拉将是第一个上市的股权代币，并于4月12日在该平台开放部分交易。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"TSLA":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":899,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0}],"hots":[{"id":133957781,"gmtCreate":1621689414443,"gmtModify":1704361490545,"author":{"id":"3536928846214760","authorId":"3536928846214760","name":"東海吉龍","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0ef8466588cf515f97a20c636e2be8a0","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3536928846214760","authorIdStr":"3536928846214760"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"666","listText":"666","text":"666","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":4,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/133957781","repostId":"1118299916","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":4623,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":191045748,"gmtCreate":1620830207184,"gmtModify":1704349069331,"author":{"id":"3536928846214760","authorId":"3536928846214760","name":"東海吉龍","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0ef8466588cf515f97a20c636e2be8a0","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3536928846214760","authorIdStr":"3536928846214760"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"666","listText":"666","text":"666","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/191045748","repostId":"1123721888","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1123721888","kind":"news","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"为用户提供金融资讯、行情、数据，旨在帮助投资者理解世界，做投资决策。","home_visible":1,"media_name":"老虎资讯综合","id":"102","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba"},"pubTimestamp":1620812439,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1123721888?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2021-05-12 17:40","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"Tiger Brokers was included in the MSCI China All-Stock Index!","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1123721888","media":"老虎资讯综合","summary":"此次被纳入MSCI意味着国际资本市场对老虎证券的认可和信心！","content":"<p>On May 11th, MSCI, an international index compilation company, announced the quarterly adjustment results of the May index, among which,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TIGR\">Tiger Brokers</a>It is included in the MSCI China All Shares Index, which will take effect after the close of market on May 27.</p><p>Wu Tianhua, founder and CEO of Tiger Brokers, said: \"The inclusion of Tiger Brokers in the MSCI China All-Stock Index represents the recognition and confidence of the international market in our long-term investment value and development prospects. The mission of Tiger Brokers is that technology makes investment better. Through continuous technology iteration, we are committed to providing investors with a more efficient, convenient and smooth one-stop global investment experience. As Tiger enters Singapore, the United States and other countries and regions, we look forward to serving more global users. \"<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6cac618ec6413c15fd5aad09ee702621\" tg-width=\"405\" tg-height=\"720\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">MSCI (MSCI) is the most important index company in the world at present, compiling hundreds of indices of various markets around the world, and is tracked by a large number of international institutions and investors as an investment benchmark. Since the release of the first index in 1969, MSCI has mainly provided products and services such as index, risk portfolio and performance analysis tools, and corporate governance tools according to different countries and regions, market size, industries and investment methods. About $10 trillion of global assets are benchmarked against the MSCI index, and 97 of the world's top 100 largest asset managers are MSCI clients. Pensions for 95% of invested interests in the United States are benchmarked against MSCI.</p><p>The MSCI China All Shares Index, compiled by MSCI, is the most important component of the MSCI Emerging Markets Index. According to the adjustment method of MSCI index, companies that can be included in its index system generally have to meet a series of requirements such as total market value, free-float market value, liquidity and trading time.</p><p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e8f2f148520e460cb20ee263c4b5fd2f\" tg-width=\"830\" tg-height=\"536\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><span>MSCI Official Website</span></p><p>MSCI China All Shares Index Historical Performance:</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6c5df675372dbd49e16da8a583e0f650\" tg-width=\"830\" tg-height=\"426\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">According to the quarterly adjustment results released by MSCI, the MSCI China All-Stock Index added 60 new stocks and excluded 26 stocks this time. So, what does being on the list mean for Tiger?</p><p>It means the recognition and confidence of the international capital market in Tiger Brokers, which will help to further expand the influence of the company in the international capital market and enhance the internationalization level of the company's shareholders.</p><p>According to MSCI's estimate, trillions of dollars of funds around the world track emerging market indexes, including both active funds and passive funds. Passive funds take MSCI China All-Stock Index as their investment target. When stocks are included in the index, passive investors will allocate these new constituent stocks in proportion.</p><p>Details:</p><p><a href=\"https://www.msci.com/eqb/gimi/stdindex/MSCI_May21_ChinaAllShares_PublicList.pdf\" target=\"_blank\">Adjustment of MSCI China Index Constituent Stocks</a></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Tiger Brokers was included in the MSCI China All-Stock Index!</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nTiger Brokers was included in the MSCI China All-Stock Index!\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/102\">\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">老虎资讯综合 </p>\n<p class=\"h-time smaller\">2021-05-12 17:40</p>\n</div>\n</a>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>On May 11th, MSCI, an international index compilation company, announced the quarterly adjustment results of the May index, among which,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TIGR\">Tiger Brokers</a>It is included in the MSCI China All Shares Index, which will take effect after the close of market on May 27.</p><p>Wu Tianhua, founder and CEO of Tiger Brokers, said: \"The inclusion of Tiger Brokers in the MSCI China All-Stock Index represents the recognition and confidence of the international market in our long-term investment value and development prospects. The mission of Tiger Brokers is that technology makes investment better. Through continuous technology iteration, we are committed to providing investors with a more efficient, convenient and smooth one-stop global investment experience. As Tiger enters Singapore, the United States and other countries and regions, we look forward to serving more global users. \"<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6cac618ec6413c15fd5aad09ee702621\" tg-width=\"405\" tg-height=\"720\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">MSCI (MSCI) is the most important index company in the world at present, compiling hundreds of indices of various markets around the world, and is tracked by a large number of international institutions and investors as an investment benchmark. Since the release of the first index in 1969, MSCI has mainly provided products and services such as index, risk portfolio and performance analysis tools, and corporate governance tools according to different countries and regions, market size, industries and investment methods. About $10 trillion of global assets are benchmarked against the MSCI index, and 97 of the world's top 100 largest asset managers are MSCI clients. Pensions for 95% of invested interests in the United States are benchmarked against MSCI.</p><p>The MSCI China All Shares Index, compiled by MSCI, is the most important component of the MSCI Emerging Markets Index. According to the adjustment method of MSCI index, companies that can be included in its index system generally have to meet a series of requirements such as total market value, free-float market value, liquidity and trading time.</p><p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e8f2f148520e460cb20ee263c4b5fd2f\" tg-width=\"830\" tg-height=\"536\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><span>MSCI Official Website</span></p><p>MSCI China All Shares Index Historical Performance:</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6c5df675372dbd49e16da8a583e0f650\" tg-width=\"830\" tg-height=\"426\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">According to the quarterly adjustment results released by MSCI, the MSCI China All-Stock Index added 60 new stocks and excluded 26 stocks this time. So, what does being on the list mean for Tiger?</p><p>It means the recognition and confidence of the international capital market in Tiger Brokers, which will help to further expand the influence of the company in the international capital market and enhance the internationalization level of the company's shareholders.</p><p>According to MSCI's estimate, trillions of dollars of funds around the world track emerging market indexes, including both active funds and passive funds. Passive funds take MSCI China All-Stock Index as their investment target. When stocks are included in the index, passive investors will allocate these new constituent stocks in proportion.</p><p>Details:</p><p><a href=\"https://www.msci.com/eqb/gimi/stdindex/MSCI_May21_ChinaAllShares_PublicList.pdf\" target=\"_blank\">Adjustment of MSCI China Index Constituent Stocks</a></p>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9e4b807dafecc161ebbd0d3c42055f20","relate_stocks":{"TIGR":"老虎证券"},"is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1123721888","content_text":"5月11日消息，国际指数编制公司MSCI公布5月指数季度调整结果，其中，老虎证券获纳入MSCI中国全股票指数（MSCI China All Shares Index），将于5月27日收盘后生效。老虎证券创始人及CEO巫天华表示：“老虎证券获纳入MSCI中国全股票指数代表国际市场对我们长期投资价值和发展前景的认可和信心。老虎证券的使命是科技让投资更美好。通过不断技术迭代，我们致力于为投资者提供更高效、便捷、流畅的一站式全球投资体验。随着老虎进入新加坡，美国等国家和地区，我们期待服务更多全球用户。”MSCI（明晟）是目前全球最重要的指数公司，编制数百种全球各个市场的指数，被大量国际机构，投资者作为投资基准并跟踪。从 1969年发布第一只指数至今，MSCI按照国家和区域、市场规模大小、行业及投资方式的不同，主要提供指数、风险组合和业绩分析工具以及公司治理工具等产品和服务。全球约10万亿美元的资产以MSCI指数为基准，全球前100个最大资产管理者中，97个都是MSCI的客户。美国95%的投资权益的养老金以MSCI为基准。MSCI中国全股票指数(MSCI China All Shares Index)由摩根士丹利资本国际(MSCI)编制，是 MSCI新兴市场指数中最重要的组成部分。根据 MSCI指数的调整方法，能被纳入到其指数体系的公司一般要满足总市值、自由流通市值、流动性和交易时间等一系列要求。MSCI官网明晟中国全股票指数(MSCI China All Shares Index)历史表现：根据MSCI发布的季度调整结果， MSCI中国全股票指数本次新增60只个股，剔除26只股票。那么，上榜对于老虎意味着什么呢？意味着国际资本市场对老虎证券的认可和信心，有助于进一步扩大公司国际资本市场影响力、提升公司股东国际化水平。据 MSCI估算，全球数以万亿美元的资金跟踪新兴市场指数，其中既包含了主动型资金，又包含了被动型基金，被动型资金以明晟中国全股票指数作为投资标的。当股票被纳入指数后，被动型投资者会按比例配置新增这些成份股。详情查看：MSCI中国指数成分股调整说明","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"TIGR":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":5553,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":108054251,"gmtCreate":1619966313173,"gmtModify":1704336841241,"author":{"id":"3536928846214760","authorId":"3536928846214760","name":"東海吉龍","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0ef8466588cf515f97a20c636e2be8a0","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3536928846214760","authorIdStr":"3536928846214760"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"666","listText":"666","text":"666","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/108054251","repostId":"2132567538","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"2132567538","kind":"highlight","pubTimestamp":1619941518,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/2132567538?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2021-05-02 15:45","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"Is the GDP of the United States strong or weak in the first quarter?","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2132567538","media":"智通财经网","summary":"本文来自“申万宏源宏观”。摘要一、周观点：美国一季度GDP究竟是偏强还是偏弱?21Q1美国GDP同比0.4%，略低于市场预期。美国21Q1  GDP实际同比0.4%，疫情以来首次同比转正，环比1.6%","content":"<p><b>This article comes from \"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/000166\">Shen Wan Hongyuan</a>Macro \".</b></p><p>Abstract</p><p><b>1. Week's Viewpoint: Is the GDP of the United States strong or weak in the first quarter?</b></p><p><b>21Q1 U.S. GDP was 0.4% year-on-year, slightly below market expectations.</b>U.S. GDP in 21Q1 was actually 0.4% year-on-year, turning positive year-on-year for the first time since the pandemic, and 1.6% quarter-on-quarter. The main contributing factors were commodity consumption, service consumption and non-residential investment, which showed the rapid recovery of the US economy under the improvement of the epidemic situation and financial subsidies. However, the main drag items are the change of private inventory and imports. In fact, the GDP growth rate of the United States in the first quarter was slightly lower than the market expectation, indicating that the market lacked understanding of the slow production recovery caused by excessive financial subsidies in the United States, and the expectation of excessive optimism about the improvement of the epidemic situation.</p><p><b>Resident consumption: subsidies promote commodity consumption, and the service industry is repaired when the epidemic eases.</b>1) In 21Q1, U.S. personal consumption expenditure drove GDP by 1.1 percentage points year-on-year, a significant improvement of 3 percentage points compared with 20Q4. Commodity consumption is mainly driven by durable goods, while the improvement of service consumption on GDP is greater than that of durable goods consumption; 2) From the perspective of monthly high frequency, PCE in March was 8.5% year-on-year and 3.7% month-on-month, and it strengthened again after a slight drop in the vacuum period of direct subsidies in February. It shows the immediate stimulating effect of the subsidy payment of $1,400 in March on consumption, and the recovery of service consumption under the relaxation of prevention and control measures. However, judging from the intensity of service consumption recovery, it is actually slightly weaker than the overly optimistic expectation of overseas markets in February-March.</p><p><b>Investment: Equipment investment improved significantly, interest rates inhibited real estate investment, and inventory replenishment did not appear.</b>In 21Q1, domestic private investment drove GDP by 0.8 percentage points year-on-year, a slight improvement of 0.1 percentage points compared with the fourth quarter. 1) Improvement in non-residential investment shows that the U.S. production sector expects an improvement in the economic outlook; 2) The decline in the year-on-year contribution of private inventory changes to 21Q1 GDP is the manifestation of the tear of supply and demand in the US economy. The demand is strong and the production recovers slowly, which leads to the decline of inventory, which means that the strength of commodity prices in Q1 cannot be supported by the logic of strong industrial production and active inventory replenishment in the US; 3) The year-on-year contribution of residential investment to GDP remained basically stable, while the month-on-month growth rate was suppressed with the overall rise of US interest rate in the previous period. The follow-up is expected to continue to cool with the medium-term upward process of interest rates.</p><p><b>Government spending and net exports: Subsidies drive government spending to increase, and the widening gap between supply and demand leads to a high increase in imports.</b>The tear of supply and demand in the U.S. economy has led to the deepening of the drag of net exports on GDP. In 21Q1, net exports dragged down GDP by 2 percentage points year-on-year, and the degree of drag widened by 0.7 percentage points compared with the previous 20Q4. Government expenditure in 21Q1 increased GDP by 0.1 percentage point year-on-year, mainly due to the issuance of direct subsidy checks for residents by the U.S. government to the banking system and the cost of purchasing vaccines.</p><p><b>It is expected that the economic recovery of the United States will be at a high point in the second quarter, and we will pay attention to the follow-up progress of the epidemic.</b>We believe that the strength of the future economic recovery in the United States depends on the vaccination process and the spread of COVID-19. Under the assumption that the epidemic situation in the United States continues to ease and the service industry is gradually recovering, it is expected that the second quarter will be the high point of recovery of the United States economy. However, the tear between supply and demand caused by excessive subsidies will continue until September, and the strength of the recovery of the United States economy during the year may not be as strong as the market expectations. Personal consumption expenditure: It is expected that the first quarter will be the high point of commodity consumption, and the service industry consumption will continue to gradually recover with the easing of the epidemic. However, the spread of more contagious virus variants in the United States and overseas countries will also affect the recovery intensity of the subsequent service industry; Investment: Improvements in non-residential investments require attention to subsequent pandemic progress. Residential investment will decline with the gradual cooling of the real estate market; Private inventory movements may have to wait until the end of unemployment benefits in September to improve. Government spending and net exports: Government spending is expected to continue to contribute positively to GDP year-on-year until the fourth quarter. Net exports will return to normal levels as the supply-demand gap narrows later this year.</p><p><b>Global macro data</b></p><p><b>High Frequency Data This Week</b>: New orders for durable goods in the United States all rose year-on-year</p><p><b>Pandemic</b>: New confirmed cases in the U.S. declined.</p><p><b>Demand</b>: Japanese retail sales picked up sharply year-on-year.</p><p><b>Supply and Employment</b>: New orders for durable goods in the United States all rose year-on-year.</p><p><b>TRADE</b>: The imports and exports of the United States rose sharply year-on-year in March.</p><p><b>Inflation and Commodities</b>: Oil prices rose slightly.</p><p><b>REALTY</b>: The contracted sales index of existing homes in the United States rose in March.</p><p><b>Monetary Policy and Exchange Rates</b>: the US Dollar Index falls, gold prices stable.</p><p><b>Global Macro Calendar</b>: Watch US ISM Manufacturing PMI</p><p>text</p><p><b>1. Week's Viewpoint: Is the GDP of the United States strong or weak in the first quarter?</b></p><p><b>1.21Q1 U.S. GDP 0.4% YoY, slightly below market expectations</b></p><p>The GDP of the United States in 21Q1 was actually 0.4% year-on-year, turning positive year-on-year for the first time since the epidemic, and 1.6% month-on-month. The main contributing factors were commodity consumption, service consumption and non-residential investment, which showed a relatively rapid recovery of the US economy under the improvement of the epidemic situation and financial subsidies. The main drag items are private inventory changes and imports, and in fact, the GDP growth rate of the United States in the first quarter was slightly lower than the market expectation, indicating that the market has insufficient awareness of the slow production recovery caused by excessive financial subsidies in the United States, and its overly optimistic expectation of the improvement of the epidemic situation.</p><p><img src=\"http://img.zhitongcaijing.com/images/contentformat/867b3b31bf5a4410ca85884cf283ce1f.jpg\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"588\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><b>2. Resident consumption: subsidies promote commodity consumption, the epidemic eases and the service industry repairs</b></p><p>In 21Q1, financial subsidies of up to 2,000 USD/person stimulated commodity consumption; The easing of the pandemic promoted the recovery of service consumption, but it was slightly weaker than the optimistic expectation of overseas markets in the previous period. 1) From a quarterly perspective, the personal consumption expenditure of the United States in 21Q1 drove GDP by 1.1 percentage points year-on-year, a substantial improvement of 3 percentage points compared with 20Q4. It jumped from the biggest drag on GDP in the fourth quarter to the biggest contribution, showing that the first quarter had the stimulating effect of the subsidy of 600 USD in January and the subsidy of 1,400 USD issued in March on consumption, and the gradual release of service consumption under the easing of the epidemic. 2) From the perspective of monthly high frequency, PCE reached 8.5% year-on-year and 3.7% month-on-month in March, and strengthened again after a slight drop in the vacuum period of direct subsidies in February. Among them, the year-on-year growth rate of durable goods and service consumption increased again, reaching 43.3% and 4.8% respectively in March, while non-durable goods slowed down slightly (4.3%) year-on-year, showing that the subsidy payment of $1,400 in March had an immediate stimulating effect on consumption, and the recovery of service consumption under the relaxation of prevention and control measures. However, judging from the intensity of service consumption recovery, it is actually slightly weaker than the overly optimistic expectation of overseas markets in February-March.</p><p><img src=\"http://img.zhitongcaijing.com/images/contentformat/fb6a3cdada866cc05b11f3b44abb7b40.jpg\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"398\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>Commodity consumption and service consumption jointly drive the high increase of personal consumption expenditure. 1) Commodity consumption is mainly driven by durable goods. In 21Q1, commodity consumption increased by 3.2 percentage points to GDP, an improvement of 1.5 percentage points compared with 20Q4, mainly due to the high increase of durable goods under the fiscal stimulus in the first quarter. In 21Q1, the contribution of durable goods to GDP improved significantly by 1.3 percentage points compared with the fourth quarter, while the contribution of non-durable goods to GDP only improved slightly by 0.3 percentage points; 2) The improvement of service consumption on GDP is greater than that of durable goods consumption. In 21Q1, although service consumption still had a negative pull of-1.4% on GDP, it has significantly improved by 1.6 percentage points compared with the previous quarter, which is even more than that of durable goods consumption, showing that service consumption has greater flexibility to improve under the dual factors of financial subsidy + epidemic easing.</p><p><img src=\"http://img.zhitongcaijing.com/images/contentformat/e8b1b37f95a3c799e28a194bc63e56e7.jpg\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"399\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><b>3. Investment: Equipment investment improved significantly, interest rates inhibited real estate investment, and inventory replenishment did not appear</b></p><p>The effect of non-residential investment on GDP has greatly improved, and private inventory has turned into a drag. In 21Q1, domestic private investment drove GDP by 0.8 percentage points year-on-year, a slight improvement of 0.1 percentage points compared with the fourth quarter.</p><p>1) Improvement in non-residential investment shows that the U.S. production sector has improved its expectations for the economic outlook. The main contributor to the improvement in private investment was non-residential investment (0.6 percentage point improvement), mainly from equipment investment, indicating that manufacturing enterprises remain optimistic about the prospect of economic recovery.</p><p>2) The decline in the year-on-year contribution of private inventory changes to 21Q1 GDP is the manifestation of the tear of supply and demand in the US economy. Strong demand and slow production recovery lead to the decline of inventory, which means that the strength of commodity prices in Q1 cannot be supported by the logic of strong industrial production and active inventory replenishment in the US. The main drag on private investment was the movement of private inventories (0.4 percentage point drag).</p><p>3) The year-on-year contribution of residential investment to GDP remained basically stable, while the month-on-month growth rate was suppressed with the overall rise of US interest rate in the previous period. It is expected that the follow-up will continue to cool with the medium-term upward process of interest rates. In 21Q1, the pull of residential investment on GDP remained stable, but with the gradual increase of mortgage interest rates in the past 21 years, the U.S. real estate market has cooled down, and the expenditure on residential construction and sales of existing houses have slowed down. It is expected that the pull effect of subsequent residential investment on GDP will gradually decline.</p><p><img src=\"http://img.zhitongcaijing.com/images/contentformat/8831f8bd60fdfc9671df61b6e741faaa.jpg\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"393\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><b>4. Government spending and net exports: Subsidies boost government spending, and the widening gap between supply and demand leads to a high increase in imports</b></p><p>The tear of supply and demand in the U.S. economy has led to the deepening of the drag of net exports on GDP. In 21Q1, net exports dragged down GDP by 2 percentage points year-on-year, and the degree of drag widened by 0.7 percentage points compared with the previous 20Q4. 1) Exports were dragged down by 1 percentage point, but they have improved by 0.2 percentage points compared with the previous quarter, showing a slight recovery of industrial production in the United States, but the improvement of personal consumption expenditure by 3.0 percentage points is still dwarfed by comparison, which actually reflects the widening of supply and demand gap in 21Q1 under excessive financial subsidies in the United States; 2) In 21Q1, imports dragged down GDP by 1.0 percentage points year-on-year, and the degree of drag greatly expanded by 0.9 percentage points compared with the previous quarter. The direct consequence of the widening gap between supply and demand in the United States is the expansion of import scale.</p><p>Government expenditure in 21Q1 increased GDP by 0.1 percentage point year-on-year, mainly due to the issuance of direct subsidy checks for residents by the U.S. government to the banking system and the cost of purchasing vaccines.</p><p><img src=\"http://img.zhitongcaijing.com/images/contentformat/1e6d4ceb162a00ae93de51b3cf6bb71b.jpg\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"386\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><b>5. It is expected that the U.S. economic recovery will be at a high point in the second quarter, and pay attention to the follow-up progress of the epidemic</b></p><p>Looking ahead, we believe that the strength of future U.S. economic recovery depends on the vaccination process and the spread of COVID-19. Under the assumption that the epidemic situation in the United States continues to ease and the service industry is gradually recovering, it is expected that the second quarter will be the high point of recovery of the United States economy. However, the tear between supply and demand caused by excessive subsidies will continue until September, and the strength of the recovery of the United States economy during the year may not be as strong as the market expectations.</p><p>Personal consumption expenditure: 1) Although 21Q1 commodity consumption shows an extremely strong momentum, we expect the first quarter to be the high point of commodity consumption, and it will gradually decline with the subsidy ebb; 2) The consumption of the service industry will continue to recover gradually as the epidemic eases, but the global epidemic has rebounded since March, especially in European countries and emerging countries. At the same time, the spread of more contagious virus variants in the United States and overseas countries will also affect the recovery intensity of the subsequent service industry.</p><p>Investment: 1) The main driving force of the improvement of non-residential investment in 21Q1 is the expectation of economic improvement. From the current point of view, the global epidemic is the core factor determining the intensity of economic recovery, and it is necessary to pay attention to the follow-up epidemic progress; 2) Residential investment will decline with the gradual cooling of the real estate market; 3) The change of private inventory, that is, the intensity of inventory replenishment, will depend on whether the current situation of supply and demand tearing in the United States can be eased. From the current point of view, it will take until the unemployment subsidy ends in September before there will be a significant bridging trend at both ends of supply and demand in the United States, which will then drive inventory investment.</p><p>Government expenditure and net exports: 1) With the continuous payment of unemployment subsidies in the second and third quarters, government expenditure is expected to continue to make a positive contribution to GDP year-on-year before the fourth quarter, and if the U.S. Employment Plan or the American Family Plan can be implemented within the year, it will also boost the level of government expenditure; In terms of net exports, exports will depend on the progress of the recovery of industrial production in the United States. As mentioned above, they will not be boosted until the fourth quarter, while imports, on the contrary, will fall back to normal levels as the supply-demand gap narrows later this year.</p><p><img src=\"http://img.zhitongcaijing.com/images/contentformat/32e1b124c2e79173310a2a69f29f1ee7.jpg\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"547\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><b>2. Global macro data: New confirmed cases in the United States declined</b></p><p><b>1. Epidemic: New confirmed cases in the United States decline</b></p><p>New confirmed cases in the U.S. dropped this week. The number of newly confirmed cases in the United States dropped to more than 53,000 on average on 7 days. As of April 29th, the global COVID-19 epidemic has been diagnosed more than 150 million, with 3.14 million deaths and 120 million recoveries. This week (April 27th-April 30th), there were 220,000 and 9,000 newly confirmed cases in the United States and the United Kingdom respectively.</p><p>As of April 28, Israel has received the most COVID-19 vaccines per 100 people worldwide, reaching 121.1 shots per 100 people, 70.2 shots per 100 people in the United States and 70.9 shots per 100 people in the United Kingdom. As of April 28, Israel had the highest proportion of fully vaccinated people in the world, at 58.7%, while the United States and Britain had 29.3% and 20.7% respectively.</p><p><img src=\"http://img.zhitongcaijing.com/images/contentformat/887a942234cb8fe459a2f83e1d51371f.jpg\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"591\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><img src=\"http://img.zhitongcaijing.com/images/contentformat/62573bfd15fa133a1b4a5d4e236f878d.jpg\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"397\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><b>2. Demand: Japanese retail sales picked up sharply year-on-year</b></p><p>Both retail sales and wholesale sales in Japan rose sharply year-on-year. Japan's retail sales index in March was 5.3% year-on-year, of which retail textiles and apparel were 15.8% year-on-year, and the wholesale sales index in March was 1.0% year-on-year.</p><p><img src=\"http://img.zhitongcaijing.com/images/contentformat/a115423dbfa92a2b68fd1ddba7b7202c.jpg\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"432\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>South Korea's retail sales continued to grow year-on-year in March, and semi-durable goods consumption increased significantly. South Korea's retail sales in March increased by 3.5 percentage points to 13.5% year-on-year, of which the consumption of semi-durable goods grew the fastest, 35.5% year-on-year; Durable goods were 13.6% and non-durable goods were 6.5% year-on-year.</p><p><img src=\"http://img.zhitongcaijing.com/images/contentformat/660433692ab7c356ac6e92af5532c956.jpg\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"549\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><b>3. Supply and employment: New orders for durable goods in the United States all rose year-on-year</b></p><p>The inventory of durable goods in the United States increased, and the growth rate of new orders both increased year-on-year. U.S. durable goods inventories reached $431.84 billion in March, up 1.0% month-over-month and 1.7% year-over-year. New orders for durable goods in the United States rose 0.5% month-on-month in March and rose sharply by 25% year-on-year.</p><p><img src=\"http://img.zhitongcaijing.com/images/contentformat/00d167c28987b587b0353bdb22cabcb3.jpg\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"397\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>Japan's unemployment rate fell to 2.6% in March. Japan's unemployment rate fell 0.3 percentage points to 2.6% in March from the previous month. South Korea's industrial production index increased year-on-year, and the industry continued to rebound. South Korea's industrial production index rose 5.7% year-on-year and 0.8% month-on-month to 112.6 in March.</p><p><img src=\"http://img.zhitongcaijing.com/images/contentformat/3e518f69ea70eb9423bd2c4c0800a9d4.jpg\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"393\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>U.S. industrial materials production continues to rise. 1) As of the week of April 24th, the weekly crude steel output in the United States increased by 43.6% year-on-year, and the capacity utilization rate increased slightly by 0.4 percentage points from last week to 78.4%; 2) U.S. refinery operable capacity utilization rose 0.4 percentage points to 85.4% as of April 23.</p><p><img src=\"http://img.zhitongcaijing.com/images/contentformat/08378049f4011957a1ca13a61b5f7ee9.jpg\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"395\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>The number of initial claims for unemployment benefits in the United States fell slightly that week, and the number of continuing claims for unemployment benefits rose slightly. On the week of April 24th, the number of initial unemployment claims in the United States reached 553,000, down 13,000 from last week; In the week of April 17th, the number of people who continued to claim unemployment benefits reached 3.66 million, an increase of 9,000 from the previous month.</p><p><img src=\"http://img.zhitongcaijing.com/images/contentformat/50abaebb23322c65845134f36edf2eac.jpg\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"550\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><b>4. Trade: U.S. imports and exports both rose sharply year-on-year in March</b></p><p>U.S. imports and exports both rose sharply year-on-year in March. The growth rate of U.S. exports in March rose sharply by 16.5 percentage points from the previous month to 11.5%, while imports increased by 20.6% year-on-year. The U.S. goods trade balance in March was-$90.59 billion.</p><p><img src=\"http://img.zhitongcaijing.com/images/contentformat/b94fcaf0b73f26e0f7e86a9f8b746b80.jpg\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"549\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><b>5. Inflation and commodities: Oil prices edge up</b></p><p>EIA crude oil inventories rose by 9 million barrels in the week of April 28, and U.S. crude oil production fell slightly by 100,000 barrels per day to 10.9 million barrels per day. As of April 29th, the weekly average price of WTI crude oil rose to $63.2/barrel; The average weekly price of Brent oil rose to $66.6/barrel.</p><p><img src=\"http://img.zhitongcaijing.com/images/contentformat/2ea9504a69c4ccccc0e74ff1a56da96e.jpg\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"396\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><img src=\"http://img.zhitongcaijing.com/images/contentformat/e2a42a869453a51bf63a352119f75e6a.jpg\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"402\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><b>6. Real estate: U.S. existing home contracted sales index rose year-on-year in March</b></p><p>The U.S. S&P/CS house price index rose for eight consecutive months in February. In February, the U.S. S&P/CS house price index rose by 11.9% year-on-year to 246.0, rising for eight consecutive months. The contracted sales index of existing homes in the United States in March was 23.3% year-on-year and 1.9% month-on-month.</p><p><img src=\"http://img.zhitongcaijing.com/images/contentformat/6ac3751240b8a02c34f4c66d93fb255b.jpg\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"398\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>Japan's new housing construction and construction orders rose sharply in March. In March, the construction of new houses in Japan started by 1.5% year-on-year and 18.1% month-on-month, and the number of construction orders in March was 12.5% year-on-year and 192.7% month-on-month, the highest increase in nearly a year.</p><p><img src=\"http://img.zhitongcaijing.com/images/contentformat/e961519800be12d5e185f10acff56a58.jpg\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"392\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>U.S. 5-year mortgage rates have fallen and 15-year, 30-year mortgage rates have risen. For the week ending April 29, 5-year mortgage rates fell 0.2 percentage points to 2.6%, while 15-year and 30-year mortgage rates rose to 2.3% and 3.0%, respectively. In the week ending April 23rd, the US MBA market index fell by 18.2 to 706.6, and the heat of the housing market dropped slightly.</p><p><img src=\"http://img.zhitongcaijing.com/images/contentformat/2eb2b206b830b79a11aed2265d986bec.jpg\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"395\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><b>7. Monetary policy and exchange rate: the US Dollar Index falls, gold prices are basically stable</b></p><p>This week, the Federal Reserve's interest rate meeting was held, Powell's speech was pigeon, the the US Dollar Index fell, and the gold price was basically stable. On April 28th, local time, the Federal Reserve announced the statement of the interest rate meeting. Powell said at the press conference after the meeting that it will still take some time to see substantial progress. Before that, the current scale of asset purchases will be maintained. It is not time to discuss Taper yet, and the the US Dollar Index continues to decline. As of April 29th, the US Dollar Index closed at 90.6140, down 0.7% from last week; The exchange rate of the euro and the pound against the US dollar (the exchange rate data of the pound as of the 28th) closed at 1.2129 and 1.3906 respectively, appreciating by 0.7% and depreciating by 0.2% respectively compared with last week; As the Bank of Canada led Taper, the Canadian dollar strengthened, closing at 1.2292, an appreciation of 1.7% from last week. This week, the average weekly price of gold in London was USD 1,774.8/oz, which was basically stable compared with last week, and the year-on-year increase decreased by 1.2pct to 3.6% compared with last week.</p><p><img src=\"http://img.zhitongcaijing.com/images/contentformat/c2e4e8d549f84a56f7d651806cc3a657.jpg\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"398\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><img src=\"http://img.zhitongcaijing.com/images/contentformat/09b461fbeb60aed3abf2e7ffd691b486.jpg\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"551\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>","source":"highlight_zhitongcaijin","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Is the GDP of the United States strong or weak in the first quarter?</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nIs the GDP of the United States strong or weak in the first quarter?\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">智通财经网</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-05-02 15:45</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><b>This article comes from \"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/000166\">Shen Wan Hongyuan</a>Macro \".</b></p><p>Abstract</p><p><b>1. Week's Viewpoint: Is the GDP of the United States strong or weak in the first quarter?</b></p><p><b>21Q1 U.S. GDP was 0.4% year-on-year, slightly below market expectations.</b>U.S. GDP in 21Q1 was actually 0.4% year-on-year, turning positive year-on-year for the first time since the pandemic, and 1.6% quarter-on-quarter. The main contributing factors were commodity consumption, service consumption and non-residential investment, which showed the rapid recovery of the US economy under the improvement of the epidemic situation and financial subsidies. However, the main drag items are the change of private inventory and imports. In fact, the GDP growth rate of the United States in the first quarter was slightly lower than the market expectation, indicating that the market lacked understanding of the slow production recovery caused by excessive financial subsidies in the United States, and the expectation of excessive optimism about the improvement of the epidemic situation.</p><p><b>Resident consumption: subsidies promote commodity consumption, and the service industry is repaired when the epidemic eases.</b>1) In 21Q1, U.S. personal consumption expenditure drove GDP by 1.1 percentage points year-on-year, a significant improvement of 3 percentage points compared with 20Q4. Commodity consumption is mainly driven by durable goods, while the improvement of service consumption on GDP is greater than that of durable goods consumption; 2) From the perspective of monthly high frequency, PCE in March was 8.5% year-on-year and 3.7% month-on-month, and it strengthened again after a slight drop in the vacuum period of direct subsidies in February. It shows the immediate stimulating effect of the subsidy payment of $1,400 in March on consumption, and the recovery of service consumption under the relaxation of prevention and control measures. However, judging from the intensity of service consumption recovery, it is actually slightly weaker than the overly optimistic expectation of overseas markets in February-March.</p><p><b>Investment: Equipment investment improved significantly, interest rates inhibited real estate investment, and inventory replenishment did not appear.</b>In 21Q1, domestic private investment drove GDP by 0.8 percentage points year-on-year, a slight improvement of 0.1 percentage points compared with the fourth quarter. 1) Improvement in non-residential investment shows that the U.S. production sector expects an improvement in the economic outlook; 2) The decline in the year-on-year contribution of private inventory changes to 21Q1 GDP is the manifestation of the tear of supply and demand in the US economy. The demand is strong and the production recovers slowly, which leads to the decline of inventory, which means that the strength of commodity prices in Q1 cannot be supported by the logic of strong industrial production and active inventory replenishment in the US; 3) The year-on-year contribution of residential investment to GDP remained basically stable, while the month-on-month growth rate was suppressed with the overall rise of US interest rate in the previous period. The follow-up is expected to continue to cool with the medium-term upward process of interest rates.</p><p><b>Government spending and net exports: Subsidies drive government spending to increase, and the widening gap between supply and demand leads to a high increase in imports.</b>The tear of supply and demand in the U.S. economy has led to the deepening of the drag of net exports on GDP. In 21Q1, net exports dragged down GDP by 2 percentage points year-on-year, and the degree of drag widened by 0.7 percentage points compared with the previous 20Q4. Government expenditure in 21Q1 increased GDP by 0.1 percentage point year-on-year, mainly due to the issuance of direct subsidy checks for residents by the U.S. government to the banking system and the cost of purchasing vaccines.</p><p><b>It is expected that the economic recovery of the United States will be at a high point in the second quarter, and we will pay attention to the follow-up progress of the epidemic.</b>We believe that the strength of the future economic recovery in the United States depends on the vaccination process and the spread of COVID-19. Under the assumption that the epidemic situation in the United States continues to ease and the service industry is gradually recovering, it is expected that the second quarter will be the high point of recovery of the United States economy. However, the tear between supply and demand caused by excessive subsidies will continue until September, and the strength of the recovery of the United States economy during the year may not be as strong as the market expectations. Personal consumption expenditure: It is expected that the first quarter will be the high point of commodity consumption, and the service industry consumption will continue to gradually recover with the easing of the epidemic. However, the spread of more contagious virus variants in the United States and overseas countries will also affect the recovery intensity of the subsequent service industry; Investment: Improvements in non-residential investments require attention to subsequent pandemic progress. Residential investment will decline with the gradual cooling of the real estate market; Private inventory movements may have to wait until the end of unemployment benefits in September to improve. Government spending and net exports: Government spending is expected to continue to contribute positively to GDP year-on-year until the fourth quarter. Net exports will return to normal levels as the supply-demand gap narrows later this year.</p><p><b>Global macro data</b></p><p><b>High Frequency Data This Week</b>: New orders for durable goods in the United States all rose year-on-year</p><p><b>Pandemic</b>: New confirmed cases in the U.S. declined.</p><p><b>Demand</b>: Japanese retail sales picked up sharply year-on-year.</p><p><b>Supply and Employment</b>: New orders for durable goods in the United States all rose year-on-year.</p><p><b>TRADE</b>: The imports and exports of the United States rose sharply year-on-year in March.</p><p><b>Inflation and Commodities</b>: Oil prices rose slightly.</p><p><b>REALTY</b>: The contracted sales index of existing homes in the United States rose in March.</p><p><b>Monetary Policy and Exchange Rates</b>: the US Dollar Index falls, gold prices stable.</p><p><b>Global Macro Calendar</b>: Watch US ISM Manufacturing PMI</p><p>text</p><p><b>1. Week's Viewpoint: Is the GDP of the United States strong or weak in the first quarter?</b></p><p><b>1.21Q1 U.S. GDP 0.4% YoY, slightly below market expectations</b></p><p>The GDP of the United States in 21Q1 was actually 0.4% year-on-year, turning positive year-on-year for the first time since the epidemic, and 1.6% month-on-month. The main contributing factors were commodity consumption, service consumption and non-residential investment, which showed a relatively rapid recovery of the US economy under the improvement of the epidemic situation and financial subsidies. The main drag items are private inventory changes and imports, and in fact, the GDP growth rate of the United States in the first quarter was slightly lower than the market expectation, indicating that the market has insufficient awareness of the slow production recovery caused by excessive financial subsidies in the United States, and its overly optimistic expectation of the improvement of the epidemic situation.</p><p><img src=\"http://img.zhitongcaijing.com/images/contentformat/867b3b31bf5a4410ca85884cf283ce1f.jpg\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"588\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><b>2. Resident consumption: subsidies promote commodity consumption, the epidemic eases and the service industry repairs</b></p><p>In 21Q1, financial subsidies of up to 2,000 USD/person stimulated commodity consumption; The easing of the pandemic promoted the recovery of service consumption, but it was slightly weaker than the optimistic expectation of overseas markets in the previous period. 1) From a quarterly perspective, the personal consumption expenditure of the United States in 21Q1 drove GDP by 1.1 percentage points year-on-year, a substantial improvement of 3 percentage points compared with 20Q4. It jumped from the biggest drag on GDP in the fourth quarter to the biggest contribution, showing that the first quarter had the stimulating effect of the subsidy of 600 USD in January and the subsidy of 1,400 USD issued in March on consumption, and the gradual release of service consumption under the easing of the epidemic. 2) From the perspective of monthly high frequency, PCE reached 8.5% year-on-year and 3.7% month-on-month in March, and strengthened again after a slight drop in the vacuum period of direct subsidies in February. Among them, the year-on-year growth rate of durable goods and service consumption increased again, reaching 43.3% and 4.8% respectively in March, while non-durable goods slowed down slightly (4.3%) year-on-year, showing that the subsidy payment of $1,400 in March had an immediate stimulating effect on consumption, and the recovery of service consumption under the relaxation of prevention and control measures. However, judging from the intensity of service consumption recovery, it is actually slightly weaker than the overly optimistic expectation of overseas markets in February-March.</p><p><img src=\"http://img.zhitongcaijing.com/images/contentformat/fb6a3cdada866cc05b11f3b44abb7b40.jpg\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"398\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>Commodity consumption and service consumption jointly drive the high increase of personal consumption expenditure. 1) Commodity consumption is mainly driven by durable goods. In 21Q1, commodity consumption increased by 3.2 percentage points to GDP, an improvement of 1.5 percentage points compared with 20Q4, mainly due to the high increase of durable goods under the fiscal stimulus in the first quarter. In 21Q1, the contribution of durable goods to GDP improved significantly by 1.3 percentage points compared with the fourth quarter, while the contribution of non-durable goods to GDP only improved slightly by 0.3 percentage points; 2) The improvement of service consumption on GDP is greater than that of durable goods consumption. In 21Q1, although service consumption still had a negative pull of-1.4% on GDP, it has significantly improved by 1.6 percentage points compared with the previous quarter, which is even more than that of durable goods consumption, showing that service consumption has greater flexibility to improve under the dual factors of financial subsidy + epidemic easing.</p><p><img src=\"http://img.zhitongcaijing.com/images/contentformat/e8b1b37f95a3c799e28a194bc63e56e7.jpg\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"399\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><b>3. Investment: Equipment investment improved significantly, interest rates inhibited real estate investment, and inventory replenishment did not appear</b></p><p>The effect of non-residential investment on GDP has greatly improved, and private inventory has turned into a drag. In 21Q1, domestic private investment drove GDP by 0.8 percentage points year-on-year, a slight improvement of 0.1 percentage points compared with the fourth quarter.</p><p>1) Improvement in non-residential investment shows that the U.S. production sector has improved its expectations for the economic outlook. The main contributor to the improvement in private investment was non-residential investment (0.6 percentage point improvement), mainly from equipment investment, indicating that manufacturing enterprises remain optimistic about the prospect of economic recovery.</p><p>2) The decline in the year-on-year contribution of private inventory changes to 21Q1 GDP is the manifestation of the tear of supply and demand in the US economy. Strong demand and slow production recovery lead to the decline of inventory, which means that the strength of commodity prices in Q1 cannot be supported by the logic of strong industrial production and active inventory replenishment in the US. The main drag on private investment was the movement of private inventories (0.4 percentage point drag).</p><p>3) The year-on-year contribution of residential investment to GDP remained basically stable, while the month-on-month growth rate was suppressed with the overall rise of US interest rate in the previous period. It is expected that the follow-up will continue to cool with the medium-term upward process of interest rates. In 21Q1, the pull of residential investment on GDP remained stable, but with the gradual increase of mortgage interest rates in the past 21 years, the U.S. real estate market has cooled down, and the expenditure on residential construction and sales of existing houses have slowed down. It is expected that the pull effect of subsequent residential investment on GDP will gradually decline.</p><p><img src=\"http://img.zhitongcaijing.com/images/contentformat/8831f8bd60fdfc9671df61b6e741faaa.jpg\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"393\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><b>4. Government spending and net exports: Subsidies boost government spending, and the widening gap between supply and demand leads to a high increase in imports</b></p><p>The tear of supply and demand in the U.S. economy has led to the deepening of the drag of net exports on GDP. In 21Q1, net exports dragged down GDP by 2 percentage points year-on-year, and the degree of drag widened by 0.7 percentage points compared with the previous 20Q4. 1) Exports were dragged down by 1 percentage point, but they have improved by 0.2 percentage points compared with the previous quarter, showing a slight recovery of industrial production in the United States, but the improvement of personal consumption expenditure by 3.0 percentage points is still dwarfed by comparison, which actually reflects the widening of supply and demand gap in 21Q1 under excessive financial subsidies in the United States; 2) In 21Q1, imports dragged down GDP by 1.0 percentage points year-on-year, and the degree of drag greatly expanded by 0.9 percentage points compared with the previous quarter. The direct consequence of the widening gap between supply and demand in the United States is the expansion of import scale.</p><p>Government expenditure in 21Q1 increased GDP by 0.1 percentage point year-on-year, mainly due to the issuance of direct subsidy checks for residents by the U.S. government to the banking system and the cost of purchasing vaccines.</p><p><img src=\"http://img.zhitongcaijing.com/images/contentformat/1e6d4ceb162a00ae93de51b3cf6bb71b.jpg\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"386\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><b>5. It is expected that the U.S. economic recovery will be at a high point in the second quarter, and pay attention to the follow-up progress of the epidemic</b></p><p>Looking ahead, we believe that the strength of future U.S. economic recovery depends on the vaccination process and the spread of COVID-19. Under the assumption that the epidemic situation in the United States continues to ease and the service industry is gradually recovering, it is expected that the second quarter will be the high point of recovery of the United States economy. However, the tear between supply and demand caused by excessive subsidies will continue until September, and the strength of the recovery of the United States economy during the year may not be as strong as the market expectations.</p><p>Personal consumption expenditure: 1) Although 21Q1 commodity consumption shows an extremely strong momentum, we expect the first quarter to be the high point of commodity consumption, and it will gradually decline with the subsidy ebb; 2) The consumption of the service industry will continue to recover gradually as the epidemic eases, but the global epidemic has rebounded since March, especially in European countries and emerging countries. At the same time, the spread of more contagious virus variants in the United States and overseas countries will also affect the recovery intensity of the subsequent service industry.</p><p>Investment: 1) The main driving force of the improvement of non-residential investment in 21Q1 is the expectation of economic improvement. From the current point of view, the global epidemic is the core factor determining the intensity of economic recovery, and it is necessary to pay attention to the follow-up epidemic progress; 2) Residential investment will decline with the gradual cooling of the real estate market; 3) The change of private inventory, that is, the intensity of inventory replenishment, will depend on whether the current situation of supply and demand tearing in the United States can be eased. From the current point of view, it will take until the unemployment subsidy ends in September before there will be a significant bridging trend at both ends of supply and demand in the United States, which will then drive inventory investment.</p><p>Government expenditure and net exports: 1) With the continuous payment of unemployment subsidies in the second and third quarters, government expenditure is expected to continue to make a positive contribution to GDP year-on-year before the fourth quarter, and if the U.S. Employment Plan or the American Family Plan can be implemented within the year, it will also boost the level of government expenditure; In terms of net exports, exports will depend on the progress of the recovery of industrial production in the United States. As mentioned above, they will not be boosted until the fourth quarter, while imports, on the contrary, will fall back to normal levels as the supply-demand gap narrows later this year.</p><p><img src=\"http://img.zhitongcaijing.com/images/contentformat/32e1b124c2e79173310a2a69f29f1ee7.jpg\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"547\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><b>2. Global macro data: New confirmed cases in the United States declined</b></p><p><b>1. Epidemic: New confirmed cases in the United States decline</b></p><p>New confirmed cases in the U.S. dropped this week. The number of newly confirmed cases in the United States dropped to more than 53,000 on average on 7 days. As of April 29th, the global COVID-19 epidemic has been diagnosed more than 150 million, with 3.14 million deaths and 120 million recoveries. This week (April 27th-April 30th), there were 220,000 and 9,000 newly confirmed cases in the United States and the United Kingdom respectively.</p><p>As of April 28, Israel has received the most COVID-19 vaccines per 100 people worldwide, reaching 121.1 shots per 100 people, 70.2 shots per 100 people in the United States and 70.9 shots per 100 people in the United Kingdom. As of April 28, Israel had the highest proportion of fully vaccinated people in the world, at 58.7%, while the United States and Britain had 29.3% and 20.7% respectively.</p><p><img src=\"http://img.zhitongcaijing.com/images/contentformat/887a942234cb8fe459a2f83e1d51371f.jpg\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"591\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><img src=\"http://img.zhitongcaijing.com/images/contentformat/62573bfd15fa133a1b4a5d4e236f878d.jpg\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"397\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><b>2. Demand: Japanese retail sales picked up sharply year-on-year</b></p><p>Both retail sales and wholesale sales in Japan rose sharply year-on-year. Japan's retail sales index in March was 5.3% year-on-year, of which retail textiles and apparel were 15.8% year-on-year, and the wholesale sales index in March was 1.0% year-on-year.</p><p><img src=\"http://img.zhitongcaijing.com/images/contentformat/a115423dbfa92a2b68fd1ddba7b7202c.jpg\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"432\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>South Korea's retail sales continued to grow year-on-year in March, and semi-durable goods consumption increased significantly. South Korea's retail sales in March increased by 3.5 percentage points to 13.5% year-on-year, of which the consumption of semi-durable goods grew the fastest, 35.5% year-on-year; Durable goods were 13.6% and non-durable goods were 6.5% year-on-year.</p><p><img src=\"http://img.zhitongcaijing.com/images/contentformat/660433692ab7c356ac6e92af5532c956.jpg\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"549\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><b>3. Supply and employment: New orders for durable goods in the United States all rose year-on-year</b></p><p>The inventory of durable goods in the United States increased, and the growth rate of new orders both increased year-on-year. U.S. durable goods inventories reached $431.84 billion in March, up 1.0% month-over-month and 1.7% year-over-year. New orders for durable goods in the United States rose 0.5% month-on-month in March and rose sharply by 25% year-on-year.</p><p><img src=\"http://img.zhitongcaijing.com/images/contentformat/00d167c28987b587b0353bdb22cabcb3.jpg\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"397\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>Japan's unemployment rate fell to 2.6% in March. Japan's unemployment rate fell 0.3 percentage points to 2.6% in March from the previous month. South Korea's industrial production index increased year-on-year, and the industry continued to rebound. South Korea's industrial production index rose 5.7% year-on-year and 0.8% month-on-month to 112.6 in March.</p><p><img src=\"http://img.zhitongcaijing.com/images/contentformat/3e518f69ea70eb9423bd2c4c0800a9d4.jpg\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"393\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>U.S. industrial materials production continues to rise. 1) As of the week of April 24th, the weekly crude steel output in the United States increased by 43.6% year-on-year, and the capacity utilization rate increased slightly by 0.4 percentage points from last week to 78.4%; 2) U.S. refinery operable capacity utilization rose 0.4 percentage points to 85.4% as of April 23.</p><p><img src=\"http://img.zhitongcaijing.com/images/contentformat/08378049f4011957a1ca13a61b5f7ee9.jpg\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"395\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>The number of initial claims for unemployment benefits in the United States fell slightly that week, and the number of continuing claims for unemployment benefits rose slightly. On the week of April 24th, the number of initial unemployment claims in the United States reached 553,000, down 13,000 from last week; In the week of April 17th, the number of people who continued to claim unemployment benefits reached 3.66 million, an increase of 9,000 from the previous month.</p><p><img src=\"http://img.zhitongcaijing.com/images/contentformat/50abaebb23322c65845134f36edf2eac.jpg\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"550\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><b>4. Trade: U.S. imports and exports both rose sharply year-on-year in March</b></p><p>U.S. imports and exports both rose sharply year-on-year in March. The growth rate of U.S. exports in March rose sharply by 16.5 percentage points from the previous month to 11.5%, while imports increased by 20.6% year-on-year. The U.S. goods trade balance in March was-$90.59 billion.</p><p><img src=\"http://img.zhitongcaijing.com/images/contentformat/b94fcaf0b73f26e0f7e86a9f8b746b80.jpg\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"549\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><b>5. Inflation and commodities: Oil prices edge up</b></p><p>EIA crude oil inventories rose by 9 million barrels in the week of April 28, and U.S. crude oil production fell slightly by 100,000 barrels per day to 10.9 million barrels per day. As of April 29th, the weekly average price of WTI crude oil rose to $63.2/barrel; The average weekly price of Brent oil rose to $66.6/barrel.</p><p><img src=\"http://img.zhitongcaijing.com/images/contentformat/2ea9504a69c4ccccc0e74ff1a56da96e.jpg\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"396\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><img src=\"http://img.zhitongcaijing.com/images/contentformat/e2a42a869453a51bf63a352119f75e6a.jpg\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"402\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><b>6. Real estate: U.S. existing home contracted sales index rose year-on-year in March</b></p><p>The U.S. S&P/CS house price index rose for eight consecutive months in February. In February, the U.S. S&P/CS house price index rose by 11.9% year-on-year to 246.0, rising for eight consecutive months. The contracted sales index of existing homes in the United States in March was 23.3% year-on-year and 1.9% month-on-month.</p><p><img src=\"http://img.zhitongcaijing.com/images/contentformat/6ac3751240b8a02c34f4c66d93fb255b.jpg\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"398\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>Japan's new housing construction and construction orders rose sharply in March. In March, the construction of new houses in Japan started by 1.5% year-on-year and 18.1% month-on-month, and the number of construction orders in March was 12.5% year-on-year and 192.7% month-on-month, the highest increase in nearly a year.</p><p><img src=\"http://img.zhitongcaijing.com/images/contentformat/e961519800be12d5e185f10acff56a58.jpg\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"392\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>U.S. 5-year mortgage rates have fallen and 15-year, 30-year mortgage rates have risen. For the week ending April 29, 5-year mortgage rates fell 0.2 percentage points to 2.6%, while 15-year and 30-year mortgage rates rose to 2.3% and 3.0%, respectively. In the week ending April 23rd, the US MBA market index fell by 18.2 to 706.6, and the heat of the housing market dropped slightly.</p><p><img src=\"http://img.zhitongcaijing.com/images/contentformat/2eb2b206b830b79a11aed2265d986bec.jpg\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"395\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><b>7. Monetary policy and exchange rate: the US Dollar Index falls, gold prices are basically stable</b></p><p>This week, the Federal Reserve's interest rate meeting was held, Powell's speech was pigeon, the the US Dollar Index fell, and the gold price was basically stable. On April 28th, local time, the Federal Reserve announced the statement of the interest rate meeting. Powell said at the press conference after the meeting that it will still take some time to see substantial progress. Before that, the current scale of asset purchases will be maintained. It is not time to discuss Taper yet, and the the US Dollar Index continues to decline. As of April 29th, the US Dollar Index closed at 90.6140, down 0.7% from last week; The exchange rate of the euro and the pound against the US dollar (the exchange rate data of the pound as of the 28th) closed at 1.2129 and 1.3906 respectively, appreciating by 0.7% and depreciating by 0.2% respectively compared with last week; As the Bank of Canada led Taper, the Canadian dollar strengthened, closing at 1.2292, an appreciation of 1.7% from last week. This week, the average weekly price of gold in London was USD 1,774.8/oz, which was basically stable compared with last week, and the year-on-year increase decreased by 1.2pct to 3.6% compared with last week.</p><p><img src=\"http://img.zhitongcaijing.com/images/contentformat/c2e4e8d549f84a56f7d651806cc3a657.jpg\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"398\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><img src=\"http://img.zhitongcaijing.com/images/contentformat/09b461fbeb60aed3abf2e7ffd691b486.jpg\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"551\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> source：<a href=\"http://www.zhitongcaijing.com/content/detail/466474.html\">智通财经网</a></p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://img.zhitongcaijing.com/image/20210501/20210501134714_46528.png?x-oss-process=image/format,jpg/quality,Q_80/resize,w_250","relate_stocks":{".DJI":"道琼斯"},"source_url":"http://www.zhitongcaijing.com/content/detail/466474.html","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/6ca2dcdccfa2217fb20a0351f4efe814","article_id":"2132567538","content_text":"本文来自“申万宏源宏观”。摘要一、周观点：美国一季度GDP究竟是偏强还是偏弱?21Q1美国GDP同比0.4%，略低于市场预期。美国21Q1  GDP实际同比0.4%，疫情以来首次同比转正，环比1.6%。主要贡献因素为商品消费、服务消费、非住宅投资，显示出疫情改善+财政补贴下美国经济快速复苏。但主要拖累项为私人存货变动及进口，且实际上，美国一季度GDP增速是小幅低于市场预期的，显示市场对美国过度财政补贴导致生产恢复缓慢的认识不足，以及对疫情改善过度乐观的预期。居民消费：补贴推动商品消费，疫情缓和服务业修复。1)21Q1美国个人消费支出拉动GDP同比1.1个百分点，较20Q4大幅改善3个百分点。商品消费主要为耐用品推动，而服务消费对GDP拉动的改善幅度大于耐用品消费;2)月度高频角度，3月PCE同比8.5%，环比3.7%，在2月直接补贴真空期小幅回落后再度走强。显示3月1400美金补贴发放对于消费立竿见影的刺激效果，以及防控措施放松下服务消费的恢复。但从服务消费恢复的强度来看，实际上略弱于2-3月海外市场的过度乐观预期。投资：设备投资改善显著，利率抑制地产投资，补库存并未出现。21Q1国内私人投资拉动GDP同比0.8个百分点，较4季度小幅改善0.1个百分点。1)非住宅投资改善显示美国生产部门对经济前景预期有所改善;2)私人存货变动对21Q1  GDP同比贡献的下降是美国经济供需撕裂的体现，需求旺盛而生产恢复缓慢，从而导致库存下降，这也就意味着Q1大宗商品价格的走强并不能得到美国工业生产强劲、主动补库存逻辑的支持;3)住宅投资对GDP同比贡献基本保持稳定，环比增速则随前期美国利率的整体抬升而受到抑制。后续预计将随着利率的中期上行过程而持续降温。政府支出和净出口：补贴推动政府支出增加，供需缺口拉大导致进口高增。美国经济供需撕裂导致净出口对GDP拖累程度再度加深。21Q1净出口拖累GDP同比2个百分点，拖累程度较上20Q4扩大0.7个百分点。政府支出21Q1对GDP同比拉动0.1个百分点，主要由于美国政府向银行体系发放针对居民的直接补贴支票以及购买疫苗费用。预计美国经济复苏2季度为高点，关注疫情后续进展。我们认为未来美国经济恢复的强度依赖于疫苗接种进程，以及新冠疫情的扩散情况。在美国疫情持续缓和、服务业渐进修复的假设下，预计2季度为美国经济恢复高点，但由于过度补贴导致的供需撕裂情况将持续到9月份，年内美国经济恢复的强度或将不会如市场预期一般强劲。个人消费支出：预计1季度是商品消费高点，服务业消费将继续随着疫情缓和而渐进式恢复，但美国本土及海外国家传染性更强的病毒变种的传播也将影响后续服务业恢复强度;投资：非住宅投资的改善需要关注后续疫情进展。住宅投资将随着地产市场的逐步降温而走低;私人库存变动或要等到9月失业补贴结束之后得以改善。政府支出和净出口：政府支出预计将在4季度前持续对GDP同比形成正贡献。净出口将随着今年后期供需缺口的收窄而回到正常水平。二、全球宏观数据本周高频数据：美国耐用品新订单同环比均上升疫情：美国新增确诊病例下降。需求：日本零售销售同比大幅回升。供给与就业：美国耐用品新订单同环比均上升。贸易：美国3月进出口同比均大幅上升。通胀和大宗商品：油价小幅上行。房地产：美3月成屋签约销售指数上升。货币政策和汇率：美元指数下跌，黄金价格稳定。全球宏观日历：关注美国ISM制造业PMI正文一、周观点：美国一季度GDP究竟是偏强还是偏弱?1.21Q1美国GDP同比0.4%，略低于市场预期美国21Q1GDP实际同比0.4%，疫情以来首次同比转正，环比1.6%。主要贡献因素为商品消费、服务消费、非住宅投资，显示出疫情改善+财政补贴下美国经济相对较快的复苏。主要拖累项为私人存货变动及进口，且实际上，美国一季度GDP增速是小幅低于市场预期的，显示市场对美国过度财政补贴导致生产恢复缓慢的认识不足，以及对疫情改善过度乐观的预期。2.居民消费：补贴推动商品消费，疫情缓和服务业修复21Q1高达2000美金/人的财政补贴拉动商品消费;疫情缓和推动服务消费恢复，但略弱于前期海外市场乐观预期。1)从季度角度看，21Q1美国个人消费支出拉动GDP同比1.1个百分点，较20Q4大幅改善3个百分点，从4季度对GDP最大的拖累项一跃转为最大的贡献项，显示一季度同时具备1月600美金补贴以及3月开始发放的1400美金补贴对消费的刺激效果，以及疫情缓和下服务消费的渐次释放。2)而从月度高频角度，3月PCE同比达到8.5%，环比3.7%，在2月直接补贴真空期小幅回落后再度走强。其中，耐用品、服务消费同比增速再度提升，3月分别达到43.3%和4.8%，而非耐用品同比略有放缓(4.3%)，显示3月1400美金补贴发放对于消费立竿见影的刺激效果，以及防控措施放松下服务消费的恢复。但从服务消费恢复的强度来看，实际上略弱于2-3月海外市场的过度乐观预期。商品消费、服务消费共同驱动个人消费支出高增。1)商品消费主要为耐用品推动。21Q1商品消费对GDP拉动3.2个百分点，较20Q4改善1.5个百分点，主要归功于耐用品在一季度财政刺激下再度高增，21Q1耐用品对GDP贡献度较4季度大幅改善1.3个百分点，而非耐用品对GDP贡献度仅小幅改善0.3个百分点;2)服务消费对GDP拉动效果的改善幅度大于耐用品消费。21Q1服务消费对GDP虽然仍为-1.4%的负拉动，但已较上季度大幅改善1.6个百分点，改善幅度更甚于耐用品消费，显示出服务消费在财政补贴+疫情缓和双重因素下改善的弹性更大。3.投资：设备投资改善显著，利率抑制地产投资，补库存并未出现非住宅投资对GDP拉动效果大幅改善，私人存货转为拖累。21Q1国内私人投资拉动GDP同比0.8个百分点，较4季度小幅改善0.1个百分点。1)非住宅投资改善显示美国生产部门对经济前景预期有所改善。私人投资改善的主要贡献因素为非住宅投资(改善0.6个百分点)，其中主要来自于设备投资，显示制造业企业对经济恢复前景保持乐观。2)私人存货变动对21Q1  GDP同比贡献的下降是美国经济供需撕裂的体现，需求旺盛而生产恢复缓慢，从而导致库存下降，这也就意味着Q1大宗商品价格的走强并不能得到美国工业生产强劲、主动补库存逻辑的支持。拖累私人投资的主要因素为私人存货变动(拖累0.4个百分点)。3)住宅投资对GDP同比贡献基本保持稳定，环比增速则随前期美国利率的整体抬升而受到抑制。后续预计将随着利率的中期上行过程而持续降温。21Q1住宅投资对GDP的拉动保持稳定，但随着21年以来抵押贷款利率的逐步上行，美国房地产市场已经有所降温，住宅营建支出、成屋销售已经有所放缓，预计后续住宅投资对GDP的拉动效果将逐步下降。4.政府支出和净出口：补贴推动政府支出增加，供需缺口拉大导致进口高增美国经济供需撕裂导致净出口对GDP拖累程度再度加深。21Q1净出口拖累GDP同比2个百分点，拖累程度较上20Q4扩大0.7个百分点。1)出口拖累1个百分点，但已较上个季度改善0.2个百分点，显示美国工业生产的小幅恢复，但相比个人消费支出3.0个百分点的改善幅度仍然相形见绌，实际体现的是美国过度财政补贴下21Q1供需缺口的拉大;2)而进口在21Q1拖累GDP同比1.0个百分点，拖累程度较上季度大幅扩大0.9个百分点，美国供需缺口拉大的直接后果便是进口规模的扩大。政府支出21Q1对GDP同比拉动0.1个百分点，主要由于美国政府向银行体系发放针对居民的直接补贴支票以及购买疫苗费用。5.预计美国经济复苏2季度为高点，关注疫情后续进展展望未来，我们认为未来美国经济恢复的强度依赖于疫苗接种进程，以及新冠疫情的扩散情况。在美国疫情持续缓和、服务业渐进修复的假设下，预计2季度为美国经济恢复高点，但由于过度补贴导致的供需撕裂情况将持续到9月份，年内美国经济恢复的强度或将不会如市场预期一般强劲。个人消费支出：1)虽然21Q1商品消费显示出极为强劲的势头，但我们预计1季度已经是商品消费高点，后续将随着补贴退潮而逐步回落;2)服务业消费将继续随着疫情缓和而渐进式恢复，但3月以来全球疫情有所反弹，特别是在欧洲国家以及新兴国家，同时美国本土及海外国家传染性更强的病毒变种的传播也将影响后续服务业恢复强度。投资：1)21Q1非住宅投资的改善主要驱动力为经济向好预期，而从当前时点来看，全球疫情是决定经济恢复强度的核心因素，需要关注后续疫情进展;2)住宅投资将随着地产市场的逐步降温而走低;3)私人库存变动，即补库存的力度将依赖于美国供需撕裂的现状是否能够缓和，从当前来看，或要等到9月失业补贴结束之后，美国供需两端才能出现显著的弥合趋势，进而带动库存投资。政府支出和净出口：1)随着失业补贴在2、3季度的持续发放，政府支出预计将在4季度前持续对GDP同比形成正贡献，而如果美国就业计划或美国家庭计划能够在年内落地，也将提振政府支出水平;净出口方面，出口将依赖于美国工业生产恢复的进度，如上文所说，或要到4季度才能得到提振，进口则恰恰相反，将随着今年后期供需缺口的收窄而回落到正常水平。二、全球宏观数据：美国新增确诊病例下降1.疫情：美国新增确诊病例下降本周美国新增确诊病例下降。美国新增确诊7日平均下降至5.3万人以上。截止4月29日，全球新冠疫情累计确诊超过1.5亿，累计死亡病例314万人，累计康复病例1.2亿人。本周四天(4月27日-4月30日)美国、英国分别新增确诊病例22万人和0.9万人。截止4月28日，全球范围内平均每百人接种新冠疫苗最多的是以色列，达每百人121.1针，美国每百人70.2针，英国每百人70.9针。截止4月28日，全球范围内完全接种疫苗的人占人口比例最高的是以色列，达58.7%，美国、英国分别为29.3%、20.7%。2.需求：日本零售销售同比大幅回升日本零售销售和批发销售同比均大幅上行。日本3月零售销售指数同比5.3%，其中零售中纺织服装同比15.8%，3月批发销售指数同比1.0%。韩国3月零售销售同比持续增长，半耐用品消费大幅增长。韩国3月零售销售同比较上月上升3.5个百分点至13.5%，其中半耐用品消费增速最快，同比35.5%;耐用品同比13.6%，非耐用品同比6.5%。3.供给与就业：美国耐用品新订单同环比均上升美国耐用品库存上升，新订单增速同环比均上升。3月美国耐用品库存达4318.4亿美元，环比上升1.0%，同比增长1.7%。美国3月耐用品新订单环比上升0.5%，同比大幅上升25%。日本3月失业率下降至2.6%。3月日本失业率较上月下降0.3个百分点至2.6%。韩国工业生产指数同环比均上升，工业持续回升。韩国3月工业生产指数同比上升5.7%，环比上升0.8%至112.6。美国工业材料生产持续上升。1)截止4月24日当周，美国周度粗钢产量同比上升43.6%，产能利用率较上周小幅上升0.4个百分点至78.4%;2)截止4月23日，美国炼油厂可运营能力利用率上升0.4个百分点至85.4%。美国当周初请失业金人数小幅下降，持续申领失业金人数小幅上升。4月24日当周美国初请失业金人数达55.3万人，环比上周下降1.3万人;4月17日当周持续申领失业金人数达366万人，环比上升0.9万人。4.贸易：美国3月进出口同比均大幅上升美国3月进出口同比均大幅上升。美国3月出口增速较上月大幅上升16.5个百分点至11.5%，进口同比20.6%。美国3月份商品贸易差额为-905.9亿美元。5.通胀和大宗商品：油价小幅上行4月28日当周EIA原油库存上升900万桶，美国原油产量小幅下降10万桶/日至1090万桶/日。截止4月29日，WTI原油周均价上升至63.2美元/桶;布油周均价上升至66.6美元/桶。6.房地产：美国3月成屋签约销售指数同比上升美国2月标普/CS房价指数连续8个月上涨。2月美国标普/CS房价指数同比上升11.9%至246.0，连续8个月上涨。美国3月成屋签约销售指数同比大幅23.3%，环比1.9%。日本3月新屋开工、营建订单大幅上行。日本3月新屋开工同比1.5%，环比18.1%，3月营建订单数同比12.5%，环比192.7%，涨幅达到近一年最高。美国5年期抵押贷款利率下降，15年期、30年期抵押贷款利率上升。截止4月29日当周，5年期抵押贷款利率下降0.2个百分点至2.6%，15年期、30年期抵押贷款利率分别上升至2.3%和3.0%。截止4月23日当周，美国MBA市场指数下降18.2至706.6，房市热度小幅回落。7.货币政策和汇率：美元指数下跌，黄金价格基本稳定本周美联储议息会议召开，鲍威尔发言偏鸽，美元指数下跌，黄金价格基本稳定。当地时间4月28日，美联储公布议息会议声明，鲍威尔在会后新闻发布会上表示看到实质性进展仍需一些时间，在此之前会维持当前的资产购买规模，现在还未到讨论Taper的时间，美元指数持续下行。截至4月29日，美元指数报收90.6140，较上周下行0.7%;欧元、英镑兑美元汇率(英镑汇率数据截至28日)分别报收1.2129、1.3906，分别较上周升值0.7%、贬值0.2%;由于加拿大央行率先Taper，加元走强，报收1.2292，较上周升值1.7%。本周伦敦金周均价1774.8美元/盎司，较上周基本稳定，同比涨幅较上周下行1.2pct至3.6%。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"UBmain":0.9,"ZFmain":0.9,"ZNmain":0.9,".DJI":0.9,"ZBmain":0.9,"ZTmain":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1174,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":975192876,"gmtCreate":1600477207395,"gmtModify":1705064706487,"author":{"id":"3536928846214760","authorId":"3536928846214760","name":"東海吉龍","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0ef8466588cf515f97a20c636e2be8a0","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3536928846214760","authorIdStr":"3536928846214760"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"??","listText":"??","text":"??","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":2,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/975192876","repostId":"976538100","repostType":1,"repost":{"id":976538100,"gmtCreate":1599751203694,"gmtModify":1705062659052,"author":{"id":"3491416357875149","authorId":"3491416357875149","name":"Owen_Tradinghouse","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e18f8a3a764631dcc921c6316d840259","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3491416357875149","authorIdStr":"3491416357875149"},"themes":[],"title":"10个点的调整已经结束了吗？关于当前美股大盘，这里有你应了解的一切","htmlText":"標題裝個像，不喜勿噴? 納指終於在50日均線處企穩了，可能你現在最大的兩個問題就是： 第一：美股的暴跌是否已經結束？大盤會就此開始止跌回升嗎？ 第二：在下一輪的上漲中，科技股還是否會扮演領漲板塊的角色，什麼類型的股票纔是下一輪行情當中的首選呢？ 這次分享，咱們不說一些虛頭八腦的東西，直接解決上面兩個問題，而且只用邏輯和數據說話。 首先，美股大跌是否已經結束？ 大跌是結束了，但大幅震盪則是剛剛開始，像之前那樣納指單邊上揚的行情應該是不會再出現了。類似前幾個交易日那樣，突然的閃跌兩個到三個點情況，可能還會更多。 爲什麼？看下面納指ETF和vix的技術分析圖，雖然納指在50日均線處站穩，但波動率指數VIX並沒能隨着指數的反彈而跌破50日均線，反而停留在大跌前的位置，指數未來的波動仍然很大。從我經常跟蹤的幾個盤面指標看，技術面給出的信息很明顯，區間震盪。 你看，上方RIS已經跌破50均線，看多情緒降低不少，即便是出現反彈，RSI也沒能走破50的中軸線，其他MACD，和PPO都是死叉，負柱向下延伸，沒有企穩的跡象，成交量震盪指標PVO倒是出現背離價格的一波拉昇，短期成交量均線高出長期成交量均線不少，這說明目前價格趨勢向下，但在大跌後的這個價位有不少買盤認可。短期內跌破怕是不容易，但向上走也很難。 特別是能量潮OBV的滯漲，說明買賣盤兩方的力量均衡。 顯然，恐慌並沒有被充分的釋放出來，這次的調整就難以決定是不是已經築底。 我之前分享過多次的一個指標，A/D 積累曲線圖（不瞭解這個指標的朋友可以翻看下我之前的分享）他的50-50賣盤信號，也沒有被完全的觸發,指數觸及50日均線又被拉了上去，RSI的50均線反到是跌破。這個圖形也意味着盤面會圍繞目前的位置做拉鋸整理。 第一波的調整已經告一段落，而崩盤又是不可能的，所以就看大盤圍繞50日均線會做什麼文章吧，假如美聯儲沒有任何態度和行動上的變化","listText":"標題裝個像，不喜勿噴? 納指終於在50日均線處企穩了，可能你現在最大的兩個問題就是： 第一：美股的暴跌是否已經結束？大盤會就此開始止跌回升嗎？ 第二：在下一輪的上漲中，科技股還是否會扮演領漲板塊的角色，什麼類型的股票纔是下一輪行情當中的首選呢？ 這次分享，咱們不說一些虛頭八腦的東西，直接解決上面兩個問題，而且只用邏輯和數據說話。 首先，美股大跌是否已經結束？ 大跌是結束了，但大幅震盪則是剛剛開始，像之前那樣納指單邊上揚的行情應該是不會再出現了。類似前幾個交易日那樣，突然的閃跌兩個到三個點情況，可能還會更多。 爲什麼？看下面納指ETF和vix的技術分析圖，雖然納指在50日均線處站穩，但波動率指數VIX並沒能隨着指數的反彈而跌破50日均線，反而停留在大跌前的位置，指數未來的波動仍然很大。從我經常跟蹤的幾個盤面指標看，技術面給出的信息很明顯，區間震盪。 你看，上方RIS已經跌破50均線，看多情緒降低不少，即便是出現反彈，RSI也沒能走破50的中軸線，其他MACD，和PPO都是死叉，負柱向下延伸，沒有企穩的跡象，成交量震盪指標PVO倒是出現背離價格的一波拉昇，短期成交量均線高出長期成交量均線不少，這說明目前價格趨勢向下，但在大跌後的這個價位有不少買盤認可。短期內跌破怕是不容易，但向上走也很難。 特別是能量潮OBV的滯漲，說明買賣盤兩方的力量均衡。 顯然，恐慌並沒有被充分的釋放出來，這次的調整就難以決定是不是已經築底。 我之前分享過多次的一個指標，A/D 積累曲線圖（不瞭解這個指標的朋友可以翻看下我之前的分享）他的50-50賣盤信號，也沒有被完全的觸發,指數觸及50日均線又被拉了上去，RSI的50均線反到是跌破。這個圖形也意味着盤面會圍繞目前的位置做拉鋸整理。 第一波的調整已經告一段落，而崩盤又是不可能的，所以就看大盤圍繞50日均線會做什麼文章吧，假如美聯儲沒有任何態度和行動上的變化","text":"標題裝個像，不喜勿噴? 納指終於在50日均線處企穩了，可能你現在最大的兩個問題就是： 第一：美股的暴跌是否已經結束？大盤會就此開始止跌回升嗎？ 第二：在下一輪的上漲中，科技股還是否會扮演領漲板塊的角色，什麼類型的股票纔是下一輪行情當中的首選呢？ 這次分享，咱們不說一些虛頭八腦的東西，直接解決上面兩個問題，而且只用邏輯和數據說話。 首先，美股大跌是否已經結束？ 大跌是結束了，但大幅震盪則是剛剛開始，像之前那樣納指單邊上揚的行情應該是不會再出現了。類似前幾個交易日那樣，突然的閃跌兩個到三個點情況，可能還會更多。 爲什麼？看下面納指ETF和vix的技術分析圖，雖然納指在50日均線處站穩，但波動率指數VIX並沒能隨着指數的反彈而跌破50日均線，反而停留在大跌前的位置，指數未來的波動仍然很大。從我經常跟蹤的幾個盤面指標看，技術面給出的信息很明顯，區間震盪。 你看，上方RIS已經跌破50均線，看多情緒降低不少，即便是出現反彈，RSI也沒能走破50的中軸線，其他MACD，和PPO都是死叉，負柱向下延伸，沒有企穩的跡象，成交量震盪指標PVO倒是出現背離價格的一波拉昇，短期成交量均線高出長期成交量均線不少，這說明目前價格趨勢向下，但在大跌後的這個價位有不少買盤認可。短期內跌破怕是不容易，但向上走也很難。 特別是能量潮OBV的滯漲，說明買賣盤兩方的力量均衡。 顯然，恐慌並沒有被充分的釋放出來，這次的調整就難以決定是不是已經築底。 我之前分享過多次的一個指標，A/D 積累曲線圖（不瞭解這個指標的朋友可以翻看下我之前的分享）他的50-50賣盤信號，也沒有被完全的觸發,指數觸及50日均線又被拉了上去，RSI的50均線反到是跌破。這個圖形也意味着盤面會圍繞目前的位置做拉鋸整理。 第一波的調整已經告一段落，而崩盤又是不可能的，所以就看大盤圍繞50日均線會做什麼文章吧，假如美聯儲沒有任何態度和行動上的變化","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2b93be211dfc6d634afddac8fa4fa00d","width":"1080","height":"586"},{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3f1ea78884f057833b0ce66cd2f58cbd","width":"878","height":"489"},{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4e2795092660ed23c1fb2b19a5421591","width":"800","height":"816"}],"top":1,"highlighted":2,"essential":2,"paper":2,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/976538100","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":0,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":22,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":539,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[{"author":{"id":"3527667803686145","authorId":"3527667803686145","name":"社区成长助手","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2b7c7106b5c0c8b0037faa67439d898f","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"idStr":"3527667803686145","authorIdStr":"3527667803686145"},"content":"Finally, when you first post [compare heart] [compare heart] post, you can get more exposure by related stocks or related topics. If you want to create high-quality articles, please checkGuidelines for Tiger Community Creation","text":"Finally, when you first post [compare heart] [compare heart] post, you can get more exposure by related stocks or related topics. If you want to create high-quality articles, please checkGuidelines for Tiger Community Creation","html":"Finally, when you first post [compare heart] [compare heart] post, you can get more exposure by related stocks or related topics. If you want to create high-quality articles, please checkGuidelines for Tiger Community Creation"}],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":131283763,"gmtCreate":1621863226252,"gmtModify":1704363464048,"author":{"id":"3536928846214760","authorId":"3536928846214760","name":"東海吉龍","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0ef8466588cf515f97a20c636e2be8a0","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3536928846214760","authorIdStr":"3536928846214760"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"666","listText":"666","text":"666","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/131283763","repostId":"1120894920","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":4001,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":104068993,"gmtCreate":1620345931912,"gmtModify":1704342217749,"author":{"id":"3536928846214760","authorId":"3536928846214760","name":"東海吉龍","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0ef8466588cf515f97a20c636e2be8a0","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3536928846214760","authorIdStr":"3536928846214760"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"666","listText":"666","text":"666","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/104068993","repostId":"2133691576","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"2133691576","kind":"news","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"为用户提供金融资讯、行情、数据，旨在帮助投资者理解世界，做投资决策。","home_visible":1,"media_name":"老虎资讯综合","id":"102","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba"},"pubTimestamp":1620333000,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/2133691576?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2021-05-07 04:30","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"Dropbox Q1 revenue of $510 million, net income up 21% year over year","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2133691576","media":"老虎资讯综合","summary":"5月7日，云存储服务提供商Dropbox美股盘后公布了该公司的2021财年第一季度财报。报告显示，Dropbox第一季度总营收为5.116亿美元，与上年同期的4.550亿美元相比增长12%，不计入汇率","content":"<p>May 7, Cloud Storage Service Providers<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AMC\">Dropbox</a>U.S. stocks reported the company's first quarter fiscal 2021 earnings after the bell. According to the report, Dropbox's total revenue in the first quarter was US$511.6 million, an increase of 12% compared with US$455.0 million in the same period of last year. Excluding the impact of exchange rate changes, it was an increase of 11% year-on-year; Net income of $47.6 million, up 21% from net income of $39.3 million in the same period last year; Non-GAAP adjusted net income was $141.8 million, compared to $69.8 million a year earlier.</p><p>Dropbox's first-quarter revenue and adjusted earnings per share both beat Wall Street analysts' estimates, driving its shares up nearly 2% after hours.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7cdec3e6dcc56ee4828167017836a71e\" tg-width=\"1302\" tg-height=\"833\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><b>First quarter results summary:</b></p><p>Dropbox's total revenue in the first quarter was $511.6 million, an increase of 12% compared with $455.0 million in the same period last year. Excluding the impact of exchange rate changes, it was an increase of 11% year-on-year, which exceeded Wall Street analysts' expectations. According to<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/YHOO\">Yahoo</a>According to the data provided by the financial channel, nine analysts had expected Dropbox's total revenue in the first quarter to reach $505.18 million on average.</p><p>On a U.S. GAAP basis, Dropbox's first-quarter net income was $47.6 million, up 21% compared to a year-ago net income of $39.3 million. Excluding certain one-time items (not in accordance with U.S. GAAP), Dropbox reported adjusted net income of $141.8 million in the first quarter, compared to $69.8 million in the prior-year quarter.</p><p>On a U.S. GAAP basis, Dropbox's diluted earnings per share attributable to common shareholders were $0.12 in the first quarter, compared to $0.09 in the year-ago quarter. Excluding certain one-time items (not in accordance with U.S. GAAP), Dropbox's diluted earnings per share attributable to common shareholders were $0.35 in the first quarter, compared to $0.17 in the year-ago quarter, a performance that also beat Wall Street analysts' expectations. According to<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/YHOO\">Yahoo</a>According to data provided by the financial channel, the average of 10 analysts had expected Dropbox to report adjusted earnings of $0.3 per share in the first quarter.</p><p>Dropbox posted a gross profit of $402.3 million in the first quarter, compared to a gross profit of $351.9 million a year earlier. Dropbox earned $42.5 million from operations in the first quarter, compared to $26.8 million a year earlier.</p><p>Dropbox's total operating expenses were $359.8 million in the first quarter, compared to $325.1 million in the prior-year quarter. Of these, R&D expenditure was US$181.2 million, compared to US$181.8 million in the same period last year; Sales and marketing expenses were $102.7 million, compared to $104.3 million a year earlier; General and administrative expenses were $58.6 million, compared to $39 million in the prior year period; Impairment charges related to real assets were US$17.3 million, compared to no such charge in the same period last year.</p><p>Dropbox's total ARR (Accounting Yield Method, a measure of profitability) was $2.112 billion at the end of the first quarter, up 13% compared to the year-ago quarter. Excluding the impact of currency movements, Dropbox's total ARR at the end of the first quarter increased by $60.5 million compared to the previous quarter and 12% compared to the prior year quarter.</p><p>Dropbox had 15.83 million paid subscribers at the end of the first quarter, compared to 14.59 million at the end of the first quarter of fiscal 2020; The average revenue per paid user was $132.55, compared to $126.30 in the prior-year quarter.</p><p>On a U.S. GAAP basis, Dropbox had a gross margin of 78.6% in the first quarter, compared to 77.3% a year earlier. Excluding certain one-time items (not in accordance with U.S. GAAP), Dropbox's first-quarter gross margin was 80.2%, compared to 78.3% in the prior-year quarter.</p><p>On a U.S. GAAP basis, Dropbox's operating margin was 8.3% in the first quarter, compared to 5.9% a year earlier. Excluding certain one-time items (not in accordance with U.S. GAAP), Dropbox's operating margin was 29.1% in the first quarter, compared to 16.1% a year earlier.</p><p>Dropbox's net cash from business operating activities in the first quarter was $115.7 million, compared with $53.3 million in the same period last year. Dropbox's operating cash flow in the first quarter was $108.8 million, compared to $25.5 million in the prior-year quarter.</p><p>At the end of the first quarter, Dropbox held cash and cash equivalents and short-term investments totaling $1.916 billion.</p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Dropbox Q1 revenue of $510 million, net income up 21% year over year</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nDropbox Q1 revenue of $510 million, net income up 21% year over year\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/102\">\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">老虎资讯综合 </p>\n<p class=\"h-time smaller\">2021-05-07 04:30</p>\n</div>\n</a>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>May 7, Cloud Storage Service Providers<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AMC\">Dropbox</a>U.S. stocks reported the company's first quarter fiscal 2021 earnings after the bell. According to the report, Dropbox's total revenue in the first quarter was US$511.6 million, an increase of 12% compared with US$455.0 million in the same period of last year. Excluding the impact of exchange rate changes, it was an increase of 11% year-on-year; Net income of $47.6 million, up 21% from net income of $39.3 million in the same period last year; Non-GAAP adjusted net income was $141.8 million, compared to $69.8 million a year earlier.</p><p>Dropbox's first-quarter revenue and adjusted earnings per share both beat Wall Street analysts' estimates, driving its shares up nearly 2% after hours.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7cdec3e6dcc56ee4828167017836a71e\" tg-width=\"1302\" tg-height=\"833\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><b>First quarter results summary:</b></p><p>Dropbox's total revenue in the first quarter was $511.6 million, an increase of 12% compared with $455.0 million in the same period last year. Excluding the impact of exchange rate changes, it was an increase of 11% year-on-year, which exceeded Wall Street analysts' expectations. According to<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/YHOO\">Yahoo</a>According to the data provided by the financial channel, nine analysts had expected Dropbox's total revenue in the first quarter to reach $505.18 million on average.</p><p>On a U.S. GAAP basis, Dropbox's first-quarter net income was $47.6 million, up 21% compared to a year-ago net income of $39.3 million. Excluding certain one-time items (not in accordance with U.S. GAAP), Dropbox reported adjusted net income of $141.8 million in the first quarter, compared to $69.8 million in the prior-year quarter.</p><p>On a U.S. GAAP basis, Dropbox's diluted earnings per share attributable to common shareholders were $0.12 in the first quarter, compared to $0.09 in the year-ago quarter. Excluding certain one-time items (not in accordance with U.S. GAAP), Dropbox's diluted earnings per share attributable to common shareholders were $0.35 in the first quarter, compared to $0.17 in the year-ago quarter, a performance that also beat Wall Street analysts' expectations. According to<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/YHOO\">Yahoo</a>According to data provided by the financial channel, the average of 10 analysts had expected Dropbox to report adjusted earnings of $0.3 per share in the first quarter.</p><p>Dropbox posted a gross profit of $402.3 million in the first quarter, compared to a gross profit of $351.9 million a year earlier. Dropbox earned $42.5 million from operations in the first quarter, compared to $26.8 million a year earlier.</p><p>Dropbox's total operating expenses were $359.8 million in the first quarter, compared to $325.1 million in the prior-year quarter. Of these, R&D expenditure was US$181.2 million, compared to US$181.8 million in the same period last year; Sales and marketing expenses were $102.7 million, compared to $104.3 million a year earlier; General and administrative expenses were $58.6 million, compared to $39 million in the prior year period; Impairment charges related to real assets were US$17.3 million, compared to no such charge in the same period last year.</p><p>Dropbox's total ARR (Accounting Yield Method, a measure of profitability) was $2.112 billion at the end of the first quarter, up 13% compared to the year-ago quarter. Excluding the impact of currency movements, Dropbox's total ARR at the end of the first quarter increased by $60.5 million compared to the previous quarter and 12% compared to the prior year quarter.</p><p>Dropbox had 15.83 million paid subscribers at the end of the first quarter, compared to 14.59 million at the end of the first quarter of fiscal 2020; The average revenue per paid user was $132.55, compared to $126.30 in the prior-year quarter.</p><p>On a U.S. GAAP basis, Dropbox had a gross margin of 78.6% in the first quarter, compared to 77.3% a year earlier. Excluding certain one-time items (not in accordance with U.S. GAAP), Dropbox's first-quarter gross margin was 80.2%, compared to 78.3% in the prior-year quarter.</p><p>On a U.S. GAAP basis, Dropbox's operating margin was 8.3% in the first quarter, compared to 5.9% a year earlier. Excluding certain one-time items (not in accordance with U.S. GAAP), Dropbox's operating margin was 29.1% in the first quarter, compared to 16.1% a year earlier.</p><p>Dropbox's net cash from business operating activities in the first quarter was $115.7 million, compared with $53.3 million in the same period last year. Dropbox's operating cash flow in the first quarter was $108.8 million, compared to $25.5 million in the prior-year quarter.</p><p>At the end of the first quarter, Dropbox held cash and cash equivalents and short-term investments totaling $1.916 billion.</p>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3a51a02ea9a24f4d4f0b9e4e8e4c6bc7","relate_stocks":{"DBX":"Dropbox Inc."},"is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2133691576","content_text":"5月7日，云存储服务提供商Dropbox美股盘后公布了该公司的2021财年第一季度财报。报告显示，Dropbox第一季度总营收为5.116亿美元，与上年同期的4.550亿美元相比增长12%，不计入汇率变动的影响为同比增长11%；净利润为4760万美元，与上年同期的净利润3930万美元相比增长21%；不按照美国通用会计准则的调整后净利润为1.418亿美元，相比之下上年同期为6980万美元。\nDropbox第一季度营收和调整后每股收益均超出华尔街分析师预期，从而推动其盘后股价上涨近2%。\n\n第一季度业绩概要：\nDropbox第一季度总营收为5.116亿美元，与上年同期的4.550亿美元相比增长12%，不计入汇率变动的影响为同比增长11%，这一业绩超出华尔街分析师预期。据雅虎财经频道提供的数据显示，9名分析师此前平均预期Dropbox第一季度总营收将达5.0518亿美元。\n按照美国通用会计准则，Dropbox第一季度净利润为4760万美元，与上年同期的净利润3930万美元相比增长21%。不计入某些一次性项目（不按照美国通用会计准则），Dropbox第一季度的调整后净利润为1.418亿美元，相比之下上年同期为6980万美元。\n按照美国通用会计准则，Dropbox第一季度归属于普通股股东的每股摊薄收益为0.12美元，相比之下去年同期为0.09美元。不计入某些一次性项目（不按照美国通用会计准则），Dropbox第一季度归属于普通股股东的每股摊薄收益为0.35美元，相比之下去年同期为0.17美元，这一业绩也超出华尔街分析师预期。据雅虎财经频道提供的数据显示，10名分析师此前平均预期Dropbox第一季度调整后每股收益将达0.3美元。\nDropbox第一季度毛利润为4.023亿美元，相比之下上年同期的毛利润为3.519亿美元。Dropbox第一季度运营利润为4250万美元，相比之下上年同期为2680万美元。\nDropbox第一季度总运营支出为3.598亿美元，相比之下上年同期为3.251亿美元。其中，研发支出为1.812亿美元，相比之下上年同期为1.818亿美元；销售和营销支出为1.027亿美元，相比之下上年同期为1.043亿美元；总务和行政支出为5860万美元，相比之下上年同期为3900万美元；与不动产资产相关的减值支出为1730万美元，而上年同期并无这项支出。\n截至第一季度末，Dropbox的总ARR（会计收益率法，一种衡量盈利性的方法）为21.12亿美元，与上年同期相比增长13%。不计入汇率变动影响，Dropbox截至第一季度末的总ARR与上一季度相比增长6050万美元，与上年同期相比增长12%。\n截至第一季度末，Dropbox的付费用户人数为1583万人，相比之下截至2020财年第一季度末为1459万人；平均每付费用户收入为132.55美元，相比之下上年同期为126.30美元。\n按照美国通用会计准则，Dropbox第一季度毛利率为78.6%，相比之下上年同期为77.3%。不计入某些一次性项目（不按照美国通用会计准则），Dropbox第一季度毛利率为80.2%，相比之下上年同期为78.3%。\n按照美国通用会计准则，Dropbox第一季度运营利润率为8.3%，相比之下上年同期为5.9%。不计入某些一次性项目（不按照美国通用会计准则），Dropbox第一季度运营利润率为29.1%，相比之下上年同期为16.1%。\nDropbox第一季度来自于业务运营活动的净现金为1.157亿美元，相比之下上年同期为5330万美元。Dropbox第一季度运营现金流为1.088亿美元，相比之下上年同期为2550万美元。\n截至第一季度末，Dropbox所持现金和现金等价物以及短期投资总额为19.16亿美元。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"DBX":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":4722,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":374212552,"gmtCreate":1619448102976,"gmtModify":1704724098062,"author":{"id":"3536928846214760","authorId":"3536928846214760","name":"東海吉龍","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0ef8466588cf515f97a20c636e2be8a0","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3536928846214760","authorIdStr":"3536928846214760"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"666","listText":"666","text":"666","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/374212552","repostId":"1112124246","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1112124246","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1619446921,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1112124246?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2021-04-26 22:22","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"Nonferrous sector moves higher as copper soars to decade high","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1112124246","media":"智通财经","summary":"高盛将未来12个月铜目标价提高到1.1万美元/吨。","content":"<p>On April 26th (Monday), the non-ferrous metal plate rose intraday. As of press time,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/FCX\">McMoRan Copper & Gold</a>rose by more than 6%,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AA\">Alcoa</a>Up more than 5%,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TRQ\">Turquoise Hill Resources</a>It rose by more than 4%, and Albemarle of the United States rose by more than 3%.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4747a8a90284928bc8ab8f9768b760f4\" tg-width=\"840\" tg-height=\"470\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>Previously, global copper prices soared to the highest level in a decade, with LUN copper rising to $9,700/t at one point. Includes<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/GS\">Goldman Sachs</a>Other institutions believe that considering the important role of copper in the green energy transition, the climate goals of various countries will make this round of copper price rebound the beginning of a longer-dimensional copper price rise.</p><p>Goldman Sachs raised its copper target price for the next 12 months to $11,000/ton, an increase of $500, or nearly 4.8%, from its reaffirmed 12-month copper target price two weeks ago.</p>","source":"highlight_zhitongcaijin","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Nonferrous sector moves higher as copper soars to decade high</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nNonferrous sector moves higher as copper soars to decade high\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">智通财经</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-04-26 22:22</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>On April 26th (Monday), the non-ferrous metal plate rose intraday. As of press time,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/FCX\">McMoRan Copper & Gold</a>rose by more than 6%,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AA\">Alcoa</a>Up more than 5%,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TRQ\">Turquoise Hill Resources</a>It rose by more than 4%, and Albemarle of the United States rose by more than 3%.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4747a8a90284928bc8ab8f9768b760f4\" tg-width=\"840\" tg-height=\"470\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>Previously, global copper prices soared to the highest level in a decade, with LUN copper rising to $9,700/t at one point. Includes<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/GS\">Goldman Sachs</a>Other institutions believe that considering the important role of copper in the green energy transition, the climate goals of various countries will make this round of copper price rebound the beginning of a longer-dimensional copper price rise.</p><p>Goldman Sachs raised its copper target price for the next 12 months to $11,000/ton, an increase of $500, or nearly 4.8%, from its reaffirmed 12-month copper target price two weeks ago.</p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> source：<a href=\"https://www.zhitongcaijing.com/content/detail/458639.html\">智通财经</a></p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/eeb9a4d452d8568bcc6a2558535ad160","relate_stocks":{"FCX":"麦克莫兰铜金","AA":"美国铝业"},"source_url":"https://www.zhitongcaijing.com/content/detail/458639.html","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/6ca2dcdccfa2217fb20a0351f4efe814","article_id":"1112124246","content_text":"4月26日(周一)，有色金属板块盘中走高，截至发稿，麦克莫兰铜金涨超6%，美国铝业涨超5%，Turquoise Hill Resources涨超4%，美国雅宝公司涨超3%。此前全球铜价飙升至十年来的最高水平，伦铜一度升至9700美元/吨。包括高盛等机构认为，考虑到铜在绿色能源转型中的重要作用，各国的气候目标将使本轮铜价反弹成为更长维度铜价上涨的开始。高盛将未来12个月铜目标价提高到1.1万美元/吨，较两周前其重申的12个月铜目标价上调500美元，升幅将近4.8%。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"TRQ":0.9,"FCX":0.9,"AA":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1120,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":395211797,"gmtCreate":1607670566019,"gmtModify":1704971623587,"author":{"id":"3536928846214760","authorId":"3536928846214760","name":"東海吉龍","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0ef8466588cf515f97a20c636e2be8a0","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3536928846214760","authorIdStr":"3536928846214760"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"??","listText":"??","text":"??","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/395211797","repostId":"1153666475","repostType":2,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1106,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":132724324,"gmtCreate":1622117672068,"gmtModify":1704179755218,"author":{"id":"3536928846214760","authorId":"3536928846214760","name":"東海吉龍","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0ef8466588cf515f97a20c636e2be8a0","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3536928846214760","authorIdStr":"3536928846214760"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"666","listText":"666","text":"666","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/132724324","repostId":"1171660212","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1171660212","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1622115884,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1171660212?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2021-05-27 19:44","market":"hk","language":"zh","title":"The United States buys time with money, and the whole world enters the \"new mediocre era\"","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1171660212","media":"投资作业本","summary":"全球化配置的时代已经开始了。","content":"<p>This year, the U.S. stock market is not a bear market, and the appearance of a bear market is definitely a global systemic risk. \"The Fed's monetary policy framework has been very different from before since 2019, and it has completely changed. Now many investors, especially those in mainland China, always think that the U.S. stock market is going to collapse and the United States is going to end. The inflation of U.S. stocks is so high and the economy is so good. The United States is simply overheated. No matter how you think about it, you think that the Federal Reserve should speed up the pace of tightening. But in fact, this kind of thinking uses an\" old map \", and you think that the Federal Reserve used to focus on inflation and pay more attention to inflation than others.\"</p><p>\"In the second half of the year, the U.S. economy will have a resilience. It's not that it will jump down from 18 floors at once, but that it will maintain a range shock, and the kinetic energy of the whole marginal growth will weaken. There is no need to carry out stimulus policies at this time. This is the first point. The dimension of U.S. economic growth will slow down, and the kinetic energy of the ring-on-ring will weaken.\"</p><p>\"In the second half of the year, the unemployment rate (in the United States) will ease….. This round of unemployment rate in the United States will decline relatively smoothly, rather than rapidly and steeply….. (Federal Reserve) Their focus is also on employment. Before the United States achieves full employment and the pressure of social conflicts eases, it is difficult for the United States to put away the water at once.\"</p><p>\"The inflation in the second half of the year in the United States will not go down at once. The peak of inflation is in the second quarter, but the inflation may still hover at a high level in the second half of the year, and the Federal Reserve needs to control the real interest rate in the United States.\"</p><p>\"Under the background of the current game between great powers, we think that the United States buys time with money. This is a re-creation of the American dream, which means that both the US dollar, the US dollar exchange rate and the US long-term bond interest rate will eventually obey the so-called new American dream, and use money to buy time, the time for the US economic recovery and the time for the expansion of domestic demand in the United States. In the near future, whether with South Korea or some regions, the United States hopes that the advanced manufacturing industries in these regions can come to the United States, buy the time for manufacturing to return to the United States, and buy the time for American scientific and technological innovation and upgrading.\"</p><p>\"Before the policy shift, it can actually be expected that the Fed will guide the market's expectations. And before the Fed's policy, there may be other policies, including taxation.\"</p><p>\"The Fed's policy is equivalent to the main valve of global liquidity. At least this year and even the first quarter of next year, it is still difficult for us to see the tightening of this main valve.\"</p><p>\"These companies that can push the backbone of the US stock index to rise are not expensive, not expensive in the world, and not expensive compared with A shares. On the contrary, they are relatively weak, and the more thematic ones are more expensive.\"</p><p>\"U.S. stocks are definitely not a bear market. At this time, a bear market in U.S. stocks must be a global systemic risk... As long as U.S. stocks are not a big bear, it is a bull or structural market, which brings opportunities to other markets around the world.\"</p><p>\"Don't think that the US stock index is very cattle, ignoring the specialized and institutionalized characteristics of the US stock market. I have always said that we should try to buy funds and fix investment funds as much as possible, so that professional investors can participate in US stocks. Don't consider the US stock market with the idea of speculating in A shares and retail investors.\"</p><p>\"The world has entered an era of low growth and low interest rate, which is a new era of mediocrity. At this stage, we have to find the best companies in the world... The era of global allocation has begun.\"</p><p>On May 25th, Zhang Yidong, global chief strategist of Industrial Securities, shared the above views in the live broadcast of \"Cloud Conference-Global Capital Market Linkage, What is the Value of US Stock Allocation?\" held by China Business News.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f539f1c96458b7ed999579cf5647d0ff\" tg-width=\"677\" tg-height=\"457\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>The following is the essence of the investment workbook, which is shared with you:</p><p><b>The Fed's monetary policy framework is so different that we can't think old-fashioned</b></p><p>Q: For the first time since the outbreak, Fed officials discussed the possibility of tightening monetary policy. What does this mean for global markets?</p><p>Zhang Yidong: If you try to find the way to the future with the old map, you think that the Fed's contraction and bond purchase this time may be further tightened in the distant future. The method is wrong. On the other hand, if you have done more in-depth research on the US stock market, you will find that the Fed's monetary policy framework has been very different from before since 2019, and it has completely changed.</p><p>Nowadays, many investors, especially those in mainland China, always think that U.S. stocks are going to collapse and the United States is going to end. The inflation of U.S. stocks is so high and the economy is so good. The United States is simply overheated. No matter how you think about it, you think that the Federal Reserve should speed up the pace of tightening. However, in fact, this kind of thinking uses an \"old map\", and you think that the Federal Reserve used to focus on inflation and pay more attention to it than anything else.</p><p><b>The US economy remains resilient in the second half of the year, and no stimulus is needed at this time</b></p><p>In the second half of the year, the U.S. economy will have a resilience. It is not that it will jump down from 18 floors at once, but it will maintain a range shock, and the kinetic energy of the whole marginal growth will weaken. There is no need to carry out stimulus policies at this time. This is the first point. The dimension of U.S. economic growth will slow down, and the kinetic energy of the month-on-month will weaken.</p><p>Second, from the perspective of unemployment rate, the economic data in April is very good. The unemployment rate is 6.1%, a little higher than in March, which is from simple to luxurious easy, from luxurious to simple difficult. In the past year, the United States has experienced three rounds of water release and bail-out. The low-and middle-income people in the United States will take the bail-out money to be Happy first and spend it first. The savings rate in the United States is still as high as 13.6%, and the average in American history is 6-8%, which is its normal savings rate level, so it is not in a hurry to work and find a job. In this case, the unemployment rate is relatively high.</p><p><b>The Fed is still focused on jobs</b></p><p>In the second half of the year, the unemployment rate will ease because he is looking for a job and the savings rate will fall. However, the economy of the United States will not be so bad in the second half of the year. He may just work odd jobs, which will make the unemployment rate in the United States decline relatively smoothly, rather than rapidly and steeply.</p><p>The Federal Reserve pays more attention to the unemployment rate, so that when the inflation data appeared in April, on May 12th, US time, the inflation in the United States greatly exceeded expectations, and the market was in an uproar. At that time, many risky assets plummeted, triggering a small global turmoil that day.</p><p>However, immediately, several big figures with voting rights in the Fed, the vice chairman of the Fed, including another important official, suggested that they saw the data and suggested that the employment factor was more worrying than the inflation caused by the short-term transitional supply factor, so their focus was still on employment. Before the United States achieves full employment and the pressure of social conflicts eases, it is difficult to put away the water in the United States at once.</p><p>U.S. inflation peaked in the second quarter, and inflation high hovered in the second half of the year</p><p>Third, the inflation in the second half of the year in the United States will not go down at once. The peak of inflation is in the second quarter, but the inflation may still hover at a high level in the second half of the year, and the Federal Reserve needs to control the real interest rate in the United States.</p><p><b>The United States buys time with money</b></p><p>Real interest rates are very important to the recovery of the US economy, and in turn play a guiding role in nominal interest rates. As you can see, obviously, everyone was worried in mid-March, but in mid-March, we clearly stated that the yield of U.S. long-term bonds would not pose a systemic risk. Under the current background of the big-power game, we think that the United States is buying time with money, which is a re-creation of the American dream, which means that both the U.S. dollar, the exchange rate of the U.S. dollar and the interest rate of the U.S. long-term bonds will eventually obey the so-called new American dream, and use money to buy time, the recovery of the U.S. economy and the expansion of domestic demand in the United States. Recently, whether with South Korea or some regions, the United States hopes that the advanced manufacturing industries in these regions can come to the United States, buy time for manufacturing to return to the United States, and buy time for American scientific and technological innovation and upgrading.</p><p>Generally speaking, in the current state, whether it is employment, inflation or the United States to enhance its competitiveness and maintain the sustainability of economic growth, it is far from the stage of contraction.</p><p>There are no systemic risks this year, and the tightening of market concerns has instead given the global opportunity to lay out high-quality assets</p><p>To sum up, my view is that everyone should see clearly the trump cards of the American elite and Powell's trump cards. Powell will decide on his second term next year. In this case, his focus is more on the sustainability of economic growth and employment. Therefore, we say that it is called overwhelming water, and there is no systemic risk this year.</p><p>When the market is worried about the tightening of U.S. policies, which in turn causes global worries, the shock caused by this is a short-term disturbance, but it gives us the opportunity to lay out better assets with better cost performance on a global scale. This is my thinking.</p><p>If the Fed's monetary policy shifts to contraction, what will be the impact?</p><p>First, contraction will definitely bring about the adjustment of highly valued assets, even in a more drastic way.</p><p>Second, if it contracts, it will also bring differentiation, especially for emerging markets. At that time, we should pay attention to the rebound of the US dollar to form a trend of suppression on commodities, and then those emerging markets with middle and upstream raw materials and minerals as the main pillars will form a huge pressure, which will even lead to debt risks and debt crises in emerging markets.</p><p>As far as US stocks are concerned, the high valuation in it, especially some theme-based junk stocks, will also have an obvious adjustment, and history will repeat itself. What are we going to focus on now? When will it actually turn.</p><p>It's hard to see Fed policy tightening this year and even in the first quarter of next year</p><p>Before the policy shift, it is actually expected that the Fed will guide the market's expectations. And before the Fed's policy, there may be other policies, including taxes.</p><p>In the second half of today, there will also be tax increases that will be approved by the national tax, tax changes, bond issuance and fiscal stimulus packages. Generally speaking, we think that this year and even at the beginning of next year, we basically think that you can still see the Fed's trump card clearly.</p><p>Frankly speaking, the current global monetary system is still the international monetary system dominated by the US dollar, so the Fed's policy is equivalent to the main valve of global liquidity. At least this year and even the first quarter of next year, it is still difficult for us to see the tightening of this main valve.</p><p>It is not even excluded that, on the other hand, if the U.S. economy may be weaker than everyone thought in the second half of the year, it is also possible that the general valve of the Federal Reserve will be slightly enlarged, which will bring the opposite effect and bring better cost-effective assets all over the world, including individual high-quality companies in U.S. stocks, European stocks, Chinese A shares, Chinese Hong Kong stocks, including emerging markets.</p><p>It is OK to have a vague concept of the judgment of the Federal Reserve. It is difficult to make a judgment on the general trend, which is accurate to the month and week. We are also taking one step at a time. At least we can judge that the general trend is that we can't see the contraction of the Federal Reserve this year.</p><p><b>The slow bull and long bull of U.S. stocks are driven by the best group of companies</b></p><p>Q: Can U.S. stocks continue to improve? How long does it take to get better?</p><p>Zhang Yidong: Look at this matter in three aspects: First, look at this matter from a structural perspective. The structure of the US stock market itself has three indexes. We often talk about Dow Jones, Nasdaq and S&P. Among these three indexes, the best companies in the United States represented by Apple and Microsoft take the indexes. Similarly, we screen out the best companies in China to make an index. In fact, we are also super long bulls.</p><p>You don't have an idea that all of America is fine. A large number of companies in the U.S. market have launched, cleared, and delisted directly. There are quite a number of companies with no trading volume, like dead, and liquidity discounts. Therefore, the mature market is really a winner-take-all, and the best company has reliable performance. Everyone gives him a valuation that matches the profit growth, so we think its persistence is relatively long.</p><p>The US stock market itself is an index compilation, and its mechanism to effectively screen out the best companies is actually worth learning. Moreover, its trading mechanism, whether it is T +0 or securities lending mechanism, ensures its slow bull and long bull, so that the best companies will not rise several times in one year or a year and a half. After the rise, they will be Game over, and they will not be able to get up for several years.</p><p>From a structural point of view, U.S. stocks are driven by the best companies, and the best companies benefit from its good market mechanism, trading mechanism and a series of market-oriented mechanisms, which makes the best companies have a small bubble.</p><p><b>Backbone companies in U.S. stocks are not expensive</b></p><p>We often say that U.S. stock companies are expensive, and they are expensive from two angles:</p><p>First, these companies that take out the backbone of US stocks alone and can push the US stock index to rise are not expensive, not expensive in the world, and not expensive compared with A shares. On the contrary, the relatively weak ones, the more subject matter ones are more expensive.</p><p>Second, because its interest rate is low, it has risen for so long, and the ten-year Treasury Bond yield of U.S. stocks is only 1.6 and 1.7. This is the first point. From the perspective of the structure of the US stock market, before the United States substantially tightens the faucet (substantial contraction), the path taken by the best companies in the US stock market leading the index is still invisible.</p><p><b>U.S. stocks are not a bear market this year, and the emergence of a bear market is definitely a global systemic risk</b></p><p>Second, the differences between countries. We think that this year's US stock market is not a bear market. At the end of last year, many people said that they were not optimistic about US stocks this year. I said that US stocks are definitely not a bear market. At this time, a bear market in US stocks must be a global systemic risk. If there is a bear market in U.S. stocks this year, it must be that the general valve of the Federal Reserve has tightened. It is a global systemic risk, and neither A-shares, emerging markets nor European stock markets can withstand it.</p><p>Second, from a global perspective, if the United States leads the global monetary system, it is not a systematic tightening, and it is not necessarily the best US stock market. Since the beginning of the year, US stock market has underperformed European stock market, and even some of its indexes have performed weaker than the relatively excellent stock markets in emerging markets. As long as the US stock market is not a big bear, it is a bull or structural market, which brings opportunities to other markets around the world. This is a comparison between national markets and regional stock markets.</p><p>Third, style. Obviously, this year's style of U.S. stocks is that small and medium-sized stocks perform better than large stocks, and the cycle and value performance are better than the growth style, which has been from the beginning of the year until now. However, it is possible that there will be changes, and the style of growth will not be ruled out in the second half of the year.</p><p>From a long-term perspective, the United States is still an economy driven by technology and domestic demand. From a style perspective, its backbone is that these giants with scientific and technological innovation capabilities drag US stocks. This year's Dow Jones, Russell 3000 and Russell 2000 have performed much better than Nasdaq since the beginning of the year.</p><p>But it is precisely as we see that U.S. stocks are not rising and falling at the same time. It is a style rise, for example, the value rises and the growth is adjusting. Whether it is a Chinese stock or a local pure US stock, in fact, many of the partial growth since the beginning of this year have been adjusted by more than 30%-50%. Don't think that the US stock index is very cattle, ignoring the specialized and institutionalized characteristics of the US stock market. I have always said that I should try to buy funds and fix investment funds as much as possible, so that professional investors can participate in US stocks. Don't consider the US stock market with the idea of speculating in A shares and retail investors.</p><p><b>Pay attention to three points when investing in QDII: Know yourself, fight short with long, and fight fast with slow</b></p><p>Q: What should I pay attention to when investing in QDII?</p><p>Zhang Yidong: QDII itself is a tool, a product, a product that helps to enrich asset allocation. There are several concerns:</p><p>First, cognitive self. Before cognizing the product, take a look at what you look like. Because not all people can make money on certain products, for example, the products of some famous fund managers may have doubled dozens of times in more than a decade, but it is useless. The holders take them for a while and then sell them.</p><p>Some people say that buying QDII is the same as buying various products of A shares. When I make a band, it often falls in my hands. It is very important to know yourself. Your risk tolerance, whether you choose a time to make a band or just make a long-term allocation, is different.</p><p>Second, focus on playing short with long. After buying, try to know that the QDII you bought is in a relatively unfamiliar market outside your own circle of competence. You should have a relatively familiar process for fund managers, know horsepower from a distance, be really professional and have a real awareness of the market. It is recognized that making money in U.S. stocks does not depend on timing, but on good companies and high-quality companies. In fact, it is still a measure of value to make layout when its cost performance is right.</p><p>Third, play slow and fast. Because everyone is interested in overseas markets, it is often because they think that A shares have no chance and like to invest their money, which is a little better than the yield of A shares. But the style of A shares is very fast once it goes crazy. Many people cut their meat once A shares rise and directly toss their money out of QDII.</p><p>These three points, self-recognition, long against short, slow against fast is my advice to everyone. Even if the US stock market index is doing well, if we can't have a clear understanding of ourselves, I suggest that you would rather do what you are good at, rather than follow the crowd.</p><p>In 2007 and 2008, when QDII was very hot, taking advantage of the heat to subscribe for QDII, many people lost a lot of money and cut their meat out.</p><p>Therefore, to subscribe for QDII, you need to look at the concept of investors' asset allocation and the assessment period. After you know yourself well, it is always a good choice. Just like financial management, you take out money that you don't need urgently in the short term, and constantly make regular fixed investments. Your purpose is very clear, that is, to buy some assets that A shares don't have, or even through Hong Kong Stock Connect, the assets that even Hong Kong shares don't have, and buy the best global core assets, not only the core assets of A shares and Hong Kong shares in China. This is my share.</p><p><b>The era of global allocation has begun, and it is necessary to find the best companies in the world</b></p><p>Q: If you want to invest in QDII, is QDII the target that we must choose in this basket? Is it an important starting point for our basket to allocate assets?</p><p>Zhang Yidong: Definitely, because the world has entered an era of low growth and low interest rate, which is a new era of mediocrity. At this stage, we have to find the best companies in the world. I put forward the concept of China's core assets in 2016. In fact, this concept can be expanded to the whole world. Whether it is Europe, Japan or the United States, we should find the best companies all over the world and continue to provide assets with core competitiveness and good cost performance.</p><p>When the social wealth of Chinese people has accumulated to a certain stage, now our per capita GDP has reached 10,000 US dollars. According to the experience of Europe and the United States, it is just the beginning of the global allocation of wealth in the United States. According to such an experience, we should start to consider regular fixed investment in QDII, and gradually become familiar with this excellent manager. Don't put all your energy on it at once. If you put it all on it, it is likely that you will lose your heart and hurt your heart because of a fluctuation. It is best to take your time, fight short with long, and fight fast with slow, but the era of global allocation has begun.</p>","source":"lsy1597111094582","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>The United States buys time with money, and the whole world enters the \"new mediocre era\"</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nThe United States buys time with money, and the whole world enters the \"new mediocre era\"\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">投资作业本</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-05-27 19:44</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>This year, the U.S. stock market is not a bear market, and the appearance of a bear market is definitely a global systemic risk. \"The Fed's monetary policy framework has been very different from before since 2019, and it has completely changed. Now many investors, especially those in mainland China, always think that the U.S. stock market is going to collapse and the United States is going to end. The inflation of U.S. stocks is so high and the economy is so good. The United States is simply overheated. No matter how you think about it, you think that the Federal Reserve should speed up the pace of tightening. But in fact, this kind of thinking uses an\" old map \", and you think that the Federal Reserve used to focus on inflation and pay more attention to inflation than others.\"</p><p>\"In the second half of the year, the U.S. economy will have a resilience. It's not that it will jump down from 18 floors at once, but that it will maintain a range shock, and the kinetic energy of the whole marginal growth will weaken. There is no need to carry out stimulus policies at this time. This is the first point. The dimension of U.S. economic growth will slow down, and the kinetic energy of the ring-on-ring will weaken.\"</p><p>\"In the second half of the year, the unemployment rate (in the United States) will ease….. This round of unemployment rate in the United States will decline relatively smoothly, rather than rapidly and steeply….. (Federal Reserve) Their focus is also on employment. Before the United States achieves full employment and the pressure of social conflicts eases, it is difficult for the United States to put away the water at once.\"</p><p>\"The inflation in the second half of the year in the United States will not go down at once. The peak of inflation is in the second quarter, but the inflation may still hover at a high level in the second half of the year, and the Federal Reserve needs to control the real interest rate in the United States.\"</p><p>\"Under the background of the current game between great powers, we think that the United States buys time with money. This is a re-creation of the American dream, which means that both the US dollar, the US dollar exchange rate and the US long-term bond interest rate will eventually obey the so-called new American dream, and use money to buy time, the time for the US economic recovery and the time for the expansion of domestic demand in the United States. In the near future, whether with South Korea or some regions, the United States hopes that the advanced manufacturing industries in these regions can come to the United States, buy the time for manufacturing to return to the United States, and buy the time for American scientific and technological innovation and upgrading.\"</p><p>\"Before the policy shift, it can actually be expected that the Fed will guide the market's expectations. And before the Fed's policy, there may be other policies, including taxation.\"</p><p>\"The Fed's policy is equivalent to the main valve of global liquidity. At least this year and even the first quarter of next year, it is still difficult for us to see the tightening of this main valve.\"</p><p>\"These companies that can push the backbone of the US stock index to rise are not expensive, not expensive in the world, and not expensive compared with A shares. On the contrary, they are relatively weak, and the more thematic ones are more expensive.\"</p><p>\"U.S. stocks are definitely not a bear market. At this time, a bear market in U.S. stocks must be a global systemic risk... As long as U.S. stocks are not a big bear, it is a bull or structural market, which brings opportunities to other markets around the world.\"</p><p>\"Don't think that the US stock index is very cattle, ignoring the specialized and institutionalized characteristics of the US stock market. I have always said that we should try to buy funds and fix investment funds as much as possible, so that professional investors can participate in US stocks. Don't consider the US stock market with the idea of speculating in A shares and retail investors.\"</p><p>\"The world has entered an era of low growth and low interest rate, which is a new era of mediocrity. At this stage, we have to find the best companies in the world... The era of global allocation has begun.\"</p><p>On May 25th, Zhang Yidong, global chief strategist of Industrial Securities, shared the above views in the live broadcast of \"Cloud Conference-Global Capital Market Linkage, What is the Value of US Stock Allocation?\" held by China Business News.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f539f1c96458b7ed999579cf5647d0ff\" tg-width=\"677\" tg-height=\"457\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>The following is the essence of the investment workbook, which is shared with you:</p><p><b>The Fed's monetary policy framework is so different that we can't think old-fashioned</b></p><p>Q: For the first time since the outbreak, Fed officials discussed the possibility of tightening monetary policy. What does this mean for global markets?</p><p>Zhang Yidong: If you try to find the way to the future with the old map, you think that the Fed's contraction and bond purchase this time may be further tightened in the distant future. The method is wrong. On the other hand, if you have done more in-depth research on the US stock market, you will find that the Fed's monetary policy framework has been very different from before since 2019, and it has completely changed.</p><p>Nowadays, many investors, especially those in mainland China, always think that U.S. stocks are going to collapse and the United States is going to end. The inflation of U.S. stocks is so high and the economy is so good. The United States is simply overheated. No matter how you think about it, you think that the Federal Reserve should speed up the pace of tightening. However, in fact, this kind of thinking uses an \"old map\", and you think that the Federal Reserve used to focus on inflation and pay more attention to it than anything else.</p><p><b>The US economy remains resilient in the second half of the year, and no stimulus is needed at this time</b></p><p>In the second half of the year, the U.S. economy will have a resilience. It is not that it will jump down from 18 floors at once, but it will maintain a range shock, and the kinetic energy of the whole marginal growth will weaken. There is no need to carry out stimulus policies at this time. This is the first point. The dimension of U.S. economic growth will slow down, and the kinetic energy of the month-on-month will weaken.</p><p>Second, from the perspective of unemployment rate, the economic data in April is very good. The unemployment rate is 6.1%, a little higher than in March, which is from simple to luxurious easy, from luxurious to simple difficult. In the past year, the United States has experienced three rounds of water release and bail-out. The low-and middle-income people in the United States will take the bail-out money to be Happy first and spend it first. The savings rate in the United States is still as high as 13.6%, and the average in American history is 6-8%, which is its normal savings rate level, so it is not in a hurry to work and find a job. In this case, the unemployment rate is relatively high.</p><p><b>The Fed is still focused on jobs</b></p><p>In the second half of the year, the unemployment rate will ease because he is looking for a job and the savings rate will fall. However, the economy of the United States will not be so bad in the second half of the year. He may just work odd jobs, which will make the unemployment rate in the United States decline relatively smoothly, rather than rapidly and steeply.</p><p>The Federal Reserve pays more attention to the unemployment rate, so that when the inflation data appeared in April, on May 12th, US time, the inflation in the United States greatly exceeded expectations, and the market was in an uproar. At that time, many risky assets plummeted, triggering a small global turmoil that day.</p><p>However, immediately, several big figures with voting rights in the Fed, the vice chairman of the Fed, including another important official, suggested that they saw the data and suggested that the employment factor was more worrying than the inflation caused by the short-term transitional supply factor, so their focus was still on employment. Before the United States achieves full employment and the pressure of social conflicts eases, it is difficult to put away the water in the United States at once.</p><p>U.S. inflation peaked in the second quarter, and inflation high hovered in the second half of the year</p><p>Third, the inflation in the second half of the year in the United States will not go down at once. The peak of inflation is in the second quarter, but the inflation may still hover at a high level in the second half of the year, and the Federal Reserve needs to control the real interest rate in the United States.</p><p><b>The United States buys time with money</b></p><p>Real interest rates are very important to the recovery of the US economy, and in turn play a guiding role in nominal interest rates. As you can see, obviously, everyone was worried in mid-March, but in mid-March, we clearly stated that the yield of U.S. long-term bonds would not pose a systemic risk. Under the current background of the big-power game, we think that the United States is buying time with money, which is a re-creation of the American dream, which means that both the U.S. dollar, the exchange rate of the U.S. dollar and the interest rate of the U.S. long-term bonds will eventually obey the so-called new American dream, and use money to buy time, the recovery of the U.S. economy and the expansion of domestic demand in the United States. Recently, whether with South Korea or some regions, the United States hopes that the advanced manufacturing industries in these regions can come to the United States, buy time for manufacturing to return to the United States, and buy time for American scientific and technological innovation and upgrading.</p><p>Generally speaking, in the current state, whether it is employment, inflation or the United States to enhance its competitiveness and maintain the sustainability of economic growth, it is far from the stage of contraction.</p><p>There are no systemic risks this year, and the tightening of market concerns has instead given the global opportunity to lay out high-quality assets</p><p>To sum up, my view is that everyone should see clearly the trump cards of the American elite and Powell's trump cards. Powell will decide on his second term next year. In this case, his focus is more on the sustainability of economic growth and employment. Therefore, we say that it is called overwhelming water, and there is no systemic risk this year.</p><p>When the market is worried about the tightening of U.S. policies, which in turn causes global worries, the shock caused by this is a short-term disturbance, but it gives us the opportunity to lay out better assets with better cost performance on a global scale. This is my thinking.</p><p>If the Fed's monetary policy shifts to contraction, what will be the impact?</p><p>First, contraction will definitely bring about the adjustment of highly valued assets, even in a more drastic way.</p><p>Second, if it contracts, it will also bring differentiation, especially for emerging markets. At that time, we should pay attention to the rebound of the US dollar to form a trend of suppression on commodities, and then those emerging markets with middle and upstream raw materials and minerals as the main pillars will form a huge pressure, which will even lead to debt risks and debt crises in emerging markets.</p><p>As far as US stocks are concerned, the high valuation in it, especially some theme-based junk stocks, will also have an obvious adjustment, and history will repeat itself. What are we going to focus on now? When will it actually turn.</p><p>It's hard to see Fed policy tightening this year and even in the first quarter of next year</p><p>Before the policy shift, it is actually expected that the Fed will guide the market's expectations. And before the Fed's policy, there may be other policies, including taxes.</p><p>In the second half of today, there will also be tax increases that will be approved by the national tax, tax changes, bond issuance and fiscal stimulus packages. Generally speaking, we think that this year and even at the beginning of next year, we basically think that you can still see the Fed's trump card clearly.</p><p>Frankly speaking, the current global monetary system is still the international monetary system dominated by the US dollar, so the Fed's policy is equivalent to the main valve of global liquidity. At least this year and even the first quarter of next year, it is still difficult for us to see the tightening of this main valve.</p><p>It is not even excluded that, on the other hand, if the U.S. economy may be weaker than everyone thought in the second half of the year, it is also possible that the general valve of the Federal Reserve will be slightly enlarged, which will bring the opposite effect and bring better cost-effective assets all over the world, including individual high-quality companies in U.S. stocks, European stocks, Chinese A shares, Chinese Hong Kong stocks, including emerging markets.</p><p>It is OK to have a vague concept of the judgment of the Federal Reserve. It is difficult to make a judgment on the general trend, which is accurate to the month and week. We are also taking one step at a time. At least we can judge that the general trend is that we can't see the contraction of the Federal Reserve this year.</p><p><b>The slow bull and long bull of U.S. stocks are driven by the best group of companies</b></p><p>Q: Can U.S. stocks continue to improve? How long does it take to get better?</p><p>Zhang Yidong: Look at this matter in three aspects: First, look at this matter from a structural perspective. The structure of the US stock market itself has three indexes. We often talk about Dow Jones, Nasdaq and S&P. Among these three indexes, the best companies in the United States represented by Apple and Microsoft take the indexes. Similarly, we screen out the best companies in China to make an index. In fact, we are also super long bulls.</p><p>You don't have an idea that all of America is fine. A large number of companies in the U.S. market have launched, cleared, and delisted directly. There are quite a number of companies with no trading volume, like dead, and liquidity discounts. Therefore, the mature market is really a winner-take-all, and the best company has reliable performance. Everyone gives him a valuation that matches the profit growth, so we think its persistence is relatively long.</p><p>The US stock market itself is an index compilation, and its mechanism to effectively screen out the best companies is actually worth learning. Moreover, its trading mechanism, whether it is T +0 or securities lending mechanism, ensures its slow bull and long bull, so that the best companies will not rise several times in one year or a year and a half. After the rise, they will be Game over, and they will not be able to get up for several years.</p><p>From a structural point of view, U.S. stocks are driven by the best companies, and the best companies benefit from its good market mechanism, trading mechanism and a series of market-oriented mechanisms, which makes the best companies have a small bubble.</p><p><b>Backbone companies in U.S. stocks are not expensive</b></p><p>We often say that U.S. stock companies are expensive, and they are expensive from two angles:</p><p>First, these companies that take out the backbone of US stocks alone and can push the US stock index to rise are not expensive, not expensive in the world, and not expensive compared with A shares. On the contrary, the relatively weak ones, the more subject matter ones are more expensive.</p><p>Second, because its interest rate is low, it has risen for so long, and the ten-year Treasury Bond yield of U.S. stocks is only 1.6 and 1.7. This is the first point. From the perspective of the structure of the US stock market, before the United States substantially tightens the faucet (substantial contraction), the path taken by the best companies in the US stock market leading the index is still invisible.</p><p><b>U.S. stocks are not a bear market this year, and the emergence of a bear market is definitely a global systemic risk</b></p><p>Second, the differences between countries. We think that this year's US stock market is not a bear market. At the end of last year, many people said that they were not optimistic about US stocks this year. I said that US stocks are definitely not a bear market. At this time, a bear market in US stocks must be a global systemic risk. If there is a bear market in U.S. stocks this year, it must be that the general valve of the Federal Reserve has tightened. It is a global systemic risk, and neither A-shares, emerging markets nor European stock markets can withstand it.</p><p>Second, from a global perspective, if the United States leads the global monetary system, it is not a systematic tightening, and it is not necessarily the best US stock market. Since the beginning of the year, US stock market has underperformed European stock market, and even some of its indexes have performed weaker than the relatively excellent stock markets in emerging markets. As long as the US stock market is not a big bear, it is a bull or structural market, which brings opportunities to other markets around the world. This is a comparison between national markets and regional stock markets.</p><p>Third, style. Obviously, this year's style of U.S. stocks is that small and medium-sized stocks perform better than large stocks, and the cycle and value performance are better than the growth style, which has been from the beginning of the year until now. However, it is possible that there will be changes, and the style of growth will not be ruled out in the second half of the year.</p><p>From a long-term perspective, the United States is still an economy driven by technology and domestic demand. From a style perspective, its backbone is that these giants with scientific and technological innovation capabilities drag US stocks. This year's Dow Jones, Russell 3000 and Russell 2000 have performed much better than Nasdaq since the beginning of the year.</p><p>But it is precisely as we see that U.S. stocks are not rising and falling at the same time. It is a style rise, for example, the value rises and the growth is adjusting. Whether it is a Chinese stock or a local pure US stock, in fact, many of the partial growth since the beginning of this year have been adjusted by more than 30%-50%. Don't think that the US stock index is very cattle, ignoring the specialized and institutionalized characteristics of the US stock market. I have always said that I should try to buy funds and fix investment funds as much as possible, so that professional investors can participate in US stocks. Don't consider the US stock market with the idea of speculating in A shares and retail investors.</p><p><b>Pay attention to three points when investing in QDII: Know yourself, fight short with long, and fight fast with slow</b></p><p>Q: What should I pay attention to when investing in QDII?</p><p>Zhang Yidong: QDII itself is a tool, a product, a product that helps to enrich asset allocation. There are several concerns:</p><p>First, cognitive self. Before cognizing the product, take a look at what you look like. Because not all people can make money on certain products, for example, the products of some famous fund managers may have doubled dozens of times in more than a decade, but it is useless. The holders take them for a while and then sell them.</p><p>Some people say that buying QDII is the same as buying various products of A shares. When I make a band, it often falls in my hands. It is very important to know yourself. Your risk tolerance, whether you choose a time to make a band or just make a long-term allocation, is different.</p><p>Second, focus on playing short with long. After buying, try to know that the QDII you bought is in a relatively unfamiliar market outside your own circle of competence. You should have a relatively familiar process for fund managers, know horsepower from a distance, be really professional and have a real awareness of the market. It is recognized that making money in U.S. stocks does not depend on timing, but on good companies and high-quality companies. In fact, it is still a measure of value to make layout when its cost performance is right.</p><p>Third, play slow and fast. Because everyone is interested in overseas markets, it is often because they think that A shares have no chance and like to invest their money, which is a little better than the yield of A shares. But the style of A shares is very fast once it goes crazy. Many people cut their meat once A shares rise and directly toss their money out of QDII.</p><p>These three points, self-recognition, long against short, slow against fast is my advice to everyone. Even if the US stock market index is doing well, if we can't have a clear understanding of ourselves, I suggest that you would rather do what you are good at, rather than follow the crowd.</p><p>In 2007 and 2008, when QDII was very hot, taking advantage of the heat to subscribe for QDII, many people lost a lot of money and cut their meat out.</p><p>Therefore, to subscribe for QDII, you need to look at the concept of investors' asset allocation and the assessment period. After you know yourself well, it is always a good choice. Just like financial management, you take out money that you don't need urgently in the short term, and constantly make regular fixed investments. Your purpose is very clear, that is, to buy some assets that A shares don't have, or even through Hong Kong Stock Connect, the assets that even Hong Kong shares don't have, and buy the best global core assets, not only the core assets of A shares and Hong Kong shares in China. This is my share.</p><p><b>The era of global allocation has begun, and it is necessary to find the best companies in the world</b></p><p>Q: If you want to invest in QDII, is QDII the target that we must choose in this basket? Is it an important starting point for our basket to allocate assets?</p><p>Zhang Yidong: Definitely, because the world has entered an era of low growth and low interest rate, which is a new era of mediocrity. At this stage, we have to find the best companies in the world. I put forward the concept of China's core assets in 2016. In fact, this concept can be expanded to the whole world. Whether it is Europe, Japan or the United States, we should find the best companies all over the world and continue to provide assets with core competitiveness and good cost performance.</p><p>When the social wealth of Chinese people has accumulated to a certain stage, now our per capita GDP has reached 10,000 US dollars. According to the experience of Europe and the United States, it is just the beginning of the global allocation of wealth in the United States. According to such an experience, we should start to consider regular fixed investment in QDII, and gradually become familiar with this excellent manager. Don't put all your energy on it at once. If you put it all on it, it is likely that you will lose your heart and hurt your heart because of a fluctuation. It is best to take your time, fight short with long, and fight fast with slow, but the era of global allocation has begun.</p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> source：<a href=\"https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s?__biz=MzI0OTU4MTM3NQ==&mid=2247489839&idx=1&sn=bfa4c7de9db93cf496b1571b54d2223f&chksm=e98e037fdef98a691f1f72fec74fa81d0495e5508953175e31a96ce3ad949fe19ad0150a5e74&mpshare=1&scene=23&srcid=0527nkCwOi69oB7tUYWCJjNe&sharer_sharetime=1622111756938&sharer_shareid=ad9b2b8e01e45d9350b7cd98d4e88279#rd\">投资作业本</a></p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/15e20574f8fb568333181d61bb200086","relate_stocks":{".DJI":"道琼斯"},"source_url":"https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s?__biz=MzI0OTU4MTM3NQ==&mid=2247489839&idx=1&sn=bfa4c7de9db93cf496b1571b54d2223f&chksm=e98e037fdef98a691f1f72fec74fa81d0495e5508953175e31a96ce3ad949fe19ad0150a5e74&mpshare=1&scene=23&srcid=0527nkCwOi69oB7tUYWCJjNe&sharer_sharetime=1622111756938&sharer_shareid=ad9b2b8e01e45d9350b7cd98d4e88279#rd","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1171660212","content_text":"今年美股不是熊市，出现熊市肯定是全球性系统风险。“美联储的货币政策框架已经从2019年以后和以前大不一样，它已经完全的改变。现在很多投资者，特别是中国内地的投资者老是认为美股要崩了，美国要完蛋了，美股通胀这么高，经济又这么好，美国简直就是过热了，怎么想都觉得美联储要加快收紧的步伐，但事实上这种思考用的是一种“旧地图”，觉得美联储以前就盯住通胀，关注通胀胜于其他。”“下半年，美国经济会有一个韧性。不是说一下子从十八层楼向下跳，而是它会维持一个区间震荡，整个边际增长的动能会减弱，这个时候没有必要进行刺激政策，这是第一点，美国经济增长的维度会放缓，环比的动能会减弱。”“到了下半年，（美国）失业率的情况会缓解….. 美国这一轮失业率下行相对比较平滑，而不是快速的陡峭…..(美联储)他们的着重点还在于就业。美国实现充分就业之前，社会矛盾的压力缓解之前，美国覆水很难一下子收起来。”“美国下半年的通胀不会一下子下去，通胀的峰值在二季度，但是下半年通胀可能还在高位徘徊，需要美联储控制住美国的实际利率。”“在当前大国博弈的背景下，我们认为美国是用钱买时间，这是重新编了一个美国梦，意味着无论是美元、美元汇率还是美国长债利率最终都要服从于所谓新的美国梦，用钱来买时间，买美国经济复苏的时间，买美国内需扩张的时间，近期无论跟韩国还是一些区域，美国都希望这些区域的先进制造业能够到美国，买制造业回流美国的时间，买美国科技创新升级的时间。”“在政策转向之前，其实是可以预期的，美联储会引导市场的预期。而且在美联储的政策之前，可能还会有其他的政策，包括税收。”“美联储的政策相当于全球流动性的总阀门，这个总阀门至少今年乃至明年的一季度，我们还是很难看到收紧。”“能够推动美股指数向上涨的主心骨的这些公司并不贵，放在全球都不贵，跟A股相比也不算贵。反而相对弱的，比较偏题材性的比较贵。”“美股肯定不是熊市，这个时候美股出现熊市，一定是全球性的系统风险……只要美股不是一个大熊，它是一个偏牛或者偏结构型的市场，带来全球其他市场就有机会。”“不要以为美股指数很牛，忽略了美股市场的专业化、机构化的特征。我一直讲尽量用买基金、定投基金为主，让专业的投资者参与到美股，不要用炒A股的思路，散户化的思路考虑美股的市场。”“全球都进入到低增长、低利率的时代，是一个新平庸时代。这个阶段就要找全世界最优秀的公司……全球化配置的时代已经开始了。”5月25日，在第一财经举办的《云上会丨全球资本市场联动，美股配置价值几何？》的直播中，兴业证券全球首席策略分析师张忆东分享了上述观点。以下是投资作业本整理的精华内容，分享给大家：美联储货币政策框架已大大不同，不能用老式思维思考Q: 疫情爆发以来，美联储官员首次讨论收紧货币政策的可能性，这对全球市场意味着什么？张忆东：大家如果用老的地图试图找到未来的路，认为美联储这一次进行收缩、购债，遥远的未来有可能进一步收紧，方法是错的，反过来说，如果对于美股市场一直比较多的深入研究就会发现美联储的货币政策框架已经从2019年以后和以前大不一样，它已经完全的改变。现在很多投资者，特别是中国内地的投资者老是认为美股要崩了，美国要完蛋了，美股通胀这么高，经济又这么好，美国简直就是过热了，怎么想都觉得美联储要加快收紧的步伐，但事实上这种思考用的是一种“旧地图”，觉得美联储以前就盯住通胀，关注通胀胜于其他。下半年美国经济仍有韧性，此时无需进行刺激政策下半年，美国经济会有一个韧性。不是说一下子从十八层楼向下跳，而是它会维持一个区间震荡，整个边际增长的动能会减弱，这个时候没有必要进行刺激政策，这是第一点，美国经济增长的维度会放缓，环比的动能会减弱。第二，从失业率的维度来说，4月份经济数据非常好。失业率是6.1%，比3月份提高了一点，这就是由简入奢易，由奢入简难。过去一年的时间里，美国经历了3轮大放水，纾困，美国中低收入阶层会拿着纾困的钱先Happy，先花掉，美国的储蓄率依然高达13.6%，美国历史上的平均值是6—8%，这是它正常的储蓄率水平，所以不急于干活、找工作，这种情况下，失业率比较高。美联储重点还是关注就业到了下半年，失业率的情况会缓解，因为他要找工作，储蓄率下降。但是美国下半年的经济不会那么糟，他可能打打零工就OK了，从而使得美国这一轮失业率下行相对比较平滑，而不是快速的陡峭。美联储对于失业率的关注度更高，以至于当4月份的通胀数据出现之后，美国时间5月12号，美国通胀大超预期，市场一片哗然，当时很多风险资产暴跌，引发了那一天全球性的小小动荡。但是，立刻美联储有投票权的几个大人物，美联储的副主席包括另外一个重要的官员提出，他们看到数据，提出相比较短期过渡性的供给因素引发的通胀，就业的因素更令人担心，所以他们的着重点还在于就业。美国实现充分就业之前，社会矛盾的压力缓解之前，美国覆水很难一下子收起来。美国通胀峰值在二季度，下半年通胀高位徘徊第三，美国下半年的通胀不会一下子下去，通胀的峰值在二季度，但是下半年通胀可能还在高位徘徊，需要美联储控制住美国的实际利率。美国用钱买时间实际利率对美国经济的复苏非常重要，进而对于名义利率也有一个引导作用。你可以看到很明显，3月中旬的时候大家都很担心，但是3月中旬我们旗帜鲜明的提出美国长债收益率不会构成系统性风险，在当前大国博弈的背景下，我们认为美国是用钱买时间，这是重新编了一个美国梦，意味着无论是美元、美元汇率还是美国长债利率最终都要服从于所谓新的美国梦，用钱来买时间，买美国经济复苏的时间，买美国内需扩张的时间，近期无论跟韩国还是一些区域，美国都希望这些区域的先进制造业能够到美国，买制造业回流美国的时间，买美国科技创新升级的时间。总体来说，现在的状态下，无论是就业、通胀还是美国要增强它的竞争力，维持经济增长的持续性，都远不到收缩的阶段。今年没有系统性风险，市场担忧收紧反而给了全球布局优质资产的机会做一个总结，我的看法是大家要看清楚美国精英阶层的底牌，要看清楚鲍威尔的底牌，鲍威尔明年就要决定第二轮任期，在这种情况下，他的关注点更多在经济增长的持续性，就业的层面。所以我们说叫做覆水难收，今年没有系统性风险。当市场担心美国政策收紧，进而引发全球性担忧，这种导致的震荡是一个短期的扰动，反而给了我们在全球范围内布局更优质资产，性价比更好的资产的机会，这是我的思考。假如美联储货币政策转向收缩，会带来哪些影响？第一，收缩一定会带来高估值资产的调整，甚至是以一个比较激烈的方式调整。第二，如果收缩，也会带来分化，特别是对于新兴市场，那个时候要关注美元的反弹对于大宗商品形成一个趋势性的压制，进而那些以中上游原材料和矿产为主要支柱的新兴市场就形成了一个巨大的压力，甚至会导致新兴市场的债务风险、债务危机。对于美股而言，它里边的高估值，特别是有一些题材型的垃圾股也会有一个明显的调整，历史都会重演。我们现在要关注的是什么？它什么时候会真正的转。今年乃至明年一季度很难看到美联储政策收紧在政策转向之前，其实是可以预期的，美联储会引导市场的预期。而且在美联储的政策之前，可能还会有其他的政策，包括税收。今天下半年，也会有加税会不会被国税批准，税收的变化，以及发债，财政刺激方案。总体来说，我们认为今年乃至于明年的年初，我们基本上认为大家还可以看清楚美联储的底牌。坦率说，现在全球的货币体系依然是以美元为主导的国际货币体系，所以美联储的政策相当于全球流动性的总阀门，这个总阀门至少今年乃至明年的一季度，我们还是很难看到总阀门的收紧。甚至不排除反过来，如果下半年美国经济可能比大家想象中的弱，也有可能美联储的总阀门略微的放大一点，这会带来反过来的作用，带来全世界性价比更好的资产，包括美国股个别优质的公司，欧洲的，中国A股、中国港股，包括新兴市场的。对于美联储的判断有一个模糊的概念就OK，对大体趋势做一个判断，具体精确到月、周那很难，我们也是走一步看一步，至少我们能够判断大的趋势是今年看不到美联储收缩的动作。美股的慢牛、长牛是由最优秀的一批公司驱动的Q：美股还能继续向好吗？向好的时间有多长？张忆东：分三个方面来看这个事情：第一，从结构的角度来看这件事情。美股市场本身的结构，它有三大指数，我们动辄讲道琼斯、纳斯达克、标普，这三大指数里面主要就是苹果、微软为代表的美国最优秀的公司带着指数走。同样，我们把中国最优秀的公司筛出来做一个指数，其实我们也是超级长牛。你不要有一个想法，美国所有的都好。美国市场大量的公司推出了，清零了，直接退市了，有相当一批公司没有成交量，像死了一样，流动性折价。所以成熟市场真的是赢家通吃，最优秀的公司它的业绩靠谱，大家给他符合盈利增长相匹配的估值，所以我们认为它的持续性比较长。美股本身是指数编制，以及它能够有效的把最优秀的公司筛选出来的机制其实值得我们学习，而且它的交易机制，无论是T+0还是融券的机制，反而保证了它的慢牛，长牛，使得最优秀的公司不会是一年或者一年半涨了几倍，涨完了就Game over，好几年起不来了。从结构的角度来说，美股是最优秀的一批公司驱动的，而最优秀的公司又受益于它良好的市场机制、交易机制和市场一系列的市场化机制，使得最优秀的一批公司反而泡沫很小。美股主心骨公司并不贵我们动辄讲美股公司贵，贵从两个角度说：第一，单独拿出来美股的主心骨，能够推动美股指数向上涨的主心骨的这些公司并不贵，放在全球都不贵，跟A股相比也不算贵。反而相对弱的，比较偏题材性的比较贵。第二，因为它的利率低，涨了这么久，美股的十年期国债收益率只有1.6、1.7。这是第一点，从美股市场的结构来看在美国实质性地收紧水龙头（实质性收缩）之前，美股最牛的一批公司引领着指数走的路径还是看不到终止的。今年美股不是熊市，出现熊市肯定是全球性系统风险第二，国别之间的差异。我们认为今年美股不是熊市，去年年底，很多人说今年不看好美股，我说美股肯定不是熊市，这个时候美股出现熊市，一定是全球性的系统风险。如果今年美股出现熊市，肯定是美联储总阀门收紧了，那是全球性的系统性风险，无论是A股、新兴市场、欧洲的股市，都顶不住。第二个层面，从全球的角度来说，如果美国引领了全球货币体系不是一个系统性的收紧，不一定是美股最优秀，年初以来，美股跑输了欧洲股市，甚至它的有些指数比新兴市场相对优秀的股市表现得弱一点。只要美股不是一个大熊，它是一个偏牛或者偏结构型的市场，带来全球其他市场就有机会，这是国别市场和区域股市之间的比较。第三，风格。很明显，今年美股的风格是中小型的表现得比大型得好，周期和价值表现的比成长的风格好，这是从年初一直到现在。但是有可能会有所变化，下半年不排除成长的风格有所改善。从长期的角度来说，美国还是一个依靠科技驱动、内需驱动的经济体，从风格的角度来说，它的主心骨还是具有科技创新能力的这些巨头拖着美股走，今年的道琼斯，罗素3000、罗素2000，表现的比纳斯达克从年初到现在好很多。但是恰恰我们看到美股不是同涨同跌，它是一个风格涨，比如说价值涨，成长在调整。无论是中概股还是美股本地的纯美股，其实在今年从年初以来偏成长的很多都调了30%—50%以上，不要以为美股指数很牛，忽略了美股市场的专业化、机构化的特征。我一直讲尽量用买基金、定投基金为主，让专业的投资者参与到美股，不要用炒A股的思路，散户化的思路考虑美股的市场。投资QDII注意三点：认知自我、以长打短、以慢打快Q：投资QDII的时候需要注意什么？张忆东：QDII本身就是一种工具，是一种产品，有助于丰富资产配置的产品。有几个关注点：第一，认知自我。在认知产品之前，先看一看自己是什么样子的。因为并不是所有的人都能够在某些产品上赚钱，比如某些著名基金经理的产品可能十几年翻了几十倍，但没用，持有人拿了一会儿就卖掉了。有些人说买QDII就和买A股的各种产品一样，我做一个波段，往往就砸在手里面了。认知自我很重要，你的风险承受能力，究竟是择时做一个波段还是只是做一个长远的配置，这是不一样的。第二，关注以长打短。买了以后，尽量要知道你买的QDII是在自己能力圈以外，相对陌生的市场，对于基金管理人要有一个相对熟悉的过程，路遥知马力，真正要专业，真正对市场有认知。认知到在美股赚钱不是靠择时，而是靠好的公司，优质的公司，在它性价比合适的时候进行布局，其实还是对价值的衡量。第三，以慢打快。因为大家对海外市场感兴趣，往往是因为觉得A股没戏，喜欢把钱投出去，相比A股那边的收益率好一点。但是A股的风格一旦疯起来特别快。很多人在A股一旦起来的时候就割肉，直接把钱从QDII折腾出来。这三点，认知自我，以长打短，以慢打快是我对大家的建议。就算是美股市场指数走得很好，如果我们不能够对自我有清醒的认识，我建议大家宁可做自己擅长的事，不一定随大流。2007年、2008年，QDII非常火的时候，趁着热度认购QDII，很多人都亏了大钱，割肉出局。所以认购QDII，需要看投资者资产配置的理念和考核的期限，你要认知好自我之后，什么时候都是一个好的选择。就像理财一样，你拿出短期不需要急用的钱，不断的定期定投，你的目的很清晰，就是买一些A股没有的资产，甚至通过港股通，连港股都没有的资产，买最优秀的全球型的核心资产，不止是A股、港股中国的核心资产，这是我的分享。全球化配置时代已开启，要寻找全世界最优秀的公司Q：如果要投资QDII，QDII是不是我们这个篮子里面必须要选择的标的？是不是我们这个篮子配置资产很重要的一个抓手？张忆东：肯定是的，因为全球都进入到低增长、低利率的时代，是一个新平庸时代。这个阶段就要找全世界最优秀的公司，我在2016年提出中国核心资产这个理念，其实这个理念可以扩增到全世界，无论是欧洲、日本、美国，全球范围内寻找最优秀的公司，持续提供有核心竞争力，性价比不错的资产。当中国人的社会财富积累到了一定的阶段，现在我们的人均GDP到了1万美金，按照欧美的经验来看，恰恰是美国财富全球化配置的开端，按照这样一个经验来看，我们应该开始考虑定期定投QDII，慢慢熟悉这种优秀的管理人，不要一下子把全部的精力放上去，如果全部放上去，很可能因为一个波动灰了心，伤了心，最好慢慢来，以长打短，以慢打快，但是全球化配置的时代已经开始了。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{".DJI":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":5201,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":342948246,"gmtCreate":1618173901885,"gmtModify":1704707048918,"author":{"id":"3536928846214760","authorId":"3536928846214760","name":"東海吉龍","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0ef8466588cf515f97a20c636e2be8a0","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3536928846214760","authorIdStr":"3536928846214760"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"666","listText":"666","text":"666","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/342948246","repostId":"2126006034","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"2126006034","kind":"highlight","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"美股研究社，一个专注研究美股的平台，专业的美股投资人都在这。想了解美国股市行情、美股开户、美股资讯、美股公司；想获得一手美股重磅信息；想加入美股交流社群，敬请关注我们吧。","home_visible":0,"media_name":"美股研究社","id":"1074069735","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e09c69c7ea1d4781a9de127f9b375dd6"},"pubTimestamp":1618049504,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/2126006034?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2021-04-10 18:11","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"Among the three favorite stocks of \"Sister Wood\", who is most worthy of investors to \"Call\"?","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2126006034","media":"美股研究社","summary":"下面是三支遭受重创的Cathie Wood股票，它们是目前特别值得买入的股票。","content":"<p>Even the best investors go through tough times. That's the case with Cathie Wood, founder and CEO of Ark Investments. Shares in the five largest exchange-traded funds (ETFs) managed by Wood are well below their highs earlier this year.</p><p>However, the stock market pullback presents a huge opportunity for other investors to buy into shares of the best companies owned by the ARK ETF. Here are three hard-hit Cathie Wood stocks that are particularly buys right now.</p><p><b>Sea Limite (SE.US)</b></p><p>Sea Limited's<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/ARKF\">ARK Fintech Innovation ETF</a>Ranked fifth in. It is the 10th largest position in the ARK Next Generation Internet ETF. The company's shares have dropped more than 12% from a high reached in February.</p><p>Of course, the company announced a big fourth-quarter loss in early March. However, the stock's decline has more to do with investors pulling out of growth stocks than with Sea's underlying business. Actually, the company's business is booming.</p><p>Sea's digital entertainment division is making a fortune from the success of Free Fire, the highest-revenue mobile game in Latin America and Southeast Asia for six consecutive quarters. The business is essentially subsidizing the company's loss-making division, which is focused on digital finance and e-commerce.</p><p>However, I think the long-term outlook for Sea is very positive for all three businesses. Free Fire remains a global mobile gaming giant. Sea's Shopee e-commerce platform leads markets such as Southeast Asia, Indonesia, and continues to deliver strong revenue growth. The company's SeaMoney mobile wallet is also accelerating.</p><p>I expect Sea's bottom line to improve, and I expect its share price to bounce back well.</p><p><b>Square (SQ.US)</b></p><p>Wood's favorite stock is Square (NYSE:SQ). The stock is<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/ARKF\">ARK Fintech Innovation ETF</a>The largest holding and the second largest position in the ARK Innovation ETF and ARK Next Generation Internet ETF. But Square's stock is down 11% from its February high.</p><p>As in the case of Sea Limited, Square's pullback was primarily the result of a market rotation. Although the company's seller ecosystem was negatively impacted by the COVID-19 pandemic, there were signs of improvement in the fourth quarter. The increased supply of vaccines bodes well for stronger performance for the rest of 2021.</p><p>Square's cash app digital wallet, meanwhile, remains a huge growth story for the company. In the fourth quarter of this year, cash app gross profit soared 162% year over year. Square should be able to achieve even greater growth by driving the use of related products and services, such as cash and debit cards.</p><p>In March, the company achieved a major milestone as Square's financial services division began banking. Under the protection of a federally chartered bank, Square will be able to provide more financial services to its commercial customers. The fintech giant is likely to expand its banking services over time.</p><p>In many ways, Square's efforts to disrupt the financial services industry are just getting started. Its share price has plenty of upside.</p><p><b>Teladoc Health (TDOC.US)</b></p><p>In<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/ARKK\">ARK Innovation ETF</a>Among the most owned companies, Teladoc Health is second only to Square in terms of ownership. The virtual care industry leader is the fourth largest holding in the ARK Next Generation Internet ETF and ranks first in the ARK Genomic Revolution ETF. As much as Wood likes Teladoc's stock, its stock has fallen nearly 40% from its February high.</p><p>Institutional investors moving money away from growth stocks is one reason Teladoc's underperformance. However, the company also expects revenue growth to slow in the fourth quarter of 2021. In addition,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AMZN\">Amazon</a>Announced plans to enter the telemedicine market this summer.</p><p>To all of this, my answer is simply looking at the long-term prospects of Teladoc. Virtual healthcare is still in its early stages. McKinsey Consulting forecasts that the U.S. virtual health market will reach $250 billion a year after the pandemic ends. Teladoc opportunities aren't just limited to the United States, either.</p><p>I think, without a doubt, this is a large enough market to support multiple winners. Teladoc's leadership, market share (currently accounting for more than 40% of Fortune 500 customers), and range of products and services give the company a solid competitive edge.</p><p>In 2020, with an unprecedented surge in telemedicine demand due to the pandemic, it's entirely understandable that revenue growth will slow somewhat. While in the long run, Teladoc should be able to continue to grow strongly.</p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Among the three favorite stocks of \"Sister Wood\", who is most worthy of investors to \"Call\"?</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nAmong the three favorite stocks of \"Sister Wood\", who is most worthy of investors to \"Call\"?\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<div class=\"head\" \">\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/e09c69c7ea1d4781a9de127f9b375dd6);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">美股研究社 </p>\n<p class=\"h-time smaller\">2021-04-10 18:11</p>\n</div>\n</div>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>Even the best investors go through tough times. That's the case with Cathie Wood, founder and CEO of Ark Investments. Shares in the five largest exchange-traded funds (ETFs) managed by Wood are well below their highs earlier this year.</p><p>However, the stock market pullback presents a huge opportunity for other investors to buy into shares of the best companies owned by the ARK ETF. Here are three hard-hit Cathie Wood stocks that are particularly buys right now.</p><p><b>Sea Limite (SE.US)</b></p><p>Sea Limited's<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/ARKF\">ARK Fintech Innovation ETF</a>Ranked fifth in. It is the 10th largest position in the ARK Next Generation Internet ETF. The company's shares have dropped more than 12% from a high reached in February.</p><p>Of course, the company announced a big fourth-quarter loss in early March. However, the stock's decline has more to do with investors pulling out of growth stocks than with Sea's underlying business. Actually, the company's business is booming.</p><p>Sea's digital entertainment division is making a fortune from the success of Free Fire, the highest-revenue mobile game in Latin America and Southeast Asia for six consecutive quarters. The business is essentially subsidizing the company's loss-making division, which is focused on digital finance and e-commerce.</p><p>However, I think the long-term outlook for Sea is very positive for all three businesses. Free Fire remains a global mobile gaming giant. Sea's Shopee e-commerce platform leads markets such as Southeast Asia, Indonesia, and continues to deliver strong revenue growth. The company's SeaMoney mobile wallet is also accelerating.</p><p>I expect Sea's bottom line to improve, and I expect its share price to bounce back well.</p><p><b>Square (SQ.US)</b></p><p>Wood's favorite stock is Square (NYSE:SQ). The stock is<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/ARKF\">ARK Fintech Innovation ETF</a>The largest holding and the second largest position in the ARK Innovation ETF and ARK Next Generation Internet ETF. But Square's stock is down 11% from its February high.</p><p>As in the case of Sea Limited, Square's pullback was primarily the result of a market rotation. Although the company's seller ecosystem was negatively impacted by the COVID-19 pandemic, there were signs of improvement in the fourth quarter. The increased supply of vaccines bodes well for stronger performance for the rest of 2021.</p><p>Square's cash app digital wallet, meanwhile, remains a huge growth story for the company. In the fourth quarter of this year, cash app gross profit soared 162% year over year. Square should be able to achieve even greater growth by driving the use of related products and services, such as cash and debit cards.</p><p>In March, the company achieved a major milestone as Square's financial services division began banking. Under the protection of a federally chartered bank, Square will be able to provide more financial services to its commercial customers. The fintech giant is likely to expand its banking services over time.</p><p>In many ways, Square's efforts to disrupt the financial services industry are just getting started. Its share price has plenty of upside.</p><p><b>Teladoc Health (TDOC.US)</b></p><p>In<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/ARKK\">ARK Innovation ETF</a>Among the most owned companies, Teladoc Health is second only to Square in terms of ownership. The virtual care industry leader is the fourth largest holding in the ARK Next Generation Internet ETF and ranks first in the ARK Genomic Revolution ETF. As much as Wood likes Teladoc's stock, its stock has fallen nearly 40% from its February high.</p><p>Institutional investors moving money away from growth stocks is one reason Teladoc's underperformance. However, the company also expects revenue growth to slow in the fourth quarter of 2021. In addition,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AMZN\">Amazon</a>Announced plans to enter the telemedicine market this summer.</p><p>To all of this, my answer is simply looking at the long-term prospects of Teladoc. Virtual healthcare is still in its early stages. McKinsey Consulting forecasts that the U.S. virtual health market will reach $250 billion a year after the pandemic ends. Teladoc opportunities aren't just limited to the United States, either.</p><p>I think, without a doubt, this is a large enough market to support multiple winners. Teladoc's leadership, market share (currently accounting for more than 40% of Fortune 500 customers), and range of products and services give the company a solid competitive edge.</p><p>In 2020, with an unprecedented surge in telemedicine demand due to the pandemic, it's entirely understandable that revenue growth will slow somewhat. While in the long run, Teladoc should be able to continue to grow strongly.</p>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"http://gimg2.baidu.com/image_search/src=http%3A%2F%2Finews.gtimg.com%2Fnewsapp_bt%2F0%2F13178222039%2F641&refer=http%3A%2F%2Finews.gtimg.com&app=2002&size=f9999,10000&q=a80&n=0&g=0n&fmt=jpeg?sec=1619929481&t=d215d79061ca1426fcf3fc9ef6561e9f","relate_stocks":{"SE":"Sea Ltd","TDOC":"Teladoc Health Inc.","ARKK":"ARK Innovation ETF"},"is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2126006034","content_text":"即使是最好的投资者也会经历艰难时期。方舟投资公司创始人兼首席执行官Cathie  Wood就是这样。Wood管理的五大交易所交易基金(ETFs)的股价远低于今年早些时候的高点。然而，股市回调为其他投资者提供了巨大的机会，让他们可以买进方舟ETF所拥有的最好公司的股票。下面是三支遭受重创的Cathie  Wood股票，它们是目前特别值得买入的股票。Sea Limite（SE.US）Sea Limited 在Wood的ARK Fintech Innovation ETF中排名第五。它是ARK Next  Generation Internet ETF的第10大持仓。该公司股价已较2月份创下的高点下跌逾12%。当然，该公司在3月初宣布了第四季度的大幅亏损。然而，该股的下跌更多地与投资者从成长型股票中撤出有关，而不是与Sea的基础业务有关。实际上，公司的业务正在蓬勃发展。Sea的数字娱乐部门正从《Free Fire》的成功中赚得盆满钵满，《Free  Fire》是拉丁美洲和东南亚连续6个季度营收最高的手机游戏。这项业务实质上是在补贴该公司专注于数字金融和电子商务的亏损部门。然而，我认为Sea的长期前景对这三项企业都非常有利。Free  Fire仍然是全球手机游戏巨头。Sea的Shopee电子商务平台在东南亚、印度尼西亚等市场处于领先地位，并持续实现强劲的收入增长。该公司的SeaMoney移动钱包也在加速发展。我希望Sea的底线会有所改善，并且我希望它的股价能很好地反弹。Square（SQ.US）Wood最喜欢的股票莫过于Square(NYSE:SQ)。该股是ARK Fintech Innovation ETF持有的最大股票，也是ARK  Innovation ETF和ARK Next Generation Internet  ETF的第二大头寸。但Square的股价较2月份的高点下跌了11%。与Sea  Limited的情况一样，Square的回调主要是市场轮转的结果。尽管该公司的卖家生态系统受到了COVID-19大流行的负面影响，但第四季度出现了改善的迹象。疫苗供应的增加预示着2021年剩余时间的表现将更加强劲。与此同时，Square的现金应用数字钱包仍然是该公司的一个巨大增长故事。今年第四季度，现金应用毛利润同比飙升162%。通过推动相关产品和服务(如现金卡和借记卡)的使用，Square应该能够实现更大的增长。今年3月，随着Square金融服务部门开始银行业务，该公司实现了一个重要的里程碑。在联邦特许银行的保护下，Square将能够为其商业客户提供更多的金融服务。随着时间的推移，这家金融科技巨头可能会扩大其银行服务。从很多方面来看，Square在颠覆金融服务业方面的努力才刚刚起步。它的股价还有很大的上涨空间。Teladoc Health（TDOC.US）在ARK Innovation ETF持股最多的公司中，Teladoc  Health的持股量仅次于Square。这家虚拟护理行业的领军企业是ARK Next Generation Internet  ETF的第四大持仓，在ARK Genomic Revolution  ETF位列第一。尽管Wood很喜欢Teladoc的股票，但其股价已从2月份的高点下跌了近40%。机构投资者将资金从成长型股票上转移，是Teladoc表现不佳的一个原因。然而，该公司也预计2021年第四季度的收入增长将放缓。此外，亚马逊宣布计划于今年夏天进军远程医疗市场。对于这一切，我的回答只是着眼于Teladoc的长期前景。虚拟医疗仍处于早期阶段。McKinsey咨询公司预测，疫情结束后，美国虚拟医疗市场每年将达到2500亿美元。Teladoc的机会也不仅仅局限于美国。我认为，毫无疑问，这是一个足够大的市场，足以支持多个赢家。Teladoc的领先优势、市场占有率(目前其客户占《财富》500强企业的40%以上)，以及产品和服务的范围，使公司具有坚实的竞争优势。2020年，由于大流行，远程医疗需求前所未有地激增，收入增长将有所放缓，这是完全可以理解的。而从长远来看，Teladoc应该能够持续强劲增长。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"SE":0.9,"SQ":0.9,"ARKK":0.9,"TDOC":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":974,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0}],"lives":[]}