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2021-07-18

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2021-07-01

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Catching the top, plummeting, confused... Stock market inventory in the first half of 2021

2021-06-15

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@小虎活动:【老虎7週年】集卡瓜分百萬獎金

2021-06-14

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Preview: Angel of the Times goes public on Wednesday; Super Central Bank Week debuts

2021-06-04

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2021-02-26

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2021-01-12

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2020-12-31

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U.S. Macroeconomic Outlook 2021: Uncertain Outlook, Full of Crisis

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20:56","market":"hk","language":"zh","title":"Catching the top, plummeting, confused... Stock market inventory in the first half of 2021","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2147275816","media":"格隆汇","summary":"时间如梭，不知不觉，再过几个小时，今年上半年的时光就这么交待了。\n虽说金钱永不眠，资本多无情，但回顾上半年全球资本市场的疯狂与荒诞，还是不免让人心生感慨。\n辛辛苦苦大半年，你赚到了吗？\n本文和你一起总","content":"<p>Time flies, and unconsciously, in a few hours, the first half of this year will be confessed.</p><p>Although money never sleeps and capital is ruthless, looking back at the madness and absurdity of the global capital market in the first half of the year, it still makes people feel emotional.</p><p><b>After half a year's hard work, have you made any money?</b></p><p>This article will summarize it with you, take a look at the ups and downs of global assets in the first half of the year, look for the context of market capital development, and see if we can get a glimpse of the investment direction in the second half of the year.</p><p><h3><b>1</b></h3><h3><b>Review of the first half of the year: the feast and hidden worries of global assets</b></h3>Although there is still the final battle of the first half of the year in the United States tonight, the asset price fluctuation ranking battle has basically been settled.</p><p><b>In fact, in the first half of the year, commodities such as crude oil and non-ferrous metals were the strongest in the performance of major global assets, followed by stock markets of various countries, but this is also the second best record for the overall performance of global stock markets since 1998.</b></p><p>Crude oil can be regarded as enjoying the dividend of epidemic recovery and surging after life. If the current oil price is compared with previous years, the price has not actually risen, but the stock market has indeed hit record highs in many countries, especially Markets such as Vietnam, South Korea, and India, which have been deeply hit by the epidemic this year, even experienced the fiercest gains.</p><p><b>Behind this, the global crazy water release is indispensable.</b></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f7bd29c65f0d6ab28954e4a08d07bfb7\" tg-width=\"731\" tg-height=\"1898\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><b>In terms of US stocks,</b>The three major indexes rose by about 13%. There are several trends worth noting:</p><p><b>First, the U.S. economic revitalization plan has indeed achieved results under the influence of massive water releases.</b>The unilateral trend of the S&P 500 index and the Dow Jones index is obviously stable and stronger than that of the Nasdaq;</p><p><b>Second, under the asset bubble, in fact, many central market capitalization stocks in several major markets performed very strongly.</b>According to wind, the monthly turnover of the three major markets in the United States continued to soar from less than US $5 trillion in 2019 to over US $10 trillion at the beginning of this year, doubling. Although this doesn't mean there is a bubble, it can mean<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/QC7.SI\">the whole people</a>The phenomenon of stock trading is very hot, and investors are highly motivated to participate.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7e19bef62656c02b503a729b98984078\" tg-width=\"987\" tg-height=\"665\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><b>Third, the valuation of the leading technology leaders has been fired to a historically high position, and many of them have increased by more than 30% year-on-year, which means the taste of bubbles to a certain extent.</b></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/52876d447552d21c688014f3ba93405a\" tg-width=\"975\" tg-height=\"715\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><b>With<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AAPL\">Apple</a>For example,</b>In the past 10 years, Apple's valuation has fluctuated around about 20 times on average, but since last year, it has broken through its own ceiling and abruptly raised a whole level. If it is a new incremental business with higher growth from then on, it can enjoy a higher valuation treatment than before, it is not a bad idea. However, judging from its business performance in the past two years and the various anti-monopoly sanctions it has encountered one after another, this assumption is not true.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d0e6ec77088c81a003104228c03f3193\" tg-width=\"980\" tg-height=\"512\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>This can be seen from the financial report data in recent years, and Apple's performance growth even has a downward trend. The main reason for its soaring valuation in the past two years may rely more on the continuous massive release of water from the United States and its own maintenance of stock price through continuous large-scale repurchases.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/338e62968a9609dad3c2742847ee9007\" tg-width=\"984\" tg-height=\"559\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>In fact, other FAAMGs and other more large companies have continuously repurchased stocks in large amounts in the past two years, which has largely become an important force in maintaining stock prices.</p><p>However, in the first half of the year, Nasdaq and the New York Stock Exchange surpassed the Hong Kong Stock Exchange to become the two largest IPO financing exchanges in the world, with cumulative listing financing exceeding US $575.7 billion. U.S. stocks are still the hottest center of gravity in the world.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6110967c03aec012e0cf27f7c526d1d5\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"723\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><b>A-shares</b>If a few idioms are used to describe the overall performance of the first half of the year, it will be \"ups and downs, chicken feathers everywhere, and demons dancing wildly\". The super roller coaster market guidance in the first half of the year is still vivid in my mind. The final performance is: the Shanghai Composite Index and Shenzhen Component Index only rose by 3.45% and 4.8%, far less than the 14% and 17.3% of the Science and Technology Innovation Board and the Growth Enterprise Market.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a0104188115a595909e090ae9f6802ef\" tg-width=\"979\" tg-height=\"462\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><b>On the plate, the weight is low, the growth is a demon, and the style characteristics of the theme speculation are fully displayed</b>, driven by crude oil and non-ferrous commodities, the entire traditional construction cycle industry has the strongest growth, followed by the continued surge in the concept of green new energy, and the new three idiots of biomedicine, consumption, and technology. Others are short-term themes that are hot for only three days, and they often end up in chicken feathers.</p><p>But some people laughed, while others cried. Due to changes in macro policies and market preferences, non-bank finance and home appliances became the bleakest sectors in the first half of the year, among which the leaders in their respective industries collapsed.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/bc79e7ae4f9f5effaab99e0e7c985164\" tg-width=\"790\" tg-height=\"1772\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>Looking back at the A-share market in the first half of the year, there are actually several unshakable main lines that have reached a consensus in the chaotic speculation of funds taking turns to sing operas.<b>New energy (automobiles, photovoltaics), biomedicine (innovative drugs, medical beauty), new technology (Hongmeng,) high-end consumption (liquor, duty-free)</b>Etc., accumulated a huge amount of capital, and also put<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/300750\">Ningde era</a>Pushed to a trillion-dollar market value,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/002594\">BYD</a>Now it has exceeded a record high of 700 billion.</p><p>In the first half of the year, A-share listing financing was accelerating, with a total of 284 listings, doubling simultaneously, raising funds of 212.7 billion yuan, an increase of more than half.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/fdc22644e25b836c2c78844af7aad447\" tg-width=\"711\" tg-height=\"516\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>Overall, the performance of A-shares in the first half of the year is still acceptable. At least the GEM has formed a bull market situation, and market confidence has gradually turned from worry to positive.</p><p><b>In terms of Hong Kong stocks, although the Hong Kong stock market continued to have super giant companies listed in Hong Kong in the first half of the year, which attracted massive incremental funds, the overall performance was still worse than that of A shares.</b>The Hang Seng Index is only 6%, and the state-owned enterprise index where domestic stocks are located is even negative.</p><p>There are actually several main reasons behind the weak trend of Hong Kong stocks.<b>Including the repeated impact of the epidemic, which has led to the cooling of the financial real estate consumer industry, the state's anti-monopoly crackdown on Internet giants as a big weight, and the high valuation premium of listed stocks returning to Hong Kong.</b></p><p>This can be reflected in the trend of the Hang Seng New Economy Index, which has high hopes from the capital market. After a roller coaster market,<b>The index is still digesting new logical changes, and these giants appear to have seriously high valuations.</b></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/53938955fe681bc0076dc9d5d8e3d702\" tg-width=\"914\" tg-height=\"701\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>Hong Kong stocks as<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/00170\">China Capital</a>One of the important markets for overseas transit, the IPO market has been extremely hot. Although it was upstaged by US stocks this year, it actually performed very well. In the first half of the year, a total of 46 companies were newly listed, raising HK $213.2 billion, a year-on-year increase of 130%.<b>These include Kuaishou, JD.com,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BIDU\">Baidu</a>, Bilibili, Ctrip,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/ATHM\">Car Home</a>Wait for star companies</b>。</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ae59433c0ab8709950d884d18a0f906d\" tg-width=\"946\" tg-height=\"510\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>In terms of commodities, last year's epidemic had an impact on the upstream supply side, coupled with the strong recovery of the downstream demand side this year, and the agricultural output crisis, especially in the context of the global flood release, crude oil energy chemicals, copper, aluminum and iron,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/000061\">Agricultural products</a>Waiting for the joint resonance, global commodities are like wild horses, soaring.</p><p><b>Up to now, the major factors affecting commodities have not seen significant changes. Under the current serious imbalance between supply and demand, it is easy to rise but difficult to fall.</b></p><p>In addition, I have to talk about cryptocurrency. In this round of super roller coaster, before it fell, under the back and forth of Musk, the godfather of currency speculation, the Bitcoin once doubled, and the altcoin speculation was even more completely crazy, with increases of dozens or even hundreds of times. Dogecoin 400 times and shit coins 20,000 times, which continued to arouse the attention of the whole people and the anxiety of currency people, and finally ushered in strict bans from various countries. Overnight, the wealth of countless accounts with leveraged currency speculation was wiped out.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b1d822121fdb50a88085adeae51e7a15\" tg-width=\"898\" tg-height=\"568\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>Cryptocurrency can be said to be an abnormal market overflowed by the flood of global liquidity. In just a few months, it has been praised as the core asset of the future to the current speculation logic that has been smashed to pieces, which is embarrassing!</p><p>Summarizing the performance of global assets in the first half of the year, it can be seen that the continuous release of global water is a common factor. Even in the context of the epidemic impacting economic operations and most enterprises facing downward pressure on operating performance, the asset price side can still be boosted by strengthening future expectations by massive release of water.. This is also the reason why global assets have risen sharply from the economy since last year.</p><p><h3><b>2</b></h3><h3><b>Outlook for the second half of the year: Where are the investment opportunities?</b></h3>The underlying factors affecting asset price fluctuations are nothing more than<b>Liquidity, supply and demand, economy, policy</b>Aspects.</p><p>In the first half of the year, except for a few countries in the world, the overall economy took the repair route, which laid the foundation for the strengthening of the capital market.</p><p>But there are also many problems caused by water release, including<b>Persistently high inflation, structural overheating of the economy, increasing imbalance between supply and demand, and soaring asset price bubbles.</b></p><p>At present, the above problems facing the United States are particularly prominent. Regardless of the price increase of industrial supplies, real estate, consumer goods, etc., they are constantly creating new heights. The CPI in the United States soared to 5% in May, which was the level before the financial crisis broke out that year.</p><p>The U.S. government debt ratio has reached a 150-year high, and Biden is still increasing the volume by trillions, constantly testing the bottom line of the market.</p><p>Up to now, tightening liquidity to prevent overheating of the economic structure and stabilize inflation expectations has become a consideration that the United States has to face, and it has gradually become the consensus expectation of the global market.</p><p><b>But once it is really tightened, the logic of the global capital market will undergo a fundamental turn, especially at the moment when the asset bubble is obvious, the risk impact is no less than the \"king explosion\".</b></p><p>For China, there are still great economic and market worries in the second half of the year.</p><p>In the past year, China's economy has been able to perform well in the epidemic, mainly due to the growth of exports. When most countries in the world, especially Europe and the United States, the main consumer markets, were deeply plagued by the epidemic and their production and life stagnated, China strongly controlled the epidemic, resumed work and production as soon as possible, and coupled with its existing manufacturing capacity, exported products to the world, and reaped the dividends of this wave of global epidemic.</p><p><b>But now, the vaccination rate in Europe and the United States is getting higher and higher, many countries and regions have returned to normal production and life, and the demand for Chinese exports will gradually weaken. There is little chance that they want to continue to eat foreign trade dividends.</b></p><p>The other two growth drivers-investment and consumption, can't give much hope. The three major blocks of investment, the manufacturing industry, is difficult to expand, and the infrastructure has been done well. In recent months, the operating rates of some major industrial sectors have shown signs of falling back.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ee8a0552d2f6969db76cedffbe1e0fc3\" tg-width=\"905\" tg-height=\"632\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>The trend of China's PMI data and social financing data in recent months also clearly shows a downward trend.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/00d3462d319f9ea67b7652a6679c678d\" tg-width=\"915\" tg-height=\"632\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>Although real estate can be used as a short-term stimulus, it will go back to the old road of water stimulation. Moreover, there is actually not much room for operation in domestic housing prices. In addition, the central government has repeatedly reiterated that \"housing is for living, not for speculation\". The road is basically blocked.</p><p>Can you hope for consumption? That depends on<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/603883\">Common people</a>How much money is left in the pocket? Looking at the current residents' willingness to spend, it seems that it is not very optimistic. Even though the country has done a lot of things, such as controlling housing prices, killing off-campus education, and liberalizing the third child, from the perspective of consumption growth, it is showing a downward trend.</p><p><b>Therefore, the economic fundamentals in the second half of the year are still under pressure, and the stock market, as a barometer of the economy, will naturally be under pressure.</b>Although theoretically, if the state adjusts liquidity, the pressure on the stock market can be alleviated, the problem is that this is unknown, not to mention the possible water collection behavior of the Federal Reserve.</p><p><b>Therefore, don't expect too much from the market in the second half of the year, especially for U.S. stocks. No one can tell when rate hike, the gray rhinoceros, will come. The same goes for other commodity assets, not to mention cryptocurrencies.</b></p><p><b>But for A-shares, it is not without opportunities.</b></p><p>Funds always need to find a way out. When macro fundamentals are under pressure, they will tend to look for structural opportunities.</p><p>Although popular main lines such as photovoltaics, carbon neutrality, new energy vehicles (smart cars), semiconductors, biomedicine, big data, 5G communication applications, and new consumption have been generally hyped this year,<b>But in the long run, these are still sectors with certainty of growth, and they are also the favorite places for funds. Their future trend will still be a spiral upward trend. If they can survive, every callback may be an opportunity to get on the bus..</b></p><p>Another trend is that the current fund size has exceeded 22 trillion yuan, and it has increasingly become an important influencing force in A shares.<b>According to statistics, as of June, the scale of funds available to buy A shares is still about 832.1 billion yuan, which is enough to set off huge waves for A shares.</b></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8e50a0054df2fa81074420fc304a4a7a\" tg-width=\"950\" tg-height=\"581\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>In view of the fact that the past performance of funds in the past two years has generally been significantly stronger than the market, it is also a tricky way to make money by simply buying money to excellent fund managers and letting professionals do professional things. To a large extent, it can help us save the anxiety of not knowing what to invest in.</p><p><h3><b>3</b></h3><h3><b>epilogue</b></h3>Recently, many institutions have also released strategic reports for the second half of the year, which are generally similar to the ideas of this article, so the market consensus is still very strong.</p><p>Investment often tests people's vision and determination when the direction is unclear. There will still be big ups and downs in the market in the second half of the year. Many people may disappear after floating in this fluctuation, but there will also be people who seize the opportunity to get on the right car in every callback.</p><p>In the first half of the year, U.S. stocks continued to hit new highs, while A-shares and Hong Kong stocks were still stumbling, and even the direction was not completely out, which really made everyone feel uncomfortable.</p><p>I hope that what I didn't earn in the first half of the year can be earned back in the second half of the year.</p>","source":"stock_gelonghui","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Catching the top, plummeting, confused... Stock market inventory in the first half of 2021</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nCatching the top, plummeting, confused... Stock market inventory in the first half of 2021\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">格隆汇</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-06-30 20:56</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>Time flies, and unconsciously, in a few hours, the first half of this year will be confessed.</p><p>Although money never sleeps and capital is ruthless, looking back at the madness and absurdity of the global capital market in the first half of the year, it still makes people feel emotional.</p><p><b>After half a year's hard work, have you made any money?</b></p><p>This article will summarize it with you, take a look at the ups and downs of global assets in the first half of the year, look for the context of market capital development, and see if we can get a glimpse of the investment direction in the second half of the year.</p><p><h3><b>1</b></h3><h3><b>Review of the first half of the year: the feast and hidden worries of global assets</b></h3>Although there is still the final battle of the first half of the year in the United States tonight, the asset price fluctuation ranking battle has basically been settled.</p><p><b>In fact, in the first half of the year, commodities such as crude oil and non-ferrous metals were the strongest in the performance of major global assets, followed by stock markets of various countries, but this is also the second best record for the overall performance of global stock markets since 1998.</b></p><p>Crude oil can be regarded as enjoying the dividend of epidemic recovery and surging after life. If the current oil price is compared with previous years, the price has not actually risen, but the stock market has indeed hit record highs in many countries, especially Markets such as Vietnam, South Korea, and India, which have been deeply hit by the epidemic this year, even experienced the fiercest gains.</p><p><b>Behind this, the global crazy water release is indispensable.</b></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f7bd29c65f0d6ab28954e4a08d07bfb7\" tg-width=\"731\" tg-height=\"1898\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><b>In terms of US stocks,</b>The three major indexes rose by about 13%. There are several trends worth noting:</p><p><b>First, the U.S. economic revitalization plan has indeed achieved results under the influence of massive water releases.</b>The unilateral trend of the S&P 500 index and the Dow Jones index is obviously stable and stronger than that of the Nasdaq;</p><p><b>Second, under the asset bubble, in fact, many central market capitalization stocks in several major markets performed very strongly.</b>According to wind, the monthly turnover of the three major markets in the United States continued to soar from less than US $5 trillion in 2019 to over US $10 trillion at the beginning of this year, doubling. Although this doesn't mean there is a bubble, it can mean<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/QC7.SI\">the whole people</a>The phenomenon of stock trading is very hot, and investors are highly motivated to participate.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7e19bef62656c02b503a729b98984078\" tg-width=\"987\" tg-height=\"665\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><b>Third, the valuation of the leading technology leaders has been fired to a historically high position, and many of them have increased by more than 30% year-on-year, which means the taste of bubbles to a certain extent.</b></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/52876d447552d21c688014f3ba93405a\" tg-width=\"975\" tg-height=\"715\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><b>With<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AAPL\">Apple</a>For example,</b>In the past 10 years, Apple's valuation has fluctuated around about 20 times on average, but since last year, it has broken through its own ceiling and abruptly raised a whole level. If it is a new incremental business with higher growth from then on, it can enjoy a higher valuation treatment than before, it is not a bad idea. However, judging from its business performance in the past two years and the various anti-monopoly sanctions it has encountered one after another, this assumption is not true.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d0e6ec77088c81a003104228c03f3193\" tg-width=\"980\" tg-height=\"512\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>This can be seen from the financial report data in recent years, and Apple's performance growth even has a downward trend. The main reason for its soaring valuation in the past two years may rely more on the continuous massive release of water from the United States and its own maintenance of stock price through continuous large-scale repurchases.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/338e62968a9609dad3c2742847ee9007\" tg-width=\"984\" tg-height=\"559\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>In fact, other FAAMGs and other more large companies have continuously repurchased stocks in large amounts in the past two years, which has largely become an important force in maintaining stock prices.</p><p>However, in the first half of the year, Nasdaq and the New York Stock Exchange surpassed the Hong Kong Stock Exchange to become the two largest IPO financing exchanges in the world, with cumulative listing financing exceeding US $575.7 billion. U.S. stocks are still the hottest center of gravity in the world.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6110967c03aec012e0cf27f7c526d1d5\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"723\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><b>A-shares</b>If a few idioms are used to describe the overall performance of the first half of the year, it will be \"ups and downs, chicken feathers everywhere, and demons dancing wildly\". The super roller coaster market guidance in the first half of the year is still vivid in my mind. The final performance is: the Shanghai Composite Index and Shenzhen Component Index only rose by 3.45% and 4.8%, far less than the 14% and 17.3% of the Science and Technology Innovation Board and the Growth Enterprise Market.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a0104188115a595909e090ae9f6802ef\" tg-width=\"979\" tg-height=\"462\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><b>On the plate, the weight is low, the growth is a demon, and the style characteristics of the theme speculation are fully displayed</b>, driven by crude oil and non-ferrous commodities, the entire traditional construction cycle industry has the strongest growth, followed by the continued surge in the concept of green new energy, and the new three idiots of biomedicine, consumption, and technology. Others are short-term themes that are hot for only three days, and they often end up in chicken feathers.</p><p>But some people laughed, while others cried. Due to changes in macro policies and market preferences, non-bank finance and home appliances became the bleakest sectors in the first half of the year, among which the leaders in their respective industries collapsed.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/bc79e7ae4f9f5effaab99e0e7c985164\" tg-width=\"790\" tg-height=\"1772\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>Looking back at the A-share market in the first half of the year, there are actually several unshakable main lines that have reached a consensus in the chaotic speculation of funds taking turns to sing operas.<b>New energy (automobiles, photovoltaics), biomedicine (innovative drugs, medical beauty), new technology (Hongmeng,) high-end consumption (liquor, duty-free)</b>Etc., accumulated a huge amount of capital, and also put<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/300750\">Ningde era</a>Pushed to a trillion-dollar market value,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/002594\">BYD</a>Now it has exceeded a record high of 700 billion.</p><p>In the first half of the year, A-share listing financing was accelerating, with a total of 284 listings, doubling simultaneously, raising funds of 212.7 billion yuan, an increase of more than half.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/fdc22644e25b836c2c78844af7aad447\" tg-width=\"711\" tg-height=\"516\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>Overall, the performance of A-shares in the first half of the year is still acceptable. At least the GEM has formed a bull market situation, and market confidence has gradually turned from worry to positive.</p><p><b>In terms of Hong Kong stocks, although the Hong Kong stock market continued to have super giant companies listed in Hong Kong in the first half of the year, which attracted massive incremental funds, the overall performance was still worse than that of A shares.</b>The Hang Seng Index is only 6%, and the state-owned enterprise index where domestic stocks are located is even negative.</p><p>There are actually several main reasons behind the weak trend of Hong Kong stocks.<b>Including the repeated impact of the epidemic, which has led to the cooling of the financial real estate consumer industry, the state's anti-monopoly crackdown on Internet giants as a big weight, and the high valuation premium of listed stocks returning to Hong Kong.</b></p><p>This can be reflected in the trend of the Hang Seng New Economy Index, which has high hopes from the capital market. After a roller coaster market,<b>The index is still digesting new logical changes, and these giants appear to have seriously high valuations.</b></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/53938955fe681bc0076dc9d5d8e3d702\" tg-width=\"914\" tg-height=\"701\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>Hong Kong stocks as<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/00170\">China Capital</a>One of the important markets for overseas transit, the IPO market has been extremely hot. Although it was upstaged by US stocks this year, it actually performed very well. In the first half of the year, a total of 46 companies were newly listed, raising HK $213.2 billion, a year-on-year increase of 130%.<b>These include Kuaishou, JD.com,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BIDU\">Baidu</a>, Bilibili, Ctrip,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/ATHM\">Car Home</a>Wait for star companies</b>。</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ae59433c0ab8709950d884d18a0f906d\" tg-width=\"946\" tg-height=\"510\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>In terms of commodities, last year's epidemic had an impact on the upstream supply side, coupled with the strong recovery of the downstream demand side this year, and the agricultural output crisis, especially in the context of the global flood release, crude oil energy chemicals, copper, aluminum and iron,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/000061\">Agricultural products</a>Waiting for the joint resonance, global commodities are like wild horses, soaring.</p><p><b>Up to now, the major factors affecting commodities have not seen significant changes. Under the current serious imbalance between supply and demand, it is easy to rise but difficult to fall.</b></p><p>In addition, I have to talk about cryptocurrency. In this round of super roller coaster, before it fell, under the back and forth of Musk, the godfather of currency speculation, the Bitcoin once doubled, and the altcoin speculation was even more completely crazy, with increases of dozens or even hundreds of times. Dogecoin 400 times and shit coins 20,000 times, which continued to arouse the attention of the whole people and the anxiety of currency people, and finally ushered in strict bans from various countries. Overnight, the wealth of countless accounts with leveraged currency speculation was wiped out.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b1d822121fdb50a88085adeae51e7a15\" tg-width=\"898\" tg-height=\"568\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>Cryptocurrency can be said to be an abnormal market overflowed by the flood of global liquidity. In just a few months, it has been praised as the core asset of the future to the current speculation logic that has been smashed to pieces, which is embarrassing!</p><p>Summarizing the performance of global assets in the first half of the year, it can be seen that the continuous release of global water is a common factor. Even in the context of the epidemic impacting economic operations and most enterprises facing downward pressure on operating performance, the asset price side can still be boosted by strengthening future expectations by massive release of water.. This is also the reason why global assets have risen sharply from the economy since last year.</p><p><h3><b>2</b></h3><h3><b>Outlook for the second half of the year: Where are the investment opportunities?</b></h3>The underlying factors affecting asset price fluctuations are nothing more than<b>Liquidity, supply and demand, economy, policy</b>Aspects.</p><p>In the first half of the year, except for a few countries in the world, the overall economy took the repair route, which laid the foundation for the strengthening of the capital market.</p><p>But there are also many problems caused by water release, including<b>Persistently high inflation, structural overheating of the economy, increasing imbalance between supply and demand, and soaring asset price bubbles.</b></p><p>At present, the above problems facing the United States are particularly prominent. Regardless of the price increase of industrial supplies, real estate, consumer goods, etc., they are constantly creating new heights. The CPI in the United States soared to 5% in May, which was the level before the financial crisis broke out that year.</p><p>The U.S. government debt ratio has reached a 150-year high, and Biden is still increasing the volume by trillions, constantly testing the bottom line of the market.</p><p>Up to now, tightening liquidity to prevent overheating of the economic structure and stabilize inflation expectations has become a consideration that the United States has to face, and it has gradually become the consensus expectation of the global market.</p><p><b>But once it is really tightened, the logic of the global capital market will undergo a fundamental turn, especially at the moment when the asset bubble is obvious, the risk impact is no less than the \"king explosion\".</b></p><p>For China, there are still great economic and market worries in the second half of the year.</p><p>In the past year, China's economy has been able to perform well in the epidemic, mainly due to the growth of exports. When most countries in the world, especially Europe and the United States, the main consumer markets, were deeply plagued by the epidemic and their production and life stagnated, China strongly controlled the epidemic, resumed work and production as soon as possible, and coupled with its existing manufacturing capacity, exported products to the world, and reaped the dividends of this wave of global epidemic.</p><p><b>But now, the vaccination rate in Europe and the United States is getting higher and higher, many countries and regions have returned to normal production and life, and the demand for Chinese exports will gradually weaken. There is little chance that they want to continue to eat foreign trade dividends.</b></p><p>The other two growth drivers-investment and consumption, can't give much hope. The three major blocks of investment, the manufacturing industry, is difficult to expand, and the infrastructure has been done well. In recent months, the operating rates of some major industrial sectors have shown signs of falling back.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ee8a0552d2f6969db76cedffbe1e0fc3\" tg-width=\"905\" tg-height=\"632\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>The trend of China's PMI data and social financing data in recent months also clearly shows a downward trend.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/00d3462d319f9ea67b7652a6679c678d\" tg-width=\"915\" tg-height=\"632\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>Although real estate can be used as a short-term stimulus, it will go back to the old road of water stimulation. Moreover, there is actually not much room for operation in domestic housing prices. In addition, the central government has repeatedly reiterated that \"housing is for living, not for speculation\". The road is basically blocked.</p><p>Can you hope for consumption? That depends on<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/603883\">Common people</a>How much money is left in the pocket? Looking at the current residents' willingness to spend, it seems that it is not very optimistic. Even though the country has done a lot of things, such as controlling housing prices, killing off-campus education, and liberalizing the third child, from the perspective of consumption growth, it is showing a downward trend.</p><p><b>Therefore, the economic fundamentals in the second half of the year are still under pressure, and the stock market, as a barometer of the economy, will naturally be under pressure.</b>Although theoretically, if the state adjusts liquidity, the pressure on the stock market can be alleviated, the problem is that this is unknown, not to mention the possible water collection behavior of the Federal Reserve.</p><p><b>Therefore, don't expect too much from the market in the second half of the year, especially for U.S. stocks. No one can tell when rate hike, the gray rhinoceros, will come. The same goes for other commodity assets, not to mention cryptocurrencies.</b></p><p><b>But for A-shares, it is not without opportunities.</b></p><p>Funds always need to find a way out. When macro fundamentals are under pressure, they will tend to look for structural opportunities.</p><p>Although popular main lines such as photovoltaics, carbon neutrality, new energy vehicles (smart cars), semiconductors, biomedicine, big data, 5G communication applications, and new consumption have been generally hyped this year,<b>But in the long run, these are still sectors with certainty of growth, and they are also the favorite places for funds. Their future trend will still be a spiral upward trend. If they can survive, every callback may be an opportunity to get on the bus..</b></p><p>Another trend is that the current fund size has exceeded 22 trillion yuan, and it has increasingly become an important influencing force in A shares.<b>According to statistics, as of June, the scale of funds available to buy A shares is still about 832.1 billion yuan, which is enough to set off huge waves for A shares.</b></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8e50a0054df2fa81074420fc304a4a7a\" tg-width=\"950\" tg-height=\"581\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>In view of the fact that the past performance of funds in the past two years has generally been significantly stronger than the market, it is also a tricky way to make money by simply buying money to excellent fund managers and letting professionals do professional things. To a large extent, it can help us save the anxiety of not knowing what to invest in.</p><p><h3><b>3</b></h3><h3><b>epilogue</b></h3>Recently, many institutions have also released strategic reports for the second half of the year, which are generally similar to the ideas of this article, so the market consensus is still very strong.</p><p>Investment often tests people's vision and determination when the direction is unclear. There will still be big ups and downs in the market in the second half of the year. Many people may disappear after floating in this fluctuation, but there will also be people who seize the opportunity to get on the right car in every callback.</p><p>In the first half of the year, U.S. stocks continued to hit new highs, while A-shares and Hong Kong stocks were still stumbling, and even the direction was not completely out, which really made everyone feel uncomfortable.</p><p>I hope that what I didn't earn in the first half of the year can be earned back in the second half of the year.</p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> source：<a href=\"https://www.gelonghui.com/p/472711\">格隆汇</a></p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ad2dd670f9557c66480c84fc5e4bd415","relate_stocks":{"HSI":"恒生指数",".DJI":"道琼斯"},"source_url":"https://www.gelonghui.com/p/472711","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2147275816","content_text":"时间如梭，不知不觉，再过几个小时，今年上半年的时光就这么交待了。\n虽说金钱永不眠，资本多无情，但回顾上半年全球资本市场的疯狂与荒诞，还是不免让人心生感慨。\n辛辛苦苦大半年，你赚到了吗？\n本文和你一起总结一下，看看上半年全球的资产的兴兴落落，寻找市场资本发展的脉络，看能否窥探下半年的投资方向又在哪里。\n1\n上半年回顾：全球资产的盛宴与隐忧\n虽然今晚美国还有上半年的最后一战，但资产价格波动排位大战已基本尘埃落定。\n实际上，在上半年全球大类资产表现中，原油及有色等大宗商品是最强的，其次才是各国股市，但这也已是全球股市整体表现自从1998年以来第二好的记录了。\n原油算是享受疫情修复红利带来的死而后生式暴涨，如果拿当下的油价与前几年的相比，其实价格并没有涨上去，但股市确实是在很多国家都创出了历史新高，尤其今年还深受疫情冲击的越南、韩国、印度等市场甚至涨势最凶。\n这背后，全球性的疯狂放水功不可没。\n美股方面，三大指数涨幅约在13%附近。其中有几个趋势值得注意：\n一是美国的经济重振计划在海量放水影响下确实有所成效，标普500指数及道琼斯指数的单边趋势明显稳健强势于纳指；\n二是资产泡沫下，实际上几大市场很多中部市值股的表现都很强。据wind，美国三大市场的月成交从2019年的5万亿美元以下持续飙升至今年初破十万亿美元，翻了一番。虽然这并不能说明有泡沫，但能意味全民炒股现象很热，股民参与积极性很高。\n\n三是头部的科技龙头估值被炒到了历史偏高位置，很多同比上升有超30%，这一定程度上意味着泡沫的味道。\n\n以苹果为例，近10年以来苹果的估值平均在大概20倍附近波动，但去年开始就突破自身天花板，硬生生提升了一整个大level。如果它是从此有了更高成长性的新增量业务能让它享受比以往更高的估值待遇，未尝不可。但从近两年其业务表现，以及相继遇到的各种反垄断制裁看，这个假设并没有。\n\n这可以从近几年的财报数据看，苹果业绩增长甚至有下降趋势。而其近两年估值飙涨的主要原因，可能更多依赖于美国的持续海量放水以及自身通过不断大手笔回购，维护了股价。\n\n其实，其他FAAMG以及其他更多的大公司，都在这两年不断进行大额回购股票，很大程度上成为维护股价的重要力量。\n不过，上半年纳斯达克、纽交所超越港交所重新成为在全球IPO融资最大的两大交易所，累计上市融资超5757亿美元，美股依然是全球最热的重心。\n\nA股方面，如果是用几个成语来形容上半年的整体表现，那会是“大起大落、一地鸡毛、群魔乱舞”。上半年的超级过山车行情指导现在还历历在目，最终的表现是：沪指、深成指仅涨了3.45%、4.8%，远不及科创板和创业板的14%、17.3%。\n\n在板块上，权重低迷，成长作妖，题材乱炒的风格特征发挥的淋漓尽致，在原油、有色大宗商品带动下，整个传统建筑周期行业涨势最强，其次是绿色新能源概念的持续大涨，再次是生物医药、消费、科技这新三傻。其他的都是热不过三天的短线题材，往往结果一地鸡毛。\n但有人笑，也有人哭，由于宏观政策转变叠加市场偏好，导致非银金融及家电成为上半年最惨淡板块，其中又是各自行业龙头带崩。\n\n回顾上半年的A股，在题材搭台资金轮流唱戏的乱炒中，实际也有几个雷打不动的主线形成共识，新能源（汽车、光伏）、生物医药（创新药、医美）、新科技（鸿蒙、）高端消费（白酒，免税）等，沉淀了海量的资本，也把宁德时代推向了万亿市值，比亚迪现在也超过7千亿的历史新高。\n上半年的A股上市融资在加快，共有284家上市，同步翻倍，募集资金2127亿元，增长过半。\n\n整体看，上半年的A股还是表现算可以了，起码创业板形成了牛市的态势，市场信心也逐渐由担忧转向偏积极。\n港股方面，虽然上半年的港股市场不断有超级巨头公司赴港上市，为之引来了海量的增量资金，但整体表现依然更差于A股，恒指只有6%，内资股所在的国企指数甚至是负数。\n港股的弱势走势，背后其实有几个主要原因，包括疫情反复冲击，导致金融地产消费行业走冷、国家反垄断对作为大权重的互联网巨头打击、回港上市股开局估值溢价过高等。\n这可以从被资本市场给予厚望的恒生新经济指数走势中体现，走了一波过山车行情之后，指数仍在消化新逻辑变化之下，这些巨头们显得严重畸高的估值。\n\n港股作为中国资本出海中转的重要市场之一，IPO市场一直火热无比，今年虽然被美股抢了风头，其实也表现还很好。上半年累计新上市46家，募资2132亿港元，同比增了130%，其中包括快手，京东、百度、B站、携程、汽车之家等明星公司。\n\n大宗商品方面，去年的疫情对上游供应端冲击、叠加今年下游需求端的强势修复，农业产量危机、尤其在全球大放水背景下，原油能化、铜铝铁、农产品等联合共振，让全球大宗商品如同放缰野马，狂涨不止。\n截止目前，影响大宗商品的各大因素都还没看到明显转变，在当前供需严重失衡格局下，易涨难跌还在持续。\n此外还不得不说一下加密货币。在这一轮超级过山车中，在未跌之前，在炒币教父马斯克的来回翻腾下，比特币一度翻倍，山寨币炒作更是全面癫狂，不断出现数十倍，甚至上百倍涨幅，狗狗币400倍，屎币2万倍，不断引发全民关注与币民焦虑，也最终迎来各国的严令封杀，在一夜之间，无数上杠杆炒币的账户财富灰飞烟灭。\n\n加密货币可以说是全球流动性泛滥所溢出的畸形市场，短短数月就从被捧为未来核心资产到如今炒作逻辑都被打的稀巴烂，令人唏嘘！\n总结上半年全球资产表现，可以看出全球持续放水是共同因素，即使是在疫情冲击经济运行，企业层面多数面临经营业绩下滑压力的背景下，资产价格端依然可以通过海量放水强化未来预期来提振。这也是从去年到现在，全球资产一路脱离经济面大涨原因。\n2\n下半年展望：投资机遇在哪里？\n影响资产价格波动的底层因素不外乎流动性、供需、经济、政策方面。\n上半年，全球除了少部分国家，整体经济是走修复路线的，这是为资本市场走强打下了基础。\n但放水导致的问题也很多，包括持续高企的通胀、经济结构性过热、供需加剧失衡、资产价格泡沫飙升等。\n美国目前面临的上述问题尤其突出。无论工业用品、房地产、居民消费品等价格的涨幅，都不断在创造新高度。美国5月的CPI都飙到了5%，那是当年金融危机爆发前的水平。\n美国的政府债务率已经创150年新高，拜登还在万亿万亿地加量，不断试探市场的底线。\n到如今，通过收紧流动性来预防经济结构过热，稳定通胀预期，成为美国不得不面临的考虑，也逐渐成为全球市场的一致预期。\n但一旦真的收紧，全球资本市场的逻辑都会发生根本性转向，尤其在资产泡沫化明显的当下，风险影响不亚于“王炸”。\n对中国而言，下半年经济面及市场的隐忧都仍然很大。\n过去一年，中国经济能够在疫情中有不错的表现，主要原因是出口的增长，在全球大部分国家尤其是主要的消费市场--欧美，深受疫情困扰生产生活停滞之时，中国因为强力管控疫情，最快复工复产，加上本就拥有的制造业能力，为全球输出产品，吃到了这波全球疫情红利。\n但现在，欧美的疫苗接种率越来越高，不少国家和地区都已经恢复正常的生产生活，对中国出口产品的需求也会逐渐减弱，还想继续吃外贸红利，机会不大。\n而另外两个增长动力--投资和消费，也不可能给予太大希望，投资的三大块，制造业很难有扩张，基建也已经做得七七八八，近几个月已有一些主要工业部门开工率已经有回落迹象。\n\n近月的中国PMI数据和社融数据趋势，也明显看出了下行的趋势。\n\n而房地产虽然可以作为短期刺激手段，但又会走回放水刺激的老路，而且现在国内的房价，其实也没有太多可操作的空间，加上中央不断重申“房住不炒”，房地产这条路也基本堵死了。\n消费能寄望一下吗？那得看老百姓兜里还有多少钱，看看现在的居民消费意愿，貌似也没有很乐观。即使国家做了很多事，控房价、杀校外教育、放开三胎，但从消费增速上看，呈现的是下滑态势。\n所以下半年的经济基本面，还是承压的，股市作为经济的晴雨表，自然也会压力重重。虽然理论上，如果国家对流动性作出调节，那么股市的压力是可以缓解，问题就在于这个都是未知之数，何况还要面对美联储可能出现的收水行为。\n所以，下半年的行情不要寄望太多，尤其对于美股，谁也说不清楚加息这个灰犀牛什么时候会来。其他大宗商品资产也一样，加密货币就更加不用看了。\n但对A股来说，也不是没有机会。\n资金总是需要找寻出路的，在宏观基本面受压的情况下，它们会倾向于寻找结构性的机会。\n今年以来的光伏、碳中和、新能源车（智能汽车）、半导体、生物医药、大数据、5G通信应用、新消费等热门主线虽然已经普遍炒很高了，但从长远看，这些仍然是具备增长确定性板块，也是资金一直最爱去的地方，其未来的走势仍然会是螺旋上升态势，如果熬得住，每一次的回调，都可能是上车机会。\n另外一个趋势是，现在的基金规模已经超过22万亿，越来越成为了A股重要影响力量。据统计到6月为止可用于买A股的资金规模还有大约8321亿元，这个力量，足以对A股掀起滔天巨浪。\n\n鉴于近两年基金的往期表现普遍明显强于大市，所以直接干脆点，把钱买交给优秀基金经理打理，让专业人做专业事，也不失为一个躺赚的取巧方式，也很大程度上能帮我们省去不知道该投资什么的焦虑。\n3\n结语\n在近期，陆续有很多机构也发布下半年的策略报告，大体上跟本文的思路差不多，所以市场共识还是很强的。\n投资往往在方向不明朗的才能考验人的眼光和定力。下半年的市场大起大落依然还会出现，很多人可能这一次次波动中漂着漂着就不见踪影了，但也会有人在每一次回调中抓住机会上对了车。\n上半年美股继续创新高，A股港股还在跌跌撞撞，连方向都没完全走出来，确实让大家憋得难受。\n希望上半年没赚到的，下半年都能赚回来吧。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"HSI":0.9,".DJI":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2578,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":184608205,"gmtCreate":1623711519007,"gmtModify":1704209063950,"author":{"id":"3548268462187923","authorId":"3548268462187923","name":"适时做T","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/513358897b9c93a557b2aa918aa95006","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3548268462187923","idStr":"3548268462187923"},"themes":[],"ht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<a href=\"https://www.itiger.com/activity/market/2021/7th-anniversary?lang=zh_CN\" target=\"_blank\">戳我即可參與活動</a> &#x1;如何參與？ 用戶可通過完成活動頁面展示的當日任務列表來獲得字母卡，每完成一個任務即可隨機獲得一個字母，用戶集齊“TIGER”五個字母即可參與瓜分百萬股票代金券，每個用戶單日最多可獲得20張字母卡（不包括好友贈予和魔法卡）。 用戶在活動期間邀請累計7名好友完成註冊並開戶（註冊時間和開戶時間均在活動期間），即可獲得一張魔法卡（每人僅可獲得一張魔法卡）。魔法卡可用於兌換TIGER中的任意一個字母。&#x1;如果用戶的某一字母卡數量爲0，則字母卡爲灰色，用戶可通過點擊灰色的字母卡向好友索要卡片；如果用戶的字母卡數量大於0，則字母卡爲彩色，用戶可通過點擊彩色的字母卡向好友贈送卡片。當用戶集齊TIGER之後將無法再索要卡片或者贈送卡片。 &#x1; &#x1;如何獲得獎勵？ 用戶可在2021年7月1日至2021年7月2日期間進行開獎，所有集齊TIGER的客戶可點擊活動頁面的“開獎”按鈕，即可查看自己瓜分到的股票代金券獎勵。在開獎時間段內未點擊開獎的用戶將無法獲得獎勵。&#x1; 獎勵發放： 股票代金券將在開獎後的1個工作日內發放至用戶的獎勵中心，用戶需要在獎勵發放後的20天內前往【Tiger Trade APP &gt; 我的 &gt; 活動獎勵】領取，過期未領取的獎勵將自動失效。 重要提示： 本次7週年活動涉及不同國家和地區，由於各地區的監管要求不同，不同地區的活動獎勵會有所區別。欲知詳情，請點擊下方活動鏈接，登陸您的賬號，並點擊“活動規則“查看詳情。","listText":"老虎7週年給大家發福利了，集齊TIGER五個字母即有機會瓜分百萬獎金，你準備好了嗎？ <a href=\"https://www.itiger.com/activity/market/2021/7th-anniversary?lang=zh_CN\" target=\"_blank\">戳我即可參與活動</a> &#x1;如何參與？ 用戶可通過完成活動頁面展示的當日任務列表來獲得字母卡，每完成一個任務即可隨機獲得一個字母，用戶集齊“TIGER”五個字母即可參與瓜分百萬股票代金券，每個用戶單日最多可獲得20張字母卡（不包括好友贈予和魔法卡）。 用戶在活動期間邀請累計7名好友完成註冊並開戶（註冊時間和開戶時間均在活動期間），即可獲得一張魔法卡（每人僅可獲得一張魔法卡）。魔法卡可用於兌換TIGER中的任意一個字母。&#x1;如果用戶的某一字母卡數量爲0，則字母卡爲灰色，用戶可通過點擊灰色的字母卡向好友索要卡片；如果用戶的字母卡數量大於0，則字母卡爲彩色，用戶可通過點擊彩色的字母卡向好友贈送卡片。當用戶集齊TIGER之後將無法再索要卡片或者贈送卡片。 &#x1; &#x1;如何獲得獎勵？ 用戶可在2021年7月1日至2021年7月2日期間進行開獎，所有集齊TIGER的客戶可點擊活動頁面的“開獎”按鈕，即可查看自己瓜分到的股票代金券獎勵。在開獎時間段內未點擊開獎的用戶將無法獲得獎勵。&#x1; 獎勵發放： 股票代金券將在開獎後的1個工作日內發放至用戶的獎勵中心，用戶需要在獎勵發放後的20天內前往【Tiger Trade APP &gt; 我的 &gt; 活動獎勵】領取，過期未領取的獎勵將自動失效。 重要提示： 本次7週年活動涉及不同國家和地區，由於各地區的監管要求不同，不同地區的活動獎勵會有所區別。欲知詳情，請點擊下方活動鏈接，登陸您的賬號，並點擊“活動規則“查看詳情。","text":"老虎7週年給大家發福利了，集齊TIGER五個字母即有機會瓜分百萬獎金，你準備好了嗎？ 戳我即可參與活動 \u0001如何參與？ 用戶可通過完成活動頁面展示的當日任務列表來獲得字母卡，每完成一個任務即可隨機獲得一個字母，用戶集齊“TIGER”五個字母即可參與瓜分百萬股票代金券，每個用戶單日最多可獲得20張字母卡（不包括好友贈予和魔法卡）。 用戶在活動期間邀請累計7名好友完成註冊並開戶（註冊時間和開戶時間均在活動期間），即可獲得一張魔法卡（每人僅可獲得一張魔法卡）。魔法卡可用於兌換TIGER中的任意一個字母。\u0001如果用戶的某一字母卡數量爲0，則字母卡爲灰色，用戶可通過點擊灰色的字母卡向好友索要卡片；如果用戶的字母卡數量大於0，則字母卡爲彩色，用戶可通過點擊彩色的字母卡向好友贈送卡片。當用戶集齊TIGER之後將無法再索要卡片或者贈送卡片。 \u0001 \u0001如何獲得獎勵？ 用戶可在2021年7月1日至2021年7月2日期間進行開獎，所有集齊TIGER的客戶可點擊活動頁面的“開獎”按鈕，即可查看自己瓜分到的股票代金券獎勵。在開獎時間段內未點擊開獎的用戶將無法獲得獎勵。\u0001 獎勵發放： 股票代金券將在開獎後的1個工作日內發放至用戶的獎勵中心，用戶需要在獎勵發放後的20天內前往【Tiger Trade APP > 我的 > 活動獎勵】領取，過期未領取的獎勵將自動失效。 重要提示： 本次7週年活動涉及不同國家和地區，由於各地區的監管要求不同，不同地區的活動獎勵會有所區別。欲知詳情，請點擊下方活動鏈接，登陸您的賬號，並點擊“活動規則“查看詳情。","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/fd956a9c2fc9ee609753ae5f967072a7","width":"415","height":"616"},{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/92e88357b534f504b3088bc22f577a83","width":"415","height":"326"},{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/fe0400cc487fb56f85d401ab03df4d5e","width":"415","height":"356"}],"top":1,"highlighted":2,"essential":1,"paper":2,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/114899451","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":0,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":8,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2345,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":185073704,"gmtCreate":1623628822808,"gmtModify":1704207139702,"author":{"id":"3548268462187923","authorId":"3548268462187923","name":"适时做T","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/513358897b9c93a557b2aa918aa95006","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3548268462187923","idStr":"3548268462187923"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"…","listText":"…","text":"…","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/185073704","repostId":"1184301597","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1184301597","kind":"news","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"为用户提供金融资讯、行情、数据，旨在帮助投资者理解世界，做投资决策。","home_visible":1,"media_name":"老虎资讯综合","id":"102","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba"},"pubTimestamp":1623625736,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1184301597?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2021-06-14 07:08","market":"hk","language":"zh","title":"Preview: Angel of the Times goes public on Wednesday; Super Central Bank Week debuts","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1184301597","media":"老虎资讯综合","summary":"周一端午节，港股、A股休市一天，美股照常开市；","content":"<p>SUMMARY<b>：</b></p><p>During the Dragon Boat Festival on Monday, Hong Kong stocks and A-shares were closed for one day, while US stocks opened as usual; In terms of new stocks: Times Angel, the leader of invisible braces, went public on Wednesday, LYEL, a tumor immunotherapy company founded by the head of the National Cancer Institute of the United States, went public on Thursday, and Wanwu Xinsheng, backed by JD.com and Kuaishou, went public in the United States on Friday... Financial events: May Press conference on national economic performance, the Federal Reserve, the Bank of Japan, the Swiss National Bank, etc. will announce interest rate decisions, the adjustment of the FTSE China 50 Index will officially take effect, the second Four Witches Day of the year is approaching, and senior US officials will be dispatched: Biden will attend the NATO summit on Monday and meet with Russian President Putin on Wednesday; Powell held a press conference early Thursday morning; In terms of financial reports: Oracle Bone Inscriptions, Shuidi, Adobe, etc. have successively released financial reports.<b>Monday (June 14) Keywords: Hong Kong stocks A shares are closed for one day due to the Dragon Boat Festival; Biden Attends NATO Summit</b><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f3f22545aaa213bcb461898e38543683\" tg-width=\"620\" tg-height=\"344\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">June 14th (Monday) is the Dragon Boat Festival.<b>A-share Connect, Hong Kong stocks and Hong Kong futures will be closed for one day</b>。 U.S. stocks open as usual.</p><p>The North Atlantic Treaty Organization countries will<b>Summit held at NATO headquarters in Brussels</b>U.S. President Joe Biden will discuss with other NATO leaders on NATO's withdrawal from Afghanistan and the future of the 30 NATO countries. According to media reports, the EU hopes to end the tariff dispute between the two places on the occasion of US President Biden's visit to Europe.</p><p><b>Tuesday (June 15) Keywords: U.S. May retail sales month-on-month, Oracle financial report, AMTD Digital IPO</b></p><p><b>Monthly retail sales rate in May</b>The performance of the economy will reflect the performance of economic momentum. Due to the gradual release of the fiscal stimulus effect of the U.S. government, institutions expect retail sales to decline by 0.8% month-on-month last month after being flat month-on-month in April.</p><p>According to foreign media reports, Maxine Waters, Chairman of the U.S. House of Representatives Financial Services Committee, is scheduled to discuss on June 15<b>Central Bank Digital Currency Hold Hearing</b>And will hold a hearing on the impact of the cryptocurrency wave on June 30.</p><p>Before the U.S. stock market,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/QD\">Fun shop</a>Results will be released;<b>After U.S. stocks close,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/ORCL\">Oracle bone inscriptions</a>Results will be released.</b></p><p><b>New shares</b>，<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/HKD\">AMTD Digital</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/ACXP\">Acurx Pharmaceuticals, LLC *</a>Will be listed in the United States. AMTD Digital Parent Company<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/HKIB\">AMTD International</a>It is a subsidiary of AMTD Group, which was founded by Li Ka-shing's Cheung Kong Holdings and Hutchison Whampoa.</p><p><b>Wednesday (June 16) Keywords: Angel of the Times listed, press conference on national economic performance in May, Putin and Biden held a meeting</b><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/391716d32411330f06f6322858f4718c\" tg-width=\"620\" tg-height=\"534\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">In terms of new shares,<b>Invisible Braces Faucet<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/06699\">Angel of the Times</a></b>Black market trading started on Tuesday and officially landed on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange on Wednesday, June 16.</p><p>In addition, health plan management software providers<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/CNVY\">Convey Holding Parent, Inc.</a>, Israel Business Insights Platform<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/WKME\">WalkMe Ltd.</a>And Swiss biotech companies<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MOLN\">MOLECULAR PARTNERS AG</a>Will be available in the United States.</p><p>The National Bureau of Statistics stated that according to the unified arrangement of press release work,<b>Press conference on the performance of the national economy in May</b>It will be adjusted from 10: 00 am on Wednesday, June 16th to 15: 00 pm on June 16th. In May, the release times of five reports, including the monthly report on industrial production above designated size, the monthly report on fixed asset investment (excluding farmers), the monthly report on real estate development and sales, the monthly report on total retail sales of consumer goods and the monthly report on energy production, were adjusted accordingly to 15:00 pm on the 16th.</p><p><b>Russian President Vladimir Putin and US President Biden</b>The meeting will be held in Geneva, Switzerland. Putin has said that he does not expect any breakthrough in Russia-US relations from the meeting with Biden, but hopes that the meeting will be conducted in a positive manner.</p><p><b>Thursday (June 17) Keywords: Federal Reserve interest rate decision, Powell held a press conference, monthly residential sales price report in 70 large and medium-sized cities, Shuidi/Adobe financial report, LYEL listing</b><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f4d1dd7356eb9b114aa5ab27aa5708fe\" tg-width=\"620\" tg-height=\"249\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">In the early hours of Thursday,<b>Federal Reserve FOMC announces interest rate decision</b>, policy statements and economic expectations, the market does not expect the Fed to make major moves, but may adjust its inflation forecast. Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell will hold a press conference at 2:30 a.m. Beijing time on Thursday, and Powell is expected to continue to maintain a dovish stance.</p><p>Before the U.S. stock market,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/WDH\">Water droplets</a>Will announce earnings; After U.S. stocks close,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/ADBE\">Adobe</a>Will report earnings.</p><p>What is particularly noteworthy among the new shares is that,<b>Tumor Immunotherapy Companies<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/LYEL\">Lyell Immunopharma, Inc.</a></b>Will be listed in the United States. Dr. Richard Klausner, founder and chairman of Lyell, is the founder of Juno Therapeutics and GRAIL, one of the three giants of cellular immunotherapy, and the head of the National Cancer Institute. As early as August 10, 2020,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/02126\">WuXi Junuo-B</a>Announced the signing of a cooperation agreement with Lyell to develop and commercialize adoptive T cell therapy in China and Southeast Asian countries for the treatment of liver cancer.</p><p><b>Friday (June 18) Keywords: some FTSE Russell indexes are officially adjusted, Youran Animal Husbandry/Wanwu Xinsheng is listed, the second Four Witches Day of the year</b><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/41a6973365e4ff5f52e1f22b26260829\" tg-width=\"620\" tg-height=\"287\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><b>New shares</b>，<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/02171\">Keji Pharmaceutical-B</a>、<b>Leading upstream dairy industry in China<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/09858\">Youran Animal Husbandry</a></b>Listed in Hong Kong;<b><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/RERE\">Everything New</a></b>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/ATAI\">ATAI Life Sciences B.V. *</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/UNCY\">UNICYCIVE THERAPEUTICS, INC.</a>Waiting for listing in the United States. In May 2021, Kuaishou participated in the investment in Wanwu Xinsheng Group, forming a strategic combination with JD.com.</p><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/01810\">Xiaomi Group-W</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/01919\">COSCO SHIPPING Holding</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/00267\">Citic Limited</a>Will formally join<b>FTSE China 50 Index</b>； And<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/00175.HK\">Geely Automobile</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/03333\">China Evergrande</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/09901\">New Oriental-S</a>Eliminated index. The FTSE China A50 Index added Arowana and Zhifei Biotech, while the excluded stocks included Zhonggong Education and Hengli Petrochemical. The change will take effect after the market closes on June 18.</p><p>Friday is<b>On the second Four Witches Day this year,</b>Stock index futures, stock index options, stock options and single stock futures all expire for delivery at the same time today. Simultaneous delivery of these four asset classes may bring violent market volatility, with long and short positions playing against each other. The impact on the stock market is most pronounced during the opening and closing sessions of the day.</p><p>In addition, investors can also pay attention to this week<b>U.S. President Biden's infrastructure plan negotiations and progress in major U.S. antitrust reforms</b>。 After the U.S. stock market closed on Friday, that is, the morning of Saturday, June 19, Beijing time,<b>Russell 1000 and Russell 2000 Indexes to Announce Constituent Updates</b>。</p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Preview: Angel of the Times goes public on Wednesday; Super Central Bank Week debuts</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nPreview: Angel of the Times goes public on Wednesday; Super Central Bank Week debuts\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/102\">\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">老虎资讯综合 </p>\n<p class=\"h-time smaller\">2021-06-14 07:08</p>\n</div>\n</a>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>SUMMARY<b>：</b></p><p>During the Dragon Boat Festival on Monday, Hong Kong stocks and A-shares were closed for one day, while US stocks opened as usual; In terms of new stocks: Times Angel, the leader of invisible braces, went public on Wednesday, LYEL, a tumor immunotherapy company founded by the head of the National Cancer Institute of the United States, went public on Thursday, and Wanwu Xinsheng, backed by JD.com and Kuaishou, went public in the United States on Friday... Financial events: May Press conference on national economic performance, the Federal Reserve, the Bank of Japan, the Swiss National Bank, etc. will announce interest rate decisions, the adjustment of the FTSE China 50 Index will officially take effect, the second Four Witches Day of the year is approaching, and senior US officials will be dispatched: Biden will attend the NATO summit on Monday and meet with Russian President Putin on Wednesday; Powell held a press conference early Thursday morning; In terms of financial reports: Oracle Bone Inscriptions, Shuidi, Adobe, etc. have successively released financial reports.<b>Monday (June 14) Keywords: Hong Kong stocks A shares are closed for one day due to the Dragon Boat Festival; Biden Attends NATO Summit</b><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f3f22545aaa213bcb461898e38543683\" tg-width=\"620\" tg-height=\"344\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">June 14th (Monday) is the Dragon Boat Festival.<b>A-share Connect, Hong Kong stocks and Hong Kong futures will be closed for one day</b>。 U.S. stocks open as usual.</p><p>The North Atlantic Treaty Organization countries will<b>Summit held at NATO headquarters in Brussels</b>U.S. President Joe Biden will discuss with other NATO leaders on NATO's withdrawal from Afghanistan and the future of the 30 NATO countries. According to media reports, the EU hopes to end the tariff dispute between the two places on the occasion of US President Biden's visit to Europe.</p><p><b>Tuesday (June 15) Keywords: U.S. May retail sales month-on-month, Oracle financial report, AMTD Digital IPO</b></p><p><b>Monthly retail sales rate in May</b>The performance of the economy will reflect the performance of economic momentum. Due to the gradual release of the fiscal stimulus effect of the U.S. government, institutions expect retail sales to decline by 0.8% month-on-month last month after being flat month-on-month in April.</p><p>According to foreign media reports, Maxine Waters, Chairman of the U.S. House of Representatives Financial Services Committee, is scheduled to discuss on June 15<b>Central Bank Digital Currency Hold Hearing</b>And will hold a hearing on the impact of the cryptocurrency wave on June 30.</p><p>Before the U.S. stock market,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/QD\">Fun shop</a>Results will be released;<b>After U.S. stocks close,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/ORCL\">Oracle bone inscriptions</a>Results will be released.</b></p><p><b>New shares</b>，<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/HKD\">AMTD Digital</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/ACXP\">Acurx Pharmaceuticals, LLC *</a>Will be listed in the United States. AMTD Digital Parent Company<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/HKIB\">AMTD International</a>It is a subsidiary of AMTD Group, which was founded by Li Ka-shing's Cheung Kong Holdings and Hutchison Whampoa.</p><p><b>Wednesday (June 16) Keywords: Angel of the Times listed, press conference on national economic performance in May, Putin and Biden held a meeting</b><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/391716d32411330f06f6322858f4718c\" tg-width=\"620\" tg-height=\"534\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">In terms of new shares,<b>Invisible Braces Faucet<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/06699\">Angel of the Times</a></b>Black market trading started on Tuesday and officially landed on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange on Wednesday, June 16.</p><p>In addition, health plan management software providers<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/CNVY\">Convey Holding Parent, Inc.</a>, Israel Business Insights Platform<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/WKME\">WalkMe Ltd.</a>And Swiss biotech companies<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MOLN\">MOLECULAR PARTNERS AG</a>Will be available in the United States.</p><p>The National Bureau of Statistics stated that according to the unified arrangement of press release work,<b>Press conference on the performance of the national economy in May</b>It will be adjusted from 10: 00 am on Wednesday, June 16th to 15: 00 pm on June 16th. In May, the release times of five reports, including the monthly report on industrial production above designated size, the monthly report on fixed asset investment (excluding farmers), the monthly report on real estate development and sales, the monthly report on total retail sales of consumer goods and the monthly report on energy production, were adjusted accordingly to 15:00 pm on the 16th.</p><p><b>Russian President Vladimir Putin and US President Biden</b>The meeting will be held in Geneva, Switzerland. Putin has said that he does not expect any breakthrough in Russia-US relations from the meeting with Biden, but hopes that the meeting will be conducted in a positive manner.</p><p><b>Thursday (June 17) Keywords: Federal Reserve interest rate decision, Powell held a press conference, monthly residential sales price report in 70 large and medium-sized cities, Shuidi/Adobe financial report, LYEL listing</b><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f4d1dd7356eb9b114aa5ab27aa5708fe\" tg-width=\"620\" tg-height=\"249\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">In the early hours of Thursday,<b>Federal Reserve FOMC announces interest rate decision</b>, policy statements and economic expectations, the market does not expect the Fed to make major moves, but may adjust its inflation forecast. Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell will hold a press conference at 2:30 a.m. Beijing time on Thursday, and Powell is expected to continue to maintain a dovish stance.</p><p>Before the U.S. stock market,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/WDH\">Water droplets</a>Will announce earnings; After U.S. stocks close,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/ADBE\">Adobe</a>Will report earnings.</p><p>What is particularly noteworthy among the new shares is that,<b>Tumor Immunotherapy Companies<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/LYEL\">Lyell Immunopharma, Inc.</a></b>Will be listed in the United States. Dr. Richard Klausner, founder and chairman of Lyell, is the founder of Juno Therapeutics and GRAIL, one of the three giants of cellular immunotherapy, and the head of the National Cancer Institute. As early as August 10, 2020,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/02126\">WuXi Junuo-B</a>Announced the signing of a cooperation agreement with Lyell to develop and commercialize adoptive T cell therapy in China and Southeast Asian countries for the treatment of liver cancer.</p><p><b>Friday (June 18) Keywords: some FTSE Russell indexes are officially adjusted, Youran Animal Husbandry/Wanwu Xinsheng is listed, the second Four Witches Day of the year</b><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/41a6973365e4ff5f52e1f22b26260829\" tg-width=\"620\" tg-height=\"287\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><b>New shares</b>，<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/02171\">Keji Pharmaceutical-B</a>、<b>Leading upstream dairy industry in China<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/09858\">Youran Animal Husbandry</a></b>Listed in Hong Kong;<b><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/RERE\">Everything New</a></b>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/ATAI\">ATAI Life Sciences B.V. *</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/UNCY\">UNICYCIVE THERAPEUTICS, INC.</a>Waiting for listing in the United States. In May 2021, Kuaishou participated in the investment in Wanwu Xinsheng Group, forming a strategic combination with JD.com.</p><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/01810\">Xiaomi Group-W</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/01919\">COSCO SHIPPING Holding</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/00267\">Citic Limited</a>Will formally join<b>FTSE China 50 Index</b>； And<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/00175.HK\">Geely Automobile</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/03333\">China Evergrande</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/09901\">New Oriental-S</a>Eliminated index. The FTSE China A50 Index added Arowana and Zhifei Biotech, while the excluded stocks included Zhonggong Education and Hengli Petrochemical. The change will take effect after the market closes on June 18.</p><p>Friday is<b>On the second Four Witches Day this year,</b>Stock index futures, stock index options, stock options and single stock futures all expire for delivery at the same time today. Simultaneous delivery of these four asset classes may bring violent market volatility, with long and short positions playing against each other. The impact on the stock market is most pronounced during the opening and closing sessions of the day.</p><p>In addition, investors can also pay attention to this week<b>U.S. President Biden's infrastructure plan negotiations and progress in major U.S. antitrust reforms</b>。 After the U.S. stock market closed on Friday, that is, the morning of Saturday, June 19, Beijing time,<b>Russell 1000 and Russell 2000 Indexes to Announce Constituent Updates</b>。</p>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f85a7d6606dc76bae2a70c177e74aa88","relate_stocks":{},"is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1184301597","content_text":"摘要：\n\n 周一端午节，港股、A股休市一天，美股照常开市；\n\n\n 新股方面：隐形牙套龙头时代天使周三上市、美国国家癌症研究所负责人创办的肿瘤免疫治疗公司LYEL周四上市、背靠京东和快手的万物新生周五赴美上市……\n\n\n 财经事件方面：5月份国民经济运行情况新闻发布会，美联储、日本央行、瑞士央行等将公布利率决议，富时中国50指数调整将正式生效，年内第二个四巫日将至，美国高官出动：拜登周一参加北约峰会，周三与俄罗斯总统普京会晤；鲍威尔周四凌晨召开新闻发布会；\n\n\n 财报方面：甲骨文、水滴、Adobe等陆续发布财报。\n\n周一(6月14日)关键词：港股A股因端午节休市一天；拜登参加北约峰会6月14日（周一）为端午节，A股通、港股及港期休市一天。美股照常开市。\n北大西洋公约组织国家将在布鲁塞尔北约总部举行峰会，美国总统拜登将与北约其它国家领导人就北约从阿富汗撤军，以及北约30国的前途展开讨论。据媒体报道，欧盟希望借着美国总统拜登访欧之际结束两地关税之争。\n周二(6月15日)关键词：美国5月零售销售环比、甲骨文财报、尚乘数科IPO\n5月零售销售月率的表现将反映经济动能的表现情况，由于美国政府财政刺激效应逐步释放，在4月环比持平后，机构预计上月零售销售将出现环比0.8%的下降。\n据外媒报道，美国众议院金融服务委员会主席Maxine Waters定于6月15日就央行数字货币举行听证会，并将于6月30日就加密货币浪潮的影响举行听证会。\n美股盘前，趣店将发布业绩；美股盘后，甲骨文将发布业绩。\n新股方面，尚乘数科、Acurx Pharmaceuticals, LLC*将在美上市。尚乘数科母公司尚乘国际是尚乘集团旗下，尚乘集团是由李嘉诚的长江实业集团和和记黄埔创立。\n周三(6月16日)关键词：时代天使上市、5月份国民经济运行情况新闻发布会、普京拜登举行会晤新股方面，隐形牙套龙头时代天使于周二开启暗盘交易，在周三6月16日正式登陆港交所。\n此外，健康计划管理软件提供商Convey Holding Parent, Inc.、以色列商业洞察平台WalkMe Ltd.以及瑞士生物技术公司MOLECULAR PARTNERS AG将在美国上市。\n国家统计局表示，根据新闻发布工作统一安排，5月份国民经济运行情况新闻发布会由原计划的6月16日（周三）上午10时调整为6月16日下午15时举行。5月份规模以上工业生产月度报告、固定资产投资（不含农户）月度报告、房地产开发和销售情况月度报告、社会消费品零售总额月度报告以及能源生产情况月度报告等五个报告的发布时间相应调整为16日下午15时。\n俄罗斯总统普京与美国总统拜登将于瑞士日内瓦举行会晤。普京曾表示，不期待与拜登的会晤能对俄美关系有任何突破，但希望会晤以积极方式进行。\n周四(6月17日)关键词：美联储利率决议、鲍威尔召开新闻发布会、70个大中城市住宅销售价格月报、水滴/Adobe 财报、LYEL上市周四凌晨，美联储FOMC公布利率决议、政策声明及经济预期，市场预计美联储不会有大动作，但可能会调整对通胀的预估。美联储主席鲍威尔将在北京时间周四凌晨2点半召开新闻发布会，预计鲍威尔将继续维持鸽派立场。\n美股盘前，水滴将公布财报；美股盘后，Adobe将公布财报。\n新股中尤为值得注意的是，肿瘤免疫治疗公司Lyell Immunopharma, Inc.将在美上市。Lyell创始人、董事长Richard Klausner博士是细胞免疫治疗三巨头之一Juno Therapeutics和GRAIL公司的创始人，也是美国国家癌症研究所的负责人。早在2020年8月10日，药明巨诺-B宣布与Lyell签订合作协议，在中国及东南亚国家开发和商业化过继性T细胞疗法，用于肝癌治疗。\n周五(6月18日)关键词：富时罗素部分指数正式调整、优然牧业/万物新生上市、年内第二个四巫日新股方面，科济药业-B、中国乳业上游龙头优然牧业在港上市；万物新生、ATAI Life Sciences B.V.*、UNICYCIVE THERAPEUTICS, INC.等在美上市。在2021年5月，快手参投万物新生集团，与京东形成战略组合。\n小米集团-W、中远海控、中信股份将正式加入富时中国50指数；而吉利汽车、中国恒大、新东方-S被剔除指数。富时中国A50指数加入金龙鱼和智飞生物，被剔除的股票则有中公教育和恒力石化。该变更将于6月18日收盘后生效。\n周五是本年第二个四巫日，股指期货、股指期权、股票期权以及单一股票期货，都在今天同一时间到期交割。这四种资产类别同时交割有可能会带来剧烈的市场波动，多头空头相互博弈。对股市的影响在当天开盘和收盘的时段最为明显。\n此外，投资者本周内还可留意美国总统拜登的基建计划谈判和美国重大反垄断改革的进展。周五美股盘后即北京时间周六6月19日早上，罗素1000和罗素2000指数将宣布成份股更新。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2404,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":118733161,"gmtCreate":1622761412753,"gmtModify":1704190504069,"author":{"id":"3548268462187923","authorId":"3548268462187923","name":"适时做T","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/513358897b9c93a557b2aa918aa95006","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3548268462187923","idStr":"3548268462187923"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"ddffffftygh","listText":"ddffffftygh","text":"ddffffftygh","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/118733161","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2385,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":368104994,"gmtCreate":1614297892018,"gmtModify":1704770271295,"author":{"id":"3548268462187923","authorId":"3548268462187923","name":"适时做T","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/513358897b9c93a557b2aa918aa95006","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3548268462187923","idStr":"3548268462187923"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"tmdcnm","listText":"tmdcnm","text":"tmdcnm","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/368104994","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2085,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":388050245,"gmtCreate":1613004159387,"gmtModify":1704877250344,"author":{"id":"3548268462187923","authorId":"3548268462187923","name":"适时做T","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/513358897b9c93a557b2aa918aa95006","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3548268462187923","idStr":"3548268462187923"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"&nbsp;qq","listText":"&nbsp;qq","text":"qq","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/388050245","repostId":"1131026868","repostType":2,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1773,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":332266344,"gmtCreate":1610414341288,"gmtModify":1704983519892,"author":{"id":"3548268462187923","authorId":"3548268462187923","name":"适时做T","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/513358897b9c93a557b2aa918aa95006","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3548268462187923","idStr":"3548268462187923"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"00","listText":"00","text":"00","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/332266344","repostId":"1182427224","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2223,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":333766327,"gmtCreate":1609372052769,"gmtModify":1704978655398,"author":{"id":"3548268462187923","authorId":"3548268462187923","name":"适时做T","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/513358897b9c93a557b2aa918aa95006","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3548268462187923","idStr":"3548268462187923"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"：！！","listText":"：！！","text":"：！！","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/333766327","repostId":"1154691529","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1154691529","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1609327661,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1154691529?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2020-12-30 19:27","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"U.S. Macroeconomic Outlook 2021: Uncertain Outlook, Full of Crisis","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1154691529","media":"新浪财经","summary":"一、回顾2020，经济惨淡市场疯狂\n回顾2020，我们正确预测了美国经济颓废走势，然而市场的疯狂却出乎意料。\n（一）一方面，我们的分析正确预测了经济的颓废走势。\n我们分析的主要依据，首先是美国经济原本","content":"<p><b>1. Looking back on 2020, the economy is bleak and the market is crazy</b></p><p>Looking back on 2020, we correctly predicted the decadent trend of the US economy, but the madness of the market was unexpected.</p><p>(1) On the one hand, our analysis correctly predicted the decadent trend of economy.</p><p>The main basis for our analysis is that, firstly, the U.S. economy is already on the verge of a cyclical economic crisis. Secondly, the U.S. government's passive fight against the epidemic has caused the epidemic to get out of control, which has made the economy worse. Finally, although the scale of national rescue measures is unprecedented, their bias and limitations limit the effectiveness. This has seriously hindered the economic recovery of the United States. Specifically:</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6f651ec27751bf737490082d7ad19609\" tg-width=\"550\" tg-height=\"220\"></p><p>(Credit card delinquency rate of small and medium-sized banks in the United States. Gray is the economic crisis. Data source: Federal Reserve Economic Database)</p><p><b>First of all, the U.S. economy was already quite fragile at the end of last year and is gradually moving towards the next cyclical economic crisis.</b>Although economists of mainstream institutions in the United States were generally optimistic about the economic development of the United States at the beginning of the year, we didn't agree. The root cause of the outbreak of cyclical economic crisis lies in the restricted consumption of people. People's wage growth is sluggish, and they have to rely on borrowing to maintain consumption growth. However, borrowing money for consumption is unsustainable, resulting in people's limited purchasing power being insufficient to absorb the continuously expanding supply, resulting in a relative surplus of production. Product backlogs lead to a decline in corporate profit margins, and when profit margins drop to a certain point, companies will begin to reduce investment, cut working hours, and even start laying off employees. However, this will further reduce investment and consumer demand, and the oversupply will become more serious, leading to a further decline in corporate profits, thus falling into an a vicious circle and eventually triggering an economic crisis. As can be seen from the figure above, as of the fourth quarter of 2019, the credit card delinquency rate of small and medium-sized banks in the United States (which have more low-level customers and are more sensitive to the economy) has exceeded the pre-crisis levels in 2000 and 2008, indicating that consumption growth can no longer be supported by borrowing. The chart below shows that historically, the decline of corporate profit margins to a certain point often led to economic crisis, and last year it was close to this level.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1a0da671f84ef56a0ded9d477c0d76c6\" tg-width=\"550\" tg-height=\"261\"></p><p><b>Other valid leading indicators, including working hours and discretionary consumption growth, also point to the economic crisis.</b>When corporate profits decline, whether it is shortening workers' working hours or cutting staff, the total number of working hours will be reduced. When people's income falls due to unemployment and insufficient working hours, or their debt is unaffordable, they will reduce consumption expansion, especially for discretionary goods. As can be seen from the following two charts, the year-on-year growth rates of total working hours and non-essential goods will begin to decline continuously in the past quarters before the arrival of the economic crisis, warning of the arrival of the crisis. As of the fourth quarter of 2019, both indicators have shown a downward trend. These data and a range of other indicators we looked at show that the economic crisis was already approaching at the end of 2019.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2d1dae247273fd00fc067598efab7b4f\" tg-width=\"550\" tg-height=\"262\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/89a1d2d569ad36ff2653fd34bbbcb9ec\" tg-width=\"550\" tg-height=\"268\"></p><p><b>Second, profits take the lead in passively fighting the epidemic, which makes the epidemic out of control worse.</b>Out of our understanding of the nature of the U.S. government's service to capital, we predicted at the beginning of the outbreak that the U.S. government would put capital profits above people's health and lives, and might refuse to take necessary anti-epidemic measures that would harm profits. Passive fight against the epidemic has caused the epidemic to get out of control. As of December 19, the number of confirmed cases of COVID-19 in the United States exceeded 17.8 million, and the death toll exceeded 310,000. As the U.S. government's anti-epidemic measures continue to relax, the epidemic is getting more and more serious. At present, the daily number of confirmed cases has exceeded 250,000 (below), and the daily death toll has exceeded 3,000, which is even worse than the daily 9/11 terrorist attack (2,606 deaths). The out-of-control epidemic is not caused by the incompetence of the U.S. government as the global military hegemon, but more like a deliberate plan. After all, the vast majority of infections and deaths come from people at the bottom, especially people of color. The rich hide in luxury houses and even small islands, and have the best medical conditions in the world. If we only consider profits, even if 1 million people at the bottom (less than 0.3% of the total population) die, the loss will be smaller than shutting down the economy for two months. However, this greedy, short-sighted and cruel policy of the American ruling class has caused repeated outbreaks and intensification of the epidemic, making the economic recovery of the United States lag behind that of countries accused of the epidemic.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/47ba07e5188dd7a48630121bb33ceda1\" tg-width=\"550\" tg-height=\"222\"></p><p>(The daily number of new confirmed cases of COVID-19 patients in the United States and its 7-day average, data source: The New York Times)</p><p><b>Third, government rescue measures are heavily biased towards capital. Although the scale is unprecedented, the effect is limited.</b>Also out of our understanding of the nature of the U.S. government's service capital, we predict that the U.S. government's rescue measures will be greatly biased towards big capital rather than ordinary people. This means that the monetary policy of printing money out of thin air to save capital will be extremely loose, while the fiscal policy that requires capital to pay the bill may be sloppy and biased. Sure enough, the Federal Reserve first quickly lowered interest rates to zero in early March when the epidemic began to appear, launched an unprecedented \"unlimited quantitative easing\" monetary policy, and expanded its balance sheet by US $3 trillion within three months to save the market (picture below). At the end of March, the U.S. government launched the first round of fiscal stimulus plan of 2 trillion yuan, the largest part of which was used to rescue American enterprises (44%), only 15% subsidized American families, and 15% increased unemployment benefits. Even the relief to the American people is to ensure that the people can pay their mortgages and rents, so as not to harm the interests of American banks and homeowners. However, the relief for the American people expired at the end of July, and the U.S. Congress has been wrangling for several months to obstruct the introduction of a new round of relief plans. Loose monetary policy can boost asset markets, but history has proved to have limited effect on the real economy. However, the financial stimulus that plays a greater role in the real economy and people's livelihood, especially the effective public investment in infrastructure, science, education and welfare, is missing. The U.S. government's policies will not only create debt and asset bubbles, but also aggravate people's suffering and hinder the real recovery of the U.S. economy.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/632d4b87e4d45512790a4f708967523d\" tg-width=\"550\" tg-height=\"239\"></p><p>(Net total assets of the Federal Reserve. Gray is the economic crisis. Data source: Federal Reserve Economic Database FRED)</p><p><b>The actual data verifies our forecast that the U.S. economy is in severe decline and the recovery tends to stagnate.</b></p><p><b>First, GDP has shrunk significantly.</b>As can be seen from the figure below, U.S. GDP plummeted by 9% year-on-year under the impact of the epidemic. Despite the resumption of work at the end of April, GDP still shrank by 2.9% year-on-year in the third quarter, and forward-looking private investment shrank by 3.8% year-on-year. Subsequent data showed that the improvement tended to stagnate.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/bd4cc475fe14a0160091059bdf898b2d\" tg-width=\"550\" tg-height=\"222\"></p><p>(U.S. GDP year-on-year growth rate, data source: Federal Reserve Economic Database FRED)</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/be5b3bd52de2660ae58c5556db18cfc8\" tg-width=\"550\" tg-height=\"217\"></p><p>(Monthly year-on-year growth rate: blue is industrial production, red is actual private consumption. Data source: FRED)</p><p><b>To make matters worse, the recent recovery in production and consumption has stalled.</b>According to the latest monthly data (above), the gross industrial output shrank by 5.5% year-on-year in November, worse than in October; Real private consumption, which accounts for 70% of U.S. GDP, grew at a year-on-year rate of-1.8% in October (nearly 5 percentage points lower than the pre-epidemic growth rate). High-frequency data through December 14 shows (below) that credit card spending contracted by 4.7% compared with the same period last year, and the recovery has stalled since October.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/093623e7822b7c5a3ff823d9f402fdfe\" tg-width=\"405\" tg-height=\"264\"></p><p>(YoY 7-day average of Chase Bank credit card spending, as of December 14. Data source: JPMorgan Chase Bank)</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c775b545636006c32be575d3ed551881\" tg-width=\"550\" tg-height=\"239\"></p><p>(U.S. non-farm payrolls increased month-on-month, data source: Federal Reserve Economic Database FRED)</p><p><b>Most seriously, the improvement in employment has reversed.</b>Employment is the pillar of consumption and the most important internal driving force of economic recovery, so it is the core indicator to measure economic recovery. As can be seen from the above chart, as of early November, the month-on-month growth of non-farm payrolls in the United States has continued to slow down since May. The high-frequency data as of December 14th (below) shows that the improvement in employment has begun to reverse in the last month, and the total number of employed people has begun to decline, more than 10 million lower than that in February. This does not include the semi-unemployed population caused by the economic downturn.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/227c3e19fd3b768a13b57d197f62dcd4\" tg-width=\"433\" tg-height=\"262\"></p><p>(Total non-farm payrolls: official data (blue) vs. other data (yellow). Data source: JPMorgan Chase Bank)</p><p><b>In addition, due to the bleak economic outlook, banks continue to tighten their monetary policy despite abundant liquidity.</b>According to the bank survey data released by the Federal Reserve in November (below), in the second quarter, banks generally raised their commercial loan standards for large and medium-sized enterprises (the number of banks that raised their standards was 70 percentage points more than that that did not), and in the third quarter, most banks continued to raise their loan standards (38 percentage points more than those that did not). Similarly, after banks generally raised their personal consumption credit standards in the second quarter, most banks continued to raise their standards in the third quarter. The continuous improvement of credit standards by banks reflects that banks are increasingly pessimistic about the economic outlook, which will also lead to credit tension and affect corporate operations and consumption recovery.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e0e2a88c1f32b115bd13657865b2ee15\" tg-width=\"550\" tg-height=\"234\"></p><p>(Net proportion of banks that have raised their credit standards: commercial loans in blue and personal consumption credit in red. Data source: FRED)</p><p><b>At the same time, the life of the people at the bottom of the United States is becoming increasingly difficult, hindering economic recovery.</b>Severe unemployment, insufficient government assistance, and lack of access to borrowing make it difficult for many families in the United States to afford the most basic living needs. According to U.S. government data (below), 12.7% of American families are currently facing food shortages, and 9.1% of families lack housing security. For the most powerful country in the world, this not only reflects the extreme social injustice (it is reported that the richest class in the United States greatly increased their wealth due to government bailouts during the epidemic), but also reflects the sharp decline in the spending power of ordinary people, which will hinder economic recovery.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8aef3db6e58d10c666a84973ed058846\" tg-width=\"479\" tg-height=\"266\"></p><p>(Percentage of U.S. households facing food shortages and lack of housing security. Data source: U.S. Census Bureau)</p><p><b>(2) On the other hand, the madness of the market is unexpected.</b></p><p><b>First of all, the stock market rebounded extremely quickly and hit new highs.</b>The S&P 500 index fell nearly 30% in a month in the first quarter, then quickly rebounded, recovering lost ground and hitting a new high within six months, rising 15% this year as of December 18. The Nasdaq 100 stock index, which is mainly composed of large high-tech companies, has rebounded even more violently after falling nearly 30%, rising more than 45% this year as of December 18. In contrast, during the 2000 crisis, the S&P 500 fell by nearly 50% in two and a half years, and the Nasdaq fell by more than 75%; During the 2008 crisis, the S&P 500 fell 56% in a year and a half, while the Nasdaq fell 54%. In the 2008 crisis, it took six years for the S&P 500 to regain lost ground, while in the 2000 crisis, it took 13 years for the stock index to really recover.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8cf2e241a5358bbd56baf375d616e0af\" tg-width=\"531\" tg-height=\"282\"></p><p>(US Standard 500 and Nasdaq stock index trends. Source: Yahoo Finance)</p><p><b>In addition, the P/E of the stock market has also risen to historical highs.</b>Shiller, the Nobel Prize-winning president in economics, advocated the use of Schiller P/E (P/E), in which the denominator uses the average of the company's long-term profits (10-15 years), instead of the commonly used profits in the past or next 12 months. This can cover the entire economic cycle and better reflect the reasonable valuation of the stock market. As can be seen from the figure below, Schiller P/E (15 years) has reached 35 at the beginning of this year, significantly exceeding the levels before the stock market crashes in 1929 (27) and 2008 (29), and only lower than the level during the Internet bubble in 2000. High valuation does not mean that the stock market must plummet. For example, the current valuation of the stock market is equivalent to the level of 1998, when the stock market still rose for two years before finally collapsing. As can also be seen from the figure below, previous stock market bubbles in history have often been punctured by economic crises, and the higher the stock market valuation, the heavier the crisis, and the greater the decline. As of December 18, Schiller P/E (15 years) has risen to 39. Investment experts often defend high valuations with low interest rates and lack of alternative investment options, which we will discuss in the next section through historical data.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b7fd7fe83806353768a2e0d19ac8a536\" tg-width=\"550\" tg-height=\"246\"></p><p>(The 15-year Schiller PE of the S&P 500 in the United States, the gray part is the economic crisis. Data source dqydj.com)</p><p>meanwhile<b>, the IPO market is also in an unprecedented hot state, and it also ignores the company's fundamentals.</b>The amount of IPO financing in 2020 is close to US $150 billion, far exceeding the last peak level of US $100 billion in 1999 and 2000 (chart below). At the same time, investors seem to ignore the company's performance, and more than 80% of IPO companies are at a loss, which is similar to the peak of the Internet in 2000. For example, the recent listing of Airbnb, an Internet travel rental company whose business has been hit hard under the impact of the epidemic, not only received a valuation of US $100 billion in its IPO, but also doubled its stock price on the day of listing. This is reminiscent of the madness of investing in Internet companies in 2000.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b764c4abd0c78607d74993f9f6d1bab2\" tg-width=\"550\" tg-height=\"216\"></p><p>(U.S. IPO financing volume, unit 1 billion US dollars. Light color is SPAC, dark color is other IPO. Data source: Bloomberg)</p><p><b>The reasons behind the market madness are worth thinking about.</b>Before the current economic crisis, the valuation of the stock market was higher than before the 2008 crisis, and the degree of the crisis, whether measured by the economic downturn or unemployment, was more serious than the crises of 2000 and 2008. However, the market reacted quite differently, with a brief decline followed by a sharp rebound and constantly hitting new highs. The stock market is seriously divorced from the fundamentals. From the \"rearview mirror\", we can see that there are a series of special reasons behind it.</p><p><b>First, the market doesn't think this will be a long-lasting, deep crisis.</b>Cyclical economic crises like 2000 and 2008, which are protracted, will lead to a large number of companies closing down, and the recovery process is extremely slow. While we realized before the pandemic in the United States that the economy was already on the verge of a cyclical crisis, markets and economists tend to be hindsighted about cyclical economic crises. Therefore, they believe that this is only a temporary impact of the epidemic on the economy, and it will return to normal after the epidemic. As the epidemic worsens, they are increasingly convinced that all fundamental bad news is a temporary impact from the epidemic, rather than a structural problem in the economy.</p><p><b>Second, the Fed's \"unlimited quantification\" fueled the flames.</b>When the stock market plummeted, the Federal Reserve not only cut interest rates to zero, but also announced an \"unlimited\" quantitative easing, injecting massive liquidity into the market by expanding its balance sheet by more than $3 trillion. Even the $1,200 issued by the U.S. government to each person has become a bargaining chip for many retail investors in the stock market. As can be seen from the figure below, the total amount of M2 money in the United States increased by as much as 25% year-on-year, far exceeding the 11% at the peak of the financial crisis in 2008. Such turbulent liquidity has greatly promoted the capital market. A popular saying on Wall Street is: \"Never go against the Fed\".</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/82ee63596ffb216d1d2234190a093fd2\" tg-width=\"550\" tg-height=\"229\"></p><p>(Year-on-year growth rate of U.S. M2 currency. Gray is the recession stage. Data source: Federal Reserve Economic Database FRED)</p><p><b>Third, investors subjectively look for all reasons to support the rise of the stock market.</b>Investors who were unaware of the economic crisis, egged on by abundant liquidity, were willing to look for all reasons to explain the rationality of stock rises. This phenomenon of subjective self-rationalization can be seen from the impact of the general election on the stock market. Before the general election, the Democratic Party is expected to take all the thrones of the president and the Senate. It is explained that the Democratic government has a large stimulus and is conducive to economic recovery, so the stock market has soared. Later, Trump took the lead in votes, explaining that Trump's policy was more conducive to investors, so the stock market soared; Finally, the Democratic Party is the president, and the Republican Party has a high probability of occupying the Senate. This is explained that splitting the government and restricting each other are conducive to policy stability, and the stock market is still soaring. It can be seen that even contradictory news does not affect investors from finding reasons to push the stock market up.</p><p><b>Fourthly, the story of the new high-tech economic model brought about by the epidemic is touching.</b>In the S&P 500 industry index, the technology, consumer discretionary and communication services industries where American technology giants are located have surged by 40%, 28% and 25% respectively this year, while the energy industry directly related to the real economy has plummeted by 33% (below). If you want to form a surge in the stock market, you must have a touching story that everyone can understand. In the 1990s, the Internet changed the economic model, and the stock market would continue to rise; In the 2000s, financial innovation reduced market risks, and the stock market would continue to rise; The 2010s is a long period of low interest rates and reduced return requirements, and the stock market will continue to rise. The story of the epidemic changing human life and ushering in a high-tech future is easy to understand and full of temptation. Of course, many touching stories in the past ended with the stock market crash. Will \"this time is different\"-which is known as the most expensive words in financial history-really come true this time?</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ffc959c59156fb3c546594aee45347e2\" tg-width=\"550\" tg-height=\"241\"></p><p>(The trend of the US S&P 500 industry stock index this year, data source: Yahoo Finance)</p><p><b>Fifth, retail investors flocked to incite the market.</b>This story is so simple that all small investors can understand and agree with it. According to reports, in the United States, which has always been dominated by institutional investors, personal trading accounts and trading activities have increased sharply after the outbreak of the epidemic. Although retail investors have a small amount of funds, they often use derivatives as leverage, so they can incite larger funds and have an excessive impact on the market.</p><p><b>Sixth, digitalization and passive trading have also intensified the market's trend of following suit.</b>Digital trading and passive investing have developed rapidly in the United States in the past 20 years and have grown into the mainstream in recent years. Passive investment does not analyze the fundamentals and buys and sells according to the market direction. Quantitative strategies often focus on short-term trends and can rarely make correct judgments on long-term macro trends. Moreover, the trading logic is mostly similar, resulting in convergence of trading directions. The development of these trading strategies has exacerbated the separation between the market and fundamentals.</p><p><b>The above series of phenomena are actually classic characteristics of market bubbles.</b>Investors who are unaware of the risk of the crisis, driven by the huge liquidity of the Federal Reserve, are looking for all reasons to support the rise of the stock market. They are impressed by a touching story, which drives countless retail investors to flock to it. Coupled with digitalization and passive trading, they encourage follow-up investment. All this leads to the inevitable breeding of bubbles, and the stock market will deviate further and further from the fundamentals. However, history has proved that dignified reality will eventually pull the stock market back to the ground.</p><p><b>The biggest lesson taught us in 2020 is to learn the old Wall Street saying again: \"The market can remain irrational longer than you can.\"</b>The market can stay irrational longer than you can stay solvent. When the market bubble is serious, shorting the market against the current will eventually win, but it may suffer heavy losses for a long period of time.</p><p><b>2. Looking forward to 2021: The outlook is uncertain and the risks are full</b></p><p><b>Looking forward to 2021, a series of optimistic assumptions supporting the stock market cannot be guaranteed to be fully realized, and the risk of bubble bursting cannot be ignored.</b>If the following situations happen, the market will make corresponding adjustments, and even cause the stock market to fall sharply in serious cases.</p><p><b>First, the economic crisis</b>: Even if the epidemic is accused, the crisis may not yet be cleared, and it is difficult for profits to grow rapidly. Demand in the United States was weak before the epidemic and was on the verge of a cyclical economic crisis with relative overproduction, and the epidemic further weakened demand. Even if the epidemic is accused, when a large number of workers lose their jobs and corporate finances are weakened, it will be difficult for consumption and investment demand to recover quickly, and it will be difficult for corporate profits to grow rapidly. What's more, this extreme imbalance between supply and demand usually requires large-scale destruction of capital and production capacity in the form of crisis to reduce supply before it can be cleared, so that the remaining strong companies can restart profitable growth and start a new round of economic cycle. According to Bloomberg data, during the economic crisis from January 2008 to June 2009, a total of 370 companies with debts of more than $50 million in the United States closed down. Since the total debt of non-financial companies in the United States (US $31.2 trillion) has doubled that of 2008 (US $15.4 trillion), the number of companies with debt of more than US $50 million should increase significantly compared with 2008. Therefore, to destroy the same proportion of capital and production capacity, the number of bankrupt companies needs to significantly exceed the 370 in the 2008 crisis. By contrast, as of December 12, only 236 companies with debt size of more than $50 million have failed this year under the unprecedented bailout of the U.S. government. This means that a large number of business closures may still be needed to truly clear the economy. Therefore, the economic crisis may not really end.</p><p><b>Second, the epidemic development</b>: The government's negativity has caused the epidemic to get out of control, and the prospect after the vaccine is released is not yet completely clear. Investment expects that after the vaccine is released, the epidemic situation in the United States can be controlled quickly, normal life can be basically restored, and consumer demand can be released. However, the epidemic situation in the United States is extremely serious, and the diagnosis rate per unit population far exceeds that of other western countries (see the chart below). In addition, due to the misleading propaganda of right-wing politicians such as Trump, many people don't believe in the harmfulness of Novel Coronavirus. Many people who believe in the harmfulness have doubts about the safety of vaccines hastily launched by the government and drug dealers, so most Americans are unwilling to accept vaccines. At the same time, due to the need for ultra-low temperature storage of vaccines in the United States, transportation and distribution are difficult. In this way, it is uncertain when the epidemic will be charged. The longer it drags on, the more companies close down, the worse the financial situation of businesses and individuals, and the more difficult it is for workers to get back into employment, the deeper the long-term impact of the pandemic on economic vitality may be, and the more difficult it will be to recover.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/22992bcf89dd59641632c49c9e0e6a2d\" tg-width=\"510\" tg-height=\"322\"></p><p>(Number of confirmed cases of COVID-19 per 100,000 population: US dark red, EU dark green, Canada red, Japan green, South Korea pink)</p><p><b>Third, government policy: it is difficult to play a sufficient role in truly reversing the economic downturn.</b>On the one hand, although fiscal policy can better alleviate the problem of insufficient demand and promote economic recovery, American capital is unwilling to pay for public investment and social welfare, and its implementation faces many political obstacles. For example, although the scale of the new round of fiscal rescue plan has been reduced from the expected 1.5 trillion US dollars to 900 billion US dollars, it is still wrangled in Congress and has not yet been passed, and the effective infrastructure plan in boosting the economy is even missing. On the other hand, although the ultra-loose monetary policy can support the breeding of asset bubbles, the long-term practice results of the United States, Japan and the European Union have proved that it has a limited effect on the real economy, and it will aggravate the polarization between the rich and the poor, worsen the imbalance between investment and demand, aggravate the economic crisis and cause bubble bursting.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/555a11dee2888ad473cb3cfc2b6fa7ba\" tg-width=\"550\" tg-height=\"240\"></p><p>(Red is the Dow Jones stock index, blue is the 3-month Treasury Bond interest rate, red is the AAA corporate bond yield, and gray is the economic crisis)</p><p>Federal Reserve Chairman Powell recently stated that interest rates will be kept low for a long time. At the same time, he agreed with the mainstream view of the market, saying that the high valuation of the stock market is reasonable in a long-term low interest rate environment. But the historical data is not so optimistic: as can be seen from the above chart, after the Great Depression of 1929, from 1934 to 1945, the interest rate in the United States was low for a long time, the 3-month Treasury Bond was always below 0.5%, and the yield of corporate bonds also dropped to about 3% in 1937. The Dow Jones stock index nearly doubled between 1934 and 1937, but it didn't last long. In 1937, the cyclical economic crisis broke out again. The stock market plummeted by nearly 40% in one year, and then fluctuated down by 15% in four years. It seems that the low interest rate environment can't guarantee the long-term prosperity of the stock market. When it rises depends on whether the economy will be in deep crisis.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/16bb84f7a4f42a58dcb8db7f9a133078\" tg-width=\"550\" tg-height=\"231\"></p><p>(Total consumer credit in the United States. Data source: Federal Reserve Economic Database FRED)</p><p><b>Fourth, debt risk: the personal debt of enterprises is high, and the risk of debt crisis accumulates sharply.</b>First of all, at present, the level of corporate lending and personal consumption debt has far exceeded the level on the eve of the 2008 subprime mortgage crisis. As can be seen from the above chart, the total amount of consumer credit in the United States has been growing in recent years, an increase of 62% compared with before the 2008 crisis. The figure below shows that the leverage ratio of non-financial companies in the United States has now risen to twice that before the 2008 crisis. What's more, the data shows that the current scale of subprime mortgage is higher than before the subprime mortgage crisis. The circulation of BBB-rated bonds, the lowest grade of investment-grade corporate bonds, has been soaring in the past 10 years. By 2019, it has tripled that of the eve of the subprime mortgage crisis, while the proportion of low-rated corporate bonds has risen from less than 20% in 2008 to nearly 40%, doubled. Bloomberg reports show that in 2020, under the impact of the epidemic and the release of water by the Federal Reserve, the issuance of junk bonds in the United States hit a record. Under the current severe economic situation, the risk of debt crisis cannot be ignored. If the debt crisis is transmitted to the financial system and causes a financial crisis, the consequences will be even more unimaginable.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8a4ab5853e27eeca6d818bd4841f82cf\" tg-width=\"550\" tg-height=\"234\"></p><p>(Leverage ratio of U.S. non-financial companies. Data source: Federal Reserve Economic Database)</p><p><b>All in all, in 2020, the U.S. stock market will soar wildly due to the aforementioned reasons under the bleak economic background, but the outlook for 2021 is not so optimistic. It is difficult to guarantee that a series of premises and assumptions supporting the stock market will all be realized, and the numerous risks that may trigger bubble bursting cannot be ignored.</b></p>","source":"XLCJ","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>U.S. Macroeconomic Outlook 2021: Uncertain Outlook, Full of Crisis</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nU.S. Macroeconomic Outlook 2021: Uncertain Outlook, Full of Crisis\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">新浪财经</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2020-12-30 19:27</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><b>1. Looking back on 2020, the economy is bleak and the market is crazy</b></p><p>Looking back on 2020, we correctly predicted the decadent trend of the US economy, but the madness of the market was unexpected.</p><p>(1) On the one hand, our analysis correctly predicted the decadent trend of economy.</p><p>The main basis for our analysis is that, firstly, the U.S. economy is already on the verge of a cyclical economic crisis. Secondly, the U.S. government's passive fight against the epidemic has caused the epidemic to get out of control, which has made the economy worse. Finally, although the scale of national rescue measures is unprecedented, their bias and limitations limit the effectiveness. This has seriously hindered the economic recovery of the United States. Specifically:</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6f651ec27751bf737490082d7ad19609\" tg-width=\"550\" tg-height=\"220\"></p><p>(Credit card delinquency rate of small and medium-sized banks in the United States. Gray is the economic crisis. Data source: Federal Reserve Economic Database)</p><p><b>First of all, the U.S. economy was already quite fragile at the end of last year and is gradually moving towards the next cyclical economic crisis.</b>Although economists of mainstream institutions in the United States were generally optimistic about the economic development of the United States at the beginning of the year, we didn't agree. The root cause of the outbreak of cyclical economic crisis lies in the restricted consumption of people. People's wage growth is sluggish, and they have to rely on borrowing to maintain consumption growth. However, borrowing money for consumption is unsustainable, resulting in people's limited purchasing power being insufficient to absorb the continuously expanding supply, resulting in a relative surplus of production. Product backlogs lead to a decline in corporate profit margins, and when profit margins drop to a certain point, companies will begin to reduce investment, cut working hours, and even start laying off employees. However, this will further reduce investment and consumer demand, and the oversupply will become more serious, leading to a further decline in corporate profits, thus falling into an a vicious circle and eventually triggering an economic crisis. As can be seen from the figure above, as of the fourth quarter of 2019, the credit card delinquency rate of small and medium-sized banks in the United States (which have more low-level customers and are more sensitive to the economy) has exceeded the pre-crisis levels in 2000 and 2008, indicating that consumption growth can no longer be supported by borrowing. The chart below shows that historically, the decline of corporate profit margins to a certain point often led to economic crisis, and last year it was close to this level.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1a0da671f84ef56a0ded9d477c0d76c6\" tg-width=\"550\" tg-height=\"261\"></p><p><b>Other valid leading indicators, including working hours and discretionary consumption growth, also point to the economic crisis.</b>When corporate profits decline, whether it is shortening workers' working hours or cutting staff, the total number of working hours will be reduced. When people's income falls due to unemployment and insufficient working hours, or their debt is unaffordable, they will reduce consumption expansion, especially for discretionary goods. As can be seen from the following two charts, the year-on-year growth rates of total working hours and non-essential goods will begin to decline continuously in the past quarters before the arrival of the economic crisis, warning of the arrival of the crisis. As of the fourth quarter of 2019, both indicators have shown a downward trend. These data and a range of other indicators we looked at show that the economic crisis was already approaching at the end of 2019.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2d1dae247273fd00fc067598efab7b4f\" tg-width=\"550\" tg-height=\"262\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/89a1d2d569ad36ff2653fd34bbbcb9ec\" tg-width=\"550\" tg-height=\"268\"></p><p><b>Second, profits take the lead in passively fighting the epidemic, which makes the epidemic out of control worse.</b>Out of our understanding of the nature of the U.S. government's service to capital, we predicted at the beginning of the outbreak that the U.S. government would put capital profits above people's health and lives, and might refuse to take necessary anti-epidemic measures that would harm profits. Passive fight against the epidemic has caused the epidemic to get out of control. As of December 19, the number of confirmed cases of COVID-19 in the United States exceeded 17.8 million, and the death toll exceeded 310,000. As the U.S. government's anti-epidemic measures continue to relax, the epidemic is getting more and more serious. At present, the daily number of confirmed cases has exceeded 250,000 (below), and the daily death toll has exceeded 3,000, which is even worse than the daily 9/11 terrorist attack (2,606 deaths). The out-of-control epidemic is not caused by the incompetence of the U.S. government as the global military hegemon, but more like a deliberate plan. After all, the vast majority of infections and deaths come from people at the bottom, especially people of color. The rich hide in luxury houses and even small islands, and have the best medical conditions in the world. If we only consider profits, even if 1 million people at the bottom (less than 0.3% of the total population) die, the loss will be smaller than shutting down the economy for two months. However, this greedy, short-sighted and cruel policy of the American ruling class has caused repeated outbreaks and intensification of the epidemic, making the economic recovery of the United States lag behind that of countries accused of the epidemic.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/47ba07e5188dd7a48630121bb33ceda1\" tg-width=\"550\" tg-height=\"222\"></p><p>(The daily number of new confirmed cases of COVID-19 patients in the United States and its 7-day average, data source: The New York Times)</p><p><b>Third, government rescue measures are heavily biased towards capital. Although the scale is unprecedented, the effect is limited.</b>Also out of our understanding of the nature of the U.S. government's service capital, we predict that the U.S. government's rescue measures will be greatly biased towards big capital rather than ordinary people. This means that the monetary policy of printing money out of thin air to save capital will be extremely loose, while the fiscal policy that requires capital to pay the bill may be sloppy and biased. Sure enough, the Federal Reserve first quickly lowered interest rates to zero in early March when the epidemic began to appear, launched an unprecedented \"unlimited quantitative easing\" monetary policy, and expanded its balance sheet by US $3 trillion within three months to save the market (picture below). At the end of March, the U.S. government launched the first round of fiscal stimulus plan of 2 trillion yuan, the largest part of which was used to rescue American enterprises (44%), only 15% subsidized American families, and 15% increased unemployment benefits. Even the relief to the American people is to ensure that the people can pay their mortgages and rents, so as not to harm the interests of American banks and homeowners. However, the relief for the American people expired at the end of July, and the U.S. Congress has been wrangling for several months to obstruct the introduction of a new round of relief plans. Loose monetary policy can boost asset markets, but history has proved to have limited effect on the real economy. However, the financial stimulus that plays a greater role in the real economy and people's livelihood, especially the effective public investment in infrastructure, science, education and welfare, is missing. The U.S. government's policies will not only create debt and asset bubbles, but also aggravate people's suffering and hinder the real recovery of the U.S. economy.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/632d4b87e4d45512790a4f708967523d\" tg-width=\"550\" tg-height=\"239\"></p><p>(Net total assets of the Federal Reserve. Gray is the economic crisis. Data source: Federal Reserve Economic Database FRED)</p><p><b>The actual data verifies our forecast that the U.S. economy is in severe decline and the recovery tends to stagnate.</b></p><p><b>First, GDP has shrunk significantly.</b>As can be seen from the figure below, U.S. GDP plummeted by 9% year-on-year under the impact of the epidemic. Despite the resumption of work at the end of April, GDP still shrank by 2.9% year-on-year in the third quarter, and forward-looking private investment shrank by 3.8% year-on-year. Subsequent data showed that the improvement tended to stagnate.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/bd4cc475fe14a0160091059bdf898b2d\" tg-width=\"550\" tg-height=\"222\"></p><p>(U.S. GDP year-on-year growth rate, data source: Federal Reserve Economic Database FRED)</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/be5b3bd52de2660ae58c5556db18cfc8\" tg-width=\"550\" tg-height=\"217\"></p><p>(Monthly year-on-year growth rate: blue is industrial production, red is actual private consumption. Data source: FRED)</p><p><b>To make matters worse, the recent recovery in production and consumption has stalled.</b>According to the latest monthly data (above), the gross industrial output shrank by 5.5% year-on-year in November, worse than in October; Real private consumption, which accounts for 70% of U.S. GDP, grew at a year-on-year rate of-1.8% in October (nearly 5 percentage points lower than the pre-epidemic growth rate). High-frequency data through December 14 shows (below) that credit card spending contracted by 4.7% compared with the same period last year, and the recovery has stalled since October.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/093623e7822b7c5a3ff823d9f402fdfe\" tg-width=\"405\" tg-height=\"264\"></p><p>(YoY 7-day average of Chase Bank credit card spending, as of December 14. Data source: JPMorgan Chase Bank)</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c775b545636006c32be575d3ed551881\" tg-width=\"550\" tg-height=\"239\"></p><p>(U.S. non-farm payrolls increased month-on-month, data source: Federal Reserve Economic Database FRED)</p><p><b>Most seriously, the improvement in employment has reversed.</b>Employment is the pillar of consumption and the most important internal driving force of economic recovery, so it is the core indicator to measure economic recovery. As can be seen from the above chart, as of early November, the month-on-month growth of non-farm payrolls in the United States has continued to slow down since May. The high-frequency data as of December 14th (below) shows that the improvement in employment has begun to reverse in the last month, and the total number of employed people has begun to decline, more than 10 million lower than that in February. This does not include the semi-unemployed population caused by the economic downturn.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/227c3e19fd3b768a13b57d197f62dcd4\" tg-width=\"433\" tg-height=\"262\"></p><p>(Total non-farm payrolls: official data (blue) vs. other data (yellow). Data source: JPMorgan Chase Bank)</p><p><b>In addition, due to the bleak economic outlook, banks continue to tighten their monetary policy despite abundant liquidity.</b>According to the bank survey data released by the Federal Reserve in November (below), in the second quarter, banks generally raised their commercial loan standards for large and medium-sized enterprises (the number of banks that raised their standards was 70 percentage points more than that that did not), and in the third quarter, most banks continued to raise their loan standards (38 percentage points more than those that did not). Similarly, after banks generally raised their personal consumption credit standards in the second quarter, most banks continued to raise their standards in the third quarter. The continuous improvement of credit standards by banks reflects that banks are increasingly pessimistic about the economic outlook, which will also lead to credit tension and affect corporate operations and consumption recovery.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e0e2a88c1f32b115bd13657865b2ee15\" tg-width=\"550\" tg-height=\"234\"></p><p>(Net proportion of banks that have raised their credit standards: commercial loans in blue and personal consumption credit in red. Data source: FRED)</p><p><b>At the same time, the life of the people at the bottom of the United States is becoming increasingly difficult, hindering economic recovery.</b>Severe unemployment, insufficient government assistance, and lack of access to borrowing make it difficult for many families in the United States to afford the most basic living needs. According to U.S. government data (below), 12.7% of American families are currently facing food shortages, and 9.1% of families lack housing security. For the most powerful country in the world, this not only reflects the extreme social injustice (it is reported that the richest class in the United States greatly increased their wealth due to government bailouts during the epidemic), but also reflects the sharp decline in the spending power of ordinary people, which will hinder economic recovery.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8aef3db6e58d10c666a84973ed058846\" tg-width=\"479\" tg-height=\"266\"></p><p>(Percentage of U.S. households facing food shortages and lack of housing security. Data source: U.S. Census Bureau)</p><p><b>(2) On the other hand, the madness of the market is unexpected.</b></p><p><b>First of all, the stock market rebounded extremely quickly and hit new highs.</b>The S&P 500 index fell nearly 30% in a month in the first quarter, then quickly rebounded, recovering lost ground and hitting a new high within six months, rising 15% this year as of December 18. The Nasdaq 100 stock index, which is mainly composed of large high-tech companies, has rebounded even more violently after falling nearly 30%, rising more than 45% this year as of December 18. In contrast, during the 2000 crisis, the S&P 500 fell by nearly 50% in two and a half years, and the Nasdaq fell by more than 75%; During the 2008 crisis, the S&P 500 fell 56% in a year and a half, while the Nasdaq fell 54%. In the 2008 crisis, it took six years for the S&P 500 to regain lost ground, while in the 2000 crisis, it took 13 years for the stock index to really recover.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8cf2e241a5358bbd56baf375d616e0af\" tg-width=\"531\" tg-height=\"282\"></p><p>(US Standard 500 and Nasdaq stock index trends. Source: Yahoo Finance)</p><p><b>In addition, the P/E of the stock market has also risen to historical highs.</b>Shiller, the Nobel Prize-winning president in economics, advocated the use of Schiller P/E (P/E), in which the denominator uses the average of the company's long-term profits (10-15 years), instead of the commonly used profits in the past or next 12 months. This can cover the entire economic cycle and better reflect the reasonable valuation of the stock market. As can be seen from the figure below, Schiller P/E (15 years) has reached 35 at the beginning of this year, significantly exceeding the levels before the stock market crashes in 1929 (27) and 2008 (29), and only lower than the level during the Internet bubble in 2000. High valuation does not mean that the stock market must plummet. For example, the current valuation of the stock market is equivalent to the level of 1998, when the stock market still rose for two years before finally collapsing. As can also be seen from the figure below, previous stock market bubbles in history have often been punctured by economic crises, and the higher the stock market valuation, the heavier the crisis, and the greater the decline. As of December 18, Schiller P/E (15 years) has risen to 39. Investment experts often defend high valuations with low interest rates and lack of alternative investment options, which we will discuss in the next section through historical data.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b7fd7fe83806353768a2e0d19ac8a536\" tg-width=\"550\" tg-height=\"246\"></p><p>(The 15-year Schiller PE of the S&P 500 in the United States, the gray part is the economic crisis. Data source dqydj.com)</p><p>meanwhile<b>, the IPO market is also in an unprecedented hot state, and it also ignores the company's fundamentals.</b>The amount of IPO financing in 2020 is close to US $150 billion, far exceeding the last peak level of US $100 billion in 1999 and 2000 (chart below). At the same time, investors seem to ignore the company's performance, and more than 80% of IPO companies are at a loss, which is similar to the peak of the Internet in 2000. For example, the recent listing of Airbnb, an Internet travel rental company whose business has been hit hard under the impact of the epidemic, not only received a valuation of US $100 billion in its IPO, but also doubled its stock price on the day of listing. This is reminiscent of the madness of investing in Internet companies in 2000.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b764c4abd0c78607d74993f9f6d1bab2\" tg-width=\"550\" tg-height=\"216\"></p><p>(U.S. IPO financing volume, unit 1 billion US dollars. Light color is SPAC, dark color is other IPO. Data source: Bloomberg)</p><p><b>The reasons behind the market madness are worth thinking about.</b>Before the current economic crisis, the valuation of the stock market was higher than before the 2008 crisis, and the degree of the crisis, whether measured by the economic downturn or unemployment, was more serious than the crises of 2000 and 2008. However, the market reacted quite differently, with a brief decline followed by a sharp rebound and constantly hitting new highs. The stock market is seriously divorced from the fundamentals. From the \"rearview mirror\", we can see that there are a series of special reasons behind it.</p><p><b>First, the market doesn't think this will be a long-lasting, deep crisis.</b>Cyclical economic crises like 2000 and 2008, which are protracted, will lead to a large number of companies closing down, and the recovery process is extremely slow. While we realized before the pandemic in the United States that the economy was already on the verge of a cyclical crisis, markets and economists tend to be hindsighted about cyclical economic crises. Therefore, they believe that this is only a temporary impact of the epidemic on the economy, and it will return to normal after the epidemic. As the epidemic worsens, they are increasingly convinced that all fundamental bad news is a temporary impact from the epidemic, rather than a structural problem in the economy.</p><p><b>Second, the Fed's \"unlimited quantification\" fueled the flames.</b>When the stock market plummeted, the Federal Reserve not only cut interest rates to zero, but also announced an \"unlimited\" quantitative easing, injecting massive liquidity into the market by expanding its balance sheet by more than $3 trillion. Even the $1,200 issued by the U.S. government to each person has become a bargaining chip for many retail investors in the stock market. As can be seen from the figure below, the total amount of M2 money in the United States increased by as much as 25% year-on-year, far exceeding the 11% at the peak of the financial crisis in 2008. Such turbulent liquidity has greatly promoted the capital market. A popular saying on Wall Street is: \"Never go against the Fed\".</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/82ee63596ffb216d1d2234190a093fd2\" tg-width=\"550\" tg-height=\"229\"></p><p>(Year-on-year growth rate of U.S. M2 currency. Gray is the recession stage. Data source: Federal Reserve Economic Database FRED)</p><p><b>Third, investors subjectively look for all reasons to support the rise of the stock market.</b>Investors who were unaware of the economic crisis, egged on by abundant liquidity, were willing to look for all reasons to explain the rationality of stock rises. This phenomenon of subjective self-rationalization can be seen from the impact of the general election on the stock market. Before the general election, the Democratic Party is expected to take all the thrones of the president and the Senate. It is explained that the Democratic government has a large stimulus and is conducive to economic recovery, so the stock market has soared. Later, Trump took the lead in votes, explaining that Trump's policy was more conducive to investors, so the stock market soared; Finally, the Democratic Party is the president, and the Republican Party has a high probability of occupying the Senate. This is explained that splitting the government and restricting each other are conducive to policy stability, and the stock market is still soaring. It can be seen that even contradictory news does not affect investors from finding reasons to push the stock market up.</p><p><b>Fourthly, the story of the new high-tech economic model brought about by the epidemic is touching.</b>In the S&P 500 industry index, the technology, consumer discretionary and communication services industries where American technology giants are located have surged by 40%, 28% and 25% respectively this year, while the energy industry directly related to the real economy has plummeted by 33% (below). If you want to form a surge in the stock market, you must have a touching story that everyone can understand. In the 1990s, the Internet changed the economic model, and the stock market would continue to rise; In the 2000s, financial innovation reduced market risks, and the stock market would continue to rise; The 2010s is a long period of low interest rates and reduced return requirements, and the stock market will continue to rise. The story of the epidemic changing human life and ushering in a high-tech future is easy to understand and full of temptation. Of course, many touching stories in the past ended with the stock market crash. Will \"this time is different\"-which is known as the most expensive words in financial history-really come true this time?</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ffc959c59156fb3c546594aee45347e2\" tg-width=\"550\" tg-height=\"241\"></p><p>(The trend of the US S&P 500 industry stock index this year, data source: Yahoo Finance)</p><p><b>Fifth, retail investors flocked to incite the market.</b>This story is so simple that all small investors can understand and agree with it. According to reports, in the United States, which has always been dominated by institutional investors, personal trading accounts and trading activities have increased sharply after the outbreak of the epidemic. Although retail investors have a small amount of funds, they often use derivatives as leverage, so they can incite larger funds and have an excessive impact on the market.</p><p><b>Sixth, digitalization and passive trading have also intensified the market's trend of following suit.</b>Digital trading and passive investing have developed rapidly in the United States in the past 20 years and have grown into the mainstream in recent years. Passive investment does not analyze the fundamentals and buys and sells according to the market direction. Quantitative strategies often focus on short-term trends and can rarely make correct judgments on long-term macro trends. Moreover, the trading logic is mostly similar, resulting in convergence of trading directions. The development of these trading strategies has exacerbated the separation between the market and fundamentals.</p><p><b>The above series of phenomena are actually classic characteristics of market bubbles.</b>Investors who are unaware of the risk of the crisis, driven by the huge liquidity of the Federal Reserve, are looking for all reasons to support the rise of the stock market. They are impressed by a touching story, which drives countless retail investors to flock to it. Coupled with digitalization and passive trading, they encourage follow-up investment. All this leads to the inevitable breeding of bubbles, and the stock market will deviate further and further from the fundamentals. However, history has proved that dignified reality will eventually pull the stock market back to the ground.</p><p><b>The biggest lesson taught us in 2020 is to learn the old Wall Street saying again: \"The market can remain irrational longer than you can.\"</b>The market can stay irrational longer than you can stay solvent. When the market bubble is serious, shorting the market against the current will eventually win, but it may suffer heavy losses for a long period of time.</p><p><b>2. Looking forward to 2021: The outlook is uncertain and the risks are full</b></p><p><b>Looking forward to 2021, a series of optimistic assumptions supporting the stock market cannot be guaranteed to be fully realized, and the risk of bubble bursting cannot be ignored.</b>If the following situations happen, the market will make corresponding adjustments, and even cause the stock market to fall sharply in serious cases.</p><p><b>First, the economic crisis</b>: Even if the epidemic is accused, the crisis may not yet be cleared, and it is difficult for profits to grow rapidly. Demand in the United States was weak before the epidemic and was on the verge of a cyclical economic crisis with relative overproduction, and the epidemic further weakened demand. Even if the epidemic is accused, when a large number of workers lose their jobs and corporate finances are weakened, it will be difficult for consumption and investment demand to recover quickly, and it will be difficult for corporate profits to grow rapidly. What's more, this extreme imbalance between supply and demand usually requires large-scale destruction of capital and production capacity in the form of crisis to reduce supply before it can be cleared, so that the remaining strong companies can restart profitable growth and start a new round of economic cycle. According to Bloomberg data, during the economic crisis from January 2008 to June 2009, a total of 370 companies with debts of more than $50 million in the United States closed down. Since the total debt of non-financial companies in the United States (US $31.2 trillion) has doubled that of 2008 (US $15.4 trillion), the number of companies with debt of more than US $50 million should increase significantly compared with 2008. Therefore, to destroy the same proportion of capital and production capacity, the number of bankrupt companies needs to significantly exceed the 370 in the 2008 crisis. By contrast, as of December 12, only 236 companies with debt size of more than $50 million have failed this year under the unprecedented bailout of the U.S. government. This means that a large number of business closures may still be needed to truly clear the economy. Therefore, the economic crisis may not really end.</p><p><b>Second, the epidemic development</b>: The government's negativity has caused the epidemic to get out of control, and the prospect after the vaccine is released is not yet completely clear. Investment expects that after the vaccine is released, the epidemic situation in the United States can be controlled quickly, normal life can be basically restored, and consumer demand can be released. However, the epidemic situation in the United States is extremely serious, and the diagnosis rate per unit population far exceeds that of other western countries (see the chart below). In addition, due to the misleading propaganda of right-wing politicians such as Trump, many people don't believe in the harmfulness of Novel Coronavirus. Many people who believe in the harmfulness have doubts about the safety of vaccines hastily launched by the government and drug dealers, so most Americans are unwilling to accept vaccines. At the same time, due to the need for ultra-low temperature storage of vaccines in the United States, transportation and distribution are difficult. In this way, it is uncertain when the epidemic will be charged. The longer it drags on, the more companies close down, the worse the financial situation of businesses and individuals, and the more difficult it is for workers to get back into employment, the deeper the long-term impact of the pandemic on economic vitality may be, and the more difficult it will be to recover.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/22992bcf89dd59641632c49c9e0e6a2d\" tg-width=\"510\" tg-height=\"322\"></p><p>(Number of confirmed cases of COVID-19 per 100,000 population: US dark red, EU dark green, Canada red, Japan green, South Korea pink)</p><p><b>Third, government policy: it is difficult to play a sufficient role in truly reversing the economic downturn.</b>On the one hand, although fiscal policy can better alleviate the problem of insufficient demand and promote economic recovery, American capital is unwilling to pay for public investment and social welfare, and its implementation faces many political obstacles. For example, although the scale of the new round of fiscal rescue plan has been reduced from the expected 1.5 trillion US dollars to 900 billion US dollars, it is still wrangled in Congress and has not yet been passed, and the effective infrastructure plan in boosting the economy is even missing. On the other hand, although the ultra-loose monetary policy can support the breeding of asset bubbles, the long-term practice results of the United States, Japan and the European Union have proved that it has a limited effect on the real economy, and it will aggravate the polarization between the rich and the poor, worsen the imbalance between investment and demand, aggravate the economic crisis and cause bubble bursting.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/555a11dee2888ad473cb3cfc2b6fa7ba\" tg-width=\"550\" tg-height=\"240\"></p><p>(Red is the Dow Jones stock index, blue is the 3-month Treasury Bond interest rate, red is the AAA corporate bond yield, and gray is the economic crisis)</p><p>Federal Reserve Chairman Powell recently stated that interest rates will be kept low for a long time. At the same time, he agreed with the mainstream view of the market, saying that the high valuation of the stock market is reasonable in a long-term low interest rate environment. But the historical data is not so optimistic: as can be seen from the above chart, after the Great Depression of 1929, from 1934 to 1945, the interest rate in the United States was low for a long time, the 3-month Treasury Bond was always below 0.5%, and the yield of corporate bonds also dropped to about 3% in 1937. The Dow Jones stock index nearly doubled between 1934 and 1937, but it didn't last long. In 1937, the cyclical economic crisis broke out again. The stock market plummeted by nearly 40% in one year, and then fluctuated down by 15% in four years. It seems that the low interest rate environment can't guarantee the long-term prosperity of the stock market. When it rises depends on whether the economy will be in deep crisis.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/16bb84f7a4f42a58dcb8db7f9a133078\" tg-width=\"550\" tg-height=\"231\"></p><p>(Total consumer credit in the United States. Data source: Federal Reserve Economic Database FRED)</p><p><b>Fourth, debt risk: the personal debt of enterprises is high, and the risk of debt crisis accumulates sharply.</b>First of all, at present, the level of corporate lending and personal consumption debt has far exceeded the level on the eve of the 2008 subprime mortgage crisis. As can be seen from the above chart, the total amount of consumer credit in the United States has been growing in recent years, an increase of 62% compared with before the 2008 crisis. The figure below shows that the leverage ratio of non-financial companies in the United States has now risen to twice that before the 2008 crisis. What's more, the data shows that the current scale of subprime mortgage is higher than before the subprime mortgage crisis. The circulation of BBB-rated bonds, the lowest grade of investment-grade corporate bonds, has been soaring in the past 10 years. By 2019, it has tripled that of the eve of the subprime mortgage crisis, while the proportion of low-rated corporate bonds has risen from less than 20% in 2008 to nearly 40%, doubled. Bloomberg reports show that in 2020, under the impact of the epidemic and the release of water by the Federal Reserve, the issuance of junk bonds in the United States hit a record. Under the current severe economic situation, the risk of debt crisis cannot be ignored. If the debt crisis is transmitted to the financial system and causes a financial crisis, the consequences will be even more unimaginable.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8a4ab5853e27eeca6d818bd4841f82cf\" tg-width=\"550\" tg-height=\"234\"></p><p>(Leverage ratio of U.S. non-financial companies. Data source: Federal Reserve Economic Database)</p><p><b>All in all, in 2020, the U.S. stock market will soar wildly due to the aforementioned reasons under the bleak economic background, but the outlook for 2021 is not so optimistic. It is difficult to guarantee that a series of premises and assumptions supporting the stock market will all be realized, and the numerous risks that may trigger bubble bursting cannot be ignored.</b></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> source：<a href=\"http://finance.sina.com.cn/zl/authority/2020-12-30/zl-iiznezxs9753548.shtml\">新浪财经</a></p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/41f81b99b97a59da55dd70fd1af475cb","relate_stocks":{".SPX":"S&P 500 Index","SPY":"标普500ETF",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite",".DJI":"道琼斯"},"source_url":"http://finance.sina.com.cn/zl/authority/2020-12-30/zl-iiznezxs9753548.shtml","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1154691529","content_text":"一、回顾2020，经济惨淡市场疯狂\n回顾2020，我们正确预测了美国经济颓废走势，然而市场的疯狂却出乎意料。\n（一）一方面，我们的分析正确预测了经济的颓废走势。\n我们分析的主要依据，首先是美国经济原本就处于周期性经济危机边缘，其次美国政府消极抗疫导致疫情失控对经济更是雪上加霜，最后国家救助措施虽然规模空前，但其偏向性和局限性限制了有效程度。这都严重阻碍了美国的经济复苏。具体来讲：\n\n（美国中小银行信用卡拖欠率。灰色为经济危机。数据来源：美联储经济数据库）\n首先，美国经济体在去年底已经相当脆弱，正在逐步走向下一次周期性经济危机。尽管年初美国主流机构经济学家普遍看好美国经济发展，我们却不以为然。周期性经济危机爆发的根源在于民众受限制的消费。民众工资增长低迷，不得不依靠借债去维持消费增长。但借钱消费不可持续，导致民众有限的购买力不足以吸收持续扩张的供给，形成生产的相对过剩。产品积压导致企业利润率下降，而当利润率下滑到一定地步，企业便会开始降低投资、削减工时，甚至开始裁员。但这会进一步降低投资和消费需求，供过于求会变得更加严重，导致企业利润进一步下滑，因而陷入恶性循环，最终引发经济危机。从上图可见，截至2019年第四季度，美国中小银行（其底层客户较多，对经济更加敏感）信用卡拖欠率已经超过2000和2008年危机前水平，显示消费增长已难以再靠借债支撑。下图显示，历史上企业利润率下滑到一定地步往往便会引发经济危机，而去年已经接近这一水平。\n\n其他有效领先指标，包括工作时间和非必需消费增长，同样指向经济危机。当企业利润下降时，无论是缩短工人工作时间，还是裁减人员，都会压缩工作总小时数。而民众因失业和工时不足而收入下降，或者债务难以负担之时，便会减少消费扩张，尤其是非必需品。以下两张图表可见，工作总小时数和非必需品的同比增长率，在过去经济危机到来前若干个季度都会开始持续下降，预警危机到来。截至2019年第四季度，这两个指标均已显示出下滑趋势。这些数据和我们观察的其他一系列指标显示，经济危机在2019年底已经在步步逼近。\n\n第二，利润当先消极抗疫，疫情失控雪上加霜。出于对美国政府服务资本这一本质的理解，我们在疫情爆发之初便预计美国政府将把资本利润置于民众健康和生命之上，可能会拒不采取有损利润的必要抗疫措施。消极抗疫导致疫情失控，截至12月19日美国新冠确诊人数超过1780万，死亡人数超过31万。随着美国政府抗疫措施不断松懈，疫情一波比一波严重，目前每日确诊人数已经超过25万（下图），每日死亡人数超过3000人，比每天一次911恐怖袭击事件（死亡2606人）还要糟糕。疫情失控并非是作为全球军事霸主的美国政府无能所致，而更像是蓄意的谋划。毕竟被感染和死亡的绝大部分来自底层民众，特别是有色人种，富人则躲在豪宅甚至小岛之上，并且拥有世界最佳的医疗条件。如果仅从利润考虑，即使死掉100万人底层民众（不到总人口的0.3%），也比把经济关闭2个月损失要小。但美国统治阶级这一贪婪、短视和残酷的政策，却使疫情反复爆发且愈演愈烈，使得美国经济复苏滞后于疫情被控的国家。\n\n（美国新冠患者每日新确诊人数及其7日平均，数据来源《纽约时报》）\n第三，政府救助措施严重偏向资本，虽然规模空前但效果受限。同样是出于对美国政府服务资本这一本质的认识，我们预测了美国政府的救助措施将极大偏向大资本，而非普通民众。这意味着凭空印钱去拯救资本的货币政策将会极为宽松，而需要资本买单的财政政策则可能拖泥带水，而且偏向性明显。果不其然，美联储在疫情初显的3月初便首先迅速将利率迅速降低至零点，并且推出了空前的“无限量化宽松”货币政策，并在3个月内扩表3万亿美元拯救市场（下图）。3月末，美国政府推出2万亿首轮财政刺激计划，而其中最大部分用于救助美国企业（44%），仅15%补贴美国家庭，15%加大失业救济。即使对美国民众的救济，也是考虑到要保障百姓能够支付房贷和房租，以免损害美国银行和房主利益。然而，对美国民众的救济在7月底已经过期，美国国会已经扯皮数月，阻挠新一轮救济计划出台。宽松的货币政策可以推动资产市场，但历史证明对实体经济却效果有限。而对实体经济和民生作用更大的财政刺激，特别是行之有效的基建、科教和福利等的公共投资，更是渺无踪影。美国政府的政策，将在制造债务和资产泡沫的同时，加剧民众苦难，阻碍美国经济的真正复苏。\n\n（美联储净总资产。灰色为经济危机。数据来源：美联储经济数据库FRED）\n实际数据验证了我们的预测，美国经济严重下滑，并且复苏趋于停滞。\n首先，GDP严重萎缩。由下图可见，在疫情打击下美国GDP同比暴跌9%。尽管4月底已经开始复工，到第三季度GDP依然同比萎缩2.9%，具有前瞻性的私人投资同比萎缩3.8%，而之后的数据显示改善趋于停滞。\n\n（美国GDP同比增长率，数据来源：美联储经济数据库FRED）\n\n（月度同比增长率：蓝色为工业生产，红色为实际私人消费。数据来源：FRED）\n更糟糕的是，近期生产和消费复苏均趋于停滞状态。最新月度数据显示（上图），工业生产总值在11月份同比萎缩5.5%，比10月份还糟；而占美国GDP 70%的实际私人消费10月份同比增长率为-1.8%（比疫情前增长速度低5近个百分点）。截至12月14日的高频数据显示（下图），信用卡消费与去年同期相比萎缩4.7%，并且从10月份开始复苏出现停滞。\n\n（美国大通银行信用卡消费同比7天平均值，截至12月14日。数据来源：摩根大通银行）\n\n（美国非农就业人数环比增长，数据来源：美联储经济数据库FRED）\n最为严重的是，就业改善出现逆转。就业是消费的支柱，是经济复苏最主要内在动力，因此是衡量经济复苏的核心指标。由上图可见，截至11月上旬，美国非农就业环比增长自5月份以来持续放缓。而截至12月14日的高频数据显示（下图），最近一个月就业改善开始逆转，总就业人数开始下滑，比2月份降低超过1000万人，这还不包括因经济不景气而造成的半失业人口。\n\n（非农就业总人数：官方数据（蓝）与其他数据（黄）。数据来源：摩根大通银行）\n此外，由于经济前景黯淡，银行在充沛的流动性下，却继续收紧银根。美联储11月份发布的银行调研数据显示（下图），第二季度银行普遍对大中型企业提高商业贷款标准（提高标准的银行数量比未提高的要多出70个百分点），第三季度绝大部分银行在继续提高贷款标准（提高标准的比未提高的多38个百分点）。与此类似，银行在第二季度普遍提高个人消费信贷标准之后，大部分银行在第三季度继续提高标准。银行不断提高信贷标准，反映了银行对经济前景越来越悲观，也会导致信用紧张，影响公司运作和消费复苏。\n\n（提高信用标准的银行净比例：蓝色为商业贷款，红色为个人消费信贷。数据来源：FRED）\n同时，美国底层民众生活日益困难，阻碍经济复苏。严重失业、政府救助不足，再加上借贷无门，导致美国众多家庭难以负担最基本的生活需要。美国政府数据显示（下图），目前有12.7%的美国家庭面临食物短缺，9.1%的家庭缺乏住房保障。对于全球最强大的国家来说，这不仅反映了社会的极度不公（据报道美国最富有阶层在疫情期间由于政府救助而财富大增），而且体现了普通民众消费能力的大幅下降，这将会阻碍经济复苏。\n\n（美国面临食物短缺和缺乏住房保障的家庭比例。数据来源：美国人口普查局）\n（二）另一方面，市场的疯狂出乎意料。\n首先，股市反弹异常迅速，并且连创新高。标普500指数在第一季度一个月之内下跌近30%，然后迅速反弹，6个月内便收复失地且再创新高，截至12月18日今年上涨15%。主要由高科技大公司组成的纳斯达克100股指，在下跌近30%后，反弹更加猛烈，截至12月18日今年上涨超过45%。相比之下，2000年危机，标普500在两年半期间下跌近50%，纳斯达克下跌则超过75%；2008危机，标普500在一年半期间下跌56%，纳斯达克则下跌54%。2008年危机，标普500在6年之后才收复失地，而2000年危机，股指则在13年后才真正恢复。\n\n（美国标500和纳斯达克股指走势。数据来源：雅虎金融）\n此外，股市的市盈率也上升到历史高位。诺贝尔经济学奖得主席勒（Shiller）倡导使用席勒市盈率（P/E），其中分母使用公司长期盈利的平均值（10-15年），取代常用的过去或者未来12个月的盈利。这样可以覆盖整个经济周期，更好反映股市的合理估值。由下图可见，在今年年初席勒P/E（15年）已经高达35，显著超过1929年（27）和2008年（29）大股灾前的水平，仅低于2000年互联网泡沫时的水平。高估值并不意味着股市一定要大跌，例如目前股市估值相当于1998年水平，那时股市依然大涨了两年才最终崩溃。从下图也可以看出，史上历次股市泡沫往往是被经济危机刺破，而且股市估值越高，危机程度越重，下跌幅度就越大。截至12月18日，席勒P/E（15年）已经上升到39。投资专家往往用利率低迷缺乏其他投资选择来为高估值辩护，我们在下节会通过历史数据进行商榷。\n\n（美国标普500的15年席勒PE，灰色部分为经济危机。数据来源dqydj.com）\n同时，IPO市场也处于空前火热状态，而且同样无视公司基本面。2020年IPO融资量接近1500亿美元，远远超过上次高峰1999和2000年的1000亿美元水平（下图）。与此同时，投资人似乎不计公司业绩，有超过80%的IPO公司处于亏损状态，这一比率也与2000年互联网巅峰时相近。例如近日Airbnb的上市，这一在疫情冲击下业务受到沉重打击的互联网旅游租房公司，不仅在IPO中获得1000亿美元估值，而且上市当天股价翻倍。这让人不禁想起2000年投资互联网公司的疯狂。\n\n（美国IPO融资量，单位10亿美元。浅色为SPAC，深色为其他IPO。数据来源：彭博）\n市场疯狂背后的原因值得思考。本轮经济危机之前，股市估值比2008年危机前还高，而且危机程度不论是以经济下滑还是人员失业来衡量，都比2000年和2008年危机更为严重。然而，市场的反应却大相径庭，短暂下滑之后便剧烈反弹并不断创立新高。股市与基本面严重脱离，从“后视镜”中我们可以看到背后有一系列特别原因。\n首先，市场并不认为这将是一场持久、深度的危机。2000和2008年那样的周期性经济危机，旷日持久，会导致大批公司倒闭，而且复苏过程极为缓慢。虽然我们在美国疫情之前就意识到经济已经处于周期性危机的边缘，但市场和经济学家往往对周期性经济危机后知后觉。因此，他们认为这仅是一场疫情对经济的暂时冲击，疫情过后便会恢复常态。随着疫情愈发加重，他们越来越相信一切基本面的坏消息都是疫情的暂时冲击，而非经济出现结构性问题。\n第二，美联储“无限量化”推波助澜。美联储在股市大跌之时不仅降息至零点，而且宣布“无限量”量化宽松，通过扩表超过3万亿美元，为市场注入海量流动性。连美国政府给每人发放的1200美元也成为许多散户在股市上一搏的筹码。由下图可见，美国M2货币总量同比增长高达25%，远超过2008年金融危机高峰的11%。这样汹涌的流动性，对资本市场起到了巨大的推动作用。华尔街流行的一句话是：“永远不要和美联储作对”。\n\n（美国M2货币同比增长率。灰色为经济衰退阶段。数据来源：美联储经济数据库FRED）\n第三，投资人主观寻找一切理由支持股市上涨。本来就对经济危机毫无察觉的投资人，在充沛流动性的怂恿下，愿意寻找一切理由来解释股票上涨的合理性。从大选对股市的影响中就可以看出这种主观自我合理化的现象。民主党在大选前有望通吃总统和参院宝座，解释为民主党政府刺激幅度大、有利经济复苏，于是股市大涨。特朗普后来选票领先，解释为特朗普政策更有利于投资人，于是股市大涨；最后是民主党当总统，共和党大概率占参院，解释为分裂政府互相制约利于政策稳定，股市依然大涨。可见即使是互相矛盾的消息，也不影响投资人找到理由推动股市上涨。\n第四，疫情带来高科技新经济模式故事动人。标普500行业指数中，美国科技巨头所在的科技、非必需消费和通讯服务行业，今年分别暴涨40%、28%和25%，而与实体经济直接相关的能源行业则暴跌33%（下图）。要想形成股市狂涨大潮，一定要有所有人都听得懂的动人故事。1990年代是互联网改变经济模式，股市将持续上涨；2000年代是金融创新降低市场风险，股市将持续上涨；2010年代是长期低息降低回报要求，股市将持续上涨。疫情改变人类生活，迎来高科技未来的故事，简单易懂，充满诱惑。当然，从前多少动人故事都以股灾结束，“这次不同”--这被誉为金融史上最昂贵的四个字--这次真会实现吗？\n\n（美国标普500行业股指今年走势，数据来源：雅虎金融）\n第五，散户蜂拥而上撬动市场。这个故事简单到所有小股民都能理解和认同。据报道，一贯以机构投资者占统治地位的美国，个人交易账户和交易活动在疫情爆发之后剧增。散户投资者虽然资金量不大，但往往使用衍生品做杠杆，因此可以撬动较大资金，对市场造成超出比例的影响。\n第六，数字化和被动交易，也加剧了市场的跟风趋势。数字化交易和被动投资在过去20年在美国发展迅速，在近年已经成长为主流。被动投资对基本面不做分析，跟随市场方向买卖。而量化策略则往往注重短期趋势，鲜能对长期宏观走势做出正确判断，而且交易逻辑大多相近，导致交易方向趋同。这些交易策略的发展，加剧了市场与基本面的脱离。\n以上的一系列现象，其实都是市场泡沫的经典特征。对危机风险毫无察觉的投资人，在联储巨大流动性推动下，寻找一切支持股市上涨的理由，被一个动人的故事所折服，带动无数散户蜂拥而上，再加上数字化和被动交易助长跟风投资。这一切都导致泡沫的滋生在所难免，股市会背离基本面越来越远。然而历史证明，凝重的现实终究会将股市拉回地面。\n2020年给我们最大的教训，是再次学习了华尔街的那句老话：“市场保持非理性的时间能比你可以支撑的时间更长”（The market can stay irrational longer than you can stay solvent）。在市场泡沫严重的情况下逆流做空市场，虽然最终或将获胜，但在相当长的时期内可能会损失惨重。\n二、展望2021：前景不定风险四伏\n展望2021，支撑股市的一系列乐观假设难保完全实现，泡沫破碎的风险不可忽视。如果以下情况发生，市场便会做出相应调整，情况严重的话甚至会造成股市大幅下行。\n第一，经济危机：即使疫情被控，危机可能尚未出清，利润难以高速增长。美国在疫情之前便需求疲软，处于生产相对过剩的周期性经济危机边缘，而疫情进一步减弱了需求。即使疫情被控，在工人大批失业、企业财政削弱的情况下，消费和投资需求也难以迅速恢复，公司利润便难以高速增长。更为严重的是，这种供需极端不平衡，通常需要以危机形式大规模摧毁资本和产能以降低供给才能出清，使得剩下的强壮公司能够重新开始盈利增长，开始新一轮经济周期。根据彭博数据，2008年1月至2009年6月经济危机期间，美国总共有370家债务规模在5000万美元以上的企业倒闭。由于目前美国非金融公司负债总量（31.2万亿美元）已经增长到2008年（15.4万亿美元）的两倍，负债在5000万美元以上的公司数量比2008年应会显著增加。因此，要摧毁同样比例的资本和产能，破产公司的数目需要显著超过2008年危机的370家。相比之下，截至12月12日，在美国政府的空前巨款救助下，债务规模在5000万美元以上的公司今年只有236家倒闭。这意味着可能依然需要大批企业倒闭才能使经济真正出清。因此，经济危机可能并未真正结束。\n第二，疫情发展：政府消极导致疫情失控，疫苗出笼之后的前景尚未完全明朗。投资预期疫苗出笼后美国疫情可以较快得以控制，正常生活可以基本恢复，消费需求得以释放。然而，美国疫情异常严重，单位人口确诊率远超过其他西方国家（见下图）。此外，由于特朗普等右翼政客的误导宣传，许多民众不相信新冠病毒的危害性。而那些相信危害性的民众，又有不少对政府和药商仓促推出的疫苗的安全性存在质疑，因此有大部分美国人表示不愿接受疫苗。同时，由于美国疫苗需要超低温存储，运输和分配都存在较大困难。这样看来，疫情何时能够被控还不确定。时间拖得越长，公司倒闭越多，企业和个人财政状况越恶化，工人重新就业越困难，疫情对经济活力的长期影响就可能越深，复苏就越困难。\n\n（每10万人口新冠确诊数目：美国深红，欧盟深绿，加拿大红色，日本绿色，韩国粉色）\n第三，政府政策：难以起到足够作用真正扭转经济颓势。一方面，财政政策虽然可以较好缓解需求不足问题推动经济复苏，但美国资本不愿为公共投资和社会福利买单，实施面临重重政治阻力。例如新一轮的财政救助计划，虽然规模由预期的1.5万亿美元降低到9000亿美元，但依然在国会扯皮尚未通过，而对经济提振行之有效的基建计划更是渺无踪影。另一方面，超宽松货币政策虽然可以支撑资产泡沫滋生，但美日欧盟的长期实践结果证明对实体经济作用有限，而且会加剧贫富分化，恶化投资和需求的不平衡，加剧经济危机而引发泡沫破裂。\n\n（红色为道琼斯股指，蓝色为3月期国债利率，红色为AAA级企债收益率，灰色为经济危机）\n美联储主席鲍威尔近期表示将长期保持利率低迷，同时他赞同市场主流观点，表示长期低利率环境下股市高估值合理。但历史数据却没有这么乐观：由上图可见，在1929年大萧条后，从1934年到1945年间，美国利率长期低迷，3月期国债一直在0.5%以下，而企债收益率也在1937年降到了3%左右。道琼斯股指在1934至1937年间大涨近一倍，但好景不长。1937年周期性经济危机再度爆发，股市在一年内暴跌近40%，后来4年震荡下行15%。看来低息环境并不能保障股市长盛不衰，涨到何时要看经济是否会深陷危机。\n\n（美国消费信贷总量。数据来源：美联储经济数据库FRED）\n第四，债务风险：企业个人债台高筑，债务危机风险急剧累积。首先，目前企业借贷和个人消费负债程度已经远超过2008次贷危机前夕水平。由上图可见，美国消费信贷总量近年不断增长，比2008年危机前增加了62%。而下图显示，美国非金融公司的杠杆率目前已经上升到2008年危机前的2倍。更为严重的是，数据显示目前次贷规模比次贷危机前还要高。投资级企债最低档的BBB级债券的发行量过去10年不断飙升，到2019年已经是次贷危机前夕3倍，而低评级公司债的占比由2008年的不到20%上升到近40%，翻了一番。彭博报道显示，2020年在疫情冲击和美联储放水作用下，美国垃圾债发行量创历时记录。在目前经济形势严峻的情况下，债务危机风险不可忽视。如果债务危机传导到金融系统引发金融危机，那后果将更加不堪设想。\n\n（美国非金融公司杠杆率。数据来源：美联储经济数据库）\n总而言之，2020年美国股市在惨淡经济背景下由于前述原因疯狂暴涨，但2021年前景并不那么乐观，支撑股市的一系列前提假设难保全部实现，可能引发泡沫破裂的重重风险不可忽视。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"SPY":0.9,".IXIC":0.9,".DJI":0.9,".SPX":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2035,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0}],"hots":[{"id":179590910,"gmtCreate":1626556613430,"gmtModify":1703761617458,"author":{"id":"3548268462187923","authorId":"3548268462187923","name":"适时做T","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/513358897b9c93a557b2aa918aa95006","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3548268462187923","authorIdStr":"3548268462187923"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"…","listText":"…","text":"…","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/179590910","repostId":"1191979693","repostType":2,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2380,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":388050245,"gmtCreate":1613004159387,"gmtModify":1704877250344,"author":{"id":"3548268462187923","authorId":"3548268462187923","name":"适时做T","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/513358897b9c93a557b2aa918aa95006","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3548268462187923","authorIdStr":"3548268462187923"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"&nbsp;qq","listText":"&nbsp;qq","text":"qq","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/388050245","repostId":"1131026868","repostType":2,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1773,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":185073704,"gmtCreate":1623628822808,"gmtModify":1704207139702,"author":{"id":"3548268462187923","authorId":"3548268462187923","name":"适时做T","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/513358897b9c93a557b2aa918aa95006","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3548268462187923","authorIdStr":"3548268462187923"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"…","listText":"…","text":"…","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/185073704","repostId":"1184301597","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1184301597","kind":"news","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"为用户提供金融资讯、行情、数据，旨在帮助投资者理解世界，做投资决策。","home_visible":1,"media_name":"老虎资讯综合","id":"102","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba"},"pubTimestamp":1623625736,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1184301597?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2021-06-14 07:08","market":"hk","language":"zh","title":"Preview: Angel of the Times goes public on Wednesday; Super Central Bank Week debuts","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1184301597","media":"老虎资讯综合","summary":"周一端午节，港股、A股休市一天，美股照常开市；","content":"<p>SUMMARY<b>：</b></p><p>During the Dragon Boat Festival on Monday, Hong Kong stocks and A-shares were closed for one day, while US stocks opened as usual; In terms of new stocks: Times Angel, the leader of invisible braces, went public on Wednesday, LYEL, a tumor immunotherapy company founded by the head of the National Cancer Institute of the United States, went public on Thursday, and Wanwu Xinsheng, backed by JD.com and Kuaishou, went public in the United States on Friday... Financial events: May Press conference on national economic performance, the Federal Reserve, the Bank of Japan, the Swiss National Bank, etc. will announce interest rate decisions, the adjustment of the FTSE China 50 Index will officially take effect, the second Four Witches Day of the year is approaching, and senior US officials will be dispatched: Biden will attend the NATO summit on Monday and meet with Russian President Putin on Wednesday; Powell held a press conference early Thursday morning; In terms of financial reports: Oracle Bone Inscriptions, Shuidi, Adobe, etc. have successively released financial reports.<b>Monday (June 14) Keywords: Hong Kong stocks A shares are closed for one day due to the Dragon Boat Festival; Biden Attends NATO Summit</b><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f3f22545aaa213bcb461898e38543683\" tg-width=\"620\" tg-height=\"344\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">June 14th (Monday) is the Dragon Boat Festival.<b>A-share Connect, Hong Kong stocks and Hong Kong futures will be closed for one day</b>。 U.S. stocks open as usual.</p><p>The North Atlantic Treaty Organization countries will<b>Summit held at NATO headquarters in Brussels</b>U.S. President Joe Biden will discuss with other NATO leaders on NATO's withdrawal from Afghanistan and the future of the 30 NATO countries. According to media reports, the EU hopes to end the tariff dispute between the two places on the occasion of US President Biden's visit to Europe.</p><p><b>Tuesday (June 15) Keywords: U.S. May retail sales month-on-month, Oracle financial report, AMTD Digital IPO</b></p><p><b>Monthly retail sales rate in May</b>The performance of the economy will reflect the performance of economic momentum. Due to the gradual release of the fiscal stimulus effect of the U.S. government, institutions expect retail sales to decline by 0.8% month-on-month last month after being flat month-on-month in April.</p><p>According to foreign media reports, Maxine Waters, Chairman of the U.S. House of Representatives Financial Services Committee, is scheduled to discuss on June 15<b>Central Bank Digital Currency Hold Hearing</b>And will hold a hearing on the impact of the cryptocurrency wave on June 30.</p><p>Before the U.S. stock market,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/QD\">Fun shop</a>Results will be released;<b>After U.S. stocks close,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/ORCL\">Oracle bone inscriptions</a>Results will be released.</b></p><p><b>New shares</b>，<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/HKD\">AMTD Digital</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/ACXP\">Acurx Pharmaceuticals, LLC *</a>Will be listed in the United States. AMTD Digital Parent Company<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/HKIB\">AMTD International</a>It is a subsidiary of AMTD Group, which was founded by Li Ka-shing's Cheung Kong Holdings and Hutchison Whampoa.</p><p><b>Wednesday (June 16) Keywords: Angel of the Times listed, press conference on national economic performance in May, Putin and Biden held a meeting</b><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/391716d32411330f06f6322858f4718c\" tg-width=\"620\" tg-height=\"534\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">In terms of new shares,<b>Invisible Braces Faucet<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/06699\">Angel of the Times</a></b>Black market trading started on Tuesday and officially landed on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange on Wednesday, June 16.</p><p>In addition, health plan management software providers<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/CNVY\">Convey Holding Parent, Inc.</a>, Israel Business Insights Platform<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/WKME\">WalkMe Ltd.</a>And Swiss biotech companies<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MOLN\">MOLECULAR PARTNERS AG</a>Will be available in the United States.</p><p>The National Bureau of Statistics stated that according to the unified arrangement of press release work,<b>Press conference on the performance of the national economy in May</b>It will be adjusted from 10: 00 am on Wednesday, June 16th to 15: 00 pm on June 16th. In May, the release times of five reports, including the monthly report on industrial production above designated size, the monthly report on fixed asset investment (excluding farmers), the monthly report on real estate development and sales, the monthly report on total retail sales of consumer goods and the monthly report on energy production, were adjusted accordingly to 15:00 pm on the 16th.</p><p><b>Russian President Vladimir Putin and US President Biden</b>The meeting will be held in Geneva, Switzerland. Putin has said that he does not expect any breakthrough in Russia-US relations from the meeting with Biden, but hopes that the meeting will be conducted in a positive manner.</p><p><b>Thursday (June 17) Keywords: Federal Reserve interest rate decision, Powell held a press conference, monthly residential sales price report in 70 large and medium-sized cities, Shuidi/Adobe financial report, LYEL listing</b><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f4d1dd7356eb9b114aa5ab27aa5708fe\" tg-width=\"620\" tg-height=\"249\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">In the early hours of Thursday,<b>Federal Reserve FOMC announces interest rate decision</b>, policy statements and economic expectations, the market does not expect the Fed to make major moves, but may adjust its inflation forecast. Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell will hold a press conference at 2:30 a.m. Beijing time on Thursday, and Powell is expected to continue to maintain a dovish stance.</p><p>Before the U.S. stock market,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/WDH\">Water droplets</a>Will announce earnings; After U.S. stocks close,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/ADBE\">Adobe</a>Will report earnings.</p><p>What is particularly noteworthy among the new shares is that,<b>Tumor Immunotherapy Companies<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/LYEL\">Lyell Immunopharma, Inc.</a></b>Will be listed in the United States. Dr. Richard Klausner, founder and chairman of Lyell, is the founder of Juno Therapeutics and GRAIL, one of the three giants of cellular immunotherapy, and the head of the National Cancer Institute. As early as August 10, 2020,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/02126\">WuXi Junuo-B</a>Announced the signing of a cooperation agreement with Lyell to develop and commercialize adoptive T cell therapy in China and Southeast Asian countries for the treatment of liver cancer.</p><p><b>Friday (June 18) Keywords: some FTSE Russell indexes are officially adjusted, Youran Animal Husbandry/Wanwu Xinsheng is listed, the second Four Witches Day of the year</b><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/41a6973365e4ff5f52e1f22b26260829\" tg-width=\"620\" tg-height=\"287\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><b>New shares</b>，<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/02171\">Keji Pharmaceutical-B</a>、<b>Leading upstream dairy industry in China<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/09858\">Youran Animal Husbandry</a></b>Listed in Hong Kong;<b><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/RERE\">Everything New</a></b>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/ATAI\">ATAI Life Sciences B.V. *</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/UNCY\">UNICYCIVE THERAPEUTICS, INC.</a>Waiting for listing in the United States. In May 2021, Kuaishou participated in the investment in Wanwu Xinsheng Group, forming a strategic combination with JD.com.</p><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/01810\">Xiaomi Group-W</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/01919\">COSCO SHIPPING Holding</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/00267\">Citic Limited</a>Will formally join<b>FTSE China 50 Index</b>； And<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/00175.HK\">Geely Automobile</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/03333\">China Evergrande</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/09901\">New Oriental-S</a>Eliminated index. The FTSE China A50 Index added Arowana and Zhifei Biotech, while the excluded stocks included Zhonggong Education and Hengli Petrochemical. The change will take effect after the market closes on June 18.</p><p>Friday is<b>On the second Four Witches Day this year,</b>Stock index futures, stock index options, stock options and single stock futures all expire for delivery at the same time today. Simultaneous delivery of these four asset classes may bring violent market volatility, with long and short positions playing against each other. The impact on the stock market is most pronounced during the opening and closing sessions of the day.</p><p>In addition, investors can also pay attention to this week<b>U.S. President Biden's infrastructure plan negotiations and progress in major U.S. antitrust reforms</b>。 After the U.S. stock market closed on Friday, that is, the morning of Saturday, June 19, Beijing time,<b>Russell 1000 and Russell 2000 Indexes to Announce Constituent Updates</b>。</p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Preview: Angel of the Times goes public on Wednesday; Super Central Bank Week debuts</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nPreview: Angel of the Times goes public on Wednesday; Super Central Bank Week debuts\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/102\">\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">老虎资讯综合 </p>\n<p class=\"h-time smaller\">2021-06-14 07:08</p>\n</div>\n</a>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>SUMMARY<b>：</b></p><p>During the Dragon Boat Festival on Monday, Hong Kong stocks and A-shares were closed for one day, while US stocks opened as usual; In terms of new stocks: Times Angel, the leader of invisible braces, went public on Wednesday, LYEL, a tumor immunotherapy company founded by the head of the National Cancer Institute of the United States, went public on Thursday, and Wanwu Xinsheng, backed by JD.com and Kuaishou, went public in the United States on Friday... Financial events: May Press conference on national economic performance, the Federal Reserve, the Bank of Japan, the Swiss National Bank, etc. will announce interest rate decisions, the adjustment of the FTSE China 50 Index will officially take effect, the second Four Witches Day of the year is approaching, and senior US officials will be dispatched: Biden will attend the NATO summit on Monday and meet with Russian President Putin on Wednesday; Powell held a press conference early Thursday morning; In terms of financial reports: Oracle Bone Inscriptions, Shuidi, Adobe, etc. have successively released financial reports.<b>Monday (June 14) Keywords: Hong Kong stocks A shares are closed for one day due to the Dragon Boat Festival; Biden Attends NATO Summit</b><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f3f22545aaa213bcb461898e38543683\" tg-width=\"620\" tg-height=\"344\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">June 14th (Monday) is the Dragon Boat Festival.<b>A-share Connect, Hong Kong stocks and Hong Kong futures will be closed for one day</b>。 U.S. stocks open as usual.</p><p>The North Atlantic Treaty Organization countries will<b>Summit held at NATO headquarters in Brussels</b>U.S. President Joe Biden will discuss with other NATO leaders on NATO's withdrawal from Afghanistan and the future of the 30 NATO countries. According to media reports, the EU hopes to end the tariff dispute between the two places on the occasion of US President Biden's visit to Europe.</p><p><b>Tuesday (June 15) Keywords: U.S. May retail sales month-on-month, Oracle financial report, AMTD Digital IPO</b></p><p><b>Monthly retail sales rate in May</b>The performance of the economy will reflect the performance of economic momentum. Due to the gradual release of the fiscal stimulus effect of the U.S. government, institutions expect retail sales to decline by 0.8% month-on-month last month after being flat month-on-month in April.</p><p>According to foreign media reports, Maxine Waters, Chairman of the U.S. House of Representatives Financial Services Committee, is scheduled to discuss on June 15<b>Central Bank Digital Currency Hold Hearing</b>And will hold a hearing on the impact of the cryptocurrency wave on June 30.</p><p>Before the U.S. stock market,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/QD\">Fun shop</a>Results will be released;<b>After U.S. stocks close,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/ORCL\">Oracle bone inscriptions</a>Results will be released.</b></p><p><b>New shares</b>，<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/HKD\">AMTD Digital</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/ACXP\">Acurx Pharmaceuticals, LLC *</a>Will be listed in the United States. AMTD Digital Parent Company<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/HKIB\">AMTD International</a>It is a subsidiary of AMTD Group, which was founded by Li Ka-shing's Cheung Kong Holdings and Hutchison Whampoa.</p><p><b>Wednesday (June 16) Keywords: Angel of the Times listed, press conference on national economic performance in May, Putin and Biden held a meeting</b><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/391716d32411330f06f6322858f4718c\" tg-width=\"620\" tg-height=\"534\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">In terms of new shares,<b>Invisible Braces Faucet<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/06699\">Angel of the Times</a></b>Black market trading started on Tuesday and officially landed on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange on Wednesday, June 16.</p><p>In addition, health plan management software providers<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/CNVY\">Convey Holding Parent, Inc.</a>, Israel Business Insights Platform<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/WKME\">WalkMe Ltd.</a>And Swiss biotech companies<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MOLN\">MOLECULAR PARTNERS AG</a>Will be available in the United States.</p><p>The National Bureau of Statistics stated that according to the unified arrangement of press release work,<b>Press conference on the performance of the national economy in May</b>It will be adjusted from 10: 00 am on Wednesday, June 16th to 15: 00 pm on June 16th. In May, the release times of five reports, including the monthly report on industrial production above designated size, the monthly report on fixed asset investment (excluding farmers), the monthly report on real estate development and sales, the monthly report on total retail sales of consumer goods and the monthly report on energy production, were adjusted accordingly to 15:00 pm on the 16th.</p><p><b>Russian President Vladimir Putin and US President Biden</b>The meeting will be held in Geneva, Switzerland. Putin has said that he does not expect any breakthrough in Russia-US relations from the meeting with Biden, but hopes that the meeting will be conducted in a positive manner.</p><p><b>Thursday (June 17) Keywords: Federal Reserve interest rate decision, Powell held a press conference, monthly residential sales price report in 70 large and medium-sized cities, Shuidi/Adobe financial report, LYEL listing</b><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f4d1dd7356eb9b114aa5ab27aa5708fe\" tg-width=\"620\" tg-height=\"249\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">In the early hours of Thursday,<b>Federal Reserve FOMC announces interest rate decision</b>, policy statements and economic expectations, the market does not expect the Fed to make major moves, but may adjust its inflation forecast. Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell will hold a press conference at 2:30 a.m. Beijing time on Thursday, and Powell is expected to continue to maintain a dovish stance.</p><p>Before the U.S. stock market,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/WDH\">Water droplets</a>Will announce earnings; After U.S. stocks close,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/ADBE\">Adobe</a>Will report earnings.</p><p>What is particularly noteworthy among the new shares is that,<b>Tumor Immunotherapy Companies<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/LYEL\">Lyell Immunopharma, Inc.</a></b>Will be listed in the United States. Dr. Richard Klausner, founder and chairman of Lyell, is the founder of Juno Therapeutics and GRAIL, one of the three giants of cellular immunotherapy, and the head of the National Cancer Institute. As early as August 10, 2020,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/02126\">WuXi Junuo-B</a>Announced the signing of a cooperation agreement with Lyell to develop and commercialize adoptive T cell therapy in China and Southeast Asian countries for the treatment of liver cancer.</p><p><b>Friday (June 18) Keywords: some FTSE Russell indexes are officially adjusted, Youran Animal Husbandry/Wanwu Xinsheng is listed, the second Four Witches Day of the year</b><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/41a6973365e4ff5f52e1f22b26260829\" tg-width=\"620\" tg-height=\"287\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><b>New shares</b>，<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/02171\">Keji Pharmaceutical-B</a>、<b>Leading upstream dairy industry in China<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/09858\">Youran Animal Husbandry</a></b>Listed in Hong Kong;<b><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/RERE\">Everything New</a></b>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/ATAI\">ATAI Life Sciences B.V. *</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/UNCY\">UNICYCIVE THERAPEUTICS, INC.</a>Waiting for listing in the United States. In May 2021, Kuaishou participated in the investment in Wanwu Xinsheng Group, forming a strategic combination with JD.com.</p><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/01810\">Xiaomi Group-W</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/01919\">COSCO SHIPPING Holding</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/00267\">Citic Limited</a>Will formally join<b>FTSE China 50 Index</b>； And<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/00175.HK\">Geely Automobile</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/03333\">China Evergrande</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/09901\">New Oriental-S</a>Eliminated index. The FTSE China A50 Index added Arowana and Zhifei Biotech, while the excluded stocks included Zhonggong Education and Hengli Petrochemical. The change will take effect after the market closes on June 18.</p><p>Friday is<b>On the second Four Witches Day this year,</b>Stock index futures, stock index options, stock options and single stock futures all expire for delivery at the same time today. Simultaneous delivery of these four asset classes may bring violent market volatility, with long and short positions playing against each other. The impact on the stock market is most pronounced during the opening and closing sessions of the day.</p><p>In addition, investors can also pay attention to this week<b>U.S. President Biden's infrastructure plan negotiations and progress in major U.S. antitrust reforms</b>。 After the U.S. stock market closed on Friday, that is, the morning of Saturday, June 19, Beijing time,<b>Russell 1000 and Russell 2000 Indexes to Announce Constituent Updates</b>。</p>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f85a7d6606dc76bae2a70c177e74aa88","relate_stocks":{},"is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1184301597","content_text":"摘要：\n\n 周一端午节，港股、A股休市一天，美股照常开市；\n\n\n 新股方面：隐形牙套龙头时代天使周三上市、美国国家癌症研究所负责人创办的肿瘤免疫治疗公司LYEL周四上市、背靠京东和快手的万物新生周五赴美上市……\n\n\n 财经事件方面：5月份国民经济运行情况新闻发布会，美联储、日本央行、瑞士央行等将公布利率决议，富时中国50指数调整将正式生效，年内第二个四巫日将至，美国高官出动：拜登周一参加北约峰会，周三与俄罗斯总统普京会晤；鲍威尔周四凌晨召开新闻发布会；\n\n\n 财报方面：甲骨文、水滴、Adobe等陆续发布财报。\n\n周一(6月14日)关键词：港股A股因端午节休市一天；拜登参加北约峰会6月14日（周一）为端午节，A股通、港股及港期休市一天。美股照常开市。\n北大西洋公约组织国家将在布鲁塞尔北约总部举行峰会，美国总统拜登将与北约其它国家领导人就北约从阿富汗撤军，以及北约30国的前途展开讨论。据媒体报道，欧盟希望借着美国总统拜登访欧之际结束两地关税之争。\n周二(6月15日)关键词：美国5月零售销售环比、甲骨文财报、尚乘数科IPO\n5月零售销售月率的表现将反映经济动能的表现情况，由于美国政府财政刺激效应逐步释放，在4月环比持平后，机构预计上月零售销售将出现环比0.8%的下降。\n据外媒报道，美国众议院金融服务委员会主席Maxine Waters定于6月15日就央行数字货币举行听证会，并将于6月30日就加密货币浪潮的影响举行听证会。\n美股盘前，趣店将发布业绩；美股盘后，甲骨文将发布业绩。\n新股方面，尚乘数科、Acurx Pharmaceuticals, LLC*将在美上市。尚乘数科母公司尚乘国际是尚乘集团旗下，尚乘集团是由李嘉诚的长江实业集团和和记黄埔创立。\n周三(6月16日)关键词：时代天使上市、5月份国民经济运行情况新闻发布会、普京拜登举行会晤新股方面，隐形牙套龙头时代天使于周二开启暗盘交易，在周三6月16日正式登陆港交所。\n此外，健康计划管理软件提供商Convey Holding Parent, Inc.、以色列商业洞察平台WalkMe Ltd.以及瑞士生物技术公司MOLECULAR PARTNERS AG将在美国上市。\n国家统计局表示，根据新闻发布工作统一安排，5月份国民经济运行情况新闻发布会由原计划的6月16日（周三）上午10时调整为6月16日下午15时举行。5月份规模以上工业生产月度报告、固定资产投资（不含农户）月度报告、房地产开发和销售情况月度报告、社会消费品零售总额月度报告以及能源生产情况月度报告等五个报告的发布时间相应调整为16日下午15时。\n俄罗斯总统普京与美国总统拜登将于瑞士日内瓦举行会晤。普京曾表示，不期待与拜登的会晤能对俄美关系有任何突破，但希望会晤以积极方式进行。\n周四(6月17日)关键词：美联储利率决议、鲍威尔召开新闻发布会、70个大中城市住宅销售价格月报、水滴/Adobe 财报、LYEL上市周四凌晨，美联储FOMC公布利率决议、政策声明及经济预期，市场预计美联储不会有大动作，但可能会调整对通胀的预估。美联储主席鲍威尔将在北京时间周四凌晨2点半召开新闻发布会，预计鲍威尔将继续维持鸽派立场。\n美股盘前，水滴将公布财报；美股盘后，Adobe将公布财报。\n新股中尤为值得注意的是，肿瘤免疫治疗公司Lyell Immunopharma, Inc.将在美上市。Lyell创始人、董事长Richard Klausner博士是细胞免疫治疗三巨头之一Juno Therapeutics和GRAIL公司的创始人，也是美国国家癌症研究所的负责人。早在2020年8月10日，药明巨诺-B宣布与Lyell签订合作协议，在中国及东南亚国家开发和商业化过继性T细胞疗法，用于肝癌治疗。\n周五(6月18日)关键词：富时罗素部分指数正式调整、优然牧业/万物新生上市、年内第二个四巫日新股方面，科济药业-B、中国乳业上游龙头优然牧业在港上市；万物新生、ATAI Life Sciences B.V.*、UNICYCIVE THERAPEUTICS, INC.等在美上市。在2021年5月，快手参投万物新生集团，与京东形成战略组合。\n小米集团-W、中远海控、中信股份将正式加入富时中国50指数；而吉利汽车、中国恒大、新东方-S被剔除指数。富时中国A50指数加入金龙鱼和智飞生物，被剔除的股票则有中公教育和恒力石化。该变更将于6月18日收盘后生效。\n周五是本年第二个四巫日，股指期货、股指期权、股票期权以及单一股票期货，都在今天同一时间到期交割。这四种资产类别同时交割有可能会带来剧烈的市场波动，多头空头相互博弈。对股市的影响在当天开盘和收盘的时段最为明显。\n此外，投资者本周内还可留意美国总统拜登的基建计划谈判和美国重大反垄断改革的进展。周五美股盘后即北京时间周六6月19日早上，罗素1000和罗素2000指数将宣布成份股更新。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2404,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":668608163,"gmtCreate":1664583815354,"gmtModify":1676537479500,"author":{"id":"3548268462187923","authorId":"3548268462187923","name":"适时做T","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/513358897b9c93a557b2aa918aa95006","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3548268462187923","authorIdStr":"3548268462187923"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"…","listText":"…","text":"…","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/668608163","repostId":"1132038640","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1132038640","kind":"news","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"为用户提供金融资讯、行情、数据，旨在帮助投资者理解世界，做投资决策。","home_visible":1,"media_name":"老虎资讯综合","id":"102","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba"},"pubTimestamp":1663840864,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1132038640?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2022-09-22 18:01","market":"hk","language":"zh","title":"Reminder: National Day, Double Ninth Festival Hong Kong stocks and A-share market closure arrangements","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1132038640","media":"老虎资讯综合","summary":"中国国庆节与重阳节即将到来，港股和A股市场将受到影响。","content":"<p><html><head></head><body>Dear investors,</p><p>With the arrival of China's National Day and Double Ninth Festival, trading activities in Hong Kong market and A-share market will be affected. Please keep an eye on the stock market closing hours and schedule your investment plans in advance. The specific closing arrangements are as follows:</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/34859bcd3aa96e09017a7d9bf33803b9\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"1080\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>The Hong Kong market will be closed on Tuesday, October 4, 2022 for the Double Ninth Festival holiday.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/98d9f458d67a4264998960febec22402\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"1080\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><b>Hong Kong stocks:</b></p><p>The market is closed on Tuesday, October 4. The market will open as usual from October 5th (Wednesday).</p><p><b>A shares:</b></p><p>Closed from Monday, October 3 to Friday, October 7. The market will open as usual from October 10th (Monday).</p><p><b>Shanghai Stock Connect and Shenzhen Stock Connect:</b></p><p>Closed Monday, October 3-Friday, October 7. It will be open as usual from October 10th (Monday).</p><p><b>Hong Kong Stock Connect:</b></p><p>Closed Thursday, September 29-Friday, October 7. It will be open as usual from October 10th (Monday).</p><p><b>U.S. stocks, Australian stocks and Singapore stock markets traded as usual.</b></p><p></body></html></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Reminder: National Day, Double Ninth Festival Hong Kong stocks and A-share market closure arrangements</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nReminder: National Day, Double Ninth Festival Hong Kong stocks and A-share market closure arrangements\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/102\">\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">老虎资讯综合 </p>\n<p class=\"h-time smaller\">2022-09-22 18:01</p>\n</div>\n</a>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><html><head></head><body>Dear investors,</p><p>With the arrival of China's National Day and Double Ninth Festival, trading activities in Hong Kong market and A-share market will be affected. Please keep an eye on the stock market closing hours and schedule your investment plans in advance. The specific closing arrangements are as follows:</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/34859bcd3aa96e09017a7d9bf33803b9\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"1080\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>The Hong Kong market will be closed on Tuesday, October 4, 2022 for the Double Ninth Festival holiday.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/98d9f458d67a4264998960febec22402\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"1080\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><b>Hong Kong stocks:</b></p><p>The market is closed on Tuesday, October 4. The market will open as usual from October 5th (Wednesday).</p><p><b>A shares:</b></p><p>Closed from Monday, October 3 to Friday, October 7. The market will open as usual from October 10th (Monday).</p><p><b>Shanghai Stock Connect and Shenzhen Stock Connect:</b></p><p>Closed Monday, October 3-Friday, October 7. It will be open as usual from October 10th (Monday).</p><p><b>Hong Kong Stock Connect:</b></p><p>Closed Thursday, September 29-Friday, October 7. It will be open as usual from October 10th (Monday).</p><p><b>U.S. stocks, Australian stocks and Singapore stock markets traded as usual.</b></p><p></body></html></p>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5d6748d2cab65706b3d0ac543064a3bd","relate_stocks":{"000001.SH":"上证指数","HSI":"恒生指数"},"source_url":"","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1132038640","content_text":"尊敬的投资者：中国国庆节与重阳节到来，香港市场和A股市场的交易活动将受到影响。请留意股市休市时间，并提前安排好您的投资计划。具体休市安排如下：香港市场将于2022年10月4日（星期二）因重阳节假期休市。港股：10月4日（周二）休市。10月5日（周三）起照常开市。A股：10月3日（周一）至10月7日（周五）休市。10月10日（周一）起照常开市。沪股通和深股通：10月3日（周一）至10月7日（周五）关闭。10月10日（周一）起照常开通。港股通：9月29日（周四）至10月7日（周五）关闭。10月10日（周一）起照常开通。美股、澳股、新加坡股市照常交易。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"000001.SH":0.9,"HSI":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":726,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":151229443,"gmtCreate":1625095515782,"gmtModify":1703735889976,"author":{"id":"3548268462187923","authorId":"3548268462187923","name":"适时做T","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/513358897b9c93a557b2aa918aa95006","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3548268462187923","authorIdStr":"3548268462187923"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"…","listText":"…","text":"…","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/151229443","repostId":"2147275816","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"2147275816","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1625057765,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/2147275816?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2021-06-30 20:56","market":"hk","language":"zh","title":"Catching the top, plummeting, confused... Stock market inventory in the first half of 2021","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2147275816","media":"格隆汇","summary":"时间如梭，不知不觉，再过几个小时，今年上半年的时光就这么交待了。\n虽说金钱永不眠，资本多无情，但回顾上半年全球资本市场的疯狂与荒诞，还是不免让人心生感慨。\n辛辛苦苦大半年，你赚到了吗？\n本文和你一起总","content":"<p>Time flies, and unconsciously, in a few hours, the first half of this year will be confessed.</p><p>Although money never sleeps and capital is ruthless, looking back at the madness and absurdity of the global capital market in the first half of the year, it still makes people feel emotional.</p><p><b>After half a year's hard work, have you made any money?</b></p><p>This article will summarize it with you, take a look at the ups and downs of global assets in the first half of the year, look for the context of market capital development, and see if we can get a glimpse of the investment direction in the second half of the year.</p><p><h3><b>1</b></h3><h3><b>Review of the first half of the year: the feast and hidden worries of global assets</b></h3>Although there is still the final battle of the first half of the year in the United States tonight, the asset price fluctuation ranking battle has basically been settled.</p><p><b>In fact, in the first half of the year, commodities such as crude oil and non-ferrous metals were the strongest in the performance of major global assets, followed by stock markets of various countries, but this is also the second best record for the overall performance of global stock markets since 1998.</b></p><p>Crude oil can be regarded as enjoying the dividend of epidemic recovery and surging after life. If the current oil price is compared with previous years, the price has not actually risen, but the stock market has indeed hit record highs in many countries, especially Markets such as Vietnam, South Korea, and India, which have been deeply hit by the epidemic this year, even experienced the fiercest gains.</p><p><b>Behind this, the global crazy water release is indispensable.</b></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f7bd29c65f0d6ab28954e4a08d07bfb7\" tg-width=\"731\" tg-height=\"1898\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><b>In terms of US stocks,</b>The three major indexes rose by about 13%. There are several trends worth noting:</p><p><b>First, the U.S. economic revitalization plan has indeed achieved results under the influence of massive water releases.</b>The unilateral trend of the S&P 500 index and the Dow Jones index is obviously stable and stronger than that of the Nasdaq;</p><p><b>Second, under the asset bubble, in fact, many central market capitalization stocks in several major markets performed very strongly.</b>According to wind, the monthly turnover of the three major markets in the United States continued to soar from less than US $5 trillion in 2019 to over US $10 trillion at the beginning of this year, doubling. Although this doesn't mean there is a bubble, it can mean<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/QC7.SI\">the whole people</a>The phenomenon of stock trading is very hot, and investors are highly motivated to participate.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7e19bef62656c02b503a729b98984078\" tg-width=\"987\" tg-height=\"665\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><b>Third, the valuation of the leading technology leaders has been fired to a historically high position, and many of them have increased by more than 30% year-on-year, which means the taste of bubbles to a certain extent.</b></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/52876d447552d21c688014f3ba93405a\" tg-width=\"975\" tg-height=\"715\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><b>With<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AAPL\">Apple</a>For example,</b>In the past 10 years, Apple's valuation has fluctuated around about 20 times on average, but since last year, it has broken through its own ceiling and abruptly raised a whole level. If it is a new incremental business with higher growth from then on, it can enjoy a higher valuation treatment than before, it is not a bad idea. However, judging from its business performance in the past two years and the various anti-monopoly sanctions it has encountered one after another, this assumption is not true.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d0e6ec77088c81a003104228c03f3193\" tg-width=\"980\" tg-height=\"512\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>This can be seen from the financial report data in recent years, and Apple's performance growth even has a downward trend. The main reason for its soaring valuation in the past two years may rely more on the continuous massive release of water from the United States and its own maintenance of stock price through continuous large-scale repurchases.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/338e62968a9609dad3c2742847ee9007\" tg-width=\"984\" tg-height=\"559\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>In fact, other FAAMGs and other more large companies have continuously repurchased stocks in large amounts in the past two years, which has largely become an important force in maintaining stock prices.</p><p>However, in the first half of the year, Nasdaq and the New York Stock Exchange surpassed the Hong Kong Stock Exchange to become the two largest IPO financing exchanges in the world, with cumulative listing financing exceeding US $575.7 billion. U.S. stocks are still the hottest center of gravity in the world.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6110967c03aec012e0cf27f7c526d1d5\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"723\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><b>A-shares</b>If a few idioms are used to describe the overall performance of the first half of the year, it will be \"ups and downs, chicken feathers everywhere, and demons dancing wildly\". The super roller coaster market guidance in the first half of the year is still vivid in my mind. The final performance is: the Shanghai Composite Index and Shenzhen Component Index only rose by 3.45% and 4.8%, far less than the 14% and 17.3% of the Science and Technology Innovation Board and the Growth Enterprise Market.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a0104188115a595909e090ae9f6802ef\" tg-width=\"979\" tg-height=\"462\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><b>On the plate, the weight is low, the growth is a demon, and the style characteristics of the theme speculation are fully displayed</b>, driven by crude oil and non-ferrous commodities, the entire traditional construction cycle industry has the strongest growth, followed by the continued surge in the concept of green new energy, and the new three idiots of biomedicine, consumption, and technology. Others are short-term themes that are hot for only three days, and they often end up in chicken feathers.</p><p>But some people laughed, while others cried. Due to changes in macro policies and market preferences, non-bank finance and home appliances became the bleakest sectors in the first half of the year, among which the leaders in their respective industries collapsed.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/bc79e7ae4f9f5effaab99e0e7c985164\" tg-width=\"790\" tg-height=\"1772\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>Looking back at the A-share market in the first half of the year, there are actually several unshakable main lines that have reached a consensus in the chaotic speculation of funds taking turns to sing operas.<b>New energy (automobiles, photovoltaics), biomedicine (innovative drugs, medical beauty), new technology (Hongmeng,) high-end consumption (liquor, duty-free)</b>Etc., accumulated a huge amount of capital, and also put<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/300750\">Ningde era</a>Pushed to a trillion-dollar market value,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/002594\">BYD</a>Now it has exceeded a record high of 700 billion.</p><p>In the first half of the year, A-share listing financing was accelerating, with a total of 284 listings, doubling simultaneously, raising funds of 212.7 billion yuan, an increase of more than half.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/fdc22644e25b836c2c78844af7aad447\" tg-width=\"711\" tg-height=\"516\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>Overall, the performance of A-shares in the first half of the year is still acceptable. At least the GEM has formed a bull market situation, and market confidence has gradually turned from worry to positive.</p><p><b>In terms of Hong Kong stocks, although the Hong Kong stock market continued to have super giant companies listed in Hong Kong in the first half of the year, which attracted massive incremental funds, the overall performance was still worse than that of A shares.</b>The Hang Seng Index is only 6%, and the state-owned enterprise index where domestic stocks are located is even negative.</p><p>There are actually several main reasons behind the weak trend of Hong Kong stocks.<b>Including the repeated impact of the epidemic, which has led to the cooling of the financial real estate consumer industry, the state's anti-monopoly crackdown on Internet giants as a big weight, and the high valuation premium of listed stocks returning to Hong Kong.</b></p><p>This can be reflected in the trend of the Hang Seng New Economy Index, which has high hopes from the capital market. After a roller coaster market,<b>The index is still digesting new logical changes, and these giants appear to have seriously high valuations.</b></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/53938955fe681bc0076dc9d5d8e3d702\" tg-width=\"914\" tg-height=\"701\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>Hong Kong stocks as<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/00170\">China Capital</a>One of the important markets for overseas transit, the IPO market has been extremely hot. Although it was upstaged by US stocks this year, it actually performed very well. In the first half of the year, a total of 46 companies were newly listed, raising HK $213.2 billion, a year-on-year increase of 130%.<b>These include Kuaishou, JD.com,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BIDU\">Baidu</a>, Bilibili, Ctrip,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/ATHM\">Car Home</a>Wait for star companies</b>。</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ae59433c0ab8709950d884d18a0f906d\" tg-width=\"946\" tg-height=\"510\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>In terms of commodities, last year's epidemic had an impact on the upstream supply side, coupled with the strong recovery of the downstream demand side this year, and the agricultural output crisis, especially in the context of the global flood release, crude oil energy chemicals, copper, aluminum and iron,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/000061\">Agricultural products</a>Waiting for the joint resonance, global commodities are like wild horses, soaring.</p><p><b>Up to now, the major factors affecting commodities have not seen significant changes. Under the current serious imbalance between supply and demand, it is easy to rise but difficult to fall.</b></p><p>In addition, I have to talk about cryptocurrency. In this round of super roller coaster, before it fell, under the back and forth of Musk, the godfather of currency speculation, the Bitcoin once doubled, and the altcoin speculation was even more completely crazy, with increases of dozens or even hundreds of times. Dogecoin 400 times and shit coins 20,000 times, which continued to arouse the attention of the whole people and the anxiety of currency people, and finally ushered in strict bans from various countries. Overnight, the wealth of countless accounts with leveraged currency speculation was wiped out.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b1d822121fdb50a88085adeae51e7a15\" tg-width=\"898\" tg-height=\"568\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>Cryptocurrency can be said to be an abnormal market overflowed by the flood of global liquidity. In just a few months, it has been praised as the core asset of the future to the current speculation logic that has been smashed to pieces, which is embarrassing!</p><p>Summarizing the performance of global assets in the first half of the year, it can be seen that the continuous release of global water is a common factor. Even in the context of the epidemic impacting economic operations and most enterprises facing downward pressure on operating performance, the asset price side can still be boosted by strengthening future expectations by massive release of water.. This is also the reason why global assets have risen sharply from the economy since last year.</p><p><h3><b>2</b></h3><h3><b>Outlook for the second half of the year: Where are the investment opportunities?</b></h3>The underlying factors affecting asset price fluctuations are nothing more than<b>Liquidity, supply and demand, economy, policy</b>Aspects.</p><p>In the first half of the year, except for a few countries in the world, the overall economy took the repair route, which laid the foundation for the strengthening of the capital market.</p><p>But there are also many problems caused by water release, including<b>Persistently high inflation, structural overheating of the economy, increasing imbalance between supply and demand, and soaring asset price bubbles.</b></p><p>At present, the above problems facing the United States are particularly prominent. Regardless of the price increase of industrial supplies, real estate, consumer goods, etc., they are constantly creating new heights. The CPI in the United States soared to 5% in May, which was the level before the financial crisis broke out that year.</p><p>The U.S. government debt ratio has reached a 150-year high, and Biden is still increasing the volume by trillions, constantly testing the bottom line of the market.</p><p>Up to now, tightening liquidity to prevent overheating of the economic structure and stabilize inflation expectations has become a consideration that the United States has to face, and it has gradually become the consensus expectation of the global market.</p><p><b>But once it is really tightened, the logic of the global capital market will undergo a fundamental turn, especially at the moment when the asset bubble is obvious, the risk impact is no less than the \"king explosion\".</b></p><p>For China, there are still great economic and market worries in the second half of the year.</p><p>In the past year, China's economy has been able to perform well in the epidemic, mainly due to the growth of exports. When most countries in the world, especially Europe and the United States, the main consumer markets, were deeply plagued by the epidemic and their production and life stagnated, China strongly controlled the epidemic, resumed work and production as soon as possible, and coupled with its existing manufacturing capacity, exported products to the world, and reaped the dividends of this wave of global epidemic.</p><p><b>But now, the vaccination rate in Europe and the United States is getting higher and higher, many countries and regions have returned to normal production and life, and the demand for Chinese exports will gradually weaken. There is little chance that they want to continue to eat foreign trade dividends.</b></p><p>The other two growth drivers-investment and consumption, can't give much hope. The three major blocks of investment, the manufacturing industry, is difficult to expand, and the infrastructure has been done well. In recent months, the operating rates of some major industrial sectors have shown signs of falling back.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ee8a0552d2f6969db76cedffbe1e0fc3\" tg-width=\"905\" tg-height=\"632\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>The trend of China's PMI data and social financing data in recent months also clearly shows a downward trend.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/00d3462d319f9ea67b7652a6679c678d\" tg-width=\"915\" tg-height=\"632\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>Although real estate can be used as a short-term stimulus, it will go back to the old road of water stimulation. Moreover, there is actually not much room for operation in domestic housing prices. In addition, the central government has repeatedly reiterated that \"housing is for living, not for speculation\". The road is basically blocked.</p><p>Can you hope for consumption? That depends on<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/603883\">Common people</a>How much money is left in the pocket? Looking at the current residents' willingness to spend, it seems that it is not very optimistic. Even though the country has done a lot of things, such as controlling housing prices, killing off-campus education, and liberalizing the third child, from the perspective of consumption growth, it is showing a downward trend.</p><p><b>Therefore, the economic fundamentals in the second half of the year are still under pressure, and the stock market, as a barometer of the economy, will naturally be under pressure.</b>Although theoretically, if the state adjusts liquidity, the pressure on the stock market can be alleviated, the problem is that this is unknown, not to mention the possible water collection behavior of the Federal Reserve.</p><p><b>Therefore, don't expect too much from the market in the second half of the year, especially for U.S. stocks. No one can tell when rate hike, the gray rhinoceros, will come. The same goes for other commodity assets, not to mention cryptocurrencies.</b></p><p><b>But for A-shares, it is not without opportunities.</b></p><p>Funds always need to find a way out. When macro fundamentals are under pressure, they will tend to look for structural opportunities.</p><p>Although popular main lines such as photovoltaics, carbon neutrality, new energy vehicles (smart cars), semiconductors, biomedicine, big data, 5G communication applications, and new consumption have been generally hyped this year,<b>But in the long run, these are still sectors with certainty of growth, and they are also the favorite places for funds. Their future trend will still be a spiral upward trend. If they can survive, every callback may be an opportunity to get on the bus..</b></p><p>Another trend is that the current fund size has exceeded 22 trillion yuan, and it has increasingly become an important influencing force in A shares.<b>According to statistics, as of June, the scale of funds available to buy A shares is still about 832.1 billion yuan, which is enough to set off huge waves for A shares.</b></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8e50a0054df2fa81074420fc304a4a7a\" tg-width=\"950\" tg-height=\"581\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>In view of the fact that the past performance of funds in the past two years has generally been significantly stronger than the market, it is also a tricky way to make money by simply buying money to excellent fund managers and letting professionals do professional things. To a large extent, it can help us save the anxiety of not knowing what to invest in.</p><p><h3><b>3</b></h3><h3><b>epilogue</b></h3>Recently, many institutions have also released strategic reports for the second half of the year, which are generally similar to the ideas of this article, so the market consensus is still very strong.</p><p>Investment often tests people's vision and determination when the direction is unclear. There will still be big ups and downs in the market in the second half of the year. Many people may disappear after floating in this fluctuation, but there will also be people who seize the opportunity to get on the right car in every callback.</p><p>In the first half of the year, U.S. stocks continued to hit new highs, while A-shares and Hong Kong stocks were still stumbling, and even the direction was not completely out, which really made everyone feel uncomfortable.</p><p>I hope that what I didn't earn in the first half of the year can be earned back in the second half of the year.</p>","source":"stock_gelonghui","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Catching the top, plummeting, confused... Stock market inventory in the first half of 2021</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nCatching the top, plummeting, confused... Stock market inventory in the first half of 2021\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">格隆汇</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-06-30 20:56</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>Time flies, and unconsciously, in a few hours, the first half of this year will be confessed.</p><p>Although money never sleeps and capital is ruthless, looking back at the madness and absurdity of the global capital market in the first half of the year, it still makes people feel emotional.</p><p><b>After half a year's hard work, have you made any money?</b></p><p>This article will summarize it with you, take a look at the ups and downs of global assets in the first half of the year, look for the context of market capital development, and see if we can get a glimpse of the investment direction in the second half of the year.</p><p><h3><b>1</b></h3><h3><b>Review of the first half of the year: the feast and hidden worries of global assets</b></h3>Although there is still the final battle of the first half of the year in the United States tonight, the asset price fluctuation ranking battle has basically been settled.</p><p><b>In fact, in the first half of the year, commodities such as crude oil and non-ferrous metals were the strongest in the performance of major global assets, followed by stock markets of various countries, but this is also the second best record for the overall performance of global stock markets since 1998.</b></p><p>Crude oil can be regarded as enjoying the dividend of epidemic recovery and surging after life. If the current oil price is compared with previous years, the price has not actually risen, but the stock market has indeed hit record highs in many countries, especially Markets such as Vietnam, South Korea, and India, which have been deeply hit by the epidemic this year, even experienced the fiercest gains.</p><p><b>Behind this, the global crazy water release is indispensable.</b></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f7bd29c65f0d6ab28954e4a08d07bfb7\" tg-width=\"731\" tg-height=\"1898\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><b>In terms of US stocks,</b>The three major indexes rose by about 13%. There are several trends worth noting:</p><p><b>First, the U.S. economic revitalization plan has indeed achieved results under the influence of massive water releases.</b>The unilateral trend of the S&P 500 index and the Dow Jones index is obviously stable and stronger than that of the Nasdaq;</p><p><b>Second, under the asset bubble, in fact, many central market capitalization stocks in several major markets performed very strongly.</b>According to wind, the monthly turnover of the three major markets in the United States continued to soar from less than US $5 trillion in 2019 to over US $10 trillion at the beginning of this year, doubling. Although this doesn't mean there is a bubble, it can mean<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/QC7.SI\">the whole people</a>The phenomenon of stock trading is very hot, and investors are highly motivated to participate.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7e19bef62656c02b503a729b98984078\" tg-width=\"987\" tg-height=\"665\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><b>Third, the valuation of the leading technology leaders has been fired to a historically high position, and many of them have increased by more than 30% year-on-year, which means the taste of bubbles to a certain extent.</b></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/52876d447552d21c688014f3ba93405a\" tg-width=\"975\" tg-height=\"715\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><b>With<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AAPL\">Apple</a>For example,</b>In the past 10 years, Apple's valuation has fluctuated around about 20 times on average, but since last year, it has broken through its own ceiling and abruptly raised a whole level. If it is a new incremental business with higher growth from then on, it can enjoy a higher valuation treatment than before, it is not a bad idea. However, judging from its business performance in the past two years and the various anti-monopoly sanctions it has encountered one after another, this assumption is not true.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d0e6ec77088c81a003104228c03f3193\" tg-width=\"980\" tg-height=\"512\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>This can be seen from the financial report data in recent years, and Apple's performance growth even has a downward trend. The main reason for its soaring valuation in the past two years may rely more on the continuous massive release of water from the United States and its own maintenance of stock price through continuous large-scale repurchases.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/338e62968a9609dad3c2742847ee9007\" tg-width=\"984\" tg-height=\"559\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>In fact, other FAAMGs and other more large companies have continuously repurchased stocks in large amounts in the past two years, which has largely become an important force in maintaining stock prices.</p><p>However, in the first half of the year, Nasdaq and the New York Stock Exchange surpassed the Hong Kong Stock Exchange to become the two largest IPO financing exchanges in the world, with cumulative listing financing exceeding US $575.7 billion. U.S. stocks are still the hottest center of gravity in the world.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6110967c03aec012e0cf27f7c526d1d5\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"723\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><b>A-shares</b>If a few idioms are used to describe the overall performance of the first half of the year, it will be \"ups and downs, chicken feathers everywhere, and demons dancing wildly\". The super roller coaster market guidance in the first half of the year is still vivid in my mind. The final performance is: the Shanghai Composite Index and Shenzhen Component Index only rose by 3.45% and 4.8%, far less than the 14% and 17.3% of the Science and Technology Innovation Board and the Growth Enterprise Market.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a0104188115a595909e090ae9f6802ef\" tg-width=\"979\" tg-height=\"462\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><b>On the plate, the weight is low, the growth is a demon, and the style characteristics of the theme speculation are fully displayed</b>, driven by crude oil and non-ferrous commodities, the entire traditional construction cycle industry has the strongest growth, followed by the continued surge in the concept of green new energy, and the new three idiots of biomedicine, consumption, and technology. Others are short-term themes that are hot for only three days, and they often end up in chicken feathers.</p><p>But some people laughed, while others cried. Due to changes in macro policies and market preferences, non-bank finance and home appliances became the bleakest sectors in the first half of the year, among which the leaders in their respective industries collapsed.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/bc79e7ae4f9f5effaab99e0e7c985164\" tg-width=\"790\" tg-height=\"1772\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>Looking back at the A-share market in the first half of the year, there are actually several unshakable main lines that have reached a consensus in the chaotic speculation of funds taking turns to sing operas.<b>New energy (automobiles, photovoltaics), biomedicine (innovative drugs, medical beauty), new technology (Hongmeng,) high-end consumption (liquor, duty-free)</b>Etc., accumulated a huge amount of capital, and also put<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/300750\">Ningde era</a>Pushed to a trillion-dollar market value,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/002594\">BYD</a>Now it has exceeded a record high of 700 billion.</p><p>In the first half of the year, A-share listing financing was accelerating, with a total of 284 listings, doubling simultaneously, raising funds of 212.7 billion yuan, an increase of more than half.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/fdc22644e25b836c2c78844af7aad447\" tg-width=\"711\" tg-height=\"516\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>Overall, the performance of A-shares in the first half of the year is still acceptable. At least the GEM has formed a bull market situation, and market confidence has gradually turned from worry to positive.</p><p><b>In terms of Hong Kong stocks, although the Hong Kong stock market continued to have super giant companies listed in Hong Kong in the first half of the year, which attracted massive incremental funds, the overall performance was still worse than that of A shares.</b>The Hang Seng Index is only 6%, and the state-owned enterprise index where domestic stocks are located is even negative.</p><p>There are actually several main reasons behind the weak trend of Hong Kong stocks.<b>Including the repeated impact of the epidemic, which has led to the cooling of the financial real estate consumer industry, the state's anti-monopoly crackdown on Internet giants as a big weight, and the high valuation premium of listed stocks returning to Hong Kong.</b></p><p>This can be reflected in the trend of the Hang Seng New Economy Index, which has high hopes from the capital market. After a roller coaster market,<b>The index is still digesting new logical changes, and these giants appear to have seriously high valuations.</b></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/53938955fe681bc0076dc9d5d8e3d702\" tg-width=\"914\" tg-height=\"701\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>Hong Kong stocks as<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/00170\">China Capital</a>One of the important markets for overseas transit, the IPO market has been extremely hot. Although it was upstaged by US stocks this year, it actually performed very well. In the first half of the year, a total of 46 companies were newly listed, raising HK $213.2 billion, a year-on-year increase of 130%.<b>These include Kuaishou, JD.com,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BIDU\">Baidu</a>, Bilibili, Ctrip,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/ATHM\">Car Home</a>Wait for star companies</b>。</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ae59433c0ab8709950d884d18a0f906d\" tg-width=\"946\" tg-height=\"510\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>In terms of commodities, last year's epidemic had an impact on the upstream supply side, coupled with the strong recovery of the downstream demand side this year, and the agricultural output crisis, especially in the context of the global flood release, crude oil energy chemicals, copper, aluminum and iron,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/000061\">Agricultural products</a>Waiting for the joint resonance, global commodities are like wild horses, soaring.</p><p><b>Up to now, the major factors affecting commodities have not seen significant changes. Under the current serious imbalance between supply and demand, it is easy to rise but difficult to fall.</b></p><p>In addition, I have to talk about cryptocurrency. In this round of super roller coaster, before it fell, under the back and forth of Musk, the godfather of currency speculation, the Bitcoin once doubled, and the altcoin speculation was even more completely crazy, with increases of dozens or even hundreds of times. Dogecoin 400 times and shit coins 20,000 times, which continued to arouse the attention of the whole people and the anxiety of currency people, and finally ushered in strict bans from various countries. Overnight, the wealth of countless accounts with leveraged currency speculation was wiped out.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b1d822121fdb50a88085adeae51e7a15\" tg-width=\"898\" tg-height=\"568\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>Cryptocurrency can be said to be an abnormal market overflowed by the flood of global liquidity. In just a few months, it has been praised as the core asset of the future to the current speculation logic that has been smashed to pieces, which is embarrassing!</p><p>Summarizing the performance of global assets in the first half of the year, it can be seen that the continuous release of global water is a common factor. Even in the context of the epidemic impacting economic operations and most enterprises facing downward pressure on operating performance, the asset price side can still be boosted by strengthening future expectations by massive release of water.. This is also the reason why global assets have risen sharply from the economy since last year.</p><p><h3><b>2</b></h3><h3><b>Outlook for the second half of the year: Where are the investment opportunities?</b></h3>The underlying factors affecting asset price fluctuations are nothing more than<b>Liquidity, supply and demand, economy, policy</b>Aspects.</p><p>In the first half of the year, except for a few countries in the world, the overall economy took the repair route, which laid the foundation for the strengthening of the capital market.</p><p>But there are also many problems caused by water release, including<b>Persistently high inflation, structural overheating of the economy, increasing imbalance between supply and demand, and soaring asset price bubbles.</b></p><p>At present, the above problems facing the United States are particularly prominent. Regardless of the price increase of industrial supplies, real estate, consumer goods, etc., they are constantly creating new heights. The CPI in the United States soared to 5% in May, which was the level before the financial crisis broke out that year.</p><p>The U.S. government debt ratio has reached a 150-year high, and Biden is still increasing the volume by trillions, constantly testing the bottom line of the market.</p><p>Up to now, tightening liquidity to prevent overheating of the economic structure and stabilize inflation expectations has become a consideration that the United States has to face, and it has gradually become the consensus expectation of the global market.</p><p><b>But once it is really tightened, the logic of the global capital market will undergo a fundamental turn, especially at the moment when the asset bubble is obvious, the risk impact is no less than the \"king explosion\".</b></p><p>For China, there are still great economic and market worries in the second half of the year.</p><p>In the past year, China's economy has been able to perform well in the epidemic, mainly due to the growth of exports. When most countries in the world, especially Europe and the United States, the main consumer markets, were deeply plagued by the epidemic and their production and life stagnated, China strongly controlled the epidemic, resumed work and production as soon as possible, and coupled with its existing manufacturing capacity, exported products to the world, and reaped the dividends of this wave of global epidemic.</p><p><b>But now, the vaccination rate in Europe and the United States is getting higher and higher, many countries and regions have returned to normal production and life, and the demand for Chinese exports will gradually weaken. There is little chance that they want to continue to eat foreign trade dividends.</b></p><p>The other two growth drivers-investment and consumption, can't give much hope. The three major blocks of investment, the manufacturing industry, is difficult to expand, and the infrastructure has been done well. In recent months, the operating rates of some major industrial sectors have shown signs of falling back.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ee8a0552d2f6969db76cedffbe1e0fc3\" tg-width=\"905\" tg-height=\"632\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>The trend of China's PMI data and social financing data in recent months also clearly shows a downward trend.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/00d3462d319f9ea67b7652a6679c678d\" tg-width=\"915\" tg-height=\"632\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>Although real estate can be used as a short-term stimulus, it will go back to the old road of water stimulation. Moreover, there is actually not much room for operation in domestic housing prices. In addition, the central government has repeatedly reiterated that \"housing is for living, not for speculation\". The road is basically blocked.</p><p>Can you hope for consumption? That depends on<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/603883\">Common people</a>How much money is left in the pocket? Looking at the current residents' willingness to spend, it seems that it is not very optimistic. Even though the country has done a lot of things, such as controlling housing prices, killing off-campus education, and liberalizing the third child, from the perspective of consumption growth, it is showing a downward trend.</p><p><b>Therefore, the economic fundamentals in the second half of the year are still under pressure, and the stock market, as a barometer of the economy, will naturally be under pressure.</b>Although theoretically, if the state adjusts liquidity, the pressure on the stock market can be alleviated, the problem is that this is unknown, not to mention the possible water collection behavior of the Federal Reserve.</p><p><b>Therefore, don't expect too much from the market in the second half of the year, especially for U.S. stocks. No one can tell when rate hike, the gray rhinoceros, will come. The same goes for other commodity assets, not to mention cryptocurrencies.</b></p><p><b>But for A-shares, it is not without opportunities.</b></p><p>Funds always need to find a way out. When macro fundamentals are under pressure, they will tend to look for structural opportunities.</p><p>Although popular main lines such as photovoltaics, carbon neutrality, new energy vehicles (smart cars), semiconductors, biomedicine, big data, 5G communication applications, and new consumption have been generally hyped this year,<b>But in the long run, these are still sectors with certainty of growth, and they are also the favorite places for funds. Their future trend will still be a spiral upward trend. If they can survive, every callback may be an opportunity to get on the bus..</b></p><p>Another trend is that the current fund size has exceeded 22 trillion yuan, and it has increasingly become an important influencing force in A shares.<b>According to statistics, as of June, the scale of funds available to buy A shares is still about 832.1 billion yuan, which is enough to set off huge waves for A shares.</b></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8e50a0054df2fa81074420fc304a4a7a\" tg-width=\"950\" tg-height=\"581\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>In view of the fact that the past performance of funds in the past two years has generally been significantly stronger than the market, it is also a tricky way to make money by simply buying money to excellent fund managers and letting professionals do professional things. To a large extent, it can help us save the anxiety of not knowing what to invest in.</p><p><h3><b>3</b></h3><h3><b>epilogue</b></h3>Recently, many institutions have also released strategic reports for the second half of the year, which are generally similar to the ideas of this article, so the market consensus is still very strong.</p><p>Investment often tests people's vision and determination when the direction is unclear. There will still be big ups and downs in the market in the second half of the year. Many people may disappear after floating in this fluctuation, but there will also be people who seize the opportunity to get on the right car in every callback.</p><p>In the first half of the year, U.S. stocks continued to hit new highs, while A-shares and Hong Kong stocks were still stumbling, and even the direction was not completely out, which really made everyone feel uncomfortable.</p><p>I hope that what I didn't earn in the first half of the year can be earned back in the second half of the year.</p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> source：<a href=\"https://www.gelonghui.com/p/472711\">格隆汇</a></p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ad2dd670f9557c66480c84fc5e4bd415","relate_stocks":{"HSI":"恒生指数",".DJI":"道琼斯"},"source_url":"https://www.gelonghui.com/p/472711","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2147275816","content_text":"时间如梭，不知不觉，再过几个小时，今年上半年的时光就这么交待了。\n虽说金钱永不眠，资本多无情，但回顾上半年全球资本市场的疯狂与荒诞，还是不免让人心生感慨。\n辛辛苦苦大半年，你赚到了吗？\n本文和你一起总结一下，看看上半年全球的资产的兴兴落落，寻找市场资本发展的脉络，看能否窥探下半年的投资方向又在哪里。\n1\n上半年回顾：全球资产的盛宴与隐忧\n虽然今晚美国还有上半年的最后一战，但资产价格波动排位大战已基本尘埃落定。\n实际上，在上半年全球大类资产表现中，原油及有色等大宗商品是最强的，其次才是各国股市，但这也已是全球股市整体表现自从1998年以来第二好的记录了。\n原油算是享受疫情修复红利带来的死而后生式暴涨，如果拿当下的油价与前几年的相比，其实价格并没有涨上去，但股市确实是在很多国家都创出了历史新高，尤其今年还深受疫情冲击的越南、韩国、印度等市场甚至涨势最凶。\n这背后，全球性的疯狂放水功不可没。\n美股方面，三大指数涨幅约在13%附近。其中有几个趋势值得注意：\n一是美国的经济重振计划在海量放水影响下确实有所成效，标普500指数及道琼斯指数的单边趋势明显稳健强势于纳指；\n二是资产泡沫下，实际上几大市场很多中部市值股的表现都很强。据wind，美国三大市场的月成交从2019年的5万亿美元以下持续飙升至今年初破十万亿美元，翻了一番。虽然这并不能说明有泡沫，但能意味全民炒股现象很热，股民参与积极性很高。\n\n三是头部的科技龙头估值被炒到了历史偏高位置，很多同比上升有超30%，这一定程度上意味着泡沫的味道。\n\n以苹果为例，近10年以来苹果的估值平均在大概20倍附近波动，但去年开始就突破自身天花板，硬生生提升了一整个大level。如果它是从此有了更高成长性的新增量业务能让它享受比以往更高的估值待遇，未尝不可。但从近两年其业务表现，以及相继遇到的各种反垄断制裁看，这个假设并没有。\n\n这可以从近几年的财报数据看，苹果业绩增长甚至有下降趋势。而其近两年估值飙涨的主要原因，可能更多依赖于美国的持续海量放水以及自身通过不断大手笔回购，维护了股价。\n\n其实，其他FAAMG以及其他更多的大公司，都在这两年不断进行大额回购股票，很大程度上成为维护股价的重要力量。\n不过，上半年纳斯达克、纽交所超越港交所重新成为在全球IPO融资最大的两大交易所，累计上市融资超5757亿美元，美股依然是全球最热的重心。\n\nA股方面，如果是用几个成语来形容上半年的整体表现，那会是“大起大落、一地鸡毛、群魔乱舞”。上半年的超级过山车行情指导现在还历历在目，最终的表现是：沪指、深成指仅涨了3.45%、4.8%，远不及科创板和创业板的14%、17.3%。\n\n在板块上，权重低迷，成长作妖，题材乱炒的风格特征发挥的淋漓尽致，在原油、有色大宗商品带动下，整个传统建筑周期行业涨势最强，其次是绿色新能源概念的持续大涨，再次是生物医药、消费、科技这新三傻。其他的都是热不过三天的短线题材，往往结果一地鸡毛。\n但有人笑，也有人哭，由于宏观政策转变叠加市场偏好，导致非银金融及家电成为上半年最惨淡板块，其中又是各自行业龙头带崩。\n\n回顾上半年的A股，在题材搭台资金轮流唱戏的乱炒中，实际也有几个雷打不动的主线形成共识，新能源（汽车、光伏）、生物医药（创新药、医美）、新科技（鸿蒙、）高端消费（白酒，免税）等，沉淀了海量的资本，也把宁德时代推向了万亿市值，比亚迪现在也超过7千亿的历史新高。\n上半年的A股上市融资在加快，共有284家上市，同步翻倍，募集资金2127亿元，增长过半。\n\n整体看，上半年的A股还是表现算可以了，起码创业板形成了牛市的态势，市场信心也逐渐由担忧转向偏积极。\n港股方面，虽然上半年的港股市场不断有超级巨头公司赴港上市，为之引来了海量的增量资金，但整体表现依然更差于A股，恒指只有6%，内资股所在的国企指数甚至是负数。\n港股的弱势走势，背后其实有几个主要原因，包括疫情反复冲击，导致金融地产消费行业走冷、国家反垄断对作为大权重的互联网巨头打击、回港上市股开局估值溢价过高等。\n这可以从被资本市场给予厚望的恒生新经济指数走势中体现，走了一波过山车行情之后，指数仍在消化新逻辑变化之下，这些巨头们显得严重畸高的估值。\n\n港股作为中国资本出海中转的重要市场之一，IPO市场一直火热无比，今年虽然被美股抢了风头，其实也表现还很好。上半年累计新上市46家，募资2132亿港元，同比增了130%，其中包括快手，京东、百度、B站、携程、汽车之家等明星公司。\n\n大宗商品方面，去年的疫情对上游供应端冲击、叠加今年下游需求端的强势修复，农业产量危机、尤其在全球大放水背景下，原油能化、铜铝铁、农产品等联合共振，让全球大宗商品如同放缰野马，狂涨不止。\n截止目前，影响大宗商品的各大因素都还没看到明显转变，在当前供需严重失衡格局下，易涨难跌还在持续。\n此外还不得不说一下加密货币。在这一轮超级过山车中，在未跌之前，在炒币教父马斯克的来回翻腾下，比特币一度翻倍，山寨币炒作更是全面癫狂，不断出现数十倍，甚至上百倍涨幅，狗狗币400倍，屎币2万倍，不断引发全民关注与币民焦虑，也最终迎来各国的严令封杀，在一夜之间，无数上杠杆炒币的账户财富灰飞烟灭。\n\n加密货币可以说是全球流动性泛滥所溢出的畸形市场，短短数月就从被捧为未来核心资产到如今炒作逻辑都被打的稀巴烂，令人唏嘘！\n总结上半年全球资产表现，可以看出全球持续放水是共同因素，即使是在疫情冲击经济运行，企业层面多数面临经营业绩下滑压力的背景下，资产价格端依然可以通过海量放水强化未来预期来提振。这也是从去年到现在，全球资产一路脱离经济面大涨原因。\n2\n下半年展望：投资机遇在哪里？\n影响资产价格波动的底层因素不外乎流动性、供需、经济、政策方面。\n上半年，全球除了少部分国家，整体经济是走修复路线的，这是为资本市场走强打下了基础。\n但放水导致的问题也很多，包括持续高企的通胀、经济结构性过热、供需加剧失衡、资产价格泡沫飙升等。\n美国目前面临的上述问题尤其突出。无论工业用品、房地产、居民消费品等价格的涨幅，都不断在创造新高度。美国5月的CPI都飙到了5%，那是当年金融危机爆发前的水平。\n美国的政府债务率已经创150年新高，拜登还在万亿万亿地加量，不断试探市场的底线。\n到如今，通过收紧流动性来预防经济结构过热，稳定通胀预期，成为美国不得不面临的考虑，也逐渐成为全球市场的一致预期。\n但一旦真的收紧，全球资本市场的逻辑都会发生根本性转向，尤其在资产泡沫化明显的当下，风险影响不亚于“王炸”。\n对中国而言，下半年经济面及市场的隐忧都仍然很大。\n过去一年，中国经济能够在疫情中有不错的表现，主要原因是出口的增长，在全球大部分国家尤其是主要的消费市场--欧美，深受疫情困扰生产生活停滞之时，中国因为强力管控疫情，最快复工复产，加上本就拥有的制造业能力，为全球输出产品，吃到了这波全球疫情红利。\n但现在，欧美的疫苗接种率越来越高，不少国家和地区都已经恢复正常的生产生活，对中国出口产品的需求也会逐渐减弱，还想继续吃外贸红利，机会不大。\n而另外两个增长动力--投资和消费，也不可能给予太大希望，投资的三大块，制造业很难有扩张，基建也已经做得七七八八，近几个月已有一些主要工业部门开工率已经有回落迹象。\n\n近月的中国PMI数据和社融数据趋势，也明显看出了下行的趋势。\n\n而房地产虽然可以作为短期刺激手段，但又会走回放水刺激的老路，而且现在国内的房价，其实也没有太多可操作的空间，加上中央不断重申“房住不炒”，房地产这条路也基本堵死了。\n消费能寄望一下吗？那得看老百姓兜里还有多少钱，看看现在的居民消费意愿，貌似也没有很乐观。即使国家做了很多事，控房价、杀校外教育、放开三胎，但从消费增速上看，呈现的是下滑态势。\n所以下半年的经济基本面，还是承压的，股市作为经济的晴雨表，自然也会压力重重。虽然理论上，如果国家对流动性作出调节，那么股市的压力是可以缓解，问题就在于这个都是未知之数，何况还要面对美联储可能出现的收水行为。\n所以，下半年的行情不要寄望太多，尤其对于美股，谁也说不清楚加息这个灰犀牛什么时候会来。其他大宗商品资产也一样，加密货币就更加不用看了。\n但对A股来说，也不是没有机会。\n资金总是需要找寻出路的，在宏观基本面受压的情况下，它们会倾向于寻找结构性的机会。\n今年以来的光伏、碳中和、新能源车（智能汽车）、半导体、生物医药、大数据、5G通信应用、新消费等热门主线虽然已经普遍炒很高了，但从长远看，这些仍然是具备增长确定性板块，也是资金一直最爱去的地方，其未来的走势仍然会是螺旋上升态势，如果熬得住，每一次的回调，都可能是上车机会。\n另外一个趋势是，现在的基金规模已经超过22万亿，越来越成为了A股重要影响力量。据统计到6月为止可用于买A股的资金规模还有大约8321亿元，这个力量，足以对A股掀起滔天巨浪。\n\n鉴于近两年基金的往期表现普遍明显强于大市，所以直接干脆点，把钱买交给优秀基金经理打理，让专业人做专业事，也不失为一个躺赚的取巧方式，也很大程度上能帮我们省去不知道该投资什么的焦虑。\n3\n结语\n在近期，陆续有很多机构也发布下半年的策略报告，大体上跟本文的思路差不多，所以市场共识还是很强的。\n投资往往在方向不明朗的才能考验人的眼光和定力。下半年的市场大起大落依然还会出现，很多人可能这一次次波动中漂着漂着就不见踪影了，但也会有人在每一次回调中抓住机会上对了车。\n上半年美股继续创新高，A股港股还在跌跌撞撞，连方向都没完全走出来，确实让大家憋得难受。\n希望上半年没赚到的，下半年都能赚回来吧。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"HSI":0.9,".DJI":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2578,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":184608205,"gmtCreate":1623711519007,"gmtModify":1704209063950,"author":{"id":"3548268462187923","authorId":"3548268462187923","name":"适时做T","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/513358897b9c93a557b2aa918aa95006","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3548268462187923","authorIdStr":"3548268462187923"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"…","listText":"…","text":"…","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/184608205","repostId":"114899451","repostType":1,"repost":{"id":114899451,"gmtCreate":1623063308869,"gmtModify":1704195267674,"author":{"id":"36984908995200","authorId":"36984908995200","name":"小虎活动","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/44a4f89726b3f6319d06a0075bf9ff76","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"36984908995200","authorIdStr":"36984908995200"},"themes":[],"title":"【老虎7週年】集卡瓜分百萬獎金","htmlText":"老虎7週年給大家發福利了，集齊TIGER五個字母即有機會瓜分百萬獎金，你準備好了嗎？ <a href=\"https://www.itiger.com/activity/market/2021/7th-anniversary?lang=zh_CN\" target=\"_blank\">戳我即可參與活動</a> &#x1;如何參與？ 用戶可通過完成活動頁面展示的當日任務列表來獲得字母卡，每完成一個任務即可隨機獲得一個字母，用戶集齊“TIGER”五個字母即可參與瓜分百萬股票代金券，每個用戶單日最多可獲得20張字母卡（不包括好友贈予和魔法卡）。 用戶在活動期間邀請累計7名好友完成註冊並開戶（註冊時間和開戶時間均在活動期間），即可獲得一張魔法卡（每人僅可獲得一張魔法卡）。魔法卡可用於兌換TIGER中的任意一個字母。&#x1;如果用戶的某一字母卡數量爲0，則字母卡爲灰色，用戶可通過點擊灰色的字母卡向好友索要卡片；如果用戶的字母卡數量大於0，則字母卡爲彩色，用戶可通過點擊彩色的字母卡向好友贈送卡片。當用戶集齊TIGER之後將無法再索要卡片或者贈送卡片。 &#x1; &#x1;如何獲得獎勵？ 用戶可在2021年7月1日至2021年7月2日期間進行開獎，所有集齊TIGER的客戶可點擊活動頁面的“開獎”按鈕，即可查看自己瓜分到的股票代金券獎勵。在開獎時間段內未點擊開獎的用戶將無法獲得獎勵。&#x1; 獎勵發放： 股票代金券將在開獎後的1個工作日內發放至用戶的獎勵中心，用戶需要在獎勵發放後的20天內前往【Tiger Trade APP &gt; 我的 &gt; 活動獎勵】領取，過期未領取的獎勵將自動失效。 重要提示： 本次7週年活動涉及不同國家和地區，由於各地區的監管要求不同，不同地區的活動獎勵會有所區別。欲知詳情，請點擊下方活動鏈接，登陸您的賬號，並點擊“活動規則“查看詳情。","listText":"老虎7週年給大家發福利了，集齊TIGER五個字母即有機會瓜分百萬獎金，你準備好了嗎？ <a href=\"https://www.itiger.com/activity/market/2021/7th-anniversary?lang=zh_CN\" target=\"_blank\">戳我即可參與活動</a> &#x1;如何參與？ 用戶可通過完成活動頁面展示的當日任務列表來獲得字母卡，每完成一個任務即可隨機獲得一個字母，用戶集齊“TIGER”五個字母即可參與瓜分百萬股票代金券，每個用戶單日最多可獲得20張字母卡（不包括好友贈予和魔法卡）。 用戶在活動期間邀請累計7名好友完成註冊並開戶（註冊時間和開戶時間均在活動期間），即可獲得一張魔法卡（每人僅可獲得一張魔法卡）。魔法卡可用於兌換TIGER中的任意一個字母。&#x1;如果用戶的某一字母卡數量爲0，則字母卡爲灰色，用戶可通過點擊灰色的字母卡向好友索要卡片；如果用戶的字母卡數量大於0，則字母卡爲彩色，用戶可通過點擊彩色的字母卡向好友贈送卡片。當用戶集齊TIGER之後將無法再索要卡片或者贈送卡片。 &#x1; &#x1;如何獲得獎勵？ 用戶可在2021年7月1日至2021年7月2日期間進行開獎，所有集齊TIGER的客戶可點擊活動頁面的“開獎”按鈕，即可查看自己瓜分到的股票代金券獎勵。在開獎時間段內未點擊開獎的用戶將無法獲得獎勵。&#x1; 獎勵發放： 股票代金券將在開獎後的1個工作日內發放至用戶的獎勵中心，用戶需要在獎勵發放後的20天內前往【Tiger Trade APP &gt; 我的 &gt; 活動獎勵】領取，過期未領取的獎勵將自動失效。 重要提示： 本次7週年活動涉及不同國家和地區，由於各地區的監管要求不同，不同地區的活動獎勵會有所區別。欲知詳情，請點擊下方活動鏈接，登陸您的賬號，並點擊“活動規則“查看詳情。","text":"老虎7週年給大家發福利了，集齊TIGER五個字母即有機會瓜分百萬獎金，你準備好了嗎？ 戳我即可參與活動 \u0001如何參與？ 用戶可通過完成活動頁面展示的當日任務列表來獲得字母卡，每完成一個任務即可隨機獲得一個字母，用戶集齊“TIGER”五個字母即可參與瓜分百萬股票代金券，每個用戶單日最多可獲得20張字母卡（不包括好友贈予和魔法卡）。 用戶在活動期間邀請累計7名好友完成註冊並開戶（註冊時間和開戶時間均在活動期間），即可獲得一張魔法卡（每人僅可獲得一張魔法卡）。魔法卡可用於兌換TIGER中的任意一個字母。\u0001如果用戶的某一字母卡數量爲0，則字母卡爲灰色，用戶可通過點擊灰色的字母卡向好友索要卡片；如果用戶的字母卡數量大於0，則字母卡爲彩色，用戶可通過點擊彩色的字母卡向好友贈送卡片。當用戶集齊TIGER之後將無法再索要卡片或者贈送卡片。 \u0001 \u0001如何獲得獎勵？ 用戶可在2021年7月1日至2021年7月2日期間進行開獎，所有集齊TIGER的客戶可點擊活動頁面的“開獎”按鈕，即可查看自己瓜分到的股票代金券獎勵。在開獎時間段內未點擊開獎的用戶將無法獲得獎勵。\u0001 獎勵發放： 股票代金券將在開獎後的1個工作日內發放至用戶的獎勵中心，用戶需要在獎勵發放後的20天內前往【Tiger Trade APP > 我的 > 活動獎勵】領取，過期未領取的獎勵將自動失效。 重要提示： 本次7週年活動涉及不同國家和地區，由於各地區的監管要求不同，不同地區的活動獎勵會有所區別。欲知詳情，請點擊下方活動鏈接，登陸您的賬號，並點擊“活動規則“查看詳情。","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/fd956a9c2fc9ee609753ae5f967072a7","width":"415","height":"616"},{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/92e88357b534f504b3088bc22f577a83","width":"415","height":"326"},{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/fe0400cc487fb56f85d401ab03df4d5e","width":"415","height":"356"}],"top":1,"highlighted":2,"essential":1,"paper":2,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/114899451","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":0,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":8,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2345,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":118733161,"gmtCreate":1622761412753,"gmtModify":1704190504069,"author":{"id":"3548268462187923","authorId":"3548268462187923","name":"适时做T","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/513358897b9c93a557b2aa918aa95006","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3548268462187923","authorIdStr":"3548268462187923"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"ddffffftygh","listText":"ddffffftygh","text":"ddffffftygh","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/118733161","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2385,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":368104994,"gmtCreate":1614297892018,"gmtModify":1704770271295,"author":{"id":"3548268462187923","authorId":"3548268462187923","name":"适时做T","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/513358897b9c93a557b2aa918aa95006","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3548268462187923","authorIdStr":"3548268462187923"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"tmdcnm","listText":"tmdcnm","text":"tmdcnm","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/368104994","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2085,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":332266344,"gmtCreate":1610414341288,"gmtModify":1704983519892,"author":{"id":"3548268462187923","authorId":"3548268462187923","name":"适时做T","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/513358897b9c93a557b2aa918aa95006","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3548268462187923","authorIdStr":"3548268462187923"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"00","listText":"00","text":"00","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/332266344","repostId":"1182427224","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2223,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":333766327,"gmtCreate":1609372052769,"gmtModify":1704978655398,"author":{"id":"3548268462187923","authorId":"3548268462187923","name":"适时做T","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/513358897b9c93a557b2aa918aa95006","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3548268462187923","authorIdStr":"3548268462187923"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"：！！","listText":"：！！","text":"：！！","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/333766327","repostId":"1154691529","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1154691529","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1609327661,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1154691529?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2020-12-30 19:27","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"U.S. Macroeconomic Outlook 2021: Uncertain Outlook, Full of Crisis","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1154691529","media":"新浪财经","summary":"一、回顾2020，经济惨淡市场疯狂\n回顾2020，我们正确预测了美国经济颓废走势，然而市场的疯狂却出乎意料。\n（一）一方面，我们的分析正确预测了经济的颓废走势。\n我们分析的主要依据，首先是美国经济原本","content":"<p><b>1. Looking back on 2020, the economy is bleak and the market is crazy</b></p><p>Looking back on 2020, we correctly predicted the decadent trend of the US economy, but the madness of the market was unexpected.</p><p>(1) On the one hand, our analysis correctly predicted the decadent trend of economy.</p><p>The main basis for our analysis is that, firstly, the U.S. economy is already on the verge of a cyclical economic crisis. Secondly, the U.S. government's passive fight against the epidemic has caused the epidemic to get out of control, which has made the economy worse. Finally, although the scale of national rescue measures is unprecedented, their bias and limitations limit the effectiveness. This has seriously hindered the economic recovery of the United States. Specifically:</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6f651ec27751bf737490082d7ad19609\" tg-width=\"550\" tg-height=\"220\"></p><p>(Credit card delinquency rate of small and medium-sized banks in the United States. Gray is the economic crisis. Data source: Federal Reserve Economic Database)</p><p><b>First of all, the U.S. economy was already quite fragile at the end of last year and is gradually moving towards the next cyclical economic crisis.</b>Although economists of mainstream institutions in the United States were generally optimistic about the economic development of the United States at the beginning of the year, we didn't agree. The root cause of the outbreak of cyclical economic crisis lies in the restricted consumption of people. People's wage growth is sluggish, and they have to rely on borrowing to maintain consumption growth. However, borrowing money for consumption is unsustainable, resulting in people's limited purchasing power being insufficient to absorb the continuously expanding supply, resulting in a relative surplus of production. Product backlogs lead to a decline in corporate profit margins, and when profit margins drop to a certain point, companies will begin to reduce investment, cut working hours, and even start laying off employees. However, this will further reduce investment and consumer demand, and the oversupply will become more serious, leading to a further decline in corporate profits, thus falling into an a vicious circle and eventually triggering an economic crisis. As can be seen from the figure above, as of the fourth quarter of 2019, the credit card delinquency rate of small and medium-sized banks in the United States (which have more low-level customers and are more sensitive to the economy) has exceeded the pre-crisis levels in 2000 and 2008, indicating that consumption growth can no longer be supported by borrowing. The chart below shows that historically, the decline of corporate profit margins to a certain point often led to economic crisis, and last year it was close to this level.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1a0da671f84ef56a0ded9d477c0d76c6\" tg-width=\"550\" tg-height=\"261\"></p><p><b>Other valid leading indicators, including working hours and discretionary consumption growth, also point to the economic crisis.</b>When corporate profits decline, whether it is shortening workers' working hours or cutting staff, the total number of working hours will be reduced. When people's income falls due to unemployment and insufficient working hours, or their debt is unaffordable, they will reduce consumption expansion, especially for discretionary goods. As can be seen from the following two charts, the year-on-year growth rates of total working hours and non-essential goods will begin to decline continuously in the past quarters before the arrival of the economic crisis, warning of the arrival of the crisis. As of the fourth quarter of 2019, both indicators have shown a downward trend. These data and a range of other indicators we looked at show that the economic crisis was already approaching at the end of 2019.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2d1dae247273fd00fc067598efab7b4f\" tg-width=\"550\" tg-height=\"262\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/89a1d2d569ad36ff2653fd34bbbcb9ec\" tg-width=\"550\" tg-height=\"268\"></p><p><b>Second, profits take the lead in passively fighting the epidemic, which makes the epidemic out of control worse.</b>Out of our understanding of the nature of the U.S. government's service to capital, we predicted at the beginning of the outbreak that the U.S. government would put capital profits above people's health and lives, and might refuse to take necessary anti-epidemic measures that would harm profits. Passive fight against the epidemic has caused the epidemic to get out of control. As of December 19, the number of confirmed cases of COVID-19 in the United States exceeded 17.8 million, and the death toll exceeded 310,000. As the U.S. government's anti-epidemic measures continue to relax, the epidemic is getting more and more serious. At present, the daily number of confirmed cases has exceeded 250,000 (below), and the daily death toll has exceeded 3,000, which is even worse than the daily 9/11 terrorist attack (2,606 deaths). The out-of-control epidemic is not caused by the incompetence of the U.S. government as the global military hegemon, but more like a deliberate plan. After all, the vast majority of infections and deaths come from people at the bottom, especially people of color. The rich hide in luxury houses and even small islands, and have the best medical conditions in the world. If we only consider profits, even if 1 million people at the bottom (less than 0.3% of the total population) die, the loss will be smaller than shutting down the economy for two months. However, this greedy, short-sighted and cruel policy of the American ruling class has caused repeated outbreaks and intensification of the epidemic, making the economic recovery of the United States lag behind that of countries accused of the epidemic.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/47ba07e5188dd7a48630121bb33ceda1\" tg-width=\"550\" tg-height=\"222\"></p><p>(The daily number of new confirmed cases of COVID-19 patients in the United States and its 7-day average, data source: The New York Times)</p><p><b>Third, government rescue measures are heavily biased towards capital. Although the scale is unprecedented, the effect is limited.</b>Also out of our understanding of the nature of the U.S. government's service capital, we predict that the U.S. government's rescue measures will be greatly biased towards big capital rather than ordinary people. This means that the monetary policy of printing money out of thin air to save capital will be extremely loose, while the fiscal policy that requires capital to pay the bill may be sloppy and biased. Sure enough, the Federal Reserve first quickly lowered interest rates to zero in early March when the epidemic began to appear, launched an unprecedented \"unlimited quantitative easing\" monetary policy, and expanded its balance sheet by US $3 trillion within three months to save the market (picture below). At the end of March, the U.S. government launched the first round of fiscal stimulus plan of 2 trillion yuan, the largest part of which was used to rescue American enterprises (44%), only 15% subsidized American families, and 15% increased unemployment benefits. Even the relief to the American people is to ensure that the people can pay their mortgages and rents, so as not to harm the interests of American banks and homeowners. However, the relief for the American people expired at the end of July, and the U.S. Congress has been wrangling for several months to obstruct the introduction of a new round of relief plans. Loose monetary policy can boost asset markets, but history has proved to have limited effect on the real economy. However, the financial stimulus that plays a greater role in the real economy and people's livelihood, especially the effective public investment in infrastructure, science, education and welfare, is missing. The U.S. government's policies will not only create debt and asset bubbles, but also aggravate people's suffering and hinder the real recovery of the U.S. economy.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/632d4b87e4d45512790a4f708967523d\" tg-width=\"550\" tg-height=\"239\"></p><p>(Net total assets of the Federal Reserve. Gray is the economic crisis. Data source: Federal Reserve Economic Database FRED)</p><p><b>The actual data verifies our forecast that the U.S. economy is in severe decline and the recovery tends to stagnate.</b></p><p><b>First, GDP has shrunk significantly.</b>As can be seen from the figure below, U.S. GDP plummeted by 9% year-on-year under the impact of the epidemic. Despite the resumption of work at the end of April, GDP still shrank by 2.9% year-on-year in the third quarter, and forward-looking private investment shrank by 3.8% year-on-year. Subsequent data showed that the improvement tended to stagnate.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/bd4cc475fe14a0160091059bdf898b2d\" tg-width=\"550\" tg-height=\"222\"></p><p>(U.S. GDP year-on-year growth rate, data source: Federal Reserve Economic Database FRED)</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/be5b3bd52de2660ae58c5556db18cfc8\" tg-width=\"550\" tg-height=\"217\"></p><p>(Monthly year-on-year growth rate: blue is industrial production, red is actual private consumption. Data source: FRED)</p><p><b>To make matters worse, the recent recovery in production and consumption has stalled.</b>According to the latest monthly data (above), the gross industrial output shrank by 5.5% year-on-year in November, worse than in October; Real private consumption, which accounts for 70% of U.S. GDP, grew at a year-on-year rate of-1.8% in October (nearly 5 percentage points lower than the pre-epidemic growth rate). High-frequency data through December 14 shows (below) that credit card spending contracted by 4.7% compared with the same period last year, and the recovery has stalled since October.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/093623e7822b7c5a3ff823d9f402fdfe\" tg-width=\"405\" tg-height=\"264\"></p><p>(YoY 7-day average of Chase Bank credit card spending, as of December 14. Data source: JPMorgan Chase Bank)</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c775b545636006c32be575d3ed551881\" tg-width=\"550\" tg-height=\"239\"></p><p>(U.S. non-farm payrolls increased month-on-month, data source: Federal Reserve Economic Database FRED)</p><p><b>Most seriously, the improvement in employment has reversed.</b>Employment is the pillar of consumption and the most important internal driving force of economic recovery, so it is the core indicator to measure economic recovery. As can be seen from the above chart, as of early November, the month-on-month growth of non-farm payrolls in the United States has continued to slow down since May. The high-frequency data as of December 14th (below) shows that the improvement in employment has begun to reverse in the last month, and the total number of employed people has begun to decline, more than 10 million lower than that in February. This does not include the semi-unemployed population caused by the economic downturn.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/227c3e19fd3b768a13b57d197f62dcd4\" tg-width=\"433\" tg-height=\"262\"></p><p>(Total non-farm payrolls: official data (blue) vs. other data (yellow). Data source: JPMorgan Chase Bank)</p><p><b>In addition, due to the bleak economic outlook, banks continue to tighten their monetary policy despite abundant liquidity.</b>According to the bank survey data released by the Federal Reserve in November (below), in the second quarter, banks generally raised their commercial loan standards for large and medium-sized enterprises (the number of banks that raised their standards was 70 percentage points more than that that did not), and in the third quarter, most banks continued to raise their loan standards (38 percentage points more than those that did not). Similarly, after banks generally raised their personal consumption credit standards in the second quarter, most banks continued to raise their standards in the third quarter. The continuous improvement of credit standards by banks reflects that banks are increasingly pessimistic about the economic outlook, which will also lead to credit tension and affect corporate operations and consumption recovery.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e0e2a88c1f32b115bd13657865b2ee15\" tg-width=\"550\" tg-height=\"234\"></p><p>(Net proportion of banks that have raised their credit standards: commercial loans in blue and personal consumption credit in red. Data source: FRED)</p><p><b>At the same time, the life of the people at the bottom of the United States is becoming increasingly difficult, hindering economic recovery.</b>Severe unemployment, insufficient government assistance, and lack of access to borrowing make it difficult for many families in the United States to afford the most basic living needs. According to U.S. government data (below), 12.7% of American families are currently facing food shortages, and 9.1% of families lack housing security. For the most powerful country in the world, this not only reflects the extreme social injustice (it is reported that the richest class in the United States greatly increased their wealth due to government bailouts during the epidemic), but also reflects the sharp decline in the spending power of ordinary people, which will hinder economic recovery.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8aef3db6e58d10c666a84973ed058846\" tg-width=\"479\" tg-height=\"266\"></p><p>(Percentage of U.S. households facing food shortages and lack of housing security. Data source: U.S. Census Bureau)</p><p><b>(2) On the other hand, the madness of the market is unexpected.</b></p><p><b>First of all, the stock market rebounded extremely quickly and hit new highs.</b>The S&P 500 index fell nearly 30% in a month in the first quarter, then quickly rebounded, recovering lost ground and hitting a new high within six months, rising 15% this year as of December 18. The Nasdaq 100 stock index, which is mainly composed of large high-tech companies, has rebounded even more violently after falling nearly 30%, rising more than 45% this year as of December 18. In contrast, during the 2000 crisis, the S&P 500 fell by nearly 50% in two and a half years, and the Nasdaq fell by more than 75%; During the 2008 crisis, the S&P 500 fell 56% in a year and a half, while the Nasdaq fell 54%. In the 2008 crisis, it took six years for the S&P 500 to regain lost ground, while in the 2000 crisis, it took 13 years for the stock index to really recover.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8cf2e241a5358bbd56baf375d616e0af\" tg-width=\"531\" tg-height=\"282\"></p><p>(US Standard 500 and Nasdaq stock index trends. Source: Yahoo Finance)</p><p><b>In addition, the P/E of the stock market has also risen to historical highs.</b>Shiller, the Nobel Prize-winning president in economics, advocated the use of Schiller P/E (P/E), in which the denominator uses the average of the company's long-term profits (10-15 years), instead of the commonly used profits in the past or next 12 months. This can cover the entire economic cycle and better reflect the reasonable valuation of the stock market. As can be seen from the figure below, Schiller P/E (15 years) has reached 35 at the beginning of this year, significantly exceeding the levels before the stock market crashes in 1929 (27) and 2008 (29), and only lower than the level during the Internet bubble in 2000. High valuation does not mean that the stock market must plummet. For example, the current valuation of the stock market is equivalent to the level of 1998, when the stock market still rose for two years before finally collapsing. As can also be seen from the figure below, previous stock market bubbles in history have often been punctured by economic crises, and the higher the stock market valuation, the heavier the crisis, and the greater the decline. As of December 18, Schiller P/E (15 years) has risen to 39. Investment experts often defend high valuations with low interest rates and lack of alternative investment options, which we will discuss in the next section through historical data.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b7fd7fe83806353768a2e0d19ac8a536\" tg-width=\"550\" tg-height=\"246\"></p><p>(The 15-year Schiller PE of the S&P 500 in the United States, the gray part is the economic crisis. Data source dqydj.com)</p><p>meanwhile<b>, the IPO market is also in an unprecedented hot state, and it also ignores the company's fundamentals.</b>The amount of IPO financing in 2020 is close to US $150 billion, far exceeding the last peak level of US $100 billion in 1999 and 2000 (chart below). At the same time, investors seem to ignore the company's performance, and more than 80% of IPO companies are at a loss, which is similar to the peak of the Internet in 2000. For example, the recent listing of Airbnb, an Internet travel rental company whose business has been hit hard under the impact of the epidemic, not only received a valuation of US $100 billion in its IPO, but also doubled its stock price on the day of listing. This is reminiscent of the madness of investing in Internet companies in 2000.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b764c4abd0c78607d74993f9f6d1bab2\" tg-width=\"550\" tg-height=\"216\"></p><p>(U.S. IPO financing volume, unit 1 billion US dollars. Light color is SPAC, dark color is other IPO. Data source: Bloomberg)</p><p><b>The reasons behind the market madness are worth thinking about.</b>Before the current economic crisis, the valuation of the stock market was higher than before the 2008 crisis, and the degree of the crisis, whether measured by the economic downturn or unemployment, was more serious than the crises of 2000 and 2008. However, the market reacted quite differently, with a brief decline followed by a sharp rebound and constantly hitting new highs. The stock market is seriously divorced from the fundamentals. From the \"rearview mirror\", we can see that there are a series of special reasons behind it.</p><p><b>First, the market doesn't think this will be a long-lasting, deep crisis.</b>Cyclical economic crises like 2000 and 2008, which are protracted, will lead to a large number of companies closing down, and the recovery process is extremely slow. While we realized before the pandemic in the United States that the economy was already on the verge of a cyclical crisis, markets and economists tend to be hindsighted about cyclical economic crises. Therefore, they believe that this is only a temporary impact of the epidemic on the economy, and it will return to normal after the epidemic. As the epidemic worsens, they are increasingly convinced that all fundamental bad news is a temporary impact from the epidemic, rather than a structural problem in the economy.</p><p><b>Second, the Fed's \"unlimited quantification\" fueled the flames.</b>When the stock market plummeted, the Federal Reserve not only cut interest rates to zero, but also announced an \"unlimited\" quantitative easing, injecting massive liquidity into the market by expanding its balance sheet by more than $3 trillion. Even the $1,200 issued by the U.S. government to each person has become a bargaining chip for many retail investors in the stock market. As can be seen from the figure below, the total amount of M2 money in the United States increased by as much as 25% year-on-year, far exceeding the 11% at the peak of the financial crisis in 2008. Such turbulent liquidity has greatly promoted the capital market. A popular saying on Wall Street is: \"Never go against the Fed\".</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/82ee63596ffb216d1d2234190a093fd2\" tg-width=\"550\" tg-height=\"229\"></p><p>(Year-on-year growth rate of U.S. M2 currency. Gray is the recession stage. Data source: Federal Reserve Economic Database FRED)</p><p><b>Third, investors subjectively look for all reasons to support the rise of the stock market.</b>Investors who were unaware of the economic crisis, egged on by abundant liquidity, were willing to look for all reasons to explain the rationality of stock rises. This phenomenon of subjective self-rationalization can be seen from the impact of the general election on the stock market. Before the general election, the Democratic Party is expected to take all the thrones of the president and the Senate. It is explained that the Democratic government has a large stimulus and is conducive to economic recovery, so the stock market has soared. Later, Trump took the lead in votes, explaining that Trump's policy was more conducive to investors, so the stock market soared; Finally, the Democratic Party is the president, and the Republican Party has a high probability of occupying the Senate. This is explained that splitting the government and restricting each other are conducive to policy stability, and the stock market is still soaring. It can be seen that even contradictory news does not affect investors from finding reasons to push the stock market up.</p><p><b>Fourthly, the story of the new high-tech economic model brought about by the epidemic is touching.</b>In the S&P 500 industry index, the technology, consumer discretionary and communication services industries where American technology giants are located have surged by 40%, 28% and 25% respectively this year, while the energy industry directly related to the real economy has plummeted by 33% (below). If you want to form a surge in the stock market, you must have a touching story that everyone can understand. In the 1990s, the Internet changed the economic model, and the stock market would continue to rise; In the 2000s, financial innovation reduced market risks, and the stock market would continue to rise; The 2010s is a long period of low interest rates and reduced return requirements, and the stock market will continue to rise. The story of the epidemic changing human life and ushering in a high-tech future is easy to understand and full of temptation. Of course, many touching stories in the past ended with the stock market crash. Will \"this time is different\"-which is known as the most expensive words in financial history-really come true this time?</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ffc959c59156fb3c546594aee45347e2\" tg-width=\"550\" tg-height=\"241\"></p><p>(The trend of the US S&P 500 industry stock index this year, data source: Yahoo Finance)</p><p><b>Fifth, retail investors flocked to incite the market.</b>This story is so simple that all small investors can understand and agree with it. According to reports, in the United States, which has always been dominated by institutional investors, personal trading accounts and trading activities have increased sharply after the outbreak of the epidemic. Although retail investors have a small amount of funds, they often use derivatives as leverage, so they can incite larger funds and have an excessive impact on the market.</p><p><b>Sixth, digitalization and passive trading have also intensified the market's trend of following suit.</b>Digital trading and passive investing have developed rapidly in the United States in the past 20 years and have grown into the mainstream in recent years. Passive investment does not analyze the fundamentals and buys and sells according to the market direction. Quantitative strategies often focus on short-term trends and can rarely make correct judgments on long-term macro trends. Moreover, the trading logic is mostly similar, resulting in convergence of trading directions. The development of these trading strategies has exacerbated the separation between the market and fundamentals.</p><p><b>The above series of phenomena are actually classic characteristics of market bubbles.</b>Investors who are unaware of the risk of the crisis, driven by the huge liquidity of the Federal Reserve, are looking for all reasons to support the rise of the stock market. They are impressed by a touching story, which drives countless retail investors to flock to it. Coupled with digitalization and passive trading, they encourage follow-up investment. All this leads to the inevitable breeding of bubbles, and the stock market will deviate further and further from the fundamentals. However, history has proved that dignified reality will eventually pull the stock market back to the ground.</p><p><b>The biggest lesson taught us in 2020 is to learn the old Wall Street saying again: \"The market can remain irrational longer than you can.\"</b>The market can stay irrational longer than you can stay solvent. When the market bubble is serious, shorting the market against the current will eventually win, but it may suffer heavy losses for a long period of time.</p><p><b>2. Looking forward to 2021: The outlook is uncertain and the risks are full</b></p><p><b>Looking forward to 2021, a series of optimistic assumptions supporting the stock market cannot be guaranteed to be fully realized, and the risk of bubble bursting cannot be ignored.</b>If the following situations happen, the market will make corresponding adjustments, and even cause the stock market to fall sharply in serious cases.</p><p><b>First, the economic crisis</b>: Even if the epidemic is accused, the crisis may not yet be cleared, and it is difficult for profits to grow rapidly. Demand in the United States was weak before the epidemic and was on the verge of a cyclical economic crisis with relative overproduction, and the epidemic further weakened demand. Even if the epidemic is accused, when a large number of workers lose their jobs and corporate finances are weakened, it will be difficult for consumption and investment demand to recover quickly, and it will be difficult for corporate profits to grow rapidly. What's more, this extreme imbalance between supply and demand usually requires large-scale destruction of capital and production capacity in the form of crisis to reduce supply before it can be cleared, so that the remaining strong companies can restart profitable growth and start a new round of economic cycle. According to Bloomberg data, during the economic crisis from January 2008 to June 2009, a total of 370 companies with debts of more than $50 million in the United States closed down. Since the total debt of non-financial companies in the United States (US $31.2 trillion) has doubled that of 2008 (US $15.4 trillion), the number of companies with debt of more than US $50 million should increase significantly compared with 2008. Therefore, to destroy the same proportion of capital and production capacity, the number of bankrupt companies needs to significantly exceed the 370 in the 2008 crisis. By contrast, as of December 12, only 236 companies with debt size of more than $50 million have failed this year under the unprecedented bailout of the U.S. government. This means that a large number of business closures may still be needed to truly clear the economy. Therefore, the economic crisis may not really end.</p><p><b>Second, the epidemic development</b>: The government's negativity has caused the epidemic to get out of control, and the prospect after the vaccine is released is not yet completely clear. Investment expects that after the vaccine is released, the epidemic situation in the United States can be controlled quickly, normal life can be basically restored, and consumer demand can be released. However, the epidemic situation in the United States is extremely serious, and the diagnosis rate per unit population far exceeds that of other western countries (see the chart below). In addition, due to the misleading propaganda of right-wing politicians such as Trump, many people don't believe in the harmfulness of Novel Coronavirus. Many people who believe in the harmfulness have doubts about the safety of vaccines hastily launched by the government and drug dealers, so most Americans are unwilling to accept vaccines. At the same time, due to the need for ultra-low temperature storage of vaccines in the United States, transportation and distribution are difficult. In this way, it is uncertain when the epidemic will be charged. The longer it drags on, the more companies close down, the worse the financial situation of businesses and individuals, and the more difficult it is for workers to get back into employment, the deeper the long-term impact of the pandemic on economic vitality may be, and the more difficult it will be to recover.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/22992bcf89dd59641632c49c9e0e6a2d\" tg-width=\"510\" tg-height=\"322\"></p><p>(Number of confirmed cases of COVID-19 per 100,000 population: US dark red, EU dark green, Canada red, Japan green, South Korea pink)</p><p><b>Third, government policy: it is difficult to play a sufficient role in truly reversing the economic downturn.</b>On the one hand, although fiscal policy can better alleviate the problem of insufficient demand and promote economic recovery, American capital is unwilling to pay for public investment and social welfare, and its implementation faces many political obstacles. For example, although the scale of the new round of fiscal rescue plan has been reduced from the expected 1.5 trillion US dollars to 900 billion US dollars, it is still wrangled in Congress and has not yet been passed, and the effective infrastructure plan in boosting the economy is even missing. On the other hand, although the ultra-loose monetary policy can support the breeding of asset bubbles, the long-term practice results of the United States, Japan and the European Union have proved that it has a limited effect on the real economy, and it will aggravate the polarization between the rich and the poor, worsen the imbalance between investment and demand, aggravate the economic crisis and cause bubble bursting.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/555a11dee2888ad473cb3cfc2b6fa7ba\" tg-width=\"550\" tg-height=\"240\"></p><p>(Red is the Dow Jones stock index, blue is the 3-month Treasury Bond interest rate, red is the AAA corporate bond yield, and gray is the economic crisis)</p><p>Federal Reserve Chairman Powell recently stated that interest rates will be kept low for a long time. At the same time, he agreed with the mainstream view of the market, saying that the high valuation of the stock market is reasonable in a long-term low interest rate environment. But the historical data is not so optimistic: as can be seen from the above chart, after the Great Depression of 1929, from 1934 to 1945, the interest rate in the United States was low for a long time, the 3-month Treasury Bond was always below 0.5%, and the yield of corporate bonds also dropped to about 3% in 1937. The Dow Jones stock index nearly doubled between 1934 and 1937, but it didn't last long. In 1937, the cyclical economic crisis broke out again. The stock market plummeted by nearly 40% in one year, and then fluctuated down by 15% in four years. It seems that the low interest rate environment can't guarantee the long-term prosperity of the stock market. When it rises depends on whether the economy will be in deep crisis.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/16bb84f7a4f42a58dcb8db7f9a133078\" tg-width=\"550\" tg-height=\"231\"></p><p>(Total consumer credit in the United States. Data source: Federal Reserve Economic Database FRED)</p><p><b>Fourth, debt risk: the personal debt of enterprises is high, and the risk of debt crisis accumulates sharply.</b>First of all, at present, the level of corporate lending and personal consumption debt has far exceeded the level on the eve of the 2008 subprime mortgage crisis. As can be seen from the above chart, the total amount of consumer credit in the United States has been growing in recent years, an increase of 62% compared with before the 2008 crisis. The figure below shows that the leverage ratio of non-financial companies in the United States has now risen to twice that before the 2008 crisis. What's more, the data shows that the current scale of subprime mortgage is higher than before the subprime mortgage crisis. The circulation of BBB-rated bonds, the lowest grade of investment-grade corporate bonds, has been soaring in the past 10 years. By 2019, it has tripled that of the eve of the subprime mortgage crisis, while the proportion of low-rated corporate bonds has risen from less than 20% in 2008 to nearly 40%, doubled. Bloomberg reports show that in 2020, under the impact of the epidemic and the release of water by the Federal Reserve, the issuance of junk bonds in the United States hit a record. Under the current severe economic situation, the risk of debt crisis cannot be ignored. If the debt crisis is transmitted to the financial system and causes a financial crisis, the consequences will be even more unimaginable.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8a4ab5853e27eeca6d818bd4841f82cf\" tg-width=\"550\" tg-height=\"234\"></p><p>(Leverage ratio of U.S. non-financial companies. Data source: Federal Reserve Economic Database)</p><p><b>All in all, in 2020, the U.S. stock market will soar wildly due to the aforementioned reasons under the bleak economic background, but the outlook for 2021 is not so optimistic. It is difficult to guarantee that a series of premises and assumptions supporting the stock market will all be realized, and the numerous risks that may trigger bubble bursting cannot be ignored.</b></p>","source":"XLCJ","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>U.S. Macroeconomic Outlook 2021: Uncertain Outlook, Full of Crisis</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nU.S. Macroeconomic Outlook 2021: Uncertain Outlook, Full of Crisis\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">新浪财经</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2020-12-30 19:27</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><b>1. Looking back on 2020, the economy is bleak and the market is crazy</b></p><p>Looking back on 2020, we correctly predicted the decadent trend of the US economy, but the madness of the market was unexpected.</p><p>(1) On the one hand, our analysis correctly predicted the decadent trend of economy.</p><p>The main basis for our analysis is that, firstly, the U.S. economy is already on the verge of a cyclical economic crisis. Secondly, the U.S. government's passive fight against the epidemic has caused the epidemic to get out of control, which has made the economy worse. Finally, although the scale of national rescue measures is unprecedented, their bias and limitations limit the effectiveness. This has seriously hindered the economic recovery of the United States. Specifically:</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6f651ec27751bf737490082d7ad19609\" tg-width=\"550\" tg-height=\"220\"></p><p>(Credit card delinquency rate of small and medium-sized banks in the United States. Gray is the economic crisis. Data source: Federal Reserve Economic Database)</p><p><b>First of all, the U.S. economy was already quite fragile at the end of last year and is gradually moving towards the next cyclical economic crisis.</b>Although economists of mainstream institutions in the United States were generally optimistic about the economic development of the United States at the beginning of the year, we didn't agree. The root cause of the outbreak of cyclical economic crisis lies in the restricted consumption of people. People's wage growth is sluggish, and they have to rely on borrowing to maintain consumption growth. However, borrowing money for consumption is unsustainable, resulting in people's limited purchasing power being insufficient to absorb the continuously expanding supply, resulting in a relative surplus of production. Product backlogs lead to a decline in corporate profit margins, and when profit margins drop to a certain point, companies will begin to reduce investment, cut working hours, and even start laying off employees. However, this will further reduce investment and consumer demand, and the oversupply will become more serious, leading to a further decline in corporate profits, thus falling into an a vicious circle and eventually triggering an economic crisis. As can be seen from the figure above, as of the fourth quarter of 2019, the credit card delinquency rate of small and medium-sized banks in the United States (which have more low-level customers and are more sensitive to the economy) has exceeded the pre-crisis levels in 2000 and 2008, indicating that consumption growth can no longer be supported by borrowing. The chart below shows that historically, the decline of corporate profit margins to a certain point often led to economic crisis, and last year it was close to this level.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1a0da671f84ef56a0ded9d477c0d76c6\" tg-width=\"550\" tg-height=\"261\"></p><p><b>Other valid leading indicators, including working hours and discretionary consumption growth, also point to the economic crisis.</b>When corporate profits decline, whether it is shortening workers' working hours or cutting staff, the total number of working hours will be reduced. When people's income falls due to unemployment and insufficient working hours, or their debt is unaffordable, they will reduce consumption expansion, especially for discretionary goods. As can be seen from the following two charts, the year-on-year growth rates of total working hours and non-essential goods will begin to decline continuously in the past quarters before the arrival of the economic crisis, warning of the arrival of the crisis. As of the fourth quarter of 2019, both indicators have shown a downward trend. These data and a range of other indicators we looked at show that the economic crisis was already approaching at the end of 2019.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2d1dae247273fd00fc067598efab7b4f\" tg-width=\"550\" tg-height=\"262\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/89a1d2d569ad36ff2653fd34bbbcb9ec\" tg-width=\"550\" tg-height=\"268\"></p><p><b>Second, profits take the lead in passively fighting the epidemic, which makes the epidemic out of control worse.</b>Out of our understanding of the nature of the U.S. government's service to capital, we predicted at the beginning of the outbreak that the U.S. government would put capital profits above people's health and lives, and might refuse to take necessary anti-epidemic measures that would harm profits. Passive fight against the epidemic has caused the epidemic to get out of control. As of December 19, the number of confirmed cases of COVID-19 in the United States exceeded 17.8 million, and the death toll exceeded 310,000. As the U.S. government's anti-epidemic measures continue to relax, the epidemic is getting more and more serious. At present, the daily number of confirmed cases has exceeded 250,000 (below), and the daily death toll has exceeded 3,000, which is even worse than the daily 9/11 terrorist attack (2,606 deaths). The out-of-control epidemic is not caused by the incompetence of the U.S. government as the global military hegemon, but more like a deliberate plan. After all, the vast majority of infections and deaths come from people at the bottom, especially people of color. The rich hide in luxury houses and even small islands, and have the best medical conditions in the world. If we only consider profits, even if 1 million people at the bottom (less than 0.3% of the total population) die, the loss will be smaller than shutting down the economy for two months. However, this greedy, short-sighted and cruel policy of the American ruling class has caused repeated outbreaks and intensification of the epidemic, making the economic recovery of the United States lag behind that of countries accused of the epidemic.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/47ba07e5188dd7a48630121bb33ceda1\" tg-width=\"550\" tg-height=\"222\"></p><p>(The daily number of new confirmed cases of COVID-19 patients in the United States and its 7-day average, data source: The New York Times)</p><p><b>Third, government rescue measures are heavily biased towards capital. Although the scale is unprecedented, the effect is limited.</b>Also out of our understanding of the nature of the U.S. government's service capital, we predict that the U.S. government's rescue measures will be greatly biased towards big capital rather than ordinary people. This means that the monetary policy of printing money out of thin air to save capital will be extremely loose, while the fiscal policy that requires capital to pay the bill may be sloppy and biased. Sure enough, the Federal Reserve first quickly lowered interest rates to zero in early March when the epidemic began to appear, launched an unprecedented \"unlimited quantitative easing\" monetary policy, and expanded its balance sheet by US $3 trillion within three months to save the market (picture below). At the end of March, the U.S. government launched the first round of fiscal stimulus plan of 2 trillion yuan, the largest part of which was used to rescue American enterprises (44%), only 15% subsidized American families, and 15% increased unemployment benefits. Even the relief to the American people is to ensure that the people can pay their mortgages and rents, so as not to harm the interests of American banks and homeowners. However, the relief for the American people expired at the end of July, and the U.S. Congress has been wrangling for several months to obstruct the introduction of a new round of relief plans. Loose monetary policy can boost asset markets, but history has proved to have limited effect on the real economy. However, the financial stimulus that plays a greater role in the real economy and people's livelihood, especially the effective public investment in infrastructure, science, education and welfare, is missing. The U.S. government's policies will not only create debt and asset bubbles, but also aggravate people's suffering and hinder the real recovery of the U.S. economy.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/632d4b87e4d45512790a4f708967523d\" tg-width=\"550\" tg-height=\"239\"></p><p>(Net total assets of the Federal Reserve. Gray is the economic crisis. Data source: Federal Reserve Economic Database FRED)</p><p><b>The actual data verifies our forecast that the U.S. economy is in severe decline and the recovery tends to stagnate.</b></p><p><b>First, GDP has shrunk significantly.</b>As can be seen from the figure below, U.S. GDP plummeted by 9% year-on-year under the impact of the epidemic. Despite the resumption of work at the end of April, GDP still shrank by 2.9% year-on-year in the third quarter, and forward-looking private investment shrank by 3.8% year-on-year. Subsequent data showed that the improvement tended to stagnate.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/bd4cc475fe14a0160091059bdf898b2d\" tg-width=\"550\" tg-height=\"222\"></p><p>(U.S. GDP year-on-year growth rate, data source: Federal Reserve Economic Database FRED)</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/be5b3bd52de2660ae58c5556db18cfc8\" tg-width=\"550\" tg-height=\"217\"></p><p>(Monthly year-on-year growth rate: blue is industrial production, red is actual private consumption. Data source: FRED)</p><p><b>To make matters worse, the recent recovery in production and consumption has stalled.</b>According to the latest monthly data (above), the gross industrial output shrank by 5.5% year-on-year in November, worse than in October; Real private consumption, which accounts for 70% of U.S. GDP, grew at a year-on-year rate of-1.8% in October (nearly 5 percentage points lower than the pre-epidemic growth rate). High-frequency data through December 14 shows (below) that credit card spending contracted by 4.7% compared with the same period last year, and the recovery has stalled since October.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/093623e7822b7c5a3ff823d9f402fdfe\" tg-width=\"405\" tg-height=\"264\"></p><p>(YoY 7-day average of Chase Bank credit card spending, as of December 14. Data source: JPMorgan Chase Bank)</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c775b545636006c32be575d3ed551881\" tg-width=\"550\" tg-height=\"239\"></p><p>(U.S. non-farm payrolls increased month-on-month, data source: Federal Reserve Economic Database FRED)</p><p><b>Most seriously, the improvement in employment has reversed.</b>Employment is the pillar of consumption and the most important internal driving force of economic recovery, so it is the core indicator to measure economic recovery. As can be seen from the above chart, as of early November, the month-on-month growth of non-farm payrolls in the United States has continued to slow down since May. The high-frequency data as of December 14th (below) shows that the improvement in employment has begun to reverse in the last month, and the total number of employed people has begun to decline, more than 10 million lower than that in February. This does not include the semi-unemployed population caused by the economic downturn.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/227c3e19fd3b768a13b57d197f62dcd4\" tg-width=\"433\" tg-height=\"262\"></p><p>(Total non-farm payrolls: official data (blue) vs. other data (yellow). Data source: JPMorgan Chase Bank)</p><p><b>In addition, due to the bleak economic outlook, banks continue to tighten their monetary policy despite abundant liquidity.</b>According to the bank survey data released by the Federal Reserve in November (below), in the second quarter, banks generally raised their commercial loan standards for large and medium-sized enterprises (the number of banks that raised their standards was 70 percentage points more than that that did not), and in the third quarter, most banks continued to raise their loan standards (38 percentage points more than those that did not). Similarly, after banks generally raised their personal consumption credit standards in the second quarter, most banks continued to raise their standards in the third quarter. The continuous improvement of credit standards by banks reflects that banks are increasingly pessimistic about the economic outlook, which will also lead to credit tension and affect corporate operations and consumption recovery.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e0e2a88c1f32b115bd13657865b2ee15\" tg-width=\"550\" tg-height=\"234\"></p><p>(Net proportion of banks that have raised their credit standards: commercial loans in blue and personal consumption credit in red. Data source: FRED)</p><p><b>At the same time, the life of the people at the bottom of the United States is becoming increasingly difficult, hindering economic recovery.</b>Severe unemployment, insufficient government assistance, and lack of access to borrowing make it difficult for many families in the United States to afford the most basic living needs. According to U.S. government data (below), 12.7% of American families are currently facing food shortages, and 9.1% of families lack housing security. For the most powerful country in the world, this not only reflects the extreme social injustice (it is reported that the richest class in the United States greatly increased their wealth due to government bailouts during the epidemic), but also reflects the sharp decline in the spending power of ordinary people, which will hinder economic recovery.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8aef3db6e58d10c666a84973ed058846\" tg-width=\"479\" tg-height=\"266\"></p><p>(Percentage of U.S. households facing food shortages and lack of housing security. Data source: U.S. Census Bureau)</p><p><b>(2) On the other hand, the madness of the market is unexpected.</b></p><p><b>First of all, the stock market rebounded extremely quickly and hit new highs.</b>The S&P 500 index fell nearly 30% in a month in the first quarter, then quickly rebounded, recovering lost ground and hitting a new high within six months, rising 15% this year as of December 18. The Nasdaq 100 stock index, which is mainly composed of large high-tech companies, has rebounded even more violently after falling nearly 30%, rising more than 45% this year as of December 18. In contrast, during the 2000 crisis, the S&P 500 fell by nearly 50% in two and a half years, and the Nasdaq fell by more than 75%; During the 2008 crisis, the S&P 500 fell 56% in a year and a half, while the Nasdaq fell 54%. In the 2008 crisis, it took six years for the S&P 500 to regain lost ground, while in the 2000 crisis, it took 13 years for the stock index to really recover.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8cf2e241a5358bbd56baf375d616e0af\" tg-width=\"531\" tg-height=\"282\"></p><p>(US Standard 500 and Nasdaq stock index trends. Source: Yahoo Finance)</p><p><b>In addition, the P/E of the stock market has also risen to historical highs.</b>Shiller, the Nobel Prize-winning president in economics, advocated the use of Schiller P/E (P/E), in which the denominator uses the average of the company's long-term profits (10-15 years), instead of the commonly used profits in the past or next 12 months. This can cover the entire economic cycle and better reflect the reasonable valuation of the stock market. As can be seen from the figure below, Schiller P/E (15 years) has reached 35 at the beginning of this year, significantly exceeding the levels before the stock market crashes in 1929 (27) and 2008 (29), and only lower than the level during the Internet bubble in 2000. High valuation does not mean that the stock market must plummet. For example, the current valuation of the stock market is equivalent to the level of 1998, when the stock market still rose for two years before finally collapsing. As can also be seen from the figure below, previous stock market bubbles in history have often been punctured by economic crises, and the higher the stock market valuation, the heavier the crisis, and the greater the decline. As of December 18, Schiller P/E (15 years) has risen to 39. Investment experts often defend high valuations with low interest rates and lack of alternative investment options, which we will discuss in the next section through historical data.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b7fd7fe83806353768a2e0d19ac8a536\" tg-width=\"550\" tg-height=\"246\"></p><p>(The 15-year Schiller PE of the S&P 500 in the United States, the gray part is the economic crisis. Data source dqydj.com)</p><p>meanwhile<b>, the IPO market is also in an unprecedented hot state, and it also ignores the company's fundamentals.</b>The amount of IPO financing in 2020 is close to US $150 billion, far exceeding the last peak level of US $100 billion in 1999 and 2000 (chart below). At the same time, investors seem to ignore the company's performance, and more than 80% of IPO companies are at a loss, which is similar to the peak of the Internet in 2000. For example, the recent listing of Airbnb, an Internet travel rental company whose business has been hit hard under the impact of the epidemic, not only received a valuation of US $100 billion in its IPO, but also doubled its stock price on the day of listing. This is reminiscent of the madness of investing in Internet companies in 2000.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b764c4abd0c78607d74993f9f6d1bab2\" tg-width=\"550\" tg-height=\"216\"></p><p>(U.S. IPO financing volume, unit 1 billion US dollars. Light color is SPAC, dark color is other IPO. Data source: Bloomberg)</p><p><b>The reasons behind the market madness are worth thinking about.</b>Before the current economic crisis, the valuation of the stock market was higher than before the 2008 crisis, and the degree of the crisis, whether measured by the economic downturn or unemployment, was more serious than the crises of 2000 and 2008. However, the market reacted quite differently, with a brief decline followed by a sharp rebound and constantly hitting new highs. The stock market is seriously divorced from the fundamentals. From the \"rearview mirror\", we can see that there are a series of special reasons behind it.</p><p><b>First, the market doesn't think this will be a long-lasting, deep crisis.</b>Cyclical economic crises like 2000 and 2008, which are protracted, will lead to a large number of companies closing down, and the recovery process is extremely slow. While we realized before the pandemic in the United States that the economy was already on the verge of a cyclical crisis, markets and economists tend to be hindsighted about cyclical economic crises. Therefore, they believe that this is only a temporary impact of the epidemic on the economy, and it will return to normal after the epidemic. As the epidemic worsens, they are increasingly convinced that all fundamental bad news is a temporary impact from the epidemic, rather than a structural problem in the economy.</p><p><b>Second, the Fed's \"unlimited quantification\" fueled the flames.</b>When the stock market plummeted, the Federal Reserve not only cut interest rates to zero, but also announced an \"unlimited\" quantitative easing, injecting massive liquidity into the market by expanding its balance sheet by more than $3 trillion. Even the $1,200 issued by the U.S. government to each person has become a bargaining chip for many retail investors in the stock market. As can be seen from the figure below, the total amount of M2 money in the United States increased by as much as 25% year-on-year, far exceeding the 11% at the peak of the financial crisis in 2008. Such turbulent liquidity has greatly promoted the capital market. A popular saying on Wall Street is: \"Never go against the Fed\".</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/82ee63596ffb216d1d2234190a093fd2\" tg-width=\"550\" tg-height=\"229\"></p><p>(Year-on-year growth rate of U.S. M2 currency. Gray is the recession stage. Data source: Federal Reserve Economic Database FRED)</p><p><b>Third, investors subjectively look for all reasons to support the rise of the stock market.</b>Investors who were unaware of the economic crisis, egged on by abundant liquidity, were willing to look for all reasons to explain the rationality of stock rises. This phenomenon of subjective self-rationalization can be seen from the impact of the general election on the stock market. Before the general election, the Democratic Party is expected to take all the thrones of the president and the Senate. It is explained that the Democratic government has a large stimulus and is conducive to economic recovery, so the stock market has soared. Later, Trump took the lead in votes, explaining that Trump's policy was more conducive to investors, so the stock market soared; Finally, the Democratic Party is the president, and the Republican Party has a high probability of occupying the Senate. This is explained that splitting the government and restricting each other are conducive to policy stability, and the stock market is still soaring. It can be seen that even contradictory news does not affect investors from finding reasons to push the stock market up.</p><p><b>Fourthly, the story of the new high-tech economic model brought about by the epidemic is touching.</b>In the S&P 500 industry index, the technology, consumer discretionary and communication services industries where American technology giants are located have surged by 40%, 28% and 25% respectively this year, while the energy industry directly related to the real economy has plummeted by 33% (below). If you want to form a surge in the stock market, you must have a touching story that everyone can understand. In the 1990s, the Internet changed the economic model, and the stock market would continue to rise; In the 2000s, financial innovation reduced market risks, and the stock market would continue to rise; The 2010s is a long period of low interest rates and reduced return requirements, and the stock market will continue to rise. The story of the epidemic changing human life and ushering in a high-tech future is easy to understand and full of temptation. Of course, many touching stories in the past ended with the stock market crash. Will \"this time is different\"-which is known as the most expensive words in financial history-really come true this time?</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ffc959c59156fb3c546594aee45347e2\" tg-width=\"550\" tg-height=\"241\"></p><p>(The trend of the US S&P 500 industry stock index this year, data source: Yahoo Finance)</p><p><b>Fifth, retail investors flocked to incite the market.</b>This story is so simple that all small investors can understand and agree with it. According to reports, in the United States, which has always been dominated by institutional investors, personal trading accounts and trading activities have increased sharply after the outbreak of the epidemic. Although retail investors have a small amount of funds, they often use derivatives as leverage, so they can incite larger funds and have an excessive impact on the market.</p><p><b>Sixth, digitalization and passive trading have also intensified the market's trend of following suit.</b>Digital trading and passive investing have developed rapidly in the United States in the past 20 years and have grown into the mainstream in recent years. Passive investment does not analyze the fundamentals and buys and sells according to the market direction. Quantitative strategies often focus on short-term trends and can rarely make correct judgments on long-term macro trends. Moreover, the trading logic is mostly similar, resulting in convergence of trading directions. The development of these trading strategies has exacerbated the separation between the market and fundamentals.</p><p><b>The above series of phenomena are actually classic characteristics of market bubbles.</b>Investors who are unaware of the risk of the crisis, driven by the huge liquidity of the Federal Reserve, are looking for all reasons to support the rise of the stock market. They are impressed by a touching story, which drives countless retail investors to flock to it. Coupled with digitalization and passive trading, they encourage follow-up investment. All this leads to the inevitable breeding of bubbles, and the stock market will deviate further and further from the fundamentals. However, history has proved that dignified reality will eventually pull the stock market back to the ground.</p><p><b>The biggest lesson taught us in 2020 is to learn the old Wall Street saying again: \"The market can remain irrational longer than you can.\"</b>The market can stay irrational longer than you can stay solvent. When the market bubble is serious, shorting the market against the current will eventually win, but it may suffer heavy losses for a long period of time.</p><p><b>2. Looking forward to 2021: The outlook is uncertain and the risks are full</b></p><p><b>Looking forward to 2021, a series of optimistic assumptions supporting the stock market cannot be guaranteed to be fully realized, and the risk of bubble bursting cannot be ignored.</b>If the following situations happen, the market will make corresponding adjustments, and even cause the stock market to fall sharply in serious cases.</p><p><b>First, the economic crisis</b>: Even if the epidemic is accused, the crisis may not yet be cleared, and it is difficult for profits to grow rapidly. Demand in the United States was weak before the epidemic and was on the verge of a cyclical economic crisis with relative overproduction, and the epidemic further weakened demand. Even if the epidemic is accused, when a large number of workers lose their jobs and corporate finances are weakened, it will be difficult for consumption and investment demand to recover quickly, and it will be difficult for corporate profits to grow rapidly. What's more, this extreme imbalance between supply and demand usually requires large-scale destruction of capital and production capacity in the form of crisis to reduce supply before it can be cleared, so that the remaining strong companies can restart profitable growth and start a new round of economic cycle. According to Bloomberg data, during the economic crisis from January 2008 to June 2009, a total of 370 companies with debts of more than $50 million in the United States closed down. Since the total debt of non-financial companies in the United States (US $31.2 trillion) has doubled that of 2008 (US $15.4 trillion), the number of companies with debt of more than US $50 million should increase significantly compared with 2008. Therefore, to destroy the same proportion of capital and production capacity, the number of bankrupt companies needs to significantly exceed the 370 in the 2008 crisis. By contrast, as of December 12, only 236 companies with debt size of more than $50 million have failed this year under the unprecedented bailout of the U.S. government. This means that a large number of business closures may still be needed to truly clear the economy. Therefore, the economic crisis may not really end.</p><p><b>Second, the epidemic development</b>: The government's negativity has caused the epidemic to get out of control, and the prospect after the vaccine is released is not yet completely clear. Investment expects that after the vaccine is released, the epidemic situation in the United States can be controlled quickly, normal life can be basically restored, and consumer demand can be released. However, the epidemic situation in the United States is extremely serious, and the diagnosis rate per unit population far exceeds that of other western countries (see the chart below). In addition, due to the misleading propaganda of right-wing politicians such as Trump, many people don't believe in the harmfulness of Novel Coronavirus. Many people who believe in the harmfulness have doubts about the safety of vaccines hastily launched by the government and drug dealers, so most Americans are unwilling to accept vaccines. At the same time, due to the need for ultra-low temperature storage of vaccines in the United States, transportation and distribution are difficult. In this way, it is uncertain when the epidemic will be charged. The longer it drags on, the more companies close down, the worse the financial situation of businesses and individuals, and the more difficult it is for workers to get back into employment, the deeper the long-term impact of the pandemic on economic vitality may be, and the more difficult it will be to recover.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/22992bcf89dd59641632c49c9e0e6a2d\" tg-width=\"510\" tg-height=\"322\"></p><p>(Number of confirmed cases of COVID-19 per 100,000 population: US dark red, EU dark green, Canada red, Japan green, South Korea pink)</p><p><b>Third, government policy: it is difficult to play a sufficient role in truly reversing the economic downturn.</b>On the one hand, although fiscal policy can better alleviate the problem of insufficient demand and promote economic recovery, American capital is unwilling to pay for public investment and social welfare, and its implementation faces many political obstacles. For example, although the scale of the new round of fiscal rescue plan has been reduced from the expected 1.5 trillion US dollars to 900 billion US dollars, it is still wrangled in Congress and has not yet been passed, and the effective infrastructure plan in boosting the economy is even missing. On the other hand, although the ultra-loose monetary policy can support the breeding of asset bubbles, the long-term practice results of the United States, Japan and the European Union have proved that it has a limited effect on the real economy, and it will aggravate the polarization between the rich and the poor, worsen the imbalance between investment and demand, aggravate the economic crisis and cause bubble bursting.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/555a11dee2888ad473cb3cfc2b6fa7ba\" tg-width=\"550\" tg-height=\"240\"></p><p>(Red is the Dow Jones stock index, blue is the 3-month Treasury Bond interest rate, red is the AAA corporate bond yield, and gray is the economic crisis)</p><p>Federal Reserve Chairman Powell recently stated that interest rates will be kept low for a long time. At the same time, he agreed with the mainstream view of the market, saying that the high valuation of the stock market is reasonable in a long-term low interest rate environment. But the historical data is not so optimistic: as can be seen from the above chart, after the Great Depression of 1929, from 1934 to 1945, the interest rate in the United States was low for a long time, the 3-month Treasury Bond was always below 0.5%, and the yield of corporate bonds also dropped to about 3% in 1937. The Dow Jones stock index nearly doubled between 1934 and 1937, but it didn't last long. In 1937, the cyclical economic crisis broke out again. The stock market plummeted by nearly 40% in one year, and then fluctuated down by 15% in four years. It seems that the low interest rate environment can't guarantee the long-term prosperity of the stock market. When it rises depends on whether the economy will be in deep crisis.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/16bb84f7a4f42a58dcb8db7f9a133078\" tg-width=\"550\" tg-height=\"231\"></p><p>(Total consumer credit in the United States. Data source: Federal Reserve Economic Database FRED)</p><p><b>Fourth, debt risk: the personal debt of enterprises is high, and the risk of debt crisis accumulates sharply.</b>First of all, at present, the level of corporate lending and personal consumption debt has far exceeded the level on the eve of the 2008 subprime mortgage crisis. As can be seen from the above chart, the total amount of consumer credit in the United States has been growing in recent years, an increase of 62% compared with before the 2008 crisis. The figure below shows that the leverage ratio of non-financial companies in the United States has now risen to twice that before the 2008 crisis. What's more, the data shows that the current scale of subprime mortgage is higher than before the subprime mortgage crisis. The circulation of BBB-rated bonds, the lowest grade of investment-grade corporate bonds, has been soaring in the past 10 years. By 2019, it has tripled that of the eve of the subprime mortgage crisis, while the proportion of low-rated corporate bonds has risen from less than 20% in 2008 to nearly 40%, doubled. Bloomberg reports show that in 2020, under the impact of the epidemic and the release of water by the Federal Reserve, the issuance of junk bonds in the United States hit a record. Under the current severe economic situation, the risk of debt crisis cannot be ignored. If the debt crisis is transmitted to the financial system and causes a financial crisis, the consequences will be even more unimaginable.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8a4ab5853e27eeca6d818bd4841f82cf\" tg-width=\"550\" tg-height=\"234\"></p><p>(Leverage ratio of U.S. non-financial companies. Data source: Federal Reserve Economic Database)</p><p><b>All in all, in 2020, the U.S. stock market will soar wildly due to the aforementioned reasons under the bleak economic background, but the outlook for 2021 is not so optimistic. It is difficult to guarantee that a series of premises and assumptions supporting the stock market will all be realized, and the numerous risks that may trigger bubble bursting cannot be ignored.</b></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> source：<a href=\"http://finance.sina.com.cn/zl/authority/2020-12-30/zl-iiznezxs9753548.shtml\">新浪财经</a></p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/41f81b99b97a59da55dd70fd1af475cb","relate_stocks":{".SPX":"S&P 500 Index","SPY":"标普500ETF",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite",".DJI":"道琼斯"},"source_url":"http://finance.sina.com.cn/zl/authority/2020-12-30/zl-iiznezxs9753548.shtml","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1154691529","content_text":"一、回顾2020，经济惨淡市场疯狂\n回顾2020，我们正确预测了美国经济颓废走势，然而市场的疯狂却出乎意料。\n（一）一方面，我们的分析正确预测了经济的颓废走势。\n我们分析的主要依据，首先是美国经济原本就处于周期性经济危机边缘，其次美国政府消极抗疫导致疫情失控对经济更是雪上加霜，最后国家救助措施虽然规模空前，但其偏向性和局限性限制了有效程度。这都严重阻碍了美国的经济复苏。具体来讲：\n\n（美国中小银行信用卡拖欠率。灰色为经济危机。数据来源：美联储经济数据库）\n首先，美国经济体在去年底已经相当脆弱，正在逐步走向下一次周期性经济危机。尽管年初美国主流机构经济学家普遍看好美国经济发展，我们却不以为然。周期性经济危机爆发的根源在于民众受限制的消费。民众工资增长低迷，不得不依靠借债去维持消费增长。但借钱消费不可持续，导致民众有限的购买力不足以吸收持续扩张的供给，形成生产的相对过剩。产品积压导致企业利润率下降，而当利润率下滑到一定地步，企业便会开始降低投资、削减工时，甚至开始裁员。但这会进一步降低投资和消费需求，供过于求会变得更加严重，导致企业利润进一步下滑，因而陷入恶性循环，最终引发经济危机。从上图可见，截至2019年第四季度，美国中小银行（其底层客户较多，对经济更加敏感）信用卡拖欠率已经超过2000和2008年危机前水平，显示消费增长已难以再靠借债支撑。下图显示，历史上企业利润率下滑到一定地步往往便会引发经济危机，而去年已经接近这一水平。\n\n其他有效领先指标，包括工作时间和非必需消费增长，同样指向经济危机。当企业利润下降时，无论是缩短工人工作时间，还是裁减人员，都会压缩工作总小时数。而民众因失业和工时不足而收入下降，或者债务难以负担之时，便会减少消费扩张，尤其是非必需品。以下两张图表可见，工作总小时数和非必需品的同比增长率，在过去经济危机到来前若干个季度都会开始持续下降，预警危机到来。截至2019年第四季度，这两个指标均已显示出下滑趋势。这些数据和我们观察的其他一系列指标显示，经济危机在2019年底已经在步步逼近。\n\n第二，利润当先消极抗疫，疫情失控雪上加霜。出于对美国政府服务资本这一本质的理解，我们在疫情爆发之初便预计美国政府将把资本利润置于民众健康和生命之上，可能会拒不采取有损利润的必要抗疫措施。消极抗疫导致疫情失控，截至12月19日美国新冠确诊人数超过1780万，死亡人数超过31万。随着美国政府抗疫措施不断松懈，疫情一波比一波严重，目前每日确诊人数已经超过25万（下图），每日死亡人数超过3000人，比每天一次911恐怖袭击事件（死亡2606人）还要糟糕。疫情失控并非是作为全球军事霸主的美国政府无能所致，而更像是蓄意的谋划。毕竟被感染和死亡的绝大部分来自底层民众，特别是有色人种，富人则躲在豪宅甚至小岛之上，并且拥有世界最佳的医疗条件。如果仅从利润考虑，即使死掉100万人底层民众（不到总人口的0.3%），也比把经济关闭2个月损失要小。但美国统治阶级这一贪婪、短视和残酷的政策，却使疫情反复爆发且愈演愈烈，使得美国经济复苏滞后于疫情被控的国家。\n\n（美国新冠患者每日新确诊人数及其7日平均，数据来源《纽约时报》）\n第三，政府救助措施严重偏向资本，虽然规模空前但效果受限。同样是出于对美国政府服务资本这一本质的认识，我们预测了美国政府的救助措施将极大偏向大资本，而非普通民众。这意味着凭空印钱去拯救资本的货币政策将会极为宽松，而需要资本买单的财政政策则可能拖泥带水，而且偏向性明显。果不其然，美联储在疫情初显的3月初便首先迅速将利率迅速降低至零点，并且推出了空前的“无限量化宽松”货币政策，并在3个月内扩表3万亿美元拯救市场（下图）。3月末，美国政府推出2万亿首轮财政刺激计划，而其中最大部分用于救助美国企业（44%），仅15%补贴美国家庭，15%加大失业救济。即使对美国民众的救济，也是考虑到要保障百姓能够支付房贷和房租，以免损害美国银行和房主利益。然而，对美国民众的救济在7月底已经过期，美国国会已经扯皮数月，阻挠新一轮救济计划出台。宽松的货币政策可以推动资产市场，但历史证明对实体经济却效果有限。而对实体经济和民生作用更大的财政刺激，特别是行之有效的基建、科教和福利等的公共投资，更是渺无踪影。美国政府的政策，将在制造债务和资产泡沫的同时，加剧民众苦难，阻碍美国经济的真正复苏。\n\n（美联储净总资产。灰色为经济危机。数据来源：美联储经济数据库FRED）\n实际数据验证了我们的预测，美国经济严重下滑，并且复苏趋于停滞。\n首先，GDP严重萎缩。由下图可见，在疫情打击下美国GDP同比暴跌9%。尽管4月底已经开始复工，到第三季度GDP依然同比萎缩2.9%，具有前瞻性的私人投资同比萎缩3.8%，而之后的数据显示改善趋于停滞。\n\n（美国GDP同比增长率，数据来源：美联储经济数据库FRED）\n\n（月度同比增长率：蓝色为工业生产，红色为实际私人消费。数据来源：FRED）\n更糟糕的是，近期生产和消费复苏均趋于停滞状态。最新月度数据显示（上图），工业生产总值在11月份同比萎缩5.5%，比10月份还糟；而占美国GDP 70%的实际私人消费10月份同比增长率为-1.8%（比疫情前增长速度低5近个百分点）。截至12月14日的高频数据显示（下图），信用卡消费与去年同期相比萎缩4.7%，并且从10月份开始复苏出现停滞。\n\n（美国大通银行信用卡消费同比7天平均值，截至12月14日。数据来源：摩根大通银行）\n\n（美国非农就业人数环比增长，数据来源：美联储经济数据库FRED）\n最为严重的是，就业改善出现逆转。就业是消费的支柱，是经济复苏最主要内在动力，因此是衡量经济复苏的核心指标。由上图可见，截至11月上旬，美国非农就业环比增长自5月份以来持续放缓。而截至12月14日的高频数据显示（下图），最近一个月就业改善开始逆转，总就业人数开始下滑，比2月份降低超过1000万人，这还不包括因经济不景气而造成的半失业人口。\n\n（非农就业总人数：官方数据（蓝）与其他数据（黄）。数据来源：摩根大通银行）\n此外，由于经济前景黯淡，银行在充沛的流动性下，却继续收紧银根。美联储11月份发布的银行调研数据显示（下图），第二季度银行普遍对大中型企业提高商业贷款标准（提高标准的银行数量比未提高的要多出70个百分点），第三季度绝大部分银行在继续提高贷款标准（提高标准的比未提高的多38个百分点）。与此类似，银行在第二季度普遍提高个人消费信贷标准之后，大部分银行在第三季度继续提高标准。银行不断提高信贷标准，反映了银行对经济前景越来越悲观，也会导致信用紧张，影响公司运作和消费复苏。\n\n（提高信用标准的银行净比例：蓝色为商业贷款，红色为个人消费信贷。数据来源：FRED）\n同时，美国底层民众生活日益困难，阻碍经济复苏。严重失业、政府救助不足，再加上借贷无门，导致美国众多家庭难以负担最基本的生活需要。美国政府数据显示（下图），目前有12.7%的美国家庭面临食物短缺，9.1%的家庭缺乏住房保障。对于全球最强大的国家来说，这不仅反映了社会的极度不公（据报道美国最富有阶层在疫情期间由于政府救助而财富大增），而且体现了普通民众消费能力的大幅下降，这将会阻碍经济复苏。\n\n（美国面临食物短缺和缺乏住房保障的家庭比例。数据来源：美国人口普查局）\n（二）另一方面，市场的疯狂出乎意料。\n首先，股市反弹异常迅速，并且连创新高。标普500指数在第一季度一个月之内下跌近30%，然后迅速反弹，6个月内便收复失地且再创新高，截至12月18日今年上涨15%。主要由高科技大公司组成的纳斯达克100股指，在下跌近30%后，反弹更加猛烈，截至12月18日今年上涨超过45%。相比之下，2000年危机，标普500在两年半期间下跌近50%，纳斯达克下跌则超过75%；2008危机，标普500在一年半期间下跌56%，纳斯达克则下跌54%。2008年危机，标普500在6年之后才收复失地，而2000年危机，股指则在13年后才真正恢复。\n\n（美国标500和纳斯达克股指走势。数据来源：雅虎金融）\n此外，股市的市盈率也上升到历史高位。诺贝尔经济学奖得主席勒（Shiller）倡导使用席勒市盈率（P/E），其中分母使用公司长期盈利的平均值（10-15年），取代常用的过去或者未来12个月的盈利。这样可以覆盖整个经济周期，更好反映股市的合理估值。由下图可见，在今年年初席勒P/E（15年）已经高达35，显著超过1929年（27）和2008年（29）大股灾前的水平，仅低于2000年互联网泡沫时的水平。高估值并不意味着股市一定要大跌，例如目前股市估值相当于1998年水平，那时股市依然大涨了两年才最终崩溃。从下图也可以看出，史上历次股市泡沫往往是被经济危机刺破，而且股市估值越高，危机程度越重，下跌幅度就越大。截至12月18日，席勒P/E（15年）已经上升到39。投资专家往往用利率低迷缺乏其他投资选择来为高估值辩护，我们在下节会通过历史数据进行商榷。\n\n（美国标普500的15年席勒PE，灰色部分为经济危机。数据来源dqydj.com）\n同时，IPO市场也处于空前火热状态，而且同样无视公司基本面。2020年IPO融资量接近1500亿美元，远远超过上次高峰1999和2000年的1000亿美元水平（下图）。与此同时，投资人似乎不计公司业绩，有超过80%的IPO公司处于亏损状态，这一比率也与2000年互联网巅峰时相近。例如近日Airbnb的上市，这一在疫情冲击下业务受到沉重打击的互联网旅游租房公司，不仅在IPO中获得1000亿美元估值，而且上市当天股价翻倍。这让人不禁想起2000年投资互联网公司的疯狂。\n\n（美国IPO融资量，单位10亿美元。浅色为SPAC，深色为其他IPO。数据来源：彭博）\n市场疯狂背后的原因值得思考。本轮经济危机之前，股市估值比2008年危机前还高，而且危机程度不论是以经济下滑还是人员失业来衡量，都比2000年和2008年危机更为严重。然而，市场的反应却大相径庭，短暂下滑之后便剧烈反弹并不断创立新高。股市与基本面严重脱离，从“后视镜”中我们可以看到背后有一系列特别原因。\n首先，市场并不认为这将是一场持久、深度的危机。2000和2008年那样的周期性经济危机，旷日持久，会导致大批公司倒闭，而且复苏过程极为缓慢。虽然我们在美国疫情之前就意识到经济已经处于周期性危机的边缘，但市场和经济学家往往对周期性经济危机后知后觉。因此，他们认为这仅是一场疫情对经济的暂时冲击，疫情过后便会恢复常态。随着疫情愈发加重，他们越来越相信一切基本面的坏消息都是疫情的暂时冲击，而非经济出现结构性问题。\n第二，美联储“无限量化”推波助澜。美联储在股市大跌之时不仅降息至零点，而且宣布“无限量”量化宽松，通过扩表超过3万亿美元，为市场注入海量流动性。连美国政府给每人发放的1200美元也成为许多散户在股市上一搏的筹码。由下图可见，美国M2货币总量同比增长高达25%，远超过2008年金融危机高峰的11%。这样汹涌的流动性，对资本市场起到了巨大的推动作用。华尔街流行的一句话是：“永远不要和美联储作对”。\n\n（美国M2货币同比增长率。灰色为经济衰退阶段。数据来源：美联储经济数据库FRED）\n第三，投资人主观寻找一切理由支持股市上涨。本来就对经济危机毫无察觉的投资人，在充沛流动性的怂恿下，愿意寻找一切理由来解释股票上涨的合理性。从大选对股市的影响中就可以看出这种主观自我合理化的现象。民主党在大选前有望通吃总统和参院宝座，解释为民主党政府刺激幅度大、有利经济复苏，于是股市大涨。特朗普后来选票领先，解释为特朗普政策更有利于投资人，于是股市大涨；最后是民主党当总统，共和党大概率占参院，解释为分裂政府互相制约利于政策稳定，股市依然大涨。可见即使是互相矛盾的消息，也不影响投资人找到理由推动股市上涨。\n第四，疫情带来高科技新经济模式故事动人。标普500行业指数中，美国科技巨头所在的科技、非必需消费和通讯服务行业，今年分别暴涨40%、28%和25%，而与实体经济直接相关的能源行业则暴跌33%（下图）。要想形成股市狂涨大潮，一定要有所有人都听得懂的动人故事。1990年代是互联网改变经济模式，股市将持续上涨；2000年代是金融创新降低市场风险，股市将持续上涨；2010年代是长期低息降低回报要求，股市将持续上涨。疫情改变人类生活，迎来高科技未来的故事，简单易懂，充满诱惑。当然，从前多少动人故事都以股灾结束，“这次不同”--这被誉为金融史上最昂贵的四个字--这次真会实现吗？\n\n（美国标普500行业股指今年走势，数据来源：雅虎金融）\n第五，散户蜂拥而上撬动市场。这个故事简单到所有小股民都能理解和认同。据报道，一贯以机构投资者占统治地位的美国，个人交易账户和交易活动在疫情爆发之后剧增。散户投资者虽然资金量不大，但往往使用衍生品做杠杆，因此可以撬动较大资金，对市场造成超出比例的影响。\n第六，数字化和被动交易，也加剧了市场的跟风趋势。数字化交易和被动投资在过去20年在美国发展迅速，在近年已经成长为主流。被动投资对基本面不做分析，跟随市场方向买卖。而量化策略则往往注重短期趋势，鲜能对长期宏观走势做出正确判断，而且交易逻辑大多相近，导致交易方向趋同。这些交易策略的发展，加剧了市场与基本面的脱离。\n以上的一系列现象，其实都是市场泡沫的经典特征。对危机风险毫无察觉的投资人，在联储巨大流动性推动下，寻找一切支持股市上涨的理由，被一个动人的故事所折服，带动无数散户蜂拥而上，再加上数字化和被动交易助长跟风投资。这一切都导致泡沫的滋生在所难免，股市会背离基本面越来越远。然而历史证明，凝重的现实终究会将股市拉回地面。\n2020年给我们最大的教训，是再次学习了华尔街的那句老话：“市场保持非理性的时间能比你可以支撑的时间更长”（The market can stay irrational longer than you can stay solvent）。在市场泡沫严重的情况下逆流做空市场，虽然最终或将获胜，但在相当长的时期内可能会损失惨重。\n二、展望2021：前景不定风险四伏\n展望2021，支撑股市的一系列乐观假设难保完全实现，泡沫破碎的风险不可忽视。如果以下情况发生，市场便会做出相应调整，情况严重的话甚至会造成股市大幅下行。\n第一，经济危机：即使疫情被控，危机可能尚未出清，利润难以高速增长。美国在疫情之前便需求疲软，处于生产相对过剩的周期性经济危机边缘，而疫情进一步减弱了需求。即使疫情被控，在工人大批失业、企业财政削弱的情况下，消费和投资需求也难以迅速恢复，公司利润便难以高速增长。更为严重的是，这种供需极端不平衡，通常需要以危机形式大规模摧毁资本和产能以降低供给才能出清，使得剩下的强壮公司能够重新开始盈利增长，开始新一轮经济周期。根据彭博数据，2008年1月至2009年6月经济危机期间，美国总共有370家债务规模在5000万美元以上的企业倒闭。由于目前美国非金融公司负债总量（31.2万亿美元）已经增长到2008年（15.4万亿美元）的两倍，负债在5000万美元以上的公司数量比2008年应会显著增加。因此，要摧毁同样比例的资本和产能，破产公司的数目需要显著超过2008年危机的370家。相比之下，截至12月12日，在美国政府的空前巨款救助下，债务规模在5000万美元以上的公司今年只有236家倒闭。这意味着可能依然需要大批企业倒闭才能使经济真正出清。因此，经济危机可能并未真正结束。\n第二，疫情发展：政府消极导致疫情失控，疫苗出笼之后的前景尚未完全明朗。投资预期疫苗出笼后美国疫情可以较快得以控制，正常生活可以基本恢复，消费需求得以释放。然而，美国疫情异常严重，单位人口确诊率远超过其他西方国家（见下图）。此外，由于特朗普等右翼政客的误导宣传，许多民众不相信新冠病毒的危害性。而那些相信危害性的民众，又有不少对政府和药商仓促推出的疫苗的安全性存在质疑，因此有大部分美国人表示不愿接受疫苗。同时，由于美国疫苗需要超低温存储，运输和分配都存在较大困难。这样看来，疫情何时能够被控还不确定。时间拖得越长，公司倒闭越多，企业和个人财政状况越恶化，工人重新就业越困难，疫情对经济活力的长期影响就可能越深，复苏就越困难。\n\n（每10万人口新冠确诊数目：美国深红，欧盟深绿，加拿大红色，日本绿色，韩国粉色）\n第三，政府政策：难以起到足够作用真正扭转经济颓势。一方面，财政政策虽然可以较好缓解需求不足问题推动经济复苏，但美国资本不愿为公共投资和社会福利买单，实施面临重重政治阻力。例如新一轮的财政救助计划，虽然规模由预期的1.5万亿美元降低到9000亿美元，但依然在国会扯皮尚未通过，而对经济提振行之有效的基建计划更是渺无踪影。另一方面，超宽松货币政策虽然可以支撑资产泡沫滋生，但美日欧盟的长期实践结果证明对实体经济作用有限，而且会加剧贫富分化，恶化投资和需求的不平衡，加剧经济危机而引发泡沫破裂。\n\n（红色为道琼斯股指，蓝色为3月期国债利率，红色为AAA级企债收益率，灰色为经济危机）\n美联储主席鲍威尔近期表示将长期保持利率低迷，同时他赞同市场主流观点，表示长期低利率环境下股市高估值合理。但历史数据却没有这么乐观：由上图可见，在1929年大萧条后，从1934年到1945年间，美国利率长期低迷，3月期国债一直在0.5%以下，而企债收益率也在1937年降到了3%左右。道琼斯股指在1934至1937年间大涨近一倍，但好景不长。1937年周期性经济危机再度爆发，股市在一年内暴跌近40%，后来4年震荡下行15%。看来低息环境并不能保障股市长盛不衰，涨到何时要看经济是否会深陷危机。\n\n（美国消费信贷总量。数据来源：美联储经济数据库FRED）\n第四，债务风险：企业个人债台高筑，债务危机风险急剧累积。首先，目前企业借贷和个人消费负债程度已经远超过2008次贷危机前夕水平。由上图可见，美国消费信贷总量近年不断增长，比2008年危机前增加了62%。而下图显示，美国非金融公司的杠杆率目前已经上升到2008年危机前的2倍。更为严重的是，数据显示目前次贷规模比次贷危机前还要高。投资级企债最低档的BBB级债券的发行量过去10年不断飙升，到2019年已经是次贷危机前夕3倍，而低评级公司债的占比由2008年的不到20%上升到近40%，翻了一番。彭博报道显示，2020年在疫情冲击和美联储放水作用下，美国垃圾债发行量创历时记录。在目前经济形势严峻的情况下，债务危机风险不可忽视。如果债务危机传导到金融系统引发金融危机，那后果将更加不堪设想。\n\n（美国非金融公司杠杆率。数据来源：美联储经济数据库）\n总而言之，2020年美国股市在惨淡经济背景下由于前述原因疯狂暴涨，但2021年前景并不那么乐观，支撑股市的一系列前提假设难保全部实现，可能引发泡沫破裂的重重风险不可忽视。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"SPY":0.9,".IXIC":0.9,".DJI":0.9,".SPX":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2035,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0}],"lives":[]}