探索61 personal page - To The Moon

探索61

探索61

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2021-06-15

Sad sad sad

2021-03-30

Sad day today

2021-03-24

My dear......

2021-03-07

pooooook gai v2.0

2021-03-02

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2021-06-14

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2021-02-26

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2021-02-24

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2021-03-03

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13:45","market":"sh","language":"zh","title":"The trap that made Buffett stumble many times, be careful","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1187811778","media":"虎嗅APP","summary":"巴菲特不止一次栽在航空股上。1988年买入US Air，割肉离场；2007年巴菲特反省说“最坏的行业是那些增长迅速但很难赚钱的行业，比如航空”；2013年说“对投资者来说，航空业是致命陷阱”；不料20","content":"<p><html><head></head><body>Buffett has fallen on airline stocks more than once.</p><p>In 1988, he bought US Air, cut the meat and left the market; In 2007, Buffett reflected that \"the worst industries are those that grow rapidly but are difficult to make money, such as aviation\"; In 2013, it was said that \"for investors, the aviation industry is a fatal trap\"; Unexpectedly, in 2016, he bought the stocks of the four major airlines in the United States in large quantities, claiming that \"I can't see which one is more prominent\"; In February 2020, when the aviation industry was in turmoil, Buffett bought a large number of airline stocks and vowed not to sell them, but he \"cut the meat\" in early May and suffered heavy losses.</p><p>Over the past decades, the aviation industry has experienced countless \"baptisms\", and no ordinary people have survived. passenger load factor has remained at a high level, with strong cost control capabilities and good cash flow. The epidemic will always pass. Even the \"stock god\" can hardly resist the temptation to buy at the darkest moment of the aviation industry and wait for the recovery.</p><p>Affected by the epidemic, China's total civil aviation turnover in 2022 will only be 46.3% of that in 2019; The annual passenger traffic was 250 million passengers, 38.1% of 2019. January 31, 2023,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/601111\">Air China</a>(60111. SH),<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/CEA\">Eastern Airlines</a>(600115. SH) and<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/ZNH\">Southern Airlines</a>(600029. SH) also released the \"Annual Business Forecast\". Air China's annual deduction of non-losses is 37.2 billion to 39.9 billion, China Eastern Airlines is expected to lose 36.8 billion to 39.8 billion, and China Southern Airlines is expected to lose 30.9 billion to 34.1 billion. The three major airlines will lose 104.9 billion to 113.8 billion in 2022.</p><p>Since 2020, the non-net losses of the three major airlines have accumulated between 187.2 billion and 196.1 billion, with an average of 64 billion each. The \"loss king\" of A-shares is none other than the three major airlines.</p><p>Nearly 200 billion losses, where did the money go? Which one is more resilient? Is the \"reversal of adversity\" worth a blog?</p><p><b>The \"three-legged confrontation\" situation has been broken</b></p><p><b>1) The revenue gap is widening</b></p><p>In 2019, the revenue of the three major airlines all hit record highs: China Southern Airlines ranked first with 154.3 billion, followed by Air China with 136.2 billion, and China Eastern Airlines was at the bottom with 120.9 billion.</p><p>Under the influence of the epidemic, the \"three major airlines\" are divided:</p><p>China Southern Airlines has the strongest resilience, and its revenue in 2021 will still exceed 100 billion, equivalent to 66% of 2019; Revenue in the first three quarters of 2022 will be 70.2 billion, equivalent to 64% of the same period in 2019;</p><p>The trajectories of Air China and China Eastern Airlines are exactly the same: revenue in 2020 fell to 50% of that in 2019; In 2021, it will rise to 55% of 2019; The first three quarters of 2022 were 41% of the same period in 2019.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5d3ab709933f9d2dd5510e20a87c6881\" tg-width=\"927\" tg-height=\"588\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p>In 2019, the revenue of Air China and China Eastern Airlines was equivalent to 88.2% and 78.3% of China Southern Airlines respectively; In the first three quarters of 2022, Air China and China Eastern Airlines accounted for 60% and 51% of China Southern Airlines respectively. The \"three-legged confrontation\" situation has been temporarily broken, and whether the balance can be restored after the epidemic deserves attention.</p><p><b>2) Earn 6 years and \"can't stand it\" and lose 1 year</b></p><p>The loss of the civil aviation industry can be described as a \"bottomless pit\", with annual profits of only a few billion and losses of tens of billions. Taking Air China as an example, the total non-net profit deducted from 2014 to 2020 will be 35.5 billion, and the loss in 2022 will be no less than 37.2 billion. The money earned in 6 years will be less than the loss in 1 year.</p><p>Relatively speaking, Air China's profitability is the strongest: non-net profit was 7.2 billion in 2017, 6.6 billion in 2018, and fell to 6.2 billion in 2019. After the epidemic began, Air China's losses have increased year by year: 14.7 billion in 2020, 17.1 billion in 2021, and more than 37 billion in 2022.</p><p>The profit decline of China Eastern Airlines is the most obvious: the peak was in 2017, and the non-net profit was 4.5 billion; It dropped sharply to 1.9 billion in 2018; In 2019, the epidemic has not yet occurred, and China Eastern Airlines has already lost 590 million; The loss in 2020 is 12.7 billion, the loss in 2021 is 13.5 billion, and the loss in 2022 is about 37 billion, which is equivalent to Air China.</p><p>China Southern Airlines is relatively stable: the non-net profit will be 5.2 billion in 2017, and the loss will not exceed 34 billion in 2022.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/fd2f5102e745a16ff6dd125b1fc59b40\" tg-width=\"940\" tg-height=\"555\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p>Extending the time scale, Air China is the best performer. From 2014 to 2019, the total non-net profit deducted in six years was 35.5 billion; Since the epidemic, the loss has not exceeded 71.7 billion. From 2014 to 2022, the eight-year profit and loss will offset a net loss of 36 billion. During the same period, China Southern Airlines had a net loss of 40 billion yuan and China Eastern Airlines had a net loss of 55 billion yuan.</p><p><b>Aviation stocks are also cyclical. In the current full cycle, the total profit will be far less than the total loss.</b></p><p><b>3) Cash flow from operating activities \"lost\"</b></p><p>When the epidemic broke out in 2020, the three major airlines all fell into huge losses. However, Air China and China Eastern Airlines will keep the \"line of defense\" of cash flow from operating activities until 2021.</p><p>In 2021, Air China and China Eastern Airlines will lose 17.1 billion and 13.5 billion respectively, but the net inflow from operating activities will remain positive, at 12.9 billion and 5.7 billion respectively. In 2022, Air China and China Eastern Airlines will finally \"break their achievements\", with cash flows from operating activities of negative 4.9 billion and negative 260 million respectively. Fortunately, the proportion of revenue is not high, with Air China accounting for 11.6% and China Eastern Airlines only 0.7%.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8fe69b8f21230f1cf352f39efa362056\" tg-width=\"947\" tg-height=\"607\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p>China Southern Airlines' cash flow from operating activities has always been positive, with a loss of 12.6 billion in 2021 and a positive operating cash flow of 13.4 billion. In the first three quarters of 2022, the loss was 18.3 billion, and the operating cash flow was positive 7.3 billion, equivalent to 10.4% of revenue.</p><p>The most difficult moment for the aviation industry has passed, and the cash flow of the three major aviation operating activities in 2023 is likely to \"turn positive\".</p><p><b>4) Transportation capacity investment is based on prediction and represents confidence</b></p><p>If the land reserve reflects the developer's prediction of the market, the airline capacity investment is based on the expectation of the prosperity of the industry. In the future, the number of flights, personnel arrangements, flight increases or decreases... all need to be planned and reported in advance.</p><p>In 2019, air passenger transport was \"in full swing\", and the investment in the three major aviation operations reached its peak. Among them, the available passenger kilometers (ASK) of China Southern Airlines reached 344 billion passenger kilometers, while Air China and China Eastern Airlines had 288 billion passenger kilometers and 270 billion passenger kilometers respectively.</p><p>In 2020, the situation took a sharp turn for the worse, and all three major air transport capacities were cut in half. The theme of 2021 is \"wait and see\", and the operation launch is the same as in 2020. China Southern Airlines, Air China, and China Eastern Airlines have 214 billion passenger kilometers, 152 billion passenger kilometers, and 161 billion passenger kilometers respectively.</p><p>In H1 of 2022, the three major airlines will differentiate. Air China and China Eastern Airlines \"can't afford to lose\", while China Southern Airlines' confidence is \"strong\". In the first half of the year, Air China's available passenger seat kilometers were 44 billion, only 31% of H1 2019. China Eastern Airlines' available passenger seat kilometers were 34% of the same period in 2019.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d122738f6a7010658a48787fefb50697\" tg-width=\"953\" tg-height=\"582\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p>China Southern Airlines' available passenger seat kilometers reached 75 billion, about 66% of H1 2019, indicating that its confidence in recovery is higher than that of its competitors.</p><p><b>5) passenger load factor is a matter of life and death</b></p><p>Before the start of the epidemic, the passenger load factor of the three major airlines remained above 80%, with China Southern Airlines leading by 1 ~ 2 percentage points.</p><p>In 2020, the passenger load factor of the three major airlines generally fell by 10 percentage points, and all fell into losses.</p><p>There will be differentiation in H1 of 2022, with China Southern Airlines' capacity increasing to two-thirds of that before the epidemic, and passenger load factor still leading; The capacity of Air China and China Eastern Airlines has been greatly reduced, and it is still unable to stop passenger load factor's decline.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f7aa7e28861e3b3f591fb10aa676995a\" tg-width=\"938\" tg-height=\"595\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p>The gap in passenger load factor is 10 percentage points, and the gross profit margins of the three major airlines are very different.</p><p>Before the epidemic, the gross profit margin of the three major airlines was about 12%, and Air China remained ahead in terms of gross profit.</p><p>From 2015 to 2019, Air China's gross profit was higher than 20 billion for five consecutive years. In 2019, it was 22.9 billion. During the same period, the gross profits of China Southern Airlines and China Eastern Airlines were 18.7 billion and 13.7 billion respectively.</p><p>After the outbreak of the epidemic, in 2020 and 2021, the gross profit margins of Air China and China Eastern Airlines will be less than minus 20%, and will plummet to minus 75% in H1 of 2022. China Southern Airlines is relatively less exaggerated: in 2020 and 2021, the gross profit margin will be negative 3%, and in H1 of 2022, it will be negative 21%.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1ceaf33c0e62df212aed4ad8d321f857\" tg-width=\"934\" tg-height=\"532\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p><b>On the shortcomings and lengths of the \"three major\" from the perspective of cost and expense</b></p><p>The cost structure reveals the root cause of the decline in gross profit of the three major airlines:</p><p>In 2019, the fuel cost of the three major airlines was approximately 28% of revenue; Salary, depreciation and airport expenses each account for one-sixth of revenue;</p><p>Passenger load factor will decline in 2020, but the sluggish oil has somewhat alleviated the plight of airlines, and the proportion of fuel in revenue has declined instead of rising. As the three major airlines have their own \"home courts\", the proportion of airport take-off and landing fees to revenue has basically remained unchanged. However, salary and depreciation are \"rigid\", and the proportion of the two costs to revenue has doubled.</p><p>In H1 of 2022, passenger load factor will further decline, and international oil prices will soar... Many unfavorable factors will come together. Air China's fuel costs account for 43% of revenue, depreciation accounts for 42%, and salaries account for 37%. Only airport expenses account for 13%. The situation of China Eastern Airlines is worse than that of Air China, while China Southern Airlines shows strong resilience-the proportion of fuel is 8 percentage points lower than that of Air China, the salary is 13 percentage points lower, and the depreciation is 14 percentage points lower...</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/77e455309250586fde90d3f48c12fa42\" tg-width=\"941\" tg-height=\"578\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p>Similar to the proportion of various costs to revenue, the proportion of sales, management, and financial expenses to revenue has also increased significantly under the influence of the epidemic.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c13f6ee631e8bfa5bd7ababdc7786491\" tg-width=\"948\" tg-height=\"567\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p>In all dimensions such as revenue, cash flow, capacity, and passenger load factor, China Southern Airlines is significantly better than Air China and China Eastern Airlines. If China Southern Airlines' advantages are still obvious after the industry recovers from the epidemic, it can be concluded that the \"three-legged confrontation\" pattern has been broken.</p><p>However, if there is a \"adversity reversal\" in the secondary market, China Southern Airlines, which has the strongest resilience, may not be the best target, and the stock prices of Air China, which has a beautiful \"signboard\", and China Eastern Airlines, which has the \"worst\", may perform better than China Southern Airlines.</p><p>Known as the \"king of cycles\"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/601919\">COSCO SHIPPING Holding</a>(601919. SH), from 2014 to the first three quarters of 2022, the cumulative deduction of non-net profit exceeded 185 billion! Moreover, the loss-making bulk shipping business was divested in 2016. If the cycle is ten years,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/01919\">COSCO SHIPPING Holding</a>The total profit far exceeds 100 billion.</p><p>From the perspective of \"full-cycle net profit\" and valuation, the investment value of aviation stocks is not as good as that of container shipping (the market value of COSCO SHIPPING Holdings and Air China is both 170 billion).</p><p></body></html></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>The trap that made Buffett stumble many times, be careful</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nThe trap that made Buffett stumble many times, be careful\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/101\">\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/98669fe7974e42f3976b3db47528792d);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">虎嗅APP </p>\n<p class=\"h-time smaller\">2023-03-01 13:45</p>\n</div>\n</a>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><html><head></head><body>Buffett has fallen on airline stocks more than once.</p><p>In 1988, he bought US Air, cut the meat and left the market; In 2007, Buffett reflected that \"the worst industries are those that grow rapidly but are difficult to make money, such as aviation\"; In 2013, it was said that \"for investors, the aviation industry is a fatal trap\"; Unexpectedly, in 2016, he bought the stocks of the four major airlines in the United States in large quantities, claiming that \"I can't see which one is more prominent\"; In February 2020, when the aviation industry was in turmoil, Buffett bought a large number of airline stocks and vowed not to sell them, but he \"cut the meat\" in early May and suffered heavy losses.</p><p>Over the past decades, the aviation industry has experienced countless \"baptisms\", and no ordinary people have survived. passenger load factor has remained at a high level, with strong cost control capabilities and good cash flow. The epidemic will always pass. Even the \"stock god\" can hardly resist the temptation to buy at the darkest moment of the aviation industry and wait for the recovery.</p><p>Affected by the epidemic, China's total civil aviation turnover in 2022 will only be 46.3% of that in 2019; The annual passenger traffic was 250 million passengers, 38.1% of 2019. January 31, 2023,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/601111\">Air China</a>(60111. SH),<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/CEA\">Eastern Airlines</a>(600115. SH) and<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/ZNH\">Southern Airlines</a>(600029. SH) also released the \"Annual Business Forecast\". Air China's annual deduction of non-losses is 37.2 billion to 39.9 billion, China Eastern Airlines is expected to lose 36.8 billion to 39.8 billion, and China Southern Airlines is expected to lose 30.9 billion to 34.1 billion. The three major airlines will lose 104.9 billion to 113.8 billion in 2022.</p><p>Since 2020, the non-net losses of the three major airlines have accumulated between 187.2 billion and 196.1 billion, with an average of 64 billion each. The \"loss king\" of A-shares is none other than the three major airlines.</p><p>Nearly 200 billion losses, where did the money go? Which one is more resilient? Is the \"reversal of adversity\" worth a blog?</p><p><b>The \"three-legged confrontation\" situation has been broken</b></p><p><b>1) The revenue gap is widening</b></p><p>In 2019, the revenue of the three major airlines all hit record highs: China Southern Airlines ranked first with 154.3 billion, followed by Air China with 136.2 billion, and China Eastern Airlines was at the bottom with 120.9 billion.</p><p>Under the influence of the epidemic, the \"three major airlines\" are divided:</p><p>China Southern Airlines has the strongest resilience, and its revenue in 2021 will still exceed 100 billion, equivalent to 66% of 2019; Revenue in the first three quarters of 2022 will be 70.2 billion, equivalent to 64% of the same period in 2019;</p><p>The trajectories of Air China and China Eastern Airlines are exactly the same: revenue in 2020 fell to 50% of that in 2019; In 2021, it will rise to 55% of 2019; The first three quarters of 2022 were 41% of the same period in 2019.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5d3ab709933f9d2dd5510e20a87c6881\" tg-width=\"927\" tg-height=\"588\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p>In 2019, the revenue of Air China and China Eastern Airlines was equivalent to 88.2% and 78.3% of China Southern Airlines respectively; In the first three quarters of 2022, Air China and China Eastern Airlines accounted for 60% and 51% of China Southern Airlines respectively. The \"three-legged confrontation\" situation has been temporarily broken, and whether the balance can be restored after the epidemic deserves attention.</p><p><b>2) Earn 6 years and \"can't stand it\" and lose 1 year</b></p><p>The loss of the civil aviation industry can be described as a \"bottomless pit\", with annual profits of only a few billion and losses of tens of billions. Taking Air China as an example, the total non-net profit deducted from 2014 to 2020 will be 35.5 billion, and the loss in 2022 will be no less than 37.2 billion. The money earned in 6 years will be less than the loss in 1 year.</p><p>Relatively speaking, Air China's profitability is the strongest: non-net profit was 7.2 billion in 2017, 6.6 billion in 2018, and fell to 6.2 billion in 2019. After the epidemic began, Air China's losses have increased year by year: 14.7 billion in 2020, 17.1 billion in 2021, and more than 37 billion in 2022.</p><p>The profit decline of China Eastern Airlines is the most obvious: the peak was in 2017, and the non-net profit was 4.5 billion; It dropped sharply to 1.9 billion in 2018; In 2019, the epidemic has not yet occurred, and China Eastern Airlines has already lost 590 million; The loss in 2020 is 12.7 billion, the loss in 2021 is 13.5 billion, and the loss in 2022 is about 37 billion, which is equivalent to Air China.</p><p>China Southern Airlines is relatively stable: the non-net profit will be 5.2 billion in 2017, and the loss will not exceed 34 billion in 2022.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/fd2f5102e745a16ff6dd125b1fc59b40\" tg-width=\"940\" tg-height=\"555\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p>Extending the time scale, Air China is the best performer. From 2014 to 2019, the total non-net profit deducted in six years was 35.5 billion; Since the epidemic, the loss has not exceeded 71.7 billion. From 2014 to 2022, the eight-year profit and loss will offset a net loss of 36 billion. During the same period, China Southern Airlines had a net loss of 40 billion yuan and China Eastern Airlines had a net loss of 55 billion yuan.</p><p><b>Aviation stocks are also cyclical. In the current full cycle, the total profit will be far less than the total loss.</b></p><p><b>3) Cash flow from operating activities \"lost\"</b></p><p>When the epidemic broke out in 2020, the three major airlines all fell into huge losses. However, Air China and China Eastern Airlines will keep the \"line of defense\" of cash flow from operating activities until 2021.</p><p>In 2021, Air China and China Eastern Airlines will lose 17.1 billion and 13.5 billion respectively, but the net inflow from operating activities will remain positive, at 12.9 billion and 5.7 billion respectively. In 2022, Air China and China Eastern Airlines will finally \"break their achievements\", with cash flows from operating activities of negative 4.9 billion and negative 260 million respectively. Fortunately, the proportion of revenue is not high, with Air China accounting for 11.6% and China Eastern Airlines only 0.7%.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8fe69b8f21230f1cf352f39efa362056\" tg-width=\"947\" tg-height=\"607\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p>China Southern Airlines' cash flow from operating activities has always been positive, with a loss of 12.6 billion in 2021 and a positive operating cash flow of 13.4 billion. In the first three quarters of 2022, the loss was 18.3 billion, and the operating cash flow was positive 7.3 billion, equivalent to 10.4% of revenue.</p><p>The most difficult moment for the aviation industry has passed, and the cash flow of the three major aviation operating activities in 2023 is likely to \"turn positive\".</p><p><b>4) Transportation capacity investment is based on prediction and represents confidence</b></p><p>If the land reserve reflects the developer's prediction of the market, the airline capacity investment is based on the expectation of the prosperity of the industry. In the future, the number of flights, personnel arrangements, flight increases or decreases... all need to be planned and reported in advance.</p><p>In 2019, air passenger transport was \"in full swing\", and the investment in the three major aviation operations reached its peak. Among them, the available passenger kilometers (ASK) of China Southern Airlines reached 344 billion passenger kilometers, while Air China and China Eastern Airlines had 288 billion passenger kilometers and 270 billion passenger kilometers respectively.</p><p>In 2020, the situation took a sharp turn for the worse, and all three major air transport capacities were cut in half. The theme of 2021 is \"wait and see\", and the operation launch is the same as in 2020. China Southern Airlines, Air China, and China Eastern Airlines have 214 billion passenger kilometers, 152 billion passenger kilometers, and 161 billion passenger kilometers respectively.</p><p>In H1 of 2022, the three major airlines will differentiate. Air China and China Eastern Airlines \"can't afford to lose\", while China Southern Airlines' confidence is \"strong\". In the first half of the year, Air China's available passenger seat kilometers were 44 billion, only 31% of H1 2019. China Eastern Airlines' available passenger seat kilometers were 34% of the same period in 2019.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d122738f6a7010658a48787fefb50697\" tg-width=\"953\" tg-height=\"582\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p>China Southern Airlines' available passenger seat kilometers reached 75 billion, about 66% of H1 2019, indicating that its confidence in recovery is higher than that of its competitors.</p><p><b>5) passenger load factor is a matter of life and death</b></p><p>Before the start of the epidemic, the passenger load factor of the three major airlines remained above 80%, with China Southern Airlines leading by 1 ~ 2 percentage points.</p><p>In 2020, the passenger load factor of the three major airlines generally fell by 10 percentage points, and all fell into losses.</p><p>There will be differentiation in H1 of 2022, with China Southern Airlines' capacity increasing to two-thirds of that before the epidemic, and passenger load factor still leading; The capacity of Air China and China Eastern Airlines has been greatly reduced, and it is still unable to stop passenger load factor's decline.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f7aa7e28861e3b3f591fb10aa676995a\" tg-width=\"938\" tg-height=\"595\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p>The gap in passenger load factor is 10 percentage points, and the gross profit margins of the three major airlines are very different.</p><p>Before the epidemic, the gross profit margin of the three major airlines was about 12%, and Air China remained ahead in terms of gross profit.</p><p>From 2015 to 2019, Air China's gross profit was higher than 20 billion for five consecutive years. In 2019, it was 22.9 billion. During the same period, the gross profits of China Southern Airlines and China Eastern Airlines were 18.7 billion and 13.7 billion respectively.</p><p>After the outbreak of the epidemic, in 2020 and 2021, the gross profit margins of Air China and China Eastern Airlines will be less than minus 20%, and will plummet to minus 75% in H1 of 2022. China Southern Airlines is relatively less exaggerated: in 2020 and 2021, the gross profit margin will be negative 3%, and in H1 of 2022, it will be negative 21%.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1ceaf33c0e62df212aed4ad8d321f857\" tg-width=\"934\" tg-height=\"532\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p><b>On the shortcomings and lengths of the \"three major\" from the perspective of cost and expense</b></p><p>The cost structure reveals the root cause of the decline in gross profit of the three major airlines:</p><p>In 2019, the fuel cost of the three major airlines was approximately 28% of revenue; Salary, depreciation and airport expenses each account for one-sixth of revenue;</p><p>Passenger load factor will decline in 2020, but the sluggish oil has somewhat alleviated the plight of airlines, and the proportion of fuel in revenue has declined instead of rising. As the three major airlines have their own \"home courts\", the proportion of airport take-off and landing fees to revenue has basically remained unchanged. However, salary and depreciation are \"rigid\", and the proportion of the two costs to revenue has doubled.</p><p>In H1 of 2022, passenger load factor will further decline, and international oil prices will soar... Many unfavorable factors will come together. Air China's fuel costs account for 43% of revenue, depreciation accounts for 42%, and salaries account for 37%. Only airport expenses account for 13%. The situation of China Eastern Airlines is worse than that of Air China, while China Southern Airlines shows strong resilience-the proportion of fuel is 8 percentage points lower than that of Air China, the salary is 13 percentage points lower, and the depreciation is 14 percentage points lower...</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/77e455309250586fde90d3f48c12fa42\" tg-width=\"941\" tg-height=\"578\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p>Similar to the proportion of various costs to revenue, the proportion of sales, management, and financial expenses to revenue has also increased significantly under the influence of the epidemic.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c13f6ee631e8bfa5bd7ababdc7786491\" tg-width=\"948\" tg-height=\"567\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p>In all dimensions such as revenue, cash flow, capacity, and passenger load factor, China Southern Airlines is significantly better than Air China and China Eastern Airlines. If China Southern Airlines' advantages are still obvious after the industry recovers from the epidemic, it can be concluded that the \"three-legged confrontation\" pattern has been broken.</p><p>However, if there is a \"adversity reversal\" in the secondary market, China Southern Airlines, which has the strongest resilience, may not be the best target, and the stock prices of Air China, which has a beautiful \"signboard\", and China Eastern Airlines, which has the \"worst\", may perform better than China Southern Airlines.</p><p>Known as the \"king of cycles\"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/601919\">COSCO SHIPPING Holding</a>(601919. SH), from 2014 to the first three quarters of 2022, the cumulative deduction of non-net profit exceeded 185 billion! Moreover, the loss-making bulk shipping business was divested in 2016. If the cycle is ten years,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/01919\">COSCO SHIPPING Holding</a>The total profit far exceeds 100 billion.</p><p>From the perspective of \"full-cycle net profit\" and valuation, the investment value of aviation stocks is not as good as that of container shipping (the market value of COSCO SHIPPING Holdings and Air China is both 170 billion).</p><p></body></html></p>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ca5b688e580614406d82926376bf229c","relate_stocks":{"BRK.A":"伯克希尔","LU1914381329.SGD":"Allianz Best Styles Global Equity Cl ET Acc H2-SGD","LU0234570918.USD":"高盛全球核心股票组合Acc Close","IE00B3S45H60.SGD":"Neuberger Berman US Multicap Opportunities A Acc SGD-H","LU0971096721.USD":"富达环球金融服务 A","BK4534":"瑞士信贷持仓","LU0149725797.USD":"汇丰美国股市经济规模基金","BK4533":"AQR资本管理(全球第二大对冲基金)","LU0256863811.USD":"ALLIANZ US EQUITY \"A\" INC","LU1201861249.SGD":"Natixis Harris Associates US Equity PA SGD-H","IE00B1XK9C88.USD":"PINEBRIDGE 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Air，割肉离场；2007年巴菲特反省说“最坏的行业是那些增长迅速但很难赚钱的行业，比如航空”；2013年说“对投资者来说，航空业是致命陷阱”；不料2016年又大举买入美国四大航空公司股票，还声称“看不出哪家更突出”；2020年2月，航空业风雨飘摇之际，巴菲特大量买入航空公司股票并誓言不会出售，却在5月初“割肉”，损失惨重。数十年来，航空业经历无数“洗礼”，活下来的没有泛泛之辈，客座率保持在高位、成本控制能力强、现金流良好。疫情总会过去，在航空业的至暗时刻买入，静待复苏，这种诱惑连“股神”都难以抗拒。受疫情影响，2022年中国民航总周转量仅为2019年的46.3%；全年客运量2.5亿人次，为2019年的38.1%。2023年1月31日，中国国航（60111.SH）、东方航空（600115.SH）和南方航空（600029.SH）同时发布《年度业务预告》，国航年度扣非亏损372亿~399亿，东航预计亏损368亿~398亿，南航预计亏损309亿~341亿。三大航空2022年度亏损1049亿~1138亿。2020年以来，三大航空扣非净亏损累计1872亿~1961亿，平均每家640亿。A股“亏损王”非三大航空莫属。将近2000亿亏损，钱去哪儿了？哪家韧性更强？“逆境反转”是否值得一博？“三足鼎立”局面被打破1）营收差距拉大2019年，三大航空营收均创历史新高：南航以1543亿居首、国航1362亿次之、东航1209亿“垫底”。疫情影响下，“三大航空”出现分化：南航韧性最强，2021年营收仍在千亿以上、相当于2019年的66%；2022年前三季营收702亿、相当于2019年同期的64%；国航、东航的轨迹如出一辙：2020年营收跌至2019年的50%；2021年回升到2019年的55%；2022年前三季为2019年同期的41%。2019年，国航、东航营收分别相当于南航的88.2%、78.3%；2022年前三季，国航、东航分别为南航的60%、51%。“三足鼎立”局面暂时被打破，疫情后能否恢复均衡值得关注。2）赚6年“架不住”亏1年民航业的亏损可谓“无底洞”，年利润不过几十亿，亏损动辄几百亿。以国航为例，2014年~2020年扣非净利润合计355亿，2022年亏损不低于372亿，6年赚的钱不及1年的亏损。相对而言，国航盈利能力算是最强的：2017年扣非净利润72亿，2018年66亿，2019年滑落至62亿。疫情开始后，国航亏损逐年加大：2020年亏147亿、2021年亏171亿、2022年亏损超过370亿。东航盈利滑坡最明显：峰值在2017年，扣非净利润45亿；2018年大幅降至19亿；2019年，疫情尚未出现，东航已经亏损5.9亿；2020年亏127亿、2021年亏135亿、2022年亏损约370亿，与国航相当。南航相对稳健：2017年扣非净利润52亿，2022年亏损不超过340亿。拉长时间尺度，表现最好的还是国航。2014年~2019年，六年扣非净利润合计355亿；疫情以来亏损不超过717亿。2014年~2022年，8年盈亏相抵净亏360亿。同期，南航净亏400亿、东航净亏550亿。航空股也呈周期性，目前所处的完整周期内，总盈利将会远远小于总亏损。3）经营活动现金流“失守”2020年疫情爆发，三大航空公司齐齐陷入巨亏。但经营活动现金流这条“防线“，国航、东航一直守到2021年。2021年，国航、东航分别亏损171亿、135亿，经营活动现流入净额却保持正值，分别为129亿、57亿。2022年国航、东航终于“破功”，经营活动现金流分别为负49亿、负2.6亿。好在占营收的比例不算高，国航为11.6%、东航只有0.7%。南航经营活动现金流一直为正，2021年亏损126亿、经营现金流为正134亿。2022年前三季亏损183亿、经营现金流为正73亿，相当于营收的10.4%。航空业最艰难的时刻已经过去，2023年三大航空经营活动现金流大概率可以“转正”。4）运力投放基于预判、代表信心如果说土地储备反映开发商对市场的预判，航空公司运力投放则基于对行业景气度的预期。未来一段时间飞行架次、人员安排、航班增减……都需提前规划、报备。2019年，航空客运“如火如荼”，三大航空运营投入达到顶峰。其中南航可用客座公里（ASK）达3440亿客公里，国航、东航分别为2880亿客公里、2700亿客公里。2020年，形势急转直下，三大航空运力投放全部腰斩。2021年的主题是“观望”，运营投放与2020年持平，南航、国航、东航分别为2140亿客公里 、1520亿客公里、1610亿客公里。2022年H1，三大航空出现分化。国航、东航有些“输不起”，南航信心“坚挺”。上半年国航可用客座公里440亿、仅为2019年H1的31%。东航可用客座公里为2019年同期的34%。南航可用客座公里达750亿、约为2019年H1的66%，说明对复苏的信心高于友商。5）客座率生死攸关疫情开始前，三大航空客座率都保持在80%以上，其中南航领先1~2个百分点。2020年，三大航空客座率普遍下降10个百分点，全部陷入亏损。2022年H1出现分化，南航运力投放增至疫情前的三分之二，客座率仍然领先；国航、东航运力投放大幅减少、仍无法阻止客座率下滑。客座率差距10个百分点，三大航空毛利润率有天壤之别。疫情前，三大航空毛利润率约为12%，毛利润金额国航保持领先。2015~2019年，国航毛利润连续5年高于200亿。2019年为229亿，同期南航、东航毛利润分别为187亿、137亿。疫情出现后，2020年、2021年，国航、东航毛利润率都低于负20%，2022年H1暴跌至负75%。南航相对没有那么夸张：2020年、2021年，毛利润率负3%，2022年H1为负21%。从成本、费用，论“三大”短长成本结构揭示了三大航空毛利润下降的根源：2019年，三大航空公司油料成本约为营收的28%；薪酬、折旧、机场费用各占营收的六分之一；2020年客座率下降，但低迷的油多少缓解了航司的困境，油料占营收的比例不升反降。由于三大航空有自己的“主场”，机场起降费用占营收的比例基本没有变化。但薪酬、折旧“刚性”十足，两项成本占营收的比例翻了一倍。2022年H1，客座率进一步下降，国际油价飙升……诸多不利因素齐至，国航油料成本占营收的43%、折旧占42%、薪酬占37%，只有机场费用占比维持在13%。东航的情况比国航更糟，南航则表现出强大的韧性——油料占比较国航低8个百分点、薪酬低13个百分点、折旧低14个百分点……与各项成本占营收比例相似，在疫情影响下销售、管理、财务三项费用占营收的比例也大幅提高。在营收、现金流、运力、客座率等所有维度，南航都显著优于国航、东航。如果行业从疫情中复苏后，南航优势依然明显，可以断定“三足鼎立”的格局被打破。但是，如果在二级市场博“逆境反转”，韧性最强的南航未必是最佳标的，“招牌”靓丽的国航、“最惨”的东航股价表现有可能优于南航。被称为“周期之王”的中远海控(601919.SH)，2014年~2022年前三季，扣非净利润累计超过1850亿！而且造成亏损的散货运输业务已于2016年剥离。假如周期为十年，中远海控总利润远超1000亿。从“全周期净盈利”和估值来看，航空股投资价值不如集装箱运输（中远海控与国航市值均为1700亿）。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"BRK.A":0.9,"BRK.B":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1788,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":187216560,"gmtCreate":1623755175250,"gmtModify":1704210630477,"author":{"id":"3550929150938676","authorId":"3550929150938676","name":"探索61","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9021b6d43ee21685175834b2c425dddf","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3550929150938676","idStr":"3550929150938676"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Sad 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