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2021-06-23

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2021-07-09

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Disney shares rises nearly 2%,as Shanghai Disneyland raising prices up to 10%.

2021-06-21

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Apple: Winter Is Coming

2021-06-22

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Forget Everything You Know: Morgan Stanley Reveals The Only Metric That Determines What The Market Will Do Next

2021-06-24

$Alibaba(BABA)$long

2021-06-23

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2021-06-21

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Thousands of Commonwealth Edison customers without power as severe storms hit Chicago

2021-06-24

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2021-06-24

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2021-06-22

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stock market headlines, business news, financials and earnings ","home_visible":1,"media_name":"Tiger Newspress","id":"1079075236","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba"},"pubTimestamp":1625838849,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1187480487?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2021-07-09 21:54","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Disney shares rises nearly 2%,as Shanghai Disneyland raising prices up to 10%.","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1187480487","media":"Tiger Newspress","summary":"Disney shares rises nearly 2%,as Shanghai Disneyland raising prices up to 10%.\n\n\nShanghai Disneyland","content":"<p>Disney&nbsp;shares&nbsp;rises&nbsp;nearly&nbsp;2%,as&nbsp;Shanghai Disneyland raising prices up to 10%.</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c8b245ccacada732569aab91c7bad577\" tg-width=\"803\" tg-height=\"601\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<ul>\n <li>Shanghai Disneyland (DIS+0.7%) willraise its ticket prices starting in January.</li>\n <li>The resort indicated it would boost prices on Jan. 9, setting new rates for four tiers: Regular, Regular Plus, Peak (most days in summer season and other peak visitation days), and Peak Plus.</li>\n <li>The Regular price at that time will be 435 yuan (about $67.13). Regular Plus will be 545 yuan (about $84.11). Meanwhile, Peak price is set at 659 yuan ($101.70) and Peak Plus at 769 yuan ($118.67).</li>\n <li>That results in increases of 9-10% across the board.</li>\n <p><b>Disney</b>&nbsp;is gearing up for a big weekend at the box office as the long-delayed \"Black Widow\" is set for its theatrical release worldwide on July 9. Disney stock rose.</p>\n <p>Worldwide estimates for \"Black Widow\" are as high as $140 million, according to Deadline. That doesn't include China, Marvel's biggest market, as it doesn't yet have a release date there.</p>\n</ul>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Disney shares rises nearly 2%,as Shanghai Disneyland raising prices up to 10%.</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nDisney shares rises nearly 2%,as Shanghai Disneyland raising prices up to 10%.\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/1079075236\">\n\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">Tiger Newspress </p>\n<p class=\"h-time\">2021-07-09 21:54</p>\n</div>\n\n</a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>Disney&nbsp;shares&nbsp;rises&nbsp;nearly&nbsp;2%,as&nbsp;Shanghai Disneyland raising prices up to 10%.</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c8b245ccacada732569aab91c7bad577\" tg-width=\"803\" tg-height=\"601\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<ul>\n <li>Shanghai Disneyland (DIS+0.7%) willraise its ticket prices starting in January.</li>\n <li>The resort indicated it would boost prices on Jan. 9, setting new rates for four tiers: Regular, Regular Plus, Peak (most days in summer season and other peak visitation days), and Peak Plus.</li>\n <li>The Regular price at that time will be 435 yuan (about $67.13). Regular Plus will be 545 yuan (about $84.11). Meanwhile, Peak price is set at 659 yuan ($101.70) and Peak Plus at 769 yuan ($118.67).</li>\n <li>That results in increases of 9-10% across the board.</li>\n <p><b>Disney</b>&nbsp;is gearing up for a big weekend at the box office as the long-delayed \"Black Widow\" is set for its theatrical release worldwide on July 9. Disney stock rose.</p>\n <p>Worldwide estimates for \"Black Widow\" are as high as $140 million, according to Deadline. That doesn't include China, Marvel's biggest market, as it doesn't yet have a release date there.</p>\n</ul>\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"DIS":"迪士尼"},"is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1187480487","content_text":"Disney shares rises nearly 2%,as Shanghai Disneyland raising prices up to 10%.\n\n\nShanghai Disneyland (DIS+0.7%) willraise its ticket prices starting in January.\nThe resort indicated it would boost prices on Jan. 9, setting new rates for four tiers: Regular, Regular Plus, Peak (most days in summer season and other peak visitation days), and Peak Plus.\nThe Regular price at that time will be 435 yuan (about $67.13). Regular Plus will be 545 yuan (about $84.11). Meanwhile, Peak price is set at 659 yuan ($101.70) and Peak Plus at 769 yuan ($118.67).\nThat results in increases of 9-10% across the board.\nDisney is gearing up for a big weekend at the box office as the long-delayed \"Black Widow\" is set for its theatrical release worldwide on July 9. Disney stock rose.\nWorldwide estimates for \"Black Widow\" are as high as $140 million, according to Deadline. That doesn't include China, Marvel's biggest market, as it doesn't yet have a release date there.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"DIS":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2087,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":128754324,"gmtCreate":1624533716868,"gmtModify":1703839592277,"author":{"id":"3554809676542757","authorId":"3554809676542757","name":"Twentyone","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/fa127065a0eb858d93d3bb4ee7e3ecde","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3554809676542757","idStr":"3554809676542757"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BABA\">$Alibaba(BABA)$</a>long","listText":"<a 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href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BABA\">$Alibaba(BABA)$</a>lol","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BABA\">$Alibaba(BABA)$</a>lol","text":"$Alibaba(BABA)$lol","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/29a56416e4d7b6187d7545e29186d7c6","width":"1080","height":"1920"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/121208142","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2503,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":121678436,"gmtCreate":1624463789625,"gmtModify":1703837633580,"author":{"id":"3554809676542757","authorId":"3554809676542757","name":"Twentyone","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/fa127065a0eb858d93d3bb4ee7e3ecde","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3554809676542757","idStr":"3554809676542757"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Gr8","listText":"Gr8","text":"Gr8","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/121678436","repostId":"1155993250","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2746,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":121671877,"gmtCreate":1624463745999,"gmtModify":1703837631629,"author":{"id":"3554809676542757","authorId":"3554809676542757","name":"Twentyone","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/fa127065a0eb858d93d3bb4ee7e3ecde","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3554809676542757","idStr":"3554809676542757"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Nice","listText":"Nice","text":"Nice","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":5,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/121671877","repostId":"1104273824","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":3209,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":129871360,"gmtCreate":1624369855350,"gmtModify":1703834660421,"author":{"id":"3554809676542757","authorId":"3554809676542757","name":"Twentyone","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/fa127065a0eb858d93d3bb4ee7e3ecde","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3554809676542757","idStr":"3554809676542757"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Gr8","listText":"Gr8","text":"Gr8","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/129871360","repostId":"1186919064","repostType":2,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2946,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":129828086,"gmtCreate":1624369299845,"gmtModify":1703834618144,"author":{"id":"3554809676542757","authorId":"3554809676542757","name":"Twentyone","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/fa127065a0eb858d93d3bb4ee7e3ecde","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3554809676542757","idStr":"3554809676542757"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"LOL","listText":"LOL","text":"LOL","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/129828086","repostId":"1152615512","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1152615512","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1624360383,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1152615512?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2021-06-22 19:13","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Confused by the Fed? So Are Markets","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1152615512","media":"The Wall Street Journal","summary":"Swings in bond yields reveal deep confusion among investors about the Fed’s intentions and the stren","content":"<blockquote>\n Swings in bond yields reveal deep confusion among investors about the Fed’s intentions and the strength of the post-pandemic recovery.\n</blockquote>\n<p>The bond market is supposed to be the smart older cousin that keeps its head while the flighty stock market zooms about all over the place. Not so much in the past week.</p>\n<p>Instead of a calm response to the Federal Reserve’sslightly more hawkish tone, the 10-year yield first leapt by the most in months, then plunged. On Monday, it dropped during Asian trading hours to the lowest since February, before bouncing all the way back and then some.</p>\n<p>The moves reveal deep confusion among investors about the Fed’s intentions and the strength ofthe post-pandemic recovery, as well as the extraordinary desperation for safe yields.</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e5911d5e0ad74414b1b88185c2769f99\" tg-width=\"336\" tg-height=\"410\">Before stock traders get too smug, bond-market volatility is mirrored by similar swings below the surface of the stock market.</p>\n<p>For me, the most extraordinary shift was the $235 billion depositedin the Fed’s reverse repurchase facilityafter it raised the rate it pays from zero to 0.05%, because it was concerned that it was losing control of the lower bound of rates.</p>\n<p>This is a true tightening of monetary policy, not the mere technicality the Fed presented it as. For monetarists who care about the amount of money in circulation, in one day it drained reserves equivalent to two months of quantitative easing, and showed just how much cash is sloshing around the system looking for even the tiniest yield.</p>\n<p>For those, including me, who prefer to focus on the price of money, it is now higher—albeit not very much, it is a tightening. Secured overnight rates in the money market had been stuck on the floor of 0.01% since March, according to the New York Fed, with some borrowing at negative rates. It rose to 0.05% after the Fed’s announcement, and negative rates vanished.</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1707a50e4704c3c16d8d2eac7a0204f9\" tg-width=\"317\" tg-height=\"419\">After the initial volatility, the bond market’s considered reaction was in the right direction for tighter policy: Higher short-term real rates reduced the longer-term inflation threat and so led to lower 10-year and 30-year Treasury yields—until the reflation trade returned on Monday. Higher rates pulled down stocks most sensitive to the economy—cyclicals and cheap value stocks—until Monday’s reverse. Growth stocks did fine thanks to lower long-term rates, before lagging on Monday.</p>\n<p>Yet, 0.05% is a very small tightening, to put it mildly. Usually, the Fed moves in 0.25-percentage-point increments, so this was equivalent to one-fifth of a normal rate increase. What mattered for Treasurys wasn’t the immediate shift in the price of money, but the prospect of a bigger change by the Fed.</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4bacd47e561e9d7ffdb95d180913fadf\" tg-width=\"321\" tg-height=\"418\">Much of the focus was on the “dots,” the projections of individual Fed policy makers. The median prediction for 2023 was for two 0.25-point increases that year, having previously been for no move. Again, in normal times this wouldn’t be terribly significant, as the predictions aren’t binding, have been a terrible guide to future policy and anyway are still two years away. They were even dismissed by Fed Chairman Jerome Powell in his news conference on Wednesday.</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e5df90890ee96402b8d5375020d3c135\" tg-width=\"353\" tg-height=\"454\">The reason the market cared so much isn’t the specifics, but the shift in tone from super-dovish to a hint of hawk. St. Louis Fed President James Bullard emphasized this—and the market moved further—on Friday when he said the first increase could even come next year. Seven of the 18 dots had one or two rises penciled in for 2022, so the news here was merely that Mr. Bullard was one of them.</p>\n<p>Having previously been careful not to say anything that could possibly be interpreted as worrying about inflation, the Fed suddenly seemed to be concerned.</p>\n<p>We will have to wait for more from Mr. Powell and other Fed members to find out if this is the interpretation they wanted. They might well be taken aback by the scale of the market moves, which on Friday briefly pushed five-year Treasury yields—the base for much corporate borrowing—up to where they stood in February last year, before the first lockdown. It wouldn’t surprise me if Mr. Powell tries to talk the market back.</p>\n<p>The problem is that investors are supersensitive to the Fed’s views. They think the real economy will be hit much harder than it usually is by higher rates. The Fed also has spent the past year convincing investors that low rates are here pretty much forever.</p>\n<p>The threat of higher rates holding back the economy pushed investors toward the post-2010 playbook, at least for a few days: Buy long-dated bonds, buy Big Tech and other growth stocks, steer clear of anything dependent on a strong expansion.</p>\n<p>The shift from thinking there is no risk of rate rises to thinking there is some risk of increases marks a major change of mindset. But I urge caution: Don’t assume the Treasury market is right about inflation, let alone that the wildly swinging yield is anything more than a best guess at what the Fed plans.</p>\n<p>But just as withthe taper tantrum of 2013, when investors start to price in Fed action, they can overdo it as everyone tries to adjust their portfolio to the new reality at once.</p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Confused by the Fed? So Are Markets</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nConfused by the Fed? So Are Markets\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-06-22 19:13 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://www.wsj.com/articles/confused-by-the-fed-so-are-markets-11624352991><strong>The Wall Street Journal</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>Swings in bond yields reveal deep confusion among investors about the Fed’s intentions and the strength of the post-pandemic recovery.\n\nThe bond market is supposed to be the smart older cousin that ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://www.wsj.com/articles/confused-by-the-fed-so-are-markets-11624352991\">Source Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"SPY":"标普500ETF",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite",".DJI":"道琼斯",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index"},"source_url":"https://www.wsj.com/articles/confused-by-the-fed-so-are-markets-11624352991","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1152615512","content_text":"Swings in bond yields reveal deep confusion among investors about the Fed’s intentions and the strength of the post-pandemic recovery.\n\nThe bond market is supposed to be the smart older cousin that keeps its head while the flighty stock market zooms about all over the place. Not so much in the past week.\nInstead of a calm response to the Federal Reserve’sslightly more hawkish tone, the 10-year yield first leapt by the most in months, then plunged. On Monday, it dropped during Asian trading hours to the lowest since February, before bouncing all the way back and then some.\nThe moves reveal deep confusion among investors about the Fed’s intentions and the strength ofthe post-pandemic recovery, as well as the extraordinary desperation for safe yields.\nBefore stock traders get too smug, bond-market volatility is mirrored by similar swings below the surface of the stock market.\nFor me, the most extraordinary shift was the $235 billion depositedin the Fed’s reverse repurchase facilityafter it raised the rate it pays from zero to 0.05%, because it was concerned that it was losing control of the lower bound of rates.\nThis is a true tightening of monetary policy, not the mere technicality the Fed presented it as. For monetarists who care about the amount of money in circulation, in one day it drained reserves equivalent to two months of quantitative easing, and showed just how much cash is sloshing around the system looking for even the tiniest yield.\nFor those, including me, who prefer to focus on the price of money, it is now higher—albeit not very much, it is a tightening. Secured overnight rates in the money market had been stuck on the floor of 0.01% since March, according to the New York Fed, with some borrowing at negative rates. It rose to 0.05% after the Fed’s announcement, and negative rates vanished.\nAfter the initial volatility, the bond market’s considered reaction was in the right direction for tighter policy: Higher short-term real rates reduced the longer-term inflation threat and so led to lower 10-year and 30-year Treasury yields—until the reflation trade returned on Monday. Higher rates pulled down stocks most sensitive to the economy—cyclicals and cheap value stocks—until Monday’s reverse. Growth stocks did fine thanks to lower long-term rates, before lagging on Monday.\nYet, 0.05% is a very small tightening, to put it mildly. Usually, the Fed moves in 0.25-percentage-point increments, so this was equivalent to one-fifth of a normal rate increase. What mattered for Treasurys wasn’t the immediate shift in the price of money, but the prospect of a bigger change by the Fed.\nMuch of the focus was on the “dots,” the projections of individual Fed policy makers. The median prediction for 2023 was for two 0.25-point increases that year, having previously been for no move. Again, in normal times this wouldn’t be terribly significant, as the predictions aren’t binding, have been a terrible guide to future policy and anyway are still two years away. They were even dismissed by Fed Chairman Jerome Powell in his news conference on Wednesday.\nThe reason the market cared so much isn’t the specifics, but the shift in tone from super-dovish to a hint of hawk. St. Louis Fed President James Bullard emphasized this—and the market moved further—on Friday when he said the first increase could even come next year. Seven of the 18 dots had one or two rises penciled in for 2022, so the news here was merely that Mr. Bullard was one of them.\nHaving previously been careful not to say anything that could possibly be interpreted as worrying about inflation, the Fed suddenly seemed to be concerned.\nWe will have to wait for more from Mr. Powell and other Fed members to find out if this is the interpretation they wanted. They might well be taken aback by the scale of the market moves, which on Friday briefly pushed five-year Treasury yields—the base for much corporate borrowing—up to where they stood in February last year, before the first lockdown. It wouldn’t surprise me if Mr. Powell tries to talk the market back.\nThe problem is that investors are supersensitive to the Fed’s views. They think the real economy will be hit much harder than it usually is by higher rates. The Fed also has spent the past year convincing investors that low rates are here pretty much forever.\nThe threat of higher rates holding back the economy pushed investors toward the post-2010 playbook, at least for a few days: Buy long-dated bonds, buy Big Tech and other growth stocks, steer clear of anything dependent on a strong expansion.\nThe shift from thinking there is no risk of rate rises to thinking there is some risk of increases marks a major change of mindset. But I urge caution: Don’t assume the Treasury market is right about inflation, let alone that the wildly swinging yield is anything more than a best guess at what the Fed plans.\nBut just as withthe taper tantrum of 2013, when investors start to price in Fed action, they can overdo it as everyone tries to adjust their portfolio to the new reality at once.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{".DJI":0.9,"SPY":0.9,".IXIC":0.9,".SPX":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2574,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":129866330,"gmtCreate":1624369143120,"gmtModify":1703834605653,"author":{"id":"3554809676542757","authorId":"3554809676542757","name":"Twentyone","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/fa127065a0eb858d93d3bb4ee7e3ecde","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3554809676542757","idStr":"3554809676542757"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Nice","listText":"Nice","text":"Nice","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/129866330","repostId":"1177499959","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1177499959","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1624344919,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1177499959?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2021-06-22 14:55","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Forget Everything You Know: Morgan Stanley Reveals The Only Metric That Determines What The Market Will Do Next","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1177499959","media":"zerohedge","summary":"Traders of a certain age may recall that back in 2013, around the time the Fed's \"Taper Tantrum\" spa","content":"<p>Traders of a certain age may recall that back in 2013, around the time the Fed's \"Taper Tantrum\" sparked a surge in yields and led to a risk asset selloff, a big (if entirely artificial) debate emerged within financial media, where the Fed muppets and their media puppets would argue that \"tapering is not tightening\" while anyone with half a brain realized knew that this was total BS.</p>\n<p>Fast forward to today when Morgan Stanley's Michael Wilson opens up an old wound for clueless Fed apologists, saying in his latest Weekly Warm Up note that \"Tapering<i><b>is</b></i>Tightening\"... but then adds that contrary to the market's shocked reaction to last week's Fed meeting, tightening actually began months ago.</p>\n<p>Elaborating on this point, Wilson - who several months ago turned into Wall Street's most bearish strategist (again)-&nbsp; writes this morning that while the Fed's pivot to \"begin\" the tightening discussion caught most by surprise, in reality markets began discounting this inevitable process months ago as price action had indicated. It's exactly this discounting of the coming tightening, that is what Michael Wilson's mid-cycle transition is all about, and as the strategist adds, \"<b>fits nicely with our narrative for choppier equity markets and a 10-20% correction for the broader indices this year.\"</b></p>\n<p>Or to paraphrase Lester Burnham,<b>\"it's all downhill from here\"...</b>and as Wilson predicts, that won't change until M2 growth is done decelerating; or in other words, until the Fed unleashes another liquidity burst into the system \"<b><i>the transition is incomplete.\"</i></b></p>\n<p>Highlights aside, Wilson then elaborates on each point, noting that while last week's Fed meeting brought more uncertainty to markets one thing is becoming more obvious:<b>\"we are on the other side of the mountain with respect to monetary accommodation for this cycle.</b>\"</p>\n<p>Furthermore, having repeatedlywarned that the US is now mid-cycle...</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d95f296e4d1300cd3c95485a2333d270\" tg-width=\"906\" tg-height=\"571\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">... Wilson then takes a victory lap writing that what the Fed is doing is \"classic mid cycle transition behavior so investors really shouldn't be too surprised that the Fed would try to begin the long process of tightening.\"</p>\n<blockquote>\n After all, the US economy is booming and expected to grow close to 10 percent this year in nominal terms, a feat last witnessed in 1984. Meanwhile, no matter what one's view is on inflation being transient or not, prices are up significantly and likely higher than what the Fed, or most others were expecting 6 months ago. In other words, the facts and data have changed; therefore, so should Fed policy.\n</blockquote>\n<p>Nevertheless, as discussed here extensively, markets reacted as if this was a complete shock with both bonds and stocks trading as if the Fed had hiked rates already (instead of leaving over $2TN in QE still on deck) after the Fed meeting. Starting with bonds, both nominal 10 year yields and breakevens fell significantly. However, breakevens fell more leaving 10 year real rates higher by almost 20 bps Wednesday afternoon.</p>\n<p>While real rates did settle back a bit on Thursday and Friday, they have formed what appears to be a very solid base from which they are likely to rise as the economy continues to recover and the Fed appropriately pivots. In Wilson's view, \"<b>this looks very similar to 2013, the year after Peak Fed. Back then, Peak Fed was QE3 which was announced on September 12, 2012. This time Peak Fed was the announcement of Average Inflation Targeting last summer.\"</b></p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/670f9e23e34953726583276c32a7b3f9\" tg-width=\"843\" tg-height=\"445\"></p>\n<p>That said, there is one notable difference between the taper tantrum and today: in 2013 \"tapering\" QE was a novel concept to markets and it came more abruptly with Bernanke's surprise mention during his congressional testimony on May 22, 2013.<b>This time, the markets understand what tapering is and see its arrival as inevitable as the economy recovers.</b>Therefore, while the path higher for real rates is unlikely to be as dramatic as witnessed in 2013, it is still likely to be higher from here and that is a change that will affect all risk markets, including equities, in Morgan Stanley's view.</p>\n<p>Wilson makes one final observation from the chart above, which is how real rates moved substantially<b>before</b>Bernanke's testimony in May 2013, prompting Wilson to notes that \"<i>perhaps it wasn't as much of a surprise as believed, at least to markets. We think it's the same situation today.\"</i></p>\n<blockquote>\n In our view, the data has been so strong, it would be naive not to think the Fed wasn't moving closer to tapering over the past several months. In fact, the idea that the Fed hasn't been thinking and/or talking about it seems absurd. Surely the market understands this, making the events of the past week not so much of a surprise. It's all part of the mid cycle transition that has been ongoing for months and fits with the choppier price action and unstable market leadership we have been witnessing.\n</blockquote>\n<p>The underperformance of early cycle stocks is another classic signal the market \"gets it.\" Nevertheless, in talking with clients the past few days, this view is still out of consensus. Most haven't been ready for tighter monetary policy, nor did they think it's something they needed to worry about, until now.</p>\n<p>Wrapping up the Fed \"surprise\" part of his note, Wilson writes that contrary to the FOMC shock,<b>monetary tightening actually began months ago if one is looking at the right metric, which to the top Morgan Stanley equity strategist - who emerges as yet another closet Austrian - is</b><b><u>money supply growth</u></b><b>:</b></p>\n<blockquote>\n <i>In a world where all of the major developed market central banks are stuck at the zero bound, or lower,</i>\n <i><b>the primary metric that determines if monetary policy is getting more or less accommodative is Money Supply Growth.</b></i>\n</blockquote>\n<p>Realizing that to most Keynesian this will be a controversial statement to say the least, Wilson digs in and says that \"it's absolutely the case and financial markets seem to agree.\"&nbsp; He explains:</p>\n<blockquote>\n <i>When money supply is accelerating, the more speculative / riskier assets tend to outperform and when it's decelerating these assets have more trouble. As noted here several times over the past few months, the Fed's balance sheet (M1) growth peaked in mid February and that coincided with a top in many of the most expensive/speculative stocks in the equity market just like the acceleration in the Fed's balance sheet in the prior 12 months contributed to their spectacular performance. Interestingly, the recently flattening out of the growth in M1 has coincided with more stability in these stocks, although they remain well below prior highs (Exhibit 2).</i>\n</blockquote>\n<p>And visually:</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/392b34be32740b00458d59adb2bb80a6\" tg-width=\"852\" tg-height=\"486\"></p>\n<p>But wait there's more, and also an explanation why the Fed has made it virtually impossible to track the weekly change in M2 (the aggregate is now updated only monthly).</p>\n<p>Taking Wilson's argument a step further,<b>M2 growth might be even more important to monitor than M1 because that's the net liquidity available to the economy</b><b><i>and</i></b><b>markets.</b>On that front, the deceleration also began at the end of February<b>but has not yet flattened out and appears to have much further to fall to a&nbsp; more \"normal\" level of annual growth</b>— i.e., 7-8%</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/dd5f46571e7e27f9c00fed0a2d310a3c\" tg-width=\"610\" tg-height=\"376\"></p>\n<p>More ominously, this also suggests<b>liquidity is likely to tighten further from here whether the Fed's begins tapering later this year or next.</b></p>\n<p>Finally, when we look at M2 data on a global basis, we get the same picture.</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c77fa806a6775bc562b18346590d26c9\" tg-width=\"613\" tg-height=\"376\"></p>\n<p>Wilson concludes that even ahead of last week's \"shock\" FOMC, the market had already started to de-rate lower into a mid-cycle transition as Fed balance sheet growth has materially slowed. Meanwhile, M2 is slowing just as rapidly and has further to fall, especially when the Fed begins to taper later this year or early next. Finally, global money supply growth is also slowing from elevated levels and every major region is contributing.</p>\n<p>This to Wilson<b>\"looks reminiscent of 2014 and 2018 when markets went through a rolling correction of risky assets\"</b>and he thinks 2021 will prove to be similar in that regard with the highest beta regions falling first (Kospi, China, Japan) and ending with the most defensive (US).</p>\n<p>Putting it all together, the MS strategist writes that \"tapering is tightening but the tightening process began with the rate of change in money supply growth. The good news is that<b>the market already knows it.</b>The bad news is that<b>a majority of investors seem to be just catching on with the Fed's \"surprise\" announcement this past week.</b>This means asset prices are far from done correcting as witnessed with the more cyclical, reflationary assets taking their turn the past few weeks.\"</p>\n<p>And while we completely agree with Wilson's newly discovered Austrian view of markets - funny how on a long enough timeline everyone turns Austrian - the real question is what will catalyze the next M2 boosting cycle, how high will it push stocks, and will the Fed be forced to come out and start buying equities this time after having nationalized the bond market back in 2020.</p>\n<p>We expect that the answer will be revealed after the next 20% drop at which point all of the Fed's hawkishness will evaporate, and Powell (or his replacement Kashkari) will shift to an uber dovish mode as they prepare to unleash the final and biggest asset bubble of all...</p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Forget Everything You Know: Morgan Stanley Reveals The Only Metric That Determines What The Market Will Do Next</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nForget Everything You Know: Morgan Stanley Reveals The Only Metric That Determines What The Market Will Do Next\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-06-22 14:55 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/forget-everything-you-know-morgan-stanley-reveals-only-metric-determines-what-market-will><strong>zerohedge</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>Traders of a certain age may recall that back in 2013, around the time the Fed's \"Taper Tantrum\" sparked a surge in yields and led to a risk asset selloff, a big (if entirely artificial) debate ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/forget-everything-you-know-morgan-stanley-reveals-only-metric-determines-what-market-will\">Source Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{".SPX":"S&P 500 Index",".DJI":"道琼斯","SPY":"标普500ETF",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite"},"source_url":"https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/forget-everything-you-know-morgan-stanley-reveals-only-metric-determines-what-market-will","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1177499959","content_text":"Traders of a certain age may recall that back in 2013, around the time the Fed's \"Taper Tantrum\" sparked a surge in yields and led to a risk asset selloff, a big (if entirely artificial) debate emerged within financial media, where the Fed muppets and their media puppets would argue that \"tapering is not tightening\" while anyone with half a brain realized knew that this was total BS.\nFast forward to today when Morgan Stanley's Michael Wilson opens up an old wound for clueless Fed apologists, saying in his latest Weekly Warm Up note that \"TaperingisTightening\"... but then adds that contrary to the market's shocked reaction to last week's Fed meeting, tightening actually began months ago.\nElaborating on this point, Wilson - who several months ago turned into Wall Street's most bearish strategist (again)-  writes this morning that while the Fed's pivot to \"begin\" the tightening discussion caught most by surprise, in reality markets began discounting this inevitable process months ago as price action had indicated. It's exactly this discounting of the coming tightening, that is what Michael Wilson's mid-cycle transition is all about, and as the strategist adds, \"fits nicely with our narrative for choppier equity markets and a 10-20% correction for the broader indices this year.\"\nOr to paraphrase Lester Burnham,\"it's all downhill from here\"...and as Wilson predicts, that won't change until M2 growth is done decelerating; or in other words, until the Fed unleashes another liquidity burst into the system \"the transition is incomplete.\"\nHighlights aside, Wilson then elaborates on each point, noting that while last week's Fed meeting brought more uncertainty to markets one thing is becoming more obvious:\"we are on the other side of the mountain with respect to monetary accommodation for this cycle.\"\nFurthermore, having repeatedlywarned that the US is now mid-cycle...\n... Wilson then takes a victory lap writing that what the Fed is doing is \"classic mid cycle transition behavior so investors really shouldn't be too surprised that the Fed would try to begin the long process of tightening.\"\n\n After all, the US economy is booming and expected to grow close to 10 percent this year in nominal terms, a feat last witnessed in 1984. Meanwhile, no matter what one's view is on inflation being transient or not, prices are up significantly and likely higher than what the Fed, or most others were expecting 6 months ago. In other words, the facts and data have changed; therefore, so should Fed policy.\n\nNevertheless, as discussed here extensively, markets reacted as if this was a complete shock with both bonds and stocks trading as if the Fed had hiked rates already (instead of leaving over $2TN in QE still on deck) after the Fed meeting. Starting with bonds, both nominal 10 year yields and breakevens fell significantly. However, breakevens fell more leaving 10 year real rates higher by almost 20 bps Wednesday afternoon.\nWhile real rates did settle back a bit on Thursday and Friday, they have formed what appears to be a very solid base from which they are likely to rise as the economy continues to recover and the Fed appropriately pivots. In Wilson's view, \"this looks very similar to 2013, the year after Peak Fed. Back then, Peak Fed was QE3 which was announced on September 12, 2012. This time Peak Fed was the announcement of Average Inflation Targeting last summer.\"\n\nThat said, there is one notable difference between the taper tantrum and today: in 2013 \"tapering\" QE was a novel concept to markets and it came more abruptly with Bernanke's surprise mention during his congressional testimony on May 22, 2013.This time, the markets understand what tapering is and see its arrival as inevitable as the economy recovers.Therefore, while the path higher for real rates is unlikely to be as dramatic as witnessed in 2013, it is still likely to be higher from here and that is a change that will affect all risk markets, including equities, in Morgan Stanley's view.\nWilson makes one final observation from the chart above, which is how real rates moved substantiallybeforeBernanke's testimony in May 2013, prompting Wilson to notes that \"perhaps it wasn't as much of a surprise as believed, at least to markets. We think it's the same situation today.\"\n\n In our view, the data has been so strong, it would be naive not to think the Fed wasn't moving closer to tapering over the past several months. In fact, the idea that the Fed hasn't been thinking and/or talking about it seems absurd. Surely the market understands this, making the events of the past week not so much of a surprise. It's all part of the mid cycle transition that has been ongoing for months and fits with the choppier price action and unstable market leadership we have been witnessing.\n\nThe underperformance of early cycle stocks is another classic signal the market \"gets it.\" Nevertheless, in talking with clients the past few days, this view is still out of consensus. Most haven't been ready for tighter monetary policy, nor did they think it's something they needed to worry about, until now.\nWrapping up the Fed \"surprise\" part of his note, Wilson writes that contrary to the FOMC shock,monetary tightening actually began months ago if one is looking at the right metric, which to the top Morgan Stanley equity strategist - who emerges as yet another closet Austrian - ismoney supply growth:\n\nIn a world where all of the major developed market central banks are stuck at the zero bound, or lower,\nthe primary metric that determines if monetary policy is getting more or less accommodative is Money Supply Growth.\n\nRealizing that to most Keynesian this will be a controversial statement to say the least, Wilson digs in and says that \"it's absolutely the case and financial markets seem to agree.\"  He explains:\n\nWhen money supply is accelerating, the more speculative / riskier assets tend to outperform and when it's decelerating these assets have more trouble. As noted here several times over the past few months, the Fed's balance sheet (M1) growth peaked in mid February and that coincided with a top in many of the most expensive/speculative stocks in the equity market just like the acceleration in the Fed's balance sheet in the prior 12 months contributed to their spectacular performance. Interestingly, the recently flattening out of the growth in M1 has coincided with more stability in these stocks, although they remain well below prior highs (Exhibit 2).\n\nAnd visually:\n\nBut wait there's more, and also an explanation why the Fed has made it virtually impossible to track the weekly change in M2 (the aggregate is now updated only monthly).\nTaking Wilson's argument a step further,M2 growth might be even more important to monitor than M1 because that's the net liquidity available to the economyandmarkets.On that front, the deceleration also began at the end of Februarybut has not yet flattened out and appears to have much further to fall to a  more \"normal\" level of annual growth— i.e., 7-8%\n\nMore ominously, this also suggestsliquidity is likely to tighten further from here whether the Fed's begins tapering later this year or next.\nFinally, when we look at M2 data on a global basis, we get the same picture.\n\nWilson concludes that even ahead of last week's \"shock\" FOMC, the market had already started to de-rate lower into a mid-cycle transition as Fed balance sheet growth has materially slowed. Meanwhile, M2 is slowing just as rapidly and has further to fall, especially when the Fed begins to taper later this year or early next. Finally, global money supply growth is also slowing from elevated levels and every major region is contributing.\nThis to Wilson\"looks reminiscent of 2014 and 2018 when markets went through a rolling correction of risky assets\"and he thinks 2021 will prove to be similar in that regard with the highest beta regions falling first (Kospi, China, Japan) and ending with the most defensive (US).\nPutting it all together, the MS strategist writes that \"tapering is tightening but the tightening process began with the rate of change in money supply growth. The good news is thatthe market already knows it.The bad news is thata majority of investors seem to be just catching on with the Fed's \"surprise\" announcement this past week.This means asset prices are far from done correcting as witnessed with the more cyclical, reflationary assets taking their turn the past few weeks.\"\nAnd while we completely agree with Wilson's newly discovered Austrian view of markets - funny how on a long enough timeline everyone turns Austrian - the real question is what will catalyze the next M2 boosting cycle, how high will it push stocks, and will the Fed be forced to come out and start buying equities this time after having nationalized the bond market back in 2020.\nWe expect that the answer will be revealed after the next 20% drop at which point all of the Fed's hawkishness will evaporate, and Powell (or his replacement Kashkari) will shift to an uber dovish mode as they prepare to unleash the final and biggest asset bubble of all...","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"SPY":0.9,".SPX":0.9,".IXIC":0.9,".DJI":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2838,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":120927661,"gmtCreate":1624292904053,"gmtModify":1703832801546,"author":{"id":"3554809676542757","authorId":"3554809676542757","name":"Twentyone","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/fa127065a0eb858d93d3bb4ee7e3ecde","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3554809676542757","idStr":"3554809676542757"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Nice","listText":"Nice","text":"Nice","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/120927661","repostId":"2145084835","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2151,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":167152491,"gmtCreate":1624254227113,"gmtModify":1703831687129,"author":{"id":"3554809676542757","authorId":"3554809676542757","name":"Twentyone","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/fa127065a0eb858d93d3bb4ee7e3ecde","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3554809676542757","idStr":"3554809676542757"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"LOL","listText":"LOL","text":"LOL","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/167152491","repostId":"1156318495","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1156318495","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1624247255,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1156318495?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2021-06-21 11:47","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Evergrande Bounces After Hitting Four-Year Low, Squeezing Shorts","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1156318495","media":"Bloomberg","summary":"(Bloomberg) -- China Evergrande Group shares posted wild swings on Monday, rallying as much as 7% af","content":"<p>(Bloomberg) -- China Evergrande Group shares posted wild swings on Monday, rallying as much as 7% after touching a four-year low in Hong Kong, squeezing short sellers.</p>\n<p>Shares of Chinese billionaire Hui Ka Yan’s flagship property developer jumped to as much as HK$10.60, rebounding from the lowest since May 2017. The stock has dropped about 50% since he clinched a deal with investors to avert a cash crunch in September.</p>\n<p>Short interest in Evergrande shares has surged threefold in three weeks, putting investors betting on further declines at risk of a so-called short squeeze if prices move against them. Compounding those risks, the developer has turned to its favored tactic of repurchasing shares to force bearish speculators out of their positions. It spent about HK$529 million ($68 million) on buybacks since June 7, according to Bloomberg calculations.</p>\n<p>It’s not surprising that some investors are betting on a short-term rebound after the shares lost more than 40% from their January high, Castor Pang, head of research at Core Pacific Yamaichi, said by phone. Investors may also speculating on further buybacks by Evergrande to combat short sellers, he said.</p>\n<p>Short interest in Evergrande reached 22.8% of the company’s free float as of Thursday, the highest level since September 2018, data compiled by IHS Markit and Bloomberg show.</p>\n<p>There are so few Evergrande shares readily available that traders would need about 22 days to cover their bearish bets -- or buy back borrowed stock to close out an open short position. That increases the risk of a short squeeze, when hedge funds are forced to liquidate their positions at increasingly higher prices.</p>\n<p>Worries over the future of the world’s most indebted developer have grown in recent weeks after affiliates missed payments and Caixin Media’s WeNews reported that regulators are looking into Evergrande’s ties to Shengjing Bank Co. in northern China. Bondholders have rushed for the exit too, with a key dollar note trading near its lowest level since April 2020.</p>\n<p>The selloff worsened after WeNews reported last week that a local government discussed with Evergrande about paring its stake in Shengjing Bank, and the banking watchdog said it would curb a key source of financing for developers to control risk.</p>\n<p>The plunge in the shares has hurt the wealth of founder Hui. At $17 billion, his net worth has tumbled by more than a third since September.</p>\n<p>Evergrande’s long-dated dollar bonds were almost unchanged on Monday even as some short-dated notes have staged a comeback. Its 8.75% note due 2025 is indicated at 72.3 cents on the dollar early Monday, according to Bloomberg-compiled prices.</p>","source":"lsy1612507957220","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Evergrande Bounces After Hitting Four-Year Low, Squeezing Shorts</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nEvergrande Bounces After Hitting Four-Year Low, Squeezing Shorts\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-06-21 11:47 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://finance.yahoo.com/news/evergrande-bounces-hitting-four-low-025344866.html><strong>Bloomberg</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>(Bloomberg) -- China Evergrande Group shares posted wild swings on Monday, rallying as much as 7% after touching a four-year low in Hong Kong, squeezing short sellers.\nShares of Chinese billionaire ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://finance.yahoo.com/news/evergrande-bounces-hitting-four-low-025344866.html\">Source Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"03333":"中国恒大"},"source_url":"https://finance.yahoo.com/news/evergrande-bounces-hitting-four-low-025344866.html","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1156318495","content_text":"(Bloomberg) -- China Evergrande Group shares posted wild swings on Monday, rallying as much as 7% after touching a four-year low in Hong Kong, squeezing short sellers.\nShares of Chinese billionaire Hui Ka Yan’s flagship property developer jumped to as much as HK$10.60, rebounding from the lowest since May 2017. The stock has dropped about 50% since he clinched a deal with investors to avert a cash crunch in September.\nShort interest in Evergrande shares has surged threefold in three weeks, putting investors betting on further declines at risk of a so-called short squeeze if prices move against them. Compounding those risks, the developer has turned to its favored tactic of repurchasing shares to force bearish speculators out of their positions. It spent about HK$529 million ($68 million) on buybacks since June 7, according to Bloomberg calculations.\nIt’s not surprising that some investors are betting on a short-term rebound after the shares lost more than 40% from their January high, Castor Pang, head of research at Core Pacific Yamaichi, said by phone. Investors may also speculating on further buybacks by Evergrande to combat short sellers, he said.\nShort interest in Evergrande reached 22.8% of the company’s free float as of Thursday, the highest level since September 2018, data compiled by IHS Markit and Bloomberg show.\nThere are so few Evergrande shares readily available that traders would need about 22 days to cover their bearish bets -- or buy back borrowed stock to close out an open short position. That increases the risk of a short squeeze, when hedge funds are forced to liquidate their positions at increasingly higher prices.\nWorries over the future of the world’s most indebted developer have grown in recent weeks after affiliates missed payments and Caixin Media’s WeNews reported that regulators are looking into Evergrande’s ties to Shengjing Bank Co. in northern China. Bondholders have rushed for the exit too, with a key dollar note trading near its lowest level since April 2020.\nThe selloff worsened after WeNews reported last week that a local government discussed with Evergrande about paring its stake in Shengjing Bank, and the banking watchdog said it would curb a key source of financing for developers to control risk.\nThe plunge in the shares has hurt the wealth of founder Hui. At $17 billion, his net worth has tumbled by more than a third since September.\nEvergrande’s long-dated dollar bonds were almost unchanged on Monday even as some short-dated notes have staged a comeback. Its 8.75% note due 2025 is indicated at 72.3 cents on the dollar early Monday, according to Bloomberg-compiled prices.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"03333":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":868,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":167156067,"gmtCreate":1624254116259,"gmtModify":1703831683676,"author":{"id":"3554809676542757","authorId":"3554809676542757","name":"Twentyone","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/fa127065a0eb858d93d3bb4ee7e3ecde","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3554809676542757","idStr":"3554809676542757"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Oof","listText":"Oof","text":"Oof","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/167156067","repostId":"2145083892","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1099,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":167158268,"gmtCreate":1624254098354,"gmtModify":1703831683184,"author":{"id":"3554809676542757","authorId":"3554809676542757","name":"Twentyone","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/fa127065a0eb858d93d3bb4ee7e3ecde","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3554809676542757","idStr":"3554809676542757"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Sad","listText":"Sad","text":"Sad","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/167158268","repostId":"2145835050","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"2145835050","kind":"highlight","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"Reuters.com brings you the latest news from around the world, covering breaking news in markets, business, politics, entertainment and technology","home_visible":1,"media_name":"Reuters","id":"1036604489","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/443ce19704621c837795676028cec868"},"pubTimestamp":1624252213,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/2145835050?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2021-06-21 13:10","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Thousands of Commonwealth Edison customers without power as severe storms hit Chicago","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2145835050","media":"Reuters","summary":"June 21 (Reuters) - Chicago-area utility Commonwealth Edison's (ComEd) website showed that over 34,0","content":"<p>June 21 (Reuters) - Chicago-area utility Commonwealth Edison's (ComEd) website showed that over 34,000 customers were without power as severe thunderstorms tore through the area on Sunday night.</p>\n<p>The website of ComEd, a unit of Exelon Corp , showed more than 14,000 customers were without power in the DuPage County alone in Illinois while over 13,000 customers were in the dark in the Cook County.</p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Thousands of Commonwealth Edison customers without power as severe storms hit Chicago</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; 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overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nThousands of Commonwealth Edison customers without power as severe storms hit Chicago\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/1036604489\">\n\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/443ce19704621c837795676028cec868);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">Reuters </p>\n<p class=\"h-time\">2021-06-21 13:10</p>\n</div>\n\n</a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>June 21 (Reuters) - Chicago-area utility Commonwealth Edison's (ComEd) website showed that over 34,000 customers were without power as severe thunderstorms tore through the area on Sunday night.</p>\n<p>The website of ComEd, a unit of Exelon Corp , showed more than 14,000 customers were without power in the DuPage County alone in Illinois while over 13,000 customers were in the dark in the Cook County.</p>\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"CQXL":"Commonwealth Edison Co."},"is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2145835050","content_text":"June 21 (Reuters) - Chicago-area utility Commonwealth Edison's (ComEd) website showed that over 34,000 customers were without power as severe thunderstorms tore through the area on Sunday night.\nThe website of ComEd, a unit of Exelon Corp , showed more than 14,000 customers were without power in the DuPage County alone in Illinois while over 13,000 customers were in the dark in the Cook County.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"CQXL":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1114,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":167153172,"gmtCreate":1624253911096,"gmtModify":1703831680210,"author":{"id":"3554809676542757","authorId":"3554809676542757","name":"Twentyone","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/fa127065a0eb858d93d3bb4ee7e3ecde","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3554809676542757","idStr":"3554809676542757"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Nice","listText":"Nice","text":"Nice","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/167153172","repostId":"1175906479","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1175906479","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1624242000,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1175906479?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2021-06-21 10:20","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Apple: Winter Is Coming","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1175906479","media":"seekingalpha","summary":"Apple's stock has rallied 449% in the last five years, outperforming the 102% rise in the S&P 500 over the same period.I initiate Apple with a Neutral rating and a fair value of $111.42/share .In the enterprise market, customers across many industries are accelerating their adoption of iPhone 12 and 5G as a key platform for the future of their business. Delta Airlines, for example, is putting iPhone 12 and 5G connectivity into the hands of flight attendants so they can provide the best passenger","content":"<p><b>Summary</b></p>\n<ul>\n <li>Apple's stock has rallied 449% in the last five years, outperforming the 102% rise in the S&amp;P 500 over the same period.</li>\n <li>I initiate Apple with a Neutral rating and a fair value of $111.42/share (vs. the current price of $131.7/share).</li>\n <li>From the technical analysis point of view, the stock price is following its ascending triangle pattern and it is heading to the price target of $137/share.</li>\n</ul>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a4dc5052119e6bbc5b693cf7385d8738\" tg-width=\"768\" tg-height=\"512\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><span>Michael M. Santiago/Getty Images NewsCompany Overview</span></p>\n<p>Apple Inc (AAPL) stock has rallied 449% in the last five years, outperforming the 102% rise in the S&amp;P 500 over the same period. An outstanding return supported by underlying fundamentals. In particular, I would like to start the analysis with the latter.</p>\n<p>Over the last two decades, the dominant driver of Apple's success has been the iPhone. In 2016, iPhones accounted for 63% of total sales. This was a problem for Apple, and they knew it. The problem existed due to two main factors: first, the smartphone business was mature (with low growth rates); second, it was (and it is) a highly competitive business. However, Apple had something other competitors didn't have, a big iPhone owner base (which allows to sell more services for instance). Through the years Apple has been able to effectively diversify its revenue stream and it currently presents the structure represented below.</p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4602be0c6fa92191baf04a7496c4e024\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"363\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><span>Source:Author's estimates using data from the latest 10-K report</span></p>\n<p>Let's now take a look at each of these segments:</p>\n<p><b>1. iPhone</b></p>\n<p>From 2016 to 2020, the iPhone segment grew at a CAGR of 0.20% and it changed from representing 63.4% (2016) of total sales to 51% (\"TTM\"). I present below the growth rate for the iPhone segment over the last 5 years (2016-TTM).</p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/916b48499e3e3ed2c0c167af3ba62bdb\" tg-width=\"607\" tg-height=\"363\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><span>Source:Author's estimates using data from the latest10-K report</span></p>\n<p>So far this year the iPhone segment is showing a growth rate of 18.5% TTM, fueled by the new family of iPhone12 with 5G capabilities, and with interesting data coming from China. I believe that the transition to 5G will be the main driver of the growth in this segment. In this manner, I would like to report a piece of the transcript from theQ2 earnings call.</p>\n<blockquote>\n <i>In the enterprise market, customers across many industries are accelerating their adoption of iPhone 12 and 5G as a key platform for the future of their business. Delta Airlines, for example, is putting iPhone 12 and 5G connectivity into the hands of flight attendants so they can provide the best passenger service possible as air travel rebounds.Openreach in the U.K. has started equipping tens of thousands of field engineers with iPhone 12 to speed up their deployment of broadband services to homes around the country. And UCHealth, a large health care provider in Colorado, was able to reduce per patient vaccination time from 3 minutes to only 30 seconds largely by moving from PC stations to iPhones. This has allowed their staff to rapidly scan and register new patients and vastly increase their daily vaccination capacity.</i>\n</blockquote>\n<p><b>2. iPad</b></p>\n<p>As it was in the past, the iPad segment is more or less a constant number as a % of total sales, 9.6% in 2016 vs 9.1% TTM. From 2016 to 2020, the iPad segment grew at a CAGR of 3.56% (with an improving overall trend). I present below the growth rate for the iPad segment over the last 5 years (2016-TTM).</p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6faf9ddb8d29d662fcaa46bbda862f48\" tg-width=\"616\" tg-height=\"360\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><span>Source:Author's estimates using data from the latest 10-K report</span></p>\n<p>The TTM numbers show us an interesting picture with a growth rate of 24.9% TTM for the iPad segment which are driven by 3 factors: the M1 chip, the new 5G capabilities, and the fact that we were all at home. I see a lot of ways in which this new generation of iPads can be implemented. However, I also have to admit that there is a big player swimming in the same sea, the new 2-1 Laptops. The new 2-1 Laptops are a very interesting solution for those looking to have the best of the two worlds. In this last view, the iPad segment may represent a lower % of total sales, around 7.8% (vs current 9.1%).</p>\n<p><b>3. Mac</b></p>\n<p>From 2016 to 2020, the Mac segment grew at a CAGR of 5.81%, and also here, as it is for the iPad segment, the Mac segment represents a more or less constant number as % of total sales 10.6% in 2016 vs 10.4% TTM. I present below the growth rate for the Mac segment over the last 5 years (2016-TTM).</p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b2494d89c1d5cd70a4cf0c5fb31fb20a\" tg-width=\"614\" tg-height=\"363\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><span>Source:Author's estimates using data from the latest 10-K report</span></p>\n<p>The generation of new Macs powered by the M1 chip seems to be appreciated by the customers, in fact, the Mac segment presents a growth rate of 18.4% TTM so far this year. I personally tried this new generation of Macs and I have to admit, Apple knows very well how to delight its customers. Personal PCs are a highly competitive market and, even if I like and I use Apple products, I prefer to work with a Lenovo.</p>\n<p><b>4. Wearables, Home, and Accessories (WH&amp;A)</b></p>\n<p>The Wearables, Home, and Accessories segment includes sales of AirPods, Apple TV, Apple Watch, Beats products, HomePod, etc. This is where it gets interesting. From 2016 to 2020, the WH&amp;A segment grew at a CAGR of 28.78%, and it changed from representing only 5.2% of total sales in 2016 to represent 10.8% TTM. I present below the growth rate for the WH&amp;A segment over the last 5 years (2016-TTM).</p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e16432a1ae66aa9dda7a4f969a9cfcdf\" tg-width=\"607\" tg-height=\"357\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><span>Source:Author's estimates using data from the latest 10-K report</span></p>\n<p>The WH&amp;A segment is showing a growth rate of 14.7% TTM driven by a strong performance from both Apple Watch Series 6 and Apple Watch SE. Apple Watch may have a very bright future in the years ahead, driven by Apple entering into the healthcare market. In fact, it can be used to monitor the health status of the person. Imagine you being close to having a heart attack, your Apple Watch may call an ambulance and save your life, not bad no? Finally, let's don't forget also the launch of Apple TV 4K and of the newest accessory, AirTag (I don't see a market for the latter, but I may be wrong).</p>\n<p><b>5. Services</b></p>\n<p>Services include sales from the Company’s advertising, AppleCare, digital content, and other services. From 2016 to 2020, the Services segment grew at a CAGR of 21.9% and it changed from representing 11.3% of total sales in 2016 to represent 18.6% TTM. I present below the growth rate for the Services segment over the last 5 years (2016-TTM).</p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/af34eb1ba8fffd690a75318f8cf805f7\" tg-width=\"610\" tg-height=\"363\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><span>Source:Author's estimates using data from the latest 10-K report</span></p>\n<p>To date, the Services segment is showing a growth rate of 12.3% TTM. The growth is driven by App Store, Cloud Services, Music, Advertising, and Payment Services. The new services, Apple TV+, Apple Arcade, Apple News+, and Apple Card, are also starting to contribute to overall services growth, and continue to add users, content, and features. I believe that in the future, the Services segment will be the company's dominant segment. Below I present an interesting part I extrapolated from theQ4 earnings call.</p>\n<blockquote>\n <i>First, our installed base continues to grow and is at an all-time high across each major product category. Second, the number of both transacting and paid accounts on our digital content stores reached a new all-time high during the September quarter, with paid accounts increasing double digits in each of our geographic segments.Third, paid subscriptions grew more than 35 million sequentially, and we now have over 585 million paid subscriptions across the services on our platform, up 135 million from just a year ago. With this momentum, we are very confident to reach and exceed our increased target of 600 million paid subscriptions before the end of calendar 2020.</i>\n</blockquote>\n<p><b>Company Analysis</b></p>\n<p>I initiate Apple with a Neutral rating and a fair value of $111.42/share (vs. the current price of $131.7/share). The fair value is an algorithm-adjusted value that accounts for different factors, fundamental and technical (e.g. DCF fair value, Momentum, etc.), and so it takes into consideration the Mr. Market mood. At the same time, the fair value which I obtained through the DCF model is equal to $105.68/share. Now before showing the results, the numbers used as the base are the trailing twelve-month numbers. Moreover, I also restated the financials since I capitalized on R&amp;D expenses with an amortizable life of 3 years. I don't believe that in the case of Apple, R&amp;D is an operating expense and for this reason, I treat it as CapEx. By taking into account the R&amp;D, the following metrics have been restated (all numbers in $mm).</p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f7a2222a8e8b9088e619b0b971193a1f\" tg-width=\"569\" tg-height=\"262\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><span>Source:Author's estimates using data from the latest 10-K report</span></p>\n<p>It is very important to capitalize on R&amp;D expense, if we don't, we are just keeping the company's biggest asset off-balance sheet.</p>\n<p><b>Discounted Cash Flow Model</b></p>\n<p>Now, let's turn to the discounted cash flow valuation part. Below, you can see the results with the relative assumptions I have made.</p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b2da633d931f51b493d897d9c87ecee5\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"262\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><span>Source:Author's estimates using data from the latest 10-K report</span></p>\n<p>Now, this time I also present along with my estimates three possible scenarios:</p>\n<ul>\n <li><i>Base Case Scenario</i>: The above DCF model represents my base case scenario. In the base case scenario, I assume the drivers of growth to be: the iPhone segment (driven by 5G transition), the Services segment (driven by a broader customer base), and the new powered M1 Macs segment. Under this scenario, I assume a Y1 growth rate of 12%, a CAGR Y2-Y5 of 7.1%, and a target operating margin in Y10 of 27%. The DCF fair value under this scenario is $105.68/share.</li>\n <li><i>Best Case Scenario</i>: The business is booming! In the best-case scenario, I see again as the main drivers the one which I described for the base case scenario, however, in addition, I see a greater market penetration in China. Over the last 5 years, we can observe a falling pattern for sales in China, however, this year sales jumped 39.7% (with the iPhone segment rising substantially). Under this scenario, I assume a Y1 growth rate of 14%, a CAGR Y2-Y5 of 9.1%, and a target operating margin in Y10 of 30%. The DCF fair value under this scenario is $130.32/share.</li>\n <li><i>Worst Case Scenario</i>: Well, this is a scenario that I would like to call like \"mature company scenario\". Under this scenario I see Apple growing a little above the growth rate of the economy and for this reason, I assume a Y1 growth rate of 10%, a CAGR Y2-Y5 of 3.1%, and a target operating margin in Y10 of 25%. The DCF fair value under this scenario is $81.03/share.</li>\n</ul>\n<p>Finally, for each scenario, I see Apple entering into the health care market with its Apple Watch. As you can imagine, I assign a different likelihood of market penetration in each of these scenarios.</p>\n<p><b>Sensitivity Analysis</b></p>\n<p>Moreover, I also would like to provide the sensitivity analysis for the base case scenario.</p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/95f00eba768526d07d68fd846ecf998d\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"462\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><span>Source:Author's estimates using data from the latest 10-K report</span></p>\n<p><b>Technical Analysis</b></p>\n<p>From the technical analysis point of view, I don't see any problem yet. The stock price is in a bullish mode, currently within an ascending triangle pattern. As of right now, the stock price is following its pattern and it is heading to the price target of $137/share or point D, where it is likely to bounce and head back to point E. If this scenario happens, point E is usually the point where stock price bounces once again and from that point, the stock goes higher (it is just a technical analysis assumption, take it as is).</p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ecf3e5f45dcb5e30b092c02bbf94d6f9\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"317\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><span>Source:TradingView.com</span></p>\n<p><b>Final Thoughts</b></p>\n<p>Apple is a mature company that is able to see a problem and solve it years ahead. By looking at the fair value, computed under the base case scenario, we can argue that the stock is currently overvalued but not by that much. For what concern risks, the difference between the best-case and the worst-case scenario can be used as a proxy of risk. Taking this into consideration I don't see big reasoning to panic, however, it is also true that I see an upcoming correction for the market. Many indicators, technical and fundamental, are suggesting to me that the market is too heavy right now (even if the S&amp;P500 may go higher, perhaps in the 4400 area). To conclude, I don't think to close out my whole Apple position, however, I will close out 60% of it once it reaches my price target.</p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Apple: Winter Is Coming</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nApple: Winter Is Coming\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-06-21 10:20 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://seekingalpha.com/article/4435760-apple-stock-aapl-winter-is-coming><strong>seekingalpha</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>Summary\n\nApple's stock has rallied 449% in the last five years, outperforming the 102% rise in the S&P 500 over the same period.\nI initiate Apple with a Neutral rating and a fair value of $111.42/...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4435760-apple-stock-aapl-winter-is-coming\">Source Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"AAPL":"苹果"},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4435760-apple-stock-aapl-winter-is-coming","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1175906479","content_text":"Summary\n\nApple's stock has rallied 449% in the last five years, outperforming the 102% rise in the S&P 500 over the same period.\nI initiate Apple with a Neutral rating and a fair value of $111.42/share (vs. the current price of $131.7/share).\nFrom the technical analysis point of view, the stock price is following its ascending triangle pattern and it is heading to the price target of $137/share.\n\nMichael M. Santiago/Getty Images NewsCompany Overview\nApple Inc (AAPL) stock has rallied 449% in the last five years, outperforming the 102% rise in the S&P 500 over the same period. An outstanding return supported by underlying fundamentals. In particular, I would like to start the analysis with the latter.\nOver the last two decades, the dominant driver of Apple's success has been the iPhone. In 2016, iPhones accounted for 63% of total sales. This was a problem for Apple, and they knew it. The problem existed due to two main factors: first, the smartphone business was mature (with low growth rates); second, it was (and it is) a highly competitive business. However, Apple had something other competitors didn't have, a big iPhone owner base (which allows to sell more services for instance). Through the years Apple has been able to effectively diversify its revenue stream and it currently presents the structure represented below.\nSource:Author's estimates using data from the latest 10-K report\nLet's now take a look at each of these segments:\n1. iPhone\nFrom 2016 to 2020, the iPhone segment grew at a CAGR of 0.20% and it changed from representing 63.4% (2016) of total sales to 51% (\"TTM\"). I present below the growth rate for the iPhone segment over the last 5 years (2016-TTM).\nSource:Author's estimates using data from the latest10-K report\nSo far this year the iPhone segment is showing a growth rate of 18.5% TTM, fueled by the new family of iPhone12 with 5G capabilities, and with interesting data coming from China. I believe that the transition to 5G will be the main driver of the growth in this segment. In this manner, I would like to report a piece of the transcript from theQ2 earnings call.\n\nIn the enterprise market, customers across many industries are accelerating their adoption of iPhone 12 and 5G as a key platform for the future of their business. Delta Airlines, for example, is putting iPhone 12 and 5G connectivity into the hands of flight attendants so they can provide the best passenger service possible as air travel rebounds.Openreach in the U.K. has started equipping tens of thousands of field engineers with iPhone 12 to speed up their deployment of broadband services to homes around the country. And UCHealth, a large health care provider in Colorado, was able to reduce per patient vaccination time from 3 minutes to only 30 seconds largely by moving from PC stations to iPhones. This has allowed their staff to rapidly scan and register new patients and vastly increase their daily vaccination capacity.\n\n2. iPad\nAs it was in the past, the iPad segment is more or less a constant number as a % of total sales, 9.6% in 2016 vs 9.1% TTM. From 2016 to 2020, the iPad segment grew at a CAGR of 3.56% (with an improving overall trend). I present below the growth rate for the iPad segment over the last 5 years (2016-TTM).\nSource:Author's estimates using data from the latest 10-K report\nThe TTM numbers show us an interesting picture with a growth rate of 24.9% TTM for the iPad segment which are driven by 3 factors: the M1 chip, the new 5G capabilities, and the fact that we were all at home. I see a lot of ways in which this new generation of iPads can be implemented. However, I also have to admit that there is a big player swimming in the same sea, the new 2-1 Laptops. The new 2-1 Laptops are a very interesting solution for those looking to have the best of the two worlds. In this last view, the iPad segment may represent a lower % of total sales, around 7.8% (vs current 9.1%).\n3. Mac\nFrom 2016 to 2020, the Mac segment grew at a CAGR of 5.81%, and also here, as it is for the iPad segment, the Mac segment represents a more or less constant number as % of total sales 10.6% in 2016 vs 10.4% TTM. I present below the growth rate for the Mac segment over the last 5 years (2016-TTM).\nSource:Author's estimates using data from the latest 10-K report\nThe generation of new Macs powered by the M1 chip seems to be appreciated by the customers, in fact, the Mac segment presents a growth rate of 18.4% TTM so far this year. I personally tried this new generation of Macs and I have to admit, Apple knows very well how to delight its customers. Personal PCs are a highly competitive market and, even if I like and I use Apple products, I prefer to work with a Lenovo.\n4. Wearables, Home, and Accessories (WH&A)\nThe Wearables, Home, and Accessories segment includes sales of AirPods, Apple TV, Apple Watch, Beats products, HomePod, etc. This is where it gets interesting. From 2016 to 2020, the WH&A segment grew at a CAGR of 28.78%, and it changed from representing only 5.2% of total sales in 2016 to represent 10.8% TTM. I present below the growth rate for the WH&A segment over the last 5 years (2016-TTM).\nSource:Author's estimates using data from the latest 10-K report\nThe WH&A segment is showing a growth rate of 14.7% TTM driven by a strong performance from both Apple Watch Series 6 and Apple Watch SE. Apple Watch may have a very bright future in the years ahead, driven by Apple entering into the healthcare market. In fact, it can be used to monitor the health status of the person. Imagine you being close to having a heart attack, your Apple Watch may call an ambulance and save your life, not bad no? Finally, let's don't forget also the launch of Apple TV 4K and of the newest accessory, AirTag (I don't see a market for the latter, but I may be wrong).\n5. Services\nServices include sales from the Company’s advertising, AppleCare, digital content, and other services. From 2016 to 2020, the Services segment grew at a CAGR of 21.9% and it changed from representing 11.3% of total sales in 2016 to represent 18.6% TTM. I present below the growth rate for the Services segment over the last 5 years (2016-TTM).\nSource:Author's estimates using data from the latest 10-K report\nTo date, the Services segment is showing a growth rate of 12.3% TTM. The growth is driven by App Store, Cloud Services, Music, Advertising, and Payment Services. The new services, Apple TV+, Apple Arcade, Apple News+, and Apple Card, are also starting to contribute to overall services growth, and continue to add users, content, and features. I believe that in the future, the Services segment will be the company's dominant segment. Below I present an interesting part I extrapolated from theQ4 earnings call.\n\nFirst, our installed base continues to grow and is at an all-time high across each major product category. Second, the number of both transacting and paid accounts on our digital content stores reached a new all-time high during the September quarter, with paid accounts increasing double digits in each of our geographic segments.Third, paid subscriptions grew more than 35 million sequentially, and we now have over 585 million paid subscriptions across the services on our platform, up 135 million from just a year ago. With this momentum, we are very confident to reach and exceed our increased target of 600 million paid subscriptions before the end of calendar 2020.\n\nCompany Analysis\nI initiate Apple with a Neutral rating and a fair value of $111.42/share (vs. the current price of $131.7/share). The fair value is an algorithm-adjusted value that accounts for different factors, fundamental and technical (e.g. DCF fair value, Momentum, etc.), and so it takes into consideration the Mr. Market mood. At the same time, the fair value which I obtained through the DCF model is equal to $105.68/share. Now before showing the results, the numbers used as the base are the trailing twelve-month numbers. Moreover, I also restated the financials since I capitalized on R&D expenses with an amortizable life of 3 years. I don't believe that in the case of Apple, R&D is an operating expense and for this reason, I treat it as CapEx. By taking into account the R&D, the following metrics have been restated (all numbers in $mm).\nSource:Author's estimates using data from the latest 10-K report\nIt is very important to capitalize on R&D expense, if we don't, we are just keeping the company's biggest asset off-balance sheet.\nDiscounted Cash Flow Model\nNow, let's turn to the discounted cash flow valuation part. Below, you can see the results with the relative assumptions I have made.\nSource:Author's estimates using data from the latest 10-K report\nNow, this time I also present along with my estimates three possible scenarios:\n\nBase Case Scenario: The above DCF model represents my base case scenario. In the base case scenario, I assume the drivers of growth to be: the iPhone segment (driven by 5G transition), the Services segment (driven by a broader customer base), and the new powered M1 Macs segment. Under this scenario, I assume a Y1 growth rate of 12%, a CAGR Y2-Y5 of 7.1%, and a target operating margin in Y10 of 27%. The DCF fair value under this scenario is $105.68/share.\nBest Case Scenario: The business is booming! In the best-case scenario, I see again as the main drivers the one which I described for the base case scenario, however, in addition, I see a greater market penetration in China. Over the last 5 years, we can observe a falling pattern for sales in China, however, this year sales jumped 39.7% (with the iPhone segment rising substantially). Under this scenario, I assume a Y1 growth rate of 14%, a CAGR Y2-Y5 of 9.1%, and a target operating margin in Y10 of 30%. The DCF fair value under this scenario is $130.32/share.\nWorst Case Scenario: Well, this is a scenario that I would like to call like \"mature company scenario\". Under this scenario I see Apple growing a little above the growth rate of the economy and for this reason, I assume a Y1 growth rate of 10%, a CAGR Y2-Y5 of 3.1%, and a target operating margin in Y10 of 25%. The DCF fair value under this scenario is $81.03/share.\n\nFinally, for each scenario, I see Apple entering into the health care market with its Apple Watch. As you can imagine, I assign a different likelihood of market penetration in each of these scenarios.\nSensitivity Analysis\nMoreover, I also would like to provide the sensitivity analysis for the base case scenario.\nSource:Author's estimates using data from the latest 10-K report\nTechnical Analysis\nFrom the technical analysis point of view, I don't see any problem yet. The stock price is in a bullish mode, currently within an ascending triangle pattern. As of right now, the stock price is following its pattern and it is heading to the price target of $137/share or point D, where it is likely to bounce and head back to point E. If this scenario happens, point E is usually the point where stock price bounces once again and from that point, the stock goes higher (it is just a technical analysis assumption, take it as is).\nSource:TradingView.com\nFinal Thoughts\nApple is a mature company that is able to see a problem and solve it years ahead. By looking at the fair value, computed under the base case scenario, we can argue that the stock is currently overvalued but not by that much. For what concern risks, the difference between the best-case and the worst-case scenario can be used as a proxy of risk. Taking this into consideration I don't see big reasoning to panic, however, it is also true that I see an upcoming correction for the market. Many indicators, technical and fundamental, are suggesting to me that the market is too heavy right now (even if the S&P500 may go higher, perhaps in the 4400 area). To conclude, I don't think to close out my whole Apple position, however, I will close out 60% of it once it reaches my price target.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"AAPL":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1522,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":182611255,"gmtCreate":1623568099977,"gmtModify":1704206385661,"author":{"id":"3554809676542757","authorId":"3554809676542757","name":"Twentyone","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/fa127065a0eb858d93d3bb4ee7e3ecde","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3554809676542757","idStr":"3554809676542757"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Great","listText":"Great","text":"Great","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/182611255","repostId":"1185020128","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1185020128","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1623537503,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1185020128?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2021-06-13 06:38","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Meme Stock Soars 1,000% To Lead These Two Top Small Cap Stock Plays","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1185020128","media":"investors","summary":"GameStop may be the top holding in SPDR S&P 600 Small Cap Value, but that's not the only reason the ","content":"<p>GameStop may be the top holding in SPDR S&amp;P 600 Small Cap Value, but that's not the only reason the ETF is beating its growth-stock counterpart.</p>\n<p>The $4.2 billion value fund tracks the S&amp;P SmallCap 600 Value Index (SLYV), composed of stocks with the strongest value traits based on book value to price ratio, earnings to price ratio, and sales to price ratio. SLYV rallied 32% this year through Thursday's close.</p>\n<p>That more than doubles the return of its growth stock counterpart, SPDR S&amp;P 600 Small Cap Growth (SLYG), which is up 15%. The index SLYG tracks includes stocks with the strongest growth traits based on sales growth, earnings change to price and momentum.</p>\n<p>Back to SLYV, financials accounted for the biggest sector weight at 24% of assets. Industrials weighed in at about 17%, consumer discretionary 15% and real estate 10%. Information technology was next at 8% and materials, energy and health care, 6% each.&nbsp;Smaller positions in consumer staples, utilities and communication services made up the rest.</p>\n<p>SPDR S&amp;P 600 Small Cap Value is in IBD's ETF Leaders, but SPDR S&amp;P 600 Small Cap Growth is not.</p>\n<p><b>GameStop Stock Leads</b></p>\n<p><b>GameStop</b>(GME),<b>Macy's</b>(M),<b>PDC Energy</b>(PDCE),<b>Resideo Technologies</b>(REZI) and<b>BankUnited</b>(BKU) were the top five holdings as of Wednesday.</p>\n<p><b>Pacific Premier Bancorp</b>(PPBI),<b>Bed Bath &amp; Beyond</b>(BBBY),<b>Ameris Bancorp</b>(ABCB),<b>First Hawaiian</b>(FHB) and<b>Insight Enterprises</b>(NSIT) rounded out the top 10.</p>\n<p>GameStop has undergone wide swings this year. It rocketed about 2,500% early this year amid theshort-squeeze rallyfueled by the Reddit/WallStreetBets crowd.GME stockthen crashed 92% from a Jan. 28 high to its mid-February low. That was followed by an 805% surge the next three weeks, and a 66% drop over the next two weeks.</p>\n<p>Action had been relatively subdued since, until Thursday's 27% dive. Even after that, GameStop stock was up 1,070% year to date through Thursday's close.</p>\n<p>Could GME be inflating SLYV's performance? Certainly, given its quadruple-digit gain. But a look at SLYG's portfolio is interesting. GameStop stock is also the top holding in the growth stock ETF, though the rest of the top 10 differ vastly.</p>\n<p><b>Second Meme Stock In Top 10</b></p>\n<p>PDC Energy, up 130%, saw the next biggest gain in the top 10. The Colorado-based oil and gas explorer has a 97Relative Strength Rating, which mean it's in the top 3% of all stocks. Its relative strength line is at a 52-week high, a bullish sign.</p>\n<p>Bed Bath &amp; Beyond, another meme stock, is up 78% this year. Shares surged more than 200% in January, amid a spate of wild double-digit swings. BBBY stock then gave back the bulk of its gains.</p>\n<p>But the home goods retailer appears to be back on the radar of the WallStreetBets discussion group. On June 2, Bed Bath &amp; Beyond soared 62% before diving 28% the next session.</p>\n<p>The rest of the top 10 stocks have also outperformed the broader market. Macy's is up 68% year to date, while Resideo, Pacific Premier and Ameris have risen more than 40% each. The lowest gainer, bank holding company First Hawaiian, has advanced 20%. The S&amp;P 500 held a 13% gain through Thursday's close.</p>\n<p>SLYV remains in potential buy range from an 87.29entryof acup with handle, according toMarketSmithchart analysis.&nbsp;SLYV and SLYG charge a 0.15% expense ratio.</p>","source":"lsy1610449120050","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Meme Stock Soars 1,000% To Lead These Two Top Small Cap Stock Plays</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nMeme Stock Soars 1,000% To Lead These Two Top Small Cap Stock Plays\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-06-13 06:38 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://www.investors.com/etfs-and-funds/etf-leaders/gamestop-stock-soars-1000-percent-lead-two-top-small-cap-stock-plays/?src=A00220><strong>investors</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>GameStop may be the top holding in SPDR S&P 600 Small Cap Value, but that's not the only reason the ETF is beating its growth-stock counterpart.\nThe $4.2 billion value fund tracks the S&P SmallCap 600...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://www.investors.com/etfs-and-funds/etf-leaders/gamestop-stock-soars-1000-percent-lead-two-top-small-cap-stock-plays/?src=A00220\">Source Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"BBBY":"Bed Bath & Beyond, Inc.","PDCE":"PDC Energy"},"source_url":"https://www.investors.com/etfs-and-funds/etf-leaders/gamestop-stock-soars-1000-percent-lead-two-top-small-cap-stock-plays/?src=A00220","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1185020128","content_text":"GameStop may be the top holding in SPDR S&P 600 Small Cap Value, but that's not the only reason the ETF is beating its growth-stock counterpart.\nThe $4.2 billion value fund tracks the S&P SmallCap 600 Value Index (SLYV), composed of stocks with the strongest value traits based on book value to price ratio, earnings to price ratio, and sales to price ratio. SLYV rallied 32% this year through Thursday's close.\nThat more than doubles the return of its growth stock counterpart, SPDR S&P 600 Small Cap Growth (SLYG), which is up 15%. The index SLYG tracks includes stocks with the strongest growth traits based on sales growth, earnings change to price and momentum.\nBack to SLYV, financials accounted for the biggest sector weight at 24% of assets. Industrials weighed in at about 17%, consumer discretionary 15% and real estate 10%. Information technology was next at 8% and materials, energy and health care, 6% each. Smaller positions in consumer staples, utilities and communication services made up the rest.\nSPDR S&P 600 Small Cap Value is in IBD's ETF Leaders, but SPDR S&P 600 Small Cap Growth is not.\nGameStop Stock Leads\nGameStop(GME),Macy's(M),PDC Energy(PDCE),Resideo Technologies(REZI) andBankUnited(BKU) were the top five holdings as of Wednesday.\nPacific Premier Bancorp(PPBI),Bed Bath & Beyond(BBBY),Ameris Bancorp(ABCB),First Hawaiian(FHB) andInsight Enterprises(NSIT) rounded out the top 10.\nGameStop has undergone wide swings this year. It rocketed about 2,500% early this year amid theshort-squeeze rallyfueled by the Reddit/WallStreetBets crowd.GME stockthen crashed 92% from a Jan. 28 high to its mid-February low. That was followed by an 805% surge the next three weeks, and a 66% drop over the next two weeks.\nAction had been relatively subdued since, until Thursday's 27% dive. Even after that, GameStop stock was up 1,070% year to date through Thursday's close.\nCould GME be inflating SLYV's performance? Certainly, given its quadruple-digit gain. But a look at SLYG's portfolio is interesting. GameStop stock is also the top holding in the growth stock ETF, though the rest of the top 10 differ vastly.\nSecond Meme Stock In Top 10\nPDC Energy, up 130%, saw the next biggest gain in the top 10. The Colorado-based oil and gas explorer has a 97Relative Strength Rating, which mean it's in the top 3% of all stocks. Its relative strength line is at a 52-week high, a bullish sign.\nBed Bath & Beyond, another meme stock, is up 78% this year. Shares surged more than 200% in January, amid a spate of wild double-digit swings. BBBY stock then gave back the bulk of its gains.\nBut the home goods retailer appears to be back on the radar of the WallStreetBets discussion group. On June 2, Bed Bath & Beyond soared 62% before diving 28% the next session.\nThe rest of the top 10 stocks have also outperformed the broader market. Macy's is up 68% year to date, while Resideo, Pacific Premier and Ameris have risen more than 40% each. The lowest gainer, bank holding company First Hawaiian, has advanced 20%. The S&P 500 held a 13% gain through Thursday's close.\nSLYV remains in potential buy range from an 87.29entryof acup with handle, according toMarketSmithchart analysis. SLYV and SLYG charge a 0.15% expense ratio.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"BBBY":0.9,"PDCE":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":839,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":358289619,"gmtCreate":1616697238431,"gmtModify":1704797601093,"author":{"id":"3554809676542757","authorId":"3554809676542757","name":"Twentyone","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/fa127065a0eb858d93d3bb4ee7e3ecde","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3554809676542757","idStr":"3554809676542757"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/KVSC\">$Khosla Ventures Acquisition Co. III(KVSC)$</a>An actual smart and veteran investor in vinod khosla instead of other overhyped and over marketed spacs","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/KVSC\">$Khosla Ventures Acquisition Co. III(KVSC)$</a>An actual smart and veteran investor in vinod khosla instead of other overhyped and over marketed spacs","text":"$Khosla Ventures Acquisition Co. III(KVSC)$An actual smart and veteran investor in vinod khosla instead of other overhyped and over marketed spacs","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/358289619","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1081,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0}],"hots":[{"id":121671877,"gmtCreate":1624463745999,"gmtModify":1703837631629,"author":{"id":"3554809676542757","authorId":"3554809676542757","name":"Twentyone","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/fa127065a0eb858d93d3bb4ee7e3ecde","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3554809676542757","authorIdStr":"3554809676542757"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Nice","listText":"Nice","text":"Nice","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":5,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/121671877","repostId":"1104273824","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":3209,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":141360839,"gmtCreate":1625839164521,"gmtModify":1703749603505,"author":{"id":"3554809676542757","authorId":"3554809676542757","name":"Twentyone","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/fa127065a0eb858d93d3bb4ee7e3ecde","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3554809676542757","authorIdStr":"3554809676542757"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Nice","listText":"Nice","text":"Nice","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":5,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/141360839","repostId":"1187480487","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1187480487","kind":"news","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"Providing stock market headlines, business news, financials and earnings ","home_visible":1,"media_name":"Tiger Newspress","id":"1079075236","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba"},"pubTimestamp":1625838849,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1187480487?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2021-07-09 21:54","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Disney shares rises nearly 2%,as Shanghai Disneyland raising prices up to 10%.","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1187480487","media":"Tiger Newspress","summary":"Disney shares rises nearly 2%,as Shanghai Disneyland raising prices up to 10%.\n\n\nShanghai Disneyland","content":"<p>Disney&nbsp;shares&nbsp;rises&nbsp;nearly&nbsp;2%,as&nbsp;Shanghai Disneyland raising prices up to 10%.</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c8b245ccacada732569aab91c7bad577\" tg-width=\"803\" tg-height=\"601\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<ul>\n <li>Shanghai Disneyland (DIS+0.7%) willraise its ticket prices starting in January.</li>\n <li>The resort indicated it would boost prices on Jan. 9, setting new rates for four tiers: Regular, Regular Plus, Peak (most days in summer season and other peak visitation days), and Peak Plus.</li>\n <li>The Regular price at that time will be 435 yuan (about $67.13). Regular Plus will be 545 yuan (about $84.11). Meanwhile, Peak price is set at 659 yuan ($101.70) and Peak Plus at 769 yuan ($118.67).</li>\n <li>That results in increases of 9-10% across the board.</li>\n <p><b>Disney</b>&nbsp;is gearing up for a big weekend at the box office as the long-delayed \"Black Widow\" is set for its theatrical release worldwide on July 9. Disney stock rose.</p>\n <p>Worldwide estimates for \"Black Widow\" are as high as $140 million, according to Deadline. That doesn't include China, Marvel's biggest market, as it doesn't yet have a release date there.</p>\n</ul>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Disney shares rises nearly 2%,as Shanghai Disneyland raising prices up to 10%.</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nDisney shares rises nearly 2%,as Shanghai Disneyland raising prices up to 10%.\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/1079075236\">\n\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">Tiger Newspress </p>\n<p class=\"h-time\">2021-07-09 21:54</p>\n</div>\n\n</a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>Disney&nbsp;shares&nbsp;rises&nbsp;nearly&nbsp;2%,as&nbsp;Shanghai Disneyland raising prices up to 10%.</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c8b245ccacada732569aab91c7bad577\" tg-width=\"803\" tg-height=\"601\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<ul>\n <li>Shanghai Disneyland (DIS+0.7%) willraise its ticket prices starting in January.</li>\n <li>The resort indicated it would boost prices on Jan. 9, setting new rates for four tiers: Regular, Regular Plus, Peak (most days in summer season and other peak visitation days), and Peak Plus.</li>\n <li>The Regular price at that time will be 435 yuan (about $67.13). Regular Plus will be 545 yuan (about $84.11). Meanwhile, Peak price is set at 659 yuan ($101.70) and Peak Plus at 769 yuan ($118.67).</li>\n <li>That results in increases of 9-10% across the board.</li>\n <p><b>Disney</b>&nbsp;is gearing up for a big weekend at the box office as the long-delayed \"Black Widow\" is set for its theatrical release worldwide on July 9. Disney stock rose.</p>\n <p>Worldwide estimates for \"Black Widow\" are as high as $140 million, according to Deadline. That doesn't include China, Marvel's biggest market, as it doesn't yet have a release date there.</p>\n</ul>\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"DIS":"迪士尼"},"is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1187480487","content_text":"Disney shares rises nearly 2%,as Shanghai Disneyland raising prices up to 10%.\n\n\nShanghai Disneyland (DIS+0.7%) willraise its ticket prices starting in January.\nThe resort indicated it would boost prices on Jan. 9, setting new rates for four tiers: Regular, Regular Plus, Peak (most days in summer season and other peak visitation days), and Peak Plus.\nThe Regular price at that time will be 435 yuan (about $67.13). Regular Plus will be 545 yuan (about $84.11). Meanwhile, Peak price is set at 659 yuan ($101.70) and Peak Plus at 769 yuan ($118.67).\nThat results in increases of 9-10% across the board.\nDisney is gearing up for a big weekend at the box office as the long-delayed \"Black Widow\" is set for its theatrical release worldwide on July 9. Disney stock rose.\nWorldwide estimates for \"Black Widow\" are as high as $140 million, according to Deadline. That doesn't include China, Marvel's biggest market, as it doesn't yet have a release date there.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"DIS":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2087,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":167153172,"gmtCreate":1624253911096,"gmtModify":1703831680210,"author":{"id":"3554809676542757","authorId":"3554809676542757","name":"Twentyone","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/fa127065a0eb858d93d3bb4ee7e3ecde","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3554809676542757","authorIdStr":"3554809676542757"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Nice","listText":"Nice","text":"Nice","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/167153172","repostId":"1175906479","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1175906479","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1624242000,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1175906479?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2021-06-21 10:20","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Apple: Winter Is Coming","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1175906479","media":"seekingalpha","summary":"Apple's stock has rallied 449% in the last five years, outperforming the 102% rise in the S&P 500 over the same period.I initiate Apple with a Neutral rating and a fair value of $111.42/share .In the enterprise market, customers across many industries are accelerating their adoption of iPhone 12 and 5G as a key platform for the future of their business. Delta Airlines, for example, is putting iPhone 12 and 5G connectivity into the hands of flight attendants so they can provide the best passenger","content":"<p><b>Summary</b></p>\n<ul>\n <li>Apple's stock has rallied 449% in the last five years, outperforming the 102% rise in the S&amp;P 500 over the same period.</li>\n <li>I initiate Apple with a Neutral rating and a fair value of $111.42/share (vs. the current price of $131.7/share).</li>\n <li>From the technical analysis point of view, the stock price is following its ascending triangle pattern and it is heading to the price target of $137/share.</li>\n</ul>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a4dc5052119e6bbc5b693cf7385d8738\" tg-width=\"768\" tg-height=\"512\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><span>Michael M. Santiago/Getty Images NewsCompany Overview</span></p>\n<p>Apple Inc (AAPL) stock has rallied 449% in the last five years, outperforming the 102% rise in the S&amp;P 500 over the same period. An outstanding return supported by underlying fundamentals. In particular, I would like to start the analysis with the latter.</p>\n<p>Over the last two decades, the dominant driver of Apple's success has been the iPhone. In 2016, iPhones accounted for 63% of total sales. This was a problem for Apple, and they knew it. The problem existed due to two main factors: first, the smartphone business was mature (with low growth rates); second, it was (and it is) a highly competitive business. However, Apple had something other competitors didn't have, a big iPhone owner base (which allows to sell more services for instance). Through the years Apple has been able to effectively diversify its revenue stream and it currently presents the structure represented below.</p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4602be0c6fa92191baf04a7496c4e024\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"363\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><span>Source:Author's estimates using data from the latest 10-K report</span></p>\n<p>Let's now take a look at each of these segments:</p>\n<p><b>1. iPhone</b></p>\n<p>From 2016 to 2020, the iPhone segment grew at a CAGR of 0.20% and it changed from representing 63.4% (2016) of total sales to 51% (\"TTM\"). I present below the growth rate for the iPhone segment over the last 5 years (2016-TTM).</p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/916b48499e3e3ed2c0c167af3ba62bdb\" tg-width=\"607\" tg-height=\"363\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><span>Source:Author's estimates using data from the latest10-K report</span></p>\n<p>So far this year the iPhone segment is showing a growth rate of 18.5% TTM, fueled by the new family of iPhone12 with 5G capabilities, and with interesting data coming from China. I believe that the transition to 5G will be the main driver of the growth in this segment. In this manner, I would like to report a piece of the transcript from theQ2 earnings call.</p>\n<blockquote>\n <i>In the enterprise market, customers across many industries are accelerating their adoption of iPhone 12 and 5G as a key platform for the future of their business. Delta Airlines, for example, is putting iPhone 12 and 5G connectivity into the hands of flight attendants so they can provide the best passenger service possible as air travel rebounds.Openreach in the U.K. has started equipping tens of thousands of field engineers with iPhone 12 to speed up their deployment of broadband services to homes around the country. And UCHealth, a large health care provider in Colorado, was able to reduce per patient vaccination time from 3 minutes to only 30 seconds largely by moving from PC stations to iPhones. This has allowed their staff to rapidly scan and register new patients and vastly increase their daily vaccination capacity.</i>\n</blockquote>\n<p><b>2. iPad</b></p>\n<p>As it was in the past, the iPad segment is more or less a constant number as a % of total sales, 9.6% in 2016 vs 9.1% TTM. From 2016 to 2020, the iPad segment grew at a CAGR of 3.56% (with an improving overall trend). I present below the growth rate for the iPad segment over the last 5 years (2016-TTM).</p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6faf9ddb8d29d662fcaa46bbda862f48\" tg-width=\"616\" tg-height=\"360\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><span>Source:Author's estimates using data from the latest 10-K report</span></p>\n<p>The TTM numbers show us an interesting picture with a growth rate of 24.9% TTM for the iPad segment which are driven by 3 factors: the M1 chip, the new 5G capabilities, and the fact that we were all at home. I see a lot of ways in which this new generation of iPads can be implemented. However, I also have to admit that there is a big player swimming in the same sea, the new 2-1 Laptops. The new 2-1 Laptops are a very interesting solution for those looking to have the best of the two worlds. In this last view, the iPad segment may represent a lower % of total sales, around 7.8% (vs current 9.1%).</p>\n<p><b>3. Mac</b></p>\n<p>From 2016 to 2020, the Mac segment grew at a CAGR of 5.81%, and also here, as it is for the iPad segment, the Mac segment represents a more or less constant number as % of total sales 10.6% in 2016 vs 10.4% TTM. I present below the growth rate for the Mac segment over the last 5 years (2016-TTM).</p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b2494d89c1d5cd70a4cf0c5fb31fb20a\" tg-width=\"614\" tg-height=\"363\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><span>Source:Author's estimates using data from the latest 10-K report</span></p>\n<p>The generation of new Macs powered by the M1 chip seems to be appreciated by the customers, in fact, the Mac segment presents a growth rate of 18.4% TTM so far this year. I personally tried this new generation of Macs and I have to admit, Apple knows very well how to delight its customers. Personal PCs are a highly competitive market and, even if I like and I use Apple products, I prefer to work with a Lenovo.</p>\n<p><b>4. Wearables, Home, and Accessories (WH&amp;A)</b></p>\n<p>The Wearables, Home, and Accessories segment includes sales of AirPods, Apple TV, Apple Watch, Beats products, HomePod, etc. This is where it gets interesting. From 2016 to 2020, the WH&amp;A segment grew at a CAGR of 28.78%, and it changed from representing only 5.2% of total sales in 2016 to represent 10.8% TTM. I present below the growth rate for the WH&amp;A segment over the last 5 years (2016-TTM).</p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e16432a1ae66aa9dda7a4f969a9cfcdf\" tg-width=\"607\" tg-height=\"357\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><span>Source:Author's estimates using data from the latest 10-K report</span></p>\n<p>The WH&amp;A segment is showing a growth rate of 14.7% TTM driven by a strong performance from both Apple Watch Series 6 and Apple Watch SE. Apple Watch may have a very bright future in the years ahead, driven by Apple entering into the healthcare market. In fact, it can be used to monitor the health status of the person. Imagine you being close to having a heart attack, your Apple Watch may call an ambulance and save your life, not bad no? Finally, let's don't forget also the launch of Apple TV 4K and of the newest accessory, AirTag (I don't see a market for the latter, but I may be wrong).</p>\n<p><b>5. Services</b></p>\n<p>Services include sales from the Company’s advertising, AppleCare, digital content, and other services. From 2016 to 2020, the Services segment grew at a CAGR of 21.9% and it changed from representing 11.3% of total sales in 2016 to represent 18.6% TTM. I present below the growth rate for the Services segment over the last 5 years (2016-TTM).</p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/af34eb1ba8fffd690a75318f8cf805f7\" tg-width=\"610\" tg-height=\"363\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><span>Source:Author's estimates using data from the latest 10-K report</span></p>\n<p>To date, the Services segment is showing a growth rate of 12.3% TTM. The growth is driven by App Store, Cloud Services, Music, Advertising, and Payment Services. The new services, Apple TV+, Apple Arcade, Apple News+, and Apple Card, are also starting to contribute to overall services growth, and continue to add users, content, and features. I believe that in the future, the Services segment will be the company's dominant segment. Below I present an interesting part I extrapolated from theQ4 earnings call.</p>\n<blockquote>\n <i>First, our installed base continues to grow and is at an all-time high across each major product category. Second, the number of both transacting and paid accounts on our digital content stores reached a new all-time high during the September quarter, with paid accounts increasing double digits in each of our geographic segments.Third, paid subscriptions grew more than 35 million sequentially, and we now have over 585 million paid subscriptions across the services on our platform, up 135 million from just a year ago. With this momentum, we are very confident to reach and exceed our increased target of 600 million paid subscriptions before the end of calendar 2020.</i>\n</blockquote>\n<p><b>Company Analysis</b></p>\n<p>I initiate Apple with a Neutral rating and a fair value of $111.42/share (vs. the current price of $131.7/share). The fair value is an algorithm-adjusted value that accounts for different factors, fundamental and technical (e.g. DCF fair value, Momentum, etc.), and so it takes into consideration the Mr. Market mood. At the same time, the fair value which I obtained through the DCF model is equal to $105.68/share. Now before showing the results, the numbers used as the base are the trailing twelve-month numbers. Moreover, I also restated the financials since I capitalized on R&amp;D expenses with an amortizable life of 3 years. I don't believe that in the case of Apple, R&amp;D is an operating expense and for this reason, I treat it as CapEx. By taking into account the R&amp;D, the following metrics have been restated (all numbers in $mm).</p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f7a2222a8e8b9088e619b0b971193a1f\" tg-width=\"569\" tg-height=\"262\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><span>Source:Author's estimates using data from the latest 10-K report</span></p>\n<p>It is very important to capitalize on R&amp;D expense, if we don't, we are just keeping the company's biggest asset off-balance sheet.</p>\n<p><b>Discounted Cash Flow Model</b></p>\n<p>Now, let's turn to the discounted cash flow valuation part. Below, you can see the results with the relative assumptions I have made.</p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b2da633d931f51b493d897d9c87ecee5\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"262\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><span>Source:Author's estimates using data from the latest 10-K report</span></p>\n<p>Now, this time I also present along with my estimates three possible scenarios:</p>\n<ul>\n <li><i>Base Case Scenario</i>: The above DCF model represents my base case scenario. In the base case scenario, I assume the drivers of growth to be: the iPhone segment (driven by 5G transition), the Services segment (driven by a broader customer base), and the new powered M1 Macs segment. Under this scenario, I assume a Y1 growth rate of 12%, a CAGR Y2-Y5 of 7.1%, and a target operating margin in Y10 of 27%. The DCF fair value under this scenario is $105.68/share.</li>\n <li><i>Best Case Scenario</i>: The business is booming! In the best-case scenario, I see again as the main drivers the one which I described for the base case scenario, however, in addition, I see a greater market penetration in China. Over the last 5 years, we can observe a falling pattern for sales in China, however, this year sales jumped 39.7% (with the iPhone segment rising substantially). Under this scenario, I assume a Y1 growth rate of 14%, a CAGR Y2-Y5 of 9.1%, and a target operating margin in Y10 of 30%. The DCF fair value under this scenario is $130.32/share.</li>\n <li><i>Worst Case Scenario</i>: Well, this is a scenario that I would like to call like \"mature company scenario\". Under this scenario I see Apple growing a little above the growth rate of the economy and for this reason, I assume a Y1 growth rate of 10%, a CAGR Y2-Y5 of 3.1%, and a target operating margin in Y10 of 25%. The DCF fair value under this scenario is $81.03/share.</li>\n</ul>\n<p>Finally, for each scenario, I see Apple entering into the health care market with its Apple Watch. As you can imagine, I assign a different likelihood of market penetration in each of these scenarios.</p>\n<p><b>Sensitivity Analysis</b></p>\n<p>Moreover, I also would like to provide the sensitivity analysis for the base case scenario.</p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/95f00eba768526d07d68fd846ecf998d\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"462\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><span>Source:Author's estimates using data from the latest 10-K report</span></p>\n<p><b>Technical Analysis</b></p>\n<p>From the technical analysis point of view, I don't see any problem yet. The stock price is in a bullish mode, currently within an ascending triangle pattern. As of right now, the stock price is following its pattern and it is heading to the price target of $137/share or point D, where it is likely to bounce and head back to point E. If this scenario happens, point E is usually the point where stock price bounces once again and from that point, the stock goes higher (it is just a technical analysis assumption, take it as is).</p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ecf3e5f45dcb5e30b092c02bbf94d6f9\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"317\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><span>Source:TradingView.com</span></p>\n<p><b>Final Thoughts</b></p>\n<p>Apple is a mature company that is able to see a problem and solve it years ahead. By looking at the fair value, computed under the base case scenario, we can argue that the stock is currently overvalued but not by that much. For what concern risks, the difference between the best-case and the worst-case scenario can be used as a proxy of risk. Taking this into consideration I don't see big reasoning to panic, however, it is also true that I see an upcoming correction for the market. Many indicators, technical and fundamental, are suggesting to me that the market is too heavy right now (even if the S&amp;P500 may go higher, perhaps in the 4400 area). To conclude, I don't think to close out my whole Apple position, however, I will close out 60% of it once it reaches my price target.</p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Apple: Winter Is Coming</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nApple: Winter Is Coming\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-06-21 10:20 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://seekingalpha.com/article/4435760-apple-stock-aapl-winter-is-coming><strong>seekingalpha</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>Summary\n\nApple's stock has rallied 449% in the last five years, outperforming the 102% rise in the S&P 500 over the same period.\nI initiate Apple with a Neutral rating and a fair value of $111.42/...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4435760-apple-stock-aapl-winter-is-coming\">Source Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"AAPL":"苹果"},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4435760-apple-stock-aapl-winter-is-coming","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1175906479","content_text":"Summary\n\nApple's stock has rallied 449% in the last five years, outperforming the 102% rise in the S&P 500 over the same period.\nI initiate Apple with a Neutral rating and a fair value of $111.42/share (vs. the current price of $131.7/share).\nFrom the technical analysis point of view, the stock price is following its ascending triangle pattern and it is heading to the price target of $137/share.\n\nMichael M. Santiago/Getty Images NewsCompany Overview\nApple Inc (AAPL) stock has rallied 449% in the last five years, outperforming the 102% rise in the S&P 500 over the same period. An outstanding return supported by underlying fundamentals. In particular, I would like to start the analysis with the latter.\nOver the last two decades, the dominant driver of Apple's success has been the iPhone. In 2016, iPhones accounted for 63% of total sales. This was a problem for Apple, and they knew it. The problem existed due to two main factors: first, the smartphone business was mature (with low growth rates); second, it was (and it is) a highly competitive business. However, Apple had something other competitors didn't have, a big iPhone owner base (which allows to sell more services for instance). Through the years Apple has been able to effectively diversify its revenue stream and it currently presents the structure represented below.\nSource:Author's estimates using data from the latest 10-K report\nLet's now take a look at each of these segments:\n1. iPhone\nFrom 2016 to 2020, the iPhone segment grew at a CAGR of 0.20% and it changed from representing 63.4% (2016) of total sales to 51% (\"TTM\"). I present below the growth rate for the iPhone segment over the last 5 years (2016-TTM).\nSource:Author's estimates using data from the latest10-K report\nSo far this year the iPhone segment is showing a growth rate of 18.5% TTM, fueled by the new family of iPhone12 with 5G capabilities, and with interesting data coming from China. I believe that the transition to 5G will be the main driver of the growth in this segment. In this manner, I would like to report a piece of the transcript from theQ2 earnings call.\n\nIn the enterprise market, customers across many industries are accelerating their adoption of iPhone 12 and 5G as a key platform for the future of their business. Delta Airlines, for example, is putting iPhone 12 and 5G connectivity into the hands of flight attendants so they can provide the best passenger service possible as air travel rebounds.Openreach in the U.K. has started equipping tens of thousands of field engineers with iPhone 12 to speed up their deployment of broadband services to homes around the country. And UCHealth, a large health care provider in Colorado, was able to reduce per patient vaccination time from 3 minutes to only 30 seconds largely by moving from PC stations to iPhones. This has allowed their staff to rapidly scan and register new patients and vastly increase their daily vaccination capacity.\n\n2. iPad\nAs it was in the past, the iPad segment is more or less a constant number as a % of total sales, 9.6% in 2016 vs 9.1% TTM. From 2016 to 2020, the iPad segment grew at a CAGR of 3.56% (with an improving overall trend). I present below the growth rate for the iPad segment over the last 5 years (2016-TTM).\nSource:Author's estimates using data from the latest 10-K report\nThe TTM numbers show us an interesting picture with a growth rate of 24.9% TTM for the iPad segment which are driven by 3 factors: the M1 chip, the new 5G capabilities, and the fact that we were all at home. I see a lot of ways in which this new generation of iPads can be implemented. However, I also have to admit that there is a big player swimming in the same sea, the new 2-1 Laptops. The new 2-1 Laptops are a very interesting solution for those looking to have the best of the two worlds. In this last view, the iPad segment may represent a lower % of total sales, around 7.8% (vs current 9.1%).\n3. Mac\nFrom 2016 to 2020, the Mac segment grew at a CAGR of 5.81%, and also here, as it is for the iPad segment, the Mac segment represents a more or less constant number as % of total sales 10.6% in 2016 vs 10.4% TTM. I present below the growth rate for the Mac segment over the last 5 years (2016-TTM).\nSource:Author's estimates using data from the latest 10-K report\nThe generation of new Macs powered by the M1 chip seems to be appreciated by the customers, in fact, the Mac segment presents a growth rate of 18.4% TTM so far this year. I personally tried this new generation of Macs and I have to admit, Apple knows very well how to delight its customers. Personal PCs are a highly competitive market and, even if I like and I use Apple products, I prefer to work with a Lenovo.\n4. Wearables, Home, and Accessories (WH&A)\nThe Wearables, Home, and Accessories segment includes sales of AirPods, Apple TV, Apple Watch, Beats products, HomePod, etc. This is where it gets interesting. From 2016 to 2020, the WH&A segment grew at a CAGR of 28.78%, and it changed from representing only 5.2% of total sales in 2016 to represent 10.8% TTM. I present below the growth rate for the WH&A segment over the last 5 years (2016-TTM).\nSource:Author's estimates using data from the latest 10-K report\nThe WH&A segment is showing a growth rate of 14.7% TTM driven by a strong performance from both Apple Watch Series 6 and Apple Watch SE. Apple Watch may have a very bright future in the years ahead, driven by Apple entering into the healthcare market. In fact, it can be used to monitor the health status of the person. Imagine you being close to having a heart attack, your Apple Watch may call an ambulance and save your life, not bad no? Finally, let's don't forget also the launch of Apple TV 4K and of the newest accessory, AirTag (I don't see a market for the latter, but I may be wrong).\n5. Services\nServices include sales from the Company’s advertising, AppleCare, digital content, and other services. From 2016 to 2020, the Services segment grew at a CAGR of 21.9% and it changed from representing 11.3% of total sales in 2016 to represent 18.6% TTM. I present below the growth rate for the Services segment over the last 5 years (2016-TTM).\nSource:Author's estimates using data from the latest 10-K report\nTo date, the Services segment is showing a growth rate of 12.3% TTM. The growth is driven by App Store, Cloud Services, Music, Advertising, and Payment Services. The new services, Apple TV+, Apple Arcade, Apple News+, and Apple Card, are also starting to contribute to overall services growth, and continue to add users, content, and features. I believe that in the future, the Services segment will be the company's dominant segment. Below I present an interesting part I extrapolated from theQ4 earnings call.\n\nFirst, our installed base continues to grow and is at an all-time high across each major product category. Second, the number of both transacting and paid accounts on our digital content stores reached a new all-time high during the September quarter, with paid accounts increasing double digits in each of our geographic segments.Third, paid subscriptions grew more than 35 million sequentially, and we now have over 585 million paid subscriptions across the services on our platform, up 135 million from just a year ago. With this momentum, we are very confident to reach and exceed our increased target of 600 million paid subscriptions before the end of calendar 2020.\n\nCompany Analysis\nI initiate Apple with a Neutral rating and a fair value of $111.42/share (vs. the current price of $131.7/share). The fair value is an algorithm-adjusted value that accounts for different factors, fundamental and technical (e.g. DCF fair value, Momentum, etc.), and so it takes into consideration the Mr. Market mood. At the same time, the fair value which I obtained through the DCF model is equal to $105.68/share. Now before showing the results, the numbers used as the base are the trailing twelve-month numbers. Moreover, I also restated the financials since I capitalized on R&D expenses with an amortizable life of 3 years. I don't believe that in the case of Apple, R&D is an operating expense and for this reason, I treat it as CapEx. By taking into account the R&D, the following metrics have been restated (all numbers in $mm).\nSource:Author's estimates using data from the latest 10-K report\nIt is very important to capitalize on R&D expense, if we don't, we are just keeping the company's biggest asset off-balance sheet.\nDiscounted Cash Flow Model\nNow, let's turn to the discounted cash flow valuation part. Below, you can see the results with the relative assumptions I have made.\nSource:Author's estimates using data from the latest 10-K report\nNow, this time I also present along with my estimates three possible scenarios:\n\nBase Case Scenario: The above DCF model represents my base case scenario. In the base case scenario, I assume the drivers of growth to be: the iPhone segment (driven by 5G transition), the Services segment (driven by a broader customer base), and the new powered M1 Macs segment. Under this scenario, I assume a Y1 growth rate of 12%, a CAGR Y2-Y5 of 7.1%, and a target operating margin in Y10 of 27%. The DCF fair value under this scenario is $105.68/share.\nBest Case Scenario: The business is booming! In the best-case scenario, I see again as the main drivers the one which I described for the base case scenario, however, in addition, I see a greater market penetration in China. Over the last 5 years, we can observe a falling pattern for sales in China, however, this year sales jumped 39.7% (with the iPhone segment rising substantially). Under this scenario, I assume a Y1 growth rate of 14%, a CAGR Y2-Y5 of 9.1%, and a target operating margin in Y10 of 30%. The DCF fair value under this scenario is $130.32/share.\nWorst Case Scenario: Well, this is a scenario that I would like to call like \"mature company scenario\". Under this scenario I see Apple growing a little above the growth rate of the economy and for this reason, I assume a Y1 growth rate of 10%, a CAGR Y2-Y5 of 3.1%, and a target operating margin in Y10 of 25%. The DCF fair value under this scenario is $81.03/share.\n\nFinally, for each scenario, I see Apple entering into the health care market with its Apple Watch. As you can imagine, I assign a different likelihood of market penetration in each of these scenarios.\nSensitivity Analysis\nMoreover, I also would like to provide the sensitivity analysis for the base case scenario.\nSource:Author's estimates using data from the latest 10-K report\nTechnical Analysis\nFrom the technical analysis point of view, I don't see any problem yet. The stock price is in a bullish mode, currently within an ascending triangle pattern. As of right now, the stock price is following its pattern and it is heading to the price target of $137/share or point D, where it is likely to bounce and head back to point E. If this scenario happens, point E is usually the point where stock price bounces once again and from that point, the stock goes higher (it is just a technical analysis assumption, take it as is).\nSource:TradingView.com\nFinal Thoughts\nApple is a mature company that is able to see a problem and solve it years ahead. By looking at the fair value, computed under the base case scenario, we can argue that the stock is currently overvalued but not by that much. For what concern risks, the difference between the best-case and the worst-case scenario can be used as a proxy of risk. Taking this into consideration I don't see big reasoning to panic, however, it is also true that I see an upcoming correction for the market. Many indicators, technical and fundamental, are suggesting to me that the market is too heavy right now (even if the S&P500 may go higher, perhaps in the 4400 area). To conclude, I don't think to close out my whole Apple position, however, I will close out 60% of it once it reaches my price target.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"AAPL":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1522,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":129866330,"gmtCreate":1624369143120,"gmtModify":1703834605653,"author":{"id":"3554809676542757","authorId":"3554809676542757","name":"Twentyone","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/fa127065a0eb858d93d3bb4ee7e3ecde","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3554809676542757","authorIdStr":"3554809676542757"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Nice","listText":"Nice","text":"Nice","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/129866330","repostId":"1177499959","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1177499959","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1624344919,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1177499959?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2021-06-22 14:55","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Forget Everything You Know: Morgan Stanley Reveals The Only Metric That Determines What The Market Will Do Next","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1177499959","media":"zerohedge","summary":"Traders of a certain age may recall that back in 2013, around the time the Fed's \"Taper Tantrum\" spa","content":"<p>Traders of a certain age may recall that back in 2013, around the time the Fed's \"Taper Tantrum\" sparked a surge in yields and led to a risk asset selloff, a big (if entirely artificial) debate emerged within financial media, where the Fed muppets and their media puppets would argue that \"tapering is not tightening\" while anyone with half a brain realized knew that this was total BS.</p>\n<p>Fast forward to today when Morgan Stanley's Michael Wilson opens up an old wound for clueless Fed apologists, saying in his latest Weekly Warm Up note that \"Tapering<i><b>is</b></i>Tightening\"... but then adds that contrary to the market's shocked reaction to last week's Fed meeting, tightening actually began months ago.</p>\n<p>Elaborating on this point, Wilson - who several months ago turned into Wall Street's most bearish strategist (again)-&nbsp; writes this morning that while the Fed's pivot to \"begin\" the tightening discussion caught most by surprise, in reality markets began discounting this inevitable process months ago as price action had indicated. It's exactly this discounting of the coming tightening, that is what Michael Wilson's mid-cycle transition is all about, and as the strategist adds, \"<b>fits nicely with our narrative for choppier equity markets and a 10-20% correction for the broader indices this year.\"</b></p>\n<p>Or to paraphrase Lester Burnham,<b>\"it's all downhill from here\"...</b>and as Wilson predicts, that won't change until M2 growth is done decelerating; or in other words, until the Fed unleashes another liquidity burst into the system \"<b><i>the transition is incomplete.\"</i></b></p>\n<p>Highlights aside, Wilson then elaborates on each point, noting that while last week's Fed meeting brought more uncertainty to markets one thing is becoming more obvious:<b>\"we are on the other side of the mountain with respect to monetary accommodation for this cycle.</b>\"</p>\n<p>Furthermore, having repeatedlywarned that the US is now mid-cycle...</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d95f296e4d1300cd3c95485a2333d270\" tg-width=\"906\" tg-height=\"571\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">... Wilson then takes a victory lap writing that what the Fed is doing is \"classic mid cycle transition behavior so investors really shouldn't be too surprised that the Fed would try to begin the long process of tightening.\"</p>\n<blockquote>\n After all, the US economy is booming and expected to grow close to 10 percent this year in nominal terms, a feat last witnessed in 1984. Meanwhile, no matter what one's view is on inflation being transient or not, prices are up significantly and likely higher than what the Fed, or most others were expecting 6 months ago. In other words, the facts and data have changed; therefore, so should Fed policy.\n</blockquote>\n<p>Nevertheless, as discussed here extensively, markets reacted as if this was a complete shock with both bonds and stocks trading as if the Fed had hiked rates already (instead of leaving over $2TN in QE still on deck) after the Fed meeting. Starting with bonds, both nominal 10 year yields and breakevens fell significantly. However, breakevens fell more leaving 10 year real rates higher by almost 20 bps Wednesday afternoon.</p>\n<p>While real rates did settle back a bit on Thursday and Friday, they have formed what appears to be a very solid base from which they are likely to rise as the economy continues to recover and the Fed appropriately pivots. In Wilson's view, \"<b>this looks very similar to 2013, the year after Peak Fed. Back then, Peak Fed was QE3 which was announced on September 12, 2012. This time Peak Fed was the announcement of Average Inflation Targeting last summer.\"</b></p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/670f9e23e34953726583276c32a7b3f9\" tg-width=\"843\" tg-height=\"445\"></p>\n<p>That said, there is one notable difference between the taper tantrum and today: in 2013 \"tapering\" QE was a novel concept to markets and it came more abruptly with Bernanke's surprise mention during his congressional testimony on May 22, 2013.<b>This time, the markets understand what tapering is and see its arrival as inevitable as the economy recovers.</b>Therefore, while the path higher for real rates is unlikely to be as dramatic as witnessed in 2013, it is still likely to be higher from here and that is a change that will affect all risk markets, including equities, in Morgan Stanley's view.</p>\n<p>Wilson makes one final observation from the chart above, which is how real rates moved substantially<b>before</b>Bernanke's testimony in May 2013, prompting Wilson to notes that \"<i>perhaps it wasn't as much of a surprise as believed, at least to markets. We think it's the same situation today.\"</i></p>\n<blockquote>\n In our view, the data has been so strong, it would be naive not to think the Fed wasn't moving closer to tapering over the past several months. In fact, the idea that the Fed hasn't been thinking and/or talking about it seems absurd. Surely the market understands this, making the events of the past week not so much of a surprise. It's all part of the mid cycle transition that has been ongoing for months and fits with the choppier price action and unstable market leadership we have been witnessing.\n</blockquote>\n<p>The underperformance of early cycle stocks is another classic signal the market \"gets it.\" Nevertheless, in talking with clients the past few days, this view is still out of consensus. Most haven't been ready for tighter monetary policy, nor did they think it's something they needed to worry about, until now.</p>\n<p>Wrapping up the Fed \"surprise\" part of his note, Wilson writes that contrary to the FOMC shock,<b>monetary tightening actually began months ago if one is looking at the right metric, which to the top Morgan Stanley equity strategist - who emerges as yet another closet Austrian - is</b><b><u>money supply growth</u></b><b>:</b></p>\n<blockquote>\n <i>In a world where all of the major developed market central banks are stuck at the zero bound, or lower,</i>\n <i><b>the primary metric that determines if monetary policy is getting more or less accommodative is Money Supply Growth.</b></i>\n</blockquote>\n<p>Realizing that to most Keynesian this will be a controversial statement to say the least, Wilson digs in and says that \"it's absolutely the case and financial markets seem to agree.\"&nbsp; He explains:</p>\n<blockquote>\n <i>When money supply is accelerating, the more speculative / riskier assets tend to outperform and when it's decelerating these assets have more trouble. As noted here several times over the past few months, the Fed's balance sheet (M1) growth peaked in mid February and that coincided with a top in many of the most expensive/speculative stocks in the equity market just like the acceleration in the Fed's balance sheet in the prior 12 months contributed to their spectacular performance. Interestingly, the recently flattening out of the growth in M1 has coincided with more stability in these stocks, although they remain well below prior highs (Exhibit 2).</i>\n</blockquote>\n<p>And visually:</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/392b34be32740b00458d59adb2bb80a6\" tg-width=\"852\" tg-height=\"486\"></p>\n<p>But wait there's more, and also an explanation why the Fed has made it virtually impossible to track the weekly change in M2 (the aggregate is now updated only monthly).</p>\n<p>Taking Wilson's argument a step further,<b>M2 growth might be even more important to monitor than M1 because that's the net liquidity available to the economy</b><b><i>and</i></b><b>markets.</b>On that front, the deceleration also began at the end of February<b>but has not yet flattened out and appears to have much further to fall to a&nbsp; more \"normal\" level of annual growth</b>— i.e., 7-8%</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/dd5f46571e7e27f9c00fed0a2d310a3c\" tg-width=\"610\" tg-height=\"376\"></p>\n<p>More ominously, this also suggests<b>liquidity is likely to tighten further from here whether the Fed's begins tapering later this year or next.</b></p>\n<p>Finally, when we look at M2 data on a global basis, we get the same picture.</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c77fa806a6775bc562b18346590d26c9\" tg-width=\"613\" tg-height=\"376\"></p>\n<p>Wilson concludes that even ahead of last week's \"shock\" FOMC, the market had already started to de-rate lower into a mid-cycle transition as Fed balance sheet growth has materially slowed. Meanwhile, M2 is slowing just as rapidly and has further to fall, especially when the Fed begins to taper later this year or early next. Finally, global money supply growth is also slowing from elevated levels and every major region is contributing.</p>\n<p>This to Wilson<b>\"looks reminiscent of 2014 and 2018 when markets went through a rolling correction of risky assets\"</b>and he thinks 2021 will prove to be similar in that regard with the highest beta regions falling first (Kospi, China, Japan) and ending with the most defensive (US).</p>\n<p>Putting it all together, the MS strategist writes that \"tapering is tightening but the tightening process began with the rate of change in money supply growth. The good news is that<b>the market already knows it.</b>The bad news is that<b>a majority of investors seem to be just catching on with the Fed's \"surprise\" announcement this past week.</b>This means asset prices are far from done correcting as witnessed with the more cyclical, reflationary assets taking their turn the past few weeks.\"</p>\n<p>And while we completely agree with Wilson's newly discovered Austrian view of markets - funny how on a long enough timeline everyone turns Austrian - the real question is what will catalyze the next M2 boosting cycle, how high will it push stocks, and will the Fed be forced to come out and start buying equities this time after having nationalized the bond market back in 2020.</p>\n<p>We expect that the answer will be revealed after the next 20% drop at which point all of the Fed's hawkishness will evaporate, and Powell (or his replacement Kashkari) will shift to an uber dovish mode as they prepare to unleash the final and biggest asset bubble of all...</p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; 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color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nForget Everything You Know: Morgan Stanley Reveals The Only Metric That Determines What The Market Will Do Next\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-06-22 14:55 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/forget-everything-you-know-morgan-stanley-reveals-only-metric-determines-what-market-will><strong>zerohedge</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>Traders of a certain age may recall that back in 2013, around the time the Fed's \"Taper Tantrum\" sparked a surge in yields and led to a risk asset selloff, a big (if entirely artificial) debate ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/forget-everything-you-know-morgan-stanley-reveals-only-metric-determines-what-market-will\">Source Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{".SPX":"S&P 500 Index",".DJI":"道琼斯","SPY":"标普500ETF",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite"},"source_url":"https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/forget-everything-you-know-morgan-stanley-reveals-only-metric-determines-what-market-will","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1177499959","content_text":"Traders of a certain age may recall that back in 2013, around the time the Fed's \"Taper Tantrum\" sparked a surge in yields and led to a risk asset selloff, a big (if entirely artificial) debate emerged within financial media, where the Fed muppets and their media puppets would argue that \"tapering is not tightening\" while anyone with half a brain realized knew that this was total BS.\nFast forward to today when Morgan Stanley's Michael Wilson opens up an old wound for clueless Fed apologists, saying in his latest Weekly Warm Up note that \"TaperingisTightening\"... but then adds that contrary to the market's shocked reaction to last week's Fed meeting, tightening actually began months ago.\nElaborating on this point, Wilson - who several months ago turned into Wall Street's most bearish strategist (again)-  writes this morning that while the Fed's pivot to \"begin\" the tightening discussion caught most by surprise, in reality markets began discounting this inevitable process months ago as price action had indicated. It's exactly this discounting of the coming tightening, that is what Michael Wilson's mid-cycle transition is all about, and as the strategist adds, \"fits nicely with our narrative for choppier equity markets and a 10-20% correction for the broader indices this year.\"\nOr to paraphrase Lester Burnham,\"it's all downhill from here\"...and as Wilson predicts, that won't change until M2 growth is done decelerating; or in other words, until the Fed unleashes another liquidity burst into the system \"the transition is incomplete.\"\nHighlights aside, Wilson then elaborates on each point, noting that while last week's Fed meeting brought more uncertainty to markets one thing is becoming more obvious:\"we are on the other side of the mountain with respect to monetary accommodation for this cycle.\"\nFurthermore, having repeatedlywarned that the US is now mid-cycle...\n... Wilson then takes a victory lap writing that what the Fed is doing is \"classic mid cycle transition behavior so investors really shouldn't be too surprised that the Fed would try to begin the long process of tightening.\"\n\n After all, the US economy is booming and expected to grow close to 10 percent this year in nominal terms, a feat last witnessed in 1984. Meanwhile, no matter what one's view is on inflation being transient or not, prices are up significantly and likely higher than what the Fed, or most others were expecting 6 months ago. In other words, the facts and data have changed; therefore, so should Fed policy.\n\nNevertheless, as discussed here extensively, markets reacted as if this was a complete shock with both bonds and stocks trading as if the Fed had hiked rates already (instead of leaving over $2TN in QE still on deck) after the Fed meeting. Starting with bonds, both nominal 10 year yields and breakevens fell significantly. However, breakevens fell more leaving 10 year real rates higher by almost 20 bps Wednesday afternoon.\nWhile real rates did settle back a bit on Thursday and Friday, they have formed what appears to be a very solid base from which they are likely to rise as the economy continues to recover and the Fed appropriately pivots. In Wilson's view, \"this looks very similar to 2013, the year after Peak Fed. Back then, Peak Fed was QE3 which was announced on September 12, 2012. This time Peak Fed was the announcement of Average Inflation Targeting last summer.\"\n\nThat said, there is one notable difference between the taper tantrum and today: in 2013 \"tapering\" QE was a novel concept to markets and it came more abruptly with Bernanke's surprise mention during his congressional testimony on May 22, 2013.This time, the markets understand what tapering is and see its arrival as inevitable as the economy recovers.Therefore, while the path higher for real rates is unlikely to be as dramatic as witnessed in 2013, it is still likely to be higher from here and that is a change that will affect all risk markets, including equities, in Morgan Stanley's view.\nWilson makes one final observation from the chart above, which is how real rates moved substantiallybeforeBernanke's testimony in May 2013, prompting Wilson to notes that \"perhaps it wasn't as much of a surprise as believed, at least to markets. We think it's the same situation today.\"\n\n In our view, the data has been so strong, it would be naive not to think the Fed wasn't moving closer to tapering over the past several months. In fact, the idea that the Fed hasn't been thinking and/or talking about it seems absurd. Surely the market understands this, making the events of the past week not so much of a surprise. It's all part of the mid cycle transition that has been ongoing for months and fits with the choppier price action and unstable market leadership we have been witnessing.\n\nThe underperformance of early cycle stocks is another classic signal the market \"gets it.\" Nevertheless, in talking with clients the past few days, this view is still out of consensus. Most haven't been ready for tighter monetary policy, nor did they think it's something they needed to worry about, until now.\nWrapping up the Fed \"surprise\" part of his note, Wilson writes that contrary to the FOMC shock,monetary tightening actually began months ago if one is looking at the right metric, which to the top Morgan Stanley equity strategist - who emerges as yet another closet Austrian - ismoney supply growth:\n\nIn a world where all of the major developed market central banks are stuck at the zero bound, or lower,\nthe primary metric that determines if monetary policy is getting more or less accommodative is Money Supply Growth.\n\nRealizing that to most Keynesian this will be a controversial statement to say the least, Wilson digs in and says that \"it's absolutely the case and financial markets seem to agree.\"  He explains:\n\nWhen money supply is accelerating, the more speculative / riskier assets tend to outperform and when it's decelerating these assets have more trouble. As noted here several times over the past few months, the Fed's balance sheet (M1) growth peaked in mid February and that coincided with a top in many of the most expensive/speculative stocks in the equity market just like the acceleration in the Fed's balance sheet in the prior 12 months contributed to their spectacular performance. Interestingly, the recently flattening out of the growth in M1 has coincided with more stability in these stocks, although they remain well below prior highs (Exhibit 2).\n\nAnd visually:\n\nBut wait there's more, and also an explanation why the Fed has made it virtually impossible to track the weekly change in M2 (the aggregate is now updated only monthly).\nTaking Wilson's argument a step further,M2 growth might be even more important to monitor than M1 because that's the net liquidity available to the economyandmarkets.On that front, the deceleration also began at the end of Februarybut has not yet flattened out and appears to have much further to fall to a  more \"normal\" level of annual growth— i.e., 7-8%\n\nMore ominously, this also suggestsliquidity is likely to tighten further from here whether the Fed's begins tapering later this year or next.\nFinally, when we look at M2 data on a global basis, we get the same picture.\n\nWilson concludes that even ahead of last week's \"shock\" FOMC, the market had already started to de-rate lower into a mid-cycle transition as Fed balance sheet growth has materially slowed. Meanwhile, M2 is slowing just as rapidly and has further to fall, especially when the Fed begins to taper later this year or early next. Finally, global money supply growth is also slowing from elevated levels and every major region is contributing.\nThis to Wilson\"looks reminiscent of 2014 and 2018 when markets went through a rolling correction of risky assets\"and he thinks 2021 will prove to be similar in that regard with the highest beta regions falling first (Kospi, China, Japan) and ending with the most defensive (US).\nPutting it all together, the MS strategist writes that \"tapering is tightening but the tightening process began with the rate of change in money supply growth. The good news is thatthe market already knows it.The bad news is thata majority of investors seem to be just catching on with the Fed's \"surprise\" announcement this past week.This means asset prices are far from done correcting as witnessed with the more cyclical, reflationary assets taking their turn the past few weeks.\"\nAnd while we completely agree with Wilson's newly discovered Austrian view of markets - funny how on a long enough timeline everyone turns Austrian - the real question is what will catalyze the next M2 boosting cycle, how high will it push stocks, and will the Fed be forced to come out and start buying equities this time after having nationalized the bond market back in 2020.\nWe expect that the answer will be revealed after the next 20% drop at which point all of the Fed's hawkishness will evaporate, and Powell (or his replacement Kashkari) will shift to an uber dovish mode as they prepare to unleash the final and biggest asset bubble of all...","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"SPY":0.9,".SPX":0.9,".IXIC":0.9,".DJI":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2838,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":128754324,"gmtCreate":1624533716868,"gmtModify":1703839592277,"author":{"id":"3554809676542757","authorId":"3554809676542757","name":"Twentyone","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/fa127065a0eb858d93d3bb4ee7e3ecde","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3554809676542757","authorIdStr":"3554809676542757"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BABA\">$Alibaba(BABA)$</a>long","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BABA\">$Alibaba(BABA)$</a>long","text":"$Alibaba(BABA)$long","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/128754324","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2595,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":121678436,"gmtCreate":1624463789625,"gmtModify":1703837633580,"author":{"id":"3554809676542757","authorId":"3554809676542757","name":"Twentyone","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/fa127065a0eb858d93d3bb4ee7e3ecde","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3554809676542757","authorIdStr":"3554809676542757"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Gr8","listText":"Gr8","text":"Gr8","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/121678436","repostId":"1155993250","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2746,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":167158268,"gmtCreate":1624254098354,"gmtModify":1703831683184,"author":{"id":"3554809676542757","authorId":"3554809676542757","name":"Twentyone","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/fa127065a0eb858d93d3bb4ee7e3ecde","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3554809676542757","authorIdStr":"3554809676542757"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Sad","listText":"Sad","text":"Sad","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/167158268","repostId":"2145835050","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"2145835050","kind":"highlight","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"Reuters.com brings you the latest news from around the world, covering breaking news in markets, business, politics, entertainment and technology","home_visible":1,"media_name":"Reuters","id":"1036604489","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/443ce19704621c837795676028cec868"},"pubTimestamp":1624252213,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/2145835050?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2021-06-21 13:10","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Thousands of Commonwealth Edison customers without power as severe storms hit Chicago","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2145835050","media":"Reuters","summary":"June 21 (Reuters) - Chicago-area utility Commonwealth Edison's (ComEd) website showed that over 34,0","content":"<p>June 21 (Reuters) - Chicago-area utility Commonwealth Edison's (ComEd) website showed that over 34,000 customers were without power as severe thunderstorms tore through the area on Sunday night.</p>\n<p>The website of ComEd, a unit of Exelon Corp , showed more than 14,000 customers were without power in the DuPage County alone in Illinois while over 13,000 customers were in the dark in the Cook County.</p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; 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overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nThousands of Commonwealth Edison customers without power as severe storms hit Chicago\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/1036604489\">\n\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/443ce19704621c837795676028cec868);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">Reuters </p>\n<p class=\"h-time\">2021-06-21 13:10</p>\n</div>\n\n</a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>June 21 (Reuters) - Chicago-area utility Commonwealth Edison's (ComEd) website showed that over 34,000 customers were without power as severe thunderstorms tore through the area on Sunday night.</p>\n<p>The website of ComEd, a unit of Exelon Corp , showed more than 14,000 customers were without power in the DuPage County alone in Illinois while over 13,000 customers were in the dark in the Cook County.</p>\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"CQXL":"Commonwealth Edison Co."},"is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2145835050","content_text":"June 21 (Reuters) - Chicago-area utility Commonwealth Edison's (ComEd) website showed that over 34,000 customers were without power as severe thunderstorms tore through the area on Sunday night.\nThe website of ComEd, a unit of Exelon Corp , showed more than 14,000 customers were without power in the DuPage County alone in Illinois while over 13,000 customers were in the dark in the Cook County.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"CQXL":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1114,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":128752837,"gmtCreate":1624533599429,"gmtModify":1703839589498,"author":{"id":"3554809676542757","authorId":"3554809676542757","name":"Twentyone","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/fa127065a0eb858d93d3bb4ee7e3ecde","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3554809676542757","authorIdStr":"3554809676542757"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Lol","listText":"Lol","text":"Lol","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/128752837","repostId":"1114249548","repostType":2,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2340,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":121208142,"gmtCreate":1624464152886,"gmtModify":1703837646383,"author":{"id":"3554809676542757","authorId":"3554809676542757","name":"Twentyone","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/fa127065a0eb858d93d3bb4ee7e3ecde","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3554809676542757","authorIdStr":"3554809676542757"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BABA\">$Alibaba(BABA)$</a>lol","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BABA\">$Alibaba(BABA)$</a>lol","text":"$Alibaba(BABA)$lol","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/29a56416e4d7b6187d7545e29186d7c6","width":"1080","height":"1920"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/121208142","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2503,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":120927661,"gmtCreate":1624292904053,"gmtModify":1703832801546,"author":{"id":"3554809676542757","authorId":"3554809676542757","name":"Twentyone","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/fa127065a0eb858d93d3bb4ee7e3ecde","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3554809676542757","authorIdStr":"3554809676542757"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Nice","listText":"Nice","text":"Nice","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/120927661","repostId":"2145084835","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2151,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0}],"lives":[]}