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2021-03-23
Mark
The two logics of A-share core assets: removing the false and preserving the true, and selecting the best among the best
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11:32","market":"sh","language":"zh","title":"The two logics of A-share core assets: removing the false and preserving the true, and selecting the best among the best","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1107778493","media":"分析师徐彪","summary":"摘要：关注具备制造业的全球化能力的企业，以及长期涨价能力最强的消费品。核心结论：春节过后，A股市场变化较大，近期路演过程中，针对不同问题，投资者也存在很多分歧，本篇报告，我们展示10组路演中关注度较高","content":"<p>Abstract: Pay attention to enterprises with the globalization ability of manufacturing industry and consumer goods with the strongest long-term price increase ability.<b>Core conclusions:</b></p><p>After the Spring Festival, the A-share market has changed greatly. During the recent roadshow, investors also have many differences on different issues. In this report, we show 10 groups of charts with high attention in roadshows and update our latest strategic views.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/72451927496531ba1262d90459a315fd\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"735\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>① First of all, regarding the performance disclosure rules, there is one point that needs to be added. In order to implement the relevant information disclosure requirements of the new Securities Law, on the evening of March 19, the China Securities Regulatory Commission issued the revised Measures for the Administration of Information Disclosure of Listed Companies (hereinafter referred to as the \"Letter Disclosure Measures\"), which will come into effect on May 1, 2021.<b>One of the biggest changes is that the periodic reports that listed companies should disclose include annual reports and interim reports. Compared with the previous version, the quarterly report is removed.</b></p><p>That is to say, the first quarterly report of 2021 will continue to be disclosed in accordance with the previous requirements, but the disclosure rules for future quarterly reports must be subject to the follow-up arrangements of the Shanghai and Shenzhen Stock Exchanges.</p><p>② Secondly, this year's performance disclosure period may be crucial to the A-share market. As the country enters a credit contraction cycle in 2021 (the growth rate of total debt falls), and global interest rates and inflation expectations are easy to rise but difficult to fall, it is difficult for the A-share market to raise valuations significantly as in 2019 and 2020, so performance has become the driving force for stock prices. core factor.</p><p><b>That is, the A-share market may usher in the catalysis of the numerator side during the performance disclosure period, but it will face the uncertainty of the denominator side during the performance window period. Therefore, in early April, the intensive disclosure period of the first quarterly report forecast is approaching, providing a window period for A-shares to rebound.</b></p><p>③ Finally, regarding the structure of the first quarterly report, two types of companies are most likely to exceed expectations: first, the sector with pro-cyclical price increases; The second is the sector whose own industrial cycle is rising (upstream military industry, production line equipment, new energy vehicles, etc.).</p><p>In addition, for opening up a new battlefield of excess returns, the first quarterly report is also crucial. Many mid-cap growth stocks need continuous verification of performance in order to form cohesion.<b>In this respect, our stock selection strategy model can just come in handy, especially the [prosperity growth] model. We have set 20 fundamental factors including profitability, profit trend, asset quality, and financial health. After each financial reporting period, all A shares are fundamentally screened, and the effectiveness of the screening logic is backtested.</b></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b4aad5a990c61c7c8e9138c260d16692\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"567\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>In the figure above, we use the 10Y Treasury Bond yield minus the CSI 300 Dividend ratio to measure the cost performance of the CSI 300. This indicator is in the extreme position and has a relatively strong guiding significance for the market.</p><p><b>Once the yield difference between stocks and bonds is close to negative two standard deviations, the market will subsequently rebound, such as typical late March 2020. For details, please refer to our report at that time, \"The yield difference between stocks and bonds is the lowest in ten years, and the peripheral earthquake is huge, but the risk of A shares is controllable\".</b></p><p><b>On the contrary, when the yield difference between stocks and bonds is close to positive twice the standard deviation, the market will subsequently incur certain risks, such as typical times before the Spring Festival in 2021, early 2018, and mid-2015.</b></p><p>At present, after market adjustment, the yield difference between Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 stocks and bonds has dropped back to around positive standard deviation.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1f5bb20f7f0706bf18d1bc22f79a62a7\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"564\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>With the same logic, in the figure above, we use the 10Y Treasury Bond yield minus the CSI 500 Dividend ratio to measure the cost performance of the CSI 500.</p><p>In the past six months, the yield difference between stocks and bonds of CSI 500 has fluctuated around the average. Compared with CSI 300, the risk-return ratio is relatively higher. This is also our proposal to open up a new battlefield for excess returns, appropriately sink to some mid-cap growth stocks, and find a data support for potential core assets in the future.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2b0dcc0d356ca840dfb781e853701d28\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"672\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>In terms of stages, domestic credit will shrink in 2021, and global interest rates will be easy to rise but difficult to fall, which is relatively unfavorable to companies with excessively high long-term premiums. The molecular end (performance) is more important at present. Equity incentives can effectively lock in the molecular end, that is, lock in the high growth rate in the next 1-3 years, which can become the key to opening up a new battlefield of excess returns.</p><p><b>So, what kind of equity incentives can bring excess returns?</b></p><p>(1) Buying time: the earlier you buy, the better: plan announcement date > shareholders' meeting announcement date > first implementation announcement date;</p><p>(2) Holding time: The long holding period still has good excess returns, which is operable.</p><p>(3) Termination of equity incentive plan: valuation killing will occur in the short term, and investors should avoid risks</p><p>(4) Industry: Growth industries prefer equity incentives, and the rate of return within the industry is obviously differentiated.</p><p>(5) Market value: Equity incentives are mainly based on small market capitalization below 20 billion yuan, but companies with more than 20 billion yuan are the key to obtaining excess returns in equity incentives, which can be used as reserves for excess returns.</p><p>(6) Incentive intensity (\"quantity\"): If the total number of incentives accounts for more than 3% of the total equity at that time, a higher excess rate of return can be obtained, but excessively high incentive ratio will actually lower the rate of return, and 3%-5% is a better range.</p><p>(7) Incentive intensity (\"price\"): different grant discount rates of equity incentive have no obvious impact on excess return;</p><p>(8) Exercise conditions: it is required that the growth rate of net profit changes from negative to positive to obtain higher excess returns; In addition, the stricter the requirements for net profit growth, the greater the excess rate of return; However, the required growth rate is too high, and the excess returns will fall instead.</p><p>(9) Incentive method: options (exercisable stocks come from fixed increase) > fixed increase of stocks > buying circulating A shares > 5%.</p><p>(10) Among the nature of enterprises, private and foreign capital are higher.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d976f8634c2bc265bec3704386dbc361\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"797\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><b>① In 1973-1979, in the valuation stage of Nifty 50, the companies with positive profit catalysis were resistant to the decline, or companies with smaller bubbles in the valuation stage; For companies with serious valuation overdraft after continuous rises, the risk of killing valuation is greater.</b></p><p>During the valuation killing stage from 1973 to 1979, among the 30 companies with relatively complete data in the table below, the average valuation decline was 72.4%, the average profit growth rate was 16.3%, the average stock price increase was-15.9%, and the average excess return was-7.3%.</p><p><b>During this period, there are two main types of companies whose valuations have declined less:</b></p><p>First, resource or oil service companies that benefit from rising oil prices, such as Halliburton and Lubrizol;</p><p>Second, in the early 1970s, companies with relatively small valuations, such as Bristol-Myers, Pfizer, General Electric, etc., had peak valuations of only about 30 times.</p><p><b>On the contrary, there are two main types of companies with large declines:</b></p><p>First, companies with low profit growth rates, such as the three companies with the largest declines (Avon, Sears, and Kodak), all have significantly lower profit growth rates than the average level;</p><p>Second, companies that greatly raised their valuations in the early 1970s, such as Disney, McDonald's, and Coca-Cola, had valuations of 84 times, 85 times, and 48 times respectively at the end of 1972, and then ranked first in the valuation range in 1973-79., although profits at this time continue to grow at a high rate.</p><p><b>② For the core assets of A-shares, there is a high probability that the magnitude and time of killing the valuation will not replicate the situation of the US stock market at that time.</b>One of the most critical factors is that the current world does not have the 10-year stagflation environment triggered by the oil crisis in the 1970s and the Middle East war (US Treasury yields rose from 5% to 14% at that time).</p><p><b>③ It is worth learning that after the valuation of A-share core assets is significantly adjusted, there may be a high probability of differentiation. According to the differentiation of Beautiful 50, it is expected that among the A-share core assets, two types of companies may perform relatively better in the future. First, some high-end manufacturing leaders, such as new energy, new materials, machinery, etc., whose molecular performance can rise substantially. Second, the leader whose valuation has been relatively small in the past two years.</b></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/52e9beb18b1352b8eeb1a3c33e82d48f\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"417\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>As shown in the figure above, we sort and grade all companies in the U.S. stock market according to their market value at the beginning of each year, and calculate the median increase of this group of companies in that year.</p><p>It can be found that in the 75-79 years when the U.S. stock market Nifty 50 digested the valuation, the mid-cap stocks (groups 4-8) in the U.S. stock market outperformed for about 5 consecutive years. It is also the longest time that U.S. mid-cap stocks have continued to outperform in the past 50 years.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/cf85edeaa49138a6eab9620e0a8bf2b9\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"535\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><b>Starting in the late 1970s, the Nifty 50 really entered an ultra-long bull market driven by continued earnings.</b>From January 1970 to June 2020, the Nifty 50 rose 207 times, and the S&P 500 rose 33 times.</p><p><b>The high-yield stage mainly came from 1980 to 2010. During these 30 years, the Nifty 50 only underperformed the S&P 500 in 4 years (83, 88, 98, 99).</b>Wherein:</p><p>In the 1980s, the Nifty 50 rose 457%, the S&P 500 rose 226%, and the excess return was 231%;</p><p>In the 1990s, the Nifty 50 rose 484%, the S&P 500 rose 316%, and the excess return was 168%;</p><p>In the 2000s, the Nifty 50 rose 75%, the S&P 500 rose-24%, and the excess return was 99%.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1e95904166e8318bfbd7673350395e64\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"569\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><b>Profitability (high ROE) is the key to the long-term victory of the Nifty 50.</b>The ROE of the Nifty 50 has been higher than the S&P 500 index for a long time. This state lasted until around 2010, and the excess ROE performance after that weakened. The reason is that the Nifty 50 after 2010 is no longer the Nifty 50 in the 1970s. The excess returns of the Nifty 50 relative to the S&P 500 also began to weaken after this point in time.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b785d55bc1ff6f847fc3e15f84369869\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"394\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/351384a507cc74721f7ea457cf708888\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"396\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0131d925243edaa1de75cba97a4ba4a6\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"705\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/06b9dd807a2d8bc206747fb85165cf87\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"704\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><b>Since the 1980s and 1990s, the pace of global expansion of U.S. stock companies has been the key to supporting the profits and stock prices of leading industries in various U.S. stocks to a higher level.</b>Global expansion not only brings new growth space for leading companies in these industries, but also drives the cyclical weakening of the industry, and even increases the profitability center.</p><p>For A-share companies, the globalization of mid-to-high-end manufacturing industry is more likely, especially the suspension of production caused by the continuous overseas epidemic in 2020, which is the beginning of a round of globalization of China's manufacturing industry.</p><p>The increase in overseas penetration rate can partially offset the volatility of domestic demand, making the company's ROE more stable and ultimately corresponding to a higher valuation level.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/55165042d7231e56c1a7a214792b5441\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"500\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f6297d9a42e89f28b2fded875cc8913a\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"297\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>As shown in the above model, the three-stage sustainable growth rate has a great impact on valuation.</p><p>In other words, among the core assets, we should select companies with relatively higher sustainable growth rates as the long-term layout track.</p><p>For most consumer goods companies, after entering a steady state, the \"volume\" has basically remained stable, and the growth mainly comes from the increase in \"price\".</p><p>Therefore, the strength of the price increase ability corresponds to the level of sustainable growth rate.</p><p>Regarding the price increase ability of different consumer goods, we can first look at a set of data:</p><p>From the long-term growth rate of CPI and CPI segments in various countries, not all consumer industry CPI can outperform the overall CPI. Generally speaking, the long-term growth rate of consumer staples is higher than the overall CPI, while the long-term growth rate of optional consumer goods is lower than the overall CPI. overall CPI. This is consistent with the logic that consumer staples outperform optional consumer goods in the U.S. stock market for a long time. Consumer staples are prone to brand and customer loyalty accumulation, and if there is an industry with a trend of industry concentration, the growth rate can be added.</p><p>In fact, the service industry has the best price performance, especially education and medical care. The characteristic of these two types of consumer goods is that they have to be completed manually. Therefore, when it comes to labor costs, they all need to raise wages, and at the same time, they are basically It is a necessary product, and the price increase ability of the corresponding product side is also stronger.</p><p>Durable consumer goods, mostly manufacturing, will continue to undergo technological progress, cost reduction, machine substitution, etc., so product prices will fall instead of rising.</p><p><b>In the end, from the perspective of price increase ability, the ranking of sustainable growth rate is likely to be: education, medical care > alcohol, food > furniture, home appliances, automobiles, clothing, and electronic products.</b></p><p><b>Risk warning:</b>The risk of US Treasury yields continuing to rise, the inflection point of global liquidity, the risk of performance not meeting expectations, etc.</p>","source":"lsy1570490450509","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>The two logics of A-share core assets: removing the false and preserving the true, and selecting the best among the best</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nThe two logics of A-share core assets: removing the false and preserving the true, and selecting the best among the best\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">分析师徐彪</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-03-23 11:32</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>Abstract: Pay attention to enterprises with the globalization ability of manufacturing industry and consumer goods with the strongest long-term price increase ability.<b>Core conclusions:</b></p><p>After the Spring Festival, the A-share market has changed greatly. During the recent roadshow, investors also have many differences on different issues. In this report, we show 10 groups of charts with high attention in roadshows and update our latest strategic views.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/72451927496531ba1262d90459a315fd\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"735\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>① First of all, regarding the performance disclosure rules, there is one point that needs to be added. In order to implement the relevant information disclosure requirements of the new Securities Law, on the evening of March 19, the China Securities Regulatory Commission issued the revised Measures for the Administration of Information Disclosure of Listed Companies (hereinafter referred to as the \"Letter Disclosure Measures\"), which will come into effect on May 1, 2021.<b>One of the biggest changes is that the periodic reports that listed companies should disclose include annual reports and interim reports. Compared with the previous version, the quarterly report is removed.</b></p><p>That is to say, the first quarterly report of 2021 will continue to be disclosed in accordance with the previous requirements, but the disclosure rules for future quarterly reports must be subject to the follow-up arrangements of the Shanghai and Shenzhen Stock Exchanges.</p><p>② Secondly, this year's performance disclosure period may be crucial to the A-share market. As the country enters a credit contraction cycle in 2021 (the growth rate of total debt falls), and global interest rates and inflation expectations are easy to rise but difficult to fall, it is difficult for the A-share market to raise valuations significantly as in 2019 and 2020, so performance has become the driving force for stock prices. core factor.</p><p><b>That is, the A-share market may usher in the catalysis of the numerator side during the performance disclosure period, but it will face the uncertainty of the denominator side during the performance window period. Therefore, in early April, the intensive disclosure period of the first quarterly report forecast is approaching, providing a window period for A-shares to rebound.</b></p><p>③ Finally, regarding the structure of the first quarterly report, two types of companies are most likely to exceed expectations: first, the sector with pro-cyclical price increases; The second is the sector whose own industrial cycle is rising (upstream military industry, production line equipment, new energy vehicles, etc.).</p><p>In addition, for opening up a new battlefield of excess returns, the first quarterly report is also crucial. Many mid-cap growth stocks need continuous verification of performance in order to form cohesion.<b>In this respect, our stock selection strategy model can just come in handy, especially the [prosperity growth] model. We have set 20 fundamental factors including profitability, profit trend, asset quality, and financial health. After each financial reporting period, all A shares are fundamentally screened, and the effectiveness of the screening logic is backtested.</b></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b4aad5a990c61c7c8e9138c260d16692\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"567\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>In the figure above, we use the 10Y Treasury Bond yield minus the CSI 300 Dividend ratio to measure the cost performance of the CSI 300. This indicator is in the extreme position and has a relatively strong guiding significance for the market.</p><p><b>Once the yield difference between stocks and bonds is close to negative two standard deviations, the market will subsequently rebound, such as typical late March 2020. For details, please refer to our report at that time, \"The yield difference between stocks and bonds is the lowest in ten years, and the peripheral earthquake is huge, but the risk of A shares is controllable\".</b></p><p><b>On the contrary, when the yield difference between stocks and bonds is close to positive twice the standard deviation, the market will subsequently incur certain risks, such as typical times before the Spring Festival in 2021, early 2018, and mid-2015.</b></p><p>At present, after market adjustment, the yield difference between Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 stocks and bonds has dropped back to around positive standard deviation.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1f5bb20f7f0706bf18d1bc22f79a62a7\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"564\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>With the same logic, in the figure above, we use the 10Y Treasury Bond yield minus the CSI 500 Dividend ratio to measure the cost performance of the CSI 500.</p><p>In the past six months, the yield difference between stocks and bonds of CSI 500 has fluctuated around the average. Compared with CSI 300, the risk-return ratio is relatively higher. This is also our proposal to open up a new battlefield for excess returns, appropriately sink to some mid-cap growth stocks, and find a data support for potential core assets in the future.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2b0dcc0d356ca840dfb781e853701d28\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"672\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>In terms of stages, domestic credit will shrink in 2021, and global interest rates will be easy to rise but difficult to fall, which is relatively unfavorable to companies with excessively high long-term premiums. The molecular end (performance) is more important at present. Equity incentives can effectively lock in the molecular end, that is, lock in the high growth rate in the next 1-3 years, which can become the key to opening up a new battlefield of excess returns.</p><p><b>So, what kind of equity incentives can bring excess returns?</b></p><p>(1) Buying time: the earlier you buy, the better: plan announcement date > shareholders' meeting announcement date > first implementation announcement date;</p><p>(2) Holding time: The long holding period still has good excess returns, which is operable.</p><p>(3) Termination of equity incentive plan: valuation killing will occur in the short term, and investors should avoid risks</p><p>(4) Industry: Growth industries prefer equity incentives, and the rate of return within the industry is obviously differentiated.</p><p>(5) Market value: Equity incentives are mainly based on small market capitalization below 20 billion yuan, but companies with more than 20 billion yuan are the key to obtaining excess returns in equity incentives, which can be used as reserves for excess returns.</p><p>(6) Incentive intensity (\"quantity\"): If the total number of incentives accounts for more than 3% of the total equity at that time, a higher excess rate of return can be obtained, but excessively high incentive ratio will actually lower the rate of return, and 3%-5% is a better range.</p><p>(7) Incentive intensity (\"price\"): different grant discount rates of equity incentive have no obvious impact on excess return;</p><p>(8) Exercise conditions: it is required that the growth rate of net profit changes from negative to positive to obtain higher excess returns; In addition, the stricter the requirements for net profit growth, the greater the excess rate of return; However, the required growth rate is too high, and the excess returns will fall instead.</p><p>(9) Incentive method: options (exercisable stocks come from fixed increase) > fixed increase of stocks > buying circulating A shares > 5%.</p><p>(10) Among the nature of enterprises, private and foreign capital are higher.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d976f8634c2bc265bec3704386dbc361\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"797\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><b>① In 1973-1979, in the valuation stage of Nifty 50, the companies with positive profit catalysis were resistant to the decline, or companies with smaller bubbles in the valuation stage; For companies with serious valuation overdraft after continuous rises, the risk of killing valuation is greater.</b></p><p>During the valuation killing stage from 1973 to 1979, among the 30 companies with relatively complete data in the table below, the average valuation decline was 72.4%, the average profit growth rate was 16.3%, the average stock price increase was-15.9%, and the average excess return was-7.3%.</p><p><b>During this period, there are two main types of companies whose valuations have declined less:</b></p><p>First, resource or oil service companies that benefit from rising oil prices, such as Halliburton and Lubrizol;</p><p>Second, in the early 1970s, companies with relatively small valuations, such as Bristol-Myers, Pfizer, General Electric, etc., had peak valuations of only about 30 times.</p><p><b>On the contrary, there are two main types of companies with large declines:</b></p><p>First, companies with low profit growth rates, such as the three companies with the largest declines (Avon, Sears, and Kodak), all have significantly lower profit growth rates than the average level;</p><p>Second, companies that greatly raised their valuations in the early 1970s, such as Disney, McDonald's, and Coca-Cola, had valuations of 84 times, 85 times, and 48 times respectively at the end of 1972, and then ranked first in the valuation range in 1973-79., although profits at this time continue to grow at a high rate.</p><p><b>② For the core assets of A-shares, there is a high probability that the magnitude and time of killing the valuation will not replicate the situation of the US stock market at that time.</b>One of the most critical factors is that the current world does not have the 10-year stagflation environment triggered by the oil crisis in the 1970s and the Middle East war (US Treasury yields rose from 5% to 14% at that time).</p><p><b>③ It is worth learning that after the valuation of A-share core assets is significantly adjusted, there may be a high probability of differentiation. According to the differentiation of Beautiful 50, it is expected that among the A-share core assets, two types of companies may perform relatively better in the future. First, some high-end manufacturing leaders, such as new energy, new materials, machinery, etc., whose molecular performance can rise substantially. Second, the leader whose valuation has been relatively small in the past two years.</b></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/52e9beb18b1352b8eeb1a3c33e82d48f\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"417\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>As shown in the figure above, we sort and grade all companies in the U.S. stock market according to their market value at the beginning of each year, and calculate the median increase of this group of companies in that year.</p><p>It can be found that in the 75-79 years when the U.S. stock market Nifty 50 digested the valuation, the mid-cap stocks (groups 4-8) in the U.S. stock market outperformed for about 5 consecutive years. It is also the longest time that U.S. mid-cap stocks have continued to outperform in the past 50 years.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/cf85edeaa49138a6eab9620e0a8bf2b9\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"535\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><b>Starting in the late 1970s, the Nifty 50 really entered an ultra-long bull market driven by continued earnings.</b>From January 1970 to June 2020, the Nifty 50 rose 207 times, and the S&P 500 rose 33 times.</p><p><b>The high-yield stage mainly came from 1980 to 2010. During these 30 years, the Nifty 50 only underperformed the S&P 500 in 4 years (83, 88, 98, 99).</b>Wherein:</p><p>In the 1980s, the Nifty 50 rose 457%, the S&P 500 rose 226%, and the excess return was 231%;</p><p>In the 1990s, the Nifty 50 rose 484%, the S&P 500 rose 316%, and the excess return was 168%;</p><p>In the 2000s, the Nifty 50 rose 75%, the S&P 500 rose-24%, and the excess return was 99%.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1e95904166e8318bfbd7673350395e64\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"569\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><b>Profitability (high ROE) is the key to the long-term victory of the Nifty 50.</b>The ROE of the Nifty 50 has been higher than the S&P 500 index for a long time. This state lasted until around 2010, and the excess ROE performance after that weakened. The reason is that the Nifty 50 after 2010 is no longer the Nifty 50 in the 1970s. The excess returns of the Nifty 50 relative to the S&P 500 also began to weaken after this point in time.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b785d55bc1ff6f847fc3e15f84369869\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"394\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/351384a507cc74721f7ea457cf708888\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"396\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0131d925243edaa1de75cba97a4ba4a6\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"705\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/06b9dd807a2d8bc206747fb85165cf87\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"704\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><b>Since the 1980s and 1990s, the pace of global expansion of U.S. stock companies has been the key to supporting the profits and stock prices of leading industries in various U.S. stocks to a higher level.</b>Global expansion not only brings new growth space for leading companies in these industries, but also drives the cyclical weakening of the industry, and even increases the profitability center.</p><p>For A-share companies, the globalization of mid-to-high-end manufacturing industry is more likely, especially the suspension of production caused by the continuous overseas epidemic in 2020, which is the beginning of a round of globalization of China's manufacturing industry.</p><p>The increase in overseas penetration rate can partially offset the volatility of domestic demand, making the company's ROE more stable and ultimately corresponding to a higher valuation level.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/55165042d7231e56c1a7a214792b5441\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"500\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f6297d9a42e89f28b2fded875cc8913a\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"297\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>As shown in the above model, the three-stage sustainable growth rate has a great impact on valuation.</p><p>In other words, among the core assets, we should select companies with relatively higher sustainable growth rates as the long-term layout track.</p><p>For most consumer goods companies, after entering a steady state, the \"volume\" has basically remained stable, and the growth mainly comes from the increase in \"price\".</p><p>Therefore, the strength of the price increase ability corresponds to the level of sustainable growth rate.</p><p>Regarding the price increase ability of different consumer goods, we can first look at a set of data:</p><p>From the long-term growth rate of CPI and CPI segments in various countries, not all consumer industry CPI can outperform the overall CPI. Generally speaking, the long-term growth rate of consumer staples is higher than the overall CPI, while the long-term growth rate of optional consumer goods is lower than the overall CPI. overall CPI. This is consistent with the logic that consumer staples outperform optional consumer goods in the U.S. stock market for a long time. Consumer staples are prone to brand and customer loyalty accumulation, and if there is an industry with a trend of industry concentration, the growth rate can be added.</p><p>In fact, the service industry has the best price performance, especially education and medical care. The characteristic of these two types of consumer goods is that they have to be completed manually. Therefore, when it comes to labor costs, they all need to raise wages, and at the same time, they are basically It is a necessary product, and the price increase ability of the corresponding product side is also stronger.</p><p>Durable consumer goods, mostly manufacturing, will continue to undergo technological progress, cost reduction, machine substitution, etc., so product prices will fall instead of rising.</p><p><b>In the end, from the perspective of price increase ability, the ranking of sustainable growth rate is likely to be: education, medical care > alcohol, food > furniture, home appliances, automobiles, clothing, and electronic products.</b></p><p><b>Risk warning:</b>The risk of US Treasury yields continuing to rise, the inflection point of global liquidity, the risk of performance not meeting expectations, etc.</p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> source：<a href=\"https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s/A60ZUPvXYOBZPZI5twF41g\">分析师徐彪</a></p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4a10424fe3b1f29e8d28fdc0dc474e86","relate_stocks":{"399001":"深证成指","399006":"创业板指","000001.SH":"上证指数"},"source_url":"https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s/A60ZUPvXYOBZPZI5twF41g","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1107778493","content_text":"摘要：关注具备制造业的全球化能力的企业，以及长期涨价能力最强的消费品。核心结论：春节过后，A股市场变化较大，近期路演过程中，针对不同问题，投资者也存在很多分歧，本篇报告，我们展示10组路演中关注度较高的图表，并更新我们的最新策略观点。① 首先，关于业绩披露规则，有一点需要补充说明，为贯彻落实新《证券法》信息披露相关要求，3月19日晚，证监会发布修订后的《上市公司信息披露管理办法》（以下简称《信披办法》），自2021年5月1日起施行。其中一个最大变化是：上市公司应当披露的定期报告包括年度报告、中期报告。相对前一个版本，去掉了季度报告。也就是说2021年一季报还要继续按照前期要求披露，但是未来季度报告的披露规则，还需以沪深交易所的后续安排为准。② 其次，今年的业绩披露期，对于A股市场可能是至关重要的。由于2021年国内进入信用收缩周期（债务总额增速回落）、全球利率和通胀预期易上难下，因此A股市场很难再像2019和2020年一样大幅提估值，于是业绩就成为推动股价的核心因素。即A股市场在业绩披露期可能迎来分子端的催化，但是在业绩空窗期，则面临分母端的不确定性。因此，4月上旬，一季报预告密集披露期临近，为A股反弹提供了窗口期。③ 最后，关于一季报的结构方面，两类公司出现超预期的可能性最高：一是顺周期中涨价的板块；二是自身产业周期上升的板块（军工上游、生产线设备、新能源车等）。除此之外，对于开辟超额收益的新战场，一季报也至关重要，很多中盘成长股，需要业绩的连续验证，才能形成凝聚力。在这一方面，我们的选股策略模型，正好可以派上用场，尤其是【景气成长】模型，我们设置了包括盈利能力、盈利趋势、资产质量、财务健康程度在内的20个基本面因子，在每个财报期之后，对所有A股进行基本面筛选，并回测筛选逻辑的有效性。上图中，我们用10Y国债收益率减沪深300股息率来衡量沪深300的性价比，这一指标在极致位置上，对市场的指引意义相对比较强。一旦股债收益差接近负两倍标准差，市场随后都会有反弹，比如典型的2020年3月下旬。详见当时我们的报告《股债收益差十年最低，外围巨震，但A股风险可控》。相反，当股债收益差接近正两倍标准差的时候，市场随后都会产生一定风险，比如典型的2021年春节前、2018年初、2015年中等。目前，经过市场调整，沪深300股债收益差回落到正一倍标准差附近。同样逻辑，上图中，我们用10Y国债收益率减中证500股息率来衡量中证500的性价比。过去半年，中证500的股债收益差围绕均值上下波动，与沪深300相比，风险收益比相对更高一些，这也是我们提出开辟超额收益新战场，适当下沉到一些中盘成长股、寻找未来潜在核心资产的一个数据方面的支撑。阶段性来说，2021年国内信用收缩、全球利率易上难下，对长久期溢价过高的公司相对不利，分子端（业绩）在当前更为重要。而股权激励能够有效的锁定分子端，即锁定未来1-3年的高增速，能够成为开辟超额收益的新战场的关键。那么，什么样的股权激励更能够带来超额收益？（1）买入时点：越早买入越好：预案公告日>股东大会公告日>首次实施公告日；（2）持有时间：持有期限较长仍有不错的超额收益，具备可操作性。（3）股权激励方案终止：短期会出现杀估值现象，投资者应规避风险（4）行业：成长行业更加青睐股权激励，行业内收益率分化明显。（5）市值：股权激励主要以200亿以下的小市值为主，但200亿以上的公司才是股权激励中，获得超额收益率的关键，可以作为超额收益的储备。（6）激励强度（“量”）：激励总数占当时总股本比例在3%以上能够获得更高的超额收益率，但过高的激励占比反而会拉低收益率，3%-5%是一个比较好的区间。（7）激励强度（“价”）：股权激励的不同授股折价率对超额收益率的影响不明显；（8）行权条件：要求净利润增速由负转正能够获得较高的超额收益；此外，对净利润增速的要求越严苛，超额收益率越大；但要求增速过高，超额收益反而回落。（9）激励方式：期权（行权股票来源于定增）>股票定增>买入流通A股>5%。（10）企业性质中，民营和外资较高。① 73-79年，漂亮50杀估值阶段，抗跌的是盈利有正向催化的公司，或拔估值阶段泡沫较小的公司；而对于连续上涨之后估值透支严重的公司，杀估值风险较大。73-79年的杀估值阶段，在下表数据较全的30家公司中，估值平均跌幅为72.4%，平均盈利增速为16.3%，平均股价涨幅为-15.9%，平均超额收益为-7.3%。在这段时间，估值跌幅较少的公司，主要有两类：一是受益于油价上涨的资源或油服公司，如哈里伯顿、路博润等；二是70年代初期拔估值幅度较小的公司，如百时美、辉瑞、通用电气等估值峰值仅达到30倍左右。相反，跌幅较大的公司，主要也有两类：一是盈利增速较低的公司，比如跌幅最大的3家公司（雅芳、西尔斯、柯达）盈利增速均大幅低于平均水平；二是70年代初期大幅拔估值的公司，比如迪士尼、麦当劳、可口可乐，72年底的估值分别达到了84倍、85倍、48倍，之后在73-79年的杀估值幅度也居前，尽管此时的盈利仍持续高增长。② 对于A股的核心资产来说，杀估值的幅度和时间，大概率不会复制美股漂亮50当时的情况，其中一个最关键的因素在于，当前全球不具备70年代石油危机、中东战争引发的10年滞胀的环境（彼时美债利率从5%上升到14%）。③ 值得借鉴的是，在A股核心资产估值显著调整之后，大概率也可能要出现分化的过程，根据漂亮50分化的情况，预计A股核心资产中，两类公司未来可能表现相对更好，一是分子端业绩能够大幅上升的一些高端制造龙头比如新能源、新材料、机械等。二是，过去两年提估值幅度较小的龙头。如上图所示，我们将美股的所有公司按照每年年初的市值进行排序和分档，并计算这一组公司在当年涨幅的中位数。可以发现，在美股漂亮50消化估值的75-79年中，美股的中盘股（4-8组）出现了连续5年左右的跑赢。也是近50年来，美股中盘股持续跑赢时间最长的一次。从70年代后期开始，漂亮50真正进入了盈利持续推动的超长牛市。从1970年1月到2020年6月，漂亮50上涨了207倍，标普500上涨了33倍。高收益阶段主要来自1980-2010年，这30年期间，漂亮50仅在4个年份（83、88、98、99）跑输标普500。其中：80年代，漂亮50上涨457%，标普500上涨226%，超额收益231%；90年代，漂亮50上涨484%，标普500上涨316%，超额收益168%；00年代，漂亮50上涨75%，标普500上涨-24%，超额收益99%。盈利能力（高ROE）是漂亮50长期取胜的关键。漂亮50的ROE长期高于标普500指数，这一状态持续至2010年左右，之后的ROE超额表现弱化，原因在于2010年之后的漂亮50，已非70年代的漂亮50。而漂亮50相对标普500的超额收益也在这个时间点之后开始走弱。80-90年代以来，美股公司全球化扩张的步伐，是支撑美股各行业龙头盈利和股价再上台阶的关键。全球化扩张不只带来这些行业龙头公司新的成长空间，而且也驱使行业周期性弱化，甚至能获得盈利能力中枢的抬升。对于A股公司而言，中高端制造业的全球化可能性更大，尤其是2020年海外疫情持续导致的停工停产，是一轮中国制造业全球化国运的开始。海外渗透率的提升，可以部分抵消国内需求的波动性，使得公司ROE具备更强的稳定性，最终对应更高的估值水平。如上图模型所示，三阶段的永续增长率，对估值的影响非常大。换句话说，我们应该在核心资产中，挑选永续增长率相对更高的公司作为长期布局的赛道。对于大部分消费品公司而言，进入稳态状态后，“量”已经基本维持稳定，增长主要来自与“价”的上涨。于是涨价能力的强弱，就对应了永续增长率的高低。关于不同消费品的涨价能力，我们可以先看一组数据：从各国的CPI及CPI细分领域的长期增长率，并非所有的消费行业CPI都能跑赢整体CPI，一般来说，必需消费品长期增速高于整体CPI，而可选消费品的长期增速低于整体CPI。这与美股市场上必需消费品长期跑赢可选消费品的逻辑是一致的，必需消费品容易有品牌和客户忠诚度积累，且若有行业集中趋势的行业，则增长率还能有加成。事实上，价格表现最好的是服务业，尤其是教育和医疗，这两类消费品的特点是不得不由人工来完成，因此，涉及到了人力成本，都是要涨工资的，同时也基本属于必须品，对应产品端的涨价能力也更强。而耐用消费品，大多是制造类的，会不断发生技术进步、成本下降、机器换人等等，因此产品价格不涨反降。最终，涨价能力的角度，永续增长率的排序大概率是：教育、医疗＞酒类、食品＞家具、家电、汽车、服装、电子产品。风险提示：美债利率继续上行的风险，全球流动性拐点，业绩不达预期风险等。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"399001":0.9,"399006":0.9,"000001.SH":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":689,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0}],"hots":[{"id":353124515,"gmtCreate":1616472371237,"gmtModify":1704794532920,"author":{"id":"3558351956044713","authorId":"3558351956044713","name":"浏小小","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/fb8e95f8d8b44a34dc0399cf42db62a5","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3558351956044713","authorIdStr":"3558351956044713"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Mark","listText":"Mark","text":"Mark","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/353124515","repostId":"1107778493","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1107778493","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1616470339,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1107778493?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2021-03-23 11:32","market":"sh","language":"zh","title":"The two logics of A-share core assets: removing the false and preserving the true, and selecting the best among the best","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1107778493","media":"分析师徐彪","summary":"摘要：关注具备制造业的全球化能力的企业，以及长期涨价能力最强的消费品。核心结论：春节过后，A股市场变化较大，近期路演过程中，针对不同问题，投资者也存在很多分歧，本篇报告，我们展示10组路演中关注度较高","content":"<p>Abstract: Pay attention to enterprises with the globalization ability of manufacturing industry and consumer goods with the strongest long-term price increase ability.<b>Core conclusions:</b></p><p>After the Spring Festival, the A-share market has changed greatly. During the recent roadshow, investors also have many differences on different issues. In this report, we show 10 groups of charts with high attention in roadshows and update our latest strategic views.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/72451927496531ba1262d90459a315fd\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"735\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>① First of all, regarding the performance disclosure rules, there is one point that needs to be added. In order to implement the relevant information disclosure requirements of the new Securities Law, on the evening of March 19, the China Securities Regulatory Commission issued the revised Measures for the Administration of Information Disclosure of Listed Companies (hereinafter referred to as the \"Letter Disclosure Measures\"), which will come into effect on May 1, 2021.<b>One of the biggest changes is that the periodic reports that listed companies should disclose include annual reports and interim reports. Compared with the previous version, the quarterly report is removed.</b></p><p>That is to say, the first quarterly report of 2021 will continue to be disclosed in accordance with the previous requirements, but the disclosure rules for future quarterly reports must be subject to the follow-up arrangements of the Shanghai and Shenzhen Stock Exchanges.</p><p>② Secondly, this year's performance disclosure period may be crucial to the A-share market. As the country enters a credit contraction cycle in 2021 (the growth rate of total debt falls), and global interest rates and inflation expectations are easy to rise but difficult to fall, it is difficult for the A-share market to raise valuations significantly as in 2019 and 2020, so performance has become the driving force for stock prices. core factor.</p><p><b>That is, the A-share market may usher in the catalysis of the numerator side during the performance disclosure period, but it will face the uncertainty of the denominator side during the performance window period. Therefore, in early April, the intensive disclosure period of the first quarterly report forecast is approaching, providing a window period for A-shares to rebound.</b></p><p>③ Finally, regarding the structure of the first quarterly report, two types of companies are most likely to exceed expectations: first, the sector with pro-cyclical price increases; The second is the sector whose own industrial cycle is rising (upstream military industry, production line equipment, new energy vehicles, etc.).</p><p>In addition, for opening up a new battlefield of excess returns, the first quarterly report is also crucial. Many mid-cap growth stocks need continuous verification of performance in order to form cohesion.<b>In this respect, our stock selection strategy model can just come in handy, especially the [prosperity growth] model. We have set 20 fundamental factors including profitability, profit trend, asset quality, and financial health. After each financial reporting period, all A shares are fundamentally screened, and the effectiveness of the screening logic is backtested.</b></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b4aad5a990c61c7c8e9138c260d16692\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"567\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>In the figure above, we use the 10Y Treasury Bond yield minus the CSI 300 Dividend ratio to measure the cost performance of the CSI 300. This indicator is in the extreme position and has a relatively strong guiding significance for the market.</p><p><b>Once the yield difference between stocks and bonds is close to negative two standard deviations, the market will subsequently rebound, such as typical late March 2020. For details, please refer to our report at that time, \"The yield difference between stocks and bonds is the lowest in ten years, and the peripheral earthquake is huge, but the risk of A shares is controllable\".</b></p><p><b>On the contrary, when the yield difference between stocks and bonds is close to positive twice the standard deviation, the market will subsequently incur certain risks, such as typical times before the Spring Festival in 2021, early 2018, and mid-2015.</b></p><p>At present, after market adjustment, the yield difference between Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 stocks and bonds has dropped back to around positive standard deviation.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1f5bb20f7f0706bf18d1bc22f79a62a7\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"564\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>With the same logic, in the figure above, we use the 10Y Treasury Bond yield minus the CSI 500 Dividend ratio to measure the cost performance of the CSI 500.</p><p>In the past six months, the yield difference between stocks and bonds of CSI 500 has fluctuated around the average. Compared with CSI 300, the risk-return ratio is relatively higher. This is also our proposal to open up a new battlefield for excess returns, appropriately sink to some mid-cap growth stocks, and find a data support for potential core assets in the future.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2b0dcc0d356ca840dfb781e853701d28\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"672\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>In terms of stages, domestic credit will shrink in 2021, and global interest rates will be easy to rise but difficult to fall, which is relatively unfavorable to companies with excessively high long-term premiums. The molecular end (performance) is more important at present. Equity incentives can effectively lock in the molecular end, that is, lock in the high growth rate in the next 1-3 years, which can become the key to opening up a new battlefield of excess returns.</p><p><b>So, what kind of equity incentives can bring excess returns?</b></p><p>(1) Buying time: the earlier you buy, the better: plan announcement date > shareholders' meeting announcement date > first implementation announcement date;</p><p>(2) Holding time: The long holding period still has good excess returns, which is operable.</p><p>(3) Termination of equity incentive plan: valuation killing will occur in the short term, and investors should avoid risks</p><p>(4) Industry: Growth industries prefer equity incentives, and the rate of return within the industry is obviously differentiated.</p><p>(5) Market value: Equity incentives are mainly based on small market capitalization below 20 billion yuan, but companies with more than 20 billion yuan are the key to obtaining excess returns in equity incentives, which can be used as reserves for excess returns.</p><p>(6) Incentive intensity (\"quantity\"): If the total number of incentives accounts for more than 3% of the total equity at that time, a higher excess rate of return can be obtained, but excessively high incentive ratio will actually lower the rate of return, and 3%-5% is a better range.</p><p>(7) Incentive intensity (\"price\"): different grant discount rates of equity incentive have no obvious impact on excess return;</p><p>(8) Exercise conditions: it is required that the growth rate of net profit changes from negative to positive to obtain higher excess returns; In addition, the stricter the requirements for net profit growth, the greater the excess rate of return; However, the required growth rate is too high, and the excess returns will fall instead.</p><p>(9) Incentive method: options (exercisable stocks come from fixed increase) > fixed increase of stocks > buying circulating A shares > 5%.</p><p>(10) Among the nature of enterprises, private and foreign capital are higher.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d976f8634c2bc265bec3704386dbc361\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"797\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><b>① In 1973-1979, in the valuation stage of Nifty 50, the companies with positive profit catalysis were resistant to the decline, or companies with smaller bubbles in the valuation stage; For companies with serious valuation overdraft after continuous rises, the risk of killing valuation is greater.</b></p><p>During the valuation killing stage from 1973 to 1979, among the 30 companies with relatively complete data in the table below, the average valuation decline was 72.4%, the average profit growth rate was 16.3%, the average stock price increase was-15.9%, and the average excess return was-7.3%.</p><p><b>During this period, there are two main types of companies whose valuations have declined less:</b></p><p>First, resource or oil service companies that benefit from rising oil prices, such as Halliburton and Lubrizol;</p><p>Second, in the early 1970s, companies with relatively small valuations, such as Bristol-Myers, Pfizer, General Electric, etc., had peak valuations of only about 30 times.</p><p><b>On the contrary, there are two main types of companies with large declines:</b></p><p>First, companies with low profit growth rates, such as the three companies with the largest declines (Avon, Sears, and Kodak), all have significantly lower profit growth rates than the average level;</p><p>Second, companies that greatly raised their valuations in the early 1970s, such as Disney, McDonald's, and Coca-Cola, had valuations of 84 times, 85 times, and 48 times respectively at the end of 1972, and then ranked first in the valuation range in 1973-79., although profits at this time continue to grow at a high rate.</p><p><b>② For the core assets of A-shares, there is a high probability that the magnitude and time of killing the valuation will not replicate the situation of the US stock market at that time.</b>One of the most critical factors is that the current world does not have the 10-year stagflation environment triggered by the oil crisis in the 1970s and the Middle East war (US Treasury yields rose from 5% to 14% at that time).</p><p><b>③ It is worth learning that after the valuation of A-share core assets is significantly adjusted, there may be a high probability of differentiation. According to the differentiation of Beautiful 50, it is expected that among the A-share core assets, two types of companies may perform relatively better in the future. First, some high-end manufacturing leaders, such as new energy, new materials, machinery, etc., whose molecular performance can rise substantially. Second, the leader whose valuation has been relatively small in the past two years.</b></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/52e9beb18b1352b8eeb1a3c33e82d48f\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"417\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>As shown in the figure above, we sort and grade all companies in the U.S. stock market according to their market value at the beginning of each year, and calculate the median increase of this group of companies in that year.</p><p>It can be found that in the 75-79 years when the U.S. stock market Nifty 50 digested the valuation, the mid-cap stocks (groups 4-8) in the U.S. stock market outperformed for about 5 consecutive years. It is also the longest time that U.S. mid-cap stocks have continued to outperform in the past 50 years.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/cf85edeaa49138a6eab9620e0a8bf2b9\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"535\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><b>Starting in the late 1970s, the Nifty 50 really entered an ultra-long bull market driven by continued earnings.</b>From January 1970 to June 2020, the Nifty 50 rose 207 times, and the S&P 500 rose 33 times.</p><p><b>The high-yield stage mainly came from 1980 to 2010. During these 30 years, the Nifty 50 only underperformed the S&P 500 in 4 years (83, 88, 98, 99).</b>Wherein:</p><p>In the 1980s, the Nifty 50 rose 457%, the S&P 500 rose 226%, and the excess return was 231%;</p><p>In the 1990s, the Nifty 50 rose 484%, the S&P 500 rose 316%, and the excess return was 168%;</p><p>In the 2000s, the Nifty 50 rose 75%, the S&P 500 rose-24%, and the excess return was 99%.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1e95904166e8318bfbd7673350395e64\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"569\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><b>Profitability (high ROE) is the key to the long-term victory of the Nifty 50.</b>The ROE of the Nifty 50 has been higher than the S&P 500 index for a long time. This state lasted until around 2010, and the excess ROE performance after that weakened. The reason is that the Nifty 50 after 2010 is no longer the Nifty 50 in the 1970s. The excess returns of the Nifty 50 relative to the S&P 500 also began to weaken after this point in time.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b785d55bc1ff6f847fc3e15f84369869\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"394\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/351384a507cc74721f7ea457cf708888\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"396\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0131d925243edaa1de75cba97a4ba4a6\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"705\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/06b9dd807a2d8bc206747fb85165cf87\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"704\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><b>Since the 1980s and 1990s, the pace of global expansion of U.S. stock companies has been the key to supporting the profits and stock prices of leading industries in various U.S. stocks to a higher level.</b>Global expansion not only brings new growth space for leading companies in these industries, but also drives the cyclical weakening of the industry, and even increases the profitability center.</p><p>For A-share companies, the globalization of mid-to-high-end manufacturing industry is more likely, especially the suspension of production caused by the continuous overseas epidemic in 2020, which is the beginning of a round of globalization of China's manufacturing industry.</p><p>The increase in overseas penetration rate can partially offset the volatility of domestic demand, making the company's ROE more stable and ultimately corresponding to a higher valuation level.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/55165042d7231e56c1a7a214792b5441\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"500\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f6297d9a42e89f28b2fded875cc8913a\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"297\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>As shown in the above model, the three-stage sustainable growth rate has a great impact on valuation.</p><p>In other words, among the core assets, we should select companies with relatively higher sustainable growth rates as the long-term layout track.</p><p>For most consumer goods companies, after entering a steady state, the \"volume\" has basically remained stable, and the growth mainly comes from the increase in \"price\".</p><p>Therefore, the strength of the price increase ability corresponds to the level of sustainable growth rate.</p><p>Regarding the price increase ability of different consumer goods, we can first look at a set of data:</p><p>From the long-term growth rate of CPI and CPI segments in various countries, not all consumer industry CPI can outperform the overall CPI. Generally speaking, the long-term growth rate of consumer staples is higher than the overall CPI, while the long-term growth rate of optional consumer goods is lower than the overall CPI. overall CPI. This is consistent with the logic that consumer staples outperform optional consumer goods in the U.S. stock market for a long time. Consumer staples are prone to brand and customer loyalty accumulation, and if there is an industry with a trend of industry concentration, the growth rate can be added.</p><p>In fact, the service industry has the best price performance, especially education and medical care. The characteristic of these two types of consumer goods is that they have to be completed manually. Therefore, when it comes to labor costs, they all need to raise wages, and at the same time, they are basically It is a necessary product, and the price increase ability of the corresponding product side is also stronger.</p><p>Durable consumer goods, mostly manufacturing, will continue to undergo technological progress, cost reduction, machine substitution, etc., so product prices will fall instead of rising.</p><p><b>In the end, from the perspective of price increase ability, the ranking of sustainable growth rate is likely to be: education, medical care > alcohol, food > furniture, home appliances, automobiles, clothing, and electronic products.</b></p><p><b>Risk warning:</b>The risk of US Treasury yields continuing to rise, the inflection point of global liquidity, the risk of performance not meeting expectations, etc.</p>","source":"lsy1570490450509","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>The two logics of A-share core assets: removing the false and preserving the true, and selecting the best among the best</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nThe two logics of A-share core assets: removing the false and preserving the true, and selecting the best among the best\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">分析师徐彪</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-03-23 11:32</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>Abstract: Pay attention to enterprises with the globalization ability of manufacturing industry and consumer goods with the strongest long-term price increase ability.<b>Core conclusions:</b></p><p>After the Spring Festival, the A-share market has changed greatly. During the recent roadshow, investors also have many differences on different issues. In this report, we show 10 groups of charts with high attention in roadshows and update our latest strategic views.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/72451927496531ba1262d90459a315fd\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"735\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>① First of all, regarding the performance disclosure rules, there is one point that needs to be added. In order to implement the relevant information disclosure requirements of the new Securities Law, on the evening of March 19, the China Securities Regulatory Commission issued the revised Measures for the Administration of Information Disclosure of Listed Companies (hereinafter referred to as the \"Letter Disclosure Measures\"), which will come into effect on May 1, 2021.<b>One of the biggest changes is that the periodic reports that listed companies should disclose include annual reports and interim reports. Compared with the previous version, the quarterly report is removed.</b></p><p>That is to say, the first quarterly report of 2021 will continue to be disclosed in accordance with the previous requirements, but the disclosure rules for future quarterly reports must be subject to the follow-up arrangements of the Shanghai and Shenzhen Stock Exchanges.</p><p>② Secondly, this year's performance disclosure period may be crucial to the A-share market. As the country enters a credit contraction cycle in 2021 (the growth rate of total debt falls), and global interest rates and inflation expectations are easy to rise but difficult to fall, it is difficult for the A-share market to raise valuations significantly as in 2019 and 2020, so performance has become the driving force for stock prices. core factor.</p><p><b>That is, the A-share market may usher in the catalysis of the numerator side during the performance disclosure period, but it will face the uncertainty of the denominator side during the performance window period. Therefore, in early April, the intensive disclosure period of the first quarterly report forecast is approaching, providing a window period for A-shares to rebound.</b></p><p>③ Finally, regarding the structure of the first quarterly report, two types of companies are most likely to exceed expectations: first, the sector with pro-cyclical price increases; The second is the sector whose own industrial cycle is rising (upstream military industry, production line equipment, new energy vehicles, etc.).</p><p>In addition, for opening up a new battlefield of excess returns, the first quarterly report is also crucial. Many mid-cap growth stocks need continuous verification of performance in order to form cohesion.<b>In this respect, our stock selection strategy model can just come in handy, especially the [prosperity growth] model. We have set 20 fundamental factors including profitability, profit trend, asset quality, and financial health. After each financial reporting period, all A shares are fundamentally screened, and the effectiveness of the screening logic is backtested.</b></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b4aad5a990c61c7c8e9138c260d16692\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"567\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>In the figure above, we use the 10Y Treasury Bond yield minus the CSI 300 Dividend ratio to measure the cost performance of the CSI 300. This indicator is in the extreme position and has a relatively strong guiding significance for the market.</p><p><b>Once the yield difference between stocks and bonds is close to negative two standard deviations, the market will subsequently rebound, such as typical late March 2020. For details, please refer to our report at that time, \"The yield difference between stocks and bonds is the lowest in ten years, and the peripheral earthquake is huge, but the risk of A shares is controllable\".</b></p><p><b>On the contrary, when the yield difference between stocks and bonds is close to positive twice the standard deviation, the market will subsequently incur certain risks, such as typical times before the Spring Festival in 2021, early 2018, and mid-2015.</b></p><p>At present, after market adjustment, the yield difference between Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 stocks and bonds has dropped back to around positive standard deviation.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1f5bb20f7f0706bf18d1bc22f79a62a7\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"564\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>With the same logic, in the figure above, we use the 10Y Treasury Bond yield minus the CSI 500 Dividend ratio to measure the cost performance of the CSI 500.</p><p>In the past six months, the yield difference between stocks and bonds of CSI 500 has fluctuated around the average. Compared with CSI 300, the risk-return ratio is relatively higher. This is also our proposal to open up a new battlefield for excess returns, appropriately sink to some mid-cap growth stocks, and find a data support for potential core assets in the future.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2b0dcc0d356ca840dfb781e853701d28\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"672\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>In terms of stages, domestic credit will shrink in 2021, and global interest rates will be easy to rise but difficult to fall, which is relatively unfavorable to companies with excessively high long-term premiums. The molecular end (performance) is more important at present. Equity incentives can effectively lock in the molecular end, that is, lock in the high growth rate in the next 1-3 years, which can become the key to opening up a new battlefield of excess returns.</p><p><b>So, what kind of equity incentives can bring excess returns?</b></p><p>(1) Buying time: the earlier you buy, the better: plan announcement date > shareholders' meeting announcement date > first implementation announcement date;</p><p>(2) Holding time: The long holding period still has good excess returns, which is operable.</p><p>(3) Termination of equity incentive plan: valuation killing will occur in the short term, and investors should avoid risks</p><p>(4) Industry: Growth industries prefer equity incentives, and the rate of return within the industry is obviously differentiated.</p><p>(5) Market value: Equity incentives are mainly based on small market capitalization below 20 billion yuan, but companies with more than 20 billion yuan are the key to obtaining excess returns in equity incentives, which can be used as reserves for excess returns.</p><p>(6) Incentive intensity (\"quantity\"): If the total number of incentives accounts for more than 3% of the total equity at that time, a higher excess rate of return can be obtained, but excessively high incentive ratio will actually lower the rate of return, and 3%-5% is a better range.</p><p>(7) Incentive intensity (\"price\"): different grant discount rates of equity incentive have no obvious impact on excess return;</p><p>(8) Exercise conditions: it is required that the growth rate of net profit changes from negative to positive to obtain higher excess returns; In addition, the stricter the requirements for net profit growth, the greater the excess rate of return; However, the required growth rate is too high, and the excess returns will fall instead.</p><p>(9) Incentive method: options (exercisable stocks come from fixed increase) > fixed increase of stocks > buying circulating A shares > 5%.</p><p>(10) Among the nature of enterprises, private and foreign capital are higher.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d976f8634c2bc265bec3704386dbc361\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"797\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><b>① In 1973-1979, in the valuation stage of Nifty 50, the companies with positive profit catalysis were resistant to the decline, or companies with smaller bubbles in the valuation stage; For companies with serious valuation overdraft after continuous rises, the risk of killing valuation is greater.</b></p><p>During the valuation killing stage from 1973 to 1979, among the 30 companies with relatively complete data in the table below, the average valuation decline was 72.4%, the average profit growth rate was 16.3%, the average stock price increase was-15.9%, and the average excess return was-7.3%.</p><p><b>During this period, there are two main types of companies whose valuations have declined less:</b></p><p>First, resource or oil service companies that benefit from rising oil prices, such as Halliburton and Lubrizol;</p><p>Second, in the early 1970s, companies with relatively small valuations, such as Bristol-Myers, Pfizer, General Electric, etc., had peak valuations of only about 30 times.</p><p><b>On the contrary, there are two main types of companies with large declines:</b></p><p>First, companies with low profit growth rates, such as the three companies with the largest declines (Avon, Sears, and Kodak), all have significantly lower profit growth rates than the average level;</p><p>Second, companies that greatly raised their valuations in the early 1970s, such as Disney, McDonald's, and Coca-Cola, had valuations of 84 times, 85 times, and 48 times respectively at the end of 1972, and then ranked first in the valuation range in 1973-79., although profits at this time continue to grow at a high rate.</p><p><b>② For the core assets of A-shares, there is a high probability that the magnitude and time of killing the valuation will not replicate the situation of the US stock market at that time.</b>One of the most critical factors is that the current world does not have the 10-year stagflation environment triggered by the oil crisis in the 1970s and the Middle East war (US Treasury yields rose from 5% to 14% at that time).</p><p><b>③ It is worth learning that after the valuation of A-share core assets is significantly adjusted, there may be a high probability of differentiation. According to the differentiation of Beautiful 50, it is expected that among the A-share core assets, two types of companies may perform relatively better in the future. First, some high-end manufacturing leaders, such as new energy, new materials, machinery, etc., whose molecular performance can rise substantially. Second, the leader whose valuation has been relatively small in the past two years.</b></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/52e9beb18b1352b8eeb1a3c33e82d48f\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"417\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>As shown in the figure above, we sort and grade all companies in the U.S. stock market according to their market value at the beginning of each year, and calculate the median increase of this group of companies in that year.</p><p>It can be found that in the 75-79 years when the U.S. stock market Nifty 50 digested the valuation, the mid-cap stocks (groups 4-8) in the U.S. stock market outperformed for about 5 consecutive years. It is also the longest time that U.S. mid-cap stocks have continued to outperform in the past 50 years.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/cf85edeaa49138a6eab9620e0a8bf2b9\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"535\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><b>Starting in the late 1970s, the Nifty 50 really entered an ultra-long bull market driven by continued earnings.</b>From January 1970 to June 2020, the Nifty 50 rose 207 times, and the S&P 500 rose 33 times.</p><p><b>The high-yield stage mainly came from 1980 to 2010. During these 30 years, the Nifty 50 only underperformed the S&P 500 in 4 years (83, 88, 98, 99).</b>Wherein:</p><p>In the 1980s, the Nifty 50 rose 457%, the S&P 500 rose 226%, and the excess return was 231%;</p><p>In the 1990s, the Nifty 50 rose 484%, the S&P 500 rose 316%, and the excess return was 168%;</p><p>In the 2000s, the Nifty 50 rose 75%, the S&P 500 rose-24%, and the excess return was 99%.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1e95904166e8318bfbd7673350395e64\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"569\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><b>Profitability (high ROE) is the key to the long-term victory of the Nifty 50.</b>The ROE of the Nifty 50 has been higher than the S&P 500 index for a long time. This state lasted until around 2010, and the excess ROE performance after that weakened. The reason is that the Nifty 50 after 2010 is no longer the Nifty 50 in the 1970s. The excess returns of the Nifty 50 relative to the S&P 500 also began to weaken after this point in time.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b785d55bc1ff6f847fc3e15f84369869\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"394\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/351384a507cc74721f7ea457cf708888\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"396\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0131d925243edaa1de75cba97a4ba4a6\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"705\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/06b9dd807a2d8bc206747fb85165cf87\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"704\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><b>Since the 1980s and 1990s, the pace of global expansion of U.S. stock companies has been the key to supporting the profits and stock prices of leading industries in various U.S. stocks to a higher level.</b>Global expansion not only brings new growth space for leading companies in these industries, but also drives the cyclical weakening of the industry, and even increases the profitability center.</p><p>For A-share companies, the globalization of mid-to-high-end manufacturing industry is more likely, especially the suspension of production caused by the continuous overseas epidemic in 2020, which is the beginning of a round of globalization of China's manufacturing industry.</p><p>The increase in overseas penetration rate can partially offset the volatility of domestic demand, making the company's ROE more stable and ultimately corresponding to a higher valuation level.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/55165042d7231e56c1a7a214792b5441\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"500\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f6297d9a42e89f28b2fded875cc8913a\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"297\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>As shown in the above model, the three-stage sustainable growth rate has a great impact on valuation.</p><p>In other words, among the core assets, we should select companies with relatively higher sustainable growth rates as the long-term layout track.</p><p>For most consumer goods companies, after entering a steady state, the \"volume\" has basically remained stable, and the growth mainly comes from the increase in \"price\".</p><p>Therefore, the strength of the price increase ability corresponds to the level of sustainable growth rate.</p><p>Regarding the price increase ability of different consumer goods, we can first look at a set of data:</p><p>From the long-term growth rate of CPI and CPI segments in various countries, not all consumer industry CPI can outperform the overall CPI. Generally speaking, the long-term growth rate of consumer staples is higher than the overall CPI, while the long-term growth rate of optional consumer goods is lower than the overall CPI. overall CPI. This is consistent with the logic that consumer staples outperform optional consumer goods in the U.S. stock market for a long time. Consumer staples are prone to brand and customer loyalty accumulation, and if there is an industry with a trend of industry concentration, the growth rate can be added.</p><p>In fact, the service industry has the best price performance, especially education and medical care. The characteristic of these two types of consumer goods is that they have to be completed manually. Therefore, when it comes to labor costs, they all need to raise wages, and at the same time, they are basically It is a necessary product, and the price increase ability of the corresponding product side is also stronger.</p><p>Durable consumer goods, mostly manufacturing, will continue to undergo technological progress, cost reduction, machine substitution, etc., so product prices will fall instead of rising.</p><p><b>In the end, from the perspective of price increase ability, the ranking of sustainable growth rate is likely to be: education, medical care > alcohol, food > furniture, home appliances, automobiles, clothing, and electronic products.</b></p><p><b>Risk warning:</b>The risk of US Treasury yields continuing to rise, the inflection point of global liquidity, the risk of performance not meeting expectations, etc.</p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> source：<a href=\"https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s/A60ZUPvXYOBZPZI5twF41g\">分析师徐彪</a></p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4a10424fe3b1f29e8d28fdc0dc474e86","relate_stocks":{"399001":"深证成指","399006":"创业板指","000001.SH":"上证指数"},"source_url":"https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s/A60ZUPvXYOBZPZI5twF41g","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1107778493","content_text":"摘要：关注具备制造业的全球化能力的企业，以及长期涨价能力最强的消费品。核心结论：春节过后，A股市场变化较大，近期路演过程中，针对不同问题，投资者也存在很多分歧，本篇报告，我们展示10组路演中关注度较高的图表，并更新我们的最新策略观点。① 首先，关于业绩披露规则，有一点需要补充说明，为贯彻落实新《证券法》信息披露相关要求，3月19日晚，证监会发布修订后的《上市公司信息披露管理办法》（以下简称《信披办法》），自2021年5月1日起施行。其中一个最大变化是：上市公司应当披露的定期报告包括年度报告、中期报告。相对前一个版本，去掉了季度报告。也就是说2021年一季报还要继续按照前期要求披露，但是未来季度报告的披露规则，还需以沪深交易所的后续安排为准。② 其次，今年的业绩披露期，对于A股市场可能是至关重要的。由于2021年国内进入信用收缩周期（债务总额增速回落）、全球利率和通胀预期易上难下，因此A股市场很难再像2019和2020年一样大幅提估值，于是业绩就成为推动股价的核心因素。即A股市场在业绩披露期可能迎来分子端的催化，但是在业绩空窗期，则面临分母端的不确定性。因此，4月上旬，一季报预告密集披露期临近，为A股反弹提供了窗口期。③ 最后，关于一季报的结构方面，两类公司出现超预期的可能性最高：一是顺周期中涨价的板块；二是自身产业周期上升的板块（军工上游、生产线设备、新能源车等）。除此之外，对于开辟超额收益的新战场，一季报也至关重要，很多中盘成长股，需要业绩的连续验证，才能形成凝聚力。在这一方面，我们的选股策略模型，正好可以派上用场，尤其是【景气成长】模型，我们设置了包括盈利能力、盈利趋势、资产质量、财务健康程度在内的20个基本面因子，在每个财报期之后，对所有A股进行基本面筛选，并回测筛选逻辑的有效性。上图中，我们用10Y国债收益率减沪深300股息率来衡量沪深300的性价比，这一指标在极致位置上，对市场的指引意义相对比较强。一旦股债收益差接近负两倍标准差，市场随后都会有反弹，比如典型的2020年3月下旬。详见当时我们的报告《股债收益差十年最低，外围巨震，但A股风险可控》。相反，当股债收益差接近正两倍标准差的时候，市场随后都会产生一定风险，比如典型的2021年春节前、2018年初、2015年中等。目前，经过市场调整，沪深300股债收益差回落到正一倍标准差附近。同样逻辑，上图中，我们用10Y国债收益率减中证500股息率来衡量中证500的性价比。过去半年，中证500的股债收益差围绕均值上下波动，与沪深300相比，风险收益比相对更高一些，这也是我们提出开辟超额收益新战场，适当下沉到一些中盘成长股、寻找未来潜在核心资产的一个数据方面的支撑。阶段性来说，2021年国内信用收缩、全球利率易上难下，对长久期溢价过高的公司相对不利，分子端（业绩）在当前更为重要。而股权激励能够有效的锁定分子端，即锁定未来1-3年的高增速，能够成为开辟超额收益的新战场的关键。那么，什么样的股权激励更能够带来超额收益？（1）买入时点：越早买入越好：预案公告日>股东大会公告日>首次实施公告日；（2）持有时间：持有期限较长仍有不错的超额收益，具备可操作性。（3）股权激励方案终止：短期会出现杀估值现象，投资者应规避风险（4）行业：成长行业更加青睐股权激励，行业内收益率分化明显。（5）市值：股权激励主要以200亿以下的小市值为主，但200亿以上的公司才是股权激励中，获得超额收益率的关键，可以作为超额收益的储备。（6）激励强度（“量”）：激励总数占当时总股本比例在3%以上能够获得更高的超额收益率，但过高的激励占比反而会拉低收益率，3%-5%是一个比较好的区间。（7）激励强度（“价”）：股权激励的不同授股折价率对超额收益率的影响不明显；（8）行权条件：要求净利润增速由负转正能够获得较高的超额收益；此外，对净利润增速的要求越严苛，超额收益率越大；但要求增速过高，超额收益反而回落。（9）激励方式：期权（行权股票来源于定增）>股票定增>买入流通A股>5%。（10）企业性质中，民营和外资较高。① 73-79年，漂亮50杀估值阶段，抗跌的是盈利有正向催化的公司，或拔估值阶段泡沫较小的公司；而对于连续上涨之后估值透支严重的公司，杀估值风险较大。73-79年的杀估值阶段，在下表数据较全的30家公司中，估值平均跌幅为72.4%，平均盈利增速为16.3%，平均股价涨幅为-15.9%，平均超额收益为-7.3%。在这段时间，估值跌幅较少的公司，主要有两类：一是受益于油价上涨的资源或油服公司，如哈里伯顿、路博润等；二是70年代初期拔估值幅度较小的公司，如百时美、辉瑞、通用电气等估值峰值仅达到30倍左右。相反，跌幅较大的公司，主要也有两类：一是盈利增速较低的公司，比如跌幅最大的3家公司（雅芳、西尔斯、柯达）盈利增速均大幅低于平均水平；二是70年代初期大幅拔估值的公司，比如迪士尼、麦当劳、可口可乐，72年底的估值分别达到了84倍、85倍、48倍，之后在73-79年的杀估值幅度也居前，尽管此时的盈利仍持续高增长。② 对于A股的核心资产来说，杀估值的幅度和时间，大概率不会复制美股漂亮50当时的情况，其中一个最关键的因素在于，当前全球不具备70年代石油危机、中东战争引发的10年滞胀的环境（彼时美债利率从5%上升到14%）。③ 值得借鉴的是，在A股核心资产估值显著调整之后，大概率也可能要出现分化的过程，根据漂亮50分化的情况，预计A股核心资产中，两类公司未来可能表现相对更好，一是分子端业绩能够大幅上升的一些高端制造龙头比如新能源、新材料、机械等。二是，过去两年提估值幅度较小的龙头。如上图所示，我们将美股的所有公司按照每年年初的市值进行排序和分档，并计算这一组公司在当年涨幅的中位数。可以发现，在美股漂亮50消化估值的75-79年中，美股的中盘股（4-8组）出现了连续5年左右的跑赢。也是近50年来，美股中盘股持续跑赢时间最长的一次。从70年代后期开始，漂亮50真正进入了盈利持续推动的超长牛市。从1970年1月到2020年6月，漂亮50上涨了207倍，标普500上涨了33倍。高收益阶段主要来自1980-2010年，这30年期间，漂亮50仅在4个年份（83、88、98、99）跑输标普500。其中：80年代，漂亮50上涨457%，标普500上涨226%，超额收益231%；90年代，漂亮50上涨484%，标普500上涨316%，超额收益168%；00年代，漂亮50上涨75%，标普500上涨-24%，超额收益99%。盈利能力（高ROE）是漂亮50长期取胜的关键。漂亮50的ROE长期高于标普500指数，这一状态持续至2010年左右，之后的ROE超额表现弱化，原因在于2010年之后的漂亮50，已非70年代的漂亮50。而漂亮50相对标普500的超额收益也在这个时间点之后开始走弱。80-90年代以来，美股公司全球化扩张的步伐，是支撑美股各行业龙头盈利和股价再上台阶的关键。全球化扩张不只带来这些行业龙头公司新的成长空间，而且也驱使行业周期性弱化，甚至能获得盈利能力中枢的抬升。对于A股公司而言，中高端制造业的全球化可能性更大，尤其是2020年海外疫情持续导致的停工停产，是一轮中国制造业全球化国运的开始。海外渗透率的提升，可以部分抵消国内需求的波动性，使得公司ROE具备更强的稳定性，最终对应更高的估值水平。如上图模型所示，三阶段的永续增长率，对估值的影响非常大。换句话说，我们应该在核心资产中，挑选永续增长率相对更高的公司作为长期布局的赛道。对于大部分消费品公司而言，进入稳态状态后，“量”已经基本维持稳定，增长主要来自与“价”的上涨。于是涨价能力的强弱，就对应了永续增长率的高低。关于不同消费品的涨价能力，我们可以先看一组数据：从各国的CPI及CPI细分领域的长期增长率，并非所有的消费行业CPI都能跑赢整体CPI，一般来说，必需消费品长期增速高于整体CPI，而可选消费品的长期增速低于整体CPI。这与美股市场上必需消费品长期跑赢可选消费品的逻辑是一致的，必需消费品容易有品牌和客户忠诚度积累，且若有行业集中趋势的行业，则增长率还能有加成。事实上，价格表现最好的是服务业，尤其是教育和医疗，这两类消费品的特点是不得不由人工来完成，因此，涉及到了人力成本，都是要涨工资的，同时也基本属于必须品，对应产品端的涨价能力也更强。而耐用消费品，大多是制造类的，会不断发生技术进步、成本下降、机器换人等等，因此产品价格不涨反降。最终，涨价能力的角度，永续增长率的排序大概率是：教育、医疗＞酒类、食品＞家具、家电、汽车、服装、电子产品。风险提示：美债利率继续上行的风险，全球流动性拐点，业绩不达预期风险等。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"399001":0.9,"399006":0.9,"000001.SH":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":689,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0}],"lives":[]}
