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2023-03-20

$Tiger Brokers(TIGR)$

2022-05-27

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2022-08-02

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Income Obsession Sweeps Across Asset Classes as Stocks Swerve

2022-07-15

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2022-05-29

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$250 Billion in "Rebalancing" Inflows Could Rescue Stocks By the End of June, JPMorgan Says

2022-09-16

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The Latest NIO Stock Surge Will Be Short-Lived

2022-09-01

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Charlie Munger Predicted "Considerable Trouble" For Markets: SPY Implications

2022-08-07

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Palantir Q2: Investors Beware

2022-07-23

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2022-07-12

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and to 1.2% for next year, he said.</li><li>Labor markets are still extremely tight and job gains are robust, Powell said. &#34;The labor market continues to be out of balance,&#34; he added.</li><li>&#34;Price pressures remain evident&#34; across a broad range of goods and services, though energy prices have declined.</li><li>&#34;At some point&#34; a slower pace of rate increases will be appropriate, and the FOMC will make their rate decision on meeting-by-meeting basis, Powell added.</li></ul><ul><li>In Powell&#39;s estimation, the Fed has just moved its rate to the &#34;very lowest&#34; level of restrictive. Commodity prices look like they may have peaked, but factors such as the war in Ukraine still cloud the outlook.</li><li>&#34;My main message has not changed at all since Jackson Hole,&#34; he said.</li><li>&#34;There&#39;s only modest evidence that the labor market has cooled. In light of the high inflation that we&#39;re seeing, we think that we&#39;ll need to bring the federal funds rate to a restrictive level and keep it there for some time.&#34; The central bankers will need to see &#34;clear evidence&#34; that inflation is moving toward its 2% objective before slowing the rate hike pace.</li><li>The expectation that rates will need to stay restrictive for longer will hurt the chances for a soft landing, he said.</li><li>He would not predict the size of the rate increase at the next meeting. &#34;The median for year-end suggests another 125 basis points,&#34; but another group of policymakers saw 100 bp of increases by year-end, Powell said. &#34;We&#39;re committed to a restrictive level and getting there pretty quickly.&#34;</li><li>As for its balance sheet shrinking plan, the Fed isn&#39;t considering a decision on selling mortgage-backed securities &#34;anytime soon,&#34; the Fed chair said.</li><li>The rate hikes are having an effect on interest-sensitive spending (such as housing). However, consumers still have some savings and the states &#34;are flush with cash,&#34; he said. &#34;There&#39;s good reason to think it will be a reasonably strong economy,&#34; Powell said.</li><li>A &#34;difficult correction&#34; in the housing market should result in a more normal price growth path, compared with the red-hot housing market earlier this year.</li><li>The CME FedWatchtool now puts a 69.1% probability of a 75 bps rate hike at the next FOMC meeting in November, and then a 65.7% chance for a 50 bps increase in December.</li><li>Powell ends the press conference, saying the path the Fed takes &#34;will be enough&#34; to bring inflation down.</li></ul></body></html>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Fed Is Purposefully Hiking Rates in Commitment to Tame Inflation: Powell's Press Conference</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nFed Is Purposefully Hiking Rates in Commitment to Tame Inflation: Powell's Press Conference\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/1079075236\">\n\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">Tiger Newspress </p>\n<p class=\"h-time\">2022-09-22 02:37</p>\n</div>\n\n</a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<html><head></head><body><ul><li>The Federal Reserve is raising rates &#34;purposefully&#34; to reach levels to bring down inflation, Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell said in the press conference after the central bank raised its key rate by 75 basis points for a third straight meeting.</li><li>The Federal Open Market Committee&#39;s median expectation for GDP growth was trimmed to 0.2% this year and to 1.2% for next year, he said.</li><li>Labor markets are still extremely tight and job gains are robust, Powell said. &#34;The labor market continues to be out of balance,&#34; he added.</li><li>&#34;Price pressures remain evident&#34; across a broad range of goods and services, though energy prices have declined.</li><li>&#34;At some point&#34; a slower pace of rate increases will be appropriate, and the FOMC will make their rate decision on meeting-by-meeting basis, Powell added.</li></ul><ul><li>In Powell&#39;s estimation, the Fed has just moved its rate to the &#34;very lowest&#34; level of restrictive. Commodity prices look like they may have peaked, but factors such as the war in Ukraine still cloud the outlook.</li><li>&#34;My main message has not changed at all since Jackson Hole,&#34; he said.</li><li>&#34;There&#39;s only modest evidence that the labor market has cooled. In light of the high inflation that we&#39;re seeing, we think that we&#39;ll need to bring the federal funds rate to a restrictive level and keep it there for some time.&#34; The central bankers will need to see &#34;clear evidence&#34; that inflation is moving toward its 2% objective before slowing the rate hike pace.</li><li>The expectation that rates will need to stay restrictive for longer will hurt the chances for a soft landing, he said.</li><li>He would not predict the size of the rate increase at the next meeting. &#34;The median for year-end suggests another 125 basis points,&#34; but another group of policymakers saw 100 bp of increases by year-end, Powell said. &#34;We&#39;re committed to a restrictive level and getting there pretty quickly.&#34;</li><li>As for its balance sheet shrinking plan, the Fed isn&#39;t considering a decision on selling mortgage-backed securities &#34;anytime soon,&#34; the Fed chair said.</li><li>The rate hikes are having an effect on interest-sensitive spending (such as housing). However, consumers still have some savings and the states &#34;are flush with cash,&#34; he said. &#34;There&#39;s good reason to think it will be a reasonably strong economy,&#34; Powell said.</li><li>A &#34;difficult correction&#34; in the housing market should result in a more normal price growth path, compared with the red-hot housing market earlier this year.</li><li>The CME FedWatchtool now puts a 69.1% probability of a 75 bps rate hike at the next FOMC meeting in November, and then a 65.7% chance for a 50 bps increase in December.</li><li>Powell ends the press conference, saying the path the Fed takes &#34;will be enough&#34; to bring inflation down.</li></ul></body></html>\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{},"source_url":"","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1109921858","content_text":"The Federal Reserve is raising rates \"purposefully\" to reach levels to bring down inflation, Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell said in the press conference after the central bank raised its key rate by 75 basis points for a third straight meeting.The Federal Open Market Committee's median expectation for GDP growth was trimmed to 0.2% this year and to 1.2% for next year, he said.Labor markets are still extremely tight and job gains are robust, Powell said. \"The labor market continues to be out of balance,\" he added.\"Price pressures remain evident\" across a broad range of goods and services, though energy prices have declined.\"At some point\" a slower pace of rate increases will be appropriate, and the FOMC will make their rate decision on meeting-by-meeting basis, Powell added.In Powell's estimation, the Fed has just moved its rate to the \"very lowest\" level of restrictive. Commodity prices look like they may have peaked, but factors such as the war in Ukraine still cloud the outlook.\"My main message has not changed at all since Jackson Hole,\" he said.\"There's only modest evidence that the labor market has cooled. In light of the high inflation that we're seeing, we think that we'll need to bring the federal funds rate to a restrictive level and keep it there for some time.\" The central bankers will need to see \"clear evidence\" that inflation is moving toward its 2% objective before slowing the rate hike pace.The expectation that rates will need to stay restrictive for longer will hurt the chances for a soft landing, he said.He would not predict the size of the rate increase at the next meeting. \"The median for year-end suggests another 125 basis points,\" but another group of policymakers saw 100 bp of increases by year-end, Powell said. \"We're committed to a restrictive level and getting there pretty quickly.\"As for its balance sheet shrinking plan, the Fed isn't considering a decision on selling mortgage-backed securities \"anytime soon,\" the Fed chair said.The rate hikes are having an effect on interest-sensitive spending (such as housing). However, consumers still have some savings and the states \"are flush with cash,\" he said. \"There's good reason to think it will be a reasonably strong economy,\" Powell said.A \"difficult correction\" in the housing market should result in a more normal price growth path, compared with the red-hot housing market earlier this year.The CME FedWatchtool now puts a 69.1% probability of a 75 bps rate hike at the next FOMC meeting in November, and then a 65.7% chance for a 50 bps increase in December.Powell ends the press conference, saying the path the Fed takes \"will be enough\" to bring inflation down.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2045,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9919065939,"gmtCreate":1663714344821,"gmtModify":1676537319185,"author":{"id":"3558432070989796","authorId":"3558432070989796","name":"SFLIM","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/aaf11b13eed459a5545feddb4299b7ee","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3558432070989796","idStr":"3558432070989796"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Ok","listText":"Ok","text":"Ok","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":4,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9919065939","repostId":"2268391042","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"2268391042","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1663663883,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/2268391042?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2022-09-20 16:51","market":"us","language":"en","title":"VOO: Fresh Lows Could Be Ahead","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2268391042","media":"Seeking Alpha","summary":"SummaryVanguard S&P 500 ETF is not offering a buying opportunity after the latest selloff.The downtr","content":"<html><head></head><body><h2>Summary</h2><ul><li>Vanguard S&amp;P 500 ETF is not offering a buying opportunity after the latest selloff.</li><li>The downtrend is likely to accelerate in the coming months due to the looming recession and tightening monetary policies.</li><li>Investor sentiment and valuations would be impacted by a large percentage of downside earnings revisions.</li><li>The historical data also suggests that going long ahead of a recession is not a prudent strategy.</li></ul><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5056e902bdaef835ab02d4d345d0153e\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"720\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/><span>ronniechua</span></p><p>The S&amp;P 500 is on the edge of a bear market once again as the recovery from mid-June to mid-August proved to be no more than a bear market rally, in my opinion. In the last thirty days, the indexplunged around 9% and is currently only a few percentage points higher than its mid-June lows. I believe the broader market index, as well as related ETFs such as the Vanguard S&amp;P 500 ETF (NYSEARCA:VOO), are likely to hit new lows in the coming months, and the bear trend might last longer than the recent routes. What’s more concerning is that global GDP growth and corporate earnings are projected to fall further in the next year. In addition, historical trends suggest that the market has a lot more room to fall. Therefore, buying the latest dip doesn’t look like a prudent strategy to me.</p><h2>Demand Destruction Pushing Economies into Recession</h2><h2><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/dc3c3e1aa15446ec437054d90c22084f\" tg-width=\"1236\" tg-height=\"689\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/><span>True_insights (Bloomberg)</span></p></h2><p>Economic and monetary policy directly affect stock market performance. Historically, the US stock market has faced challenges when economic numbers drop, but bull markets usually occur when monetary conditions are easy and economic growth is stable. There have been 10 official U.S. recessions since 1957 and the stock market has lost 29% on average after each recession. In economics, high prices or limited supply guides demand destruction. A number of factors are contributing to demand destruction at the moment, including high inflation, tightening monetary policies, the Russian war, and the Chinese economic slowdown.</p><p>Rating agencies and the World Bank are cutting their GDP growth forecasts for 2022 and 2023 due to the negative impact of demand destruction on business activities. Fitch, for instance, slashed its 2022 global growth forecast for the third time in nine months to 2.4%, down by 0.5% from its June forecast. For 2023, it expects the global GDP to grow by only 1.7%. It also projects the eurozone and UK will enter recession in the December quarter of 2022, and that the recession will last longer. Fitch also predicts a mild recession in the United States in mid-2023.</p><h2>Earnings Revisions</h2><p>As it appears that economies will fall into recession from the December quarter, analysts and companies are cutting earnings expectations faster. For example, FedEx (FDX), one of the world&#39;s largest air freight and logistics companies, missed earnings expectations for the first quarter by a greater margin. Additionally, the company expects the situation to worsen in the next quarter.</p><blockquote>Global volumes declined as macroeconomic trends significantly worsened later in the quarter, both internationally and in the U.S. We are swiftly addressing these headwinds, but given the speed at which conditions shifted, Q1 results are below our expectations, CEO Raj Subramaniam said.</blockquote><p>It&#39;s evident from FedEx&#39;s earnings miss that the market environment is worse than many had predicted. In the quarters ahead, industrial, materials, and real estate sectors could face massive earnings reductions as a slower economic activity directly impacts their revenue generation capacities. This trend is also reflected in Seeking Alpha&#39;s poor quant grades for a large number of key industrial stocks. In contrast, mega-cap tech stocks including Apple (AAPL), Microsoft (MSFT), Alphabet (GOOG) (GOOGL), Amazon (AMZN), Tesla (TSLA), Meta Platforms (META), and Nvidia (NVDA) have seen an average earningsestimatedrop of 21.4% over the last 90 days, while projections for 2023 have declined 11.3%. In the case of VOO, the majority of its top 10 stock holdings, including Apple, Microsoft, Alphabet, and Amazon have seen a large number of downside earnings revisions for 2022 and 2023.</p><h2>Valuations</h2><p>The S&amp;P 500’s forward price-to-earnings ratio eased to around 16.9 at present, down from 1.84% in the previous quarter and 8.76% in the year-ago period. When stocks hit their 2022 low in mid-June, the forward PE was around 16.</p><p>S&amp;P 500&#39;s forward PE ratio could fall below its June lows if the bear trend intensifies in the coming months. Historically, PE ratios have fallen between 13 and 14 during recessions since 1990, with the exception of 2008 when the PE fell below 10. Further, a significant amount of earnings revisions in the coming quarters would put additional pressure on valuations. Any rally in stocks without earnings growth would make them expensive, and it appears that investors might not be willing to pay premiums ahead of a recession and tough monetary conditions.</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6e6a297993692762ac59f1dc1b1ea631\" tg-width=\"602\" tg-height=\"362\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/><span>yardeni.com (8 tech mega-caps forward PE)</span></p><p>There is also a big difference between the forward earnings ratio of the S&amp;P 500 and that of mega-cap tech stocks. Tech giants like Apple, Microsoft, Alphabet, Amazon, Tesla, Meta Platforms, Netflix (NFLX), and Nvidia account for almost a quarter of the overall weight of the S&amp;P 500 index and almost half of the S&amp;P 500 growth index. These mega-cap tech stocks have on average a forward 12-month price-to-earnings ratio of around 25. These stocks received either a D or F Seeking Alpha quant grade on valuations. S&amp;P 500 might face steep losses in the days ahead if sentiments turn against paying a premium for big tech stocks due to recession and earnings revisions.</p><h2>Capitulation Phase</h2><p>After hot CPI data and increasing prospects for recession, it appears that investors are selling stakes in fear of more losses, a situation known as a capitulation phase. In general, capitulation occurs during bear markets.</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7939879a7b810f27e55c49b90c33d95b\" tg-width=\"592\" tg-height=\"402\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/><span>Coatue Management (Investor Presentation)</span></p><p>Coatue Management&#39;s investor presentation also hinted that the markets are in a capitulation phase where the entire stock market will fall before reaching its bottom. Philippe Laffont&#39;s investment firm held 80 percent of its portfolio in cash as of June 2022 following a large number of sales in the first half. Like the dot-com bear market, the firm says non-profitable tech stocks fell in the first phase of 2021. In the second phase, both non-profitable and profitable tech stocks plunged in the first half of 2022. In the third phase, which is called the capitulation phase, the firm predicts the entire public sector is likely to face a downtrend and this phase is likely to last longer than the first two.</p><h2>Conclusion</h2><p>It is not the right time to buy ETFs such as VOO that track the performance of the S&amp;P 500 index in my opinion. As several indicators are sending bear market warnings, the ETF is likely to suffer more losses in the months ahead. FedEx&#39;s poor results and lower outlook have raised concerns over significant earnings revisions for the full year and 2023. Sentiment would also be impacted by the worsening economic situation, as major economic regions are likely to enter recession in the fourth quarter. Furthermore, lofty valuations and historical trends indicate downside movement.</p></body></html>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>VOO: Fresh Lows Could Be Ahead</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nVOO: Fresh Lows Could Be Ahead\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2022-09-20 16:51 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://seekingalpha.com/article/4541903-voo-fresh-lows-could-be-ahead><strong>Seeking Alpha</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>SummaryVanguard S&P 500 ETF is not offering a buying opportunity after the latest selloff.The downtrend is likely to accelerate in the coming months due to the looming recession and tightening ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4541903-voo-fresh-lows-could-be-ahead\">Source Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"VOO":"Vanguard标普500ETF"},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4541903-voo-fresh-lows-could-be-ahead","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2268391042","content_text":"SummaryVanguard S&P 500 ETF is not offering a buying opportunity after the latest selloff.The downtrend is likely to accelerate in the coming months due to the looming recession and tightening monetary policies.Investor sentiment and valuations would be impacted by a large percentage of downside earnings revisions.The historical data also suggests that going long ahead of a recession is not a prudent strategy.ronniechuaThe S&P 500 is on the edge of a bear market once again as the recovery from mid-June to mid-August proved to be no more than a bear market rally, in my opinion. In the last thirty days, the indexplunged around 9% and is currently only a few percentage points higher than its mid-June lows. I believe the broader market index, as well as related ETFs such as the Vanguard S&P 500 ETF (NYSEARCA:VOO), are likely to hit new lows in the coming months, and the bear trend might last longer than the recent routes. What’s more concerning is that global GDP growth and corporate earnings are projected to fall further in the next year. In addition, historical trends suggest that the market has a lot more room to fall. Therefore, buying the latest dip doesn’t look like a prudent strategy to me.Demand Destruction Pushing Economies into RecessionTrue_insights (Bloomberg)Economic and monetary policy directly affect stock market performance. Historically, the US stock market has faced challenges when economic numbers drop, but bull markets usually occur when monetary conditions are easy and economic growth is stable. There have been 10 official U.S. recessions since 1957 and the stock market has lost 29% on average after each recession. In economics, high prices or limited supply guides demand destruction. A number of factors are contributing to demand destruction at the moment, including high inflation, tightening monetary policies, the Russian war, and the Chinese economic slowdown.Rating agencies and the World Bank are cutting their GDP growth forecasts for 2022 and 2023 due to the negative impact of demand destruction on business activities. Fitch, for instance, slashed its 2022 global growth forecast for the third time in nine months to 2.4%, down by 0.5% from its June forecast. For 2023, it expects the global GDP to grow by only 1.7%. It also projects the eurozone and UK will enter recession in the December quarter of 2022, and that the recession will last longer. Fitch also predicts a mild recession in the United States in mid-2023.Earnings RevisionsAs it appears that economies will fall into recession from the December quarter, analysts and companies are cutting earnings expectations faster. For example, FedEx (FDX), one of the world's largest air freight and logistics companies, missed earnings expectations for the first quarter by a greater margin. Additionally, the company expects the situation to worsen in the next quarter.Global volumes declined as macroeconomic trends significantly worsened later in the quarter, both internationally and in the U.S. We are swiftly addressing these headwinds, but given the speed at which conditions shifted, Q1 results are below our expectations, CEO Raj Subramaniam said.It's evident from FedEx's earnings miss that the market environment is worse than many had predicted. In the quarters ahead, industrial, materials, and real estate sectors could face massive earnings reductions as a slower economic activity directly impacts their revenue generation capacities. This trend is also reflected in Seeking Alpha's poor quant grades for a large number of key industrial stocks. In contrast, mega-cap tech stocks including Apple (AAPL), Microsoft (MSFT), Alphabet (GOOG) (GOOGL), Amazon (AMZN), Tesla (TSLA), Meta Platforms (META), and Nvidia (NVDA) have seen an average earningsestimatedrop of 21.4% over the last 90 days, while projections for 2023 have declined 11.3%. In the case of VOO, the majority of its top 10 stock holdings, including Apple, Microsoft, Alphabet, and Amazon have seen a large number of downside earnings revisions for 2022 and 2023.ValuationsThe S&P 500’s forward price-to-earnings ratio eased to around 16.9 at present, down from 1.84% in the previous quarter and 8.76% in the year-ago period. When stocks hit their 2022 low in mid-June, the forward PE was around 16.S&P 500's forward PE ratio could fall below its June lows if the bear trend intensifies in the coming months. Historically, PE ratios have fallen between 13 and 14 during recessions since 1990, with the exception of 2008 when the PE fell below 10. Further, a significant amount of earnings revisions in the coming quarters would put additional pressure on valuations. Any rally in stocks without earnings growth would make them expensive, and it appears that investors might not be willing to pay premiums ahead of a recession and tough monetary conditions.yardeni.com (8 tech mega-caps forward PE)There is also a big difference between the forward earnings ratio of the S&P 500 and that of mega-cap tech stocks. Tech giants like Apple, Microsoft, Alphabet, Amazon, Tesla, Meta Platforms, Netflix (NFLX), and Nvidia account for almost a quarter of the overall weight of the S&P 500 index and almost half of the S&P 500 growth index. These mega-cap tech stocks have on average a forward 12-month price-to-earnings ratio of around 25. These stocks received either a D or F Seeking Alpha quant grade on valuations. S&P 500 might face steep losses in the days ahead if sentiments turn against paying a premium for big tech stocks due to recession and earnings revisions.Capitulation PhaseAfter hot CPI data and increasing prospects for recession, it appears that investors are selling stakes in fear of more losses, a situation known as a capitulation phase. In general, capitulation occurs during bear markets.Coatue Management (Investor Presentation)Coatue Management's investor presentation also hinted that the markets are in a capitulation phase where the entire stock market will fall before reaching its bottom. Philippe Laffont's investment firm held 80 percent of its portfolio in cash as of June 2022 following a large number of sales in the first half. Like the dot-com bear market, the firm says non-profitable tech stocks fell in the first phase of 2021. In the second phase, both non-profitable and profitable tech stocks plunged in the first half of 2022. In the third phase, which is called the capitulation phase, the firm predicts the entire public sector is likely to face a downtrend and this phase is likely to last longer than the first two.ConclusionIt is not the right time to buy ETFs such as VOO that track the performance of the S&P 500 index in my opinion. As several indicators are sending bear market warnings, the ETF is likely to suffer more losses in the months ahead. FedEx's poor results and lower outlook have raised concerns over significant earnings revisions for the full year and 2023. Sentiment would also be impacted by the worsening economic situation, as major economic regions are likely to enter recession in the fourth quarter. Furthermore, lofty valuations and historical trends indicate downside movement.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"VOO":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2089,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9910626889,"gmtCreate":1663627807741,"gmtModify":1676537301911,"author":{"id":"3558432070989796","authorId":"3558432070989796","name":"SFLIM","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/aaf11b13eed459a5545feddb4299b7ee","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3558432070989796","idStr":"3558432070989796"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Ok","listText":"Ok","text":"Ok","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9910626889","repostId":"1158905038","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1158905038","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1663591588,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1158905038?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2022-09-19 20:46","market":"us","language":"en","title":"QQQ: Summer Glory To Fade Off In Fall Obscurity?","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1158905038","media":"Seeking Alpha","summary":"SummaryIn this note, we will discuss recent price action in Invesco's QQQ ETF, along with the factor","content":"<html><head></head><body><p>Summary</p><ul><li>In this note, we will discuss recent price action in Invesco&#39;s QQQ ETF, along with the factors driving this action.</li><li>Furthermore, I share a fresh outlook for the QQQ now that my call for a retest of June lows is looking nailed on to materialize.</li><li>I rate QQQ &#39;Neutral&#39; at $290.</li></ul><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/53444cd062deb64dcc2310c4eee26ce0\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"637\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/><span>Dilok Klaisataporn</span></p><p>Introduction: Where Do We Stand?</p><p>Invesco&#39;s QQQ (NASDAQ:QQQ) is an exchange-traded fund that tracks the tech-heavy Nasdaq-100 index. After a scintillating summer rally off of June lows, tech stocks and equity markets, in general, have resumed their downtrend. The lasttime I wrote on QQQ was back in early June, and here&#39;s what I said at the time:</p><blockquote>In the near term, I see QQQ running up to the $320-330 range, but over the medium term, we are likely to decline to $250-260. These targets are based on fundamental, quantitative, and technical analysis shared in today&#39;s note. With a near-term upside of 3-8% and a medium-term downside of ~20-25%, I&#39;m not too fond of QQQ&#39;s risk/reward here. Therefore, I am neutral on QQQ at current levels.</blockquote><blockquote><i>Source:Is QQQ A Buy Or Sell During The Dip? It&#39;s Complicated</i></blockquote><p>After initially dipping to ~$270 by mid-June, the QQQ went on a smashing rally to reach the $335 level by mid-August. On 15th August 2022, I wrote the following in my newsletter:</p><blockquote>A series of higher highs and higher lows seem to reflect a strong bullish reversal; however, below-average trading volumes are unnerving. We are close to a resistance zone in the $335-345 range, and on the weekly chart, QQQ is testing the top end of the falling wedge pattern we have traded in for the last nine months. A rejection from this zone could quite easily trigger a retest of June lows.</blockquote><blockquote><i>Source:TQI Weekly - Issue #5: A New Bull Market Or Just Another Bear Market Rally</i></blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/159a6c2ed14077cf70319e8af4b8ccfb\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"466\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/><span>QQQ&#39;s chart as of mid-August (WeBull Desktop)</span></p><p>Now, I am not sharing this history to showcase some extraordinary ability to predict the stock market. Instead, I strongly believe that nobody knows where the market is going in the near term. All we can do is analyze the fundamental, quantitative, and technical data to get a better understanding of what could happen in the market. And then orient our investing operations to benefit from this probabilistic understanding of the market environment.</p><p>Sticky inflation, rising interest rates, hawkish monetary policy, and slowing economic activity do not portend strong equity market returns for the foreseeable future. On Tuesday, the CPI inflation print came in hotter-than-expected at 8.3%, surprising market participants betting on a drop off in inflation. However, on the ground, inflation is slowing down [e.g., prices at the gas station are down significantly in recent weeks, home prices are declining, used auto prices are way off their peak, and there are many other instances]. Now, the lagging rents data (~30-40% of CPI) is set to make the headline inflation numbers look bad for some time to come.</p><p>While renowned investors like Ray Dalio and Jeff Gundlach called out the rising probability of a recession during this week (and predicted another 20-25% decline in S&amp;P500), the Fed seems to be focusing on countering inflation - moving full steam ahead with its quantitative tightening program. The expectations for the Fed&#39;s September meeting (on 21st and 22nd) are now pointing toward a 75-100 bps hike in the federal funds rate, and the bond market seems to be pricing in more hawkishness from Fed chair Jay Powell, as treasury rates continue to shift up rapidly.</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b6d4fb12a3da252cd53a6b5e96f4a380\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"460\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/><span>YCharts</span></p><p>Legendary investor Warren Buffett&#39;s quote comes to mind:</p><blockquote>Interest rates are to asset prices what gravity is to the apple. When there are low interest rates, there is a very low gravitational pull on asset prices. The most important item over time in valuation is obviously interest rates.</blockquote><p>As interest rates have shot up in 2022, equities have been getting re-rated lower, and after a 28% YTD decline, the P/E ratio for Invesco&#39;s QQQ ETF (QQQ) [an ETF tracking Nasdaq-100 index] has come down to ~22-23x. Looking at historical data from the past ten years, the QQQ seems like a no-brainer buy at around 20x earnings.</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5a4da36ad357f2be93d1e18fbcb5edbc\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"328\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/><span>GuruFocus</span></p><p>However, persistently-high inflation, rising interest rates, and slowing economic activity (amidst waning consumer confidence) are significant threats to corporate earnings and the valuation multiples attached to these earnings. Honestly, earnings may be the next shoe to drop in this market cycle, and Q3 &amp; Q4 could bring a lot more volatility to the equity markets.</p><p>A Look At Some Recent Market Action</p><p>Broad market indices [S&amp;P500 (SPX), Nasdaq-100 (NDX), and Dow Jones Industrial Average (DIA)] got off to a strong start in September; however, volatility returned to Wall Street last week. On Tuesday, stocks took a tumble (SPY down ~4%, QQQ down ~5%) as inflation data came in hotter-than-expected - raising expectations of a 75-100 bps rate hike by the Fed at its September meeting and even more hawkishness from the Fed. After a couple of benign days on Wednesday and Thursday, the sell-off resumed on Friday, with all major indices closing in the red. With the Fed tightening into a slowing economy, the fears of an economic recession are growing.</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f0576618c7710bd346a4a0f9d24e86a0\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"439\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/><span>YCharts</span></p><p>At my recently launched marketplace service, The Quantamental Investor, we saw our GARP &amp; Buyback-Dividend portfolios experience a negative ROIC of -1.42% and -1.54% over the last two weeks, with a big chunk of weakness coming from a sell-off in large to mega-cap tech stocks. Interestingly, the performance of small to mid-cap (higher growth) companies was superior to that of their larger counterparts. As of the close on Friday, TQI&#39;s Moonshot Growth portfolio had an ROIC of +3.76%, which was better than iShares Russell 1000 Growth ETF&#39;s (IWF) return of -1.86%.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8806662e5af57a7b54a1a3e62a249693\" tg-width=\"905\" tg-height=\"264\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>At TQI, our playbook for this bear market is -</p><blockquote>Build long positions slowly and manage risk proactively.</blockquote><p>If equity prices continue to fall over the coming weeks and months, then our dollar cost averaging plan will prove to be an effective risk management strategy. At TQI, we started our core portfolios with a 50% cash position, which we intend to deploy in a staggered way over the next ten months.</p><p>Where Is The Market Headed Next?</p><p>I don&#39;t know where the market will be a week, a month, or a quarter from now. However, considering valuations and technical charts, I think a retest of QQQ&#39;s June lows of ~$270 is very likely in the near term.</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a46914a4f61975720b899626da4c4047\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"478\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/><span>WeBull Desktop</span></p><p>If we fail to hold these levels, QQQ may be in for a decline to the $215-235 range. And I say this because the tech generals (largest components) in QQQ - Apple and Microsoft - have a potential downside of ~30-40% each. Read my latest articles on this subject to understand my reasoning for this call:</p><ul><li>Microsoft: Insider Selling, Frothy Valuation, Worsening Fundamentals, And More [September 15th, 2022]</li><li>Apple Vs. Microsoft Vs. Treasury Bonds: The Battle Of Safe Havens Round-2 [August 25th, 2022]</li><li>Apple Vs. Microsoft Vs. Treasury Bonds: The Battle Of Safe Havens [April 20th, 2022]</li></ul><p>We are getting closer to the Q3 (fall) earnings season, and that&#39;s when we could see a resolution on either side of the ~$270 level. With rising interest rates, the P/E trading multiples on QQQ are unlikely to expand in the foreseeable future (unless the earnings drop off, in which case the price will likely follow). Overall, I am not too fond of QQQ&#39;s medium-term risk-reward from current levels.</p><p>Final Thoughts</p><p>The Fed is hawkish as ever, and its balance sheet roll-off has just started. At some point, the Fed will break something in the economy, and then we will see yet another pivot. However, investors may have to undergo a lot more pain in equity markets before this happens. As the old adage goes -</p><blockquote><b>Don&#39;t Fight The Fed.</b></blockquote><p>And we are abiding by this rule in all of TQI&#39;s core portfolios by running our investing operations with ~50% in cash and deploying this cash slowly in a staggered fashion over a long period of time.</p><p>Over the near term, the QQQ is likely headed to June lows of ~$270, which is a downside of -7%. With the near and medium-term risk/reward being unattractive, I continue to rate QQQ &#39;Neutral&#39; at ~$290.</p><p>While broad market [QQQ] is not enticing, there are loads of individual stocks offering asymmetric risk/reward opportunities. Being selective, contrarian, and right could yield spectacular returns for investors buying during periods of heightened volatility like the one we are experiencing today. I&#39;ll leave you with this thought - &#34;Invest actively and manage risk proactively.&#34;</p><p><b>Key Takeaway:</b> I am neutral on QQQ at current levels.</p><p>Thank you for reading, and happy investing. Please feel free to share any questions, thoughts, or concerns in the comments section below.</p><p><i>This article was written by Ahan Vashi, </i><i>for reference only.</i></p></body></html>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>QQQ: Summer Glory To Fade Off In Fall Obscurity?</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nQQQ: Summer Glory To Fade Off In Fall Obscurity?\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2022-09-19 20:46 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://seekingalpha.com/article/4541722-qqq-summer-glory-fade-off-fall-obscurity><strong>Seeking Alpha</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>SummaryIn this note, we will discuss recent price action in Invesco's QQQ ETF, along with the factors driving this action.Furthermore, I share a fresh outlook for the QQQ now that my call for a retest...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4541722-qqq-summer-glory-fade-off-fall-obscurity\">Source Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"NDX":"纳斯达克100指数","QQQ":"纳指100ETF",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite"},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4541722-qqq-summer-glory-fade-off-fall-obscurity","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1158905038","content_text":"SummaryIn this note, we will discuss recent price action in Invesco's QQQ ETF, along with the factors driving this action.Furthermore, I share a fresh outlook for the QQQ now that my call for a retest of June lows is looking nailed on to materialize.I rate QQQ 'Neutral' at $290.Dilok KlaisatapornIntroduction: Where Do We Stand?Invesco's QQQ (NASDAQ:QQQ) is an exchange-traded fund that tracks the tech-heavy Nasdaq-100 index. After a scintillating summer rally off of June lows, tech stocks and equity markets, in general, have resumed their downtrend. The lasttime I wrote on QQQ was back in early June, and here's what I said at the time:In the near term, I see QQQ running up to the $320-330 range, but over the medium term, we are likely to decline to $250-260. These targets are based on fundamental, quantitative, and technical analysis shared in today's note. With a near-term upside of 3-8% and a medium-term downside of ~20-25%, I'm not too fond of QQQ's risk/reward here. Therefore, I am neutral on QQQ at current levels.Source:Is QQQ A Buy Or Sell During The Dip? It's ComplicatedAfter initially dipping to ~$270 by mid-June, the QQQ went on a smashing rally to reach the $335 level by mid-August. On 15th August 2022, I wrote the following in my newsletter:A series of higher highs and higher lows seem to reflect a strong bullish reversal; however, below-average trading volumes are unnerving. We are close to a resistance zone in the $335-345 range, and on the weekly chart, QQQ is testing the top end of the falling wedge pattern we have traded in for the last nine months. A rejection from this zone could quite easily trigger a retest of June lows.Source:TQI Weekly - Issue #5: A New Bull Market Or Just Another Bear Market RallyQQQ's chart as of mid-August (WeBull Desktop)Now, I am not sharing this history to showcase some extraordinary ability to predict the stock market. Instead, I strongly believe that nobody knows where the market is going in the near term. All we can do is analyze the fundamental, quantitative, and technical data to get a better understanding of what could happen in the market. And then orient our investing operations to benefit from this probabilistic understanding of the market environment.Sticky inflation, rising interest rates, hawkish monetary policy, and slowing economic activity do not portend strong equity market returns for the foreseeable future. On Tuesday, the CPI inflation print came in hotter-than-expected at 8.3%, surprising market participants betting on a drop off in inflation. However, on the ground, inflation is slowing down [e.g., prices at the gas station are down significantly in recent weeks, home prices are declining, used auto prices are way off their peak, and there are many other instances]. Now, the lagging rents data (~30-40% of CPI) is set to make the headline inflation numbers look bad for some time to come.While renowned investors like Ray Dalio and Jeff Gundlach called out the rising probability of a recession during this week (and predicted another 20-25% decline in S&P500), the Fed seems to be focusing on countering inflation - moving full steam ahead with its quantitative tightening program. The expectations for the Fed's September meeting (on 21st and 22nd) are now pointing toward a 75-100 bps hike in the federal funds rate, and the bond market seems to be pricing in more hawkishness from Fed chair Jay Powell, as treasury rates continue to shift up rapidly.YChartsLegendary investor Warren Buffett's quote comes to mind:Interest rates are to asset prices what gravity is to the apple. When there are low interest rates, there is a very low gravitational pull on asset prices. The most important item over time in valuation is obviously interest rates.As interest rates have shot up in 2022, equities have been getting re-rated lower, and after a 28% YTD decline, the P/E ratio for Invesco's QQQ ETF (QQQ) [an ETF tracking Nasdaq-100 index] has come down to ~22-23x. Looking at historical data from the past ten years, the QQQ seems like a no-brainer buy at around 20x earnings.GuruFocusHowever, persistently-high inflation, rising interest rates, and slowing economic activity (amidst waning consumer confidence) are significant threats to corporate earnings and the valuation multiples attached to these earnings. Honestly, earnings may be the next shoe to drop in this market cycle, and Q3 & Q4 could bring a lot more volatility to the equity markets.A Look At Some Recent Market ActionBroad market indices [S&P500 (SPX), Nasdaq-100 (NDX), and Dow Jones Industrial Average (DIA)] got off to a strong start in September; however, volatility returned to Wall Street last week. On Tuesday, stocks took a tumble (SPY down ~4%, QQQ down ~5%) as inflation data came in hotter-than-expected - raising expectations of a 75-100 bps rate hike by the Fed at its September meeting and even more hawkishness from the Fed. After a couple of benign days on Wednesday and Thursday, the sell-off resumed on Friday, with all major indices closing in the red. With the Fed tightening into a slowing economy, the fears of an economic recession are growing.YChartsAt my recently launched marketplace service, The Quantamental Investor, we saw our GARP & Buyback-Dividend portfolios experience a negative ROIC of -1.42% and -1.54% over the last two weeks, with a big chunk of weakness coming from a sell-off in large to mega-cap tech stocks. Interestingly, the performance of small to mid-cap (higher growth) companies was superior to that of their larger counterparts. As of the close on Friday, TQI's Moonshot Growth portfolio had an ROIC of +3.76%, which was better than iShares Russell 1000 Growth ETF's (IWF) return of -1.86%.At TQI, our playbook for this bear market is -Build long positions slowly and manage risk proactively.If equity prices continue to fall over the coming weeks and months, then our dollar cost averaging plan will prove to be an effective risk management strategy. At TQI, we started our core portfolios with a 50% cash position, which we intend to deploy in a staggered way over the next ten months.Where Is The Market Headed Next?I don't know where the market will be a week, a month, or a quarter from now. However, considering valuations and technical charts, I think a retest of QQQ's June lows of ~$270 is very likely in the near term.WeBull DesktopIf we fail to hold these levels, QQQ may be in for a decline to the $215-235 range. And I say this because the tech generals (largest components) in QQQ - Apple and Microsoft - have a potential downside of ~30-40% each. Read my latest articles on this subject to understand my reasoning for this call:Microsoft: Insider Selling, Frothy Valuation, Worsening Fundamentals, And More [September 15th, 2022]Apple Vs. Microsoft Vs. Treasury Bonds: The Battle Of Safe Havens Round-2 [August 25th, 2022]Apple Vs. Microsoft Vs. Treasury Bonds: The Battle Of Safe Havens [April 20th, 2022]We are getting closer to the Q3 (fall) earnings season, and that's when we could see a resolution on either side of the ~$270 level. With rising interest rates, the P/E trading multiples on QQQ are unlikely to expand in the foreseeable future (unless the earnings drop off, in which case the price will likely follow). Overall, I am not too fond of QQQ's medium-term risk-reward from current levels.Final ThoughtsThe Fed is hawkish as ever, and its balance sheet roll-off has just started. At some point, the Fed will break something in the economy, and then we will see yet another pivot. However, investors may have to undergo a lot more pain in equity markets before this happens. As the old adage goes -Don't Fight The Fed.And we are abiding by this rule in all of TQI's core portfolios by running our investing operations with ~50% in cash and deploying this cash slowly in a staggered fashion over a long period of time.Over the near term, the QQQ is likely headed to June lows of ~$270, which is a downside of -7%. With the near and medium-term risk/reward being unattractive, I continue to rate QQQ 'Neutral' at ~$290.While broad market [QQQ] is not enticing, there are loads of individual stocks offering asymmetric risk/reward opportunities. Being selective, contrarian, and right could yield spectacular returns for investors buying during periods of heightened volatility like the one we are experiencing today. I'll leave you with this thought - \"Invest actively and manage risk proactively.\"Key Takeaway: I am neutral on QQQ at current levels.Thank you for reading, and happy investing. Please feel free to share any questions, thoughts, or concerns in the comments section below.This article was written by Ahan Vashi, for reference only.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{".IXIC":0.9,"QQQ":0.9,"NDX":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1343,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9910063416,"gmtCreate":1663541360136,"gmtModify":1676537284101,"author":{"id":"3558432070989796","authorId":"3558432070989796","name":"SFLIM","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/aaf11b13eed459a5545feddb4299b7ee","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3558432070989796","idStr":"3558432070989796"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Ok","listText":"Ok","text":"Ok","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":4,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9910063416","repostId":"2268672370","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"2268672370","kind":"highlight","pubTimestamp":1663460267,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/2268672370?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2022-09-18 08:17","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Can the Fed Tame Inflation Without Further Crushing the Stock Market? What Investors Need to Know","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2268672370","media":"MarketWatch","summary":"Investors should brace for more volatility with policy makers expected to deliver another jumbo rate","content":"<html><head></head><body><p>Investors should brace for more volatility with policy makers expected to deliver another jumbo rate hike</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5b4166c0ac7b0bdf7caa1837ef618a67\" tg-width=\"700\" tg-height=\"487\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/><span>Fed Chair Jerome Powell says bringing down inflation will cause pain for households and businesses.</span></p><p>The Federal Reserve isn’t trying to slam the stock market as it rapidly raises interest rates in its bid to slow inflation still running red hot — but investors need to be prepared for more pain and volatility because policy makers aren’t going to be cowed by a deepening selloff, investors and strategists said.</p><p>“I don’t think they’re necessarily trying to drive inflation down by destroying stock prices or bond prices, but it is having that effect.” said Tim Courtney, chief investment officer at Exencial Wealth Advisors, in an interview.</p><p>U.S. stocks fell sharply in the past week after hopes for a pronounced cooling in inflation were dashed by a hotter-than-expected August inflation reading. The data cemented expectations among fed-funds futures traders for a rate hike of at least 75 basis points when the Fed concludes its policy meeting on Sept. 21, with some traders and analysts looking for an increase of 100 basis points, or a full percentage point.</p><p>The Dow Jones Industrial Average logged a 4.1% weekly fall, while the S&amp;P 500 dropped 4.8% and the Nasdaq Composite suffered a 5.5% decline. The S&amp;P 500 ended Friday below the 3,900 level viewed as an important area of technical support, with some chart watchers eyeing the potential for a test of the large-cap benchmark’s 2022 low at 3,666.77 set on June 16.</p><p>A profit warning from global shipping giant and economic bellwether FedEx Corp. further stoked recession fears, contributing to stock-market losses on Friday.</p><p>Treasurys also fell, with yield on the 2-year Treasury note soaring to a nearly 15-year high above 3.85% on expectations the Fed will continue pushing rates higher in coming months. Yields rise as prices fall.</p><p>Investors are operating in an environment where the central bank’s need to rein in stubborn inflation is widely seen having eliminated the notion of a figurative “Fed put” on the stock market.</p><p>The concept of a Fed put has been around since at least the October 1987 stock-market crash prompted the Alan Greenspan-led central bank to lower interest rates. An actual put option is a financial derivative that gives the holder the right but not the obligation to sell the underlying asset at a set level, known as the strike price, serving as an insurance policy against a market decline.</p><p>Some economists and analysts have even suggested the Fed should welcome or even aim for market losses, which could serve to tighten financial conditions as investors scale back spending.</p><p>William Dudley, the former president of the New York Fed, argued earlier this year that the central bank won’t get a handle on inflation that’s running near a 40-year high unless they make investors suffer. “It’s hard to know how much the Federal Reserve will need to do to get inflation under control,” wrote Dudley in a Bloomberg column in April. “But one thing is certain: to be effective, it’ll have to inflict more losses on stock and bond investors than it has so far.”</p><p>Some market participants aren’t convinced. Aoifinn Devitt, chief investment officer at Moneta,said the Fed likely sees stock-market volatility as a byproduct of its efforts to tighten monetary policy, not an objective.</p><p>“They recognize that stocks can be collateral damage in a tightening cycle,” but that doesn’t mean that stocks “have to collapse,” Devitt said.</p><p>The Fed, however, is prepared to tolerate seeing markets decline and the economy slow and even tip into recession as it focuses on taming inflation, she said.</p><p>The Federal Reserve held the fed funds target rate at a range of 0% to 0.25% between 2008 and 2015, as it dealt with the financial crisis and its aftermath. The Fed also cut rates to near zero again in March 2020 in response to the COVID-19 pandemic. With a rock-bottom interest rate, the Dow skyrocketed over 40%, while the large-cap index S&amp;P 500 jumped over 60% between March 2020 and December 2021, according to Dow Jones Market Data.</p><p>Investors got used to “the tailwind for over a decade with falling interest rates” while looking for the Fed to step in with its “put” should the going get rocky, said Courtney at Exencial Wealth Advisors.</p><p>“I think (now) the Fed message is ‘you’re not gonna get this tailwind anymore’,” Courtney told MarketWatch on Thursday. “I think markets can grow, but they’re gonna have to grow on their own because the markets are like a greenhouse where the temperatures have to be kept at a certain level all day and all night, and I think that’s the message that markets can and should grow on their own without the greenhouse effect.”</p><p>Meanwhile, the Fed’s aggressive stance means investors should be prepared for what may be a “few more daily stabs downward” that could eventually prove to be a “final big flush,” said Liz Young, head of investment strategy at SoFi, in a Thursday note.</p><p>“This may sound odd, but if that happens swiftly, meaning within the next couple months, that actually becomes the bull case in my view,” she said. “It could be a quick and painful drop, resulting in a renewed move higher later in the year that’s more durable, as inflation falls more notably.”</p></body></html>","source":"lsy1603348471595","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Can the Fed Tame Inflation Without Further Crushing the Stock Market? What Investors Need to Know</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nCan the Fed Tame Inflation Without Further Crushing the Stock Market? What Investors Need to Know\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2022-09-18 08:17 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://www.marketwatch.com/story/the-fed-isnt-trying-to-wreck-the-stock-market-as-it-wrestles-with-inflation-but-it-isnt-going-to-ride-to-the-rescue-11663366540?mod=home-page><strong>MarketWatch</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>Investors should brace for more volatility with policy makers expected to deliver another jumbo rate hikeFed Chair Jerome Powell says bringing down inflation will cause pain for households and ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://www.marketwatch.com/story/the-fed-isnt-trying-to-wreck-the-stock-market-as-it-wrestles-with-inflation-but-it-isnt-going-to-ride-to-the-rescue-11663366540?mod=home-page\">Source Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{".DJI":"道琼斯",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite"},"source_url":"https://www.marketwatch.com/story/the-fed-isnt-trying-to-wreck-the-stock-market-as-it-wrestles-with-inflation-but-it-isnt-going-to-ride-to-the-rescue-11663366540?mod=home-page","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2268672370","content_text":"Investors should brace for more volatility with policy makers expected to deliver another jumbo rate hikeFed Chair Jerome Powell says bringing down inflation will cause pain for households and businesses.The Federal Reserve isn’t trying to slam the stock market as it rapidly raises interest rates in its bid to slow inflation still running red hot — but investors need to be prepared for more pain and volatility because policy makers aren’t going to be cowed by a deepening selloff, investors and strategists said.“I don’t think they’re necessarily trying to drive inflation down by destroying stock prices or bond prices, but it is having that effect.” said Tim Courtney, chief investment officer at Exencial Wealth Advisors, in an interview.U.S. stocks fell sharply in the past week after hopes for a pronounced cooling in inflation were dashed by a hotter-than-expected August inflation reading. The data cemented expectations among fed-funds futures traders for a rate hike of at least 75 basis points when the Fed concludes its policy meeting on Sept. 21, with some traders and analysts looking for an increase of 100 basis points, or a full percentage point.The Dow Jones Industrial Average logged a 4.1% weekly fall, while the S&P 500 dropped 4.8% and the Nasdaq Composite suffered a 5.5% decline. The S&P 500 ended Friday below the 3,900 level viewed as an important area of technical support, with some chart watchers eyeing the potential for a test of the large-cap benchmark’s 2022 low at 3,666.77 set on June 16.A profit warning from global shipping giant and economic bellwether FedEx Corp. further stoked recession fears, contributing to stock-market losses on Friday.Treasurys also fell, with yield on the 2-year Treasury note soaring to a nearly 15-year high above 3.85% on expectations the Fed will continue pushing rates higher in coming months. Yields rise as prices fall.Investors are operating in an environment where the central bank’s need to rein in stubborn inflation is widely seen having eliminated the notion of a figurative “Fed put” on the stock market.The concept of a Fed put has been around since at least the October 1987 stock-market crash prompted the Alan Greenspan-led central bank to lower interest rates. An actual put option is a financial derivative that gives the holder the right but not the obligation to sell the underlying asset at a set level, known as the strike price, serving as an insurance policy against a market decline.Some economists and analysts have even suggested the Fed should welcome or even aim for market losses, which could serve to tighten financial conditions as investors scale back spending.William Dudley, the former president of the New York Fed, argued earlier this year that the central bank won’t get a handle on inflation that’s running near a 40-year high unless they make investors suffer. “It’s hard to know how much the Federal Reserve will need to do to get inflation under control,” wrote Dudley in a Bloomberg column in April. “But one thing is certain: to be effective, it’ll have to inflict more losses on stock and bond investors than it has so far.”Some market participants aren’t convinced. Aoifinn Devitt, chief investment officer at Moneta,said the Fed likely sees stock-market volatility as a byproduct of its efforts to tighten monetary policy, not an objective.“They recognize that stocks can be collateral damage in a tightening cycle,” but that doesn’t mean that stocks “have to collapse,” Devitt said.The Fed, however, is prepared to tolerate seeing markets decline and the economy slow and even tip into recession as it focuses on taming inflation, she said.The Federal Reserve held the fed funds target rate at a range of 0% to 0.25% between 2008 and 2015, as it dealt with the financial crisis and its aftermath. The Fed also cut rates to near zero again in March 2020 in response to the COVID-19 pandemic. With a rock-bottom interest rate, the Dow skyrocketed over 40%, while the large-cap index S&P 500 jumped over 60% between March 2020 and December 2021, according to Dow Jones Market Data.Investors got used to “the tailwind for over a decade with falling interest rates” while looking for the Fed to step in with its “put” should the going get rocky, said Courtney at Exencial Wealth Advisors.“I think (now) the Fed message is ‘you’re not gonna get this tailwind anymore’,” Courtney told MarketWatch on Thursday. “I think markets can grow, but they’re gonna have to grow on their own because the markets are like a greenhouse where the temperatures have to be kept at a certain level all day and all night, and I think that’s the message that markets can and should grow on their own without the greenhouse effect.”Meanwhile, the Fed’s aggressive stance means investors should be prepared for what may be a “few more daily stabs downward” that could eventually prove to be a “final big flush,” said Liz Young, head of investment strategy at SoFi, in a Thursday note.“This may sound odd, but if that happens swiftly, meaning within the next couple months, that actually becomes the bull case in my view,” she said. “It could be a quick and painful drop, resulting in a renewed move higher later in the year that’s more durable, as inflation falls more notably.”","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{".IXIC":0.9,".DJI":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1221,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9937394208,"gmtCreate":1663369107205,"gmtModify":1676537258531,"author":{"id":"3558432070989796","authorId":"3558432070989796","name":"SFLIM","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/aaf11b13eed459a5545feddb4299b7ee","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3558432070989796","idStr":"3558432070989796"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Ok","listText":"Ok","text":"Ok","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9937394208","repostId":"1186067066","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1542,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9934537663,"gmtCreate":1663282644152,"gmtModify":1676537241066,"author":{"id":"3558432070989796","authorId":"3558432070989796","name":"SFLIM","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/aaf11b13eed459a5545feddb4299b7ee","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3558432070989796","idStr":"3558432070989796"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Ok","listText":"Ok","text":"Ok","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":5,"commentSize":2,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9934537663","repostId":"1105919895","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1105919895","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1663255268,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1105919895?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2022-09-15 23:21","market":"us","language":"en","title":"The Latest NIO Stock Surge Will Be Short-Lived","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1105919895","media":"InvestorPlace","summary":"$Nio(NIO)$ stock back above $20 per share after analyst upgrades.Despite the renewed bullishness, shares in the China-based EV maker could easily give back these latest gains.Given the downside risk i","content":"<div>\n<p>Nio stock back above $20 per share after analyst upgrades.Despite the renewed bullishness, shares in the China-based EV maker could easily give back these latest gains.Given the downside risk if Nio ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://investorplace.com/2022/09/beware-the-latest-nio-stock-surge-will-be-short-lived/\">Source Link</a>\n\n</div>\n","source":"investorplace","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>The Latest NIO Stock Surge Will Be Short-Lived</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nThe Latest NIO Stock Surge Will Be Short-Lived\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2022-09-15 23:21 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://investorplace.com/2022/09/beware-the-latest-nio-stock-surge-will-be-short-lived/><strong>InvestorPlace</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>Nio stock back above $20 per share after analyst upgrades.Despite the renewed bullishness, shares in the China-based EV maker could easily give back these latest gains.Given the downside risk if Nio ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://investorplace.com/2022/09/beware-the-latest-nio-stock-surge-will-be-short-lived/\">Source Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"09866":"蔚来-SW","NIO":"蔚来","NIO.SI":"蔚来"},"source_url":"https://investorplace.com/2022/09/beware-the-latest-nio-stock-surge-will-be-short-lived/","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1105919895","content_text":"Nio stock back above $20 per share after analyst upgrades.Despite the renewed bullishness, shares in the China-based EV maker could easily give back these latest gains.Given the downside risk if Nio fails to deliver, you may not want to chase this recent rally.Despite mixed quarterly results, Nio (NYSE:NIO) stock has been on the rise following its Sept. 7 earnings release. The main factor behind this has been a spate of analyst upgrades for shares in the China-based electric vehicle (EV) maker.Confidence is rising again that the company’s production ramp-up will result in a big jump in sales for the rest of 2022, and going into 2023. Yet before you decide to jump in, and chase its recent rally, it’s hardly a lock that results in the coming quarter will live up to today’s elevated hopes.The ramp-up may still fail to produce results in line with expectations. This may cause the stock to give back recent gains. In the long term, Nio’s global expansion could also fall short of expectations. With high growth heavily priced in, it may not take much for today’s renewed bullishness to reverse.Why NIO Stock Has Surged Post-EarningsNio may have beat on revenue for the second quarter, but the results were hardly much to get excited about. As expected, China’s pandemic shutdowns continued to decelerate growth, on a year-over-year basis, and especially on a sequential basis.Even worse, the EV maker reported a higher-than-expected net loss. Compared to the prior year’s quarter, net losses per share were up 316.4%. Still, instead of reacting negatively to Q2 results, the market focused instead on the company’s outlook for Q3, which calls for a speeding back up of growth.This resulted in a slight uptick for NIO stock right after earnings but analyst upgrades sent shares soaring. As InvestorPlace’s Eddie Pan reported Sep 12, two analysts (Deutsche Bank’s Edison Yu, and BofA’s Ming-Hsun Lee) have reiterated their “buy” ratings, and have upped their price targets.Both analysts are bullish deliveries will re-accelerate considerably during Q4. This is due to a combination of the production ramp-up, plus Nio’s launch of new vehicle models. Yet while the situation may be improving, it may not be to the extent implied by the stock’s latest spike.How Its Latest Uptick Could ReverseAs buzz returns to NIO stock, it may seem that now’s the time to buy, ahead of a continued comeback. Unfortunately, there’s a lot to suggest that its latest surge may be short-lived in nature. With its move back above $20 per share, the market has now priced in a possible growth re-acceleration as a near-certainty.For the stock to keep moving higher, or at the very least avoid moving lower, Nio needs to both hit its own Q3 deliveries projection, plus hit Q4 numbers in line with the sell side’s expectations. Hitting its Q3 target may be attainable. Its monthly delivery numbers since June have come in above 10,000. Q4, though, may be a taller order.In order to meet Edison Yu’s 2022 estimate, Nio needs to deliver 57,000 vehicles between October and December. That’s nearly double projected Q3 deliveries.With increased production, new models, and Chinese government incentives, this may seem like a cinch. However, other factors, like China’s economic slowdown, could somewhat counter these positives.In turn, causing delivery numbers for the months ahead to fall short of expectations. Even if it’s a near miss, it may cause the stock to give back its recent gains.The Verdict on NIO StockNio stock earns a D rating in my Portfolio Grader. Beyond pulling back in the short term, shares could also keep performing poorly in the coming years. Long-term bulls believe high growth will continue. Even as growth in its home market returns, they are confident international expansion will keep it in high-growth mode.But only time will tell whether its first big expansion overseas (in Europe) proves successful. It may face greater competition in the China market. In Europe, it faces not just market leader Tesla (NASDAQ:TSLA), but competition from incumbent European luxury brands as well.Failure in Europe may result in it scrapping its North American expansion plans. Without global expansion, it will be difficult for Nio to sustain, much less grow, its current valuation.Given the downside risk of it failing to deliver in the coming quarter, you may not want to chase the recent NIO stock rally.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"NIO":0.9,"09866":0.9,"NIO.SI":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1597,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9934304763,"gmtCreate":1663195931352,"gmtModify":1676537222333,"author":{"id":"3558432070989796","authorId":"3558432070989796","name":"SFLIM","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/aaf11b13eed459a5545feddb4299b7ee","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3558432070989796","idStr":"3558432070989796"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Ok","listText":"Ok","text":"Ok","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":7,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9934304763","repostId":"1137608568","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1137608568","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1663168187,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1137608568?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2022-09-14 23:09","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Leveraged ETFs Added to Stock Chaos With $15.5 Billion Selling","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1137608568","media":"Bloomberg","summary":"Nomura’s McElligott says fund rebalancing compounded selloffResearch shows these complex products am","content":"<div>\n<p>Nomura’s McElligott says fund rebalancing compounded selloffResearch shows these complex products amplify intraday movesIn Tuesday’stumultuous trading sessionwas a pattern market watchers have seen ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2022-09-14/leveraged-etfs-added-to-stock-chaos-with-15-5-billion-selling\">Source Link</a>\n\n</div>\n","source":"lsy1584095487587","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Leveraged ETFs Added to Stock Chaos With $15.5 Billion Selling</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; 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overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nLeveraged ETFs Added to Stock Chaos With $15.5 Billion Selling\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2022-09-14 23:09 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2022-09-14/leveraged-etfs-added-to-stock-chaos-with-15-5-billion-selling><strong>Bloomberg</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>Nomura’s McElligott says fund rebalancing compounded selloffResearch shows these complex products amplify intraday movesIn Tuesday’stumultuous trading sessionwas a pattern market watchers have seen ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2022-09-14/leveraged-etfs-added-to-stock-chaos-with-15-5-billion-selling\">Source Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"TQQQ":"纳指三倍做多ETF","SQQQ":"纳指三倍做空ETF"},"source_url":"https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2022-09-14/leveraged-etfs-added-to-stock-chaos-with-15-5-billion-selling","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1137608568","content_text":"Nomura’s McElligott says fund rebalancing compounded selloffResearch shows these complex products amplify intraday movesIn Tuesday’stumultuous trading sessionwas a pattern market watchers have seen time and again this year: A bad day for stocks gets worse, right around the close. Suspicion is growing that a breed of complex but increasingly popular ETF may be helping fuel the trend.With the main equity gauges all down heavily on the day, leveraged exchange-traded funds -- which use options to amplify returns, usually of major indexes -- added around $15.5 billion of selling pressure to the rout, according to estimates from Nomura Holdings Inc. It’s likely a big reason why stocks took another dip in the last 30 minutes to close out a particular brutal trading session.While the propensity of options to lash the very stocks on which they’re based has becomea fact of lifeon Wall Street, doubts have remained about the capacity of leveraged vehicles to do the same.Yet trading volumes across these complex products have beenhistorically highall year. Certain peaks, such as in May and June, corresponded with instances of stocks extending their moves near the end of the session.“It’s absolutely real,” said Charlie McElligott, a cross-asset strategist at Nomura, referring to the ability of leveraged ETFs to spur broader moves across the equity ecosystem thanks to their rebalancing moves. He puts the boom in such products down to retail investors looking for big wins.“Day traders remain drunk on high intraday vol and continue to actively seek-out large price swings,” he said by email.Read more:Wall Street’s Risky ‘Razor Blade’ Trade Is Making a ComebackLeveraged products aim to amplify the performance of an underlying index or fund on a daily basis, meaning every day they must rebalance to return to their target leverage -- usually two- or three-times the underlying.That means in the last 30 minutes of trading every day, this cohort will add to buying pressure if the market is up, and to selling pressure if it’s down. Research publishedearlier this yearfound that, alongside options hedging, leveraged ETFs exert an “economically large” price pressure late in the day.The selling pressure at the close Tuesday was real, albeit far from dramatic relative to late-session swings seen earlier this year. The S&P 500 was about 4% lower with 30 minutes still to go. It ended 4.3% down. The Nasdaq 100 Index closed 5.5% having been down 5.3%. The Dow Jones Industrial Average went from a 3.7% drop to a 3.9% decline.Of course, there are plenty of reasons equity gyrations are extending late in the day with increased frequency. Endless inflation, surging bond yields and depleted liquidity are all spurring big momentum trends as well as intraday rallies and reversals across assets in this wild year. In this context, leveraged funds are just another factor for traders to consider.Yet systematic risks linked to the cohort prompted both the Securities and Exchange Commission and the Financial Industry Regulatory Authorityto announcepotential new rules for the products in the past year.Peter Tchir at Academy Securities is among those to note the uptick in leveraged ETF activity this year. In May he wrote that while such products are less powerful than in prior market dramas, they’re big enough to create “a limit down day” if they suffer outflows and rebalancing that accelerates broader selling.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"SQQQ":0.9,"TQQQ":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1302,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0}],"hots":[{"id":9943123839,"gmtCreate":1679294110822,"gmtModify":1679294115789,"author":{"id":"3558432070989796","authorId":"3558432070989796","name":"SFLIM","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/aaf11b13eed459a5545feddb4299b7ee","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3558432070989796","idStr":"3558432070989796"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/TIGR\">$Tiger Brokers(TIGR)$&nbsp;</a>","listText":"<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/TIGR\">$Tiger Brokers(TIGR)$&nbsp;</a>","text":"$Tiger Brokers(TIGR)$","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":2,"repostSize":5,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9943123839","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2712,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[{"author":{"id":"4140388454599512","authorId":"4140388454599512","name":"POHSWEEGUAN","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/84ca47540279e61404346b705a202bc0","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"authorIdStr":"4140388454599512","idStr":"4140388454599512"},"content":"$ProShares UltraShort Nasdaq Biotechnology(BIS)$ $SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust(SPY)$ $Occidental(OXY)$ $Cboe Volatility Index(VIX)$","text":"$ProShares UltraShort Nasdaq Biotechnology(BIS)$ $SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust(SPY)$ $Occidental(OXY)$ $Cboe Volatility Index(VIX)$","html":"$ProShares UltraShort Nasdaq Biotechnology(BIS)$ $SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust(SPY)$ $Occidental(OXY)$ $Cboe Volatility Index(VIX)$"},{"author":{"id":"4140388454599512","authorId":"4140388454599512","name":"POHSWEEGUAN","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/84ca47540279e61404346b705a202bc0","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"authorIdStr":"4140388454599512","idStr":"4140388454599512"},"content":"$LION OCBC HSTECH ETF S$(HST.SI)$ $LION OCBC HSTECH ETF S$(HST.SI)$ $LIONGLOBAL VIETNAM (USD) ACC(SG9999003503.USD)$","text":"$LION OCBC HSTECH ETF S$(HST.SI)$ $LION OCBC HSTECH ETF S$(HST.SI)$ $LIONGLOBAL VIETNAM (USD) ACC(SG9999003503.USD)$","html":"$LION OCBC HSTECH ETF S$(HST.SI)$ $LION OCBC HSTECH ETF S$(HST.SI)$ $LIONGLOBAL VIETNAM (USD) ACC(SG9999003503.USD)$"}],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9025016388,"gmtCreate":1653606092644,"gmtModify":1676535310694,"author":{"id":"3558432070989796","authorId":"3558432070989796","name":"SFLIM","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/aaf11b13eed459a5545feddb4299b7ee","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3558432070989796","idStr":"3558432070989796"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Ok","listText":"Ok","text":"Ok","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":7,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9025016388","repostId":"2238007654","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":833,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9908290201,"gmtCreate":1659394662903,"gmtModify":1705979760419,"author":{"id":"3558432070989796","authorId":"3558432070989796","name":"SFLIM","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/aaf11b13eed459a5545feddb4299b7ee","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3558432070989796","idStr":"3558432070989796"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Ok","listText":"Ok","text":"Ok","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":8,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9908290201","repostId":"1142849270","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1142849270","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1659367195,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1142849270?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2022-08-01 23:19","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Income Obsession Sweeps Across Asset Classes as Stocks Swerve","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1142849270","media":"Bloomberg","summary":"Dividend ETFs, fixed-income in demand amid equity volatilityFed pivot optimism fuels S&P 500 to best","content":"<div>\n<p>Dividend ETFs, fixed-income in demand amid equity volatilityFed pivot optimism fuels S&P 500 to best month since Nov 2020Behind the scenes of the latest rebound in stocks is a growing penchant for ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2022-07-30/income-obsession-sweeps-across-asset-classes-as-stocks-swerve?srnd=etfs\">Source Link</a>\n\n</div>\n","source":"lsy1584095487587","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Income Obsession Sweeps Across Asset Classes as Stocks Swerve</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; 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overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nIncome Obsession Sweeps Across Asset Classes as Stocks Swerve\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2022-08-01 23:19 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2022-07-30/income-obsession-sweeps-across-asset-classes-as-stocks-swerve?srnd=etfs><strong>Bloomberg</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>Dividend ETFs, fixed-income in demand amid equity volatilityFed pivot optimism fuels S&P 500 to best month since Nov 2020Behind the scenes of the latest rebound in stocks is a growing penchant for ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2022-07-30/income-obsession-sweeps-across-asset-classes-as-stocks-swerve?srnd=etfs\">Source Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"SCHD":"Schwab US Dividend Equity ETF"},"source_url":"https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2022-07-30/income-obsession-sweeps-across-asset-classes-as-stocks-swerve?srnd=etfs","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1142849270","content_text":"Dividend ETFs, fixed-income in demand amid equity volatilityFed pivot optimism fuels S&P 500 to best month since Nov 2020Behind the scenes of the latest rebound in stocks is a growing penchant for steady income streams as risk appetite runs hot and cold this year.In the $6.6 trillion exchange-traded fund arena, three dividend-focused ETFs rank among the top 10 in terms of equity inflows, according to data compiled by Bloomberg. The leader, the $36.5 billion Schwab US Dividend Equity ETF (ticker SCHD), has only posted five outflows this year.In the bond market, a mix of dip-buying behavior and growth concerns has sparked a fierce rally in Treasuries after benchmark yields hit multiyear highs last month. Billions have been funneled into corporate debt, with the S&P 500’s earnings yield holding the slimmest advantage to the average yield on blue-chip bonds in over a decade.The demand for coupon-clipping and reliable payouts casts a cautious light on the biggest two-day rally on record following the Federal Reserve’s rate decision. While Fed Chair Jerome Powell on Wednesday raised the potential for smaller rate hikes in the future, skeptics warn that still-high inflation will prevent a pivot and send the economy into a recession. Against that backdrop, it makes sense to play it safe, according to AlphaTrAI’s Max Gokhman.“The common denominator is defense,” said Gokhman, the firm’s chief investment officer. “High-quality corporate debt and buying stocks of companies with resilient balance sheets that can afford to pay a consistent dividend without worrying about excess leverage or margin pressure makes sense.”While the S&P 500 has soared 9% in July, on track for its biggest month of gains since November 2020, the index is still down 13% this year. Strong earnings have recently reassured traders, but uncertainty around a US recession and the path of the Fed’s rate hikes has kept traders on their toes.The back-and-forth nature of stocks has made bonds more appealing to some investors. The average yield on investment-grade bonds is currently 4.35% while the S&P 500 “pays out” about 4.8% in earnings. That’s close to the smallest gap since 2010.“Really where we’re starting to see opportunity is credit markets,” Russ Koesterich, portfolio manager of BlackRock’s global allocation fund, said on Bloomberg Television. “If we’re going to be in an environment where equity is going to be choppy over the next few months, one of the things you can do in your portfolio is you can add carry. You can add income.”Relatively high yields on investment-grade bonds means unlike much of the past decade, investors don’t even have to “dive down” in quality for worthwhile returns, according to Karissa McDonough of Community Bank Trust Services. That’s an attractive proposition with recession fears on high alert.“In corporate bonds, especially high-quality corporates, we’re seeing over 5% yields in some of those areas, which we haven’t seen in a long time,” McDonough, a fixed-income strategist, said in a Bloomberg Television interview. “That’s real money, real income and a good opportunity as long as you’re selective.”Similarly, a volatile stock market this year has pushed investors toward ETFs that somewhat guarantee a stable income. SCHD, which has garnered nearly $8.3 billion this year, is on track to surpass 2021’s record $9.8 billion haul. And more than $6.3 billion has flowed into the $11.5 billion JPMorgan Equity Premium Income ETF (JEPI) year-to-date, while the $46.1 billion Vanguard High Dividend Yield ETF (VYM) has taken in $6 billion in 2022 -- a record.ETF issuers have also been quick to try and capitalize on the trend. Launches and applications for income-oriented funds have multiplied this year, with strategies ranging from buying stocks of dividend-paying companies to selling call options on the S&P 500.But the hunt for income isn’t as simple as chasing the stocks with the highest payouts, according to Richard Bernstein Advisors’s Dan Suzuki, whose firm has been adding high-quality dividend stocks and long-duration bonds in recent weeks.“High-dividend payers are like high-yield bonds -- there’s a risk priced in that the dividend gets cut,” said Suzuki, the firm’s deputy chief investment officer. But longer-dated Treasuries and higher-quality dividend stocks are “both an attractive way to get defensive in the portfolio.”","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"SCHD":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1161,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9076866618,"gmtCreate":1657839183434,"gmtModify":1676536068060,"author":{"id":"3558432070989796","authorId":"3558432070989796","name":"SFLIM","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/aaf11b13eed459a5545feddb4299b7ee","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3558432070989796","idStr":"3558432070989796"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Ok","listText":"Ok","text":"Ok","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":8,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9076866618","repostId":"1158390926","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":773,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9024341095,"gmtCreate":1653805122417,"gmtModify":1676535345144,"author":{"id":"3558432070989796","authorId":"3558432070989796","name":"SFLIM","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/aaf11b13eed459a5545feddb4299b7ee","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3558432070989796","idStr":"3558432070989796"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Ok","listText":"Ok","text":"Ok","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":6,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9024341095","repostId":"2238585689","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"2238585689","kind":"highlight","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"Dow Jones publishes the world’s most trusted business news and financial information in a variety of media.","home_visible":0,"media_name":"Dow Jones","id":"106","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/150f88aa4d182df19190059f4a365e99"},"pubTimestamp":1653785130,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/2238585689?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2022-05-29 08:45","market":"us","language":"en","title":"$250 Billion in \"Rebalancing\" Inflows Could Rescue Stocks By the End of June, JPMorgan Says","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2238585689","media":"Dow Jones","summary":"While stock-market strategists at Bank of America and Morgan Stanley grow increasingly bearish, JPMo","content":"<html><head></head><body><p>While stock-market strategists at Bank of America and Morgan Stanley grow increasingly bearish, JPMorgan&#39;s equity-research department has churned up yet another bullish note for the bank&#39;s clients, advising them about the potential for massive month- and quarter-end rebalancing flows that could trigger a sustained rebound in stocks, putting even more distance between the U.S. benchmarks and the bear-market territory with which the S&amp;P 500 index was flirting late last week.</p><p>The team of JPMorgan equity quants, led by Nikolaos Panigirtzoglou, told the bank&#39;s clients that potentially more than $250 billion could flow into stocks by the end of June as American mutual funds and pension funds, along with foreign pensions and sovereign-wealth funds, &#34;rebalance&#34; by buying stocks and selling bonds to compensate for the latest drop in stocks.</p><p>In their latest report on equity flows and liquidity, the team said it expects between $34 billion and $56 billion of buying by &#34;balanced&#34; mutual funds (that is, funds that aim to maintain a 60/40 weighting of stocks to bonds in accordance with the principles of Modern Portfolio Theory).</p><p>But even larger than the mutual-fund universe is the world of defined-benefit pension funds, which Panigirtzoglou and his team believe could dump as much as $167 billion into U.S. stocks by the end of June.</p><p>These funds have an aggregate $7.5 trillion in assets under management, according to JPMorgan, and although pension funds tend to rebalance more slowly than mutual funds, the JPMorgan team suspects that they might be behind the eight-ball on rebalancing for April, leaving more room for buying as we head into the summer months.</p><p>Finally, the JPMorgan analysts expect an additional $40 billion of inflows from major foreign buyers like the Norges Bank (which controls Norway&#39;s massive sovereign-wealth fund), the Swiss National Bank (which maintains a large portfolio of U.S. equities) and Japanese pension funds.</p><p>All told, that&#39;s potentially more than $250 billion in inflows that could bolster Wall Street stocks. Since algorithmic traders like Commodity Trading Advisors often trade based on momentum, the initial move higher in equities caused by these inflows could potentially trigger a virtuous feedback loop that could see stocks erase more than half of their year-to-date losses -- at least, according to JPMorgan.</p><p>To be sure, the JPMorgan team had expected a significant bump in equity prices due to rebalancing back in March, a call that didn&#39;t quite come to pass, although global equities did stage a brief rally, registering a modest gain for the month, their only monthly gain so far this year.</p><p>JPMorgan&#39;s strategists, particularly Panigirtzoglou and his colleague Marko Kolanovic, have been some of the most stridently bullish voices on Wall Street so far this year. But as noted above, other Wall Street strategists are much more bearish: for example, Lisa Shalett, chief investment officer of Morgan Stanley Wealth Management, said in a note to clients published Monday that downward earnings revisions could cause stocks to shed another 5% to 10% of their value.</p></body></html>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>$250 Billion in \"Rebalancing\" Inflows Could Rescue Stocks By the End of June, JPMorgan Says</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n$250 Billion in \"Rebalancing\" Inflows Could Rescue Stocks By the End of June, JPMorgan Says\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n<div class=\"head\" \">\n\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/150f88aa4d182df19190059f4a365e99);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">Dow Jones </p>\n<p class=\"h-time\">2022-05-29 08:45</p>\n</div>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<html><head></head><body><p>While stock-market strategists at Bank of America and Morgan Stanley grow increasingly bearish, JPMorgan&#39;s equity-research department has churned up yet another bullish note for the bank&#39;s clients, advising them about the potential for massive month- and quarter-end rebalancing flows that could trigger a sustained rebound in stocks, putting even more distance between the U.S. benchmarks and the bear-market territory with which the S&amp;P 500 index was flirting late last week.</p><p>The team of JPMorgan equity quants, led by Nikolaos Panigirtzoglou, told the bank&#39;s clients that potentially more than $250 billion could flow into stocks by the end of June as American mutual funds and pension funds, along with foreign pensions and sovereign-wealth funds, &#34;rebalance&#34; by buying stocks and selling bonds to compensate for the latest drop in stocks.</p><p>In their latest report on equity flows and liquidity, the team said it expects between $34 billion and $56 billion of buying by &#34;balanced&#34; mutual funds (that is, funds that aim to maintain a 60/40 weighting of stocks to bonds in accordance with the principles of Modern Portfolio Theory).</p><p>But even larger than the mutual-fund universe is the world of defined-benefit pension funds, which Panigirtzoglou and his team believe could dump as much as $167 billion into U.S. stocks by the end of June.</p><p>These funds have an aggregate $7.5 trillion in assets under management, according to JPMorgan, and although pension funds tend to rebalance more slowly than mutual funds, the JPMorgan team suspects that they might be behind the eight-ball on rebalancing for April, leaving more room for buying as we head into the summer months.</p><p>Finally, the JPMorgan analysts expect an additional $40 billion of inflows from major foreign buyers like the Norges Bank (which controls Norway&#39;s massive sovereign-wealth fund), the Swiss National Bank (which maintains a large portfolio of U.S. equities) and Japanese pension funds.</p><p>All told, that&#39;s potentially more than $250 billion in inflows that could bolster Wall Street stocks. Since algorithmic traders like Commodity Trading Advisors often trade based on momentum, the initial move higher in equities caused by these inflows could potentially trigger a virtuous feedback loop that could see stocks erase more than half of their year-to-date losses -- at least, according to JPMorgan.</p><p>To be sure, the JPMorgan team had expected a significant bump in equity prices due to rebalancing back in March, a call that didn&#39;t quite come to pass, although global equities did stage a brief rally, registering a modest gain for the month, their only monthly gain so far this year.</p><p>JPMorgan&#39;s strategists, particularly Panigirtzoglou and his colleague Marko Kolanovic, have been some of the most stridently bullish voices on Wall Street so far this year. But as noted above, other Wall Street strategists are much more bearish: for example, Lisa Shalett, chief investment officer of Morgan Stanley Wealth Management, said in a note to clients published Monday that downward earnings revisions could cause stocks to shed another 5% to 10% of their value.</p></body></html>\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{".SPX":"S&P 500 Index",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite"},"source_url":"","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2238585689","content_text":"While stock-market strategists at Bank of America and Morgan Stanley grow increasingly bearish, JPMorgan's equity-research department has churned up yet another bullish note for the bank's clients, advising them about the potential for massive month- and quarter-end rebalancing flows that could trigger a sustained rebound in stocks, putting even more distance between the U.S. benchmarks and the bear-market territory with which the S&P 500 index was flirting late last week.The team of JPMorgan equity quants, led by Nikolaos Panigirtzoglou, told the bank's clients that potentially more than $250 billion could flow into stocks by the end of June as American mutual funds and pension funds, along with foreign pensions and sovereign-wealth funds, \"rebalance\" by buying stocks and selling bonds to compensate for the latest drop in stocks.In their latest report on equity flows and liquidity, the team said it expects between $34 billion and $56 billion of buying by \"balanced\" mutual funds (that is, funds that aim to maintain a 60/40 weighting of stocks to bonds in accordance with the principles of Modern Portfolio Theory).But even larger than the mutual-fund universe is the world of defined-benefit pension funds, which Panigirtzoglou and his team believe could dump as much as $167 billion into U.S. stocks by the end of June.These funds have an aggregate $7.5 trillion in assets under management, according to JPMorgan, and although pension funds tend to rebalance more slowly than mutual funds, the JPMorgan team suspects that they might be behind the eight-ball on rebalancing for April, leaving more room for buying as we head into the summer months.Finally, the JPMorgan analysts expect an additional $40 billion of inflows from major foreign buyers like the Norges Bank (which controls Norway's massive sovereign-wealth fund), the Swiss National Bank (which maintains a large portfolio of U.S. equities) and Japanese pension funds.All told, that's potentially more than $250 billion in inflows that could bolster Wall Street stocks. Since algorithmic traders like Commodity Trading Advisors often trade based on momentum, the initial move higher in equities caused by these inflows could potentially trigger a virtuous feedback loop that could see stocks erase more than half of their year-to-date losses -- at least, according to JPMorgan.To be sure, the JPMorgan team had expected a significant bump in equity prices due to rebalancing back in March, a call that didn't quite come to pass, although global equities did stage a brief rally, registering a modest gain for the month, their only monthly gain so far this year.JPMorgan's strategists, particularly Panigirtzoglou and his colleague Marko Kolanovic, have been some of the most stridently bullish voices on Wall Street so far this year. But as noted above, other Wall Street strategists are much more bearish: for example, Lisa Shalett, chief investment officer of Morgan Stanley Wealth Management, said in a note to clients published Monday that downward earnings revisions could cause stocks to shed another 5% to 10% of their value.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{".SPX":0.9,".IXIC":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":585,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9934537663,"gmtCreate":1663282644152,"gmtModify":1676537241066,"author":{"id":"3558432070989796","authorId":"3558432070989796","name":"SFLIM","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/aaf11b13eed459a5545feddb4299b7ee","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3558432070989796","idStr":"3558432070989796"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Ok","listText":"Ok","text":"Ok","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":5,"commentSize":2,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9934537663","repostId":"1105919895","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1105919895","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1663255268,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1105919895?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2022-09-15 23:21","market":"us","language":"en","title":"The Latest NIO Stock Surge Will Be Short-Lived","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1105919895","media":"InvestorPlace","summary":"$Nio(NIO)$ stock back above $20 per share after analyst upgrades.Despite the renewed bullishness, shares in the China-based EV maker could easily give back these latest gains.Given the downside risk i","content":"<div>\n<p>Nio stock back above $20 per share after analyst upgrades.Despite the renewed bullishness, shares in the China-based EV maker could easily give back these latest gains.Given the downside risk if Nio ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://investorplace.com/2022/09/beware-the-latest-nio-stock-surge-will-be-short-lived/\">Source Link</a>\n\n</div>\n","source":"investorplace","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>The Latest NIO Stock Surge Will Be Short-Lived</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nThe Latest NIO Stock Surge Will Be Short-Lived\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2022-09-15 23:21 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://investorplace.com/2022/09/beware-the-latest-nio-stock-surge-will-be-short-lived/><strong>InvestorPlace</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>Nio stock back above $20 per share after analyst upgrades.Despite the renewed bullishness, shares in the China-based EV maker could easily give back these latest gains.Given the downside risk if Nio ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://investorplace.com/2022/09/beware-the-latest-nio-stock-surge-will-be-short-lived/\">Source Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"09866":"蔚来-SW","NIO":"蔚来","NIO.SI":"蔚来"},"source_url":"https://investorplace.com/2022/09/beware-the-latest-nio-stock-surge-will-be-short-lived/","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1105919895","content_text":"Nio stock back above $20 per share after analyst upgrades.Despite the renewed bullishness, shares in the China-based EV maker could easily give back these latest gains.Given the downside risk if Nio fails to deliver, you may not want to chase this recent rally.Despite mixed quarterly results, Nio (NYSE:NIO) stock has been on the rise following its Sept. 7 earnings release. The main factor behind this has been a spate of analyst upgrades for shares in the China-based electric vehicle (EV) maker.Confidence is rising again that the company’s production ramp-up will result in a big jump in sales for the rest of 2022, and going into 2023. Yet before you decide to jump in, and chase its recent rally, it’s hardly a lock that results in the coming quarter will live up to today’s elevated hopes.The ramp-up may still fail to produce results in line with expectations. This may cause the stock to give back recent gains. In the long term, Nio’s global expansion could also fall short of expectations. With high growth heavily priced in, it may not take much for today’s renewed bullishness to reverse.Why NIO Stock Has Surged Post-EarningsNio may have beat on revenue for the second quarter, but the results were hardly much to get excited about. As expected, China’s pandemic shutdowns continued to decelerate growth, on a year-over-year basis, and especially on a sequential basis.Even worse, the EV maker reported a higher-than-expected net loss. Compared to the prior year’s quarter, net losses per share were up 316.4%. Still, instead of reacting negatively to Q2 results, the market focused instead on the company’s outlook for Q3, which calls for a speeding back up of growth.This resulted in a slight uptick for NIO stock right after earnings but analyst upgrades sent shares soaring. As InvestorPlace’s Eddie Pan reported Sep 12, two analysts (Deutsche Bank’s Edison Yu, and BofA’s Ming-Hsun Lee) have reiterated their “buy” ratings, and have upped their price targets.Both analysts are bullish deliveries will re-accelerate considerably during Q4. This is due to a combination of the production ramp-up, plus Nio’s launch of new vehicle models. Yet while the situation may be improving, it may not be to the extent implied by the stock’s latest spike.How Its Latest Uptick Could ReverseAs buzz returns to NIO stock, it may seem that now’s the time to buy, ahead of a continued comeback. Unfortunately, there’s a lot to suggest that its latest surge may be short-lived in nature. With its move back above $20 per share, the market has now priced in a possible growth re-acceleration as a near-certainty.For the stock to keep moving higher, or at the very least avoid moving lower, Nio needs to both hit its own Q3 deliveries projection, plus hit Q4 numbers in line with the sell side’s expectations. Hitting its Q3 target may be attainable. Its monthly delivery numbers since June have come in above 10,000. Q4, though, may be a taller order.In order to meet Edison Yu’s 2022 estimate, Nio needs to deliver 57,000 vehicles between October and December. That’s nearly double projected Q3 deliveries.With increased production, new models, and Chinese government incentives, this may seem like a cinch. However, other factors, like China’s economic slowdown, could somewhat counter these positives.In turn, causing delivery numbers for the months ahead to fall short of expectations. Even if it’s a near miss, it may cause the stock to give back its recent gains.The Verdict on NIO StockNio stock earns a D rating in my Portfolio Grader. Beyond pulling back in the short term, shares could also keep performing poorly in the coming years. Long-term bulls believe high growth will continue. Even as growth in its home market returns, they are confident international expansion will keep it in high-growth mode.But only time will tell whether its first big expansion overseas (in Europe) proves successful. It may face greater competition in the China market. In Europe, it faces not just market leader Tesla (NASDAQ:TSLA), but competition from incumbent European luxury brands as well.Failure in Europe may result in it scrapping its North American expansion plans. Without global expansion, it will be difficult for Nio to sustain, much less grow, its current valuation.Given the downside risk of it failing to deliver in the coming quarter, you may not want to chase the recent NIO stock rally.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"NIO":0.9,"09866":0.9,"NIO.SI":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1597,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9939022146,"gmtCreate":1662028970688,"gmtModify":1676536628457,"author":{"id":"3558432070989796","authorId":"3558432070989796","name":"SFLIM","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/aaf11b13eed459a5545feddb4299b7ee","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3558432070989796","idStr":"3558432070989796"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Ok","listText":"Ok","text":"Ok","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":7,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9939022146","repostId":"1122895763","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1122895763","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1662045547,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1122895763?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2022-09-01 23:19","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Charlie Munger Predicted \"Considerable Trouble\" For Markets: SPY Implications","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1122895763","media":"Seeking Alpha","summary":"SummaryEarlier this year, billionaire investor Charlie Munger predicted that the markets would face ","content":"<html><head></head><body><p>Summary</p><ul><li>Earlier this year, billionaire investor Charlie Munger predicted that the markets would face &#34;considerable trouble.&#34;</li><li>We take a look at his prediction in light of recent macroeconomic developments and its implications for the S&amp;P 500.</li><li>We also share our approach to investing in the current environment.</li></ul><p>Billionaire investor Charlie Munger - Warren Buffett&#39;s partner at <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BRK.A\">Berkshire Hathaway </a> - recently opined that &#34;considerable trouble&#34; was coming for markets at the Daily Journal&#39;s (DJCO) annual meeting earlier this year, stating:</p><blockquote><i>What we&#39;re getting iswretched excess and danger for the country. Everybody loves it because it&#39;s like a bunch of people getting drunk at a party; they&#39;re having so much fun getting drunk that they don&#39;t think about the consequences. Eventually, there will be considerable trouble because of the wretched excess, that&#39;s the way it&#39;s usually worked in the past.</i></blockquote><p>He went on define what he meant by wretched excess:</p><blockquote><i>Certainly, the great short squeeze in GameStop (GME) was wretched excess. Certainly, the bitcoin (BTC-USD) thing is wretched excess. I would argue venture capital is throwing too much money too fast, and there&#39;s a considerable wretched excess in venture capital and other forms of private equity...There&#39;s never been anything quite like what we&#39;re doing now. We do know from what&#39;s happened in other nations, if you try and print too much money it eventually causes terrible trouble. We&#39;re closer to terrible trouble than we&#39;ve been in the past, but it may still be a long way off.&#34;</i></blockquote><p>While the <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/SPY\">SPDR S&amp;P 500 Trust ETF</a> has delivered -8.57% returns since that meeting, it has not yet experienced the &#34;considerable trouble&#34; of which Mr. Munger spoke:</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/aa9e327d28d335c1ba952173a78d8bcb\" tg-width=\"1280\" tg-height=\"802\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/>SPY Total Return Price data by YCharts</p><p>However, we can certainly see that the wretched excess has continued in the months since and the symptoms of it have also increased. While the crypto bubble has continued to burst, with bitcoin down an addition 56% since Mr. Munger&#39;s remarks, <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/GME\">GME</a> continues to enjoy an elevated valuation:</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5a461d8b52be2c08bfdea7bd63aa4a6f\" tg-width=\"1280\" tg-height=\"826\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/>GME data by YCharts</p><p>We can also see that interest rates remain near historic lows - despite rising considerably in recent months - and the highly inflated money supply has remained relatively flat since Mr. Munger made his remarks:</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/657129e113ae6df9d1e40ca014384412\" tg-width=\"1280\" tg-height=\"852\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/>US Long-Term Interest Rates data by YCharts</p><p>We can also see that market indexes and especially housing prices remain elevated:</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/13c7438df5f55651979a20fdff9651ff\" tg-width=\"1280\" tg-height=\"852\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/>SPY data by YCharts</p><p>However, the consequences of all this excess and bubble-like behavior are beginning to be felt, with GDP declining for two quarters in a row and inflation soaring to four-decade highs in recent months:</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/be6eb93157e6cb1f12a1b5b0d7519ff8\" tg-width=\"1280\" tg-height=\"802\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/>US Consumer Price Index YoY data by YCharts</p><p>In this article, we will discuss the implications that this has for the SPY as well as our investing approach in the current environment.</p><h3>Implication #1: Forward Returns Are Likely To Be Lackluster</h3><p>The biggest takeaway from Mr. Munger&#39;s remarks in light of current macroeconomic and market conditions is that forward returns for the SPY are likely to be lackluster. The reasons for this are pretty straightforward:</p><p>1. The economic growth outlook is weak, if not negative for the foreseeable future. Without strong economic growth, earnings growth is bound to be weak as well.</p><p>2. Valuation multiples are elevated relative to historical averages. According to datacompiledby Current Market Valuation based on an equally weighted average of the Yield Curve, Buffett indicator, P/E Ratio, Interest Rate, Margin Debt, and S&amp;P 500 Mean Reversion models based on historical data, the market is currently towards the upper end of the fairly valued range. This means that it is almost overvalued, implying that the market is likely to experience lackluster, if not poor, returns for the foreseeable future. The SPY is overvalued according to the Yield Curve, Buffett Indicator, P/E Ratio, and S&amp;P 500 Mean Reversion models, is slightly above fair value according to the Interest Rate model, and slightly below fair value according to the Margin Debt model.</p><p>3. Interest rates are likely to rise further, based on persistently high inflation and the Federal Reserve&#39;s latestcomments. Higher interest rates in the near future will make the market seem overvalued at present according to the Interest Rate model, adding further weight to the argument that the market is overvalued at the moment. Higher interest rates will also act like gravity on asset valuations, driving them lower.</p><p>When you combine weak growth with a lack of multiple expansion (and in fact likely multiple compression), very low dividend yields, and likely interest rate increases, there are no real catalysts to drive stock market returns.</p><h3>Implication #2: Volatility Will Likely Be Elevated For The Foreseeable Future</h3><p>That said, interest rates do remain historically cheap and there is still a lot of excess capital sloshing around in the global markets. As a result, there will still likely be plenty of dip buying, especially on any hints of inflation declining, the economy weathering the current headwinds better than expected, and/or the Federal Reserve beginning to change its hawkish stance. As the bulls and bears continue to duke it out in aggressive fashion, with bulls aggressively buying dips and bears aggressively selling rips on renewed fears of a recession and/or further interest rate hikes, volatility will likely remain elevated.</p><p>On top of that, with geopolitical risks mounting in East Asia, the Middle East, and Eastern Europe, there are plenty of potential further catalysts for sending stocks plunging lower at a minute&#39;s notice.</p><h3>Implication #3: A Market Crash Is Very Possible</h3><p>As already indicated in implication #2, a market crash is also very possible at the moment. The reasons for it are simple:</p><p>1. As already highlighted, valuations are already bloated, so a crash would not require a stark departure from historical valuation levels. In fact, a crash might be necessary to fully correct financial markets from all of the artificial stimulus from central bankers over the past decade.</p><p>2. There are numerous catalysts which could spark a market crash, and they seem more likely at the moment than at any time in recent memory: any number of geopolitical crises, ranging from a Chinese invasion of Taiwan, to the war in Europe going nuclear, to a major energy crisis if a war begins between Iran and Saudi Arabia, a massive cyber-attack that significantly disrupts the global economy, a major new pandemic or variant of COVID-19 emerging, or even possibly a major global recession.</p><h3>Investor Takeaway</h3><p>While these are certainly complicated, if not extremely challenging, times for investors trying to navigate the markets, we are remaining fully invested. However, we are keeping the following principles in mind to guide us with greater prudence during this period:</p><p>1. We are being highly selective by only investing in securities that appear to have a clear margin of safety, while keeping a small weighting in our most cyclical positions and overweighting our most defensive positions.</p><p>2. We are avoiding taking on any personal leverage through this period in order to minimize our risk of outsized losses in the event of a market crash and to give us the capacity to potentially create some dry powder to capitalize on a market crash.</p><p>3. We are also investing in securities that profit from elevated volatility as we believe that - even in a scenario where the markets do not experience a full-fledged crash - volatility levels will likely be above average for the foreseeable future due to the geopolitical and macroeconomic jitters that are gripping the markets with increasing frequency. As the chart below indicates, volatility as depicted by theVIXis up significantly from where it was before COVID-19 and is even up in 2022 relative to the second half of 2021.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/61315c652f099418782c73479f3dd50a\" tg-width=\"1280\" tg-height=\"802\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/>VIXdata by YCharts</p><p>For those who choose to continue investing in low-cost index funds like SPY, we are not bullish in the short-term, as - for the reasons outlined in this article - we expect lackluster economic growth, elevated valuations, rising interest rates, and the rising risks of a black swan event to suppress broad market total returns for the foreseeable future. As a result, we encourage investors to be more selective in the current environment than to blindly buy the broader market. At the same time, for those committed to passive investing over the long term, remaining fully invested with a practice of consistent long-term dollar cost averaging and prudent personal financial management is unlikely to deliver disappointing results over the course of decades. For that reason, we give the SPY a Hold rating right now.</p></body></html>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Charlie Munger Predicted \"Considerable Trouble\" For Markets: SPY Implications</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nCharlie Munger Predicted \"Considerable Trouble\" For Markets: SPY Implications\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2022-09-01 23:19 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://seekingalpha.com/article/4537755-charlie-munger-predicted-considerable-trouble-for-markets-spy-implications><strong>Seeking Alpha</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>SummaryEarlier this year, billionaire investor Charlie Munger predicted that the markets would face \"considerable trouble.\"We take a look at his prediction in light of recent macroeconomic ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4537755-charlie-munger-predicted-considerable-trouble-for-markets-spy-implications\">Source Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"SPY":"标普500ETF"},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4537755-charlie-munger-predicted-considerable-trouble-for-markets-spy-implications","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1122895763","content_text":"SummaryEarlier this year, billionaire investor Charlie Munger predicted that the markets would face \"considerable trouble.\"We take a look at his prediction in light of recent macroeconomic developments and its implications for the S&P 500.We also share our approach to investing in the current environment.Billionaire investor Charlie Munger - Warren Buffett's partner at Berkshire Hathaway  - recently opined that \"considerable trouble\" was coming for markets at the Daily Journal's (DJCO) annual meeting earlier this year, stating:What we're getting iswretched excess and danger for the country. Everybody loves it because it's like a bunch of people getting drunk at a party; they're having so much fun getting drunk that they don't think about the consequences. Eventually, there will be considerable trouble because of the wretched excess, that's the way it's usually worked in the past.He went on define what he meant by wretched excess:Certainly, the great short squeeze in GameStop (GME) was wretched excess. Certainly, the bitcoin (BTC-USD) thing is wretched excess. I would argue venture capital is throwing too much money too fast, and there's a considerable wretched excess in venture capital and other forms of private equity...There's never been anything quite like what we're doing now. We do know from what's happened in other nations, if you try and print too much money it eventually causes terrible trouble. We're closer to terrible trouble than we've been in the past, but it may still be a long way off.\"While the SPDR S&P 500 Trust ETF has delivered -8.57% returns since that meeting, it has not yet experienced the \"considerable trouble\" of which Mr. Munger spoke:SPY Total Return Price data by YChartsHowever, we can certainly see that the wretched excess has continued in the months since and the symptoms of it have also increased. While the crypto bubble has continued to burst, with bitcoin down an addition 56% since Mr. Munger's remarks, GME continues to enjoy an elevated valuation:GME data by YChartsWe can also see that interest rates remain near historic lows - despite rising considerably in recent months - and the highly inflated money supply has remained relatively flat since Mr. Munger made his remarks:US Long-Term Interest Rates data by YChartsWe can also see that market indexes and especially housing prices remain elevated:SPY data by YChartsHowever, the consequences of all this excess and bubble-like behavior are beginning to be felt, with GDP declining for two quarters in a row and inflation soaring to four-decade highs in recent months:US Consumer Price Index YoY data by YChartsIn this article, we will discuss the implications that this has for the SPY as well as our investing approach in the current environment.Implication #1: Forward Returns Are Likely To Be LacklusterThe biggest takeaway from Mr. Munger's remarks in light of current macroeconomic and market conditions is that forward returns for the SPY are likely to be lackluster. The reasons for this are pretty straightforward:1. The economic growth outlook is weak, if not negative for the foreseeable future. Without strong economic growth, earnings growth is bound to be weak as well.2. Valuation multiples are elevated relative to historical averages. According to datacompiledby Current Market Valuation based on an equally weighted average of the Yield Curve, Buffett indicator, P/E Ratio, Interest Rate, Margin Debt, and S&P 500 Mean Reversion models based on historical data, the market is currently towards the upper end of the fairly valued range. This means that it is almost overvalued, implying that the market is likely to experience lackluster, if not poor, returns for the foreseeable future. The SPY is overvalued according to the Yield Curve, Buffett Indicator, P/E Ratio, and S&P 500 Mean Reversion models, is slightly above fair value according to the Interest Rate model, and slightly below fair value according to the Margin Debt model.3. Interest rates are likely to rise further, based on persistently high inflation and the Federal Reserve's latestcomments. Higher interest rates in the near future will make the market seem overvalued at present according to the Interest Rate model, adding further weight to the argument that the market is overvalued at the moment. Higher interest rates will also act like gravity on asset valuations, driving them lower.When you combine weak growth with a lack of multiple expansion (and in fact likely multiple compression), very low dividend yields, and likely interest rate increases, there are no real catalysts to drive stock market returns.Implication #2: Volatility Will Likely Be Elevated For The Foreseeable FutureThat said, interest rates do remain historically cheap and there is still a lot of excess capital sloshing around in the global markets. As a result, there will still likely be plenty of dip buying, especially on any hints of inflation declining, the economy weathering the current headwinds better than expected, and/or the Federal Reserve beginning to change its hawkish stance. As the bulls and bears continue to duke it out in aggressive fashion, with bulls aggressively buying dips and bears aggressively selling rips on renewed fears of a recession and/or further interest rate hikes, volatility will likely remain elevated.On top of that, with geopolitical risks mounting in East Asia, the Middle East, and Eastern Europe, there are plenty of potential further catalysts for sending stocks plunging lower at a minute's notice.Implication #3: A Market Crash Is Very PossibleAs already indicated in implication #2, a market crash is also very possible at the moment. The reasons for it are simple:1. As already highlighted, valuations are already bloated, so a crash would not require a stark departure from historical valuation levels. In fact, a crash might be necessary to fully correct financial markets from all of the artificial stimulus from central bankers over the past decade.2. There are numerous catalysts which could spark a market crash, and they seem more likely at the moment than at any time in recent memory: any number of geopolitical crises, ranging from a Chinese invasion of Taiwan, to the war in Europe going nuclear, to a major energy crisis if a war begins between Iran and Saudi Arabia, a massive cyber-attack that significantly disrupts the global economy, a major new pandemic or variant of COVID-19 emerging, or even possibly a major global recession.Investor TakeawayWhile these are certainly complicated, if not extremely challenging, times for investors trying to navigate the markets, we are remaining fully invested. However, we are keeping the following principles in mind to guide us with greater prudence during this period:1. We are being highly selective by only investing in securities that appear to have a clear margin of safety, while keeping a small weighting in our most cyclical positions and overweighting our most defensive positions.2. We are avoiding taking on any personal leverage through this period in order to minimize our risk of outsized losses in the event of a market crash and to give us the capacity to potentially create some dry powder to capitalize on a market crash.3. We are also investing in securities that profit from elevated volatility as we believe that - even in a scenario where the markets do not experience a full-fledged crash - volatility levels will likely be above average for the foreseeable future due to the geopolitical and macroeconomic jitters that are gripping the markets with increasing frequency. As the chart below indicates, volatility as depicted by theVIXis up significantly from where it was before COVID-19 and is even up in 2022 relative to the second half of 2021.VIXdata by YChartsFor those who choose to continue investing in low-cost index funds like SPY, we are not bullish in the short-term, as - for the reasons outlined in this article - we expect lackluster economic growth, elevated valuations, rising interest rates, and the rising risks of a black swan event to suppress broad market total returns for the foreseeable future. As a result, we encourage investors to be more selective in the current environment than to blindly buy the broader market. At the same time, for those committed to passive investing over the long term, remaining fully invested with a practice of consistent long-term dollar cost averaging and prudent personal financial management is unlikely to deliver disappointing results over the course of decades. For that reason, we give the SPY a Hold rating right now.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"SPY":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":457,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9905636556,"gmtCreate":1659868347777,"gmtModify":1703767230990,"author":{"id":"3558432070989796","authorId":"3558432070989796","name":"SFLIM","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/aaf11b13eed459a5545feddb4299b7ee","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3558432070989796","idStr":"3558432070989796"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Ok","listText":"Ok","text":"Ok","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":5,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9905636556","repostId":"1166128821","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1166128821","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1659844984,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1166128821?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2022-08-07 12:03","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Palantir Q2: Investors Beware","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1166128821","media":"Seeking Alpha","summary":"SummaryPalantir will be reporting its Q2 results before markets open on Monday.Its revenue is estima","content":"<html><head></head><body><p><b>Summary</b></p><ul><li>Palantir will be reporting its Q2 results before markets open on Monday.</li><li>Its revenue is estimated to be $474.1 million.</li><li>Palantir&#39;s government revenue likely to remain subdued on account of lackluster order wins from the US government during the quarter.</li></ul><p>Palantir (NYSE:PLTR) will be releasing its Q2resultsbefore markets open on Monday. The company&#39;s management issued an extremely conservative revenue guidance for the quarter, in light of the global macroeconomic uncertainty, and investors are now wondering if there&#39;s a possibility of a revenue beat. But in addition to tracking Palantir&#39;s top line figure, investors should also track its customer additions, billings growth, segment financials and its management&#39;s outlook for Q3. These items, collectively, will highlight Palantir&#39;s near-term growth prospects and are likely to determine where its shares head next.</p><p><b>Operating Metrics</b></p><p>There&#39;s no denying that Palantir is a rapidly growing company but we&#39;ve to keep a vigilant eye and check if its financial and operating growth momentums don&#39;t fizzle out during these times of macroeconomic uncertainty. For this, we can start by monitoring Palantir&#39;s customer additions, which essentially highlights its customer traction and indicates how competitive its platforms really are, in today&#39;s time.</p><p>Palantir has been able to expand its commercial customer base at an impressive pace over the past 6 quarters, exactly as I had forecasted in my prior articles like here, by undertaking a slew of initiatives. They rapidly expanded their sales team, offered free/limit trials to major enterprises and switched to a recurring payment model to reduce the inertia amongst its potential customer base. Since these initiatives are still ongoing, I expect them to continue bearing fruit and expect the company&#39;s commercial customer base to expand rapidly in the foreseeable future as well.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/cfaddbc06e94e062dc724ff5af6593b7\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"544\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>BusinessQuant.com</p><p>However, Palantir seems to have hit a saturation point with regards to its government customer base. Maybe there&#39;s geopolitics at play, or maybe there aren&#39;t many government agencies in the world that are looking for data analytics solutions from a non-native company that has close ties with the US government. I welcome readers to speculate on the issue. But having said that, there haven&#39;t been any major announcements from Palantir to catapult growth in this area so I expect its government customer base to more or less remain flat sequentially.</p><p>Moving on, the customer adds figure alone won&#39;t be enough to reveal the entire picture. For instance, a sequentially flat billings figure, while customer growth continues, would imply that either existing customers slashed their spending on Palantir&#39;s platforms or its new customers signed up with miniscule contract values. On the other hand, healthy customer and billings growth would imply that Palantir&#39;s new and existing customers are in the process of ramping their spending on the company&#39;s platforms. A third scenario could be if Palantir&#39;s billings and customer growth declines, stagnates, or slows down, which would imply that Palantir has hit a saturation point and its platforms are no longer in vogue. So, pay close attention to Palantir&#39;s billings growth once the company reports its Q2 results this coming Monday.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/cfef004ca3e7144d46683d030948280b\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"425\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>BusinessQuant.com</p><p>Now, having discussed the operating levers, let&#39;s now shift attention to Palantir&#39;s financials.</p><p><b>Financial Bifurcation</b></p><p>It&#39;s worth noting that Palantir classifies its revenue in two reportable segments, namely commercial and government segments. The commercial segment happens to be the smaller one out of the two, at least in terms of revenue, and amounted to nearly 46% of the company&#39;s total sales last quarter.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c6c26bc211b592883ccfc648d76d754f\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"545\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>BusinessQuant.com</p><p>Thanks to the rapid commercial customer adds in recent quarters, Palantir&#39;s commercial revenue has been growing at a breakneck pace of late and driving growth for the company as a whole. I expect this dynamic to continue in Q2 as well, with commercial revenue growing 10% sequentially and amounting to $225 million during Q2 2022.</p><p>The government segment contributed a little over 54% to Palantir&#39;s overall sales last quarter and the revenue stream has been growing at a relatively slower pace. This is, in part, due to the saturation in government customer additions as seen in the first section of this article. If the company&#39;s government customer base has saturated, then it&#39;s only natural that its government revenue stream would saturate as well.</p><p>What exacerbates the problem is that the inflow of federal government contracts has considerably slowed down in the last 2 quarters. Although Palantir&#39;s management noted in their last earnings call that they are &#34;seeing an acceleration of our U.S. government revenue&#34;, the ground reality isn&#39;t all that encouraging. As it turns out, the dollar-value of new orders signed with various US government agencies during Q2, is up 14% sequentially but still down 48% year over year. This means that even though Palantir has made some progress on this front, there&#39;s still a long way to go when compared to the company&#39;s own prior history with government contract wins.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/513e837064ffbf5b6adf1084eda3110b\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"456\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>BusinessQuant.com</p><p>So, as far as Q2 is concerned, I expect Palantir&#39;s government revenue to grow marginally by 3% sequentially, with its revenue figure coming in at approximately $249 million. At this pace, I expect Palantir&#39;s commercial revenue to overtake its government revenue and become the leading contributor to the entire company&#39;s top line sometime in Q4 2022 or Q1 2023. But coming back to our discussion, this brings us to a company-wide revenue estimate of $474.1 million. My forecast is coincidentally in-line with the Street&#39;sestimatesthat are spanning from $470 million to $475.9 million.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a64133285cdbea23e36084f025bdfe2b\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"209\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>BusinessQuant.com</p><p>But having said that, pay close attention to Palantir management&#39;s revenue and billings outlook for Q3. As companies and government agencies across the globe cut down on spending, Palantir might be affected as well. This could come in the form of order cancellations, deferred contract signings and/or slowing down revenue growth. So, look for management&#39;s comments on their growth momentum.</p><p><b>Final Thoughts</b></p><p>Palantir&#39;s shares are down 62% from their 52-week highs and they&#39;re now attractively valued at current levels. The stock is trading at 14-times its trailing twelve-month sales at the time of this writing, which is more or less in-line with many of the other rapidly growing software infrastructure stocks.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/54f28bcdbe209a2f5851224c7db57676\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"349\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>BusinessQuant.com</p><p>I, personally, expect Palantir to continue growing rapidly in the next 2 years at the very least. The company has compelling platform offerings and it has market validation in the form of rapid commercial customer additions. So, I remain bullish on Palantir. But, at the same time, I would recommend readers and investors to remain vigilant and monitor its customer additions, billings growth, segment financials and its management&#39;s outlook for Q3. These items will indicate if Palantir is succumbing to macroeconomic pressures or if its growth momentum remains intact. Good Luck!</p></body></html>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Palantir Q2: Investors Beware</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nPalantir Q2: Investors Beware\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2022-08-07 12:03 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://seekingalpha.com/article/4529579-palantir-q2-investors-beware><strong>Seeking Alpha</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>SummaryPalantir will be reporting its Q2 results before markets open on Monday.Its revenue is estimated to be $474.1 million.Palantir's government revenue likely to remain subdued on account of ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4529579-palantir-q2-investors-beware\">Source Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"PLTR":"Palantir Technologies Inc."},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4529579-palantir-q2-investors-beware","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1166128821","content_text":"SummaryPalantir will be reporting its Q2 results before markets open on Monday.Its revenue is estimated to be $474.1 million.Palantir's government revenue likely to remain subdued on account of lackluster order wins from the US government during the quarter.Palantir (NYSE:PLTR) will be releasing its Q2resultsbefore markets open on Monday. The company's management issued an extremely conservative revenue guidance for the quarter, in light of the global macroeconomic uncertainty, and investors are now wondering if there's a possibility of a revenue beat. But in addition to tracking Palantir's top line figure, investors should also track its customer additions, billings growth, segment financials and its management's outlook for Q3. These items, collectively, will highlight Palantir's near-term growth prospects and are likely to determine where its shares head next.Operating MetricsThere's no denying that Palantir is a rapidly growing company but we've to keep a vigilant eye and check if its financial and operating growth momentums don't fizzle out during these times of macroeconomic uncertainty. For this, we can start by monitoring Palantir's customer additions, which essentially highlights its customer traction and indicates how competitive its platforms really are, in today's time.Palantir has been able to expand its commercial customer base at an impressive pace over the past 6 quarters, exactly as I had forecasted in my prior articles like here, by undertaking a slew of initiatives. They rapidly expanded their sales team, offered free/limit trials to major enterprises and switched to a recurring payment model to reduce the inertia amongst its potential customer base. Since these initiatives are still ongoing, I expect them to continue bearing fruit and expect the company's commercial customer base to expand rapidly in the foreseeable future as well.BusinessQuant.comHowever, Palantir seems to have hit a saturation point with regards to its government customer base. Maybe there's geopolitics at play, or maybe there aren't many government agencies in the world that are looking for data analytics solutions from a non-native company that has close ties with the US government. I welcome readers to speculate on the issue. But having said that, there haven't been any major announcements from Palantir to catapult growth in this area so I expect its government customer base to more or less remain flat sequentially.Moving on, the customer adds figure alone won't be enough to reveal the entire picture. For instance, a sequentially flat billings figure, while customer growth continues, would imply that either existing customers slashed their spending on Palantir's platforms or its new customers signed up with miniscule contract values. On the other hand, healthy customer and billings growth would imply that Palantir's new and existing customers are in the process of ramping their spending on the company's platforms. A third scenario could be if Palantir's billings and customer growth declines, stagnates, or slows down, which would imply that Palantir has hit a saturation point and its platforms are no longer in vogue. So, pay close attention to Palantir's billings growth once the company reports its Q2 results this coming Monday.BusinessQuant.comNow, having discussed the operating levers, let's now shift attention to Palantir's financials.Financial BifurcationIt's worth noting that Palantir classifies its revenue in two reportable segments, namely commercial and government segments. The commercial segment happens to be the smaller one out of the two, at least in terms of revenue, and amounted to nearly 46% of the company's total sales last quarter.BusinessQuant.comThanks to the rapid commercial customer adds in recent quarters, Palantir's commercial revenue has been growing at a breakneck pace of late and driving growth for the company as a whole. I expect this dynamic to continue in Q2 as well, with commercial revenue growing 10% sequentially and amounting to $225 million during Q2 2022.The government segment contributed a little over 54% to Palantir's overall sales last quarter and the revenue stream has been growing at a relatively slower pace. This is, in part, due to the saturation in government customer additions as seen in the first section of this article. If the company's government customer base has saturated, then it's only natural that its government revenue stream would saturate as well.What exacerbates the problem is that the inflow of federal government contracts has considerably slowed down in the last 2 quarters. Although Palantir's management noted in their last earnings call that they are \"seeing an acceleration of our U.S. government revenue\", the ground reality isn't all that encouraging. As it turns out, the dollar-value of new orders signed with various US government agencies during Q2, is up 14% sequentially but still down 48% year over year. This means that even though Palantir has made some progress on this front, there's still a long way to go when compared to the company's own prior history with government contract wins.BusinessQuant.comSo, as far as Q2 is concerned, I expect Palantir's government revenue to grow marginally by 3% sequentially, with its revenue figure coming in at approximately $249 million. At this pace, I expect Palantir's commercial revenue to overtake its government revenue and become the leading contributor to the entire company's top line sometime in Q4 2022 or Q1 2023. But coming back to our discussion, this brings us to a company-wide revenue estimate of $474.1 million. My forecast is coincidentally in-line with the Street'sestimatesthat are spanning from $470 million to $475.9 million.BusinessQuant.comBut having said that, pay close attention to Palantir management's revenue and billings outlook for Q3. As companies and government agencies across the globe cut down on spending, Palantir might be affected as well. This could come in the form of order cancellations, deferred contract signings and/or slowing down revenue growth. So, look for management's comments on their growth momentum.Final ThoughtsPalantir's shares are down 62% from their 52-week highs and they're now attractively valued at current levels. The stock is trading at 14-times its trailing twelve-month sales at the time of this writing, which is more or less in-line with many of the other rapidly growing software infrastructure stocks.BusinessQuant.comI, personally, expect Palantir to continue growing rapidly in the next 2 years at the very least. The company has compelling platform offerings and it has market validation in the form of rapid commercial customer additions. So, I remain bullish on Palantir. But, at the same time, I would recommend readers and investors to remain vigilant and monitor its customer additions, billings growth, segment financials and its management's outlook for Q3. These items will indicate if Palantir is succumbing to macroeconomic pressures or if its growth momentum remains intact. Good Luck!","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"PLTR":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":893,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9077439917,"gmtCreate":1658550404639,"gmtModify":1676536176108,"author":{"id":"3558432070989796","authorId":"3558432070989796","name":"SFLIM","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/aaf11b13eed459a5545feddb4299b7ee","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3558432070989796","idStr":"3558432070989796"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Ok","listText":"Ok","text":"Ok","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":5,"commentSize":2,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9077439917","repostId":"2253065181","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":906,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9071419261,"gmtCreate":1657580004053,"gmtModify":1676536027018,"author":{"id":"3558432070989796","authorId":"3558432070989796","name":"SFLIM","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/aaf11b13eed459a5545feddb4299b7ee","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3558432070989796","idStr":"3558432070989796"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"OK","listText":"OK","text":"OK","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":5,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9071419261","repostId":"1164092479","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":655,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0}],"lives":[]}