Favian personal page - To The Moon

Favian

Favian

Gains for days

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2021-03-02

$INTL SPIRITS & WELLNESS(ISWH)$they just announced that they have tripled their crypto mining fleet!!! last chance to get in! $SOS Limited(SOS)$$Marathon Digital Holdings Inc(MARA)$$Riot Blockchain, Inc.(RIOT)$

2021-08-23

buy the dip

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2021-02-03

gamestock go brrrrrr

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2021-08-14

yup agree

Dow, S&P close at records as Disney offsets drop in sentiment

2021-04-05

interesting

How Likely Is a Stock Market Crash?

2022-06-29

swee

Tesla: Sniffing The Growth Cliff, Reiterating Sell

2021-09-05

okie

Beat the market with this quant system that’s very bullish on stocks at record highs

2021-08-16

okay

Nvidia, Tencent,Walmart, Target and Other Stocks to Watch This Week

2021-05-08

cool

What Happens to Stocks and Cryptocurrencies When the Fed Stops Raining Money?

2021-02-14

huat ahhhh ??? happy chinese new year!!

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Go to Tiger App to see more news

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green?","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9916661921","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1525,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0}],"hots":[{"id":365951568,"gmtCreate":1614692565854,"gmtModify":1704774088897,"author":{"id":"3562815822807212","authorId":"3562815822807212","name":"Favian","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3c9db4d731960e756da0c07d6b32f34a","crmLevel":6,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3562815822807212","idStr":"3562815822807212"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/ISWH\">$INTL SPIRITS &amp; WELLNESS(ISWH)$</a>they just announced that they have tripled their crypto mining fleet!!! last chance to get in! <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/SOS\">$SOS Limited(SOS)$</a><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MARA\">$Marathon Digital Holdings Inc(MARA)$</a><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/RIOT\">$Riot Blockchain, Inc.(RIOT)$</a>","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/ISWH\">$INTL SPIRITS &amp; WELLNESS(ISWH)$</a>they just announced that they have tripled their crypto mining fleet!!! last chance to get in! <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/SOS\">$SOS Limited(SOS)$</a><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MARA\">$Marathon Digital Holdings Inc(MARA)$</a><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/RIOT\">$Riot Blockchain, Inc.(RIOT)$</a>","text":"$INTL SPIRITS & WELLNESS(ISWH)$they just announced that they have tripled their crypto mining fleet!!! last chance to get in! $SOS Limited(SOS)$$Marathon Digital Holdings Inc(MARA)$$Riot Blockchain, Inc.(RIOT)$","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c0d4dd47edab7557aabe9eb4cf4f346e","width":"1125","height":"1949"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":11,"commentSize":3,"repostSize":1,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/365951568","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":3192,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[{"author":{"id":"3575256910067021","authorId":"3575256910067021","name":"Cinnamoon","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a2795c1e4a72d648f0a19fab08a62589","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"authorIdStr":"3575256910067021","idStr":"3575256910067021"},"content":"Blockchain fintech have been sustaining losses due to high accumulation of operational costs amd expansion while holding mined cryptocoins. They recently dumped alot of coins into the market which may have caused the recent drop in bitcoin. Even if bitcoin drop, soon these companies will report their huge revenue in march quarterly report. SOS will be sustainable and woll continue the good business. Good in short term, good in long term if bitcoin doesn't crash forever.","text":"Blockchain fintech have been sustaining losses due to high accumulation of operational costs amd expansion while holding mined cryptocoins. They recently dumped alot of coins into the market which may have caused the recent drop in bitcoin. Even if bitcoin drop, soon these companies will report their huge revenue in march quarterly report. SOS will be sustainable and woll continue the good business. Good in short term, good in long term if bitcoin doesn't crash forever.","html":"Blockchain fintech have been sustaining losses due to high accumulation of operational costs amd expansion while holding mined cryptocoins. They recently dumped alot of coins into the market which may have caused the recent drop in bitcoin. Even if bitcoin drop, soon these companies will report their huge revenue in march quarterly report. SOS will be sustainable and woll continue the good business. Good in short term, good in long term if bitcoin doesn't crash forever."}],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":835394652,"gmtCreate":1629686627676,"gmtModify":1676530099059,"author":{"id":"3562815822807212","authorId":"3562815822807212","name":"Favian","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3c9db4d731960e756da0c07d6b32f34a","crmLevel":6,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3562815822807212","idStr":"3562815822807212"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"buy the dip","listText":"buy the dip","text":"buy the dip","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":5,"commentSize":7,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/835394652","repostId":"2161747692","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":506,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":314681040,"gmtCreate":1612344440080,"gmtModify":1704869949147,"author":{"id":"3562815822807212","authorId":"3562815822807212","name":"Favian","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3c9db4d731960e756da0c07d6b32f34a","crmLevel":6,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3562815822807212","idStr":"3562815822807212"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"gamestock go brrrrrr","listText":"gamestock go brrrrrr","text":"gamestock go brrrrrr","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":6,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/314681040","repostId":"1172180017","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":489,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[{"author":{"id":"3567511757211423","authorId":"3567511757211423","name":"Money Sprout","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/a90f46b85a1738ed3c9b09de55cb7371","crmLevel":7,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"authorIdStr":"3567511757211423","idStr":"3567511757211423"},"content":"What is br? U mean go down?","text":"What is br? U mean go down?","html":"What is br? U mean go down?"}],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":897888035,"gmtCreate":1628905742727,"gmtModify":1676529889815,"author":{"id":"3562815822807212","authorId":"3562815822807212","name":"Favian","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3c9db4d731960e756da0c07d6b32f34a","crmLevel":6,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3562815822807212","idStr":"3562815822807212"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"yup agree","listText":"yup agree","text":"yup agree","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":8,"commentSize":2,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/897888035","repostId":"2159215280","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"2159215280","kind":"highlight","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"Reuters.com brings you the latest news from around the world, covering breaking news in markets, business, politics, entertainment and technology","home_visible":1,"media_name":"Reuters","id":"1036604489","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/443ce19704621c837795676028cec868"},"pubTimestamp":1628893972,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/2159215280?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2021-08-14 06:32","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Dow, S&P close at records as Disney offsets drop in sentiment","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2159215280","media":"Reuters","summary":"NEW YORK, Aug 13  - The Dow Industrial and S&P 500 edged up to closing records on Friday and notched a second straight week of gains, buoyed by a climb in Walt Disney shares, but a sharp drop in consumer sentiment kept gains in check.Walt Disney rose 1.00% as one of the biggest boosts to both the Dow and benchmark S&P index after its profit topped market expectations as its streaming services added more customers than expected and its pandemic-hit U.S. theme parks returned to profitability.\"That","content":"<p>* Disney boosts Dow, S&amp;P 500</p>\n<p>* S&amp;P 500, Dow close week higher</p>\n<p>* Dow up 0.04%, S&amp;P 500 up 0.16%, Nasdaq up 0.04%</p>\n<p>NEW YORK, Aug 13 (Reuters) - The Dow Industrial and S&amp;P 500 edged up to closing records on Friday and notched a second straight week of gains, buoyed by a climb in Walt Disney shares, but a sharp drop in consumer sentiment kept gains in check.</p>\n<p>Walt Disney rose 1.00% as one of the biggest boosts to both the Dow and benchmark S&amp;P index after its profit topped market expectations as its streaming services added more customers than expected and its pandemic-hit U.S. theme parks returned to profitability.</p>\n<p>But a report from the University of Michigan dented optimism after it showed the university's preliminary consumer sentiment index fell to 70.2, its lowest level in a decade, suggesting that the Delta variant of the coronavirus was impacting consumers.</p>\n<p>\"That is concerning, the consumer is by all accounts in an extremely strong position but there is this kind of COVID fatigue that is really starting to wear on people’s sentiment,\" said Ross Mayfield, investment strategist at Baird in Louisville, Kentucky.</p>\n<p>\"Regardless of lockdown or full reopen, the consumer is healthy enough to spend and kind of keep the economy afloat, it will be different names and different sectors that become the beneficiaries of it.\"</p>\n<p>The report sent the yield on the 10-year U.S. Treasury note&nbsp;lower and in turn helped lift mega-cap growth names, such as Microsoft Corp , up 1.05%, while online retail giant Amazon slipped 0.29%.</p>\n<p>The Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 15.53 points, or 0.04%, to 35,515.38, the S&amp;P 500 gained 7.17 points, or 0.16%, to 4,468 and the Nasdaq Composite added 6.64 points, or 0.04%, to 14,822.90.</p>\n<p>For the week, the Dow gained 0.87%, the S&amp;P 500 advanced 0.71% and the Nasdaq slipped 0.09%.</p>\n<p>U.S. stocks have managed to slowly grind to new highs over the past few sessions as investor confidence in economic recovery was bolstered by a strong earnings season, the passage of a large infrastructure bill and data showing inflation may be increasing at a slower pace than feared.</p>\n<p>In the wake of new data from earlier this week that showed consumer price increases slowed in July, while producer prices posted their biggest annual rise in more than a decade, investors are now looking ahead to the meeting of central bankers in Jackson Hole, Wyoming, later this month for cues on policy.</p>\n<p>In recent days, several Fed officials said it is nearly time for the central bank to begin pulling back on its monetary support, including the tapering of its asset purchases.</p>\n<p>DoorDash Inc rose 3.50% in choppy trading after the food-delivery firm's loss widened more than expected in the second quarter.</p>\n<p>Airbnb Inc gained 1.07% as it recovered from earlier declines, after it flagged a hit to its current-quarter bookings by the Delta variant and a slowing pace of U.S. vaccination.</p>\n<p>Volume on U.S. exchanges was 7.99 billion shares, compared with the 9.42 billion average for the full session over the last 20 trading days.</p>\n<p>The S&amp;P 500 posted 60 new 52-week highs and no new lows; the Nasdaq Composite recorded 87 new highs and 159 new lows.</p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Dow, S&P close at records as Disney offsets drop in sentiment</title>\n<style 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margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nDow, S&P close at records as Disney offsets drop in sentiment\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/1036604489\">\n\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/443ce19704621c837795676028cec868);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">Reuters </p>\n<p class=\"h-time\">2021-08-14 06:32</p>\n</div>\n\n</a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>* Disney boosts Dow, S&amp;P 500</p>\n<p>* S&amp;P 500, Dow close week higher</p>\n<p>* Dow up 0.04%, S&amp;P 500 up 0.16%, Nasdaq up 0.04%</p>\n<p>NEW YORK, Aug 13 (Reuters) - The Dow Industrial and S&amp;P 500 edged up to closing records on Friday and notched a second straight week of gains, buoyed by a climb in Walt Disney shares, but a sharp drop in consumer sentiment kept gains in check.</p>\n<p>Walt Disney rose 1.00% as one of the biggest boosts to both the Dow and benchmark S&amp;P index after its profit topped market expectations as its streaming services added more customers than expected and its pandemic-hit U.S. theme parks returned to profitability.</p>\n<p>But a report from the University of Michigan dented optimism after it showed the university's preliminary consumer sentiment index fell to 70.2, its lowest level in a decade, suggesting that the Delta variant of the coronavirus was impacting consumers.</p>\n<p>\"That is concerning, the consumer is by all accounts in an extremely strong position but there is this kind of COVID fatigue that is really starting to wear on people’s sentiment,\" said Ross Mayfield, investment strategist at Baird in Louisville, Kentucky.</p>\n<p>\"Regardless of lockdown or full reopen, the consumer is healthy enough to spend and kind of keep the economy afloat, it will be different names and different sectors that become the beneficiaries of it.\"</p>\n<p>The report sent the yield on the 10-year U.S. Treasury note&nbsp;lower and in turn helped lift mega-cap growth names, such as Microsoft Corp , up 1.05%, while online retail giant Amazon slipped 0.29%.</p>\n<p>The Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 15.53 points, or 0.04%, to 35,515.38, the S&amp;P 500 gained 7.17 points, or 0.16%, to 4,468 and the Nasdaq Composite added 6.64 points, or 0.04%, to 14,822.90.</p>\n<p>For the week, the Dow gained 0.87%, the S&amp;P 500 advanced 0.71% and the Nasdaq slipped 0.09%.</p>\n<p>U.S. stocks have managed to slowly grind to new highs over the past few sessions as investor confidence in economic recovery was bolstered by a strong earnings season, the passage of a large infrastructure bill and data showing inflation may be increasing at a slower pace than feared.</p>\n<p>In the wake of new data from earlier this week that showed consumer price increases slowed in July, while producer prices posted their biggest annual rise in more than a decade, investors are now looking ahead to the meeting of central bankers in Jackson Hole, Wyoming, later this month for cues on policy.</p>\n<p>In recent days, several Fed officials said it is nearly time for the central bank to begin pulling back on its monetary support, including the tapering of its asset purchases.</p>\n<p>DoorDash Inc rose 3.50% in choppy trading after the food-delivery firm's loss widened more than expected in the second quarter.</p>\n<p>Airbnb Inc gained 1.07% as it recovered from earlier declines, after it flagged a hit to its current-quarter bookings by the Delta variant and a slowing pace of U.S. vaccination.</p>\n<p>Volume on U.S. exchanges was 7.99 billion shares, compared with the 9.42 billion average for the full session over the last 20 trading days.</p>\n<p>The S&amp;P 500 posted 60 new 52-week highs and no new lows; the Nasdaq Composite recorded 87 new highs and 159 new lows.</p>\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"ABNB":"爱彼迎","DASH":"DoorDash, Inc.",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index","AMZN":"亚马逊",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite","MSFT":"微软",".DJI":"道琼斯","DIS":"迪士尼"},"is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2159215280","content_text":"* Disney boosts Dow, S&P 500\n* S&P 500, Dow close week higher\n* Dow up 0.04%, S&P 500 up 0.16%, Nasdaq up 0.04%\nNEW YORK, Aug 13 (Reuters) - The Dow Industrial and S&P 500 edged up to closing records on Friday and notched a second straight week of gains, buoyed by a climb in Walt Disney shares, but a sharp drop in consumer sentiment kept gains in check.\nWalt Disney rose 1.00% as one of the biggest boosts to both the Dow and benchmark S&P index after its profit topped market expectations as its streaming services added more customers than expected and its pandemic-hit U.S. theme parks returned to profitability.\nBut a report from the University of Michigan dented optimism after it showed the university's preliminary consumer sentiment index fell to 70.2, its lowest level in a decade, suggesting that the Delta variant of the coronavirus was impacting consumers.\n\"That is concerning, the consumer is by all accounts in an extremely strong position but there is this kind of COVID fatigue that is really starting to wear on people’s sentiment,\" said Ross Mayfield, investment strategist at Baird in Louisville, Kentucky.\n\"Regardless of lockdown or full reopen, the consumer is healthy enough to spend and kind of keep the economy afloat, it will be different names and different sectors that become the beneficiaries of it.\"\nThe report sent the yield on the 10-year U.S. Treasury note lower and in turn helped lift mega-cap growth names, such as Microsoft Corp , up 1.05%, while online retail giant Amazon slipped 0.29%.\nThe Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 15.53 points, or 0.04%, to 35,515.38, the S&P 500 gained 7.17 points, or 0.16%, to 4,468 and the Nasdaq Composite added 6.64 points, or 0.04%, to 14,822.90.\nFor the week, the Dow gained 0.87%, the S&P 500 advanced 0.71% and the Nasdaq slipped 0.09%.\nU.S. stocks have managed to slowly grind to new highs over the past few sessions as investor confidence in economic recovery was bolstered by a strong earnings season, the passage of a large infrastructure bill and data showing inflation may be increasing at a slower pace than feared.\nIn the wake of new data from earlier this week that showed consumer price increases slowed in July, while producer prices posted their biggest annual rise in more than a decade, investors are now looking ahead to the meeting of central bankers in Jackson Hole, Wyoming, later this month for cues on policy.\nIn recent days, several Fed officials said it is nearly time for the central bank to begin pulling back on its monetary support, including the tapering of its asset purchases.\nDoorDash Inc rose 3.50% in choppy trading after the food-delivery firm's loss widened more than expected in the second quarter.\nAirbnb Inc gained 1.07% as it recovered from earlier declines, after it flagged a hit to its current-quarter bookings by the Delta variant and a slowing pace of U.S. vaccination.\nVolume on U.S. exchanges was 7.99 billion shares, compared with the 9.42 billion average for the full session over the last 20 trading days.\nThe S&P 500 posted 60 new 52-week highs and no new lows; the Nasdaq Composite recorded 87 new highs and 159 new lows.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{".DJI":0.9,"MSFT":0.9,"AMZN":0.9,"ABNB":0.9,"DIS":0.9,"DASH":0.9,".IXIC":0.9,".SPX":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":572,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":349836537,"gmtCreate":1617586596529,"gmtModify":1704700574976,"author":{"id":"3562815822807212","authorId":"3562815822807212","name":"Favian","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3c9db4d731960e756da0c07d6b32f34a","crmLevel":6,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3562815822807212","idStr":"3562815822807212"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"interesting&nbsp;","listText":"interesting&nbsp;","text":"interesting","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":6,"commentSize":3,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/349836537","repostId":"1191998262","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1191998262","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1617366158,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1191998262?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2021-04-02 20:22","market":"us","language":"en","title":"How Likely Is a Stock Market Crash?","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1191998262","media":"Motley Fool","summary":"You may not like the answer.\n\nFor the past year, investors have enjoyed one of the greatest bounce-b","content":"<blockquote>\n You may not like the answer.\n</blockquote>\n<p>For the past year, investors have enjoyed one of the greatest bounce-back rallies of all time. After the benchmark<b>S&amp;P 500</b>(SNPINDEX:^GSPC)lost a third of its value in mere weeks due to unprecedented uncertainties surrounding the coronavirus pandemic, it bounced back to gain in the neighborhood of 75% off its lows. You could rightly say that patience has paid off.</p>\n<p>But there's another reality that investors -- especially long-term investors -- are keenly aware of: the propensity of the stock market to crash or correct. Things might look great now, but the next big nosedive is always waiting in the wings.</p>\n<p>It begs the question: How likely is astock market crash? Let's take a closer look.</p>\n<p><b>Double-digit declines occur every 1.87 years, on average</b></p>\n<p>To begin with the basics, stock market corrections (i.e., declines of at least 10%) are quite common in the S&amp;P 500. According to data from market analytics firm Yardeni Research, there have been 38 corrections in the S&amp;P 500 since the beginning of 1950. This works out to an average double-digit decline in the benchmark indexevery 1.87 years. Since it's now been more than a year since the market hit its bear-market bottom, the averages are certainly not in investors' favor.</p>\n<p>However, averages are nothing more than that... averages. The market doesn't adhere to averages, even if some folks base their investments off of what's happened historically.</p>\n<p>We could enter a period similar to 1991 through 1996 where there were zero corrections. Or we could continue the theme since the beginning of 2010, where corrections occur, on average, every 19 months.</p>\n<p><b>Corrections have been an historical given within three years of a bear market bottom</b></p>\n<p>Another interesting piece of evidence to examine is the frequency by which the S&amp;P 500 corrects after hitting a bear-market bottom.</p>\n<p>Since the beginning of 1960 (an arbitrary year I chose for the sake of simplicity), the widely followed index has navigated its way through nine bear markets, including the coronavirus crash. In rebounding from each of the previous eight bear market lows, there was at least one double-digit percentage decline within three years100% of the time. In aggregate, 13 corrections have occurred within three years following the last eight bear market bottoms (i.e., either one or two following each bottom).</p>\n<p>Put another way, rebounding from a bear-market bottom is rarely a straight-line move higher. Yet up, up, and away has pretty much been the theme for investors since March 23, 2020. History would suggest that there's a very good chance of a move lower in equities within the next two years.</p>\n<p><b>Crashes frequently occur when this valuation metric is hit</b></p>\n<p>But the most damning bit of evidence might just be the S&amp;P 500's Shiller price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio. This is a valuation metric that examines the average inflation-adjusted earnings from the previous 10 years. You might also know it as the cyclically adjusted P/E ratio, or CAPE.</p>\n<p>As of the close of business on March 30, the S&amp;P 500's Shiller P/E ratio hit 35.61. That's well over double its 150-year average of 16.8. Using continuous bull market moves as a parameter, it's the second-highest reading in its history.</p>\n<p>To some extent, itmakes sensethat equity valuations should be higher now than they've been historically. That's because interest rates are near an all-time low and access to the internet has effectively broken down barriers between Wall Street and Main Street that may have, in the past, kept P/E multiples at bay.</p>\n<p>However, previous instances of the S&amp;P 500's Shiller P/E ratio crossing above and sustaining the 30 levelhaven't ended well. In the prior four instances where the Shiller P/E surpassed and held above 30, the benchmark index tumbled anywhere from 20% to as much as 89%. Although an 89% plunge, which was experienced during the Great Depression, is very unlikely these days, a big drop has historically been in the cards when valuations get extended, as they are now.</p>\n<p><b>Keep that cash handy in the event that opportunity knocks</b></p>\n<p>To circle back to the original question at hand, the data is pretty clear that the likelihood of a stock market crash or correction has grown considerably. It's impossible to precisely predict when a crash might occur, how long the decline will last, or how steep the drop could be. But the data strongly suggests that downside is in the offing.</p>\n<p>While this might be a disappointing revelation to some investors, it shouldn't be. Crashes and corrections are a normal part of the investing cycle. More importantly, theyprovide an opportunityfor investors to buy into great companies at a discount. Just think about all the great companies you're probably kicking yourself over for not buying last March.</p>\n<p>The reason to be excited about crashes and corrections is also found in the data. You see, of those 38 previous corrections in the S&amp;P 500 since the beginning of 1950, each and every one has eventually been put into the rearview mirror by a bull market rally. Plus,at no point over the past centuryhave rolling 20-year total returns (including dividends) for the S&amp;P 500 been negative.</p>\n<p>If you need further encouragement to buy during a correction, keep in mind that 24 of the 38 double-digit declines in the S&amp;P 500 havefound their bottom in 104 or fewer calendar days(3.5 months or less). Crashes and corrections may be steep at times but tend to resolve quickly. That's your cue to have cash at the ready in the event that opportunity knocks.</p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>How Likely Is a Stock Market Crash?</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nHow Likely Is a Stock Market Crash?\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-04-02 20:22 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://www.fool.com/investing/2021/04/02/how-likely-is-a-stock-market-crash/><strong>Motley Fool</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>You may not like the answer.\n\nFor the past year, investors have enjoyed one of the greatest bounce-back rallies of all time. After the benchmarkS&P 500(SNPINDEX:^GSPC)lost a third of its value in mere...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://www.fool.com/investing/2021/04/02/how-likely-is-a-stock-market-crash/\">Source Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{".DJI":"道琼斯","SPY":"标普500ETF",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index"},"source_url":"https://www.fool.com/investing/2021/04/02/how-likely-is-a-stock-market-crash/","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1191998262","content_text":"You may not like the answer.\n\nFor the past year, investors have enjoyed one of the greatest bounce-back rallies of all time. After the benchmarkS&P 500(SNPINDEX:^GSPC)lost a third of its value in mere weeks due to unprecedented uncertainties surrounding the coronavirus pandemic, it bounced back to gain in the neighborhood of 75% off its lows. You could rightly say that patience has paid off.\nBut there's another reality that investors -- especially long-term investors -- are keenly aware of: the propensity of the stock market to crash or correct. Things might look great now, but the next big nosedive is always waiting in the wings.\nIt begs the question: How likely is astock market crash? Let's take a closer look.\nDouble-digit declines occur every 1.87 years, on average\nTo begin with the basics, stock market corrections (i.e., declines of at least 10%) are quite common in the S&P 500. According to data from market analytics firm Yardeni Research, there have been 38 corrections in the S&P 500 since the beginning of 1950. This works out to an average double-digit decline in the benchmark indexevery 1.87 years. Since it's now been more than a year since the market hit its bear-market bottom, the averages are certainly not in investors' favor.\nHowever, averages are nothing more than that... averages. The market doesn't adhere to averages, even if some folks base their investments off of what's happened historically.\nWe could enter a period similar to 1991 through 1996 where there were zero corrections. Or we could continue the theme since the beginning of 2010, where corrections occur, on average, every 19 months.\nCorrections have been an historical given within three years of a bear market bottom\nAnother interesting piece of evidence to examine is the frequency by which the S&P 500 corrects after hitting a bear-market bottom.\nSince the beginning of 1960 (an arbitrary year I chose for the sake of simplicity), the widely followed index has navigated its way through nine bear markets, including the coronavirus crash. In rebounding from each of the previous eight bear market lows, there was at least one double-digit percentage decline within three years100% of the time. In aggregate, 13 corrections have occurred within three years following the last eight bear market bottoms (i.e., either one or two following each bottom).\nPut another way, rebounding from a bear-market bottom is rarely a straight-line move higher. Yet up, up, and away has pretty much been the theme for investors since March 23, 2020. History would suggest that there's a very good chance of a move lower in equities within the next two years.\nCrashes frequently occur when this valuation metric is hit\nBut the most damning bit of evidence might just be the S&P 500's Shiller price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio. This is a valuation metric that examines the average inflation-adjusted earnings from the previous 10 years. You might also know it as the cyclically adjusted P/E ratio, or CAPE.\nAs of the close of business on March 30, the S&P 500's Shiller P/E ratio hit 35.61. That's well over double its 150-year average of 16.8. Using continuous bull market moves as a parameter, it's the second-highest reading in its history.\nTo some extent, itmakes sensethat equity valuations should be higher now than they've been historically. That's because interest rates are near an all-time low and access to the internet has effectively broken down barriers between Wall Street and Main Street that may have, in the past, kept P/E multiples at bay.\nHowever, previous instances of the S&P 500's Shiller P/E ratio crossing above and sustaining the 30 levelhaven't ended well. In the prior four instances where the Shiller P/E surpassed and held above 30, the benchmark index tumbled anywhere from 20% to as much as 89%. Although an 89% plunge, which was experienced during the Great Depression, is very unlikely these days, a big drop has historically been in the cards when valuations get extended, as they are now.\nKeep that cash handy in the event that opportunity knocks\nTo circle back to the original question at hand, the data is pretty clear that the likelihood of a stock market crash or correction has grown considerably. It's impossible to precisely predict when a crash might occur, how long the decline will last, or how steep the drop could be. But the data strongly suggests that downside is in the offing.\nWhile this might be a disappointing revelation to some investors, it shouldn't be. Crashes and corrections are a normal part of the investing cycle. More importantly, theyprovide an opportunityfor investors to buy into great companies at a discount. Just think about all the great companies you're probably kicking yourself over for not buying last March.\nThe reason to be excited about crashes and corrections is also found in the data. You see, of those 38 previous corrections in the S&P 500 since the beginning of 1950, each and every one has eventually been put into the rearview mirror by a bull market rally. Plus,at no point over the past centuryhave rolling 20-year total returns (including dividends) for the S&P 500 been negative.\nIf you need further encouragement to buy during a correction, keep in mind that 24 of the 38 double-digit declines in the S&P 500 havefound their bottom in 104 or fewer calendar days(3.5 months or less). Crashes and corrections may be steep at times but tend to resolve quickly. That's your cue to have cash at the ready in the event that opportunity knocks.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{".DJI":0.9,".SPX":0.9,"SPY":0.9,".IXIC":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":527,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9042678229,"gmtCreate":1656473652161,"gmtModify":1676535836812,"author":{"id":"3562815822807212","authorId":"3562815822807212","name":"Favian","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3c9db4d731960e756da0c07d6b32f34a","crmLevel":6,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3562815822807212","idStr":"3562815822807212"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"swee","listText":"swee","text":"swee","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":7,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9042678229","repostId":"1165982577","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1165982577","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1656467732,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1165982577?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2022-06-29 09:55","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Tesla: Sniffing The Growth Cliff, Reiterating Sell","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1165982577","media":"Seeking Alpha","summary":"SummaryWe view TSLA's product, technology, and business model through a generally rosy and optimisti","content":"<html><head></head><body><p><b>Summary</b></p><ul><li>We view TSLA&#39;s product, technology, and business model through a generally rosy and optimistic lens. We think they are the top dog in all three categories relative to traditional auto OEMs.</li><li>We look at extended wait times on TSLA vehicles as a sign of high, continued demand for product, demand that could stretch into early next year.</li><li>Our pessimism comes from the idea of a growth cliff. Supply constraints and high demand have caused a massive uplift in wait times. A consumer downturn would reign in growth materially.</li><li>Massive ASP hikes will likely be enough to keep unit margins juiced for now, but underlying cost improvements need to accelerate when inflation returns to normal to keep margins steady. Until then, you could see TSLA&#39;s gross margins be materially higher than what would be considered steady-state.</li><li>Reiterating Sell rating. PT reduced from $875 to $545. Bear Case PT of $279. Bull Case PT of $1,085. R/r skews downward, hence our continued Sell rating.</li></ul><p>Our Tesla Pitch - Tesla Needs A &#39;Soft Landing&#39; (To Use Fed Speak) In Order to Sustain Growth Rates; If They Can&#39;t, The Stock Has Room to Negatively Re-rate</p><p>We&#39;ve been in the bull camp or at least neutral on Tesla (NASDAQ:TSLA) since Q4 of 2018. That changed in January, as we called out market risk driving negative real returns in the stock.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/12137b01489bb9223b3aec14de942d03\" tg-width=\"635\" tg-height=\"417\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/>Data by YCharts</p><p>That was our call then. At the time the Fed was set to taper bond purchases at an accelerated rate, and rate hikes were likely on the horizon as inflation accelerated. We made the call in spite of our fundamental business optimism.</p><p>The call now is different. We still love the business, it&#39;s hard not to. The problem is we think growth is going to run into a wall, at least over the medium-term. If our call in January was a macro-market call, this call is more of a macro-economic call.</p><p>Consensus sell-side expectations are calling for EPS growth of ~79% and ~30% in &#39;22 and &#39;23. Expectations are calling for top-line growth of ~59% and ~33% in &#39;22 and &#39;23 from $85.64B to $114.39B.</p><p>These are high expectations against a high base. Now, if Tesla can navigate the long lead times on product mix before the macro environment overly-devolves, maybe they can navigate a soft-landing and the stock can stay stable. This is the pervasive &#39;Musk&#39; factor that has enabled Tesla to pull a rabbit out of the hat many-a-time.</p><p>This factor is our reason for caution and pessimism, but not outright taking a short position, at least not right now.</p><p><b>Core Thesis - As The Economy Slows, And Tesla Raises ASPs to Boost Margins &amp; Offset Inflation, New Order-flow Could Decelerate</b></p><p>The heading of our thesis seems pretty self-explanatory, but it&#39;s worth delving into each component of this a little deeper. At this point in time, our base case is that the US economy is already in a recession or will enter one this year. Economic productivity and growth are likely to slow from here, not speed up. Growth in labor and input costs is net-constrictive on the economy. We think Tesla is recognizing both of these factors, leading to massive price hikes to cushion margins.</p><p>They can do this for two reasons: (a.) a massive order backlog, and (b.) an incredibly strong brand. On the first note, Model Y LR lead times are six to nine months out. That is incredibly long and highlights one of two things: either (a.) Tesla is facing a massive surplus of demand, or (b.) supply is constrained. We think the real answer is both.</p><p>The secular theme of BEV adoption is in full-swing, and Tesla has the technology, the design-appeal, and the brand to capitalize on the shift in demand trends. And while debatable, some see high maintenance and gasoline prices have likely accelerated the value prop transition towards EVs somewhat.</p><p>Additionally, autos have been one of the primary verticals negatively impacted by disrupted supply chains. Component shortages, overseas shipping, factory closures etc. have disrupted Tesla and many other auto OEMs in getting new builds off production lines. We think with time, and with the ramp-up in Shanghai, Berlin, and Texas, Tesla&#39;s overall supply will increase, and this dynamic will fade a bit.</p><p>Nonetheless, tight supply resulting from mostly existential factors is allowing Tesla to lift prices and thus bolster margins, a dynamic that we question the long-term validity of.</p><p>We think that as interest rates rise and consumer spending weakens (or at least shifts), demand for big ticket items (like housing and autos) will slow materially. While Tesla can lean into their current order backlog to sustain deliveries, we question the ability of Tesla to refill this backlog over time if consumer-end trends are weakening. Simply put, where is the deliveries growth in $50K+ cars going to be when the consumer is backed against the wall?</p><p>This begs a few questions, how long will weak consumer trends in medium to luxury autos last? Additionally, how long before Tesla depletes its order backlog? What is the rate that this backlog refills? Will Tesla resort to price cuts (hurting unit margins) to generate incremental demand? These are all questions, questions that are difficult to answer with any degree of certainty.</p><p>When going long a name, and backing up a Buy rating, we need a degree of valuation support to reflect uncertainty.</p><p>If the economy slows, we question Tesla&#39;s ability to hit the aforementioned consensus revenue and earnings growth estimates, and even against those estimates, we question the valuation support you have. Tesla&#39;s trading at ~6.5x cons. &#39;23E sales, and ~45x cons. &#39;23E earnings.</p><p>We like the business, but are these multiples reflective of safety in the current environment? No. Too much uncertainty with too little valuation support gets us to where we are now.</p><p><b>Musk Knows This, Hence The Layoffs</b></p><p>Additionally, we think that management is well aware of these problems. Musk&#39;s &#39;bad feeling&#39; about the economy? The layoffs? A potential cost-cutting measure to support cash generation through a tougher time. Tesla isn&#39;t unique in laying off employees. If you&#39;ve been tracking the news, Big Tech in general has been finding reasons to reduce headcount.</p><p>We think fundamentally, management is planning ahead of the growth cliff by reducing headcount now, a move that we think will save money and agony over the medium term.</p><p><b>Long-Term Story Intact, But We Question Terminal Margins</b></p><p>Over the long haul, the story is still pretty clear on Tesla. We continue to believe they have the best product, technology, infrastructure, and brand in the BEV market. A BEV market that is still very early in its adoption curve, and a market Tesla is very early in fully capturing across the use-case spectrum (trucks, semis, compacts, etc.)</p><p>We think that as new order flow cools, and Tesla works through its existing backlog, investors will have to digest a period of materially slower revenue and deliveries growth. This is to be expected when you sell $50,000+ electric vehicles into a slower demand environment.</p><p>Over the long-haul, we continue to applaud Tesla&#39;s technology lead (particularly in manufacturing and cell tech, as well as cell-to-pack integration), solid brand (default name in BEVs), infrastructure (massive supercharging grid), and product design.</p><p>On the margin front, as a thought exercise however, we are slightly concerned. Based on prior work we have done, and work we have seen float around the sell-side and third-party shops, teardown analyses of your average Model 3 indicate that cost of manufacturing is ~$35K-~$36K per unit (prior to input cost inflation). While Tesla is able to sell at a ripe markup right now because of (a.) tight supply, (b.) the built-in excuse (to the consumer) of inflation, and (c.) a massive order backlog, we question the long-term strategic direction. Assuming Tesla cannot materially reduce cost per unit of manufacturing, would they maintain margins and sacrifice volume and thus deliveries and revenue growth, or reduce margins to &#39;normalized&#39; levels to pick up growth volume. Our bet would be on the latter, considering how mission-driven Musk &amp; Co. are on accelerating broader market adoption at least over the long-term. Over the short-term, we think Musk&#39;s recent strategic direction would emphasize a more defensive strategy.</p><p>We think to fuel mass market EV adopt, long-term, Tesla needs to move down market. Additionally, we think gross margins might have to come in as inflation comes in and the supply-demand dynamic rebalances.</p><p><b>Valuation</b></p><p>In terms of valuation, we think the stock is difficult to price. In the environment we are in, where the macro picture is uncertain and rates are rising at all durations of the yield curve, multiples are compressing pretty materially. When we explore what a base case valuation for the stock is, you have to keep in mind the uncertainty profile on the business right now: we don&#39;t know what steady-state gross margins are, we don&#39;t know where optionality stands (autonomy+energy in particular), and there&#39;s a lot of value creation already priced in.</p><p>It&#39;s hard to give reasonable estimates for out-year numbers because there are a lot of moving parts to juggle. We&#39;ll use the year 2030 as a basic reference number. What does 2030 BEV adoption look like relative to the overall auto market? What use cases (semis, pickups, etc.) are yet to be covered. What is Tesla&#39;s market share within BEVs? Terminal CapEx requirements?</p><p>It&#39;s a lot, and hard to predict reasonably.</p><p>For our part, we think the environment is fundamentally too uncertain. We&#39;re going to use average consensus estimates and the high and low estimates on the street to give investors a general valuation framework for what we would consider the reasonable base case, bull case, and bear case.</p><p><b>Base Case:</b> Our base case look takes cons. &#39;22 earnings and puts a 45x multiple on them. Pretty simple, we think the multiple is relatively warranted assuming Tesla can continue to grow as viciously as they have been. If Tesla can hit a high 70s growth pace for full year, in-line with consensus, then you&#39;re looking at ~$545 on the share price assuming 45x.</p><p><b>Bear Case:</b> Our bear case look implies the bottom end of the sell-side earnings range for &#39;22, which implies closer to high 30s earnings growth for the full year. You put a multiple closer to 30x to reflect a higher medium-term risk profile, and you&#39;re looking at ~$279/share.</p><p><b>Bull Case:</b> Our bull case looks at the top end of &#39;22 sell-side earnings estimates, which implies earnings growth of ~113% y/y. We use a 75x multiple to reflect this more optimistic long-term view, and to reflect the optimism of a soft-landing scenario. That gets us to $1,085/share in the bull case.</p><p>These are some pretty loose scenarios, and these aren&#39;t driven by any proprietary model work. Right now, because of the supply chain dynamics and the backlog depletion dynamics, it seems nearly impossible to make accurate forecasts to fit the reality of the company right now. As a result, we are using our base, bear, and bull case multiples and price targets to reflect our <i>qualitative</i> sentiment on the state of the company and the risks it faces medium term.</p><p><b>Conclusion</b></p><p>In conclusion, while we have generally liked the business model, the product, and the technology, we are very cautious on the stock. We see a growth cliff emerging on the horizon, and would wait to buy shares until after growth decelerates. That, according to some checks, could be as soon as the next couple weeks when Tesla reports 2Q deliveries. Maybe it&#39;s later on as the company works through its massive order backlog. Nevertheless, we are cautious. Reiterating Sell, all targets reduced.</p></body></html>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Tesla: Sniffing The Growth Cliff, Reiterating Sell</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nTesla: Sniffing The Growth Cliff, Reiterating Sell\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2022-06-29 09:55 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://seekingalpha.com/article/4520728-tesla-sniffing-growth-cliff-reiterating-sell?source=content_type%3Aall%7Cfirst_level_url%3Aportfolio%7Csection%3Aportfolio_content_unit%7Csection_asset%3Alatest%7Cline%3A21><strong>Seeking Alpha</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>SummaryWe view TSLA's product, technology, and business model through a generally rosy and optimistic lens. We think they are the top dog in all three categories relative to traditional auto OEMs.We ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4520728-tesla-sniffing-growth-cliff-reiterating-sell?source=content_type%3Aall%7Cfirst_level_url%3Aportfolio%7Csection%3Aportfolio_content_unit%7Csection_asset%3Alatest%7Cline%3A21\">Source Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"TSLA":"特斯拉"},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4520728-tesla-sniffing-growth-cliff-reiterating-sell?source=content_type%3Aall%7Cfirst_level_url%3Aportfolio%7Csection%3Aportfolio_content_unit%7Csection_asset%3Alatest%7Cline%3A21","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1165982577","content_text":"SummaryWe view TSLA's product, technology, and business model through a generally rosy and optimistic lens. We think they are the top dog in all three categories relative to traditional auto OEMs.We look at extended wait times on TSLA vehicles as a sign of high, continued demand for product, demand that could stretch into early next year.Our pessimism comes from the idea of a growth cliff. Supply constraints and high demand have caused a massive uplift in wait times. A consumer downturn would reign in growth materially.Massive ASP hikes will likely be enough to keep unit margins juiced for now, but underlying cost improvements need to accelerate when inflation returns to normal to keep margins steady. Until then, you could see TSLA's gross margins be materially higher than what would be considered steady-state.Reiterating Sell rating. PT reduced from $875 to $545. Bear Case PT of $279. Bull Case PT of $1,085. R/r skews downward, hence our continued Sell rating.Our Tesla Pitch - Tesla Needs A 'Soft Landing' (To Use Fed Speak) In Order to Sustain Growth Rates; If They Can't, The Stock Has Room to Negatively Re-rateWe've been in the bull camp or at least neutral on Tesla (NASDAQ:TSLA) since Q4 of 2018. That changed in January, as we called out market risk driving negative real returns in the stock.Data by YChartsThat was our call then. At the time the Fed was set to taper bond purchases at an accelerated rate, and rate hikes were likely on the horizon as inflation accelerated. We made the call in spite of our fundamental business optimism.The call now is different. We still love the business, it's hard not to. The problem is we think growth is going to run into a wall, at least over the medium-term. If our call in January was a macro-market call, this call is more of a macro-economic call.Consensus sell-side expectations are calling for EPS growth of ~79% and ~30% in '22 and '23. Expectations are calling for top-line growth of ~59% and ~33% in '22 and '23 from $85.64B to $114.39B.These are high expectations against a high base. Now, if Tesla can navigate the long lead times on product mix before the macro environment overly-devolves, maybe they can navigate a soft-landing and the stock can stay stable. This is the pervasive 'Musk' factor that has enabled Tesla to pull a rabbit out of the hat many-a-time.This factor is our reason for caution and pessimism, but not outright taking a short position, at least not right now.Core Thesis - As The Economy Slows, And Tesla Raises ASPs to Boost Margins & Offset Inflation, New Order-flow Could DecelerateThe heading of our thesis seems pretty self-explanatory, but it's worth delving into each component of this a little deeper. At this point in time, our base case is that the US economy is already in a recession or will enter one this year. Economic productivity and growth are likely to slow from here, not speed up. Growth in labor and input costs is net-constrictive on the economy. We think Tesla is recognizing both of these factors, leading to massive price hikes to cushion margins.They can do this for two reasons: (a.) a massive order backlog, and (b.) an incredibly strong brand. On the first note, Model Y LR lead times are six to nine months out. That is incredibly long and highlights one of two things: either (a.) Tesla is facing a massive surplus of demand, or (b.) supply is constrained. We think the real answer is both.The secular theme of BEV adoption is in full-swing, and Tesla has the technology, the design-appeal, and the brand to capitalize on the shift in demand trends. And while debatable, some see high maintenance and gasoline prices have likely accelerated the value prop transition towards EVs somewhat.Additionally, autos have been one of the primary verticals negatively impacted by disrupted supply chains. Component shortages, overseas shipping, factory closures etc. have disrupted Tesla and many other auto OEMs in getting new builds off production lines. We think with time, and with the ramp-up in Shanghai, Berlin, and Texas, Tesla's overall supply will increase, and this dynamic will fade a bit.Nonetheless, tight supply resulting from mostly existential factors is allowing Tesla to lift prices and thus bolster margins, a dynamic that we question the long-term validity of.We think that as interest rates rise and consumer spending weakens (or at least shifts), demand for big ticket items (like housing and autos) will slow materially. While Tesla can lean into their current order backlog to sustain deliveries, we question the ability of Tesla to refill this backlog over time if consumer-end trends are weakening. Simply put, where is the deliveries growth in $50K+ cars going to be when the consumer is backed against the wall?This begs a few questions, how long will weak consumer trends in medium to luxury autos last? Additionally, how long before Tesla depletes its order backlog? What is the rate that this backlog refills? Will Tesla resort to price cuts (hurting unit margins) to generate incremental demand? These are all questions, questions that are difficult to answer with any degree of certainty.When going long a name, and backing up a Buy rating, we need a degree of valuation support to reflect uncertainty.If the economy slows, we question Tesla's ability to hit the aforementioned consensus revenue and earnings growth estimates, and even against those estimates, we question the valuation support you have. Tesla's trading at ~6.5x cons. '23E sales, and ~45x cons. '23E earnings.We like the business, but are these multiples reflective of safety in the current environment? No. Too much uncertainty with too little valuation support gets us to where we are now.Musk Knows This, Hence The LayoffsAdditionally, we think that management is well aware of these problems. Musk's 'bad feeling' about the economy? The layoffs? A potential cost-cutting measure to support cash generation through a tougher time. Tesla isn't unique in laying off employees. If you've been tracking the news, Big Tech in general has been finding reasons to reduce headcount.We think fundamentally, management is planning ahead of the growth cliff by reducing headcount now, a move that we think will save money and agony over the medium term.Long-Term Story Intact, But We Question Terminal MarginsOver the long haul, the story is still pretty clear on Tesla. We continue to believe they have the best product, technology, infrastructure, and brand in the BEV market. A BEV market that is still very early in its adoption curve, and a market Tesla is very early in fully capturing across the use-case spectrum (trucks, semis, compacts, etc.)We think that as new order flow cools, and Tesla works through its existing backlog, investors will have to digest a period of materially slower revenue and deliveries growth. This is to be expected when you sell $50,000+ electric vehicles into a slower demand environment.Over the long-haul, we continue to applaud Tesla's technology lead (particularly in manufacturing and cell tech, as well as cell-to-pack integration), solid brand (default name in BEVs), infrastructure (massive supercharging grid), and product design.On the margin front, as a thought exercise however, we are slightly concerned. Based on prior work we have done, and work we have seen float around the sell-side and third-party shops, teardown analyses of your average Model 3 indicate that cost of manufacturing is ~$35K-~$36K per unit (prior to input cost inflation). While Tesla is able to sell at a ripe markup right now because of (a.) tight supply, (b.) the built-in excuse (to the consumer) of inflation, and (c.) a massive order backlog, we question the long-term strategic direction. Assuming Tesla cannot materially reduce cost per unit of manufacturing, would they maintain margins and sacrifice volume and thus deliveries and revenue growth, or reduce margins to 'normalized' levels to pick up growth volume. Our bet would be on the latter, considering how mission-driven Musk & Co. are on accelerating broader market adoption at least over the long-term. Over the short-term, we think Musk's recent strategic direction would emphasize a more defensive strategy.We think to fuel mass market EV adopt, long-term, Tesla needs to move down market. Additionally, we think gross margins might have to come in as inflation comes in and the supply-demand dynamic rebalances.ValuationIn terms of valuation, we think the stock is difficult to price. In the environment we are in, where the macro picture is uncertain and rates are rising at all durations of the yield curve, multiples are compressing pretty materially. When we explore what a base case valuation for the stock is, you have to keep in mind the uncertainty profile on the business right now: we don't know what steady-state gross margins are, we don't know where optionality stands (autonomy+energy in particular), and there's a lot of value creation already priced in.It's hard to give reasonable estimates for out-year numbers because there are a lot of moving parts to juggle. We'll use the year 2030 as a basic reference number. What does 2030 BEV adoption look like relative to the overall auto market? What use cases (semis, pickups, etc.) are yet to be covered. What is Tesla's market share within BEVs? Terminal CapEx requirements?It's a lot, and hard to predict reasonably.For our part, we think the environment is fundamentally too uncertain. We're going to use average consensus estimates and the high and low estimates on the street to give investors a general valuation framework for what we would consider the reasonable base case, bull case, and bear case.Base Case: Our base case look takes cons. '22 earnings and puts a 45x multiple on them. Pretty simple, we think the multiple is relatively warranted assuming Tesla can continue to grow as viciously as they have been. If Tesla can hit a high 70s growth pace for full year, in-line with consensus, then you're looking at ~$545 on the share price assuming 45x.Bear Case: Our bear case look implies the bottom end of the sell-side earnings range for '22, which implies closer to high 30s earnings growth for the full year. You put a multiple closer to 30x to reflect a higher medium-term risk profile, and you're looking at ~$279/share.Bull Case: Our bull case looks at the top end of '22 sell-side earnings estimates, which implies earnings growth of ~113% y/y. We use a 75x multiple to reflect this more optimistic long-term view, and to reflect the optimism of a soft-landing scenario. That gets us to $1,085/share in the bull case.These are some pretty loose scenarios, and these aren't driven by any proprietary model work. Right now, because of the supply chain dynamics and the backlog depletion dynamics, it seems nearly impossible to make accurate forecasts to fit the reality of the company right now. As a result, we are using our base, bear, and bull case multiples and price targets to reflect our qualitative sentiment on the state of the company and the risks it faces medium term.ConclusionIn conclusion, while we have generally liked the business model, the product, and the technology, we are very cautious on the stock. We see a growth cliff emerging on the horizon, and would wait to buy shares until after growth decelerates. That, according to some checks, could be as soon as the next couple weeks when Tesla reports 2Q deliveries. Maybe it's later on as the company works through its massive order backlog. Nevertheless, we are cautious. Reiterating Sell, all targets reduced.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"TSLA":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":398,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":814586872,"gmtCreate":1630844691496,"gmtModify":1676530404661,"author":{"id":"3562815822807212","authorId":"3562815822807212","name":"Favian","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3c9db4d731960e756da0c07d6b32f34a","crmLevel":6,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3562815822807212","idStr":"3562815822807212"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"okie","listText":"okie","text":"okie","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":7,"commentSize":2,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/814586872","repostId":"1157895022","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1157895022","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1630810619,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1157895022?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2021-09-05 10:56","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Beat the market with this quant system that’s very bullish on stocks at record highs","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1157895022","media":"MarketWatch","summary":"Vance Howard’s HCM Tactical Growth Fund moves you in and out of the stock market when prudent to do ","content":"<blockquote>\n <b>Vance Howard’s HCM Tactical Growth Fund moves you in and out of the stock market when prudent to do so. So far his team of computer scientists’ strategy has paid off.</b>\n</blockquote>\n<p>Imagine you had a money-making machine to harvest gains in the stock market while you sat back to enjoy life.</p>\n<p>That’s everyone’s dream, right? Investor Vance Howard thinks he’s found it.</p>\n<p>Howard and his small army of computer programmers atHoward Capital Managementin Roswell, Ga., have a quantitative system that posts great returns.</p>\n<p>His HCM Tactical Growth Fund&nbsp;HCMGX,+0.35%beats its Russell 1000&nbsp;benchmark index and large-blend fund category by 8.5-10.4 percentage points annualized over the past five years, according to Morningstar. That is no small feat, and not only because it has to overcome a 2.22% fee. Beating the market is simply not easy. His HCM Dividend Sector PlusHCMQX,-0.05%) and HCM Income PlusHCMLX,+0.30%funds post similar outperformance.</p>\n<p>There are drawbacks, which I detail below. (Among them: Potentially long stretches of underperformance and regular tax bills.) But first, what can we learn from this winner?</p>\n<p>So-called quants never share all the details of their proprietary systems, but Howard shares a lot, as you’ll see. And this Texas rancher has a lot of good advice based on “horse sense” — not surprising, given his infectious passion for the markets, and his three decades of experience as a pro.</p>\n<p>Here are five lessons, 12 exchange traded funds (ETFs) and four stocks to consider, from a recent interview with him.</p>\n<p><b>Lesson #1: Don’t be emotional</b></p>\n<p>It’s no surprise so many people do poorly in the market. Evolution has programmed us to fail. For survival, we’ve learned to run from things that frightens us. And crave more of things that are pleasurable — like sweets or fats to store calories ahead of what might be a long stretch without food. But in the market, acting on the emotions of fear and greed invariably make us do the wrong thing at the wrong time. Sell at the bottom, buy at the top.</p>\n<p>Likewise, we’re programmed to believe being with the crowd brings safety. If you’re a zebra on the Savanna, you are more likely to get picked off by a predator if you go it alone. The problem here is being part of a crowd — and crowd psychology — dumb us down to a purely emotional level. This is why people in crowds do terrible things they would never do on their own. It doesn’t matter how smart you are. When you join a crowd, you lose a lot of IQ points. Base emotions take over.</p>\n<p>To do well in the market, you have to counteract these tendencies. “One of the biggest mistakes individual investors and money managers make is getting emotional,” says Howard. “Let your emotions go.”</p>\n<p><b>Lesson #2: Have a system and stick to it</b></p>\n<p>To exorcise emotion, have a system. “And don’t second guess it,” says Howard. “This keeps you from letting the pandemic or Afghanistan scare you out of the market.” He calls his system the HCM-BuyLine. It is basically a momentum and trend-following system — which often works well in the markets.</p>\n<p>The HCM-BuyLine basically works like this. First, rather than use the S&amp;P 500SPX,-0.03%or the Dow Jones Industrial AverageDJIA,-0.21%,Howard blends several stock indices to create his own index. Then he uses a moving average that tells him whether the market is in an uptrend or downtrend.</p>\n<p>When the moving average drops 3.5%, he sells 35%. If it drops 6.5%, he sells another 35%. He rarely goes to 100% cash.</p>\n<p>“If the BuyLine is positive, we will stay long no matter what,” he says. “We take all the emotion out of the equation by letting the math decide.”</p>\n<p>Right now, it’s bullish. (More on this below.)</p>\n<p>Your system also has to tell you when to get back in.</p>\n<p>“That’s where most people screw up,” he says. “They get out of the market, and they don’t know when to get back in.” The HCM-BuyLine gives a buy signal when his custom index trades above its moving average for six consecutive sessions, and then goes on to trade above the high hit during those six days.</p>\n<p>You don’t need a system that calls exact market tops or bottoms. Instead, the BuyLine keeps Howard out of down markets 85% of the time, and in for 85% of the good times.</p>\n<p>“If we can do that consistently, we have superior returns and a less stressful life,” he says. “Being all in during a bad tape is no fun.”</p>\n<p>His system is slow to get him out of the market, but quick to get him back in. Not even a 10% correction will necessarily move him out. He’s often buying those pullbacks. Getting back in fast makes sense, because recoveries off bottoms tend to happen fast.</p>\n<p>“The HCM-BuyLine takes all the emotion out of the process,” says Howard.</p>\n<p><b>Lesson #3: Don’t fight the tape</b></p>\n<p>This concept is one of the core pieces of wisdom from Marty Zweig’s classic book, “Winning on Wall Street.”</p>\n<p>“You have to stay on the right side of market,” agrees Howard. “If you try to trade long in a bad market, it is painful.”</p>\n<p>In other words, don’t try to be a hero.</p>\n<p>“Sometimes, not losing money is where you want to be,” he says.</p>\n<p>Likewise, don’t turn cautious just because the market hits new highs — like now. You should love new highs, because it is a sign of market strength that may likely endure.</p>\n<p><b>Lesson #4: Keep it simple</b></p>\n<p>As you’ll see below, Howard doesn’t use esoteric instruments such as derivatives, swaps or index options. He doesn’t even trade foreign stocks or currencies. This is refreshing for individual investors, because we have a harder time accessing those tools.</p>\n<p>“You don’t have to trade crazy stuff,” he says. “You can trade plain-vanilla ETFs and beat everybody out there.”</p>\n<p><b>Lesson #5: How to trade the current market</b></p>\n<p>First, be long.</p>\n<p>“The HCM-BuyLine is very positive. We are 100% in,” says Howard. “The market is broadening out. It is getting pretty exciting. We do not see it turn around any time soon. We are buying pullbacks.”</p>\n<p>One bullish signal is all the cash on the sidelines. “If there is any relief in Covid, we may see a big rally. We may end up with a great fall [season].”</p>\n<p>Howard uses momentum indicators to select stocks and ETFs, too. For sectors he favors the following.</p>\n<p>He likes health care, tradable through the iShares US HealthcareIYH,-0.04%and ProShares Ultra Health CareRXL,+0.12%ETFs. He’s turning more bullish on biotech, which he plays via the iShares Biotechnology ETFIBB,-0.11%.</p>\n<p>He likes consumer discretionary tradable through the iShares US Consumer ServicesIYC,-0.30%,and airlines via US Global JetsJETS,-1.17%.He also likes tech exposure via the Invesco QQQ TrustQQQ,+0.31%,iShares US TechnologyIYW,+0.50%and&nbsp;iShares SemiconductorSOXX,+0.75%.</p>\n<p>He likes small-caps via the Vanguard Small-Cap Growth Index FundVBK,+0.07%.And convertible bonds via SPDR Bloomberg Barclays Convertible SecuritiesCWB,+0.64%and iShares Convertible BondICVT,+0.37%.</p>\n<p>As for individual names, he singles out MicrosoftMSFT,-0.00%and AppleAAPL,+0.42%in tech, as well as Amazon.comAMZN,+0.43%and TeslaTSLA,+0.16%.</p>\n<p>Also consider Howard’s two ETFs: The HCM Defender 100 IndexQQH,+0.62%and HCM Defender 500 IndexLGH,+1.32%.</p>\n<p>He prefers to add to holdings on 1%-3% dips.</p>\n<p><b>A few drawbacks</b></p>\n<p>His HCM Tactical Growth fund has a history of posting two-year stretches of underperformance of 1.5% to 8.8%, since it was launched in 2015. The fund then came roaring back to net the very positive five-year outperformance cited above. Investing in his system can require patience.</p>\n<p>Every manager, including Warren Buffett, can have a stretch of underperformance, says Howard.</p>\n<p>“We are in the odds game,” he says. “Even in the odds game, you can have a bad hand or two thrown at you.”</p>\n<p>Another challenge is the high turnover, which is 140% a year for Tactical Growth. This means Uncle Sam takes a big cut in the good years. So if you buy Howard’s funds, you may want to do so in a tax-protected account.</p>","source":"lsy1603348471595","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Beat the market with this quant system that’s very bullish on stocks at record highs</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nBeat the market with this quant system that’s very bullish on stocks at record highs\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-09-05 10:56 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://www.marketwatch.com/story/beat-the-market-with-this-quant-system-thats-very-bullish-on-stocks-at-record-highs-11630761531?mod=home-page><strong>MarketWatch</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>Vance Howard’s HCM Tactical Growth Fund moves you in and out of the stock market when prudent to do so. So far his team of computer scientists’ strategy has paid off.\n\nImagine you had a money-making ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://www.marketwatch.com/story/beat-the-market-with-this-quant-system-thats-very-bullish-on-stocks-at-record-highs-11630761531?mod=home-page\">Source Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"SPY":"标普500ETF",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite",".DJI":"道琼斯"},"source_url":"https://www.marketwatch.com/story/beat-the-market-with-this-quant-system-thats-very-bullish-on-stocks-at-record-highs-11630761531?mod=home-page","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1157895022","content_text":"Vance Howard’s HCM Tactical Growth Fund moves you in and out of the stock market when prudent to do so. So far his team of computer scientists’ strategy has paid off.\n\nImagine you had a money-making machine to harvest gains in the stock market while you sat back to enjoy life.\nThat’s everyone’s dream, right? Investor Vance Howard thinks he’s found it.\nHoward and his small army of computer programmers atHoward Capital Managementin Roswell, Ga., have a quantitative system that posts great returns.\nHis HCM Tactical Growth Fund HCMGX,+0.35%beats its Russell 1000 benchmark index and large-blend fund category by 8.5-10.4 percentage points annualized over the past five years, according to Morningstar. That is no small feat, and not only because it has to overcome a 2.22% fee. Beating the market is simply not easy. His HCM Dividend Sector PlusHCMQX,-0.05%) and HCM Income PlusHCMLX,+0.30%funds post similar outperformance.\nThere are drawbacks, which I detail below. (Among them: Potentially long stretches of underperformance and regular tax bills.) But first, what can we learn from this winner?\nSo-called quants never share all the details of their proprietary systems, but Howard shares a lot, as you’ll see. And this Texas rancher has a lot of good advice based on “horse sense” — not surprising, given his infectious passion for the markets, and his three decades of experience as a pro.\nHere are five lessons, 12 exchange traded funds (ETFs) and four stocks to consider, from a recent interview with him.\nLesson #1: Don’t be emotional\nIt’s no surprise so many people do poorly in the market. Evolution has programmed us to fail. For survival, we’ve learned to run from things that frightens us. And crave more of things that are pleasurable — like sweets or fats to store calories ahead of what might be a long stretch without food. But in the market, acting on the emotions of fear and greed invariably make us do the wrong thing at the wrong time. Sell at the bottom, buy at the top.\nLikewise, we’re programmed to believe being with the crowd brings safety. If you’re a zebra on the Savanna, you are more likely to get picked off by a predator if you go it alone. The problem here is being part of a crowd — and crowd psychology — dumb us down to a purely emotional level. This is why people in crowds do terrible things they would never do on their own. It doesn’t matter how smart you are. When you join a crowd, you lose a lot of IQ points. Base emotions take over.\nTo do well in the market, you have to counteract these tendencies. “One of the biggest mistakes individual investors and money managers make is getting emotional,” says Howard. “Let your emotions go.”\nLesson #2: Have a system and stick to it\nTo exorcise emotion, have a system. “And don’t second guess it,” says Howard. “This keeps you from letting the pandemic or Afghanistan scare you out of the market.” He calls his system the HCM-BuyLine. It is basically a momentum and trend-following system — which often works well in the markets.\nThe HCM-BuyLine basically works like this. First, rather than use the S&P 500SPX,-0.03%or the Dow Jones Industrial AverageDJIA,-0.21%,Howard blends several stock indices to create his own index. Then he uses a moving average that tells him whether the market is in an uptrend or downtrend.\nWhen the moving average drops 3.5%, he sells 35%. If it drops 6.5%, he sells another 35%. He rarely goes to 100% cash.\n“If the BuyLine is positive, we will stay long no matter what,” he says. “We take all the emotion out of the equation by letting the math decide.”\nRight now, it’s bullish. (More on this below.)\nYour system also has to tell you when to get back in.\n“That’s where most people screw up,” he says. “They get out of the market, and they don’t know when to get back in.” The HCM-BuyLine gives a buy signal when his custom index trades above its moving average for six consecutive sessions, and then goes on to trade above the high hit during those six days.\nYou don’t need a system that calls exact market tops or bottoms. Instead, the BuyLine keeps Howard out of down markets 85% of the time, and in for 85% of the good times.\n“If we can do that consistently, we have superior returns and a less stressful life,” he says. “Being all in during a bad tape is no fun.”\nHis system is slow to get him out of the market, but quick to get him back in. Not even a 10% correction will necessarily move him out. He’s often buying those pullbacks. Getting back in fast makes sense, because recoveries off bottoms tend to happen fast.\n“The HCM-BuyLine takes all the emotion out of the process,” says Howard.\nLesson #3: Don’t fight the tape\nThis concept is one of the core pieces of wisdom from Marty Zweig’s classic book, “Winning on Wall Street.”\n“You have to stay on the right side of market,” agrees Howard. “If you try to trade long in a bad market, it is painful.”\nIn other words, don’t try to be a hero.\n“Sometimes, not losing money is where you want to be,” he says.\nLikewise, don’t turn cautious just because the market hits new highs — like now. You should love new highs, because it is a sign of market strength that may likely endure.\nLesson #4: Keep it simple\nAs you’ll see below, Howard doesn’t use esoteric instruments such as derivatives, swaps or index options. He doesn’t even trade foreign stocks or currencies. This is refreshing for individual investors, because we have a harder time accessing those tools.\n“You don’t have to trade crazy stuff,” he says. “You can trade plain-vanilla ETFs and beat everybody out there.”\nLesson #5: How to trade the current market\nFirst, be long.\n“The HCM-BuyLine is very positive. We are 100% in,” says Howard. “The market is broadening out. It is getting pretty exciting. We do not see it turn around any time soon. We are buying pullbacks.”\nOne bullish signal is all the cash on the sidelines. “If there is any relief in Covid, we may see a big rally. We may end up with a great fall [season].”\nHoward uses momentum indicators to select stocks and ETFs, too. For sectors he favors the following.\nHe likes health care, tradable through the iShares US HealthcareIYH,-0.04%and ProShares Ultra Health CareRXL,+0.12%ETFs. He’s turning more bullish on biotech, which he plays via the iShares Biotechnology ETFIBB,-0.11%.\nHe likes consumer discretionary tradable through the iShares US Consumer ServicesIYC,-0.30%,and airlines via US Global JetsJETS,-1.17%.He also likes tech exposure via the Invesco QQQ TrustQQQ,+0.31%,iShares US TechnologyIYW,+0.50%and iShares SemiconductorSOXX,+0.75%.\nHe likes small-caps via the Vanguard Small-Cap Growth Index FundVBK,+0.07%.And convertible bonds via SPDR Bloomberg Barclays Convertible SecuritiesCWB,+0.64%and iShares Convertible BondICVT,+0.37%.\nAs for individual names, he singles out MicrosoftMSFT,-0.00%and AppleAAPL,+0.42%in tech, as well as Amazon.comAMZN,+0.43%and TeslaTSLA,+0.16%.\nAlso consider Howard’s two ETFs: The HCM Defender 100 IndexQQH,+0.62%and HCM Defender 500 IndexLGH,+1.32%.\nHe prefers to add to holdings on 1%-3% dips.\nA few drawbacks\nHis HCM Tactical Growth fund has a history of posting two-year stretches of underperformance of 1.5% to 8.8%, since it was launched in 2015. The fund then came roaring back to net the very positive five-year outperformance cited above. Investing in his system can require patience.\nEvery manager, including Warren Buffett, can have a stretch of underperformance, says Howard.\n“We are in the odds game,” he says. “Even in the odds game, you can have a bad hand or two thrown at you.”\nAnother challenge is the high turnover, which is 140% a year for Tactical Growth. This means Uncle Sam takes a big cut in the good years. So if you buy Howard’s funds, you may want to do so in a tax-protected account.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{".IXIC":0.9,".SPX":0.9,"SPY":0.9,".DJI":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":602,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":830274020,"gmtCreate":1629078642760,"gmtModify":1676529922535,"author":{"id":"3562815822807212","authorId":"3562815822807212","name":"Favian","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3c9db4d731960e756da0c07d6b32f34a","crmLevel":6,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3562815822807212","idStr":"3562815822807212"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"okay","listText":"okay","text":"okay","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":7,"commentSize":2,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/830274020","repostId":"1129589874","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1129589874","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1629067868,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1129589874?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2021-08-16 06:51","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Nvidia, Tencent,Walmart, Target and Other Stocks to Watch This Week","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1129589874","media":"Barrons","summary":"It’s the late innings of second-quarter earnings season, with retailers ready to step up to the plate. Walmart and Home Depot report on Tuesday, followed by Lowe’s, Target, and TJX on Wednesday. Kohl’s, Macy’s, BJ’s Wholesale, and L Brands are Thursday’s retail highlights, then Foot Locker closes the week on Friday.The Census Bureau’s July retail sales data for July is also out this week, on Tuesday. Economists on average are forecasting a 0.2% seasonally adjusted increase last month, after a 0.","content":"<p>It’s the late innings of second-quarter earnings season, with retailers ready to step up to the plate. Walmart and Home Depot report on Tuesday, followed by Lowe’s, Target, and TJX on Wednesday.&nbsp;Kohl’s, Macy’s, BJ’s Wholesale, and L Brands are Thursday’s retail highlights, then Foot Locker closes the week on Friday.</p>\n<p>The Census Bureau’s July retail sales data for July is also out this week, on Tuesday. Economists on average are forecasting a&nbsp;0.2% seasonally adjusted increase last month, after a 0.6% rise in June.</p>\n<p>Major non-retail companies releasing results this week include Pandora and&nbsp;Krispy Kreme&nbsp;on Tuesday, followed by a busy Wednesday:Nvidia,Tencent Holdings,CiscoSystems,Analog Devices,and&nbsp;Lumentum Holdings&nbsp;all report.Applied Materials&nbsp;goes on Thursday and Deere closes the week on Friday.</p>\n<p>Economic data out this week include several housing-market metrics:&nbsp;The National Association of Home Builders’ NAHB/Wells Fargo Housing Market Index for August on Tuesday and the Census Bureau’s new residential construction report for July on Wednesday.</p>\n<p>Also on Wednesday, the&nbsp;Federal Reserve’s monetary policy committee releases the minutes from its last meeting in late July. Then, the&nbsp;Conference Board publishes its Leading Economic Index for July on Thursday.</p>\n<p><b>Monday 8/16</b></p>\n<p>Tencent Music Entertainment Group,Tokyo Electron,and&nbsp;Clear Secure&nbsp;are among the companies holding earnings conference calls.</p>\n<p><b>The Federal Reserve</b>&nbsp;Bank of New York releases its Empire State Manufacturing Survey for August. The consensus estimate is for a 26.5 reading. That compares with a record high of 43.0 in July, when the general business conditions index rose 26 points.</p>\n<p><b>Tuesday 8/17</b></p>\n<p>BHP, Walmart, Home Depot,Agilent Technologies,Pandora, and Krispy Kreme are among the companies hosting earnings conference calls.</p>\n<p>America’s Car-Mart,Jack Henry &amp; Associates,and&nbsp;La-Z-Boy&nbsp;report financial results after the market closes and will hold earnings calls the following morning, Aug. 18.</p>\n<p><b>The Federal Reserve</b>&nbsp;releases capacity utilization in the industrial sector for July. Consensus calls for a 75.7% reading, little changed from June’s 75.4% reading. Industrial production is seen rising 0.5% from June’s 0.4% seasonally adjusted increase.</p>\n<p><b>The National Association</b>&nbsp;of Home Builders releases its NAHB/Wells Fargo Housing Market Index for August. Economists forecast an 80 reading, the same as in July. The index is down from its all-time high of 90 set in November.</p>\n<p><b>Federal Reserve Board</b>&nbsp;Chairman Jay Powell will host a virtual town hall with educators and students.</p>\n<p><b>The Census Bureau reports</b>&nbsp;retail sales data for July. Expectations are for a 0.3% seasonally adjusted month-over-month decrease, following a 0.6% rise in June. Excluding autos, spending is seen rising 0.2%, compared with a 1.3% rise in the previous month.</p>\n<p><b>Wednesday 8/18</b></p>\n<p><b>The Federal Open Market</b>&nbsp;Committee releases the minutes from its late-July monetary-policy meeting.</p>\n<p>Cisco Systems, Lowe’s, Target, TJX, Tencent Holdings,Brinker International,Analog Devices,Synopsys,Lumentum Holdings, and Nvidia host earnings conference calls.</p>\n<p><b>The Census Bureau’s</b>new residential construction report for July is expected to show the seasonally adjusted annual rate of housing starts at 1.610 million, down from June’s 1.643 million. Housing starts hit a postpandemic peak of 1.73 million in March.</p>\n<p><b>Thursday 8/19</b></p>\n<p>BJ’s Wholesale,<b>L Brands</b>, Applied Materials,Ross Stores,Estée Lauder,Kohl’s, Macy’s,Performance Food Group,Petco Health and Wellness,and Farfetch host earnings conference calls.</p>\n<p><b>The Conference Board</b>releases its Leading Economic Index for July. The LEI is expected to increase 0.7% month over month, after gaining 0.7% in June.</p>\n<p><b>Friday 8/20</b></p>\n<p>Deere and Foot Locker host conference calls to discuss financial results.</p>","source":"lsy1601382232898","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Nvidia, Tencent,Walmart, Target and Other Stocks to Watch This Week</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nNvidia, Tencent,Walmart, Target and Other Stocks to Watch This Week\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-08-16 06:51 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://www.barrons.com/articles/stocks-to-watch-this-week-51629054047?mod=hp_LEAD_2><strong>Barrons</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>It’s the late innings of second-quarter earnings season, with retailers ready to step up to the plate. Walmart and Home Depot report on Tuesday, followed by Lowe’s, Target, and TJX on Wednesday. Kohl’...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://www.barrons.com/articles/stocks-to-watch-this-week-51629054047?mod=hp_LEAD_2\">Source Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{".SPX":"S&P 500 Index",".DJI":"道琼斯","TME":"腾讯音乐","WMT":"沃尔玛",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite","TGT":"塔吉特","NVDA":"英伟达"},"source_url":"https://www.barrons.com/articles/stocks-to-watch-this-week-51629054047?mod=hp_LEAD_2","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1129589874","content_text":"It’s the late innings of second-quarter earnings season, with retailers ready to step up to the plate. Walmart and Home Depot report on Tuesday, followed by Lowe’s, Target, and TJX on Wednesday. Kohl’s, Macy’s, BJ’s Wholesale, and L Brands are Thursday’s retail highlights, then Foot Locker closes the week on Friday.\nThe Census Bureau’s July retail sales data for July is also out this week, on Tuesday. Economists on average are forecasting a 0.2% seasonally adjusted increase last month, after a 0.6% rise in June.\nMajor non-retail companies releasing results this week include Pandora and Krispy Kreme on Tuesday, followed by a busy Wednesday:Nvidia,Tencent Holdings,CiscoSystems,Analog Devices,and Lumentum Holdings all report.Applied Materials goes on Thursday and Deere closes the week on Friday.\nEconomic data out this week include several housing-market metrics: The National Association of Home Builders’ NAHB/Wells Fargo Housing Market Index for August on Tuesday and the Census Bureau’s new residential construction report for July on Wednesday.\nAlso on Wednesday, the Federal Reserve’s monetary policy committee releases the minutes from its last meeting in late July. Then, the Conference Board publishes its Leading Economic Index for July on Thursday.\nMonday 8/16\nTencent Music Entertainment Group,Tokyo Electron,and Clear Secure are among the companies holding earnings conference calls.\nThe Federal Reserve Bank of New York releases its Empire State Manufacturing Survey for August. The consensus estimate is for a 26.5 reading. That compares with a record high of 43.0 in July, when the general business conditions index rose 26 points.\nTuesday 8/17\nBHP, Walmart, Home Depot,Agilent Technologies,Pandora, and Krispy Kreme are among the companies hosting earnings conference calls.\nAmerica’s Car-Mart,Jack Henry & Associates,and La-Z-Boy report financial results after the market closes and will hold earnings calls the following morning, Aug. 18.\nThe Federal Reserve releases capacity utilization in the industrial sector for July. Consensus calls for a 75.7% reading, little changed from June’s 75.4% reading. Industrial production is seen rising 0.5% from June’s 0.4% seasonally adjusted increase.\nThe National Association of Home Builders releases its NAHB/Wells Fargo Housing Market Index for August. Economists forecast an 80 reading, the same as in July. The index is down from its all-time high of 90 set in November.\nFederal Reserve Board Chairman Jay Powell will host a virtual town hall with educators and students.\nThe Census Bureau reports retail sales data for July. Expectations are for a 0.3% seasonally adjusted month-over-month decrease, following a 0.6% rise in June. Excluding autos, spending is seen rising 0.2%, compared with a 1.3% rise in the previous month.\nWednesday 8/18\nThe Federal Open Market Committee releases the minutes from its late-July monetary-policy meeting.\nCisco Systems, Lowe’s, Target, TJX, Tencent Holdings,Brinker International,Analog Devices,Synopsys,Lumentum Holdings, and Nvidia host earnings conference calls.\nThe Census Bureau’snew residential construction report for July is expected to show the seasonally adjusted annual rate of housing starts at 1.610 million, down from June’s 1.643 million. Housing starts hit a postpandemic peak of 1.73 million in March.\nThursday 8/19\nBJ’s Wholesale,L Brands, Applied Materials,Ross Stores,Estée Lauder,Kohl’s, Macy’s,Performance Food Group,Petco Health and Wellness,and Farfetch host earnings conference calls.\nThe Conference Boardreleases its Leading Economic Index for July. The LEI is expected to increase 0.7% month over month, after gaining 0.7% in June.\nFriday 8/20\nDeere and Foot Locker host conference calls to discuss financial results.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"TGT":0.9,".IXIC":0.9,"WMT":0.9,"NVDA":0.9,"TME":0.9,".SPX":0.9,".DJI":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":547,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":107892205,"gmtCreate":1620460889207,"gmtModify":1704344077312,"author":{"id":"3562815822807212","authorId":"3562815822807212","name":"Favian","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3c9db4d731960e756da0c07d6b32f34a","crmLevel":6,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3562815822807212","idStr":"3562815822807212"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"cool","listText":"cool","text":"cool","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":7,"commentSize":2,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/107892205","repostId":"1122089368","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1122089368","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1620457397,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1122089368?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2021-05-08 15:03","market":"us","language":"en","title":"What Happens to Stocks and Cryptocurrencies When the Fed Stops Raining Money?","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1122089368","media":"The Wall Street Journal","summary":"To veterans of financial bubbles, there is plenty familiar about the present. Stock valuations are t","content":"<p>To veterans of financial bubbles, there is plenty familiar about the present. Stock valuations are their richest since the dot-com bubble in 2000. Home prices are back to their pre-financial crisis peak. Risky companies can borrow at the lowest rates on record. Individual investors are pouring money into green energy and cryptocurrency.</p><p>This boom has some legitimate explanations, from the advances in digital commerce to fiscally greased growth that will likely be the strongest since 1983.</p><p>But there is one driver above all: the Federal Reserve. Easy monetary policy has regularly fueled financial booms, and it is exceptionally easy now. The Fed has kept interest rates near zero for the past year and signaled rates won’t change for at least two more years. It is buying hundreds of billions of dollars of bonds. As a result, the 10-year Treasury bond yield is well below inflation—that is, real yields are deeply negative —for only the second time in 40 years.</p><p>There are good reasons why rates are so low. The Fed acted in response to a pandemic that at its most intense threatened even more damage than the 2007-09 financial crisis. Yet in great part thanks to the Fed and Congress, which has passed some $5 trillion in fiscal stimulus, this recovery looks much healthier than the last. That could undermine the reasons for such low rates, threatening the underpinnings of market.</p><p>“Equity markets at a minimum are priced to perfection on the assumption rates will be low for a long time,” said Harvard University economist Jeremy Stein, who served as a Fed governor alongside now-chairman Jerome Powell. “And certainly you get the sense the Fed is trying really hard to say, ‘Everything is fine, we’re in no rush to raise rates.’ But while I don’t think we’re headed for sustained high inflation it’s completely possible we’ll have several quarters of hot readings on inflation.”</p><p>Since stocks’ valuations are only justified if interest rates stay extremely low, how do they reprice if the Fed has to tighten monetary policy to combat inflation and bond yields rise one to 1.5 percentage points, he asked. “You could get a serious correction in asset prices.”</p><p><b>‘A bit frothy’</b></p><p>The Fed has been here before. In the late 1990s its willingness to cut rates in response to the Asian financial crisis and the near collapse of the hedge fund Long-Term Capital Management was seen by some as an implicit market backstop, inflating the ensuing dot-com bubble. Its low-rate policy in the wake of that collapsed bubble was then blamed for driving up housing prices. Both times Fed officials defended their policy, arguing that to raise rates (or not cut them) simply to prevent bubbles would compromise their main goals of low unemployment and inflation, and do more harm than letting the bubble deflate on its own.</p><p>As for this year, in a report this week the central bank warned asset “valuations are generally high” and “vulnerable to significant declines should investor risk appetite fall, progress on containing the virus disappoint, or the recovery stall.” On April 28 Mr. Powell acknowledged markets look “a bit frothy” and the Fed might be one of the reasons: “I won’t say it has nothing to do with monetary policy, but it has a tremendous amount to do with vaccination and reopening of the economy.” But he gave no hint the Fed was about to dial back its stimulus: “The economy is a long way from our goals.” A Labor Department report Friday showing that far fewer jobs were created in April than Wall Street expected underlined that.</p><p>The Fed’s choices are heavily influenced by the financial crisis. While the Fed cut rates to near zero and bought bonds then as well, it was battling powerful headwinds as households, banks, and governments sought to pay down debts. That held back spending and pushed inflation below the Fed’s 2% target. Deeper-seated forces such as aging populations also held down growth and interest rates, a combination some dubbed “secular stagnation.”</p><p>The pandemic shutdown a year ago triggered a hit to economic output that was initially worse than the financial crisis. But after two months, economic activity began to recover as restrictions eased and businesses adapted to social distancing. The Fed initiated new lending programs and Congress passed the $2.2 trillion Cares Act. Vaccines arrived sooner than expected. The U.S. economy is likely to hit its pre-pandemic size in the current quarter, two years faster than after the financial crisis.</p><p>And yet even as the outlook has improved, the fiscal and monetary taps remain wide open. Democrats first proposed an additional $3 trillion in stimulus last May when output was expected to fall 6% last year. It actually fell less than half that, but Democrats, after winning both the White House and Congress, pressed ahead with the same size stimulus.</p><p>The Fed began buying bonds in March, 2020 to counter chaotic conditions in markets. In late summer, with markets functioning normally, it extended the program while tilting the rationale toward keeping bond yields low.</p><p>At the same time it unveiled a new framework: After years of inflation running below 2%, it would aim to push inflation not just back to 2% but higher, so that over time average and expected inflation would both stabilize at 2%. To that end, it promised not to raise rates until full employment had been restored and inflation was 2% and headed higher. Officials predicted that would not happen before 2024 and have since stuck to that guidance despite a significantly improving outlook.</p><p><b>Running of the bulls</b></p><p>This injection of unprecedented monetary and fiscal stimulus into an economy already rebounding thanks to vaccinations is why Wall Street strategists are their most bullish on stocks since before the last financial crisis, according to a survey byBank of AmericaCorp.While profit forecasts have risen briskly, stocks have risen more. The S&amp;P 500 stock index now trades at about 22 times the coming year’s profits, according to FactSet, a level only exceeded at the peak of the dot-com boom in 2000.</p><p>Other asset markets are similarly stretched. Investors are willing to buy the bonds of junk-rated companies at the lowest yields since at least 1995, and the narrowest spread above safe Treasurys since 2007, according to Bloomberg Barclays data. Residential and commercial property prices, adjusted for inflation, are around the peak reached in 2006.</p><p>Stock and property valuations are more justifiable today than in 2000 or in 2006 because the returns on riskless Treasury bonds are so much lower. In that sense, the Fed’s policies are working precisely as intended: improving both the economic outlook, which is good for profits, housing demand, and corporate creditworthiness; and the appetite for risk.</p><p>Nonetheless, low rates are no longer sufficient to justify some asset valuations. Instead, bulls invoke alternative metrics.</p><p>Bank of America recently noted companies with relatively low carbon emissions and higher water efficiency earn higher valuations. These valuations aren’t the result of superior cash flow or profit prospects, but a tidal wave of funds invested according to environmental, social and governance, or ESG, criteria.</p><p>Conventional valuation is also useless for cryptocurrencies which earn no interest, rent or dividends. Instead, advocates claim digital currencies will displace the fiat currencies issued by central banks as a transaction medium and store of value. “Crypto has the potential to be as revolutionary and widely adopted as the internet,” claims the prospectus of the initial public offering of crypto exchangeCoinbase GlobalInc.,in language reminiscent of internet-related IPOs more than two decades earlier. Cryptocurrencies as of April 29 were worth more than $2 trillion, according to CoinDesk, an information service, roughly equivalent to all U.S. dollars in circulation.</p><p>Financial innovation is also at work, as it has been in past financial booms. Portfolio insurance, a strategy designed to hedge against market losses, amplified selling during the 1987 stock market crash. In the 1990s, internet stockbrokers fueled tech stocks and in the 2000s, subprime mortgage derivatives helped finance housing. The equivalent today are zero commission brokers such as Robinhood Markets Inc., fractional ownership and social media, all of which have empowered individual investors.</p><p>Such investors increasingly influence the overall market’s direction, according to a recent report by the Bank for International Settlements, a consortium of the world’s central banks. It found, for example, that since 2017 trading volume in exchange-traded funds that track the S&amp;P 500, a favorite of institutional investors, has flattened while the volume in its component stocks, which individual investors prefer, has climbed. Individuals, it noted, are more likely to buy a company’s shares for reasons unrelated to its underlying business—because, for example, its name is similar to another stock that is on the rise.</p><p>While such speculation is often blamed on the Fed, drawing a direct line is difficult. Not so with fiscal stimulus. Jim Bianco, the head of financial research firm Bianco Research, said flows into exchange-traded funds and mutual funds jumped in March as the Treasury distributed $1,400 stimulus checks. “The first thing you do with your check is deposit it in your account and in 2021 that’s your brokerage account,” said Mr. Bianco.</p><p><b>Facing the future</b></p><p>It’s impossible to predict how, or even whether, this all ends. It doesn’t have to: High-priced stocks could eventually earn the profits necessary to justify today’s valuations, especially with the economy’s current head of steam. In he meantime, more extreme pockets of speculation may collapse under their own weight as profits disappoint or competition emerges.</p><p>Bitcoin once threatened to displace the dollar; now numerous competitors purport to do the same.TeslaInc.was once about the only stock you could buy to bet on electric vehicles; now there is China’s NIO Inc.,NikolaCorp., andFiskerInc.,not to mention established manufacturers such as Volkswagen AG andGeneral MotorsCo.that are rolling out ever more electric models.</p><p>But for assets across the board to fall would likely involve some sort of macroeconomic event, such as a recession, financial crisis, or inflation.</p><p>The Fed report this past week said the virus remains the biggest threat to the economy and thus the financial system. April’s jobs disappointment was a reminder of how unsettled the economic outlook remains. Still, with the virus in retreat, a recession seems unlikely now. A financial crisis linked to some hidden fragility can’t be ruled out. Still, banks have so much capital and mortgage underwriting is so tight that something similar to the 2007-09 financial crisis, which began with defaulting mortgages, seems remote. If junk bonds, cryptocoins or tech stocks are bought primarily with borrowed money, a plunge in their values could precipitate a wave of forced selling, bankruptcies and potentially a crisis. But that doesn’t seem to have happened. The recent collapse of Archegos Capital Management from reversals on derivatives-based stock investments inflicted losses on its lenders. But it didn’t threaten their survival or trigger contagion to similarly situated firms.</p><p>“Where’s the second Archegos?” said Mr. Bianco. “There hasn’t been one yet.”</p><p>That leaves inflation. Fear of inflation is widespread now with shortages of semiconductors, lumber, and workers all putting upward pressure on prices and costs. Most forecasters, and the Fed, think those pressures will ease once the economy has reopened and normal spending patterns resume. Nonetheless, the difference between yields on regular and inflation-indexed bond yields suggest investors are expecting inflation in coming years to average about 2.5%. That is hardly a repeat of the 1970s, and compatible with the Fed’s new goal of average 2% inflation over the long term. Nonetheless, it would be a clear break from the sub-2% range of the last decade.</p><p>Slightly higher inflation would result in the Fed setting short-term interest rates also slightly higher, which need not hurt stock valuations. More worrisome: Long-term bond yields, which are critical to stock values, might rise significantly more. Since the late 1990s, bond and stock prices have tended to move in opposite directions. That is because when inflation isn’t a concern, economic shocks tend to drive both bond yields (which move in the opposite direction to prices) and stock prices down. Bonds thus act as an insurance policy against losses on stocks, for which investors are willing to accept lower yields. If inflation becomes a problem again, then bonds lose that insurance value and their yields will rise. In recent months that stock-bond correlation, in place for most of the last few decades, began to disappear, said Brian Sack, a former Fed economist who is now with hedge fund D.E. Shaw &amp; Co. LP. He attributes that, in part, to inflation concerns.</p><p>The many years since inflation dominated the financial landscape have led investors to price assets as if inflation never will have that sway again. They may be right. But if the unprecedented combination of monetary and fiscal stimulus succeeds in jolting the economy out of the last decade’s pattern, that complacency could prove quite costly.</p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>What Happens to Stocks and Cryptocurrencies When the Fed Stops Raining Money?</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nWhat Happens to Stocks and Cryptocurrencies When the Fed Stops Raining Money?\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-05-08 15:03 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://www.wsj.com/articles/what-happens-to-stocks-and-cryptocurrencies-when-the-fed-stops-raining-money-11620446420?mod=itp_wsj><strong>The Wall Street Journal</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>To veterans of financial bubbles, there is plenty familiar about the present. Stock valuations are their richest since the dot-com bubble in 2000. Home prices are back to their pre-financial crisis ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://www.wsj.com/articles/what-happens-to-stocks-and-cryptocurrencies-when-the-fed-stops-raining-money-11620446420?mod=itp_wsj\">Source Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{},"source_url":"https://www.wsj.com/articles/what-happens-to-stocks-and-cryptocurrencies-when-the-fed-stops-raining-money-11620446420?mod=itp_wsj","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1122089368","content_text":"To veterans of financial bubbles, there is plenty familiar about the present. Stock valuations are their richest since the dot-com bubble in 2000. Home prices are back to their pre-financial crisis peak. Risky companies can borrow at the lowest rates on record. Individual investors are pouring money into green energy and cryptocurrency.This boom has some legitimate explanations, from the advances in digital commerce to fiscally greased growth that will likely be the strongest since 1983.But there is one driver above all: the Federal Reserve. Easy monetary policy has regularly fueled financial booms, and it is exceptionally easy now. The Fed has kept interest rates near zero for the past year and signaled rates won’t change for at least two more years. It is buying hundreds of billions of dollars of bonds. As a result, the 10-year Treasury bond yield is well below inflation—that is, real yields are deeply negative —for only the second time in 40 years.There are good reasons why rates are so low. The Fed acted in response to a pandemic that at its most intense threatened even more damage than the 2007-09 financial crisis. Yet in great part thanks to the Fed and Congress, which has passed some $5 trillion in fiscal stimulus, this recovery looks much healthier than the last. That could undermine the reasons for such low rates, threatening the underpinnings of market.“Equity markets at a minimum are priced to perfection on the assumption rates will be low for a long time,” said Harvard University economist Jeremy Stein, who served as a Fed governor alongside now-chairman Jerome Powell. “And certainly you get the sense the Fed is trying really hard to say, ‘Everything is fine, we’re in no rush to raise rates.’ But while I don’t think we’re headed for sustained high inflation it’s completely possible we’ll have several quarters of hot readings on inflation.”Since stocks’ valuations are only justified if interest rates stay extremely low, how do they reprice if the Fed has to tighten monetary policy to combat inflation and bond yields rise one to 1.5 percentage points, he asked. “You could get a serious correction in asset prices.”‘A bit frothy’The Fed has been here before. In the late 1990s its willingness to cut rates in response to the Asian financial crisis and the near collapse of the hedge fund Long-Term Capital Management was seen by some as an implicit market backstop, inflating the ensuing dot-com bubble. Its low-rate policy in the wake of that collapsed bubble was then blamed for driving up housing prices. Both times Fed officials defended their policy, arguing that to raise rates (or not cut them) simply to prevent bubbles would compromise their main goals of low unemployment and inflation, and do more harm than letting the bubble deflate on its own.As for this year, in a report this week the central bank warned asset “valuations are generally high” and “vulnerable to significant declines should investor risk appetite fall, progress on containing the virus disappoint, or the recovery stall.” On April 28 Mr. Powell acknowledged markets look “a bit frothy” and the Fed might be one of the reasons: “I won’t say it has nothing to do with monetary policy, but it has a tremendous amount to do with vaccination and reopening of the economy.” But he gave no hint the Fed was about to dial back its stimulus: “The economy is a long way from our goals.” A Labor Department report Friday showing that far fewer jobs were created in April than Wall Street expected underlined that.The Fed’s choices are heavily influenced by the financial crisis. While the Fed cut rates to near zero and bought bonds then as well, it was battling powerful headwinds as households, banks, and governments sought to pay down debts. That held back spending and pushed inflation below the Fed’s 2% target. Deeper-seated forces such as aging populations also held down growth and interest rates, a combination some dubbed “secular stagnation.”The pandemic shutdown a year ago triggered a hit to economic output that was initially worse than the financial crisis. But after two months, economic activity began to recover as restrictions eased and businesses adapted to social distancing. The Fed initiated new lending programs and Congress passed the $2.2 trillion Cares Act. Vaccines arrived sooner than expected. The U.S. economy is likely to hit its pre-pandemic size in the current quarter, two years faster than after the financial crisis.And yet even as the outlook has improved, the fiscal and monetary taps remain wide open. Democrats first proposed an additional $3 trillion in stimulus last May when output was expected to fall 6% last year. It actually fell less than half that, but Democrats, after winning both the White House and Congress, pressed ahead with the same size stimulus.The Fed began buying bonds in March, 2020 to counter chaotic conditions in markets. In late summer, with markets functioning normally, it extended the program while tilting the rationale toward keeping bond yields low.At the same time it unveiled a new framework: After years of inflation running below 2%, it would aim to push inflation not just back to 2% but higher, so that over time average and expected inflation would both stabilize at 2%. To that end, it promised not to raise rates until full employment had been restored and inflation was 2% and headed higher. Officials predicted that would not happen before 2024 and have since stuck to that guidance despite a significantly improving outlook.Running of the bullsThis injection of unprecedented monetary and fiscal stimulus into an economy already rebounding thanks to vaccinations is why Wall Street strategists are their most bullish on stocks since before the last financial crisis, according to a survey byBank of AmericaCorp.While profit forecasts have risen briskly, stocks have risen more. The S&P 500 stock index now trades at about 22 times the coming year’s profits, according to FactSet, a level only exceeded at the peak of the dot-com boom in 2000.Other asset markets are similarly stretched. Investors are willing to buy the bonds of junk-rated companies at the lowest yields since at least 1995, and the narrowest spread above safe Treasurys since 2007, according to Bloomberg Barclays data. Residential and commercial property prices, adjusted for inflation, are around the peak reached in 2006.Stock and property valuations are more justifiable today than in 2000 or in 2006 because the returns on riskless Treasury bonds are so much lower. In that sense, the Fed’s policies are working precisely as intended: improving both the economic outlook, which is good for profits, housing demand, and corporate creditworthiness; and the appetite for risk.Nonetheless, low rates are no longer sufficient to justify some asset valuations. Instead, bulls invoke alternative metrics.Bank of America recently noted companies with relatively low carbon emissions and higher water efficiency earn higher valuations. These valuations aren’t the result of superior cash flow or profit prospects, but a tidal wave of funds invested according to environmental, social and governance, or ESG, criteria.Conventional valuation is also useless for cryptocurrencies which earn no interest, rent or dividends. Instead, advocates claim digital currencies will displace the fiat currencies issued by central banks as a transaction medium and store of value. “Crypto has the potential to be as revolutionary and widely adopted as the internet,” claims the prospectus of the initial public offering of crypto exchangeCoinbase GlobalInc.,in language reminiscent of internet-related IPOs more than two decades earlier. Cryptocurrencies as of April 29 were worth more than $2 trillion, according to CoinDesk, an information service, roughly equivalent to all U.S. dollars in circulation.Financial innovation is also at work, as it has been in past financial booms. Portfolio insurance, a strategy designed to hedge against market losses, amplified selling during the 1987 stock market crash. In the 1990s, internet stockbrokers fueled tech stocks and in the 2000s, subprime mortgage derivatives helped finance housing. The equivalent today are zero commission brokers such as Robinhood Markets Inc., fractional ownership and social media, all of which have empowered individual investors.Such investors increasingly influence the overall market’s direction, according to a recent report by the Bank for International Settlements, a consortium of the world’s central banks. It found, for example, that since 2017 trading volume in exchange-traded funds that track the S&P 500, a favorite of institutional investors, has flattened while the volume in its component stocks, which individual investors prefer, has climbed. Individuals, it noted, are more likely to buy a company’s shares for reasons unrelated to its underlying business—because, for example, its name is similar to another stock that is on the rise.While such speculation is often blamed on the Fed, drawing a direct line is difficult. Not so with fiscal stimulus. Jim Bianco, the head of financial research firm Bianco Research, said flows into exchange-traded funds and mutual funds jumped in March as the Treasury distributed $1,400 stimulus checks. “The first thing you do with your check is deposit it in your account and in 2021 that’s your brokerage account,” said Mr. Bianco.Facing the futureIt’s impossible to predict how, or even whether, this all ends. It doesn’t have to: High-priced stocks could eventually earn the profits necessary to justify today’s valuations, especially with the economy’s current head of steam. In he meantime, more extreme pockets of speculation may collapse under their own weight as profits disappoint or competition emerges.Bitcoin once threatened to displace the dollar; now numerous competitors purport to do the same.TeslaInc.was once about the only stock you could buy to bet on electric vehicles; now there is China’s NIO Inc.,NikolaCorp., andFiskerInc.,not to mention established manufacturers such as Volkswagen AG andGeneral MotorsCo.that are rolling out ever more electric models.But for assets across the board to fall would likely involve some sort of macroeconomic event, such as a recession, financial crisis, or inflation.The Fed report this past week said the virus remains the biggest threat to the economy and thus the financial system. April’s jobs disappointment was a reminder of how unsettled the economic outlook remains. Still, with the virus in retreat, a recession seems unlikely now. A financial crisis linked to some hidden fragility can’t be ruled out. Still, banks have so much capital and mortgage underwriting is so tight that something similar to the 2007-09 financial crisis, which began with defaulting mortgages, seems remote. If junk bonds, cryptocoins or tech stocks are bought primarily with borrowed money, a plunge in their values could precipitate a wave of forced selling, bankruptcies and potentially a crisis. But that doesn’t seem to have happened. The recent collapse of Archegos Capital Management from reversals on derivatives-based stock investments inflicted losses on its lenders. But it didn’t threaten their survival or trigger contagion to similarly situated firms.“Where’s the second Archegos?” said Mr. Bianco. “There hasn’t been one yet.”That leaves inflation. Fear of inflation is widespread now with shortages of semiconductors, lumber, and workers all putting upward pressure on prices and costs. Most forecasters, and the Fed, think those pressures will ease once the economy has reopened and normal spending patterns resume. Nonetheless, the difference between yields on regular and inflation-indexed bond yields suggest investors are expecting inflation in coming years to average about 2.5%. That is hardly a repeat of the 1970s, and compatible with the Fed’s new goal of average 2% inflation over the long term. Nonetheless, it would be a clear break from the sub-2% range of the last decade.Slightly higher inflation would result in the Fed setting short-term interest rates also slightly higher, which need not hurt stock valuations. More worrisome: Long-term bond yields, which are critical to stock values, might rise significantly more. Since the late 1990s, bond and stock prices have tended to move in opposite directions. That is because when inflation isn’t a concern, economic shocks tend to drive both bond yields (which move in the opposite direction to prices) and stock prices down. Bonds thus act as an insurance policy against losses on stocks, for which investors are willing to accept lower yields. If inflation becomes a problem again, then bonds lose that insurance value and their yields will rise. In recent months that stock-bond correlation, in place for most of the last few decades, began to disappear, said Brian Sack, a former Fed economist who is now with hedge fund D.E. Shaw & Co. LP. He attributes that, in part, to inflation concerns.The many years since inflation dominated the financial landscape have led investors to price assets as if inflation never will have that sway again. They may be right. But if the unprecedented combination of monetary and fiscal stimulus succeeds in jolting the economy out of the last decade’s pattern, that complacency could prove quite costly.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":461,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":386717797,"gmtCreate":1613274468919,"gmtModify":1704879689084,"author":{"id":"3562815822807212","authorId":"3562815822807212","name":"Favian","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3c9db4d731960e756da0c07d6b32f34a","crmLevel":6,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3562815822807212","idStr":"3562815822807212"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"huat ahhhh ??? happy chinese new year!!","listText":"huat ahhhh ??? happy chinese new year!!","text":"huat ahhhh ??? happy chinese new year!!","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":7,"commentSize":2,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/386717797","repostId":"2110904027","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":712,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[{"author":{"id":"3562815822807212","authorId":"3562815822807212","name":"Favian","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3c9db4d731960e756da0c07d6b32f34a","crmLevel":6,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"authorIdStr":"3562815822807212","idStr":"3562815822807212"},"content":"likeeee for quest!","text":"likeeee for quest!","html":"likeeee for quest!"}],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0}],"lives":[]}