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2021-08-10
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Rogers: The most brutal bear market in history may start at this time
Xiaoranqi
2023-03-31
$AMZN 20230519 110.0 CALL$
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href=\"https://ttm.financial/OPT/AMZN 20230519 110.0 CALL\">$AMZN 20230519 110.0 CALL$ </a>","listText":"<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/OPT/AMZN 20230519 110.0 CALL\">$AMZN 20230519 110.0 CALL$ </a>","text":"$AMZN 20230519 110.0 CALL$","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9941620177","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1241,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":896399468,"gmtCreate":1628554861654,"gmtModify":1703507952901,"author":{"id":"3564898834788124","authorId":"3564898834788124","name":"Xiaoranqi","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3564898834788124","authorIdStr":"3564898834788124"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Oh","listText":"Oh","text":"Oh","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/896399468","repostId":"1115482984","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1115482984","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1628514002,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1115482984?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2021-08-09 21:00","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"Rogers: The most brutal bear market in history may start at this time","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1115482984","media":" 腾讯美股","summary":"罗杰斯说道：“2008年时，股市的问题主要是在于，我们背负了太多债务。可是，2008年之后直至今天，债务更火箭一般窜升。因此，下一次我们遇到熊市时，只能比那次严酷得多。”\n\n现在，债券已经处在泡沫当中","content":"<p><b><i>Rogers said: \"In 2008, the main problem with the stock market was that we had too much debt. However, after 2008 and until today, the debt has soared like a rocket. Therefore, the next time we encounter a bear market, it can only be much harsher than that time.\"</i></b></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a8632dfa3f7d3fb56cea770ea3ec93e9\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"719\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>Now, bonds are in a bubble, and many stocks are beginning to bubble, as are the housing markets in South Korea, New Zealand and many other places. Only commodity prices are still cheap. In a recent interview, legendary investor Jim Rogers discussed his views on commodity investment and predicted that by the end of 2021 or 2022, everything will be completely bubbled, and the ensuing bear market will make history All previous bear markets eclipsed.</p><p>The following is the full text of the interview:</p><p>Q: Recently, one of the biggest news is that the American business community has become more cautious in the face of the Delta variant virus. Amazon, for example, has delayed the schedule for employees to return to work. However, it seems that the market doesn't agree with the new threat of the epidemic at all.</p><p>A: We have all seen that in almost any market in the world, prices have risen above the sky. This is unprecedented because central banks all over the world print so much money. I'm not an expert in timing, but I'm sure everything will come to an end in the next few months. We will witness a scene like never before.</p><p>Q: Unlike stocks, commodity prices seem to be more sensitive to epidemic-related news. For example, crude oil prices responded immediately. Is the epidemic likely to bring a domino effect to raw material prices, inflation, and even corporate profits?</p><p>A: In fact, the cheapest asset category in the world at present is commodities. Bond markets all over the world are already in bubbles. Stock markets are also beginning to form bubbles in many places. The housing market in South Korea, New Zealand and many other places has also frothed. However, the goods are still cheap. The price of silver is 50% lower than its all-time high, and the price of oil is 50% lower. Of course, I can't predict the specific changes in oil prices this week, but given that known reserves continue to decline and the fracking bubble has burst, I think the oil market is expected to show strength in the coming months. Every day and every week are difficult to predict, but we all know that oil prices have dropped a lot compared with their all-time highs.</p><p>Q; You said decreasing reserves, bursting fracking bubble, these are all supply side factors, but what is the outlook for the demand side? The world is moving towards electric vehicles and the like, gradually moving away from fossil fuels. Doesn't this mean that the fundamentals of oil can no longer be so strong?</p><p>A: It's true that the future of our world belongs to electric vehicles. This is already clear, but the whole process will take a long time. Henry Ford's wife owns an electric car. She doesn't like internal combustion engines and firmly believes that electric cars mark the future, but speaking of it, it was more than a hundred years ago. Yes, real electric vehicles have arrived, but changes cannot be completed overnight. At the same time, oil reserves continue to decline. Of course, I don't mean to ask everyone to speculate in oil quickly, but I really haven't given up hope for oil prices.</p><p>Q: So what do you think of the long-term prospects for oil prices? Under what circumstances will you decide that the crude oil game has really come to an end?</p><p>Many alternative energy sources have come to us, especially solar energy, wind energy, tidal energy, etc., but it will take a long time for these to really develop. As I said earlier, there is a 50% gap between oil prices and historical highs, while the world's proven reserves continue to decline. The fracking bubble burst, while reserves were dwindling at the same time. In view of this, I wouldn't be surprised at all if oil prices rose sharply in the next two or three years because of the relationship between supply and demand. Let's keep in mind that there are two sides to the coin. Electric vehicles are indeed developing, but it will take time, as the old Ford's wife has proved.</p><p>Q: What about agricultural commodities, especially canteens? This also has something to do with the removal of fossil energy. Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi is now pushing for fuel ethanol vehicles. He hopes that by 2025, all vehicle fuels can be mixed with 80% ethanol. What do you think of the prospect of sugar?</p><p>A: Speaking of ethanol fuel vehicles, Brazilians are already working hard to develop them. Americans are also developing using corn as raw material. Produce-based fuels are perfectly feasible. We will have more electric vehicles, which will benefit the prices of many commodities. Electric cars require several times more copper, lead, and nickel than ordinary cars. Similarly, cars fueled by sugar or corn or other agricultural products will also greatly increase the demand for corresponding commodities. The use of oil is declining. There are many ways to trade commodities, and as mentioned earlier, commodities are the cheapest of all major assets so far in 2021.</p><p>Q: You've been a long-time bull on silver and gold. Let's review what has happened in the past two short weeks. The real yield of U.S. Treasury Bond has fallen to a new low, and the performance of the US Dollar Index has also been sluggish. It seems that everything is ready for the gold price rise, and it only owes the east wind, but the rise has not happened. What do you think of this?</p><p>A: I haven't bought silver or gold recently, but I want to emphasize again that I am not a good trader. I am still waiting for the consolidation of silver and gold to deepen further. If I had to buy now, I would buy more silver than gold. Compared with the historical high, the current price of silver is 50% lower, while the distance of gold is only 10%. In short, of course, I won't buy at the moment, but when I buy again, I probably buy much more silver than gold.</p><p>Q: Do you still think that the US dollar is a safe haven as in the past, or have you discovered other asset categories that are better than the US dollar as a safe haven?</p><p>A: I still hold dollars. Before the recent rally, the dollar had been lower for some time. When things go wrong, people will look for safe havens. I estimate that they will invest dollars in return at least once or twice in the next time. However, we must know that in history, no reserve currency can maintain this status for one hundred or one hundred and fifty years. The dollar has had that status for some time now, and maybe it's almost coming to an end. Of course, this won't happen this year, nor is it likely to happen in two or three years, but considering the staggering debt burden of the United States, this position of the US dollar is actually very fragile.</p><p>Who can replace the US dollar? I didn't know. Yes, many people, including me, have invested in silver, but I still don't know which currency in the world can replace the US dollar now. Of course, everyone is looking for competitors to the US dollar. After all, the United States is already the number one debtor country in global history.</p><p>Q: What is your judgment on the future direction of interest rates? Under the threat of high inflation prospects, how long can the current low interest rate policies of global central banks continue?</p><p>A: Bonds are obviously in a bubble. Bonds have never been so expensive in our known world history, and we need to see that we are about to face higher interest rates. The central banks will rack their brains to keep interest rates as low as possible, but sooner or later the market will say we don't care anymore and we don't want to play this game anymore.</p><p>Central bankers want to keep interest rates as low as possible, but debt is piling up everywhere. The supply of debt is staggering, and inflation is coming. All these fundamentals point to interest rates. I'm not buying or shorting now, but there's no doubt that interest rates will have to go higher sooner or later, maybe not this quarter, but there will always be no run in the next two or three years.</p><p>Q: As we all know, the European Central Bank has made it clear that negative interest rates will exist longer, the Bank of England has also said that it is difficult for them to turn hawkish given the troubles of the Delta variant virus outbreak, and the US Federal Reserve has also said that rate hike is still far away. Things afterwards. What do you think? Has the market begun to perceive the potential of a rate hike, and does this mean that the stock market is approaching its peak?</p><p>A: Sooner or later, the market will tell the central bank that we don't care, just add the rate hike. The market will always regain control of interest rates, and at that time, all stocks, real estate, loans, etc. will encounter major trouble, because after the market gets control, interest rates will become very high. I have already said that the supply of bonds is amazingly large now, and more bonds will come to the market in the future. Inflation is here too. These are the most basic fundamentals that will drive interest rates higher. As for central banks, they have lost control many times in the past, and this time they will eventually lose it. By then, the stock market will encounter the worst bear market of my life.</p><p>In 2008, the main problem with the stock market was that we were burdened with too much debt. However, since 2008 and until today, the debt has soared like a rocket. So the next time we encounter a bear market, it can only be much harsher than that one.</p><p>Q: We have seen that so far this year, the performance of emerging markets has not been as good as that of developed countries. What do you think is causing this? Also, what do higher interest rates mean for emerging markets and developed countries?</p><p>These things often originate at the edge of the market, where people don't pay much attention to it. We have now seen some banks in emerging markets and some small countries in trouble. In 2008, when Lehman Brothers went bankrupt, everyone knew the trouble was coming, but in fact, before that, the problem had been brewing in many markets around the world for months. However, although there are signs of problems, I haven't sold my stocks now, because there are still many stocks in many markets around the world that are not bubbled.</p><p>My expectation is that eventually everything will enter the bubble phase, but that may not be until later this year, or 2022, when it will also be the time for the finale, and we will encounter a terrible bear market. I'm not a doomsday prophet. I just want to say that the scale of debt today is even more alarming than it has been in 2008, and the next bear market will eclipse all other bear markets in history.</p>","source":"txmg","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Rogers: The most brutal bear market in history may start at this time</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nRogers: The most brutal bear market in history may start at this time\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\"> 腾讯美股</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-08-09 21:00</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><b><i>Rogers said: \"In 2008, the main problem with the stock market was that we had too much debt. However, after 2008 and until today, the debt has soared like a rocket. Therefore, the next time we encounter a bear market, it can only be much harsher than that time.\"</i></b></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a8632dfa3f7d3fb56cea770ea3ec93e9\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"719\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>Now, bonds are in a bubble, and many stocks are beginning to bubble, as are the housing markets in South Korea, New Zealand and many other places. Only commodity prices are still cheap. In a recent interview, legendary investor Jim Rogers discussed his views on commodity investment and predicted that by the end of 2021 or 2022, everything will be completely bubbled, and the ensuing bear market will make history All previous bear markets eclipsed.</p><p>The following is the full text of the interview:</p><p>Q: Recently, one of the biggest news is that the American business community has become more cautious in the face of the Delta variant virus. Amazon, for example, has delayed the schedule for employees to return to work. However, it seems that the market doesn't agree with the new threat of the epidemic at all.</p><p>A: We have all seen that in almost any market in the world, prices have risen above the sky. This is unprecedented because central banks all over the world print so much money. I'm not an expert in timing, but I'm sure everything will come to an end in the next few months. We will witness a scene like never before.</p><p>Q: Unlike stocks, commodity prices seem to be more sensitive to epidemic-related news. For example, crude oil prices responded immediately. Is the epidemic likely to bring a domino effect to raw material prices, inflation, and even corporate profits?</p><p>A: In fact, the cheapest asset category in the world at present is commodities. Bond markets all over the world are already in bubbles. Stock markets are also beginning to form bubbles in many places. The housing market in South Korea, New Zealand and many other places has also frothed. However, the goods are still cheap. The price of silver is 50% lower than its all-time high, and the price of oil is 50% lower. Of course, I can't predict the specific changes in oil prices this week, but given that known reserves continue to decline and the fracking bubble has burst, I think the oil market is expected to show strength in the coming months. Every day and every week are difficult to predict, but we all know that oil prices have dropped a lot compared with their all-time highs.</p><p>Q; You said decreasing reserves, bursting fracking bubble, these are all supply side factors, but what is the outlook for the demand side? The world is moving towards electric vehicles and the like, gradually moving away from fossil fuels. Doesn't this mean that the fundamentals of oil can no longer be so strong?</p><p>A: It's true that the future of our world belongs to electric vehicles. This is already clear, but the whole process will take a long time. Henry Ford's wife owns an electric car. She doesn't like internal combustion engines and firmly believes that electric cars mark the future, but speaking of it, it was more than a hundred years ago. Yes, real electric vehicles have arrived, but changes cannot be completed overnight. At the same time, oil reserves continue to decline. Of course, I don't mean to ask everyone to speculate in oil quickly, but I really haven't given up hope for oil prices.</p><p>Q: So what do you think of the long-term prospects for oil prices? Under what circumstances will you decide that the crude oil game has really come to an end?</p><p>Many alternative energy sources have come to us, especially solar energy, wind energy, tidal energy, etc., but it will take a long time for these to really develop. As I said earlier, there is a 50% gap between oil prices and historical highs, while the world's proven reserves continue to decline. The fracking bubble burst, while reserves were dwindling at the same time. In view of this, I wouldn't be surprised at all if oil prices rose sharply in the next two or three years because of the relationship between supply and demand. Let's keep in mind that there are two sides to the coin. Electric vehicles are indeed developing, but it will take time, as the old Ford's wife has proved.</p><p>Q: What about agricultural commodities, especially canteens? This also has something to do with the removal of fossil energy. Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi is now pushing for fuel ethanol vehicles. He hopes that by 2025, all vehicle fuels can be mixed with 80% ethanol. What do you think of the prospect of sugar?</p><p>A: Speaking of ethanol fuel vehicles, Brazilians are already working hard to develop them. Americans are also developing using corn as raw material. Produce-based fuels are perfectly feasible. We will have more electric vehicles, which will benefit the prices of many commodities. Electric cars require several times more copper, lead, and nickel than ordinary cars. Similarly, cars fueled by sugar or corn or other agricultural products will also greatly increase the demand for corresponding commodities. The use of oil is declining. There are many ways to trade commodities, and as mentioned earlier, commodities are the cheapest of all major assets so far in 2021.</p><p>Q: You've been a long-time bull on silver and gold. Let's review what has happened in the past two short weeks. The real yield of U.S. Treasury Bond has fallen to a new low, and the performance of the US Dollar Index has also been sluggish. It seems that everything is ready for the gold price rise, and it only owes the east wind, but the rise has not happened. What do you think of this?</p><p>A: I haven't bought silver or gold recently, but I want to emphasize again that I am not a good trader. I am still waiting for the consolidation of silver and gold to deepen further. If I had to buy now, I would buy more silver than gold. Compared with the historical high, the current price of silver is 50% lower, while the distance of gold is only 10%. In short, of course, I won't buy at the moment, but when I buy again, I probably buy much more silver than gold.</p><p>Q: Do you still think that the US dollar is a safe haven as in the past, or have you discovered other asset categories that are better than the US dollar as a safe haven?</p><p>A: I still hold dollars. Before the recent rally, the dollar had been lower for some time. When things go wrong, people will look for safe havens. I estimate that they will invest dollars in return at least once or twice in the next time. However, we must know that in history, no reserve currency can maintain this status for one hundred or one hundred and fifty years. The dollar has had that status for some time now, and maybe it's almost coming to an end. Of course, this won't happen this year, nor is it likely to happen in two or three years, but considering the staggering debt burden of the United States, this position of the US dollar is actually very fragile.</p><p>Who can replace the US dollar? I didn't know. Yes, many people, including me, have invested in silver, but I still don't know which currency in the world can replace the US dollar now. Of course, everyone is looking for competitors to the US dollar. After all, the United States is already the number one debtor country in global history.</p><p>Q: What is your judgment on the future direction of interest rates? Under the threat of high inflation prospects, how long can the current low interest rate policies of global central banks continue?</p><p>A: Bonds are obviously in a bubble. Bonds have never been so expensive in our known world history, and we need to see that we are about to face higher interest rates. The central banks will rack their brains to keep interest rates as low as possible, but sooner or later the market will say we don't care anymore and we don't want to play this game anymore.</p><p>Central bankers want to keep interest rates as low as possible, but debt is piling up everywhere. The supply of debt is staggering, and inflation is coming. All these fundamentals point to interest rates. I'm not buying or shorting now, but there's no doubt that interest rates will have to go higher sooner or later, maybe not this quarter, but there will always be no run in the next two or three years.</p><p>Q: As we all know, the European Central Bank has made it clear that negative interest rates will exist longer, the Bank of England has also said that it is difficult for them to turn hawkish given the troubles of the Delta variant virus outbreak, and the US Federal Reserve has also said that rate hike is still far away. Things afterwards. What do you think? Has the market begun to perceive the potential of a rate hike, and does this mean that the stock market is approaching its peak?</p><p>A: Sooner or later, the market will tell the central bank that we don't care, just add the rate hike. The market will always regain control of interest rates, and at that time, all stocks, real estate, loans, etc. will encounter major trouble, because after the market gets control, interest rates will become very high. I have already said that the supply of bonds is amazingly large now, and more bonds will come to the market in the future. Inflation is here too. These are the most basic fundamentals that will drive interest rates higher. As for central banks, they have lost control many times in the past, and this time they will eventually lose it. By then, the stock market will encounter the worst bear market of my life.</p><p>In 2008, the main problem with the stock market was that we were burdened with too much debt. However, since 2008 and until today, the debt has soared like a rocket. So the next time we encounter a bear market, it can only be much harsher than that one.</p><p>Q: We have seen that so far this year, the performance of emerging markets has not been as good as that of developed countries. What do you think is causing this? Also, what do higher interest rates mean for emerging markets and developed countries?</p><p>These things often originate at the edge of the market, where people don't pay much attention to it. We have now seen some banks in emerging markets and some small countries in trouble. In 2008, when Lehman Brothers went bankrupt, everyone knew the trouble was coming, but in fact, before that, the problem had been brewing in many markets around the world for months. However, although there are signs of problems, I haven't sold my stocks now, because there are still many stocks in many markets around the world that are not bubbled.</p><p>My expectation is that eventually everything will enter the bubble phase, but that may not be until later this year, or 2022, when it will also be the time for the finale, and we will encounter a terrible bear market. I'm not a doomsday prophet. I just want to say that the scale of debt today is even more alarming than it has been in 2008, and the next bear market will eclipse all other bear markets in history.</p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> source：<a href=\"https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s/ZQHN04kynwSMO59PKBpggQ\"> 腾讯美股</a></p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a8632dfa3f7d3fb56cea770ea3ec93e9","relate_stocks":{".DJI":"道琼斯"},"source_url":"https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s/ZQHN04kynwSMO59PKBpggQ","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1115482984","content_text":"罗杰斯说道：“2008年时，股市的问题主要是在于，我们背负了太多债务。可是，2008年之后直至今天，债务更火箭一般窜升。因此，下一次我们遇到熊市时，只能比那次严酷得多。”\n\n现在，债券已经处在泡沫当中，而许多股票也开始泡沫化，同样泡沫化的还有韩国、新西兰和许多其他地方的房市，唯有大宗商品价格还算低廉。近日接受采访时，传奇投资人罗杰斯（Jim Rogers）讨论了自己对商品投资的看法，并预言说，到2021年底或者2022年，所有一切都将彻底泡沫化，而接踵而至的熊市将令史上之前的所有熊市黯然失色。\n以下即访谈全文：\n问：近期，最重大的新闻之一就是，面对德尔塔变种病毒的来袭，美国企业界变得更加谨慎了。比如，亚马逊已经推迟了员工返回工作的时间表。可是看上去，市场似乎对疫情的全新威胁根本不以为然。\n答：我们都已经看到了，几乎世界任何地方的市场，价格都涨破了天际。这堪称是史无前例，因为全世界的央行印出了这么多的钞票。我并不是什么选时操作的行家里手，但是我确信，一切都会在未来几个月画上句号。我们将目睹前所未有的一幕。\n问：与股票有所不同，商品价格看上去对于疫情相关新闻更加敏感一些，比如原油价格当即就做出了反应。疫情是否可能会给原材料价格、通货膨胀，乃至企业盈利带去一场骨牌效应？\n答：事实上，当前全世界价格最低廉的资产门类正是大宗商品。全世界的债市都已经处在泡沫当中。许多地方的股市也开始形成泡沫。韩国、新西兰和不少其他地方的房市也泡沫化了。不过，商品依然廉价。银的价格与历史最高点相比低了50%，石油价格也低了50%。我当然预测不了油价本周的具体变化，不过鉴于已知的储量持续减少，而压裂泡沫已经破灭，因此我觉得，未来几个月来说，石油市场预计还会呈现出强势。每一天每一周的情况难以预测，但是我们都知道，油价与历史最高点相比已经下跌了很多。\n问；你说储量减少，压裂泡沫破灭，这些都是供应面因素，但是需求面前景如何呢？这个世界正在转向电动汽车之类，逐渐远离化石燃料。难道这不是说明，石油的基本面已经不可能再那么强势了吗？\n答：确实，我们这个世界的未来属于电动汽车，这已经很清楚了，但是整个过程还需要很长的时间。老福特（Henry Ford）的太太就有一部电动汽车，她不喜欢内燃机，坚信电动汽车才标志着未来，但是说起来，那都是一百多年前的事情了。是的，真正意义上的电动汽车已经来了，但是变化也不可能一夜间完成。与此同时，石油储备还在持续下滑。我的意思当然不是要大家都赶快去炒石油，但是我对于石油价格确实没有放弃希望。\n问：那么你对油价的长期前景怎么看？到了怎样的情况下，你才会认定原油游戏真的到了落幕的时候？\n许多替代性能源都来到了我们面前，尤其是太阳能、风能、潮汐能等，但是这些真正发展起来都需要很长时间。我前面说了，油价距离历史最高点有50%的差距，而全世界的已探明储量都在持续下滑。压裂法的泡沫破灭了，而储量同时在减少。有鉴于此，如果油价因为供求关系的缘故在未来两三年内大涨，我是丝毫不会感到吃惊的。我们要记住，硬币是有两面的。电动汽车确实在发展，但是这需要时间，老福特的太太已经证明了这一点。\n问：农业大宗商品，尤其是食堂的情况怎样？这也和去化石能源有一定关系。印度总理莫迪现在正力推燃料乙醇汽车，他希望到2025年，所有的汽车燃料都能够混合80%乙醇。你对食糖的前景怎么看？\n答：说起乙醇燃料汽车，巴西人已经在努力发展了。美国人也在以玉米为原料开发。基于农产品的燃料完全是可行的。我们将拥有更多电动汽车，后者将令许多大宗商品的价格从中获益。电动汽车需要的铜、铅、镍都要数倍于普通汽车。同理，以食糖或者玉米或者其他农产品为燃料的汽车，也会令相应商品需求大增。石油的使用则是递减的态势。要交易大宗商品，我们有许多方法可以选择，而且还是前面说的那句话，大宗商品是2021年迄今为止所有主要资产当中价格最为低廉的。\n问：你一直是白银和黄金的长期牛派。让我们来回顾一下过去短短两周时间都发生了什么。美国国债的真实收益率跌到了新低，美元指数表现也很低迷。看上去，黄金价格涨势已经是万事俱备，只欠东风了，但是涨势却没有发生。你对此怎么看？\n答：我最近白银和黄金两者都没有买进，但是我要再强调一下，我不是一个好的交易者。我还在等待白银和黄金的盘整行情进一步深化。如果非要我现在就买进，与黄金相比，我会更多买进白银。白银较之历史最高点，当前的价位低了50%，而黄金的距离只有10%。总之，我在当下当然是都不会买进的，但是当我再度买进，我买进的白银估计要比黄金多得多。\n问：你还是像过去那样，认为美元是一个避风港，或者是你已经发现了其他的资产门类，后者作为避风港比美元更加出色？\n答：我依然持有美元。在近期的涨势前，美元已经走低了一段时间。当局面出现问题，人们就会去寻找避风港，我估计，他们至少未来一两次之内，还会投入美元的回报。只不过，我们必须知道，历史上，没有任何一种储备货币能够持续保持这种身份一百年或者一百五十年。美元拥有这种身份已经一段时间了，也许一切已经快到了尾声了。当然，这不会在今年发生，也不大可能在两三年内，但是考虑到美国债务负担如此惊人，美元的这个地位其实已经很脆弱了。\n谁能够代替美元？我并不知道。是的，包括我在内，许多人都投资了白银，但是我依然不知道现在世界上有哪种货币可以取代美元。当然，大家都在寻找美元的竞争对手，毕竟美国已经是全球历史上的头号债务国。\n问：你对利率未来的走向有何判断？在高通货膨胀前景的威胁之下，全球央行当下的低利率政策还能够延续多久？\n答：债券显然是处在泡沫当中的。在我们已知的世界历史上，债价从未如此昂贵，而且还需要看到，我们即将面对更高的利率。各大央行会绞尽脑汁，尽可能保持低利率，但是市场迟早会说我们不在乎了，我们不想再玩这场游戏了。\n央行银行家们想要尽可能保持低利率，但是各处都已经债如山积。债务供应量惊人，通货膨胀就要来了。所有这些基本面都指向了利率，我现在不买进也不做空，但是毫无疑问，利率迟早必须走高，也许不是这个季度，但是未来两三年里总是没有跑的。\n问：众所周知，欧洲央行已经明确表示，负利率将存在更长时间，英国央行也说，鉴于德尔塔变种病毒疫情爆发的麻烦，他们很难转向鹰派，而美国联储也表示，加息还是很远之后的事情。你觉得呢？市场是否已经开始感知到加息的潜在可能，而这是否意味着股市正在接近顶点？\n答：迟早会有那么一天，市场将告诉央行说，我们不在乎，该加息就加吧。市场总会重新获得利率的控制权，而到那时候，所有的股票、房地产、贷款等就将遇到重大的麻烦，因为市场得到控制权之后，利率将变得非常高。我已经说了，现在债券的供应量大到惊人，而且未来还将有更多债券来到市场上。通货膨胀也在这里了。这些都是最基本的基本面，将会推动利率走高。至于央行，他们过去也曾经多次失去控制权，而这一次最终也将失去，到那时候，股市就将遭遇我一生时间当中最可怕的熊市了。\n2008年时，股市的问题主要是在于，我们背负了太多债务。可是，2008年之后直至今天，债务更火箭一般窜升。因此，下一次我们遇到熊市时，只能比那次严酷得多。\n问：我们看到，今年迄今为止，新兴市场的表现是不及发达国家的。你觉得这是什么造成的？还有，更高的利率对于新兴市场和发达国家又各自意味着什么？\n这些事情往往都缘起于市场的边缘，人们不怎么重视的地方。我们现在已经看到新兴市场的一些银行和一些小国家遇到麻烦。2008年的时候，雷曼兄弟破产了，所有人就都知道麻烦来了，但是实际上，在那之前，问题已经在世界许多市场上酝酿了数月之久了。不过，虽然出现了问题的迹象，但是我现在并没有因此卖掉股票，因为在世界许多市场上，依然有不少股票并没有泡沫化。\n我的预期是，最终所有一切都会进入泡沫阶段，但是那也许要等到今年晚些时候，或者是2022年，那时也将是大结局到来的时间，我们将遭遇一场可怕的大熊市。我不是什么末日预言家，我只是要说，今天的债务规模比起2008年来还要更加惊人，而下一次熊市将令历史上所有其他熊市黯然失色。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{".DJI":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1705,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0}],"hots":[{"id":896399468,"gmtCreate":1628554861654,"gmtModify":1703507952901,"author":{"id":"3564898834788124","authorId":"3564898834788124","name":"Xiaoranqi","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3564898834788124","authorIdStr":"3564898834788124"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Oh","listText":"Oh","text":"Oh","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/896399468","repostId":"1115482984","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1115482984","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1628514002,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1115482984?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2021-08-09 21:00","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"Rogers: The most brutal bear market in history may start at this time","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1115482984","media":" 腾讯美股","summary":"罗杰斯说道：“2008年时，股市的问题主要是在于，我们背负了太多债务。可是，2008年之后直至今天，债务更火箭一般窜升。因此，下一次我们遇到熊市时，只能比那次严酷得多。”\n\n现在，债券已经处在泡沫当中","content":"<p><b><i>Rogers said: \"In 2008, the main problem with the stock market was that we had too much debt. However, after 2008 and until today, the debt has soared like a rocket. Therefore, the next time we encounter a bear market, it can only be much harsher than that time.\"</i></b></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a8632dfa3f7d3fb56cea770ea3ec93e9\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"719\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>Now, bonds are in a bubble, and many stocks are beginning to bubble, as are the housing markets in South Korea, New Zealand and many other places. Only commodity prices are still cheap. In a recent interview, legendary investor Jim Rogers discussed his views on commodity investment and predicted that by the end of 2021 or 2022, everything will be completely bubbled, and the ensuing bear market will make history All previous bear markets eclipsed.</p><p>The following is the full text of the interview:</p><p>Q: Recently, one of the biggest news is that the American business community has become more cautious in the face of the Delta variant virus. Amazon, for example, has delayed the schedule for employees to return to work. However, it seems that the market doesn't agree with the new threat of the epidemic at all.</p><p>A: We have all seen that in almost any market in the world, prices have risen above the sky. This is unprecedented because central banks all over the world print so much money. I'm not an expert in timing, but I'm sure everything will come to an end in the next few months. We will witness a scene like never before.</p><p>Q: Unlike stocks, commodity prices seem to be more sensitive to epidemic-related news. For example, crude oil prices responded immediately. Is the epidemic likely to bring a domino effect to raw material prices, inflation, and even corporate profits?</p><p>A: In fact, the cheapest asset category in the world at present is commodities. Bond markets all over the world are already in bubbles. Stock markets are also beginning to form bubbles in many places. The housing market in South Korea, New Zealand and many other places has also frothed. However, the goods are still cheap. The price of silver is 50% lower than its all-time high, and the price of oil is 50% lower. Of course, I can't predict the specific changes in oil prices this week, but given that known reserves continue to decline and the fracking bubble has burst, I think the oil market is expected to show strength in the coming months. Every day and every week are difficult to predict, but we all know that oil prices have dropped a lot compared with their all-time highs.</p><p>Q; You said decreasing reserves, bursting fracking bubble, these are all supply side factors, but what is the outlook for the demand side? The world is moving towards electric vehicles and the like, gradually moving away from fossil fuels. Doesn't this mean that the fundamentals of oil can no longer be so strong?</p><p>A: It's true that the future of our world belongs to electric vehicles. This is already clear, but the whole process will take a long time. Henry Ford's wife owns an electric car. She doesn't like internal combustion engines and firmly believes that electric cars mark the future, but speaking of it, it was more than a hundred years ago. Yes, real electric vehicles have arrived, but changes cannot be completed overnight. At the same time, oil reserves continue to decline. Of course, I don't mean to ask everyone to speculate in oil quickly, but I really haven't given up hope for oil prices.</p><p>Q: So what do you think of the long-term prospects for oil prices? Under what circumstances will you decide that the crude oil game has really come to an end?</p><p>Many alternative energy sources have come to us, especially solar energy, wind energy, tidal energy, etc., but it will take a long time for these to really develop. As I said earlier, there is a 50% gap between oil prices and historical highs, while the world's proven reserves continue to decline. The fracking bubble burst, while reserves were dwindling at the same time. In view of this, I wouldn't be surprised at all if oil prices rose sharply in the next two or three years because of the relationship between supply and demand. Let's keep in mind that there are two sides to the coin. Electric vehicles are indeed developing, but it will take time, as the old Ford's wife has proved.</p><p>Q: What about agricultural commodities, especially canteens? This also has something to do with the removal of fossil energy. Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi is now pushing for fuel ethanol vehicles. He hopes that by 2025, all vehicle fuels can be mixed with 80% ethanol. What do you think of the prospect of sugar?</p><p>A: Speaking of ethanol fuel vehicles, Brazilians are already working hard to develop them. Americans are also developing using corn as raw material. Produce-based fuels are perfectly feasible. We will have more electric vehicles, which will benefit the prices of many commodities. Electric cars require several times more copper, lead, and nickel than ordinary cars. Similarly, cars fueled by sugar or corn or other agricultural products will also greatly increase the demand for corresponding commodities. The use of oil is declining. There are many ways to trade commodities, and as mentioned earlier, commodities are the cheapest of all major assets so far in 2021.</p><p>Q: You've been a long-time bull on silver and gold. Let's review what has happened in the past two short weeks. The real yield of U.S. Treasury Bond has fallen to a new low, and the performance of the US Dollar Index has also been sluggish. It seems that everything is ready for the gold price rise, and it only owes the east wind, but the rise has not happened. What do you think of this?</p><p>A: I haven't bought silver or gold recently, but I want to emphasize again that I am not a good trader. I am still waiting for the consolidation of silver and gold to deepen further. If I had to buy now, I would buy more silver than gold. Compared with the historical high, the current price of silver is 50% lower, while the distance of gold is only 10%. In short, of course, I won't buy at the moment, but when I buy again, I probably buy much more silver than gold.</p><p>Q: Do you still think that the US dollar is a safe haven as in the past, or have you discovered other asset categories that are better than the US dollar as a safe haven?</p><p>A: I still hold dollars. Before the recent rally, the dollar had been lower for some time. When things go wrong, people will look for safe havens. I estimate that they will invest dollars in return at least once or twice in the next time. However, we must know that in history, no reserve currency can maintain this status for one hundred or one hundred and fifty years. The dollar has had that status for some time now, and maybe it's almost coming to an end. Of course, this won't happen this year, nor is it likely to happen in two or three years, but considering the staggering debt burden of the United States, this position of the US dollar is actually very fragile.</p><p>Who can replace the US dollar? I didn't know. Yes, many people, including me, have invested in silver, but I still don't know which currency in the world can replace the US dollar now. Of course, everyone is looking for competitors to the US dollar. After all, the United States is already the number one debtor country in global history.</p><p>Q: What is your judgment on the future direction of interest rates? Under the threat of high inflation prospects, how long can the current low interest rate policies of global central banks continue?</p><p>A: Bonds are obviously in a bubble. Bonds have never been so expensive in our known world history, and we need to see that we are about to face higher interest rates. The central banks will rack their brains to keep interest rates as low as possible, but sooner or later the market will say we don't care anymore and we don't want to play this game anymore.</p><p>Central bankers want to keep interest rates as low as possible, but debt is piling up everywhere. The supply of debt is staggering, and inflation is coming. All these fundamentals point to interest rates. I'm not buying or shorting now, but there's no doubt that interest rates will have to go higher sooner or later, maybe not this quarter, but there will always be no run in the next two or three years.</p><p>Q: As we all know, the European Central Bank has made it clear that negative interest rates will exist longer, the Bank of England has also said that it is difficult for them to turn hawkish given the troubles of the Delta variant virus outbreak, and the US Federal Reserve has also said that rate hike is still far away. Things afterwards. What do you think? Has the market begun to perceive the potential of a rate hike, and does this mean that the stock market is approaching its peak?</p><p>A: Sooner or later, the market will tell the central bank that we don't care, just add the rate hike. The market will always regain control of interest rates, and at that time, all stocks, real estate, loans, etc. will encounter major trouble, because after the market gets control, interest rates will become very high. I have already said that the supply of bonds is amazingly large now, and more bonds will come to the market in the future. Inflation is here too. These are the most basic fundamentals that will drive interest rates higher. As for central banks, they have lost control many times in the past, and this time they will eventually lose it. By then, the stock market will encounter the worst bear market of my life.</p><p>In 2008, the main problem with the stock market was that we were burdened with too much debt. However, since 2008 and until today, the debt has soared like a rocket. So the next time we encounter a bear market, it can only be much harsher than that one.</p><p>Q: We have seen that so far this year, the performance of emerging markets has not been as good as that of developed countries. What do you think is causing this? Also, what do higher interest rates mean for emerging markets and developed countries?</p><p>These things often originate at the edge of the market, where people don't pay much attention to it. We have now seen some banks in emerging markets and some small countries in trouble. In 2008, when Lehman Brothers went bankrupt, everyone knew the trouble was coming, but in fact, before that, the problem had been brewing in many markets around the world for months. However, although there are signs of problems, I haven't sold my stocks now, because there are still many stocks in many markets around the world that are not bubbled.</p><p>My expectation is that eventually everything will enter the bubble phase, but that may not be until later this year, or 2022, when it will also be the time for the finale, and we will encounter a terrible bear market. I'm not a doomsday prophet. I just want to say that the scale of debt today is even more alarming than it has been in 2008, and the next bear market will eclipse all other bear markets in history.</p>","source":"txmg","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Rogers: The most brutal bear market in history may start at this time</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nRogers: The most brutal bear market in history may start at this time\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\"> 腾讯美股</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-08-09 21:00</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><b><i>Rogers said: \"In 2008, the main problem with the stock market was that we had too much debt. However, after 2008 and until today, the debt has soared like a rocket. Therefore, the next time we encounter a bear market, it can only be much harsher than that time.\"</i></b></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a8632dfa3f7d3fb56cea770ea3ec93e9\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"719\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>Now, bonds are in a bubble, and many stocks are beginning to bubble, as are the housing markets in South Korea, New Zealand and many other places. Only commodity prices are still cheap. In a recent interview, legendary investor Jim Rogers discussed his views on commodity investment and predicted that by the end of 2021 or 2022, everything will be completely bubbled, and the ensuing bear market will make history All previous bear markets eclipsed.</p><p>The following is the full text of the interview:</p><p>Q: Recently, one of the biggest news is that the American business community has become more cautious in the face of the Delta variant virus. Amazon, for example, has delayed the schedule for employees to return to work. However, it seems that the market doesn't agree with the new threat of the epidemic at all.</p><p>A: We have all seen that in almost any market in the world, prices have risen above the sky. This is unprecedented because central banks all over the world print so much money. I'm not an expert in timing, but I'm sure everything will come to an end in the next few months. We will witness a scene like never before.</p><p>Q: Unlike stocks, commodity prices seem to be more sensitive to epidemic-related news. For example, crude oil prices responded immediately. Is the epidemic likely to bring a domino effect to raw material prices, inflation, and even corporate profits?</p><p>A: In fact, the cheapest asset category in the world at present is commodities. Bond markets all over the world are already in bubbles. Stock markets are also beginning to form bubbles in many places. The housing market in South Korea, New Zealand and many other places has also frothed. However, the goods are still cheap. The price of silver is 50% lower than its all-time high, and the price of oil is 50% lower. Of course, I can't predict the specific changes in oil prices this week, but given that known reserves continue to decline and the fracking bubble has burst, I think the oil market is expected to show strength in the coming months. Every day and every week are difficult to predict, but we all know that oil prices have dropped a lot compared with their all-time highs.</p><p>Q; You said decreasing reserves, bursting fracking bubble, these are all supply side factors, but what is the outlook for the demand side? The world is moving towards electric vehicles and the like, gradually moving away from fossil fuels. Doesn't this mean that the fundamentals of oil can no longer be so strong?</p><p>A: It's true that the future of our world belongs to electric vehicles. This is already clear, but the whole process will take a long time. Henry Ford's wife owns an electric car. She doesn't like internal combustion engines and firmly believes that electric cars mark the future, but speaking of it, it was more than a hundred years ago. Yes, real electric vehicles have arrived, but changes cannot be completed overnight. At the same time, oil reserves continue to decline. Of course, I don't mean to ask everyone to speculate in oil quickly, but I really haven't given up hope for oil prices.</p><p>Q: So what do you think of the long-term prospects for oil prices? Under what circumstances will you decide that the crude oil game has really come to an end?</p><p>Many alternative energy sources have come to us, especially solar energy, wind energy, tidal energy, etc., but it will take a long time for these to really develop. As I said earlier, there is a 50% gap between oil prices and historical highs, while the world's proven reserves continue to decline. The fracking bubble burst, while reserves were dwindling at the same time. In view of this, I wouldn't be surprised at all if oil prices rose sharply in the next two or three years because of the relationship between supply and demand. Let's keep in mind that there are two sides to the coin. Electric vehicles are indeed developing, but it will take time, as the old Ford's wife has proved.</p><p>Q: What about agricultural commodities, especially canteens? This also has something to do with the removal of fossil energy. Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi is now pushing for fuel ethanol vehicles. He hopes that by 2025, all vehicle fuels can be mixed with 80% ethanol. What do you think of the prospect of sugar?</p><p>A: Speaking of ethanol fuel vehicles, Brazilians are already working hard to develop them. Americans are also developing using corn as raw material. Produce-based fuels are perfectly feasible. We will have more electric vehicles, which will benefit the prices of many commodities. Electric cars require several times more copper, lead, and nickel than ordinary cars. Similarly, cars fueled by sugar or corn or other agricultural products will also greatly increase the demand for corresponding commodities. The use of oil is declining. There are many ways to trade commodities, and as mentioned earlier, commodities are the cheapest of all major assets so far in 2021.</p><p>Q: You've been a long-time bull on silver and gold. Let's review what has happened in the past two short weeks. The real yield of U.S. Treasury Bond has fallen to a new low, and the performance of the US Dollar Index has also been sluggish. It seems that everything is ready for the gold price rise, and it only owes the east wind, but the rise has not happened. What do you think of this?</p><p>A: I haven't bought silver or gold recently, but I want to emphasize again that I am not a good trader. I am still waiting for the consolidation of silver and gold to deepen further. If I had to buy now, I would buy more silver than gold. Compared with the historical high, the current price of silver is 50% lower, while the distance of gold is only 10%. In short, of course, I won't buy at the moment, but when I buy again, I probably buy much more silver than gold.</p><p>Q: Do you still think that the US dollar is a safe haven as in the past, or have you discovered other asset categories that are better than the US dollar as a safe haven?</p><p>A: I still hold dollars. Before the recent rally, the dollar had been lower for some time. When things go wrong, people will look for safe havens. I estimate that they will invest dollars in return at least once or twice in the next time. However, we must know that in history, no reserve currency can maintain this status for one hundred or one hundred and fifty years. The dollar has had that status for some time now, and maybe it's almost coming to an end. Of course, this won't happen this year, nor is it likely to happen in two or three years, but considering the staggering debt burden of the United States, this position of the US dollar is actually very fragile.</p><p>Who can replace the US dollar? I didn't know. Yes, many people, including me, have invested in silver, but I still don't know which currency in the world can replace the US dollar now. Of course, everyone is looking for competitors to the US dollar. After all, the United States is already the number one debtor country in global history.</p><p>Q: What is your judgment on the future direction of interest rates? Under the threat of high inflation prospects, how long can the current low interest rate policies of global central banks continue?</p><p>A: Bonds are obviously in a bubble. Bonds have never been so expensive in our known world history, and we need to see that we are about to face higher interest rates. The central banks will rack their brains to keep interest rates as low as possible, but sooner or later the market will say we don't care anymore and we don't want to play this game anymore.</p><p>Central bankers want to keep interest rates as low as possible, but debt is piling up everywhere. The supply of debt is staggering, and inflation is coming. All these fundamentals point to interest rates. I'm not buying or shorting now, but there's no doubt that interest rates will have to go higher sooner or later, maybe not this quarter, but there will always be no run in the next two or three years.</p><p>Q: As we all know, the European Central Bank has made it clear that negative interest rates will exist longer, the Bank of England has also said that it is difficult for them to turn hawkish given the troubles of the Delta variant virus outbreak, and the US Federal Reserve has also said that rate hike is still far away. Things afterwards. What do you think? Has the market begun to perceive the potential of a rate hike, and does this mean that the stock market is approaching its peak?</p><p>A: Sooner or later, the market will tell the central bank that we don't care, just add the rate hike. The market will always regain control of interest rates, and at that time, all stocks, real estate, loans, etc. will encounter major trouble, because after the market gets control, interest rates will become very high. I have already said that the supply of bonds is amazingly large now, and more bonds will come to the market in the future. Inflation is here too. These are the most basic fundamentals that will drive interest rates higher. As for central banks, they have lost control many times in the past, and this time they will eventually lose it. By then, the stock market will encounter the worst bear market of my life.</p><p>In 2008, the main problem with the stock market was that we were burdened with too much debt. However, since 2008 and until today, the debt has soared like a rocket. So the next time we encounter a bear market, it can only be much harsher than that one.</p><p>Q: We have seen that so far this year, the performance of emerging markets has not been as good as that of developed countries. What do you think is causing this? Also, what do higher interest rates mean for emerging markets and developed countries?</p><p>These things often originate at the edge of the market, where people don't pay much attention to it. We have now seen some banks in emerging markets and some small countries in trouble. In 2008, when Lehman Brothers went bankrupt, everyone knew the trouble was coming, but in fact, before that, the problem had been brewing in many markets around the world for months. However, although there are signs of problems, I haven't sold my stocks now, because there are still many stocks in many markets around the world that are not bubbled.</p><p>My expectation is that eventually everything will enter the bubble phase, but that may not be until later this year, or 2022, when it will also be the time for the finale, and we will encounter a terrible bear market. I'm not a doomsday prophet. I just want to say that the scale of debt today is even more alarming than it has been in 2008, and the next bear market will eclipse all other bear markets in history.</p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> source：<a href=\"https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s/ZQHN04kynwSMO59PKBpggQ\"> 腾讯美股</a></p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a8632dfa3f7d3fb56cea770ea3ec93e9","relate_stocks":{".DJI":"道琼斯"},"source_url":"https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s/ZQHN04kynwSMO59PKBpggQ","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1115482984","content_text":"罗杰斯说道：“2008年时，股市的问题主要是在于，我们背负了太多债务。可是，2008年之后直至今天，债务更火箭一般窜升。因此，下一次我们遇到熊市时，只能比那次严酷得多。”\n\n现在，债券已经处在泡沫当中，而许多股票也开始泡沫化，同样泡沫化的还有韩国、新西兰和许多其他地方的房市，唯有大宗商品价格还算低廉。近日接受采访时，传奇投资人罗杰斯（Jim Rogers）讨论了自己对商品投资的看法，并预言说，到2021年底或者2022年，所有一切都将彻底泡沫化，而接踵而至的熊市将令史上之前的所有熊市黯然失色。\n以下即访谈全文：\n问：近期，最重大的新闻之一就是，面对德尔塔变种病毒的来袭，美国企业界变得更加谨慎了。比如，亚马逊已经推迟了员工返回工作的时间表。可是看上去，市场似乎对疫情的全新威胁根本不以为然。\n答：我们都已经看到了，几乎世界任何地方的市场，价格都涨破了天际。这堪称是史无前例，因为全世界的央行印出了这么多的钞票。我并不是什么选时操作的行家里手，但是我确信，一切都会在未来几个月画上句号。我们将目睹前所未有的一幕。\n问：与股票有所不同，商品价格看上去对于疫情相关新闻更加敏感一些，比如原油价格当即就做出了反应。疫情是否可能会给原材料价格、通货膨胀，乃至企业盈利带去一场骨牌效应？\n答：事实上，当前全世界价格最低廉的资产门类正是大宗商品。全世界的债市都已经处在泡沫当中。许多地方的股市也开始形成泡沫。韩国、新西兰和不少其他地方的房市也泡沫化了。不过，商品依然廉价。银的价格与历史最高点相比低了50%，石油价格也低了50%。我当然预测不了油价本周的具体变化，不过鉴于已知的储量持续减少，而压裂泡沫已经破灭，因此我觉得，未来几个月来说，石油市场预计还会呈现出强势。每一天每一周的情况难以预测，但是我们都知道，油价与历史最高点相比已经下跌了很多。\n问；你说储量减少，压裂泡沫破灭，这些都是供应面因素，但是需求面前景如何呢？这个世界正在转向电动汽车之类，逐渐远离化石燃料。难道这不是说明，石油的基本面已经不可能再那么强势了吗？\n答：确实，我们这个世界的未来属于电动汽车，这已经很清楚了，但是整个过程还需要很长的时间。老福特（Henry Ford）的太太就有一部电动汽车，她不喜欢内燃机，坚信电动汽车才标志着未来，但是说起来，那都是一百多年前的事情了。是的，真正意义上的电动汽车已经来了，但是变化也不可能一夜间完成。与此同时，石油储备还在持续下滑。我的意思当然不是要大家都赶快去炒石油，但是我对于石油价格确实没有放弃希望。\n问：那么你对油价的长期前景怎么看？到了怎样的情况下，你才会认定原油游戏真的到了落幕的时候？\n许多替代性能源都来到了我们面前，尤其是太阳能、风能、潮汐能等，但是这些真正发展起来都需要很长时间。我前面说了，油价距离历史最高点有50%的差距，而全世界的已探明储量都在持续下滑。压裂法的泡沫破灭了，而储量同时在减少。有鉴于此，如果油价因为供求关系的缘故在未来两三年内大涨，我是丝毫不会感到吃惊的。我们要记住，硬币是有两面的。电动汽车确实在发展，但是这需要时间，老福特的太太已经证明了这一点。\n问：农业大宗商品，尤其是食堂的情况怎样？这也和去化石能源有一定关系。印度总理莫迪现在正力推燃料乙醇汽车，他希望到2025年，所有的汽车燃料都能够混合80%乙醇。你对食糖的前景怎么看？\n答：说起乙醇燃料汽车，巴西人已经在努力发展了。美国人也在以玉米为原料开发。基于农产品的燃料完全是可行的。我们将拥有更多电动汽车，后者将令许多大宗商品的价格从中获益。电动汽车需要的铜、铅、镍都要数倍于普通汽车。同理，以食糖或者玉米或者其他农产品为燃料的汽车，也会令相应商品需求大增。石油的使用则是递减的态势。要交易大宗商品，我们有许多方法可以选择，而且还是前面说的那句话，大宗商品是2021年迄今为止所有主要资产当中价格最为低廉的。\n问：你一直是白银和黄金的长期牛派。让我们来回顾一下过去短短两周时间都发生了什么。美国国债的真实收益率跌到了新低，美元指数表现也很低迷。看上去，黄金价格涨势已经是万事俱备，只欠东风了，但是涨势却没有发生。你对此怎么看？\n答：我最近白银和黄金两者都没有买进，但是我要再强调一下，我不是一个好的交易者。我还在等待白银和黄金的盘整行情进一步深化。如果非要我现在就买进，与黄金相比，我会更多买进白银。白银较之历史最高点，当前的价位低了50%，而黄金的距离只有10%。总之，我在当下当然是都不会买进的，但是当我再度买进，我买进的白银估计要比黄金多得多。\n问：你还是像过去那样，认为美元是一个避风港，或者是你已经发现了其他的资产门类，后者作为避风港比美元更加出色？\n答：我依然持有美元。在近期的涨势前，美元已经走低了一段时间。当局面出现问题，人们就会去寻找避风港，我估计，他们至少未来一两次之内，还会投入美元的回报。只不过，我们必须知道，历史上，没有任何一种储备货币能够持续保持这种身份一百年或者一百五十年。美元拥有这种身份已经一段时间了，也许一切已经快到了尾声了。当然，这不会在今年发生，也不大可能在两三年内，但是考虑到美国债务负担如此惊人，美元的这个地位其实已经很脆弱了。\n谁能够代替美元？我并不知道。是的，包括我在内，许多人都投资了白银，但是我依然不知道现在世界上有哪种货币可以取代美元。当然，大家都在寻找美元的竞争对手，毕竟美国已经是全球历史上的头号债务国。\n问：你对利率未来的走向有何判断？在高通货膨胀前景的威胁之下，全球央行当下的低利率政策还能够延续多久？\n答：债券显然是处在泡沫当中的。在我们已知的世界历史上，债价从未如此昂贵，而且还需要看到，我们即将面对更高的利率。各大央行会绞尽脑汁，尽可能保持低利率，但是市场迟早会说我们不在乎了，我们不想再玩这场游戏了。\n央行银行家们想要尽可能保持低利率，但是各处都已经债如山积。债务供应量惊人，通货膨胀就要来了。所有这些基本面都指向了利率，我现在不买进也不做空，但是毫无疑问，利率迟早必须走高，也许不是这个季度，但是未来两三年里总是没有跑的。\n问：众所周知，欧洲央行已经明确表示，负利率将存在更长时间，英国央行也说，鉴于德尔塔变种病毒疫情爆发的麻烦，他们很难转向鹰派，而美国联储也表示，加息还是很远之后的事情。你觉得呢？市场是否已经开始感知到加息的潜在可能，而这是否意味着股市正在接近顶点？\n答：迟早会有那么一天，市场将告诉央行说，我们不在乎，该加息就加吧。市场总会重新获得利率的控制权，而到那时候，所有的股票、房地产、贷款等就将遇到重大的麻烦，因为市场得到控制权之后，利率将变得非常高。我已经说了，现在债券的供应量大到惊人，而且未来还将有更多债券来到市场上。通货膨胀也在这里了。这些都是最基本的基本面，将会推动利率走高。至于央行，他们过去也曾经多次失去控制权，而这一次最终也将失去，到那时候，股市就将遭遇我一生时间当中最可怕的熊市了。\n2008年时，股市的问题主要是在于，我们背负了太多债务。可是，2008年之后直至今天，债务更火箭一般窜升。因此，下一次我们遇到熊市时，只能比那次严酷得多。\n问：我们看到，今年迄今为止，新兴市场的表现是不及发达国家的。你觉得这是什么造成的？还有，更高的利率对于新兴市场和发达国家又各自意味着什么？\n这些事情往往都缘起于市场的边缘，人们不怎么重视的地方。我们现在已经看到新兴市场的一些银行和一些小国家遇到麻烦。2008年的时候，雷曼兄弟破产了，所有人就都知道麻烦来了，但是实际上，在那之前，问题已经在世界许多市场上酝酿了数月之久了。不过，虽然出现了问题的迹象，但是我现在并没有因此卖掉股票，因为在世界许多市场上，依然有不少股票并没有泡沫化。\n我的预期是，最终所有一切都会进入泡沫阶段，但是那也许要等到今年晚些时候，或者是2022年，那时也将是大结局到来的时间，我们将遭遇一场可怕的大熊市。我不是什么末日预言家，我只是要说，今天的债务规模比起2008年来还要更加惊人，而下一次熊市将令历史上所有其他熊市黯然失色。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{".DJI":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1705,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9941620177,"gmtCreate":1680203434100,"gmtModify":1680204840855,"author":{"id":"3564898834788124","authorId":"3564898834788124","name":"Xiaoranqi","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3564898834788124","authorIdStr":"3564898834788124"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/OPT/AMZN 20230519 110.0 CALL\">$AMZN 20230519 110.0 CALL$ </a>","listText":"<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/OPT/AMZN 20230519 110.0 CALL\">$AMZN 20230519 110.0 CALL$ </a>","text":"$AMZN 20230519 110.0 CALL$","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9941620177","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1241,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0}],"lives":[]}
