猫咪b personal page - To The Moon

猫咪b

猫咪b

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2021-08-25

$Opendoor Technologies Inc(OPEN)$when can break even?

2021-05-21

Agreed

The United States requires encrypted digital currency transactions exceeding $10,000 to be reported to the IRS

2021-05-07

I'm strongly agree...

Sorry, the original content has been removed

2021-09-01

Will up continuously????

2021-05-25

........

2021-05-20

Someone manipulate the market????

U.S. stocks continue to fall, Bitcoin is being sold wildly, and the Fed minutes will be released

2021-05-07

Rich ppl will do.....

After the storm of public opinion, who is still buying Tesla?

2021-05-07

I strongly agree.....

Sorry, the original content has been removed

2021-05-03

Really???

When will the global chip "shortage" last? Morgan Stanley: At least until 2022

2021-05-02

.....

Is the GDP of the United States strong or weak in the first quarter?

2021-03-26

Keep dropping??

Go to Tiger App to see more news

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up continuously????","listText":"Will up continuously????","text":"Will up continuously????","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/cc6d60b554fc381f41f27c2966fbeda3","width":"1080","height":"1920"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/816282654","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1853,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":837280856,"gmtCreate":1629893344275,"gmtModify":1676530164128,"author":{"id":"3565141264334143","authorId":"3565141264334143","name":"猫咪b","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e814c71340fd63db37fbcdc00197f975","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3565141264334143","idStr":"3565141264334143"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/OPEN\">$Opendoor Technologies Inc(OPEN)$</a>when can break even?","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/OPEN\">$Opendoor 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00:02","market":"fut","language":"zh","title":"The United States requires encrypted digital currency transactions exceeding $10,000 to be reported to the IRS","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1127507761","media":"老虎资讯综合","summary":"美国财政部表示，拜登政府加强税收合规的提议包括要求向美国国税局报告价值超过1万美元的加密货币转账。“与现金交易一样，获得公允市场价值超过1万美元加密货币资产的企业也将需要报告”美国财政部在周四发布的一份有关税收执行提案的报告中表示。美国财政部称，全面报告是必要的，以最大限度地减少将收入从新的信息报告制度中转移出来的动机和机会，虽然加密货币只占当前商业交易的一小部分。","content":"<p>The Biden administration's proposals to strengthen tax compliance include a requirement to report cryptocurrency transfers worth more than $10,000 to the IRS, the Treasury Department said.</p><p>\"As with cash transactions, businesses that acquire cryptocurrency assets with a fair market value of more than $10,000 will also be required to report,\" the U.S. Treasury Department said in a report on tax enforcement proposals released Thursday.</p><p>According to the U.S. Treasury Department, comprehensive reporting is necessary to minimize the incentive and opportunity to divert revenue from the new information reporting system, although cryptocurrencies only account for a small portion of current commercial transactions. The IRS added a line about cryptocurrencies to individual tax returns 1040 in 2020 to get more information about virtual currency transactions.</p><p>Bitcoin fell by about $600 in the short term and is now below $41,000 per coin. The blockchain sector of the U.S. stock market fell in the short term. Coinbase's gains narrowed to 2.4%, the ninth city's gains narrowed to 1.7%, Canaan Technology's gains narrowed to 1.17%, and Riot Blockchain fell more than 1%.</p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>The United States requires encrypted digital currency transactions exceeding $10,000 to be reported to the IRS</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nThe United States requires encrypted digital currency transactions exceeding $10,000 to be reported to the IRS\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/102\">\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">老虎资讯综合 </p>\n<p class=\"h-time smaller\">2021-05-21 00:02</p>\n</div>\n</a>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>The Biden administration's proposals to strengthen tax compliance include a requirement to report cryptocurrency transfers worth more than $10,000 to the IRS, the Treasury Department said.</p><p>\"As with cash transactions, businesses that acquire cryptocurrency assets with a fair market value of more than $10,000 will also be required to report,\" the U.S. Treasury Department said in a report on tax enforcement proposals released Thursday.</p><p>According to the U.S. Treasury Department, comprehensive reporting is necessary to minimize the incentive and opportunity to divert revenue from the new information reporting system, although cryptocurrencies only account for a small portion of current commercial transactions. The IRS added a line about cryptocurrencies to individual tax returns 1040 in 2020 to get more information about virtual currency transactions.</p><p>Bitcoin fell by about $600 in the short term and is now below $41,000 per coin. The blockchain sector of the U.S. stock market fell in the short term. Coinbase's gains narrowed to 2.4%, the ninth city's gains narrowed to 1.7%, Canaan Technology's gains narrowed to 1.17%, and Riot Blockchain fell more than 1%.</p>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/414360f2ef7b5c785cb936b4a9b53a44","relate_stocks":{"COIN":"Coinbase Global, Inc.",".DJI":"道琼斯",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index","PYPL":"PayPal",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite","TSLA":"特斯拉","GBTC":"比特币ETF-Grayscale"},"is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1127507761","content_text":"美国财政部表示，拜登政府加强税收合规的提议包括要求向美国国税局报告价值超过1万美元的加密货币转账。“与现金交易一样，获得公允市场价值超过1万美元加密货币资产的企业也将需要报告”美国财政部在周四发布的一份有关税收执行提案的报告中表示。美国财政部称，全面报告是必要的，以最大限度地减少将收入从新的信息报告制度中转移出来的动机和机会，虽然加密货币只占当前商业交易的一小部分。美国国税局于2020年在个人纳税申报单1040中增加了一行关于加密货币的内容，以获得更多关于虚拟货币交易的信息。比特币短线走低约600美元，现跌破41000美元/枚。美股区块链板块短线走低，Coinbase涨幅缩窄至2.4%，第九城市涨幅收窄至1.7%，嘉楠科技涨幅收窄至1.17%，Riot Blockchain跌超1%。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"BTCmain":0.9,".DJI":0.9,".SPX":0.9,"SQ":0.9,".IXIC":0.9,"XBTmain":0.9,"TSLA":0.9,"MBTmain":0.9,"PYPL":0.9,"GBTC":0.9,"COIN":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1696,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":197845101,"gmtCreate":1621447089203,"gmtModify":1704357793908,"author":{"id":"3565141264334143","authorId":"3565141264334143","name":"猫咪b","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e814c71340fd63db37fbcdc00197f975","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3565141264334143","idStr":"3565141264334143"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Someone manipulate the market????","listText":"Someone manipulate the market????","text":"Someone manipulate the market????","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/197845101","repostId":"1152189230","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1152189230","kind":"news","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"中国大陆领先的金融数据、信息和软件服务企业，总部位于上海陆家嘴金融中心。","home_visible":1,"media_name":"Wind万得","id":"99","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c71e30d1317b4a5cb20a41998e10ac68"},"pubTimestamp":1621437443,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1152189230?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2021-05-19 23:17","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"U.S. stocks continue to fall, Bitcoin is being sold wildly, and the Fed minutes will be released","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1152189230","media":"Wind万得","summary":"美股周三与大宗商品、欧洲股市和比特币一道下跌，因投资者风险偏好减弱。\n标准普尔500指数下跌1.3%，道琼斯工业指数下跌1.1%，主要股指延续近期跌势。纳斯达克综合指数下跌1.7%，科技股在股市开盘后","content":"<p>U.S. stocks fell along with commodities, European stocks and Bitcoin on Wednesday as investors' risk appetite weakened.</p><p>The S&P 500 fell 1.3% and the Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 1.1% as the major indexes extended their recent losses. The Nasdaq Composite dropped 1.7% as tech stocks fell after the market opened. Commodity markets also fell back. Futures for West Texas Intermediate, the main U.S. crude oil variety, fell 2.2% to $64.05 a barrel.</p><p>Investors turned to less risky assets such as bonds as safe havens, causing the yield on 10-year U.S. Treasury Bond to fall to 1.639% from 1.641% on Tuesday. When bond prices rise, yields fall.</p><p>Stocks have soared since March 2020, in part due to the Federal Reserve's support for markets and the economy since the early days of the pandemic. Now, the accelerated pace of inflation has some investors wondering whether the Federal Reserve will scale back bond purchases and raise interest rates. While Fed officials have said the economy remains in recovery mode and requires stimulus from the Federal Reserve, that prospect has caused shocks in stocks and other risky assets in recent weeks.</p><p>Nadège Dufossé, head of cross-asset strategy at Candriam, said the key driver now is central banks. The Fed is expected to delay providing guidance on tapering stimulus until September, when the data should provide a clearer picture of the inflation outlook. Stocks are likely to be volatile, with a possible 10% pullback, Dufossé said. The S&P 500 closed just 2.5% below its all-time high on Tuesday, despite falling in five of the past seven sessions.</p><p>According to CoinDesk data, Bitcoin has fallen 21% to $34,371.18 since 5 p.m. ET on Tuesday, suggesting that investors are pulling back from speculative bets that have emerged in large numbers this year. This is the lowest price since February this year. This also means that in<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TSLA\">Tesla</a>After announcing that it would buy $1.5 billion worth of cryptocurrency, Bitcoin has erased all gains. Bitcoin has fallen more than 50% since hitting an all-time high of $64,829 in mid-April.</p><p>Investors will look for clues on the Fed's thinking in the minutes of the April meeting due at 2 p.m. ET. Officials voted unanimously to maintain Fed policies aimed at driving down borrowing costs, with Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell saying the recovery remains uneven and incomplete.</p><p>Since then, data showing a sharp rise in inflation in April has sparked stock market jitters. Technology stocks are beneficiaries of low interest rates because their earnings are expected to extend over a long period of time and are particularly sensitive to the prospect of rising borrowing costs.</p><p>Paul Jackson, head of asset allocation research at Invesco, said, \"The market has some concerns about the actions the Federal Reserve may take in the coming months and quarters in tapering its asset purchase program.\" \"The U.S. economy is rebounding very, very strongly,\" Jackson said. \"That in itself should make Jackson feel more comfortable because it doesn't need to provide as much support as it does now.\"</p><p>In Europe, the Stoxx Europe 600 fell 1.9%, dragged down by sectors such as basic resources, oil and gas and technology stocks.</p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>U.S. stocks continue to fall, Bitcoin is being sold wildly, and the Fed minutes will be released</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nU.S. stocks continue to fall, Bitcoin is being sold wildly, and the Fed minutes will be released\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/99\">\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/c71e30d1317b4a5cb20a41998e10ac68);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">Wind万得 </p>\n<p class=\"h-time smaller\">2021-05-19 23:17</p>\n</div>\n</a>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>U.S. stocks fell along with commodities, European stocks and Bitcoin on Wednesday as investors' risk appetite weakened.</p><p>The S&P 500 fell 1.3% and the Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 1.1% as the major indexes extended their recent losses. The Nasdaq Composite dropped 1.7% as tech stocks fell after the market opened. Commodity markets also fell back. Futures for West Texas Intermediate, the main U.S. crude oil variety, fell 2.2% to $64.05 a barrel.</p><p>Investors turned to less risky assets such as bonds as safe havens, causing the yield on 10-year U.S. Treasury Bond to fall to 1.639% from 1.641% on Tuesday. When bond prices rise, yields fall.</p><p>Stocks have soared since March 2020, in part due to the Federal Reserve's support for markets and the economy since the early days of the pandemic. Now, the accelerated pace of inflation has some investors wondering whether the Federal Reserve will scale back bond purchases and raise interest rates. While Fed officials have said the economy remains in recovery mode and requires stimulus from the Federal Reserve, that prospect has caused shocks in stocks and other risky assets in recent weeks.</p><p>Nadège Dufossé, head of cross-asset strategy at Candriam, said the key driver now is central banks. The Fed is expected to delay providing guidance on tapering stimulus until September, when the data should provide a clearer picture of the inflation outlook. Stocks are likely to be volatile, with a possible 10% pullback, Dufossé said. The S&P 500 closed just 2.5% below its all-time high on Tuesday, despite falling in five of the past seven sessions.</p><p>According to CoinDesk data, Bitcoin has fallen 21% to $34,371.18 since 5 p.m. ET on Tuesday, suggesting that investors are pulling back from speculative bets that have emerged in large numbers this year. This is the lowest price since February this year. This also means that in<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TSLA\">Tesla</a>After announcing that it would buy $1.5 billion worth of cryptocurrency, Bitcoin has erased all gains. Bitcoin has fallen more than 50% since hitting an all-time high of $64,829 in mid-April.</p><p>Investors will look for clues on the Fed's thinking in the minutes of the April meeting due at 2 p.m. ET. Officials voted unanimously to maintain Fed policies aimed at driving down borrowing costs, with Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell saying the recovery remains uneven and incomplete.</p><p>Since then, data showing a sharp rise in inflation in April has sparked stock market jitters. Technology stocks are beneficiaries of low interest rates because their earnings are expected to extend over a long period of time and are particularly sensitive to the prospect of rising borrowing costs.</p><p>Paul Jackson, head of asset allocation research at Invesco, said, \"The market has some concerns about the actions the Federal Reserve may take in the coming months and quarters in tapering its asset purchase program.\" \"The U.S. economy is rebounding very, very strongly,\" Jackson said. \"That in itself should make Jackson feel more comfortable because it doesn't need to provide as much support as it does now.\"</p><p>In Europe, the Stoxx Europe 600 fell 1.9%, dragged down by sectors such as basic resources, oil and gas and technology stocks.</p>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a82005fdd5a20870413111b3adc1a547","relate_stocks":{"513500":"标普500ETF",".DJI":"道琼斯",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite","SPXU":"三倍做空标普500ETF-ProShares","SQQQ":"纳指三倍做空ETF","PSQ":"做空纳斯达克100指数ETF-ProShares","SPY":"标普500ETF","SSO":"2倍做多标普500ETF-ProShares","CAN":"嘉楠科技","QLD":"2倍做多纳斯达克100指数ETF-ProShares",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index","DXD":"两倍做空道琼30指数ETF-ProShares","SH":"做空标普500-Proshares","UDOW":"三倍做多道指30ETF-ProShares","EBON":"亿邦国际","DDM":"2倍做多道指ETF-ProShares"},"is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1152189230","content_text":"美股周三与大宗商品、欧洲股市和比特币一道下跌，因投资者风险偏好减弱。\n标准普尔500指数下跌1.3%，道琼斯工业指数下跌1.1%，主要股指延续近期跌势。纳斯达克综合指数下跌1.7%，科技股在股市开盘后下跌。大宗商品市场也出现回落。美国主要原油品种西德克萨斯中质原油(West Texas Intermediate)期货价格下跌2.2%，至每桶64.05美元。\n投资者转向债券等风险较小的资产避险，致使10年期美国国债收益率从周二的1.641%降至1.639%。当债券价格上涨时，收益率会下降。\n股市自2020年3月以来一路飙升，部分原因是美联储自疫情爆发初期以来对市场和经济支持。现在，通胀步伐加快让一些投资者开始怀疑，美联储是否会缩减债券购买规模并提高利率。尽管美联储官员曾表示，经济仍处于复苏模式，需要美联储采取刺激措施，但这一前景已导致股市和其他高风险资产近几周出现震荡。\nCandriam跨资产策略主管Nadège Dufossé表示，现在关键推动因素是央行。预计美联储将推迟到9月份才提供有关缩减刺激计划指引，届时数据应能更清晰地展现通胀前景。Dufossé说，股市可能会波动，可能会出现10%回调。标普500指数周二收盘仅比历史高点低2.5%，尽管过去七个交易日中有五个交易日下跌。\n据CoinDesk数据，自美国东部时间周二下午5点以来，比特币已下跌21%，至34371.18美元，这表明投资者正在从今年大量出现的投机押注中撤出。这是今年2月以来最低价格。这也意味着，在特斯拉宣布将购买价值15亿美元的加密货币之后，比特币已经抹去所有涨幅。自4月中旬创下64829美元历史高点以来，比特币已经跌逾50%。\n投资者将在美国东部时间下午2点公布的4月会议纪要中寻找有关美联储想法的线索。官员们一致投票决定维持美联储旨在压低借贷成本的政策，美联储主席鲍威尔表示，复苏仍不均衡且不完整。\n自那以来，数据显示4月份通胀率大幅上升，引发了股市不安。科技股是低利率受益者，因为其收益预计会延续很长一段时间，对借贷成本上升前景特别敏感。\nInvesco资产配置研究主管Paul Jackson表示，\"市场对美联储未来几个月和几个季度在缩减资产购买计划方面可能采取的行动有些担忧。\" “美国经济正在非常、非常强劲地反弹，”杰克逊说。“这本身应该会让Jackson感到更舒服，因为它不需要提供像现在这样多的支持。”\n欧洲方面，斯托克欧洲600指数(Stoxx Europe 600)下跌1.9%，受基础资源、油气和科技股等板块拖累。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"513500":0.9,".DJI":0.9,"MNQmain":0.9,"SQQQ":0.9,".SPX":0.9,"CAN":0.9,"UDOW":0.9,"QLD":0.9,"EBON":0.9,"DXD":0.9,"DDM":0.9,"SH":0.9,".IXIC":0.9,"SSO":0.9,"PSQ":0.9,"BTCmain":0.9,"SPY":0.9,"XBTmain":0.9,"SPXU":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1391,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":104295263,"gmtCreate":1620391956952,"gmtModify":1704342994695,"author":{"id":"3565141264334143","authorId":"3565141264334143","name":"猫咪b","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e814c71340fd63db37fbcdc00197f975","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3565141264334143","idStr":"3565141264334143"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Rich ppl will do.....","listText":"Rich ppl will do.....","text":"Rich ppl will do.....","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/104295263","repostId":"1174893125","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1174893125","kind":"news","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"既有深度，又有响度，研究古典互联网。","home_visible":1,"media_name":"深响","id":"1038713350","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f5b431abf34240f5bf6064f88f02fa9d"},"pubTimestamp":1620383316,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1174893125?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2021-05-07 18:28","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"After the storm of public opinion, who is still buying Tesla?","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1174893125","media":"深响","summary":"特斯拉的潜在客户会因为此次事件远离它吗？","content":"<p>The ultra-long \"standby\" Tesla rights protection incident has made the latest progress.</p><p>Recently, Ms. Tesla Car Advocate in Anyang, Henan Province issued a statement saying that without any evidence, some false statements made by Tesla and Tao Lin, Vice President of External Affairs of Tesla, have had a serious impact on her personal and family's work and life. In this regard, she has submitted a civil complaint to the court, suing Tesla and Tao Lin.</p><p>After triggering a \"storm of public opinion\", most people are waiting to see Tesla's \"joke\". After all, there have been precedents before. In 2018, Dongfeng Honda's sales fell sharply due to the impact of the \"engine door\" incident. Among them, Dongfeng Honda's sales volume decreased by 13.4% in the first half of 2018. At that time, the total automobile sales in the Chinese market maintained a year-on-year growth of 4%, and Dongfeng Honda was also one of the few automobile manufacturers whose sales declined. Throughout 2018, Honda CR-V sales cut in half, dragging down Dongfeng Honda's overall sales in 2018 by 4.1% year-on-year.</p><p>However, before that, Tesla had just handed over a beautiful \"report card\". In Q1 of 2021, Tesla's total delivery volume was 185,000 vehicles, a year-on-year increase of 108.9%, setting a record high; Revenue was US $10.389 billion, a year-on-year increase of 73.6%; The net profit attributable to ordinary shareholders under Non-GAAP was 1.052 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 363.4%.</p><p>Among them, Tesla delivered 69,000 vehicles in the Chinese market in the first quarter, three times that of the same period last year, accounting for nearly 37% of global sales; Revenue in China reached US $3.043 billion, a significant increase of 238% from US $900 million in the same period last year, accounting for 29.3% of Tesla's revenue in the first quarter. The Chinese market is still Tesla's second largest market in the world, but its scale with the US market has further shrunk.</p><p>Will potential customers of Tesla stay away from it because of this incident? With such questions in mind, \"Shenxiang\" recently visited several Tesla experience stores.</p><p><b>The number of people entering the store does not decrease</b></p><p>Tesla has been attracting much attention since it entered the Chinese market, and it seems to have a \"fire-prone constitution\". According to incomplete statistics, since 2014, the number of hot searches on Tesla has exceeded 230 times, far exceeding other car companies.</p><p>In this rights protection incident, unlike the \"verbal criticism\" on the Internet, the atmosphere of Tesla owners in the \"Eye of the Storm\" is relatively calm. A car owner said that if Tesla really has potential safety hazards, this incident is \"demining\" for the car owner; Even if not, I believe the service will be improved. \"Musk is an extreme molecule. With such a madman's company, everything is possible for its products, and good or bad is not unusual.\"</p><p>At present, the sales data for April has not yet been released, so the direct impact of rights protection on sales has not yet been reflected. However, \"Shenxiang\" recently visited several Tesla experience stores including Beijing Parkview Fangcaodi and South Fourth Ring Middle Road and found that the number of customers entering the store has not been greatly affected. In some stores, within 40 minutes, about 7 groups of guests entered the store to experience it.</p><p>At the same time, a number of Tesla employees also said that although they were deeply caught in the whirlpool of public opinion, the order situation was not greatly affected. \"Instead, they made another wave of advertisements for Tesla, which was almost'whoring for nothing '\".</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/51753458e311d7ce553a2768168a8034\" tg-width=\"550\" tg-height=\"412\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>In addition, car owners who have recently ordered their cars may find that they have to wait longer to get their cars. Some netizens said that when ordering a car on April 20th, it showed that it would take 3-5 weeks to pick up the car, but now it shows that it will take 5-7 weeks. \"I originally expected someone to unsubscribe or delay picking up the car, so that I could mention it earlier.\"</p><p>However, while Tesla is under \"siege\", car owners and prospective car owners are also under tremendous pressure, and some potential consumers do choose to wait and see. After all, in addition to being a means of transportation, the car also has a social function.</p><p>Some netizens said on the forum, \"Hurry up and solve it, otherwise the car owner will be scolded, and I will be helpless. If a person asks me why I still drive a Tesla, I will be anxious\"; \"I went to see the Model 3 today, but let's wait and see. After all, safety comes first.\"</p><p>At the same time, Tesla also issued a statement saying that in the past few days, all Tesla riders have been under pressure that they should not bear, and they are extremely sorry for this. But subtly, under this Weibo, the most commented one is \"How long have you been in this situation?\"</p><p>Indeed, to be a Tesla owner, you need to have a \"strong\" heart. Previously, Tesla made several price cuts in order to increase sales as soon as possible. According to incomplete statistics, Tesla has adjusted prices more than 10 times since February 2019.</p><p>Although this will drive new consumers to place orders, it will also make old car owners feel that their feelings are \"hurt\", and some car owners even go to Tesla stores to defend their rights. Netizens like to call Tesla owners \"leeks\" and \"cut\" them when needed. The only difference is, are you a \"new leek\" or an \"old leek\"?</p><p>In contrast, the price system of traditional car companies first sets a relatively stable official guide price. During the specific sales process, each 4S store will give some discounts according to the manufacturer's policy and sales target. Because of the public official guide price and the less transparent actual sales price, a certain balance is maintained between new and old car owners.</p><p>In view of the recent pressure on car owners and the May Day holiday, Tesla has launched benefits for new and old car owners: 45 days of free use of EAP (Enhanced Automatic Assisted Driving), free use of super charging stations during the May Day holiday, and replacement of air-conditioning filters 25% off. Behind this is to appease the emotions of old car owners on the one hand, and to stimulate consumers to place orders as soon as possible on the other hand.</p><p><b>Who's Buying Tesla?</b></p><p>Tesla officially entered China in April 2014, when Musk came to China for the first time to deliver products to the first batch of car owners. The first batch of car owners are eight entrepreneurs including Wang Dongfeng, Li Xiang, Yu Yongfu, Pan Yanming, Xu Liang and Dong Xiaoli. In addition, IT technology leaders such as Lei Jun and Cao Guowei are also the first fans of Tesla.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c1bfb0de5018bf54e4ea94b350984b44\" tg-width=\"550\" tg-height=\"366\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>In the following years, Tesla's development in China mainly went through three stages:</p><p>The first stage was from 2014 to 2019. At that time, sales in China were mainly imported Model S and Model X, with monthly sales hovering around 4,000 units;</p><p>In the second stage, from 2019 to 2020, Model 3 will be officially localized, the price will enter the range below 300,000, and the sales volume will stabilize at more than 10,000 units, with the highest exceeding 20,000 units;</p><p>The third stage is from 2021 to the present. With the launch of the domestically produced Model Y, the sales volume in the first quarter is three times that of the same period last year. In particular, the sales volume in March was 35,400 vehicles, setting a new monthly sales record in China.</p><p>At present, Tesla's cumulative sales in China have exceeded 250,000 vehicles, so who is buying Tesla?</p><p>From a geographical point of view, Beishangguang is Tesla's main \"position\". According to compulsory traffic insurance data, in 2020, the number of Tesla vehicles registered nationwide will be 139,000, of which 33,000, 26,000, 17,000, and 14,000 will be registered in Shanghai, Guangdong, Zhejiang, and Beijing respectively. The proportions are 23.7%, 18.5%, 12.4%, and 10.2% respectively, totaling 64.7%. This also means that the areas with high demand for Tesla are still the areas with relatively developed and restricted licenses in the east and coast.</p><p>In terms of the age of car owners, according to the NetEase Auto survey, Tesla owners are 30.3 years old, which is lower than the user base of many car brands. Among them, car owners aged 31 to 40 accounted for 56%, 25 to 30 accounted for 20%, and even the number of users aged 18 to 24 accounted for 3%. This also means that young people have a relatively high acceptance of Tesla.</p><p>From a professional point of view, Tesla owners are mostly engaged in the digital, technology, electronics and Internet industries. They have a certain understanding of the latest electric vehicles and new energy technologies, and they are more tolerant of some minor problems that may arise. The ability is also stronger, and many car owners even laugh at themselves as \"leeks\".</p><p>It is worth mentioning that 83% of Tesla owners own two or more cars, and electric cars are not the first car. Only 17% of car owners regard Tesla as their family's first car. This is mainly due to the number restrictions and current policies in cities such as Beijing, Shanghai and Guangzhou, which have given birth to the needs of these users.</p><p>Although Tesla has suffered various \"social beatings\" due to price cuts or tough remarks, in the long run, sales will not be greatly affected. Behind this is the law of \"true fragrance\".</p><p>Currently, Tesla's models on sale are divided into four models: Model 3, Model Y, Model X, and Model S. Among them, Model 3 and Model Y are its main models. The competitors of Tesla's Model 3 are not domestic new energy brands, but luxury mid-sized cars such as BMW 3 Series, Mercedes-Benz C-Class, and Audi A4; The \"rivals\" of Model Y are BMW X3, Mercedes-Benz GLC and Audi Q5L.</p><p>From a horizontal comparison, Model 3 and Model Y have obvious advantages in power performance, configuration and price except for their slightly inferior performance in terms of space. Among them, the maximum power and torque of the Tesla Model 3 standard version are higher than those of competing models equipped with traditional powertrains, and it can accelerate faster from 100 kilometers to 100 kilometers; In terms of price, the standard range version of Model 3 is 19%, 14% and 19% cheaper than the low-end versions of Mercedes-Benz C Series, BMW 3 Series, and Audi A4; From the configuration point of view, all Model 3 series are equipped with active safety systems as standard, and the safety level is significantly better than competing models.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/89b91c64441840bf2d3250b5605b683f\" tg-width=\"550\" tg-height=\"412\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>The market is also tilting towards Tesla, and this trend has begun to show itself in the US market. It is understood that in the U.S. market in 2020, Model 3 sales (120,000 units) have surpassed the combined sales of the three competing products (90,000 units); Although Model Y is still in the climbing period (70,000 units), it also surpasses the best-selling BMW X3 among the three competing products (60,000 units), and there is still great potential for improvement in the future.</p><p>According to the \"temper\" of Musk and Tesla, there may be more \"noise\" in the future, whether it will bring praise or criticism. However, China also needs such a \"catfish\", not only the new energy vehicle industry chain, but also the consumption habits and culture of electric vehicles.</p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>After the storm of public opinion, who is still buying Tesla?</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nAfter the storm of public opinion, who is still buying Tesla?\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/1038713350\">\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/f5b431abf34240f5bf6064f88f02fa9d);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">深响 </p>\n<p class=\"h-time smaller\">2021-05-07 18:28</p>\n</div>\n</a>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>The ultra-long \"standby\" Tesla rights protection incident has made the latest progress.</p><p>Recently, Ms. Tesla Car Advocate in Anyang, Henan Province issued a statement saying that without any evidence, some false statements made by Tesla and Tao Lin, Vice President of External Affairs of Tesla, have had a serious impact on her personal and family's work and life. In this regard, she has submitted a civil complaint to the court, suing Tesla and Tao Lin.</p><p>After triggering a \"storm of public opinion\", most people are waiting to see Tesla's \"joke\". After all, there have been precedents before. In 2018, Dongfeng Honda's sales fell sharply due to the impact of the \"engine door\" incident. Among them, Dongfeng Honda's sales volume decreased by 13.4% in the first half of 2018. At that time, the total automobile sales in the Chinese market maintained a year-on-year growth of 4%, and Dongfeng Honda was also one of the few automobile manufacturers whose sales declined. Throughout 2018, Honda CR-V sales cut in half, dragging down Dongfeng Honda's overall sales in 2018 by 4.1% year-on-year.</p><p>However, before that, Tesla had just handed over a beautiful \"report card\". In Q1 of 2021, Tesla's total delivery volume was 185,000 vehicles, a year-on-year increase of 108.9%, setting a record high; Revenue was US $10.389 billion, a year-on-year increase of 73.6%; The net profit attributable to ordinary shareholders under Non-GAAP was 1.052 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 363.4%.</p><p>Among them, Tesla delivered 69,000 vehicles in the Chinese market in the first quarter, three times that of the same period last year, accounting for nearly 37% of global sales; Revenue in China reached US $3.043 billion, a significant increase of 238% from US $900 million in the same period last year, accounting for 29.3% of Tesla's revenue in the first quarter. The Chinese market is still Tesla's second largest market in the world, but its scale with the US market has further shrunk.</p><p>Will potential customers of Tesla stay away from it because of this incident? With such questions in mind, \"Shenxiang\" recently visited several Tesla experience stores.</p><p><b>The number of people entering the store does not decrease</b></p><p>Tesla has been attracting much attention since it entered the Chinese market, and it seems to have a \"fire-prone constitution\". According to incomplete statistics, since 2014, the number of hot searches on Tesla has exceeded 230 times, far exceeding other car companies.</p><p>In this rights protection incident, unlike the \"verbal criticism\" on the Internet, the atmosphere of Tesla owners in the \"Eye of the Storm\" is relatively calm. A car owner said that if Tesla really has potential safety hazards, this incident is \"demining\" for the car owner; Even if not, I believe the service will be improved. \"Musk is an extreme molecule. With such a madman's company, everything is possible for its products, and good or bad is not unusual.\"</p><p>At present, the sales data for April has not yet been released, so the direct impact of rights protection on sales has not yet been reflected. However, \"Shenxiang\" recently visited several Tesla experience stores including Beijing Parkview Fangcaodi and South Fourth Ring Middle Road and found that the number of customers entering the store has not been greatly affected. In some stores, within 40 minutes, about 7 groups of guests entered the store to experience it.</p><p>At the same time, a number of Tesla employees also said that although they were deeply caught in the whirlpool of public opinion, the order situation was not greatly affected. \"Instead, they made another wave of advertisements for Tesla, which was almost'whoring for nothing '\".</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/51753458e311d7ce553a2768168a8034\" tg-width=\"550\" tg-height=\"412\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>In addition, car owners who have recently ordered their cars may find that they have to wait longer to get their cars. Some netizens said that when ordering a car on April 20th, it showed that it would take 3-5 weeks to pick up the car, but now it shows that it will take 5-7 weeks. \"I originally expected someone to unsubscribe or delay picking up the car, so that I could mention it earlier.\"</p><p>However, while Tesla is under \"siege\", car owners and prospective car owners are also under tremendous pressure, and some potential consumers do choose to wait and see. After all, in addition to being a means of transportation, the car also has a social function.</p><p>Some netizens said on the forum, \"Hurry up and solve it, otherwise the car owner will be scolded, and I will be helpless. If a person asks me why I still drive a Tesla, I will be anxious\"; \"I went to see the Model 3 today, but let's wait and see. After all, safety comes first.\"</p><p>At the same time, Tesla also issued a statement saying that in the past few days, all Tesla riders have been under pressure that they should not bear, and they are extremely sorry for this. But subtly, under this Weibo, the most commented one is \"How long have you been in this situation?\"</p><p>Indeed, to be a Tesla owner, you need to have a \"strong\" heart. Previously, Tesla made several price cuts in order to increase sales as soon as possible. According to incomplete statistics, Tesla has adjusted prices more than 10 times since February 2019.</p><p>Although this will drive new consumers to place orders, it will also make old car owners feel that their feelings are \"hurt\", and some car owners even go to Tesla stores to defend their rights. Netizens like to call Tesla owners \"leeks\" and \"cut\" them when needed. The only difference is, are you a \"new leek\" or an \"old leek\"?</p><p>In contrast, the price system of traditional car companies first sets a relatively stable official guide price. During the specific sales process, each 4S store will give some discounts according to the manufacturer's policy and sales target. Because of the public official guide price and the less transparent actual sales price, a certain balance is maintained between new and old car owners.</p><p>In view of the recent pressure on car owners and the May Day holiday, Tesla has launched benefits for new and old car owners: 45 days of free use of EAP (Enhanced Automatic Assisted Driving), free use of super charging stations during the May Day holiday, and replacement of air-conditioning filters 25% off. Behind this is to appease the emotions of old car owners on the one hand, and to stimulate consumers to place orders as soon as possible on the other hand.</p><p><b>Who's Buying Tesla?</b></p><p>Tesla officially entered China in April 2014, when Musk came to China for the first time to deliver products to the first batch of car owners. The first batch of car owners are eight entrepreneurs including Wang Dongfeng, Li Xiang, Yu Yongfu, Pan Yanming, Xu Liang and Dong Xiaoli. In addition, IT technology leaders such as Lei Jun and Cao Guowei are also the first fans of Tesla.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c1bfb0de5018bf54e4ea94b350984b44\" tg-width=\"550\" tg-height=\"366\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>In the following years, Tesla's development in China mainly went through three stages:</p><p>The first stage was from 2014 to 2019. At that time, sales in China were mainly imported Model S and Model X, with monthly sales hovering around 4,000 units;</p><p>In the second stage, from 2019 to 2020, Model 3 will be officially localized, the price will enter the range below 300,000, and the sales volume will stabilize at more than 10,000 units, with the highest exceeding 20,000 units;</p><p>The third stage is from 2021 to the present. With the launch of the domestically produced Model Y, the sales volume in the first quarter is three times that of the same period last year. In particular, the sales volume in March was 35,400 vehicles, setting a new monthly sales record in China.</p><p>At present, Tesla's cumulative sales in China have exceeded 250,000 vehicles, so who is buying Tesla?</p><p>From a geographical point of view, Beishangguang is Tesla's main \"position\". According to compulsory traffic insurance data, in 2020, the number of Tesla vehicles registered nationwide will be 139,000, of which 33,000, 26,000, 17,000, and 14,000 will be registered in Shanghai, Guangdong, Zhejiang, and Beijing respectively. The proportions are 23.7%, 18.5%, 12.4%, and 10.2% respectively, totaling 64.7%. This also means that the areas with high demand for Tesla are still the areas with relatively developed and restricted licenses in the east and coast.</p><p>In terms of the age of car owners, according to the NetEase Auto survey, Tesla owners are 30.3 years old, which is lower than the user base of many car brands. Among them, car owners aged 31 to 40 accounted for 56%, 25 to 30 accounted for 20%, and even the number of users aged 18 to 24 accounted for 3%. This also means that young people have a relatively high acceptance of Tesla.</p><p>From a professional point of view, Tesla owners are mostly engaged in the digital, technology, electronics and Internet industries. They have a certain understanding of the latest electric vehicles and new energy technologies, and they are more tolerant of some minor problems that may arise. The ability is also stronger, and many car owners even laugh at themselves as \"leeks\".</p><p>It is worth mentioning that 83% of Tesla owners own two or more cars, and electric cars are not the first car. Only 17% of car owners regard Tesla as their family's first car. This is mainly due to the number restrictions and current policies in cities such as Beijing, Shanghai and Guangzhou, which have given birth to the needs of these users.</p><p>Although Tesla has suffered various \"social beatings\" due to price cuts or tough remarks, in the long run, sales will not be greatly affected. Behind this is the law of \"true fragrance\".</p><p>Currently, Tesla's models on sale are divided into four models: Model 3, Model Y, Model X, and Model S. Among them, Model 3 and Model Y are its main models. The competitors of Tesla's Model 3 are not domestic new energy brands, but luxury mid-sized cars such as BMW 3 Series, Mercedes-Benz C-Class, and Audi A4; The \"rivals\" of Model Y are BMW X3, Mercedes-Benz GLC and Audi Q5L.</p><p>From a horizontal comparison, Model 3 and Model Y have obvious advantages in power performance, configuration and price except for their slightly inferior performance in terms of space. Among them, the maximum power and torque of the Tesla Model 3 standard version are higher than those of competing models equipped with traditional powertrains, and it can accelerate faster from 100 kilometers to 100 kilometers; In terms of price, the standard range version of Model 3 is 19%, 14% and 19% cheaper than the low-end versions of Mercedes-Benz C Series, BMW 3 Series, and Audi A4; From the configuration point of view, all Model 3 series are equipped with active safety systems as standard, and the safety level is significantly better than competing models.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/89b91c64441840bf2d3250b5605b683f\" tg-width=\"550\" tg-height=\"412\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>The market is also tilting towards Tesla, and this trend has begun to show itself in the US market. It is understood that in the U.S. market in 2020, Model 3 sales (120,000 units) have surpassed the combined sales of the three competing products (90,000 units); Although Model Y is still in the climbing period (70,000 units), it also surpasses the best-selling BMW X3 among the three competing products (60,000 units), and there is still great potential for improvement in the future.</p><p>According to the \"temper\" of Musk and Tesla, there may be more \"noise\" in the future, whether it will bring praise or criticism. However, China also needs such a \"catfish\", not only the new energy vehicle industry chain, but also the consumption habits and culture of electric vehicles.</p>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3f7026718c9a78c88d8a7e2e09a6f862","relate_stocks":{"TSLA":"特斯拉"},"is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1174893125","content_text":"超长“待机”的特斯拉维权事件，又有了最新进展。\n近日，河南安阳特斯拉车主张女士发布一份声明称，在没有任何证据的情况下，特斯拉公司以及特斯拉对外事务副总裁陶琳发布的一些不实言论，已经对其个人以及家人的工作生活造成了严重的影响。对此，她已向法院递交民事起诉状，起诉特斯拉和陶琳。\n在引发“舆论风暴”后，大部分人都在等着看特斯拉“笑话”。毕竟，此前已经有先例。2018年，东风本田受“机油门”事件的影响，销量大幅下滑。其中，2018年上半年，东风本田的销量下跌13.4%。当时，中国市场汽车总销量保持着4%的同比增长，东风本田也是数不多销量下滑的汽车厂商之一。2018年全年，本田CR-V销量腰斩，拖累东风本田2018年的整体销量同比下滑4.1%。\n不过，在此之前，特斯拉刚交出一份靓丽的“成绩单”。2021年Q1，特斯拉总交付量为18.5万辆，同比增长108.9%，创下历史新高；营收为103.89亿美元，同比增幅达73.6%；实现Non-GAAP下归属于普通股东的净利润10.52亿元，同比增长363.4%。\n其中，一季度中国市场特斯拉交付量达6.9万辆，是去年同期的3倍，占全球销量的近37%；中国地区收入达到30.43亿美元，较去年同期的9亿美元大幅增长238%，占特斯拉一季度营收比例达29.3%。中国市场仍是特斯拉全球第二大市场，但与美国市场的规模进一步缩小。\n特斯拉的潜在客户会因为此次事件远离它吗？带着这样的疑问，“深响”近期走访了几家特斯拉体验店。\n入店人数不减\n特斯拉自进入中国市场后，一直备受关注，似乎有一种“易火体质”。据不完全统计，2014年至今，特斯拉上热搜的次数超过230次，远超其他车企。\n在此次维权事件中，与网络上的“口诛笔伐”不同，“暴风眼”中的特斯拉车主，气氛相对平静许多。一位车主表示，如果特斯拉真有安全隐患，这起事件对车主来说是“排雷”；即使没有，相信服务上也会有所提升，“马斯克是一个极致分子，拥有这样一个狂人的公司，其产品一切都有可能，好的坏的都不稀奇。”\n目前，4月的销售数据尚未出炉，所以维权对销量的直接影响还无从体现。不过，“深响”近期走访了北京侨福芳草地、南四环中路在内的几家特斯拉体验店后发现，其客户入店量并未受到太大影响。部分门店在40分钟内，大约有7组客人进店体验。\n同时，多位特斯拉员工也表示，虽然深陷舆论漩涡，但订单情况并未受太大影响，“反而给特斯拉又做了一波广告，几乎是‘白嫖’”。\n\n另外，最近定车的车主可能会发现，需要等待更长时间才能拿到车。有网友表示，4月20号订车时候，当时显示要3-5周就可以提车，但现在显示要5-7周，“本来还指望有人退订或推迟提车，自己好能早点提到车呢。”\n不过，在特斯拉遭遇“围攻”的同时，车主和准车主也承受着巨大的压力，的确有部分潜在消费者选择观望。毕竟，车除了是一种交通工具外，还多了一层社交的功能。\n有网友在论坛表示，“快点解决吧，要不然车主跟着挨骂，我就无奈了，是个人就问我怎么还开特斯拉，我都要急眼了”；“今天去看了下Model 3，不过还是先观望吧，毕竟安全第一嘛”。\n与此同时，特斯拉也发表声明称，过去几日，让所有特斯拉车友们承受了不该承受的压力，对此她们感到万分抱歉。但微妙的是，在这条微博下，评论最多的是“你这种情况多久了？”\n确实，当特斯拉车主，需要有“强大”的内心。此前，特斯拉为了尽快提升销量，进行了多次降价。据不完全统计，从2019年2月以来，特斯拉调价超过10次。\n这虽然会带动新消费者下单，但也让老车主觉得感情受到“伤害”，甚至部分车主跑到特斯拉门店维权。网友喜欢称呼特斯拉车主为“韭菜”，需要的时候就“割”一茬。唯一不同的是，你是“新韭菜”还是“老韭菜”？\n相比之下，传统车企的价格体系，首先是制定一个相对稳定的官方指导价，各家4S店在具体销售过程中，会根据厂家政策和销量目标给出部分折扣。因为公开的官方指导价，以及不太透明的实际销售价格，所以在新老车主之间维持了某种平衡。\n鉴于最近车主承受的压力和五一小长假，特斯拉推出了针对新老车主的福利：EAP（增强版自动辅助驾驶）45天免费使用权，五一假期超级充电站免费使用，空调滤芯更换7.5折。这背后是一方面安抚老车主的情绪，另一方面也希望能刺激消费者尽早下订单。\n谁在买特斯拉？\n特斯拉正式进入中国，是在2014年4月，当时马斯克首次来到中国，向首批车主交付产品。第一批车主是包括汪东风、李想、俞永福、潘燕明、许亮、董晓栗等8位企业家。除此之外，雷军、曹国伟等IT科技界领袖也是特斯拉的首批粉丝。\n\n在随后的几年时间中，特斯拉在中国的发展，主要经历了三个阶段：\n第一阶段是从2014年到2019年，当时在中国销售主要以进口的Model S和 Model X为主，月销量销量徘徊在4000辆左右；\n第二阶段从2019年到2020年，Model 3正式国产化，价格进入30万以下区间，销量稳定在1万辆以上，最高突破2万辆；\n第三阶段是从2021年至今，伴随国产 Model Y 上市，一季度销量是去年同期的3倍。特别是3月份销量为3.54万辆，刷新在中国单月销量纪录。\n目前，特斯拉在中国销量累计超过了25万辆，那到底谁在购买特斯拉呢？\n从地域上来看，北上广是特斯拉的主要“阵地”。根据交强险数据，2020 年全国特斯拉上牌量为13.9万辆，其中在上海、广东、浙江、北京四地的上牌量分别为3.3万辆、2.6万辆、1.7万辆、1.4万辆，占比分别为 23.7%、18.5%、12.4%、10.2%，合计达 64.7%。这也意味着，当前对特斯拉需求较高的地区，仍为东部及沿海较发达且限牌的地区。\n从车主年龄上来看，根据网易汽车调查，特斯拉车主为30.3岁，这低于很多汽车品牌的用户群。其中，31岁到40岁的车主占比为56%，25岁到30岁占比为20%，甚至18岁到24岁的用户数量也占到了3%。这也意味着，年轻群体对于特斯拉的接受度比较高。\n职业上来看，特斯拉车主多是从事数码、科技、电子及互联网行业，他们对最新的电动车和新能源技术有一定的了解，对可能出现的一些小问题包容度更高，同时承受能力也更强，很多车主甚至自嘲“韭菜”。\n值得一提的是，83%的特斯拉车主拥有两辆或更多的车，电动车并非第一辆车。只有17%的车主，将特斯拉作为家庭的第一辆车，这主要是因为北上广等城市限号、现行政策，催生了这部分用户需求。\n虽然特斯拉因为降价或强硬言论，遭受各种“社会毒打”，但长远来看，销量并不会受到太大影响，这背后是“真香”定律。\n目前，特斯拉在售车型分为Model 3、Model Y、Model X、Model S四款车型。其中，Model 3和Model Y是其主力车型。特斯拉的Model 3的竞争对手，并非是国产新能源品牌，而是宝马3系、奔驰C级、奥迪A4等豪华中型轿车；Model Y的“对手”则是宝马X3、奔驰GLC和奥迪Q5L。\n横向对比来看，Model 3 和Model Y除了空间方面表现略逊，在动力性能、配置和价格上优势明显。其中，特斯拉 Model 3 标准版的最大功率与扭矩，高于搭载传统动力总成的竞品车型，百公里加速更快；从价格上看，Model 3 标准续航版比低配版的奔驰 C 系、宝马 3 系、奥迪 A4 还便宜 19%、14%和 19%；从配置来看， Model 3 全系标配主动安全系统，安全等级显著优于竞品车型。\n\n市场也正在向特斯拉倾斜，这一趋势在美国市场已经开始体现。据了解，2020 年的美国市场， Model 3 销量（12万辆）已实现对三款竞品销量总和的超越（9万辆）；Model Y 虽然仍在爬坡期（7万辆），但也超过了三款竞品中卖的最好的宝马 X3（6万辆），未来仍有很大提升潜力。\n依照马斯克和特斯拉的“脾气”，未来可能会闹出更大“动静”，不管是会带来褒奖还是批评。不过，中国也需要这样一条“鲶鱼”，不仅仅是新能源汽车产业链，也包括电动车消费习惯和文化。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"TSLA":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1429,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":104292830,"gmtCreate":1620391875720,"gmtModify":1704342993033,"author":{"id":"3565141264334143","authorId":"3565141264334143","name":"猫咪b","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e814c71340fd63db37fbcdc00197f975","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3565141264334143","idStr":"3565141264334143"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"I'm strongly agree...","listText":"I'm strongly agree...","text":"I'm strongly agree...","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":2,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/104292830","repostId":"2133157839","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2340,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":104298257,"gmtCreate":1620391735079,"gmtModify":1704342990358,"author":{"id":"3565141264334143","authorId":"3565141264334143","name":"猫咪b","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e814c71340fd63db37fbcdc00197f975","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3565141264334143","idStr":"3565141264334143"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"I strongly agree.....","listText":"I strongly agree.....","text":"I strongly agree.....","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/104298257","repostId":"2133157839","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1794,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":108545235,"gmtCreate":1620045768127,"gmtModify":1704337794251,"author":{"id":"3565141264334143","authorId":"3565141264334143","name":"猫咪b","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e814c71340fd63db37fbcdc00197f975","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3565141264334143","idStr":"3565141264334143"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Really???","listText":"Really???","text":"Really???","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/108545235","repostId":"1148368936","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1148368936","kind":"news","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"追踪全球财经热点，精选影响您财富的资讯，投资理财必备神器！","home_visible":1,"media_name":"华尔街见闻","id":"1084101182","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/66809d1f5c2e43e2bdf15820c6d6897e"},"pubTimestamp":1620043274,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1148368936?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2021-05-03 20:01","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"When will the global chip \"shortage\" last? Morgan Stanley: At least until 2022","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1148368936","media":"华尔街见闻","summary":"现在是押注电动车领域长期机遇，“逢低买进”的好时机。","content":"<p>Chip supply shortages continue to plague the global auto industry,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MS\">Morgan Stanley</a>Analysts Adam Jonas and Joseph Moore said in their latest report that this situation may continue until 2022.</p><p>They believe that many automakers will be hampered by production as a result, while<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/F\">Ford Motor</a>The second quarter and full-year production and profit expectations announced last week can be regarded as the first \"profit warning\" for the automobile industry under the \"chip shortage\".</p><p>After the release of the first quarter report, Ford CEO Jim Farley predicted that as the chip shortage may worsen further, planned production in the second quarter will be forced to reduce by 50%, much higher than the 17% decline in the first quarter. Its chief financial officer John Lawler said that throughout 2021, Ford will cut production by about 1.1 million vehicles due to chip problems, losing $2.5 billion.</p><p>In late March, Ford chip supplier Renesas Electronics was forced to suspend production after a fire broke out at a factory, exacerbating the global chip shortage.</p><p>Adam Jonas and Joseph Moore believe that,<b>Due to poor planning, Ford may be the \"worst example of chip supply disruption\", which is a \"reality test\" for investors investing in OEMs.</b></p><p>However, Ford had previously been optimistic about its performance in the second half of the year, believing that chip supply would bottom out in the second quarter and improve for the rest of the year.</p><p>Adam Jonas and Joseph Moore said that now is a good time to bet on long-term opportunities in the electric vehicle space and \"buy the dip\".</p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>When will the global chip \"shortage\" last? Morgan Stanley: At least until 2022</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nWhen will the global chip \"shortage\" last? Morgan Stanley: At least until 2022\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/1084101182\">\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/66809d1f5c2e43e2bdf15820c6d6897e);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">华尔街见闻 </p>\n<p class=\"h-time smaller\">2021-05-03 20:01</p>\n</div>\n</a>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>Chip supply shortages continue to plague the global auto industry,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MS\">Morgan Stanley</a>Analysts Adam Jonas and Joseph Moore said in their latest report that this situation may continue until 2022.</p><p>They believe that many automakers will be hampered by production as a result, while<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/F\">Ford Motor</a>The second quarter and full-year production and profit expectations announced last week can be regarded as the first \"profit warning\" for the automobile industry under the \"chip shortage\".</p><p>After the release of the first quarter report, Ford CEO Jim Farley predicted that as the chip shortage may worsen further, planned production in the second quarter will be forced to reduce by 50%, much higher than the 17% decline in the first quarter. Its chief financial officer John Lawler said that throughout 2021, Ford will cut production by about 1.1 million vehicles due to chip problems, losing $2.5 billion.</p><p>In late March, Ford chip supplier Renesas Electronics was forced to suspend production after a fire broke out at a factory, exacerbating the global chip shortage.</p><p>Adam Jonas and Joseph Moore believe that,<b>Due to poor planning, Ford may be the \"worst example of chip supply disruption\", which is a \"reality test\" for investors investing in OEMs.</b></p><p>However, Ford had previously been optimistic about its performance in the second half of the year, believing that chip supply would bottom out in the second quarter and improve for the rest of the year.</p><p>Adam Jonas and Joseph Moore said that now is a good time to bet on long-term opportunities in the electric vehicle space and \"buy the dip\".</p>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/03e38a3a3c63bd5a9d8d8ca2d384d1c5","relate_stocks":{"159813":"芯片","MS":"摩根士丹利"},"is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1148368936","content_text":"芯片供应短缺持续困扰全球汽车业，摩根士丹利分析师Adam Jonas和Joseph Moore在最新报告中表示，这一局面或将持续到2022年。\n他们认为，许多汽车制造商将因此生产受阻，而福特汽车上周公布的二季度和全年产量、盈利预期，算是“芯片荒”下汽车业的第一个“盈利预警”。\n一季报公布后，福特CEO Jim Farley预计，由于芯片短缺可能进一步恶化，二季度计划产量将被迫减少50%，远高于一季度17%的降幅。其首席财务官John Lawler表示，2021年全年，福特将因芯片问题减产汽车约110万辆，损失25亿美元。\n3月底，福特芯片供应商瑞萨电子(Renesas Electronics)旗下一家工厂发生火灾后被迫停产，加剧全球芯片短缺。\nAdam Jonas和Joseph Moore认为，由于规划不善，福特可能是受到“芯片供应中断影响最严重例子”，这对投资OEM代工的投资者来说，是一次“现实的检验”。\n不过，福特此前对下半年表现持乐观预期，认为芯片供应将在二季度触底，并在今年剩余时间内有所改善。\nAdam Jonas和Joseph Moore表示，现在是押注电动车领域长期机遇，“逢低买进”的好时机。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"159813":0.9,"MS":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1485,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":108095871,"gmtCreate":1619956987093,"gmtModify":1704336758995,"author":{"id":"3565141264334143","authorId":"3565141264334143","name":"猫咪b","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e814c71340fd63db37fbcdc00197f975","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3565141264334143","idStr":"3565141264334143"},"themes":[],"htmlText":".....","listText":".....","text":".....","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/108095871","repostId":"2132567538","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"2132567538","kind":"highlight","pubTimestamp":1619941518,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/2132567538?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2021-05-02 15:45","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"Is the GDP of the United States strong or weak in the first quarter?","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2132567538","media":"智通财经网","summary":"本文来自“申万宏源宏观”。摘要一、周观点：美国一季度GDP究竟是偏强还是偏弱?21Q1美国GDP同比0.4%，略低于市场预期。美国21Q1  GDP实际同比0.4%，疫情以来首次同比转正，环比1.6%","content":"<p><b>This article comes from \"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/000166\">Shenwan Hongyuan</a>Macro \".</b></p><p>SUMMARY</p><p><b>1. Zhou's point of view: Is the GDP of the United States strong or weak in the first quarter?</b></p><p><b>U.S. GDP in 21Q1 was 0.4% year-on-year, slightly lower than market expectations.</b>The actual 21Q1 GDP of the United States was 0.4% year-on-year, turning positive year-on-year for the first time since the epidemic, and 1.6% month-on-month. The main contributing factors are commodity consumption, service consumption, and non-residential investment, showing the rapid recovery of the U.S. economy under the improvement of the epidemic and fiscal subsidies. However, the main drag items are changes in private inventories and imports. In fact, the GDP growth rate of the United States in the first quarter was slightly lower than market expectations, indicating that the market lacks understanding of the slow recovery of production caused by excessive fiscal subsidies in the United States, and is overly optimistic about the improvement of the epidemic. expectations.</p><p><b>Household consumption: Subsidies promote commodity consumption, and the epidemic situation eases and the service industry recovers.</b>1) In 21Q1, U.S. personal consumption expenditures drove GDP by 1.1 percentage points year-on-year, a significant improvement of 3 percentage points from 20Q4. Commodity consumption is mainly driven by durable goods, while service consumption has a greater improvement in GDP than durable goods consumption; 2) From a monthly high-frequency perspective, PCE in March was 8.5% year-on-year and 3.7% month-on-month. It strengthened again after falling slightly during the direct subsidy vacuum period in February. It shows the immediate stimulating effect of the subsidy of US $1,400 in March on consumption, as well as the recovery of service consumption under the relaxation of prevention and control measures. However, judging from the intensity of the recovery of service consumption, it is actually slightly weaker than the overly optimistic expectations of overseas markets in February-March.</p><p><b>Investment: Equipment investment has improved significantly, interest rates have suppressed real estate investment, and inventory replenishment has not occurred.</b>In 21Q1, domestic private investment drove GDP by 0.8 percentage points year-on-year, a slight improvement of 0.1 percentage points from the fourth quarter. 1) The improvement in non-residential investment shows that the U.S. production sector's expectations for the economic outlook have improved; 2) The year-on-year decline in the contribution of private inventory changes to 21Q1 GDP is a manifestation of the tear between supply and demand in the U.S. economy. Strong demand and slow recovery of production have led to a decline in inventory. This means that the strengthening of commodity prices in Q1 cannot be supported by U.S. industrial production. Supported by strong and active inventory replenishment logic; 3) The year-on-year contribution of residential investment to GDP remained basically stable, while the month-on-month growth rate was suppressed by the overall increase in U.S. interest rates in the previous period. The follow-up is expected to continue to cool down with the medium-term upward process of interest rates.</p><p><b>Government expenditure and net exports: Subsidies drive the increase of government expenditure, and the widening gap between supply and demand leads to the high increase of imports.</b>The tear between supply and demand in the U.S. economy has caused net exports to deepen the drag on GDP again. Net exports in 21Q1 dragged down GDP by 2 percentage points year-on-year, and the degree of drag was 0.7 percentage points higher than that in 20Q4. Government expenditure in 21Q1 boosted GDP by 0.1 percentage points year-on-year, mainly due to the U.S. government's issuance of direct subsidy checks to residents to the banking system and the cost of purchasing vaccines.</p><p><b>It is expected that the U.S. economic recovery will reach a high point in the second quarter. Pay attention to the follow-up progress of the epidemic.</b>We believe that the strength of future U.S. economic recovery depends on the vaccination process and the spread of COVID-19 pandemic. Under the assumption that the epidemic situation in the United States continues to ease and the service industry gradually recovers, the second quarter is expected to be the highest point for the recovery of the U.S. economy. However, the tear between supply and demand caused by excessive subsidies will continue until September, and the intensity of the recovery of the U.S. economy during the year may not be as strong as the market expected. Personal consumption expenditure: It is expected that the first quarter will be the high point of commodity consumption, and service industry consumption will continue to gradually recover as the epidemic eases. However, the spread of more contagious virus variants in the United States and overseas countries will also affect the subsequent recovery intensity of service industry; Investment: The improvement of non-residential investment needs to pay attention to the subsequent progress of the epidemic. Residential investment will decline with the gradual cooling of the real estate market; Private inventory changes may wait until September after the end of unemployment benefits. Government expenditure and net exports: Government expenditure is expected to continue to make a positive contribution to GDP year-on-year before the fourth quarter. Net exports will return to normal levels as the gap between supply and demand narrows later this year.</p><p><b>2. Global macro data</b></p><p><b>High-frequency data this week</b>: New orders for durable goods in the United States increased year-on-month</p><p><b>Epidemic</b>: New confirmed cases in the United States declined.</p><p><b>Demand</b>: Japan's retail sales rebounded sharply year-on-year.</p><p><b>Supply and employment</b>: New orders for durable goods in the United States increased year-on-month.</p><p><b>Trade</b>: U.S. imports and exports both rose sharply year-on-year in March.</p><p><b>Inflation and Commodities</b>: Oil prices rose slightly.</p><p><b>Real Estate</b>: The U.S. existing home contract sales index rose in March.</p><p><b>Monetary policy and exchange rates</b>: the US Dollar Index falls, gold prices stabilize.</p><p><b>Global Macro Calendar</b>: Focus on US ISM Manufacturing PMI</p><p>text</p><p><b>1. Zhou's point of view: Is the GDP of the United States strong or weak in the first quarter?</b></p><p><b>1.21 Q1 U.S. GDP was 0.4% year-on-year, slightly lower than market expectations</b></p><p>The actual 21Q1 GDP of the United States was 0.4% year-on-year, turning positive year-on-year for the first time since the epidemic, and 1.6% month-on-month. The main contributing factors are commodity consumption, service consumption, and non-residential investment, showing the relatively rapid recovery of the U.S. economy under the improvement of the epidemic and fiscal subsidies. The main drag items are changes in private inventories and imports. In fact, the GDP growth rate of the United States in the first quarter was slightly lower than market expectations, indicating that the market lacks understanding of the slow recovery of production caused by excessive fiscal subsidies in the United States, and is overly optimistic about the improvement of the epidemic. expectations.</p><p><img src=\"http://img.zhitongcaijing.com/images/contentformat/867b3b31bf5a4410ca85884cf283ce1f.jpg\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"588\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><b>2. Household consumption: Subsidies promote commodity consumption, and the epidemic eases and the service industry recovers</b></p><p>In 21Q1, financial subsidies of up to 2,000 USD/person stimulate commodity consumption; The easing of the epidemic has promoted the recovery of service consumption, but it is slightly weaker than the early optimistic expectations of overseas markets. 1) From a quarterly perspective, U.S. personal consumption expenditure in 21Q1 drove GDP by 1.1 percentage points year-on-year, a significant improvement of 3 percentage points from 20Q4. It jumped from the largest drag on GDP in the fourth quarter to the largest contribution, showing that the first quarter also had The stimulating effect of the US $600 subsidy in January and the US $1,400 subsidy issued in March on consumption, as well as the gradual release of service consumption as the epidemic eases. 2) From the perspective of monthly high frequency, PCE in March reached 8.5% year-on-year and 3.7% month-on-month. It strengthened again after falling slightly during the direct subsidy vacuum period in February. Among them, the year-on-year growth rate of durable goods and service consumption increased again, reaching 43.3% and 4.8% respectively in March, while non-durable goods slowed down slightly (4.3%) year-on-year, indicating that the subsidy of US $1,400 in March had an immediate stimulus effect on consumption, and the recovery of service consumption under the relaxation of prevention and control measures. However, judging from the intensity of the recovery of service consumption, it is actually slightly weaker than the overly optimistic expectations of overseas markets in February-March.</p><p><img src=\"http://img.zhitongcaijing.com/images/contentformat/fb6a3cdada866cc05b11f3b44abb7b40.jpg\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"398\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>Commodity consumption and service consumption jointly drive the high increase of personal consumption expenditure. 1) Commodity consumption is mainly driven by durable goods. Commodity consumption in 21Q1 boosted GDP by 3.2 percentage points, an improvement of 1.5 percentage points compared with 20Q4, mainly due to the high growth of durable goods again under the fiscal stimulus in the first quarter. The contribution of durable goods to GDP in 21Q1 improved significantly by 1.3 percentage points compared with the fourth quarter, while the contribution of non-durable goods to GDP only slightly improved by 0.3 percentage points; 2) The improvement of service consumption on GDP is greater than that of durable goods consumption. Although service consumption in 21Q1 still has a negative pull of-1.4% on GDP, it has improved significantly by 1.6 percentage points compared with the previous quarter, and the improvement rate is even greater than that of durable goods consumption, showing that service consumption has improved under the dual factors of fiscal subsidies and epidemic easing. The flexibility is greater.</p><p><img src=\"http://img.zhitongcaijing.com/images/contentformat/e8b1b37f95a3c799e28a194bc63e56e7.jpg\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"399\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><b>3. Investment: Equipment investment has improved significantly, interest rates have suppressed real estate investment, and inventory replenishment has not occurred</b></p><p>The effect of non-residential investment on GDP has been greatly improved, and private inventory has turned into a drag. In 21Q1, domestic private investment drove GDP by 0.8 percentage points year-on-year, a slight improvement of 0.1 percentage points from the fourth quarter.</p><p>1) The improvement in non-residential investment shows that the U.S. production sector's expectations for the economic outlook have improved. The main contributor to the improvement of private investment is non-residential investment (an improvement of 0.6 percentage points), which mainly comes from equipment investment, indicating that manufacturing companies remain optimistic about the prospects for economic recovery.</p><p>2) The year-on-year decline in the contribution of private inventory changes to 21Q1 GDP is a manifestation of the tear between supply and demand in the U.S. economy. Strong demand and slow recovery of production have led to a decline in inventories. This means that the strengthening of commodity prices in Q1 cannot be supported by U.S. industrial production. Supported by strong and active inventory replenishment logic. The main drag on private investment was the change of private inventory (0.4 percentage points).</p><p>3) The year-on-year contribution of residential investment to GDP remained basically stable, while the month-on-month growth rate was suppressed by the overall increase in U.S. interest rates in the previous period. The follow-up is expected to continue to cool down with the medium-term upward process of interest rates. The pull of residential investment on GDP in 21Q1 remained stable. However, with the gradual increase of mortgage interest rates in the past 21 years, the U.S. real estate market has cooled down, and residential construction expenditures and existing home sales have slowed down. It is expected that subsequent residential investment will have an impact on GDP. The pulling effect will gradually decline.</p><p><img src=\"http://img.zhitongcaijing.com/images/contentformat/8831f8bd60fdfc9671df61b6e741faaa.jpg\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"393\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><b>4. Government expenditure and net exports: Subsidies drive the increase of government expenditure, and the widening gap between supply and demand leads to the high increase of imports</b></p><p>The tear between supply and demand in the U.S. economy has caused net exports to deepen the drag on GDP again. Net exports in 21Q1 dragged down GDP by 2 percentage points year-on-year, and the degree of drag was 0.7 percentage points higher than that in 20Q4. 1) Exports dragged down by 1 percentage point, but have improved by 0.2 percentage points from the previous quarter, showing a slight recovery in U.S. industrial production, but it is still dwarfed by the 3.0 percentage point improvement in personal consumption expenditures. What actually reflects the excessive fiscal subsidies in the United States. The widening gap between supply and demand in 21Q1; 2) Imports dragged down GDP by 1.0 percentage points year-on-year in 21Q1, a significant increase of 0.9 percentage points compared with the previous quarter. The direct consequence of the widening gap between supply and demand in the United States is the expansion of import scale.</p><p>Government expenditure in 21Q1 boosted GDP by 0.1 percentage points year-on-year, mainly due to the U.S. government's issuance of direct subsidy checks to residents to the banking system and the cost of purchasing vaccines.</p><p><img src=\"http://img.zhitongcaijing.com/images/contentformat/1e6d4ceb162a00ae93de51b3cf6bb71b.jpg\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"386\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><b>5. The U.S. economic recovery is expected to reach a high point in the second quarter, and pay attention to the follow-up progress of the epidemic</b></p><p>Looking ahead, we believe that the strength of future U.S. economic recovery depends on the vaccination process and the spread of COVID-19 pandemic. Under the assumption that the epidemic situation in the United States continues to ease and the service industry gradually recovers, the second quarter is expected to be the highest point for the recovery of the U.S. economy. However, the tear between supply and demand caused by excessive subsidies will continue until September, and the intensity of the recovery of the U.S. economy during the year may not be as strong as the market expected.</p><p>Personal consumption expenditure: 1) Although commodity consumption in 21Q1 showed extremely strong momentum, we expect that the first quarter was already the high point of commodity consumption, and it will gradually decline as subsidies ebb; 2) Consumption in the service industry will continue to gradually recover as the epidemic eases, but the global epidemic has rebounded since March, especially in European countries and emerging countries. At the same time, the spread of more contagious virus variants in the United States and overseas countries will also affect the subsequent recovery intensity of the service industry.</p><p>Investment: 1) The main driving force for the improvement of non-residential investment in 21Q1 is the expectation of economic improvement. From the current point of view, the global epidemic is the core factor that determines the intensity of economic recovery, and we need to pay attention to the subsequent progress of the epidemic; 2) Residential investment will decline as the real estate market gradually cools down; 3) Changes in private inventories, that is, the intensity of inventory replenishment will depend on whether the current situation of the tearing between supply and demand in the United States can be alleviated. From the current point of view, it may not be until the end of unemployment subsidies in September that there will be a significant bridging trend between the supply and demand ends in the United States. Then drive inventory investment.</p><p>Government expenditure and net exports: 1) As unemployment subsidies continue to be paid in the second and third quarters, government expenditure is expected to continue to make a positive contribution to GDP year-on-year before the fourth quarter, and if the U.S. employment plan or the U.S. household plan can be implemented within the year, it will also boost the level of government spending; In terms of net exports, exports will depend on the progress of the recovery of U.S. industrial production. As mentioned above, it may not be boosted until the fourth quarter. Imports, on the contrary, will fall back to normal as the gap between supply and demand narrows later this year. level.</p><p><img src=\"http://img.zhitongcaijing.com/images/contentformat/32e1b124c2e79173310a2a69f29f1ee7.jpg\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"547\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><b>2. Global macro data: New confirmed cases in the United States decreased</b></p><p><b>1. Epidemic situation: New confirmed cases in the United States decreased</b></p><p>The number of new confirmed cases in the United States dropped this week. The average number of newly diagnosed cases in the United States dropped to more than 53,000 on the 7th day. As of April 29, the total number of confirmed cases in COVID-19 pandemic worldwide exceeded 150 million, the total number of deaths was 3.14 million, and the total number of recovered cases was 120 million. In the four days of this week (April 27-April 30), there were 220,000 and 9,000 new confirmed cases in the United States and the United Kingdom respectively.</p><p>As of April 28, the most COVID-19 vaccine vaccinations per 100 people worldwide were in Israel, reaching 121.1 shots per 100 people, 70.2 shots per 100 people in the United States, and 70.9 shots per 100 people in the United Kingdom. As of April 28, Israel has the highest proportion of fully vaccinated people in the world, reaching 58.7%, while the United States and the United Kingdom have 29.3% and 20.7% respectively.</p><p><img src=\"http://img.zhitongcaijing.com/images/contentformat/887a942234cb8fe459a2f83e1d51371f.jpg\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"591\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><img src=\"http://img.zhitongcaijing.com/images/contentformat/62573bfd15fa133a1b4a5d4e236f878d.jpg\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"397\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><b>2. Demand: Japan's retail sales rebounded sharply year-on-year</b></p><p>Japan's retail sales and wholesale sales both rose sharply year-on-year. Japan's retail sales index in March was 5.3% year-on-year, of which textiles and clothing in retail sales were 15.8% year-on-year, and the wholesale sales index in March was 1.0% year-on-year.</p><p><img src=\"http://img.zhitongcaijing.com/images/contentformat/a115423dbfa92a2b68fd1ddba7b7202c.jpg\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"432\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>South Korea's retail sales continued to grow year-on-year in March, and semi-durable goods consumption increased significantly. South Korea's retail sales in March increased by 3.5 percentage points year-on-year to 13.5%, with semi-durable goods consumption growing the fastest, 35.5% year-on-year; Durable goods were 13.6% year-on-year, and non-durable goods were 6.5% year-on-year.</p><p><img src=\"http://img.zhitongcaijing.com/images/contentformat/660433692ab7c356ac6e92af5532c956.jpg\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"549\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><b>3. Supply and employment: New orders for durable goods in the United States rose year-on-month</b></p><p>U.S. durable goods inventories rose, and the growth rate of new orders rose year-on-month. U.S. durable goods inventories reached US $431.84 billion in March, a month-on-month increase of 1.0% and a year-on-year increase of 1.7%. New orders for durable goods in the United States rose by 0.5% month-on-month in March, a sharp increase of 25% year-on-year.</p><p><img src=\"http://img.zhitongcaijing.com/images/contentformat/00d167c28987b587b0353bdb22cabcb3.jpg\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"397\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>Japan's unemployment rate fell to 2.6% in March. Japan's unemployment rate fell 0.3 percentage points from the previous month to 2.6% in March. South Korea's industrial production index rose year-on-month, and the industry continued to rebound. South Korea's industrial production index rose 5.7% year-on-year and 0.8% month-on-month to 112.6 in March.</p><p><img src=\"http://img.zhitongcaijing.com/images/contentformat/3e518f69ea70eb9423bd2c4c0800a9d4.jpg\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"393\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>U.S. industrial materials production continues to rise. 1) In the week ending April 24, U.S. weekly crude steel production increased by 43.6% year-on-year, and capacity utilization increased slightly by 0.4 percentage points from last week to 78.4%; 2) As of April 23, the operational capacity utilization rate of U.S. refineries increased by 0.4 percentage points to 85.4%.</p><p><img src=\"http://img.zhitongcaijing.com/images/contentformat/08378049f4011957a1ca13a61b5f7ee9.jpg\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"395\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>The number of initial jobless claims in the United States fell slightly during the week, while the number of continuing jobless claims rose slightly. The number of initial jobless claims in the United States reached 553,000 in the week of April 24, a decrease of 13,000 from last week; The number of people who continued to apply for unemployment benefits in the week of April 17 reached 3.66 million, an increase of 9,000 from the previous month.</p><p><img src=\"http://img.zhitongcaijing.com/images/contentformat/50abaebb23322c65845134f36edf2eac.jpg\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"550\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><b>4. Trade: U.S. imports and exports rose sharply year-on-year in March</b></p><p>U.S. imports and exports both rose sharply year-on-year in March. U.S. export growth in March rose sharply by 16.5 percentage points from the previous month to 11.5%, and imports were 20.6% year-on-year. The U.S. merchandise trade balance in March was-$90.59 billion.</p><p><img src=\"http://img.zhitongcaijing.com/images/contentformat/b94fcaf0b73f26e0f7e86a9f8b746b80.jpg\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"549\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><b>5. Inflation and commodities: Oil prices rise slightly</b></p><p>EIA crude oil inventories rose by 9 million barrels in the week of April 28, while U.S. crude oil production fell slightly by 100,000 barrels per day to 10.9 million barrels per day. As of April 29, the weekly average price of WTI crude oil rose to US $63.2/barrel; The weekly average price of Brent oil rose to US $66.6/barrel.</p><p><img src=\"http://img.zhitongcaijing.com/images/contentformat/2ea9504a69c4ccccc0e74ff1a56da96e.jpg\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"396\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><img src=\"http://img.zhitongcaijing.com/images/contentformat/e2a42a869453a51bf63a352119f75e6a.jpg\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"402\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><b>6. Real estate: The U.S. existing home contract sales index rose year-on-year in March</b></p><p>The U.S. S&P/CS home price index rose for eight consecutive months in February. In February, the U.S. S&P/CS home price index rose 11.9% year-on-year to 246.0, rising for eight consecutive months. The U.S. existing home contract sales index in March rose by 23.3% year-on-year and 1.9% month-on-month.</p><p><img src=\"http://img.zhitongcaijing.com/images/contentformat/6ac3751240b8a02c34f4c66d93fb255b.jpg\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"398\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>Japan's new housing starts and construction orders rose sharply in March. Japan's new housing starts in March were 1.5% year-on-year and 18.1% month-on-month. The number of construction orders in March was 12.5% year-on-year and 192.7% month-on-month, the highest increase in nearly a year.</p><p><img src=\"http://img.zhitongcaijing.com/images/contentformat/e961519800be12d5e185f10acff56a58.jpg\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"392\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>U.S. 5-year mortgage rates fell, while 15-year, 30-year mortgage rates rose. In the week ending April 29, the 5-year mortgage rate fell by 0.2 percentage points to 2.6%, while the 15-year and 30-year mortgage rates rose to 2.3% and 3.0% respectively. As of the week of April 23, the U.S. MBA market index fell by 18.2 to 706.6, and the housing market fell slightly.</p><p><img src=\"http://img.zhitongcaijing.com/images/contentformat/2eb2b206b830b79a11aed2265d986bec.jpg\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"395\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><b>7. Monetary policy and exchange rate: the US Dollar Index fell, gold prices were basically stable</b></p><p>The Federal Reserve's interest rate meeting was held this week. Powell's speech was dovish, the US Dollar Index fell, and gold prices were basically stable. On April 28, local time, the Federal Reserve announced a statement on the interest rate meeting. Powell said at the press conference after the meeting that it will still take some time to see substantial progress. Before that, the current scale of asset purchases will be maintained. It is not yet time to discuss Taper. the US Dollar Index continues to decline. As of April 29, the US Dollar Index closed at 90.6140, down 0.7% from last week; The exchange rates of the euro and pound against the US dollar (pound exchange rate data as of the 28th) closed at 1.2129 and 1.3906 respectively, appreciating 0.7% and depreciating 0.2% respectively from last week; As the Bank of Canada took the lead in Taper, the Canadian dollar strengthened, closing at 1.2292, an appreciation of 1.7% from last week. The average weekly gold price in London this week was US $1,774.8 per ounce, which was basically stable from last week, and the year-on-year increase fell by 1.2 pct from last week to 3.6%.</p><p><img src=\"http://img.zhitongcaijing.com/images/contentformat/c2e4e8d549f84a56f7d651806cc3a657.jpg\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"398\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><img src=\"http://img.zhitongcaijing.com/images/contentformat/09b461fbeb60aed3abf2e7ffd691b486.jpg\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"551\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>","source":"highlight_zhitongcaijin","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Is the GDP of the United States strong or weak in the first quarter?</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nIs the GDP of the United States strong or weak in the first quarter?\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">智通财经网</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-05-02 15:45</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><b>This article comes from \"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/000166\">Shenwan Hongyuan</a>Macro \".</b></p><p>SUMMARY</p><p><b>1. Zhou's point of view: Is the GDP of the United States strong or weak in the first quarter?</b></p><p><b>U.S. GDP in 21Q1 was 0.4% year-on-year, slightly lower than market expectations.</b>The actual 21Q1 GDP of the United States was 0.4% year-on-year, turning positive year-on-year for the first time since the epidemic, and 1.6% month-on-month. The main contributing factors are commodity consumption, service consumption, and non-residential investment, showing the rapid recovery of the U.S. economy under the improvement of the epidemic and fiscal subsidies. However, the main drag items are changes in private inventories and imports. In fact, the GDP growth rate of the United States in the first quarter was slightly lower than market expectations, indicating that the market lacks understanding of the slow recovery of production caused by excessive fiscal subsidies in the United States, and is overly optimistic about the improvement of the epidemic. expectations.</p><p><b>Household consumption: Subsidies promote commodity consumption, and the epidemic situation eases and the service industry recovers.</b>1) In 21Q1, U.S. personal consumption expenditures drove GDP by 1.1 percentage points year-on-year, a significant improvement of 3 percentage points from 20Q4. Commodity consumption is mainly driven by durable goods, while service consumption has a greater improvement in GDP than durable goods consumption; 2) From a monthly high-frequency perspective, PCE in March was 8.5% year-on-year and 3.7% month-on-month. It strengthened again after falling slightly during the direct subsidy vacuum period in February. It shows the immediate stimulating effect of the subsidy of US $1,400 in March on consumption, as well as the recovery of service consumption under the relaxation of prevention and control measures. However, judging from the intensity of the recovery of service consumption, it is actually slightly weaker than the overly optimistic expectations of overseas markets in February-March.</p><p><b>Investment: Equipment investment has improved significantly, interest rates have suppressed real estate investment, and inventory replenishment has not occurred.</b>In 21Q1, domestic private investment drove GDP by 0.8 percentage points year-on-year, a slight improvement of 0.1 percentage points from the fourth quarter. 1) The improvement in non-residential investment shows that the U.S. production sector's expectations for the economic outlook have improved; 2) The year-on-year decline in the contribution of private inventory changes to 21Q1 GDP is a manifestation of the tear between supply and demand in the U.S. economy. Strong demand and slow recovery of production have led to a decline in inventory. This means that the strengthening of commodity prices in Q1 cannot be supported by U.S. industrial production. Supported by strong and active inventory replenishment logic; 3) The year-on-year contribution of residential investment to GDP remained basically stable, while the month-on-month growth rate was suppressed by the overall increase in U.S. interest rates in the previous period. The follow-up is expected to continue to cool down with the medium-term upward process of interest rates.</p><p><b>Government expenditure and net exports: Subsidies drive the increase of government expenditure, and the widening gap between supply and demand leads to the high increase of imports.</b>The tear between supply and demand in the U.S. economy has caused net exports to deepen the drag on GDP again. Net exports in 21Q1 dragged down GDP by 2 percentage points year-on-year, and the degree of drag was 0.7 percentage points higher than that in 20Q4. Government expenditure in 21Q1 boosted GDP by 0.1 percentage points year-on-year, mainly due to the U.S. government's issuance of direct subsidy checks to residents to the banking system and the cost of purchasing vaccines.</p><p><b>It is expected that the U.S. economic recovery will reach a high point in the second quarter. Pay attention to the follow-up progress of the epidemic.</b>We believe that the strength of future U.S. economic recovery depends on the vaccination process and the spread of COVID-19 pandemic. Under the assumption that the epidemic situation in the United States continues to ease and the service industry gradually recovers, the second quarter is expected to be the highest point for the recovery of the U.S. economy. However, the tear between supply and demand caused by excessive subsidies will continue until September, and the intensity of the recovery of the U.S. economy during the year may not be as strong as the market expected. Personal consumption expenditure: It is expected that the first quarter will be the high point of commodity consumption, and service industry consumption will continue to gradually recover as the epidemic eases. However, the spread of more contagious virus variants in the United States and overseas countries will also affect the subsequent recovery intensity of service industry; Investment: The improvement of non-residential investment needs to pay attention to the subsequent progress of the epidemic. Residential investment will decline with the gradual cooling of the real estate market; Private inventory changes may wait until September after the end of unemployment benefits. Government expenditure and net exports: Government expenditure is expected to continue to make a positive contribution to GDP year-on-year before the fourth quarter. Net exports will return to normal levels as the gap between supply and demand narrows later this year.</p><p><b>2. Global macro data</b></p><p><b>High-frequency data this week</b>: New orders for durable goods in the United States increased year-on-month</p><p><b>Epidemic</b>: New confirmed cases in the United States declined.</p><p><b>Demand</b>: Japan's retail sales rebounded sharply year-on-year.</p><p><b>Supply and employment</b>: New orders for durable goods in the United States increased year-on-month.</p><p><b>Trade</b>: U.S. imports and exports both rose sharply year-on-year in March.</p><p><b>Inflation and Commodities</b>: Oil prices rose slightly.</p><p><b>Real Estate</b>: The U.S. existing home contract sales index rose in March.</p><p><b>Monetary policy and exchange rates</b>: the US Dollar Index falls, gold prices stabilize.</p><p><b>Global Macro Calendar</b>: Focus on US ISM Manufacturing PMI</p><p>text</p><p><b>1. Zhou's point of view: Is the GDP of the United States strong or weak in the first quarter?</b></p><p><b>1.21 Q1 U.S. GDP was 0.4% year-on-year, slightly lower than market expectations</b></p><p>The actual 21Q1 GDP of the United States was 0.4% year-on-year, turning positive year-on-year for the first time since the epidemic, and 1.6% month-on-month. The main contributing factors are commodity consumption, service consumption, and non-residential investment, showing the relatively rapid recovery of the U.S. economy under the improvement of the epidemic and fiscal subsidies. The main drag items are changes in private inventories and imports. In fact, the GDP growth rate of the United States in the first quarter was slightly lower than market expectations, indicating that the market lacks understanding of the slow recovery of production caused by excessive fiscal subsidies in the United States, and is overly optimistic about the improvement of the epidemic. expectations.</p><p><img src=\"http://img.zhitongcaijing.com/images/contentformat/867b3b31bf5a4410ca85884cf283ce1f.jpg\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"588\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><b>2. Household consumption: Subsidies promote commodity consumption, and the epidemic eases and the service industry recovers</b></p><p>In 21Q1, financial subsidies of up to 2,000 USD/person stimulate commodity consumption; The easing of the epidemic has promoted the recovery of service consumption, but it is slightly weaker than the early optimistic expectations of overseas markets. 1) From a quarterly perspective, U.S. personal consumption expenditure in 21Q1 drove GDP by 1.1 percentage points year-on-year, a significant improvement of 3 percentage points from 20Q4. It jumped from the largest drag on GDP in the fourth quarter to the largest contribution, showing that the first quarter also had The stimulating effect of the US $600 subsidy in January and the US $1,400 subsidy issued in March on consumption, as well as the gradual release of service consumption as the epidemic eases. 2) From the perspective of monthly high frequency, PCE in March reached 8.5% year-on-year and 3.7% month-on-month. It strengthened again after falling slightly during the direct subsidy vacuum period in February. Among them, the year-on-year growth rate of durable goods and service consumption increased again, reaching 43.3% and 4.8% respectively in March, while non-durable goods slowed down slightly (4.3%) year-on-year, indicating that the subsidy of US $1,400 in March had an immediate stimulus effect on consumption, and the recovery of service consumption under the relaxation of prevention and control measures. However, judging from the intensity of the recovery of service consumption, it is actually slightly weaker than the overly optimistic expectations of overseas markets in February-March.</p><p><img src=\"http://img.zhitongcaijing.com/images/contentformat/fb6a3cdada866cc05b11f3b44abb7b40.jpg\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"398\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>Commodity consumption and service consumption jointly drive the high increase of personal consumption expenditure. 1) Commodity consumption is mainly driven by durable goods. Commodity consumption in 21Q1 boosted GDP by 3.2 percentage points, an improvement of 1.5 percentage points compared with 20Q4, mainly due to the high growth of durable goods again under the fiscal stimulus in the first quarter. The contribution of durable goods to GDP in 21Q1 improved significantly by 1.3 percentage points compared with the fourth quarter, while the contribution of non-durable goods to GDP only slightly improved by 0.3 percentage points; 2) The improvement of service consumption on GDP is greater than that of durable goods consumption. Although service consumption in 21Q1 still has a negative pull of-1.4% on GDP, it has improved significantly by 1.6 percentage points compared with the previous quarter, and the improvement rate is even greater than that of durable goods consumption, showing that service consumption has improved under the dual factors of fiscal subsidies and epidemic easing. The flexibility is greater.</p><p><img src=\"http://img.zhitongcaijing.com/images/contentformat/e8b1b37f95a3c799e28a194bc63e56e7.jpg\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"399\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><b>3. Investment: Equipment investment has improved significantly, interest rates have suppressed real estate investment, and inventory replenishment has not occurred</b></p><p>The effect of non-residential investment on GDP has been greatly improved, and private inventory has turned into a drag. In 21Q1, domestic private investment drove GDP by 0.8 percentage points year-on-year, a slight improvement of 0.1 percentage points from the fourth quarter.</p><p>1) The improvement in non-residential investment shows that the U.S. production sector's expectations for the economic outlook have improved. The main contributor to the improvement of private investment is non-residential investment (an improvement of 0.6 percentage points), which mainly comes from equipment investment, indicating that manufacturing companies remain optimistic about the prospects for economic recovery.</p><p>2) The year-on-year decline in the contribution of private inventory changes to 21Q1 GDP is a manifestation of the tear between supply and demand in the U.S. economy. Strong demand and slow recovery of production have led to a decline in inventories. This means that the strengthening of commodity prices in Q1 cannot be supported by U.S. industrial production. Supported by strong and active inventory replenishment logic. The main drag on private investment was the change of private inventory (0.4 percentage points).</p><p>3) The year-on-year contribution of residential investment to GDP remained basically stable, while the month-on-month growth rate was suppressed by the overall increase in U.S. interest rates in the previous period. The follow-up is expected to continue to cool down with the medium-term upward process of interest rates. The pull of residential investment on GDP in 21Q1 remained stable. However, with the gradual increase of mortgage interest rates in the past 21 years, the U.S. real estate market has cooled down, and residential construction expenditures and existing home sales have slowed down. It is expected that subsequent residential investment will have an impact on GDP. The pulling effect will gradually decline.</p><p><img src=\"http://img.zhitongcaijing.com/images/contentformat/8831f8bd60fdfc9671df61b6e741faaa.jpg\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"393\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><b>4. Government expenditure and net exports: Subsidies drive the increase of government expenditure, and the widening gap between supply and demand leads to the high increase of imports</b></p><p>The tear between supply and demand in the U.S. economy has caused net exports to deepen the drag on GDP again. Net exports in 21Q1 dragged down GDP by 2 percentage points year-on-year, and the degree of drag was 0.7 percentage points higher than that in 20Q4. 1) Exports dragged down by 1 percentage point, but have improved by 0.2 percentage points from the previous quarter, showing a slight recovery in U.S. industrial production, but it is still dwarfed by the 3.0 percentage point improvement in personal consumption expenditures. What actually reflects the excessive fiscal subsidies in the United States. The widening gap between supply and demand in 21Q1; 2) Imports dragged down GDP by 1.0 percentage points year-on-year in 21Q1, a significant increase of 0.9 percentage points compared with the previous quarter. The direct consequence of the widening gap between supply and demand in the United States is the expansion of import scale.</p><p>Government expenditure in 21Q1 boosted GDP by 0.1 percentage points year-on-year, mainly due to the U.S. government's issuance of direct subsidy checks to residents to the banking system and the cost of purchasing vaccines.</p><p><img src=\"http://img.zhitongcaijing.com/images/contentformat/1e6d4ceb162a00ae93de51b3cf6bb71b.jpg\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"386\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><b>5. The U.S. economic recovery is expected to reach a high point in the second quarter, and pay attention to the follow-up progress of the epidemic</b></p><p>Looking ahead, we believe that the strength of future U.S. economic recovery depends on the vaccination process and the spread of COVID-19 pandemic. Under the assumption that the epidemic situation in the United States continues to ease and the service industry gradually recovers, the second quarter is expected to be the highest point for the recovery of the U.S. economy. However, the tear between supply and demand caused by excessive subsidies will continue until September, and the intensity of the recovery of the U.S. economy during the year may not be as strong as the market expected.</p><p>Personal consumption expenditure: 1) Although commodity consumption in 21Q1 showed extremely strong momentum, we expect that the first quarter was already the high point of commodity consumption, and it will gradually decline as subsidies ebb; 2) Consumption in the service industry will continue to gradually recover as the epidemic eases, but the global epidemic has rebounded since March, especially in European countries and emerging countries. At the same time, the spread of more contagious virus variants in the United States and overseas countries will also affect the subsequent recovery intensity of the service industry.</p><p>Investment: 1) The main driving force for the improvement of non-residential investment in 21Q1 is the expectation of economic improvement. From the current point of view, the global epidemic is the core factor that determines the intensity of economic recovery, and we need to pay attention to the subsequent progress of the epidemic; 2) Residential investment will decline as the real estate market gradually cools down; 3) Changes in private inventories, that is, the intensity of inventory replenishment will depend on whether the current situation of the tearing between supply and demand in the United States can be alleviated. From the current point of view, it may not be until the end of unemployment subsidies in September that there will be a significant bridging trend between the supply and demand ends in the United States. Then drive inventory investment.</p><p>Government expenditure and net exports: 1) As unemployment subsidies continue to be paid in the second and third quarters, government expenditure is expected to continue to make a positive contribution to GDP year-on-year before the fourth quarter, and if the U.S. employment plan or the U.S. household plan can be implemented within the year, it will also boost the level of government spending; In terms of net exports, exports will depend on the progress of the recovery of U.S. industrial production. As mentioned above, it may not be boosted until the fourth quarter. Imports, on the contrary, will fall back to normal as the gap between supply and demand narrows later this year. level.</p><p><img src=\"http://img.zhitongcaijing.com/images/contentformat/32e1b124c2e79173310a2a69f29f1ee7.jpg\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"547\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><b>2. Global macro data: New confirmed cases in the United States decreased</b></p><p><b>1. Epidemic situation: New confirmed cases in the United States decreased</b></p><p>The number of new confirmed cases in the United States dropped this week. The average number of newly diagnosed cases in the United States dropped to more than 53,000 on the 7th day. As of April 29, the total number of confirmed cases in COVID-19 pandemic worldwide exceeded 150 million, the total number of deaths was 3.14 million, and the total number of recovered cases was 120 million. In the four days of this week (April 27-April 30), there were 220,000 and 9,000 new confirmed cases in the United States and the United Kingdom respectively.</p><p>As of April 28, the most COVID-19 vaccine vaccinations per 100 people worldwide were in Israel, reaching 121.1 shots per 100 people, 70.2 shots per 100 people in the United States, and 70.9 shots per 100 people in the United Kingdom. As of April 28, Israel has the highest proportion of fully vaccinated people in the world, reaching 58.7%, while the United States and the United Kingdom have 29.3% and 20.7% respectively.</p><p><img src=\"http://img.zhitongcaijing.com/images/contentformat/887a942234cb8fe459a2f83e1d51371f.jpg\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"591\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><img src=\"http://img.zhitongcaijing.com/images/contentformat/62573bfd15fa133a1b4a5d4e236f878d.jpg\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"397\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><b>2. Demand: Japan's retail sales rebounded sharply year-on-year</b></p><p>Japan's retail sales and wholesale sales both rose sharply year-on-year. Japan's retail sales index in March was 5.3% year-on-year, of which textiles and clothing in retail sales were 15.8% year-on-year, and the wholesale sales index in March was 1.0% year-on-year.</p><p><img src=\"http://img.zhitongcaijing.com/images/contentformat/a115423dbfa92a2b68fd1ddba7b7202c.jpg\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"432\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>South Korea's retail sales continued to grow year-on-year in March, and semi-durable goods consumption increased significantly. South Korea's retail sales in March increased by 3.5 percentage points year-on-year to 13.5%, with semi-durable goods consumption growing the fastest, 35.5% year-on-year; Durable goods were 13.6% year-on-year, and non-durable goods were 6.5% year-on-year.</p><p><img src=\"http://img.zhitongcaijing.com/images/contentformat/660433692ab7c356ac6e92af5532c956.jpg\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"549\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><b>3. Supply and employment: New orders for durable goods in the United States rose year-on-month</b></p><p>U.S. durable goods inventories rose, and the growth rate of new orders rose year-on-month. U.S. durable goods inventories reached US $431.84 billion in March, a month-on-month increase of 1.0% and a year-on-year increase of 1.7%. New orders for durable goods in the United States rose by 0.5% month-on-month in March, a sharp increase of 25% year-on-year.</p><p><img src=\"http://img.zhitongcaijing.com/images/contentformat/00d167c28987b587b0353bdb22cabcb3.jpg\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"397\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>Japan's unemployment rate fell to 2.6% in March. Japan's unemployment rate fell 0.3 percentage points from the previous month to 2.6% in March. South Korea's industrial production index rose year-on-month, and the industry continued to rebound. South Korea's industrial production index rose 5.7% year-on-year and 0.8% month-on-month to 112.6 in March.</p><p><img src=\"http://img.zhitongcaijing.com/images/contentformat/3e518f69ea70eb9423bd2c4c0800a9d4.jpg\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"393\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>U.S. industrial materials production continues to rise. 1) In the week ending April 24, U.S. weekly crude steel production increased by 43.6% year-on-year, and capacity utilization increased slightly by 0.4 percentage points from last week to 78.4%; 2) As of April 23, the operational capacity utilization rate of U.S. refineries increased by 0.4 percentage points to 85.4%.</p><p><img src=\"http://img.zhitongcaijing.com/images/contentformat/08378049f4011957a1ca13a61b5f7ee9.jpg\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"395\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>The number of initial jobless claims in the United States fell slightly during the week, while the number of continuing jobless claims rose slightly. The number of initial jobless claims in the United States reached 553,000 in the week of April 24, a decrease of 13,000 from last week; The number of people who continued to apply for unemployment benefits in the week of April 17 reached 3.66 million, an increase of 9,000 from the previous month.</p><p><img src=\"http://img.zhitongcaijing.com/images/contentformat/50abaebb23322c65845134f36edf2eac.jpg\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"550\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><b>4. Trade: U.S. imports and exports rose sharply year-on-year in March</b></p><p>U.S. imports and exports both rose sharply year-on-year in March. U.S. export growth in March rose sharply by 16.5 percentage points from the previous month to 11.5%, and imports were 20.6% year-on-year. The U.S. merchandise trade balance in March was-$90.59 billion.</p><p><img src=\"http://img.zhitongcaijing.com/images/contentformat/b94fcaf0b73f26e0f7e86a9f8b746b80.jpg\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"549\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><b>5. Inflation and commodities: Oil prices rise slightly</b></p><p>EIA crude oil inventories rose by 9 million barrels in the week of April 28, while U.S. crude oil production fell slightly by 100,000 barrels per day to 10.9 million barrels per day. As of April 29, the weekly average price of WTI crude oil rose to US $63.2/barrel; The weekly average price of Brent oil rose to US $66.6/barrel.</p><p><img src=\"http://img.zhitongcaijing.com/images/contentformat/2ea9504a69c4ccccc0e74ff1a56da96e.jpg\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"396\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><img src=\"http://img.zhitongcaijing.com/images/contentformat/e2a42a869453a51bf63a352119f75e6a.jpg\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"402\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><b>6. Real estate: The U.S. existing home contract sales index rose year-on-year in March</b></p><p>The U.S. S&P/CS home price index rose for eight consecutive months in February. In February, the U.S. S&P/CS home price index rose 11.9% year-on-year to 246.0, rising for eight consecutive months. The U.S. existing home contract sales index in March rose by 23.3% year-on-year and 1.9% month-on-month.</p><p><img src=\"http://img.zhitongcaijing.com/images/contentformat/6ac3751240b8a02c34f4c66d93fb255b.jpg\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"398\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>Japan's new housing starts and construction orders rose sharply in March. Japan's new housing starts in March were 1.5% year-on-year and 18.1% month-on-month. The number of construction orders in March was 12.5% year-on-year and 192.7% month-on-month, the highest increase in nearly a year.</p><p><img src=\"http://img.zhitongcaijing.com/images/contentformat/e961519800be12d5e185f10acff56a58.jpg\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"392\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>U.S. 5-year mortgage rates fell, while 15-year, 30-year mortgage rates rose. In the week ending April 29, the 5-year mortgage rate fell by 0.2 percentage points to 2.6%, while the 15-year and 30-year mortgage rates rose to 2.3% and 3.0% respectively. As of the week of April 23, the U.S. MBA market index fell by 18.2 to 706.6, and the housing market fell slightly.</p><p><img src=\"http://img.zhitongcaijing.com/images/contentformat/2eb2b206b830b79a11aed2265d986bec.jpg\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"395\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><b>7. Monetary policy and exchange rate: the US Dollar Index fell, gold prices were basically stable</b></p><p>The Federal Reserve's interest rate meeting was held this week. Powell's speech was dovish, the US Dollar Index fell, and gold prices were basically stable. On April 28, local time, the Federal Reserve announced a statement on the interest rate meeting. Powell said at the press conference after the meeting that it will still take some time to see substantial progress. Before that, the current scale of asset purchases will be maintained. It is not yet time to discuss Taper. the US Dollar Index continues to decline. As of April 29, the US Dollar Index closed at 90.6140, down 0.7% from last week; The exchange rates of the euro and pound against the US dollar (pound exchange rate data as of the 28th) closed at 1.2129 and 1.3906 respectively, appreciating 0.7% and depreciating 0.2% respectively from last week; As the Bank of Canada took the lead in Taper, the Canadian dollar strengthened, closing at 1.2292, an appreciation of 1.7% from last week. The average weekly gold price in London this week was US $1,774.8 per ounce, which was basically stable from last week, and the year-on-year increase fell by 1.2 pct from last week to 3.6%.</p><p><img src=\"http://img.zhitongcaijing.com/images/contentformat/c2e4e8d549f84a56f7d651806cc3a657.jpg\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"398\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><img src=\"http://img.zhitongcaijing.com/images/contentformat/09b461fbeb60aed3abf2e7ffd691b486.jpg\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"551\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> source：<a href=\"http://www.zhitongcaijing.com/content/detail/466474.html\">智通财经网</a></p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://img.zhitongcaijing.com/image/20210501/20210501134714_46528.png?x-oss-process=image/format,jpg/quality,Q_80/resize,w_250","relate_stocks":{".DJI":"道琼斯"},"source_url":"http://www.zhitongcaijing.com/content/detail/466474.html","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/6ca2dcdccfa2217fb20a0351f4efe814","article_id":"2132567538","content_text":"本文来自“申万宏源宏观”。摘要一、周观点：美国一季度GDP究竟是偏强还是偏弱?21Q1美国GDP同比0.4%，略低于市场预期。美国21Q1  GDP实际同比0.4%，疫情以来首次同比转正，环比1.6%。主要贡献因素为商品消费、服务消费、非住宅投资，显示出疫情改善+财政补贴下美国经济快速复苏。但主要拖累项为私人存货变动及进口，且实际上，美国一季度GDP增速是小幅低于市场预期的，显示市场对美国过度财政补贴导致生产恢复缓慢的认识不足，以及对疫情改善过度乐观的预期。居民消费：补贴推动商品消费，疫情缓和服务业修复。1)21Q1美国个人消费支出拉动GDP同比1.1个百分点，较20Q4大幅改善3个百分点。商品消费主要为耐用品推动，而服务消费对GDP拉动的改善幅度大于耐用品消费;2)月度高频角度，3月PCE同比8.5%，环比3.7%，在2月直接补贴真空期小幅回落后再度走强。显示3月1400美金补贴发放对于消费立竿见影的刺激效果，以及防控措施放松下服务消费的恢复。但从服务消费恢复的强度来看，实际上略弱于2-3月海外市场的过度乐观预期。投资：设备投资改善显著，利率抑制地产投资，补库存并未出现。21Q1国内私人投资拉动GDP同比0.8个百分点，较4季度小幅改善0.1个百分点。1)非住宅投资改善显示美国生产部门对经济前景预期有所改善;2)私人存货变动对21Q1  GDP同比贡献的下降是美国经济供需撕裂的体现，需求旺盛而生产恢复缓慢，从而导致库存下降，这也就意味着Q1大宗商品价格的走强并不能得到美国工业生产强劲、主动补库存逻辑的支持;3)住宅投资对GDP同比贡献基本保持稳定，环比增速则随前期美国利率的整体抬升而受到抑制。后续预计将随着利率的中期上行过程而持续降温。政府支出和净出口：补贴推动政府支出增加，供需缺口拉大导致进口高增。美国经济供需撕裂导致净出口对GDP拖累程度再度加深。21Q1净出口拖累GDP同比2个百分点，拖累程度较上20Q4扩大0.7个百分点。政府支出21Q1对GDP同比拉动0.1个百分点，主要由于美国政府向银行体系发放针对居民的直接补贴支票以及购买疫苗费用。预计美国经济复苏2季度为高点，关注疫情后续进展。我们认为未来美国经济恢复的强度依赖于疫苗接种进程，以及新冠疫情的扩散情况。在美国疫情持续缓和、服务业渐进修复的假设下，预计2季度为美国经济恢复高点，但由于过度补贴导致的供需撕裂情况将持续到9月份，年内美国经济恢复的强度或将不会如市场预期一般强劲。个人消费支出：预计1季度是商品消费高点，服务业消费将继续随着疫情缓和而渐进式恢复，但美国本土及海外国家传染性更强的病毒变种的传播也将影响后续服务业恢复强度;投资：非住宅投资的改善需要关注后续疫情进展。住宅投资将随着地产市场的逐步降温而走低;私人库存变动或要等到9月失业补贴结束之后得以改善。政府支出和净出口：政府支出预计将在4季度前持续对GDP同比形成正贡献。净出口将随着今年后期供需缺口的收窄而回到正常水平。二、全球宏观数据本周高频数据：美国耐用品新订单同环比均上升疫情：美国新增确诊病例下降。需求：日本零售销售同比大幅回升。供给与就业：美国耐用品新订单同环比均上升。贸易：美国3月进出口同比均大幅上升。通胀和大宗商品：油价小幅上行。房地产：美3月成屋签约销售指数上升。货币政策和汇率：美元指数下跌，黄金价格稳定。全球宏观日历：关注美国ISM制造业PMI正文一、周观点：美国一季度GDP究竟是偏强还是偏弱?1.21Q1美国GDP同比0.4%，略低于市场预期美国21Q1GDP实际同比0.4%，疫情以来首次同比转正，环比1.6%。主要贡献因素为商品消费、服务消费、非住宅投资，显示出疫情改善+财政补贴下美国经济相对较快的复苏。主要拖累项为私人存货变动及进口，且实际上，美国一季度GDP增速是小幅低于市场预期的，显示市场对美国过度财政补贴导致生产恢复缓慢的认识不足，以及对疫情改善过度乐观的预期。2.居民消费：补贴推动商品消费，疫情缓和服务业修复21Q1高达2000美金/人的财政补贴拉动商品消费;疫情缓和推动服务消费恢复，但略弱于前期海外市场乐观预期。1)从季度角度看，21Q1美国个人消费支出拉动GDP同比1.1个百分点，较20Q4大幅改善3个百分点，从4季度对GDP最大的拖累项一跃转为最大的贡献项，显示一季度同时具备1月600美金补贴以及3月开始发放的1400美金补贴对消费的刺激效果，以及疫情缓和下服务消费的渐次释放。2)而从月度高频角度，3月PCE同比达到8.5%，环比3.7%，在2月直接补贴真空期小幅回落后再度走强。其中，耐用品、服务消费同比增速再度提升，3月分别达到43.3%和4.8%，而非耐用品同比略有放缓(4.3%)，显示3月1400美金补贴发放对于消费立竿见影的刺激效果，以及防控措施放松下服务消费的恢复。但从服务消费恢复的强度来看，实际上略弱于2-3月海外市场的过度乐观预期。商品消费、服务消费共同驱动个人消费支出高增。1)商品消费主要为耐用品推动。21Q1商品消费对GDP拉动3.2个百分点，较20Q4改善1.5个百分点，主要归功于耐用品在一季度财政刺激下再度高增，21Q1耐用品对GDP贡献度较4季度大幅改善1.3个百分点，而非耐用品对GDP贡献度仅小幅改善0.3个百分点;2)服务消费对GDP拉动效果的改善幅度大于耐用品消费。21Q1服务消费对GDP虽然仍为-1.4%的负拉动，但已较上季度大幅改善1.6个百分点，改善幅度更甚于耐用品消费，显示出服务消费在财政补贴+疫情缓和双重因素下改善的弹性更大。3.投资：设备投资改善显著，利率抑制地产投资，补库存并未出现非住宅投资对GDP拉动效果大幅改善，私人存货转为拖累。21Q1国内私人投资拉动GDP同比0.8个百分点，较4季度小幅改善0.1个百分点。1)非住宅投资改善显示美国生产部门对经济前景预期有所改善。私人投资改善的主要贡献因素为非住宅投资(改善0.6个百分点)，其中主要来自于设备投资，显示制造业企业对经济恢复前景保持乐观。2)私人存货变动对21Q1  GDP同比贡献的下降是美国经济供需撕裂的体现，需求旺盛而生产恢复缓慢，从而导致库存下降，这也就意味着Q1大宗商品价格的走强并不能得到美国工业生产强劲、主动补库存逻辑的支持。拖累私人投资的主要因素为私人存货变动(拖累0.4个百分点)。3)住宅投资对GDP同比贡献基本保持稳定，环比增速则随前期美国利率的整体抬升而受到抑制。后续预计将随着利率的中期上行过程而持续降温。21Q1住宅投资对GDP的拉动保持稳定，但随着21年以来抵押贷款利率的逐步上行，美国房地产市场已经有所降温，住宅营建支出、成屋销售已经有所放缓，预计后续住宅投资对GDP的拉动效果将逐步下降。4.政府支出和净出口：补贴推动政府支出增加，供需缺口拉大导致进口高增美国经济供需撕裂导致净出口对GDP拖累程度再度加深。21Q1净出口拖累GDP同比2个百分点，拖累程度较上20Q4扩大0.7个百分点。1)出口拖累1个百分点，但已较上个季度改善0.2个百分点，显示美国工业生产的小幅恢复，但相比个人消费支出3.0个百分点的改善幅度仍然相形见绌，实际体现的是美国过度财政补贴下21Q1供需缺口的拉大;2)而进口在21Q1拖累GDP同比1.0个百分点，拖累程度较上季度大幅扩大0.9个百分点，美国供需缺口拉大的直接后果便是进口规模的扩大。政府支出21Q1对GDP同比拉动0.1个百分点，主要由于美国政府向银行体系发放针对居民的直接补贴支票以及购买疫苗费用。5.预计美国经济复苏2季度为高点，关注疫情后续进展展望未来，我们认为未来美国经济恢复的强度依赖于疫苗接种进程，以及新冠疫情的扩散情况。在美国疫情持续缓和、服务业渐进修复的假设下，预计2季度为美国经济恢复高点，但由于过度补贴导致的供需撕裂情况将持续到9月份，年内美国经济恢复的强度或将不会如市场预期一般强劲。个人消费支出：1)虽然21Q1商品消费显示出极为强劲的势头，但我们预计1季度已经是商品消费高点，后续将随着补贴退潮而逐步回落;2)服务业消费将继续随着疫情缓和而渐进式恢复，但3月以来全球疫情有所反弹，特别是在欧洲国家以及新兴国家，同时美国本土及海外国家传染性更强的病毒变种的传播也将影响后续服务业恢复强度。投资：1)21Q1非住宅投资的改善主要驱动力为经济向好预期，而从当前时点来看，全球疫情是决定经济恢复强度的核心因素，需要关注后续疫情进展;2)住宅投资将随着地产市场的逐步降温而走低;3)私人库存变动，即补库存的力度将依赖于美国供需撕裂的现状是否能够缓和，从当前来看，或要等到9月失业补贴结束之后，美国供需两端才能出现显著的弥合趋势，进而带动库存投资。政府支出和净出口：1)随着失业补贴在2、3季度的持续发放，政府支出预计将在4季度前持续对GDP同比形成正贡献，而如果美国就业计划或美国家庭计划能够在年内落地，也将提振政府支出水平;净出口方面，出口将依赖于美国工业生产恢复的进度，如上文所说，或要到4季度才能得到提振，进口则恰恰相反，将随着今年后期供需缺口的收窄而回落到正常水平。二、全球宏观数据：美国新增确诊病例下降1.疫情：美国新增确诊病例下降本周美国新增确诊病例下降。美国新增确诊7日平均下降至5.3万人以上。截止4月29日，全球新冠疫情累计确诊超过1.5亿，累计死亡病例314万人，累计康复病例1.2亿人。本周四天(4月27日-4月30日)美国、英国分别新增确诊病例22万人和0.9万人。截止4月28日，全球范围内平均每百人接种新冠疫苗最多的是以色列，达每百人121.1针，美国每百人70.2针，英国每百人70.9针。截止4月28日，全球范围内完全接种疫苗的人占人口比例最高的是以色列，达58.7%，美国、英国分别为29.3%、20.7%。2.需求：日本零售销售同比大幅回升日本零售销售和批发销售同比均大幅上行。日本3月零售销售指数同比5.3%，其中零售中纺织服装同比15.8%，3月批发销售指数同比1.0%。韩国3月零售销售同比持续增长，半耐用品消费大幅增长。韩国3月零售销售同比较上月上升3.5个百分点至13.5%，其中半耐用品消费增速最快，同比35.5%;耐用品同比13.6%，非耐用品同比6.5%。3.供给与就业：美国耐用品新订单同环比均上升美国耐用品库存上升，新订单增速同环比均上升。3月美国耐用品库存达4318.4亿美元，环比上升1.0%，同比增长1.7%。美国3月耐用品新订单环比上升0.5%，同比大幅上升25%。日本3月失业率下降至2.6%。3月日本失业率较上月下降0.3个百分点至2.6%。韩国工业生产指数同环比均上升，工业持续回升。韩国3月工业生产指数同比上升5.7%，环比上升0.8%至112.6。美国工业材料生产持续上升。1)截止4月24日当周，美国周度粗钢产量同比上升43.6%，产能利用率较上周小幅上升0.4个百分点至78.4%;2)截止4月23日，美国炼油厂可运营能力利用率上升0.4个百分点至85.4%。美国当周初请失业金人数小幅下降，持续申领失业金人数小幅上升。4月24日当周美国初请失业金人数达55.3万人，环比上周下降1.3万人;4月17日当周持续申领失业金人数达366万人，环比上升0.9万人。4.贸易：美国3月进出口同比均大幅上升美国3月进出口同比均大幅上升。美国3月出口增速较上月大幅上升16.5个百分点至11.5%，进口同比20.6%。美国3月份商品贸易差额为-905.9亿美元。5.通胀和大宗商品：油价小幅上行4月28日当周EIA原油库存上升900万桶，美国原油产量小幅下降10万桶/日至1090万桶/日。截止4月29日，WTI原油周均价上升至63.2美元/桶;布油周均价上升至66.6美元/桶。6.房地产：美国3月成屋签约销售指数同比上升美国2月标普/CS房价指数连续8个月上涨。2月美国标普/CS房价指数同比上升11.9%至246.0，连续8个月上涨。美国3月成屋签约销售指数同比大幅23.3%，环比1.9%。日本3月新屋开工、营建订单大幅上行。日本3月新屋开工同比1.5%，环比18.1%，3月营建订单数同比12.5%，环比192.7%，涨幅达到近一年最高。美国5年期抵押贷款利率下降，15年期、30年期抵押贷款利率上升。截止4月29日当周，5年期抵押贷款利率下降0.2个百分点至2.6%，15年期、30年期抵押贷款利率分别上升至2.3%和3.0%。截止4月23日当周，美国MBA市场指数下降18.2至706.6，房市热度小幅回落。7.货币政策和汇率：美元指数下跌，黄金价格基本稳定本周美联储议息会议召开，鲍威尔发言偏鸽，美元指数下跌，黄金价格基本稳定。当地时间4月28日，美联储公布议息会议声明，鲍威尔在会后新闻发布会上表示看到实质性进展仍需一些时间，在此之前会维持当前的资产购买规模，现在还未到讨论Taper的时间，美元指数持续下行。截至4月29日，美元指数报收90.6140，较上周下行0.7%;欧元、英镑兑美元汇率(英镑汇率数据截至28日)分别报收1.2129、1.3906，分别较上周升值0.7%、贬值0.2%;由于加拿大央行率先Taper，加元走强，报收1.2292，较上周升值1.7%。本周伦敦金周均价1774.8美元/盎司，较上周基本稳定，同比涨幅较上周下行1.2pct至3.6%。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{".DJI":0.9,"ZNmain":0.9,"ZBmain":0.9,"ZTmain":0.9,"ZFmain":0.9,"UBmain":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1584,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":358271966,"gmtCreate":1616712224855,"gmtModify":1704797666748,"author":{"id":"3565141264334143","authorId":"3565141264334143","name":"猫咪b","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e814c71340fd63db37fbcdc00197f975","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3565141264334143","idStr":"3565141264334143"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Keep dropping??","listText":"Keep dropping??","text":"Keep dropping??","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/bb1d1d7302cf0d51835d262a408ca7b1","width":"1080","height":"2709"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/358271966","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":399,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0}],"hots":[{"id":837280856,"gmtCreate":1629893344275,"gmtModify":1676530164128,"author":{"id":"3565141264334143","authorId":"3565141264334143","name":"猫咪b","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e814c71340fd63db37fbcdc00197f975","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3565141264334143","idStr":"3565141264334143"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/OPEN\">$Opendoor Technologies Inc(OPEN)$</a>when can break even?","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/OPEN\">$Opendoor Technologies Inc(OPEN)$</a>when can break even?","text":"$Opendoor Technologies Inc(OPEN)$when can break even?","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8809d8de42a5ff84d4a1635de349af07","width":"1080","height":"1920"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":2,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/837280856","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1938,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":130667342,"gmtCreate":1621542701486,"gmtModify":1704359265045,"author":{"id":"3565141264334143","authorId":"3565141264334143","name":"猫咪b","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e814c71340fd63db37fbcdc00197f975","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3565141264334143","idStr":"3565141264334143"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Agreed","listText":"Agreed","text":"Agreed","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":5,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/130667342","repostId":"1127507761","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1127507761","kind":"news","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"为用户提供金融资讯、行情、数据，旨在帮助投资者理解世界，做投资决策。","home_visible":1,"media_name":"老虎资讯综合","id":"102","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba"},"pubTimestamp":1621526566,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1127507761?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2021-05-21 00:02","market":"fut","language":"zh","title":"The United States requires encrypted digital currency transactions exceeding $10,000 to be reported to the IRS","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1127507761","media":"老虎资讯综合","summary":"美国财政部表示，拜登政府加强税收合规的提议包括要求向美国国税局报告价值超过1万美元的加密货币转账。“与现金交易一样，获得公允市场价值超过1万美元加密货币资产的企业也将需要报告”美国财政部在周四发布的一份有关税收执行提案的报告中表示。美国财政部称，全面报告是必要的，以最大限度地减少将收入从新的信息报告制度中转移出来的动机和机会，虽然加密货币只占当前商业交易的一小部分。","content":"<p>The Biden administration's proposals to strengthen tax compliance include a requirement to report cryptocurrency transfers worth more than $10,000 to the IRS, the Treasury Department said.</p><p>\"As with cash transactions, businesses that acquire cryptocurrency assets with a fair market value of more than $10,000 will also be required to report,\" the U.S. Treasury Department said in a report on tax enforcement proposals released Thursday.</p><p>According to the U.S. Treasury Department, comprehensive reporting is necessary to minimize the incentive and opportunity to divert revenue from the new information reporting system, although cryptocurrencies only account for a small portion of current commercial transactions. The IRS added a line about cryptocurrencies to individual tax returns 1040 in 2020 to get more information about virtual currency transactions.</p><p>Bitcoin fell by about $600 in the short term and is now below $41,000 per coin. The blockchain sector of the U.S. stock market fell in the short term. Coinbase's gains narrowed to 2.4%, the ninth city's gains narrowed to 1.7%, Canaan Technology's gains narrowed to 1.17%, and Riot Blockchain fell more than 1%.</p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>The United States requires encrypted digital currency transactions exceeding $10,000 to be reported to the IRS</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nThe United States requires encrypted digital currency transactions exceeding $10,000 to be reported to the IRS\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/102\">\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">老虎资讯综合 </p>\n<p class=\"h-time smaller\">2021-05-21 00:02</p>\n</div>\n</a>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>The Biden administration's proposals to strengthen tax compliance include a requirement to report cryptocurrency transfers worth more than $10,000 to the IRS, the Treasury Department said.</p><p>\"As with cash transactions, businesses that acquire cryptocurrency assets with a fair market value of more than $10,000 will also be required to report,\" the U.S. Treasury Department said in a report on tax enforcement proposals released Thursday.</p><p>According to the U.S. Treasury Department, comprehensive reporting is necessary to minimize the incentive and opportunity to divert revenue from the new information reporting system, although cryptocurrencies only account for a small portion of current commercial transactions. The IRS added a line about cryptocurrencies to individual tax returns 1040 in 2020 to get more information about virtual currency transactions.</p><p>Bitcoin fell by about $600 in the short term and is now below $41,000 per coin. The blockchain sector of the U.S. stock market fell in the short term. Coinbase's gains narrowed to 2.4%, the ninth city's gains narrowed to 1.7%, Canaan Technology's gains narrowed to 1.17%, and Riot Blockchain fell more than 1%.</p>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/414360f2ef7b5c785cb936b4a9b53a44","relate_stocks":{"COIN":"Coinbase Global, Inc.",".DJI":"道琼斯",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index","PYPL":"PayPal",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite","TSLA":"特斯拉","GBTC":"比特币ETF-Grayscale"},"is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1127507761","content_text":"美国财政部表示，拜登政府加强税收合规的提议包括要求向美国国税局报告价值超过1万美元的加密货币转账。“与现金交易一样，获得公允市场价值超过1万美元加密货币资产的企业也将需要报告”美国财政部在周四发布的一份有关税收执行提案的报告中表示。美国财政部称，全面报告是必要的，以最大限度地减少将收入从新的信息报告制度中转移出来的动机和机会，虽然加密货币只占当前商业交易的一小部分。美国国税局于2020年在个人纳税申报单1040中增加了一行关于加密货币的内容，以获得更多关于虚拟货币交易的信息。比特币短线走低约600美元，现跌破41000美元/枚。美股区块链板块短线走低，Coinbase涨幅缩窄至2.4%，第九城市涨幅收窄至1.7%，嘉楠科技涨幅收窄至1.17%，Riot Blockchain跌超1%。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"BTCmain":0.9,".DJI":0.9,".SPX":0.9,"SQ":0.9,".IXIC":0.9,"XBTmain":0.9,"TSLA":0.9,"MBTmain":0.9,"PYPL":0.9,"GBTC":0.9,"COIN":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1696,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":104292830,"gmtCreate":1620391875720,"gmtModify":1704342993033,"author":{"id":"3565141264334143","authorId":"3565141264334143","name":"猫咪b","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e814c71340fd63db37fbcdc00197f975","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3565141264334143","idStr":"3565141264334143"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"I'm strongly agree...","listText":"I'm strongly agree...","text":"I'm strongly agree...","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":2,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/104292830","repostId":"2133157839","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2340,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":816282654,"gmtCreate":1630503885478,"gmtModify":1676530322568,"author":{"id":"3565141264334143","authorId":"3565141264334143","name":"猫咪b","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e814c71340fd63db37fbcdc00197f975","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3565141264334143","idStr":"3565141264334143"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Will up continuously????","listText":"Will up continuously????","text":"Will up continuously????","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/cc6d60b554fc381f41f27c2966fbeda3","width":"1080","height":"1920"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/816282654","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1853,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":138563168,"gmtCreate":1621950089254,"gmtModify":1704364992652,"author":{"id":"3565141264334143","authorId":"3565141264334143","name":"猫咪b","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e814c71340fd63db37fbcdc00197f975","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3565141264334143","idStr":"3565141264334143"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"........","listText":"........","text":"........","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/81e86dcd83b3249220460dac0a613d31","width":"1080","height":"1920"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/138563168","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1511,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":197845101,"gmtCreate":1621447089203,"gmtModify":1704357793908,"author":{"id":"3565141264334143","authorId":"3565141264334143","name":"猫咪b","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e814c71340fd63db37fbcdc00197f975","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3565141264334143","idStr":"3565141264334143"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Someone manipulate the market????","listText":"Someone manipulate the market????","text":"Someone manipulate the market????","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/197845101","repostId":"1152189230","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1152189230","kind":"news","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"中国大陆领先的金融数据、信息和软件服务企业，总部位于上海陆家嘴金融中心。","home_visible":1,"media_name":"Wind万得","id":"99","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c71e30d1317b4a5cb20a41998e10ac68"},"pubTimestamp":1621437443,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1152189230?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2021-05-19 23:17","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"U.S. stocks continue to fall, Bitcoin is being sold wildly, and the Fed minutes will be released","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1152189230","media":"Wind万得","summary":"美股周三与大宗商品、欧洲股市和比特币一道下跌，因投资者风险偏好减弱。\n标准普尔500指数下跌1.3%，道琼斯工业指数下跌1.1%，主要股指延续近期跌势。纳斯达克综合指数下跌1.7%，科技股在股市开盘后","content":"<p>U.S. stocks fell along with commodities, European stocks and Bitcoin on Wednesday as investors' risk appetite weakened.</p><p>The S&P 500 fell 1.3% and the Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 1.1% as the major indexes extended their recent losses. The Nasdaq Composite dropped 1.7% as tech stocks fell after the market opened. Commodity markets also fell back. Futures for West Texas Intermediate, the main U.S. crude oil variety, fell 2.2% to $64.05 a barrel.</p><p>Investors turned to less risky assets such as bonds as safe havens, causing the yield on 10-year U.S. Treasury Bond to fall to 1.639% from 1.641% on Tuesday. When bond prices rise, yields fall.</p><p>Stocks have soared since March 2020, in part due to the Federal Reserve's support for markets and the economy since the early days of the pandemic. Now, the accelerated pace of inflation has some investors wondering whether the Federal Reserve will scale back bond purchases and raise interest rates. While Fed officials have said the economy remains in recovery mode and requires stimulus from the Federal Reserve, that prospect has caused shocks in stocks and other risky assets in recent weeks.</p><p>Nadège Dufossé, head of cross-asset strategy at Candriam, said the key driver now is central banks. The Fed is expected to delay providing guidance on tapering stimulus until September, when the data should provide a clearer picture of the inflation outlook. Stocks are likely to be volatile, with a possible 10% pullback, Dufossé said. The S&P 500 closed just 2.5% below its all-time high on Tuesday, despite falling in five of the past seven sessions.</p><p>According to CoinDesk data, Bitcoin has fallen 21% to $34,371.18 since 5 p.m. ET on Tuesday, suggesting that investors are pulling back from speculative bets that have emerged in large numbers this year. This is the lowest price since February this year. This also means that in<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TSLA\">Tesla</a>After announcing that it would buy $1.5 billion worth of cryptocurrency, Bitcoin has erased all gains. Bitcoin has fallen more than 50% since hitting an all-time high of $64,829 in mid-April.</p><p>Investors will look for clues on the Fed's thinking in the minutes of the April meeting due at 2 p.m. ET. Officials voted unanimously to maintain Fed policies aimed at driving down borrowing costs, with Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell saying the recovery remains uneven and incomplete.</p><p>Since then, data showing a sharp rise in inflation in April has sparked stock market jitters. Technology stocks are beneficiaries of low interest rates because their earnings are expected to extend over a long period of time and are particularly sensitive to the prospect of rising borrowing costs.</p><p>Paul Jackson, head of asset allocation research at Invesco, said, \"The market has some concerns about the actions the Federal Reserve may take in the coming months and quarters in tapering its asset purchase program.\" \"The U.S. economy is rebounding very, very strongly,\" Jackson said. \"That in itself should make Jackson feel more comfortable because it doesn't need to provide as much support as it does now.\"</p><p>In Europe, the Stoxx Europe 600 fell 1.9%, dragged down by sectors such as basic resources, oil and gas and technology stocks.</p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>U.S. stocks continue to fall, Bitcoin is being sold wildly, and the Fed minutes will be released</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nU.S. stocks continue to fall, Bitcoin is being sold wildly, and the Fed minutes will be released\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/99\">\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/c71e30d1317b4a5cb20a41998e10ac68);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">Wind万得 </p>\n<p class=\"h-time smaller\">2021-05-19 23:17</p>\n</div>\n</a>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>U.S. stocks fell along with commodities, European stocks and Bitcoin on Wednesday as investors' risk appetite weakened.</p><p>The S&P 500 fell 1.3% and the Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 1.1% as the major indexes extended their recent losses. The Nasdaq Composite dropped 1.7% as tech stocks fell after the market opened. Commodity markets also fell back. Futures for West Texas Intermediate, the main U.S. crude oil variety, fell 2.2% to $64.05 a barrel.</p><p>Investors turned to less risky assets such as bonds as safe havens, causing the yield on 10-year U.S. Treasury Bond to fall to 1.639% from 1.641% on Tuesday. When bond prices rise, yields fall.</p><p>Stocks have soared since March 2020, in part due to the Federal Reserve's support for markets and the economy since the early days of the pandemic. Now, the accelerated pace of inflation has some investors wondering whether the Federal Reserve will scale back bond purchases and raise interest rates. While Fed officials have said the economy remains in recovery mode and requires stimulus from the Federal Reserve, that prospect has caused shocks in stocks and other risky assets in recent weeks.</p><p>Nadège Dufossé, head of cross-asset strategy at Candriam, said the key driver now is central banks. The Fed is expected to delay providing guidance on tapering stimulus until September, when the data should provide a clearer picture of the inflation outlook. Stocks are likely to be volatile, with a possible 10% pullback, Dufossé said. The S&P 500 closed just 2.5% below its all-time high on Tuesday, despite falling in five of the past seven sessions.</p><p>According to CoinDesk data, Bitcoin has fallen 21% to $34,371.18 since 5 p.m. ET on Tuesday, suggesting that investors are pulling back from speculative bets that have emerged in large numbers this year. This is the lowest price since February this year. This also means that in<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TSLA\">Tesla</a>After announcing that it would buy $1.5 billion worth of cryptocurrency, Bitcoin has erased all gains. Bitcoin has fallen more than 50% since hitting an all-time high of $64,829 in mid-April.</p><p>Investors will look for clues on the Fed's thinking in the minutes of the April meeting due at 2 p.m. ET. Officials voted unanimously to maintain Fed policies aimed at driving down borrowing costs, with Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell saying the recovery remains uneven and incomplete.</p><p>Since then, data showing a sharp rise in inflation in April has sparked stock market jitters. Technology stocks are beneficiaries of low interest rates because their earnings are expected to extend over a long period of time and are particularly sensitive to the prospect of rising borrowing costs.</p><p>Paul Jackson, head of asset allocation research at Invesco, said, \"The market has some concerns about the actions the Federal Reserve may take in the coming months and quarters in tapering its asset purchase program.\" \"The U.S. economy is rebounding very, very strongly,\" Jackson said. \"That in itself should make Jackson feel more comfortable because it doesn't need to provide as much support as it does now.\"</p><p>In Europe, the Stoxx Europe 600 fell 1.9%, dragged down by sectors such as basic resources, oil and gas and technology stocks.</p>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a82005fdd5a20870413111b3adc1a547","relate_stocks":{"513500":"标普500ETF",".DJI":"道琼斯",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite","SPXU":"三倍做空标普500ETF-ProShares","SQQQ":"纳指三倍做空ETF","PSQ":"做空纳斯达克100指数ETF-ProShares","SPY":"标普500ETF","SSO":"2倍做多标普500ETF-ProShares","CAN":"嘉楠科技","QLD":"2倍做多纳斯达克100指数ETF-ProShares",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index","DXD":"两倍做空道琼30指数ETF-ProShares","SH":"做空标普500-Proshares","UDOW":"三倍做多道指30ETF-ProShares","EBON":"亿邦国际","DDM":"2倍做多道指ETF-ProShares"},"is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1152189230","content_text":"美股周三与大宗商品、欧洲股市和比特币一道下跌，因投资者风险偏好减弱。\n标准普尔500指数下跌1.3%，道琼斯工业指数下跌1.1%，主要股指延续近期跌势。纳斯达克综合指数下跌1.7%，科技股在股市开盘后下跌。大宗商品市场也出现回落。美国主要原油品种西德克萨斯中质原油(West Texas Intermediate)期货价格下跌2.2%，至每桶64.05美元。\n投资者转向债券等风险较小的资产避险，致使10年期美国国债收益率从周二的1.641%降至1.639%。当债券价格上涨时，收益率会下降。\n股市自2020年3月以来一路飙升，部分原因是美联储自疫情爆发初期以来对市场和经济支持。现在，通胀步伐加快让一些投资者开始怀疑，美联储是否会缩减债券购买规模并提高利率。尽管美联储官员曾表示，经济仍处于复苏模式，需要美联储采取刺激措施，但这一前景已导致股市和其他高风险资产近几周出现震荡。\nCandriam跨资产策略主管Nadège Dufossé表示，现在关键推动因素是央行。预计美联储将推迟到9月份才提供有关缩减刺激计划指引，届时数据应能更清晰地展现通胀前景。Dufossé说，股市可能会波动，可能会出现10%回调。标普500指数周二收盘仅比历史高点低2.5%，尽管过去七个交易日中有五个交易日下跌。\n据CoinDesk数据，自美国东部时间周二下午5点以来，比特币已下跌21%，至34371.18美元，这表明投资者正在从今年大量出现的投机押注中撤出。这是今年2月以来最低价格。这也意味着，在特斯拉宣布将购买价值15亿美元的加密货币之后，比特币已经抹去所有涨幅。自4月中旬创下64829美元历史高点以来，比特币已经跌逾50%。\n投资者将在美国东部时间下午2点公布的4月会议纪要中寻找有关美联储想法的线索。官员们一致投票决定维持美联储旨在压低借贷成本的政策，美联储主席鲍威尔表示，复苏仍不均衡且不完整。\n自那以来，数据显示4月份通胀率大幅上升，引发了股市不安。科技股是低利率受益者，因为其收益预计会延续很长一段时间，对借贷成本上升前景特别敏感。\nInvesco资产配置研究主管Paul Jackson表示，\"市场对美联储未来几个月和几个季度在缩减资产购买计划方面可能采取的行动有些担忧。\" “美国经济正在非常、非常强劲地反弹，”杰克逊说。“这本身应该会让Jackson感到更舒服，因为它不需要提供像现在这样多的支持。”\n欧洲方面，斯托克欧洲600指数(Stoxx Europe 600)下跌1.9%，受基础资源、油气和科技股等板块拖累。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"513500":0.9,".DJI":0.9,"MNQmain":0.9,"SQQQ":0.9,".SPX":0.9,"CAN":0.9,"UDOW":0.9,"QLD":0.9,"EBON":0.9,"DXD":0.9,"DDM":0.9,"SH":0.9,".IXIC":0.9,"SSO":0.9,"PSQ":0.9,"BTCmain":0.9,"SPY":0.9,"XBTmain":0.9,"SPXU":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1391,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":104295263,"gmtCreate":1620391956952,"gmtModify":1704342994695,"author":{"id":"3565141264334143","authorId":"3565141264334143","name":"猫咪b","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e814c71340fd63db37fbcdc00197f975","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3565141264334143","idStr":"3565141264334143"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Rich ppl will do.....","listText":"Rich ppl will do.....","text":"Rich ppl will do.....","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/104295263","repostId":"1174893125","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1174893125","kind":"news","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"既有深度，又有响度，研究古典互联网。","home_visible":1,"media_name":"深响","id":"1038713350","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f5b431abf34240f5bf6064f88f02fa9d"},"pubTimestamp":1620383316,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1174893125?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2021-05-07 18:28","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"After the storm of public opinion, who is still buying Tesla?","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1174893125","media":"深响","summary":"特斯拉的潜在客户会因为此次事件远离它吗？","content":"<p>The ultra-long \"standby\" Tesla rights protection incident has made the latest progress.</p><p>Recently, Ms. Tesla Car Advocate in Anyang, Henan Province issued a statement saying that without any evidence, some false statements made by Tesla and Tao Lin, Vice President of External Affairs of Tesla, have had a serious impact on her personal and family's work and life. In this regard, she has submitted a civil complaint to the court, suing Tesla and Tao Lin.</p><p>After triggering a \"storm of public opinion\", most people are waiting to see Tesla's \"joke\". After all, there have been precedents before. In 2018, Dongfeng Honda's sales fell sharply due to the impact of the \"engine door\" incident. Among them, Dongfeng Honda's sales volume decreased by 13.4% in the first half of 2018. At that time, the total automobile sales in the Chinese market maintained a year-on-year growth of 4%, and Dongfeng Honda was also one of the few automobile manufacturers whose sales declined. Throughout 2018, Honda CR-V sales cut in half, dragging down Dongfeng Honda's overall sales in 2018 by 4.1% year-on-year.</p><p>However, before that, Tesla had just handed over a beautiful \"report card\". In Q1 of 2021, Tesla's total delivery volume was 185,000 vehicles, a year-on-year increase of 108.9%, setting a record high; Revenue was US $10.389 billion, a year-on-year increase of 73.6%; The net profit attributable to ordinary shareholders under Non-GAAP was 1.052 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 363.4%.</p><p>Among them, Tesla delivered 69,000 vehicles in the Chinese market in the first quarter, three times that of the same period last year, accounting for nearly 37% of global sales; Revenue in China reached US $3.043 billion, a significant increase of 238% from US $900 million in the same period last year, accounting for 29.3% of Tesla's revenue in the first quarter. The Chinese market is still Tesla's second largest market in the world, but its scale with the US market has further shrunk.</p><p>Will potential customers of Tesla stay away from it because of this incident? With such questions in mind, \"Shenxiang\" recently visited several Tesla experience stores.</p><p><b>The number of people entering the store does not decrease</b></p><p>Tesla has been attracting much attention since it entered the Chinese market, and it seems to have a \"fire-prone constitution\". According to incomplete statistics, since 2014, the number of hot searches on Tesla has exceeded 230 times, far exceeding other car companies.</p><p>In this rights protection incident, unlike the \"verbal criticism\" on the Internet, the atmosphere of Tesla owners in the \"Eye of the Storm\" is relatively calm. A car owner said that if Tesla really has potential safety hazards, this incident is \"demining\" for the car owner; Even if not, I believe the service will be improved. \"Musk is an extreme molecule. With such a madman's company, everything is possible for its products, and good or bad is not unusual.\"</p><p>At present, the sales data for April has not yet been released, so the direct impact of rights protection on sales has not yet been reflected. However, \"Shenxiang\" recently visited several Tesla experience stores including Beijing Parkview Fangcaodi and South Fourth Ring Middle Road and found that the number of customers entering the store has not been greatly affected. In some stores, within 40 minutes, about 7 groups of guests entered the store to experience it.</p><p>At the same time, a number of Tesla employees also said that although they were deeply caught in the whirlpool of public opinion, the order situation was not greatly affected. \"Instead, they made another wave of advertisements for Tesla, which was almost'whoring for nothing '\".</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/51753458e311d7ce553a2768168a8034\" tg-width=\"550\" tg-height=\"412\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>In addition, car owners who have recently ordered their cars may find that they have to wait longer to get their cars. Some netizens said that when ordering a car on April 20th, it showed that it would take 3-5 weeks to pick up the car, but now it shows that it will take 5-7 weeks. \"I originally expected someone to unsubscribe or delay picking up the car, so that I could mention it earlier.\"</p><p>However, while Tesla is under \"siege\", car owners and prospective car owners are also under tremendous pressure, and some potential consumers do choose to wait and see. After all, in addition to being a means of transportation, the car also has a social function.</p><p>Some netizens said on the forum, \"Hurry up and solve it, otherwise the car owner will be scolded, and I will be helpless. If a person asks me why I still drive a Tesla, I will be anxious\"; \"I went to see the Model 3 today, but let's wait and see. After all, safety comes first.\"</p><p>At the same time, Tesla also issued a statement saying that in the past few days, all Tesla riders have been under pressure that they should not bear, and they are extremely sorry for this. But subtly, under this Weibo, the most commented one is \"How long have you been in this situation?\"</p><p>Indeed, to be a Tesla owner, you need to have a \"strong\" heart. Previously, Tesla made several price cuts in order to increase sales as soon as possible. According to incomplete statistics, Tesla has adjusted prices more than 10 times since February 2019.</p><p>Although this will drive new consumers to place orders, it will also make old car owners feel that their feelings are \"hurt\", and some car owners even go to Tesla stores to defend their rights. Netizens like to call Tesla owners \"leeks\" and \"cut\" them when needed. The only difference is, are you a \"new leek\" or an \"old leek\"?</p><p>In contrast, the price system of traditional car companies first sets a relatively stable official guide price. During the specific sales process, each 4S store will give some discounts according to the manufacturer's policy and sales target. Because of the public official guide price and the less transparent actual sales price, a certain balance is maintained between new and old car owners.</p><p>In view of the recent pressure on car owners and the May Day holiday, Tesla has launched benefits for new and old car owners: 45 days of free use of EAP (Enhanced Automatic Assisted Driving), free use of super charging stations during the May Day holiday, and replacement of air-conditioning filters 25% off. Behind this is to appease the emotions of old car owners on the one hand, and to stimulate consumers to place orders as soon as possible on the other hand.</p><p><b>Who's Buying Tesla?</b></p><p>Tesla officially entered China in April 2014, when Musk came to China for the first time to deliver products to the first batch of car owners. The first batch of car owners are eight entrepreneurs including Wang Dongfeng, Li Xiang, Yu Yongfu, Pan Yanming, Xu Liang and Dong Xiaoli. In addition, IT technology leaders such as Lei Jun and Cao Guowei are also the first fans of Tesla.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c1bfb0de5018bf54e4ea94b350984b44\" tg-width=\"550\" tg-height=\"366\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>In the following years, Tesla's development in China mainly went through three stages:</p><p>The first stage was from 2014 to 2019. At that time, sales in China were mainly imported Model S and Model X, with monthly sales hovering around 4,000 units;</p><p>In the second stage, from 2019 to 2020, Model 3 will be officially localized, the price will enter the range below 300,000, and the sales volume will stabilize at more than 10,000 units, with the highest exceeding 20,000 units;</p><p>The third stage is from 2021 to the present. With the launch of the domestically produced Model Y, the sales volume in the first quarter is three times that of the same period last year. In particular, the sales volume in March was 35,400 vehicles, setting a new monthly sales record in China.</p><p>At present, Tesla's cumulative sales in China have exceeded 250,000 vehicles, so who is buying Tesla?</p><p>From a geographical point of view, Beishangguang is Tesla's main \"position\". According to compulsory traffic insurance data, in 2020, the number of Tesla vehicles registered nationwide will be 139,000, of which 33,000, 26,000, 17,000, and 14,000 will be registered in Shanghai, Guangdong, Zhejiang, and Beijing respectively. The proportions are 23.7%, 18.5%, 12.4%, and 10.2% respectively, totaling 64.7%. This also means that the areas with high demand for Tesla are still the areas with relatively developed and restricted licenses in the east and coast.</p><p>In terms of the age of car owners, according to the NetEase Auto survey, Tesla owners are 30.3 years old, which is lower than the user base of many car brands. Among them, car owners aged 31 to 40 accounted for 56%, 25 to 30 accounted for 20%, and even the number of users aged 18 to 24 accounted for 3%. This also means that young people have a relatively high acceptance of Tesla.</p><p>From a professional point of view, Tesla owners are mostly engaged in the digital, technology, electronics and Internet industries. They have a certain understanding of the latest electric vehicles and new energy technologies, and they are more tolerant of some minor problems that may arise. The ability is also stronger, and many car owners even laugh at themselves as \"leeks\".</p><p>It is worth mentioning that 83% of Tesla owners own two or more cars, and electric cars are not the first car. Only 17% of car owners regard Tesla as their family's first car. This is mainly due to the number restrictions and current policies in cities such as Beijing, Shanghai and Guangzhou, which have given birth to the needs of these users.</p><p>Although Tesla has suffered various \"social beatings\" due to price cuts or tough remarks, in the long run, sales will not be greatly affected. Behind this is the law of \"true fragrance\".</p><p>Currently, Tesla's models on sale are divided into four models: Model 3, Model Y, Model X, and Model S. Among them, Model 3 and Model Y are its main models. The competitors of Tesla's Model 3 are not domestic new energy brands, but luxury mid-sized cars such as BMW 3 Series, Mercedes-Benz C-Class, and Audi A4; The \"rivals\" of Model Y are BMW X3, Mercedes-Benz GLC and Audi Q5L.</p><p>From a horizontal comparison, Model 3 and Model Y have obvious advantages in power performance, configuration and price except for their slightly inferior performance in terms of space. Among them, the maximum power and torque of the Tesla Model 3 standard version are higher than those of competing models equipped with traditional powertrains, and it can accelerate faster from 100 kilometers to 100 kilometers; In terms of price, the standard range version of Model 3 is 19%, 14% and 19% cheaper than the low-end versions of Mercedes-Benz C Series, BMW 3 Series, and Audi A4; From the configuration point of view, all Model 3 series are equipped with active safety systems as standard, and the safety level is significantly better than competing models.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/89b91c64441840bf2d3250b5605b683f\" tg-width=\"550\" tg-height=\"412\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>The market is also tilting towards Tesla, and this trend has begun to show itself in the US market. It is understood that in the U.S. market in 2020, Model 3 sales (120,000 units) have surpassed the combined sales of the three competing products (90,000 units); Although Model Y is still in the climbing period (70,000 units), it also surpasses the best-selling BMW X3 among the three competing products (60,000 units), and there is still great potential for improvement in the future.</p><p>According to the \"temper\" of Musk and Tesla, there may be more \"noise\" in the future, whether it will bring praise or criticism. However, China also needs such a \"catfish\", not only the new energy vehicle industry chain, but also the consumption habits and culture of electric vehicles.</p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>After the storm of public opinion, who is still buying Tesla?</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nAfter the storm of public opinion, who is still buying Tesla?\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/1038713350\">\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/f5b431abf34240f5bf6064f88f02fa9d);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">深响 </p>\n<p class=\"h-time smaller\">2021-05-07 18:28</p>\n</div>\n</a>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>The ultra-long \"standby\" Tesla rights protection incident has made the latest progress.</p><p>Recently, Ms. Tesla Car Advocate in Anyang, Henan Province issued a statement saying that without any evidence, some false statements made by Tesla and Tao Lin, Vice President of External Affairs of Tesla, have had a serious impact on her personal and family's work and life. In this regard, she has submitted a civil complaint to the court, suing Tesla and Tao Lin.</p><p>After triggering a \"storm of public opinion\", most people are waiting to see Tesla's \"joke\". After all, there have been precedents before. In 2018, Dongfeng Honda's sales fell sharply due to the impact of the \"engine door\" incident. Among them, Dongfeng Honda's sales volume decreased by 13.4% in the first half of 2018. At that time, the total automobile sales in the Chinese market maintained a year-on-year growth of 4%, and Dongfeng Honda was also one of the few automobile manufacturers whose sales declined. Throughout 2018, Honda CR-V sales cut in half, dragging down Dongfeng Honda's overall sales in 2018 by 4.1% year-on-year.</p><p>However, before that, Tesla had just handed over a beautiful \"report card\". In Q1 of 2021, Tesla's total delivery volume was 185,000 vehicles, a year-on-year increase of 108.9%, setting a record high; Revenue was US $10.389 billion, a year-on-year increase of 73.6%; The net profit attributable to ordinary shareholders under Non-GAAP was 1.052 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 363.4%.</p><p>Among them, Tesla delivered 69,000 vehicles in the Chinese market in the first quarter, three times that of the same period last year, accounting for nearly 37% of global sales; Revenue in China reached US $3.043 billion, a significant increase of 238% from US $900 million in the same period last year, accounting for 29.3% of Tesla's revenue in the first quarter. The Chinese market is still Tesla's second largest market in the world, but its scale with the US market has further shrunk.</p><p>Will potential customers of Tesla stay away from it because of this incident? With such questions in mind, \"Shenxiang\" recently visited several Tesla experience stores.</p><p><b>The number of people entering the store does not decrease</b></p><p>Tesla has been attracting much attention since it entered the Chinese market, and it seems to have a \"fire-prone constitution\". According to incomplete statistics, since 2014, the number of hot searches on Tesla has exceeded 230 times, far exceeding other car companies.</p><p>In this rights protection incident, unlike the \"verbal criticism\" on the Internet, the atmosphere of Tesla owners in the \"Eye of the Storm\" is relatively calm. A car owner said that if Tesla really has potential safety hazards, this incident is \"demining\" for the car owner; Even if not, I believe the service will be improved. \"Musk is an extreme molecule. With such a madman's company, everything is possible for its products, and good or bad is not unusual.\"</p><p>At present, the sales data for April has not yet been released, so the direct impact of rights protection on sales has not yet been reflected. However, \"Shenxiang\" recently visited several Tesla experience stores including Beijing Parkview Fangcaodi and South Fourth Ring Middle Road and found that the number of customers entering the store has not been greatly affected. In some stores, within 40 minutes, about 7 groups of guests entered the store to experience it.</p><p>At the same time, a number of Tesla employees also said that although they were deeply caught in the whirlpool of public opinion, the order situation was not greatly affected. \"Instead, they made another wave of advertisements for Tesla, which was almost'whoring for nothing '\".</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/51753458e311d7ce553a2768168a8034\" tg-width=\"550\" tg-height=\"412\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>In addition, car owners who have recently ordered their cars may find that they have to wait longer to get their cars. Some netizens said that when ordering a car on April 20th, it showed that it would take 3-5 weeks to pick up the car, but now it shows that it will take 5-7 weeks. \"I originally expected someone to unsubscribe or delay picking up the car, so that I could mention it earlier.\"</p><p>However, while Tesla is under \"siege\", car owners and prospective car owners are also under tremendous pressure, and some potential consumers do choose to wait and see. After all, in addition to being a means of transportation, the car also has a social function.</p><p>Some netizens said on the forum, \"Hurry up and solve it, otherwise the car owner will be scolded, and I will be helpless. If a person asks me why I still drive a Tesla, I will be anxious\"; \"I went to see the Model 3 today, but let's wait and see. After all, safety comes first.\"</p><p>At the same time, Tesla also issued a statement saying that in the past few days, all Tesla riders have been under pressure that they should not bear, and they are extremely sorry for this. But subtly, under this Weibo, the most commented one is \"How long have you been in this situation?\"</p><p>Indeed, to be a Tesla owner, you need to have a \"strong\" heart. Previously, Tesla made several price cuts in order to increase sales as soon as possible. According to incomplete statistics, Tesla has adjusted prices more than 10 times since February 2019.</p><p>Although this will drive new consumers to place orders, it will also make old car owners feel that their feelings are \"hurt\", and some car owners even go to Tesla stores to defend their rights. Netizens like to call Tesla owners \"leeks\" and \"cut\" them when needed. The only difference is, are you a \"new leek\" or an \"old leek\"?</p><p>In contrast, the price system of traditional car companies first sets a relatively stable official guide price. During the specific sales process, each 4S store will give some discounts according to the manufacturer's policy and sales target. Because of the public official guide price and the less transparent actual sales price, a certain balance is maintained between new and old car owners.</p><p>In view of the recent pressure on car owners and the May Day holiday, Tesla has launched benefits for new and old car owners: 45 days of free use of EAP (Enhanced Automatic Assisted Driving), free use of super charging stations during the May Day holiday, and replacement of air-conditioning filters 25% off. Behind this is to appease the emotions of old car owners on the one hand, and to stimulate consumers to place orders as soon as possible on the other hand.</p><p><b>Who's Buying Tesla?</b></p><p>Tesla officially entered China in April 2014, when Musk came to China for the first time to deliver products to the first batch of car owners. The first batch of car owners are eight entrepreneurs including Wang Dongfeng, Li Xiang, Yu Yongfu, Pan Yanming, Xu Liang and Dong Xiaoli. In addition, IT technology leaders such as Lei Jun and Cao Guowei are also the first fans of Tesla.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c1bfb0de5018bf54e4ea94b350984b44\" tg-width=\"550\" tg-height=\"366\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>In the following years, Tesla's development in China mainly went through three stages:</p><p>The first stage was from 2014 to 2019. At that time, sales in China were mainly imported Model S and Model X, with monthly sales hovering around 4,000 units;</p><p>In the second stage, from 2019 to 2020, Model 3 will be officially localized, the price will enter the range below 300,000, and the sales volume will stabilize at more than 10,000 units, with the highest exceeding 20,000 units;</p><p>The third stage is from 2021 to the present. With the launch of the domestically produced Model Y, the sales volume in the first quarter is three times that of the same period last year. In particular, the sales volume in March was 35,400 vehicles, setting a new monthly sales record in China.</p><p>At present, Tesla's cumulative sales in China have exceeded 250,000 vehicles, so who is buying Tesla?</p><p>From a geographical point of view, Beishangguang is Tesla's main \"position\". According to compulsory traffic insurance data, in 2020, the number of Tesla vehicles registered nationwide will be 139,000, of which 33,000, 26,000, 17,000, and 14,000 will be registered in Shanghai, Guangdong, Zhejiang, and Beijing respectively. The proportions are 23.7%, 18.5%, 12.4%, and 10.2% respectively, totaling 64.7%. This also means that the areas with high demand for Tesla are still the areas with relatively developed and restricted licenses in the east and coast.</p><p>In terms of the age of car owners, according to the NetEase Auto survey, Tesla owners are 30.3 years old, which is lower than the user base of many car brands. Among them, car owners aged 31 to 40 accounted for 56%, 25 to 30 accounted for 20%, and even the number of users aged 18 to 24 accounted for 3%. This also means that young people have a relatively high acceptance of Tesla.</p><p>From a professional point of view, Tesla owners are mostly engaged in the digital, technology, electronics and Internet industries. They have a certain understanding of the latest electric vehicles and new energy technologies, and they are more tolerant of some minor problems that may arise. The ability is also stronger, and many car owners even laugh at themselves as \"leeks\".</p><p>It is worth mentioning that 83% of Tesla owners own two or more cars, and electric cars are not the first car. Only 17% of car owners regard Tesla as their family's first car. This is mainly due to the number restrictions and current policies in cities such as Beijing, Shanghai and Guangzhou, which have given birth to the needs of these users.</p><p>Although Tesla has suffered various \"social beatings\" due to price cuts or tough remarks, in the long run, sales will not be greatly affected. Behind this is the law of \"true fragrance\".</p><p>Currently, Tesla's models on sale are divided into four models: Model 3, Model Y, Model X, and Model S. Among them, Model 3 and Model Y are its main models. The competitors of Tesla's Model 3 are not domestic new energy brands, but luxury mid-sized cars such as BMW 3 Series, Mercedes-Benz C-Class, and Audi A4; The \"rivals\" of Model Y are BMW X3, Mercedes-Benz GLC and Audi Q5L.</p><p>From a horizontal comparison, Model 3 and Model Y have obvious advantages in power performance, configuration and price except for their slightly inferior performance in terms of space. Among them, the maximum power and torque of the Tesla Model 3 standard version are higher than those of competing models equipped with traditional powertrains, and it can accelerate faster from 100 kilometers to 100 kilometers; In terms of price, the standard range version of Model 3 is 19%, 14% and 19% cheaper than the low-end versions of Mercedes-Benz C Series, BMW 3 Series, and Audi A4; From the configuration point of view, all Model 3 series are equipped with active safety systems as standard, and the safety level is significantly better than competing models.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/89b91c64441840bf2d3250b5605b683f\" tg-width=\"550\" tg-height=\"412\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>The market is also tilting towards Tesla, and this trend has begun to show itself in the US market. It is understood that in the U.S. market in 2020, Model 3 sales (120,000 units) have surpassed the combined sales of the three competing products (90,000 units); Although Model Y is still in the climbing period (70,000 units), it also surpasses the best-selling BMW X3 among the three competing products (60,000 units), and there is still great potential for improvement in the future.</p><p>According to the \"temper\" of Musk and Tesla, there may be more \"noise\" in the future, whether it will bring praise or criticism. However, China also needs such a \"catfish\", not only the new energy vehicle industry chain, but also the consumption habits and culture of electric vehicles.</p>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3f7026718c9a78c88d8a7e2e09a6f862","relate_stocks":{"TSLA":"特斯拉"},"is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1174893125","content_text":"超长“待机”的特斯拉维权事件，又有了最新进展。\n近日，河南安阳特斯拉车主张女士发布一份声明称，在没有任何证据的情况下，特斯拉公司以及特斯拉对外事务副总裁陶琳发布的一些不实言论，已经对其个人以及家人的工作生活造成了严重的影响。对此，她已向法院递交民事起诉状，起诉特斯拉和陶琳。\n在引发“舆论风暴”后，大部分人都在等着看特斯拉“笑话”。毕竟，此前已经有先例。2018年，东风本田受“机油门”事件的影响，销量大幅下滑。其中，2018年上半年，东风本田的销量下跌13.4%。当时，中国市场汽车总销量保持着4%的同比增长，东风本田也是数不多销量下滑的汽车厂商之一。2018年全年，本田CR-V销量腰斩，拖累东风本田2018年的整体销量同比下滑4.1%。\n不过，在此之前，特斯拉刚交出一份靓丽的“成绩单”。2021年Q1，特斯拉总交付量为18.5万辆，同比增长108.9%，创下历史新高；营收为103.89亿美元，同比增幅达73.6%；实现Non-GAAP下归属于普通股东的净利润10.52亿元，同比增长363.4%。\n其中，一季度中国市场特斯拉交付量达6.9万辆，是去年同期的3倍，占全球销量的近37%；中国地区收入达到30.43亿美元，较去年同期的9亿美元大幅增长238%，占特斯拉一季度营收比例达29.3%。中国市场仍是特斯拉全球第二大市场，但与美国市场的规模进一步缩小。\n特斯拉的潜在客户会因为此次事件远离它吗？带着这样的疑问，“深响”近期走访了几家特斯拉体验店。\n入店人数不减\n特斯拉自进入中国市场后，一直备受关注，似乎有一种“易火体质”。据不完全统计，2014年至今，特斯拉上热搜的次数超过230次，远超其他车企。\n在此次维权事件中，与网络上的“口诛笔伐”不同，“暴风眼”中的特斯拉车主，气氛相对平静许多。一位车主表示，如果特斯拉真有安全隐患，这起事件对车主来说是“排雷”；即使没有，相信服务上也会有所提升，“马斯克是一个极致分子，拥有这样一个狂人的公司，其产品一切都有可能，好的坏的都不稀奇。”\n目前，4月的销售数据尚未出炉，所以维权对销量的直接影响还无从体现。不过，“深响”近期走访了北京侨福芳草地、南四环中路在内的几家特斯拉体验店后发现，其客户入店量并未受到太大影响。部分门店在40分钟内，大约有7组客人进店体验。\n同时，多位特斯拉员工也表示，虽然深陷舆论漩涡，但订单情况并未受太大影响，“反而给特斯拉又做了一波广告，几乎是‘白嫖’”。\n\n另外，最近定车的车主可能会发现，需要等待更长时间才能拿到车。有网友表示，4月20号订车时候，当时显示要3-5周就可以提车，但现在显示要5-7周，“本来还指望有人退订或推迟提车，自己好能早点提到车呢。”\n不过，在特斯拉遭遇“围攻”的同时，车主和准车主也承受着巨大的压力，的确有部分潜在消费者选择观望。毕竟，车除了是一种交通工具外，还多了一层社交的功能。\n有网友在论坛表示，“快点解决吧，要不然车主跟着挨骂，我就无奈了，是个人就问我怎么还开特斯拉，我都要急眼了”；“今天去看了下Model 3，不过还是先观望吧，毕竟安全第一嘛”。\n与此同时，特斯拉也发表声明称，过去几日，让所有特斯拉车友们承受了不该承受的压力，对此她们感到万分抱歉。但微妙的是，在这条微博下，评论最多的是“你这种情况多久了？”\n确实，当特斯拉车主，需要有“强大”的内心。此前，特斯拉为了尽快提升销量，进行了多次降价。据不完全统计，从2019年2月以来，特斯拉调价超过10次。\n这虽然会带动新消费者下单，但也让老车主觉得感情受到“伤害”，甚至部分车主跑到特斯拉门店维权。网友喜欢称呼特斯拉车主为“韭菜”，需要的时候就“割”一茬。唯一不同的是，你是“新韭菜”还是“老韭菜”？\n相比之下，传统车企的价格体系，首先是制定一个相对稳定的官方指导价，各家4S店在具体销售过程中，会根据厂家政策和销量目标给出部分折扣。因为公开的官方指导价，以及不太透明的实际销售价格，所以在新老车主之间维持了某种平衡。\n鉴于最近车主承受的压力和五一小长假，特斯拉推出了针对新老车主的福利：EAP（增强版自动辅助驾驶）45天免费使用权，五一假期超级充电站免费使用，空调滤芯更换7.5折。这背后是一方面安抚老车主的情绪，另一方面也希望能刺激消费者尽早下订单。\n谁在买特斯拉？\n特斯拉正式进入中国，是在2014年4月，当时马斯克首次来到中国，向首批车主交付产品。第一批车主是包括汪东风、李想、俞永福、潘燕明、许亮、董晓栗等8位企业家。除此之外，雷军、曹国伟等IT科技界领袖也是特斯拉的首批粉丝。\n\n在随后的几年时间中，特斯拉在中国的发展，主要经历了三个阶段：\n第一阶段是从2014年到2019年，当时在中国销售主要以进口的Model S和 Model X为主，月销量销量徘徊在4000辆左右；\n第二阶段从2019年到2020年，Model 3正式国产化，价格进入30万以下区间，销量稳定在1万辆以上，最高突破2万辆；\n第三阶段是从2021年至今，伴随国产 Model Y 上市，一季度销量是去年同期的3倍。特别是3月份销量为3.54万辆，刷新在中国单月销量纪录。\n目前，特斯拉在中国销量累计超过了25万辆，那到底谁在购买特斯拉呢？\n从地域上来看，北上广是特斯拉的主要“阵地”。根据交强险数据，2020 年全国特斯拉上牌量为13.9万辆，其中在上海、广东、浙江、北京四地的上牌量分别为3.3万辆、2.6万辆、1.7万辆、1.4万辆，占比分别为 23.7%、18.5%、12.4%、10.2%，合计达 64.7%。这也意味着，当前对特斯拉需求较高的地区，仍为东部及沿海较发达且限牌的地区。\n从车主年龄上来看，根据网易汽车调查，特斯拉车主为30.3岁，这低于很多汽车品牌的用户群。其中，31岁到40岁的车主占比为56%，25岁到30岁占比为20%，甚至18岁到24岁的用户数量也占到了3%。这也意味着，年轻群体对于特斯拉的接受度比较高。\n职业上来看，特斯拉车主多是从事数码、科技、电子及互联网行业，他们对最新的电动车和新能源技术有一定的了解，对可能出现的一些小问题包容度更高，同时承受能力也更强，很多车主甚至自嘲“韭菜”。\n值得一提的是，83%的特斯拉车主拥有两辆或更多的车，电动车并非第一辆车。只有17%的车主，将特斯拉作为家庭的第一辆车，这主要是因为北上广等城市限号、现行政策，催生了这部分用户需求。\n虽然特斯拉因为降价或强硬言论，遭受各种“社会毒打”，但长远来看，销量并不会受到太大影响，这背后是“真香”定律。\n目前，特斯拉在售车型分为Model 3、Model Y、Model X、Model S四款车型。其中，Model 3和Model Y是其主力车型。特斯拉的Model 3的竞争对手，并非是国产新能源品牌，而是宝马3系、奔驰C级、奥迪A4等豪华中型轿车；Model Y的“对手”则是宝马X3、奔驰GLC和奥迪Q5L。\n横向对比来看，Model 3 和Model Y除了空间方面表现略逊，在动力性能、配置和价格上优势明显。其中，特斯拉 Model 3 标准版的最大功率与扭矩，高于搭载传统动力总成的竞品车型，百公里加速更快；从价格上看，Model 3 标准续航版比低配版的奔驰 C 系、宝马 3 系、奥迪 A4 还便宜 19%、14%和 19%；从配置来看， Model 3 全系标配主动安全系统，安全等级显著优于竞品车型。\n\n市场也正在向特斯拉倾斜，这一趋势在美国市场已经开始体现。据了解，2020 年的美国市场， Model 3 销量（12万辆）已实现对三款竞品销量总和的超越（9万辆）；Model Y 虽然仍在爬坡期（7万辆），但也超过了三款竞品中卖的最好的宝马 X3（6万辆），未来仍有很大提升潜力。\n依照马斯克和特斯拉的“脾气”，未来可能会闹出更大“动静”，不管是会带来褒奖还是批评。不过，中国也需要这样一条“鲶鱼”，不仅仅是新能源汽车产业链，也包括电动车消费习惯和文化。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"TSLA":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1429,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":104298257,"gmtCreate":1620391735079,"gmtModify":1704342990358,"author":{"id":"3565141264334143","authorId":"3565141264334143","name":"猫咪b","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e814c71340fd63db37fbcdc00197f975","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3565141264334143","idStr":"3565141264334143"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"I strongly agree.....","listText":"I strongly agree.....","text":"I strongly agree.....","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/104298257","repostId":"2133157839","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1794,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":108545235,"gmtCreate":1620045768127,"gmtModify":1704337794251,"author":{"id":"3565141264334143","authorId":"3565141264334143","name":"猫咪b","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e814c71340fd63db37fbcdc00197f975","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3565141264334143","idStr":"3565141264334143"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Really???","listText":"Really???","text":"Really???","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/108545235","repostId":"1148368936","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1148368936","kind":"news","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"追踪全球财经热点，精选影响您财富的资讯，投资理财必备神器！","home_visible":1,"media_name":"华尔街见闻","id":"1084101182","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/66809d1f5c2e43e2bdf15820c6d6897e"},"pubTimestamp":1620043274,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1148368936?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2021-05-03 20:01","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"When will the global chip \"shortage\" last? Morgan Stanley: At least until 2022","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1148368936","media":"华尔街见闻","summary":"现在是押注电动车领域长期机遇，“逢低买进”的好时机。","content":"<p>Chip supply shortages continue to plague the global auto industry,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MS\">Morgan Stanley</a>Analysts Adam Jonas and Joseph Moore said in their latest report that this situation may continue until 2022.</p><p>They believe that many automakers will be hampered by production as a result, while<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/F\">Ford Motor</a>The second quarter and full-year production and profit expectations announced last week can be regarded as the first \"profit warning\" for the automobile industry under the \"chip shortage\".</p><p>After the release of the first quarter report, Ford CEO Jim Farley predicted that as the chip shortage may worsen further, planned production in the second quarter will be forced to reduce by 50%, much higher than the 17% decline in the first quarter. Its chief financial officer John Lawler said that throughout 2021, Ford will cut production by about 1.1 million vehicles due to chip problems, losing $2.5 billion.</p><p>In late March, Ford chip supplier Renesas Electronics was forced to suspend production after a fire broke out at a factory, exacerbating the global chip shortage.</p><p>Adam Jonas and Joseph Moore believe that,<b>Due to poor planning, Ford may be the \"worst example of chip supply disruption\", which is a \"reality test\" for investors investing in OEMs.</b></p><p>However, Ford had previously been optimistic about its performance in the second half of the year, believing that chip supply would bottom out in the second quarter and improve for the rest of the year.</p><p>Adam Jonas and Joseph Moore said that now is a good time to bet on long-term opportunities in the electric vehicle space and \"buy the dip\".</p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>When will the global chip \"shortage\" last? Morgan Stanley: At least until 2022</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nWhen will the global chip \"shortage\" last? Morgan Stanley: At least until 2022\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/1084101182\">\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/66809d1f5c2e43e2bdf15820c6d6897e);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">华尔街见闻 </p>\n<p class=\"h-time smaller\">2021-05-03 20:01</p>\n</div>\n</a>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>Chip supply shortages continue to plague the global auto industry,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MS\">Morgan Stanley</a>Analysts Adam Jonas and Joseph Moore said in their latest report that this situation may continue until 2022.</p><p>They believe that many automakers will be hampered by production as a result, while<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/F\">Ford Motor</a>The second quarter and full-year production and profit expectations announced last week can be regarded as the first \"profit warning\" for the automobile industry under the \"chip shortage\".</p><p>After the release of the first quarter report, Ford CEO Jim Farley predicted that as the chip shortage may worsen further, planned production in the second quarter will be forced to reduce by 50%, much higher than the 17% decline in the first quarter. Its chief financial officer John Lawler said that throughout 2021, Ford will cut production by about 1.1 million vehicles due to chip problems, losing $2.5 billion.</p><p>In late March, Ford chip supplier Renesas Electronics was forced to suspend production after a fire broke out at a factory, exacerbating the global chip shortage.</p><p>Adam Jonas and Joseph Moore believe that,<b>Due to poor planning, Ford may be the \"worst example of chip supply disruption\", which is a \"reality test\" for investors investing in OEMs.</b></p><p>However, Ford had previously been optimistic about its performance in the second half of the year, believing that chip supply would bottom out in the second quarter and improve for the rest of the year.</p><p>Adam Jonas and Joseph Moore said that now is a good time to bet on long-term opportunities in the electric vehicle space and \"buy the dip\".</p>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/03e38a3a3c63bd5a9d8d8ca2d384d1c5","relate_stocks":{"159813":"芯片","MS":"摩根士丹利"},"is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1148368936","content_text":"芯片供应短缺持续困扰全球汽车业，摩根士丹利分析师Adam Jonas和Joseph Moore在最新报告中表示，这一局面或将持续到2022年。\n他们认为，许多汽车制造商将因此生产受阻，而福特汽车上周公布的二季度和全年产量、盈利预期，算是“芯片荒”下汽车业的第一个“盈利预警”。\n一季报公布后，福特CEO Jim Farley预计，由于芯片短缺可能进一步恶化，二季度计划产量将被迫减少50%，远高于一季度17%的降幅。其首席财务官John Lawler表示，2021年全年，福特将因芯片问题减产汽车约110万辆，损失25亿美元。\n3月底，福特芯片供应商瑞萨电子(Renesas Electronics)旗下一家工厂发生火灾后被迫停产，加剧全球芯片短缺。\nAdam Jonas和Joseph Moore认为，由于规划不善，福特可能是受到“芯片供应中断影响最严重例子”，这对投资OEM代工的投资者来说，是一次“现实的检验”。\n不过，福特此前对下半年表现持乐观预期，认为芯片供应将在二季度触底，并在今年剩余时间内有所改善。\nAdam Jonas和Joseph Moore表示，现在是押注电动车领域长期机遇，“逢低买进”的好时机。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"159813":0.9,"MS":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1485,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":108095871,"gmtCreate":1619956987093,"gmtModify":1704336758995,"author":{"id":"3565141264334143","authorId":"3565141264334143","name":"猫咪b","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e814c71340fd63db37fbcdc00197f975","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3565141264334143","idStr":"3565141264334143"},"themes":[],"htmlText":".....","listText":".....","text":".....","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/108095871","repostId":"2132567538","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"2132567538","kind":"highlight","pubTimestamp":1619941518,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/2132567538?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2021-05-02 15:45","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"Is the GDP of the United States strong or weak in the first quarter?","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2132567538","media":"智通财经网","summary":"本文来自“申万宏源宏观”。摘要一、周观点：美国一季度GDP究竟是偏强还是偏弱?21Q1美国GDP同比0.4%，略低于市场预期。美国21Q1  GDP实际同比0.4%，疫情以来首次同比转正，环比1.6%","content":"<p><b>This article comes from \"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/000166\">Shenwan Hongyuan</a>Macro \".</b></p><p>SUMMARY</p><p><b>1. Zhou's point of view: Is the GDP of the United States strong or weak in the first quarter?</b></p><p><b>U.S. GDP in 21Q1 was 0.4% year-on-year, slightly lower than market expectations.</b>The actual 21Q1 GDP of the United States was 0.4% year-on-year, turning positive year-on-year for the first time since the epidemic, and 1.6% month-on-month. The main contributing factors are commodity consumption, service consumption, and non-residential investment, showing the rapid recovery of the U.S. economy under the improvement of the epidemic and fiscal subsidies. However, the main drag items are changes in private inventories and imports. In fact, the GDP growth rate of the United States in the first quarter was slightly lower than market expectations, indicating that the market lacks understanding of the slow recovery of production caused by excessive fiscal subsidies in the United States, and is overly optimistic about the improvement of the epidemic. expectations.</p><p><b>Household consumption: Subsidies promote commodity consumption, and the epidemic situation eases and the service industry recovers.</b>1) In 21Q1, U.S. personal consumption expenditures drove GDP by 1.1 percentage points year-on-year, a significant improvement of 3 percentage points from 20Q4. Commodity consumption is mainly driven by durable goods, while service consumption has a greater improvement in GDP than durable goods consumption; 2) From a monthly high-frequency perspective, PCE in March was 8.5% year-on-year and 3.7% month-on-month. It strengthened again after falling slightly during the direct subsidy vacuum period in February. It shows the immediate stimulating effect of the subsidy of US $1,400 in March on consumption, as well as the recovery of service consumption under the relaxation of prevention and control measures. However, judging from the intensity of the recovery of service consumption, it is actually slightly weaker than the overly optimistic expectations of overseas markets in February-March.</p><p><b>Investment: Equipment investment has improved significantly, interest rates have suppressed real estate investment, and inventory replenishment has not occurred.</b>In 21Q1, domestic private investment drove GDP by 0.8 percentage points year-on-year, a slight improvement of 0.1 percentage points from the fourth quarter. 1) The improvement in non-residential investment shows that the U.S. production sector's expectations for the economic outlook have improved; 2) The year-on-year decline in the contribution of private inventory changes to 21Q1 GDP is a manifestation of the tear between supply and demand in the U.S. economy. Strong demand and slow recovery of production have led to a decline in inventory. This means that the strengthening of commodity prices in Q1 cannot be supported by U.S. industrial production. Supported by strong and active inventory replenishment logic; 3) The year-on-year contribution of residential investment to GDP remained basically stable, while the month-on-month growth rate was suppressed by the overall increase in U.S. interest rates in the previous period. The follow-up is expected to continue to cool down with the medium-term upward process of interest rates.</p><p><b>Government expenditure and net exports: Subsidies drive the increase of government expenditure, and the widening gap between supply and demand leads to the high increase of imports.</b>The tear between supply and demand in the U.S. economy has caused net exports to deepen the drag on GDP again. Net exports in 21Q1 dragged down GDP by 2 percentage points year-on-year, and the degree of drag was 0.7 percentage points higher than that in 20Q4. Government expenditure in 21Q1 boosted GDP by 0.1 percentage points year-on-year, mainly due to the U.S. government's issuance of direct subsidy checks to residents to the banking system and the cost of purchasing vaccines.</p><p><b>It is expected that the U.S. economic recovery will reach a high point in the second quarter. Pay attention to the follow-up progress of the epidemic.</b>We believe that the strength of future U.S. economic recovery depends on the vaccination process and the spread of COVID-19 pandemic. Under the assumption that the epidemic situation in the United States continues to ease and the service industry gradually recovers, the second quarter is expected to be the highest point for the recovery of the U.S. economy. However, the tear between supply and demand caused by excessive subsidies will continue until September, and the intensity of the recovery of the U.S. economy during the year may not be as strong as the market expected. Personal consumption expenditure: It is expected that the first quarter will be the high point of commodity consumption, and service industry consumption will continue to gradually recover as the epidemic eases. However, the spread of more contagious virus variants in the United States and overseas countries will also affect the subsequent recovery intensity of service industry; Investment: The improvement of non-residential investment needs to pay attention to the subsequent progress of the epidemic. Residential investment will decline with the gradual cooling of the real estate market; Private inventory changes may wait until September after the end of unemployment benefits. Government expenditure and net exports: Government expenditure is expected to continue to make a positive contribution to GDP year-on-year before the fourth quarter. Net exports will return to normal levels as the gap between supply and demand narrows later this year.</p><p><b>2. Global macro data</b></p><p><b>High-frequency data this week</b>: New orders for durable goods in the United States increased year-on-month</p><p><b>Epidemic</b>: New confirmed cases in the United States declined.</p><p><b>Demand</b>: Japan's retail sales rebounded sharply year-on-year.</p><p><b>Supply and employment</b>: New orders for durable goods in the United States increased year-on-month.</p><p><b>Trade</b>: U.S. imports and exports both rose sharply year-on-year in March.</p><p><b>Inflation and Commodities</b>: Oil prices rose slightly.</p><p><b>Real Estate</b>: The U.S. existing home contract sales index rose in March.</p><p><b>Monetary policy and exchange rates</b>: the US Dollar Index falls, gold prices stabilize.</p><p><b>Global Macro Calendar</b>: Focus on US ISM Manufacturing PMI</p><p>text</p><p><b>1. Zhou's point of view: Is the GDP of the United States strong or weak in the first quarter?</b></p><p><b>1.21 Q1 U.S. GDP was 0.4% year-on-year, slightly lower than market expectations</b></p><p>The actual 21Q1 GDP of the United States was 0.4% year-on-year, turning positive year-on-year for the first time since the epidemic, and 1.6% month-on-month. The main contributing factors are commodity consumption, service consumption, and non-residential investment, showing the relatively rapid recovery of the U.S. economy under the improvement of the epidemic and fiscal subsidies. The main drag items are changes in private inventories and imports. In fact, the GDP growth rate of the United States in the first quarter was slightly lower than market expectations, indicating that the market lacks understanding of the slow recovery of production caused by excessive fiscal subsidies in the United States, and is overly optimistic about the improvement of the epidemic. expectations.</p><p><img src=\"http://img.zhitongcaijing.com/images/contentformat/867b3b31bf5a4410ca85884cf283ce1f.jpg\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"588\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><b>2. Household consumption: Subsidies promote commodity consumption, and the epidemic eases and the service industry recovers</b></p><p>In 21Q1, financial subsidies of up to 2,000 USD/person stimulate commodity consumption; The easing of the epidemic has promoted the recovery of service consumption, but it is slightly weaker than the early optimistic expectations of overseas markets. 1) From a quarterly perspective, U.S. personal consumption expenditure in 21Q1 drove GDP by 1.1 percentage points year-on-year, a significant improvement of 3 percentage points from 20Q4. It jumped from the largest drag on GDP in the fourth quarter to the largest contribution, showing that the first quarter also had The stimulating effect of the US $600 subsidy in January and the US $1,400 subsidy issued in March on consumption, as well as the gradual release of service consumption as the epidemic eases. 2) From the perspective of monthly high frequency, PCE in March reached 8.5% year-on-year and 3.7% month-on-month. It strengthened again after falling slightly during the direct subsidy vacuum period in February. Among them, the year-on-year growth rate of durable goods and service consumption increased again, reaching 43.3% and 4.8% respectively in March, while non-durable goods slowed down slightly (4.3%) year-on-year, indicating that the subsidy of US $1,400 in March had an immediate stimulus effect on consumption, and the recovery of service consumption under the relaxation of prevention and control measures. However, judging from the intensity of the recovery of service consumption, it is actually slightly weaker than the overly optimistic expectations of overseas markets in February-March.</p><p><img src=\"http://img.zhitongcaijing.com/images/contentformat/fb6a3cdada866cc05b11f3b44abb7b40.jpg\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"398\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>Commodity consumption and service consumption jointly drive the high increase of personal consumption expenditure. 1) Commodity consumption is mainly driven by durable goods. Commodity consumption in 21Q1 boosted GDP by 3.2 percentage points, an improvement of 1.5 percentage points compared with 20Q4, mainly due to the high growth of durable goods again under the fiscal stimulus in the first quarter. The contribution of durable goods to GDP in 21Q1 improved significantly by 1.3 percentage points compared with the fourth quarter, while the contribution of non-durable goods to GDP only slightly improved by 0.3 percentage points; 2) The improvement of service consumption on GDP is greater than that of durable goods consumption. Although service consumption in 21Q1 still has a negative pull of-1.4% on GDP, it has improved significantly by 1.6 percentage points compared with the previous quarter, and the improvement rate is even greater than that of durable goods consumption, showing that service consumption has improved under the dual factors of fiscal subsidies and epidemic easing. The flexibility is greater.</p><p><img src=\"http://img.zhitongcaijing.com/images/contentformat/e8b1b37f95a3c799e28a194bc63e56e7.jpg\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"399\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><b>3. Investment: Equipment investment has improved significantly, interest rates have suppressed real estate investment, and inventory replenishment has not occurred</b></p><p>The effect of non-residential investment on GDP has been greatly improved, and private inventory has turned into a drag. In 21Q1, domestic private investment drove GDP by 0.8 percentage points year-on-year, a slight improvement of 0.1 percentage points from the fourth quarter.</p><p>1) The improvement in non-residential investment shows that the U.S. production sector's expectations for the economic outlook have improved. The main contributor to the improvement of private investment is non-residential investment (an improvement of 0.6 percentage points), which mainly comes from equipment investment, indicating that manufacturing companies remain optimistic about the prospects for economic recovery.</p><p>2) The year-on-year decline in the contribution of private inventory changes to 21Q1 GDP is a manifestation of the tear between supply and demand in the U.S. economy. Strong demand and slow recovery of production have led to a decline in inventories. This means that the strengthening of commodity prices in Q1 cannot be supported by U.S. industrial production. Supported by strong and active inventory replenishment logic. The main drag on private investment was the change of private inventory (0.4 percentage points).</p><p>3) The year-on-year contribution of residential investment to GDP remained basically stable, while the month-on-month growth rate was suppressed by the overall increase in U.S. interest rates in the previous period. The follow-up is expected to continue to cool down with the medium-term upward process of interest rates. The pull of residential investment on GDP in 21Q1 remained stable. However, with the gradual increase of mortgage interest rates in the past 21 years, the U.S. real estate market has cooled down, and residential construction expenditures and existing home sales have slowed down. It is expected that subsequent residential investment will have an impact on GDP. The pulling effect will gradually decline.</p><p><img src=\"http://img.zhitongcaijing.com/images/contentformat/8831f8bd60fdfc9671df61b6e741faaa.jpg\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"393\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><b>4. Government expenditure and net exports: Subsidies drive the increase of government expenditure, and the widening gap between supply and demand leads to the high increase of imports</b></p><p>The tear between supply and demand in the U.S. economy has caused net exports to deepen the drag on GDP again. Net exports in 21Q1 dragged down GDP by 2 percentage points year-on-year, and the degree of drag was 0.7 percentage points higher than that in 20Q4. 1) Exports dragged down by 1 percentage point, but have improved by 0.2 percentage points from the previous quarter, showing a slight recovery in U.S. industrial production, but it is still dwarfed by the 3.0 percentage point improvement in personal consumption expenditures. What actually reflects the excessive fiscal subsidies in the United States. The widening gap between supply and demand in 21Q1; 2) Imports dragged down GDP by 1.0 percentage points year-on-year in 21Q1, a significant increase of 0.9 percentage points compared with the previous quarter. The direct consequence of the widening gap between supply and demand in the United States is the expansion of import scale.</p><p>Government expenditure in 21Q1 boosted GDP by 0.1 percentage points year-on-year, mainly due to the U.S. government's issuance of direct subsidy checks to residents to the banking system and the cost of purchasing vaccines.</p><p><img src=\"http://img.zhitongcaijing.com/images/contentformat/1e6d4ceb162a00ae93de51b3cf6bb71b.jpg\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"386\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><b>5. The U.S. economic recovery is expected to reach a high point in the second quarter, and pay attention to the follow-up progress of the epidemic</b></p><p>Looking ahead, we believe that the strength of future U.S. economic recovery depends on the vaccination process and the spread of COVID-19 pandemic. Under the assumption that the epidemic situation in the United States continues to ease and the service industry gradually recovers, the second quarter is expected to be the highest point for the recovery of the U.S. economy. However, the tear between supply and demand caused by excessive subsidies will continue until September, and the intensity of the recovery of the U.S. economy during the year may not be as strong as the market expected.</p><p>Personal consumption expenditure: 1) Although commodity consumption in 21Q1 showed extremely strong momentum, we expect that the first quarter was already the high point of commodity consumption, and it will gradually decline as subsidies ebb; 2) Consumption in the service industry will continue to gradually recover as the epidemic eases, but the global epidemic has rebounded since March, especially in European countries and emerging countries. At the same time, the spread of more contagious virus variants in the United States and overseas countries will also affect the subsequent recovery intensity of the service industry.</p><p>Investment: 1) The main driving force for the improvement of non-residential investment in 21Q1 is the expectation of economic improvement. From the current point of view, the global epidemic is the core factor that determines the intensity of economic recovery, and we need to pay attention to the subsequent progress of the epidemic; 2) Residential investment will decline as the real estate market gradually cools down; 3) Changes in private inventories, that is, the intensity of inventory replenishment will depend on whether the current situation of the tearing between supply and demand in the United States can be alleviated. From the current point of view, it may not be until the end of unemployment subsidies in September that there will be a significant bridging trend between the supply and demand ends in the United States. Then drive inventory investment.</p><p>Government expenditure and net exports: 1) As unemployment subsidies continue to be paid in the second and third quarters, government expenditure is expected to continue to make a positive contribution to GDP year-on-year before the fourth quarter, and if the U.S. employment plan or the U.S. household plan can be implemented within the year, it will also boost the level of government spending; In terms of net exports, exports will depend on the progress of the recovery of U.S. industrial production. As mentioned above, it may not be boosted until the fourth quarter. Imports, on the contrary, will fall back to normal as the gap between supply and demand narrows later this year. level.</p><p><img src=\"http://img.zhitongcaijing.com/images/contentformat/32e1b124c2e79173310a2a69f29f1ee7.jpg\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"547\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><b>2. Global macro data: New confirmed cases in the United States decreased</b></p><p><b>1. Epidemic situation: New confirmed cases in the United States decreased</b></p><p>The number of new confirmed cases in the United States dropped this week. The average number of newly diagnosed cases in the United States dropped to more than 53,000 on the 7th day. As of April 29, the total number of confirmed cases in COVID-19 pandemic worldwide exceeded 150 million, the total number of deaths was 3.14 million, and the total number of recovered cases was 120 million. In the four days of this week (April 27-April 30), there were 220,000 and 9,000 new confirmed cases in the United States and the United Kingdom respectively.</p><p>As of April 28, the most COVID-19 vaccine vaccinations per 100 people worldwide were in Israel, reaching 121.1 shots per 100 people, 70.2 shots per 100 people in the United States, and 70.9 shots per 100 people in the United Kingdom. As of April 28, Israel has the highest proportion of fully vaccinated people in the world, reaching 58.7%, while the United States and the United Kingdom have 29.3% and 20.7% respectively.</p><p><img src=\"http://img.zhitongcaijing.com/images/contentformat/887a942234cb8fe459a2f83e1d51371f.jpg\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"591\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><img src=\"http://img.zhitongcaijing.com/images/contentformat/62573bfd15fa133a1b4a5d4e236f878d.jpg\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"397\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><b>2. Demand: Japan's retail sales rebounded sharply year-on-year</b></p><p>Japan's retail sales and wholesale sales both rose sharply year-on-year. Japan's retail sales index in March was 5.3% year-on-year, of which textiles and clothing in retail sales were 15.8% year-on-year, and the wholesale sales index in March was 1.0% year-on-year.</p><p><img src=\"http://img.zhitongcaijing.com/images/contentformat/a115423dbfa92a2b68fd1ddba7b7202c.jpg\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"432\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>South Korea's retail sales continued to grow year-on-year in March, and semi-durable goods consumption increased significantly. South Korea's retail sales in March increased by 3.5 percentage points year-on-year to 13.5%, with semi-durable goods consumption growing the fastest, 35.5% year-on-year; Durable goods were 13.6% year-on-year, and non-durable goods were 6.5% year-on-year.</p><p><img src=\"http://img.zhitongcaijing.com/images/contentformat/660433692ab7c356ac6e92af5532c956.jpg\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"549\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><b>3. Supply and employment: New orders for durable goods in the United States rose year-on-month</b></p><p>U.S. durable goods inventories rose, and the growth rate of new orders rose year-on-month. U.S. durable goods inventories reached US $431.84 billion in March, a month-on-month increase of 1.0% and a year-on-year increase of 1.7%. New orders for durable goods in the United States rose by 0.5% month-on-month in March, a sharp increase of 25% year-on-year.</p><p><img src=\"http://img.zhitongcaijing.com/images/contentformat/00d167c28987b587b0353bdb22cabcb3.jpg\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"397\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>Japan's unemployment rate fell to 2.6% in March. Japan's unemployment rate fell 0.3 percentage points from the previous month to 2.6% in March. South Korea's industrial production index rose year-on-month, and the industry continued to rebound. South Korea's industrial production index rose 5.7% year-on-year and 0.8% month-on-month to 112.6 in March.</p><p><img src=\"http://img.zhitongcaijing.com/images/contentformat/3e518f69ea70eb9423bd2c4c0800a9d4.jpg\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"393\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>U.S. industrial materials production continues to rise. 1) In the week ending April 24, U.S. weekly crude steel production increased by 43.6% year-on-year, and capacity utilization increased slightly by 0.4 percentage points from last week to 78.4%; 2) As of April 23, the operational capacity utilization rate of U.S. refineries increased by 0.4 percentage points to 85.4%.</p><p><img src=\"http://img.zhitongcaijing.com/images/contentformat/08378049f4011957a1ca13a61b5f7ee9.jpg\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"395\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>The number of initial jobless claims in the United States fell slightly during the week, while the number of continuing jobless claims rose slightly. The number of initial jobless claims in the United States reached 553,000 in the week of April 24, a decrease of 13,000 from last week; The number of people who continued to apply for unemployment benefits in the week of April 17 reached 3.66 million, an increase of 9,000 from the previous month.</p><p><img src=\"http://img.zhitongcaijing.com/images/contentformat/50abaebb23322c65845134f36edf2eac.jpg\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"550\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><b>4. Trade: U.S. imports and exports rose sharply year-on-year in March</b></p><p>U.S. imports and exports both rose sharply year-on-year in March. U.S. export growth in March rose sharply by 16.5 percentage points from the previous month to 11.5%, and imports were 20.6% year-on-year. The U.S. merchandise trade balance in March was-$90.59 billion.</p><p><img src=\"http://img.zhitongcaijing.com/images/contentformat/b94fcaf0b73f26e0f7e86a9f8b746b80.jpg\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"549\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><b>5. Inflation and commodities: Oil prices rise slightly</b></p><p>EIA crude oil inventories rose by 9 million barrels in the week of April 28, while U.S. crude oil production fell slightly by 100,000 barrels per day to 10.9 million barrels per day. As of April 29, the weekly average price of WTI crude oil rose to US $63.2/barrel; The weekly average price of Brent oil rose to US $66.6/barrel.</p><p><img src=\"http://img.zhitongcaijing.com/images/contentformat/2ea9504a69c4ccccc0e74ff1a56da96e.jpg\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"396\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><img src=\"http://img.zhitongcaijing.com/images/contentformat/e2a42a869453a51bf63a352119f75e6a.jpg\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"402\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><b>6. Real estate: The U.S. existing home contract sales index rose year-on-year in March</b></p><p>The U.S. S&P/CS home price index rose for eight consecutive months in February. In February, the U.S. S&P/CS home price index rose 11.9% year-on-year to 246.0, rising for eight consecutive months. The U.S. existing home contract sales index in March rose by 23.3% year-on-year and 1.9% month-on-month.</p><p><img src=\"http://img.zhitongcaijing.com/images/contentformat/6ac3751240b8a02c34f4c66d93fb255b.jpg\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"398\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>Japan's new housing starts and construction orders rose sharply in March. Japan's new housing starts in March were 1.5% year-on-year and 18.1% month-on-month. The number of construction orders in March was 12.5% year-on-year and 192.7% month-on-month, the highest increase in nearly a year.</p><p><img src=\"http://img.zhitongcaijing.com/images/contentformat/e961519800be12d5e185f10acff56a58.jpg\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"392\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>U.S. 5-year mortgage rates fell, while 15-year, 30-year mortgage rates rose. In the week ending April 29, the 5-year mortgage rate fell by 0.2 percentage points to 2.6%, while the 15-year and 30-year mortgage rates rose to 2.3% and 3.0% respectively. As of the week of April 23, the U.S. MBA market index fell by 18.2 to 706.6, and the housing market fell slightly.</p><p><img src=\"http://img.zhitongcaijing.com/images/contentformat/2eb2b206b830b79a11aed2265d986bec.jpg\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"395\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><b>7. Monetary policy and exchange rate: the US Dollar Index fell, gold prices were basically stable</b></p><p>The Federal Reserve's interest rate meeting was held this week. Powell's speech was dovish, the US Dollar Index fell, and gold prices were basically stable. On April 28, local time, the Federal Reserve announced a statement on the interest rate meeting. Powell said at the press conference after the meeting that it will still take some time to see substantial progress. Before that, the current scale of asset purchases will be maintained. It is not yet time to discuss Taper. the US Dollar Index continues to decline. As of April 29, the US Dollar Index closed at 90.6140, down 0.7% from last week; The exchange rates of the euro and pound against the US dollar (pound exchange rate data as of the 28th) closed at 1.2129 and 1.3906 respectively, appreciating 0.7% and depreciating 0.2% respectively from last week; As the Bank of Canada took the lead in Taper, the Canadian dollar strengthened, closing at 1.2292, an appreciation of 1.7% from last week. The average weekly gold price in London this week was US $1,774.8 per ounce, which was basically stable from last week, and the year-on-year increase fell by 1.2 pct from last week to 3.6%.</p><p><img src=\"http://img.zhitongcaijing.com/images/contentformat/c2e4e8d549f84a56f7d651806cc3a657.jpg\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"398\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><img src=\"http://img.zhitongcaijing.com/images/contentformat/09b461fbeb60aed3abf2e7ffd691b486.jpg\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"551\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>","source":"highlight_zhitongcaijin","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Is the GDP of the United States strong or weak in the first quarter?</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nIs the GDP of the United States strong or weak in the first quarter?\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">智通财经网</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-05-02 15:45</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><b>This article comes from \"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/000166\">Shenwan Hongyuan</a>Macro \".</b></p><p>SUMMARY</p><p><b>1. Zhou's point of view: Is the GDP of the United States strong or weak in the first quarter?</b></p><p><b>U.S. GDP in 21Q1 was 0.4% year-on-year, slightly lower than market expectations.</b>The actual 21Q1 GDP of the United States was 0.4% year-on-year, turning positive year-on-year for the first time since the epidemic, and 1.6% month-on-month. The main contributing factors are commodity consumption, service consumption, and non-residential investment, showing the rapid recovery of the U.S. economy under the improvement of the epidemic and fiscal subsidies. However, the main drag items are changes in private inventories and imports. In fact, the GDP growth rate of the United States in the first quarter was slightly lower than market expectations, indicating that the market lacks understanding of the slow recovery of production caused by excessive fiscal subsidies in the United States, and is overly optimistic about the improvement of the epidemic. expectations.</p><p><b>Household consumption: Subsidies promote commodity consumption, and the epidemic situation eases and the service industry recovers.</b>1) In 21Q1, U.S. personal consumption expenditures drove GDP by 1.1 percentage points year-on-year, a significant improvement of 3 percentage points from 20Q4. Commodity consumption is mainly driven by durable goods, while service consumption has a greater improvement in GDP than durable goods consumption; 2) From a monthly high-frequency perspective, PCE in March was 8.5% year-on-year and 3.7% month-on-month. It strengthened again after falling slightly during the direct subsidy vacuum period in February. It shows the immediate stimulating effect of the subsidy of US $1,400 in March on consumption, as well as the recovery of service consumption under the relaxation of prevention and control measures. However, judging from the intensity of the recovery of service consumption, it is actually slightly weaker than the overly optimistic expectations of overseas markets in February-March.</p><p><b>Investment: Equipment investment has improved significantly, interest rates have suppressed real estate investment, and inventory replenishment has not occurred.</b>In 21Q1, domestic private investment drove GDP by 0.8 percentage points year-on-year, a slight improvement of 0.1 percentage points from the fourth quarter. 1) The improvement in non-residential investment shows that the U.S. production sector's expectations for the economic outlook have improved; 2) The year-on-year decline in the contribution of private inventory changes to 21Q1 GDP is a manifestation of the tear between supply and demand in the U.S. economy. Strong demand and slow recovery of production have led to a decline in inventory. This means that the strengthening of commodity prices in Q1 cannot be supported by U.S. industrial production. Supported by strong and active inventory replenishment logic; 3) The year-on-year contribution of residential investment to GDP remained basically stable, while the month-on-month growth rate was suppressed by the overall increase in U.S. interest rates in the previous period. The follow-up is expected to continue to cool down with the medium-term upward process of interest rates.</p><p><b>Government expenditure and net exports: Subsidies drive the increase of government expenditure, and the widening gap between supply and demand leads to the high increase of imports.</b>The tear between supply and demand in the U.S. economy has caused net exports to deepen the drag on GDP again. Net exports in 21Q1 dragged down GDP by 2 percentage points year-on-year, and the degree of drag was 0.7 percentage points higher than that in 20Q4. Government expenditure in 21Q1 boosted GDP by 0.1 percentage points year-on-year, mainly due to the U.S. government's issuance of direct subsidy checks to residents to the banking system and the cost of purchasing vaccines.</p><p><b>It is expected that the U.S. economic recovery will reach a high point in the second quarter. Pay attention to the follow-up progress of the epidemic.</b>We believe that the strength of future U.S. economic recovery depends on the vaccination process and the spread of COVID-19 pandemic. Under the assumption that the epidemic situation in the United States continues to ease and the service industry gradually recovers, the second quarter is expected to be the highest point for the recovery of the U.S. economy. However, the tear between supply and demand caused by excessive subsidies will continue until September, and the intensity of the recovery of the U.S. economy during the year may not be as strong as the market expected. Personal consumption expenditure: It is expected that the first quarter will be the high point of commodity consumption, and service industry consumption will continue to gradually recover as the epidemic eases. However, the spread of more contagious virus variants in the United States and overseas countries will also affect the subsequent recovery intensity of service industry; Investment: The improvement of non-residential investment needs to pay attention to the subsequent progress of the epidemic. Residential investment will decline with the gradual cooling of the real estate market; Private inventory changes may wait until September after the end of unemployment benefits. Government expenditure and net exports: Government expenditure is expected to continue to make a positive contribution to GDP year-on-year before the fourth quarter. Net exports will return to normal levels as the gap between supply and demand narrows later this year.</p><p><b>2. Global macro data</b></p><p><b>High-frequency data this week</b>: New orders for durable goods in the United States increased year-on-month</p><p><b>Epidemic</b>: New confirmed cases in the United States declined.</p><p><b>Demand</b>: Japan's retail sales rebounded sharply year-on-year.</p><p><b>Supply and employment</b>: New orders for durable goods in the United States increased year-on-month.</p><p><b>Trade</b>: U.S. imports and exports both rose sharply year-on-year in March.</p><p><b>Inflation and Commodities</b>: Oil prices rose slightly.</p><p><b>Real Estate</b>: The U.S. existing home contract sales index rose in March.</p><p><b>Monetary policy and exchange rates</b>: the US Dollar Index falls, gold prices stabilize.</p><p><b>Global Macro Calendar</b>: Focus on US ISM Manufacturing PMI</p><p>text</p><p><b>1. Zhou's point of view: Is the GDP of the United States strong or weak in the first quarter?</b></p><p><b>1.21 Q1 U.S. GDP was 0.4% year-on-year, slightly lower than market expectations</b></p><p>The actual 21Q1 GDP of the United States was 0.4% year-on-year, turning positive year-on-year for the first time since the epidemic, and 1.6% month-on-month. The main contributing factors are commodity consumption, service consumption, and non-residential investment, showing the relatively rapid recovery of the U.S. economy under the improvement of the epidemic and fiscal subsidies. The main drag items are changes in private inventories and imports. In fact, the GDP growth rate of the United States in the first quarter was slightly lower than market expectations, indicating that the market lacks understanding of the slow recovery of production caused by excessive fiscal subsidies in the United States, and is overly optimistic about the improvement of the epidemic. expectations.</p><p><img src=\"http://img.zhitongcaijing.com/images/contentformat/867b3b31bf5a4410ca85884cf283ce1f.jpg\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"588\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><b>2. Household consumption: Subsidies promote commodity consumption, and the epidemic eases and the service industry recovers</b></p><p>In 21Q1, financial subsidies of up to 2,000 USD/person stimulate commodity consumption; The easing of the epidemic has promoted the recovery of service consumption, but it is slightly weaker than the early optimistic expectations of overseas markets. 1) From a quarterly perspective, U.S. personal consumption expenditure in 21Q1 drove GDP by 1.1 percentage points year-on-year, a significant improvement of 3 percentage points from 20Q4. It jumped from the largest drag on GDP in the fourth quarter to the largest contribution, showing that the first quarter also had The stimulating effect of the US $600 subsidy in January and the US $1,400 subsidy issued in March on consumption, as well as the gradual release of service consumption as the epidemic eases. 2) From the perspective of monthly high frequency, PCE in March reached 8.5% year-on-year and 3.7% month-on-month. It strengthened again after falling slightly during the direct subsidy vacuum period in February. Among them, the year-on-year growth rate of durable goods and service consumption increased again, reaching 43.3% and 4.8% respectively in March, while non-durable goods slowed down slightly (4.3%) year-on-year, indicating that the subsidy of US $1,400 in March had an immediate stimulus effect on consumption, and the recovery of service consumption under the relaxation of prevention and control measures. However, judging from the intensity of the recovery of service consumption, it is actually slightly weaker than the overly optimistic expectations of overseas markets in February-March.</p><p><img src=\"http://img.zhitongcaijing.com/images/contentformat/fb6a3cdada866cc05b11f3b44abb7b40.jpg\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"398\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>Commodity consumption and service consumption jointly drive the high increase of personal consumption expenditure. 1) Commodity consumption is mainly driven by durable goods. Commodity consumption in 21Q1 boosted GDP by 3.2 percentage points, an improvement of 1.5 percentage points compared with 20Q4, mainly due to the high growth of durable goods again under the fiscal stimulus in the first quarter. The contribution of durable goods to GDP in 21Q1 improved significantly by 1.3 percentage points compared with the fourth quarter, while the contribution of non-durable goods to GDP only slightly improved by 0.3 percentage points; 2) The improvement of service consumption on GDP is greater than that of durable goods consumption. Although service consumption in 21Q1 still has a negative pull of-1.4% on GDP, it has improved significantly by 1.6 percentage points compared with the previous quarter, and the improvement rate is even greater than that of durable goods consumption, showing that service consumption has improved under the dual factors of fiscal subsidies and epidemic easing. The flexibility is greater.</p><p><img src=\"http://img.zhitongcaijing.com/images/contentformat/e8b1b37f95a3c799e28a194bc63e56e7.jpg\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"399\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><b>3. Investment: Equipment investment has improved significantly, interest rates have suppressed real estate investment, and inventory replenishment has not occurred</b></p><p>The effect of non-residential investment on GDP has been greatly improved, and private inventory has turned into a drag. In 21Q1, domestic private investment drove GDP by 0.8 percentage points year-on-year, a slight improvement of 0.1 percentage points from the fourth quarter.</p><p>1) The improvement in non-residential investment shows that the U.S. production sector's expectations for the economic outlook have improved. The main contributor to the improvement of private investment is non-residential investment (an improvement of 0.6 percentage points), which mainly comes from equipment investment, indicating that manufacturing companies remain optimistic about the prospects for economic recovery.</p><p>2) The year-on-year decline in the contribution of private inventory changes to 21Q1 GDP is a manifestation of the tear between supply and demand in the U.S. economy. Strong demand and slow recovery of production have led to a decline in inventories. This means that the strengthening of commodity prices in Q1 cannot be supported by U.S. industrial production. Supported by strong and active inventory replenishment logic. The main drag on private investment was the change of private inventory (0.4 percentage points).</p><p>3) The year-on-year contribution of residential investment to GDP remained basically stable, while the month-on-month growth rate was suppressed by the overall increase in U.S. interest rates in the previous period. The follow-up is expected to continue to cool down with the medium-term upward process of interest rates. The pull of residential investment on GDP in 21Q1 remained stable. However, with the gradual increase of mortgage interest rates in the past 21 years, the U.S. real estate market has cooled down, and residential construction expenditures and existing home sales have slowed down. It is expected that subsequent residential investment will have an impact on GDP. The pulling effect will gradually decline.</p><p><img src=\"http://img.zhitongcaijing.com/images/contentformat/8831f8bd60fdfc9671df61b6e741faaa.jpg\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"393\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><b>4. Government expenditure and net exports: Subsidies drive the increase of government expenditure, and the widening gap between supply and demand leads to the high increase of imports</b></p><p>The tear between supply and demand in the U.S. economy has caused net exports to deepen the drag on GDP again. Net exports in 21Q1 dragged down GDP by 2 percentage points year-on-year, and the degree of drag was 0.7 percentage points higher than that in 20Q4. 1) Exports dragged down by 1 percentage point, but have improved by 0.2 percentage points from the previous quarter, showing a slight recovery in U.S. industrial production, but it is still dwarfed by the 3.0 percentage point improvement in personal consumption expenditures. What actually reflects the excessive fiscal subsidies in the United States. The widening gap between supply and demand in 21Q1; 2) Imports dragged down GDP by 1.0 percentage points year-on-year in 21Q1, a significant increase of 0.9 percentage points compared with the previous quarter. The direct consequence of the widening gap between supply and demand in the United States is the expansion of import scale.</p><p>Government expenditure in 21Q1 boosted GDP by 0.1 percentage points year-on-year, mainly due to the U.S. government's issuance of direct subsidy checks to residents to the banking system and the cost of purchasing vaccines.</p><p><img src=\"http://img.zhitongcaijing.com/images/contentformat/1e6d4ceb162a00ae93de51b3cf6bb71b.jpg\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"386\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><b>5. The U.S. economic recovery is expected to reach a high point in the second quarter, and pay attention to the follow-up progress of the epidemic</b></p><p>Looking ahead, we believe that the strength of future U.S. economic recovery depends on the vaccination process and the spread of COVID-19 pandemic. Under the assumption that the epidemic situation in the United States continues to ease and the service industry gradually recovers, the second quarter is expected to be the highest point for the recovery of the U.S. economy. However, the tear between supply and demand caused by excessive subsidies will continue until September, and the intensity of the recovery of the U.S. economy during the year may not be as strong as the market expected.</p><p>Personal consumption expenditure: 1) Although commodity consumption in 21Q1 showed extremely strong momentum, we expect that the first quarter was already the high point of commodity consumption, and it will gradually decline as subsidies ebb; 2) Consumption in the service industry will continue to gradually recover as the epidemic eases, but the global epidemic has rebounded since March, especially in European countries and emerging countries. At the same time, the spread of more contagious virus variants in the United States and overseas countries will also affect the subsequent recovery intensity of the service industry.</p><p>Investment: 1) The main driving force for the improvement of non-residential investment in 21Q1 is the expectation of economic improvement. From the current point of view, the global epidemic is the core factor that determines the intensity of economic recovery, and we need to pay attention to the subsequent progress of the epidemic; 2) Residential investment will decline as the real estate market gradually cools down; 3) Changes in private inventories, that is, the intensity of inventory replenishment will depend on whether the current situation of the tearing between supply and demand in the United States can be alleviated. From the current point of view, it may not be until the end of unemployment subsidies in September that there will be a significant bridging trend between the supply and demand ends in the United States. Then drive inventory investment.</p><p>Government expenditure and net exports: 1) As unemployment subsidies continue to be paid in the second and third quarters, government expenditure is expected to continue to make a positive contribution to GDP year-on-year before the fourth quarter, and if the U.S. employment plan or the U.S. household plan can be implemented within the year, it will also boost the level of government spending; In terms of net exports, exports will depend on the progress of the recovery of U.S. industrial production. As mentioned above, it may not be boosted until the fourth quarter. Imports, on the contrary, will fall back to normal as the gap between supply and demand narrows later this year. level.</p><p><img src=\"http://img.zhitongcaijing.com/images/contentformat/32e1b124c2e79173310a2a69f29f1ee7.jpg\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"547\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><b>2. Global macro data: New confirmed cases in the United States decreased</b></p><p><b>1. Epidemic situation: New confirmed cases in the United States decreased</b></p><p>The number of new confirmed cases in the United States dropped this week. The average number of newly diagnosed cases in the United States dropped to more than 53,000 on the 7th day. As of April 29, the total number of confirmed cases in COVID-19 pandemic worldwide exceeded 150 million, the total number of deaths was 3.14 million, and the total number of recovered cases was 120 million. In the four days of this week (April 27-April 30), there were 220,000 and 9,000 new confirmed cases in the United States and the United Kingdom respectively.</p><p>As of April 28, the most COVID-19 vaccine vaccinations per 100 people worldwide were in Israel, reaching 121.1 shots per 100 people, 70.2 shots per 100 people in the United States, and 70.9 shots per 100 people in the United Kingdom. As of April 28, Israel has the highest proportion of fully vaccinated people in the world, reaching 58.7%, while the United States and the United Kingdom have 29.3% and 20.7% respectively.</p><p><img src=\"http://img.zhitongcaijing.com/images/contentformat/887a942234cb8fe459a2f83e1d51371f.jpg\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"591\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><img src=\"http://img.zhitongcaijing.com/images/contentformat/62573bfd15fa133a1b4a5d4e236f878d.jpg\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"397\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><b>2. Demand: Japan's retail sales rebounded sharply year-on-year</b></p><p>Japan's retail sales and wholesale sales both rose sharply year-on-year. Japan's retail sales index in March was 5.3% year-on-year, of which textiles and clothing in retail sales were 15.8% year-on-year, and the wholesale sales index in March was 1.0% year-on-year.</p><p><img src=\"http://img.zhitongcaijing.com/images/contentformat/a115423dbfa92a2b68fd1ddba7b7202c.jpg\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"432\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>South Korea's retail sales continued to grow year-on-year in March, and semi-durable goods consumption increased significantly. South Korea's retail sales in March increased by 3.5 percentage points year-on-year to 13.5%, with semi-durable goods consumption growing the fastest, 35.5% year-on-year; Durable goods were 13.6% year-on-year, and non-durable goods were 6.5% year-on-year.</p><p><img src=\"http://img.zhitongcaijing.com/images/contentformat/660433692ab7c356ac6e92af5532c956.jpg\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"549\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><b>3. Supply and employment: New orders for durable goods in the United States rose year-on-month</b></p><p>U.S. durable goods inventories rose, and the growth rate of new orders rose year-on-month. U.S. durable goods inventories reached US $431.84 billion in March, a month-on-month increase of 1.0% and a year-on-year increase of 1.7%. New orders for durable goods in the United States rose by 0.5% month-on-month in March, a sharp increase of 25% year-on-year.</p><p><img src=\"http://img.zhitongcaijing.com/images/contentformat/00d167c28987b587b0353bdb22cabcb3.jpg\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"397\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>Japan's unemployment rate fell to 2.6% in March. Japan's unemployment rate fell 0.3 percentage points from the previous month to 2.6% in March. South Korea's industrial production index rose year-on-month, and the industry continued to rebound. South Korea's industrial production index rose 5.7% year-on-year and 0.8% month-on-month to 112.6 in March.</p><p><img src=\"http://img.zhitongcaijing.com/images/contentformat/3e518f69ea70eb9423bd2c4c0800a9d4.jpg\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"393\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>U.S. industrial materials production continues to rise. 1) In the week ending April 24, U.S. weekly crude steel production increased by 43.6% year-on-year, and capacity utilization increased slightly by 0.4 percentage points from last week to 78.4%; 2) As of April 23, the operational capacity utilization rate of U.S. refineries increased by 0.4 percentage points to 85.4%.</p><p><img src=\"http://img.zhitongcaijing.com/images/contentformat/08378049f4011957a1ca13a61b5f7ee9.jpg\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"395\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>The number of initial jobless claims in the United States fell slightly during the week, while the number of continuing jobless claims rose slightly. The number of initial jobless claims in the United States reached 553,000 in the week of April 24, a decrease of 13,000 from last week; The number of people who continued to apply for unemployment benefits in the week of April 17 reached 3.66 million, an increase of 9,000 from the previous month.</p><p><img src=\"http://img.zhitongcaijing.com/images/contentformat/50abaebb23322c65845134f36edf2eac.jpg\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"550\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><b>4. Trade: U.S. imports and exports rose sharply year-on-year in March</b></p><p>U.S. imports and exports both rose sharply year-on-year in March. U.S. export growth in March rose sharply by 16.5 percentage points from the previous month to 11.5%, and imports were 20.6% year-on-year. The U.S. merchandise trade balance in March was-$90.59 billion.</p><p><img src=\"http://img.zhitongcaijing.com/images/contentformat/b94fcaf0b73f26e0f7e86a9f8b746b80.jpg\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"549\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><b>5. Inflation and commodities: Oil prices rise slightly</b></p><p>EIA crude oil inventories rose by 9 million barrels in the week of April 28, while U.S. crude oil production fell slightly by 100,000 barrels per day to 10.9 million barrels per day. As of April 29, the weekly average price of WTI crude oil rose to US $63.2/barrel; The weekly average price of Brent oil rose to US $66.6/barrel.</p><p><img src=\"http://img.zhitongcaijing.com/images/contentformat/2ea9504a69c4ccccc0e74ff1a56da96e.jpg\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"396\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><img src=\"http://img.zhitongcaijing.com/images/contentformat/e2a42a869453a51bf63a352119f75e6a.jpg\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"402\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><b>6. Real estate: The U.S. existing home contract sales index rose year-on-year in March</b></p><p>The U.S. S&P/CS home price index rose for eight consecutive months in February. In February, the U.S. S&P/CS home price index rose 11.9% year-on-year to 246.0, rising for eight consecutive months. The U.S. existing home contract sales index in March rose by 23.3% year-on-year and 1.9% month-on-month.</p><p><img src=\"http://img.zhitongcaijing.com/images/contentformat/6ac3751240b8a02c34f4c66d93fb255b.jpg\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"398\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>Japan's new housing starts and construction orders rose sharply in March. Japan's new housing starts in March were 1.5% year-on-year and 18.1% month-on-month. The number of construction orders in March was 12.5% year-on-year and 192.7% month-on-month, the highest increase in nearly a year.</p><p><img src=\"http://img.zhitongcaijing.com/images/contentformat/e961519800be12d5e185f10acff56a58.jpg\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"392\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>U.S. 5-year mortgage rates fell, while 15-year, 30-year mortgage rates rose. In the week ending April 29, the 5-year mortgage rate fell by 0.2 percentage points to 2.6%, while the 15-year and 30-year mortgage rates rose to 2.3% and 3.0% respectively. As of the week of April 23, the U.S. MBA market index fell by 18.2 to 706.6, and the housing market fell slightly.</p><p><img src=\"http://img.zhitongcaijing.com/images/contentformat/2eb2b206b830b79a11aed2265d986bec.jpg\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"395\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><b>7. Monetary policy and exchange rate: the US Dollar Index fell, gold prices were basically stable</b></p><p>The Federal Reserve's interest rate meeting was held this week. Powell's speech was dovish, the US Dollar Index fell, and gold prices were basically stable. On April 28, local time, the Federal Reserve announced a statement on the interest rate meeting. Powell said at the press conference after the meeting that it will still take some time to see substantial progress. Before that, the current scale of asset purchases will be maintained. It is not yet time to discuss Taper. the US Dollar Index continues to decline. As of April 29, the US Dollar Index closed at 90.6140, down 0.7% from last week; The exchange rates of the euro and pound against the US dollar (pound exchange rate data as of the 28th) closed at 1.2129 and 1.3906 respectively, appreciating 0.7% and depreciating 0.2% respectively from last week; As the Bank of Canada took the lead in Taper, the Canadian dollar strengthened, closing at 1.2292, an appreciation of 1.7% from last week. The average weekly gold price in London this week was US $1,774.8 per ounce, which was basically stable from last week, and the year-on-year increase fell by 1.2 pct from last week to 3.6%.</p><p><img src=\"http://img.zhitongcaijing.com/images/contentformat/c2e4e8d549f84a56f7d651806cc3a657.jpg\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"398\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><img src=\"http://img.zhitongcaijing.com/images/contentformat/09b461fbeb60aed3abf2e7ffd691b486.jpg\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"551\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> source：<a href=\"http://www.zhitongcaijing.com/content/detail/466474.html\">智通财经网</a></p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://img.zhitongcaijing.com/image/20210501/20210501134714_46528.png?x-oss-process=image/format,jpg/quality,Q_80/resize,w_250","relate_stocks":{".DJI":"道琼斯"},"source_url":"http://www.zhitongcaijing.com/content/detail/466474.html","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/6ca2dcdccfa2217fb20a0351f4efe814","article_id":"2132567538","content_text":"本文来自“申万宏源宏观”。摘要一、周观点：美国一季度GDP究竟是偏强还是偏弱?21Q1美国GDP同比0.4%，略低于市场预期。美国21Q1  GDP实际同比0.4%，疫情以来首次同比转正，环比1.6%。主要贡献因素为商品消费、服务消费、非住宅投资，显示出疫情改善+财政补贴下美国经济快速复苏。但主要拖累项为私人存货变动及进口，且实际上，美国一季度GDP增速是小幅低于市场预期的，显示市场对美国过度财政补贴导致生产恢复缓慢的认识不足，以及对疫情改善过度乐观的预期。居民消费：补贴推动商品消费，疫情缓和服务业修复。1)21Q1美国个人消费支出拉动GDP同比1.1个百分点，较20Q4大幅改善3个百分点。商品消费主要为耐用品推动，而服务消费对GDP拉动的改善幅度大于耐用品消费;2)月度高频角度，3月PCE同比8.5%，环比3.7%，在2月直接补贴真空期小幅回落后再度走强。显示3月1400美金补贴发放对于消费立竿见影的刺激效果，以及防控措施放松下服务消费的恢复。但从服务消费恢复的强度来看，实际上略弱于2-3月海外市场的过度乐观预期。投资：设备投资改善显著，利率抑制地产投资，补库存并未出现。21Q1国内私人投资拉动GDP同比0.8个百分点，较4季度小幅改善0.1个百分点。1)非住宅投资改善显示美国生产部门对经济前景预期有所改善;2)私人存货变动对21Q1  GDP同比贡献的下降是美国经济供需撕裂的体现，需求旺盛而生产恢复缓慢，从而导致库存下降，这也就意味着Q1大宗商品价格的走强并不能得到美国工业生产强劲、主动补库存逻辑的支持;3)住宅投资对GDP同比贡献基本保持稳定，环比增速则随前期美国利率的整体抬升而受到抑制。后续预计将随着利率的中期上行过程而持续降温。政府支出和净出口：补贴推动政府支出增加，供需缺口拉大导致进口高增。美国经济供需撕裂导致净出口对GDP拖累程度再度加深。21Q1净出口拖累GDP同比2个百分点，拖累程度较上20Q4扩大0.7个百分点。政府支出21Q1对GDP同比拉动0.1个百分点，主要由于美国政府向银行体系发放针对居民的直接补贴支票以及购买疫苗费用。预计美国经济复苏2季度为高点，关注疫情后续进展。我们认为未来美国经济恢复的强度依赖于疫苗接种进程，以及新冠疫情的扩散情况。在美国疫情持续缓和、服务业渐进修复的假设下，预计2季度为美国经济恢复高点，但由于过度补贴导致的供需撕裂情况将持续到9月份，年内美国经济恢复的强度或将不会如市场预期一般强劲。个人消费支出：预计1季度是商品消费高点，服务业消费将继续随着疫情缓和而渐进式恢复，但美国本土及海外国家传染性更强的病毒变种的传播也将影响后续服务业恢复强度;投资：非住宅投资的改善需要关注后续疫情进展。住宅投资将随着地产市场的逐步降温而走低;私人库存变动或要等到9月失业补贴结束之后得以改善。政府支出和净出口：政府支出预计将在4季度前持续对GDP同比形成正贡献。净出口将随着今年后期供需缺口的收窄而回到正常水平。二、全球宏观数据本周高频数据：美国耐用品新订单同环比均上升疫情：美国新增确诊病例下降。需求：日本零售销售同比大幅回升。供给与就业：美国耐用品新订单同环比均上升。贸易：美国3月进出口同比均大幅上升。通胀和大宗商品：油价小幅上行。房地产：美3月成屋签约销售指数上升。货币政策和汇率：美元指数下跌，黄金价格稳定。全球宏观日历：关注美国ISM制造业PMI正文一、周观点：美国一季度GDP究竟是偏强还是偏弱?1.21Q1美国GDP同比0.4%，略低于市场预期美国21Q1GDP实际同比0.4%，疫情以来首次同比转正，环比1.6%。主要贡献因素为商品消费、服务消费、非住宅投资，显示出疫情改善+财政补贴下美国经济相对较快的复苏。主要拖累项为私人存货变动及进口，且实际上，美国一季度GDP增速是小幅低于市场预期的，显示市场对美国过度财政补贴导致生产恢复缓慢的认识不足，以及对疫情改善过度乐观的预期。2.居民消费：补贴推动商品消费，疫情缓和服务业修复21Q1高达2000美金/人的财政补贴拉动商品消费;疫情缓和推动服务消费恢复，但略弱于前期海外市场乐观预期。1)从季度角度看，21Q1美国个人消费支出拉动GDP同比1.1个百分点，较20Q4大幅改善3个百分点，从4季度对GDP最大的拖累项一跃转为最大的贡献项，显示一季度同时具备1月600美金补贴以及3月开始发放的1400美金补贴对消费的刺激效果，以及疫情缓和下服务消费的渐次释放。2)而从月度高频角度，3月PCE同比达到8.5%，环比3.7%，在2月直接补贴真空期小幅回落后再度走强。其中，耐用品、服务消费同比增速再度提升，3月分别达到43.3%和4.8%，而非耐用品同比略有放缓(4.3%)，显示3月1400美金补贴发放对于消费立竿见影的刺激效果，以及防控措施放松下服务消费的恢复。但从服务消费恢复的强度来看，实际上略弱于2-3月海外市场的过度乐观预期。商品消费、服务消费共同驱动个人消费支出高增。1)商品消费主要为耐用品推动。21Q1商品消费对GDP拉动3.2个百分点，较20Q4改善1.5个百分点，主要归功于耐用品在一季度财政刺激下再度高增，21Q1耐用品对GDP贡献度较4季度大幅改善1.3个百分点，而非耐用品对GDP贡献度仅小幅改善0.3个百分点;2)服务消费对GDP拉动效果的改善幅度大于耐用品消费。21Q1服务消费对GDP虽然仍为-1.4%的负拉动，但已较上季度大幅改善1.6个百分点，改善幅度更甚于耐用品消费，显示出服务消费在财政补贴+疫情缓和双重因素下改善的弹性更大。3.投资：设备投资改善显著，利率抑制地产投资，补库存并未出现非住宅投资对GDP拉动效果大幅改善，私人存货转为拖累。21Q1国内私人投资拉动GDP同比0.8个百分点，较4季度小幅改善0.1个百分点。1)非住宅投资改善显示美国生产部门对经济前景预期有所改善。私人投资改善的主要贡献因素为非住宅投资(改善0.6个百分点)，其中主要来自于设备投资，显示制造业企业对经济恢复前景保持乐观。2)私人存货变动对21Q1  GDP同比贡献的下降是美国经济供需撕裂的体现，需求旺盛而生产恢复缓慢，从而导致库存下降，这也就意味着Q1大宗商品价格的走强并不能得到美国工业生产强劲、主动补库存逻辑的支持。拖累私人投资的主要因素为私人存货变动(拖累0.4个百分点)。3)住宅投资对GDP同比贡献基本保持稳定，环比增速则随前期美国利率的整体抬升而受到抑制。后续预计将随着利率的中期上行过程而持续降温。21Q1住宅投资对GDP的拉动保持稳定，但随着21年以来抵押贷款利率的逐步上行，美国房地产市场已经有所降温，住宅营建支出、成屋销售已经有所放缓，预计后续住宅投资对GDP的拉动效果将逐步下降。4.政府支出和净出口：补贴推动政府支出增加，供需缺口拉大导致进口高增美国经济供需撕裂导致净出口对GDP拖累程度再度加深。21Q1净出口拖累GDP同比2个百分点，拖累程度较上20Q4扩大0.7个百分点。1)出口拖累1个百分点，但已较上个季度改善0.2个百分点，显示美国工业生产的小幅恢复，但相比个人消费支出3.0个百分点的改善幅度仍然相形见绌，实际体现的是美国过度财政补贴下21Q1供需缺口的拉大;2)而进口在21Q1拖累GDP同比1.0个百分点，拖累程度较上季度大幅扩大0.9个百分点，美国供需缺口拉大的直接后果便是进口规模的扩大。政府支出21Q1对GDP同比拉动0.1个百分点，主要由于美国政府向银行体系发放针对居民的直接补贴支票以及购买疫苗费用。5.预计美国经济复苏2季度为高点，关注疫情后续进展展望未来，我们认为未来美国经济恢复的强度依赖于疫苗接种进程，以及新冠疫情的扩散情况。在美国疫情持续缓和、服务业渐进修复的假设下，预计2季度为美国经济恢复高点，但由于过度补贴导致的供需撕裂情况将持续到9月份，年内美国经济恢复的强度或将不会如市场预期一般强劲。个人消费支出：1)虽然21Q1商品消费显示出极为强劲的势头，但我们预计1季度已经是商品消费高点，后续将随着补贴退潮而逐步回落;2)服务业消费将继续随着疫情缓和而渐进式恢复，但3月以来全球疫情有所反弹，特别是在欧洲国家以及新兴国家，同时美国本土及海外国家传染性更强的病毒变种的传播也将影响后续服务业恢复强度。投资：1)21Q1非住宅投资的改善主要驱动力为经济向好预期，而从当前时点来看，全球疫情是决定经济恢复强度的核心因素，需要关注后续疫情进展;2)住宅投资将随着地产市场的逐步降温而走低;3)私人库存变动，即补库存的力度将依赖于美国供需撕裂的现状是否能够缓和，从当前来看，或要等到9月失业补贴结束之后，美国供需两端才能出现显著的弥合趋势，进而带动库存投资。政府支出和净出口：1)随着失业补贴在2、3季度的持续发放，政府支出预计将在4季度前持续对GDP同比形成正贡献，而如果美国就业计划或美国家庭计划能够在年内落地，也将提振政府支出水平;净出口方面，出口将依赖于美国工业生产恢复的进度，如上文所说，或要到4季度才能得到提振，进口则恰恰相反，将随着今年后期供需缺口的收窄而回落到正常水平。二、全球宏观数据：美国新增确诊病例下降1.疫情：美国新增确诊病例下降本周美国新增确诊病例下降。美国新增确诊7日平均下降至5.3万人以上。截止4月29日，全球新冠疫情累计确诊超过1.5亿，累计死亡病例314万人，累计康复病例1.2亿人。本周四天(4月27日-4月30日)美国、英国分别新增确诊病例22万人和0.9万人。截止4月28日，全球范围内平均每百人接种新冠疫苗最多的是以色列，达每百人121.1针，美国每百人70.2针，英国每百人70.9针。截止4月28日，全球范围内完全接种疫苗的人占人口比例最高的是以色列，达58.7%，美国、英国分别为29.3%、20.7%。2.需求：日本零售销售同比大幅回升日本零售销售和批发销售同比均大幅上行。日本3月零售销售指数同比5.3%，其中零售中纺织服装同比15.8%，3月批发销售指数同比1.0%。韩国3月零售销售同比持续增长，半耐用品消费大幅增长。韩国3月零售销售同比较上月上升3.5个百分点至13.5%，其中半耐用品消费增速最快，同比35.5%;耐用品同比13.6%，非耐用品同比6.5%。3.供给与就业：美国耐用品新订单同环比均上升美国耐用品库存上升，新订单增速同环比均上升。3月美国耐用品库存达4318.4亿美元，环比上升1.0%，同比增长1.7%。美国3月耐用品新订单环比上升0.5%，同比大幅上升25%。日本3月失业率下降至2.6%。3月日本失业率较上月下降0.3个百分点至2.6%。韩国工业生产指数同环比均上升，工业持续回升。韩国3月工业生产指数同比上升5.7%，环比上升0.8%至112.6。美国工业材料生产持续上升。1)截止4月24日当周，美国周度粗钢产量同比上升43.6%，产能利用率较上周小幅上升0.4个百分点至78.4%;2)截止4月23日，美国炼油厂可运营能力利用率上升0.4个百分点至85.4%。美国当周初请失业金人数小幅下降，持续申领失业金人数小幅上升。4月24日当周美国初请失业金人数达55.3万人，环比上周下降1.3万人;4月17日当周持续申领失业金人数达366万人，环比上升0.9万人。4.贸易：美国3月进出口同比均大幅上升美国3月进出口同比均大幅上升。美国3月出口增速较上月大幅上升16.5个百分点至11.5%，进口同比20.6%。美国3月份商品贸易差额为-905.9亿美元。5.通胀和大宗商品：油价小幅上行4月28日当周EIA原油库存上升900万桶，美国原油产量小幅下降10万桶/日至1090万桶/日。截止4月29日，WTI原油周均价上升至63.2美元/桶;布油周均价上升至66.6美元/桶。6.房地产：美国3月成屋签约销售指数同比上升美国2月标普/CS房价指数连续8个月上涨。2月美国标普/CS房价指数同比上升11.9%至246.0，连续8个月上涨。美国3月成屋签约销售指数同比大幅23.3%，环比1.9%。日本3月新屋开工、营建订单大幅上行。日本3月新屋开工同比1.5%，环比18.1%，3月营建订单数同比12.5%，环比192.7%，涨幅达到近一年最高。美国5年期抵押贷款利率下降，15年期、30年期抵押贷款利率上升。截止4月29日当周，5年期抵押贷款利率下降0.2个百分点至2.6%，15年期、30年期抵押贷款利率分别上升至2.3%和3.0%。截止4月23日当周，美国MBA市场指数下降18.2至706.6，房市热度小幅回落。7.货币政策和汇率：美元指数下跌，黄金价格基本稳定本周美联储议息会议召开，鲍威尔发言偏鸽，美元指数下跌，黄金价格基本稳定。当地时间4月28日，美联储公布议息会议声明，鲍威尔在会后新闻发布会上表示看到实质性进展仍需一些时间，在此之前会维持当前的资产购买规模，现在还未到讨论Taper的时间，美元指数持续下行。截至4月29日，美元指数报收90.6140，较上周下行0.7%;欧元、英镑兑美元汇率(英镑汇率数据截至28日)分别报收1.2129、1.3906，分别较上周升值0.7%、贬值0.2%;由于加拿大央行率先Taper，加元走强，报收1.2292，较上周升值1.7%。本周伦敦金周均价1774.8美元/盎司，较上周基本稳定，同比涨幅较上周下行1.2pct至3.6%。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{".DJI":0.9,"ZNmain":0.9,"ZBmain":0.9,"ZTmain":0.9,"ZFmain":0.9,"UBmain":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1584,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":358271966,"gmtCreate":1616712224855,"gmtModify":1704797666748,"author":{"id":"3565141264334143","authorId":"3565141264334143","name":"猫咪b","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e814c71340fd63db37fbcdc00197f975","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3565141264334143","idStr":"3565141264334143"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Keep 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