KFFun personal page - To The Moon

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2022-11-13

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2022-11-12

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2022-11-11

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2022-11-09

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2022-11-06

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2022-10-31

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2022-10-27

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data-views=\"1\"></v-v>","text":"$Netflix(NFLX)$","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9983808141","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":475,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0}],"hots":[{"id":128708660,"gmtCreate":1624530107750,"gmtModify":1703839485160,"author":{"id":"3565161371430593","authorId":"3565161371430593","name":"KFFun","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":3,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3565161371430593","authorIdStr":"3565161371430593"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Like and comment pls","listText":"Like and comment pls","text":"Like and comment pls","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":6,"commentSize":3,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/128708660","repostId":"1187819280","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":495,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":165577506,"gmtCreate":1624153847405,"gmtModify":1703829510516,"author":{"id":"3565161371430593","authorId":"3565161371430593","name":"KFFun","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":3,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3565161371430593","authorIdStr":"3565161371430593"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Comment and like pls","listText":"Comment and like pls","text":"Comment and like pls","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":4,"commentSize":4,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/165577506","repostId":"1199331995","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":330,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[{"author":{"id":"3560490484138250","authorId":"3560490484138250","name":"ChenJing4826","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/dd63734e2cea6ae5adc5684378244fb9","crmLevel":9,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"idStr":"3560490484138250","authorIdStr":"3560490484138250"},"content":"ComMent back thanks","text":"ComMent back thanks","html":"ComMent back thanks"}],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":160643279,"gmtCreate":1623797674491,"gmtModify":1703819490839,"author":{"id":"3565161371430593","authorId":"3565161371430593","name":"KFFun","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":3,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3565161371430593","authorIdStr":"3565161371430593"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Comment and like pls","listText":"Comment and like pls","text":"Comment and like pls","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":8,"commentSize":2,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/160643279","repostId":"2143680537","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":205,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":114727916,"gmtCreate":1623107487535,"gmtModify":1704196028979,"author":{"id":"3565161371430593","authorId":"3565161371430593","name":"KFFun","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":3,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3565161371430593","authorIdStr":"3565161371430593"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Comment and like pls","listText":"Comment and like pls","text":"Comment and like pls","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":5,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/114727916","repostId":"1108033863","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":369,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":198132638,"gmtCreate":1620945421924,"gmtModify":1704350757686,"author":{"id":"3565161371430593","authorId":"3565161371430593","name":"KFFun","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":3,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3565161371430593","authorIdStr":"3565161371430593"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Comment and like","listText":"Comment and like","text":"Comment and like","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":4,"commentSize":4,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/198132638","repostId":"1116555518","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":244,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[{"author":{"id":"3581684008797987","authorId":"3581684008797987","name":"LingEe","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f1d3bfd4deceaf85e45a87bf4afd441c","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"idStr":"3581684008797987","authorIdStr":"3581684008797987"},"content":"Okie. please response back too","text":"Okie. please response back too","html":"Okie. please response back too"}],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9933462371,"gmtCreate":1662338119894,"gmtModify":1676537038624,"author":{"id":"3565161371430593","authorId":"3565161371430593","name":"KFFun","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":3,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3565161371430593","authorIdStr":"3565161371430593"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Ok","listText":"Ok","text":"Ok","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":5,"commentSize":3,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9933462371","repostId":"2265749449","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"2265749449","kind":"highlight","pubTimestamp":1662332817,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/2265749449?lang=&edition=full_marsco","pubTime":"2022-09-05 07:06","market":"us","language":"en","title":"GameStop, Apple, Kroger, NIO, and Other Stocks for Investors to Watch This Week","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2265749449","media":"Barron's","summary":"U.S. stock and bond markets will be closed on Monday for Labor Day. It's a quiet week on the earning","content":"<html><head></head><body><p>U.S. stock and bond markets will be closed on Monday for Labor Day. It&#39;s a quiet week on the earnings calendar once investors return from the long weekend, but a few major economic-data releases should grab plenty of attention.</p><p>Results this week will come from GameStop and NIO on Wednesday, DocuSign and Zscaler on Thursday, and Kroger on Friday. Apple will also host a product launch event on Wednesday, when it is expected to unveil a new lineup of iPhones and Apple Watches.</p><p>Economic data releases next week include the Institute for Supply Management&#39;s Services Purchasing Managers&#39; Index for August on Tuesday. The consensus estimate is for the index to decline by about three points, to 54.</p><p>Other data for investors and economists to watch next week will be the Federal Reserve&#39;s sixth beige book of the year on Wednesday and the Department of Labor&#39;s initial jobless claims for the latest week on Thursday.</p><p>The European Central Bank also announces a monetary-policy decision on Thursday. Futures markets are pricing in the greatest odds of a 75-basis-point hike, which would bring ECB&#39;s benchmark interest-rate target to 0.75%.</p><p><b>Monday 9/5</b></p><p>Equity and fixed-income markets are closed in observance of Labor Day.</p><p><b>Tuesday 9/6</b></p><p>The Institute for Supply Management releases its Services Purchasing Managers&#39; Index for August. Consensus estimate is for a 54 reading, about three points lower than in July. The index is well off its record high of 68.4 from November, but still above the expansionary level of 50.</p><p><b>Wednesday 9/7</b></p><p>Appleholds a launch event, titled &#34;Far Out,&#34; at its headquarters in Cupertino, Calif. The company is expected to unveil four new iPhone 14 models and three new Apple Watches, along with other products.</p><p>GameStop and NIO report quarterly results.</p><p>The Federal Reserve releases the beige book for the sixth of eight times this year. The report summarizes current economic conditions with anecdotal data collected by the 12 regional Federal Reserve banks.</p><p>The Mortgage Bankers Association releases its mortgage application survey for the week ending on Sept. 2. Mortgage applications have dropped for three consecutive weeks and are at a multidecade low amid record-high home prices and surging mortgage rates.</p><p><b>Thursday 9/8</b></p><p>DocuSign and Zscaler hold conference calls to discuss quarterly earnings.</p><p>Moderna hosts a research and development day, with presentations from its executive leadership, including CEO Stéphane Bancel.</p><p>The European Central Bank announces its monetary-policy decision. Traders are pricing in a 60% chance of a jumbo-size 75-basis-point hike, which would bring ECB&#39;s deposit facility rate to 0.75%. At its last meeting, in July, the central bank lifted its key interest rate by half a percentage point, from negative 0.5% to zero. It has been just over a decade since the deposit facility rate was last above zero.</p><p>The Department of Labor reports initial jobless claims for the week ending on Sept. 3. Claims averaged 241,500 in August, and have risen steadily this year from historically low levels.</p><p><b>Friday 9/9</b></p><p>Kroger reports second-quarter fiscal-2023 results.</p><p>Tapestry, the parent company of fashion brands Coach and Kate Spade, holds an investor day at its headquarters in New York. The company will discuss its long-term strategic initiatives and update its financial outlook.</p><p>The Federal Reserve releases the Financial Accounts of the United States for the second quarter. The report gives a snapshot of the nation&#39;s household net worth and debt. In the first quarter, household net worth fell by $544 billion, to $149.3 trillion. It was the first decline since the first quarter of 2020. With the S&amp;P 500 index plunging more than 16% in the second quarter, it&#39;s very likely that the report will show another decrease.</p></body></html>","source":"lsy1610680873436","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>GameStop, Apple, Kroger, NIO, and Other Stocks for Investors to Watch This Week</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nGameStop, Apple, Kroger, NIO, and Other Stocks for Investors to Watch This Week\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2022-09-05 07:06 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://www.barrons.com/articles/gamestop-apple-kroger-nio-and-other-stocks-for-investors-to-watch-this-week-51662318000?mod=hp_LATEST><strong>Barron's</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>U.S. stock and bond markets will be closed on Monday for Labor Day. It's a quiet week on the earnings calendar once investors return from the long weekend, but a few major economic-data releases ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://www.barrons.com/articles/gamestop-apple-kroger-nio-and-other-stocks-for-investors-to-watch-this-week-51662318000?mod=hp_LATEST\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"GME":"游戏驿站","NIO":"蔚来","KR":"克罗格",".DJI":"道琼斯","DOCU":"Docusign","AAPL":"苹果",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite","ZS":"Zscaler Inc.",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index"},"source_url":"https://www.barrons.com/articles/gamestop-apple-kroger-nio-and-other-stocks-for-investors-to-watch-this-week-51662318000?mod=hp_LATEST","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2265749449","content_text":"U.S. stock and bond markets will be closed on Monday for Labor Day. It's a quiet week on the earnings calendar once investors return from the long weekend, but a few major economic-data releases should grab plenty of attention.Results this week will come from GameStop and NIO on Wednesday, DocuSign and Zscaler on Thursday, and Kroger on Friday. Apple will also host a product launch event on Wednesday, when it is expected to unveil a new lineup of iPhones and Apple Watches.Economic data releases next week include the Institute for Supply Management's Services Purchasing Managers' Index for August on Tuesday. The consensus estimate is for the index to decline by about three points, to 54.Other data for investors and economists to watch next week will be the Federal Reserve's sixth beige book of the year on Wednesday and the Department of Labor's initial jobless claims for the latest week on Thursday.The European Central Bank also announces a monetary-policy decision on Thursday. Futures markets are pricing in the greatest odds of a 75-basis-point hike, which would bring ECB's benchmark interest-rate target to 0.75%.Monday 9/5Equity and fixed-income markets are closed in observance of Labor Day.Tuesday 9/6The Institute for Supply Management releases its Services Purchasing Managers' Index for August. Consensus estimate is for a 54 reading, about three points lower than in July. The index is well off its record high of 68.4 from November, but still above the expansionary level of 50.Wednesday 9/7Appleholds a launch event, titled \"Far Out,\" at its headquarters in Cupertino, Calif. The company is expected to unveil four new iPhone 14 models and three new Apple Watches, along with other products.GameStop and NIO report quarterly results.The Federal Reserve releases the beige book for the sixth of eight times this year. The report summarizes current economic conditions with anecdotal data collected by the 12 regional Federal Reserve banks.The Mortgage Bankers Association releases its mortgage application survey for the week ending on Sept. 2. Mortgage applications have dropped for three consecutive weeks and are at a multidecade low amid record-high home prices and surging mortgage rates.Thursday 9/8DocuSign and Zscaler hold conference calls to discuss quarterly earnings.Moderna hosts a research and development day, with presentations from its executive leadership, including CEO Stéphane Bancel.The European Central Bank announces its monetary-policy decision. Traders are pricing in a 60% chance of a jumbo-size 75-basis-point hike, which would bring ECB's deposit facility rate to 0.75%. At its last meeting, in July, the central bank lifted its key interest rate by half a percentage point, from negative 0.5% to zero. It has been just over a decade since the deposit facility rate was last above zero.The Department of Labor reports initial jobless claims for the week ending on Sept. 3. Claims averaged 241,500 in August, and have risen steadily this year from historically low levels.Friday 9/9Kroger reports second-quarter fiscal-2023 results.Tapestry, the parent company of fashion brands Coach and Kate Spade, holds an investor day at its headquarters in New York. The company will discuss its long-term strategic initiatives and update its financial outlook.The Federal Reserve releases the Financial Accounts of the United States for the second quarter. The report gives a snapshot of the nation's household net worth and debt. In the first quarter, household net worth fell by $544 billion, to $149.3 trillion. It was the first decline since the first quarter of 2020. With the S&P 500 index plunging more than 16% in the second quarter, it's very likely that the report will show another decrease.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":421,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9087103916,"gmtCreate":1650966191555,"gmtModify":1676534824305,"author":{"id":"3565161371430593","authorId":"3565161371430593","name":"KFFun","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":3,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3565161371430593","authorIdStr":"3565161371430593"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Ok","listText":"Ok","text":"Ok","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":5,"commentSize":3,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9087103916","repostId":"2230462101","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"2230462101","kind":"highlight","pubTimestamp":1650958471,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/2230462101?lang=&edition=full_marsco","pubTime":"2022-04-26 15:34","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Why Bear Markets Can Help You Create Life-Changing Wealth","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2230462101","media":"Motley Fool","summary":"There's a good chance a bear market helps you more than it hurts you.","content":"<html><head></head><body><p><b>KEY POINTS</b></p><ul><li>Almost everyone loses in the short-term during a bear market.</li><li>But if you are patient enough to invest in the years following a bear market, you could benefit from buying stocks on sale.</li><li>Unemployment is low and real wages are rising for the lower class.</li></ul><p>Bear markets are periods of time when the stock market is down 20% or more from its all-time high. The <b>Nasdaq Composite</b> was briefly in a bear market earlier this year, while the <b>S&amp;P 500</b> entered a correction, which is a drawdown of 10% or more from the high. But the Nasdaq Composite and the S&amp;P 500 were both in a bear market in spring 2020, fall 2018, and, of course, during the 2008 financial crisis.</p><p>Bear markets can be stressful and nerve-racking. But over time, there&#39;s a very good chance that you could benefit from a bear market. Here&#39;s why.</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/78976243dc56a69873e740586860688a\" tg-width=\"2000\" tg-height=\"1333\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/><span>IMAGE SOURCE: GETTY IMAGES.</span></p><p><b>What does a bear market really mean?</b></p><p>Bear markets simply mean that equity values are plunging, so they only really hurt people with substantial assets. It&#39;s a simple concept -- so simple, in fact, that we often forget that bear markets impact wealthy people a lot more than the middle class or young investors. The stat that may really shock you is that the wealthiest 10% of Americans own -- wait for it -- 89% of the U.S. stock market.</p><p>The American middle class has most of their net worth in their homes. And if a middle-class family doesn&#39;t plan on moving anytime soon, then it&#39;s O.K. if the property value slips -- especially after the surge in home prices we&#39;ve seen over the last two years.</p><p>As a gross generalization, a bear market is going to negatively impact retirees, net spenders, and anyone in the asset distribution phase. However, a bear market could help first-time homebuyers, those looking to make big purchases (such as a new car), anyone that is a net saver, and anyone that is in the asset accumulation phase of their life.</p><p><b>But what about the real economy?</b></p><p>Granted, bear markets can also come during times of widespread economic hardship, such as rising unemployment. But according to the March 2022 Bureau of Labor Statistics report, the U.S. unemployment rate is currently 3.6%, which is tied with 2019 for the lowest level since 1969.</p><p>What&#39;s more, U.S. workers in the bottom 30% of income earners have seen their real wages rise, while those in the top 70% have seen rises in nominal wages but negative real wage changes due to inflation.</p><p>With income on the rise and unemployment near record lows, it seems as though the lower and middle class stand to benefit the most from a bear market.</p><p><b>Nerves of steel</b></p><p>It&#39;s no secret that bear markets have historically been some of the best times to buy assets. The Dot-com bubble in the early 2000s wiped trillions of dollars in equity value off the market. Those that could buy and hold stocks like <b>Amazon</b>,<b>Microsoft</b>, or <b>Google</b> after the crash would go on to unlock some of the best returns in stock market history. The same thing goes for the 2008 financial crisis.</p><p>Everyone knows in hindsight that stocks like Amazon were great buys. But what you may not know is that in November 2001 Amazon stock was, at its worst, down 93% from its all-time.</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2018f0b296637c68e2023c92e3fe6aed\" tg-width=\"720\" tg-height=\"465\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/><span>AMZN DATA BY YCHARTS</span></p><p>Imagine a stock in your portfolio going down 93% and then becoming one of the most valuable companies in the world 20 years later. It&#39;s a level of volatility that most investors simply can&#39;t handle. And that&#39;s why buying and holding stocks over the long-term is an incredible strategy, but also one of the hardest to execute.</p><p><b>Years of benefits</b></p><p>The old saying is that no one has extra dry powder to buy during a bear market. And in the short-term, that&#39;s generally true. But instead of fixating on who was lucky enough to have spare cash to buy great stocks during the absolute bottom of a bear market, it&#39;s more helpful to ask who was able to buy stocks for the next five or 10 years after a bear market.</p><p>If we think back to the 2008 financial crisis, for example, the biggest beneficiaries were folks without a lot of savings who had yet to reach their highest income-earning years. Even better positioned were those who didn&#39;t own homes or have mortgages who could benefit from the collapse in housing prices. This cohort would be anyone who is between the ages of roughly 40 and 55 today. In 2008, there were young adults maybe in their low- to mid-30s. And for the next 13 years, they got to experience one of the greatest bull markets in history.</p><p>Now you may be thinking that the age group of adults that haven&#39;t yet reached their peak earning years, which is age 45 to 54, is a small number and not representative of the U.S. population. It may surprise you to learn that 109.8 million Americans are between the ages of 20 and 44, which is exactly one-third of the total population. But that&#39;s a misleading statistic, because it factors in kids. Of Americans aged 20 or older, 44.2% are between the ages of 20 and 44 -- which is surprising considering the Baby Boomer generation is above that age group.</p><p>However, many Americans above age 44 either don&#39;t own homes or don&#39;t have significant investments in the stock market. This is all to say that, according to the data, most Americans probably stand to benefit from a stock market sell-off.</p><p><b>Staying cautiously optimistic</b></p><p>Navigating a bear market is arguably one of the single hardest things to do as an investor. But it is also one of the most rewarding. The catch is that you must be invested in quality companies with solid fundamentals. All success stories have an element of luck to them. For every Amazon, Microsoft, or Google, there are hundreds of failed companies.</p><p>One of the simplest ways to outlast a bear market is to stick with industry-leading companies that have been through one, two, or maybe even several bear markets in the past. There are several companies out there right now that are down 30% or more from their highs that have done just that and could be worth a look.</p></body></html>","source":"fool_stock","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Why Bear Markets Can Help You Create Life-Changing Wealth</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nWhy Bear Markets Can Help You Create Life-Changing Wealth\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2022-04-26 15:34 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://www.fool.com/investing/2022/04/25/why-bear-markets-can-help-you-create-life-changing/><strong>Motley Fool</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>KEY POINTSAlmost everyone loses in the short-term during a bear market.But if you are patient enough to invest in the years following a bear market, you could benefit from buying stocks on sale....</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://www.fool.com/investing/2022/04/25/why-bear-markets-can-help-you-create-life-changing/\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"BK4504":"桥水持仓","BK4581":"高盛持仓","BK4548":"巴美列捷福持仓","BK4514":"搜索引擎","BK4528":"SaaS概念","BK4516":"特朗普概念","BK4554":"元宇宙及AR概念","GOOG":"谷歌","BK4532":"文艺复兴科技持仓","BK4553":"喜马拉雅资本持仓","BK4507":"流媒体概念","BK4567":"ESG概念","BK4534":"瑞士信贷持仓","BK4576":"AR","BK4533":"AQR资本管理(全球第二大对冲基金)","MSFT":"微软","BK4566":"资本集团","BK4525":"远程办公概念","BK4535":"淡马锡持仓","AMZN":"亚马逊","BK4524":"宅经济概念",".DJI":"道琼斯","BK4577":"网络游戏",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite","BK4527":"明星科技股","BK4559":"巴菲特持仓","BK4538":"云计算","BK4579":"人工智能","BK4550":"红杉资本持仓",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index","BK4503":"景林资产持仓","BK4551":"寇图资本持仓","BK4561":"索罗斯持仓"},"source_url":"https://www.fool.com/investing/2022/04/25/why-bear-markets-can-help-you-create-life-changing/","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2230462101","content_text":"KEY POINTSAlmost everyone loses in the short-term during a bear market.But if you are patient enough to invest in the years following a bear market, you could benefit from buying stocks on sale.Unemployment is low and real wages are rising for the lower class.Bear markets are periods of time when the stock market is down 20% or more from its all-time high. The Nasdaq Composite was briefly in a bear market earlier this year, while the S&P 500 entered a correction, which is a drawdown of 10% or more from the high. But the Nasdaq Composite and the S&P 500 were both in a bear market in spring 2020, fall 2018, and, of course, during the 2008 financial crisis.Bear markets can be stressful and nerve-racking. But over time, there's a very good chance that you could benefit from a bear market. Here's why.IMAGE SOURCE: GETTY IMAGES.What does a bear market really mean?Bear markets simply mean that equity values are plunging, so they only really hurt people with substantial assets. It's a simple concept -- so simple, in fact, that we often forget that bear markets impact wealthy people a lot more than the middle class or young investors. The stat that may really shock you is that the wealthiest 10% of Americans own -- wait for it -- 89% of the U.S. stock market.The American middle class has most of their net worth in their homes. And if a middle-class family doesn't plan on moving anytime soon, then it's O.K. if the property value slips -- especially after the surge in home prices we've seen over the last two years.As a gross generalization, a bear market is going to negatively impact retirees, net spenders, and anyone in the asset distribution phase. However, a bear market could help first-time homebuyers, those looking to make big purchases (such as a new car), anyone that is a net saver, and anyone that is in the asset accumulation phase of their life.But what about the real economy?Granted, bear markets can also come during times of widespread economic hardship, such as rising unemployment. But according to the March 2022 Bureau of Labor Statistics report, the U.S. unemployment rate is currently 3.6%, which is tied with 2019 for the lowest level since 1969.What's more, U.S. workers in the bottom 30% of income earners have seen their real wages rise, while those in the top 70% have seen rises in nominal wages but negative real wage changes due to inflation.With income on the rise and unemployment near record lows, it seems as though the lower and middle class stand to benefit the most from a bear market.Nerves of steelIt's no secret that bear markets have historically been some of the best times to buy assets. The Dot-com bubble in the early 2000s wiped trillions of dollars in equity value off the market. Those that could buy and hold stocks like Amazon,Microsoft, or Google after the crash would go on to unlock some of the best returns in stock market history. The same thing goes for the 2008 financial crisis.Everyone knows in hindsight that stocks like Amazon were great buys. But what you may not know is that in November 2001 Amazon stock was, at its worst, down 93% from its all-time.AMZN DATA BY YCHARTSImagine a stock in your portfolio going down 93% and then becoming one of the most valuable companies in the world 20 years later. It's a level of volatility that most investors simply can't handle. And that's why buying and holding stocks over the long-term is an incredible strategy, but also one of the hardest to execute.Years of benefitsThe old saying is that no one has extra dry powder to buy during a bear market. And in the short-term, that's generally true. But instead of fixating on who was lucky enough to have spare cash to buy great stocks during the absolute bottom of a bear market, it's more helpful to ask who was able to buy stocks for the next five or 10 years after a bear market.If we think back to the 2008 financial crisis, for example, the biggest beneficiaries were folks without a lot of savings who had yet to reach their highest income-earning years. Even better positioned were those who didn't own homes or have mortgages who could benefit from the collapse in housing prices. This cohort would be anyone who is between the ages of roughly 40 and 55 today. In 2008, there were young adults maybe in their low- to mid-30s. And for the next 13 years, they got to experience one of the greatest bull markets in history.Now you may be thinking that the age group of adults that haven't yet reached their peak earning years, which is age 45 to 54, is a small number and not representative of the U.S. population. It may surprise you to learn that 109.8 million Americans are between the ages of 20 and 44, which is exactly one-third of the total population. But that's a misleading statistic, because it factors in kids. Of Americans aged 20 or older, 44.2% are between the ages of 20 and 44 -- which is surprising considering the Baby Boomer generation is above that age group.However, many Americans above age 44 either don't own homes or don't have significant investments in the stock market. This is all to say that, according to the data, most Americans probably stand to benefit from a stock market sell-off.Staying cautiously optimisticNavigating a bear market is arguably one of the single hardest things to do as an investor. But it is also one of the most rewarding. The catch is that you must be invested in quality companies with solid fundamentals. All success stories have an element of luck to them. For every Amazon, Microsoft, or Google, there are hundreds of failed companies.One of the simplest ways to outlast a bear market is to stick with industry-leading companies that have been through one, two, or maybe even several bear markets in the past. There are several companies out there right now that are down 30% or more from their highs that have done just that and could be worth a look.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":373,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9019431167,"gmtCreate":1648620187858,"gmtModify":1676534366456,"author":{"id":"3565161371430593","authorId":"3565161371430593","name":"KFFun","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":3,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3565161371430593","authorIdStr":"3565161371430593"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Ok","listText":"Ok","text":"Ok","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":7,"commentSize":2,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9019431167","repostId":"1122910394","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":262,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9010889774,"gmtCreate":1648339072635,"gmtModify":1676534328127,"author":{"id":"3565161371430593","authorId":"3565161371430593","name":"KFFun","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":3,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3565161371430593","authorIdStr":"3565161371430593"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Ok","listText":"Ok","text":"Ok","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":7,"commentSize":2,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9010889774","repostId":"1196027616","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1196027616","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1648255536,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1196027616?lang=&edition=full_marsco","pubTime":"2022-03-26 08:45","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Stock-Market Investors Should Watch the \"Best Leading Indicator of Trouble Ahead\"","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1196027616","media":"MarketWatch","summary":"Investors have been watching the U.S. Treasury yield curve for inversions, a reliable predictor of p","content":"<html><head></head><body><p>Investors have been watching the U.S. Treasury yield curve for inversions, a reliable predictor of past economic downturns.</p><p>They don’t always agree on which part of the curve is best to watch though.</p><p>“Yield curve inversion, and flatting, has been at the forefront for everyone,” said Pete Duffy, chief investment officer at Penn Capital Management Company, in Philadelphia, by phone.</p><p>“That’s because the Fed is so active and rates suddenly have gone up so quickly.”</p><p>An inversion of the yield curve happens when rates on longer bonds fall below those of shorter-term debt, a sign that investors think economic woes could lie ahead. Fears of an economic slowdown have been mounting as the Federal Reserve starts to tighten financial conditions while Russia’s Ukraine invasion threatens to keep key drivers of U.S. inflation high.</p><p>Lately, the attention has been on the 10-year Treasury yield TMUBMUSD10Y, 2.478% and shorter 2-year yield, where the spread fell to 13 basis points on Tuesday, up from a high of about 130 basis points five months ago.</p><p>Read: The yield curve is speeding toward inversion — here’s what investors need to know</p><p>But that’s not the only plot on the Treasury yield curve investors closely watch. The Treasury Department sells securities that mature in a range from a few days to 30 years, providing a lot of plots on the curve to follow.</p><p>“The focus has been on the 10s and 2s,” said Mark Heppenstall, chief investment officer at Penn Mutual Asset Management, in Horsham, Penn, a northern suburb of Philadelphia.</p><p>“I will hold out until the 10s to 3-month bills inverts before I turn too negative on the economic outlook,” he said, calling it “the best leading indicator of trouble ahead.”</p><h2>Watch 10-year, 3-month</h2><p>Instead of falling, that spread climbed in March, continuing its path higher since turning negative two years ago at the onset of the pandemic (see chart).</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7fe28818cd1806ee5afd5519332cf483\" tg-width=\"700\" tg-height=\"579\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/><span>The 3-month to 10-year yield spread is climbing Bloomberg data, Goelzer Investment Management</span></p><p>“The 3-month Treasury bill really tracks the Federal Reserve’s target rate,” said Gavin Stephens, director of portfolio management at Goelzer Investment Management in Indiana, by phone.</p><p>“So it gives you a more immediate picture of if the Federal Reserve has entered a restrictive state in terms of monetary policy and, thus, giving the possibility that economic growth is going to contract, which would be bad for stocks.”</p><p>Stocks were lower Friday, but with the S&amp;P 500 index SPX, +0.51% and the Nasdaq Composite Index COMP, -0.16% still up about 1.2% on the week. The three major indexes were 4.5% to 10.1% lower so far in 2022, according to FactSet.</p><p>By watching the 10s and 2s TMUBMUSD02Y, 2.280% spread, “You are looking at the expectations of where Fed Reserve interest rate policy is going to be over a period of two years,” Stephens said. “So, effectively, it’s working with a lag.”</p><p>On average, from the time the 10s and 2s curve inverts, until “there’s a recession, it’s almost two years,” he said, predicting that with unemployment recently pegged around 3.8% that, “this curve is going to invert when the economy is really strong.”</p><p>The Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco also called the 3-month TMUBMUSD03M, 0.535% and 10-year curve relationship its “preferred spread measure because it has the strongest predictive power for future recessions,” such as in 2019, back when the yield curve was more regularly flashing recession warning signs.</p><p>“Did it see COVID coming?” Duffy said, of earlier yield curve inversions.</p><p>A more likely catalyst was that investors already were on a recession watch, with the American economy in its longest expansion period on record.</p><p>“There are a number of these curves that you need to look at in totality,” Duffy said. “We’ve always said look at many signals.”</p></body></html>","source":"lsy1603348471595","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Stock-Market Investors Should Watch the \"Best Leading Indicator of Trouble Ahead\"</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; 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overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nStock-Market Investors Should Watch the \"Best Leading Indicator of Trouble Ahead\"\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2022-03-26 08:45 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://www.marketwatch.com/story/why-this-part-of-the-treasury-yield-curve-may-be-the-best-leading-indicator-of-trouble-ahead-11648210025?mod=home-page><strong>MarketWatch</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>Investors have been watching the U.S. Treasury yield curve for inversions, a reliable predictor of past economic downturns.They don’t always agree on which part of the curve is best to watch though.“...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://www.marketwatch.com/story/why-this-part-of-the-treasury-yield-curve-may-be-the-best-leading-indicator-of-trouble-ahead-11648210025?mod=home-page\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{".DJI":"道琼斯",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index"},"source_url":"https://www.marketwatch.com/story/why-this-part-of-the-treasury-yield-curve-may-be-the-best-leading-indicator-of-trouble-ahead-11648210025?mod=home-page","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1196027616","content_text":"Investors have been watching the U.S. Treasury yield curve for inversions, a reliable predictor of past economic downturns.They don’t always agree on which part of the curve is best to watch though.“Yield curve inversion, and flatting, has been at the forefront for everyone,” said Pete Duffy, chief investment officer at Penn Capital Management Company, in Philadelphia, by phone.“That’s because the Fed is so active and rates suddenly have gone up so quickly.”An inversion of the yield curve happens when rates on longer bonds fall below those of shorter-term debt, a sign that investors think economic woes could lie ahead. Fears of an economic slowdown have been mounting as the Federal Reserve starts to tighten financial conditions while Russia’s Ukraine invasion threatens to keep key drivers of U.S. inflation high.Lately, the attention has been on the 10-year Treasury yield TMUBMUSD10Y, 2.478% and shorter 2-year yield, where the spread fell to 13 basis points on Tuesday, up from a high of about 130 basis points five months ago.Read: The yield curve is speeding toward inversion — here’s what investors need to knowBut that’s not the only plot on the Treasury yield curve investors closely watch. The Treasury Department sells securities that mature in a range from a few days to 30 years, providing a lot of plots on the curve to follow.“The focus has been on the 10s and 2s,” said Mark Heppenstall, chief investment officer at Penn Mutual Asset Management, in Horsham, Penn, a northern suburb of Philadelphia.“I will hold out until the 10s to 3-month bills inverts before I turn too negative on the economic outlook,” he said, calling it “the best leading indicator of trouble ahead.”Watch 10-year, 3-monthInstead of falling, that spread climbed in March, continuing its path higher since turning negative two years ago at the onset of the pandemic (see chart).The 3-month to 10-year yield spread is climbing Bloomberg data, Goelzer Investment Management“The 3-month Treasury bill really tracks the Federal Reserve’s target rate,” said Gavin Stephens, director of portfolio management at Goelzer Investment Management in Indiana, by phone.“So it gives you a more immediate picture of if the Federal Reserve has entered a restrictive state in terms of monetary policy and, thus, giving the possibility that economic growth is going to contract, which would be bad for stocks.”Stocks were lower Friday, but with the S&P 500 index SPX, +0.51% and the Nasdaq Composite Index COMP, -0.16% still up about 1.2% on the week. The three major indexes were 4.5% to 10.1% lower so far in 2022, according to FactSet.By watching the 10s and 2s TMUBMUSD02Y, 2.280% spread, “You are looking at the expectations of where Fed Reserve interest rate policy is going to be over a period of two years,” Stephens said. “So, effectively, it’s working with a lag.”On average, from the time the 10s and 2s curve inverts, until “there’s a recession, it’s almost two years,” he said, predicting that with unemployment recently pegged around 3.8% that, “this curve is going to invert when the economy is really strong.”The Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco also called the 3-month TMUBMUSD03M, 0.535% and 10-year curve relationship its “preferred spread measure because it has the strongest predictive power for future recessions,” such as in 2019, back when the yield curve was more regularly flashing recession warning signs.“Did it see COVID coming?” Duffy said, of earlier yield curve inversions.A more likely catalyst was that investors already were on a recession watch, with the American economy in its longest expansion period on record.“There are a number of these curves that you need to look at in totality,” Duffy said. “We’ve always said look at many signals.”","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":241,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":189587318,"gmtCreate":1623282031534,"gmtModify":1704199866116,"author":{"id":"3565161371430593","authorId":"3565161371430593","name":"KFFun","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":3,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3565161371430593","authorIdStr":"3565161371430593"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Comment and like pls","listText":"Comment and like pls","text":"Comment and like 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like","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":4,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/197560436","repostId":"1129952039","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":381,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":371564705,"gmtCreate":1618961823807,"gmtModify":1704717437515,"author":{"id":"3565161371430593","authorId":"3565161371430593","name":"KFFun","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":3,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3565161371430593","authorIdStr":"3565161371430593"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Like and comment","listText":"Like and comment","text":"Like and comment","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":5,"commentSize":3,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/371564705","repostId":"2129289138","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":260,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9936381729,"gmtCreate":1662705973561,"gmtModify":1676537123819,"author":{"id":"3565161371430593","authorId":"3565161371430593","name":"KFFun","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":3,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3565161371430593","authorIdStr":"3565161371430593"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Ok","listText":"Ok","text":"Ok","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":6,"commentSize":2,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9936381729","repostId":"2266975278","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"2266975278","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1662702575,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/2266975278?lang=&edition=full_marsco","pubTime":"2022-09-09 13:49","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Here Is The Price I'll Start Buying Nvidia","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2266975278","media":"Seeking Alpha","summary":"SummaryNVIDIA has been one of the best stocks to own during the past 2 decades, but it has a long hi","content":"<html><head></head><body><p><b>Summary</b></p><ul><li>NVIDIA has been one of the best stocks to own during the past 2 decades, but it has a long history of very deep earnings and price cyclicality.</li><li>A new down cycle has started, and I compare where NVDA stock stands today compared to previous down cycles.</li><li>I also share the two price points I would be willing to buy NVIDIA stock should the price fall that far.</li><li>And I take readers through my process for arriving at these buy prices.</li></ul><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/43af2347949d7465e29a052c5644fbab\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"720\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/><span>anilakkus/iStock via Getty Images</span></p><p><b>Introduction</b></p><p>1999 was not a great year to be buying initial public offerings in the stock market. The vast majority of stocks that went public that year are no longer around. They either crashed and were bought out at very low prices, orthey went bankrupt. Most of the rest have never recovered the stock prices achieved at their IPOs or soon after. There are two exceptions to this dismal trend that I&#39;m aware of, and NVIDIA (NASDAQ:NVDA) is one of them. (BlackRock (BLK) is the other, if you are curious.)</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8df55b577ca5fe7b25afa4ea504d4e42\" tg-width=\"1280\" tg-height=\"826\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/><span>NVDA Total Return Price data by YCharts</span></p><p>It&#39;s difficult to find a stock from the late 1990s that has returned over 35K%. NVIDIA has without a doubt made a lot of investors rich. That is unless they bought the stock during the past two years. Most of those folks are severely underwater right now.</p><p>I&#39;ve never written on NVIDIA before, mostly because I didn&#39;t start writing full-time about investing until 2018, I like to buy stocks when they are very cheap, and NVIDIA has never been very cheap during the past five years. But I have successfully invested in other semiconductor stocks like Micron (MU) and Microchip Technology (MCHP) and written about them publicly. I also happen to think this particular downturn we are headed into is probably going to offer a very good buying opportunity for semiconductor-related stocks generally, and now is the time to develop a plan for when to buy them if you haven&#39;t already.</p><p>I have an atypical investing approach when it comes to stocks like NVIDIA, and while I do occasionally write warning articles when these stocks get really overvalued (as NVIDIA was last year) I find that readers are more receptive to my investing style after the stock price has fallen a bit off its highs. Readers seem less likely to pay any attention to my warnings and expectations until the start of a decline. Now that NVIDIA is trading down a little bit, my hope is I&#39;ll have a more receptive audience.</p><p><b>NVIDIA&#39;s Historical Earnings Cyclicality</b></p><p>The first thing I check for every stock I analyze is to see what its historical earnings cyclicality looks like. The reason I do this is because I want to know if this is a stock that fits the profile of a stock I would consider investing in, and also I want to know which strategy and techniques are the most appropriate to analyze the stock in question.</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/35dbfbc9574d9792299940ce8ea40772\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"330\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/><span>FAST Graphs</span></p><p>The dark green shaded area in the FAST Graph above represents NVIDIA&#39;s historical earnings per share. Earnings were very deeply cyclical in 2009, falling -82% off their highs, but they did stay positive. During the other three declining periods after 2009, EPS growth declines were modest-to-moderately deep. It is possible that without massive government stimulus and the unusual nature of the pandemic decline in 2020, NVIDIA would have experienced a deeper earnings decline during this period, but we will never know for sure. As it stands, NVIDIA&#39;s earnings exploded to record highs during fiscal years 2021 and 2022. The current year is expected to be NVIDIA&#39;s first really deep decline in EPS since the last true recession in 2009, and I think it&#39;s likely the earnings decline will continue into next year as well. Given that the Fed is still raising rates at this time and there probably will not be any more government stimulus, combined with the huge upcycle over the past two years, I think investors should be prepared for earnings growth to fall around -70% from peak to trough. It may or may not happen, but investors really need to understand that the risk of this sort of earnings decline over the short-to-medium-term is very real.</p><p>The primary reason I check earnings cyclicality is so that I can determine what sort of strategy is appropriate to use for a stock. My basic guideline is that if EPS has fallen more than -50% in the past, then I do not use an earnings and earnings-growth based analysis because earnings fluctuate too much to be a reliable guide for when to buy. In fact, earnings metrics like P/E ratios can often send the exact wrong signal for when to buy and sell cyclical stocks. Since NVIDIA saw EPS fall -82% in 2009, and I certainly expect EPS from peak to trough to fall at least -50% during the current downturn, I will be treating NVIDIA as a deeply cyclical stock.</p><p>So, instead of using an earnings-based valuation system, I use historical price cyclicality to help guide me when it comes to the prices I am willing to buy. Also, because these stocks can be extremely volatile, each position I take is only weighted approximately 1% of my portfolio.</p><p><b>Versus NVIDIA Stock&#39;s Historical Price</b><b>Cyclicality</b></p><p>Next, I&#39;m going to examine NVIDIA&#39;s historical price cyclicality in order to help guide a potential purchase price of the stock. While patterns don&#39;t offer a perfect map to the future, they at least offer pretty good guideposts that have a high probability of producing good medium-term returns over the course of 2-5 years.</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/24bf78d94b27582d4a9e7a0650e3dd42\" tg-width=\"1280\" tg-height=\"802\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/><span>NVDA data by YCharts</span></p><p>As we can see in the historical drawdown chart above, NVIDIA stock has historically been subject to some very deep price drawdowns. During &#34;normal&#34; recessions, the stock price has fallen deeper than -75% off its highs every time. Below I have put these drawdowns in table form so we can get a clearer picture. I have excluded the drawdown that immediately occurred after their IPO in 1999 since it&#39;s pretty normal for an IPO to fall more than -75% off its highs.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b56bde6e74ae15bca9ec655f8ea23769\" tg-width=\"901\" tg-height=\"408\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>First, as I noted earlier, despite NVIDIA&#39;s fantastic historical returns, the stock&#39;s price drawdowns have been extremely deep. During the 2002 recession the price fell a full -90% off its highs, and during the GFC it fell -85%. These sorts of declines can be brutal for investors to hold through. Additionally, we have seen big price declines during non-recessionary times, like in 2018, when the price fell more than -50%. Already during the current downcycle, the price is down about -60% off its peak.</p><p>One of the more interesting things that I think is worth paying attention to in this case, is how long it has taken historically for the stock to bottom during recessions (which is probably where we are headed in the near future in the US). Typically, NVIDIA stock takes roughly 12-15 months before it bottoms (which is actually very fast for declines of -85% and deeper). But right now we are only about 9 months into the current decline. Interestingly, -60% is about what we would expect to see at this point if the stock were to bottom -85% off its highs over the course of about 12-15 months. So far, NVIDIA&#39;s stock price is having a typical drawdown that we should expect during a recessionary period. From what we are seeing right now, absolutely nothing about the stock price behavior seems &#34;different this time&#34;.</p><p>Of course, we all know, that things really are a little different (maybe even more than a little different) than they were in 2008. But the truth of the matter is that often the stock market does not care all that much about those potential differences. So, in order to get the best prices (and therefore the best returns) sometimes we need forget the narratives and stories and pay close attention to market behavior. Humans, including investors, are basically identical to what they were in 2001 and 2008, and ultimately it is humans who are investing in the market.</p><p>I will frame my thoughts within the framework that my expectation is for a recession in the near future. Unlike 2018 and 2020 when economic growth slowed and the Federal Reserve and Federal Government came to the rescue with economic stimulus, we basically have the opposite happening right now. In an effort to fight inflation, the Fed is determined to raise interest rates, and if after the US elections in November we have a split government, I think we shouldn&#39;t count on anymore stimulus after that, even if the economy falls off a cliff, because there is no incentive for Republicans to help the Biden Administration avoid a bad recession. Putting all this together, my base-case is for a recession to start around Q1 2023 unless something changes between now and then. So, we need to probably take the idea of a shallower NVIDIA stock price dip off the table. (And since the stock price is already down -60%, that seems reasonable.)</p><p>Usually, if we have a recession, NVIDIA stock drops -85% off its highs, so I certainly feel comfortable being a buyer of the stock at that point. The more difficult question is whether to have an additional shallower buy price because NVIDIA appears to be in a strong secular growth trend over the past 7 or 8 years. Often (as was the case with my Micron article earlier this week) if a cyclical stock is also in a strong secular growth trend, I will have both a shallow and a deep buy price. One, based on the strength of the secular growth, and one based on the deep cyclicality of the stock. (I will share more detailed thoughts on this a little later in the article.)</p><p>My investing approach for deep cyclicals attempts to find historical patterns and then assume they will roughly repeat. However, I do check several things in order to see if there are obvious signs that this cycle really might be different this time and not repeat. I call these checks &#34;impairment tests&#34; and usually they take the form of questions. In the next section, I will run through this list of tests with NVIDIA stock.</p><p><b>Impairment Tests</b></p><p><b>Are revenues this cyclical peak higher than the last one?</b></p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/019ded39c44c5f82baece6549d82195d\" tg-width=\"1280\" tg-height=\"802\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/><span>NVDA Revenue (TTM) data by YCharts</span></p><p>This is a pretty easy one. Revenues this cycle are about triple what they were in 2018. And we have pretty good overall strength since 2006. The post-2008 recovery was a little slow, but NVIDIA eventually got there even before the blast-off after 2016.</p><p><b>Could the business have a hidden fatal flaw?</b></p><p>Since, by definition, the fatal flaw in the business model is &#34;hidden&#34; and cannot be easily seen, my test for this is whether the cyclical business in question has experienced two full business cycles because, typically, recessions are where the flaws are exposed, and sometimes businesses can get lucky and avoid trouble in one recession but have the flaw eventually catch up to them during the next. I typically pre-screen for this before I write an article, and we can see that NVIDIA has survived a couple of decades and been a proven winner and survivor, so I think we are generally safe in this regard.</p><p>That said, if we just take the recent years, and the growth associated with it, I do think it&#39;s possible that the rise of Crypto during this time, could potentially be a sort of a fatal flaw, at least with regard to the recent level of growth. I am generally bearish on the usefulness and legality of Crypto in the US, and I don&#39;t think we have seen the end of the Crypto bear market. If NVIDIA&#39;s recent success has had a lot to do with the popularity of Crypto, that&#39;s something to keep in mind. It often takes a big downcycle to expose the truth of the situation, and, in my opinion, Crypto hasn&#39;t had that yet. (Yes, I know there have been previous Crypto-winters, but that was before it became a household name. The current downcycle will be the real test.)</p><p>In the end, I think this is a question mark, still, but it should be kept in mind when trying to figure an eventual buying strategy.</p><p><b>Is there a clear and disruptive threat to its core business?</b></p><p>I think competition will always be a threat, so that&#39;s not really what I&#39;m after here (competitive threats will usually show up clearly in revenues, which we already checked). Even with some unknowns, I still think 3-5 years from now NVIDIA&#39;s business will be strong and even if we have a big downcycle with the stock price, I&#39;m still inclined to classify this as a secular growth stock, so I&#39;m not worried much about disruptive threats this cycle.</p><p><b>Has NVDA stock experienced a recent super-cycle?</b></p><p>If I have one single question about NVIDIA that I&#39;m truly uncertain about, I think this is the one. Generally speaking, I think the wider market could certainly have experienced a 2000-like super-cyclical peak at the end of 2021. This can cause a problem for a strategy like mine that measures declines from peak prices because if the peak prices are ridiculously high, then a stock might fall -60% or more off its highs as NVIDIA has and still not exactly be a good value.</p><p>I don&#39;t have a clear way to identify super-cycles. It&#39;s kind of an &#34;I&#39;ll know it when I see it&#34; sort of thing. But my quick way to check is to look at a log-scale version of a long-term historical price chart. Super-cycles tend to show up pretty well on these charts without giving as many false positives as a normal long-term price chart might.</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e36c6dc4e9a19065db7b57ea7f9538a1\" tg-width=\"1280\" tg-height=\"802\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/><span>NVDA data by YCharts</span></p><p>NVIDIA stock&#39;s historical price behavior from 1999 until about 2016 is about what we would expect from a deeply cyclical stock. What is much more difficult to discern is whether the run from 2015 through today is the result of a super upcycle, or simply the result of faster secular growth. It is very difficult to tell. We have a lot of businesses who benefitted from the unique circumstances of the combination of COVID lockdowns and government stimulus in 2020 and 2021. And, without a doubt NVIDIA was one of them. But their hyper-growth (on almost every metric, not just the stock price) actually started much earlier, back in 2015. So I honestly don&#39;t think the answer is especially clear.</p><p>While I think it&#39;s fair to say that having a deep buy price about -85% off NVIDIA&#39;s highs for one potential purchase is a pretty easy call given its history, estimating a good first and shallower buy price, is more difficult. I think any price from -60% off its highs, which is where the stock is today, down to about -75% off its highs, would be defensible, depending on where one stood regarding the super-cycle vs secular growth debate. When I initially looked at NVIDIA and started actively tracking it a year or two ago, my initial instinct was to aim for shallow buy price about -65% off its highs. But after reviewing it more closely, I&#39;ve decided to lower that down to an initial buy price that&#39;s -70% off the highs. Here&#39;s why.</p><p>While P/E ratios are not particularly good at valuing deeply cyclical stocks, they can be useful when measuring basic valuations across cyclical peaks. The idea is that the peak P/E can give you an estimate of the valuation going into a decline, and if the valuation is higher (or lower) than previous cyclical peaks, then the stock price might fall more (or less) off its highs during the current downturn. In 2007, the monthly P/E cyclical peak for NVIDIA according to FAST Graphs was about 30. The P/E cyclical peak during the current cycle was about 81. NVIDIA was much more richly valued going into the current decline than in the 2007 decline, and remember, the stock price fell a full -85% during the 2007 decline.</p><p>It is very important to remember here if a person buys a stock when it is -70% off its highs, and it eventually falls -85% off its highs, that you do not experience a -15% drawdown, you experience a -50% drawdown. For example, imagine a stock peaked at $100 and you bought it $30 (-70% off its peak), but it continued to fall to $15 (-85% off its peak), the distance between $30 and $15 is -50%. So, there is actually a pretty big gap between buying after a -70% decline and buying after a -85% decline. Toss in the uncertainty about Crypto&#39;s future and aiming for an initial buy price when the stock is -70% off its highs seems very reasonable to me.</p><p><b>Is management corrupt or incompetent?</b></p><p>I haven&#39;t seen any signs this might be the case.</p><p><b>How is the company&#39;s debt-to-equity compared to previous cycles?</b></p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/fa7face715f66aef629b8d8918da508b\" tg-width=\"1280\" tg-height=\"802\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/><span>NVDA Debt to Equity Ratio data by YCharts</span></p><p>Usually I take pause if I see a debt-to-equity ratio over 1.0 and also elevated compared to where it has been historically. In this case I see neither, so not much of an issue for me.</p><p><b>Has the price dropped enough to produce alpha in the past?</b></p><p>For this backtest, I will be using both the 2001 and the 2007 downcycles and I will be testing what sort of returns an investor would have achieved if they bought the stock after a -70% drawdown and also a -85% drawdown, both of which would have hit during these recessions. I will assume the stock was held until it recovered its previous high (which is usually when I take profits in deep cyclical stocks). I will then annualize that return and compare it to the S&amp;P 500 if bought and sold on the same dates, annualized simple return. The goal is to see if historically this would be an alpha-producing strategy, so the last column is the alpha produced by the investment annualized relative to the S&amp;P 500. If you buy after a -70% decline and sell when the stock price recovers its high, you will produce about a 230% return, so that will be the basic return in the table below.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e9d541071dc74c8937c0d8782198ee25\" tg-width=\"917\" tg-height=\"284\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>We can see that buying after a -70% decline off the highs would have produced both good absolute and relative returns. It&#39;s worth noting that investors would have had to be very patient, though, with the 2007 decline taking over seven years to recover its old highs. Typically, I don&#39;t buy cyclical stocks if historically it has taken over five years for the stock to recover its old highs unless the returns are very good. In NVIDIA&#39;s case, they still managed almost 30% simple annualized returns so it still works out, but it helps bolster the case that it&#39;s worth aiming for very low buy prices when the recovery times can be expected to be very long. Additionally, an investor would have had to still be able to sit through a big drawdown if they bought after a -70% decline.</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/fd34148e686b4d5fabc91d05ea92ff29\" tg-width=\"1280\" tg-height=\"802\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/><span>NVDA data by YCharts</span></p><p>An investor who bought after a -70% <i>still</i> would have had to sit through a further -60% decline in 2002.</p><p>Next, let&#39;s move on to what the numbers look like if an investor would have bought after an -85% decline (which would produce a little over a 600% basic return after a full stock price recovery).</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c0bc789336b0c4591e8fe1b0da67692d\" tg-width=\"915\" tg-height=\"287\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>As we can see, both absolute and relative returns here are excellent, but an investor would have still needed lots of patience in order to benefit from the full recovery.</p><p>Certainly the odds of NVIDIA stock falling this much again, are fairly low, but if we were to have a moderately bad recession, investors, at the very least, need to be prepared mentally to handle this sort of decline.</p><p><b>Additional Strategic Considerations</b></p><p>The way I am approaching the handful of deeply cyclical semiconductor stocks I intend to buy twice during thisdowncycleis that for the first, and shallower purchase, I am currently holding about 25-30% cash, and the funds for that purchase will come from the cash. For the second, and deeper potential purchase, it&#39;s likely that if the prices go that low, I will have invested most of my cash already into the market, and I don&#39;t have any special cash earmarked for the second purchase, so what will likely happen is I will sell a stock or two that is either lower beta or lower quality to fund the purchase. I had a question in my Micron article asking for an example of what stock this might be. Of my current holdings, a low-beta and not especially high quality example, would be Altria (MO), or Tyson Foods (TSN), both of which are unlikely to fall nearly as deeply as NVIDIA in a recession, but which are both also less likely to provide the great returns of NVIDIA during the next upcycle. So those are the sorts of stocks I would tap for cash if we get into a very deep bear market.</p><p>Because it is possible that NVIDIA may have recently experienced a much bigger super-cycle than I am currently factoring in (remember the 2007 30 peak P/E compared to the 81 peak P/E this time) I think it&#39;s worth mentioning that just because a stock has had a super-upcycle doesn&#39;t mean it&#39;s uninvestable during the super-downcycle. But, typically what I do if I am more certain of the super-upcycle is to wait for a reasonably clear double-bottom instead of buying the stock on the way down. When super-upcycles come down they can be extremely brutal, but I have had success in the past with stocks like 3D Systems (DDD) and Albemarle (ALB) simply waiting for a somewhat clear bottom after a super-cycle, and I think that&#39;s a reasonable strategy here as well. I decided not to use it because my buy prices are already so low I&#39;m sort of prepared for a super-downcycle already.</p><p>Putting all this together, my first buy price for NVIDIA is about -25% lower from today&#39;s price at $103.94, and my second, deeper buy price, is $51.97. Importantly, these are not what many refer to as &#34;price targets&#34;, which imply that I&#39;m predicting with some high level of confidence and probability the stock will hit these prices. What I am saying is these are the prices at which I will be a buyer if they hit. The shallower buy price I do think has a greater than 50% chance of hitting, and the lower one, perhaps closer to a 10-15% chance of hitting. The important thing for investors to know is that if we have a recession, then it is <i>normal</i> for NVIDIA&#39;s stock price to move down to these levels. NVIDIA stock can literally fall -85% off its highs and that price movement doesn&#39;t tell you anything about the quality of the business itself, other than the business is cyclical. So, if you hold NVIDIA stock and you believe in the long-term, I think this article can be useful to you as well if it helps prevent you from selling (likely to someone like me) near the bottom.</p><p><i>This article was written by Cory Cramer </i><i>for reference only.</i></p></body></html>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Here Is The Price I'll Start Buying Nvidia</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nHere Is The Price I'll Start Buying Nvidia\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2022-09-09 13:49 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://seekingalpha.com/article/4539763-here-is-the-price-ill-start-buying-nvidia><strong>Seeking Alpha</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>SummaryNVIDIA has been one of the best stocks to own during the past 2 decades, but it has a long history of very deep earnings and price cyclicality.A new down cycle has started, and I compare where ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4539763-here-is-the-price-ill-start-buying-nvidia\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4539763-here-is-the-price-ill-start-buying-nvidia","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2266975278","content_text":"SummaryNVIDIA has been one of the best stocks to own during the past 2 decades, but it has a long history of very deep earnings and price cyclicality.A new down cycle has started, and I compare where NVDA stock stands today compared to previous down cycles.I also share the two price points I would be willing to buy NVIDIA stock should the price fall that far.And I take readers through my process for arriving at these buy prices.anilakkus/iStock via Getty ImagesIntroduction1999 was not a great year to be buying initial public offerings in the stock market. The vast majority of stocks that went public that year are no longer around. They either crashed and were bought out at very low prices, orthey went bankrupt. Most of the rest have never recovered the stock prices achieved at their IPOs or soon after. There are two exceptions to this dismal trend that I'm aware of, and NVIDIA (NASDAQ:NVDA) is one of them. (BlackRock (BLK) is the other, if you are curious.)NVDA Total Return Price data by YChartsIt's difficult to find a stock from the late 1990s that has returned over 35K%. NVIDIA has without a doubt made a lot of investors rich. That is unless they bought the stock during the past two years. Most of those folks are severely underwater right now.I've never written on NVIDIA before, mostly because I didn't start writing full-time about investing until 2018, I like to buy stocks when they are very cheap, and NVIDIA has never been very cheap during the past five years. But I have successfully invested in other semiconductor stocks like Micron (MU) and Microchip Technology (MCHP) and written about them publicly. I also happen to think this particular downturn we are headed into is probably going to offer a very good buying opportunity for semiconductor-related stocks generally, and now is the time to develop a plan for when to buy them if you haven't already.I have an atypical investing approach when it comes to stocks like NVIDIA, and while I do occasionally write warning articles when these stocks get really overvalued (as NVIDIA was last year) I find that readers are more receptive to my investing style after the stock price has fallen a bit off its highs. Readers seem less likely to pay any attention to my warnings and expectations until the start of a decline. Now that NVIDIA is trading down a little bit, my hope is I'll have a more receptive audience.NVIDIA's Historical Earnings CyclicalityThe first thing I check for every stock I analyze is to see what its historical earnings cyclicality looks like. The reason I do this is because I want to know if this is a stock that fits the profile of a stock I would consider investing in, and also I want to know which strategy and techniques are the most appropriate to analyze the stock in question.FAST GraphsThe dark green shaded area in the FAST Graph above represents NVIDIA's historical earnings per share. Earnings were very deeply cyclical in 2009, falling -82% off their highs, but they did stay positive. During the other three declining periods after 2009, EPS growth declines were modest-to-moderately deep. It is possible that without massive government stimulus and the unusual nature of the pandemic decline in 2020, NVIDIA would have experienced a deeper earnings decline during this period, but we will never know for sure. As it stands, NVIDIA's earnings exploded to record highs during fiscal years 2021 and 2022. The current year is expected to be NVIDIA's first really deep decline in EPS since the last true recession in 2009, and I think it's likely the earnings decline will continue into next year as well. Given that the Fed is still raising rates at this time and there probably will not be any more government stimulus, combined with the huge upcycle over the past two years, I think investors should be prepared for earnings growth to fall around -70% from peak to trough. It may or may not happen, but investors really need to understand that the risk of this sort of earnings decline over the short-to-medium-term is very real.The primary reason I check earnings cyclicality is so that I can determine what sort of strategy is appropriate to use for a stock. My basic guideline is that if EPS has fallen more than -50% in the past, then I do not use an earnings and earnings-growth based analysis because earnings fluctuate too much to be a reliable guide for when to buy. In fact, earnings metrics like P/E ratios can often send the exact wrong signal for when to buy and sell cyclical stocks. Since NVIDIA saw EPS fall -82% in 2009, and I certainly expect EPS from peak to trough to fall at least -50% during the current downturn, I will be treating NVIDIA as a deeply cyclical stock.So, instead of using an earnings-based valuation system, I use historical price cyclicality to help guide me when it comes to the prices I am willing to buy. Also, because these stocks can be extremely volatile, each position I take is only weighted approximately 1% of my portfolio.Versus NVIDIA Stock's Historical PriceCyclicalityNext, I'm going to examine NVIDIA's historical price cyclicality in order to help guide a potential purchase price of the stock. While patterns don't offer a perfect map to the future, they at least offer pretty good guideposts that have a high probability of producing good medium-term returns over the course of 2-5 years.NVDA data by YChartsAs we can see in the historical drawdown chart above, NVIDIA stock has historically been subject to some very deep price drawdowns. During \"normal\" recessions, the stock price has fallen deeper than -75% off its highs every time. Below I have put these drawdowns in table form so we can get a clearer picture. I have excluded the drawdown that immediately occurred after their IPO in 1999 since it's pretty normal for an IPO to fall more than -75% off its highs.First, as I noted earlier, despite NVIDIA's fantastic historical returns, the stock's price drawdowns have been extremely deep. During the 2002 recession the price fell a full -90% off its highs, and during the GFC it fell -85%. These sorts of declines can be brutal for investors to hold through. Additionally, we have seen big price declines during non-recessionary times, like in 2018, when the price fell more than -50%. Already during the current downcycle, the price is down about -60% off its peak.One of the more interesting things that I think is worth paying attention to in this case, is how long it has taken historically for the stock to bottom during recessions (which is probably where we are headed in the near future in the US). Typically, NVIDIA stock takes roughly 12-15 months before it bottoms (which is actually very fast for declines of -85% and deeper). But right now we are only about 9 months into the current decline. Interestingly, -60% is about what we would expect to see at this point if the stock were to bottom -85% off its highs over the course of about 12-15 months. So far, NVIDIA's stock price is having a typical drawdown that we should expect during a recessionary period. From what we are seeing right now, absolutely nothing about the stock price behavior seems \"different this time\".Of course, we all know, that things really are a little different (maybe even more than a little different) than they were in 2008. But the truth of the matter is that often the stock market does not care all that much about those potential differences. So, in order to get the best prices (and therefore the best returns) sometimes we need forget the narratives and stories and pay close attention to market behavior. Humans, including investors, are basically identical to what they were in 2001 and 2008, and ultimately it is humans who are investing in the market.I will frame my thoughts within the framework that my expectation is for a recession in the near future. Unlike 2018 and 2020 when economic growth slowed and the Federal Reserve and Federal Government came to the rescue with economic stimulus, we basically have the opposite happening right now. In an effort to fight inflation, the Fed is determined to raise interest rates, and if after the US elections in November we have a split government, I think we shouldn't count on anymore stimulus after that, even if the economy falls off a cliff, because there is no incentive for Republicans to help the Biden Administration avoid a bad recession. Putting all this together, my base-case is for a recession to start around Q1 2023 unless something changes between now and then. So, we need to probably take the idea of a shallower NVIDIA stock price dip off the table. (And since the stock price is already down -60%, that seems reasonable.)Usually, if we have a recession, NVIDIA stock drops -85% off its highs, so I certainly feel comfortable being a buyer of the stock at that point. The more difficult question is whether to have an additional shallower buy price because NVIDIA appears to be in a strong secular growth trend over the past 7 or 8 years. Often (as was the case with my Micron article earlier this week) if a cyclical stock is also in a strong secular growth trend, I will have both a shallow and a deep buy price. One, based on the strength of the secular growth, and one based on the deep cyclicality of the stock. (I will share more detailed thoughts on this a little later in the article.)My investing approach for deep cyclicals attempts to find historical patterns and then assume they will roughly repeat. However, I do check several things in order to see if there are obvious signs that this cycle really might be different this time and not repeat. I call these checks \"impairment tests\" and usually they take the form of questions. In the next section, I will run through this list of tests with NVIDIA stock.Impairment TestsAre revenues this cyclical peak higher than the last one?NVDA Revenue (TTM) data by YChartsThis is a pretty easy one. Revenues this cycle are about triple what they were in 2018. And we have pretty good overall strength since 2006. The post-2008 recovery was a little slow, but NVIDIA eventually got there even before the blast-off after 2016.Could the business have a hidden fatal flaw?Since, by definition, the fatal flaw in the business model is \"hidden\" and cannot be easily seen, my test for this is whether the cyclical business in question has experienced two full business cycles because, typically, recessions are where the flaws are exposed, and sometimes businesses can get lucky and avoid trouble in one recession but have the flaw eventually catch up to them during the next. I typically pre-screen for this before I write an article, and we can see that NVIDIA has survived a couple of decades and been a proven winner and survivor, so I think we are generally safe in this regard.That said, if we just take the recent years, and the growth associated with it, I do think it's possible that the rise of Crypto during this time, could potentially be a sort of a fatal flaw, at least with regard to the recent level of growth. I am generally bearish on the usefulness and legality of Crypto in the US, and I don't think we have seen the end of the Crypto bear market. If NVIDIA's recent success has had a lot to do with the popularity of Crypto, that's something to keep in mind. It often takes a big downcycle to expose the truth of the situation, and, in my opinion, Crypto hasn't had that yet. (Yes, I know there have been previous Crypto-winters, but that was before it became a household name. The current downcycle will be the real test.)In the end, I think this is a question mark, still, but it should be kept in mind when trying to figure an eventual buying strategy.Is there a clear and disruptive threat to its core business?I think competition will always be a threat, so that's not really what I'm after here (competitive threats will usually show up clearly in revenues, which we already checked). Even with some unknowns, I still think 3-5 years from now NVIDIA's business will be strong and even if we have a big downcycle with the stock price, I'm still inclined to classify this as a secular growth stock, so I'm not worried much about disruptive threats this cycle.Has NVDA stock experienced a recent super-cycle?If I have one single question about NVIDIA that I'm truly uncertain about, I think this is the one. Generally speaking, I think the wider market could certainly have experienced a 2000-like super-cyclical peak at the end of 2021. This can cause a problem for a strategy like mine that measures declines from peak prices because if the peak prices are ridiculously high, then a stock might fall -60% or more off its highs as NVIDIA has and still not exactly be a good value.I don't have a clear way to identify super-cycles. It's kind of an \"I'll know it when I see it\" sort of thing. But my quick way to check is to look at a log-scale version of a long-term historical price chart. Super-cycles tend to show up pretty well on these charts without giving as many false positives as a normal long-term price chart might.NVDA data by YChartsNVIDIA stock's historical price behavior from 1999 until about 2016 is about what we would expect from a deeply cyclical stock. What is much more difficult to discern is whether the run from 2015 through today is the result of a super upcycle, or simply the result of faster secular growth. It is very difficult to tell. We have a lot of businesses who benefitted from the unique circumstances of the combination of COVID lockdowns and government stimulus in 2020 and 2021. And, without a doubt NVIDIA was one of them. But their hyper-growth (on almost every metric, not just the stock price) actually started much earlier, back in 2015. So I honestly don't think the answer is especially clear.While I think it's fair to say that having a deep buy price about -85% off NVIDIA's highs for one potential purchase is a pretty easy call given its history, estimating a good first and shallower buy price, is more difficult. I think any price from -60% off its highs, which is where the stock is today, down to about -75% off its highs, would be defensible, depending on where one stood regarding the super-cycle vs secular growth debate. When I initially looked at NVIDIA and started actively tracking it a year or two ago, my initial instinct was to aim for shallow buy price about -65% off its highs. But after reviewing it more closely, I've decided to lower that down to an initial buy price that's -70% off the highs. Here's why.While P/E ratios are not particularly good at valuing deeply cyclical stocks, they can be useful when measuring basic valuations across cyclical peaks. The idea is that the peak P/E can give you an estimate of the valuation going into a decline, and if the valuation is higher (or lower) than previous cyclical peaks, then the stock price might fall more (or less) off its highs during the current downturn. In 2007, the monthly P/E cyclical peak for NVIDIA according to FAST Graphs was about 30. The P/E cyclical peak during the current cycle was about 81. NVIDIA was much more richly valued going into the current decline than in the 2007 decline, and remember, the stock price fell a full -85% during the 2007 decline.It is very important to remember here if a person buys a stock when it is -70% off its highs, and it eventually falls -85% off its highs, that you do not experience a -15% drawdown, you experience a -50% drawdown. For example, imagine a stock peaked at $100 and you bought it $30 (-70% off its peak), but it continued to fall to $15 (-85% off its peak), the distance between $30 and $15 is -50%. So, there is actually a pretty big gap between buying after a -70% decline and buying after a -85% decline. Toss in the uncertainty about Crypto's future and aiming for an initial buy price when the stock is -70% off its highs seems very reasonable to me.Is management corrupt or incompetent?I haven't seen any signs this might be the case.How is the company's debt-to-equity compared to previous cycles?NVDA Debt to Equity Ratio data by YChartsUsually I take pause if I see a debt-to-equity ratio over 1.0 and also elevated compared to where it has been historically. In this case I see neither, so not much of an issue for me.Has the price dropped enough to produce alpha in the past?For this backtest, I will be using both the 2001 and the 2007 downcycles and I will be testing what sort of returns an investor would have achieved if they bought the stock after a -70% drawdown and also a -85% drawdown, both of which would have hit during these recessions. I will assume the stock was held until it recovered its previous high (which is usually when I take profits in deep cyclical stocks). I will then annualize that return and compare it to the S&P 500 if bought and sold on the same dates, annualized simple return. The goal is to see if historically this would be an alpha-producing strategy, so the last column is the alpha produced by the investment annualized relative to the S&P 500. If you buy after a -70% decline and sell when the stock price recovers its high, you will produce about a 230% return, so that will be the basic return in the table below.We can see that buying after a -70% decline off the highs would have produced both good absolute and relative returns. It's worth noting that investors would have had to be very patient, though, with the 2007 decline taking over seven years to recover its old highs. Typically, I don't buy cyclical stocks if historically it has taken over five years for the stock to recover its old highs unless the returns are very good. In NVIDIA's case, they still managed almost 30% simple annualized returns so it still works out, but it helps bolster the case that it's worth aiming for very low buy prices when the recovery times can be expected to be very long. Additionally, an investor would have had to still be able to sit through a big drawdown if they bought after a -70% decline.NVDA data by YChartsAn investor who bought after a -70% still would have had to sit through a further -60% decline in 2002.Next, let's move on to what the numbers look like if an investor would have bought after an -85% decline (which would produce a little over a 600% basic return after a full stock price recovery).As we can see, both absolute and relative returns here are excellent, but an investor would have still needed lots of patience in order to benefit from the full recovery.Certainly the odds of NVIDIA stock falling this much again, are fairly low, but if we were to have a moderately bad recession, investors, at the very least, need to be prepared mentally to handle this sort of decline.Additional Strategic ConsiderationsThe way I am approaching the handful of deeply cyclical semiconductor stocks I intend to buy twice during thisdowncycleis that for the first, and shallower purchase, I am currently holding about 25-30% cash, and the funds for that purchase will come from the cash. For the second, and deeper potential purchase, it's likely that if the prices go that low, I will have invested most of my cash already into the market, and I don't have any special cash earmarked for the second purchase, so what will likely happen is I will sell a stock or two that is either lower beta or lower quality to fund the purchase. I had a question in my Micron article asking for an example of what stock this might be. Of my current holdings, a low-beta and not especially high quality example, would be Altria (MO), or Tyson Foods (TSN), both of which are unlikely to fall nearly as deeply as NVIDIA in a recession, but which are both also less likely to provide the great returns of NVIDIA during the next upcycle. So those are the sorts of stocks I would tap for cash if we get into a very deep bear market.Because it is possible that NVIDIA may have recently experienced a much bigger super-cycle than I am currently factoring in (remember the 2007 30 peak P/E compared to the 81 peak P/E this time) I think it's worth mentioning that just because a stock has had a super-upcycle doesn't mean it's uninvestable during the super-downcycle. But, typically what I do if I am more certain of the super-upcycle is to wait for a reasonably clear double-bottom instead of buying the stock on the way down. When super-upcycles come down they can be extremely brutal, but I have had success in the past with stocks like 3D Systems (DDD) and Albemarle (ALB) simply waiting for a somewhat clear bottom after a super-cycle, and I think that's a reasonable strategy here as well. I decided not to use it because my buy prices are already so low I'm sort of prepared for a super-downcycle already.Putting all this together, my first buy price for NVIDIA is about -25% lower from today's price at $103.94, and my second, deeper buy price, is $51.97. Importantly, these are not what many refer to as \"price targets\", which imply that I'm predicting with some high level of confidence and probability the stock will hit these prices. What I am saying is these are the prices at which I will be a buyer if they hit. The shallower buy price I do think has a greater than 50% chance of hitting, and the lower one, perhaps closer to a 10-15% chance of hitting. The important thing for investors to know is that if we have a recession, then it is normal for NVIDIA's stock price to move down to these levels. NVIDIA stock can literally fall -85% off its highs and that price movement doesn't tell you anything about the quality of the business itself, other than the business is cyclical. So, if you hold NVIDIA stock and you believe in the long-term, I think this article can be useful to you as well if it helps prevent you from selling (likely to someone like me) near the bottom.This article was written by Cory Cramer for reference only.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":194,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9933975421,"gmtCreate":1662213976763,"gmtModify":1676537019089,"author":{"id":"3565161371430593","authorId":"3565161371430593","name":"KFFun","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":3,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3565161371430593","authorIdStr":"3565161371430593"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Ok","listText":"Ok","text":"Ok","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":6,"commentSize":2,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9933975421","repostId":"1184784977","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1184784977","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1662174038,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1184784977?lang=&edition=full_marsco","pubTime":"2022-09-03 11:00","market":"us","language":"en","title":"September May Bring The S&P 500 Back To Its June Lows","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1184784977","media":"Seeking Alpha","summary":"SummaryThe S&P 500 has fallen sharply in recent days, as the dovish pivot has vanished.An FOMC meeti","content":"<html><head></head><body><p><b>Summary</b></p><ul><li>The S&amp;P 500 has fallen sharply in recent days, as the dovish pivot has vanished.</li><li>An FOMC meeting and a slew of economic data will make September very volatile.</li><li>Rising rates and uncertainty could put the June lows in play.</li></ul><p>Stocks are off to a turbulent start in September, as the Fed crushed all hopes of a dovish pivot at the Jackson Hole meeting last Friday. To make matters worse, September will hold several key economic data points and an FOMC meeting which could create even more volatility in a seasonally lousy time.</p><p>Today&#39;s job report appeared a bit weaker on the surface due to the rising unemployment rate. However, the jobs data showed that the pace of hiring in the economy is still strong, and wage growth remains elevated, despite rising slower than inflation.</p><p>The increase in unemployment was driven mainly by the number of workers not in the workforce dropping by 613,000 while the population growth increased by 172,000. This increased the civilian labor force by 786,000, with 442,000 finding work and 344,000 moving into the unemployed column. Unemployment didn&#39;t rise because people were losing jobs; unemployment increased because people were pulled into the labor force, perhaps because of solid wage growth, which increased by 5.2% year-over-year.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b84ce593ffddaaaf877449fe8aa645d2\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"192\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>BLS.GOV</p><p>More interesting is that the pace of hiring in the household survey accelerated in August and increased at its fastest rate since March 2022. None of the data from the unemployment report would suggest the Fed is likely to do anything different than it has previously indicated.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/791401f8937b11a9c345764a956dbed6\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"338\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Bloomberg</p><p>Meanwhile, CPI is likely still tracking above 8% for August and September, based on the Cleveland Fed estimates. Currently, estimates are for a year-over-year inflation rate of 8.3% for August, and 8.4% for September. Meanwhile, core CPI is forecast to rise by 6.25% in August and 6.6% in September. The increase in CPI for August would be slightly slower than 8.5% for July, while core CPI would be somewhat faster than the 5.9% y/y change.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f7e19e82ac100d02e922240146dd66a6\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"337\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Bloomberg</p><p>A rising core CPI and a strong employment report could push the Fed to raise rates by 75 bps in September. While markets are leaning towards a 75 bps rate hike in September, they aren&#39;t convinced, with current odds at just 62%.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/67b0ea44418c49e83255c4d0524d70bb\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"320\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>CME Group</p><p>On top of that September tends to be, on average over the past 30 years, the weakest month with an average decline of -0.34%. The declines have been as much as 11%, and the gains have been as much as 8.8%.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/779c427f3192a6ad21f8686b92e742f1\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"434\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Bloomberg</p><p><b>S&amp;P 500 Valuation Is Rich Versus Bonds</b></p><p>Data and questions around the next Fed meeting will create a lot of volatility in an already weak time of the year. Interest rates have risen dramatically since Jackson Hole, pushing the S&amp;P 500&#39;s valuation to historically high levels relative to the 10-yr yield, with a current spread between the earnings yield and the 10-yr rate now at 2.47%. But given, that spread should be widening because that is what happens when financial conditions tighten, it tells us that stocks are overvalued currently versus bonds.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/fb5d69d23d8cf6e3e3a3fc0d6ef85286\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"235\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Bloomberg</p><p>With a nominal 10-Yr rate hovering around 3.25%, if the spread between the S&amp;P 500 earnings yield and the 10-Yr rate moves up to 3%, it would assume an earnings yield for the S&amp;P 500 of 6.25%, or a PE Ratio of 16, which is about 9% lower than the S&amp;P&#39;s current PE of roughly 17.6. That would equate to a value on the S&amp;P 500 of approximately 3,640 and close to the June lows.</p><p><b>June Lows Are In-Play</b></p><p>The likelihood of the S&amp;P 500 retesting those June lows seems to be increasing, and today&#39;s job data isn&#39;t likely to help. The fact of the matter is that rates are rising, and the August jobs data do not suggest the Fed should slow rate hikes or change its policy path, and the CPI data isn&#39;t likely to either. This means the Fed should remain on course to raise rates to around 4% by the middle of 2023, as the Fed Funds Futures are pricing. Given that, it will be tough for an equity rally to see a sustained advance.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0df38f9295305d9279da28bfae09f5b1\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"503\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Bloomberg</p><p>As rates continue to price higher, not only will nominal rates climb, but so will real rates, and currently, the 5-year and 10-Yr TIP rates have climbed right back to or above their cycle highs. This means that if real rates are rising, shouldn&#39;t the earnings yield of the S&amp;P 500 be rising too? After all, they have followed each other this closely for the past five years; shouldn&#39;t that continue well into the future?</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7d089ca0d6d95c63abe24819e26ed648\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"323\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Bloomberg</p><p>Unless, of course, you still think the Fed will make a dovish pivot.</p></body></html>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>September May Bring The S&P 500 Back To Its June Lows</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nSeptember May Bring The S&P 500 Back To Its June Lows\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2022-09-03 11:00 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://seekingalpha.com/article/4538702-september-may-bring-the-s-and-p-500-back-to-its-june-lows><strong>Seeking Alpha</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>SummaryThe S&P 500 has fallen sharply in recent days, as the dovish pivot has vanished.An FOMC meeting and a slew of economic data will make September very volatile.Rising rates and uncertainty could ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4538702-september-may-bring-the-s-and-p-500-back-to-its-june-lows\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{".SPX":"S&P 500 Index","SPY":"标普500ETF"},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4538702-september-may-bring-the-s-and-p-500-back-to-its-june-lows","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1184784977","content_text":"SummaryThe S&P 500 has fallen sharply in recent days, as the dovish pivot has vanished.An FOMC meeting and a slew of economic data will make September very volatile.Rising rates and uncertainty could put the June lows in play.Stocks are off to a turbulent start in September, as the Fed crushed all hopes of a dovish pivot at the Jackson Hole meeting last Friday. To make matters worse, September will hold several key economic data points and an FOMC meeting which could create even more volatility in a seasonally lousy time.Today's job report appeared a bit weaker on the surface due to the rising unemployment rate. However, the jobs data showed that the pace of hiring in the economy is still strong, and wage growth remains elevated, despite rising slower than inflation.The increase in unemployment was driven mainly by the number of workers not in the workforce dropping by 613,000 while the population growth increased by 172,000. This increased the civilian labor force by 786,000, with 442,000 finding work and 344,000 moving into the unemployed column. Unemployment didn't rise because people were losing jobs; unemployment increased because people were pulled into the labor force, perhaps because of solid wage growth, which increased by 5.2% year-over-year.BLS.GOVMore interesting is that the pace of hiring in the household survey accelerated in August and increased at its fastest rate since March 2022. None of the data from the unemployment report would suggest the Fed is likely to do anything different than it has previously indicated.BloombergMeanwhile, CPI is likely still tracking above 8% for August and September, based on the Cleveland Fed estimates. Currently, estimates are for a year-over-year inflation rate of 8.3% for August, and 8.4% for September. Meanwhile, core CPI is forecast to rise by 6.25% in August and 6.6% in September. The increase in CPI for August would be slightly slower than 8.5% for July, while core CPI would be somewhat faster than the 5.9% y/y change.BloombergA rising core CPI and a strong employment report could push the Fed to raise rates by 75 bps in September. While markets are leaning towards a 75 bps rate hike in September, they aren't convinced, with current odds at just 62%.CME GroupOn top of that September tends to be, on average over the past 30 years, the weakest month with an average decline of -0.34%. The declines have been as much as 11%, and the gains have been as much as 8.8%.BloombergS&P 500 Valuation Is Rich Versus BondsData and questions around the next Fed meeting will create a lot of volatility in an already weak time of the year. Interest rates have risen dramatically since Jackson Hole, pushing the S&P 500's valuation to historically high levels relative to the 10-yr yield, with a current spread between the earnings yield and the 10-yr rate now at 2.47%. But given, that spread should be widening because that is what happens when financial conditions tighten, it tells us that stocks are overvalued currently versus bonds.BloombergWith a nominal 10-Yr rate hovering around 3.25%, if the spread between the S&P 500 earnings yield and the 10-Yr rate moves up to 3%, it would assume an earnings yield for the S&P 500 of 6.25%, or a PE Ratio of 16, which is about 9% lower than the S&P's current PE of roughly 17.6. That would equate to a value on the S&P 500 of approximately 3,640 and close to the June lows.June Lows Are In-PlayThe likelihood of the S&P 500 retesting those June lows seems to be increasing, and today's job data isn't likely to help. The fact of the matter is that rates are rising, and the August jobs data do not suggest the Fed should slow rate hikes or change its policy path, and the CPI data isn't likely to either. This means the Fed should remain on course to raise rates to around 4% by the middle of 2023, as the Fed Funds Futures are pricing. Given that, it will be tough for an equity rally to see a sustained advance.BloombergAs rates continue to price higher, not only will nominal rates climb, but so will real rates, and currently, the 5-year and 10-Yr TIP rates have climbed right back to or above their cycle highs. This means that if real rates are rising, shouldn't the earnings yield of the S&P 500 be rising too? After all, they have followed each other this closely for the past five years; shouldn't that continue well into the future?BloombergUnless, of course, you still think the Fed will make a dovish pivot.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":195,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9907736969,"gmtCreate":1660257508454,"gmtModify":1676531577097,"author":{"id":"3565161371430593","authorId":"3565161371430593","name":"KFFun","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":3,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3565161371430593","authorIdStr":"3565161371430593"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Ok","listText":"Ok","text":"Ok","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":6,"commentSize":2,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9907736969","repostId":"1103823286","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1103823286","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1660231920,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1103823286?lang=&edition=full_marsco","pubTime":"2022-08-11 23:32","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Alibaba: More Bad News","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1103823286","media":"Seeking Alpha","summary":"SummaryAlibaba's shares are trading at seemingly attractive valuation multiples but investors should","content":"<html><head></head><body><p><b>Summary</b></p><ul><li>Alibaba&#39;s shares are trading at seemingly attractive valuation multiples but investors shouldn&#39;t fall into the trap.</li><li>Prospects for investing in Alibaba have significantly deteriorated in recent weeks.</li><li>Risk-averse investors may want to avoid the stock for the time being.</li></ul><p>Alibaba&#39;s (NYSE:BABA) (OTCPK:BABAF) shares are down over 50% in the last year and many investors are getting tempted to buy. The general rationale is that the stock has fallen enough already and that it should only rally on from here on out. While that might have been a compelling contrarian argument till a few weeks ago, it&#39;s now rife with problems, speculation and stretched assumptions. In this article, I&#39;ll explain why investors may want to avoid the value trap that Alibaba is gradually turning out to be. Let&#39;s take a closer look at it all.</p><p><b>The Valuation Misconception</b></p><p>Let me start by saying that Alibaba&#39;s shares are trading at just 2.1-times its trailing twelve-month sales. This is quite low, especially when considering that the stock used to trade at over 24-times its sales back in 2015. Given this steep discount compared to its own prior levels, contrarian investors have been arguing that the stock is attractively valued and that it doesn&#39;t have much downside potential left from current levels.</p><p>While that sounds like a compelling argument, the problem here is that industry comparables are trading at even more attractive multiples. The chart below should put things in perspective. The X-axis plots the Price-to-Sales (or P/S) multiples for over 25 internet retail stocks that are listed on US bourses. Note how Alibaba is horizontally positioned slightly towards the right, indicating that its trading at levels that are marginally higher than the industry average.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f5d6db06c8da4548d2002f11348dc0e4\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"358\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>BusinessQuant.com</p><p>Now, let&#39;s shift attention to the Y-axis, which plots the revenue growth rates for the same set of companies. Note how Alibaba is vertically positioned much lower than a broad swath of its other listed peers. This suggests that the stock is valued slightly higher than the industry average but its revenue growth rate is lower than most its peers in general. This implies that Alibaba&#39;s shares have room to correct further, in order to justify its subpar growth rate.</p><p>There are at least 14 other stocks classified in the internet retail industry, that are growing faster than Alibaba but trading at lower P/S multiples. This disparity is all the more prominent when we consider that Alibaba&#39;s US-listed shares offer an ownership only in a shell company floated in Cayman Islands, whereas its other attractively-priced US-based peers offer ownership in actual companies. Because of this difference in the nature of securities, Alibaba&#39;s shares should ideally be trading at a discount compared to its US-based peers in the first place, but it&#39;s actually trading at a slight premium instead. This should encourage contrarian investors to reconsider their thesis for the e-commerce giant.</p><p><b>The Growth Slowdown</b></p><p>Moving on, the Chinese government hasn&#39;t hiked its interest rates in recent months, unlike the US. This suggests the Chinese economy will continue growing at a relatively faster pace and companies operating there should, at least in theory, thrive while other global economies stagnate and/or go into recession. This industry tailwind should indeed boost Alibaba&#39;s growth prospects and it&#39;s admittedly a silver lining in the whole contrarian narrative.</p><p>But there&#39;s a problem here as well. Hindering consumer spending in Q3 may trigger a more profound slowdown for Alibaba and other similarly positioned Chinese e-commerce companies, negating the positives of low interest rates in the country. This is gradually reflected in the Street&#39;s forecasts - note how analysts have been gradually lowering their revenue estimates for the company in nearly every passing week.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e2fe58214fe586338142e205e80429ea\" tg-width=\"637\" tg-height=\"437\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Ycharts</p><p>This situation should again encourage investors to rethink their rationale for Alibaba.</p><p><b>The Delisting Risk</b></p><p>Lastly, contrarian investors are hopeful that delisting fears pertaining to Alibaba are exaggerated and not really a matter of concern. However, the risk is very real. The SEC published a yet another list about 10 days ago, noting that Alibaba and 270 other Chinese companies will be forcefully delisted from US bourses if they don&#39;t open up for audit inspections.</p><p>Chinese regulators had reassured investors earlier this year that they&#39;re going to work with the SEC and comply with their audit requirements, in order to prevent mass delisting of Chinese stocks from US bourses. But I&#39;ve been warning investors that the regulators haven&#39;t been making any progress and the risk remains. The prospect of such progress seems even more unlikely now.</p><p>One might argue that Alibaba is listed on Hong Kong bourses so a delisting in the US won&#39;t make a difference. But it will. The prospect of Alibaba&#39;s shares getting delisted in the US, is likely to prompt a mass selloff by institutional investors that have mandates to invest in only US stocks. Besides, the financial cost of owning Hong Kong-listed stocks is far higher for US citizens, so retail investors are likely to sell their shares too in large numbers.</p><p>Moreover, it&#39;s not like Hong Kong-listed shares have been performing any better than their US-listed shares. Both the stocks have continuously declined for the better part of the past year and I expect the downtrend to continue in Hong Kong listed shares going forward as well, given the deteriorating growth prospects for Alibaba as a company and its stretched valuation in general.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e429e60a44011b271d8005a772849ddd\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"328\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Yahoo Finance</p><p><b>Final Thoughts</b></p><p>There&#39;s no denying that Alibaba has grown its top line at a rapid rate in the past decade. The company has expanded its operations over time and its different revenue streams have all continued to grow over the years. This is a commendable feat and an enviable position to be in.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/44d14b4467c4d87ffa64fe2f60f01bb1\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"672\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>BusinessQuant.com</p><p>However, there are now several risks associated with investing in Alibaba, namely decelerating revenue growth, the risk of getting delisted from US exchanges and its relatively pricey valuations in general. So, risk-averse investors may want to avoid investing in Alibaba for the time being at least. The stock seems tempting at current levels, but it&#39;s rife with issues.</p></body></html>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Alibaba: More Bad News</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nAlibaba: More Bad News\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2022-08-11 23:32 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://seekingalpha.com/article/4532407-alibaba-more-bad-news?source=content_type%3Aall%7Cfirst_level_url%3Aportfolio%7Csection%3Aportfolio_content_unit%7Csection_asset%3Alatest%7Cline%3A3><strong>Seeking Alpha</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>SummaryAlibaba's shares are trading at seemingly attractive valuation multiples but investors shouldn't fall into the trap.Prospects for investing in Alibaba have significantly deteriorated in recent ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4532407-alibaba-more-bad-news?source=content_type%3Aall%7Cfirst_level_url%3Aportfolio%7Csection%3Aportfolio_content_unit%7Csection_asset%3Alatest%7Cline%3A3\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4532407-alibaba-more-bad-news?source=content_type%3Aall%7Cfirst_level_url%3Aportfolio%7Csection%3Aportfolio_content_unit%7Csection_asset%3Alatest%7Cline%3A3","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1103823286","content_text":"SummaryAlibaba's shares are trading at seemingly attractive valuation multiples but investors shouldn't fall into the trap.Prospects for investing in Alibaba have significantly deteriorated in recent weeks.Risk-averse investors may want to avoid the stock for the time being.Alibaba's (NYSE:BABA) (OTCPK:BABAF) shares are down over 50% in the last year and many investors are getting tempted to buy. The general rationale is that the stock has fallen enough already and that it should only rally on from here on out. While that might have been a compelling contrarian argument till a few weeks ago, it's now rife with problems, speculation and stretched assumptions. In this article, I'll explain why investors may want to avoid the value trap that Alibaba is gradually turning out to be. Let's take a closer look at it all.The Valuation MisconceptionLet me start by saying that Alibaba's shares are trading at just 2.1-times its trailing twelve-month sales. This is quite low, especially when considering that the stock used to trade at over 24-times its sales back in 2015. Given this steep discount compared to its own prior levels, contrarian investors have been arguing that the stock is attractively valued and that it doesn't have much downside potential left from current levels.While that sounds like a compelling argument, the problem here is that industry comparables are trading at even more attractive multiples. The chart below should put things in perspective. The X-axis plots the Price-to-Sales (or P/S) multiples for over 25 internet retail stocks that are listed on US bourses. Note how Alibaba is horizontally positioned slightly towards the right, indicating that its trading at levels that are marginally higher than the industry average.BusinessQuant.comNow, let's shift attention to the Y-axis, which plots the revenue growth rates for the same set of companies. Note how Alibaba is vertically positioned much lower than a broad swath of its other listed peers. This suggests that the stock is valued slightly higher than the industry average but its revenue growth rate is lower than most its peers in general. This implies that Alibaba's shares have room to correct further, in order to justify its subpar growth rate.There are at least 14 other stocks classified in the internet retail industry, that are growing faster than Alibaba but trading at lower P/S multiples. This disparity is all the more prominent when we consider that Alibaba's US-listed shares offer an ownership only in a shell company floated in Cayman Islands, whereas its other attractively-priced US-based peers offer ownership in actual companies. Because of this difference in the nature of securities, Alibaba's shares should ideally be trading at a discount compared to its US-based peers in the first place, but it's actually trading at a slight premium instead. This should encourage contrarian investors to reconsider their thesis for the e-commerce giant.The Growth SlowdownMoving on, the Chinese government hasn't hiked its interest rates in recent months, unlike the US. This suggests the Chinese economy will continue growing at a relatively faster pace and companies operating there should, at least in theory, thrive while other global economies stagnate and/or go into recession. This industry tailwind should indeed boost Alibaba's growth prospects and it's admittedly a silver lining in the whole contrarian narrative.But there's a problem here as well. Hindering consumer spending in Q3 may trigger a more profound slowdown for Alibaba and other similarly positioned Chinese e-commerce companies, negating the positives of low interest rates in the country. This is gradually reflected in the Street's forecasts - note how analysts have been gradually lowering their revenue estimates for the company in nearly every passing week.YchartsThis situation should again encourage investors to rethink their rationale for Alibaba.The Delisting RiskLastly, contrarian investors are hopeful that delisting fears pertaining to Alibaba are exaggerated and not really a matter of concern. However, the risk is very real. The SEC published a yet another list about 10 days ago, noting that Alibaba and 270 other Chinese companies will be forcefully delisted from US bourses if they don't open up for audit inspections.Chinese regulators had reassured investors earlier this year that they're going to work with the SEC and comply with their audit requirements, in order to prevent mass delisting of Chinese stocks from US bourses. But I've been warning investors that the regulators haven't been making any progress and the risk remains. The prospect of such progress seems even more unlikely now.One might argue that Alibaba is listed on Hong Kong bourses so a delisting in the US won't make a difference. But it will. The prospect of Alibaba's shares getting delisted in the US, is likely to prompt a mass selloff by institutional investors that have mandates to invest in only US stocks. Besides, the financial cost of owning Hong Kong-listed stocks is far higher for US citizens, so retail investors are likely to sell their shares too in large numbers.Moreover, it's not like Hong Kong-listed shares have been performing any better than their US-listed shares. Both the stocks have continuously declined for the better part of the past year and I expect the downtrend to continue in Hong Kong listed shares going forward as well, given the deteriorating growth prospects for Alibaba as a company and its stretched valuation in general.Yahoo FinanceFinal ThoughtsThere's no denying that Alibaba has grown its top line at a rapid rate in the past decade. The company has expanded its operations over time and its different revenue streams have all continued to grow over the years. This is a commendable feat and an enviable position to be in.BusinessQuant.comHowever, there are now several risks associated with investing in Alibaba, namely decelerating revenue growth, the risk of getting delisted from US exchanges and its relatively pricey valuations in general. So, risk-averse investors may want to avoid investing in Alibaba for the time being at least. The stock seems tempting at current levels, but it's rife with issues.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":246,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9907215662,"gmtCreate":1660195877958,"gmtModify":1703479003660,"author":{"id":"3565161371430593","authorId":"3565161371430593","name":"KFFun","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":3,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3565161371430593","authorIdStr":"3565161371430593"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Okay","listText":"Okay","text":"Okay","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":6,"commentSize":2,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9907215662","repostId":"2258825225","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":274,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9902092080,"gmtCreate":1659607502844,"gmtModify":1705982110859,"author":{"id":"3565161371430593","authorId":"3565161371430593","name":"KFFun","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":3,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3565161371430593","authorIdStr":"3565161371430593"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Ok","listText":"Ok","text":"Ok","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":6,"commentSize":2,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9902092080","repostId":"1179498912","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1179498912","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1659602770,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1179498912?lang=&edition=full_marsco","pubTime":"2022-08-04 16:46","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Alibaba, AMTD, AMC, Block And More: U.S. Stocks To Watch","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1179498912","media":"Benzinga","summary":"With US stock futures trading slightly lower this morning on Thursday ahead of earnings reports from","content":"<html><head></head><body><p>With US stock futures trading slightly lower this morning on Thursday ahead of earnings reports from several big companies, some of the stocks that may grab investor focus today are as follows:</p><ul><li><b><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BABA\">Alibaba</a>‘s</b> revenue stood at 205.56 billion yuan, net income attributable to ordinary shareholders for the quarter ended June 30 was 22.74 billion yuan. Shares rose over 5% in premarket trading.</li><li><b><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AMTD\">AMTD International</a></b> slid over 20% in Premarket Trading. Billionaire Li Ka-shing’s CK Group is selling the remaining stake in it. Its branch <b><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/HKD\">AMTD Digital Inc.</a></b> was the fifth-biggest financial company in the world, trailing Berkshire Hathaway Inc., JPMorgan Chase &amp; Co., Bank of America Corp. and Industrial &amp; Commercial Bank of China Ltd.</li><li><b><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AMC\">AMC Entertainment</a></b> is scheduled to announce Q2 earnings results on Thursday, August 4th, after market close. The consensus EPS Estimate is -$0.23 (+67.9% Y/Y) and the consensus Revenue Estimate is $1.18B (+166.3% Y/Y). Stocks rose over 3% in premarket trading.</li><li><b><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/EBAY\">eBay</a></b> reported upbeat earnings and sales results for its second quarter on Wednesday. The company also said it sees full fiscal year revenue coming in a range of $9.6 billion to $9.9 billion versus a Street estimate of $9.68 billion. Full-year earnings per share are guided for a range of $3.95 to $4.10 versus a Street estimate of $3.98. eBay shares rose 0.6% to $50.79 in the after-hours trading session.</li><li>Analysts are expecting <b><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/LLY\">Eli Lilly and</a></b> to have earned $1.69 per share on revenue of $6.70 billion for the latest quarter. The company will release earnings before the markets open. Eli Lilly shares fell 0.9% to $311.12 in after-hours trading.</li></ul><ul><li><b><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BKNG\">Booking Holdings</a></b> reported better-than-expected earnings for its second quarter. Although revenue nearly doubled year-over-year to $4.29 billion, but it still missed the consensus of $4.33 billion. Booking shares dropped 3.3% to $1,901.20 in the after-hours trading session.</li><li>Analysts expect <b><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/SQ\">Block</a></b> to report quarterly earnings at $0.17 per share on revenue of $4.35 billion after the closing bell. Block shares gained 0.3% to $88.30 in after-hours trading.</li></ul></body></html>","source":"lsy1606299360108","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Alibaba, AMTD, AMC, Block And More: U.S. Stocks To Watch</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nAlibaba, AMTD, AMC, Block And More: U.S. Stocks To Watch\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2022-08-04 16:46 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://www.benzinga.com/news/earnings/22/08/28348058/alibaba-eli-lilly-and-3-stocks-to-watch-heading-into-thursday><strong>Benzinga</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>With US stock futures trading slightly lower this morning on Thursday ahead of earnings reports from several big companies, some of the stocks that may grab investor focus today are as follows:Alibaba...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://www.benzinga.com/news/earnings/22/08/28348058/alibaba-eli-lilly-and-3-stocks-to-watch-heading-into-thursday\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"EBAY":"eBay","BKNG":"Booking Holdings","BABA":"阿里巴巴","LLY":"礼来","AMTD":"Amtd Idea","HKD":"尚乘数科","AMC":"AMC院线"},"source_url":"https://www.benzinga.com/news/earnings/22/08/28348058/alibaba-eli-lilly-and-3-stocks-to-watch-heading-into-thursday","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1179498912","content_text":"With US stock futures trading slightly lower this morning on Thursday ahead of earnings reports from several big companies, some of the stocks that may grab investor focus today are as follows:Alibaba‘s revenue stood at 205.56 billion yuan, net income attributable to ordinary shareholders for the quarter ended June 30 was 22.74 billion yuan. Shares rose over 5% in premarket trading.AMTD International slid over 20% in Premarket Trading. Billionaire Li Ka-shing’s CK Group is selling the remaining stake in it. Its branch AMTD Digital Inc. was the fifth-biggest financial company in the world, trailing Berkshire Hathaway Inc., JPMorgan Chase & Co., Bank of America Corp. and Industrial & Commercial Bank of China Ltd.AMC Entertainment is scheduled to announce Q2 earnings results on Thursday, August 4th, after market close. The consensus EPS Estimate is -$0.23 (+67.9% Y/Y) and the consensus Revenue Estimate is $1.18B (+166.3% Y/Y). Stocks rose over 3% in premarket trading.eBay reported upbeat earnings and sales results for its second quarter on Wednesday. The company also said it sees full fiscal year revenue coming in a range of $9.6 billion to $9.9 billion versus a Street estimate of $9.68 billion. Full-year earnings per share are guided for a range of $3.95 to $4.10 versus a Street estimate of $3.98. eBay shares rose 0.6% to $50.79 in the after-hours trading session.Analysts are expecting Eli Lilly and to have earned $1.69 per share on revenue of $6.70 billion for the latest quarter. The company will release earnings before the markets open. Eli Lilly shares fell 0.9% to $311.12 in after-hours trading.Booking Holdings reported better-than-expected earnings for its second quarter. Although revenue nearly doubled year-over-year to $4.29 billion, but it still missed the consensus of $4.33 billion. Booking shares dropped 3.3% to $1,901.20 in the after-hours trading session.Analysts expect Block to report quarterly earnings at $0.17 per share on revenue of $4.35 billion after the closing bell. Block shares gained 0.3% to $88.30 in after-hours trading.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":293,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9908735154,"gmtCreate":1659435401780,"gmtModify":1705980330790,"author":{"id":"3565161371430593","authorId":"3565161371430593","name":"KFFun","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":3,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3565161371430593","authorIdStr":"3565161371430593"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Ok","listText":"Ok","text":"Ok","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":6,"commentSize":2,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9908735154","repostId":"2256654277","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"2256654277","kind":"highlight","pubTimestamp":1659454665,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/2256654277?lang=&edition=full_marsco","pubTime":"2022-08-02 23:37","market":"us","language":"en","title":"3 Stocks to Avoid This Week","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2256654277","media":"Motley Fool","summary":"These investments seem pretty vulnerable right now.","content":"<html><head></head><body><p>Things roughly worked out for my &#34;three stocks to avoid&#34; column last week. The three stocks I thought were going to lose to the market for the week -- <b>Shopify</b>, <b>Fat Brands</b>, and <b>Tesla Motors</b> -- declined 7%, rose 1%, and surged 9%, respectively, averaging out to a 1% increase.</p><p>The <b>S&amp;P 500</b> experienced a 4.3% move higher. I was correct, as the average return of the three of the investments I figured would fare worse fell short. I have now been right in 27 of the past 41 weeks.</p><p>Where do I go to next? I see <b><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/W\">Wayfair</a></b>, <b>TrueCar</b>, and <b>Tesla Motors</b> as stocks you may want to consider steering clear of this week. Let&#39;s go over my near-term concerns with all three investments.</p><h2><b>Wayfair</b></h2><p>One of the market&#39;s big winners during the early stages of the COVID-19 crisis has buckled like a flimsy sofa. Wayfair was a market darling when we were hunkering down at the start of the pandemic. We were going to spend a lot of time at home, so we were turning to the online retailer of furniture and other home essentials to get as comfortable as possible. A lot of folks also moved to the suburbs to get more bang for their real estate buck, and those new digs needed new pieces of furniture to make the house a home.</p><p>It&#39;s a whole new world for Wayfair. Revenue growth has been negative for four consecutive quarters. The bottom line is getting worse. In just the last three months we&#39;ve seen Wall Street estimates for losses more than double for 2022 and almost quadruple come next year. The new shift to enter physical retail won&#39;t be cheap. With sales expected to decline this year and profitability nowhere in sight it&#39;s hard to get excited about Wayfair despite its brand awareness and cool digital tools like letting shoppers use augmented reality to see what a potential purchase would look like in their actual room. Wayfair reports quarterly results on Thursday morning. The market&#39;s already bracing for a bad report, but sometimes that&#39;s not enough.</p><h2><b>TrueCar</b></h2><p>The online lead generator for auto showrooms has been up on blocks lately. Revenue is going the wrong way. Losses are mounting. It has posted larger-than-expected deficits in back-to-back quarters. Analyst forecasts for red ink continue to grow. It&#39;s against this uninspiring backdrop that TrueCar reports its second-quarter financial results on Tuesday afternoon.</p><p>TrueCar has run into a few speed bumps over the years. It has had to tweak its original shopper-friendly model to appeal to both buyers and showroom dealers, and that&#39;s a delicate balance. This is also a rough time to be selling vehicles with high gas prices and lean inventory for the hotter cars. The stock has shed nearly 90% of its value since peaking eight years ago, and it&#39;s hard to say that it isn&#39;t a lemon these days.</p><h2><b>Tesla Motors</b></h2><p>This is the third week in a row that Tesla Motors makes the cut. I was wrong the last two weeks. Is the third time the charm or the harm? The stock has risen this month despite a far from perfect quarterly update and a whirlwind of controversies and distractions.</p><p>Tesla has outpaced the market the last two weeks as a high-beta stock on cruise control in a rising market. The stock&#39;s steep valuation seems immune to weakness in the general automotive market, and rising gas prices are naturally an incentive to go electric. After two weeks of big moves, I feel it&#39;s time for Tesla Motors to pull off the road and recharge. We&#39;ll see if I get burned again.</p><p>It&#39;s going to be a bumpy road for some of these investments. If you&#39;re looking for safe stocks, you aren&#39;t likely to find them in Wayfair, TrueCar and Tesla Motors this week.</p></body></html>","source":"fool_stock","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>3 Stocks to Avoid This Week</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n3 Stocks to Avoid This Week\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2022-08-02 23:37 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://www.fool.com/investing/2022/08/01/3-stocks-to-avoid-this-week/><strong>Motley Fool</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>Things roughly worked out for my \"three stocks to avoid\" column last week. The three stocks I thought were going to lose to the market for the week -- Shopify, Fat Brands, and Tesla Motors -- declined...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://www.fool.com/investing/2022/08/01/3-stocks-to-avoid-this-week/\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"W":"Wayfair","TSLA":"特斯拉","TRUE":"TrueCar, Inc."},"source_url":"https://www.fool.com/investing/2022/08/01/3-stocks-to-avoid-this-week/","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2256654277","content_text":"Things roughly worked out for my \"three stocks to avoid\" column last week. The three stocks I thought were going to lose to the market for the week -- Shopify, Fat Brands, and Tesla Motors -- declined 7%, rose 1%, and surged 9%, respectively, averaging out to a 1% increase.The S&P 500 experienced a 4.3% move higher. I was correct, as the average return of the three of the investments I figured would fare worse fell short. I have now been right in 27 of the past 41 weeks.Where do I go to next? I see Wayfair, TrueCar, and Tesla Motors as stocks you may want to consider steering clear of this week. Let's go over my near-term concerns with all three investments.WayfairOne of the market's big winners during the early stages of the COVID-19 crisis has buckled like a flimsy sofa. Wayfair was a market darling when we were hunkering down at the start of the pandemic. We were going to spend a lot of time at home, so we were turning to the online retailer of furniture and other home essentials to get as comfortable as possible. A lot of folks also moved to the suburbs to get more bang for their real estate buck, and those new digs needed new pieces of furniture to make the house a home.It's a whole new world for Wayfair. Revenue growth has been negative for four consecutive quarters. The bottom line is getting worse. In just the last three months we've seen Wall Street estimates for losses more than double for 2022 and almost quadruple come next year. The new shift to enter physical retail won't be cheap. With sales expected to decline this year and profitability nowhere in sight it's hard to get excited about Wayfair despite its brand awareness and cool digital tools like letting shoppers use augmented reality to see what a potential purchase would look like in their actual room. Wayfair reports quarterly results on Thursday morning. The market's already bracing for a bad report, but sometimes that's not enough.TrueCarThe online lead generator for auto showrooms has been up on blocks lately. Revenue is going the wrong way. Losses are mounting. It has posted larger-than-expected deficits in back-to-back quarters. Analyst forecasts for red ink continue to grow. It's against this uninspiring backdrop that TrueCar reports its second-quarter financial results on Tuesday afternoon.TrueCar has run into a few speed bumps over the years. It has had to tweak its original shopper-friendly model to appeal to both buyers and showroom dealers, and that's a delicate balance. This is also a rough time to be selling vehicles with high gas prices and lean inventory for the hotter cars. The stock has shed nearly 90% of its value since peaking eight years ago, and it's hard to say that it isn't a lemon these days.Tesla MotorsThis is the third week in a row that Tesla Motors makes the cut. I was wrong the last two weeks. Is the third time the charm or the harm? The stock has risen this month despite a far from perfect quarterly update and a whirlwind of controversies and distractions.Tesla has outpaced the market the last two weeks as a high-beta stock on cruise control in a rising market. The stock's steep valuation seems immune to weakness in the general automotive market, and rising gas prices are naturally an incentive to go electric. After two weeks of big moves, I feel it's time for Tesla Motors to pull off the road and recharge. We'll see if I get burned again.It's going to be a bumpy road for some of these investments. If you're looking for safe stocks, you aren't likely to find them in Wayfair, TrueCar and Tesla Motors this week.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":202,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9070937183,"gmtCreate":1656992305542,"gmtModify":1676535929132,"author":{"id":"3565161371430593","authorId":"3565161371430593","name":"KFFun","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":3,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3565161371430593","authorIdStr":"3565161371430593"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Ok","listText":"Ok","text":"Ok","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":6,"commentSize":2,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9070937183","repostId":"2248731460","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":364,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0}],"lives":[]}