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2021-05-25
ZanZan
luz
2021-05-25
Zan
How does the RMB exchange rate hit a new high in the past three years affect the stock and bond market?
luz
2021-05-25
Zan
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On May 25th, the central parity of RMB against the US dollar was reported at 6.4283, an increase of 125 basis points; The offshore RMB exchange rate against the US dollar rose above the 6.40 mark in the day, and the onshore RMB exchange rate against the US dollar once reached 6.4016, both hitting new highs in the past three years.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3802973516e3b3f61c8157451f39713a\" tg-width=\"796\" tg-height=\"1125\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/bf8175bd00636290f456e52491857015\" tg-width=\"796\" tg-height=\"957\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><b>The logic of RMB appreciation</b></p><p>As for the reasons for the recent appreciation of RMB exchange rate,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/601328\">Bank of Communications</a>Tang Jianwei, chief researcher of the Financial Research Center, believes that the obvious fluctuation of the US Dollar Index caused by the COVID-19 epidemic is the main reason for the two-way fluctuation of RMB exchange rate against the US dollar; The difference in economic growth performance between China and the United States is the fundamental factor behind exchange rate fluctuations; The difference of monetary policy direction and strength between China and the United States leads to the fluctuation of interest rate spread between China and the United States, which is the policy factor of exchange rate fluctuation.</p><p>Talking about the future trend of RMB exchange rate, Tang Jianwei said that it is expected that the RMB exchange rate will still maintain the characteristics of two-way fluctuation this year, continuing the trend of steady and slightly rising, and the annual exchange rate appreciation is expected to be significantly smaller than that in 2020.</p><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/600030\">CITIC Securities</a>Ming Ming, deputy director of the institute, believes that with the strengthening of China's own economic strength, the internationalization of RMB and the continuous opening of financial markets, the two-way fluctuation characteristics of RMB exchange rate will be strengthened, and the RMB exchange rate will become more market-oriented. The exchange rate of RMB still has strong momentum, and the exchange rate of US dollar against RMB has fallen or touched 6.2.</p><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/601818\">Everbright Bank</a>Zhou Maohua, a financial market analyst, believes that the short-term fluctuation of RMB is mainly affected by the violent fluctuation of the US dollar and other currencies. Due to the repeated global epidemic, the fluctuation of overseas economic recovery, and the differentiation of policies, the market and the Fed's policy outlook are different, and the market fluctuation is still violent; However, the trend of RMB exchange rate is in line with the fundamentals, the market expects to be stable as a whole, and the RMB exchange rate is flexible. From the perspective of internal and external macroeconomic and policy trends, the RMB exchange rate will not show a unilateral trend of strengthening, and it is expected to show a strong two-way fluctuation pattern near the equilibrium level.</p><p>CCB International said that in the first quarter, the US dollar strengthened due to interest rate spreads, and the exchange rate of RMB against the US dollar depreciated. However, the Fed's zero interest rate maintenance, combined with the rise of federal debt and inflation expectations under fiscal expansion, still has a negative impact on the US dollar. It is expected that the dollar will remain in the weak range, and interest rate movements will increase the volatility of the dollar. Maintain the judgment that the RMB exchange rate will appreciate slightly in the next two years. It is expected that the pace of appreciation will slow down and two-way fluctuations will continue.</p><p><b>Impact of A Shares: Five Major Industries Benefit the Most</b></p><p>In the stock market, the appreciation of RMB is conducive to capital inflows. The background of the appreciation of RMB exchange rate mainly lies in the poor economic expectations between China and the United States. Under the expectation of strong Chinese economy, foreign capital flows in, while corporate profit growth recovers, and currency liquidity is beneficial to the domestic stock market.</p><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/601688\">Huatai Securities</a>It said that in 2020, foreign investors will actively increase their holdings of domestic equity assets. In the absence of passive funds brought by the inclusion of the index, foreign investors actively increased their holdings of domestic equity assets by US$64.1 billion in 2020, of which an increase of US$43.7 billion in the fourth quarter.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f3d032d17feb7c9cd9b88bbdbb1dda6b\" tg-width=\"796\" tg-height=\"597\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>In terms of industry, the foreign exchange liability industry will directly benefit from the appreciation of RMB, especially US dollar liabilities, and the depreciation of US dollar will cause one-time exchange gains.</p><p>Wind statistics show that in 2020, the total USD borrowings of all A-share listed companies amounted to about 911.6 billion yuan (airlines including lease liabilities), accounting for 5.94% of the total A-share borrowings.</p><p>In terms of industries, there are five industries where US dollar borrowings account for more than 10% of all borrowings, namely aviation, electronics, communication, mining, agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry and fishery.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/43cc8c1eff54c3238d5841f47dd5543b\" tg-width=\"615\" tg-height=\"719\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>For the aviation industry,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/002673\">Western Securities</a>It is believed that airlines bear more foreign currency liabilities due to the purchase of aircraft materials, and their debt repayment pressure will be reduced in the process of RMB appreciation. In addition, with the advent of the COVID-19 vaccine in the future, global exchanges will return to pre-epidemic levels, and the increase in international business travel demand will bring significant performance repair to airlines. In addition, the appreciation of RMB can also improve residents' purchasing power, superimposing the previous consumption suppression affected by the epidemic. Once the overseas epidemic eases, overseas tourism is expected to usher in a significant growth, and related industries such as aviation, airports and tourism will benefit significantly.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/170e814640f732939bb52a41cbaa38c3\" tg-width=\"657\" tg-height=\"357\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><b>Impact of RMB appreciation on bond market</b></p><p>In terms of Treasury Bond yields, the appreciation of RMB often corresponds to the strength of bond yields.</p><p>The relationship between exchange rate and interest rate is mainly linked by capital flow and risk sentiment:</p><p>1) High interest rates attract cross-border capital inflows and the RMB exchange rate appreciates. According to the data, in 2020, overseas institutions purchased a total of US$190.5 billion in domestic bond assets, the highest scale in history, with a year-on-year growth rate of 85.9%. Against the backdrop of negative global real interest rates, RMB bonds that provide higher positive returns are sought after by global investments.</p><p>2) At the same time, high interest rates can easily suppress consumption and investment, resulting in current account surplus, oversupply of foreign exchange and appreciation of RMB.</p><p>3) The RMB exchange rate continues to appreciate, cross-border funds continue to flow in, and the money supply increases, causing downward pressure on interest rates. Of course, at present, when the RMB capital account is not fully opened, the cross-border capital inflow has very little impact on interest rates, basically the interest rates affect the exchange rates.</p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>How does the RMB exchange rate hit a new high in the past three years affect the stock and bond market?</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nHow does the RMB exchange rate hit a new high in the past three years affect the stock and bond market?\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/99\">\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/c71e30d1317b4a5cb20a41998e10ac68);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">Wind万得 </p>\n<p class=\"h-time smaller\">2021-05-25 17:14</p>\n</div>\n</a>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>Recently, the the US Dollar Index has been weakening, and the exchange rate of RMB against the US dollar has gradually appreciated. On May 25th, the central parity of RMB against the US dollar was reported at 6.4283, an increase of 125 basis points; The offshore RMB exchange rate against the US dollar rose above the 6.40 mark in the day, and the onshore RMB exchange rate against the US dollar once reached 6.4016, both hitting new highs in the past three years.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3802973516e3b3f61c8157451f39713a\" tg-width=\"796\" tg-height=\"1125\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/bf8175bd00636290f456e52491857015\" tg-width=\"796\" tg-height=\"957\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><b>The logic of RMB appreciation</b></p><p>As for the reasons for the recent appreciation of RMB exchange rate,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/601328\">Bank of Communications</a>Tang Jianwei, chief researcher of the Financial Research Center, believes that the obvious fluctuation of the US Dollar Index caused by the COVID-19 epidemic is the main reason for the two-way fluctuation of RMB exchange rate against the US dollar; The difference in economic growth performance between China and the United States is the fundamental factor behind exchange rate fluctuations; The difference of monetary policy direction and strength between China and the United States leads to the fluctuation of interest rate spread between China and the United States, which is the policy factor of exchange rate fluctuation.</p><p>Talking about the future trend of RMB exchange rate, Tang Jianwei said that it is expected that the RMB exchange rate will still maintain the characteristics of two-way fluctuation this year, continuing the trend of steady and slightly rising, and the annual exchange rate appreciation is expected to be significantly smaller than that in 2020.</p><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/600030\">CITIC Securities</a>Ming Ming, deputy director of the institute, believes that with the strengthening of China's own economic strength, the internationalization of RMB and the continuous opening of financial markets, the two-way fluctuation characteristics of RMB exchange rate will be strengthened, and the RMB exchange rate will become more market-oriented. The exchange rate of RMB still has strong momentum, and the exchange rate of US dollar against RMB has fallen or touched 6.2.</p><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/601818\">Everbright Bank</a>Zhou Maohua, a financial market analyst, believes that the short-term fluctuation of RMB is mainly affected by the violent fluctuation of the US dollar and other currencies. Due to the repeated global epidemic, the fluctuation of overseas economic recovery, and the differentiation of policies, the market and the Fed's policy outlook are different, and the market fluctuation is still violent; However, the trend of RMB exchange rate is in line with the fundamentals, the market expects to be stable as a whole, and the RMB exchange rate is flexible. From the perspective of internal and external macroeconomic and policy trends, the RMB exchange rate will not show a unilateral trend of strengthening, and it is expected to show a strong two-way fluctuation pattern near the equilibrium level.</p><p>CCB International said that in the first quarter, the US dollar strengthened due to interest rate spreads, and the exchange rate of RMB against the US dollar depreciated. However, the Fed's zero interest rate maintenance, combined with the rise of federal debt and inflation expectations under fiscal expansion, still has a negative impact on the US dollar. It is expected that the dollar will remain in the weak range, and interest rate movements will increase the volatility of the dollar. Maintain the judgment that the RMB exchange rate will appreciate slightly in the next two years. It is expected that the pace of appreciation will slow down and two-way fluctuations will continue.</p><p><b>Impact of A Shares: Five Major Industries Benefit the Most</b></p><p>In the stock market, the appreciation of RMB is conducive to capital inflows. The background of the appreciation of RMB exchange rate mainly lies in the poor economic expectations between China and the United States. Under the expectation of strong Chinese economy, foreign capital flows in, while corporate profit growth recovers, and currency liquidity is beneficial to the domestic stock market.</p><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/601688\">Huatai Securities</a>It said that in 2020, foreign investors will actively increase their holdings of domestic equity assets. In the absence of passive funds brought by the inclusion of the index, foreign investors actively increased their holdings of domestic equity assets by US$64.1 billion in 2020, of which an increase of US$43.7 billion in the fourth quarter.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f3d032d17feb7c9cd9b88bbdbb1dda6b\" tg-width=\"796\" tg-height=\"597\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>In terms of industry, the foreign exchange liability industry will directly benefit from the appreciation of RMB, especially US dollar liabilities, and the depreciation of US dollar will cause one-time exchange gains.</p><p>Wind statistics show that in 2020, the total USD borrowings of all A-share listed companies amounted to about 911.6 billion yuan (airlines including lease liabilities), accounting for 5.94% of the total A-share borrowings.</p><p>In terms of industries, there are five industries where US dollar borrowings account for more than 10% of all borrowings, namely aviation, electronics, communication, mining, agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry and fishery.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/43cc8c1eff54c3238d5841f47dd5543b\" tg-width=\"615\" tg-height=\"719\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>For the aviation industry,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/002673\">Western Securities</a>It is believed that airlines bear more foreign currency liabilities due to the purchase of aircraft materials, and their debt repayment pressure will be reduced in the process of RMB appreciation. In addition, with the advent of the COVID-19 vaccine in the future, global exchanges will return to pre-epidemic levels, and the increase in international business travel demand will bring significant performance repair to airlines. In addition, the appreciation of RMB can also improve residents' purchasing power, superimposing the previous consumption suppression affected by the epidemic. Once the overseas epidemic eases, overseas tourism is expected to usher in a significant growth, and related industries such as aviation, airports and tourism will benefit significantly.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/170e814640f732939bb52a41cbaa38c3\" tg-width=\"657\" tg-height=\"357\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><b>Impact of RMB appreciation on bond market</b></p><p>In terms of Treasury Bond yields, the appreciation of RMB often corresponds to the strength of bond yields.</p><p>The relationship between exchange rate and interest rate is mainly linked by capital flow and risk sentiment:</p><p>1) High interest rates attract cross-border capital inflows and the RMB exchange rate appreciates. According to the data, in 2020, overseas institutions purchased a total of US$190.5 billion in domestic bond assets, the highest scale in history, with a year-on-year growth rate of 85.9%. Against the backdrop of negative global real interest rates, RMB bonds that provide higher positive returns are sought after by global investments.</p><p>2) At the same time, high interest rates can easily suppress consumption and investment, resulting in current account surplus, oversupply of foreign exchange and appreciation of RMB.</p><p>3) The RMB exchange rate continues to appreciate, cross-border funds continue to flow in, and the money supply increases, causing downward pressure on interest rates. Of course, at present, when the RMB capital account is not fully opened, the cross-border capital inflow has very little impact on interest rates, basically the interest rates affect the exchange rates.</p>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5d8fb95e65f042f352c6313989391357","relate_stocks":{"399001":"深证成指","399006":"创业板指","03141":"华夏亚投债","000001.SH":"上证指数","09141":"华夏亚投债-U","CYB":"人民币ETF-WisdomTree Dreyfus"},"is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1130612289","content_text":"近期美元指数不断走弱，人民币对美元汇率逐步升值。5月25日，人民币兑美元中间价报6.4283，调升125个基点；离岸人民币对美元汇率日内升穿6.40关口，在岸人民币对美元汇率一度探至6.4016，均创出近三年以来新高。\n\n人民币升值的逻辑\n对于近期人民币汇率升值的原因，交通银行金融研究中心首席研究员唐建伟认为，新冠肺炎疫情导致美元指数出现明显波动是人民币兑美元汇率双向波动的主因；中美两国经济增速表现的差异是汇率波动背后的基本面因素；中美两国货币政策方向及力度的差异，导致中美利差波动则是汇率波动的政策面因素。\n谈及未来人民币汇率走势，唐建伟表示，预计今年人民币汇率仍将保持双向波动特征，延续稳中略升的趋势，全年汇率升值幅度预计将明显小于2020年。\n中信证券研究所副所长明明认为，随着中国自身经济实力的增强，人民币国际化以及金融市场持续开放，人民币汇率双向波动特征将有所加强，人民币汇率将更加市场化。人民币汇率仍具备走强动能，美元兑人民币汇率向下或触及6.2。\n光大银行金融市场分析师周茂华认为，短期人民币波动主要是受到美元及其他货币剧烈波动影响，由于全球疫情反复、海外经济复苏波动，政策分化，市场与美联储政策展望存在分歧，市场波动仍偏剧烈；但人民币汇率走势与基本面相符，市场预期整体稳定，人民币汇率弹性足。从内外宏观经济、政策走势看，人民币汇率不会出现单边趋势走强，有望在均衡水平附近呈现强势双向波动格局。\n建银国际表示，一季度受利差支持美元走强，人民币兑美元汇率有所贬值。但联储维持零息，叠加财政扩张下联邦债务和通胀预期上升，对美元仍有负面影响。预计美元仍在弱势区间，利率走势则增加美元波动。维持人民币汇率未来两年小幅升值的判断。预计升值步伐趋缓，双向波动持续。\nA股影响：五大行业最受益\n股市方面，人民币升值有利于资金流入。人民币汇率升值背景主要在于中美经济预期差，在中国经济偏强预期下，外资流入，同时企业利润增长恢复，货币流动性对国内股市有利。\n华泰证券表示，2020年外资主动增持境内股权资产。在无指数纳入带来被动资金的情况下，2020年全年外资主动增持641亿美元的境内股权资产，其中4季度增幅达437亿美元。\n\n行业方面，外汇负债类行业将直接受益人民币升值，尤其是美元负债，美元贬值会造成一次性的汇兑收益。\nWind数据统计显示，2020年，A股所有上市公司美元借款合计约9116亿元（航空公司包括租赁负债），占A股总借款5.94%。\n分行业看，美元借款占全部借款比例超过10%的有5个行业，分别为航空、电子、通信、采掘和农林牧渔。\n\n对于航空业，西部证券认为，航空公司由于采购飞机航材而承担较多外币负债，其偿债压力将会在人民币升值过程中得到降低。此外，随着未来新冠疫苗问世，全球交流将恢复至疫前水平，国际间商旅需求的增加将为航空公司带来显着业绩修复。此外人民币升值也能够提高居民购买力，叠加此前受疫情影响的消费抑制，一旦海外疫情缓解，境外旅游将有望迎来显着增长，航空、机场及旅游等相关行业将显着受益。\n\n人民币升值对债市影响\n国债收益率方面，人民币升值往往对应债券收益率走强。\n汇率与利率的关系主要受资本流动和风险情绪形成联动：\n1） 高利率吸引跨境资本流入，人民币汇率升值。数据显示，2020 年全年境外机构共购买 1905亿美元的境内债券资产，规模创历年之最，同比增速达 85.9%。在全球真实利率转负的背景下，提供较高正回报的人民币债券受到全球投资的追捧。\n2） 同时高利率容易压制消费与投资，造成经常账户顺差，外汇供过于求，人民币升值。\n3）人民币汇率持续升值，跨境资金持续流入，货币供应增加，造成利率下行压力，当然在当前人民币资本账户没有完全开放情况下，跨境资金流入对利率影响非常小，基本上是利率影响汇率。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"399001":0.9,"399006":0.9,"03141":0.9,"CNHmain":0.9,"UCmain":0.9,"09141":0.9,"CYB":0.9,"000001.SH":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1854,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":138681140,"gmtCreate":1621934165880,"gmtModify":1704364695765,"author":{"id":"3570107294783292","authorId":"3570107294783292","name":"luz","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3570107294783292","authorIdStr":"3570107294783292"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Zan","listText":"Zan","text":"Zan","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/138681140","repostId":"1119328389","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2201,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0}],"hots":[{"id":138688572,"gmtCreate":1621934296496,"gmtModify":1704364698517,"author":{"id":"3570107294783292","authorId":"3570107294783292","name":"luz","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3570107294783292","authorIdStr":"3570107294783292"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"ZanZan","listText":"ZanZan","text":"ZanZan","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5568ca435126bdaa56f8abe724f2e147","width":"1440","height":"3761"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/138688572","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1417,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":138681676,"gmtCreate":1621934193195,"gmtModify":1704364696090,"author":{"id":"3570107294783292","authorId":"3570107294783292","name":"luz","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3570107294783292","authorIdStr":"3570107294783292"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Zan","listText":"Zan","text":"Zan","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/138681676","repostId":"1130612289","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1130612289","kind":"news","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"中国大陆领先的金融数据、信息和软件服务企业，总部位于上海陆家嘴金融中心。","home_visible":1,"media_name":"Wind万得","id":"99","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c71e30d1317b4a5cb20a41998e10ac68"},"pubTimestamp":1621934098,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1130612289?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2021-05-25 17:14","market":"sh","language":"zh","title":"How does the RMB exchange rate hit a new high in the past three years affect the stock and bond market?","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1130612289","media":"Wind万得","summary":"近期美元指数不断走弱，人民币对美元汇率逐步升值。5月25日，人民币兑美元中间价报6.4283，调升125个基点；离岸人民币对美元汇率日内升穿6.40关口，在岸人民币对美元汇率一度探至6.4016，均创","content":"<p>Recently, the the US Dollar Index has been weakening, and the exchange rate of RMB against the US dollar has gradually appreciated. On May 25th, the central parity of RMB against the US dollar was reported at 6.4283, an increase of 125 basis points; The offshore RMB exchange rate against the US dollar rose above the 6.40 mark in the day, and the onshore RMB exchange rate against the US dollar once reached 6.4016, both hitting new highs in the past three years.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3802973516e3b3f61c8157451f39713a\" tg-width=\"796\" tg-height=\"1125\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/bf8175bd00636290f456e52491857015\" tg-width=\"796\" tg-height=\"957\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><b>The logic of RMB appreciation</b></p><p>As for the reasons for the recent appreciation of RMB exchange rate,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/601328\">Bank of Communications</a>Tang Jianwei, chief researcher of the Financial Research Center, believes that the obvious fluctuation of the US Dollar Index caused by the COVID-19 epidemic is the main reason for the two-way fluctuation of RMB exchange rate against the US dollar; The difference in economic growth performance between China and the United States is the fundamental factor behind exchange rate fluctuations; The difference of monetary policy direction and strength between China and the United States leads to the fluctuation of interest rate spread between China and the United States, which is the policy factor of exchange rate fluctuation.</p><p>Talking about the future trend of RMB exchange rate, Tang Jianwei said that it is expected that the RMB exchange rate will still maintain the characteristics of two-way fluctuation this year, continuing the trend of steady and slightly rising, and the annual exchange rate appreciation is expected to be significantly smaller than that in 2020.</p><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/600030\">CITIC Securities</a>Ming Ming, deputy director of the institute, believes that with the strengthening of China's own economic strength, the internationalization of RMB and the continuous opening of financial markets, the two-way fluctuation characteristics of RMB exchange rate will be strengthened, and the RMB exchange rate will become more market-oriented. The exchange rate of RMB still has strong momentum, and the exchange rate of US dollar against RMB has fallen or touched 6.2.</p><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/601818\">Everbright Bank</a>Zhou Maohua, a financial market analyst, believes that the short-term fluctuation of RMB is mainly affected by the violent fluctuation of the US dollar and other currencies. Due to the repeated global epidemic, the fluctuation of overseas economic recovery, and the differentiation of policies, the market and the Fed's policy outlook are different, and the market fluctuation is still violent; However, the trend of RMB exchange rate is in line with the fundamentals, the market expects to be stable as a whole, and the RMB exchange rate is flexible. From the perspective of internal and external macroeconomic and policy trends, the RMB exchange rate will not show a unilateral trend of strengthening, and it is expected to show a strong two-way fluctuation pattern near the equilibrium level.</p><p>CCB International said that in the first quarter, the US dollar strengthened due to interest rate spreads, and the exchange rate of RMB against the US dollar depreciated. However, the Fed's zero interest rate maintenance, combined with the rise of federal debt and inflation expectations under fiscal expansion, still has a negative impact on the US dollar. It is expected that the dollar will remain in the weak range, and interest rate movements will increase the volatility of the dollar. Maintain the judgment that the RMB exchange rate will appreciate slightly in the next two years. It is expected that the pace of appreciation will slow down and two-way fluctuations will continue.</p><p><b>Impact of A Shares: Five Major Industries Benefit the Most</b></p><p>In the stock market, the appreciation of RMB is conducive to capital inflows. The background of the appreciation of RMB exchange rate mainly lies in the poor economic expectations between China and the United States. Under the expectation of strong Chinese economy, foreign capital flows in, while corporate profit growth recovers, and currency liquidity is beneficial to the domestic stock market.</p><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/601688\">Huatai Securities</a>It said that in 2020, foreign investors will actively increase their holdings of domestic equity assets. In the absence of passive funds brought by the inclusion of the index, foreign investors actively increased their holdings of domestic equity assets by US$64.1 billion in 2020, of which an increase of US$43.7 billion in the fourth quarter.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f3d032d17feb7c9cd9b88bbdbb1dda6b\" tg-width=\"796\" tg-height=\"597\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>In terms of industry, the foreign exchange liability industry will directly benefit from the appreciation of RMB, especially US dollar liabilities, and the depreciation of US dollar will cause one-time exchange gains.</p><p>Wind statistics show that in 2020, the total USD borrowings of all A-share listed companies amounted to about 911.6 billion yuan (airlines including lease liabilities), accounting for 5.94% of the total A-share borrowings.</p><p>In terms of industries, there are five industries where US dollar borrowings account for more than 10% of all borrowings, namely aviation, electronics, communication, mining, agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry and fishery.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/43cc8c1eff54c3238d5841f47dd5543b\" tg-width=\"615\" tg-height=\"719\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>For the aviation industry,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/002673\">Western Securities</a>It is believed that airlines bear more foreign currency liabilities due to the purchase of aircraft materials, and their debt repayment pressure will be reduced in the process of RMB appreciation. In addition, with the advent of the COVID-19 vaccine in the future, global exchanges will return to pre-epidemic levels, and the increase in international business travel demand will bring significant performance repair to airlines. In addition, the appreciation of RMB can also improve residents' purchasing power, superimposing the previous consumption suppression affected by the epidemic. Once the overseas epidemic eases, overseas tourism is expected to usher in a significant growth, and related industries such as aviation, airports and tourism will benefit significantly.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/170e814640f732939bb52a41cbaa38c3\" tg-width=\"657\" tg-height=\"357\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><b>Impact of RMB appreciation on bond market</b></p><p>In terms of Treasury Bond yields, the appreciation of RMB often corresponds to the strength of bond yields.</p><p>The relationship between exchange rate and interest rate is mainly linked by capital flow and risk sentiment:</p><p>1) High interest rates attract cross-border capital inflows and the RMB exchange rate appreciates. According to the data, in 2020, overseas institutions purchased a total of US$190.5 billion in domestic bond assets, the highest scale in history, with a year-on-year growth rate of 85.9%. Against the backdrop of negative global real interest rates, RMB bonds that provide higher positive returns are sought after by global investments.</p><p>2) At the same time, high interest rates can easily suppress consumption and investment, resulting in current account surplus, oversupply of foreign exchange and appreciation of RMB.</p><p>3) The RMB exchange rate continues to appreciate, cross-border funds continue to flow in, and the money supply increases, causing downward pressure on interest rates. Of course, at present, when the RMB capital account is not fully opened, the cross-border capital inflow has very little impact on interest rates, basically the interest rates affect the exchange rates.</p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>How does the RMB exchange rate hit a new high in the past three years affect the stock and bond market?</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nHow does the RMB exchange rate hit a new high in the past three years affect the stock and bond market?\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/99\">\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/c71e30d1317b4a5cb20a41998e10ac68);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">Wind万得 </p>\n<p class=\"h-time smaller\">2021-05-25 17:14</p>\n</div>\n</a>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>Recently, the the US Dollar Index has been weakening, and the exchange rate of RMB against the US dollar has gradually appreciated. On May 25th, the central parity of RMB against the US dollar was reported at 6.4283, an increase of 125 basis points; The offshore RMB exchange rate against the US dollar rose above the 6.40 mark in the day, and the onshore RMB exchange rate against the US dollar once reached 6.4016, both hitting new highs in the past three years.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3802973516e3b3f61c8157451f39713a\" tg-width=\"796\" tg-height=\"1125\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/bf8175bd00636290f456e52491857015\" tg-width=\"796\" tg-height=\"957\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><b>The logic of RMB appreciation</b></p><p>As for the reasons for the recent appreciation of RMB exchange rate,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/601328\">Bank of Communications</a>Tang Jianwei, chief researcher of the Financial Research Center, believes that the obvious fluctuation of the US Dollar Index caused by the COVID-19 epidemic is the main reason for the two-way fluctuation of RMB exchange rate against the US dollar; The difference in economic growth performance between China and the United States is the fundamental factor behind exchange rate fluctuations; The difference of monetary policy direction and strength between China and the United States leads to the fluctuation of interest rate spread between China and the United States, which is the policy factor of exchange rate fluctuation.</p><p>Talking about the future trend of RMB exchange rate, Tang Jianwei said that it is expected that the RMB exchange rate will still maintain the characteristics of two-way fluctuation this year, continuing the trend of steady and slightly rising, and the annual exchange rate appreciation is expected to be significantly smaller than that in 2020.</p><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/600030\">CITIC Securities</a>Ming Ming, deputy director of the institute, believes that with the strengthening of China's own economic strength, the internationalization of RMB and the continuous opening of financial markets, the two-way fluctuation characteristics of RMB exchange rate will be strengthened, and the RMB exchange rate will become more market-oriented. The exchange rate of RMB still has strong momentum, and the exchange rate of US dollar against RMB has fallen or touched 6.2.</p><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/601818\">Everbright Bank</a>Zhou Maohua, a financial market analyst, believes that the short-term fluctuation of RMB is mainly affected by the violent fluctuation of the US dollar and other currencies. Due to the repeated global epidemic, the fluctuation of overseas economic recovery, and the differentiation of policies, the market and the Fed's policy outlook are different, and the market fluctuation is still violent; However, the trend of RMB exchange rate is in line with the fundamentals, the market expects to be stable as a whole, and the RMB exchange rate is flexible. From the perspective of internal and external macroeconomic and policy trends, the RMB exchange rate will not show a unilateral trend of strengthening, and it is expected to show a strong two-way fluctuation pattern near the equilibrium level.</p><p>CCB International said that in the first quarter, the US dollar strengthened due to interest rate spreads, and the exchange rate of RMB against the US dollar depreciated. However, the Fed's zero interest rate maintenance, combined with the rise of federal debt and inflation expectations under fiscal expansion, still has a negative impact on the US dollar. It is expected that the dollar will remain in the weak range, and interest rate movements will increase the volatility of the dollar. Maintain the judgment that the RMB exchange rate will appreciate slightly in the next two years. It is expected that the pace of appreciation will slow down and two-way fluctuations will continue.</p><p><b>Impact of A Shares: Five Major Industries Benefit the Most</b></p><p>In the stock market, the appreciation of RMB is conducive to capital inflows. The background of the appreciation of RMB exchange rate mainly lies in the poor economic expectations between China and the United States. Under the expectation of strong Chinese economy, foreign capital flows in, while corporate profit growth recovers, and currency liquidity is beneficial to the domestic stock market.</p><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/601688\">Huatai Securities</a>It said that in 2020, foreign investors will actively increase their holdings of domestic equity assets. In the absence of passive funds brought by the inclusion of the index, foreign investors actively increased their holdings of domestic equity assets by US$64.1 billion in 2020, of which an increase of US$43.7 billion in the fourth quarter.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f3d032d17feb7c9cd9b88bbdbb1dda6b\" tg-width=\"796\" tg-height=\"597\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>In terms of industry, the foreign exchange liability industry will directly benefit from the appreciation of RMB, especially US dollar liabilities, and the depreciation of US dollar will cause one-time exchange gains.</p><p>Wind statistics show that in 2020, the total USD borrowings of all A-share listed companies amounted to about 911.6 billion yuan (airlines including lease liabilities), accounting for 5.94% of the total A-share borrowings.</p><p>In terms of industries, there are five industries where US dollar borrowings account for more than 10% of all borrowings, namely aviation, electronics, communication, mining, agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry and fishery.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/43cc8c1eff54c3238d5841f47dd5543b\" tg-width=\"615\" tg-height=\"719\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>For the aviation industry,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/002673\">Western Securities</a>It is believed that airlines bear more foreign currency liabilities due to the purchase of aircraft materials, and their debt repayment pressure will be reduced in the process of RMB appreciation. In addition, with the advent of the COVID-19 vaccine in the future, global exchanges will return to pre-epidemic levels, and the increase in international business travel demand will bring significant performance repair to airlines. In addition, the appreciation of RMB can also improve residents' purchasing power, superimposing the previous consumption suppression affected by the epidemic. Once the overseas epidemic eases, overseas tourism is expected to usher in a significant growth, and related industries such as aviation, airports and tourism will benefit significantly.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/170e814640f732939bb52a41cbaa38c3\" tg-width=\"657\" tg-height=\"357\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><b>Impact of RMB appreciation on bond market</b></p><p>In terms of Treasury Bond yields, the appreciation of RMB often corresponds to the strength of bond yields.</p><p>The relationship between exchange rate and interest rate is mainly linked by capital flow and risk sentiment:</p><p>1) High interest rates attract cross-border capital inflows and the RMB exchange rate appreciates. According to the data, in 2020, overseas institutions purchased a total of US$190.5 billion in domestic bond assets, the highest scale in history, with a year-on-year growth rate of 85.9%. Against the backdrop of negative global real interest rates, RMB bonds that provide higher positive returns are sought after by global investments.</p><p>2) At the same time, high interest rates can easily suppress consumption and investment, resulting in current account surplus, oversupply of foreign exchange and appreciation of RMB.</p><p>3) The RMB exchange rate continues to appreciate, cross-border funds continue to flow in, and the money supply increases, causing downward pressure on interest rates. Of course, at present, when the RMB capital account is not fully opened, the cross-border capital inflow has very little impact on interest rates, basically the interest rates affect the exchange rates.</p>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5d8fb95e65f042f352c6313989391357","relate_stocks":{"399001":"深证成指","399006":"创业板指","03141":"华夏亚投债","000001.SH":"上证指数","09141":"华夏亚投债-U","CYB":"人民币ETF-WisdomTree Dreyfus"},"is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1130612289","content_text":"近期美元指数不断走弱，人民币对美元汇率逐步升值。5月25日，人民币兑美元中间价报6.4283，调升125个基点；离岸人民币对美元汇率日内升穿6.40关口，在岸人民币对美元汇率一度探至6.4016，均创出近三年以来新高。\n\n人民币升值的逻辑\n对于近期人民币汇率升值的原因，交通银行金融研究中心首席研究员唐建伟认为，新冠肺炎疫情导致美元指数出现明显波动是人民币兑美元汇率双向波动的主因；中美两国经济增速表现的差异是汇率波动背后的基本面因素；中美两国货币政策方向及力度的差异，导致中美利差波动则是汇率波动的政策面因素。\n谈及未来人民币汇率走势，唐建伟表示，预计今年人民币汇率仍将保持双向波动特征，延续稳中略升的趋势，全年汇率升值幅度预计将明显小于2020年。\n中信证券研究所副所长明明认为，随着中国自身经济实力的增强，人民币国际化以及金融市场持续开放，人民币汇率双向波动特征将有所加强，人民币汇率将更加市场化。人民币汇率仍具备走强动能，美元兑人民币汇率向下或触及6.2。\n光大银行金融市场分析师周茂华认为，短期人民币波动主要是受到美元及其他货币剧烈波动影响，由于全球疫情反复、海外经济复苏波动，政策分化，市场与美联储政策展望存在分歧，市场波动仍偏剧烈；但人民币汇率走势与基本面相符，市场预期整体稳定，人民币汇率弹性足。从内外宏观经济、政策走势看，人民币汇率不会出现单边趋势走强，有望在均衡水平附近呈现强势双向波动格局。\n建银国际表示，一季度受利差支持美元走强，人民币兑美元汇率有所贬值。但联储维持零息，叠加财政扩张下联邦债务和通胀预期上升，对美元仍有负面影响。预计美元仍在弱势区间，利率走势则增加美元波动。维持人民币汇率未来两年小幅升值的判断。预计升值步伐趋缓，双向波动持续。\nA股影响：五大行业最受益\n股市方面，人民币升值有利于资金流入。人民币汇率升值背景主要在于中美经济预期差，在中国经济偏强预期下，外资流入，同时企业利润增长恢复，货币流动性对国内股市有利。\n华泰证券表示，2020年外资主动增持境内股权资产。在无指数纳入带来被动资金的情况下，2020年全年外资主动增持641亿美元的境内股权资产，其中4季度增幅达437亿美元。\n\n行业方面，外汇负债类行业将直接受益人民币升值，尤其是美元负债，美元贬值会造成一次性的汇兑收益。\nWind数据统计显示，2020年，A股所有上市公司美元借款合计约9116亿元（航空公司包括租赁负债），占A股总借款5.94%。\n分行业看，美元借款占全部借款比例超过10%的有5个行业，分别为航空、电子、通信、采掘和农林牧渔。\n\n对于航空业，西部证券认为，航空公司由于采购飞机航材而承担较多外币负债，其偿债压力将会在人民币升值过程中得到降低。此外，随着未来新冠疫苗问世，全球交流将恢复至疫前水平，国际间商旅需求的增加将为航空公司带来显着业绩修复。此外人民币升值也能够提高居民购买力，叠加此前受疫情影响的消费抑制，一旦海外疫情缓解，境外旅游将有望迎来显着增长，航空、机场及旅游等相关行业将显着受益。\n\n人民币升值对债市影响\n国债收益率方面，人民币升值往往对应债券收益率走强。\n汇率与利率的关系主要受资本流动和风险情绪形成联动：\n1） 高利率吸引跨境资本流入，人民币汇率升值。数据显示，2020 年全年境外机构共购买 1905亿美元的境内债券资产，规模创历年之最，同比增速达 85.9%。在全球真实利率转负的背景下，提供较高正回报的人民币债券受到全球投资的追捧。\n2） 同时高利率容易压制消费与投资，造成经常账户顺差，外汇供过于求，人民币升值。\n3）人民币汇率持续升值，跨境资金持续流入，货币供应增加，造成利率下行压力，当然在当前人民币资本账户没有完全开放情况下，跨境资金流入对利率影响非常小，基本上是利率影响汇率。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"399001":0.9,"399006":0.9,"03141":0.9,"CNHmain":0.9,"UCmain":0.9,"09141":0.9,"CYB":0.9,"000001.SH":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1854,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":138681140,"gmtCreate":1621934165880,"gmtModify":1704364695765,"author":{"id":"3570107294783292","authorId":"3570107294783292","name":"luz","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3570107294783292","authorIdStr":"3570107294783292"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Zan","listText":"Zan","text":"Zan","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/138681140","repostId":"1119328389","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2201,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0}],"lives":[]}
