Jiantew personal page - To The Moon

Jiantew

Jiantew

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2022-06-05

$InMode Ltd.(INMD)$Come

2022-05-04

$快验保(MED)$Great 😊

2022-05-26

$阿里巴巴(BABA)$UP

2022-05-11

$InMode Ltd.(INMD)$Mana pergi😭😭😭

2022-02-28

Good job..

This week's preview | Welcome non-farm payrolls amid geopolitical tensions! Baidu and Bilibili financial reports are coming

2022-01-14

👍 like

As the Nasdaq pulls back, these low-valued technology stocks are starting to "absorb money" mode

2022-05-26

$阿里巴巴(BABA)$UP

2022-04-23

$特斯拉(TSLA)$Great 😊

2022-07-30

$InMode Ltd.(INMD)$👍👍👍

2022-06-14

$InMode Ltd.(INMD)$Upup

2022-04-06

Great 👍 thank

Is the upward momentum of US stocks fading? Repurchases hit five-year low in the first quarter

2022-03-08

Great information

If You Invested $5,000 in InMode in 2020, This Is How Much You Would Have Today

2022-01-31

👌very good 😊

Reminder: List of closing arrangements for major markets during the Spring Festival holiday

2022-01-26

Very good 👍 thanks

Hong Kong stocks open | Hang Seng Index rose 0.41%, technology stocks rebounded

2021-09-20

$Proterra Inc.(PTRA)$Good to hold it all d way

2020-12-26

I have a question: I am a Malaysian who work in Malaysia, may I know which Malaysia bank can be used for depositing money into Tiger Broker?

2022-08-04

$InMode Ltd.(INMD)$👍👍👍

2022-04-27

$雪佛龙(CVX)$nice😍

2022-04-21

$伯克希尔(BRK.A)$👍👍👍

2022-04-06

Good sharing 🙏🙏🙏

Opinion | How high is high? Quantitative calculation of the impact of interest rates on U.S. stock

Go to Tiger App to see more news

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🤗🤗","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9052484411","repostId":"2240270757","repostType":2,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2869,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9059749366,"gmtCreate":1654440456055,"gmtModify":1676535448098,"author":{"id":"3570965891716236","authorId":"3570965891716236","name":"Jiantew","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/47decb835fc524ae9d7113ae4c5a5033","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3570965891716236","idStr":"3570965891716236"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/INMD\">$InMode Ltd.(INMD)$</a>Come&nbsp;","listText":"<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/INMD\">$InMode Ltd.(INMD)$</a>Come&nbsp;","text":"$InMode 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href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/CVX\">$雪佛龙(CVX)$</a>nice😍","text":"$雪佛龙(CVX)$nice😍","images":[{"img":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/1acc79fb641369e898d3f22f9d19bc31","width":"1125","height":"2810"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9087696851","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":809,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9085383247,"gmtCreate":1650643476380,"gmtModify":1676534770176,"author":{"id":"3570965891716236","authorId":"3570965891716236","name":"Jiantew","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/47decb835fc524ae9d7113ae4c5a5033","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3570965891716236","idStr":"3570965891716236"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/TSLA\">$特斯拉(TSLA)$</a>Great 😊&nbsp;","listText":"<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/TSLA\">$特斯拉(TSLA)$</a>Great 😊&nbsp;","text":"$特斯拉(TSLA)$Great 😊","images":[{"img":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/befc242abf693ed7a1c106144cb007d4","width":"1125","height":"2705"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9085383247","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":859,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9082046816,"gmtCreate":1650505200761,"gmtModify":1676534740380,"author":{"id":"3570965891716236","authorId":"3570965891716236","name":"Jiantew","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/47decb835fc524ae9d7113ae4c5a5033","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3570965891716236","idStr":"3570965891716236"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/BRK.A\">$伯克希尔(BRK.A)$</a>👍👍👍","listText":"<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/BRK.A\">$伯克希尔(BRK.A)$</a>👍👍👍","text":"$伯克希尔(BRK.A)$👍👍👍","images":[{"img":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/5fe4150465935fbe221cd3b232258f41","width":"1125","height":"2600"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9082046816","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1018,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9086830214,"gmtCreate":1650429662238,"gmtModify":1676534723047,"author":{"id":"3570965891716236","authorId":"3570965891716236","name":"Jiantew","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/47decb835fc524ae9d7113ae4c5a5033","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3570965891716236","idStr":"3570965891716236"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/SEV\">$Sono Group N.V.(SEV)$</a>Good stock 😄😄","listText":"<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/SEV\">$Sono Group N.V.(SEV)$</a>Good stock 😄😄","text":"$Sono Group N.V.(SEV)$Good stock 😄😄","images":[{"img":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/6b2cb4a12cdc5840409626e37e760e60","width":"1125","height":"2990"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9086830214","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":824,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9016252749,"gmtCreate":1649203106675,"gmtModify":1676534468508,"author":{"id":"3570965891716236","authorId":"3570965891716236","name":"Jiantew","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/47decb835fc524ae9d7113ae4c5a5033","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3570965891716236","idStr":"3570965891716236"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Great 👍 thank&nbsp;","listText":"Great 👍 thank&nbsp;","text":"Great 👍 thank","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9016252749","repostId":"2225014535","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"2225014535","kind":"highlight","pubTimestamp":1649199337,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/2225014535?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2022-04-06 06:55","market":"hk","language":"zh","title":"Is the upward momentum of US stocks fading? Repurchases hit five-year low in the first quarter","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2225014535","media":"华尔街见闻","summary":"一季度美银企业客户的美股回购金额与标普500市值之比处于五年来最低水平，较疫情爆发前的五年内平均水平低50%。以四周均值计算，企业客户回购规模最近出现2020年末以来首次同比下降。","content":"<p><html><head></head><body>Although last month<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/GS\">Goldman Sachs</a>It is expected that the scale of U.S. stock repurchases this year is expected to hit the highest annual record, but Bank of America's recent discovery poured cold water.</p><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BAC\">Bank of America</a>Jill Carey Hall, a U.S. stock strategist and head of U.S. stock mid-cap strategy, pointed out in the weekly stock market client capital flow trend report that although U.S. stock buybacks usually slow down every quarter before the earnings season, corporate customers are currently buying back The speed has dropped to its lowest weekly level in 12 months, and based on the average of a four-week period, the scale of buybacks has fallen year-on-year for the first time since the end of 2020.</p><p>As shown in the chart below of Bank of America, in the first quarter of this year, the ratio of the U.S. stock repurchase amount of corporate customers of Bank of America Securities to the market value of the S&P 500 was less than 0.06%, the lowest level since 2017. Moreover, buybacks in the first quarter were 50% lower than the five-year average before the outbreak.<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c0266bdc0003405cba70a1a906db09ff\" tg-width=\"500\" tg-height=\"206\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/>Buybacks are often seen as a major driver of the rise in U.S. stocks. Listed companies can reduce the number of shares of the company through repurchases, thereby pushing up the stock price and increasing the profit per share; Moreover, this can be used to reflect optimism about its prospects and confidence in its financial situation, thus effectively boosting investor sentiment.</p><p>In March, Goldman Sachs analysts raised their forecast for share buybacks this year to a record $1 trillion, up 12% from last year. Last Monday's Wall Street Journal article also mentioned that Goldman Sachs data showed that the scale of stock repurchases so far this year has reached a record $319 billion, compared with $267 billion in the same period last year.</p><p>This week's report by Bank of America strategists did not regard buybacks as the driving force for U.S. stocks to rise, but pointed out that the background of increased supply of IPO new shares and decreased demand for buybacks was the reversal of the decades-old bull market trend in U.S. stocks. They expect that in the face of political risks, Dividend is more likely to outweigh buybacks this year, the cost of borrowing will increase, valuations will be high, and the demand for dividends will increase.</p><p>Although Bank of America did not bluntly state the stimulus of buybacks to stock prices, before the release of Bank of America's above report,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/SBUX\">Starbucks</a>It was just announced on Monday that founder Schultz returned to the CEO position after five years, and also said that he would suspend the company's stock repurchase program. Starbucks fell nearly 6% intraday that day, closed down 3.7%, and closed down 4.5% on Tuesday. As of Tuesday's close, it fell by more than 8% in two days compared with last Friday's close.</p><p></body></html></p>","source":"wallstreetcn_api","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Is the upward momentum of US stocks fading? Repurchases hit five-year low in the first quarter</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nIs the upward momentum of US stocks fading? Repurchases hit five-year low in the first quarter\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">华尔街见闻</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2022-04-06 06:55</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><html><head></head><body>Although last month<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/GS\">Goldman Sachs</a>It is expected that the scale of U.S. stock repurchases this year is expected to hit the highest annual record, but Bank of America's recent discovery poured cold water.</p><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BAC\">Bank of America</a>Jill Carey Hall, a U.S. stock strategist and head of U.S. stock mid-cap strategy, pointed out in the weekly stock market client capital flow trend report that although U.S. stock buybacks usually slow down every quarter before the earnings season, corporate customers are currently buying back The speed has dropped to its lowest weekly level in 12 months, and based on the average of a four-week period, the scale of buybacks has fallen year-on-year for the first time since the end of 2020.</p><p>As shown in the chart below of Bank of America, in the first quarter of this year, the ratio of the U.S. stock repurchase amount of corporate customers of Bank of America Securities to the market value of the S&P 500 was less than 0.06%, the lowest level since 2017. Moreover, buybacks in the first quarter were 50% lower than the five-year average before the outbreak.<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c0266bdc0003405cba70a1a906db09ff\" tg-width=\"500\" tg-height=\"206\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/>Buybacks are often seen as a major driver of the rise in U.S. stocks. Listed companies can reduce the number of shares of the company through repurchases, thereby pushing up the stock price and increasing the profit per share; Moreover, this can be used to reflect optimism about its prospects and confidence in its financial situation, thus effectively boosting investor sentiment.</p><p>In March, Goldman Sachs analysts raised their forecast for share buybacks this year to a record $1 trillion, up 12% from last year. Last Monday's Wall Street Journal article also mentioned that Goldman Sachs data showed that the scale of stock repurchases so far this year has reached a record $319 billion, compared with $267 billion in the same period last year.</p><p>This week's report by Bank of America strategists did not regard buybacks as the driving force for U.S. stocks to rise, but pointed out that the background of increased supply of IPO new shares and decreased demand for buybacks was the reversal of the decades-old bull market trend in U.S. stocks. They expect that in the face of political risks, Dividend is more likely to outweigh buybacks this year, the cost of borrowing will increase, valuations will be high, and the demand for dividends will increase.</p><p>Although Bank of America did not bluntly state the stimulus of buybacks to stock prices, before the release of Bank of America's above report,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/SBUX\">Starbucks</a>It was just announced on Monday that founder Schultz returned to the CEO position after five years, and also said that he would suspend the company's stock repurchase program. Starbucks fell nearly 6% intraday that day, closed down 3.7%, and closed down 4.5% on Tuesday. As of Tuesday's close, it fell by more than 8% in two days compared with last Friday's close.</p><p></body></html></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> source：<a href=\"https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3656095\">华尔街见闻</a></p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/55eb327f580527889cf30bafa92692ae","relate_stocks":{"BK4534":"瑞士信贷持仓","BK4535":"淡马锡持仓","GS":"高盛","BK4581":"高盛持仓","BK4127":"投资银行业与经纪业","BK4552":"Archegos爆仓风波概念","BK4504":"桥水持仓","BK4559":"巴菲特持仓","BK4533":"AQR资本管理(全球第二大对冲基金)","BK4207":"综合性银行","BK4553":"喜马拉雅资本持仓","BAC":"美国银行","BK4209":"餐馆","BK4550":"红杉资本持仓","SBUX":"星巴克"},"source_url":"https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3656095","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2225014535","content_text":"虽然上月高盛预计今年的美股回购规模有望创最高年度纪录，但美银的新近发现泼了冷水。美国银行的美股策略师、美股中盘策略主管Jill Carey Hall在每周发布的股市客户资金流趋势报告中指出，虽然美股回购通常在财报季前的每个季度会放缓，但企业客户目前的回购速度已经降至12个月来最低单周水平，以四周期间的均值计算，回购规模自2020年末以来首次同比下降。如美银下图所示，今年一季度，美银证券企业客户的美股回购金额与标普500市值之比不足0.06%，处于2017年来最低水平。而且，一季度的回购之比较疫情爆发前的五年内平均水平低50%。回购往往被视为美股上涨的一大推手。上市企业可以通过回购减少公司的股票数量，从而推高股价，提高每股利润；而且可以借助此举反映对其前景的乐观态度和对财务状况的信心，从而有效提振投资者的情绪。今年3月，高盛分析师将今年的股票回购预期规模上调至创纪录的1万亿美元，比去年增长了12%。上周一华尔街见闻文章又提到，高盛数据显示，今年迄今为止股票回购规模已经达到创纪录的3190亿美元，而去年同期的规模为2670亿美元。美银策略师本周报告并没有将回购视为美股走高的动因，而是指出，IPO新股供应增加和回购需求减少的背景是，美股几十年牛市的趋势逆转。他们预计，在面临政治风险时，今年更有可能股息规模超过回购，举债的成本将增加，估值高企，派息的需求增加。虽然美银没有直言回购对股价的刺激，但在美银上述报告发布前，星巴克本周一刚宣布，创始人舒尔茨时隔五年重返CEO职位掌舵，同时还表示，将暂停公司的股票回购计划。星巴克当天盘中跌近6%，收跌3.7%，周二又收跌4.5%，截至周二收盘，两日内较上周五收盘跌去8%以上。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"GS":0.9,"SBUX":0.9,"ESmain":0.9,"BAC":0.77}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1573,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9016258180,"gmtCreate":1649202981822,"gmtModify":1676534468450,"author":{"id":"3570965891716236","authorId":"3570965891716236","name":"Jiantew","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/47decb835fc524ae9d7113ae4c5a5033","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3570965891716236","idStr":"3570965891716236"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Good sharing 🙏🙏🙏","listText":"Good sharing 🙏🙏🙏","text":"Good sharing 🙏🙏🙏","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9016258180","repostId":"1155765738","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1155765738","kind":"news","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"市场策略研究、热点问题观察、分享最新观点：美国与海外市场、H股、及中概股市场","home_visible":1,"media_name":"Kevin策略研究","id":"1090746012","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/54c3f16355434883aa8d30b4dc5a7d90"},"pubTimestamp":1649140623,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1155765738?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2022-04-05 14:37","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"Opinion | How high is high? Quantitative calculation of the impact of interest rates on U.S. stock","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1155765738","media":"Kevin策略研究","summary":"摘要近期，美债利率叠创新高且2s10s倒挂，但意外的是美股表现强劲。市场对此不解甚至困惑，主要基于利率上行对股市不利、同时倒挂后衰退风险上升两个常识判断，但细想都不完全成立。一方面，倒挂后不必然有衰退","content":"<p><html><head></head><body><b>SUMMARY</b></p><p>Recently, US Treasury yields has reached new highs and 2s10s is upside down, but surprisingly, U.S. stocks have performed strongly.<b>The market is puzzled or even confused about this, mainly based on two common sense judgments that rising interest rates are unfavorable to the stock market, and at the same time, the risk of recession rises after inversion, but it is not completely true after careful consideration.</b>On the one hand, there is not necessarily a recession after inversion, but the interval is very long. On the other hand, most of the rising interest rates are in the same direction as the market, especially in the early days of the rate hike. But no matter what, the market can't always ignore it. When will it have an impact?</p><p><b>1. How do interest rates affect the market? Looking at short-term expectations, speed is crucial; At the beginning of the upward trend, the market continues to rise (suppressing valuations but rising profits)</b></p><p><b>First, short-term expectations are particularly important.</b>When the expectation is not fully accounted for, it will often bring violent turmoil in interest rates and markets, regardless of the absolute level of interest rates.<b>Secondly, the upward speed of interest rates is equally critical, regardless of the level.</b>Bond interest rates rise too fast, which itself represents an increase in bond asset volatility, which can easily lead to cross-asset fluctuation contagion.<b>Third, in the long term, interest rates will rise, and most of the stock markets will rise until the middle and late stages.</b>The transmission path of interest rate to the market is sentiment, valuation, and finally profit, so the inflection point of valuation is earlier than that of the market.</p><p><b>Second, how high is the interest rate that the market can afford? 2.9% ~ 3% is the sensitive range</b></p><p><b>Method 1: Stocks and bonds are relatively attractive.</b>The current S&P 500 dynamic Dividend rate is 1.37%, and the average US Treasury yields vs. S&P 500 Dividend rate in the 10 years after 2008 is-0.38%. Assuming that the Dividend rate remains unchanged,<b>When the 10-year US Treasury yields rose to 3%, the stock-bond ratio returned to the average.</b></p><p><b>Method 2: Long-term correlation between interest rates and valuations and markets.</b>Counting the relationship between the S&P 500 valuation and the 10-year US Treasury yields since 1962, we found that the valuation will not shrink until the interest rate reaches a certain \"threshold\". Since the outbreak of the epidemic, this \"threshold\" has dropped to 1.6%, which explains the valuation of U.S. stocks. It began to shrink in the fourth quarter of last year. But the market \"threshold\" is higher. In the same way,<b>The \"threshold\" for triggering the market inflection point has been around 3% since 2013.</b></p><p><b>Method 3: Equity risk premium.</b>Assuming that the equity risk premium further shrinks from now to a more optimistic level from 2003 to 2007 (average 2.2%), corresponding to a contraction of 0.5 percentage points,<b>It can withstand a 10-year US Treasury yields rising to 2.9%.</b></p><p><b>Method 4: Interest rate and financial leverage.</b>Comparing the net leverage ratio of S&P 500 non-financial sector stocks since 2000 with the 10-year US Treasury yields, there is a significant negative correlation between the two.<b>Assuming that leverage falls from current levels to historical averages, the corresponding 10-year US Treasury yields is about 2.9%.</b></p><p><b>Method 5: Financing cost and return on investment.</b>When the financing cost approaches the return on investment, it will erode the profits of enterprises and inhibit the willingness to invest. We use S&P 500 ROIC to measure corporate return on investment, and U.S. 10-year investment grade (BBB) and high-yield bond rates to measure financing costs. The 10-year high-yield rate (currently 6.1%) is 1.8 percentage points away from the average ROIC. In addition, the current high-yield spread is 3.7%, which is 1.4 percentage points away from the average of 5.1% since 2000.<b>If the 10-year high-yield interest rate rises by 1.8%, the 10-year US Treasury yields will increase by an additional 0.4 percentage points, which corresponds to 2.8%.</b></p><p>Combining the above five dimensions,<b>We find that 2.9% ~ 3% is a sensitive range</b>, doesn't mean that there will be no volatility before then, but the market can be digested by risk premiums and earnings cushions.</p><p><b>Focus discussion: \"Ignoring\" rising interest rates and curve inversion, U.S. stocks have continued to rise in the near future; So how high interest rates can the market afford?</b></p><p>Recently, affected by the rising expectations of rate hike, US Treasury yields has reached new highs. The 10-year US Treasury yields once approached 2.6% and then fell back to 2.39%. The 2-year US Treasury yields hit 2.5%, making the 2s10s spread inverted for the first time since 2019 (-7bp). But surprisingly, the U.S. stock market has performed strongly during this period. The S&P 500 Index has risen 6.6% since mid-March, and the Nasdaq Composite Index has risen 10.1%.</p><p><b>The market is somewhat puzzled or even confused that U.S. stocks still closed strongly despite rising interest rates. This is mainly based on two common-sense judgments: rising interest rates are often unfavorable to the stock market, especially growth stocks, and at the same time, the risk of recession increases after inversion. However, if you think about it carefully, they are not completely established</b>。 Regarding the relationship between inversion and recession, we have elaborated on it in detail in \"Eight Questions and Eight Answers on the Inversion of the U.S. Bond Yield Curve\". There is not necessarily a recession after inversion, and the average interval between inversion and recession and market inflection point is as long as 17 and 10 months, the so-called looking close leads to walking far. As for the rising interest rate and the market trend, the rising interest rate is not necessarily accompanied by the falling market. In fact, most of the time, both are in the same direction, especially in the early stage of the rate hike and when the interest rate is relatively low.</p><p>But no matter what, the market can't always ignore the rising interest rate. When will it have an impact? In this article, we will use five methods to measure the threshold of the impact of interest rates on the market, which has important reference value in the context of a high probability of interest rates rising easily but difficult to fall in the future.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e3de97110f776c0d2b9a5da1fece19cd\" tg-width=\"929\" tg-height=\"340\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3a40d7b127f8f5521822145a464f2f0d\" tg-width=\"880\" tg-height=\"649\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><b>1. How do interest rates affect the market? Looking at short-term expectations, speed is crucial; At the beginning of the upward trend, the market continues to rise (suppressing valuations but rising profits)</b></p><p>Regarding the impact of interest rates on the market, we have summarized the following characteristics in reports such as \"The Challenge of US Treasury yields's Too Fast Rise\" and \"The Antecedents, Consequences and Historical Experience of shrinking balance sheet Panic\":</p><p><b>1) First, short-term expectations are particularly important.</b>The implementation of monetary policy has a process from expected brewing, to full accounting, and then to actual implementation. At the beginning, asset prices are more affected by expectations. Therefore, insufficient inclusion of expectations, especially when the market is surprised, will often lead to violent turmoil in interest rates and markets, regardless of the absolute level of interest rates. The \"reduction panic\" in 2013 and the \"shrinking balance sheet panic\" at the beginning of this year are the same. However, after entering the actual implementation stage, the full accounting of expectations will actually lead to a fall in interest rates and a market rebound, such as after the FOMC meeting in March. The medium-term trend is related to the fundamental trend.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d6d7717e8cb84af375d5aaa08fd9fef2\" tg-width=\"886\" tg-height=\"762\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><b>2) Secondly, the speed at which interest rates rise is equally critical, regardless of the level.</b>Speed is another important dimension. Bond interest rates rise too fast, which itself represents an increase in the volatility of bond assets, which can easily lead to cross-asset volatility contagion (when our own volatility indicators exceed 1.5 times the standard deviation, there will often be market turmoil). This was true in October 2018 and the beginning of this year. Recently, this indicator once again exceeded 1.5 times the standard deviation (1.9 times in a week), so it still deserves close attention.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/19eaa75e96c399cb989d9d9371a031a8\" tg-width=\"879\" tg-height=\"326\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><b>3) Third, in the long term, if interest rates rise, most of the stock markets will rise until the mid-to-late stages.</b>Rising interest rates do not mean that the market will inevitably fall. In fact, most of the time, the two are in the same direction, especially in the early stage (\"How far can the recent rebound of US stocks go?\").<b>The transmission path of interest rate to the market is sentiment, valuation, and finally profit.</b>Understood in terms of valuation pricing and cash or Dividend discount concepts, valuations are indeed inversely proportional to interest rates (PE = 1 ⁄ ((r _ f + ERP)), r _ f is the 10-year Treasury Bond, and ERP is the equity risk premium), but when interest rates are low, the actual results are mostly in the same direction, because the initial risk appetite (reflected in the decline of risk premium) is enough to offset the drag of rising interest rates, and it will not suppress valuations until it reaches a certain level. But to further suppress the market, profits still need to peak and fall.<b>Therefore, the inflection point of valuation is earlier than the market.</b></p><p>In addition, the impact of rising interest rates is not the same. Although growth stocks are more vulnerable due to high valuations and longer forward discounted cash flows, the banking sector can benefit from widening interest rate spreads.</p><p><b>Second, how high is the interest rate that the market can afford? Calculated in five dimensions, 2.9% ~ 3% is the sensitive range</b></p><p>But there is always a threshold for rising interest rates that may make the negative impact start to dominate. We used five methods to calculate and found that<b>The threshold for the impact of U.S. bonds on U.S. stocks in the current 10 years may be around 2.9 ~ 3%</b>。 Specifically:</p><p><b>Method 1: Stocks and bonds are relatively attractive.</b>The current overall dynamic Dividend ratio of the S&P 500 is 1.37%. The average US Treasury yields vs. S&P 500 dynamic Dividend ratio in the 10 years after the 2008 financial crisis was-0.38%. The current gap between the two is about-1ppt, which means that assuming that the Dividend rate remains unchanged,<b>When the 10-year US Treasury yields rises to around 3%, the relative price ratio of stocks and bonds will return to around the average.</b></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/de77e82e2e5b8bda9829d5f7f1a7c7a2\" tg-width=\"900\" tg-height=\"678\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><b>Method 2: Long-term correlation between interest rates and valuations and markets.</b>Counting the relationship between S&P 500 valuations and the 10-year US Treasury yields since 1962, we find that valuations do not contract until interest rates reach a certain \"threshold\". However, as the interest rate center has continued to decline over the past years, this \"threshold\" has also been continuously lowered. From 1962 to 1980, when the interest rate level rose to 6.5%, the valuation gradually fell. From 1981 to 2001, this \"threshold\" dropped to 5.8%, from 2003 to 2013, it dropped to around 4.0%, and after 2013, it was about 2.4%.<b>This \"threshold\" has further dropped to 1.6% since the outbreak in March 2020</b>, which also explains that the valuation of U.S. stocks has gradually fallen since the fourth quarter of 2021 (the 10-year US Treasury yields has risen from 1.56% in early November last year to the current 2.38%, and the dynamic valuation of the S&P 500 index has dropped from 21.3 times to the current 19.5 times).</p><p>But the \"threshold\" of the market is obviously higher. Also by counting the relationship between the performance of the S&P 500 index since 1962 and the 10-year US Treasury yields,<b>We found that the \"threshold\" that triggers the market inflection point has been around 3% since 2013.</b></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/98902d09d3217602f0ba514f1ae1a21d\" tg-width=\"897\" tg-height=\"324\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><b>Method 3: Equity risk premium.</b>The equity risk premium can offset part of the impact of rising interest rates. The current equity risk premium of the S&P 500 index is 2.7%, which is lower than the average since 2001 (3.4%) and the level before the market fluctuation in October 2018 (3.0%). If we assume that the equity risk premium further shrinks from the current position to a more optimistic level from 2003 to 2007 (average 2.2%), corresponding to a contraction of 5 percentage points,<b>It can withstand the 10-year US Treasury yields rising to 2.9% without guaranteeing that the valuation will not contract further.</b></p><p><b>Method 4: Interest rate level and financial leverage.</b>Comparing the relationship between the net leverage ratio of S&P 500 non-financial sector stocks and the 10-year US Treasury yields since 2000, we find that the two are highly negatively correlated (correlation coefficient-60%). As of 4Q21, the median net leverage ratio of individual stocks in the non-financial sector was 57.8%, which has dropped sharply from the high of 71.3% during the epidemic, but is still lower than the average of 42.5% since 2000.<b>Assuming leverage falls back from the current level to the historical average, the corresponding 10-year US Treasury yields is about 2.9%.</b></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6bd70202bf33ba6972559fa22cebecc0\" tg-width=\"894\" tg-height=\"327\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><b>Method 5: Financing cost and return on investment.</b>When the financing cost approaches the return on investment, it will erode the corporate profits and inhibit the willingness to invest in the future. We use S&P 500 ROIC to measure corporate return on investment, and U.S. 10-year investment grade (BBB) and high-yield bond rates to measure financing costs. As of March 2022, the overall ROIC of the S&P 500 is 11.1%, and the 10-year high-yield bond rate is 6.1%, a difference of 5%. Before the fluctuation of U.S. stocks in October 2018, the S&P 500 ROIC was 8.8%, and the 10-year high-yield interest rate was 6.3%. The difference between the two was 2.5%.</p><p>Driven by the low base of the epidemic and fiscal stimulus, the current high return on investment in U.S. stocks is likely to be unsustainable. Assuming that the ROIC gradually falls back to the long-term average before the epidemic (the average before the outbreak in March 2020 was 7.9%), that is, the ROIC drops from 11.1% to 7.9%, then if the financing cost approaches the return on investment, the 10-year high-yield interest rate (Currently 6.1%) still has 1.8 percentage points of upside from approaching the average ROIC. Looking further, the current high-yield spread is about 3.7%, which is still 1.4 percentage points away from the average level of 5.1% since 2000.<b>Then if the 10-year high-yield interest rate rises by 1.8%, the 10-year US Treasury yields needs to increase by an additional 0.4 percentage points, which corresponds to a 10-year US Treasury yields of 2.8%.</b></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/556beb5ff0fe8ab8378847bd4a3e9140\" tg-width=\"896\" tg-height=\"323\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Based on the above calculations from five dimensions: the attractiveness of stocks and bonds, the long-term correlation between interest rates and valuations and the market, equity risk premium, financial leverage, and corporate return on investment, we find that,<b>The 10-year US Treasury yields of 2.9% to 3% may be a more sensitive range</b>，<b>And until this level is reached, the market may still digest it through the cushion of risk premium and earnings</b>。 Of course, the above-mentioned static measurement level does not mean that it will not fluctuate before it is reached. Changes in sentiment and expectations, as well as the speed of rising interest rates, may still be the reasons for triggering fluctuations.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/eb5f9dac5f64a3199cc082b29935245e\" tg-width=\"889\" tg-height=\"322\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><b>Market dynamics: 2s10s interest rate inverted for the first time; Russia-Ukraine negotiations continue, Biden releases strategic oil reserves, oil prices fall sharply</b></p><p><b>► Asset performance: bonds > stocks > bulk; Interest rates have fallen and are upside down, and resource products are lagging behind</b></p><p>The situation in Russia and Ukraine and hawkish speeches from Federal Reserve officials still dominate market sentiment. At the beginning of the week, the market believed that the Russia-Ukraine talks had made progress. U.S. stocks closed sharply higher and crude oil fell. However, the next day Moscow said that there was no breakthrough in the Russia-Ukraine talks. U.S. stocks fell in response and oil prices rebounded. Near the weekend, Biden announced a half-year record oil reserve release plan. Crude oil futures prices fell back to US $104/barrel again, and gold prices fell back to US $1,919/ounce. The 10-year US Treasury yields fell to 2.34% at the beginning of the week, and rebounded to 2.38% near the weekend, boosted by non-farm employment data. The 2-year US Treasury yields quickly climbed to 2.46% near the weekend, the highest level since March 2019, so the 2s10s spread also narrowed to inversion.</p><p>Overall, in the past week, under US dollar pricing, bonds > stocks > bulk; Russian stocks, Russian ruble, global REITs led the gains; Crude oil, wheat and soybeans led the decline. In terms of sectors, autos and parts, real estate, and utilities led the gains in the S&P 500 index, while banks, semiconductors, and transportation led the losses. In terms of interest rates, 10-year U.S. bonds first fell and then rose, falling 9bp overall to 2.38%, of which real interest rates rose 7bp and inflation expectations fell 16bp.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/810043d1d2791495ed5fc4019212140b\" tg-width=\"851\" tg-height=\"375\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/da2677d7eee62ca08eea45f69f0a8937\" tg-width=\"845\" tg-height=\"655\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><b>► Liquidity: FRA-OIS and credit spreads continue to narrow</b></p><p>In the past week, the FRA-OIS spread continued to fall back to 13bp, the 90-day commercial bill spread of non-financial enterprises continued to fall, the commercial bill spread of financial enterprises rose, the credit spread of U.S. investment and high-yield bonds both narrowed, and the three-month cross-swap between the euro, Japanese yen and the British pound and the U.S. dollar continued to narrow. The willingness to lend funds in the US repo market has increased, and the repo market interest rate has remained flat at 0.3%; The use of reverse repurchases by major U.S. financial institutions on the Federal Reserve books rose to the second highest level in history on Thursday, with a usage scale of $1.87 trillion and a daily average of about $1.73 trillion.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/94780aaec383e529f8d2e4df5867dc63\" tg-width=\"842\" tg-height=\"655\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3bef8d2e3c9810679be67e2b82b6577f\" tg-width=\"846\" tg-height=\"345\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><b>► Emotional positions: U.S. stock short positions decrease, long-end Treasury Bond short positions continue to increase</b></p><p>In the past week, the VIX fell slightly, and the bearish/bullish ratio (10-day average) of US stocks fell back. The overbought degree of U.S. stocks has dropped, the overbought degree of Japan, Europe, and emerging stocks has increased, and the overbought degree of gold and Brent oil has all dropped, but it is still within a reasonable range. In terms of positions, speculative net short positions in U.S. stocks decreased, speculative net long positions in emerging markets increased, and net short positions in 10-year and 2-year U.S. bonds both increased.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8c8a0a1f2b8bb7d11f7f615703fd1d05\" tg-width=\"841\" tg-height=\"682\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/54c2c16dbb3d0c09c8f4f77efe5b94d6\" tg-width=\"846\" tg-height=\"594\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><b>► Fund flow: Stock and bond funds have turned into inflows, and the inflow of China's stock market is obvious</b></p><p>In the past week, bond funds and stock funds have turned into inflows, and money market funds have slowed down. In terms of markets, in terms of stock markets, emerging markets and the United States turned into inflows, while developed Europe and Japan accelerated outflows.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/619debea83c89d1feecde230beddcff0\" tg-width=\"847\" tg-height=\"654\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><b>► Fundamentals and policies: Fundamentals and policies: Non-farm payrolls in March fell short of expectations, and the labor participation rate continued to improve; PMI fell back in March</b></p><p><b>The job market recovery in March was slightly lower than expected, and the unemployment rate fell to its lowest level since February 2020.</b>The number of new non-agricultural jobs in March was 431,000, significantly lower than the previous value of 750,000 (revised) and the expected 490,000. Meanwhile, the unemployment rate fell to 3.6%, its lowest level since February 2020, and the labor force participation rate also increased slightly to 62.4%. Wage growth has increased. In March, wages increased by 0.4% month-on-month and 5.6% year-on-year, both significantly higher than last month's 0.1% and 5.2%. In terms of industries, leisure hotels are still the most important contributor to non-agricultural employment this month, with an increase of 112,000 people in March. In addition, business services, education and health, etc. grew higher this month. In terms of population types, the labor participation rate of the elderly, who have greater flexibility in the impact of the epidemic, fell back to 19.1% again. In addition, the ISM manufacturing industry fell in March compared with the previous month, and prices rose significantly.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/36ae4a071977305280386f83096b5804\" tg-width=\"868\" tg-height=\"604\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><b>The ISM manufacturing PMI fell back to 57.1 in March, down 1.5 month-on-month.</b>In terms of sub-items, new orders, orders on hand, new export orders, output, and imports fell significantly, prices rose sharply, and employment and inventory recovered compared with the previous month.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/be1eeabd164ae22f1a98de8edeef2410\" tg-width=\"860\" tg-height=\"351\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><b>► Market valuation: above reasonable levels for growth and liquidity</b></p><p>The current S&P 500 static P/E of 21.6 x is higher than a reasonable level (~ 19.5 x) that growth and liquidity can support.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/eff472f20f1947fec0322d7c598ea763\" tg-width=\"860\" tg-height=\"659\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/26de9ee535f9b3bf4a8ada46d9aa0f67\" tg-width=\"854\" tg-height=\"324\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p></body></html></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Opinion | How high is high? Quantitative calculation of the impact of interest rates on U.S. stock</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nOpinion | How high is high? Quantitative calculation of the impact of interest rates on U.S. stock\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/1090746012\">\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/54c3f16355434883aa8d30b4dc5a7d90);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">Kevin策略研究 </p>\n<p class=\"h-time smaller\">2022-04-05 14:37</p>\n</div>\n</a>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><html><head></head><body><b>SUMMARY</b></p><p>Recently, US Treasury yields has reached new highs and 2s10s is upside down, but surprisingly, U.S. stocks have performed strongly.<b>The market is puzzled or even confused about this, mainly based on two common sense judgments that rising interest rates are unfavorable to the stock market, and at the same time, the risk of recession rises after inversion, but it is not completely true after careful consideration.</b>On the one hand, there is not necessarily a recession after inversion, but the interval is very long. On the other hand, most of the rising interest rates are in the same direction as the market, especially in the early days of the rate hike. But no matter what, the market can't always ignore it. When will it have an impact?</p><p><b>1. How do interest rates affect the market? Looking at short-term expectations, speed is crucial; At the beginning of the upward trend, the market continues to rise (suppressing valuations but rising profits)</b></p><p><b>First, short-term expectations are particularly important.</b>When the expectation is not fully accounted for, it will often bring violent turmoil in interest rates and markets, regardless of the absolute level of interest rates.<b>Secondly, the upward speed of interest rates is equally critical, regardless of the level.</b>Bond interest rates rise too fast, which itself represents an increase in bond asset volatility, which can easily lead to cross-asset fluctuation contagion.<b>Third, in the long term, interest rates will rise, and most of the stock markets will rise until the middle and late stages.</b>The transmission path of interest rate to the market is sentiment, valuation, and finally profit, so the inflection point of valuation is earlier than that of the market.</p><p><b>Second, how high is the interest rate that the market can afford? 2.9% ~ 3% is the sensitive range</b></p><p><b>Method 1: Stocks and bonds are relatively attractive.</b>The current S&P 500 dynamic Dividend rate is 1.37%, and the average US Treasury yields vs. S&P 500 Dividend rate in the 10 years after 2008 is-0.38%. Assuming that the Dividend rate remains unchanged,<b>When the 10-year US Treasury yields rose to 3%, the stock-bond ratio returned to the average.</b></p><p><b>Method 2: Long-term correlation between interest rates and valuations and markets.</b>Counting the relationship between the S&P 500 valuation and the 10-year US Treasury yields since 1962, we found that the valuation will not shrink until the interest rate reaches a certain \"threshold\". Since the outbreak of the epidemic, this \"threshold\" has dropped to 1.6%, which explains the valuation of U.S. stocks. It began to shrink in the fourth quarter of last year. But the market \"threshold\" is higher. In the same way,<b>The \"threshold\" for triggering the market inflection point has been around 3% since 2013.</b></p><p><b>Method 3: Equity risk premium.</b>Assuming that the equity risk premium further shrinks from now to a more optimistic level from 2003 to 2007 (average 2.2%), corresponding to a contraction of 0.5 percentage points,<b>It can withstand a 10-year US Treasury yields rising to 2.9%.</b></p><p><b>Method 4: Interest rate and financial leverage.</b>Comparing the net leverage ratio of S&P 500 non-financial sector stocks since 2000 with the 10-year US Treasury yields, there is a significant negative correlation between the two.<b>Assuming that leverage falls from current levels to historical averages, the corresponding 10-year US Treasury yields is about 2.9%.</b></p><p><b>Method 5: Financing cost and return on investment.</b>When the financing cost approaches the return on investment, it will erode the profits of enterprises and inhibit the willingness to invest. We use S&P 500 ROIC to measure corporate return on investment, and U.S. 10-year investment grade (BBB) and high-yield bond rates to measure financing costs. The 10-year high-yield rate (currently 6.1%) is 1.8 percentage points away from the average ROIC. In addition, the current high-yield spread is 3.7%, which is 1.4 percentage points away from the average of 5.1% since 2000.<b>If the 10-year high-yield interest rate rises by 1.8%, the 10-year US Treasury yields will increase by an additional 0.4 percentage points, which corresponds to 2.8%.</b></p><p>Combining the above five dimensions,<b>We find that 2.9% ~ 3% is a sensitive range</b>, doesn't mean that there will be no volatility before then, but the market can be digested by risk premiums and earnings cushions.</p><p><b>Focus discussion: \"Ignoring\" rising interest rates and curve inversion, U.S. stocks have continued to rise in the near future; So how high interest rates can the market afford?</b></p><p>Recently, affected by the rising expectations of rate hike, US Treasury yields has reached new highs. The 10-year US Treasury yields once approached 2.6% and then fell back to 2.39%. The 2-year US Treasury yields hit 2.5%, making the 2s10s spread inverted for the first time since 2019 (-7bp). But surprisingly, the U.S. stock market has performed strongly during this period. The S&P 500 Index has risen 6.6% since mid-March, and the Nasdaq Composite Index has risen 10.1%.</p><p><b>The market is somewhat puzzled or even confused that U.S. stocks still closed strongly despite rising interest rates. This is mainly based on two common-sense judgments: rising interest rates are often unfavorable to the stock market, especially growth stocks, and at the same time, the risk of recession increases after inversion. However, if you think about it carefully, they are not completely established</b>。 Regarding the relationship between inversion and recession, we have elaborated on it in detail in \"Eight Questions and Eight Answers on the Inversion of the U.S. Bond Yield Curve\". There is not necessarily a recession after inversion, and the average interval between inversion and recession and market inflection point is as long as 17 and 10 months, the so-called looking close leads to walking far. As for the rising interest rate and the market trend, the rising interest rate is not necessarily accompanied by the falling market. In fact, most of the time, both are in the same direction, especially in the early stage of the rate hike and when the interest rate is relatively low.</p><p>But no matter what, the market can't always ignore the rising interest rate. When will it have an impact? In this article, we will use five methods to measure the threshold of the impact of interest rates on the market, which has important reference value in the context of a high probability of interest rates rising easily but difficult to fall in the future.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e3de97110f776c0d2b9a5da1fece19cd\" tg-width=\"929\" tg-height=\"340\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3a40d7b127f8f5521822145a464f2f0d\" tg-width=\"880\" tg-height=\"649\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><b>1. How do interest rates affect the market? Looking at short-term expectations, speed is crucial; At the beginning of the upward trend, the market continues to rise (suppressing valuations but rising profits)</b></p><p>Regarding the impact of interest rates on the market, we have summarized the following characteristics in reports such as \"The Challenge of US Treasury yields's Too Fast Rise\" and \"The Antecedents, Consequences and Historical Experience of shrinking balance sheet Panic\":</p><p><b>1) First, short-term expectations are particularly important.</b>The implementation of monetary policy has a process from expected brewing, to full accounting, and then to actual implementation. At the beginning, asset prices are more affected by expectations. Therefore, insufficient inclusion of expectations, especially when the market is surprised, will often lead to violent turmoil in interest rates and markets, regardless of the absolute level of interest rates. The \"reduction panic\" in 2013 and the \"shrinking balance sheet panic\" at the beginning of this year are the same. However, after entering the actual implementation stage, the full accounting of expectations will actually lead to a fall in interest rates and a market rebound, such as after the FOMC meeting in March. The medium-term trend is related to the fundamental trend.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d6d7717e8cb84af375d5aaa08fd9fef2\" tg-width=\"886\" tg-height=\"762\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><b>2) Secondly, the speed at which interest rates rise is equally critical, regardless of the level.</b>Speed is another important dimension. Bond interest rates rise too fast, which itself represents an increase in the volatility of bond assets, which can easily lead to cross-asset volatility contagion (when our own volatility indicators exceed 1.5 times the standard deviation, there will often be market turmoil). This was true in October 2018 and the beginning of this year. Recently, this indicator once again exceeded 1.5 times the standard deviation (1.9 times in a week), so it still deserves close attention.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/19eaa75e96c399cb989d9d9371a031a8\" tg-width=\"879\" tg-height=\"326\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><b>3) Third, in the long term, if interest rates rise, most of the stock markets will rise until the mid-to-late stages.</b>Rising interest rates do not mean that the market will inevitably fall. In fact, most of the time, the two are in the same direction, especially in the early stage (\"How far can the recent rebound of US stocks go?\").<b>The transmission path of interest rate to the market is sentiment, valuation, and finally profit.</b>Understood in terms of valuation pricing and cash or Dividend discount concepts, valuations are indeed inversely proportional to interest rates (PE = 1 ⁄ ((r _ f + ERP)), r _ f is the 10-year Treasury Bond, and ERP is the equity risk premium), but when interest rates are low, the actual results are mostly in the same direction, because the initial risk appetite (reflected in the decline of risk premium) is enough to offset the drag of rising interest rates, and it will not suppress valuations until it reaches a certain level. But to further suppress the market, profits still need to peak and fall.<b>Therefore, the inflection point of valuation is earlier than the market.</b></p><p>In addition, the impact of rising interest rates is not the same. Although growth stocks are more vulnerable due to high valuations and longer forward discounted cash flows, the banking sector can benefit from widening interest rate spreads.</p><p><b>Second, how high is the interest rate that the market can afford? Calculated in five dimensions, 2.9% ~ 3% is the sensitive range</b></p><p>But there is always a threshold for rising interest rates that may make the negative impact start to dominate. We used five methods to calculate and found that<b>The threshold for the impact of U.S. bonds on U.S. stocks in the current 10 years may be around 2.9 ~ 3%</b>。 Specifically:</p><p><b>Method 1: Stocks and bonds are relatively attractive.</b>The current overall dynamic Dividend ratio of the S&P 500 is 1.37%. The average US Treasury yields vs. S&P 500 dynamic Dividend ratio in the 10 years after the 2008 financial crisis was-0.38%. The current gap between the two is about-1ppt, which means that assuming that the Dividend rate remains unchanged,<b>When the 10-year US Treasury yields rises to around 3%, the relative price ratio of stocks and bonds will return to around the average.</b></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/de77e82e2e5b8bda9829d5f7f1a7c7a2\" tg-width=\"900\" tg-height=\"678\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><b>Method 2: Long-term correlation between interest rates and valuations and markets.</b>Counting the relationship between S&P 500 valuations and the 10-year US Treasury yields since 1962, we find that valuations do not contract until interest rates reach a certain \"threshold\". However, as the interest rate center has continued to decline over the past years, this \"threshold\" has also been continuously lowered. From 1962 to 1980, when the interest rate level rose to 6.5%, the valuation gradually fell. From 1981 to 2001, this \"threshold\" dropped to 5.8%, from 2003 to 2013, it dropped to around 4.0%, and after 2013, it was about 2.4%.<b>This \"threshold\" has further dropped to 1.6% since the outbreak in March 2020</b>, which also explains that the valuation of U.S. stocks has gradually fallen since the fourth quarter of 2021 (the 10-year US Treasury yields has risen from 1.56% in early November last year to the current 2.38%, and the dynamic valuation of the S&P 500 index has dropped from 21.3 times to the current 19.5 times).</p><p>But the \"threshold\" of the market is obviously higher. Also by counting the relationship between the performance of the S&P 500 index since 1962 and the 10-year US Treasury yields,<b>We found that the \"threshold\" that triggers the market inflection point has been around 3% since 2013.</b></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/98902d09d3217602f0ba514f1ae1a21d\" tg-width=\"897\" tg-height=\"324\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><b>Method 3: Equity risk premium.</b>The equity risk premium can offset part of the impact of rising interest rates. The current equity risk premium of the S&P 500 index is 2.7%, which is lower than the average since 2001 (3.4%) and the level before the market fluctuation in October 2018 (3.0%). If we assume that the equity risk premium further shrinks from the current position to a more optimistic level from 2003 to 2007 (average 2.2%), corresponding to a contraction of 5 percentage points,<b>It can withstand the 10-year US Treasury yields rising to 2.9% without guaranteeing that the valuation will not contract further.</b></p><p><b>Method 4: Interest rate level and financial leverage.</b>Comparing the relationship between the net leverage ratio of S&P 500 non-financial sector stocks and the 10-year US Treasury yields since 2000, we find that the two are highly negatively correlated (correlation coefficient-60%). As of 4Q21, the median net leverage ratio of individual stocks in the non-financial sector was 57.8%, which has dropped sharply from the high of 71.3% during the epidemic, but is still lower than the average of 42.5% since 2000.<b>Assuming leverage falls back from the current level to the historical average, the corresponding 10-year US Treasury yields is about 2.9%.</b></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6bd70202bf33ba6972559fa22cebecc0\" tg-width=\"894\" tg-height=\"327\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><b>Method 5: Financing cost and return on investment.</b>When the financing cost approaches the return on investment, it will erode the corporate profits and inhibit the willingness to invest in the future. We use S&P 500 ROIC to measure corporate return on investment, and U.S. 10-year investment grade (BBB) and high-yield bond rates to measure financing costs. As of March 2022, the overall ROIC of the S&P 500 is 11.1%, and the 10-year high-yield bond rate is 6.1%, a difference of 5%. Before the fluctuation of U.S. stocks in October 2018, the S&P 500 ROIC was 8.8%, and the 10-year high-yield interest rate was 6.3%. The difference between the two was 2.5%.</p><p>Driven by the low base of the epidemic and fiscal stimulus, the current high return on investment in U.S. stocks is likely to be unsustainable. Assuming that the ROIC gradually falls back to the long-term average before the epidemic (the average before the outbreak in March 2020 was 7.9%), that is, the ROIC drops from 11.1% to 7.9%, then if the financing cost approaches the return on investment, the 10-year high-yield interest rate (Currently 6.1%) still has 1.8 percentage points of upside from approaching the average ROIC. Looking further, the current high-yield spread is about 3.7%, which is still 1.4 percentage points away from the average level of 5.1% since 2000.<b>Then if the 10-year high-yield interest rate rises by 1.8%, the 10-year US Treasury yields needs to increase by an additional 0.4 percentage points, which corresponds to a 10-year US Treasury yields of 2.8%.</b></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/556beb5ff0fe8ab8378847bd4a3e9140\" tg-width=\"896\" tg-height=\"323\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Based on the above calculations from five dimensions: the attractiveness of stocks and bonds, the long-term correlation between interest rates and valuations and the market, equity risk premium, financial leverage, and corporate return on investment, we find that,<b>The 10-year US Treasury yields of 2.9% to 3% may be a more sensitive range</b>，<b>And until this level is reached, the market may still digest it through the cushion of risk premium and earnings</b>。 Of course, the above-mentioned static measurement level does not mean that it will not fluctuate before it is reached. Changes in sentiment and expectations, as well as the speed of rising interest rates, may still be the reasons for triggering fluctuations.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/eb5f9dac5f64a3199cc082b29935245e\" tg-width=\"889\" tg-height=\"322\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><b>Market dynamics: 2s10s interest rate inverted for the first time; Russia-Ukraine negotiations continue, Biden releases strategic oil reserves, oil prices fall sharply</b></p><p><b>► Asset performance: bonds > stocks > bulk; Interest rates have fallen and are upside down, and resource products are lagging behind</b></p><p>The situation in Russia and Ukraine and hawkish speeches from Federal Reserve officials still dominate market sentiment. At the beginning of the week, the market believed that the Russia-Ukraine talks had made progress. U.S. stocks closed sharply higher and crude oil fell. However, the next day Moscow said that there was no breakthrough in the Russia-Ukraine talks. U.S. stocks fell in response and oil prices rebounded. Near the weekend, Biden announced a half-year record oil reserve release plan. Crude oil futures prices fell back to US $104/barrel again, and gold prices fell back to US $1,919/ounce. The 10-year US Treasury yields fell to 2.34% at the beginning of the week, and rebounded to 2.38% near the weekend, boosted by non-farm employment data. The 2-year US Treasury yields quickly climbed to 2.46% near the weekend, the highest level since March 2019, so the 2s10s spread also narrowed to inversion.</p><p>Overall, in the past week, under US dollar pricing, bonds > stocks > bulk; Russian stocks, Russian ruble, global REITs led the gains; Crude oil, wheat and soybeans led the decline. In terms of sectors, autos and parts, real estate, and utilities led the gains in the S&P 500 index, while banks, semiconductors, and transportation led the losses. In terms of interest rates, 10-year U.S. bonds first fell and then rose, falling 9bp overall to 2.38%, of which real interest rates rose 7bp and inflation expectations fell 16bp.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/810043d1d2791495ed5fc4019212140b\" tg-width=\"851\" tg-height=\"375\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/da2677d7eee62ca08eea45f69f0a8937\" tg-width=\"845\" tg-height=\"655\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><b>► Liquidity: FRA-OIS and credit spreads continue to narrow</b></p><p>In the past week, the FRA-OIS spread continued to fall back to 13bp, the 90-day commercial bill spread of non-financial enterprises continued to fall, the commercial bill spread of financial enterprises rose, the credit spread of U.S. investment and high-yield bonds both narrowed, and the three-month cross-swap between the euro, Japanese yen and the British pound and the U.S. dollar continued to narrow. The willingness to lend funds in the US repo market has increased, and the repo market interest rate has remained flat at 0.3%; The use of reverse repurchases by major U.S. financial institutions on the Federal Reserve books rose to the second highest level in history on Thursday, with a usage scale of $1.87 trillion and a daily average of about $1.73 trillion.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/94780aaec383e529f8d2e4df5867dc63\" tg-width=\"842\" tg-height=\"655\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3bef8d2e3c9810679be67e2b82b6577f\" tg-width=\"846\" tg-height=\"345\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><b>► Emotional positions: U.S. stock short positions decrease, long-end Treasury Bond short positions continue to increase</b></p><p>In the past week, the VIX fell slightly, and the bearish/bullish ratio (10-day average) of US stocks fell back. The overbought degree of U.S. stocks has dropped, the overbought degree of Japan, Europe, and emerging stocks has increased, and the overbought degree of gold and Brent oil has all dropped, but it is still within a reasonable range. In terms of positions, speculative net short positions in U.S. stocks decreased, speculative net long positions in emerging markets increased, and net short positions in 10-year and 2-year U.S. bonds both increased.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8c8a0a1f2b8bb7d11f7f615703fd1d05\" tg-width=\"841\" tg-height=\"682\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/54c2c16dbb3d0c09c8f4f77efe5b94d6\" tg-width=\"846\" tg-height=\"594\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><b>► Fund flow: Stock and bond funds have turned into inflows, and the inflow of China's stock market is obvious</b></p><p>In the past week, bond funds and stock funds have turned into inflows, and money market funds have slowed down. In terms of markets, in terms of stock markets, emerging markets and the United States turned into inflows, while developed Europe and Japan accelerated outflows.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/619debea83c89d1feecde230beddcff0\" tg-width=\"847\" tg-height=\"654\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><b>► Fundamentals and policies: Fundamentals and policies: Non-farm payrolls in March fell short of expectations, and the labor participation rate continued to improve; PMI fell back in March</b></p><p><b>The job market recovery in March was slightly lower than expected, and the unemployment rate fell to its lowest level since February 2020.</b>The number of new non-agricultural jobs in March was 431,000, significantly lower than the previous value of 750,000 (revised) and the expected 490,000. Meanwhile, the unemployment rate fell to 3.6%, its lowest level since February 2020, and the labor force participation rate also increased slightly to 62.4%. Wage growth has increased. In March, wages increased by 0.4% month-on-month and 5.6% year-on-year, both significantly higher than last month's 0.1% and 5.2%. In terms of industries, leisure hotels are still the most important contributor to non-agricultural employment this month, with an increase of 112,000 people in March. In addition, business services, education and health, etc. grew higher this month. In terms of population types, the labor participation rate of the elderly, who have greater flexibility in the impact of the epidemic, fell back to 19.1% again. In addition, the ISM manufacturing industry fell in March compared with the previous month, and prices rose significantly.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/36ae4a071977305280386f83096b5804\" tg-width=\"868\" tg-height=\"604\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><b>The ISM manufacturing PMI fell back to 57.1 in March, down 1.5 month-on-month.</b>In terms of sub-items, new orders, orders on hand, new export orders, output, and imports fell significantly, prices rose sharply, and employment and inventory recovered compared with the previous month.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/be1eeabd164ae22f1a98de8edeef2410\" tg-width=\"860\" tg-height=\"351\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><b>► Market valuation: above reasonable levels for growth and liquidity</b></p><p>The current S&P 500 static P/E of 21.6 x is higher than a reasonable level (~ 19.5 x) that growth and liquidity can support.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/eff472f20f1947fec0322d7c598ea763\" tg-width=\"860\" tg-height=\"659\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/26de9ee535f9b3bf4a8ada46d9aa0f67\" tg-width=\"854\" tg-height=\"324\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p></body></html></p>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4f6ec6e99c0c8b9feb7f296b78c65a54","relate_stocks":{".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite",".DJI":"道琼斯",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index"},"source_url":"","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1155765738","content_text":"摘要近期，美债利率叠创新高且2s10s倒挂，但意外的是美股表现强劲。市场对此不解甚至困惑，主要基于利率上行对股市不利、同时倒挂后衰退风险上升两个常识判断，但细想都不完全成立。一方面，倒挂后不必然有衰退而间隔很长。另一方面，利率上行多数与市场同向，尤其是加息初期。但不论如何，市场不可能一直无视，那何时会有影响？一、利率如何影响市场？短期看预期，速度很关键；上行初期市场继续上行（压制估值但盈利上行）首先，短期预期尤为重要。预期计入不充分时，往往会带来利率和市场剧烈动荡，与利率绝对水平无关。其次，利率上行速度同样关键，无论水平高低。债券利率上行过快，本身代表着债券资产波动增加，容易造成跨资产波动传染。第三，长周期看利率上行股市多数上行，直到中后期。利率对市场的传导路径依次是情绪、估值、最后盈利，故估值的拐点早于市场。二、市场能够承受多高的利率？2.9%~3%是敏感区间方法一：股债相对吸引力。当前标普500动态股息率1.37%，2008年后10年美债利率vs.标普500股息率均值-0.38%，假设股息率不变，10年美债利率升至3%时股债比价回到均值。方法二：利率与估值和市场长期相关性。统计1962年以来标普500估值与10年美债利率间关系，我们发现利率达到某个“阈值”后估值才会收缩，疫情爆发以来这一“阈值”降至1.6%，解释了美股估值自去年四季度开始收缩。但市场“阈值”更高，同样方法，触发市场拐点“阈值”2013年以来约在3%附近。方法三：股权风险溢价。假设股权风险溢价从目前进一步收缩至2003~2007年更乐观水平（均值2.2%），对应0.5个百分点收缩，可承受10年美债利率升至2.9%。方法四：利率与财务杠杆。对比2000年以来标普500非金融板块个股净杠杆率与10年美债利率，二者明显负相关。假设杠杆从当前水平降至历史均值，对应10年美债利率约为2.9%。方法五：融资成本与投资回报率。融资成本逼近投资回报率时，将会侵蚀企业利润并抑制投资意愿。我们用标普500指数ROIC衡量企业投资回报率，并用美国10年期投资级（BBB）和高收益债券利率衡量融资成本。10年高收益利率（当前6.1%）距ROIC均值有1.8个百分点空间。此外，当前高收益率利差3.7%，距2000年以来5.1%均值有1.4个百分点空间。若10年高收益利率抬升1.8%，10年美债利率额外提升0.4个百分点，即对应2.8%。综合上述五个维度，我们发现2.9%~3%是一个敏感区间，并不意味着在此之前就不会波动，但市场可通过风险溢价和盈利缓冲垫消化。焦点讨论：“无视”利率上行和曲线倒挂，美股近期继续上行；那么市场能够承受多高的利率？近期，受加息预期升温影响，美债利率叠创新高，10年美债利率一度逼近2.6%后回落至2.39%，2年美债利率则触及2.5%，使得2s10s利差自2019年以来首度倒挂（-7bp）。但意外的是，美股市场在此期间却表现强劲，标普500指数3月中旬以来上涨6.6%，纳斯达克综指更是上涨10.1%。市场对利率抬升下美股依然强势收涨多少有些不解甚至困惑，主要基于利率上行对股市特别是成长股往往不利、同时倒挂后衰退风险增加等两个常识性判断，但细想其实都不完全成立。关于倒挂和衰退的关系，我们在《美债收益率曲线倒挂八问八答》已做了详细阐述，倒挂后不必然有衰退，而且倒挂到衰退和市场拐点平均间隔长达17和10个月，所谓看着近走着远。而针对利率上行与市场走势，也不是利率上行必然伴随市场下跌，实际上多数时候两者都是同向的，尤其是在加息初期和利率处于相对低位时。但不论如何，市场不可能一直无视利率上行，何时将会有影响？我们将在本文中通过五种方法测算利率对市场影响的阈值，这在未来一段时间利率大概率易上难下的背景下有重要参考价值。一、利率如何影响市场？短期看预期，速度很关键；上行初期市场继续上行（压制估值但盈利上行）关于利率对市场的影响，我们在《美债利率上行过快的挑战》、《“缩表恐慌”前因、后果与历史经验》等报告中总结过以下特点：1）首先，短期预期尤为重要。货币政策实施，都有一个从预期酝酿、到完全计入、再到实际执行的过程。初期更多通过预期影响资产价格，因此预期计入不充分特别是让市场意外时，往往会带来利率和市场的剧烈动荡，与利率所处绝对水平无关，2013年的“削减恐慌”与今年年初的“缩表恐慌”都是如此。但进入实际执行阶段后，预期的充分计入反而会带来利率阶段回落和市场反弹，如3月FOMC会议后。中期走势则与基本面趋势有关。2）其次，利率上行速度同样关键，无论水平高低。速度是另外一个重要维度，债券利率上行过快，本身代表着债券资产波动增加，容易造成跨资产的波动传染（我们自有的波动指标超过1.5倍标准差时，往往会有市场动荡），2018年10月和今年年初均是如此。近期这一指标再度突破1.5倍标准差（过于一周达1.9倍），因此依然值得密切关注。3）第三，长周期看利率上行股市多数上行，直到中后期。利率上行并不意味着市场必然下跌，实际上多数时间二者反而是同向的，尤其在初期（《近期美股的反弹能走多远？》）。利率对市场的传导路径依次是情绪、估值、最后盈利。从估值定价和现金或股息贴现概念来理解的话，估值的确与利率成反比（PE=1⁄((r_f+ERP)),r_f为10年国债，ERP为股权风险溢价），但当利率处于低位时，实际结果反而多数为同向，这是因为初期风险偏好（反映为风险溢价下降）足以抵消利率抬升拖累，直到高到一定程度时才会压制估值。但进一步到压制市场，还需要盈利见顶回落，因此估值的拐点早于市场。此外，利率上行的影响也非千篇一律，尽管成长股因为高估值和更远期现金流折现更易受损，但银行板块却可以受益于利差的扩大。二、市场能够承受多高的利率？五个维度测算，2.9%~3%是敏感区间但是利率上行总有一个阈值可能使得负面影响开始占据主导。我们分别用5种方法测算，发现当前10年美债对美股的影响阈值可能在2.9~3%附近。具体而言：方法一：股债相对吸引力。当前标普500整体动态股息率为1.37%。2008年金融危机后10年美债利率vs.标普500动态股息率的均值为-0.38%。二者当前差距为-1ppt左右，意味着假设股息率不变，10年美债利率升至3%附近时，股债相对比价将会回到均值附近。方法二：利率与估值和市场的长期相关性。统计1962年以来标普500估值与10年美债利率之间的关系，我们发现直到利率达到某个“阈值”之后，估值才会收缩。不过由于过去多年利率中枢持续下行，因此这一“阈值”也不断降低。1962~1980年，当利率水平升至6.5%后估值逐渐回落，1981~2001年间这一“阈值”降至5.8%，在2003~2013年又降至4.0%附近，2013年后为2.4%左右。2020年3月疫情爆发以来这一“阈值”进一步降至1.6%，这也解释了美股估值自2021年四季度开始逐渐回落（10年美债利率从去年11月初的1.56%一路走高至当前的2.38%，标普500指数动态估值从21.3倍降至当前的19.5倍）。但市场的“阈值”显然更高。同样通过统计1962年以来标普500指数表现与10年美债利率的关系，我们发现触发市场拐点的“阈值”2013年以来大概在3%附近。方法三：股权风险溢价。股权风险溢价能够抵消一部分利率抬升的影响，当前标普500指数的股权风险溢价为2.7%，已低于2001年以来均值（3.4%）及2018年10月市场波动前水平（3.0%）。若假设股权风险溢价从目前位置进一步收缩至2003~2007年更为乐观水平（均值2.2%），对应5个百分点的收缩，可以承受10年美债利率升至2.9%而保证估值不进一步收缩。方法四：利率水平与财务杠杆。对比2000年以来标普500非金融板块个股净杠杆率与10年美债利率的关系，我们发现二者高度负相关（相关系数-60%）。截止4Q21，非金融板块个股净杠杆率中位数为57.8%，较疫情期间71.3%的高点已经大幅回落，但仍低于2000年以来42.5%的均值。假设杠杆从当前水平回落至历史均值，对应10年美债利率约为2.9%。方法五：融资成本与投资回报率。当融资成本逼近投资回报率时，将会侵蚀企业利润并抑制未来投资意愿。我们用标普500指数ROIC衡量企业投资回报率，并用美国10年期投资级（BBB）和高收益债券利率衡量融资成本。截至2022年3月，标普500整体ROIC为11.1%，10年期高收益债券利率为6.1%，二者相差5%。2018年10月美股波动前标普500 ROIC为8.8%，10年高收益利率6.3%，二者相差2.5%。受疫情低基数和财政刺激推动，当前美股偏高的美股投资回报率大概率不可持续。假设ROIC逐步回落至疫情前长期均值（2020年3月疫情爆发前均值为7.9%），即ROIC从11.1%降至7.9%，那么如若使融资成本逼近投资回报率的话，10年高收益利率（当前6.1%）距接近ROIC均值仍有1.8个百分点的上行空间。进一步看，当前高收益率利差约3.7%，距离2000年以来5.1%的均值水平仍有1.4个百分点的空间。那么如若10年高收益利率抬升1.8%的话，10年美债利率需额外提升0.4个百分点，即对应10年美债利率为2.8%。综合上述从股债吸引力、利率与估值和市场的长期相关性、股权风险溢价、财务杠杆以及企业投资回报率等五个维度的测算，我们发现，2.9%~3%的10年美债利率可能是一个较为敏感的区间，而在达到这一水平前，市场仍可能通过风险溢价和盈利的缓冲垫来消化。当然，上述静态测算的水平并不意味着没有达到之前就一定不会波动，情绪和预期的变化、以及利率上行的速度都仍有可能成为触发波动的原因。市场动态：2s10s利率首度倒挂；俄乌谈判继续，拜登释放战略石油储备，油价大幅回落►资产表现：债>股>大宗；利率回落且倒挂，资源品落后俄乌局势和美联储官员鹰派发言仍主导市场情绪，周初市场认为俄乌会谈取得进展，美股大幅收高，原油回落，但次日莫斯科称俄乌谈判未有任何突破，美股应声下跌，油价回升。临近周末，拜登宣布为期半年的创纪录储备油投放计划，原油期货价格再度回落至104美元/桶，黄金价格回落至1919美元/盎司。10年美债利率周初下跌至2.34%，临近周末受非农就业数据提振回升至2.38%，2年美债利率临近周末快速攀升至2.46%，创2019年3月来的最高水平，因此2s10s利差也收窄至倒挂。整体来看，过去一周，美元计价下，债>股>大宗；俄罗斯股市、俄罗斯卢布、全球REITs领涨；原油、小麦、大豆领跌。板块方面，标普500指数中汽车与零部件、房地产、公用事业领涨，银行、半导体、运输领跌。利率方面，10年美债先跌后涨，整体回落9bp升至2.38%，其中实际利率抬升7bp，通胀预期回落16bp。►流动性：FRA-OIS及信用利差继续收窄过去一周，FRA-OIS利差继续回落至13bp，90天非金融企业商票利差持续回落，金融企业商票利差有所抬升，美国投资及高收益债信用利差均收窄，欧元、日元和英镑与美元的3个月交叉互换持续收窄。美国回购市场资金出借意愿增加，回购市场利率持平于0.3%；美国主要金融机构在美联储账上的逆回购使用量周四升至有史以来以来第二高水平，使用规模达1.87万亿美元，日度平均规模约1.73万亿美元。►情绪仓位：美股空头减少，长端国债空头继续增加过去一周，VIX小幅回落，美股看空/看多比例（10天平均）回落。美股超买程度回落、日本、欧洲、新兴超买程度抬升，黄金、布油超买程度均回落，但目前仍处于合理区间。仓位方面，美股投机性净空头仓位减少，新兴市场投机性净多头仓位增加，10年期和2年期美债净空头均增加。►资金流向：股、债型基金转为流入，中国股市流入明显过去一周，债券型基金、股票型基金转为流入、货币市场基金流入放缓。分市场看，股市方面，新兴市场、美国转为流入，发达欧洲、日本加速流出。►基本面与政策：基本面与政策：3月非农不及预期，劳动参与率继续改善；3月PMI回落3月就业市场修复略低于预期，失业率降至2020年2月以来最低水平。3月非农新增就业人数43.1万人，大幅低于前值75万人（修正后）和预期的49万人。与此同时，失业率下降至3.6%，为2020年2月以来的最低水平，劳动参与率也小幅提升至62.4%。薪资增速有所上涨，3月工资环比增长0.4%，同比5.6%，均明显高于上个月的0.1%和5.2%。分行业看，休闲酒店仍是本月非农就业的最主要贡献，3月增加11.2万人，此外商业服务、教育健康等本月增长较高。分人口类型看，疫情影响弹性更大的老年人劳动参与率再度回落至19.1%。此外，3月ISM制造业较前月回落，物价抬升明显。3月ISM制造业PMI回落至57.1，环比下降1.5。分项来看，新订单、在手订单、新出口订单、产出、进口回落明显，物价大幅抬升，就业及库存较前月修复。►市场估值：高于增长和流动性合理水平当前标普500 21.6倍静态P/E高于增长和流动性能够支撑的合理水平（~19.5倍）。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"ZTmain":0.9,".IXIC":0.9,"ZBmain":0.9,"UBmain":0.9,"ZNmain":0.9,".SPX":0.9,".DJI":0.9,"TNmain":0.9,"ZFmain":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1008,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9038901756,"gmtCreate":1646705512419,"gmtModify":1676534153118,"author":{"id":"3570965891716236","authorId":"3570965891716236","name":"Jiantew","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/47decb835fc524ae9d7113ae4c5a5033","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3570965891716236","idStr":"3570965891716236"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Great information&nbsp;","listText":"Great information&nbsp;","text":"Great information","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9038901756","repostId":"2214138170","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"2214138170","kind":"highlight","pubTimestamp":1645917536,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/2214138170?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2022-02-27 07:18","market":"us","language":"en","title":"If You Invested $5,000 in InMode in 2020, This Is How Much You Would Have Today","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2214138170","media":"Motley Fool","summary":"You'd have more than doubled your money.","content":"<div>\n<p>As a medical equipment company focused on developing innovative devices to perform aesthetic procedures, InMode (NASDAQ:INMD) has a lot to offer investors.With its snappy revenue growth, robust ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://www.fool.com/investing/2022/02/26/if-you-invested-5000-in-inmode-in-2020-this-is-how/\">Source Link</a>\n\n</div>\n","source":"fool_stock","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>If You Invested $5,000 in InMode in 2020, This Is How Much You Would Have Today</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ 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#494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nIf You Invested $5,000 in InMode in 2020, This Is How Much You Would Have Today\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2022-02-27 07:18 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://www.fool.com/investing/2022/02/26/if-you-invested-5000-in-inmode-in-2020-this-is-how/><strong>Motley Fool</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>As a medical equipment company focused on developing innovative devices to perform aesthetic procedures, InMode (NASDAQ:INMD) has a lot to offer investors.With its snappy revenue growth, robust ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://www.fool.com/investing/2022/02/26/if-you-invested-5000-in-inmode-in-2020-this-is-how/\">Source Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"INMD":"InMode Ltd.","BK4082":"医疗保健设备"},"source_url":"https://www.fool.com/investing/2022/02/26/if-you-invested-5000-in-inmode-in-2020-this-is-how/","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2214138170","content_text":"As a medical equipment company focused on developing innovative devices to perform aesthetic procedures, InMode (NASDAQ:INMD) has a lot to offer investors.With its snappy revenue growth, robust profitability, and consistent investment in research and development, there are many factors supporting its long-term performance -- and that's been true for quite some time. Over the last 12 months, its shares have risen by 13.7%, topping the market's increase of 10.4%.But how much money would shareholders have made if they invested even further back, and what are the company's chances of replicating its run-up to the present? Let's crunch a few numbers and examine its business model to find out why it's successful.Image source: Getty Images.Pricing means it won't be hard to repeat successWhen it comes to cosmetic medical procedures, people only have a few options. One path is plastic surgery, which is highly effective, but it's invasive and can cost upward of $5,000 per procedure.Another avenue is less-invasive techniques like laser treatments, which can cost around $2,500 per treatment, but aren't always on par with surgery in terms of the results. Plus, many procedures aren't possible with laser treatments, which limits their usefulness.There is one more option. InMode's specialty is less-invasive radiofrequency devices that are inexpensive and deliver surgery-like results for patients. The company makes a variety of machines with services including body remodeling, skin tightening, and even muscle toning. InMode's devices punch above their price point when it comes to convenience and efficacy, which is a competitive advantage. A full course of treatment with its Morpheus skin remodeling device can cost as little as $2,250 and patients don't require any downtime afterward.That's why it's not surprising that its twelve-month trailing revenue has increased by more than 225% since 2019, reaching $357.5 million. And, its quarterly net income has grown by more than 420% in the last three years.Holding this stock has paid off handsomelyBut how much did that hot run of growth end up helping shareholders who started a position in early 2020?At the very start of 2020, shares of InMode were going for near $21. Now, they're close to $40.5, which means investors from early 2020 would be up by around 104%. If you'd bought $5,000 worth of shares, you'd currently have roughly $10,200. That's not half bad, considering that the market's total return in that period was only 35.3%.^SPX data by YChartsBut if you had sold your shares when InMode's stock was at its height near $95 in early October 2021, you'd have made an even more impressive sum of $20,100.There's a good chance that the company will return to that price level over the next couple of years. In fact, the average of four price estimates made by professional analysts who routinely cover the stock is $82.7. So if the company continues to expand at its present rate, its stock price could shoot to new highs, rewarding investors who held the stock through its recent downturn.More growth is on the wayLooking into the future, InMode is in a position to keep flourishing. Though its shares are down by more than 43.3% this year, it has a few growth drivers that should perk things up quite quickly.The company is expanding into international markets, 17 of which it entered for the first time in 2021. And it'll continue to expand its portfolio of devices so it can steal market share from traditional plastic surgery and laser treatments. Furthermore, InMode will also keep developing and selling new consumables like replacement handpieces for its equipment, as its business uses a razor-and-blade model.In terms of the scope of its research and development (R&D) work on new hardware, investors will be pleased to hear that annual R&D expenditures have increased by 67.2% since January 2020, reaching $9.5 million for 2021. At the same time, R&D costs have decreased as a percentage of annual revenue, which means that new device development can sustainably proceed at the current pace. Management thinks that pace is sufficient to continue launching two new pieces of equipment per year.Financially, there's little standing in the company's way. Its debt of $4.5 million is negligible, and it has $415.9 million in cash to fuel its efforts.So if you don't want to miss out on the next leg of this company's growth, it might be a good idea to consider an investment. There's no guarantee that the stock will repeat its run-up over the last few years, but it's entirely possible that it'll keep outperforming the market given its business fundamentals.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"INMD":1}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1476,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9031472448,"gmtCreate":1646659358396,"gmtModify":1676534147576,"author":{"id":"3570965891716236","authorId":"3570965891716236","name":"Jiantew","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/47decb835fc524ae9d7113ae4c5a5033","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3570965891716236","idStr":"3570965891716236"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"🙏🙏🙏","listText":"🙏🙏🙏","text":"🙏🙏🙏","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9031472448","repostId":"2217417396","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"2217417396","kind":"highlight","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"《财经》杂志官方微信。《财经》杂志由中国证券市场研究中心主办，1998年创刊，秉承“独立、独家、独到”的新闻理念，以权威性、公正性、专业性报道见长，是政经学界决策者、研究者、管理者的必读刊物。","home_visible":1,"media_name":"财经杂志","id":"87","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c8fcc4c551a84ec8b97050d17fe013e0"},"pubTimestamp":1646655254,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/2217417396?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2022-03-07 20:14","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"Global prices are soaring, and multiple energy and food crises are coming","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2217417396","media":"财经杂志","summary":"消费者在为通胀付出代价。","content":"<p><div>The market is generally worried that global inflation has evolved from a phased problem to a long-term problem. Consumers are paying the price for inflation. The picture shows Americans in a dessert shop with a sharp price increase. Photo/Caijing reporter Jin Yanwen | Caijing special correspondent Jin Yan from Washington The world is facing the most serious geopolitical crisis since the end of the Cold War, and it has also cast a huge shadow on the global economy. The economic sanctions led by Europe and the United States are rapidly causing an avalanche in the Russian economy. European stocks have fallen into technical correction territory, metals prices continue to surge, global supplies are severely squeezed, and global energy markets are thrown into complete chaos,...</p><p><a href=\"\">Web link</a></div></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Global prices are soaring, and multiple energy and food crises are coming</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nGlobal prices are soaring, and multiple energy and food crises are coming\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/87\">\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/c8fcc4c551a84ec8b97050d17fe013e0);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">财经杂志 </p>\n<p class=\"h-time smaller\">2022-03-07 20:14</p>\n</div>\n</a>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><div>The market is generally worried that global inflation has evolved from a phased problem to a long-term problem. Consumers are paying the price for inflation. The picture shows Americans in a dessert shop with a sharp price increase. Photo/Caijing reporter Jin Yanwen | Caijing special correspondent Jin Yan from Washington The world is facing the most serious geopolitical crisis since the end of the Cold War, and it has also cast a huge shadow on the global economy. The economic sanctions led by Europe and the United States are rapidly causing an avalanche in the Russian economy. European stocks have fallen into technical correction territory, metals prices continue to surge, global supplies are severely squeezed, and global energy markets are thrown into complete chaos,...</p><p><a href=\"\">Web link</a></div></p>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/65dddb7d0b0d277076aff615f483a688","relate_stocks":{".DJI":"道琼斯"},"source_url":"","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2217417396","content_text":"市场普遍担心，全球通胀从一个阶段性问题演变成一个长期性问题消费者在为通胀付出代价。图为美国人在大幅提价的甜点店内。摄/《财经》记者金焱文 |《财经》特派记者 金焱 发自华盛顿世界面临着冷战结束以来一次最严重的地缘政治危机，它同时也给全球经济投下了巨大的阴影。欧美主导的经济制裁正在迅速使俄罗斯经济发生雪崩。欧洲股市已跌至技术回调区间，金属价格持续飙升，全球供应受到严重挤压，全球能源市场彻底陷入混乱，美国市场剧烈震荡。地缘政治的损害正在引发多重危机。能源恐慌升级3月伊始，在美国及其盟国就俄乌战争对俄罗斯实施制裁后，美国主要油价十多年来首次升破每桶110美元。美国当地时间3月6日晚非常规交易时段，纽约WTI原油、伦敦布伦特原油期货开盘大涨，原油价格一度突破每桶130美元。布伦特原油一度拉升20美元/桶，最高至138.02美元/桶。石油交易员称，对俄罗斯能源流动受限的担忧引发了对原油的抢购，推动油价大涨25%。油价持续飙升，原油的地缘政治溢价让美国消费者叫苦不迭。图为马里兰的一个加油站内，为汽车加油的顾客正在盘算高油价的成本。摄/《财经》记者金焱历史上原油价格仅有两次冲上100 美元/桶关口，分别是2008 年3月和2011年2月，第一次原油价格直上直下，第二次则在100 美元上方停留了近三年半的时间。此次受“美国正与欧洲盟友合作，共同研究禁止进口俄罗斯石油的可能性”消息的影响，国际油价飙升至14年新高。俄罗斯是第二大原油出口国，每天出口400万至500万桶原油，仅次于沙特。根据美国能源信息管理局（EIA）的数据，俄罗斯石油仅占去年抵达美国的所有原油进口量的3%左右。情报公司Kpler的数据显示，截至目前，美国2022年从俄罗斯原油的进口量已降至2017年以来的最低水平。另有EIA数据表明，美国平均每月从俄罗斯进口超过2040万桶原油和精炼油品，约占美国液体燃料进口量的8%。华尔街享誉盛名的投资人安迪·赫克特(Andy Hecht)对《财经》记者说，原油价格不断创下新高，如果油价涨到200美元/桶也没什么好奇怪的。油价可以参照国际煤炭价格的持续大幅攀升，如今国际基准煤炭价格都400多美元/吨了。大多数市场参与者可能会把原油作为世界上最具政治性的大宗商品。尽管各国在鼓励替代原油、用可再生燃料来应对气候变化，但化石燃料仍将是最大的动力提供源。转向替代燃料需要几十年的时间。纽卡斯尔NEWC动力煤价格在3月2日报价为446美元/吨，单日飙升140.55美元，而就在2月25日，该收盘报价仅为238美元/吨。仅仅在三个交易时间段内，涨幅达到了87%。过去一周，全球商品价格涨势惊人，标准普尔商品指数年内涨幅达到37%，彭博大宗商品指数接近1960年以来的最大周涨幅。看涨的狂热情绪正在席卷石油市场。美国商品期货委员会（CFTC）数据显示，3月1日当周，投机者所持布伦特和WTI原油净多头头寸增加31096手，至531580手合约。汇丰银行（HSBC）经济学家诺伊曼（Frederic Neumann）对《财经》记者指出，能源价格的飙升，势必更快地推高整体通胀，这会超出很多人的预期。与此同时，在劳动力市场迅速收紧的情况下，美联储似乎仍将迅速连续加息。中国政府将今年经济增长目标设定在5.5%左右，这是雄心勃勃的增长目标，为实现其增长目标，中国采取更激进的宽松政策可能会放大全球大宗商品价格的压力。3月7日国务院新闻办公室举行新闻发布会，国家发展改革委副主任连维良表示，近期俄乌冲突升级，对全球能源市场带来冲击，国际原油、天然气价格进一步攀升。由于中国原油、天然气外采比例较高，会受到影响，进口成本客观上会有所抬升。但总体上看影响是可控的。这是因为，中国一方面是能源消费大国，同时也是能源生产大国，因此能源供应总体是有保障的。物价只会越来越高美国目前仍然处在通胀的大环境里。随着疫情缓和、经济复苏带来的需求持续旺盛。近期俄乌冲突造成的市场恐慌，油气、金属、农产品和消费品的价格均有所提高。在能源价格推动下，1月美国消费品物价指数（CPI）同比增长7.5%，创近40年新高。花旗集团前全球外汇主管、深数宏观（DeepMacro）联合创始人兼CEO杰弗瑞·杨（Jeffrey Young）对《财经》记者说，通货膨胀只会越来越高。能源、食品和很多其他商品的价格都在上涨，包括并不受供应链或战争影响的服务价格。很多农产品的价格非常高。这一切不仅提高了美国的通货膨胀水平，也可能在一些新兴市场中造成不稳定。美国总统拜登日前发表了上任后首次正式的国情咨文演讲，通胀问题成为举足轻重的议题。有分析预测美国2月CPI增速或将冲刺8%。根据美国汽车协会6日公布的全国平均汽油价格监测报告，美国普通汽油的平均价格目前为每加仑4.009美元，其中加利福尼亚州、伊利诺伊州、纽约州、宾夕法尼亚州和夏威夷州等地的油价最高，在4.18美元至5.29美元之间，数据创下了2008年6月以来的最高汽油均价纪录。  航运公司正在避开俄罗斯港口，转而启用之前较少使用的的亚欧铁路线，而黑海附近的大部分地区无法航行通过。波斯湾至亚洲航线上超大型油轮的租赁价格较一周前上涨了83%，原因是全球买家正在不惜一切代价囤积原油，以防俄罗斯出口枯竭。另外，许多航空货运路线被要求禁止进入俄罗斯领空，这些使运费成本上升，传导到消费者手中的商品价格也不得不上涨。本已紧张的供应链压力升级，供应无法满足快速复苏的需求，显得供需更加不平衡，进一步推高了通胀。美国劳动力市场持续复苏，2月私人企业非农就业人数增加了67.8 万， 失业率为 3.8%，但薪资增长令人费解的疲软，月环比增长为 0.0%，年同比增长 5.1%（1月这两个数据分别为 0.7%和 5.7%）。杰弗瑞·杨警告说，近期，强劲的数据（非农就业人数和失业率）的影响超过了疲软数据（薪资增长）的影响。但是，如果薪资增长的疲软不是一个意外，那么就是薪资增长赶 不上通货膨胀的早期信号，这将导致中期经济增长放缓。 美联储仍需加息，否则将面临重蹈上世纪70年代覆辙的风险：在供应端压力正在涌入，变成需求端的通胀，却没有加息。 由于俄罗斯是铝罐、飞机和建筑所用金属的主要供应国，还是世界上最大的钾肥和氮肥供应国之一，所以短期来看，西方对俄罗斯发动制裁还将会导致机械制造和农产品的成本上涨。多位华尔街人士对《财经》记者指出，最令人担心的结果是，地缘政治危机使美国通胀从一个阶段性问题演变成一个长期性问题。粮食危机逼近？乌克兰素有“欧洲粮仓”之称，是玉米和小麦出口大国，据业内估算，乌克兰先前每月出口谷物五六百万吨，其中玉米约450万吨、小麦100万吨；而俄罗斯也是全球小麦出口大国。俄罗斯和乌克兰的小麦和玉米产量占了全球的近20%。联合国世界粮食计划署发言人朱莉·马歇尔警告说，俄乌两国供应链紊乱将危及全球数以百万计民众的粮食安全。早在地缘政治危机以及随后的制裁导致黑海小麦供应中断之前，全球小麦已经出现了供应紧张，因为主要出口国的库存下降。国际谷物理事会（IGC）的数据显示，在全球主要小麦出口国欧盟、俄罗斯、美国、加拿大、乌克兰、阿根廷、澳大利亚和哈萨克斯坦，2021/2022年度结束时的小麦期末库存预计为5700万吨，创下九年来的最低点。2月24日上午，全球小麦和玉米的价格已经出现了飙升。Gro Intelligence公司的首席执行官萨拉·门克认为，受俄乌冲突影响，包括小麦、玉米、植物油、生物燃料和化肥在内的多个重要领域或将迎来“非常非常困难的时期”。 在全球多地，一些面粉厂商和食品加工企业不可避免地受到了影响，而消费者也不得不掏更多钱购买食品。乌克兰局势升级使小麦价格涨至近14年来新高。赫克特指出，除了供需基本面和小麦特有的政治历史，在第一批种子为 2022 年作物播种之前，小麦的价格会更高。由于技术因素和基本面正在创造一场几乎完美的看涨风暴，小麦价格在未来几周和几个月内可能会大幅上涨。投资管理公司美国景顺基金高级基金经理李山泉指出，两个资源大国开战，加上美欧对俄罗斯的制裁，使原油价格创了历史新高、主要金属价格也大幅度蹿升。实际上，最为糟糕的可能是农业。俄乌是世界上小麦出口大国。小麦价格今年已经上涨了68%。但最糟糕的可能还未到来。在石油和天然气价格不很高的情况下，肥料价格已连续数年上升，石油和天然气作为肥料的主要成本，其价格高企必将使肥料价格接着上涨。在肥料减少、播种面积减少的情况下，减产已成定局。也就是说，来年的小麦价格可能比现在更高。今年世界的饭碗看来不妙！李山泉对《财经》记者说，制裁永远是作用力与反作用力的关系。欧美期望通过制裁让俄罗斯承担严重后果，但高油价对西方的后果也不算不严重，最后就是看谁能熬得住。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{".DJI":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":850,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0}],"hots":[{"id":9059749366,"gmtCreate":1654440456055,"gmtModify":1676535448098,"author":{"id":"3570965891716236","authorId":"3570965891716236","name":"Jiantew","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/47decb835fc524ae9d7113ae4c5a5033","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3570965891716236","idStr":"3570965891716236"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/INMD\">$InMode 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Ltd.(INMD)$</a>Mana pergi😭😭😭","text":"$InMode Ltd.(INMD)$Mana pergi😭😭😭","images":[{"img":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/1751f67356aff0bf6e3eb0e096d784de","width":"1125","height":"2196"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":4,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9064338331","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1290,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9039888395,"gmtCreate":1646004689227,"gmtModify":1676534080350,"author":{"id":"3570965891716236","authorId":"3570965891716236","name":"Jiantew","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/47decb835fc524ae9d7113ae4c5a5033","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3570965891716236","idStr":"3570965891716236"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Good job..","listText":"Good job..","text":"Good job..","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":4,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9039888395","repostId":"1162872053","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1162872053","kind":"news","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"为用户提供金融资讯、行情、数据，旨在帮助投资者理解世界，做投资决策。","home_visible":1,"media_name":"老虎资讯综合","id":"102","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba"},"pubTimestamp":1646002899,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1162872053?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2022-02-28 07:01","market":"hk","language":"zh","title":"This week's preview | Welcome non-farm payrolls amid geopolitical tensions! Baidu and Bilibili financial reports are coming","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1162872053","media":"老虎资讯综合","summary":"经济数据方面：一系列重磅数据出炉：中国将有官方PMI数据发布；美国非农就业数据、美国2月失业率、美国2月ADP就业人数等；财报方面：Zoom、Lucid、Sea、百度、哔哩哔哩、爱奇艺、微博等最新业绩","content":"<p><html><head></head><body>In terms of economic data: a series of heavy data have been released: China will have official PMI data released; U.S. non-farm payrolls data, U.S. February unemployment rate, U.S. February ADP payrolls, etc.; In terms of financial reports: the latest results of Zoom, Lucid, Sea, Baidu, Bilibili, iQiyi, Weibo, etc. will be announced soon; In terms of events: The National Two Sessions in 2022 will be held soon; Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell will deliver semi-annual monetary policy testimony; Atlanta Fed President Bostic and FOMC Permanent Voting Committee Williams will deliver speeches.<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e4df8266bb78705776a2a0a7770a67e7\" tg-width=\"865\" tg-height=\"943\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/><b>Monday (February 28) Keywords: Atlanta Fed President Bostic delivers a speech, Lucid/Zoom earnings report</b></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e5d8e4a483a975a5f53899ecc6728192\" tg-width=\"1124\" tg-height=\"117\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/><b>In terms of data:</b>You can pay attention to the Chicago PMI in February and the Dallas Fed Business Activity Index in February.</p><p><b>In terms of events: Mainly focus on the speech of Atlanta Fed President Bostic.</b>Although Bostic doesn't have a vote on the Federal Open Market Committee this year, he remains involved in the decision-making process.</p><p>At the previous Atlanta Fed Banking Outlook Conference, Bostic stated that if the economy develops as he expected, he still expects a rate hike in March.</p><p><b>Financial report:</b>\"Tesla rival\"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/LCID\">Lucid</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/ZM\">Zoom</a>Video Communication will release its financial report after the U.S. stock market closes on February 28, Eastern Time.</p><p><b>Tuesday (March 1) Keywords: China PMI, US February ISM manufacturing PMI, Baidu/Sea financial report</b></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ad0883877260316b40ad2b651bb2983d\" tg-width=\"1069\" tg-height=\"400\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><b>Data: Pay attention to China's February manufacturing PMI data.</b>China's manufacturing PMI in January was 50.1%, down 0.2 percentage points from the previous month and higher than the critical point.</p><p><b>In addition, the U.S. February ISM Manufacturing PMI will be released.</b>The Federal Reserve announced last week that U.S. manufacturing output expanded moderately in January, reversing the previous month's decline. Utility output recorded the largest increase of 9.9%, prompting industrial production to expand by 1.4% last month; But the increase was smaller than expected, mainly due to the global semiconductor shortage, which caused auto production to decrease for two consecutive months.</p><p><b>In terms of events:</b>Pay attention to US President Biden's State of the Union address at a joint session of Congress.</p><p><b>Financial report:<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BIDU\">Baidu</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/IQ\">IQiyi</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/SE\">Sea</a>、</b><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TGT\">Target</a><b>The financial report will be released before the US stock market opens on March 1, Eastern Time</b>。<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/SOFI\">SoFi</a>And<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AMC\">AMC Cinemas</a>The financial report will be released after the U.S. stock market closes on March 1, Eastern Time.</p><p><b>Wednesday (March 2) Keywords: U.S. ADP, OPEC + meeting, Powell congressional testimony, Snowlake earnings report</b></p><p><b></b><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/532cd54ca091bef24049960b708bda12\" tg-width=\"710\" tg-height=\"343\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/><b>In terms of data: You can pay attention to the number of ADP employment in the United States in February, which is known as the \"small non-agricultural sector\".</b>Previously, the decline in ADP employment data in January was the largest since the early days of the epidemic, and it was also the first time that a decrease in employment was reported since December 2020.</p><p><b>In terms of events: Federal Reserve Chairman Powell will testify before Congress on March 2 and 3, Eastern Time.</b>This may be his last public speech on monetary policy before starting the rate hike, and the market will pay attention to his remarks on how the Russia-Ukraine conflict will affect Fed policy.</p><p>In his pre-submitted hearing speech, Powell expressed his commitment to achieving the Fed's monetary policy goals, namely maximum employment and price stability, and reiterated that rate hike will be appropriate soon, and the U.S. economic slowdown caused by problems such as the Omicron mutant strain should be temporary.</p><p><b>Financial report:</b><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/SNOW\">Snowflake</a>The financial report will be announced after the U.S. stock market closes on March 2, Eastern Time.</p><p><b>Thursday (March 3) Keywords: U.S. initial jobless claims, U.S. ISM non-manufacturing PMI, Bilibili/Weibo financial report</b></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8438844332220fc1e33ce5ca91969abd\" tg-width=\"710\" tg-height=\"173\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><b>In terms of data:</b>Pay attention to the number of initial jobless claims in the United States, the ISM non-manufacturing PMI in the United States, etc.</p><p>The growth rate of the U.S. service industry continues to slow down, and companies continue to be affected by supply chain issues related to the novel coronavirus pneumonia epidemic. Constraints include capacity constraints, demand-pulled inflation, logistics challenges and labor shortages.</p><p><b>In terms of events:</b>The Federal Reserve will release Beige Book on economic conditions.</p><p><b>Financial report:</b><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BILI\">Bilibili</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/WB\">Weibo</a>The financial report will be released before the U.S. stock market opens on March 3, Eastern Time.</p><p><b>Friday (March 4) Keywords: U.S. unemployment rate in February, U.S. non-farm payrolls in February, Federal Reserve voting committee Williams' speech</b></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e36598945f4fa0b5d103d633886d95d3\" tg-width=\"710\" tg-height=\"221\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/><b>The National Two Sessions in 2022 are about to be held.</b>Among them, the Fifth Session of the 13th National People's Congress will be held in Beijing on March 5, 2022, and the Fifth Session of the 13th National Committee of the Chinese People's Political Consultative Conference will be held in Beijing on March 4, 2022.</p><p><b>In terms of data: Focus on the U.S. unemployment rate in February and the seasonally adjusted non-farm employment population in February.</b>The United States created nearly 500,000 new non-farm jobs in January, and wages rose sharply. The minutes of the Federal Reserve's January meeting showed that the inflation rate in the United States is too high and the economy is close to full employment, which justifies a rate hike as soon as possible.</p><p>At the same time, the Federal Reserve has gradually recognized the rise in inflation, and subsequently made a critical shift in its view on inflation that continues to be above 2%, acknowledging that \"the imbalance between supply and demand related to the epidemic and the reopening of the economy continues to lead to rising inflation levels\" and No longer insists that inflation is temporary.</p><p><b>Events: FOMC permanent voting committee Williams will deliver a speech.</b>In previous speeches, Williams implicitly reinforced the signal that the Fed will rate hike by 25 basis points at its March meeting, even if core officials remain open about how many basis points rate hike will ultimately be needed.</p><p>Furthermore,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AAPL\">Apple</a>The company will hold its annual general meeting of shareholders online on March 4.</p><p></body></html></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>This week's preview | Welcome non-farm payrolls amid geopolitical tensions! 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Baidu and Bilibili financial reports are coming\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/102\">\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">老虎资讯综合 </p>\n<p class=\"h-time smaller\">2022-02-28 07:01</p>\n</div>\n</a>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><html><head></head><body>In terms of economic data: a series of heavy data have been released: China will have official PMI data released; U.S. non-farm payrolls data, U.S. February unemployment rate, U.S. February ADP payrolls, etc.; In terms of financial reports: the latest results of Zoom, Lucid, Sea, Baidu, Bilibili, iQiyi, Weibo, etc. will be announced soon; In terms of events: The National Two Sessions in 2022 will be held soon; Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell will deliver semi-annual monetary policy testimony; Atlanta Fed President Bostic and FOMC Permanent Voting Committee Williams will deliver speeches.<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e4df8266bb78705776a2a0a7770a67e7\" tg-width=\"865\" tg-height=\"943\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/><b>Monday (February 28) Keywords: Atlanta Fed President Bostic delivers a speech, Lucid/Zoom earnings report</b></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e5d8e4a483a975a5f53899ecc6728192\" tg-width=\"1124\" tg-height=\"117\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/><b>In terms of data:</b>You can pay attention to the Chicago PMI in February and the Dallas Fed Business Activity Index in February.</p><p><b>In terms of events: Mainly focus on the speech of Atlanta Fed President Bostic.</b>Although Bostic doesn't have a vote on the Federal Open Market Committee this year, he remains involved in the decision-making process.</p><p>At the previous Atlanta Fed Banking Outlook Conference, Bostic stated that if the economy develops as he expected, he still expects a rate hike in March.</p><p><b>Financial report:</b>\"Tesla rival\"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/LCID\">Lucid</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/ZM\">Zoom</a>Video Communication will release its financial report after the U.S. stock market closes on February 28, Eastern Time.</p><p><b>Tuesday (March 1) Keywords: China PMI, US February ISM manufacturing PMI, Baidu/Sea financial report</b></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ad0883877260316b40ad2b651bb2983d\" tg-width=\"1069\" tg-height=\"400\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><b>Data: Pay attention to China's February manufacturing PMI data.</b>China's manufacturing PMI in January was 50.1%, down 0.2 percentage points from the previous month and higher than the critical point.</p><p><b>In addition, the U.S. February ISM Manufacturing PMI will be released.</b>The Federal Reserve announced last week that U.S. manufacturing output expanded moderately in January, reversing the previous month's decline. Utility output recorded the largest increase of 9.9%, prompting industrial production to expand by 1.4% last month; But the increase was smaller than expected, mainly due to the global semiconductor shortage, which caused auto production to decrease for two consecutive months.</p><p><b>In terms of events:</b>Pay attention to US President Biden's State of the Union address at a joint session of Congress.</p><p><b>Financial report:<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BIDU\">Baidu</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/IQ\">IQiyi</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/SE\">Sea</a>、</b><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TGT\">Target</a><b>The financial report will be released before the US stock market opens on March 1, Eastern Time</b>。<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/SOFI\">SoFi</a>And<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AMC\">AMC Cinemas</a>The financial report will be released after the U.S. stock market closes on March 1, Eastern Time.</p><p><b>Wednesday (March 2) Keywords: U.S. ADP, OPEC + meeting, Powell congressional testimony, Snowlake earnings report</b></p><p><b></b><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/532cd54ca091bef24049960b708bda12\" tg-width=\"710\" tg-height=\"343\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/><b>In terms of data: You can pay attention to the number of ADP employment in the United States in February, which is known as the \"small non-agricultural sector\".</b>Previously, the decline in ADP employment data in January was the largest since the early days of the epidemic, and it was also the first time that a decrease in employment was reported since December 2020.</p><p><b>In terms of events: Federal Reserve Chairman Powell will testify before Congress on March 2 and 3, Eastern Time.</b>This may be his last public speech on monetary policy before starting the rate hike, and the market will pay attention to his remarks on how the Russia-Ukraine conflict will affect Fed policy.</p><p>In his pre-submitted hearing speech, Powell expressed his commitment to achieving the Fed's monetary policy goals, namely maximum employment and price stability, and reiterated that rate hike will be appropriate soon, and the U.S. economic slowdown caused by problems such as the Omicron mutant strain should be temporary.</p><p><b>Financial report:</b><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/SNOW\">Snowflake</a>The financial report will be announced after the U.S. stock market closes on March 2, Eastern Time.</p><p><b>Thursday (March 3) Keywords: U.S. initial jobless claims, U.S. ISM non-manufacturing PMI, Bilibili/Weibo financial report</b></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8438844332220fc1e33ce5ca91969abd\" tg-width=\"710\" tg-height=\"173\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><b>In terms of data:</b>Pay attention to the number of initial jobless claims in the United States, the ISM non-manufacturing PMI in the United States, etc.</p><p>The growth rate of the U.S. service industry continues to slow down, and companies continue to be affected by supply chain issues related to the novel coronavirus pneumonia epidemic. Constraints include capacity constraints, demand-pulled inflation, logistics challenges and labor shortages.</p><p><b>In terms of events:</b>The Federal Reserve will release Beige Book on economic conditions.</p><p><b>Financial report:</b><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BILI\">Bilibili</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/WB\">Weibo</a>The financial report will be released before the U.S. stock market opens on March 3, Eastern Time.</p><p><b>Friday (March 4) Keywords: U.S. unemployment rate in February, U.S. non-farm payrolls in February, Federal Reserve voting committee Williams' speech</b></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e36598945f4fa0b5d103d633886d95d3\" tg-width=\"710\" tg-height=\"221\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/><b>The National Two Sessions in 2022 are about to be held.</b>Among them, the Fifth Session of the 13th National People's Congress will be held in Beijing on March 5, 2022, and the Fifth Session of the 13th National Committee of the Chinese People's Political Consultative Conference will be held in Beijing on March 4, 2022.</p><p><b>In terms of data: Focus on the U.S. unemployment rate in February and the seasonally adjusted non-farm employment population in February.</b>The United States created nearly 500,000 new non-farm jobs in January, and wages rose sharply. The minutes of the Federal Reserve's January meeting showed that the inflation rate in the United States is too high and the economy is close to full employment, which justifies a rate hike as soon as possible.</p><p>At the same time, the Federal Reserve has gradually recognized the rise in inflation, and subsequently made a critical shift in its view on inflation that continues to be above 2%, acknowledging that \"the imbalance between supply and demand related to the epidemic and the reopening of the economy continues to lead to rising inflation levels\" and No longer insists that inflation is temporary.</p><p><b>Events: FOMC permanent voting committee Williams will deliver a speech.</b>In previous speeches, Williams implicitly reinforced the signal that the Fed will rate hike by 25 basis points at its March meeting, even if core officials remain open about how many basis points rate hike will ultimately be needed.</p><p>Furthermore,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AAPL\">Apple</a>The company will hold its annual general meeting of shareholders online on March 4.</p><p></body></html></p>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/fd680cd945fd32917c8ece66ec685e5f","relate_stocks":{".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite",".DJI":"道琼斯",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index"},"source_url":"","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1162872053","content_text":"经济数据方面：一系列重磅数据出炉：中国将有官方PMI数据发布；美国非农就业数据、美国2月失业率、美国2月ADP就业人数等；财报方面：Zoom、Lucid、Sea、百度、哔哩哔哩、爱奇艺、微博等最新业绩即将公布；事件方面：2022年全国两会召开在即；美联储主席鲍威尔将发表半年度货币政策证词；亚特兰大联储主席博斯蒂克及FOMC常任票委威廉姆斯将发表讲话。周一(2月28日)关键词：亚特兰大联储主席博斯蒂克发表讲话、Lucid/Zoom财报数据方面：可留意美国2月芝加哥PMI、美国2月达拉斯联储商业活动指数。事件方面：主要关注亚特兰大联储主席博斯蒂克的讲话。尽管博斯蒂克今年在联邦公开市场委员会没有投票权，但他仍参与决策过程。在此前的亚特兰大联储银行业展望会议上，博斯蒂克曾表态称，如果经济如他预期的那样发展，目前仍预计3月将会加息。财报方面：“特斯拉劲敌”Lucid、Zoom视频通讯将于美东时间2月28日美股盘后发布财报。周二(3月1日)关键词：中国PMI、美国二月ISM制造业PMI、百度/Sea财报数据方面：关注中国2月制造业PMI数据。1月中国制造业PMI为50.1%，比上月回落0.2个百分点，高于临界点。此外，美国二月ISM制造业PMI将公布。美联储上周公布，美国1月份制造业产出适度扩张，扭转了前个月的跌势。公用事业产出创下9.9%的最大增幅，促使上个月的工业生产扩张1.4%；但增幅比预期小，这主要是因为全球半导体短缺，导致汽车产量连续两个月减少。事件方面：关注美国总统拜登在国会联席会议上发表国情咨文。财报方面：百度、爱奇艺、Sea、塔吉特将于美东时间3月1日美股盘前发布财报。SoFi和AMC院线将于美东时间3月1日美股盘后发布财报。周三(3月2日)关键词：美国ADP、OPEC+会议、鲍威尔国会证词、Snowlake财报 数据方面：可关注有“小非农”之称的美国2月ADP就业人数。此前1月ADP就业数据下滑幅度为疫情初期以来最大，也是2020年12月来首次报告就业人数减少。事件方面：美联储主席鲍威尔将于美东时间3月2日和3日在国会作证，这可能是在开始加息之前他最后一次就货币政策发表公开讲话，市场将关注他关于俄乌冲突将如何影响美联储政策的言论。在其事先提交的听证会讲稿中，鲍威尔表示会致力于实现美联储的货币政策目标，即最大就业和价格稳定，并重申很快加息将是适宜的，奥密克戎变异毒株等问题造成的美国经济放缓应当是暂时的。财报方面：Snowflake将于美东时间3月2日美股盘后公布财报。周四(3月3日)关键词：美国初请失业金人数、美国ISM非制造业PMI、哔哩哔哩/微博财报数据方面：关注美国初请失业金人数、美国ISM非制造业PMI等。美国服务业增速正持续放缓，企业继续受到与新冠肺炎疫情相关的供应链问题影响，制约因素包括产能限制、需求拉动型通货膨胀、物流挑战和劳动力短缺等。事件方面：美联储将公布经济状况褐皮书。财报方面：哔哩哔哩、微博将于美东时间3月3日美股盘前发布财报。周五(3月4日)关键词：美国2月失业率、美国2月非农就业人口、美联储票委威廉姆斯讲话2022年全国两会召开在即，其中，十三届全国人大五次会议将于2022年3月5日在北京召开，全国政协十三届五次会议将于2022年3月4日在北京召开。数据方面：重点关注美国2月失业率及2月季调后非农就业人口。美国1月新增非农就业近50万，且薪资大幅度上升。美联储1月会议纪要显示，美国通胀率过高，经济接近充分就业，有理由尽快进行一次加息。同时，美联储还逐渐认知到通胀的上升，且随后对持续高于2%的通胀的看法出现关键性转变，承认“与疫情和经济重新开放相关的供需失衡继续导致通胀水平上升”，并不再坚称通胀是暂时性的。事件方面：FOMC常任票委威廉姆斯将发表讲话。威廉姆斯曾在此前讲话中，含蓄地强化了美联储将在3月会议上加息25个基点的信号，即使核心官员仍然对最终需要加息多少基点持开放态度。此外，苹果公司将于3月4日在线上举行年度股东大会。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{".DJI":0.9,".SPX":0.9,".IXIC":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":762,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9005331823,"gmtCreate":1642170379055,"gmtModify":1676533688675,"author":{"id":"3570965891716236","authorId":"3570965891716236","name":"Jiantew","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/47decb835fc524ae9d7113ae4c5a5033","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3570965891716236","idStr":"3570965891716236"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"👍 like","listText":"👍 like","text":"👍 like","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":4,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9005331823","repostId":"2203715446","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"2203715446","kind":"highlight","pubTimestamp":1642151893,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/2203715446?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2022-01-14 17:18","market":"sh","language":"zh","title":"As the Nasdaq pulls back, these low-valued technology stocks are starting to \"absorb money\" mode","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2203715446","media":"智通财经网","summary":"近期美股市场高估值科技股暴跌，这一趋势似乎为低估值老牌科技股的“逆流而上”增添了新的驱动力。这些科技公司大部分拥有高额的利润，但股票交易价格相比于高估值科技股往往处于较低水平。PC市场两大巨头惠普和戴","content":"<p><html><head></head><body>Recently, high-valued technology stocks in the U.S. stock market have plummeted. This trend seems to add new to the \"upstream\" of low-valued veteran technology stocks<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/838275\">Driving force</a>。 Most of these technology companies have high profits, but their stock trading prices tend to be at a lower level compared to high-valued technology stocks.</p><p>Two giants in the PC market<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/HPQ\">Hewlett-Packard</a>And<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/DELL\">Dell</a>Technology is one of the rare winners among tech stocks this year. The recent surge in U.S. bond yields has prompted investors to turn to cheaper and more profitable companies, while beginning to sell off high valuations that have outperformed the broader market during a COVID-19 pandemic. technology stock.</p><p>For these two PC giants, PC shipments in 2021 will hit a new high in nearly 10 years, which will also promote their stock prices to rise against the trend. The latest statistics released by IDC yesterday show that global personal computer (PC) shipments in 2021 The volume increased by 14.8% year-on-year to 349 million units, a new high since 2012.</p><p>\"We have found better stock allocation targets in high-quality growth areas.\" Kevin Caron, senior portfolio investment fund manager at Washington Crossing Advisors, which manages $7 billion in assets. \"<b>Low-valuation technology stocks are chosen because we can find companies with low debt levels, high profitability, and predictable businesses. \"</b></p><p>According to statistics,<b>Since the beginning of this year, the technology-dominated Nasdaq 100 index has fallen by 5.05%. At the same time, the two PC giants Hewlett-Packard and Dell have risen by 2.73% and 7.12% respectively.</b>, the latest data shows that both companies expect less than 9 times P/E in the next 12 months, and both stocks easily outperformed the Nasdaq 100 index in the half-year period.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a03507a7540adce23b71c2e6190aafef\" tg-width=\"1200\" tg-height=\"675\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><b>Another Undervalued Tech Stock<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/VMW\">Weirui</a>Since the beginning of this year, it has increased by 6.49%, far exceeding the Nasdaq 100 index.</b>On Thursday, Monness Crespi Hardt & Co upgraded the stock to Buy. While investors have been looking at software companies with high growth trends, the investment outfit wrote: \"We now believe that the market will begin to pay more attention to the company's unique value proposition.\"</p><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/JPM\">JPMorgan Chase</a>\"Some value stock valuations are the lowest relative growth stocks since the tech bubble,\" David Kelly, chief global strategist at Asset Management, wrote in a note this week, adding that large tech stocks, including<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AAPL\">Apple</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MSFT\">Microsoft</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AMZN\">Amazon</a>And well-known companies such as Alphabet, with higher risk ratings than three years ago, while potential returns may be lower. \"</p><p>Bernstein analyst Toni Sacconaghi advises investors to favor low-valued technology stocks in the near term. He wrote in the report: \"Among the 20% of stocks with the lowest valuation,<b>Earnings growth estimates for the 5-year period are the highest estimates in more than 10 years.</b>\"Sacconaghi also wrote in the research report:\" These stocks performed poorly in the second half of 2021, while the valuation differential between growth stocks and value stocks showed a significant widening trend. \"</p><p>Sacconaghi believes that the most expensive companies in the industry will face more risk, but HP,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/IBM\">IBM</a>The risk profile of established technology companies such as Dell and Dell is good and there is plenty of room for valuation improvement.<b>He upgraded his rating on the stocks to Outperform from Market Perform earlier</b>。 According to statistics, IBM has risen slightly by 0.82% this year and still outperformed the Nasdaq 100 index.</p><p>Of course, there are still views on Wall Street in favor of high-valued tech stocks.<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/GS\">Goldman Sachs</a>Strategists said Thursday that long-term yields are likely to rise only slightly, implying that there is limited risk of further adjustments in growth stock valuations. They believe that there is still room for growth stocks to rise during slowing economic growth.</p><p></body></html></p>","source":"highlight_zhitongcaijin","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>As the Nasdaq pulls back, these low-valued technology stocks are starting to \"absorb money\" mode</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nAs the Nasdaq pulls back, these low-valued technology stocks are starting to \"absorb money\" mode\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">智通财经网</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2022-01-14 17:18</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><html><head></head><body>Recently, high-valued technology stocks in the U.S. stock market have plummeted. This trend seems to add new to the \"upstream\" of low-valued veteran technology stocks<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/838275\">Driving force</a>。 Most of these technology companies have high profits, but their stock trading prices tend to be at a lower level compared to high-valued technology stocks.</p><p>Two giants in the PC market<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/HPQ\">Hewlett-Packard</a>And<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/DELL\">Dell</a>Technology is one of the rare winners among tech stocks this year. The recent surge in U.S. bond yields has prompted investors to turn to cheaper and more profitable companies, while beginning to sell off high valuations that have outperformed the broader market during a COVID-19 pandemic. technology stock.</p><p>For these two PC giants, PC shipments in 2021 will hit a new high in nearly 10 years, which will also promote their stock prices to rise against the trend. The latest statistics released by IDC yesterday show that global personal computer (PC) shipments in 2021 The volume increased by 14.8% year-on-year to 349 million units, a new high since 2012.</p><p>\"We have found better stock allocation targets in high-quality growth areas.\" Kevin Caron, senior portfolio investment fund manager at Washington Crossing Advisors, which manages $7 billion in assets. \"<b>Low-valuation technology stocks are chosen because we can find companies with low debt levels, high profitability, and predictable businesses. \"</b></p><p>According to statistics,<b>Since the beginning of this year, the technology-dominated Nasdaq 100 index has fallen by 5.05%. At the same time, the two PC giants Hewlett-Packard and Dell have risen by 2.73% and 7.12% respectively.</b>, the latest data shows that both companies expect less than 9 times P/E in the next 12 months, and both stocks easily outperformed the Nasdaq 100 index in the half-year period.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a03507a7540adce23b71c2e6190aafef\" tg-width=\"1200\" tg-height=\"675\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><b>Another Undervalued Tech Stock<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/VMW\">Weirui</a>Since the beginning of this year, it has increased by 6.49%, far exceeding the Nasdaq 100 index.</b>On Thursday, Monness Crespi Hardt & Co upgraded the stock to Buy. While investors have been looking at software companies with high growth trends, the investment outfit wrote: \"We now believe that the market will begin to pay more attention to the company's unique value proposition.\"</p><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/JPM\">JPMorgan Chase</a>\"Some value stock valuations are the lowest relative growth stocks since the tech bubble,\" David Kelly, chief global strategist at Asset Management, wrote in a note this week, adding that large tech stocks, including<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AAPL\">Apple</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MSFT\">Microsoft</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AMZN\">Amazon</a>And well-known companies such as Alphabet, with higher risk ratings than three years ago, while potential returns may be lower. \"</p><p>Bernstein analyst Toni Sacconaghi advises investors to favor low-valued technology stocks in the near term. He wrote in the report: \"Among the 20% of stocks with the lowest valuation,<b>Earnings growth estimates for the 5-year period are the highest estimates in more than 10 years.</b>\"Sacconaghi also wrote in the research report:\" These stocks performed poorly in the second half of 2021, while the valuation differential between growth stocks and value stocks showed a significant widening trend. \"</p><p>Sacconaghi believes that the most expensive companies in the industry will face more risk, but HP,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/IBM\">IBM</a>The risk profile of established technology companies such as Dell and Dell is good and there is plenty of room for valuation improvement.<b>He upgraded his rating on the stocks to Outperform from Market Perform earlier</b>。 According to statistics, IBM has risen slightly by 0.82% this year and still outperformed the Nasdaq 100 index.</p><p>Of course, there are still views on Wall Street in favor of high-valued tech stocks.<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/GS\">Goldman Sachs</a>Strategists said Thursday that long-term yields are likely to rise only slightly, implying that there is limited risk of further adjustments in growth stock valuations. They believe that there is still room for growth stocks to rise during slowing economic growth.</p><p></body></html></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> source：<a href=\"http://www.zhitongcaijing.com/content/detail/641093.html\">智通财经网</a></p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5d8fb95e65f042f352c6313989391357","relate_stocks":{"BK4561":"索罗斯持仓","SQQQ":"纳指三倍做空ETF","03086":"华夏纳指","BK4534":"瑞士信贷持仓","QNETCN":"纳斯达克中美互联网老虎指数","TQQQ":"纳指三倍做多ETF",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite","QQQ":"纳指100ETF","TTTN":"老虎中美互联网巨头ETF","BK4550":"红杉资本持仓"},"source_url":"http://www.zhitongcaijing.com/content/detail/641093.html","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/6ca2dcdccfa2217fb20a0351f4efe814","article_id":"2203715446","content_text":"近期美股市场高估值科技股暴跌，这一趋势似乎为低估值老牌科技股的“逆流而上”增添了新的驱动力。这些科技公司大部分拥有高额的利润，但股票交易价格相比于高估值科技股往往处于较低水平。PC市场两大巨头惠普和戴尔科技是今年科技股中少有的赢家，近期美债收益率的飙升促使投资者纷纷转向价格更便宜、利润水平更高的企业，同时开始抛售那些在新冠疫情期间表现优于大盘的高估值科技股。对于这两大PC巨头来说，2021年PC出货量创近10年新高也对其股价逆势上涨起到推动作用，IDC昨日公布的最新统计数据显示，2021年全球个人电脑(PC)出货量同比增长了14.8%，达到3.49亿台，创2012年以来新高。“我们在高质量增长领域找到了更好的股票配置标的。”Washington Crossing Advisors高级组合投资基金经理Kevin  Caron表示，该公司管理着70亿美元规模的资产。“之所以选择低估值科技股，是因为我们可以找到债务水平低、盈利水平高、业务具备可预测性的公司。”据统计，今年以来，以科技股为主的纳斯达克100指数跌幅达5.05%，与此同时，惠普和戴尔两家PC巨头分别上涨2.73%和7.12%，最新数据显示两家公司未来12个月预期市盈率均不到9倍水平，这两只股票在半年期都轻松跑赢纳斯达克100指数。另一只低估值科技股威睿今年以来涨幅达6.49%，远超纳斯达克100指数。周四，Monness Crespi Hardt &  Co将该股评级上调为“买入”。虽然投资者一直关注高增长趋势的软件公司，但该投资机构写道：“我们现在相信，市场将开始更多地关注该公司独特的价值主张。”摩根大通资产管理首席全球策略师David  Kelly本周在一份报告中写道：“部分价值股估值是自科技股泡沫以来相对成长股的最低水平。”他补充称，大型科技股，包括苹果、微软、亚马逊和Alphabet等知名公司，风险等级比三年前更高，而潜在回报率可能降低。”Bernstein分析师Toni  Sacconaghi建议投资者近期投资风格偏向估值较低的科技股，他在报告中写道：“在估值最低的这20%股票之中，5年期的盈利增长预期为10多年来最高的预期水平。”Sacconaghi在研究报告中还写到：“这些股票在2021年下半年表现不佳，同时成长股和价值股之间的估值差呈显著扩大趋势。”Sacconaghi认为，行业之中估值最昂贵的公司将面临更多风险，但惠普、IBM 和戴尔这些老牌科技公司的风险状况良好且估值抬升空间足，他对这些股票的评级从之前的“与大盘持平”上调至“跑赢大盘”。据统计，IBM今年以来小幅上涨0.82%仍跑赢纳斯达克100指数。当然，华尔街仍有支持高估值科技股的观点。高盛策略师们周四表示，长期收益率可能只会小幅上升，这意味着成长型股票估值的进一步调整风险有限。他们认为，经济增长放缓期间成长股仍然有上行空间。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"TTTN":1,"QNETCN":1,"03086":1,"TQQQ":1,"SQQQ":1,".IXIC":1,"QQQ":1,"NQmain":1}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":796,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9022450460,"gmtCreate":1653573121950,"gmtModify":1676535306056,"author":{"id":"3570965891716236","authorId":"3570965891716236","name":"Jiantew","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/47decb835fc524ae9d7113ae4c5a5033","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3570965891716236","idStr":"3570965891716236"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/BABA\">$阿里巴巴(BABA)$</a>UP","listText":"<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/BABA\">$阿里巴巴(BABA)$</a>UP","text":"$阿里巴巴(BABA)$UP","images":[{"img":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/12f7e2e6f82e59753d2f24dc4738c097","width":"1125","height":"2885"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9022450460","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2829,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9085383247,"gmtCreate":1650643476380,"gmtModify":1676534770176,"author":{"id":"3570965891716236","authorId":"3570965891716236","name":"Jiantew","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/47decb835fc524ae9d7113ae4c5a5033","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3570965891716236","idStr":"3570965891716236"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/TSLA\">$特斯拉(TSLA)$</a>Great 😊&nbsp;","listText":"<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/TSLA\">$特斯拉(TSLA)$</a>Great 😊&nbsp;","text":"$特斯拉(TSLA)$Great 😊","images":[{"img":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/befc242abf693ed7a1c106144cb007d4","width":"1125","height":"2705"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9085383247","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":859,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9901628370,"gmtCreate":1659193089490,"gmtModify":1676536270401,"author":{"id":"3570965891716236","authorId":"3570965891716236","name":"Jiantew","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/47decb835fc524ae9d7113ae4c5a5033","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3570965891716236","idStr":"3570965891716236"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/INMD\">$InMode Ltd.(INMD)$</a>👍👍👍","listText":"<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/INMD\">$InMode Ltd.(INMD)$</a>👍👍👍","text":"$InMode Ltd.(INMD)$👍👍👍","images":[{"img":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/b541a641ce31a5bf563af3e51c81b014","width":"1125","height":"2196"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9901628370","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":3304,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9052460942,"gmtCreate":1655204010886,"gmtModify":1676535582164,"author":{"id":"3570965891716236","authorId":"3570965891716236","name":"Jiantew","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/47decb835fc524ae9d7113ae4c5a5033","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3570965891716236","idStr":"3570965891716236"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/INMD\">$InMode Ltd.(INMD)$</a>Upup&nbsp;","listText":"<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/INMD\">$InMode Ltd.(INMD)$</a>Upup&nbsp;","text":"$InMode Ltd.(INMD)$Upup","images":[{"img":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/726ec00ae0211b0ab776fca34cdfee60","width":"1125","height":"2196"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9052460942","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":3004,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9016252749,"gmtCreate":1649203106675,"gmtModify":1676534468508,"author":{"id":"3570965891716236","authorId":"3570965891716236","name":"Jiantew","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/47decb835fc524ae9d7113ae4c5a5033","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3570965891716236","idStr":"3570965891716236"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Great 👍 thank&nbsp;","listText":"Great 👍 thank&nbsp;","text":"Great 👍 thank","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9016252749","repostId":"2225014535","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"2225014535","kind":"highlight","pubTimestamp":1649199337,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/2225014535?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2022-04-06 06:55","market":"hk","language":"zh","title":"Is the upward momentum of US stocks fading? Repurchases hit five-year low in the first quarter","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2225014535","media":"华尔街见闻","summary":"一季度美银企业客户的美股回购金额与标普500市值之比处于五年来最低水平，较疫情爆发前的五年内平均水平低50%。以四周均值计算，企业客户回购规模最近出现2020年末以来首次同比下降。","content":"<p><html><head></head><body>Although last month<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/GS\">Goldman Sachs</a>It is expected that the scale of U.S. stock repurchases this year is expected to hit the highest annual record, but Bank of America's recent discovery poured cold water.</p><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BAC\">Bank of America</a>Jill Carey Hall, a U.S. stock strategist and head of U.S. stock mid-cap strategy, pointed out in the weekly stock market client capital flow trend report that although U.S. stock buybacks usually slow down every quarter before the earnings season, corporate customers are currently buying back The speed has dropped to its lowest weekly level in 12 months, and based on the average of a four-week period, the scale of buybacks has fallen year-on-year for the first time since the end of 2020.</p><p>As shown in the chart below of Bank of America, in the first quarter of this year, the ratio of the U.S. stock repurchase amount of corporate customers of Bank of America Securities to the market value of the S&P 500 was less than 0.06%, the lowest level since 2017. Moreover, buybacks in the first quarter were 50% lower than the five-year average before the outbreak.<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c0266bdc0003405cba70a1a906db09ff\" tg-width=\"500\" tg-height=\"206\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/>Buybacks are often seen as a major driver of the rise in U.S. stocks. Listed companies can reduce the number of shares of the company through repurchases, thereby pushing up the stock price and increasing the profit per share; Moreover, this can be used to reflect optimism about its prospects and confidence in its financial situation, thus effectively boosting investor sentiment.</p><p>In March, Goldman Sachs analysts raised their forecast for share buybacks this year to a record $1 trillion, up 12% from last year. Last Monday's Wall Street Journal article also mentioned that Goldman Sachs data showed that the scale of stock repurchases so far this year has reached a record $319 billion, compared with $267 billion in the same period last year.</p><p>This week's report by Bank of America strategists did not regard buybacks as the driving force for U.S. stocks to rise, but pointed out that the background of increased supply of IPO new shares and decreased demand for buybacks was the reversal of the decades-old bull market trend in U.S. stocks. They expect that in the face of political risks, Dividend is more likely to outweigh buybacks this year, the cost of borrowing will increase, valuations will be high, and the demand for dividends will increase.</p><p>Although Bank of America did not bluntly state the stimulus of buybacks to stock prices, before the release of Bank of America's above report,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/SBUX\">Starbucks</a>It was just announced on Monday that founder Schultz returned to the CEO position after five years, and also said that he would suspend the company's stock repurchase program. Starbucks fell nearly 6% intraday that day, closed down 3.7%, and closed down 4.5% on Tuesday. As of Tuesday's close, it fell by more than 8% in two days compared with last Friday's close.</p><p></body></html></p>","source":"wallstreetcn_api","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Is the upward momentum of US stocks fading? Repurchases hit five-year low in the first quarter</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nIs the upward momentum of US stocks fading? Repurchases hit five-year low in the first quarter\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">华尔街见闻</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2022-04-06 06:55</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><html><head></head><body>Although last month<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/GS\">Goldman Sachs</a>It is expected that the scale of U.S. stock repurchases this year is expected to hit the highest annual record, but Bank of America's recent discovery poured cold water.</p><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BAC\">Bank of America</a>Jill Carey Hall, a U.S. stock strategist and head of U.S. stock mid-cap strategy, pointed out in the weekly stock market client capital flow trend report that although U.S. stock buybacks usually slow down every quarter before the earnings season, corporate customers are currently buying back The speed has dropped to its lowest weekly level in 12 months, and based on the average of a four-week period, the scale of buybacks has fallen year-on-year for the first time since the end of 2020.</p><p>As shown in the chart below of Bank of America, in the first quarter of this year, the ratio of the U.S. stock repurchase amount of corporate customers of Bank of America Securities to the market value of the S&P 500 was less than 0.06%, the lowest level since 2017. Moreover, buybacks in the first quarter were 50% lower than the five-year average before the outbreak.<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c0266bdc0003405cba70a1a906db09ff\" tg-width=\"500\" tg-height=\"206\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/>Buybacks are often seen as a major driver of the rise in U.S. stocks. Listed companies can reduce the number of shares of the company through repurchases, thereby pushing up the stock price and increasing the profit per share; Moreover, this can be used to reflect optimism about its prospects and confidence in its financial situation, thus effectively boosting investor sentiment.</p><p>In March, Goldman Sachs analysts raised their forecast for share buybacks this year to a record $1 trillion, up 12% from last year. Last Monday's Wall Street Journal article also mentioned that Goldman Sachs data showed that the scale of stock repurchases so far this year has reached a record $319 billion, compared with $267 billion in the same period last year.</p><p>This week's report by Bank of America strategists did not regard buybacks as the driving force for U.S. stocks to rise, but pointed out that the background of increased supply of IPO new shares and decreased demand for buybacks was the reversal of the decades-old bull market trend in U.S. stocks. They expect that in the face of political risks, Dividend is more likely to outweigh buybacks this year, the cost of borrowing will increase, valuations will be high, and the demand for dividends will increase.</p><p>Although Bank of America did not bluntly state the stimulus of buybacks to stock prices, before the release of Bank of America's above report,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/SBUX\">Starbucks</a>It was just announced on Monday that founder Schultz returned to the CEO position after five years, and also said that he would suspend the company's stock repurchase program. Starbucks fell nearly 6% intraday that day, closed down 3.7%, and closed down 4.5% on Tuesday. As of Tuesday's close, it fell by more than 8% in two days compared with last Friday's close.</p><p></body></html></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> source：<a href=\"https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3656095\">华尔街见闻</a></p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/55eb327f580527889cf30bafa92692ae","relate_stocks":{"BK4534":"瑞士信贷持仓","BK4535":"淡马锡持仓","GS":"高盛","BK4581":"高盛持仓","BK4127":"投资银行业与经纪业","BK4552":"Archegos爆仓风波概念","BK4504":"桥水持仓","BK4559":"巴菲特持仓","BK4533":"AQR资本管理(全球第二大对冲基金)","BK4207":"综合性银行","BK4553":"喜马拉雅资本持仓","BAC":"美国银行","BK4209":"餐馆","BK4550":"红杉资本持仓","SBUX":"星巴克"},"source_url":"https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3656095","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2225014535","content_text":"虽然上月高盛预计今年的美股回购规模有望创最高年度纪录，但美银的新近发现泼了冷水。美国银行的美股策略师、美股中盘策略主管Jill Carey Hall在每周发布的股市客户资金流趋势报告中指出，虽然美股回购通常在财报季前的每个季度会放缓，但企业客户目前的回购速度已经降至12个月来最低单周水平，以四周期间的均值计算，回购规模自2020年末以来首次同比下降。如美银下图所示，今年一季度，美银证券企业客户的美股回购金额与标普500市值之比不足0.06%，处于2017年来最低水平。而且，一季度的回购之比较疫情爆发前的五年内平均水平低50%。回购往往被视为美股上涨的一大推手。上市企业可以通过回购减少公司的股票数量，从而推高股价，提高每股利润；而且可以借助此举反映对其前景的乐观态度和对财务状况的信心，从而有效提振投资者的情绪。今年3月，高盛分析师将今年的股票回购预期规模上调至创纪录的1万亿美元，比去年增长了12%。上周一华尔街见闻文章又提到，高盛数据显示，今年迄今为止股票回购规模已经达到创纪录的3190亿美元，而去年同期的规模为2670亿美元。美银策略师本周报告并没有将回购视为美股走高的动因，而是指出，IPO新股供应增加和回购需求减少的背景是，美股几十年牛市的趋势逆转。他们预计，在面临政治风险时，今年更有可能股息规模超过回购，举债的成本将增加，估值高企，派息的需求增加。虽然美银没有直言回购对股价的刺激，但在美银上述报告发布前，星巴克本周一刚宣布，创始人舒尔茨时隔五年重返CEO职位掌舵，同时还表示，将暂停公司的股票回购计划。星巴克当天盘中跌近6%，收跌3.7%，周二又收跌4.5%，截至周二收盘，两日内较上周五收盘跌去8%以上。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"GS":0.9,"SBUX":0.9,"ESmain":0.9,"BAC":0.77}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1573,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9038901756,"gmtCreate":1646705512419,"gmtModify":1676534153118,"author":{"id":"3570965891716236","authorId":"3570965891716236","name":"Jiantew","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/47decb835fc524ae9d7113ae4c5a5033","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3570965891716236","idStr":"3570965891716236"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Great information&nbsp;","listText":"Great information&nbsp;","text":"Great information","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9038901756","repostId":"2214138170","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"2214138170","kind":"highlight","pubTimestamp":1645917536,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/2214138170?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2022-02-27 07:18","market":"us","language":"en","title":"If You Invested $5,000 in InMode in 2020, This Is How Much You Would Have Today","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2214138170","media":"Motley Fool","summary":"You'd have more than doubled your money.","content":"<div>\n<p>As a medical equipment company focused on developing innovative devices to perform aesthetic procedures, InMode (NASDAQ:INMD) has a lot to offer investors.With its snappy revenue growth, robust ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://www.fool.com/investing/2022/02/26/if-you-invested-5000-in-inmode-in-2020-this-is-how/\">Source Link</a>\n\n</div>\n","source":"fool_stock","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>If You Invested $5,000 in InMode in 2020, This Is How Much You Would Have Today</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nIf You Invested $5,000 in InMode in 2020, This Is How Much You Would Have Today\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2022-02-27 07:18 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://www.fool.com/investing/2022/02/26/if-you-invested-5000-in-inmode-in-2020-this-is-how/><strong>Motley Fool</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>As a medical equipment company focused on developing innovative devices to perform aesthetic procedures, InMode (NASDAQ:INMD) has a lot to offer investors.With its snappy revenue growth, robust ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://www.fool.com/investing/2022/02/26/if-you-invested-5000-in-inmode-in-2020-this-is-how/\">Source Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"INMD":"InMode Ltd.","BK4082":"医疗保健设备"},"source_url":"https://www.fool.com/investing/2022/02/26/if-you-invested-5000-in-inmode-in-2020-this-is-how/","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2214138170","content_text":"As a medical equipment company focused on developing innovative devices to perform aesthetic procedures, InMode (NASDAQ:INMD) has a lot to offer investors.With its snappy revenue growth, robust profitability, and consistent investment in research and development, there are many factors supporting its long-term performance -- and that's been true for quite some time. Over the last 12 months, its shares have risen by 13.7%, topping the market's increase of 10.4%.But how much money would shareholders have made if they invested even further back, and what are the company's chances of replicating its run-up to the present? Let's crunch a few numbers and examine its business model to find out why it's successful.Image source: Getty Images.Pricing means it won't be hard to repeat successWhen it comes to cosmetic medical procedures, people only have a few options. One path is plastic surgery, which is highly effective, but it's invasive and can cost upward of $5,000 per procedure.Another avenue is less-invasive techniques like laser treatments, which can cost around $2,500 per treatment, but aren't always on par with surgery in terms of the results. Plus, many procedures aren't possible with laser treatments, which limits their usefulness.There is one more option. InMode's specialty is less-invasive radiofrequency devices that are inexpensive and deliver surgery-like results for patients. The company makes a variety of machines with services including body remodeling, skin tightening, and even muscle toning. InMode's devices punch above their price point when it comes to convenience and efficacy, which is a competitive advantage. A full course of treatment with its Morpheus skin remodeling device can cost as little as $2,250 and patients don't require any downtime afterward.That's why it's not surprising that its twelve-month trailing revenue has increased by more than 225% since 2019, reaching $357.5 million. And, its quarterly net income has grown by more than 420% in the last three years.Holding this stock has paid off handsomelyBut how much did that hot run of growth end up helping shareholders who started a position in early 2020?At the very start of 2020, shares of InMode were going for near $21. Now, they're close to $40.5, which means investors from early 2020 would be up by around 104%. If you'd bought $5,000 worth of shares, you'd currently have roughly $10,200. That's not half bad, considering that the market's total return in that period was only 35.3%.^SPX data by YChartsBut if you had sold your shares when InMode's stock was at its height near $95 in early October 2021, you'd have made an even more impressive sum of $20,100.There's a good chance that the company will return to that price level over the next couple of years. In fact, the average of four price estimates made by professional analysts who routinely cover the stock is $82.7. So if the company continues to expand at its present rate, its stock price could shoot to new highs, rewarding investors who held the stock through its recent downturn.More growth is on the wayLooking into the future, InMode is in a position to keep flourishing. Though its shares are down by more than 43.3% this year, it has a few growth drivers that should perk things up quite quickly.The company is expanding into international markets, 17 of which it entered for the first time in 2021. And it'll continue to expand its portfolio of devices so it can steal market share from traditional plastic surgery and laser treatments. Furthermore, InMode will also keep developing and selling new consumables like replacement handpieces for its equipment, as its business uses a razor-and-blade model.In terms of the scope of its research and development (R&D) work on new hardware, investors will be pleased to hear that annual R&D expenditures have increased by 67.2% since January 2020, reaching $9.5 million for 2021. At the same time, R&D costs have decreased as a percentage of annual revenue, which means that new device development can sustainably proceed at the current pace. Management thinks that pace is sufficient to continue launching two new pieces of equipment per year.Financially, there's little standing in the company's way. Its debt of $4.5 million is negligible, and it has $415.9 million in cash to fuel its efforts.So if you don't want to miss out on the next leg of this company's growth, it might be a good idea to consider an investment. There's no guarantee that the stock will repeat its run-up over the last few years, but it's entirely possible that it'll keep outperforming the market given its business fundamentals.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"INMD":1}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1476,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9093697559,"gmtCreate":1643603278091,"gmtModify":1676533835358,"author":{"id":"3570965891716236","authorId":"3570965891716236","name":"Jiantew","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/47decb835fc524ae9d7113ae4c5a5033","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3570965891716236","idStr":"3570965891716236"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"👌very good 😊&nbsp;","listText":"👌very good 😊&nbsp;","text":"👌very good 😊","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9093697559","repostId":"1121905464","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1121905464","kind":"news","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"为用户提供金融资讯、行情、数据，旨在帮助投资者理解世界，做投资决策。","home_visible":1,"media_name":"老虎资讯综合","id":"102","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba"},"pubTimestamp":1642411108,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1121905464?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2022-01-17 17:18","market":"sh","language":"zh","title":"Reminder: List of closing arrangements for major markets during the Spring Festival holiday","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1121905464","media":"老虎资讯综合","summary":"农历新年假期即将来临，部分交易所的开市和收市时间有所变动，敬请各位投资者密切留意。港股：2022年1月31日（星期一）半日交易，下午休市。2022年2月1日（星期二）至2月3日（星期四）休市。美股：","content":"<p><html><head></head><body>The Lunar New Year holiday is approaching, and the opening and closing times of some exchanges have changed. Investors are requested to pay close attention.<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2aef2112c6fa0ba265b518492f29cb15\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"1085\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><b>Hong Kong stocks:</b></p><p>Half-day trading on Monday, January 31, 2022, closed in the afternoon.</p><p>Closed from Tuesday, February 1 to Thursday, February 3, 2022.</p><p><b>US stocks:</b></p><p>Market open as usual.</p><p><b>A shares:</b></p><p>Closed from Monday, January 31 to Friday, February 4, 2022.</p><p><b>Australian stocks:</b></p><p>Market open as usual.</p><p><b>Singapore market:</b></p><p>Half-day trading on Monday, January 31, 2022, closed in the afternoon.</p><p>Closed from Tuesday, February 1 to Wednesday, February 2, 2022.</p><p><b>Hong Kong Stock Connect:</b></p><p>The Hong Kong Stock Connect service will not be provided from January 27 (Thursday) to February 4, 2022 (Friday).</p><p><b>Shanghai Stock Connect and Shenzhen Stock Connect:</b></p><p>No service will be available from Monday, January 31 to Friday, February 4, 2022.</p><p>No service will be available from Monday, January 31 to Friday, February 4, 2022.</p><p></body></html></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Reminder: List of closing arrangements for major markets during the Spring Festival holiday</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nReminder: List of closing arrangements for major markets during the Spring Festival holiday\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/102\">\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">老虎资讯综合 </p>\n<p class=\"h-time smaller\">2022-01-17 17:18</p>\n</div>\n</a>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><html><head></head><body>The Lunar New Year holiday is approaching, and the opening and closing times of some exchanges have changed. Investors are requested to pay close attention.<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2aef2112c6fa0ba265b518492f29cb15\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"1085\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><b>Hong Kong stocks:</b></p><p>Half-day trading on Monday, January 31, 2022, closed in the afternoon.</p><p>Closed from Tuesday, February 1 to Thursday, February 3, 2022.</p><p><b>US stocks:</b></p><p>Market open as usual.</p><p><b>A shares:</b></p><p>Closed from Monday, January 31 to Friday, February 4, 2022.</p><p><b>Australian stocks:</b></p><p>Market open as usual.</p><p><b>Singapore market:</b></p><p>Half-day trading on Monday, January 31, 2022, closed in the afternoon.</p><p>Closed from Tuesday, February 1 to Wednesday, February 2, 2022.</p><p><b>Hong Kong Stock Connect:</b></p><p>The Hong Kong Stock Connect service will not be provided from January 27 (Thursday) to February 4, 2022 (Friday).</p><p><b>Shanghai Stock Connect and Shenzhen Stock Connect:</b></p><p>No service will be available from Monday, January 31 to Friday, February 4, 2022.</p><p>No service will be available from Monday, January 31 to Friday, February 4, 2022.</p><p></body></html></p>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/752af43ca78e3ed4d3be0dbeaf4ea23c","relate_stocks":{"399001":"深证成指","399006":"创业板指","STI.SI":"富时新加坡海峡指数","HSCEI":"国企指数",".DJI":"道琼斯",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index","000001.SH":"上证指数","HSCCI":"红筹指数","HSTECH":"恒生科技指数","HSI":"恒生指数",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite"},"source_url":"","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1121905464","content_text":"农历新年假期即将来临，部分交易所的开市和收市时间有所变动，敬请各位投资者密切留意。港股：2022年1月31日（星期一）半日交易，下午休市。2022年2月1日（星期二）至2月3日（星期四）休市。美股：照常开市。A股：2022年1月31日（星期一）至2月4日（星期五）休市。澳股：照常开市。新加坡市场：2022年1月31日（星期一）半日交易，下午休市。2022年2月1日（星期二）至2月2日（星期三）休市。港股通：2022年1月27日（星期四）至2月4日（星期五）不提供港股通服务。沪股通、深股通：2022年1月31日（星期一）至2月4日（星期五）不提供服务。2022年1月31日（星期一）至2月4日（星期五）不提供服务。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"399001":0.9,"399006":0.9,"HSTECH":0.9,"000001.SH":0.9,"HSCCI":0.9,"STI.SI":0.9,".DJI":0.9,".SPX":0.9,"HSCEI":0.9,"HSI":0.9,".IXIC":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":864,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9090638872,"gmtCreate":1643161307400,"gmtModify":1676533780614,"author":{"id":"3570965891716236","authorId":"3570965891716236","name":"Jiantew","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/47decb835fc524ae9d7113ae4c5a5033","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3570965891716236","idStr":"3570965891716236"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Very good 👍 thanks&nbsp;","listText":"Very good 👍 thanks&nbsp;","text":"Very good 👍 thanks","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9090638872","repostId":"1166704589","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1166704589","kind":"news","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"为用户提供金融资讯、行情、数据，旨在帮助投资者理解世界，做投资决策。","home_visible":1,"media_name":"老虎资讯综合","id":"102","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba"},"pubTimestamp":1643160128,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1166704589?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2022-01-26 09:22","market":"sh","language":"zh","title":"Hong Kong stocks open | Hang Seng Index rose 0.41%, technology stocks rebounded","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1166704589","media":"老虎资讯综合","summary":"1月26日讯，昨日大跌的港股反弹，恒指涨0.41%，国指涨0.32%，恒生科技指数涨0.52%。盘面上，大型科技股多数高开，网易涨超4%，百度、小米、京东、腾讯皆上涨，美团、阿里巴巴小幅低开；燃气股、","content":"<p><html><head></head><body>On January 26, Hong Kong stocks, which fell sharply yesterday, rebounded. The Hang Seng Index rose 0.41%, the State Index rose 0.32%, and the Hang Seng Technology Index rose 0.52%.<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c63de5980c668f0065e36397d4bf9d7b\" tg-width=\"840\" tg-height=\"470\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/>On the disk, most large technology stocks opened higher,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/09999\">NetEase</a>Rose more than 4%,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/09888\">Baidu</a>Millet,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/09618\">JD.com</a>, Tencent all rose, Meituan,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/09988\">Alibaba</a>Slight open low; Gas stocks and gold stocks were the top gainers,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/02688\">ENN Energy</a>Up 1.6%, photovoltaic stocks, biomedical stocks, mainland real estate stocks, and property management stocks generally rose.<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/00968\">Xinyi Solar</a>Up more than 3%; On the other hand, pork concept stocks, coal stocks, and traditional Chinese medicine stocks fell.<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/01093\">CSPC Pharmaceutical</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/03320\">China Resources Pharma</a>Down 1%.<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/00136\">Hengteng Network</a>Up nearly 9%, the company plans to pay a premium of about 9.17% to<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/00700\">Tencent Holdings</a>And Liu Xueheng issued a total of 120 million shares, raising a net of approximately HK $300 million.</p><p></body></html></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Hong Kong stocks open | Hang Seng Index rose 0.41%, technology stocks rebounded</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nHong Kong stocks open | Hang Seng Index rose 0.41%, technology stocks rebounded\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/102\">\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">老虎资讯综合 </p>\n<p class=\"h-time smaller\">2022-01-26 09:22</p>\n</div>\n</a>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><html><head></head><body>On January 26, Hong Kong stocks, which fell sharply yesterday, rebounded. The Hang Seng Index rose 0.41%, the State Index rose 0.32%, and the Hang Seng Technology Index rose 0.52%.<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c63de5980c668f0065e36397d4bf9d7b\" tg-width=\"840\" tg-height=\"470\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/>On the disk, most large technology stocks opened higher,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/09999\">NetEase</a>Rose more than 4%,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/09888\">Baidu</a>Millet,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/09618\">JD.com</a>, Tencent all rose, Meituan,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/09988\">Alibaba</a>Slight open low; Gas stocks and gold stocks were the top gainers,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/02688\">ENN Energy</a>Up 1.6%, photovoltaic stocks, biomedical stocks, mainland real estate stocks, and property management stocks generally rose.<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/00968\">Xinyi Solar</a>Up more than 3%; On the other hand, pork concept stocks, coal stocks, and traditional Chinese medicine stocks fell.<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/01093\">CSPC Pharmaceutical</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/03320\">China Resources Pharma</a>Down 1%.<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/00136\">Hengteng Network</a>Up nearly 9%, the company plans to pay a premium of about 9.17% to<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/00700\">Tencent Holdings</a>And Liu Xueheng issued a total of 120 million shares, raising a net of approximately HK $300 million.</p><p></body></html></p>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3e1ae3d0f75bebef8011736e9031acae","relate_stocks":{},"source_url":"","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1166704589","content_text":"1月26日讯，昨日大跌的港股反弹，恒指涨0.41%，国指涨0.32%，恒生科技指数涨0.52%。盘面上，大型科技股多数高开，网易涨超4%，百度、小米、京东、腾讯皆上涨，美团、阿里巴巴小幅低开；燃气股、黄金股涨幅居前，新奥能源涨1.6%，光伏股、生物医药股、内房股、物管股普遍上涨，信义光能涨超3%；另一方面，猪肉概念股、煤炭股、中药股走低，石药集团、华润医药跌1%。恒腾网络涨近9%，公司拟溢价约9.17%向腾讯控股及刘学恒合共发行1.2亿股，净筹约3亿港元。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":787,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":887484607,"gmtCreate":1632093844609,"gmtModify":1676530697484,"author":{"id":"3570965891716236","authorId":"3570965891716236","name":"Jiantew","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/47decb835fc524ae9d7113ae4c5a5033","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3570965891716236","idStr":"3570965891716236"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/PTRA\">$Proterra Inc.(PTRA)$</a>Good to hold it all d way","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/PTRA\">$Proterra Inc.(PTRA)$</a>Good to hold it all d way","text":"$Proterra Inc.(PTRA)$Good to hold it all d way","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1224512856c0a37570e0d1d5d0cff06c","width":"1125","height":"1601"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/887484607","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":463,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":339526724,"gmtCreate":1608953535568,"gmtModify":1704977085011,"author":{"id":"3570965891716236","authorId":"3570965891716236","name":"Jiantew","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/47decb835fc524ae9d7113ae4c5a5033","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3570965891716236","idStr":"3570965891716236"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"I have a question: I am a Malaysian who work in Malaysia, may I know which Malaysia bank can be&nbsp;used for&nbsp;depositing&nbsp;money into Tiger Broker?","listText":"I have a question: I am a Malaysian who work in Malaysia, may I know which Malaysia bank can be&nbsp;used for&nbsp;depositing&nbsp;money into Tiger Broker?","text":"I have a question: I am a Malaysian who work in Malaysia, may I know which Malaysia bank can be used for depositing money into Tiger Broker?","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/339526724","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":664,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[{"author":{"id":"3527667803686145","authorId":"3527667803686145","name":"社区成长助手","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2b7c7106b5c0c8b0037faa67439d898f","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"authorIdStr":"3527667803686145","idStr":"3527667803686145"},"content":"Finally, when you first post [compare heart] [compare heart] post, you can get more exposure by related stocks or related topics. If you want to create high-quality articles, please checkGuidelines for Tiger Community Creation","text":"Finally, when you first post [compare heart] [compare heart] post, you can get more exposure by related stocks or related topics. If you want to create high-quality articles, please checkGuidelines for Tiger Community Creation","html":"Finally, when you first post [compare heart] [compare heart] post, you can get more exposure by related stocks or related topics. If you want to create high-quality articles, please checkGuidelines for Tiger Community Creation"}],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9906465410,"gmtCreate":1659579237433,"gmtModify":1705981852521,"author":{"id":"3570965891716236","authorId":"3570965891716236","name":"Jiantew","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/47decb835fc524ae9d7113ae4c5a5033","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3570965891716236","idStr":"3570965891716236"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/INMD\">$InMode Ltd.(INMD)$</a>👍👍👍","listText":"<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/INMD\">$InMode Ltd.(INMD)$</a>👍👍👍","text":"$InMode Ltd.(INMD)$👍👍👍","images":[{"img":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/81da4909917a48e45da349acefa329ba","width":"1125","height":"2196"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9906465410","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2821,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9087696851,"gmtCreate":1651009790763,"gmtModify":1676534830167,"author":{"id":"3570965891716236","authorId":"3570965891716236","name":"Jiantew","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/47decb835fc524ae9d7113ae4c5a5033","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3570965891716236","idStr":"3570965891716236"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/CVX\">$雪佛龙(CVX)$</a>nice😍","listText":"<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/CVX\">$雪佛龙(CVX)$</a>nice😍","text":"$雪佛龙(CVX)$nice😍","images":[{"img":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/1acc79fb641369e898d3f22f9d19bc31","width":"1125","height":"2810"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9087696851","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":809,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9082046816,"gmtCreate":1650505200761,"gmtModify":1676534740380,"author":{"id":"3570965891716236","authorId":"3570965891716236","name":"Jiantew","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/47decb835fc524ae9d7113ae4c5a5033","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3570965891716236","idStr":"3570965891716236"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/BRK.A\">$伯克希尔(BRK.A)$</a>👍👍👍","listText":"<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/BRK.A\">$伯克希尔(BRK.A)$</a>👍👍👍","text":"$伯克希尔(BRK.A)$👍👍👍","images":[{"img":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/5fe4150465935fbe221cd3b232258f41","width":"1125","height":"2600"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9082046816","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1018,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9016258180,"gmtCreate":1649202981822,"gmtModify":1676534468450,"author":{"id":"3570965891716236","authorId":"3570965891716236","name":"Jiantew","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/47decb835fc524ae9d7113ae4c5a5033","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3570965891716236","idStr":"3570965891716236"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Good sharing 🙏🙏🙏","listText":"Good sharing 🙏🙏🙏","text":"Good sharing 🙏🙏🙏","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9016258180","repostId":"1155765738","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1155765738","kind":"news","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"市场策略研究、热点问题观察、分享最新观点：美国与海外市场、H股、及中概股市场","home_visible":1,"media_name":"Kevin策略研究","id":"1090746012","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/54c3f16355434883aa8d30b4dc5a7d90"},"pubTimestamp":1649140623,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1155765738?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2022-04-05 14:37","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"Opinion | How high is high? Quantitative calculation of the impact of interest rates on U.S. stock","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1155765738","media":"Kevin策略研究","summary":"摘要近期，美债利率叠创新高且2s10s倒挂，但意外的是美股表现强劲。市场对此不解甚至困惑，主要基于利率上行对股市不利、同时倒挂后衰退风险上升两个常识判断，但细想都不完全成立。一方面，倒挂后不必然有衰退","content":"<p><html><head></head><body><b>SUMMARY</b></p><p>Recently, US Treasury yields has reached new highs and 2s10s is upside down, but surprisingly, U.S. stocks have performed strongly.<b>The market is puzzled or even confused about this, mainly based on two common sense judgments that rising interest rates are unfavorable to the stock market, and at the same time, the risk of recession rises after inversion, but it is not completely true after careful consideration.</b>On the one hand, there is not necessarily a recession after inversion, but the interval is very long. On the other hand, most of the rising interest rates are in the same direction as the market, especially in the early days of the rate hike. But no matter what, the market can't always ignore it. When will it have an impact?</p><p><b>1. How do interest rates affect the market? Looking at short-term expectations, speed is crucial; At the beginning of the upward trend, the market continues to rise (suppressing valuations but rising profits)</b></p><p><b>First, short-term expectations are particularly important.</b>When the expectation is not fully accounted for, it will often bring violent turmoil in interest rates and markets, regardless of the absolute level of interest rates.<b>Secondly, the upward speed of interest rates is equally critical, regardless of the level.</b>Bond interest rates rise too fast, which itself represents an increase in bond asset volatility, which can easily lead to cross-asset fluctuation contagion.<b>Third, in the long term, interest rates will rise, and most of the stock markets will rise until the middle and late stages.</b>The transmission path of interest rate to the market is sentiment, valuation, and finally profit, so the inflection point of valuation is earlier than that of the market.</p><p><b>Second, how high is the interest rate that the market can afford? 2.9% ~ 3% is the sensitive range</b></p><p><b>Method 1: Stocks and bonds are relatively attractive.</b>The current S&P 500 dynamic Dividend rate is 1.37%, and the average US Treasury yields vs. S&P 500 Dividend rate in the 10 years after 2008 is-0.38%. Assuming that the Dividend rate remains unchanged,<b>When the 10-year US Treasury yields rose to 3%, the stock-bond ratio returned to the average.</b></p><p><b>Method 2: Long-term correlation between interest rates and valuations and markets.</b>Counting the relationship between the S&P 500 valuation and the 10-year US Treasury yields since 1962, we found that the valuation will not shrink until the interest rate reaches a certain \"threshold\". Since the outbreak of the epidemic, this \"threshold\" has dropped to 1.6%, which explains the valuation of U.S. stocks. It began to shrink in the fourth quarter of last year. But the market \"threshold\" is higher. In the same way,<b>The \"threshold\" for triggering the market inflection point has been around 3% since 2013.</b></p><p><b>Method 3: Equity risk premium.</b>Assuming that the equity risk premium further shrinks from now to a more optimistic level from 2003 to 2007 (average 2.2%), corresponding to a contraction of 0.5 percentage points,<b>It can withstand a 10-year US Treasury yields rising to 2.9%.</b></p><p><b>Method 4: Interest rate and financial leverage.</b>Comparing the net leverage ratio of S&P 500 non-financial sector stocks since 2000 with the 10-year US Treasury yields, there is a significant negative correlation between the two.<b>Assuming that leverage falls from current levels to historical averages, the corresponding 10-year US Treasury yields is about 2.9%.</b></p><p><b>Method 5: Financing cost and return on investment.</b>When the financing cost approaches the return on investment, it will erode the profits of enterprises and inhibit the willingness to invest. We use S&P 500 ROIC to measure corporate return on investment, and U.S. 10-year investment grade (BBB) and high-yield bond rates to measure financing costs. The 10-year high-yield rate (currently 6.1%) is 1.8 percentage points away from the average ROIC. In addition, the current high-yield spread is 3.7%, which is 1.4 percentage points away from the average of 5.1% since 2000.<b>If the 10-year high-yield interest rate rises by 1.8%, the 10-year US Treasury yields will increase by an additional 0.4 percentage points, which corresponds to 2.8%.</b></p><p>Combining the above five dimensions,<b>We find that 2.9% ~ 3% is a sensitive range</b>, doesn't mean that there will be no volatility before then, but the market can be digested by risk premiums and earnings cushions.</p><p><b>Focus discussion: \"Ignoring\" rising interest rates and curve inversion, U.S. stocks have continued to rise in the near future; So how high interest rates can the market afford?</b></p><p>Recently, affected by the rising expectations of rate hike, US Treasury yields has reached new highs. The 10-year US Treasury yields once approached 2.6% and then fell back to 2.39%. The 2-year US Treasury yields hit 2.5%, making the 2s10s spread inverted for the first time since 2019 (-7bp). But surprisingly, the U.S. stock market has performed strongly during this period. The S&P 500 Index has risen 6.6% since mid-March, and the Nasdaq Composite Index has risen 10.1%.</p><p><b>The market is somewhat puzzled or even confused that U.S. stocks still closed strongly despite rising interest rates. This is mainly based on two common-sense judgments: rising interest rates are often unfavorable to the stock market, especially growth stocks, and at the same time, the risk of recession increases after inversion. However, if you think about it carefully, they are not completely established</b>。 Regarding the relationship between inversion and recession, we have elaborated on it in detail in \"Eight Questions and Eight Answers on the Inversion of the U.S. Bond Yield Curve\". There is not necessarily a recession after inversion, and the average interval between inversion and recession and market inflection point is as long as 17 and 10 months, the so-called looking close leads to walking far. As for the rising interest rate and the market trend, the rising interest rate is not necessarily accompanied by the falling market. In fact, most of the time, both are in the same direction, especially in the early stage of the rate hike and when the interest rate is relatively low.</p><p>But no matter what, the market can't always ignore the rising interest rate. When will it have an impact? In this article, we will use five methods to measure the threshold of the impact of interest rates on the market, which has important reference value in the context of a high probability of interest rates rising easily but difficult to fall in the future.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e3de97110f776c0d2b9a5da1fece19cd\" tg-width=\"929\" tg-height=\"340\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3a40d7b127f8f5521822145a464f2f0d\" tg-width=\"880\" tg-height=\"649\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><b>1. How do interest rates affect the market? Looking at short-term expectations, speed is crucial; At the beginning of the upward trend, the market continues to rise (suppressing valuations but rising profits)</b></p><p>Regarding the impact of interest rates on the market, we have summarized the following characteristics in reports such as \"The Challenge of US Treasury yields's Too Fast Rise\" and \"The Antecedents, Consequences and Historical Experience of shrinking balance sheet Panic\":</p><p><b>1) First, short-term expectations are particularly important.</b>The implementation of monetary policy has a process from expected brewing, to full accounting, and then to actual implementation. At the beginning, asset prices are more affected by expectations. Therefore, insufficient inclusion of expectations, especially when the market is surprised, will often lead to violent turmoil in interest rates and markets, regardless of the absolute level of interest rates. The \"reduction panic\" in 2013 and the \"shrinking balance sheet panic\" at the beginning of this year are the same. However, after entering the actual implementation stage, the full accounting of expectations will actually lead to a fall in interest rates and a market rebound, such as after the FOMC meeting in March. The medium-term trend is related to the fundamental trend.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d6d7717e8cb84af375d5aaa08fd9fef2\" tg-width=\"886\" tg-height=\"762\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><b>2) Secondly, the speed at which interest rates rise is equally critical, regardless of the level.</b>Speed is another important dimension. Bond interest rates rise too fast, which itself represents an increase in the volatility of bond assets, which can easily lead to cross-asset volatility contagion (when our own volatility indicators exceed 1.5 times the standard deviation, there will often be market turmoil). This was true in October 2018 and the beginning of this year. Recently, this indicator once again exceeded 1.5 times the standard deviation (1.9 times in a week), so it still deserves close attention.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/19eaa75e96c399cb989d9d9371a031a8\" tg-width=\"879\" tg-height=\"326\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><b>3) Third, in the long term, if interest rates rise, most of the stock markets will rise until the mid-to-late stages.</b>Rising interest rates do not mean that the market will inevitably fall. In fact, most of the time, the two are in the same direction, especially in the early stage (\"How far can the recent rebound of US stocks go?\").<b>The transmission path of interest rate to the market is sentiment, valuation, and finally profit.</b>Understood in terms of valuation pricing and cash or Dividend discount concepts, valuations are indeed inversely proportional to interest rates (PE = 1 ⁄ ((r _ f + ERP)), r _ f is the 10-year Treasury Bond, and ERP is the equity risk premium), but when interest rates are low, the actual results are mostly in the same direction, because the initial risk appetite (reflected in the decline of risk premium) is enough to offset the drag of rising interest rates, and it will not suppress valuations until it reaches a certain level. But to further suppress the market, profits still need to peak and fall.<b>Therefore, the inflection point of valuation is earlier than the market.</b></p><p>In addition, the impact of rising interest rates is not the same. Although growth stocks are more vulnerable due to high valuations and longer forward discounted cash flows, the banking sector can benefit from widening interest rate spreads.</p><p><b>Second, how high is the interest rate that the market can afford? Calculated in five dimensions, 2.9% ~ 3% is the sensitive range</b></p><p>But there is always a threshold for rising interest rates that may make the negative impact start to dominate. We used five methods to calculate and found that<b>The threshold for the impact of U.S. bonds on U.S. stocks in the current 10 years may be around 2.9 ~ 3%</b>。 Specifically:</p><p><b>Method 1: Stocks and bonds are relatively attractive.</b>The current overall dynamic Dividend ratio of the S&P 500 is 1.37%. The average US Treasury yields vs. S&P 500 dynamic Dividend ratio in the 10 years after the 2008 financial crisis was-0.38%. The current gap between the two is about-1ppt, which means that assuming that the Dividend rate remains unchanged,<b>When the 10-year US Treasury yields rises to around 3%, the relative price ratio of stocks and bonds will return to around the average.</b></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/de77e82e2e5b8bda9829d5f7f1a7c7a2\" tg-width=\"900\" tg-height=\"678\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><b>Method 2: Long-term correlation between interest rates and valuations and markets.</b>Counting the relationship between S&P 500 valuations and the 10-year US Treasury yields since 1962, we find that valuations do not contract until interest rates reach a certain \"threshold\". However, as the interest rate center has continued to decline over the past years, this \"threshold\" has also been continuously lowered. From 1962 to 1980, when the interest rate level rose to 6.5%, the valuation gradually fell. From 1981 to 2001, this \"threshold\" dropped to 5.8%, from 2003 to 2013, it dropped to around 4.0%, and after 2013, it was about 2.4%.<b>This \"threshold\" has further dropped to 1.6% since the outbreak in March 2020</b>, which also explains that the valuation of U.S. stocks has gradually fallen since the fourth quarter of 2021 (the 10-year US Treasury yields has risen from 1.56% in early November last year to the current 2.38%, and the dynamic valuation of the S&P 500 index has dropped from 21.3 times to the current 19.5 times).</p><p>But the \"threshold\" of the market is obviously higher. Also by counting the relationship between the performance of the S&P 500 index since 1962 and the 10-year US Treasury yields,<b>We found that the \"threshold\" that triggers the market inflection point has been around 3% since 2013.</b></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/98902d09d3217602f0ba514f1ae1a21d\" tg-width=\"897\" tg-height=\"324\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><b>Method 3: Equity risk premium.</b>The equity risk premium can offset part of the impact of rising interest rates. The current equity risk premium of the S&P 500 index is 2.7%, which is lower than the average since 2001 (3.4%) and the level before the market fluctuation in October 2018 (3.0%). If we assume that the equity risk premium further shrinks from the current position to a more optimistic level from 2003 to 2007 (average 2.2%), corresponding to a contraction of 5 percentage points,<b>It can withstand the 10-year US Treasury yields rising to 2.9% without guaranteeing that the valuation will not contract further.</b></p><p><b>Method 4: Interest rate level and financial leverage.</b>Comparing the relationship between the net leverage ratio of S&P 500 non-financial sector stocks and the 10-year US Treasury yields since 2000, we find that the two are highly negatively correlated (correlation coefficient-60%). As of 4Q21, the median net leverage ratio of individual stocks in the non-financial sector was 57.8%, which has dropped sharply from the high of 71.3% during the epidemic, but is still lower than the average of 42.5% since 2000.<b>Assuming leverage falls back from the current level to the historical average, the corresponding 10-year US Treasury yields is about 2.9%.</b></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6bd70202bf33ba6972559fa22cebecc0\" tg-width=\"894\" tg-height=\"327\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><b>Method 5: Financing cost and return on investment.</b>When the financing cost approaches the return on investment, it will erode the corporate profits and inhibit the willingness to invest in the future. We use S&P 500 ROIC to measure corporate return on investment, and U.S. 10-year investment grade (BBB) and high-yield bond rates to measure financing costs. As of March 2022, the overall ROIC of the S&P 500 is 11.1%, and the 10-year high-yield bond rate is 6.1%, a difference of 5%. Before the fluctuation of U.S. stocks in October 2018, the S&P 500 ROIC was 8.8%, and the 10-year high-yield interest rate was 6.3%. The difference between the two was 2.5%.</p><p>Driven by the low base of the epidemic and fiscal stimulus, the current high return on investment in U.S. stocks is likely to be unsustainable. Assuming that the ROIC gradually falls back to the long-term average before the epidemic (the average before the outbreak in March 2020 was 7.9%), that is, the ROIC drops from 11.1% to 7.9%, then if the financing cost approaches the return on investment, the 10-year high-yield interest rate (Currently 6.1%) still has 1.8 percentage points of upside from approaching the average ROIC. Looking further, the current high-yield spread is about 3.7%, which is still 1.4 percentage points away from the average level of 5.1% since 2000.<b>Then if the 10-year high-yield interest rate rises by 1.8%, the 10-year US Treasury yields needs to increase by an additional 0.4 percentage points, which corresponds to a 10-year US Treasury yields of 2.8%.</b></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/556beb5ff0fe8ab8378847bd4a3e9140\" tg-width=\"896\" tg-height=\"323\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Based on the above calculations from five dimensions: the attractiveness of stocks and bonds, the long-term correlation between interest rates and valuations and the market, equity risk premium, financial leverage, and corporate return on investment, we find that,<b>The 10-year US Treasury yields of 2.9% to 3% may be a more sensitive range</b>，<b>And until this level is reached, the market may still digest it through the cushion of risk premium and earnings</b>。 Of course, the above-mentioned static measurement level does not mean that it will not fluctuate before it is reached. Changes in sentiment and expectations, as well as the speed of rising interest rates, may still be the reasons for triggering fluctuations.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/eb5f9dac5f64a3199cc082b29935245e\" tg-width=\"889\" tg-height=\"322\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><b>Market dynamics: 2s10s interest rate inverted for the first time; Russia-Ukraine negotiations continue, Biden releases strategic oil reserves, oil prices fall sharply</b></p><p><b>► Asset performance: bonds > stocks > bulk; Interest rates have fallen and are upside down, and resource products are lagging behind</b></p><p>The situation in Russia and Ukraine and hawkish speeches from Federal Reserve officials still dominate market sentiment. At the beginning of the week, the market believed that the Russia-Ukraine talks had made progress. U.S. stocks closed sharply higher and crude oil fell. However, the next day Moscow said that there was no breakthrough in the Russia-Ukraine talks. U.S. stocks fell in response and oil prices rebounded. Near the weekend, Biden announced a half-year record oil reserve release plan. Crude oil futures prices fell back to US $104/barrel again, and gold prices fell back to US $1,919/ounce. The 10-year US Treasury yields fell to 2.34% at the beginning of the week, and rebounded to 2.38% near the weekend, boosted by non-farm employment data. The 2-year US Treasury yields quickly climbed to 2.46% near the weekend, the highest level since March 2019, so the 2s10s spread also narrowed to inversion.</p><p>Overall, in the past week, under US dollar pricing, bonds > stocks > bulk; Russian stocks, Russian ruble, global REITs led the gains; Crude oil, wheat and soybeans led the decline. In terms of sectors, autos and parts, real estate, and utilities led the gains in the S&P 500 index, while banks, semiconductors, and transportation led the losses. In terms of interest rates, 10-year U.S. bonds first fell and then rose, falling 9bp overall to 2.38%, of which real interest rates rose 7bp and inflation expectations fell 16bp.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/810043d1d2791495ed5fc4019212140b\" tg-width=\"851\" tg-height=\"375\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/da2677d7eee62ca08eea45f69f0a8937\" tg-width=\"845\" tg-height=\"655\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><b>► Liquidity: FRA-OIS and credit spreads continue to narrow</b></p><p>In the past week, the FRA-OIS spread continued to fall back to 13bp, the 90-day commercial bill spread of non-financial enterprises continued to fall, the commercial bill spread of financial enterprises rose, the credit spread of U.S. investment and high-yield bonds both narrowed, and the three-month cross-swap between the euro, Japanese yen and the British pound and the U.S. dollar continued to narrow. The willingness to lend funds in the US repo market has increased, and the repo market interest rate has remained flat at 0.3%; The use of reverse repurchases by major U.S. financial institutions on the Federal Reserve books rose to the second highest level in history on Thursday, with a usage scale of $1.87 trillion and a daily average of about $1.73 trillion.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/94780aaec383e529f8d2e4df5867dc63\" tg-width=\"842\" tg-height=\"655\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3bef8d2e3c9810679be67e2b82b6577f\" tg-width=\"846\" tg-height=\"345\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><b>► Emotional positions: U.S. stock short positions decrease, long-end Treasury Bond short positions continue to increase</b></p><p>In the past week, the VIX fell slightly, and the bearish/bullish ratio (10-day average) of US stocks fell back. The overbought degree of U.S. stocks has dropped, the overbought degree of Japan, Europe, and emerging stocks has increased, and the overbought degree of gold and Brent oil has all dropped, but it is still within a reasonable range. In terms of positions, speculative net short positions in U.S. stocks decreased, speculative net long positions in emerging markets increased, and net short positions in 10-year and 2-year U.S. bonds both increased.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8c8a0a1f2b8bb7d11f7f615703fd1d05\" tg-width=\"841\" tg-height=\"682\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/54c2c16dbb3d0c09c8f4f77efe5b94d6\" tg-width=\"846\" tg-height=\"594\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><b>► Fund flow: Stock and bond funds have turned into inflows, and the inflow of China's stock market is obvious</b></p><p>In the past week, bond funds and stock funds have turned into inflows, and money market funds have slowed down. In terms of markets, in terms of stock markets, emerging markets and the United States turned into inflows, while developed Europe and Japan accelerated outflows.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/619debea83c89d1feecde230beddcff0\" tg-width=\"847\" tg-height=\"654\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><b>► Fundamentals and policies: Fundamentals and policies: Non-farm payrolls in March fell short of expectations, and the labor participation rate continued to improve; PMI fell back in March</b></p><p><b>The job market recovery in March was slightly lower than expected, and the unemployment rate fell to its lowest level since February 2020.</b>The number of new non-agricultural jobs in March was 431,000, significantly lower than the previous value of 750,000 (revised) and the expected 490,000. Meanwhile, the unemployment rate fell to 3.6%, its lowest level since February 2020, and the labor force participation rate also increased slightly to 62.4%. Wage growth has increased. In March, wages increased by 0.4% month-on-month and 5.6% year-on-year, both significantly higher than last month's 0.1% and 5.2%. In terms of industries, leisure hotels are still the most important contributor to non-agricultural employment this month, with an increase of 112,000 people in March. In addition, business services, education and health, etc. grew higher this month. In terms of population types, the labor participation rate of the elderly, who have greater flexibility in the impact of the epidemic, fell back to 19.1% again. In addition, the ISM manufacturing industry fell in March compared with the previous month, and prices rose significantly.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/36ae4a071977305280386f83096b5804\" tg-width=\"868\" tg-height=\"604\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><b>The ISM manufacturing PMI fell back to 57.1 in March, down 1.5 month-on-month.</b>In terms of sub-items, new orders, orders on hand, new export orders, output, and imports fell significantly, prices rose sharply, and employment and inventory recovered compared with the previous month.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/be1eeabd164ae22f1a98de8edeef2410\" tg-width=\"860\" tg-height=\"351\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><b>► Market valuation: above reasonable levels for growth and liquidity</b></p><p>The current S&P 500 static P/E of 21.6 x is higher than a reasonable level (~ 19.5 x) that growth and liquidity can support.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/eff472f20f1947fec0322d7c598ea763\" tg-width=\"860\" tg-height=\"659\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/26de9ee535f9b3bf4a8ada46d9aa0f67\" tg-width=\"854\" tg-height=\"324\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p></body></html></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Opinion | How high is high? Quantitative calculation of the impact of interest rates on U.S. stock</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nOpinion | How high is high? Quantitative calculation of the impact of interest rates on U.S. stock\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/1090746012\">\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/54c3f16355434883aa8d30b4dc5a7d90);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">Kevin策略研究 </p>\n<p class=\"h-time smaller\">2022-04-05 14:37</p>\n</div>\n</a>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><html><head></head><body><b>SUMMARY</b></p><p>Recently, US Treasury yields has reached new highs and 2s10s is upside down, but surprisingly, U.S. stocks have performed strongly.<b>The market is puzzled or even confused about this, mainly based on two common sense judgments that rising interest rates are unfavorable to the stock market, and at the same time, the risk of recession rises after inversion, but it is not completely true after careful consideration.</b>On the one hand, there is not necessarily a recession after inversion, but the interval is very long. On the other hand, most of the rising interest rates are in the same direction as the market, especially in the early days of the rate hike. But no matter what, the market can't always ignore it. When will it have an impact?</p><p><b>1. How do interest rates affect the market? Looking at short-term expectations, speed is crucial; At the beginning of the upward trend, the market continues to rise (suppressing valuations but rising profits)</b></p><p><b>First, short-term expectations are particularly important.</b>When the expectation is not fully accounted for, it will often bring violent turmoil in interest rates and markets, regardless of the absolute level of interest rates.<b>Secondly, the upward speed of interest rates is equally critical, regardless of the level.</b>Bond interest rates rise too fast, which itself represents an increase in bond asset volatility, which can easily lead to cross-asset fluctuation contagion.<b>Third, in the long term, interest rates will rise, and most of the stock markets will rise until the middle and late stages.</b>The transmission path of interest rate to the market is sentiment, valuation, and finally profit, so the inflection point of valuation is earlier than that of the market.</p><p><b>Second, how high is the interest rate that the market can afford? 2.9% ~ 3% is the sensitive range</b></p><p><b>Method 1: Stocks and bonds are relatively attractive.</b>The current S&P 500 dynamic Dividend rate is 1.37%, and the average US Treasury yields vs. S&P 500 Dividend rate in the 10 years after 2008 is-0.38%. Assuming that the Dividend rate remains unchanged,<b>When the 10-year US Treasury yields rose to 3%, the stock-bond ratio returned to the average.</b></p><p><b>Method 2: Long-term correlation between interest rates and valuations and markets.</b>Counting the relationship between the S&P 500 valuation and the 10-year US Treasury yields since 1962, we found that the valuation will not shrink until the interest rate reaches a certain \"threshold\". Since the outbreak of the epidemic, this \"threshold\" has dropped to 1.6%, which explains the valuation of U.S. stocks. It began to shrink in the fourth quarter of last year. But the market \"threshold\" is higher. In the same way,<b>The \"threshold\" for triggering the market inflection point has been around 3% since 2013.</b></p><p><b>Method 3: Equity risk premium.</b>Assuming that the equity risk premium further shrinks from now to a more optimistic level from 2003 to 2007 (average 2.2%), corresponding to a contraction of 0.5 percentage points,<b>It can withstand a 10-year US Treasury yields rising to 2.9%.</b></p><p><b>Method 4: Interest rate and financial leverage.</b>Comparing the net leverage ratio of S&P 500 non-financial sector stocks since 2000 with the 10-year US Treasury yields, there is a significant negative correlation between the two.<b>Assuming that leverage falls from current levels to historical averages, the corresponding 10-year US Treasury yields is about 2.9%.</b></p><p><b>Method 5: Financing cost and return on investment.</b>When the financing cost approaches the return on investment, it will erode the profits of enterprises and inhibit the willingness to invest. We use S&P 500 ROIC to measure corporate return on investment, and U.S. 10-year investment grade (BBB) and high-yield bond rates to measure financing costs. The 10-year high-yield rate (currently 6.1%) is 1.8 percentage points away from the average ROIC. In addition, the current high-yield spread is 3.7%, which is 1.4 percentage points away from the average of 5.1% since 2000.<b>If the 10-year high-yield interest rate rises by 1.8%, the 10-year US Treasury yields will increase by an additional 0.4 percentage points, which corresponds to 2.8%.</b></p><p>Combining the above five dimensions,<b>We find that 2.9% ~ 3% is a sensitive range</b>, doesn't mean that there will be no volatility before then, but the market can be digested by risk premiums and earnings cushions.</p><p><b>Focus discussion: \"Ignoring\" rising interest rates and curve inversion, U.S. stocks have continued to rise in the near future; So how high interest rates can the market afford?</b></p><p>Recently, affected by the rising expectations of rate hike, US Treasury yields has reached new highs. The 10-year US Treasury yields once approached 2.6% and then fell back to 2.39%. The 2-year US Treasury yields hit 2.5%, making the 2s10s spread inverted for the first time since 2019 (-7bp). But surprisingly, the U.S. stock market has performed strongly during this period. The S&P 500 Index has risen 6.6% since mid-March, and the Nasdaq Composite Index has risen 10.1%.</p><p><b>The market is somewhat puzzled or even confused that U.S. stocks still closed strongly despite rising interest rates. This is mainly based on two common-sense judgments: rising interest rates are often unfavorable to the stock market, especially growth stocks, and at the same time, the risk of recession increases after inversion. However, if you think about it carefully, they are not completely established</b>。 Regarding the relationship between inversion and recession, we have elaborated on it in detail in \"Eight Questions and Eight Answers on the Inversion of the U.S. Bond Yield Curve\". There is not necessarily a recession after inversion, and the average interval between inversion and recession and market inflection point is as long as 17 and 10 months, the so-called looking close leads to walking far. As for the rising interest rate and the market trend, the rising interest rate is not necessarily accompanied by the falling market. In fact, most of the time, both are in the same direction, especially in the early stage of the rate hike and when the interest rate is relatively low.</p><p>But no matter what, the market can't always ignore the rising interest rate. When will it have an impact? In this article, we will use five methods to measure the threshold of the impact of interest rates on the market, which has important reference value in the context of a high probability of interest rates rising easily but difficult to fall in the future.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e3de97110f776c0d2b9a5da1fece19cd\" tg-width=\"929\" tg-height=\"340\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3a40d7b127f8f5521822145a464f2f0d\" tg-width=\"880\" tg-height=\"649\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><b>1. How do interest rates affect the market? Looking at short-term expectations, speed is crucial; At the beginning of the upward trend, the market continues to rise (suppressing valuations but rising profits)</b></p><p>Regarding the impact of interest rates on the market, we have summarized the following characteristics in reports such as \"The Challenge of US Treasury yields's Too Fast Rise\" and \"The Antecedents, Consequences and Historical Experience of shrinking balance sheet Panic\":</p><p><b>1) First, short-term expectations are particularly important.</b>The implementation of monetary policy has a process from expected brewing, to full accounting, and then to actual implementation. At the beginning, asset prices are more affected by expectations. Therefore, insufficient inclusion of expectations, especially when the market is surprised, will often lead to violent turmoil in interest rates and markets, regardless of the absolute level of interest rates. The \"reduction panic\" in 2013 and the \"shrinking balance sheet panic\" at the beginning of this year are the same. However, after entering the actual implementation stage, the full accounting of expectations will actually lead to a fall in interest rates and a market rebound, such as after the FOMC meeting in March. The medium-term trend is related to the fundamental trend.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d6d7717e8cb84af375d5aaa08fd9fef2\" tg-width=\"886\" tg-height=\"762\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><b>2) Secondly, the speed at which interest rates rise is equally critical, regardless of the level.</b>Speed is another important dimension. Bond interest rates rise too fast, which itself represents an increase in the volatility of bond assets, which can easily lead to cross-asset volatility contagion (when our own volatility indicators exceed 1.5 times the standard deviation, there will often be market turmoil). This was true in October 2018 and the beginning of this year. Recently, this indicator once again exceeded 1.5 times the standard deviation (1.9 times in a week), so it still deserves close attention.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/19eaa75e96c399cb989d9d9371a031a8\" tg-width=\"879\" tg-height=\"326\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><b>3) Third, in the long term, if interest rates rise, most of the stock markets will rise until the mid-to-late stages.</b>Rising interest rates do not mean that the market will inevitably fall. In fact, most of the time, the two are in the same direction, especially in the early stage (\"How far can the recent rebound of US stocks go?\").<b>The transmission path of interest rate to the market is sentiment, valuation, and finally profit.</b>Understood in terms of valuation pricing and cash or Dividend discount concepts, valuations are indeed inversely proportional to interest rates (PE = 1 ⁄ ((r _ f + ERP)), r _ f is the 10-year Treasury Bond, and ERP is the equity risk premium), but when interest rates are low, the actual results are mostly in the same direction, because the initial risk appetite (reflected in the decline of risk premium) is enough to offset the drag of rising interest rates, and it will not suppress valuations until it reaches a certain level. But to further suppress the market, profits still need to peak and fall.<b>Therefore, the inflection point of valuation is earlier than the market.</b></p><p>In addition, the impact of rising interest rates is not the same. Although growth stocks are more vulnerable due to high valuations and longer forward discounted cash flows, the banking sector can benefit from widening interest rate spreads.</p><p><b>Second, how high is the interest rate that the market can afford? Calculated in five dimensions, 2.9% ~ 3% is the sensitive range</b></p><p>But there is always a threshold for rising interest rates that may make the negative impact start to dominate. We used five methods to calculate and found that<b>The threshold for the impact of U.S. bonds on U.S. stocks in the current 10 years may be around 2.9 ~ 3%</b>。 Specifically:</p><p><b>Method 1: Stocks and bonds are relatively attractive.</b>The current overall dynamic Dividend ratio of the S&P 500 is 1.37%. The average US Treasury yields vs. S&P 500 dynamic Dividend ratio in the 10 years after the 2008 financial crisis was-0.38%. The current gap between the two is about-1ppt, which means that assuming that the Dividend rate remains unchanged,<b>When the 10-year US Treasury yields rises to around 3%, the relative price ratio of stocks and bonds will return to around the average.</b></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/de77e82e2e5b8bda9829d5f7f1a7c7a2\" tg-width=\"900\" tg-height=\"678\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><b>Method 2: Long-term correlation between interest rates and valuations and markets.</b>Counting the relationship between S&P 500 valuations and the 10-year US Treasury yields since 1962, we find that valuations do not contract until interest rates reach a certain \"threshold\". However, as the interest rate center has continued to decline over the past years, this \"threshold\" has also been continuously lowered. From 1962 to 1980, when the interest rate level rose to 6.5%, the valuation gradually fell. From 1981 to 2001, this \"threshold\" dropped to 5.8%, from 2003 to 2013, it dropped to around 4.0%, and after 2013, it was about 2.4%.<b>This \"threshold\" has further dropped to 1.6% since the outbreak in March 2020</b>, which also explains that the valuation of U.S. stocks has gradually fallen since the fourth quarter of 2021 (the 10-year US Treasury yields has risen from 1.56% in early November last year to the current 2.38%, and the dynamic valuation of the S&P 500 index has dropped from 21.3 times to the current 19.5 times).</p><p>But the \"threshold\" of the market is obviously higher. Also by counting the relationship between the performance of the S&P 500 index since 1962 and the 10-year US Treasury yields,<b>We found that the \"threshold\" that triggers the market inflection point has been around 3% since 2013.</b></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/98902d09d3217602f0ba514f1ae1a21d\" tg-width=\"897\" tg-height=\"324\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><b>Method 3: Equity risk premium.</b>The equity risk premium can offset part of the impact of rising interest rates. The current equity risk premium of the S&P 500 index is 2.7%, which is lower than the average since 2001 (3.4%) and the level before the market fluctuation in October 2018 (3.0%). If we assume that the equity risk premium further shrinks from the current position to a more optimistic level from 2003 to 2007 (average 2.2%), corresponding to a contraction of 5 percentage points,<b>It can withstand the 10-year US Treasury yields rising to 2.9% without guaranteeing that the valuation will not contract further.</b></p><p><b>Method 4: Interest rate level and financial leverage.</b>Comparing the relationship between the net leverage ratio of S&P 500 non-financial sector stocks and the 10-year US Treasury yields since 2000, we find that the two are highly negatively correlated (correlation coefficient-60%). As of 4Q21, the median net leverage ratio of individual stocks in the non-financial sector was 57.8%, which has dropped sharply from the high of 71.3% during the epidemic, but is still lower than the average of 42.5% since 2000.<b>Assuming leverage falls back from the current level to the historical average, the corresponding 10-year US Treasury yields is about 2.9%.</b></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6bd70202bf33ba6972559fa22cebecc0\" tg-width=\"894\" tg-height=\"327\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><b>Method 5: Financing cost and return on investment.</b>When the financing cost approaches the return on investment, it will erode the corporate profits and inhibit the willingness to invest in the future. We use S&P 500 ROIC to measure corporate return on investment, and U.S. 10-year investment grade (BBB) and high-yield bond rates to measure financing costs. As of March 2022, the overall ROIC of the S&P 500 is 11.1%, and the 10-year high-yield bond rate is 6.1%, a difference of 5%. Before the fluctuation of U.S. stocks in October 2018, the S&P 500 ROIC was 8.8%, and the 10-year high-yield interest rate was 6.3%. The difference between the two was 2.5%.</p><p>Driven by the low base of the epidemic and fiscal stimulus, the current high return on investment in U.S. stocks is likely to be unsustainable. Assuming that the ROIC gradually falls back to the long-term average before the epidemic (the average before the outbreak in March 2020 was 7.9%), that is, the ROIC drops from 11.1% to 7.9%, then if the financing cost approaches the return on investment, the 10-year high-yield interest rate (Currently 6.1%) still has 1.8 percentage points of upside from approaching the average ROIC. Looking further, the current high-yield spread is about 3.7%, which is still 1.4 percentage points away from the average level of 5.1% since 2000.<b>Then if the 10-year high-yield interest rate rises by 1.8%, the 10-year US Treasury yields needs to increase by an additional 0.4 percentage points, which corresponds to a 10-year US Treasury yields of 2.8%.</b></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/556beb5ff0fe8ab8378847bd4a3e9140\" tg-width=\"896\" tg-height=\"323\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Based on the above calculations from five dimensions: the attractiveness of stocks and bonds, the long-term correlation between interest rates and valuations and the market, equity risk premium, financial leverage, and corporate return on investment, we find that,<b>The 10-year US Treasury yields of 2.9% to 3% may be a more sensitive range</b>，<b>And until this level is reached, the market may still digest it through the cushion of risk premium and earnings</b>。 Of course, the above-mentioned static measurement level does not mean that it will not fluctuate before it is reached. Changes in sentiment and expectations, as well as the speed of rising interest rates, may still be the reasons for triggering fluctuations.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/eb5f9dac5f64a3199cc082b29935245e\" tg-width=\"889\" tg-height=\"322\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><b>Market dynamics: 2s10s interest rate inverted for the first time; Russia-Ukraine negotiations continue, Biden releases strategic oil reserves, oil prices fall sharply</b></p><p><b>► Asset performance: bonds > stocks > bulk; Interest rates have fallen and are upside down, and resource products are lagging behind</b></p><p>The situation in Russia and Ukraine and hawkish speeches from Federal Reserve officials still dominate market sentiment. At the beginning of the week, the market believed that the Russia-Ukraine talks had made progress. U.S. stocks closed sharply higher and crude oil fell. However, the next day Moscow said that there was no breakthrough in the Russia-Ukraine talks. U.S. stocks fell in response and oil prices rebounded. Near the weekend, Biden announced a half-year record oil reserve release plan. Crude oil futures prices fell back to US $104/barrel again, and gold prices fell back to US $1,919/ounce. The 10-year US Treasury yields fell to 2.34% at the beginning of the week, and rebounded to 2.38% near the weekend, boosted by non-farm employment data. The 2-year US Treasury yields quickly climbed to 2.46% near the weekend, the highest level since March 2019, so the 2s10s spread also narrowed to inversion.</p><p>Overall, in the past week, under US dollar pricing, bonds > stocks > bulk; Russian stocks, Russian ruble, global REITs led the gains; Crude oil, wheat and soybeans led the decline. In terms of sectors, autos and parts, real estate, and utilities led the gains in the S&P 500 index, while banks, semiconductors, and transportation led the losses. In terms of interest rates, 10-year U.S. bonds first fell and then rose, falling 9bp overall to 2.38%, of which real interest rates rose 7bp and inflation expectations fell 16bp.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/810043d1d2791495ed5fc4019212140b\" tg-width=\"851\" tg-height=\"375\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/da2677d7eee62ca08eea45f69f0a8937\" tg-width=\"845\" tg-height=\"655\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><b>► Liquidity: FRA-OIS and credit spreads continue to narrow</b></p><p>In the past week, the FRA-OIS spread continued to fall back to 13bp, the 90-day commercial bill spread of non-financial enterprises continued to fall, the commercial bill spread of financial enterprises rose, the credit spread of U.S. investment and high-yield bonds both narrowed, and the three-month cross-swap between the euro, Japanese yen and the British pound and the U.S. dollar continued to narrow. The willingness to lend funds in the US repo market has increased, and the repo market interest rate has remained flat at 0.3%; The use of reverse repurchases by major U.S. financial institutions on the Federal Reserve books rose to the second highest level in history on Thursday, with a usage scale of $1.87 trillion and a daily average of about $1.73 trillion.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/94780aaec383e529f8d2e4df5867dc63\" tg-width=\"842\" tg-height=\"655\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3bef8d2e3c9810679be67e2b82b6577f\" tg-width=\"846\" tg-height=\"345\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><b>► Emotional positions: U.S. stock short positions decrease, long-end Treasury Bond short positions continue to increase</b></p><p>In the past week, the VIX fell slightly, and the bearish/bullish ratio (10-day average) of US stocks fell back. The overbought degree of U.S. stocks has dropped, the overbought degree of Japan, Europe, and emerging stocks has increased, and the overbought degree of gold and Brent oil has all dropped, but it is still within a reasonable range. In terms of positions, speculative net short positions in U.S. stocks decreased, speculative net long positions in emerging markets increased, and net short positions in 10-year and 2-year U.S. bonds both increased.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8c8a0a1f2b8bb7d11f7f615703fd1d05\" tg-width=\"841\" tg-height=\"682\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/54c2c16dbb3d0c09c8f4f77efe5b94d6\" tg-width=\"846\" tg-height=\"594\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><b>► Fund flow: Stock and bond funds have turned into inflows, and the inflow of China's stock market is obvious</b></p><p>In the past week, bond funds and stock funds have turned into inflows, and money market funds have slowed down. In terms of markets, in terms of stock markets, emerging markets and the United States turned into inflows, while developed Europe and Japan accelerated outflows.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/619debea83c89d1feecde230beddcff0\" tg-width=\"847\" tg-height=\"654\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><b>► Fundamentals and policies: Fundamentals and policies: Non-farm payrolls in March fell short of expectations, and the labor participation rate continued to improve; PMI fell back in March</b></p><p><b>The job market recovery in March was slightly lower than expected, and the unemployment rate fell to its lowest level since February 2020.</b>The number of new non-agricultural jobs in March was 431,000, significantly lower than the previous value of 750,000 (revised) and the expected 490,000. Meanwhile, the unemployment rate fell to 3.6%, its lowest level since February 2020, and the labor force participation rate also increased slightly to 62.4%. Wage growth has increased. In March, wages increased by 0.4% month-on-month and 5.6% year-on-year, both significantly higher than last month's 0.1% and 5.2%. In terms of industries, leisure hotels are still the most important contributor to non-agricultural employment this month, with an increase of 112,000 people in March. In addition, business services, education and health, etc. grew higher this month. In terms of population types, the labor participation rate of the elderly, who have greater flexibility in the impact of the epidemic, fell back to 19.1% again. In addition, the ISM manufacturing industry fell in March compared with the previous month, and prices rose significantly.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/36ae4a071977305280386f83096b5804\" tg-width=\"868\" tg-height=\"604\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><b>The ISM manufacturing PMI fell back to 57.1 in March, down 1.5 month-on-month.</b>In terms of sub-items, new orders, orders on hand, new export orders, output, and imports fell significantly, prices rose sharply, and employment and inventory recovered compared with the previous month.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/be1eeabd164ae22f1a98de8edeef2410\" tg-width=\"860\" tg-height=\"351\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><b>► Market valuation: above reasonable levels for growth and liquidity</b></p><p>The current S&P 500 static P/E of 21.6 x is higher than a reasonable level (~ 19.5 x) that growth and liquidity can support.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/eff472f20f1947fec0322d7c598ea763\" tg-width=\"860\" tg-height=\"659\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/26de9ee535f9b3bf4a8ada46d9aa0f67\" tg-width=\"854\" tg-height=\"324\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p></body></html></p>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4f6ec6e99c0c8b9feb7f296b78c65a54","relate_stocks":{".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite",".DJI":"道琼斯",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index"},"source_url":"","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1155765738","content_text":"摘要近期，美债利率叠创新高且2s10s倒挂，但意外的是美股表现强劲。市场对此不解甚至困惑，主要基于利率上行对股市不利、同时倒挂后衰退风险上升两个常识判断，但细想都不完全成立。一方面，倒挂后不必然有衰退而间隔很长。另一方面，利率上行多数与市场同向，尤其是加息初期。但不论如何，市场不可能一直无视，那何时会有影响？一、利率如何影响市场？短期看预期，速度很关键；上行初期市场继续上行（压制估值但盈利上行）首先，短期预期尤为重要。预期计入不充分时，往往会带来利率和市场剧烈动荡，与利率绝对水平无关。其次，利率上行速度同样关键，无论水平高低。债券利率上行过快，本身代表着债券资产波动增加，容易造成跨资产波动传染。第三，长周期看利率上行股市多数上行，直到中后期。利率对市场的传导路径依次是情绪、估值、最后盈利，故估值的拐点早于市场。二、市场能够承受多高的利率？2.9%~3%是敏感区间方法一：股债相对吸引力。当前标普500动态股息率1.37%，2008年后10年美债利率vs.标普500股息率均值-0.38%，假设股息率不变，10年美债利率升至3%时股债比价回到均值。方法二：利率与估值和市场长期相关性。统计1962年以来标普500估值与10年美债利率间关系，我们发现利率达到某个“阈值”后估值才会收缩，疫情爆发以来这一“阈值”降至1.6%，解释了美股估值自去年四季度开始收缩。但市场“阈值”更高，同样方法，触发市场拐点“阈值”2013年以来约在3%附近。方法三：股权风险溢价。假设股权风险溢价从目前进一步收缩至2003~2007年更乐观水平（均值2.2%），对应0.5个百分点收缩，可承受10年美债利率升至2.9%。方法四：利率与财务杠杆。对比2000年以来标普500非金融板块个股净杠杆率与10年美债利率，二者明显负相关。假设杠杆从当前水平降至历史均值，对应10年美债利率约为2.9%。方法五：融资成本与投资回报率。融资成本逼近投资回报率时，将会侵蚀企业利润并抑制投资意愿。我们用标普500指数ROIC衡量企业投资回报率，并用美国10年期投资级（BBB）和高收益债券利率衡量融资成本。10年高收益利率（当前6.1%）距ROIC均值有1.8个百分点空间。此外，当前高收益率利差3.7%，距2000年以来5.1%均值有1.4个百分点空间。若10年高收益利率抬升1.8%，10年美债利率额外提升0.4个百分点，即对应2.8%。综合上述五个维度，我们发现2.9%~3%是一个敏感区间，并不意味着在此之前就不会波动，但市场可通过风险溢价和盈利缓冲垫消化。焦点讨论：“无视”利率上行和曲线倒挂，美股近期继续上行；那么市场能够承受多高的利率？近期，受加息预期升温影响，美债利率叠创新高，10年美债利率一度逼近2.6%后回落至2.39%，2年美债利率则触及2.5%，使得2s10s利差自2019年以来首度倒挂（-7bp）。但意外的是，美股市场在此期间却表现强劲，标普500指数3月中旬以来上涨6.6%，纳斯达克综指更是上涨10.1%。市场对利率抬升下美股依然强势收涨多少有些不解甚至困惑，主要基于利率上行对股市特别是成长股往往不利、同时倒挂后衰退风险增加等两个常识性判断，但细想其实都不完全成立。关于倒挂和衰退的关系，我们在《美债收益率曲线倒挂八问八答》已做了详细阐述，倒挂后不必然有衰退，而且倒挂到衰退和市场拐点平均间隔长达17和10个月，所谓看着近走着远。而针对利率上行与市场走势，也不是利率上行必然伴随市场下跌，实际上多数时候两者都是同向的，尤其是在加息初期和利率处于相对低位时。但不论如何，市场不可能一直无视利率上行，何时将会有影响？我们将在本文中通过五种方法测算利率对市场影响的阈值，这在未来一段时间利率大概率易上难下的背景下有重要参考价值。一、利率如何影响市场？短期看预期，速度很关键；上行初期市场继续上行（压制估值但盈利上行）关于利率对市场的影响，我们在《美债利率上行过快的挑战》、《“缩表恐慌”前因、后果与历史经验》等报告中总结过以下特点：1）首先，短期预期尤为重要。货币政策实施，都有一个从预期酝酿、到完全计入、再到实际执行的过程。初期更多通过预期影响资产价格，因此预期计入不充分特别是让市场意外时，往往会带来利率和市场的剧烈动荡，与利率所处绝对水平无关，2013年的“削减恐慌”与今年年初的“缩表恐慌”都是如此。但进入实际执行阶段后，预期的充分计入反而会带来利率阶段回落和市场反弹，如3月FOMC会议后。中期走势则与基本面趋势有关。2）其次，利率上行速度同样关键，无论水平高低。速度是另外一个重要维度，债券利率上行过快，本身代表着债券资产波动增加，容易造成跨资产的波动传染（我们自有的波动指标超过1.5倍标准差时，往往会有市场动荡），2018年10月和今年年初均是如此。近期这一指标再度突破1.5倍标准差（过于一周达1.9倍），因此依然值得密切关注。3）第三，长周期看利率上行股市多数上行，直到中后期。利率上行并不意味着市场必然下跌，实际上多数时间二者反而是同向的，尤其在初期（《近期美股的反弹能走多远？》）。利率对市场的传导路径依次是情绪、估值、最后盈利。从估值定价和现金或股息贴现概念来理解的话，估值的确与利率成反比（PE=1⁄((r_f+ERP)),r_f为10年国债，ERP为股权风险溢价），但当利率处于低位时，实际结果反而多数为同向，这是因为初期风险偏好（反映为风险溢价下降）足以抵消利率抬升拖累，直到高到一定程度时才会压制估值。但进一步到压制市场，还需要盈利见顶回落，因此估值的拐点早于市场。此外，利率上行的影响也非千篇一律，尽管成长股因为高估值和更远期现金流折现更易受损，但银行板块却可以受益于利差的扩大。二、市场能够承受多高的利率？五个维度测算，2.9%~3%是敏感区间但是利率上行总有一个阈值可能使得负面影响开始占据主导。我们分别用5种方法测算，发现当前10年美债对美股的影响阈值可能在2.9~3%附近。具体而言：方法一：股债相对吸引力。当前标普500整体动态股息率为1.37%。2008年金融危机后10年美债利率vs.标普500动态股息率的均值为-0.38%。二者当前差距为-1ppt左右，意味着假设股息率不变，10年美债利率升至3%附近时，股债相对比价将会回到均值附近。方法二：利率与估值和市场的长期相关性。统计1962年以来标普500估值与10年美债利率之间的关系，我们发现直到利率达到某个“阈值”之后，估值才会收缩。不过由于过去多年利率中枢持续下行，因此这一“阈值”也不断降低。1962~1980年，当利率水平升至6.5%后估值逐渐回落，1981~2001年间这一“阈值”降至5.8%，在2003~2013年又降至4.0%附近，2013年后为2.4%左右。2020年3月疫情爆发以来这一“阈值”进一步降至1.6%，这也解释了美股估值自2021年四季度开始逐渐回落（10年美债利率从去年11月初的1.56%一路走高至当前的2.38%，标普500指数动态估值从21.3倍降至当前的19.5倍）。但市场的“阈值”显然更高。同样通过统计1962年以来标普500指数表现与10年美债利率的关系，我们发现触发市场拐点的“阈值”2013年以来大概在3%附近。方法三：股权风险溢价。股权风险溢价能够抵消一部分利率抬升的影响，当前标普500指数的股权风险溢价为2.7%，已低于2001年以来均值（3.4%）及2018年10月市场波动前水平（3.0%）。若假设股权风险溢价从目前位置进一步收缩至2003~2007年更为乐观水平（均值2.2%），对应5个百分点的收缩，可以承受10年美债利率升至2.9%而保证估值不进一步收缩。方法四：利率水平与财务杠杆。对比2000年以来标普500非金融板块个股净杠杆率与10年美债利率的关系，我们发现二者高度负相关（相关系数-60%）。截止4Q21，非金融板块个股净杠杆率中位数为57.8%，较疫情期间71.3%的高点已经大幅回落，但仍低于2000年以来42.5%的均值。假设杠杆从当前水平回落至历史均值，对应10年美债利率约为2.9%。方法五：融资成本与投资回报率。当融资成本逼近投资回报率时，将会侵蚀企业利润并抑制未来投资意愿。我们用标普500指数ROIC衡量企业投资回报率，并用美国10年期投资级（BBB）和高收益债券利率衡量融资成本。截至2022年3月，标普500整体ROIC为11.1%，10年期高收益债券利率为6.1%，二者相差5%。2018年10月美股波动前标普500 ROIC为8.8%，10年高收益利率6.3%，二者相差2.5%。受疫情低基数和财政刺激推动，当前美股偏高的美股投资回报率大概率不可持续。假设ROIC逐步回落至疫情前长期均值（2020年3月疫情爆发前均值为7.9%），即ROIC从11.1%降至7.9%，那么如若使融资成本逼近投资回报率的话，10年高收益利率（当前6.1%）距接近ROIC均值仍有1.8个百分点的上行空间。进一步看，当前高收益率利差约3.7%，距离2000年以来5.1%的均值水平仍有1.4个百分点的空间。那么如若10年高收益利率抬升1.8%的话，10年美债利率需额外提升0.4个百分点，即对应10年美债利率为2.8%。综合上述从股债吸引力、利率与估值和市场的长期相关性、股权风险溢价、财务杠杆以及企业投资回报率等五个维度的测算，我们发现，2.9%~3%的10年美债利率可能是一个较为敏感的区间，而在达到这一水平前，市场仍可能通过风险溢价和盈利的缓冲垫来消化。当然，上述静态测算的水平并不意味着没有达到之前就一定不会波动，情绪和预期的变化、以及利率上行的速度都仍有可能成为触发波动的原因。市场动态：2s10s利率首度倒挂；俄乌谈判继续，拜登释放战略石油储备，油价大幅回落►资产表现：债>股>大宗；利率回落且倒挂，资源品落后俄乌局势和美联储官员鹰派发言仍主导市场情绪，周初市场认为俄乌会谈取得进展，美股大幅收高，原油回落，但次日莫斯科称俄乌谈判未有任何突破，美股应声下跌，油价回升。临近周末，拜登宣布为期半年的创纪录储备油投放计划，原油期货价格再度回落至104美元/桶，黄金价格回落至1919美元/盎司。10年美债利率周初下跌至2.34%，临近周末受非农就业数据提振回升至2.38%，2年美债利率临近周末快速攀升至2.46%，创2019年3月来的最高水平，因此2s10s利差也收窄至倒挂。整体来看，过去一周，美元计价下，债>股>大宗；俄罗斯股市、俄罗斯卢布、全球REITs领涨；原油、小麦、大豆领跌。板块方面，标普500指数中汽车与零部件、房地产、公用事业领涨，银行、半导体、运输领跌。利率方面，10年美债先跌后涨，整体回落9bp升至2.38%，其中实际利率抬升7bp，通胀预期回落16bp。►流动性：FRA-OIS及信用利差继续收窄过去一周，FRA-OIS利差继续回落至13bp，90天非金融企业商票利差持续回落，金融企业商票利差有所抬升，美国投资及高收益债信用利差均收窄，欧元、日元和英镑与美元的3个月交叉互换持续收窄。美国回购市场资金出借意愿增加，回购市场利率持平于0.3%；美国主要金融机构在美联储账上的逆回购使用量周四升至有史以来以来第二高水平，使用规模达1.87万亿美元，日度平均规模约1.73万亿美元。►情绪仓位：美股空头减少，长端国债空头继续增加过去一周，VIX小幅回落，美股看空/看多比例（10天平均）回落。美股超买程度回落、日本、欧洲、新兴超买程度抬升，黄金、布油超买程度均回落，但目前仍处于合理区间。仓位方面，美股投机性净空头仓位减少，新兴市场投机性净多头仓位增加，10年期和2年期美债净空头均增加。►资金流向：股、债型基金转为流入，中国股市流入明显过去一周，债券型基金、股票型基金转为流入、货币市场基金流入放缓。分市场看，股市方面，新兴市场、美国转为流入，发达欧洲、日本加速流出。►基本面与政策：基本面与政策：3月非农不及预期，劳动参与率继续改善；3月PMI回落3月就业市场修复略低于预期，失业率降至2020年2月以来最低水平。3月非农新增就业人数43.1万人，大幅低于前值75万人（修正后）和预期的49万人。与此同时，失业率下降至3.6%，为2020年2月以来的最低水平，劳动参与率也小幅提升至62.4%。薪资增速有所上涨，3月工资环比增长0.4%，同比5.6%，均明显高于上个月的0.1%和5.2%。分行业看，休闲酒店仍是本月非农就业的最主要贡献，3月增加11.2万人，此外商业服务、教育健康等本月增长较高。分人口类型看，疫情影响弹性更大的老年人劳动参与率再度回落至19.1%。此外，3月ISM制造业较前月回落，物价抬升明显。3月ISM制造业PMI回落至57.1，环比下降1.5。分项来看，新订单、在手订单、新出口订单、产出、进口回落明显，物价大幅抬升，就业及库存较前月修复。►市场估值：高于增长和流动性合理水平当前标普500 21.6倍静态P/E高于增长和流动性能够支撑的合理水平（~19.5倍）。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"ZTmain":0.9,".IXIC":0.9,"ZBmain":0.9,"UBmain":0.9,"ZNmain":0.9,".SPX":0.9,".DJI":0.9,"TNmain":0.9,"ZFmain":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1008,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0}],"lives":[]}