ChrisChen123 personal page - To The Moon

ChrisChen123

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2022-03-25

Then short it and hold your shorts for 5 years. Donkey.

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2022-01-25

OK

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2022-01-25

I bought dip. Wish you luck. I'm Long Tesla and palantir. No other stocks. We will be rich one day.

@Palantard SG:$Palantir Technologies Inc.(PLTR)$Still waitin

2022-01-24

Ok

The blessing of Tesla and Apple doesn't work either: Changying Precision, which is "short of cores", has a maximum pre-loss of nearly 700 million

2022-01-24

1

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2022-01-22

$特斯拉(TSLA)$Tesla going to 1200$ after Q4 earning.

2022-01-22

Ok

Netflix has been unable to rise for a long time, and the new year will be under new "pressure"

2022-01-21

Ok

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Go to Tiger App to see more news

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Original title: The blessing of Tesla and Apple doesn't work either. The performance of Changying Precision, which is \"short of cores\", has thundered, with a maximum pre-loss of nearly 700 million. Reporter | Zhang Yi's new energy automobile industry broke out, sitting on Tesla, Ningde Times (300750. SZ), Apple and other important customers, has experienced a thunderstorm. Changying Precision's performance forecast on the evening of January 23 showed that the company expects a loss of 490 million yuan to 690 million yuan in 2021,...</p><p><a href=\"https://finance.sina.com.cn/stock/s/2022-01-23/doc-ikyakumy2163752.shtml\">Web link</a></div></p>","source":"sina","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>The blessing of Tesla and Apple doesn't work either: Changying Precision, which is \"short of cores\", has a maximum pre-loss of nearly 700 million</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nThe blessing of Tesla and Apple doesn't work either: Changying Precision, which is \"short of cores\", has a maximum pre-loss of nearly 700 million\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">界面新闻</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2022-01-23 22:35</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><div>For stock trading, read the Jin Qilin analyst research report, which is authoritative, professional, timely and comprehensive, helping you tap potential theme opportunities! Original title: The blessing of Tesla and Apple doesn't work either. The performance of Changying Precision, which is \"short of cores\", has thundered, with a maximum pre-loss of nearly 700 million. Reporter | Zhang Yi's new energy automobile industry broke out, sitting on Tesla, Ningde Times (300750. SZ), Apple and other important customers, has experienced a thunderstorm. Changying Precision's performance forecast on the evening of January 23 showed that the company expects a loss of 490 million yuan to 690 million yuan in 2021,...</p><p><a href=\"https://finance.sina.com.cn/stock/s/2022-01-23/doc-ikyakumy2163752.shtml\">Web link</a></div></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> source：<a href=\"https://finance.sina.com.cn/stock/s/2022-01-23/doc-ikyakumy2163752.shtml\">界面新闻</a></p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3e707b08b9b2e46de2e172fbe3a489c3","relate_stocks":{"300115":"长盈精密","BK4554":"元宇宙及AR概念","BK4532":"文艺复兴科技持仓","AAPL":"苹果","BK4501":"段永平概念","BK4553":"喜马拉雅资本持仓","BK4527":"明星科技股","BK4099":"汽车制造商","BK4534":"瑞士信贷持仓","BK4555":"新能源车","BK4533":"AQR资本管理(全球第二大对冲基金)","BK4566":"资本集团","BK4505":"高瓴资本持仓","BK4515":"5G概念","BK4559":"巴菲特持仓","BK4550":"红杉资本持仓","BK4548":"巴美列捷福持仓","BK4507":"流媒体概念","TSLA":"特斯拉","BK4170":"电脑硬件、储存设备及电脑周边","BK4551":"寇图资本持仓"},"source_url":"https://finance.sina.com.cn/stock/s/2022-01-23/doc-ikyakumy2163752.shtml","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/b0d1b7e8843deea78cc308b15114de44","article_id":"2205190020","content_text":"炒股就看金麒麟分析师研报，权威，专业，及时，全面，助您挖掘潜力主题机会！ 　　原标题：特斯拉、苹果加持也不管用，“缺芯”的长盈精密业绩暴雷，最高预亏近7亿\n　　记者 | 张艺\n　　新能源汽车行业爆发，坐拥特斯拉、宁德时代（300750.SZ）、苹果等重要客户的长盈精密（300115.SZ）业绩却暴雷了。\n　　长盈精密1月23日晚间业绩预告显示，公司预计2021年亏损4.90亿元至亏损6.90亿元，上年同期为盈利超6亿元；扣非后净利润为-6.50亿元至-8.50亿元。这是长盈精密上市11年以来的首次年度亏损，且亏损金额相对其自身体量已规模较大。\n　　之所以让人意外，是因为长盈精密业绩冰火两重天。去年前三个季度公司还是盈利的，归属于上市公司股东的净利润为1.57亿元。意味着，公司在第四季度单季亏损6.47亿元至亏损8.47亿元。亏损在三季度已有苗头，第三季度单季亏损0.79亿元。\n\n　　长盈精密2021年年报业绩预告\n　　对于业绩亏损的原因，长盈精密提出五点解释，包括研发费用增加、缺芯影响、原材料涨价、存货减值等。\n　　公告称，公司主要客户战略产品研发投入进一步增大，费用增加，新能源零组件布局及研发投入增加；主要客户重点产品处于量产爬坡期，良率低；部分生产制造基地受疫情、客户芯片短缺等影响，产能利用率下降、生产成本上升；主要原材料铜、铝等大幅涨价，短期内难以消化。\n　　期末部分存货因上述原因存在减值情况，计提了减值准备。但长盈精密并未披露具体存货计提减值金额。\n　　长盈精密本为消费电子企业，近年公司逐步由精密制造向智能制造方向发展，业务延伸至移动通信终端、新能源汽车零组件、机器人及智能制造领域等市场。\n　　目前长盈精密拥有两大业务板块，分别是消费电子精密零组件业务和新能源汽车精密零组件业务。\n　　在消费类电子产品方面，长盈精密主要供应智能终端零组件，包括智能手机金属外观件、冲压五金件、笔记本电脑及新型硬件结构件、超精密链接器等；新能源汽车零组件方面则包括氢燃料电池金属双极板、高压母排、动力电池结构件、充电枪等。\n　　在这两大业务上，长盈精密客户不乏行业巨头。\n　　消费电子领域，长盈精密与大客户苹果、华为、小米等头部手机品牌供应商。\n　　新能源汽车业务方面，长盈精密是特斯拉重要零部件供应商，动力电池龙头企业宁德时代也是其重要客户。\n　　2017年，长盈精密与特斯拉首次开展合作，并逐步成为特斯拉新能源汽车零组件的供应商，在部分高精度产品占据核心供应份额。除特斯拉以外，长盈新能源汽车领域还有诸多重要客户，包括PSA、戴姆勒奔驰、上海汽车、吉利汽车等。\n　　不论是新能源汽车，还是机器人等，长盈精密所处行业均是景气度向上的行业，也符合政策方向，同时，公司也都拥有着重量级的客户，缘何长盈精密会在单季出现业绩暴雷呢？\n　　一大原因或许是新业务布局步子迈得太大了。\n　　为了与特斯拉和宁德时代密切绑定，长盈精密提出了对重点客户“就近配套”的思路。围绕这一思路，公司多地新建生产基地。\n　　2020年，长盈精密非公开增发募资19亿元，其中部分资金用于打造上海临港新能源汽车零组件基地。\n　　2021年，长盈精密合计投资25亿元在四川宜宾、江苏常州、福建宁德三地建设动力电池结构件生产基地，以配套宁德时代等客户。\n　　公司最新对投资者交流时回复称，宁德长盈、常州长盈已在2021年上半年相继投产，宜宾长盈预计也正在投产。\n　　互动易上，长盈精密还称，公司新能源业务利润下降系原材料上涨及公司大规模扩产所致。“公司研发费用增加主要系国际客户新项目研发人工、材料费用等增加所致；管理费用主要系新能源业务管理团队增加，员工结构调整等所致。”\n　　重心扑在新能源领域的同时，长盈精密新能源汽车业务的营收占比并不高。2021年上半年，这一业务营收只有4.37亿元，营收占比近10%。\n　　与此同时，电子连接器及智能电子产品营收占比近半，消费类电子精密结构件及模组占比近40%。因此，“缺芯”或许是长盈精密伤筋动骨更重要的原因。\n　　2022年以来长盈精密股价持续下跌，累积跌幅达18.80%，最新收盘价16.11元/股。\n　　大客户也不能为长盈精密带来业绩保障，具体亏在何处，要待年报披露。\n\n集虎卡，开鸿运！最高拆522元惊喜福袋！\n\n\n\n\n海量资讯、精准解读，尽在新浪财经APP\n\n责任编辑：张熠","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"300115":1,"AAPL":1,"TSLA":1}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2422,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9007418563,"gmtCreate":1642983145779,"gmtModify":1676533761532,"author":{"id":"3571264504108019","authorId":"3571264504108019","name":"ChrisChen123","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3571264504108019","idStr":"3571264504108019"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"1","listText":"1","text":"1","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9007418563","repostId":"2205707838","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2543,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9007862539,"gmtCreate":1642828659303,"gmtModify":1676533751100,"author":{"id":"3571264504108019","authorId":"3571264504108019","name":"ChrisChen123","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3571264504108019","idStr":"3571264504108019"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/TSLA\">$特斯拉(TSLA)$</a>Tesla going to 1200$ after Q4 earning.&nbsp;","listText":"<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/TSLA\">$特斯拉(TSLA)$</a>Tesla going to 1200$ after Q4 earning.&nbsp;","text":"$特斯拉(TSLA)$Tesla going to 1200$ after Q4 earning.","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":6,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9007862539","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":3010,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9007862348,"gmtCreate":1642828490182,"gmtModify":1676533751092,"author":{"id":"3571264504108019","authorId":"3571264504108019","name":"ChrisChen123","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3571264504108019","idStr":"3571264504108019"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Ok&nbsp;","listText":"Ok&nbsp;","text":"Ok","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9007862348","repostId":"1166623001","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1166623001","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1642816721,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1166623001?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2022-01-22 09:58","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"Netflix has been unable to rise for a long time, and the new year will be under new \"pressure\"","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1166623001","media":"智通财经网","summary":"王者垂暮？","content":"<p><html><head></head><body>Author: Chen Shiye</p><p>After the US stock market closed on January 20, Eastern Time, Netflix announced its financial report for the fourth quarter of 2021.</p><p>The financial report shows that the company's Q4 revenue was US $7.709 billion, compared with market expectations of US $7.708 billion, and US $6.644 billion in the same period last year, a year-on-year increase of 16%; Net profit was US $607 million, compared with market expectations of US $374 million, and US $542 million in the same period last year, a year-on-year increase of 12%; Diluted earnings per share were US $1.33, compared with market expectations of US $0.82 and US $1.19 in the same period last year.</p><p>In addition, the company's full-year revenue in 2021 will reach approximately 29.7 billion, and its full-year net profit will be 5.1 billion. Full-year diluted earnings per share were $11.24, exceeding consensus expectations of $10.7.</p><p>At first glance, Netflix's performance last year was quite impressive, with many indicators exceeding market expectations. However, after the financial report was announced, Netflix's after-hours stock price plummeted, plummeting 20%. In fact, in the near future, Netflix's stock price has been under pressure, especially since entering 2022, the company's stock price has fallen by more than 15%.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/24256afc889a3655d5af9c4fa34a222c\" tg-width=\"840\" tg-height=\"470\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p>Going back further, in 2021, Netflix successfully gained a large number of \"fans\" through the launch of a series of popular film and television dramas such as \"Squid Game\", and its performance has also benefited from this, and its stock price has risen by 11% throughout the year.. However, considering that the S&P 500 index has risen by 28% in 21 years, and the Nasdaq Composite Index, which is dominated by technology stocks, has also risen by 23% in 2021, Netflix's stock in 2021 The performance is not \"passing\".</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d7aa4f4375b8cfc44ce36691411ef0ab\" tg-width=\"553\" tg-height=\"232\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p>Netflix stock doesn't rise as much as S&P 500</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/06a813e6a701f73928c04dbbbcd08313\" tg-width=\"554\" tg-height=\"226\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p>Netflix shares don't rise as much as Nasdaq</p><p>There are various reasons behind the decline of the company's stock price, but for Netflix, the main reason affecting its stock price is the number of subscribers.</p><p><b>The tragedy of subscription numbers</b></p><p>In the fourth quarter, Netflix saw a net increase of 8.28 million in the number of global streaming media paid subscribers, compared with market expectations of 8.13 million. By the end of 2021, Netflix will have a total of 221.84 million paying streaming subscribers worldwide. Looking forward to the first quarter of 2022, Netflix expects streaming media paying users to increase by 2.5 million, which is lower than the 4 million in the same period last year and far lower than market expectations for an increase of 6.26 million.</p><p>In the fourth quarter, although the net increase in Netflix subscriptions exceeded market expectations of 8.13 million, you must know that in the third quarter financial report, the management was optimistic that the company's new users in the fourth quarter would reach 8.5 million. Zhitong Finance APP noticed that the decline in subscription growth is also reflected in the annual growth rate of the number of users. In the fourth quarter of 2020, Netflix's subscriber growth rate reached an astonishing 21.9%. However, after entering 2021, The growth rate has dropped from double digits earlier to single digits. In the latest guidance given by the management for the first quarter, the annual growth rate of its user number was only 8%, a decrease of 5.6 percentage points from the same period last year.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/842a699d0a8524eb18749294b2466784\" tg-width=\"480\" tg-height=\"288\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p>Data source: Netflix financial report</p><p>There was a view that as COVID-19 pandemic slowly retreats, people's demand for home entertainment will decline, which is likely to have an impact on Netflix. In the Q3 financial report meeting, Netflix executives said that the company's subscriber number has passed the \"volatility period\" during the COVID-19 pandemic and is slowly returning to \"normal\" levels. Therefore, perhaps it was COVID-19 pandemic who pushed Netflix to a height that did not belong to him, and as the management began to realize that high growth was unsustainable, it gave relatively conservative guidance.</p><p><b>Operating profit margin</b><b>Fall below the \"3% growth line\"</b></p><p>An important factor in the market's previous optimism about Netflix's stock price is that its overall profitability indicators will continue to expand over time, despite interquarterly fluctuations.</p><p>In the fourth quarter, Netflix's operating profit margin was 8%, higher than the company's forecast guidance of 6.5%, but compared with 14% in the same period last year, there is still a lot of gap. The operating profit margin for the full year of 2021 still reaches 20.9%, which is within the company's previous expected range--20% or more.</p><p>Although the company's overall revenue still maintained a rapid growth rate in the fourth quarter, operating income was only 632 million, a decrease of 34% from the same period in 2020 and a decrease of 64% from the third quarter.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8aa99576b0c290d8963c855648f68057\" tg-width=\"481\" tg-height=\"288\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p>Data source: Netflix financial report</p><p>It should be said that the company's management has already been vaccinated against this lower operating profit margin. At the previous meeting, the management attributed the reduction in operating profit margin to Netflix's placement of the backlog of program content in the fourth quarter. Broadcast in the quarter, this resulted in a large amortization of program content assets for the company. In this financial report, Netflix also mentioned the above reasons again. In the fourth quarter, the amortization of content assets reached US $3.74 billion, the largest amortization quarter in the past two years.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/bdd56ee165655765c5314d17c002d12e\" tg-width=\"480\" tg-height=\"288\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p>Data source: Netflix financial report</p><p>In addition, Netflix predicts that the company's operating income in the first quarter of this year will be US $1.765 billion, with an operating profit margin of 22.3%. Compared with the performance in the first quarter of last year, this guidance shows a slight decline. At the same time, the company expects that the operating profit margin in 2022 will not be able to achieve the previously shouted annual growth of 3% (that is, the operating profit margin should have reached 22% this year, but the company's guidance range is 19-20%). For the expected decline in profit margins, management blames the exchange rate change more than the decrease in revenue level.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ea1eb3366bf88da0f6562637c86008ce\" tg-width=\"515\" tg-height=\"314\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p>Will Netflix's operating margin growth fall below the \"3% growth line\"?</p><p><b>Fierce streaming competition</b></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f5e476061a5b8f0924ec6c2eeaba30fd\" tg-width=\"409\" tg-height=\"175\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p>Unit: Millions</p><p>Data source: financial reports of major companies</p><p>Note: This is the number of subscribers at the end of each quarter. Discovery will be released after 2021, so the previous data is not included in the statistics</p><p>In the past, regarding market competition, Netflix usually said that the company faced competitors from different fields, but the streaming services of other companies did not pose much threat to it. Netflix has always maintained that the viewing time of streaming media is still not as long as it should be. But in Netflix's latest letter to shareholders this season, there is a sentence that is particularly eyesore: \"Although intensified competition may affect our profit margin growth...\", some analysts believe that this is Netflix's admission of fierce competition. Powerful proof: Streaming competition is affecting its user growth.</p><p>In terms of subscribers, Disney + can be described as a sudden emergence. Although the latest data will not be released until the financial report results are announced in February, judging from past information, as of the third quarter of 2021, Disney + has more than 118 million global paying users. The streaming service added 2.1 million subscribers in the third quarter and 44.4 million subscribers in the past 12 months. As for the number of users expected in 2024, Disney has also increased from the initial range of 60 million to 90 million to 230 million to 260 million.</p><p>Aside from Disney +, the momentum of other peers is not to be underestimated. In May last year, AT&T agreed to merge its WarnerMedia with media giant Discovery Inc. to strengthen its competitiveness in the streaming media market. It is reported that in addition to renaming Discovery to Warner Bros. Discovery, the new team also intends to merge HBO Max and Discovery + into the same platform.</p><p>On the one hand, HBO MAX itself has a certain user base. It is understood that by the end of 2021, the number of subscribers of HBO and HBO Max has reached approximately 73.8 million, ranking among the forefront of the highly competitive streaming media market. In October last year, AT&T predicted that the total number of users would increase to 73 million by the end of the year, so the actual number this time exceeded the company's previous forecast, making it AT the forefront of the highly competitive streaming media market. And in the launch including The Sex Lives of College Girls After sequels to popular dramas, HBO Max saw a significant increase in the number of subscribers in the fourth quarter.</p><p>On the other hand, benefiting from the successful launch of Discovery + in 2021, the company's streaming service's subscribers soared to 20 million in just three quarters. After the merger, it is believed that driven by synergies, it will bring more benefits to the company as well as more subscriptions.</p><p>Although Netflix may not be as outstanding as some of its streaming media peers in terms of subscription growth, its own huge user base makes it barely secure the top spot in the streaming media industry. Zhitong Finance APP once reported that in the relatively excellent third quarter, driven by the hit drama series \"Squid Game\", the number of new users reached 4.38 million in one fell swoop, exceeding previous expectations.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b4efc8ce5d6ac5bec8417523c62ce4c6\" tg-width=\"554\" tg-height=\"309\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p>Data Source : Nielsen research</p><p>In the fierce market, Netflix has to face competition not only from streaming media peers, but also from cable TV, broadcast and other fields (such as video games).</p><p>In fact, according to the survey, in November, the Thanksgiving holiday and the increase of downtime encourage consumers to spend 5% more time watching TV programs every week. It is worth noting that the increased time away from school gives students the opportunity to spend time on video games (included in the \"Other\" category) and watch content on Disney +.</p><p>Although the market share of broadcast TV decreased from 10 months, mainly due to the decline in the ratings of general TV series and sitcoms, the ratings of sports programs remained strong, even without the World Series, the ratings rose by 7%.</p><p>In streaming media, Disney + benefited from a nearly 20% increase in viewing time that month, and its market share rose by 1% from October.</p><p>There are two main factors driving this growth: the increase in viewing time of the platform's main users (children, children), and the release of new movies \"Shang-Chi\" and \"Jungle Voyage\" by Disney + Day during the month.</p><p>In addition, the total market share of Amazon's Prime Video remains at 2%, but the total viewing time on the platform is still 8% higher than that in October.</p><p>Netflix's overall market share in October and November was basically stable at 7%, an increase of 1% from 6% in September. In the fluid industry, the biggest challenge Netflix faces comes from Youtube, which is clinging to Netflix in terms of overall market share (6%). Of course, HULU is also an opponent that can't be underestimated. The latter's high cost performance is becoming more and more favored by the audience.</p><p>In terms of pricing, Netflix has been in a high position in the industry all the way. Entering 2022, Netflix announced an increase in its subscription prices in the United States and Canada. Among them, the basic account fee in the United States has increased from $8.99 to $9.99 per month, the standard account fee has increased from $13.99 to $15.49 per month, and the premium account fee has increased from $17.99 to $19.99 per month. The standard account fee in Canada rose from C $14.99 to C $16.49, the premium account fee increased by C $2 to C $20.99, and the base account fee remained unchanged at C $9.99. And if competition really starts to erode some of the growth of subscribers, then price increases may increase the risk of customer churn.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/91fff80dee293a51bff366a7c25e51fe\" tg-width=\"553\" tg-height=\"375\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p><b>The \"trump card\" of the original album is still in hand</b></p><p>In 2021, Netflix launched a series of exciting program content. According to the statistics of Google's popular search list, 6 of the top 10 TV series with the highest number of searches belong to Netflix's original series. Among them, the well-known \"Squid Game\" ranked first, while another Netflix series \"Bridgerton\" ranked second.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3b2e1b6e4b7889ecf041401c63a996f1\" tg-width=\"554\" tg-height=\"282\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p>Source: Google</p><p>The popular series \"Squid Game\" became popular all over the world immediately after its launch. The series was launched at the end of the third quarter. In the first four weeks of the fourth quarter, the series gained 1.65 billion hours of viewing time, setting a record record in Netflix's history. The highest number of views. At the same time, management confirmed that Squid Game will launch a second season. Netflix co-CEO Ted Sarandos said: \"The universe of\" Squid Game \"has just begun!\" In addition, with the popularity of \"Squid Game\", Netflix has also launched a series of peripheral products of the series, such as The sportswear worn by the contestants in \"Squid Game\".</p><p>In December, Netflix released a series of new sequels: The Witcher, You, Emily in Paris, Cobra Kai, and Maid.</p><p>In addition, as one of the most successful foreign language TV series in Netflix's history, the Spanish TV series \"Banknote House\" ended perfectly in the fourth quarter. The TV series has gained 6.7 billion hours of broadcast time since the first season was broadcast. At the same time, Netflix is interested in expanding the universe of \"House of Banknotes\" and will launch the Korean version of \"House of Banknotes\" later this year.</p><p>In 2022, Netflix will continue to work hard on original drama series and launch a series of new original drama series. In addition, sequels to popular IP dramas such as \"Stranger Things\" and \"Bridgerton\" will also be launched this year.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a6d76dca983c7803be3c4b382f8a194c\" tg-width=\"608\" tg-height=\"793\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p><b>Investment bankers who \"see the wind and make the rudder\"</b></p><p>Before Netflix's financial report was released, nearly 40 institutions gave Netflix an \"overweight\" rating.</p><p>After Netflix announced its financial report, KeyBanc took the lead in lowering Netflix's rating from \"overweight\" to \"hold\". Before the January financial report was released, the agency had just reiterated its \"overweight\" rating on Netflix. Right now, analysts at the bank see few growth drivers for the stock.</p><p>In addition, Goldman Sachs analysts gave Netflix a \"neutral\" investment rating. Analysts at the bank believe that the stock has been underperforming in the past 18 months, and the market is still controversial about the company's growth rate under normal circumstances after the epidemic.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/41651b5eb31afb1cbb7f7b4ad9a4c737\" tg-width=\"514\" tg-height=\"386\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p>Institutional ratings and target prices on Netflix in the past three months</p><p>According to relevant statistics, in the past three months, analysts have released target prices for Netflix in the next year, with an average of US $535.83, a highest value of US $800, and a lowest value of US $342.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/82bf43c7d2250b760d4b4e27041c6ef5\" tg-width=\"554\" tg-height=\"373\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p>Target Price Range</p><p><b>sum up</b></p><p>Netflix's management used \"good business conditions, high user retention rate, decreased user churn rate, and increased ratings\" to evaluate this performance. However, judging from various data, Netflix is facing increasingly fierce competition in the streaming media market. It is an indisputable fact. As the COVID-19 pandemic subsides and people's lives return to normal, the range within which Netflix's user growth rate will eventually \"normalize\" is the most important point for all investors, and it is also an important factor in determining its stock price trend.</p><p>In addition, in the fourth quarter, Netflix did not repurchase operations. According to the financial report, Netflix used part of the cash to acquire Roald Dahl Story Company. As for Netflix's official announcement of its entry into the game industry last year, whether it can bring new growth to Netflix in the new year is another key topic of market concern.</p><p></body></html></p>","source":"highlight_zhitongcaijin","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Netflix has been unable to rise for a long time, and the new year will be under new \"pressure\"</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nNetflix has been unable to rise for a long time, and the new year will be under new \"pressure\"\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">智通财经网</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2022-01-22 09:58</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><html><head></head><body>Author: Chen Shiye</p><p>After the US stock market closed on January 20, Eastern Time, Netflix announced its financial report for the fourth quarter of 2021.</p><p>The financial report shows that the company's Q4 revenue was US $7.709 billion, compared with market expectations of US $7.708 billion, and US $6.644 billion in the same period last year, a year-on-year increase of 16%; Net profit was US $607 million, compared with market expectations of US $374 million, and US $542 million in the same period last year, a year-on-year increase of 12%; Diluted earnings per share were US $1.33, compared with market expectations of US $0.82 and US $1.19 in the same period last year.</p><p>In addition, the company's full-year revenue in 2021 will reach approximately 29.7 billion, and its full-year net profit will be 5.1 billion. Full-year diluted earnings per share were $11.24, exceeding consensus expectations of $10.7.</p><p>At first glance, Netflix's performance last year was quite impressive, with many indicators exceeding market expectations. However, after the financial report was announced, Netflix's after-hours stock price plummeted, plummeting 20%. In fact, in the near future, Netflix's stock price has been under pressure, especially since entering 2022, the company's stock price has fallen by more than 15%.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/24256afc889a3655d5af9c4fa34a222c\" tg-width=\"840\" tg-height=\"470\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p>Going back further, in 2021, Netflix successfully gained a large number of \"fans\" through the launch of a series of popular film and television dramas such as \"Squid Game\", and its performance has also benefited from this, and its stock price has risen by 11% throughout the year.. However, considering that the S&P 500 index has risen by 28% in 21 years, and the Nasdaq Composite Index, which is dominated by technology stocks, has also risen by 23% in 2021, Netflix's stock in 2021 The performance is not \"passing\".</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d7aa4f4375b8cfc44ce36691411ef0ab\" tg-width=\"553\" tg-height=\"232\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p>Netflix stock doesn't rise as much as S&P 500</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/06a813e6a701f73928c04dbbbcd08313\" tg-width=\"554\" tg-height=\"226\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p>Netflix shares don't rise as much as Nasdaq</p><p>There are various reasons behind the decline of the company's stock price, but for Netflix, the main reason affecting its stock price is the number of subscribers.</p><p><b>The tragedy of subscription numbers</b></p><p>In the fourth quarter, Netflix saw a net increase of 8.28 million in the number of global streaming media paid subscribers, compared with market expectations of 8.13 million. By the end of 2021, Netflix will have a total of 221.84 million paying streaming subscribers worldwide. Looking forward to the first quarter of 2022, Netflix expects streaming media paying users to increase by 2.5 million, which is lower than the 4 million in the same period last year and far lower than market expectations for an increase of 6.26 million.</p><p>In the fourth quarter, although the net increase in Netflix subscriptions exceeded market expectations of 8.13 million, you must know that in the third quarter financial report, the management was optimistic that the company's new users in the fourth quarter would reach 8.5 million. Zhitong Finance APP noticed that the decline in subscription growth is also reflected in the annual growth rate of the number of users. In the fourth quarter of 2020, Netflix's subscriber growth rate reached an astonishing 21.9%. However, after entering 2021, The growth rate has dropped from double digits earlier to single digits. In the latest guidance given by the management for the first quarter, the annual growth rate of its user number was only 8%, a decrease of 5.6 percentage points from the same period last year.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/842a699d0a8524eb18749294b2466784\" tg-width=\"480\" tg-height=\"288\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p>Data source: Netflix financial report</p><p>There was a view that as COVID-19 pandemic slowly retreats, people's demand for home entertainment will decline, which is likely to have an impact on Netflix. In the Q3 financial report meeting, Netflix executives said that the company's subscriber number has passed the \"volatility period\" during the COVID-19 pandemic and is slowly returning to \"normal\" levels. Therefore, perhaps it was COVID-19 pandemic who pushed Netflix to a height that did not belong to him, and as the management began to realize that high growth was unsustainable, it gave relatively conservative guidance.</p><p><b>Operating profit margin</b><b>Fall below the \"3% growth line\"</b></p><p>An important factor in the market's previous optimism about Netflix's stock price is that its overall profitability indicators will continue to expand over time, despite interquarterly fluctuations.</p><p>In the fourth quarter, Netflix's operating profit margin was 8%, higher than the company's forecast guidance of 6.5%, but compared with 14% in the same period last year, there is still a lot of gap. The operating profit margin for the full year of 2021 still reaches 20.9%, which is within the company's previous expected range--20% or more.</p><p>Although the company's overall revenue still maintained a rapid growth rate in the fourth quarter, operating income was only 632 million, a decrease of 34% from the same period in 2020 and a decrease of 64% from the third quarter.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8aa99576b0c290d8963c855648f68057\" tg-width=\"481\" tg-height=\"288\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p>Data source: Netflix financial report</p><p>It should be said that the company's management has already been vaccinated against this lower operating profit margin. At the previous meeting, the management attributed the reduction in operating profit margin to Netflix's placement of the backlog of program content in the fourth quarter. Broadcast in the quarter, this resulted in a large amortization of program content assets for the company. In this financial report, Netflix also mentioned the above reasons again. In the fourth quarter, the amortization of content assets reached US $3.74 billion, the largest amortization quarter in the past two years.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/bdd56ee165655765c5314d17c002d12e\" tg-width=\"480\" tg-height=\"288\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p>Data source: Netflix financial report</p><p>In addition, Netflix predicts that the company's operating income in the first quarter of this year will be US $1.765 billion, with an operating profit margin of 22.3%. Compared with the performance in the first quarter of last year, this guidance shows a slight decline. At the same time, the company expects that the operating profit margin in 2022 will not be able to achieve the previously shouted annual growth of 3% (that is, the operating profit margin should have reached 22% this year, but the company's guidance range is 19-20%). For the expected decline in profit margins, management blames the exchange rate change more than the decrease in revenue level.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ea1eb3366bf88da0f6562637c86008ce\" tg-width=\"515\" tg-height=\"314\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p>Will Netflix's operating margin growth fall below the \"3% growth line\"?</p><p><b>Fierce streaming competition</b></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f5e476061a5b8f0924ec6c2eeaba30fd\" tg-width=\"409\" tg-height=\"175\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p>Unit: Millions</p><p>Data source: financial reports of major companies</p><p>Note: This is the number of subscribers at the end of each quarter. Discovery will be released after 2021, so the previous data is not included in the statistics</p><p>In the past, regarding market competition, Netflix usually said that the company faced competitors from different fields, but the streaming services of other companies did not pose much threat to it. Netflix has always maintained that the viewing time of streaming media is still not as long as it should be. But in Netflix's latest letter to shareholders this season, there is a sentence that is particularly eyesore: \"Although intensified competition may affect our profit margin growth...\", some analysts believe that this is Netflix's admission of fierce competition. Powerful proof: Streaming competition is affecting its user growth.</p><p>In terms of subscribers, Disney + can be described as a sudden emergence. Although the latest data will not be released until the financial report results are announced in February, judging from past information, as of the third quarter of 2021, Disney + has more than 118 million global paying users. The streaming service added 2.1 million subscribers in the third quarter and 44.4 million subscribers in the past 12 months. As for the number of users expected in 2024, Disney has also increased from the initial range of 60 million to 90 million to 230 million to 260 million.</p><p>Aside from Disney +, the momentum of other peers is not to be underestimated. In May last year, AT&T agreed to merge its WarnerMedia with media giant Discovery Inc. to strengthen its competitiveness in the streaming media market. It is reported that in addition to renaming Discovery to Warner Bros. Discovery, the new team also intends to merge HBO Max and Discovery + into the same platform.</p><p>On the one hand, HBO MAX itself has a certain user base. It is understood that by the end of 2021, the number of subscribers of HBO and HBO Max has reached approximately 73.8 million, ranking among the forefront of the highly competitive streaming media market. In October last year, AT&T predicted that the total number of users would increase to 73 million by the end of the year, so the actual number this time exceeded the company's previous forecast, making it AT the forefront of the highly competitive streaming media market. And in the launch including The Sex Lives of College Girls After sequels to popular dramas, HBO Max saw a significant increase in the number of subscribers in the fourth quarter.</p><p>On the other hand, benefiting from the successful launch of Discovery + in 2021, the company's streaming service's subscribers soared to 20 million in just three quarters. After the merger, it is believed that driven by synergies, it will bring more benefits to the company as well as more subscriptions.</p><p>Although Netflix may not be as outstanding as some of its streaming media peers in terms of subscription growth, its own huge user base makes it barely secure the top spot in the streaming media industry. Zhitong Finance APP once reported that in the relatively excellent third quarter, driven by the hit drama series \"Squid Game\", the number of new users reached 4.38 million in one fell swoop, exceeding previous expectations.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b4efc8ce5d6ac5bec8417523c62ce4c6\" tg-width=\"554\" tg-height=\"309\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p>Data Source : Nielsen research</p><p>In the fierce market, Netflix has to face competition not only from streaming media peers, but also from cable TV, broadcast and other fields (such as video games).</p><p>In fact, according to the survey, in November, the Thanksgiving holiday and the increase of downtime encourage consumers to spend 5% more time watching TV programs every week. It is worth noting that the increased time away from school gives students the opportunity to spend time on video games (included in the \"Other\" category) and watch content on Disney +.</p><p>Although the market share of broadcast TV decreased from 10 months, mainly due to the decline in the ratings of general TV series and sitcoms, the ratings of sports programs remained strong, even without the World Series, the ratings rose by 7%.</p><p>In streaming media, Disney + benefited from a nearly 20% increase in viewing time that month, and its market share rose by 1% from October.</p><p>There are two main factors driving this growth: the increase in viewing time of the platform's main users (children, children), and the release of new movies \"Shang-Chi\" and \"Jungle Voyage\" by Disney + Day during the month.</p><p>In addition, the total market share of Amazon's Prime Video remains at 2%, but the total viewing time on the platform is still 8% higher than that in October.</p><p>Netflix's overall market share in October and November was basically stable at 7%, an increase of 1% from 6% in September. In the fluid industry, the biggest challenge Netflix faces comes from Youtube, which is clinging to Netflix in terms of overall market share (6%). Of course, HULU is also an opponent that can't be underestimated. The latter's high cost performance is becoming more and more favored by the audience.</p><p>In terms of pricing, Netflix has been in a high position in the industry all the way. Entering 2022, Netflix announced an increase in its subscription prices in the United States and Canada. Among them, the basic account fee in the United States has increased from $8.99 to $9.99 per month, the standard account fee has increased from $13.99 to $15.49 per month, and the premium account fee has increased from $17.99 to $19.99 per month. The standard account fee in Canada rose from C $14.99 to C $16.49, the premium account fee increased by C $2 to C $20.99, and the base account fee remained unchanged at C $9.99. And if competition really starts to erode some of the growth of subscribers, then price increases may increase the risk of customer churn.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/91fff80dee293a51bff366a7c25e51fe\" tg-width=\"553\" tg-height=\"375\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p><b>The \"trump card\" of the original album is still in hand</b></p><p>In 2021, Netflix launched a series of exciting program content. According to the statistics of Google's popular search list, 6 of the top 10 TV series with the highest number of searches belong to Netflix's original series. Among them, the well-known \"Squid Game\" ranked first, while another Netflix series \"Bridgerton\" ranked second.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3b2e1b6e4b7889ecf041401c63a996f1\" tg-width=\"554\" tg-height=\"282\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p>Source: Google</p><p>The popular series \"Squid Game\" became popular all over the world immediately after its launch. The series was launched at the end of the third quarter. In the first four weeks of the fourth quarter, the series gained 1.65 billion hours of viewing time, setting a record record in Netflix's history. The highest number of views. At the same time, management confirmed that Squid Game will launch a second season. Netflix co-CEO Ted Sarandos said: \"The universe of\" Squid Game \"has just begun!\" In addition, with the popularity of \"Squid Game\", Netflix has also launched a series of peripheral products of the series, such as The sportswear worn by the contestants in \"Squid Game\".</p><p>In December, Netflix released a series of new sequels: The Witcher, You, Emily in Paris, Cobra Kai, and Maid.</p><p>In addition, as one of the most successful foreign language TV series in Netflix's history, the Spanish TV series \"Banknote House\" ended perfectly in the fourth quarter. The TV series has gained 6.7 billion hours of broadcast time since the first season was broadcast. At the same time, Netflix is interested in expanding the universe of \"House of Banknotes\" and will launch the Korean version of \"House of Banknotes\" later this year.</p><p>In 2022, Netflix will continue to work hard on original drama series and launch a series of new original drama series. In addition, sequels to popular IP dramas such as \"Stranger Things\" and \"Bridgerton\" will also be launched this year.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a6d76dca983c7803be3c4b382f8a194c\" tg-width=\"608\" tg-height=\"793\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p><b>Investment bankers who \"see the wind and make the rudder\"</b></p><p>Before Netflix's financial report was released, nearly 40 institutions gave Netflix an \"overweight\" rating.</p><p>After Netflix announced its financial report, KeyBanc took the lead in lowering Netflix's rating from \"overweight\" to \"hold\". Before the January financial report was released, the agency had just reiterated its \"overweight\" rating on Netflix. Right now, analysts at the bank see few growth drivers for the stock.</p><p>In addition, Goldman Sachs analysts gave Netflix a \"neutral\" investment rating. Analysts at the bank believe that the stock has been underperforming in the past 18 months, and the market is still controversial about the company's growth rate under normal circumstances after the epidemic.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/41651b5eb31afb1cbb7f7b4ad9a4c737\" tg-width=\"514\" tg-height=\"386\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p>Institutional ratings and target prices on Netflix in the past three months</p><p>According to relevant statistics, in the past three months, analysts have released target prices for Netflix in the next year, with an average of US $535.83, a highest value of US $800, and a lowest value of US $342.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/82bf43c7d2250b760d4b4e27041c6ef5\" tg-width=\"554\" tg-height=\"373\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p>Target Price Range</p><p><b>sum up</b></p><p>Netflix's management used \"good business conditions, high user retention rate, decreased user churn rate, and increased ratings\" to evaluate this performance. However, judging from various data, Netflix is facing increasingly fierce competition in the streaming media market. It is an indisputable fact. As the COVID-19 pandemic subsides and people's lives return to normal, the range within which Netflix's user growth rate will eventually \"normalize\" is the most important point for all investors, and it is also an important factor in determining its stock price trend.</p><p>In addition, in the fourth quarter, Netflix did not repurchase operations. According to the financial report, Netflix used part of the cash to acquire Roald Dahl Story Company. As for Netflix's official announcement of its entry into the game industry last year, whether it can bring new growth to Netflix in the new year is another key topic of market concern.</p><p></body></html></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> source：<a href=\"https://www.zhitongcaijing.com/content/detail/646079.html\">智通财经网</a></p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8fa6212aa97fcee15e91e74f631de4bf","relate_stocks":{"NFLX":"奈飞"},"source_url":"https://www.zhitongcaijing.com/content/detail/646079.html","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/6ca2dcdccfa2217fb20a0351f4efe814","article_id":"1166623001","content_text":"作者： 陈诗烨美东时间1月20日美股盘后，奈飞公布了2021年第四季度财报。财报显示，该公司Q4营收77.09亿美元，市场预期77.08亿美元，上年同期为66.44亿美元，同比增长16%;净利润为6.07亿美元，市场预期3.74亿美元，上年同期为5.42亿美元，同比增长12%;摊薄后每股收益1.33美元，市场预期0.82美元，上年同期1.19美元。此外，该公司2021年全年营收达到约297亿，全年净利润为51亿。全年摊薄后每股收益为11.24美元，超过市场预期值10.7美元。乍看之下，奈飞去年的业绩表现可谓相当亮眼，多项指标都超过市场的预期。然而，在财报公布后，奈飞的盘后股价一路狂泻，暴跌20%。事实上，在近期，奈飞股价都一路承压，特别是进入到2022年以来，该公司股价已下跌超过15%以上。再往上追溯，在2021年，奈飞通过推出《鱿鱼游戏》等一系列热门的影视剧成功收获了一大批“粉丝”，业绩也因此受益得到了一定的提振，股价全年上涨了11%。但考虑到标普500指数在21年全年涨幅达到28%，且以科技股为主的纳斯达克综合指数全年涨幅也达到23%的背景下，奈飞的股票在2021年里的表现并不“及格”。奈飞股价涨幅不及标普500奈飞股价涨幅不及纳指公司股价下跌的背后，有着各式各样的原因，但对奈飞来说，影响其股价的最主要原因就是订阅用户量。订阅数之殇奈飞在第四季度中，全球流媒体付费订阅用户人数净增828万，市场预期为813万。到2021年末时，奈飞在全球拥有的流媒体付费用户总数达2.2184亿。展望2022年第一季度，奈飞预计流媒体付费用户将增加250万，该数值低于去年同期的400万，且远远低于市场预期的增加626万。在四季度中，虽然奈飞订阅数的净增量打破市场预期的813万，但要知道，在第三季度的财报中，管理层曾乐观预计公司在第四季度的新增用户将达到850万。智通财经APP注意到，订阅增速的下降还反映在用户数增长年率中，在2020年第四季度时，奈飞的订阅用户数增长率达到惊人的21.9%，然而进入到2021年后，增长率已经较早时的两位数下降到个位数。而在管理层给出的第一季度最新指引中，其用户数增长年率仅为8%，较去年同期下降了5.6个百分点。数据来源：奈飞财报曾有观点认为，随着新冠疫情的慢慢退却，人们对于居家娱乐的需求会出现下降，这很可能会对奈飞构成影响。在Q3的财报业绩会议中，奈飞的高管们就曾表示，该公司的订阅者数量已经度过了新冠疫情时的“波动期”，正慢慢恢复到“正常”水平。因此，或许正是新冠疫情将奈飞推到本不属于自己的高度，而随着管理层开始意识到高增长不可持续后，便给出了相对保守的指引。营运利润率恐跌破“3%增长线”市场此前看好奈飞股价的一个重要因素是：尽管考虑到季间会出现波动，但其总体的盈利能力指标会随着时间的推移而不断扩大。第四季度中，奈飞的营运利润率为8%，高于公司的预测指引6.5%，但相较前年同期的14%，仍有不少的差距。2021全年的营运利润率依然达到20.9%，位于公司此前的预期区间--20%以上。虽然在第四季度中，公司整体营收仍保持较快的速度增长，但营运收入仅有6.32亿，较2020年同期下降34%，较第三季度下降了64%。数据来源：奈飞财报应该说，公司管理层早已为此次较低营运利润率打过预防针，在前一次会议上，管理层将营运利润率的降低，归咎于奈飞将积压制作的节目内容放在第四季度中播出，这导致节目内容资产为公司带来了大笔的摊销。而在此次的财报上，奈飞也再次提及了上述的原因。在四季度，内容资产的摊销达到37.4亿美元，是近两年内摊销数额最大的一个季度。数据来源：奈飞财报此外，奈飞预测今年一季度公司的营运收入为17.65亿美元，营运利润率为22.3%。该指引相较去年一季度的表现来说，存在小幅度的下降。同时，公司预计2022年的营运利润率无法实现此前高喊的每年增长3%（即今年营运利润率本应该达22%，但公司给出的指引区间为19-20%）。管理层对于预期利润率的下降，将原因更多地归咎在汇率变动方面，而不是由于收入水平的降低。奈飞营运利润率增长将跌破“3%增长线”？激烈的流媒体竞争单位：百万数据来源：各大公司财报注：此为每季末的订阅用户数，Discovery+在2021年后才发行，因此之前的数据未进入统计过去，对于市场竞争，奈飞通常会表示，公司面临着来自不同领域的竞争对手，但其他公司的流媒体服务并不会对其构成太大威胁。奈飞一直坚持认为，流媒体的观看时长仍未达到该有的水平。但在本季奈飞最新的致股东信中，有一句话却显得特别碍眼：“虽然竞争加剧可能会影响我们的利润率增长...”，有分析认为，这是奈飞承认竞争激烈的有力证明：流媒体竞争正在影响其用户增长。在订阅用户方面，Disney+可谓是异军突起，虽然最新数据要到2月份的财报业绩公布时才会出炉，但从以往的信息来看，截至2021年的第三季度，Disney+已拥有超过 1.18 亿的全球付费用户。该流媒体服务在第三季度中增加了 210 万订阅用户，且在过去 12 个月内增加了 4440 万订阅用户。而对于2024年的用户数量预期，迪士尼也从起初的6000 万至 9000 万区间，提升至2.3 亿至 2.6 亿。除了Disney+外，其他同行的势头也不容小觑。在去年5月，AT&T就已同意将旗下华纳媒体（WarnerMedia）与媒体巨头Discovery Inc.合并，以加强在流媒体市场上的竞争力。有消息指新班底除了有意将Discovery易名为Warner Bros. Discovery 外，更有意将HBO Max 及Discovery+ 合并为同一平台。一方面，HBO MAX本身就有一定的用户基础。据了解，到2021年底，HBO和HBO Max的订阅用户已达到了约7380万，一举跻身于竞争激烈的流媒体市场前列。而在去年10月，AT&T预测用户总数到年底时将提高到7300万，因此此次实际数目超过了该公司此前的预测，使其跻身于竞争激烈的流媒体市场前列。而在推出包括The Sex Lives of College Girls和Sex and The City在内的热门剧集续集后，HBO Max在第四季度的订阅用户数量得到了明显提升。另一方面，受益于Discovery+在2021年的成功推出后，该公司流媒体服务的订阅用户仅用三个季度就猛增至2000万。在合并后，相信在协同作用的推动下，将为公司带来更多的利益以及更多的订阅量。虽然奈飞在订阅增速上可能并不如部分流媒体同行那么出众，但其自身庞大的用户基数，使其目前勉强坐稳流媒体行业的头把交椅。智通财经APP曾报道，在较为出色的第三季度中，受到热播剧集《鱿鱼游戏》的推动，新增用户数一举达到438万，并突破了此前的预期。数据来源：Nielsen research在激烈的市场中，奈飞不仅要面对来自流媒体同行的竞争，也要面对来自有线电视、广播电视和其他领域（如：电子游戏）的竞争。事实上，根据调查，在11月，感恩节假期以及休息时间的增多激励消费者每周多花5%的时间观看电视节目。值得注意的是，离校时间增多让学生有机会把花时间放在电子游戏(包括在“其他”类别中)何观看Disney+上的内容。虽然，广播电视的市场份额较10份月有所下降，这主要是因为一般的电视剧和情景喜剧的收视率下降，但体育节目收视率依然强劲，即使没有世界大赛，收视率也上升了7%。而在流媒体中，Disney+受益于该月有近20%的观影时间增长，市场份额较10月份上涨1%。推动这一增长的主要因素有两个:平台主要用户(小孩、儿童)的观影时间增多，以及Disney+ Day在该月发行了新的电影《尚气》和《丛林奇航》。此外，亚马逊的Prime Video的总市场份额仍维持在2%，但该平台上的总观影时间依然比10月份时增加了8%。而奈飞10月和11月的整体市场份额基本稳定在7%，相较9月时的6%有了1%的提升。在流体行业中，奈飞面临的最大挑战是来自于Youtube，后者在整体的市场份额上（6%）可谓紧咬着奈飞不放。当然HULU也是一位不容小觑的对手，后者高性价比正越来越受到观众的青睐。定价方面，奈飞一路都处于行业内较高的位置。而进入到2022年，奈飞宣布提高其在美国和加拿大地区的订阅价格。其中，美国的基础账户费用从每月8.99美元涨至9.99美元，标准账户费用从每月13.99美元涨至15.49美元，高级账户费用从每月17.99美元涨至19.99美元。加拿大的标准账户费用从14.99加元涨至16.49加元，高级帐户费用上涨2加元至20.99加元，基础账户费用保持不变，为9.99加元。而如果竞争真的开始侵蚀订阅用户的部分增长，那么价格上涨可能会增加客户流失的风险。原创影集这张“王牌”还在手在2021年里，奈飞推出了一系列精彩的节目内容。根据谷歌热门搜索榜单的统计，搜索次数排名前10的电视剧集中，有6部属于奈飞的原创剧集。其中，排名第一的就是广为人知的《鱿鱼游戏》，而奈飞的另一部剧集《布里奇顿》则名列第二。来源：谷歌热门影集《鱿鱼游戏》在推出后立刻火爆全球，该剧集是在第三季度末推出的，在第四季度的前四周，该剧集收获的观看时间达到16.5亿小时，创下奈飞有史以来最高的播放量。同时，管理层证实《鱿鱼游戏》将会推出第二季。奈飞联合首席执行官Ted Sarandos对此表示:“《鱿鱼游戏》宇宙才刚刚开启!”此外，随着《鱿鱼游戏》的热播，奈飞还推出了一系列该剧集的周边产品，如《鱿鱼游戏》中参赛者们身穿的运动服。在12月时，奈飞发布了一系列新的续作影集：《The Witcher》、《You》、《Emily in Paris》、《Cobra Kai》以及《Maid》。另外，作为奈飞史上最成功的外语电视剧之一--西班牙电视剧《纸钞屋》，在第四季度中完美落幕，该电视剧自第一季播出以来共收获67亿小时的播放时间。同时，奈飞正有意扩张《纸钞屋》宇宙，将在今年晚些时候推出韩国版的《纸钞屋》。而在2022年度中，奈飞将继续在原创剧集上下功夫，并推出一系列新的原创剧集系列。此外，“怪奇物语”和“布里奇顿”等热门IP剧集的续作也将在本年度内推出。“见风使舵”的投行们在奈飞财报公布前，有将近40家机构给予奈飞“增持”评级。而在奈飞公布财报后，KeyBanc就率先将奈飞评级由“增持”下调至“持有”。而在一月份财报公布前，该机构才刚刚重申其对奈飞的“增持”评级。目前，该行分析师认为，该股几乎没有什么增长的驱动因素。此外，高盛分析师给予奈飞“中性”的投资评级，该行分析师认为，该股在过去18个月里一直表现欠佳，市场对该公司在疫情后正常情况下的增长率会如何仍有争议。近三个月来机构关于奈飞的评级与目标价据相关统计，在过去3个月内，分析师发布对奈飞未来一年的目标价中，平均值为535.83美元，最高值为800美元，最低值342美元。目标价区间总结奈飞管理层用“业务状况良好，用户留存率很高，用户流失率下降，收视率上升”来评价本次的业绩，但从各类数据来看，奈飞在流媒体市场面临越发激烈的竞争是不争的事实。而随着新冠疫情的消退，人们生活回归正常，奈飞用户增速最终“正常化”在什么区间内，是所有投资者最为侧重的一个点，也是决定其股价走势的重要因素。另外，在四季度中，奈飞并没有回购的操作。根据财报，奈飞将部分现金用作收购Roald Dahl故事公司。而对于奈飞去年正式宣布进军游戏行业，能否在新的一年中为奈飞带来新的增长亦是市场关注的又一重点话题。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"NFLX":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2286,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9007047841,"gmtCreate":1642726430502,"gmtModify":1676533740389,"author":{"id":"3571264504108019","authorId":"3571264504108019","name":"ChrisChen123","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3571264504108019","idStr":"3571264504108019"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Ok","listText":"Ok","text":"Ok","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9007047841","repostId":"1104054855","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2366,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0}],"hots":[{"id":9007862539,"gmtCreate":1642828659303,"gmtModify":1676533751100,"author":{"id":"3571264504108019","authorId":"3571264504108019","name":"ChrisChen123","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3571264504108019","idStr":"3571264504108019"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/TSLA\">$特斯拉(TSLA)$</a>Tesla going to 1200$ after Q4 earning.&nbsp;","listText":"<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/TSLA\">$特斯拉(TSLA)$</a>Tesla going to 1200$ after Q4 earning.&nbsp;","text":"$特斯拉(TSLA)$Tesla going to 1200$ after Q4 earning.","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":6,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9007862539","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":3010,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9007418563,"gmtCreate":1642983145779,"gmtModify":1676533761532,"author":{"id":"3571264504108019","authorId":"3571264504108019","name":"ChrisChen123","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3571264504108019","idStr":"3571264504108019"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"1","listText":"1","text":"1","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9007418563","repostId":"2205707838","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2543,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9037445291,"gmtCreate":1648170727305,"gmtModify":1676534312798,"author":{"id":"3571264504108019","authorId":"3571264504108019","name":"ChrisChen123","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3571264504108019","idStr":"3571264504108019"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Then short it and hold your shorts for 5 years. Donkey.&nbsp;","listText":"Then short it and hold your shorts for 5 years. Donkey.&nbsp;","text":"Then short it and hold your shorts for 5 years. Donkey.","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9037445291","repostId":"2222400641","repostType":2,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2040,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9090955181,"gmtCreate":1643070477946,"gmtModify":1676533770870,"author":{"id":"3571264504108019","authorId":"3571264504108019","name":"ChrisChen123","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3571264504108019","idStr":"3571264504108019"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"OK","listText":"OK","text":"OK","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9090955181","repostId":"2206688527","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2055,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9090056607,"gmtCreate":1643040244094,"gmtModify":1676533767941,"author":{"id":"3571264504108019","authorId":"3571264504108019","name":"ChrisChen123","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3571264504108019","idStr":"3571264504108019"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"I bought dip. Wish you luck. I'm Long Tesla and palantir. No other stocks. We will be rich one day.&nbsp;","listText":"I bought dip. Wish you luck. I'm Long Tesla and palantir. No other stocks. We will be rich one day.&nbsp;","text":"I bought dip. Wish you luck. I'm Long Tesla and palantir. No other stocks. We will be rich one day.","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9090056607","repostId":"9090026263","repostType":1,"repost":{"id":9090026263,"gmtCreate":1643038045802,"gmtModify":1676533767715,"author":{"id":"3574309605005459","authorId":"3574309605005459","name":"Palantard SG","avatar":"https://static.itradeup.com/news/337dc13df0a91652d56aab40db13a130","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3574309605005459","idStr":"3574309605005459"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/PLTR\">$Palantir Technologies Inc.(PLTR)$</a>Still waitin","listText":"<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/PLTR\">$Palantir Technologies Inc.(PLTR)$</a>Still waitin","text":"$Palantir Technologies Inc.(PLTR)$Still waitin","images":[{"img":"https://static.itradeup.com/news/57e298b76d4c274d3a3cf6c675bc42c1","width":"1170","height":"2532"}],"top":1,"highlighted":2,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9090026263","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":0,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2476,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9007416839,"gmtCreate":1642983210610,"gmtModify":1676533761554,"author":{"id":"3571264504108019","authorId":"3571264504108019","name":"ChrisChen123","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3571264504108019","idStr":"3571264504108019"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Ok","listText":"Ok","text":"Ok","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9007416839","repostId":"2205190020","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"2205190020","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1642948500,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/2205190020?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2022-01-23 22:35","market":"sh","language":"zh","title":"The blessing of Tesla and Apple doesn't work either: Changying Precision, which is \"short of cores\", has a maximum pre-loss of nearly 700 million","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2205190020","media":"界面新闻","summary":"　　特斯拉、苹果加持也不管用，“缺芯”的长盈精密业绩暴雷，最高预亏近7亿。　　新能源汽车行业爆发，坐拥特斯拉、宁德时代、苹果等重要客户的长盈精密业绩却暴雷了。这是长盈精密上市11年以来的首次年度亏损，且亏损金额相对其自身体量已规模较大。亏损在三季度已有苗头，第三季度单季亏损0.79亿元。但长盈精密并未披露具体存货计提减值金额。","content":"<p><div>For stock trading, read the Jin Qilin analyst research report, which is authoritative, professional, timely and comprehensive, helping you tap potential theme opportunities! Original title: The blessing of Tesla and Apple doesn't work either. The performance of Changying Precision, which is \"short of cores\", has thundered, with a maximum pre-loss of nearly 700 million. Reporter | Zhang Yi's new energy automobile industry broke out, sitting on Tesla, Ningde Times (300750. SZ), Apple and other important customers, has experienced a thunderstorm. Changying Precision's performance forecast on the evening of January 23 showed that the company expects a loss of 490 million yuan to 690 million yuan in 2021,...</p><p><a href=\"https://finance.sina.com.cn/stock/s/2022-01-23/doc-ikyakumy2163752.shtml\">Web link</a></div></p>","source":"sina","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>The blessing of Tesla and Apple doesn't work either: Changying Precision, which is \"short of cores\", has a maximum pre-loss of nearly 700 million</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nThe blessing of Tesla and Apple doesn't work either: Changying Precision, which is \"short of cores\", has a maximum pre-loss of nearly 700 million\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">界面新闻</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2022-01-23 22:35</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><div>For stock trading, read the Jin Qilin analyst research report, which is authoritative, professional, timely and comprehensive, helping you tap potential theme opportunities! Original title: The blessing of Tesla and Apple doesn't work either. The performance of Changying Precision, which is \"short of cores\", has thundered, with a maximum pre-loss of nearly 700 million. Reporter | Zhang Yi's new energy automobile industry broke out, sitting on Tesla, Ningde Times (300750. SZ), Apple and other important customers, has experienced a thunderstorm. Changying Precision's performance forecast on the evening of January 23 showed that the company expects a loss of 490 million yuan to 690 million yuan in 2021,...</p><p><a href=\"https://finance.sina.com.cn/stock/s/2022-01-23/doc-ikyakumy2163752.shtml\">Web link</a></div></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> source：<a href=\"https://finance.sina.com.cn/stock/s/2022-01-23/doc-ikyakumy2163752.shtml\">界面新闻</a></p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3e707b08b9b2e46de2e172fbe3a489c3","relate_stocks":{"300115":"长盈精密","BK4554":"元宇宙及AR概念","BK4532":"文艺复兴科技持仓","AAPL":"苹果","BK4501":"段永平概念","BK4553":"喜马拉雅资本持仓","BK4527":"明星科技股","BK4099":"汽车制造商","BK4534":"瑞士信贷持仓","BK4555":"新能源车","BK4533":"AQR资本管理(全球第二大对冲基金)","BK4566":"资本集团","BK4505":"高瓴资本持仓","BK4515":"5G概念","BK4559":"巴菲特持仓","BK4550":"红杉资本持仓","BK4548":"巴美列捷福持仓","BK4507":"流媒体概念","TSLA":"特斯拉","BK4170":"电脑硬件、储存设备及电脑周边","BK4551":"寇图资本持仓"},"source_url":"https://finance.sina.com.cn/stock/s/2022-01-23/doc-ikyakumy2163752.shtml","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/b0d1b7e8843deea78cc308b15114de44","article_id":"2205190020","content_text":"炒股就看金麒麟分析师研报，权威，专业，及时，全面，助您挖掘潜力主题机会！ 　　原标题：特斯拉、苹果加持也不管用，“缺芯”的长盈精密业绩暴雷，最高预亏近7亿\n　　记者 | 张艺\n　　新能源汽车行业爆发，坐拥特斯拉、宁德时代（300750.SZ）、苹果等重要客户的长盈精密（300115.SZ）业绩却暴雷了。\n　　长盈精密1月23日晚间业绩预告显示，公司预计2021年亏损4.90亿元至亏损6.90亿元，上年同期为盈利超6亿元；扣非后净利润为-6.50亿元至-8.50亿元。这是长盈精密上市11年以来的首次年度亏损，且亏损金额相对其自身体量已规模较大。\n　　之所以让人意外，是因为长盈精密业绩冰火两重天。去年前三个季度公司还是盈利的，归属于上市公司股东的净利润为1.57亿元。意味着，公司在第四季度单季亏损6.47亿元至亏损8.47亿元。亏损在三季度已有苗头，第三季度单季亏损0.79亿元。\n\n　　长盈精密2021年年报业绩预告\n　　对于业绩亏损的原因，长盈精密提出五点解释，包括研发费用增加、缺芯影响、原材料涨价、存货减值等。\n　　公告称，公司主要客户战略产品研发投入进一步增大，费用增加，新能源零组件布局及研发投入增加；主要客户重点产品处于量产爬坡期，良率低；部分生产制造基地受疫情、客户芯片短缺等影响，产能利用率下降、生产成本上升；主要原材料铜、铝等大幅涨价，短期内难以消化。\n　　期末部分存货因上述原因存在减值情况，计提了减值准备。但长盈精密并未披露具体存货计提减值金额。\n　　长盈精密本为消费电子企业，近年公司逐步由精密制造向智能制造方向发展，业务延伸至移动通信终端、新能源汽车零组件、机器人及智能制造领域等市场。\n　　目前长盈精密拥有两大业务板块，分别是消费电子精密零组件业务和新能源汽车精密零组件业务。\n　　在消费类电子产品方面，长盈精密主要供应智能终端零组件，包括智能手机金属外观件、冲压五金件、笔记本电脑及新型硬件结构件、超精密链接器等；新能源汽车零组件方面则包括氢燃料电池金属双极板、高压母排、动力电池结构件、充电枪等。\n　　在这两大业务上，长盈精密客户不乏行业巨头。\n　　消费电子领域，长盈精密与大客户苹果、华为、小米等头部手机品牌供应商。\n　　新能源汽车业务方面，长盈精密是特斯拉重要零部件供应商，动力电池龙头企业宁德时代也是其重要客户。\n　　2017年，长盈精密与特斯拉首次开展合作，并逐步成为特斯拉新能源汽车零组件的供应商，在部分高精度产品占据核心供应份额。除特斯拉以外，长盈新能源汽车领域还有诸多重要客户，包括PSA、戴姆勒奔驰、上海汽车、吉利汽车等。\n　　不论是新能源汽车，还是机器人等，长盈精密所处行业均是景气度向上的行业，也符合政策方向，同时，公司也都拥有着重量级的客户，缘何长盈精密会在单季出现业绩暴雷呢？\n　　一大原因或许是新业务布局步子迈得太大了。\n　　为了与特斯拉和宁德时代密切绑定，长盈精密提出了对重点客户“就近配套”的思路。围绕这一思路，公司多地新建生产基地。\n　　2020年，长盈精密非公开增发募资19亿元，其中部分资金用于打造上海临港新能源汽车零组件基地。\n　　2021年，长盈精密合计投资25亿元在四川宜宾、江苏常州、福建宁德三地建设动力电池结构件生产基地，以配套宁德时代等客户。\n　　公司最新对投资者交流时回复称，宁德长盈、常州长盈已在2021年上半年相继投产，宜宾长盈预计也正在投产。\n　　互动易上，长盈精密还称，公司新能源业务利润下降系原材料上涨及公司大规模扩产所致。“公司研发费用增加主要系国际客户新项目研发人工、材料费用等增加所致；管理费用主要系新能源业务管理团队增加，员工结构调整等所致。”\n　　重心扑在新能源领域的同时，长盈精密新能源汽车业务的营收占比并不高。2021年上半年，这一业务营收只有4.37亿元，营收占比近10%。\n　　与此同时，电子连接器及智能电子产品营收占比近半，消费类电子精密结构件及模组占比近40%。因此，“缺芯”或许是长盈精密伤筋动骨更重要的原因。\n　　2022年以来长盈精密股价持续下跌，累积跌幅达18.80%，最新收盘价16.11元/股。\n　　大客户也不能为长盈精密带来业绩保障，具体亏在何处，要待年报披露。\n\n集虎卡，开鸿运！最高拆522元惊喜福袋！\n\n\n\n\n海量资讯、精准解读，尽在新浪财经APP\n\n责任编辑：张熠","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"300115":1,"AAPL":1,"TSLA":1}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2422,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9007862348,"gmtCreate":1642828490182,"gmtModify":1676533751092,"author":{"id":"3571264504108019","authorId":"3571264504108019","name":"ChrisChen123","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3571264504108019","idStr":"3571264504108019"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Ok&nbsp;","listText":"Ok&nbsp;","text":"Ok","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9007862348","repostId":"1166623001","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1166623001","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1642816721,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1166623001?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2022-01-22 09:58","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"Netflix has been unable to rise for a long time, and the new year will be under new \"pressure\"","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1166623001","media":"智通财经网","summary":"王者垂暮？","content":"<p><html><head></head><body>Author: Chen Shiye</p><p>After the US stock market closed on January 20, Eastern Time, Netflix announced its financial report for the fourth quarter of 2021.</p><p>The financial report shows that the company's Q4 revenue was US $7.709 billion, compared with market expectations of US $7.708 billion, and US $6.644 billion in the same period last year, a year-on-year increase of 16%; Net profit was US $607 million, compared with market expectations of US $374 million, and US $542 million in the same period last year, a year-on-year increase of 12%; Diluted earnings per share were US $1.33, compared with market expectations of US $0.82 and US $1.19 in the same period last year.</p><p>In addition, the company's full-year revenue in 2021 will reach approximately 29.7 billion, and its full-year net profit will be 5.1 billion. Full-year diluted earnings per share were $11.24, exceeding consensus expectations of $10.7.</p><p>At first glance, Netflix's performance last year was quite impressive, with many indicators exceeding market expectations. However, after the financial report was announced, Netflix's after-hours stock price plummeted, plummeting 20%. In fact, in the near future, Netflix's stock price has been under pressure, especially since entering 2022, the company's stock price has fallen by more than 15%.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/24256afc889a3655d5af9c4fa34a222c\" tg-width=\"840\" tg-height=\"470\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p>Going back further, in 2021, Netflix successfully gained a large number of \"fans\" through the launch of a series of popular film and television dramas such as \"Squid Game\", and its performance has also benefited from this, and its stock price has risen by 11% throughout the year.. However, considering that the S&P 500 index has risen by 28% in 21 years, and the Nasdaq Composite Index, which is dominated by technology stocks, has also risen by 23% in 2021, Netflix's stock in 2021 The performance is not \"passing\".</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d7aa4f4375b8cfc44ce36691411ef0ab\" tg-width=\"553\" tg-height=\"232\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p>Netflix stock doesn't rise as much as S&P 500</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/06a813e6a701f73928c04dbbbcd08313\" tg-width=\"554\" tg-height=\"226\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p>Netflix shares don't rise as much as Nasdaq</p><p>There are various reasons behind the decline of the company's stock price, but for Netflix, the main reason affecting its stock price is the number of subscribers.</p><p><b>The tragedy of subscription numbers</b></p><p>In the fourth quarter, Netflix saw a net increase of 8.28 million in the number of global streaming media paid subscribers, compared with market expectations of 8.13 million. By the end of 2021, Netflix will have a total of 221.84 million paying streaming subscribers worldwide. Looking forward to the first quarter of 2022, Netflix expects streaming media paying users to increase by 2.5 million, which is lower than the 4 million in the same period last year and far lower than market expectations for an increase of 6.26 million.</p><p>In the fourth quarter, although the net increase in Netflix subscriptions exceeded market expectations of 8.13 million, you must know that in the third quarter financial report, the management was optimistic that the company's new users in the fourth quarter would reach 8.5 million. Zhitong Finance APP noticed that the decline in subscription growth is also reflected in the annual growth rate of the number of users. In the fourth quarter of 2020, Netflix's subscriber growth rate reached an astonishing 21.9%. However, after entering 2021, The growth rate has dropped from double digits earlier to single digits. In the latest guidance given by the management for the first quarter, the annual growth rate of its user number was only 8%, a decrease of 5.6 percentage points from the same period last year.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/842a699d0a8524eb18749294b2466784\" tg-width=\"480\" tg-height=\"288\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p>Data source: Netflix financial report</p><p>There was a view that as COVID-19 pandemic slowly retreats, people's demand for home entertainment will decline, which is likely to have an impact on Netflix. In the Q3 financial report meeting, Netflix executives said that the company's subscriber number has passed the \"volatility period\" during the COVID-19 pandemic and is slowly returning to \"normal\" levels. Therefore, perhaps it was COVID-19 pandemic who pushed Netflix to a height that did not belong to him, and as the management began to realize that high growth was unsustainable, it gave relatively conservative guidance.</p><p><b>Operating profit margin</b><b>Fall below the \"3% growth line\"</b></p><p>An important factor in the market's previous optimism about Netflix's stock price is that its overall profitability indicators will continue to expand over time, despite interquarterly fluctuations.</p><p>In the fourth quarter, Netflix's operating profit margin was 8%, higher than the company's forecast guidance of 6.5%, but compared with 14% in the same period last year, there is still a lot of gap. The operating profit margin for the full year of 2021 still reaches 20.9%, which is within the company's previous expected range--20% or more.</p><p>Although the company's overall revenue still maintained a rapid growth rate in the fourth quarter, operating income was only 632 million, a decrease of 34% from the same period in 2020 and a decrease of 64% from the third quarter.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8aa99576b0c290d8963c855648f68057\" tg-width=\"481\" tg-height=\"288\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p>Data source: Netflix financial report</p><p>It should be said that the company's management has already been vaccinated against this lower operating profit margin. At the previous meeting, the management attributed the reduction in operating profit margin to Netflix's placement of the backlog of program content in the fourth quarter. Broadcast in the quarter, this resulted in a large amortization of program content assets for the company. In this financial report, Netflix also mentioned the above reasons again. In the fourth quarter, the amortization of content assets reached US $3.74 billion, the largest amortization quarter in the past two years.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/bdd56ee165655765c5314d17c002d12e\" tg-width=\"480\" tg-height=\"288\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p>Data source: Netflix financial report</p><p>In addition, Netflix predicts that the company's operating income in the first quarter of this year will be US $1.765 billion, with an operating profit margin of 22.3%. Compared with the performance in the first quarter of last year, this guidance shows a slight decline. At the same time, the company expects that the operating profit margin in 2022 will not be able to achieve the previously shouted annual growth of 3% (that is, the operating profit margin should have reached 22% this year, but the company's guidance range is 19-20%). For the expected decline in profit margins, management blames the exchange rate change more than the decrease in revenue level.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ea1eb3366bf88da0f6562637c86008ce\" tg-width=\"515\" tg-height=\"314\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p>Will Netflix's operating margin growth fall below the \"3% growth line\"?</p><p><b>Fierce streaming competition</b></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f5e476061a5b8f0924ec6c2eeaba30fd\" tg-width=\"409\" tg-height=\"175\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p>Unit: Millions</p><p>Data source: financial reports of major companies</p><p>Note: This is the number of subscribers at the end of each quarter. Discovery will be released after 2021, so the previous data is not included in the statistics</p><p>In the past, regarding market competition, Netflix usually said that the company faced competitors from different fields, but the streaming services of other companies did not pose much threat to it. Netflix has always maintained that the viewing time of streaming media is still not as long as it should be. But in Netflix's latest letter to shareholders this season, there is a sentence that is particularly eyesore: \"Although intensified competition may affect our profit margin growth...\", some analysts believe that this is Netflix's admission of fierce competition. Powerful proof: Streaming competition is affecting its user growth.</p><p>In terms of subscribers, Disney + can be described as a sudden emergence. Although the latest data will not be released until the financial report results are announced in February, judging from past information, as of the third quarter of 2021, Disney + has more than 118 million global paying users. The streaming service added 2.1 million subscribers in the third quarter and 44.4 million subscribers in the past 12 months. As for the number of users expected in 2024, Disney has also increased from the initial range of 60 million to 90 million to 230 million to 260 million.</p><p>Aside from Disney +, the momentum of other peers is not to be underestimated. In May last year, AT&T agreed to merge its WarnerMedia with media giant Discovery Inc. to strengthen its competitiveness in the streaming media market. It is reported that in addition to renaming Discovery to Warner Bros. Discovery, the new team also intends to merge HBO Max and Discovery + into the same platform.</p><p>On the one hand, HBO MAX itself has a certain user base. It is understood that by the end of 2021, the number of subscribers of HBO and HBO Max has reached approximately 73.8 million, ranking among the forefront of the highly competitive streaming media market. In October last year, AT&T predicted that the total number of users would increase to 73 million by the end of the year, so the actual number this time exceeded the company's previous forecast, making it AT the forefront of the highly competitive streaming media market. And in the launch including The Sex Lives of College Girls After sequels to popular dramas, HBO Max saw a significant increase in the number of subscribers in the fourth quarter.</p><p>On the other hand, benefiting from the successful launch of Discovery + in 2021, the company's streaming service's subscribers soared to 20 million in just three quarters. After the merger, it is believed that driven by synergies, it will bring more benefits to the company as well as more subscriptions.</p><p>Although Netflix may not be as outstanding as some of its streaming media peers in terms of subscription growth, its own huge user base makes it barely secure the top spot in the streaming media industry. Zhitong Finance APP once reported that in the relatively excellent third quarter, driven by the hit drama series \"Squid Game\", the number of new users reached 4.38 million in one fell swoop, exceeding previous expectations.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b4efc8ce5d6ac5bec8417523c62ce4c6\" tg-width=\"554\" tg-height=\"309\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p>Data Source : Nielsen research</p><p>In the fierce market, Netflix has to face competition not only from streaming media peers, but also from cable TV, broadcast and other fields (such as video games).</p><p>In fact, according to the survey, in November, the Thanksgiving holiday and the increase of downtime encourage consumers to spend 5% more time watching TV programs every week. It is worth noting that the increased time away from school gives students the opportunity to spend time on video games (included in the \"Other\" category) and watch content on Disney +.</p><p>Although the market share of broadcast TV decreased from 10 months, mainly due to the decline in the ratings of general TV series and sitcoms, the ratings of sports programs remained strong, even without the World Series, the ratings rose by 7%.</p><p>In streaming media, Disney + benefited from a nearly 20% increase in viewing time that month, and its market share rose by 1% from October.</p><p>There are two main factors driving this growth: the increase in viewing time of the platform's main users (children, children), and the release of new movies \"Shang-Chi\" and \"Jungle Voyage\" by Disney + Day during the month.</p><p>In addition, the total market share of Amazon's Prime Video remains at 2%, but the total viewing time on the platform is still 8% higher than that in October.</p><p>Netflix's overall market share in October and November was basically stable at 7%, an increase of 1% from 6% in September. In the fluid industry, the biggest challenge Netflix faces comes from Youtube, which is clinging to Netflix in terms of overall market share (6%). Of course, HULU is also an opponent that can't be underestimated. The latter's high cost performance is becoming more and more favored by the audience.</p><p>In terms of pricing, Netflix has been in a high position in the industry all the way. Entering 2022, Netflix announced an increase in its subscription prices in the United States and Canada. Among them, the basic account fee in the United States has increased from $8.99 to $9.99 per month, the standard account fee has increased from $13.99 to $15.49 per month, and the premium account fee has increased from $17.99 to $19.99 per month. The standard account fee in Canada rose from C $14.99 to C $16.49, the premium account fee increased by C $2 to C $20.99, and the base account fee remained unchanged at C $9.99. And if competition really starts to erode some of the growth of subscribers, then price increases may increase the risk of customer churn.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/91fff80dee293a51bff366a7c25e51fe\" tg-width=\"553\" tg-height=\"375\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p><b>The \"trump card\" of the original album is still in hand</b></p><p>In 2021, Netflix launched a series of exciting program content. According to the statistics of Google's popular search list, 6 of the top 10 TV series with the highest number of searches belong to Netflix's original series. Among them, the well-known \"Squid Game\" ranked first, while another Netflix series \"Bridgerton\" ranked second.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3b2e1b6e4b7889ecf041401c63a996f1\" tg-width=\"554\" tg-height=\"282\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p>Source: Google</p><p>The popular series \"Squid Game\" became popular all over the world immediately after its launch. The series was launched at the end of the third quarter. In the first four weeks of the fourth quarter, the series gained 1.65 billion hours of viewing time, setting a record record in Netflix's history. The highest number of views. At the same time, management confirmed that Squid Game will launch a second season. Netflix co-CEO Ted Sarandos said: \"The universe of\" Squid Game \"has just begun!\" In addition, with the popularity of \"Squid Game\", Netflix has also launched a series of peripheral products of the series, such as The sportswear worn by the contestants in \"Squid Game\".</p><p>In December, Netflix released a series of new sequels: The Witcher, You, Emily in Paris, Cobra Kai, and Maid.</p><p>In addition, as one of the most successful foreign language TV series in Netflix's history, the Spanish TV series \"Banknote House\" ended perfectly in the fourth quarter. The TV series has gained 6.7 billion hours of broadcast time since the first season was broadcast. At the same time, Netflix is interested in expanding the universe of \"House of Banknotes\" and will launch the Korean version of \"House of Banknotes\" later this year.</p><p>In 2022, Netflix will continue to work hard on original drama series and launch a series of new original drama series. In addition, sequels to popular IP dramas such as \"Stranger Things\" and \"Bridgerton\" will also be launched this year.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a6d76dca983c7803be3c4b382f8a194c\" tg-width=\"608\" tg-height=\"793\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p><b>Investment bankers who \"see the wind and make the rudder\"</b></p><p>Before Netflix's financial report was released, nearly 40 institutions gave Netflix an \"overweight\" rating.</p><p>After Netflix announced its financial report, KeyBanc took the lead in lowering Netflix's rating from \"overweight\" to \"hold\". Before the January financial report was released, the agency had just reiterated its \"overweight\" rating on Netflix. Right now, analysts at the bank see few growth drivers for the stock.</p><p>In addition, Goldman Sachs analysts gave Netflix a \"neutral\" investment rating. Analysts at the bank believe that the stock has been underperforming in the past 18 months, and the market is still controversial about the company's growth rate under normal circumstances after the epidemic.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/41651b5eb31afb1cbb7f7b4ad9a4c737\" tg-width=\"514\" tg-height=\"386\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p>Institutional ratings and target prices on Netflix in the past three months</p><p>According to relevant statistics, in the past three months, analysts have released target prices for Netflix in the next year, with an average of US $535.83, a highest value of US $800, and a lowest value of US $342.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/82bf43c7d2250b760d4b4e27041c6ef5\" tg-width=\"554\" tg-height=\"373\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p>Target Price Range</p><p><b>sum up</b></p><p>Netflix's management used \"good business conditions, high user retention rate, decreased user churn rate, and increased ratings\" to evaluate this performance. However, judging from various data, Netflix is facing increasingly fierce competition in the streaming media market. It is an indisputable fact. As the COVID-19 pandemic subsides and people's lives return to normal, the range within which Netflix's user growth rate will eventually \"normalize\" is the most important point for all investors, and it is also an important factor in determining its stock price trend.</p><p>In addition, in the fourth quarter, Netflix did not repurchase operations. According to the financial report, Netflix used part of the cash to acquire Roald Dahl Story Company. As for Netflix's official announcement of its entry into the game industry last year, whether it can bring new growth to Netflix in the new year is another key topic of market concern.</p><p></body></html></p>","source":"highlight_zhitongcaijin","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Netflix has been unable to rise for a long time, and the new year will be under new \"pressure\"</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nNetflix has been unable to rise for a long time, and the new year will be under new \"pressure\"\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">智通财经网</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2022-01-22 09:58</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><html><head></head><body>Author: Chen Shiye</p><p>After the US stock market closed on January 20, Eastern Time, Netflix announced its financial report for the fourth quarter of 2021.</p><p>The financial report shows that the company's Q4 revenue was US $7.709 billion, compared with market expectations of US $7.708 billion, and US $6.644 billion in the same period last year, a year-on-year increase of 16%; Net profit was US $607 million, compared with market expectations of US $374 million, and US $542 million in the same period last year, a year-on-year increase of 12%; Diluted earnings per share were US $1.33, compared with market expectations of US $0.82 and US $1.19 in the same period last year.</p><p>In addition, the company's full-year revenue in 2021 will reach approximately 29.7 billion, and its full-year net profit will be 5.1 billion. Full-year diluted earnings per share were $11.24, exceeding consensus expectations of $10.7.</p><p>At first glance, Netflix's performance last year was quite impressive, with many indicators exceeding market expectations. However, after the financial report was announced, Netflix's after-hours stock price plummeted, plummeting 20%. In fact, in the near future, Netflix's stock price has been under pressure, especially since entering 2022, the company's stock price has fallen by more than 15%.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/24256afc889a3655d5af9c4fa34a222c\" tg-width=\"840\" tg-height=\"470\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p>Going back further, in 2021, Netflix successfully gained a large number of \"fans\" through the launch of a series of popular film and television dramas such as \"Squid Game\", and its performance has also benefited from this, and its stock price has risen by 11% throughout the year.. However, considering that the S&P 500 index has risen by 28% in 21 years, and the Nasdaq Composite Index, which is dominated by technology stocks, has also risen by 23% in 2021, Netflix's stock in 2021 The performance is not \"passing\".</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d7aa4f4375b8cfc44ce36691411ef0ab\" tg-width=\"553\" tg-height=\"232\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p>Netflix stock doesn't rise as much as S&P 500</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/06a813e6a701f73928c04dbbbcd08313\" tg-width=\"554\" tg-height=\"226\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p>Netflix shares don't rise as much as Nasdaq</p><p>There are various reasons behind the decline of the company's stock price, but for Netflix, the main reason affecting its stock price is the number of subscribers.</p><p><b>The tragedy of subscription numbers</b></p><p>In the fourth quarter, Netflix saw a net increase of 8.28 million in the number of global streaming media paid subscribers, compared with market expectations of 8.13 million. By the end of 2021, Netflix will have a total of 221.84 million paying streaming subscribers worldwide. Looking forward to the first quarter of 2022, Netflix expects streaming media paying users to increase by 2.5 million, which is lower than the 4 million in the same period last year and far lower than market expectations for an increase of 6.26 million.</p><p>In the fourth quarter, although the net increase in Netflix subscriptions exceeded market expectations of 8.13 million, you must know that in the third quarter financial report, the management was optimistic that the company's new users in the fourth quarter would reach 8.5 million. Zhitong Finance APP noticed that the decline in subscription growth is also reflected in the annual growth rate of the number of users. In the fourth quarter of 2020, Netflix's subscriber growth rate reached an astonishing 21.9%. However, after entering 2021, The growth rate has dropped from double digits earlier to single digits. In the latest guidance given by the management for the first quarter, the annual growth rate of its user number was only 8%, a decrease of 5.6 percentage points from the same period last year.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/842a699d0a8524eb18749294b2466784\" tg-width=\"480\" tg-height=\"288\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p>Data source: Netflix financial report</p><p>There was a view that as COVID-19 pandemic slowly retreats, people's demand for home entertainment will decline, which is likely to have an impact on Netflix. In the Q3 financial report meeting, Netflix executives said that the company's subscriber number has passed the \"volatility period\" during the COVID-19 pandemic and is slowly returning to \"normal\" levels. Therefore, perhaps it was COVID-19 pandemic who pushed Netflix to a height that did not belong to him, and as the management began to realize that high growth was unsustainable, it gave relatively conservative guidance.</p><p><b>Operating profit margin</b><b>Fall below the \"3% growth line\"</b></p><p>An important factor in the market's previous optimism about Netflix's stock price is that its overall profitability indicators will continue to expand over time, despite interquarterly fluctuations.</p><p>In the fourth quarter, Netflix's operating profit margin was 8%, higher than the company's forecast guidance of 6.5%, but compared with 14% in the same period last year, there is still a lot of gap. The operating profit margin for the full year of 2021 still reaches 20.9%, which is within the company's previous expected range--20% or more.</p><p>Although the company's overall revenue still maintained a rapid growth rate in the fourth quarter, operating income was only 632 million, a decrease of 34% from the same period in 2020 and a decrease of 64% from the third quarter.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8aa99576b0c290d8963c855648f68057\" tg-width=\"481\" tg-height=\"288\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p>Data source: Netflix financial report</p><p>It should be said that the company's management has already been vaccinated against this lower operating profit margin. At the previous meeting, the management attributed the reduction in operating profit margin to Netflix's placement of the backlog of program content in the fourth quarter. Broadcast in the quarter, this resulted in a large amortization of program content assets for the company. In this financial report, Netflix also mentioned the above reasons again. In the fourth quarter, the amortization of content assets reached US $3.74 billion, the largest amortization quarter in the past two years.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/bdd56ee165655765c5314d17c002d12e\" tg-width=\"480\" tg-height=\"288\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p>Data source: Netflix financial report</p><p>In addition, Netflix predicts that the company's operating income in the first quarter of this year will be US $1.765 billion, with an operating profit margin of 22.3%. Compared with the performance in the first quarter of last year, this guidance shows a slight decline. At the same time, the company expects that the operating profit margin in 2022 will not be able to achieve the previously shouted annual growth of 3% (that is, the operating profit margin should have reached 22% this year, but the company's guidance range is 19-20%). For the expected decline in profit margins, management blames the exchange rate change more than the decrease in revenue level.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ea1eb3366bf88da0f6562637c86008ce\" tg-width=\"515\" tg-height=\"314\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p>Will Netflix's operating margin growth fall below the \"3% growth line\"?</p><p><b>Fierce streaming competition</b></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f5e476061a5b8f0924ec6c2eeaba30fd\" tg-width=\"409\" tg-height=\"175\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p>Unit: Millions</p><p>Data source: financial reports of major companies</p><p>Note: This is the number of subscribers at the end of each quarter. Discovery will be released after 2021, so the previous data is not included in the statistics</p><p>In the past, regarding market competition, Netflix usually said that the company faced competitors from different fields, but the streaming services of other companies did not pose much threat to it. Netflix has always maintained that the viewing time of streaming media is still not as long as it should be. But in Netflix's latest letter to shareholders this season, there is a sentence that is particularly eyesore: \"Although intensified competition may affect our profit margin growth...\", some analysts believe that this is Netflix's admission of fierce competition. Powerful proof: Streaming competition is affecting its user growth.</p><p>In terms of subscribers, Disney + can be described as a sudden emergence. Although the latest data will not be released until the financial report results are announced in February, judging from past information, as of the third quarter of 2021, Disney + has more than 118 million global paying users. The streaming service added 2.1 million subscribers in the third quarter and 44.4 million subscribers in the past 12 months. As for the number of users expected in 2024, Disney has also increased from the initial range of 60 million to 90 million to 230 million to 260 million.</p><p>Aside from Disney +, the momentum of other peers is not to be underestimated. In May last year, AT&T agreed to merge its WarnerMedia with media giant Discovery Inc. to strengthen its competitiveness in the streaming media market. It is reported that in addition to renaming Discovery to Warner Bros. Discovery, the new team also intends to merge HBO Max and Discovery + into the same platform.</p><p>On the one hand, HBO MAX itself has a certain user base. It is understood that by the end of 2021, the number of subscribers of HBO and HBO Max has reached approximately 73.8 million, ranking among the forefront of the highly competitive streaming media market. In October last year, AT&T predicted that the total number of users would increase to 73 million by the end of the year, so the actual number this time exceeded the company's previous forecast, making it AT the forefront of the highly competitive streaming media market. And in the launch including The Sex Lives of College Girls After sequels to popular dramas, HBO Max saw a significant increase in the number of subscribers in the fourth quarter.</p><p>On the other hand, benefiting from the successful launch of Discovery + in 2021, the company's streaming service's subscribers soared to 20 million in just three quarters. After the merger, it is believed that driven by synergies, it will bring more benefits to the company as well as more subscriptions.</p><p>Although Netflix may not be as outstanding as some of its streaming media peers in terms of subscription growth, its own huge user base makes it barely secure the top spot in the streaming media industry. Zhitong Finance APP once reported that in the relatively excellent third quarter, driven by the hit drama series \"Squid Game\", the number of new users reached 4.38 million in one fell swoop, exceeding previous expectations.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b4efc8ce5d6ac5bec8417523c62ce4c6\" tg-width=\"554\" tg-height=\"309\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p>Data Source : Nielsen research</p><p>In the fierce market, Netflix has to face competition not only from streaming media peers, but also from cable TV, broadcast and other fields (such as video games).</p><p>In fact, according to the survey, in November, the Thanksgiving holiday and the increase of downtime encourage consumers to spend 5% more time watching TV programs every week. It is worth noting that the increased time away from school gives students the opportunity to spend time on video games (included in the \"Other\" category) and watch content on Disney +.</p><p>Although the market share of broadcast TV decreased from 10 months, mainly due to the decline in the ratings of general TV series and sitcoms, the ratings of sports programs remained strong, even without the World Series, the ratings rose by 7%.</p><p>In streaming media, Disney + benefited from a nearly 20% increase in viewing time that month, and its market share rose by 1% from October.</p><p>There are two main factors driving this growth: the increase in viewing time of the platform's main users (children, children), and the release of new movies \"Shang-Chi\" and \"Jungle Voyage\" by Disney + Day during the month.</p><p>In addition, the total market share of Amazon's Prime Video remains at 2%, but the total viewing time on the platform is still 8% higher than that in October.</p><p>Netflix's overall market share in October and November was basically stable at 7%, an increase of 1% from 6% in September. In the fluid industry, the biggest challenge Netflix faces comes from Youtube, which is clinging to Netflix in terms of overall market share (6%). Of course, HULU is also an opponent that can't be underestimated. The latter's high cost performance is becoming more and more favored by the audience.</p><p>In terms of pricing, Netflix has been in a high position in the industry all the way. Entering 2022, Netflix announced an increase in its subscription prices in the United States and Canada. Among them, the basic account fee in the United States has increased from $8.99 to $9.99 per month, the standard account fee has increased from $13.99 to $15.49 per month, and the premium account fee has increased from $17.99 to $19.99 per month. The standard account fee in Canada rose from C $14.99 to C $16.49, the premium account fee increased by C $2 to C $20.99, and the base account fee remained unchanged at C $9.99. And if competition really starts to erode some of the growth of subscribers, then price increases may increase the risk of customer churn.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/91fff80dee293a51bff366a7c25e51fe\" tg-width=\"553\" tg-height=\"375\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p><b>The \"trump card\" of the original album is still in hand</b></p><p>In 2021, Netflix launched a series of exciting program content. According to the statistics of Google's popular search list, 6 of the top 10 TV series with the highest number of searches belong to Netflix's original series. Among them, the well-known \"Squid Game\" ranked first, while another Netflix series \"Bridgerton\" ranked second.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3b2e1b6e4b7889ecf041401c63a996f1\" tg-width=\"554\" tg-height=\"282\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p>Source: Google</p><p>The popular series \"Squid Game\" became popular all over the world immediately after its launch. The series was launched at the end of the third quarter. In the first four weeks of the fourth quarter, the series gained 1.65 billion hours of viewing time, setting a record record in Netflix's history. The highest number of views. At the same time, management confirmed that Squid Game will launch a second season. Netflix co-CEO Ted Sarandos said: \"The universe of\" Squid Game \"has just begun!\" In addition, with the popularity of \"Squid Game\", Netflix has also launched a series of peripheral products of the series, such as The sportswear worn by the contestants in \"Squid Game\".</p><p>In December, Netflix released a series of new sequels: The Witcher, You, Emily in Paris, Cobra Kai, and Maid.</p><p>In addition, as one of the most successful foreign language TV series in Netflix's history, the Spanish TV series \"Banknote House\" ended perfectly in the fourth quarter. The TV series has gained 6.7 billion hours of broadcast time since the first season was broadcast. At the same time, Netflix is interested in expanding the universe of \"House of Banknotes\" and will launch the Korean version of \"House of Banknotes\" later this year.</p><p>In 2022, Netflix will continue to work hard on original drama series and launch a series of new original drama series. In addition, sequels to popular IP dramas such as \"Stranger Things\" and \"Bridgerton\" will also be launched this year.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a6d76dca983c7803be3c4b382f8a194c\" tg-width=\"608\" tg-height=\"793\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p><b>Investment bankers who \"see the wind and make the rudder\"</b></p><p>Before Netflix's financial report was released, nearly 40 institutions gave Netflix an \"overweight\" rating.</p><p>After Netflix announced its financial report, KeyBanc took the lead in lowering Netflix's rating from \"overweight\" to \"hold\". Before the January financial report was released, the agency had just reiterated its \"overweight\" rating on Netflix. Right now, analysts at the bank see few growth drivers for the stock.</p><p>In addition, Goldman Sachs analysts gave Netflix a \"neutral\" investment rating. Analysts at the bank believe that the stock has been underperforming in the past 18 months, and the market is still controversial about the company's growth rate under normal circumstances after the epidemic.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/41651b5eb31afb1cbb7f7b4ad9a4c737\" tg-width=\"514\" tg-height=\"386\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p>Institutional ratings and target prices on Netflix in the past three months</p><p>According to relevant statistics, in the past three months, analysts have released target prices for Netflix in the next year, with an average of US $535.83, a highest value of US $800, and a lowest value of US $342.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/82bf43c7d2250b760d4b4e27041c6ef5\" tg-width=\"554\" tg-height=\"373\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p>Target Price Range</p><p><b>sum up</b></p><p>Netflix's management used \"good business conditions, high user retention rate, decreased user churn rate, and increased ratings\" to evaluate this performance. However, judging from various data, Netflix is facing increasingly fierce competition in the streaming media market. It is an indisputable fact. As the COVID-19 pandemic subsides and people's lives return to normal, the range within which Netflix's user growth rate will eventually \"normalize\" is the most important point for all investors, and it is also an important factor in determining its stock price trend.</p><p>In addition, in the fourth quarter, Netflix did not repurchase operations. According to the financial report, Netflix used part of the cash to acquire Roald Dahl Story Company. As for Netflix's official announcement of its entry into the game industry last year, whether it can bring new growth to Netflix in the new year is another key topic of market concern.</p><p></body></html></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> source：<a href=\"https://www.zhitongcaijing.com/content/detail/646079.html\">智通财经网</a></p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8fa6212aa97fcee15e91e74f631de4bf","relate_stocks":{"NFLX":"奈飞"},"source_url":"https://www.zhitongcaijing.com/content/detail/646079.html","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/6ca2dcdccfa2217fb20a0351f4efe814","article_id":"1166623001","content_text":"作者： 陈诗烨美东时间1月20日美股盘后，奈飞公布了2021年第四季度财报。财报显示，该公司Q4营收77.09亿美元，市场预期77.08亿美元，上年同期为66.44亿美元，同比增长16%;净利润为6.07亿美元，市场预期3.74亿美元，上年同期为5.42亿美元，同比增长12%;摊薄后每股收益1.33美元，市场预期0.82美元，上年同期1.19美元。此外，该公司2021年全年营收达到约297亿，全年净利润为51亿。全年摊薄后每股收益为11.24美元，超过市场预期值10.7美元。乍看之下，奈飞去年的业绩表现可谓相当亮眼，多项指标都超过市场的预期。然而，在财报公布后，奈飞的盘后股价一路狂泻，暴跌20%。事实上，在近期，奈飞股价都一路承压，特别是进入到2022年以来，该公司股价已下跌超过15%以上。再往上追溯，在2021年，奈飞通过推出《鱿鱼游戏》等一系列热门的影视剧成功收获了一大批“粉丝”，业绩也因此受益得到了一定的提振，股价全年上涨了11%。但考虑到标普500指数在21年全年涨幅达到28%，且以科技股为主的纳斯达克综合指数全年涨幅也达到23%的背景下，奈飞的股票在2021年里的表现并不“及格”。奈飞股价涨幅不及标普500奈飞股价涨幅不及纳指公司股价下跌的背后，有着各式各样的原因，但对奈飞来说，影响其股价的最主要原因就是订阅用户量。订阅数之殇奈飞在第四季度中，全球流媒体付费订阅用户人数净增828万，市场预期为813万。到2021年末时，奈飞在全球拥有的流媒体付费用户总数达2.2184亿。展望2022年第一季度，奈飞预计流媒体付费用户将增加250万，该数值低于去年同期的400万，且远远低于市场预期的增加626万。在四季度中，虽然奈飞订阅数的净增量打破市场预期的813万，但要知道，在第三季度的财报中，管理层曾乐观预计公司在第四季度的新增用户将达到850万。智通财经APP注意到，订阅增速的下降还反映在用户数增长年率中，在2020年第四季度时，奈飞的订阅用户数增长率达到惊人的21.9%，然而进入到2021年后，增长率已经较早时的两位数下降到个位数。而在管理层给出的第一季度最新指引中，其用户数增长年率仅为8%，较去年同期下降了5.6个百分点。数据来源：奈飞财报曾有观点认为，随着新冠疫情的慢慢退却，人们对于居家娱乐的需求会出现下降，这很可能会对奈飞构成影响。在Q3的财报业绩会议中，奈飞的高管们就曾表示，该公司的订阅者数量已经度过了新冠疫情时的“波动期”，正慢慢恢复到“正常”水平。因此，或许正是新冠疫情将奈飞推到本不属于自己的高度，而随着管理层开始意识到高增长不可持续后，便给出了相对保守的指引。营运利润率恐跌破“3%增长线”市场此前看好奈飞股价的一个重要因素是：尽管考虑到季间会出现波动，但其总体的盈利能力指标会随着时间的推移而不断扩大。第四季度中，奈飞的营运利润率为8%，高于公司的预测指引6.5%，但相较前年同期的14%，仍有不少的差距。2021全年的营运利润率依然达到20.9%，位于公司此前的预期区间--20%以上。虽然在第四季度中，公司整体营收仍保持较快的速度增长，但营运收入仅有6.32亿，较2020年同期下降34%，较第三季度下降了64%。数据来源：奈飞财报应该说，公司管理层早已为此次较低营运利润率打过预防针，在前一次会议上，管理层将营运利润率的降低，归咎于奈飞将积压制作的节目内容放在第四季度中播出，这导致节目内容资产为公司带来了大笔的摊销。而在此次的财报上，奈飞也再次提及了上述的原因。在四季度，内容资产的摊销达到37.4亿美元，是近两年内摊销数额最大的一个季度。数据来源：奈飞财报此外，奈飞预测今年一季度公司的营运收入为17.65亿美元，营运利润率为22.3%。该指引相较去年一季度的表现来说，存在小幅度的下降。同时，公司预计2022年的营运利润率无法实现此前高喊的每年增长3%（即今年营运利润率本应该达22%，但公司给出的指引区间为19-20%）。管理层对于预期利润率的下降，将原因更多地归咎在汇率变动方面，而不是由于收入水平的降低。奈飞营运利润率增长将跌破“3%增长线”？激烈的流媒体竞争单位：百万数据来源：各大公司财报注：此为每季末的订阅用户数，Discovery+在2021年后才发行，因此之前的数据未进入统计过去，对于市场竞争，奈飞通常会表示，公司面临着来自不同领域的竞争对手，但其他公司的流媒体服务并不会对其构成太大威胁。奈飞一直坚持认为，流媒体的观看时长仍未达到该有的水平。但在本季奈飞最新的致股东信中，有一句话却显得特别碍眼：“虽然竞争加剧可能会影响我们的利润率增长...”，有分析认为，这是奈飞承认竞争激烈的有力证明：流媒体竞争正在影响其用户增长。在订阅用户方面，Disney+可谓是异军突起，虽然最新数据要到2月份的财报业绩公布时才会出炉，但从以往的信息来看，截至2021年的第三季度，Disney+已拥有超过 1.18 亿的全球付费用户。该流媒体服务在第三季度中增加了 210 万订阅用户，且在过去 12 个月内增加了 4440 万订阅用户。而对于2024年的用户数量预期，迪士尼也从起初的6000 万至 9000 万区间，提升至2.3 亿至 2.6 亿。除了Disney+外，其他同行的势头也不容小觑。在去年5月，AT&T就已同意将旗下华纳媒体（WarnerMedia）与媒体巨头Discovery Inc.合并，以加强在流媒体市场上的竞争力。有消息指新班底除了有意将Discovery易名为Warner Bros. Discovery 外，更有意将HBO Max 及Discovery+ 合并为同一平台。一方面，HBO MAX本身就有一定的用户基础。据了解，到2021年底，HBO和HBO Max的订阅用户已达到了约7380万，一举跻身于竞争激烈的流媒体市场前列。而在去年10月，AT&T预测用户总数到年底时将提高到7300万，因此此次实际数目超过了该公司此前的预测，使其跻身于竞争激烈的流媒体市场前列。而在推出包括The Sex Lives of College Girls和Sex and The City在内的热门剧集续集后，HBO Max在第四季度的订阅用户数量得到了明显提升。另一方面，受益于Discovery+在2021年的成功推出后，该公司流媒体服务的订阅用户仅用三个季度就猛增至2000万。在合并后，相信在协同作用的推动下，将为公司带来更多的利益以及更多的订阅量。虽然奈飞在订阅增速上可能并不如部分流媒体同行那么出众，但其自身庞大的用户基数，使其目前勉强坐稳流媒体行业的头把交椅。智通财经APP曾报道，在较为出色的第三季度中，受到热播剧集《鱿鱼游戏》的推动，新增用户数一举达到438万，并突破了此前的预期。数据来源：Nielsen research在激烈的市场中，奈飞不仅要面对来自流媒体同行的竞争，也要面对来自有线电视、广播电视和其他领域（如：电子游戏）的竞争。事实上，根据调查，在11月，感恩节假期以及休息时间的增多激励消费者每周多花5%的时间观看电视节目。值得注意的是，离校时间增多让学生有机会把花时间放在电子游戏(包括在“其他”类别中)何观看Disney+上的内容。虽然，广播电视的市场份额较10份月有所下降，这主要是因为一般的电视剧和情景喜剧的收视率下降，但体育节目收视率依然强劲，即使没有世界大赛，收视率也上升了7%。而在流媒体中，Disney+受益于该月有近20%的观影时间增长，市场份额较10月份上涨1%。推动这一增长的主要因素有两个:平台主要用户(小孩、儿童)的观影时间增多，以及Disney+ Day在该月发行了新的电影《尚气》和《丛林奇航》。此外，亚马逊的Prime Video的总市场份额仍维持在2%，但该平台上的总观影时间依然比10月份时增加了8%。而奈飞10月和11月的整体市场份额基本稳定在7%，相较9月时的6%有了1%的提升。在流体行业中，奈飞面临的最大挑战是来自于Youtube，后者在整体的市场份额上（6%）可谓紧咬着奈飞不放。当然HULU也是一位不容小觑的对手，后者高性价比正越来越受到观众的青睐。定价方面，奈飞一路都处于行业内较高的位置。而进入到2022年，奈飞宣布提高其在美国和加拿大地区的订阅价格。其中，美国的基础账户费用从每月8.99美元涨至9.99美元，标准账户费用从每月13.99美元涨至15.49美元，高级账户费用从每月17.99美元涨至19.99美元。加拿大的标准账户费用从14.99加元涨至16.49加元，高级帐户费用上涨2加元至20.99加元，基础账户费用保持不变，为9.99加元。而如果竞争真的开始侵蚀订阅用户的部分增长，那么价格上涨可能会增加客户流失的风险。原创影集这张“王牌”还在手在2021年里，奈飞推出了一系列精彩的节目内容。根据谷歌热门搜索榜单的统计，搜索次数排名前10的电视剧集中，有6部属于奈飞的原创剧集。其中，排名第一的就是广为人知的《鱿鱼游戏》，而奈飞的另一部剧集《布里奇顿》则名列第二。来源：谷歌热门影集《鱿鱼游戏》在推出后立刻火爆全球，该剧集是在第三季度末推出的，在第四季度的前四周，该剧集收获的观看时间达到16.5亿小时，创下奈飞有史以来最高的播放量。同时，管理层证实《鱿鱼游戏》将会推出第二季。奈飞联合首席执行官Ted Sarandos对此表示:“《鱿鱼游戏》宇宙才刚刚开启!”此外，随着《鱿鱼游戏》的热播，奈飞还推出了一系列该剧集的周边产品，如《鱿鱼游戏》中参赛者们身穿的运动服。在12月时，奈飞发布了一系列新的续作影集：《The Witcher》、《You》、《Emily in Paris》、《Cobra Kai》以及《Maid》。另外，作为奈飞史上最成功的外语电视剧之一--西班牙电视剧《纸钞屋》，在第四季度中完美落幕，该电视剧自第一季播出以来共收获67亿小时的播放时间。同时，奈飞正有意扩张《纸钞屋》宇宙，将在今年晚些时候推出韩国版的《纸钞屋》。而在2022年度中，奈飞将继续在原创剧集上下功夫，并推出一系列新的原创剧集系列。此外，“怪奇物语”和“布里奇顿”等热门IP剧集的续作也将在本年度内推出。“见风使舵”的投行们在奈飞财报公布前，有将近40家机构给予奈飞“增持”评级。而在奈飞公布财报后，KeyBanc就率先将奈飞评级由“增持”下调至“持有”。而在一月份财报公布前，该机构才刚刚重申其对奈飞的“增持”评级。目前，该行分析师认为，该股几乎没有什么增长的驱动因素。此外，高盛分析师给予奈飞“中性”的投资评级，该行分析师认为，该股在过去18个月里一直表现欠佳，市场对该公司在疫情后正常情况下的增长率会如何仍有争议。近三个月来机构关于奈飞的评级与目标价据相关统计，在过去3个月内，分析师发布对奈飞未来一年的目标价中，平均值为535.83美元，最高值为800美元，最低值342美元。目标价区间总结奈飞管理层用“业务状况良好，用户留存率很高，用户流失率下降，收视率上升”来评价本次的业绩，但从各类数据来看，奈飞在流媒体市场面临越发激烈的竞争是不争的事实。而随着新冠疫情的消退，人们生活回归正常，奈飞用户增速最终“正常化”在什么区间内，是所有投资者最为侧重的一个点，也是决定其股价走势的重要因素。另外，在四季度中，奈飞并没有回购的操作。根据财报，奈飞将部分现金用作收购Roald Dahl故事公司。而对于奈飞去年正式宣布进军游戏行业，能否在新的一年中为奈飞带来新的增长亦是市场关注的又一重点话题。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"NFLX":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2286,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9007047841,"gmtCreate":1642726430502,"gmtModify":1676533740389,"author":{"id":"3571264504108019","authorId":"3571264504108019","name":"ChrisChen123","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3571264504108019","idStr":"3571264504108019"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Ok","listText":"Ok","text":"Ok","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9007047841","repostId":"1104054855","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2366,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0}],"lives":[]}