TheRealDon44 personal page - To The Moon

TheRealDon44

TheRealDon44

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2021-03-25

Haiz keep going down and down

Tesla stock is off its high, but it's not 'on sale': trader

2021-04-04

Every week there will be article about "crash is coming?"

How Likely Is a Stock Market Crash?

2021-03-21

Then keep the interest rate low

Powell says Fed will keep supporting economy ‘for as long as it takes’

2021-03-17

$Palantir Technologies Inc.(PLTR)$haiz

2021-04-20

Wow

IPO Preview: UiPath Inc, KnowBe4, Zymergen, Latham Holdings Highlight Busy Week Of Offerings

2021-04-14

Take my money

Sorry, the original content has been removed

2021-05-02

$Palantir Technologies Inc.(PLTR)$ Long term gain but short term big pain

2021-04-10

Ok

Sorry, the original content has been removed

2021-03-22

Cheers

Headed For A Collapsing Debt Bubble

2021-03-20

SPAC is bad

Sorry, the original content has been removed

Go to Tiger App to see more news

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May the market favor the brave.","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/113358869","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2606,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":137233971,"gmtCreate":1622348480793,"gmtModify":1704183328683,"author":{"id":"3571383857875160","authorId":"3571383857875160","name":"TheRealDon44","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d75a627ee67d439fe61fdbbdfb7f4da0","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3571383857875160","idStr":"3571383857875160"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Hello weekend&nbsp;","listText":"Hello weekend&nbsp;","text":"Hello 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green","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/132814050","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1383,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":133579658,"gmtCreate":1621776055974,"gmtModify":1704362302638,"author":{"id":"3571383857875160","authorId":"3571383857875160","name":"TheRealDon44","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d75a627ee67d439fe61fdbbdfb7f4da0","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3571383857875160","idStr":"3571383857875160"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Good evening&nbsp;","listText":"Good evening&nbsp;","text":"Good evening","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/133579658","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":997,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":139792052,"gmtCreate":1621655271076,"gmtModify":1704361127992,"author":{"id":"3571383857875160","authorId":"3571383857875160","name":"TheRealDon44","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d75a627ee67d439fe61fdbbdfb7f4da0","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3571383857875160","idStr":"3571383857875160"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Will tech stocks ever recover?&nbsp;","listText":"Will tech stocks ever recover?&nbsp;","text":"Will tech stocks ever recover?","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/139792052","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":810,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":130231398,"gmtCreate":1621551764114,"gmtModify":1704359346689,"author":{"id":"3571383857875160","authorId":"3571383857875160","name":"TheRealDon44","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d75a627ee67d439fe61fdbbdfb7f4da0","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3571383857875160","idStr":"3571383857875160"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Good day&nbsp;","listText":"Good day&nbsp;","text":"Good day","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/130231398","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1051,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":130919685,"gmtCreate":1621502551647,"gmtModify":1704358677426,"author":{"id":"3571383857875160","authorId":"3571383857875160","name":"TheRealDon44","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d75a627ee67d439fe61fdbbdfb7f4da0","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3571383857875160","idStr":"3571383857875160"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Please help to like and comment here TIA","listText":"Please help to like and comment here TIA","text":"Please help to like and comment here TIA","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/130919685","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":790,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":197941462,"gmtCreate":1621423306356,"gmtModify":1704357372840,"author":{"id":"3571383857875160","authorId":"3571383857875160","name":"TheRealDon44","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d75a627ee67d439fe61fdbbdfb7f4da0","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3571383857875160","idStr":"3571383857875160"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Another red day fam","listText":"Another red day fam","text":"Another red day fam","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/197941462","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":758,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":195230091,"gmtCreate":1621296219413,"gmtModify":1704355232177,"author":{"id":"3571383857875160","authorId":"3571383857875160","name":"TheRealDon44","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d75a627ee67d439fe61fdbbdfb7f4da0","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3571383857875160","idStr":"3571383857875160"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/PLTR\">$Palantir Technologies Inc.(PLTR)$</a>&nbsp;Still some distance away","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/PLTR\">$Palantir Technologies Inc.(PLTR)$</a>&nbsp;Still some distance away","text":"$Palantir Technologies Inc.(PLTR)$ Still some distance away","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ec2b4c525de36fb0c057e19af8c57424","width":"1080","height":"1920"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/195230091","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1141,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":191188454,"gmtCreate":1620864339278,"gmtModify":1704349416574,"author":{"id":"3571383857875160","authorId":"3571383857875160","name":"TheRealDon44","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d75a627ee67d439fe61fdbbdfb7f4da0","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3571383857875160","idStr":"3571383857875160"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"PLTR what's going on?&nbsp;","listText":"PLTR what's going on?&nbsp;","text":"PLTR what's going on?","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/191188454","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1040,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0}],"hots":[{"id":358035606,"gmtCreate":1616639110605,"gmtModify":1704796767111,"author":{"id":"3571383857875160","authorId":"3571383857875160","name":"TheRealDon44","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d75a627ee67d439fe61fdbbdfb7f4da0","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3571383857875160","authorIdStr":"3571383857875160"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Haiz keep going down and down","listText":"Haiz keep going down and down","text":"Haiz keep going down and down","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":4,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/358035606","repostId":"1159581958","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1159581958","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1616638601,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1159581958?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2021-03-25 10:16","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Tesla stock is off its high, but it's not 'on sale': trader","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1159581958","media":"yahoo","summary":"Tesla stock is rallying off its lows after suffering a 40% draw-down — its worst decline since the COVID-induced sell-off one year ago pulled it down more than 60%. But one trader is saying it's too early for short-term investors to wade back in.\"[It] was at that point that we were warning investors: Maybe you want to take some profits into this strength if you were buying out at 466 area, or even earlier in the big move that we saw in 2020. It then started to trigger some more sell signals as t","content":"<p>Tesla stock is rallying off its lows after suffering a 40% draw-down — its worst decline since the COVID-induced sell-off one year ago pulled it down more than 60%. But one trader is saying it's too early for short-term investors to wade back in.</p>\n<p>\"[Tesla] is a fan favorite out there for many investors... [A] lot of people love the company, love the story here with Tesla, and may be tempted to say, 'Hey, Tesla has come way off of those highs. Maybe I should buy the stock on sale here.' But we would caution against that,\" Alissa Coram, multimedia content editor at Investor’s Business Daily, tells Yahoo Finance Live.</p>\n<p>Coram looks to market technicals for cues, pointing to the prior breakout from a months-long consolidating pennant formation. \"[If] you rewind the clock to last November, that strength out of a little consolidation there, over the 466 level —we would have considered that definitely an actual entry for the stock. [It] went on a huge move after that,\" says Coram.</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/68144605fb501e35c68d6a3d609dc457\" tg-width=\"705\" tg-height=\"383\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">Tesla stock is pushing up against its 21-day exponential moving average after slicing through other support, following a period of institutional distribution. Off its lows, Tesla could be at a major inflection point.</p>\n<p>After the strong move, Investor's Business Daily warned traders who had bought the prior breakout that it might be time to book some profits in early January. The expanding volatility (or daily trading range) of Tesla stock tipped off astute watchers of Tesla's stock price action that there might be trouble on the horizon.</p>\n<p>Coram notes the climactic action in early January as the stock gapped up, opening above the prior day's high, three days consecutively. She also points out how the stock was getting extended from its various moving averages.</p>\n<p>\"[It] was at that point that we were warning investors: Maybe you want to take some profits into this strength if you were buying out at 466 area, or even earlier in the big move that we saw in 2020. It then started to trigger some more sell signals as the technicals broke down, first breaking below that 21-day moving average. That would have been another spot to take profits,\" she says.</p>\n<p>Coram highlights the importance of the 50-day moving average, which is also the 10-week moving average — an important institutional reference point. \"When we see a big break of the 50-day line, or the 10-week line on a weekly chart, our research shows that it's at that point that stocks that have made big moves really need to take a break, at the very least. We've seen huge volume declines, and the stock is now hitting some resistance at that 21-day moving average, potentially living below that level... [W]e think Tesla needs some time here, so avoid that temptation of thinking the stock is on sale here,\" she says.</p>\n<p>For longer-term investors still sitting on large, multiyear gains, Coram says they can treat Tesla stock a little differently and allow for more breathing room. \"Tesla could surge to new highs and keep climbing, but it also could be dead money for a while,\" shetweets. \"We'll have to see!\"</p>","source":"lsy1584348713084","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Tesla stock is off its high, but it's not 'on sale': trader</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nTesla stock is off its high, but it's not 'on sale': trader\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-03-25 10:16 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://finance.yahoo.com/news/tesla-stock-is-off-its-high-but-its-not-on-sale-trader-104945788.html><strong>yahoo</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>Tesla stock is rallying off its lows after suffering a 40% draw-down — its worst decline since the COVID-induced sell-off one year ago pulled it down more than 60%. But one trader is saying it's too ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://finance.yahoo.com/news/tesla-stock-is-off-its-high-but-its-not-on-sale-trader-104945788.html\">Source Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/894b094eb32ac5072648613b2fa7f36e","relate_stocks":{"TSLA":"特斯拉"},"source_url":"https://finance.yahoo.com/news/tesla-stock-is-off-its-high-but-its-not-on-sale-trader-104945788.html","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1159581958","content_text":"Tesla stock is rallying off its lows after suffering a 40% draw-down — its worst decline since the COVID-induced sell-off one year ago pulled it down more than 60%. But one trader is saying it's too early for short-term investors to wade back in.\n\"[Tesla] is a fan favorite out there for many investors... [A] lot of people love the company, love the story here with Tesla, and may be tempted to say, 'Hey, Tesla has come way off of those highs. Maybe I should buy the stock on sale here.' But we would caution against that,\" Alissa Coram, multimedia content editor at Investor’s Business Daily, tells Yahoo Finance Live.\nCoram looks to market technicals for cues, pointing to the prior breakout from a months-long consolidating pennant formation. \"[If] you rewind the clock to last November, that strength out of a little consolidation there, over the 466 level —we would have considered that definitely an actual entry for the stock. [It] went on a huge move after that,\" says Coram.\nTesla stock is pushing up against its 21-day exponential moving average after slicing through other support, following a period of institutional distribution. Off its lows, Tesla could be at a major inflection point.\nAfter the strong move, Investor's Business Daily warned traders who had bought the prior breakout that it might be time to book some profits in early January. The expanding volatility (or daily trading range) of Tesla stock tipped off astute watchers of Tesla's stock price action that there might be trouble on the horizon.\nCoram notes the climactic action in early January as the stock gapped up, opening above the prior day's high, three days consecutively. She also points out how the stock was getting extended from its various moving averages.\n\"[It] was at that point that we were warning investors: Maybe you want to take some profits into this strength if you were buying out at 466 area, or even earlier in the big move that we saw in 2020. It then started to trigger some more sell signals as the technicals broke down, first breaking below that 21-day moving average. That would have been another spot to take profits,\" she says.\nCoram highlights the importance of the 50-day moving average, which is also the 10-week moving average — an important institutional reference point. \"When we see a big break of the 50-day line, or the 10-week line on a weekly chart, our research shows that it's at that point that stocks that have made big moves really need to take a break, at the very least. We've seen huge volume declines, and the stock is now hitting some resistance at that 21-day moving average, potentially living below that level... [W]e think Tesla needs some time here, so avoid that temptation of thinking the stock is on sale here,\" she says.\nFor longer-term investors still sitting on large, multiyear gains, Coram says they can treat Tesla stock a little differently and allow for more breathing room. \"Tesla could surge to new highs and keep climbing, but it also could be dead money for a while,\" shetweets. \"We'll have to see!\"","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"TSLA":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":906,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":349956001,"gmtCreate":1617527104003,"gmtModify":1704700244478,"author":{"id":"3571383857875160","authorId":"3571383857875160","name":"TheRealDon44","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d75a627ee67d439fe61fdbbdfb7f4da0","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3571383857875160","authorIdStr":"3571383857875160"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Every week there will be article about \"crash is coming?\"&nbsp;","listText":"Every week there will be article about \"crash is coming?\"&nbsp;","text":"Every week there will be article about \"crash is coming?\"","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":4,"commentSize":2,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/349956001","repostId":"1191998262","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1191998262","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1617366158,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1191998262?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2021-04-02 20:22","market":"us","language":"en","title":"How Likely Is a Stock Market Crash?","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1191998262","media":"Motley Fool","summary":"You may not like the answer.\n\nFor the past year, investors have enjoyed one of the greatest bounce-b","content":"<blockquote>\n You may not like the answer.\n</blockquote>\n<p>For the past year, investors have enjoyed one of the greatest bounce-back rallies of all time. After the benchmark<b>S&amp;P 500</b>(SNPINDEX:^GSPC)lost a third of its value in mere weeks due to unprecedented uncertainties surrounding the coronavirus pandemic, it bounced back to gain in the neighborhood of 75% off its lows. You could rightly say that patience has paid off.</p>\n<p>But there's another reality that investors -- especially long-term investors -- are keenly aware of: the propensity of the stock market to crash or correct. Things might look great now, but the next big nosedive is always waiting in the wings.</p>\n<p>It begs the question: How likely is astock market crash? Let's take a closer look.</p>\n<p><b>Double-digit declines occur every 1.87 years, on average</b></p>\n<p>To begin with the basics, stock market corrections (i.e., declines of at least 10%) are quite common in the S&amp;P 500. According to data from market analytics firm Yardeni Research, there have been 38 corrections in the S&amp;P 500 since the beginning of 1950. This works out to an average double-digit decline in the benchmark indexevery 1.87 years. Since it's now been more than a year since the market hit its bear-market bottom, the averages are certainly not in investors' favor.</p>\n<p>However, averages are nothing more than that... averages. The market doesn't adhere to averages, even if some folks base their investments off of what's happened historically.</p>\n<p>We could enter a period similar to 1991 through 1996 where there were zero corrections. Or we could continue the theme since the beginning of 2010, where corrections occur, on average, every 19 months.</p>\n<p><b>Corrections have been an historical given within three years of a bear market bottom</b></p>\n<p>Another interesting piece of evidence to examine is the frequency by which the S&amp;P 500 corrects after hitting a bear-market bottom.</p>\n<p>Since the beginning of 1960 (an arbitrary year I chose for the sake of simplicity), the widely followed index has navigated its way through nine bear markets, including the coronavirus crash. In rebounding from each of the previous eight bear market lows, there was at least one double-digit percentage decline within three years100% of the time. In aggregate, 13 corrections have occurred within three years following the last eight bear market bottoms (i.e., either one or two following each bottom).</p>\n<p>Put another way, rebounding from a bear-market bottom is rarely a straight-line move higher. Yet up, up, and away has pretty much been the theme for investors since March 23, 2020. History would suggest that there's a very good chance of a move lower in equities within the next two years.</p>\n<p><b>Crashes frequently occur when this valuation metric is hit</b></p>\n<p>But the most damning bit of evidence might just be the S&amp;P 500's Shiller price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio. This is a valuation metric that examines the average inflation-adjusted earnings from the previous 10 years. You might also know it as the cyclically adjusted P/E ratio, or CAPE.</p>\n<p>As of the close of business on March 30, the S&amp;P 500's Shiller P/E ratio hit 35.61. That's well over double its 150-year average of 16.8. Using continuous bull market moves as a parameter, it's the second-highest reading in its history.</p>\n<p>To some extent, itmakes sensethat equity valuations should be higher now than they've been historically. That's because interest rates are near an all-time low and access to the internet has effectively broken down barriers between Wall Street and Main Street that may have, in the past, kept P/E multiples at bay.</p>\n<p>However, previous instances of the S&amp;P 500's Shiller P/E ratio crossing above and sustaining the 30 levelhaven't ended well. In the prior four instances where the Shiller P/E surpassed and held above 30, the benchmark index tumbled anywhere from 20% to as much as 89%. Although an 89% plunge, which was experienced during the Great Depression, is very unlikely these days, a big drop has historically been in the cards when valuations get extended, as they are now.</p>\n<p><b>Keep that cash handy in the event that opportunity knocks</b></p>\n<p>To circle back to the original question at hand, the data is pretty clear that the likelihood of a stock market crash or correction has grown considerably. It's impossible to precisely predict when a crash might occur, how long the decline will last, or how steep the drop could be. But the data strongly suggests that downside is in the offing.</p>\n<p>While this might be a disappointing revelation to some investors, it shouldn't be. Crashes and corrections are a normal part of the investing cycle. More importantly, theyprovide an opportunityfor investors to buy into great companies at a discount. Just think about all the great companies you're probably kicking yourself over for not buying last March.</p>\n<p>The reason to be excited about crashes and corrections is also found in the data. You see, of those 38 previous corrections in the S&amp;P 500 since the beginning of 1950, each and every one has eventually been put into the rearview mirror by a bull market rally. Plus,at no point over the past centuryhave rolling 20-year total returns (including dividends) for the S&amp;P 500 been negative.</p>\n<p>If you need further encouragement to buy during a correction, keep in mind that 24 of the 38 double-digit declines in the S&amp;P 500 havefound their bottom in 104 or fewer calendar days(3.5 months or less). Crashes and corrections may be steep at times but tend to resolve quickly. That's your cue to have cash at the ready in the event that opportunity knocks.</p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>How Likely Is a Stock Market Crash?</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nHow Likely Is a Stock Market Crash?\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-04-02 20:22 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://www.fool.com/investing/2021/04/02/how-likely-is-a-stock-market-crash/><strong>Motley Fool</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>You may not like the answer.\n\nFor the past year, investors have enjoyed one of the greatest bounce-back rallies of all time. After the benchmarkS&P 500(SNPINDEX:^GSPC)lost a third of its value in mere...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://www.fool.com/investing/2021/04/02/how-likely-is-a-stock-market-crash/\">Source Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{".SPX":"S&P 500 Index",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite",".DJI":"道琼斯","SPY":"标普500ETF"},"source_url":"https://www.fool.com/investing/2021/04/02/how-likely-is-a-stock-market-crash/","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1191998262","content_text":"You may not like the answer.\n\nFor the past year, investors have enjoyed one of the greatest bounce-back rallies of all time. After the benchmarkS&P 500(SNPINDEX:^GSPC)lost a third of its value in mere weeks due to unprecedented uncertainties surrounding the coronavirus pandemic, it bounced back to gain in the neighborhood of 75% off its lows. You could rightly say that patience has paid off.\nBut there's another reality that investors -- especially long-term investors -- are keenly aware of: the propensity of the stock market to crash or correct. Things might look great now, but the next big nosedive is always waiting in the wings.\nIt begs the question: How likely is astock market crash? Let's take a closer look.\nDouble-digit declines occur every 1.87 years, on average\nTo begin with the basics, stock market corrections (i.e., declines of at least 10%) are quite common in the S&P 500. According to data from market analytics firm Yardeni Research, there have been 38 corrections in the S&P 500 since the beginning of 1950. This works out to an average double-digit decline in the benchmark indexevery 1.87 years. Since it's now been more than a year since the market hit its bear-market bottom, the averages are certainly not in investors' favor.\nHowever, averages are nothing more than that... averages. The market doesn't adhere to averages, even if some folks base their investments off of what's happened historically.\nWe could enter a period similar to 1991 through 1996 where there were zero corrections. Or we could continue the theme since the beginning of 2010, where corrections occur, on average, every 19 months.\nCorrections have been an historical given within three years of a bear market bottom\nAnother interesting piece of evidence to examine is the frequency by which the S&P 500 corrects after hitting a bear-market bottom.\nSince the beginning of 1960 (an arbitrary year I chose for the sake of simplicity), the widely followed index has navigated its way through nine bear markets, including the coronavirus crash. In rebounding from each of the previous eight bear market lows, there was at least one double-digit percentage decline within three years100% of the time. In aggregate, 13 corrections have occurred within three years following the last eight bear market bottoms (i.e., either one or two following each bottom).\nPut another way, rebounding from a bear-market bottom is rarely a straight-line move higher. Yet up, up, and away has pretty much been the theme for investors since March 23, 2020. History would suggest that there's a very good chance of a move lower in equities within the next two years.\nCrashes frequently occur when this valuation metric is hit\nBut the most damning bit of evidence might just be the S&P 500's Shiller price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio. This is a valuation metric that examines the average inflation-adjusted earnings from the previous 10 years. You might also know it as the cyclically adjusted P/E ratio, or CAPE.\nAs of the close of business on March 30, the S&P 500's Shiller P/E ratio hit 35.61. That's well over double its 150-year average of 16.8. Using continuous bull market moves as a parameter, it's the second-highest reading in its history.\nTo some extent, itmakes sensethat equity valuations should be higher now than they've been historically. That's because interest rates are near an all-time low and access to the internet has effectively broken down barriers between Wall Street and Main Street that may have, in the past, kept P/E multiples at bay.\nHowever, previous instances of the S&P 500's Shiller P/E ratio crossing above and sustaining the 30 levelhaven't ended well. In the prior four instances where the Shiller P/E surpassed and held above 30, the benchmark index tumbled anywhere from 20% to as much as 89%. Although an 89% plunge, which was experienced during the Great Depression, is very unlikely these days, a big drop has historically been in the cards when valuations get extended, as they are now.\nKeep that cash handy in the event that opportunity knocks\nTo circle back to the original question at hand, the data is pretty clear that the likelihood of a stock market crash or correction has grown considerably. It's impossible to precisely predict when a crash might occur, how long the decline will last, or how steep the drop could be. But the data strongly suggests that downside is in the offing.\nWhile this might be a disappointing revelation to some investors, it shouldn't be. Crashes and corrections are a normal part of the investing cycle. More importantly, theyprovide an opportunityfor investors to buy into great companies at a discount. Just think about all the great companies you're probably kicking yourself over for not buying last March.\nThe reason to be excited about crashes and corrections is also found in the data. You see, of those 38 previous corrections in the S&P 500 since the beginning of 1950, each and every one has eventually been put into the rearview mirror by a bull market rally. Plus,at no point over the past centuryhave rolling 20-year total returns (including dividends) for the S&P 500 been negative.\nIf you need further encouragement to buy during a correction, keep in mind that 24 of the 38 double-digit declines in the S&P 500 havefound their bottom in 104 or fewer calendar days(3.5 months or less). Crashes and corrections may be steep at times but tend to resolve quickly. That's your cue to have cash at the ready in the event that opportunity knocks.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"SPY":0.9,".SPX":0.9,".IXIC":0.9,".DJI":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":903,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":350716307,"gmtCreate":1616289087209,"gmtModify":1704792612073,"author":{"id":"3571383857875160","authorId":"3571383857875160","name":"TheRealDon44","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d75a627ee67d439fe61fdbbdfb7f4da0","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3571383857875160","authorIdStr":"3571383857875160"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Then keep the interest rate low","listText":"Then keep the interest rate low","text":"Then keep the interest rate low","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":6,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/350716307","repostId":"1117450855","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1117450855","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1616166767,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1117450855?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2021-03-19 23:12","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Powell says Fed will keep supporting economy ‘for as long as it takes’","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1117450855","media":"marketwatch","summary":"Outlook is brightening, but recovery ‘far from complete,’ Fed chairman says in WSJ op-ed.Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell on Friday said that while the U.S. economic outlook is “brightening,” the recovery is “far from complete.”In an op-ed published in the Wall Street Journal,Powell recounted the moment last February when he realized that the coronavirus pandemic would sweep across the country.“The danger to the U.S. economy was grave. The challenge was to limit the severity and duration o","content":"<blockquote>\n <b>Outlook is brightening, but recovery ‘far from complete,’ Fed chairman says in WSJ op-ed.</b>\n</blockquote>\n<p>Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell on Friday said that while the U.S. economic outlook is “brightening,” the recovery is “far from complete.”</p>\n<p>In an op-ed published in the Wall Street Journal,Powell recounted the moment last February when he realized that the coronavirus pandemic would sweep across the country.</p>\n<p>“The danger to the U.S. economy was grave. The challenge was to limit the severity and duration of the fallout to avoid longer-run damage,” he said.</p>\n<p>Powell and his colleagues engineered a rapid response to the crisis, based on the lesson learned from slow recovery to the Great Recession of 2008-2009 that swift action might have been better.</p>\n<p>The central bank quickly slashed its policy interest rate to zero and launched an open-ended asset purchase program known as quantitative easing.</p>\n<p>With economists penciling in strong growth for 2021 and more Americans getting vaccinated every day, financial markets are wondering how long Fed support will last.</p>\n<p>In the op-ed, Powell said the situation “is much improved.”</p>\n<p>“But the recovery is far from complete, so at the Fed we will continue to provide the economy with the support that it needs for as long as it takes,” Powell said.</p>\n<p>“I truly believe that we will emerge from this crisis stronger and better, as we have done so often before,” he said.</p>\n<p>On Wednesday, the Fed recommitted to its easy money policy stance at its latest policy meeting despite a forecast for stronger economic growth and higher inflation this year.</p>\n<p>The Fed chairman did not mention the outlook for inflation in his Friday article . Many on Wall Street are worried that the economy will overheat before the Fed pulls back its easy policy stance.</p>\n<p>Yields on the 10-year Treasury noteTMUBMUSD10Y,1.734%have risen to 1.73% this week after starting the year below 1%.</p>\n<p>Stocks were trading lower on Friday, with the Dow Jones Industrial AverageDJIA,-0.71%down 187 points in mid-morning trading.</p>","source":"market_watch","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Powell says Fed will keep supporting economy ‘for as long as it takes’</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nPowell says Fed will keep supporting economy ‘for as long as it takes’\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-03-19 23:12 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://www.marketwatch.com/story/powell-says-fed-will-keep-supporting-economy-for-as-long-as-it-takes-11616165178?mod=home-page><strong>marketwatch</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>Outlook is brightening, but recovery ‘far from complete,’ Fed chairman says in WSJ op-ed.\n\nFederal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell on Friday said that while the U.S. economic outlook is “brightening,” ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://www.marketwatch.com/story/powell-says-fed-will-keep-supporting-economy-for-as-long-as-it-takes-11616165178?mod=home-page\">Source Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{},"source_url":"https://www.marketwatch.com/story/powell-says-fed-will-keep-supporting-economy-for-as-long-as-it-takes-11616165178?mod=home-page","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/599a65733b8245fcf7868668ef9ad712","article_id":"1117450855","content_text":"Outlook is brightening, but recovery ‘far from complete,’ Fed chairman says in WSJ op-ed.\n\nFederal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell on Friday said that while the U.S. economic outlook is “brightening,” the recovery is “far from complete.”\nIn an op-ed published in the Wall Street Journal,Powell recounted the moment last February when he realized that the coronavirus pandemic would sweep across the country.\n“The danger to the U.S. economy was grave. The challenge was to limit the severity and duration of the fallout to avoid longer-run damage,” he said.\nPowell and his colleagues engineered a rapid response to the crisis, based on the lesson learned from slow recovery to the Great Recession of 2008-2009 that swift action might have been better.\nThe central bank quickly slashed its policy interest rate to zero and launched an open-ended asset purchase program known as quantitative easing.\nWith economists penciling in strong growth for 2021 and more Americans getting vaccinated every day, financial markets are wondering how long Fed support will last.\nIn the op-ed, Powell said the situation “is much improved.”\n“But the recovery is far from complete, so at the Fed we will continue to provide the economy with the support that it needs for as long as it takes,” Powell said.\n“I truly believe that we will emerge from this crisis stronger and better, as we have done so often before,” he said.\nOn Wednesday, the Fed recommitted to its easy money policy stance at its latest policy meeting despite a forecast for stronger economic growth and higher inflation this year.\nThe Fed chairman did not mention the outlook for inflation in his Friday article . Many on Wall Street are worried that the economy will overheat before the Fed pulls back its easy policy stance.\nYields on the 10-year Treasury noteTMUBMUSD10Y,1.734%have risen to 1.73% this week after starting the year below 1%.\nStocks were trading lower on Friday, with the Dow Jones Industrial AverageDJIA,-0.71%down 187 points in mid-morning trading.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":861,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":324198612,"gmtCreate":1615971638436,"gmtModify":1704789093149,"author":{"id":"3571383857875160","authorId":"3571383857875160","name":"TheRealDon44","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d75a627ee67d439fe61fdbbdfb7f4da0","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3571383857875160","authorIdStr":"3571383857875160"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/PLTR\">$Palantir Technologies Inc.(PLTR)$</a>haiz","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/PLTR\">$Palantir Technologies Inc.(PLTR)$</a>haiz","text":"$Palantir Technologies Inc.(PLTR)$haiz","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f68c0f447c8a47fe4885a07885d45ed5","width":"1080","height":"1920"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":1,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/324198612","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":830,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":371390564,"gmtCreate":1618908142058,"gmtModify":1704716690981,"author":{"id":"3571383857875160","authorId":"3571383857875160","name":"TheRealDon44","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d75a627ee67d439fe61fdbbdfb7f4da0","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3571383857875160","authorIdStr":"3571383857875160"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Wow","listText":"Wow","text":"Wow","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/371390564","repostId":"1129471770","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1129471770","kind":"news","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"Stock Market Quotes, Business News, Financial News, Trading Ideas, and Stock Research by Professionals","home_visible":0,"media_name":"Benzinga","id":"1052270027","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d08bf7808052c0ca9deb4e944cae32aa"},"pubTimestamp":1618793935,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1129471770?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2021-04-19 08:58","market":"us","language":"en","title":"IPO Preview: UiPath Inc, KnowBe4, Zymergen, Latham Holdings Highlight Busy Week Of Offerings","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1129471770","media":"Benzinga","summary":"This week’s offerings don’t have quite the same high profile as last week's highly anticipated IPO o","content":"<p>This week’s offerings don’t have quite the same high profile as last week's highly anticipated IPO of<b>Coinbase Global</b>COIN 5.96%. Nevertheless, there are several excitingIPOsthat investors should consider this week, including UiPath and Latham Holdings.</p><p>Here is a look at the expected IPO pricings for the week of April 19.</p><p><b>DoubleVerify Holdings:</b>&nbsp;Digital media measurement and analytics company<b>DoubleVerify Holdings</b>&nbsp;NYSE:&nbsp;DV&nbsp;plansto sell 13.3 million shares at a price point of $24 to $27.</p><p>The company makes security software for digital advertising and claims to have over 1,000 advertisers and publishers as partners, and more than 45 customers that each account for $1 million in annual revenue for DoubleVerify.</p><p>The company had revenue of $244 million in fiscal 2020, a year-over-year increase of 34%.</p><p><b>NeuroPace:</b>&nbsp;Commercial-stage medical device company<b>NeuroPace</b>&nbsp;NASDAQ:&nbsp;NPCE&nbsp;says it&nbsp;hasthe first and only commercially-available, brain-responsive system to help fight seizures.</p><p>The company’s target market is customers who have drug-resistant epilepsy. Over 3,000 patients were&nbsp;served by the company through 2020. Neuropace had revenue of $10 million in fiscal 2020 and is guiding for fiscal 2021 revenue of between $11.1 million and $11.3 million.</p><p>Over $28 billion is spent annually on epilepsy care in the United States. The company plans to sell 5.3 million shares at a price point of $15 to $17.</p><p><b>UiPath:</b>Thebiggest IPOof the week is set to be automation company<b>UiPath Inc</b>NYSEPATH, with aplannedoffering of 21.3 million shares at a price point of $43 to $50.</p><p>The company “makes software robots so people don’t have to be robots.” The company had annual recurring revenue of $580 million in the fiscal year ended January 31, 2021, for a growth rate of 65%.&nbsp;UiPath says it has over 7,900 customers, with over 1,000 of them paying $100,000 or more annually to the company.</p><p>The company is targeting a market opportunity of $65 billion and believes its open architecture and end-to-end platform set it apart from competitors.</p><p><b>SkyWater Technology:</b>Pure-play technology foundry<b>SkyWater Technology</b>&nbsp;NASDAQ:&nbsp;SKYT&nbsp;offerssemiconductor development and manufacturing services, targeting&nbsp;customers in markets like advanced computing, aerospace, defense, automotive and IoT.</p><p>The company has 35 customers in its advanced technology services including L3Harris and<b>Microsoft Corporation</b>MSFT 0.48%. SkyWater was divested from Cypress Semiconductor in 2017. The company had revenue of $140.4 million in 2020.</p><p>SkyWater plans to sell 5.8 million shares at a price point of $12 to $14.</p><p><b>KnowBe4:</b>Security platform<b>KnowBe4 Inc</b>&nbsp;NASDAQ:&nbsp;KNBE&nbsp;isseekingto sell 11.8 million shares at a price point of $16 to $18.</p><p>The company serves over 37,000 customers globally in markets worth $15 billion. The company had 45% revenue growth and $198 million in annual recurring revenue last year. It plans to rapidly grow its international operations, which made up 11.9% of revenue in fiscal 2020.</p><p><b>Zymergen: \"</b>Biofacturing\" company<b>Zymergen</b>&nbsp;NASDAQ:&nbsp;ZY&nbsp;plansto sell 13.6 million shares at a price of $28 to $31.</p><p>The company is working on bio-based products including films that could be used in rollable mobile tablet devices.</p><p>The company’s first product, Hyaline, was launched in December 2020, and an additional 10 products are in development. The biofacturing market is worth $1.2 trillion. according to the company.</p><p><b>Agiliti:</b>Healthcare service provider&nbsp;<b>Agiliti Inc</b>NYSEAGTIsays it&nbsp;hasa customer base of over 7,0000 networks and that&nbsp;90% of U.S. acute and alternate care facilities are within a 100-mile radius of an Agiliti service center. The company is seeking to sell 26.3 million shares at a price point of $18 to $20.</p><p><b>Latham Group:</b>A designer, manufacturer and marketer of in-ground residential pools in North America, Australia and New Zealandplansto go public this week.</p><p><b>Latham Group</b>&nbsp;NASDAQ:&nbsp;SWIM&nbsp;plans to sell 20 million shares at a price point of $19 to $21.</p><p>The company sells fiberglass products that are more durable and use less chemicals, according to the company. Latham sold 8,700 fiberglass pools in 2020 and reported its 11th consecutive year of net sales growth.</p><p>The company had revenue of $408 million in fiscal 2020, and&nbsp;59% of it came from in-ground pool sales.</p><p>In 2018, the company shifted from a business-to-business model to business-to-consumer, making it&nbsp;the only pool company with a direct relationship to the homeowner, according to the company.</p><p>Fiberglass pools are still a small market in North America compared to international markets, Latham says. The company claims to have a No. 1 market-share position in all the categories it competes in for the North American market.</p><p></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>IPO Preview: UiPath Inc, KnowBe4, Zymergen, Latham Holdings Highlight Busy Week Of Offerings</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nIPO Preview: UiPath Inc, KnowBe4, Zymergen, Latham Holdings Highlight Busy Week Of Offerings\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n<div class=\"head\" \">\n\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/d08bf7808052c0ca9deb4e944cae32aa);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">Benzinga </p>\n<p class=\"h-time\">2021-04-19 08:58</p>\n</div>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>This week’s offerings don’t have quite the same high profile as last week's highly anticipated IPO of<b>Coinbase Global</b>COIN 5.96%. Nevertheless, there are several excitingIPOsthat investors should consider this week, including UiPath and Latham Holdings.</p><p>Here is a look at the expected IPO pricings for the week of April 19.</p><p><b>DoubleVerify Holdings:</b>&nbsp;Digital media measurement and analytics company<b>DoubleVerify Holdings</b>&nbsp;NYSE:&nbsp;DV&nbsp;plansto sell 13.3 million shares at a price point of $24 to $27.</p><p>The company makes security software for digital advertising and claims to have over 1,000 advertisers and publishers as partners, and more than 45 customers that each account for $1 million in annual revenue for DoubleVerify.</p><p>The company had revenue of $244 million in fiscal 2020, a year-over-year increase of 34%.</p><p><b>NeuroPace:</b>&nbsp;Commercial-stage medical device company<b>NeuroPace</b>&nbsp;NASDAQ:&nbsp;NPCE&nbsp;says it&nbsp;hasthe first and only commercially-available, brain-responsive system to help fight seizures.</p><p>The company’s target market is customers who have drug-resistant epilepsy. Over 3,000 patients were&nbsp;served by the company through 2020. Neuropace had revenue of $10 million in fiscal 2020 and is guiding for fiscal 2021 revenue of between $11.1 million and $11.3 million.</p><p>Over $28 billion is spent annually on epilepsy care in the United States. The company plans to sell 5.3 million shares at a price point of $15 to $17.</p><p><b>UiPath:</b>Thebiggest IPOof the week is set to be automation company<b>UiPath Inc</b>NYSEPATH, with aplannedoffering of 21.3 million shares at a price point of $43 to $50.</p><p>The company “makes software robots so people don’t have to be robots.” The company had annual recurring revenue of $580 million in the fiscal year ended January 31, 2021, for a growth rate of 65%.&nbsp;UiPath says it has over 7,900 customers, with over 1,000 of them paying $100,000 or more annually to the company.</p><p>The company is targeting a market opportunity of $65 billion and believes its open architecture and end-to-end platform set it apart from competitors.</p><p><b>SkyWater Technology:</b>Pure-play technology foundry<b>SkyWater Technology</b>&nbsp;NASDAQ:&nbsp;SKYT&nbsp;offerssemiconductor development and manufacturing services, targeting&nbsp;customers in markets like advanced computing, aerospace, defense, automotive and IoT.</p><p>The company has 35 customers in its advanced technology services including L3Harris and<b>Microsoft Corporation</b>MSFT 0.48%. SkyWater was divested from Cypress Semiconductor in 2017. The company had revenue of $140.4 million in 2020.</p><p>SkyWater plans to sell 5.8 million shares at a price point of $12 to $14.</p><p><b>KnowBe4:</b>Security platform<b>KnowBe4 Inc</b>&nbsp;NASDAQ:&nbsp;KNBE&nbsp;isseekingto sell 11.8 million shares at a price point of $16 to $18.</p><p>The company serves over 37,000 customers globally in markets worth $15 billion. The company had 45% revenue growth and $198 million in annual recurring revenue last year. It plans to rapidly grow its international operations, which made up 11.9% of revenue in fiscal 2020.</p><p><b>Zymergen: \"</b>Biofacturing\" company<b>Zymergen</b>&nbsp;NASDAQ:&nbsp;ZY&nbsp;plansto sell 13.6 million shares at a price of $28 to $31.</p><p>The company is working on bio-based products including films that could be used in rollable mobile tablet devices.</p><p>The company’s first product, Hyaline, was launched in December 2020, and an additional 10 products are in development. The biofacturing market is worth $1.2 trillion. according to the company.</p><p><b>Agiliti:</b>Healthcare service provider&nbsp;<b>Agiliti Inc</b>NYSEAGTIsays it&nbsp;hasa customer base of over 7,0000 networks and that&nbsp;90% of U.S. acute and alternate care facilities are within a 100-mile radius of an Agiliti service center. The company is seeking to sell 26.3 million shares at a price point of $18 to $20.</p><p><b>Latham Group:</b>A designer, manufacturer and marketer of in-ground residential pools in North America, Australia and New Zealandplansto go public this week.</p><p><b>Latham Group</b>&nbsp;NASDAQ:&nbsp;SWIM&nbsp;plans to sell 20 million shares at a price point of $19 to $21.</p><p>The company sells fiberglass products that are more durable and use less chemicals, according to the company. Latham sold 8,700 fiberglass pools in 2020 and reported its 11th consecutive year of net sales growth.</p><p>The company had revenue of $408 million in fiscal 2020, and&nbsp;59% of it came from in-ground pool sales.</p><p>In 2018, the company shifted from a business-to-business model to business-to-consumer, making it&nbsp;the only pool company with a direct relationship to the homeowner, according to the company.</p><p>Fiberglass pools are still a small market in North America compared to international markets, Latham says. The company claims to have a No. 1 market-share position in all the categories it competes in for the North American market.</p><p></p>\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"SKYT":"SkyWater Technology, Inc.","PATH":"UiPath","SWIM":"Latham Group, Inc.","NPCE":"NeuroPace Inc.","DV":"DoubleVerify Holdings, Inc.","KNBE":"KnowBe4, Inc.","AGTI":"Agiliti, Inc."},"is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1129471770","content_text":"This week’s offerings don’t have quite the same high profile as last week's highly anticipated IPO ofCoinbase GlobalCOIN 5.96%. Nevertheless, there are several excitingIPOsthat investors should consider this week, including UiPath and Latham Holdings.Here is a look at the expected IPO pricings for the week of April 19.DoubleVerify Holdings: Digital media measurement and analytics companyDoubleVerify Holdings NYSE: DV plansto sell 13.3 million shares at a price point of $24 to $27.The company makes security software for digital advertising and claims to have over 1,000 advertisers and publishers as partners, and more than 45 customers that each account for $1 million in annual revenue for DoubleVerify.The company had revenue of $244 million in fiscal 2020, a year-over-year increase of 34%.NeuroPace: Commercial-stage medical device companyNeuroPace NASDAQ: NPCE says it hasthe first and only commercially-available, brain-responsive system to help fight seizures.The company’s target market is customers who have drug-resistant epilepsy. Over 3,000 patients were served by the company through 2020. Neuropace had revenue of $10 million in fiscal 2020 and is guiding for fiscal 2021 revenue of between $11.1 million and $11.3 million.Over $28 billion is spent annually on epilepsy care in the United States. The company plans to sell 5.3 million shares at a price point of $15 to $17.UiPath:Thebiggest IPOof the week is set to be automation companyUiPath IncNYSEPATH, with aplannedoffering of 21.3 million shares at a price point of $43 to $50.The company “makes software robots so people don’t have to be robots.” The company had annual recurring revenue of $580 million in the fiscal year ended January 31, 2021, for a growth rate of 65%. UiPath says it has over 7,900 customers, with over 1,000 of them paying $100,000 or more annually to the company.The company is targeting a market opportunity of $65 billion and believes its open architecture and end-to-end platform set it apart from competitors.SkyWater Technology:Pure-play technology foundrySkyWater Technology NASDAQ: SKYT offerssemiconductor development and manufacturing services, targeting customers in markets like advanced computing, aerospace, defense, automotive and IoT.The company has 35 customers in its advanced technology services including L3Harris andMicrosoft CorporationMSFT 0.48%. SkyWater was divested from Cypress Semiconductor in 2017. The company had revenue of $140.4 million in 2020.SkyWater plans to sell 5.8 million shares at a price point of $12 to $14.KnowBe4:Security platformKnowBe4 Inc NASDAQ: KNBE isseekingto sell 11.8 million shares at a price point of $16 to $18.The company serves over 37,000 customers globally in markets worth $15 billion. The company had 45% revenue growth and $198 million in annual recurring revenue last year. It plans to rapidly grow its international operations, which made up 11.9% of revenue in fiscal 2020.Zymergen: \"Biofacturing\" companyZymergen NASDAQ: ZY plansto sell 13.6 million shares at a price of $28 to $31.The company is working on bio-based products including films that could be used in rollable mobile tablet devices.The company’s first product, Hyaline, was launched in December 2020, and an additional 10 products are in development. The biofacturing market is worth $1.2 trillion. according to the company.Agiliti:Healthcare service provider Agiliti IncNYSEAGTIsays it hasa customer base of over 7,0000 networks and that 90% of U.S. acute and alternate care facilities are within a 100-mile radius of an Agiliti service center. The company is seeking to sell 26.3 million shares at a price point of $18 to $20.Latham Group:A designer, manufacturer and marketer of in-ground residential pools in North America, Australia and New Zealandplansto go public this week.Latham Group NASDAQ: SWIM plans to sell 20 million shares at a price point of $19 to $21.The company sells fiberglass products that are more durable and use less chemicals, according to the company. Latham sold 8,700 fiberglass pools in 2020 and reported its 11th consecutive year of net sales growth.The company had revenue of $408 million in fiscal 2020, and 59% of it came from in-ground pool sales.In 2018, the company shifted from a business-to-business model to business-to-consumer, making it the only pool company with a direct relationship to the homeowner, according to the company.Fiberglass pools are still a small market in North America compared to international markets, Latham says. The company claims to have a No. 1 market-share position in all the categories it competes in for the North American market.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"ZY":0.9,"KNBE":0.9,"AGTI":0.9,"PATH":0.9,"SWIM":0.9,"DV":0.9,"NPCE":0.9,"SKYT":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":878,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":344847776,"gmtCreate":1618401416395,"gmtModify":1704710222997,"author":{"id":"3571383857875160","authorId":"3571383857875160","name":"TheRealDon44","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d75a627ee67d439fe61fdbbdfb7f4da0","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3571383857875160","authorIdStr":"3571383857875160"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Take my money&nbsp;","listText":"Take my money&nbsp;","text":"Take my money","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":5,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/344847776","repostId":"2127454000","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":643,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":101505237,"gmtCreate":1619920351829,"gmtModify":1704336342580,"author":{"id":"3571383857875160","authorId":"3571383857875160","name":"TheRealDon44","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d75a627ee67d439fe61fdbbdfb7f4da0","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3571383857875160","authorIdStr":"3571383857875160"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/PLTR\">$Palantir Technologies Inc.(PLTR)$</a>&nbsp;Long term gain but short term big pain","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/PLTR\">$Palantir Technologies Inc.(PLTR)$</a>&nbsp;Long term gain but short term big pain","text":"$Palantir Technologies Inc.(PLTR)$ Long term gain but short term big pain","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2ae00cbb67200fa8be149f2676516ae8","width":"1080","height":"1920"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/101505237","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":705,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":346264535,"gmtCreate":1618051217527,"gmtModify":1704706339800,"author":{"id":"3571383857875160","authorId":"3571383857875160","name":"TheRealDon44","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d75a627ee67d439fe61fdbbdfb7f4da0","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3571383857875160","authorIdStr":"3571383857875160"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Ok","listText":"Ok","text":"Ok","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/346264535","repostId":"1142324412","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":847,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":359883630,"gmtCreate":1616381873320,"gmtModify":1704793280055,"author":{"id":"3571383857875160","authorId":"3571383857875160","name":"TheRealDon44","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d75a627ee67d439fe61fdbbdfb7f4da0","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3571383857875160","authorIdStr":"3571383857875160"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Cheers","listText":"Cheers","text":"Cheers","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/359883630","repostId":"1158879714","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1158879714","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1616380355,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1158879714?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2021-03-22 10:32","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Headed For A Collapsing Debt Bubble","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1158879714","media":"zerohedge","summary":"A $1.9 trillion stimulus package was recently signed into law in the United States. Can such a stimu","content":"<p>A $1.9 trillion stimulus package was recently signed into law in the United States. Can such a stimulus bill, plus packages passed in other countries, really pull the world economy out of the downturn it has been in 2020? I don’t think so.</p>\n<p>The economy runs on energy, far more than it operates on growing debt. Our energy problems don’t appear to be fixable in the near term, such as six months or a year. Instead, the economy seems to be headed for a collapse of its debt bubble. Eventually, we may see a reset of the world financial system leading to fewer interchangeable currencies, far less international trade and falling production of goods and services. Some governments may collapse.</p>\n<p><b>[1] What Is Debt?</b></p>\n<p>I understand debt to be an&nbsp;<i>indirect promise for future goods and services</i>. These future goods and services can only be created if there are adequate supplies of the right kinds of energy and other materials, in the right places, to make these future goods and services.</p>\n<p>I think of debt as being a&nbsp;<i>time-shifting device.</i>&nbsp;Indirectly, it is a promise that the economy will be able to provide as many, or more, goods and services in the future compared to what it does at the time the loan is taken out.</p>\n<p>Common sense suggests that it is much easier to repay debt with interest in a growing economy than in a shrinking economy. Carmen Reinhart and Ken Rogoff unexpectedly ran across this phenomenon in their 2008 working paper,&nbsp;This Time Is Different: A Panoramic View of Eight Centuries of Financial Crises. They reported (p. 15), “It is notable that the non-defaulters, by and large, are all hugely successful growth stories.” In other words, their analysis of 800 years of governmental debt showed that default was almost inevitable if a country stopped growing or started shrinking.</p>\n<p>The IMF estimates that the world economy&nbsp;shrank by 3.5%&nbsp;in 2020. There are many areas with even worse indications: Euro Area, -7.2%; United Kingdom, -10.0%; India, -8.0%; Mexico, -8.5%; and South Africa, -7.5%. If these situations cannot be turned around quickly, we should expect to see collapsing debt bubbles. Even the US, which shrank by 3.4%, needs a rapid return to growth if it is to keep its debt bubble inflated.</p>\n<p><b>[2] The Inter-Relationship Among (a) Growing Debt, (b) Growing Energy Consumption and a (c) Growing Economy</b></p>\n<p>When we are far from energy limits, growing debt seems to pull the economy along. This is a graphic I put together in 2018, explaining the situation. A small amount of debt is helpful to the system. But, if there gets to be too much debt, both oil prices and interest rates rise, bringing the braking system into action. The bicycle/economy rapidly slows.</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/988ae9ff86e02ba9f0e17f7c656fa38a\" tg-width=\"500\" tg-height=\"345\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p><i>Figure 1. The author’s view of the analogy of a speeding upright bicycle and a speeding economy.</i></p>\n<p>Just as a two-wheeled bicycle needs to be going fast enough to stay upright, the economy needs to be growing rapidly enough for debt to do what it is intended to do. It takes energy supply to create the goods and services that the economy depends on.</p>\n<p>If oil and other energy products are cheap to produce, their benefit will be widely available. Employers will be able to add more efficient machines, such as bigger tractors. These more efficient machines will act to leverage the human labor of the workers. The economy can grow rapidly, without the use of much debt. Figure 2 shows that the world oil price was $20 per barrel in 2020$, or even less, prior to 1974.</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0713c7ad2aa2952ae70ab31f031409a6\" tg-width=\"500\" tg-height=\"301\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p><i>Figure 2. Oil price in 2020 dollars, based on amounts through 2019 in 2019$ from&nbsp;BP’s 2020 Statistical Review of World Energy, the inflationary adjustment from 2019 to 2020 based on CPI Urban prices from the US Department of Labor and the average spot Brent oil price for 2020 based on EIA information.</i></p>\n<p>Figure 3 below shows the historical relationship between the growth in&nbsp;<i>US energy consumption</i>&nbsp;(red line) and&nbsp;<i>the dollar increase in US debt growth required to add a dollar increase in GDP</i>&nbsp;(blue line). This chart calculates ratios for five-year periods because ratios for individual years are unstable.</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/657120d86e4004601bc5a5909fa1cc55\" tg-width=\"500\" tg-height=\"303\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p><i>Figure 3. Comparison of five-year average growth in US energy consumption based on EIA data with five-year average amount of added debt required to add $1 of GDP.</i></p>\n<p>Based on Figure 3, the US average annual growth in energy consumption (red line) generally fell between 1951 and 2020. The quantity of debt that needed to be added to create an additional $1 dollar of GDP (blue line) has generally been rising.</p>\n<p>According to&nbsp;Investopedia,&nbsp;<i>Gross domestic product</i>&nbsp;(<i>GDP</i>) is the total monetary or market value of all the finished goods and services produced within a country’s borders in a specific time period.&nbsp;Notice that there is no mention of debt in this definition. If businesses or governments can find a way to make large amounts of credit available to borrowers who are not very credit worthy, it becomes easy to sell cars, motorcycles or homes to buyers who may never repay that debt. If the economy hits turbulence, these marginal buyers are likely to default, causing a collapse in a debt bubble.</p>\n<p><b>[3] Analyzing Energy Consumption Growth, Debt Growth and Economic Growth for Broader Groupings of Years</b></p>\n<p>To get a better idea what is happening with respect to energy growth, debt growth, and GDP growth, I created some broader groupings of years, based primarily on patterns in Figure 2, showing inflation-adjusted oil prices. The following groupings of years were chosen:</p>\n<ul>\n <li><p>1950-1973</p></li>\n <li><p>1974-1980</p></li>\n <li><p>1981-2000</p></li>\n <li><p>2001-2014</p></li>\n <li><p>2015-2020</p></li>\n</ul>\n<p>Using these groupings of years, I put together charts in which it is easier to see trends.</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/602cfb962c02189ea5825a1f4f7d790d\" tg-width=\"500\" tg-height=\"302\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p><i>Figure 4. Average annual increase in energy consumption for period shown based on EIA data versus average increase in real (inflation-adjusted) GDP for the period shown based on data of the US Bureau of Economic Analysis.</i></p>\n<p>Figure 4 shows that for the US, there has been a general downward trend in the annual growth of energy consumption. At same time, real (that is, inflation-adjusted) GDP has been trending downward, but not quite as quickly.</p>\n<p>We would expect that lower energy consumption would lead to lower growth in real GDP because it takes energy of the appropriate kinds to make goods and services. For example, it takes oil to ship most goods. It takes electricity to operate computers and keep the lights on. According to the&nbsp;World Coal Association, large quantities of coal are used in producing cement and steel. These are important for construction, such as is planned in stimulus projects around the world.</p>\n<p>Also, on Figure 4, the period 1981 to 2000 shows an uptick in both energy consumption growth and real GDP growth. This period corresponds to a period of relatively low oil prices (Figure 2). With lower oil prices, businesses found it affordable to add new devices to leverage human labor, making workers more productive. The growing productivity of workers is at least part of what led to the increased growth in real GDP.</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9dfc9c699891a0b02f9e46e6f3f53bda\" tg-width=\"500\" tg-height=\"301\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p><i>Figure 5. Dollars of additional debt required to add $1 dollar of GDP growth (including inflation), based on data of the US Bureau of Economic Analysis.</i></p>\n<p>Figure 5, above, is disturbing. It strongly suggests that the US economy (and probably a lot of other economies) has needed to add an increasing amount of debt to add $1 of GDP in recent years. This pattern started long before President Biden’s $1.9 trillion stimulus package in 2021.</p>\n<p>To make matters worse, GDP growth in Figure 5 has not been reduced to remove the impact of inflation. On average, removing the impact of inflation reduces the above GDP growth by about half. In the period 2015 to 2020, it took about $4.35 of additional debt to add one dollar of GDP growth, including inflation. It would take about double that amount, or $8.70 worth of debt, to create $1.00 worth of inflation-adjusted growth. With such a low return on added debt, it seems unlikely that the $1.9 trillion stimulus package will increase the growth of the economy very much.</p>\n<p><b>[4] Falling interest rates (Figure 6) are a major part of what allowed the rapid growth in debt after 1981 shown in Figure 5.</b></p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/74f347d946ebcebc62fe4fdee1dfffd3\" tg-width=\"500\" tg-height=\"193\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p><i>Figure 6. 10-Year and 3-Month US Treasury Rates through February 2021, in a chart prepared by the Federal Reserve of St. Louis.</i></p>\n<p>Clearly, debt is more affordable if the interest rate is lower. For example, auto loans and home mortgages have lower monthly payments if the interest rate is lower. It is also clear that governments need to spend less of their tax revenue on interest rate payments if interest rates are lower. Changes made by US President Ronald Reagan when he took office 1981 also encouraged the use of more debt.</p>\n<p>A major concern with respect to today’s debt bubble is the fact that interest rates are about as low as they can go without going negative. In fact, the interest rate on 10-year Treasury bonds is now 1.72%, which is higher than the February 2021 average rate shown on the chart. As interest rates rise, it becomes more costly to add more debt. As interest rates rise, businesses will be less likely to take on debt in order to expand and hire more workers.</p>\n<p><b>[5] Interest expense is a major expense of governments, businesses, and homeowners everywhere. Energy costs are another major expense of governments, businesses, and homeowners. It makes sense that falling interest rates can partly hide rising energy prices.</b></p>\n<p>A trend toward lower interest rates was needed starting in 1981 because the US could no longer produce large amounts of crude oil that were profitable to sell at less than $20 per barrel, in inflation-adjusted prices. Lower interest rates made adding debt more feasible. This added debt could smooth the transition to an economy that was less dependent on oil, now that it was high-priced. The lower interest rates helped all segments of the economy adjust to the new higher cost of oil and other fuels.</p>\n<p><b>[6] The US experience shows precisely how helpful having a rapidly growing supply of inexpensive to produce oil could be to an economy.</b></p>\n<p>US oil production, excluding Alaska (blue “remainder” in Figure 7), rose rapidly after 1945 but began to decline not long after hitting a peak in 1970. This growing oil production had temporarily provided a huge boost to the US economy.</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f4038b2f211130347e8f49562c4fcac0\" tg-width=\"500\" tg-height=\"303\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p><i>Figure 7. US crude oil production, based on data of the US Energy Information Administration.</i></p>\n<p>Up until almost 1970, US oil production was rising rapidly. Figure 8 shows that during this period, incomes of both the bottom 90% of workers and the top 10% of workers increased rapidly. Over a period of about 20 years, incomes for both groups grew by about 80%, after adjusting for inflation. On average, workers were about 4% better off each year, with the rapid growth in very inexpensive-to-produce oil, all of which stayed in the US (rather than being exported). US imports of inexpensive-to-produce oil also&nbsp;grew during this period.</p>\n<p>Once oil prices were higher, income growth for both the lower 90% and the top 10% slowed. With the changes made starting in 1981, wage disparities quickly started to grow. There suddenly became a need for new, high-tech approaches that used less oil. But these changes were more helpful to the managers and highly educated workers than the bottom 90% of workers.</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/863a8245e4a663113ef507527988a806\" tg-width=\"500\" tg-height=\"361\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p><i>Figure 8. Chart comparing income gains by the top 10% to income gains by the bottom 90% by economist Emmanuel Saez. Based on an analysis of IRS data,&nbsp;published in Forbes.</i></p>\n<p><b>[7] Most of the world’s cheap-to-extract oil sources have now been exhausted. Our problem is that the world market cannot get prices to rise high enough for producers to cover all of their expenses, including taxes.</b></p>\n<p>Based on my analysis, the world price of oil would need to be at least $120 per barrel to cover all of the costs it needs to cover. The costs that need to be covered include more items than an oil company would normally include in its costs estimates. The company needs to develop new fields to compensate for the ones that are being exhausted. It needs to pay interest on its debt. It also needs to pay dividends to its shareholders. In the case of shale producers, the price needs to be high enough that production outside of “sweet spots” can be carried on profitably.</p>\n<p>For oil exporters, it is especially important that the sales price be high enough so that the government of the oil exporting country can collect adequate tax revenue. Otherwise, the exporting country will not be able to maintain food subsidy programs that the population depends on and public works programs that provide jobs.</p>\n<p><b>[8] The world can add more debt, but it is difficult to see how the debt bubble that is created will really pull the world economy forward rapidly enough to keep the debt bubble from collapsing in the next year or two.</b></p>\n<p>Many models are based on the assumption that the economy can easily go back to the growth rate it had, prior to COVID-19. There are several reasons why this seems unlikely:</p>\n<ul>\n <li><p>Many parts of the world economy weren’t really growing very rapidly prior to the pandemic. For example, shopping malls were doing poorly. Many airlines were in financial difficulty. Private passenger auto sales in China reached a peak in 2017 and have declined every year since.</p></li>\n <li><p>At the low oil prices prior to the pandemic, many oil producers (including the US) would need to reduce their production. The 2019 peak in shale production (shown in Figure 7) may prove to be the peak in US oil production because of low prices.</p></li>\n <li><p>Once people became accustomed to working from home, many of them really do not want to go back to a long commute.</p></li>\n <li><p>It is not clear that the pandemic is really going away, now that we have kept it around this long. New mutations keep appearing. Vaccines aren’t 100% effective.</p></li>\n <li><p>As I showed in Figure 5, adding more debt seems to be a very inefficient way of digging the economy out of a hole. What is really needed is a growing supply of oil that can be produced and sold profitably for less than $20 per barrel. Other types of energy need to be similarly inexpensive.</p></li>\n</ul>\n<p>I should note that intermittent wind and solar energy is not an adequate substitute for oil. It is not even an adequate substitute for “dispatchable” electricity production. It is simply an energy product that has been sufficiently subsidized that it can often make money for its producers. It also sounds good, if it is referred to as “clean energy.” Unfortunately, its true value is lower than its cost of production.</p>\n<p><b>[9] What’s Ahead?</b></p>\n<p>I expect that oil prices will rise a bit, but not enough to raise prices to the level producers require. Interest rates will continue to rise as governments around the world attempt more stimulus. With these higher interest rates and higher oil prices, businesses will do less and less well. This will slow the economy enough that debt defaults become a major problem. Within a few months to a year, the worldwide debt bubble will start to collapse, bringing oil prices down by more than 50%. Stock market prices and prices of buildings of all kinds will fall in inflation-adjusted dollars. Many bonds will prove to be worthless. There will be problems with empty shelves in stores and gasoline stations with no products to sell.</p>\n<p>People will start to see that while debt is a promise for the equivalent of future goods and services, it is not necessarily the case that those who make the promises will be able to stand behind these promises. Paper wealth generally can be expected to lose its value.</p>\n<p>I can imagine a situation, not too many years from now, when<b>countries everywhere will establish new currencies that are not as easily interchangeable</b>with other currencies as today’s currencies are. International trade will dramatically fall. The standard of living of most people will fall precipitously.</p>\n<p>I doubt that the new currencies will be electronic currencies. Keeping the electricity on is a difficult task in economies that increasingly need to rely solely on local resources. Electricity may be out for months at a time after an equipment failure or a storm. Having a currency that depends on electricity alone would be a poor idea.</p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Headed For A Collapsing Debt Bubble</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nHeaded For A Collapsing Debt Bubble\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-03-22 10:32 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://www.zerohedge.com/economics/headed-collapsing-debt-bubble><strong>zerohedge</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>A $1.9 trillion stimulus package was recently signed into law in the United States. Can such a stimulus bill, plus packages passed in other countries, really pull the world economy out of the downturn...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://www.zerohedge.com/economics/headed-collapsing-debt-bubble\">Source Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{},"source_url":"https://www.zerohedge.com/economics/headed-collapsing-debt-bubble","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1158879714","content_text":"A $1.9 trillion stimulus package was recently signed into law in the United States. Can such a stimulus bill, plus packages passed in other countries, really pull the world economy out of the downturn it has been in 2020? I don’t think so.\nThe economy runs on energy, far more than it operates on growing debt. Our energy problems don’t appear to be fixable in the near term, such as six months or a year. Instead, the economy seems to be headed for a collapse of its debt bubble. Eventually, we may see a reset of the world financial system leading to fewer interchangeable currencies, far less international trade and falling production of goods and services. Some governments may collapse.\n[1] What Is Debt?\nI understand debt to be an indirect promise for future goods and services. These future goods and services can only be created if there are adequate supplies of the right kinds of energy and other materials, in the right places, to make these future goods and services.\nI think of debt as being a time-shifting device. Indirectly, it is a promise that the economy will be able to provide as many, or more, goods and services in the future compared to what it does at the time the loan is taken out.\nCommon sense suggests that it is much easier to repay debt with interest in a growing economy than in a shrinking economy. Carmen Reinhart and Ken Rogoff unexpectedly ran across this phenomenon in their 2008 working paper, This Time Is Different: A Panoramic View of Eight Centuries of Financial Crises. They reported (p. 15), “It is notable that the non-defaulters, by and large, are all hugely successful growth stories.” In other words, their analysis of 800 years of governmental debt showed that default was almost inevitable if a country stopped growing or started shrinking.\nThe IMF estimates that the world economy shrank by 3.5% in 2020. There are many areas with even worse indications: Euro Area, -7.2%; United Kingdom, -10.0%; India, -8.0%; Mexico, -8.5%; and South Africa, -7.5%. If these situations cannot be turned around quickly, we should expect to see collapsing debt bubbles. Even the US, which shrank by 3.4%, needs a rapid return to growth if it is to keep its debt bubble inflated.\n[2] The Inter-Relationship Among (a) Growing Debt, (b) Growing Energy Consumption and a (c) Growing Economy\nWhen we are far from energy limits, growing debt seems to pull the economy along. This is a graphic I put together in 2018, explaining the situation. A small amount of debt is helpful to the system. But, if there gets to be too much debt, both oil prices and interest rates rise, bringing the braking system into action. The bicycle/economy rapidly slows.\n\nFigure 1. The author’s view of the analogy of a speeding upright bicycle and a speeding economy.\nJust as a two-wheeled bicycle needs to be going fast enough to stay upright, the economy needs to be growing rapidly enough for debt to do what it is intended to do. It takes energy supply to create the goods and services that the economy depends on.\nIf oil and other energy products are cheap to produce, their benefit will be widely available. Employers will be able to add more efficient machines, such as bigger tractors. These more efficient machines will act to leverage the human labor of the workers. The economy can grow rapidly, without the use of much debt. Figure 2 shows that the world oil price was $20 per barrel in 2020$, or even less, prior to 1974.\n\nFigure 2. Oil price in 2020 dollars, based on amounts through 2019 in 2019$ from BP’s 2020 Statistical Review of World Energy, the inflationary adjustment from 2019 to 2020 based on CPI Urban prices from the US Department of Labor and the average spot Brent oil price for 2020 based on EIA information.\nFigure 3 below shows the historical relationship between the growth in US energy consumption (red line) and the dollar increase in US debt growth required to add a dollar increase in GDP (blue line). This chart calculates ratios for five-year periods because ratios for individual years are unstable.\n\nFigure 3. Comparison of five-year average growth in US energy consumption based on EIA data with five-year average amount of added debt required to add $1 of GDP.\nBased on Figure 3, the US average annual growth in energy consumption (red line) generally fell between 1951 and 2020. The quantity of debt that needed to be added to create an additional $1 dollar of GDP (blue line) has generally been rising.\nAccording to Investopedia, Gross domestic product (GDP) is the total monetary or market value of all the finished goods and services produced within a country’s borders in a specific time period. Notice that there is no mention of debt in this definition. If businesses or governments can find a way to make large amounts of credit available to borrowers who are not very credit worthy, it becomes easy to sell cars, motorcycles or homes to buyers who may never repay that debt. If the economy hits turbulence, these marginal buyers are likely to default, causing a collapse in a debt bubble.\n[3] Analyzing Energy Consumption Growth, Debt Growth and Economic Growth for Broader Groupings of Years\nTo get a better idea what is happening with respect to energy growth, debt growth, and GDP growth, I created some broader groupings of years, based primarily on patterns in Figure 2, showing inflation-adjusted oil prices. The following groupings of years were chosen:\n\n1950-1973\n1974-1980\n1981-2000\n2001-2014\n2015-2020\n\nUsing these groupings of years, I put together charts in which it is easier to see trends.\n\nFigure 4. Average annual increase in energy consumption for period shown based on EIA data versus average increase in real (inflation-adjusted) GDP for the period shown based on data of the US Bureau of Economic Analysis.\nFigure 4 shows that for the US, there has been a general downward trend in the annual growth of energy consumption. At same time, real (that is, inflation-adjusted) GDP has been trending downward, but not quite as quickly.\nWe would expect that lower energy consumption would lead to lower growth in real GDP because it takes energy of the appropriate kinds to make goods and services. For example, it takes oil to ship most goods. It takes electricity to operate computers and keep the lights on. According to the World Coal Association, large quantities of coal are used in producing cement and steel. These are important for construction, such as is planned in stimulus projects around the world.\nAlso, on Figure 4, the period 1981 to 2000 shows an uptick in both energy consumption growth and real GDP growth. This period corresponds to a period of relatively low oil prices (Figure 2). With lower oil prices, businesses found it affordable to add new devices to leverage human labor, making workers more productive. The growing productivity of workers is at least part of what led to the increased growth in real GDP.\n\nFigure 5. Dollars of additional debt required to add $1 dollar of GDP growth (including inflation), based on data of the US Bureau of Economic Analysis.\nFigure 5, above, is disturbing. It strongly suggests that the US economy (and probably a lot of other economies) has needed to add an increasing amount of debt to add $1 of GDP in recent years. This pattern started long before President Biden’s $1.9 trillion stimulus package in 2021.\nTo make matters worse, GDP growth in Figure 5 has not been reduced to remove the impact of inflation. On average, removing the impact of inflation reduces the above GDP growth by about half. In the period 2015 to 2020, it took about $4.35 of additional debt to add one dollar of GDP growth, including inflation. It would take about double that amount, or $8.70 worth of debt, to create $1.00 worth of inflation-adjusted growth. With such a low return on added debt, it seems unlikely that the $1.9 trillion stimulus package will increase the growth of the economy very much.\n[4] Falling interest rates (Figure 6) are a major part of what allowed the rapid growth in debt after 1981 shown in Figure 5.\n\nFigure 6. 10-Year and 3-Month US Treasury Rates through February 2021, in a chart prepared by the Federal Reserve of St. Louis.\nClearly, debt is more affordable if the interest rate is lower. For example, auto loans and home mortgages have lower monthly payments if the interest rate is lower. It is also clear that governments need to spend less of their tax revenue on interest rate payments if interest rates are lower. Changes made by US President Ronald Reagan when he took office 1981 also encouraged the use of more debt.\nA major concern with respect to today’s debt bubble is the fact that interest rates are about as low as they can go without going negative. In fact, the interest rate on 10-year Treasury bonds is now 1.72%, which is higher than the February 2021 average rate shown on the chart. As interest rates rise, it becomes more costly to add more debt. As interest rates rise, businesses will be less likely to take on debt in order to expand and hire more workers.\n[5] Interest expense is a major expense of governments, businesses, and homeowners everywhere. Energy costs are another major expense of governments, businesses, and homeowners. It makes sense that falling interest rates can partly hide rising energy prices.\nA trend toward lower interest rates was needed starting in 1981 because the US could no longer produce large amounts of crude oil that were profitable to sell at less than $20 per barrel, in inflation-adjusted prices. Lower interest rates made adding debt more feasible. This added debt could smooth the transition to an economy that was less dependent on oil, now that it was high-priced. The lower interest rates helped all segments of the economy adjust to the new higher cost of oil and other fuels.\n[6] The US experience shows precisely how helpful having a rapidly growing supply of inexpensive to produce oil could be to an economy.\nUS oil production, excluding Alaska (blue “remainder” in Figure 7), rose rapidly after 1945 but began to decline not long after hitting a peak in 1970. This growing oil production had temporarily provided a huge boost to the US economy.\n\nFigure 7. US crude oil production, based on data of the US Energy Information Administration.\nUp until almost 1970, US oil production was rising rapidly. Figure 8 shows that during this period, incomes of both the bottom 90% of workers and the top 10% of workers increased rapidly. Over a period of about 20 years, incomes for both groups grew by about 80%, after adjusting for inflation. On average, workers were about 4% better off each year, with the rapid growth in very inexpensive-to-produce oil, all of which stayed in the US (rather than being exported). US imports of inexpensive-to-produce oil also grew during this period.\nOnce oil prices were higher, income growth for both the lower 90% and the top 10% slowed. With the changes made starting in 1981, wage disparities quickly started to grow. There suddenly became a need for new, high-tech approaches that used less oil. But these changes were more helpful to the managers and highly educated workers than the bottom 90% of workers.\n\nFigure 8. Chart comparing income gains by the top 10% to income gains by the bottom 90% by economist Emmanuel Saez. Based on an analysis of IRS data, published in Forbes.\n[7] Most of the world’s cheap-to-extract oil sources have now been exhausted. Our problem is that the world market cannot get prices to rise high enough for producers to cover all of their expenses, including taxes.\nBased on my analysis, the world price of oil would need to be at least $120 per barrel to cover all of the costs it needs to cover. The costs that need to be covered include more items than an oil company would normally include in its costs estimates. The company needs to develop new fields to compensate for the ones that are being exhausted. It needs to pay interest on its debt. It also needs to pay dividends to its shareholders. In the case of shale producers, the price needs to be high enough that production outside of “sweet spots” can be carried on profitably.\nFor oil exporters, it is especially important that the sales price be high enough so that the government of the oil exporting country can collect adequate tax revenue. Otherwise, the exporting country will not be able to maintain food subsidy programs that the population depends on and public works programs that provide jobs.\n[8] The world can add more debt, but it is difficult to see how the debt bubble that is created will really pull the world economy forward rapidly enough to keep the debt bubble from collapsing in the next year or two.\nMany models are based on the assumption that the economy can easily go back to the growth rate it had, prior to COVID-19. There are several reasons why this seems unlikely:\n\nMany parts of the world economy weren’t really growing very rapidly prior to the pandemic. For example, shopping malls were doing poorly. Many airlines were in financial difficulty. Private passenger auto sales in China reached a peak in 2017 and have declined every year since.\nAt the low oil prices prior to the pandemic, many oil producers (including the US) would need to reduce their production. The 2019 peak in shale production (shown in Figure 7) may prove to be the peak in US oil production because of low prices.\nOnce people became accustomed to working from home, many of them really do not want to go back to a long commute.\nIt is not clear that the pandemic is really going away, now that we have kept it around this long. New mutations keep appearing. Vaccines aren’t 100% effective.\nAs I showed in Figure 5, adding more debt seems to be a very inefficient way of digging the economy out of a hole. What is really needed is a growing supply of oil that can be produced and sold profitably for less than $20 per barrel. Other types of energy need to be similarly inexpensive.\n\nI should note that intermittent wind and solar energy is not an adequate substitute for oil. It is not even an adequate substitute for “dispatchable” electricity production. It is simply an energy product that has been sufficiently subsidized that it can often make money for its producers. It also sounds good, if it is referred to as “clean energy.” Unfortunately, its true value is lower than its cost of production.\n[9] What’s Ahead?\nI expect that oil prices will rise a bit, but not enough to raise prices to the level producers require. Interest rates will continue to rise as governments around the world attempt more stimulus. With these higher interest rates and higher oil prices, businesses will do less and less well. This will slow the economy enough that debt defaults become a major problem. Within a few months to a year, the worldwide debt bubble will start to collapse, bringing oil prices down by more than 50%. Stock market prices and prices of buildings of all kinds will fall in inflation-adjusted dollars. Many bonds will prove to be worthless. There will be problems with empty shelves in stores and gasoline stations with no products to sell.\nPeople will start to see that while debt is a promise for the equivalent of future goods and services, it is not necessarily the case that those who make the promises will be able to stand behind these promises. Paper wealth generally can be expected to lose its value.\nI can imagine a situation, not too many years from now, whencountries everywhere will establish new currencies that are not as easily interchangeablewith other currencies as today’s currencies are. International trade will dramatically fall. The standard of living of most people will fall precipitously.\nI doubt that the new currencies will be electronic currencies. Keeping the electricity on is a difficult task in economies that increasingly need to rely solely on local resources. Electricity may be out for months at a time after an equipment failure or a storm. Having a currency that depends on electricity alone would be a poor idea.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":706,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":350215648,"gmtCreate":1616211037884,"gmtModify":1704792219653,"author":{"id":"3571383857875160","authorId":"3571383857875160","name":"TheRealDon44","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d75a627ee67d439fe61fdbbdfb7f4da0","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3571383857875160","authorIdStr":"3571383857875160"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"SPAC is bad","listText":"SPAC is bad","text":"SPAC is bad","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/350215648","repostId":"1126157111","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":699,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0}],"lives":[]}