AhOng personal page - To The Moon

AhOng

AhOng

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2021-06-18

$HollyFrontier(HFC)$ can buy now?

2021-06-08

Read

Bank of America: Some investment patterns in US stocks since 1928

2021-06-20

Very good performance

A surge of 18 times in 10 years! Did you miss out on the lucrative dividends of tech stocks?

2021-09-20

$Fair Isaac Corp(FICO)$patience

@金思汇闻:FICO，一個有價值觀的偉大企業(十年十倍股系列五)

2021-09-18

This is good

2021-08-26

$Ulta Salon(ULTA)$US10 away from prediction of 420

2021-08-29

Interesting

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2021-04-01

$Lemonade, Inc.(LMND)$ back from dead?

2021-06-26

Sell when high?

Sorry, the original content has been removed

2021-06-07

Ok

410 billion yuan! CATL welcomes the huge lifting of the ban, can it survive safely?

2021-04-07

Worth to keep

Historical Verification: April Could Be the Easiest Month to Make Money

2021-04-03

$Stamps.com Inc(STMP)$cool

2021-05-01

Red Bull ?

Nio rose strongly, from falling 4% to rising by more than 5%

2021-04-29

$Playtika Holding Corp.(PLTK)$yes

2021-04-22

$Coinbase Global, Inc.(COIN)$goof

Sorry, the original content has been removed

2021-03-26

Up up

2021-02-28

Be aware

How high will US inflation be this year? Peak may exceed 5%

2021-04-06

Go Korea

Credit Suisse's head of investment banking business to leave as it suffers heavy losses on Archegos

2021-04-06

Still have ?

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2021-04-04

$CDL Hospitality Trust(CDHSF)$ gathering power

Go to Tiger App to see more news

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know&nbsp;","listText":"HJ know&nbsp;","text":"HJ know","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9949028241","repostId":"627602201","repostType":1,"repost":{"id":627602201,"gmtCreate":1678247623000,"gmtModify":1678249373415,"author":{"id":"3578460021109326","authorId":"3578460021109326","name":"时代财经","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/91c2175656a070c51747405cb8325278","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3578460021109326","idStr":"3578460021109326"},"themes":[],"title":"深度解讀國務院機構改革，張燕生：“省錢”是庸俗化的曲解，關鍵是減少改革阻力","htmlText":"本文來源：時代財經 作者：餘思毅 國務院機構改革方案來了！ 3月7日，第十四屆全國人民代表大會舉行第二次全體會議，會議內容包括聽取國務委員兼國務院祕書長肖捷關於國務院機構改革方案的說明。 據肖捷介紹，國務院提請全國人大代表審議的《國務院機構改革方案的議案》（下簡稱“改革方案議案”）涉及機構調整等內容，調整後，除國務院辦公廳外，國務院設置組成部門仍爲26個。 究竟如何理解改革方案的出發點與改革思路？3月7日傍晚，時代財經專訪了中國國際經濟交流中心首席研究員、國家發改委對外經濟研究所原所長張燕生，其對改革方案議案進行了解讀。 改革方案議案提及，中央國家機關各部門人員編制統一按照5%的比例進行精減，收回的編制主要用於加強重點領域和重要工作。 張燕生指出，國務院機構改革縮減編制的出發點不是爲了解決財政問題、節約錢，“這是庸俗化的曲解“。此舉關鍵是提高國務院的機構公共服務的效率，減少改革阻力。 在張燕生看來，這次改革是把過去40年來，中央部委、央地之間和一些專業職能部門之間存在的交叉職責進行理順，是一個漸進式的改革。 張燕生以金融監管爲例子，改革方案把金融監管的部門之間，如人民銀行、金融監管機構、證監會之間的交叉監管理清，爲今後金融系統性和區域性風險的防範和化解奠定堅實基礎。 理順與整合的改革思路反映到科學技術領域是重新組建科學技術部。張燕生進一步指出，重組科學技術部的核心問題是在面對百年變局中，從戰略全局的角度出發，使得國家的科技戰略資源的整合能力更強。 以下爲對話實錄： 圖片來源：圖蟲創意 時代財經：在衆多改革措施中，中央國家機關各部門縮編5%引發較多關注，有不少網友認爲削減編制或與財政緊張有關，你怎麼看？ 張燕生：當下確實存在不少理解誤區，把國務院機構改革縮減編制轉變職能加強協調認爲是爲了解決財政問題、節約錢，這完全是庸俗化的曲解。 放眼全球主要國家的資產負債狀況，中國國家資","listText":"本文來源：時代財經 作者：餘思毅 國務院機構改革方案來了！ 3月7日，第十四屆全國人民代表大會舉行第二次全體會議，會議內容包括聽取國務委員兼國務院祕書長肖捷關於國務院機構改革方案的說明。 據肖捷介紹，國務院提請全國人大代表審議的《國務院機構改革方案的議案》（下簡稱“改革方案議案”）涉及機構調整等內容，調整後，除國務院辦公廳外，國務院設置組成部門仍爲26個。 究竟如何理解改革方案的出發點與改革思路？3月7日傍晚，時代財經專訪了中國國際經濟交流中心首席研究員、國家發改委對外經濟研究所原所長張燕生，其對改革方案議案進行了解讀。 改革方案議案提及，中央國家機關各部門人員編制統一按照5%的比例進行精減，收回的編制主要用於加強重點領域和重要工作。 張燕生指出，國務院機構改革縮減編制的出發點不是爲了解決財政問題、節約錢，“這是庸俗化的曲解“。此舉關鍵是提高國務院的機構公共服務的效率，減少改革阻力。 在張燕生看來，這次改革是把過去40年來，中央部委、央地之間和一些專業職能部門之間存在的交叉職責進行理順，是一個漸進式的改革。 張燕生以金融監管爲例子，改革方案把金融監管的部門之間，如人民銀行、金融監管機構、證監會之間的交叉監管理清，爲今後金融系統性和區域性風險的防範和化解奠定堅實基礎。 理順與整合的改革思路反映到科學技術領域是重新組建科學技術部。張燕生進一步指出，重組科學技術部的核心問題是在面對百年變局中，從戰略全局的角度出發，使得國家的科技戰略資源的整合能力更強。 以下爲對話實錄： 圖片來源：圖蟲創意 時代財經：在衆多改革措施中，中央國家機關各部門縮編5%引發較多關注，有不少網友認爲削減編制或與財政緊張有關，你怎麼看？ 張燕生：當下確實存在不少理解誤區，把國務院機構改革縮減編制轉變職能加強協調認爲是爲了解決財政問題、節約錢，這完全是庸俗化的曲解。 放眼全球主要國家的資產負債狀況，中國國家資","text":"本文來源：時代財經 作者：餘思毅 國務院機構改革方案來了！ 3月7日，第十四屆全國人民代表大會舉行第二次全體會議，會議內容包括聽取國務委員兼國務院祕書長肖捷關於國務院機構改革方案的說明。 據肖捷介紹，國務院提請全國人大代表審議的《國務院機構改革方案的議案》（下簡稱“改革方案議案”）涉及機構調整等內容，調整後，除國務院辦公廳外，國務院設置組成部門仍爲26個。 究竟如何理解改革方案的出發點與改革思路？3月7日傍晚，時代財經專訪了中國國際經濟交流中心首席研究員、國家發改委對外經濟研究所原所長張燕生，其對改革方案議案進行了解讀。 改革方案議案提及，中央國家機關各部門人員編制統一按照5%的比例進行精減，收回的編制主要用於加強重點領域和重要工作。 張燕生指出，國務院機構改革縮減編制的出發點不是爲了解決財政問題、節約錢，“這是庸俗化的曲解“。此舉關鍵是提高國務院的機構公共服務的效率，減少改革阻力。 在張燕生看來，這次改革是把過去40年來，中央部委、央地之間和一些專業職能部門之間存在的交叉職責進行理順，是一個漸進式的改革。 張燕生以金融監管爲例子，改革方案把金融監管的部門之間，如人民銀行、金融監管機構、證監會之間的交叉監管理清，爲今後金融系統性和區域性風險的防範和化解奠定堅實基礎。 理順與整合的改革思路反映到科學技術領域是重新組建科學技術部。張燕生進一步指出，重組科學技術部的核心問題是在面對百年變局中，從戰略全局的角度出發，使得國家的科技戰略資源的整合能力更強。 以下爲對話實錄： 圖片來源：圖蟲創意 時代財經：在衆多改革措施中，中央國家機關各部門縮編5%引發較多關注，有不少網友認爲削減編制或與財政緊張有關，你怎麼看？ 張燕生：當下確實存在不少理解誤區，把國務院機構改革縮減編制轉變職能加強協調認爲是爲了解決財政問題、節約錢，這完全是庸俗化的曲解。 放眼全球主要國家的資產負債狀況，中國國家資","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":2,"essential":1,"paper":2,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/627602201","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":0,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2102,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9949028643,"gmtCreate":1678250351083,"gmtModify":1678250355238,"author":{"id":"3571557586397050","authorId":"3571557586397050","name":"AhOng","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e3edadf648d1a9539369c3fdbd0e0a61","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3571557586397050","idStr":"3571557586397050"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"😊&nbsp;","listText":"😊&nbsp;","text":"😊","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9949028643","repostId":"627606234","repostType":1,"repost":{"id":627606234,"gmtCreate":1678248180000,"gmtModify":1678249382065,"author":{"id":"3574917796328560","authorId":"3574917796328560","name":"钛媒体APP","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/72948639b39fd795a430fcaa2772851c","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3574917796328560","idStr":"3574917796328560"},"themes":[],"title":"減配降價，零跑的困局 | 鈦媒體深度","htmlText":"造車新勢力第二梯隊的生存之難已凸顯。 2023年開年，零跑汽車銷量罕見出現環比暴跌，根據官方數據，1月交付量僅爲爲1139輛，環比下降86.59%；2月最新銷量數據顯示也僅交付3198輛。而根據銷量數據更真實的第三方統計機構交強險的數據，零跑汽車1月的銷量僅爲618輛，而2022年12月還高達14846輛，環比降幅高達95.83%，爲新勢力環比降幅之最。 一個月3位數的成績，還要追溯到3年前的2020年5月。那時候，零跑汽車還陷在活下去的泥潭中——首款新車S01出師不利，第二款定位爲A00級純電小車的T03纔剛剛上市，前途未卜。 沒想到兩年多以後，當初的痛苦經歷再次找上門來，而且痛苦的程度比上一次更猛烈——上一次單月銷量在3位數時還只有S01一款車型，而這次在有4款車型同時在售的前提下依然取得了當初一款車的成績，可想而知這次零跑汽車的壓力有多大。 上一次，零跑依靠着T03這款純電小車走性價比的路線，艱難的活了下來。而這一次，零跑汽車欲意複製上一次的成功經驗，依舊採用性價比路線，想要走出當下的困境。 3月1日，零跑汽車一口氣發佈了4款新車，包括一款C11增程版全新車型和其他3款改款車型。而這3款改款車型的共同特點就是降價——C11純電版降價2～3萬元，C01降價4.4～5.8萬元，T03降價0.96～2.26萬元。 對於零跑此次打出的救市方案，一位在零跑汽車工作多年的行業人士告訴鈦媒體App，“零跑這次降價促銷，有點一把梭哈的意思，成不成在此一搏了。”但是他也判斷，“這次比較難。” 那麼，曾經宣稱“已渡過活下去危機”的零跑汽車，是如何又陷入到銷量危機的，這次又能否安全上岸？ 首款車出師不利，還遭用戶維權 2019年1月3日，零跑汽車首款新車S01宣佈上市，新車共提供NEDC續航里程分別爲300和380公里兩個版本，官方指導價爲18.99-22.99萬元，但綜合補貼後爲10.9","listText":"造車新勢力第二梯隊的生存之難已凸顯。 2023年開年，零跑汽車銷量罕見出現環比暴跌，根據官方數據，1月交付量僅爲爲1139輛，環比下降86.59%；2月最新銷量數據顯示也僅交付3198輛。而根據銷量數據更真實的第三方統計機構交強險的數據，零跑汽車1月的銷量僅爲618輛，而2022年12月還高達14846輛，環比降幅高達95.83%，爲新勢力環比降幅之最。 一個月3位數的成績，還要追溯到3年前的2020年5月。那時候，零跑汽車還陷在活下去的泥潭中——首款新車S01出師不利，第二款定位爲A00級純電小車的T03纔剛剛上市，前途未卜。 沒想到兩年多以後，當初的痛苦經歷再次找上門來，而且痛苦的程度比上一次更猛烈——上一次單月銷量在3位數時還只有S01一款車型，而這次在有4款車型同時在售的前提下依然取得了當初一款車的成績，可想而知這次零跑汽車的壓力有多大。 上一次，零跑依靠着T03這款純電小車走性價比的路線，艱難的活了下來。而這一次，零跑汽車欲意複製上一次的成功經驗，依舊採用性價比路線，想要走出當下的困境。 3月1日，零跑汽車一口氣發佈了4款新車，包括一款C11增程版全新車型和其他3款改款車型。而這3款改款車型的共同特點就是降價——C11純電版降價2～3萬元，C01降價4.4～5.8萬元，T03降價0.96～2.26萬元。 對於零跑此次打出的救市方案，一位在零跑汽車工作多年的行業人士告訴鈦媒體App，“零跑這次降價促銷，有點一把梭哈的意思，成不成在此一搏了。”但是他也判斷，“這次比較難。” 那麼，曾經宣稱“已渡過活下去危機”的零跑汽車，是如何又陷入到銷量危機的，這次又能否安全上岸？ 首款車出師不利，還遭用戶維權 2019年1月3日，零跑汽車首款新車S01宣佈上市，新車共提供NEDC續航里程分別爲300和380公里兩個版本，官方指導價爲18.99-22.99萬元，但綜合補貼後爲10.9","text":"造車新勢力第二梯隊的生存之難已凸顯。 2023年開年，零跑汽車銷量罕見出現環比暴跌，根據官方數據，1月交付量僅爲爲1139輛，環比下降86.59%；2月最新銷量數據顯示也僅交付3198輛。而根據銷量數據更真實的第三方統計機構交強險的數據，零跑汽車1月的銷量僅爲618輛，而2022年12月還高達14846輛，環比降幅高達95.83%，爲新勢力環比降幅之最。 一個月3位數的成績，還要追溯到3年前的2020年5月。那時候，零跑汽車還陷在活下去的泥潭中——首款新車S01出師不利，第二款定位爲A00級純電小車的T03纔剛剛上市，前途未卜。 沒想到兩年多以後，當初的痛苦經歷再次找上門來，而且痛苦的程度比上一次更猛烈——上一次單月銷量在3位數時還只有S01一款車型，而這次在有4款車型同時在售的前提下依然取得了當初一款車的成績，可想而知這次零跑汽車的壓力有多大。 上一次，零跑依靠着T03這款純電小車走性價比的路線，艱難的活了下來。而這一次，零跑汽車欲意複製上一次的成功經驗，依舊採用性價比路線，想要走出當下的困境。 3月1日，零跑汽車一口氣發佈了4款新車，包括一款C11增程版全新車型和其他3款改款車型。而這3款改款車型的共同特點就是降價——C11純電版降價2～3萬元，C01降價4.4～5.8萬元，T03降價0.96～2.26萬元。 對於零跑此次打出的救市方案，一位在零跑汽車工作多年的行業人士告訴鈦媒體App，“零跑這次降價促銷，有點一把梭哈的意思，成不成在此一搏了。”但是他也判斷，“這次比較難。” 那麼，曾經宣稱“已渡過活下去危機”的零跑汽車，是如何又陷入到銷量危機的，這次又能否安全上岸？ 首款車出師不利，還遭用戶維權 2019年1月3日，零跑汽車首款新車S01宣佈上市，新車共提供NEDC續航里程分別爲300和380公里兩個版本，官方指導價爲18.99-22.99萬元，但綜合補貼後爲10.9","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b04526b7544f4e4e90b58a3ca3b16bdc"},{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6ecf0b788671426fa25302e193d2dc18"},{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/957acaceb1814b228d262dc86239bb0b"}],"top":1,"highlighted":2,"essential":1,"paper":2,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/627606234","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":0,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":6,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2447,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9054625272,"gmtCreate":1655385787196,"gmtModify":1676535627447,"author":{"id":"3571557586397050","authorId":"3571557586397050","name":"AhOng","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e3edadf648d1a9539369c3fdbd0e0a61","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3571557586397050","idStr":"3571557586397050"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Joo","listText":"Joo","text":"Joo","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9054625272","repostId":"1152937866","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1152937866","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1655383439,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1152937866?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2022-06-16 20:43","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"Bill Gates: Cryptocurrencies and NFTs are \"nothing but stupid scams\"!","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1152937866","media":"金十数据","summary":"相比之下，比尔·盖茨更青睐投资具有价值产出的资产。微软公司联合创始人比尔·盖茨表示，他认为加密货币和NFT是百分百基于“博傻理论”（greater fool theory）的骗局。“博傻理论”指的是“","content":"<p><html><head></head><body>In contrast, Bill Gates prefers to invest in assets with value output. Microsoft co-founder Bill Gates said he believes cryptocurrencies and NFTs are scams based 100% on the \"greater fool theory\".</p><p>\"Bo Silly Theory\" refers to the idea that \"because enough people are willing to pay high prices, overvalued assets will continue to rise\". Bill Gates, 66, the former richest man in the world, joked:</p><p>\"Obviously, expensive digital images of monkeys will cause great changes in the world.\"<i>Note: \"Expensive Monkey Digital Avatar\" refers to Bored Ape NFT (BAYC), which is built on the Ethereum (ETH) blockchain and its current price is $91,781 (76ETH)/NFT.</i></p><p>For years, Bill Gates has gone to great lengths to bash cryptocurrencies. On June 14, at a TechCrunch event in Berkeley, California, Bill Gates pointed out that people buy cryptocurrency and NFT with the idea that no matter what its current price is, it can be sold at a higher price again, because \"there are always people who are willing to spend more money than I take over.\"</p><p>Bill Gates said that he has never set foot in the currency circle, neither long nor short term. Other world-renowned investors and company executives, including \"stock gods\" Buffett and Jamie Dimon (<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/JPM\">JPMorgan Chase</a>CEO), are also skeptical of cryptocurrencies. Buffet compared Bitcoin to \"rat poison squared\" in 2018.</p><p>NFTs, the full name of Non-Fungible Tokens (Non-Fungible Tokens), are digital certificates for purchasing blockchain goods such as art, digital music, and sneakers. After skyrocketing popularity, recently, demand for NFTs appears to have stalled. And the actions of the Federal Reserve's aggressive rate hike have shattered high-risk bets in the entire financial market. As one of the most speculative products, NFT is doomed.</p><p>When talking about NFT, Gates seems to have just picked out the monkey NFT in the Boring Ape NFT series.</p><p>Bill Gates says he prefers specific assets, such as farms that produce output, or companies that produce products.</p><p>Bill Gates' comments came as Bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies fell sharply as global markets shook, erasing most of their gains since the pandemic.</p><p>On June 15, the price of Bitcoin nearly fell below $20,000. Since hitting an all-time high in November 2021, Bitcoin's prices have fallen by more than two-thirds. The currency circle is in the midst of the fourth major sell-off in its 13-year history.</p><p>Crypto companies that rose to fame due to the cryptocurrency investment boom have also suffered setbacks. Cryptocurrency exchange Coinbase Global Inc. announced it would cut just 20% of its workforce; On the evening of June 12, Celsius Network LLC, one of the world's largest cryptocurrency lenders, told users that it was suspending all withdrawals, swaps and transfers between accounts due to extreme market conditions. Celsius has also hired a law firm to study its restructuring options.</p><p></body></html></p>","source":"jssj","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Bill Gates: Cryptocurrencies and NFTs are \"nothing but stupid scams\"!</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nBill Gates: Cryptocurrencies and NFTs are \"nothing but stupid scams\"!\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">金十数据</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2022-06-16 20:43</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><html><head></head><body>In contrast, Bill Gates prefers to invest in assets with value output. Microsoft co-founder Bill Gates said he believes cryptocurrencies and NFTs are scams based 100% on the \"greater fool theory\".</p><p>\"Bo Silly Theory\" refers to the idea that \"because enough people are willing to pay high prices, overvalued assets will continue to rise\". Bill Gates, 66, the former richest man in the world, joked:</p><p>\"Obviously, expensive digital images of monkeys will cause great changes in the world.\"<i>Note: \"Expensive Monkey Digital Avatar\" refers to Bored Ape NFT (BAYC), which is built on the Ethereum (ETH) blockchain and its current price is $91,781 (76ETH)/NFT.</i></p><p>For years, Bill Gates has gone to great lengths to bash cryptocurrencies. On June 14, at a TechCrunch event in Berkeley, California, Bill Gates pointed out that people buy cryptocurrency and NFT with the idea that no matter what its current price is, it can be sold at a higher price again, because \"there are always people who are willing to spend more money than I take over.\"</p><p>Bill Gates said that he has never set foot in the currency circle, neither long nor short term. Other world-renowned investors and company executives, including \"stock gods\" Buffett and Jamie Dimon (<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/JPM\">JPMorgan Chase</a>CEO), are also skeptical of cryptocurrencies. Buffet compared Bitcoin to \"rat poison squared\" in 2018.</p><p>NFTs, the full name of Non-Fungible Tokens (Non-Fungible Tokens), are digital certificates for purchasing blockchain goods such as art, digital music, and sneakers. After skyrocketing popularity, recently, demand for NFTs appears to have stalled. And the actions of the Federal Reserve's aggressive rate hike have shattered high-risk bets in the entire financial market. As one of the most speculative products, NFT is doomed.</p><p>When talking about NFT, Gates seems to have just picked out the monkey NFT in the Boring Ape NFT series.</p><p>Bill Gates says he prefers specific assets, such as farms that produce output, or companies that produce products.</p><p>Bill Gates' comments came as Bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies fell sharply as global markets shook, erasing most of their gains since the pandemic.</p><p>On June 15, the price of Bitcoin nearly fell below $20,000. Since hitting an all-time high in November 2021, Bitcoin's prices have fallen by more than two-thirds. The currency circle is in the midst of the fourth major sell-off in its 13-year history.</p><p>Crypto companies that rose to fame due to the cryptocurrency investment boom have also suffered setbacks. Cryptocurrency exchange Coinbase Global Inc. announced it would cut just 20% of its workforce; On the evening of June 12, Celsius Network LLC, one of the world's largest cryptocurrency lenders, told users that it was suspending all withdrawals, swaps and transfers between accounts due to extreme market conditions. Celsius has also hired a law firm to study its restructuring options.</p><p></body></html></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> source：<a href=\"https://xnews.jin10.com/details/95658\">金十数据</a></p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f5f084842fb3799c40f34178d55cdc2f","relate_stocks":{"ARKB":"比特币ETF-21Shares",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite","BK4504":"桥水持仓","IBIT":"比特币ETF-iShares","BRRR":"比特币ETF-CoinShares","BK4550":"红杉资本持仓","DEFI":"比特币期货ETF-Hashdex","BK4170":"电脑硬件、储存设备及电脑周边","FBTC":"比特币ETF-Fidelity","BK4207":"综合性银行","EBON":"亿邦国际","EZBC":"比特币ETF-Franklin","BTCO":"比特币ETF-Invesco Galaxy","CAN":"嘉楠科技","BK4581":"高盛持仓","BTCW":"比特币ETF-Wisdom Tree","JPM":"摩根大通","BK4526":"热门中概股","SPY":"标普500ETF",".DJI":"道琼斯","BK4534":"瑞士信贷持仓","BRK.A":"伯克希尔","GBTC":"比特币ETF-Grayscale","BK4533":"AQR资本管理(全球第二大对冲基金)","BRK.B":"伯克希尔B","HODL":"比特币ETF-VanEck","BK4176":"多领域控股","BK4566":"资本集团","BITB":"比特币ETF-Bitwise"},"source_url":"https://xnews.jin10.com/details/95658","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1152937866","content_text":"相比之下，比尔·盖茨更青睐投资具有价值产出的资产。微软公司联合创始人比尔·盖茨表示，他认为加密货币和NFT是百分百基于“博傻理论”（greater fool theory）的骗局。“博傻理论”指的是“因为有足够多的人愿意支付高价，被高估的资产将继续上涨”的理念。现年66岁的前世界首富比尔·盖茨开玩笑说：“显然，昂贵的猴子数字图像将引发世界巨变。”注：“昂贵的猴子数字头像”指无聊猿NFT（BAYC），该NFT建立在以太坊（ETH）区块链上，其当前价格为91781美元（76ETH）/NFT。多年来，比尔·盖茨一直不遗余力地抨击加密货币。6月14日，在加州州伯克利举行TechCrunch活动上，比尔·盖茨指出，人们购买加密货币和NFT的想法是：无论其现价如何，它都可以再次卖出更高价，因为“总有人情愿比我花更多钱接盘”。比尔·盖茨说，他从未涉足过币圈，无论是长期还是短期。其他全球知名的投资者和公司高管，包括“股神”巴菲特和杰米·戴蒙（摩根大通CEO），也均对加密货币持怀疑态度。巴菲特曾在2018年将比特币比作“老鼠药的平方（rat poison squared）。NFT，全称非同质化代币（Non-Fungible Tokens）是购买艺术品、数字音乐和运动鞋等区块链商品的数字凭证。在人气飙升之后，最近，对NFT的需求似乎陷入停滞。而美联储激进加息的行动粉碎了整个金融市场的高风险押注，作为最具投机性的产品之一，NFT在劫难逃。在谈及NFT时，盖茨似乎单单拎出了无聊猿NFT系列中的猴子NFT。比尔·盖茨说，他更喜欢具体的资产，比如有产出的农场，或生产产品的公司。在比尔·盖茨发表上述言论之际，随着全球市场巨震，比特币和其他加密货币大幅下跌，抹去了新冠疫情以来的大部分涨幅。6月15日，比特币的价格险些跌破20000美元。自2021年11月创下历史新高以来，比特币的价格已经下跌了三分之二以上。币圈正值13年历史上第四次大抛售。因加密货币投资热潮的声名鹊起的加密货币公司也纷纷受挫。加密货币交易所Coinbase Global Inc.宣布其将裁员仅20%；6月12日晚间，全球最大的加密货币贷方之一Celsius Network LLC告诉用户称，由于极端的市场条件，该公司正在暂停账户之间的所有提款、掉期和转账。Celsius还聘请了一家律师事务所来研究其重组方案。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"FBTC":1,"BRK.B":0.9,"IBIT":1,"BTCO":1,".DJI":0.9,"BRK.A":0.9,"EBON":0.9,"DEFI":1,"HODL":1,"XBTmain":0.9,"BTCW":1,"CAN":0.9,"SPY":0.9,"JPM":0.9,"BRRR":1,"BITB":1,"EZBC":1,".IXIC":0.9,"BTCmain":0.9,"ARKB":1,"GBTC":1}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2528,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9022379254,"gmtCreate":1653484864078,"gmtModify":1676535290161,"author":{"id":"3571557586397050","authorId":"3571557586397050","name":"AhOng","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e3edadf648d1a9539369c3fdbd0e0a61","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3571557586397050","idStr":"3571557586397050"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Yi","listText":"Yi","text":"Yi","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9022379254","repostId":"9022995256","repostType":1,"repost":{"id":9022995256,"gmtCreate":1653451806675,"gmtModify":1676535285220,"author":{"id":"3558908080415665","authorId":"3558908080415665","name":"Alvin Chow","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2abf7014742f3e282e9781e945db75b0","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3558908080415665","idStr":"3558908080415665"},"themes":[],"title":"Oh Snap! Social media stocks again","htmlText":"As though the market was not bearish enough, Snap announced it was likely to miss its 2Q2022 revenue guidance out of a sudden.The announcement sent Snap's share price down 43% in a day. It is now trading 25% below its IPO price, but still higher than the Covid low.Snap wasn't selfish, it dragged down other social media stocks too. Misery loves company.Social media share price 1-day % change:Alphabet -5%Twitter -6%Yelp -6%Meta Platforms -8%Roblox -10%Pinterest -24%The big question is - are these stocks good buys now?Let's look at their P/S ratios vs their 5-year averages:Yelp: 2.1x vs 3.2x (-34%)Meta: 4.6x vs 10x (-54%)Alphabet: 5.6x vs 6.7x (-16%)Twitter: 5.7x vs 8.7x (-34%)Snap: 8.1x vs 20.7x (-61%)Roblox: 8.4xAll are trading below their 5-year averages with Meta and Snap having the steep","listText":"As though the market was not bearish enough, Snap announced it was likely to miss its 2Q2022 revenue guidance out of a sudden.The announcement sent Snap's share price down 43% in a day. It is now trading 25% below its IPO price, but still higher than the Covid low.Snap wasn't selfish, it dragged down other social media stocks too. Misery loves company.Social media share price 1-day % change:Alphabet -5%Twitter -6%Yelp -6%Meta Platforms -8%Roblox -10%Pinterest -24%The big question is - are these stocks good buys now?Let's look at their P/S ratios vs their 5-year averages:Yelp: 2.1x vs 3.2x (-34%)Meta: 4.6x vs 10x (-54%)Alphabet: 5.6x vs 6.7x (-16%)Twitter: 5.7x vs 8.7x (-34%)Snap: 8.1x vs 20.7x (-61%)Roblox: 8.4xAll are trading below their 5-year averages with Meta and Snap having the steep","text":"As though the market was not bearish enough, Snap announced it was likely to miss its 2Q2022 revenue guidance out of a sudden.The announcement sent Snap's share price down 43% in a day. It is now trading 25% below its IPO price, but still higher than the Covid low.Snap wasn't selfish, it dragged down other social media stocks too. Misery loves company.Social media share price 1-day % change:Alphabet -5%Twitter -6%Yelp -6%Meta Platforms -8%Roblox -10%Pinterest -24%The big question is - are these stocks good buys now?Let's look at their P/S ratios vs their 5-year averages:Yelp: 2.1x vs 3.2x (-34%)Meta: 4.6x vs 10x (-54%)Alphabet: 5.6x vs 6.7x (-16%)Twitter: 5.7x vs 8.7x (-34%)Snap: 8.1x vs 20.7x (-61%)Roblox: 8.4xAll are trading below their 5-year averages with Meta and Snap having the steep","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":2,"essential":2,"paper":2,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9022995256","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":0,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":3575,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9087324872,"gmtCreate":1650959935743,"gmtModify":1676534823359,"author":{"id":"3571557586397050","authorId":"3571557586397050","name":"AhOng","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e3edadf648d1a9539369c3fdbd0e0a61","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3571557586397050","idStr":"3571557586397050"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Ah ah HJ","listText":"Ah ah HJ","text":"Ah ah HJ","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9087324872","repostId":"9084677757","repostType":1,"repost":{"id":9084677757,"gmtCreate":1650863954379,"gmtModify":1676534805884,"author":{"id":"4102650540659720","authorId":"4102650540659720","name":"Big Cat","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"4102650540659720","idStr":"4102650540659720"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/ADBE\">$Adobe(ADBE)$</a>... I&nbsp;has been curious about it for awhile now. I knows Adobe is good[Like]&nbsp;, but for some reasons I keeps forgetting to add it into my favourite list, hahaha[Facepalm]&nbsp;.Today, I finally remembered to add it into my favourite list[Grin]&nbsp;.$Adobe(ADBE)$ &nbsp;is basically a needs in this world. It's considered one of the best of the best software out there[Grin]&nbsp;. I know this because I'm someone who is quite interested in computing &amp; those interesting software[Surprised]&nbsp;.After seeing those cool 😎 ppls making amazing videos out there, I also wonder to myself 🤔 , how they make them [Doubt]&nbsp;.And I got my answer = \"After Effects\" (AE) is the best software recommended.However, I then realised that u ne","listText":"<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/ADBE\">$Adobe(ADBE)$</a>... I&nbsp;has been curious about it for awhile now. I knows Adobe is good[Like]&nbsp;, but for some reasons I keeps forgetting to add it into my favourite list, hahaha[Facepalm]&nbsp;.Today, I finally remembered to add it into my favourite list[Grin]&nbsp;.$Adobe(ADBE)$ &nbsp;is basically a needs in this world. It's considered one of the best of the best software out there[Grin]&nbsp;. I know this because I'm someone who is quite interested in computing &amp; those interesting software[Surprised]&nbsp;.After seeing those cool 😎 ppls making amazing videos out there, I also wonder to myself 🤔 , how they make them [Doubt]&nbsp;.And I got my answer = \"After Effects\" (AE) is the best software recommended.However, I then realised that u ne","text":"$Adobe(ADBE)$... I has been curious about it for awhile now. I knows Adobe is good[Like] , but for some reasons I keeps forgetting to add it into my favourite list, hahaha[Facepalm] .Today, I finally remembered to add it into my favourite list[Grin] .$Adobe(ADBE)$ is basically a needs in this world. It's considered one of the best of the best software out there[Grin] . I know this because I'm someone who is quite interested in computing & those interesting software[Surprised] .After seeing those cool 😎 ppls making amazing videos out there, I also wonder to myself 🤔 , how they make them [Doubt] .And I got my answer = \"After Effects\" (AE) is the best software recommended.However, I then realised that u ne","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":2,"essential":2,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9084677757","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":0,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2432,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9087324330,"gmtCreate":1650959888255,"gmtModify":1676534823336,"author":{"id":"3571557586397050","authorId":"3571557586397050","name":"AhOng","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e3edadf648d1a9539369c3fdbd0e0a61","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3571557586397050","idStr":"3571557586397050"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Goofing&nbsp;","listText":"Goofing&nbsp;","text":"Goofing","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9087324330","repostId":"2230112012","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2744,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":887579969,"gmtCreate":1632088190251,"gmtModify":1676530695870,"author":{"id":"3571557586397050","authorId":"3571557586397050","name":"AhOng","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e3edadf648d1a9539369c3fdbd0e0a61","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3571557586397050","idStr":"3571557586397050"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/FICO\">$Fair Isaac Corp(FICO)$</a>patience&nbsp;","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/FICO\">$Fair Isaac Corp(FICO)$</a>patience&nbsp;","text":"$Fair Isaac Corp(FICO)$patience","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":16,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/887579969","repostId":"353293745","repostType":1,"repost":{"id":353293745,"gmtCreate":1616498223087,"gmtModify":1704794867322,"author":{"id":"3436310715787496","authorId":"3436310715787496","name":"金思汇闻","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/569b7e391b67b52cb16b8b7a3531f1be","crmLevel":4,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3436310715787496","idStr":"3436310715787496"},"themes":[],"title":"FICO，一個有價值觀的偉大企業(十年十倍股系列五)","htmlText":"我們現在看到的那些強大而受人尊重的公司，大多是因爲公司不僅在商業取得成功，而且在改變人類生活方式和推動社會進步上取得的巨大成就從而引發人們的關注。美國的<a target=\"_blank\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AAPL\">$蘋果(AAPL)$</a>&nbsp;蘋果，&nbsp;微軟，谷歌，亞馬遜，中國的阿里，<a target=\"_blank\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/00700\">$騰訊控股(00700)$</a>&nbsp;騰訊，無不如此。然而在美國也有這麼一家公司對於全球金融系統有着至關重要影響的公司，但公司的市值僅僅不到摩根大通的4%，阿里巴巴的2%，貴州茅臺的4%。這家公司就是Fair Isaac Corporation，也就是大家常說的<a target=\"_blank\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/FICO\">$Fair Isaac Corp(FICO)$</a>&nbsp;FICO。公司背景1956年，工程師 Bill Fair和數學家Earl Isaac在三藩市創立了Fair Isaac Corporation（FICO），公司在1958年推了世界第一款個人信用積分系統，通過與美國三大徵信公司的數據合作（EQUIFAX、EXPERIAN、TRANSUNION），公司將個人的信用相關的活動作爲輸入，通過獨有的算法，將每個人的信用轉化成一個3位數的積分，積分從300到850分不等，積分越高就說明你的信用越好。對於一個注重個人信用的商業社會來講，高信用的價值不言而喻。在70年代，FICO起步的年代裏，美國的種族歧視尤爲嚴重，銀行對於金融服務的對象往往會有着天生的偏見。FICO推出的個人信用積分系統，極大的降低了金融服務的種族歧視，促進了社會的進步。而FICO積分在金融領域","listText":"我們現在看到的那些強大而受人尊重的公司，大多是因爲公司不僅在商業取得成功，而且在改變人類生活方式和推動社會進步上取得的巨大成就從而引發人們的關注。美國的<a target=\"_blank\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AAPL\">$蘋果(AAPL)$</a>&nbsp;蘋果，&nbsp;微軟，谷歌，亞馬遜，中國的阿里，<a target=\"_blank\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/00700\">$騰訊控股(00700)$</a>&nbsp;騰訊，無不如此。然而在美國也有這麼一家公司對於全球金融系統有着至關重要影響的公司，但公司的市值僅僅不到摩根大通的4%，阿里巴巴的2%，貴州茅臺的4%。這家公司就是Fair Isaac Corporation，也就是大家常說的<a target=\"_blank\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/FICO\">$Fair Isaac Corp(FICO)$</a>&nbsp;FICO。公司背景1956年，工程師 Bill Fair和數學家Earl Isaac在三藩市創立了Fair Isaac Corporation（FICO），公司在1958年推了世界第一款個人信用積分系統，通過與美國三大徵信公司的數據合作（EQUIFAX、EXPERIAN、TRANSUNION），公司將個人的信用相關的活動作爲輸入，通過獨有的算法，將每個人的信用轉化成一個3位數的積分，積分從300到850分不等，積分越高就說明你的信用越好。對於一個注重個人信用的商業社會來講，高信用的價值不言而喻。在70年代，FICO起步的年代裏，美國的種族歧視尤爲嚴重，銀行對於金融服務的對象往往會有着天生的偏見。FICO推出的個人信用積分系統，極大的降低了金融服務的種族歧視，促進了社會的進步。而FICO積分在金融領域","text":"我們現在看到的那些強大而受人尊重的公司，大多是因爲公司不僅在商業取得成功，而且在改變人類生活方式和推動社會進步上取得的巨大成就從而引發人們的關注。美國的$蘋果(AAPL)$ 蘋果， 微軟，谷歌，亞馬遜，中國的阿里，$騰訊控股(00700)$ 騰訊，無不如此。然而在美國也有這麼一家公司對於全球金融系統有着至關重要影響的公司，但公司的市值僅僅不到摩根大通的4%，阿里巴巴的2%，貴州茅臺的4%。這家公司就是Fair Isaac Corporation，也就是大家常說的$Fair Isaac Corp(FICO)$ FICO。公司背景1956年，工程師 Bill Fair和數學家Earl Isaac在三藩市創立了Fair Isaac Corporation（FICO），公司在1958年推了世界第一款個人信用積分系統，通過與美國三大徵信公司的數據合作（EQUIFAX、EXPERIAN、TRANSUNION），公司將個人的信用相關的活動作爲輸入，通過獨有的算法，將每個人的信用轉化成一個3位數的積分，積分從300到850分不等，積分越高就說明你的信用越好。對於一個注重個人信用的商業社會來講，高信用的價值不言而喻。在70年代，FICO起步的年代裏，美國的種族歧視尤爲嚴重，銀行對於金融服務的對象往往會有着天生的偏見。FICO推出的個人信用積分系統，極大的降低了金融服務的種族歧視，促進了社會的進步。而FICO積分在金融領域","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2816c88d7e37a752d58b1325bb475cb8","width":"335","height":"159"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":2,"paper":2,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/353293745","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":0,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":9,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2959,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":887839346,"gmtCreate":1632015252585,"gmtModify":1676530686310,"author":{"id":"3571557586397050","authorId":"3571557586397050","name":"AhOng","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e3edadf648d1a9539369c3fdbd0e0a61","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3571557586397050","idStr":"3571557586397050"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a 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href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/ULTA\">$Ulta Salon(ULTA)$</a>US10 away from prediction of 420","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/ULTA\">$Ulta Salon(ULTA)$</a>US10 away from prediction of 420","text":"$Ulta Salon(ULTA)$US10 away from prediction of 420","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ed95cfe34c8c28db58037b670551988a","width":"1242","height":"2151"}],"top":1,"highlighted":2,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":14,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/837787058","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2187,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":895745436,"gmtCreate":1628775848125,"gmtModify":1676529850780,"author":{"id":"3571557586397050","authorId":"3571557586397050","name":"AhOng","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e3edadf648d1a9539369c3fdbd0e0a61","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3571557586397050","idStr":"3571557586397050"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/ULTA\">$Ulta Salon(ULTA)$</a>420 in 3 weeks","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/ULTA\">$Ulta Salon(ULTA)$</a>420 in 3 weeks","text":"$Ulta Salon(ULTA)$420 in 3 weeks","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9e4fdca68bab9599b54eb6ac4e827bd2","width":"1242","height":"2151"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":2,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/895745436","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1105,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":125355948,"gmtCreate":1624660215984,"gmtModify":1703842852543,"author":{"id":"3571557586397050","authorId":"3571557586397050","name":"AhOng","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e3edadf648d1a9539369c3fdbd0e0a61","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3571557586397050","idStr":"3571557586397050"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Sell when high?&nbsp;","listText":"Sell when high?&nbsp;","text":"Sell when 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700","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":2,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/120122862","repostId":"1102555489","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":678,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":165651647,"gmtCreate":1624138258089,"gmtModify":1703829196427,"author":{"id":"3571557586397050","authorId":"3571557586397050","name":"AhOng","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e3edadf648d1a9539369c3fdbd0e0a61","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3571557586397050","idStr":"3571557586397050"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Very good performance&nbsp;","listText":"Very good performance&nbsp;","text":"Very good performance","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":2,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":17,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/165651647","repostId":"2144702770","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"2144702770","kind":"highlight","pubTimestamp":1624244088,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/2144702770?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2021-06-21 10:54","market":"hk","language":"zh","title":"A surge of 18 times in 10 years! Did you miss out on the lucrative dividends of tech stocks?","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2144702770","media":"新浪财经综合","summary":"港股科技股市值近10年来呈井喷之势，恒生资讯科技业指数市值由10年前（2011年6月）不足1万亿元，10年间暴增1800%至超17万亿元，并一举超过恒生金融业指数15.73万亿元的市值的市值，雄踞港股","content":"<p>The market value of the Hong Kong technology stock market has shown a blowout trend in the past 10 years. The market value of the Hang Seng Information Technology Industry Index has surged by 1,800% from less than 1 trillion yuan 10 years ago (June 2011) to over 17 trillion yuan in 10 years, surpassing the market value of the Hang Seng Financial Industry Index of 15.73 trillion yuan in one fell swoop, ranking first in the market value of all industries in Hong Kong stocks!</p><p>The overall steady expansion of the Hong Kong stock market</p><p>Changes in the market value of the three major industry indexes of Hong Kong stocks in the past 10 years (see chart below).<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6da34a6fd16e9aaad4a45a0705a50187\" tg-width=\"549\" tg-height=\"419\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">Data source: Wind</p><p>At the same time, the total market value of the main board of Hong Kong stocks has increased from about 20 trillion Hong Kong dollars 10 years ago to over 50 trillion Hong Kong dollars.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/623fb4d1a2b1422cabfb3a7f8c65af7c\" tg-width=\"796\" tg-height=\"690\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">Data source: Wind</p><p>The main reason for the increase in market value is the substantial expansion of listed companies in Hong Kong stocks. The number of listed companies has increased from 1,448 10 years ago to nearly 2,600 today. At the same time, the Hang Seng Index, which was once dominated by financial and real estate stocks, saw a relatively limited increase, only about 20% in ten years.</p><p>The number of companies listed on Hong Kong stocks is shown in the figure below.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3cc6565025f2f3abf895088cfcf29da7\" tg-width=\"789\" tg-height=\"223\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>Judging from the proportion of market value of various industry indexes, the proportion of Hang Seng Information Technology Industry Index (accounting for the total market value of companies selected in the Hang Seng series of industry indexes) has exploded from 3% in June 2011 to the latest 25%!</p><p>The old economic sector is in the doldrums</p><p>The three weighted old economic sectors of finance, real estate, and energy obviously underperformed the market, and even energy is no longer a weighted sector.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/546bcd2e116e4cc22cdd0cf3edebf61d\" tg-width=\"584\" tg-height=\"472\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5dd31eaef02347d31d36a54b4594ed2a\" tg-width=\"562\" tg-height=\"522\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">Data source: Wind</p><p>The Hang Seng Financial Industry Index has increased from 11 trillion yuan 10 years ago to less than 16 trillion yuan latest. However, the proportion of the Hang Seng Financial Industry Index has dropped significantly, from 46% to 25%, which is the industry with the largest decline.</p><p>Hong Kong local heavyweights Cheung Kong, Sun Hung Kai,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/01972\">Swire Properties</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/00017\">New World Development</a>The real estate index that gathered together also performed weakly, and the market value share dropped from 10% to 9%.</p><p>In addition, the downturn in oil prices in the past 10 years has also caused the market value of the Hang Seng Energy Industry Index to decline from 4.8 trillion yuan to 2.1 trillion yuan. In the past 10 years, it has not increased but halved, and the proportion of market value has dropped sharply from 18% to 3%.<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4b27148417ef1d600426d51d4c161bda\" tg-width=\"537\" tg-height=\"431\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>The Choice of the Times and the Reform of HKEx</p><p>The past 10 years can be said to be the golden decade for Chinese technology companies. Ali,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/00700\">Tencent</a>The two heroes have grown explosively, and their market value has increased to a behemoth of 5 trillion yuan. Meituan and Xiaomi were unknown ten years ago, but Meituan has become a technology leader with a market value of nearly 2 trillion yuan, and Xiaomi has also grown to a smart home ecological leader with a market value of 700 billion yuan.<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/JD\">JD.com</a>From years of losses to today's stable profits, the market value has reached trillions.<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BIDU\">Baidu</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NTES\">NetEase</a>A little less coquettish, although not as good as the explosive growth of the first decade of this century, it is steady and steady to live up to the trust of the times.</p><p>The strong development of the short video industry in recent years has created Kuaishou,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BILI\">Bilibili</a>Waiting for the rise of video leaders. In addition, according to media reports in April this year, ByteDance has submitted an underwriter's employment letter to the Hong Kong Stock Exchange and started the listing process in Hong Kong, with a valuation of US $400 billion. ByteDance, a phenomenal blockbuster company, will land on the Hong Kong stock market in the near future, and there is still considerable room for growth in the value of the Hong Kong technology stock market in the future.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2e3dfd73fe60381e50e44793dfc84464\" tg-width=\"570\" tg-height=\"412\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">On the one hand, the times have given rich dividends to technology stocks, and on the other hand, the Hong Kong Stock Exchange has learned from the bitter experience and reformed itself.</p><p>Hong Kong Stock Exchange missed in 2014<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BABA\">Alibaba</a>Later, at the end of 2017, it finally made its biggest change in more than 20 years-releasing the structure of different rights for the same shares and the listing of biological companies that have not yet been profitable.</p><p>It is no exaggeration to say that starting from 2018, it will be the beginning of a new era for Hong Kong stocks. A large number of technology leaders who have missed the Hong Kong stock market before have chosen secondary listing in Hong Kong, including Alibaba, Baidu, JD.com, NetEase and other established technology leaders. It also allows upstarts Meituan, Xiaomi, Kuaishou, etc. to choose Hong Kong as the first listing location. Today's Hong Kong stock market is an indispensable market for investing in China's technology industry!</p>","source":"highlight_sina","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>A surge of 18 times in 10 years! Did you miss out on the lucrative dividends of tech stocks?</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nA surge of 18 times in 10 years! Did you miss out on the lucrative dividends of tech stocks?\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">新浪财经综合</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-06-21 10:54</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>The market value of the Hong Kong technology stock market has shown a blowout trend in the past 10 years. The market value of the Hang Seng Information Technology Industry Index has surged by 1,800% from less than 1 trillion yuan 10 years ago (June 2011) to over 17 trillion yuan in 10 years, surpassing the market value of the Hang Seng Financial Industry Index of 15.73 trillion yuan in one fell swoop, ranking first in the market value of all industries in Hong Kong stocks!</p><p>The overall steady expansion of the Hong Kong stock market</p><p>Changes in the market value of the three major industry indexes of Hong Kong stocks in the past 10 years (see chart below).<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6da34a6fd16e9aaad4a45a0705a50187\" tg-width=\"549\" tg-height=\"419\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">Data source: Wind</p><p>At the same time, the total market value of the main board of Hong Kong stocks has increased from about 20 trillion Hong Kong dollars 10 years ago to over 50 trillion Hong Kong dollars.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/623fb4d1a2b1422cabfb3a7f8c65af7c\" tg-width=\"796\" tg-height=\"690\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">Data source: Wind</p><p>The main reason for the increase in market value is the substantial expansion of listed companies in Hong Kong stocks. The number of listed companies has increased from 1,448 10 years ago to nearly 2,600 today. At the same time, the Hang Seng Index, which was once dominated by financial and real estate stocks, saw a relatively limited increase, only about 20% in ten years.</p><p>The number of companies listed on Hong Kong stocks is shown in the figure below.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3cc6565025f2f3abf895088cfcf29da7\" tg-width=\"789\" tg-height=\"223\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>Judging from the proportion of market value of various industry indexes, the proportion of Hang Seng Information Technology Industry Index (accounting for the total market value of companies selected in the Hang Seng series of industry indexes) has exploded from 3% in June 2011 to the latest 25%!</p><p>The old economic sector is in the doldrums</p><p>The three weighted old economic sectors of finance, real estate, and energy obviously underperformed the market, and even energy is no longer a weighted sector.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/546bcd2e116e4cc22cdd0cf3edebf61d\" tg-width=\"584\" tg-height=\"472\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5dd31eaef02347d31d36a54b4594ed2a\" tg-width=\"562\" tg-height=\"522\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">Data source: Wind</p><p>The Hang Seng Financial Industry Index has increased from 11 trillion yuan 10 years ago to less than 16 trillion yuan latest. However, the proportion of the Hang Seng Financial Industry Index has dropped significantly, from 46% to 25%, which is the industry with the largest decline.</p><p>Hong Kong local heavyweights Cheung Kong, Sun Hung Kai,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/01972\">Swire Properties</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/00017\">New World Development</a>The real estate index that gathered together also performed weakly, and the market value share dropped from 10% to 9%.</p><p>In addition, the downturn in oil prices in the past 10 years has also caused the market value of the Hang Seng Energy Industry Index to decline from 4.8 trillion yuan to 2.1 trillion yuan. In the past 10 years, it has not increased but halved, and the proportion of market value has dropped sharply from 18% to 3%.<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4b27148417ef1d600426d51d4c161bda\" tg-width=\"537\" tg-height=\"431\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>The Choice of the Times and the Reform of HKEx</p><p>The past 10 years can be said to be the golden decade for Chinese technology companies. Ali,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/00700\">Tencent</a>The two heroes have grown explosively, and their market value has increased to a behemoth of 5 trillion yuan. Meituan and Xiaomi were unknown ten years ago, but Meituan has become a technology leader with a market value of nearly 2 trillion yuan, and Xiaomi has also grown to a smart home ecological leader with a market value of 700 billion yuan.<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/JD\">JD.com</a>From years of losses to today's stable profits, the market value has reached trillions.<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BIDU\">Baidu</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NTES\">NetEase</a>A little less coquettish, although not as good as the explosive growth of the first decade of this century, it is steady and steady to live up to the trust of the times.</p><p>The strong development of the short video industry in recent years has created Kuaishou,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BILI\">Bilibili</a>Waiting for the rise of video leaders. In addition, according to media reports in April this year, ByteDance has submitted an underwriter's employment letter to the Hong Kong Stock Exchange and started the listing process in Hong Kong, with a valuation of US $400 billion. ByteDance, a phenomenal blockbuster company, will land on the Hong Kong stock market in the near future, and there is still considerable room for growth in the value of the Hong Kong technology stock market in the future.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2e3dfd73fe60381e50e44793dfc84464\" tg-width=\"570\" tg-height=\"412\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">On the one hand, the times have given rich dividends to technology stocks, and on the other hand, the Hong Kong Stock Exchange has learned from the bitter experience and reformed itself.</p><p>Hong Kong Stock Exchange missed in 2014<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BABA\">Alibaba</a>Later, at the end of 2017, it finally made its biggest change in more than 20 years-releasing the structure of different rights for the same shares and the listing of biological companies that have not yet been profitable.</p><p>It is no exaggeration to say that starting from 2018, it will be the beginning of a new era for Hong Kong stocks. A large number of technology leaders who have missed the Hong Kong stock market before have chosen secondary listing in Hong Kong, including Alibaba, Baidu, JD.com, NetEase and other established technology leaders. It also allows upstarts Meituan, Xiaomi, Kuaishou, etc. to choose Hong Kong as the first listing location. Today's Hong Kong stock market is an indispensable market for investing in China's technology industry!</p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> source：<a href=\"https://finance.sina.com.cn/stock/hkstock/hkstocknews/2021-06-19/doc-ikqcfnca1890926.shtml\">新浪财经综合</a></p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/753c9aba3202037bc97463c545d5d015","relate_stocks":{"HSI":"恒生指数"},"source_url":"https://finance.sina.com.cn/stock/hkstock/hkstocknews/2021-06-19/doc-ikqcfnca1890926.shtml","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/b0d1b7e8843deea78cc308b15114de44","article_id":"2144702770","content_text":"港股科技股市值近10年来呈井喷之势，恒生资讯科技业指数市值由10年前（2011年6月）不足1万亿元，10年间暴增1800%至超17万亿元，并一举超过恒生金融业指数15.73万亿元的市值的市值，雄踞港股各行业市值榜首！\n港股市场整体稳步扩张\n港股三大权重行业指数10年来市值变化（见下图）。数据来源：Wind\n与此同时，港股主板总市值由10年前的约20万亿港元增至超50万亿港元。\n数据来源：Wind\n市值增长的主要原因是港股上市公司的大幅扩张，上市公司数量由10年前的1448家增至现今的近2600家。于此同时，曾以金融、地产股为主的恒生指数涨幅则相对有限，十年间仅有约20%。\n港股上市公司数量，如下图所示。\n\n从各行业指数市值占比来看，恒生资讯科技业指数比重（占入选恒生系列行业指数的公司总市值）由2011年6月的3%爆发式增至最新的25%！\n老经济板块低迷\n金融、地产、能源这三个权重老经济板块，则明显跑输市场，甚至能源已不再是一个权重板块。\n数据来源：Wind\n恒生金融业指数由10年前的11万亿元增至最新的不足16万亿元。但恒生金融业指数比重则下滑明显，由占比46%下滑至25%，是下滑幅度最大的行业。\n香港本地重磅股长实、新鸿基、太古地产、新世界发展等扎堆的地产指数也表现较弱，市值占比从10%降至9%。\n此外，近10年油价的低迷也导致恒生能源业指数市值由4.8万亿元下滑至2.1万亿元，10年来不增反而腰斩，市值比重由18%大幅下滑至3%。\n时代选择与港交所自身改革\n近10年，可以说是中国科技公司的黄金10年，阿里、腾讯双雄爆发式成长，市值均增长至5万亿量级的庞然大物。美团、小米十年前尚名不见经传，但美团已成为市值近2万亿的科技龙头，小米也成长至市值7000亿的智能家居生态龙头。京东从连年亏损到如今稳定盈利，市值达到万亿量级。百度、网易稍逊风骚，虽不如本世纪前十年的爆发式增长，也稳扎稳打不负时代所托。\n近几年的短视频行业强势发展，造就了快手、哔哩哔哩等视频龙头的崛起。此外，据媒体今年4月报道称，字节跳动已向港交所提交了承销商聘用函，启动了赴港上市流程，估值达4000亿美元。字节跳动这一现象级重磅公司在不久的未来将登陆港股，未来港股科技股市值仍有相当增长空间。\n一边是时代给了科技股丰厚的红利，另外一边则是港交所痛定思痛，自身改革。\n港交所在2014年错失阿里巴巴后，最终在2017年末做出了其二十多年来最大的变革——放行同股不同权架构和尚未盈利的生物公司上市。\n毫不夸张的说，从2018年起，对港股来说是一个全新时代的开启。大批此前无缘港股的科技龙头在香港选择二次上市，其中包括阿里巴巴、百度、京东、网易等老牌科技龙头。也让新贵美团、小米、快手等选择香港作为首次上市地点。现今的港股市场，已是投资中国科技行业不可或缺的市场！","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"HSI":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1153,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[{"author":{"id":"3581755931051558","authorId":"3581755931051558","name":"AhCSL","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e339eef227c28073a8900c75adf5f329","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"authorIdStr":"3581755931051558","idStr":"3581755931051558"},"content":"Any suggestion?","text":"Any suggestion?","html":"Any suggestion?"}],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":168557535,"gmtCreate":1623979386127,"gmtModify":1703825302513,"author":{"id":"3571557586397050","authorId":"3571557586397050","name":"AhOng","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e3edadf648d1a9539369c3fdbd0e0a61","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3571557586397050","idStr":"3571557586397050"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/HFC\">$HollyFrontier(HFC)$</a> can buy now?","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/HFC\">$HollyFrontier(HFC)$</a> can buy now?","text":"$HollyFrontier(HFC)$ can buy now?","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7374462ad90b13e8c14b25b41f99831b","width":"1125","height":"3395"}],"top":1,"highlighted":2,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":20,"repostSize":1,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/168557535","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1528,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[{"author":{"id":"3571557586397050","authorId":"3571557586397050","name":"AhOng","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e3edadf648d1a9539369c3fdbd0e0a61","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"authorIdStr":"3571557586397050","idStr":"3571557586397050"},"content":"Let me check the chart","text":"Let me check the chart","html":"Let me check the chart"}],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":161273395,"gmtCreate":1623931995517,"gmtModify":1703823789555,"author":{"id":"3571557586397050","authorId":"3571557586397050","name":"AhOng","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e3edadf648d1a9539369c3fdbd0e0a61","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3571557586397050","idStr":"3571557586397050"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Is this good","listText":"Is this good","text":"Is this good","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e9c594715ac6585ee92d2ea08c36342d","width":"1125","height":"3150"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/161273395","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1026,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":114731077,"gmtCreate":1623104753499,"gmtModify":1704195963856,"author":{"id":"3571557586397050","authorId":"3571557586397050","name":"AhOng","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e3edadf648d1a9539369c3fdbd0e0a61","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3571557586397050","idStr":"3571557586397050"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Read","listText":"Read","text":"Read","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":2,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":18,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/114731077","repostId":"2141823276","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"2141823276","kind":"highlight","pubTimestamp":1623080428,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/2141823276?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2021-06-07 23:40","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"Bank of America: Some investment patterns in US stocks since 1928","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2141823276","media":"华尔街见闻","summary":"目前市场对于美股是否“过度繁荣”的讨论非常热烈，有投资者担心美股或因美联储政策变化而出现大规模调整。\n美国银行试图从历史数据中寻找线索。该行统计显示，自1928年的月度数据表明传统“5月卖出”的股市谚","content":"<p>At present, the market is discussing whether the U.S. stock market is \"over-prosperous\", and some investors are worried that the U.S. stock market may undergo large-scale adjustments due to changes in the Federal Reserve's policy.</p><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BAC\">Bank of America</a>Trying to find clues from historical data. The bank's statistics show that monthly data since 1928 shows that the traditional stock market proverb of \"sell in May\" is not true, and there is a high probability that U.S. stocks will experience a summer rise.</p><p><h2>The stock market proverb of \"sell in May\" doesn't hold true</h2>Bank of America said that monthly data since 1928 showed that the traditional \"sell in May\" strategy did not hold, and the S&P 500 index had a high probability of experiencing a summer rise.</p><p><b>From a monthly perspective, although the return rate in May is negative, it is an excellent periodic monthly buying point</b>: The average return in June is about 0.77%; The average return in July was 1.58%, the highest in the whole year; August returns were also pretty good, averaging 0.7%.</p><p>September was the weakest month of the year, with an average return of-1.03%.<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ffef396fe83da8fb05a1fcf928aca356\" tg-width=\"1095\" tg-height=\"760\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>The \"Presidential Market\" also confirms the law of the summer market of US stocks.</p><p><b>Statistics show that in the first year after the new US president takes office, the large-scale rebound of US stocks is usually concentrated in July-August</b>: The related rise probability in July reached 65%, and the historical average return reached 2.28%. September-October is a relatively weak month.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0ac31bf82d51f9dc069f81cb79ee98d7\" tg-width=\"1103\" tg-height=\"790\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><h2>The cross-month pattern also shows the summer rising pattern</h2>From a cross-month perspective, Bank of America statistics show that June-August is the second best three months in the whole year, with a related rising probability of 65% and an average return rate of 3.18%; The weakest 3 months of 1 year are August to October, with a 55% probability of rise, but an average return of only-0.03%</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b723af01581079a022899a5dacf947ed\" tg-width=\"1119\" tg-height=\"816\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>August-October are the weakest three months of the year.<b>This means that there is a risk of an autumn correction in U.S. stocks.</b><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9b56d223976b66649f0adb71a21b3cce\" tg-width=\"1106\" tg-height=\"802\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><h2>Higher returns in the first 10 trading days of the month</h2>In terms of short-term trading, monthly data since 1928 show that,<b>Market performance in the first 10 trading days of a single month tends to be stronger than in the last 10 trading days (except December).</b><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2d0204fb5c8b49191b3a1d854be72a01\" tg-width=\"1097\" tg-height=\"433\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><b>June and July are the months when the relevant rules are most obvious.</b>The average probability of rising in the first 10 trading days of June is 59%, with an average return of 0.71%, and the probability of rising in the last 10 trading days is 47%, with an average return of-0.01%. The probability of rising in the first 10 trading days of July is 68%, with an average return of 1.53%, and the probability of rising in the last 10 trading days is 59%, with an average return of-0.02%.<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ea32f3689760a04aa567b8b1c2daaaa1\" tg-width=\"1094\" tg-height=\"827\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><h2>U.S. stock rebound may continue</h2>Bank of America emphasized that the Bloomberg U.S. Financial Conditions Index is currently breaking through a new high, and this is precisely the leading indicator for the S&P 500 to break through a new high. This may suggest that the market will continue to rise.<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9d72ba609108e876b7927dd14251dae4\" tg-width=\"1096\" tg-height=\"751\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">Bank of America predicts that if this indicator continues to rise, the S&P 500 index is expected to gain further upward momentum and move towards the 4,400-4,500-point range.<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9c480d60762f6cae516e86860cf3bbbc\" tg-width=\"1112\" tg-height=\"749\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>","source":"wallstreetcn_api","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Bank of America: Some investment patterns in US stocks since 1928</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nBank of America: Some investment patterns in US stocks since 1928\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">华尔街见闻</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-06-07 23:40</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>At present, the market is discussing whether the U.S. stock market is \"over-prosperous\", and some investors are worried that the U.S. stock market may undergo large-scale adjustments due to changes in the Federal Reserve's policy.</p><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BAC\">Bank of America</a>Trying to find clues from historical data. The bank's statistics show that monthly data since 1928 shows that the traditional stock market proverb of \"sell in May\" is not true, and there is a high probability that U.S. stocks will experience a summer rise.</p><p><h2>The stock market proverb of \"sell in May\" doesn't hold true</h2>Bank of America said that monthly data since 1928 showed that the traditional \"sell in May\" strategy did not hold, and the S&P 500 index had a high probability of experiencing a summer rise.</p><p><b>From a monthly perspective, although the return rate in May is negative, it is an excellent periodic monthly buying point</b>: The average return in June is about 0.77%; The average return in July was 1.58%, the highest in the whole year; August returns were also pretty good, averaging 0.7%.</p><p>September was the weakest month of the year, with an average return of-1.03%.<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ffef396fe83da8fb05a1fcf928aca356\" tg-width=\"1095\" tg-height=\"760\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>The \"Presidential Market\" also confirms the law of the summer market of US stocks.</p><p><b>Statistics show that in the first year after the new US president takes office, the large-scale rebound of US stocks is usually concentrated in July-August</b>: The related rise probability in July reached 65%, and the historical average return reached 2.28%. September-October is a relatively weak month.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0ac31bf82d51f9dc069f81cb79ee98d7\" tg-width=\"1103\" tg-height=\"790\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><h2>The cross-month pattern also shows the summer rising pattern</h2>From a cross-month perspective, Bank of America statistics show that June-August is the second best three months in the whole year, with a related rising probability of 65% and an average return rate of 3.18%; The weakest 3 months of 1 year are August to October, with a 55% probability of rise, but an average return of only-0.03%</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b723af01581079a022899a5dacf947ed\" tg-width=\"1119\" tg-height=\"816\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>August-October are the weakest three months of the year.<b>This means that there is a risk of an autumn correction in U.S. stocks.</b><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9b56d223976b66649f0adb71a21b3cce\" tg-width=\"1106\" tg-height=\"802\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><h2>Higher returns in the first 10 trading days of the month</h2>In terms of short-term trading, monthly data since 1928 show that,<b>Market performance in the first 10 trading days of a single month tends to be stronger than in the last 10 trading days (except December).</b><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2d0204fb5c8b49191b3a1d854be72a01\" tg-width=\"1097\" tg-height=\"433\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><b>June and July are the months when the relevant rules are most obvious.</b>The average probability of rising in the first 10 trading days of June is 59%, with an average return of 0.71%, and the probability of rising in the last 10 trading days is 47%, with an average return of-0.01%. The probability of rising in the first 10 trading days of July is 68%, with an average return of 1.53%, and the probability of rising in the last 10 trading days is 59%, with an average return of-0.02%.<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ea32f3689760a04aa567b8b1c2daaaa1\" tg-width=\"1094\" tg-height=\"827\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><h2>U.S. stock rebound may continue</h2>Bank of America emphasized that the Bloomberg U.S. Financial Conditions Index is currently breaking through a new high, and this is precisely the leading indicator for the S&P 500 to break through a new high. This may suggest that the market will continue to rise.<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9d72ba609108e876b7927dd14251dae4\" tg-width=\"1096\" tg-height=\"751\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">Bank of America predicts that if this indicator continues to rise, the S&P 500 index is expected to gain further upward momentum and move towards the 4,400-4,500-point range.<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9c480d60762f6cae516e86860cf3bbbc\" tg-width=\"1112\" tg-height=\"749\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> source：<a href=\"https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3632326\">华尔街见闻</a></p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/271cfa4439cda1437f20c9b60f7c187d","relate_stocks":{"BAC":"美国银行"},"source_url":"https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3632326","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2141823276","content_text":"目前市场对于美股是否“过度繁荣”的讨论非常热烈，有投资者担心美股或因美联储政策变化而出现大规模调整。\n美国银行试图从历史数据中寻找线索。该行统计显示，自1928年的月度数据表明传统“5月卖出”的股市谚语并不成立，美股大概率将经历夏季上涨行情。\n“5月卖出”的股市谚语并不成立\n美国银行表示，自1928年的月度数据显示，传统的“5月卖出”的策略并不成立，标普500指数大概率经历夏季上涨行情。\n从月份角度，5月回报率虽然为负但是绝佳的阶段性月度买点：6月的平均回报率约为0.77%；7月的平均回报率为1.58%，为全年最高；8月的回报率也相当不错，平均达到0.7%。\n9月才是全年表现最弱的月度，平均回报率为-1.03%。\n“总统行情”也确认美股夏季行情的规律。\n统计显示在美国新总统上任的第1年，美股的大规模反弹通常集中在7—8月：7月相关上涨概率达到65%，历史平均回报率达到2.28%。9-10月份则是相对疲弱的月份。\n\n跨月规律也显示夏季上涨规律\n在跨月角度，美国银行统计显示，6—8月是全年中表现第2好的3个月，相关上涨概率达到65%，平均回报率达到3.18%；1年中最弱的3个月是8月至10月，上涨概率为55%，但平均回报率仅为—0.03%\n\n而8月—10月则是全年中最弱的3个月，这意味着美股存在秋季回调的风险。\n单月中的头10个交易日回报率更高\n在短线交易方面，自1928年的月度数据显示，单月的前10个交易日市场表现往往比后10个交易日更强（12月除外）。\n6、7月份是相关规律显示最为明显的月份。6月前10个交易日平均上涨概率为59%，平均回报率为0.71%，后10个交易日上涨概率为47%，平均回报率为—0.01%。7月前10个交易日上涨概率为68%，平均回报率为1.53%，后10个交易日上涨概率59%，平均回报率为-0.02%。\n美股反弹或将继续延续\n美国银行强调，目前彭博美国金融状况指数突破新高，而这恰恰是标普500指突破新高的领先性指标。这或许暗示市场将继续上行。美国银行预测认为，如果该指标继续上行，标普500指数有望获得进一步上涨动能，向4400—4500点区间迈进。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"BAC":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1207,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":114667375,"gmtCreate":1623073069097,"gmtModify":1704195465715,"author":{"id":"3571557586397050","authorId":"3571557586397050","name":"AhOng","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e3edadf648d1a9539369c3fdbd0e0a61","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3571557586397050","idStr":"3571557586397050"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Ok","listText":"Ok","text":"Ok","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":5,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/114667375","repostId":"2141004294","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"2141004294","kind":"news","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"为用户提供金融资讯、行情、数据，旨在帮助投资者理解世界，做投资决策。","home_visible":1,"media_name":"老虎资讯综合","id":"102","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba"},"pubTimestamp":1622959849,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/2141004294?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2021-06-06 14:10","market":"hk","language":"zh","title":"410 billion yuan! CATL welcomes the huge lifting of the ban, can it survive safely?","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2141004294","media":"老虎资讯综合","summary":"近日，成立十年的宁德时代迎来了其发展中的一次里程碑式跨越。6月5日，宁德时代股份盘中一度达到439.5元/股的历史最高值，最终收盘于432.21元/股，市值再度突破万亿元。此前不久的5月31日，该公司","content":"<p>Recently, Contemporary Amperex Technology Co., Limited, which was established ten years ago, ushered in a milestone leap in its development.</p><p>On June 5, Contemporary Amperex Technology Co., Limited's shares once reached an all-time high of 439.5 yuan/share, and finally closed at 432.21 yuan/share, with its market value exceeding one trillion yuan again. Not long ago, on May 31, the company's stock price soared by more than 6%, and its market value exceeded one trillion yuan for the first time, becoming a new giant that joined the A-share \"trillion yuan\" market value club with its technology manufacturing attributes.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/fcb210468635fa704b49b71271c28929\" tg-width=\"840\" tg-height=\"470\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>However, just as the market \"clapped hands and celebrated\" the Ningde era, some people saw a \"bubble\".</p><p>On the same day, Morgan Stanley downgraded Contemporary Amperex Technology Co., Limited's rating to \"underweight\" with a target price of only 251 yuan, which is equivalent to a direct 40% discount on the current stock price of more than 400 yuan.</p><p>Coincidentally, as early as November 2020, Morgan Stanley downgraded CATL's stock rating from overweight to equal weight. The reason given at that time was that the medium-term prospects of new energy batteries have basically been reflected in the stock price, and the global automobile Whether factories can launch new models that are popular in the market may not be verified until next year.</p><p>Is it high or low? Can the Ningde era standing on the \"top of the mountain\" still catch up? For investors, there are at least three hidden dangers that need attention.</p><p><b>/ 01 /</b></p><p><b>Profitability is in a downward channel</b></p><p>As the leader of the power battery industry, benefiting from the high prosperity of the industry and the high valuation premium given by the market to leading companies, Ningde Times has enjoyed the treatment of being \"favored by institutions\" since its listing, and its stock price has continued to rise.</p><p>It can be seen from the lengthening of the daily line that from the listing of the GEM on June 11, 2018, as of June 4, 2021, the company's stock price as a whole has shown a rapid upward trend. Compared with the issue price of 25.14 yuan per share at the beginning of listing, CATL's stock price has increased by 1592% in the past three years.</p><p>But behind the rising stock price, CATL's profitability continues to decline.</p><p>In 2020, the company sold 44.45 GWh of power battery systems, a year-on-year increase of 10.43%, bringing in revenue of 39.426 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 2.18%. The growth rate of revenue is not as good as the growth rate of sales, indicating that product prices are declining.</p><p>On the other hand, due to the price increase of bulk commodities since the second half of 2020, lithium carbonate and cobalt, the main raw materials produced in CATL, have increased by more than 20%, and the pressure on cost control has increased.</p><p>Revenue rose slightly and costs increased significantly, which put a certain squeeze on profits. In 2020, the gross profit margin of CATL was 27.76%, a decrease of 1.3 percentage points from 29.06% in 2019.</p><p>Node Finance checked the financial report and found that this is not the first time that the gross profit margin of CATL has declined. In fact, since its listing, Contemporary Amperex Technology Co., Limited's gross profit margin has been in a downward channel.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/221a2154223564669e02d5c5d597485c\" tg-width=\"550\" tg-height=\"392\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">Data source: Ningde Times financial report, Oriental Fortune choice</p><p>As shown in the figure above, from 2016 to 2020, the company's gross profit margin dropped from 43.7% to 27.76%, and it earned 15.94 percentage points less in five years. Compared with the status before listing, from 2014 to 2016, the company's gross profit margin increased from 25.73% to 43.7%, and its profitability differentiated significantly before and after listing.</p><p>In this regard, Contemporary Amperex Technology Co., Limited also stated in its financial report that if factors such as intensified market competition or industry policy adjustments in the future cause adverse changes in the company's product selling prices and raw material purchase prices, the company's gross profit margin will risk a decline.</p><p>In the first quarter of 2021, the company's gross profit margin was 27.28%, an increase of 2.19 percentage points from the same period last year. It has not yet returned to the gross profit margin level in the first quarter of 2019 before the outbreak, and decreased by 1.08 percentage points from the previous quarter.</p><p>At the same time, the company's ability to return shareholders has weakened, and its weighted return on equity (ROE) has dropped from 69.55% in 2016 to 11.27% in 2020.</p><p>However, this does not seem to have affected the capital market's pursuit of CATL, and the valuation is like a runaway wild horse.</p><p><b>/ 02 /</b></p><p><b>Valuation \"riding a horse\"</b></p><p>Based on the net profit of 1.954 billion yuan in the first quarter of this year, the rolling P/E corresponding to CATL is 149 times, which is the highest value in history; Calculated based on the net profit of 5.583 billion yuan in 2020, the static P/E corresponding to CATL is 179 times, which is also at the highest value in history.</p><p>Even according to the unanimous performance forecast given by securities firms, the company's net profit in 2023 is expected to be 20 billion, corresponding to 51 times the P/E, which is still a value within the five-year valuation center range.</p><p>Combined with performance, from 2016 to 2020, in five years, the net profit of Ningde Times has increased from 2.852 billion yuan to 5.583 billion yuan, less than doubled, and P/E has increased from about 23 times to 179 times at the beginning of its listing. 7 times, obviously the valuation runs faster, or there is the possibility of consuming the valuation in advance.</p><p>In 2020, the company's net profit growth rate was only 22.43% year-on-year, but with Tesla's \"hitchhiking\", the release of medium-and long-term plans for the new energy industry, the concept of carbon neutrality, etc., its stock price soared from more than 100 yuan to more than 350 yuan during the year. Yuan, an increase of more than 200%.</p><p>Compared with peers, the valuation of CATL is not cheap. Take the old rival BYD as an example. In 2020, the net profit will be 4.234 billion yuan, the market value will be about 530 billion yuan, and the static P/E will be 125 times, which is significantly lower than that of the Ningde era; Looking at Panasonic again, the net profit in 2020 is equivalent to about 10.27 billion yuan, which is 22 times the static P/E. Compared with the Ningde era, it is really as low as the dust.</p><p>What's more, even if the three major automakers with the highest A-share market value are brought in, BYD, Great Wall Motors and SAIC Motor, the combined market value of the three is 1,088.1 billion yuan. CATL has created a trillion-dollar market value with one person, which is quite tough.</p><p>Node Finance believes that since the new energy industry is in the growth stage, CATL's scale expansion advantage under its leading position is more likely to highlight the market share aggregation effect, resulting in long-term development space.</p><p>According to statistics from South Korean research institution SNEResearch, from January to April this year, global electric vehicle battery sales were 65.9 Gwh, of which CATL accounted for 32.5%.</p><p>However, as a bulk consumer product, automobiles have the characteristics of low consumption frequency and non-rigid demand. To a certain extent, this determines that the industry will enter a mature stage faster than general consumer goods such as mobile phones and home appliances, and the increase in demand is limited. With the slowdown in the growth rate of industrial chain shipments, how much valuation space does CATL have to overdraw?</p><p>Recently, Shanghai Securities and Caixin Securities both gave Contemporary Amperex Technology Co., Limited a \"cautious overweight\" or \"cautious recommendation\" rating.</p><p><b>/ 03 /</b></p><p><b>The upcoming tide of lifting the ban</b></p><p>For short-term investors, the huge wave of lifting the ban that CATL is about to usher in on June 10 requires special vigilance.</p><p>Up to now, the stock price of Ningde Times is 432.21 yuan per share, with a total market value of 1,006.8 billion yuan, making it the first trillion-dollar stock on the GEM. The market value of the lifting of the ban of 411.629 billion yuan accounts for 40.88% of the total market value of CATL. After the lifting of the ban next week, the circulation of CATL will increase by 70.18%.</p><p>The shares lifted by Ningde Times on June 10 came from five shareholders, namely Ruiting Investment, Huang Shilin, Li Ping, Dongpeng Weichuang Investment, Green Lianjun and Industrial M&A Equity Investment Fund Partnership. As of the end of the first quarter of 2021, Ruiting Investment, Huang Shilin, and Li Ping were the first, second, and fifth largest shareholders of Ningde Times respectively. Among the five shareholders of CATL who will lift the ban next week, Ruiting Investment has a market value of 247 billion yuan, Huang Shilin has a market value of 112.764 billion yuan, Li Ping has a market value of 48.386 billion yuan, and the other two shareholders have a market value of less than 2 billion yuan.</p><p>Ruiting Investment is the controlling shareholder of Ningde Times, which is 100% controlled by Zeng Yuqun, the founder and chairman of Ningde Times. Huang Shilin and Li Ping are the co-founders and vice chairmen of Ningde Times, of which Li Ping and Zeng Yuqun are persons acting in concert.</p><p><b>CATL's lifting of ban details</b></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/da24316a386ec8301036b6c656dfc6e0\" tg-width=\"1024\" tg-height=\"281\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">Generally speaking, the lifting of the ban will form shareholders' expectations to reduce their holdings, forcing short-term pressure on the stock price on the market, which is a major negative for retail investors.</p><p>So, under the huge lifting of the ban, can Ningde era stand firm at the trillion market value mark?</p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>410 billion yuan! CATL welcomes the huge lifting of the ban, can it survive safely?</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n410 billion yuan! CATL welcomes the huge lifting of the ban, can it survive safely?\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/102\">\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">老虎资讯综合 </p>\n<p class=\"h-time smaller\">2021-06-06 14:10</p>\n</div>\n</a>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>Recently, Contemporary Amperex Technology Co., Limited, which was established ten years ago, ushered in a milestone leap in its development.</p><p>On June 5, Contemporary Amperex Technology Co., Limited's shares once reached an all-time high of 439.5 yuan/share, and finally closed at 432.21 yuan/share, with its market value exceeding one trillion yuan again. Not long ago, on May 31, the company's stock price soared by more than 6%, and its market value exceeded one trillion yuan for the first time, becoming a new giant that joined the A-share \"trillion yuan\" market value club with its technology manufacturing attributes.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/fcb210468635fa704b49b71271c28929\" tg-width=\"840\" tg-height=\"470\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>However, just as the market \"clapped hands and celebrated\" the Ningde era, some people saw a \"bubble\".</p><p>On the same day, Morgan Stanley downgraded Contemporary Amperex Technology Co., Limited's rating to \"underweight\" with a target price of only 251 yuan, which is equivalent to a direct 40% discount on the current stock price of more than 400 yuan.</p><p>Coincidentally, as early as November 2020, Morgan Stanley downgraded CATL's stock rating from overweight to equal weight. The reason given at that time was that the medium-term prospects of new energy batteries have basically been reflected in the stock price, and the global automobile Whether factories can launch new models that are popular in the market may not be verified until next year.</p><p>Is it high or low? Can the Ningde era standing on the \"top of the mountain\" still catch up? For investors, there are at least three hidden dangers that need attention.</p><p><b>/ 01 /</b></p><p><b>Profitability is in a downward channel</b></p><p>As the leader of the power battery industry, benefiting from the high prosperity of the industry and the high valuation premium given by the market to leading companies, Ningde Times has enjoyed the treatment of being \"favored by institutions\" since its listing, and its stock price has continued to rise.</p><p>It can be seen from the lengthening of the daily line that from the listing of the GEM on June 11, 2018, as of June 4, 2021, the company's stock price as a whole has shown a rapid upward trend. Compared with the issue price of 25.14 yuan per share at the beginning of listing, CATL's stock price has increased by 1592% in the past three years.</p><p>But behind the rising stock price, CATL's profitability continues to decline.</p><p>In 2020, the company sold 44.45 GWh of power battery systems, a year-on-year increase of 10.43%, bringing in revenue of 39.426 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 2.18%. The growth rate of revenue is not as good as the growth rate of sales, indicating that product prices are declining.</p><p>On the other hand, due to the price increase of bulk commodities since the second half of 2020, lithium carbonate and cobalt, the main raw materials produced in CATL, have increased by more than 20%, and the pressure on cost control has increased.</p><p>Revenue rose slightly and costs increased significantly, which put a certain squeeze on profits. In 2020, the gross profit margin of CATL was 27.76%, a decrease of 1.3 percentage points from 29.06% in 2019.</p><p>Node Finance checked the financial report and found that this is not the first time that the gross profit margin of CATL has declined. In fact, since its listing, Contemporary Amperex Technology Co., Limited's gross profit margin has been in a downward channel.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/221a2154223564669e02d5c5d597485c\" tg-width=\"550\" tg-height=\"392\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">Data source: Ningde Times financial report, Oriental Fortune choice</p><p>As shown in the figure above, from 2016 to 2020, the company's gross profit margin dropped from 43.7% to 27.76%, and it earned 15.94 percentage points less in five years. Compared with the status before listing, from 2014 to 2016, the company's gross profit margin increased from 25.73% to 43.7%, and its profitability differentiated significantly before and after listing.</p><p>In this regard, Contemporary Amperex Technology Co., Limited also stated in its financial report that if factors such as intensified market competition or industry policy adjustments in the future cause adverse changes in the company's product selling prices and raw material purchase prices, the company's gross profit margin will risk a decline.</p><p>In the first quarter of 2021, the company's gross profit margin was 27.28%, an increase of 2.19 percentage points from the same period last year. It has not yet returned to the gross profit margin level in the first quarter of 2019 before the outbreak, and decreased by 1.08 percentage points from the previous quarter.</p><p>At the same time, the company's ability to return shareholders has weakened, and its weighted return on equity (ROE) has dropped from 69.55% in 2016 to 11.27% in 2020.</p><p>However, this does not seem to have affected the capital market's pursuit of CATL, and the valuation is like a runaway wild horse.</p><p><b>/ 02 /</b></p><p><b>Valuation \"riding a horse\"</b></p><p>Based on the net profit of 1.954 billion yuan in the first quarter of this year, the rolling P/E corresponding to CATL is 149 times, which is the highest value in history; Calculated based on the net profit of 5.583 billion yuan in 2020, the static P/E corresponding to CATL is 179 times, which is also at the highest value in history.</p><p>Even according to the unanimous performance forecast given by securities firms, the company's net profit in 2023 is expected to be 20 billion, corresponding to 51 times the P/E, which is still a value within the five-year valuation center range.</p><p>Combined with performance, from 2016 to 2020, in five years, the net profit of Ningde Times has increased from 2.852 billion yuan to 5.583 billion yuan, less than doubled, and P/E has increased from about 23 times to 179 times at the beginning of its listing. 7 times, obviously the valuation runs faster, or there is the possibility of consuming the valuation in advance.</p><p>In 2020, the company's net profit growth rate was only 22.43% year-on-year, but with Tesla's \"hitchhiking\", the release of medium-and long-term plans for the new energy industry, the concept of carbon neutrality, etc., its stock price soared from more than 100 yuan to more than 350 yuan during the year. Yuan, an increase of more than 200%.</p><p>Compared with peers, the valuation of CATL is not cheap. Take the old rival BYD as an example. In 2020, the net profit will be 4.234 billion yuan, the market value will be about 530 billion yuan, and the static P/E will be 125 times, which is significantly lower than that of the Ningde era; Looking at Panasonic again, the net profit in 2020 is equivalent to about 10.27 billion yuan, which is 22 times the static P/E. Compared with the Ningde era, it is really as low as the dust.</p><p>What's more, even if the three major automakers with the highest A-share market value are brought in, BYD, Great Wall Motors and SAIC Motor, the combined market value of the three is 1,088.1 billion yuan. CATL has created a trillion-dollar market value with one person, which is quite tough.</p><p>Node Finance believes that since the new energy industry is in the growth stage, CATL's scale expansion advantage under its leading position is more likely to highlight the market share aggregation effect, resulting in long-term development space.</p><p>According to statistics from South Korean research institution SNEResearch, from January to April this year, global electric vehicle battery sales were 65.9 Gwh, of which CATL accounted for 32.5%.</p><p>However, as a bulk consumer product, automobiles have the characteristics of low consumption frequency and non-rigid demand. To a certain extent, this determines that the industry will enter a mature stage faster than general consumer goods such as mobile phones and home appliances, and the increase in demand is limited. With the slowdown in the growth rate of industrial chain shipments, how much valuation space does CATL have to overdraw?</p><p>Recently, Shanghai Securities and Caixin Securities both gave Contemporary Amperex Technology Co., Limited a \"cautious overweight\" or \"cautious recommendation\" rating.</p><p><b>/ 03 /</b></p><p><b>The upcoming tide of lifting the ban</b></p><p>For short-term investors, the huge wave of lifting the ban that CATL is about to usher in on June 10 requires special vigilance.</p><p>Up to now, the stock price of Ningde Times is 432.21 yuan per share, with a total market value of 1,006.8 billion yuan, making it the first trillion-dollar stock on the GEM. The market value of the lifting of the ban of 411.629 billion yuan accounts for 40.88% of the total market value of CATL. After the lifting of the ban next week, the circulation of CATL will increase by 70.18%.</p><p>The shares lifted by Ningde Times on June 10 came from five shareholders, namely Ruiting Investment, Huang Shilin, Li Ping, Dongpeng Weichuang Investment, Green Lianjun and Industrial M&A Equity Investment Fund Partnership. As of the end of the first quarter of 2021, Ruiting Investment, Huang Shilin, and Li Ping were the first, second, and fifth largest shareholders of Ningde Times respectively. Among the five shareholders of CATL who will lift the ban next week, Ruiting Investment has a market value of 247 billion yuan, Huang Shilin has a market value of 112.764 billion yuan, Li Ping has a market value of 48.386 billion yuan, and the other two shareholders have a market value of less than 2 billion yuan.</p><p>Ruiting Investment is the controlling shareholder of Ningde Times, which is 100% controlled by Zeng Yuqun, the founder and chairman of Ningde Times. Huang Shilin and Li Ping are the co-founders and vice chairmen of Ningde Times, of which Li Ping and Zeng Yuqun are persons acting in concert.</p><p><b>CATL's lifting of ban details</b></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/da24316a386ec8301036b6c656dfc6e0\" tg-width=\"1024\" tg-height=\"281\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">Generally speaking, the lifting of the ban will form shareholders' expectations to reduce their holdings, forcing short-term pressure on the stock price on the market, which is a major negative for retail investors.</p><p>So, under the huge lifting of the ban, can Ningde era stand firm at the trillion market value mark?</p>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0a520115dfc7edeb93cc3cdf6a15df14","relate_stocks":{"300750":"宁德时代"},"is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2141004294","content_text":"近日，成立十年的宁德时代迎来了其发展中的一次里程碑式跨越。6月5日，宁德时代股份盘中一度达到439.5元/股的历史最高值，最终收盘于432.21元/股，市值再度突破万亿元。此前不久的5月31日，该公司股价放量大涨超过6％，市值首次破万亿，成为以科技制造业属性跻身A股“万亿”市值俱乐部的新巨头。不过，就在市场为宁德时代“拍手庆贺”的空档，有人却看到了“泡沫”。同一天，摩根士丹利将宁德时代评级下调至“低配”，目标价仅为251元，相当于给目前400多元的股价直接打了六折。无独有偶，早在2020年11月，大摩就曾将宁德时代的股票评级从超配下调至平配，当时给出的理由是，新能源电池的中期前景已基本反应在股价中，而且全球的汽车厂能否推出受市场欢迎的新车型情况可能要到明年才能被验证。究竟是高了还是低了？站上“山顶”的宁德时代还能不能追？对于投资者来说，至少有三重隐患是需要关注的。/ 01 /盈利能力处在下行通道作为动力电池行业的龙头，受益于行业景气度高，市场给予头部公司较高的估值溢价，宁德时代自上市以来便享受到了被机构“团宠”的待遇，簇拥其股价不断上扬。拉长日线可见，从2018年6月11日登陆创业板开始，截止2021年6月4日，公司股价整体呈快速上升趋势。相较上市之初25.14元/股的发行价，宁德时代近三年的股价涨幅达到1592%。但在股价节节走高的背后，宁德时代的盈利能力却在持续下滑。2020年，公司销售动力电池系统44.45GWh，同比增长10.43%，带来收入394.26亿元，同比增长2.18%。收入增速不及销量增速，说明产品价格在下降。另一边，囿于2020年下半年以来大宗商品涨价，宁德时代主要生产原材料中碳酸锂及钴涨幅都超过20%，成本控制压力加大。收入微涨，成本大增，对利润造成一定挤压，2020年宁德时代的毛利率为27.76%，同比2019年的29.06%减少1.3个百分点。节点财经查阅财报发现，这并不是宁德时代毛利率初次下滑。事实上，自上市后，宁德时代的毛利率便一直停留在下行通道。数据来源：宁德时代财报、东方财富choice如上图所示，2016年至2020年，公司毛利率从43.7%下降至27.76%，五年少赚15.94个百分点。对比上市前的状态，2014年至2016年，公司毛利率从25.73%提升到43.7%，其盈利能力在上市前后分化明显。对此，宁德时代也在财报中表示，若未来市场竞争加剧或行业政策调整等因素使得公司产品售价及原材料采购价格发生不利变化，公司毛利率存在下降的风险。2021年一季度，公司毛利率为27.28%，较上年同期增加2.19个百分点，尚未恢复到疫情发生前2019年一季度毛利率水平，环比则减少1.08个百分点。于此同时，公司对股东的回报能力趋弱，其加权净资产收益率（ROE）从2016年的69.55%下降至2020年11.27%。不过，这似乎都没有影响到资本市场对宁德时代的追捧，估值如脱缰的野马一路飞奔。/ 02 /估值“策马狂奔”按照今年一季度净利润19.54亿元计算，宁德时代对应的滚动市盈率为149倍，处于历史最高值；按照2020年净利润55.83亿元计算，宁德时代对应的静态市盈率为179倍，同样处于历史最高值。即使按照券商给出的一致业绩预测，公司2023年净利润预计为200亿，对应51倍市盈率，这仍是一个处在5年估值中枢区间内的数值。结合业绩，2016年-2020年，五年时间，宁德时代净利润从28.52亿元到55.83亿元，涨了不到1 倍，市盈率从上市之初约23倍到179倍，涨了接近7倍，显然估值跑的更快，或者说有提前消耗估值的可能。2020年，公司净利润同比增速不过22.43%，但搭上特斯拉的“顺风车”，叠加新能源产业中长期规划发布，碳中和概念等，其年内股价从100多元狂飙到350多元，涨幅超过200%。对比同行，宁德时代的估值更是不便宜。就拿老对手比亚迪来说，2020年净利润42.34亿元，市值约5300亿元，静态市盈率125倍，显著低于宁德时代；再看看松下，2020年净利润折合人民币约102.7亿元，静态市盈率22倍，和宁德时代一比，真的要低到尘埃里了。更甚者，就算拉来目前A股市值最高的三大主车厂，比亚迪、长城汽车和上汽集团，三者合计市值10881亿元，宁德时代以一人之力创出万亿市值，相当彪悍。节点财经认为，由于新能源行业正处在成长期，宁德时代以龙头地位下的规模扩张优势，较容易凸显出市占率聚集效应，导致发展空间被看远、看久。韩国研究机构SNEResearch统计，今年1-4月，全球电动汽车电池销量65.9Gwh，其中宁德时代占有32.5%的份额。然而，作为大宗消费品，汽车具有消费频次低，非刚需等特点，这又在一定程度上决定了该行业进入成熟期的速度要快于手机、家电等一般消费品，且需求增量有限，随着产业链出货量增速放缓，宁德时代还有多少估值空间可以透支？近期，上海证券、财信证券均给予宁德时代“谨慎增持”或“谨慎推荐”评级。/ 03 /即将到来的解禁潮对短期投资者来说，宁德时代即将于6月10日迎来的一波解禁巨浪是需要特别警惕的。截至目前，宁德时代股价为432.21元/股，总市值为10068亿元，为创业板首只万亿市值个股。4116.29亿元的解禁市值占宁德时代总市值的40.88%，下周解禁后，宁德时代流通盘将大增70.18%。宁德时代6月10日解禁的股份来自于5名股东，分别为瑞庭投资、黄世霖、李平、东鹏伟创投资、绿联君和产业并购股权投资基金合伙企业，截至2021年一季度末，瑞庭投资、黄世霖、李平分列宁德时代第一、第二、第五大股东。在宁德时代下周解禁的5个股东中，瑞庭投资解禁市值达2470亿元，黄世霖解禁市值达1127.64亿元，李平解禁市值达483.86亿元，其他两名股东解禁市值不足20亿元。瑞庭投资为宁德时代控股股东，由宁德时代创始人、董事长曾毓群100%控股，黄世霖、李平为宁德时代联合创始人、副董事长，其中李平和曾毓群为一致行动人。宁德时代解禁详细信息一般来说，解禁会形成股东减持预期，迫使盘面股价短期承压，属于对散户们的重大利空。那么，巨量解禁之下，宁德时代在万亿市值的关口能够站得稳吗？","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"300750":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":939,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":118734242,"gmtCreate":1622761732286,"gmtModify":1704190512875,"author":{"id":"3571557586397050","authorId":"3571557586397050","name":"AhOng","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e3edadf648d1a9539369c3fdbd0e0a61","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3571557586397050","idStr":"3571557586397050"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Wow... <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/DOCU\">$Docusign(DOCU)$</a>","listText":"Wow... <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/DOCU\">$Docusign(DOCU)$</a>","text":"Wow... $Docusign(DOCU)$","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/118734242","repostId":"1165343464","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1165343464","kind":"news","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"为用户提供金融资讯、行情、数据，旨在帮助投资者理解世界，做投资决策。","home_visible":1,"media_name":"老虎资讯综合","id":"102","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba"},"pubTimestamp":1622761362,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1165343464?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2021-06-04 07:02","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"DocuSign's Q1 fiscal 2022 revenue of US $469 million, net loss of US $8 million","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1165343464","media":"老虎资讯综合","summary":"6月4日，电子签名服务巨头DocuSign发布2022财年第一财季财报。财报显示，2022财年第一财季营收4.69亿美元，市场预期4.38亿美元，去年同期2.97亿美元；2022财年第一财季净亏损0.","content":"<p>On June 4, the electronic signature service giant<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/DOCU\">DocuSign</a>Release the financial report for the first quarter of fiscal year 2022. The financial report shows that revenue in the first quarter of fiscal year 2022 was US $469 million, market expectations were US $438 million, and US $297 million in the same period last year; The net loss in the first fiscal quarter of fiscal year 2022 was US $8 million, the market expected a net loss of US $40 million, and the net loss in the same period last year was US $48 million; The loss per share in the first fiscal quarter of fiscal year 2022 was US $0.04, compared with market expectations for a loss of US $0.2, and a loss of US $0.26 in the same period last year.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a2d3573459a411aad99768fbedb2c53a\" tg-width=\"1037\" tg-height=\"687\"></p><p>After the financial report was released, DocuSign's after-hours stock price rose nearly 6% to $205.99.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/dca9c27479518d5b992915151299dc4d\" tg-width=\"1302\" tg-height=\"833\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>DocuSign's Q1 fiscal 2022 revenue of US $469 million, net loss of US $8 million</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nDocuSign's Q1 fiscal 2022 revenue of US $469 million, net loss of US $8 million\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/102\">\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">老虎资讯综合 </p>\n<p class=\"h-time smaller\">2021-06-04 07:02</p>\n</div>\n</a>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>On June 4, the electronic signature service giant<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/DOCU\">DocuSign</a>Release the financial report for the first quarter of fiscal year 2022. The financial report shows that revenue in the first quarter of fiscal year 2022 was US $469 million, market expectations were US $438 million, and US $297 million in the same period last year; The net loss in the first fiscal quarter of fiscal year 2022 was US $8 million, the market expected a net loss of US $40 million, and the net loss in the same period last year was US $48 million; The loss per share in the first fiscal quarter of fiscal year 2022 was US $0.04, compared with market expectations for a loss of US $0.2, and a loss of US $0.26 in the same period last year.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a2d3573459a411aad99768fbedb2c53a\" tg-width=\"1037\" tg-height=\"687\"></p><p>After the financial report was released, DocuSign's after-hours stock price rose nearly 6% to $205.99.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/dca9c27479518d5b992915151299dc4d\" tg-width=\"1302\" tg-height=\"833\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0061efb0e1583b28e09279fa5ff76a58","relate_stocks":{"DOCU":"Docusign"},"is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1165343464","content_text":"6月4日，电子签名服务巨头DocuSign发布2022财年第一财季财报。财报显示，2022财年第一财季营收4.69亿美元，市场预期4.38亿美元，去年同期2.97亿美元；2022财年第一财季净亏损0.08亿美元，市场预期净亏损0.4亿美元，去年同期净亏损0.48亿美元；2022财年第一财季每股亏损0.04美元，市场预期亏损0.2美元，去年同期亏损0.26美元。\n\n财报发布后，DocuSign盘后股价大涨近6%，报205.99美元。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"DOCU":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":671,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0}],"hots":[{"id":168557535,"gmtCreate":1623979386127,"gmtModify":1703825302513,"author":{"id":"3571557586397050","authorId":"3571557586397050","name":"AhOng","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e3edadf648d1a9539369c3fdbd0e0a61","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3571557586397050","idStr":"3571557586397050"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/HFC\">$HollyFrontier(HFC)$</a> can buy now?","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/HFC\">$HollyFrontier(HFC)$</a> can buy now?","text":"$HollyFrontier(HFC)$ can buy now?","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7374462ad90b13e8c14b25b41f99831b","width":"1125","height":"3395"}],"top":1,"highlighted":2,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":20,"repostSize":1,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/168557535","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1528,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[{"author":{"id":"3571557586397050","authorId":"3571557586397050","name":"AhOng","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e3edadf648d1a9539369c3fdbd0e0a61","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"authorIdStr":"3571557586397050","idStr":"3571557586397050"},"content":"Let me check the chart","text":"Let me check the chart","html":"Let me check the chart"}],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":114731077,"gmtCreate":1623104753499,"gmtModify":1704195963856,"author":{"id":"3571557586397050","authorId":"3571557586397050","name":"AhOng","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e3edadf648d1a9539369c3fdbd0e0a61","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3571557586397050","idStr":"3571557586397050"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Read","listText":"Read","text":"Read","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":2,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":18,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/114731077","repostId":"2141823276","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"2141823276","kind":"highlight","pubTimestamp":1623080428,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/2141823276?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2021-06-07 23:40","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"Bank of America: Some investment patterns in US stocks since 1928","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2141823276","media":"华尔街见闻","summary":"目前市场对于美股是否“过度繁荣”的讨论非常热烈，有投资者担心美股或因美联储政策变化而出现大规模调整。\n美国银行试图从历史数据中寻找线索。该行统计显示，自1928年的月度数据表明传统“5月卖出”的股市谚","content":"<p>At present, the market is discussing whether the U.S. stock market is \"over-prosperous\", and some investors are worried that the U.S. stock market may undergo large-scale adjustments due to changes in the Federal Reserve's policy.</p><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BAC\">Bank of America</a>Trying to find clues from historical data. The bank's statistics show that monthly data since 1928 shows that the traditional stock market proverb of \"sell in May\" is not true, and there is a high probability that U.S. stocks will experience a summer rise.</p><p><h2>The stock market proverb of \"sell in May\" doesn't hold true</h2>Bank of America said that monthly data since 1928 showed that the traditional \"sell in May\" strategy did not hold, and the S&P 500 index had a high probability of experiencing a summer rise.</p><p><b>From a monthly perspective, although the return rate in May is negative, it is an excellent periodic monthly buying point</b>: The average return in June is about 0.77%; The average return in July was 1.58%, the highest in the whole year; August returns were also pretty good, averaging 0.7%.</p><p>September was the weakest month of the year, with an average return of-1.03%.<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ffef396fe83da8fb05a1fcf928aca356\" tg-width=\"1095\" tg-height=\"760\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>The \"Presidential Market\" also confirms the law of the summer market of US stocks.</p><p><b>Statistics show that in the first year after the new US president takes office, the large-scale rebound of US stocks is usually concentrated in July-August</b>: The related rise probability in July reached 65%, and the historical average return reached 2.28%. September-October is a relatively weak month.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0ac31bf82d51f9dc069f81cb79ee98d7\" tg-width=\"1103\" tg-height=\"790\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><h2>The cross-month pattern also shows the summer rising pattern</h2>From a cross-month perspective, Bank of America statistics show that June-August is the second best three months in the whole year, with a related rising probability of 65% and an average return rate of 3.18%; The weakest 3 months of 1 year are August to October, with a 55% probability of rise, but an average return of only-0.03%</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b723af01581079a022899a5dacf947ed\" tg-width=\"1119\" tg-height=\"816\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>August-October are the weakest three months of the year.<b>This means that there is a risk of an autumn correction in U.S. stocks.</b><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9b56d223976b66649f0adb71a21b3cce\" tg-width=\"1106\" tg-height=\"802\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><h2>Higher returns in the first 10 trading days of the month</h2>In terms of short-term trading, monthly data since 1928 show that,<b>Market performance in the first 10 trading days of a single month tends to be stronger than in the last 10 trading days (except December).</b><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2d0204fb5c8b49191b3a1d854be72a01\" tg-width=\"1097\" tg-height=\"433\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><b>June and July are the months when the relevant rules are most obvious.</b>The average probability of rising in the first 10 trading days of June is 59%, with an average return of 0.71%, and the probability of rising in the last 10 trading days is 47%, with an average return of-0.01%. The probability of rising in the first 10 trading days of July is 68%, with an average return of 1.53%, and the probability of rising in the last 10 trading days is 59%, with an average return of-0.02%.<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ea32f3689760a04aa567b8b1c2daaaa1\" tg-width=\"1094\" tg-height=\"827\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><h2>U.S. stock rebound may continue</h2>Bank of America emphasized that the Bloomberg U.S. Financial Conditions Index is currently breaking through a new high, and this is precisely the leading indicator for the S&P 500 to break through a new high. This may suggest that the market will continue to rise.<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9d72ba609108e876b7927dd14251dae4\" tg-width=\"1096\" tg-height=\"751\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">Bank of America predicts that if this indicator continues to rise, the S&P 500 index is expected to gain further upward momentum and move towards the 4,400-4,500-point range.<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9c480d60762f6cae516e86860cf3bbbc\" tg-width=\"1112\" tg-height=\"749\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>","source":"wallstreetcn_api","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Bank of America: Some investment patterns in US stocks since 1928</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nBank of America: Some investment patterns in US stocks since 1928\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">华尔街见闻</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-06-07 23:40</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>At present, the market is discussing whether the U.S. stock market is \"over-prosperous\", and some investors are worried that the U.S. stock market may undergo large-scale adjustments due to changes in the Federal Reserve's policy.</p><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BAC\">Bank of America</a>Trying to find clues from historical data. The bank's statistics show that monthly data since 1928 shows that the traditional stock market proverb of \"sell in May\" is not true, and there is a high probability that U.S. stocks will experience a summer rise.</p><p><h2>The stock market proverb of \"sell in May\" doesn't hold true</h2>Bank of America said that monthly data since 1928 showed that the traditional \"sell in May\" strategy did not hold, and the S&P 500 index had a high probability of experiencing a summer rise.</p><p><b>From a monthly perspective, although the return rate in May is negative, it is an excellent periodic monthly buying point</b>: The average return in June is about 0.77%; The average return in July was 1.58%, the highest in the whole year; August returns were also pretty good, averaging 0.7%.</p><p>September was the weakest month of the year, with an average return of-1.03%.<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ffef396fe83da8fb05a1fcf928aca356\" tg-width=\"1095\" tg-height=\"760\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>The \"Presidential Market\" also confirms the law of the summer market of US stocks.</p><p><b>Statistics show that in the first year after the new US president takes office, the large-scale rebound of US stocks is usually concentrated in July-August</b>: The related rise probability in July reached 65%, and the historical average return reached 2.28%. September-October is a relatively weak month.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0ac31bf82d51f9dc069f81cb79ee98d7\" tg-width=\"1103\" tg-height=\"790\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><h2>The cross-month pattern also shows the summer rising pattern</h2>From a cross-month perspective, Bank of America statistics show that June-August is the second best three months in the whole year, with a related rising probability of 65% and an average return rate of 3.18%; The weakest 3 months of 1 year are August to October, with a 55% probability of rise, but an average return of only-0.03%</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b723af01581079a022899a5dacf947ed\" tg-width=\"1119\" tg-height=\"816\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>August-October are the weakest three months of the year.<b>This means that there is a risk of an autumn correction in U.S. stocks.</b><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9b56d223976b66649f0adb71a21b3cce\" tg-width=\"1106\" tg-height=\"802\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><h2>Higher returns in the first 10 trading days of the month</h2>In terms of short-term trading, monthly data since 1928 show that,<b>Market performance in the first 10 trading days of a single month tends to be stronger than in the last 10 trading days (except December).</b><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2d0204fb5c8b49191b3a1d854be72a01\" tg-width=\"1097\" tg-height=\"433\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><b>June and July are the months when the relevant rules are most obvious.</b>The average probability of rising in the first 10 trading days of June is 59%, with an average return of 0.71%, and the probability of rising in the last 10 trading days is 47%, with an average return of-0.01%. The probability of rising in the first 10 trading days of July is 68%, with an average return of 1.53%, and the probability of rising in the last 10 trading days is 59%, with an average return of-0.02%.<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ea32f3689760a04aa567b8b1c2daaaa1\" tg-width=\"1094\" tg-height=\"827\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><h2>U.S. stock rebound may continue</h2>Bank of America emphasized that the Bloomberg U.S. Financial Conditions Index is currently breaking through a new high, and this is precisely the leading indicator for the S&P 500 to break through a new high. This may suggest that the market will continue to rise.<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9d72ba609108e876b7927dd14251dae4\" tg-width=\"1096\" tg-height=\"751\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">Bank of America predicts that if this indicator continues to rise, the S&P 500 index is expected to gain further upward momentum and move towards the 4,400-4,500-point range.<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9c480d60762f6cae516e86860cf3bbbc\" tg-width=\"1112\" tg-height=\"749\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> source：<a href=\"https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3632326\">华尔街见闻</a></p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/271cfa4439cda1437f20c9b60f7c187d","relate_stocks":{"BAC":"美国银行"},"source_url":"https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3632326","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2141823276","content_text":"目前市场对于美股是否“过度繁荣”的讨论非常热烈，有投资者担心美股或因美联储政策变化而出现大规模调整。\n美国银行试图从历史数据中寻找线索。该行统计显示，自1928年的月度数据表明传统“5月卖出”的股市谚语并不成立，美股大概率将经历夏季上涨行情。\n“5月卖出”的股市谚语并不成立\n美国银行表示，自1928年的月度数据显示，传统的“5月卖出”的策略并不成立，标普500指数大概率经历夏季上涨行情。\n从月份角度，5月回报率虽然为负但是绝佳的阶段性月度买点：6月的平均回报率约为0.77%；7月的平均回报率为1.58%，为全年最高；8月的回报率也相当不错，平均达到0.7%。\n9月才是全年表现最弱的月度，平均回报率为-1.03%。\n“总统行情”也确认美股夏季行情的规律。\n统计显示在美国新总统上任的第1年，美股的大规模反弹通常集中在7—8月：7月相关上涨概率达到65%，历史平均回报率达到2.28%。9-10月份则是相对疲弱的月份。\n\n跨月规律也显示夏季上涨规律\n在跨月角度，美国银行统计显示，6—8月是全年中表现第2好的3个月，相关上涨概率达到65%，平均回报率达到3.18%；1年中最弱的3个月是8月至10月，上涨概率为55%，但平均回报率仅为—0.03%\n\n而8月—10月则是全年中最弱的3个月，这意味着美股存在秋季回调的风险。\n单月中的头10个交易日回报率更高\n在短线交易方面，自1928年的月度数据显示，单月的前10个交易日市场表现往往比后10个交易日更强（12月除外）。\n6、7月份是相关规律显示最为明显的月份。6月前10个交易日平均上涨概率为59%，平均回报率为0.71%，后10个交易日上涨概率为47%，平均回报率为—0.01%。7月前10个交易日上涨概率为68%，平均回报率为1.53%，后10个交易日上涨概率59%，平均回报率为-0.02%。\n美股反弹或将继续延续\n美国银行强调，目前彭博美国金融状况指数突破新高，而这恰恰是标普500指突破新高的领先性指标。这或许暗示市场将继续上行。美国银行预测认为，如果该指标继续上行，标普500指数有望获得进一步上涨动能，向4400—4500点区间迈进。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"BAC":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1207,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":165651647,"gmtCreate":1624138258089,"gmtModify":1703829196427,"author":{"id":"3571557586397050","authorId":"3571557586397050","name":"AhOng","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e3edadf648d1a9539369c3fdbd0e0a61","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3571557586397050","idStr":"3571557586397050"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Very good performance&nbsp;","listText":"Very good performance&nbsp;","text":"Very good performance","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":2,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":17,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/165651647","repostId":"2144702770","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"2144702770","kind":"highlight","pubTimestamp":1624244088,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/2144702770?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2021-06-21 10:54","market":"hk","language":"zh","title":"A surge of 18 times in 10 years! Did you miss out on the lucrative dividends of tech stocks?","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2144702770","media":"新浪财经综合","summary":"港股科技股市值近10年来呈井喷之势，恒生资讯科技业指数市值由10年前（2011年6月）不足1万亿元，10年间暴增1800%至超17万亿元，并一举超过恒生金融业指数15.73万亿元的市值的市值，雄踞港股","content":"<p>The market value of the Hong Kong technology stock market has shown a blowout trend in the past 10 years. The market value of the Hang Seng Information Technology Industry Index has surged by 1,800% from less than 1 trillion yuan 10 years ago (June 2011) to over 17 trillion yuan in 10 years, surpassing the market value of the Hang Seng Financial Industry Index of 15.73 trillion yuan in one fell swoop, ranking first in the market value of all industries in Hong Kong stocks!</p><p>The overall steady expansion of the Hong Kong stock market</p><p>Changes in the market value of the three major industry indexes of Hong Kong stocks in the past 10 years (see chart below).<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6da34a6fd16e9aaad4a45a0705a50187\" tg-width=\"549\" tg-height=\"419\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">Data source: Wind</p><p>At the same time, the total market value of the main board of Hong Kong stocks has increased from about 20 trillion Hong Kong dollars 10 years ago to over 50 trillion Hong Kong dollars.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/623fb4d1a2b1422cabfb3a7f8c65af7c\" tg-width=\"796\" tg-height=\"690\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">Data source: Wind</p><p>The main reason for the increase in market value is the substantial expansion of listed companies in Hong Kong stocks. The number of listed companies has increased from 1,448 10 years ago to nearly 2,600 today. At the same time, the Hang Seng Index, which was once dominated by financial and real estate stocks, saw a relatively limited increase, only about 20% in ten years.</p><p>The number of companies listed on Hong Kong stocks is shown in the figure below.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3cc6565025f2f3abf895088cfcf29da7\" tg-width=\"789\" tg-height=\"223\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>Judging from the proportion of market value of various industry indexes, the proportion of Hang Seng Information Technology Industry Index (accounting for the total market value of companies selected in the Hang Seng series of industry indexes) has exploded from 3% in June 2011 to the latest 25%!</p><p>The old economic sector is in the doldrums</p><p>The three weighted old economic sectors of finance, real estate, and energy obviously underperformed the market, and even energy is no longer a weighted sector.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/546bcd2e116e4cc22cdd0cf3edebf61d\" tg-width=\"584\" tg-height=\"472\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5dd31eaef02347d31d36a54b4594ed2a\" tg-width=\"562\" tg-height=\"522\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">Data source: Wind</p><p>The Hang Seng Financial Industry Index has increased from 11 trillion yuan 10 years ago to less than 16 trillion yuan latest. However, the proportion of the Hang Seng Financial Industry Index has dropped significantly, from 46% to 25%, which is the industry with the largest decline.</p><p>Hong Kong local heavyweights Cheung Kong, Sun Hung Kai,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/01972\">Swire Properties</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/00017\">New World Development</a>The real estate index that gathered together also performed weakly, and the market value share dropped from 10% to 9%.</p><p>In addition, the downturn in oil prices in the past 10 years has also caused the market value of the Hang Seng Energy Industry Index to decline from 4.8 trillion yuan to 2.1 trillion yuan. In the past 10 years, it has not increased but halved, and the proportion of market value has dropped sharply from 18% to 3%.<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4b27148417ef1d600426d51d4c161bda\" tg-width=\"537\" tg-height=\"431\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>The Choice of the Times and the Reform of HKEx</p><p>The past 10 years can be said to be the golden decade for Chinese technology companies. Ali,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/00700\">Tencent</a>The two heroes have grown explosively, and their market value has increased to a behemoth of 5 trillion yuan. Meituan and Xiaomi were unknown ten years ago, but Meituan has become a technology leader with a market value of nearly 2 trillion yuan, and Xiaomi has also grown to a smart home ecological leader with a market value of 700 billion yuan.<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/JD\">JD.com</a>From years of losses to today's stable profits, the market value has reached trillions.<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BIDU\">Baidu</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NTES\">NetEase</a>A little less coquettish, although not as good as the explosive growth of the first decade of this century, it is steady and steady to live up to the trust of the times.</p><p>The strong development of the short video industry in recent years has created Kuaishou,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BILI\">Bilibili</a>Waiting for the rise of video leaders. In addition, according to media reports in April this year, ByteDance has submitted an underwriter's employment letter to the Hong Kong Stock Exchange and started the listing process in Hong Kong, with a valuation of US $400 billion. ByteDance, a phenomenal blockbuster company, will land on the Hong Kong stock market in the near future, and there is still considerable room for growth in the value of the Hong Kong technology stock market in the future.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2e3dfd73fe60381e50e44793dfc84464\" tg-width=\"570\" tg-height=\"412\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">On the one hand, the times have given rich dividends to technology stocks, and on the other hand, the Hong Kong Stock Exchange has learned from the bitter experience and reformed itself.</p><p>Hong Kong Stock Exchange missed in 2014<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BABA\">Alibaba</a>Later, at the end of 2017, it finally made its biggest change in more than 20 years-releasing the structure of different rights for the same shares and the listing of biological companies that have not yet been profitable.</p><p>It is no exaggeration to say that starting from 2018, it will be the beginning of a new era for Hong Kong stocks. A large number of technology leaders who have missed the Hong Kong stock market before have chosen secondary listing in Hong Kong, including Alibaba, Baidu, JD.com, NetEase and other established technology leaders. It also allows upstarts Meituan, Xiaomi, Kuaishou, etc. to choose Hong Kong as the first listing location. Today's Hong Kong stock market is an indispensable market for investing in China's technology industry!</p>","source":"highlight_sina","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>A surge of 18 times in 10 years! Did you miss out on the lucrative dividends of tech stocks?</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nA surge of 18 times in 10 years! Did you miss out on the lucrative dividends of tech stocks?\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">新浪财经综合</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-06-21 10:54</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>The market value of the Hong Kong technology stock market has shown a blowout trend in the past 10 years. The market value of the Hang Seng Information Technology Industry Index has surged by 1,800% from less than 1 trillion yuan 10 years ago (June 2011) to over 17 trillion yuan in 10 years, surpassing the market value of the Hang Seng Financial Industry Index of 15.73 trillion yuan in one fell swoop, ranking first in the market value of all industries in Hong Kong stocks!</p><p>The overall steady expansion of the Hong Kong stock market</p><p>Changes in the market value of the three major industry indexes of Hong Kong stocks in the past 10 years (see chart below).<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6da34a6fd16e9aaad4a45a0705a50187\" tg-width=\"549\" tg-height=\"419\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">Data source: Wind</p><p>At the same time, the total market value of the main board of Hong Kong stocks has increased from about 20 trillion Hong Kong dollars 10 years ago to over 50 trillion Hong Kong dollars.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/623fb4d1a2b1422cabfb3a7f8c65af7c\" tg-width=\"796\" tg-height=\"690\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">Data source: Wind</p><p>The main reason for the increase in market value is the substantial expansion of listed companies in Hong Kong stocks. The number of listed companies has increased from 1,448 10 years ago to nearly 2,600 today. At the same time, the Hang Seng Index, which was once dominated by financial and real estate stocks, saw a relatively limited increase, only about 20% in ten years.</p><p>The number of companies listed on Hong Kong stocks is shown in the figure below.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3cc6565025f2f3abf895088cfcf29da7\" tg-width=\"789\" tg-height=\"223\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>Judging from the proportion of market value of various industry indexes, the proportion of Hang Seng Information Technology Industry Index (accounting for the total market value of companies selected in the Hang Seng series of industry indexes) has exploded from 3% in June 2011 to the latest 25%!</p><p>The old economic sector is in the doldrums</p><p>The three weighted old economic sectors of finance, real estate, and energy obviously underperformed the market, and even energy is no longer a weighted sector.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/546bcd2e116e4cc22cdd0cf3edebf61d\" tg-width=\"584\" tg-height=\"472\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5dd31eaef02347d31d36a54b4594ed2a\" tg-width=\"562\" tg-height=\"522\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">Data source: Wind</p><p>The Hang Seng Financial Industry Index has increased from 11 trillion yuan 10 years ago to less than 16 trillion yuan latest. However, the proportion of the Hang Seng Financial Industry Index has dropped significantly, from 46% to 25%, which is the industry with the largest decline.</p><p>Hong Kong local heavyweights Cheung Kong, Sun Hung Kai,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/01972\">Swire Properties</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/00017\">New World Development</a>The real estate index that gathered together also performed weakly, and the market value share dropped from 10% to 9%.</p><p>In addition, the downturn in oil prices in the past 10 years has also caused the market value of the Hang Seng Energy Industry Index to decline from 4.8 trillion yuan to 2.1 trillion yuan. In the past 10 years, it has not increased but halved, and the proportion of market value has dropped sharply from 18% to 3%.<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4b27148417ef1d600426d51d4c161bda\" tg-width=\"537\" tg-height=\"431\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>The Choice of the Times and the Reform of HKEx</p><p>The past 10 years can be said to be the golden decade for Chinese technology companies. Ali,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/00700\">Tencent</a>The two heroes have grown explosively, and their market value has increased to a behemoth of 5 trillion yuan. Meituan and Xiaomi were unknown ten years ago, but Meituan has become a technology leader with a market value of nearly 2 trillion yuan, and Xiaomi has also grown to a smart home ecological leader with a market value of 700 billion yuan.<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/JD\">JD.com</a>From years of losses to today's stable profits, the market value has reached trillions.<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BIDU\">Baidu</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NTES\">NetEase</a>A little less coquettish, although not as good as the explosive growth of the first decade of this century, it is steady and steady to live up to the trust of the times.</p><p>The strong development of the short video industry in recent years has created Kuaishou,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BILI\">Bilibili</a>Waiting for the rise of video leaders. In addition, according to media reports in April this year, ByteDance has submitted an underwriter's employment letter to the Hong Kong Stock Exchange and started the listing process in Hong Kong, with a valuation of US $400 billion. ByteDance, a phenomenal blockbuster company, will land on the Hong Kong stock market in the near future, and there is still considerable room for growth in the value of the Hong Kong technology stock market in the future.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2e3dfd73fe60381e50e44793dfc84464\" tg-width=\"570\" tg-height=\"412\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">On the one hand, the times have given rich dividends to technology stocks, and on the other hand, the Hong Kong Stock Exchange has learned from the bitter experience and reformed itself.</p><p>Hong Kong Stock Exchange missed in 2014<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BABA\">Alibaba</a>Later, at the end of 2017, it finally made its biggest change in more than 20 years-releasing the structure of different rights for the same shares and the listing of biological companies that have not yet been profitable.</p><p>It is no exaggeration to say that starting from 2018, it will be the beginning of a new era for Hong Kong stocks. A large number of technology leaders who have missed the Hong Kong stock market before have chosen secondary listing in Hong Kong, including Alibaba, Baidu, JD.com, NetEase and other established technology leaders. It also allows upstarts Meituan, Xiaomi, Kuaishou, etc. to choose Hong Kong as the first listing location. Today's Hong Kong stock market is an indispensable market for investing in China's technology industry!</p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> source：<a href=\"https://finance.sina.com.cn/stock/hkstock/hkstocknews/2021-06-19/doc-ikqcfnca1890926.shtml\">新浪财经综合</a></p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/753c9aba3202037bc97463c545d5d015","relate_stocks":{"HSI":"恒生指数"},"source_url":"https://finance.sina.com.cn/stock/hkstock/hkstocknews/2021-06-19/doc-ikqcfnca1890926.shtml","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/b0d1b7e8843deea78cc308b15114de44","article_id":"2144702770","content_text":"港股科技股市值近10年来呈井喷之势，恒生资讯科技业指数市值由10年前（2011年6月）不足1万亿元，10年间暴增1800%至超17万亿元，并一举超过恒生金融业指数15.73万亿元的市值的市值，雄踞港股各行业市值榜首！\n港股市场整体稳步扩张\n港股三大权重行业指数10年来市值变化（见下图）。数据来源：Wind\n与此同时，港股主板总市值由10年前的约20万亿港元增至超50万亿港元。\n数据来源：Wind\n市值增长的主要原因是港股上市公司的大幅扩张，上市公司数量由10年前的1448家增至现今的近2600家。于此同时，曾以金融、地产股为主的恒生指数涨幅则相对有限，十年间仅有约20%。\n港股上市公司数量，如下图所示。\n\n从各行业指数市值占比来看，恒生资讯科技业指数比重（占入选恒生系列行业指数的公司总市值）由2011年6月的3%爆发式增至最新的25%！\n老经济板块低迷\n金融、地产、能源这三个权重老经济板块，则明显跑输市场，甚至能源已不再是一个权重板块。\n数据来源：Wind\n恒生金融业指数由10年前的11万亿元增至最新的不足16万亿元。但恒生金融业指数比重则下滑明显，由占比46%下滑至25%，是下滑幅度最大的行业。\n香港本地重磅股长实、新鸿基、太古地产、新世界发展等扎堆的地产指数也表现较弱，市值占比从10%降至9%。\n此外，近10年油价的低迷也导致恒生能源业指数市值由4.8万亿元下滑至2.1万亿元，10年来不增反而腰斩，市值比重由18%大幅下滑至3%。\n时代选择与港交所自身改革\n近10年，可以说是中国科技公司的黄金10年，阿里、腾讯双雄爆发式成长，市值均增长至5万亿量级的庞然大物。美团、小米十年前尚名不见经传，但美团已成为市值近2万亿的科技龙头，小米也成长至市值7000亿的智能家居生态龙头。京东从连年亏损到如今稳定盈利，市值达到万亿量级。百度、网易稍逊风骚，虽不如本世纪前十年的爆发式增长，也稳扎稳打不负时代所托。\n近几年的短视频行业强势发展，造就了快手、哔哩哔哩等视频龙头的崛起。此外，据媒体今年4月报道称，字节跳动已向港交所提交了承销商聘用函，启动了赴港上市流程，估值达4000亿美元。字节跳动这一现象级重磅公司在不久的未来将登陆港股，未来港股科技股市值仍有相当增长空间。\n一边是时代给了科技股丰厚的红利，另外一边则是港交所痛定思痛，自身改革。\n港交所在2014年错失阿里巴巴后，最终在2017年末做出了其二十多年来最大的变革——放行同股不同权架构和尚未盈利的生物公司上市。\n毫不夸张的说，从2018年起，对港股来说是一个全新时代的开启。大批此前无缘港股的科技龙头在香港选择二次上市，其中包括阿里巴巴、百度、京东、网易等老牌科技龙头。也让新贵美团、小米、快手等选择香港作为首次上市地点。现今的港股市场，已是投资中国科技行业不可或缺的市场！","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"HSI":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1153,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[{"author":{"id":"3581755931051558","authorId":"3581755931051558","name":"AhCSL","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e339eef227c28073a8900c75adf5f329","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"authorIdStr":"3581755931051558","idStr":"3581755931051558"},"content":"Any suggestion?","text":"Any suggestion?","html":"Any suggestion?"}],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":887579969,"gmtCreate":1632088190251,"gmtModify":1676530695870,"author":{"id":"3571557586397050","authorId":"3571557586397050","name":"AhOng","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e3edadf648d1a9539369c3fdbd0e0a61","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3571557586397050","idStr":"3571557586397050"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/FICO\">$Fair Isaac Corp(FICO)$</a>patience&nbsp;","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/FICO\">$Fair Isaac Corp(FICO)$</a>patience&nbsp;","text":"$Fair Isaac Corp(FICO)$patience","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":16,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/887579969","repostId":"353293745","repostType":1,"repost":{"id":353293745,"gmtCreate":1616498223087,"gmtModify":1704794867322,"author":{"id":"3436310715787496","authorId":"3436310715787496","name":"金思汇闻","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/569b7e391b67b52cb16b8b7a3531f1be","crmLevel":4,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3436310715787496","idStr":"3436310715787496"},"themes":[],"title":"FICO，一個有價值觀的偉大企業(十年十倍股系列五)","htmlText":"我們現在看到的那些強大而受人尊重的公司，大多是因爲公司不僅在商業取得成功，而且在改變人類生活方式和推動社會進步上取得的巨大成就從而引發人們的關注。美國的<a target=\"_blank\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AAPL\">$蘋果(AAPL)$</a>&nbsp;蘋果，&nbsp;微軟，谷歌，亞馬遜，中國的阿里，<a target=\"_blank\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/00700\">$騰訊控股(00700)$</a>&nbsp;騰訊，無不如此。然而在美國也有這麼一家公司對於全球金融系統有着至關重要影響的公司，但公司的市值僅僅不到摩根大通的4%，阿里巴巴的2%，貴州茅臺的4%。這家公司就是Fair Isaac Corporation，也就是大家常說的<a target=\"_blank\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/FICO\">$Fair Isaac Corp(FICO)$</a>&nbsp;FICO。公司背景1956年，工程師 Bill Fair和數學家Earl Isaac在三藩市創立了Fair Isaac Corporation（FICO），公司在1958年推了世界第一款個人信用積分系統，通過與美國三大徵信公司的數據合作（EQUIFAX、EXPERIAN、TRANSUNION），公司將個人的信用相關的活動作爲輸入，通過獨有的算法，將每個人的信用轉化成一個3位數的積分，積分從300到850分不等，積分越高就說明你的信用越好。對於一個注重個人信用的商業社會來講，高信用的價值不言而喻。在70年代，FICO起步的年代裏，美國的種族歧視尤爲嚴重，銀行對於金融服務的對象往往會有着天生的偏見。FICO推出的個人信用積分系統，極大的降低了金融服務的種族歧視，促進了社會的進步。而FICO積分在金融領域","listText":"我們現在看到的那些強大而受人尊重的公司，大多是因爲公司不僅在商業取得成功，而且在改變人類生活方式和推動社會進步上取得的巨大成就從而引發人們的關注。美國的<a target=\"_blank\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AAPL\">$蘋果(AAPL)$</a>&nbsp;蘋果，&nbsp;微軟，谷歌，亞馬遜，中國的阿里，<a target=\"_blank\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/00700\">$騰訊控股(00700)$</a>&nbsp;騰訊，無不如此。然而在美國也有這麼一家公司對於全球金融系統有着至關重要影響的公司，但公司的市值僅僅不到摩根大通的4%，阿里巴巴的2%，貴州茅臺的4%。這家公司就是Fair Isaac Corporation，也就是大家常說的<a target=\"_blank\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/FICO\">$Fair Isaac Corp(FICO)$</a>&nbsp;FICO。公司背景1956年，工程師 Bill Fair和數學家Earl Isaac在三藩市創立了Fair Isaac Corporation（FICO），公司在1958年推了世界第一款個人信用積分系統，通過與美國三大徵信公司的數據合作（EQUIFAX、EXPERIAN、TRANSUNION），公司將個人的信用相關的活動作爲輸入，通過獨有的算法，將每個人的信用轉化成一個3位數的積分，積分從300到850分不等，積分越高就說明你的信用越好。對於一個注重個人信用的商業社會來講，高信用的價值不言而喻。在70年代，FICO起步的年代裏，美國的種族歧視尤爲嚴重，銀行對於金融服務的對象往往會有着天生的偏見。FICO推出的個人信用積分系統，極大的降低了金融服務的種族歧視，促進了社會的進步。而FICO積分在金融領域","text":"我們現在看到的那些強大而受人尊重的公司，大多是因爲公司不僅在商業取得成功，而且在改變人類生活方式和推動社會進步上取得的巨大成就從而引發人們的關注。美國的$蘋果(AAPL)$ 蘋果， 微軟，谷歌，亞馬遜，中國的阿里，$騰訊控股(00700)$ 騰訊，無不如此。然而在美國也有這麼一家公司對於全球金融系統有着至關重要影響的公司，但公司的市值僅僅不到摩根大通的4%，阿里巴巴的2%，貴州茅臺的4%。這家公司就是Fair Isaac Corporation，也就是大家常說的$Fair Isaac Corp(FICO)$ FICO。公司背景1956年，工程師 Bill Fair和數學家Earl Isaac在三藩市創立了Fair Isaac Corporation（FICO），公司在1958年推了世界第一款個人信用積分系統，通過與美國三大徵信公司的數據合作（EQUIFAX、EXPERIAN、TRANSUNION），公司將個人的信用相關的活動作爲輸入，通過獨有的算法，將每個人的信用轉化成一個3位數的積分，積分從300到850分不等，積分越高就說明你的信用越好。對於一個注重個人信用的商業社會來講，高信用的價值不言而喻。在70年代，FICO起步的年代裏，美國的種族歧視尤爲嚴重，銀行對於金融服務的對象往往會有着天生的偏見。FICO推出的個人信用積分系統，極大的降低了金融服務的種族歧視，促進了社會的進步。而FICO積分在金融領域","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2816c88d7e37a752d58b1325bb475cb8","width":"335","height":"159"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":2,"paper":2,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/353293745","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":0,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":9,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2959,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":887331727,"gmtCreate":1631972782969,"gmtModify":1676530680513,"author":{"id":"3571557586397050","authorId":"3571557586397050","name":"AhOng","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e3edadf648d1a9539369c3fdbd0e0a61","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3571557586397050","idStr":"3571557586397050"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"This is good","listText":"This is good","text":"This is good","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/db2ecb7c6bc2a02d30dde92a1f48a649","width":"1125","height":"3094"}],"top":1,"highlighted":2,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":16,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/887331727","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2975,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":837787058,"gmtCreate":1629928710574,"gmtModify":1676530172098,"author":{"id":"3571557586397050","authorId":"3571557586397050","name":"AhOng","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e3edadf648d1a9539369c3fdbd0e0a61","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3571557586397050","idStr":"3571557586397050"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/ULTA\">$Ulta Salon(ULTA)$</a>US10 away from prediction of 420","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/ULTA\">$Ulta Salon(ULTA)$</a>US10 away from prediction of 420","text":"$Ulta Salon(ULTA)$US10 away from prediction of 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href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/LMND\">$Lemonade, Inc.(LMND)$</a> back from dead?","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/LMND\">$Lemonade, Inc.(LMND)$</a> back from dead?","text":"$Lemonade, Inc.(LMND)$ back from dead?","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/486c2407073a9c02ca2197152b9d993a","width":"1125","height":"3277"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":5,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/357311988","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":802,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":125355948,"gmtCreate":1624660215984,"gmtModify":1703842852543,"author":{"id":"3571557586397050","authorId":"3571557586397050","name":"AhOng","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e3edadf648d1a9539369c3fdbd0e0a61","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3571557586397050","idStr":"3571557586397050"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Sell when high?&nbsp;","listText":"Sell when high?&nbsp;","text":"Sell when high?","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":5,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/125355948","repostId":"2146026823","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":824,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":114667375,"gmtCreate":1623073069097,"gmtModify":1704195465715,"author":{"id":"3571557586397050","authorId":"3571557586397050","name":"AhOng","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e3edadf648d1a9539369c3fdbd0e0a61","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3571557586397050","idStr":"3571557586397050"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Ok","listText":"Ok","text":"Ok","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":5,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/114667375","repostId":"2141004294","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"2141004294","kind":"news","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"为用户提供金融资讯、行情、数据，旨在帮助投资者理解世界，做投资决策。","home_visible":1,"media_name":"老虎资讯综合","id":"102","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba"},"pubTimestamp":1622959849,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/2141004294?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2021-06-06 14:10","market":"hk","language":"zh","title":"410 billion yuan! CATL welcomes the huge lifting of the ban, can it survive safely?","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2141004294","media":"老虎资讯综合","summary":"近日，成立十年的宁德时代迎来了其发展中的一次里程碑式跨越。6月5日，宁德时代股份盘中一度达到439.5元/股的历史最高值，最终收盘于432.21元/股，市值再度突破万亿元。此前不久的5月31日，该公司","content":"<p>Recently, Contemporary Amperex Technology Co., Limited, which was established ten years ago, ushered in a milestone leap in its development.</p><p>On June 5, Contemporary Amperex Technology Co., Limited's shares once reached an all-time high of 439.5 yuan/share, and finally closed at 432.21 yuan/share, with its market value exceeding one trillion yuan again. Not long ago, on May 31, the company's stock price soared by more than 6%, and its market value exceeded one trillion yuan for the first time, becoming a new giant that joined the A-share \"trillion yuan\" market value club with its technology manufacturing attributes.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/fcb210468635fa704b49b71271c28929\" tg-width=\"840\" tg-height=\"470\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>However, just as the market \"clapped hands and celebrated\" the Ningde era, some people saw a \"bubble\".</p><p>On the same day, Morgan Stanley downgraded Contemporary Amperex Technology Co., Limited's rating to \"underweight\" with a target price of only 251 yuan, which is equivalent to a direct 40% discount on the current stock price of more than 400 yuan.</p><p>Coincidentally, as early as November 2020, Morgan Stanley downgraded CATL's stock rating from overweight to equal weight. The reason given at that time was that the medium-term prospects of new energy batteries have basically been reflected in the stock price, and the global automobile Whether factories can launch new models that are popular in the market may not be verified until next year.</p><p>Is it high or low? Can the Ningde era standing on the \"top of the mountain\" still catch up? For investors, there are at least three hidden dangers that need attention.</p><p><b>/ 01 /</b></p><p><b>Profitability is in a downward channel</b></p><p>As the leader of the power battery industry, benefiting from the high prosperity of the industry and the high valuation premium given by the market to leading companies, Ningde Times has enjoyed the treatment of being \"favored by institutions\" since its listing, and its stock price has continued to rise.</p><p>It can be seen from the lengthening of the daily line that from the listing of the GEM on June 11, 2018, as of June 4, 2021, the company's stock price as a whole has shown a rapid upward trend. Compared with the issue price of 25.14 yuan per share at the beginning of listing, CATL's stock price has increased by 1592% in the past three years.</p><p>But behind the rising stock price, CATL's profitability continues to decline.</p><p>In 2020, the company sold 44.45 GWh of power battery systems, a year-on-year increase of 10.43%, bringing in revenue of 39.426 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 2.18%. The growth rate of revenue is not as good as the growth rate of sales, indicating that product prices are declining.</p><p>On the other hand, due to the price increase of bulk commodities since the second half of 2020, lithium carbonate and cobalt, the main raw materials produced in CATL, have increased by more than 20%, and the pressure on cost control has increased.</p><p>Revenue rose slightly and costs increased significantly, which put a certain squeeze on profits. In 2020, the gross profit margin of CATL was 27.76%, a decrease of 1.3 percentage points from 29.06% in 2019.</p><p>Node Finance checked the financial report and found that this is not the first time that the gross profit margin of CATL has declined. In fact, since its listing, Contemporary Amperex Technology Co., Limited's gross profit margin has been in a downward channel.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/221a2154223564669e02d5c5d597485c\" tg-width=\"550\" tg-height=\"392\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">Data source: Ningde Times financial report, Oriental Fortune choice</p><p>As shown in the figure above, from 2016 to 2020, the company's gross profit margin dropped from 43.7% to 27.76%, and it earned 15.94 percentage points less in five years. Compared with the status before listing, from 2014 to 2016, the company's gross profit margin increased from 25.73% to 43.7%, and its profitability differentiated significantly before and after listing.</p><p>In this regard, Contemporary Amperex Technology Co., Limited also stated in its financial report that if factors such as intensified market competition or industry policy adjustments in the future cause adverse changes in the company's product selling prices and raw material purchase prices, the company's gross profit margin will risk a decline.</p><p>In the first quarter of 2021, the company's gross profit margin was 27.28%, an increase of 2.19 percentage points from the same period last year. It has not yet returned to the gross profit margin level in the first quarter of 2019 before the outbreak, and decreased by 1.08 percentage points from the previous quarter.</p><p>At the same time, the company's ability to return shareholders has weakened, and its weighted return on equity (ROE) has dropped from 69.55% in 2016 to 11.27% in 2020.</p><p>However, this does not seem to have affected the capital market's pursuit of CATL, and the valuation is like a runaway wild horse.</p><p><b>/ 02 /</b></p><p><b>Valuation \"riding a horse\"</b></p><p>Based on the net profit of 1.954 billion yuan in the first quarter of this year, the rolling P/E corresponding to CATL is 149 times, which is the highest value in history; Calculated based on the net profit of 5.583 billion yuan in 2020, the static P/E corresponding to CATL is 179 times, which is also at the highest value in history.</p><p>Even according to the unanimous performance forecast given by securities firms, the company's net profit in 2023 is expected to be 20 billion, corresponding to 51 times the P/E, which is still a value within the five-year valuation center range.</p><p>Combined with performance, from 2016 to 2020, in five years, the net profit of Ningde Times has increased from 2.852 billion yuan to 5.583 billion yuan, less than doubled, and P/E has increased from about 23 times to 179 times at the beginning of its listing. 7 times, obviously the valuation runs faster, or there is the possibility of consuming the valuation in advance.</p><p>In 2020, the company's net profit growth rate was only 22.43% year-on-year, but with Tesla's \"hitchhiking\", the release of medium-and long-term plans for the new energy industry, the concept of carbon neutrality, etc., its stock price soared from more than 100 yuan to more than 350 yuan during the year. Yuan, an increase of more than 200%.</p><p>Compared with peers, the valuation of CATL is not cheap. Take the old rival BYD as an example. In 2020, the net profit will be 4.234 billion yuan, the market value will be about 530 billion yuan, and the static P/E will be 125 times, which is significantly lower than that of the Ningde era; Looking at Panasonic again, the net profit in 2020 is equivalent to about 10.27 billion yuan, which is 22 times the static P/E. Compared with the Ningde era, it is really as low as the dust.</p><p>What's more, even if the three major automakers with the highest A-share market value are brought in, BYD, Great Wall Motors and SAIC Motor, the combined market value of the three is 1,088.1 billion yuan. CATL has created a trillion-dollar market value with one person, which is quite tough.</p><p>Node Finance believes that since the new energy industry is in the growth stage, CATL's scale expansion advantage under its leading position is more likely to highlight the market share aggregation effect, resulting in long-term development space.</p><p>According to statistics from South Korean research institution SNEResearch, from January to April this year, global electric vehicle battery sales were 65.9 Gwh, of which CATL accounted for 32.5%.</p><p>However, as a bulk consumer product, automobiles have the characteristics of low consumption frequency and non-rigid demand. To a certain extent, this determines that the industry will enter a mature stage faster than general consumer goods such as mobile phones and home appliances, and the increase in demand is limited. With the slowdown in the growth rate of industrial chain shipments, how much valuation space does CATL have to overdraw?</p><p>Recently, Shanghai Securities and Caixin Securities both gave Contemporary Amperex Technology Co., Limited a \"cautious overweight\" or \"cautious recommendation\" rating.</p><p><b>/ 03 /</b></p><p><b>The upcoming tide of lifting the ban</b></p><p>For short-term investors, the huge wave of lifting the ban that CATL is about to usher in on June 10 requires special vigilance.</p><p>Up to now, the stock price of Ningde Times is 432.21 yuan per share, with a total market value of 1,006.8 billion yuan, making it the first trillion-dollar stock on the GEM. The market value of the lifting of the ban of 411.629 billion yuan accounts for 40.88% of the total market value of CATL. After the lifting of the ban next week, the circulation of CATL will increase by 70.18%.</p><p>The shares lifted by Ningde Times on June 10 came from five shareholders, namely Ruiting Investment, Huang Shilin, Li Ping, Dongpeng Weichuang Investment, Green Lianjun and Industrial M&A Equity Investment Fund Partnership. As of the end of the first quarter of 2021, Ruiting Investment, Huang Shilin, and Li Ping were the first, second, and fifth largest shareholders of Ningde Times respectively. Among the five shareholders of CATL who will lift the ban next week, Ruiting Investment has a market value of 247 billion yuan, Huang Shilin has a market value of 112.764 billion yuan, Li Ping has a market value of 48.386 billion yuan, and the other two shareholders have a market value of less than 2 billion yuan.</p><p>Ruiting Investment is the controlling shareholder of Ningde Times, which is 100% controlled by Zeng Yuqun, the founder and chairman of Ningde Times. Huang Shilin and Li Ping are the co-founders and vice chairmen of Ningde Times, of which Li Ping and Zeng Yuqun are persons acting in concert.</p><p><b>CATL's lifting of ban details</b></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/da24316a386ec8301036b6c656dfc6e0\" tg-width=\"1024\" tg-height=\"281\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">Generally speaking, the lifting of the ban will form shareholders' expectations to reduce their holdings, forcing short-term pressure on the stock price on the market, which is a major negative for retail investors.</p><p>So, under the huge lifting of the ban, can Ningde era stand firm at the trillion market value mark?</p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>410 billion yuan! CATL welcomes the huge lifting of the ban, can it survive safely?</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n410 billion yuan! CATL welcomes the huge lifting of the ban, can it survive safely?\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/102\">\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">老虎资讯综合 </p>\n<p class=\"h-time smaller\">2021-06-06 14:10</p>\n</div>\n</a>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>Recently, Contemporary Amperex Technology Co., Limited, which was established ten years ago, ushered in a milestone leap in its development.</p><p>On June 5, Contemporary Amperex Technology Co., Limited's shares once reached an all-time high of 439.5 yuan/share, and finally closed at 432.21 yuan/share, with its market value exceeding one trillion yuan again. Not long ago, on May 31, the company's stock price soared by more than 6%, and its market value exceeded one trillion yuan for the first time, becoming a new giant that joined the A-share \"trillion yuan\" market value club with its technology manufacturing attributes.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/fcb210468635fa704b49b71271c28929\" tg-width=\"840\" tg-height=\"470\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>However, just as the market \"clapped hands and celebrated\" the Ningde era, some people saw a \"bubble\".</p><p>On the same day, Morgan Stanley downgraded Contemporary Amperex Technology Co., Limited's rating to \"underweight\" with a target price of only 251 yuan, which is equivalent to a direct 40% discount on the current stock price of more than 400 yuan.</p><p>Coincidentally, as early as November 2020, Morgan Stanley downgraded CATL's stock rating from overweight to equal weight. The reason given at that time was that the medium-term prospects of new energy batteries have basically been reflected in the stock price, and the global automobile Whether factories can launch new models that are popular in the market may not be verified until next year.</p><p>Is it high or low? Can the Ningde era standing on the \"top of the mountain\" still catch up? For investors, there are at least three hidden dangers that need attention.</p><p><b>/ 01 /</b></p><p><b>Profitability is in a downward channel</b></p><p>As the leader of the power battery industry, benefiting from the high prosperity of the industry and the high valuation premium given by the market to leading companies, Ningde Times has enjoyed the treatment of being \"favored by institutions\" since its listing, and its stock price has continued to rise.</p><p>It can be seen from the lengthening of the daily line that from the listing of the GEM on June 11, 2018, as of June 4, 2021, the company's stock price as a whole has shown a rapid upward trend. Compared with the issue price of 25.14 yuan per share at the beginning of listing, CATL's stock price has increased by 1592% in the past three years.</p><p>But behind the rising stock price, CATL's profitability continues to decline.</p><p>In 2020, the company sold 44.45 GWh of power battery systems, a year-on-year increase of 10.43%, bringing in revenue of 39.426 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 2.18%. The growth rate of revenue is not as good as the growth rate of sales, indicating that product prices are declining.</p><p>On the other hand, due to the price increase of bulk commodities since the second half of 2020, lithium carbonate and cobalt, the main raw materials produced in CATL, have increased by more than 20%, and the pressure on cost control has increased.</p><p>Revenue rose slightly and costs increased significantly, which put a certain squeeze on profits. In 2020, the gross profit margin of CATL was 27.76%, a decrease of 1.3 percentage points from 29.06% in 2019.</p><p>Node Finance checked the financial report and found that this is not the first time that the gross profit margin of CATL has declined. In fact, since its listing, Contemporary Amperex Technology Co., Limited's gross profit margin has been in a downward channel.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/221a2154223564669e02d5c5d597485c\" tg-width=\"550\" tg-height=\"392\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">Data source: Ningde Times financial report, Oriental Fortune choice</p><p>As shown in the figure above, from 2016 to 2020, the company's gross profit margin dropped from 43.7% to 27.76%, and it earned 15.94 percentage points less in five years. Compared with the status before listing, from 2014 to 2016, the company's gross profit margin increased from 25.73% to 43.7%, and its profitability differentiated significantly before and after listing.</p><p>In this regard, Contemporary Amperex Technology Co., Limited also stated in its financial report that if factors such as intensified market competition or industry policy adjustments in the future cause adverse changes in the company's product selling prices and raw material purchase prices, the company's gross profit margin will risk a decline.</p><p>In the first quarter of 2021, the company's gross profit margin was 27.28%, an increase of 2.19 percentage points from the same period last year. It has not yet returned to the gross profit margin level in the first quarter of 2019 before the outbreak, and decreased by 1.08 percentage points from the previous quarter.</p><p>At the same time, the company's ability to return shareholders has weakened, and its weighted return on equity (ROE) has dropped from 69.55% in 2016 to 11.27% in 2020.</p><p>However, this does not seem to have affected the capital market's pursuit of CATL, and the valuation is like a runaway wild horse.</p><p><b>/ 02 /</b></p><p><b>Valuation \"riding a horse\"</b></p><p>Based on the net profit of 1.954 billion yuan in the first quarter of this year, the rolling P/E corresponding to CATL is 149 times, which is the highest value in history; Calculated based on the net profit of 5.583 billion yuan in 2020, the static P/E corresponding to CATL is 179 times, which is also at the highest value in history.</p><p>Even according to the unanimous performance forecast given by securities firms, the company's net profit in 2023 is expected to be 20 billion, corresponding to 51 times the P/E, which is still a value within the five-year valuation center range.</p><p>Combined with performance, from 2016 to 2020, in five years, the net profit of Ningde Times has increased from 2.852 billion yuan to 5.583 billion yuan, less than doubled, and P/E has increased from about 23 times to 179 times at the beginning of its listing. 7 times, obviously the valuation runs faster, or there is the possibility of consuming the valuation in advance.</p><p>In 2020, the company's net profit growth rate was only 22.43% year-on-year, but with Tesla's \"hitchhiking\", the release of medium-and long-term plans for the new energy industry, the concept of carbon neutrality, etc., its stock price soared from more than 100 yuan to more than 350 yuan during the year. Yuan, an increase of more than 200%.</p><p>Compared with peers, the valuation of CATL is not cheap. Take the old rival BYD as an example. In 2020, the net profit will be 4.234 billion yuan, the market value will be about 530 billion yuan, and the static P/E will be 125 times, which is significantly lower than that of the Ningde era; Looking at Panasonic again, the net profit in 2020 is equivalent to about 10.27 billion yuan, which is 22 times the static P/E. Compared with the Ningde era, it is really as low as the dust.</p><p>What's more, even if the three major automakers with the highest A-share market value are brought in, BYD, Great Wall Motors and SAIC Motor, the combined market value of the three is 1,088.1 billion yuan. CATL has created a trillion-dollar market value with one person, which is quite tough.</p><p>Node Finance believes that since the new energy industry is in the growth stage, CATL's scale expansion advantage under its leading position is more likely to highlight the market share aggregation effect, resulting in long-term development space.</p><p>According to statistics from South Korean research institution SNEResearch, from January to April this year, global electric vehicle battery sales were 65.9 Gwh, of which CATL accounted for 32.5%.</p><p>However, as a bulk consumer product, automobiles have the characteristics of low consumption frequency and non-rigid demand. To a certain extent, this determines that the industry will enter a mature stage faster than general consumer goods such as mobile phones and home appliances, and the increase in demand is limited. With the slowdown in the growth rate of industrial chain shipments, how much valuation space does CATL have to overdraw?</p><p>Recently, Shanghai Securities and Caixin Securities both gave Contemporary Amperex Technology Co., Limited a \"cautious overweight\" or \"cautious recommendation\" rating.</p><p><b>/ 03 /</b></p><p><b>The upcoming tide of lifting the ban</b></p><p>For short-term investors, the huge wave of lifting the ban that CATL is about to usher in on June 10 requires special vigilance.</p><p>Up to now, the stock price of Ningde Times is 432.21 yuan per share, with a total market value of 1,006.8 billion yuan, making it the first trillion-dollar stock on the GEM. The market value of the lifting of the ban of 411.629 billion yuan accounts for 40.88% of the total market value of CATL. After the lifting of the ban next week, the circulation of CATL will increase by 70.18%.</p><p>The shares lifted by Ningde Times on June 10 came from five shareholders, namely Ruiting Investment, Huang Shilin, Li Ping, Dongpeng Weichuang Investment, Green Lianjun and Industrial M&A Equity Investment Fund Partnership. As of the end of the first quarter of 2021, Ruiting Investment, Huang Shilin, and Li Ping were the first, second, and fifth largest shareholders of Ningde Times respectively. Among the five shareholders of CATL who will lift the ban next week, Ruiting Investment has a market value of 247 billion yuan, Huang Shilin has a market value of 112.764 billion yuan, Li Ping has a market value of 48.386 billion yuan, and the other two shareholders have a market value of less than 2 billion yuan.</p><p>Ruiting Investment is the controlling shareholder of Ningde Times, which is 100% controlled by Zeng Yuqun, the founder and chairman of Ningde Times. Huang Shilin and Li Ping are the co-founders and vice chairmen of Ningde Times, of which Li Ping and Zeng Yuqun are persons acting in concert.</p><p><b>CATL's lifting of ban details</b></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/da24316a386ec8301036b6c656dfc6e0\" tg-width=\"1024\" tg-height=\"281\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">Generally speaking, the lifting of the ban will form shareholders' expectations to reduce their holdings, forcing short-term pressure on the stock price on the market, which is a major negative for retail investors.</p><p>So, under the huge lifting of the ban, can Ningde era stand firm at the trillion market value mark?</p>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0a520115dfc7edeb93cc3cdf6a15df14","relate_stocks":{"300750":"宁德时代"},"is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2141004294","content_text":"近日，成立十年的宁德时代迎来了其发展中的一次里程碑式跨越。6月5日，宁德时代股份盘中一度达到439.5元/股的历史最高值，最终收盘于432.21元/股，市值再度突破万亿元。此前不久的5月31日，该公司股价放量大涨超过6％，市值首次破万亿，成为以科技制造业属性跻身A股“万亿”市值俱乐部的新巨头。不过，就在市场为宁德时代“拍手庆贺”的空档，有人却看到了“泡沫”。同一天，摩根士丹利将宁德时代评级下调至“低配”，目标价仅为251元，相当于给目前400多元的股价直接打了六折。无独有偶，早在2020年11月，大摩就曾将宁德时代的股票评级从超配下调至平配，当时给出的理由是，新能源电池的中期前景已基本反应在股价中，而且全球的汽车厂能否推出受市场欢迎的新车型情况可能要到明年才能被验证。究竟是高了还是低了？站上“山顶”的宁德时代还能不能追？对于投资者来说，至少有三重隐患是需要关注的。/ 01 /盈利能力处在下行通道作为动力电池行业的龙头，受益于行业景气度高，市场给予头部公司较高的估值溢价，宁德时代自上市以来便享受到了被机构“团宠”的待遇，簇拥其股价不断上扬。拉长日线可见，从2018年6月11日登陆创业板开始，截止2021年6月4日，公司股价整体呈快速上升趋势。相较上市之初25.14元/股的发行价，宁德时代近三年的股价涨幅达到1592%。但在股价节节走高的背后，宁德时代的盈利能力却在持续下滑。2020年，公司销售动力电池系统44.45GWh，同比增长10.43%，带来收入394.26亿元，同比增长2.18%。收入增速不及销量增速，说明产品价格在下降。另一边，囿于2020年下半年以来大宗商品涨价，宁德时代主要生产原材料中碳酸锂及钴涨幅都超过20%，成本控制压力加大。收入微涨，成本大增，对利润造成一定挤压，2020年宁德时代的毛利率为27.76%，同比2019年的29.06%减少1.3个百分点。节点财经查阅财报发现，这并不是宁德时代毛利率初次下滑。事实上，自上市后，宁德时代的毛利率便一直停留在下行通道。数据来源：宁德时代财报、东方财富choice如上图所示，2016年至2020年，公司毛利率从43.7%下降至27.76%，五年少赚15.94个百分点。对比上市前的状态，2014年至2016年，公司毛利率从25.73%提升到43.7%，其盈利能力在上市前后分化明显。对此，宁德时代也在财报中表示，若未来市场竞争加剧或行业政策调整等因素使得公司产品售价及原材料采购价格发生不利变化，公司毛利率存在下降的风险。2021年一季度，公司毛利率为27.28%，较上年同期增加2.19个百分点，尚未恢复到疫情发生前2019年一季度毛利率水平，环比则减少1.08个百分点。于此同时，公司对股东的回报能力趋弱，其加权净资产收益率（ROE）从2016年的69.55%下降至2020年11.27%。不过，这似乎都没有影响到资本市场对宁德时代的追捧，估值如脱缰的野马一路飞奔。/ 02 /估值“策马狂奔”按照今年一季度净利润19.54亿元计算，宁德时代对应的滚动市盈率为149倍，处于历史最高值；按照2020年净利润55.83亿元计算，宁德时代对应的静态市盈率为179倍，同样处于历史最高值。即使按照券商给出的一致业绩预测，公司2023年净利润预计为200亿，对应51倍市盈率，这仍是一个处在5年估值中枢区间内的数值。结合业绩，2016年-2020年，五年时间，宁德时代净利润从28.52亿元到55.83亿元，涨了不到1 倍，市盈率从上市之初约23倍到179倍，涨了接近7倍，显然估值跑的更快，或者说有提前消耗估值的可能。2020年，公司净利润同比增速不过22.43%，但搭上特斯拉的“顺风车”，叠加新能源产业中长期规划发布，碳中和概念等，其年内股价从100多元狂飙到350多元，涨幅超过200%。对比同行，宁德时代的估值更是不便宜。就拿老对手比亚迪来说，2020年净利润42.34亿元，市值约5300亿元，静态市盈率125倍，显著低于宁德时代；再看看松下，2020年净利润折合人民币约102.7亿元，静态市盈率22倍，和宁德时代一比，真的要低到尘埃里了。更甚者，就算拉来目前A股市值最高的三大主车厂，比亚迪、长城汽车和上汽集团，三者合计市值10881亿元，宁德时代以一人之力创出万亿市值，相当彪悍。节点财经认为，由于新能源行业正处在成长期，宁德时代以龙头地位下的规模扩张优势，较容易凸显出市占率聚集效应，导致发展空间被看远、看久。韩国研究机构SNEResearch统计，今年1-4月，全球电动汽车电池销量65.9Gwh，其中宁德时代占有32.5%的份额。然而，作为大宗消费品，汽车具有消费频次低，非刚需等特点，这又在一定程度上决定了该行业进入成熟期的速度要快于手机、家电等一般消费品，且需求增量有限，随着产业链出货量增速放缓，宁德时代还有多少估值空间可以透支？近期，上海证券、财信证券均给予宁德时代“谨慎增持”或“谨慎推荐”评级。/ 03 /即将到来的解禁潮对短期投资者来说，宁德时代即将于6月10日迎来的一波解禁巨浪是需要特别警惕的。截至目前，宁德时代股价为432.21元/股，总市值为10068亿元，为创业板首只万亿市值个股。4116.29亿元的解禁市值占宁德时代总市值的40.88%，下周解禁后，宁德时代流通盘将大增70.18%。宁德时代6月10日解禁的股份来自于5名股东，分别为瑞庭投资、黄世霖、李平、东鹏伟创投资、绿联君和产业并购股权投资基金合伙企业，截至2021年一季度末，瑞庭投资、黄世霖、李平分列宁德时代第一、第二、第五大股东。在宁德时代下周解禁的5个股东中，瑞庭投资解禁市值达2470亿元，黄世霖解禁市值达1127.64亿元，李平解禁市值达483.86亿元，其他两名股东解禁市值不足20亿元。瑞庭投资为宁德时代控股股东，由宁德时代创始人、董事长曾毓群100%控股，黄世霖、李平为宁德时代联合创始人、副董事长，其中李平和曾毓群为一致行动人。宁德时代解禁详细信息一般来说，解禁会形成股东减持预期，迫使盘面股价短期承压，属于对散户们的重大利空。那么，巨量解禁之下，宁德时代在万亿市值的关口能够站得稳吗？","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"300750":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":939,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":343430064,"gmtCreate":1617746846158,"gmtModify":1704702466074,"author":{"id":"3571557586397050","authorId":"3571557586397050","name":"AhOng","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e3edadf648d1a9539369c3fdbd0e0a61","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3571557586397050","idStr":"3571557586397050"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Worth to keep","listText":"Worth to keep","text":"Worth to keep","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":5,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/343430064","repostId":"1154652115","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1154652115","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1617678962,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1154652115?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2021-04-06 11:16","market":"sh","language":"zh","title":"Historical Verification: April Could Be the Easiest Month to Make Money","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1154652115","media":"金十数据","summary":"1990年以来，多数资产在4月份的平均回报都比较强劲。","content":"<p>Author: Xiao Yanyan</p><p>The seasonality of assets in April is very obvious. As shown in the chart below, since 1990, the average return of most assets in April has been relatively strong.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d146620dcada676e6bc554ff9ab5f97f\" tg-width=\"1106\" tg-height=\"813\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><b>① U.S. interest rate volatility is expected to decline in April</b></p><p>The first thing to say is U.S. bond yields at the forefront, because this factor has been dominating the market this year. Heading into April, it may give the market a big sigh of relief. Because according to seasonality,<b>Volatility in U.S. interest rates is likely to fall in April</b>。</p><p>In nine of the past 10 years, a volatility measure based on 3-month-10-year at-the-money swap options fell in April. There's little reason to think that the market won't see a similar gamma downside this time around. Therefore, Citi strategists recommend that clients hedge their risk by selling a type of straddle.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2873f9c0cb990ed349202a13bec4763d\" tg-width=\"960\" tg-height=\"520\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>Michael Chang, strategist at Qi Group, said in a note that one possible explanation for the decline in interest rate volatility in April was the Easter holiday, as \"overall market participant activity may decline.\"</p><p>In addition, he also pointed out that Japan's potential purchase capital flow after the end of the fiscal year on March 31 will bring potential downward pressure on bond yields, which is also a negative factor for volatility.</p><p>To be sure, there may also be a brief rebound in volatility during this period, including the non-farm payrolls report, and any progress in the U.S. infrastructure spending plan may create obstacles to lower U.S. bond yields.</p><p><b>② The U.S. stock market will usher in a \"bull April\"</b></p><p>Statistics show that the S&P 500 index performed best in April, and risk assets generally performed well.</p><p><b>Over the past 20 years, the S&P 500 has risen by an average of 1.74% in April, including a 12.7% surge last year. In the last 15 years, the S&P 500 only recorded a decline of-0.75% in April 2012.</b>, and it rose sharply from January to March before the decline.</p><p>Ryan Detrick, chief market strategist at LPL Financial, analyzed that the stock market has recorded gains in April in 14 of the past 15 years, and April has been the second best month for the U.S. stock market since 1950.</p><p>Morgan Stanley predicts based on statistical data,<b>The third week of April was the best week for global stocks of the year</b>。 This seasonality is expected to continue this year, with positive factors including strong Q1 earnings, still moderate inflation and slowing U.S. bond yields.</p><p>But CFRA chief investment strategist Sam Stovall cautioned that some cyclical stocks may have risen too much, and stocks in the energy, industrial and financial sectors may pause their gains.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/102f006de0b31003c8afbbdc3489cdd5\" tg-width=\"986\" tg-height=\"579\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><b>③ The pound performed best in April</b></p><p><b>April was also the best month for the pound since 2000, with an average rise of 1.29%. In 16 of the past 20 years, the pound has risen in April.</b></p><p>Today the UK leads the vaccination rate, and the Brexit haze continues to dissipate, providing a solid foundation for the pound to continue to rise.</p><p>Research from Nomura and Bank of America suggests the pound will continue to be the best-performing currency in 2021 if seasonality continues to take effect.</p><p>Research shows that the pound rose against all G10 currencies except the Australian dollar in April,<b>GBP/USD has risen by an average of nearly 2% in April in recent years</b>。 If it can rise by 1% in April this year, GBP/USD will break through 1.39; If it can rise by nearly 2%, it will re-stand at 1.40.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ce5d8692bfdc69b7dd8112277d66ec43\" tg-width=\"1268\" tg-height=\"520\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/300b95fd89c26471b2102d64c1ae6a1e\" tg-width=\"1229\" tg-height=\"515\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><b>④ Crude oil performed the second best year in April</b></p><p>OPEC + 's meeting last week decided that its performance against oil prices this month was crucial, and it was overall seen as positive for oil prices. Crude oil also enjoys good seasonality in April,<b>The average April gain over the past 20 years is 3.37%</b>, was the second best month.</p><p>Technically, crude had an opportunity to consolidate in March and remove some overbought pressure. Markets are also shrugging off the reopening of the Suez Canal, which are seen as good for oil.</p><p><b>⑤ The Canadian dollar rose by 1.21% on average in April</b></p><p>Crude oil tends to rise in April, so this is also the most positive month for the Canadian dollar. Since 2000, the Canadian dollar has increased by an average of 1.21% in April. In addition, the current technical situation of the Canadian dollar is also relatively favorable. The decline of USD/CAD has slowed down this month, which has reserved momentum for the Canadian dollar to continue to rise in the market outlook.</p><p><b>⑥ The US dollar is expected to be difficult to rise in April</b></p><p>April was the second-worst month for the dollar in the past 20 years. The U.S. dollar has started this year strongly, but the next step will depend on whether U.S. bond yields can break through the mid-March high (the 10-year U.S. bond yield once exceeded 1.75%). If U.S. bond yields stagnate or fall, the dollar may be sold off. In addition, even if yields rise, strong risk appetite will put pressure on the dollar.</p><p><b>However, as Nomura strategists point out, seasonality should be used as a secondary reference for trading, rather than the main trading logic.</b></p>","source":"jssj","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Historical Verification: April Could Be the Easiest Month to Make Money</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nHistorical Verification: April Could Be the Easiest Month to Make Money\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">金十数据</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-04-06 11:16</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>Author: Xiao Yanyan</p><p>The seasonality of assets in April is very obvious. As shown in the chart below, since 1990, the average return of most assets in April has been relatively strong.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d146620dcada676e6bc554ff9ab5f97f\" tg-width=\"1106\" tg-height=\"813\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><b>① U.S. interest rate volatility is expected to decline in April</b></p><p>The first thing to say is U.S. bond yields at the forefront, because this factor has been dominating the market this year. Heading into April, it may give the market a big sigh of relief. Because according to seasonality,<b>Volatility in U.S. interest rates is likely to fall in April</b>。</p><p>In nine of the past 10 years, a volatility measure based on 3-month-10-year at-the-money swap options fell in April. There's little reason to think that the market won't see a similar gamma downside this time around. Therefore, Citi strategists recommend that clients hedge their risk by selling a type of straddle.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2873f9c0cb990ed349202a13bec4763d\" tg-width=\"960\" tg-height=\"520\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>Michael Chang, strategist at Qi Group, said in a note that one possible explanation for the decline in interest rate volatility in April was the Easter holiday, as \"overall market participant activity may decline.\"</p><p>In addition, he also pointed out that Japan's potential purchase capital flow after the end of the fiscal year on March 31 will bring potential downward pressure on bond yields, which is also a negative factor for volatility.</p><p>To be sure, there may also be a brief rebound in volatility during this period, including the non-farm payrolls report, and any progress in the U.S. infrastructure spending plan may create obstacles to lower U.S. bond yields.</p><p><b>② The U.S. stock market will usher in a \"bull April\"</b></p><p>Statistics show that the S&P 500 index performed best in April, and risk assets generally performed well.</p><p><b>Over the past 20 years, the S&P 500 has risen by an average of 1.74% in April, including a 12.7% surge last year. In the last 15 years, the S&P 500 only recorded a decline of-0.75% in April 2012.</b>, and it rose sharply from January to March before the decline.</p><p>Ryan Detrick, chief market strategist at LPL Financial, analyzed that the stock market has recorded gains in April in 14 of the past 15 years, and April has been the second best month for the U.S. stock market since 1950.</p><p>Morgan Stanley predicts based on statistical data,<b>The third week of April was the best week for global stocks of the year</b>。 This seasonality is expected to continue this year, with positive factors including strong Q1 earnings, still moderate inflation and slowing U.S. bond yields.</p><p>But CFRA chief investment strategist Sam Stovall cautioned that some cyclical stocks may have risen too much, and stocks in the energy, industrial and financial sectors may pause their gains.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/102f006de0b31003c8afbbdc3489cdd5\" tg-width=\"986\" tg-height=\"579\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><b>③ The pound performed best in April</b></p><p><b>April was also the best month for the pound since 2000, with an average rise of 1.29%. In 16 of the past 20 years, the pound has risen in April.</b></p><p>Today the UK leads the vaccination rate, and the Brexit haze continues to dissipate, providing a solid foundation for the pound to continue to rise.</p><p>Research from Nomura and Bank of America suggests the pound will continue to be the best-performing currency in 2021 if seasonality continues to take effect.</p><p>Research shows that the pound rose against all G10 currencies except the Australian dollar in April,<b>GBP/USD has risen by an average of nearly 2% in April in recent years</b>。 If it can rise by 1% in April this year, GBP/USD will break through 1.39; If it can rise by nearly 2%, it will re-stand at 1.40.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ce5d8692bfdc69b7dd8112277d66ec43\" tg-width=\"1268\" tg-height=\"520\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/300b95fd89c26471b2102d64c1ae6a1e\" tg-width=\"1229\" tg-height=\"515\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><b>④ Crude oil performed the second best year in April</b></p><p>OPEC + 's meeting last week decided that its performance against oil prices this month was crucial, and it was overall seen as positive for oil prices. Crude oil also enjoys good seasonality in April,<b>The average April gain over the past 20 years is 3.37%</b>, was the second best month.</p><p>Technically, crude had an opportunity to consolidate in March and remove some overbought pressure. Markets are also shrugging off the reopening of the Suez Canal, which are seen as good for oil.</p><p><b>⑤ The Canadian dollar rose by 1.21% on average in April</b></p><p>Crude oil tends to rise in April, so this is also the most positive month for the Canadian dollar. Since 2000, the Canadian dollar has increased by an average of 1.21% in April. In addition, the current technical situation of the Canadian dollar is also relatively favorable. The decline of USD/CAD has slowed down this month, which has reserved momentum for the Canadian dollar to continue to rise in the market outlook.</p><p><b>⑥ The US dollar is expected to be difficult to rise in April</b></p><p>April was the second-worst month for the dollar in the past 20 years. The U.S. dollar has started this year strongly, but the next step will depend on whether U.S. bond yields can break through the mid-March high (the 10-year U.S. bond yield once exceeded 1.75%). If U.S. bond yields stagnate or fall, the dollar may be sold off. In addition, even if yields rise, strong risk appetite will put pressure on the dollar.</p><p><b>However, as Nomura strategists point out, seasonality should be used as a secondary reference for trading, rather than the main trading logic.</b></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> source：<a href=\"https://xnews.jin10.com/details/72676\">金十数据</a></p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2a3253accc7322a3db322a8557ee9834","relate_stocks":{".DJI":"道琼斯","HSI":"恒生指数","000001.SH":"上证指数"},"source_url":"https://xnews.jin10.com/details/72676","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1154652115","content_text":"作者：肖燕燕\n4月份的资产季节性非常明显，如下图所示，1990年以来，多数资产在4月份的平均回报都比较强劲。\n\n①4月美国利率波动率有望下降\n首先要说在最前面的是美债收益率，因为今年以来这个因素一直主宰着市场的走势。进入4月份，它可能会让市场大大舒一口气。因为按照季节性，4月美国利率的波动性可能会下降。\n在过去10年中有9年，一项基于3个月-10年期平价互换期权的波动率指标都在4月份下跌。几乎没有理由认为这次市场不会出现类似的伽马下行走势。因此，花旗策略师建议客户通过出售一种跨式期权来对冲风险。\n\n旗集团策略师Michael Chang在一份报告中表示，4月利率波动率下滑的一种可能解释是复活节假期，因为“市场参与者总体活跃度可能下滑”。\n此外他还指出，日本在3月31日财政年度结束后的潜在购买资金流会带来债券收益率的潜在下行压力，这对于波动率也是不利因素。\n可以肯定的是，这期间的波动率也可能会出现短暂反弹，包括非农就业报告、美国基建支出计划的任何进展都可能给美债收益率走低带来障碍。\n②美股市场将迎来“牛4月”\n统计数据显示，标普500指数在4月份表现最佳，风险资产也普遍表现良好。\n过去20年里，标普500指数在4月份平均上涨1.74%，其中去年暴涨了12.7%。在最近的15年里，标普500指数只在2012年4月录得过下跌-0.75%，而且在下跌前的1-3月曾大幅上涨。\nLPL Financial首席市场策略师Ryan Detrick分析称，过去15年中，有14年股市在4月份录得涨幅，并且自1950年以来，4月份是美股市场表现第二好的月份。\n摩根士丹利结合统计数据预判，4月第三周是全年中全球股市表现最好的一周。这种季节性料将在今年延续，利好因素包括强劲的Q1财报、依然较温和的通胀率以及美债收益率涨势放缓。\n但CFRA首席投资策略师Sam Stovall提醒，一些周期性股票可能已经涨得太多，能源、工业和金融领域股票可能会暂停涨势。\n\n③英镑4月表现最佳\n自2000年以来，4月也是英镑表现最好的月份，平均上涨1.29%。过去20年里，英镑有16年都在4月份实现上涨。\n如今英国的疫苗接种率领先，且脱欧阴霾继续消散，为英镑继续上涨提供了坚实基础。\n野村和美国银行的研究表明，如果季节性继续生效，英镑将继续成为2021年表现最佳的货币。\n研究表明，英镑4月兑除澳元外的所有G10货币上涨，近年来英镑/美元在4月平均上涨近2%。若今年4月能上升1%，英镑/美元将突破1.39；若能上升近2%，那么将重新站上1.40。\n\n\n④原油4月表现全年第二佳\nOPEC+上周的会议决定兑油价本月的表现至关重要，整体被视为利好油价。原油在4月份也享有良好的季节性，过去20年里的4月平均涨幅为3.37％，为表现第二佳月份。\n从技术上讲，原油曾有机会在三月份进行盘整，并消除了一些超买压力。市场也摆脱了苏伊士运河重新开放的影响，这些都被认为对石油有利。\n⑤加元4月平均上涨1.21%\n原油在4月倾向于上涨，因此这也是最利好加元的月份。自2000年以来，加元4月平均上涨1.21%。此外，加元目前的技术面也比较有利，美元/加元本月跌势有所放缓，为后市加元继续上涨储备了动能。\n⑥4月美元料难走高\n过去20年里，4月是美元表现第二糟糕的月份。美元今年开局强劲，但下一步如何走将取决于美债收益率能否突破3月中旬的高位（10年期美债收益率曾突破1.75%）。如果美债收益率停滞不前或下跌，美元可能被抛售。另外，即便收益率上涨，强劲的风险偏好也会给美元带来压力。\n不过，正如野村策略师指出的那样，季节性应被用作交易的辅助参考，而不是主要交易逻辑。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"000001.SH":0.9,".DJI":0.9,"HSI":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":756,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":340280795,"gmtCreate":1617417090217,"gmtModify":1704699530877,"author":{"id":"3571557586397050","authorId":"3571557586397050","name":"AhOng","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e3edadf648d1a9539369c3fdbd0e0a61","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3571557586397050","idStr":"3571557586397050"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/STMP\">$Stamps.com Inc(STMP)$</a>cool","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/STMP\">$Stamps.com Inc(STMP)$</a>cool","text":"$Stamps.com Inc(STMP)$cool","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/593733994d7fcf95e848f4720c66ccb8","width":"1242","height":"2151"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":4,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/340280795","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":568,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":103703208,"gmtCreate":1619818237604,"gmtModify":1704335240784,"author":{"id":"3571557586397050","authorId":"3571557586397050","name":"AhOng","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e3edadf648d1a9539369c3fdbd0e0a61","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3571557586397050","idStr":"3571557586397050"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Red Bull ?","listText":"Red Bull ?","text":"Red Bull ?","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/103703208","repostId":"1168290266","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1168290266","kind":"news","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"为用户提供金融资讯、行情、数据，旨在帮助投资者理解世界，做投资决策。","home_visible":1,"media_name":"老虎资讯综合","id":"102","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba"},"pubTimestamp":1619792966,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1168290266?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2021-04-30 22:29","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"Nio rose strongly, from falling 4% to rising by more than 5%","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1168290266","media":"老虎资讯综合","summary":"周五，蔚来盘中持续拉涨，现涨超5%，此前一度跌近4%。与此同时，特斯拉也在盘中一路上扬，截至发稿涨超2%。美东时间29日周四美股盘后，蔚来汽车公布，一季度非美国通用会计准则（GAAP）下调整后每ADS","content":"<p>Friday,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NIO\">Nio</a>It continued to rise during the session, and is now up more than 5%, after falling nearly 4% before. At the same time,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TSLA\">Tesla</a>It also rose all the way during the session, rising more than 2% as of press time.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/66ed1076ae36a5639ebf152b65af16ad\" tg-width=\"840\" tg-height=\"470\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/68e74062a5ce104a5273822ba33f9726\" tg-width=\"840\" tg-height=\"470\"></p><p>After the U.S. stock market closed on Thursday, 29th Eastern Time, Nio Motor announced that the non-GAAP adjusted loss per ADS share in the first quarter was 0.23 yuan, which was less than 30% of the market's expected loss of 0.84 yuan. The loss per ADS in the first quarter of 1.6 yuan narrowed by nearly 85.6% year-on-year, and 75.3% narrowed from the ADS loss in the fourth quarter of last year.</p><p>In the first quarter, Nio's adjusted net loss was 451 million yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 73.3% and a quarter-on-quarter decrease of 67.5%; The overall operating income for the quarter was 7.9823 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 481.8% and a quarter-on-quarter increase of 20.2%, of which automobile sales revenue was 7.4058 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 489.8% and a quarter-on-quarter increase of 20%.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ff7536ef975ec9845e70cd62c25f6660\" tg-width=\"1209\" tg-height=\"337\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>Nio's gross profit margin in the first quarter was 19.5%, higher than 17.2% in the fourth quarter, and a significant increase of 31.7 percentage points from the first quarter of last year. The gross profit margin of Nio's automobile business in the first quarter was 21.2%, 28.6 percentage points higher than the same period last year, and 17.2% in the fourth quarter.</p><p>The delivery volume exceeded 20,000 for the first time in history, and it is expected to double and reach a new high in the second quarter.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4ed97753aa601c5faec8668e13a4a9e2\" tg-width=\"1179\" tg-height=\"176\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>Nio also announced that it delivered 20,060 vehicles in the first quarter. For the first time in history, the single-quarter delivery volume exceeded 20,000 vehicles, 5.2 times that of the same period last year, and an increase of 15.6% from the previous single-quarter record in the fourth quarter of last year. This result is higher than Nio's lowered delivery guidance of 19,500 vehicles at the end of March, which was expected to be 20,000-20,500 vehicles before the lowering.</p><p>In terms of performance guidance, Nio expects to deliver 21,000 to 22,000 vehicles in the second quarter, a year-on-year increase of 103% to 113% and a quarter-on-quarter increase of 5%-10%. Revenue in the second quarter was 8.1461 billion yuan to 8.5045 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 119% to 128.7%, and a quarter-on-quarter increase of 2.1% to 6.5%.</p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Nio rose strongly, from falling 4% to rising by more than 5%</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nNio rose strongly, from falling 4% to rising by more than 5%\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/102\">\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">老虎资讯综合 </p>\n<p class=\"h-time smaller\">2021-04-30 22:29</p>\n</div>\n</a>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>Friday,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NIO\">Nio</a>It continued to rise during the session, and is now up more than 5%, after falling nearly 4% before. At the same time,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TSLA\">Tesla</a>It also rose all the way during the session, rising more than 2% as of press time.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/66ed1076ae36a5639ebf152b65af16ad\" tg-width=\"840\" tg-height=\"470\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/68e74062a5ce104a5273822ba33f9726\" tg-width=\"840\" tg-height=\"470\"></p><p>After the U.S. stock market closed on Thursday, 29th Eastern Time, Nio Motor announced that the non-GAAP adjusted loss per ADS share in the first quarter was 0.23 yuan, which was less than 30% of the market's expected loss of 0.84 yuan. The loss per ADS in the first quarter of 1.6 yuan narrowed by nearly 85.6% year-on-year, and 75.3% narrowed from the ADS loss in the fourth quarter of last year.</p><p>In the first quarter, Nio's adjusted net loss was 451 million yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 73.3% and a quarter-on-quarter decrease of 67.5%; The overall operating income for the quarter was 7.9823 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 481.8% and a quarter-on-quarter increase of 20.2%, of which automobile sales revenue was 7.4058 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 489.8% and a quarter-on-quarter increase of 20%.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ff7536ef975ec9845e70cd62c25f6660\" tg-width=\"1209\" tg-height=\"337\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>Nio's gross profit margin in the first quarter was 19.5%, higher than 17.2% in the fourth quarter, and a significant increase of 31.7 percentage points from the first quarter of last year. The gross profit margin of Nio's automobile business in the first quarter was 21.2%, 28.6 percentage points higher than the same period last year, and 17.2% in the fourth quarter.</p><p>The delivery volume exceeded 20,000 for the first time in history, and it is expected to double and reach a new high in the second quarter.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4ed97753aa601c5faec8668e13a4a9e2\" tg-width=\"1179\" tg-height=\"176\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>Nio also announced that it delivered 20,060 vehicles in the first quarter. For the first time in history, the single-quarter delivery volume exceeded 20,000 vehicles, 5.2 times that of the same period last year, and an increase of 15.6% from the previous single-quarter record in the fourth quarter of last year. This result is higher than Nio's lowered delivery guidance of 19,500 vehicles at the end of March, which was expected to be 20,000-20,500 vehicles before the lowering.</p><p>In terms of performance guidance, Nio expects to deliver 21,000 to 22,000 vehicles in the second quarter, a year-on-year increase of 103% to 113% and a quarter-on-quarter increase of 5%-10%. Revenue in the second quarter was 8.1461 billion yuan to 8.5045 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 119% to 128.7%, and a quarter-on-quarter increase of 2.1% to 6.5%.</p>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a3b92523152bd36c422721756606e549","relate_stocks":{"NIO":"蔚来"},"is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1168290266","content_text":"周五，蔚来盘中持续拉涨，现涨超5%，此前一度跌近4%。与此同时，特斯拉也在盘中一路上扬，截至发稿涨超2%。美东时间29日周四美股盘后，蔚来汽车公布，一季度非美国通用会计准则（GAAP）下调整后每ADS股亏损0.23元人民币，不到市场预期亏损0.84元的30%，较去年一季度每ADS亏损1.6元同比收窄将近85.6%，较去年四季度ADS亏损环比收窄75.3%。一季度蔚来调整后净亏损4.51亿元，同比收窄73.3%，环比收窄67.5%；当季总体营业收入79.823亿元，同比增长481.8%，环比四季度增长20.2%，其中汽车销售收入74.058亿元，同比增长489.8%，环比增20%。一季度蔚来毛利率19.5%，高于四季度的17.2%，较去年一季度大幅提高31.7个百分点。一季度蔚来汽车业务的毛利率为21.2%，较去年同期高28.6个百分点，四季度为17.2%。交付量史上首次突破2万 预计二季度翻倍增长再创新高。蔚来同时公布，一季度交付2.006万辆，史上首次单季交付量突破2万辆，是去年同期的5.2倍，较去年四季度的前单季最高纪录增长15.6%。这一成绩高于蔚来3月末下调后的交付指引1.95万辆，下调前预计2万-2.05万辆。业绩指引方面，蔚来预计二季度交付2.1万到2.2万辆，同比增长103%到113%，环比增长5%-10%。二季度营收81.461亿元到85.045亿元，同比增长119%到128.7%，环比增2.1%到6.5%。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"NIO":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":0,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":109192741,"gmtCreate":1619670783483,"gmtModify":1704727753736,"author":{"id":"3571557586397050","authorId":"3571557586397050","name":"AhOng","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e3edadf648d1a9539369c3fdbd0e0a61","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3571557586397050","idStr":"3571557586397050"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/PLTK\">$Playtika Holding Corp.(PLTK)$</a>yes","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/PLTK\">$Playtika Holding Corp.(PLTK)$</a>yes","text":"$Playtika Holding Corp.(PLTK)$yes","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/50f0a2d676f2bec9460610c7be09a68b","width":"1242","height":"2151"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":3,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/109192741","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1277,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":378577558,"gmtCreate":1619053336474,"gmtModify":1704718851995,"author":{"id":"3571557586397050","authorId":"3571557586397050","name":"AhOng","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e3edadf648d1a9539369c3fdbd0e0a61","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3571557586397050","idStr":"3571557586397050"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/COIN\">$Coinbase Global, Inc.(COIN)$</a>goof","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/COIN\">$Coinbase Global, Inc.(COIN)$</a>goof","text":"$Coinbase Global, Inc.(COIN)$goof","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":4,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/378577558","repostId":"2129809338","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":583,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":358278353,"gmtCreate":1616712331372,"gmtModify":1704797668539,"author":{"id":"3571557586397050","authorId":"3571557586397050","name":"AhOng","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e3edadf648d1a9539369c3fdbd0e0a61","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3571557586397050","idStr":"3571557586397050"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Up up","listText":"Up up","text":"Up up","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/22fabee82fdead80943fea76ec7aa5b9","width":"1125","height":"3277"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":4,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/358278353","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":458,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":366616427,"gmtCreate":1614473147769,"gmtModify":1704771907608,"author":{"id":"3571557586397050","authorId":"3571557586397050","name":"AhOng","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e3edadf648d1a9539369c3fdbd0e0a61","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3571557586397050","idStr":"3571557586397050"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Be aware&nbsp;","listText":"Be aware&nbsp;","text":"Be aware","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":4,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/366616427","repostId":"1153301219","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1153301219","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1614389513,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1153301219?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2021-02-27 09:31","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"How high will US inflation be this year? Peak may exceed 5%","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1153301219","media":"CS宏观研究","summary":"暂时性通胀冲高也不会影响到美联储宽松的货币政策取向。","content":"<p><b>CORE POINT</b></p><p>Rising U.S. inflation expectations have triggered market concerns. Crude oil prices are the factor that has the greatest impact on inflation. Under the benchmark scenario, the overall inflation center is expected to rise by 0.5-1 percentage points. If crude oil is excluded, the core inflation is likely to be lower than 2%, so the United States will not have much inflationary pressure this year. The temporary surge in inflation will not affect the Fed's loose monetary policy orientation. In the short term, U.S. inflation may exceed 5% in the second quarter of this year, and reflation expectations will still dominate the market.</p><p><b>SUMMARY</b></p><p>▌ Rising U.S. inflation expectations have triggered market concerns. Inflation expectations in the United States have increased recently, and inflation expectations reflected by the inflation expectation indicators we track have exceeded 2%. Judging from the trend of real interest rates on U.S. bonds, the market's concerns about the shift in the Federal Reserve's monetary policy have increased, which has led to an upward trend in U.S. bond yields and an adjustment in the market's high-valuation sectors. Therefore, it is necessary for us to re-examine the current inflation expectations and the corresponding changes in policy orientation. In this regard, we have made a forecast for the actual inflation level in the United States this year.</p><p>▌ Constructing a U.S. inflation forecast model: Taking CPI and PCE price index as analysis objects, a multi-factor model for predicting CPI and PCE price index is constructed according to the sub-leading indicators corresponding to food, energy, core commodities and core services. The model results show that the factor model explains CPI and PCE by 80% and 82% respectively, among which the most critical factors that determine the inflation trend are crude oil prices and wage growth. I am optimistic about crude oil in the short term, but it is not expected that the center will be too high throughout the year. Under the benchmark scenario, we expect that the short-term Brent crude oil price may rise to more than US $65/barrel, and will fall back in the second half of the year. The Brent oil center for the whole year will be around US $60/barrel. The wage growth rate in the United States continues its downward trend. It is expected that with the easing of temporary unemployment in the United States this year, the wage growth rate in the United States will continue to decline, thus dragging down the inflation level of core services.</p><p>▌ Forecast results: According to the assumptions of crude oil and wage growth, we give optimistic, neutral and pessimistic inflation trend forecasts respectively. Under a neutral scenario (the center of Brent oil price is around US $60/barrel, and the salary growth rate quickly falls back to lower than the pre-epidemic level), it is expected that U.S. inflation will \"rise and fall\" in Q2 this year, corresponding to the annual CPI and PCE price index. The year-on-year growth centers are 2.5% and 2.1% respectively.</p><p>▌ Overall, we believe that the overall inflationary pressure in the United States is not great this year. Crude oil prices are the factor that has the greatest impact on inflation. Under the benchmark scenario, the overall inflation center is expected to rise by 0.5-1 percentage points. The oil price of 55-65 US dollars/barrel corresponds to the annual CPI inflation center of 2.3-2.8% and the PCE inflation center of 1.8%.-2.3%. If crude oil is excluded, the core inflation is likely to be lower than 2%, so the United States will not have much inflationary pressure.</p><p>▌ The Federal Reserve is likely to maintain a loose policy orientation throughout the year. The rise in short-term inflation expectations is more due to the economic recovery expectations brought about by the improvement of the epidemic and the acceleration of vaccination. Combined with the recent statements of Federal Reserve officials, we believe that the orientation of loose money has not changed. Looking forward, although U.S. inflation is expected to be significantly higher than 2% in Q2 this year, the rebound in inflation is more affected by the base effect and the mismatch between supply and demand. At present, there is no basis for a sustained sharp increase. At the same time, the Fed's tolerance for inflation The degree has also improved significantly, and it is expected that the temporary surge in inflation will not affect the Fed's loose monetary policy orientation.</p><p>▌ In the short term, U.S. inflation may exceed 5% in the second quarter of this year, and reflation expectations will still dominate the market. It is expected that the high point of inflation in the United States this year will appear in the second quarter, and the corresponding year-on-year growth rate of CPI and PCE may exceed 5%. During this period, reflation expectations will continue to dominate overseas market trends. Among the major asset classes, short-term inflation surges are relatively good for commodities, especially strengthening price increases expectations for industrial metals and crude oil. However, the rise in interest rates brought about by reflation will significantly suppress the performance of high-valuation sectors, and U.S. stocks are expected to usher in a style switch from growth to value.</p><p>▌<b>Risk Factors:</b>1) Uncertainty about the epidemic and vaccination; 2) U.S. fiscal and monetary policies continue to exceed expectations; 3) Unexpected changes in the supply side of crude oil and food have led to large price fluctuations.</p><p><b>text</b></p><p><b>▌ Rising U.S. inflation expectations raise market concerns</b></p><p>Inflation expectations in the United States have increased recently, and inflation expectations in the United States reflected by the inflation expectation indicators we track have exceeded 2%. Judging from the trend of real interest rates on U.S. bonds, the market's concerns about the shift in the Federal Reserve's monetary policy have increased, which has led to an upward trend in U.S. bond yields and an adjustment in the market's high-valuation sectors.</p><p>The U.S. inflation expectation indicators we track show that the one-year inflation expectation with U.S. CPI as the tracking target has exceeded 2%, of which Michigan's 12-month inflation expectation has reached 2.5%; The inflation expectation with PCE as the tracking target has also exceeded 1.9%, the SPF1 year inflation expectation is 1.94%, and the core inflation expectation is 1.9%. From the perspective of historical time series, inflation expectations reflected by SPF and TIPS have risen significantly recently, and are both higher than pre-epidemic levels; The 5-year inflation expectation of TIPS Breakevens, which is more sensitive to inflation, has reached 2.35%, a new high since 2014 (when the Federal Reserve ended QE). Based on various indicators (average), the current market's inflation expectation for the United States in 2021 has reached 2.13%, which is significantly higher than the Fed's average inflation target of 2%. Therefore, it has also triggered market concerns about the Fed's monetary policy tightening.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/495fdb5d8d1fc1504f7d27ed95ffe74d\" tg-width=\"831\" tg-height=\"526\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d5e2c5e2a59b02a56a403e18cc11859a\" tg-width=\"805\" tg-height=\"400\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b2678eb6d7a60cdd7e9edb90239682cf\" tg-width=\"807\" tg-height=\"460\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>The recent performance of overseas markets further reflects this expectation. Since February 9, the 10-year U.S. bond yield has risen by 36bp in just two weeks. The latest 10-year U.S. bond yield has exceeded 1.5%, and the adjustment range is very obvious. The Nasdaq Composite Index, which is relatively sensitive to interest rates in U.S. stocks, has also undergone rapid adjustments recently, with a cumulative decline of 6% in the past half month. At the same time, since February 9, the real interest rate of U.S. bonds has bottomed out and risen, with a cumulative increase of more than 40bp, which is basically consistent with the adjustment time of U.S. stocks and U.S. bonds. We believe that this mainly reflects that the market's concerns about the tightening of the Federal Reserve's monetary policy have increased, which has driven up real interest rates, thus contributing to the rapid rise of U.S. debt in a short period of time and the drastic adjustment of the high-valuation sector of U.S. stocks.</p><p>Therefore, it is necessary for us to re-examine the current inflation expectations and the corresponding changes in policy orientation. In this regard, we have made a forecast for the U.S. inflation level this year.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/246490707e504d1250f80276f50d31fc\" tg-width=\"804\" tg-height=\"400\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/52694737ceef6dbb9dec0bbbbe4c5afa\" tg-width=\"809\" tg-height=\"400\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><b>▌ Measurement of inflation and selection of indicators</b></p><p>Both CPI and PCE are important indicators to measure U.S. inflation. PCE focuses on measuring a wider range of price levels; The weight update frequency is fast, which can better reflect the \"substitution effect\"; Therefore, the Federal Reserve began to use PCE as a policy target in 2000. CPI focuses on measuring the price level related to household consumption expenditure; The annual adjustment of social insurance payments in the United States is generally based on CPI, and most inflation-related financial products are also linked to CPI, which also has strong policy influence. Both have their own considerations, and each has its own advantages in measuring the actual inflation level. Therefore, in this report, we use both CPI and PCE price index as analysis objects to better assess the trend of actual inflation level.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/61bd8a03cb281888ff91a4ce0b2946dd\" tg-width=\"808\" tg-height=\"476\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><b>▌ An analytical framework for short-term inflation in the United States</b></p><p>Both CPI and PCE price index can be divided into four sub-items, namely food, energy, core commodities and core services. Through historical comparison and statistical screening, it can be found that the leading indicators corresponding to these four factors are CRB food, crude oil price, import price index excluding energy, and salary growth rate.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f129a46181c9030bd427cab17acbcb19\" tg-width=\"812\" tg-height=\"364\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5f05632f5d9499decb44387100af7c33\" tg-width=\"500\" tg-height=\"407\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/eb30ce74acaee2b9050352c67dd0ffcb\" tg-width=\"502\" tg-height=\"404\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/74306546b4eeb31faa0c5a1e20277328\" tg-width=\"503\" tg-height=\"410\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6a9e0e9cec78c70f89b6ded7a8fa7ca4\" tg-width=\"508\" tg-height=\"409\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>We construct a multi-factor model to predict the CPI and PCE price index based on the corresponding sub-leading indicators, and dynamically adjust the leading/lagging order by using the historical correlation between indicators. The model results show that the explanation degree of CPI and PCE by the factor model is 80% and 82% respectively, among which the factors with the strongest explanatory power are crude oil price and salary growth rate, which are mainly related to the large fluctuation of energy and the proportion of core service price index. Relatively high (over 60%). Therefore, the most critical factors that determine the trend of inflation in the short term are crude oil prices and wage growth.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0c9b4b606cd03042d1f10d99d33222a7\" tg-width=\"1028\" tg-height=\"340\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/752f764572d1ae97b83473a501140137\" tg-width=\"806\" tg-height=\"395\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e7f0fe6f138d26999631bddaccf4072a\" tg-width=\"803\" tg-height=\"400\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><b>▌ Crude oil prices and wage growth are key</b></p><p>In order to facilitate forecasting, we need to focus on analyzing crude oil prices and salary growth rates, and combine the leadership of various variables to forecast the CPI and PCE price indexes for the next year or so.</p><p>Crude oil is optimistic in the short term, but it is not expected that the center will be too high throughout the year. The rapid rise in short-term crude oil prices is mainly related to overseas economic recovery expectations and reflation expectations, benefiting from the improvement of the epidemic situation in European and American countries, the acceleration of vaccination progress, and the smooth implementation of Biden's fiscal stimulus package. It is expected that short-term overseas epidemics, vaccines and policies will continue to promote global economic recovery and reflation expectations, and will also support the strong performance of short-term crude oil.</p><p>But throughout the year, as demand and crude oil prices are expected to improve, pressure on the supply side will gradually increase. According to EIA forecasts, the fundamentals of crude oil supply and demand are expected to return to equilibrium in the second half of this year, so it is difficult for the crude oil price center to continue to rise sharply. At the same time, the current Brent oil price is already above the short-term break-even line of U.S. shale oil (45-55 US dollars). If shale oil production increases, it will have a greater impact on oil prices. Therefore, we remain cautiously optimistic about the oil price center throughout the year. Under the benchmark scenario, we expect that Brent oil prices may rise above US $65/barrel in the short term, and may fall back in the second half of the year. The Brent oil center for the whole year may be around US $60/barrel.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a856474c95a85f8ca87b093dc19163b9\" tg-width=\"808\" tg-height=\"400\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>U.S. wage growth continues its downward trend. Since the epidemic, the wage growth rate of the U.S. labor force has increased significantly, mainly because the low-income labor force has withdrawn from the job market. Judging from the unemployment situation of various industries during the epidemic, the lower the average salary level, the higher the proportion of unemployed people during the epidemic compared to before the epidemic. The recent decline in wage growth also reflects the improvement of employment in low-income industries (leisure hotels, wholesale and retail, other service industries, etc.) to a certain extent.</p><p>Judging from the current employment situation, the overall employment gap in the United States is as high as more than 8 million. It is expected that employment in the United States will slowly recover this year, which also means that wage growth will continue its downward trend. Judging from the experience of the 2008 financial crisis, after the outbreak of the crisis, with the withdrawal of low-income people, the salary growth rate continued to decline after a short rebound of about half a year. It was not until 2015 that the salary growth rate began to rise from a low level. Therefore, we expect that U.S. wage growth will continue its downward trend until at least 2021, thus dragging down core service inflation.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c66f41c2093b484ed5f46137de90b8e6\" tg-width=\"808\" tg-height=\"432\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/04fa530e4dd8a747b32e20745271bfc0\" tg-width=\"804\" tg-height=\"402\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>▌<b>U.S. inflation trend forecast in 2021</b></p><p>Generally speaking, combined with the analysis of crude oil and wage growth, as well as our multi-factor model of inflation forecast, we can roughly calculate the inflation trend of the United States in the coming year. According to the assumptions of crude oil and wage growth, we give optimistic, neutral and pessimistic inflation trend forecasts as follows:</p><p>Under an optimistic scenario (the Brent oil price center in 2021 is US $65/barrel, and the salary growth rate has stabilized and rebounded to be higher than the pre-epidemic level), the corresponding annual U.S. CPI and PCE price index year-on-year growth centers are 2.8% and 2.3% respectively;</p><p>Under the pessimistic situation (the price center of Brent oil is around US $55/barrel, and the salary growth rate quickly falls back to lower than the pre-epidemic level), the corresponding annual CPI and PCE price index year-on-year growth centers of the United States are 2.3% and 1.8% respectively;</p><p>Under a neutral scenario (the Brent oil price center is around US $60/barrel, and the salary growth rate quickly falls back to lower than the pre-epidemic level), the corresponding annual U.S. CPI and PCE price index year-on-year growth centers are 2.5% and 2.1% respectively.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3cbe07c2ff7caf003a5637efd26bfb6f\" tg-width=\"806\" tg-height=\"523\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ecbe57e2eb0862829a4c8909688da766\" tg-width=\"805\" tg-height=\"491\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>In addition, we also made forecasts for core inflation and its sub-items. From the perspective of various weights, except food and energy, core inflation is mainly composed of the inflation of core goods (28%) and core services (60%). Under the neutral assumption, we believe that the core inflation in the United States will not rise significantly this year, and is expected to be around 1.7% by the end of 2021.</p><p>We expect that the inflation of core services in the United States will decline slightly this year compared with the end of last year, mainly dragged down by wage growth, with housing services and medical services having the greatest impact. During the epidemic, the rent affordability of low-income people in the United States declined, the demand for rental housing decreased, and domestic rent prices in the United States continued to decline. It is expected that housing services in the United States will continue to be dragged down by the decline in rents this year, with an overall slight decline compared with the end of last year; The price of medical services has been pushed up in the short term due to the impact of the epidemic in the United States. This year, due to the impact of the high base, it is expected that there will be a relatively obvious decline.</p><p>But at the same time, as the impact of the epidemic in the United States gradually dissipates, prices in industries including catering, accommodation, transportation, leisure, etc. are expected to stabilize and rebound, providing certain support for the impact of core service inflation. The performance of non-durable goods inflation in core commodity inflation will be better than that of durable goods. Prices including clothing, shoes and socks, and other durable goods are expected to rebound, while durable goods prices are expected to decline slightly under the influence of a high base.</p><p>Overall, we believe that the overall inflationary pressure in the United States is not great this year. Crude oil prices are the factor that has the greatest impact on inflation. Under the benchmark scenario, the overall inflation center is expected to rise by 0.5-1 percentage points. The oil price of 55-65 US dollars/barrel corresponds to the annual CPI inflation center of 2.3-2.8% and the PCE inflation center of 1.8%.-2.3%. If crude oil is excluded, the core inflation is likely to be lower than 2%, so the United States will not have much inflationary pressure.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/736d40d1fc28ee897ed471c5c93ef14f\" tg-width=\"827\" tg-height=\"571\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>The Federal Reserve is likely to maintain a loose policy orientation throughout the year. The rise in short-term inflation expectations is more due to the economic recovery expectations brought about by the improvement of the epidemic and the acceleration of vaccination. Combined with the recent statements of Federal Reserve officials, we believe that the orientation of loose money has not changed. Looking forward, although U.S. inflation is expected to be significantly higher than 2% in Q2 this year, the rebound in inflation is more affected by the base effect and the mismatch between supply and demand. At present, there is no basis for a sustained sharp increase. At the same time, the Fed's tolerance for inflation The degree has also improved significantly, and it is expected that the temporary surge in inflation will not affect the Fed's loose monetary policy orientation.</p><p>In the short term, U.S. inflation may exceed 5% in the second quarter of this year, and reflation expectations will still dominate the market. It is expected that the high point of inflation in the United States this year will appear in the second quarter, and the corresponding year-on-year growth rate of CPI and PCE may exceed 5%. During this period, reflation expectations will continue to dominate overseas market trends. Among the major asset classes, short-term inflation surges are relatively good for commodities, especially strengthening price increases expectations for industrial metals and crude oil. However, the rise in interest rates brought about by reflation will significantly suppress the performance of high-valuation sectors, and U.S. stocks are expected to usher in a style switch from growth to value.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/bbafcff54574f864c03544f2b041b93b\" tg-width=\"835\" tg-height=\"808\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>▌ Risk Factors</p><p>1) Uncertainty about the epidemic and vaccination;</p><p>2) U.S. fiscal and monetary policies continue to exceed expectations;</p><p>3) Unexpected changes in the supply side of crude oil and food have led to large price fluctuations.</p>","source":"lsy1578966434845","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>How high will US inflation be this year? Peak may exceed 5%</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nHow high will US inflation be this year? Peak may exceed 5%\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">CS宏观研究</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-02-27 09:31</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><b>CORE POINT</b></p><p>Rising U.S. inflation expectations have triggered market concerns. Crude oil prices are the factor that has the greatest impact on inflation. Under the benchmark scenario, the overall inflation center is expected to rise by 0.5-1 percentage points. If crude oil is excluded, the core inflation is likely to be lower than 2%, so the United States will not have much inflationary pressure this year. The temporary surge in inflation will not affect the Fed's loose monetary policy orientation. In the short term, U.S. inflation may exceed 5% in the second quarter of this year, and reflation expectations will still dominate the market.</p><p><b>SUMMARY</b></p><p>▌ Rising U.S. inflation expectations have triggered market concerns. Inflation expectations in the United States have increased recently, and inflation expectations reflected by the inflation expectation indicators we track have exceeded 2%. Judging from the trend of real interest rates on U.S. bonds, the market's concerns about the shift in the Federal Reserve's monetary policy have increased, which has led to an upward trend in U.S. bond yields and an adjustment in the market's high-valuation sectors. Therefore, it is necessary for us to re-examine the current inflation expectations and the corresponding changes in policy orientation. In this regard, we have made a forecast for the actual inflation level in the United States this year.</p><p>▌ Constructing a U.S. inflation forecast model: Taking CPI and PCE price index as analysis objects, a multi-factor model for predicting CPI and PCE price index is constructed according to the sub-leading indicators corresponding to food, energy, core commodities and core services. The model results show that the factor model explains CPI and PCE by 80% and 82% respectively, among which the most critical factors that determine the inflation trend are crude oil prices and wage growth. I am optimistic about crude oil in the short term, but it is not expected that the center will be too high throughout the year. Under the benchmark scenario, we expect that the short-term Brent crude oil price may rise to more than US $65/barrel, and will fall back in the second half of the year. The Brent oil center for the whole year will be around US $60/barrel. The wage growth rate in the United States continues its downward trend. It is expected that with the easing of temporary unemployment in the United States this year, the wage growth rate in the United States will continue to decline, thus dragging down the inflation level of core services.</p><p>▌ Forecast results: According to the assumptions of crude oil and wage growth, we give optimistic, neutral and pessimistic inflation trend forecasts respectively. Under a neutral scenario (the center of Brent oil price is around US $60/barrel, and the salary growth rate quickly falls back to lower than the pre-epidemic level), it is expected that U.S. inflation will \"rise and fall\" in Q2 this year, corresponding to the annual CPI and PCE price index. The year-on-year growth centers are 2.5% and 2.1% respectively.</p><p>▌ Overall, we believe that the overall inflationary pressure in the United States is not great this year. Crude oil prices are the factor that has the greatest impact on inflation. Under the benchmark scenario, the overall inflation center is expected to rise by 0.5-1 percentage points. The oil price of 55-65 US dollars/barrel corresponds to the annual CPI inflation center of 2.3-2.8% and the PCE inflation center of 1.8%.-2.3%. If crude oil is excluded, the core inflation is likely to be lower than 2%, so the United States will not have much inflationary pressure.</p><p>▌ The Federal Reserve is likely to maintain a loose policy orientation throughout the year. The rise in short-term inflation expectations is more due to the economic recovery expectations brought about by the improvement of the epidemic and the acceleration of vaccination. Combined with the recent statements of Federal Reserve officials, we believe that the orientation of loose money has not changed. Looking forward, although U.S. inflation is expected to be significantly higher than 2% in Q2 this year, the rebound in inflation is more affected by the base effect and the mismatch between supply and demand. At present, there is no basis for a sustained sharp increase. At the same time, the Fed's tolerance for inflation The degree has also improved significantly, and it is expected that the temporary surge in inflation will not affect the Fed's loose monetary policy orientation.</p><p>▌ In the short term, U.S. inflation may exceed 5% in the second quarter of this year, and reflation expectations will still dominate the market. It is expected that the high point of inflation in the United States this year will appear in the second quarter, and the corresponding year-on-year growth rate of CPI and PCE may exceed 5%. During this period, reflation expectations will continue to dominate overseas market trends. Among the major asset classes, short-term inflation surges are relatively good for commodities, especially strengthening price increases expectations for industrial metals and crude oil. However, the rise in interest rates brought about by reflation will significantly suppress the performance of high-valuation sectors, and U.S. stocks are expected to usher in a style switch from growth to value.</p><p>▌<b>Risk Factors:</b>1) Uncertainty about the epidemic and vaccination; 2) U.S. fiscal and monetary policies continue to exceed expectations; 3) Unexpected changes in the supply side of crude oil and food have led to large price fluctuations.</p><p><b>text</b></p><p><b>▌ Rising U.S. inflation expectations raise market concerns</b></p><p>Inflation expectations in the United States have increased recently, and inflation expectations in the United States reflected by the inflation expectation indicators we track have exceeded 2%. Judging from the trend of real interest rates on U.S. bonds, the market's concerns about the shift in the Federal Reserve's monetary policy have increased, which has led to an upward trend in U.S. bond yields and an adjustment in the market's high-valuation sectors.</p><p>The U.S. inflation expectation indicators we track show that the one-year inflation expectation with U.S. CPI as the tracking target has exceeded 2%, of which Michigan's 12-month inflation expectation has reached 2.5%; The inflation expectation with PCE as the tracking target has also exceeded 1.9%, the SPF1 year inflation expectation is 1.94%, and the core inflation expectation is 1.9%. From the perspective of historical time series, inflation expectations reflected by SPF and TIPS have risen significantly recently, and are both higher than pre-epidemic levels; The 5-year inflation expectation of TIPS Breakevens, which is more sensitive to inflation, has reached 2.35%, a new high since 2014 (when the Federal Reserve ended QE). Based on various indicators (average), the current market's inflation expectation for the United States in 2021 has reached 2.13%, which is significantly higher than the Fed's average inflation target of 2%. Therefore, it has also triggered market concerns about the Fed's monetary policy tightening.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/495fdb5d8d1fc1504f7d27ed95ffe74d\" tg-width=\"831\" tg-height=\"526\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d5e2c5e2a59b02a56a403e18cc11859a\" tg-width=\"805\" tg-height=\"400\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b2678eb6d7a60cdd7e9edb90239682cf\" tg-width=\"807\" tg-height=\"460\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>The recent performance of overseas markets further reflects this expectation. Since February 9, the 10-year U.S. bond yield has risen by 36bp in just two weeks. The latest 10-year U.S. bond yield has exceeded 1.5%, and the adjustment range is very obvious. The Nasdaq Composite Index, which is relatively sensitive to interest rates in U.S. stocks, has also undergone rapid adjustments recently, with a cumulative decline of 6% in the past half month. At the same time, since February 9, the real interest rate of U.S. bonds has bottomed out and risen, with a cumulative increase of more than 40bp, which is basically consistent with the adjustment time of U.S. stocks and U.S. bonds. We believe that this mainly reflects that the market's concerns about the tightening of the Federal Reserve's monetary policy have increased, which has driven up real interest rates, thus contributing to the rapid rise of U.S. debt in a short period of time and the drastic adjustment of the high-valuation sector of U.S. stocks.</p><p>Therefore, it is necessary for us to re-examine the current inflation expectations and the corresponding changes in policy orientation. In this regard, we have made a forecast for the U.S. inflation level this year.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/246490707e504d1250f80276f50d31fc\" tg-width=\"804\" tg-height=\"400\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/52694737ceef6dbb9dec0bbbbe4c5afa\" tg-width=\"809\" tg-height=\"400\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><b>▌ Measurement of inflation and selection of indicators</b></p><p>Both CPI and PCE are important indicators to measure U.S. inflation. PCE focuses on measuring a wider range of price levels; The weight update frequency is fast, which can better reflect the \"substitution effect\"; Therefore, the Federal Reserve began to use PCE as a policy target in 2000. CPI focuses on measuring the price level related to household consumption expenditure; The annual adjustment of social insurance payments in the United States is generally based on CPI, and most inflation-related financial products are also linked to CPI, which also has strong policy influence. Both have their own considerations, and each has its own advantages in measuring the actual inflation level. Therefore, in this report, we use both CPI and PCE price index as analysis objects to better assess the trend of actual inflation level.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/61bd8a03cb281888ff91a4ce0b2946dd\" tg-width=\"808\" tg-height=\"476\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><b>▌ An analytical framework for short-term inflation in the United States</b></p><p>Both CPI and PCE price index can be divided into four sub-items, namely food, energy, core commodities and core services. Through historical comparison and statistical screening, it can be found that the leading indicators corresponding to these four factors are CRB food, crude oil price, import price index excluding energy, and salary growth rate.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f129a46181c9030bd427cab17acbcb19\" tg-width=\"812\" tg-height=\"364\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5f05632f5d9499decb44387100af7c33\" tg-width=\"500\" tg-height=\"407\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/eb30ce74acaee2b9050352c67dd0ffcb\" tg-width=\"502\" tg-height=\"404\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/74306546b4eeb31faa0c5a1e20277328\" tg-width=\"503\" tg-height=\"410\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6a9e0e9cec78c70f89b6ded7a8fa7ca4\" tg-width=\"508\" tg-height=\"409\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>We construct a multi-factor model to predict the CPI and PCE price index based on the corresponding sub-leading indicators, and dynamically adjust the leading/lagging order by using the historical correlation between indicators. The model results show that the explanation degree of CPI and PCE by the factor model is 80% and 82% respectively, among which the factors with the strongest explanatory power are crude oil price and salary growth rate, which are mainly related to the large fluctuation of energy and the proportion of core service price index. Relatively high (over 60%). Therefore, the most critical factors that determine the trend of inflation in the short term are crude oil prices and wage growth.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0c9b4b606cd03042d1f10d99d33222a7\" tg-width=\"1028\" tg-height=\"340\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/752f764572d1ae97b83473a501140137\" tg-width=\"806\" tg-height=\"395\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e7f0fe6f138d26999631bddaccf4072a\" tg-width=\"803\" tg-height=\"400\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><b>▌ Crude oil prices and wage growth are key</b></p><p>In order to facilitate forecasting, we need to focus on analyzing crude oil prices and salary growth rates, and combine the leadership of various variables to forecast the CPI and PCE price indexes for the next year or so.</p><p>Crude oil is optimistic in the short term, but it is not expected that the center will be too high throughout the year. The rapid rise in short-term crude oil prices is mainly related to overseas economic recovery expectations and reflation expectations, benefiting from the improvement of the epidemic situation in European and American countries, the acceleration of vaccination progress, and the smooth implementation of Biden's fiscal stimulus package. It is expected that short-term overseas epidemics, vaccines and policies will continue to promote global economic recovery and reflation expectations, and will also support the strong performance of short-term crude oil.</p><p>But throughout the year, as demand and crude oil prices are expected to improve, pressure on the supply side will gradually increase. According to EIA forecasts, the fundamentals of crude oil supply and demand are expected to return to equilibrium in the second half of this year, so it is difficult for the crude oil price center to continue to rise sharply. At the same time, the current Brent oil price is already above the short-term break-even line of U.S. shale oil (45-55 US dollars). If shale oil production increases, it will have a greater impact on oil prices. Therefore, we remain cautiously optimistic about the oil price center throughout the year. Under the benchmark scenario, we expect that Brent oil prices may rise above US $65/barrel in the short term, and may fall back in the second half of the year. The Brent oil center for the whole year may be around US $60/barrel.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a856474c95a85f8ca87b093dc19163b9\" tg-width=\"808\" tg-height=\"400\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>U.S. wage growth continues its downward trend. Since the epidemic, the wage growth rate of the U.S. labor force has increased significantly, mainly because the low-income labor force has withdrawn from the job market. Judging from the unemployment situation of various industries during the epidemic, the lower the average salary level, the higher the proportion of unemployed people during the epidemic compared to before the epidemic. The recent decline in wage growth also reflects the improvement of employment in low-income industries (leisure hotels, wholesale and retail, other service industries, etc.) to a certain extent.</p><p>Judging from the current employment situation, the overall employment gap in the United States is as high as more than 8 million. It is expected that employment in the United States will slowly recover this year, which also means that wage growth will continue its downward trend. Judging from the experience of the 2008 financial crisis, after the outbreak of the crisis, with the withdrawal of low-income people, the salary growth rate continued to decline after a short rebound of about half a year. It was not until 2015 that the salary growth rate began to rise from a low level. Therefore, we expect that U.S. wage growth will continue its downward trend until at least 2021, thus dragging down core service inflation.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c66f41c2093b484ed5f46137de90b8e6\" tg-width=\"808\" tg-height=\"432\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/04fa530e4dd8a747b32e20745271bfc0\" tg-width=\"804\" tg-height=\"402\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>▌<b>U.S. inflation trend forecast in 2021</b></p><p>Generally speaking, combined with the analysis of crude oil and wage growth, as well as our multi-factor model of inflation forecast, we can roughly calculate the inflation trend of the United States in the coming year. According to the assumptions of crude oil and wage growth, we give optimistic, neutral and pessimistic inflation trend forecasts as follows:</p><p>Under an optimistic scenario (the Brent oil price center in 2021 is US $65/barrel, and the salary growth rate has stabilized and rebounded to be higher than the pre-epidemic level), the corresponding annual U.S. CPI and PCE price index year-on-year growth centers are 2.8% and 2.3% respectively;</p><p>Under the pessimistic situation (the price center of Brent oil is around US $55/barrel, and the salary growth rate quickly falls back to lower than the pre-epidemic level), the corresponding annual CPI and PCE price index year-on-year growth centers of the United States are 2.3% and 1.8% respectively;</p><p>Under a neutral scenario (the Brent oil price center is around US $60/barrel, and the salary growth rate quickly falls back to lower than the pre-epidemic level), the corresponding annual U.S. CPI and PCE price index year-on-year growth centers are 2.5% and 2.1% respectively.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3cbe07c2ff7caf003a5637efd26bfb6f\" tg-width=\"806\" tg-height=\"523\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ecbe57e2eb0862829a4c8909688da766\" tg-width=\"805\" tg-height=\"491\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>In addition, we also made forecasts for core inflation and its sub-items. From the perspective of various weights, except food and energy, core inflation is mainly composed of the inflation of core goods (28%) and core services (60%). Under the neutral assumption, we believe that the core inflation in the United States will not rise significantly this year, and is expected to be around 1.7% by the end of 2021.</p><p>We expect that the inflation of core services in the United States will decline slightly this year compared with the end of last year, mainly dragged down by wage growth, with housing services and medical services having the greatest impact. During the epidemic, the rent affordability of low-income people in the United States declined, the demand for rental housing decreased, and domestic rent prices in the United States continued to decline. It is expected that housing services in the United States will continue to be dragged down by the decline in rents this year, with an overall slight decline compared with the end of last year; The price of medical services has been pushed up in the short term due to the impact of the epidemic in the United States. This year, due to the impact of the high base, it is expected that there will be a relatively obvious decline.</p><p>But at the same time, as the impact of the epidemic in the United States gradually dissipates, prices in industries including catering, accommodation, transportation, leisure, etc. are expected to stabilize and rebound, providing certain support for the impact of core service inflation. The performance of non-durable goods inflation in core commodity inflation will be better than that of durable goods. Prices including clothing, shoes and socks, and other durable goods are expected to rebound, while durable goods prices are expected to decline slightly under the influence of a high base.</p><p>Overall, we believe that the overall inflationary pressure in the United States is not great this year. Crude oil prices are the factor that has the greatest impact on inflation. Under the benchmark scenario, the overall inflation center is expected to rise by 0.5-1 percentage points. The oil price of 55-65 US dollars/barrel corresponds to the annual CPI inflation center of 2.3-2.8% and the PCE inflation center of 1.8%.-2.3%. If crude oil is excluded, the core inflation is likely to be lower than 2%, so the United States will not have much inflationary pressure.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/736d40d1fc28ee897ed471c5c93ef14f\" tg-width=\"827\" tg-height=\"571\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>The Federal Reserve is likely to maintain a loose policy orientation throughout the year. The rise in short-term inflation expectations is more due to the economic recovery expectations brought about by the improvement of the epidemic and the acceleration of vaccination. Combined with the recent statements of Federal Reserve officials, we believe that the orientation of loose money has not changed. Looking forward, although U.S. inflation is expected to be significantly higher than 2% in Q2 this year, the rebound in inflation is more affected by the base effect and the mismatch between supply and demand. At present, there is no basis for a sustained sharp increase. At the same time, the Fed's tolerance for inflation The degree has also improved significantly, and it is expected that the temporary surge in inflation will not affect the Fed's loose monetary policy orientation.</p><p>In the short term, U.S. inflation may exceed 5% in the second quarter of this year, and reflation expectations will still dominate the market. It is expected that the high point of inflation in the United States this year will appear in the second quarter, and the corresponding year-on-year growth rate of CPI and PCE may exceed 5%. During this period, reflation expectations will continue to dominate overseas market trends. Among the major asset classes, short-term inflation surges are relatively good for commodities, especially strengthening price increases expectations for industrial metals and crude oil. However, the rise in interest rates brought about by reflation will significantly suppress the performance of high-valuation sectors, and U.S. stocks are expected to usher in a style switch from growth to value.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/bbafcff54574f864c03544f2b041b93b\" tg-width=\"835\" tg-height=\"808\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>▌ Risk Factors</p><p>1) Uncertainty about the epidemic and vaccination;</p><p>2) U.S. fiscal and monetary policies continue to exceed expectations;</p><p>3) Unexpected changes in the supply side of crude oil and food have led to large price fluctuations.</p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> source：<a href=\"https://www.zhitongcaijing.com/content/detail/418756.html\">CS宏观研究</a></p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2ef4c19a0bf55be03660e33a33589aac","relate_stocks":{".DJI":"道琼斯"},"source_url":"https://www.zhitongcaijing.com/content/detail/418756.html","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1153301219","content_text":"核心观点\n美国通胀预期上升引发市场担忧。原油价格是对通胀影响最大的因子，基准情形下预计整体抬升通胀中枢0.5-1个百分点，如果剔除原油，核心通胀大概率低于2%，因此美国今年不会有太大的通胀压力。暂时性通胀冲高也不会影响到美联储宽松的货币政策取向。短期来看，今年二季度美国通胀可能冲破5%，再通胀预期仍将主导市场。\n摘要\n▌ 美国通胀预期上升引发市场担忧。近期美国的通胀预期有所上升，我们跟踪的通胀预期指标反映出来的通胀预期已经超过2%。从美债实际利率的走势来看，市场对于美联储货币政策转向的担忧有所升温，从而导致了美债收益率的上行和市场高估值板块的调整。因此我们有必要重新审视当前的通胀预期以及相应的政策取向变化。对此，我们针对今年的美国实际通胀水平进行了预测。\n▌ 构建美国通胀预测模型：以CPI和PCE物价指数作为分析对象，根据食品、能源、核心商品和核心服务对应的分项领先指标构建了预测CPI和PCE物价指数的多因子模型。模型结果显示，因子模型对CPI和PCE的解释程度分别为80%和82%，其中决定通胀走势最关键的因素是原油价格和薪资增速。短期看好原油，但预计全年中枢不会太高。基准情形下，我们预计短期布伦特原油价格可能冲高至65美元/桶以上，下半年会有所回落，全年布油中枢在60美元/桶左右。美国薪资增速延续下行趋势，预计今年美国随着临时性失业的缓和，美国薪资增速也将继续下行，从而对核心服务通胀水平形成拖累。\n▌ 预测结果：按照原油和薪资增速的假设，我们分别给出了乐观、中性、悲观的通胀走势预测。中性情形下(布油价格中枢为60美元/桶左右，薪资增速快速回落至低于疫前水平)，预计美国通胀在今年Q2“冲高回落”，对应全年CPI和PCE物价指数同比增速中枢分别为2.5%和2.1%。\n▌ 总的来看，我们认为今年美国整体通胀压力不大。原油价格是对通胀影响最大的因子，基准情形下预计整体抬升通胀中枢0.5-1个百分点，油价55-65美元/桶分别对应全年CPI通胀中枢在2.3-2.8%，PCE通胀中枢在1.8%-2.3%。如果剔除原油，核心通胀大概率低于2%，因此美国不会有太大的通胀压力。\n▌ 美联储全年大概率维持宽松的政策取向。短期通胀预期的上升更多源于疫情改善和疫苗接种加快带来的经济复苏预期，结合近期美联储官员的表态，我们认为宽松货币取向并未发生任何变化。往后看，虽然预计美国通胀在今年Q2将显著高于2%，但通胀的回升更多受到基数效应和供需错配的影响，目前尚不具备持续大幅抬升的基础，同时美联储对于通胀的容忍度也明显提升，预计暂时性的通胀冲高不会影响到美联储宽松的货币政策取向。\n▌ 短期来看，今年二季度美国通胀可能冲破5%，再通胀预期仍将主导市场。预计美国今年通胀高点将出现在二季度，对应CPI和PCE同比增速可能突破5%，在此期间再通胀预期将继续主导海外市场走势。大类资产中，短期通胀冲高相对利好大宗商品，尤其会强化工业金属和原油的涨价预期。但再通胀带来的利率上行会明显压制高估值板块表现，美股料将迎来成长向价值的风格切换。\n▌风险因素：1)疫情和疫苗接种的不确定性;2)美国财政政策和货币政策持续超预期;3)原油和食品的供给端出现意外变化导致价格大幅波动。\n正文\n▌ 美国通胀预期上升引发市场担忧\n近期美国的通胀预期有所上升，我们跟踪的通胀预期指标反映出来的美国通胀预期已经超过2%。从美债实际利率的走势来看，市场对于美联储货币政策转向的担忧有所升温，从而导致了美债收益率的上行和市场高估值板块的调整。\n我们跟踪的美国通胀预期指标显示：以美国CPI为跟踪目标的1年期通胀预期均已超过2%，其中Michigan 12个月通胀预期已经达到2.5%;以PCE为跟踪目标的通胀预期也已超过1.9%，SPF1年期通胀预期为1.94%，核心通胀预期为1.9%。从历史时间序列来看，SPF和TIPS反映出来的通胀预期近期都出现了明显上行，且均高于疫情前的水平;对于通胀更加敏感的TIPS Breakevens(盈亏平衡通胀率)5年期通胀预期已经达到2.35%，创2014年(美联储结束QE)以来的新高。综合各项指标(取均值)，当前市场对于2021年美国的通胀预期已经达到了2.13%，显著高于美联储2%的平均通胀目标，因此也引发了市场对于美联储货币政策收紧的担忧。\n\n近期海外市场的表现也进一步反映了这一预期。自2月9日以来，短短两周10年期美债收益率上行36bp，最新10年期美债收益率已经向上突破1.5%，调整幅度十分明显。美股中对利率相对敏感的纳斯达克综合指数近期也出现了快速调整，近半月累计跌幅达6%。与此同时，自2月9日以来，美债实际利率触底上行，累计上行幅度超40bp，与美股美债的调整时点基本吻合。我们认为这背后主要反映了市场对于美联储货币政策收紧的担忧有所升温，带动实际利率上行，从而促成了美债短时间内的快速上行和美股高估值板块的剧烈调整。\n因此我们有必要重新审视当前的通胀预期以及相应的政策取向变化。对此，我们针对对今年的美国通胀水平进行了预测。\n\n▌ 通胀的衡量与指标的选取\nCPI和PCE都是衡量美国通胀的重要指标。PCE侧重于衡量更加广泛的物价水平;权重更新频率快，更能体现“替代效应”;因此美联储从2000年开始使用PCE作为政策目标。而CPI侧重于衡量与居民消费支出相关的物价水平;美国每年调整社会保险支付金额一般以CPI为准，大部分的通胀相关金融产品也都挂钩CPI，同样具有较强的政策影响力。两者各有兼顾，对于实际通胀水平的衡量也各有优势。因此本篇报告我们同时以CPI和PCE物价指数作为分析对象，以更好地评估实际通胀水平的趋势。\n\n▌ 美国短期通胀的分析框架\nCPI和PCE物价指数均可以拆分为四大分项，分别是食品、能源、核心商品和核心服务。通过历史对比和统计方法筛选可以发现，这四大因素分别对应的领先指标分别是CRB食品、原油价格、剔除能源的进口价格指数、薪资增速。\n\n我们根据对应的分项领先指标构建了预测CPI和PCE物价指数的多因子模型，利用指标之间的历史相关性动态调整领先/滞后阶数。模型结果显示，因子模型对CPI和PCE的解释程度分别为80%和82%，其中解释能力最强的因子分别是原油价格和薪资增速，这主要与能源波动较大以及核心服务价格指数占比较高(超60%)有关。因此短期决定通胀走势最关键的因素是原油价格和薪资增速。\n\n▌ 原油价格和薪资增速是关键\n为了便于预测，我们需要着重分析原油价格和薪资增速，并结合各变量的领先性对接下来一年多的CPI和PCE物价指数进行预测。\n原油短期看好，但预计全年中枢不会太高。短期原油价格快速上涨主要与海外经济复苏预期和再通胀预期有关，得益于欧美国家疫情改善、疫苗接种进度加快以及拜登财政刺激方案顺利落地的预期。预计短期海外疫情、疫苗和政策都将继续推动全球经济复苏和再通胀预期，也将支撑短期原油的强势表现。\n但全年来看，随着需求和原油价格的预期好转，供应端的压力也会逐渐增加。根据EIA的预测，原油供需基本面有望在今年下半年回归均衡状态，因此原油价格中枢难以继续大幅抬升。同时当前的布油价格已经在美国页岩油的短期盈亏平衡线(45-55美元)以上，页岩油如果增产则会对油价造成较大冲击。因此我们对全年的油价中枢依然维持谨慎乐观的态度。基准情形下，我们预计短期布伦特油价可能冲高至65美元/桶以上，下半年可能会有所回落，全年布油中枢可能在60美元/桶左右。\n\n美国薪资增速延续下行趋势。疫情以来美国劳动力的薪资增速出现了明显的上行，主要原因在于低收入的劳动力退出了就业市场。从疫情期间各行业的失业情况来看，平均薪资水平越低的行业，疫情期间失业人数相对于其疫情前的比例越高。而近期薪资增速有所回落，也一定程度反映了低收入行业(休闲酒店、批发零售、其他服务业等)就业的改善。\n从目前的就业情况来看，美国整体就业缺口高达800多万，预计今年美国就业仍将缓慢恢复，这也意味着薪资增速将延续下行趋势。从2008年金融危机的经验来看，危机爆发后伴随着低收入人群的退出，薪资增速出现半年左右的短暂回升后便持续下行，直到2015年薪资增速才从低位开始回升。因此我们预计至少在2021年之前美国薪资增速都将延续下行趋势，从而对核心服务通胀水平形成拖累。\n\n▌2021年美国通胀走势预测\n总的来看，结合原油、薪资增速的分析，以及我们的通胀预测多因子模型，我们能大致推算出未来一年美国的通胀走势。按照原油和薪资增速的假设，我们分别给出了乐观、中性、悲观的通胀走势预测如下：\n乐观情形下(2021年布油价格中枢为65美元/桶，薪资增速企稳回升至高于疫前水平)，对应的美国全年CPI和PCE物价指数同比增速中枢分别为2.8%和2.3%;\n悲观情形下(布油价格中枢为55美元/桶左右，薪资增速快速回落至低于疫前水平)，对应的美国全年CPI和PCE物价指数同比增速中枢分别为2.3%和1.8%;\n中性情形下(布油价格中枢为60美元/桶左右，薪资增速快速回落至低于疫前水平)，对应的美国全年CPI和PCE物价指数同比增速中枢分别为2.5%和2.1%。\n\n此外，我们也对核心通胀及其分项进行了预测。从各项权重来看，除了食品能源以外，核心通胀主要由核心商品(28%)和核心服务(60%)通胀组成。在中性假设下，我们认为今年美国的核心通胀不会有明显的上升，预计2021年年底在1.7%左右。\n我们预计今年美国核心服务通胀相对去年底有小幅下滑，主要受到薪资增速的拖累，其中影响最大的是住房服务和医疗服务。疫情期间，美国低收入人群租金负担能力下降，租房需求减少，美国国内的租金价格持续下行，预计今年美国的住房服务仍将继续受到租金下滑的拖累，相对去年底整体小幅下滑;医疗服务价格受美国疫情影响短期推高，今年在高基数的影响下料也将出现较为明显的回落。\n但与此同时，随着美国疫情影响的逐渐消散，包括餐饮、住宿、运输、休闲等行业的物价有望企稳回升，对核心服务通胀的影响形成一定支撑。核心商品通胀中非耐用品通胀的表现将好于耐用品，包括服装鞋袜、其他耐用品等价格都有望出现回升，而耐用品价格在高基数作用下预计会小幅下滑。\n总的来看，我们认为今年美国整体通胀压力不大。原油价格是对通胀影响最大的因子，基准情形下预计整体抬升通胀中枢0.5-1个百分点，油价55-65美元/桶分别对应全年CPI通胀中枢在2.3-2.8%，PCE通胀中枢在1.8%-2.3%。如果剔除原油，核心通胀大概率低于2%，因此美国不会有太大的通胀压力。\n\n美联储全年大概率维持宽松的政策取向。短期通胀预期的上升更多源于疫情改善和疫苗接种加快带来的经济复苏预期，结合美联储近期官员的表态，我们认为宽松货币取向并未发生任何变化。往后看，虽然预计美国通胀在今年Q2将显著高于2%，但通胀的回升更多受到基数效应和供需错配的影响，目前尚不具备持续大幅抬升的基础，同时美联储对于通胀的容忍度也明显提升，预计暂时性的通胀冲高不会影响到美联储宽松的货币政策取向。\n短期来看，今年二季度美国通胀可能冲破5%，再通胀预期仍将主导市场。预计美国今年通胀高点将出现在二季度，对应CPI和PCE同比增速可能突破5%，在此期间再通胀预期将继续主导海外市场走势。大类资产中，短期通胀冲高相对利好大宗商品，尤其会强化工业金属和原油的涨价预期。但再通胀带来的利率上行会明显压制高估值板块表现，美股料将迎来成长向价值的风格切换。\n\n▌ 风险因素\n1)疫情和疫苗接种的不确定性;\n2)美国财政政策和货币政策持续超预期;\n3)原油和食品的供给端出现意外变化导致价格大幅波动。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{".DJI":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":814,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":343072887,"gmtCreate":1617667049349,"gmtModify":1704701482264,"author":{"id":"3571557586397050","authorId":"3571557586397050","name":"AhOng","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e3edadf648d1a9539369c3fdbd0e0a61","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3571557586397050","idStr":"3571557586397050"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Go Korea&nbsp;","listText":"Go Korea&nbsp;","text":"Go Korea","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":3,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/343072887","repostId":"2125764455","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"2125764455","kind":"highlight","pubTimestamp":1617657118,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/2125764455?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2021-04-06 05:11","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"Credit Suisse's head of investment banking business to leave as it suffers heavy losses on Archegos","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2125764455","media":"新浪财经","summary":"　　瑞信集团的投资银行业务负责人Brian Chin势将离开该公司，这也是Archegos Capital Management强平事件后损失惨重的瑞信所进行的广泛改组的一部分。　　知情人士称，Chin的离职最早将在周二宣布。瑞信因Archegos相关的损失可能达到数十亿美元。两位知情人士表示，该公司准备在本周向投资者公布有关Archegos后果的最新消息，并计划对其主经纪商业务进行评估。　　瑞信一位代表拒绝就Chin的离职以及其它举措发表评论。Chin没有立即回应置评请求。","content":"<p><img src=\"http://n.sinaimg.cn/finance/transform/93/w550h343/20210406/d1da-knipfse6316228.jpg\" tg-width=\"550\" tg-height=\"343\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>The bank is also discussing replacing its chief risk officer while retaining CEO Credit Suisse is poised to give investors an update this week on Archegos' consequences Brian Chin, head of investment banking at Credit Suisse Group, is set to leave the company, which is also part of Archegos Capital Management's forced liquidation. Part of a broad reshuffle of Credit Suisse, which suffered heavy losses after the incident.</p><p>Chin's departure will be announced as early as Tuesday, people familiar with the matter said.</p><p>The bank's leadership is also discussing replacing Chief Risk Officer Lara Warner while retaining CEO Thomas Gottstein. Credit Suisse's Archegos-related losses could reach billions. The company is poised to give investors an update on Archegos'consequences this week and plans to conduct an assessment of its prime broker business, two people familiar with the matter said.</p><p>Chin was promoted to chief executive of the unit last year after Gottstein combined its investment banking and trading businesses.</p><p>A Credit Suisse representative declined to comment on Chin's departure and other moves. Chin did not immediately respond to a request for comment.</p>","source":"sina_us","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Credit Suisse's head of investment banking business to leave as it suffers heavy losses on Archegos</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nCredit Suisse's head of investment banking business to leave as it suffers heavy losses on Archegos\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">新浪财经</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-04-06 05:11</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><img src=\"http://n.sinaimg.cn/finance/transform/93/w550h343/20210406/d1da-knipfse6316228.jpg\" tg-width=\"550\" tg-height=\"343\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>The bank is also discussing replacing its chief risk officer while retaining CEO Credit Suisse is poised to give investors an update this week on Archegos' consequences Brian Chin, head of investment banking at Credit Suisse Group, is set to leave the company, which is also part of Archegos Capital Management's forced liquidation. Part of a broad reshuffle of Credit Suisse, which suffered heavy losses after the incident.</p><p>Chin's departure will be announced as early as Tuesday, people familiar with the matter said.</p><p>The bank's leadership is also discussing replacing Chief Risk Officer Lara Warner while retaining CEO Thomas Gottstein. Credit Suisse's Archegos-related losses could reach billions. The company is poised to give investors an update on Archegos'consequences this week and plans to conduct an assessment of its prime broker business, two people familiar with the matter said.</p><p>Chin was promoted to chief executive of the unit last year after Gottstein combined its investment banking and trading businesses.</p><p>A Credit Suisse representative declined to comment on Chin's departure and other moves. Chin did not immediately respond to a request for comment.</p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> source：<a href=\"https://finance.sina.com.cn/stock/usstock/c/2021-04-06/doc-ikmyaawa7450915.shtml\">新浪财经</a></p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"http://n.sinaimg.cn/finance/transform/93/w550h343/20210406/d1da-knipfse6316228.jpg","relate_stocks":{},"source_url":"https://finance.sina.com.cn/stock/usstock/c/2021-04-06/doc-ikmyaawa7450915.shtml","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2125764455","content_text":"该行还在讨论更换首席风险官，同时保留CEO瑞信准备在本周向投资者公布有关Archegos后果的最新消息瑞信集团的投资银行业务负责人Brian Chin势将离开该公司，这也是Archegos Capital Management强平事件后损失惨重的瑞信所进行的广泛改组的一部分。知情人士称，Chin的离职最早将在周二宣布。该行领导层还在讨论更换首席风险官Lara Warner，同时保留首席执行官Thomas Gottstein。瑞信因Archegos相关的损失可能达到数十亿美元。两位知情人士表示，该公司准备在本周向投资者公布有关Archegos后果的最新消息，并计划对其主经纪商业务进行评估。Chin是去年Gottstein将投行与交易业务合并后被提拔为该部门首席执行官的。瑞信一位代表拒绝就Chin的离职以及其它举措发表评论。Chin没有立即回应置评请求。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":599,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":343076190,"gmtCreate":1617666999110,"gmtModify":1704701481134,"author":{"id":"3571557586397050","authorId":"3571557586397050","name":"AhOng","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e3edadf648d1a9539369c3fdbd0e0a61","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3571557586397050","idStr":"3571557586397050"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Still have ?","listText":"Still have ?","text":"Still have ?","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":3,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/343076190","repostId":"2125764213","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":707,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":349012197,"gmtCreate":1617504920719,"gmtModify":1704700059695,"author":{"id":"3571557586397050","authorId":"3571557586397050","name":"AhOng","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e3edadf648d1a9539369c3fdbd0e0a61","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3571557586397050","idStr":"3571557586397050"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/CDHSF\">$CDL Hospitality Trust(CDHSF)$</a> gathering power","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/CDHSF\">$CDL Hospitality Trust(CDHSF)$</a> gathering power","text":"$CDL Hospitality Trust(CDHSF)$ gathering power","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e19b17f80e7924018b550306ca0997a6","width":"1125","height":"2264"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":4,"commentSize":2,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/349012197","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":936,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0}],"lives":[]}