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2022-07-14
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2022-06-16
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2022-08-19
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2022-06-20
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2022-06-15
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2022-04-28
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2022-04-23
$高通(QCOM)$
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2022-08-09
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2022-08-05
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2022-06-19
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2022-06-16
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The Fed's rate hike of 75 basis points has become the consensus of Wall Street. How far are U.S. stocks from bottoming out?
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2022-09-13
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2022-08-17
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2022-08-12
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2022-08-08
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2022-07-24
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2022-07-19
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2022-07-18
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2022-06-19
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2022-06-09
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","text":"$美国银行(BAC)$[流泪]","images":[{"img":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/5d316822681bc023168f6f93250c03b0","width":"1080","height":"1920"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9936744799","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":738,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9998386150,"gmtCreate":1660947484272,"gmtModify":1676536426268,"author":{"id":"3572958738473495","authorId":"3572958738473495","name":"LI_CHUN","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/60e79a6fd440b62595feb97d20d45237","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3572958738473495","idStr":"3572958738473495"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"OK","listText":"OK","text":"OK","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9998386150","repostId":"1175877604","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1175877604","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1660877622,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1175877604?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2022-08-19 10:53","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"U.S. stocks face another \"big test\" on Friday: more than $2 trillion in option contracts are about to expire!","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1175877604","media":"智通财经网","summary":"人们相信衍生品市场在抑制波动性方面发挥了某种关键作。","content":"<p><html><head></head><body>Author: Zhao Jinbin</p><p>With August so far remaining the calmest month of the year for U.S. stocks, traders are keeping a close eye on $2 trillion in options expiring on Friday for signs of whether the calm will continue.</p><p>At present, the market debate is centered on the belief that derivatives markets play some kind of key role in curbing volatility, forcing rules-based quantitative traders to buy stocks, which in turn lures a broader spectrum of investors back into the market to chase gains.</p><p>But after that, some strategists warned that this benign activity in the options market, usually driven by Wall Street traders, could disappear at a critical moment.</p><p>From the upcoming annual meeting of global central banks in Jackson Hole, to inflation and employment data waiting to be released, to the Federal Reserve's policy statement, the coming weeks are full of catalysts that could trigger market chaos.</p><p>Amy Wu Silverman, equity derivatives strategist at RBC Capital Markets, said: \"For some technical reasons, volatility is likely to continue to be suppressed as options contracts expire this Friday, and the market is likely to continue to receive relative support. But when people return to When we focus on the market, volatility may pick up again.\"</p><p>About $2 trillion of options contracts will expire, forcing holders to either roll over existing positions or start new ones. Goldman Sachs strategist Rocky Fishman estimates that about $975 billion of S&P 500-related options contracts and $430 billion of individual stock-related options contracts will expire this Friday.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/93113ec4911592a6649582c5bf511466\" tg-width=\"668\" tg-height=\"407\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p>Since mid-June, the stock market has recovered as investors who exited the stock market during the first half of the crash amid concerns that the Fed's aggressive anti-inflation measures could plunge the economy into a recession went from an initial short squeeze to a buying aggression. A market cap of about $7 trillion. Since then, stocks have continued to recover somewhat as data showed a strong job market and lower-than-expected inflation.</p><p>Along the way, traders flocked to the call options market to catch up on the surprise rally in stocks. When balancing the books, options traders are trapped in \"long gamma\" (long volatility) positions, which requires them to maintain neutral market exposure against current stock trends. Therefore, under the influence of this process, the market has returned to calm. According to the Chicago Board Options Exchange (CBOE) Volatility Index VIX, the index averaged 21 in August, which is on track to reach its lowest level since November last year.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/43e527d06b419c21721b91a4f6f7d8dc\" tg-width=\"653\" tg-height=\"377\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p>From a broad perspective, call contracts are changing hands faster than put contracts, with the 10-day average of the CBOE stock put-to-call ratio hovering near a four-month low, indicating that investors are betting on the upside of the stock market. Interest is increasing.</p><p>Brent Kochuba, founder of analytics services firm SpotGamma, said traders will try to push the S&P 500 to 4,300 to make their options contracts pay off. Failure to reach this threshold means the recent rally is waning, which could attract more sellers. \"Everyone is on the'bulls' side right now,\" Kochuba said.</p><p>Charlie McElligott, cross-asset strategist at Nomura Securities, expects Friday's options expiration to open the door to greater price volatility after the buffer of trader hedges wanes.</p><p>If inflation is higher than expected, the language of Fed policymakers will also become more hawkish, which will trigger turmoil across asset markets, he said. On the other hand, barring any negative macro shocks, fund managers are under pressure to continue chasing the upside as their equity positions are relatively low.</p><p></body></html></p>","source":"highlight_zhitongcaijin","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>U.S. stocks face another \"big test\" on Friday: more than $2 trillion in option contracts are about to expire!</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nU.S. stocks face another \"big test\" on Friday: more than $2 trillion in option contracts are about to expire!\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">智通财经网</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2022-08-19 10:53</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><html><head></head><body>Author: Zhao Jinbin</p><p>With August so far remaining the calmest month of the year for U.S. stocks, traders are keeping a close eye on $2 trillion in options expiring on Friday for signs of whether the calm will continue.</p><p>At present, the market debate is centered on the belief that derivatives markets play some kind of key role in curbing volatility, forcing rules-based quantitative traders to buy stocks, which in turn lures a broader spectrum of investors back into the market to chase gains.</p><p>But after that, some strategists warned that this benign activity in the options market, usually driven by Wall Street traders, could disappear at a critical moment.</p><p>From the upcoming annual meeting of global central banks in Jackson Hole, to inflation and employment data waiting to be released, to the Federal Reserve's policy statement, the coming weeks are full of catalysts that could trigger market chaos.</p><p>Amy Wu Silverman, equity derivatives strategist at RBC Capital Markets, said: \"For some technical reasons, volatility is likely to continue to be suppressed as options contracts expire this Friday, and the market is likely to continue to receive relative support. But when people return to When we focus on the market, volatility may pick up again.\"</p><p>About $2 trillion of options contracts will expire, forcing holders to either roll over existing positions or start new ones. Goldman Sachs strategist Rocky Fishman estimates that about $975 billion of S&P 500-related options contracts and $430 billion of individual stock-related options contracts will expire this Friday.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/93113ec4911592a6649582c5bf511466\" tg-width=\"668\" tg-height=\"407\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p>Since mid-June, the stock market has recovered as investors who exited the stock market during the first half of the crash amid concerns that the Fed's aggressive anti-inflation measures could plunge the economy into a recession went from an initial short squeeze to a buying aggression. A market cap of about $7 trillion. Since then, stocks have continued to recover somewhat as data showed a strong job market and lower-than-expected inflation.</p><p>Along the way, traders flocked to the call options market to catch up on the surprise rally in stocks. When balancing the books, options traders are trapped in \"long gamma\" (long volatility) positions, which requires them to maintain neutral market exposure against current stock trends. Therefore, under the influence of this process, the market has returned to calm. According to the Chicago Board Options Exchange (CBOE) Volatility Index VIX, the index averaged 21 in August, which is on track to reach its lowest level since November last year.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/43e527d06b419c21721b91a4f6f7d8dc\" tg-width=\"653\" tg-height=\"377\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p>From a broad perspective, call contracts are changing hands faster than put contracts, with the 10-day average of the CBOE stock put-to-call ratio hovering near a four-month low, indicating that investors are betting on the upside of the stock market. Interest is increasing.</p><p>Brent Kochuba, founder of analytics services firm SpotGamma, said traders will try to push the S&P 500 to 4,300 to make their options contracts pay off. Failure to reach this threshold means the recent rally is waning, which could attract more sellers. \"Everyone is on the'bulls' side right now,\" Kochuba said.</p><p>Charlie McElligott, cross-asset strategist at Nomura Securities, expects Friday's options expiration to open the door to greater price volatility after the buffer of trader hedges wanes.</p><p>If inflation is higher than expected, the language of Fed policymakers will also become more hawkish, which will trigger turmoil across asset markets, he said. On the other hand, barring any negative macro shocks, fund managers are under pressure to continue chasing the upside as their equity positions are relatively low.</p><p></body></html></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> source：<a href=\"https://www.zhitongcaijing.com/content/detail/774154.html\">智通财经网</a></p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3e90f0093c95026e18203fb8d91b976d","relate_stocks":{".DJI":"道琼斯"},"source_url":"https://www.zhitongcaijing.com/content/detail/774154.html","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/6ca2dcdccfa2217fb20a0351f4efe814","article_id":"1175877604","content_text":"作者： 赵锦彬鉴于8月迄今仍为美国股市今年最为平静的一个月，交易员们正密切关注即将在周五到期的2万亿美元期权，以寻找这种平静是否会延续下去的迹象。目前，市场争论的焦点在于，人们相信衍生品市场在抑制波动性方面发挥了某种关键作用，从而迫使基于规则的量化交易员购买股票，进而吸引更广泛的投资者重返市场以追逐收益。但在这之后，一些策略师警告称，期权市场的这种良性活动(通常由华尔街交易商推动)可能会在关键时刻消失。从即将召开的杰克逊霍尔全球央行年会，到等待公布的通胀和就业数据，再到美联储的政策声明，未来几周都充满了可能引发市场混乱的催化剂。加拿大皇家银行资本市场股票衍生品策略师Amy Wu Silverman表示：“由于一些技术原因，在本周五期权合约到期之际，波动性可能会继续受到抑制，市场可能会继续获得相对支撑。但当人们重新聚精会神盯紧市场时，波动性可能会重新回升。”约2万亿美元的期权合约将到期，迫使持有人要么展期现有头寸，要么开始新的头寸。据高盛策略师Rocky Fishman估计，其中有约9750亿美元与标普500指数相关的期权合约和4300亿美元与个股相关的期权合约将于本周五到期。自6月中旬以来，由于在上半年股市大跌期间因担心美联储激进的抗通胀举措可能令经济陷入衰退而退出股市的投资者，从最初的逼空变成了大举买入，股市已经恢复了约7万亿美元的市值。此后，随着数据显示就业市场的强劲，且通胀低于预期，股市继续有所回升。一路上，交易员们蜂拥至看涨期权市场，以赶上股市出人意料的反弹。在平衡账目时，期权交易商被困在“long gamma”(指做多波动率)头寸中，这使得他们需要逆着当前的股票趋势保持中性的市场敞口。因此在这一进程的一定作用下，市场恢复了平静。据芝加哥期权交易所(CBOE)波动率指数VIX显示，该指数在8月份的平均水平为21，有望达到去年11月以来的最低水平。而从广泛的角度看，看涨合约的易手速度要快于看跌合约，CBOE股票看跌期权与看涨期权比率的10日平均水平徘徊在四个月低点附近，这表明投资者对股市上行的押注兴趣正在增加。分析服务公司SpotGamma创始人Brent Kochuba表示，交易员将试图把标普500指数推高至4300点，以使其期权合约获得回报。如果未能达到这一门槛，则意味着最近的反弹势头正在减弱，这可能会引来更多卖家。“现在每个人都站在‘多头一方’，”Kochuba表示。野村证券跨资产策略师Charlie McElligott预计，在交易商对冲的缓冲作用减弱后，周五的期权到期将为更大的价格波动打开大门。他表示，如果通胀高于预期，美联储政策制定者的措辞也会变得更加鹰派，这将引发整个资产市场的动荡。另一方面，除非出现任何负面的宏观冲击，否则基金经理面临着继续追逐上涨的压力，因为他们的股票头寸相对较低。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{".DJI":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1052,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9991792702,"gmtCreate":1660876575909,"gmtModify":1676536416969,"author":{"id":"3572958738473495","authorId":"3572958738473495","name":"LI_CHUN","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/60e79a6fd440b62595feb97d20d45237","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3572958738473495","idStr":"3572958738473495"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/BAC\">$美国银行(BAC)$</a>up","listText":"<a 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14:42","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"The Fed's rate hike of 75 basis points has become the consensus of Wall Street. How far are U.S. stocks from bottoming out?","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1183345309","media":"第一财经","summary":"纽交所交易员安德森说：“突然间，市场就达成了共识。”从50个基点到75个基点，美联储加息预期似乎在一夜之间就发生了巨变，投资者也似乎朝夕之间就完成了心理建设。“突然间，市场就达成了共识。”纽交所交易员","content":"<p><div>\"Suddenly, there's a consensus,\" said Anderson, a trader on the New York Stock Exchange. From 50 basis points to 75 basis points, the Fed's rate hike expectations seem to have changed dramatically overnight, and investors seem to have completed mental construction overnight. \"Suddenly, the market reached a consensus.\" Timothy Anderson, a trader on the New York Stock Exchange, explained to China Business News that the May Consumer Price Index (CPI) and the June University of Michigan Consumer Confidence Index released on the 10th clearly shows that the inflation problem that the American people are most concerned about is still worsening. \"Fed officials must tell consumers...</p><p><a href=\"https://www.yicai.com/news/101444082.html\">Web link</a></div></p>","source":"dyvj","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>The Fed's rate hike of 75 basis points has become the consensus of Wall Street. How far are U.S. stocks from bottoming out?</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nThe Fed's rate hike of 75 basis points has become the consensus of Wall Street. How far are U.S. stocks from bottoming out?\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">第一财经</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2022-06-15 14:42</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><div>\"Suddenly, there's a consensus,\" said Anderson, a trader on the New York Stock Exchange. From 50 basis points to 75 basis points, the Fed's rate hike expectations seem to have changed dramatically overnight, and investors seem to have completed mental construction overnight. \"Suddenly, the market reached a consensus.\" Timothy Anderson, a trader on the New York Stock Exchange, explained to China Business News that the May Consumer Price Index (CPI) and the June University of Michigan Consumer Confidence Index released on the 10th clearly shows that the inflation problem that the American people are most concerned about is still worsening. \"Fed officials must tell consumers...</p><p><a href=\"https://www.yicai.com/news/101444082.html\">Web link</a></div></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> source：<a href=\"https://www.yicai.com/news/101444082.html\">第一财经</a></p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0f9e9a265cb0e7e8cb195039b2fe24a4","relate_stocks":{"161125":"标普500","513500":"标普500ETF","SPY":"标普500ETF","DDM":"2倍做多道指ETF-ProShares",".DJI":"道琼斯","SH":"做空标普500-Proshares","QID":"两倍做空纳斯达克指数ETF-ProShares","IVV":"标普500ETF-iShares","DOG":"道指ETF-ProShares做空",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite","BK4534":"瑞士信贷持仓","PSQ":"做空纳斯达克100指数ETF-ProShares","UDOW":"三倍做多道指30ETF-ProShares","BK4550":"红杉资本持仓","UPRO":"三倍做多标普500ETF-ProShares",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index","SDS":"两倍做空标普500 ETF-ProShares","SQQQ":"纳指三倍做空ETF"},"source_url":"https://www.yicai.com/news/101444082.html","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1183345309","content_text":"纽交所交易员安德森说：“突然间，市场就达成了共识。”从50个基点到75个基点，美联储加息预期似乎在一夜之间就发生了巨变，投资者也似乎朝夕之间就完成了心理建设。“突然间，市场就达成了共识。”纽交所交易员安德森（Timothy Anderson）向第一财经记者解释道，10日出炉的5月消费者价格指数（CPI）和6月密歇根大学消费者信心指数明确显示，美国民众最关心的通胀问题仍在恶化。“联储官员必须向消费者和投资者表态，抗通胀，他们是认真的。”安德森认为，“认真”的表现形式就是扩大加息的幅度。截至第一财经记者发稿时，芝商所利率观察工具（FedWatch Tool）显示，押注15日美联储加息75个基点的概率由前一日的34.6%骤然升至95.8%，而一周前，仅为3.9%。高盛、摩根大通、富国银行、德意志银行、巴克莱和杰夫瑞等多家机构均预测，美联储将在15日后宣布75个基点加息，若预测准确，这将成1994年以来美联储最大幅度的单次加息。6月加息75个基点的概率高达95.8%（图源：芝商所官网）纠错？美联储以往通常尽可能与市场充分沟通，避免市场震荡。在6月4日开始的静默期之前，包括鲍威尔在内的不少美联储官员表示支持本周加息50个基点，并在7月再次加息50个基点。那么，市场为何认为美联储将会“食言”？券商OANDA高级市场分析师莫亚（Edward Moya）对第一财经记者表示，美联储转变态度实则是纠正错误。“一直以来，鲍威尔对通胀存在错判，如果美联储再不积极加息，恐有政策失误的风险。”他称，美联储正试图避免上世纪70年代犯过的错误，75个基点的加息幅度将是向正确的政策方向迈出一步。对冲基金Pershing Square创始人阿克曼（Bill Ackman）则认为，这将是美联储挽回市场信心的机会。他表示，美联储允许通胀失控的现实，令股市和信贷市场对美联储失去信心，他甚至认为，6月、7月及随后的议息会议加息100个基点会是更好的方案。“美联储越早达到终端利率，就能越快开始放松货币政策，市场就能越早实现复苏。”他说。靴子落地后，市场能否筑底？美股正在抢跑美联储，为更激进的加息前景重新定价。隔夜，标普500指数五连阴，继续于熊市区间下探，跌至2021年1月以来的低位，较其1月历史高位跌超22%。上次熊市期间，标普500指数较前高下跌33.9%才开始反弹。另有数据显示，标普500指数熊市平均持续时间超过18个月。美国银行最新月度调查显示，鹰派央行被投资者视为市场面临的最大尾部风险，全球经济衰退是第二大风险，基金经理对全球经济前景的悲观情绪达到历史之最，对滞胀的担忧达到2008年金融危机以来的最高水平。美银首席全球股票策略师哈奈特（Michael Hartnett）在报告中写道，华尔街悲观情绪堪忧。莫亚对第一财经记者表示，即便美联储靴子落地，短期之内华尔街将很难看到任何可能的反弹。安德森则认为，金融市场将欣然接受75个基点的加息，可能不会立刻看到美股反弹，但股市的下行压力应该会得到一定缓解。本周是央行超级周，除了美联储，英格兰银行、日本央行等都将公布利率决议，然而，各国都面临自身的经济挑战，在能源、食品价格飙升，供应链问题加剧等全球问题上越发难以独善其身。荷兰国际集团（ING）宏观研究全球主管布热斯基（Carsten 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