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Is the "end" of fuel vehicles coming? There must be a battle between Tesla and BBA
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</a>","text":"$Advaxis, Inc.(ADXSD)$","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1558677bfc3272a5f578cbc90fb0ff8c","width":"1080","height":"2182"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/626560752","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":635,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":338501326,"gmtCreate":1609926792765,"gmtModify":1704980890651,"author":{"id":"3573014764681345","authorId":"3573014764681345","name":"T3478469778","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/89c999155efb5940688f768da3078bd2","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3573014764681345","idStr":"3573014764681345"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"。","listText":"。","text":"。","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/338501326","repostId":"1134300311","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1134300311","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1609920834,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1134300311?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2021-01-06 16:13","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"Is the \"end\" of fuel vehicles coming? There must be a battle between Tesla and BBA","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1134300311","media":"连线Insight","summary":"特斯拉的野心到底有多大？","content":"<p>Text/Zhou Xiongfei</p><p>On New Year's Day,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TSLA\">Tesla</a>It has thrown a blockbuster on the new energy vehicle industry.</p><p>Two domestically produced Model Ys are officially launched-the Model Y Performance high-performance version with a starting price of 369,900 yuan and the Model Y long-range version with a starting price of 339,900 yuan.</p><p>Coinciding with the model launch is the price cut. Among them, the starting price of the Model Y long-range version has been reduced by 148,100 yuan compared with the previous 488,000 yuan; Compared with the previous 535,000 yuan, the Model Y Performance high-performance version has even been reduced by 165,100 yuan.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/29e976f688b8134332bc238c2c20030f\" tg-width=\"550\" tg-height=\"886\">Domestic Model Y is on sale, source: Tesla official Weibo</p><p>The price of the domestic Model Y was sharply reduced immediately after its launch. In the eyes of the outside world, domestic new energy car companies represented by the \"three car-making brothers\" will bear the brunt of the impact.</p><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/XPEV\">XPeng vehicles</a>CEO He XPeng took the lead in making a statement in the circle of friends, \"We are quite confident about the price reduction of friends (Tesla) on New Year's Day, and we didn't even hold a conference call. The price reduction has proved to be just a marketing method, and it is a double-edged sword.\"</p><p>Compared with XPeng's self-confidence,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NIO\">Nio</a>These days, I've been rather uneasy.</p><p>According to Jiemian News, due to the launch of the domestically produced Model Y, Nio suffered a large-scale unsubscription, which paralyzed Nio's official website. Soon, Nio responded: \"The news that the official website system suffered a large-scale refund is untrue, and we have filed a complaint against the relevant platform.\"</p><p>From the perspective of the industry, although the price reduction of the domestic Model Y will have some impact on the domestic new energy market, it will only be a short-term impact. In contrast, traditional fuel vehicle brands such as BMW, Mercedes-Benz and Audi will be more impacted.</p><p>At the same time, from price, battery life, brand power and<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/5RE.SI\">smart</a>In terms of electric models produced by fuel vehicle brands are even more powerless to compete with Tesla's domestically produced Model Y.</p><p>It is conceivable that in the future, Tesla will kill everyone in the traditional fuel vehicle market.</p><p>However, Tesla's ambitions don't stop there.</p><p><b>1</b> <b>Have the \"three car-making brothers\" been hit hard?</b></p><p>\"There were really too many people looking at cars a few days ago, and there was almost no time to rest.\" A Tesla store sales employee told Wired Travel.</p><p>During the New Year's Day holiday that has passed, in addition to many 5A-level scenic spots in China, the Tesla Experience Center also showed a sea of people.</p><p>In addition, Tesla's official website was once unable to be refreshed due to too many orders. \"It's obviously because (orders) have exploded again, and these are all expected,\" a person familiar with Tesla sales told Daily Economic News.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9afd97d783c9662dd4a6008f4db51394\" tg-width=\"550\" tg-height=\"268\">Tesla responded to the overcrowded official website, source Tesla customer support</p><p>In fact, this is not the first time Tesla has cut prices for domestic models.</p><p>Wired Insight once wrote in \"Price cuts\" cut leeks \"and record performance, where did Tesla win?\" The article described in detail Tesla's five price cuts for domestic Model 3 models last year, and after each price cut, there was a crowded scene.</p><p>As for Tesla's first SUV model sold in China, the domestic Model Y, it dropped by 160,000 after the sale, which not only far exceeded market expectations, but also was higher than the total price reduction of 50,000 of the domestic Model 3 five times. range. It is conceivable that such a price reduction is very attractive to consumers.</p><p>In addition to the \"really fragrant\" price, the domestic Model Y itself is also very capable of hitting.</p><p>According to Tesla's official website, the domestic Model Y long-range version has a cruising range of 594 kilometers and can accelerate from 0 to 100 kilometers in 5.1 seconds; The high-performance version has a battery life of 480 kilometers and can accelerate from 0 to 100 kilometers in 3.7 seconds. In terms of intelligence, both models also have OTA upgrades and automatic driving assistance systems.</p><p>Because of this, once the domestically produced Model Y was launched, it was regarded as a \"big killer\", and domestic new energy vehicle companies such as Nio, XPeng, and Ideal were directly affected.</p><p>\"There is no doubt that the domestically produced Model Y will directly compete with Nio's ES6 and EC6.\" Last year, Nio CEO Li Bin said this in an interview with the media. From the perspective of model and price alone, Model Y, ES6 and EC6 are both medium-sized SUVs, and the price of 339,900 for the former is also very close to the price of 358,000 and 368,000 for the low-end versions of the latter.</p><p>In addition, in terms of maximum speed and battery life, Nio's two cars do not have an advantage.</p><p>According to data from Nio's official website, the domestic Model Y has a maximum speed of 217km/h and a battery life of 594km; The top speed of ES6 and EC6 is both 200km/h, and the battery life is 420km and 430km respectively. The battery life of Model Y is much higher than that of the latter two models.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e042934554483dd9cb109835956850c0\" tg-width=\"550\" tg-height=\"124\">Comparison details of Tesla Mdoel Y with Nio ES6 and EC6, connected travel mapping</p><p>Although both Nio models can be equipped with 100kWh battery packs, giving a cruising range of more than 600 kilometers, they need to increase the price by 58,000 yuan, and the price of the whole vehicle exceeds 400,000 yuan, which is 40,000-50,000 higher than the previous price.</p><p>In comparison, the Model Y became a better choice.</p><p>As a result, according to multiple media reports, when the domestically produced Model Y was released, many Nio car owners reported that \"unsubscribing from Nio to change the Model Y\" and \"unsubscribing has crowded Nio's official website\". \"and other news. In this regard, although Nio officials quickly refuted rumors, there are still many discussions in the industry.</p><p>In addition to Nio, Ideal and XPeng, whose flagship products are both SUVs, have also been included in the range of the domestic Model Y. But compared with Nio, Ideal and XPeng have a calmer attitude.</p><p>This is related to the differentiated positioning of XPeng vehicles. Although the XPeng G3 is an SUV, the price of 140,000-190,000 just widens the price gap with the Model Y.</p><p>Ideal ONE, a subsidiary of Ideal, is also an SUV, and its price of 328,000 is very similar to that of the domestic Model Y. However, because the former uses an extended-range power mode, it also forms a certain difference from the Model Y pure electric mode.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c27f2c6d9cac42ead540cd3c42225889\" tg-width=\"550\" tg-height=\"114\">Tesla Model Y (middle), XPeng P7 (right), Ideal ONE, source Tesla/XPeng Motors/<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/LI\">Li Auto</a>Guanwei</p><p>For now, among the \"three car-making brothers\", Nio has been greatly affected, but from the perspective of the industry, such an impact will only be short-term.</p><p>\"Products such as Nio Motors and XPeng Motors have actually distanced themselves from Tesla products, and have formed some unique advantages of their own, which have been recognized by consumers. This can be seen from their sales.\" Cui Dongshu, secretary general of the Passenger Car Association, told Jiemian News.</p><p>At the beginning of this year, Nio, XPeng and Ideal all announced their sales results for last year.</p><p>According to data released by the three companies, in 2020, Nio delivered a total of 43,728 vehicles, a year-on-year increase of 112.6%; XPeng vehicles delivered a total of 27,041 vehicles, a year-on-year increase of 112%. Li Auto's performance ranks in the middle of the two. In 2020, a total of 32,624 Ideal ONE vehicles were delivered.</p><p>\"The loyalty of Nio, XPeng and the ideal circle group is extremely high. I don't think the impact of this area should be very great. The main impact of the price reduction of Tesla Model Y is still on the traditional car market.\" Cui Dongshu told the media.</p><p><b>2</b> <b>Is the end of fuel vehicles coming?</b></p><p>\"Fuel vehicles will disappear.\"</p><p>When Tesla CEO Elon Musk was asked by the media about his views on fuel vehicles in September last year, he used this sentence as an answer. Perhaps he felt that it was not rigorous enough. He added that \"there may be more. A little amount\". In his view, buying a fuel car is like \"riding a horse with a flip phone\".</p><p>With the launch of the domestically produced Model Y, Musk's attitude towards fuel vehicles immediately became the group will within Tesla.</p><p>According to<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/00700\">Tencent</a>Shenzhen Web reported that on January 1 this year, rumors such as \"today is the beginning of the end of fuel vehicles\" spread within Tesla. It's not just Tesla who has the same view. Qin Lihong, co-founder and president of Nio, once said, \"We are happy that any electric vehicle company in the world sells well. The next 10 years will be ten years when electric vehicles will continue to gain the share of fuel vehicles.\"</p><p>Wired Insight once wrote in \"Tesla's domestic Model Y is about to be launched, will Nio encounter the strongest threat?\" The article called the domestic Model Y Tesla's \"sharp tooth\". Looking at it now, compared with Nio, the fuel vehicle industry represented by BMW, Mercedes-Benz and Audi (BBA) is more threatened.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/69aed846fc260deaaf1f5a666afcbd5f\" tg-width=\"550\" tg-height=\"392\">Domestic model Y, picture source Tesla official website</p><p>Looking at the global luxury car market, China is already the largest luxury car market in the world. According to data from the Qianzhan Research Institute, in the regional distribution of global luxury car sales in 2019, China ranked first with a share of 31%. Looking at the domestic luxury car market, the three major BBA brands have always been among the top three.</p><p>According to data from CRRC, in the first half of 2020, Mercedes-Benz ranked first in domestic luxury car sales with cumulative sales of 339,800 units, while BMW and Audi ranked second and third with cumulative sales of 324,500 units and 301,200 units respectively. According to statistics, the three BBA brands occupy a total of 66.7% of the domestic market share.</p><p>Specific to the 300,000-400,000 yuan luxury car market, BMW owns the BMW X3, with an official price of 389,800-479,800 yuan, while the models of Audi and Mercedes-Benz in this price range are the Audi Q5L and Mercedes-Benz GLC, with prices respectively. They are 387,800-498,000 yuan and 397,800-587,800 yuan respectively.</p><p>A closer look reveals that these three models are all medium-sized SUVs, which are the same as the domestic Model Y model, and the latter is also the main high-end electric SUV. Therefore, there must be a battle between Model Y and these three models.</p><p>What cannot be ignored is that Model Y already has huge advantages. Not only does it have the intelligence that these fuel vehicles do not have, but at the same time, the price of 339,000 is much lower than these three models.</p><p>In addition to these, Model Y, as a new energy vehicle, can also be exempted from paying 10% vehicle purchase tax. It is conceivable that in the SUV market with the same price, Model Y, which can enjoy a better high-end and intelligent experience at a lower price, will pose a huge threat to BBA's fuel models.</p><p>According to Chedongxi reports, after the domestic Mdoel Y was released, not only young people went to the Tesla Experience Center to see cars, but also many old car owners who tend to buy BBA and other brands, or who already have models under the BBA brand, also went to see them. Model Y.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/fb44b05fbd5e0992280bd42c39f056dd\" tg-width=\"550\" tg-height=\"733\">After the domestic Model Y was released, a domestic Tesla experience center was overcrowded. Source interviewee</p><p>In order to cope with such risks, traditional fuel vehicle brands such as BMW, Mercedes-Benz and Audi are also deploying in the field of new energy vehicles.</p><p>In November 2019, Mercedes-Benz released its first electric medium-sized SUV, the Mercedes-Benz EQC, in the domestic market. Coincidentally, in the same month, Audi also released its first electric SUV, the Audi e-tron. In November last year, BMW also launched its electric SUV BMW iX3.</p><p>However, these three new energy models are still medium-sized SUVs, but in terms of price, BMW iX3 and Mercedes-Benz EQC are 40,000-50,000 more expensive than fuel vehicles of the same level, and Audi e-tron is even more expensive than Audi Q5L of the same level. More than 200,000 more expensive. This means that these electric models have no price advantage compared with Model Y, which is also a medium-sized electric SUV.</p><p>As the \"life gate\" of electric vehicles, BBA's electric vehicles do not have advantages.</p><p>According to data from various official websites of Connected Travel Statistics, the BMW iX3 has a battery life of 500km, the Audi e-tron has a battery life of 470km, and the Mercedes-Benz EQC has a battery life of only 415km. In comparison, the battery life of Model Y is as high as 594km.</p><p>In addition to price and battery life, intelligence has also become a particularly important factor for consumers when purchasing electric vehicles. At this point, BBA's electric vehicles are also in decline.</p><p>OTA (Over the Air) is the abbreviation of online upgrade. Simply put, through regular software updates, the overall performance of electric vehicles can be improved like smartphones. As a result, this function has become a crucial function in smart cars.</p><p>However, according to<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/ATHM\">Car Home</a>Data shows that these three electric vehicles under BBA do not have this function. From the perspective of the industry, there is no difference between electric vehicles lacking this function and ordinary fuel vehicles except in terms of power mode.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a2eaf89da842a32b6f623842341fe49b\" tg-width=\"550\" tg-height=\"285\">Performance comparison between domestic Model Y and BBA's electric vehicle models, screenshot from Autohome</p><p>Because of this, these three electric models under BBA have little voice in the domestic new energy vehicle market.</p><p>According to data from the Passenger Car Association, since its launch, only 1,211 Mercedes-Benz EQC have been sold as of July last year; Since the Audi e-tron went on sale, as of June last year, only 859 units have been sold in total. As a latecomer, the BMW iX3 has sold only 811 units since its release as of November last year.</p><p>In fact, Tesla already has an absolute advantage.</p><p>According to the \"Global New Energy Vehicle Sales Ranking for the First Half of 2020\" released by EV Sales, Tesla ranked first with 179,050 vehicles, while BMW, Audi and Mercedes-Benz all ranked behind Tesla, with BMW 58,883 vehicles are the closest to Tesla, but the two are almost three times as many.</p><p>In the domestic market, Wired Travel compiled statistics on the sales data of new energy cars released by the Passenger Car Association from February to November last year. In these 10 months' data, only BMW's BMW 5 Series PHEV entered the top ten list. Among them, Mercedes-Benz and Audi were not on the list.</p><p>Among them, the gap between BMW and Tesla is relatively large. Even in the sales volume in November last year, the gap between Tesla Model 3 and BMW 5 Series PHEV was as much as 10 times.</p><p>Although the current performance of Model Y is still unknown, what is certain is that as the domestic Model Y strongly enters the domestic new energy SUV market, Tesla's threat to traditional car companies such as BBA will be even stronger. The situation of new energy vehicles is even more precarious.</p><p><b>3</b> <b>Just how ambitious is Tesla?</b></p><p>To clarify the ambitions of Musk and Tesla, we first need to answer a question-why does Tesla implement price cuts one after another?</p><p>Connected Travel once asked this question to many practitioners in the new energy vehicle industry, and the answer was nothing more than two words-cost advantage and scale effect.</p><p>The domestically produced Model Y is the second model released by Tesla in China. In order to make it an \"electric SUV that everyone can afford\", Musk has realized the sharing of parts between Model Y and Model 3. According to Tencent Technology, Mdoel Y is developed based on the Model 3 platform, and the parts sharing between the two has reached 75%.</p><p>As the mass production scale of domestically produced Model Y and Model 3 gradually increases, such parts sharing rates will continue to increase, and the cost of the whole vehicle will be reduced accordingly.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/cc5ce6a751b3c34814f784f83e330e0e\" tg-width=\"550\" tg-height=\"317\">Tesla Model 3 and Model Y, source Tesla official Weibo</p><p>According to<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/601377\">Industrial Securities</a>According to a research report, \"We expect that as the localization rate and output of Model Y parts continue to increase, there is still room for further reduction in the official selling price of Model Y model series, and the sales of Tesla products in the domestic market will continue to increase. situation.\"</p><p>According to data from the Passenger Car Association, in the first 11 months of 2020, Tesla's domestically produced Model 3 sales were 111,600 units, and Tesla accounted for 12% of the entire domestic new energy market with this model.</p><p>After the domestic Model Y goes on sale, Tesla's sales in the domestic market will reach a higher level in the future.</p><p>The fundamental purpose of Tesla's further price cuts is to further grab market share. The market share here is not only for the new energy vehicle industry, but to grab the entire automobile market including fuel vehicles.</p><p>\"Many people think that the domestic new energy vehicle market will be threatened when they look at Tesla's price cuts. But in fact, Tesla's price cuts are good for the new energy vehicle industry, because they can lead new energy vehicles to encroach on the fuel vehicle market.\" Liu Kai, a practitioner in the new energy vehicle industry, told Wired Travel.</p><p>It cannot be denied that this has become a trend.</p><p>According to the forecast of SPDB International, China<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/600617\">National New Energy</a>The automobile penetration rate will reach 20% in 2025, 40% in 2030, and 50% in 2035, that is, the compound growth rate in the next 15 years will reach 11%.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4c38d4579857d3e3347d3f9388c53cbf\" tg-width=\"550\" tg-height=\"311\">Changes in the penetration rate of new energy vehicles in China from 2025 to 2035, data from SPDB International, connected travel mapping</p><p>After gradually encroaching on the traditional fuel vehicle market, the commercialization of new energy vehicle-related industries can expand accordingly, which is exactly the ambition of Musk and Tesla.</p><p>According to media reports, Tesla will have plans to launch an app store similar to<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AAPL\">Apple</a>The App Store platform is another commercial attempt by Tesla since it opened up car owners to purchase software such as autonomous driving. Previously, car owners could purchase assisted driving functions, fully autonomous driving functions, and acceleration in the Tesla App. Performance improvement and other high-end features.</p><p>With the push of car owners to buy software, Musk is also trying to raise the price of software further. Take the AutoPilot function as an example. In November last year, Musk revealed to the media that he would increase the price of AutoPilot by another US $1,000. Before that, the software had been gradually increased from the earliest US $5,000 to US $7,000.</p><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/000750\">Guohai Securities</a>It was previously pointed out that Tesla is expected to build the world's largest automotive software ecosystem. If the Tesla App Store plan can be implemented, it is estimated that Tesla is expected to receive a $3.8 billion share from the software in 2025.</p><p>In addition to selling software, power batteries have also become another good business for Tesla.</p><p>Last September, at Tesla's \"Battery Day\", Musk not only released an imaginative new battery plan, but also stated that \"Tesla does not rule out providing batteries to other companies in the future.\" After the press conference, Tesla was regarded by the industry as the main threat to the power battery industry.</p><p>This means that Tesla will change from a power battery customer to a real contestant in two to three years.</p><p>In fact, in the new energy vehicle industry, there are many car companies that develop batteries while building cars, but the difference is that before Tesla developed its own batteries, it had already achieved a strong position in the power battery industry.</p><p>According to the latest data from SNE Research, a global battery industry research organization, LG Chem ranked first in the global power battery installed capacity ranking in the first quarter of 2020 with a market share of 27.1%, a surge of 117.1% compared with the same period last year. \"The biggest driving force for LG Chem's rising share in the power battery industry is Tesla.\" Wu Yihuan, chief researcher of SNE Research, told the media.</p><p>From the perspective of the industry, when Tesla really starts to develop its own batteries and achieve export sales, it will pose a huge threat to the share of power battery manufacturers such as LG Chem and Panasonic. In order to realize this as soon as possible, Tesla has already started the layout of self-research on power batteries.</p><p>According to Tesla's public information, Tesla currently owns a super battery factory in Nevada, USA. The factory has a production capacity of 20GWh, and its single-line output capacity has increased by 7 times. In December last year, Tesla also announced that it would build a power battery factory in Germany and Indonesia.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/875930895a1e1612648fb7097f4f5961\" tg-width=\"550\" tg-height=\"315\">Tesla Nevada Battery Gigafactory, source Tesla official Weibo</p><p>According to the plan, Tesla will achieve self-production of 100GWh power batteries in 2022, and by 2030, this number will rise to 3TWh (1TWh = 1000GWh).</p><p>\"If this goal is achieved, Tesla can not only solve the energy needs of its electric models, but also pose a big threat to the power battery industry.\" A power battery industry practitioner told Wired Travel.</p><p>In order to realize this ambition as soon as possible, it is certain that Tesla will still wield the big stick of price cuts in the future, even if it has to bear the risks agreed by the industry-after a series of price cuts, it will lead to Tesla's high-end brand positioning. downward.</p><p>But adventurer Musk, in order to realize his ambition, I'm afraid he's not worried about this.</p><p>(At the request of the interviewee, Liu Kai is a pseudonym in this article.)</p>","source":"lsy1575625456531","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Is the \"end\" of fuel vehicles coming? There must be a battle between Tesla and BBA</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nIs the \"end\" of fuel vehicles coming? There must be a battle between Tesla and BBA\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">连线Insight</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-01-06 16:13</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>Text/Zhou Xiongfei</p><p>On New Year's Day,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TSLA\">Tesla</a>It has thrown a blockbuster on the new energy vehicle industry.</p><p>Two domestically produced Model Ys are officially launched-the Model Y Performance high-performance version with a starting price of 369,900 yuan and the Model Y long-range version with a starting price of 339,900 yuan.</p><p>Coinciding with the model launch is the price cut. Among them, the starting price of the Model Y long-range version has been reduced by 148,100 yuan compared with the previous 488,000 yuan; Compared with the previous 535,000 yuan, the Model Y Performance high-performance version has even been reduced by 165,100 yuan.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/29e976f688b8134332bc238c2c20030f\" tg-width=\"550\" tg-height=\"886\">Domestic Model Y is on sale, source: Tesla official Weibo</p><p>The price of the domestic Model Y was sharply reduced immediately after its launch. In the eyes of the outside world, domestic new energy car companies represented by the \"three car-making brothers\" will bear the brunt of the impact.</p><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/XPEV\">XPeng vehicles</a>CEO He XPeng took the lead in making a statement in the circle of friends, \"We are quite confident about the price reduction of friends (Tesla) on New Year's Day, and we didn't even hold a conference call. The price reduction has proved to be just a marketing method, and it is a double-edged sword.\"</p><p>Compared with XPeng's self-confidence,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NIO\">Nio</a>These days, I've been rather uneasy.</p><p>According to Jiemian News, due to the launch of the domestically produced Model Y, Nio suffered a large-scale unsubscription, which paralyzed Nio's official website. Soon, Nio responded: \"The news that the official website system suffered a large-scale refund is untrue, and we have filed a complaint against the relevant platform.\"</p><p>From the perspective of the industry, although the price reduction of the domestic Model Y will have some impact on the domestic new energy market, it will only be a short-term impact. In contrast, traditional fuel vehicle brands such as BMW, Mercedes-Benz and Audi will be more impacted.</p><p>At the same time, from price, battery life, brand power and<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/5RE.SI\">smart</a>In terms of electric models produced by fuel vehicle brands are even more powerless to compete with Tesla's domestically produced Model Y.</p><p>It is conceivable that in the future, Tesla will kill everyone in the traditional fuel vehicle market.</p><p>However, Tesla's ambitions don't stop there.</p><p><b>1</b> <b>Have the \"three car-making brothers\" been hit hard?</b></p><p>\"There were really too many people looking at cars a few days ago, and there was almost no time to rest.\" A Tesla store sales employee told Wired Travel.</p><p>During the New Year's Day holiday that has passed, in addition to many 5A-level scenic spots in China, the Tesla Experience Center also showed a sea of people.</p><p>In addition, Tesla's official website was once unable to be refreshed due to too many orders. \"It's obviously because (orders) have exploded again, and these are all expected,\" a person familiar with Tesla sales told Daily Economic News.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9afd97d783c9662dd4a6008f4db51394\" tg-width=\"550\" tg-height=\"268\">Tesla responded to the overcrowded official website, source Tesla customer support</p><p>In fact, this is not the first time Tesla has cut prices for domestic models.</p><p>Wired Insight once wrote in \"Price cuts\" cut leeks \"and record performance, where did Tesla win?\" The article described in detail Tesla's five price cuts for domestic Model 3 models last year, and after each price cut, there was a crowded scene.</p><p>As for Tesla's first SUV model sold in China, the domestic Model Y, it dropped by 160,000 after the sale, which not only far exceeded market expectations, but also was higher than the total price reduction of 50,000 of the domestic Model 3 five times. range. It is conceivable that such a price reduction is very attractive to consumers.</p><p>In addition to the \"really fragrant\" price, the domestic Model Y itself is also very capable of hitting.</p><p>According to Tesla's official website, the domestic Model Y long-range version has a cruising range of 594 kilometers and can accelerate from 0 to 100 kilometers in 5.1 seconds; The high-performance version has a battery life of 480 kilometers and can accelerate from 0 to 100 kilometers in 3.7 seconds. In terms of intelligence, both models also have OTA upgrades and automatic driving assistance systems.</p><p>Because of this, once the domestically produced Model Y was launched, it was regarded as a \"big killer\", and domestic new energy vehicle companies such as Nio, XPeng, and Ideal were directly affected.</p><p>\"There is no doubt that the domestically produced Model Y will directly compete with Nio's ES6 and EC6.\" Last year, Nio CEO Li Bin said this in an interview with the media. From the perspective of model and price alone, Model Y, ES6 and EC6 are both medium-sized SUVs, and the price of 339,900 for the former is also very close to the price of 358,000 and 368,000 for the low-end versions of the latter.</p><p>In addition, in terms of maximum speed and battery life, Nio's two cars do not have an advantage.</p><p>According to data from Nio's official website, the domestic Model Y has a maximum speed of 217km/h and a battery life of 594km; The top speed of ES6 and EC6 is both 200km/h, and the battery life is 420km and 430km respectively. The battery life of Model Y is much higher than that of the latter two models.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e042934554483dd9cb109835956850c0\" tg-width=\"550\" tg-height=\"124\">Comparison details of Tesla Mdoel Y with Nio ES6 and EC6, connected travel mapping</p><p>Although both Nio models can be equipped with 100kWh battery packs, giving a cruising range of more than 600 kilometers, they need to increase the price by 58,000 yuan, and the price of the whole vehicle exceeds 400,000 yuan, which is 40,000-50,000 higher than the previous price.</p><p>In comparison, the Model Y became a better choice.</p><p>As a result, according to multiple media reports, when the domestically produced Model Y was released, many Nio car owners reported that \"unsubscribing from Nio to change the Model Y\" and \"unsubscribing has crowded Nio's official website\". \"and other news. In this regard, although Nio officials quickly refuted rumors, there are still many discussions in the industry.</p><p>In addition to Nio, Ideal and XPeng, whose flagship products are both SUVs, have also been included in the range of the domestic Model Y. But compared with Nio, Ideal and XPeng have a calmer attitude.</p><p>This is related to the differentiated positioning of XPeng vehicles. Although the XPeng G3 is an SUV, the price of 140,000-190,000 just widens the price gap with the Model Y.</p><p>Ideal ONE, a subsidiary of Ideal, is also an SUV, and its price of 328,000 is very similar to that of the domestic Model Y. However, because the former uses an extended-range power mode, it also forms a certain difference from the Model Y pure electric mode.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c27f2c6d9cac42ead540cd3c42225889\" tg-width=\"550\" tg-height=\"114\">Tesla Model Y (middle), XPeng P7 (right), Ideal ONE, source Tesla/XPeng Motors/<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/LI\">Li Auto</a>Guanwei</p><p>For now, among the \"three car-making brothers\", Nio has been greatly affected, but from the perspective of the industry, such an impact will only be short-term.</p><p>\"Products such as Nio Motors and XPeng Motors have actually distanced themselves from Tesla products, and have formed some unique advantages of their own, which have been recognized by consumers. This can be seen from their sales.\" Cui Dongshu, secretary general of the Passenger Car Association, told Jiemian News.</p><p>At the beginning of this year, Nio, XPeng and Ideal all announced their sales results for last year.</p><p>According to data released by the three companies, in 2020, Nio delivered a total of 43,728 vehicles, a year-on-year increase of 112.6%; XPeng vehicles delivered a total of 27,041 vehicles, a year-on-year increase of 112%. Li Auto's performance ranks in the middle of the two. In 2020, a total of 32,624 Ideal ONE vehicles were delivered.</p><p>\"The loyalty of Nio, XPeng and the ideal circle group is extremely high. I don't think the impact of this area should be very great. The main impact of the price reduction of Tesla Model Y is still on the traditional car market.\" Cui Dongshu told the media.</p><p><b>2</b> <b>Is the end of fuel vehicles coming?</b></p><p>\"Fuel vehicles will disappear.\"</p><p>When Tesla CEO Elon Musk was asked by the media about his views on fuel vehicles in September last year, he used this sentence as an answer. Perhaps he felt that it was not rigorous enough. He added that \"there may be more. A little amount\". In his view, buying a fuel car is like \"riding a horse with a flip phone\".</p><p>With the launch of the domestically produced Model Y, Musk's attitude towards fuel vehicles immediately became the group will within Tesla.</p><p>According to<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/00700\">Tencent</a>Shenzhen Web reported that on January 1 this year, rumors such as \"today is the beginning of the end of fuel vehicles\" spread within Tesla. It's not just Tesla who has the same view. Qin Lihong, co-founder and president of Nio, once said, \"We are happy that any electric vehicle company in the world sells well. The next 10 years will be ten years when electric vehicles will continue to gain the share of fuel vehicles.\"</p><p>Wired Insight once wrote in \"Tesla's domestic Model Y is about to be launched, will Nio encounter the strongest threat?\" The article called the domestic Model Y Tesla's \"sharp tooth\". Looking at it now, compared with Nio, the fuel vehicle industry represented by BMW, Mercedes-Benz and Audi (BBA) is more threatened.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/69aed846fc260deaaf1f5a666afcbd5f\" tg-width=\"550\" tg-height=\"392\">Domestic model Y, picture source Tesla official website</p><p>Looking at the global luxury car market, China is already the largest luxury car market in the world. According to data from the Qianzhan Research Institute, in the regional distribution of global luxury car sales in 2019, China ranked first with a share of 31%. Looking at the domestic luxury car market, the three major BBA brands have always been among the top three.</p><p>According to data from CRRC, in the first half of 2020, Mercedes-Benz ranked first in domestic luxury car sales with cumulative sales of 339,800 units, while BMW and Audi ranked second and third with cumulative sales of 324,500 units and 301,200 units respectively. According to statistics, the three BBA brands occupy a total of 66.7% of the domestic market share.</p><p>Specific to the 300,000-400,000 yuan luxury car market, BMW owns the BMW X3, with an official price of 389,800-479,800 yuan, while the models of Audi and Mercedes-Benz in this price range are the Audi Q5L and Mercedes-Benz GLC, with prices respectively. They are 387,800-498,000 yuan and 397,800-587,800 yuan respectively.</p><p>A closer look reveals that these three models are all medium-sized SUVs, which are the same as the domestic Model Y model, and the latter is also the main high-end electric SUV. Therefore, there must be a battle between Model Y and these three models.</p><p>What cannot be ignored is that Model Y already has huge advantages. Not only does it have the intelligence that these fuel vehicles do not have, but at the same time, the price of 339,000 is much lower than these three models.</p><p>In addition to these, Model Y, as a new energy vehicle, can also be exempted from paying 10% vehicle purchase tax. It is conceivable that in the SUV market with the same price, Model Y, which can enjoy a better high-end and intelligent experience at a lower price, will pose a huge threat to BBA's fuel models.</p><p>According to Chedongxi reports, after the domestic Mdoel Y was released, not only young people went to the Tesla Experience Center to see cars, but also many old car owners who tend to buy BBA and other brands, or who already have models under the BBA brand, also went to see them. Model Y.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/fb44b05fbd5e0992280bd42c39f056dd\" tg-width=\"550\" tg-height=\"733\">After the domestic Model Y was released, a domestic Tesla experience center was overcrowded. Source interviewee</p><p>In order to cope with such risks, traditional fuel vehicle brands such as BMW, Mercedes-Benz and Audi are also deploying in the field of new energy vehicles.</p><p>In November 2019, Mercedes-Benz released its first electric medium-sized SUV, the Mercedes-Benz EQC, in the domestic market. Coincidentally, in the same month, Audi also released its first electric SUV, the Audi e-tron. In November last year, BMW also launched its electric SUV BMW iX3.</p><p>However, these three new energy models are still medium-sized SUVs, but in terms of price, BMW iX3 and Mercedes-Benz EQC are 40,000-50,000 more expensive than fuel vehicles of the same level, and Audi e-tron is even more expensive than Audi Q5L of the same level. More than 200,000 more expensive. This means that these electric models have no price advantage compared with Model Y, which is also a medium-sized electric SUV.</p><p>As the \"life gate\" of electric vehicles, BBA's electric vehicles do not have advantages.</p><p>According to data from various official websites of Connected Travel Statistics, the BMW iX3 has a battery life of 500km, the Audi e-tron has a battery life of 470km, and the Mercedes-Benz EQC has a battery life of only 415km. In comparison, the battery life of Model Y is as high as 594km.</p><p>In addition to price and battery life, intelligence has also become a particularly important factor for consumers when purchasing electric vehicles. At this point, BBA's electric vehicles are also in decline.</p><p>OTA (Over the Air) is the abbreviation of online upgrade. Simply put, through regular software updates, the overall performance of electric vehicles can be improved like smartphones. As a result, this function has become a crucial function in smart cars.</p><p>However, according to<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/ATHM\">Car Home</a>Data shows that these three electric vehicles under BBA do not have this function. From the perspective of the industry, there is no difference between electric vehicles lacking this function and ordinary fuel vehicles except in terms of power mode.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a2eaf89da842a32b6f623842341fe49b\" tg-width=\"550\" tg-height=\"285\">Performance comparison between domestic Model Y and BBA's electric vehicle models, screenshot from Autohome</p><p>Because of this, these three electric models under BBA have little voice in the domestic new energy vehicle market.</p><p>According to data from the Passenger Car Association, since its launch, only 1,211 Mercedes-Benz EQC have been sold as of July last year; Since the Audi e-tron went on sale, as of June last year, only 859 units have been sold in total. As a latecomer, the BMW iX3 has sold only 811 units since its release as of November last year.</p><p>In fact, Tesla already has an absolute advantage.</p><p>According to the \"Global New Energy Vehicle Sales Ranking for the First Half of 2020\" released by EV Sales, Tesla ranked first with 179,050 vehicles, while BMW, Audi and Mercedes-Benz all ranked behind Tesla, with BMW 58,883 vehicles are the closest to Tesla, but the two are almost three times as many.</p><p>In the domestic market, Wired Travel compiled statistics on the sales data of new energy cars released by the Passenger Car Association from February to November last year. In these 10 months' data, only BMW's BMW 5 Series PHEV entered the top ten list. Among them, Mercedes-Benz and Audi were not on the list.</p><p>Among them, the gap between BMW and Tesla is relatively large. Even in the sales volume in November last year, the gap between Tesla Model 3 and BMW 5 Series PHEV was as much as 10 times.</p><p>Although the current performance of Model Y is still unknown, what is certain is that as the domestic Model Y strongly enters the domestic new energy SUV market, Tesla's threat to traditional car companies such as BBA will be even stronger. The situation of new energy vehicles is even more precarious.</p><p><b>3</b> <b>Just how ambitious is Tesla?</b></p><p>To clarify the ambitions of Musk and Tesla, we first need to answer a question-why does Tesla implement price cuts one after another?</p><p>Connected Travel once asked this question to many practitioners in the new energy vehicle industry, and the answer was nothing more than two words-cost advantage and scale effect.</p><p>The domestically produced Model Y is the second model released by Tesla in China. In order to make it an \"electric SUV that everyone can afford\", Musk has realized the sharing of parts between Model Y and Model 3. According to Tencent Technology, Mdoel Y is developed based on the Model 3 platform, and the parts sharing between the two has reached 75%.</p><p>As the mass production scale of domestically produced Model Y and Model 3 gradually increases, such parts sharing rates will continue to increase, and the cost of the whole vehicle will be reduced accordingly.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/cc5ce6a751b3c34814f784f83e330e0e\" tg-width=\"550\" tg-height=\"317\">Tesla Model 3 and Model Y, source Tesla official Weibo</p><p>According to<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/601377\">Industrial Securities</a>According to a research report, \"We expect that as the localization rate and output of Model Y parts continue to increase, there is still room for further reduction in the official selling price of Model Y model series, and the sales of Tesla products in the domestic market will continue to increase. situation.\"</p><p>According to data from the Passenger Car Association, in the first 11 months of 2020, Tesla's domestically produced Model 3 sales were 111,600 units, and Tesla accounted for 12% of the entire domestic new energy market with this model.</p><p>After the domestic Model Y goes on sale, Tesla's sales in the domestic market will reach a higher level in the future.</p><p>The fundamental purpose of Tesla's further price cuts is to further grab market share. The market share here is not only for the new energy vehicle industry, but to grab the entire automobile market including fuel vehicles.</p><p>\"Many people think that the domestic new energy vehicle market will be threatened when they look at Tesla's price cuts. But in fact, Tesla's price cuts are good for the new energy vehicle industry, because they can lead new energy vehicles to encroach on the fuel vehicle market.\" Liu Kai, a practitioner in the new energy vehicle industry, told Wired Travel.</p><p>It cannot be denied that this has become a trend.</p><p>According to the forecast of SPDB International, China<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/600617\">National New Energy</a>The automobile penetration rate will reach 20% in 2025, 40% in 2030, and 50% in 2035, that is, the compound growth rate in the next 15 years will reach 11%.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4c38d4579857d3e3347d3f9388c53cbf\" tg-width=\"550\" tg-height=\"311\">Changes in the penetration rate of new energy vehicles in China from 2025 to 2035, data from SPDB International, connected travel mapping</p><p>After gradually encroaching on the traditional fuel vehicle market, the commercialization of new energy vehicle-related industries can expand accordingly, which is exactly the ambition of Musk and Tesla.</p><p>According to media reports, Tesla will have plans to launch an app store similar to<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AAPL\">Apple</a>The App Store platform is another commercial attempt by Tesla since it opened up car owners to purchase software such as autonomous driving. Previously, car owners could purchase assisted driving functions, fully autonomous driving functions, and acceleration in the Tesla App. Performance improvement and other high-end features.</p><p>With the push of car owners to buy software, Musk is also trying to raise the price of software further. Take the AutoPilot function as an example. In November last year, Musk revealed to the media that he would increase the price of AutoPilot by another US $1,000. Before that, the software had been gradually increased from the earliest US $5,000 to US $7,000.</p><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/000750\">Guohai Securities</a>It was previously pointed out that Tesla is expected to build the world's largest automotive software ecosystem. If the Tesla App Store plan can be implemented, it is estimated that Tesla is expected to receive a $3.8 billion share from the software in 2025.</p><p>In addition to selling software, power batteries have also become another good business for Tesla.</p><p>Last September, at Tesla's \"Battery Day\", Musk not only released an imaginative new battery plan, but also stated that \"Tesla does not rule out providing batteries to other companies in the future.\" After the press conference, Tesla was regarded by the industry as the main threat to the power battery industry.</p><p>This means that Tesla will change from a power battery customer to a real contestant in two to three years.</p><p>In fact, in the new energy vehicle industry, there are many car companies that develop batteries while building cars, but the difference is that before Tesla developed its own batteries, it had already achieved a strong position in the power battery industry.</p><p>According to the latest data from SNE Research, a global battery industry research organization, LG Chem ranked first in the global power battery installed capacity ranking in the first quarter of 2020 with a market share of 27.1%, a surge of 117.1% compared with the same period last year. \"The biggest driving force for LG Chem's rising share in the power battery industry is Tesla.\" Wu Yihuan, chief researcher of SNE Research, told the media.</p><p>From the perspective of the industry, when Tesla really starts to develop its own batteries and achieve export sales, it will pose a huge threat to the share of power battery manufacturers such as LG Chem and Panasonic. In order to realize this as soon as possible, Tesla has already started the layout of self-research on power batteries.</p><p>According to Tesla's public information, Tesla currently owns a super battery factory in Nevada, USA. The factory has a production capacity of 20GWh, and its single-line output capacity has increased by 7 times. In December last year, Tesla also announced that it would build a power battery factory in Germany and Indonesia.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/875930895a1e1612648fb7097f4f5961\" tg-width=\"550\" tg-height=\"315\">Tesla Nevada Battery Gigafactory, source Tesla official Weibo</p><p>According to the plan, Tesla will achieve self-production of 100GWh power batteries in 2022, and by 2030, this number will rise to 3TWh (1TWh = 1000GWh).</p><p>\"If this goal is achieved, Tesla can not only solve the energy needs of its electric models, but also pose a big threat to the power battery industry.\" A power battery industry practitioner told Wired Travel.</p><p>In order to realize this ambition as soon as possible, it is certain that Tesla will still wield the big stick of price cuts in the future, even if it has to bear the risks agreed by the industry-after a series of price cuts, it will lead to Tesla's high-end brand positioning. downward.</p><p>But adventurer Musk, in order to realize his ambition, I'm afraid he's not worried about this.</p><p>(At the request of the interviewee, Liu Kai is a pseudonym in this article.)</p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> source：<a href=\"http://finance.sina.com.cn/tech/csj/2021-01-06/doc-iiznezxt0880908.shtml\">连线Insight</a></p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9adb04caf54ed34badf9270524050e50","relate_stocks":{"TSLA":"特斯拉"},"source_url":"http://finance.sina.com.cn/tech/csj/2021-01-06/doc-iiznezxt0880908.shtml","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1134300311","content_text":"文/周雄飞\n元旦当天，特斯拉就给新能源汽车行业扔了一颗重磅炸弹。\n两款国产Model Y正式上市——分别为起售价36.99万元的Model Y Performance高性能版和起售价33.99万元的Model Y长续航版。\n与车型发布同时进行的是降价。其中，Model Y 长续航版的起售价相比于此前的48.8万元下调了14.81万元；Model Y Performance高性能版相比于此前的53.5万元甚至下调了16.51万元。\n国产Model Y发售，图源特斯拉官微\n国产Model Y上市随即大幅降价，在外界看来，“造车三兄弟”为代表的国内新能源车企们首当其冲将受到冲击。\n小鹏汽车CEO何小鹏率先在朋友圈中做出表态，“友商（特斯拉）在元旦的降价，我们挺有信心，连电话会都没有开，降价已证明仅仅是营销方式而已，而且是把双刃剑。”\n相比于小鹏的自信，蔚来这几天却过得比较忐忑。\n据界面新闻报道，由于国产Model Y的上市，蔚来遭遇大规模的退订，导致蔚来官网瘫痪。很快，蔚来方面做出回应表示：“官网系统遭遇大规模退单的消息不实，我们已经对相关平台发起投诉。”\n在业内看来，国产Model Y的降价上市虽然会对国内新能源市场带来一些冲击，但也只是短期的影响。而相比之下，宝马、奔驰和奥迪等传统燃油车品牌将会受到更大的冲击。\n同时，从价格、续航、品牌力和智能化方面，燃油车品牌生产的电动车型，在特斯拉国产Model Y面前，更是无力对抗。\n可想而知，在之后的时间里，特斯拉会在传统燃油车市场中大杀四方。\n然而，特斯拉的野心，还不止如此。\n1 “造车三兄弟”受的打击大吗？\n“前几天看车的人真的太多了，几乎没时间休息。”特斯拉一位门店销售员工对连线出行表示。\n在已经过去的元旦假期，国内除了众多5A级景区外，特斯拉体验中心也呈现出人山人海的景象。\n此外，特斯拉的官网也因订单过多，一度出现无法刷新的情况。“很明显是因为（订单）又爆了，这些都在预期之中。”一位熟悉特斯拉销售的人士对每日经济新闻表示。\n特斯拉回应官网被挤爆，图源特斯拉客户支持\n其实，这已不是特斯拉对国产车型的首次降价。\n连线Insight曾在《降价“割韭菜”、业绩创记录，特斯拉到底赢在哪？》一文中详细描述了特斯拉去年对国产Model 3车型的5次降价，并在每次降价后都呈现出门庭若市的场景。\n而对于特斯拉国内发售的首款SUV车型——国产Model Y而言，在发售后一下就降16万，不仅远超市场预期，同时也高于国产Model 3五次的合计5万的降价幅度。可想而知，这样的降价幅度对消费者的吸引力是巨大的。\n除了“真香”的价格，国产Model Y本身也很能打。\n据特斯拉官网显示，国产Model Y长续航版续航里程594公里，零百加速5.1秒；高性能版本续航480公里，零百加速3.7秒。在智能化方面，两种车型同样具备OTA升级和自动驾驶辅助系统。\n正因为这样，国产Model Y一经上市，就被看作是“大杀器”，直接受到影响的就是蔚来、小鹏、理想等国产新能源车企。\n“毫无疑问，国产Model Y将与蔚来旗下的ES6和EC6直接竞争。”去年，蔚来CEO李斌在接受媒体采访时这样表示。单从车型和价格上来看，Model Y与ES6、EC6同属于中型SUV，并且前者33.99万的售价与后者两款车的35.8万和36.8万的低配版价格也靠得很近。\n此外，在最高车速和续航方面，蔚来两款车并不占优势。\n据蔚来官网数据，国产Model Y的最高车速为217km/h，续航为594km；而ES6和EC6的最高车速同为200km/h，续航各为420km和430km。Model Y的续航远高于后者两款车型。\n特斯拉Mdoel Y与蔚来ES6、EC6对比详情， 连线出行制图\n虽然，蔚来这两款车型都可装配100kWh电池包，使续航里程超过600公里，但需要加价5.8万元，整车价格超过40万，足足比之前的售价高了4-5万。\n相比之下，Model Y成为了更好的选择。\n由此，据多家媒体报道，在国产Model Y发售之时，就有很多蔚来汽车车主群中就传出“退订蔚来改订Model Y”、“退订都把蔚来官网给挤爆了”等消息。对此，蔚来官方虽很快进行辟谣，但业内还是议论纷纷。\n除了蔚来，主打产品同为SUV的理想和小鹏，也被纳入了国产Model Y的打击射程之内。但相比于蔚来，理想和小鹏的态度更为淡定一些。\n这与小鹏汽车的差异化定位有关，小鹏G3虽属于SUV，而14-19万的定价，恰好与Model Y拉开了价格差距。\n而理想旗下的理想ONE同属于SUV，32.8万的定价与国产Model Y售价无比相近，但由于前者使用的是增程式动力模式，和Model Y纯电动的模式也形成了一定的差异化。\n特斯拉Model Y（中）与小鹏P7（右）、理想ONE， 图源特斯拉/小鹏汽车/理想汽车官微\n就目前而言，在“造车三兄弟”中，蔚来受到的影响较大，但在业内看来，这样的影响只会是短期的。\n“像蔚来汽车、小鹏汽车等产品，实际上与特斯拉产品拉开距离，并且已形成自己独特的一些优势，从而得到了消费者的认可，这点从他们的销量上就可以看到。”乘联会秘书长崔东树对界面新闻表示。\n今年年初，蔚来、小鹏和理想都公布了去年一年的销量成绩。\n据三家公布数据显示，2020年全年，蔚来累计交付43728辆，同比增长112.6%；小鹏汽车累计交付27041辆，同比增长112%。而理想汽车的成绩居于两者中间，2020年全年，理想ONE总计交付32624辆。\n“蔚来、小鹏和理想的圈层群体的忠诚度极高，我觉得这块的影响应该并不是很大。特斯拉Model Y的降价主要的影响还是对传统车市场。”崔东树这样对媒体表示。\n2 燃油车的末日要来了？\n“燃油车会消失。”\n特斯拉CEO埃隆•马斯克在去年9月，被媒体问到对于燃油车的看法时，他曾以这句话作为回答，或许是觉得不够严谨，他又补充道“可能还会有一点点量”。在他看来，购买燃油汽车就像是“骑着马用翻盖手机”。\n随着国产Model Y的上市，马斯克对于燃油车的态度，随即成为了特斯拉内部的群体意志。\n据腾讯深网报道，今年1月1日，特斯拉内部就传出了“今天是燃油车末日的开启”等传言。有同样看法的不只是特斯拉，蔚来联合创始人、总裁秦力洪曾表示，“天下任何一家电动车企业卖得好，我们都高兴。接下来的10年是电动车不断取得燃油车份额的十年。”\n连线Insight曾在《特斯拉国产Model Y即将上市，蔚来将遭遇最强威胁？》一文中将国产Model Y称作是特斯拉的“利齿”。如今来看，相比蔚来，更受威胁的，是宝马、奔驰和奥迪（BBA）等为代表的燃油车行业。\n国产model Y，图源特斯拉官网\n放眼全球豪华车市场，中国已是全球第一大豪华车市场。据前瞻研究院数据显示，2019年全球豪华车销量区域分布中，中国以31%的份额占据第一。再来看国内豪华车市场，BBA三大品牌一直以来稳居前三。\n据中车网数据，2020年上半年，奔驰以33.98万辆的累计销量占据国内豪华车销量榜首位，宝马和奥迪分别以累计32.45万辆和30.12万台分居二、三位。另据统计，BBA三个品牌共占据国内66.7%的市场份额。\n具体到30-40万元豪华车市场来看，宝马旗下有宝马X3，官方售价为38.98-47.98万元，而奥迪和奔驰在这一价格区间的车型分别是奥迪Q5L和奔驰GLC，售价分别为38.78-49.8万元与39.78-58.78万元。\n细看可以发现，这三个车型均属于中型SUV，与国产Model Y车型相同，而后者也是主打高端电动SUV，因此，Model Y与这三款车型之间必有一战。\n不可忽视的是，Model Y已有巨大优势，不仅具备这几款燃油车没有的智能化，同时，33.9万的售价也远低于这三款车型。\n除了这些，Model Y作为新能源汽车，还能免缴纳10%的车辆购置税。可想而知，在同等价格的SUV市场中，可以用更低的价格享受更好的高端化与智能化体验的Model Y，将对BBA旗下的燃油车型造成巨大的威胁。\n据车东西报道，在国产Mdoel Y 发售后，去特斯拉体验中心看车的不仅只有年轻人，同时还有很多倾向于买BBA等品牌，或者已有BBA品牌旗下车型的老车主也来看Model Y。\n国产Model Y发售后国内某特斯拉体验中心人满为患， 图源受访者\n为了应对这样的风险，宝马、奔驰和奥迪等传统燃油车品牌，也在新能源汽车领域布局。\n奔驰在2019年11月，在国内市场上发布了首款电动中型SUV奔驰EQC，无独有偶，在同月奥迪也发布了旗下首款电动SUV奥迪e-tron。而到了去年11月，宝马也推出旗下的电动SUV宝马iX3。\n但是，这三款新能源车型依然是中型SUV，但从售价上来看，宝马iX3和奔驰EQC均比同级别的燃油车车型贵4-5万，奥迪e-tron甚至比同级别的奥迪Q5L贵20多万。这就意味着，这几款电动车型与同属于中型电动SUV的Model Y相比在价格上没有任何优势。\n作为电动车“命门”的续航方面，BBA旗下的电动车也不具有优势。\n据连线出行统计各家官网数据可见，宝马iX3的续航为500km，奥迪e-tron则为470km，而奔驰EQC的续航甚至仅为415km。相较之下，Model Y的续航则高达594km。\n除了价格和续航之外，智能化也已成为了消费者选购电动车尤为看重的因素，而这一点上，BBA旗下的电动车同样处于颓势。\nOTA(Over the Air)是在线升级的简称，简单说，就是通过定期的软件更新，让电动汽车像智能手机一样，使整体性能得到提升。由此，这一功能已成为智能汽车化方面至关重要的功能。\n然而，据汽车之家数据显示，BBA旗下的这三款电动车并不具备这一功能。在业内看来，缺少这一功能的电动车与普通燃油车，除了在动力方式之外，并没有任何区别。\n国产Model Y与BBA旗下电动车车型性能对比， 截图自汽车之家\n正因如此，BBA旗下的这三款电动车型在国内新能源汽车市场中没有什么声量。\n据乘联会数据显示，奔驰EQC自上市以来，截至去年7月仅卖出了1211辆；奥迪e-tron自发售以来，截至去年6月，总销量仅为859辆。而作为后来者的宝马iX3，自发售截至去年11月，销量也仅为811辆。\n其实，特斯拉已具备绝对优势。\n据EV Sales 发布的《2020年上半年全球新能源汽车销量排行榜》显示，特斯拉以179050辆排在第一位，而宝马、奥迪和奔驰都排在特斯拉身后，其中宝马以58883辆与特斯拉最为相近，但两者几乎有3倍之多。\n而在国内市场，连线出行统计了自去年2月到11月的乘联会发布的新能源轿车销量数据，在这10个月的数据中仅有宝马旗下宝马5系PHEV进入前十榜单中，而奔驰和奥迪均未入榜。\n其中，宝马这款车型与特斯拉的差距偏大，甚至在去年11月销量中，特斯拉Model 3与宝马5系PHEV的差距有10倍之多。\n虽然目前Model Y的表现如何尚不可知，但可以确定的是，随着国产Model Y强势进入国内新能源SUV市场中，特斯拉对BBA等传统车企的威胁会更加强势，后者旗下的新能源车型的处境，更是岌岌可危。\n3 特斯拉的野心到底有多大？\n要说清马斯克和特斯拉的野心，首先需要解答一个问题——特斯拉为什么要接二连三地实施降价？\n连线出行曾将这个问题向多位新能源汽车行业的从业者提问，得到的答案无外乎是两个词——成本优势和规模效应。\n国产Model Y 作为特斯拉在国内发布的第二款车型，马斯克为了让其成为“大家都买得起的电动SUV”，Model Y 与Model 3已实现了零部件上的共享。据腾讯科技报道，Mdoel Y是基于Model 3平台研发，两者的零部件共享达到了75%。\n而随着国产Model Y和Model 3的量产规模逐渐增加，这样的零件共享率将继续提升，整车成本随之得到降低。\n特斯拉Model 3和Model Y，图源特斯拉官微\n据兴业证券的一份研报显示，\"我们预计伴随Model Y零部件国产化率与产量持续提升，Model Y车型序列的官方售价仍有进一步的降低空间，持续提升特斯拉产品在国内市场的销量情况。\"\n据乘联会数据，2020年前11月，特斯拉国产Model 3的销量为11.16万辆，特斯拉凭借这一车型就占据了整个国内新能源市场的12%。\n而国产Model Y开售后，未来特斯拉在国内市场的销量将更上一层楼。\n特斯拉的进一步降价，根本目的就是为了进一步抢夺市场份额，这里的市场份额并不只是新能源汽车行业的，而是去抢夺包括燃油车在内的整个汽车市场。\n“很多人看特斯拉降价，就觉得是国内新能源汽车市场将受到威胁。但事实上，特斯拉降价对新能源汽车行业是利好的，因为可以带领新能源汽车去蚕食燃油车市场。”新能源汽车行业从业者刘凯对连线出行表示。\n不能否认的是，这已成为一个趋势。\n据浦银国际预测，中国新能源汽车渗透率将在2025 年达到20%，2030 年达到40%，2035 年达到50%，即未来15年的复合增长率将达到11%。\n2025-2035年中国新能源汽车渗透率变化图， 数据来源于浦银国际，连线出行制图\n在一步步蚕食传统燃油车市场后，新能源汽车相关行业的商业化就能随之扩大，这也正是马斯克和特斯拉的野心。\n据媒体报道，特斯拉将有计划推出应用商店，类似于苹果应用商店（App Store）的平台，这也是特斯拉自开放车主可以购买自动驾驶等软件后又一商业尝试，此前车主可以在特斯拉 App 中购买辅助驾驶功能、完全自动驾驶功能、加速性能提升以及其他高端功能。\n随着车主购买软件的推动，马斯克也试图将软件的价格进一步提高。以AutoPilot功能为例，曾在去年11月，马斯克向媒体透露道，会将AutoPilot的价格再提高1000美元，而在这之前，这套软件已从最早的5000美元逐步提高到7000美元。\n国海证券此前也指出，特斯拉有望构建全球最大的汽车软件生态。如果特斯拉应用商店这一计划可以落地，预计2025年特斯拉有望从软件中获得38亿美元分成。\n除了卖软件之外，动力电池也成为了特斯拉的另一门好生意。\n去年9月，在特斯拉“电池日”上，马斯克不仅发布了具有想象力的新电池计划，同时也表示“特斯拉未来并不排除为其他公司提供电池”。发布会结束后，特斯拉就被业内视为对动力电池行业的主要威胁。\n这就意味着，特斯拉在两到三年后，将从动力电池的客户变为真正的参赛选手。\n其实，在新能源汽车行业中，一边造车一边研发电池的车企大有人在，只不过不同的是，特斯拉在自研电池之前，已在动力电池行业中做到了“呼风唤雨”的强势地位。\n据全球电池行业调研机构SNE Research的最新数据，2020年第一季度全球动力电池装机量排名中，LG化学以27.1%的市占率跃居首位，相较去年同期激增117.1%。“LG化学在动力电池行业中的占有率上升，最大的推动力就是特斯拉。”SNE Research首席研究员吴益焕对媒体表示。\n在业内看来，当特斯拉真正开始自研电池并实现外销后，其对于LG化学、松下等动力电池厂商的占有率是巨大的威胁。而为了早日实现这点，特斯拉早已开始了在动力电池自研方面的布局。\n据特斯拉公开消息可知，目前特斯拉已拥有美国内华达州的一座超级电池工厂，该工厂已具备20GWh的产能，单线产出能力已提升7倍。去年12月，特斯拉还宣布将在德国和印尼各建立一座动力电池工厂。\n特斯拉内华达州电池超级工厂，图源特斯拉官微\n按照计划，特斯拉将在2022年实现100GWh动力电池的自产，而到了2030年，这一数字将升至3TWh（1TWh=1000GWh）。\n“假若这一目标得以实现，特斯拉不仅可以解决旗下电动车型的能源需求，同时对于动力电池行业也是不小的威胁。”一位动力电池行业从业者对连线出行表示。\n为了尽快实现这一野心，可以确定的是，特斯拉在之后依然会挥舞着降价的大棒，即使要承担起业内一致认为的风险——一系列的降价之后，会导致特斯拉高端品牌定位的下行。\n但冒险家马斯克，为了实现自己的野心，恐怕并不担心这个。\n（应受访者要求，文中刘凯为化名。）","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"TSLA":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":608,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0}],"hots":[{"id":622116264,"gmtCreate":1675287949259,"gmtModify":1676538989678,"author":{"id":"3573014764681345","authorId":"3573014764681345","name":"T3478469778","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/89c999155efb5940688f768da3078bd2","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3573014764681345","idStr":"3573014764681345"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a 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16:13","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"Is the \"end\" of fuel vehicles coming? There must be a battle between Tesla and BBA","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1134300311","media":"连线Insight","summary":"特斯拉的野心到底有多大？","content":"<p>Text/Zhou Xiongfei</p><p>On New Year's Day,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TSLA\">Tesla</a>It has thrown a blockbuster on the new energy vehicle industry.</p><p>Two domestically produced Model Ys are officially launched-the Model Y Performance high-performance version with a starting price of 369,900 yuan and the Model Y long-range version with a starting price of 339,900 yuan.</p><p>Coinciding with the model launch is the price cut. Among them, the starting price of the Model Y long-range version has been reduced by 148,100 yuan compared with the previous 488,000 yuan; Compared with the previous 535,000 yuan, the Model Y Performance high-performance version has even been reduced by 165,100 yuan.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/29e976f688b8134332bc238c2c20030f\" tg-width=\"550\" tg-height=\"886\">Domestic Model Y is on sale, source: Tesla official Weibo</p><p>The price of the domestic Model Y was sharply reduced immediately after its launch. In the eyes of the outside world, domestic new energy car companies represented by the \"three car-making brothers\" will bear the brunt of the impact.</p><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/XPEV\">XPeng vehicles</a>CEO He XPeng took the lead in making a statement in the circle of friends, \"We are quite confident about the price reduction of friends (Tesla) on New Year's Day, and we didn't even hold a conference call. The price reduction has proved to be just a marketing method, and it is a double-edged sword.\"</p><p>Compared with XPeng's self-confidence,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NIO\">Nio</a>These days, I've been rather uneasy.</p><p>According to Jiemian News, due to the launch of the domestically produced Model Y, Nio suffered a large-scale unsubscription, which paralyzed Nio's official website. Soon, Nio responded: \"The news that the official website system suffered a large-scale refund is untrue, and we have filed a complaint against the relevant platform.\"</p><p>From the perspective of the industry, although the price reduction of the domestic Model Y will have some impact on the domestic new energy market, it will only be a short-term impact. In contrast, traditional fuel vehicle brands such as BMW, Mercedes-Benz and Audi will be more impacted.</p><p>At the same time, from price, battery life, brand power and<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/5RE.SI\">smart</a>In terms of electric models produced by fuel vehicle brands are even more powerless to compete with Tesla's domestically produced Model Y.</p><p>It is conceivable that in the future, Tesla will kill everyone in the traditional fuel vehicle market.</p><p>However, Tesla's ambitions don't stop there.</p><p><b>1</b> <b>Have the \"three car-making brothers\" been hit hard?</b></p><p>\"There were really too many people looking at cars a few days ago, and there was almost no time to rest.\" A Tesla store sales employee told Wired Travel.</p><p>During the New Year's Day holiday that has passed, in addition to many 5A-level scenic spots in China, the Tesla Experience Center also showed a sea of people.</p><p>In addition, Tesla's official website was once unable to be refreshed due to too many orders. \"It's obviously because (orders) have exploded again, and these are all expected,\" a person familiar with Tesla sales told Daily Economic News.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9afd97d783c9662dd4a6008f4db51394\" tg-width=\"550\" tg-height=\"268\">Tesla responded to the overcrowded official website, source Tesla customer support</p><p>In fact, this is not the first time Tesla has cut prices for domestic models.</p><p>Wired Insight once wrote in \"Price cuts\" cut leeks \"and record performance, where did Tesla win?\" The article described in detail Tesla's five price cuts for domestic Model 3 models last year, and after each price cut, there was a crowded scene.</p><p>As for Tesla's first SUV model sold in China, the domestic Model Y, it dropped by 160,000 after the sale, which not only far exceeded market expectations, but also was higher than the total price reduction of 50,000 of the domestic Model 3 five times. range. It is conceivable that such a price reduction is very attractive to consumers.</p><p>In addition to the \"really fragrant\" price, the domestic Model Y itself is also very capable of hitting.</p><p>According to Tesla's official website, the domestic Model Y long-range version has a cruising range of 594 kilometers and can accelerate from 0 to 100 kilometers in 5.1 seconds; The high-performance version has a battery life of 480 kilometers and can accelerate from 0 to 100 kilometers in 3.7 seconds. In terms of intelligence, both models also have OTA upgrades and automatic driving assistance systems.</p><p>Because of this, once the domestically produced Model Y was launched, it was regarded as a \"big killer\", and domestic new energy vehicle companies such as Nio, XPeng, and Ideal were directly affected.</p><p>\"There is no doubt that the domestically produced Model Y will directly compete with Nio's ES6 and EC6.\" Last year, Nio CEO Li Bin said this in an interview with the media. From the perspective of model and price alone, Model Y, ES6 and EC6 are both medium-sized SUVs, and the price of 339,900 for the former is also very close to the price of 358,000 and 368,000 for the low-end versions of the latter.</p><p>In addition, in terms of maximum speed and battery life, Nio's two cars do not have an advantage.</p><p>According to data from Nio's official website, the domestic Model Y has a maximum speed of 217km/h and a battery life of 594km; The top speed of ES6 and EC6 is both 200km/h, and the battery life is 420km and 430km respectively. The battery life of Model Y is much higher than that of the latter two models.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e042934554483dd9cb109835956850c0\" tg-width=\"550\" tg-height=\"124\">Comparison details of Tesla Mdoel Y with Nio ES6 and EC6, connected travel mapping</p><p>Although both Nio models can be equipped with 100kWh battery packs, giving a cruising range of more than 600 kilometers, they need to increase the price by 58,000 yuan, and the price of the whole vehicle exceeds 400,000 yuan, which is 40,000-50,000 higher than the previous price.</p><p>In comparison, the Model Y became a better choice.</p><p>As a result, according to multiple media reports, when the domestically produced Model Y was released, many Nio car owners reported that \"unsubscribing from Nio to change the Model Y\" and \"unsubscribing has crowded Nio's official website\". \"and other news. In this regard, although Nio officials quickly refuted rumors, there are still many discussions in the industry.</p><p>In addition to Nio, Ideal and XPeng, whose flagship products are both SUVs, have also been included in the range of the domestic Model Y. But compared with Nio, Ideal and XPeng have a calmer attitude.</p><p>This is related to the differentiated positioning of XPeng vehicles. Although the XPeng G3 is an SUV, the price of 140,000-190,000 just widens the price gap with the Model Y.</p><p>Ideal ONE, a subsidiary of Ideal, is also an SUV, and its price of 328,000 is very similar to that of the domestic Model Y. However, because the former uses an extended-range power mode, it also forms a certain difference from the Model Y pure electric mode.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c27f2c6d9cac42ead540cd3c42225889\" tg-width=\"550\" tg-height=\"114\">Tesla Model Y (middle), XPeng P7 (right), Ideal ONE, source Tesla/XPeng Motors/<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/LI\">Li Auto</a>Guanwei</p><p>For now, among the \"three car-making brothers\", Nio has been greatly affected, but from the perspective of the industry, such an impact will only be short-term.</p><p>\"Products such as Nio Motors and XPeng Motors have actually distanced themselves from Tesla products, and have formed some unique advantages of their own, which have been recognized by consumers. This can be seen from their sales.\" Cui Dongshu, secretary general of the Passenger Car Association, told Jiemian News.</p><p>At the beginning of this year, Nio, XPeng and Ideal all announced their sales results for last year.</p><p>According to data released by the three companies, in 2020, Nio delivered a total of 43,728 vehicles, a year-on-year increase of 112.6%; XPeng vehicles delivered a total of 27,041 vehicles, a year-on-year increase of 112%. Li Auto's performance ranks in the middle of the two. In 2020, a total of 32,624 Ideal ONE vehicles were delivered.</p><p>\"The loyalty of Nio, XPeng and the ideal circle group is extremely high. I don't think the impact of this area should be very great. The main impact of the price reduction of Tesla Model Y is still on the traditional car market.\" Cui Dongshu told the media.</p><p><b>2</b> <b>Is the end of fuel vehicles coming?</b></p><p>\"Fuel vehicles will disappear.\"</p><p>When Tesla CEO Elon Musk was asked by the media about his views on fuel vehicles in September last year, he used this sentence as an answer. Perhaps he felt that it was not rigorous enough. He added that \"there may be more. A little amount\". In his view, buying a fuel car is like \"riding a horse with a flip phone\".</p><p>With the launch of the domestically produced Model Y, Musk's attitude towards fuel vehicles immediately became the group will within Tesla.</p><p>According to<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/00700\">Tencent</a>Shenzhen Web reported that on January 1 this year, rumors such as \"today is the beginning of the end of fuel vehicles\" spread within Tesla. It's not just Tesla who has the same view. Qin Lihong, co-founder and president of Nio, once said, \"We are happy that any electric vehicle company in the world sells well. The next 10 years will be ten years when electric vehicles will continue to gain the share of fuel vehicles.\"</p><p>Wired Insight once wrote in \"Tesla's domestic Model Y is about to be launched, will Nio encounter the strongest threat?\" The article called the domestic Model Y Tesla's \"sharp tooth\". Looking at it now, compared with Nio, the fuel vehicle industry represented by BMW, Mercedes-Benz and Audi (BBA) is more threatened.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/69aed846fc260deaaf1f5a666afcbd5f\" tg-width=\"550\" tg-height=\"392\">Domestic model Y, picture source Tesla official website</p><p>Looking at the global luxury car market, China is already the largest luxury car market in the world. According to data from the Qianzhan Research Institute, in the regional distribution of global luxury car sales in 2019, China ranked first with a share of 31%. Looking at the domestic luxury car market, the three major BBA brands have always been among the top three.</p><p>According to data from CRRC, in the first half of 2020, Mercedes-Benz ranked first in domestic luxury car sales with cumulative sales of 339,800 units, while BMW and Audi ranked second and third with cumulative sales of 324,500 units and 301,200 units respectively. According to statistics, the three BBA brands occupy a total of 66.7% of the domestic market share.</p><p>Specific to the 300,000-400,000 yuan luxury car market, BMW owns the BMW X3, with an official price of 389,800-479,800 yuan, while the models of Audi and Mercedes-Benz in this price range are the Audi Q5L and Mercedes-Benz GLC, with prices respectively. They are 387,800-498,000 yuan and 397,800-587,800 yuan respectively.</p><p>A closer look reveals that these three models are all medium-sized SUVs, which are the same as the domestic Model Y model, and the latter is also the main high-end electric SUV. Therefore, there must be a battle between Model Y and these three models.</p><p>What cannot be ignored is that Model Y already has huge advantages. Not only does it have the intelligence that these fuel vehicles do not have, but at the same time, the price of 339,000 is much lower than these three models.</p><p>In addition to these, Model Y, as a new energy vehicle, can also be exempted from paying 10% vehicle purchase tax. It is conceivable that in the SUV market with the same price, Model Y, which can enjoy a better high-end and intelligent experience at a lower price, will pose a huge threat to BBA's fuel models.</p><p>According to Chedongxi reports, after the domestic Mdoel Y was released, not only young people went to the Tesla Experience Center to see cars, but also many old car owners who tend to buy BBA and other brands, or who already have models under the BBA brand, also went to see them. Model Y.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/fb44b05fbd5e0992280bd42c39f056dd\" tg-width=\"550\" tg-height=\"733\">After the domestic Model Y was released, a domestic Tesla experience center was overcrowded. Source interviewee</p><p>In order to cope with such risks, traditional fuel vehicle brands such as BMW, Mercedes-Benz and Audi are also deploying in the field of new energy vehicles.</p><p>In November 2019, Mercedes-Benz released its first electric medium-sized SUV, the Mercedes-Benz EQC, in the domestic market. Coincidentally, in the same month, Audi also released its first electric SUV, the Audi e-tron. In November last year, BMW also launched its electric SUV BMW iX3.</p><p>However, these three new energy models are still medium-sized SUVs, but in terms of price, BMW iX3 and Mercedes-Benz EQC are 40,000-50,000 more expensive than fuel vehicles of the same level, and Audi e-tron is even more expensive than Audi Q5L of the same level. More than 200,000 more expensive. This means that these electric models have no price advantage compared with Model Y, which is also a medium-sized electric SUV.</p><p>As the \"life gate\" of electric vehicles, BBA's electric vehicles do not have advantages.</p><p>According to data from various official websites of Connected Travel Statistics, the BMW iX3 has a battery life of 500km, the Audi e-tron has a battery life of 470km, and the Mercedes-Benz EQC has a battery life of only 415km. In comparison, the battery life of Model Y is as high as 594km.</p><p>In addition to price and battery life, intelligence has also become a particularly important factor for consumers when purchasing electric vehicles. At this point, BBA's electric vehicles are also in decline.</p><p>OTA (Over the Air) is the abbreviation of online upgrade. Simply put, through regular software updates, the overall performance of electric vehicles can be improved like smartphones. As a result, this function has become a crucial function in smart cars.</p><p>However, according to<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/ATHM\">Car Home</a>Data shows that these three electric vehicles under BBA do not have this function. From the perspective of the industry, there is no difference between electric vehicles lacking this function and ordinary fuel vehicles except in terms of power mode.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a2eaf89da842a32b6f623842341fe49b\" tg-width=\"550\" tg-height=\"285\">Performance comparison between domestic Model Y and BBA's electric vehicle models, screenshot from Autohome</p><p>Because of this, these three electric models under BBA have little voice in the domestic new energy vehicle market.</p><p>According to data from the Passenger Car Association, since its launch, only 1,211 Mercedes-Benz EQC have been sold as of July last year; Since the Audi e-tron went on sale, as of June last year, only 859 units have been sold in total. As a latecomer, the BMW iX3 has sold only 811 units since its release as of November last year.</p><p>In fact, Tesla already has an absolute advantage.</p><p>According to the \"Global New Energy Vehicle Sales Ranking for the First Half of 2020\" released by EV Sales, Tesla ranked first with 179,050 vehicles, while BMW, Audi and Mercedes-Benz all ranked behind Tesla, with BMW 58,883 vehicles are the closest to Tesla, but the two are almost three times as many.</p><p>In the domestic market, Wired Travel compiled statistics on the sales data of new energy cars released by the Passenger Car Association from February to November last year. In these 10 months' data, only BMW's BMW 5 Series PHEV entered the top ten list. Among them, Mercedes-Benz and Audi were not on the list.</p><p>Among them, the gap between BMW and Tesla is relatively large. Even in the sales volume in November last year, the gap between Tesla Model 3 and BMW 5 Series PHEV was as much as 10 times.</p><p>Although the current performance of Model Y is still unknown, what is certain is that as the domestic Model Y strongly enters the domestic new energy SUV market, Tesla's threat to traditional car companies such as BBA will be even stronger. The situation of new energy vehicles is even more precarious.</p><p><b>3</b> <b>Just how ambitious is Tesla?</b></p><p>To clarify the ambitions of Musk and Tesla, we first need to answer a question-why does Tesla implement price cuts one after another?</p><p>Connected Travel once asked this question to many practitioners in the new energy vehicle industry, and the answer was nothing more than two words-cost advantage and scale effect.</p><p>The domestically produced Model Y is the second model released by Tesla in China. In order to make it an \"electric SUV that everyone can afford\", Musk has realized the sharing of parts between Model Y and Model 3. According to Tencent Technology, Mdoel Y is developed based on the Model 3 platform, and the parts sharing between the two has reached 75%.</p><p>As the mass production scale of domestically produced Model Y and Model 3 gradually increases, such parts sharing rates will continue to increase, and the cost of the whole vehicle will be reduced accordingly.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/cc5ce6a751b3c34814f784f83e330e0e\" tg-width=\"550\" tg-height=\"317\">Tesla Model 3 and Model Y, source Tesla official Weibo</p><p>According to<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/601377\">Industrial Securities</a>According to a research report, \"We expect that as the localization rate and output of Model Y parts continue to increase, there is still room for further reduction in the official selling price of Model Y model series, and the sales of Tesla products in the domestic market will continue to increase. situation.\"</p><p>According to data from the Passenger Car Association, in the first 11 months of 2020, Tesla's domestically produced Model 3 sales were 111,600 units, and Tesla accounted for 12% of the entire domestic new energy market with this model.</p><p>After the domestic Model Y goes on sale, Tesla's sales in the domestic market will reach a higher level in the future.</p><p>The fundamental purpose of Tesla's further price cuts is to further grab market share. The market share here is not only for the new energy vehicle industry, but to grab the entire automobile market including fuel vehicles.</p><p>\"Many people think that the domestic new energy vehicle market will be threatened when they look at Tesla's price cuts. But in fact, Tesla's price cuts are good for the new energy vehicle industry, because they can lead new energy vehicles to encroach on the fuel vehicle market.\" Liu Kai, a practitioner in the new energy vehicle industry, told Wired Travel.</p><p>It cannot be denied that this has become a trend.</p><p>According to the forecast of SPDB International, China<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/600617\">National New Energy</a>The automobile penetration rate will reach 20% in 2025, 40% in 2030, and 50% in 2035, that is, the compound growth rate in the next 15 years will reach 11%.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4c38d4579857d3e3347d3f9388c53cbf\" tg-width=\"550\" tg-height=\"311\">Changes in the penetration rate of new energy vehicles in China from 2025 to 2035, data from SPDB International, connected travel mapping</p><p>After gradually encroaching on the traditional fuel vehicle market, the commercialization of new energy vehicle-related industries can expand accordingly, which is exactly the ambition of Musk and Tesla.</p><p>According to media reports, Tesla will have plans to launch an app store similar to<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AAPL\">Apple</a>The App Store platform is another commercial attempt by Tesla since it opened up car owners to purchase software such as autonomous driving. Previously, car owners could purchase assisted driving functions, fully autonomous driving functions, and acceleration in the Tesla App. Performance improvement and other high-end features.</p><p>With the push of car owners to buy software, Musk is also trying to raise the price of software further. Take the AutoPilot function as an example. In November last year, Musk revealed to the media that he would increase the price of AutoPilot by another US $1,000. Before that, the software had been gradually increased from the earliest US $5,000 to US $7,000.</p><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/000750\">Guohai Securities</a>It was previously pointed out that Tesla is expected to build the world's largest automotive software ecosystem. If the Tesla App Store plan can be implemented, it is estimated that Tesla is expected to receive a $3.8 billion share from the software in 2025.</p><p>In addition to selling software, power batteries have also become another good business for Tesla.</p><p>Last September, at Tesla's \"Battery Day\", Musk not only released an imaginative new battery plan, but also stated that \"Tesla does not rule out providing batteries to other companies in the future.\" After the press conference, Tesla was regarded by the industry as the main threat to the power battery industry.</p><p>This means that Tesla will change from a power battery customer to a real contestant in two to three years.</p><p>In fact, in the new energy vehicle industry, there are many car companies that develop batteries while building cars, but the difference is that before Tesla developed its own batteries, it had already achieved a strong position in the power battery industry.</p><p>According to the latest data from SNE Research, a global battery industry research organization, LG Chem ranked first in the global power battery installed capacity ranking in the first quarter of 2020 with a market share of 27.1%, a surge of 117.1% compared with the same period last year. \"The biggest driving force for LG Chem's rising share in the power battery industry is Tesla.\" Wu Yihuan, chief researcher of SNE Research, told the media.</p><p>From the perspective of the industry, when Tesla really starts to develop its own batteries and achieve export sales, it will pose a huge threat to the share of power battery manufacturers such as LG Chem and Panasonic. In order to realize this as soon as possible, Tesla has already started the layout of self-research on power batteries.</p><p>According to Tesla's public information, Tesla currently owns a super battery factory in Nevada, USA. The factory has a production capacity of 20GWh, and its single-line output capacity has increased by 7 times. In December last year, Tesla also announced that it would build a power battery factory in Germany and Indonesia.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/875930895a1e1612648fb7097f4f5961\" tg-width=\"550\" tg-height=\"315\">Tesla Nevada Battery Gigafactory, source Tesla official Weibo</p><p>According to the plan, Tesla will achieve self-production of 100GWh power batteries in 2022, and by 2030, this number will rise to 3TWh (1TWh = 1000GWh).</p><p>\"If this goal is achieved, Tesla can not only solve the energy needs of its electric models, but also pose a big threat to the power battery industry.\" A power battery industry practitioner told Wired Travel.</p><p>In order to realize this ambition as soon as possible, it is certain that Tesla will still wield the big stick of price cuts in the future, even if it has to bear the risks agreed by the industry-after a series of price cuts, it will lead to Tesla's high-end brand positioning. downward.</p><p>But adventurer Musk, in order to realize his ambition, I'm afraid he's not worried about this.</p><p>(At the request of the interviewee, Liu Kai is a pseudonym in this article.)</p>","source":"lsy1575625456531","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Is the \"end\" of fuel vehicles coming? 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There must be a battle between Tesla and BBA\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">连线Insight</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-01-06 16:13</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>Text/Zhou Xiongfei</p><p>On New Year's Day,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TSLA\">Tesla</a>It has thrown a blockbuster on the new energy vehicle industry.</p><p>Two domestically produced Model Ys are officially launched-the Model Y Performance high-performance version with a starting price of 369,900 yuan and the Model Y long-range version with a starting price of 339,900 yuan.</p><p>Coinciding with the model launch is the price cut. Among them, the starting price of the Model Y long-range version has been reduced by 148,100 yuan compared with the previous 488,000 yuan; Compared with the previous 535,000 yuan, the Model Y Performance high-performance version has even been reduced by 165,100 yuan.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/29e976f688b8134332bc238c2c20030f\" tg-width=\"550\" tg-height=\"886\">Domestic Model Y is on sale, source: Tesla official Weibo</p><p>The price of the domestic Model Y was sharply reduced immediately after its launch. In the eyes of the outside world, domestic new energy car companies represented by the \"three car-making brothers\" will bear the brunt of the impact.</p><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/XPEV\">XPeng vehicles</a>CEO He XPeng took the lead in making a statement in the circle of friends, \"We are quite confident about the price reduction of friends (Tesla) on New Year's Day, and we didn't even hold a conference call. The price reduction has proved to be just a marketing method, and it is a double-edged sword.\"</p><p>Compared with XPeng's self-confidence,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NIO\">Nio</a>These days, I've been rather uneasy.</p><p>According to Jiemian News, due to the launch of the domestically produced Model Y, Nio suffered a large-scale unsubscription, which paralyzed Nio's official website. Soon, Nio responded: \"The news that the official website system suffered a large-scale refund is untrue, and we have filed a complaint against the relevant platform.\"</p><p>From the perspective of the industry, although the price reduction of the domestic Model Y will have some impact on the domestic new energy market, it will only be a short-term impact. In contrast, traditional fuel vehicle brands such as BMW, Mercedes-Benz and Audi will be more impacted.</p><p>At the same time, from price, battery life, brand power and<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/5RE.SI\">smart</a>In terms of electric models produced by fuel vehicle brands are even more powerless to compete with Tesla's domestically produced Model Y.</p><p>It is conceivable that in the future, Tesla will kill everyone in the traditional fuel vehicle market.</p><p>However, Tesla's ambitions don't stop there.</p><p><b>1</b> <b>Have the \"three car-making brothers\" been hit hard?</b></p><p>\"There were really too many people looking at cars a few days ago, and there was almost no time to rest.\" A Tesla store sales employee told Wired Travel.</p><p>During the New Year's Day holiday that has passed, in addition to many 5A-level scenic spots in China, the Tesla Experience Center also showed a sea of people.</p><p>In addition, Tesla's official website was once unable to be refreshed due to too many orders. \"It's obviously because (orders) have exploded again, and these are all expected,\" a person familiar with Tesla sales told Daily Economic News.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9afd97d783c9662dd4a6008f4db51394\" tg-width=\"550\" tg-height=\"268\">Tesla responded to the overcrowded official website, source Tesla customer support</p><p>In fact, this is not the first time Tesla has cut prices for domestic models.</p><p>Wired Insight once wrote in \"Price cuts\" cut leeks \"and record performance, where did Tesla win?\" The article described in detail Tesla's five price cuts for domestic Model 3 models last year, and after each price cut, there was a crowded scene.</p><p>As for Tesla's first SUV model sold in China, the domestic Model Y, it dropped by 160,000 after the sale, which not only far exceeded market expectations, but also was higher than the total price reduction of 50,000 of the domestic Model 3 five times. range. It is conceivable that such a price reduction is very attractive to consumers.</p><p>In addition to the \"really fragrant\" price, the domestic Model Y itself is also very capable of hitting.</p><p>According to Tesla's official website, the domestic Model Y long-range version has a cruising range of 594 kilometers and can accelerate from 0 to 100 kilometers in 5.1 seconds; The high-performance version has a battery life of 480 kilometers and can accelerate from 0 to 100 kilometers in 3.7 seconds. In terms of intelligence, both models also have OTA upgrades and automatic driving assistance systems.</p><p>Because of this, once the domestically produced Model Y was launched, it was regarded as a \"big killer\", and domestic new energy vehicle companies such as Nio, XPeng, and Ideal were directly affected.</p><p>\"There is no doubt that the domestically produced Model Y will directly compete with Nio's ES6 and EC6.\" Last year, Nio CEO Li Bin said this in an interview with the media. From the perspective of model and price alone, Model Y, ES6 and EC6 are both medium-sized SUVs, and the price of 339,900 for the former is also very close to the price of 358,000 and 368,000 for the low-end versions of the latter.</p><p>In addition, in terms of maximum speed and battery life, Nio's two cars do not have an advantage.</p><p>According to data from Nio's official website, the domestic Model Y has a maximum speed of 217km/h and a battery life of 594km; The top speed of ES6 and EC6 is both 200km/h, and the battery life is 420km and 430km respectively. The battery life of Model Y is much higher than that of the latter two models.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e042934554483dd9cb109835956850c0\" tg-width=\"550\" tg-height=\"124\">Comparison details of Tesla Mdoel Y with Nio ES6 and EC6, connected travel mapping</p><p>Although both Nio models can be equipped with 100kWh battery packs, giving a cruising range of more than 600 kilometers, they need to increase the price by 58,000 yuan, and the price of the whole vehicle exceeds 400,000 yuan, which is 40,000-50,000 higher than the previous price.</p><p>In comparison, the Model Y became a better choice.</p><p>As a result, according to multiple media reports, when the domestically produced Model Y was released, many Nio car owners reported that \"unsubscribing from Nio to change the Model Y\" and \"unsubscribing has crowded Nio's official website\". \"and other news. In this regard, although Nio officials quickly refuted rumors, there are still many discussions in the industry.</p><p>In addition to Nio, Ideal and XPeng, whose flagship products are both SUVs, have also been included in the range of the domestic Model Y. But compared with Nio, Ideal and XPeng have a calmer attitude.</p><p>This is related to the differentiated positioning of XPeng vehicles. Although the XPeng G3 is an SUV, the price of 140,000-190,000 just widens the price gap with the Model Y.</p><p>Ideal ONE, a subsidiary of Ideal, is also an SUV, and its price of 328,000 is very similar to that of the domestic Model Y. However, because the former uses an extended-range power mode, it also forms a certain difference from the Model Y pure electric mode.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c27f2c6d9cac42ead540cd3c42225889\" tg-width=\"550\" tg-height=\"114\">Tesla Model Y (middle), XPeng P7 (right), Ideal ONE, source Tesla/XPeng Motors/<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/LI\">Li Auto</a>Guanwei</p><p>For now, among the \"three car-making brothers\", Nio has been greatly affected, but from the perspective of the industry, such an impact will only be short-term.</p><p>\"Products such as Nio Motors and XPeng Motors have actually distanced themselves from Tesla products, and have formed some unique advantages of their own, which have been recognized by consumers. This can be seen from their sales.\" Cui Dongshu, secretary general of the Passenger Car Association, told Jiemian News.</p><p>At the beginning of this year, Nio, XPeng and Ideal all announced their sales results for last year.</p><p>According to data released by the three companies, in 2020, Nio delivered a total of 43,728 vehicles, a year-on-year increase of 112.6%; XPeng vehicles delivered a total of 27,041 vehicles, a year-on-year increase of 112%. Li Auto's performance ranks in the middle of the two. In 2020, a total of 32,624 Ideal ONE vehicles were delivered.</p><p>\"The loyalty of Nio, XPeng and the ideal circle group is extremely high. I don't think the impact of this area should be very great. The main impact of the price reduction of Tesla Model Y is still on the traditional car market.\" Cui Dongshu told the media.</p><p><b>2</b> <b>Is the end of fuel vehicles coming?</b></p><p>\"Fuel vehicles will disappear.\"</p><p>When Tesla CEO Elon Musk was asked by the media about his views on fuel vehicles in September last year, he used this sentence as an answer. Perhaps he felt that it was not rigorous enough. He added that \"there may be more. A little amount\". In his view, buying a fuel car is like \"riding a horse with a flip phone\".</p><p>With the launch of the domestically produced Model Y, Musk's attitude towards fuel vehicles immediately became the group will within Tesla.</p><p>According to<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/00700\">Tencent</a>Shenzhen Web reported that on January 1 this year, rumors such as \"today is the beginning of the end of fuel vehicles\" spread within Tesla. It's not just Tesla who has the same view. Qin Lihong, co-founder and president of Nio, once said, \"We are happy that any electric vehicle company in the world sells well. The next 10 years will be ten years when electric vehicles will continue to gain the share of fuel vehicles.\"</p><p>Wired Insight once wrote in \"Tesla's domestic Model Y is about to be launched, will Nio encounter the strongest threat?\" The article called the domestic Model Y Tesla's \"sharp tooth\". Looking at it now, compared with Nio, the fuel vehicle industry represented by BMW, Mercedes-Benz and Audi (BBA) is more threatened.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/69aed846fc260deaaf1f5a666afcbd5f\" tg-width=\"550\" tg-height=\"392\">Domestic model Y, picture source Tesla official website</p><p>Looking at the global luxury car market, China is already the largest luxury car market in the world. According to data from the Qianzhan Research Institute, in the regional distribution of global luxury car sales in 2019, China ranked first with a share of 31%. Looking at the domestic luxury car market, the three major BBA brands have always been among the top three.</p><p>According to data from CRRC, in the first half of 2020, Mercedes-Benz ranked first in domestic luxury car sales with cumulative sales of 339,800 units, while BMW and Audi ranked second and third with cumulative sales of 324,500 units and 301,200 units respectively. According to statistics, the three BBA brands occupy a total of 66.7% of the domestic market share.</p><p>Specific to the 300,000-400,000 yuan luxury car market, BMW owns the BMW X3, with an official price of 389,800-479,800 yuan, while the models of Audi and Mercedes-Benz in this price range are the Audi Q5L and Mercedes-Benz GLC, with prices respectively. They are 387,800-498,000 yuan and 397,800-587,800 yuan respectively.</p><p>A closer look reveals that these three models are all medium-sized SUVs, which are the same as the domestic Model Y model, and the latter is also the main high-end electric SUV. Therefore, there must be a battle between Model Y and these three models.</p><p>What cannot be ignored is that Model Y already has huge advantages. Not only does it have the intelligence that these fuel vehicles do not have, but at the same time, the price of 339,000 is much lower than these three models.</p><p>In addition to these, Model Y, as a new energy vehicle, can also be exempted from paying 10% vehicle purchase tax. It is conceivable that in the SUV market with the same price, Model Y, which can enjoy a better high-end and intelligent experience at a lower price, will pose a huge threat to BBA's fuel models.</p><p>According to Chedongxi reports, after the domestic Mdoel Y was released, not only young people went to the Tesla Experience Center to see cars, but also many old car owners who tend to buy BBA and other brands, or who already have models under the BBA brand, also went to see them. Model Y.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/fb44b05fbd5e0992280bd42c39f056dd\" tg-width=\"550\" tg-height=\"733\">After the domestic Model Y was released, a domestic Tesla experience center was overcrowded. Source interviewee</p><p>In order to cope with such risks, traditional fuel vehicle brands such as BMW, Mercedes-Benz and Audi are also deploying in the field of new energy vehicles.</p><p>In November 2019, Mercedes-Benz released its first electric medium-sized SUV, the Mercedes-Benz EQC, in the domestic market. Coincidentally, in the same month, Audi also released its first electric SUV, the Audi e-tron. In November last year, BMW also launched its electric SUV BMW iX3.</p><p>However, these three new energy models are still medium-sized SUVs, but in terms of price, BMW iX3 and Mercedes-Benz EQC are 40,000-50,000 more expensive than fuel vehicles of the same level, and Audi e-tron is even more expensive than Audi Q5L of the same level. More than 200,000 more expensive. This means that these electric models have no price advantage compared with Model Y, which is also a medium-sized electric SUV.</p><p>As the \"life gate\" of electric vehicles, BBA's electric vehicles do not have advantages.</p><p>According to data from various official websites of Connected Travel Statistics, the BMW iX3 has a battery life of 500km, the Audi e-tron has a battery life of 470km, and the Mercedes-Benz EQC has a battery life of only 415km. In comparison, the battery life of Model Y is as high as 594km.</p><p>In addition to price and battery life, intelligence has also become a particularly important factor for consumers when purchasing electric vehicles. At this point, BBA's electric vehicles are also in decline.</p><p>OTA (Over the Air) is the abbreviation of online upgrade. Simply put, through regular software updates, the overall performance of electric vehicles can be improved like smartphones. As a result, this function has become a crucial function in smart cars.</p><p>However, according to<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/ATHM\">Car Home</a>Data shows that these three electric vehicles under BBA do not have this function. From the perspective of the industry, there is no difference between electric vehicles lacking this function and ordinary fuel vehicles except in terms of power mode.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a2eaf89da842a32b6f623842341fe49b\" tg-width=\"550\" tg-height=\"285\">Performance comparison between domestic Model Y and BBA's electric vehicle models, screenshot from Autohome</p><p>Because of this, these three electric models under BBA have little voice in the domestic new energy vehicle market.</p><p>According to data from the Passenger Car Association, since its launch, only 1,211 Mercedes-Benz EQC have been sold as of July last year; Since the Audi e-tron went on sale, as of June last year, only 859 units have been sold in total. As a latecomer, the BMW iX3 has sold only 811 units since its release as of November last year.</p><p>In fact, Tesla already has an absolute advantage.</p><p>According to the \"Global New Energy Vehicle Sales Ranking for the First Half of 2020\" released by EV Sales, Tesla ranked first with 179,050 vehicles, while BMW, Audi and Mercedes-Benz all ranked behind Tesla, with BMW 58,883 vehicles are the closest to Tesla, but the two are almost three times as many.</p><p>In the domestic market, Wired Travel compiled statistics on the sales data of new energy cars released by the Passenger Car Association from February to November last year. In these 10 months' data, only BMW's BMW 5 Series PHEV entered the top ten list. Among them, Mercedes-Benz and Audi were not on the list.</p><p>Among them, the gap between BMW and Tesla is relatively large. Even in the sales volume in November last year, the gap between Tesla Model 3 and BMW 5 Series PHEV was as much as 10 times.</p><p>Although the current performance of Model Y is still unknown, what is certain is that as the domestic Model Y strongly enters the domestic new energy SUV market, Tesla's threat to traditional car companies such as BBA will be even stronger. The situation of new energy vehicles is even more precarious.</p><p><b>3</b> <b>Just how ambitious is Tesla?</b></p><p>To clarify the ambitions of Musk and Tesla, we first need to answer a question-why does Tesla implement price cuts one after another?</p><p>Connected Travel once asked this question to many practitioners in the new energy vehicle industry, and the answer was nothing more than two words-cost advantage and scale effect.</p><p>The domestically produced Model Y is the second model released by Tesla in China. In order to make it an \"electric SUV that everyone can afford\", Musk has realized the sharing of parts between Model Y and Model 3. According to Tencent Technology, Mdoel Y is developed based on the Model 3 platform, and the parts sharing between the two has reached 75%.</p><p>As the mass production scale of domestically produced Model Y and Model 3 gradually increases, such parts sharing rates will continue to increase, and the cost of the whole vehicle will be reduced accordingly.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/cc5ce6a751b3c34814f784f83e330e0e\" tg-width=\"550\" tg-height=\"317\">Tesla Model 3 and Model Y, source Tesla official Weibo</p><p>According to<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/601377\">Industrial Securities</a>According to a research report, \"We expect that as the localization rate and output of Model Y parts continue to increase, there is still room for further reduction in the official selling price of Model Y model series, and the sales of Tesla products in the domestic market will continue to increase. situation.\"</p><p>According to data from the Passenger Car Association, in the first 11 months of 2020, Tesla's domestically produced Model 3 sales were 111,600 units, and Tesla accounted for 12% of the entire domestic new energy market with this model.</p><p>After the domestic Model Y goes on sale, Tesla's sales in the domestic market will reach a higher level in the future.</p><p>The fundamental purpose of Tesla's further price cuts is to further grab market share. The market share here is not only for the new energy vehicle industry, but to grab the entire automobile market including fuel vehicles.</p><p>\"Many people think that the domestic new energy vehicle market will be threatened when they look at Tesla's price cuts. But in fact, Tesla's price cuts are good for the new energy vehicle industry, because they can lead new energy vehicles to encroach on the fuel vehicle market.\" Liu Kai, a practitioner in the new energy vehicle industry, told Wired Travel.</p><p>It cannot be denied that this has become a trend.</p><p>According to the forecast of SPDB International, China<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/600617\">National New Energy</a>The automobile penetration rate will reach 20% in 2025, 40% in 2030, and 50% in 2035, that is, the compound growth rate in the next 15 years will reach 11%.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4c38d4579857d3e3347d3f9388c53cbf\" tg-width=\"550\" tg-height=\"311\">Changes in the penetration rate of new energy vehicles in China from 2025 to 2035, data from SPDB International, connected travel mapping</p><p>After gradually encroaching on the traditional fuel vehicle market, the commercialization of new energy vehicle-related industries can expand accordingly, which is exactly the ambition of Musk and Tesla.</p><p>According to media reports, Tesla will have plans to launch an app store similar to<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AAPL\">Apple</a>The App Store platform is another commercial attempt by Tesla since it opened up car owners to purchase software such as autonomous driving. Previously, car owners could purchase assisted driving functions, fully autonomous driving functions, and acceleration in the Tesla App. Performance improvement and other high-end features.</p><p>With the push of car owners to buy software, Musk is also trying to raise the price of software further. Take the AutoPilot function as an example. In November last year, Musk revealed to the media that he would increase the price of AutoPilot by another US $1,000. Before that, the software had been gradually increased from the earliest US $5,000 to US $7,000.</p><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/000750\">Guohai Securities</a>It was previously pointed out that Tesla is expected to build the world's largest automotive software ecosystem. If the Tesla App Store plan can be implemented, it is estimated that Tesla is expected to receive a $3.8 billion share from the software in 2025.</p><p>In addition to selling software, power batteries have also become another good business for Tesla.</p><p>Last September, at Tesla's \"Battery Day\", Musk not only released an imaginative new battery plan, but also stated that \"Tesla does not rule out providing batteries to other companies in the future.\" After the press conference, Tesla was regarded by the industry as the main threat to the power battery industry.</p><p>This means that Tesla will change from a power battery customer to a real contestant in two to three years.</p><p>In fact, in the new energy vehicle industry, there are many car companies that develop batteries while building cars, but the difference is that before Tesla developed its own batteries, it had already achieved a strong position in the power battery industry.</p><p>According to the latest data from SNE Research, a global battery industry research organization, LG Chem ranked first in the global power battery installed capacity ranking in the first quarter of 2020 with a market share of 27.1%, a surge of 117.1% compared with the same period last year. \"The biggest driving force for LG Chem's rising share in the power battery industry is Tesla.\" Wu Yihuan, chief researcher of SNE Research, told the media.</p><p>From the perspective of the industry, when Tesla really starts to develop its own batteries and achieve export sales, it will pose a huge threat to the share of power battery manufacturers such as LG Chem and Panasonic. In order to realize this as soon as possible, Tesla has already started the layout of self-research on power batteries.</p><p>According to Tesla's public information, Tesla currently owns a super battery factory in Nevada, USA. The factory has a production capacity of 20GWh, and its single-line output capacity has increased by 7 times. In December last year, Tesla also announced that it would build a power battery factory in Germany and Indonesia.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/875930895a1e1612648fb7097f4f5961\" tg-width=\"550\" tg-height=\"315\">Tesla Nevada Battery Gigafactory, source Tesla official Weibo</p><p>According to the plan, Tesla will achieve self-production of 100GWh power batteries in 2022, and by 2030, this number will rise to 3TWh (1TWh = 1000GWh).</p><p>\"If this goal is achieved, Tesla can not only solve the energy needs of its electric models, but also pose a big threat to the power battery industry.\" A power battery industry practitioner told Wired Travel.</p><p>In order to realize this ambition as soon as possible, it is certain that Tesla will still wield the big stick of price cuts in the future, even if it has to bear the risks agreed by the industry-after a series of price cuts, it will lead to Tesla's high-end brand positioning. downward.</p><p>But adventurer Musk, in order to realize his ambition, I'm afraid he's not worried about this.</p><p>(At the request of the interviewee, Liu Kai is a pseudonym in this article.)</p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> source：<a href=\"http://finance.sina.com.cn/tech/csj/2021-01-06/doc-iiznezxt0880908.shtml\">连线Insight</a></p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9adb04caf54ed34badf9270524050e50","relate_stocks":{"TSLA":"特斯拉"},"source_url":"http://finance.sina.com.cn/tech/csj/2021-01-06/doc-iiznezxt0880908.shtml","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1134300311","content_text":"文/周雄飞\n元旦当天，特斯拉就给新能源汽车行业扔了一颗重磅炸弹。\n两款国产Model Y正式上市——分别为起售价36.99万元的Model Y Performance高性能版和起售价33.99万元的Model Y长续航版。\n与车型发布同时进行的是降价。其中，Model Y 长续航版的起售价相比于此前的48.8万元下调了14.81万元；Model Y Performance高性能版相比于此前的53.5万元甚至下调了16.51万元。\n国产Model Y发售，图源特斯拉官微\n国产Model Y上市随即大幅降价，在外界看来，“造车三兄弟”为代表的国内新能源车企们首当其冲将受到冲击。\n小鹏汽车CEO何小鹏率先在朋友圈中做出表态，“友商（特斯拉）在元旦的降价，我们挺有信心，连电话会都没有开，降价已证明仅仅是营销方式而已，而且是把双刃剑。”\n相比于小鹏的自信，蔚来这几天却过得比较忐忑。\n据界面新闻报道，由于国产Model Y的上市，蔚来遭遇大规模的退订，导致蔚来官网瘫痪。很快，蔚来方面做出回应表示：“官网系统遭遇大规模退单的消息不实，我们已经对相关平台发起投诉。”\n在业内看来，国产Model Y的降价上市虽然会对国内新能源市场带来一些冲击，但也只是短期的影响。而相比之下，宝马、奔驰和奥迪等传统燃油车品牌将会受到更大的冲击。\n同时，从价格、续航、品牌力和智能化方面，燃油车品牌生产的电动车型，在特斯拉国产Model Y面前，更是无力对抗。\n可想而知，在之后的时间里，特斯拉会在传统燃油车市场中大杀四方。\n然而，特斯拉的野心，还不止如此。\n1 “造车三兄弟”受的打击大吗？\n“前几天看车的人真的太多了，几乎没时间休息。”特斯拉一位门店销售员工对连线出行表示。\n在已经过去的元旦假期，国内除了众多5A级景区外，特斯拉体验中心也呈现出人山人海的景象。\n此外，特斯拉的官网也因订单过多，一度出现无法刷新的情况。“很明显是因为（订单）又爆了，这些都在预期之中。”一位熟悉特斯拉销售的人士对每日经济新闻表示。\n特斯拉回应官网被挤爆，图源特斯拉客户支持\n其实，这已不是特斯拉对国产车型的首次降价。\n连线Insight曾在《降价“割韭菜”、业绩创记录，特斯拉到底赢在哪？》一文中详细描述了特斯拉去年对国产Model 3车型的5次降价，并在每次降价后都呈现出门庭若市的场景。\n而对于特斯拉国内发售的首款SUV车型——国产Model Y而言，在发售后一下就降16万，不仅远超市场预期，同时也高于国产Model 3五次的合计5万的降价幅度。可想而知，这样的降价幅度对消费者的吸引力是巨大的。\n除了“真香”的价格，国产Model Y本身也很能打。\n据特斯拉官网显示，国产Model Y长续航版续航里程594公里，零百加速5.1秒；高性能版本续航480公里，零百加速3.7秒。在智能化方面，两种车型同样具备OTA升级和自动驾驶辅助系统。\n正因为这样，国产Model Y一经上市，就被看作是“大杀器”，直接受到影响的就是蔚来、小鹏、理想等国产新能源车企。\n“毫无疑问，国产Model Y将与蔚来旗下的ES6和EC6直接竞争。”去年，蔚来CEO李斌在接受媒体采访时这样表示。单从车型和价格上来看，Model Y与ES6、EC6同属于中型SUV，并且前者33.99万的售价与后者两款车的35.8万和36.8万的低配版价格也靠得很近。\n此外，在最高车速和续航方面，蔚来两款车并不占优势。\n据蔚来官网数据，国产Model Y的最高车速为217km/h，续航为594km；而ES6和EC6的最高车速同为200km/h，续航各为420km和430km。Model Y的续航远高于后者两款车型。\n特斯拉Mdoel Y与蔚来ES6、EC6对比详情， 连线出行制图\n虽然，蔚来这两款车型都可装配100kWh电池包，使续航里程超过600公里，但需要加价5.8万元，整车价格超过40万，足足比之前的售价高了4-5万。\n相比之下，Model Y成为了更好的选择。\n由此，据多家媒体报道，在国产Model Y发售之时，就有很多蔚来汽车车主群中就传出“退订蔚来改订Model Y”、“退订都把蔚来官网给挤爆了”等消息。对此，蔚来官方虽很快进行辟谣，但业内还是议论纷纷。\n除了蔚来，主打产品同为SUV的理想和小鹏，也被纳入了国产Model Y的打击射程之内。但相比于蔚来，理想和小鹏的态度更为淡定一些。\n这与小鹏汽车的差异化定位有关，小鹏G3虽属于SUV，而14-19万的定价，恰好与Model Y拉开了价格差距。\n而理想旗下的理想ONE同属于SUV，32.8万的定价与国产Model Y售价无比相近，但由于前者使用的是增程式动力模式，和Model Y纯电动的模式也形成了一定的差异化。\n特斯拉Model Y（中）与小鹏P7（右）、理想ONE， 图源特斯拉/小鹏汽车/理想汽车官微\n就目前而言，在“造车三兄弟”中，蔚来受到的影响较大，但在业内看来，这样的影响只会是短期的。\n“像蔚来汽车、小鹏汽车等产品，实际上与特斯拉产品拉开距离，并且已形成自己独特的一些优势，从而得到了消费者的认可，这点从他们的销量上就可以看到。”乘联会秘书长崔东树对界面新闻表示。\n今年年初，蔚来、小鹏和理想都公布了去年一年的销量成绩。\n据三家公布数据显示，2020年全年，蔚来累计交付43728辆，同比增长112.6%；小鹏汽车累计交付27041辆，同比增长112%。而理想汽车的成绩居于两者中间，2020年全年，理想ONE总计交付32624辆。\n“蔚来、小鹏和理想的圈层群体的忠诚度极高，我觉得这块的影响应该并不是很大。特斯拉Model Y的降价主要的影响还是对传统车市场。”崔东树这样对媒体表示。\n2 燃油车的末日要来了？\n“燃油车会消失。”\n特斯拉CEO埃隆•马斯克在去年9月，被媒体问到对于燃油车的看法时，他曾以这句话作为回答，或许是觉得不够严谨，他又补充道“可能还会有一点点量”。在他看来，购买燃油汽车就像是“骑着马用翻盖手机”。\n随着国产Model Y的上市，马斯克对于燃油车的态度，随即成为了特斯拉内部的群体意志。\n据腾讯深网报道，今年1月1日，特斯拉内部就传出了“今天是燃油车末日的开启”等传言。有同样看法的不只是特斯拉，蔚来联合创始人、总裁秦力洪曾表示，“天下任何一家电动车企业卖得好，我们都高兴。接下来的10年是电动车不断取得燃油车份额的十年。”\n连线Insight曾在《特斯拉国产Model Y即将上市，蔚来将遭遇最强威胁？》一文中将国产Model Y称作是特斯拉的“利齿”。如今来看，相比蔚来，更受威胁的，是宝马、奔驰和奥迪（BBA）等为代表的燃油车行业。\n国产model Y，图源特斯拉官网\n放眼全球豪华车市场，中国已是全球第一大豪华车市场。据前瞻研究院数据显示，2019年全球豪华车销量区域分布中，中国以31%的份额占据第一。再来看国内豪华车市场，BBA三大品牌一直以来稳居前三。\n据中车网数据，2020年上半年，奔驰以33.98万辆的累计销量占据国内豪华车销量榜首位，宝马和奥迪分别以累计32.45万辆和30.12万台分居二、三位。另据统计，BBA三个品牌共占据国内66.7%的市场份额。\n具体到30-40万元豪华车市场来看，宝马旗下有宝马X3，官方售价为38.98-47.98万元，而奥迪和奔驰在这一价格区间的车型分别是奥迪Q5L和奔驰GLC，售价分别为38.78-49.8万元与39.78-58.78万元。\n细看可以发现，这三个车型均属于中型SUV，与国产Model Y车型相同，而后者也是主打高端电动SUV，因此，Model Y与这三款车型之间必有一战。\n不可忽视的是，Model Y已有巨大优势，不仅具备这几款燃油车没有的智能化，同时，33.9万的售价也远低于这三款车型。\n除了这些，Model Y作为新能源汽车，还能免缴纳10%的车辆购置税。可想而知，在同等价格的SUV市场中，可以用更低的价格享受更好的高端化与智能化体验的Model Y，将对BBA旗下的燃油车型造成巨大的威胁。\n据车东西报道，在国产Mdoel Y 发售后，去特斯拉体验中心看车的不仅只有年轻人，同时还有很多倾向于买BBA等品牌，或者已有BBA品牌旗下车型的老车主也来看Model Y。\n国产Model Y发售后国内某特斯拉体验中心人满为患， 图源受访者\n为了应对这样的风险，宝马、奔驰和奥迪等传统燃油车品牌，也在新能源汽车领域布局。\n奔驰在2019年11月，在国内市场上发布了首款电动中型SUV奔驰EQC，无独有偶，在同月奥迪也发布了旗下首款电动SUV奥迪e-tron。而到了去年11月，宝马也推出旗下的电动SUV宝马iX3。\n但是，这三款新能源车型依然是中型SUV，但从售价上来看，宝马iX3和奔驰EQC均比同级别的燃油车车型贵4-5万，奥迪e-tron甚至比同级别的奥迪Q5L贵20多万。这就意味着，这几款电动车型与同属于中型电动SUV的Model Y相比在价格上没有任何优势。\n作为电动车“命门”的续航方面，BBA旗下的电动车也不具有优势。\n据连线出行统计各家官网数据可见，宝马iX3的续航为500km，奥迪e-tron则为470km，而奔驰EQC的续航甚至仅为415km。相较之下，Model Y的续航则高达594km。\n除了价格和续航之外，智能化也已成为了消费者选购电动车尤为看重的因素，而这一点上，BBA旗下的电动车同样处于颓势。\nOTA(Over the Air)是在线升级的简称，简单说，就是通过定期的软件更新，让电动汽车像智能手机一样，使整体性能得到提升。由此，这一功能已成为智能汽车化方面至关重要的功能。\n然而，据汽车之家数据显示，BBA旗下的这三款电动车并不具备这一功能。在业内看来，缺少这一功能的电动车与普通燃油车，除了在动力方式之外，并没有任何区别。\n国产Model Y与BBA旗下电动车车型性能对比， 截图自汽车之家\n正因如此，BBA旗下的这三款电动车型在国内新能源汽车市场中没有什么声量。\n据乘联会数据显示，奔驰EQC自上市以来，截至去年7月仅卖出了1211辆；奥迪e-tron自发售以来，截至去年6月，总销量仅为859辆。而作为后来者的宝马iX3，自发售截至去年11月，销量也仅为811辆。\n其实，特斯拉已具备绝对优势。\n据EV Sales 发布的《2020年上半年全球新能源汽车销量排行榜》显示，特斯拉以179050辆排在第一位，而宝马、奥迪和奔驰都排在特斯拉身后，其中宝马以58883辆与特斯拉最为相近，但两者几乎有3倍之多。\n而在国内市场，连线出行统计了自去年2月到11月的乘联会发布的新能源轿车销量数据，在这10个月的数据中仅有宝马旗下宝马5系PHEV进入前十榜单中，而奔驰和奥迪均未入榜。\n其中，宝马这款车型与特斯拉的差距偏大，甚至在去年11月销量中，特斯拉Model 3与宝马5系PHEV的差距有10倍之多。\n虽然目前Model Y的表现如何尚不可知，但可以确定的是，随着国产Model Y强势进入国内新能源SUV市场中，特斯拉对BBA等传统车企的威胁会更加强势，后者旗下的新能源车型的处境，更是岌岌可危。\n3 特斯拉的野心到底有多大？\n要说清马斯克和特斯拉的野心，首先需要解答一个问题——特斯拉为什么要接二连三地实施降价？\n连线出行曾将这个问题向多位新能源汽车行业的从业者提问，得到的答案无外乎是两个词——成本优势和规模效应。\n国产Model Y 作为特斯拉在国内发布的第二款车型，马斯克为了让其成为“大家都买得起的电动SUV”，Model Y 与Model 3已实现了零部件上的共享。据腾讯科技报道，Mdoel Y是基于Model 3平台研发，两者的零部件共享达到了75%。\n而随着国产Model Y和Model 3的量产规模逐渐增加，这样的零件共享率将继续提升，整车成本随之得到降低。\n特斯拉Model 3和Model Y，图源特斯拉官微\n据兴业证券的一份研报显示，\"我们预计伴随Model Y零部件国产化率与产量持续提升，Model Y车型序列的官方售价仍有进一步的降低空间，持续提升特斯拉产品在国内市场的销量情况。\"\n据乘联会数据，2020年前11月，特斯拉国产Model 3的销量为11.16万辆，特斯拉凭借这一车型就占据了整个国内新能源市场的12%。\n而国产Model Y开售后，未来特斯拉在国内市场的销量将更上一层楼。\n特斯拉的进一步降价，根本目的就是为了进一步抢夺市场份额，这里的市场份额并不只是新能源汽车行业的，而是去抢夺包括燃油车在内的整个汽车市场。\n“很多人看特斯拉降价，就觉得是国内新能源汽车市场将受到威胁。但事实上，特斯拉降价对新能源汽车行业是利好的，因为可以带领新能源汽车去蚕食燃油车市场。”新能源汽车行业从业者刘凯对连线出行表示。\n不能否认的是，这已成为一个趋势。\n据浦银国际预测，中国新能源汽车渗透率将在2025 年达到20%，2030 年达到40%，2035 年达到50%，即未来15年的复合增长率将达到11%。\n2025-2035年中国新能源汽车渗透率变化图， 数据来源于浦银国际，连线出行制图\n在一步步蚕食传统燃油车市场后，新能源汽车相关行业的商业化就能随之扩大，这也正是马斯克和特斯拉的野心。\n据媒体报道，特斯拉将有计划推出应用商店，类似于苹果应用商店（App Store）的平台，这也是特斯拉自开放车主可以购买自动驾驶等软件后又一商业尝试，此前车主可以在特斯拉 App 中购买辅助驾驶功能、完全自动驾驶功能、加速性能提升以及其他高端功能。\n随着车主购买软件的推动，马斯克也试图将软件的价格进一步提高。以AutoPilot功能为例，曾在去年11月，马斯克向媒体透露道，会将AutoPilot的价格再提高1000美元，而在这之前，这套软件已从最早的5000美元逐步提高到7000美元。\n国海证券此前也指出，特斯拉有望构建全球最大的汽车软件生态。如果特斯拉应用商店这一计划可以落地，预计2025年特斯拉有望从软件中获得38亿美元分成。\n除了卖软件之外，动力电池也成为了特斯拉的另一门好生意。\n去年9月，在特斯拉“电池日”上，马斯克不仅发布了具有想象力的新电池计划，同时也表示“特斯拉未来并不排除为其他公司提供电池”。发布会结束后，特斯拉就被业内视为对动力电池行业的主要威胁。\n这就意味着，特斯拉在两到三年后，将从动力电池的客户变为真正的参赛选手。\n其实，在新能源汽车行业中，一边造车一边研发电池的车企大有人在，只不过不同的是，特斯拉在自研电池之前，已在动力电池行业中做到了“呼风唤雨”的强势地位。\n据全球电池行业调研机构SNE Research的最新数据，2020年第一季度全球动力电池装机量排名中，LG化学以27.1%的市占率跃居首位，相较去年同期激增117.1%。“LG化学在动力电池行业中的占有率上升，最大的推动力就是特斯拉。”SNE Research首席研究员吴益焕对媒体表示。\n在业内看来，当特斯拉真正开始自研电池并实现外销后，其对于LG化学、松下等动力电池厂商的占有率是巨大的威胁。而为了早日实现这点，特斯拉早已开始了在动力电池自研方面的布局。\n据特斯拉公开消息可知，目前特斯拉已拥有美国内华达州的一座超级电池工厂，该工厂已具备20GWh的产能，单线产出能力已提升7倍。去年12月，特斯拉还宣布将在德国和印尼各建立一座动力电池工厂。\n特斯拉内华达州电池超级工厂，图源特斯拉官微\n按照计划，特斯拉将在2022年实现100GWh动力电池的自产，而到了2030年，这一数字将升至3TWh（1TWh=1000GWh）。\n“假若这一目标得以实现，特斯拉不仅可以解决旗下电动车型的能源需求，同时对于动力电池行业也是不小的威胁。”一位动力电池行业从业者对连线出行表示。\n为了尽快实现这一野心，可以确定的是，特斯拉在之后依然会挥舞着降价的大棒，即使要承担起业内一致认为的风险——一系列的降价之后，会导致特斯拉高端品牌定位的下行。\n但冒险家马斯克，为了实现自己的野心，恐怕并不担心这个。\n（应受访者要求，文中刘凯为化名。）","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"TSLA":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":608,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0}],"lives":[]}
