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2024-01-14

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2024-01-03

666

@TigerEvents:🐅🌟 TIGER TYCOON CHALLENGE IS ON! 🌟🐅

2023-12-12

$Palantir Technologies Inc.(PLTR)$

2022-09-30

$纳指三倍做空ETF(SQQQ)$

2021-12-24

ok

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2021-06-28

111

The brokerage strategy will stage a war of words! The "leader lies down and wins" strategy fails?

2021-06-18

？

Hawkish Signal! The Federal Reserve is gradually changing its face, what about the property market and stock market?

2021-05-29

I

Last night and this morning: The short squeeze market for retail investors is temporarily suspended! Biden unveils $6 trillion budget

2021-05-27

111

The signal suggests that markets are downplaying concerns about Fed tightening this summer

2021-05-27

Hi

Three major factors indicate that the "water reverse period" of technology stocks is still not over

2021-05-03

666

Is the GDP of the United States strong or weak in the first quarter?

2021-05-01

?

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Go to Tiger App to see more news

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Introducing the Tiger Tycoon Challenge – where fortunes are made, and USD 888 worth of prizes await the boldest players! 🏰🌈🎯 Objective: Build your empire, score big points, and unlock fabulous rewards!💰 Gold Rush: Grab those shiny gold coins every time you pass by it! Cha-ching! 💰💵🏠 Construct & Conquer: Step on an empty tile to construct a building to gain points! 🏰🏆 Prizes Galore: Hit the prize tile to claim your treasure – it could be anything! 🎁✨🔄 Lucky Draw: Land on the draw tile and brace yourself! You might move forward, backward, or even unlock a secret power! 🔄🔮🚀 Airdrop Alert: Keep your eyes on the sky! Periodically, the Tiger Tycoon map will rain down special rewards like stocks, vouchers, and more. Fastest finge","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":2,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/248312805347464","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":0,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2436,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":251274818994280,"gmtCreate":1702383715547,"gmtModify":1702383718424,"author":{"id":"3573688531814941","authorId":"3573688531814941","name":"ccssyy","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/788037228f49cc166fdc5223f0073775","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3573688531814941","idStr":"3573688531814941"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/PLTR\">$Palantir Technologies Inc.(PLTR)$ </a>&nbsp;","listText":"<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/PLTR\">$Palantir Technologies Inc.(PLTR)$ </a>&nbsp;","text":"$Palantir Technologies Inc.(PLTR)$","images":[{"img":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/4eca804b1d7bfd8510044aad5ae3a8e9","width":"906","height":"1406"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/251274818994280","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2281,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9916384387,"gmtCreate":1664511428849,"gmtModify":1676537469196,"author":{"id":"3573688531814941","authorId":"3573688531814941","name":"ccssyy","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/788037228f49cc166fdc5223f0073775","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3573688531814941","idStr":"3573688531814941"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/SQQQ\">$纳指三倍做空ETF(SQQQ)$</a><v-v data-views=\"1\"></v-v>","listText":"<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/SQQQ\">$纳指三倍做空ETF(SQQQ)$</a><v-v data-views=\"1\"></v-v>","text":"$纳指三倍做空ETF(SQQQ)$","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9916384387","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2017,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9009091229,"gmtCreate":1640343023262,"gmtModify":1676533517464,"author":{"id":"3573688531814941","authorId":"3573688531814941","name":"ccssyy","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/788037228f49cc166fdc5223f0073775","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3573688531814941","idStr":"3573688531814941"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"ok","listText":"ok","text":"ok","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9009091229","repostId":"1169357395","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2821,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":127962201,"gmtCreate":1624819136703,"gmtModify":1703845506737,"author":{"id":"3573688531814941","authorId":"3573688531814941","name":"ccssyy","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/788037228f49cc166fdc5223f0073775","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3573688531814941","idStr":"3573688531814941"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"111","listText":"111","text":"111","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":2,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/127962201","repostId":"1192656485","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1192656485","kind":"news","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"致力于提供最及时的财经资讯，最专业的解读分析，覆盖宏观经济、金融机构、A股市场、上市公司、投资理财等财经领域。","home_visible":1,"media_name":"券商中国","id":"9","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d482d56459984e8c86a6a137295b3c4f"},"pubTimestamp":1624760703,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1192656485?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2021-06-27 10:25","market":"sh","language":"zh","title":"The brokerage strategy will stage a war of words! The \"leader lies down and wins\" strategy fails?","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1192656485","media":"券商中国","summary":"2021年上半年即将过去，多家券商的年中策略会正紧锣密鼓的进行。围绕下半年A股走势、投资风格和资产配置，各家券商展开了一场看不见的“唇枪舌战”。\n去年11月至今年2月中旬，大市值白马股屡创超额收益并带","content":"<p>The first half of 2021 is coming to an end, and the mid-year strategy meetings of many securities firms are in full swing. Focusing on the trend, investment style and asset allocation of A shares in the second half of the year, various securities firms launched an invisible \"war of words\".</p><p>From November last year to mid-February this year, white horse stocks with large market capitalization repeatedly hit excess returns and drove market valuations upward; Since early March this year, the market value of many white horse stocks has experienced a sharp correction, and even hit a new low this year's stock price, causing many \"top fund managers\" to be on the verge of \"myth shattering\".</p><p>For this reason, the white horse stocks represented by the Mao Index also experienced a \"fight\" phenomenon at the mid-year brokerage strategy meeting. Some chief strategists of securities firms believe that the simple \"leader lying down and winning\" strategy fails, and growth should be the first priority in allocation; Some chief strategists of securities firms said that the long-term bull characteristics of leading companies will become more and more obvious, and the correction since the Spring Festival is only a self-correction of cost performance, which is still worth allocating.</p><p>It is worth mentioning that since the beginning of this year, the market style and epidemic control situation have changed. Looking back at some strategies six months ago, many of them have gone astray or even overturned.</p><p><b>Is the Mao index leader still worth embracing?</b></p><p>A-share investors still remember the surge in market value of leading companies in various industries since November last year, and affectionately call them \"Industry + Mao\".</p><p>However, the strategy of \"winning by lying down\" has gradually failed since March this year, such as \"real estate mao\"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/000002\">Vanke A</a>, \"Insurance Mao\"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/601318\">China Ping An</a>, \"Cement Mao\"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/600585\">Conch Cement</a>, and \"home appliance mao\"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/000651\">Gree Electric</a>When stock prices pulled back one after another, some stock prices even hit new lows for a period of time.</p><p>On June 22, Chen Guo, chief analyst of Essence Securities, said at the mid-year strategy meeting that the current main line of the market is changing. Since March, the second-tier leaders of some core tracks have performed better than the first-tier leaders of some traditional tracks. In the future, the simple \"leader lying down and winning\" strategy in the market will fail, and the logical growth of configuration will rank first, and the core of the market will also return to \"long track + high prosperity\".</p><p>Chen Guo further pointed out that in recent years, A-shares have gradually emerged from a number of hard technology strength companies with rapid asset expansion, rapid performance improvement, and continuous strengthening of global competitiveness. From an investment perspective, the market outlook for semiconductors, new energy, medical services, military industry, new materials, labor<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/5RE.SI\">smart</a>And other industries deserve special attention.</p><p>On June 23,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/600837\">Haitong Securities</a>The 2021 medium-term investment strategy report meeting was held in Beijing.<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/06837\">Haitong Securities</a>Xun Yugen, chief economist, believes that the differentiation trend of A-share stocks and funds will continue, and the Matthew effect of polarization of my country's stock market will be more significant in the future; In terms of market value structure, the ultra-large market value group has continued to dominate since 2017.</p><p>For the second half of 2021, Xun Yugen said that only by keeping upright can we win. He further explained that the first echelon of ultra-large market capitalization companies represented by the Mao Index are still worth allocating, but under the general trend of industrial upgrading, intelligent manufacturing in the medium and large market is the key to obtaining excess returns.</p><p>Xun Yugen believes that in the future, with the gradual advancement of institutionalization and internationalization of A-shares, the long-term bull characteristics of leading companies represented by Mao Index will become more and more obvious, and the correction since the Spring Festival is only a self-correction of cost performance.</p><p>\"Surprisingly, the mid-to-large market is more cost-effective. As the economy gradually gets on the right track, the relative advantage of ultra-large-cap stocks represented by the Mao Index in fundamentals will not be as extreme as last year. Referring to US stocks, the second A-share market value of 20-80 billion in the future is expected to further grow bigger and stronger.\" Xun Yugen said.</p><p><b>Allocating growth stocks has become a consensus</b></p><p><b>Brokerage Chinese reporters have noticed that the core assets that have been won in the past few years are no longer cheap, and they are facing shocks and differentiation in terms of valuation and profitability. Many brokerages have proposed to focus on growth stocks in their medium-term strategy meetings.</b></p><p>Mid-June,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/601377\">Industrial Securities</a>At the mid-term strategy meeting, Zhang Yidong, global chief strategist of Industrial Securities, said that in the second half of the year, the domestic investment style was dominated by growth stocks and supplemented by value stocks. The sharp differentiation between growth and value has converged, and the relative cost performance of value stocks has decreased.</p><p>Zhang Yidong said that science and technology innovation will lead the \"future core assets\". Since the beginning of this year, foreign positions have undergone obvious changes, and science and technology innovation board has become the new favorite. Secondly, the \"future core assets\" represented by science and technology innovation board and Growth Enterprise Market are relatively cost-effective. The PE ratio of CSI 500/CSI 300 and the PE ratio of GEM and CSI 300 are at historical lows.</p><p>In early June,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/600030\">CITIC Securities</a>At the medium-term strategy meeting, it was proposed that A-shares will enter a resonant upward period in the \"trilogy\" of slow growth in the second half of the year, and there will be more room in the fourth quarter. It is estimated that the net inflow of A-shares will reach 220 billion yuan in the second half of the year. Among them, under the expectation of RMB appreciation, foreign capital inflows may continue to exceed expectations.</p><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/06030\">CITIC Securities</a>He said that in terms of configuration, it is recommended to downplay cyclical thinking, focus on growth in the third quarter, and increase large consumption in the fourth quarter. Among them, the growth category includes growth manufacturing (new energy, semiconductor materials, national defense security and technology-enabled manufacturing, etc.) and growth consumption (cosmetics, medical beauty, sportswear and new tobacco, etc.); Large consumption mainly includes e-commerce, online consumption with a high proportion (branded clothing, beauty cosmetics and daily chemicals), and optional durable consumer goods (home appliances, automobiles and 3C electronics).</p><p>On June 16,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/601995\">CICC</a>At the investment strategy meeting in the second half of 2021,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/03908\">CICC</a>Chief strategist Wang Hanfeng said that looking forward to the second half of the year, although the market is currently paying more attention to inflation or stagflation, the impact of the epidemic is not only reflected on the supply side, but also on the demand side. The recovery of China's consumer demand is currently weak. In the second half of the year, the market may gradually pay more attention to the sustainability of growth and possible policy adjustments. The market style is expected to gradually return to the \"growth\" style.</p><p>Wang Hanfeng said that considering factors such as growth, valuation, policies and overseas markets, the overall performance of the Chinese market in the second half of the year may be neutral, but the structure is relatively optimistic, and the style rotation of value outperforming growth may have come to an end; At the allocation level, it is suggested to \"light index, heavy structure, and partial growth\", and re-emphasize the general trend of \"new economy\" such as China's industrial upgrading and consumption upgrading after the market consolidation in the first half of the year.</p><p><b>Looking back at the strategy report six months ago</b></p><p><b>The brokerage strategy meeting is a stage for brokerages to show professional research and judgment. Almost every brokerage will hold it at the end of the year, in the middle of the year or even quarterly. However, the change of macro environment and the style of A-share market sometimes makes the strategies of some securities firms slightly embarrassing.</b></p><p>Looking back at 2020, the market first \"epidemic\" and then rose, and rebounded in shock. On December 31, 2020, the three major A-share stock indexes closed in the red across the board, and the Shanghai Composite Index broke through the year's high of 3,465.73 points, setting a new high since February 6, 2018. For the whole year of 2020, the Shanghai Composite Index rose by 13.87%, the Shenzhen Component Index rose by 38.73%, and the ChiNext Index rose by 64.96%. Brokerages and Public Offering of Fund have achieved good results as a whole.</p><p>Most securities firms will put their strategies for 2021 at the end of 2020 and have greater confidence in 2021.</p><p>2021, as the first year of the \"14th Five-Year Plan\" and the first year after the \"thirtieth\" of A-shares, has shown a new look in terms of system, investor structure, and the quality of the development of listed companies, and the outside world is all concerned about novel coronavirus pneumonia. We have confidence in epidemic control and firmly believe that we can \"open the world map\" again.</p><p>For example, in November 2020,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/600369\">Southwest Securities</a>At the 2021 strategy meeting, the strategy team of Southwest Securities believes that at present, it is in the relay of the third big bull market in the history of A-shares, and the economic recovery continues to be better than expected. At the end of the year, the market is getting better and better, and there are opportunities for cyclical growth.</p><p>Zhu Bin, chief strategist of Southwest Securities, said in an interview with the media that looking forward to the market in 2021, the high point of this bull market is expected to be around 4,000 points. From the perspective of investment structure, investment in the three major fields of manufacturing, real estate and infrastructure has fully recovered.</p><p>Based on the judgment of the long-term, medium-term and short-term economic cycles, as well as the forecast of A-share earnings, valuation, supply and demand,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/601688\">Huatai Securities</a>The strategy team also believes that A-shares will still be on the \"bull back\" in 2021, and the main line of top-down investment is: global reflation and manufacturing investment cycle recovery; Corresponding allocation ideas: trading \"re-inflation\", with bulk as the shield and manufacturing as the spear.</p><p>In December 2020, Dongguan Securities released its A-share investment strategy for the first half of 2021. In its strategy report, the company believes that the global economic situation is expected to usher in a gradual recovery in the first half of 2021, while the domestic economic operation has returned to normal, and domestic demand such as investment and consumption is still supported by policies. The economy will continue to pick up in 2021. It is expected that the annual GDP growth rate is about 7%, showing a pattern of first high and then stable.</p><p>The recurrence of the epidemic and the mutation of the virus are beyond the imagination of some strategic analysts. For example, last December,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/002500\">Shanxi Securities</a>The strategy team believes that the global economy is expected to emerge from the epidemic in 2021, and the establishment of an immune barrier through global vaccines will completely end the epidemic, which will recover significantly and have a positive impact on the equity market. The domestic economy continues to recover, policies have returned to normal in an orderly manner, and manufacturing investment and service consumption have become new driving forces leading the next stage of domestic economic recovery.</p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>The brokerage strategy will stage a war of words! The \"leader lies down and wins\" strategy fails?</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nThe brokerage strategy will stage a war of words! The \"leader lies down and wins\" strategy fails?\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/9\">\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/d482d56459984e8c86a6a137295b3c4f);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">券商中国 </p>\n<p class=\"h-time smaller\">2021-06-27 10:25</p>\n</div>\n</a>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>The first half of 2021 is coming to an end, and the mid-year strategy meetings of many securities firms are in full swing. Focusing on the trend, investment style and asset allocation of A shares in the second half of the year, various securities firms launched an invisible \"war of words\".</p><p>From November last year to mid-February this year, white horse stocks with large market capitalization repeatedly hit excess returns and drove market valuations upward; Since early March this year, the market value of many white horse stocks has experienced a sharp correction, and even hit a new low this year's stock price, causing many \"top fund managers\" to be on the verge of \"myth shattering\".</p><p>For this reason, the white horse stocks represented by the Mao Index also experienced a \"fight\" phenomenon at the mid-year brokerage strategy meeting. Some chief strategists of securities firms believe that the simple \"leader lying down and winning\" strategy fails, and growth should be the first priority in allocation; Some chief strategists of securities firms said that the long-term bull characteristics of leading companies will become more and more obvious, and the correction since the Spring Festival is only a self-correction of cost performance, which is still worth allocating.</p><p>It is worth mentioning that since the beginning of this year, the market style and epidemic control situation have changed. Looking back at some strategies six months ago, many of them have gone astray or even overturned.</p><p><b>Is the Mao index leader still worth embracing?</b></p><p>A-share investors still remember the surge in market value of leading companies in various industries since November last year, and affectionately call them \"Industry + Mao\".</p><p>However, the strategy of \"winning by lying down\" has gradually failed since March this year, such as \"real estate mao\"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/000002\">Vanke A</a>, \"Insurance Mao\"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/601318\">China Ping An</a>, \"Cement Mao\"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/600585\">Conch Cement</a>, and \"home appliance mao\"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/000651\">Gree Electric</a>When stock prices pulled back one after another, some stock prices even hit new lows for a period of time.</p><p>On June 22, Chen Guo, chief analyst of Essence Securities, said at the mid-year strategy meeting that the current main line of the market is changing. Since March, the second-tier leaders of some core tracks have performed better than the first-tier leaders of some traditional tracks. In the future, the simple \"leader lying down and winning\" strategy in the market will fail, and the logical growth of configuration will rank first, and the core of the market will also return to \"long track + high prosperity\".</p><p>Chen Guo further pointed out that in recent years, A-shares have gradually emerged from a number of hard technology strength companies with rapid asset expansion, rapid performance improvement, and continuous strengthening of global competitiveness. From an investment perspective, the market outlook for semiconductors, new energy, medical services, military industry, new materials, labor<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/5RE.SI\">smart</a>And other industries deserve special attention.</p><p>On June 23,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/600837\">Haitong Securities</a>The 2021 medium-term investment strategy report meeting was held in Beijing.<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/06837\">Haitong Securities</a>Xun Yugen, chief economist, believes that the differentiation trend of A-share stocks and funds will continue, and the Matthew effect of polarization of my country's stock market will be more significant in the future; In terms of market value structure, the ultra-large market value group has continued to dominate since 2017.</p><p>For the second half of 2021, Xun Yugen said that only by keeping upright can we win. He further explained that the first echelon of ultra-large market capitalization companies represented by the Mao Index are still worth allocating, but under the general trend of industrial upgrading, intelligent manufacturing in the medium and large market is the key to obtaining excess returns.</p><p>Xun Yugen believes that in the future, with the gradual advancement of institutionalization and internationalization of A-shares, the long-term bull characteristics of leading companies represented by Mao Index will become more and more obvious, and the correction since the Spring Festival is only a self-correction of cost performance.</p><p>\"Surprisingly, the mid-to-large market is more cost-effective. As the economy gradually gets on the right track, the relative advantage of ultra-large-cap stocks represented by the Mao Index in fundamentals will not be as extreme as last year. Referring to US stocks, the second A-share market value of 20-80 billion in the future is expected to further grow bigger and stronger.\" Xun Yugen said.</p><p><b>Allocating growth stocks has become a consensus</b></p><p><b>Brokerage Chinese reporters have noticed that the core assets that have been won in the past few years are no longer cheap, and they are facing shocks and differentiation in terms of valuation and profitability. Many brokerages have proposed to focus on growth stocks in their medium-term strategy meetings.</b></p><p>Mid-June,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/601377\">Industrial Securities</a>At the mid-term strategy meeting, Zhang Yidong, global chief strategist of Industrial Securities, said that in the second half of the year, the domestic investment style was dominated by growth stocks and supplemented by value stocks. The sharp differentiation between growth and value has converged, and the relative cost performance of value stocks has decreased.</p><p>Zhang Yidong said that science and technology innovation will lead the \"future core assets\". Since the beginning of this year, foreign positions have undergone obvious changes, and science and technology innovation board has become the new favorite. Secondly, the \"future core assets\" represented by science and technology innovation board and Growth Enterprise Market are relatively cost-effective. The PE ratio of CSI 500/CSI 300 and the PE ratio of GEM and CSI 300 are at historical lows.</p><p>In early June,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/600030\">CITIC Securities</a>At the medium-term strategy meeting, it was proposed that A-shares will enter a resonant upward period in the \"trilogy\" of slow growth in the second half of the year, and there will be more room in the fourth quarter. It is estimated that the net inflow of A-shares will reach 220 billion yuan in the second half of the year. Among them, under the expectation of RMB appreciation, foreign capital inflows may continue to exceed expectations.</p><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/06030\">CITIC Securities</a>He said that in terms of configuration, it is recommended to downplay cyclical thinking, focus on growth in the third quarter, and increase large consumption in the fourth quarter. Among them, the growth category includes growth manufacturing (new energy, semiconductor materials, national defense security and technology-enabled manufacturing, etc.) and growth consumption (cosmetics, medical beauty, sportswear and new tobacco, etc.); Large consumption mainly includes e-commerce, online consumption with a high proportion (branded clothing, beauty cosmetics and daily chemicals), and optional durable consumer goods (home appliances, automobiles and 3C electronics).</p><p>On June 16,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/601995\">CICC</a>At the investment strategy meeting in the second half of 2021,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/03908\">CICC</a>Chief strategist Wang Hanfeng said that looking forward to the second half of the year, although the market is currently paying more attention to inflation or stagflation, the impact of the epidemic is not only reflected on the supply side, but also on the demand side. The recovery of China's consumer demand is currently weak. In the second half of the year, the market may gradually pay more attention to the sustainability of growth and possible policy adjustments. The market style is expected to gradually return to the \"growth\" style.</p><p>Wang Hanfeng said that considering factors such as growth, valuation, policies and overseas markets, the overall performance of the Chinese market in the second half of the year may be neutral, but the structure is relatively optimistic, and the style rotation of value outperforming growth may have come to an end; At the allocation level, it is suggested to \"light index, heavy structure, and partial growth\", and re-emphasize the general trend of \"new economy\" such as China's industrial upgrading and consumption upgrading after the market consolidation in the first half of the year.</p><p><b>Looking back at the strategy report six months ago</b></p><p><b>The brokerage strategy meeting is a stage for brokerages to show professional research and judgment. Almost every brokerage will hold it at the end of the year, in the middle of the year or even quarterly. However, the change of macro environment and the style of A-share market sometimes makes the strategies of some securities firms slightly embarrassing.</b></p><p>Looking back at 2020, the market first \"epidemic\" and then rose, and rebounded in shock. On December 31, 2020, the three major A-share stock indexes closed in the red across the board, and the Shanghai Composite Index broke through the year's high of 3,465.73 points, setting a new high since February 6, 2018. For the whole year of 2020, the Shanghai Composite Index rose by 13.87%, the Shenzhen Component Index rose by 38.73%, and the ChiNext Index rose by 64.96%. Brokerages and Public Offering of Fund have achieved good results as a whole.</p><p>Most securities firms will put their strategies for 2021 at the end of 2020 and have greater confidence in 2021.</p><p>2021, as the first year of the \"14th Five-Year Plan\" and the first year after the \"thirtieth\" of A-shares, has shown a new look in terms of system, investor structure, and the quality of the development of listed companies, and the outside world is all concerned about novel coronavirus pneumonia. We have confidence in epidemic control and firmly believe that we can \"open the world map\" again.</p><p>For example, in November 2020,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/600369\">Southwest Securities</a>At the 2021 strategy meeting, the strategy team of Southwest Securities believes that at present, it is in the relay of the third big bull market in the history of A-shares, and the economic recovery continues to be better than expected. At the end of the year, the market is getting better and better, and there are opportunities for cyclical growth.</p><p>Zhu Bin, chief strategist of Southwest Securities, said in an interview with the media that looking forward to the market in 2021, the high point of this bull market is expected to be around 4,000 points. From the perspective of investment structure, investment in the three major fields of manufacturing, real estate and infrastructure has fully recovered.</p><p>Based on the judgment of the long-term, medium-term and short-term economic cycles, as well as the forecast of A-share earnings, valuation, supply and demand,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/601688\">Huatai Securities</a>The strategy team also believes that A-shares will still be on the \"bull back\" in 2021, and the main line of top-down investment is: global reflation and manufacturing investment cycle recovery; Corresponding allocation ideas: trading \"re-inflation\", with bulk as the shield and manufacturing as the spear.</p><p>In December 2020, Dongguan Securities released its A-share investment strategy for the first half of 2021. In its strategy report, the company believes that the global economic situation is expected to usher in a gradual recovery in the first half of 2021, while the domestic economic operation has returned to normal, and domestic demand such as investment and consumption is still supported by policies. The economy will continue to pick up in 2021. It is expected that the annual GDP growth rate is about 7%, showing a pattern of first high and then stable.</p><p>The recurrence of the epidemic and the mutation of the virus are beyond the imagination of some strategic analysts. For example, last December,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/002500\">Shanxi Securities</a>The strategy team believes that the global economy is expected to emerge from the epidemic in 2021, and the establishment of an immune barrier through global vaccines will completely end the epidemic, which will recover significantly and have a positive impact on the equity market. The domestic economy continues to recover, policies have returned to normal in an orderly manner, and manufacturing investment and service consumption have become new driving forces leading the next stage of domestic economic recovery.</p>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/71d4f39c6a574e992fecb4bb520fbc93","relate_stocks":{"399001":"深证成指","399006":"创业板指","000001.SH":"上证指数"},"is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1192656485","content_text":"2021年上半年即将过去，多家券商的年中策略会正紧锣密鼓的进行。围绕下半年A股走势、投资风格和资产配置，各家券商展开了一场看不见的“唇枪舌战”。\n去年11月至今年2月中旬，大市值白马股屡创超额收益并带动市场估值上行；今年3月上旬至今，不少白马股市值出现大幅回调，甚至创下今年股价新低，致使不少“顶流基金经理” 濒临“神话破灭”。\n为此，围绕茅指数为代表的白马股，在年中券商策略会上也出现“打架”现象。有券商首席策略分析师认为，简单的“龙头躺赢”策略失效，配置上应该将成长性放在首位；有些券商首席策略分析师则表示，龙头公司长牛特征将越来越明显，春节以来的回调只是性价比的自我修正，仍然值得配置。\n值得一提的是，今年以来，市场风格和疫情控制形势多变，站在当下回顾半年前一些策略，走偏甚至翻车的也不少。\n茅指数龙头还值得拥抱？\nA股投资者对去年11月以来，各个行业的龙头公司市值大涨记忆犹新，并亲切冠以“行业+茅”称呼。\n不过，“龙头躺赢”的策略在今年3月以来逐渐失效，如“地产茅”万科A、“保险茅”中国平安、“水泥茅”海螺水泥，以及“家电茅”格力电器等股价纷纷回调，一些股价甚至还创出一段时间来的新低。\n6月22日，安信证券首席分析师陈果在年中策略会上表示，当前市场主线正在生变。3月以来部分核心赛道二线龙头表现优于部分传统赛道一线龙头，未来市场简单的“龙头躺赢”策略失效，配置逻辑上成长性将居首位，市场核心也将回归“长赛道+高景气”。\n陈果进一步指出，近年来A股已逐步走出一批资产高速扩张、业绩快速提升、全球竞争力不断加强的硬技术实力企业。从投资角度看，后市半导体、新能源、医疗服务、军工、新材料、人工智能等行业值得重点关注。\n6月23日，海通证券在北京举办2021年中期投资策略报告会。海通证券首席经济学家荀玉根认为，A股个股及基金的分化趋势还将延续，未来我国股市两极分化的马太效应将更加显著；市值结构方面，2017年以来超大市值组持续占优。\n对于2021年下半年，荀玉根表示，守正出奇方能致胜。他进一步解释，守正出奇即以茅指数为代表的第一梯队超大市值公司仍然值得配置，但产业升级大趋势下，中大盘中的智能制造才是获取超额收益的关键。\n荀玉根认为，未来随着A股机构化、国际化趋势逐步推进，以茅指数为代表的龙头公司长牛特征将越来越明显，春节以来的回调只是性价比的自我修正。\n“出奇即中大盘性价比更高。随着经济逐渐步入正轨，以茅指数为代表的超大盘股在基本面上的相对优势不会像去年那么极致。参考美股，未来A股第二档即200-800亿的中大市值的公司有望进一步变大变强。”荀玉根称。\n配置成长股成为共识\n券商中国记者注意到，过去数年躺赢的核心资产已不便宜，且在估值和盈利方面面临震荡分化，不少券商在中期策略会中提出聚焦于成长股。\n6月中旬，兴业证券中期策略会上，兴业证券全球首席策略分析师张忆东表示，下半年国内的投资风格是以成长股为主、价值股为辅，成长和价值的剧烈分化已经收敛，价值股的相对性价比降低。\n张忆东表示，科创将引领“未来核心资产”。今年以来，外资持仓发生了较为明显的变化，科创板成为新宠。其次，科创板和创业板为代表的“未来核心资产”，具有相对性价比。中证500/沪深300的PE比值、以及创业板与沪深300的PE比值都处于历史低位。\n6月初，中信证券在中期策略会上提出，A股下半年将进入慢涨“三部曲”中的共振上行期，且四季度空间更大。预计下半年A股净流入资金规模达到2200亿元。其中人民币升值预期下，外资流入或继续超预期。\n中信证券表示，配置上，建议淡化周期思维，三季度聚焦成长，四季度增配大消费。其中，成长类包括成长类制造（新能源、半导体材料、国防安全以及科技赋能制造等）和成长型消费（化妆品、医美、运动服饰及新型烟草等）；大消费主要包括电商、线上占比高的消费（品牌服饰、美妆日化），以及可选耐用消费品（家电、汽车和3C电子）等。\n6月16日，中金公司2021下半年投资策略会上，中金公司首席策略师王汉锋表示，展望下半年，虽然市场当前较为关注通胀或滞胀，但疫情冲击不仅体现在供给侧，也体现在需求侧。中国消费需求复苏目前偏弱，下半年市场可能逐步更加关注增长的持续性，以及可能的政策调整，市场风格上有望逐步重回偏“成长”风格。\n王汉锋表示，综合增长、估值、政策及海外市场等因素，下半年中国市场整体表现可能偏中性，但结构上相对乐观，价值跑赢成长的风格轮动可能已经在尾声；配置层面上建议“轻指数、重结构、偏成长”，在上半年的市场盘整后重新重视中国产业升级与消费升级等“新经济”大趋势。\n回望半年前策略报告\n券商策略会是券商展示专业研判的舞台，几乎每家券商年末、年中甚至季度都会举办。不过，宏观环境和A股市场的风格的转换，有时候会令一些券商的策略略显尴尬。\n回望2020年，大盘先“疫”后扬，震荡反弹。2020年12月31日，A股三大股指全线收红，沪指突破年内高点3465.73点，创2018年2月6日以来新高。2020全年，沪指累涨13.87%，深成指累涨38.73%，创业板指累涨64.96%。券商和公募基金整体都取得不错的业绩。\n大多数券商将2021年的策略会放在2020年末，且对2021年抱有较大的信心。\n2021年作为“十四五”开局之年和A股“三十而立”后的第一年，无论在制度、投资者结构，还是上市公司发展质量上都呈现出新气象，且外界均对新冠肺炎疫情控制抱有信心，坚信能重新“打开世界地图”。\n例如，2020年11月，西南证券2021年策略会上，西南证券策略团队就认为，当前，正处于A股历史上第三次大牛市的中继，经济复苏延续比预期要好，年底行情渐入佳境，周期成长皆有机会。\n西南证券首席策略分析师朱斌接受媒体采访时表示，展望2021年市场，预计此轮大牛市的高点就是4000点左右。从投资结构上看，制造业、房地产和基建三大领域的投资全面复苏。\n基于经济长、中、短周期的判断，以及A股盈利、估值、供需的预测，华泰证券策略团队也认为，2021年A股仍在“牛背”上，自上而下投资主线为：全球再通胀和制造业投资周期回升；对应配置思路：交易“再通胀”，以大宗为盾，以制造为矛。\n2020年12月，东莞证券发布2021年上半年A股投资策略。该公司在策略报告中认为，2021年上半年全球经济形势有望迎来逐步恢复态势，而国内经济运行已经回归常态，投资、消费等内需仍受到政策支持，2021年经济将持续回暖，预计全年GDP增速为7%左右，并呈现先高后稳的格局。\n而疫情的反复、病毒的变异，也是一些策略分析师无法想象的。例如去年12月，山西证券策略团队认为，2021年全球经济有望走出疫情，通过全球疫苗建立免疫屏障彻底结束疫情，显著回暖，对权益市场影响偏正面。而国内经济延续复苏，政策有序回归常态，制造业投资、服务类消费成为引领国内经济下一阶段复苏的新动能。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"399001":0.9,"399006":0.9,"000001.SH":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":3815,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":168125845,"gmtCreate":1623967496187,"gmtModify":1703824727038,"author":{"id":"3573688531814941","authorId":"3573688531814941","name":"ccssyy","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/788037228f49cc166fdc5223f0073775","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3573688531814941","idStr":"3573688531814941"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"？","listText":"？","text":"？","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":4,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/168125845","repostId":"1111690771","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1111690771","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1623935139,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1111690771?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2021-06-17 21:05","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"Hawkish Signal! The Federal Reserve is gradually changing its face, what about the property market and stock market?","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1111690771","media":"杠杆游戏","summary":"全球瞩目，美国是否加息，何时加息？\n当地时间6月16日，美联储发布经济预测和政策声明。美联储分别上调了对2021年的美国经济及通胀预期，而一同公布的点阵图则显示，有超过半数的FOMC委员给出了提前加息","content":"<p>Global attention, whether the United States is rate hike, and when will it be rate hike?</p><p>On June 16, local time, the Federal Reserve issued an economic forecast and policy statement. The Federal Reserve raised its forecasts for the U.S. economy and inflation in 2021 respectively, and the dot plot released together showed that more than half of the FOMC members gave expectations for advance rate hike. The median forecast suggested that the Fed would rate hike 2 times before 2023.</p><p>Interest rates may rise from 0.1% to 0.6%.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d41cae1274b855b1881c45df621f92f1\" tg-width=\"650\" tg-height=\"248\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>Overall, the Fed's concerns about prices have increased, and hawkish signals are beginning to emerge. What impact will this have on China's stock market and property market? Let's talk about the leverage game according to the details of this interest rate meeting.</p><p><b>1. The hawkish turn signal deserves attention!</b></p><p>Thirteen of the 18 committee members support at least one rate hike before the end of 2023. The Federal Reserve is more confident in the U.S. economy. They believe that U.S. GDP will grow by 7.0% in 2021, compared with the forecast of 6.5% at the March meeting.</p><p>The Federal Reserve also raised its real GDP forecast for 2023 to 2.4% from the previous forecast of 2.2%. With the better recovery of the economy, price and monetary policy issues naturally come.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/66259bd1ce43d9289e0638c6cb914df7\" tg-width=\"650\" tg-height=\"257\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>Huatai Futures made a statistic, and the leverage game felt very meaningful, and thanked you.</p><p>The dot plot of the rate hike path of Fed officials shows that by the end of 2023, the Fed may rate hike twice.</p><p>The June dot plot of the FOMC (the Federal Reserve's Open Market Committee) showed that 13 of the 18 members supported at least one rate hike before the end of 2023, compared with 7 in March.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/13dc861d49dae295f65371658fe551af\" tg-width=\"528\" tg-height=\"540\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>Chart source |<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/000686\">Northeast Securities</a>(Thanks hereby)</p><p>Eleven members are expected to hold at least two rate hike by the end of 2023, and seven members are expected to start rate hike in 2022. In March, it was 4.</p><p>The median dot plot forecast in March implies that there will be no rate hike until the end of 2023.</p><p><b>2. Federal Reserve Chairman Powell generally believes that it is too early to discuss rate hike. The key is why?</b></p><p>Of course, the Federal Reserve is preparing to adjust the excess reserve rate (IOER) from 0.1% to 0.15%. That is to say, in the face of excess liquidity, the Federal Reserve is actually making appropriate moves.</p><p>However, it is very clear that it will continue to increase its holdings of at least $80 billion in Treasury Bond and at least $40 billion in mortgage-backed securities every month until substantial progress is made on the goals of full employment and price stability.</p><p>Here, the leverage game needs to be said more. What is the goal of full employment and price stability?</p><p>For example, the number of new non-farm employment in the United States in April and May was 278,000 and 559,000 respectively, both lower than expected. Compared with the pre-black swan level, the number of employed people in May still decreased by about 7.6 million.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8c8c7ecd06543dcd0ded387b77673869\" tg-width=\"832\" tg-height=\"343\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>Chart source | Northeast Securities (thanks hereby)</p><p>The Fed expects the unemployment rate to fall to 4.5% in 2021 (the same as its March forecast), and to 3.8% and 3.5% in 2022 and 2023, respectively-at this point, returning to very low levels, probably considered qualified;</p><p>At the same time, Powell believes that inflation may remain high in the coming months before it eases-the price indicator should be considered to be up to standard.</p><p>Therefore, my conclusion is that what Americans care about is the economy, simply put, employment indicators.</p><p><b>3. The normalization of U.S. monetary policy may accelerate, which deserves attention, but the stock market should be worry-free for the time being.</b></p><p>Judging from the above changes in the number of Fed members' attitudes towards rate hike, the leverage game can basically be considered that the pace of rate hike is much faster than before.</p><p>While there is no signal from rate hike yet, an early arrival is possible. At the same time, Powell is ready to discuss reducing bond purchases, and the hawks are undoubtedly revealed. Then the US dollar will be supported in the short term, and the RMB exchange rate will mainly fluctuate.</p><p>But because liquidity in China and the United States is generally loose. For example, our M2 was 227.54 trillion yuan at the end of May, a year-on-year increase of 8.3%, and the growth rate was 0.2 percentage points higher than that at the end of last month.</p><p>At the same time, no matter the central banks of China and the United States, the communication with the market is relatively full and transparent, and no one will suddenly change monetary policy.</p><p>Therefore, the stock market will not panic as a whole, and the trend downward trend will not occur.</p><p><b>4. Domestic demand is still a bit weak, and external demand supports high production boom. Real estate and investment should not be too cold at this time.</b></p><p>June 16 was a very interesting day. The United States announced some statements of their interest rate meeting, and we released a number of economic indicators.</p><p>We can see that industrial production has actually weakened slightly, and external demand is still an important support.</p><p>According to the statistics of Beijing Capital Securities, for example, the two-year average growth rate of industrial added value above designated size in May was 6.6%, a slight decrease of 0.2 percentage points from the previous value.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d083afd587e6aa1242d24c96c4ad505e\" tg-width=\"477\" tg-height=\"545\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>Chart source | Beijing Capital Securities (thanks hereby)</p><p>The compound growth rate of export delivery value has dropped significantly, echoing the sharp drop in exports in May. However, without the high growth of exports, industrial data will decline even more.</p><p>Generally speaking, external demand has peaked and fallen, and production and exports will have a slight impact in the next step.</p><p>In terms of fixed investment, it increased by 15.4% year-on-year. However, the newly started housing area has experienced negative growth for two consecutive months, and the completed area has accelerated significantly this month, turning positive to 5.0% year-on-year. Real estate investment is still supported in the short term, and there is certain pressure for a long time.</p><p>At the same time, with the strengthening of debt management, there is a high probability of fixed investment falling.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/140e47518613dba5d257d583f1f9f4ec\" tg-width=\"554\" tg-height=\"298\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>Social retail sales increased by 12.4% in May, slightly lower than market expectations of 12.8%, and the previous value was 17.7%.</p><p>Generally speaking, the leverage game believes that domestic demand is so-so and exports have peaked. Then, real estate suppression is suppression and cannot be made too ugly.</p><p><b>5. It is worth noting whether there is a liquidity inflection point in the United States in the third quarter.</b></p><p>Regardless of global housing prices, commodities, or the U.S. stock market, this round of surge in asset prices is essentially dominated by liquidity.</p><p>Now the question is, is there an inflection point in U.S. liquidity in the third quarter? As mentioned in the leverage game above, the Federal Reserve has signals of shrinking, and the excess reserve interest rate has increased slightly.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c6a294dbe7d55d78d322cf321fc22590\" tg-width=\"556\" tg-height=\"431\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>Chart source |<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/601878\">Zheshang Securities</a>(Thanks hereby)</p><p>In the third quarter, the leverage game believes that the first amplitude is small, and the second is a test. At the same time, the last round of cards played by China's central bank has proved that \"I am the mainstay\"-as long as the United States does not rate hike, the world trend of funds returning to the United States to pursue high returns should not come.</p><p>From this perspective alone, in 2021, my country's stock market will not be bearish; The property market only shows an extremely strict attitude towards speculation. As mentioned above, economic stability still needs it.</p><p>It should be noted that in the third quarter, such as July and August, the Federal Reserve began to formally discuss cutting QE, and began cutting QE at the end of 2021 or early 2022. These are basically within market expectations.</p><p>Nevertheless, this is at least a constraint on the monetary policy of any country.</p><p><b>6. Conclusion: The stock market will basically not be affected by the United States in 2021, and the property market will be dominated by me.</b>The former leverage game means, don't worry about liquidity.</p><p>What I mean by the latter is that the property market will crack down on speculation throughout 2021. However, the local trading ability of the property market is becoming more and more proficient, and it has always had its own way to ensure a certain price and sales volume.</p><p>Besides, the water hasn't decreased.</p>","source":"lsy1574902984297","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Hawkish Signal! The Federal Reserve is gradually changing its face, what about the property market and stock market?</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nHawkish Signal! The Federal Reserve is gradually changing its face, what about the property market and stock market?\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">杠杆游戏</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-06-17 21:05</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>Global attention, whether the United States is rate hike, and when will it be rate hike?</p><p>On June 16, local time, the Federal Reserve issued an economic forecast and policy statement. The Federal Reserve raised its forecasts for the U.S. economy and inflation in 2021 respectively, and the dot plot released together showed that more than half of the FOMC members gave expectations for advance rate hike. The median forecast suggested that the Fed would rate hike 2 times before 2023.</p><p>Interest rates may rise from 0.1% to 0.6%.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d41cae1274b855b1881c45df621f92f1\" tg-width=\"650\" tg-height=\"248\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>Overall, the Fed's concerns about prices have increased, and hawkish signals are beginning to emerge. What impact will this have on China's stock market and property market? Let's talk about the leverage game according to the details of this interest rate meeting.</p><p><b>1. The hawkish turn signal deserves attention!</b></p><p>Thirteen of the 18 committee members support at least one rate hike before the end of 2023. The Federal Reserve is more confident in the U.S. economy. They believe that U.S. GDP will grow by 7.0% in 2021, compared with the forecast of 6.5% at the March meeting.</p><p>The Federal Reserve also raised its real GDP forecast for 2023 to 2.4% from the previous forecast of 2.2%. With the better recovery of the economy, price and monetary policy issues naturally come.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/66259bd1ce43d9289e0638c6cb914df7\" tg-width=\"650\" tg-height=\"257\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>Huatai Futures made a statistic, and the leverage game felt very meaningful, and thanked you.</p><p>The dot plot of the rate hike path of Fed officials shows that by the end of 2023, the Fed may rate hike twice.</p><p>The June dot plot of the FOMC (the Federal Reserve's Open Market Committee) showed that 13 of the 18 members supported at least one rate hike before the end of 2023, compared with 7 in March.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/13dc861d49dae295f65371658fe551af\" tg-width=\"528\" tg-height=\"540\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>Chart source |<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/000686\">Northeast Securities</a>(Thanks hereby)</p><p>Eleven members are expected to hold at least two rate hike by the end of 2023, and seven members are expected to start rate hike in 2022. In March, it was 4.</p><p>The median dot plot forecast in March implies that there will be no rate hike until the end of 2023.</p><p><b>2. Federal Reserve Chairman Powell generally believes that it is too early to discuss rate hike. The key is why?</b></p><p>Of course, the Federal Reserve is preparing to adjust the excess reserve rate (IOER) from 0.1% to 0.15%. That is to say, in the face of excess liquidity, the Federal Reserve is actually making appropriate moves.</p><p>However, it is very clear that it will continue to increase its holdings of at least $80 billion in Treasury Bond and at least $40 billion in mortgage-backed securities every month until substantial progress is made on the goals of full employment and price stability.</p><p>Here, the leverage game needs to be said more. What is the goal of full employment and price stability?</p><p>For example, the number of new non-farm employment in the United States in April and May was 278,000 and 559,000 respectively, both lower than expected. Compared with the pre-black swan level, the number of employed people in May still decreased by about 7.6 million.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8c8c7ecd06543dcd0ded387b77673869\" tg-width=\"832\" tg-height=\"343\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>Chart source | Northeast Securities (thanks hereby)</p><p>The Fed expects the unemployment rate to fall to 4.5% in 2021 (the same as its March forecast), and to 3.8% and 3.5% in 2022 and 2023, respectively-at this point, returning to very low levels, probably considered qualified;</p><p>At the same time, Powell believes that inflation may remain high in the coming months before it eases-the price indicator should be considered to be up to standard.</p><p>Therefore, my conclusion is that what Americans care about is the economy, simply put, employment indicators.</p><p><b>3. The normalization of U.S. monetary policy may accelerate, which deserves attention, but the stock market should be worry-free for the time being.</b></p><p>Judging from the above changes in the number of Fed members' attitudes towards rate hike, the leverage game can basically be considered that the pace of rate hike is much faster than before.</p><p>While there is no signal from rate hike yet, an early arrival is possible. At the same time, Powell is ready to discuss reducing bond purchases, and the hawks are undoubtedly revealed. Then the US dollar will be supported in the short term, and the RMB exchange rate will mainly fluctuate.</p><p>But because liquidity in China and the United States is generally loose. For example, our M2 was 227.54 trillion yuan at the end of May, a year-on-year increase of 8.3%, and the growth rate was 0.2 percentage points higher than that at the end of last month.</p><p>At the same time, no matter the central banks of China and the United States, the communication with the market is relatively full and transparent, and no one will suddenly change monetary policy.</p><p>Therefore, the stock market will not panic as a whole, and the trend downward trend will not occur.</p><p><b>4. Domestic demand is still a bit weak, and external demand supports high production boom. Real estate and investment should not be too cold at this time.</b></p><p>June 16 was a very interesting day. The United States announced some statements of their interest rate meeting, and we released a number of economic indicators.</p><p>We can see that industrial production has actually weakened slightly, and external demand is still an important support.</p><p>According to the statistics of Beijing Capital Securities, for example, the two-year average growth rate of industrial added value above designated size in May was 6.6%, a slight decrease of 0.2 percentage points from the previous value.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d083afd587e6aa1242d24c96c4ad505e\" tg-width=\"477\" tg-height=\"545\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>Chart source | Beijing Capital Securities (thanks hereby)</p><p>The compound growth rate of export delivery value has dropped significantly, echoing the sharp drop in exports in May. However, without the high growth of exports, industrial data will decline even more.</p><p>Generally speaking, external demand has peaked and fallen, and production and exports will have a slight impact in the next step.</p><p>In terms of fixed investment, it increased by 15.4% year-on-year. However, the newly started housing area has experienced negative growth for two consecutive months, and the completed area has accelerated significantly this month, turning positive to 5.0% year-on-year. Real estate investment is still supported in the short term, and there is certain pressure for a long time.</p><p>At the same time, with the strengthening of debt management, there is a high probability of fixed investment falling.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/140e47518613dba5d257d583f1f9f4ec\" tg-width=\"554\" tg-height=\"298\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>Social retail sales increased by 12.4% in May, slightly lower than market expectations of 12.8%, and the previous value was 17.7%.</p><p>Generally speaking, the leverage game believes that domestic demand is so-so and exports have peaked. Then, real estate suppression is suppression and cannot be made too ugly.</p><p><b>5. It is worth noting whether there is a liquidity inflection point in the United States in the third quarter.</b></p><p>Regardless of global housing prices, commodities, or the U.S. stock market, this round of surge in asset prices is essentially dominated by liquidity.</p><p>Now the question is, is there an inflection point in U.S. liquidity in the third quarter? As mentioned in the leverage game above, the Federal Reserve has signals of shrinking, and the excess reserve interest rate has increased slightly.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c6a294dbe7d55d78d322cf321fc22590\" tg-width=\"556\" tg-height=\"431\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>Chart source |<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/601878\">Zheshang Securities</a>(Thanks hereby)</p><p>In the third quarter, the leverage game believes that the first amplitude is small, and the second is a test. At the same time, the last round of cards played by China's central bank has proved that \"I am the mainstay\"-as long as the United States does not rate hike, the world trend of funds returning to the United States to pursue high returns should not come.</p><p>From this perspective alone, in 2021, my country's stock market will not be bearish; The property market only shows an extremely strict attitude towards speculation. As mentioned above, economic stability still needs it.</p><p>It should be noted that in the third quarter, such as July and August, the Federal Reserve began to formally discuss cutting QE, and began cutting QE at the end of 2021 or early 2022. These are basically within market expectations.</p><p>Nevertheless, this is at least a constraint on the monetary policy of any country.</p><p><b>6. Conclusion: The stock market will basically not be affected by the United States in 2021, and the property market will be dominated by me.</b>The former leverage game means, don't worry about liquidity.</p><p>What I mean by the latter is that the property market will crack down on speculation throughout 2021. However, the local trading ability of the property market is becoming more and more proficient, and it has always had its own way to ensure a certain price and sales volume.</p><p>Besides, the water hasn't decreased.</p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> source：<a href=\"https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s/yTYYzzbQ08ymsKDOuBB5dw\">杠杆游戏</a></p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f09c44f289c2f0d40610768fe6661fab","relate_stocks":{"513500":"标普500ETF","OEF":"标普100指数ETF-iShares",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite","SDOW":"三倍做空道指30ETF-ProShares","PSQ":"做空纳斯达克100指数ETF-ProShares","TQQQ":"纳指三倍做多ETF","QQQ":"纳指100ETF","QLD":"2倍做多纳斯达克100指数ETF-ProShares",".DJI":"道琼斯","UDOW":"三倍做多道指30ETF-ProShares","SPY":"标普500ETF","DOG":"道指ETF-ProShares做空","QID":"两倍做空纳斯达克指数ETF-ProShares","OEX":"标普100","SDS":"两倍做空标普500 ETF-ProShares","DJX":"1/100道琼斯","IVV":"标普500ETF-iShares"},"source_url":"https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s/yTYYzzbQ08ymsKDOuBB5dw","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1111690771","content_text":"全球瞩目，美国是否加息，何时加息？\n当地时间6月16日，美联储发布经济预测和政策声明。美联储分别上调了对2021年的美国经济及通胀预期，而一同公布的点阵图则显示，有超过半数的FOMC委员给出了提前加息的预期，中位数预测暗示，美联储将在2023年前加息2次。\n利率或从0.1%升至0.6%。\n\n总体来说，美联储对物价的担忧提高，鹰派信号初现。这对我国股市、楼市会有什么影响，杠杆游戏根据此次议息会议的细节，展开谈一谈。\n1、鹰派转向信号值得重视！\n18位委员中有13人支持在2023年底前，至少加息1次。美联储对美国经济比较有信心，他们认为2021年美国GDP将增长7.0%，而3月份会议的预测为6.5%。\n美联储还将2023年的实际GDP预测，从之前预期的2.2%上调至2.4%。伴随经济的较好复苏，物价和货币政策问题自然来了。\n\n华泰期货做了一个统计，杠杆游戏觉得非常有意义，并致谢。\n美联储官员的加息路径点阵图显示，到2023年底，美联储或许将加息2次。\nFOMC（美联储的公开市场委员会）6月点阵图显示，18 位委员中有13人支持在2023 年底前至少加息1次，而3月为7位。\n\n图表来源|东北证券（特此感谢）\n11位委员预计到2023年底至少加息2次，7名委员预计在2022年开始加息。3月为4位。\n而3月份的点阵图中位数预测值暗示，到2023年底前不会加息。\n2、美联储主席鲍威尔总体认为，现在讨论加息还为时过早，关键是为什么？\n当然，美联储准备将超额准备金利率（IOER）从0.1%，调整至0.15%，也就是说，面对流动性过剩，美联储其实也在适当出手。\n不过说得很清楚，将继续每月增持至少800亿美元的国债，以及至少400亿美元的住房抵押贷款支持证券，直到充分就业和物价稳定目标取得实质性进展。\n这里杠杆游戏要多一句嘴，什么算充分就业和物价稳定目标？\n比如美国4月、5月新增非农就业人口分别为27.8万和55.9万，均低于预期。与黑天鹅前水平相比，5月就业人数依然减少了约760万。\n\n图表来源|东北证券（特此感谢）\n美联储预计2021年失业率将降至4.5%（与3月的预测持平），2022年和2023年失业率将分别降至3.8%和3.5%——到此，回到非常低的水平，大概算是合格；\n同时鲍威尔认为通货膨胀可能在未来几个月继续居高不下，然后才会有所缓和——物价指标应该算达标。\n所以，我的结论就是，美国人在乎的是经济，简单说就是就业指标。\n3、美国货币政策正常化可能加快，值得重视，但股市应该暂时无忧。\n从上文美联储委员对加息的态度人数变化看，杠杆游戏基本可以认为，加息节奏较此前大大加快。\n虽然目前还没有加息的信号，但提前到来是可能的。同时，鲍威尔已经准备讨论缩减购债，鹰派显露无疑，那么美元短期内有支撑，人民币汇率震荡为主。\n但因为中美流动性总体宽松。如我们的M2，5月末227.54万亿元，同比增长8.3%，增速比上月末高0.2个百分点。\n同时无论中美央行，与市场的沟通都较为充分、透明，谁都不会货币政策突然转向。\n所以股市总体不会恐慌，趋势性下跌不会出现。\n4、内需还是有点弱，外需支撑生产高景气，房地产和投资这个时候不能太凉。\n6月16日是很有意思的一天，美国通报他们的议息会议部分声明，我们发布了多项经济指标。\n我们可以看，工业生产其实略走弱，外需仍是重要支撑。\n首创证券统计发现，比如5月规上工业增加值两年平均增速为6.6%，较前值略降0.2个百分点。\n\n图表来源|首创证券（特此感谢）\n出口交货值复合增速有较大回落，与5月出口大幅回落相呼应，但如果没有出口的高增长，工业数据会下滑更多。\n总体来说，外需见顶回落，生产和出口下一步略有影响是一定的。\n而固投方面，同比增长15.4%。但房屋新开工面积连续两个月负增长，竣工面积本月大幅提速，同比转正为5.0%，短期内房地产投资仍有支撑，长期存在一定的压力。\n同时债务管理的加强，固定投资的回落大概率。\n\n5月社零销售增长12.4%，小幅低于市场预期的12.8%，前值为17.7%。\n总的来说，杠杆游戏认为，内需马马虎虎，出口见顶，那么，房地产打压归打压，不能搞得太难看。\n5、三季度美国是否有流动性拐点，值得注意。\n无论全球房价，还是大宗商品，以及美国股市，资产价格大涨本质这一轮都是流动性主导的。\n现在问题来了，三季度美国流动性是否有拐点？上文杠杆游戏写了，美联储有缩量的信号，超额准备金利率略有提高。\n\n图表来源|浙商证券（特此感谢）\n3季度杠杆游戏认为，第一幅度小，第二是个试探，同时我国央行上一轮的出牌已经证明，“以我为主”——只要美国不加息，资金回美追求高收益的世界趋势，应该不会到来。\n单这个角度说，2021年，我国股市不至于看空；楼市，只是对投机表现出异常严厉的态度，如上所述，经济的稳定还需要它。\n需要注意的是，3季度，比如7、8月，美联储始正式讨论削减QE，2021年底或2022年初开始削减QE，这些基本已在市场预期内。\n尽管如此，这对任何国家的货币政策，起码都是掣肘。\n6、结论：2021年股市基本不会受美国影响，楼市以我为主。前者杠杆游戏的意思是，不要担心流动性。\n后者我的意思是，楼市打击投机，将贯穿2021年始终。但地方对楼市的操盘能力，也是越来越纯熟，保障一定的价格和销量，从来都有自己办法。\n何况，水又没减少。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"513500":0.9,"IVV":0.9,"QID":0.9,"DOG":0.9,"MNQmain":0.9,"NQmain":0.9,"TQQQ":0.9,"SDS":0.9,"OEF":0.9,".IXIC":0.9,"ESmain":0.9,"SDOW":0.9,"PSQ":0.9,"QLD":0.9,"OEX":0.9,"SPY":0.9,"DJX":0.9,"QQQ":0.9,"UDOW":0.9,".DJI":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":3447,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":137350785,"gmtCreate":1622303831147,"gmtModify":1704182866508,"author":{"id":"3573688531814941","authorId":"3573688531814941","name":"ccssyy","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/788037228f49cc166fdc5223f0073775","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3573688531814941","idStr":"3573688531814941"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"I&nbsp;","listText":"I&nbsp;","text":"I","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/137350785","repostId":"1144873023","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1144873023","kind":"news","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"为用户提供金融资讯、行情、数据，旨在帮助投资者理解世界，做投资决策。","home_visible":1,"media_name":"老虎资讯综合","id":"102","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba"},"pubTimestamp":1622244373,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1144873023?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2021-05-29 07:26","market":"sh","language":"zh","title":"Last night and this morning: The short squeeze market for retail investors is temporarily suspended! Biden unveils $6 trillion budget","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1144873023","media":"老虎资讯综合","summary":"摘要：美股三大股指集体收涨，芯片股多数上涨；热门中概股周五收盘涨跌不一，欢聚集团跌近10%；美国通胀指标又爆表了！4月核心PCE同比增长3.1%；二手电子产品交易平台爱回收提交赴美IPO申请>>>海外","content":"<p><b>Summary:</b>The three major U.S. stock indexes collectively closed higher, and most chip stocks rose; Popular Chinese concept stocks closed mixed on Friday.<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/YY\">Huanju Group</a>Fell nearly 10%; U.S. inflation indicators are off the charts again! Core PCE increased by 3.1% year-on-year in April; Second-hand electronic product trading platform Aihuishou submitted an IPO application in the United States > > ><b>Overseas Market</b></p><p><b>U.S. stocks close: The three major stock indexes collectively closed higher, and the S&P 500 index achieved three consecutive positives</b></p><p>On Friday, Eastern Time, all three major indexes closed slightly higher. The S&P 500 index achieved three consecutive positives. Large technology stocks generally performed poorly, and most chip stocks rose. As of the close, the Dow Jones index rose 0.19% to 34,520.09 points; The S&P 500 rose 0.08% to 4203.57 points; The Nasdaq rose 0.09% to 13,747.61 points.</p><p>All three major U.S. stock indexes recorded gains this week. This week, the Dow rose 0.9%, the S&P 500 rose 1.2%, and the Nasdaq rose 2.1%; In May, the S&P 500 rose 0.6%, the fourth consecutive month of gains. This month, the Dow rose 1.9%, while the Nasdaq fell 1.5%.</p><p><b>Popular Chinese concept stocks closed mixed on Friday<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/YY\">Huanju Group</a>Fell nearly 10%</b></p><p>Popular Chinese concept stocks closed mixed on Friday.<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MOGU\">Mushroom Street</a>Up by more than 9%, the financial report shows that the company's fourth-quarter revenue was 90.9 million yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 23.6%; Huanju Group fell nearly 10%. The financial report showed that the company's global average monthly active users (MAU) of mobile devices fell by 15.1% year-on-year in the first quarter;<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/JD\">JD.com</a>Up 1.52%,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BABA\">Alibaba</a>Up 0.57%,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BILI\">Bilibili</a>Up 3.06%,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TME\">Tencent Music</a>Up 2.14%,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NTES\">NetEase</a>Up 1.35%,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/PDD\">Pinduoduo</a>Up 4.36%,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BIDU\">Baidu</a>Up 0.75%,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/IQ\">IQiyi</a>Down 1.86%</p><p><b>U.S. WTI crude oil rose 4.3% this week, Brent crude oil rose 4.8%</b></p><p>Crude oil futures prices closed mixed on Friday. This week and this month, U.S. WTI and London Brent crude oil both recorded gains. West Texas Intermediate crude oil (WTI) futures for July delivery fell 53 cents, or 0.8%, to close at $66.32 a barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange; LONDON<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/ICE\">Intercontinental Exchange</a>Brent crude futures for July delivery rose 17 cents, or 0.2%, to settle at $69.63 a barrel. Based on the most active contracts, WTI crude oil rose 4.3% for the week and 4.3% in May. Brent crude rose 4.8% for the week and 3.5% in May.</p><p><b>Gold futures stood above the 1900 mark on Friday, up 7.8% this month</b></p><p>Gold futures prices returned to above $1,900 on Friday. Gold futures recorded gains this week and this month. Gold futures for August delivery on the New York Mercantile Exchange rose $6.80, or 0.4%, to close at $1,905.30 an ounce, the highest closing price since January 7. On the most active contract basis, gold futures prices rose 1.5% this week and 7.8% this month.</p><p><b>International macro</b></p><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/NW/2139938485\" target=\"_blank\"><b>Biden unveils $6 trillion budget package: including two signature domestic proposals</b></a></p><p>U.S. President Joe Biden submitted his budget request for fiscal year 2022 to Congress. This is his first official budget since he became president, which is very different from that of predecessor President Trump. Biden's budget includes two of his signature domestic proposals, the American Families Plan and the American Jobs Plan, neither of which has been seriously discussed by Congress.</p><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/NW/2139485125\" target=\"_blank\"><b>U.S. Treasury Department expects Biden's tax increase plan to increase taxes by $3.6 trillion over ten years</b></a></p><p>The U.S. Treasury Department released a \"Green Paper\" on Friday saying that President Biden's tax increase plan will bring in $3.6 trillion in tax revenue over the next decade. This will constitute the main source of funding for Biden's $4 trillion plan to rebuild the U.S. economy and social security net.</p><p><b>U.S. inflation indicators are off the charts again! Core PCE increased by 3.1% year-on-year in April, the highest since 1992</b></p><p>According to statistics from the U.S. Department of Commerce, the U.S. PCE price index rose by 3.6% year-on-year in April, exceeding expectations by 3.5%, a significant increase from the previous value of 2.3%, the fastest growth rate since 2008, and much higher than the Federal Reserve's official inflation target of 2%..</p><p><b>U.S. merchandise trade deficit narrows for first time this year as exports rise to record high</b></p><p>The U.S. merchandise trade deficit narrowed for the first time this year as exports soared to record levels and imports fell from record highs. Data released by the U.S. Department of Commerce on Friday showed that the trade deficit narrowed to $85.2 billion in April from $90.6 billion in the previous month. The median estimate of economists polled by Bloomberg was $92 billion.</p><p><b>Yellen called on G7 to continue to provide financial support to support central bank's exploration of digital monetary policy</b></p><p>Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen told G7 treasury ministers and central bank governors on Friday to provide further fiscal support \"to promote a strong post-pandemic and lasting recovery\" is important, the U.S. Treasury Department said in a statement.</p><p><b>Company News</b></p><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/NW/2139486356\" target=\"_blank\"><b>Retail investors' short squeeze temporarily suspended, AMC surged 38% in early trading and then closed down</b></a></p><p>AMC, which was on the cusp of a short squeeze by retail investors, rose sharply for four consecutive days. The increase once expanded to 38% in early trading on Friday, but then fell back and finally closed down 1.58%. Other retail group stocks that have been hot recently also performed weakly on Friday.<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BBRY\">Blackberry</a>And<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NOK\">Nokia</a>The closing increase was less than 2%,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/GME\">GameStop</a>It closed down 12.58%.</p><p><b><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TSLA\">Tesla</a>Voluntarily recall some Model 3 models and Model Y models</b></p><p>According to Electrek:<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TSLA\">Tesla</a>It announced that it will voluntarily recall some Model 3 models produced between December 2018 and March 2021, and some Model Y models produced between January 2020 and January 2021, to inspect brake caliper bolts.</p><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/NW/1117147021\" target=\"_blank\"><b>Second-hand electronic product trading platform Aihuishou submits IPO application in the United States</b></a></p><p>Second-hand electronic product trading platform Aihuishou submitted an IPO application in the United States and intends to list on the New York Stock Exchange under the code \"RERE\". The underwriters include<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/GS\">Goldman Sachs</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BAC\">Bank of America</a>, China Renaissance,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/601211\">Guotai Junan</a>CLSA and<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TIGR\">Tiger Securities</a>。</p><p><b>Credit Suisse RenTech Fund temporarily bans customers from redeeming some funds</b></p><p>Credit Suisse is temporarily banning clients from redeeming all cash from a fund invested with Renaissance Technologies. Investors are rushing to redeem their investments because of the heavy losses of this strategy.</p><p><b><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/HSBC\">HSBC</a>Shareholders vote to stop coal financing by 2040</b></p><p>Media quotes<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/HSBC\">HSBC</a>News from Friday's shareholder meeting reported that HSBC shareholders voted to phase out coal financing by 2040 and align the bank's lending with the climate goals of the Paris Agreement.</p><p><b>Meituan CEO Wang Xing responds to regulatory investigation: Antitrust has a positive impact on the industry</b></p><p>In the first quarter earnings conference call, Meituan CEO Wang Xing responded to recent issues such as supervision, rider well-being, and merchant rates. Regarding Meituan's acceptance of the anti-monopoly investigation, Wang Xing said that anti-monopoly supervision will have a positive impact on the entire Internet industry. At the same time, he said that Meituan has a dedicated team to cooperate with the work of the regulatory authorities, and the anti-monopoly investigation will not have an impact on Meituan's food delivery business. Great negative impact. At the same time, Wang Xing said, \"We strictly prohibit any form of choice between the two, and have established a transparent and effective reporting channel. We will continue to actively cooperate with the regulatory authorities and fully respect the independent choice of merchants.\"</p><p>----------------------------------------------------</p><p>Share good news with Tiger friends, Tiger currently supports placing orders on weekends! Pre-pending orders are a value-added service provided by Tiger for users, which can support users to place orders during non-trading periods. Currently, they support three order types: stop loss orders, stop loss limit orders, and limit orders.</p><p>In other words, users can place pending orders during market holidays, such as weekends and other holidays. The orders are saved by Tiger's trading system and automatically submitted to the exchange after the market opens.</p><p><a href=\"https://www.laohu8.com/post/131820269\" target=\"_blank\">Click for details > > ></a></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Last night and this morning: The short squeeze market for retail investors is temporarily suspended! Biden unveils $6 trillion budget</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nLast night and this morning: The short squeeze market for retail investors is temporarily suspended! Biden unveils $6 trillion budget\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/102\">\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">老虎资讯综合 </p>\n<p class=\"h-time smaller\">2021-05-29 07:26</p>\n</div>\n</a>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><b>Summary:</b>The three major U.S. stock indexes collectively closed higher, and most chip stocks rose; Popular Chinese concept stocks closed mixed on Friday.<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/YY\">Huanju Group</a>Fell nearly 10%; U.S. inflation indicators are off the charts again! Core PCE increased by 3.1% year-on-year in April; Second-hand electronic product trading platform Aihuishou submitted an IPO application in the United States > > ><b>Overseas Market</b></p><p><b>U.S. stocks close: The three major stock indexes collectively closed higher, and the S&P 500 index achieved three consecutive positives</b></p><p>On Friday, Eastern Time, all three major indexes closed slightly higher. The S&P 500 index achieved three consecutive positives. Large technology stocks generally performed poorly, and most chip stocks rose. As of the close, the Dow Jones index rose 0.19% to 34,520.09 points; The S&P 500 rose 0.08% to 4203.57 points; The Nasdaq rose 0.09% to 13,747.61 points.</p><p>All three major U.S. stock indexes recorded gains this week. This week, the Dow rose 0.9%, the S&P 500 rose 1.2%, and the Nasdaq rose 2.1%; In May, the S&P 500 rose 0.6%, the fourth consecutive month of gains. This month, the Dow rose 1.9%, while the Nasdaq fell 1.5%.</p><p><b>Popular Chinese concept stocks closed mixed on Friday<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/YY\">Huanju Group</a>Fell nearly 10%</b></p><p>Popular Chinese concept stocks closed mixed on Friday.<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MOGU\">Mushroom Street</a>Up by more than 9%, the financial report shows that the company's fourth-quarter revenue was 90.9 million yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 23.6%; Huanju Group fell nearly 10%. The financial report showed that the company's global average monthly active users (MAU) of mobile devices fell by 15.1% year-on-year in the first quarter;<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/JD\">JD.com</a>Up 1.52%,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BABA\">Alibaba</a>Up 0.57%,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BILI\">Bilibili</a>Up 3.06%,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TME\">Tencent Music</a>Up 2.14%,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NTES\">NetEase</a>Up 1.35%,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/PDD\">Pinduoduo</a>Up 4.36%,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BIDU\">Baidu</a>Up 0.75%,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/IQ\">IQiyi</a>Down 1.86%</p><p><b>U.S. WTI crude oil rose 4.3% this week, Brent crude oil rose 4.8%</b></p><p>Crude oil futures prices closed mixed on Friday. This week and this month, U.S. WTI and London Brent crude oil both recorded gains. West Texas Intermediate crude oil (WTI) futures for July delivery fell 53 cents, or 0.8%, to close at $66.32 a barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange; LONDON<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/ICE\">Intercontinental Exchange</a>Brent crude futures for July delivery rose 17 cents, or 0.2%, to settle at $69.63 a barrel. Based on the most active contracts, WTI crude oil rose 4.3% for the week and 4.3% in May. Brent crude rose 4.8% for the week and 3.5% in May.</p><p><b>Gold futures stood above the 1900 mark on Friday, up 7.8% this month</b></p><p>Gold futures prices returned to above $1,900 on Friday. Gold futures recorded gains this week and this month. Gold futures for August delivery on the New York Mercantile Exchange rose $6.80, or 0.4%, to close at $1,905.30 an ounce, the highest closing price since January 7. On the most active contract basis, gold futures prices rose 1.5% this week and 7.8% this month.</p><p><b>International macro</b></p><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/NW/2139938485\" target=\"_blank\"><b>Biden unveils $6 trillion budget package: including two signature domestic proposals</b></a></p><p>U.S. President Joe Biden submitted his budget request for fiscal year 2022 to Congress. This is his first official budget since he became president, which is very different from that of predecessor President Trump. Biden's budget includes two of his signature domestic proposals, the American Families Plan and the American Jobs Plan, neither of which has been seriously discussed by Congress.</p><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/NW/2139485125\" target=\"_blank\"><b>U.S. Treasury Department expects Biden's tax increase plan to increase taxes by $3.6 trillion over ten years</b></a></p><p>The U.S. Treasury Department released a \"Green Paper\" on Friday saying that President Biden's tax increase plan will bring in $3.6 trillion in tax revenue over the next decade. This will constitute the main source of funding for Biden's $4 trillion plan to rebuild the U.S. economy and social security net.</p><p><b>U.S. inflation indicators are off the charts again! Core PCE increased by 3.1% year-on-year in April, the highest since 1992</b></p><p>According to statistics from the U.S. Department of Commerce, the U.S. PCE price index rose by 3.6% year-on-year in April, exceeding expectations by 3.5%, a significant increase from the previous value of 2.3%, the fastest growth rate since 2008, and much higher than the Federal Reserve's official inflation target of 2%..</p><p><b>U.S. merchandise trade deficit narrows for first time this year as exports rise to record high</b></p><p>The U.S. merchandise trade deficit narrowed for the first time this year as exports soared to record levels and imports fell from record highs. Data released by the U.S. Department of Commerce on Friday showed that the trade deficit narrowed to $85.2 billion in April from $90.6 billion in the previous month. The median estimate of economists polled by Bloomberg was $92 billion.</p><p><b>Yellen called on G7 to continue to provide financial support to support central bank's exploration of digital monetary policy</b></p><p>Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen told G7 treasury ministers and central bank governors on Friday to provide further fiscal support \"to promote a strong post-pandemic and lasting recovery\" is important, the U.S. Treasury Department said in a statement.</p><p><b>Company News</b></p><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/NW/2139486356\" target=\"_blank\"><b>Retail investors' short squeeze temporarily suspended, AMC surged 38% in early trading and then closed down</b></a></p><p>AMC, which was on the cusp of a short squeeze by retail investors, rose sharply for four consecutive days. The increase once expanded to 38% in early trading on Friday, but then fell back and finally closed down 1.58%. Other retail group stocks that have been hot recently also performed weakly on Friday.<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BBRY\">Blackberry</a>And<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NOK\">Nokia</a>The closing increase was less than 2%,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/GME\">GameStop</a>It closed down 12.58%.</p><p><b><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TSLA\">Tesla</a>Voluntarily recall some Model 3 models and Model Y models</b></p><p>According to Electrek:<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TSLA\">Tesla</a>It announced that it will voluntarily recall some Model 3 models produced between December 2018 and March 2021, and some Model Y models produced between January 2020 and January 2021, to inspect brake caliper bolts.</p><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/NW/1117147021\" target=\"_blank\"><b>Second-hand electronic product trading platform Aihuishou submits IPO application in the United States</b></a></p><p>Second-hand electronic product trading platform Aihuishou submitted an IPO application in the United States and intends to list on the New York Stock Exchange under the code \"RERE\". The underwriters include<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/GS\">Goldman Sachs</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BAC\">Bank of America</a>, China Renaissance,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/601211\">Guotai Junan</a>CLSA and<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TIGR\">Tiger Securities</a>。</p><p><b>Credit Suisse RenTech Fund temporarily bans customers from redeeming some funds</b></p><p>Credit Suisse is temporarily banning clients from redeeming all cash from a fund invested with Renaissance Technologies. Investors are rushing to redeem their investments because of the heavy losses of this strategy.</p><p><b><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/HSBC\">HSBC</a>Shareholders vote to stop coal financing by 2040</b></p><p>Media quotes<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/HSBC\">HSBC</a>News from Friday's shareholder meeting reported that HSBC shareholders voted to phase out coal financing by 2040 and align the bank's lending with the climate goals of the Paris Agreement.</p><p><b>Meituan CEO Wang Xing responds to regulatory investigation: Antitrust has a positive impact on the industry</b></p><p>In the first quarter earnings conference call, Meituan CEO Wang Xing responded to recent issues such as supervision, rider well-being, and merchant rates. Regarding Meituan's acceptance of the anti-monopoly investigation, Wang Xing said that anti-monopoly supervision will have a positive impact on the entire Internet industry. At the same time, he said that Meituan has a dedicated team to cooperate with the work of the regulatory authorities, and the anti-monopoly investigation will not have an impact on Meituan's food delivery business. Great negative impact. At the same time, Wang Xing said, \"We strictly prohibit any form of choice between the two, and have established a transparent and effective reporting channel. We will continue to actively cooperate with the regulatory authorities and fully respect the independent choice of merchants.\"</p><p>----------------------------------------------------</p><p>Share good news with Tiger friends, Tiger currently supports placing orders on weekends! Pre-pending orders are a value-added service provided by Tiger for users, which can support users to place orders during non-trading periods. Currently, they support three order types: stop loss orders, stop loss limit orders, and limit orders.</p><p>In other words, users can place pending orders during market holidays, such as weekends and other holidays. The orders are saved by Tiger's trading system and automatically submitted to the exchange after the market opens.</p><p><a href=\"https://www.laohu8.com/post/131820269\" target=\"_blank\">Click for details > > ></a></p>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b23574aac95526c9e5c62ebc8dd25130","relate_stocks":{".DJI":"道琼斯",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite"},"is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1144873023","content_text":"摘要：美股三大股指集体收涨，芯片股多数上涨；热门中概股周五收盘涨跌不一，欢聚集团跌近10%；美国通胀指标又爆表了！4月核心PCE同比增长3.1%；二手电子产品交易平台爱回收提交赴美IPO申请>>>海外市场美股收盘：三大股指集体收涨 标普500指数实现三连阳美东时间周五，三大指数均小幅收涨，标普500指数实现三连阳，大型科技股普遍表现不佳，芯片股多数上涨。截至收盘，道琼斯指数涨0.19%，报34520.09点；标普500指数涨0.08%，报4203.57点；纳斯达克指数涨0.09%，报13747.61点。本周美股三大股指均录得涨幅。本周道指上涨0.9%，标普500指数上涨1.2%，纳指上涨2.1%；在5月份，标普500指数上涨0.6%，为连续第四个月上涨。本月道指上涨1.9%，纳指下跌1.5%。热门中概股周五收盘涨跌不一 欢聚集团跌近10%热门中概股周五收盘涨跌不一，蘑菇街涨超9%，财报显示该公司第四财季营收9090万元，同比下滑23.6%；欢聚集团跌近10%，财报显示该公司一季度全球移动设备平均月活用户（MAU）同比降低15.1%；京东涨1.52%，阿里巴巴涨0.57%，哔哩哔哩涨3.06%，腾讯音乐涨2.14%，网易涨1.35%，拼多多涨4.36%，百度涨0.75%，爱奇艺跌1.86%本周美国WTI原油上涨4.3% 布伦特原油涨4.8%原油期货价格周五收盘涨跌不一。在本周与本月，美国WTI与伦敦布伦特原油均录得涨幅。纽约商品交易所7月交割的西德州中质原油（WTI）期货价格下跌53美分，跌幅0.8%，收于每桶66.32美元；伦敦洲际交易所7月交割的布伦特原油期货价格上涨17美分，涨幅0.2%，收于每桶69.63美元。按照最活跃合约计算，WTI原油本周上涨4.3%，5月上涨4.3%。布伦特原油本周上涨4.8%，5月上涨3.5%。黄金期货周五站上1900关口 本月上涨7.8%黄金期货价格周五重返1900美元上方。本周及本月黄金期货均录得涨幅。纽约商品交易所8月交割的黄金期货价格上涨6.80美元，涨幅0.4%，收于每盎司1905.30美元，创1月7日以来最高收盘价。按照最活跃合约计算，黄金期货价格本周上涨1.5%，本月上涨7.8%。国际宏观拜登公布6万亿美元预算方案：包括两项标志性的国内提案美国总统拜登向国会提交了他的2022财政年度预算申请，这是他担任总统以来的首个正式预算，其与前任总统特朗普的预算有很大不同。拜登的预算包括了他的两项标志性的国内提案，美国家庭计划和美国就业计划，这两项提案都还没有得到国会的认真讨论。美国财政部预计拜登加税计划十年可增加3.6万亿美元税收美国财政部周五发布“绿皮书”称，总统拜登的加税计划将在未来十年带来3.6万亿美元税收收入。这将构成拜登4万亿美元重建美国经济和社会保障网络计划的主要资金来源。美国通胀指标又爆表了！4月核心PCE同比增长3.1%，创1992年来最高据美国商务部统计，美国4月PCE物价指数同比升3.6%，超预期升3.5%，较前值2.3%大幅提高，创2008年以来最快增速，远高于美联储的官方通胀目标2%。美国商品贸易逆差年内首次收窄 因出口升至纪录高位由于出口额飙升至创纪录水平，且进口额从历史高位回落，美国商品贸易逆差今年首次收窄。美国商务部周五发布的数据显示，4月份贸易逆差从前月的906亿美元收窄至852亿美元。彭博调查的经济学家预估中值为920亿美元。耶伦呼吁G7继续提供财政支持 支持央行数字货币政策探索美国财政部在一份声明中表示，财政部长珍妮特-耶伦（Janet Yellen）周五告诉七国集团（G7）财长和央行行长，提供进一步的财政支持“以促进疫情后的强劲和持久复苏”十分重要。公司新闻散户逼空行情暂歇 AMC早盘暴涨38%后转为收跌处在散户逼空风口浪尖的AMC在连续四日大涨之后，周五早盘涨幅一度扩大至38%，但之后回落，最终收跌1.58%。近期表现大热的其他散户抱团股周五也表现疲软，黑莓和诺基亚收盘涨幅均不足2%，游戏驿站更以下跌12.58%报收。特斯拉主动召回部分Model3车型和ModelY车型据Electrek：特斯拉宣布将主动召回2018年12月至2021年3月间生产的部分Model 3车型，以及2020年1月至2021年1月间生产的部分ModelY车型，以检查刹车卡钳螺栓。二手电子产品交易平台爱回收提交赴美IPO申请二手电子产品交易平台爱回收提交赴美IPO申请，有意按代码“RERE”在纽交所挂牌交易，承销商包括高盛、美国银行、华兴资本、国泰君安、里昂证券以及老虎证券。瑞信RenTech基金暂时禁止客户赎回部分资金瑞信正暂时禁止客户从一支与Renaissance Technologies投资的基金赎回所有现金。因该策略亏损严重，投资者正匆忙赎回投资。汇丰股东投票决定到2040年停止煤炭融资媒体援引汇丰周五股东大会的消息报道，汇丰股东投票通过到2040年期间逐步淘汰煤炭融资并使该行的贷款与《巴黎协定》的气候目标一致。美团CEO王兴回应监管调查：反垄断对行业有正向影响在一季度财报电话会议上，美团CEO王兴对于近期的监管、骑手福祉、商家费率等问题作出了回应。对于美团接受反垄断调查一事，王兴表示反垄断监管对于整个互联网行业将产生正向影响，同时表示美团有专门团队配合监管层的工作，反垄断调查不会对美团的外卖业务产生很大的负面影响。同时，王兴表示，“我们严格禁止任何形式的二选一，并建立了透明有效的举报渠道，会继续积极配合监管部门，充分尊重商家的自主选择权。”----------------------------------------------------和虎友们分享一个好消息，老虎当前支持周末下单了！预挂单是老虎为用户提供的一种增值服务，可以支持用户在非交易时间段下单，目前支持止损单、止损限价单、限价单3种订单类型。也就是说，用户可以在休市期间，比如周末等节假日进行挂单，订单由老虎的交易系统保存，待开市后自动提交到交易所。点击了解详情>>>","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{".IXIC":0.9,".DJI":0.9,".SPX":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":3022,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":132752575,"gmtCreate":1622118266397,"gmtModify":1704179765934,"author":{"id":"3573688531814941","authorId":"3573688531814941","name":"ccssyy","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/788037228f49cc166fdc5223f0073775","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3573688531814941","idStr":"3573688531814941"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"111","listText":"111","text":"111","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/132752575","repostId":"2138147059","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"2138147059","kind":"highlight","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"中国大陆领先的金融数据、信息和软件服务企业，总部位于上海陆家嘴金融中心。","home_visible":1,"media_name":"Wind万得","id":"99","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c71e30d1317b4a5cb20a41998e10ac68"},"pubTimestamp":1622097961,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/2138147059?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2021-05-27 14:46","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"The signal suggests that markets are downplaying concerns about Fed tightening this summer","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2138147059","media":"Wind万得","summary":"就在几周前，市场上还充斥着这样的猜测：在通胀飞涨的情况下，美联储几乎肯定会在6月16日的联邦公开市场委员会(FOMC)会议上开启缩减量化宽松的话题。许多业内人士猜测，如果美联储不在6会议上讨论紧缩政策","content":"<p>Just a few weeks ago, markets were rife with speculation that, amid skyrocketing inflation, the Federal Reserve would almost certainly open the topic of tapering quantitative easing at its FOMC meeting on June 16.</p><p>Many people in the industry speculate that if the Federal Reserve does not discuss tightening policy at the 6 meeting, then the annual meeting of the central bank in Jackson Hole at the end of August may show important signals, because many of the \"radical\" ideas of the Federal Reserve in the past 10 years have been elicited in the meeting.</p><p>However, this indicator indicates that market concerns have eased recently. Volatility on the 3-month 10-year implied swap option, a measure of how U.S. bond yields will move over the next three months, has been steadily declining and hit its lowest level since early March.</p><p>Notably, the next three months may cover this year's Jackson Hole Annual Conference, which previously took place in the last week of August. Judging from past experience, many central banks explained major shifts in national policies at this meeting. So earlier this month, markets were betting heavily on a hawkish correction by the Fed in Jackson Hole, with options positions targeting the more aggressive interest rate outlook of the Fed and the European Central Bank.</p><p>If the markets are right and no tapering is announced at the Jackson Hole meeting, people will be more concerned about the Fed's next window of opportunity.</p><p>To be sure, even without the Jackson Hole annual meeting without surprises, there are a host of factors that could inject new volatility into the market. According to the minutes of the meeting of the Federal Open Market Committee (fomc), many participants said that if the economic situation develops as expected, they are willing to discuss reducing the scale of bond purchases at the \"upcoming meeting\". Federal Reserve Vice Chairman Richard Clarida expressed the same view on Tuesday.</p><p>Bank of France President Francois Villeroy de Galhau also said on Wednesday that there would be no short-term stimulus adjustments, while ECB executive member Fabio Panetta said he saw no signs of persistent inflation and therefore did not allow a reduction in bond purchases.</p><p><b>Fed discusses possible'timeline 'for tightening</b></p><p>Fed officials have guaranteed plenty of warnings ahead of actual tapering, and policymakers have signaled in the minutes of their April meeting that the possibility of reduced purchases has arrived, with more information to come in the coming months.</p><p>The highlight of the Jackson Hole meeting will be a keynote address by Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell. Powell used the meeting last year to suggest a groundbreaking new policy path for the Fed's approach to inflation.</p><p>This year, Powell will focus on potentially accelerating price pressures that exceed the Fed's 2% target range and have already created some market pressure to tighten policy at least slightly to avoid future problems.</p><p>So far, the Federal Reserve has insisted on the expectation that the recent high inflation will last for several months and then disappear. Alejandra Grindal, chief international economist at Ned Davis Research, said, \"I do think the Fed will do the right thing because they are in line with our view that the upside risks to inflation are temporary.\"</p><p>Grindal expects the Fed to announce a tapering of its bond-buying program between the November Federal Open Market Committee (fomc) meeting, a timetable slightly later than other central bank observers expected, but largely in line with this year's trend. \"Then, we expect to start tapering in 2022. It will take about a year for the Fed to complete the process of tapering bond purchases. After that, we expect to see interest rates rise as early as 2023, but possibly as late as 2024.\"</p><p>Economists and most Wall Street strategists share the Fed's narrative that the inflationary pressures that drove the consumer price index (CPI) up 4.2% in April could subside once supply chain issues and the base effect since 2020 recede.</p><p>However, the market is still worried about whether the Fed can achieve a soft landing through stimulus measures, with the benchmark borrowing rate falling to near zero again, and the Fed's balance sheet expanding to nearly $8 trillion.</p><p>The last time the Fed tried to reduce its asset holdings and raise interest rates, it didn't work well. Powell said in a statement that the balance sheet reduction is in a state of \"autonomous driving.\" In 2017 and 2018, the Fed's rate hike of 25 basis points overlapped with the slowdown in economic growth, causing huge fluctuations in the market.</p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>The signal suggests that markets are downplaying concerns about Fed tightening this summer</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nThe signal suggests that markets are downplaying concerns about Fed tightening this summer\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/99\">\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/c71e30d1317b4a5cb20a41998e10ac68);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">Wind万得 </p>\n<p class=\"h-time smaller\">2021-05-27 14:46</p>\n</div>\n</a>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>Just a few weeks ago, markets were rife with speculation that, amid skyrocketing inflation, the Federal Reserve would almost certainly open the topic of tapering quantitative easing at its FOMC meeting on June 16.</p><p>Many people in the industry speculate that if the Federal Reserve does not discuss tightening policy at the 6 meeting, then the annual meeting of the central bank in Jackson Hole at the end of August may show important signals, because many of the \"radical\" ideas of the Federal Reserve in the past 10 years have been elicited in the meeting.</p><p>However, this indicator indicates that market concerns have eased recently. Volatility on the 3-month 10-year implied swap option, a measure of how U.S. bond yields will move over the next three months, has been steadily declining and hit its lowest level since early March.</p><p>Notably, the next three months may cover this year's Jackson Hole Annual Conference, which previously took place in the last week of August. Judging from past experience, many central banks explained major shifts in national policies at this meeting. So earlier this month, markets were betting heavily on a hawkish correction by the Fed in Jackson Hole, with options positions targeting the more aggressive interest rate outlook of the Fed and the European Central Bank.</p><p>If the markets are right and no tapering is announced at the Jackson Hole meeting, people will be more concerned about the Fed's next window of opportunity.</p><p>To be sure, even without the Jackson Hole annual meeting without surprises, there are a host of factors that could inject new volatility into the market. According to the minutes of the meeting of the Federal Open Market Committee (fomc), many participants said that if the economic situation develops as expected, they are willing to discuss reducing the scale of bond purchases at the \"upcoming meeting\". Federal Reserve Vice Chairman Richard Clarida expressed the same view on Tuesday.</p><p>Bank of France President Francois Villeroy de Galhau also said on Wednesday that there would be no short-term stimulus adjustments, while ECB executive member Fabio Panetta said he saw no signs of persistent inflation and therefore did not allow a reduction in bond purchases.</p><p><b>Fed discusses possible'timeline 'for tightening</b></p><p>Fed officials have guaranteed plenty of warnings ahead of actual tapering, and policymakers have signaled in the minutes of their April meeting that the possibility of reduced purchases has arrived, with more information to come in the coming months.</p><p>The highlight of the Jackson Hole meeting will be a keynote address by Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell. Powell used the meeting last year to suggest a groundbreaking new policy path for the Fed's approach to inflation.</p><p>This year, Powell will focus on potentially accelerating price pressures that exceed the Fed's 2% target range and have already created some market pressure to tighten policy at least slightly to avoid future problems.</p><p>So far, the Federal Reserve has insisted on the expectation that the recent high inflation will last for several months and then disappear. Alejandra Grindal, chief international economist at Ned Davis Research, said, \"I do think the Fed will do the right thing because they are in line with our view that the upside risks to inflation are temporary.\"</p><p>Grindal expects the Fed to announce a tapering of its bond-buying program between the November Federal Open Market Committee (fomc) meeting, a timetable slightly later than other central bank observers expected, but largely in line with this year's trend. \"Then, we expect to start tapering in 2022. It will take about a year for the Fed to complete the process of tapering bond purchases. After that, we expect to see interest rates rise as early as 2023, but possibly as late as 2024.\"</p><p>Economists and most Wall Street strategists share the Fed's narrative that the inflationary pressures that drove the consumer price index (CPI) up 4.2% in April could subside once supply chain issues and the base effect since 2020 recede.</p><p>However, the market is still worried about whether the Fed can achieve a soft landing through stimulus measures, with the benchmark borrowing rate falling to near zero again, and the Fed's balance sheet expanding to nearly $8 trillion.</p><p>The last time the Fed tried to reduce its asset holdings and raise interest rates, it didn't work well. Powell said in a statement that the balance sheet reduction is in a state of \"autonomous driving.\" In 2017 and 2018, the Fed's rate hike of 25 basis points overlapped with the slowdown in economic growth, causing huge fluctuations in the market.</p>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://img.zhitongcaijing.com/image/20210527/20210527092115_49454.png?x-oss-process=image/format,jpg/quality,Q_80","relate_stocks":{"161125":"标普500","513500":"标普500ETF","SH":"做空标普500-Proshares","SSO":"2倍做多标普500ETF-ProShares","OEX":"标普100","QLD":"2倍做多纳斯达克100指数ETF-ProShares","IVV":"标普500ETF-iShares",".DJI":"道琼斯","DXD":"两倍做空道琼30指数ETF-ProShares","SPY":"标普500ETF",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index","DDM":"2倍做多道指ETF-ProShares","OEF":"标普100指数ETF-iShares","SDOW":"三倍做空道指30ETF-ProShares","TQQQ":"纳指三倍做多ETF","DOG":"道指ETF-ProShares做空","QID":"两倍做空纳斯达克指数ETF-ProShares","SDS":"两倍做空标普500 ETF-ProShares",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite","DJX":"1/100道琼斯","SQQQ":"纳指三倍做空ETF","PSQ":"做空纳斯达克100指数ETF-ProShares","QQQ":"纳指100ETF","UDOW":"三倍做多道指30ETF-ProShares","UPRO":"三倍做多标普500ETF-ProShares","SPXU":"三倍做空标普500ETF-ProShares"},"is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2138147059","content_text":"就在几周前，市场上还充斥着这样的猜测：在通胀飞涨的情况下，美联储几乎肯定会在6月16日的联邦公开市场委员会(FOMC)会议上开启缩减量化宽松的话题。许多业内人士猜测，如果美联储不在6会议上讨论紧缩政策，那么8月底召开的杰克逊霍尔(Jackson Hole)央行年会可能会出现重要信号，因为美联储过去10年的许多“激进”想法都在该会议中引出。但这一指标却表示，市场担忧近期有所缓解。3个月10年期隐含互换期权波动率(一个用来衡量美债收益率在未来3个月如何变动的指标)一直在稳步下降，并触及3月初以来的最低水平。值得注意的是，未来三个月可能涵盖了今年的杰克逊霍尔年会，该会议往年于8月的最后一个星期召开。从过往经验来看，许多央行都在该会议上阐述国政策的重大转向。因此在本月稍早时期，市场曾大举押注美联储在杰克逊霍尔将出现强硬调整，期权头寸瞄准了美联储和欧洲央行更为激进的利率前景。如果市场是正确的，而且在杰克逊霍尔会议上没有宣布缩减购债规模，人们将更为关心美联储的下一个机会窗口。可以肯定的是，即使没有杰克逊霍尔年会上没有出现意外，也有一系列因素可能给市场注入新的波动性。美国联邦公开市场委员会(fomc)会议纪要显示，多位与会者表示，如果经济形势如预期发展，他们愿意在\"即将召开的会议\"上讨论缩减购债规模。美联储副主席克拉里达(Richard Clarida)周二也表达了同样的观点。法国央行(Bank of France)行长德加劳(Francois Villeroy de Galhau)周三也表示，短期内不会对刺激措施进行调整，而欧洲央行执委会成员帕内塔(Fabio Panetta)则表示，他没有看到持续通胀的迹象，因此不允许减少债券购买。美联储讨论紧缩的可能“时间表”美联储官员已经保证在实际缩减之前会发出大量警告，政策制定者在4月会议纪要上已发出信号，表明购买量减少的可能性已经到来，未来几个月还将有更多信息出台。杰克逊霍尔会议的亮点将是美联储主席杰罗姆·鲍威尔(Jerome Powell)的主题演讲。鲍威尔去年利用这次会议为美联储处理通胀问题的方式提出了一条开创性的新政策路径。今年，鲍威尔将关注可能加速的价格压力，这些压力超过了美联储2%的目标区间，并已造成一些市场压力，迫使其至少稍微收紧政策，以避免未来出现问题。美联储迄今为止都在坚持这样一种预期：即近期较高的通货膨胀将会持续数月，随后消失。Ned Davis Research首席国际经济学家Alejandra Grindal表示，\"我确实认为美联储会采取正确的措施，因为他们符合我们的看法，即通胀上行风险是暂时的。\"Grindal预计，美联储将在11月联邦公开市场委员会(fomc)会议之间宣布缩减购债计划，这一时间表比其他央行观察人士的预期稍晚一些，但基本上与今年的走势一致。“然后，我们预计将在2022年开始缩减。美联储将需要大约一年的时间来完成缩减购债的过程。在那之后，我们预计最早在2023年看到利率上升，但可能最晚到2024年。”经济学家和大多数华尔街策略师都认同美联储的说法，即一旦供应链问题和2020年以来的基数效应消退，推动4月份消费者价格指数(CPI)上涨4.2%的通胀压力可能会消退。不过，市场仍担心美联储能否通过刺激措施实现软着陆，指标借款利率再度降至接近零水准，且美联储资产负债表扩张至近8万亿美元。上次美联储试图减少资产持有并提高利率时，效果并不理想。鲍威尔在声明中称，资产负债表缩减处于“自动驾驶”状态。而在2017年和2018年，美联储加息25个基点与经济增速放缓相重叠，引起了市场的巨大波动。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"161125":0.9,"513500":0.9,"PSQ":0.9,"DDM":0.9,"UPRO":0.9,"QID":0.9,".SPX":0.9,"ESmain":0.9,"DXD":0.9,"SH":0.9,"DJX":0.9,"OEX":0.9,"SDS":0.9,"OEF":0.9,".DJI":0.9,"UDOW":0.9,"TQQQ":0.9,"MNQmain":0.9,"SDOW":0.9,"QQQ":0.9,"SPXU":0.9,"DOG":0.9,"NQmain":0.9,"SSO":0.9,"QLD":0.9,"IVV":0.9,"SQQQ":0.9,".IXIC":0.9,"SPY":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2570,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":132073694,"gmtCreate":1622050102018,"gmtModify":1704178561059,"author":{"id":"3573688531814941","authorId":"3573688531814941","name":"ccssyy","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/788037228f49cc166fdc5223f0073775","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3573688531814941","idStr":"3573688531814941"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Hi&nbsp;","listText":"Hi&nbsp;","text":"Hi","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/132073694","repostId":"2138519408","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"2138519408","kind":"highlight","pubTimestamp":1622011111,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/2138519408?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2021-05-26 14:38","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"Three major factors indicate that the \"water reverse period\" of technology stocks is still not over","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2138519408","media":"Wind资讯","summary":"随着市场对通胀的担忧有所消化，纳斯达克指数自5月19日以来反弹。但分析师表示，未来价格的波动因素、科技股当前估值及资金流向均表明，当前美股科技公司的回调尚未结束。\n4月29日，纳斯达克综合指数触及14","content":"<p>The Nasdaq has rebounded since May 19 as the market priced in inflation concerns. However, analysts said that future price fluctuations, current valuations of technology stocks and capital flows all indicate that the current correction of U.S. technology companies is not over yet.</p><p>On April 29, the Nasdaq Composite Index hit a record high of 14,211 points. Since then, the index has pulled back close to 3%. While the index's gain of more than 1.5% on Monday may reassure some investors, there are still challenges to the macro drivers of tech stocks that have led the market over the past 10 years.</p><p>RBC strategist Lori Calvasina said: \"We don't see anything wrong with the fundamentals of the tech space, but we think this is an overheld, overvalued part of the market, and it's a wrong macro backdrop for this part of the market right now.\"</p><p>The current backdrop for markets is that growth and inflation are accelerating as economies reopen after a pandemic-induced shock. As a result, sectors and investment styles that benefit more from accelerated GDP growth are preferred compared to sectors and investment styles that can gain growth in other environments.</p><p>Led by Parag Thatte<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/DB\">Deutsche Bank</a>Investors continue to put money into stocks and fixed income products seen as inflation winners, such as TIPS, energy, materials and financials, according to a report from strategists on Friday.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f3a6d3d53b8204d51b0cd1ebdb3c8fb7\" tg-width=\"796\" tg-height=\"691\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>Energy, materials, and financials also performed well in cyclical trading, value trading, and reopening trading. Commodity prices have soared, and so have expectations for infrastructure. Higher economic growth combined with higher interest rates has injected life into the financial system.</p><p>The money coming into this space comes from investors who are reducing tech deals. Calvasina said: \"We think inflationary pressures are already there and the technology sector is one of the biggest sources of funding to return to reflation... so we don't think it's the best time to return to this space yet.\"</p><p>In a report published last week, Calvasina and her team delved into the shift in investor style from different perspectives, trying to explore whether the pullback at Big Tech has been sufficient. And several reasons indicate that the current correction of technology companies is not over yet.</p><p>Calvasina noted that the current valuation of technology stocks is still on the high side relative to the rest of the market and the historical valuation of technology stocks. As we mentioned above, inflows have not been encouraging, with inflows to tech ETFs flat this year.</p><p><b>Economic data disappoints markets</b></p><p>The consumer confidence index fell short of expectations in April, and the Conference Board's overall confidence index fell more than expected last month. The Conference Board noted that the short-term income outlook is, at least in part, pressured by inflation concerns. A separate report released Tuesday morning showed home prices rose the most in 15 years in March, highlighting a mismatch between supply and demand in more critical areas of the economy that is pushing up home prices.</p><p>However, some members of the US Federal Open Market Committee (fomc) suggested that market participants may not need to worry that rising prices will lead to recent changes in monetary policy in the short term. St. Louis Federal Reserve Bank President James Bullard said on Monday<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/YHOO\">Yahoo!</a>Finance said he believes the rise in inflation is \"mostly temporary\" and that the Fed has \"not yet reached\" when discussing tapering asset purchases.</p><p>Kansas City Fed Chairman Ester George said in a separate commentary that she didn't want the Fed to \"rely too much on historical relationships and dynamics in judging the inflation outlook.\" Federal Reserve officials have recently made a series of speeches downplaying the need for short-term monetary policy measures that could dampen market gains.</p><p>While the last two days of trading have given investors at least a brief respite following last week's stock market sell-off, some strategists remain cautious about stocks given that inflation concerns remain high.</p><p>Shawn Cruz, senior market strategist at TD Ameritrade, told Yahoo Finance on Monday, \"Everyone knows now that they should be worried about inflationary pressures and the impact that this could have on monetary policy or corporate profitability.\" \"If they decide to keep rising input costs on the balance sheet, that's fine, at least on the consumer side, we won't see inflation rising, but when earnings come out (in the second quarter), we may see margins rising.\"</p><p>Others have also pointed out that the latest technology-led progress may be short-lived. Calvasina said: \"We still think inflationary pressures are there, and people are moving money away from technology stocks to other sectors, such as financials, energy stocks and materials stocks. We don't think these inflationary pressures will ease anytime soon.\"</p>","source":"wind","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Three major factors indicate that the \"water reverse period\" of technology stocks is still not over</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nThree major factors indicate that the \"water reverse period\" of technology stocks is still not over\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">Wind资讯</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-05-26 14:38</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>The Nasdaq has rebounded since May 19 as the market priced in inflation concerns. However, analysts said that future price fluctuations, current valuations of technology stocks and capital flows all indicate that the current correction of U.S. technology companies is not over yet.</p><p>On April 29, the Nasdaq Composite Index hit a record high of 14,211 points. Since then, the index has pulled back close to 3%. While the index's gain of more than 1.5% on Monday may reassure some investors, there are still challenges to the macro drivers of tech stocks that have led the market over the past 10 years.</p><p>RBC strategist Lori Calvasina said: \"We don't see anything wrong with the fundamentals of the tech space, but we think this is an overheld, overvalued part of the market, and it's a wrong macro backdrop for this part of the market right now.\"</p><p>The current backdrop for markets is that growth and inflation are accelerating as economies reopen after a pandemic-induced shock. As a result, sectors and investment styles that benefit more from accelerated GDP growth are preferred compared to sectors and investment styles that can gain growth in other environments.</p><p>Led by Parag Thatte<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/DB\">Deutsche Bank</a>Investors continue to put money into stocks and fixed income products seen as inflation winners, such as TIPS, energy, materials and financials, according to a report from strategists on Friday.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f3a6d3d53b8204d51b0cd1ebdb3c8fb7\" tg-width=\"796\" tg-height=\"691\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>Energy, materials, and financials also performed well in cyclical trading, value trading, and reopening trading. Commodity prices have soared, and so have expectations for infrastructure. Higher economic growth combined with higher interest rates has injected life into the financial system.</p><p>The money coming into this space comes from investors who are reducing tech deals. Calvasina said: \"We think inflationary pressures are already there and the technology sector is one of the biggest sources of funding to return to reflation... so we don't think it's the best time to return to this space yet.\"</p><p>In a report published last week, Calvasina and her team delved into the shift in investor style from different perspectives, trying to explore whether the pullback at Big Tech has been sufficient. And several reasons indicate that the current correction of technology companies is not over yet.</p><p>Calvasina noted that the current valuation of technology stocks is still on the high side relative to the rest of the market and the historical valuation of technology stocks. As we mentioned above, inflows have not been encouraging, with inflows to tech ETFs flat this year.</p><p><b>Economic data disappoints markets</b></p><p>The consumer confidence index fell short of expectations in April, and the Conference Board's overall confidence index fell more than expected last month. The Conference Board noted that the short-term income outlook is, at least in part, pressured by inflation concerns. A separate report released Tuesday morning showed home prices rose the most in 15 years in March, highlighting a mismatch between supply and demand in more critical areas of the economy that is pushing up home prices.</p><p>However, some members of the US Federal Open Market Committee (fomc) suggested that market participants may not need to worry that rising prices will lead to recent changes in monetary policy in the short term. St. Louis Federal Reserve Bank President James Bullard said on Monday<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/YHOO\">Yahoo!</a>Finance said he believes the rise in inflation is \"mostly temporary\" and that the Fed has \"not yet reached\" when discussing tapering asset purchases.</p><p>Kansas City Fed Chairman Ester George said in a separate commentary that she didn't want the Fed to \"rely too much on historical relationships and dynamics in judging the inflation outlook.\" Federal Reserve officials have recently made a series of speeches downplaying the need for short-term monetary policy measures that could dampen market gains.</p><p>While the last two days of trading have given investors at least a brief respite following last week's stock market sell-off, some strategists remain cautious about stocks given that inflation concerns remain high.</p><p>Shawn Cruz, senior market strategist at TD Ameritrade, told Yahoo Finance on Monday, \"Everyone knows now that they should be worried about inflationary pressures and the impact that this could have on monetary policy or corporate profitability.\" \"If they decide to keep rising input costs on the balance sheet, that's fine, at least on the consumer side, we won't see inflation rising, but when earnings come out (in the second quarter), we may see margins rising.\"</p><p>Others have also pointed out that the latest technology-led progress may be short-lived. Calvasina said: \"We still think inflationary pressures are there, and people are moving money away from technology stocks to other sectors, such as financials, energy stocks and materials stocks. We don't think these inflationary pressures will ease anytime soon.\"</p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> source：<a href=\"http://www.zhitongcaijing.com/content/detail/481817.html\">Wind资讯</a></p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9d770a193c6a88684d0203fd2ec91e4a","relate_stocks":{".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite"},"source_url":"http://www.zhitongcaijing.com/content/detail/481817.html","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2138519408","content_text":"随着市场对通胀的担忧有所消化，纳斯达克指数自5月19日以来反弹。但分析师表示，未来价格的波动因素、科技股当前估值及资金流向均表明，当前美股科技公司的回调尚未结束。\n4月29日，纳斯达克综合指数触及14211点的纪录高点。自那以来，该指数回调已接近3%。尽管该指数周一超过1.5%的涨幅可能会让一些投资者放心，但过去10年引领市场的科技股的宏观驱动力仍面临挑战。\nRBC策略师Lori Calvasina表示：“我们认为科技领域的基本面没有任何问题，但我们认为，这是市场上被过度持有、估值过高的一部分，目前对这部分市场来说，这是一个错误的宏观背景。”\n当前市场的背景是，随着经济在一场疫情引发的冲击后重新开放，增长和通胀正在加速。因此，与能够在其他环境中获得增长的领域和投资风格相比，从GDP加速增长中获益更多的行业和投资风格更受青睐。\n以Parag Thatte为首的德意志银行策略师上周五发布报告显示，投资者继续将资金投入被视为通胀赢家的股票和固定收益产品，如TIPS、能源、材料和金融类股。\n\n能源、材料和金融类股在周期性交易、价值交易和重新开放交易中也有很好的表现。大宗商品价格飙升，对基础设施的期望也在上升。更高的经济增长与更高的利率相结合，为金融体系注入了活力。\n进入这一领域的资金来自于减少科技交易的投资者。Calvasina称：\"我们认为通胀压力已经存在，科技行业是重返通货再膨胀的最大资金来源之一……所以我们认为现在还不是回到这个领域的最佳时机。”\n在上周发表的一份报告中，Calvasina和她的团队从不同的角度深入研究了投资者风格的转变，试图探索大型科技公司的回调是否已经充分。而几大原因表明，目前科技公司的回调尚未结束。\nCalvasina指出，相对于市场其他部分和科技股的历史估值，科技股当前的估值仍然偏高。正如我们上面提到的，资金流入情况并不令人鼓舞，今年科技ETF的资金流入持平。\n经济数据令市场失望\n4月份消费者信心指数低于预期，美国经济谘商会(Conference Board)上月的整体信心指数跌幅超过预期。美国经济谘商会指出，至少在一定程度上，短期收入前景受到通胀担忧的压力。周二上午公布的另一份报告显示，3月份房价创下15年来的最大涨幅，突显出经济中更多关键领域的供需不匹配推高了房价。\n不过，美国联邦公开市场委员会(fomc)部分成员暗示，市场人士可能不需要担心物价上涨会在短期内促成货币政策的近期变动。圣路易斯联邦储备银行总裁布拉德(James Bullard)周一对雅虎财经表示，他认为通胀上升\"大多是暂时的\"，而美联储在讨论缩减资产购买规模时\"还没有达到\"。\n堪萨斯城联邦储备银行主席埃斯特•乔治在另一篇评论中表示，她不希望美联储\"在判断通胀前景时过度依赖历史关系和动态\"。美联储官员最近发表了一系列讲话，淡化了采取短期货币政策措施的必要性，这些措施可能会抑制市场涨势。\n尽管在上周的股市抛售之后，过去两天的交易给投资者提供了至少短暂的喘息机会，但鉴于对通胀的担忧仍居高不下，一些策略师仍对股市持谨慎态度。\nTD Ameritrade高级市场策略师Shawn Cruz周一对雅虎财经表示，\"现在所有人都知道，他们应该担心通胀压力，以及这可能对货币政策或企业盈利能力造成的影响。\"“如果他们决定将不断上升的投入成本保留在资产负债表上，那很好，至少在消费者方面，我们不会看到通胀上升，但(第二季度)盈利出来时，我们可能会看到利润率上升。”\n其他人也指出，最新的技术引领的进步可能是短暂的。Calvasina表示：“我们仍认为通胀压力存在，人们将资金从科技股移至其他板块，如金融股、能源股和材料股。我们不认为这些通胀压力会在短期内减轻。”","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{".IXIC":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2928,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":108967005,"gmtCreate":1619994048107,"gmtModify":1704336949715,"author":{"id":"3573688531814941","authorId":"3573688531814941","name":"ccssyy","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/788037228f49cc166fdc5223f0073775","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3573688531814941","idStr":"3573688531814941"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"666","listText":"666","text":"666","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/108967005","repostId":"2132567538","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"2132567538","kind":"highlight","pubTimestamp":1619941518,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/2132567538?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2021-05-02 15:45","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"Is the GDP of the United States strong or weak in the first quarter?","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2132567538","media":"智通财经网","summary":"本文来自“申万宏源宏观”。摘要一、周观点：美国一季度GDP究竟是偏强还是偏弱?21Q1美国GDP同比0.4%，略低于市场预期。美国21Q1  GDP实际同比0.4%，疫情以来首次同比转正，环比1.6%","content":"<p><b>This article comes from \"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/000166\">Shenwan Hongyuan</a>Macro \".</b></p><p>SUMMARY</p><p><b>1. Zhou's point of view: Is the GDP of the United States strong or weak in the first quarter?</b></p><p><b>U.S. GDP in 21Q1 was 0.4% year-on-year, slightly lower than market expectations.</b>The actual 21Q1 GDP of the United States was 0.4% year-on-year, turning positive year-on-year for the first time since the epidemic, and 1.6% month-on-month. The main contributing factors are commodity consumption, service consumption, and non-residential investment, showing the rapid recovery of the U.S. economy under the improvement of the epidemic and fiscal subsidies. However, the main drag items are changes in private inventories and imports. In fact, the GDP growth rate of the United States in the first quarter was slightly lower than market expectations, indicating that the market lacks understanding of the slow recovery of production caused by excessive fiscal subsidies in the United States, and is overly optimistic about the improvement of the epidemic. expectations.</p><p><b>Household consumption: Subsidies promote commodity consumption, and the epidemic situation eases and the service industry recovers.</b>1) In 21Q1, U.S. personal consumption expenditures drove GDP by 1.1 percentage points year-on-year, a significant improvement of 3 percentage points from 20Q4. Commodity consumption is mainly driven by durable goods, while service consumption has a greater improvement in GDP than durable goods consumption; 2) From a monthly high-frequency perspective, PCE in March was 8.5% year-on-year and 3.7% month-on-month. It strengthened again after falling slightly during the direct subsidy vacuum period in February. It shows the immediate stimulating effect of the subsidy of US $1,400 in March on consumption, as well as the recovery of service consumption under the relaxation of prevention and control measures. However, judging from the intensity of the recovery of service consumption, it is actually slightly weaker than the overly optimistic expectations of overseas markets in February-March.</p><p><b>Investment: Equipment investment has improved significantly, interest rates have suppressed real estate investment, and inventory replenishment has not occurred.</b>In 21Q1, domestic private investment drove GDP by 0.8 percentage points year-on-year, a slight improvement of 0.1 percentage points from the fourth quarter. 1) The improvement in non-residential investment shows that the U.S. production sector's expectations for the economic outlook have improved; 2) The year-on-year decline in the contribution of private inventory changes to 21Q1 GDP is a manifestation of the tear between supply and demand in the U.S. economy. Strong demand and slow recovery of production have led to a decline in inventory. This means that the strengthening of commodity prices in Q1 cannot be supported by U.S. industrial production. Supported by strong and active inventory replenishment logic; 3) The year-on-year contribution of residential investment to GDP remained basically stable, while the month-on-month growth rate was suppressed by the overall increase in U.S. interest rates in the previous period. The follow-up is expected to continue to cool down with the medium-term upward process of interest rates.</p><p><b>Government expenditure and net exports: Subsidies drive the increase of government expenditure, and the widening gap between supply and demand leads to the high increase of imports.</b>The tear between supply and demand in the U.S. economy has caused net exports to deepen the drag on GDP again. Net exports in 21Q1 dragged down GDP by 2 percentage points year-on-year, and the degree of drag was 0.7 percentage points higher than that in 20Q4. Government expenditure in 21Q1 boosted GDP by 0.1 percentage points year-on-year, mainly due to the U.S. government's issuance of direct subsidy checks to residents to the banking system and the cost of purchasing vaccines.</p><p><b>It is expected that the U.S. economic recovery will reach a high point in the second quarter. Pay attention to the follow-up progress of the epidemic.</b>We believe that the strength of future U.S. economic recovery depends on the vaccination process and the spread of COVID-19 pandemic. Under the assumption that the epidemic situation in the United States continues to ease and the service industry gradually recovers, the second quarter is expected to be the highest point for the recovery of the U.S. economy. However, the tear between supply and demand caused by excessive subsidies will continue until September, and the intensity of the recovery of the U.S. economy during the year may not be as strong as the market expected. Personal consumption expenditure: It is expected that the first quarter will be the high point of commodity consumption, and service industry consumption will continue to gradually recover as the epidemic eases. However, the spread of more contagious virus variants in the United States and overseas countries will also affect the subsequent recovery intensity of service industry; Investment: The improvement of non-residential investment needs to pay attention to the subsequent progress of the epidemic. Residential investment will decline with the gradual cooling of the real estate market; Private inventory changes may wait until September after the end of unemployment benefits. Government expenditure and net exports: Government expenditure is expected to continue to make a positive contribution to GDP year-on-year before the fourth quarter. Net exports will return to normal levels as the gap between supply and demand narrows later this year.</p><p><b>2. Global macro data</b></p><p><b>High-frequency data this week</b>: New orders for durable goods in the United States increased year-on-month</p><p><b>Epidemic</b>: New confirmed cases in the United States declined.</p><p><b>Demand</b>: Japan's retail sales rebounded sharply year-on-year.</p><p><b>Supply and employment</b>: New orders for durable goods in the United States increased year-on-month.</p><p><b>Trade</b>: U.S. imports and exports both rose sharply year-on-year in March.</p><p><b>Inflation and Commodities</b>: Oil prices rose slightly.</p><p><b>Real Estate</b>: The U.S. existing home contract sales index rose in March.</p><p><b>Monetary policy and exchange rates</b>: the US Dollar Index falls, gold prices stabilize.</p><p><b>Global Macro Calendar</b>: Focus on US ISM Manufacturing PMI</p><p>text</p><p><b>1. Zhou's point of view: Is the GDP of the United States strong or weak in the first quarter?</b></p><p><b>1.21 Q1 U.S. GDP was 0.4% year-on-year, slightly lower than market expectations</b></p><p>The actual 21Q1 GDP of the United States was 0.4% year-on-year, turning positive year-on-year for the first time since the epidemic, and 1.6% month-on-month. The main contributing factors are commodity consumption, service consumption, and non-residential investment, showing the relatively rapid recovery of the U.S. economy under the improvement of the epidemic and fiscal subsidies. The main drag items are changes in private inventories and imports. In fact, the GDP growth rate of the United States in the first quarter was slightly lower than market expectations, indicating that the market lacks understanding of the slow recovery of production caused by excessive fiscal subsidies in the United States, and is overly optimistic about the improvement of the epidemic. expectations.</p><p><img src=\"http://img.zhitongcaijing.com/images/contentformat/867b3b31bf5a4410ca85884cf283ce1f.jpg\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"588\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><b>2. Household consumption: Subsidies promote commodity consumption, and the epidemic eases and the service industry recovers</b></p><p>In 21Q1, financial subsidies of up to 2,000 USD/person stimulate commodity consumption; The easing of the epidemic has promoted the recovery of service consumption, but it is slightly weaker than the early optimistic expectations of overseas markets. 1) From a quarterly perspective, U.S. personal consumption expenditure in 21Q1 drove GDP by 1.1 percentage points year-on-year, a significant improvement of 3 percentage points from 20Q4. It jumped from the largest drag on GDP in the fourth quarter to the largest contribution, showing that the first quarter also had The stimulating effect of the US $600 subsidy in January and the US $1,400 subsidy issued in March on consumption, as well as the gradual release of service consumption as the epidemic eases. 2) From the perspective of monthly high frequency, PCE in March reached 8.5% year-on-year and 3.7% month-on-month. It strengthened again after falling slightly during the direct subsidy vacuum period in February. Among them, the year-on-year growth rate of durable goods and service consumption increased again, reaching 43.3% and 4.8% respectively in March, while non-durable goods slowed down slightly (4.3%) year-on-year, indicating that the subsidy of US $1,400 in March had an immediate stimulus effect on consumption, and the recovery of service consumption under the relaxation of prevention and control measures. However, judging from the intensity of the recovery of service consumption, it is actually slightly weaker than the overly optimistic expectations of overseas markets in February-March.</p><p><img src=\"http://img.zhitongcaijing.com/images/contentformat/fb6a3cdada866cc05b11f3b44abb7b40.jpg\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"398\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>Commodity consumption and service consumption jointly drive the high increase of personal consumption expenditure. 1) Commodity consumption is mainly driven by durable goods. Commodity consumption in 21Q1 boosted GDP by 3.2 percentage points, an improvement of 1.5 percentage points compared with 20Q4, mainly due to the high growth of durable goods again under the fiscal stimulus in the first quarter. The contribution of durable goods to GDP in 21Q1 improved significantly by 1.3 percentage points compared with the fourth quarter, while the contribution of non-durable goods to GDP only slightly improved by 0.3 percentage points; 2) The improvement of service consumption on GDP is greater than that of durable goods consumption. Although service consumption in 21Q1 still has a negative pull of-1.4% on GDP, it has improved significantly by 1.6 percentage points compared with the previous quarter, and the improvement rate is even greater than that of durable goods consumption, showing that service consumption has improved under the dual factors of fiscal subsidies and epidemic easing. The flexibility is greater.</p><p><img src=\"http://img.zhitongcaijing.com/images/contentformat/e8b1b37f95a3c799e28a194bc63e56e7.jpg\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"399\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><b>3. Investment: Equipment investment has improved significantly, interest rates have suppressed real estate investment, and inventory replenishment has not occurred</b></p><p>The effect of non-residential investment on GDP has been greatly improved, and private inventory has turned into a drag. In 21Q1, domestic private investment drove GDP by 0.8 percentage points year-on-year, a slight improvement of 0.1 percentage points from the fourth quarter.</p><p>1) The improvement in non-residential investment shows that the U.S. production sector's expectations for the economic outlook have improved. The main contributor to the improvement of private investment is non-residential investment (an improvement of 0.6 percentage points), which mainly comes from equipment investment, indicating that manufacturing companies remain optimistic about the prospects for economic recovery.</p><p>2) The year-on-year decline in the contribution of private inventory changes to 21Q1 GDP is a manifestation of the tear between supply and demand in the U.S. economy. Strong demand and slow recovery of production have led to a decline in inventories. This means that the strengthening of commodity prices in Q1 cannot be supported by U.S. industrial production. Supported by strong and active inventory replenishment logic. The main drag on private investment was the change of private inventory (0.4 percentage points).</p><p>3) The year-on-year contribution of residential investment to GDP remained basically stable, while the month-on-month growth rate was suppressed by the overall increase in U.S. interest rates in the previous period. The follow-up is expected to continue to cool down with the medium-term upward process of interest rates. The pull of residential investment on GDP in 21Q1 remained stable. However, with the gradual increase of mortgage interest rates in the past 21 years, the U.S. real estate market has cooled down, and residential construction expenditures and existing home sales have slowed down. It is expected that subsequent residential investment will have an impact on GDP. The pulling effect will gradually decline.</p><p><img src=\"http://img.zhitongcaijing.com/images/contentformat/8831f8bd60fdfc9671df61b6e741faaa.jpg\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"393\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><b>4. Government expenditure and net exports: Subsidies drive the increase of government expenditure, and the widening gap between supply and demand leads to the high increase of imports</b></p><p>The tear between supply and demand in the U.S. economy has caused net exports to deepen the drag on GDP again. Net exports in 21Q1 dragged down GDP by 2 percentage points year-on-year, and the degree of drag was 0.7 percentage points higher than that in 20Q4. 1) Exports dragged down by 1 percentage point, but have improved by 0.2 percentage points from the previous quarter, showing a slight recovery in U.S. industrial production, but it is still dwarfed by the 3.0 percentage point improvement in personal consumption expenditures. What actually reflects the excessive fiscal subsidies in the United States. The widening gap between supply and demand in 21Q1; 2) Imports dragged down GDP by 1.0 percentage points year-on-year in 21Q1, a significant increase of 0.9 percentage points compared with the previous quarter. The direct consequence of the widening gap between supply and demand in the United States is the expansion of import scale.</p><p>Government expenditure in 21Q1 boosted GDP by 0.1 percentage points year-on-year, mainly due to the U.S. government's issuance of direct subsidy checks to residents to the banking system and the cost of purchasing vaccines.</p><p><img src=\"http://img.zhitongcaijing.com/images/contentformat/1e6d4ceb162a00ae93de51b3cf6bb71b.jpg\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"386\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><b>5. The U.S. economic recovery is expected to reach a high point in the second quarter, and pay attention to the follow-up progress of the epidemic</b></p><p>Looking ahead, we believe that the strength of future U.S. economic recovery depends on the vaccination process and the spread of COVID-19 pandemic. Under the assumption that the epidemic situation in the United States continues to ease and the service industry gradually recovers, the second quarter is expected to be the highest point for the recovery of the U.S. economy. However, the tear between supply and demand caused by excessive subsidies will continue until September, and the intensity of the recovery of the U.S. economy during the year may not be as strong as the market expected.</p><p>Personal consumption expenditure: 1) Although commodity consumption in 21Q1 showed extremely strong momentum, we expect that the first quarter was already the high point of commodity consumption, and it will gradually decline as subsidies ebb; 2) Consumption in the service industry will continue to gradually recover as the epidemic eases, but the global epidemic has rebounded since March, especially in European countries and emerging countries. At the same time, the spread of more contagious virus variants in the United States and overseas countries will also affect the subsequent recovery intensity of the service industry.</p><p>Investment: 1) The main driving force for the improvement of non-residential investment in 21Q1 is the expectation of economic improvement. From the current point of view, the global epidemic is the core factor that determines the intensity of economic recovery, and we need to pay attention to the subsequent progress of the epidemic; 2) Residential investment will decline as the real estate market gradually cools down; 3) Changes in private inventories, that is, the intensity of inventory replenishment will depend on whether the current situation of the tearing between supply and demand in the United States can be alleviated. From the current point of view, it may not be until the end of unemployment subsidies in September that there will be a significant bridging trend between the supply and demand ends in the United States. Then drive inventory investment.</p><p>Government expenditure and net exports: 1) As unemployment subsidies continue to be paid in the second and third quarters, government expenditure is expected to continue to make a positive contribution to GDP year-on-year before the fourth quarter, and if the U.S. employment plan or the U.S. household plan can be implemented within the year, it will also boost the level of government spending; In terms of net exports, exports will depend on the progress of the recovery of U.S. industrial production. As mentioned above, it may not be boosted until the fourth quarter. Imports, on the contrary, will fall back to normal as the gap between supply and demand narrows later this year. level.</p><p><img src=\"http://img.zhitongcaijing.com/images/contentformat/32e1b124c2e79173310a2a69f29f1ee7.jpg\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"547\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><b>2. Global macro data: New confirmed cases in the United States decreased</b></p><p><b>1. Epidemic situation: New confirmed cases in the United States decreased</b></p><p>The number of new confirmed cases in the United States dropped this week. The average number of newly diagnosed cases in the United States dropped to more than 53,000 on the 7th day. As of April 29, the total number of confirmed cases in COVID-19 pandemic worldwide exceeded 150 million, the total number of deaths was 3.14 million, and the total number of recovered cases was 120 million. In the four days of this week (April 27-April 30), there were 220,000 and 9,000 new confirmed cases in the United States and the United Kingdom respectively.</p><p>As of April 28, the most COVID-19 vaccine vaccinations per 100 people worldwide were in Israel, reaching 121.1 shots per 100 people, 70.2 shots per 100 people in the United States, and 70.9 shots per 100 people in the United Kingdom. As of April 28, Israel has the highest proportion of fully vaccinated people in the world, reaching 58.7%, while the United States and the United Kingdom have 29.3% and 20.7% respectively.</p><p><img src=\"http://img.zhitongcaijing.com/images/contentformat/887a942234cb8fe459a2f83e1d51371f.jpg\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"591\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><img src=\"http://img.zhitongcaijing.com/images/contentformat/62573bfd15fa133a1b4a5d4e236f878d.jpg\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"397\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><b>2. Demand: Japan's retail sales rebounded sharply year-on-year</b></p><p>Japan's retail sales and wholesale sales both rose sharply year-on-year. Japan's retail sales index in March was 5.3% year-on-year, of which textiles and clothing in retail sales were 15.8% year-on-year, and the wholesale sales index in March was 1.0% year-on-year.</p><p><img src=\"http://img.zhitongcaijing.com/images/contentformat/a115423dbfa92a2b68fd1ddba7b7202c.jpg\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"432\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>South Korea's retail sales continued to grow year-on-year in March, and semi-durable goods consumption increased significantly. South Korea's retail sales in March increased by 3.5 percentage points year-on-year to 13.5%, with semi-durable goods consumption growing the fastest, 35.5% year-on-year; Durable goods were 13.6% year-on-year, and non-durable goods were 6.5% year-on-year.</p><p><img src=\"http://img.zhitongcaijing.com/images/contentformat/660433692ab7c356ac6e92af5532c956.jpg\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"549\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><b>3. Supply and employment: New orders for durable goods in the United States rose year-on-month</b></p><p>U.S. durable goods inventories rose, and the growth rate of new orders rose year-on-month. U.S. durable goods inventories reached US $431.84 billion in March, a month-on-month increase of 1.0% and a year-on-year increase of 1.7%. New orders for durable goods in the United States rose by 0.5% month-on-month in March, a sharp increase of 25% year-on-year.</p><p><img src=\"http://img.zhitongcaijing.com/images/contentformat/00d167c28987b587b0353bdb22cabcb3.jpg\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"397\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>Japan's unemployment rate fell to 2.6% in March. Japan's unemployment rate fell 0.3 percentage points from the previous month to 2.6% in March. South Korea's industrial production index rose year-on-month, and the industry continued to rebound. South Korea's industrial production index rose 5.7% year-on-year and 0.8% month-on-month to 112.6 in March.</p><p><img src=\"http://img.zhitongcaijing.com/images/contentformat/3e518f69ea70eb9423bd2c4c0800a9d4.jpg\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"393\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>U.S. industrial materials production continues to rise. 1) In the week ending April 24, U.S. weekly crude steel production increased by 43.6% year-on-year, and capacity utilization increased slightly by 0.4 percentage points from last week to 78.4%; 2) As of April 23, the operational capacity utilization rate of U.S. refineries increased by 0.4 percentage points to 85.4%.</p><p><img src=\"http://img.zhitongcaijing.com/images/contentformat/08378049f4011957a1ca13a61b5f7ee9.jpg\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"395\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>The number of initial jobless claims in the United States fell slightly during the week, while the number of continuing jobless claims rose slightly. The number of initial jobless claims in the United States reached 553,000 in the week of April 24, a decrease of 13,000 from last week; The number of people who continued to apply for unemployment benefits in the week of April 17 reached 3.66 million, an increase of 9,000 from the previous month.</p><p><img src=\"http://img.zhitongcaijing.com/images/contentformat/50abaebb23322c65845134f36edf2eac.jpg\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"550\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><b>4. Trade: U.S. imports and exports rose sharply year-on-year in March</b></p><p>U.S. imports and exports both rose sharply year-on-year in March. U.S. export growth in March rose sharply by 16.5 percentage points from the previous month to 11.5%, and imports were 20.6% year-on-year. The U.S. merchandise trade balance in March was-$90.59 billion.</p><p><img src=\"http://img.zhitongcaijing.com/images/contentformat/b94fcaf0b73f26e0f7e86a9f8b746b80.jpg\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"549\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><b>5. Inflation and commodities: Oil prices rise slightly</b></p><p>EIA crude oil inventories rose by 9 million barrels in the week of April 28, while U.S. crude oil production fell slightly by 100,000 barrels per day to 10.9 million barrels per day. As of April 29, the weekly average price of WTI crude oil rose to US $63.2/barrel; The weekly average price of Brent oil rose to US $66.6/barrel.</p><p><img src=\"http://img.zhitongcaijing.com/images/contentformat/2ea9504a69c4ccccc0e74ff1a56da96e.jpg\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"396\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><img src=\"http://img.zhitongcaijing.com/images/contentformat/e2a42a869453a51bf63a352119f75e6a.jpg\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"402\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><b>6. Real estate: The U.S. existing home contract sales index rose year-on-year in March</b></p><p>The U.S. S&P/CS home price index rose for eight consecutive months in February. In February, the U.S. S&P/CS home price index rose 11.9% year-on-year to 246.0, rising for eight consecutive months. The U.S. existing home contract sales index in March rose by 23.3% year-on-year and 1.9% month-on-month.</p><p><img src=\"http://img.zhitongcaijing.com/images/contentformat/6ac3751240b8a02c34f4c66d93fb255b.jpg\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"398\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>Japan's new housing starts and construction orders rose sharply in March. Japan's new housing starts in March were 1.5% year-on-year and 18.1% month-on-month. The number of construction orders in March was 12.5% year-on-year and 192.7% month-on-month, the highest increase in nearly a year.</p><p><img src=\"http://img.zhitongcaijing.com/images/contentformat/e961519800be12d5e185f10acff56a58.jpg\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"392\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>U.S. 5-year mortgage rates fell, while 15-year, 30-year mortgage rates rose. In the week ending April 29, the 5-year mortgage rate fell by 0.2 percentage points to 2.6%, while the 15-year and 30-year mortgage rates rose to 2.3% and 3.0% respectively. As of the week of April 23, the U.S. MBA market index fell by 18.2 to 706.6, and the housing market fell slightly.</p><p><img src=\"http://img.zhitongcaijing.com/images/contentformat/2eb2b206b830b79a11aed2265d986bec.jpg\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"395\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><b>7. Monetary policy and exchange rate: the US Dollar Index fell, gold prices were basically stable</b></p><p>The Federal Reserve's interest rate meeting was held this week. Powell's speech was dovish, the US Dollar Index fell, and gold prices were basically stable. On April 28, local time, the Federal Reserve announced a statement on the interest rate meeting. Powell said at the press conference after the meeting that it will still take some time to see substantial progress. Before that, the current scale of asset purchases will be maintained. It is not yet time to discuss Taper. the US Dollar Index continues to decline. As of April 29, the US Dollar Index closed at 90.6140, down 0.7% from last week; The exchange rates of the euro and pound against the US dollar (pound exchange rate data as of the 28th) closed at 1.2129 and 1.3906 respectively, appreciating 0.7% and depreciating 0.2% respectively from last week; As the Bank of Canada took the lead in Taper, the Canadian dollar strengthened, closing at 1.2292, an appreciation of 1.7% from last week. The average weekly gold price in London this week was US $1,774.8 per ounce, which was basically stable from last week, and the year-on-year increase fell by 1.2 pct from last week to 3.6%.</p><p><img src=\"http://img.zhitongcaijing.com/images/contentformat/c2e4e8d549f84a56f7d651806cc3a657.jpg\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"398\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><img src=\"http://img.zhitongcaijing.com/images/contentformat/09b461fbeb60aed3abf2e7ffd691b486.jpg\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"551\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>","source":"highlight_zhitongcaijin","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Is the GDP of the United States strong or weak in the first quarter?</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nIs the GDP of the United States strong or weak in the first quarter?\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">智通财经网</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-05-02 15:45</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><b>This article comes from \"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/000166\">Shenwan Hongyuan</a>Macro \".</b></p><p>SUMMARY</p><p><b>1. Zhou's point of view: Is the GDP of the United States strong or weak in the first quarter?</b></p><p><b>U.S. GDP in 21Q1 was 0.4% year-on-year, slightly lower than market expectations.</b>The actual 21Q1 GDP of the United States was 0.4% year-on-year, turning positive year-on-year for the first time since the epidemic, and 1.6% month-on-month. The main contributing factors are commodity consumption, service consumption, and non-residential investment, showing the rapid recovery of the U.S. economy under the improvement of the epidemic and fiscal subsidies. However, the main drag items are changes in private inventories and imports. In fact, the GDP growth rate of the United States in the first quarter was slightly lower than market expectations, indicating that the market lacks understanding of the slow recovery of production caused by excessive fiscal subsidies in the United States, and is overly optimistic about the improvement of the epidemic. expectations.</p><p><b>Household consumption: Subsidies promote commodity consumption, and the epidemic situation eases and the service industry recovers.</b>1) In 21Q1, U.S. personal consumption expenditures drove GDP by 1.1 percentage points year-on-year, a significant improvement of 3 percentage points from 20Q4. Commodity consumption is mainly driven by durable goods, while service consumption has a greater improvement in GDP than durable goods consumption; 2) From a monthly high-frequency perspective, PCE in March was 8.5% year-on-year and 3.7% month-on-month. It strengthened again after falling slightly during the direct subsidy vacuum period in February. It shows the immediate stimulating effect of the subsidy of US $1,400 in March on consumption, as well as the recovery of service consumption under the relaxation of prevention and control measures. However, judging from the intensity of the recovery of service consumption, it is actually slightly weaker than the overly optimistic expectations of overseas markets in February-March.</p><p><b>Investment: Equipment investment has improved significantly, interest rates have suppressed real estate investment, and inventory replenishment has not occurred.</b>In 21Q1, domestic private investment drove GDP by 0.8 percentage points year-on-year, a slight improvement of 0.1 percentage points from the fourth quarter. 1) The improvement in non-residential investment shows that the U.S. production sector's expectations for the economic outlook have improved; 2) The year-on-year decline in the contribution of private inventory changes to 21Q1 GDP is a manifestation of the tear between supply and demand in the U.S. economy. Strong demand and slow recovery of production have led to a decline in inventory. This means that the strengthening of commodity prices in Q1 cannot be supported by U.S. industrial production. Supported by strong and active inventory replenishment logic; 3) The year-on-year contribution of residential investment to GDP remained basically stable, while the month-on-month growth rate was suppressed by the overall increase in U.S. interest rates in the previous period. The follow-up is expected to continue to cool down with the medium-term upward process of interest rates.</p><p><b>Government expenditure and net exports: Subsidies drive the increase of government expenditure, and the widening gap between supply and demand leads to the high increase of imports.</b>The tear between supply and demand in the U.S. economy has caused net exports to deepen the drag on GDP again. Net exports in 21Q1 dragged down GDP by 2 percentage points year-on-year, and the degree of drag was 0.7 percentage points higher than that in 20Q4. Government expenditure in 21Q1 boosted GDP by 0.1 percentage points year-on-year, mainly due to the U.S. government's issuance of direct subsidy checks to residents to the banking system and the cost of purchasing vaccines.</p><p><b>It is expected that the U.S. economic recovery will reach a high point in the second quarter. Pay attention to the follow-up progress of the epidemic.</b>We believe that the strength of future U.S. economic recovery depends on the vaccination process and the spread of COVID-19 pandemic. Under the assumption that the epidemic situation in the United States continues to ease and the service industry gradually recovers, the second quarter is expected to be the highest point for the recovery of the U.S. economy. However, the tear between supply and demand caused by excessive subsidies will continue until September, and the intensity of the recovery of the U.S. economy during the year may not be as strong as the market expected. Personal consumption expenditure: It is expected that the first quarter will be the high point of commodity consumption, and service industry consumption will continue to gradually recover as the epidemic eases. However, the spread of more contagious virus variants in the United States and overseas countries will also affect the subsequent recovery intensity of service industry; Investment: The improvement of non-residential investment needs to pay attention to the subsequent progress of the epidemic. Residential investment will decline with the gradual cooling of the real estate market; Private inventory changes may wait until September after the end of unemployment benefits. Government expenditure and net exports: Government expenditure is expected to continue to make a positive contribution to GDP year-on-year before the fourth quarter. Net exports will return to normal levels as the gap between supply and demand narrows later this year.</p><p><b>2. Global macro data</b></p><p><b>High-frequency data this week</b>: New orders for durable goods in the United States increased year-on-month</p><p><b>Epidemic</b>: New confirmed cases in the United States declined.</p><p><b>Demand</b>: Japan's retail sales rebounded sharply year-on-year.</p><p><b>Supply and employment</b>: New orders for durable goods in the United States increased year-on-month.</p><p><b>Trade</b>: U.S. imports and exports both rose sharply year-on-year in March.</p><p><b>Inflation and Commodities</b>: Oil prices rose slightly.</p><p><b>Real Estate</b>: The U.S. existing home contract sales index rose in March.</p><p><b>Monetary policy and exchange rates</b>: the US Dollar Index falls, gold prices stabilize.</p><p><b>Global Macro Calendar</b>: Focus on US ISM Manufacturing PMI</p><p>text</p><p><b>1. Zhou's point of view: Is the GDP of the United States strong or weak in the first quarter?</b></p><p><b>1.21 Q1 U.S. GDP was 0.4% year-on-year, slightly lower than market expectations</b></p><p>The actual 21Q1 GDP of the United States was 0.4% year-on-year, turning positive year-on-year for the first time since the epidemic, and 1.6% month-on-month. The main contributing factors are commodity consumption, service consumption, and non-residential investment, showing the relatively rapid recovery of the U.S. economy under the improvement of the epidemic and fiscal subsidies. The main drag items are changes in private inventories and imports. In fact, the GDP growth rate of the United States in the first quarter was slightly lower than market expectations, indicating that the market lacks understanding of the slow recovery of production caused by excessive fiscal subsidies in the United States, and is overly optimistic about the improvement of the epidemic. expectations.</p><p><img src=\"http://img.zhitongcaijing.com/images/contentformat/867b3b31bf5a4410ca85884cf283ce1f.jpg\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"588\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><b>2. Household consumption: Subsidies promote commodity consumption, and the epidemic eases and the service industry recovers</b></p><p>In 21Q1, financial subsidies of up to 2,000 USD/person stimulate commodity consumption; The easing of the epidemic has promoted the recovery of service consumption, but it is slightly weaker than the early optimistic expectations of overseas markets. 1) From a quarterly perspective, U.S. personal consumption expenditure in 21Q1 drove GDP by 1.1 percentage points year-on-year, a significant improvement of 3 percentage points from 20Q4. It jumped from the largest drag on GDP in the fourth quarter to the largest contribution, showing that the first quarter also had The stimulating effect of the US $600 subsidy in January and the US $1,400 subsidy issued in March on consumption, as well as the gradual release of service consumption as the epidemic eases. 2) From the perspective of monthly high frequency, PCE in March reached 8.5% year-on-year and 3.7% month-on-month. It strengthened again after falling slightly during the direct subsidy vacuum period in February. Among them, the year-on-year growth rate of durable goods and service consumption increased again, reaching 43.3% and 4.8% respectively in March, while non-durable goods slowed down slightly (4.3%) year-on-year, indicating that the subsidy of US $1,400 in March had an immediate stimulus effect on consumption, and the recovery of service consumption under the relaxation of prevention and control measures. However, judging from the intensity of the recovery of service consumption, it is actually slightly weaker than the overly optimistic expectations of overseas markets in February-March.</p><p><img src=\"http://img.zhitongcaijing.com/images/contentformat/fb6a3cdada866cc05b11f3b44abb7b40.jpg\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"398\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>Commodity consumption and service consumption jointly drive the high increase of personal consumption expenditure. 1) Commodity consumption is mainly driven by durable goods. Commodity consumption in 21Q1 boosted GDP by 3.2 percentage points, an improvement of 1.5 percentage points compared with 20Q4, mainly due to the high growth of durable goods again under the fiscal stimulus in the first quarter. The contribution of durable goods to GDP in 21Q1 improved significantly by 1.3 percentage points compared with the fourth quarter, while the contribution of non-durable goods to GDP only slightly improved by 0.3 percentage points; 2) The improvement of service consumption on GDP is greater than that of durable goods consumption. Although service consumption in 21Q1 still has a negative pull of-1.4% on GDP, it has improved significantly by 1.6 percentage points compared with the previous quarter, and the improvement rate is even greater than that of durable goods consumption, showing that service consumption has improved under the dual factors of fiscal subsidies and epidemic easing. The flexibility is greater.</p><p><img src=\"http://img.zhitongcaijing.com/images/contentformat/e8b1b37f95a3c799e28a194bc63e56e7.jpg\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"399\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><b>3. Investment: Equipment investment has improved significantly, interest rates have suppressed real estate investment, and inventory replenishment has not occurred</b></p><p>The effect of non-residential investment on GDP has been greatly improved, and private inventory has turned into a drag. In 21Q1, domestic private investment drove GDP by 0.8 percentage points year-on-year, a slight improvement of 0.1 percentage points from the fourth quarter.</p><p>1) The improvement in non-residential investment shows that the U.S. production sector's expectations for the economic outlook have improved. The main contributor to the improvement of private investment is non-residential investment (an improvement of 0.6 percentage points), which mainly comes from equipment investment, indicating that manufacturing companies remain optimistic about the prospects for economic recovery.</p><p>2) The year-on-year decline in the contribution of private inventory changes to 21Q1 GDP is a manifestation of the tear between supply and demand in the U.S. economy. Strong demand and slow recovery of production have led to a decline in inventories. This means that the strengthening of commodity prices in Q1 cannot be supported by U.S. industrial production. Supported by strong and active inventory replenishment logic. The main drag on private investment was the change of private inventory (0.4 percentage points).</p><p>3) The year-on-year contribution of residential investment to GDP remained basically stable, while the month-on-month growth rate was suppressed by the overall increase in U.S. interest rates in the previous period. The follow-up is expected to continue to cool down with the medium-term upward process of interest rates. The pull of residential investment on GDP in 21Q1 remained stable. However, with the gradual increase of mortgage interest rates in the past 21 years, the U.S. real estate market has cooled down, and residential construction expenditures and existing home sales have slowed down. It is expected that subsequent residential investment will have an impact on GDP. The pulling effect will gradually decline.</p><p><img src=\"http://img.zhitongcaijing.com/images/contentformat/8831f8bd60fdfc9671df61b6e741faaa.jpg\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"393\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><b>4. Government expenditure and net exports: Subsidies drive the increase of government expenditure, and the widening gap between supply and demand leads to the high increase of imports</b></p><p>The tear between supply and demand in the U.S. economy has caused net exports to deepen the drag on GDP again. Net exports in 21Q1 dragged down GDP by 2 percentage points year-on-year, and the degree of drag was 0.7 percentage points higher than that in 20Q4. 1) Exports dragged down by 1 percentage point, but have improved by 0.2 percentage points from the previous quarter, showing a slight recovery in U.S. industrial production, but it is still dwarfed by the 3.0 percentage point improvement in personal consumption expenditures. What actually reflects the excessive fiscal subsidies in the United States. The widening gap between supply and demand in 21Q1; 2) Imports dragged down GDP by 1.0 percentage points year-on-year in 21Q1, a significant increase of 0.9 percentage points compared with the previous quarter. The direct consequence of the widening gap between supply and demand in the United States is the expansion of import scale.</p><p>Government expenditure in 21Q1 boosted GDP by 0.1 percentage points year-on-year, mainly due to the U.S. government's issuance of direct subsidy checks to residents to the banking system and the cost of purchasing vaccines.</p><p><img src=\"http://img.zhitongcaijing.com/images/contentformat/1e6d4ceb162a00ae93de51b3cf6bb71b.jpg\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"386\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><b>5. The U.S. economic recovery is expected to reach a high point in the second quarter, and pay attention to the follow-up progress of the epidemic</b></p><p>Looking ahead, we believe that the strength of future U.S. economic recovery depends on the vaccination process and the spread of COVID-19 pandemic. Under the assumption that the epidemic situation in the United States continues to ease and the service industry gradually recovers, the second quarter is expected to be the highest point for the recovery of the U.S. economy. However, the tear between supply and demand caused by excessive subsidies will continue until September, and the intensity of the recovery of the U.S. economy during the year may not be as strong as the market expected.</p><p>Personal consumption expenditure: 1) Although commodity consumption in 21Q1 showed extremely strong momentum, we expect that the first quarter was already the high point of commodity consumption, and it will gradually decline as subsidies ebb; 2) Consumption in the service industry will continue to gradually recover as the epidemic eases, but the global epidemic has rebounded since March, especially in European countries and emerging countries. At the same time, the spread of more contagious virus variants in the United States and overseas countries will also affect the subsequent recovery intensity of the service industry.</p><p>Investment: 1) The main driving force for the improvement of non-residential investment in 21Q1 is the expectation of economic improvement. From the current point of view, the global epidemic is the core factor that determines the intensity of economic recovery, and we need to pay attention to the subsequent progress of the epidemic; 2) Residential investment will decline as the real estate market gradually cools down; 3) Changes in private inventories, that is, the intensity of inventory replenishment will depend on whether the current situation of the tearing between supply and demand in the United States can be alleviated. From the current point of view, it may not be until the end of unemployment subsidies in September that there will be a significant bridging trend between the supply and demand ends in the United States. Then drive inventory investment.</p><p>Government expenditure and net exports: 1) As unemployment subsidies continue to be paid in the second and third quarters, government expenditure is expected to continue to make a positive contribution to GDP year-on-year before the fourth quarter, and if the U.S. employment plan or the U.S. household plan can be implemented within the year, it will also boost the level of government spending; In terms of net exports, exports will depend on the progress of the recovery of U.S. industrial production. As mentioned above, it may not be boosted until the fourth quarter. Imports, on the contrary, will fall back to normal as the gap between supply and demand narrows later this year. level.</p><p><img src=\"http://img.zhitongcaijing.com/images/contentformat/32e1b124c2e79173310a2a69f29f1ee7.jpg\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"547\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><b>2. Global macro data: New confirmed cases in the United States decreased</b></p><p><b>1. Epidemic situation: New confirmed cases in the United States decreased</b></p><p>The number of new confirmed cases in the United States dropped this week. The average number of newly diagnosed cases in the United States dropped to more than 53,000 on the 7th day. As of April 29, the total number of confirmed cases in COVID-19 pandemic worldwide exceeded 150 million, the total number of deaths was 3.14 million, and the total number of recovered cases was 120 million. In the four days of this week (April 27-April 30), there were 220,000 and 9,000 new confirmed cases in the United States and the United Kingdom respectively.</p><p>As of April 28, the most COVID-19 vaccine vaccinations per 100 people worldwide were in Israel, reaching 121.1 shots per 100 people, 70.2 shots per 100 people in the United States, and 70.9 shots per 100 people in the United Kingdom. As of April 28, Israel has the highest proportion of fully vaccinated people in the world, reaching 58.7%, while the United States and the United Kingdom have 29.3% and 20.7% respectively.</p><p><img src=\"http://img.zhitongcaijing.com/images/contentformat/887a942234cb8fe459a2f83e1d51371f.jpg\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"591\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><img src=\"http://img.zhitongcaijing.com/images/contentformat/62573bfd15fa133a1b4a5d4e236f878d.jpg\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"397\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><b>2. Demand: Japan's retail sales rebounded sharply year-on-year</b></p><p>Japan's retail sales and wholesale sales both rose sharply year-on-year. Japan's retail sales index in March was 5.3% year-on-year, of which textiles and clothing in retail sales were 15.8% year-on-year, and the wholesale sales index in March was 1.0% year-on-year.</p><p><img src=\"http://img.zhitongcaijing.com/images/contentformat/a115423dbfa92a2b68fd1ddba7b7202c.jpg\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"432\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>South Korea's retail sales continued to grow year-on-year in March, and semi-durable goods consumption increased significantly. South Korea's retail sales in March increased by 3.5 percentage points year-on-year to 13.5%, with semi-durable goods consumption growing the fastest, 35.5% year-on-year; Durable goods were 13.6% year-on-year, and non-durable goods were 6.5% year-on-year.</p><p><img src=\"http://img.zhitongcaijing.com/images/contentformat/660433692ab7c356ac6e92af5532c956.jpg\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"549\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><b>3. Supply and employment: New orders for durable goods in the United States rose year-on-month</b></p><p>U.S. durable goods inventories rose, and the growth rate of new orders rose year-on-month. U.S. durable goods inventories reached US $431.84 billion in March, a month-on-month increase of 1.0% and a year-on-year increase of 1.7%. New orders for durable goods in the United States rose by 0.5% month-on-month in March, a sharp increase of 25% year-on-year.</p><p><img src=\"http://img.zhitongcaijing.com/images/contentformat/00d167c28987b587b0353bdb22cabcb3.jpg\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"397\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>Japan's unemployment rate fell to 2.6% in March. Japan's unemployment rate fell 0.3 percentage points from the previous month to 2.6% in March. South Korea's industrial production index rose year-on-month, and the industry continued to rebound. South Korea's industrial production index rose 5.7% year-on-year and 0.8% month-on-month to 112.6 in March.</p><p><img src=\"http://img.zhitongcaijing.com/images/contentformat/3e518f69ea70eb9423bd2c4c0800a9d4.jpg\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"393\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>U.S. industrial materials production continues to rise. 1) In the week ending April 24, U.S. weekly crude steel production increased by 43.6% year-on-year, and capacity utilization increased slightly by 0.4 percentage points from last week to 78.4%; 2) As of April 23, the operational capacity utilization rate of U.S. refineries increased by 0.4 percentage points to 85.4%.</p><p><img src=\"http://img.zhitongcaijing.com/images/contentformat/08378049f4011957a1ca13a61b5f7ee9.jpg\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"395\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>The number of initial jobless claims in the United States fell slightly during the week, while the number of continuing jobless claims rose slightly. The number of initial jobless claims in the United States reached 553,000 in the week of April 24, a decrease of 13,000 from last week; The number of people who continued to apply for unemployment benefits in the week of April 17 reached 3.66 million, an increase of 9,000 from the previous month.</p><p><img src=\"http://img.zhitongcaijing.com/images/contentformat/50abaebb23322c65845134f36edf2eac.jpg\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"550\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><b>4. Trade: U.S. imports and exports rose sharply year-on-year in March</b></p><p>U.S. imports and exports both rose sharply year-on-year in March. U.S. export growth in March rose sharply by 16.5 percentage points from the previous month to 11.5%, and imports were 20.6% year-on-year. The U.S. merchandise trade balance in March was-$90.59 billion.</p><p><img src=\"http://img.zhitongcaijing.com/images/contentformat/b94fcaf0b73f26e0f7e86a9f8b746b80.jpg\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"549\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><b>5. Inflation and commodities: Oil prices rise slightly</b></p><p>EIA crude oil inventories rose by 9 million barrels in the week of April 28, while U.S. crude oil production fell slightly by 100,000 barrels per day to 10.9 million barrels per day. As of April 29, the weekly average price of WTI crude oil rose to US $63.2/barrel; The weekly average price of Brent oil rose to US $66.6/barrel.</p><p><img src=\"http://img.zhitongcaijing.com/images/contentformat/2ea9504a69c4ccccc0e74ff1a56da96e.jpg\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"396\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><img src=\"http://img.zhitongcaijing.com/images/contentformat/e2a42a869453a51bf63a352119f75e6a.jpg\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"402\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><b>6. Real estate: The U.S. existing home contract sales index rose year-on-year in March</b></p><p>The U.S. S&P/CS home price index rose for eight consecutive months in February. In February, the U.S. S&P/CS home price index rose 11.9% year-on-year to 246.0, rising for eight consecutive months. The U.S. existing home contract sales index in March rose by 23.3% year-on-year and 1.9% month-on-month.</p><p><img src=\"http://img.zhitongcaijing.com/images/contentformat/6ac3751240b8a02c34f4c66d93fb255b.jpg\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"398\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>Japan's new housing starts and construction orders rose sharply in March. Japan's new housing starts in March were 1.5% year-on-year and 18.1% month-on-month. The number of construction orders in March was 12.5% year-on-year and 192.7% month-on-month, the highest increase in nearly a year.</p><p><img src=\"http://img.zhitongcaijing.com/images/contentformat/e961519800be12d5e185f10acff56a58.jpg\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"392\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>U.S. 5-year mortgage rates fell, while 15-year, 30-year mortgage rates rose. In the week ending April 29, the 5-year mortgage rate fell by 0.2 percentage points to 2.6%, while the 15-year and 30-year mortgage rates rose to 2.3% and 3.0% respectively. As of the week of April 23, the U.S. MBA market index fell by 18.2 to 706.6, and the housing market fell slightly.</p><p><img src=\"http://img.zhitongcaijing.com/images/contentformat/2eb2b206b830b79a11aed2265d986bec.jpg\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"395\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><b>7. Monetary policy and exchange rate: the US Dollar Index fell, gold prices were basically stable</b></p><p>The Federal Reserve's interest rate meeting was held this week. Powell's speech was dovish, the US Dollar Index fell, and gold prices were basically stable. On April 28, local time, the Federal Reserve announced a statement on the interest rate meeting. Powell said at the press conference after the meeting that it will still take some time to see substantial progress. Before that, the current scale of asset purchases will be maintained. It is not yet time to discuss Taper. the US Dollar Index continues to decline. As of April 29, the US Dollar Index closed at 90.6140, down 0.7% from last week; The exchange rates of the euro and pound against the US dollar (pound exchange rate data as of the 28th) closed at 1.2129 and 1.3906 respectively, appreciating 0.7% and depreciating 0.2% respectively from last week; As the Bank of Canada took the lead in Taper, the Canadian dollar strengthened, closing at 1.2292, an appreciation of 1.7% from last week. The average weekly gold price in London this week was US $1,774.8 per ounce, which was basically stable from last week, and the year-on-year increase fell by 1.2 pct from last week to 3.6%.</p><p><img src=\"http://img.zhitongcaijing.com/images/contentformat/c2e4e8d549f84a56f7d651806cc3a657.jpg\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"398\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><img src=\"http://img.zhitongcaijing.com/images/contentformat/09b461fbeb60aed3abf2e7ffd691b486.jpg\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"551\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> source：<a href=\"http://www.zhitongcaijing.com/content/detail/466474.html\">智通财经网</a></p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://img.zhitongcaijing.com/image/20210501/20210501134714_46528.png?x-oss-process=image/format,jpg/quality,Q_80/resize,w_250","relate_stocks":{".DJI":"道琼斯"},"source_url":"http://www.zhitongcaijing.com/content/detail/466474.html","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/6ca2dcdccfa2217fb20a0351f4efe814","article_id":"2132567538","content_text":"本文来自“申万宏源宏观”。摘要一、周观点：美国一季度GDP究竟是偏强还是偏弱?21Q1美国GDP同比0.4%，略低于市场预期。美国21Q1  GDP实际同比0.4%，疫情以来首次同比转正，环比1.6%。主要贡献因素为商品消费、服务消费、非住宅投资，显示出疫情改善+财政补贴下美国经济快速复苏。但主要拖累项为私人存货变动及进口，且实际上，美国一季度GDP增速是小幅低于市场预期的，显示市场对美国过度财政补贴导致生产恢复缓慢的认识不足，以及对疫情改善过度乐观的预期。居民消费：补贴推动商品消费，疫情缓和服务业修复。1)21Q1美国个人消费支出拉动GDP同比1.1个百分点，较20Q4大幅改善3个百分点。商品消费主要为耐用品推动，而服务消费对GDP拉动的改善幅度大于耐用品消费;2)月度高频角度，3月PCE同比8.5%，环比3.7%，在2月直接补贴真空期小幅回落后再度走强。显示3月1400美金补贴发放对于消费立竿见影的刺激效果，以及防控措施放松下服务消费的恢复。但从服务消费恢复的强度来看，实际上略弱于2-3月海外市场的过度乐观预期。投资：设备投资改善显著，利率抑制地产投资，补库存并未出现。21Q1国内私人投资拉动GDP同比0.8个百分点，较4季度小幅改善0.1个百分点。1)非住宅投资改善显示美国生产部门对经济前景预期有所改善;2)私人存货变动对21Q1  GDP同比贡献的下降是美国经济供需撕裂的体现，需求旺盛而生产恢复缓慢，从而导致库存下降，这也就意味着Q1大宗商品价格的走强并不能得到美国工业生产强劲、主动补库存逻辑的支持;3)住宅投资对GDP同比贡献基本保持稳定，环比增速则随前期美国利率的整体抬升而受到抑制。后续预计将随着利率的中期上行过程而持续降温。政府支出和净出口：补贴推动政府支出增加，供需缺口拉大导致进口高增。美国经济供需撕裂导致净出口对GDP拖累程度再度加深。21Q1净出口拖累GDP同比2个百分点，拖累程度较上20Q4扩大0.7个百分点。政府支出21Q1对GDP同比拉动0.1个百分点，主要由于美国政府向银行体系发放针对居民的直接补贴支票以及购买疫苗费用。预计美国经济复苏2季度为高点，关注疫情后续进展。我们认为未来美国经济恢复的强度依赖于疫苗接种进程，以及新冠疫情的扩散情况。在美国疫情持续缓和、服务业渐进修复的假设下，预计2季度为美国经济恢复高点，但由于过度补贴导致的供需撕裂情况将持续到9月份，年内美国经济恢复的强度或将不会如市场预期一般强劲。个人消费支出：预计1季度是商品消费高点，服务业消费将继续随着疫情缓和而渐进式恢复，但美国本土及海外国家传染性更强的病毒变种的传播也将影响后续服务业恢复强度;投资：非住宅投资的改善需要关注后续疫情进展。住宅投资将随着地产市场的逐步降温而走低;私人库存变动或要等到9月失业补贴结束之后得以改善。政府支出和净出口：政府支出预计将在4季度前持续对GDP同比形成正贡献。净出口将随着今年后期供需缺口的收窄而回到正常水平。二、全球宏观数据本周高频数据：美国耐用品新订单同环比均上升疫情：美国新增确诊病例下降。需求：日本零售销售同比大幅回升。供给与就业：美国耐用品新订单同环比均上升。贸易：美国3月进出口同比均大幅上升。通胀和大宗商品：油价小幅上行。房地产：美3月成屋签约销售指数上升。货币政策和汇率：美元指数下跌，黄金价格稳定。全球宏观日历：关注美国ISM制造业PMI正文一、周观点：美国一季度GDP究竟是偏强还是偏弱?1.21Q1美国GDP同比0.4%，略低于市场预期美国21Q1GDP实际同比0.4%，疫情以来首次同比转正，环比1.6%。主要贡献因素为商品消费、服务消费、非住宅投资，显示出疫情改善+财政补贴下美国经济相对较快的复苏。主要拖累项为私人存货变动及进口，且实际上，美国一季度GDP增速是小幅低于市场预期的，显示市场对美国过度财政补贴导致生产恢复缓慢的认识不足，以及对疫情改善过度乐观的预期。2.居民消费：补贴推动商品消费，疫情缓和服务业修复21Q1高达2000美金/人的财政补贴拉动商品消费;疫情缓和推动服务消费恢复，但略弱于前期海外市场乐观预期。1)从季度角度看，21Q1美国个人消费支出拉动GDP同比1.1个百分点，较20Q4大幅改善3个百分点，从4季度对GDP最大的拖累项一跃转为最大的贡献项，显示一季度同时具备1月600美金补贴以及3月开始发放的1400美金补贴对消费的刺激效果，以及疫情缓和下服务消费的渐次释放。2)而从月度高频角度，3月PCE同比达到8.5%，环比3.7%，在2月直接补贴真空期小幅回落后再度走强。其中，耐用品、服务消费同比增速再度提升，3月分别达到43.3%和4.8%，而非耐用品同比略有放缓(4.3%)，显示3月1400美金补贴发放对于消费立竿见影的刺激效果，以及防控措施放松下服务消费的恢复。但从服务消费恢复的强度来看，实际上略弱于2-3月海外市场的过度乐观预期。商品消费、服务消费共同驱动个人消费支出高增。1)商品消费主要为耐用品推动。21Q1商品消费对GDP拉动3.2个百分点，较20Q4改善1.5个百分点，主要归功于耐用品在一季度财政刺激下再度高增，21Q1耐用品对GDP贡献度较4季度大幅改善1.3个百分点，而非耐用品对GDP贡献度仅小幅改善0.3个百分点;2)服务消费对GDP拉动效果的改善幅度大于耐用品消费。21Q1服务消费对GDP虽然仍为-1.4%的负拉动，但已较上季度大幅改善1.6个百分点，改善幅度更甚于耐用品消费，显示出服务消费在财政补贴+疫情缓和双重因素下改善的弹性更大。3.投资：设备投资改善显著，利率抑制地产投资，补库存并未出现非住宅投资对GDP拉动效果大幅改善，私人存货转为拖累。21Q1国内私人投资拉动GDP同比0.8个百分点，较4季度小幅改善0.1个百分点。1)非住宅投资改善显示美国生产部门对经济前景预期有所改善。私人投资改善的主要贡献因素为非住宅投资(改善0.6个百分点)，其中主要来自于设备投资，显示制造业企业对经济恢复前景保持乐观。2)私人存货变动对21Q1  GDP同比贡献的下降是美国经济供需撕裂的体现，需求旺盛而生产恢复缓慢，从而导致库存下降，这也就意味着Q1大宗商品价格的走强并不能得到美国工业生产强劲、主动补库存逻辑的支持。拖累私人投资的主要因素为私人存货变动(拖累0.4个百分点)。3)住宅投资对GDP同比贡献基本保持稳定，环比增速则随前期美国利率的整体抬升而受到抑制。后续预计将随着利率的中期上行过程而持续降温。21Q1住宅投资对GDP的拉动保持稳定，但随着21年以来抵押贷款利率的逐步上行，美国房地产市场已经有所降温，住宅营建支出、成屋销售已经有所放缓，预计后续住宅投资对GDP的拉动效果将逐步下降。4.政府支出和净出口：补贴推动政府支出增加，供需缺口拉大导致进口高增美国经济供需撕裂导致净出口对GDP拖累程度再度加深。21Q1净出口拖累GDP同比2个百分点，拖累程度较上20Q4扩大0.7个百分点。1)出口拖累1个百分点，但已较上个季度改善0.2个百分点，显示美国工业生产的小幅恢复，但相比个人消费支出3.0个百分点的改善幅度仍然相形见绌，实际体现的是美国过度财政补贴下21Q1供需缺口的拉大;2)而进口在21Q1拖累GDP同比1.0个百分点，拖累程度较上季度大幅扩大0.9个百分点，美国供需缺口拉大的直接后果便是进口规模的扩大。政府支出21Q1对GDP同比拉动0.1个百分点，主要由于美国政府向银行体系发放针对居民的直接补贴支票以及购买疫苗费用。5.预计美国经济复苏2季度为高点，关注疫情后续进展展望未来，我们认为未来美国经济恢复的强度依赖于疫苗接种进程，以及新冠疫情的扩散情况。在美国疫情持续缓和、服务业渐进修复的假设下，预计2季度为美国经济恢复高点，但由于过度补贴导致的供需撕裂情况将持续到9月份，年内美国经济恢复的强度或将不会如市场预期一般强劲。个人消费支出：1)虽然21Q1商品消费显示出极为强劲的势头，但我们预计1季度已经是商品消费高点，后续将随着补贴退潮而逐步回落;2)服务业消费将继续随着疫情缓和而渐进式恢复，但3月以来全球疫情有所反弹，特别是在欧洲国家以及新兴国家，同时美国本土及海外国家传染性更强的病毒变种的传播也将影响后续服务业恢复强度。投资：1)21Q1非住宅投资的改善主要驱动力为经济向好预期，而从当前时点来看，全球疫情是决定经济恢复强度的核心因素，需要关注后续疫情进展;2)住宅投资将随着地产市场的逐步降温而走低;3)私人库存变动，即补库存的力度将依赖于美国供需撕裂的现状是否能够缓和，从当前来看，或要等到9月失业补贴结束之后，美国供需两端才能出现显著的弥合趋势，进而带动库存投资。政府支出和净出口：1)随着失业补贴在2、3季度的持续发放，政府支出预计将在4季度前持续对GDP同比形成正贡献，而如果美国就业计划或美国家庭计划能够在年内落地，也将提振政府支出水平;净出口方面，出口将依赖于美国工业生产恢复的进度，如上文所说，或要到4季度才能得到提振，进口则恰恰相反，将随着今年后期供需缺口的收窄而回落到正常水平。二、全球宏观数据：美国新增确诊病例下降1.疫情：美国新增确诊病例下降本周美国新增确诊病例下降。美国新增确诊7日平均下降至5.3万人以上。截止4月29日，全球新冠疫情累计确诊超过1.5亿，累计死亡病例314万人，累计康复病例1.2亿人。本周四天(4月27日-4月30日)美国、英国分别新增确诊病例22万人和0.9万人。截止4月28日，全球范围内平均每百人接种新冠疫苗最多的是以色列，达每百人121.1针，美国每百人70.2针，英国每百人70.9针。截止4月28日，全球范围内完全接种疫苗的人占人口比例最高的是以色列，达58.7%，美国、英国分别为29.3%、20.7%。2.需求：日本零售销售同比大幅回升日本零售销售和批发销售同比均大幅上行。日本3月零售销售指数同比5.3%，其中零售中纺织服装同比15.8%，3月批发销售指数同比1.0%。韩国3月零售销售同比持续增长，半耐用品消费大幅增长。韩国3月零售销售同比较上月上升3.5个百分点至13.5%，其中半耐用品消费增速最快，同比35.5%;耐用品同比13.6%，非耐用品同比6.5%。3.供给与就业：美国耐用品新订单同环比均上升美国耐用品库存上升，新订单增速同环比均上升。3月美国耐用品库存达4318.4亿美元，环比上升1.0%，同比增长1.7%。美国3月耐用品新订单环比上升0.5%，同比大幅上升25%。日本3月失业率下降至2.6%。3月日本失业率较上月下降0.3个百分点至2.6%。韩国工业生产指数同环比均上升，工业持续回升。韩国3月工业生产指数同比上升5.7%，环比上升0.8%至112.6。美国工业材料生产持续上升。1)截止4月24日当周，美国周度粗钢产量同比上升43.6%，产能利用率较上周小幅上升0.4个百分点至78.4%;2)截止4月23日，美国炼油厂可运营能力利用率上升0.4个百分点至85.4%。美国当周初请失业金人数小幅下降，持续申领失业金人数小幅上升。4月24日当周美国初请失业金人数达55.3万人，环比上周下降1.3万人;4月17日当周持续申领失业金人数达366万人，环比上升0.9万人。4.贸易：美国3月进出口同比均大幅上升美国3月进出口同比均大幅上升。美国3月出口增速较上月大幅上升16.5个百分点至11.5%，进口同比20.6%。美国3月份商品贸易差额为-905.9亿美元。5.通胀和大宗商品：油价小幅上行4月28日当周EIA原油库存上升900万桶，美国原油产量小幅下降10万桶/日至1090万桶/日。截止4月29日，WTI原油周均价上升至63.2美元/桶;布油周均价上升至66.6美元/桶。6.房地产：美国3月成屋签约销售指数同比上升美国2月标普/CS房价指数连续8个月上涨。2月美国标普/CS房价指数同比上升11.9%至246.0，连续8个月上涨。美国3月成屋签约销售指数同比大幅23.3%，环比1.9%。日本3月新屋开工、营建订单大幅上行。日本3月新屋开工同比1.5%，环比18.1%，3月营建订单数同比12.5%，环比192.7%，涨幅达到近一年最高。美国5年期抵押贷款利率下降，15年期、30年期抵押贷款利率上升。截止4月29日当周，5年期抵押贷款利率下降0.2个百分点至2.6%，15年期、30年期抵押贷款利率分别上升至2.3%和3.0%。截止4月23日当周，美国MBA市场指数下降18.2至706.6，房市热度小幅回落。7.货币政策和汇率：美元指数下跌，黄金价格基本稳定本周美联储议息会议召开，鲍威尔发言偏鸽，美元指数下跌，黄金价格基本稳定。当地时间4月28日，美联储公布议息会议声明，鲍威尔在会后新闻发布会上表示看到实质性进展仍需一些时间，在此之前会维持当前的资产购买规模，现在还未到讨论Taper的时间，美元指数持续下行。截至4月29日，美元指数报收90.6140，较上周下行0.7%;欧元、英镑兑美元汇率(英镑汇率数据截至28日)分别报收1.2129、1.3906，分别较上周升值0.7%、贬值0.2%;由于加拿大央行率先Taper，加元走强，报收1.2292，较上周升值1.7%。本周伦敦金周均价1774.8美元/盎司，较上周基本稳定，同比涨幅较上周下行1.2pct至3.6%。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"UBmain":0.9,".DJI":0.9,"ZBmain":0.9,"ZNmain":0.9,"ZTmain":0.9,"ZFmain":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1149,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":101197072,"gmtCreate":1619856491896,"gmtModify":1704335809145,"author":{"id":"3573688531814941","authorId":"3573688531814941","name":"ccssyy","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/788037228f49cc166fdc5223f0073775","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3573688531814941","idStr":"3573688531814941"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"?&nbsp;","listText":"?&nbsp;","text":"?","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/101197072","repostId":"2131556829","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1020,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0}],"hots":[{"id":168125845,"gmtCreate":1623967496187,"gmtModify":1703824727038,"author":{"id":"3573688531814941","authorId":"3573688531814941","name":"ccssyy","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/788037228f49cc166fdc5223f0073775","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3573688531814941","authorIdStr":"3573688531814941"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"？","listText":"？","text":"？","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":4,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/168125845","repostId":"1111690771","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1111690771","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1623935139,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1111690771?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2021-06-17 21:05","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"Hawkish Signal! The Federal Reserve is gradually changing its face, what about the property market and stock market?","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1111690771","media":"杠杆游戏","summary":"全球瞩目，美国是否加息，何时加息？\n当地时间6月16日，美联储发布经济预测和政策声明。美联储分别上调了对2021年的美国经济及通胀预期，而一同公布的点阵图则显示，有超过半数的FOMC委员给出了提前加息","content":"<p>Global attention, whether the United States is rate hike, and when will it be rate hike?</p><p>On June 16, local time, the Federal Reserve issued an economic forecast and policy statement. The Federal Reserve raised its forecasts for the U.S. economy and inflation in 2021 respectively, and the dot plot released together showed that more than half of the FOMC members gave expectations for advance rate hike. The median forecast suggested that the Fed would rate hike 2 times before 2023.</p><p>Interest rates may rise from 0.1% to 0.6%.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d41cae1274b855b1881c45df621f92f1\" tg-width=\"650\" tg-height=\"248\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>Overall, the Fed's concerns about prices have increased, and hawkish signals are beginning to emerge. What impact will this have on China's stock market and property market? Let's talk about the leverage game according to the details of this interest rate meeting.</p><p><b>1. The hawkish turn signal deserves attention!</b></p><p>Thirteen of the 18 committee members support at least one rate hike before the end of 2023. The Federal Reserve is more confident in the U.S. economy. They believe that U.S. GDP will grow by 7.0% in 2021, compared with the forecast of 6.5% at the March meeting.</p><p>The Federal Reserve also raised its real GDP forecast for 2023 to 2.4% from the previous forecast of 2.2%. With the better recovery of the economy, price and monetary policy issues naturally come.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/66259bd1ce43d9289e0638c6cb914df7\" tg-width=\"650\" tg-height=\"257\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>Huatai Futures made a statistic, and the leverage game felt very meaningful, and thanked you.</p><p>The dot plot of the rate hike path of Fed officials shows that by the end of 2023, the Fed may rate hike twice.</p><p>The June dot plot of the FOMC (the Federal Reserve's Open Market Committee) showed that 13 of the 18 members supported at least one rate hike before the end of 2023, compared with 7 in March.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/13dc861d49dae295f65371658fe551af\" tg-width=\"528\" tg-height=\"540\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>Chart source |<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/000686\">Northeast Securities</a>(Thanks hereby)</p><p>Eleven members are expected to hold at least two rate hike by the end of 2023, and seven members are expected to start rate hike in 2022. In March, it was 4.</p><p>The median dot plot forecast in March implies that there will be no rate hike until the end of 2023.</p><p><b>2. Federal Reserve Chairman Powell generally believes that it is too early to discuss rate hike. The key is why?</b></p><p>Of course, the Federal Reserve is preparing to adjust the excess reserve rate (IOER) from 0.1% to 0.15%. That is to say, in the face of excess liquidity, the Federal Reserve is actually making appropriate moves.</p><p>However, it is very clear that it will continue to increase its holdings of at least $80 billion in Treasury Bond and at least $40 billion in mortgage-backed securities every month until substantial progress is made on the goals of full employment and price stability.</p><p>Here, the leverage game needs to be said more. What is the goal of full employment and price stability?</p><p>For example, the number of new non-farm employment in the United States in April and May was 278,000 and 559,000 respectively, both lower than expected. Compared with the pre-black swan level, the number of employed people in May still decreased by about 7.6 million.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8c8c7ecd06543dcd0ded387b77673869\" tg-width=\"832\" tg-height=\"343\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>Chart source | Northeast Securities (thanks hereby)</p><p>The Fed expects the unemployment rate to fall to 4.5% in 2021 (the same as its March forecast), and to 3.8% and 3.5% in 2022 and 2023, respectively-at this point, returning to very low levels, probably considered qualified;</p><p>At the same time, Powell believes that inflation may remain high in the coming months before it eases-the price indicator should be considered to be up to standard.</p><p>Therefore, my conclusion is that what Americans care about is the economy, simply put, employment indicators.</p><p><b>3. The normalization of U.S. monetary policy may accelerate, which deserves attention, but the stock market should be worry-free for the time being.</b></p><p>Judging from the above changes in the number of Fed members' attitudes towards rate hike, the leverage game can basically be considered that the pace of rate hike is much faster than before.</p><p>While there is no signal from rate hike yet, an early arrival is possible. At the same time, Powell is ready to discuss reducing bond purchases, and the hawks are undoubtedly revealed. Then the US dollar will be supported in the short term, and the RMB exchange rate will mainly fluctuate.</p><p>But because liquidity in China and the United States is generally loose. For example, our M2 was 227.54 trillion yuan at the end of May, a year-on-year increase of 8.3%, and the growth rate was 0.2 percentage points higher than that at the end of last month.</p><p>At the same time, no matter the central banks of China and the United States, the communication with the market is relatively full and transparent, and no one will suddenly change monetary policy.</p><p>Therefore, the stock market will not panic as a whole, and the trend downward trend will not occur.</p><p><b>4. Domestic demand is still a bit weak, and external demand supports high production boom. Real estate and investment should not be too cold at this time.</b></p><p>June 16 was a very interesting day. The United States announced some statements of their interest rate meeting, and we released a number of economic indicators.</p><p>We can see that industrial production has actually weakened slightly, and external demand is still an important support.</p><p>According to the statistics of Beijing Capital Securities, for example, the two-year average growth rate of industrial added value above designated size in May was 6.6%, a slight decrease of 0.2 percentage points from the previous value.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d083afd587e6aa1242d24c96c4ad505e\" tg-width=\"477\" tg-height=\"545\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>Chart source | Beijing Capital Securities (thanks hereby)</p><p>The compound growth rate of export delivery value has dropped significantly, echoing the sharp drop in exports in May. However, without the high growth of exports, industrial data will decline even more.</p><p>Generally speaking, external demand has peaked and fallen, and production and exports will have a slight impact in the next step.</p><p>In terms of fixed investment, it increased by 15.4% year-on-year. However, the newly started housing area has experienced negative growth for two consecutive months, and the completed area has accelerated significantly this month, turning positive to 5.0% year-on-year. Real estate investment is still supported in the short term, and there is certain pressure for a long time.</p><p>At the same time, with the strengthening of debt management, there is a high probability of fixed investment falling.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/140e47518613dba5d257d583f1f9f4ec\" tg-width=\"554\" tg-height=\"298\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>Social retail sales increased by 12.4% in May, slightly lower than market expectations of 12.8%, and the previous value was 17.7%.</p><p>Generally speaking, the leverage game believes that domestic demand is so-so and exports have peaked. Then, real estate suppression is suppression and cannot be made too ugly.</p><p><b>5. It is worth noting whether there is a liquidity inflection point in the United States in the third quarter.</b></p><p>Regardless of global housing prices, commodities, or the U.S. stock market, this round of surge in asset prices is essentially dominated by liquidity.</p><p>Now the question is, is there an inflection point in U.S. liquidity in the third quarter? As mentioned in the leverage game above, the Federal Reserve has signals of shrinking, and the excess reserve interest rate has increased slightly.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c6a294dbe7d55d78d322cf321fc22590\" tg-width=\"556\" tg-height=\"431\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>Chart source |<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/601878\">Zheshang Securities</a>(Thanks hereby)</p><p>In the third quarter, the leverage game believes that the first amplitude is small, and the second is a test. At the same time, the last round of cards played by China's central bank has proved that \"I am the mainstay\"-as long as the United States does not rate hike, the world trend of funds returning to the United States to pursue high returns should not come.</p><p>From this perspective alone, in 2021, my country's stock market will not be bearish; The property market only shows an extremely strict attitude towards speculation. As mentioned above, economic stability still needs it.</p><p>It should be noted that in the third quarter, such as July and August, the Federal Reserve began to formally discuss cutting QE, and began cutting QE at the end of 2021 or early 2022. These are basically within market expectations.</p><p>Nevertheless, this is at least a constraint on the monetary policy of any country.</p><p><b>6. Conclusion: The stock market will basically not be affected by the United States in 2021, and the property market will be dominated by me.</b>The former leverage game means, don't worry about liquidity.</p><p>What I mean by the latter is that the property market will crack down on speculation throughout 2021. However, the local trading ability of the property market is becoming more and more proficient, and it has always had its own way to ensure a certain price and sales volume.</p><p>Besides, the water hasn't decreased.</p>","source":"lsy1574902984297","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Hawkish Signal! 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The Federal Reserve is gradually changing its face, what about the property market and stock market?\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">杠杆游戏</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-06-17 21:05</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>Global attention, whether the United States is rate hike, and when will it be rate hike?</p><p>On June 16, local time, the Federal Reserve issued an economic forecast and policy statement. The Federal Reserve raised its forecasts for the U.S. economy and inflation in 2021 respectively, and the dot plot released together showed that more than half of the FOMC members gave expectations for advance rate hike. The median forecast suggested that the Fed would rate hike 2 times before 2023.</p><p>Interest rates may rise from 0.1% to 0.6%.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d41cae1274b855b1881c45df621f92f1\" tg-width=\"650\" tg-height=\"248\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>Overall, the Fed's concerns about prices have increased, and hawkish signals are beginning to emerge. What impact will this have on China's stock market and property market? Let's talk about the leverage game according to the details of this interest rate meeting.</p><p><b>1. The hawkish turn signal deserves attention!</b></p><p>Thirteen of the 18 committee members support at least one rate hike before the end of 2023. The Federal Reserve is more confident in the U.S. economy. They believe that U.S. GDP will grow by 7.0% in 2021, compared with the forecast of 6.5% at the March meeting.</p><p>The Federal Reserve also raised its real GDP forecast for 2023 to 2.4% from the previous forecast of 2.2%. With the better recovery of the economy, price and monetary policy issues naturally come.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/66259bd1ce43d9289e0638c6cb914df7\" tg-width=\"650\" tg-height=\"257\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>Huatai Futures made a statistic, and the leverage game felt very meaningful, and thanked you.</p><p>The dot plot of the rate hike path of Fed officials shows that by the end of 2023, the Fed may rate hike twice.</p><p>The June dot plot of the FOMC (the Federal Reserve's Open Market Committee) showed that 13 of the 18 members supported at least one rate hike before the end of 2023, compared with 7 in March.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/13dc861d49dae295f65371658fe551af\" tg-width=\"528\" tg-height=\"540\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>Chart source |<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/000686\">Northeast Securities</a>(Thanks hereby)</p><p>Eleven members are expected to hold at least two rate hike by the end of 2023, and seven members are expected to start rate hike in 2022. In March, it was 4.</p><p>The median dot plot forecast in March implies that there will be no rate hike until the end of 2023.</p><p><b>2. Federal Reserve Chairman Powell generally believes that it is too early to discuss rate hike. The key is why?</b></p><p>Of course, the Federal Reserve is preparing to adjust the excess reserve rate (IOER) from 0.1% to 0.15%. That is to say, in the face of excess liquidity, the Federal Reserve is actually making appropriate moves.</p><p>However, it is very clear that it will continue to increase its holdings of at least $80 billion in Treasury Bond and at least $40 billion in mortgage-backed securities every month until substantial progress is made on the goals of full employment and price stability.</p><p>Here, the leverage game needs to be said more. What is the goal of full employment and price stability?</p><p>For example, the number of new non-farm employment in the United States in April and May was 278,000 and 559,000 respectively, both lower than expected. Compared with the pre-black swan level, the number of employed people in May still decreased by about 7.6 million.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8c8c7ecd06543dcd0ded387b77673869\" tg-width=\"832\" tg-height=\"343\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>Chart source | Northeast Securities (thanks hereby)</p><p>The Fed expects the unemployment rate to fall to 4.5% in 2021 (the same as its March forecast), and to 3.8% and 3.5% in 2022 and 2023, respectively-at this point, returning to very low levels, probably considered qualified;</p><p>At the same time, Powell believes that inflation may remain high in the coming months before it eases-the price indicator should be considered to be up to standard.</p><p>Therefore, my conclusion is that what Americans care about is the economy, simply put, employment indicators.</p><p><b>3. The normalization of U.S. monetary policy may accelerate, which deserves attention, but the stock market should be worry-free for the time being.</b></p><p>Judging from the above changes in the number of Fed members' attitudes towards rate hike, the leverage game can basically be considered that the pace of rate hike is much faster than before.</p><p>While there is no signal from rate hike yet, an early arrival is possible. At the same time, Powell is ready to discuss reducing bond purchases, and the hawks are undoubtedly revealed. Then the US dollar will be supported in the short term, and the RMB exchange rate will mainly fluctuate.</p><p>But because liquidity in China and the United States is generally loose. For example, our M2 was 227.54 trillion yuan at the end of May, a year-on-year increase of 8.3%, and the growth rate was 0.2 percentage points higher than that at the end of last month.</p><p>At the same time, no matter the central banks of China and the United States, the communication with the market is relatively full and transparent, and no one will suddenly change monetary policy.</p><p>Therefore, the stock market will not panic as a whole, and the trend downward trend will not occur.</p><p><b>4. Domestic demand is still a bit weak, and external demand supports high production boom. Real estate and investment should not be too cold at this time.</b></p><p>June 16 was a very interesting day. The United States announced some statements of their interest rate meeting, and we released a number of economic indicators.</p><p>We can see that industrial production has actually weakened slightly, and external demand is still an important support.</p><p>According to the statistics of Beijing Capital Securities, for example, the two-year average growth rate of industrial added value above designated size in May was 6.6%, a slight decrease of 0.2 percentage points from the previous value.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d083afd587e6aa1242d24c96c4ad505e\" tg-width=\"477\" tg-height=\"545\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>Chart source | Beijing Capital Securities (thanks hereby)</p><p>The compound growth rate of export delivery value has dropped significantly, echoing the sharp drop in exports in May. However, without the high growth of exports, industrial data will decline even more.</p><p>Generally speaking, external demand has peaked and fallen, and production and exports will have a slight impact in the next step.</p><p>In terms of fixed investment, it increased by 15.4% year-on-year. However, the newly started housing area has experienced negative growth for two consecutive months, and the completed area has accelerated significantly this month, turning positive to 5.0% year-on-year. Real estate investment is still supported in the short term, and there is certain pressure for a long time.</p><p>At the same time, with the strengthening of debt management, there is a high probability of fixed investment falling.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/140e47518613dba5d257d583f1f9f4ec\" tg-width=\"554\" tg-height=\"298\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>Social retail sales increased by 12.4% in May, slightly lower than market expectations of 12.8%, and the previous value was 17.7%.</p><p>Generally speaking, the leverage game believes that domestic demand is so-so and exports have peaked. Then, real estate suppression is suppression and cannot be made too ugly.</p><p><b>5. It is worth noting whether there is a liquidity inflection point in the United States in the third quarter.</b></p><p>Regardless of global housing prices, commodities, or the U.S. stock market, this round of surge in asset prices is essentially dominated by liquidity.</p><p>Now the question is, is there an inflection point in U.S. liquidity in the third quarter? As mentioned in the leverage game above, the Federal Reserve has signals of shrinking, and the excess reserve interest rate has increased slightly.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c6a294dbe7d55d78d322cf321fc22590\" tg-width=\"556\" tg-height=\"431\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>Chart source |<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/601878\">Zheshang Securities</a>(Thanks hereby)</p><p>In the third quarter, the leverage game believes that the first amplitude is small, and the second is a test. At the same time, the last round of cards played by China's central bank has proved that \"I am the mainstay\"-as long as the United States does not rate hike, the world trend of funds returning to the United States to pursue high returns should not come.</p><p>From this perspective alone, in 2021, my country's stock market will not be bearish; The property market only shows an extremely strict attitude towards speculation. As mentioned above, economic stability still needs it.</p><p>It should be noted that in the third quarter, such as July and August, the Federal Reserve began to formally discuss cutting QE, and began cutting QE at the end of 2021 or early 2022. These are basically within market expectations.</p><p>Nevertheless, this is at least a constraint on the monetary policy of any country.</p><p><b>6. Conclusion: The stock market will basically not be affected by the United States in 2021, and the property market will be dominated by me.</b>The former leverage game means, don't worry about liquidity.</p><p>What I mean by the latter is that the property market will crack down on speculation throughout 2021. However, the local trading ability of the property market is becoming more and more proficient, and it has always had its own way to ensure a certain price and sales volume.</p><p>Besides, the water hasn't decreased.</p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> source：<a href=\"https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s/yTYYzzbQ08ymsKDOuBB5dw\">杠杆游戏</a></p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f09c44f289c2f0d40610768fe6661fab","relate_stocks":{"513500":"标普500ETF","OEF":"标普100指数ETF-iShares",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite","SDOW":"三倍做空道指30ETF-ProShares","PSQ":"做空纳斯达克100指数ETF-ProShares","TQQQ":"纳指三倍做多ETF","QQQ":"纳指100ETF","QLD":"2倍做多纳斯达克100指数ETF-ProShares",".DJI":"道琼斯","UDOW":"三倍做多道指30ETF-ProShares","SPY":"标普500ETF","DOG":"道指ETF-ProShares做空","QID":"两倍做空纳斯达克指数ETF-ProShares","OEX":"标普100","SDS":"两倍做空标普500 ETF-ProShares","DJX":"1/100道琼斯","IVV":"标普500ETF-iShares"},"source_url":"https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s/yTYYzzbQ08ymsKDOuBB5dw","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1111690771","content_text":"全球瞩目，美国是否加息，何时加息？\n当地时间6月16日，美联储发布经济预测和政策声明。美联储分别上调了对2021年的美国经济及通胀预期，而一同公布的点阵图则显示，有超过半数的FOMC委员给出了提前加息的预期，中位数预测暗示，美联储将在2023年前加息2次。\n利率或从0.1%升至0.6%。\n\n总体来说，美联储对物价的担忧提高，鹰派信号初现。这对我国股市、楼市会有什么影响，杠杆游戏根据此次议息会议的细节，展开谈一谈。\n1、鹰派转向信号值得重视！\n18位委员中有13人支持在2023年底前，至少加息1次。美联储对美国经济比较有信心，他们认为2021年美国GDP将增长7.0%，而3月份会议的预测为6.5%。\n美联储还将2023年的实际GDP预测，从之前预期的2.2%上调至2.4%。伴随经济的较好复苏，物价和货币政策问题自然来了。\n\n华泰期货做了一个统计，杠杆游戏觉得非常有意义，并致谢。\n美联储官员的加息路径点阵图显示，到2023年底，美联储或许将加息2次。\nFOMC（美联储的公开市场委员会）6月点阵图显示，18 位委员中有13人支持在2023 年底前至少加息1次，而3月为7位。\n\n图表来源|东北证券（特此感谢）\n11位委员预计到2023年底至少加息2次，7名委员预计在2022年开始加息。3月为4位。\n而3月份的点阵图中位数预测值暗示，到2023年底前不会加息。\n2、美联储主席鲍威尔总体认为，现在讨论加息还为时过早，关键是为什么？\n当然，美联储准备将超额准备金利率（IOER）从0.1%，调整至0.15%，也就是说，面对流动性过剩，美联储其实也在适当出手。\n不过说得很清楚，将继续每月增持至少800亿美元的国债，以及至少400亿美元的住房抵押贷款支持证券，直到充分就业和物价稳定目标取得实质性进展。\n这里杠杆游戏要多一句嘴，什么算充分就业和物价稳定目标？\n比如美国4月、5月新增非农就业人口分别为27.8万和55.9万，均低于预期。与黑天鹅前水平相比，5月就业人数依然减少了约760万。\n\n图表来源|东北证券（特此感谢）\n美联储预计2021年失业率将降至4.5%（与3月的预测持平），2022年和2023年失业率将分别降至3.8%和3.5%——到此，回到非常低的水平，大概算是合格；\n同时鲍威尔认为通货膨胀可能在未来几个月继续居高不下，然后才会有所缓和——物价指标应该算达标。\n所以，我的结论就是，美国人在乎的是经济，简单说就是就业指标。\n3、美国货币政策正常化可能加快，值得重视，但股市应该暂时无忧。\n从上文美联储委员对加息的态度人数变化看，杠杆游戏基本可以认为，加息节奏较此前大大加快。\n虽然目前还没有加息的信号，但提前到来是可能的。同时，鲍威尔已经准备讨论缩减购债，鹰派显露无疑，那么美元短期内有支撑，人民币汇率震荡为主。\n但因为中美流动性总体宽松。如我们的M2，5月末227.54万亿元，同比增长8.3%，增速比上月末高0.2个百分点。\n同时无论中美央行，与市场的沟通都较为充分、透明，谁都不会货币政策突然转向。\n所以股市总体不会恐慌，趋势性下跌不会出现。\n4、内需还是有点弱，外需支撑生产高景气，房地产和投资这个时候不能太凉。\n6月16日是很有意思的一天，美国通报他们的议息会议部分声明，我们发布了多项经济指标。\n我们可以看，工业生产其实略走弱，外需仍是重要支撑。\n首创证券统计发现，比如5月规上工业增加值两年平均增速为6.6%，较前值略降0.2个百分点。\n\n图表来源|首创证券（特此感谢）\n出口交货值复合增速有较大回落，与5月出口大幅回落相呼应，但如果没有出口的高增长，工业数据会下滑更多。\n总体来说，外需见顶回落，生产和出口下一步略有影响是一定的。\n而固投方面，同比增长15.4%。但房屋新开工面积连续两个月负增长，竣工面积本月大幅提速，同比转正为5.0%，短期内房地产投资仍有支撑，长期存在一定的压力。\n同时债务管理的加强，固定投资的回落大概率。\n\n5月社零销售增长12.4%，小幅低于市场预期的12.8%，前值为17.7%。\n总的来说，杠杆游戏认为，内需马马虎虎，出口见顶，那么，房地产打压归打压，不能搞得太难看。\n5、三季度美国是否有流动性拐点，值得注意。\n无论全球房价，还是大宗商品，以及美国股市，资产价格大涨本质这一轮都是流动性主导的。\n现在问题来了，三季度美国流动性是否有拐点？上文杠杆游戏写了，美联储有缩量的信号，超额准备金利率略有提高。\n\n图表来源|浙商证券（特此感谢）\n3季度杠杆游戏认为，第一幅度小，第二是个试探，同时我国央行上一轮的出牌已经证明，“以我为主”——只要美国不加息，资金回美追求高收益的世界趋势，应该不会到来。\n单这个角度说，2021年，我国股市不至于看空；楼市，只是对投机表现出异常严厉的态度，如上所述，经济的稳定还需要它。\n需要注意的是，3季度，比如7、8月，美联储始正式讨论削减QE，2021年底或2022年初开始削减QE，这些基本已在市场预期内。\n尽管如此，这对任何国家的货币政策，起码都是掣肘。\n6、结论：2021年股市基本不会受美国影响，楼市以我为主。前者杠杆游戏的意思是，不要担心流动性。\n后者我的意思是，楼市打击投机，将贯穿2021年始终。但地方对楼市的操盘能力，也是越来越纯熟，保障一定的价格和销量，从来都有自己办法。\n何况，水又没减少。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"513500":0.9,"IVV":0.9,"QID":0.9,"DOG":0.9,"MNQmain":0.9,"NQmain":0.9,"TQQQ":0.9,"SDS":0.9,"OEF":0.9,".IXIC":0.9,"ESmain":0.9,"SDOW":0.9,"PSQ":0.9,"QLD":0.9,"OEX":0.9,"SPY":0.9,"DJX":0.9,"QQQ":0.9,"UDOW":0.9,".DJI":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":3447,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":127962201,"gmtCreate":1624819136703,"gmtModify":1703845506737,"author":{"id":"3573688531814941","authorId":"3573688531814941","name":"ccssyy","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/788037228f49cc166fdc5223f0073775","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3573688531814941","authorIdStr":"3573688531814941"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"111","listText":"111","text":"111","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":2,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/127962201","repostId":"1192656485","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1192656485","kind":"news","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"致力于提供最及时的财经资讯，最专业的解读分析，覆盖宏观经济、金融机构、A股市场、上市公司、投资理财等财经领域。","home_visible":1,"media_name":"券商中国","id":"9","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d482d56459984e8c86a6a137295b3c4f"},"pubTimestamp":1624760703,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1192656485?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2021-06-27 10:25","market":"sh","language":"zh","title":"The brokerage strategy will stage a war of words! The \"leader lies down and wins\" strategy fails?","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1192656485","media":"券商中国","summary":"2021年上半年即将过去，多家券商的年中策略会正紧锣密鼓的进行。围绕下半年A股走势、投资风格和资产配置，各家券商展开了一场看不见的“唇枪舌战”。\n去年11月至今年2月中旬，大市值白马股屡创超额收益并带","content":"<p>The first half of 2021 is coming to an end, and the mid-year strategy meetings of many securities firms are in full swing. Focusing on the trend, investment style and asset allocation of A shares in the second half of the year, various securities firms launched an invisible \"war of words\".</p><p>From November last year to mid-February this year, white horse stocks with large market capitalization repeatedly hit excess returns and drove market valuations upward; Since early March this year, the market value of many white horse stocks has experienced a sharp correction, and even hit a new low this year's stock price, causing many \"top fund managers\" to be on the verge of \"myth shattering\".</p><p>For this reason, the white horse stocks represented by the Mao Index also experienced a \"fight\" phenomenon at the mid-year brokerage strategy meeting. Some chief strategists of securities firms believe that the simple \"leader lying down and winning\" strategy fails, and growth should be the first priority in allocation; Some chief strategists of securities firms said that the long-term bull characteristics of leading companies will become more and more obvious, and the correction since the Spring Festival is only a self-correction of cost performance, which is still worth allocating.</p><p>It is worth mentioning that since the beginning of this year, the market style and epidemic control situation have changed. Looking back at some strategies six months ago, many of them have gone astray or even overturned.</p><p><b>Is the Mao index leader still worth embracing?</b></p><p>A-share investors still remember the surge in market value of leading companies in various industries since November last year, and affectionately call them \"Industry + Mao\".</p><p>However, the strategy of \"winning by lying down\" has gradually failed since March this year, such as \"real estate mao\"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/000002\">Vanke A</a>, \"Insurance Mao\"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/601318\">China Ping An</a>, \"Cement Mao\"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/600585\">Conch Cement</a>, and \"home appliance mao\"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/000651\">Gree Electric</a>When stock prices pulled back one after another, some stock prices even hit new lows for a period of time.</p><p>On June 22, Chen Guo, chief analyst of Essence Securities, said at the mid-year strategy meeting that the current main line of the market is changing. Since March, the second-tier leaders of some core tracks have performed better than the first-tier leaders of some traditional tracks. In the future, the simple \"leader lying down and winning\" strategy in the market will fail, and the logical growth of configuration will rank first, and the core of the market will also return to \"long track + high prosperity\".</p><p>Chen Guo further pointed out that in recent years, A-shares have gradually emerged from a number of hard technology strength companies with rapid asset expansion, rapid performance improvement, and continuous strengthening of global competitiveness. From an investment perspective, the market outlook for semiconductors, new energy, medical services, military industry, new materials, labor<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/5RE.SI\">smart</a>And other industries deserve special attention.</p><p>On June 23,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/600837\">Haitong Securities</a>The 2021 medium-term investment strategy report meeting was held in Beijing.<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/06837\">Haitong Securities</a>Xun Yugen, chief economist, believes that the differentiation trend of A-share stocks and funds will continue, and the Matthew effect of polarization of my country's stock market will be more significant in the future; In terms of market value structure, the ultra-large market value group has continued to dominate since 2017.</p><p>For the second half of 2021, Xun Yugen said that only by keeping upright can we win. He further explained that the first echelon of ultra-large market capitalization companies represented by the Mao Index are still worth allocating, but under the general trend of industrial upgrading, intelligent manufacturing in the medium and large market is the key to obtaining excess returns.</p><p>Xun Yugen believes that in the future, with the gradual advancement of institutionalization and internationalization of A-shares, the long-term bull characteristics of leading companies represented by Mao Index will become more and more obvious, and the correction since the Spring Festival is only a self-correction of cost performance.</p><p>\"Surprisingly, the mid-to-large market is more cost-effective. As the economy gradually gets on the right track, the relative advantage of ultra-large-cap stocks represented by the Mao Index in fundamentals will not be as extreme as last year. Referring to US stocks, the second A-share market value of 20-80 billion in the future is expected to further grow bigger and stronger.\" Xun Yugen said.</p><p><b>Allocating growth stocks has become a consensus</b></p><p><b>Brokerage Chinese reporters have noticed that the core assets that have been won in the past few years are no longer cheap, and they are facing shocks and differentiation in terms of valuation and profitability. Many brokerages have proposed to focus on growth stocks in their medium-term strategy meetings.</b></p><p>Mid-June,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/601377\">Industrial Securities</a>At the mid-term strategy meeting, Zhang Yidong, global chief strategist of Industrial Securities, said that in the second half of the year, the domestic investment style was dominated by growth stocks and supplemented by value stocks. The sharp differentiation between growth and value has converged, and the relative cost performance of value stocks has decreased.</p><p>Zhang Yidong said that science and technology innovation will lead the \"future core assets\". Since the beginning of this year, foreign positions have undergone obvious changes, and science and technology innovation board has become the new favorite. Secondly, the \"future core assets\" represented by science and technology innovation board and Growth Enterprise Market are relatively cost-effective. The PE ratio of CSI 500/CSI 300 and the PE ratio of GEM and CSI 300 are at historical lows.</p><p>In early June,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/600030\">CITIC Securities</a>At the medium-term strategy meeting, it was proposed that A-shares will enter a resonant upward period in the \"trilogy\" of slow growth in the second half of the year, and there will be more room in the fourth quarter. It is estimated that the net inflow of A-shares will reach 220 billion yuan in the second half of the year. Among them, under the expectation of RMB appreciation, foreign capital inflows may continue to exceed expectations.</p><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/06030\">CITIC Securities</a>He said that in terms of configuration, it is recommended to downplay cyclical thinking, focus on growth in the third quarter, and increase large consumption in the fourth quarter. Among them, the growth category includes growth manufacturing (new energy, semiconductor materials, national defense security and technology-enabled manufacturing, etc.) and growth consumption (cosmetics, medical beauty, sportswear and new tobacco, etc.); Large consumption mainly includes e-commerce, online consumption with a high proportion (branded clothing, beauty cosmetics and daily chemicals), and optional durable consumer goods (home appliances, automobiles and 3C electronics).</p><p>On June 16,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/601995\">CICC</a>At the investment strategy meeting in the second half of 2021,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/03908\">CICC</a>Chief strategist Wang Hanfeng said that looking forward to the second half of the year, although the market is currently paying more attention to inflation or stagflation, the impact of the epidemic is not only reflected on the supply side, but also on the demand side. The recovery of China's consumer demand is currently weak. In the second half of the year, the market may gradually pay more attention to the sustainability of growth and possible policy adjustments. The market style is expected to gradually return to the \"growth\" style.</p><p>Wang Hanfeng said that considering factors such as growth, valuation, policies and overseas markets, the overall performance of the Chinese market in the second half of the year may be neutral, but the structure is relatively optimistic, and the style rotation of value outperforming growth may have come to an end; At the allocation level, it is suggested to \"light index, heavy structure, and partial growth\", and re-emphasize the general trend of \"new economy\" such as China's industrial upgrading and consumption upgrading after the market consolidation in the first half of the year.</p><p><b>Looking back at the strategy report six months ago</b></p><p><b>The brokerage strategy meeting is a stage for brokerages to show professional research and judgment. Almost every brokerage will hold it at the end of the year, in the middle of the year or even quarterly. However, the change of macro environment and the style of A-share market sometimes makes the strategies of some securities firms slightly embarrassing.</b></p><p>Looking back at 2020, the market first \"epidemic\" and then rose, and rebounded in shock. On December 31, 2020, the three major A-share stock indexes closed in the red across the board, and the Shanghai Composite Index broke through the year's high of 3,465.73 points, setting a new high since February 6, 2018. For the whole year of 2020, the Shanghai Composite Index rose by 13.87%, the Shenzhen Component Index rose by 38.73%, and the ChiNext Index rose by 64.96%. Brokerages and Public Offering of Fund have achieved good results as a whole.</p><p>Most securities firms will put their strategies for 2021 at the end of 2020 and have greater confidence in 2021.</p><p>2021, as the first year of the \"14th Five-Year Plan\" and the first year after the \"thirtieth\" of A-shares, has shown a new look in terms of system, investor structure, and the quality of the development of listed companies, and the outside world is all concerned about novel coronavirus pneumonia. We have confidence in epidemic control and firmly believe that we can \"open the world map\" again.</p><p>For example, in November 2020,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/600369\">Southwest Securities</a>At the 2021 strategy meeting, the strategy team of Southwest Securities believes that at present, it is in the relay of the third big bull market in the history of A-shares, and the economic recovery continues to be better than expected. At the end of the year, the market is getting better and better, and there are opportunities for cyclical growth.</p><p>Zhu Bin, chief strategist of Southwest Securities, said in an interview with the media that looking forward to the market in 2021, the high point of this bull market is expected to be around 4,000 points. From the perspective of investment structure, investment in the three major fields of manufacturing, real estate and infrastructure has fully recovered.</p><p>Based on the judgment of the long-term, medium-term and short-term economic cycles, as well as the forecast of A-share earnings, valuation, supply and demand,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/601688\">Huatai Securities</a>The strategy team also believes that A-shares will still be on the \"bull back\" in 2021, and the main line of top-down investment is: global reflation and manufacturing investment cycle recovery; Corresponding allocation ideas: trading \"re-inflation\", with bulk as the shield and manufacturing as the spear.</p><p>In December 2020, Dongguan Securities released its A-share investment strategy for the first half of 2021. In its strategy report, the company believes that the global economic situation is expected to usher in a gradual recovery in the first half of 2021, while the domestic economic operation has returned to normal, and domestic demand such as investment and consumption is still supported by policies. The economy will continue to pick up in 2021. It is expected that the annual GDP growth rate is about 7%, showing a pattern of first high and then stable.</p><p>The recurrence of the epidemic and the mutation of the virus are beyond the imagination of some strategic analysts. For example, last December,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/002500\">Shanxi Securities</a>The strategy team believes that the global economy is expected to emerge from the epidemic in 2021, and the establishment of an immune barrier through global vaccines will completely end the epidemic, which will recover significantly and have a positive impact on the equity market. The domestic economy continues to recover, policies have returned to normal in an orderly manner, and manufacturing investment and service consumption have become new driving forces leading the next stage of domestic economic recovery.</p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>The brokerage strategy will stage a war of words! The \"leader lies down and wins\" strategy fails?</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nThe brokerage strategy will stage a war of words! The \"leader lies down and wins\" strategy fails?\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/9\">\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/d482d56459984e8c86a6a137295b3c4f);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">券商中国 </p>\n<p class=\"h-time smaller\">2021-06-27 10:25</p>\n</div>\n</a>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>The first half of 2021 is coming to an end, and the mid-year strategy meetings of many securities firms are in full swing. Focusing on the trend, investment style and asset allocation of A shares in the second half of the year, various securities firms launched an invisible \"war of words\".</p><p>From November last year to mid-February this year, white horse stocks with large market capitalization repeatedly hit excess returns and drove market valuations upward; Since early March this year, the market value of many white horse stocks has experienced a sharp correction, and even hit a new low this year's stock price, causing many \"top fund managers\" to be on the verge of \"myth shattering\".</p><p>For this reason, the white horse stocks represented by the Mao Index also experienced a \"fight\" phenomenon at the mid-year brokerage strategy meeting. Some chief strategists of securities firms believe that the simple \"leader lying down and winning\" strategy fails, and growth should be the first priority in allocation; Some chief strategists of securities firms said that the long-term bull characteristics of leading companies will become more and more obvious, and the correction since the Spring Festival is only a self-correction of cost performance, which is still worth allocating.</p><p>It is worth mentioning that since the beginning of this year, the market style and epidemic control situation have changed. Looking back at some strategies six months ago, many of them have gone astray or even overturned.</p><p><b>Is the Mao index leader still worth embracing?</b></p><p>A-share investors still remember the surge in market value of leading companies in various industries since November last year, and affectionately call them \"Industry + Mao\".</p><p>However, the strategy of \"winning by lying down\" has gradually failed since March this year, such as \"real estate mao\"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/000002\">Vanke A</a>, \"Insurance Mao\"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/601318\">China Ping An</a>, \"Cement Mao\"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/600585\">Conch Cement</a>, and \"home appliance mao\"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/000651\">Gree Electric</a>When stock prices pulled back one after another, some stock prices even hit new lows for a period of time.</p><p>On June 22, Chen Guo, chief analyst of Essence Securities, said at the mid-year strategy meeting that the current main line of the market is changing. Since March, the second-tier leaders of some core tracks have performed better than the first-tier leaders of some traditional tracks. In the future, the simple \"leader lying down and winning\" strategy in the market will fail, and the logical growth of configuration will rank first, and the core of the market will also return to \"long track + high prosperity\".</p><p>Chen Guo further pointed out that in recent years, A-shares have gradually emerged from a number of hard technology strength companies with rapid asset expansion, rapid performance improvement, and continuous strengthening of global competitiveness. From an investment perspective, the market outlook for semiconductors, new energy, medical services, military industry, new materials, labor<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/5RE.SI\">smart</a>And other industries deserve special attention.</p><p>On June 23,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/600837\">Haitong Securities</a>The 2021 medium-term investment strategy report meeting was held in Beijing.<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/06837\">Haitong Securities</a>Xun Yugen, chief economist, believes that the differentiation trend of A-share stocks and funds will continue, and the Matthew effect of polarization of my country's stock market will be more significant in the future; In terms of market value structure, the ultra-large market value group has continued to dominate since 2017.</p><p>For the second half of 2021, Xun Yugen said that only by keeping upright can we win. He further explained that the first echelon of ultra-large market capitalization companies represented by the Mao Index are still worth allocating, but under the general trend of industrial upgrading, intelligent manufacturing in the medium and large market is the key to obtaining excess returns.</p><p>Xun Yugen believes that in the future, with the gradual advancement of institutionalization and internationalization of A-shares, the long-term bull characteristics of leading companies represented by Mao Index will become more and more obvious, and the correction since the Spring Festival is only a self-correction of cost performance.</p><p>\"Surprisingly, the mid-to-large market is more cost-effective. As the economy gradually gets on the right track, the relative advantage of ultra-large-cap stocks represented by the Mao Index in fundamentals will not be as extreme as last year. Referring to US stocks, the second A-share market value of 20-80 billion in the future is expected to further grow bigger and stronger.\" Xun Yugen said.</p><p><b>Allocating growth stocks has become a consensus</b></p><p><b>Brokerage Chinese reporters have noticed that the core assets that have been won in the past few years are no longer cheap, and they are facing shocks and differentiation in terms of valuation and profitability. Many brokerages have proposed to focus on growth stocks in their medium-term strategy meetings.</b></p><p>Mid-June,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/601377\">Industrial Securities</a>At the mid-term strategy meeting, Zhang Yidong, global chief strategist of Industrial Securities, said that in the second half of the year, the domestic investment style was dominated by growth stocks and supplemented by value stocks. The sharp differentiation between growth and value has converged, and the relative cost performance of value stocks has decreased.</p><p>Zhang Yidong said that science and technology innovation will lead the \"future core assets\". Since the beginning of this year, foreign positions have undergone obvious changes, and science and technology innovation board has become the new favorite. Secondly, the \"future core assets\" represented by science and technology innovation board and Growth Enterprise Market are relatively cost-effective. The PE ratio of CSI 500/CSI 300 and the PE ratio of GEM and CSI 300 are at historical lows.</p><p>In early June,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/600030\">CITIC Securities</a>At the medium-term strategy meeting, it was proposed that A-shares will enter a resonant upward period in the \"trilogy\" of slow growth in the second half of the year, and there will be more room in the fourth quarter. It is estimated that the net inflow of A-shares will reach 220 billion yuan in the second half of the year. Among them, under the expectation of RMB appreciation, foreign capital inflows may continue to exceed expectations.</p><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/06030\">CITIC Securities</a>He said that in terms of configuration, it is recommended to downplay cyclical thinking, focus on growth in the third quarter, and increase large consumption in the fourth quarter. Among them, the growth category includes growth manufacturing (new energy, semiconductor materials, national defense security and technology-enabled manufacturing, etc.) and growth consumption (cosmetics, medical beauty, sportswear and new tobacco, etc.); Large consumption mainly includes e-commerce, online consumption with a high proportion (branded clothing, beauty cosmetics and daily chemicals), and optional durable consumer goods (home appliances, automobiles and 3C electronics).</p><p>On June 16,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/601995\">CICC</a>At the investment strategy meeting in the second half of 2021,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/03908\">CICC</a>Chief strategist Wang Hanfeng said that looking forward to the second half of the year, although the market is currently paying more attention to inflation or stagflation, the impact of the epidemic is not only reflected on the supply side, but also on the demand side. The recovery of China's consumer demand is currently weak. In the second half of the year, the market may gradually pay more attention to the sustainability of growth and possible policy adjustments. The market style is expected to gradually return to the \"growth\" style.</p><p>Wang Hanfeng said that considering factors such as growth, valuation, policies and overseas markets, the overall performance of the Chinese market in the second half of the year may be neutral, but the structure is relatively optimistic, and the style rotation of value outperforming growth may have come to an end; At the allocation level, it is suggested to \"light index, heavy structure, and partial growth\", and re-emphasize the general trend of \"new economy\" such as China's industrial upgrading and consumption upgrading after the market consolidation in the first half of the year.</p><p><b>Looking back at the strategy report six months ago</b></p><p><b>The brokerage strategy meeting is a stage for brokerages to show professional research and judgment. Almost every brokerage will hold it at the end of the year, in the middle of the year or even quarterly. However, the change of macro environment and the style of A-share market sometimes makes the strategies of some securities firms slightly embarrassing.</b></p><p>Looking back at 2020, the market first \"epidemic\" and then rose, and rebounded in shock. On December 31, 2020, the three major A-share stock indexes closed in the red across the board, and the Shanghai Composite Index broke through the year's high of 3,465.73 points, setting a new high since February 6, 2018. For the whole year of 2020, the Shanghai Composite Index rose by 13.87%, the Shenzhen Component Index rose by 38.73%, and the ChiNext Index rose by 64.96%. Brokerages and Public Offering of Fund have achieved good results as a whole.</p><p>Most securities firms will put their strategies for 2021 at the end of 2020 and have greater confidence in 2021.</p><p>2021, as the first year of the \"14th Five-Year Plan\" and the first year after the \"thirtieth\" of A-shares, has shown a new look in terms of system, investor structure, and the quality of the development of listed companies, and the outside world is all concerned about novel coronavirus pneumonia. We have confidence in epidemic control and firmly believe that we can \"open the world map\" again.</p><p>For example, in November 2020,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/600369\">Southwest Securities</a>At the 2021 strategy meeting, the strategy team of Southwest Securities believes that at present, it is in the relay of the third big bull market in the history of A-shares, and the economic recovery continues to be better than expected. At the end of the year, the market is getting better and better, and there are opportunities for cyclical growth.</p><p>Zhu Bin, chief strategist of Southwest Securities, said in an interview with the media that looking forward to the market in 2021, the high point of this bull market is expected to be around 4,000 points. From the perspective of investment structure, investment in the three major fields of manufacturing, real estate and infrastructure has fully recovered.</p><p>Based on the judgment of the long-term, medium-term and short-term economic cycles, as well as the forecast of A-share earnings, valuation, supply and demand,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/601688\">Huatai Securities</a>The strategy team also believes that A-shares will still be on the \"bull back\" in 2021, and the main line of top-down investment is: global reflation and manufacturing investment cycle recovery; Corresponding allocation ideas: trading \"re-inflation\", with bulk as the shield and manufacturing as the spear.</p><p>In December 2020, Dongguan Securities released its A-share investment strategy for the first half of 2021. In its strategy report, the company believes that the global economic situation is expected to usher in a gradual recovery in the first half of 2021, while the domestic economic operation has returned to normal, and domestic demand such as investment and consumption is still supported by policies. The economy will continue to pick up in 2021. It is expected that the annual GDP growth rate is about 7%, showing a pattern of first high and then stable.</p><p>The recurrence of the epidemic and the mutation of the virus are beyond the imagination of some strategic analysts. For example, last December,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/002500\">Shanxi Securities</a>The strategy team believes that the global economy is expected to emerge from the epidemic in 2021, and the establishment of an immune barrier through global vaccines will completely end the epidemic, which will recover significantly and have a positive impact on the equity market. The domestic economy continues to recover, policies have returned to normal in an orderly manner, and manufacturing investment and service consumption have become new driving forces leading the next stage of domestic economic recovery.</p>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/71d4f39c6a574e992fecb4bb520fbc93","relate_stocks":{"399001":"深证成指","399006":"创业板指","000001.SH":"上证指数"},"is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1192656485","content_text":"2021年上半年即将过去，多家券商的年中策略会正紧锣密鼓的进行。围绕下半年A股走势、投资风格和资产配置，各家券商展开了一场看不见的“唇枪舌战”。\n去年11月至今年2月中旬，大市值白马股屡创超额收益并带动市场估值上行；今年3月上旬至今，不少白马股市值出现大幅回调，甚至创下今年股价新低，致使不少“顶流基金经理” 濒临“神话破灭”。\n为此，围绕茅指数为代表的白马股，在年中券商策略会上也出现“打架”现象。有券商首席策略分析师认为，简单的“龙头躺赢”策略失效，配置上应该将成长性放在首位；有些券商首席策略分析师则表示，龙头公司长牛特征将越来越明显，春节以来的回调只是性价比的自我修正，仍然值得配置。\n值得一提的是，今年以来，市场风格和疫情控制形势多变，站在当下回顾半年前一些策略，走偏甚至翻车的也不少。\n茅指数龙头还值得拥抱？\nA股投资者对去年11月以来，各个行业的龙头公司市值大涨记忆犹新，并亲切冠以“行业+茅”称呼。\n不过，“龙头躺赢”的策略在今年3月以来逐渐失效，如“地产茅”万科A、“保险茅”中国平安、“水泥茅”海螺水泥，以及“家电茅”格力电器等股价纷纷回调，一些股价甚至还创出一段时间来的新低。\n6月22日，安信证券首席分析师陈果在年中策略会上表示，当前市场主线正在生变。3月以来部分核心赛道二线龙头表现优于部分传统赛道一线龙头，未来市场简单的“龙头躺赢”策略失效，配置逻辑上成长性将居首位，市场核心也将回归“长赛道+高景气”。\n陈果进一步指出，近年来A股已逐步走出一批资产高速扩张、业绩快速提升、全球竞争力不断加强的硬技术实力企业。从投资角度看，后市半导体、新能源、医疗服务、军工、新材料、人工智能等行业值得重点关注。\n6月23日，海通证券在北京举办2021年中期投资策略报告会。海通证券首席经济学家荀玉根认为，A股个股及基金的分化趋势还将延续，未来我国股市两极分化的马太效应将更加显著；市值结构方面，2017年以来超大市值组持续占优。\n对于2021年下半年，荀玉根表示，守正出奇方能致胜。他进一步解释，守正出奇即以茅指数为代表的第一梯队超大市值公司仍然值得配置，但产业升级大趋势下，中大盘中的智能制造才是获取超额收益的关键。\n荀玉根认为，未来随着A股机构化、国际化趋势逐步推进，以茅指数为代表的龙头公司长牛特征将越来越明显，春节以来的回调只是性价比的自我修正。\n“出奇即中大盘性价比更高。随着经济逐渐步入正轨，以茅指数为代表的超大盘股在基本面上的相对优势不会像去年那么极致。参考美股，未来A股第二档即200-800亿的中大市值的公司有望进一步变大变强。”荀玉根称。\n配置成长股成为共识\n券商中国记者注意到，过去数年躺赢的核心资产已不便宜，且在估值和盈利方面面临震荡分化，不少券商在中期策略会中提出聚焦于成长股。\n6月中旬，兴业证券中期策略会上，兴业证券全球首席策略分析师张忆东表示，下半年国内的投资风格是以成长股为主、价值股为辅，成长和价值的剧烈分化已经收敛，价值股的相对性价比降低。\n张忆东表示，科创将引领“未来核心资产”。今年以来，外资持仓发生了较为明显的变化，科创板成为新宠。其次，科创板和创业板为代表的“未来核心资产”，具有相对性价比。中证500/沪深300的PE比值、以及创业板与沪深300的PE比值都处于历史低位。\n6月初，中信证券在中期策略会上提出，A股下半年将进入慢涨“三部曲”中的共振上行期，且四季度空间更大。预计下半年A股净流入资金规模达到2200亿元。其中人民币升值预期下，外资流入或继续超预期。\n中信证券表示，配置上，建议淡化周期思维，三季度聚焦成长，四季度增配大消费。其中，成长类包括成长类制造（新能源、半导体材料、国防安全以及科技赋能制造等）和成长型消费（化妆品、医美、运动服饰及新型烟草等）；大消费主要包括电商、线上占比高的消费（品牌服饰、美妆日化），以及可选耐用消费品（家电、汽车和3C电子）等。\n6月16日，中金公司2021下半年投资策略会上，中金公司首席策略师王汉锋表示，展望下半年，虽然市场当前较为关注通胀或滞胀，但疫情冲击不仅体现在供给侧，也体现在需求侧。中国消费需求复苏目前偏弱，下半年市场可能逐步更加关注增长的持续性，以及可能的政策调整，市场风格上有望逐步重回偏“成长”风格。\n王汉锋表示，综合增长、估值、政策及海外市场等因素，下半年中国市场整体表现可能偏中性，但结构上相对乐观，价值跑赢成长的风格轮动可能已经在尾声；配置层面上建议“轻指数、重结构、偏成长”，在上半年的市场盘整后重新重视中国产业升级与消费升级等“新经济”大趋势。\n回望半年前策略报告\n券商策略会是券商展示专业研判的舞台，几乎每家券商年末、年中甚至季度都会举办。不过，宏观环境和A股市场的风格的转换，有时候会令一些券商的策略略显尴尬。\n回望2020年，大盘先“疫”后扬，震荡反弹。2020年12月31日，A股三大股指全线收红，沪指突破年内高点3465.73点，创2018年2月6日以来新高。2020全年，沪指累涨13.87%，深成指累涨38.73%，创业板指累涨64.96%。券商和公募基金整体都取得不错的业绩。\n大多数券商将2021年的策略会放在2020年末，且对2021年抱有较大的信心。\n2021年作为“十四五”开局之年和A股“三十而立”后的第一年，无论在制度、投资者结构，还是上市公司发展质量上都呈现出新气象，且外界均对新冠肺炎疫情控制抱有信心，坚信能重新“打开世界地图”。\n例如，2020年11月，西南证券2021年策略会上，西南证券策略团队就认为，当前，正处于A股历史上第三次大牛市的中继，经济复苏延续比预期要好，年底行情渐入佳境，周期成长皆有机会。\n西南证券首席策略分析师朱斌接受媒体采访时表示，展望2021年市场，预计此轮大牛市的高点就是4000点左右。从投资结构上看，制造业、房地产和基建三大领域的投资全面复苏。\n基于经济长、中、短周期的判断，以及A股盈利、估值、供需的预测，华泰证券策略团队也认为，2021年A股仍在“牛背”上，自上而下投资主线为：全球再通胀和制造业投资周期回升；对应配置思路：交易“再通胀”，以大宗为盾，以制造为矛。\n2020年12月，东莞证券发布2021年上半年A股投资策略。该公司在策略报告中认为，2021年上半年全球经济形势有望迎来逐步恢复态势，而国内经济运行已经回归常态，投资、消费等内需仍受到政策支持，2021年经济将持续回暖，预计全年GDP增速为7%左右，并呈现先高后稳的格局。\n而疫情的反复、病毒的变异，也是一些策略分析师无法想象的。例如去年12月，山西证券策略团队认为，2021年全球经济有望走出疫情，通过全球疫苗建立免疫屏障彻底结束疫情，显著回暖，对权益市场影响偏正面。而国内经济延续复苏，政策有序回归常态，制造业投资、服务类消费成为引领国内经济下一阶段复苏的新动能。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"399001":0.9,"399006":0.9,"000001.SH":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":3815,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":137350785,"gmtCreate":1622303831147,"gmtModify":1704182866508,"author":{"id":"3573688531814941","authorId":"3573688531814941","name":"ccssyy","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/788037228f49cc166fdc5223f0073775","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3573688531814941","authorIdStr":"3573688531814941"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"I&nbsp;","listText":"I&nbsp;","text":"I","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/137350785","repostId":"1144873023","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1144873023","kind":"news","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"为用户提供金融资讯、行情、数据，旨在帮助投资者理解世界，做投资决策。","home_visible":1,"media_name":"老虎资讯综合","id":"102","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba"},"pubTimestamp":1622244373,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1144873023?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2021-05-29 07:26","market":"sh","language":"zh","title":"Last night and this morning: The short squeeze market for retail investors is temporarily suspended! Biden unveils $6 trillion budget","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1144873023","media":"老虎资讯综合","summary":"摘要：美股三大股指集体收涨，芯片股多数上涨；热门中概股周五收盘涨跌不一，欢聚集团跌近10%；美国通胀指标又爆表了！4月核心PCE同比增长3.1%；二手电子产品交易平台爱回收提交赴美IPO申请>>>海外","content":"<p><b>Summary:</b>The three major U.S. stock indexes collectively closed higher, and most chip stocks rose; Popular Chinese concept stocks closed mixed on Friday.<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/YY\">Huanju Group</a>Fell nearly 10%; U.S. inflation indicators are off the charts again! Core PCE increased by 3.1% year-on-year in April; Second-hand electronic product trading platform Aihuishou submitted an IPO application in the United States > > ><b>Overseas Market</b></p><p><b>U.S. stocks close: The three major stock indexes collectively closed higher, and the S&P 500 index achieved three consecutive positives</b></p><p>On Friday, Eastern Time, all three major indexes closed slightly higher. The S&P 500 index achieved three consecutive positives. Large technology stocks generally performed poorly, and most chip stocks rose. As of the close, the Dow Jones index rose 0.19% to 34,520.09 points; The S&P 500 rose 0.08% to 4203.57 points; The Nasdaq rose 0.09% to 13,747.61 points.</p><p>All three major U.S. stock indexes recorded gains this week. This week, the Dow rose 0.9%, the S&P 500 rose 1.2%, and the Nasdaq rose 2.1%; In May, the S&P 500 rose 0.6%, the fourth consecutive month of gains. This month, the Dow rose 1.9%, while the Nasdaq fell 1.5%.</p><p><b>Popular Chinese concept stocks closed mixed on Friday<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/YY\">Huanju Group</a>Fell nearly 10%</b></p><p>Popular Chinese concept stocks closed mixed on Friday.<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MOGU\">Mushroom Street</a>Up by more than 9%, the financial report shows that the company's fourth-quarter revenue was 90.9 million yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 23.6%; Huanju Group fell nearly 10%. The financial report showed that the company's global average monthly active users (MAU) of mobile devices fell by 15.1% year-on-year in the first quarter;<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/JD\">JD.com</a>Up 1.52%,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BABA\">Alibaba</a>Up 0.57%,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BILI\">Bilibili</a>Up 3.06%,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TME\">Tencent Music</a>Up 2.14%,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NTES\">NetEase</a>Up 1.35%,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/PDD\">Pinduoduo</a>Up 4.36%,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BIDU\">Baidu</a>Up 0.75%,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/IQ\">IQiyi</a>Down 1.86%</p><p><b>U.S. WTI crude oil rose 4.3% this week, Brent crude oil rose 4.8%</b></p><p>Crude oil futures prices closed mixed on Friday. This week and this month, U.S. WTI and London Brent crude oil both recorded gains. West Texas Intermediate crude oil (WTI) futures for July delivery fell 53 cents, or 0.8%, to close at $66.32 a barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange; LONDON<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/ICE\">Intercontinental Exchange</a>Brent crude futures for July delivery rose 17 cents, or 0.2%, to settle at $69.63 a barrel. Based on the most active contracts, WTI crude oil rose 4.3% for the week and 4.3% in May. Brent crude rose 4.8% for the week and 3.5% in May.</p><p><b>Gold futures stood above the 1900 mark on Friday, up 7.8% this month</b></p><p>Gold futures prices returned to above $1,900 on Friday. Gold futures recorded gains this week and this month. Gold futures for August delivery on the New York Mercantile Exchange rose $6.80, or 0.4%, to close at $1,905.30 an ounce, the highest closing price since January 7. On the most active contract basis, gold futures prices rose 1.5% this week and 7.8% this month.</p><p><b>International macro</b></p><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/NW/2139938485\" target=\"_blank\"><b>Biden unveils $6 trillion budget package: including two signature domestic proposals</b></a></p><p>U.S. President Joe Biden submitted his budget request for fiscal year 2022 to Congress. This is his first official budget since he became president, which is very different from that of predecessor President Trump. Biden's budget includes two of his signature domestic proposals, the American Families Plan and the American Jobs Plan, neither of which has been seriously discussed by Congress.</p><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/NW/2139485125\" target=\"_blank\"><b>U.S. Treasury Department expects Biden's tax increase plan to increase taxes by $3.6 trillion over ten years</b></a></p><p>The U.S. Treasury Department released a \"Green Paper\" on Friday saying that President Biden's tax increase plan will bring in $3.6 trillion in tax revenue over the next decade. This will constitute the main source of funding for Biden's $4 trillion plan to rebuild the U.S. economy and social security net.</p><p><b>U.S. inflation indicators are off the charts again! Core PCE increased by 3.1% year-on-year in April, the highest since 1992</b></p><p>According to statistics from the U.S. Department of Commerce, the U.S. PCE price index rose by 3.6% year-on-year in April, exceeding expectations by 3.5%, a significant increase from the previous value of 2.3%, the fastest growth rate since 2008, and much higher than the Federal Reserve's official inflation target of 2%..</p><p><b>U.S. merchandise trade deficit narrows for first time this year as exports rise to record high</b></p><p>The U.S. merchandise trade deficit narrowed for the first time this year as exports soared to record levels and imports fell from record highs. Data released by the U.S. Department of Commerce on Friday showed that the trade deficit narrowed to $85.2 billion in April from $90.6 billion in the previous month. The median estimate of economists polled by Bloomberg was $92 billion.</p><p><b>Yellen called on G7 to continue to provide financial support to support central bank's exploration of digital monetary policy</b></p><p>Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen told G7 treasury ministers and central bank governors on Friday to provide further fiscal support \"to promote a strong post-pandemic and lasting recovery\" is important, the U.S. Treasury Department said in a statement.</p><p><b>Company News</b></p><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/NW/2139486356\" target=\"_blank\"><b>Retail investors' short squeeze temporarily suspended, AMC surged 38% in early trading and then closed down</b></a></p><p>AMC, which was on the cusp of a short squeeze by retail investors, rose sharply for four consecutive days. The increase once expanded to 38% in early trading on Friday, but then fell back and finally closed down 1.58%. Other retail group stocks that have been hot recently also performed weakly on Friday.<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BBRY\">Blackberry</a>And<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NOK\">Nokia</a>The closing increase was less than 2%,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/GME\">GameStop</a>It closed down 12.58%.</p><p><b><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TSLA\">Tesla</a>Voluntarily recall some Model 3 models and Model Y models</b></p><p>According to Electrek:<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TSLA\">Tesla</a>It announced that it will voluntarily recall some Model 3 models produced between December 2018 and March 2021, and some Model Y models produced between January 2020 and January 2021, to inspect brake caliper bolts.</p><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/NW/1117147021\" target=\"_blank\"><b>Second-hand electronic product trading platform Aihuishou submits IPO application in the United States</b></a></p><p>Second-hand electronic product trading platform Aihuishou submitted an IPO application in the United States and intends to list on the New York Stock Exchange under the code \"RERE\". The underwriters include<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/GS\">Goldman Sachs</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BAC\">Bank of America</a>, China Renaissance,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/601211\">Guotai Junan</a>CLSA and<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TIGR\">Tiger Securities</a>。</p><p><b>Credit Suisse RenTech Fund temporarily bans customers from redeeming some funds</b></p><p>Credit Suisse is temporarily banning clients from redeeming all cash from a fund invested with Renaissance Technologies. Investors are rushing to redeem their investments because of the heavy losses of this strategy.</p><p><b><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/HSBC\">HSBC</a>Shareholders vote to stop coal financing by 2040</b></p><p>Media quotes<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/HSBC\">HSBC</a>News from Friday's shareholder meeting reported that HSBC shareholders voted to phase out coal financing by 2040 and align the bank's lending with the climate goals of the Paris Agreement.</p><p><b>Meituan CEO Wang Xing responds to regulatory investigation: Antitrust has a positive impact on the industry</b></p><p>In the first quarter earnings conference call, Meituan CEO Wang Xing responded to recent issues such as supervision, rider well-being, and merchant rates. Regarding Meituan's acceptance of the anti-monopoly investigation, Wang Xing said that anti-monopoly supervision will have a positive impact on the entire Internet industry. At the same time, he said that Meituan has a dedicated team to cooperate with the work of the regulatory authorities, and the anti-monopoly investigation will not have an impact on Meituan's food delivery business. Great negative impact. At the same time, Wang Xing said, \"We strictly prohibit any form of choice between the two, and have established a transparent and effective reporting channel. We will continue to actively cooperate with the regulatory authorities and fully respect the independent choice of merchants.\"</p><p>----------------------------------------------------</p><p>Share good news with Tiger friends, Tiger currently supports placing orders on weekends! Pre-pending orders are a value-added service provided by Tiger for users, which can support users to place orders during non-trading periods. Currently, they support three order types: stop loss orders, stop loss limit orders, and limit orders.</p><p>In other words, users can place pending orders during market holidays, such as weekends and other holidays. The orders are saved by Tiger's trading system and automatically submitted to the exchange after the market opens.</p><p><a href=\"https://www.laohu8.com/post/131820269\" target=\"_blank\">Click for details > > ></a></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Last night and this morning: The short squeeze market for retail investors is temporarily suspended! Biden unveils $6 trillion budget</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nLast night and this morning: The short squeeze market for retail investors is temporarily suspended! Biden unveils $6 trillion budget\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/102\">\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">老虎资讯综合 </p>\n<p class=\"h-time smaller\">2021-05-29 07:26</p>\n</div>\n</a>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><b>Summary:</b>The three major U.S. stock indexes collectively closed higher, and most chip stocks rose; Popular Chinese concept stocks closed mixed on Friday.<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/YY\">Huanju Group</a>Fell nearly 10%; U.S. inflation indicators are off the charts again! Core PCE increased by 3.1% year-on-year in April; Second-hand electronic product trading platform Aihuishou submitted an IPO application in the United States > > ><b>Overseas Market</b></p><p><b>U.S. stocks close: The three major stock indexes collectively closed higher, and the S&P 500 index achieved three consecutive positives</b></p><p>On Friday, Eastern Time, all three major indexes closed slightly higher. The S&P 500 index achieved three consecutive positives. Large technology stocks generally performed poorly, and most chip stocks rose. As of the close, the Dow Jones index rose 0.19% to 34,520.09 points; The S&P 500 rose 0.08% to 4203.57 points; The Nasdaq rose 0.09% to 13,747.61 points.</p><p>All three major U.S. stock indexes recorded gains this week. This week, the Dow rose 0.9%, the S&P 500 rose 1.2%, and the Nasdaq rose 2.1%; In May, the S&P 500 rose 0.6%, the fourth consecutive month of gains. This month, the Dow rose 1.9%, while the Nasdaq fell 1.5%.</p><p><b>Popular Chinese concept stocks closed mixed on Friday<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/YY\">Huanju Group</a>Fell nearly 10%</b></p><p>Popular Chinese concept stocks closed mixed on Friday.<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MOGU\">Mushroom Street</a>Up by more than 9%, the financial report shows that the company's fourth-quarter revenue was 90.9 million yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 23.6%; Huanju Group fell nearly 10%. The financial report showed that the company's global average monthly active users (MAU) of mobile devices fell by 15.1% year-on-year in the first quarter;<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/JD\">JD.com</a>Up 1.52%,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BABA\">Alibaba</a>Up 0.57%,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BILI\">Bilibili</a>Up 3.06%,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TME\">Tencent Music</a>Up 2.14%,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NTES\">NetEase</a>Up 1.35%,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/PDD\">Pinduoduo</a>Up 4.36%,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BIDU\">Baidu</a>Up 0.75%,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/IQ\">IQiyi</a>Down 1.86%</p><p><b>U.S. WTI crude oil rose 4.3% this week, Brent crude oil rose 4.8%</b></p><p>Crude oil futures prices closed mixed on Friday. This week and this month, U.S. WTI and London Brent crude oil both recorded gains. West Texas Intermediate crude oil (WTI) futures for July delivery fell 53 cents, or 0.8%, to close at $66.32 a barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange; LONDON<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/ICE\">Intercontinental Exchange</a>Brent crude futures for July delivery rose 17 cents, or 0.2%, to settle at $69.63 a barrel. Based on the most active contracts, WTI crude oil rose 4.3% for the week and 4.3% in May. Brent crude rose 4.8% for the week and 3.5% in May.</p><p><b>Gold futures stood above the 1900 mark on Friday, up 7.8% this month</b></p><p>Gold futures prices returned to above $1,900 on Friday. Gold futures recorded gains this week and this month. Gold futures for August delivery on the New York Mercantile Exchange rose $6.80, or 0.4%, to close at $1,905.30 an ounce, the highest closing price since January 7. On the most active contract basis, gold futures prices rose 1.5% this week and 7.8% this month.</p><p><b>International macro</b></p><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/NW/2139938485\" target=\"_blank\"><b>Biden unveils $6 trillion budget package: including two signature domestic proposals</b></a></p><p>U.S. President Joe Biden submitted his budget request for fiscal year 2022 to Congress. This is his first official budget since he became president, which is very different from that of predecessor President Trump. Biden's budget includes two of his signature domestic proposals, the American Families Plan and the American Jobs Plan, neither of which has been seriously discussed by Congress.</p><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/NW/2139485125\" target=\"_blank\"><b>U.S. Treasury Department expects Biden's tax increase plan to increase taxes by $3.6 trillion over ten years</b></a></p><p>The U.S. Treasury Department released a \"Green Paper\" on Friday saying that President Biden's tax increase plan will bring in $3.6 trillion in tax revenue over the next decade. This will constitute the main source of funding for Biden's $4 trillion plan to rebuild the U.S. economy and social security net.</p><p><b>U.S. inflation indicators are off the charts again! Core PCE increased by 3.1% year-on-year in April, the highest since 1992</b></p><p>According to statistics from the U.S. Department of Commerce, the U.S. PCE price index rose by 3.6% year-on-year in April, exceeding expectations by 3.5%, a significant increase from the previous value of 2.3%, the fastest growth rate since 2008, and much higher than the Federal Reserve's official inflation target of 2%..</p><p><b>U.S. merchandise trade deficit narrows for first time this year as exports rise to record high</b></p><p>The U.S. merchandise trade deficit narrowed for the first time this year as exports soared to record levels and imports fell from record highs. Data released by the U.S. Department of Commerce on Friday showed that the trade deficit narrowed to $85.2 billion in April from $90.6 billion in the previous month. The median estimate of economists polled by Bloomberg was $92 billion.</p><p><b>Yellen called on G7 to continue to provide financial support to support central bank's exploration of digital monetary policy</b></p><p>Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen told G7 treasury ministers and central bank governors on Friday to provide further fiscal support \"to promote a strong post-pandemic and lasting recovery\" is important, the U.S. Treasury Department said in a statement.</p><p><b>Company News</b></p><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/NW/2139486356\" target=\"_blank\"><b>Retail investors' short squeeze temporarily suspended, AMC surged 38% in early trading and then closed down</b></a></p><p>AMC, which was on the cusp of a short squeeze by retail investors, rose sharply for four consecutive days. The increase once expanded to 38% in early trading on Friday, but then fell back and finally closed down 1.58%. Other retail group stocks that have been hot recently also performed weakly on Friday.<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BBRY\">Blackberry</a>And<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NOK\">Nokia</a>The closing increase was less than 2%,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/GME\">GameStop</a>It closed down 12.58%.</p><p><b><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TSLA\">Tesla</a>Voluntarily recall some Model 3 models and Model Y models</b></p><p>According to Electrek:<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TSLA\">Tesla</a>It announced that it will voluntarily recall some Model 3 models produced between December 2018 and March 2021, and some Model Y models produced between January 2020 and January 2021, to inspect brake caliper bolts.</p><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/NW/1117147021\" target=\"_blank\"><b>Second-hand electronic product trading platform Aihuishou submits IPO application in the United States</b></a></p><p>Second-hand electronic product trading platform Aihuishou submitted an IPO application in the United States and intends to list on the New York Stock Exchange under the code \"RERE\". The underwriters include<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/GS\">Goldman Sachs</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BAC\">Bank of America</a>, China Renaissance,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/601211\">Guotai Junan</a>CLSA and<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TIGR\">Tiger Securities</a>。</p><p><b>Credit Suisse RenTech Fund temporarily bans customers from redeeming some funds</b></p><p>Credit Suisse is temporarily banning clients from redeeming all cash from a fund invested with Renaissance Technologies. Investors are rushing to redeem their investments because of the heavy losses of this strategy.</p><p><b><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/HSBC\">HSBC</a>Shareholders vote to stop coal financing by 2040</b></p><p>Media quotes<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/HSBC\">HSBC</a>News from Friday's shareholder meeting reported that HSBC shareholders voted to phase out coal financing by 2040 and align the bank's lending with the climate goals of the Paris Agreement.</p><p><b>Meituan CEO Wang Xing responds to regulatory investigation: Antitrust has a positive impact on the industry</b></p><p>In the first quarter earnings conference call, Meituan CEO Wang Xing responded to recent issues such as supervision, rider well-being, and merchant rates. Regarding Meituan's acceptance of the anti-monopoly investigation, Wang Xing said that anti-monopoly supervision will have a positive impact on the entire Internet industry. At the same time, he said that Meituan has a dedicated team to cooperate with the work of the regulatory authorities, and the anti-monopoly investigation will not have an impact on Meituan's food delivery business. Great negative impact. At the same time, Wang Xing said, \"We strictly prohibit any form of choice between the two, and have established a transparent and effective reporting channel. We will continue to actively cooperate with the regulatory authorities and fully respect the independent choice of merchants.\"</p><p>----------------------------------------------------</p><p>Share good news with Tiger friends, Tiger currently supports placing orders on weekends! Pre-pending orders are a value-added service provided by Tiger for users, which can support users to place orders during non-trading periods. Currently, they support three order types: stop loss orders, stop loss limit orders, and limit orders.</p><p>In other words, users can place pending orders during market holidays, such as weekends and other holidays. The orders are saved by Tiger's trading system and automatically submitted to the exchange after the market opens.</p><p><a href=\"https://www.laohu8.com/post/131820269\" target=\"_blank\">Click for details > > ></a></p>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b23574aac95526c9e5c62ebc8dd25130","relate_stocks":{".DJI":"道琼斯",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite"},"is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1144873023","content_text":"摘要：美股三大股指集体收涨，芯片股多数上涨；热门中概股周五收盘涨跌不一，欢聚集团跌近10%；美国通胀指标又爆表了！4月核心PCE同比增长3.1%；二手电子产品交易平台爱回收提交赴美IPO申请>>>海外市场美股收盘：三大股指集体收涨 标普500指数实现三连阳美东时间周五，三大指数均小幅收涨，标普500指数实现三连阳，大型科技股普遍表现不佳，芯片股多数上涨。截至收盘，道琼斯指数涨0.19%，报34520.09点；标普500指数涨0.08%，报4203.57点；纳斯达克指数涨0.09%，报13747.61点。本周美股三大股指均录得涨幅。本周道指上涨0.9%，标普500指数上涨1.2%，纳指上涨2.1%；在5月份，标普500指数上涨0.6%，为连续第四个月上涨。本月道指上涨1.9%，纳指下跌1.5%。热门中概股周五收盘涨跌不一 欢聚集团跌近10%热门中概股周五收盘涨跌不一，蘑菇街涨超9%，财报显示该公司第四财季营收9090万元，同比下滑23.6%；欢聚集团跌近10%，财报显示该公司一季度全球移动设备平均月活用户（MAU）同比降低15.1%；京东涨1.52%，阿里巴巴涨0.57%，哔哩哔哩涨3.06%，腾讯音乐涨2.14%，网易涨1.35%，拼多多涨4.36%，百度涨0.75%，爱奇艺跌1.86%本周美国WTI原油上涨4.3% 布伦特原油涨4.8%原油期货价格周五收盘涨跌不一。在本周与本月，美国WTI与伦敦布伦特原油均录得涨幅。纽约商品交易所7月交割的西德州中质原油（WTI）期货价格下跌53美分，跌幅0.8%，收于每桶66.32美元；伦敦洲际交易所7月交割的布伦特原油期货价格上涨17美分，涨幅0.2%，收于每桶69.63美元。按照最活跃合约计算，WTI原油本周上涨4.3%，5月上涨4.3%。布伦特原油本周上涨4.8%，5月上涨3.5%。黄金期货周五站上1900关口 本月上涨7.8%黄金期货价格周五重返1900美元上方。本周及本月黄金期货均录得涨幅。纽约商品交易所8月交割的黄金期货价格上涨6.80美元，涨幅0.4%，收于每盎司1905.30美元，创1月7日以来最高收盘价。按照最活跃合约计算，黄金期货价格本周上涨1.5%，本月上涨7.8%。国际宏观拜登公布6万亿美元预算方案：包括两项标志性的国内提案美国总统拜登向国会提交了他的2022财政年度预算申请，这是他担任总统以来的首个正式预算，其与前任总统特朗普的预算有很大不同。拜登的预算包括了他的两项标志性的国内提案，美国家庭计划和美国就业计划，这两项提案都还没有得到国会的认真讨论。美国财政部预计拜登加税计划十年可增加3.6万亿美元税收美国财政部周五发布“绿皮书”称，总统拜登的加税计划将在未来十年带来3.6万亿美元税收收入。这将构成拜登4万亿美元重建美国经济和社会保障网络计划的主要资金来源。美国通胀指标又爆表了！4月核心PCE同比增长3.1%，创1992年来最高据美国商务部统计，美国4月PCE物价指数同比升3.6%，超预期升3.5%，较前值2.3%大幅提高，创2008年以来最快增速，远高于美联储的官方通胀目标2%。美国商品贸易逆差年内首次收窄 因出口升至纪录高位由于出口额飙升至创纪录水平，且进口额从历史高位回落，美国商品贸易逆差今年首次收窄。美国商务部周五发布的数据显示，4月份贸易逆差从前月的906亿美元收窄至852亿美元。彭博调查的经济学家预估中值为920亿美元。耶伦呼吁G7继续提供财政支持 支持央行数字货币政策探索美国财政部在一份声明中表示，财政部长珍妮特-耶伦（Janet Yellen）周五告诉七国集团（G7）财长和央行行长，提供进一步的财政支持“以促进疫情后的强劲和持久复苏”十分重要。公司新闻散户逼空行情暂歇 AMC早盘暴涨38%后转为收跌处在散户逼空风口浪尖的AMC在连续四日大涨之后，周五早盘涨幅一度扩大至38%，但之后回落，最终收跌1.58%。近期表现大热的其他散户抱团股周五也表现疲软，黑莓和诺基亚收盘涨幅均不足2%，游戏驿站更以下跌12.58%报收。特斯拉主动召回部分Model3车型和ModelY车型据Electrek：特斯拉宣布将主动召回2018年12月至2021年3月间生产的部分Model 3车型，以及2020年1月至2021年1月间生产的部分ModelY车型，以检查刹车卡钳螺栓。二手电子产品交易平台爱回收提交赴美IPO申请二手电子产品交易平台爱回收提交赴美IPO申请，有意按代码“RERE”在纽交所挂牌交易，承销商包括高盛、美国银行、华兴资本、国泰君安、里昂证券以及老虎证券。瑞信RenTech基金暂时禁止客户赎回部分资金瑞信正暂时禁止客户从一支与Renaissance Technologies投资的基金赎回所有现金。因该策略亏损严重，投资者正匆忙赎回投资。汇丰股东投票决定到2040年停止煤炭融资媒体援引汇丰周五股东大会的消息报道，汇丰股东投票通过到2040年期间逐步淘汰煤炭融资并使该行的贷款与《巴黎协定》的气候目标一致。美团CEO王兴回应监管调查：反垄断对行业有正向影响在一季度财报电话会议上，美团CEO王兴对于近期的监管、骑手福祉、商家费率等问题作出了回应。对于美团接受反垄断调查一事，王兴表示反垄断监管对于整个互联网行业将产生正向影响，同时表示美团有专门团队配合监管层的工作，反垄断调查不会对美团的外卖业务产生很大的负面影响。同时，王兴表示，“我们严格禁止任何形式的二选一，并建立了透明有效的举报渠道，会继续积极配合监管部门，充分尊重商家的自主选择权。”----------------------------------------------------和虎友们分享一个好消息，老虎当前支持周末下单了！预挂单是老虎为用户提供的一种增值服务，可以支持用户在非交易时间段下单，目前支持止损单、止损限价单、限价单3种订单类型。也就是说，用户可以在休市期间，比如周末等节假日进行挂单，订单由老虎的交易系统保存，待开市后自动提交到交易所。点击了解详情>>>","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{".IXIC":0.9,".DJI":0.9,".SPX":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":3022,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":108967005,"gmtCreate":1619994048107,"gmtModify":1704336949715,"author":{"id":"3573688531814941","authorId":"3573688531814941","name":"ccssyy","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/788037228f49cc166fdc5223f0073775","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3573688531814941","authorIdStr":"3573688531814941"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"666","listText":"666","text":"666","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/108967005","repostId":"2132567538","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"2132567538","kind":"highlight","pubTimestamp":1619941518,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/2132567538?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2021-05-02 15:45","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"Is the GDP of the United States strong or weak in the first quarter?","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2132567538","media":"智通财经网","summary":"本文来自“申万宏源宏观”。摘要一、周观点：美国一季度GDP究竟是偏强还是偏弱?21Q1美国GDP同比0.4%，略低于市场预期。美国21Q1  GDP实际同比0.4%，疫情以来首次同比转正，环比1.6%","content":"<p><b>This article comes from \"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/000166\">Shenwan Hongyuan</a>Macro \".</b></p><p>SUMMARY</p><p><b>1. Zhou's point of view: Is the GDP of the United States strong or weak in the first quarter?</b></p><p><b>U.S. GDP in 21Q1 was 0.4% year-on-year, slightly lower than market expectations.</b>The actual 21Q1 GDP of the United States was 0.4% year-on-year, turning positive year-on-year for the first time since the epidemic, and 1.6% month-on-month. The main contributing factors are commodity consumption, service consumption, and non-residential investment, showing the rapid recovery of the U.S. economy under the improvement of the epidemic and fiscal subsidies. However, the main drag items are changes in private inventories and imports. In fact, the GDP growth rate of the United States in the first quarter was slightly lower than market expectations, indicating that the market lacks understanding of the slow recovery of production caused by excessive fiscal subsidies in the United States, and is overly optimistic about the improvement of the epidemic. expectations.</p><p><b>Household consumption: Subsidies promote commodity consumption, and the epidemic situation eases and the service industry recovers.</b>1) In 21Q1, U.S. personal consumption expenditures drove GDP by 1.1 percentage points year-on-year, a significant improvement of 3 percentage points from 20Q4. Commodity consumption is mainly driven by durable goods, while service consumption has a greater improvement in GDP than durable goods consumption; 2) From a monthly high-frequency perspective, PCE in March was 8.5% year-on-year and 3.7% month-on-month. It strengthened again after falling slightly during the direct subsidy vacuum period in February. It shows the immediate stimulating effect of the subsidy of US $1,400 in March on consumption, as well as the recovery of service consumption under the relaxation of prevention and control measures. However, judging from the intensity of the recovery of service consumption, it is actually slightly weaker than the overly optimistic expectations of overseas markets in February-March.</p><p><b>Investment: Equipment investment has improved significantly, interest rates have suppressed real estate investment, and inventory replenishment has not occurred.</b>In 21Q1, domestic private investment drove GDP by 0.8 percentage points year-on-year, a slight improvement of 0.1 percentage points from the fourth quarter. 1) The improvement in non-residential investment shows that the U.S. production sector's expectations for the economic outlook have improved; 2) The year-on-year decline in the contribution of private inventory changes to 21Q1 GDP is a manifestation of the tear between supply and demand in the U.S. economy. Strong demand and slow recovery of production have led to a decline in inventory. This means that the strengthening of commodity prices in Q1 cannot be supported by U.S. industrial production. Supported by strong and active inventory replenishment logic; 3) The year-on-year contribution of residential investment to GDP remained basically stable, while the month-on-month growth rate was suppressed by the overall increase in U.S. interest rates in the previous period. The follow-up is expected to continue to cool down with the medium-term upward process of interest rates.</p><p><b>Government expenditure and net exports: Subsidies drive the increase of government expenditure, and the widening gap between supply and demand leads to the high increase of imports.</b>The tear between supply and demand in the U.S. economy has caused net exports to deepen the drag on GDP again. Net exports in 21Q1 dragged down GDP by 2 percentage points year-on-year, and the degree of drag was 0.7 percentage points higher than that in 20Q4. Government expenditure in 21Q1 boosted GDP by 0.1 percentage points year-on-year, mainly due to the U.S. government's issuance of direct subsidy checks to residents to the banking system and the cost of purchasing vaccines.</p><p><b>It is expected that the U.S. economic recovery will reach a high point in the second quarter. Pay attention to the follow-up progress of the epidemic.</b>We believe that the strength of future U.S. economic recovery depends on the vaccination process and the spread of COVID-19 pandemic. Under the assumption that the epidemic situation in the United States continues to ease and the service industry gradually recovers, the second quarter is expected to be the highest point for the recovery of the U.S. economy. However, the tear between supply and demand caused by excessive subsidies will continue until September, and the intensity of the recovery of the U.S. economy during the year may not be as strong as the market expected. Personal consumption expenditure: It is expected that the first quarter will be the high point of commodity consumption, and service industry consumption will continue to gradually recover as the epidemic eases. However, the spread of more contagious virus variants in the United States and overseas countries will also affect the subsequent recovery intensity of service industry; Investment: The improvement of non-residential investment needs to pay attention to the subsequent progress of the epidemic. Residential investment will decline with the gradual cooling of the real estate market; Private inventory changes may wait until September after the end of unemployment benefits. Government expenditure and net exports: Government expenditure is expected to continue to make a positive contribution to GDP year-on-year before the fourth quarter. Net exports will return to normal levels as the gap between supply and demand narrows later this year.</p><p><b>2. Global macro data</b></p><p><b>High-frequency data this week</b>: New orders for durable goods in the United States increased year-on-month</p><p><b>Epidemic</b>: New confirmed cases in the United States declined.</p><p><b>Demand</b>: Japan's retail sales rebounded sharply year-on-year.</p><p><b>Supply and employment</b>: New orders for durable goods in the United States increased year-on-month.</p><p><b>Trade</b>: U.S. imports and exports both rose sharply year-on-year in March.</p><p><b>Inflation and Commodities</b>: Oil prices rose slightly.</p><p><b>Real Estate</b>: The U.S. existing home contract sales index rose in March.</p><p><b>Monetary policy and exchange rates</b>: the US Dollar Index falls, gold prices stabilize.</p><p><b>Global Macro Calendar</b>: Focus on US ISM Manufacturing PMI</p><p>text</p><p><b>1. Zhou's point of view: Is the GDP of the United States strong or weak in the first quarter?</b></p><p><b>1.21 Q1 U.S. GDP was 0.4% year-on-year, slightly lower than market expectations</b></p><p>The actual 21Q1 GDP of the United States was 0.4% year-on-year, turning positive year-on-year for the first time since the epidemic, and 1.6% month-on-month. The main contributing factors are commodity consumption, service consumption, and non-residential investment, showing the relatively rapid recovery of the U.S. economy under the improvement of the epidemic and fiscal subsidies. The main drag items are changes in private inventories and imports. In fact, the GDP growth rate of the United States in the first quarter was slightly lower than market expectations, indicating that the market lacks understanding of the slow recovery of production caused by excessive fiscal subsidies in the United States, and is overly optimistic about the improvement of the epidemic. expectations.</p><p><img src=\"http://img.zhitongcaijing.com/images/contentformat/867b3b31bf5a4410ca85884cf283ce1f.jpg\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"588\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><b>2. Household consumption: Subsidies promote commodity consumption, and the epidemic eases and the service industry recovers</b></p><p>In 21Q1, financial subsidies of up to 2,000 USD/person stimulate commodity consumption; The easing of the epidemic has promoted the recovery of service consumption, but it is slightly weaker than the early optimistic expectations of overseas markets. 1) From a quarterly perspective, U.S. personal consumption expenditure in 21Q1 drove GDP by 1.1 percentage points year-on-year, a significant improvement of 3 percentage points from 20Q4. It jumped from the largest drag on GDP in the fourth quarter to the largest contribution, showing that the first quarter also had The stimulating effect of the US $600 subsidy in January and the US $1,400 subsidy issued in March on consumption, as well as the gradual release of service consumption as the epidemic eases. 2) From the perspective of monthly high frequency, PCE in March reached 8.5% year-on-year and 3.7% month-on-month. It strengthened again after falling slightly during the direct subsidy vacuum period in February. Among them, the year-on-year growth rate of durable goods and service consumption increased again, reaching 43.3% and 4.8% respectively in March, while non-durable goods slowed down slightly (4.3%) year-on-year, indicating that the subsidy of US $1,400 in March had an immediate stimulus effect on consumption, and the recovery of service consumption under the relaxation of prevention and control measures. However, judging from the intensity of the recovery of service consumption, it is actually slightly weaker than the overly optimistic expectations of overseas markets in February-March.</p><p><img src=\"http://img.zhitongcaijing.com/images/contentformat/fb6a3cdada866cc05b11f3b44abb7b40.jpg\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"398\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>Commodity consumption and service consumption jointly drive the high increase of personal consumption expenditure. 1) Commodity consumption is mainly driven by durable goods. Commodity consumption in 21Q1 boosted GDP by 3.2 percentage points, an improvement of 1.5 percentage points compared with 20Q4, mainly due to the high growth of durable goods again under the fiscal stimulus in the first quarter. The contribution of durable goods to GDP in 21Q1 improved significantly by 1.3 percentage points compared with the fourth quarter, while the contribution of non-durable goods to GDP only slightly improved by 0.3 percentage points; 2) The improvement of service consumption on GDP is greater than that of durable goods consumption. Although service consumption in 21Q1 still has a negative pull of-1.4% on GDP, it has improved significantly by 1.6 percentage points compared with the previous quarter, and the improvement rate is even greater than that of durable goods consumption, showing that service consumption has improved under the dual factors of fiscal subsidies and epidemic easing. The flexibility is greater.</p><p><img src=\"http://img.zhitongcaijing.com/images/contentformat/e8b1b37f95a3c799e28a194bc63e56e7.jpg\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"399\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><b>3. Investment: Equipment investment has improved significantly, interest rates have suppressed real estate investment, and inventory replenishment has not occurred</b></p><p>The effect of non-residential investment on GDP has been greatly improved, and private inventory has turned into a drag. In 21Q1, domestic private investment drove GDP by 0.8 percentage points year-on-year, a slight improvement of 0.1 percentage points from the fourth quarter.</p><p>1) The improvement in non-residential investment shows that the U.S. production sector's expectations for the economic outlook have improved. The main contributor to the improvement of private investment is non-residential investment (an improvement of 0.6 percentage points), which mainly comes from equipment investment, indicating that manufacturing companies remain optimistic about the prospects for economic recovery.</p><p>2) The year-on-year decline in the contribution of private inventory changes to 21Q1 GDP is a manifestation of the tear between supply and demand in the U.S. economy. Strong demand and slow recovery of production have led to a decline in inventories. This means that the strengthening of commodity prices in Q1 cannot be supported by U.S. industrial production. Supported by strong and active inventory replenishment logic. The main drag on private investment was the change of private inventory (0.4 percentage points).</p><p>3) The year-on-year contribution of residential investment to GDP remained basically stable, while the month-on-month growth rate was suppressed by the overall increase in U.S. interest rates in the previous period. The follow-up is expected to continue to cool down with the medium-term upward process of interest rates. The pull of residential investment on GDP in 21Q1 remained stable. However, with the gradual increase of mortgage interest rates in the past 21 years, the U.S. real estate market has cooled down, and residential construction expenditures and existing home sales have slowed down. It is expected that subsequent residential investment will have an impact on GDP. The pulling effect will gradually decline.</p><p><img src=\"http://img.zhitongcaijing.com/images/contentformat/8831f8bd60fdfc9671df61b6e741faaa.jpg\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"393\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><b>4. Government expenditure and net exports: Subsidies drive the increase of government expenditure, and the widening gap between supply and demand leads to the high increase of imports</b></p><p>The tear between supply and demand in the U.S. economy has caused net exports to deepen the drag on GDP again. Net exports in 21Q1 dragged down GDP by 2 percentage points year-on-year, and the degree of drag was 0.7 percentage points higher than that in 20Q4. 1) Exports dragged down by 1 percentage point, but have improved by 0.2 percentage points from the previous quarter, showing a slight recovery in U.S. industrial production, but it is still dwarfed by the 3.0 percentage point improvement in personal consumption expenditures. What actually reflects the excessive fiscal subsidies in the United States. The widening gap between supply and demand in 21Q1; 2) Imports dragged down GDP by 1.0 percentage points year-on-year in 21Q1, a significant increase of 0.9 percentage points compared with the previous quarter. The direct consequence of the widening gap between supply and demand in the United States is the expansion of import scale.</p><p>Government expenditure in 21Q1 boosted GDP by 0.1 percentage points year-on-year, mainly due to the U.S. government's issuance of direct subsidy checks to residents to the banking system and the cost of purchasing vaccines.</p><p><img src=\"http://img.zhitongcaijing.com/images/contentformat/1e6d4ceb162a00ae93de51b3cf6bb71b.jpg\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"386\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><b>5. The U.S. economic recovery is expected to reach a high point in the second quarter, and pay attention to the follow-up progress of the epidemic</b></p><p>Looking ahead, we believe that the strength of future U.S. economic recovery depends on the vaccination process and the spread of COVID-19 pandemic. Under the assumption that the epidemic situation in the United States continues to ease and the service industry gradually recovers, the second quarter is expected to be the highest point for the recovery of the U.S. economy. However, the tear between supply and demand caused by excessive subsidies will continue until September, and the intensity of the recovery of the U.S. economy during the year may not be as strong as the market expected.</p><p>Personal consumption expenditure: 1) Although commodity consumption in 21Q1 showed extremely strong momentum, we expect that the first quarter was already the high point of commodity consumption, and it will gradually decline as subsidies ebb; 2) Consumption in the service industry will continue to gradually recover as the epidemic eases, but the global epidemic has rebounded since March, especially in European countries and emerging countries. At the same time, the spread of more contagious virus variants in the United States and overseas countries will also affect the subsequent recovery intensity of the service industry.</p><p>Investment: 1) The main driving force for the improvement of non-residential investment in 21Q1 is the expectation of economic improvement. From the current point of view, the global epidemic is the core factor that determines the intensity of economic recovery, and we need to pay attention to the subsequent progress of the epidemic; 2) Residential investment will decline as the real estate market gradually cools down; 3) Changes in private inventories, that is, the intensity of inventory replenishment will depend on whether the current situation of the tearing between supply and demand in the United States can be alleviated. From the current point of view, it may not be until the end of unemployment subsidies in September that there will be a significant bridging trend between the supply and demand ends in the United States. Then drive inventory investment.</p><p>Government expenditure and net exports: 1) As unemployment subsidies continue to be paid in the second and third quarters, government expenditure is expected to continue to make a positive contribution to GDP year-on-year before the fourth quarter, and if the U.S. employment plan or the U.S. household plan can be implemented within the year, it will also boost the level of government spending; In terms of net exports, exports will depend on the progress of the recovery of U.S. industrial production. As mentioned above, it may not be boosted until the fourth quarter. Imports, on the contrary, will fall back to normal as the gap between supply and demand narrows later this year. level.</p><p><img src=\"http://img.zhitongcaijing.com/images/contentformat/32e1b124c2e79173310a2a69f29f1ee7.jpg\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"547\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><b>2. Global macro data: New confirmed cases in the United States decreased</b></p><p><b>1. Epidemic situation: New confirmed cases in the United States decreased</b></p><p>The number of new confirmed cases in the United States dropped this week. The average number of newly diagnosed cases in the United States dropped to more than 53,000 on the 7th day. As of April 29, the total number of confirmed cases in COVID-19 pandemic worldwide exceeded 150 million, the total number of deaths was 3.14 million, and the total number of recovered cases was 120 million. In the four days of this week (April 27-April 30), there were 220,000 and 9,000 new confirmed cases in the United States and the United Kingdom respectively.</p><p>As of April 28, the most COVID-19 vaccine vaccinations per 100 people worldwide were in Israel, reaching 121.1 shots per 100 people, 70.2 shots per 100 people in the United States, and 70.9 shots per 100 people in the United Kingdom. As of April 28, Israel has the highest proportion of fully vaccinated people in the world, reaching 58.7%, while the United States and the United Kingdom have 29.3% and 20.7% respectively.</p><p><img src=\"http://img.zhitongcaijing.com/images/contentformat/887a942234cb8fe459a2f83e1d51371f.jpg\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"591\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><img src=\"http://img.zhitongcaijing.com/images/contentformat/62573bfd15fa133a1b4a5d4e236f878d.jpg\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"397\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><b>2. Demand: Japan's retail sales rebounded sharply year-on-year</b></p><p>Japan's retail sales and wholesale sales both rose sharply year-on-year. Japan's retail sales index in March was 5.3% year-on-year, of which textiles and clothing in retail sales were 15.8% year-on-year, and the wholesale sales index in March was 1.0% year-on-year.</p><p><img src=\"http://img.zhitongcaijing.com/images/contentformat/a115423dbfa92a2b68fd1ddba7b7202c.jpg\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"432\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>South Korea's retail sales continued to grow year-on-year in March, and semi-durable goods consumption increased significantly. South Korea's retail sales in March increased by 3.5 percentage points year-on-year to 13.5%, with semi-durable goods consumption growing the fastest, 35.5% year-on-year; Durable goods were 13.6% year-on-year, and non-durable goods were 6.5% year-on-year.</p><p><img src=\"http://img.zhitongcaijing.com/images/contentformat/660433692ab7c356ac6e92af5532c956.jpg\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"549\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><b>3. Supply and employment: New orders for durable goods in the United States rose year-on-month</b></p><p>U.S. durable goods inventories rose, and the growth rate of new orders rose year-on-month. U.S. durable goods inventories reached US $431.84 billion in March, a month-on-month increase of 1.0% and a year-on-year increase of 1.7%. New orders for durable goods in the United States rose by 0.5% month-on-month in March, a sharp increase of 25% year-on-year.</p><p><img src=\"http://img.zhitongcaijing.com/images/contentformat/00d167c28987b587b0353bdb22cabcb3.jpg\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"397\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>Japan's unemployment rate fell to 2.6% in March. Japan's unemployment rate fell 0.3 percentage points from the previous month to 2.6% in March. South Korea's industrial production index rose year-on-month, and the industry continued to rebound. South Korea's industrial production index rose 5.7% year-on-year and 0.8% month-on-month to 112.6 in March.</p><p><img src=\"http://img.zhitongcaijing.com/images/contentformat/3e518f69ea70eb9423bd2c4c0800a9d4.jpg\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"393\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>U.S. industrial materials production continues to rise. 1) In the week ending April 24, U.S. weekly crude steel production increased by 43.6% year-on-year, and capacity utilization increased slightly by 0.4 percentage points from last week to 78.4%; 2) As of April 23, the operational capacity utilization rate of U.S. refineries increased by 0.4 percentage points to 85.4%.</p><p><img src=\"http://img.zhitongcaijing.com/images/contentformat/08378049f4011957a1ca13a61b5f7ee9.jpg\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"395\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>The number of initial jobless claims in the United States fell slightly during the week, while the number of continuing jobless claims rose slightly. The number of initial jobless claims in the United States reached 553,000 in the week of April 24, a decrease of 13,000 from last week; The number of people who continued to apply for unemployment benefits in the week of April 17 reached 3.66 million, an increase of 9,000 from the previous month.</p><p><img src=\"http://img.zhitongcaijing.com/images/contentformat/50abaebb23322c65845134f36edf2eac.jpg\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"550\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><b>4. Trade: U.S. imports and exports rose sharply year-on-year in March</b></p><p>U.S. imports and exports both rose sharply year-on-year in March. U.S. export growth in March rose sharply by 16.5 percentage points from the previous month to 11.5%, and imports were 20.6% year-on-year. The U.S. merchandise trade balance in March was-$90.59 billion.</p><p><img src=\"http://img.zhitongcaijing.com/images/contentformat/b94fcaf0b73f26e0f7e86a9f8b746b80.jpg\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"549\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><b>5. Inflation and commodities: Oil prices rise slightly</b></p><p>EIA crude oil inventories rose by 9 million barrels in the week of April 28, while U.S. crude oil production fell slightly by 100,000 barrels per day to 10.9 million barrels per day. As of April 29, the weekly average price of WTI crude oil rose to US $63.2/barrel; The weekly average price of Brent oil rose to US $66.6/barrel.</p><p><img src=\"http://img.zhitongcaijing.com/images/contentformat/2ea9504a69c4ccccc0e74ff1a56da96e.jpg\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"396\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><img src=\"http://img.zhitongcaijing.com/images/contentformat/e2a42a869453a51bf63a352119f75e6a.jpg\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"402\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><b>6. Real estate: The U.S. existing home contract sales index rose year-on-year in March</b></p><p>The U.S. S&P/CS home price index rose for eight consecutive months in February. In February, the U.S. S&P/CS home price index rose 11.9% year-on-year to 246.0, rising for eight consecutive months. The U.S. existing home contract sales index in March rose by 23.3% year-on-year and 1.9% month-on-month.</p><p><img src=\"http://img.zhitongcaijing.com/images/contentformat/6ac3751240b8a02c34f4c66d93fb255b.jpg\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"398\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>Japan's new housing starts and construction orders rose sharply in March. Japan's new housing starts in March were 1.5% year-on-year and 18.1% month-on-month. The number of construction orders in March was 12.5% year-on-year and 192.7% month-on-month, the highest increase in nearly a year.</p><p><img src=\"http://img.zhitongcaijing.com/images/contentformat/e961519800be12d5e185f10acff56a58.jpg\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"392\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>U.S. 5-year mortgage rates fell, while 15-year, 30-year mortgage rates rose. In the week ending April 29, the 5-year mortgage rate fell by 0.2 percentage points to 2.6%, while the 15-year and 30-year mortgage rates rose to 2.3% and 3.0% respectively. As of the week of April 23, the U.S. MBA market index fell by 18.2 to 706.6, and the housing market fell slightly.</p><p><img src=\"http://img.zhitongcaijing.com/images/contentformat/2eb2b206b830b79a11aed2265d986bec.jpg\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"395\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><b>7. Monetary policy and exchange rate: the US Dollar Index fell, gold prices were basically stable</b></p><p>The Federal Reserve's interest rate meeting was held this week. Powell's speech was dovish, the US Dollar Index fell, and gold prices were basically stable. On April 28, local time, the Federal Reserve announced a statement on the interest rate meeting. Powell said at the press conference after the meeting that it will still take some time to see substantial progress. Before that, the current scale of asset purchases will be maintained. It is not yet time to discuss Taper. the US Dollar Index continues to decline. As of April 29, the US Dollar Index closed at 90.6140, down 0.7% from last week; The exchange rates of the euro and pound against the US dollar (pound exchange rate data as of the 28th) closed at 1.2129 and 1.3906 respectively, appreciating 0.7% and depreciating 0.2% respectively from last week; As the Bank of Canada took the lead in Taper, the Canadian dollar strengthened, closing at 1.2292, an appreciation of 1.7% from last week. The average weekly gold price in London this week was US $1,774.8 per ounce, which was basically stable from last week, and the year-on-year increase fell by 1.2 pct from last week to 3.6%.</p><p><img src=\"http://img.zhitongcaijing.com/images/contentformat/c2e4e8d549f84a56f7d651806cc3a657.jpg\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"398\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><img src=\"http://img.zhitongcaijing.com/images/contentformat/09b461fbeb60aed3abf2e7ffd691b486.jpg\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"551\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>","source":"highlight_zhitongcaijin","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Is the GDP of the United States strong or weak in the first quarter?</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nIs the GDP of the United States strong or weak in the first quarter?\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">智通财经网</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-05-02 15:45</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><b>This article comes from \"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/000166\">Shenwan Hongyuan</a>Macro \".</b></p><p>SUMMARY</p><p><b>1. Zhou's point of view: Is the GDP of the United States strong or weak in the first quarter?</b></p><p><b>U.S. GDP in 21Q1 was 0.4% year-on-year, slightly lower than market expectations.</b>The actual 21Q1 GDP of the United States was 0.4% year-on-year, turning positive year-on-year for the first time since the epidemic, and 1.6% month-on-month. The main contributing factors are commodity consumption, service consumption, and non-residential investment, showing the rapid recovery of the U.S. economy under the improvement of the epidemic and fiscal subsidies. However, the main drag items are changes in private inventories and imports. In fact, the GDP growth rate of the United States in the first quarter was slightly lower than market expectations, indicating that the market lacks understanding of the slow recovery of production caused by excessive fiscal subsidies in the United States, and is overly optimistic about the improvement of the epidemic. expectations.</p><p><b>Household consumption: Subsidies promote commodity consumption, and the epidemic situation eases and the service industry recovers.</b>1) In 21Q1, U.S. personal consumption expenditures drove GDP by 1.1 percentage points year-on-year, a significant improvement of 3 percentage points from 20Q4. Commodity consumption is mainly driven by durable goods, while service consumption has a greater improvement in GDP than durable goods consumption; 2) From a monthly high-frequency perspective, PCE in March was 8.5% year-on-year and 3.7% month-on-month. It strengthened again after falling slightly during the direct subsidy vacuum period in February. It shows the immediate stimulating effect of the subsidy of US $1,400 in March on consumption, as well as the recovery of service consumption under the relaxation of prevention and control measures. However, judging from the intensity of the recovery of service consumption, it is actually slightly weaker than the overly optimistic expectations of overseas markets in February-March.</p><p><b>Investment: Equipment investment has improved significantly, interest rates have suppressed real estate investment, and inventory replenishment has not occurred.</b>In 21Q1, domestic private investment drove GDP by 0.8 percentage points year-on-year, a slight improvement of 0.1 percentage points from the fourth quarter. 1) The improvement in non-residential investment shows that the U.S. production sector's expectations for the economic outlook have improved; 2) The year-on-year decline in the contribution of private inventory changes to 21Q1 GDP is a manifestation of the tear between supply and demand in the U.S. economy. Strong demand and slow recovery of production have led to a decline in inventory. This means that the strengthening of commodity prices in Q1 cannot be supported by U.S. industrial production. Supported by strong and active inventory replenishment logic; 3) The year-on-year contribution of residential investment to GDP remained basically stable, while the month-on-month growth rate was suppressed by the overall increase in U.S. interest rates in the previous period. The follow-up is expected to continue to cool down with the medium-term upward process of interest rates.</p><p><b>Government expenditure and net exports: Subsidies drive the increase of government expenditure, and the widening gap between supply and demand leads to the high increase of imports.</b>The tear between supply and demand in the U.S. economy has caused net exports to deepen the drag on GDP again. Net exports in 21Q1 dragged down GDP by 2 percentage points year-on-year, and the degree of drag was 0.7 percentage points higher than that in 20Q4. Government expenditure in 21Q1 boosted GDP by 0.1 percentage points year-on-year, mainly due to the U.S. government's issuance of direct subsidy checks to residents to the banking system and the cost of purchasing vaccines.</p><p><b>It is expected that the U.S. economic recovery will reach a high point in the second quarter. Pay attention to the follow-up progress of the epidemic.</b>We believe that the strength of future U.S. economic recovery depends on the vaccination process and the spread of COVID-19 pandemic. Under the assumption that the epidemic situation in the United States continues to ease and the service industry gradually recovers, the second quarter is expected to be the highest point for the recovery of the U.S. economy. However, the tear between supply and demand caused by excessive subsidies will continue until September, and the intensity of the recovery of the U.S. economy during the year may not be as strong as the market expected. Personal consumption expenditure: It is expected that the first quarter will be the high point of commodity consumption, and service industry consumption will continue to gradually recover as the epidemic eases. However, the spread of more contagious virus variants in the United States and overseas countries will also affect the subsequent recovery intensity of service industry; Investment: The improvement of non-residential investment needs to pay attention to the subsequent progress of the epidemic. Residential investment will decline with the gradual cooling of the real estate market; Private inventory changes may wait until September after the end of unemployment benefits. Government expenditure and net exports: Government expenditure is expected to continue to make a positive contribution to GDP year-on-year before the fourth quarter. Net exports will return to normal levels as the gap between supply and demand narrows later this year.</p><p><b>2. Global macro data</b></p><p><b>High-frequency data this week</b>: New orders for durable goods in the United States increased year-on-month</p><p><b>Epidemic</b>: New confirmed cases in the United States declined.</p><p><b>Demand</b>: Japan's retail sales rebounded sharply year-on-year.</p><p><b>Supply and employment</b>: New orders for durable goods in the United States increased year-on-month.</p><p><b>Trade</b>: U.S. imports and exports both rose sharply year-on-year in March.</p><p><b>Inflation and Commodities</b>: Oil prices rose slightly.</p><p><b>Real Estate</b>: The U.S. existing home contract sales index rose in March.</p><p><b>Monetary policy and exchange rates</b>: the US Dollar Index falls, gold prices stabilize.</p><p><b>Global Macro Calendar</b>: Focus on US ISM Manufacturing PMI</p><p>text</p><p><b>1. Zhou's point of view: Is the GDP of the United States strong or weak in the first quarter?</b></p><p><b>1.21 Q1 U.S. GDP was 0.4% year-on-year, slightly lower than market expectations</b></p><p>The actual 21Q1 GDP of the United States was 0.4% year-on-year, turning positive year-on-year for the first time since the epidemic, and 1.6% month-on-month. The main contributing factors are commodity consumption, service consumption, and non-residential investment, showing the relatively rapid recovery of the U.S. economy under the improvement of the epidemic and fiscal subsidies. The main drag items are changes in private inventories and imports. In fact, the GDP growth rate of the United States in the first quarter was slightly lower than market expectations, indicating that the market lacks understanding of the slow recovery of production caused by excessive fiscal subsidies in the United States, and is overly optimistic about the improvement of the epidemic. expectations.</p><p><img src=\"http://img.zhitongcaijing.com/images/contentformat/867b3b31bf5a4410ca85884cf283ce1f.jpg\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"588\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><b>2. Household consumption: Subsidies promote commodity consumption, and the epidemic eases and the service industry recovers</b></p><p>In 21Q1, financial subsidies of up to 2,000 USD/person stimulate commodity consumption; The easing of the epidemic has promoted the recovery of service consumption, but it is slightly weaker than the early optimistic expectations of overseas markets. 1) From a quarterly perspective, U.S. personal consumption expenditure in 21Q1 drove GDP by 1.1 percentage points year-on-year, a significant improvement of 3 percentage points from 20Q4. It jumped from the largest drag on GDP in the fourth quarter to the largest contribution, showing that the first quarter also had The stimulating effect of the US $600 subsidy in January and the US $1,400 subsidy issued in March on consumption, as well as the gradual release of service consumption as the epidemic eases. 2) From the perspective of monthly high frequency, PCE in March reached 8.5% year-on-year and 3.7% month-on-month. It strengthened again after falling slightly during the direct subsidy vacuum period in February. Among them, the year-on-year growth rate of durable goods and service consumption increased again, reaching 43.3% and 4.8% respectively in March, while non-durable goods slowed down slightly (4.3%) year-on-year, indicating that the subsidy of US $1,400 in March had an immediate stimulus effect on consumption, and the recovery of service consumption under the relaxation of prevention and control measures. However, judging from the intensity of the recovery of service consumption, it is actually slightly weaker than the overly optimistic expectations of overseas markets in February-March.</p><p><img src=\"http://img.zhitongcaijing.com/images/contentformat/fb6a3cdada866cc05b11f3b44abb7b40.jpg\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"398\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>Commodity consumption and service consumption jointly drive the high increase of personal consumption expenditure. 1) Commodity consumption is mainly driven by durable goods. Commodity consumption in 21Q1 boosted GDP by 3.2 percentage points, an improvement of 1.5 percentage points compared with 20Q4, mainly due to the high growth of durable goods again under the fiscal stimulus in the first quarter. The contribution of durable goods to GDP in 21Q1 improved significantly by 1.3 percentage points compared with the fourth quarter, while the contribution of non-durable goods to GDP only slightly improved by 0.3 percentage points; 2) The improvement of service consumption on GDP is greater than that of durable goods consumption. Although service consumption in 21Q1 still has a negative pull of-1.4% on GDP, it has improved significantly by 1.6 percentage points compared with the previous quarter, and the improvement rate is even greater than that of durable goods consumption, showing that service consumption has improved under the dual factors of fiscal subsidies and epidemic easing. The flexibility is greater.</p><p><img src=\"http://img.zhitongcaijing.com/images/contentformat/e8b1b37f95a3c799e28a194bc63e56e7.jpg\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"399\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><b>3. Investment: Equipment investment has improved significantly, interest rates have suppressed real estate investment, and inventory replenishment has not occurred</b></p><p>The effect of non-residential investment on GDP has been greatly improved, and private inventory has turned into a drag. In 21Q1, domestic private investment drove GDP by 0.8 percentage points year-on-year, a slight improvement of 0.1 percentage points from the fourth quarter.</p><p>1) The improvement in non-residential investment shows that the U.S. production sector's expectations for the economic outlook have improved. The main contributor to the improvement of private investment is non-residential investment (an improvement of 0.6 percentage points), which mainly comes from equipment investment, indicating that manufacturing companies remain optimistic about the prospects for economic recovery.</p><p>2) The year-on-year decline in the contribution of private inventory changes to 21Q1 GDP is a manifestation of the tear between supply and demand in the U.S. economy. Strong demand and slow recovery of production have led to a decline in inventories. This means that the strengthening of commodity prices in Q1 cannot be supported by U.S. industrial production. Supported by strong and active inventory replenishment logic. The main drag on private investment was the change of private inventory (0.4 percentage points).</p><p>3) The year-on-year contribution of residential investment to GDP remained basically stable, while the month-on-month growth rate was suppressed by the overall increase in U.S. interest rates in the previous period. The follow-up is expected to continue to cool down with the medium-term upward process of interest rates. The pull of residential investment on GDP in 21Q1 remained stable. However, with the gradual increase of mortgage interest rates in the past 21 years, the U.S. real estate market has cooled down, and residential construction expenditures and existing home sales have slowed down. It is expected that subsequent residential investment will have an impact on GDP. The pulling effect will gradually decline.</p><p><img src=\"http://img.zhitongcaijing.com/images/contentformat/8831f8bd60fdfc9671df61b6e741faaa.jpg\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"393\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><b>4. Government expenditure and net exports: Subsidies drive the increase of government expenditure, and the widening gap between supply and demand leads to the high increase of imports</b></p><p>The tear between supply and demand in the U.S. economy has caused net exports to deepen the drag on GDP again. Net exports in 21Q1 dragged down GDP by 2 percentage points year-on-year, and the degree of drag was 0.7 percentage points higher than that in 20Q4. 1) Exports dragged down by 1 percentage point, but have improved by 0.2 percentage points from the previous quarter, showing a slight recovery in U.S. industrial production, but it is still dwarfed by the 3.0 percentage point improvement in personal consumption expenditures. What actually reflects the excessive fiscal subsidies in the United States. The widening gap between supply and demand in 21Q1; 2) Imports dragged down GDP by 1.0 percentage points year-on-year in 21Q1, a significant increase of 0.9 percentage points compared with the previous quarter. The direct consequence of the widening gap between supply and demand in the United States is the expansion of import scale.</p><p>Government expenditure in 21Q1 boosted GDP by 0.1 percentage points year-on-year, mainly due to the U.S. government's issuance of direct subsidy checks to residents to the banking system and the cost of purchasing vaccines.</p><p><img src=\"http://img.zhitongcaijing.com/images/contentformat/1e6d4ceb162a00ae93de51b3cf6bb71b.jpg\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"386\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><b>5. The U.S. economic recovery is expected to reach a high point in the second quarter, and pay attention to the follow-up progress of the epidemic</b></p><p>Looking ahead, we believe that the strength of future U.S. economic recovery depends on the vaccination process and the spread of COVID-19 pandemic. Under the assumption that the epidemic situation in the United States continues to ease and the service industry gradually recovers, the second quarter is expected to be the highest point for the recovery of the U.S. economy. However, the tear between supply and demand caused by excessive subsidies will continue until September, and the intensity of the recovery of the U.S. economy during the year may not be as strong as the market expected.</p><p>Personal consumption expenditure: 1) Although commodity consumption in 21Q1 showed extremely strong momentum, we expect that the first quarter was already the high point of commodity consumption, and it will gradually decline as subsidies ebb; 2) Consumption in the service industry will continue to gradually recover as the epidemic eases, but the global epidemic has rebounded since March, especially in European countries and emerging countries. At the same time, the spread of more contagious virus variants in the United States and overseas countries will also affect the subsequent recovery intensity of the service industry.</p><p>Investment: 1) The main driving force for the improvement of non-residential investment in 21Q1 is the expectation of economic improvement. From the current point of view, the global epidemic is the core factor that determines the intensity of economic recovery, and we need to pay attention to the subsequent progress of the epidemic; 2) Residential investment will decline as the real estate market gradually cools down; 3) Changes in private inventories, that is, the intensity of inventory replenishment will depend on whether the current situation of the tearing between supply and demand in the United States can be alleviated. From the current point of view, it may not be until the end of unemployment subsidies in September that there will be a significant bridging trend between the supply and demand ends in the United States. Then drive inventory investment.</p><p>Government expenditure and net exports: 1) As unemployment subsidies continue to be paid in the second and third quarters, government expenditure is expected to continue to make a positive contribution to GDP year-on-year before the fourth quarter, and if the U.S. employment plan or the U.S. household plan can be implemented within the year, it will also boost the level of government spending; In terms of net exports, exports will depend on the progress of the recovery of U.S. industrial production. As mentioned above, it may not be boosted until the fourth quarter. Imports, on the contrary, will fall back to normal as the gap between supply and demand narrows later this year. level.</p><p><img src=\"http://img.zhitongcaijing.com/images/contentformat/32e1b124c2e79173310a2a69f29f1ee7.jpg\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"547\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><b>2. Global macro data: New confirmed cases in the United States decreased</b></p><p><b>1. Epidemic situation: New confirmed cases in the United States decreased</b></p><p>The number of new confirmed cases in the United States dropped this week. The average number of newly diagnosed cases in the United States dropped to more than 53,000 on the 7th day. As of April 29, the total number of confirmed cases in COVID-19 pandemic worldwide exceeded 150 million, the total number of deaths was 3.14 million, and the total number of recovered cases was 120 million. In the four days of this week (April 27-April 30), there were 220,000 and 9,000 new confirmed cases in the United States and the United Kingdom respectively.</p><p>As of April 28, the most COVID-19 vaccine vaccinations per 100 people worldwide were in Israel, reaching 121.1 shots per 100 people, 70.2 shots per 100 people in the United States, and 70.9 shots per 100 people in the United Kingdom. As of April 28, Israel has the highest proportion of fully vaccinated people in the world, reaching 58.7%, while the United States and the United Kingdom have 29.3% and 20.7% respectively.</p><p><img src=\"http://img.zhitongcaijing.com/images/contentformat/887a942234cb8fe459a2f83e1d51371f.jpg\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"591\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><img src=\"http://img.zhitongcaijing.com/images/contentformat/62573bfd15fa133a1b4a5d4e236f878d.jpg\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"397\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><b>2. Demand: Japan's retail sales rebounded sharply year-on-year</b></p><p>Japan's retail sales and wholesale sales both rose sharply year-on-year. Japan's retail sales index in March was 5.3% year-on-year, of which textiles and clothing in retail sales were 15.8% year-on-year, and the wholesale sales index in March was 1.0% year-on-year.</p><p><img src=\"http://img.zhitongcaijing.com/images/contentformat/a115423dbfa92a2b68fd1ddba7b7202c.jpg\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"432\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>South Korea's retail sales continued to grow year-on-year in March, and semi-durable goods consumption increased significantly. South Korea's retail sales in March increased by 3.5 percentage points year-on-year to 13.5%, with semi-durable goods consumption growing the fastest, 35.5% year-on-year; Durable goods were 13.6% year-on-year, and non-durable goods were 6.5% year-on-year.</p><p><img src=\"http://img.zhitongcaijing.com/images/contentformat/660433692ab7c356ac6e92af5532c956.jpg\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"549\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><b>3. Supply and employment: New orders for durable goods in the United States rose year-on-month</b></p><p>U.S. durable goods inventories rose, and the growth rate of new orders rose year-on-month. U.S. durable goods inventories reached US $431.84 billion in March, a month-on-month increase of 1.0% and a year-on-year increase of 1.7%. New orders for durable goods in the United States rose by 0.5% month-on-month in March, a sharp increase of 25% year-on-year.</p><p><img src=\"http://img.zhitongcaijing.com/images/contentformat/00d167c28987b587b0353bdb22cabcb3.jpg\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"397\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>Japan's unemployment rate fell to 2.6% in March. Japan's unemployment rate fell 0.3 percentage points from the previous month to 2.6% in March. South Korea's industrial production index rose year-on-month, and the industry continued to rebound. South Korea's industrial production index rose 5.7% year-on-year and 0.8% month-on-month to 112.6 in March.</p><p><img src=\"http://img.zhitongcaijing.com/images/contentformat/3e518f69ea70eb9423bd2c4c0800a9d4.jpg\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"393\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>U.S. industrial materials production continues to rise. 1) In the week ending April 24, U.S. weekly crude steel production increased by 43.6% year-on-year, and capacity utilization increased slightly by 0.4 percentage points from last week to 78.4%; 2) As of April 23, the operational capacity utilization rate of U.S. refineries increased by 0.4 percentage points to 85.4%.</p><p><img src=\"http://img.zhitongcaijing.com/images/contentformat/08378049f4011957a1ca13a61b5f7ee9.jpg\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"395\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>The number of initial jobless claims in the United States fell slightly during the week, while the number of continuing jobless claims rose slightly. The number of initial jobless claims in the United States reached 553,000 in the week of April 24, a decrease of 13,000 from last week; The number of people who continued to apply for unemployment benefits in the week of April 17 reached 3.66 million, an increase of 9,000 from the previous month.</p><p><img src=\"http://img.zhitongcaijing.com/images/contentformat/50abaebb23322c65845134f36edf2eac.jpg\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"550\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><b>4. Trade: U.S. imports and exports rose sharply year-on-year in March</b></p><p>U.S. imports and exports both rose sharply year-on-year in March. U.S. export growth in March rose sharply by 16.5 percentage points from the previous month to 11.5%, and imports were 20.6% year-on-year. The U.S. merchandise trade balance in March was-$90.59 billion.</p><p><img src=\"http://img.zhitongcaijing.com/images/contentformat/b94fcaf0b73f26e0f7e86a9f8b746b80.jpg\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"549\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><b>5. Inflation and commodities: Oil prices rise slightly</b></p><p>EIA crude oil inventories rose by 9 million barrels in the week of April 28, while U.S. crude oil production fell slightly by 100,000 barrels per day to 10.9 million barrels per day. As of April 29, the weekly average price of WTI crude oil rose to US $63.2/barrel; The weekly average price of Brent oil rose to US $66.6/barrel.</p><p><img src=\"http://img.zhitongcaijing.com/images/contentformat/2ea9504a69c4ccccc0e74ff1a56da96e.jpg\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"396\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><img src=\"http://img.zhitongcaijing.com/images/contentformat/e2a42a869453a51bf63a352119f75e6a.jpg\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"402\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><b>6. Real estate: The U.S. existing home contract sales index rose year-on-year in March</b></p><p>The U.S. S&P/CS home price index rose for eight consecutive months in February. In February, the U.S. S&P/CS home price index rose 11.9% year-on-year to 246.0, rising for eight consecutive months. The U.S. existing home contract sales index in March rose by 23.3% year-on-year and 1.9% month-on-month.</p><p><img src=\"http://img.zhitongcaijing.com/images/contentformat/6ac3751240b8a02c34f4c66d93fb255b.jpg\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"398\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>Japan's new housing starts and construction orders rose sharply in March. Japan's new housing starts in March were 1.5% year-on-year and 18.1% month-on-month. The number of construction orders in March was 12.5% year-on-year and 192.7% month-on-month, the highest increase in nearly a year.</p><p><img src=\"http://img.zhitongcaijing.com/images/contentformat/e961519800be12d5e185f10acff56a58.jpg\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"392\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>U.S. 5-year mortgage rates fell, while 15-year, 30-year mortgage rates rose. In the week ending April 29, the 5-year mortgage rate fell by 0.2 percentage points to 2.6%, while the 15-year and 30-year mortgage rates rose to 2.3% and 3.0% respectively. As of the week of April 23, the U.S. MBA market index fell by 18.2 to 706.6, and the housing market fell slightly.</p><p><img src=\"http://img.zhitongcaijing.com/images/contentformat/2eb2b206b830b79a11aed2265d986bec.jpg\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"395\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><b>7. Monetary policy and exchange rate: the US Dollar Index fell, gold prices were basically stable</b></p><p>The Federal Reserve's interest rate meeting was held this week. Powell's speech was dovish, the US Dollar Index fell, and gold prices were basically stable. On April 28, local time, the Federal Reserve announced a statement on the interest rate meeting. Powell said at the press conference after the meeting that it will still take some time to see substantial progress. Before that, the current scale of asset purchases will be maintained. It is not yet time to discuss Taper. the US Dollar Index continues to decline. As of April 29, the US Dollar Index closed at 90.6140, down 0.7% from last week; The exchange rates of the euro and pound against the US dollar (pound exchange rate data as of the 28th) closed at 1.2129 and 1.3906 respectively, appreciating 0.7% and depreciating 0.2% respectively from last week; As the Bank of Canada took the lead in Taper, the Canadian dollar strengthened, closing at 1.2292, an appreciation of 1.7% from last week. The average weekly gold price in London this week was US $1,774.8 per ounce, which was basically stable from last week, and the year-on-year increase fell by 1.2 pct from last week to 3.6%.</p><p><img src=\"http://img.zhitongcaijing.com/images/contentformat/c2e4e8d549f84a56f7d651806cc3a657.jpg\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"398\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><img src=\"http://img.zhitongcaijing.com/images/contentformat/09b461fbeb60aed3abf2e7ffd691b486.jpg\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"551\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> source：<a href=\"http://www.zhitongcaijing.com/content/detail/466474.html\">智通财经网</a></p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://img.zhitongcaijing.com/image/20210501/20210501134714_46528.png?x-oss-process=image/format,jpg/quality,Q_80/resize,w_250","relate_stocks":{".DJI":"道琼斯"},"source_url":"http://www.zhitongcaijing.com/content/detail/466474.html","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/6ca2dcdccfa2217fb20a0351f4efe814","article_id":"2132567538","content_text":"本文来自“申万宏源宏观”。摘要一、周观点：美国一季度GDP究竟是偏强还是偏弱?21Q1美国GDP同比0.4%，略低于市场预期。美国21Q1  GDP实际同比0.4%，疫情以来首次同比转正，环比1.6%。主要贡献因素为商品消费、服务消费、非住宅投资，显示出疫情改善+财政补贴下美国经济快速复苏。但主要拖累项为私人存货变动及进口，且实际上，美国一季度GDP增速是小幅低于市场预期的，显示市场对美国过度财政补贴导致生产恢复缓慢的认识不足，以及对疫情改善过度乐观的预期。居民消费：补贴推动商品消费，疫情缓和服务业修复。1)21Q1美国个人消费支出拉动GDP同比1.1个百分点，较20Q4大幅改善3个百分点。商品消费主要为耐用品推动，而服务消费对GDP拉动的改善幅度大于耐用品消费;2)月度高频角度，3月PCE同比8.5%，环比3.7%，在2月直接补贴真空期小幅回落后再度走强。显示3月1400美金补贴发放对于消费立竿见影的刺激效果，以及防控措施放松下服务消费的恢复。但从服务消费恢复的强度来看，实际上略弱于2-3月海外市场的过度乐观预期。投资：设备投资改善显著，利率抑制地产投资，补库存并未出现。21Q1国内私人投资拉动GDP同比0.8个百分点，较4季度小幅改善0.1个百分点。1)非住宅投资改善显示美国生产部门对经济前景预期有所改善;2)私人存货变动对21Q1  GDP同比贡献的下降是美国经济供需撕裂的体现，需求旺盛而生产恢复缓慢，从而导致库存下降，这也就意味着Q1大宗商品价格的走强并不能得到美国工业生产强劲、主动补库存逻辑的支持;3)住宅投资对GDP同比贡献基本保持稳定，环比增速则随前期美国利率的整体抬升而受到抑制。后续预计将随着利率的中期上行过程而持续降温。政府支出和净出口：补贴推动政府支出增加，供需缺口拉大导致进口高增。美国经济供需撕裂导致净出口对GDP拖累程度再度加深。21Q1净出口拖累GDP同比2个百分点，拖累程度较上20Q4扩大0.7个百分点。政府支出21Q1对GDP同比拉动0.1个百分点，主要由于美国政府向银行体系发放针对居民的直接补贴支票以及购买疫苗费用。预计美国经济复苏2季度为高点，关注疫情后续进展。我们认为未来美国经济恢复的强度依赖于疫苗接种进程，以及新冠疫情的扩散情况。在美国疫情持续缓和、服务业渐进修复的假设下，预计2季度为美国经济恢复高点，但由于过度补贴导致的供需撕裂情况将持续到9月份，年内美国经济恢复的强度或将不会如市场预期一般强劲。个人消费支出：预计1季度是商品消费高点，服务业消费将继续随着疫情缓和而渐进式恢复，但美国本土及海外国家传染性更强的病毒变种的传播也将影响后续服务业恢复强度;投资：非住宅投资的改善需要关注后续疫情进展。住宅投资将随着地产市场的逐步降温而走低;私人库存变动或要等到9月失业补贴结束之后得以改善。政府支出和净出口：政府支出预计将在4季度前持续对GDP同比形成正贡献。净出口将随着今年后期供需缺口的收窄而回到正常水平。二、全球宏观数据本周高频数据：美国耐用品新订单同环比均上升疫情：美国新增确诊病例下降。需求：日本零售销售同比大幅回升。供给与就业：美国耐用品新订单同环比均上升。贸易：美国3月进出口同比均大幅上升。通胀和大宗商品：油价小幅上行。房地产：美3月成屋签约销售指数上升。货币政策和汇率：美元指数下跌，黄金价格稳定。全球宏观日历：关注美国ISM制造业PMI正文一、周观点：美国一季度GDP究竟是偏强还是偏弱?1.21Q1美国GDP同比0.4%，略低于市场预期美国21Q1GDP实际同比0.4%，疫情以来首次同比转正，环比1.6%。主要贡献因素为商品消费、服务消费、非住宅投资，显示出疫情改善+财政补贴下美国经济相对较快的复苏。主要拖累项为私人存货变动及进口，且实际上，美国一季度GDP增速是小幅低于市场预期的，显示市场对美国过度财政补贴导致生产恢复缓慢的认识不足，以及对疫情改善过度乐观的预期。2.居民消费：补贴推动商品消费，疫情缓和服务业修复21Q1高达2000美金/人的财政补贴拉动商品消费;疫情缓和推动服务消费恢复，但略弱于前期海外市场乐观预期。1)从季度角度看，21Q1美国个人消费支出拉动GDP同比1.1个百分点，较20Q4大幅改善3个百分点，从4季度对GDP最大的拖累项一跃转为最大的贡献项，显示一季度同时具备1月600美金补贴以及3月开始发放的1400美金补贴对消费的刺激效果，以及疫情缓和下服务消费的渐次释放。2)而从月度高频角度，3月PCE同比达到8.5%，环比3.7%，在2月直接补贴真空期小幅回落后再度走强。其中，耐用品、服务消费同比增速再度提升，3月分别达到43.3%和4.8%，而非耐用品同比略有放缓(4.3%)，显示3月1400美金补贴发放对于消费立竿见影的刺激效果，以及防控措施放松下服务消费的恢复。但从服务消费恢复的强度来看，实际上略弱于2-3月海外市场的过度乐观预期。商品消费、服务消费共同驱动个人消费支出高增。1)商品消费主要为耐用品推动。21Q1商品消费对GDP拉动3.2个百分点，较20Q4改善1.5个百分点，主要归功于耐用品在一季度财政刺激下再度高增，21Q1耐用品对GDP贡献度较4季度大幅改善1.3个百分点，而非耐用品对GDP贡献度仅小幅改善0.3个百分点;2)服务消费对GDP拉动效果的改善幅度大于耐用品消费。21Q1服务消费对GDP虽然仍为-1.4%的负拉动，但已较上季度大幅改善1.6个百分点，改善幅度更甚于耐用品消费，显示出服务消费在财政补贴+疫情缓和双重因素下改善的弹性更大。3.投资：设备投资改善显著，利率抑制地产投资，补库存并未出现非住宅投资对GDP拉动效果大幅改善，私人存货转为拖累。21Q1国内私人投资拉动GDP同比0.8个百分点，较4季度小幅改善0.1个百分点。1)非住宅投资改善显示美国生产部门对经济前景预期有所改善。私人投资改善的主要贡献因素为非住宅投资(改善0.6个百分点)，其中主要来自于设备投资，显示制造业企业对经济恢复前景保持乐观。2)私人存货变动对21Q1  GDP同比贡献的下降是美国经济供需撕裂的体现，需求旺盛而生产恢复缓慢，从而导致库存下降，这也就意味着Q1大宗商品价格的走强并不能得到美国工业生产强劲、主动补库存逻辑的支持。拖累私人投资的主要因素为私人存货变动(拖累0.4个百分点)。3)住宅投资对GDP同比贡献基本保持稳定，环比增速则随前期美国利率的整体抬升而受到抑制。后续预计将随着利率的中期上行过程而持续降温。21Q1住宅投资对GDP的拉动保持稳定，但随着21年以来抵押贷款利率的逐步上行，美国房地产市场已经有所降温，住宅营建支出、成屋销售已经有所放缓，预计后续住宅投资对GDP的拉动效果将逐步下降。4.政府支出和净出口：补贴推动政府支出增加，供需缺口拉大导致进口高增美国经济供需撕裂导致净出口对GDP拖累程度再度加深。21Q1净出口拖累GDP同比2个百分点，拖累程度较上20Q4扩大0.7个百分点。1)出口拖累1个百分点，但已较上个季度改善0.2个百分点，显示美国工业生产的小幅恢复，但相比个人消费支出3.0个百分点的改善幅度仍然相形见绌，实际体现的是美国过度财政补贴下21Q1供需缺口的拉大;2)而进口在21Q1拖累GDP同比1.0个百分点，拖累程度较上季度大幅扩大0.9个百分点，美国供需缺口拉大的直接后果便是进口规模的扩大。政府支出21Q1对GDP同比拉动0.1个百分点，主要由于美国政府向银行体系发放针对居民的直接补贴支票以及购买疫苗费用。5.预计美国经济复苏2季度为高点，关注疫情后续进展展望未来，我们认为未来美国经济恢复的强度依赖于疫苗接种进程，以及新冠疫情的扩散情况。在美国疫情持续缓和、服务业渐进修复的假设下，预计2季度为美国经济恢复高点，但由于过度补贴导致的供需撕裂情况将持续到9月份，年内美国经济恢复的强度或将不会如市场预期一般强劲。个人消费支出：1)虽然21Q1商品消费显示出极为强劲的势头，但我们预计1季度已经是商品消费高点，后续将随着补贴退潮而逐步回落;2)服务业消费将继续随着疫情缓和而渐进式恢复，但3月以来全球疫情有所反弹，特别是在欧洲国家以及新兴国家，同时美国本土及海外国家传染性更强的病毒变种的传播也将影响后续服务业恢复强度。投资：1)21Q1非住宅投资的改善主要驱动力为经济向好预期，而从当前时点来看，全球疫情是决定经济恢复强度的核心因素，需要关注后续疫情进展;2)住宅投资将随着地产市场的逐步降温而走低;3)私人库存变动，即补库存的力度将依赖于美国供需撕裂的现状是否能够缓和，从当前来看，或要等到9月失业补贴结束之后，美国供需两端才能出现显著的弥合趋势，进而带动库存投资。政府支出和净出口：1)随着失业补贴在2、3季度的持续发放，政府支出预计将在4季度前持续对GDP同比形成正贡献，而如果美国就业计划或美国家庭计划能够在年内落地，也将提振政府支出水平;净出口方面，出口将依赖于美国工业生产恢复的进度，如上文所说，或要到4季度才能得到提振，进口则恰恰相反，将随着今年后期供需缺口的收窄而回落到正常水平。二、全球宏观数据：美国新增确诊病例下降1.疫情：美国新增确诊病例下降本周美国新增确诊病例下降。美国新增确诊7日平均下降至5.3万人以上。截止4月29日，全球新冠疫情累计确诊超过1.5亿，累计死亡病例314万人，累计康复病例1.2亿人。本周四天(4月27日-4月30日)美国、英国分别新增确诊病例22万人和0.9万人。截止4月28日，全球范围内平均每百人接种新冠疫苗最多的是以色列，达每百人121.1针，美国每百人70.2针，英国每百人70.9针。截止4月28日，全球范围内完全接种疫苗的人占人口比例最高的是以色列，达58.7%，美国、英国分别为29.3%、20.7%。2.需求：日本零售销售同比大幅回升日本零售销售和批发销售同比均大幅上行。日本3月零售销售指数同比5.3%，其中零售中纺织服装同比15.8%，3月批发销售指数同比1.0%。韩国3月零售销售同比持续增长，半耐用品消费大幅增长。韩国3月零售销售同比较上月上升3.5个百分点至13.5%，其中半耐用品消费增速最快，同比35.5%;耐用品同比13.6%，非耐用品同比6.5%。3.供给与就业：美国耐用品新订单同环比均上升美国耐用品库存上升，新订单增速同环比均上升。3月美国耐用品库存达4318.4亿美元，环比上升1.0%，同比增长1.7%。美国3月耐用品新订单环比上升0.5%，同比大幅上升25%。日本3月失业率下降至2.6%。3月日本失业率较上月下降0.3个百分点至2.6%。韩国工业生产指数同环比均上升，工业持续回升。韩国3月工业生产指数同比上升5.7%，环比上升0.8%至112.6。美国工业材料生产持续上升。1)截止4月24日当周，美国周度粗钢产量同比上升43.6%，产能利用率较上周小幅上升0.4个百分点至78.4%;2)截止4月23日，美国炼油厂可运营能力利用率上升0.4个百分点至85.4%。美国当周初请失业金人数小幅下降，持续申领失业金人数小幅上升。4月24日当周美国初请失业金人数达55.3万人，环比上周下降1.3万人;4月17日当周持续申领失业金人数达366万人，环比上升0.9万人。4.贸易：美国3月进出口同比均大幅上升美国3月进出口同比均大幅上升。美国3月出口增速较上月大幅上升16.5个百分点至11.5%，进口同比20.6%。美国3月份商品贸易差额为-905.9亿美元。5.通胀和大宗商品：油价小幅上行4月28日当周EIA原油库存上升900万桶，美国原油产量小幅下降10万桶/日至1090万桶/日。截止4月29日，WTI原油周均价上升至63.2美元/桶;布油周均价上升至66.6美元/桶。6.房地产：美国3月成屋签约销售指数同比上升美国2月标普/CS房价指数连续8个月上涨。2月美国标普/CS房价指数同比上升11.9%至246.0，连续8个月上涨。美国3月成屋签约销售指数同比大幅23.3%，环比1.9%。日本3月新屋开工、营建订单大幅上行。日本3月新屋开工同比1.5%，环比18.1%，3月营建订单数同比12.5%，环比192.7%，涨幅达到近一年最高。美国5年期抵押贷款利率下降，15年期、30年期抵押贷款利率上升。截止4月29日当周，5年期抵押贷款利率下降0.2个百分点至2.6%，15年期、30年期抵押贷款利率分别上升至2.3%和3.0%。截止4月23日当周，美国MBA市场指数下降18.2至706.6，房市热度小幅回落。7.货币政策和汇率：美元指数下跌，黄金价格基本稳定本周美联储议息会议召开，鲍威尔发言偏鸽，美元指数下跌，黄金价格基本稳定。当地时间4月28日，美联储公布议息会议声明，鲍威尔在会后新闻发布会上表示看到实质性进展仍需一些时间，在此之前会维持当前的资产购买规模，现在还未到讨论Taper的时间，美元指数持续下行。截至4月29日，美元指数报收90.6140，较上周下行0.7%;欧元、英镑兑美元汇率(英镑汇率数据截至28日)分别报收1.2129、1.3906，分别较上周升值0.7%、贬值0.2%;由于加拿大央行率先Taper，加元走强，报收1.2292，较上周升值1.7%。本周伦敦金周均价1774.8美元/盎司，较上周基本稳定，同比涨幅较上周下行1.2pct至3.6%。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"UBmain":0.9,".DJI":0.9,"ZBmain":0.9,"ZNmain":0.9,"ZTmain":0.9,"ZFmain":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1149,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":101197072,"gmtCreate":1619856491896,"gmtModify":1704335809145,"author":{"id":"3573688531814941","authorId":"3573688531814941","name":"ccssyy","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/788037228f49cc166fdc5223f0073775","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3573688531814941","authorIdStr":"3573688531814941"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"?&nbsp;","listText":"?&nbsp;","text":"?","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/101197072","repostId":"2131556829","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1020,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":132073694,"gmtCreate":1622050102018,"gmtModify":1704178561059,"author":{"id":"3573688531814941","authorId":"3573688531814941","name":"ccssyy","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/788037228f49cc166fdc5223f0073775","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3573688531814941","authorIdStr":"3573688531814941"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Hi&nbsp;","listText":"Hi&nbsp;","text":"Hi","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/132073694","repostId":"2138519408","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"2138519408","kind":"highlight","pubTimestamp":1622011111,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/2138519408?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2021-05-26 14:38","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"Three major factors indicate that the \"water reverse period\" of technology stocks is still not over","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2138519408","media":"Wind资讯","summary":"随着市场对通胀的担忧有所消化，纳斯达克指数自5月19日以来反弹。但分析师表示，未来价格的波动因素、科技股当前估值及资金流向均表明，当前美股科技公司的回调尚未结束。\n4月29日，纳斯达克综合指数触及14","content":"<p>The Nasdaq has rebounded since May 19 as the market priced in inflation concerns. However, analysts said that future price fluctuations, current valuations of technology stocks and capital flows all indicate that the current correction of U.S. technology companies is not over yet.</p><p>On April 29, the Nasdaq Composite Index hit a record high of 14,211 points. Since then, the index has pulled back close to 3%. While the index's gain of more than 1.5% on Monday may reassure some investors, there are still challenges to the macro drivers of tech stocks that have led the market over the past 10 years.</p><p>RBC strategist Lori Calvasina said: \"We don't see anything wrong with the fundamentals of the tech space, but we think this is an overheld, overvalued part of the market, and it's a wrong macro backdrop for this part of the market right now.\"</p><p>The current backdrop for markets is that growth and inflation are accelerating as economies reopen after a pandemic-induced shock. As a result, sectors and investment styles that benefit more from accelerated GDP growth are preferred compared to sectors and investment styles that can gain growth in other environments.</p><p>Led by Parag Thatte<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/DB\">Deutsche Bank</a>Investors continue to put money into stocks and fixed income products seen as inflation winners, such as TIPS, energy, materials and financials, according to a report from strategists on Friday.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f3a6d3d53b8204d51b0cd1ebdb3c8fb7\" tg-width=\"796\" tg-height=\"691\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>Energy, materials, and financials also performed well in cyclical trading, value trading, and reopening trading. Commodity prices have soared, and so have expectations for infrastructure. Higher economic growth combined with higher interest rates has injected life into the financial system.</p><p>The money coming into this space comes from investors who are reducing tech deals. Calvasina said: \"We think inflationary pressures are already there and the technology sector is one of the biggest sources of funding to return to reflation... so we don't think it's the best time to return to this space yet.\"</p><p>In a report published last week, Calvasina and her team delved into the shift in investor style from different perspectives, trying to explore whether the pullback at Big Tech has been sufficient. And several reasons indicate that the current correction of technology companies is not over yet.</p><p>Calvasina noted that the current valuation of technology stocks is still on the high side relative to the rest of the market and the historical valuation of technology stocks. As we mentioned above, inflows have not been encouraging, with inflows to tech ETFs flat this year.</p><p><b>Economic data disappoints markets</b></p><p>The consumer confidence index fell short of expectations in April, and the Conference Board's overall confidence index fell more than expected last month. The Conference Board noted that the short-term income outlook is, at least in part, pressured by inflation concerns. A separate report released Tuesday morning showed home prices rose the most in 15 years in March, highlighting a mismatch between supply and demand in more critical areas of the economy that is pushing up home prices.</p><p>However, some members of the US Federal Open Market Committee (fomc) suggested that market participants may not need to worry that rising prices will lead to recent changes in monetary policy in the short term. St. Louis Federal Reserve Bank President James Bullard said on Monday<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/YHOO\">Yahoo!</a>Finance said he believes the rise in inflation is \"mostly temporary\" and that the Fed has \"not yet reached\" when discussing tapering asset purchases.</p><p>Kansas City Fed Chairman Ester George said in a separate commentary that she didn't want the Fed to \"rely too much on historical relationships and dynamics in judging the inflation outlook.\" Federal Reserve officials have recently made a series of speeches downplaying the need for short-term monetary policy measures that could dampen market gains.</p><p>While the last two days of trading have given investors at least a brief respite following last week's stock market sell-off, some strategists remain cautious about stocks given that inflation concerns remain high.</p><p>Shawn Cruz, senior market strategist at TD Ameritrade, told Yahoo Finance on Monday, \"Everyone knows now that they should be worried about inflationary pressures and the impact that this could have on monetary policy or corporate profitability.\" \"If they decide to keep rising input costs on the balance sheet, that's fine, at least on the consumer side, we won't see inflation rising, but when earnings come out (in the second quarter), we may see margins rising.\"</p><p>Others have also pointed out that the latest technology-led progress may be short-lived. Calvasina said: \"We still think inflationary pressures are there, and people are moving money away from technology stocks to other sectors, such as financials, energy stocks and materials stocks. We don't think these inflationary pressures will ease anytime soon.\"</p>","source":"wind","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Three major factors indicate that the \"water reverse period\" of technology stocks is still not over</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nThree major factors indicate that the \"water reverse period\" of technology stocks is still not over\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">Wind资讯</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-05-26 14:38</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>The Nasdaq has rebounded since May 19 as the market priced in inflation concerns. However, analysts said that future price fluctuations, current valuations of technology stocks and capital flows all indicate that the current correction of U.S. technology companies is not over yet.</p><p>On April 29, the Nasdaq Composite Index hit a record high of 14,211 points. Since then, the index has pulled back close to 3%. While the index's gain of more than 1.5% on Monday may reassure some investors, there are still challenges to the macro drivers of tech stocks that have led the market over the past 10 years.</p><p>RBC strategist Lori Calvasina said: \"We don't see anything wrong with the fundamentals of the tech space, but we think this is an overheld, overvalued part of the market, and it's a wrong macro backdrop for this part of the market right now.\"</p><p>The current backdrop for markets is that growth and inflation are accelerating as economies reopen after a pandemic-induced shock. As a result, sectors and investment styles that benefit more from accelerated GDP growth are preferred compared to sectors and investment styles that can gain growth in other environments.</p><p>Led by Parag Thatte<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/DB\">Deutsche Bank</a>Investors continue to put money into stocks and fixed income products seen as inflation winners, such as TIPS, energy, materials and financials, according to a report from strategists on Friday.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f3a6d3d53b8204d51b0cd1ebdb3c8fb7\" tg-width=\"796\" tg-height=\"691\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>Energy, materials, and financials also performed well in cyclical trading, value trading, and reopening trading. Commodity prices have soared, and so have expectations for infrastructure. Higher economic growth combined with higher interest rates has injected life into the financial system.</p><p>The money coming into this space comes from investors who are reducing tech deals. Calvasina said: \"We think inflationary pressures are already there and the technology sector is one of the biggest sources of funding to return to reflation... so we don't think it's the best time to return to this space yet.\"</p><p>In a report published last week, Calvasina and her team delved into the shift in investor style from different perspectives, trying to explore whether the pullback at Big Tech has been sufficient. And several reasons indicate that the current correction of technology companies is not over yet.</p><p>Calvasina noted that the current valuation of technology stocks is still on the high side relative to the rest of the market and the historical valuation of technology stocks. As we mentioned above, inflows have not been encouraging, with inflows to tech ETFs flat this year.</p><p><b>Economic data disappoints markets</b></p><p>The consumer confidence index fell short of expectations in April, and the Conference Board's overall confidence index fell more than expected last month. The Conference Board noted that the short-term income outlook is, at least in part, pressured by inflation concerns. A separate report released Tuesday morning showed home prices rose the most in 15 years in March, highlighting a mismatch between supply and demand in more critical areas of the economy that is pushing up home prices.</p><p>However, some members of the US Federal Open Market Committee (fomc) suggested that market participants may not need to worry that rising prices will lead to recent changes in monetary policy in the short term. St. Louis Federal Reserve Bank President James Bullard said on Monday<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/YHOO\">Yahoo!</a>Finance said he believes the rise in inflation is \"mostly temporary\" and that the Fed has \"not yet reached\" when discussing tapering asset purchases.</p><p>Kansas City Fed Chairman Ester George said in a separate commentary that she didn't want the Fed to \"rely too much on historical relationships and dynamics in judging the inflation outlook.\" Federal Reserve officials have recently made a series of speeches downplaying the need for short-term monetary policy measures that could dampen market gains.</p><p>While the last two days of trading have given investors at least a brief respite following last week's stock market sell-off, some strategists remain cautious about stocks given that inflation concerns remain high.</p><p>Shawn Cruz, senior market strategist at TD Ameritrade, told Yahoo Finance on Monday, \"Everyone knows now that they should be worried about inflationary pressures and the impact that this could have on monetary policy or corporate profitability.\" \"If they decide to keep rising input costs on the balance sheet, that's fine, at least on the consumer side, we won't see inflation rising, but when earnings come out (in the second quarter), we may see margins rising.\"</p><p>Others have also pointed out that the latest technology-led progress may be short-lived. Calvasina said: \"We still think inflationary pressures are there, and people are moving money away from technology stocks to other sectors, such as financials, energy stocks and materials stocks. We don't think these inflationary pressures will ease anytime soon.\"</p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> source：<a href=\"http://www.zhitongcaijing.com/content/detail/481817.html\">Wind资讯</a></p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9d770a193c6a88684d0203fd2ec91e4a","relate_stocks":{".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite"},"source_url":"http://www.zhitongcaijing.com/content/detail/481817.html","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2138519408","content_text":"随着市场对通胀的担忧有所消化，纳斯达克指数自5月19日以来反弹。但分析师表示，未来价格的波动因素、科技股当前估值及资金流向均表明，当前美股科技公司的回调尚未结束。\n4月29日，纳斯达克综合指数触及14211点的纪录高点。自那以来，该指数回调已接近3%。尽管该指数周一超过1.5%的涨幅可能会让一些投资者放心，但过去10年引领市场的科技股的宏观驱动力仍面临挑战。\nRBC策略师Lori Calvasina表示：“我们认为科技领域的基本面没有任何问题，但我们认为，这是市场上被过度持有、估值过高的一部分，目前对这部分市场来说，这是一个错误的宏观背景。”\n当前市场的背景是，随着经济在一场疫情引发的冲击后重新开放，增长和通胀正在加速。因此，与能够在其他环境中获得增长的领域和投资风格相比，从GDP加速增长中获益更多的行业和投资风格更受青睐。\n以Parag Thatte为首的德意志银行策略师上周五发布报告显示，投资者继续将资金投入被视为通胀赢家的股票和固定收益产品，如TIPS、能源、材料和金融类股。\n\n能源、材料和金融类股在周期性交易、价值交易和重新开放交易中也有很好的表现。大宗商品价格飙升，对基础设施的期望也在上升。更高的经济增长与更高的利率相结合，为金融体系注入了活力。\n进入这一领域的资金来自于减少科技交易的投资者。Calvasina称：\"我们认为通胀压力已经存在，科技行业是重返通货再膨胀的最大资金来源之一……所以我们认为现在还不是回到这个领域的最佳时机。”\n在上周发表的一份报告中，Calvasina和她的团队从不同的角度深入研究了投资者风格的转变，试图探索大型科技公司的回调是否已经充分。而几大原因表明，目前科技公司的回调尚未结束。\nCalvasina指出，相对于市场其他部分和科技股的历史估值，科技股当前的估值仍然偏高。正如我们上面提到的，资金流入情况并不令人鼓舞，今年科技ETF的资金流入持平。\n经济数据令市场失望\n4月份消费者信心指数低于预期，美国经济谘商会(Conference Board)上月的整体信心指数跌幅超过预期。美国经济谘商会指出，至少在一定程度上，短期收入前景受到通胀担忧的压力。周二上午公布的另一份报告显示，3月份房价创下15年来的最大涨幅，突显出经济中更多关键领域的供需不匹配推高了房价。\n不过，美国联邦公开市场委员会(fomc)部分成员暗示，市场人士可能不需要担心物价上涨会在短期内促成货币政策的近期变动。圣路易斯联邦储备银行总裁布拉德(James Bullard)周一对雅虎财经表示，他认为通胀上升\"大多是暂时的\"，而美联储在讨论缩减资产购买规模时\"还没有达到\"。\n堪萨斯城联邦储备银行主席埃斯特•乔治在另一篇评论中表示，她不希望美联储\"在判断通胀前景时过度依赖历史关系和动态\"。美联储官员最近发表了一系列讲话，淡化了采取短期货币政策措施的必要性，这些措施可能会抑制市场涨势。\n尽管在上周的股市抛售之后，过去两天的交易给投资者提供了至少短暂的喘息机会，但鉴于对通胀的担忧仍居高不下，一些策略师仍对股市持谨慎态度。\nTD Ameritrade高级市场策略师Shawn Cruz周一对雅虎财经表示，\"现在所有人都知道，他们应该担心通胀压力，以及这可能对货币政策或企业盈利能力造成的影响。\"“如果他们决定将不断上升的投入成本保留在资产负债表上，那很好，至少在消费者方面，我们不会看到通胀上升，但(第二季度)盈利出来时，我们可能会看到利润率上升。”\n其他人也指出，最新的技术引领的进步可能是短暂的。Calvasina表示：“我们仍认为通胀压力存在，人们将资金从科技股移至其他板块，如金融股、能源股和材料股。我们不认为这些通胀压力会在短期内减轻。”","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{".IXIC":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2928,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":262690950426928,"gmtCreate":1705167581334,"gmtModify":1705167585302,"author":{"id":"3573688531814941","authorId":"3573688531814941","name":"ccssyy","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/788037228f49cc166fdc5223f0073775","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3573688531814941","authorIdStr":"3573688531814941"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"🐂🐂🐂🐂🐂🐂🐂🐂🐂🐂🐂🐂🐂🐂🐂🐂🐂🐂🐂🐂🐂🐂🐂🐂🐂🐂🐂🐂🐂🐂🐂🐂🐂🐂🐂🐂🐂🐂🐂🐂🐂🐂🐂🐂🐂🐂🐂🐂🐂🐂🐂","listText":"🐂🐂🐂🐂🐂🐂🐂🐂🐂🐂🐂🐂🐂🐂🐂🐂🐂🐂🐂🐂🐂🐂🐂🐂🐂🐂🐂🐂🐂🐂🐂🐂🐂🐂🐂🐂🐂🐂🐂🐂🐂🐂🐂🐂🐂🐂🐂🐂🐂🐂🐂","text":"🐂🐂🐂🐂🐂🐂🐂🐂🐂🐂🐂🐂🐂🐂🐂🐂🐂🐂🐂🐂🐂🐂🐂🐂🐂🐂🐂🐂🐂🐂🐂🐂🐂🐂🐂🐂🐂🐂🐂🐂🐂🐂🐂🐂🐂🐂🐂🐂🐂🐂🐂","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/262690950426928","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2421,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":258903103000576,"gmtCreate":1704242648195,"gmtModify":1704242651687,"author":{"id":"3573688531814941","authorId":"3573688531814941","name":"ccssyy","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/788037228f49cc166fdc5223f0073775","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3573688531814941","authorIdStr":"3573688531814941"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"666","listText":"666","text":"666","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/258903103000576","repostId":"248312805347464","repostType":1,"repost":{"id":248312805347464,"gmtCreate":1701660745864,"gmtModify":1703059991513,"author":{"id":"3527667667103859","authorId":"3527667667103859","name":"TigerEvents","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/c266ef25181ace18bec1262357bbe1a8","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3527667667103859","authorIdStr":"3527667667103859"},"themes":[],"title":"🐅🌟 TIGER TYCOON CHALLENGE IS ON! 🌟🐅","htmlText":"Hey Tycoons! 🎩💼 Ready to embark on the adventure of a lifetime? Introducing the Tiger Tycoon Challenge – where fortunes are made, and USD 888 worth of prizes await the boldest players! 🏰🌈🎯 Objective: Build your empire, score big points, and unlock fabulous rewards!💰 Gold Rush: Grab those shiny gold coins every time you pass by it! Cha-ching! 💰💵🏠 Construct &amp; Conquer: Step on an empty tile to construct a building to gain points! 🏰🏆 Prizes Galore: Hit the prize tile to claim your treasure – it could be anything! 🎁✨🔄 Lucky Draw: Land on the draw tile and brace yourself! You might move forward, backward, or even unlock a secret power! 🔄🔮🚀 Airdrop Alert: Keep your eyes on the sky! Periodically, the Tiger Tycoon map will rain down special rewards like stocks, vouchers, and more. Fastest finge","listText":"Hey Tycoons! 🎩💼 Ready to embark on the adventure of a lifetime? Introducing the Tiger Tycoon Challenge – where fortunes are made, and USD 888 worth of prizes await the boldest players! 🏰🌈🎯 Objective: Build your empire, score big points, and unlock fabulous rewards!💰 Gold Rush: Grab those shiny gold coins every time you pass by it! Cha-ching! 💰💵🏠 Construct &amp; Conquer: Step on an empty tile to construct a building to gain points! 🏰🏆 Prizes Galore: Hit the prize tile to claim your treasure – it could be anything! 🎁✨🔄 Lucky Draw: Land on the draw tile and brace yourself! You might move forward, backward, or even unlock a secret power! 🔄🔮🚀 Airdrop Alert: Keep your eyes on the sky! Periodically, the Tiger Tycoon map will rain down special rewards like stocks, vouchers, and more. Fastest finge","text":"Hey Tycoons! 🎩💼 Ready to embark on the adventure of a lifetime? Introducing the Tiger Tycoon Challenge – where fortunes are made, and USD 888 worth of prizes await the boldest players! 🏰🌈🎯 Objective: Build your empire, score big points, and unlock fabulous rewards!💰 Gold Rush: Grab those shiny gold coins every time you pass by it! Cha-ching! 💰💵🏠 Construct & Conquer: Step on an empty tile to construct a building to gain points! 🏰🏆 Prizes Galore: Hit the prize tile to claim your treasure – it could be anything! 🎁✨🔄 Lucky Draw: Land on the draw tile and brace yourself! You might move forward, backward, or even unlock a secret power! 🔄🔮🚀 Airdrop Alert: Keep your eyes on the sky! Periodically, the Tiger Tycoon map will rain down special rewards like stocks, vouchers, and more. Fastest finge","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":2,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/248312805347464","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":0,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2436,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":251274818994280,"gmtCreate":1702383715547,"gmtModify":1702383718424,"author":{"id":"3573688531814941","authorId":"3573688531814941","name":"ccssyy","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/788037228f49cc166fdc5223f0073775","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3573688531814941","authorIdStr":"3573688531814941"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/PLTR\">$Palantir Technologies Inc.(PLTR)$ </a>&nbsp;","listText":"<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/PLTR\">$Palantir Technologies Inc.(PLTR)$ </a>&nbsp;","text":"$Palantir Technologies Inc.(PLTR)$","images":[{"img":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/4eca804b1d7bfd8510044aad5ae3a8e9","width":"906","height":"1406"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/251274818994280","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2281,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9916384387,"gmtCreate":1664511428849,"gmtModify":1676537469196,"author":{"id":"3573688531814941","authorId":"3573688531814941","name":"ccssyy","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/788037228f49cc166fdc5223f0073775","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3573688531814941","authorIdStr":"3573688531814941"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/SQQQ\">$纳指三倍做空ETF(SQQQ)$</a><v-v data-views=\"1\"></v-v>","listText":"<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/SQQQ\">$纳指三倍做空ETF(SQQQ)$</a><v-v data-views=\"1\"></v-v>","text":"$纳指三倍做空ETF(SQQQ)$","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9916384387","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2017,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9009091229,"gmtCreate":1640343023262,"gmtModify":1676533517464,"author":{"id":"3573688531814941","authorId":"3573688531814941","name":"ccssyy","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/788037228f49cc166fdc5223f0073775","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3573688531814941","authorIdStr":"3573688531814941"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"ok","listText":"ok","text":"ok","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9009091229","repostId":"1169357395","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2821,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":132752575,"gmtCreate":1622118266397,"gmtModify":1704179765934,"author":{"id":"3573688531814941","authorId":"3573688531814941","name":"ccssyy","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/788037228f49cc166fdc5223f0073775","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3573688531814941","authorIdStr":"3573688531814941"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"111","listText":"111","text":"111","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/132752575","repostId":"2138147059","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"2138147059","kind":"highlight","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"中国大陆领先的金融数据、信息和软件服务企业，总部位于上海陆家嘴金融中心。","home_visible":1,"media_name":"Wind万得","id":"99","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c71e30d1317b4a5cb20a41998e10ac68"},"pubTimestamp":1622097961,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/2138147059?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2021-05-27 14:46","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"The signal suggests that markets are downplaying concerns about Fed tightening this summer","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2138147059","media":"Wind万得","summary":"就在几周前，市场上还充斥着这样的猜测：在通胀飞涨的情况下，美联储几乎肯定会在6月16日的联邦公开市场委员会(FOMC)会议上开启缩减量化宽松的话题。许多业内人士猜测，如果美联储不在6会议上讨论紧缩政策","content":"<p>Just a few weeks ago, markets were rife with speculation that, amid skyrocketing inflation, the Federal Reserve would almost certainly open the topic of tapering quantitative easing at its FOMC meeting on June 16.</p><p>Many people in the industry speculate that if the Federal Reserve does not discuss tightening policy at the 6 meeting, then the annual meeting of the central bank in Jackson Hole at the end of August may show important signals, because many of the \"radical\" ideas of the Federal Reserve in the past 10 years have been elicited in the meeting.</p><p>However, this indicator indicates that market concerns have eased recently. Volatility on the 3-month 10-year implied swap option, a measure of how U.S. bond yields will move over the next three months, has been steadily declining and hit its lowest level since early March.</p><p>Notably, the next three months may cover this year's Jackson Hole Annual Conference, which previously took place in the last week of August. Judging from past experience, many central banks explained major shifts in national policies at this meeting. So earlier this month, markets were betting heavily on a hawkish correction by the Fed in Jackson Hole, with options positions targeting the more aggressive interest rate outlook of the Fed and the European Central Bank.</p><p>If the markets are right and no tapering is announced at the Jackson Hole meeting, people will be more concerned about the Fed's next window of opportunity.</p><p>To be sure, even without the Jackson Hole annual meeting without surprises, there are a host of factors that could inject new volatility into the market. According to the minutes of the meeting of the Federal Open Market Committee (fomc), many participants said that if the economic situation develops as expected, they are willing to discuss reducing the scale of bond purchases at the \"upcoming meeting\". Federal Reserve Vice Chairman Richard Clarida expressed the same view on Tuesday.</p><p>Bank of France President Francois Villeroy de Galhau also said on Wednesday that there would be no short-term stimulus adjustments, while ECB executive member Fabio Panetta said he saw no signs of persistent inflation and therefore did not allow a reduction in bond purchases.</p><p><b>Fed discusses possible'timeline 'for tightening</b></p><p>Fed officials have guaranteed plenty of warnings ahead of actual tapering, and policymakers have signaled in the minutes of their April meeting that the possibility of reduced purchases has arrived, with more information to come in the coming months.</p><p>The highlight of the Jackson Hole meeting will be a keynote address by Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell. Powell used the meeting last year to suggest a groundbreaking new policy path for the Fed's approach to inflation.</p><p>This year, Powell will focus on potentially accelerating price pressures that exceed the Fed's 2% target range and have already created some market pressure to tighten policy at least slightly to avoid future problems.</p><p>So far, the Federal Reserve has insisted on the expectation that the recent high inflation will last for several months and then disappear. Alejandra Grindal, chief international economist at Ned Davis Research, said, \"I do think the Fed will do the right thing because they are in line with our view that the upside risks to inflation are temporary.\"</p><p>Grindal expects the Fed to announce a tapering of its bond-buying program between the November Federal Open Market Committee (fomc) meeting, a timetable slightly later than other central bank observers expected, but largely in line with this year's trend. \"Then, we expect to start tapering in 2022. It will take about a year for the Fed to complete the process of tapering bond purchases. After that, we expect to see interest rates rise as early as 2023, but possibly as late as 2024.\"</p><p>Economists and most Wall Street strategists share the Fed's narrative that the inflationary pressures that drove the consumer price index (CPI) up 4.2% in April could subside once supply chain issues and the base effect since 2020 recede.</p><p>However, the market is still worried about whether the Fed can achieve a soft landing through stimulus measures, with the benchmark borrowing rate falling to near zero again, and the Fed's balance sheet expanding to nearly $8 trillion.</p><p>The last time the Fed tried to reduce its asset holdings and raise interest rates, it didn't work well. Powell said in a statement that the balance sheet reduction is in a state of \"autonomous driving.\" In 2017 and 2018, the Fed's rate hike of 25 basis points overlapped with the slowdown in economic growth, causing huge fluctuations in the market.</p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>The signal suggests that markets are downplaying concerns about Fed tightening this summer</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nThe signal suggests that markets are downplaying concerns about Fed tightening this summer\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/99\">\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/c71e30d1317b4a5cb20a41998e10ac68);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">Wind万得 </p>\n<p class=\"h-time smaller\">2021-05-27 14:46</p>\n</div>\n</a>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>Just a few weeks ago, markets were rife with speculation that, amid skyrocketing inflation, the Federal Reserve would almost certainly open the topic of tapering quantitative easing at its FOMC meeting on June 16.</p><p>Many people in the industry speculate that if the Federal Reserve does not discuss tightening policy at the 6 meeting, then the annual meeting of the central bank in Jackson Hole at the end of August may show important signals, because many of the \"radical\" ideas of the Federal Reserve in the past 10 years have been elicited in the meeting.</p><p>However, this indicator indicates that market concerns have eased recently. Volatility on the 3-month 10-year implied swap option, a measure of how U.S. bond yields will move over the next three months, has been steadily declining and hit its lowest level since early March.</p><p>Notably, the next three months may cover this year's Jackson Hole Annual Conference, which previously took place in the last week of August. Judging from past experience, many central banks explained major shifts in national policies at this meeting. So earlier this month, markets were betting heavily on a hawkish correction by the Fed in Jackson Hole, with options positions targeting the more aggressive interest rate outlook of the Fed and the European Central Bank.</p><p>If the markets are right and no tapering is announced at the Jackson Hole meeting, people will be more concerned about the Fed's next window of opportunity.</p><p>To be sure, even without the Jackson Hole annual meeting without surprises, there are a host of factors that could inject new volatility into the market. According to the minutes of the meeting of the Federal Open Market Committee (fomc), many participants said that if the economic situation develops as expected, they are willing to discuss reducing the scale of bond purchases at the \"upcoming meeting\". Federal Reserve Vice Chairman Richard Clarida expressed the same view on Tuesday.</p><p>Bank of France President Francois Villeroy de Galhau also said on Wednesday that there would be no short-term stimulus adjustments, while ECB executive member Fabio Panetta said he saw no signs of persistent inflation and therefore did not allow a reduction in bond purchases.</p><p><b>Fed discusses possible'timeline 'for tightening</b></p><p>Fed officials have guaranteed plenty of warnings ahead of actual tapering, and policymakers have signaled in the minutes of their April meeting that the possibility of reduced purchases has arrived, with more information to come in the coming months.</p><p>The highlight of the Jackson Hole meeting will be a keynote address by Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell. Powell used the meeting last year to suggest a groundbreaking new policy path for the Fed's approach to inflation.</p><p>This year, Powell will focus on potentially accelerating price pressures that exceed the Fed's 2% target range and have already created some market pressure to tighten policy at least slightly to avoid future problems.</p><p>So far, the Federal Reserve has insisted on the expectation that the recent high inflation will last for several months and then disappear. Alejandra Grindal, chief international economist at Ned Davis Research, said, \"I do think the Fed will do the right thing because they are in line with our view that the upside risks to inflation are temporary.\"</p><p>Grindal expects the Fed to announce a tapering of its bond-buying program between the November Federal Open Market Committee (fomc) meeting, a timetable slightly later than other central bank observers expected, but largely in line with this year's trend. \"Then, we expect to start tapering in 2022. It will take about a year for the Fed to complete the process of tapering bond purchases. After that, we expect to see interest rates rise as early as 2023, but possibly as late as 2024.\"</p><p>Economists and most Wall Street strategists share the Fed's narrative that the inflationary pressures that drove the consumer price index (CPI) up 4.2% in April could subside once supply chain issues and the base effect since 2020 recede.</p><p>However, the market is still worried about whether the Fed can achieve a soft landing through stimulus measures, with the benchmark borrowing rate falling to near zero again, and the Fed's balance sheet expanding to nearly $8 trillion.</p><p>The last time the Fed tried to reduce its asset holdings and raise interest rates, it didn't work well. Powell said in a statement that the balance sheet reduction is in a state of \"autonomous driving.\" In 2017 and 2018, the Fed's rate hike of 25 basis points overlapped with the slowdown in economic growth, causing huge fluctuations in the market.</p>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://img.zhitongcaijing.com/image/20210527/20210527092115_49454.png?x-oss-process=image/format,jpg/quality,Q_80","relate_stocks":{"161125":"标普500","513500":"标普500ETF","SH":"做空标普500-Proshares","SSO":"2倍做多标普500ETF-ProShares","OEX":"标普100","QLD":"2倍做多纳斯达克100指数ETF-ProShares","IVV":"标普500ETF-iShares",".DJI":"道琼斯","DXD":"两倍做空道琼30指数ETF-ProShares","SPY":"标普500ETF",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index","DDM":"2倍做多道指ETF-ProShares","OEF":"标普100指数ETF-iShares","SDOW":"三倍做空道指30ETF-ProShares","TQQQ":"纳指三倍做多ETF","DOG":"道指ETF-ProShares做空","QID":"两倍做空纳斯达克指数ETF-ProShares","SDS":"两倍做空标普500 ETF-ProShares",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite","DJX":"1/100道琼斯","SQQQ":"纳指三倍做空ETF","PSQ":"做空纳斯达克100指数ETF-ProShares","QQQ":"纳指100ETF","UDOW":"三倍做多道指30ETF-ProShares","UPRO":"三倍做多标普500ETF-ProShares","SPXU":"三倍做空标普500ETF-ProShares"},"is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2138147059","content_text":"就在几周前，市场上还充斥着这样的猜测：在通胀飞涨的情况下，美联储几乎肯定会在6月16日的联邦公开市场委员会(FOMC)会议上开启缩减量化宽松的话题。许多业内人士猜测，如果美联储不在6会议上讨论紧缩政策，那么8月底召开的杰克逊霍尔(Jackson Hole)央行年会可能会出现重要信号，因为美联储过去10年的许多“激进”想法都在该会议中引出。但这一指标却表示，市场担忧近期有所缓解。3个月10年期隐含互换期权波动率(一个用来衡量美债收益率在未来3个月如何变动的指标)一直在稳步下降，并触及3月初以来的最低水平。值得注意的是，未来三个月可能涵盖了今年的杰克逊霍尔年会，该会议往年于8月的最后一个星期召开。从过往经验来看，许多央行都在该会议上阐述国政策的重大转向。因此在本月稍早时期，市场曾大举押注美联储在杰克逊霍尔将出现强硬调整，期权头寸瞄准了美联储和欧洲央行更为激进的利率前景。如果市场是正确的，而且在杰克逊霍尔会议上没有宣布缩减购债规模，人们将更为关心美联储的下一个机会窗口。可以肯定的是，即使没有杰克逊霍尔年会上没有出现意外，也有一系列因素可能给市场注入新的波动性。美国联邦公开市场委员会(fomc)会议纪要显示，多位与会者表示，如果经济形势如预期发展，他们愿意在\"即将召开的会议\"上讨论缩减购债规模。美联储副主席克拉里达(Richard Clarida)周二也表达了同样的观点。法国央行(Bank of France)行长德加劳(Francois Villeroy de Galhau)周三也表示，短期内不会对刺激措施进行调整，而欧洲央行执委会成员帕内塔(Fabio Panetta)则表示，他没有看到持续通胀的迹象，因此不允许减少债券购买。美联储讨论紧缩的可能“时间表”美联储官员已经保证在实际缩减之前会发出大量警告，政策制定者在4月会议纪要上已发出信号，表明购买量减少的可能性已经到来，未来几个月还将有更多信息出台。杰克逊霍尔会议的亮点将是美联储主席杰罗姆·鲍威尔(Jerome Powell)的主题演讲。鲍威尔去年利用这次会议为美联储处理通胀问题的方式提出了一条开创性的新政策路径。今年，鲍威尔将关注可能加速的价格压力，这些压力超过了美联储2%的目标区间，并已造成一些市场压力，迫使其至少稍微收紧政策，以避免未来出现问题。美联储迄今为止都在坚持这样一种预期：即近期较高的通货膨胀将会持续数月，随后消失。Ned Davis Research首席国际经济学家Alejandra Grindal表示，\"我确实认为美联储会采取正确的措施，因为他们符合我们的看法，即通胀上行风险是暂时的。\"Grindal预计，美联储将在11月联邦公开市场委员会(fomc)会议之间宣布缩减购债计划，这一时间表比其他央行观察人士的预期稍晚一些，但基本上与今年的走势一致。“然后，我们预计将在2022年开始缩减。美联储将需要大约一年的时间来完成缩减购债的过程。在那之后，我们预计最早在2023年看到利率上升，但可能最晚到2024年。”经济学家和大多数华尔街策略师都认同美联储的说法，即一旦供应链问题和2020年以来的基数效应消退，推动4月份消费者价格指数(CPI)上涨4.2%的通胀压力可能会消退。不过，市场仍担心美联储能否通过刺激措施实现软着陆，指标借款利率再度降至接近零水准，且美联储资产负债表扩张至近8万亿美元。上次美联储试图减少资产持有并提高利率时，效果并不理想。鲍威尔在声明中称，资产负债表缩减处于“自动驾驶”状态。而在2017年和2018年，美联储加息25个基点与经济增速放缓相重叠，引起了市场的巨大波动。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"161125":0.9,"513500":0.9,"PSQ":0.9,"DDM":0.9,"UPRO":0.9,"QID":0.9,".SPX":0.9,"ESmain":0.9,"DXD":0.9,"SH":0.9,"DJX":0.9,"OEX":0.9,"SDS":0.9,"OEF":0.9,".DJI":0.9,"UDOW":0.9,"TQQQ":0.9,"MNQmain":0.9,"SDOW":0.9,"QQQ":0.9,"SPXU":0.9,"DOG":0.9,"NQmain":0.9,"SSO":0.9,"QLD":0.9,"IVV":0.9,"SQQQ":0.9,".IXIC":0.9,"SPY":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2570,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0}],"lives":[]}