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2021-06-18

？

Hawkish Signal! The Federal Reserve gradually changes its face. How will the property market and the stock market be corrected?

2021-06-28

111

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2021-05-29

I

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2021-05-03

666

Is the GDP of the United States strong or weak in the first quarter?

2021-05-01

?

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2021-05-27

Hi

Three factors suggest that the "mercury retrograde period" of tech stocks is still not over

2024-01-14

🐂🐂🐂🐂🐂🐂🐂🐂🐂🐂🐂🐂🐂🐂🐂🐂🐂🐂🐂🐂🐂🐂🐂🐂🐂🐂🐂🐂🐂🐂🐂🐂🐂🐂🐂🐂🐂🐂🐂🐂🐂🐂🐂🐂🐂🐂🐂🐂🐂🐂🐂

2024-01-03

666

@TigerEvents:🐅🌟 TIGER TYCOON CHALLENGE IS ON! 🌟🐅

2023-12-12

$Palantir Technologies Inc.(PLTR)$

2022-09-30

$纳指三倍做空ETF(SQQQ)$

Go to Tiger App to see more news

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Fastest finge","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":2,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/248312805347464","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":0,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":3390,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":251274818994280,"gmtCreate":1702383715547,"gmtModify":1702383718424,"author":{"id":"3573688531814941","authorId":"3573688531814941","name":"ccssyy","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/788037228f49cc166fdc5223f0073775","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3573688531814941","authorIdStr":"3573688531814941"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/PLTR\">$Palantir Technologies Inc.(PLTR)$ </a>&nbsp;","listText":"<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/PLTR\">$Palantir Technologies Inc.(PLTR)$ </a>&nbsp;","text":"$Palantir Technologies Inc.(PLTR)$","images":[{"img":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/4eca804b1d7bfd8510044aad5ae3a8e9","width":"906","height":"1406"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/251274818994280","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":3189,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9916384387,"gmtCreate":1664511428849,"gmtModify":1676537469196,"author":{"id":"3573688531814941","authorId":"3573688531814941","name":"ccssyy","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/788037228f49cc166fdc5223f0073775","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3573688531814941","authorIdStr":"3573688531814941"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/SQQQ\">$纳指三倍做空ETF(SQQQ)$</a><v-v data-views=\"1\"></v-v>","listText":"<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/SQQQ\">$纳指三倍做空ETF(SQQQ)$</a><v-v data-views=\"1\"></v-v>","text":"$纳指三倍做空ETF(SQQQ)$","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9916384387","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2817,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9009091229,"gmtCreate":1640343023262,"gmtModify":1676533517464,"author":{"id":"3573688531814941","authorId":"3573688531814941","name":"ccssyy","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/788037228f49cc166fdc5223f0073775","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3573688531814941","authorIdStr":"3573688531814941"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"ok","listText":"ok","text":"ok","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9009091229","repostId":"1169357395","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":3854,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":127962201,"gmtCreate":1624819136703,"gmtModify":1703845506737,"author":{"id":"3573688531814941","authorId":"3573688531814941","name":"ccssyy","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/788037228f49cc166fdc5223f0073775","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3573688531814941","authorIdStr":"3573688531814941"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"111","listText":"111","text":"111","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":2,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/127962201","repostId":"1192656485","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":4939,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":168125845,"gmtCreate":1623967496187,"gmtModify":1703824727038,"author":{"id":"3573688531814941","authorId":"3573688531814941","name":"ccssyy","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/788037228f49cc166fdc5223f0073775","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3573688531814941","authorIdStr":"3573688531814941"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"？","listText":"？","text":"？","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":4,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/168125845","repostId":"1111690771","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1111690771","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1623935139,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1111690771?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2021-06-17 21:05","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"Hawkish Signal! The Federal Reserve gradually changes its face. How will the property market and the stock market be corrected?","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1111690771","media":"杠杆游戏","summary":"全球瞩目，美国是否加息，何时加息？\n当地时间6月16日，美联储发布经济预测和政策声明。美联储分别上调了对2021年的美国经济及通胀预期，而一同公布的点阵图则显示，有超过半数的FOMC委员给出了提前加息","content":"<p>Global attention, is the United States rate hike, when rate hike?</p><p>On June 16th, local time, the Federal Reserve issued an economic forecast and policy statement. The Federal Reserve raised its expectations for the U.S. economy and inflation in 2021 respectively, and the dot plot published together showed that more than half of FOMC members gave expectations of early rate hike, and the median forecast suggested that the Federal Reserve would hold two rate hike before 2023.</p><p>Interest rates may rise from 0.1% to 0.6%.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d41cae1274b855b1881c45df621f92f1\" tg-width=\"650\" tg-height=\"248\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>Generally speaking, the Fed's concerns about prices have increased, and hawkish signals are beginning to appear. What impact will this have on China's stock market and property market? According to the details of this interest rate meeting, the leverage game will talk about it.</p><p><b>1. The hawkish turn signal deserves attention!</b></p><p>Thirteen of the 18 commissioners supported at least one rate hike by the end of 2023. The Federal Reserve is more confident in the U.S. economy. They believe that the U.S. GDP will grow by 7.0% in 2021, compared with the forecast of 6.5% at the March meeting.</p><p>The Fed also raised its real GDP forecast for 2023 to 2.4% from the 2.2% it previously expected. With the better economic recovery, the problems of price and monetary policy naturally come.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/66259bd1ce43d9289e0638c6cb914df7\" tg-width=\"650\" tg-height=\"257\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>Huatai Futures made a statistic, and the leverage game felt very meaningful, and thanked it.</p><p>The dot plot of the rate hike path of Fed officials shows that by the end of 2023, the Fed may rate hike twice.</p><p>The June dot plot of the FOMC (the Federal Reserve's open market committee) showed that 13 of the 18 commissioners supported at least one rate hike by the end of 2023, compared with seven in March.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/13dc861d49dae295f65371658fe551af\" tg-width=\"528\" tg-height=\"540\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>Chart Source |<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/000686\">Northeast Securities</a>(Thank you hereby)</p><p>Eleven commissioners expect at least two rate hike by the end of 2023, and seven commissioners expect to begin a rate hike in 2022. 4 in March.</p><p>And the median prediction of the dotplot in March implies that there will be no rate hike until the end of 2023.</p><p><b>2. Federal Reserve Chairman Powell generally believes that it is too early to discuss rate hike. Why is the key?</b></p><p>Of course, the Federal Reserve is prepared to adjust the excess reserve rate (IOER) from 0.1% to 0.15%. That is to say, in the face of excess liquidity, the Federal Reserve is actually making appropriate moves.</p><p>Making it clear, though, that it will continue to increase its holdings of at least $80 billion a month in Treasury Bond, as well as at least $40 billion in home mortgage-backed securities, until substantial progress is made on full employment and price stability targets.</p><p>Here, the leverage game needs one more word. What counts as the goal of full employment and price stability?</p><p>For example, the number of new non-farm payrolls in the United States in April and May was 278,000 and 559,000 respectively, both lower than expected. Employment still fell by about 7.6 million in May compared with pre-Black Swan levels.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8c8c7ecd06543dcd0ded387b77673869\" tg-width=\"832\" tg-height=\"343\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>Source of chart | Northeast Securities (thank you)</p><p>The Fed expects the unemployment rate to drop to 4.5% in 2021 (the same as its March forecast) and 3.8% and 3.5% in 2022 and 2023, respectively – by this point, back to very low levels, presumably qualified;</p><p>At the same time, Powell believes that inflation may remain high in the coming months before it eases-price indicators should be considered up to standard.</p><p>So, my conclusion is that Americans care about the economy, simply employment indicators.</p><p><b>3. The normalization of U.S. monetary policy may be accelerated, which deserves attention, but the stock market should be worry-free for the time being.</b></p><p>Judging from the above changes in the attitude of Fed members towards rate hike, the leverage game can basically be considered that the pace of rate hike has been greatly accelerated compared with before.</p><p>While there is no signal from rate hike yet, an early arrival is possible. At the same time, Powell is ready to discuss reducing bond purchases, and the hawks are undoubtedly revealed. Then the US dollar will be supported in the short term, and the RMB exchange rate will fluctuate mainly.</p><p>However, because the liquidity between China and the United States is generally loose. For example, our M2 was 227.54 trillion yuan at the end of May, a year-on-year increase of 8.3%, and the growth rate was 0.2 percentage points higher than that at the end of last month.</p><p>At the same time, the communication between the central banks of China and the United States and the market is relatively sufficient and transparent, and no one will suddenly turn monetary policy.</p><p>Therefore, the stock market will not panic overall, and the trend decline will not appear.</p><p><b>4. Domestic demand is still a little weak, and external demand supports high production prosperity. Real estate and investment should not be too cool at this time.</b></p><p>June 16th is a very interesting day. The United States informed some of their statements at the interest rate meeting, and we released a number of economic indicators.</p><p>We can see that industrial production has actually weakened slightly, and external demand is still an important support.</p><p>According to the statistics of Beijing Capital Securities, for example, in May, the two-year average growth rate of industrial added value above the regulated level was 6.6%, slightly lower than the previous value by 0.2 percentage points.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d083afd587e6aa1242d24c96c4ad505e\" tg-width=\"477\" tg-height=\"545\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>Chart source | Capital Securities (thank you)</p><p>The compound growth rate of export delivery value has dropped significantly, echoing the sharp decline of exports in May. However, without the high growth of exports, industrial data will decline even more.</p><p>Generally speaking, external demand has peaked and fallen, and it is certain that production and exports will have a slight impact in the next step.</p><p>In terms of fixed investment, it increased by 15.4% year-on-year. However, the newly started area of houses has experienced negative growth for two consecutive months, and the completed area has accelerated significantly this month, turning positive to 5.0% year-on-year. In the short term, real estate investment is still supported, and there is certain pressure in the long term.</p><p>At the same time, with the strengthening of debt management, there is a high probability that fixed investment will fall back.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/140e47518613dba5d257d583f1f9f4ec\" tg-width=\"554\" tg-height=\"298\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>Social retail sales rose 12.4% in May, slightly below market expectations of 12.8%, compared with the previous value of 17.7%.</p><p>Generally speaking, the leverage game believes that domestic demand is so-so and exports are peaking. Then, the real estate suppression is suppressed and can't be made too ugly.</p><p><b>5. Whether there is a liquidity inflection point in the United States in the third quarter is worth noting.</b></p><p>Regardless of global house prices, commodities, and the U.S. stock market, the nature of this round of asset price surge is dominated by liquidity.</p><p>Now the question is, is there an inflection point in U.S. liquidity in the third quarter? As written in the above leverage game, the Federal Reserve has a signal of shrinking, and the excess reserve rate has increased slightly.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c6a294dbe7d55d78d322cf321fc22590\" tg-width=\"556\" tg-height=\"431\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>Chart Source |<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/601878\">Zheshang Securities</a>(Thank you hereby)</p><p>In the third quarter, the leverage game believes that the first amplitude is small, and the second is a temptation. At the same time, the last round of cards by the central bank of China has proved that \"I am the main\"-as long as the United States does not have rate hike, the world trend of funds returning to the United States to pursue high yields should not come.</p><p>From this perspective alone, in 2021, China's stock market will not be bearish; The property market only shows an unusually harsh attitude towards speculation. As mentioned above, the stability of the economy still needs it.</p><p>It should be noted that in the third quarter, such as July and August, the Federal Reserve began to formally discuss cutting QE, and began to cut QE at the end of 2021 or early 2022, which were basically within market expectations.</p><p>Nevertheless, this is at least a constraint on any country's monetary policy.</p><p><b>6. Conclusion: In 2021, the stock market will basically not be affected by the United States, and the property market will be dominated by me.</b>The former leverage game means, don't worry about liquidity.</p><p>The latter I mean, the property market will crack down on speculation, and it will run through 2021. However, local governments are becoming more and more skilled in their ability to trade the property market, and they have always had their own ways to guarantee a certain price and sales volume.</p><p>What's more, the water hasn't decreased.</p>","source":"lsy1574902984297","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Hawkish Signal! The Federal Reserve gradually changes its face. 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The Federal Reserve gradually changes its face. How will the property market and the stock market be corrected?\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">杠杆游戏</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-06-17 21:05</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>Global attention, is the United States rate hike, when rate hike?</p><p>On June 16th, local time, the Federal Reserve issued an economic forecast and policy statement. The Federal Reserve raised its expectations for the U.S. economy and inflation in 2021 respectively, and the dot plot published together showed that more than half of FOMC members gave expectations of early rate hike, and the median forecast suggested that the Federal Reserve would hold two rate hike before 2023.</p><p>Interest rates may rise from 0.1% to 0.6%.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d41cae1274b855b1881c45df621f92f1\" tg-width=\"650\" tg-height=\"248\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>Generally speaking, the Fed's concerns about prices have increased, and hawkish signals are beginning to appear. What impact will this have on China's stock market and property market? According to the details of this interest rate meeting, the leverage game will talk about it.</p><p><b>1. The hawkish turn signal deserves attention!</b></p><p>Thirteen of the 18 commissioners supported at least one rate hike by the end of 2023. The Federal Reserve is more confident in the U.S. economy. They believe that the U.S. GDP will grow by 7.0% in 2021, compared with the forecast of 6.5% at the March meeting.</p><p>The Fed also raised its real GDP forecast for 2023 to 2.4% from the 2.2% it previously expected. With the better economic recovery, the problems of price and monetary policy naturally come.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/66259bd1ce43d9289e0638c6cb914df7\" tg-width=\"650\" tg-height=\"257\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>Huatai Futures made a statistic, and the leverage game felt very meaningful, and thanked it.</p><p>The dot plot of the rate hike path of Fed officials shows that by the end of 2023, the Fed may rate hike twice.</p><p>The June dot plot of the FOMC (the Federal Reserve's open market committee) showed that 13 of the 18 commissioners supported at least one rate hike by the end of 2023, compared with seven in March.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/13dc861d49dae295f65371658fe551af\" tg-width=\"528\" tg-height=\"540\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>Chart Source |<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/000686\">Northeast Securities</a>(Thank you hereby)</p><p>Eleven commissioners expect at least two rate hike by the end of 2023, and seven commissioners expect to begin a rate hike in 2022. 4 in March.</p><p>And the median prediction of the dotplot in March implies that there will be no rate hike until the end of 2023.</p><p><b>2. Federal Reserve Chairman Powell generally believes that it is too early to discuss rate hike. Why is the key?</b></p><p>Of course, the Federal Reserve is prepared to adjust the excess reserve rate (IOER) from 0.1% to 0.15%. That is to say, in the face of excess liquidity, the Federal Reserve is actually making appropriate moves.</p><p>Making it clear, though, that it will continue to increase its holdings of at least $80 billion a month in Treasury Bond, as well as at least $40 billion in home mortgage-backed securities, until substantial progress is made on full employment and price stability targets.</p><p>Here, the leverage game needs one more word. What counts as the goal of full employment and price stability?</p><p>For example, the number of new non-farm payrolls in the United States in April and May was 278,000 and 559,000 respectively, both lower than expected. Employment still fell by about 7.6 million in May compared with pre-Black Swan levels.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8c8c7ecd06543dcd0ded387b77673869\" tg-width=\"832\" tg-height=\"343\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>Source of chart | Northeast Securities (thank you)</p><p>The Fed expects the unemployment rate to drop to 4.5% in 2021 (the same as its March forecast) and 3.8% and 3.5% in 2022 and 2023, respectively – by this point, back to very low levels, presumably qualified;</p><p>At the same time, Powell believes that inflation may remain high in the coming months before it eases-price indicators should be considered up to standard.</p><p>So, my conclusion is that Americans care about the economy, simply employment indicators.</p><p><b>3. The normalization of U.S. monetary policy may be accelerated, which deserves attention, but the stock market should be worry-free for the time being.</b></p><p>Judging from the above changes in the attitude of Fed members towards rate hike, the leverage game can basically be considered that the pace of rate hike has been greatly accelerated compared with before.</p><p>While there is no signal from rate hike yet, an early arrival is possible. At the same time, Powell is ready to discuss reducing bond purchases, and the hawks are undoubtedly revealed. Then the US dollar will be supported in the short term, and the RMB exchange rate will fluctuate mainly.</p><p>However, because the liquidity between China and the United States is generally loose. For example, our M2 was 227.54 trillion yuan at the end of May, a year-on-year increase of 8.3%, and the growth rate was 0.2 percentage points higher than that at the end of last month.</p><p>At the same time, the communication between the central banks of China and the United States and the market is relatively sufficient and transparent, and no one will suddenly turn monetary policy.</p><p>Therefore, the stock market will not panic overall, and the trend decline will not appear.</p><p><b>4. Domestic demand is still a little weak, and external demand supports high production prosperity. Real estate and investment should not be too cool at this time.</b></p><p>June 16th is a very interesting day. The United States informed some of their statements at the interest rate meeting, and we released a number of economic indicators.</p><p>We can see that industrial production has actually weakened slightly, and external demand is still an important support.</p><p>According to the statistics of Beijing Capital Securities, for example, in May, the two-year average growth rate of industrial added value above the regulated level was 6.6%, slightly lower than the previous value by 0.2 percentage points.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d083afd587e6aa1242d24c96c4ad505e\" tg-width=\"477\" tg-height=\"545\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>Chart source | Capital Securities (thank you)</p><p>The compound growth rate of export delivery value has dropped significantly, echoing the sharp decline of exports in May. However, without the high growth of exports, industrial data will decline even more.</p><p>Generally speaking, external demand has peaked and fallen, and it is certain that production and exports will have a slight impact in the next step.</p><p>In terms of fixed investment, it increased by 15.4% year-on-year. However, the newly started area of houses has experienced negative growth for two consecutive months, and the completed area has accelerated significantly this month, turning positive to 5.0% year-on-year. In the short term, real estate investment is still supported, and there is certain pressure in the long term.</p><p>At the same time, with the strengthening of debt management, there is a high probability that fixed investment will fall back.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/140e47518613dba5d257d583f1f9f4ec\" tg-width=\"554\" tg-height=\"298\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>Social retail sales rose 12.4% in May, slightly below market expectations of 12.8%, compared with the previous value of 17.7%.</p><p>Generally speaking, the leverage game believes that domestic demand is so-so and exports are peaking. Then, the real estate suppression is suppressed and can't be made too ugly.</p><p><b>5. Whether there is a liquidity inflection point in the United States in the third quarter is worth noting.</b></p><p>Regardless of global house prices, commodities, and the U.S. stock market, the nature of this round of asset price surge is dominated by liquidity.</p><p>Now the question is, is there an inflection point in U.S. liquidity in the third quarter? As written in the above leverage game, the Federal Reserve has a signal of shrinking, and the excess reserve rate has increased slightly.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c6a294dbe7d55d78d322cf321fc22590\" tg-width=\"556\" tg-height=\"431\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>Chart Source |<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/601878\">Zheshang Securities</a>(Thank you hereby)</p><p>In the third quarter, the leverage game believes that the first amplitude is small, and the second is a temptation. At the same time, the last round of cards by the central bank of China has proved that \"I am the main\"-as long as the United States does not have rate hike, the world trend of funds returning to the United States to pursue high yields should not come.</p><p>From this perspective alone, in 2021, China's stock market will not be bearish; The property market only shows an unusually harsh attitude towards speculation. As mentioned above, the stability of the economy still needs it.</p><p>It should be noted that in the third quarter, such as July and August, the Federal Reserve began to formally discuss cutting QE, and began to cut QE at the end of 2021 or early 2022, which were basically within market expectations.</p><p>Nevertheless, this is at least a constraint on any country's monetary policy.</p><p><b>6. Conclusion: In 2021, the stock market will basically not be affected by the United States, and the property market will be dominated by me.</b>The former leverage game means, don't worry about liquidity.</p><p>The latter I mean, the property market will crack down on speculation, and it will run through 2021. However, local governments are becoming more and more skilled in their ability to trade the property market, and they have always had their own ways to guarantee a certain price and sales volume.</p><p>What's more, the water hasn't decreased.</p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> source：<a href=\"https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s/yTYYzzbQ08ymsKDOuBB5dw\">杠杆游戏</a></p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f09c44f289c2f0d40610768fe6661fab","relate_stocks":{"513500":"标普500ETF博时","QID":"两倍做空纳斯达克指数ETF-ProShares","OEX":"标普100","UDOW":"三倍做多道指30ETF-ProShares","DOG":"道指ETF-ProShares做空",".DJI":"道琼斯","SDS":"两倍做空标普500 ETF-ProShares","IVV":"标普500ETF-iShares","TQQQ":"纳指三倍做多ETF","SDOW":"三倍做空道指30ETF-ProShares",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite","QQQ":"纳指100ETF","SPY":"标普500ETF","OEF":"标普100指数ETF-iShares","QLD":"2倍做多纳斯达克100指数ETF-ProShares","PSQ":"做空纳斯达克100指数ETF-ProShares","DJX":"1/100道琼斯"},"source_url":"https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s/yTYYzzbQ08ymsKDOuBB5dw","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1111690771","content_text":"全球瞩目，美国是否加息，何时加息？\n当地时间6月16日，美联储发布经济预测和政策声明。美联储分别上调了对2021年的美国经济及通胀预期，而一同公布的点阵图则显示，有超过半数的FOMC委员给出了提前加息的预期，中位数预测暗示，美联储将在2023年前加息2次。\n利率或从0.1%升至0.6%。\n\n总体来说，美联储对物价的担忧提高，鹰派信号初现。这对我国股市、楼市会有什么影响，杠杆游戏根据此次议息会议的细节，展开谈一谈。\n1、鹰派转向信号值得重视！\n18位委员中有13人支持在2023年底前，至少加息1次。美联储对美国经济比较有信心，他们认为2021年美国GDP将增长7.0%，而3月份会议的预测为6.5%。\n美联储还将2023年的实际GDP预测，从之前预期的2.2%上调至2.4%。伴随经济的较好复苏，物价和货币政策问题自然来了。\n\n华泰期货做了一个统计，杠杆游戏觉得非常有意义，并致谢。\n美联储官员的加息路径点阵图显示，到2023年底，美联储或许将加息2次。\nFOMC（美联储的公开市场委员会）6月点阵图显示，18 位委员中有13人支持在2023 年底前至少加息1次，而3月为7位。\n\n图表来源|东北证券（特此感谢）\n11位委员预计到2023年底至少加息2次，7名委员预计在2022年开始加息。3月为4位。\n而3月份的点阵图中位数预测值暗示，到2023年底前不会加息。\n2、美联储主席鲍威尔总体认为，现在讨论加息还为时过早，关键是为什么？\n当然，美联储准备将超额准备金利率（IOER）从0.1%，调整至0.15%，也就是说，面对流动性过剩，美联储其实也在适当出手。\n不过说得很清楚，将继续每月增持至少800亿美元的国债，以及至少400亿美元的住房抵押贷款支持证券，直到充分就业和物价稳定目标取得实质性进展。\n这里杠杆游戏要多一句嘴，什么算充分就业和物价稳定目标？\n比如美国4月、5月新增非农就业人口分别为27.8万和55.9万，均低于预期。与黑天鹅前水平相比，5月就业人数依然减少了约760万。\n\n图表来源|东北证券（特此感谢）\n美联储预计2021年失业率将降至4.5%（与3月的预测持平），2022年和2023年失业率将分别降至3.8%和3.5%——到此，回到非常低的水平，大概算是合格；\n同时鲍威尔认为通货膨胀可能在未来几个月继续居高不下，然后才会有所缓和——物价指标应该算达标。\n所以，我的结论就是，美国人在乎的是经济，简单说就是就业指标。\n3、美国货币政策正常化可能加快，值得重视，但股市应该暂时无忧。\n从上文美联储委员对加息的态度人数变化看，杠杆游戏基本可以认为，加息节奏较此前大大加快。\n虽然目前还没有加息的信号，但提前到来是可能的。同时，鲍威尔已经准备讨论缩减购债，鹰派显露无疑，那么美元短期内有支撑，人民币汇率震荡为主。\n但因为中美流动性总体宽松。如我们的M2，5月末227.54万亿元，同比增长8.3%，增速比上月末高0.2个百分点。\n同时无论中美央行，与市场的沟通都较为充分、透明，谁都不会货币政策突然转向。\n所以股市总体不会恐慌，趋势性下跌不会出现。\n4、内需还是有点弱，外需支撑生产高景气，房地产和投资这个时候不能太凉。\n6月16日是很有意思的一天，美国通报他们的议息会议部分声明，我们发布了多项经济指标。\n我们可以看，工业生产其实略走弱，外需仍是重要支撑。\n首创证券统计发现，比如5月规上工业增加值两年平均增速为6.6%，较前值略降0.2个百分点。\n\n图表来源|首创证券（特此感谢）\n出口交货值复合增速有较大回落，与5月出口大幅回落相呼应，但如果没有出口的高增长，工业数据会下滑更多。\n总体来说，外需见顶回落，生产和出口下一步略有影响是一定的。\n而固投方面，同比增长15.4%。但房屋新开工面积连续两个月负增长，竣工面积本月大幅提速，同比转正为5.0%，短期内房地产投资仍有支撑，长期存在一定的压力。\n同时债务管理的加强，固定投资的回落大概率。\n\n5月社零销售增长12.4%，小幅低于市场预期的12.8%，前值为17.7%。\n总的来说，杠杆游戏认为，内需马马虎虎，出口见顶，那么，房地产打压归打压，不能搞得太难看。\n5、三季度美国是否有流动性拐点，值得注意。\n无论全球房价，还是大宗商品，以及美国股市，资产价格大涨本质这一轮都是流动性主导的。\n现在问题来了，三季度美国流动性是否有拐点？上文杠杆游戏写了，美联储有缩量的信号，超额准备金利率略有提高。\n\n图表来源|浙商证券（特此感谢）\n3季度杠杆游戏认为，第一幅度小，第二是个试探，同时我国央行上一轮的出牌已经证明，“以我为主”——只要美国不加息，资金回美追求高收益的世界趋势，应该不会到来。\n单这个角度说，2021年，我国股市不至于看空；楼市，只是对投机表现出异常严厉的态度，如上所述，经济的稳定还需要它。\n需要注意的是，3季度，比如7、8月，美联储始正式讨论削减QE，2021年底或2022年初开始削减QE，这些基本已在市场预期内。\n尽管如此，这对任何国家的货币政策，起码都是掣肘。\n6、结论：2021年股市基本不会受美国影响，楼市以我为主。前者杠杆游戏的意思是，不要担心流动性。\n后者我的意思是，楼市打击投机，将贯穿2021年始终。但地方对楼市的操盘能力，也是越来越纯熟，保障一定的价格和销量，从来都有自己办法。\n何况，水又没减少。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"513500":0.9,"MNQmain":0.9,"UDOW":0.9,"OEF":0.9,"QLD":0.9,"DJX":0.9,"SDOW":0.9,".IXIC":0.9,"SDS":0.9,"QQQ":0.9,"SPY":0.9,"TQQQ":0.9,"PSQ":0.9,"QID":0.9,"ESmain":0.9,"OEX":0.9,"DOG":0.9,".DJI":0.9,"NQmain":0.9,"IVV":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":4584,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":137350785,"gmtCreate":1622303831147,"gmtModify":1704182866508,"author":{"id":"3573688531814941","authorId":"3573688531814941","name":"ccssyy","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/788037228f49cc166fdc5223f0073775","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3573688531814941","authorIdStr":"3573688531814941"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"I&nbsp;","listText":"I&nbsp;","text":"I","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/137350785","repostId":"1144873023","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1144873023","kind":"news","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"为用户提供金融资讯、行情、数据，旨在帮助投资者理解世界，做投资决策。","home_visible":1,"media_name":"老虎资讯综合","id":"102","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba"},"pubTimestamp":1622244373,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1144873023?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2021-05-29 07:26","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"Last night and this morning: Retail investors' short-squeeze market is temporarily paused! Biden unveils $6 trillion budget","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1144873023","media":"老虎资讯综合","summary":"摘要：美股三大股指集体收涨，芯片股多数上涨；热门中概股周五收盘涨跌不一，欢聚集团跌近10%；美国通胀指标又爆表了！4月核心PCE同比增长3.1%；二手电子产品交易平台爱回收提交赴美IPO申请>>>海外","content":"<p><b>Abstract:</b>The three major U.S. stock indexes closed higher collectively, and most chip stocks rose; Popular Chinese stocks closed mixed on Friday,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/YY\">Huanju Group</a>Down nearly 10%; The US inflation indicator has exploded again! Core PCE increased by 3.1% year-on-year in April; Second-hand electronic products trading platform Aihuishou submits IPO application in the United States>>><b>Overseas markets</b></p><p><b>US Stocks Closed: Three Major Stock Indexes Collectively Closed Up S&P 500 Index Achieved Three Lianyang</b></p><p>On Friday, EST, all three major indexes closed slightly higher, the S&P 500 achieved three consecutive positives, large technology stocks generally performed poorly, and most chip stocks rose. By the close, the Dow Jones index rose 0.19% to 34,520.09 points; The S&P 500 rose 0.08% to 4,203.57 points; The Nasdaq rose 0.09% to 13,747.61.</p><p>All three major U.S. stock indexes recorded gains this week. This week the Dow is up 0.9%, the S&P 500 is up 1.2% and the Nasdaq is up 2.1%; In May, the S&P 500 rose 0.6%, its fourth consecutive monthly gain. The Dow is up 1.9% and the Nasdaq is down 1.5% this month.</p><p><b>Popular Chinese concept stocks closed mixed on Friday<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/YY\">Huanju Group</a>Down nearly 10%</b></p><p>Popular Chinese stocks closed mixed on Friday,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MOGU\">Mushroom Street</a>It rose by more than 9%. The financial report showed that the company's revenue in the fourth fiscal quarter was 90.9 million yuan, down 23.6% year-on-year; Huanju Group fell nearly 10%, and the financial report showed that the company's average monthly active users (MAU) of global mobile devices decreased by 15.1% year-on-year in the first quarter;<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/JD\">Jingdong</a>up 1.52%,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BABA\">Alibaba</a>up 0.57%,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BILI\">Bilibili</a>up 3.06%,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TME\">Tencent Music</a>up 2.14%,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NTES\">Netease</a>up 1.35%,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/PDD\">Pinduoduo</a>up 4.36%,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BIDU\">Baidu</a>up 0.75%,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/IQ\">iQIYI</a>Down 1.86%</p><p><b>U.S. WTI crude rose 4.3% this week, Brent crude rose 4.8%</b></p><p>Crude oil futures prices closed mixed on Friday. This week and this month, US WTI and London Brent crude oil both recorded gains. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude oil futures for July delivery fell 53 cents, or 0.8%, to close at $66.32 per barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange; London<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/ICE\">Intercontinental Exchange</a>Brent crude futures for July delivery rose 17 cents, or 0.2%, to close at $69.63 a barrel. In terms of most active contracts, WTI crude is up 4.3% this week and 4.3% in May. Brent crude is up 4.8% this week and 3.5% in May.</p><p><b>Gold futures stood at the 1900 mark on Friday, up 7.8% this month</b></p><p>Gold futures prices returned to above $1,900 on Friday. Gold futures recorded gains both this week and this month. Gold futures for August delivery on the New York Mercantile Exchange rose $6.80, or 0.4%, to close at $1,905.30 an ounce, the highest closing price since Jan. 7. On a most active contract basis, gold futures are up 1.5% this week and 7.8% this month.</p><p><b>International macro</b></p><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/NW/2139938485\" target=\"_blank\"><b>Biden unveils $6 trillion budget package: includes two signature domestic proposals</b></a></p><p>President Joe Biden submitted his budget request for fiscal year 2022 to Congress, the first official budget since his presidency, which is very different from the budget of his predecessor, Trump. Biden's budget includes two of his signature domestic proposals, the American Family Plan and the American Jobs Plan, both of which have yet to be seriously discussed by Congress.</p><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/NW/2139485125\" target=\"_blank\"><b>U.S. Treasury expects $3.6 trillion in tax increases over a decade from Biden's tax hike plan</b></a></p><p>The U.S. Treasury Department released a \"green paper\" on Friday saying that President Biden's tax hike plan will bring in $3.6 trillion in tax revenue over the next decade. That would constitute the main source of funding for Biden's $4 trillion plan to rebuild the nation's economy and social security network.</p><p><b>The US inflation indicator has exploded again! Core PCE rose 3.1% year-over-year in April, highest since 1992</b></p><p>According to the statistics of the U.S. Department of Commerce, the PCE price index in the United States rose by 3.6% year-on-year in April, exceeding expectations by 3.5%, which was significantly higher than the previous value of 2.3%, the fastest growth rate since 2008, and far higher than the official inflation target of 2% of the Federal Reserve.</p><p><b>U.S. goods trade deficit narrows for the first time this year as exports rise to record highs</b></p><p>The U.S. goods trade deficit narrowed for the first time this year as exports soared to record levels and imports pulled back from record highs. The trade deficit narrowed to $85.2 billion in April from $90.6 billion the previous month, Commerce Department data showed Friday. The median estimate of economists polled by Bloomberg is $92 billion.</p><p><b>Yellen calls on the G7 to continue to provide financial support to support the central bank's exploration of digital currency policy</b></p><p>Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen told G7 finance ministers and central bankers on Friday that it was important to provide further financial support \"to facilitate a strong and lasting post-pandemic recovery,\" the Treasury Department said in a statement.</p><p><b>Company News</b></p><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/NW/2139486356\" target=\"_blank\"><b>Retail short squeeze pauses AMC turns to close lower after surging 38% in early trading</b></a></p><p>AMC, which is on the cusp of short-squeezing by retail investors, rose sharply for four consecutive days, and its gain once expanded to 38% in early trading on Friday, but then fell back, finally closing down 1.58%. Other retail group stocks that have been hot recently also showed weakness on Friday,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BBRY\">Blackberry</a>And<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NOK\">Nokia</a>The closing gains were less than 2%,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/GME\">Game Station</a>It closed down 12.58%.</p><p><b><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TSLA\">Tesla</a>Voluntary recall of some Model 3 and Model Y models</b></p><p>According to Electrek:<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TSLA\">Tesla</a>Announced a voluntary recall of select Model 3 models built between December 2018 and March 2021, as well as select Model Y models built between January 2020 and January 2021, to inspect brake caliper bolts.</p><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/NW/1117147021\" target=\"_blank\"><b>Second-hand electronic products trading platform Love Recycling Submits IPO Application to the United States</b></a></p><p>Used electronic products trading platform Aihuishou submitted an IPO application in the United States, intending to be listed and traded on the NYSE under the symbol \"RERE\". The underwriters include<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/GS\">Goldman Sachs</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BAC\">Bank of America</a>China Renaissance Capital,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/601211\">Guotai Junan</a>CLSA and<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TIGR\">Tiger Brokers</a>。</p><p><b>Credit Suisse RenTech Fund Temporarily Prohibits Customers from Redeeming Some Funds</b></p><p>Credit Suisse is temporarily barring customers from redeeming all cash from a fund invested with Renaissance Technologies. Investors are rushing to redeem their investments as the strategy loses heavily.</p><p><b><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/HSBC\">HSBC</a>Shareholders vote to stop coal financing by 2040</b></p><p>Media quotes<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/HSBC\">HSBC</a>News from Friday's shareholder meeting reported that HSBC shareholders voted to phase out coal financing by 2040 and align the bank's lending with the Paris Agreement's climate goals.</p><p><b>Meituan CEO Wang Xing responds to regulatory investigation: antitrust has a positive impact on the industry</b></p><p>In the first quarter earnings conference call, Meituan CEO Wang Xing responded to recent issues such as supervision, rider well-being and merchant rates. Regarding the anti-monopoly investigation of Meituan, Wang Xing said that anti-monopoly supervision will have a positive impact on the whole Internet industry. At the same time, he said that Meituan has a special team to cooperate with the work of the regulatory authorities, and the anti-monopoly investigation will not have a great negative impact on Meituan's take-out business. At the same time, Wang Xing said, \"We strictly prohibit any form of two-choice, and have established transparent and effective reporting channels. We will continue to actively cooperate with the regulatory authorities and fully respect the independent choice of merchants.\"</p><p>----------------------------------------------------</p><p>Share good news with tiger friends. Tiger currently supports weekend orders! Pre-order is a value-added service provided by Tiger for users, which can support users to place orders in non-trading periods. At present, it supports three order types: stop-loss order, stop-loss limit order and limit order.</p><p>That is to say, users can place orders during the market closure period, such as weekends and other holidays, and the orders are saved by Tiger's trading system and automatically submitted to the exchange after the market opens.</p><p><a href=\"https://www.laohu8.com/post/131820269\" target=\"_blank\">Click for more information>>></a></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Last night and this morning: Retail investors' short-squeeze market is temporarily paused! Biden unveils $6 trillion budget</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nLast night and this morning: Retail investors' short-squeeze market is temporarily paused! Biden unveils $6 trillion budget\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/102\">\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">老虎资讯综合 </p>\n<p class=\"h-time smaller\">2021-05-29 07:26</p>\n</div>\n</a>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><b>Abstract:</b>The three major U.S. stock indexes closed higher collectively, and most chip stocks rose; Popular Chinese stocks closed mixed on Friday,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/YY\">Huanju Group</a>Down nearly 10%; The US inflation indicator has exploded again! Core PCE increased by 3.1% year-on-year in April; Second-hand electronic products trading platform Aihuishou submits IPO application in the United States>>><b>Overseas markets</b></p><p><b>US Stocks Closed: Three Major Stock Indexes Collectively Closed Up S&P 500 Index Achieved Three Lianyang</b></p><p>On Friday, EST, all three major indexes closed slightly higher, the S&P 500 achieved three consecutive positives, large technology stocks generally performed poorly, and most chip stocks rose. By the close, the Dow Jones index rose 0.19% to 34,520.09 points; The S&P 500 rose 0.08% to 4,203.57 points; The Nasdaq rose 0.09% to 13,747.61.</p><p>All three major U.S. stock indexes recorded gains this week. This week the Dow is up 0.9%, the S&P 500 is up 1.2% and the Nasdaq is up 2.1%; In May, the S&P 500 rose 0.6%, its fourth consecutive monthly gain. The Dow is up 1.9% and the Nasdaq is down 1.5% this month.</p><p><b>Popular Chinese concept stocks closed mixed on Friday<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/YY\">Huanju Group</a>Down nearly 10%</b></p><p>Popular Chinese stocks closed mixed on Friday,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MOGU\">Mushroom Street</a>It rose by more than 9%. The financial report showed that the company's revenue in the fourth fiscal quarter was 90.9 million yuan, down 23.6% year-on-year; Huanju Group fell nearly 10%, and the financial report showed that the company's average monthly active users (MAU) of global mobile devices decreased by 15.1% year-on-year in the first quarter;<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/JD\">Jingdong</a>up 1.52%,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BABA\">Alibaba</a>up 0.57%,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BILI\">Bilibili</a>up 3.06%,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TME\">Tencent Music</a>up 2.14%,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NTES\">Netease</a>up 1.35%,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/PDD\">Pinduoduo</a>up 4.36%,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BIDU\">Baidu</a>up 0.75%,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/IQ\">iQIYI</a>Down 1.86%</p><p><b>U.S. WTI crude rose 4.3% this week, Brent crude rose 4.8%</b></p><p>Crude oil futures prices closed mixed on Friday. This week and this month, US WTI and London Brent crude oil both recorded gains. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude oil futures for July delivery fell 53 cents, or 0.8%, to close at $66.32 per barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange; London<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/ICE\">Intercontinental Exchange</a>Brent crude futures for July delivery rose 17 cents, or 0.2%, to close at $69.63 a barrel. In terms of most active contracts, WTI crude is up 4.3% this week and 4.3% in May. Brent crude is up 4.8% this week and 3.5% in May.</p><p><b>Gold futures stood at the 1900 mark on Friday, up 7.8% this month</b></p><p>Gold futures prices returned to above $1,900 on Friday. Gold futures recorded gains both this week and this month. Gold futures for August delivery on the New York Mercantile Exchange rose $6.80, or 0.4%, to close at $1,905.30 an ounce, the highest closing price since Jan. 7. On a most active contract basis, gold futures are up 1.5% this week and 7.8% this month.</p><p><b>International macro</b></p><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/NW/2139938485\" target=\"_blank\"><b>Biden unveils $6 trillion budget package: includes two signature domestic proposals</b></a></p><p>President Joe Biden submitted his budget request for fiscal year 2022 to Congress, the first official budget since his presidency, which is very different from the budget of his predecessor, Trump. Biden's budget includes two of his signature domestic proposals, the American Family Plan and the American Jobs Plan, both of which have yet to be seriously discussed by Congress.</p><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/NW/2139485125\" target=\"_blank\"><b>U.S. Treasury expects $3.6 trillion in tax increases over a decade from Biden's tax hike plan</b></a></p><p>The U.S. Treasury Department released a \"green paper\" on Friday saying that President Biden's tax hike plan will bring in $3.6 trillion in tax revenue over the next decade. That would constitute the main source of funding for Biden's $4 trillion plan to rebuild the nation's economy and social security network.</p><p><b>The US inflation indicator has exploded again! Core PCE rose 3.1% year-over-year in April, highest since 1992</b></p><p>According to the statistics of the U.S. Department of Commerce, the PCE price index in the United States rose by 3.6% year-on-year in April, exceeding expectations by 3.5%, which was significantly higher than the previous value of 2.3%, the fastest growth rate since 2008, and far higher than the official inflation target of 2% of the Federal Reserve.</p><p><b>U.S. goods trade deficit narrows for the first time this year as exports rise to record highs</b></p><p>The U.S. goods trade deficit narrowed for the first time this year as exports soared to record levels and imports pulled back from record highs. The trade deficit narrowed to $85.2 billion in April from $90.6 billion the previous month, Commerce Department data showed Friday. The median estimate of economists polled by Bloomberg is $92 billion.</p><p><b>Yellen calls on the G7 to continue to provide financial support to support the central bank's exploration of digital currency policy</b></p><p>Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen told G7 finance ministers and central bankers on Friday that it was important to provide further financial support \"to facilitate a strong and lasting post-pandemic recovery,\" the Treasury Department said in a statement.</p><p><b>Company News</b></p><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/NW/2139486356\" target=\"_blank\"><b>Retail short squeeze pauses AMC turns to close lower after surging 38% in early trading</b></a></p><p>AMC, which is on the cusp of short-squeezing by retail investors, rose sharply for four consecutive days, and its gain once expanded to 38% in early trading on Friday, but then fell back, finally closing down 1.58%. Other retail group stocks that have been hot recently also showed weakness on Friday,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BBRY\">Blackberry</a>And<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NOK\">Nokia</a>The closing gains were less than 2%,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/GME\">Game Station</a>It closed down 12.58%.</p><p><b><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TSLA\">Tesla</a>Voluntary recall of some Model 3 and Model Y models</b></p><p>According to Electrek:<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TSLA\">Tesla</a>Announced a voluntary recall of select Model 3 models built between December 2018 and March 2021, as well as select Model Y models built between January 2020 and January 2021, to inspect brake caliper bolts.</p><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/NW/1117147021\" target=\"_blank\"><b>Second-hand electronic products trading platform Love Recycling Submits IPO Application to the United States</b></a></p><p>Used electronic products trading platform Aihuishou submitted an IPO application in the United States, intending to be listed and traded on the NYSE under the symbol \"RERE\". The underwriters include<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/GS\">Goldman Sachs</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BAC\">Bank of America</a>China Renaissance Capital,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/601211\">Guotai Junan</a>CLSA and<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TIGR\">Tiger Brokers</a>。</p><p><b>Credit Suisse RenTech Fund Temporarily Prohibits Customers from Redeeming Some Funds</b></p><p>Credit Suisse is temporarily barring customers from redeeming all cash from a fund invested with Renaissance Technologies. Investors are rushing to redeem their investments as the strategy loses heavily.</p><p><b><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/HSBC\">HSBC</a>Shareholders vote to stop coal financing by 2040</b></p><p>Media quotes<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/HSBC\">HSBC</a>News from Friday's shareholder meeting reported that HSBC shareholders voted to phase out coal financing by 2040 and align the bank's lending with the Paris Agreement's climate goals.</p><p><b>Meituan CEO Wang Xing responds to regulatory investigation: antitrust has a positive impact on the industry</b></p><p>In the first quarter earnings conference call, Meituan CEO Wang Xing responded to recent issues such as supervision, rider well-being and merchant rates. Regarding the anti-monopoly investigation of Meituan, Wang Xing said that anti-monopoly supervision will have a positive impact on the whole Internet industry. At the same time, he said that Meituan has a special team to cooperate with the work of the regulatory authorities, and the anti-monopoly investigation will not have a great negative impact on Meituan's take-out business. At the same time, Wang Xing said, \"We strictly prohibit any form of two-choice, and have established transparent and effective reporting channels. We will continue to actively cooperate with the regulatory authorities and fully respect the independent choice of merchants.\"</p><p>----------------------------------------------------</p><p>Share good news with tiger friends. Tiger currently supports weekend orders! Pre-order is a value-added service provided by Tiger for users, which can support users to place orders in non-trading periods. At present, it supports three order types: stop-loss order, stop-loss limit order and limit order.</p><p>That is to say, users can place orders during the market closure period, such as weekends and other holidays, and the orders are saved by Tiger's trading system and automatically submitted to the exchange after the market opens.</p><p><a href=\"https://www.laohu8.com/post/131820269\" target=\"_blank\">Click for more information>>></a></p>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b23574aac95526c9e5c62ebc8dd25130","relate_stocks":{".DJI":"道琼斯",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index"},"is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1144873023","content_text":"摘要：美股三大股指集体收涨，芯片股多数上涨；热门中概股周五收盘涨跌不一，欢聚集团跌近10%；美国通胀指标又爆表了！4月核心PCE同比增长3.1%；二手电子产品交易平台爱回收提交赴美IPO申请>>>海外市场美股收盘：三大股指集体收涨 标普500指数实现三连阳美东时间周五，三大指数均小幅收涨，标普500指数实现三连阳，大型科技股普遍表现不佳，芯片股多数上涨。截至收盘，道琼斯指数涨0.19%，报34520.09点；标普500指数涨0.08%，报4203.57点；纳斯达克指数涨0.09%，报13747.61点。本周美股三大股指均录得涨幅。本周道指上涨0.9%，标普500指数上涨1.2%，纳指上涨2.1%；在5月份，标普500指数上涨0.6%，为连续第四个月上涨。本月道指上涨1.9%，纳指下跌1.5%。热门中概股周五收盘涨跌不一 欢聚集团跌近10%热门中概股周五收盘涨跌不一，蘑菇街涨超9%，财报显示该公司第四财季营收9090万元，同比下滑23.6%；欢聚集团跌近10%，财报显示该公司一季度全球移动设备平均月活用户（MAU）同比降低15.1%；京东涨1.52%，阿里巴巴涨0.57%，哔哩哔哩涨3.06%，腾讯音乐涨2.14%，网易涨1.35%，拼多多涨4.36%，百度涨0.75%，爱奇艺跌1.86%本周美国WTI原油上涨4.3% 布伦特原油涨4.8%原油期货价格周五收盘涨跌不一。在本周与本月，美国WTI与伦敦布伦特原油均录得涨幅。纽约商品交易所7月交割的西德州中质原油（WTI）期货价格下跌53美分，跌幅0.8%，收于每桶66.32美元；伦敦洲际交易所7月交割的布伦特原油期货价格上涨17美分，涨幅0.2%，收于每桶69.63美元。按照最活跃合约计算，WTI原油本周上涨4.3%，5月上涨4.3%。布伦特原油本周上涨4.8%，5月上涨3.5%。黄金期货周五站上1900关口 本月上涨7.8%黄金期货价格周五重返1900美元上方。本周及本月黄金期货均录得涨幅。纽约商品交易所8月交割的黄金期货价格上涨6.80美元，涨幅0.4%，收于每盎司1905.30美元，创1月7日以来最高收盘价。按照最活跃合约计算，黄金期货价格本周上涨1.5%，本月上涨7.8%。国际宏观拜登公布6万亿美元预算方案：包括两项标志性的国内提案美国总统拜登向国会提交了他的2022财政年度预算申请，这是他担任总统以来的首个正式预算，其与前任总统特朗普的预算有很大不同。拜登的预算包括了他的两项标志性的国内提案，美国家庭计划和美国就业计划，这两项提案都还没有得到国会的认真讨论。美国财政部预计拜登加税计划十年可增加3.6万亿美元税收美国财政部周五发布“绿皮书”称，总统拜登的加税计划将在未来十年带来3.6万亿美元税收收入。这将构成拜登4万亿美元重建美国经济和社会保障网络计划的主要资金来源。美国通胀指标又爆表了！4月核心PCE同比增长3.1%，创1992年来最高据美国商务部统计，美国4月PCE物价指数同比升3.6%，超预期升3.5%，较前值2.3%大幅提高，创2008年以来最快增速，远高于美联储的官方通胀目标2%。美国商品贸易逆差年内首次收窄 因出口升至纪录高位由于出口额飙升至创纪录水平，且进口额从历史高位回落，美国商品贸易逆差今年首次收窄。美国商务部周五发布的数据显示，4月份贸易逆差从前月的906亿美元收窄至852亿美元。彭博调查的经济学家预估中值为920亿美元。耶伦呼吁G7继续提供财政支持 支持央行数字货币政策探索美国财政部在一份声明中表示，财政部长珍妮特-耶伦（Janet Yellen）周五告诉七国集团（G7）财长和央行行长，提供进一步的财政支持“以促进疫情后的强劲和持久复苏”十分重要。公司新闻散户逼空行情暂歇 AMC早盘暴涨38%后转为收跌处在散户逼空风口浪尖的AMC在连续四日大涨之后，周五早盘涨幅一度扩大至38%，但之后回落，最终收跌1.58%。近期表现大热的其他散户抱团股周五也表现疲软，黑莓和诺基亚收盘涨幅均不足2%，游戏驿站更以下跌12.58%报收。特斯拉主动召回部分Model3车型和ModelY车型据Electrek：特斯拉宣布将主动召回2018年12月至2021年3月间生产的部分Model 3车型，以及2020年1月至2021年1月间生产的部分ModelY车型，以检查刹车卡钳螺栓。二手电子产品交易平台爱回收提交赴美IPO申请二手电子产品交易平台爱回收提交赴美IPO申请，有意按代码“RERE”在纽交所挂牌交易，承销商包括高盛、美国银行、华兴资本、国泰君安、里昂证券以及老虎证券。瑞信RenTech基金暂时禁止客户赎回部分资金瑞信正暂时禁止客户从一支与Renaissance Technologies投资的基金赎回所有现金。因该策略亏损严重，投资者正匆忙赎回投资。汇丰股东投票决定到2040年停止煤炭融资媒体援引汇丰周五股东大会的消息报道，汇丰股东投票通过到2040年期间逐步淘汰煤炭融资并使该行的贷款与《巴黎协定》的气候目标一致。美团CEO王兴回应监管调查：反垄断对行业有正向影响在一季度财报电话会议上，美团CEO王兴对于近期的监管、骑手福祉、商家费率等问题作出了回应。对于美团接受反垄断调查一事，王兴表示反垄断监管对于整个互联网行业将产生正向影响，同时表示美团有专门团队配合监管层的工作，反垄断调查不会对美团的外卖业务产生很大的负面影响。同时，王兴表示，“我们严格禁止任何形式的二选一，并建立了透明有效的举报渠道，会继续积极配合监管部门，充分尊重商家的自主选择权。”----------------------------------------------------和虎友们分享一个好消息，老虎当前支持周末下单了！预挂单是老虎为用户提供的一种增值服务，可以支持用户在非交易时间段下单，目前支持止损单、止损限价单、限价单3种订单类型。也就是说，用户可以在休市期间，比如周末等节假日进行挂单，订单由老虎的交易系统保存，待开市后自动提交到交易所。点击了解详情>>>","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{".IXIC":0.9,".DJI":0.9,".SPX":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":3948,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":132752575,"gmtCreate":1622118266397,"gmtModify":1704179765934,"author":{"id":"3573688531814941","authorId":"3573688531814941","name":"ccssyy","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/788037228f49cc166fdc5223f0073775","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3573688531814941","authorIdStr":"3573688531814941"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"111","listText":"111","text":"111","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/132752575","repostId":"2138147059","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":3215,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":132073694,"gmtCreate":1622050102018,"gmtModify":1704178561059,"author":{"id":"3573688531814941","authorId":"3573688531814941","name":"ccssyy","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/788037228f49cc166fdc5223f0073775","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3573688531814941","authorIdStr":"3573688531814941"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Hi&nbsp;","listText":"Hi&nbsp;","text":"Hi","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/132073694","repostId":"2138519408","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"2138519408","kind":"highlight","pubTimestamp":1622011111,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/2138519408?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2021-05-26 14:38","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"Three factors suggest that the \"mercury retrograde period\" of tech stocks is still not over","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2138519408","media":"Wind资讯","summary":"随着市场对通胀的担忧有所消化，纳斯达克指数自5月19日以来反弹。但分析师表示，未来价格的波动因素、科技股当前估值及资金流向均表明，当前美股科技公司的回调尚未结束。\n4月29日，纳斯达克综合指数触及14","content":"<p>The Nasdaq has rebounded since May 19 as market concerns about inflation have been digested. However, analysts said that the volatility of future prices, the current valuation of technology stocks and the flow of funds all indicate that the current correction of U.S. technology companies is not over yet.</p><p>On April 29, the Nasdaq Composite Index hit a record high of 14,211. Since then, the index has pulled back nearly 3%. While the index's gains of more than 1.5% on Monday may reassure some investors, the macro drivers of tech stocks that have led the market over the past 10 years remain challenging.</p><p>\"We see nothing wrong with the fundamentals of the tech space, but we believe that this is an overheld, overvalued part of the market that is a wrong macro backdrop for this segment of the market right now,\" said RBC strategist Lori Calvasina.</p><p>The backdrop for the current market is that growth and inflation are accelerating as the economy reopens after a pandemic-induced shock. As a result, industries and investment styles that benefit more from accelerated GDP growth are preferred compared to areas and investment styles that can gain growth in other environments.</p><p>Led by Parag Thatte<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/DB\">Deutsche Bank</a>Strategists released a report on Friday showing that investors continue to put their money into stocks and fixed-income products seen as inflation winners, such as TIPS, energy, materials and financial stocks.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f3a6d3d53b8204d51b0cd1ebdb3c8fb7\" tg-width=\"796\" tg-height=\"691\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>Energy, materials, and financial stocks also performed well in cyclical trading, value trading, and reopening trading. Commodity prices have soared, as have expectations for infrastructure. Higher economic growth combined with higher interest rates has energized the financial system.</p><p>Funding into this space comes from investors who are reducing tech deals. Calvasina said: \"We think inflationary pressures are already there, and the tech sector is one of the biggest sources of funding to get back to reflation... so we don't think this is the best time to get back to this space.\"</p><p>In a report published last week, Calvasina and her team delved into the shift in investor style from different angles, trying to explore whether the pullback at Big Tech has been sufficient. Several major reasons indicate that the current pullback of technology companies is not over yet.</p><p>Calvasina noted that the current valuation of tech stocks remains on the high side relative to the rest of the market and the historical valuation of tech stocks. As we mentioned above, the inflow picture has not been encouraging, with tech ETFs seeing flat inflows this year.</p><p><b>Economic data disappoints markets</b></p><p>Consumer confidence was lower than expected in April, and the Conference Board's overall confidence index fell more than expected last month. The short-term income outlook is pressured, at least to some extent, by inflation concerns, the Council noted. A separate report released Tuesday morning showed that home prices rose by the most in 15 years in March, highlighting the supply-demand mismatch in more key areas of the economy pushing prices higher.</p><p>However, some members of the Federal Open Market Committee (fomc) suggested that market participants may not need to worry that rising prices will contribute to recent changes in monetary policy in the short term. St. Louis Federal Reserve Bank President James Bullard on Monday<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/YHOO\">Yahoo</a>Finance said he believes the rise in inflation is \"mostly temporary\" and that the Fed \"has not yet reached it\" when it discusses tapering asset purchases.</p><p>Esther George, chairwoman of the Kansas City Federal Reserve Bank, said in a separate commentary that she did not want the Fed to \"rely too heavily on historical relationships and dynamics in judging the inflation outlook\". Fed officials have recently made a series of remarks downplaying the need for short-term monetary policy measures that could dampen market rallies.</p><p>While trading over the past two days has given investors at least a brief respite after last week's stock market sell-off, some strategists remain cautious about stocks given that concerns about inflation remain high.</p><p>Shawn Cruz, senior market strategist at TD Ameritrade, told Yahoo Finance on Monday, \"Now everyone knows that they should be worried about inflationary pressures and the impact this could have on monetary policy or corporate profitability.\"\"If they decide to keep the rising input costs on the balance sheet, that's fine, at least on the consumer side, we won't see inflation rise, but when earnings come out (in the second quarter), we may see higher margins.\"</p><p>Others have also pointed out that the latest technology-led advances can be short-lived. Calvasina said: \"We still believe inflationary pressures exist, with people moving money away from tech stocks to other sectors, such as financials, energy stocks and materials stocks. We don't see these inflationary pressures abating in the near term.\"</p>","source":"wind","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Three factors suggest that the \"mercury retrograde period\" of tech stocks is still not over</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nThree factors suggest that the \"mercury retrograde period\" of tech stocks is still not over\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">Wind资讯</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-05-26 14:38</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>The Nasdaq has rebounded since May 19 as market concerns about inflation have been digested. However, analysts said that the volatility of future prices, the current valuation of technology stocks and the flow of funds all indicate that the current correction of U.S. technology companies is not over yet.</p><p>On April 29, the Nasdaq Composite Index hit a record high of 14,211. Since then, the index has pulled back nearly 3%. While the index's gains of more than 1.5% on Monday may reassure some investors, the macro drivers of tech stocks that have led the market over the past 10 years remain challenging.</p><p>\"We see nothing wrong with the fundamentals of the tech space, but we believe that this is an overheld, overvalued part of the market that is a wrong macro backdrop for this segment of the market right now,\" said RBC strategist Lori Calvasina.</p><p>The backdrop for the current market is that growth and inflation are accelerating as the economy reopens after a pandemic-induced shock. As a result, industries and investment styles that benefit more from accelerated GDP growth are preferred compared to areas and investment styles that can gain growth in other environments.</p><p>Led by Parag Thatte<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/DB\">Deutsche Bank</a>Strategists released a report on Friday showing that investors continue to put their money into stocks and fixed-income products seen as inflation winners, such as TIPS, energy, materials and financial stocks.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f3a6d3d53b8204d51b0cd1ebdb3c8fb7\" tg-width=\"796\" tg-height=\"691\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>Energy, materials, and financial stocks also performed well in cyclical trading, value trading, and reopening trading. Commodity prices have soared, as have expectations for infrastructure. Higher economic growth combined with higher interest rates has energized the financial system.</p><p>Funding into this space comes from investors who are reducing tech deals. Calvasina said: \"We think inflationary pressures are already there, and the tech sector is one of the biggest sources of funding to get back to reflation... so we don't think this is the best time to get back to this space.\"</p><p>In a report published last week, Calvasina and her team delved into the shift in investor style from different angles, trying to explore whether the pullback at Big Tech has been sufficient. Several major reasons indicate that the current pullback of technology companies is not over yet.</p><p>Calvasina noted that the current valuation of tech stocks remains on the high side relative to the rest of the market and the historical valuation of tech stocks. As we mentioned above, the inflow picture has not been encouraging, with tech ETFs seeing flat inflows this year.</p><p><b>Economic data disappoints markets</b></p><p>Consumer confidence was lower than expected in April, and the Conference Board's overall confidence index fell more than expected last month. The short-term income outlook is pressured, at least to some extent, by inflation concerns, the Council noted. A separate report released Tuesday morning showed that home prices rose by the most in 15 years in March, highlighting the supply-demand mismatch in more key areas of the economy pushing prices higher.</p><p>However, some members of the Federal Open Market Committee (fomc) suggested that market participants may not need to worry that rising prices will contribute to recent changes in monetary policy in the short term. St. Louis Federal Reserve Bank President James Bullard on Monday<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/YHOO\">Yahoo</a>Finance said he believes the rise in inflation is \"mostly temporary\" and that the Fed \"has not yet reached it\" when it discusses tapering asset purchases.</p><p>Esther George, chairwoman of the Kansas City Federal Reserve Bank, said in a separate commentary that she did not want the Fed to \"rely too heavily on historical relationships and dynamics in judging the inflation outlook\". Fed officials have recently made a series of remarks downplaying the need for short-term monetary policy measures that could dampen market rallies.</p><p>While trading over the past two days has given investors at least a brief respite after last week's stock market sell-off, some strategists remain cautious about stocks given that concerns about inflation remain high.</p><p>Shawn Cruz, senior market strategist at TD Ameritrade, told Yahoo Finance on Monday, \"Now everyone knows that they should be worried about inflationary pressures and the impact this could have on monetary policy or corporate profitability.\"\"If they decide to keep the rising input costs on the balance sheet, that's fine, at least on the consumer side, we won't see inflation rise, but when earnings come out (in the second quarter), we may see higher margins.\"</p><p>Others have also pointed out that the latest technology-led advances can be short-lived. Calvasina said: \"We still believe inflationary pressures exist, with people moving money away from tech stocks to other sectors, such as financials, energy stocks and materials stocks. We don't see these inflationary pressures abating in the near term.\"</p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> source：<a href=\"http://www.zhitongcaijing.com/content/detail/481817.html\">Wind资讯</a></p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9d770a193c6a88684d0203fd2ec91e4a","relate_stocks":{".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite"},"source_url":"http://www.zhitongcaijing.com/content/detail/481817.html","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2138519408","content_text":"随着市场对通胀的担忧有所消化，纳斯达克指数自5月19日以来反弹。但分析师表示，未来价格的波动因素、科技股当前估值及资金流向均表明，当前美股科技公司的回调尚未结束。\n4月29日，纳斯达克综合指数触及14211点的纪录高点。自那以来，该指数回调已接近3%。尽管该指数周一超过1.5%的涨幅可能会让一些投资者放心，但过去10年引领市场的科技股的宏观驱动力仍面临挑战。\nRBC策略师Lori Calvasina表示：“我们认为科技领域的基本面没有任何问题，但我们认为，这是市场上被过度持有、估值过高的一部分，目前对这部分市场来说，这是一个错误的宏观背景。”\n当前市场的背景是，随着经济在一场疫情引发的冲击后重新开放，增长和通胀正在加速。因此，与能够在其他环境中获得增长的领域和投资风格相比，从GDP加速增长中获益更多的行业和投资风格更受青睐。\n以Parag Thatte为首的德意志银行策略师上周五发布报告显示，投资者继续将资金投入被视为通胀赢家的股票和固定收益产品，如TIPS、能源、材料和金融类股。\n\n能源、材料和金融类股在周期性交易、价值交易和重新开放交易中也有很好的表现。大宗商品价格飙升，对基础设施的期望也在上升。更高的经济增长与更高的利率相结合，为金融体系注入了活力。\n进入这一领域的资金来自于减少科技交易的投资者。Calvasina称：\"我们认为通胀压力已经存在，科技行业是重返通货再膨胀的最大资金来源之一……所以我们认为现在还不是回到这个领域的最佳时机。”\n在上周发表的一份报告中，Calvasina和她的团队从不同的角度深入研究了投资者风格的转变，试图探索大型科技公司的回调是否已经充分。而几大原因表明，目前科技公司的回调尚未结束。\nCalvasina指出，相对于市场其他部分和科技股的历史估值，科技股当前的估值仍然偏高。正如我们上面提到的，资金流入情况并不令人鼓舞，今年科技ETF的资金流入持平。\n经济数据令市场失望\n4月份消费者信心指数低于预期，美国经济谘商会(Conference Board)上月的整体信心指数跌幅超过预期。美国经济谘商会指出，至少在一定程度上，短期收入前景受到通胀担忧的压力。周二上午公布的另一份报告显示，3月份房价创下15年来的最大涨幅，突显出经济中更多关键领域的供需不匹配推高了房价。\n不过，美国联邦公开市场委员会(fomc)部分成员暗示，市场人士可能不需要担心物价上涨会在短期内促成货币政策的近期变动。圣路易斯联邦储备银行总裁布拉德(James Bullard)周一对雅虎财经表示，他认为通胀上升\"大多是暂时的\"，而美联储在讨论缩减资产购买规模时\"还没有达到\"。\n堪萨斯城联邦储备银行主席埃斯特•乔治在另一篇评论中表示，她不希望美联储\"在判断通胀前景时过度依赖历史关系和动态\"。美联储官员最近发表了一系列讲话，淡化了采取短期货币政策措施的必要性，这些措施可能会抑制市场涨势。\n尽管在上周的股市抛售之后，过去两天的交易给投资者提供了至少短暂的喘息机会，但鉴于对通胀的担忧仍居高不下，一些策略师仍对股市持谨慎态度。\nTD Ameritrade高级市场策略师Shawn Cruz周一对雅虎财经表示，\"现在所有人都知道，他们应该担心通胀压力，以及这可能对货币政策或企业盈利能力造成的影响。\"“如果他们决定将不断上升的投入成本保留在资产负债表上，那很好，至少在消费者方面，我们不会看到通胀上升，但(第二季度)盈利出来时，我们可能会看到利润率上升。”\n其他人也指出，最新的技术引领的进步可能是短暂的。Calvasina表示：“我们仍认为通胀压力存在，人们将资金从科技股移至其他板块，如金融股、能源股和材料股。我们不认为这些通胀压力会在短期内减轻。”","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{".IXIC":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":4245,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":108967005,"gmtCreate":1619994048107,"gmtModify":1704336949715,"author":{"id":"3573688531814941","authorId":"3573688531814941","name":"ccssyy","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/788037228f49cc166fdc5223f0073775","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3573688531814941","authorIdStr":"3573688531814941"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"666","listText":"666","text":"666","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/108967005","repostId":"2132567538","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"2132567538","kind":"highlight","pubTimestamp":1619941518,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/2132567538?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2021-05-02 15:45","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"Is the GDP of the United States strong or weak in the first quarter?","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2132567538","media":"智通财经网","summary":"本文来自“申万宏源宏观”。摘要一、周观点：美国一季度GDP究竟是偏强还是偏弱?21Q1美国GDP同比0.4%，略低于市场预期。美国21Q1  GDP实际同比0.4%，疫情以来首次同比转正，环比1.6%","content":"<p><b>This article comes from \"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/000166\">Shen Wan Hongyuan</a>Macro \".</b></p><p>Abstract</p><p><b>1. Week's Viewpoint: Is the GDP of the United States strong or weak in the first quarter?</b></p><p><b>21Q1 U.S. GDP was 0.4% year-on-year, slightly below market expectations.</b>U.S. GDP in 21Q1 was actually 0.4% year-on-year, turning positive year-on-year for the first time since the pandemic, and 1.6% quarter-on-quarter. The main contributing factors were commodity consumption, service consumption and non-residential investment, which showed the rapid recovery of the US economy under the improvement of the epidemic situation and financial subsidies. However, the main drag items are the change of private inventory and imports. In fact, the GDP growth rate of the United States in the first quarter was slightly lower than the market expectation, indicating that the market lacked understanding of the slow production recovery caused by excessive financial subsidies in the United States, and the expectation of excessive optimism about the improvement of the epidemic situation.</p><p><b>Resident consumption: subsidies promote commodity consumption, and the service industry is repaired when the epidemic eases.</b>1) In 21Q1, U.S. personal consumption expenditure drove GDP by 1.1 percentage points year-on-year, a significant improvement of 3 percentage points compared with 20Q4. Commodity consumption is mainly driven by durable goods, while the improvement of service consumption on GDP is greater than that of durable goods consumption; 2) From the perspective of monthly high frequency, PCE in March was 8.5% year-on-year and 3.7% month-on-month, and it strengthened again after a slight drop in the vacuum period of direct subsidies in February. It shows the immediate stimulating effect of the subsidy payment of $1,400 in March on consumption, and the recovery of service consumption under the relaxation of prevention and control measures. However, judging from the intensity of service consumption recovery, it is actually slightly weaker than the overly optimistic expectation of overseas markets in February-March.</p><p><b>Investment: Equipment investment improved significantly, interest rates inhibited real estate investment, and inventory replenishment did not appear.</b>In 21Q1, domestic private investment drove GDP by 0.8 percentage points year-on-year, a slight improvement of 0.1 percentage points compared with the fourth quarter. 1) Improvement in non-residential investment shows that the U.S. production sector expects an improvement in the economic outlook; 2) The decline in the year-on-year contribution of private inventory changes to 21Q1 GDP is the manifestation of the tear of supply and demand in the US economy. The demand is strong and the production recovers slowly, which leads to the decline of inventory, which means that the strength of commodity prices in Q1 cannot be supported by the logic of strong industrial production and active inventory replenishment in the US; 3) The year-on-year contribution of residential investment to GDP remained basically stable, while the month-on-month growth rate was suppressed with the overall rise of US interest rate in the previous period. The follow-up is expected to continue to cool with the medium-term upward process of interest rates.</p><p><b>Government spending and net exports: Subsidies drive government spending to increase, and the widening gap between supply and demand leads to a high increase in imports.</b>The tear of supply and demand in the U.S. economy has led to the deepening of the drag of net exports on GDP. In 21Q1, net exports dragged down GDP by 2 percentage points year-on-year, and the degree of drag widened by 0.7 percentage points compared with the previous 20Q4. Government expenditure in 21Q1 increased GDP by 0.1 percentage point year-on-year, mainly due to the issuance of direct subsidy checks for residents by the U.S. government to the banking system and the cost of purchasing vaccines.</p><p><b>It is expected that the economic recovery of the United States will be at a high point in the second quarter, and we will pay attention to the follow-up progress of the epidemic.</b>We believe that the strength of the future economic recovery in the United States depends on the vaccination process and the spread of COVID-19. Under the assumption that the epidemic situation in the United States continues to ease and the service industry is gradually recovering, it is expected that the second quarter will be the high point of recovery of the United States economy. However, the tear between supply and demand caused by excessive subsidies will continue until September, and the strength of the recovery of the United States economy during the year may not be as strong as the market expectations. Personal consumption expenditure: It is expected that the first quarter will be the high point of commodity consumption, and the service industry consumption will continue to gradually recover with the easing of the epidemic. However, the spread of more contagious virus variants in the United States and overseas countries will also affect the recovery intensity of the subsequent service industry; Investment: Improvements in non-residential investments require attention to subsequent pandemic progress. Residential investment will decline with the gradual cooling of the real estate market; Private inventory movements may have to wait until the end of unemployment benefits in September to improve. Government spending and net exports: Government spending is expected to continue to contribute positively to GDP year-on-year until the fourth quarter. Net exports will return to normal levels as the supply-demand gap narrows later this year.</p><p><b>Global macro data</b></p><p><b>High Frequency Data This Week</b>: New orders for durable goods in the United States all rose year-on-year</p><p><b>Pandemic</b>: New confirmed cases in the U.S. declined.</p><p><b>Demand</b>: Japanese retail sales picked up sharply year-on-year.</p><p><b>Supply and Employment</b>: New orders for durable goods in the United States all rose year-on-year.</p><p><b>TRADE</b>: The imports and exports of the United States rose sharply year-on-year in March.</p><p><b>Inflation and Commodities</b>: Oil prices rose slightly.</p><p><b>REALTY</b>: The contracted sales index of existing homes in the United States rose in March.</p><p><b>Monetary Policy and Exchange Rates</b>: the US Dollar Index falls, gold prices stable.</p><p><b>Global Macro Calendar</b>: Watch US ISM Manufacturing PMI</p><p>text</p><p><b>1. Week's Viewpoint: Is the GDP of the United States strong or weak in the first quarter?</b></p><p><b>1.21Q1 U.S. GDP 0.4% YoY, slightly below market expectations</b></p><p>The GDP of the United States in 21Q1 was actually 0.4% year-on-year, turning positive year-on-year for the first time since the epidemic, and 1.6% month-on-month. The main contributing factors were commodity consumption, service consumption and non-residential investment, which showed a relatively rapid recovery of the US economy under the improvement of the epidemic situation and financial subsidies. The main drag items are private inventory changes and imports, and in fact, the GDP growth rate of the United States in the first quarter was slightly lower than the market expectation, indicating that the market has insufficient awareness of the slow production recovery caused by excessive financial subsidies in the United States, and its overly optimistic expectation of the improvement of the epidemic situation.</p><p><img src=\"http://img.zhitongcaijing.com/images/contentformat/867b3b31bf5a4410ca85884cf283ce1f.jpg\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"588\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><b>2. Resident consumption: subsidies promote commodity consumption, the epidemic eases and the service industry repairs</b></p><p>In 21Q1, financial subsidies of up to 2,000 USD/person stimulated commodity consumption; The easing of the pandemic promoted the recovery of service consumption, but it was slightly weaker than the optimistic expectation of overseas markets in the previous period. 1) From a quarterly perspective, the personal consumption expenditure of the United States in 21Q1 drove GDP by 1.1 percentage points year-on-year, a substantial improvement of 3 percentage points compared with 20Q4. It jumped from the biggest drag on GDP in the fourth quarter to the biggest contribution, showing that the first quarter had the stimulating effect of the subsidy of 600 USD in January and the subsidy of 1,400 USD issued in March on consumption, and the gradual release of service consumption under the easing of the epidemic. 2) From the perspective of monthly high frequency, PCE reached 8.5% year-on-year and 3.7% month-on-month in March, and strengthened again after a slight drop in the vacuum period of direct subsidies in February. Among them, the year-on-year growth rate of durable goods and service consumption increased again, reaching 43.3% and 4.8% respectively in March, while non-durable goods slowed down slightly (4.3%) year-on-year, showing that the subsidy payment of $1,400 in March had an immediate stimulating effect on consumption, and the recovery of service consumption under the relaxation of prevention and control measures. However, judging from the intensity of service consumption recovery, it is actually slightly weaker than the overly optimistic expectation of overseas markets in February-March.</p><p><img src=\"http://img.zhitongcaijing.com/images/contentformat/fb6a3cdada866cc05b11f3b44abb7b40.jpg\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"398\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>Commodity consumption and service consumption jointly drive the high increase of personal consumption expenditure. 1) Commodity consumption is mainly driven by durable goods. In 21Q1, commodity consumption increased by 3.2 percentage points to GDP, an improvement of 1.5 percentage points compared with 20Q4, mainly due to the high increase of durable goods under the fiscal stimulus in the first quarter. In 21Q1, the contribution of durable goods to GDP improved significantly by 1.3 percentage points compared with the fourth quarter, while the contribution of non-durable goods to GDP only improved slightly by 0.3 percentage points; 2) The improvement of service consumption on GDP is greater than that of durable goods consumption. In 21Q1, although service consumption still had a negative pull of-1.4% on GDP, it has significantly improved by 1.6 percentage points compared with the previous quarter, which is even more than that of durable goods consumption, showing that service consumption has greater flexibility to improve under the dual factors of financial subsidy + epidemic easing.</p><p><img src=\"http://img.zhitongcaijing.com/images/contentformat/e8b1b37f95a3c799e28a194bc63e56e7.jpg\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"399\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><b>3. Investment: Equipment investment improved significantly, interest rates inhibited real estate investment, and inventory replenishment did not appear</b></p><p>The effect of non-residential investment on GDP has greatly improved, and private inventory has turned into a drag. In 21Q1, domestic private investment drove GDP by 0.8 percentage points year-on-year, a slight improvement of 0.1 percentage points compared with the fourth quarter.</p><p>1) Improvement in non-residential investment shows that the U.S. production sector has improved its expectations for the economic outlook. The main contributor to the improvement in private investment was non-residential investment (0.6 percentage point improvement), mainly from equipment investment, indicating that manufacturing enterprises remain optimistic about the prospect of economic recovery.</p><p>2) The decline in the year-on-year contribution of private inventory changes to 21Q1 GDP is the manifestation of the tear of supply and demand in the US economy. Strong demand and slow production recovery lead to the decline of inventory, which means that the strength of commodity prices in Q1 cannot be supported by the logic of strong industrial production and active inventory replenishment in the US. The main drag on private investment was the movement of private inventories (0.4 percentage point drag).</p><p>3) The year-on-year contribution of residential investment to GDP remained basically stable, while the month-on-month growth rate was suppressed with the overall rise of US interest rate in the previous period. It is expected that the follow-up will continue to cool with the medium-term upward process of interest rates. In 21Q1, the pull of residential investment on GDP remained stable, but with the gradual increase of mortgage interest rates in the past 21 years, the U.S. real estate market has cooled down, and the expenditure on residential construction and sales of existing houses have slowed down. It is expected that the pull effect of subsequent residential investment on GDP will gradually decline.</p><p><img src=\"http://img.zhitongcaijing.com/images/contentformat/8831f8bd60fdfc9671df61b6e741faaa.jpg\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"393\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><b>4. Government spending and net exports: Subsidies boost government spending, and the widening gap between supply and demand leads to a high increase in imports</b></p><p>The tear of supply and demand in the U.S. economy has led to the deepening of the drag of net exports on GDP. In 21Q1, net exports dragged down GDP by 2 percentage points year-on-year, and the degree of drag widened by 0.7 percentage points compared with the previous 20Q4. 1) Exports were dragged down by 1 percentage point, but they have improved by 0.2 percentage points compared with the previous quarter, showing a slight recovery of industrial production in the United States, but the improvement of personal consumption expenditure by 3.0 percentage points is still dwarfed by comparison, which actually reflects the widening of supply and demand gap in 21Q1 under excessive financial subsidies in the United States; 2) In 21Q1, imports dragged down GDP by 1.0 percentage points year-on-year, and the degree of drag greatly expanded by 0.9 percentage points compared with the previous quarter. The direct consequence of the widening gap between supply and demand in the United States is the expansion of import scale.</p><p>Government expenditure in 21Q1 increased GDP by 0.1 percentage point year-on-year, mainly due to the issuance of direct subsidy checks for residents by the U.S. government to the banking system and the cost of purchasing vaccines.</p><p><img src=\"http://img.zhitongcaijing.com/images/contentformat/1e6d4ceb162a00ae93de51b3cf6bb71b.jpg\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"386\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><b>5. It is expected that the U.S. economic recovery will be at a high point in the second quarter, and pay attention to the follow-up progress of the epidemic</b></p><p>Looking ahead, we believe that the strength of future U.S. economic recovery depends on the vaccination process and the spread of COVID-19. Under the assumption that the epidemic situation in the United States continues to ease and the service industry is gradually recovering, it is expected that the second quarter will be the high point of recovery of the United States economy. However, the tear between supply and demand caused by excessive subsidies will continue until September, and the strength of the recovery of the United States economy during the year may not be as strong as the market expectations.</p><p>Personal consumption expenditure: 1) Although 21Q1 commodity consumption shows an extremely strong momentum, we expect the first quarter to be the high point of commodity consumption, and it will gradually decline with the subsidy ebb; 2) The consumption of the service industry will continue to recover gradually as the epidemic eases, but the global epidemic has rebounded since March, especially in European countries and emerging countries. At the same time, the spread of more contagious virus variants in the United States and overseas countries will also affect the recovery intensity of the subsequent service industry.</p><p>Investment: 1) The main driving force of the improvement of non-residential investment in 21Q1 is the expectation of economic improvement. From the current point of view, the global epidemic is the core factor determining the intensity of economic recovery, and it is necessary to pay attention to the follow-up epidemic progress; 2) Residential investment will decline with the gradual cooling of the real estate market; 3) The change of private inventory, that is, the intensity of inventory replenishment, will depend on whether the current situation of supply and demand tearing in the United States can be eased. From the current point of view, it will take until the unemployment subsidy ends in September before there will be a significant bridging trend at both ends of supply and demand in the United States, which will then drive inventory investment.</p><p>Government expenditure and net exports: 1) With the continuous payment of unemployment subsidies in the second and third quarters, government expenditure is expected to continue to make a positive contribution to GDP year-on-year before the fourth quarter, and if the U.S. Employment Plan or the American Family Plan can be implemented within the year, it will also boost the level of government expenditure; In terms of net exports, exports will depend on the progress of the recovery of industrial production in the United States. As mentioned above, they will not be boosted until the fourth quarter, while imports, on the contrary, will fall back to normal levels as the supply-demand gap narrows later this year.</p><p><img src=\"http://img.zhitongcaijing.com/images/contentformat/32e1b124c2e79173310a2a69f29f1ee7.jpg\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"547\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><b>2. Global macro data: New confirmed cases in the United States declined</b></p><p><b>1. Epidemic: New confirmed cases in the United States decline</b></p><p>New confirmed cases in the U.S. dropped this week. The number of newly confirmed cases in the United States dropped to more than 53,000 on average on 7 days. As of April 29th, the global COVID-19 epidemic has been diagnosed more than 150 million, with 3.14 million deaths and 120 million recoveries. This week (April 27th-April 30th), there were 220,000 and 9,000 newly confirmed cases in the United States and the United Kingdom respectively.</p><p>As of April 28, Israel has received the most COVID-19 vaccines per 100 people worldwide, reaching 121.1 shots per 100 people, 70.2 shots per 100 people in the United States and 70.9 shots per 100 people in the United Kingdom. As of April 28, Israel had the highest proportion of fully vaccinated people in the world, at 58.7%, while the United States and Britain had 29.3% and 20.7% respectively.</p><p><img src=\"http://img.zhitongcaijing.com/images/contentformat/887a942234cb8fe459a2f83e1d51371f.jpg\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"591\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><img src=\"http://img.zhitongcaijing.com/images/contentformat/62573bfd15fa133a1b4a5d4e236f878d.jpg\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"397\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><b>2. Demand: Japanese retail sales picked up sharply year-on-year</b></p><p>Both retail sales and wholesale sales in Japan rose sharply year-on-year. Japan's retail sales index in March was 5.3% year-on-year, of which retail textiles and apparel were 15.8% year-on-year, and the wholesale sales index in March was 1.0% year-on-year.</p><p><img src=\"http://img.zhitongcaijing.com/images/contentformat/a115423dbfa92a2b68fd1ddba7b7202c.jpg\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"432\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>South Korea's retail sales continued to grow year-on-year in March, and semi-durable goods consumption increased significantly. South Korea's retail sales in March increased by 3.5 percentage points to 13.5% year-on-year, of which the consumption of semi-durable goods grew the fastest, 35.5% year-on-year; Durable goods were 13.6% and non-durable goods were 6.5% year-on-year.</p><p><img src=\"http://img.zhitongcaijing.com/images/contentformat/660433692ab7c356ac6e92af5532c956.jpg\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"549\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><b>3. Supply and employment: New orders for durable goods in the United States all rose year-on-year</b></p><p>The inventory of durable goods in the United States increased, and the growth rate of new orders both increased year-on-year. U.S. durable goods inventories reached $431.84 billion in March, up 1.0% month-over-month and 1.7% year-over-year. New orders for durable goods in the United States rose 0.5% month-on-month in March and rose sharply by 25% year-on-year.</p><p><img src=\"http://img.zhitongcaijing.com/images/contentformat/00d167c28987b587b0353bdb22cabcb3.jpg\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"397\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>Japan's unemployment rate fell to 2.6% in March. Japan's unemployment rate fell 0.3 percentage points to 2.6% in March from the previous month. South Korea's industrial production index increased year-on-year, and the industry continued to rebound. South Korea's industrial production index rose 5.7% year-on-year and 0.8% month-on-month to 112.6 in March.</p><p><img src=\"http://img.zhitongcaijing.com/images/contentformat/3e518f69ea70eb9423bd2c4c0800a9d4.jpg\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"393\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>U.S. industrial materials production continues to rise. 1) As of the week of April 24th, the weekly crude steel output in the United States increased by 43.6% year-on-year, and the capacity utilization rate increased slightly by 0.4 percentage points from last week to 78.4%; 2) U.S. refinery operable capacity utilization rose 0.4 percentage points to 85.4% as of April 23.</p><p><img src=\"http://img.zhitongcaijing.com/images/contentformat/08378049f4011957a1ca13a61b5f7ee9.jpg\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"395\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>The number of initial claims for unemployment benefits in the United States fell slightly that week, and the number of continuing claims for unemployment benefits rose slightly. On the week of April 24th, the number of initial unemployment claims in the United States reached 553,000, down 13,000 from last week; In the week of April 17th, the number of people who continued to claim unemployment benefits reached 3.66 million, an increase of 9,000 from the previous month.</p><p><img src=\"http://img.zhitongcaijing.com/images/contentformat/50abaebb23322c65845134f36edf2eac.jpg\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"550\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><b>4. Trade: U.S. imports and exports both rose sharply year-on-year in March</b></p><p>U.S. imports and exports both rose sharply year-on-year in March. The growth rate of U.S. exports in March rose sharply by 16.5 percentage points from the previous month to 11.5%, while imports increased by 20.6% year-on-year. The U.S. goods trade balance in March was-$90.59 billion.</p><p><img src=\"http://img.zhitongcaijing.com/images/contentformat/b94fcaf0b73f26e0f7e86a9f8b746b80.jpg\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"549\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><b>5. Inflation and commodities: Oil prices edge up</b></p><p>EIA crude oil inventories rose by 9 million barrels in the week of April 28, and U.S. crude oil production fell slightly by 100,000 barrels per day to 10.9 million barrels per day. As of April 29th, the weekly average price of WTI crude oil rose to $63.2/barrel; The average weekly price of Brent oil rose to $66.6/barrel.</p><p><img src=\"http://img.zhitongcaijing.com/images/contentformat/2ea9504a69c4ccccc0e74ff1a56da96e.jpg\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"396\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><img src=\"http://img.zhitongcaijing.com/images/contentformat/e2a42a869453a51bf63a352119f75e6a.jpg\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"402\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><b>6. Real estate: U.S. existing home contracted sales index rose year-on-year in March</b></p><p>The U.S. S&P/CS house price index rose for eight consecutive months in February. In February, the U.S. S&P/CS house price index rose by 11.9% year-on-year to 246.0, rising for eight consecutive months. The contracted sales index of existing homes in the United States in March was 23.3% year-on-year and 1.9% month-on-month.</p><p><img src=\"http://img.zhitongcaijing.com/images/contentformat/6ac3751240b8a02c34f4c66d93fb255b.jpg\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"398\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>Japan's new housing construction and construction orders rose sharply in March. In March, the construction of new houses in Japan started by 1.5% year-on-year and 18.1% month-on-month, and the number of construction orders in March was 12.5% year-on-year and 192.7% month-on-month, the highest increase in nearly a year.</p><p><img src=\"http://img.zhitongcaijing.com/images/contentformat/e961519800be12d5e185f10acff56a58.jpg\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"392\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>U.S. 5-year mortgage rates have fallen and 15-year, 30-year mortgage rates have risen. For the week ending April 29, 5-year mortgage rates fell 0.2 percentage points to 2.6%, while 15-year and 30-year mortgage rates rose to 2.3% and 3.0%, respectively. In the week ending April 23rd, the US MBA market index fell by 18.2 to 706.6, and the heat of the housing market dropped slightly.</p><p><img src=\"http://img.zhitongcaijing.com/images/contentformat/2eb2b206b830b79a11aed2265d986bec.jpg\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"395\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><b>7. Monetary policy and exchange rate: the US Dollar Index falls, gold prices are basically stable</b></p><p>This week, the Federal Reserve's interest rate meeting was held, Powell's speech was pigeon, the the US Dollar Index fell, and the gold price was basically stable. On April 28th, local time, the Federal Reserve announced the statement of the interest rate meeting. Powell said at the press conference after the meeting that it will still take some time to see substantial progress. Before that, the current scale of asset purchases will be maintained. It is not time to discuss Taper yet, and the the US Dollar Index continues to decline. As of April 29th, the US Dollar Index closed at 90.6140, down 0.7% from last week; The exchange rate of the euro and the pound against the US dollar (the exchange rate data of the pound as of the 28th) closed at 1.2129 and 1.3906 respectively, appreciating by 0.7% and depreciating by 0.2% respectively compared with last week; As the Bank of Canada led Taper, the Canadian dollar strengthened, closing at 1.2292, an appreciation of 1.7% from last week. This week, the average weekly price of gold in London was USD 1,774.8/oz, which was basically stable compared with last week, and the year-on-year increase decreased by 1.2pct to 3.6% compared with last week.</p><p><img src=\"http://img.zhitongcaijing.com/images/contentformat/c2e4e8d549f84a56f7d651806cc3a657.jpg\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"398\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><img src=\"http://img.zhitongcaijing.com/images/contentformat/09b461fbeb60aed3abf2e7ffd691b486.jpg\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"551\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>","source":"highlight_zhitongcaijin","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Is the GDP of the United States strong or weak in the first quarter?</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nIs the GDP of the United States strong or weak in the first quarter?\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">智通财经网</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-05-02 15:45</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><b>This article comes from \"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/000166\">Shen Wan Hongyuan</a>Macro \".</b></p><p>Abstract</p><p><b>1. Week's Viewpoint: Is the GDP of the United States strong or weak in the first quarter?</b></p><p><b>21Q1 U.S. GDP was 0.4% year-on-year, slightly below market expectations.</b>U.S. GDP in 21Q1 was actually 0.4% year-on-year, turning positive year-on-year for the first time since the pandemic, and 1.6% quarter-on-quarter. The main contributing factors were commodity consumption, service consumption and non-residential investment, which showed the rapid recovery of the US economy under the improvement of the epidemic situation and financial subsidies. However, the main drag items are the change of private inventory and imports. In fact, the GDP growth rate of the United States in the first quarter was slightly lower than the market expectation, indicating that the market lacked understanding of the slow production recovery caused by excessive financial subsidies in the United States, and the expectation of excessive optimism about the improvement of the epidemic situation.</p><p><b>Resident consumption: subsidies promote commodity consumption, and the service industry is repaired when the epidemic eases.</b>1) In 21Q1, U.S. personal consumption expenditure drove GDP by 1.1 percentage points year-on-year, a significant improvement of 3 percentage points compared with 20Q4. Commodity consumption is mainly driven by durable goods, while the improvement of service consumption on GDP is greater than that of durable goods consumption; 2) From the perspective of monthly high frequency, PCE in March was 8.5% year-on-year and 3.7% month-on-month, and it strengthened again after a slight drop in the vacuum period of direct subsidies in February. It shows the immediate stimulating effect of the subsidy payment of $1,400 in March on consumption, and the recovery of service consumption under the relaxation of prevention and control measures. However, judging from the intensity of service consumption recovery, it is actually slightly weaker than the overly optimistic expectation of overseas markets in February-March.</p><p><b>Investment: Equipment investment improved significantly, interest rates inhibited real estate investment, and inventory replenishment did not appear.</b>In 21Q1, domestic private investment drove GDP by 0.8 percentage points year-on-year, a slight improvement of 0.1 percentage points compared with the fourth quarter. 1) Improvement in non-residential investment shows that the U.S. production sector expects an improvement in the economic outlook; 2) The decline in the year-on-year contribution of private inventory changes to 21Q1 GDP is the manifestation of the tear of supply and demand in the US economy. The demand is strong and the production recovers slowly, which leads to the decline of inventory, which means that the strength of commodity prices in Q1 cannot be supported by the logic of strong industrial production and active inventory replenishment in the US; 3) The year-on-year contribution of residential investment to GDP remained basically stable, while the month-on-month growth rate was suppressed with the overall rise of US interest rate in the previous period. The follow-up is expected to continue to cool with the medium-term upward process of interest rates.</p><p><b>Government spending and net exports: Subsidies drive government spending to increase, and the widening gap between supply and demand leads to a high increase in imports.</b>The tear of supply and demand in the U.S. economy has led to the deepening of the drag of net exports on GDP. In 21Q1, net exports dragged down GDP by 2 percentage points year-on-year, and the degree of drag widened by 0.7 percentage points compared with the previous 20Q4. Government expenditure in 21Q1 increased GDP by 0.1 percentage point year-on-year, mainly due to the issuance of direct subsidy checks for residents by the U.S. government to the banking system and the cost of purchasing vaccines.</p><p><b>It is expected that the economic recovery of the United States will be at a high point in the second quarter, and we will pay attention to the follow-up progress of the epidemic.</b>We believe that the strength of the future economic recovery in the United States depends on the vaccination process and the spread of COVID-19. Under the assumption that the epidemic situation in the United States continues to ease and the service industry is gradually recovering, it is expected that the second quarter will be the high point of recovery of the United States economy. However, the tear between supply and demand caused by excessive subsidies will continue until September, and the strength of the recovery of the United States economy during the year may not be as strong as the market expectations. Personal consumption expenditure: It is expected that the first quarter will be the high point of commodity consumption, and the service industry consumption will continue to gradually recover with the easing of the epidemic. However, the spread of more contagious virus variants in the United States and overseas countries will also affect the recovery intensity of the subsequent service industry; Investment: Improvements in non-residential investments require attention to subsequent pandemic progress. Residential investment will decline with the gradual cooling of the real estate market; Private inventory movements may have to wait until the end of unemployment benefits in September to improve. Government spending and net exports: Government spending is expected to continue to contribute positively to GDP year-on-year until the fourth quarter. Net exports will return to normal levels as the supply-demand gap narrows later this year.</p><p><b>Global macro data</b></p><p><b>High Frequency Data This Week</b>: New orders for durable goods in the United States all rose year-on-year</p><p><b>Pandemic</b>: New confirmed cases in the U.S. declined.</p><p><b>Demand</b>: Japanese retail sales picked up sharply year-on-year.</p><p><b>Supply and Employment</b>: New orders for durable goods in the United States all rose year-on-year.</p><p><b>TRADE</b>: The imports and exports of the United States rose sharply year-on-year in March.</p><p><b>Inflation and Commodities</b>: Oil prices rose slightly.</p><p><b>REALTY</b>: The contracted sales index of existing homes in the United States rose in March.</p><p><b>Monetary Policy and Exchange Rates</b>: the US Dollar Index falls, gold prices stable.</p><p><b>Global Macro Calendar</b>: Watch US ISM Manufacturing PMI</p><p>text</p><p><b>1. Week's Viewpoint: Is the GDP of the United States strong or weak in the first quarter?</b></p><p><b>1.21Q1 U.S. GDP 0.4% YoY, slightly below market expectations</b></p><p>The GDP of the United States in 21Q1 was actually 0.4% year-on-year, turning positive year-on-year for the first time since the epidemic, and 1.6% month-on-month. The main contributing factors were commodity consumption, service consumption and non-residential investment, which showed a relatively rapid recovery of the US economy under the improvement of the epidemic situation and financial subsidies. The main drag items are private inventory changes and imports, and in fact, the GDP growth rate of the United States in the first quarter was slightly lower than the market expectation, indicating that the market has insufficient awareness of the slow production recovery caused by excessive financial subsidies in the United States, and its overly optimistic expectation of the improvement of the epidemic situation.</p><p><img src=\"http://img.zhitongcaijing.com/images/contentformat/867b3b31bf5a4410ca85884cf283ce1f.jpg\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"588\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><b>2. Resident consumption: subsidies promote commodity consumption, the epidemic eases and the service industry repairs</b></p><p>In 21Q1, financial subsidies of up to 2,000 USD/person stimulated commodity consumption; The easing of the pandemic promoted the recovery of service consumption, but it was slightly weaker than the optimistic expectation of overseas markets in the previous period. 1) From a quarterly perspective, the personal consumption expenditure of the United States in 21Q1 drove GDP by 1.1 percentage points year-on-year, a substantial improvement of 3 percentage points compared with 20Q4. It jumped from the biggest drag on GDP in the fourth quarter to the biggest contribution, showing that the first quarter had the stimulating effect of the subsidy of 600 USD in January and the subsidy of 1,400 USD issued in March on consumption, and the gradual release of service consumption under the easing of the epidemic. 2) From the perspective of monthly high frequency, PCE reached 8.5% year-on-year and 3.7% month-on-month in March, and strengthened again after a slight drop in the vacuum period of direct subsidies in February. Among them, the year-on-year growth rate of durable goods and service consumption increased again, reaching 43.3% and 4.8% respectively in March, while non-durable goods slowed down slightly (4.3%) year-on-year, showing that the subsidy payment of $1,400 in March had an immediate stimulating effect on consumption, and the recovery of service consumption under the relaxation of prevention and control measures. However, judging from the intensity of service consumption recovery, it is actually slightly weaker than the overly optimistic expectation of overseas markets in February-March.</p><p><img src=\"http://img.zhitongcaijing.com/images/contentformat/fb6a3cdada866cc05b11f3b44abb7b40.jpg\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"398\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>Commodity consumption and service consumption jointly drive the high increase of personal consumption expenditure. 1) Commodity consumption is mainly driven by durable goods. In 21Q1, commodity consumption increased by 3.2 percentage points to GDP, an improvement of 1.5 percentage points compared with 20Q4, mainly due to the high increase of durable goods under the fiscal stimulus in the first quarter. In 21Q1, the contribution of durable goods to GDP improved significantly by 1.3 percentage points compared with the fourth quarter, while the contribution of non-durable goods to GDP only improved slightly by 0.3 percentage points; 2) The improvement of service consumption on GDP is greater than that of durable goods consumption. In 21Q1, although service consumption still had a negative pull of-1.4% on GDP, it has significantly improved by 1.6 percentage points compared with the previous quarter, which is even more than that of durable goods consumption, showing that service consumption has greater flexibility to improve under the dual factors of financial subsidy + epidemic easing.</p><p><img src=\"http://img.zhitongcaijing.com/images/contentformat/e8b1b37f95a3c799e28a194bc63e56e7.jpg\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"399\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><b>3. Investment: Equipment investment improved significantly, interest rates inhibited real estate investment, and inventory replenishment did not appear</b></p><p>The effect of non-residential investment on GDP has greatly improved, and private inventory has turned into a drag. In 21Q1, domestic private investment drove GDP by 0.8 percentage points year-on-year, a slight improvement of 0.1 percentage points compared with the fourth quarter.</p><p>1) Improvement in non-residential investment shows that the U.S. production sector has improved its expectations for the economic outlook. The main contributor to the improvement in private investment was non-residential investment (0.6 percentage point improvement), mainly from equipment investment, indicating that manufacturing enterprises remain optimistic about the prospect of economic recovery.</p><p>2) The decline in the year-on-year contribution of private inventory changes to 21Q1 GDP is the manifestation of the tear of supply and demand in the US economy. Strong demand and slow production recovery lead to the decline of inventory, which means that the strength of commodity prices in Q1 cannot be supported by the logic of strong industrial production and active inventory replenishment in the US. The main drag on private investment was the movement of private inventories (0.4 percentage point drag).</p><p>3) The year-on-year contribution of residential investment to GDP remained basically stable, while the month-on-month growth rate was suppressed with the overall rise of US interest rate in the previous period. It is expected that the follow-up will continue to cool with the medium-term upward process of interest rates. In 21Q1, the pull of residential investment on GDP remained stable, but with the gradual increase of mortgage interest rates in the past 21 years, the U.S. real estate market has cooled down, and the expenditure on residential construction and sales of existing houses have slowed down. It is expected that the pull effect of subsequent residential investment on GDP will gradually decline.</p><p><img src=\"http://img.zhitongcaijing.com/images/contentformat/8831f8bd60fdfc9671df61b6e741faaa.jpg\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"393\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><b>4. Government spending and net exports: Subsidies boost government spending, and the widening gap between supply and demand leads to a high increase in imports</b></p><p>The tear of supply and demand in the U.S. economy has led to the deepening of the drag of net exports on GDP. In 21Q1, net exports dragged down GDP by 2 percentage points year-on-year, and the degree of drag widened by 0.7 percentage points compared with the previous 20Q4. 1) Exports were dragged down by 1 percentage point, but they have improved by 0.2 percentage points compared with the previous quarter, showing a slight recovery of industrial production in the United States, but the improvement of personal consumption expenditure by 3.0 percentage points is still dwarfed by comparison, which actually reflects the widening of supply and demand gap in 21Q1 under excessive financial subsidies in the United States; 2) In 21Q1, imports dragged down GDP by 1.0 percentage points year-on-year, and the degree of drag greatly expanded by 0.9 percentage points compared with the previous quarter. The direct consequence of the widening gap between supply and demand in the United States is the expansion of import scale.</p><p>Government expenditure in 21Q1 increased GDP by 0.1 percentage point year-on-year, mainly due to the issuance of direct subsidy checks for residents by the U.S. government to the banking system and the cost of purchasing vaccines.</p><p><img src=\"http://img.zhitongcaijing.com/images/contentformat/1e6d4ceb162a00ae93de51b3cf6bb71b.jpg\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"386\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><b>5. It is expected that the U.S. economic recovery will be at a high point in the second quarter, and pay attention to the follow-up progress of the epidemic</b></p><p>Looking ahead, we believe that the strength of future U.S. economic recovery depends on the vaccination process and the spread of COVID-19. Under the assumption that the epidemic situation in the United States continues to ease and the service industry is gradually recovering, it is expected that the second quarter will be the high point of recovery of the United States economy. However, the tear between supply and demand caused by excessive subsidies will continue until September, and the strength of the recovery of the United States economy during the year may not be as strong as the market expectations.</p><p>Personal consumption expenditure: 1) Although 21Q1 commodity consumption shows an extremely strong momentum, we expect the first quarter to be the high point of commodity consumption, and it will gradually decline with the subsidy ebb; 2) The consumption of the service industry will continue to recover gradually as the epidemic eases, but the global epidemic has rebounded since March, especially in European countries and emerging countries. At the same time, the spread of more contagious virus variants in the United States and overseas countries will also affect the recovery intensity of the subsequent service industry.</p><p>Investment: 1) The main driving force of the improvement of non-residential investment in 21Q1 is the expectation of economic improvement. From the current point of view, the global epidemic is the core factor determining the intensity of economic recovery, and it is necessary to pay attention to the follow-up epidemic progress; 2) Residential investment will decline with the gradual cooling of the real estate market; 3) The change of private inventory, that is, the intensity of inventory replenishment, will depend on whether the current situation of supply and demand tearing in the United States can be eased. From the current point of view, it will take until the unemployment subsidy ends in September before there will be a significant bridging trend at both ends of supply and demand in the United States, which will then drive inventory investment.</p><p>Government expenditure and net exports: 1) With the continuous payment of unemployment subsidies in the second and third quarters, government expenditure is expected to continue to make a positive contribution to GDP year-on-year before the fourth quarter, and if the U.S. Employment Plan or the American Family Plan can be implemented within the year, it will also boost the level of government expenditure; In terms of net exports, exports will depend on the progress of the recovery of industrial production in the United States. As mentioned above, they will not be boosted until the fourth quarter, while imports, on the contrary, will fall back to normal levels as the supply-demand gap narrows later this year.</p><p><img src=\"http://img.zhitongcaijing.com/images/contentformat/32e1b124c2e79173310a2a69f29f1ee7.jpg\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"547\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><b>2. Global macro data: New confirmed cases in the United States declined</b></p><p><b>1. Epidemic: New confirmed cases in the United States decline</b></p><p>New confirmed cases in the U.S. dropped this week. The number of newly confirmed cases in the United States dropped to more than 53,000 on average on 7 days. As of April 29th, the global COVID-19 epidemic has been diagnosed more than 150 million, with 3.14 million deaths and 120 million recoveries. This week (April 27th-April 30th), there were 220,000 and 9,000 newly confirmed cases in the United States and the United Kingdom respectively.</p><p>As of April 28, Israel has received the most COVID-19 vaccines per 100 people worldwide, reaching 121.1 shots per 100 people, 70.2 shots per 100 people in the United States and 70.9 shots per 100 people in the United Kingdom. As of April 28, Israel had the highest proportion of fully vaccinated people in the world, at 58.7%, while the United States and Britain had 29.3% and 20.7% respectively.</p><p><img src=\"http://img.zhitongcaijing.com/images/contentformat/887a942234cb8fe459a2f83e1d51371f.jpg\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"591\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><img src=\"http://img.zhitongcaijing.com/images/contentformat/62573bfd15fa133a1b4a5d4e236f878d.jpg\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"397\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><b>2. Demand: Japanese retail sales picked up sharply year-on-year</b></p><p>Both retail sales and wholesale sales in Japan rose sharply year-on-year. Japan's retail sales index in March was 5.3% year-on-year, of which retail textiles and apparel were 15.8% year-on-year, and the wholesale sales index in March was 1.0% year-on-year.</p><p><img src=\"http://img.zhitongcaijing.com/images/contentformat/a115423dbfa92a2b68fd1ddba7b7202c.jpg\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"432\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>South Korea's retail sales continued to grow year-on-year in March, and semi-durable goods consumption increased significantly. South Korea's retail sales in March increased by 3.5 percentage points to 13.5% year-on-year, of which the consumption of semi-durable goods grew the fastest, 35.5% year-on-year; Durable goods were 13.6% and non-durable goods were 6.5% year-on-year.</p><p><img src=\"http://img.zhitongcaijing.com/images/contentformat/660433692ab7c356ac6e92af5532c956.jpg\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"549\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><b>3. Supply and employment: New orders for durable goods in the United States all rose year-on-year</b></p><p>The inventory of durable goods in the United States increased, and the growth rate of new orders both increased year-on-year. U.S. durable goods inventories reached $431.84 billion in March, up 1.0% month-over-month and 1.7% year-over-year. New orders for durable goods in the United States rose 0.5% month-on-month in March and rose sharply by 25% year-on-year.</p><p><img src=\"http://img.zhitongcaijing.com/images/contentformat/00d167c28987b587b0353bdb22cabcb3.jpg\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"397\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>Japan's unemployment rate fell to 2.6% in March. Japan's unemployment rate fell 0.3 percentage points to 2.6% in March from the previous month. South Korea's industrial production index increased year-on-year, and the industry continued to rebound. South Korea's industrial production index rose 5.7% year-on-year and 0.8% month-on-month to 112.6 in March.</p><p><img src=\"http://img.zhitongcaijing.com/images/contentformat/3e518f69ea70eb9423bd2c4c0800a9d4.jpg\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"393\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>U.S. industrial materials production continues to rise. 1) As of the week of April 24th, the weekly crude steel output in the United States increased by 43.6% year-on-year, and the capacity utilization rate increased slightly by 0.4 percentage points from last week to 78.4%; 2) U.S. refinery operable capacity utilization rose 0.4 percentage points to 85.4% as of April 23.</p><p><img src=\"http://img.zhitongcaijing.com/images/contentformat/08378049f4011957a1ca13a61b5f7ee9.jpg\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"395\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>The number of initial claims for unemployment benefits in the United States fell slightly that week, and the number of continuing claims for unemployment benefits rose slightly. On the week of April 24th, the number of initial unemployment claims in the United States reached 553,000, down 13,000 from last week; In the week of April 17th, the number of people who continued to claim unemployment benefits reached 3.66 million, an increase of 9,000 from the previous month.</p><p><img src=\"http://img.zhitongcaijing.com/images/contentformat/50abaebb23322c65845134f36edf2eac.jpg\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"550\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><b>4. Trade: U.S. imports and exports both rose sharply year-on-year in March</b></p><p>U.S. imports and exports both rose sharply year-on-year in March. The growth rate of U.S. exports in March rose sharply by 16.5 percentage points from the previous month to 11.5%, while imports increased by 20.6% year-on-year. The U.S. goods trade balance in March was-$90.59 billion.</p><p><img src=\"http://img.zhitongcaijing.com/images/contentformat/b94fcaf0b73f26e0f7e86a9f8b746b80.jpg\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"549\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><b>5. Inflation and commodities: Oil prices edge up</b></p><p>EIA crude oil inventories rose by 9 million barrels in the week of April 28, and U.S. crude oil production fell slightly by 100,000 barrels per day to 10.9 million barrels per day. As of April 29th, the weekly average price of WTI crude oil rose to $63.2/barrel; The average weekly price of Brent oil rose to $66.6/barrel.</p><p><img src=\"http://img.zhitongcaijing.com/images/contentformat/2ea9504a69c4ccccc0e74ff1a56da96e.jpg\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"396\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><img src=\"http://img.zhitongcaijing.com/images/contentformat/e2a42a869453a51bf63a352119f75e6a.jpg\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"402\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><b>6. Real estate: U.S. existing home contracted sales index rose year-on-year in March</b></p><p>The U.S. S&P/CS house price index rose for eight consecutive months in February. In February, the U.S. S&P/CS house price index rose by 11.9% year-on-year to 246.0, rising for eight consecutive months. The contracted sales index of existing homes in the United States in March was 23.3% year-on-year and 1.9% month-on-month.</p><p><img src=\"http://img.zhitongcaijing.com/images/contentformat/6ac3751240b8a02c34f4c66d93fb255b.jpg\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"398\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>Japan's new housing construction and construction orders rose sharply in March. In March, the construction of new houses in Japan started by 1.5% year-on-year and 18.1% month-on-month, and the number of construction orders in March was 12.5% year-on-year and 192.7% month-on-month, the highest increase in nearly a year.</p><p><img src=\"http://img.zhitongcaijing.com/images/contentformat/e961519800be12d5e185f10acff56a58.jpg\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"392\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>U.S. 5-year mortgage rates have fallen and 15-year, 30-year mortgage rates have risen. For the week ending April 29, 5-year mortgage rates fell 0.2 percentage points to 2.6%, while 15-year and 30-year mortgage rates rose to 2.3% and 3.0%, respectively. In the week ending April 23rd, the US MBA market index fell by 18.2 to 706.6, and the heat of the housing market dropped slightly.</p><p><img src=\"http://img.zhitongcaijing.com/images/contentformat/2eb2b206b830b79a11aed2265d986bec.jpg\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"395\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><b>7. Monetary policy and exchange rate: the US Dollar Index falls, gold prices are basically stable</b></p><p>This week, the Federal Reserve's interest rate meeting was held, Powell's speech was pigeon, the the US Dollar Index fell, and the gold price was basically stable. On April 28th, local time, the Federal Reserve announced the statement of the interest rate meeting. Powell said at the press conference after the meeting that it will still take some time to see substantial progress. Before that, the current scale of asset purchases will be maintained. It is not time to discuss Taper yet, and the the US Dollar Index continues to decline. As of April 29th, the US Dollar Index closed at 90.6140, down 0.7% from last week; The exchange rate of the euro and the pound against the US dollar (the exchange rate data of the pound as of the 28th) closed at 1.2129 and 1.3906 respectively, appreciating by 0.7% and depreciating by 0.2% respectively compared with last week; As the Bank of Canada led Taper, the Canadian dollar strengthened, closing at 1.2292, an appreciation of 1.7% from last week. This week, the average weekly price of gold in London was USD 1,774.8/oz, which was basically stable compared with last week, and the year-on-year increase decreased by 1.2pct to 3.6% compared with last week.</p><p><img src=\"http://img.zhitongcaijing.com/images/contentformat/c2e4e8d549f84a56f7d651806cc3a657.jpg\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"398\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><img src=\"http://img.zhitongcaijing.com/images/contentformat/09b461fbeb60aed3abf2e7ffd691b486.jpg\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"551\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> source：<a href=\"http://www.zhitongcaijing.com/content/detail/466474.html\">智通财经网</a></p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://img.zhitongcaijing.com/image/20210501/20210501134714_46528.png?x-oss-process=image/format,jpg/quality,Q_80/resize,w_250","relate_stocks":{".DJI":"道琼斯"},"source_url":"http://www.zhitongcaijing.com/content/detail/466474.html","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/6ca2dcdccfa2217fb20a0351f4efe814","article_id":"2132567538","content_text":"本文来自“申万宏源宏观”。摘要一、周观点：美国一季度GDP究竟是偏强还是偏弱?21Q1美国GDP同比0.4%，略低于市场预期。美国21Q1  GDP实际同比0.4%，疫情以来首次同比转正，环比1.6%。主要贡献因素为商品消费、服务消费、非住宅投资，显示出疫情改善+财政补贴下美国经济快速复苏。但主要拖累项为私人存货变动及进口，且实际上，美国一季度GDP增速是小幅低于市场预期的，显示市场对美国过度财政补贴导致生产恢复缓慢的认识不足，以及对疫情改善过度乐观的预期。居民消费：补贴推动商品消费，疫情缓和服务业修复。1)21Q1美国个人消费支出拉动GDP同比1.1个百分点，较20Q4大幅改善3个百分点。商品消费主要为耐用品推动，而服务消费对GDP拉动的改善幅度大于耐用品消费;2)月度高频角度，3月PCE同比8.5%，环比3.7%，在2月直接补贴真空期小幅回落后再度走强。显示3月1400美金补贴发放对于消费立竿见影的刺激效果，以及防控措施放松下服务消费的恢复。但从服务消费恢复的强度来看，实际上略弱于2-3月海外市场的过度乐观预期。投资：设备投资改善显著，利率抑制地产投资，补库存并未出现。21Q1国内私人投资拉动GDP同比0.8个百分点，较4季度小幅改善0.1个百分点。1)非住宅投资改善显示美国生产部门对经济前景预期有所改善;2)私人存货变动对21Q1  GDP同比贡献的下降是美国经济供需撕裂的体现，需求旺盛而生产恢复缓慢，从而导致库存下降，这也就意味着Q1大宗商品价格的走强并不能得到美国工业生产强劲、主动补库存逻辑的支持;3)住宅投资对GDP同比贡献基本保持稳定，环比增速则随前期美国利率的整体抬升而受到抑制。后续预计将随着利率的中期上行过程而持续降温。政府支出和净出口：补贴推动政府支出增加，供需缺口拉大导致进口高增。美国经济供需撕裂导致净出口对GDP拖累程度再度加深。21Q1净出口拖累GDP同比2个百分点，拖累程度较上20Q4扩大0.7个百分点。政府支出21Q1对GDP同比拉动0.1个百分点，主要由于美国政府向银行体系发放针对居民的直接补贴支票以及购买疫苗费用。预计美国经济复苏2季度为高点，关注疫情后续进展。我们认为未来美国经济恢复的强度依赖于疫苗接种进程，以及新冠疫情的扩散情况。在美国疫情持续缓和、服务业渐进修复的假设下，预计2季度为美国经济恢复高点，但由于过度补贴导致的供需撕裂情况将持续到9月份，年内美国经济恢复的强度或将不会如市场预期一般强劲。个人消费支出：预计1季度是商品消费高点，服务业消费将继续随着疫情缓和而渐进式恢复，但美国本土及海外国家传染性更强的病毒变种的传播也将影响后续服务业恢复强度;投资：非住宅投资的改善需要关注后续疫情进展。住宅投资将随着地产市场的逐步降温而走低;私人库存变动或要等到9月失业补贴结束之后得以改善。政府支出和净出口：政府支出预计将在4季度前持续对GDP同比形成正贡献。净出口将随着今年后期供需缺口的收窄而回到正常水平。二、全球宏观数据本周高频数据：美国耐用品新订单同环比均上升疫情：美国新增确诊病例下降。需求：日本零售销售同比大幅回升。供给与就业：美国耐用品新订单同环比均上升。贸易：美国3月进出口同比均大幅上升。通胀和大宗商品：油价小幅上行。房地产：美3月成屋签约销售指数上升。货币政策和汇率：美元指数下跌，黄金价格稳定。全球宏观日历：关注美国ISM制造业PMI正文一、周观点：美国一季度GDP究竟是偏强还是偏弱?1.21Q1美国GDP同比0.4%，略低于市场预期美国21Q1GDP实际同比0.4%，疫情以来首次同比转正，环比1.6%。主要贡献因素为商品消费、服务消费、非住宅投资，显示出疫情改善+财政补贴下美国经济相对较快的复苏。主要拖累项为私人存货变动及进口，且实际上，美国一季度GDP增速是小幅低于市场预期的，显示市场对美国过度财政补贴导致生产恢复缓慢的认识不足，以及对疫情改善过度乐观的预期。2.居民消费：补贴推动商品消费，疫情缓和服务业修复21Q1高达2000美金/人的财政补贴拉动商品消费;疫情缓和推动服务消费恢复，但略弱于前期海外市场乐观预期。1)从季度角度看，21Q1美国个人消费支出拉动GDP同比1.1个百分点，较20Q4大幅改善3个百分点，从4季度对GDP最大的拖累项一跃转为最大的贡献项，显示一季度同时具备1月600美金补贴以及3月开始发放的1400美金补贴对消费的刺激效果，以及疫情缓和下服务消费的渐次释放。2)而从月度高频角度，3月PCE同比达到8.5%，环比3.7%，在2月直接补贴真空期小幅回落后再度走强。其中，耐用品、服务消费同比增速再度提升，3月分别达到43.3%和4.8%，而非耐用品同比略有放缓(4.3%)，显示3月1400美金补贴发放对于消费立竿见影的刺激效果，以及防控措施放松下服务消费的恢复。但从服务消费恢复的强度来看，实际上略弱于2-3月海外市场的过度乐观预期。商品消费、服务消费共同驱动个人消费支出高增。1)商品消费主要为耐用品推动。21Q1商品消费对GDP拉动3.2个百分点，较20Q4改善1.5个百分点，主要归功于耐用品在一季度财政刺激下再度高增，21Q1耐用品对GDP贡献度较4季度大幅改善1.3个百分点，而非耐用品对GDP贡献度仅小幅改善0.3个百分点;2)服务消费对GDP拉动效果的改善幅度大于耐用品消费。21Q1服务消费对GDP虽然仍为-1.4%的负拉动，但已较上季度大幅改善1.6个百分点，改善幅度更甚于耐用品消费，显示出服务消费在财政补贴+疫情缓和双重因素下改善的弹性更大。3.投资：设备投资改善显著，利率抑制地产投资，补库存并未出现非住宅投资对GDP拉动效果大幅改善，私人存货转为拖累。21Q1国内私人投资拉动GDP同比0.8个百分点，较4季度小幅改善0.1个百分点。1)非住宅投资改善显示美国生产部门对经济前景预期有所改善。私人投资改善的主要贡献因素为非住宅投资(改善0.6个百分点)，其中主要来自于设备投资，显示制造业企业对经济恢复前景保持乐观。2)私人存货变动对21Q1  GDP同比贡献的下降是美国经济供需撕裂的体现，需求旺盛而生产恢复缓慢，从而导致库存下降，这也就意味着Q1大宗商品价格的走强并不能得到美国工业生产强劲、主动补库存逻辑的支持。拖累私人投资的主要因素为私人存货变动(拖累0.4个百分点)。3)住宅投资对GDP同比贡献基本保持稳定，环比增速则随前期美国利率的整体抬升而受到抑制。后续预计将随着利率的中期上行过程而持续降温。21Q1住宅投资对GDP的拉动保持稳定，但随着21年以来抵押贷款利率的逐步上行，美国房地产市场已经有所降温，住宅营建支出、成屋销售已经有所放缓，预计后续住宅投资对GDP的拉动效果将逐步下降。4.政府支出和净出口：补贴推动政府支出增加，供需缺口拉大导致进口高增美国经济供需撕裂导致净出口对GDP拖累程度再度加深。21Q1净出口拖累GDP同比2个百分点，拖累程度较上20Q4扩大0.7个百分点。1)出口拖累1个百分点，但已较上个季度改善0.2个百分点，显示美国工业生产的小幅恢复，但相比个人消费支出3.0个百分点的改善幅度仍然相形见绌，实际体现的是美国过度财政补贴下21Q1供需缺口的拉大;2)而进口在21Q1拖累GDP同比1.0个百分点，拖累程度较上季度大幅扩大0.9个百分点，美国供需缺口拉大的直接后果便是进口规模的扩大。政府支出21Q1对GDP同比拉动0.1个百分点，主要由于美国政府向银行体系发放针对居民的直接补贴支票以及购买疫苗费用。5.预计美国经济复苏2季度为高点，关注疫情后续进展展望未来，我们认为未来美国经济恢复的强度依赖于疫苗接种进程，以及新冠疫情的扩散情况。在美国疫情持续缓和、服务业渐进修复的假设下，预计2季度为美国经济恢复高点，但由于过度补贴导致的供需撕裂情况将持续到9月份，年内美国经济恢复的强度或将不会如市场预期一般强劲。个人消费支出：1)虽然21Q1商品消费显示出极为强劲的势头，但我们预计1季度已经是商品消费高点，后续将随着补贴退潮而逐步回落;2)服务业消费将继续随着疫情缓和而渐进式恢复，但3月以来全球疫情有所反弹，特别是在欧洲国家以及新兴国家，同时美国本土及海外国家传染性更强的病毒变种的传播也将影响后续服务业恢复强度。投资：1)21Q1非住宅投资的改善主要驱动力为经济向好预期，而从当前时点来看，全球疫情是决定经济恢复强度的核心因素，需要关注后续疫情进展;2)住宅投资将随着地产市场的逐步降温而走低;3)私人库存变动，即补库存的力度将依赖于美国供需撕裂的现状是否能够缓和，从当前来看，或要等到9月失业补贴结束之后，美国供需两端才能出现显著的弥合趋势，进而带动库存投资。政府支出和净出口：1)随着失业补贴在2、3季度的持续发放，政府支出预计将在4季度前持续对GDP同比形成正贡献，而如果美国就业计划或美国家庭计划能够在年内落地，也将提振政府支出水平;净出口方面，出口将依赖于美国工业生产恢复的进度，如上文所说，或要到4季度才能得到提振，进口则恰恰相反，将随着今年后期供需缺口的收窄而回落到正常水平。二、全球宏观数据：美国新增确诊病例下降1.疫情：美国新增确诊病例下降本周美国新增确诊病例下降。美国新增确诊7日平均下降至5.3万人以上。截止4月29日，全球新冠疫情累计确诊超过1.5亿，累计死亡病例314万人，累计康复病例1.2亿人。本周四天(4月27日-4月30日)美国、英国分别新增确诊病例22万人和0.9万人。截止4月28日，全球范围内平均每百人接种新冠疫苗最多的是以色列，达每百人121.1针，美国每百人70.2针，英国每百人70.9针。截止4月28日，全球范围内完全接种疫苗的人占人口比例最高的是以色列，达58.7%，美国、英国分别为29.3%、20.7%。2.需求：日本零售销售同比大幅回升日本零售销售和批发销售同比均大幅上行。日本3月零售销售指数同比5.3%，其中零售中纺织服装同比15.8%，3月批发销售指数同比1.0%。韩国3月零售销售同比持续增长，半耐用品消费大幅增长。韩国3月零售销售同比较上月上升3.5个百分点至13.5%，其中半耐用品消费增速最快，同比35.5%;耐用品同比13.6%，非耐用品同比6.5%。3.供给与就业：美国耐用品新订单同环比均上升美国耐用品库存上升，新订单增速同环比均上升。3月美国耐用品库存达4318.4亿美元，环比上升1.0%，同比增长1.7%。美国3月耐用品新订单环比上升0.5%，同比大幅上升25%。日本3月失业率下降至2.6%。3月日本失业率较上月下降0.3个百分点至2.6%。韩国工业生产指数同环比均上升，工业持续回升。韩国3月工业生产指数同比上升5.7%，环比上升0.8%至112.6。美国工业材料生产持续上升。1)截止4月24日当周，美国周度粗钢产量同比上升43.6%，产能利用率较上周小幅上升0.4个百分点至78.4%;2)截止4月23日，美国炼油厂可运营能力利用率上升0.4个百分点至85.4%。美国当周初请失业金人数小幅下降，持续申领失业金人数小幅上升。4月24日当周美国初请失业金人数达55.3万人，环比上周下降1.3万人;4月17日当周持续申领失业金人数达366万人，环比上升0.9万人。4.贸易：美国3月进出口同比均大幅上升美国3月进出口同比均大幅上升。美国3月出口增速较上月大幅上升16.5个百分点至11.5%，进口同比20.6%。美国3月份商品贸易差额为-905.9亿美元。5.通胀和大宗商品：油价小幅上行4月28日当周EIA原油库存上升900万桶，美国原油产量小幅下降10万桶/日至1090万桶/日。截止4月29日，WTI原油周均价上升至63.2美元/桶;布油周均价上升至66.6美元/桶。6.房地产：美国3月成屋签约销售指数同比上升美国2月标普/CS房价指数连续8个月上涨。2月美国标普/CS房价指数同比上升11.9%至246.0，连续8个月上涨。美国3月成屋签约销售指数同比大幅23.3%，环比1.9%。日本3月新屋开工、营建订单大幅上行。日本3月新屋开工同比1.5%，环比18.1%，3月营建订单数同比12.5%，环比192.7%，涨幅达到近一年最高。美国5年期抵押贷款利率下降，15年期、30年期抵押贷款利率上升。截止4月29日当周，5年期抵押贷款利率下降0.2个百分点至2.6%，15年期、30年期抵押贷款利率分别上升至2.3%和3.0%。截止4月23日当周，美国MBA市场指数下降18.2至706.6，房市热度小幅回落。7.货币政策和汇率：美元指数下跌，黄金价格基本稳定本周美联储议息会议召开，鲍威尔发言偏鸽，美元指数下跌，黄金价格基本稳定。当地时间4月28日，美联储公布议息会议声明，鲍威尔在会后新闻发布会上表示看到实质性进展仍需一些时间，在此之前会维持当前的资产购买规模，现在还未到讨论Taper的时间，美元指数持续下行。截至4月29日，美元指数报收90.6140，较上周下行0.7%;欧元、英镑兑美元汇率(英镑汇率数据截至28日)分别报收1.2129、1.3906，分别较上周升值0.7%、贬值0.2%;由于加拿大央行率先Taper，加元走强，报收1.2292，较上周升值1.7%。本周伦敦金周均价1774.8美元/盎司，较上周基本稳定，同比涨幅较上周下行1.2pct至3.6%。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"ZNmain":0.9,"UBmain":0.9,"ZBmain":0.9,"ZTmain":0.9,"ZFmain":0.9,".DJI":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1806,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":101197072,"gmtCreate":1619856491896,"gmtModify":1704335809145,"author":{"id":"3573688531814941","authorId":"3573688531814941","name":"ccssyy","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/788037228f49cc166fdc5223f0073775","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3573688531814941","authorIdStr":"3573688531814941"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"?&nbsp;","listText":"?&nbsp;","text":"?","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/101197072","repostId":"2131556829","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1588,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0}],"hots":[{"id":168125845,"gmtCreate":1623967496187,"gmtModify":1703824727038,"author":{"id":"3573688531814941","authorId":"3573688531814941","name":"ccssyy","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/788037228f49cc166fdc5223f0073775","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3573688531814941","idStr":"3573688531814941"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"？","listText":"？","text":"？","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":4,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/168125845","repostId":"1111690771","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1111690771","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1623935139,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1111690771?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2021-06-17 21:05","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"Hawkish Signal! The Federal Reserve gradually changes its face. How will the property market and the stock market be corrected?","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1111690771","media":"杠杆游戏","summary":"全球瞩目，美国是否加息，何时加息？\n当地时间6月16日，美联储发布经济预测和政策声明。美联储分别上调了对2021年的美国经济及通胀预期，而一同公布的点阵图则显示，有超过半数的FOMC委员给出了提前加息","content":"<p>Global attention, is the United States rate hike, when rate hike?</p><p>On June 16th, local time, the Federal Reserve issued an economic forecast and policy statement. The Federal Reserve raised its expectations for the U.S. economy and inflation in 2021 respectively, and the dot plot published together showed that more than half of FOMC members gave expectations of early rate hike, and the median forecast suggested that the Federal Reserve would hold two rate hike before 2023.</p><p>Interest rates may rise from 0.1% to 0.6%.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d41cae1274b855b1881c45df621f92f1\" tg-width=\"650\" tg-height=\"248\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>Generally speaking, the Fed's concerns about prices have increased, and hawkish signals are beginning to appear. What impact will this have on China's stock market and property market? According to the details of this interest rate meeting, the leverage game will talk about it.</p><p><b>1. The hawkish turn signal deserves attention!</b></p><p>Thirteen of the 18 commissioners supported at least one rate hike by the end of 2023. The Federal Reserve is more confident in the U.S. economy. They believe that the U.S. GDP will grow by 7.0% in 2021, compared with the forecast of 6.5% at the March meeting.</p><p>The Fed also raised its real GDP forecast for 2023 to 2.4% from the 2.2% it previously expected. With the better economic recovery, the problems of price and monetary policy naturally come.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/66259bd1ce43d9289e0638c6cb914df7\" tg-width=\"650\" tg-height=\"257\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>Huatai Futures made a statistic, and the leverage game felt very meaningful, and thanked it.</p><p>The dot plot of the rate hike path of Fed officials shows that by the end of 2023, the Fed may rate hike twice.</p><p>The June dot plot of the FOMC (the Federal Reserve's open market committee) showed that 13 of the 18 commissioners supported at least one rate hike by the end of 2023, compared with seven in March.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/13dc861d49dae295f65371658fe551af\" tg-width=\"528\" tg-height=\"540\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>Chart Source |<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/000686\">Northeast Securities</a>(Thank you hereby)</p><p>Eleven commissioners expect at least two rate hike by the end of 2023, and seven commissioners expect to begin a rate hike in 2022. 4 in March.</p><p>And the median prediction of the dotplot in March implies that there will be no rate hike until the end of 2023.</p><p><b>2. Federal Reserve Chairman Powell generally believes that it is too early to discuss rate hike. Why is the key?</b></p><p>Of course, the Federal Reserve is prepared to adjust the excess reserve rate (IOER) from 0.1% to 0.15%. That is to say, in the face of excess liquidity, the Federal Reserve is actually making appropriate moves.</p><p>Making it clear, though, that it will continue to increase its holdings of at least $80 billion a month in Treasury Bond, as well as at least $40 billion in home mortgage-backed securities, until substantial progress is made on full employment and price stability targets.</p><p>Here, the leverage game needs one more word. What counts as the goal of full employment and price stability?</p><p>For example, the number of new non-farm payrolls in the United States in April and May was 278,000 and 559,000 respectively, both lower than expected. Employment still fell by about 7.6 million in May compared with pre-Black Swan levels.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8c8c7ecd06543dcd0ded387b77673869\" tg-width=\"832\" tg-height=\"343\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>Source of chart | Northeast Securities (thank you)</p><p>The Fed expects the unemployment rate to drop to 4.5% in 2021 (the same as its March forecast) and 3.8% and 3.5% in 2022 and 2023, respectively – by this point, back to very low levels, presumably qualified;</p><p>At the same time, Powell believes that inflation may remain high in the coming months before it eases-price indicators should be considered up to standard.</p><p>So, my conclusion is that Americans care about the economy, simply employment indicators.</p><p><b>3. The normalization of U.S. monetary policy may be accelerated, which deserves attention, but the stock market should be worry-free for the time being.</b></p><p>Judging from the above changes in the attitude of Fed members towards rate hike, the leverage game can basically be considered that the pace of rate hike has been greatly accelerated compared with before.</p><p>While there is no signal from rate hike yet, an early arrival is possible. At the same time, Powell is ready to discuss reducing bond purchases, and the hawks are undoubtedly revealed. Then the US dollar will be supported in the short term, and the RMB exchange rate will fluctuate mainly.</p><p>However, because the liquidity between China and the United States is generally loose. For example, our M2 was 227.54 trillion yuan at the end of May, a year-on-year increase of 8.3%, and the growth rate was 0.2 percentage points higher than that at the end of last month.</p><p>At the same time, the communication between the central banks of China and the United States and the market is relatively sufficient and transparent, and no one will suddenly turn monetary policy.</p><p>Therefore, the stock market will not panic overall, and the trend decline will not appear.</p><p><b>4. Domestic demand is still a little weak, and external demand supports high production prosperity. Real estate and investment should not be too cool at this time.</b></p><p>June 16th is a very interesting day. The United States informed some of their statements at the interest rate meeting, and we released a number of economic indicators.</p><p>We can see that industrial production has actually weakened slightly, and external demand is still an important support.</p><p>According to the statistics of Beijing Capital Securities, for example, in May, the two-year average growth rate of industrial added value above the regulated level was 6.6%, slightly lower than the previous value by 0.2 percentage points.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d083afd587e6aa1242d24c96c4ad505e\" tg-width=\"477\" tg-height=\"545\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>Chart source | Capital Securities (thank you)</p><p>The compound growth rate of export delivery value has dropped significantly, echoing the sharp decline of exports in May. However, without the high growth of exports, industrial data will decline even more.</p><p>Generally speaking, external demand has peaked and fallen, and it is certain that production and exports will have a slight impact in the next step.</p><p>In terms of fixed investment, it increased by 15.4% year-on-year. However, the newly started area of houses has experienced negative growth for two consecutive months, and the completed area has accelerated significantly this month, turning positive to 5.0% year-on-year. In the short term, real estate investment is still supported, and there is certain pressure in the long term.</p><p>At the same time, with the strengthening of debt management, there is a high probability that fixed investment will fall back.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/140e47518613dba5d257d583f1f9f4ec\" tg-width=\"554\" tg-height=\"298\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>Social retail sales rose 12.4% in May, slightly below market expectations of 12.8%, compared with the previous value of 17.7%.</p><p>Generally speaking, the leverage game believes that domestic demand is so-so and exports are peaking. Then, the real estate suppression is suppressed and can't be made too ugly.</p><p><b>5. Whether there is a liquidity inflection point in the United States in the third quarter is worth noting.</b></p><p>Regardless of global house prices, commodities, and the U.S. stock market, the nature of this round of asset price surge is dominated by liquidity.</p><p>Now the question is, is there an inflection point in U.S. liquidity in the third quarter? As written in the above leverage game, the Federal Reserve has a signal of shrinking, and the excess reserve rate has increased slightly.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c6a294dbe7d55d78d322cf321fc22590\" tg-width=\"556\" tg-height=\"431\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>Chart Source |<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/601878\">Zheshang Securities</a>(Thank you hereby)</p><p>In the third quarter, the leverage game believes that the first amplitude is small, and the second is a temptation. At the same time, the last round of cards by the central bank of China has proved that \"I am the main\"-as long as the United States does not have rate hike, the world trend of funds returning to the United States to pursue high yields should not come.</p><p>From this perspective alone, in 2021, China's stock market will not be bearish; The property market only shows an unusually harsh attitude towards speculation. As mentioned above, the stability of the economy still needs it.</p><p>It should be noted that in the third quarter, such as July and August, the Federal Reserve began to formally discuss cutting QE, and began to cut QE at the end of 2021 or early 2022, which were basically within market expectations.</p><p>Nevertheless, this is at least a constraint on any country's monetary policy.</p><p><b>6. Conclusion: In 2021, the stock market will basically not be affected by the United States, and the property market will be dominated by me.</b>The former leverage game means, don't worry about liquidity.</p><p>The latter I mean, the property market will crack down on speculation, and it will run through 2021. However, local governments are becoming more and more skilled in their ability to trade the property market, and they have always had their own ways to guarantee a certain price and sales volume.</p><p>What's more, the water hasn't decreased.</p>","source":"lsy1574902984297","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Hawkish Signal! The Federal Reserve gradually changes its face. 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The Federal Reserve gradually changes its face. How will the property market and the stock market be corrected?\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">杠杆游戏</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-06-17 21:05</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>Global attention, is the United States rate hike, when rate hike?</p><p>On June 16th, local time, the Federal Reserve issued an economic forecast and policy statement. The Federal Reserve raised its expectations for the U.S. economy and inflation in 2021 respectively, and the dot plot published together showed that more than half of FOMC members gave expectations of early rate hike, and the median forecast suggested that the Federal Reserve would hold two rate hike before 2023.</p><p>Interest rates may rise from 0.1% to 0.6%.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d41cae1274b855b1881c45df621f92f1\" tg-width=\"650\" tg-height=\"248\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>Generally speaking, the Fed's concerns about prices have increased, and hawkish signals are beginning to appear. What impact will this have on China's stock market and property market? According to the details of this interest rate meeting, the leverage game will talk about it.</p><p><b>1. The hawkish turn signal deserves attention!</b></p><p>Thirteen of the 18 commissioners supported at least one rate hike by the end of 2023. The Federal Reserve is more confident in the U.S. economy. They believe that the U.S. GDP will grow by 7.0% in 2021, compared with the forecast of 6.5% at the March meeting.</p><p>The Fed also raised its real GDP forecast for 2023 to 2.4% from the 2.2% it previously expected. With the better economic recovery, the problems of price and monetary policy naturally come.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/66259bd1ce43d9289e0638c6cb914df7\" tg-width=\"650\" tg-height=\"257\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>Huatai Futures made a statistic, and the leverage game felt very meaningful, and thanked it.</p><p>The dot plot of the rate hike path of Fed officials shows that by the end of 2023, the Fed may rate hike twice.</p><p>The June dot plot of the FOMC (the Federal Reserve's open market committee) showed that 13 of the 18 commissioners supported at least one rate hike by the end of 2023, compared with seven in March.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/13dc861d49dae295f65371658fe551af\" tg-width=\"528\" tg-height=\"540\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>Chart Source |<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/000686\">Northeast Securities</a>(Thank you hereby)</p><p>Eleven commissioners expect at least two rate hike by the end of 2023, and seven commissioners expect to begin a rate hike in 2022. 4 in March.</p><p>And the median prediction of the dotplot in March implies that there will be no rate hike until the end of 2023.</p><p><b>2. Federal Reserve Chairman Powell generally believes that it is too early to discuss rate hike. Why is the key?</b></p><p>Of course, the Federal Reserve is prepared to adjust the excess reserve rate (IOER) from 0.1% to 0.15%. That is to say, in the face of excess liquidity, the Federal Reserve is actually making appropriate moves.</p><p>Making it clear, though, that it will continue to increase its holdings of at least $80 billion a month in Treasury Bond, as well as at least $40 billion in home mortgage-backed securities, until substantial progress is made on full employment and price stability targets.</p><p>Here, the leverage game needs one more word. What counts as the goal of full employment and price stability?</p><p>For example, the number of new non-farm payrolls in the United States in April and May was 278,000 and 559,000 respectively, both lower than expected. Employment still fell by about 7.6 million in May compared with pre-Black Swan levels.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8c8c7ecd06543dcd0ded387b77673869\" tg-width=\"832\" tg-height=\"343\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>Source of chart | Northeast Securities (thank you)</p><p>The Fed expects the unemployment rate to drop to 4.5% in 2021 (the same as its March forecast) and 3.8% and 3.5% in 2022 and 2023, respectively – by this point, back to very low levels, presumably qualified;</p><p>At the same time, Powell believes that inflation may remain high in the coming months before it eases-price indicators should be considered up to standard.</p><p>So, my conclusion is that Americans care about the economy, simply employment indicators.</p><p><b>3. The normalization of U.S. monetary policy may be accelerated, which deserves attention, but the stock market should be worry-free for the time being.</b></p><p>Judging from the above changes in the attitude of Fed members towards rate hike, the leverage game can basically be considered that the pace of rate hike has been greatly accelerated compared with before.</p><p>While there is no signal from rate hike yet, an early arrival is possible. At the same time, Powell is ready to discuss reducing bond purchases, and the hawks are undoubtedly revealed. Then the US dollar will be supported in the short term, and the RMB exchange rate will fluctuate mainly.</p><p>However, because the liquidity between China and the United States is generally loose. For example, our M2 was 227.54 trillion yuan at the end of May, a year-on-year increase of 8.3%, and the growth rate was 0.2 percentage points higher than that at the end of last month.</p><p>At the same time, the communication between the central banks of China and the United States and the market is relatively sufficient and transparent, and no one will suddenly turn monetary policy.</p><p>Therefore, the stock market will not panic overall, and the trend decline will not appear.</p><p><b>4. Domestic demand is still a little weak, and external demand supports high production prosperity. Real estate and investment should not be too cool at this time.</b></p><p>June 16th is a very interesting day. The United States informed some of their statements at the interest rate meeting, and we released a number of economic indicators.</p><p>We can see that industrial production has actually weakened slightly, and external demand is still an important support.</p><p>According to the statistics of Beijing Capital Securities, for example, in May, the two-year average growth rate of industrial added value above the regulated level was 6.6%, slightly lower than the previous value by 0.2 percentage points.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d083afd587e6aa1242d24c96c4ad505e\" tg-width=\"477\" tg-height=\"545\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>Chart source | Capital Securities (thank you)</p><p>The compound growth rate of export delivery value has dropped significantly, echoing the sharp decline of exports in May. However, without the high growth of exports, industrial data will decline even more.</p><p>Generally speaking, external demand has peaked and fallen, and it is certain that production and exports will have a slight impact in the next step.</p><p>In terms of fixed investment, it increased by 15.4% year-on-year. However, the newly started area of houses has experienced negative growth for two consecutive months, and the completed area has accelerated significantly this month, turning positive to 5.0% year-on-year. In the short term, real estate investment is still supported, and there is certain pressure in the long term.</p><p>At the same time, with the strengthening of debt management, there is a high probability that fixed investment will fall back.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/140e47518613dba5d257d583f1f9f4ec\" tg-width=\"554\" tg-height=\"298\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>Social retail sales rose 12.4% in May, slightly below market expectations of 12.8%, compared with the previous value of 17.7%.</p><p>Generally speaking, the leverage game believes that domestic demand is so-so and exports are peaking. Then, the real estate suppression is suppressed and can't be made too ugly.</p><p><b>5. Whether there is a liquidity inflection point in the United States in the third quarter is worth noting.</b></p><p>Regardless of global house prices, commodities, and the U.S. stock market, the nature of this round of asset price surge is dominated by liquidity.</p><p>Now the question is, is there an inflection point in U.S. liquidity in the third quarter? As written in the above leverage game, the Federal Reserve has a signal of shrinking, and the excess reserve rate has increased slightly.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c6a294dbe7d55d78d322cf321fc22590\" tg-width=\"556\" tg-height=\"431\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>Chart Source |<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/601878\">Zheshang Securities</a>(Thank you hereby)</p><p>In the third quarter, the leverage game believes that the first amplitude is small, and the second is a temptation. At the same time, the last round of cards by the central bank of China has proved that \"I am the main\"-as long as the United States does not have rate hike, the world trend of funds returning to the United States to pursue high yields should not come.</p><p>From this perspective alone, in 2021, China's stock market will not be bearish; The property market only shows an unusually harsh attitude towards speculation. As mentioned above, the stability of the economy still needs it.</p><p>It should be noted that in the third quarter, such as July and August, the Federal Reserve began to formally discuss cutting QE, and began to cut QE at the end of 2021 or early 2022, which were basically within market expectations.</p><p>Nevertheless, this is at least a constraint on any country's monetary policy.</p><p><b>6. Conclusion: In 2021, the stock market will basically not be affected by the United States, and the property market will be dominated by me.</b>The former leverage game means, don't worry about liquidity.</p><p>The latter I mean, the property market will crack down on speculation, and it will run through 2021. However, local governments are becoming more and more skilled in their ability to trade the property market, and they have always had their own ways to guarantee a certain price and sales volume.</p><p>What's more, the water hasn't decreased.</p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> source：<a href=\"https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s/yTYYzzbQ08ymsKDOuBB5dw\">杠杆游戏</a></p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f09c44f289c2f0d40610768fe6661fab","relate_stocks":{"513500":"标普500ETF博时","QID":"两倍做空纳斯达克指数ETF-ProShares","OEX":"标普100","UDOW":"三倍做多道指30ETF-ProShares","DOG":"道指ETF-ProShares做空",".DJI":"道琼斯","SDS":"两倍做空标普500 ETF-ProShares","IVV":"标普500ETF-iShares","TQQQ":"纳指三倍做多ETF","SDOW":"三倍做空道指30ETF-ProShares",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite","QQQ":"纳指100ETF","SPY":"标普500ETF","OEF":"标普100指数ETF-iShares","QLD":"2倍做多纳斯达克100指数ETF-ProShares","PSQ":"做空纳斯达克100指数ETF-ProShares","DJX":"1/100道琼斯"},"source_url":"https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s/yTYYzzbQ08ymsKDOuBB5dw","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1111690771","content_text":"全球瞩目，美国是否加息，何时加息？\n当地时间6月16日，美联储发布经济预测和政策声明。美联储分别上调了对2021年的美国经济及通胀预期，而一同公布的点阵图则显示，有超过半数的FOMC委员给出了提前加息的预期，中位数预测暗示，美联储将在2023年前加息2次。\n利率或从0.1%升至0.6%。\n\n总体来说，美联储对物价的担忧提高，鹰派信号初现。这对我国股市、楼市会有什么影响，杠杆游戏根据此次议息会议的细节，展开谈一谈。\n1、鹰派转向信号值得重视！\n18位委员中有13人支持在2023年底前，至少加息1次。美联储对美国经济比较有信心，他们认为2021年美国GDP将增长7.0%，而3月份会议的预测为6.5%。\n美联储还将2023年的实际GDP预测，从之前预期的2.2%上调至2.4%。伴随经济的较好复苏，物价和货币政策问题自然来了。\n\n华泰期货做了一个统计，杠杆游戏觉得非常有意义，并致谢。\n美联储官员的加息路径点阵图显示，到2023年底，美联储或许将加息2次。\nFOMC（美联储的公开市场委员会）6月点阵图显示，18 位委员中有13人支持在2023 年底前至少加息1次，而3月为7位。\n\n图表来源|东北证券（特此感谢）\n11位委员预计到2023年底至少加息2次，7名委员预计在2022年开始加息。3月为4位。\n而3月份的点阵图中位数预测值暗示，到2023年底前不会加息。\n2、美联储主席鲍威尔总体认为，现在讨论加息还为时过早，关键是为什么？\n当然，美联储准备将超额准备金利率（IOER）从0.1%，调整至0.15%，也就是说，面对流动性过剩，美联储其实也在适当出手。\n不过说得很清楚，将继续每月增持至少800亿美元的国债，以及至少400亿美元的住房抵押贷款支持证券，直到充分就业和物价稳定目标取得实质性进展。\n这里杠杆游戏要多一句嘴，什么算充分就业和物价稳定目标？\n比如美国4月、5月新增非农就业人口分别为27.8万和55.9万，均低于预期。与黑天鹅前水平相比，5月就业人数依然减少了约760万。\n\n图表来源|东北证券（特此感谢）\n美联储预计2021年失业率将降至4.5%（与3月的预测持平），2022年和2023年失业率将分别降至3.8%和3.5%——到此，回到非常低的水平，大概算是合格；\n同时鲍威尔认为通货膨胀可能在未来几个月继续居高不下，然后才会有所缓和——物价指标应该算达标。\n所以，我的结论就是，美国人在乎的是经济，简单说就是就业指标。\n3、美国货币政策正常化可能加快，值得重视，但股市应该暂时无忧。\n从上文美联储委员对加息的态度人数变化看，杠杆游戏基本可以认为，加息节奏较此前大大加快。\n虽然目前还没有加息的信号，但提前到来是可能的。同时，鲍威尔已经准备讨论缩减购债，鹰派显露无疑，那么美元短期内有支撑，人民币汇率震荡为主。\n但因为中美流动性总体宽松。如我们的M2，5月末227.54万亿元，同比增长8.3%，增速比上月末高0.2个百分点。\n同时无论中美央行，与市场的沟通都较为充分、透明，谁都不会货币政策突然转向。\n所以股市总体不会恐慌，趋势性下跌不会出现。\n4、内需还是有点弱，外需支撑生产高景气，房地产和投资这个时候不能太凉。\n6月16日是很有意思的一天，美国通报他们的议息会议部分声明，我们发布了多项经济指标。\n我们可以看，工业生产其实略走弱，外需仍是重要支撑。\n首创证券统计发现，比如5月规上工业增加值两年平均增速为6.6%，较前值略降0.2个百分点。\n\n图表来源|首创证券（特此感谢）\n出口交货值复合增速有较大回落，与5月出口大幅回落相呼应，但如果没有出口的高增长，工业数据会下滑更多。\n总体来说，外需见顶回落，生产和出口下一步略有影响是一定的。\n而固投方面，同比增长15.4%。但房屋新开工面积连续两个月负增长，竣工面积本月大幅提速，同比转正为5.0%，短期内房地产投资仍有支撑，长期存在一定的压力。\n同时债务管理的加强，固定投资的回落大概率。\n\n5月社零销售增长12.4%，小幅低于市场预期的12.8%，前值为17.7%。\n总的来说，杠杆游戏认为，内需马马虎虎，出口见顶，那么，房地产打压归打压，不能搞得太难看。\n5、三季度美国是否有流动性拐点，值得注意。\n无论全球房价，还是大宗商品，以及美国股市，资产价格大涨本质这一轮都是流动性主导的。\n现在问题来了，三季度美国流动性是否有拐点？上文杠杆游戏写了，美联储有缩量的信号，超额准备金利率略有提高。\n\n图表来源|浙商证券（特此感谢）\n3季度杠杆游戏认为，第一幅度小，第二是个试探，同时我国央行上一轮的出牌已经证明，“以我为主”——只要美国不加息，资金回美追求高收益的世界趋势，应该不会到来。\n单这个角度说，2021年，我国股市不至于看空；楼市，只是对投机表现出异常严厉的态度，如上所述，经济的稳定还需要它。\n需要注意的是，3季度，比如7、8月，美联储始正式讨论削减QE，2021年底或2022年初开始削减QE，这些基本已在市场预期内。\n尽管如此，这对任何国家的货币政策，起码都是掣肘。\n6、结论：2021年股市基本不会受美国影响，楼市以我为主。前者杠杆游戏的意思是，不要担心流动性。\n后者我的意思是，楼市打击投机，将贯穿2021年始终。但地方对楼市的操盘能力，也是越来越纯熟，保障一定的价格和销量，从来都有自己办法。\n何况，水又没减少。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"513500":0.9,"MNQmain":0.9,"UDOW":0.9,"OEF":0.9,"QLD":0.9,"DJX":0.9,"SDOW":0.9,".IXIC":0.9,"SDS":0.9,"QQQ":0.9,"SPY":0.9,"TQQQ":0.9,"PSQ":0.9,"QID":0.9,"ESmain":0.9,"OEX":0.9,"DOG":0.9,".DJI":0.9,"NQmain":0.9,"IVV":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":4584,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":127962201,"gmtCreate":1624819136703,"gmtModify":1703845506737,"author":{"id":"3573688531814941","authorId":"3573688531814941","name":"ccssyy","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/788037228f49cc166fdc5223f0073775","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3573688531814941","idStr":"3573688531814941"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"111","listText":"111","text":"111","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":2,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/127962201","repostId":"1192656485","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":4939,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":137350785,"gmtCreate":1622303831147,"gmtModify":1704182866508,"author":{"id":"3573688531814941","authorId":"3573688531814941","name":"ccssyy","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/788037228f49cc166fdc5223f0073775","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3573688531814941","idStr":"3573688531814941"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"I&nbsp;","listText":"I&nbsp;","text":"I","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/137350785","repostId":"1144873023","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":3948,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":108967005,"gmtCreate":1619994048107,"gmtModify":1704336949715,"author":{"id":"3573688531814941","authorId":"3573688531814941","name":"ccssyy","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/788037228f49cc166fdc5223f0073775","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3573688531814941","idStr":"3573688531814941"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"666","listText":"666","text":"666","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/108967005","repostId":"2132567538","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"2132567538","kind":"highlight","pubTimestamp":1619941518,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/2132567538?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2021-05-02 15:45","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"Is the GDP of the United States strong or weak in the first quarter?","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2132567538","media":"智通财经网","summary":"本文来自“申万宏源宏观”。摘要一、周观点：美国一季度GDP究竟是偏强还是偏弱?21Q1美国GDP同比0.4%，略低于市场预期。美国21Q1  GDP实际同比0.4%，疫情以来首次同比转正，环比1.6%","content":"<p><b>This article comes from \"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/000166\">Shen Wan Hongyuan</a>Macro \".</b></p><p>Abstract</p><p><b>1. Week's Viewpoint: Is the GDP of the United States strong or weak in the first quarter?</b></p><p><b>21Q1 U.S. GDP was 0.4% year-on-year, slightly below market expectations.</b>U.S. GDP in 21Q1 was actually 0.4% year-on-year, turning positive year-on-year for the first time since the pandemic, and 1.6% quarter-on-quarter. The main contributing factors were commodity consumption, service consumption and non-residential investment, which showed the rapid recovery of the US economy under the improvement of the epidemic situation and financial subsidies. However, the main drag items are the change of private inventory and imports. In fact, the GDP growth rate of the United States in the first quarter was slightly lower than the market expectation, indicating that the market lacked understanding of the slow production recovery caused by excessive financial subsidies in the United States, and the expectation of excessive optimism about the improvement of the epidemic situation.</p><p><b>Resident consumption: subsidies promote commodity consumption, and the service industry is repaired when the epidemic eases.</b>1) In 21Q1, U.S. personal consumption expenditure drove GDP by 1.1 percentage points year-on-year, a significant improvement of 3 percentage points compared with 20Q4. Commodity consumption is mainly driven by durable goods, while the improvement of service consumption on GDP is greater than that of durable goods consumption; 2) From the perspective of monthly high frequency, PCE in March was 8.5% year-on-year and 3.7% month-on-month, and it strengthened again after a slight drop in the vacuum period of direct subsidies in February. It shows the immediate stimulating effect of the subsidy payment of $1,400 in March on consumption, and the recovery of service consumption under the relaxation of prevention and control measures. However, judging from the intensity of service consumption recovery, it is actually slightly weaker than the overly optimistic expectation of overseas markets in February-March.</p><p><b>Investment: Equipment investment improved significantly, interest rates inhibited real estate investment, and inventory replenishment did not appear.</b>In 21Q1, domestic private investment drove GDP by 0.8 percentage points year-on-year, a slight improvement of 0.1 percentage points compared with the fourth quarter. 1) Improvement in non-residential investment shows that the U.S. production sector expects an improvement in the economic outlook; 2) The decline in the year-on-year contribution of private inventory changes to 21Q1 GDP is the manifestation of the tear of supply and demand in the US economy. The demand is strong and the production recovers slowly, which leads to the decline of inventory, which means that the strength of commodity prices in Q1 cannot be supported by the logic of strong industrial production and active inventory replenishment in the US; 3) The year-on-year contribution of residential investment to GDP remained basically stable, while the month-on-month growth rate was suppressed with the overall rise of US interest rate in the previous period. The follow-up is expected to continue to cool with the medium-term upward process of interest rates.</p><p><b>Government spending and net exports: Subsidies drive government spending to increase, and the widening gap between supply and demand leads to a high increase in imports.</b>The tear of supply and demand in the U.S. economy has led to the deepening of the drag of net exports on GDP. In 21Q1, net exports dragged down GDP by 2 percentage points year-on-year, and the degree of drag widened by 0.7 percentage points compared with the previous 20Q4. Government expenditure in 21Q1 increased GDP by 0.1 percentage point year-on-year, mainly due to the issuance of direct subsidy checks for residents by the U.S. government to the banking system and the cost of purchasing vaccines.</p><p><b>It is expected that the economic recovery of the United States will be at a high point in the second quarter, and we will pay attention to the follow-up progress of the epidemic.</b>We believe that the strength of the future economic recovery in the United States depends on the vaccination process and the spread of COVID-19. Under the assumption that the epidemic situation in the United States continues to ease and the service industry is gradually recovering, it is expected that the second quarter will be the high point of recovery of the United States economy. However, the tear between supply and demand caused by excessive subsidies will continue until September, and the strength of the recovery of the United States economy during the year may not be as strong as the market expectations. Personal consumption expenditure: It is expected that the first quarter will be the high point of commodity consumption, and the service industry consumption will continue to gradually recover with the easing of the epidemic. However, the spread of more contagious virus variants in the United States and overseas countries will also affect the recovery intensity of the subsequent service industry; Investment: Improvements in non-residential investments require attention to subsequent pandemic progress. Residential investment will decline with the gradual cooling of the real estate market; Private inventory movements may have to wait until the end of unemployment benefits in September to improve. Government spending and net exports: Government spending is expected to continue to contribute positively to GDP year-on-year until the fourth quarter. Net exports will return to normal levels as the supply-demand gap narrows later this year.</p><p><b>Global macro data</b></p><p><b>High Frequency Data This Week</b>: New orders for durable goods in the United States all rose year-on-year</p><p><b>Pandemic</b>: New confirmed cases in the U.S. declined.</p><p><b>Demand</b>: Japanese retail sales picked up sharply year-on-year.</p><p><b>Supply and Employment</b>: New orders for durable goods in the United States all rose year-on-year.</p><p><b>TRADE</b>: The imports and exports of the United States rose sharply year-on-year in March.</p><p><b>Inflation and Commodities</b>: Oil prices rose slightly.</p><p><b>REALTY</b>: The contracted sales index of existing homes in the United States rose in March.</p><p><b>Monetary Policy and Exchange Rates</b>: the US Dollar Index falls, gold prices stable.</p><p><b>Global Macro Calendar</b>: Watch US ISM Manufacturing PMI</p><p>text</p><p><b>1. Week's Viewpoint: Is the GDP of the United States strong or weak in the first quarter?</b></p><p><b>1.21Q1 U.S. GDP 0.4% YoY, slightly below market expectations</b></p><p>The GDP of the United States in 21Q1 was actually 0.4% year-on-year, turning positive year-on-year for the first time since the epidemic, and 1.6% month-on-month. The main contributing factors were commodity consumption, service consumption and non-residential investment, which showed a relatively rapid recovery of the US economy under the improvement of the epidemic situation and financial subsidies. The main drag items are private inventory changes and imports, and in fact, the GDP growth rate of the United States in the first quarter was slightly lower than the market expectation, indicating that the market has insufficient awareness of the slow production recovery caused by excessive financial subsidies in the United States, and its overly optimistic expectation of the improvement of the epidemic situation.</p><p><img src=\"http://img.zhitongcaijing.com/images/contentformat/867b3b31bf5a4410ca85884cf283ce1f.jpg\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"588\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><b>2. Resident consumption: subsidies promote commodity consumption, the epidemic eases and the service industry repairs</b></p><p>In 21Q1, financial subsidies of up to 2,000 USD/person stimulated commodity consumption; The easing of the pandemic promoted the recovery of service consumption, but it was slightly weaker than the optimistic expectation of overseas markets in the previous period. 1) From a quarterly perspective, the personal consumption expenditure of the United States in 21Q1 drove GDP by 1.1 percentage points year-on-year, a substantial improvement of 3 percentage points compared with 20Q4. It jumped from the biggest drag on GDP in the fourth quarter to the biggest contribution, showing that the first quarter had the stimulating effect of the subsidy of 600 USD in January and the subsidy of 1,400 USD issued in March on consumption, and the gradual release of service consumption under the easing of the epidemic. 2) From the perspective of monthly high frequency, PCE reached 8.5% year-on-year and 3.7% month-on-month in March, and strengthened again after a slight drop in the vacuum period of direct subsidies in February. Among them, the year-on-year growth rate of durable goods and service consumption increased again, reaching 43.3% and 4.8% respectively in March, while non-durable goods slowed down slightly (4.3%) year-on-year, showing that the subsidy payment of $1,400 in March had an immediate stimulating effect on consumption, and the recovery of service consumption under the relaxation of prevention and control measures. However, judging from the intensity of service consumption recovery, it is actually slightly weaker than the overly optimistic expectation of overseas markets in February-March.</p><p><img src=\"http://img.zhitongcaijing.com/images/contentformat/fb6a3cdada866cc05b11f3b44abb7b40.jpg\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"398\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>Commodity consumption and service consumption jointly drive the high increase of personal consumption expenditure. 1) Commodity consumption is mainly driven by durable goods. In 21Q1, commodity consumption increased by 3.2 percentage points to GDP, an improvement of 1.5 percentage points compared with 20Q4, mainly due to the high increase of durable goods under the fiscal stimulus in the first quarter. In 21Q1, the contribution of durable goods to GDP improved significantly by 1.3 percentage points compared with the fourth quarter, while the contribution of non-durable goods to GDP only improved slightly by 0.3 percentage points; 2) The improvement of service consumption on GDP is greater than that of durable goods consumption. In 21Q1, although service consumption still had a negative pull of-1.4% on GDP, it has significantly improved by 1.6 percentage points compared with the previous quarter, which is even more than that of durable goods consumption, showing that service consumption has greater flexibility to improve under the dual factors of financial subsidy + epidemic easing.</p><p><img src=\"http://img.zhitongcaijing.com/images/contentformat/e8b1b37f95a3c799e28a194bc63e56e7.jpg\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"399\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><b>3. Investment: Equipment investment improved significantly, interest rates inhibited real estate investment, and inventory replenishment did not appear</b></p><p>The effect of non-residential investment on GDP has greatly improved, and private inventory has turned into a drag. In 21Q1, domestic private investment drove GDP by 0.8 percentage points year-on-year, a slight improvement of 0.1 percentage points compared with the fourth quarter.</p><p>1) Improvement in non-residential investment shows that the U.S. production sector has improved its expectations for the economic outlook. The main contributor to the improvement in private investment was non-residential investment (0.6 percentage point improvement), mainly from equipment investment, indicating that manufacturing enterprises remain optimistic about the prospect of economic recovery.</p><p>2) The decline in the year-on-year contribution of private inventory changes to 21Q1 GDP is the manifestation of the tear of supply and demand in the US economy. Strong demand and slow production recovery lead to the decline of inventory, which means that the strength of commodity prices in Q1 cannot be supported by the logic of strong industrial production and active inventory replenishment in the US. The main drag on private investment was the movement of private inventories (0.4 percentage point drag).</p><p>3) The year-on-year contribution of residential investment to GDP remained basically stable, while the month-on-month growth rate was suppressed with the overall rise of US interest rate in the previous period. It is expected that the follow-up will continue to cool with the medium-term upward process of interest rates. In 21Q1, the pull of residential investment on GDP remained stable, but with the gradual increase of mortgage interest rates in the past 21 years, the U.S. real estate market has cooled down, and the expenditure on residential construction and sales of existing houses have slowed down. It is expected that the pull effect of subsequent residential investment on GDP will gradually decline.</p><p><img src=\"http://img.zhitongcaijing.com/images/contentformat/8831f8bd60fdfc9671df61b6e741faaa.jpg\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"393\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><b>4. Government spending and net exports: Subsidies boost government spending, and the widening gap between supply and demand leads to a high increase in imports</b></p><p>The tear of supply and demand in the U.S. economy has led to the deepening of the drag of net exports on GDP. In 21Q1, net exports dragged down GDP by 2 percentage points year-on-year, and the degree of drag widened by 0.7 percentage points compared with the previous 20Q4. 1) Exports were dragged down by 1 percentage point, but they have improved by 0.2 percentage points compared with the previous quarter, showing a slight recovery of industrial production in the United States, but the improvement of personal consumption expenditure by 3.0 percentage points is still dwarfed by comparison, which actually reflects the widening of supply and demand gap in 21Q1 under excessive financial subsidies in the United States; 2) In 21Q1, imports dragged down GDP by 1.0 percentage points year-on-year, and the degree of drag greatly expanded by 0.9 percentage points compared with the previous quarter. The direct consequence of the widening gap between supply and demand in the United States is the expansion of import scale.</p><p>Government expenditure in 21Q1 increased GDP by 0.1 percentage point year-on-year, mainly due to the issuance of direct subsidy checks for residents by the U.S. government to the banking system and the cost of purchasing vaccines.</p><p><img src=\"http://img.zhitongcaijing.com/images/contentformat/1e6d4ceb162a00ae93de51b3cf6bb71b.jpg\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"386\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><b>5. It is expected that the U.S. economic recovery will be at a high point in the second quarter, and pay attention to the follow-up progress of the epidemic</b></p><p>Looking ahead, we believe that the strength of future U.S. economic recovery depends on the vaccination process and the spread of COVID-19. Under the assumption that the epidemic situation in the United States continues to ease and the service industry is gradually recovering, it is expected that the second quarter will be the high point of recovery of the United States economy. However, the tear between supply and demand caused by excessive subsidies will continue until September, and the strength of the recovery of the United States economy during the year may not be as strong as the market expectations.</p><p>Personal consumption expenditure: 1) Although 21Q1 commodity consumption shows an extremely strong momentum, we expect the first quarter to be the high point of commodity consumption, and it will gradually decline with the subsidy ebb; 2) The consumption of the service industry will continue to recover gradually as the epidemic eases, but the global epidemic has rebounded since March, especially in European countries and emerging countries. At the same time, the spread of more contagious virus variants in the United States and overseas countries will also affect the recovery intensity of the subsequent service industry.</p><p>Investment: 1) The main driving force of the improvement of non-residential investment in 21Q1 is the expectation of economic improvement. From the current point of view, the global epidemic is the core factor determining the intensity of economic recovery, and it is necessary to pay attention to the follow-up epidemic progress; 2) Residential investment will decline with the gradual cooling of the real estate market; 3) The change of private inventory, that is, the intensity of inventory replenishment, will depend on whether the current situation of supply and demand tearing in the United States can be eased. From the current point of view, it will take until the unemployment subsidy ends in September before there will be a significant bridging trend at both ends of supply and demand in the United States, which will then drive inventory investment.</p><p>Government expenditure and net exports: 1) With the continuous payment of unemployment subsidies in the second and third quarters, government expenditure is expected to continue to make a positive contribution to GDP year-on-year before the fourth quarter, and if the U.S. Employment Plan or the American Family Plan can be implemented within the year, it will also boost the level of government expenditure; In terms of net exports, exports will depend on the progress of the recovery of industrial production in the United States. As mentioned above, they will not be boosted until the fourth quarter, while imports, on the contrary, will fall back to normal levels as the supply-demand gap narrows later this year.</p><p><img src=\"http://img.zhitongcaijing.com/images/contentformat/32e1b124c2e79173310a2a69f29f1ee7.jpg\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"547\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><b>2. Global macro data: New confirmed cases in the United States declined</b></p><p><b>1. Epidemic: New confirmed cases in the United States decline</b></p><p>New confirmed cases in the U.S. dropped this week. The number of newly confirmed cases in the United States dropped to more than 53,000 on average on 7 days. As of April 29th, the global COVID-19 epidemic has been diagnosed more than 150 million, with 3.14 million deaths and 120 million recoveries. This week (April 27th-April 30th), there were 220,000 and 9,000 newly confirmed cases in the United States and the United Kingdom respectively.</p><p>As of April 28, Israel has received the most COVID-19 vaccines per 100 people worldwide, reaching 121.1 shots per 100 people, 70.2 shots per 100 people in the United States and 70.9 shots per 100 people in the United Kingdom. As of April 28, Israel had the highest proportion of fully vaccinated people in the world, at 58.7%, while the United States and Britain had 29.3% and 20.7% respectively.</p><p><img src=\"http://img.zhitongcaijing.com/images/contentformat/887a942234cb8fe459a2f83e1d51371f.jpg\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"591\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><img src=\"http://img.zhitongcaijing.com/images/contentformat/62573bfd15fa133a1b4a5d4e236f878d.jpg\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"397\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><b>2. Demand: Japanese retail sales picked up sharply year-on-year</b></p><p>Both retail sales and wholesale sales in Japan rose sharply year-on-year. Japan's retail sales index in March was 5.3% year-on-year, of which retail textiles and apparel were 15.8% year-on-year, and the wholesale sales index in March was 1.0% year-on-year.</p><p><img src=\"http://img.zhitongcaijing.com/images/contentformat/a115423dbfa92a2b68fd1ddba7b7202c.jpg\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"432\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>South Korea's retail sales continued to grow year-on-year in March, and semi-durable goods consumption increased significantly. South Korea's retail sales in March increased by 3.5 percentage points to 13.5% year-on-year, of which the consumption of semi-durable goods grew the fastest, 35.5% year-on-year; Durable goods were 13.6% and non-durable goods were 6.5% year-on-year.</p><p><img src=\"http://img.zhitongcaijing.com/images/contentformat/660433692ab7c356ac6e92af5532c956.jpg\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"549\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><b>3. Supply and employment: New orders for durable goods in the United States all rose year-on-year</b></p><p>The inventory of durable goods in the United States increased, and the growth rate of new orders both increased year-on-year. U.S. durable goods inventories reached $431.84 billion in March, up 1.0% month-over-month and 1.7% year-over-year. New orders for durable goods in the United States rose 0.5% month-on-month in March and rose sharply by 25% year-on-year.</p><p><img src=\"http://img.zhitongcaijing.com/images/contentformat/00d167c28987b587b0353bdb22cabcb3.jpg\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"397\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>Japan's unemployment rate fell to 2.6% in March. Japan's unemployment rate fell 0.3 percentage points to 2.6% in March from the previous month. South Korea's industrial production index increased year-on-year, and the industry continued to rebound. South Korea's industrial production index rose 5.7% year-on-year and 0.8% month-on-month to 112.6 in March.</p><p><img src=\"http://img.zhitongcaijing.com/images/contentformat/3e518f69ea70eb9423bd2c4c0800a9d4.jpg\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"393\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>U.S. industrial materials production continues to rise. 1) As of the week of April 24th, the weekly crude steel output in the United States increased by 43.6% year-on-year, and the capacity utilization rate increased slightly by 0.4 percentage points from last week to 78.4%; 2) U.S. refinery operable capacity utilization rose 0.4 percentage points to 85.4% as of April 23.</p><p><img src=\"http://img.zhitongcaijing.com/images/contentformat/08378049f4011957a1ca13a61b5f7ee9.jpg\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"395\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>The number of initial claims for unemployment benefits in the United States fell slightly that week, and the number of continuing claims for unemployment benefits rose slightly. On the week of April 24th, the number of initial unemployment claims in the United States reached 553,000, down 13,000 from last week; In the week of April 17th, the number of people who continued to claim unemployment benefits reached 3.66 million, an increase of 9,000 from the previous month.</p><p><img src=\"http://img.zhitongcaijing.com/images/contentformat/50abaebb23322c65845134f36edf2eac.jpg\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"550\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><b>4. Trade: U.S. imports and exports both rose sharply year-on-year in March</b></p><p>U.S. imports and exports both rose sharply year-on-year in March. The growth rate of U.S. exports in March rose sharply by 16.5 percentage points from the previous month to 11.5%, while imports increased by 20.6% year-on-year. The U.S. goods trade balance in March was-$90.59 billion.</p><p><img src=\"http://img.zhitongcaijing.com/images/contentformat/b94fcaf0b73f26e0f7e86a9f8b746b80.jpg\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"549\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><b>5. Inflation and commodities: Oil prices edge up</b></p><p>EIA crude oil inventories rose by 9 million barrels in the week of April 28, and U.S. crude oil production fell slightly by 100,000 barrels per day to 10.9 million barrels per day. As of April 29th, the weekly average price of WTI crude oil rose to $63.2/barrel; The average weekly price of Brent oil rose to $66.6/barrel.</p><p><img src=\"http://img.zhitongcaijing.com/images/contentformat/2ea9504a69c4ccccc0e74ff1a56da96e.jpg\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"396\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><img src=\"http://img.zhitongcaijing.com/images/contentformat/e2a42a869453a51bf63a352119f75e6a.jpg\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"402\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><b>6. Real estate: U.S. existing home contracted sales index rose year-on-year in March</b></p><p>The U.S. S&P/CS house price index rose for eight consecutive months in February. In February, the U.S. S&P/CS house price index rose by 11.9% year-on-year to 246.0, rising for eight consecutive months. The contracted sales index of existing homes in the United States in March was 23.3% year-on-year and 1.9% month-on-month.</p><p><img src=\"http://img.zhitongcaijing.com/images/contentformat/6ac3751240b8a02c34f4c66d93fb255b.jpg\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"398\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>Japan's new housing construction and construction orders rose sharply in March. In March, the construction of new houses in Japan started by 1.5% year-on-year and 18.1% month-on-month, and the number of construction orders in March was 12.5% year-on-year and 192.7% month-on-month, the highest increase in nearly a year.</p><p><img src=\"http://img.zhitongcaijing.com/images/contentformat/e961519800be12d5e185f10acff56a58.jpg\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"392\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>U.S. 5-year mortgage rates have fallen and 15-year, 30-year mortgage rates have risen. For the week ending April 29, 5-year mortgage rates fell 0.2 percentage points to 2.6%, while 15-year and 30-year mortgage rates rose to 2.3% and 3.0%, respectively. In the week ending April 23rd, the US MBA market index fell by 18.2 to 706.6, and the heat of the housing market dropped slightly.</p><p><img src=\"http://img.zhitongcaijing.com/images/contentformat/2eb2b206b830b79a11aed2265d986bec.jpg\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"395\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><b>7. Monetary policy and exchange rate: the US Dollar Index falls, gold prices are basically stable</b></p><p>This week, the Federal Reserve's interest rate meeting was held, Powell's speech was pigeon, the the US Dollar Index fell, and the gold price was basically stable. On April 28th, local time, the Federal Reserve announced the statement of the interest rate meeting. Powell said at the press conference after the meeting that it will still take some time to see substantial progress. Before that, the current scale of asset purchases will be maintained. It is not time to discuss Taper yet, and the the US Dollar Index continues to decline. As of April 29th, the US Dollar Index closed at 90.6140, down 0.7% from last week; The exchange rate of the euro and the pound against the US dollar (the exchange rate data of the pound as of the 28th) closed at 1.2129 and 1.3906 respectively, appreciating by 0.7% and depreciating by 0.2% respectively compared with last week; As the Bank of Canada led Taper, the Canadian dollar strengthened, closing at 1.2292, an appreciation of 1.7% from last week. This week, the average weekly price of gold in London was USD 1,774.8/oz, which was basically stable compared with last week, and the year-on-year increase decreased by 1.2pct to 3.6% compared with last week.</p><p><img src=\"http://img.zhitongcaijing.com/images/contentformat/c2e4e8d549f84a56f7d651806cc3a657.jpg\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"398\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><img src=\"http://img.zhitongcaijing.com/images/contentformat/09b461fbeb60aed3abf2e7ffd691b486.jpg\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"551\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>","source":"highlight_zhitongcaijin","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Is the GDP of the United States strong or weak in the first quarter?</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nIs the GDP of the United States strong or weak in the first quarter?\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">智通财经网</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-05-02 15:45</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><b>This article comes from \"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/000166\">Shen Wan Hongyuan</a>Macro \".</b></p><p>Abstract</p><p><b>1. Week's Viewpoint: Is the GDP of the United States strong or weak in the first quarter?</b></p><p><b>21Q1 U.S. GDP was 0.4% year-on-year, slightly below market expectations.</b>U.S. GDP in 21Q1 was actually 0.4% year-on-year, turning positive year-on-year for the first time since the pandemic, and 1.6% quarter-on-quarter. The main contributing factors were commodity consumption, service consumption and non-residential investment, which showed the rapid recovery of the US economy under the improvement of the epidemic situation and financial subsidies. However, the main drag items are the change of private inventory and imports. In fact, the GDP growth rate of the United States in the first quarter was slightly lower than the market expectation, indicating that the market lacked understanding of the slow production recovery caused by excessive financial subsidies in the United States, and the expectation of excessive optimism about the improvement of the epidemic situation.</p><p><b>Resident consumption: subsidies promote commodity consumption, and the service industry is repaired when the epidemic eases.</b>1) In 21Q1, U.S. personal consumption expenditure drove GDP by 1.1 percentage points year-on-year, a significant improvement of 3 percentage points compared with 20Q4. Commodity consumption is mainly driven by durable goods, while the improvement of service consumption on GDP is greater than that of durable goods consumption; 2) From the perspective of monthly high frequency, PCE in March was 8.5% year-on-year and 3.7% month-on-month, and it strengthened again after a slight drop in the vacuum period of direct subsidies in February. It shows the immediate stimulating effect of the subsidy payment of $1,400 in March on consumption, and the recovery of service consumption under the relaxation of prevention and control measures. However, judging from the intensity of service consumption recovery, it is actually slightly weaker than the overly optimistic expectation of overseas markets in February-March.</p><p><b>Investment: Equipment investment improved significantly, interest rates inhibited real estate investment, and inventory replenishment did not appear.</b>In 21Q1, domestic private investment drove GDP by 0.8 percentage points year-on-year, a slight improvement of 0.1 percentage points compared with the fourth quarter. 1) Improvement in non-residential investment shows that the U.S. production sector expects an improvement in the economic outlook; 2) The decline in the year-on-year contribution of private inventory changes to 21Q1 GDP is the manifestation of the tear of supply and demand in the US economy. The demand is strong and the production recovers slowly, which leads to the decline of inventory, which means that the strength of commodity prices in Q1 cannot be supported by the logic of strong industrial production and active inventory replenishment in the US; 3) The year-on-year contribution of residential investment to GDP remained basically stable, while the month-on-month growth rate was suppressed with the overall rise of US interest rate in the previous period. The follow-up is expected to continue to cool with the medium-term upward process of interest rates.</p><p><b>Government spending and net exports: Subsidies drive government spending to increase, and the widening gap between supply and demand leads to a high increase in imports.</b>The tear of supply and demand in the U.S. economy has led to the deepening of the drag of net exports on GDP. In 21Q1, net exports dragged down GDP by 2 percentage points year-on-year, and the degree of drag widened by 0.7 percentage points compared with the previous 20Q4. Government expenditure in 21Q1 increased GDP by 0.1 percentage point year-on-year, mainly due to the issuance of direct subsidy checks for residents by the U.S. government to the banking system and the cost of purchasing vaccines.</p><p><b>It is expected that the economic recovery of the United States will be at a high point in the second quarter, and we will pay attention to the follow-up progress of the epidemic.</b>We believe that the strength of the future economic recovery in the United States depends on the vaccination process and the spread of COVID-19. Under the assumption that the epidemic situation in the United States continues to ease and the service industry is gradually recovering, it is expected that the second quarter will be the high point of recovery of the United States economy. However, the tear between supply and demand caused by excessive subsidies will continue until September, and the strength of the recovery of the United States economy during the year may not be as strong as the market expectations. Personal consumption expenditure: It is expected that the first quarter will be the high point of commodity consumption, and the service industry consumption will continue to gradually recover with the easing of the epidemic. However, the spread of more contagious virus variants in the United States and overseas countries will also affect the recovery intensity of the subsequent service industry; Investment: Improvements in non-residential investments require attention to subsequent pandemic progress. Residential investment will decline with the gradual cooling of the real estate market; Private inventory movements may have to wait until the end of unemployment benefits in September to improve. Government spending and net exports: Government spending is expected to continue to contribute positively to GDP year-on-year until the fourth quarter. Net exports will return to normal levels as the supply-demand gap narrows later this year.</p><p><b>Global macro data</b></p><p><b>High Frequency Data This Week</b>: New orders for durable goods in the United States all rose year-on-year</p><p><b>Pandemic</b>: New confirmed cases in the U.S. declined.</p><p><b>Demand</b>: Japanese retail sales picked up sharply year-on-year.</p><p><b>Supply and Employment</b>: New orders for durable goods in the United States all rose year-on-year.</p><p><b>TRADE</b>: The imports and exports of the United States rose sharply year-on-year in March.</p><p><b>Inflation and Commodities</b>: Oil prices rose slightly.</p><p><b>REALTY</b>: The contracted sales index of existing homes in the United States rose in March.</p><p><b>Monetary Policy and Exchange Rates</b>: the US Dollar Index falls, gold prices stable.</p><p><b>Global Macro Calendar</b>: Watch US ISM Manufacturing PMI</p><p>text</p><p><b>1. Week's Viewpoint: Is the GDP of the United States strong or weak in the first quarter?</b></p><p><b>1.21Q1 U.S. GDP 0.4% YoY, slightly below market expectations</b></p><p>The GDP of the United States in 21Q1 was actually 0.4% year-on-year, turning positive year-on-year for the first time since the epidemic, and 1.6% month-on-month. The main contributing factors were commodity consumption, service consumption and non-residential investment, which showed a relatively rapid recovery of the US economy under the improvement of the epidemic situation and financial subsidies. The main drag items are private inventory changes and imports, and in fact, the GDP growth rate of the United States in the first quarter was slightly lower than the market expectation, indicating that the market has insufficient awareness of the slow production recovery caused by excessive financial subsidies in the United States, and its overly optimistic expectation of the improvement of the epidemic situation.</p><p><img src=\"http://img.zhitongcaijing.com/images/contentformat/867b3b31bf5a4410ca85884cf283ce1f.jpg\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"588\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><b>2. Resident consumption: subsidies promote commodity consumption, the epidemic eases and the service industry repairs</b></p><p>In 21Q1, financial subsidies of up to 2,000 USD/person stimulated commodity consumption; The easing of the pandemic promoted the recovery of service consumption, but it was slightly weaker than the optimistic expectation of overseas markets in the previous period. 1) From a quarterly perspective, the personal consumption expenditure of the United States in 21Q1 drove GDP by 1.1 percentage points year-on-year, a substantial improvement of 3 percentage points compared with 20Q4. It jumped from the biggest drag on GDP in the fourth quarter to the biggest contribution, showing that the first quarter had the stimulating effect of the subsidy of 600 USD in January and the subsidy of 1,400 USD issued in March on consumption, and the gradual release of service consumption under the easing of the epidemic. 2) From the perspective of monthly high frequency, PCE reached 8.5% year-on-year and 3.7% month-on-month in March, and strengthened again after a slight drop in the vacuum period of direct subsidies in February. Among them, the year-on-year growth rate of durable goods and service consumption increased again, reaching 43.3% and 4.8% respectively in March, while non-durable goods slowed down slightly (4.3%) year-on-year, showing that the subsidy payment of $1,400 in March had an immediate stimulating effect on consumption, and the recovery of service consumption under the relaxation of prevention and control measures. However, judging from the intensity of service consumption recovery, it is actually slightly weaker than the overly optimistic expectation of overseas markets in February-March.</p><p><img src=\"http://img.zhitongcaijing.com/images/contentformat/fb6a3cdada866cc05b11f3b44abb7b40.jpg\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"398\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>Commodity consumption and service consumption jointly drive the high increase of personal consumption expenditure. 1) Commodity consumption is mainly driven by durable goods. In 21Q1, commodity consumption increased by 3.2 percentage points to GDP, an improvement of 1.5 percentage points compared with 20Q4, mainly due to the high increase of durable goods under the fiscal stimulus in the first quarter. In 21Q1, the contribution of durable goods to GDP improved significantly by 1.3 percentage points compared with the fourth quarter, while the contribution of non-durable goods to GDP only improved slightly by 0.3 percentage points; 2) The improvement of service consumption on GDP is greater than that of durable goods consumption. In 21Q1, although service consumption still had a negative pull of-1.4% on GDP, it has significantly improved by 1.6 percentage points compared with the previous quarter, which is even more than that of durable goods consumption, showing that service consumption has greater flexibility to improve under the dual factors of financial subsidy + epidemic easing.</p><p><img src=\"http://img.zhitongcaijing.com/images/contentformat/e8b1b37f95a3c799e28a194bc63e56e7.jpg\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"399\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><b>3. Investment: Equipment investment improved significantly, interest rates inhibited real estate investment, and inventory replenishment did not appear</b></p><p>The effect of non-residential investment on GDP has greatly improved, and private inventory has turned into a drag. In 21Q1, domestic private investment drove GDP by 0.8 percentage points year-on-year, a slight improvement of 0.1 percentage points compared with the fourth quarter.</p><p>1) Improvement in non-residential investment shows that the U.S. production sector has improved its expectations for the economic outlook. The main contributor to the improvement in private investment was non-residential investment (0.6 percentage point improvement), mainly from equipment investment, indicating that manufacturing enterprises remain optimistic about the prospect of economic recovery.</p><p>2) The decline in the year-on-year contribution of private inventory changes to 21Q1 GDP is the manifestation of the tear of supply and demand in the US economy. Strong demand and slow production recovery lead to the decline of inventory, which means that the strength of commodity prices in Q1 cannot be supported by the logic of strong industrial production and active inventory replenishment in the US. The main drag on private investment was the movement of private inventories (0.4 percentage point drag).</p><p>3) The year-on-year contribution of residential investment to GDP remained basically stable, while the month-on-month growth rate was suppressed with the overall rise of US interest rate in the previous period. It is expected that the follow-up will continue to cool with the medium-term upward process of interest rates. In 21Q1, the pull of residential investment on GDP remained stable, but with the gradual increase of mortgage interest rates in the past 21 years, the U.S. real estate market has cooled down, and the expenditure on residential construction and sales of existing houses have slowed down. It is expected that the pull effect of subsequent residential investment on GDP will gradually decline.</p><p><img src=\"http://img.zhitongcaijing.com/images/contentformat/8831f8bd60fdfc9671df61b6e741faaa.jpg\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"393\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><b>4. Government spending and net exports: Subsidies boost government spending, and the widening gap between supply and demand leads to a high increase in imports</b></p><p>The tear of supply and demand in the U.S. economy has led to the deepening of the drag of net exports on GDP. In 21Q1, net exports dragged down GDP by 2 percentage points year-on-year, and the degree of drag widened by 0.7 percentage points compared with the previous 20Q4. 1) Exports were dragged down by 1 percentage point, but they have improved by 0.2 percentage points compared with the previous quarter, showing a slight recovery of industrial production in the United States, but the improvement of personal consumption expenditure by 3.0 percentage points is still dwarfed by comparison, which actually reflects the widening of supply and demand gap in 21Q1 under excessive financial subsidies in the United States; 2) In 21Q1, imports dragged down GDP by 1.0 percentage points year-on-year, and the degree of drag greatly expanded by 0.9 percentage points compared with the previous quarter. The direct consequence of the widening gap between supply and demand in the United States is the expansion of import scale.</p><p>Government expenditure in 21Q1 increased GDP by 0.1 percentage point year-on-year, mainly due to the issuance of direct subsidy checks for residents by the U.S. government to the banking system and the cost of purchasing vaccines.</p><p><img src=\"http://img.zhitongcaijing.com/images/contentformat/1e6d4ceb162a00ae93de51b3cf6bb71b.jpg\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"386\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><b>5. It is expected that the U.S. economic recovery will be at a high point in the second quarter, and pay attention to the follow-up progress of the epidemic</b></p><p>Looking ahead, we believe that the strength of future U.S. economic recovery depends on the vaccination process and the spread of COVID-19. Under the assumption that the epidemic situation in the United States continues to ease and the service industry is gradually recovering, it is expected that the second quarter will be the high point of recovery of the United States economy. However, the tear between supply and demand caused by excessive subsidies will continue until September, and the strength of the recovery of the United States economy during the year may not be as strong as the market expectations.</p><p>Personal consumption expenditure: 1) Although 21Q1 commodity consumption shows an extremely strong momentum, we expect the first quarter to be the high point of commodity consumption, and it will gradually decline with the subsidy ebb; 2) The consumption of the service industry will continue to recover gradually as the epidemic eases, but the global epidemic has rebounded since March, especially in European countries and emerging countries. At the same time, the spread of more contagious virus variants in the United States and overseas countries will also affect the recovery intensity of the subsequent service industry.</p><p>Investment: 1) The main driving force of the improvement of non-residential investment in 21Q1 is the expectation of economic improvement. From the current point of view, the global epidemic is the core factor determining the intensity of economic recovery, and it is necessary to pay attention to the follow-up epidemic progress; 2) Residential investment will decline with the gradual cooling of the real estate market; 3) The change of private inventory, that is, the intensity of inventory replenishment, will depend on whether the current situation of supply and demand tearing in the United States can be eased. From the current point of view, it will take until the unemployment subsidy ends in September before there will be a significant bridging trend at both ends of supply and demand in the United States, which will then drive inventory investment.</p><p>Government expenditure and net exports: 1) With the continuous payment of unemployment subsidies in the second and third quarters, government expenditure is expected to continue to make a positive contribution to GDP year-on-year before the fourth quarter, and if the U.S. Employment Plan or the American Family Plan can be implemented within the year, it will also boost the level of government expenditure; In terms of net exports, exports will depend on the progress of the recovery of industrial production in the United States. As mentioned above, they will not be boosted until the fourth quarter, while imports, on the contrary, will fall back to normal levels as the supply-demand gap narrows later this year.</p><p><img src=\"http://img.zhitongcaijing.com/images/contentformat/32e1b124c2e79173310a2a69f29f1ee7.jpg\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"547\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><b>2. Global macro data: New confirmed cases in the United States declined</b></p><p><b>1. Epidemic: New confirmed cases in the United States decline</b></p><p>New confirmed cases in the U.S. dropped this week. The number of newly confirmed cases in the United States dropped to more than 53,000 on average on 7 days. As of April 29th, the global COVID-19 epidemic has been diagnosed more than 150 million, with 3.14 million deaths and 120 million recoveries. This week (April 27th-April 30th), there were 220,000 and 9,000 newly confirmed cases in the United States and the United Kingdom respectively.</p><p>As of April 28, Israel has received the most COVID-19 vaccines per 100 people worldwide, reaching 121.1 shots per 100 people, 70.2 shots per 100 people in the United States and 70.9 shots per 100 people in the United Kingdom. As of April 28, Israel had the highest proportion of fully vaccinated people in the world, at 58.7%, while the United States and Britain had 29.3% and 20.7% respectively.</p><p><img src=\"http://img.zhitongcaijing.com/images/contentformat/887a942234cb8fe459a2f83e1d51371f.jpg\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"591\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><img src=\"http://img.zhitongcaijing.com/images/contentformat/62573bfd15fa133a1b4a5d4e236f878d.jpg\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"397\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><b>2. Demand: Japanese retail sales picked up sharply year-on-year</b></p><p>Both retail sales and wholesale sales in Japan rose sharply year-on-year. Japan's retail sales index in March was 5.3% year-on-year, of which retail textiles and apparel were 15.8% year-on-year, and the wholesale sales index in March was 1.0% year-on-year.</p><p><img src=\"http://img.zhitongcaijing.com/images/contentformat/a115423dbfa92a2b68fd1ddba7b7202c.jpg\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"432\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>South Korea's retail sales continued to grow year-on-year in March, and semi-durable goods consumption increased significantly. South Korea's retail sales in March increased by 3.5 percentage points to 13.5% year-on-year, of which the consumption of semi-durable goods grew the fastest, 35.5% year-on-year; Durable goods were 13.6% and non-durable goods were 6.5% year-on-year.</p><p><img src=\"http://img.zhitongcaijing.com/images/contentformat/660433692ab7c356ac6e92af5532c956.jpg\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"549\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><b>3. Supply and employment: New orders for durable goods in the United States all rose year-on-year</b></p><p>The inventory of durable goods in the United States increased, and the growth rate of new orders both increased year-on-year. U.S. durable goods inventories reached $431.84 billion in March, up 1.0% month-over-month and 1.7% year-over-year. New orders for durable goods in the United States rose 0.5% month-on-month in March and rose sharply by 25% year-on-year.</p><p><img src=\"http://img.zhitongcaijing.com/images/contentformat/00d167c28987b587b0353bdb22cabcb3.jpg\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"397\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>Japan's unemployment rate fell to 2.6% in March. Japan's unemployment rate fell 0.3 percentage points to 2.6% in March from the previous month. South Korea's industrial production index increased year-on-year, and the industry continued to rebound. South Korea's industrial production index rose 5.7% year-on-year and 0.8% month-on-month to 112.6 in March.</p><p><img src=\"http://img.zhitongcaijing.com/images/contentformat/3e518f69ea70eb9423bd2c4c0800a9d4.jpg\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"393\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>U.S. industrial materials production continues to rise. 1) As of the week of April 24th, the weekly crude steel output in the United States increased by 43.6% year-on-year, and the capacity utilization rate increased slightly by 0.4 percentage points from last week to 78.4%; 2) U.S. refinery operable capacity utilization rose 0.4 percentage points to 85.4% as of April 23.</p><p><img src=\"http://img.zhitongcaijing.com/images/contentformat/08378049f4011957a1ca13a61b5f7ee9.jpg\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"395\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>The number of initial claims for unemployment benefits in the United States fell slightly that week, and the number of continuing claims for unemployment benefits rose slightly. On the week of April 24th, the number of initial unemployment claims in the United States reached 553,000, down 13,000 from last week; In the week of April 17th, the number of people who continued to claim unemployment benefits reached 3.66 million, an increase of 9,000 from the previous month.</p><p><img src=\"http://img.zhitongcaijing.com/images/contentformat/50abaebb23322c65845134f36edf2eac.jpg\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"550\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><b>4. Trade: U.S. imports and exports both rose sharply year-on-year in March</b></p><p>U.S. imports and exports both rose sharply year-on-year in March. The growth rate of U.S. exports in March rose sharply by 16.5 percentage points from the previous month to 11.5%, while imports increased by 20.6% year-on-year. The U.S. goods trade balance in March was-$90.59 billion.</p><p><img src=\"http://img.zhitongcaijing.com/images/contentformat/b94fcaf0b73f26e0f7e86a9f8b746b80.jpg\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"549\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><b>5. Inflation and commodities: Oil prices edge up</b></p><p>EIA crude oil inventories rose by 9 million barrels in the week of April 28, and U.S. crude oil production fell slightly by 100,000 barrels per day to 10.9 million barrels per day. As of April 29th, the weekly average price of WTI crude oil rose to $63.2/barrel; The average weekly price of Brent oil rose to $66.6/barrel.</p><p><img src=\"http://img.zhitongcaijing.com/images/contentformat/2ea9504a69c4ccccc0e74ff1a56da96e.jpg\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"396\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><img src=\"http://img.zhitongcaijing.com/images/contentformat/e2a42a869453a51bf63a352119f75e6a.jpg\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"402\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><b>6. Real estate: U.S. existing home contracted sales index rose year-on-year in March</b></p><p>The U.S. S&P/CS house price index rose for eight consecutive months in February. In February, the U.S. S&P/CS house price index rose by 11.9% year-on-year to 246.0, rising for eight consecutive months. The contracted sales index of existing homes in the United States in March was 23.3% year-on-year and 1.9% month-on-month.</p><p><img src=\"http://img.zhitongcaijing.com/images/contentformat/6ac3751240b8a02c34f4c66d93fb255b.jpg\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"398\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>Japan's new housing construction and construction orders rose sharply in March. In March, the construction of new houses in Japan started by 1.5% year-on-year and 18.1% month-on-month, and the number of construction orders in March was 12.5% year-on-year and 192.7% month-on-month, the highest increase in nearly a year.</p><p><img src=\"http://img.zhitongcaijing.com/images/contentformat/e961519800be12d5e185f10acff56a58.jpg\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"392\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>U.S. 5-year mortgage rates have fallen and 15-year, 30-year mortgage rates have risen. For the week ending April 29, 5-year mortgage rates fell 0.2 percentage points to 2.6%, while 15-year and 30-year mortgage rates rose to 2.3% and 3.0%, respectively. In the week ending April 23rd, the US MBA market index fell by 18.2 to 706.6, and the heat of the housing market dropped slightly.</p><p><img src=\"http://img.zhitongcaijing.com/images/contentformat/2eb2b206b830b79a11aed2265d986bec.jpg\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"395\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><b>7. Monetary policy and exchange rate: the US Dollar Index falls, gold prices are basically stable</b></p><p>This week, the Federal Reserve's interest rate meeting was held, Powell's speech was pigeon, the the US Dollar Index fell, and the gold price was basically stable. On April 28th, local time, the Federal Reserve announced the statement of the interest rate meeting. Powell said at the press conference after the meeting that it will still take some time to see substantial progress. Before that, the current scale of asset purchases will be maintained. It is not time to discuss Taper yet, and the the US Dollar Index continues to decline. As of April 29th, the US Dollar Index closed at 90.6140, down 0.7% from last week; The exchange rate of the euro and the pound against the US dollar (the exchange rate data of the pound as of the 28th) closed at 1.2129 and 1.3906 respectively, appreciating by 0.7% and depreciating by 0.2% respectively compared with last week; As the Bank of Canada led Taper, the Canadian dollar strengthened, closing at 1.2292, an appreciation of 1.7% from last week. This week, the average weekly price of gold in London was USD 1,774.8/oz, which was basically stable compared with last week, and the year-on-year increase decreased by 1.2pct to 3.6% compared with last week.</p><p><img src=\"http://img.zhitongcaijing.com/images/contentformat/c2e4e8d549f84a56f7d651806cc3a657.jpg\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"398\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><img src=\"http://img.zhitongcaijing.com/images/contentformat/09b461fbeb60aed3abf2e7ffd691b486.jpg\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"551\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> source：<a href=\"http://www.zhitongcaijing.com/content/detail/466474.html\">智通财经网</a></p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://img.zhitongcaijing.com/image/20210501/20210501134714_46528.png?x-oss-process=image/format,jpg/quality,Q_80/resize,w_250","relate_stocks":{".DJI":"道琼斯"},"source_url":"http://www.zhitongcaijing.com/content/detail/466474.html","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/6ca2dcdccfa2217fb20a0351f4efe814","article_id":"2132567538","content_text":"本文来自“申万宏源宏观”。摘要一、周观点：美国一季度GDP究竟是偏强还是偏弱?21Q1美国GDP同比0.4%，略低于市场预期。美国21Q1  GDP实际同比0.4%，疫情以来首次同比转正，环比1.6%。主要贡献因素为商品消费、服务消费、非住宅投资，显示出疫情改善+财政补贴下美国经济快速复苏。但主要拖累项为私人存货变动及进口，且实际上，美国一季度GDP增速是小幅低于市场预期的，显示市场对美国过度财政补贴导致生产恢复缓慢的认识不足，以及对疫情改善过度乐观的预期。居民消费：补贴推动商品消费，疫情缓和服务业修复。1)21Q1美国个人消费支出拉动GDP同比1.1个百分点，较20Q4大幅改善3个百分点。商品消费主要为耐用品推动，而服务消费对GDP拉动的改善幅度大于耐用品消费;2)月度高频角度，3月PCE同比8.5%，环比3.7%，在2月直接补贴真空期小幅回落后再度走强。显示3月1400美金补贴发放对于消费立竿见影的刺激效果，以及防控措施放松下服务消费的恢复。但从服务消费恢复的强度来看，实际上略弱于2-3月海外市场的过度乐观预期。投资：设备投资改善显著，利率抑制地产投资，补库存并未出现。21Q1国内私人投资拉动GDP同比0.8个百分点，较4季度小幅改善0.1个百分点。1)非住宅投资改善显示美国生产部门对经济前景预期有所改善;2)私人存货变动对21Q1  GDP同比贡献的下降是美国经济供需撕裂的体现，需求旺盛而生产恢复缓慢，从而导致库存下降，这也就意味着Q1大宗商品价格的走强并不能得到美国工业生产强劲、主动补库存逻辑的支持;3)住宅投资对GDP同比贡献基本保持稳定，环比增速则随前期美国利率的整体抬升而受到抑制。后续预计将随着利率的中期上行过程而持续降温。政府支出和净出口：补贴推动政府支出增加，供需缺口拉大导致进口高增。美国经济供需撕裂导致净出口对GDP拖累程度再度加深。21Q1净出口拖累GDP同比2个百分点，拖累程度较上20Q4扩大0.7个百分点。政府支出21Q1对GDP同比拉动0.1个百分点，主要由于美国政府向银行体系发放针对居民的直接补贴支票以及购买疫苗费用。预计美国经济复苏2季度为高点，关注疫情后续进展。我们认为未来美国经济恢复的强度依赖于疫苗接种进程，以及新冠疫情的扩散情况。在美国疫情持续缓和、服务业渐进修复的假设下，预计2季度为美国经济恢复高点，但由于过度补贴导致的供需撕裂情况将持续到9月份，年内美国经济恢复的强度或将不会如市场预期一般强劲。个人消费支出：预计1季度是商品消费高点，服务业消费将继续随着疫情缓和而渐进式恢复，但美国本土及海外国家传染性更强的病毒变种的传播也将影响后续服务业恢复强度;投资：非住宅投资的改善需要关注后续疫情进展。住宅投资将随着地产市场的逐步降温而走低;私人库存变动或要等到9月失业补贴结束之后得以改善。政府支出和净出口：政府支出预计将在4季度前持续对GDP同比形成正贡献。净出口将随着今年后期供需缺口的收窄而回到正常水平。二、全球宏观数据本周高频数据：美国耐用品新订单同环比均上升疫情：美国新增确诊病例下降。需求：日本零售销售同比大幅回升。供给与就业：美国耐用品新订单同环比均上升。贸易：美国3月进出口同比均大幅上升。通胀和大宗商品：油价小幅上行。房地产：美3月成屋签约销售指数上升。货币政策和汇率：美元指数下跌，黄金价格稳定。全球宏观日历：关注美国ISM制造业PMI正文一、周观点：美国一季度GDP究竟是偏强还是偏弱?1.21Q1美国GDP同比0.4%，略低于市场预期美国21Q1GDP实际同比0.4%，疫情以来首次同比转正，环比1.6%。主要贡献因素为商品消费、服务消费、非住宅投资，显示出疫情改善+财政补贴下美国经济相对较快的复苏。主要拖累项为私人存货变动及进口，且实际上，美国一季度GDP增速是小幅低于市场预期的，显示市场对美国过度财政补贴导致生产恢复缓慢的认识不足，以及对疫情改善过度乐观的预期。2.居民消费：补贴推动商品消费，疫情缓和服务业修复21Q1高达2000美金/人的财政补贴拉动商品消费;疫情缓和推动服务消费恢复，但略弱于前期海外市场乐观预期。1)从季度角度看，21Q1美国个人消费支出拉动GDP同比1.1个百分点，较20Q4大幅改善3个百分点，从4季度对GDP最大的拖累项一跃转为最大的贡献项，显示一季度同时具备1月600美金补贴以及3月开始发放的1400美金补贴对消费的刺激效果，以及疫情缓和下服务消费的渐次释放。2)而从月度高频角度，3月PCE同比达到8.5%，环比3.7%，在2月直接补贴真空期小幅回落后再度走强。其中，耐用品、服务消费同比增速再度提升，3月分别达到43.3%和4.8%，而非耐用品同比略有放缓(4.3%)，显示3月1400美金补贴发放对于消费立竿见影的刺激效果，以及防控措施放松下服务消费的恢复。但从服务消费恢复的强度来看，实际上略弱于2-3月海外市场的过度乐观预期。商品消费、服务消费共同驱动个人消费支出高增。1)商品消费主要为耐用品推动。21Q1商品消费对GDP拉动3.2个百分点，较20Q4改善1.5个百分点，主要归功于耐用品在一季度财政刺激下再度高增，21Q1耐用品对GDP贡献度较4季度大幅改善1.3个百分点，而非耐用品对GDP贡献度仅小幅改善0.3个百分点;2)服务消费对GDP拉动效果的改善幅度大于耐用品消费。21Q1服务消费对GDP虽然仍为-1.4%的负拉动，但已较上季度大幅改善1.6个百分点，改善幅度更甚于耐用品消费，显示出服务消费在财政补贴+疫情缓和双重因素下改善的弹性更大。3.投资：设备投资改善显著，利率抑制地产投资，补库存并未出现非住宅投资对GDP拉动效果大幅改善，私人存货转为拖累。21Q1国内私人投资拉动GDP同比0.8个百分点，较4季度小幅改善0.1个百分点。1)非住宅投资改善显示美国生产部门对经济前景预期有所改善。私人投资改善的主要贡献因素为非住宅投资(改善0.6个百分点)，其中主要来自于设备投资，显示制造业企业对经济恢复前景保持乐观。2)私人存货变动对21Q1  GDP同比贡献的下降是美国经济供需撕裂的体现，需求旺盛而生产恢复缓慢，从而导致库存下降，这也就意味着Q1大宗商品价格的走强并不能得到美国工业生产强劲、主动补库存逻辑的支持。拖累私人投资的主要因素为私人存货变动(拖累0.4个百分点)。3)住宅投资对GDP同比贡献基本保持稳定，环比增速则随前期美国利率的整体抬升而受到抑制。后续预计将随着利率的中期上行过程而持续降温。21Q1住宅投资对GDP的拉动保持稳定，但随着21年以来抵押贷款利率的逐步上行，美国房地产市场已经有所降温，住宅营建支出、成屋销售已经有所放缓，预计后续住宅投资对GDP的拉动效果将逐步下降。4.政府支出和净出口：补贴推动政府支出增加，供需缺口拉大导致进口高增美国经济供需撕裂导致净出口对GDP拖累程度再度加深。21Q1净出口拖累GDP同比2个百分点，拖累程度较上20Q4扩大0.7个百分点。1)出口拖累1个百分点，但已较上个季度改善0.2个百分点，显示美国工业生产的小幅恢复，但相比个人消费支出3.0个百分点的改善幅度仍然相形见绌，实际体现的是美国过度财政补贴下21Q1供需缺口的拉大;2)而进口在21Q1拖累GDP同比1.0个百分点，拖累程度较上季度大幅扩大0.9个百分点，美国供需缺口拉大的直接后果便是进口规模的扩大。政府支出21Q1对GDP同比拉动0.1个百分点，主要由于美国政府向银行体系发放针对居民的直接补贴支票以及购买疫苗费用。5.预计美国经济复苏2季度为高点，关注疫情后续进展展望未来，我们认为未来美国经济恢复的强度依赖于疫苗接种进程，以及新冠疫情的扩散情况。在美国疫情持续缓和、服务业渐进修复的假设下，预计2季度为美国经济恢复高点，但由于过度补贴导致的供需撕裂情况将持续到9月份，年内美国经济恢复的强度或将不会如市场预期一般强劲。个人消费支出：1)虽然21Q1商品消费显示出极为强劲的势头，但我们预计1季度已经是商品消费高点，后续将随着补贴退潮而逐步回落;2)服务业消费将继续随着疫情缓和而渐进式恢复，但3月以来全球疫情有所反弹，特别是在欧洲国家以及新兴国家，同时美国本土及海外国家传染性更强的病毒变种的传播也将影响后续服务业恢复强度。投资：1)21Q1非住宅投资的改善主要驱动力为经济向好预期，而从当前时点来看，全球疫情是决定经济恢复强度的核心因素，需要关注后续疫情进展;2)住宅投资将随着地产市场的逐步降温而走低;3)私人库存变动，即补库存的力度将依赖于美国供需撕裂的现状是否能够缓和，从当前来看，或要等到9月失业补贴结束之后，美国供需两端才能出现显著的弥合趋势，进而带动库存投资。政府支出和净出口：1)随着失业补贴在2、3季度的持续发放，政府支出预计将在4季度前持续对GDP同比形成正贡献，而如果美国就业计划或美国家庭计划能够在年内落地，也将提振政府支出水平;净出口方面，出口将依赖于美国工业生产恢复的进度，如上文所说，或要到4季度才能得到提振，进口则恰恰相反，将随着今年后期供需缺口的收窄而回落到正常水平。二、全球宏观数据：美国新增确诊病例下降1.疫情：美国新增确诊病例下降本周美国新增确诊病例下降。美国新增确诊7日平均下降至5.3万人以上。截止4月29日，全球新冠疫情累计确诊超过1.5亿，累计死亡病例314万人，累计康复病例1.2亿人。本周四天(4月27日-4月30日)美国、英国分别新增确诊病例22万人和0.9万人。截止4月28日，全球范围内平均每百人接种新冠疫苗最多的是以色列，达每百人121.1针，美国每百人70.2针，英国每百人70.9针。截止4月28日，全球范围内完全接种疫苗的人占人口比例最高的是以色列，达58.7%，美国、英国分别为29.3%、20.7%。2.需求：日本零售销售同比大幅回升日本零售销售和批发销售同比均大幅上行。日本3月零售销售指数同比5.3%，其中零售中纺织服装同比15.8%，3月批发销售指数同比1.0%。韩国3月零售销售同比持续增长，半耐用品消费大幅增长。韩国3月零售销售同比较上月上升3.5个百分点至13.5%，其中半耐用品消费增速最快，同比35.5%;耐用品同比13.6%，非耐用品同比6.5%。3.供给与就业：美国耐用品新订单同环比均上升美国耐用品库存上升，新订单增速同环比均上升。3月美国耐用品库存达4318.4亿美元，环比上升1.0%，同比增长1.7%。美国3月耐用品新订单环比上升0.5%，同比大幅上升25%。日本3月失业率下降至2.6%。3月日本失业率较上月下降0.3个百分点至2.6%。韩国工业生产指数同环比均上升，工业持续回升。韩国3月工业生产指数同比上升5.7%，环比上升0.8%至112.6。美国工业材料生产持续上升。1)截止4月24日当周，美国周度粗钢产量同比上升43.6%，产能利用率较上周小幅上升0.4个百分点至78.4%;2)截止4月23日，美国炼油厂可运营能力利用率上升0.4个百分点至85.4%。美国当周初请失业金人数小幅下降，持续申领失业金人数小幅上升。4月24日当周美国初请失业金人数达55.3万人，环比上周下降1.3万人;4月17日当周持续申领失业金人数达366万人，环比上升0.9万人。4.贸易：美国3月进出口同比均大幅上升美国3月进出口同比均大幅上升。美国3月出口增速较上月大幅上升16.5个百分点至11.5%，进口同比20.6%。美国3月份商品贸易差额为-905.9亿美元。5.通胀和大宗商品：油价小幅上行4月28日当周EIA原油库存上升900万桶，美国原油产量小幅下降10万桶/日至1090万桶/日。截止4月29日，WTI原油周均价上升至63.2美元/桶;布油周均价上升至66.6美元/桶。6.房地产：美国3月成屋签约销售指数同比上升美国2月标普/CS房价指数连续8个月上涨。2月美国标普/CS房价指数同比上升11.9%至246.0，连续8个月上涨。美国3月成屋签约销售指数同比大幅23.3%，环比1.9%。日本3月新屋开工、营建订单大幅上行。日本3月新屋开工同比1.5%，环比18.1%，3月营建订单数同比12.5%，环比192.7%，涨幅达到近一年最高。美国5年期抵押贷款利率下降，15年期、30年期抵押贷款利率上升。截止4月29日当周，5年期抵押贷款利率下降0.2个百分点至2.6%，15年期、30年期抵押贷款利率分别上升至2.3%和3.0%。截止4月23日当周，美国MBA市场指数下降18.2至706.6，房市热度小幅回落。7.货币政策和汇率：美元指数下跌，黄金价格基本稳定本周美联储议息会议召开，鲍威尔发言偏鸽，美元指数下跌，黄金价格基本稳定。当地时间4月28日，美联储公布议息会议声明，鲍威尔在会后新闻发布会上表示看到实质性进展仍需一些时间，在此之前会维持当前的资产购买规模，现在还未到讨论Taper的时间，美元指数持续下行。截至4月29日，美元指数报收90.6140，较上周下行0.7%;欧元、英镑兑美元汇率(英镑汇率数据截至28日)分别报收1.2129、1.3906，分别较上周升值0.7%、贬值0.2%;由于加拿大央行率先Taper，加元走强，报收1.2292，较上周升值1.7%。本周伦敦金周均价1774.8美元/盎司，较上周基本稳定，同比涨幅较上周下行1.2pct至3.6%。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"ZNmain":0.9,"UBmain":0.9,"ZBmain":0.9,"ZTmain":0.9,"ZFmain":0.9,".DJI":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1806,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":101197072,"gmtCreate":1619856491896,"gmtModify":1704335809145,"author":{"id":"3573688531814941","authorId":"3573688531814941","name":"ccssyy","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/788037228f49cc166fdc5223f0073775","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3573688531814941","idStr":"3573688531814941"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"?&nbsp;","listText":"?&nbsp;","text":"?","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/101197072","repostId":"2131556829","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1588,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":132073694,"gmtCreate":1622050102018,"gmtModify":1704178561059,"author":{"id":"3573688531814941","authorId":"3573688531814941","name":"ccssyy","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/788037228f49cc166fdc5223f0073775","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3573688531814941","idStr":"3573688531814941"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Hi&nbsp;","listText":"Hi&nbsp;","text":"Hi","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/132073694","repostId":"2138519408","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"2138519408","kind":"highlight","pubTimestamp":1622011111,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/2138519408?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2021-05-26 14:38","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"Three factors suggest that the \"mercury retrograde period\" of tech stocks is still not over","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2138519408","media":"Wind资讯","summary":"随着市场对通胀的担忧有所消化，纳斯达克指数自5月19日以来反弹。但分析师表示，未来价格的波动因素、科技股当前估值及资金流向均表明，当前美股科技公司的回调尚未结束。\n4月29日，纳斯达克综合指数触及14","content":"<p>The Nasdaq has rebounded since May 19 as market concerns about inflation have been digested. However, analysts said that the volatility of future prices, the current valuation of technology stocks and the flow of funds all indicate that the current correction of U.S. technology companies is not over yet.</p><p>On April 29, the Nasdaq Composite Index hit a record high of 14,211. Since then, the index has pulled back nearly 3%. While the index's gains of more than 1.5% on Monday may reassure some investors, the macro drivers of tech stocks that have led the market over the past 10 years remain challenging.</p><p>\"We see nothing wrong with the fundamentals of the tech space, but we believe that this is an overheld, overvalued part of the market that is a wrong macro backdrop for this segment of the market right now,\" said RBC strategist Lori Calvasina.</p><p>The backdrop for the current market is that growth and inflation are accelerating as the economy reopens after a pandemic-induced shock. As a result, industries and investment styles that benefit more from accelerated GDP growth are preferred compared to areas and investment styles that can gain growth in other environments.</p><p>Led by Parag Thatte<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/DB\">Deutsche Bank</a>Strategists released a report on Friday showing that investors continue to put their money into stocks and fixed-income products seen as inflation winners, such as TIPS, energy, materials and financial stocks.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f3a6d3d53b8204d51b0cd1ebdb3c8fb7\" tg-width=\"796\" tg-height=\"691\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>Energy, materials, and financial stocks also performed well in cyclical trading, value trading, and reopening trading. Commodity prices have soared, as have expectations for infrastructure. Higher economic growth combined with higher interest rates has energized the financial system.</p><p>Funding into this space comes from investors who are reducing tech deals. Calvasina said: \"We think inflationary pressures are already there, and the tech sector is one of the biggest sources of funding to get back to reflation... so we don't think this is the best time to get back to this space.\"</p><p>In a report published last week, Calvasina and her team delved into the shift in investor style from different angles, trying to explore whether the pullback at Big Tech has been sufficient. Several major reasons indicate that the current pullback of technology companies is not over yet.</p><p>Calvasina noted that the current valuation of tech stocks remains on the high side relative to the rest of the market and the historical valuation of tech stocks. As we mentioned above, the inflow picture has not been encouraging, with tech ETFs seeing flat inflows this year.</p><p><b>Economic data disappoints markets</b></p><p>Consumer confidence was lower than expected in April, and the Conference Board's overall confidence index fell more than expected last month. The short-term income outlook is pressured, at least to some extent, by inflation concerns, the Council noted. A separate report released Tuesday morning showed that home prices rose by the most in 15 years in March, highlighting the supply-demand mismatch in more key areas of the economy pushing prices higher.</p><p>However, some members of the Federal Open Market Committee (fomc) suggested that market participants may not need to worry that rising prices will contribute to recent changes in monetary policy in the short term. St. Louis Federal Reserve Bank President James Bullard on Monday<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/YHOO\">Yahoo</a>Finance said he believes the rise in inflation is \"mostly temporary\" and that the Fed \"has not yet reached it\" when it discusses tapering asset purchases.</p><p>Esther George, chairwoman of the Kansas City Federal Reserve Bank, said in a separate commentary that she did not want the Fed to \"rely too heavily on historical relationships and dynamics in judging the inflation outlook\". Fed officials have recently made a series of remarks downplaying the need for short-term monetary policy measures that could dampen market rallies.</p><p>While trading over the past two days has given investors at least a brief respite after last week's stock market sell-off, some strategists remain cautious about stocks given that concerns about inflation remain high.</p><p>Shawn Cruz, senior market strategist at TD Ameritrade, told Yahoo Finance on Monday, \"Now everyone knows that they should be worried about inflationary pressures and the impact this could have on monetary policy or corporate profitability.\"\"If they decide to keep the rising input costs on the balance sheet, that's fine, at least on the consumer side, we won't see inflation rise, but when earnings come out (in the second quarter), we may see higher margins.\"</p><p>Others have also pointed out that the latest technology-led advances can be short-lived. Calvasina said: \"We still believe inflationary pressures exist, with people moving money away from tech stocks to other sectors, such as financials, energy stocks and materials stocks. We don't see these inflationary pressures abating in the near term.\"</p>","source":"wind","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Three factors suggest that the \"mercury retrograde period\" of tech stocks is still not over</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nThree factors suggest that the \"mercury retrograde period\" of tech stocks is still not over\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">Wind资讯</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-05-26 14:38</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>The Nasdaq has rebounded since May 19 as market concerns about inflation have been digested. However, analysts said that the volatility of future prices, the current valuation of technology stocks and the flow of funds all indicate that the current correction of U.S. technology companies is not over yet.</p><p>On April 29, the Nasdaq Composite Index hit a record high of 14,211. Since then, the index has pulled back nearly 3%. While the index's gains of more than 1.5% on Monday may reassure some investors, the macro drivers of tech stocks that have led the market over the past 10 years remain challenging.</p><p>\"We see nothing wrong with the fundamentals of the tech space, but we believe that this is an overheld, overvalued part of the market that is a wrong macro backdrop for this segment of the market right now,\" said RBC strategist Lori Calvasina.</p><p>The backdrop for the current market is that growth and inflation are accelerating as the economy reopens after a pandemic-induced shock. As a result, industries and investment styles that benefit more from accelerated GDP growth are preferred compared to areas and investment styles that can gain growth in other environments.</p><p>Led by Parag Thatte<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/DB\">Deutsche Bank</a>Strategists released a report on Friday showing that investors continue to put their money into stocks and fixed-income products seen as inflation winners, such as TIPS, energy, materials and financial stocks.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f3a6d3d53b8204d51b0cd1ebdb3c8fb7\" tg-width=\"796\" tg-height=\"691\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>Energy, materials, and financial stocks also performed well in cyclical trading, value trading, and reopening trading. Commodity prices have soared, as have expectations for infrastructure. Higher economic growth combined with higher interest rates has energized the financial system.</p><p>Funding into this space comes from investors who are reducing tech deals. Calvasina said: \"We think inflationary pressures are already there, and the tech sector is one of the biggest sources of funding to get back to reflation... so we don't think this is the best time to get back to this space.\"</p><p>In a report published last week, Calvasina and her team delved into the shift in investor style from different angles, trying to explore whether the pullback at Big Tech has been sufficient. Several major reasons indicate that the current pullback of technology companies is not over yet.</p><p>Calvasina noted that the current valuation of tech stocks remains on the high side relative to the rest of the market and the historical valuation of tech stocks. As we mentioned above, the inflow picture has not been encouraging, with tech ETFs seeing flat inflows this year.</p><p><b>Economic data disappoints markets</b></p><p>Consumer confidence was lower than expected in April, and the Conference Board's overall confidence index fell more than expected last month. The short-term income outlook is pressured, at least to some extent, by inflation concerns, the Council noted. A separate report released Tuesday morning showed that home prices rose by the most in 15 years in March, highlighting the supply-demand mismatch in more key areas of the economy pushing prices higher.</p><p>However, some members of the Federal Open Market Committee (fomc) suggested that market participants may not need to worry that rising prices will contribute to recent changes in monetary policy in the short term. St. Louis Federal Reserve Bank President James Bullard on Monday<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/YHOO\">Yahoo</a>Finance said he believes the rise in inflation is \"mostly temporary\" and that the Fed \"has not yet reached it\" when it discusses tapering asset purchases.</p><p>Esther George, chairwoman of the Kansas City Federal Reserve Bank, said in a separate commentary that she did not want the Fed to \"rely too heavily on historical relationships and dynamics in judging the inflation outlook\". Fed officials have recently made a series of remarks downplaying the need for short-term monetary policy measures that could dampen market rallies.</p><p>While trading over the past two days has given investors at least a brief respite after last week's stock market sell-off, some strategists remain cautious about stocks given that concerns about inflation remain high.</p><p>Shawn Cruz, senior market strategist at TD Ameritrade, told Yahoo Finance on Monday, \"Now everyone knows that they should be worried about inflationary pressures and the impact this could have on monetary policy or corporate profitability.\"\"If they decide to keep the rising input costs on the balance sheet, that's fine, at least on the consumer side, we won't see inflation rise, but when earnings come out (in the second quarter), we may see higher margins.\"</p><p>Others have also pointed out that the latest technology-led advances can be short-lived. Calvasina said: \"We still believe inflationary pressures exist, with people moving money away from tech stocks to other sectors, such as financials, energy stocks and materials stocks. We don't see these inflationary pressures abating in the near term.\"</p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> source：<a href=\"http://www.zhitongcaijing.com/content/detail/481817.html\">Wind资讯</a></p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9d770a193c6a88684d0203fd2ec91e4a","relate_stocks":{".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite"},"source_url":"http://www.zhitongcaijing.com/content/detail/481817.html","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2138519408","content_text":"随着市场对通胀的担忧有所消化，纳斯达克指数自5月19日以来反弹。但分析师表示，未来价格的波动因素、科技股当前估值及资金流向均表明，当前美股科技公司的回调尚未结束。\n4月29日，纳斯达克综合指数触及14211点的纪录高点。自那以来，该指数回调已接近3%。尽管该指数周一超过1.5%的涨幅可能会让一些投资者放心，但过去10年引领市场的科技股的宏观驱动力仍面临挑战。\nRBC策略师Lori Calvasina表示：“我们认为科技领域的基本面没有任何问题，但我们认为，这是市场上被过度持有、估值过高的一部分，目前对这部分市场来说，这是一个错误的宏观背景。”\n当前市场的背景是，随着经济在一场疫情引发的冲击后重新开放，增长和通胀正在加速。因此，与能够在其他环境中获得增长的领域和投资风格相比，从GDP加速增长中获益更多的行业和投资风格更受青睐。\n以Parag Thatte为首的德意志银行策略师上周五发布报告显示，投资者继续将资金投入被视为通胀赢家的股票和固定收益产品，如TIPS、能源、材料和金融类股。\n\n能源、材料和金融类股在周期性交易、价值交易和重新开放交易中也有很好的表现。大宗商品价格飙升，对基础设施的期望也在上升。更高的经济增长与更高的利率相结合，为金融体系注入了活力。\n进入这一领域的资金来自于减少科技交易的投资者。Calvasina称：\"我们认为通胀压力已经存在，科技行业是重返通货再膨胀的最大资金来源之一……所以我们认为现在还不是回到这个领域的最佳时机。”\n在上周发表的一份报告中，Calvasina和她的团队从不同的角度深入研究了投资者风格的转变，试图探索大型科技公司的回调是否已经充分。而几大原因表明，目前科技公司的回调尚未结束。\nCalvasina指出，相对于市场其他部分和科技股的历史估值，科技股当前的估值仍然偏高。正如我们上面提到的，资金流入情况并不令人鼓舞，今年科技ETF的资金流入持平。\n经济数据令市场失望\n4月份消费者信心指数低于预期，美国经济谘商会(Conference Board)上月的整体信心指数跌幅超过预期。美国经济谘商会指出，至少在一定程度上，短期收入前景受到通胀担忧的压力。周二上午公布的另一份报告显示，3月份房价创下15年来的最大涨幅，突显出经济中更多关键领域的供需不匹配推高了房价。\n不过，美国联邦公开市场委员会(fomc)部分成员暗示，市场人士可能不需要担心物价上涨会在短期内促成货币政策的近期变动。圣路易斯联邦储备银行总裁布拉德(James Bullard)周一对雅虎财经表示，他认为通胀上升\"大多是暂时的\"，而美联储在讨论缩减资产购买规模时\"还没有达到\"。\n堪萨斯城联邦储备银行主席埃斯特•乔治在另一篇评论中表示，她不希望美联储\"在判断通胀前景时过度依赖历史关系和动态\"。美联储官员最近发表了一系列讲话，淡化了采取短期货币政策措施的必要性，这些措施可能会抑制市场涨势。\n尽管在上周的股市抛售之后，过去两天的交易给投资者提供了至少短暂的喘息机会，但鉴于对通胀的担忧仍居高不下，一些策略师仍对股市持谨慎态度。\nTD Ameritrade高级市场策略师Shawn Cruz周一对雅虎财经表示，\"现在所有人都知道，他们应该担心通胀压力，以及这可能对货币政策或企业盈利能力造成的影响。\"“如果他们决定将不断上升的投入成本保留在资产负债表上，那很好，至少在消费者方面，我们不会看到通胀上升，但(第二季度)盈利出来时，我们可能会看到利润率上升。”\n其他人也指出，最新的技术引领的进步可能是短暂的。Calvasina表示：“我们仍认为通胀压力存在，人们将资金从科技股移至其他板块，如金融股、能源股和材料股。我们不认为这些通胀压力会在短期内减轻。”","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{".IXIC":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":4245,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":262690950426928,"gmtCreate":1705167581334,"gmtModify":1705167585302,"author":{"id":"3573688531814941","authorId":"3573688531814941","name":"ccssyy","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/788037228f49cc166fdc5223f0073775","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3573688531814941","idStr":"3573688531814941"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"🐂🐂🐂🐂🐂🐂🐂🐂🐂🐂🐂🐂🐂🐂🐂🐂🐂🐂🐂🐂🐂🐂🐂🐂🐂🐂🐂🐂🐂🐂🐂🐂🐂🐂🐂🐂🐂🐂🐂🐂🐂🐂🐂🐂🐂🐂🐂🐂🐂🐂🐂","listText":"🐂🐂🐂🐂🐂🐂🐂🐂🐂🐂🐂🐂🐂🐂🐂🐂🐂🐂🐂🐂🐂🐂🐂🐂🐂🐂🐂🐂🐂🐂🐂🐂🐂🐂🐂🐂🐂🐂🐂🐂🐂🐂🐂🐂🐂🐂🐂🐂🐂🐂🐂","text":"🐂🐂🐂🐂🐂🐂🐂🐂🐂🐂🐂🐂🐂🐂🐂🐂🐂🐂🐂🐂🐂🐂🐂🐂🐂🐂🐂🐂🐂🐂🐂🐂🐂🐂🐂🐂🐂🐂🐂🐂🐂🐂🐂🐂🐂🐂🐂🐂🐂🐂🐂","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/262690950426928","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":3796,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":258903103000576,"gmtCreate":1704242648195,"gmtModify":1704242651687,"author":{"id":"3573688531814941","authorId":"3573688531814941","name":"ccssyy","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/788037228f49cc166fdc5223f0073775","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3573688531814941","idStr":"3573688531814941"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"666","listText":"666","text":"666","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/258903103000576","repostId":"248312805347464","repostType":1,"repost":{"id":248312805347464,"gmtCreate":1701660745864,"gmtModify":1703059991513,"author":{"id":"3527667667103859","authorId":"3527667667103859","name":"TigerEvents","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/c266ef25181ace18bec1262357bbe1a8","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3527667667103859","idStr":"3527667667103859"},"themes":[],"title":"🐅🌟 TIGER TYCOON CHALLENGE IS ON! 🌟🐅","htmlText":"Hey Tycoons! 🎩💼 Ready to embark on the adventure of a lifetime? Introducing the Tiger Tycoon Challenge – where fortunes are made, and USD 888 worth of prizes await the boldest players! 🏰🌈🎯 Objective: Build your empire, score big points, and unlock fabulous rewards!💰 Gold Rush: Grab those shiny gold coins every time you pass by it! Cha-ching! 💰💵🏠 Construct &amp; Conquer: Step on an empty tile to construct a building to gain points! 🏰🏆 Prizes Galore: Hit the prize tile to claim your treasure – it could be anything! 🎁✨🔄 Lucky Draw: Land on the draw tile and brace yourself! You might move forward, backward, or even unlock a secret power! 🔄🔮🚀 Airdrop Alert: Keep your eyes on the sky! Periodically, the Tiger Tycoon map will rain down special rewards like stocks, vouchers, and more. Fastest finge","listText":"Hey Tycoons! 🎩💼 Ready to embark on the adventure of a lifetime? Introducing the Tiger Tycoon Challenge – where fortunes are made, and USD 888 worth of prizes await the boldest players! 🏰🌈🎯 Objective: Build your empire, score big points, and unlock fabulous rewards!💰 Gold Rush: Grab those shiny gold coins every time you pass by it! Cha-ching! 💰💵🏠 Construct &amp; Conquer: Step on an empty tile to construct a building to gain points! 🏰🏆 Prizes Galore: Hit the prize tile to claim your treasure – it could be anything! 🎁✨🔄 Lucky Draw: Land on the draw tile and brace yourself! You might move forward, backward, or even unlock a secret power! 🔄🔮🚀 Airdrop Alert: Keep your eyes on the sky! Periodically, the Tiger Tycoon map will rain down special rewards like stocks, vouchers, and more. Fastest finge","text":"Hey Tycoons! 🎩💼 Ready to embark on the adventure of a lifetime? Introducing the Tiger Tycoon Challenge – where fortunes are made, and USD 888 worth of prizes await the boldest players! 🏰🌈🎯 Objective: Build your empire, score big points, and unlock fabulous rewards!💰 Gold Rush: Grab those shiny gold coins every time you pass by it! Cha-ching! 💰💵🏠 Construct & Conquer: Step on an empty tile to construct a building to gain points! 🏰🏆 Prizes Galore: Hit the prize tile to claim your treasure – it could be anything! 🎁✨🔄 Lucky Draw: Land on the draw tile and brace yourself! You might move forward, backward, or even unlock a secret power! 🔄🔮🚀 Airdrop Alert: Keep your eyes on the sky! Periodically, the Tiger Tycoon map will rain down special rewards like stocks, vouchers, and more. Fastest finge","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":2,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/248312805347464","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":0,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":3390,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":251274818994280,"gmtCreate":1702383715547,"gmtModify":1702383718424,"author":{"id":"3573688531814941","authorId":"3573688531814941","name":"ccssyy","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/788037228f49cc166fdc5223f0073775","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3573688531814941","idStr":"3573688531814941"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/PLTR\">$Palantir Technologies Inc.(PLTR)$ </a>&nbsp;","listText":"<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/PLTR\">$Palantir Technologies Inc.(PLTR)$ </a>&nbsp;","text":"$Palantir Technologies Inc.(PLTR)$","images":[{"img":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/4eca804b1d7bfd8510044aad5ae3a8e9","width":"906","height":"1406"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/251274818994280","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":3189,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9916384387,"gmtCreate":1664511428849,"gmtModify":1676537469196,"author":{"id":"3573688531814941","authorId":"3573688531814941","name":"ccssyy","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/788037228f49cc166fdc5223f0073775","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3573688531814941","idStr":"3573688531814941"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/SQQQ\">$纳指三倍做空ETF(SQQQ)$</a><v-v data-views=\"1\"></v-v>","listText":"<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/SQQQ\">$纳指三倍做空ETF(SQQQ)$</a><v-v data-views=\"1\"></v-v>","text":"$纳指三倍做空ETF(SQQQ)$","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9916384387","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2817,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0}],"lives":[]}