磐石533 personal page - To The Moon

磐石533

磐石533

物以稀为贵

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2021-08-27

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CITIC Securities: Focus Media's performance has recovered strongly, optimistic about the company's core ladder media traffic value

2021-08-20

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A shares are fierce! Which Chinese stocks is Morgan Stanley optimistic about in the second half of the year?

2021-08-18

12.5➗23.75×10=5.26%

Vanke Enterprise (02202. HK) plans to distribute 10 annual A shares for RMB 12.5. The equity registration date is August 24

2021-05-22

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@小虎AV: 【60秒回顧“雜交水稻之父”袁隆平一生他用一顆種子改變了世界】雜交水稻之父、中國工程院院士袁隆平因多器官功能衰竭於2021年5月22日13時07分在長沙逝世，享年91歲。袁隆平1930年9月1日生於北京，江西德安人。1953年袁隆平畢業於西南農學院，分配到湖南安江農校任教。2000年，袁隆平獲得國家最高科學技術獎。2019年9月，袁隆平被授予國家最高榮譽勳章“共和國勳章”。一分鐘回顧袁隆平生平，他用一顆種子改變了世界。[默哀] 尋夢環遊記裏有句臺詞是：死亡不是生命的終點，遺忘纔是，我會記得你。$上證指數(000001.SH)$

2021-03-25

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Ministry of Commerce: Pure white and flawless Xinjiang cotton cannot be discredited and tarnished by any force

2021-03-12

1.595%

CICC Overseas: Has the short-term shock of interest rates passed?

2021-03-06

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2021-02-10

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2021-02-08

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Why U.S. interest rates are only likely to rise slightly in 2021

2021-02-06

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@GPLP犀牛财经:年輕人正如何向“第四消費時代”過渡

2021-02-03

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2021-01-31

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@景辰财经:華爾街公然不要臉，海航破產，薇婭做私募，亂了，都亂了……

2021-01-31

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@市值观察:財姥爺丨尋找A股中的“隱形冠軍”

2021-01-25

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In the next 10 years, the investment market will focus on three major directions

2021-01-25

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The company's advertiser structure continues to be optimized, and the cost continues to improve. We believe that the company will maintain a good prosperity, and the long-term offline traffic portal and brand media value will be stable, and the \"buy\" rating will be maintained.</p><p></body></html></p>","source":"sina_symbol","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>CITIC Securities: Focus Media's performance has recovered strongly, optimistic about the company's core ladder media traffic value</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nCITIC Securities: Focus Media's performance has recovered strongly, optimistic about the company's core ladder media traffic value\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">格隆汇APP</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-08-27 08:30</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><html><body>Gelonghui August 27th<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/600030\">CITIC Securities</a>Pointed out that,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/002027\">Focus media</a>In the first half of 2021, advertising placement recovered significantly year-on-year, and building media revenue continued to improve, achieving revenue of 7.33 billion yuan (YoY+58.9%) and net profit attributable to the parent company of 2.90 billion yuan (YoY+252.2%), corresponding to a net profit margin attributable to the parent company of 39.6%. The company's advertiser structure continues to be optimized, and the cost continues to improve. We believe that the company will maintain a good prosperity, and the long-term offline traffic portal and brand media value will be stable, and the \"buy\" rating will be maintained.</p><p></body></html></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> source：<a href=\"https://cj.sina.cn/article/normal_detail?url=https://k.sina.cn/article_5115326071_130e5ae7702001g6vy.html\">格隆汇APP</a></p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/753c9aba3202037bc97463c545d5d015","relate_stocks":{"600030":"中信证券","002027":"分众传媒","06030":"中信证券"},"source_url":"https://cj.sina.cn/article/normal_detail?url=https://k.sina.cn/article_5115326071_130e5ae7702001g6vy.html","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2162144460","content_text":"格隆汇8月27日丨中信证券指出，分众传媒2021年上半年广告投放同比显著恢复，楼宇媒体收入持续改善，实现营收73.3亿元(YoY+58.9%)，实现归母净利润29.0亿元(YoY+252.2%)，对应归母净利率39.6%。公司广告主结构持续优化，成本持续改善，我们认为公司将保持较好的景气度，长期线下流量入口与品牌媒体价值稳固，维持“买入”评级。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"600030":1,"06030":1,"002027":1}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2241,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":836965690,"gmtCreate":1629448188410,"gmtModify":1676530044511,"author":{"id":"3573863078476577","authorId":"3573863078476577","name":"磐石533","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3acfdf718b918510c617d15517144155","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3573863078476577","authorIdStr":"3573863078476577"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"?","listText":"?","text":"?","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/836965690","repostId":"1186223315","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"1186223315","kind":"news","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"为用户提供金融资讯、行情、数据，旨在帮助投资者理解世界，做投资决策。","home_visible":1,"media_name":"老虎资讯综合","id":"102","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba"},"pubTimestamp":1621928567,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1186223315?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2021-05-25 15:42","market":"hk","language":"zh","title":"A shares are fierce! Which Chinese stocks is Morgan Stanley optimistic about in the second half of the year?","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1186223315","media":"老虎资讯综合","summary":"A股今日（5月25日）迎来久违爆发！沪指大涨2.4%，报收3581.34点；深证成指涨2.34%，报收14846.45点；创业板指涨2.79%，报收3227.36点。金融、白酒、军工等板块大涨，北向资","content":"<p>A-shares ushered in a long-lost outbreak today (May 25)! The Shanghai Composite Index rose 2.4% to close at 3581.34 points; The Shenzhen Component Index rose 2.34% to close at 14846.45 points; The ChiNext Index rose 2.79% to close at 3227.36 points. Finance, liquor, military industry and other sectors rose sharply, with the net inflow of northbound funds reaching 24.774 billion yuan, a record high; The turnover of Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets exceeded 1 trillion yuan, the first time since February 24. The market is rejoicing, and there is a great potential for a bull market to come again. So, what is the judgment of major foreign banks on how the Chinese market will go next? Which stocks are you bullish on?</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/35b0e9233512f5c767aadc4b0af96f50\" tg-width=\"840\" tg-height=\"470\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MS\">Morgan Stanley</a>Analysts were so cautious about the Chinese market that they downgraded some once hot sectors and turned their attention to some individual stocks.</p><p>Multiple uncertainties such as inflation, tighter monetary policy and stricter regulation of Chinese technology companies will weigh on the overall market, Morgan Stanley Asia equity strategists wrote in their mid-year outlook for Chinese stocks released on May 17. In this environment, one of the few certainties is that pricing power will be a key driver of outperformance this year. That makes stock picking a key investment strategy, they say.</p><p>Here are five stocks that Morgan Stanley is optimistic about with double-digit stock gains in mainland China and Hong Kong markets:</p><p><b><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/600176\">Chinese boulders</a></b>-The Shanghai Stock Exchange-listed fiberglass maker is one of the top-quality companies screened by Morgan Stanley, which analysts expect to benefit from pricing power. Morgan Stanley expects its stock price to rise from 17.30 yuan per share to about 30.98 yuan, an increase of 79.1%.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c61362ed37c32b5b4b7973891f1aa85e\" tg-width=\"840\" tg-height=\"470\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><b><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/01128\">Wynn Macau</a></b>-The Hong Kong-listed company is a leader in Macau's gaming industry and one of the few companies where Morgan Stanley expects corporate pricing power to improve. Morgan Stanley expects the stock to rise 56.7% to about HK $21 per share at a price of HK $13.40 per share.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/274c3fe87bffaf7f47d24a3d43193110\" tg-width=\"840\" tg-height=\"470\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><b><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/300776\">Dier Laser</a></b>-This Wuhan-based company develops and sells laser technology to solar panel manufacturers. Morgan Stanley expects its share price to rise from 107.2 yuan per share to 174.09 yuan, an increase of 62.4%.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c580417db8c48b873bb2c248e62b0bf2\" tg-width=\"840\" tg-height=\"470\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><b><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/002352\">SF Holdings</a></b>-This Chinese express delivery giant belongs to the \"industrial\" category of enterprises that Morgan Stanley expects to benefit from rising inflation. As private spending recovers, these strategists also like consumer services and durable goods. But they downgraded the e-commerce industry to underweight. Morgan Stanley predicts that SF's share price will rise from 62.90 yuan per share to 95.73 yuan, an increase of 52.2%.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/bfff1fbd2280ee4943fc7c6960e51686\" tg-width=\"840\" tg-height=\"470\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><b><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/002027\">Focus media</a></b>-The Chinese offline advertising giant has focused its strategy on elevator advertising. Morgan Stanley's report says advertising is one of the sectors that is seeing price increases right now. Its share price is expected to rise from 9.90 yuan per share to 14.10 yuan, an increase of 42.4%.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/dd5d726c14a4503b2be6795cab6e9c36\" tg-width=\"840\" tg-height=\"470\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>A shares are fierce! Which Chinese stocks is Morgan Stanley optimistic about in the second half of the year?</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nA shares are fierce! Which Chinese stocks is Morgan Stanley optimistic about in the second half of the year?\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/102\">\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">老虎资讯综合 </p>\n<p class=\"h-time smaller\">2021-05-25 15:42</p>\n</div>\n</a>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>A-shares ushered in a long-lost outbreak today (May 25)! The Shanghai Composite Index rose 2.4% to close at 3581.34 points; The Shenzhen Component Index rose 2.34% to close at 14846.45 points; The ChiNext Index rose 2.79% to close at 3227.36 points. Finance, liquor, military industry and other sectors rose sharply, with the net inflow of northbound funds reaching 24.774 billion yuan, a record high; The turnover of Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets exceeded 1 trillion yuan, the first time since February 24. The market is rejoicing, and there is a great potential for a bull market to come again. So, what is the judgment of major foreign banks on how the Chinese market will go next? Which stocks are you bullish on?</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/35b0e9233512f5c767aadc4b0af96f50\" tg-width=\"840\" tg-height=\"470\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MS\">Morgan Stanley</a>Analysts were so cautious about the Chinese market that they downgraded some once hot sectors and turned their attention to some individual stocks.</p><p>Multiple uncertainties such as inflation, tighter monetary policy and stricter regulation of Chinese technology companies will weigh on the overall market, Morgan Stanley Asia equity strategists wrote in their mid-year outlook for Chinese stocks released on May 17. In this environment, one of the few certainties is that pricing power will be a key driver of outperformance this year. That makes stock picking a key investment strategy, they say.</p><p>Here are five stocks that Morgan Stanley is optimistic about with double-digit stock gains in mainland China and Hong Kong markets:</p><p><b><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/600176\">Chinese boulders</a></b>-The Shanghai Stock Exchange-listed fiberglass maker is one of the top-quality companies screened by Morgan Stanley, which analysts expect to benefit from pricing power. Morgan Stanley expects its stock price to rise from 17.30 yuan per share to about 30.98 yuan, an increase of 79.1%.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c61362ed37c32b5b4b7973891f1aa85e\" tg-width=\"840\" tg-height=\"470\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><b><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/01128\">Wynn Macau</a></b>-The Hong Kong-listed company is a leader in Macau's gaming industry and one of the few companies where Morgan Stanley expects corporate pricing power to improve. Morgan Stanley expects the stock to rise 56.7% to about HK $21 per share at a price of HK $13.40 per share.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/274c3fe87bffaf7f47d24a3d43193110\" tg-width=\"840\" tg-height=\"470\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><b><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/300776\">Dier Laser</a></b>-This Wuhan-based company develops and sells laser technology to solar panel manufacturers. Morgan Stanley expects its share price to rise from 107.2 yuan per share to 174.09 yuan, an increase of 62.4%.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c580417db8c48b873bb2c248e62b0bf2\" tg-width=\"840\" tg-height=\"470\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><b><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/002352\">SF Holdings</a></b>-This Chinese express delivery giant belongs to the \"industrial\" category of enterprises that Morgan Stanley expects to benefit from rising inflation. As private spending recovers, these strategists also like consumer services and durable goods. But they downgraded the e-commerce industry to underweight. Morgan Stanley predicts that SF's share price will rise from 62.90 yuan per share to 95.73 yuan, an increase of 52.2%.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/bfff1fbd2280ee4943fc7c6960e51686\" tg-width=\"840\" tg-height=\"470\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><b><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/002027\">Focus media</a></b>-The Chinese offline advertising giant has focused its strategy on elevator advertising. Morgan Stanley's report says advertising is one of the sectors that is seeing price increases right now. Its share price is expected to rise from 9.90 yuan per share to 14.10 yuan, an increase of 42.4%.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/dd5d726c14a4503b2be6795cab6e9c36\" tg-width=\"840\" tg-height=\"470\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/18f26a21557b2b9fbf841d276ecb7796","relate_stocks":{"300776":"帝尔激光","399001":"深证成指","399006":"创业板指","600176":"中国巨石","002027":"分众传媒","000001.SH":"上证指数","01128":"永利澳门","002352":"顺丰控股"},"is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1186223315","content_text":"A股今日（5月25日）迎来久违爆发！沪指大涨2.4%，报收3581.34点；深证成指涨2.34%，报收14846.45点；创业板指涨2.79%，报收3227.36点。金融、白酒、军工等板块大涨，北向资金净流入达247.74亿元，创历史新高；沪深两市成交额突破1万亿元，为2月24日以来首次。市场欢欣鼓舞，大有牛市再来之势。那么，外资大行对中国市场接下来如何走有何判断？看好哪些股票？摩根士丹利分析师对中国市场抱持谨慎态度，以至于将曾经一些炙手可热的板块降级，而把目光转向了一些个股。大摩亚洲股市策略师在5月17日发布的中国股市年中展望中写道，诸如通胀、货币政策收紧以及对中国科技公司的更严格监管等多重不确定因素将对整个市场构成压力。在这种环境下，少数确定因素之一是定价能力将成为今年表现出色的关键驱动力。他们说，这使得选股成为关键的投资策略。以下是大摩看好的在中国内地和香港市场中股票涨幅将达到两位数的五只股票：中国巨石 – 在摩根士丹利筛选的高品质公司中，这家在上交所上市的玻璃纤维制造商是其中之一，分析师预计这将从定价能力中受益。大摩预计，其股价将从每股17.30元升至约30.98元，涨幅为79.1％。永利澳门 – 这家在香港上市的公司是澳门博彩业的领导者，也是摩根士丹利预计企业定价能力将提高的少数几个公司之一。大摩预计，若以每股13.40港元的价格计算，该股将上涨56.7％，至每股约21港元。帝尔激光 — 这家位于武汉的公司开发和销售激光技术给太阳能电池板制造商。摩根士丹利预计，其股价将从每股107.2元升至174.09元，涨幅为62.4％。顺丰控股 — 这家中国快递业巨头属于摩根士丹利预期将随着通货膨胀率上升而受益的“工业”类企业。随着私人支出的恢复，这些策略师们也喜欢消费者服务和耐用品。但是他们将电子商务行业的评级降低到了减持。摩根士丹利预计，顺丰股价将从每股62.90元升至95.73元，涨幅为52.2％。分众传媒 - 这家中国线下广告巨头将其战略重点放在电梯广告上。摩根士丹利的报告称，广告业是目前价格上涨的行业之一。预计其股价将从每股9.90元升至14.10元，涨幅为42.4％。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"300776":0.9,"399001":0.9,"399006":0.9,"600176":0.9,"000001.SH":0.9,"01128":0.9,"002352":0.9,"002027":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2053,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":831072246,"gmtCreate":1629276310085,"gmtModify":1676529987998,"author":{"id":"3573863078476577","authorId":"3573863078476577","name":"磐石533","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3acfdf718b918510c617d15517144155","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3573863078476577","authorIdStr":"3573863078476577"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"12.5➗23.75×10=5.26%","listText":"12.5➗23.75×10=5.26%","text":"12.5➗23.75×10=5.26%","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/831072246","repostId":"2160858427","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"2160858427","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1629241227,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/2160858427?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2021-08-18 07:00","market":"hk","language":"zh","title":"Vanke Enterprise (02202. HK) plans to distribute 10 annual A shares for RMB 12.5. The equity registration date is August 24","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2160858427","media":"格隆汇","summary":"格隆汇8月18日丨万科企业(02202.HK)发布2020年度A股股份分红派息实施公告，拟向全体A股股东每10股派发现金红利(含税)人民币12.5元，股权登记日：2021年8月24日(周二)，除息日：2021年8月25日(周三)。","content":"<p><html><body>Gelonghui August 18th<span><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/02202\">Vanke enterprise</a>(02202. HK) announced the implementation announcement of A-share dividend distribution in 2020, and plans to distribute a cash dividend (tax included) of RMB 12.5 for every 10 shares to all A-share shareholders. Equity registration date: August 24, 2021 (Tuesday), ex-dividend date: August 25, 2021 (Wednesday).</span></p><p></body></html></p>","source":"stock_gelonghui","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Vanke Enterprise (02202. HK) plans to distribute 10 annual A shares for RMB 12.5. The equity registration date is August 24</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nVanke Enterprise (02202. HK) plans to distribute 10 annual A shares for RMB 12.5. The equity registration date is August 24\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">格隆汇</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-08-18 07:00</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><html><body>Gelonghui August 18th<span><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/02202\">Vanke enterprise</a>(02202. HK) announced the implementation announcement of A-share dividend distribution in 2020, and plans to distribute a cash dividend (tax included) of RMB 12.5 for every 10 shares to all A-share shareholders. Equity registration date: August 24, 2021 (Tuesday), ex-dividend date: August 25, 2021 (Wednesday).</span></p><p></body></html></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> source：<a href=\"https://www.gelonghui.com/news/detail.html?id=601438\">格隆汇</a></p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e0ab8365ea89ee143187cbf51d23ba8f","relate_stocks":{"02202":"万科企业","000002":"万科A"},"source_url":"https://www.gelonghui.com/news/detail.html?id=601438","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2160858427","content_text":"格隆汇8月18日丨万科企业(02202.HK)发布2020年度A股股份分红派息实施公告，拟向全体A股股东每10股派发现金红利(含税)人民币12.5元，股权登记日：2021年8月24日(周二)，除息日：2021年8月25日(周三)。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"000002":0.9,"02202":1}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2735,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":133902035,"gmtCreate":1621679112827,"gmtModify":1704361391859,"author":{"id":"3573863078476577","authorId":"3573863078476577","name":"磐石533","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3acfdf718b918510c617d15517144155","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3573863078476577","authorIdStr":"3573863078476577"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"?","listText":"?","text":"?","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/133902035","repostId":"133025626","repostType":1,"repost":{"id":133025626,"gmtCreate":1621672117863,"gmtModify":1704361338770,"author":{"id":"3514329116425907","authorId":"3514329116425907","name":"小虎AV","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/91101bd3142b32495c3131036d5f8afa","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3514329116425907","authorIdStr":"3514329116425907"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"\n \n \n  【60秒回顧“雜交水稻之父”袁隆平一生 他用一顆種子改變了世界】雜交水稻之父、中國工程院院士袁隆平因多器官功能衰竭於2021年5月22日13時07分在長沙逝世，享年91歲。袁隆平1930年9月1日生於北京，江西德安人。1953年袁隆平畢業於西南農學院，分配到湖南安江農校任教。2000年，袁隆平獲得國家最高科學技術獎。2019年9月，袁隆平被授予國家最高榮譽勳章“共和國勳章”。一分鐘回顧袁隆平生平，他用一顆種子改變了世界。[默哀] 尋夢環遊記裏有句臺詞是：死亡不是生命的終點，遺忘纔是，我會記得你。<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/000001.SH\">$上證指數(000001.SH)$</a>\n \n","listText":"【60秒回顧“雜交水稻之父”袁隆平一生 他用一顆種子改變了世界】雜交水稻之父、中國工程院院士袁隆平因多器官功能衰竭於2021年5月22日13時07分在長沙逝世，享年91歲。袁隆平1930年9月1日生於北京，江西德安人。1953年袁隆平畢業於西南農學院，分配到湖南安江農校任教。2000年，袁隆平獲得國家最高科學技術獎。2019年9月，袁隆平被授予國家最高榮譽勳章“共和國勳章”。一分鐘回顧袁隆平生平，他用一顆種子改變了世界。[默哀] 尋夢環遊記裏有句臺詞是：死亡不是生命的終點，遺忘纔是，我會記得你。<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/000001.SH\">$上證指數(000001.SH)$</a>","text":"【60秒回顧“雜交水稻之父”袁隆平一生 他用一顆種子改變了世界】雜交水稻之父、中國工程院院士袁隆平因多器官功能衰竭於2021年5月22日13時07分在長沙逝世，享年91歲。袁隆平1930年9月1日生於北京，江西德安人。1953年袁隆平畢業於西南農學院，分配到湖南安江農校任教。2000年，袁隆平獲得國家最高科學技術獎。2019年9月，袁隆平被授予國家最高榮譽勳章“共和國勳章”。一分鐘回顧袁隆平生平，他用一顆種子改變了世界。[默哀] 尋夢環遊記裏有句臺詞是：死亡不是生命的終點，遺忘纔是，我會記得你。$上證指數(000001.SH)$","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":2,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/133025626","isVote":1,"tweetType":2,"object":{"id":"a728f75d2fb24adb935affad6f21bb10","tweetId":"133025626","videoUrl":"https://1254107296.vod2.myqcloud.com/73ba5544vodgzp1254107296/828f24105285890818725834800/IQ4AxoR0h8wA.mp4","poster":"https://1254107296.vod2.myqcloud.com/27e1f7ecvodtransgzp1254107296/828f24105285890818725834800/coverBySnapshot_10_0.jpg"},"viewCount":0,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1678,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":358975975,"gmtCreate":1616658332397,"gmtModify":1704797001326,"author":{"id":"3573863078476577","authorId":"3573863078476577","name":"磐石533","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3acfdf718b918510c617d15517144155","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3573863078476577","authorIdStr":"3573863078476577"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"?","listText":"?","text":"?","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/358975975","repostId":"2122418671","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"2122418671","kind":"highlight","pubTimestamp":1616656500,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/2122418671?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2021-03-25 15:15","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"Ministry of Commerce: Pure white and flawless Xinjiang cotton cannot be discredited and tarnished by any force","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2122418671","media":"新京报","summary":"据央视新闻消息，在今天商务部举行的例行新闻发布会上，发言人高峰就H&M等国外服装品牌因新疆棉问题回应了记者的提问。高峰表示，所谓中国新疆地区存在“强迫劳动”，完全是子虚乌有，纯白无瑕的新疆棉花不容任何势力玷污抹黑。我们反对任何外部势力干涉新疆事务和中国内政，反对基于谎言和虚假信息、以所谓新疆人权问题为由对中方有关实体和个人实施制裁。","content":"<p><div>According to CCTV news, at the regular press conference held by the Ministry of Commerce today (March 25th), spokesman Gao Feng responded to reporters' questions about foreign clothing brands such as H&M due to Xinjiang cotton issues. Gao Feng said that the so-called existence of \"forced labor\" in Xinjiang, China, is completely false, and the pure white and flawless Xinjiang cotton cannot be tarnished and discredited by any force. We oppose any external forces interfering in Xinjiang affairs and China's internal affairs, and oppose the imposition of sanctions on relevant Chinese entities and individuals based on lies and false information and on the grounds of so-called human rights issues in Xinjiang. Gao Feng emphasized that for the normal business activities and construction of multinational enterprises in China...</p><p><a href=\"https://www.bjnews.com.cn/detail/161665651315171.html\">Web link</a></div></p>","source":"highlight_bjnews","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Ministry of Commerce: Pure white and flawless Xinjiang cotton cannot be discredited and tarnished by any force</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nMinistry of Commerce: Pure white and flawless Xinjiang cotton cannot be discredited and tarnished by any force\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">新京报</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-03-25 15:15</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><div>According to CCTV news, at the regular press conference held by the Ministry of Commerce today (March 25th), spokesman Gao Feng responded to reporters' questions about foreign clothing brands such as H&M due to Xinjiang cotton issues. Gao Feng said that the so-called existence of \"forced labor\" in Xinjiang, China, is completely false, and the pure white and flawless Xinjiang cotton cannot be tarnished and discredited by any force. We oppose any external forces interfering in Xinjiang affairs and China's internal affairs, and oppose the imposition of sanctions on relevant Chinese entities and individuals based on lies and false information and on the grounds of so-called human rights issues in Xinjiang. Gao Feng emphasized that for the normal business activities and construction of multinational enterprises in China...</p><p><a href=\"https://www.bjnews.com.cn/detail/161665651315171.html\">Web link</a></div></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> source：<a href=\"https://www.bjnews.com.cn/detail/161665651315171.html\">新京报</a></p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/36df0d1b19312ed3b0fd25252f9af140","relate_stocks":{"HMRZF":"Hennes & Mauritz AB"},"source_url":"https://www.bjnews.com.cn/detail/161665651315171.html","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2122418671","content_text":"据央视新闻消息，在今天（3月25日）商务部举行的例行新闻发布会上，发言人高峰就H&M等国外服装品牌因新疆棉问题回应了记者的提问。\n高峰表示，所谓中国新疆地区存在“强迫劳动”，完全是子虚乌有，纯白无瑕的新疆棉花不容任何势力玷污抹黑。我们反对任何外部势力干涉新疆事务和中国内政，反对基于谎言和虚假信息、以所谓新疆人权问题为由对中方有关实体和个人实施制裁。\n高峰强调，对于跨国企业在中国正常的经营活动和构建产业链供应链的努力，中国政府始终持欢迎和支持态度。对于个别企业基于虚假信息作出的所谓商业决策，中国消费者已经用实际行动作出了回应。希望有关企业尊重市场规律，纠正错误做法，避免商业问题政治化。同时，我们欢迎外国企业到新疆实地考察，也愿意为各国企业在新疆开展贸易投资提供积极支持。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"HMRZF":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2256,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":328469097,"gmtCreate":1615551860319,"gmtModify":1704784442047,"author":{"id":"3573863078476577","authorId":"3573863078476577","name":"磐石533","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3acfdf718b918510c617d15517144155","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3573863078476577","authorIdStr":"3573863078476577"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"1.595%","listText":"1.595%","text":"1.595%","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/328469097","repostId":"1191557527","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1191557527","kind":"news","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"市场策略研究、热点问题观察、分享最新观点：美国与海外市场、H股、及中概股市场","home_visible":1,"media_name":"Kevin策略研究","id":"1090746012","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/54c3f16355434883aa8d30b4dc5a7d90"},"pubTimestamp":1615513116,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1191557527?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2021-03-12 09:38","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"CICC Overseas: Has the short-term shock of interest rates passed?","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1191557527","media":"Kevin策略研究","summary":"过去几日，美债利率上行势头有所趋缓，10年美债利率本周初冲高后有所回落、甚至一度回至1.5%下方，特别是实际利率的升幅明显收窄。在此环境下，美股市场得到明显喘息，道琼斯和标普500指数甚至创出新高，纳","content":"<p>In the past few days, the upward momentum of US Treasury yields has slowed down. The 10-year US Treasury yields has fallen back after surging at the beginning of this week, and even once returned to below 1.5%. In particular, the increase in real interest rates has narrowed significantly. In this environment, the U.S. stock market has obviously breathed, with the Dow Jones and S&P 500 indexes even hitting new highs. Although the Nasdaq has not yet returned to its previous high, it has also continued to rebound from the bottom.</p><p>So at this point in time, has the impact of interest rates passed? What is the trend of interest rates and the market prospect in the medium and long term? We update our analysis as follows for investors' reference.</p><p><b>1. Has the impact of interest rates passed temporarily? The short term may be</b></p><p>Our March allocation monthly report published at the beginning of the month \"Periodic disturbance, or systemic inflection point?\" Mentioned that in the short term, if there is no unexpected chain reaction at the transaction level, taking into account factors such as expected accounting and emotional release,<b>We believe that interest rates may ease in stages after an abnormal surge, which will give the market some respite, especially high-valued technology stocks</b>。 At present, this trend is basically consistent with our expectations.</p><p>Looking back, first of all, the source of this round of US Treasury yields, especially the rapid rise in real interest rates, was in early February. After the Democratic Party in Congress began to promote the use of budget adjustment procedures, the market's expectation of stimulus of $1.9 trillion gradually warmed up (\"A new round of fiscal stimulus in the United States is approaching\"), because at that time, the market could basically determine that it was basically a matter of time before a new round of fiscal stimulus passed. Now, Biden has officially signed the $1.9 trillion stimulus bill into effect.<b>But for the market, this is already the fulfillment of expectations.</b></p><p><b>Secondly, there are also obvious transaction-level factors in this rise in interest rates, especially the phased rapid rise</b>For example, after breaking through the key barrier, stop loss or programmed trading is triggered, which leads to the amplification of volatility, which in turn leads to the bond being significantly oversold for a time. However, this situation has also eased significantly after the market returned to relative calm.<b>Therefore, taking these two considerations together, we expect that interest rates may consolidate and slow down at this position in the short term until the next catalyst arrives.</b></p><p>In addition, the increase in the scale of bond purchases by the Federal Reserve's short-term open market operations and the significant increase in Treasury Bond auction bidding rates may also improve market sentiment at the micro level.</p><p>However, the current interest rate level and volatility are still at a relatively high level, so the unexpected surge due to some events and key economic data is still worthy of attention. If it happens, it will inevitably cause another disturbance to the market.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5306eecb472ec3844b5f0260f6c8d753\" tg-width=\"812\" tg-height=\"499\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7044a927f4bc7712147715fcace71825\" tg-width=\"935\" tg-height=\"574\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ea32bfdd23f975dc8787c05412f1a944\" tg-width=\"1033\" tg-height=\"633\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/27d09a7c1874a714ac8ae2fff2b15988\" tg-width=\"806\" tg-height=\"498\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/96f04c2aa13d5bc545c507b363a7b7b1\" tg-width=\"879\" tg-height=\"539\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><b>2. What are the medium and long-term interest rate prospects? There is still room for upside and real interest rates are the main ones, waiting for a catalyst</b></p><p><b>Generally speaking, US Treasury yields will still have room for upside under the background that the booming supply and demand in the United States in the first half of this year are expected to drive upside risks to the economy.</b></p><p>On the supply side, the average vaccination rate of 2 million doses per day is expected to enable the United States to achieve herd immunity before summer, thereby promoting the resumption of production and the increase in service consumption. The recent sharp jump in the number of TSA airport security checks may be a direct manifestation. On the demand side, $1.9 trillion in fiscal stimulus has been released, and a direct subsidy of $1,400 per person and a weekly unemployment supplement of $300 will begin to be paid until early September (but considering the recovery of employment, this payment will be concentrated in the first half of the year). In fact, the $900 billion fiscal stimulus passed at the end of last year has caused the household savings rate to jump sharply from 13.4% in December to 20.5% in January, with immediate results.</p><p><b>So that absolute level</b>, after the interest rate level exceeded the first target point of 1.5% given in our outlook \"2021 Overseas Market Outlook: The Path of the Epidemic, Replenishment of Stocks\" in November last year,<b>Combined with the ACM term premium model provided by the New York Fed, we expect the next target point to be around 1.8%. In terms of drivers, we expect to remain dominated by real interest rates</b>, mainly considering that the real growth expectation will continue to rise, and at the same time, the inflation expectation has reacted in advance and approached the historical edge (\"The Meaning and Impact of Higher Real Interest Rates\").</p><p><b>However, in terms of rhythm, unless there are some unexpected trading-level factors, we expect that the next wave of rising interest rates may also have to wait for new catalysts.</b>For example, Biden's infrastructure plan or if the budget arrangement for the new fiscal year includes a large-scale infrastructure investment budget (expected from April to May), as well as milestone progress in vaccination to achieve herd immunity, etc.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/953a74940abdb73cad7a54eaecd25900\" tg-width=\"806\" tg-height=\"495\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/22f4913292f8d8dd12a13d006cbb6163\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"572\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/681387aaeb78e4f926fb540feabfba00\" tg-width=\"952\" tg-height=\"584\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/490695078472cbf873ac95c44e1c2d1b\" tg-width=\"937\" tg-height=\"575\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6461ed7d515436fa3d8ed148a1c254c9\" tg-width=\"806\" tg-height=\"544\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0feeeea5fcce1eb6ec0aa26406516bc3\" tg-width=\"806\" tg-height=\"477\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><b>3. Potential impact on the market and asset prices? Short-term respite, medium and long-term determines fundamentals</b></p><p>Undoubtedly, the easing of the upward trend of short-term interest rates will have a significant respite effect on the market, which is also the main reason for the recent market rebound.</p><p>However, in the long run, although the rise in short-term interest rates will inevitably lead to an increase in financing costs, especially the rapid rise will increase volatility, fundamentals are still the key to determining the medium and long-term trend of the market. Therefore,<b>We do not believe that simply higher interest rates or a steep bond curve will reverse the overall market trend in the context of continued improvement in overall fundamentals or even upside risks.</b></p><p>In the fourth quarter, U.S. stock profits have turned positive year-on-year, and the recovery speed has exceeded expectations.<b>Despite the strong supply and demand of the U.S. economy in the first half of the year, we remain confident in the recovery of U.S. earnings in the first two quarters</b>(\"Can U.S. stock earnings withstand upward disturbances in interest rates?\"). As we analyzed the experience of the U.S. stock market in early 2018 after the fluctuation caused by the sudden rise in bond interest rates, the market was able to reach a new high after the fluctuation thanks to the profit support after the tax reform, until the interest rate reached a new high in early October and the fundamentals began to gradually decline. You know, 2018 is not as good as the current one in many aspects (for example, it was in the rate hike cycle and the post-economic recovery cycle at that time, the risk premium considering the interest rate level was lower than the current one, and the financing leverage was higher than the current one, etc.) (\"Disturbance of Rising Interest Rates: Experience from 2018\").</p><p><b>It should be noted that the upward trend of real interest rates is not conducive to the performance of gold and high valuations, especially \"inflated\" valuations</b>, which is also the reason why the recent performance of the Dow Jones index in the US stock market is significantly better than that of value stocks such as the Nasdaq and banks.<b>However, once the interest rate surge eases in stages, it is difficult to maintain the relative performance of value stocks compared to growth stocks</b>(\"The Meaning and Impact of Higher Real Interest Rates\")<b>。</b></p><p>Therefore, we maintain our view in the March monthly asset allocation report: in the short term, we can appropriately reduce positions and hedge risks from the perspective of hedging, but maintain the ranking of stocks > bulk > gold > bonds.<b>Stocks are still the relative preferred choice, and commodities are partially profited by expected excessive suggestions after the surge, while bonds and gold are still unattractive. Vaccinations in Europe remain slow and new fiscal stimulus in the United States may still provide support for the US Dollar Index. Inside the stock,</b>The relative earnings and valuations of highly valued growth stocks will be under pressure against the backdrop of higher interest rates, and vice versa.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8aa4eb9a200935e26692ee45d1f137cb\" tg-width=\"806\" tg-height=\"494\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/fe09668a6799caeeb18e3fa87048bfd8\" tg-width=\"976\" tg-height=\"604\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4af76a2ab418b58372d8b5128bc32e71\" tg-width=\"806\" tg-height=\"479\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/455090cdcec012da1fae3ea332fca17f\" tg-width=\"806\" tg-height=\"495\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><b>4. Future policy expectations? OT > YCC</b></p><p>Asset price fluctuations caused by the recent rapid rise in interest rates have also significantly increased market expectations for the Federal Reserve's \"intervention\". 1.85 trillion euros, and a total of 870 billion euros have been purchased so far).</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/fad483ff57d2e5ace5ffd955f81fc109\" tg-width=\"949\" tg-height=\"582\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><b>We speculate that the Fed is still \"calm\" about the recent upward performance of long-term US Treasury yields, which may be because</b>: On the one hand, in the view of the Federal Reserve, the recent rise in interest rates is a positive expectation driven by positive growth. At the same time, Powell does not believe that the short-term rise in inflation is sustainable in the context of underemployment and still large output gaps; On the other hand, although long-term interest rates have risen, the liquidity of the financial system has remained loose. The indicators we track to measure a series of financial market liquidity environment, such as FRA-OIS, commercial paper, credit spreads, etc., have also not tightened significantly.</p><p>So what are the options if next, for example at the upcoming March FOMC meeting, if the Fed does something? We believe that in the current environment,<b>Compared with yield curve control (YCC), operation twist may be a relatively more convenient and effective way, while YCC may have a greater distortion in asset pricing and lead to a reduction in the actual purchase scale.</b></p><p>►<b>Twisting operation</b>, is the relatively most convenient and effective way under the current circumstances, and the scale of QE purchases will remain unchanged. Since the short-term interest rate anchored to the Fed's benchmark interest rate remains basically unchanged, even if the short-term interest rate is sold in the short term, the possible response will be relatively limited. In 2011, the distortion operation brought about the obvious effect of the downward trend of long-term interest rates;</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/780526ef7a48911f8da5407d76ba106c\" tg-width=\"911\" tg-height=\"559\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>►<b>Yield curve control</b>On the contrary, it may cause the actual Taper and greater distortion of asset pricing. Referring to the previous experience of the Bank of Japan in launching YCC (of course, the Bank of Japan was trying to avoid excessive negative interest rates instead of lowering interest rates), anchoring a certain price point rather than a quantitative target can have a significant effect, that is, interest rates are completely anchored. However, the actual required purchase scale continues to decline, which is equal to the effect of Taper. However, this operation of completely anchoring a certain bond yield point may \"distort\" market pricing, which may bring greater trouble from a medium-to long-term launch perspective;</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/68dcecf0510dcdddaa819757d079de53\" tg-width=\"928\" tg-height=\"567\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>►<b>Extend the expiration of the exemption requirement for the capital adequacy ratio of banking institutions to invest in Treasury Bond.</b>During the epidemic, in order to alleviate the liquidity pressure in the Treasury Bond market, the Federal Reserve allowed large financial institutions not to include Treasury Bond holdings in the calculation of capital adequacy ratios, but this exemption ended at the end of March. As of the third quarter,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BAC\">Bank of America</a>Institutions hold US $1.3 trillion in Treasury Bond, accounting for 5.5% of the total stock, an increase of US $285 billion compared with before the epidemic. If the exemption is lifted, it may be more reflected in reducing demand for Treasury Bond in the context of Bank of America's current capital adequacy ratio at a record high.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/361aac133e6d7beb0135d1ed2843a8e5\" tg-width=\"900\" tg-height=\"551\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>CICC Overseas: Has the short-term shock of interest rates passed?</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nCICC Overseas: Has the short-term shock of interest rates passed?\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/1090746012\">\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/54c3f16355434883aa8d30b4dc5a7d90);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">Kevin策略研究 </p>\n<p class=\"h-time smaller\">2021-03-12 09:38</p>\n</div>\n</a>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>In the past few days, the upward momentum of US Treasury yields has slowed down. The 10-year US Treasury yields has fallen back after surging at the beginning of this week, and even once returned to below 1.5%. In particular, the increase in real interest rates has narrowed significantly. In this environment, the U.S. stock market has obviously breathed, with the Dow Jones and S&P 500 indexes even hitting new highs. Although the Nasdaq has not yet returned to its previous high, it has also continued to rebound from the bottom.</p><p>So at this point in time, has the impact of interest rates passed? What is the trend of interest rates and the market prospect in the medium and long term? We update our analysis as follows for investors' reference.</p><p><b>1. Has the impact of interest rates passed temporarily? The short term may be</b></p><p>Our March allocation monthly report published at the beginning of the month \"Periodic disturbance, or systemic inflection point?\" Mentioned that in the short term, if there is no unexpected chain reaction at the transaction level, taking into account factors such as expected accounting and emotional release,<b>We believe that interest rates may ease in stages after an abnormal surge, which will give the market some respite, especially high-valued technology stocks</b>。 At present, this trend is basically consistent with our expectations.</p><p>Looking back, first of all, the source of this round of US Treasury yields, especially the rapid rise in real interest rates, was in early February. After the Democratic Party in Congress began to promote the use of budget adjustment procedures, the market's expectation of stimulus of $1.9 trillion gradually warmed up (\"A new round of fiscal stimulus in the United States is approaching\"), because at that time, the market could basically determine that it was basically a matter of time before a new round of fiscal stimulus passed. Now, Biden has officially signed the $1.9 trillion stimulus bill into effect.<b>But for the market, this is already the fulfillment of expectations.</b></p><p><b>Secondly, there are also obvious transaction-level factors in this rise in interest rates, especially the phased rapid rise</b>For example, after breaking through the key barrier, stop loss or programmed trading is triggered, which leads to the amplification of volatility, which in turn leads to the bond being significantly oversold for a time. However, this situation has also eased significantly after the market returned to relative calm.<b>Therefore, taking these two considerations together, we expect that interest rates may consolidate and slow down at this position in the short term until the next catalyst arrives.</b></p><p>In addition, the increase in the scale of bond purchases by the Federal Reserve's short-term open market operations and the significant increase in Treasury Bond auction bidding rates may also improve market sentiment at the micro level.</p><p>However, the current interest rate level and volatility are still at a relatively high level, so the unexpected surge due to some events and key economic data is still worthy of attention. If it happens, it will inevitably cause another disturbance to the market.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5306eecb472ec3844b5f0260f6c8d753\" tg-width=\"812\" tg-height=\"499\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7044a927f4bc7712147715fcace71825\" tg-width=\"935\" tg-height=\"574\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ea32bfdd23f975dc8787c05412f1a944\" tg-width=\"1033\" tg-height=\"633\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/27d09a7c1874a714ac8ae2fff2b15988\" tg-width=\"806\" tg-height=\"498\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/96f04c2aa13d5bc545c507b363a7b7b1\" tg-width=\"879\" tg-height=\"539\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><b>2. What are the medium and long-term interest rate prospects? There is still room for upside and real interest rates are the main ones, waiting for a catalyst</b></p><p><b>Generally speaking, US Treasury yields will still have room for upside under the background that the booming supply and demand in the United States in the first half of this year are expected to drive upside risks to the economy.</b></p><p>On the supply side, the average vaccination rate of 2 million doses per day is expected to enable the United States to achieve herd immunity before summer, thereby promoting the resumption of production and the increase in service consumption. The recent sharp jump in the number of TSA airport security checks may be a direct manifestation. On the demand side, $1.9 trillion in fiscal stimulus has been released, and a direct subsidy of $1,400 per person and a weekly unemployment supplement of $300 will begin to be paid until early September (but considering the recovery of employment, this payment will be concentrated in the first half of the year). In fact, the $900 billion fiscal stimulus passed at the end of last year has caused the household savings rate to jump sharply from 13.4% in December to 20.5% in January, with immediate results.</p><p><b>So that absolute level</b>, after the interest rate level exceeded the first target point of 1.5% given in our outlook \"2021 Overseas Market Outlook: The Path of the Epidemic, Replenishment of Stocks\" in November last year,<b>Combined with the ACM term premium model provided by the New York Fed, we expect the next target point to be around 1.8%. In terms of drivers, we expect to remain dominated by real interest rates</b>, mainly considering that the real growth expectation will continue to rise, and at the same time, the inflation expectation has reacted in advance and approached the historical edge (\"The Meaning and Impact of Higher Real Interest Rates\").</p><p><b>However, in terms of rhythm, unless there are some unexpected trading-level factors, we expect that the next wave of rising interest rates may also have to wait for new catalysts.</b>For example, Biden's infrastructure plan or if the budget arrangement for the new fiscal year includes a large-scale infrastructure investment budget (expected from April to May), as well as milestone progress in vaccination to achieve herd immunity, etc.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/953a74940abdb73cad7a54eaecd25900\" tg-width=\"806\" tg-height=\"495\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/22f4913292f8d8dd12a13d006cbb6163\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"572\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/681387aaeb78e4f926fb540feabfba00\" tg-width=\"952\" tg-height=\"584\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/490695078472cbf873ac95c44e1c2d1b\" tg-width=\"937\" tg-height=\"575\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6461ed7d515436fa3d8ed148a1c254c9\" tg-width=\"806\" tg-height=\"544\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0feeeea5fcce1eb6ec0aa26406516bc3\" tg-width=\"806\" tg-height=\"477\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><b>3. Potential impact on the market and asset prices? Short-term respite, medium and long-term determines fundamentals</b></p><p>Undoubtedly, the easing of the upward trend of short-term interest rates will have a significant respite effect on the market, which is also the main reason for the recent market rebound.</p><p>However, in the long run, although the rise in short-term interest rates will inevitably lead to an increase in financing costs, especially the rapid rise will increase volatility, fundamentals are still the key to determining the medium and long-term trend of the market. Therefore,<b>We do not believe that simply higher interest rates or a steep bond curve will reverse the overall market trend in the context of continued improvement in overall fundamentals or even upside risks.</b></p><p>In the fourth quarter, U.S. stock profits have turned positive year-on-year, and the recovery speed has exceeded expectations.<b>Despite the strong supply and demand of the U.S. economy in the first half of the year, we remain confident in the recovery of U.S. earnings in the first two quarters</b>(\"Can U.S. stock earnings withstand upward disturbances in interest rates?\"). As we analyzed the experience of the U.S. stock market in early 2018 after the fluctuation caused by the sudden rise in bond interest rates, the market was able to reach a new high after the fluctuation thanks to the profit support after the tax reform, until the interest rate reached a new high in early October and the fundamentals began to gradually decline. You know, 2018 is not as good as the current one in many aspects (for example, it was in the rate hike cycle and the post-economic recovery cycle at that time, the risk premium considering the interest rate level was lower than the current one, and the financing leverage was higher than the current one, etc.) (\"Disturbance of Rising Interest Rates: Experience from 2018\").</p><p><b>It should be noted that the upward trend of real interest rates is not conducive to the performance of gold and high valuations, especially \"inflated\" valuations</b>, which is also the reason why the recent performance of the Dow Jones index in the US stock market is significantly better than that of value stocks such as the Nasdaq and banks.<b>However, once the interest rate surge eases in stages, it is difficult to maintain the relative performance of value stocks compared to growth stocks</b>(\"The Meaning and Impact of Higher Real Interest Rates\")<b>。</b></p><p>Therefore, we maintain our view in the March monthly asset allocation report: in the short term, we can appropriately reduce positions and hedge risks from the perspective of hedging, but maintain the ranking of stocks > bulk > gold > bonds.<b>Stocks are still the relative preferred choice, and commodities are partially profited by expected excessive suggestions after the surge, while bonds and gold are still unattractive. Vaccinations in Europe remain slow and new fiscal stimulus in the United States may still provide support for the US Dollar Index. Inside the stock,</b>The relative earnings and valuations of highly valued growth stocks will be under pressure against the backdrop of higher interest rates, and vice versa.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8aa4eb9a200935e26692ee45d1f137cb\" tg-width=\"806\" tg-height=\"494\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/fe09668a6799caeeb18e3fa87048bfd8\" tg-width=\"976\" tg-height=\"604\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4af76a2ab418b58372d8b5128bc32e71\" tg-width=\"806\" tg-height=\"479\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/455090cdcec012da1fae3ea332fca17f\" tg-width=\"806\" tg-height=\"495\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><b>4. Future policy expectations? OT > YCC</b></p><p>Asset price fluctuations caused by the recent rapid rise in interest rates have also significantly increased market expectations for the Federal Reserve's \"intervention\". 1.85 trillion euros, and a total of 870 billion euros have been purchased so far).</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/fad483ff57d2e5ace5ffd955f81fc109\" tg-width=\"949\" tg-height=\"582\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><b>We speculate that the Fed is still \"calm\" about the recent upward performance of long-term US Treasury yields, which may be because</b>: On the one hand, in the view of the Federal Reserve, the recent rise in interest rates is a positive expectation driven by positive growth. At the same time, Powell does not believe that the short-term rise in inflation is sustainable in the context of underemployment and still large output gaps; On the other hand, although long-term interest rates have risen, the liquidity of the financial system has remained loose. The indicators we track to measure a series of financial market liquidity environment, such as FRA-OIS, commercial paper, credit spreads, etc., have also not tightened significantly.</p><p>So what are the options if next, for example at the upcoming March FOMC meeting, if the Fed does something? We believe that in the current environment,<b>Compared with yield curve control (YCC), operation twist may be a relatively more convenient and effective way, while YCC may have a greater distortion in asset pricing and lead to a reduction in the actual purchase scale.</b></p><p>►<b>Twisting operation</b>, is the relatively most convenient and effective way under the current circumstances, and the scale of QE purchases will remain unchanged. Since the short-term interest rate anchored to the Fed's benchmark interest rate remains basically unchanged, even if the short-term interest rate is sold in the short term, the possible response will be relatively limited. In 2011, the distortion operation brought about the obvious effect of the downward trend of long-term interest rates;</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/780526ef7a48911f8da5407d76ba106c\" tg-width=\"911\" tg-height=\"559\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>►<b>Yield curve control</b>On the contrary, it may cause the actual Taper and greater distortion of asset pricing. Referring to the previous experience of the Bank of Japan in launching YCC (of course, the Bank of Japan was trying to avoid excessive negative interest rates instead of lowering interest rates), anchoring a certain price point rather than a quantitative target can have a significant effect, that is, interest rates are completely anchored. However, the actual required purchase scale continues to decline, which is equal to the effect of Taper. However, this operation of completely anchoring a certain bond yield point may \"distort\" market pricing, which may bring greater trouble from a medium-to long-term launch perspective;</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/68dcecf0510dcdddaa819757d079de53\" tg-width=\"928\" tg-height=\"567\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>►<b>Extend the expiration of the exemption requirement for the capital adequacy ratio of banking institutions to invest in Treasury Bond.</b>During the epidemic, in order to alleviate the liquidity pressure in the Treasury Bond market, the Federal Reserve allowed large financial institutions not to include Treasury Bond holdings in the calculation of capital adequacy ratios, but this exemption ended at the end of March. As of the third quarter,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BAC\">Bank of America</a>Institutions hold US $1.3 trillion in Treasury Bond, accounting for 5.5% of the total stock, an increase of US $285 billion compared with before the epidemic. If the exemption is lifted, it may be more reflected in reducing demand for Treasury Bond in the context of Bank of America's current capital adequacy ratio at a record high.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/361aac133e6d7beb0135d1ed2843a8e5\" tg-width=\"900\" tg-height=\"551\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/fd680cd945fd32917c8ece66ec685e5f","relate_stocks":{".DJI":"道琼斯",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index"},"is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1191557527","content_text":"过去几日，美债利率上行势头有所趋缓，10年美债利率本周初冲高后有所回落、甚至一度回至1.5%下方，特别是实际利率的升幅明显收窄。在此环境下，美股市场得到明显喘息，道琼斯和标普500指数甚至创出新高，纳斯达克虽然尚未回到前期高点，但也从底部持续反弹。\n那么站在这个时间点，利率的冲击是否已经过去？中长期看利率的走势、以及市场前景如何？我们更新分析如下，供投资者参考。\n一、利率的冲击是否暂时已经过去？短期可能是\n我们在月初发表的3月配置月报《阶段性扰动，还是系统性拐点？》中提到，短期内，如果不出现交易层面意外诱发连锁反应的话，考虑到预期的计入和情绪释放等因素，我们认为利率可能在异常上冲后阶段性缓和，进而使得市场也得到一定喘息，尤其是高估值的科技股。目前看，这一走势与我们预期的情况基本一致。\n回过头来看，首先，此轮美债利率特别是实际利率快速上行的源头正是2月初，国会民主党开始推动使用预算调节程序后，市场对于1.9万亿美元刺激通过预期的逐渐升温（《美国新一轮财政刺激渐行渐近》），因为在当时市场就可以基本确定，新一轮财政刺激通过基本是时间的问题。而到了现在，1.9万亿美元刺激法案拜登已经正式签署使之生效，但对于市场而言，这已经是预期兑现了。\n其次，此次利率上行、特别是阶段性的快速上冲也存在明显的交易层面因素，如突破关键关口后，触发止损或者程序化交易进而引发波动的放大，进而导致债券一度明显超卖。但这一情形在市场恢复相对平静后，也得到明显缓和。因此，正是综合这两点考虑，我们预计利率短期可能在这一位置盘整趋缓，直到下一个催化剂到来。\n此外，美联储短期公开市场操作购债规模增加、以及国债拍卖竞拍率明显提升可能也在微观层面改善了市场情绪。\n不过，当前利率水平和波动率依然处于相对高位，因此因为一些事件和关键经济数据出发的意外上冲依然值得关注，如果出现的话，仍难免对市场再度造成扰动。\n\n二、中长期的利率前景？仍有上行空间且以实际利率为主、等待以一个催化剂\n大方向上，在预计今年上半年美国供需两旺推动经济存在上行风险的背景下，美债利率仍将有上行空间。\n供给端，平均每天200万剂的疫苗接种速度有望使得美国在夏天前实现群体免疫，进而推动生产复工和服务性消费的提升，近期TSA机场安检人数大幅跃升可能就是一个直接体现。需求端，1.9万亿美元的财政刺激已经出炉，每人1400美元的直接补贴、以及每周300美元的失业补充将开始发放直到9月初（但考虑到就业的修复，这一发放将集中在上半年）。实际上，去年底通过的9000亿美元财政刺激已经使得居民储蓄率从12月的13.4%大幅跃升至1月的20.5%，效果立竿见影。\n因此绝对水平上，在利率水平突破我们在去年11月度展望《2021年海外市场展望：疫情径曲、补库通幽》给出的1.5%的第一目标点位后，我们结合纽约联储提供的ACM期限溢价模型预计下一个目标点位在1.8%左右。从驱动因素上，我们预计仍将以实际利率为主，主要是考虑到真实的增长预期将不断走高、同时通胀预期已经提前反应并逼近历史上沿（《实际利率走高的含义与影响》）。\n不过节奏上，除非出现一些意料之外的交易层面因素，我们预期利率的下一波上行可能也要等待新的催化剂，例如拜登基建方案或者如果新一财年预算安排中包含大规模基建投资预算（预计4~5月），以及疫苗接种实现群体免疫的里程碑式进展等等。\n\n三、对市场和资产价格的潜在影响？短期有喘息、中长期决定于基本面\n毋庸置疑的是，短期利率上行的缓和对于市场将起到明显的喘息效果，这也是近期市场得以反弹的主要原因。\n但长期来看，虽然短期利率上行难免造成融资成本抬升、特别是快速上行会加大波动，但基本面仍是决定市场中长期走势的关键，因此，我们不认为在整体基本面继续向好甚至存在上行风险的背景下，单纯的利率走高或债券曲线熊陡会扭转整体市场趋势。\n四季度，美股盈利已经同比转正，而且修复速度超出预期，在上半年美国经济供需两旺的局面下，我们对于前两个季度美国盈利的修复依然保有信心（《美股盈利能否抵御利率上行扰动?》）。正如我们分析的2018年初美股市场因为债券利率骤升导致波动后的经验所示，市场在波动之后得益于税改后的盈利支撑还能够再创新高，直到10月初利率再创新高且基本面也开始逐步下行。要知道，2018年在多个方面还不如当前（例如当时处于加息周期和经济修复后周期、考虑到利率水平的风险溢价比当前更低、融资杠杆比现在还高等等）（《利率上行的扰动：来自2018年的经验》）。\n需要注意的是，实际利率的上行不利于黄金和高估值特别是“虚高”估值的表现，这也是近期美股道琼斯指数表现明显好于纳指、银行等价值股表现明显好于成长性板块的原因。不过一旦在利率上冲阶段性缓和时，价值股相比成长股的相对表现也很难一直维系（《实际利率走高的含义与影响》）。\n因此，我们维持在3月资产配置月报中的观点：短期从避险角度可以适当降低仓位并对冲风险，但维持股>大宗>黄金>债券排序，股票仍是相对首选，大宗商品大涨后计入预期过多建议部分获利，而债券和黄金仍不具备吸引力。欧洲疫苗接种依然缓慢以及美国新增财政刺激可能仍为美元指数提供支撑。股票内部，高估值成长股的相对收益和估值在利率走高背景下会有压力，反之亦然。\n\n四、未来的政策期待？OT>YCC\n近期利率快速上行导致的资产价格波动也使得市场对于美联储出手“干预”的期待明显升温，毕竟欧央行都已经在未来一个季度决定加大其PEPP（大流行病资产购买计划的购买速度，总规模1.85万亿欧元，目前已经累计购买8700亿欧元）。\n\n我们猜测，美联储目前依然对近期长端美债利率上行表现“淡定”可能是因为：一方面，在美联储看来近期利率上行是一个对增长向好驱动的良性预期推动、同时Powell不认为在未达到充分就业和产出缺口也依然很大的背景下通胀短期走高具有持续性；另一方面，虽然长端利率走高，但金融体系流动性都维持宽松状态，我们追踪的衡量一系列金融市场流动性环境的指标，如FRA-OIS、商业票据、信用利差等等，也都没有明显收紧。\n那么，如果接下来，例如在即将召开的3月FOMC会议上，如果美联储采取措施的话，有哪些选项呢？我们认为在当前环境下，相比收益率曲线控制（yield curve control，YCC），扭曲操作（operation twist）可能是相对更为便捷且有效的方式，而YCC对资产定价的扭曲可能更大且会导致实际购买规模的缩减。\n►扭曲操作，在目前情况下是相对最为便捷且有效的一种方式，而且QE购买规模将维持不变。由于较为短端利率锚定美联储基准利率保持基本不变，因此即便短期卖出短端，可能造成的响应相对有限。2011年采取扭曲操作即带来的长端利率下行的明显效果；\n\n►收益率曲线控制，反而可能造成实际的Taper和对资产定价更大的扭曲。参照日本央行此前推出YCC的经验（当然日本央行当时是为了避免过深的负利率而非压低利率），锚定某个价格点位而非数量目标可以起到明显的效果，即利率被完全锚定但实际所需的购买规模不断下降，等于Taper的效果。不过，这种完全锚定某个债券收益率点位的操作可能会“扭曲”市场定价，从中长期的推出角度可能会带来更大的麻烦；\n\n►延长对银行机构投资国债资本充足率豁免要求的到期。疫情期间，美联储为缓解国债市场流动性压力，允许大型金融机构可以不将持有国债纳入资本充足率计算中，但这一豁免3月底截止。截止三季度，美国银行机构持有国债1.3万亿美元，占到总存量规模的5.5%，相比疫情前新增2850亿美元。如果豁免取消的话，在美国银行目前资本充足率处于历史新高的背景下，可能更多体现为降低对国债的需求。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{".DJI":0.9,".IXIC":0.9,".SPX":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1659,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":320105796,"gmtCreate":1615033094615,"gmtModify":1704778303083,"author":{"id":"3573863078476577","authorId":"3573863078476577","name":"磐石533","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3acfdf718b918510c617d15517144155","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3573863078476577","authorIdStr":"3573863078476577"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"?","listText":"?","text":"?","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/320105796","repostId":"2117763076","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1933,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":381692357,"gmtCreate":1612959900379,"gmtModify":1704876534769,"author":{"id":"3573863078476577","authorId":"3573863078476577","name":"磐石533","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3acfdf718b918510c617d15517144155","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3573863078476577","authorIdStr":"3573863078476577"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"?","listText":"?","text":"?","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/381692357","repostId":"381881734","repostType":1,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2046,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":389168756,"gmtCreate":1612738574575,"gmtModify":1704873663174,"author":{"id":"3573863078476577","authorId":"3573863078476577","name":"磐石533","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3acfdf718b918510c617d15517144155","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3573863078476577","authorIdStr":"3573863078476577"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"?","listText":"?","text":"?","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/389168756","repostId":"2109715977","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"2109715977","kind":"highlight","pubTimestamp":1612683249,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/2109715977?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2021-02-07 15:34","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"Why U.S. interest rates are only likely to rise slightly in 2021","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2109715977","media":"金十数据","summary":"分析指出，持续的通胀压力最早也要到2022年才会出现。","content":"<p>Russel Investments believes that the Federal Reserve will continue to intervene in the Treasury Bond market until the U.S. economy fully recovers.</p><p>Earlier, the Federal Reserve announced that it would keep its overnight rate near zero. That's in line with expectations as millions of Americans remain unemployed and inflation remains below target, which the Fed wants to get to before raising interest rates. Russel Investments expects the Federal Reserve to withdraw its support for the economy before the beginning of 2024.</p><p>The level of long-term interest rates depends not only on the Fed's expected moves this year, but also on expectations in the coming years. Russel Investments believes that the yield on the 10-year U.S. Treasury Bond will remain between 1.1% and 1.6% by the end of 2021, i.e. the yield is only up slightly from current levels.</p><p>Russel Investments believes that the key to the 10-year U.S. Treasury Bond yield is when inflationary pressures will pose a threat to the benchmark interest rate and how long the Fed's $120 billion monthly bond purchase program will last.</p><p><b>01. The Fed wants higher inflation</b></p><p>Russel Investments said that for the stock market, the economic recovery phase tends to be a strong phase in the stock market cycle, because at this time the economy will grow significantly above average. But for the bond market, what is more important is the level of economic activity rather than the level of economic growth, because the level of economic activity is the driving force for inflation, and investors price bonds depend on inflation.</p><p>Russel Investments said that many people misunderstand the causes of inflation. Some may have heard of hyperinflation in Zimbabwe and therefore assume that printing money leads to runaway inflation and currency devaluation. But actually,<b><u>The process of inflation is a bit complicated</u></b>。</p><p>Simply put, inflation can be understood as a balance<b>Supply and demand</b>The way. For example, from the micro level, if a parent wants to buy an electronic product for his child, he needs to pay more than the suggested retail price of this electronic product, because the market demand is too large relative to the number of electronic products available, so the price will be pushed up.</p><p>At the macro level, economists use aggregate demand and aggregate supply to map the level of inflation. Aggregate demand is a function of consumer, business, and government spending (i.e. GDP); Aggregate supply is a function of the quantity and quality of people and machines that meet this demand. The chart below depicts the situation of the output gap, an aggregate metric that compares current demand with potential supply.</p><p><img src=\"https://cdn-news.jin10.com/fd1d56ed-fb0f-4278-a554-e424fd1a284a.png\" tg-width=\"875\" tg-height=\"493\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>When this line is above the level of zero, it indicates that inflationary pressures are building, Russel Investments said. When this line falls below the level of zero, it indicates that deflationary pressures are dominant. So the reason inflation slowed in early 2020 or early 2009 (when the Federal Reserve was printing money like crazy and the U.S. government was running massive fiscal stimulus) is simple, that is<b>Insufficient aggregate demand.</b></p><p><b>02. Inflation is unlikely to continue to rise until next year</b></p><p>Russel Investments said that despite large-scale fiscal stimulus measures and the gradual recovery of the economy, aggregate demand is still weak, especially for the service industry.</p><p>Russel Investments expects that strong economic growth in 2021 will help the United States get out of its current predicament faster than it did during the 2008 financial crisis.</p><p>Separately, it's worth noting that inflation is likely to soar in the short term later this year as more pandemic-related restrictions are lifted and pent-up consumer demand is being released.</p><p>Powell said the same thing at last week's Fed policy meeting, emphasizing that<b><u>The rapid surge in inflation will be short-lived, not lasting.</u></b></p><p>Russel Investments agrees and believes that<b><u>Persistent inflationary pressures won't occur until 2022 at the earliest</u></b>。 The reason Russel Investments came to this view is that their model shows that the U.S. core consumer price index inflation measure (PCE), which is the measure of inflation commonly used by the Federal Reserve, is expected to hit 1.8% by the end of the year.</p><p><img src=\"https://cdn-news.jin10.com/35bc3b74-794e-4042-a092-844302e2299f.png\" tg-width=\"1064\" tg-height=\"645\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>As can be seen from the above chart, the level of 1.8% is lower than the Fed's inflation target. For much of the past decade, inflation has been below the Fed's target level. But the Fed is trying to keep inflation above target, so that means the Fed's easing policy will last longer.</p>","source":"xnew_highlight","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Why U.S. interest rates are only likely to rise slightly in 2021</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nWhy U.S. interest rates are only likely to rise slightly in 2021\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">金十数据</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-02-07 15:34</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>Russel Investments believes that the Federal Reserve will continue to intervene in the Treasury Bond market until the U.S. economy fully recovers.</p><p>Earlier, the Federal Reserve announced that it would keep its overnight rate near zero. That's in line with expectations as millions of Americans remain unemployed and inflation remains below target, which the Fed wants to get to before raising interest rates. Russel Investments expects the Federal Reserve to withdraw its support for the economy before the beginning of 2024.</p><p>The level of long-term interest rates depends not only on the Fed's expected moves this year, but also on expectations in the coming years. Russel Investments believes that the yield on the 10-year U.S. Treasury Bond will remain between 1.1% and 1.6% by the end of 2021, i.e. the yield is only up slightly from current levels.</p><p>Russel Investments believes that the key to the 10-year U.S. Treasury Bond yield is when inflationary pressures will pose a threat to the benchmark interest rate and how long the Fed's $120 billion monthly bond purchase program will last.</p><p><b>01. The Fed wants higher inflation</b></p><p>Russel Investments said that for the stock market, the economic recovery phase tends to be a strong phase in the stock market cycle, because at this time the economy will grow significantly above average. But for the bond market, what is more important is the level of economic activity rather than the level of economic growth, because the level of economic activity is the driving force for inflation, and investors price bonds depend on inflation.</p><p>Russel Investments said that many people misunderstand the causes of inflation. Some may have heard of hyperinflation in Zimbabwe and therefore assume that printing money leads to runaway inflation and currency devaluation. But actually,<b><u>The process of inflation is a bit complicated</u></b>。</p><p>Simply put, inflation can be understood as a balance<b>Supply and demand</b>The way. For example, from the micro level, if a parent wants to buy an electronic product for his child, he needs to pay more than the suggested retail price of this electronic product, because the market demand is too large relative to the number of electronic products available, so the price will be pushed up.</p><p>At the macro level, economists use aggregate demand and aggregate supply to map the level of inflation. Aggregate demand is a function of consumer, business, and government spending (i.e. GDP); Aggregate supply is a function of the quantity and quality of people and machines that meet this demand. The chart below depicts the situation of the output gap, an aggregate metric that compares current demand with potential supply.</p><p><img src=\"https://cdn-news.jin10.com/fd1d56ed-fb0f-4278-a554-e424fd1a284a.png\" tg-width=\"875\" tg-height=\"493\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>When this line is above the level of zero, it indicates that inflationary pressures are building, Russel Investments said. When this line falls below the level of zero, it indicates that deflationary pressures are dominant. So the reason inflation slowed in early 2020 or early 2009 (when the Federal Reserve was printing money like crazy and the U.S. government was running massive fiscal stimulus) is simple, that is<b>Insufficient aggregate demand.</b></p><p><b>02. Inflation is unlikely to continue to rise until next year</b></p><p>Russel Investments said that despite large-scale fiscal stimulus measures and the gradual recovery of the economy, aggregate demand is still weak, especially for the service industry.</p><p>Russel Investments expects that strong economic growth in 2021 will help the United States get out of its current predicament faster than it did during the 2008 financial crisis.</p><p>Separately, it's worth noting that inflation is likely to soar in the short term later this year as more pandemic-related restrictions are lifted and pent-up consumer demand is being released.</p><p>Powell said the same thing at last week's Fed policy meeting, emphasizing that<b><u>The rapid surge in inflation will be short-lived, not lasting.</u></b></p><p>Russel Investments agrees and believes that<b><u>Persistent inflationary pressures won't occur until 2022 at the earliest</u></b>。 The reason Russel Investments came to this view is that their model shows that the U.S. core consumer price index inflation measure (PCE), which is the measure of inflation commonly used by the Federal Reserve, is expected to hit 1.8% by the end of the year.</p><p><img src=\"https://cdn-news.jin10.com/35bc3b74-794e-4042-a092-844302e2299f.png\" tg-width=\"1064\" tg-height=\"645\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>As can be seen from the above chart, the level of 1.8% is lower than the Fed's inflation target. For much of the past decade, inflation has been below the Fed's target level. But the Fed is trying to keep inflation above target, so that means the Fed's easing policy will last longer.</p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> source：<a href=\"https://xnews.jin10.com/webapp/details.html?id=70359&type=news\">金十数据</a></p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://cdn-news.jin10.com/a36f8655-538e-47bb-a0fe-411946e25222.png/lite","relate_stocks":{},"source_url":"https://xnews.jin10.com/webapp/details.html?id=70359&type=news","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2109715977","content_text":"Russel Investments认为，在美国经济完全复苏之前，美联储还将继续干预国债市场。此前，美联储宣布将其隔夜利率保持在零附近的水平。这符合预期，因为数以百万计的美国人仍然没有工作，通货膨胀率仍然低于目标，而美联储希望在上调利率前使通胀达到预期目标。Russel Investments预计在2024年年初之前，美联储可能撤回对经济的支撑。长期利率的水平不仅取决于美联储今年的预期举措，还取决于未来几年的预期。Russel Investments认为，到2021年底，10年期美国国债的收益率将维持在1.1%至1.6%之间，即收益率仅较当前水平小幅上升。Russel Investments认为，对于10年期美国国债收益率，关键在于通胀压力什么时候将对基准利率构成威胁，以及美联储每月1200亿美元的购债计划还将持续多久。01、美联储希望通胀水平更高Russel Investments表示，对于股市来说，经济复苏阶段往往是股市周期中强劲的阶段，因为此时经济的增长将显著高于平均水平。但对债券市场而言，更重要的是经济活动水平而不是经济增长水平，因为经济活动水平是驱动通胀的动力，而投资者为债券定价又取决于通胀。Russel Investments称，有很多人误解了通胀的原因。有些人可能听说过津巴布韦的恶性通货膨胀，因此认为印钞会导致失控的通货膨胀和货币贬值。但实际上，通胀的发生过程有点复杂。简单来说，可以把通货膨胀理解为一种平衡供给和需求的方式。比如从微观层面来说，如果家长想给孩子买一台电子产品，那么他需要付出高于这台电子产品建议零售价的钱，因为相对于可供应的电子产品数量来说，市场的需求太大了，所以价格会被推高。在宏观层面上，经济学家使用总需求和总供给来描绘通货膨胀水平。总需求是消费者、企业和政府支出（即GDP）的函数；总供给是满足这种需求的人和机器的数量和质量的函数。下图描绘了产出缺口的情况，即一种比较当前需求与潜在供应的汇总指标。Russel Investments说，当这条线高于零的水平时，表明通胀压力正在累积。当这条线低于零的水平时，表明通缩压力占据主导地位。因此，通胀率在2020年初或2009年初（当时美联储在疯狂印钞，而美国政府实行大规模财政刺激措施）放缓的原因很简单，那就是总需求不足。02、通胀在明年之前不太可能持续上升Russel Investments表示，如今虽然有大规模的财政刺激措施，经济也逐渐复苏，但总需求仍然疲弱，特别是对于服务业的需求。Russel Investments预计，2021年经济的强劲增长将有助于美国比2008年金融危机时更快地摆脱当前的困境。另外，值得注意的是，随着更多与疫情相关的限制措施的取消，被压抑的消费需求正在释放，今年晚些时候通胀可能会在短期内飙升。鲍威尔在上周的美联储政策会议上也说了同样的话，他强调通胀的迅速飙升都将是短暂的，而不是持久的。Russel Investments对此表示认同，并认为持续的通胀压力最早也要到2022年才会出现。Russel Investments得出这一观点的原因是，他们的模型显示美国核心个人消费价格指数通胀指标（PCE）预期到今年年底将触及1.8%，该指标是美联储通常使用的衡量通胀的指标。而从上图可以看出，1.8%的水平低于美联储的通胀目标。在过去十年的大部分时间里，通胀率都低于美联储的目标水平。但美联储正试图使通胀率高于目标水平，因此这意味着美联储的宽松政策将持续更长的时间。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"TNmain":0.9,"ZTmain":0.9,"UBmain":0.9,"ZBmain":0.9,"ZFmain":0.9,"ZNmain":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1478,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":380744368,"gmtCreate":1612603895154,"gmtModify":1704873182668,"author":{"id":"3573863078476577","authorId":"3573863078476577","name":"磐石533","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3acfdf718b918510c617d15517144155","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3573863078476577","authorIdStr":"3573863078476577"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"?","listText":"?","text":"?","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/380744368","repostId":"380736127","repostType":1,"repost":{"id":380736127,"gmtCreate":1612587110769,"gmtModify":1704873097008,"author":{"id":"3488157435400312","authorId":"3488157435400312","name":"GPLP犀牛财经","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/14abc57b2bc335b01ce8f7df19813f91","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3488157435400312","authorIdStr":"3488157435400312"},"themes":[],"title":"年輕人正如何向“第四消費時代”過渡","htmlText":"作者：李東耳來源：GPLP犀牛財經（ID:gplpcn）在日本作家三浦展的《第四消費時代》一書當中，他詳細描述了第四消費時代的特徵：在第四消費時代，人們普遍重視“共享”，從崇尚時尚、奢侈品，經歷注重質量和舒適度，進而過渡到迴歸內心的滿足感，從崇尚歐美、嚮往都市到地方意識。在全球範圍內，不僅在日本，包括美國在內都同樣經歷了這個過程，如今，種種跡象表明，中國也正在向“第四消費時代”過渡。二手閒置平臺閒魚發佈了一組新現象，提到了爲AirPod找另一半、小樣女孩、特斯拉冷靜期、閒魚式脫粉、代過春節……這些新現象都證明，年輕消費者開始不斷重視“共享”，引領新閒置消費，並且大家對於消費迴歸到了質量及舒適度爲主，同時兼顧情感及內心的滿足。中國向第四消費時代過渡現實表明，中國的第四消費時代正在由Z世代引領。對於Z世代來講，在閒魚消費不僅成爲年輕人的潮流，更是他們消費習慣最真實的註解。據閒魚相關報告顯示，在閒魚平臺上，目前有超過60%的用戶爲90後，其中35%爲95後（Z世代）。與日本向第四消費時代過渡時相似的是，當下，我國的消費市場也在發生着改變，三四線城市的消費還在持續升級，一二線城市的消費開始逐漸理性。回顧日本向第四消費時代過渡時，年輕人對消費市場格局的變化起着至關重要的影響。一個重要的變化就是年輕人們不再盲目追求高檔消費品，而是轉向一些中低端品牌。90年代末，日本掀起了一次LV熱潮，一度熱到了沒有LV都不好意思出門的情況。但到了2010年前後，LV卻突然失寵，甚至被打上了“鄉下人”、“暴發戶”的標籤。LV失寵的同時，從羞於穿出門到新款被搶購一空，優衣庫卻在日本崛起。有趣的是，LV在日本的遭遇正在國內重演。國內市場上的高檔奢侈品雖然銷量還在提升，但增速卻被不少中低端品牌吊打，不少曾經被嫌棄的國貨品牌正在逐漸被年輕消費者們認可，在中國的消費品行業掀起了一輪國貨潮。比如，成立於1927年的","listText":"作者：李東耳來源：GPLP犀牛財經（ID:gplpcn）在日本作家三浦展的《第四消費時代》一書當中，他詳細描述了第四消費時代的特徵：在第四消費時代，人們普遍重視“共享”，從崇尚時尚、奢侈品，經歷注重質量和舒適度，進而過渡到迴歸內心的滿足感，從崇尚歐美、嚮往都市到地方意識。在全球範圍內，不僅在日本，包括美國在內都同樣經歷了這個過程，如今，種種跡象表明，中國也正在向“第四消費時代”過渡。二手閒置平臺閒魚發佈了一組新現象，提到了爲AirPod找另一半、小樣女孩、特斯拉冷靜期、閒魚式脫粉、代過春節……這些新現象都證明，年輕消費者開始不斷重視“共享”，引領新閒置消費，並且大家對於消費迴歸到了質量及舒適度爲主，同時兼顧情感及內心的滿足。中國向第四消費時代過渡現實表明，中國的第四消費時代正在由Z世代引領。對於Z世代來講，在閒魚消費不僅成爲年輕人的潮流，更是他們消費習慣最真實的註解。據閒魚相關報告顯示，在閒魚平臺上，目前有超過60%的用戶爲90後，其中35%爲95後（Z世代）。與日本向第四消費時代過渡時相似的是，當下，我國的消費市場也在發生着改變，三四線城市的消費還在持續升級，一二線城市的消費開始逐漸理性。回顧日本向第四消費時代過渡時，年輕人對消費市場格局的變化起着至關重要的影響。一個重要的變化就是年輕人們不再盲目追求高檔消費品，而是轉向一些中低端品牌。90年代末，日本掀起了一次LV熱潮，一度熱到了沒有LV都不好意思出門的情況。但到了2010年前後，LV卻突然失寵，甚至被打上了“鄉下人”、“暴發戶”的標籤。LV失寵的同時，從羞於穿出門到新款被搶購一空，優衣庫卻在日本崛起。有趣的是，LV在日本的遭遇正在國內重演。國內市場上的高檔奢侈品雖然銷量還在提升，但增速卻被不少中低端品牌吊打，不少曾經被嫌棄的國貨品牌正在逐漸被年輕消費者們認可，在中國的消費品行業掀起了一輪國貨潮。比如，成立於1927年的","text":"作者：李東耳來源：GPLP犀牛財經（ID:gplpcn）在日本作家三浦展的《第四消費時代》一書當中，他詳細描述了第四消費時代的特徵：在第四消費時代，人們普遍重視“共享”，從崇尚時尚、奢侈品，經歷注重質量和舒適度，進而過渡到迴歸內心的滿足感，從崇尚歐美、嚮往都市到地方意識。在全球範圍內，不僅在日本，包括美國在內都同樣經歷了這個過程，如今，種種跡象表明，中國也正在向“第四消費時代”過渡。二手閒置平臺閒魚發佈了一組新現象，提到了爲AirPod找另一半、小樣女孩、特斯拉冷靜期、閒魚式脫粉、代過春節……這些新現象都證明，年輕消費者開始不斷重視“共享”，引領新閒置消費，並且大家對於消費迴歸到了質量及舒適度爲主，同時兼顧情感及內心的滿足。中國向第四消費時代過渡現實表明，中國的第四消費時代正在由Z世代引領。對於Z世代來講，在閒魚消費不僅成爲年輕人的潮流，更是他們消費習慣最真實的註解。據閒魚相關報告顯示，在閒魚平臺上，目前有超過60%的用戶爲90後，其中35%爲95後（Z世代）。與日本向第四消費時代過渡時相似的是，當下，我國的消費市場也在發生着改變，三四線城市的消費還在持續升級，一二線城市的消費開始逐漸理性。回顧日本向第四消費時代過渡時，年輕人對消費市場格局的變化起着至關重要的影響。一個重要的變化就是年輕人們不再盲目追求高檔消費品，而是轉向一些中低端品牌。90年代末，日本掀起了一次LV熱潮，一度熱到了沒有LV都不好意思出門的情況。但到了2010年前後，LV卻突然失寵，甚至被打上了“鄉下人”、“暴發戶”的標籤。LV失寵的同時，從羞於穿出門到新款被搶購一空，優衣庫卻在日本崛起。有趣的是，LV在日本的遭遇正在國內重演。國內市場上的高檔奢侈品雖然銷量還在提升，但增速卻被不少中低端品牌吊打，不少曾經被嫌棄的國貨品牌正在逐漸被年輕消費者們認可，在中國的消費品行業掀起了一輪國貨潮。比如，成立於1927年的","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3178ef036459abe295cb647611545ecb","width":"688","height":"491"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":2,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/380736127","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":0,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":2,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1985,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":314270851,"gmtCreate":1612359560373,"gmtModify":1704870144383,"author":{"id":"3573863078476577","authorId":"3573863078476577","name":"磐石533","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3acfdf718b918510c617d15517144155","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3573863078476577","authorIdStr":"3573863078476577"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"???????????","listText":"???????????","text":"???????????","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/314270851","repostId":"2108221700","repostType":2,"isVote":1,"tweetType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編輯：小市妹問：姥爺經常說好公司都顯而易見，盡人皆知。但是有些全國乃至全球性的細分行業龍頭公司，其實知名度並不高，堪稱中國經濟和A股中的隱形冠軍。在姥爺看來，有哪些公司可以稱爲隱形冠軍，值得投資者重點關注？財姥爺：顯而易見的好公司，主要是大的行業賽道里直接面向消費者的公司。比如社交領域的騰訊，電商領域的阿里、京東、拼多多、美團，家電領域的格力、美的，食品領域的海天味業和農夫山泉等等。這些萬億市場裏的龍頭企業，其產品在日常生活中被消費者廣泛使用，因此具備家喻戶曉的知名度，市值基本也是幾千億甚至幾萬億級別。你所謂的隱形冠軍，主要是在細分行業賽道爲企業客戶服務的公司。這些行業主要包括化工、工程機械、汽車零部件、建築建材、半導體以及新能源等，基本都位於上中游產業鏈。這些公司雖然在行業內有極高的地位，業績和股價表現也很好，但是其產品消費者一般不太熟悉，社會知名度也不會太高，屬於悶聲發財的類型。A股中隱性冠軍其實不少，今天先簡單介紹幾家：北新建材，建材石膏板龍頭，石膏板全球產能市佔率達到60%，過去三年平均ROE25%；東方雨虹，建材防水材料龍頭，國內市佔率超過13%，遠高於第二名，最近三年平均ROE超過20%；萬華化學，化工聚氨酯龍頭，主營產品爲MDI和TDI和聚氨酯，其MDI產能全球第一，聚氨酯銷量佔全球23%，過去三年平均ROE高達38%；浙江龍盛，化工染料龍頭，主營產品爲分散染料和活性染料，染料產量佔全國市場25%，分散染料產能全球第一，過去三年平均ROE17%；浙江鼎立，工程機械高空作業平臺龍頭，國內品牌no1，全球市佔率2.2%，距全球龍頭還有較遠距離，有巨大份額提升空間，過去三年平均ROE18%；恆立液壓，工程機械高壓油缸龍頭，其中挖掘機油缸國內市佔率超過50%，小挖泵閥市佔率近30%，過去三年平均ROE18%；福耀玻璃，汽車玻璃龍頭，全球市場佔有率27%，","listText":"作者：財姥爺 編輯：小市妹問：姥爺經常說好公司都顯而易見，盡人皆知。但是有些全國乃至全球性的細分行業龍頭公司，其實知名度並不高，堪稱中國經濟和A股中的隱形冠軍。在姥爺看來，有哪些公司可以稱爲隱形冠軍，值得投資者重點關注？財姥爺：顯而易見的好公司，主要是大的行業賽道里直接面向消費者的公司。比如社交領域的騰訊，電商領域的阿里、京東、拼多多、美團，家電領域的格力、美的，食品領域的海天味業和農夫山泉等等。這些萬億市場裏的龍頭企業，其產品在日常生活中被消費者廣泛使用，因此具備家喻戶曉的知名度，市值基本也是幾千億甚至幾萬億級別。你所謂的隱形冠軍，主要是在細分行業賽道爲企業客戶服務的公司。這些行業主要包括化工、工程機械、汽車零部件、建築建材、半導體以及新能源等，基本都位於上中游產業鏈。這些公司雖然在行業內有極高的地位，業績和股價表現也很好，但是其產品消費者一般不太熟悉，社會知名度也不會太高，屬於悶聲發財的類型。A股中隱性冠軍其實不少，今天先簡單介紹幾家：北新建材，建材石膏板龍頭，石膏板全球產能市佔率達到60%，過去三年平均ROE25%；東方雨虹，建材防水材料龍頭，國內市佔率超過13%，遠高於第二名，最近三年平均ROE超過20%；萬華化學，化工聚氨酯龍頭，主營產品爲MDI和TDI和聚氨酯，其MDI產能全球第一，聚氨酯銷量佔全球23%，過去三年平均ROE高達38%；浙江龍盛，化工染料龍頭，主營產品爲分散染料和活性染料，染料產量佔全國市場25%，分散染料產能全球第一，過去三年平均ROE17%；浙江鼎立，工程機械高空作業平臺龍頭，國內品牌no1，全球市佔率2.2%，距全球龍頭還有較遠距離，有巨大份額提升空間，過去三年平均ROE18%；恆立液壓，工程機械高壓油缸龍頭，其中挖掘機油缸國內市佔率超過50%，小挖泵閥市佔率近30%，過去三年平均ROE18%；福耀玻璃，汽車玻璃龍頭，全球市場佔有率27%，","text":"作者：財姥爺 編輯：小市妹問：姥爺經常說好公司都顯而易見，盡人皆知。但是有些全國乃至全球性的細分行業龍頭公司，其實知名度並不高，堪稱中國經濟和A股中的隱形冠軍。在姥爺看來，有哪些公司可以稱爲隱形冠軍，值得投資者重點關注？財姥爺：顯而易見的好公司，主要是大的行業賽道里直接面向消費者的公司。比如社交領域的騰訊，電商領域的阿里、京東、拼多多、美團，家電領域的格力、美的，食品領域的海天味業和農夫山泉等等。這些萬億市場裏的龍頭企業，其產品在日常生活中被消費者廣泛使用，因此具備家喻戶曉的知名度，市值基本也是幾千億甚至幾萬億級別。你所謂的隱形冠軍，主要是在細分行業賽道爲企業客戶服務的公司。這些行業主要包括化工、工程機械、汽車零部件、建築建材、半導體以及新能源等，基本都位於上中游產業鏈。這些公司雖然在行業內有極高的地位，業績和股價表現也很好，但是其產品消費者一般不太熟悉，社會知名度也不會太高，屬於悶聲發財的類型。A股中隱性冠軍其實不少，今天先簡單介紹幾家：北新建材，建材石膏板龍頭，石膏板全球產能市佔率達到60%，過去三年平均ROE25%；東方雨虹，建材防水材料龍頭，國內市佔率超過13%，遠高於第二名，最近三年平均ROE超過20%；萬華化學，化工聚氨酯龍頭，主營產品爲MDI和TDI和聚氨酯，其MDI產能全球第一，聚氨酯銷量佔全球23%，過去三年平均ROE高達38%；浙江龍盛，化工染料龍頭，主營產品爲分散染料和活性染料，染料產量佔全國市場25%，分散染料產能全球第一，過去三年平均ROE17%；浙江鼎立，工程機械高空作業平臺龍頭，國內品牌no1，全球市佔率2.2%，距全球龍頭還有較遠距離，有巨大份額提升空間，過去三年平均ROE18%；恆立液壓，工程機械高壓油缸龍頭，其中挖掘機油缸國內市佔率超過50%，小挖泵閥市佔率近30%，過去三年平均ROE18%；福耀玻璃，汽車玻璃龍頭，全球市場佔有率27%，","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/bd4449beb7c97e52c42592303d73e9b0","width":"688","height":"293"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":2,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/312306111","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":0,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":477,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":319641132,"gmtCreate":1611583280426,"gmtModify":1704860963718,"author":{"id":"3573863078476577","authorId":"3573863078476577","name":"磐石533","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3acfdf718b918510c617d15517144155","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3573863078476577","authorIdStr":"3573863078476577"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"?","listText":"?","text":"?","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/319641132","repostId":"1141326151","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1141326151","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1611582126,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1141326151?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2021-01-25 21:42","market":"sh","language":"zh","title":"In the next 10 years, the investment market will focus on three major directions","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1141326151","media":"GGV纪源资本","summary":"2020年，中国甚至全球的任何一个行业、领域，包括投资市场，都被一个主旋律贯穿——新冠疫情。然而，疫情并不代表停滞、萎缩，在疫情之下，投资市场其实蕴藏着巨大的机遇，酝酿着一场新的变革。\n作为投资机构，","content":"<p><i>In 2020, any industry and field in China and even the world, including the investment market, will be run through by a main theme-COVID-19 pandemic. However, the epidemic does not mean stagnation or shrinkage. Under the epidemic, the investment market actually contains huge opportunities and a new change is brewing.</i></p><p><i>As an investment institution, it is particularly important to adjust and manage Portfolio, avoid risks, and discover new investment opportunities in time during the epidemic. It was at the beginning of the domestic epidemic that we realized the seriousness of the situation in time, and made preparations to enter the \"combat\" state.</i></p><p><i>During this period, we have paid more attention to the previously optimistic educational technology, entertainment and health technology, as well as enterprise services that \"help companies move R&D processes online\". However, the previously popular robot industry, although its development is limited in the short term, but there are opportunities in the long run. Especially during the epidemic, the work and lifestyle of home office for all people has greatly promoted the development of online education and entertainment-related industries. Even in the field of enterprise automation, although there is great uncertainty, the development momentum is positive in the long run. Of course, more importantly, enterprises must survive before they can see and explore opportunities. This is another story.</i></p><p><i>While analyzing the situation of Portfolio, the invested enterprises, increasing revenue and reducing expenditure, we also promptly asked the invested enterprises to pay attention to the latest information on the epidemic, and at the same time passed on the news to partners such as the United States and Italy who had not yet broken out at that time, as well as raw material and accessories suppliers, etc., so that they can either seize the time to raise funds or end unfinished projects as soon as possible. This also allows the invested enterprises to quickly adjust their strategies before the global large-scale outbreak, and make sufficient preparations for products and supply chains.</i></p><p><i>On the other hand, when the epidemic breaks out, another important measure we take to avoid risks is to shift our focus. Under normal circumstances, the investment work mainly involves several aspects of \"fundraising, management, investment and withdrawal\". However, when the Q1 epidemic broke out, we put \"management\" on the agenda. Basically, we didn't look at too many new deals, and first managed the project at hand. By Q2, China has slowly entered a state of recovery, and then returned part of its energy to \"investment\".</i></p><p><i>From the perspective of \"investment\", the epidemic has accelerated digital and intelligent technologies. Since Q2, we have accelerated investment in education, automation, enterprise services and other sectors, because under the catalysis of the epidemic, it will only take 3-5 years to see returns. For projects with returns, it may be shortened to 1-2 years to see returns.</i></p><p><i>Our global layout and global vision have laid the foundation for the company's good development in 2020. Therefore, in the evaluation of invested companies at the end of the year, the results were unexpectedly good. In Q1, 86% of the companies we invested in had cash flow of more than 12 months, the proportion in Q2 even rose to 94%, and overall, our investment scale in Q2 and Q3 of 2020, both in terms of amount and number of projects, actually exceeded that of the whole year of 2019.</i></p><p><i>It can be seen that a large part of our good performance during the epidemic should be attributed to the global perspective. We not only pay attention to China's trends, but also pay attention to the global macro situation and make timely adjustments. In fact, this is also the advice I want to give to investors and entrepreneurs. As start-ups and entrepreneurs, you should have a global vision and overall awareness at the start-up stage. It is far from enough to only pay attention to micro-trends. It is necessary to always be alert to changes in global economic and political dynamics.</i></p><p><i>In my opinion, sometimes the market seems pessimistic, but in fact there is a dawn in a certain corner. As an entrepreneur, you need to let yourself out of the stage where you can see the dawn. This is the foresight that all investment companies should have.</i></p><p><i><b>1.</b></i><i><b>Several promising trends in the past</b></i></p><p><b>Technology trends in 2019 remain unchanged but will accelerate due to the pandemic</b></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e2ead4b66bde34cff32a10d1eee9e197\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"443\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">Looking back on 2020, I focused more on promoting the development of new business segments through technological reform. Overall, compared with 2019,<b>Several technological trends that I am optimistic about in 2020 have not only remained unchanged, but have also accelerated due to the epidemic. These directions include transportation, logistics, smart cities, and consumer services.</b></p><p><i><b>1. Transformation of transportation</b></i></p><p><b>With the support of new infrastructure policies, the transportation industry continues to evolve. The underlying infrastructure supports the transformation of transportation modes. Shared/autonomous driving and land-air autonomous driving technologies are further developed: such as charging, batteries and upgrades of physical infrastructure such as parking.</b></p><p><i><b>2. Logistics and distribution</b></i></p><p><b>The epidemic has greatly catalyzed the development of new automated logistics technologies such as machine automation and warehousing robots. Freight logistics, warehousing logistics, grocery and food automation have been implemented in many scenarios.</b>For example, in terms of food delivery robots, there are already some startups in the United States trying new models, and there are also some in China, but more of them have undergone greater changes in logistics and distribution. The scenarios will be different, but the basic technical modules are similar, except whether the automatic navigation is indoors or outdoors, or the speed is different. All this is due to the progress of underlying \"hard-core technologies\" such as sensors, batteries, chips and systems, controllers and cloud technology.</p><p><i><b>3. Smart City</b></i></p><p><b>New smart cities have reshaped the way of transportation and automation, changing people's daily lives, and industrial, commercial and home robots have penetrated into all aspects of people's lives.</b>I have been paying attention to this field since 2014. In 2019, we believed that its development momentum was strong, and the epidemic has accelerated the layout of smart cities in the United States, China, and Southeast Asia. By 2021, I am still very optimistic about the development in this direction.</p><p><i><b>4. Consumer server evolution</b></i></p><p>Many people may question that there are already too many games and social products in China. Is there no chance for consumer services?<b>But actually, I think there is more room for consumer services domestically.</b></p><p>Among them, educational technology is one of the next key directions in consumer services, because in addition to consuming content videos, knowledge and learning will be the consumption directions of adults and K12.<b>Seeing the shortcomings of the education 1.0 era, we began to deploy in this field 4 or 5 years ago, thinking about how to transform the education model through new technological elements such as AI, real-time technology, immersion technology, cloud, and product composition, and complete the real educational mission. There will be more evolution on the consumer side in the future, and educational technology is one of the important sections.</b></p><p>At the same time, the next generation of new entertainment technology is also another section of the consumer server that I see that may undergo changes. Real-time, immersive and cloud will shape new entertainment methods for film and television production, drones, AI editing, Virtual engines, etc., have great potential for continuous layout in real-time interaction, live game broadcast, and VR virtual world technology. It is expected that in the next five years, the development process of new entertainment technology will be faster.</p><p><i><b>5. More enterprise software and process technology</b></i></p><p>Another direction is the related fields of enterprise software process technology.<b>I simply divide the things involved in this field into two categories. From the technical level, it is cloud, SaaS and security, that is, from productization to process management for small and medium-sized enterprises; The second category is DPA (Digital Process Automation), which involves the use of new technologies such as low-code and no-code to automate and digitize management processes.</b></p><p>This is actually not a new field, but there will be some new adjustments every 3-5 years. I think that when the United States, China and Southeast Asia enter the enterprise-centered era, technical automation software, algorithms and solutions will be promoted to the top, and HR, CRM, OPR, low-code, and no-code software will become the key words for the development of enterprise software and process technology.</p><p><b>In summary, digital automation solutions enable enterprise organizations to automate one or more enterprise processes using digital technologies, and DPA can achieve this through advanced technologies such as machine learning, RPA, and AI.</b></p><p><i><b>Two,</b></i><i><b><i><b>Down</b></i></b></i><i><b>A 10-year promising development trend</b></i></p><p><b>In the next 10 years, the consumer service side will evolve, food and health technology will emerge, more enterprise software, process technology</b></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5c65a9c7b44a91d6fc9520a0aeec8a9c\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"435\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">In addition to these major technology-driven areas that I have focused on in the past,<b>In the next 10 years, I will also focus on food technology and health technology.</b></p><p><i><b>1. The emergence of food technology</b></i></p><p>At present, although food health technology is still in an early stage of development, in the next 5-10 years, I expect that the United States, China or Southeast Asia may see more new unicorns emerge.</p><p><b>The reason is very simple. Food science and technology has high technological content, and there are opportunities in all aspects from food mention to automated processing.</b>The food supply problems exposed during the epidemic when global logistics was not circulating have made many countries realize the importance of independent food supply and begin to think about whether there can be food substitutes. This may not be important in normal times, but during the epidemic, the issue of food supply will come to the forefront.</p><p><b>Specifically, from farming methods (such as hydroponics), harvesting methods (such as automation), production processes (such as central kitchen) to food substitution (such as cells, plants, etc.), the entire food health industry chain will undergo tremendous changes.</b></p><p><i><b>2. Health technology attracts attention</b></i></p><p>Health technology also contains many opportunities,<b>The reason why health technology is important is that everyone's health awareness is improving all over the world. Whether it is health monitoring, disease treatment, review, healthy food and health care, people are concerned about it. We will continue to pay attention to this field and accelerate investment.</b></p><p>Three directions can be summarized in health technology: the first direction is to use AI and Internet technology for remote consultation and communication with doctors;</p><p>The second direction is to use AI and Internet technology for condition analysis and diagnosis, and use robots for surgery;</p><p>The third direction is to use AI and algorithms to accelerate the development of new drugs, such as vaccine research and development, use algorithms for genetic testing and analysis to accelerate the development of new drugs, and use them to prevent diseases. These will become valuable development directions in the field of health science and technology.</p><p><b>Three,</b><i><b>Three major trends likely to happen in the market in 2021</b></i></p><p><b>From the business and market level, startup founders need to pay more attention to the macro market and environment in 2021, because this will affect our micro decisions at any time.</b>In my opinion, there are three major trends to focus on in 2021:</p><p>First, offline businesses, such as retail, hotels and other industries, will undergo tremendous changes. Many companies may close down or be integrated. After 2021, it is expected that more bad news will come out;</p><p>The second trend is that the Internet industry will enter a state of merger. The integration of capital in 2021 will enter the second half. In the first half, many companies have constant financing news, but in the second half, small businesses may actually encounter financing difficulties. When the business and brand cannot keep up, they will enter a vicious circle, and the relatively mature Internet industry will also undergo integration and merger;</p><p>Third, Internet giants may be spun off, because the excessive scale of enterprises will cause some problems. While risks increase, capital efficiency may not be high. The spin-off of business can not only ensure that capital can operate better, but also Improve team management efficiency.</p>","source":"lsy1595332659624","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>In the next 10 years, the investment market will focus on three major directions</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nIn the next 10 years, the investment market will focus on three major directions\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">GGV纪源资本</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-01-25 21:42</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><i>In 2020, any industry and field in China and even the world, including the investment market, will be run through by a main theme-COVID-19 pandemic. However, the epidemic does not mean stagnation or shrinkage. Under the epidemic, the investment market actually contains huge opportunities and a new change is brewing.</i></p><p><i>As an investment institution, it is particularly important to adjust and manage Portfolio, avoid risks, and discover new investment opportunities in time during the epidemic. It was at the beginning of the domestic epidemic that we realized the seriousness of the situation in time, and made preparations to enter the \"combat\" state.</i></p><p><i>During this period, we have paid more attention to the previously optimistic educational technology, entertainment and health technology, as well as enterprise services that \"help companies move R&D processes online\". However, the previously popular robot industry, although its development is limited in the short term, but there are opportunities in the long run. Especially during the epidemic, the work and lifestyle of home office for all people has greatly promoted the development of online education and entertainment-related industries. Even in the field of enterprise automation, although there is great uncertainty, the development momentum is positive in the long run. Of course, more importantly, enterprises must survive before they can see and explore opportunities. This is another story.</i></p><p><i>While analyzing the situation of Portfolio, the invested enterprises, increasing revenue and reducing expenditure, we also promptly asked the invested enterprises to pay attention to the latest information on the epidemic, and at the same time passed on the news to partners such as the United States and Italy who had not yet broken out at that time, as well as raw material and accessories suppliers, etc., so that they can either seize the time to raise funds or end unfinished projects as soon as possible. This also allows the invested enterprises to quickly adjust their strategies before the global large-scale outbreak, and make sufficient preparations for products and supply chains.</i></p><p><i>On the other hand, when the epidemic breaks out, another important measure we take to avoid risks is to shift our focus. Under normal circumstances, the investment work mainly involves several aspects of \"fundraising, management, investment and withdrawal\". However, when the Q1 epidemic broke out, we put \"management\" on the agenda. Basically, we didn't look at too many new deals, and first managed the project at hand. By Q2, China has slowly entered a state of recovery, and then returned part of its energy to \"investment\".</i></p><p><i>From the perspective of \"investment\", the epidemic has accelerated digital and intelligent technologies. Since Q2, we have accelerated investment in education, automation, enterprise services and other sectors, because under the catalysis of the epidemic, it will only take 3-5 years to see returns. For projects with returns, it may be shortened to 1-2 years to see returns.</i></p><p><i>Our global layout and global vision have laid the foundation for the company's good development in 2020. Therefore, in the evaluation of invested companies at the end of the year, the results were unexpectedly good. In Q1, 86% of the companies we invested in had cash flow of more than 12 months, the proportion in Q2 even rose to 94%, and overall, our investment scale in Q2 and Q3 of 2020, both in terms of amount and number of projects, actually exceeded that of the whole year of 2019.</i></p><p><i>It can be seen that a large part of our good performance during the epidemic should be attributed to the global perspective. We not only pay attention to China's trends, but also pay attention to the global macro situation and make timely adjustments. In fact, this is also the advice I want to give to investors and entrepreneurs. As start-ups and entrepreneurs, you should have a global vision and overall awareness at the start-up stage. It is far from enough to only pay attention to micro-trends. It is necessary to always be alert to changes in global economic and political dynamics.</i></p><p><i>In my opinion, sometimes the market seems pessimistic, but in fact there is a dawn in a certain corner. As an entrepreneur, you need to let yourself out of the stage where you can see the dawn. This is the foresight that all investment companies should have.</i></p><p><i><b>1.</b></i><i><b>Several promising trends in the past</b></i></p><p><b>Technology trends in 2019 remain unchanged but will accelerate due to the pandemic</b></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e2ead4b66bde34cff32a10d1eee9e197\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"443\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">Looking back on 2020, I focused more on promoting the development of new business segments through technological reform. Overall, compared with 2019,<b>Several technological trends that I am optimistic about in 2020 have not only remained unchanged, but have also accelerated due to the epidemic. These directions include transportation, logistics, smart cities, and consumer services.</b></p><p><i><b>1. Transformation of transportation</b></i></p><p><b>With the support of new infrastructure policies, the transportation industry continues to evolve. The underlying infrastructure supports the transformation of transportation modes. Shared/autonomous driving and land-air autonomous driving technologies are further developed: such as charging, batteries and upgrades of physical infrastructure such as parking.</b></p><p><i><b>2. Logistics and distribution</b></i></p><p><b>The epidemic has greatly catalyzed the development of new automated logistics technologies such as machine automation and warehousing robots. Freight logistics, warehousing logistics, grocery and food automation have been implemented in many scenarios.</b>For example, in terms of food delivery robots, there are already some startups in the United States trying new models, and there are also some in China, but more of them have undergone greater changes in logistics and distribution. The scenarios will be different, but the basic technical modules are similar, except whether the automatic navigation is indoors or outdoors, or the speed is different. All this is due to the progress of underlying \"hard-core technologies\" such as sensors, batteries, chips and systems, controllers and cloud technology.</p><p><i><b>3. Smart City</b></i></p><p><b>New smart cities have reshaped the way of transportation and automation, changing people's daily lives, and industrial, commercial and home robots have penetrated into all aspects of people's lives.</b>I have been paying attention to this field since 2014. In 2019, we believed that its development momentum was strong, and the epidemic has accelerated the layout of smart cities in the United States, China, and Southeast Asia. By 2021, I am still very optimistic about the development in this direction.</p><p><i><b>4. Consumer server evolution</b></i></p><p>Many people may question that there are already too many games and social products in China. Is there no chance for consumer services?<b>But actually, I think there is more room for consumer services domestically.</b></p><p>Among them, educational technology is one of the next key directions in consumer services, because in addition to consuming content videos, knowledge and learning will be the consumption directions of adults and K12.<b>Seeing the shortcomings of the education 1.0 era, we began to deploy in this field 4 or 5 years ago, thinking about how to transform the education model through new technological elements such as AI, real-time technology, immersion technology, cloud, and product composition, and complete the real educational mission. There will be more evolution on the consumer side in the future, and educational technology is one of the important sections.</b></p><p>At the same time, the next generation of new entertainment technology is also another section of the consumer server that I see that may undergo changes. Real-time, immersive and cloud will shape new entertainment methods for film and television production, drones, AI editing, Virtual engines, etc., have great potential for continuous layout in real-time interaction, live game broadcast, and VR virtual world technology. It is expected that in the next five years, the development process of new entertainment technology will be faster.</p><p><i><b>5. More enterprise software and process technology</b></i></p><p>Another direction is the related fields of enterprise software process technology.<b>I simply divide the things involved in this field into two categories. From the technical level, it is cloud, SaaS and security, that is, from productization to process management for small and medium-sized enterprises; The second category is DPA (Digital Process Automation), which involves the use of new technologies such as low-code and no-code to automate and digitize management processes.</b></p><p>This is actually not a new field, but there will be some new adjustments every 3-5 years. I think that when the United States, China and Southeast Asia enter the enterprise-centered era, technical automation software, algorithms and solutions will be promoted to the top, and HR, CRM, OPR, low-code, and no-code software will become the key words for the development of enterprise software and process technology.</p><p><b>In summary, digital automation solutions enable enterprise organizations to automate one or more enterprise processes using digital technologies, and DPA can achieve this through advanced technologies such as machine learning, RPA, and AI.</b></p><p><i><b>Two,</b></i><i><b><i><b>Down</b></i></b></i><i><b>A 10-year promising development trend</b></i></p><p><b>In the next 10 years, the consumer service side will evolve, food and health technology will emerge, more enterprise software, process technology</b></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5c65a9c7b44a91d6fc9520a0aeec8a9c\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"435\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">In addition to these major technology-driven areas that I have focused on in the past,<b>In the next 10 years, I will also focus on food technology and health technology.</b></p><p><i><b>1. The emergence of food technology</b></i></p><p>At present, although food health technology is still in an early stage of development, in the next 5-10 years, I expect that the United States, China or Southeast Asia may see more new unicorns emerge.</p><p><b>The reason is very simple. Food science and technology has high technological content, and there are opportunities in all aspects from food mention to automated processing.</b>The food supply problems exposed during the epidemic when global logistics was not circulating have made many countries realize the importance of independent food supply and begin to think about whether there can be food substitutes. This may not be important in normal times, but during the epidemic, the issue of food supply will come to the forefront.</p><p><b>Specifically, from farming methods (such as hydroponics), harvesting methods (such as automation), production processes (such as central kitchen) to food substitution (such as cells, plants, etc.), the entire food health industry chain will undergo tremendous changes.</b></p><p><i><b>2. Health technology attracts attention</b></i></p><p>Health technology also contains many opportunities,<b>The reason why health technology is important is that everyone's health awareness is improving all over the world. Whether it is health monitoring, disease treatment, review, healthy food and health care, people are concerned about it. We will continue to pay attention to this field and accelerate investment.</b></p><p>Three directions can be summarized in health technology: the first direction is to use AI and Internet technology for remote consultation and communication with doctors;</p><p>The second direction is to use AI and Internet technology for condition analysis and diagnosis, and use robots for surgery;</p><p>The third direction is to use AI and algorithms to accelerate the development of new drugs, such as vaccine research and development, use algorithms for genetic testing and analysis to accelerate the development of new drugs, and use them to prevent diseases. These will become valuable development directions in the field of health science and technology.</p><p><b>Three,</b><i><b>Three major trends likely to happen in the market in 2021</b></i></p><p><b>From the business and market level, startup founders need to pay more attention to the macro market and environment in 2021, because this will affect our micro decisions at any time.</b>In my opinion, there are three major trends to focus on in 2021:</p><p>First, offline businesses, such as retail, hotels and other industries, will undergo tremendous changes. Many companies may close down or be integrated. After 2021, it is expected that more bad news will come out;</p><p>The second trend is that the Internet industry will enter a state of merger. The integration of capital in 2021 will enter the second half. In the first half, many companies have constant financing news, but in the second half, small businesses may actually encounter financing difficulties. When the business and brand cannot keep up, they will enter a vicious circle, and the relatively mature Internet industry will also undergo integration and merger;</p><p>Third, Internet giants may be spun off, because the excessive scale of enterprises will cause some problems. While risks increase, capital efficiency may not be high. The spin-off of business can not only ensure that capital can operate better, but also Improve team management efficiency.</p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> source：<a href=\"https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s/SZ3uleWIJdcSLbGCLlYy-Q\">GGV纪源资本</a></p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1a5005a4fb17f82b72b77794606c555d","relate_stocks":{},"source_url":"https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s/SZ3uleWIJdcSLbGCLlYy-Q","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1141326151","content_text":"2020年，中国甚至全球的任何一个行业、领域，包括投资市场，都被一个主旋律贯穿——新冠疫情。然而，疫情并不代表停滞、萎缩，在疫情之下，投资市场其实蕴藏着巨大的机遇，酝酿着一场新的变革。\n作为投资机构，在疫情中及时调整管理被投企业Portfolio、规避风险、发现新的投资机会，这几件事情尤为重要。我们也正是在国内疫情刚萌芽时就及时意识到形势的严重性，并做好了准备工作进入“作战”状态。\n这段时间我们更多地关注之前看好的教育科技、娱乐以及健康科技，还有“帮助企业把研发的流程搬到线上”的企业服务，而之前热门的机器人行业，虽然短期内发展受限，但从长期来说是有机会的。尤其疫情期间，全民居家办公的工作和生活方式极大地促进了在线教育和娱乐相关产业的发展，即使是企业自动化领域，虽然不确定性较大，但从长期来看发展势头也是利好的。当然了，更重要的是，企业要先活下去才能看到机会，发掘机会，这就是后话了。\n在分析被投企业Portfolio情况、开源节流的同时，我们也及时地请被投企业注意疫情最新信息，同时把消息传递给当时还未爆发的美国、意大利等合作伙伴和原材料配件供应厂商等等，让他们或抓紧时间融资，或尽快结束未完成项目，这也让被投企业们在全球大规模疫情爆发之前，迅速调整战略，做好了充足的产品、供应链等准备，更好地应对了疫情。\n另一方面，疫情爆发时，我们规避风险的另一个重要措施是转变工作重点。一般情况下，投资的工作主要涉及“募管投退”几个方面，而在Q1疫情发生时，我们将“管”提上日程，基本上没有看太多新的deal，先把手头的项目管好。到Q2时，像中国已经慢慢进入恢复状态，再把一部分精力回归到“投”。\n而从“投”的角度来说，疫情加速了数字化、智能化技术，从Q2开始我们就加速投资教育、自动化、企业服务等板块，因为在疫情的催化下，3-5年才能看到的收益的项目，可能缩短到1-2年就可以看到回报。\n我们的全球布局和全球视野为公司2020年的良好发展打下了基础，因此在年末的被投企业评估中，结果竟然意外地不错，在Q1，我们投资的企业86%有现金流超过12个月，Q2这个比例甚至升至94%，且从整体上看，我们在2020年Q2和Q3的投资规模，无论是金额还是项目数量，实际上都超过了2019年全年。\n可以看到，我们之所以在疫情期间也有良好的表现，很大一部分应归功于全球视野，我们不仅关注中国的趋势，还关注全球宏观局势，并及时做出调整。其实，这也是我想给投资者和创业者发出的忠告，作为初创公司和创业者，在创业阶段就应该具备全球化的视野和全局意识，只关注微观趋势远远不够，时刻警惕全球经济动态、政治动态的变化十分必要。\n在我看来，有时候市场看似悲观，实际上在某个角落是有曙光的，作为创业者，需要让自己出在能够看到曙光的阶段，这是所有投资企业都应具备的远见卓识。\n一、过去看好的几大趋势\n2019年的技术趋势不变但会因疫情而加速\n回顾2020年，我更多关注的是通过技术改革促进新业务板块的发展。总的来说，与2019相比，2020年我看好的几个技术趋势非但不变，还因为疫情而获得了加速发展，这几个方向包括交通、物流、智慧城市、消费服务。\n1.交通出行的变革\n在新基建政策的支持下，交通出行这一行业还在继续进化中，其中的底层基础设施支撑着交通出行方式的变革，共享/自动驾驶、陆地&空中自动驾驶技术进一步发展：如充电、电池和泊车等物理基础设施的升级。\n2.物流和配送\n疫情大幅催化了机器自动化、仓储机器人等自动化物流新技术的发展，货运物流、仓储物流、杂货与食品自动化已经在很多场景落地。比如在食品配送机器人上，美国已经有一些创业公司在尝试新的模式，国内也有一些，但更多是在物流和配送上发生了更大的变化，场景会有所不同，但基本的技术模块是类似的，只是自动导航在室内还是室外，或者速度快慢上的不同。这一切，得益于传感器、电池、芯片和系统、操控器与云技术等底层“硬核科技”的进步。\n3.智慧城市\n新型的智慧城市重塑了交通与自动化的方式，改变了人们的日常生活，工业、商业和家居机器人渗透到人们生活的方方面面。我从2014年起就开始关注这一领域，2019年我们认为其发展势头强劲，疫情更是加快了美国、中国、东南亚的智慧城市布局，到2021年，我仍然非常看好这一方向的发展。\n4.消费服务端进化\n很多人可能会质疑，国内已经有太多的游戏、社交产品，消费服务是不是已经没机会了？但实际上，我认为国内的消费服务领域还有更多空间。\n其中，教育科技是消费服务中下一个重点方向之一，因为除了消费内容视频，知识、学习将是成人和K12的消费方向。看到教育1.0时代的弊端，我们在4、5年前就已经开始在这个领域布局，思考如何通过AI、实时技术、沉浸技术、云等新科技元素，以及产品构成来改造教育模式，完成真正的教育使命。消费服务端未来会有更多进化，而教育科技就是其中一个重要版块。\n同时，下一代新娱乐科技也是我看到的消费服务端另一个可能发生变革的版块，实时、沉浸式和云将会塑造新的娱乐方式，用于影视化制作、无人机、AI编辑、虚拟引擎等，在实时互动、游戏直播、VR虚拟世界技术上持续布局大有可为。预计未来5年，新娱乐科技的发展进程会更快。\n5.更多企业软件与流程科技\n另一个方向是企业软件流程科技相关领域，我简单地将这个领域涉及的东西分为两类，从技术层面上是云、SaaS和安全，即从产品化到给中小型企业的流程管理；第二类是DPA（Digital Process Automation，数字自动化），这其中涉及利用低代码、无代码等新技术实现管理流程自动化与数据化。\n这其实并不是一个新的领域，但是每隔3-5年会出现一些新的调整，我认为当美国、中国和东南亚进入到以企业为中心的时代后，技术自动化软件、算法和方案都将被提升到首位，而HR、CRM、OPR、低代码、无代码软件将是成为企业软件与流程科技发展的关键词。\n总之，数字自动化解决方案使得企业组织能够使用数字化技术自动化一个或多个企业流程，DPA可以通过机器学习、RPA和AI等先进技术实现这一点。\n二、下个10年看好的发展趋势\n下个10年，消费服务端进化，食品健康科技涌现，更多企业软件，流程科技\n除了过去我关注的这几大技术驱动型的领域，未来10年，我还会重点关注食品科技和健康科技等方向。\n1.食品科技涌现\n目前，食品健康科技虽然还处于较早的发展阶段，但未来5-10年，我预计美国、中国或东南亚都有可能看到更多新的独角兽出现。\n理由很简单，食品科技科技含量很高，从食品提到到自动化处理等各个环节都蕴藏着机会。疫情期间全球物流不流通的情况下暴露出的食品供应问题，更是让很多国家意识到了食品供应独立的重要性，并开始思考是否可以有食品替代物。这一点在平常可能不重要，但是在疫情期间，食品的供应问题会提到首位。\n具体说来，从耕作方式（如水耕法）、收割方式（如自动化）、制作流程（如中央厨房）到食品替代（如用细胞、植物等替代），食品健康整个产业链都将发生巨大的变化。\n2.健康科技受关注\n健康科技同样蕴藏着很多机会，健康科技之所以重要，是因为在全球范围内，大家的健康意识都在提高，无论是健康监测，还是疾病治疗、复查、健康食品保健都是人们所关注的，我们也会持续关注这一领域并加速投入。\n健康科技里可以概括出三个方向：第一个方向是利用AI和互联网技术进行远程咨询，与医生进行沟通；\n第二个方向是用AI与互联网技术进行病情分析与诊断，以及用机器人进行手术等；\n第三个方向是用AI与算法加速新药物研发，如疫苗研发，用算法进行基因检测分析加速新药物研发，以及用于预防性疾病等。这些都将成为健康科技领域有价值的发展方向。\n三、2021年市场上可能会发生的三大趋势\n从业务和市场的层面， 2021年创业公司创始人们更加需要注意宏观市场和环境，因为这会随时影响我们的微观决策。在我看来，2021年需要关注三大趋势，：\n一是线下业务，如零售、酒店等行业将会发生巨大的变革，也许会有很多企业倒闭或被整合，2021年之后一段时间，预计会有更多的坏消息传出；\n第二个趋势是互联网行业会进入合并的状态，2021资本的整合将进入下半场，上半场的时候很多企业都融资消息不断，但到了下半场，小企业实际上可能会发生融资困难的情况，当业务与品牌跟不上时，就会进入恶性循环，比较成熟的互联网行业，也将发生整合与合并；\n第三，互联网巨头可能将出现分拆，因为企业规模过大会造成一些问题，风险增大的同时，资本效率可能并不高，而分拆业务，既可以保障资本可以更好地运作，还可以提升团队管理效率。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":488,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":319822626,"gmtCreate":1611569155565,"gmtModify":1704860805668,"author":{"id":"3573863078476577","authorId":"3573863078476577","name":"磐石533","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3acfdf718b918510c617d15517144155","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3573863078476577","authorIdStr":"3573863078476577"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"?","listText":"?","text":"?","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/319822626","repostId":"2105463676","repostType":2,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":642,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0}],"hots":[{"id":819104206,"gmtCreate":1630040250905,"gmtModify":1676530208256,"author":{"id":"3573863078476577","authorId":"3573863078476577","name":"磐石533","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3acfdf718b918510c617d15517144155","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3573863078476577","authorIdStr":"3573863078476577"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"150%","listText":"150%","text":"150%","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/819104206","repostId":"2162144460","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"2162144460","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1630024207,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/2162144460?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2021-08-27 08:30","market":"hk","language":"zh","title":"CITIC Securities: Focus Media's performance has recovered strongly, optimistic about the company's core ladder media traffic value","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2162144460","media":"格隆汇APP","summary":"格隆汇8月27日丨中信证券指出，分众传媒2021年上半年广告投放同比显著恢复，楼宇媒体收入持续改善，实现营收73.3亿元(YoY+58.9%)，实现归母净利润29.0亿元(YoY+252.2%)，对应归母净利率39.6%。公司广告主结构持续优化，成本持续改善，我们认为公司将保持较好的景气度，长期线下流量入口与品牌媒体价值稳固，维持“买入”评级。","content":"<p><html><body>Gelonghui August 27th<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/600030\">CITIC Securities</a>Pointed out that,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/002027\">Focus media</a>In the first half of 2021, advertising placement recovered significantly year-on-year, and building media revenue continued to improve, achieving revenue of 7.33 billion yuan (YoY+58.9%) and net profit attributable to the parent company of 2.90 billion yuan (YoY+252.2%), corresponding to a net profit margin attributable to the parent company of 39.6%. The company's advertiser structure continues to be optimized, and the cost continues to improve. We believe that the company will maintain a good prosperity, and the long-term offline traffic portal and brand media value will be stable, and the \"buy\" rating will be maintained.</p><p></body></html></p>","source":"sina_symbol","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>CITIC Securities: Focus Media's performance has recovered strongly, optimistic about the company's core ladder media traffic value</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nCITIC Securities: Focus Media's performance has recovered strongly, optimistic about the company's core ladder media traffic value\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">格隆汇APP</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-08-27 08:30</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><html><body>Gelonghui August 27th<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/600030\">CITIC Securities</a>Pointed out that,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/002027\">Focus media</a>In the first half of 2021, advertising placement recovered significantly year-on-year, and building media revenue continued to improve, achieving revenue of 7.33 billion yuan (YoY+58.9%) and net profit attributable to the parent company of 2.90 billion yuan (YoY+252.2%), corresponding to a net profit margin attributable to the parent company of 39.6%. The company's advertiser structure continues to be optimized, and the cost continues to improve. We believe that the company will maintain a good prosperity, and the long-term offline traffic portal and brand media value will be stable, and the \"buy\" rating will be maintained.</p><p></body></html></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> source：<a href=\"https://cj.sina.cn/article/normal_detail?url=https://k.sina.cn/article_5115326071_130e5ae7702001g6vy.html\">格隆汇APP</a></p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/753c9aba3202037bc97463c545d5d015","relate_stocks":{"600030":"中信证券","002027":"分众传媒","06030":"中信证券"},"source_url":"https://cj.sina.cn/article/normal_detail?url=https://k.sina.cn/article_5115326071_130e5ae7702001g6vy.html","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2162144460","content_text":"格隆汇8月27日丨中信证券指出，分众传媒2021年上半年广告投放同比显著恢复，楼宇媒体收入持续改善，实现营收73.3亿元(YoY+58.9%)，实现归母净利润29.0亿元(YoY+252.2%)，对应归母净利率39.6%。公司广告主结构持续优化，成本持续改善，我们认为公司将保持较好的景气度，长期线下流量入口与品牌媒体价值稳固，维持“买入”评级。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"600030":1,"06030":1,"002027":1}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2241,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":836965690,"gmtCreate":1629448188410,"gmtModify":1676530044511,"author":{"id":"3573863078476577","authorId":"3573863078476577","name":"磐石533","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3acfdf718b918510c617d15517144155","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3573863078476577","authorIdStr":"3573863078476577"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"?","listText":"?","text":"?","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/836965690","repostId":"1186223315","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"1186223315","kind":"news","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"为用户提供金融资讯、行情、数据，旨在帮助投资者理解世界，做投资决策。","home_visible":1,"media_name":"老虎资讯综合","id":"102","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba"},"pubTimestamp":1621928567,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1186223315?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2021-05-25 15:42","market":"hk","language":"zh","title":"A shares are fierce! Which Chinese stocks is Morgan Stanley optimistic about in the second half of the year?","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1186223315","media":"老虎资讯综合","summary":"A股今日（5月25日）迎来久违爆发！沪指大涨2.4%，报收3581.34点；深证成指涨2.34%，报收14846.45点；创业板指涨2.79%，报收3227.36点。金融、白酒、军工等板块大涨，北向资","content":"<p>A-shares ushered in a long-lost outbreak today (May 25)! The Shanghai Composite Index rose 2.4% to close at 3581.34 points; The Shenzhen Component Index rose 2.34% to close at 14846.45 points; The ChiNext Index rose 2.79% to close at 3227.36 points. Finance, liquor, military industry and other sectors rose sharply, with the net inflow of northbound funds reaching 24.774 billion yuan, a record high; The turnover of Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets exceeded 1 trillion yuan, the first time since February 24. The market is rejoicing, and there is a great potential for a bull market to come again. So, what is the judgment of major foreign banks on how the Chinese market will go next? Which stocks are you bullish on?</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/35b0e9233512f5c767aadc4b0af96f50\" tg-width=\"840\" tg-height=\"470\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MS\">Morgan Stanley</a>Analysts were so cautious about the Chinese market that they downgraded some once hot sectors and turned their attention to some individual stocks.</p><p>Multiple uncertainties such as inflation, tighter monetary policy and stricter regulation of Chinese technology companies will weigh on the overall market, Morgan Stanley Asia equity strategists wrote in their mid-year outlook for Chinese stocks released on May 17. In this environment, one of the few certainties is that pricing power will be a key driver of outperformance this year. That makes stock picking a key investment strategy, they say.</p><p>Here are five stocks that Morgan Stanley is optimistic about with double-digit stock gains in mainland China and Hong Kong markets:</p><p><b><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/600176\">Chinese boulders</a></b>-The Shanghai Stock Exchange-listed fiberglass maker is one of the top-quality companies screened by Morgan Stanley, which analysts expect to benefit from pricing power. Morgan Stanley expects its stock price to rise from 17.30 yuan per share to about 30.98 yuan, an increase of 79.1%.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c61362ed37c32b5b4b7973891f1aa85e\" tg-width=\"840\" tg-height=\"470\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><b><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/01128\">Wynn Macau</a></b>-The Hong Kong-listed company is a leader in Macau's gaming industry and one of the few companies where Morgan Stanley expects corporate pricing power to improve. Morgan Stanley expects the stock to rise 56.7% to about HK $21 per share at a price of HK $13.40 per share.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/274c3fe87bffaf7f47d24a3d43193110\" tg-width=\"840\" tg-height=\"470\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><b><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/300776\">Dier Laser</a></b>-This Wuhan-based company develops and sells laser technology to solar panel manufacturers. Morgan Stanley expects its share price to rise from 107.2 yuan per share to 174.09 yuan, an increase of 62.4%.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c580417db8c48b873bb2c248e62b0bf2\" tg-width=\"840\" tg-height=\"470\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><b><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/002352\">SF Holdings</a></b>-This Chinese express delivery giant belongs to the \"industrial\" category of enterprises that Morgan Stanley expects to benefit from rising inflation. As private spending recovers, these strategists also like consumer services and durable goods. But they downgraded the e-commerce industry to underweight. Morgan Stanley predicts that SF's share price will rise from 62.90 yuan per share to 95.73 yuan, an increase of 52.2%.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/bfff1fbd2280ee4943fc7c6960e51686\" tg-width=\"840\" tg-height=\"470\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><b><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/002027\">Focus media</a></b>-The Chinese offline advertising giant has focused its strategy on elevator advertising. Morgan Stanley's report says advertising is one of the sectors that is seeing price increases right now. Its share price is expected to rise from 9.90 yuan per share to 14.10 yuan, an increase of 42.4%.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/dd5d726c14a4503b2be6795cab6e9c36\" tg-width=\"840\" tg-height=\"470\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>A shares are fierce! Which Chinese stocks is Morgan Stanley optimistic about in the second half of the year?</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nA shares are fierce! Which Chinese stocks is Morgan Stanley optimistic about in the second half of the year?\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/102\">\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">老虎资讯综合 </p>\n<p class=\"h-time smaller\">2021-05-25 15:42</p>\n</div>\n</a>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>A-shares ushered in a long-lost outbreak today (May 25)! The Shanghai Composite Index rose 2.4% to close at 3581.34 points; The Shenzhen Component Index rose 2.34% to close at 14846.45 points; The ChiNext Index rose 2.79% to close at 3227.36 points. Finance, liquor, military industry and other sectors rose sharply, with the net inflow of northbound funds reaching 24.774 billion yuan, a record high; The turnover of Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets exceeded 1 trillion yuan, the first time since February 24. The market is rejoicing, and there is a great potential for a bull market to come again. So, what is the judgment of major foreign banks on how the Chinese market will go next? Which stocks are you bullish on?</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/35b0e9233512f5c767aadc4b0af96f50\" tg-width=\"840\" tg-height=\"470\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MS\">Morgan Stanley</a>Analysts were so cautious about the Chinese market that they downgraded some once hot sectors and turned their attention to some individual stocks.</p><p>Multiple uncertainties such as inflation, tighter monetary policy and stricter regulation of Chinese technology companies will weigh on the overall market, Morgan Stanley Asia equity strategists wrote in their mid-year outlook for Chinese stocks released on May 17. In this environment, one of the few certainties is that pricing power will be a key driver of outperformance this year. That makes stock picking a key investment strategy, they say.</p><p>Here are five stocks that Morgan Stanley is optimistic about with double-digit stock gains in mainland China and Hong Kong markets:</p><p><b><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/600176\">Chinese boulders</a></b>-The Shanghai Stock Exchange-listed fiberglass maker is one of the top-quality companies screened by Morgan Stanley, which analysts expect to benefit from pricing power. Morgan Stanley expects its stock price to rise from 17.30 yuan per share to about 30.98 yuan, an increase of 79.1%.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c61362ed37c32b5b4b7973891f1aa85e\" tg-width=\"840\" tg-height=\"470\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><b><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/01128\">Wynn Macau</a></b>-The Hong Kong-listed company is a leader in Macau's gaming industry and one of the few companies where Morgan Stanley expects corporate pricing power to improve. Morgan Stanley expects the stock to rise 56.7% to about HK $21 per share at a price of HK $13.40 per share.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/274c3fe87bffaf7f47d24a3d43193110\" tg-width=\"840\" tg-height=\"470\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><b><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/300776\">Dier Laser</a></b>-This Wuhan-based company develops and sells laser technology to solar panel manufacturers. Morgan Stanley expects its share price to rise from 107.2 yuan per share to 174.09 yuan, an increase of 62.4%.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c580417db8c48b873bb2c248e62b0bf2\" tg-width=\"840\" tg-height=\"470\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><b><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/002352\">SF Holdings</a></b>-This Chinese express delivery giant belongs to the \"industrial\" category of enterprises that Morgan Stanley expects to benefit from rising inflation. As private spending recovers, these strategists also like consumer services and durable goods. But they downgraded the e-commerce industry to underweight. Morgan Stanley predicts that SF's share price will rise from 62.90 yuan per share to 95.73 yuan, an increase of 52.2%.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/bfff1fbd2280ee4943fc7c6960e51686\" tg-width=\"840\" tg-height=\"470\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><b><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/002027\">Focus media</a></b>-The Chinese offline advertising giant has focused its strategy on elevator advertising. Morgan Stanley's report says advertising is one of the sectors that is seeing price increases right now. Its share price is expected to rise from 9.90 yuan per share to 14.10 yuan, an increase of 42.4%.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/dd5d726c14a4503b2be6795cab6e9c36\" tg-width=\"840\" tg-height=\"470\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/18f26a21557b2b9fbf841d276ecb7796","relate_stocks":{"300776":"帝尔激光","399001":"深证成指","399006":"创业板指","600176":"中国巨石","002027":"分众传媒","000001.SH":"上证指数","01128":"永利澳门","002352":"顺丰控股"},"is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1186223315","content_text":"A股今日（5月25日）迎来久违爆发！沪指大涨2.4%，报收3581.34点；深证成指涨2.34%，报收14846.45点；创业板指涨2.79%，报收3227.36点。金融、白酒、军工等板块大涨，北向资金净流入达247.74亿元，创历史新高；沪深两市成交额突破1万亿元，为2月24日以来首次。市场欢欣鼓舞，大有牛市再来之势。那么，外资大行对中国市场接下来如何走有何判断？看好哪些股票？摩根士丹利分析师对中国市场抱持谨慎态度，以至于将曾经一些炙手可热的板块降级，而把目光转向了一些个股。大摩亚洲股市策略师在5月17日发布的中国股市年中展望中写道，诸如通胀、货币政策收紧以及对中国科技公司的更严格监管等多重不确定因素将对整个市场构成压力。在这种环境下，少数确定因素之一是定价能力将成为今年表现出色的关键驱动力。他们说，这使得选股成为关键的投资策略。以下是大摩看好的在中国内地和香港市场中股票涨幅将达到两位数的五只股票：中国巨石 – 在摩根士丹利筛选的高品质公司中，这家在上交所上市的玻璃纤维制造商是其中之一，分析师预计这将从定价能力中受益。大摩预计，其股价将从每股17.30元升至约30.98元，涨幅为79.1％。永利澳门 – 这家在香港上市的公司是澳门博彩业的领导者，也是摩根士丹利预计企业定价能力将提高的少数几个公司之一。大摩预计，若以每股13.40港元的价格计算，该股将上涨56.7％，至每股约21港元。帝尔激光 — 这家位于武汉的公司开发和销售激光技术给太阳能电池板制造商。摩根士丹利预计，其股价将从每股107.2元升至174.09元，涨幅为62.4％。顺丰控股 — 这家中国快递业巨头属于摩根士丹利预期将随着通货膨胀率上升而受益的“工业”类企业。随着私人支出的恢复，这些策略师们也喜欢消费者服务和耐用品。但是他们将电子商务行业的评级降低到了减持。摩根士丹利预计，顺丰股价将从每股62.90元升至95.73元，涨幅为52.2％。分众传媒 - 这家中国线下广告巨头将其战略重点放在电梯广告上。摩根士丹利的报告称，广告业是目前价格上涨的行业之一。预计其股价将从每股9.90元升至14.10元，涨幅为42.4％。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"300776":0.9,"399001":0.9,"399006":0.9,"600176":0.9,"000001.SH":0.9,"01128":0.9,"002352":0.9,"002027":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2053,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":831072246,"gmtCreate":1629276310085,"gmtModify":1676529987998,"author":{"id":"3573863078476577","authorId":"3573863078476577","name":"磐石533","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3acfdf718b918510c617d15517144155","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3573863078476577","authorIdStr":"3573863078476577"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"12.5➗23.75×10=5.26%","listText":"12.5➗23.75×10=5.26%","text":"12.5➗23.75×10=5.26%","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/831072246","repostId":"2160858427","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"2160858427","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1629241227,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/2160858427?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2021-08-18 07:00","market":"hk","language":"zh","title":"Vanke Enterprise (02202. HK) plans to distribute 10 annual A shares for RMB 12.5. The equity registration date is August 24","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2160858427","media":"格隆汇","summary":"格隆汇8月18日丨万科企业(02202.HK)发布2020年度A股股份分红派息实施公告，拟向全体A股股东每10股派发现金红利(含税)人民币12.5元，股权登记日：2021年8月24日(周二)，除息日：2021年8月25日(周三)。","content":"<p><html><body>Gelonghui August 18th<span><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/02202\">Vanke enterprise</a>(02202. HK) announced the implementation announcement of A-share dividend distribution in 2020, and plans to distribute a cash dividend (tax included) of RMB 12.5 for every 10 shares to all A-share shareholders. Equity registration date: August 24, 2021 (Tuesday), ex-dividend date: August 25, 2021 (Wednesday).</span></p><p></body></html></p>","source":"stock_gelonghui","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Vanke Enterprise (02202. HK) plans to distribute 10 annual A shares for RMB 12.5. The equity registration date is August 24</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nVanke Enterprise (02202. HK) plans to distribute 10 annual A shares for RMB 12.5. The equity registration date is August 24\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">格隆汇</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-08-18 07:00</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><html><body>Gelonghui August 18th<span><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/02202\">Vanke enterprise</a>(02202. HK) announced the implementation announcement of A-share dividend distribution in 2020, and plans to distribute a cash dividend (tax included) of RMB 12.5 for every 10 shares to all A-share shareholders. Equity registration date: August 24, 2021 (Tuesday), ex-dividend date: August 25, 2021 (Wednesday).</span></p><p></body></html></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> source：<a href=\"https://www.gelonghui.com/news/detail.html?id=601438\">格隆汇</a></p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e0ab8365ea89ee143187cbf51d23ba8f","relate_stocks":{"02202":"万科企业","000002":"万科A"},"source_url":"https://www.gelonghui.com/news/detail.html?id=601438","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2160858427","content_text":"格隆汇8月18日丨万科企业(02202.HK)发布2020年度A股股份分红派息实施公告，拟向全体A股股东每10股派发现金红利(含税)人民币12.5元，股权登记日：2021年8月24日(周二)，除息日：2021年8月25日(周三)。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"000002":0.9,"02202":1}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2735,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":133902035,"gmtCreate":1621679112827,"gmtModify":1704361391859,"author":{"id":"3573863078476577","authorId":"3573863078476577","name":"磐石533","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3acfdf718b918510c617d15517144155","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3573863078476577","authorIdStr":"3573863078476577"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"?","listText":"?","text":"?","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/133902035","repostId":"133025626","repostType":1,"repost":{"id":133025626,"gmtCreate":1621672117863,"gmtModify":1704361338770,"author":{"id":"3514329116425907","authorId":"3514329116425907","name":"小虎AV","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/91101bd3142b32495c3131036d5f8afa","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3514329116425907","authorIdStr":"3514329116425907"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"\n \n \n  【60秒回顧“雜交水稻之父”袁隆平一生 他用一顆種子改變了世界】雜交水稻之父、中國工程院院士袁隆平因多器官功能衰竭於2021年5月22日13時07分在長沙逝世，享年91歲。袁隆平1930年9月1日生於北京，江西德安人。1953年袁隆平畢業於西南農學院，分配到湖南安江農校任教。2000年，袁隆平獲得國家最高科學技術獎。2019年9月，袁隆平被授予國家最高榮譽勳章“共和國勳章”。一分鐘回顧袁隆平生平，他用一顆種子改變了世界。[默哀] 尋夢環遊記裏有句臺詞是：死亡不是生命的終點，遺忘纔是，我會記得你。<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/000001.SH\">$上證指數(000001.SH)$</a>\n \n","listText":"【60秒回顧“雜交水稻之父”袁隆平一生 他用一顆種子改變了世界】雜交水稻之父、中國工程院院士袁隆平因多器官功能衰竭於2021年5月22日13時07分在長沙逝世，享年91歲。袁隆平1930年9月1日生於北京，江西德安人。1953年袁隆平畢業於西南農學院，分配到湖南安江農校任教。2000年，袁隆平獲得國家最高科學技術獎。2019年9月，袁隆平被授予國家最高榮譽勳章“共和國勳章”。一分鐘回顧袁隆平生平，他用一顆種子改變了世界。[默哀] 尋夢環遊記裏有句臺詞是：死亡不是生命的終點，遺忘纔是，我會記得你。<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/000001.SH\">$上證指數(000001.SH)$</a>","text":"【60秒回顧“雜交水稻之父”袁隆平一生 他用一顆種子改變了世界】雜交水稻之父、中國工程院院士袁隆平因多器官功能衰竭於2021年5月22日13時07分在長沙逝世，享年91歲。袁隆平1930年9月1日生於北京，江西德安人。1953年袁隆平畢業於西南農學院，分配到湖南安江農校任教。2000年，袁隆平獲得國家最高科學技術獎。2019年9月，袁隆平被授予國家最高榮譽勳章“共和國勳章”。一分鐘回顧袁隆平生平，他用一顆種子改變了世界。[默哀] 尋夢環遊記裏有句臺詞是：死亡不是生命的終點，遺忘纔是，我會記得你。$上證指數(000001.SH)$","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":2,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/133025626","isVote":1,"tweetType":2,"object":{"id":"a728f75d2fb24adb935affad6f21bb10","tweetId":"133025626","videoUrl":"https://1254107296.vod2.myqcloud.com/73ba5544vodgzp1254107296/828f24105285890818725834800/IQ4AxoR0h8wA.mp4","poster":"https://1254107296.vod2.myqcloud.com/27e1f7ecvodtransgzp1254107296/828f24105285890818725834800/coverBySnapshot_10_0.jpg"},"viewCount":0,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1678,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":358975975,"gmtCreate":1616658332397,"gmtModify":1704797001326,"author":{"id":"3573863078476577","authorId":"3573863078476577","name":"磐石533","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3acfdf718b918510c617d15517144155","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3573863078476577","authorIdStr":"3573863078476577"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"?","listText":"?","text":"?","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/358975975","repostId":"2122418671","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"2122418671","kind":"highlight","pubTimestamp":1616656500,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/2122418671?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2021-03-25 15:15","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"Ministry of Commerce: Pure white and flawless Xinjiang cotton cannot be discredited and tarnished by any force","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2122418671","media":"新京报","summary":"据央视新闻消息，在今天商务部举行的例行新闻发布会上，发言人高峰就H&M等国外服装品牌因新疆棉问题回应了记者的提问。高峰表示，所谓中国新疆地区存在“强迫劳动”，完全是子虚乌有，纯白无瑕的新疆棉花不容任何势力玷污抹黑。我们反对任何外部势力干涉新疆事务和中国内政，反对基于谎言和虚假信息、以所谓新疆人权问题为由对中方有关实体和个人实施制裁。","content":"<p><div>According to CCTV news, at the regular press conference held by the Ministry of Commerce today (March 25th), spokesman Gao Feng responded to reporters' questions about foreign clothing brands such as H&M due to Xinjiang cotton issues. Gao Feng said that the so-called existence of \"forced labor\" in Xinjiang, China, is completely false, and the pure white and flawless Xinjiang cotton cannot be tarnished and discredited by any force. We oppose any external forces interfering in Xinjiang affairs and China's internal affairs, and oppose the imposition of sanctions on relevant Chinese entities and individuals based on lies and false information and on the grounds of so-called human rights issues in Xinjiang. Gao Feng emphasized that for the normal business activities and construction of multinational enterprises in China...</p><p><a href=\"https://www.bjnews.com.cn/detail/161665651315171.html\">Web link</a></div></p>","source":"highlight_bjnews","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Ministry of Commerce: Pure white and flawless Xinjiang cotton cannot be discredited and tarnished by any force</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nMinistry of Commerce: Pure white and flawless Xinjiang cotton cannot be discredited and tarnished by any force\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">新京报</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-03-25 15:15</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><div>According to CCTV news, at the regular press conference held by the Ministry of Commerce today (March 25th), spokesman Gao Feng responded to reporters' questions about foreign clothing brands such as H&M due to Xinjiang cotton issues. Gao Feng said that the so-called existence of \"forced labor\" in Xinjiang, China, is completely false, and the pure white and flawless Xinjiang cotton cannot be tarnished and discredited by any force. We oppose any external forces interfering in Xinjiang affairs and China's internal affairs, and oppose the imposition of sanctions on relevant Chinese entities and individuals based on lies and false information and on the grounds of so-called human rights issues in Xinjiang. Gao Feng emphasized that for the normal business activities and construction of multinational enterprises in China...</p><p><a href=\"https://www.bjnews.com.cn/detail/161665651315171.html\">Web link</a></div></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> source：<a href=\"https://www.bjnews.com.cn/detail/161665651315171.html\">新京报</a></p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/36df0d1b19312ed3b0fd25252f9af140","relate_stocks":{"HMRZF":"Hennes & Mauritz AB"},"source_url":"https://www.bjnews.com.cn/detail/161665651315171.html","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2122418671","content_text":"据央视新闻消息，在今天（3月25日）商务部举行的例行新闻发布会上，发言人高峰就H&M等国外服装品牌因新疆棉问题回应了记者的提问。\n高峰表示，所谓中国新疆地区存在“强迫劳动”，完全是子虚乌有，纯白无瑕的新疆棉花不容任何势力玷污抹黑。我们反对任何外部势力干涉新疆事务和中国内政，反对基于谎言和虚假信息、以所谓新疆人权问题为由对中方有关实体和个人实施制裁。\n高峰强调，对于跨国企业在中国正常的经营活动和构建产业链供应链的努力，中国政府始终持欢迎和支持态度。对于个别企业基于虚假信息作出的所谓商业决策，中国消费者已经用实际行动作出了回应。希望有关企业尊重市场规律，纠正错误做法，避免商业问题政治化。同时，我们欢迎外国企业到新疆实地考察，也愿意为各国企业在新疆开展贸易投资提供积极支持。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"HMRZF":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2256,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":328469097,"gmtCreate":1615551860319,"gmtModify":1704784442047,"author":{"id":"3573863078476577","authorId":"3573863078476577","name":"磐石533","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3acfdf718b918510c617d15517144155","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3573863078476577","authorIdStr":"3573863078476577"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"1.595%","listText":"1.595%","text":"1.595%","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/328469097","repostId":"1191557527","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1191557527","kind":"news","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"市场策略研究、热点问题观察、分享最新观点：美国与海外市场、H股、及中概股市场","home_visible":1,"media_name":"Kevin策略研究","id":"1090746012","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/54c3f16355434883aa8d30b4dc5a7d90"},"pubTimestamp":1615513116,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1191557527?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2021-03-12 09:38","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"CICC Overseas: Has the short-term shock of interest rates passed?","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1191557527","media":"Kevin策略研究","summary":"过去几日，美债利率上行势头有所趋缓，10年美债利率本周初冲高后有所回落、甚至一度回至1.5%下方，特别是实际利率的升幅明显收窄。在此环境下，美股市场得到明显喘息，道琼斯和标普500指数甚至创出新高，纳","content":"<p>In the past few days, the upward momentum of US Treasury yields has slowed down. The 10-year US Treasury yields has fallen back after surging at the beginning of this week, and even once returned to below 1.5%. In particular, the increase in real interest rates has narrowed significantly. In this environment, the U.S. stock market has obviously breathed, with the Dow Jones and S&P 500 indexes even hitting new highs. Although the Nasdaq has not yet returned to its previous high, it has also continued to rebound from the bottom.</p><p>So at this point in time, has the impact of interest rates passed? What is the trend of interest rates and the market prospect in the medium and long term? We update our analysis as follows for investors' reference.</p><p><b>1. Has the impact of interest rates passed temporarily? The short term may be</b></p><p>Our March allocation monthly report published at the beginning of the month \"Periodic disturbance, or systemic inflection point?\" Mentioned that in the short term, if there is no unexpected chain reaction at the transaction level, taking into account factors such as expected accounting and emotional release,<b>We believe that interest rates may ease in stages after an abnormal surge, which will give the market some respite, especially high-valued technology stocks</b>。 At present, this trend is basically consistent with our expectations.</p><p>Looking back, first of all, the source of this round of US Treasury yields, especially the rapid rise in real interest rates, was in early February. After the Democratic Party in Congress began to promote the use of budget adjustment procedures, the market's expectation of stimulus of $1.9 trillion gradually warmed up (\"A new round of fiscal stimulus in the United States is approaching\"), because at that time, the market could basically determine that it was basically a matter of time before a new round of fiscal stimulus passed. Now, Biden has officially signed the $1.9 trillion stimulus bill into effect.<b>But for the market, this is already the fulfillment of expectations.</b></p><p><b>Secondly, there are also obvious transaction-level factors in this rise in interest rates, especially the phased rapid rise</b>For example, after breaking through the key barrier, stop loss or programmed trading is triggered, which leads to the amplification of volatility, which in turn leads to the bond being significantly oversold for a time. However, this situation has also eased significantly after the market returned to relative calm.<b>Therefore, taking these two considerations together, we expect that interest rates may consolidate and slow down at this position in the short term until the next catalyst arrives.</b></p><p>In addition, the increase in the scale of bond purchases by the Federal Reserve's short-term open market operations and the significant increase in Treasury Bond auction bidding rates may also improve market sentiment at the micro level.</p><p>However, the current interest rate level and volatility are still at a relatively high level, so the unexpected surge due to some events and key economic data is still worthy of attention. If it happens, it will inevitably cause another disturbance to the market.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5306eecb472ec3844b5f0260f6c8d753\" tg-width=\"812\" tg-height=\"499\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7044a927f4bc7712147715fcace71825\" tg-width=\"935\" tg-height=\"574\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ea32bfdd23f975dc8787c05412f1a944\" tg-width=\"1033\" tg-height=\"633\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/27d09a7c1874a714ac8ae2fff2b15988\" tg-width=\"806\" tg-height=\"498\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/96f04c2aa13d5bc545c507b363a7b7b1\" tg-width=\"879\" tg-height=\"539\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><b>2. What are the medium and long-term interest rate prospects? There is still room for upside and real interest rates are the main ones, waiting for a catalyst</b></p><p><b>Generally speaking, US Treasury yields will still have room for upside under the background that the booming supply and demand in the United States in the first half of this year are expected to drive upside risks to the economy.</b></p><p>On the supply side, the average vaccination rate of 2 million doses per day is expected to enable the United States to achieve herd immunity before summer, thereby promoting the resumption of production and the increase in service consumption. The recent sharp jump in the number of TSA airport security checks may be a direct manifestation. On the demand side, $1.9 trillion in fiscal stimulus has been released, and a direct subsidy of $1,400 per person and a weekly unemployment supplement of $300 will begin to be paid until early September (but considering the recovery of employment, this payment will be concentrated in the first half of the year). In fact, the $900 billion fiscal stimulus passed at the end of last year has caused the household savings rate to jump sharply from 13.4% in December to 20.5% in January, with immediate results.</p><p><b>So that absolute level</b>, after the interest rate level exceeded the first target point of 1.5% given in our outlook \"2021 Overseas Market Outlook: The Path of the Epidemic, Replenishment of Stocks\" in November last year,<b>Combined with the ACM term premium model provided by the New York Fed, we expect the next target point to be around 1.8%. In terms of drivers, we expect to remain dominated by real interest rates</b>, mainly considering that the real growth expectation will continue to rise, and at the same time, the inflation expectation has reacted in advance and approached the historical edge (\"The Meaning and Impact of Higher Real Interest Rates\").</p><p><b>However, in terms of rhythm, unless there are some unexpected trading-level factors, we expect that the next wave of rising interest rates may also have to wait for new catalysts.</b>For example, Biden's infrastructure plan or if the budget arrangement for the new fiscal year includes a large-scale infrastructure investment budget (expected from April to May), as well as milestone progress in vaccination to achieve herd immunity, etc.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/953a74940abdb73cad7a54eaecd25900\" tg-width=\"806\" tg-height=\"495\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/22f4913292f8d8dd12a13d006cbb6163\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"572\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/681387aaeb78e4f926fb540feabfba00\" tg-width=\"952\" tg-height=\"584\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/490695078472cbf873ac95c44e1c2d1b\" tg-width=\"937\" tg-height=\"575\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6461ed7d515436fa3d8ed148a1c254c9\" tg-width=\"806\" tg-height=\"544\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0feeeea5fcce1eb6ec0aa26406516bc3\" tg-width=\"806\" tg-height=\"477\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><b>3. Potential impact on the market and asset prices? Short-term respite, medium and long-term determines fundamentals</b></p><p>Undoubtedly, the easing of the upward trend of short-term interest rates will have a significant respite effect on the market, which is also the main reason for the recent market rebound.</p><p>However, in the long run, although the rise in short-term interest rates will inevitably lead to an increase in financing costs, especially the rapid rise will increase volatility, fundamentals are still the key to determining the medium and long-term trend of the market. Therefore,<b>We do not believe that simply higher interest rates or a steep bond curve will reverse the overall market trend in the context of continued improvement in overall fundamentals or even upside risks.</b></p><p>In the fourth quarter, U.S. stock profits have turned positive year-on-year, and the recovery speed has exceeded expectations.<b>Despite the strong supply and demand of the U.S. economy in the first half of the year, we remain confident in the recovery of U.S. earnings in the first two quarters</b>(\"Can U.S. stock earnings withstand upward disturbances in interest rates?\"). As we analyzed the experience of the U.S. stock market in early 2018 after the fluctuation caused by the sudden rise in bond interest rates, the market was able to reach a new high after the fluctuation thanks to the profit support after the tax reform, until the interest rate reached a new high in early October and the fundamentals began to gradually decline. You know, 2018 is not as good as the current one in many aspects (for example, it was in the rate hike cycle and the post-economic recovery cycle at that time, the risk premium considering the interest rate level was lower than the current one, and the financing leverage was higher than the current one, etc.) (\"Disturbance of Rising Interest Rates: Experience from 2018\").</p><p><b>It should be noted that the upward trend of real interest rates is not conducive to the performance of gold and high valuations, especially \"inflated\" valuations</b>, which is also the reason why the recent performance of the Dow Jones index in the US stock market is significantly better than that of value stocks such as the Nasdaq and banks.<b>However, once the interest rate surge eases in stages, it is difficult to maintain the relative performance of value stocks compared to growth stocks</b>(\"The Meaning and Impact of Higher Real Interest Rates\")<b>。</b></p><p>Therefore, we maintain our view in the March monthly asset allocation report: in the short term, we can appropriately reduce positions and hedge risks from the perspective of hedging, but maintain the ranking of stocks > bulk > gold > bonds.<b>Stocks are still the relative preferred choice, and commodities are partially profited by expected excessive suggestions after the surge, while bonds and gold are still unattractive. Vaccinations in Europe remain slow and new fiscal stimulus in the United States may still provide support for the US Dollar Index. Inside the stock,</b>The relative earnings and valuations of highly valued growth stocks will be under pressure against the backdrop of higher interest rates, and vice versa.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8aa4eb9a200935e26692ee45d1f137cb\" tg-width=\"806\" tg-height=\"494\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/fe09668a6799caeeb18e3fa87048bfd8\" tg-width=\"976\" tg-height=\"604\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4af76a2ab418b58372d8b5128bc32e71\" tg-width=\"806\" tg-height=\"479\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/455090cdcec012da1fae3ea332fca17f\" tg-width=\"806\" tg-height=\"495\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><b>4. Future policy expectations? OT > YCC</b></p><p>Asset price fluctuations caused by the recent rapid rise in interest rates have also significantly increased market expectations for the Federal Reserve's \"intervention\". 1.85 trillion euros, and a total of 870 billion euros have been purchased so far).</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/fad483ff57d2e5ace5ffd955f81fc109\" tg-width=\"949\" tg-height=\"582\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><b>We speculate that the Fed is still \"calm\" about the recent upward performance of long-term US Treasury yields, which may be because</b>: On the one hand, in the view of the Federal Reserve, the recent rise in interest rates is a positive expectation driven by positive growth. At the same time, Powell does not believe that the short-term rise in inflation is sustainable in the context of underemployment and still large output gaps; On the other hand, although long-term interest rates have risen, the liquidity of the financial system has remained loose. The indicators we track to measure a series of financial market liquidity environment, such as FRA-OIS, commercial paper, credit spreads, etc., have also not tightened significantly.</p><p>So what are the options if next, for example at the upcoming March FOMC meeting, if the Fed does something? We believe that in the current environment,<b>Compared with yield curve control (YCC), operation twist may be a relatively more convenient and effective way, while YCC may have a greater distortion in asset pricing and lead to a reduction in the actual purchase scale.</b></p><p>►<b>Twisting operation</b>, is the relatively most convenient and effective way under the current circumstances, and the scale of QE purchases will remain unchanged. Since the short-term interest rate anchored to the Fed's benchmark interest rate remains basically unchanged, even if the short-term interest rate is sold in the short term, the possible response will be relatively limited. In 2011, the distortion operation brought about the obvious effect of the downward trend of long-term interest rates;</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/780526ef7a48911f8da5407d76ba106c\" tg-width=\"911\" tg-height=\"559\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>►<b>Yield curve control</b>On the contrary, it may cause the actual Taper and greater distortion of asset pricing. Referring to the previous experience of the Bank of Japan in launching YCC (of course, the Bank of Japan was trying to avoid excessive negative interest rates instead of lowering interest rates), anchoring a certain price point rather than a quantitative target can have a significant effect, that is, interest rates are completely anchored. However, the actual required purchase scale continues to decline, which is equal to the effect of Taper. However, this operation of completely anchoring a certain bond yield point may \"distort\" market pricing, which may bring greater trouble from a medium-to long-term launch perspective;</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/68dcecf0510dcdddaa819757d079de53\" tg-width=\"928\" tg-height=\"567\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>►<b>Extend the expiration of the exemption requirement for the capital adequacy ratio of banking institutions to invest in Treasury Bond.</b>During the epidemic, in order to alleviate the liquidity pressure in the Treasury Bond market, the Federal Reserve allowed large financial institutions not to include Treasury Bond holdings in the calculation of capital adequacy ratios, but this exemption ended at the end of March. As of the third quarter,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BAC\">Bank of America</a>Institutions hold US $1.3 trillion in Treasury Bond, accounting for 5.5% of the total stock, an increase of US $285 billion compared with before the epidemic. If the exemption is lifted, it may be more reflected in reducing demand for Treasury Bond in the context of Bank of America's current capital adequacy ratio at a record high.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/361aac133e6d7beb0135d1ed2843a8e5\" tg-width=\"900\" tg-height=\"551\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>CICC Overseas: Has the short-term shock of interest rates passed?</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nCICC Overseas: Has the short-term shock of interest rates passed?\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/1090746012\">\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/54c3f16355434883aa8d30b4dc5a7d90);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">Kevin策略研究 </p>\n<p class=\"h-time smaller\">2021-03-12 09:38</p>\n</div>\n</a>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>In the past few days, the upward momentum of US Treasury yields has slowed down. The 10-year US Treasury yields has fallen back after surging at the beginning of this week, and even once returned to below 1.5%. In particular, the increase in real interest rates has narrowed significantly. In this environment, the U.S. stock market has obviously breathed, with the Dow Jones and S&P 500 indexes even hitting new highs. Although the Nasdaq has not yet returned to its previous high, it has also continued to rebound from the bottom.</p><p>So at this point in time, has the impact of interest rates passed? What is the trend of interest rates and the market prospect in the medium and long term? We update our analysis as follows for investors' reference.</p><p><b>1. Has the impact of interest rates passed temporarily? The short term may be</b></p><p>Our March allocation monthly report published at the beginning of the month \"Periodic disturbance, or systemic inflection point?\" Mentioned that in the short term, if there is no unexpected chain reaction at the transaction level, taking into account factors such as expected accounting and emotional release,<b>We believe that interest rates may ease in stages after an abnormal surge, which will give the market some respite, especially high-valued technology stocks</b>。 At present, this trend is basically consistent with our expectations.</p><p>Looking back, first of all, the source of this round of US Treasury yields, especially the rapid rise in real interest rates, was in early February. After the Democratic Party in Congress began to promote the use of budget adjustment procedures, the market's expectation of stimulus of $1.9 trillion gradually warmed up (\"A new round of fiscal stimulus in the United States is approaching\"), because at that time, the market could basically determine that it was basically a matter of time before a new round of fiscal stimulus passed. Now, Biden has officially signed the $1.9 trillion stimulus bill into effect.<b>But for the market, this is already the fulfillment of expectations.</b></p><p><b>Secondly, there are also obvious transaction-level factors in this rise in interest rates, especially the phased rapid rise</b>For example, after breaking through the key barrier, stop loss or programmed trading is triggered, which leads to the amplification of volatility, which in turn leads to the bond being significantly oversold for a time. However, this situation has also eased significantly after the market returned to relative calm.<b>Therefore, taking these two considerations together, we expect that interest rates may consolidate and slow down at this position in the short term until the next catalyst arrives.</b></p><p>In addition, the increase in the scale of bond purchases by the Federal Reserve's short-term open market operations and the significant increase in Treasury Bond auction bidding rates may also improve market sentiment at the micro level.</p><p>However, the current interest rate level and volatility are still at a relatively high level, so the unexpected surge due to some events and key economic data is still worthy of attention. If it happens, it will inevitably cause another disturbance to the market.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5306eecb472ec3844b5f0260f6c8d753\" tg-width=\"812\" tg-height=\"499\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7044a927f4bc7712147715fcace71825\" tg-width=\"935\" tg-height=\"574\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ea32bfdd23f975dc8787c05412f1a944\" tg-width=\"1033\" tg-height=\"633\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/27d09a7c1874a714ac8ae2fff2b15988\" tg-width=\"806\" tg-height=\"498\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/96f04c2aa13d5bc545c507b363a7b7b1\" tg-width=\"879\" tg-height=\"539\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><b>2. What are the medium and long-term interest rate prospects? There is still room for upside and real interest rates are the main ones, waiting for a catalyst</b></p><p><b>Generally speaking, US Treasury yields will still have room for upside under the background that the booming supply and demand in the United States in the first half of this year are expected to drive upside risks to the economy.</b></p><p>On the supply side, the average vaccination rate of 2 million doses per day is expected to enable the United States to achieve herd immunity before summer, thereby promoting the resumption of production and the increase in service consumption. The recent sharp jump in the number of TSA airport security checks may be a direct manifestation. On the demand side, $1.9 trillion in fiscal stimulus has been released, and a direct subsidy of $1,400 per person and a weekly unemployment supplement of $300 will begin to be paid until early September (but considering the recovery of employment, this payment will be concentrated in the first half of the year). In fact, the $900 billion fiscal stimulus passed at the end of last year has caused the household savings rate to jump sharply from 13.4% in December to 20.5% in January, with immediate results.</p><p><b>So that absolute level</b>, after the interest rate level exceeded the first target point of 1.5% given in our outlook \"2021 Overseas Market Outlook: The Path of the Epidemic, Replenishment of Stocks\" in November last year,<b>Combined with the ACM term premium model provided by the New York Fed, we expect the next target point to be around 1.8%. In terms of drivers, we expect to remain dominated by real interest rates</b>, mainly considering that the real growth expectation will continue to rise, and at the same time, the inflation expectation has reacted in advance and approached the historical edge (\"The Meaning and Impact of Higher Real Interest Rates\").</p><p><b>However, in terms of rhythm, unless there are some unexpected trading-level factors, we expect that the next wave of rising interest rates may also have to wait for new catalysts.</b>For example, Biden's infrastructure plan or if the budget arrangement for the new fiscal year includes a large-scale infrastructure investment budget (expected from April to May), as well as milestone progress in vaccination to achieve herd immunity, etc.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/953a74940abdb73cad7a54eaecd25900\" tg-width=\"806\" tg-height=\"495\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/22f4913292f8d8dd12a13d006cbb6163\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"572\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/681387aaeb78e4f926fb540feabfba00\" tg-width=\"952\" tg-height=\"584\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/490695078472cbf873ac95c44e1c2d1b\" tg-width=\"937\" tg-height=\"575\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6461ed7d515436fa3d8ed148a1c254c9\" tg-width=\"806\" tg-height=\"544\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0feeeea5fcce1eb6ec0aa26406516bc3\" tg-width=\"806\" tg-height=\"477\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><b>3. Potential impact on the market and asset prices? Short-term respite, medium and long-term determines fundamentals</b></p><p>Undoubtedly, the easing of the upward trend of short-term interest rates will have a significant respite effect on the market, which is also the main reason for the recent market rebound.</p><p>However, in the long run, although the rise in short-term interest rates will inevitably lead to an increase in financing costs, especially the rapid rise will increase volatility, fundamentals are still the key to determining the medium and long-term trend of the market. Therefore,<b>We do not believe that simply higher interest rates or a steep bond curve will reverse the overall market trend in the context of continued improvement in overall fundamentals or even upside risks.</b></p><p>In the fourth quarter, U.S. stock profits have turned positive year-on-year, and the recovery speed has exceeded expectations.<b>Despite the strong supply and demand of the U.S. economy in the first half of the year, we remain confident in the recovery of U.S. earnings in the first two quarters</b>(\"Can U.S. stock earnings withstand upward disturbances in interest rates?\"). As we analyzed the experience of the U.S. stock market in early 2018 after the fluctuation caused by the sudden rise in bond interest rates, the market was able to reach a new high after the fluctuation thanks to the profit support after the tax reform, until the interest rate reached a new high in early October and the fundamentals began to gradually decline. You know, 2018 is not as good as the current one in many aspects (for example, it was in the rate hike cycle and the post-economic recovery cycle at that time, the risk premium considering the interest rate level was lower than the current one, and the financing leverage was higher than the current one, etc.) (\"Disturbance of Rising Interest Rates: Experience from 2018\").</p><p><b>It should be noted that the upward trend of real interest rates is not conducive to the performance of gold and high valuations, especially \"inflated\" valuations</b>, which is also the reason why the recent performance of the Dow Jones index in the US stock market is significantly better than that of value stocks such as the Nasdaq and banks.<b>However, once the interest rate surge eases in stages, it is difficult to maintain the relative performance of value stocks compared to growth stocks</b>(\"The Meaning and Impact of Higher Real Interest Rates\")<b>。</b></p><p>Therefore, we maintain our view in the March monthly asset allocation report: in the short term, we can appropriately reduce positions and hedge risks from the perspective of hedging, but maintain the ranking of stocks > bulk > gold > bonds.<b>Stocks are still the relative preferred choice, and commodities are partially profited by expected excessive suggestions after the surge, while bonds and gold are still unattractive. Vaccinations in Europe remain slow and new fiscal stimulus in the United States may still provide support for the US Dollar Index. Inside the stock,</b>The relative earnings and valuations of highly valued growth stocks will be under pressure against the backdrop of higher interest rates, and vice versa.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8aa4eb9a200935e26692ee45d1f137cb\" tg-width=\"806\" tg-height=\"494\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/fe09668a6799caeeb18e3fa87048bfd8\" tg-width=\"976\" tg-height=\"604\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4af76a2ab418b58372d8b5128bc32e71\" tg-width=\"806\" tg-height=\"479\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/455090cdcec012da1fae3ea332fca17f\" tg-width=\"806\" tg-height=\"495\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><b>4. Future policy expectations? OT > YCC</b></p><p>Asset price fluctuations caused by the recent rapid rise in interest rates have also significantly increased market expectations for the Federal Reserve's \"intervention\". 1.85 trillion euros, and a total of 870 billion euros have been purchased so far).</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/fad483ff57d2e5ace5ffd955f81fc109\" tg-width=\"949\" tg-height=\"582\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><b>We speculate that the Fed is still \"calm\" about the recent upward performance of long-term US Treasury yields, which may be because</b>: On the one hand, in the view of the Federal Reserve, the recent rise in interest rates is a positive expectation driven by positive growth. At the same time, Powell does not believe that the short-term rise in inflation is sustainable in the context of underemployment and still large output gaps; On the other hand, although long-term interest rates have risen, the liquidity of the financial system has remained loose. The indicators we track to measure a series of financial market liquidity environment, such as FRA-OIS, commercial paper, credit spreads, etc., have also not tightened significantly.</p><p>So what are the options if next, for example at the upcoming March FOMC meeting, if the Fed does something? We believe that in the current environment,<b>Compared with yield curve control (YCC), operation twist may be a relatively more convenient and effective way, while YCC may have a greater distortion in asset pricing and lead to a reduction in the actual purchase scale.</b></p><p>►<b>Twisting operation</b>, is the relatively most convenient and effective way under the current circumstances, and the scale of QE purchases will remain unchanged. Since the short-term interest rate anchored to the Fed's benchmark interest rate remains basically unchanged, even if the short-term interest rate is sold in the short term, the possible response will be relatively limited. In 2011, the distortion operation brought about the obvious effect of the downward trend of long-term interest rates;</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/780526ef7a48911f8da5407d76ba106c\" tg-width=\"911\" tg-height=\"559\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>►<b>Yield curve control</b>On the contrary, it may cause the actual Taper and greater distortion of asset pricing. Referring to the previous experience of the Bank of Japan in launching YCC (of course, the Bank of Japan was trying to avoid excessive negative interest rates instead of lowering interest rates), anchoring a certain price point rather than a quantitative target can have a significant effect, that is, interest rates are completely anchored. However, the actual required purchase scale continues to decline, which is equal to the effect of Taper. However, this operation of completely anchoring a certain bond yield point may \"distort\" market pricing, which may bring greater trouble from a medium-to long-term launch perspective;</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/68dcecf0510dcdddaa819757d079de53\" tg-width=\"928\" tg-height=\"567\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>►<b>Extend the expiration of the exemption requirement for the capital adequacy ratio of banking institutions to invest in Treasury Bond.</b>During the epidemic, in order to alleviate the liquidity pressure in the Treasury Bond market, the Federal Reserve allowed large financial institutions not to include Treasury Bond holdings in the calculation of capital adequacy ratios, but this exemption ended at the end of March. As of the third quarter,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BAC\">Bank of America</a>Institutions hold US $1.3 trillion in Treasury Bond, accounting for 5.5% of the total stock, an increase of US $285 billion compared with before the epidemic. If the exemption is lifted, it may be more reflected in reducing demand for Treasury Bond in the context of Bank of America's current capital adequacy ratio at a record high.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/361aac133e6d7beb0135d1ed2843a8e5\" tg-width=\"900\" tg-height=\"551\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/fd680cd945fd32917c8ece66ec685e5f","relate_stocks":{".DJI":"道琼斯",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index"},"is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1191557527","content_text":"过去几日，美债利率上行势头有所趋缓，10年美债利率本周初冲高后有所回落、甚至一度回至1.5%下方，特别是实际利率的升幅明显收窄。在此环境下，美股市场得到明显喘息，道琼斯和标普500指数甚至创出新高，纳斯达克虽然尚未回到前期高点，但也从底部持续反弹。\n那么站在这个时间点，利率的冲击是否已经过去？中长期看利率的走势、以及市场前景如何？我们更新分析如下，供投资者参考。\n一、利率的冲击是否暂时已经过去？短期可能是\n我们在月初发表的3月配置月报《阶段性扰动，还是系统性拐点？》中提到，短期内，如果不出现交易层面意外诱发连锁反应的话，考虑到预期的计入和情绪释放等因素，我们认为利率可能在异常上冲后阶段性缓和，进而使得市场也得到一定喘息，尤其是高估值的科技股。目前看，这一走势与我们预期的情况基本一致。\n回过头来看，首先，此轮美债利率特别是实际利率快速上行的源头正是2月初，国会民主党开始推动使用预算调节程序后，市场对于1.9万亿美元刺激通过预期的逐渐升温（《美国新一轮财政刺激渐行渐近》），因为在当时市场就可以基本确定，新一轮财政刺激通过基本是时间的问题。而到了现在，1.9万亿美元刺激法案拜登已经正式签署使之生效，但对于市场而言，这已经是预期兑现了。\n其次，此次利率上行、特别是阶段性的快速上冲也存在明显的交易层面因素，如突破关键关口后，触发止损或者程序化交易进而引发波动的放大，进而导致债券一度明显超卖。但这一情形在市场恢复相对平静后，也得到明显缓和。因此，正是综合这两点考虑，我们预计利率短期可能在这一位置盘整趋缓，直到下一个催化剂到来。\n此外，美联储短期公开市场操作购债规模增加、以及国债拍卖竞拍率明显提升可能也在微观层面改善了市场情绪。\n不过，当前利率水平和波动率依然处于相对高位，因此因为一些事件和关键经济数据出发的意外上冲依然值得关注，如果出现的话，仍难免对市场再度造成扰动。\n\n二、中长期的利率前景？仍有上行空间且以实际利率为主、等待以一个催化剂\n大方向上，在预计今年上半年美国供需两旺推动经济存在上行风险的背景下，美债利率仍将有上行空间。\n供给端，平均每天200万剂的疫苗接种速度有望使得美国在夏天前实现群体免疫，进而推动生产复工和服务性消费的提升，近期TSA机场安检人数大幅跃升可能就是一个直接体现。需求端，1.9万亿美元的财政刺激已经出炉，每人1400美元的直接补贴、以及每周300美元的失业补充将开始发放直到9月初（但考虑到就业的修复，这一发放将集中在上半年）。实际上，去年底通过的9000亿美元财政刺激已经使得居民储蓄率从12月的13.4%大幅跃升至1月的20.5%，效果立竿见影。\n因此绝对水平上，在利率水平突破我们在去年11月度展望《2021年海外市场展望：疫情径曲、补库通幽》给出的1.5%的第一目标点位后，我们结合纽约联储提供的ACM期限溢价模型预计下一个目标点位在1.8%左右。从驱动因素上，我们预计仍将以实际利率为主，主要是考虑到真实的增长预期将不断走高、同时通胀预期已经提前反应并逼近历史上沿（《实际利率走高的含义与影响》）。\n不过节奏上，除非出现一些意料之外的交易层面因素，我们预期利率的下一波上行可能也要等待新的催化剂，例如拜登基建方案或者如果新一财年预算安排中包含大规模基建投资预算（预计4~5月），以及疫苗接种实现群体免疫的里程碑式进展等等。\n\n三、对市场和资产价格的潜在影响？短期有喘息、中长期决定于基本面\n毋庸置疑的是，短期利率上行的缓和对于市场将起到明显的喘息效果，这也是近期市场得以反弹的主要原因。\n但长期来看，虽然短期利率上行难免造成融资成本抬升、特别是快速上行会加大波动，但基本面仍是决定市场中长期走势的关键，因此，我们不认为在整体基本面继续向好甚至存在上行风险的背景下，单纯的利率走高或债券曲线熊陡会扭转整体市场趋势。\n四季度，美股盈利已经同比转正，而且修复速度超出预期，在上半年美国经济供需两旺的局面下，我们对于前两个季度美国盈利的修复依然保有信心（《美股盈利能否抵御利率上行扰动?》）。正如我们分析的2018年初美股市场因为债券利率骤升导致波动后的经验所示，市场在波动之后得益于税改后的盈利支撑还能够再创新高，直到10月初利率再创新高且基本面也开始逐步下行。要知道，2018年在多个方面还不如当前（例如当时处于加息周期和经济修复后周期、考虑到利率水平的风险溢价比当前更低、融资杠杆比现在还高等等）（《利率上行的扰动：来自2018年的经验》）。\n需要注意的是，实际利率的上行不利于黄金和高估值特别是“虚高”估值的表现，这也是近期美股道琼斯指数表现明显好于纳指、银行等价值股表现明显好于成长性板块的原因。不过一旦在利率上冲阶段性缓和时，价值股相比成长股的相对表现也很难一直维系（《实际利率走高的含义与影响》）。\n因此，我们维持在3月资产配置月报中的观点：短期从避险角度可以适当降低仓位并对冲风险，但维持股>大宗>黄金>债券排序，股票仍是相对首选，大宗商品大涨后计入预期过多建议部分获利，而债券和黄金仍不具备吸引力。欧洲疫苗接种依然缓慢以及美国新增财政刺激可能仍为美元指数提供支撑。股票内部，高估值成长股的相对收益和估值在利率走高背景下会有压力，反之亦然。\n\n四、未来的政策期待？OT>YCC\n近期利率快速上行导致的资产价格波动也使得市场对于美联储出手“干预”的期待明显升温，毕竟欧央行都已经在未来一个季度决定加大其PEPP（大流行病资产购买计划的购买速度，总规模1.85万亿欧元，目前已经累计购买8700亿欧元）。\n\n我们猜测，美联储目前依然对近期长端美债利率上行表现“淡定”可能是因为：一方面，在美联储看来近期利率上行是一个对增长向好驱动的良性预期推动、同时Powell不认为在未达到充分就业和产出缺口也依然很大的背景下通胀短期走高具有持续性；另一方面，虽然长端利率走高，但金融体系流动性都维持宽松状态，我们追踪的衡量一系列金融市场流动性环境的指标，如FRA-OIS、商业票据、信用利差等等，也都没有明显收紧。\n那么，如果接下来，例如在即将召开的3月FOMC会议上，如果美联储采取措施的话，有哪些选项呢？我们认为在当前环境下，相比收益率曲线控制（yield curve control，YCC），扭曲操作（operation twist）可能是相对更为便捷且有效的方式，而YCC对资产定价的扭曲可能更大且会导致实际购买规模的缩减。\n►扭曲操作，在目前情况下是相对最为便捷且有效的一种方式，而且QE购买规模将维持不变。由于较为短端利率锚定美联储基准利率保持基本不变，因此即便短期卖出短端，可能造成的响应相对有限。2011年采取扭曲操作即带来的长端利率下行的明显效果；\n\n►收益率曲线控制，反而可能造成实际的Taper和对资产定价更大的扭曲。参照日本央行此前推出YCC的经验（当然日本央行当时是为了避免过深的负利率而非压低利率），锚定某个价格点位而非数量目标可以起到明显的效果，即利率被完全锚定但实际所需的购买规模不断下降，等于Taper的效果。不过，这种完全锚定某个债券收益率点位的操作可能会“扭曲”市场定价，从中长期的推出角度可能会带来更大的麻烦；\n\n►延长对银行机构投资国债资本充足率豁免要求的到期。疫情期间，美联储为缓解国债市场流动性压力，允许大型金融机构可以不将持有国债纳入资本充足率计算中，但这一豁免3月底截止。截止三季度，美国银行机构持有国债1.3万亿美元，占到总存量规模的5.5%，相比疫情前新增2850亿美元。如果豁免取消的话，在美国银行目前资本充足率处于历史新高的背景下，可能更多体现为降低对国债的需求。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{".DJI":0.9,".IXIC":0.9,".SPX":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1659,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":320105796,"gmtCreate":1615033094615,"gmtModify":1704778303083,"author":{"id":"3573863078476577","authorId":"3573863078476577","name":"磐石533","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3acfdf718b918510c617d15517144155","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3573863078476577","authorIdStr":"3573863078476577"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"?","listText":"?","text":"?","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/320105796","repostId":"2117763076","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1933,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":381692357,"gmtCreate":1612959900379,"gmtModify":1704876534769,"author":{"id":"3573863078476577","authorId":"3573863078476577","name":"磐石533","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3acfdf718b918510c617d15517144155","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3573863078476577","authorIdStr":"3573863078476577"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"?","listText":"?","text":"?","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/381692357","repostId":"381881734","repostType":1,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2046,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":389168756,"gmtCreate":1612738574575,"gmtModify":1704873663174,"author":{"id":"3573863078476577","authorId":"3573863078476577","name":"磐石533","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3acfdf718b918510c617d15517144155","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3573863078476577","authorIdStr":"3573863078476577"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"?","listText":"?","text":"?","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/389168756","repostId":"2109715977","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"2109715977","kind":"highlight","pubTimestamp":1612683249,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/2109715977?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2021-02-07 15:34","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"Why U.S. interest rates are only likely to rise slightly in 2021","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2109715977","media":"金十数据","summary":"分析指出，持续的通胀压力最早也要到2022年才会出现。","content":"<p>Russel Investments believes that the Federal Reserve will continue to intervene in the Treasury Bond market until the U.S. economy fully recovers.</p><p>Earlier, the Federal Reserve announced that it would keep its overnight rate near zero. That's in line with expectations as millions of Americans remain unemployed and inflation remains below target, which the Fed wants to get to before raising interest rates. Russel Investments expects the Federal Reserve to withdraw its support for the economy before the beginning of 2024.</p><p>The level of long-term interest rates depends not only on the Fed's expected moves this year, but also on expectations in the coming years. Russel Investments believes that the yield on the 10-year U.S. Treasury Bond will remain between 1.1% and 1.6% by the end of 2021, i.e. the yield is only up slightly from current levels.</p><p>Russel Investments believes that the key to the 10-year U.S. Treasury Bond yield is when inflationary pressures will pose a threat to the benchmark interest rate and how long the Fed's $120 billion monthly bond purchase program will last.</p><p><b>01. The Fed wants higher inflation</b></p><p>Russel Investments said that for the stock market, the economic recovery phase tends to be a strong phase in the stock market cycle, because at this time the economy will grow significantly above average. But for the bond market, what is more important is the level of economic activity rather than the level of economic growth, because the level of economic activity is the driving force for inflation, and investors price bonds depend on inflation.</p><p>Russel Investments said that many people misunderstand the causes of inflation. Some may have heard of hyperinflation in Zimbabwe and therefore assume that printing money leads to runaway inflation and currency devaluation. But actually,<b><u>The process of inflation is a bit complicated</u></b>。</p><p>Simply put, inflation can be understood as a balance<b>Supply and demand</b>The way. For example, from the micro level, if a parent wants to buy an electronic product for his child, he needs to pay more than the suggested retail price of this electronic product, because the market demand is too large relative to the number of electronic products available, so the price will be pushed up.</p><p>At the macro level, economists use aggregate demand and aggregate supply to map the level of inflation. Aggregate demand is a function of consumer, business, and government spending (i.e. GDP); Aggregate supply is a function of the quantity and quality of people and machines that meet this demand. The chart below depicts the situation of the output gap, an aggregate metric that compares current demand with potential supply.</p><p><img src=\"https://cdn-news.jin10.com/fd1d56ed-fb0f-4278-a554-e424fd1a284a.png\" tg-width=\"875\" tg-height=\"493\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>When this line is above the level of zero, it indicates that inflationary pressures are building, Russel Investments said. When this line falls below the level of zero, it indicates that deflationary pressures are dominant. So the reason inflation slowed in early 2020 or early 2009 (when the Federal Reserve was printing money like crazy and the U.S. government was running massive fiscal stimulus) is simple, that is<b>Insufficient aggregate demand.</b></p><p><b>02. Inflation is unlikely to continue to rise until next year</b></p><p>Russel Investments said that despite large-scale fiscal stimulus measures and the gradual recovery of the economy, aggregate demand is still weak, especially for the service industry.</p><p>Russel Investments expects that strong economic growth in 2021 will help the United States get out of its current predicament faster than it did during the 2008 financial crisis.</p><p>Separately, it's worth noting that inflation is likely to soar in the short term later this year as more pandemic-related restrictions are lifted and pent-up consumer demand is being released.</p><p>Powell said the same thing at last week's Fed policy meeting, emphasizing that<b><u>The rapid surge in inflation will be short-lived, not lasting.</u></b></p><p>Russel Investments agrees and believes that<b><u>Persistent inflationary pressures won't occur until 2022 at the earliest</u></b>。 The reason Russel Investments came to this view is that their model shows that the U.S. core consumer price index inflation measure (PCE), which is the measure of inflation commonly used by the Federal Reserve, is expected to hit 1.8% by the end of the year.</p><p><img src=\"https://cdn-news.jin10.com/35bc3b74-794e-4042-a092-844302e2299f.png\" tg-width=\"1064\" tg-height=\"645\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>As can be seen from the above chart, the level of 1.8% is lower than the Fed's inflation target. For much of the past decade, inflation has been below the Fed's target level. But the Fed is trying to keep inflation above target, so that means the Fed's easing policy will last longer.</p>","source":"xnew_highlight","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Why U.S. interest rates are only likely to rise slightly in 2021</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nWhy U.S. interest rates are only likely to rise slightly in 2021\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">金十数据</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-02-07 15:34</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>Russel Investments believes that the Federal Reserve will continue to intervene in the Treasury Bond market until the U.S. economy fully recovers.</p><p>Earlier, the Federal Reserve announced that it would keep its overnight rate near zero. That's in line with expectations as millions of Americans remain unemployed and inflation remains below target, which the Fed wants to get to before raising interest rates. Russel Investments expects the Federal Reserve to withdraw its support for the economy before the beginning of 2024.</p><p>The level of long-term interest rates depends not only on the Fed's expected moves this year, but also on expectations in the coming years. Russel Investments believes that the yield on the 10-year U.S. Treasury Bond will remain between 1.1% and 1.6% by the end of 2021, i.e. the yield is only up slightly from current levels.</p><p>Russel Investments believes that the key to the 10-year U.S. Treasury Bond yield is when inflationary pressures will pose a threat to the benchmark interest rate and how long the Fed's $120 billion monthly bond purchase program will last.</p><p><b>01. The Fed wants higher inflation</b></p><p>Russel Investments said that for the stock market, the economic recovery phase tends to be a strong phase in the stock market cycle, because at this time the economy will grow significantly above average. But for the bond market, what is more important is the level of economic activity rather than the level of economic growth, because the level of economic activity is the driving force for inflation, and investors price bonds depend on inflation.</p><p>Russel Investments said that many people misunderstand the causes of inflation. Some may have heard of hyperinflation in Zimbabwe and therefore assume that printing money leads to runaway inflation and currency devaluation. But actually,<b><u>The process of inflation is a bit complicated</u></b>。</p><p>Simply put, inflation can be understood as a balance<b>Supply and demand</b>The way. For example, from the micro level, if a parent wants to buy an electronic product for his child, he needs to pay more than the suggested retail price of this electronic product, because the market demand is too large relative to the number of electronic products available, so the price will be pushed up.</p><p>At the macro level, economists use aggregate demand and aggregate supply to map the level of inflation. Aggregate demand is a function of consumer, business, and government spending (i.e. GDP); Aggregate supply is a function of the quantity and quality of people and machines that meet this demand. The chart below depicts the situation of the output gap, an aggregate metric that compares current demand with potential supply.</p><p><img src=\"https://cdn-news.jin10.com/fd1d56ed-fb0f-4278-a554-e424fd1a284a.png\" tg-width=\"875\" tg-height=\"493\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>When this line is above the level of zero, it indicates that inflationary pressures are building, Russel Investments said. When this line falls below the level of zero, it indicates that deflationary pressures are dominant. So the reason inflation slowed in early 2020 or early 2009 (when the Federal Reserve was printing money like crazy and the U.S. government was running massive fiscal stimulus) is simple, that is<b>Insufficient aggregate demand.</b></p><p><b>02. Inflation is unlikely to continue to rise until next year</b></p><p>Russel Investments said that despite large-scale fiscal stimulus measures and the gradual recovery of the economy, aggregate demand is still weak, especially for the service industry.</p><p>Russel Investments expects that strong economic growth in 2021 will help the United States get out of its current predicament faster than it did during the 2008 financial crisis.</p><p>Separately, it's worth noting that inflation is likely to soar in the short term later this year as more pandemic-related restrictions are lifted and pent-up consumer demand is being released.</p><p>Powell said the same thing at last week's Fed policy meeting, emphasizing that<b><u>The rapid surge in inflation will be short-lived, not lasting.</u></b></p><p>Russel Investments agrees and believes that<b><u>Persistent inflationary pressures won't occur until 2022 at the earliest</u></b>。 The reason Russel Investments came to this view is that their model shows that the U.S. core consumer price index inflation measure (PCE), which is the measure of inflation commonly used by the Federal Reserve, is expected to hit 1.8% by the end of the year.</p><p><img src=\"https://cdn-news.jin10.com/35bc3b74-794e-4042-a092-844302e2299f.png\" tg-width=\"1064\" tg-height=\"645\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>As can be seen from the above chart, the level of 1.8% is lower than the Fed's inflation target. For much of the past decade, inflation has been below the Fed's target level. But the Fed is trying to keep inflation above target, so that means the Fed's easing policy will last longer.</p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> source：<a href=\"https://xnews.jin10.com/webapp/details.html?id=70359&type=news\">金十数据</a></p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://cdn-news.jin10.com/a36f8655-538e-47bb-a0fe-411946e25222.png/lite","relate_stocks":{},"source_url":"https://xnews.jin10.com/webapp/details.html?id=70359&type=news","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2109715977","content_text":"Russel Investments认为，在美国经济完全复苏之前，美联储还将继续干预国债市场。此前，美联储宣布将其隔夜利率保持在零附近的水平。这符合预期，因为数以百万计的美国人仍然没有工作，通货膨胀率仍然低于目标，而美联储希望在上调利率前使通胀达到预期目标。Russel Investments预计在2024年年初之前，美联储可能撤回对经济的支撑。长期利率的水平不仅取决于美联储今年的预期举措，还取决于未来几年的预期。Russel Investments认为，到2021年底，10年期美国国债的收益率将维持在1.1%至1.6%之间，即收益率仅较当前水平小幅上升。Russel Investments认为，对于10年期美国国债收益率，关键在于通胀压力什么时候将对基准利率构成威胁，以及美联储每月1200亿美元的购债计划还将持续多久。01、美联储希望通胀水平更高Russel Investments表示，对于股市来说，经济复苏阶段往往是股市周期中强劲的阶段，因为此时经济的增长将显著高于平均水平。但对债券市场而言，更重要的是经济活动水平而不是经济增长水平，因为经济活动水平是驱动通胀的动力，而投资者为债券定价又取决于通胀。Russel Investments称，有很多人误解了通胀的原因。有些人可能听说过津巴布韦的恶性通货膨胀，因此认为印钞会导致失控的通货膨胀和货币贬值。但实际上，通胀的发生过程有点复杂。简单来说，可以把通货膨胀理解为一种平衡供给和需求的方式。比如从微观层面来说，如果家长想给孩子买一台电子产品，那么他需要付出高于这台电子产品建议零售价的钱，因为相对于可供应的电子产品数量来说，市场的需求太大了，所以价格会被推高。在宏观层面上，经济学家使用总需求和总供给来描绘通货膨胀水平。总需求是消费者、企业和政府支出（即GDP）的函数；总供给是满足这种需求的人和机器的数量和质量的函数。下图描绘了产出缺口的情况，即一种比较当前需求与潜在供应的汇总指标。Russel Investments说，当这条线高于零的水平时，表明通胀压力正在累积。当这条线低于零的水平时，表明通缩压力占据主导地位。因此，通胀率在2020年初或2009年初（当时美联储在疯狂印钞，而美国政府实行大规模财政刺激措施）放缓的原因很简单，那就是总需求不足。02、通胀在明年之前不太可能持续上升Russel Investments表示，如今虽然有大规模的财政刺激措施，经济也逐渐复苏，但总需求仍然疲弱，特别是对于服务业的需求。Russel Investments预计，2021年经济的强劲增长将有助于美国比2008年金融危机时更快地摆脱当前的困境。另外，值得注意的是，随着更多与疫情相关的限制措施的取消，被压抑的消费需求正在释放，今年晚些时候通胀可能会在短期内飙升。鲍威尔在上周的美联储政策会议上也说了同样的话，他强调通胀的迅速飙升都将是短暂的，而不是持久的。Russel Investments对此表示认同，并认为持续的通胀压力最早也要到2022年才会出现。Russel Investments得出这一观点的原因是，他们的模型显示美国核心个人消费价格指数通胀指标（PCE）预期到今年年底将触及1.8%，该指标是美联储通常使用的衡量通胀的指标。而从上图可以看出，1.8%的水平低于美联储的通胀目标。在过去十年的大部分时间里，通胀率都低于美联储的目标水平。但美联储正试图使通胀率高于目标水平，因此这意味着美联储的宽松政策将持续更长的时间。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"TNmain":0.9,"ZTmain":0.9,"UBmain":0.9,"ZBmain":0.9,"ZFmain":0.9,"ZNmain":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1478,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":380744368,"gmtCreate":1612603895154,"gmtModify":1704873182668,"author":{"id":"3573863078476577","authorId":"3573863078476577","name":"磐石533","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3acfdf718b918510c617d15517144155","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3573863078476577","authorIdStr":"3573863078476577"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"?","listText":"?","text":"?","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/380744368","repostId":"380736127","repostType":1,"repost":{"id":380736127,"gmtCreate":1612587110769,"gmtModify":1704873097008,"author":{"id":"3488157435400312","authorId":"3488157435400312","name":"GPLP犀牛财经","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/14abc57b2bc335b01ce8f7df19813f91","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3488157435400312","authorIdStr":"3488157435400312"},"themes":[],"title":"年輕人正如何向“第四消費時代”過渡","htmlText":"作者：李東耳來源：GPLP犀牛財經（ID:gplpcn）在日本作家三浦展的《第四消費時代》一書當中，他詳細描述了第四消費時代的特徵：在第四消費時代，人們普遍重視“共享”，從崇尚時尚、奢侈品，經歷注重質量和舒適度，進而過渡到迴歸內心的滿足感，從崇尚歐美、嚮往都市到地方意識。在全球範圍內，不僅在日本，包括美國在內都同樣經歷了這個過程，如今，種種跡象表明，中國也正在向“第四消費時代”過渡。二手閒置平臺閒魚發佈了一組新現象，提到了爲AirPod找另一半、小樣女孩、特斯拉冷靜期、閒魚式脫粉、代過春節……這些新現象都證明，年輕消費者開始不斷重視“共享”，引領新閒置消費，並且大家對於消費迴歸到了質量及舒適度爲主，同時兼顧情感及內心的滿足。中國向第四消費時代過渡現實表明，中國的第四消費時代正在由Z世代引領。對於Z世代來講，在閒魚消費不僅成爲年輕人的潮流，更是他們消費習慣最真實的註解。據閒魚相關報告顯示，在閒魚平臺上，目前有超過60%的用戶爲90後，其中35%爲95後（Z世代）。與日本向第四消費時代過渡時相似的是，當下，我國的消費市場也在發生着改變，三四線城市的消費還在持續升級，一二線城市的消費開始逐漸理性。回顧日本向第四消費時代過渡時，年輕人對消費市場格局的變化起着至關重要的影響。一個重要的變化就是年輕人們不再盲目追求高檔消費品，而是轉向一些中低端品牌。90年代末，日本掀起了一次LV熱潮，一度熱到了沒有LV都不好意思出門的情況。但到了2010年前後，LV卻突然失寵，甚至被打上了“鄉下人”、“暴發戶”的標籤。LV失寵的同時，從羞於穿出門到新款被搶購一空，優衣庫卻在日本崛起。有趣的是，LV在日本的遭遇正在國內重演。國內市場上的高檔奢侈品雖然銷量還在提升，但增速卻被不少中低端品牌吊打，不少曾經被嫌棄的國貨品牌正在逐漸被年輕消費者們認可，在中國的消費品行業掀起了一輪國貨潮。比如，成立於1927年的","listText":"作者：李東耳來源：GPLP犀牛財經（ID:gplpcn）在日本作家三浦展的《第四消費時代》一書當中，他詳細描述了第四消費時代的特徵：在第四消費時代，人們普遍重視“共享”，從崇尚時尚、奢侈品，經歷注重質量和舒適度，進而過渡到迴歸內心的滿足感，從崇尚歐美、嚮往都市到地方意識。在全球範圍內，不僅在日本，包括美國在內都同樣經歷了這個過程，如今，種種跡象表明，中國也正在向“第四消費時代”過渡。二手閒置平臺閒魚發佈了一組新現象，提到了爲AirPod找另一半、小樣女孩、特斯拉冷靜期、閒魚式脫粉、代過春節……這些新現象都證明，年輕消費者開始不斷重視“共享”，引領新閒置消費，並且大家對於消費迴歸到了質量及舒適度爲主，同時兼顧情感及內心的滿足。中國向第四消費時代過渡現實表明，中國的第四消費時代正在由Z世代引領。對於Z世代來講，在閒魚消費不僅成爲年輕人的潮流，更是他們消費習慣最真實的註解。據閒魚相關報告顯示，在閒魚平臺上，目前有超過60%的用戶爲90後，其中35%爲95後（Z世代）。與日本向第四消費時代過渡時相似的是，當下，我國的消費市場也在發生着改變，三四線城市的消費還在持續升級，一二線城市的消費開始逐漸理性。回顧日本向第四消費時代過渡時，年輕人對消費市場格局的變化起着至關重要的影響。一個重要的變化就是年輕人們不再盲目追求高檔消費品，而是轉向一些中低端品牌。90年代末，日本掀起了一次LV熱潮，一度熱到了沒有LV都不好意思出門的情況。但到了2010年前後，LV卻突然失寵，甚至被打上了“鄉下人”、“暴發戶”的標籤。LV失寵的同時，從羞於穿出門到新款被搶購一空，優衣庫卻在日本崛起。有趣的是，LV在日本的遭遇正在國內重演。國內市場上的高檔奢侈品雖然銷量還在提升，但增速卻被不少中低端品牌吊打，不少曾經被嫌棄的國貨品牌正在逐漸被年輕消費者們認可，在中國的消費品行業掀起了一輪國貨潮。比如，成立於1927年的","text":"作者：李東耳來源：GPLP犀牛財經（ID:gplpcn）在日本作家三浦展的《第四消費時代》一書當中，他詳細描述了第四消費時代的特徵：在第四消費時代，人們普遍重視“共享”，從崇尚時尚、奢侈品，經歷注重質量和舒適度，進而過渡到迴歸內心的滿足感，從崇尚歐美、嚮往都市到地方意識。在全球範圍內，不僅在日本，包括美國在內都同樣經歷了這個過程，如今，種種跡象表明，中國也正在向“第四消費時代”過渡。二手閒置平臺閒魚發佈了一組新現象，提到了爲AirPod找另一半、小樣女孩、特斯拉冷靜期、閒魚式脫粉、代過春節……這些新現象都證明，年輕消費者開始不斷重視“共享”，引領新閒置消費，並且大家對於消費迴歸到了質量及舒適度爲主，同時兼顧情感及內心的滿足。中國向第四消費時代過渡現實表明，中國的第四消費時代正在由Z世代引領。對於Z世代來講，在閒魚消費不僅成爲年輕人的潮流，更是他們消費習慣最真實的註解。據閒魚相關報告顯示，在閒魚平臺上，目前有超過60%的用戶爲90後，其中35%爲95後（Z世代）。與日本向第四消費時代過渡時相似的是，當下，我國的消費市場也在發生着改變，三四線城市的消費還在持續升級，一二線城市的消費開始逐漸理性。回顧日本向第四消費時代過渡時，年輕人對消費市場格局的變化起着至關重要的影響。一個重要的變化就是年輕人們不再盲目追求高檔消費品，而是轉向一些中低端品牌。90年代末，日本掀起了一次LV熱潮，一度熱到了沒有LV都不好意思出門的情況。但到了2010年前後，LV卻突然失寵，甚至被打上了“鄉下人”、“暴發戶”的標籤。LV失寵的同時，從羞於穿出門到新款被搶購一空，優衣庫卻在日本崛起。有趣的是，LV在日本的遭遇正在國內重演。國內市場上的高檔奢侈品雖然銷量還在提升，但增速卻被不少中低端品牌吊打，不少曾經被嫌棄的國貨品牌正在逐漸被年輕消費者們認可，在中國的消費品行業掀起了一輪國貨潮。比如，成立於1927年的","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3178ef036459abe295cb647611545ecb","width":"688","height":"491"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":2,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/380736127","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":0,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":2,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1985,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":314270851,"gmtCreate":1612359560373,"gmtModify":1704870144383,"author":{"id":"3573863078476577","authorId":"3573863078476577","name":"磐石533","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3acfdf718b918510c617d15517144155","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3573863078476577","authorIdStr":"3573863078476577"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"???????????","listText":"???????????","text":"???????????","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/314270851","repostId":"2108221700","repostType":2,"isVote":1,"tweetType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編輯：小市妹問：姥爺經常說好公司都顯而易見，盡人皆知。但是有些全國乃至全球性的細分行業龍頭公司，其實知名度並不高，堪稱中國經濟和A股中的隱形冠軍。在姥爺看來，有哪些公司可以稱爲隱形冠軍，值得投資者重點關注？財姥爺：顯而易見的好公司，主要是大的行業賽道里直接面向消費者的公司。比如社交領域的騰訊，電商領域的阿里、京東、拼多多、美團，家電領域的格力、美的，食品領域的海天味業和農夫山泉等等。這些萬億市場裏的龍頭企業，其產品在日常生活中被消費者廣泛使用，因此具備家喻戶曉的知名度，市值基本也是幾千億甚至幾萬億級別。你所謂的隱形冠軍，主要是在細分行業賽道爲企業客戶服務的公司。這些行業主要包括化工、工程機械、汽車零部件、建築建材、半導體以及新能源等，基本都位於上中游產業鏈。這些公司雖然在行業內有極高的地位，業績和股價表現也很好，但是其產品消費者一般不太熟悉，社會知名度也不會太高，屬於悶聲發財的類型。A股中隱性冠軍其實不少，今天先簡單介紹幾家：北新建材，建材石膏板龍頭，石膏板全球產能市佔率達到60%，過去三年平均ROE25%；東方雨虹，建材防水材料龍頭，國內市佔率超過13%，遠高於第二名，最近三年平均ROE超過20%；萬華化學，化工聚氨酯龍頭，主營產品爲MDI和TDI和聚氨酯，其MDI產能全球第一，聚氨酯銷量佔全球23%，過去三年平均ROE高達38%；浙江龍盛，化工染料龍頭，主營產品爲分散染料和活性染料，染料產量佔全國市場25%，分散染料產能全球第一，過去三年平均ROE17%；浙江鼎立，工程機械高空作業平臺龍頭，國內品牌no1，全球市佔率2.2%，距全球龍頭還有較遠距離，有巨大份額提升空間，過去三年平均ROE18%；恆立液壓，工程機械高壓油缸龍頭，其中挖掘機油缸國內市佔率超過50%，小挖泵閥市佔率近30%，過去三年平均ROE18%；福耀玻璃，汽車玻璃龍頭，全球市場佔有率27%，","listText":"作者：財姥爺 編輯：小市妹問：姥爺經常說好公司都顯而易見，盡人皆知。但是有些全國乃至全球性的細分行業龍頭公司，其實知名度並不高，堪稱中國經濟和A股中的隱形冠軍。在姥爺看來，有哪些公司可以稱爲隱形冠軍，值得投資者重點關注？財姥爺：顯而易見的好公司，主要是大的行業賽道里直接面向消費者的公司。比如社交領域的騰訊，電商領域的阿里、京東、拼多多、美團，家電領域的格力、美的，食品領域的海天味業和農夫山泉等等。這些萬億市場裏的龍頭企業，其產品在日常生活中被消費者廣泛使用，因此具備家喻戶曉的知名度，市值基本也是幾千億甚至幾萬億級別。你所謂的隱形冠軍，主要是在細分行業賽道爲企業客戶服務的公司。這些行業主要包括化工、工程機械、汽車零部件、建築建材、半導體以及新能源等，基本都位於上中游產業鏈。這些公司雖然在行業內有極高的地位，業績和股價表現也很好，但是其產品消費者一般不太熟悉，社會知名度也不會太高，屬於悶聲發財的類型。A股中隱性冠軍其實不少，今天先簡單介紹幾家：北新建材，建材石膏板龍頭，石膏板全球產能市佔率達到60%，過去三年平均ROE25%；東方雨虹，建材防水材料龍頭，國內市佔率超過13%，遠高於第二名，最近三年平均ROE超過20%；萬華化學，化工聚氨酯龍頭，主營產品爲MDI和TDI和聚氨酯，其MDI產能全球第一，聚氨酯銷量佔全球23%，過去三年平均ROE高達38%；浙江龍盛，化工染料龍頭，主營產品爲分散染料和活性染料，染料產量佔全國市場25%，分散染料產能全球第一，過去三年平均ROE17%；浙江鼎立，工程機械高空作業平臺龍頭，國內品牌no1，全球市佔率2.2%，距全球龍頭還有較遠距離，有巨大份額提升空間，過去三年平均ROE18%；恆立液壓，工程機械高壓油缸龍頭，其中挖掘機油缸國內市佔率超過50%，小挖泵閥市佔率近30%，過去三年平均ROE18%；福耀玻璃，汽車玻璃龍頭，全球市場佔有率27%，","text":"作者：財姥爺 編輯：小市妹問：姥爺經常說好公司都顯而易見，盡人皆知。但是有些全國乃至全球性的細分行業龍頭公司，其實知名度並不高，堪稱中國經濟和A股中的隱形冠軍。在姥爺看來，有哪些公司可以稱爲隱形冠軍，值得投資者重點關注？財姥爺：顯而易見的好公司，主要是大的行業賽道里直接面向消費者的公司。比如社交領域的騰訊，電商領域的阿里、京東、拼多多、美團，家電領域的格力、美的，食品領域的海天味業和農夫山泉等等。這些萬億市場裏的龍頭企業，其產品在日常生活中被消費者廣泛使用，因此具備家喻戶曉的知名度，市值基本也是幾千億甚至幾萬億級別。你所謂的隱形冠軍，主要是在細分行業賽道爲企業客戶服務的公司。這些行業主要包括化工、工程機械、汽車零部件、建築建材、半導體以及新能源等，基本都位於上中游產業鏈。這些公司雖然在行業內有極高的地位，業績和股價表現也很好，但是其產品消費者一般不太熟悉，社會知名度也不會太高，屬於悶聲發財的類型。A股中隱性冠軍其實不少，今天先簡單介紹幾家：北新建材，建材石膏板龍頭，石膏板全球產能市佔率達到60%，過去三年平均ROE25%；東方雨虹，建材防水材料龍頭，國內市佔率超過13%，遠高於第二名，最近三年平均ROE超過20%；萬華化學，化工聚氨酯龍頭，主營產品爲MDI和TDI和聚氨酯，其MDI產能全球第一，聚氨酯銷量佔全球23%，過去三年平均ROE高達38%；浙江龍盛，化工染料龍頭，主營產品爲分散染料和活性染料，染料產量佔全國市場25%，分散染料產能全球第一，過去三年平均ROE17%；浙江鼎立，工程機械高空作業平臺龍頭，國內品牌no1，全球市佔率2.2%，距全球龍頭還有較遠距離，有巨大份額提升空間，過去三年平均ROE18%；恆立液壓，工程機械高壓油缸龍頭，其中挖掘機油缸國內市佔率超過50%，小挖泵閥市佔率近30%，過去三年平均ROE18%；福耀玻璃，汽車玻璃龍頭，全球市場佔有率27%，","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/bd4449beb7c97e52c42592303d73e9b0","width":"688","height":"293"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":2,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/312306111","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":0,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":477,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":319641132,"gmtCreate":1611583280426,"gmtModify":1704860963718,"author":{"id":"3573863078476577","authorId":"3573863078476577","name":"磐石533","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3acfdf718b918510c617d15517144155","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3573863078476577","authorIdStr":"3573863078476577"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"?","listText":"?","text":"?","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/319641132","repostId":"1141326151","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1141326151","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1611582126,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1141326151?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2021-01-25 21:42","market":"sh","language":"zh","title":"In the next 10 years, the investment market will focus on three major directions","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1141326151","media":"GGV纪源资本","summary":"2020年，中国甚至全球的任何一个行业、领域，包括投资市场，都被一个主旋律贯穿——新冠疫情。然而，疫情并不代表停滞、萎缩，在疫情之下，投资市场其实蕴藏着巨大的机遇，酝酿着一场新的变革。\n作为投资机构，","content":"<p><i>In 2020, any industry and field in China and even the world, including the investment market, will be run through by a main theme-COVID-19 pandemic. However, the epidemic does not mean stagnation or shrinkage. Under the epidemic, the investment market actually contains huge opportunities and a new change is brewing.</i></p><p><i>As an investment institution, it is particularly important to adjust and manage Portfolio, avoid risks, and discover new investment opportunities in time during the epidemic. It was at the beginning of the domestic epidemic that we realized the seriousness of the situation in time, and made preparations to enter the \"combat\" state.</i></p><p><i>During this period, we have paid more attention to the previously optimistic educational technology, entertainment and health technology, as well as enterprise services that \"help companies move R&D processes online\". However, the previously popular robot industry, although its development is limited in the short term, but there are opportunities in the long run. Especially during the epidemic, the work and lifestyle of home office for all people has greatly promoted the development of online education and entertainment-related industries. Even in the field of enterprise automation, although there is great uncertainty, the development momentum is positive in the long run. Of course, more importantly, enterprises must survive before they can see and explore opportunities. This is another story.</i></p><p><i>While analyzing the situation of Portfolio, the invested enterprises, increasing revenue and reducing expenditure, we also promptly asked the invested enterprises to pay attention to the latest information on the epidemic, and at the same time passed on the news to partners such as the United States and Italy who had not yet broken out at that time, as well as raw material and accessories suppliers, etc., so that they can either seize the time to raise funds or end unfinished projects as soon as possible. This also allows the invested enterprises to quickly adjust their strategies before the global large-scale outbreak, and make sufficient preparations for products and supply chains.</i></p><p><i>On the other hand, when the epidemic breaks out, another important measure we take to avoid risks is to shift our focus. Under normal circumstances, the investment work mainly involves several aspects of \"fundraising, management, investment and withdrawal\". However, when the Q1 epidemic broke out, we put \"management\" on the agenda. Basically, we didn't look at too many new deals, and first managed the project at hand. By Q2, China has slowly entered a state of recovery, and then returned part of its energy to \"investment\".</i></p><p><i>From the perspective of \"investment\", the epidemic has accelerated digital and intelligent technologies. Since Q2, we have accelerated investment in education, automation, enterprise services and other sectors, because under the catalysis of the epidemic, it will only take 3-5 years to see returns. For projects with returns, it may be shortened to 1-2 years to see returns.</i></p><p><i>Our global layout and global vision have laid the foundation for the company's good development in 2020. Therefore, in the evaluation of invested companies at the end of the year, the results were unexpectedly good. In Q1, 86% of the companies we invested in had cash flow of more than 12 months, the proportion in Q2 even rose to 94%, and overall, our investment scale in Q2 and Q3 of 2020, both in terms of amount and number of projects, actually exceeded that of the whole year of 2019.</i></p><p><i>It can be seen that a large part of our good performance during the epidemic should be attributed to the global perspective. We not only pay attention to China's trends, but also pay attention to the global macro situation and make timely adjustments. In fact, this is also the advice I want to give to investors and entrepreneurs. As start-ups and entrepreneurs, you should have a global vision and overall awareness at the start-up stage. It is far from enough to only pay attention to micro-trends. It is necessary to always be alert to changes in global economic and political dynamics.</i></p><p><i>In my opinion, sometimes the market seems pessimistic, but in fact there is a dawn in a certain corner. As an entrepreneur, you need to let yourself out of the stage where you can see the dawn. This is the foresight that all investment companies should have.</i></p><p><i><b>1.</b></i><i><b>Several promising trends in the past</b></i></p><p><b>Technology trends in 2019 remain unchanged but will accelerate due to the pandemic</b></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e2ead4b66bde34cff32a10d1eee9e197\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"443\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">Looking back on 2020, I focused more on promoting the development of new business segments through technological reform. Overall, compared with 2019,<b>Several technological trends that I am optimistic about in 2020 have not only remained unchanged, but have also accelerated due to the epidemic. These directions include transportation, logistics, smart cities, and consumer services.</b></p><p><i><b>1. Transformation of transportation</b></i></p><p><b>With the support of new infrastructure policies, the transportation industry continues to evolve. The underlying infrastructure supports the transformation of transportation modes. Shared/autonomous driving and land-air autonomous driving technologies are further developed: such as charging, batteries and upgrades of physical infrastructure such as parking.</b></p><p><i><b>2. Logistics and distribution</b></i></p><p><b>The epidemic has greatly catalyzed the development of new automated logistics technologies such as machine automation and warehousing robots. Freight logistics, warehousing logistics, grocery and food automation have been implemented in many scenarios.</b>For example, in terms of food delivery robots, there are already some startups in the United States trying new models, and there are also some in China, but more of them have undergone greater changes in logistics and distribution. The scenarios will be different, but the basic technical modules are similar, except whether the automatic navigation is indoors or outdoors, or the speed is different. All this is due to the progress of underlying \"hard-core technologies\" such as sensors, batteries, chips and systems, controllers and cloud technology.</p><p><i><b>3. Smart City</b></i></p><p><b>New smart cities have reshaped the way of transportation and automation, changing people's daily lives, and industrial, commercial and home robots have penetrated into all aspects of people's lives.</b>I have been paying attention to this field since 2014. In 2019, we believed that its development momentum was strong, and the epidemic has accelerated the layout of smart cities in the United States, China, and Southeast Asia. By 2021, I am still very optimistic about the development in this direction.</p><p><i><b>4. Consumer server evolution</b></i></p><p>Many people may question that there are already too many games and social products in China. Is there no chance for consumer services?<b>But actually, I think there is more room for consumer services domestically.</b></p><p>Among them, educational technology is one of the next key directions in consumer services, because in addition to consuming content videos, knowledge and learning will be the consumption directions of adults and K12.<b>Seeing the shortcomings of the education 1.0 era, we began to deploy in this field 4 or 5 years ago, thinking about how to transform the education model through new technological elements such as AI, real-time technology, immersion technology, cloud, and product composition, and complete the real educational mission. There will be more evolution on the consumer side in the future, and educational technology is one of the important sections.</b></p><p>At the same time, the next generation of new entertainment technology is also another section of the consumer server that I see that may undergo changes. Real-time, immersive and cloud will shape new entertainment methods for film and television production, drones, AI editing, Virtual engines, etc., have great potential for continuous layout in real-time interaction, live game broadcast, and VR virtual world technology. It is expected that in the next five years, the development process of new entertainment technology will be faster.</p><p><i><b>5. More enterprise software and process technology</b></i></p><p>Another direction is the related fields of enterprise software process technology.<b>I simply divide the things involved in this field into two categories. From the technical level, it is cloud, SaaS and security, that is, from productization to process management for small and medium-sized enterprises; The second category is DPA (Digital Process Automation), which involves the use of new technologies such as low-code and no-code to automate and digitize management processes.</b></p><p>This is actually not a new field, but there will be some new adjustments every 3-5 years. I think that when the United States, China and Southeast Asia enter the enterprise-centered era, technical automation software, algorithms and solutions will be promoted to the top, and HR, CRM, OPR, low-code, and no-code software will become the key words for the development of enterprise software and process technology.</p><p><b>In summary, digital automation solutions enable enterprise organizations to automate one or more enterprise processes using digital technologies, and DPA can achieve this through advanced technologies such as machine learning, RPA, and AI.</b></p><p><i><b>Two,</b></i><i><b><i><b>Down</b></i></b></i><i><b>A 10-year promising development trend</b></i></p><p><b>In the next 10 years, the consumer service side will evolve, food and health technology will emerge, more enterprise software, process technology</b></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5c65a9c7b44a91d6fc9520a0aeec8a9c\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"435\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">In addition to these major technology-driven areas that I have focused on in the past,<b>In the next 10 years, I will also focus on food technology and health technology.</b></p><p><i><b>1. The emergence of food technology</b></i></p><p>At present, although food health technology is still in an early stage of development, in the next 5-10 years, I expect that the United States, China or Southeast Asia may see more new unicorns emerge.</p><p><b>The reason is very simple. Food science and technology has high technological content, and there are opportunities in all aspects from food mention to automated processing.</b>The food supply problems exposed during the epidemic when global logistics was not circulating have made many countries realize the importance of independent food supply and begin to think about whether there can be food substitutes. This may not be important in normal times, but during the epidemic, the issue of food supply will come to the forefront.</p><p><b>Specifically, from farming methods (such as hydroponics), harvesting methods (such as automation), production processes (such as central kitchen) to food substitution (such as cells, plants, etc.), the entire food health industry chain will undergo tremendous changes.</b></p><p><i><b>2. Health technology attracts attention</b></i></p><p>Health technology also contains many opportunities,<b>The reason why health technology is important is that everyone's health awareness is improving all over the world. Whether it is health monitoring, disease treatment, review, healthy food and health care, people are concerned about it. We will continue to pay attention to this field and accelerate investment.</b></p><p>Three directions can be summarized in health technology: the first direction is to use AI and Internet technology for remote consultation and communication with doctors;</p><p>The second direction is to use AI and Internet technology for condition analysis and diagnosis, and use robots for surgery;</p><p>The third direction is to use AI and algorithms to accelerate the development of new drugs, such as vaccine research and development, use algorithms for genetic testing and analysis to accelerate the development of new drugs, and use them to prevent diseases. These will become valuable development directions in the field of health science and technology.</p><p><b>Three,</b><i><b>Three major trends likely to happen in the market in 2021</b></i></p><p><b>From the business and market level, startup founders need to pay more attention to the macro market and environment in 2021, because this will affect our micro decisions at any time.</b>In my opinion, there are three major trends to focus on in 2021:</p><p>First, offline businesses, such as retail, hotels and other industries, will undergo tremendous changes. Many companies may close down or be integrated. After 2021, it is expected that more bad news will come out;</p><p>The second trend is that the Internet industry will enter a state of merger. The integration of capital in 2021 will enter the second half. In the first half, many companies have constant financing news, but in the second half, small businesses may actually encounter financing difficulties. When the business and brand cannot keep up, they will enter a vicious circle, and the relatively mature Internet industry will also undergo integration and merger;</p><p>Third, Internet giants may be spun off, because the excessive scale of enterprises will cause some problems. While risks increase, capital efficiency may not be high. The spin-off of business can not only ensure that capital can operate better, but also Improve team management efficiency.</p>","source":"lsy1595332659624","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>In the next 10 years, the investment market will focus on three major directions</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nIn the next 10 years, the investment market will focus on three major directions\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">GGV纪源资本</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-01-25 21:42</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><i>In 2020, any industry and field in China and even the world, including the investment market, will be run through by a main theme-COVID-19 pandemic. However, the epidemic does not mean stagnation or shrinkage. Under the epidemic, the investment market actually contains huge opportunities and a new change is brewing.</i></p><p><i>As an investment institution, it is particularly important to adjust and manage Portfolio, avoid risks, and discover new investment opportunities in time during the epidemic. It was at the beginning of the domestic epidemic that we realized the seriousness of the situation in time, and made preparations to enter the \"combat\" state.</i></p><p><i>During this period, we have paid more attention to the previously optimistic educational technology, entertainment and health technology, as well as enterprise services that \"help companies move R&D processes online\". However, the previously popular robot industry, although its development is limited in the short term, but there are opportunities in the long run. Especially during the epidemic, the work and lifestyle of home office for all people has greatly promoted the development of online education and entertainment-related industries. Even in the field of enterprise automation, although there is great uncertainty, the development momentum is positive in the long run. Of course, more importantly, enterprises must survive before they can see and explore opportunities. This is another story.</i></p><p><i>While analyzing the situation of Portfolio, the invested enterprises, increasing revenue and reducing expenditure, we also promptly asked the invested enterprises to pay attention to the latest information on the epidemic, and at the same time passed on the news to partners such as the United States and Italy who had not yet broken out at that time, as well as raw material and accessories suppliers, etc., so that they can either seize the time to raise funds or end unfinished projects as soon as possible. This also allows the invested enterprises to quickly adjust their strategies before the global large-scale outbreak, and make sufficient preparations for products and supply chains.</i></p><p><i>On the other hand, when the epidemic breaks out, another important measure we take to avoid risks is to shift our focus. Under normal circumstances, the investment work mainly involves several aspects of \"fundraising, management, investment and withdrawal\". However, when the Q1 epidemic broke out, we put \"management\" on the agenda. Basically, we didn't look at too many new deals, and first managed the project at hand. By Q2, China has slowly entered a state of recovery, and then returned part of its energy to \"investment\".</i></p><p><i>From the perspective of \"investment\", the epidemic has accelerated digital and intelligent technologies. Since Q2, we have accelerated investment in education, automation, enterprise services and other sectors, because under the catalysis of the epidemic, it will only take 3-5 years to see returns. For projects with returns, it may be shortened to 1-2 years to see returns.</i></p><p><i>Our global layout and global vision have laid the foundation for the company's good development in 2020. Therefore, in the evaluation of invested companies at the end of the year, the results were unexpectedly good. In Q1, 86% of the companies we invested in had cash flow of more than 12 months, the proportion in Q2 even rose to 94%, and overall, our investment scale in Q2 and Q3 of 2020, both in terms of amount and number of projects, actually exceeded that of the whole year of 2019.</i></p><p><i>It can be seen that a large part of our good performance during the epidemic should be attributed to the global perspective. We not only pay attention to China's trends, but also pay attention to the global macro situation and make timely adjustments. In fact, this is also the advice I want to give to investors and entrepreneurs. As start-ups and entrepreneurs, you should have a global vision and overall awareness at the start-up stage. It is far from enough to only pay attention to micro-trends. It is necessary to always be alert to changes in global economic and political dynamics.</i></p><p><i>In my opinion, sometimes the market seems pessimistic, but in fact there is a dawn in a certain corner. As an entrepreneur, you need to let yourself out of the stage where you can see the dawn. This is the foresight that all investment companies should have.</i></p><p><i><b>1.</b></i><i><b>Several promising trends in the past</b></i></p><p><b>Technology trends in 2019 remain unchanged but will accelerate due to the pandemic</b></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e2ead4b66bde34cff32a10d1eee9e197\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"443\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">Looking back on 2020, I focused more on promoting the development of new business segments through technological reform. Overall, compared with 2019,<b>Several technological trends that I am optimistic about in 2020 have not only remained unchanged, but have also accelerated due to the epidemic. These directions include transportation, logistics, smart cities, and consumer services.</b></p><p><i><b>1. Transformation of transportation</b></i></p><p><b>With the support of new infrastructure policies, the transportation industry continues to evolve. The underlying infrastructure supports the transformation of transportation modes. Shared/autonomous driving and land-air autonomous driving technologies are further developed: such as charging, batteries and upgrades of physical infrastructure such as parking.</b></p><p><i><b>2. Logistics and distribution</b></i></p><p><b>The epidemic has greatly catalyzed the development of new automated logistics technologies such as machine automation and warehousing robots. Freight logistics, warehousing logistics, grocery and food automation have been implemented in many scenarios.</b>For example, in terms of food delivery robots, there are already some startups in the United States trying new models, and there are also some in China, but more of them have undergone greater changes in logistics and distribution. The scenarios will be different, but the basic technical modules are similar, except whether the automatic navigation is indoors or outdoors, or the speed is different. All this is due to the progress of underlying \"hard-core technologies\" such as sensors, batteries, chips and systems, controllers and cloud technology.</p><p><i><b>3. Smart City</b></i></p><p><b>New smart cities have reshaped the way of transportation and automation, changing people's daily lives, and industrial, commercial and home robots have penetrated into all aspects of people's lives.</b>I have been paying attention to this field since 2014. In 2019, we believed that its development momentum was strong, and the epidemic has accelerated the layout of smart cities in the United States, China, and Southeast Asia. By 2021, I am still very optimistic about the development in this direction.</p><p><i><b>4. Consumer server evolution</b></i></p><p>Many people may question that there are already too many games and social products in China. Is there no chance for consumer services?<b>But actually, I think there is more room for consumer services domestically.</b></p><p>Among them, educational technology is one of the next key directions in consumer services, because in addition to consuming content videos, knowledge and learning will be the consumption directions of adults and K12.<b>Seeing the shortcomings of the education 1.0 era, we began to deploy in this field 4 or 5 years ago, thinking about how to transform the education model through new technological elements such as AI, real-time technology, immersion technology, cloud, and product composition, and complete the real educational mission. There will be more evolution on the consumer side in the future, and educational technology is one of the important sections.</b></p><p>At the same time, the next generation of new entertainment technology is also another section of the consumer server that I see that may undergo changes. Real-time, immersive and cloud will shape new entertainment methods for film and television production, drones, AI editing, Virtual engines, etc., have great potential for continuous layout in real-time interaction, live game broadcast, and VR virtual world technology. It is expected that in the next five years, the development process of new entertainment technology will be faster.</p><p><i><b>5. More enterprise software and process technology</b></i></p><p>Another direction is the related fields of enterprise software process technology.<b>I simply divide the things involved in this field into two categories. From the technical level, it is cloud, SaaS and security, that is, from productization to process management for small and medium-sized enterprises; The second category is DPA (Digital Process Automation), which involves the use of new technologies such as low-code and no-code to automate and digitize management processes.</b></p><p>This is actually not a new field, but there will be some new adjustments every 3-5 years. I think that when the United States, China and Southeast Asia enter the enterprise-centered era, technical automation software, algorithms and solutions will be promoted to the top, and HR, CRM, OPR, low-code, and no-code software will become the key words for the development of enterprise software and process technology.</p><p><b>In summary, digital automation solutions enable enterprise organizations to automate one or more enterprise processes using digital technologies, and DPA can achieve this through advanced technologies such as machine learning, RPA, and AI.</b></p><p><i><b>Two,</b></i><i><b><i><b>Down</b></i></b></i><i><b>A 10-year promising development trend</b></i></p><p><b>In the next 10 years, the consumer service side will evolve, food and health technology will emerge, more enterprise software, process technology</b></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5c65a9c7b44a91d6fc9520a0aeec8a9c\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"435\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">In addition to these major technology-driven areas that I have focused on in the past,<b>In the next 10 years, I will also focus on food technology and health technology.</b></p><p><i><b>1. The emergence of food technology</b></i></p><p>At present, although food health technology is still in an early stage of development, in the next 5-10 years, I expect that the United States, China or Southeast Asia may see more new unicorns emerge.</p><p><b>The reason is very simple. Food science and technology has high technological content, and there are opportunities in all aspects from food mention to automated processing.</b>The food supply problems exposed during the epidemic when global logistics was not circulating have made many countries realize the importance of independent food supply and begin to think about whether there can be food substitutes. This may not be important in normal times, but during the epidemic, the issue of food supply will come to the forefront.</p><p><b>Specifically, from farming methods (such as hydroponics), harvesting methods (such as automation), production processes (such as central kitchen) to food substitution (such as cells, plants, etc.), the entire food health industry chain will undergo tremendous changes.</b></p><p><i><b>2. Health technology attracts attention</b></i></p><p>Health technology also contains many opportunities,<b>The reason why health technology is important is that everyone's health awareness is improving all over the world. Whether it is health monitoring, disease treatment, review, healthy food and health care, people are concerned about it. We will continue to pay attention to this field and accelerate investment.</b></p><p>Three directions can be summarized in health technology: the first direction is to use AI and Internet technology for remote consultation and communication with doctors;</p><p>The second direction is to use AI and Internet technology for condition analysis and diagnosis, and use robots for surgery;</p><p>The third direction is to use AI and algorithms to accelerate the development of new drugs, such as vaccine research and development, use algorithms for genetic testing and analysis to accelerate the development of new drugs, and use them to prevent diseases. These will become valuable development directions in the field of health science and technology.</p><p><b>Three,</b><i><b>Three major trends likely to happen in the market in 2021</b></i></p><p><b>From the business and market level, startup founders need to pay more attention to the macro market and environment in 2021, because this will affect our micro decisions at any time.</b>In my opinion, there are three major trends to focus on in 2021:</p><p>First, offline businesses, such as retail, hotels and other industries, will undergo tremendous changes. Many companies may close down or be integrated. After 2021, it is expected that more bad news will come out;</p><p>The second trend is that the Internet industry will enter a state of merger. The integration of capital in 2021 will enter the second half. In the first half, many companies have constant financing news, but in the second half, small businesses may actually encounter financing difficulties. When the business and brand cannot keep up, they will enter a vicious circle, and the relatively mature Internet industry will also undergo integration and merger;</p><p>Third, Internet giants may be spun off, because the excessive scale of enterprises will cause some problems. While risks increase, capital efficiency may not be high. The spin-off of business can not only ensure that capital can operate better, but also Improve team management efficiency.</p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> source：<a href=\"https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s/SZ3uleWIJdcSLbGCLlYy-Q\">GGV纪源资本</a></p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1a5005a4fb17f82b72b77794606c555d","relate_stocks":{},"source_url":"https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s/SZ3uleWIJdcSLbGCLlYy-Q","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1141326151","content_text":"2020年，中国甚至全球的任何一个行业、领域，包括投资市场，都被一个主旋律贯穿——新冠疫情。然而，疫情并不代表停滞、萎缩，在疫情之下，投资市场其实蕴藏着巨大的机遇，酝酿着一场新的变革。\n作为投资机构，在疫情中及时调整管理被投企业Portfolio、规避风险、发现新的投资机会，这几件事情尤为重要。我们也正是在国内疫情刚萌芽时就及时意识到形势的严重性，并做好了准备工作进入“作战”状态。\n这段时间我们更多地关注之前看好的教育科技、娱乐以及健康科技，还有“帮助企业把研发的流程搬到线上”的企业服务，而之前热门的机器人行业，虽然短期内发展受限，但从长期来说是有机会的。尤其疫情期间，全民居家办公的工作和生活方式极大地促进了在线教育和娱乐相关产业的发展，即使是企业自动化领域，虽然不确定性较大，但从长期来看发展势头也是利好的。当然了，更重要的是，企业要先活下去才能看到机会，发掘机会，这就是后话了。\n在分析被投企业Portfolio情况、开源节流的同时，我们也及时地请被投企业注意疫情最新信息，同时把消息传递给当时还未爆发的美国、意大利等合作伙伴和原材料配件供应厂商等等，让他们或抓紧时间融资，或尽快结束未完成项目，这也让被投企业们在全球大规模疫情爆发之前，迅速调整战略，做好了充足的产品、供应链等准备，更好地应对了疫情。\n另一方面，疫情爆发时，我们规避风险的另一个重要措施是转变工作重点。一般情况下，投资的工作主要涉及“募管投退”几个方面，而在Q1疫情发生时，我们将“管”提上日程，基本上没有看太多新的deal，先把手头的项目管好。到Q2时，像中国已经慢慢进入恢复状态，再把一部分精力回归到“投”。\n而从“投”的角度来说，疫情加速了数字化、智能化技术，从Q2开始我们就加速投资教育、自动化、企业服务等板块，因为在疫情的催化下，3-5年才能看到的收益的项目，可能缩短到1-2年就可以看到回报。\n我们的全球布局和全球视野为公司2020年的良好发展打下了基础，因此在年末的被投企业评估中，结果竟然意外地不错，在Q1，我们投资的企业86%有现金流超过12个月，Q2这个比例甚至升至94%，且从整体上看，我们在2020年Q2和Q3的投资规模，无论是金额还是项目数量，实际上都超过了2019年全年。\n可以看到，我们之所以在疫情期间也有良好的表现，很大一部分应归功于全球视野，我们不仅关注中国的趋势，还关注全球宏观局势，并及时做出调整。其实，这也是我想给投资者和创业者发出的忠告，作为初创公司和创业者，在创业阶段就应该具备全球化的视野和全局意识，只关注微观趋势远远不够，时刻警惕全球经济动态、政治动态的变化十分必要。\n在我看来，有时候市场看似悲观，实际上在某个角落是有曙光的，作为创业者，需要让自己出在能够看到曙光的阶段，这是所有投资企业都应具备的远见卓识。\n一、过去看好的几大趋势\n2019年的技术趋势不变但会因疫情而加速\n回顾2020年，我更多关注的是通过技术改革促进新业务板块的发展。总的来说，与2019相比，2020年我看好的几个技术趋势非但不变，还因为疫情而获得了加速发展，这几个方向包括交通、物流、智慧城市、消费服务。\n1.交通出行的变革\n在新基建政策的支持下，交通出行这一行业还在继续进化中，其中的底层基础设施支撑着交通出行方式的变革，共享/自动驾驶、陆地&空中自动驾驶技术进一步发展：如充电、电池和泊车等物理基础设施的升级。\n2.物流和配送\n疫情大幅催化了机器自动化、仓储机器人等自动化物流新技术的发展，货运物流、仓储物流、杂货与食品自动化已经在很多场景落地。比如在食品配送机器人上，美国已经有一些创业公司在尝试新的模式，国内也有一些，但更多是在物流和配送上发生了更大的变化，场景会有所不同，但基本的技术模块是类似的，只是自动导航在室内还是室外，或者速度快慢上的不同。这一切，得益于传感器、电池、芯片和系统、操控器与云技术等底层“硬核科技”的进步。\n3.智慧城市\n新型的智慧城市重塑了交通与自动化的方式，改变了人们的日常生活，工业、商业和家居机器人渗透到人们生活的方方面面。我从2014年起就开始关注这一领域，2019年我们认为其发展势头强劲，疫情更是加快了美国、中国、东南亚的智慧城市布局，到2021年，我仍然非常看好这一方向的发展。\n4.消费服务端进化\n很多人可能会质疑，国内已经有太多的游戏、社交产品，消费服务是不是已经没机会了？但实际上，我认为国内的消费服务领域还有更多空间。\n其中，教育科技是消费服务中下一个重点方向之一，因为除了消费内容视频，知识、学习将是成人和K12的消费方向。看到教育1.0时代的弊端，我们在4、5年前就已经开始在这个领域布局，思考如何通过AI、实时技术、沉浸技术、云等新科技元素，以及产品构成来改造教育模式，完成真正的教育使命。消费服务端未来会有更多进化，而教育科技就是其中一个重要版块。\n同时，下一代新娱乐科技也是我看到的消费服务端另一个可能发生变革的版块，实时、沉浸式和云将会塑造新的娱乐方式，用于影视化制作、无人机、AI编辑、虚拟引擎等，在实时互动、游戏直播、VR虚拟世界技术上持续布局大有可为。预计未来5年，新娱乐科技的发展进程会更快。\n5.更多企业软件与流程科技\n另一个方向是企业软件流程科技相关领域，我简单地将这个领域涉及的东西分为两类，从技术层面上是云、SaaS和安全，即从产品化到给中小型企业的流程管理；第二类是DPA（Digital Process Automation，数字自动化），这其中涉及利用低代码、无代码等新技术实现管理流程自动化与数据化。\n这其实并不是一个新的领域，但是每隔3-5年会出现一些新的调整，我认为当美国、中国和东南亚进入到以企业为中心的时代后，技术自动化软件、算法和方案都将被提升到首位，而HR、CRM、OPR、低代码、无代码软件将是成为企业软件与流程科技发展的关键词。\n总之，数字自动化解决方案使得企业组织能够使用数字化技术自动化一个或多个企业流程，DPA可以通过机器学习、RPA和AI等先进技术实现这一点。\n二、下个10年看好的发展趋势\n下个10年，消费服务端进化，食品健康科技涌现，更多企业软件，流程科技\n除了过去我关注的这几大技术驱动型的领域，未来10年，我还会重点关注食品科技和健康科技等方向。\n1.食品科技涌现\n目前，食品健康科技虽然还处于较早的发展阶段，但未来5-10年，我预计美国、中国或东南亚都有可能看到更多新的独角兽出现。\n理由很简单，食品科技科技含量很高，从食品提到到自动化处理等各个环节都蕴藏着机会。疫情期间全球物流不流通的情况下暴露出的食品供应问题，更是让很多国家意识到了食品供应独立的重要性，并开始思考是否可以有食品替代物。这一点在平常可能不重要，但是在疫情期间，食品的供应问题会提到首位。\n具体说来，从耕作方式（如水耕法）、收割方式（如自动化）、制作流程（如中央厨房）到食品替代（如用细胞、植物等替代），食品健康整个产业链都将发生巨大的变化。\n2.健康科技受关注\n健康科技同样蕴藏着很多机会，健康科技之所以重要，是因为在全球范围内，大家的健康意识都在提高，无论是健康监测，还是疾病治疗、复查、健康食品保健都是人们所关注的，我们也会持续关注这一领域并加速投入。\n健康科技里可以概括出三个方向：第一个方向是利用AI和互联网技术进行远程咨询，与医生进行沟通；\n第二个方向是用AI与互联网技术进行病情分析与诊断，以及用机器人进行手术等；\n第三个方向是用AI与算法加速新药物研发，如疫苗研发，用算法进行基因检测分析加速新药物研发，以及用于预防性疾病等。这些都将成为健康科技领域有价值的发展方向。\n三、2021年市场上可能会发生的三大趋势\n从业务和市场的层面， 2021年创业公司创始人们更加需要注意宏观市场和环境，因为这会随时影响我们的微观决策。在我看来，2021年需要关注三大趋势，：\n一是线下业务，如零售、酒店等行业将会发生巨大的变革，也许会有很多企业倒闭或被整合，2021年之后一段时间，预计会有更多的坏消息传出；\n第二个趋势是互联网行业会进入合并的状态，2021资本的整合将进入下半场，上半场的时候很多企业都融资消息不断，但到了下半场，小企业实际上可能会发生融资困难的情况，当业务与品牌跟不上时，就会进入恶性循环，比较成熟的互联网行业，也将发生整合与合并；\n第三，互联网巨头可能将出现分拆，因为企业规模过大会造成一些问题，风险增大的同时，资本效率可能并不高，而分拆业务，既可以保障资本可以更好地运作，还可以提升团队管理效率。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":488,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":319822626,"gmtCreate":1611569155565,"gmtModify":1704860805668,"author":{"id":"3573863078476577","authorId":"3573863078476577","name":"磐石533","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3acfdf718b918510c617d15517144155","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3573863078476577","authorIdStr":"3573863078476577"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"?","listText":"?","text":"?","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/319822626","repostId":"2105463676","repostType":2,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":642,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0}],"lives":[]}