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Cathief

Cathief

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2022-04-27

Every other day is tumbling news....

U.S. Stocks Tumbled with Nasdaq Composite Falling 3%

2022-04-24

Better buck up!

Sorry, the original content has been removed

2022-07-05

Consumers goods gonna be more and more expensive.

Vital TSMC Supplier Warns of Chip Material Price Hikes into 2023

2021-07-02

Waiting for TSMC to hike!

Apple, Intel become first to adopt TSMC's latest chip tech - Nikkei

2021-03-25

The market is mad and it is increasingly annoying when prices are continously being pushed down by non sensical monsters. Argh.

Sorry, the original content has been removed

2021-03-30

$Sundial Growers Inc.(SNDL)$can u stop being so slow?! UP already can ?

2022-08-28

So you can see, you don't want to buy what's done well recently, in fact, you want to do just the opposite.

QQQ: An Excessive Bust Is Coming

2022-03-01

But there are also alot of companies that doesnt use Zoom for security reasons...

Market Correction: 2 Top Tech Stocks Down 63% and 78% to Buy Right Now

2022-07-27

Swinging game

EV Stocks Slid in Morning Trading

2022-07-15

Lol, oh precious toilet paper.

Nvidia And Micron Face Toilet Paper Hoarding Moment

Go to Tiger App to see more news

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coming, wait for a big disruption.","listText":"Its coming, wait for a big disruption.","text":"Its coming, wait for a big disruption.","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/252047913668904","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2703,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9957077746,"gmtCreate":1676855033886,"gmtModify":1676858184740,"author":{"id":"3574595239855745","authorId":"3574595239855745","name":"Cathief","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3e45013d2ed26f004a85c3c015679222","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3574595239855745","authorIdStr":"3574595239855745"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Interesting.&nbsp; And now I wonder is ChatGPT hackable? What if one day hackers use ChatGPT to stir shit? Just saying out loud.&nbsp; But for sure now, ChatGPT is way smarter than any lame bot apps or platforms have 😂","listText":"Interesting.&nbsp; And now I wonder is ChatGPT hackable? What if one day hackers use ChatGPT to stir shit? Just saying out loud.&nbsp; But for sure now, ChatGPT is way smarter than any lame bot apps or platforms have 😂","text":"Interesting. And now I wonder is ChatGPT hackable? What if one day hackers use ChatGPT to stir shit? Just saying out loud. But for sure now, ChatGPT is way smarter than any lame bot apps or platforms have 😂","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9957077746","repostId":"1150067923","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1150067923","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1676779057,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1150067923?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2023-02-19 11:57","market":"other","language":"en","title":"I Asked ChatGPT for 10 Cryptos to Buy. Here’s What It Recommended","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1150067923","media":"InvestorPlace","summary":"Artificial intelligence (AI) tool ChatGPThas countless use-cases, and InvestorPlace decided to have ","content":"<div>\n<p>Artificial intelligence (AI) tool ChatGPThas countless use-cases, and InvestorPlace decided to have it recommend high-growth cryptos.The model is able to give a list of cryptos to buy, complete with ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://investorplace.com/2023/02/i-asked-chatgpt-for-10-cryptos-to-buy-heres-what-it-recommended/\">Source Link</a>\n\n</div>\n","source":"investorplace","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>I Asked ChatGPT for 10 Cryptos to Buy. 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Here’s What It Recommended\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2023-02-19 11:57 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://investorplace.com/2023/02/i-asked-chatgpt-for-10-cryptos-to-buy-heres-what-it-recommended/><strong>InvestorPlace</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>Artificial intelligence (AI) tool ChatGPThas countless use-cases, and InvestorPlace decided to have it recommend high-growth cryptos.The model is able to give a list of cryptos to buy, complete with ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://investorplace.com/2023/02/i-asked-chatgpt-for-10-cryptos-to-buy-heres-what-it-recommended/\">Source Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{},"source_url":"https://investorplace.com/2023/02/i-asked-chatgpt-for-10-cryptos-to-buy-heres-what-it-recommended/","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1150067923","content_text":"Artificial intelligence (AI) tool ChatGPThas countless use-cases, and InvestorPlace decided to have it recommend high-growth cryptos.The model is able to give a list of cryptos to buy, complete with its highlights and weak points for each project.ChatGPT also told InvestorPlaceits predictions for the coming year in crypto.The artificial intelligence (AI) war is on. The rise in popularity among AI image generators like Jasper and DeepAI last year were just the early stages of the much larger boom happening right now. Tools like OpenAI’s ChatGPT have taken the world by storm, for better or for worse. Now, anybody can go to theChatGPT website(when it’s not at capacity) and ask it any question they want. I decided to ask it which cryptos to buy.There’s a lot that goes into AI algorithms and programming, so much so that it soars over the head of the layman. It’s these seemingly-unending layers of engineering that allow us to prompt the tool to fix our code, write us stories or explain complex subjects to us. In making investment decisions, the tool works no differently.I recently logged onto ChatGPT and asked it to recommend me 10 cryptos to buy based on growth potential. This is the list it gave me:Ethereum(ETH-USD)Solana(SOL-USD)Polkadot(DOT-USD)Avalanche(AVAX-USD)Cosmos(ATOM-USD)Chainlink(LINK-USD)Algorand(ALGO-USD)Polygon(MATIC-USD)Terra(LUNA-USD)Binance Coin(BNB-USD)ChatGPT Explains Its “Cryptos to Buy” MethodologyChatGPT’s recommended list of cryptos to buy is pretty interesting. I asked it to explain its methodology a bit, and was surprised to find that the tool utilizes both qualitative and quantitative data in weighing its opinions.Unsurprisingly, the first thing ChatGPT used to make its recommendation was quantitative chart analysis — a favorite methodology used by crypto die-hards far and wide:“I selected the top 10 cryptocurrencies with the highest market capitalizations, which are generally considered to be the most established and widely adopted cryptocurrencies in the market. From there, I considered their historical performance, looking at factors such as price trends, trading volume and market share to identify which cryptocurrencies have demonstrated strong growth potential over time.”What was more interesting was ChatGPT’s use of qualitative data in weighing its picks. The AI says it analyzes each products’ “underlying technology, use cases, adoption and regulatory environment” in making its selections.ChatGPT Defends Its Picks for Cryptos to BuyThis holistic approach to crypto analysis ensures the AI makes recommendations based less on price momentum and more on strong fundamentals. However, seeing some interesting inclusions (and one very noticeable exclusion), I felt the need to press it more.Why Terra? The project has seen complete and utter failure at the hands of poor management in the last year, and its founder has been on the run from the law ever since the original project imploded and bankrupted several companies. ChatGPT admits it could be a lack of information which prompted the pick; indeed, if the tool had data on the project since its mid-May collapse, it would likely have better judgement than to pick a project many consider flawed and unwanted by the community at-large.And, of course, why is there no Bitcoin(BTC-USD)? It’s the largest of cryptos, easily the most recognizable and the one which prompted the crypto movement in the first place. It appears that from both quantitative and qualitative standpoints, ChatGPT remains skeptical of Bitcoin’s future:“While [Bitcoin] may continue to grow over time, it may not experience the same level of growth as some of the newer cryptocurrencies that are still in the early stages of development. Additionally, Bitcoin’s use case is primarily as a store of value and a digital currency, whereas some of the other cryptocurrencies that I recommended have more specific use cases and potential for growth in specific industries or markets.”Who Does ChatGPT Expect to Win the Layer-1 Race?As for the rest of the list of cryptos to buy, investors might be impressed by ChatGPT’s crypto picking abilities. Lots of the other cryptos recommended are wildly popular projects, and they all have great potential for growth. One thing to note is that seven of the ten are primarily layer-1 dapp networks. Binance hosts a BNB Chain alongside its exchange platform, making for a total of eight.With this in mind, I was interested in hearing ChatGPT’s take on the battle between layer-1 networks to compete with and potentially overtake Ethereum. It positions Solana, Polkadot and Avalanche as three of the most likely projects to surpass Ethereum in the coming years.Solana, it says, has an edge due to its low cost and high scalability, but notes a downside in its “proof of history” consensus mechanism being nascent and untested as opposed to proof of stake. Meanwhile, the AI praises Polkadot’s interoperability, but acknowledges the project’s governance structure “could lead to potential centralization issues in the future.”Regarding Avalanche, the program speaks highly of its own unique consensus. But, it acknowledges the drawback that like Solana, it is unproven, and like Polkadot, it could lead to higher centralization.In all, the AI provides some very nuanced takes on each project. I am quite impressed by the depth at which ChatGPT analyzes these investments, and many other investors likely feel the same. However, the drawbacks are quite clear, as it seems to lack the most up-to-date information on each project. In a market where news moves exceptionally fast and projects can soar or tank in minutes, this is a major fault line in the tool.For this, the AI is very careful to respond to each question with the ever-popular crypto catchphrase of “do your own research.” For example, it stated, “Conduct your own research and consider all available information, including any potential risks and challenges, before making any investment decisions.” When pressed on whether or not asking the tool these questions was doing my own research, it pointed me to speak with investing professionals before buying any of its recommendations.What Does ChatGPT See for the Future of Crypto?Obviously, ChatGPT has a robust set of data on the cryptocurrency world. And, it can pick from this pool of data to give some insightful opinions on individual projects. Before logging off to free up capacity for other curious users, I had to hear the AI’s predictions for the future of crypto.The model assumes a fairly positive outlook for the crypto market in 2023. It predicts an overall-bullish trajectory for the industry, primarily due to the increasing adoption of crypto and blockchain technology by institutions. “We have seen more and more companies and financial institutions embrace cryptocurrencies as a legitimate asset class, and this trend is expected to continue.” It also gives credit to the increasing functionality of new projects as a reason to believe more investors will enter into the space.Moreover, the model has a more optimistic take on regulations than many may care to admit. Indeed, while the Securities & Exchange Commission, the U.S. Department of the Treasury, the European Union and countless others crack down on projects, the AI argues this is good news. It says these regulators are “providing greater clarity and legitimacy to the market, which could in turn drive increased adoption.” This, it contends, would then put pressure on regulators to provide clearer guidance to facilitate the entry of more projects onto the market.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2812,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9957077990,"gmtCreate":1676854783210,"gmtModify":1676854789874,"author":{"id":"3574595239855745","authorId":"3574595239855745","name":"Cathief","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3e45013d2ed26f004a85c3c015679222","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3574595239855745","authorIdStr":"3574595239855745"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Again!","listText":"Again!","text":"Again!","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9957077990","repostId":"1119784469","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1119784469","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1676852037,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1119784469?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2023-02-20 08:13","market":"other","language":"en","title":"As Bitcoin Hits $25,000 Ceiling, Experts Say Investors Turning To Crypto As A Safe Haven","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1119784469","media":"Benzinga","summary":"ZINGER KEY POINTSExperts link increased adoption to BTC's surging valuation.Positive outlook for the","content":"<div>\n<p>ZINGER KEY POINTSExperts link increased adoption to BTC's surging valuation.Positive outlook for the cryptocurrency market, according to industry veterans.The world’s largest digital currency Bitcoin ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://www.benzinga.com/markets/cryptocurrency/23/02/30973504/as-bitcoin-hits-25-000-ceiling-experts-say-investors-turning-to-crypto-as-a-safe-haven\">Source Link</a>\n\n</div>\n","source":"lsy1606299360108","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>As Bitcoin Hits $25,000 Ceiling, Experts Say Investors Turning To Crypto As A Safe Haven</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; 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overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nAs Bitcoin Hits $25,000 Ceiling, Experts Say Investors Turning To Crypto As A Safe Haven\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2023-02-20 08:13 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://www.benzinga.com/markets/cryptocurrency/23/02/30973504/as-bitcoin-hits-25-000-ceiling-experts-say-investors-turning-to-crypto-as-a-safe-haven><strong>Benzinga</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>ZINGER KEY POINTSExperts link increased adoption to BTC's surging valuation.Positive outlook for the cryptocurrency market, according to industry veterans.The world’s largest digital currency Bitcoin ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://www.benzinga.com/markets/cryptocurrency/23/02/30973504/as-bitcoin-hits-25-000-ceiling-experts-say-investors-turning-to-crypto-as-a-safe-haven\">Source Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{},"source_url":"https://www.benzinga.com/markets/cryptocurrency/23/02/30973504/as-bitcoin-hits-25-000-ceiling-experts-say-investors-turning-to-crypto-as-a-safe-haven","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1119784469","content_text":"ZINGER KEY POINTSExperts link increased adoption to BTC's surging valuation.Positive outlook for the cryptocurrency market, according to industry veterans.The world’s largest digital currency Bitcoin broke the $25,000 mark last week, reaching a new high for 2023, a stark contrast to November when the cryptocurrency saw a significant drop to a 2022 low of $15,742 following the FTX crisis.The apex crypto's value began to increase again in January and continued to do so over the course of the month.The last time BTC's value was around $25,000 was in mid-June of last year, after which it dropped to a range of $19,000 to $21,000 where it remained stagnant for several months.Industry veterans believe that the proliferation of businesses and merchants embracing BTC as a viable payment option is a crucial factor in the surging valuation of the cryptocurrency.According to the experts, the surge in BTC's price has made it an attractive option for those who are skeptical of traditional financial institutions.Azra Kojadinovic, President of, the Serbia Chapter says the recent surge in BTC prices has sparked renewed interest in cryptocurrencies, and it is likely that this trend will continue in the future.“BTC's long-term outlook remains positive, and ETH's increasing popularity as a platform for creating dApps is driving its growth. As the adoption of cryptocurrencies continues to increase, the future of the cryptocurrency market looks bright,” Kojadinovic said.According to Whitney Setiawan, research analyst at crypto exchange Bitrue, along with BTC's rise, Ethereum has also breached $1,700 for the first time in more than 3 months.“While enthusiasm is high, we may see long-term holders taking their gains, leading to a somewhat visible negative correction in short to mid-term. However, this recent upsurge has shown that the industry is becoming somewhat immune to negative regulatory pressures, and investors are taking positions that could change their bottom line in the future,” Setiawan said.Jenny Zheng, BD Lead, Bybit Web3 says with the proliferation of businesses and merchants embracing BTC as a viable payment option, the demand for the cryptocurrency has experienced a marked increase, thereby propelling its value upwards.“This groundswell of adoption is further reinforced by the rising prevalence of BTC wallets, indicating a mounting number of individuals purchasing and retaining BTC as a secure store of value or investment vehicle. The recent trend of generating BTC non-fungible tokens (NFTs) is expected to exert additional pressure on adopting BTC,” according to Zheng.The surge in BTC price is not solely attributed to its intrinsic value but is also heavily influenced by the current global economic climate.The unprecedented nature of the pandemic has caused economic turmoil, resulting in market volatility and leaving investors with a sense of insecurity.Anndy Lian, an intergovernmental blockchain expert, says investors, in response, are increasingly turning to alternative investments that offer a hedge against inflation and economic instability.“BTC is viewed by many as a safe haven asset, and its decentralized nature makes it an attractive option for those skeptical of traditional financial institutions,” he says.At the time of publication on Sunday, Bitcoin was trading at $24,571, down 2% in 24 hours, but up over 11% in the past seven days.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2906,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9994546781,"gmtCreate":1661661949146,"gmtModify":1676536557677,"author":{"id":"3574595239855745","authorId":"3574595239855745","name":"Cathief","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3e45013d2ed26f004a85c3c015679222","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3574595239855745","authorIdStr":"3574595239855745"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"So you can see, you don't want to buy what's done well recently, in fact, you want to do just the opposite.&nbsp;","listText":"So you can see, you don't want to buy what's done well recently, in fact, you want to do just the opposite.&nbsp;","text":"So you can see, you don't want to buy what's done well recently, in fact, you want to do just the opposite.","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":5,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9994546781","repostId":"1128541490","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"1128541490","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1661644682,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1128541490?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2022-08-28 07:58","market":"other","language":"en","title":"QQQ: An Excessive Bust Is Coming","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1128541490","media":"Seeking Alpha","summary":"SummaryQQQ tracks the hottest stocks in the world, American technology and the Nasdaq 100.George Soros coined the boom-bust model, in which he explained that excess on the upside often leads to excess","content":"<html><head></head><body><p>Summary</p><ul><li>QQQ tracks the hottest stocks in the world, American technology and the Nasdaq 100.</li><li>George Soros coined the boom-bust model, in which he explained that excess on the upside often leads to excess on the downside.</li><li>Looking at the fundamentals of QQQ, it could get ugly.</li><li>In the decade ahead, we project returns of 4% per annum.</li></ul><h3>The Thesis</h3><p>At the end of 2021, the <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/QQQ\">Invesco QQQ ETF</a>, which tracks theNasdaq 100, reached a PE of 39 and a cyclically adjusted PE (CAPE ratio) of 60. Legendary investor George Soros has believed for manyyears that excess on the upside leads to excess on the downside. QQQ could fall much, much further as the excess drains out of its valuation. History has shown that when the CAPE ratio reaches 60, real returns for the following 15 years settle around negative 4% per annum:</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7bc80a1f57b8dfee7b03b2b120bca92d\" tg-width=\"838\" tg-height=\"532\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/>CAPE Ratio Vs. Real Returns (Lyn Alden)</p><h3>All Aboard The Hype Train</h3><p>If there&#39;s one thing that&#39;s worked over the past decade, it was holding U.S. tech stocks. Thus, the outperformance of QQQ, which has 50% of its holdings in information technology and another 30% or so in communication and consumer tech.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9edb873b2feb324ecda807b382f4ee2e\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"304\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/>QQQ&#39;s Sector Allocations (Invesco)</p><p>Invesco advertises this ETF by pointing out its track record of outperformance and its trading volume:</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ff0af3bad598a067897135ce8fbc3795\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"175\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/>QQQ ETF (Invesco)</p><p>The problem is, tech stocks outperformed massively before the dot com bubble burst. Following the implosion of 2000, it took more than 15 years for the Nasdaq 100 to recover its losses:</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/41f19d55e2420774df33a2ea218d39de\" tg-width=\"1280\" tg-height=\"802\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/>QQQ data by YCharts</p><p>In fact, the reason QQQ has outperformed over the past 15 years is because tech underperformed from 2000 to 2010, in my opinion. This meant there were huge bargains in the sector as everyone was depressed about tech stocks. So you can see, you don&#39;t want to buy what&#39;s done well recently, in fact, you want to do just the opposite. We&#39;ve studied several investors who outperformed the market over multiple decades, from Warren Buffett, to Carl Icahn, to Sir John Templeton, to Howard Marks. They all had one thing in common, they bought when there was blood in the streets. QQQ is concentrated in the hottest sectors of the past 5 years, and that&#39;s not where you want to hunt for outsized returns:</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/66e2ddbe72a70d8cddbdf93fc4d34160\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"261\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/>Sector Performance (Fidelity)</p><p>The average S&amp;P 500 company survives only20 years, and for tech stocks, that lifespan could be even shorter as these businesses face brutal competition, and the industry is constantly changing. If we look at businesses that survived for more than200 years, we get banks like JPMorgan Chase (JPM), chemical companies like DuPont (DD), and consumer staples companies like Colgate-Palmolive (CL). These are simple and predictable businesses in industries that enjoy a very slow pace of change.</p><p>It&#39;s About To Get Ugly</p><p><b>QQQ&#39;s Top 10 Holdings</b></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/597aa9aae54335b405a9cef0e95951a2\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"290\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/>QQQ&#39;s Top 10 Holdings (Invesco)</p><p>We&#39;ve analyzed many of QQQ&#39;s top holdings individually, including <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AAPL\">Apple </a>, <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MSFT\">Microsoft </a>, <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AMZN\">Amazon </a>, <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TSLA\">Tesla </a>, Google (GOOG) (GOOGL), <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/META\">Meta </a>, and <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/COST\">Costco </a>. Marked in red above are our expected annual returns for each business, with a 10-year time horizon. Overall, this equates to a 4% expected annual return for QQQ&#39;s top holdings. In other words, you could get an inflation adjusted return of 0% per annum holding these stocks.</p><p>History has shown the market tends to swing from overly optimistic to overly pessimistic. Legendary investor George Soros coined this the boom-bust model. He believed that excessive margin, speculation, and exuberance on the upside creates excessive insolvency, fear, and selling on the downside. In other words, the larger the boom, the larger the bust. So, what do you think comes next for QQQ? If we had to wager, we&#39;d bet on an excessive bust.</p><h3>Risks To The Thesis</h3><p>Crazy things can go on longer than you expect. In 1989, the PE of the Japanese index reached 60x earnings. The Nasdaq 100 is still nowhere near this level. Enthusiasm can always return in the short-run.</p><p>Also, while Sir John Templeton has cautioned against saying &#34;this time is different,&#34; he conceded that 20% of the time it really is different. Technology stocks have defied gravity up to this point. And, holding a diversified group of technology stocks with a 30-year time horizon isn&#39;t a terrible idea. We&#39;ve seen many of these businesses develop enduring moats and compound at a rapid pace for an extended period of time. An asset-light model and rapidly growing industry is generally a good place to be. Technology should be a part of everyone&#39;s portfolio, at the right valuation.</p><p>Our Valuation</p><p>The Nasdaq 100 has aPE ratio of 27.2, but its earnings could still be at a cyclical peak, as evidenced by its much higher CAPE ratio. This means QQQ likely has earnings per share around $11.78. Looking at the aggregate of several QQQ businesses we&#39;ve analyzed, combined with the cheaper, but slower growing businesses that round out the QQQ ETF, we believe EPS will grow at 8% per annum in the decade ahead. This growth should outpace the S&amp;P 500&#39;s EPS, but the valuation is more stretched than the S&amp;P.</p><p>Our 2032 price target for QQQ is $445 per share, implying returns of 4% per annum with dividends reinvested.</p><ul><li>Growing QQQ&#39;s EPS at 8% per annum, we get $25.43 per share in 2032. We&#39;ve assigned a terminal multiple of 17.5x as we believe growth will slow slightly in the decade that follows. Keep in mind, this is a base-case scenario.</li></ul><h3>The Bottom Line</h3><p>The risk and reward is unfavorable for QQQ, and some of the exuberance we saw on the upside could reverse on the downside. It&#39;s possible you get inflation-adjusted returns of 0% per annum even after holding for 10 years. With such long-duration cash flows, QQQ is very susceptible to an increase in interest rates.</p><p><b>What To Do About It</b></p><p>We&#39;re projecting higher returns in communication companies like Meta and Google than other names in this ETF. Interestingly, communication services has been the worst performing sector of the past 5 years. There&#39;s despondency here, and with despondency comes the potential for outsized returns. For ETF investors, we recommend Vanguard Communication Services ETF (VOX). Here are its top holdings:</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d4c222464e3dc7817645ef7dd9a5499c\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"351\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/>VOX Holdings (Vanguard)</p></body></html>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>QQQ: An Excessive Bust Is Coming</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nQQQ: An Excessive Bust Is Coming\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2022-08-28 07:58 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://seekingalpha.com/article/4537241-qqq-an-excessive-bust-is-coming><strong>Seeking Alpha</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>SummaryQQQ tracks the hottest stocks in the world, American technology and the Nasdaq 100.George Soros coined the boom-bust model, in which he explained that excess on the upside often leads to excess...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4537241-qqq-an-excessive-bust-is-coming\">Source Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"QQQ":"纳指100ETF"},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4537241-qqq-an-excessive-bust-is-coming","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1128541490","content_text":"SummaryQQQ tracks the hottest stocks in the world, American technology and the Nasdaq 100.George Soros coined the boom-bust model, in which he explained that excess on the upside often leads to excess on the downside.Looking at the fundamentals of QQQ, it could get ugly.In the decade ahead, we project returns of 4% per annum.The ThesisAt the end of 2021, the Invesco QQQ ETF, which tracks theNasdaq 100, reached a PE of 39 and a cyclically adjusted PE (CAPE ratio) of 60. Legendary investor George Soros has believed for manyyears that excess on the upside leads to excess on the downside. QQQ could fall much, much further as the excess drains out of its valuation. History has shown that when the CAPE ratio reaches 60, real returns for the following 15 years settle around negative 4% per annum:CAPE Ratio Vs. Real Returns (Lyn Alden)All Aboard The Hype TrainIf there's one thing that's worked over the past decade, it was holding U.S. tech stocks. Thus, the outperformance of QQQ, which has 50% of its holdings in information technology and another 30% or so in communication and consumer tech.QQQ's Sector Allocations (Invesco)Invesco advertises this ETF by pointing out its track record of outperformance and its trading volume:QQQ ETF (Invesco)The problem is, tech stocks outperformed massively before the dot com bubble burst. Following the implosion of 2000, it took more than 15 years for the Nasdaq 100 to recover its losses:QQQ data by YChartsIn fact, the reason QQQ has outperformed over the past 15 years is because tech underperformed from 2000 to 2010, in my opinion. This meant there were huge bargains in the sector as everyone was depressed about tech stocks. So you can see, you don't want to buy what's done well recently, in fact, you want to do just the opposite. We've studied several investors who outperformed the market over multiple decades, from Warren Buffett, to Carl Icahn, to Sir John Templeton, to Howard Marks. They all had one thing in common, they bought when there was blood in the streets. QQQ is concentrated in the hottest sectors of the past 5 years, and that's not where you want to hunt for outsized returns:Sector Performance (Fidelity)The average S&P 500 company survives only20 years, and for tech stocks, that lifespan could be even shorter as these businesses face brutal competition, and the industry is constantly changing. If we look at businesses that survived for more than200 years, we get banks like JPMorgan Chase (JPM), chemical companies like DuPont (DD), and consumer staples companies like Colgate-Palmolive (CL). These are simple and predictable businesses in industries that enjoy a very slow pace of change.It's About To Get UglyQQQ's Top 10 HoldingsQQQ's Top 10 Holdings (Invesco)We've analyzed many of QQQ's top holdings individually, including Apple , Microsoft , Amazon , Tesla , Google (GOOG) (GOOGL), Meta , and Costco . Marked in red above are our expected annual returns for each business, with a 10-year time horizon. Overall, this equates to a 4% expected annual return for QQQ's top holdings. In other words, you could get an inflation adjusted return of 0% per annum holding these stocks.History has shown the market tends to swing from overly optimistic to overly pessimistic. Legendary investor George Soros coined this the boom-bust model. He believed that excessive margin, speculation, and exuberance on the upside creates excessive insolvency, fear, and selling on the downside. In other words, the larger the boom, the larger the bust. So, what do you think comes next for QQQ? If we had to wager, we'd bet on an excessive bust.Risks To The ThesisCrazy things can go on longer than you expect. In 1989, the PE of the Japanese index reached 60x earnings. The Nasdaq 100 is still nowhere near this level. Enthusiasm can always return in the short-run.Also, while Sir John Templeton has cautioned against saying \"this time is different,\" he conceded that 20% of the time it really is different. Technology stocks have defied gravity up to this point. And, holding a diversified group of technology stocks with a 30-year time horizon isn't a terrible idea. We've seen many of these businesses develop enduring moats and compound at a rapid pace for an extended period of time. An asset-light model and rapidly growing industry is generally a good place to be. Technology should be a part of everyone's portfolio, at the right valuation.Our ValuationThe Nasdaq 100 has aPE ratio of 27.2, but its earnings could still be at a cyclical peak, as evidenced by its much higher CAPE ratio. This means QQQ likely has earnings per share around $11.78. Looking at the aggregate of several QQQ businesses we've analyzed, combined with the cheaper, but slower growing businesses that round out the QQQ ETF, we believe EPS will grow at 8% per annum in the decade ahead. This growth should outpace the S&P 500's EPS, but the valuation is more stretched than the S&P.Our 2032 price target for QQQ is $445 per share, implying returns of 4% per annum with dividends reinvested.Growing QQQ's EPS at 8% per annum, we get $25.43 per share in 2032. We've assigned a terminal multiple of 17.5x as we believe growth will slow slightly in the decade that follows. Keep in mind, this is a base-case scenario.The Bottom LineThe risk and reward is unfavorable for QQQ, and some of the exuberance we saw on the upside could reverse on the downside. It's possible you get inflation-adjusted returns of 0% per annum even after holding for 10 years. With such long-duration cash flows, QQQ is very susceptible to an increase in interest rates.What To Do About ItWe're projecting higher returns in communication companies like Meta and Google than other names in this ETF. Interestingly, communication services has been the worst performing sector of the past 5 years. There's despondency here, and with despondency comes the potential for outsized returns. For ETF investors, we recommend Vanguard Communication Services ETF (VOX). Here are its top holdings:VOX Holdings (Vanguard)","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"QQQ":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":3455,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9907049293,"gmtCreate":1660114032913,"gmtModify":1703478082464,"author":{"id":"3574595239855745","authorId":"3574595239855745","name":"Cathief","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3e45013d2ed26f004a85c3c015679222","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3574595239855745","authorIdStr":"3574595239855745"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Woohoo","listText":"Woohoo","text":"Woohoo","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9907049293","repostId":"1181970490","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"1181970490","kind":"news","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"Providing stock market headlines, business news, financials and earnings ","home_visible":1,"media_name":"Tiger Newspress","id":"1079075236","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba"},"pubTimestamp":1660109841,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1181970490?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2022-08-10 13:37","market":"us","language":"en","title":"TSMC Revenue for July Was Approximately NT$186.76 Billion, an Increase of 49.9% YoY","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1181970490","media":"Tiger Newspress","summary":"TSMC today announced its net revenue for July 2022: On a consolidated basis, revenue for July 2022 w","content":"<html><head></head><body><p>TSMC today announced its net revenue for July 2022: On a consolidated basis, revenue for July 2022 was approximately NT$186.76 billion, an increase of 6.2 percent from June 2022 and an increase of 49.9 percent from July 2021. Revenue for January through July 2022 totaled NT$1,211.98 billion, an increase of 41.1 percent compared to the same period in 2021.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ebbeb989490d17626f42011963a56ccc\" tg-width=\"744\" tg-height=\"153\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p></body></html>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>TSMC Revenue for July Was Approximately NT$186.76 Billion, an Increase of 49.9% YoY</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nTSMC Revenue for July Was Approximately NT$186.76 Billion, an Increase of 49.9% YoY\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/1079075236\">\n\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">Tiger Newspress </p>\n<p class=\"h-time\">2022-08-10 13:37</p>\n</div>\n\n</a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<html><head></head><body><p>TSMC today announced its net revenue for July 2022: On a consolidated basis, revenue for July 2022 was approximately NT$186.76 billion, an increase of 6.2 percent from June 2022 and an increase of 49.9 percent from July 2021. Revenue for January through July 2022 totaled NT$1,211.98 billion, an increase of 41.1 percent compared to the same period in 2021.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ebbeb989490d17626f42011963a56ccc\" tg-width=\"744\" tg-height=\"153\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p></body></html>\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"TSM":"台积电"},"source_url":"","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1181970490","content_text":"TSMC today announced its net revenue for July 2022: On a consolidated basis, revenue for July 2022 was approximately NT$186.76 billion, an increase of 6.2 percent from June 2022 and an increase of 49.9 percent from July 2021. Revenue for January through July 2022 totaled NT$1,211.98 billion, an increase of 41.1 percent compared to the same period in 2021.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"TSM":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2845,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9909879365,"gmtCreate":1658855858057,"gmtModify":1676536217962,"author":{"id":"3574595239855745","authorId":"3574595239855745","name":"Cathief","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3e45013d2ed26f004a85c3c015679222","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3574595239855745","authorIdStr":"3574595239855745"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Swinging game","listText":"Swinging game","text":"Swinging game","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":4,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9909879365","repostId":"1195583109","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1195583109","kind":"news","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"Providing stock market headlines, business news, financials and earnings ","home_visible":1,"media_name":"Tiger Newspress","id":"1079075236","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba"},"pubTimestamp":1658846131,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1195583109?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2022-07-26 22:35","market":"us","language":"en","title":"EV Stocks Slid in Morning Trading","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1195583109","media":"Tiger Newspress","summary":"EV stocks slid in morning trading. Tesla, Lucid, Rivian, Nio, Xpeng Motors, Li Auto, Nikola, Faraday","content":"<html><head></head><body><p>EV stocks slid in morning trading. Tesla, Lucid, Rivian, Nio, Xpeng Motors, Li Auto, Nikola, Faraday Future, Tusimple Holdings, Arrival and Fisker fell between 1% and 5%.<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d80674238adf9a301e67ca7111c3df2d\" tg-width=\"300\" tg-height=\"487\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p></body></html>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>EV Stocks Slid in Morning Trading</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nEV Stocks Slid in Morning Trading\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/1079075236\">\n\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">Tiger Newspress </p>\n<p class=\"h-time\">2022-07-26 22:35</p>\n</div>\n\n</a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<html><head></head><body><p>EV stocks slid in morning trading. Tesla, Lucid, Rivian, Nio, Xpeng Motors, Li Auto, Nikola, Faraday Future, Tusimple Holdings, Arrival and Fisker fell between 1% and 5%.<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d80674238adf9a301e67ca7111c3df2d\" tg-width=\"300\" tg-height=\"487\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p></body></html>\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"XPEV":"小鹏汽车","TSLA":"特斯拉","LI":"理想汽车","NIO":"蔚来"},"source_url":"","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1195583109","content_text":"EV stocks slid in morning trading. Tesla, Lucid, Rivian, Nio, Xpeng Motors, Li Auto, Nikola, Faraday Future, Tusimple Holdings, Arrival and Fisker fell between 1% and 5%.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"XPEV":0.9,"TSLA":0.9,"NIO":0.9,"LI":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2404,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9076548080,"gmtCreate":1657878641040,"gmtModify":1676536076335,"author":{"id":"3574595239855745","authorId":"3574595239855745","name":"Cathief","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3e45013d2ed26f004a85c3c015679222","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3574595239855745","authorIdStr":"3574595239855745"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Lol, oh precious toilet paper.","listText":"Lol, oh precious toilet paper.","text":"Lol, oh precious toilet paper.","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":4,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9076548080","repostId":"1143400421","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"1143400421","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1657877203,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1143400421?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2022-07-15 17:26","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Nvidia And Micron Face Toilet Paper Hoarding Moment","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1143400421","media":"Seeking Alpha","summary":"SummaryThe chip business is notoriously cyclical, and you will see leading stocks such as Nvidia and","content":"<html><head></head><body><p><b>Summary</b></p><ul><li>The chip business is notoriously cyclical, and you will see leading stocks such as Nvidia and Micron are archetype examples.</li><li>To paraphrase Ben Graham, perfectly timing the cycle is a practical and emotional impossibility.</li><li>Although having an overall sense of which stage we are in the cycle is not only possible but also sufficient to guide sound investment decisions already.</li><li>The chip shortage has turned into a glut. The historical chip cycles lasted about 3.5 to 4 years, and I foresee the current downturn stage to last into late 2022 or early 2023.</li><li>However, valuation always reacts more hastily and seems already raced to the bottom ahead of fundamentals.</li></ul><p><b>The investment thesis</b></p><p>The chip business is notoriously cyclical, more so than the overall economy at least. And by this time, it is kind of public information that the last chip cycle has already passed its peak. You can see that either from the stock prices (chart 1 below) or the sales (chart 2 below). Chart 1 shows the YTD price decline of the sector&#39;s two leading stocks, NVIDIA (NASDAQ:NVDA) and Micron (NASDAQ:MU). NVDA suffered a total loss of more than 48% YTD and MU more than 36% (which requires a 92% and 56% rally to break even, respectively). In contrast, the overall tech sector (represented by the QQQ fund) suffered a relatively milder correction of 28% loss.</p><p>Chart 2, taken from this Reuters report, shows the cyclicality of the sector more vividly. The report calls the current stage the toilet paper hoarding moment for the chip business, for good ideas. Due to the chip shortage earlier in the year, companies started to hoard chips &#34;just in case&#34; they need them and cannot get them (just like people hoarding toilet paper when COVID first broke out). And quickly the shortage turns into a glut, taking chip companies such as NVDA and MU and also Wall Street by surprise in the same way the toilet paper hoarding surprised Kimberly-Clark (KMB) and Clorox (CLX).</p><p>You can see the cyclical dynamics pretty clearly in the chart. Sales growth (the orange bars) went through almost a perfect sine wave, with about a 3.5 to 4 years cycle. The growth peaked in early 2018 and then again in 2021 September. The growth (or negative growth to be more precise) bottomed for the last time in June 2019. If it follows the same 3.5 to 4 years cycle, then one would expect the next bottom to occur in the second half of 2022 or early 2023.</p><p>In investing, trying to perfectly time the entry at the bottom is a fool&#39;s errand, both practically and emotionally. However, investors can develop a pretty good sense of where the pendulum currently is through study and research, especially similar historical events. And such a general idea is already sufficient to drive good investment returns. It is always better to be approximately right (or directionally right) than precisely wrong.</p><p>In the remainder of this article, I will share my experiences and outlook for the chip cycle with a focus on NVDA and MU. You will see that my view is that the business fundamental cycle has not bottomed yet (again, I expect that to happen in the second half of 2022 or early 2023), but the valuation cycle has gotten there already (valuation always leads fundamentals). And this is the reason we started a position in MU recently. I will also share some thoughts on why I prefer MU over NVDA toward the end.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a4fedf37b7fcc8538bb1b23a701e0d79\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"444\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p>Seeking Alpha</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9929fef87391830d4ba8f993b382902e\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"325\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p>Source: Techinsights Inc and Reuters</p><p><b>Where are we in the cycle?</b></p><p>The Reuters chart above showed the cyclicality of the general chip sector in the past 5 years (which is about one cycle). And the chart below broadens the view a bit to the past 10 years, showing the last two cycles for NVDA and MU. You see the same sine wave behavior. At a deeper level, nothing &#34;new&#34; really happens in investing. Things may take on new names (AI, cryptocurrency, et al), but the fundamental governing laws never change as long as human nature does not change.</p><p>Philosophies aside, we see that the previous chip expansion cycle peaked in 2014 and peaked again toward 2018, resulting in a cycle of about 4 years ago (in the 3.5 to 4 years range). Similarly, the contracting cycle reached its worst in 2016 and again toward 2020, showing the 3.5 to 4 years cyclicality once again.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7fe00777c85fe9898934d093206b5d8a\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"430\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p>Seeking Alpha</p><p>Looking forward, I foresee the next steps will be like the following. Again, I won&#39;t pretend that I can predict the details and specific timing precisely. But I&#39;ve seen the movie and read the script multiple times before both in the chip sector and other sectors. Hence, I am quite confident about the general direction, which has been sufficient to guide my investment decisions (e.g., to stay away from the chip sector no matter how hyped they are during 2021). On the demand side, the market will first have to digest the chips that they have hoarded. On the supply side, MU and NVDA will have to sell their own accumulated inventory first, which will take some time as the demand will be low. You can see the signs from the chart below, which shows that days of inventory standing. MU&#39;s inventory fluctuated in a range between about 80 days to 128 days with an average of 104 days in the past 10 years.</p><p>NVDA&#39;s inventory fluctuated in a range between about 67 days to 112 days with an average of 86 days in the past 10 years. Both their inventories reached a 10-year peak around 2020 and 2021, which to me is a clear sign of overexpansion and overconfidence (that their products will sell as fast as they can make them). Then in a wicked way, the COVID and global supply chain disruptions actually helped them and provided data to support their overconfidence (at least temporarily). The demand side turned from a &#34;just in time&#34; mode to a &#34;just in case&#34; mode by hoarding chips and driving down their inventory.</p><p>Now the hoarding has come to an end, and their inventory is standing at a relatively high level (above historical average). So the next logical step is either to reduce the price (there are signs of this already as detailed in the risk section) and also scale back production if price reduction itself is not sufficient. In late June, MU Chief Business OfficerSumit Sadanaalready mentioned that MU would reduce production.</p><p>When both price and production have been reduced sufficiently, then the contraction cycle will end and the expansion cycle restarts. Inventory is an important metric that I suggest investors monitor closely in the next few months, and it&#39;s something I will pay special attention to during their upcoming earnings reports.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/bd9955555e7d5ccab1a54f6c4c5ef6c1\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"448\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p>Seeking Alpha</p><p><b>The forever forward-looking nature of P/E</b></p><p>Investors are always forward-looking (like what I am doing here). And the current valuation always tries to price in future developments. Again, just like what I&#39;m doing here - since I am predicting the contraction cycle to end in early 2023, the price I am willing to pay today is based on the condition that I predict for early 2023, not the current conditions.</p><p>For this reason, valuation always leads business fundamentals as you can clearly see from the following charts. Even though the fundamentals have not bottomed yet (actually the chip sector is still reporting positive growth if you recall from the early charts), their P/E ratios already reached a multi-year bottom.</p><p>To be more specific, the FW P/E for MU has fluctuated between about 6.3x and 16x with an average of 10.7x. And you see can that its current FW P/E of 6.9x is already close to the multi-year bottom. The picture is very similar for NVDA. Its FW P/E has fluctuated between about 26.7x and 77x with an average of 44.4x. And its current FW P/E of 28x is already close to the multi-year bottom.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9f8e19309f4e4ed181c688887e19e840\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"449\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p>Seeking Alpha</p><p>The following chart probably illustrates the dynamics more clearly here. The chart shows the YoY quarterly revenue growth of MU overlaid with its P/E ratio during the last cycle. As you can see, in its last contraction cycle, its P/E bottomed in early 2019, about 10 months ahead of its fundamentals (its contraction did not end till late 2019). Then in its last expansion cycle, its P/E peaked in early 2021, leading its fundamentals by about five months.</p><p>Now back to my projection that the current contraction cycle will reach its worst in the next 6 to 12 months, if history is of any guidance, the valuation has already contracted enough by this time.</p><p>Let me emphasize once again that I&#39;m not pretending that I have a crystal ball and know all the specifics. A friend of mine, specializing in technical analysis, once told me that A) if you can predict EITHER one of the two things, the target price OR the target timing, you can already become rich, and B) if anyone tells you that he can predict BOTH, then he&#39;s simply lying. The same wisdom applies here. Prices of both MU and NVDA could certainly fall more from here and/or their contraction cycle last longer. But as mentioned before, an overall sense of the stage is good enough to generate market-beating performance already (i.e., staying away from NVDA when it has already been expanding for 3 years in a row and P/E climbed to 70+).</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b005c32bad6fdc51ca3585ed1ec619aa\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"446\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p>Seeking Alpha</p><p><b>Expected return</b></p><p>The reason that I hold MU but not NVDA is twofold: expected returns as shown in the roadmap below and also risks (as detailed in the next section). The mechanics of the roadmap has been detailed our earlier article. The underpinning idea is that:</p><blockquote><ul><li><i>The long-term ROI for a business owner is simply determined by two things: A) the price paid to buy the business and B) the quality of the business. More specifically, part A is determined by the owner&#39;s earning yield (&#34;OEY&#34;) when we purchased the business. And that is why PE is the first dimension in our roadmap. Part B is determined by the quality of the business and that is why ROCE (return on capital employed), the most important metric for profitability, is the second dimension in our roadmap.</i></li><li><i>Now, the long-term growth rate is governed by ROCE and the Reinvestment Rate. These are the two most important growth engines, and they mutually enhance each other. High ROCE means every $1 reinvested can lead to a higher growth rate, which leads to more future profits and more flexible capital allocation to fuel further growth, and so on. So to summarize:</i></li><li><i>Longer-Term ROI = valuation + quality = OEY + Growth Rate = OEY + ROCE*Reinvestment Rate</i></li></ul></blockquote><p>Under this framework, we like the projected long-term return of MU better. Its profitability measured by ROCE is undoubtedly lower than NVDA (about 30% compared to NVDA&#39;s 60% to 70%), but the total return is higher when valuation and quality are holistically considered. And note both NVDA and MU enjoy far superb profitability over the general economy (whose ROCE is around 20%), and both offer favorable odds to outperform the market under their current conditions.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2cf17d24302513d7fa2a521c2efaa2ba\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"348\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p>Author</p><p><b>Final thoughts and risks</b></p><p>The silicon shortage has turned into a glut. And it will take a while (my estimate is about 6 to 12 months) for the glut to clean up. In the meantime, chip producers such as MU and NVDA will have to reduce prices and/or reduction production. MU Chief Business Officer Sumit Sadana already mentioned a plan to reduce production. And analysts have already noted pricing forgraphics cards fell by about 20% in the June quarter from the March quarter due to rising inventories.</p><p>The historical chip cycles lasted about 3.5 to 4 years. As such, I foresee the current downturn stage to last into late 2022 or early 2023. Although valuation is forever forward-looking and always reacts more hastily. Historically, valuation has led businesses fundamentals by about 5 to 10 months and seems already raced to the bottom for both MU and NVDA in this current downturn cycle.</p><p>Finally, other risks. History rhymes, but no two cycles are identical. This round is caught in a perfect storm, and interactions among high inflation, COVID, and war in Ukraine could prolong the downturn cycle for the general chip sector. Specific to MU and NVDA, NVDA still features an evaluated valuation risk as aforementioned. A 28x PE is not only higher than MU by comparison but also in absolute terms, especially amid recession uncertainties.</p><p>Besides the valuation consideration, another reason I like MU more than NVDA is the correlation of high-end GPUs to crypto mining, which is completely random and unpredictable to me (as detailed in our earlier article). This Barron&#39;s report seems to have made the same observation and attributed the recent large price fall in graphics cards to:</p><blockquote>Rising inventories, lower cryptocurrency prices, and concerns about Ethereum&#39;s upcoming migration from a &#34;proof-of-work&#34; model to &#34;proof-of-stake,&#34; which will negate the need for graphics cards for mining.</blockquote></body></html>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Nvidia And Micron Face Toilet Paper Hoarding Moment</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nNvidia And Micron Face Toilet Paper Hoarding Moment\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2022-07-15 17:26 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://seekingalpha.com/article/4523485-nvidia-micron-face-toilet-paper-hoarding-moment?source=content_type%3Areact%7Cfirst_level_url%3Ahome%7Csection%3Aportfolio%7Csection_asset%3Aheadlines%7Cline%3A3><strong>Seeking Alpha</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>SummaryThe chip business is notoriously cyclical, and you will see leading stocks such as Nvidia and Micron are archetype examples.To paraphrase Ben Graham, perfectly timing the cycle is a practical ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4523485-nvidia-micron-face-toilet-paper-hoarding-moment?source=content_type%3Areact%7Cfirst_level_url%3Ahome%7Csection%3Aportfolio%7Csection_asset%3Aheadlines%7Cline%3A3\">Source Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"MU":"美光科技","NVDA":"英伟达"},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4523485-nvidia-micron-face-toilet-paper-hoarding-moment?source=content_type%3Areact%7Cfirst_level_url%3Ahome%7Csection%3Aportfolio%7Csection_asset%3Aheadlines%7Cline%3A3","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1143400421","content_text":"SummaryThe chip business is notoriously cyclical, and you will see leading stocks such as Nvidia and Micron are archetype examples.To paraphrase Ben Graham, perfectly timing the cycle is a practical and emotional impossibility.Although having an overall sense of which stage we are in the cycle is not only possible but also sufficient to guide sound investment decisions already.The chip shortage has turned into a glut. The historical chip cycles lasted about 3.5 to 4 years, and I foresee the current downturn stage to last into late 2022 or early 2023.However, valuation always reacts more hastily and seems already raced to the bottom ahead of fundamentals.The investment thesisThe chip business is notoriously cyclical, more so than the overall economy at least. And by this time, it is kind of public information that the last chip cycle has already passed its peak. You can see that either from the stock prices (chart 1 below) or the sales (chart 2 below). Chart 1 shows the YTD price decline of the sector's two leading stocks, NVIDIA (NASDAQ:NVDA) and Micron (NASDAQ:MU). NVDA suffered a total loss of more than 48% YTD and MU more than 36% (which requires a 92% and 56% rally to break even, respectively). In contrast, the overall tech sector (represented by the QQQ fund) suffered a relatively milder correction of 28% loss.Chart 2, taken from this Reuters report, shows the cyclicality of the sector more vividly. The report calls the current stage the toilet paper hoarding moment for the chip business, for good ideas. Due to the chip shortage earlier in the year, companies started to hoard chips \"just in case\" they need them and cannot get them (just like people hoarding toilet paper when COVID first broke out). And quickly the shortage turns into a glut, taking chip companies such as NVDA and MU and also Wall Street by surprise in the same way the toilet paper hoarding surprised Kimberly-Clark (KMB) and Clorox (CLX).You can see the cyclical dynamics pretty clearly in the chart. Sales growth (the orange bars) went through almost a perfect sine wave, with about a 3.5 to 4 years cycle. The growth peaked in early 2018 and then again in 2021 September. The growth (or negative growth to be more precise) bottomed for the last time in June 2019. If it follows the same 3.5 to 4 years cycle, then one would expect the next bottom to occur in the second half of 2022 or early 2023.In investing, trying to perfectly time the entry at the bottom is a fool's errand, both practically and emotionally. However, investors can develop a pretty good sense of where the pendulum currently is through study and research, especially similar historical events. And such a general idea is already sufficient to drive good investment returns. It is always better to be approximately right (or directionally right) than precisely wrong.In the remainder of this article, I will share my experiences and outlook for the chip cycle with a focus on NVDA and MU. You will see that my view is that the business fundamental cycle has not bottomed yet (again, I expect that to happen in the second half of 2022 or early 2023), but the valuation cycle has gotten there already (valuation always leads fundamentals). And this is the reason we started a position in MU recently. I will also share some thoughts on why I prefer MU over NVDA toward the end.Seeking AlphaSource: Techinsights Inc and ReutersWhere are we in the cycle?The Reuters chart above showed the cyclicality of the general chip sector in the past 5 years (which is about one cycle). And the chart below broadens the view a bit to the past 10 years, showing the last two cycles for NVDA and MU. You see the same sine wave behavior. At a deeper level, nothing \"new\" really happens in investing. Things may take on new names (AI, cryptocurrency, et al), but the fundamental governing laws never change as long as human nature does not change.Philosophies aside, we see that the previous chip expansion cycle peaked in 2014 and peaked again toward 2018, resulting in a cycle of about 4 years ago (in the 3.5 to 4 years range). Similarly, the contracting cycle reached its worst in 2016 and again toward 2020, showing the 3.5 to 4 years cyclicality once again.Seeking AlphaLooking forward, I foresee the next steps will be like the following. Again, I won't pretend that I can predict the details and specific timing precisely. But I've seen the movie and read the script multiple times before both in the chip sector and other sectors. Hence, I am quite confident about the general direction, which has been sufficient to guide my investment decisions (e.g., to stay away from the chip sector no matter how hyped they are during 2021). On the demand side, the market will first have to digest the chips that they have hoarded. On the supply side, MU and NVDA will have to sell their own accumulated inventory first, which will take some time as the demand will be low. You can see the signs from the chart below, which shows that days of inventory standing. MU's inventory fluctuated in a range between about 80 days to 128 days with an average of 104 days in the past 10 years.NVDA's inventory fluctuated in a range between about 67 days to 112 days with an average of 86 days in the past 10 years. Both their inventories reached a 10-year peak around 2020 and 2021, which to me is a clear sign of overexpansion and overconfidence (that their products will sell as fast as they can make them). Then in a wicked way, the COVID and global supply chain disruptions actually helped them and provided data to support their overconfidence (at least temporarily). The demand side turned from a \"just in time\" mode to a \"just in case\" mode by hoarding chips and driving down their inventory.Now the hoarding has come to an end, and their inventory is standing at a relatively high level (above historical average). So the next logical step is either to reduce the price (there are signs of this already as detailed in the risk section) and also scale back production if price reduction itself is not sufficient. In late June, MU Chief Business OfficerSumit Sadanaalready mentioned that MU would reduce production.When both price and production have been reduced sufficiently, then the contraction cycle will end and the expansion cycle restarts. Inventory is an important metric that I suggest investors monitor closely in the next few months, and it's something I will pay special attention to during their upcoming earnings reports.Seeking AlphaThe forever forward-looking nature of P/EInvestors are always forward-looking (like what I am doing here). And the current valuation always tries to price in future developments. Again, just like what I'm doing here - since I am predicting the contraction cycle to end in early 2023, the price I am willing to pay today is based on the condition that I predict for early 2023, not the current conditions.For this reason, valuation always leads business fundamentals as you can clearly see from the following charts. Even though the fundamentals have not bottomed yet (actually the chip sector is still reporting positive growth if you recall from the early charts), their P/E ratios already reached a multi-year bottom.To be more specific, the FW P/E for MU has fluctuated between about 6.3x and 16x with an average of 10.7x. And you see can that its current FW P/E of 6.9x is already close to the multi-year bottom. The picture is very similar for NVDA. Its FW P/E has fluctuated between about 26.7x and 77x with an average of 44.4x. And its current FW P/E of 28x is already close to the multi-year bottom.Seeking AlphaThe following chart probably illustrates the dynamics more clearly here. The chart shows the YoY quarterly revenue growth of MU overlaid with its P/E ratio during the last cycle. As you can see, in its last contraction cycle, its P/E bottomed in early 2019, about 10 months ahead of its fundamentals (its contraction did not end till late 2019). Then in its last expansion cycle, its P/E peaked in early 2021, leading its fundamentals by about five months.Now back to my projection that the current contraction cycle will reach its worst in the next 6 to 12 months, if history is of any guidance, the valuation has already contracted enough by this time.Let me emphasize once again that I'm not pretending that I have a crystal ball and know all the specifics. A friend of mine, specializing in technical analysis, once told me that A) if you can predict EITHER one of the two things, the target price OR the target timing, you can already become rich, and B) if anyone tells you that he can predict BOTH, then he's simply lying. The same wisdom applies here. Prices of both MU and NVDA could certainly fall more from here and/or their contraction cycle last longer. But as mentioned before, an overall sense of the stage is good enough to generate market-beating performance already (i.e., staying away from NVDA when it has already been expanding for 3 years in a row and P/E climbed to 70+).Seeking AlphaExpected returnThe reason that I hold MU but not NVDA is twofold: expected returns as shown in the roadmap below and also risks (as detailed in the next section). The mechanics of the roadmap has been detailed our earlier article. The underpinning idea is that:The long-term ROI for a business owner is simply determined by two things: A) the price paid to buy the business and B) the quality of the business. More specifically, part A is determined by the owner's earning yield (\"OEY\") when we purchased the business. And that is why PE is the first dimension in our roadmap. Part B is determined by the quality of the business and that is why ROCE (return on capital employed), the most important metric for profitability, is the second dimension in our roadmap.Now, the long-term growth rate is governed by ROCE and the Reinvestment Rate. These are the two most important growth engines, and they mutually enhance each other. High ROCE means every $1 reinvested can lead to a higher growth rate, which leads to more future profits and more flexible capital allocation to fuel further growth, and so on. So to summarize:Longer-Term ROI = valuation + quality = OEY + Growth Rate = OEY + ROCE*Reinvestment RateUnder this framework, we like the projected long-term return of MU better. Its profitability measured by ROCE is undoubtedly lower than NVDA (about 30% compared to NVDA's 60% to 70%), but the total return is higher when valuation and quality are holistically considered. And note both NVDA and MU enjoy far superb profitability over the general economy (whose ROCE is around 20%), and both offer favorable odds to outperform the market under their current conditions.AuthorFinal thoughts and risksThe silicon shortage has turned into a glut. And it will take a while (my estimate is about 6 to 12 months) for the glut to clean up. In the meantime, chip producers such as MU and NVDA will have to reduce prices and/or reduction production. MU Chief Business Officer Sumit Sadana already mentioned a plan to reduce production. And analysts have already noted pricing forgraphics cards fell by about 20% in the June quarter from the March quarter due to rising inventories.The historical chip cycles lasted about 3.5 to 4 years. As such, I foresee the current downturn stage to last into late 2022 or early 2023. Although valuation is forever forward-looking and always reacts more hastily. Historically, valuation has led businesses fundamentals by about 5 to 10 months and seems already raced to the bottom for both MU and NVDA in this current downturn cycle.Finally, other risks. History rhymes, but no two cycles are identical. This round is caught in a perfect storm, and interactions among high inflation, COVID, and war in Ukraine could prolong the downturn cycle for the general chip sector. Specific to MU and NVDA, NVDA still features an evaluated valuation risk as aforementioned. A 28x PE is not only higher than MU by comparison but also in absolute terms, especially amid recession uncertainties.Besides the valuation consideration, another reason I like MU more than NVDA is the correlation of high-end GPUs to crypto mining, which is completely random and unpredictable to me (as detailed in our earlier article). This Barron's report seems to have made the same observation and attributed the recent large price fall in graphics cards to:Rising inventories, lower cryptocurrency prices, and concerns about Ethereum's upcoming migration from a \"proof-of-work\" model to \"proof-of-stake,\" which will negate the need for graphics cards for mining.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"NVDA":0.9,"MU":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":3086,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9078410858,"gmtCreate":1657727807374,"gmtModify":1676536052268,"author":{"id":"3574595239855745","authorId":"3574595239855745","name":"Cathief","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3e45013d2ed26f004a85c3c015679222","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3574595239855745","authorIdStr":"3574595239855745"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Oh","listText":"Oh","text":"Oh","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9078410858","repostId":"2251156755","repostType":2,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":3363,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9070897046,"gmtCreate":1657037142985,"gmtModify":1676535936822,"author":{"id":"3574595239855745","authorId":"3574595239855745","name":"Cathief","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3e45013d2ed26f004a85c3c015679222","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3574595239855745","authorIdStr":"3574595239855745"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"May want to dollar ave if possible, but note forex rates","listText":"May want to dollar ave if possible, but note forex rates","text":"May want to dollar ave if possible, but note forex rates","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9070897046","repostId":"1141060036","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1141060036","kind":"news","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"Providing stock market headlines, business news, financials and earnings ","home_visible":1,"media_name":"Tiger Newspress","id":"1079075236","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba"},"pubTimestamp":1657030258,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1141060036?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2022-07-05 22:10","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Semiconductor Stocks Slipped in Morning Trading","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1141060036","media":"Tiger Newspress","summary":"Semiconductor stocks slipped in morning trading.Nvidia, TSMC, ASML, Micron, AMD, Intel, Qualcomm, Br","content":"<html><head></head><body><p>Semiconductor stocks slipped in morning trading.</p><p>Nvidia, TSMC, ASML, Micron, <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AMD\">AMD</a>, <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/INTC\">Intel</a>, <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/QCOM\">Qualcomm</a>, <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AVGO\">Broadcom</a>, and STM fell between 1% and 6%.<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/95bb72db58ca2781dc528f0b92d22eab\" tg-width=\"479\" tg-height=\"771\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p></body></html>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Semiconductor Stocks Slipped in Morning Trading</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; 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height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nSemiconductor Stocks Slipped in Morning Trading\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/1079075236\">\n\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">Tiger Newspress </p>\n<p class=\"h-time\">2022-07-05 22:10</p>\n</div>\n\n</a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<html><head></head><body><p>Semiconductor stocks slipped in morning trading.</p><p>Nvidia, TSMC, ASML, Micron, <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AMD\">AMD</a>, <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/INTC\">Intel</a>, <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/QCOM\">Qualcomm</a>, <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AVGO\">Broadcom</a>, and STM fell between 1% and 6%.<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/95bb72db58ca2781dc528f0b92d22eab\" tg-width=\"479\" tg-height=\"771\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p></body></html>\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"BK4561":"索罗斯持仓","03165":"华夏欧优股对冲","BK4554":"元宇宙及AR概念","BK4532":"文艺复兴科技持仓","BK4527":"明星科技股","ASML":"阿斯麦","BK4551":"寇图资本持仓","INTC":"英特尔","BK4141":"半导体产品","TSM":"台积电","BK4503":"景林资产持仓","BK4529":"IDC概念","AMD":"美国超微公司","AVGO":"博通","BK4515":"5G概念","QCOM":"高通","BK4579":"人工智能","BK4550":"红杉资本持仓","NVDA":"英伟达","AMD.AU":"Arrow Minerals Ltd","GFS":"GLOBALFOUNDRIES Inc."},"source_url":"","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1141060036","content_text":"Semiconductor stocks slipped in morning trading.Nvidia, TSMC, ASML, Micron, AMD, Intel, Qualcomm, Broadcom, and STM fell between 1% and 6%.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"AMD":0.9,"03165":0.9,"TSM":0.9,"AVGO":0.9,"QCOM":0.9,"GFS":0.9,"AMD.AU":0.9,"INTC":0.9,"ASML":0.9,"NVDA":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":3567,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9070018921,"gmtCreate":1656983398263,"gmtModify":1676535926650,"author":{"id":"3574595239855745","authorId":"3574595239855745","name":"Cathief","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3e45013d2ed26f004a85c3c015679222","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3574595239855745","authorIdStr":"3574595239855745"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Consumers goods gonna be more and more expensive.&nbsp;","listText":"Consumers goods gonna be more and more expensive.&nbsp;","text":"Consumers goods gonna be more and more expensive.","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9070018921","repostId":"1193635455","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"1193635455","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1656978013,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1193635455?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2022-07-05 07:40","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Vital TSMC Supplier Warns of Chip Material Price Hikes into 2023","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1193635455","media":"Bloomberg","summary":"Japanese chemicals supplierShowa Denko K.K.expects to further raise prices and cut back unprofitable","content":"<div>\n<p>Japanese chemicals supplierShowa Denko K.K.expects to further raise prices and cut back unprofitable product lines as it grapples with a barrage of economic challenges confronting the $550 billion ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2022-07-04/vital-tsmc-supplier-warns-of-chip-material-price-hikes-into-2023\">Source Link</a>\n\n</div>\n","source":"lsy1584095487587","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Vital TSMC Supplier Warns of Chip Material Price Hikes into 2023</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; 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overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nVital TSMC Supplier Warns of Chip Material Price Hikes into 2023\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2022-07-05 07:40 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2022-07-04/vital-tsmc-supplier-warns-of-chip-material-price-hikes-into-2023><strong>Bloomberg</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>Japanese chemicals supplierShowa Denko K.K.expects to further raise prices and cut back unprofitable product lines as it grapples with a barrage of economic challenges confronting the $550 billion ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2022-07-04/vital-tsmc-supplier-warns-of-chip-material-price-hikes-into-2023\">Source Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"TSM":"台积电"},"source_url":"https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2022-07-04/vital-tsmc-supplier-warns-of-chip-material-price-hikes-into-2023","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1193635455","content_text":"Japanese chemicals supplierShowa Denko K.K.expects to further raise prices and cut back unprofitable product lines as it grapples with a barrage of economic challenges confronting the $550 billion semiconductor industry.That’s on top of at least a dozen hikes already this year, reflecting Covid-19 supply snarls, surging energy costs from the Ukraine war and the yen’s dramatic weakening, Chief Financial Officer Hideki Somemiya told Bloomberg News in an interview. The situation is unlikely to significantly improve until at least 2023, he added.Tokyo-based Showa Denko, which supplies essential chip fabrication materials to the likes ofTaiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Co.andInfineon Technologies AG, has been forced to drastically increase the cost it passes on to customers, Somemiya said. Because it’s a key supplier of the chemicals used early in the production chain by chipmakers and other manufacturers likeToyota Motor Corp., its price hikes could potentially squeeze margins or pressure customers to follow suit.“A big theme this year common to all the players in the materials industry is how much cost burden we’d be able to convince customers to share with us,” Somemiya said. “The current market moves require us to ask twice the amount we had previously calculated.”Showa Denko is far from alone in raising prices, as other component makers and materials suppliers have been making similar moves to cope with the tough market,Toyo Securitiesanalyst Hideki Yasuda said. Consumers of durable goods like electronics won’t be spared higher price tags further down the road, he added. Chipmakers like TSMC andSamsung Electronics Co.have notified their own customers they intend toraise prices, Bloomberg News has reported.Samsung in Talks to Increase Prices of Chip Manufacturing by Up to 20%Somemiya’s company has started terminating the sale of certain commodity products and contracts with customers where it doesn’t see the potential to carry on business profitably. The company, whose share price has fallen 31% over the past 12 months, will spend the rest of this year sorting out which areas to retreat from, he said.In addition to rising prices of raw materials and natural resources, Showa Denko’s Somemiya said the weakened yen poses another challenge. TheBank of Japanhas grown increasingly isolated in its commitment to an ultra-easy monetary policy, pushing the yen to its lowest level against the US dollar in 24 years.“The current yen moves are not desirable for us at all because the weak yen is further pushing up the cost of raw materials,” Somemiya said. “Measures to deal with the yen that we as a company can undertake are very limited.”Somemiya, a former banker atJPMorgan Chase & Co., moved fromSony Group Corp.last year to take the CFO’s position at Showa Denko and serve as Chief Executive Officer Hidehito Takahashi’s right-hand man in overhauling the company. At that time, Somemiya criticized the chemicals supplier for being naive in negotiating prices and leaving profit on the table.Read more:Shakeup at Showa Denko Bets on Chipmakers’ Next Design ChallengeEmployees have since become more assertive in their negotiations, in part because they have no other option -- a positive change that the market turmoil might have brought.“There’s nothing positive about the current rising material costs, but employees, who were used to simply accepting customer demands to cut prices, have become stronger in arguing that appropriate pricing will be best for us and customers over the long term,” Somemiya 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feel like scolding people.... 😒","listText":"I feel like scolding people.... 😒","text":"I feel like scolding people.... 😒","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9087854473","repostId":"2230264101","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1454,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9087854639,"gmtCreate":1650989909936,"gmtModify":1676534829226,"author":{"id":"3574595239855745","authorId":"3574595239855745","name":"Cathief","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3e45013d2ed26f004a85c3c015679222","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3574595239855745","authorIdStr":"3574595239855745"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Every other day is tumbling news....","listText":"Every other day is tumbling news....","text":"Every other day is tumbling news....","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":4,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9087854639","repostId":"1147776332","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1147776332","kind":"news","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"Providing stock market headlines, business news, financials and earnings ","home_visible":1,"media_name":"Tiger Newspress","id":"1079075236","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba"},"pubTimestamp":1650985704,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1147776332?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2022-04-26 23:08","market":"us","language":"en","title":"U.S. Stocks Tumbled with Nasdaq Composite Falling 3%","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1147776332","media":"Tiger Newspress","summary":"U.S. stocks continued to fall in early trading on Tuesday, with the Nasdaq Composite falling more th","content":"<html><head></head><body><p>U.S. stocks continued to fall in early trading on Tuesday, with the Nasdaq Composite falling more than 3%, while Apple, Microsoft, Amazon, Alphabet, meta Platforms and Netflix all fell more than 2%.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3716b6648a30b6d01a00a07ffad4fec1\" tg-width=\"411\" tg-height=\"352\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p></body></html>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>U.S. Stocks Tumbled with Nasdaq Composite Falling 3%</title>\n<style 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}\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nU.S. Stocks Tumbled with Nasdaq Composite Falling 3%\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/1079075236\">\n\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">Tiger Newspress </p>\n<p class=\"h-time\">2022-04-26 23:08</p>\n</div>\n\n</a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<html><head></head><body><p>U.S. stocks continued to fall in early trading on Tuesday, with the Nasdaq Composite falling more than 3%, while Apple, Microsoft, Amazon, Alphabet, meta Platforms and Netflix all fell more than 2%.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3716b6648a30b6d01a00a07ffad4fec1\" tg-width=\"411\" tg-height=\"352\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p></body></html>\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{".SPX":"S&P 500 Index","AAPL":"苹果",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite",".DJI":"道琼斯"},"source_url":"","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1147776332","content_text":"U.S. stocks continued to fall in early trading on Tuesday, with the Nasdaq Composite falling more than 3%, while Apple, Microsoft, Amazon, Alphabet, meta Platforms and Netflix all fell more than 2%.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{".IXIC":0.9,".SPX":0.9,".DJI":0.9,"AAPL":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2337,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9087855639,"gmtCreate":1650989828801,"gmtModify":1676534829203,"author":{"id":"3574595239855745","authorId":"3574595239855745","name":"Cathief","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3e45013d2ed26f004a85c3c015679222","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3574595239855745","authorIdStr":"3574595239855745"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Seriously...","listText":"Seriously...","text":"Seriously...","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9087855639","repostId":"2230510690","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"2230510690","kind":"highlight","pubTimestamp":1650977251,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/2230510690?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2022-04-26 20:47","market":"us","language":"en","title":"3 Top Stocks to Buy During a Sell-Off","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2230510690","media":"Motley Fool","summary":"These stocks have fallen sharply this year but offer compelling long-term prospects.","content":"<div>\n<p>Year to date, the S&P 500 has fallen by more than 11% as stock traders weigh multiple concerns, including potential slowing economies in the U.S. and elsewhere, elevated gas prices, and rising ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://www.fool.com/investing/2022/04/26/3-top-stocks-to-buy-during-a-sell-off/\">Source Link</a>\n\n</div>\n","source":"fool_stock","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>3 Top Stocks to Buy During a Sell-Off</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n3 Top Stocks to Buy During a Sell-Off\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2022-04-26 20:47 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://www.fool.com/investing/2022/04/26/3-top-stocks-to-buy-during-a-sell-off/><strong>Motley Fool</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>Year to date, the S&P 500 has fallen by more than 11% as stock traders weigh multiple concerns, including potential slowing economies in the U.S. and elsewhere, elevated gas prices, and rising ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://www.fool.com/investing/2022/04/26/3-top-stocks-to-buy-during-a-sell-off/\">Source Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"BK4527":"明星科技股","BK4501":"段永平概念","BK4553":"喜马拉雅资本持仓","BK4571":"数字音乐概念","BK4534":"瑞士信贷持仓","BK4576":"AR","AAPL":"苹果","BK4503":"景林资产持仓","BK4533":"AQR资本管理(全球第二大对冲基金)","BK4575":"芯片概念","BK4566":"资本集团","LOW":"劳氏","BK4505":"高瓴资本持仓","BK4535":"淡马锡持仓","BK4515":"5G概念","BK4538":"云计算","BK4554":"元宇宙及AR概念","BK4559":"巴菲特持仓","BK4579":"人工智能","BK4550":"红杉资本持仓","BK4532":"文艺复兴科技持仓","BK4507":"流媒体概念","BK4548":"巴美列捷福持仓","BK4170":"电脑硬件、储存设备及电脑周边","BK4574":"无人驾驶","BK4551":"寇图资本持仓","BK4573":"虚拟现实","BK4561":"索罗斯持仓","BK4524":"宅经济概念","BK4581":"高盛持仓","BK4512":"苹果概念"},"source_url":"https://www.fool.com/investing/2022/04/26/3-top-stocks-to-buy-during-a-sell-off/","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2230510690","content_text":"Year to date, the S&P 500 has fallen by more than 11% as stock traders weigh multiple concerns, including potential slowing economies in the U.S. and elsewhere, elevated gas prices, and rising interest rates needed to tame elevated inflation. The down market is creating opportunities in some sectors as good companies are being dragged down along with stocks that deserve to be trading lower.That's the case with three companies we will discuss in this article which have seen their stock prices drop by 9% to 25% since the start of 2022. Let's take a closer look at these stocks to understand why now might just be an opportune time to buy.Image source: Getty Images.1. AppleApple is one of the companies caught up in the broader tech stock sell off, with its stock down by almost 10% so far this year. The stock has also been affected by reports of supply chain issues, but this should prove temporary. After all, people still clamor for Apple's products.In its fiscal 2022 first quarter (ended Dec. 25, 2021), revenue grew by 11.2% to $123.9 billion. Due to chip shortages and manufacturing issues, this growth rate was lower than in previous quarters, including 28.8% year-over-year growth reported in the previous quarter. Although it's troubling to lose sales, these issues have nothing to do with slowing demand. In fact, demand was so strong that Apple couldn't meet it.Meanwhile, Apple regularly updates its iPhone, coming out with a version 13 lineup last year, and consumers rushed out to buy it. In its latest fiscal year, which ended on Sept. 25, 2021, iPhone sales rose by 39.3% to $192 billion. And Apple has an exciting future with new products, including a potentially self-driving car, coming down the pike. We will find out more about its performance when Apple reports Q2 earnings on Thursday, April 28.2. AmazonAmazon's share price has dropped by 13.7% so far in 2022. While there have been concerns raised about its near-term retail performance, it will undoubtedly rebound as the company continues to focus on value and fast delivery.In 2021, sales rose by 21.7% to $469.8 billion. But growth slowed later in the year, with a top-line increase of 9.4% in the fourth quarter. Management expects 4.5% to 9.5% sales growth in the first quarter, excluding foreign exchange translations. It anticipates operating income, not counting an accounting change, to fall by 38% to $5.5 billion at the midpoint of management's guidance.Like other retailers, Amazon continues to confront supply chain issues and higher costs. These issues should prove to be temporary. Management has also offset some of the elevated expenses by raising the price of its very popular Prime subscription. Subscribers will be asked this year to start paying $139 a year, a $20 boost in the annual cost. The higher price will help to offset the cost of added content Amazon gained with its acquisition of MGM Studios.Amazon has become far more than an online marketplace. Its Amazon Web Services (AWS) has a dominant 32% share of the cloud-computing market. As companies clamor for data, this has become a fast-growing, high-margin business. Last year, AWS' sales grew by 37.1% to $62.2 billion, driving operating income 37% higher to $18.5 billion. Its 29.8% margin dwarfs the North American and international divisions' typical single-digit operating margin.Aside from AWS, Amazon also generates an impressive amount of sales from advertising. In the fourth quarter, ad revenue grew by 33% year over year to $9.7 billion.Amazon will report fiscal 2022 first-quarter earnings on April 28.3. Lowe'sLowe's stock is off to a rough start in 2022, down nearly 24%. Investors appear to be concerned that the red-hot housing market could cool as interest rates increase, which could affect Lowe's sales. But long-term investors should view this as an opportunity.In fiscal 2021 (which ended Jan. 28), same-store sales (comps) increased by 6.9%, and operating margin expanded by 1.8 percentage points to 12.6%. For Fiscal 2022, management said it expects flattish comps, although it anticipates operating margin to expand to the 12.8% to 13% range.That's not too disappointing considering fiscal 2021 was a banner year. But demand doesn't fall off a cliff just because the housing market slows down, and Lowe's results will undoubtedly rebound when the cycle turns. For instance, during the Great Recession that ran from 2007 to 2009, comps fell by between 5% and 7%. However, the following year, sales rebounded with comps increasing by 1.3%. Lowe's will next report earnings on May 17.Meanwhile, Lowe's investors can collect the reliable and ever-increasing dividends the company generates, even if results temporarily falter. Lowe's is a Dividend King, raising annual dividend payments for 59 straight years. That includes some tough economic periods. It seems like a good bet that the board of directors will see fit to increase dividends again this year. Lowe's stock has a 1.6% dividend yield.Investor takeawayWhile blindly buying certain stocks merely because they're down isn't a wise strategy, the stock for Apple, Amazon, and Lowe's each offer compelling long-term prospects. Their issues will prove a temporary bump in the road, making their recent price drops a good buying opportunity.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"AAPL":0.9,"LOW":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1422,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9085557146,"gmtCreate":1650737095010,"gmtModify":1676534784163,"author":{"id":"3574595239855745","authorId":"3574595239855745","name":"Cathief","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3e45013d2ed26f004a85c3c015679222","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3574595239855745","authorIdStr":"3574595239855745"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Now whatever Wood buys.... seems to tank. Holy sh**","listText":"Now whatever Wood buys.... seems to tank. Holy sh**","text":"Now whatever Wood buys.... seems to tank. Holy sh**","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9085557146","repostId":"1157179523","repostType":2,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1445,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9085557395,"gmtCreate":1650736984566,"gmtModify":1676534784140,"author":{"id":"3574595239855745","authorId":"3574595239855745","name":"Cathief","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3e45013d2ed26f004a85c3c015679222","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3574595239855745","authorIdStr":"3574595239855745"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Well, can the chips stocks hike up too! Geez.","listText":"Well, can the chips stocks hike up too! Geez.","text":"Well, can the chips stocks hike up too! Geez.","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9085557395","repostId":"2229599011","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"2229599011","kind":"highlight","pubTimestamp":1650691800,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/2229599011?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2022-04-23 13:30","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Will Nvidia Be a Trillion-Dollar Stock by 2025?","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2229599011","media":"Motley Fool","summary":"The chipmaker nearly joined the twelve-zero club last year, but it could be awhile before it gets back there.","content":"<div>\n<p>Nvidia's stock closed at an all-time high of $333.76 on Nov. 29, 2021, which gave the chipmaker a market cap of $834 billion. At the time, Nvidia seemed destined to become a trillion-dollar company....</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://www.fool.com/investing/2022/04/22/will-nvidia-be-a-trillion-dollar-stock-by-2025/\">Source Link</a>\n\n</div>\n","source":"fool_stock","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Will Nvidia Be a Trillion-Dollar Stock by 2025?</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nWill Nvidia Be a Trillion-Dollar Stock by 2025?\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2022-04-23 13:30 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://www.fool.com/investing/2022/04/22/will-nvidia-be-a-trillion-dollar-stock-by-2025/><strong>Motley Fool</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>Nvidia's stock closed at an all-time high of $333.76 on Nov. 29, 2021, which gave the chipmaker a market cap of $834 billion. At the time, Nvidia seemed destined to become a trillion-dollar company....</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://www.fool.com/investing/2022/04/22/will-nvidia-be-a-trillion-dollar-stock-by-2025/\">Source Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"BK4567":"ESG概念","BK4534":"瑞士信贷持仓","BK4141":"半导体产品","BK4548":"巴美列捷福持仓","BK4554":"元宇宙及AR概念","BK4550":"红杉资本持仓","NVDA":"英伟达","BK4503":"景林资产持仓","BK4581":"高盛持仓","BK4532":"文艺复兴科技持仓","BK4533":"AQR资本管理(全球第二大对冲基金)","BK4543":"AI","BK4529":"IDC概念","BK4551":"寇图资本持仓","BK4527":"明星科技股","BK4549":"软银资本持仓","BK4579":"人工智能"},"source_url":"https://www.fool.com/investing/2022/04/22/will-nvidia-be-a-trillion-dollar-stock-by-2025/","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2229599011","content_text":"Nvidia's stock closed at an all-time high of $333.76 on Nov. 29, 2021, which gave the chipmaker a market cap of $834 billion. At the time, Nvidia seemed destined to become a trillion-dollar company.But after hitting its all-time high, Nvidia's stock shed over a third of its value and its market cap dropped to less than $550 billion. The bulls fled amid concerns about a post-COVID-lockdown slowdown in PC sales, while rising interest rates exacerbated that pain by sparking a sell-off in higher-growth stocks.Can Nvidia regain its momentum and finally join the twelve-zero club by 2025? Let's examine its upcoming catalysts and challenges to find out.Image source: Nvidia.Nvidia could face a cyclical slowdownNvidia's stock hit an all-time high last year as its gaming and data center GPU business generated dazzling growth throughout the pandemic.In the 2022 fiscal year, which ended this January, Nvidia's revenue surged 61% to $26.91 billion as its adjusted earnings per share (EPS) grew 78%. Its adjusted operating margin jumped 640 basis points to 47.2%. It attributed most of that growth to its robust sales of gaming and data center GPUs.But over the next three fiscal years, analysts expect Nvidia's revenue growth to decelerate as that upgrade cycle cools off. On the bright side, they expect its adjusted operating margin to consistently rise as it benefits from improved scale and pricing power in the GPU market.MetricFY 2023 EstimateFY 2024 EstimateFY 2025 EstimateRevenue Growth29%17%12%Adjusted operating margin48.3%49.4%51%Adjusted EPS growth 15%34%11%Data source: S&P Global Market Intelligence.If those expectations are met, Nvidia would generate $45.64 billion in revenue with an adjusted EPS of $6.59 in fiscal 2025.Nvidia currently trades at 16 times its revenue and about 50 times its EPS estimate for fiscal 2023. If Nvidia still trades at those forward valuations at the end of fiscal 2024 and hits the estimates, it would have a market cap of about $730 billion.However, those valuations would still be too rich for a company that's growing its revenue and earnings in the low teens. Therefore, I think Nvidia's market cap might stay between $500 billion and $700 billion over the next three years as it grapples with a cyclical slowdown in the GPU market.The near-term headwindsInvestors should take analysts' estimates with a grain of salt, but Nvidia stock likely needs to take a breather after its big growth spurt over the past few years.In HP's (NYSE: HPQ) latest earnings report, it said its sales of consumer PCs fell 1% year-over-year as it faced tough comparisons to the boost it got from remote work and gaming upgrades during the pandemic. That slowdown doesn't bode well for Nvidia and other PC chipmakers.Meanwhile, data center operators might buy fewer Nvidia GPUs for AI tasks as the usage of cloud-based services decelerates in a post-lockdown market. Waning interest in cryptocurrencies, many of which have lost value this year as investors have rotated out of riskier assets, will also curb sales of its gaming GPUs and dedicated mining chips.To make matters worse, Intel (NASDAQ: INTC) plans to disrupt Nvidia and AMD's (NASDAQ: AMD) duopoly in discrete GPUs with its own chips. These new GPUs, which Intel is bundling with its own CPUs, could cause more headaches for Nvidia and AMD as the broader gaming market slows down.The long-term tailwindsThose challenges seem daunting, but Nvidia has weathered plenty of cyclical downturns and competitive threats since its public debut in 1999. It also remains the dominant discrete GPU maker with an 81% market share, according to JPR's fourth-quarter numbers, compared to AMD's 19% share.The gaming and data center markets should also keep expanding over the next few years. The gaming PC market could expand at a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 14.9% between 2021 and 2027, according to Report Ocean, while Research and Markets expects the data center accelerator market to grow at a CAGR of 36.7% between 2021 and 2026.If Nvidia continues to dominate both of those growing markets, its cyclical slowdown could end a lot sooner than expected. Its oft-overlooked automotive chip business -- which generated just 2% of revenue in its latest quarter -- could also gain more traction as the automotive sector gradually recovers and develops new connected and autonomous vehicles.Look beyond Nvidia's market capNvidia probably won't become a trillion-dollar company by 2025, and investors who were spoiled by its 380% rally over the past three years might be a bit disappointed. However, it's arguably better for Nvidia's stock to cool off now and reset the market's expectations instead of flying off the rails with runaway valuations.Nvidia's stock might generate much lower returns over the next three years, but investors shouldn't abandon the chipmaker yet. Long-term secular tailwinds could still propel its stock to new all-time highs.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"NVDA":1}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1500,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9085557913,"gmtCreate":1650736941796,"gmtModify":1676534784132,"author":{"id":"3574595239855745","authorId":"3574595239855745","name":"Cathief","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3e45013d2ed26f004a85c3c015679222","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3574595239855745","authorIdStr":"3574595239855745"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"It has been a tumbling ride. Like Alice in wonderland...Makes me wonder!&nbsp;","listText":"It has been a tumbling ride. Like Alice in wonderland...Makes me wonder!&nbsp;","text":"It has been a tumbling ride. Like Alice in wonderland...Makes me wonder!","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9085557913","repostId":"2229716170","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"2229716170","kind":"highlight","pubTimestamp":1650666223,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/2229716170?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2022-04-23 06:23","market":"us","language":"en","title":"3 Things Investors Should Do Right Now as Stocks Tumble (Again)","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2229716170","media":"MarketWatch","summary":"Financial experts share their top tips for investors amid the market downturnU.S. stock markets are ","content":"<html><head></head><body><p>Financial experts share their top tips for investors amid the market downturn</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2aff69419fa8c12d8aee92ab095e142b\" tg-width=\"700\" tg-height=\"483\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/><span>U.S. stock markets are sharply down on Friday.</span></p><p>It&#39;s Freaky Friday on Wall Street for investors.</p><p>The latest tumble in stocks is, in many ways, a replay of what investors have seen with the Dow Jones Industrial Average , the S&amp;P 500 and Nasdaq Composite  in recent months -- another major disruption to global stock markets.</p><p>U.S. stock markets are sharply down on Friday. The latest stock-market turmoil has come as markets have attempted to recalibrate amid policy changes at the Federal Reserve, record-high levels of inflation.</p><p>Investors are spooked by hawkish comments on interest rates by Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell a day earlier, in addition to a fresh batch of corporate earnings that largely disappointed.</p><p>Powell told an International Monetary Fund panel on Thursday that tempering inflation is &#34;absolutely essential.&#34; On the prospect of the Fed&#39;s next rate hike, he added, &#34;I would say 50 basis points will be on the table for the May meeting.&#34;</p><blockquote>It’s clear that the recent spate of market weakness has unsettled many investors, with many pulling money out of the stock market and buying gold.”</blockquote><p>It&#39;s clear that the recent spate of market weakness has unsettled many investors, with many pulling money out of the stock market and buying gold. Among the most popular searches on Google in recent weeks have been questions like &#34;Is the market going to crash?&#34;</p><p>Financial experts advise staying cool. Ukraine war has also rattled global markets. As Pepperstone&#39;s head of research, Chris Weston, recently wrote, &#34;Trading in a headline-driven market is not for everyone, it requires a dedication to being in front of the screens, an understanding of what is noise and what is signal and an ability to keep emotions in check.&#34;</p><p>&#34;Volatility and corrections are a normal part of investing in the markets,&#34; added Greg McBride, chief financial analyst at Bankrate.com.</p><p>&#34;With interest rates poised to rise this year and the Fed tightening what has been very loose accommodation for the economy and markets, the returns won&#39;t come as easy as they have in the past 18 months or so,&#34; he added.</p><p>MarketWatch polled financial experts to see what advice they had for Americans nervously checking the status of the IRAs and Robinhood accounts. Here are their top tips on what to do in this latest downturn:</p><p><b>Take a lesson from March 2020</b></p><p>The  most important advice, according to McBride, is literally to do nothing, and don&#39;t panic. And here&#39;s far from the only financial expert to suggest that.</p><p>&#34;Typically in situations where the stock market is in a slump or where it&#39;s behaving erratically, the best course of action is often to just leave your money where it&#39;s at,&#34; said Jacob Channel, senior economic analyst at LendingTree.</p><p>Never sell in a loss. For people who are invested in index funds or stable companies, in all likelihood, their investments will rebound.</p><blockquote>‘The best course of action is often to just leave your money where it’s at.’”</blockquote><blockquote>— Jacob Channel, senior economic analyst at LendingTree</blockquote><p>Don&#39;t believe him? Recent history should offer some comfort. The markets fell sharply at the start of the COVID-19 pandemic amid fears of a prolonged recession. They didn&#39;t stay low for long, though.</p><p>&#34;Following that sell-off, the market rebounded spectacularly and the S&amp;P 500 is currently sitting at a near record high -- even when taking into account its recent decline,&#34; Channel said.</p><p><b>Review your investment plan</b></p><p>For most investors, the money they have in the market -- either through retirement accounts or individual investments -- is intended for long-term purposes. So short-term fluctuations shouldn&#39;t change one&#39;s strategy a whole lot.</p><p>Still, financial experts said this is a good time to review things to make sure your money is working for you. Multiple financial planners suggested rebalancing your portfolio.</p><p>&#34;A market downturn is a great opportunity to look at your investments to see if they still reflect your target allocation,&#34; said David Haas, president of Cereus Financial Advisors in New Jersey.</p><p>It&#39;s natural to see your portfolio allocation drift when stocks are falling and bonds are rising. Getting back on target is key. Doing this means you&#39;ll be selling what&#39;s high and buying what&#39;s low, said Mark Ziety, executive director of WisMed Financial, an advisory firm based in Wisconsin.</p><p>Similarly, now is a good time to review the diversity of one&#39;s portfolio. Are you too geared toward growth funds? Do you have exposure to emerging markets?</p><p>Now might also be the time to do a Roth conversion, if that was something you were interested in, Ziety said. &#34;When markets are down, more shares can be converted from pretax to tax free for the same tax cost,&#34; he noted.</p><p><b>Put your cash to work</b></p><p>A common aphorism among financial whizzes is to buy the dip. In other words, think of the stock market being discounted right now.</p><p>&#34;Depending on your age and time horizon, this may be a time to buy into the market while it is on sale,&#34; said Charles B. Sachs, director of planning and chief compliance officer at Kaufman Rossin Wealth, a national accounting and investment advisory firm.</p><p>On the upside, there is no sign of panic selling activity, despite the stock market&#39;s biggest drop off in seven weeks on Friday, according to the Arms Index that tracks market internals.</p><p>If you have extra money that you can invest, do not sweat the timing too much.</p><p>&#34;You likely won&#39;t catch the market at its best rock-bottom price, so if you want to invest during a downturn, waiting for the &#39;perfect moment&#39; may not be the best strategy,&#34; said Alana Benson, investing spokesperson at personal-finance website NerdWallet.</p></body></html>","source":"lsy1603348471595","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>3 Things Investors Should Do Right Now as Stocks Tumble (Again)</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n3 Things Investors Should Do Right Now as Stocks Tumble (Again)\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2022-04-23 06:23 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://www.marketwatch.com/story/waiting-for-the-perfect-moment-may-not-be-the-best-strategy-3-things-americans-can-do-right-now-as-stock-markets-plunge-11643047617?mod=home-page><strong>MarketWatch</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>Financial experts share their top tips for investors amid the market downturnU.S. stock markets are sharply down on Friday.It's Freaky Friday on Wall Street for investors.The latest tumble in stocks ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://www.marketwatch.com/story/waiting-for-the-perfect-moment-may-not-be-the-best-strategy-3-things-americans-can-do-right-now-as-stock-markets-plunge-11643047617?mod=home-page\">Source Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"BK4539":"次新股","BK4547":"WSB热门概念",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite","BK4127":"投资银行业与经纪业",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index",".DJI":"道琼斯","BK4166":"消费信贷"},"source_url":"https://www.marketwatch.com/story/waiting-for-the-perfect-moment-may-not-be-the-best-strategy-3-things-americans-can-do-right-now-as-stock-markets-plunge-11643047617?mod=home-page","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2229716170","content_text":"Financial experts share their top tips for investors amid the market downturnU.S. stock markets are sharply down on Friday.It's Freaky Friday on Wall Street for investors.The latest tumble in stocks is, in many ways, a replay of what investors have seen with the Dow Jones Industrial Average , the S&P 500 and Nasdaq Composite  in recent months -- another major disruption to global stock markets.U.S. stock markets are sharply down on Friday. The latest stock-market turmoil has come as markets have attempted to recalibrate amid policy changes at the Federal Reserve, record-high levels of inflation.Investors are spooked by hawkish comments on interest rates by Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell a day earlier, in addition to a fresh batch of corporate earnings that largely disappointed.Powell told an International Monetary Fund panel on Thursday that tempering inflation is \"absolutely essential.\" On the prospect of the Fed's next rate hike, he added, \"I would say 50 basis points will be on the table for the May meeting.\"It’s clear that the recent spate of market weakness has unsettled many investors, with many pulling money out of the stock market and buying gold.”It's clear that the recent spate of market weakness has unsettled many investors, with many pulling money out of the stock market and buying gold. Among the most popular searches on Google in recent weeks have been questions like \"Is the market going to crash?\"Financial experts advise staying cool. Ukraine war has also rattled global markets. As Pepperstone's head of research, Chris Weston, recently wrote, \"Trading in a headline-driven market is not for everyone, it requires a dedication to being in front of the screens, an understanding of what is noise and what is signal and an ability to keep emotions in check.\"\"Volatility and corrections are a normal part of investing in the markets,\" added Greg McBride, chief financial analyst at Bankrate.com.\"With interest rates poised to rise this year and the Fed tightening what has been very loose accommodation for the economy and markets, the returns won't come as easy as they have in the past 18 months or so,\" he added.MarketWatch polled financial experts to see what advice they had for Americans nervously checking the status of the IRAs and Robinhood accounts. Here are their top tips on what to do in this latest downturn:Take a lesson from March 2020The  most important advice, according to McBride, is literally to do nothing, and don't panic. And here's far from the only financial expert to suggest that.\"Typically in situations where the stock market is in a slump or where it's behaving erratically, the best course of action is often to just leave your money where it's at,\" said Jacob Channel, senior economic analyst at LendingTree.Never sell in a loss. For people who are invested in index funds or stable companies, in all likelihood, their investments will rebound.‘The best course of action is often to just leave your money where it’s at.’”— Jacob Channel, senior economic analyst at LendingTreeDon't believe him? Recent history should offer some comfort. The markets fell sharply at the start of the COVID-19 pandemic amid fears of a prolonged recession. They didn't stay low for long, though.\"Following that sell-off, the market rebounded spectacularly and the S&P 500 is currently sitting at a near record high -- even when taking into account its recent decline,\" Channel said.Review your investment planFor most investors, the money they have in the market -- either through retirement accounts or individual investments -- is intended for long-term purposes. So short-term fluctuations shouldn't change one's strategy a whole lot.Still, financial experts said this is a good time to review things to make sure your money is working for you. Multiple financial planners suggested rebalancing your portfolio.\"A market downturn is a great opportunity to look at your investments to see if they still reflect your target allocation,\" said David Haas, president of Cereus Financial Advisors in New Jersey.It's natural to see your portfolio allocation drift when stocks are falling and bonds are rising. Getting back on target is key. Doing this means you'll be selling what's high and buying what's low, said Mark Ziety, executive director of WisMed Financial, an advisory firm based in Wisconsin.Similarly, now is a good time to review the diversity of one's portfolio. Are you too geared toward growth funds? Do you have exposure to emerging markets?Now might also be the time to do a Roth conversion, if that was something you were interested in, Ziety said. \"When markets are down, more shares can be converted from pretax to tax free for the same tax cost,\" he noted.Put your cash to workA common aphorism among financial whizzes is to buy the dip. In other words, think of the stock market being discounted right now.\"Depending on your age and time horizon, this may be a time to buy into the market while it is on sale,\" said Charles B. Sachs, director of planning and chief compliance officer at Kaufman Rossin Wealth, a national accounting and investment advisory firm.On the upside, there is no sign of panic selling activity, despite the stock market's biggest drop off in seven weeks on Friday, according to the Arms Index that tracks market internals.If you have extra money that you can invest, do not sweat the timing too much.\"You likely won't catch the market at its best rock-bottom price, so if you want to invest during a downturn, waiting for the 'perfect moment' may not be the best strategy,\" said Alana Benson, investing spokesperson at personal-finance website NerdWallet.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{".DJI":0.9,".IXIC":0.9,".SPX":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1169,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9085554712,"gmtCreate":1650736880983,"gmtModify":1676534784132,"author":{"id":"3574595239855745","authorId":"3574595239855745","name":"Cathief","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3e45013d2ed26f004a85c3c015679222","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3574595239855745","authorIdStr":"3574595239855745"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Dbl confirm? 😂","listText":"Dbl confirm? 😂","text":"Dbl confirm? 😂","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9085554712","repostId":"2229168533","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"2229168533","kind":"highlight","pubTimestamp":1650672182,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/2229168533?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2022-04-23 08:03","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Got $1,000? 5 Buffett Stocks to Buy and Hold Forever","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2229168533","media":"Motley Fool","summary":"These industry leaders have Buffett's stamp of approval and are on track for more big wins.","content":"<div>\n<p>If you owned a $1,000 stake in Berkshire Hathaway when Warren Buffett assumed control of the company back in May of 1965, that position would be worth more than $27.5 million today. The investment ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://www.fool.com/investing/2022/04/22/got-1000-5-buffett-stocks-to-buy-and-hold-forever/\">Source Link</a>\n\n</div>\n","source":"fool_stock","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Got $1,000? 5 Buffett Stocks to Buy and Hold Forever</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nGot $1,000? 5 Buffett Stocks to Buy and Hold Forever\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2022-04-23 08:03 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://www.fool.com/investing/2022/04/22/got-1000-5-buffett-stocks-to-buy-and-hold-forever/><strong>Motley Fool</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>If you owned a $1,000 stake in Berkshire Hathaway when Warren Buffett assumed control of the company back in May of 1965, that position would be worth more than $27.5 million today. The investment ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://www.fool.com/investing/2022/04/22/got-1000-5-buffett-stocks-to-buy-and-hold-forever/\">Source Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"BK4553":"喜马拉雅资本持仓","BK4501":"段永平概念","VZ":"Verizon Comms","BK4116":"互联网服务与基础架构","BK4571":"数字音乐概念","BRK.A":"伯克希尔","BK4534":"瑞士信贷持仓","SNOW":"Snowflake","BK4576":"AR","BK4503":"景林资产持仓","BK4533":"AQR资本管理(全球第二大对冲基金)","ORCL":"甲骨文","BK4122":"互联网与直销零售","BK4575":"芯片概念","BK4176":"多领域控股","BK4566":"资本集团","BK4528":"SaaS概念","BK4516":"特朗普概念","BK4535":"淡马锡持仓","BK4505":"高瓴资本持仓","BK4515":"5G概念","BK4538":"云计算","BK4504":"桥水持仓","BK4559":"巴菲特持仓","BK4579":"人工智能","BRK.B":"伯克希尔B","BK4550":"红杉资本持仓","BK4548":"巴美列捷福持仓","BK4507":"流媒体概念","BK4170":"电脑硬件、储存设备及电脑周边","AAPL":"苹果","BK4574":"无人驾驶","BK4512":"苹果概念","BK4207":"综合性银行","BK4551":"寇图资本持仓","BK4573":"虚拟现实","BK4561":"索罗斯持仓","BK4524":"宅经济概念","AMZN":"亚马逊","BK4532":"文艺复兴科技持仓","BK4581":"高盛持仓","BK4554":"元宇宙及AR概念","BAC":"美国银行","BK4527":"明星科技股"},"source_url":"https://www.fool.com/investing/2022/04/22/got-1000-5-buffett-stocks-to-buy-and-hold-forever/","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2229168533","content_text":"If you owned a $1,000 stake in Berkshire Hathaway when Warren Buffett assumed control of the company back in May of 1965, that position would be worth more than $27.5 million today. The investment conglomerate now has a market capitalization of roughly $771 billion and stands as the one of the world's largest companies, and The Oracle of Omaha's ability to identify promising businesses worth holding long term has played a big role in getting there.While Berkshire's massive market cap suggests its most explosive days of growth are likely in the past, an incredible performance and top-tier management and analyst teams suggest it can still pay to look to the company for investing inspiration. Read on for a look at five top stocks in the Berkshire Hathaway portfolio that are worth buying today and holding for the long haul.1. AmazonEven with current holdings worth roughly $1.8 billion, Amazon ranks as just the 21st-largest overall stock holding in Berkshire's portfolio. The investment conglomerate first purchased the e-commerce and cloud computing giant's stock in 2019, and you can be sure that Buffett regrets not investing in the multi-industry innovator sooner. The famously successful investor went so far as to describe himself as \"an idiot\" for not buying shares at an earlier stage.With gains of roughly 21,680% over the last 20 years, it's not hard to imagine why The Oracle of Omaha is frustrated about taking some time to see the light on Amazon, but the company will likely continue serving up more strong performance over the long term. Amazon's e-commerce and cloud businesses still have incredible runways for expansion, and these pillars give it the flexibility to pursue wins in other emerging technology and service trends.2. SnowflakeWhile the Oracle of Omaha is best known as a value investing guru, that doesn't mean that he and the Berkshire team don't sometimes see great value in highly growth-dependent stocks. Snowflake provides a data-warehousing platform that can be used to combine and analyze information from Amazon, Alphabet, and Microsoft's respective cloud platforms, and surging demand for its services is translating to rapid business expansion.Image source: Snowflake.Based on its forward price-to-sales multiple of approximately 30.5, it could be argued that Snowflake is the most \"expensive\" stock in the Berkshire portfolio. On the other hand, it has a very favorable growth outlook, and I wouldn't be surprised at all if it winds up being one of the investment conglomerate's best-performing stocks over the next decade.3. VerizonWith the largest wireless network in the U.S., highly rated service, and strong customer loyalty, Verizon stands to be one of the biggest beneficiaries in the next-generation network technologies in the telecom industry. 5G is paving the way for upload and download speeds that absolutely trounce what's possible on 4G LTE in even the most ideal circumstances, and this big leap forward in network technology will make a wide range of new technologies and services possible.Verizon's business is already a free-cash-flow-generating machine, and that allows it to return substantial cash to shareholders in the form of dividends. The company's payout currently yields roughly 4.7%, and the stock looks cheap trading at roughly 10 times this year's expected earnings.4. Bank of AmericaBerkshire Hathaway's holdings in Bank of America stock are currently worth roughly $45 billion and account for more than 13% of its overall stock portfolio. The banking giant is Berkshire's second-largest overall stock holding and its biggest investment in the financials industry by a wide margin.There will always be a need for banking and financial services, and Bank of America's incredible scale gives it an edge in the space. Bank of America also pays a dividend that currently yields roughly 2.1%. Even better, the company has been raising its payout at a rapid clip over the last decade, and there's a good chance that investors can look forward to more payout growth.BAC Dividend data by YCharts5. AppleBuffett has said that Apple is probably the best business he knows, and a quick look at the Berkshire Hathaway portfolio makes it clear he has a high level of conviction on that call. The tech company stands as the single largest stock holding in Berkshire's portfolio, representing roughly 46% of its total stock holdings.Apple has the world's most valuable brand in the consumer electronics space, and that advantage has allowed the company to generate far more profits from mobile, computer, and wearable hardware sales than its competitors. The tech giant has also built a powerful software and services ecosystem that's helping to power new growth stages for the company.With a market capitalization of roughly $2.73 trillion, Apple stands as the most valuable company in the world and could have a harder time delivering relative growth going forward. However, the company's core hardware and software businesses continue to look very strong, and it has the potential to score massive wins in augmented reality, smart cars, and other potentially revolutionary trends.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"AAPL":0.88,"VZ":0.9,"BRK.B":0.9,"AMZN":0.9,"SNOW":0.9,"BAC":0.9,"BRK.A":0.9,"ORCL":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1332,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9085554578,"gmtCreate":1650736849880,"gmtModify":1676534784132,"author":{"id":"3574595239855745","authorId":"3574595239855745","name":"Cathief","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3e45013d2ed26f004a85c3c015679222","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3574595239855745","authorIdStr":"3574595239855745"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Better buck up!","listText":"Better buck up!","text":"Better buck up!","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":5,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9085554578","repostId":"2229678171","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1616,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9085329568,"gmtCreate":1650648184271,"gmtModify":1676534770603,"author":{"id":"3574595239855745","authorId":"3574595239855745","name":"Cathief","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3e45013d2ed26f004a85c3c015679222","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3574595239855745","authorIdStr":"3574595239855745"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Wtf","listText":"Wtf","text":"Wtf","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9085329568","repostId":"1143525235","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1143525235","kind":"news","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"Providing stock market headlines, business news, financials and earnings ","home_visible":1,"media_name":"Tiger Newspress","id":"1079075236","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba"},"pubTimestamp":1650640703,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1143525235?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2022-04-22 23:18","market":"us","language":"en","title":"U.S. Stocks Fell Sharply in Morning Trading,Dow Jones Lost Nearly 500 Points While S&P 500 Slid Over 1%","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1143525235","media":"Tiger Newspress","summary":"U.S. stocks fell sharply in morning trading,Dow Jones lost nearly 500 points while S&P 500, Nasdaq S","content":"<html><head></head><body><p>U.S. stocks fell sharply in morning trading,Dow Jones lost nearly 500 points while S&amp;P 500, Nasdaq Slid 1.22% and 0.71% separately.<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c7b21ede3b84dc72ab9bd42c061a49fa\" tg-width=\"515\" tg-height=\"125\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p></body></html>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>U.S. Stocks Fell Sharply in Morning Trading,Dow Jones Lost Nearly 500 Points While S&P 500 Slid Over 1%</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nU.S. Stocks Fell Sharply in Morning Trading,Dow Jones Lost Nearly 500 Points While S&P 500 Slid Over 1%\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/1079075236\">\n\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">Tiger Newspress </p>\n<p class=\"h-time\">2022-04-22 23:18</p>\n</div>\n\n</a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<html><head></head><body><p>U.S. stocks fell sharply in morning trading,Dow Jones lost nearly 500 points while S&amp;P 500, Nasdaq Slid 1.22% and 0.71% separately.<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c7b21ede3b84dc72ab9bd42c061a49fa\" tg-width=\"515\" tg-height=\"125\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p></body></html>\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite",".DJI":"道琼斯",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index"},"source_url":"","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1143525235","content_text":"U.S. stocks fell sharply in morning trading,Dow Jones lost nearly 500 points while S&P 500, Nasdaq Slid 1.22% and 0.71% separately.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{".SPX":0.9,".DJI":0.9,".IXIC":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1261,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0}],"hots":[{"id":9087854639,"gmtCreate":1650989909936,"gmtModify":1676534829226,"author":{"id":"3574595239855745","authorId":"3574595239855745","name":"Cathief","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3e45013d2ed26f004a85c3c015679222","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3574595239855745","idStr":"3574595239855745"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Every other day is tumbling news....","listText":"Every other day is tumbling news....","text":"Every other day is tumbling news....","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":4,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9087854639","repostId":"1147776332","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1147776332","kind":"news","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"Providing stock market headlines, business news, financials and earnings ","home_visible":1,"media_name":"Tiger Newspress","id":"1079075236","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba"},"pubTimestamp":1650985704,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1147776332?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2022-04-26 23:08","market":"us","language":"en","title":"U.S. Stocks Tumbled with Nasdaq Composite Falling 3%","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1147776332","media":"Tiger Newspress","summary":"U.S. stocks continued to fall in early trading on Tuesday, with the Nasdaq Composite falling more th","content":"<html><head></head><body><p>U.S. stocks continued to fall in early trading on Tuesday, with the Nasdaq Composite falling more than 3%, while Apple, Microsoft, Amazon, Alphabet, meta Platforms and Netflix all fell more than 2%.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3716b6648a30b6d01a00a07ffad4fec1\" tg-width=\"411\" tg-height=\"352\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p></body></html>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>U.S. Stocks Tumbled with Nasdaq Composite Falling 3%</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; 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charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Vital TSMC Supplier Warns of Chip Material Price Hikes into 2023</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; 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overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nVital TSMC Supplier Warns of Chip Material Price Hikes into 2023\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2022-07-05 07:40 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2022-07-04/vital-tsmc-supplier-warns-of-chip-material-price-hikes-into-2023><strong>Bloomberg</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>Japanese chemicals supplierShowa Denko K.K.expects to further raise prices and cut back unprofitable product lines as it grapples with a barrage of economic challenges confronting the $550 billion ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2022-07-04/vital-tsmc-supplier-warns-of-chip-material-price-hikes-into-2023\">Source Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"TSM":"台积电"},"source_url":"https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2022-07-04/vital-tsmc-supplier-warns-of-chip-material-price-hikes-into-2023","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1193635455","content_text":"Japanese chemicals supplierShowa Denko K.K.expects to further raise prices and cut back unprofitable product lines as it grapples with a barrage of economic challenges confronting the $550 billion semiconductor industry.That’s on top of at least a dozen hikes already this year, reflecting Covid-19 supply snarls, surging energy costs from the Ukraine war and the yen’s dramatic weakening, Chief Financial Officer Hideki Somemiya told Bloomberg News in an interview. The situation is unlikely to significantly improve until at least 2023, he added.Tokyo-based Showa Denko, which supplies essential chip fabrication materials to the likes ofTaiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Co.andInfineon Technologies AG, has been forced to drastically increase the cost it passes on to customers, Somemiya said. Because it’s a key supplier of the chemicals used early in the production chain by chipmakers and other manufacturers likeToyota Motor Corp., its price hikes could potentially squeeze margins or pressure customers to follow suit.“A big theme this year common to all the players in the materials industry is how much cost burden we’d be able to convince customers to share with us,” Somemiya said. “The current market moves require us to ask twice the amount we had previously calculated.”Showa Denko is far from alone in raising prices, as other component makers and materials suppliers have been making similar moves to cope with the tough market,Toyo Securitiesanalyst Hideki Yasuda said. Consumers of durable goods like electronics won’t be spared higher price tags further down the road, he added. Chipmakers like TSMC andSamsung Electronics Co.have notified their own customers they intend toraise prices, Bloomberg News has reported.Samsung in Talks to Increase Prices of Chip Manufacturing by Up to 20%Somemiya’s company has started terminating the sale of certain commodity products and contracts with customers where it doesn’t see the potential to carry on business profitably. The company, whose share price has fallen 31% over the past 12 months, will spend the rest of this year sorting out which areas to retreat from, he said.In addition to rising prices of raw materials and natural resources, Showa Denko’s Somemiya said the weakened yen poses another challenge. TheBank of Japanhas grown increasingly isolated in its commitment to an ultra-easy monetary policy, pushing the yen to its lowest level against the US dollar in 24 years.“The current yen moves are not desirable for us at all because the weak yen is further pushing up the cost of raw materials,” Somemiya said. “Measures to deal with the yen that we as a company can undertake are very limited.”Somemiya, a former banker atJPMorgan Chase & Co., moved fromSony Group Corp.last year to take the CFO’s position at Showa Denko and serve as Chief Executive Officer Hidehito Takahashi’s right-hand man in overhauling the company. At that time, Somemiya criticized the chemicals supplier for being naive in negotiating prices and leaving profit on the table.Read more:Shakeup at Showa Denko Bets on Chipmakers’ Next Design ChallengeEmployees have since become more assertive in their negotiations, in part because they have no other option -- a positive change that the market turmoil might have brought.“There’s nothing positive about the current rising material costs, but employees, who were used to simply accepting customer demands to cut prices, have become stronger in arguing that appropriate pricing will be best for us and customers over the long term,” Somemiya said.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"TSM":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":3506,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":156152652,"gmtCreate":1625204911476,"gmtModify":1703738331196,"author":{"id":"3574595239855745","authorId":"3574595239855745","name":"Cathief","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3e45013d2ed26f004a85c3c015679222","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3574595239855745","idStr":"3574595239855745"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Waiting for TSMC to hike!","listText":"Waiting for TSMC to hike!","text":"Waiting for TSMC to hike!","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":5,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/156152652","repostId":"2148873174","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"2148873174","kind":"highlight","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"Reuters.com brings you the latest news from around the world, covering breaking news in markets, business, politics, entertainment and technology","home_visible":1,"media_name":"Reuters","id":"1036604489","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/443ce19704621c837795676028cec868"},"pubTimestamp":1625197444,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/2148873174?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2021-07-02 11:44","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Apple, Intel become first to adopt TSMC's latest chip tech - Nikkei","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2148873174","media":"Reuters","summary":"July 2 (Reuters) - Apple Inc and Intel Corp will be the first adopters of Taiwan Semiconductor Manuf","content":"<p>July 2 (Reuters) - Apple Inc&nbsp;and Intel Corp&nbsp;will be the first adopters of Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Co's next-generation chip production technology ahead of its deployment, possibly next year, Nikkei Asia reported on Friday.</p>\n<p>Apple and Intel are testing their chip designs with TSMC's 3-nanometer production technology, the report added, citing several sources briefed on the matter. Commercial output of such chips is expected to start in the second half of next year, Nikkei Asia said.</p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Apple, Intel become first to adopt TSMC's latest chip tech - Nikkei</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nApple, Intel become first to adopt TSMC's latest chip tech - Nikkei\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/1036604489\">\n\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/443ce19704621c837795676028cec868);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">Reuters </p>\n<p class=\"h-time\">2021-07-02 11:44</p>\n</div>\n\n</a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>July 2 (Reuters) - Apple Inc&nbsp;and Intel Corp&nbsp;will be the first adopters of Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Co's next-generation chip production technology ahead of its deployment, possibly next year, Nikkei Asia reported on Friday.</p>\n<p>Apple and Intel are testing their chip designs with TSMC's 3-nanometer production technology, the report added, citing several sources briefed on the matter. Commercial output of such chips is expected to start in the second half of next year, Nikkei Asia said.</p>\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"03086":"华夏纳指","09086":"华夏纳指-U","AAPL":"苹果","INTC":"英特尔"},"is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2148873174","content_text":"July 2 (Reuters) - Apple Inc and Intel Corp will be the first adopters of Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Co's next-generation chip production technology ahead of its deployment, possibly next year, Nikkei Asia reported on Friday.\nApple and Intel are testing their chip designs with TSMC's 3-nanometer production technology, the report added, citing several sources briefed on the matter. Commercial output of such chips is expected to start in the second half of next year, Nikkei Asia said.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"INTC":0.9,"03086":0.9,"AAPL":0.9,"09086":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":611,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":358993453,"gmtCreate":1616647312672,"gmtModify":1704796886283,"author":{"id":"3574595239855745","authorId":"3574595239855745","name":"Cathief","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3e45013d2ed26f004a85c3c015679222","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3574595239855745","idStr":"3574595239855745"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"The market is mad and it is increasingly annoying when prices are continously being pushed down by non sensical monsters. Argh.&nbsp;","listText":"The market is mad and it is increasingly annoying when prices are continously being pushed down by non sensical monsters. Argh.&nbsp;","text":"The market is mad and it is increasingly annoying when prices are continously being pushed down by non sensical monsters. Argh.","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":7,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/358993453","repostId":"1110970491","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":703,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":354935489,"gmtCreate":1617117364341,"gmtModify":1704696135139,"author":{"id":"3574595239855745","authorId":"3574595239855745","name":"Cathief","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3e45013d2ed26f004a85c3c015679222","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3574595239855745","idStr":"3574595239855745"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/SNDL\">$Sundial Growers Inc.(SNDL)$</a>can u stop being so slow?! UP already can ?","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/SNDL\">$Sundial Growers Inc.(SNDL)$</a>can u stop being so slow?! UP already can ?","text":"$Sundial Growers Inc.(SNDL)$can u stop being so slow?! UP already can ?","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":6,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/354935489","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":474,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9994546781,"gmtCreate":1661661949146,"gmtModify":1676536557677,"author":{"id":"3574595239855745","authorId":"3574595239855745","name":"Cathief","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3e45013d2ed26f004a85c3c015679222","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3574595239855745","idStr":"3574595239855745"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"So you can see, you don't want to buy what's done well recently, in fact, you want to do just the opposite.&nbsp;","listText":"So you can see, you don't want to buy what's done well recently, in fact, you want to do just the opposite.&nbsp;","text":"So you can see, you don't want to buy what's done well recently, in fact, you want to do just the opposite.","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":5,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9994546781","repostId":"1128541490","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"1128541490","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1661644682,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1128541490?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2022-08-28 07:58","market":"other","language":"en","title":"QQQ: An Excessive Bust Is Coming","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1128541490","media":"Seeking Alpha","summary":"SummaryQQQ tracks the hottest stocks in the world, American technology and the Nasdaq 100.George Soros coined the boom-bust model, in which he explained that excess on the upside often leads to excess","content":"<html><head></head><body><p>Summary</p><ul><li>QQQ tracks the hottest stocks in the world, American technology and the Nasdaq 100.</li><li>George Soros coined the boom-bust model, in which he explained that excess on the upside often leads to excess on the downside.</li><li>Looking at the fundamentals of QQQ, it could get ugly.</li><li>In the decade ahead, we project returns of 4% per annum.</li></ul><h3>The Thesis</h3><p>At the end of 2021, the <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/QQQ\">Invesco QQQ ETF</a>, which tracks theNasdaq 100, reached a PE of 39 and a cyclically adjusted PE (CAPE ratio) of 60. Legendary investor George Soros has believed for manyyears that excess on the upside leads to excess on the downside. QQQ could fall much, much further as the excess drains out of its valuation. History has shown that when the CAPE ratio reaches 60, real returns for the following 15 years settle around negative 4% per annum:</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7bc80a1f57b8dfee7b03b2b120bca92d\" tg-width=\"838\" tg-height=\"532\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/>CAPE Ratio Vs. Real Returns (Lyn Alden)</p><h3>All Aboard The Hype Train</h3><p>If there&#39;s one thing that&#39;s worked over the past decade, it was holding U.S. tech stocks. Thus, the outperformance of QQQ, which has 50% of its holdings in information technology and another 30% or so in communication and consumer tech.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9edb873b2feb324ecda807b382f4ee2e\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"304\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/>QQQ&#39;s Sector Allocations (Invesco)</p><p>Invesco advertises this ETF by pointing out its track record of outperformance and its trading volume:</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ff0af3bad598a067897135ce8fbc3795\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"175\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/>QQQ ETF (Invesco)</p><p>The problem is, tech stocks outperformed massively before the dot com bubble burst. Following the implosion of 2000, it took more than 15 years for the Nasdaq 100 to recover its losses:</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/41f19d55e2420774df33a2ea218d39de\" tg-width=\"1280\" tg-height=\"802\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/>QQQ data by YCharts</p><p>In fact, the reason QQQ has outperformed over the past 15 years is because tech underperformed from 2000 to 2010, in my opinion. This meant there were huge bargains in the sector as everyone was depressed about tech stocks. So you can see, you don&#39;t want to buy what&#39;s done well recently, in fact, you want to do just the opposite. We&#39;ve studied several investors who outperformed the market over multiple decades, from Warren Buffett, to Carl Icahn, to Sir John Templeton, to Howard Marks. They all had one thing in common, they bought when there was blood in the streets. QQQ is concentrated in the hottest sectors of the past 5 years, and that&#39;s not where you want to hunt for outsized returns:</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/66e2ddbe72a70d8cddbdf93fc4d34160\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"261\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/>Sector Performance (Fidelity)</p><p>The average S&amp;P 500 company survives only20 years, and for tech stocks, that lifespan could be even shorter as these businesses face brutal competition, and the industry is constantly changing. If we look at businesses that survived for more than200 years, we get banks like JPMorgan Chase (JPM), chemical companies like DuPont (DD), and consumer staples companies like Colgate-Palmolive (CL). These are simple and predictable businesses in industries that enjoy a very slow pace of change.</p><p>It&#39;s About To Get Ugly</p><p><b>QQQ&#39;s Top 10 Holdings</b></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/597aa9aae54335b405a9cef0e95951a2\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"290\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/>QQQ&#39;s Top 10 Holdings (Invesco)</p><p>We&#39;ve analyzed many of QQQ&#39;s top holdings individually, including <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AAPL\">Apple </a>, <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MSFT\">Microsoft </a>, <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AMZN\">Amazon </a>, <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TSLA\">Tesla </a>, Google (GOOG) (GOOGL), <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/META\">Meta </a>, and <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/COST\">Costco </a>. Marked in red above are our expected annual returns for each business, with a 10-year time horizon. Overall, this equates to a 4% expected annual return for QQQ&#39;s top holdings. In other words, you could get an inflation adjusted return of 0% per annum holding these stocks.</p><p>History has shown the market tends to swing from overly optimistic to overly pessimistic. Legendary investor George Soros coined this the boom-bust model. He believed that excessive margin, speculation, and exuberance on the upside creates excessive insolvency, fear, and selling on the downside. In other words, the larger the boom, the larger the bust. So, what do you think comes next for QQQ? If we had to wager, we&#39;d bet on an excessive bust.</p><h3>Risks To The Thesis</h3><p>Crazy things can go on longer than you expect. In 1989, the PE of the Japanese index reached 60x earnings. The Nasdaq 100 is still nowhere near this level. Enthusiasm can always return in the short-run.</p><p>Also, while Sir John Templeton has cautioned against saying &#34;this time is different,&#34; he conceded that 20% of the time it really is different. Technology stocks have defied gravity up to this point. And, holding a diversified group of technology stocks with a 30-year time horizon isn&#39;t a terrible idea. We&#39;ve seen many of these businesses develop enduring moats and compound at a rapid pace for an extended period of time. An asset-light model and rapidly growing industry is generally a good place to be. Technology should be a part of everyone&#39;s portfolio, at the right valuation.</p><p>Our Valuation</p><p>The Nasdaq 100 has aPE ratio of 27.2, but its earnings could still be at a cyclical peak, as evidenced by its much higher CAPE ratio. This means QQQ likely has earnings per share around $11.78. Looking at the aggregate of several QQQ businesses we&#39;ve analyzed, combined with the cheaper, but slower growing businesses that round out the QQQ ETF, we believe EPS will grow at 8% per annum in the decade ahead. This growth should outpace the S&amp;P 500&#39;s EPS, but the valuation is more stretched than the S&amp;P.</p><p>Our 2032 price target for QQQ is $445 per share, implying returns of 4% per annum with dividends reinvested.</p><ul><li>Growing QQQ&#39;s EPS at 8% per annum, we get $25.43 per share in 2032. We&#39;ve assigned a terminal multiple of 17.5x as we believe growth will slow slightly in the decade that follows. Keep in mind, this is a base-case scenario.</li></ul><h3>The Bottom Line</h3><p>The risk and reward is unfavorable for QQQ, and some of the exuberance we saw on the upside could reverse on the downside. It&#39;s possible you get inflation-adjusted returns of 0% per annum even after holding for 10 years. With such long-duration cash flows, QQQ is very susceptible to an increase in interest rates.</p><p><b>What To Do About It</b></p><p>We&#39;re projecting higher returns in communication companies like Meta and Google than other names in this ETF. Interestingly, communication services has been the worst performing sector of the past 5 years. There&#39;s despondency here, and with despondency comes the potential for outsized returns. For ETF investors, we recommend Vanguard Communication Services ETF (VOX). Here are its top holdings:</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d4c222464e3dc7817645ef7dd9a5499c\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"351\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/>VOX Holdings (Vanguard)</p></body></html>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>QQQ: An Excessive Bust Is Coming</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nQQQ: An Excessive Bust Is Coming\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2022-08-28 07:58 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://seekingalpha.com/article/4537241-qqq-an-excessive-bust-is-coming><strong>Seeking Alpha</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>SummaryQQQ tracks the hottest stocks in the world, American technology and the Nasdaq 100.George Soros coined the boom-bust model, in which he explained that excess on the upside often leads to excess...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4537241-qqq-an-excessive-bust-is-coming\">Source Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"QQQ":"纳指100ETF"},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4537241-qqq-an-excessive-bust-is-coming","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1128541490","content_text":"SummaryQQQ tracks the hottest stocks in the world, American technology and the Nasdaq 100.George Soros coined the boom-bust model, in which he explained that excess on the upside often leads to excess on the downside.Looking at the fundamentals of QQQ, it could get ugly.In the decade ahead, we project returns of 4% per annum.The ThesisAt the end of 2021, the Invesco QQQ ETF, which tracks theNasdaq 100, reached a PE of 39 and a cyclically adjusted PE (CAPE ratio) of 60. Legendary investor George Soros has believed for manyyears that excess on the upside leads to excess on the downside. QQQ could fall much, much further as the excess drains out of its valuation. History has shown that when the CAPE ratio reaches 60, real returns for the following 15 years settle around negative 4% per annum:CAPE Ratio Vs. Real Returns (Lyn Alden)All Aboard The Hype TrainIf there's one thing that's worked over the past decade, it was holding U.S. tech stocks. Thus, the outperformance of QQQ, which has 50% of its holdings in information technology and another 30% or so in communication and consumer tech.QQQ's Sector Allocations (Invesco)Invesco advertises this ETF by pointing out its track record of outperformance and its trading volume:QQQ ETF (Invesco)The problem is, tech stocks outperformed massively before the dot com bubble burst. Following the implosion of 2000, it took more than 15 years for the Nasdaq 100 to recover its losses:QQQ data by YChartsIn fact, the reason QQQ has outperformed over the past 15 years is because tech underperformed from 2000 to 2010, in my opinion. This meant there were huge bargains in the sector as everyone was depressed about tech stocks. So you can see, you don't want to buy what's done well recently, in fact, you want to do just the opposite. We've studied several investors who outperformed the market over multiple decades, from Warren Buffett, to Carl Icahn, to Sir John Templeton, to Howard Marks. They all had one thing in common, they bought when there was blood in the streets. QQQ is concentrated in the hottest sectors of the past 5 years, and that's not where you want to hunt for outsized returns:Sector Performance (Fidelity)The average S&P 500 company survives only20 years, and for tech stocks, that lifespan could be even shorter as these businesses face brutal competition, and the industry is constantly changing. If we look at businesses that survived for more than200 years, we get banks like JPMorgan Chase (JPM), chemical companies like DuPont (DD), and consumer staples companies like Colgate-Palmolive (CL). These are simple and predictable businesses in industries that enjoy a very slow pace of change.It's About To Get UglyQQQ's Top 10 HoldingsQQQ's Top 10 Holdings (Invesco)We've analyzed many of QQQ's top holdings individually, including Apple , Microsoft , Amazon , Tesla , Google (GOOG) (GOOGL), Meta , and Costco . Marked in red above are our expected annual returns for each business, with a 10-year time horizon. Overall, this equates to a 4% expected annual return for QQQ's top holdings. In other words, you could get an inflation adjusted return of 0% per annum holding these stocks.History has shown the market tends to swing from overly optimistic to overly pessimistic. Legendary investor George Soros coined this the boom-bust model. He believed that excessive margin, speculation, and exuberance on the upside creates excessive insolvency, fear, and selling on the downside. In other words, the larger the boom, the larger the bust. So, what do you think comes next for QQQ? If we had to wager, we'd bet on an excessive bust.Risks To The ThesisCrazy things can go on longer than you expect. In 1989, the PE of the Japanese index reached 60x earnings. The Nasdaq 100 is still nowhere near this level. Enthusiasm can always return in the short-run.Also, while Sir John Templeton has cautioned against saying \"this time is different,\" he conceded that 20% of the time it really is different. Technology stocks have defied gravity up to this point. And, holding a diversified group of technology stocks with a 30-year time horizon isn't a terrible idea. We've seen many of these businesses develop enduring moats and compound at a rapid pace for an extended period of time. An asset-light model and rapidly growing industry is generally a good place to be. Technology should be a part of everyone's portfolio, at the right valuation.Our ValuationThe Nasdaq 100 has aPE ratio of 27.2, but its earnings could still be at a cyclical peak, as evidenced by its much higher CAPE ratio. This means QQQ likely has earnings per share around $11.78. Looking at the aggregate of several QQQ businesses we've analyzed, combined with the cheaper, but slower growing businesses that round out the QQQ ETF, we believe EPS will grow at 8% per annum in the decade ahead. This growth should outpace the S&P 500's EPS, but the valuation is more stretched than the S&P.Our 2032 price target for QQQ is $445 per share, implying returns of 4% per annum with dividends reinvested.Growing QQQ's EPS at 8% per annum, we get $25.43 per share in 2032. We've assigned a terminal multiple of 17.5x as we believe growth will slow slightly in the decade that follows. Keep in mind, this is a base-case scenario.The Bottom LineThe risk and reward is unfavorable for QQQ, and some of the exuberance we saw on the upside could reverse on the downside. It's possible you get inflation-adjusted returns of 0% per annum even after holding for 10 years. With such long-duration cash flows, QQQ is very susceptible to an increase in interest rates.What To Do About ItWe're projecting higher returns in communication companies like Meta and Google than other names in this ETF. Interestingly, communication services has been the worst performing sector of the past 5 years. There's despondency here, and with despondency comes the potential for outsized returns. For ETF investors, we recommend Vanguard Communication Services ETF (VOX). Here are its top holdings:VOX Holdings (Vanguard)","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"QQQ":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":3455,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9039793280,"gmtCreate":1646114948713,"gmtModify":1676534093022,"author":{"id":"3574595239855745","authorId":"3574595239855745","name":"Cathief","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3e45013d2ed26f004a85c3c015679222","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3574595239855745","idStr":"3574595239855745"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"But there are also alot of companies that doesnt use Zoom for security reasons...","listText":"But there are also alot of companies that doesnt use Zoom for security reasons...","text":"But there are also alot of companies that doesnt use Zoom for security reasons...","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9039793280","repostId":"1136272082","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"1136272082","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1646106831,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1136272082?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2022-03-01 11:53","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Market Correction: 2 Top Tech Stocks Down 63% and 78% to Buy Right Now","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1136272082","media":"Motley Fool","summary":"Wall Street is overlooking the long-term value of these businesses.Since peaking in November, the te","content":"<html><head></head><body><p>Wall Street is overlooking the long-term value of these businesses.</p><p>Since peaking in November, the tech-heavy <b>Nasdaq Composite</b> has dropped nearly 15%, putting the index incorrection territory. And many individual stocks have fallen much further. For instance, shares of <b>DocuSign</b> and <b>Zoom Video Communications</b> have dropped 63% and 78%, respectively, from their highs, as Wall Street continues to weigh the impact of high inflation and potential interest rate hikes on corporate profitability.</p><p>Many investors have also mistakenly categorized DocuSign and Zoom as &#34;pandemic stocks,&#34; citing slowing revenue growth as cause for alarm. But nothing could be further from the truth. Both businesses play an important role in digital transformation, and their services should only become more valuable in the years ahead. Better yet, both stocks look relatively cheap right now.</p><p>Here&#39;s what you should know.</p><p><b>1. DocuSign</b></p><p>Agreements are an essential part of any business. Organizations form agreements with customers, employees, and partners, but traditional paper-based processes -- such as printing, signing, and taking action on a physical document -- are slow, costly, and prone to errors. With its Agreement Cloud, DocuSign aims to accelerate and simplify workflow by digitizing and automating the agreement process. Its platform spans over a dozen applications, and it integrates with over 350 other technologies.</p><p>At its core is DocuSign eSignature, a product that allows documents to be signed in a digital, secure, and legally valid manner, on virtually any device. But the company&#39;s portfolio also includes tools for automatic contract generation, AI-powered analytics and risk scoring, and payment collection. Collectively, those tools help clients work more quickly and efficiently.</p><p>Founded in 2003, DocuSign is a pioneer in the e-signature industry, and the company has parlayed its first-mover status into a robust competitive edge. DocuSign ranks as the No. 1 e-signature tool, holding over 70% market share, and its platform boasts a net promoter score (NPS) of 72. For context, the NPS is designed to measure the customer experience, and 50 is an impressive score, but an NPS of 70 (or higher) is considered world class.</p><p>Not surprisingly, DocuSign&#39;s strong competitive position and excellent rapport with customers have fueled impressive growth. Over the past year, the company&#39;s customer base expanded 34% to 1.1 million; revenue soared 51% to $2 billion; and free cash flow skyrocketed 125% to $418.7 million. More importantly, management puts its addressable market at $50 billion, meaning DocuSign still has plenty of room to grow. And with the stock trading at 11.4times sales-- significantly cheaper than its three-year average of 22 times sales -- now looks like a good time to buy a few shares.</p><p><b>2. Zoom Video Communications</b></p><p>Zoom became a household name during the pandemic. Its core product, videoconferencing app Zoom Meetings, helped socially distanced friends and families stay in touch, while allowing students and employees to learn and work remotely. However, Zoom is more than a videoconferencing application; it&#39;s a communications company, and its platform also includes a cloud-based phone system (Zoom Phone) and a software-based collaboration suite for hybrid workforces (Zoom Rooms).</p><p>While some employees have already returned to the office, remote work is likely here to stay. In fact, research firm Gartner believes that 48% of employees will work remotely at least part time in a post-COVID world, up from 30% prior to the pandemic. And Gartner says that by 2024 just 25% of enterprise meetings will take place in person, down from 60% in 2019. Both of those trends are good news for Zoom and its shareholders.</p><p>Better yet, Zoom is actually becoming more popular. In the video conferencing space, the company captured 49% market share in 2021, up from 26% in 2020. Even more impressive, Zoom is actually the fifth most popular enterprise application of any kind, according to <b>Okta</b>&#39;s 2022 Business at Work report.</p><p>In the most recent quarter, Zoom hit 512,100 customers, up 18%. And the company has kept its expansion rate above 130% for the last 14 quarters, meaning the average customer consistently spends 30% more. Fueled by that stickiness, revenue soared 100% to $3.9 billion over the past year, and free cash flow rose 59% to $1.7 billion. More importantly, management puts its market opportunity at $91 billion by 2025, leaving plenty of room for future growth. And with the stock trading at 9.7 times sales -- near its cheapest valuation since going public in 2019 -- now looks like a good time to invest in this beaten-down tech company.</p></body></html>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Market Correction: 2 Top Tech Stocks Down 63% and 78% to Buy Right Now</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nMarket Correction: 2 Top Tech Stocks Down 63% and 78% to Buy Right Now\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2022-03-01 11:53 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://www.fool.com/investing/2022/02/28/market-correction-2-top-tech-stocks-down-63-and-78/><strong>Motley Fool</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>Wall Street is overlooking the long-term value of these businesses.Since peaking in November, the tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite has dropped nearly 15%, putting the index incorrection territory. And many...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://www.fool.com/investing/2022/02/28/market-correction-2-top-tech-stocks-down-63-and-78/\">Source Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"DOCU":"Docusign","ZM":"Zoom"},"source_url":"https://www.fool.com/investing/2022/02/28/market-correction-2-top-tech-stocks-down-63-and-78/","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1136272082","content_text":"Wall Street is overlooking the long-term value of these businesses.Since peaking in November, the tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite has dropped nearly 15%, putting the index incorrection territory. And many individual stocks have fallen much further. For instance, shares of DocuSign and Zoom Video Communications have dropped 63% and 78%, respectively, from their highs, as Wall Street continues to weigh the impact of high inflation and potential interest rate hikes on corporate profitability.Many investors have also mistakenly categorized DocuSign and Zoom as \"pandemic stocks,\" citing slowing revenue growth as cause for alarm. But nothing could be further from the truth. Both businesses play an important role in digital transformation, and their services should only become more valuable in the years ahead. Better yet, both stocks look relatively cheap right now.Here's what you should know.1. DocuSignAgreements are an essential part of any business. Organizations form agreements with customers, employees, and partners, but traditional paper-based processes -- such as printing, signing, and taking action on a physical document -- are slow, costly, and prone to errors. With its Agreement Cloud, DocuSign aims to accelerate and simplify workflow by digitizing and automating the agreement process. Its platform spans over a dozen applications, and it integrates with over 350 other technologies.At its core is DocuSign eSignature, a product that allows documents to be signed in a digital, secure, and legally valid manner, on virtually any device. But the company's portfolio also includes tools for automatic contract generation, AI-powered analytics and risk scoring, and payment collection. Collectively, those tools help clients work more quickly and efficiently.Founded in 2003, DocuSign is a pioneer in the e-signature industry, and the company has parlayed its first-mover status into a robust competitive edge. DocuSign ranks as the No. 1 e-signature tool, holding over 70% market share, and its platform boasts a net promoter score (NPS) of 72. For context, the NPS is designed to measure the customer experience, and 50 is an impressive score, but an NPS of 70 (or higher) is considered world class.Not surprisingly, DocuSign's strong competitive position and excellent rapport with customers have fueled impressive growth. Over the past year, the company's customer base expanded 34% to 1.1 million; revenue soared 51% to $2 billion; and free cash flow skyrocketed 125% to $418.7 million. More importantly, management puts its addressable market at $50 billion, meaning DocuSign still has plenty of room to grow. And with the stock trading at 11.4times sales-- significantly cheaper than its three-year average of 22 times sales -- now looks like a good time to buy a few shares.2. Zoom Video CommunicationsZoom became a household name during the pandemic. Its core product, videoconferencing app Zoom Meetings, helped socially distanced friends and families stay in touch, while allowing students and employees to learn and work remotely. However, Zoom is more than a videoconferencing application; it's a communications company, and its platform also includes a cloud-based phone system (Zoom Phone) and a software-based collaboration suite for hybrid workforces (Zoom Rooms).While some employees have already returned to the office, remote work is likely here to stay. In fact, research firm Gartner believes that 48% of employees will work remotely at least part time in a post-COVID world, up from 30% prior to the pandemic. And Gartner says that by 2024 just 25% of enterprise meetings will take place in person, down from 60% in 2019. Both of those trends are good news for Zoom and its shareholders.Better yet, Zoom is actually becoming more popular. In the video conferencing space, the company captured 49% market share in 2021, up from 26% in 2020. Even more impressive, Zoom is actually the fifth most popular enterprise application of any kind, according to Okta's 2022 Business at Work report.In the most recent quarter, Zoom hit 512,100 customers, up 18%. And the company has kept its expansion rate above 130% for the last 14 quarters, meaning the average customer consistently spends 30% more. Fueled by that stickiness, revenue soared 100% to $3.9 billion over the past year, and free cash flow rose 59% to $1.7 billion. More importantly, management puts its market opportunity at $91 billion by 2025, leaving plenty of room for future growth. And with the stock trading at 9.7 times sales -- near its cheapest valuation since going public in 2019 -- now looks like a good time to invest in this beaten-down tech company.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"DOCU":0.9,"ZM":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":871,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9909879365,"gmtCreate":1658855858057,"gmtModify":1676536217962,"author":{"id":"3574595239855745","authorId":"3574595239855745","name":"Cathief","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3e45013d2ed26f004a85c3c015679222","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3574595239855745","idStr":"3574595239855745"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Swinging game","listText":"Swinging game","text":"Swinging game","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":4,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9909879365","repostId":"1195583109","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1195583109","kind":"news","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"Providing stock market headlines, business news, financials and earnings ","home_visible":1,"media_name":"Tiger Newspress","id":"1079075236","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba"},"pubTimestamp":1658846131,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1195583109?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2022-07-26 22:35","market":"us","language":"en","title":"EV Stocks Slid in Morning Trading","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1195583109","media":"Tiger Newspress","summary":"EV stocks slid in morning trading. Tesla, Lucid, Rivian, Nio, Xpeng Motors, Li Auto, Nikola, Faraday","content":"<html><head></head><body><p>EV stocks slid in morning trading. Tesla, Lucid, Rivian, Nio, Xpeng Motors, Li Auto, Nikola, Faraday Future, Tusimple Holdings, Arrival and Fisker fell between 1% and 5%.<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d80674238adf9a301e67ca7111c3df2d\" tg-width=\"300\" tg-height=\"487\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p></body></html>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>EV Stocks Slid in Morning Trading</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nEV Stocks Slid in Morning Trading\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/1079075236\">\n\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">Tiger Newspress </p>\n<p class=\"h-time\">2022-07-26 22:35</p>\n</div>\n\n</a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<html><head></head><body><p>EV stocks slid in morning trading. Tesla, Lucid, Rivian, Nio, Xpeng Motors, Li Auto, Nikola, Faraday Future, Tusimple Holdings, Arrival and Fisker fell between 1% and 5%.<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d80674238adf9a301e67ca7111c3df2d\" tg-width=\"300\" tg-height=\"487\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p></body></html>\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"XPEV":"小鹏汽车","TSLA":"特斯拉","LI":"理想汽车","NIO":"蔚来"},"source_url":"","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1195583109","content_text":"EV stocks slid in morning trading. Tesla, Lucid, Rivian, Nio, Xpeng Motors, Li Auto, Nikola, Faraday Future, Tusimple Holdings, Arrival and Fisker fell between 1% and 5%.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"XPEV":0.9,"TSLA":0.9,"NIO":0.9,"LI":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2404,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9076548080,"gmtCreate":1657878641040,"gmtModify":1676536076335,"author":{"id":"3574595239855745","authorId":"3574595239855745","name":"Cathief","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3e45013d2ed26f004a85c3c015679222","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3574595239855745","idStr":"3574595239855745"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Lol, oh precious toilet paper.","listText":"Lol, oh precious toilet paper.","text":"Lol, oh precious toilet paper.","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":4,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9076548080","repostId":"1143400421","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"1143400421","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1657877203,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1143400421?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2022-07-15 17:26","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Nvidia And Micron Face Toilet Paper Hoarding Moment","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1143400421","media":"Seeking Alpha","summary":"SummaryThe chip business is notoriously cyclical, and you will see leading stocks such as Nvidia and","content":"<html><head></head><body><p><b>Summary</b></p><ul><li>The chip business is notoriously cyclical, and you will see leading stocks such as Nvidia and Micron are archetype examples.</li><li>To paraphrase Ben Graham, perfectly timing the cycle is a practical and emotional impossibility.</li><li>Although having an overall sense of which stage we are in the cycle is not only possible but also sufficient to guide sound investment decisions already.</li><li>The chip shortage has turned into a glut. The historical chip cycles lasted about 3.5 to 4 years, and I foresee the current downturn stage to last into late 2022 or early 2023.</li><li>However, valuation always reacts more hastily and seems already raced to the bottom ahead of fundamentals.</li></ul><p><b>The investment thesis</b></p><p>The chip business is notoriously cyclical, more so than the overall economy at least. And by this time, it is kind of public information that the last chip cycle has already passed its peak. You can see that either from the stock prices (chart 1 below) or the sales (chart 2 below). Chart 1 shows the YTD price decline of the sector&#39;s two leading stocks, NVIDIA (NASDAQ:NVDA) and Micron (NASDAQ:MU). NVDA suffered a total loss of more than 48% YTD and MU more than 36% (which requires a 92% and 56% rally to break even, respectively). In contrast, the overall tech sector (represented by the QQQ fund) suffered a relatively milder correction of 28% loss.</p><p>Chart 2, taken from this Reuters report, shows the cyclicality of the sector more vividly. The report calls the current stage the toilet paper hoarding moment for the chip business, for good ideas. Due to the chip shortage earlier in the year, companies started to hoard chips &#34;just in case&#34; they need them and cannot get them (just like people hoarding toilet paper when COVID first broke out). And quickly the shortage turns into a glut, taking chip companies such as NVDA and MU and also Wall Street by surprise in the same way the toilet paper hoarding surprised Kimberly-Clark (KMB) and Clorox (CLX).</p><p>You can see the cyclical dynamics pretty clearly in the chart. Sales growth (the orange bars) went through almost a perfect sine wave, with about a 3.5 to 4 years cycle. The growth peaked in early 2018 and then again in 2021 September. The growth (or negative growth to be more precise) bottomed for the last time in June 2019. If it follows the same 3.5 to 4 years cycle, then one would expect the next bottom to occur in the second half of 2022 or early 2023.</p><p>In investing, trying to perfectly time the entry at the bottom is a fool&#39;s errand, both practically and emotionally. However, investors can develop a pretty good sense of where the pendulum currently is through study and research, especially similar historical events. And such a general idea is already sufficient to drive good investment returns. It is always better to be approximately right (or directionally right) than precisely wrong.</p><p>In the remainder of this article, I will share my experiences and outlook for the chip cycle with a focus on NVDA and MU. You will see that my view is that the business fundamental cycle has not bottomed yet (again, I expect that to happen in the second half of 2022 or early 2023), but the valuation cycle has gotten there already (valuation always leads fundamentals). And this is the reason we started a position in MU recently. I will also share some thoughts on why I prefer MU over NVDA toward the end.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a4fedf37b7fcc8538bb1b23a701e0d79\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"444\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p>Seeking Alpha</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9929fef87391830d4ba8f993b382902e\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"325\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p>Source: Techinsights Inc and Reuters</p><p><b>Where are we in the cycle?</b></p><p>The Reuters chart above showed the cyclicality of the general chip sector in the past 5 years (which is about one cycle). And the chart below broadens the view a bit to the past 10 years, showing the last two cycles for NVDA and MU. You see the same sine wave behavior. At a deeper level, nothing &#34;new&#34; really happens in investing. Things may take on new names (AI, cryptocurrency, et al), but the fundamental governing laws never change as long as human nature does not change.</p><p>Philosophies aside, we see that the previous chip expansion cycle peaked in 2014 and peaked again toward 2018, resulting in a cycle of about 4 years ago (in the 3.5 to 4 years range). Similarly, the contracting cycle reached its worst in 2016 and again toward 2020, showing the 3.5 to 4 years cyclicality once again.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7fe00777c85fe9898934d093206b5d8a\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"430\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p>Seeking Alpha</p><p>Looking forward, I foresee the next steps will be like the following. Again, I won&#39;t pretend that I can predict the details and specific timing precisely. But I&#39;ve seen the movie and read the script multiple times before both in the chip sector and other sectors. Hence, I am quite confident about the general direction, which has been sufficient to guide my investment decisions (e.g., to stay away from the chip sector no matter how hyped they are during 2021). On the demand side, the market will first have to digest the chips that they have hoarded. On the supply side, MU and NVDA will have to sell their own accumulated inventory first, which will take some time as the demand will be low. You can see the signs from the chart below, which shows that days of inventory standing. MU&#39;s inventory fluctuated in a range between about 80 days to 128 days with an average of 104 days in the past 10 years.</p><p>NVDA&#39;s inventory fluctuated in a range between about 67 days to 112 days with an average of 86 days in the past 10 years. Both their inventories reached a 10-year peak around 2020 and 2021, which to me is a clear sign of overexpansion and overconfidence (that their products will sell as fast as they can make them). Then in a wicked way, the COVID and global supply chain disruptions actually helped them and provided data to support their overconfidence (at least temporarily). The demand side turned from a &#34;just in time&#34; mode to a &#34;just in case&#34; mode by hoarding chips and driving down their inventory.</p><p>Now the hoarding has come to an end, and their inventory is standing at a relatively high level (above historical average). So the next logical step is either to reduce the price (there are signs of this already as detailed in the risk section) and also scale back production if price reduction itself is not sufficient. In late June, MU Chief Business OfficerSumit Sadanaalready mentioned that MU would reduce production.</p><p>When both price and production have been reduced sufficiently, then the contraction cycle will end and the expansion cycle restarts. Inventory is an important metric that I suggest investors monitor closely in the next few months, and it&#39;s something I will pay special attention to during their upcoming earnings reports.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/bd9955555e7d5ccab1a54f6c4c5ef6c1\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"448\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p>Seeking Alpha</p><p><b>The forever forward-looking nature of P/E</b></p><p>Investors are always forward-looking (like what I am doing here). And the current valuation always tries to price in future developments. Again, just like what I&#39;m doing here - since I am predicting the contraction cycle to end in early 2023, the price I am willing to pay today is based on the condition that I predict for early 2023, not the current conditions.</p><p>For this reason, valuation always leads business fundamentals as you can clearly see from the following charts. Even though the fundamentals have not bottomed yet (actually the chip sector is still reporting positive growth if you recall from the early charts), their P/E ratios already reached a multi-year bottom.</p><p>To be more specific, the FW P/E for MU has fluctuated between about 6.3x and 16x with an average of 10.7x. And you see can that its current FW P/E of 6.9x is already close to the multi-year bottom. The picture is very similar for NVDA. Its FW P/E has fluctuated between about 26.7x and 77x with an average of 44.4x. And its current FW P/E of 28x is already close to the multi-year bottom.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9f8e19309f4e4ed181c688887e19e840\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"449\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p>Seeking Alpha</p><p>The following chart probably illustrates the dynamics more clearly here. The chart shows the YoY quarterly revenue growth of MU overlaid with its P/E ratio during the last cycle. As you can see, in its last contraction cycle, its P/E bottomed in early 2019, about 10 months ahead of its fundamentals (its contraction did not end till late 2019). Then in its last expansion cycle, its P/E peaked in early 2021, leading its fundamentals by about five months.</p><p>Now back to my projection that the current contraction cycle will reach its worst in the next 6 to 12 months, if history is of any guidance, the valuation has already contracted enough by this time.</p><p>Let me emphasize once again that I&#39;m not pretending that I have a crystal ball and know all the specifics. A friend of mine, specializing in technical analysis, once told me that A) if you can predict EITHER one of the two things, the target price OR the target timing, you can already become rich, and B) if anyone tells you that he can predict BOTH, then he&#39;s simply lying. The same wisdom applies here. Prices of both MU and NVDA could certainly fall more from here and/or their contraction cycle last longer. But as mentioned before, an overall sense of the stage is good enough to generate market-beating performance already (i.e., staying away from NVDA when it has already been expanding for 3 years in a row and P/E climbed to 70+).</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b005c32bad6fdc51ca3585ed1ec619aa\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"446\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p>Seeking Alpha</p><p><b>Expected return</b></p><p>The reason that I hold MU but not NVDA is twofold: expected returns as shown in the roadmap below and also risks (as detailed in the next section). The mechanics of the roadmap has been detailed our earlier article. The underpinning idea is that:</p><blockquote><ul><li><i>The long-term ROI for a business owner is simply determined by two things: A) the price paid to buy the business and B) the quality of the business. More specifically, part A is determined by the owner&#39;s earning yield (&#34;OEY&#34;) when we purchased the business. And that is why PE is the first dimension in our roadmap. Part B is determined by the quality of the business and that is why ROCE (return on capital employed), the most important metric for profitability, is the second dimension in our roadmap.</i></li><li><i>Now, the long-term growth rate is governed by ROCE and the Reinvestment Rate. These are the two most important growth engines, and they mutually enhance each other. High ROCE means every $1 reinvested can lead to a higher growth rate, which leads to more future profits and more flexible capital allocation to fuel further growth, and so on. So to summarize:</i></li><li><i>Longer-Term ROI = valuation + quality = OEY + Growth Rate = OEY + ROCE*Reinvestment Rate</i></li></ul></blockquote><p>Under this framework, we like the projected long-term return of MU better. Its profitability measured by ROCE is undoubtedly lower than NVDA (about 30% compared to NVDA&#39;s 60% to 70%), but the total return is higher when valuation and quality are holistically considered. And note both NVDA and MU enjoy far superb profitability over the general economy (whose ROCE is around 20%), and both offer favorable odds to outperform the market under their current conditions.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2cf17d24302513d7fa2a521c2efaa2ba\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"348\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p>Author</p><p><b>Final thoughts and risks</b></p><p>The silicon shortage has turned into a glut. And it will take a while (my estimate is about 6 to 12 months) for the glut to clean up. In the meantime, chip producers such as MU and NVDA will have to reduce prices and/or reduction production. MU Chief Business Officer Sumit Sadana already mentioned a plan to reduce production. And analysts have already noted pricing forgraphics cards fell by about 20% in the June quarter from the March quarter due to rising inventories.</p><p>The historical chip cycles lasted about 3.5 to 4 years. As such, I foresee the current downturn stage to last into late 2022 or early 2023. Although valuation is forever forward-looking and always reacts more hastily. Historically, valuation has led businesses fundamentals by about 5 to 10 months and seems already raced to the bottom for both MU and NVDA in this current downturn cycle.</p><p>Finally, other risks. History rhymes, but no two cycles are identical. This round is caught in a perfect storm, and interactions among high inflation, COVID, and war in Ukraine could prolong the downturn cycle for the general chip sector. Specific to MU and NVDA, NVDA still features an evaluated valuation risk as aforementioned. A 28x PE is not only higher than MU by comparison but also in absolute terms, especially amid recession uncertainties.</p><p>Besides the valuation consideration, another reason I like MU more than NVDA is the correlation of high-end GPUs to crypto mining, which is completely random and unpredictable to me (as detailed in our earlier article). This Barron&#39;s report seems to have made the same observation and attributed the recent large price fall in graphics cards to:</p><blockquote>Rising inventories, lower cryptocurrency prices, and concerns about Ethereum&#39;s upcoming migration from a &#34;proof-of-work&#34; model to &#34;proof-of-stake,&#34; which will negate the need for graphics cards for mining.</blockquote></body></html>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Nvidia And Micron Face Toilet Paper Hoarding Moment</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; 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}\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nNvidia And Micron Face Toilet Paper Hoarding Moment\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2022-07-15 17:26 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://seekingalpha.com/article/4523485-nvidia-micron-face-toilet-paper-hoarding-moment?source=content_type%3Areact%7Cfirst_level_url%3Ahome%7Csection%3Aportfolio%7Csection_asset%3Aheadlines%7Cline%3A3><strong>Seeking Alpha</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>SummaryThe chip business is notoriously cyclical, and you will see leading stocks such as Nvidia and Micron are archetype examples.To paraphrase Ben Graham, perfectly timing the cycle is a practical ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4523485-nvidia-micron-face-toilet-paper-hoarding-moment?source=content_type%3Areact%7Cfirst_level_url%3Ahome%7Csection%3Aportfolio%7Csection_asset%3Aheadlines%7Cline%3A3\">Source Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"MU":"美光科技","NVDA":"英伟达"},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4523485-nvidia-micron-face-toilet-paper-hoarding-moment?source=content_type%3Areact%7Cfirst_level_url%3Ahome%7Csection%3Aportfolio%7Csection_asset%3Aheadlines%7Cline%3A3","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1143400421","content_text":"SummaryThe chip business is notoriously cyclical, and you will see leading stocks such as Nvidia and Micron are archetype examples.To paraphrase Ben Graham, perfectly timing the cycle is a practical and emotional impossibility.Although having an overall sense of which stage we are in the cycle is not only possible but also sufficient to guide sound investment decisions already.The chip shortage has turned into a glut. The historical chip cycles lasted about 3.5 to 4 years, and I foresee the current downturn stage to last into late 2022 or early 2023.However, valuation always reacts more hastily and seems already raced to the bottom ahead of fundamentals.The investment thesisThe chip business is notoriously cyclical, more so than the overall economy at least. And by this time, it is kind of public information that the last chip cycle has already passed its peak. You can see that either from the stock prices (chart 1 below) or the sales (chart 2 below). Chart 1 shows the YTD price decline of the sector's two leading stocks, NVIDIA (NASDAQ:NVDA) and Micron (NASDAQ:MU). NVDA suffered a total loss of more than 48% YTD and MU more than 36% (which requires a 92% and 56% rally to break even, respectively). In contrast, the overall tech sector (represented by the QQQ fund) suffered a relatively milder correction of 28% loss.Chart 2, taken from this Reuters report, shows the cyclicality of the sector more vividly. The report calls the current stage the toilet paper hoarding moment for the chip business, for good ideas. Due to the chip shortage earlier in the year, companies started to hoard chips \"just in case\" they need them and cannot get them (just like people hoarding toilet paper when COVID first broke out). And quickly the shortage turns into a glut, taking chip companies such as NVDA and MU and also Wall Street by surprise in the same way the toilet paper hoarding surprised Kimberly-Clark (KMB) and Clorox (CLX).You can see the cyclical dynamics pretty clearly in the chart. Sales growth (the orange bars) went through almost a perfect sine wave, with about a 3.5 to 4 years cycle. The growth peaked in early 2018 and then again in 2021 September. The growth (or negative growth to be more precise) bottomed for the last time in June 2019. If it follows the same 3.5 to 4 years cycle, then one would expect the next bottom to occur in the second half of 2022 or early 2023.In investing, trying to perfectly time the entry at the bottom is a fool's errand, both practically and emotionally. However, investors can develop a pretty good sense of where the pendulum currently is through study and research, especially similar historical events. And such a general idea is already sufficient to drive good investment returns. It is always better to be approximately right (or directionally right) than precisely wrong.In the remainder of this article, I will share my experiences and outlook for the chip cycle with a focus on NVDA and MU. You will see that my view is that the business fundamental cycle has not bottomed yet (again, I expect that to happen in the second half of 2022 or early 2023), but the valuation cycle has gotten there already (valuation always leads fundamentals). And this is the reason we started a position in MU recently. I will also share some thoughts on why I prefer MU over NVDA toward the end.Seeking AlphaSource: Techinsights Inc and ReutersWhere are we in the cycle?The Reuters chart above showed the cyclicality of the general chip sector in the past 5 years (which is about one cycle). And the chart below broadens the view a bit to the past 10 years, showing the last two cycles for NVDA and MU. You see the same sine wave behavior. At a deeper level, nothing \"new\" really happens in investing. Things may take on new names (AI, cryptocurrency, et al), but the fundamental governing laws never change as long as human nature does not change.Philosophies aside, we see that the previous chip expansion cycle peaked in 2014 and peaked again toward 2018, resulting in a cycle of about 4 years ago (in the 3.5 to 4 years range). Similarly, the contracting cycle reached its worst in 2016 and again toward 2020, showing the 3.5 to 4 years cyclicality once again.Seeking AlphaLooking forward, I foresee the next steps will be like the following. Again, I won't pretend that I can predict the details and specific timing precisely. But I've seen the movie and read the script multiple times before both in the chip sector and other sectors. Hence, I am quite confident about the general direction, which has been sufficient to guide my investment decisions (e.g., to stay away from the chip sector no matter how hyped they are during 2021). On the demand side, the market will first have to digest the chips that they have hoarded. On the supply side, MU and NVDA will have to sell their own accumulated inventory first, which will take some time as the demand will be low. You can see the signs from the chart below, which shows that days of inventory standing. MU's inventory fluctuated in a range between about 80 days to 128 days with an average of 104 days in the past 10 years.NVDA's inventory fluctuated in a range between about 67 days to 112 days with an average of 86 days in the past 10 years. Both their inventories reached a 10-year peak around 2020 and 2021, which to me is a clear sign of overexpansion and overconfidence (that their products will sell as fast as they can make them). Then in a wicked way, the COVID and global supply chain disruptions actually helped them and provided data to support their overconfidence (at least temporarily). The demand side turned from a \"just in time\" mode to a \"just in case\" mode by hoarding chips and driving down their inventory.Now the hoarding has come to an end, and their inventory is standing at a relatively high level (above historical average). So the next logical step is either to reduce the price (there are signs of this already as detailed in the risk section) and also scale back production if price reduction itself is not sufficient. In late June, MU Chief Business OfficerSumit Sadanaalready mentioned that MU would reduce production.When both price and production have been reduced sufficiently, then the contraction cycle will end and the expansion cycle restarts. Inventory is an important metric that I suggest investors monitor closely in the next few months, and it's something I will pay special attention to during their upcoming earnings reports.Seeking AlphaThe forever forward-looking nature of P/EInvestors are always forward-looking (like what I am doing here). And the current valuation always tries to price in future developments. Again, just like what I'm doing here - since I am predicting the contraction cycle to end in early 2023, the price I am willing to pay today is based on the condition that I predict for early 2023, not the current conditions.For this reason, valuation always leads business fundamentals as you can clearly see from the following charts. Even though the fundamentals have not bottomed yet (actually the chip sector is still reporting positive growth if you recall from the early charts), their P/E ratios already reached a multi-year bottom.To be more specific, the FW P/E for MU has fluctuated between about 6.3x and 16x with an average of 10.7x. And you see can that its current FW P/E of 6.9x is already close to the multi-year bottom. The picture is very similar for NVDA. Its FW P/E has fluctuated between about 26.7x and 77x with an average of 44.4x. And its current FW P/E of 28x is already close to the multi-year bottom.Seeking AlphaThe following chart probably illustrates the dynamics more clearly here. The chart shows the YoY quarterly revenue growth of MU overlaid with its P/E ratio during the last cycle. As you can see, in its last contraction cycle, its P/E bottomed in early 2019, about 10 months ahead of its fundamentals (its contraction did not end till late 2019). Then in its last expansion cycle, its P/E peaked in early 2021, leading its fundamentals by about five months.Now back to my projection that the current contraction cycle will reach its worst in the next 6 to 12 months, if history is of any guidance, the valuation has already contracted enough by this time.Let me emphasize once again that I'm not pretending that I have a crystal ball and know all the specifics. A friend of mine, specializing in technical analysis, once told me that A) if you can predict EITHER one of the two things, the target price OR the target timing, you can already become rich, and B) if anyone tells you that he can predict BOTH, then he's simply lying. The same wisdom applies here. Prices of both MU and NVDA could certainly fall more from here and/or their contraction cycle last longer. But as mentioned before, an overall sense of the stage is good enough to generate market-beating performance already (i.e., staying away from NVDA when it has already been expanding for 3 years in a row and P/E climbed to 70+).Seeking AlphaExpected returnThe reason that I hold MU but not NVDA is twofold: expected returns as shown in the roadmap below and also risks (as detailed in the next section). The mechanics of the roadmap has been detailed our earlier article. The underpinning idea is that:The long-term ROI for a business owner is simply determined by two things: A) the price paid to buy the business and B) the quality of the business. More specifically, part A is determined by the owner's earning yield (\"OEY\") when we purchased the business. And that is why PE is the first dimension in our roadmap. Part B is determined by the quality of the business and that is why ROCE (return on capital employed), the most important metric for profitability, is the second dimension in our roadmap.Now, the long-term growth rate is governed by ROCE and the Reinvestment Rate. These are the two most important growth engines, and they mutually enhance each other. High ROCE means every $1 reinvested can lead to a higher growth rate, which leads to more future profits and more flexible capital allocation to fuel further growth, and so on. So to summarize:Longer-Term ROI = valuation + quality = OEY + Growth Rate = OEY + ROCE*Reinvestment RateUnder this framework, we like the projected long-term return of MU better. Its profitability measured by ROCE is undoubtedly lower than NVDA (about 30% compared to NVDA's 60% to 70%), but the total return is higher when valuation and quality are holistically considered. And note both NVDA and MU enjoy far superb profitability over the general economy (whose ROCE is around 20%), and both offer favorable odds to outperform the market under their current conditions.AuthorFinal thoughts and risksThe silicon shortage has turned into a glut. And it will take a while (my estimate is about 6 to 12 months) for the glut to clean up. In the meantime, chip producers such as MU and NVDA will have to reduce prices and/or reduction production. MU Chief Business Officer Sumit Sadana already mentioned a plan to reduce production. And analysts have already noted pricing forgraphics cards fell by about 20% in the June quarter from the March quarter due to rising inventories.The historical chip cycles lasted about 3.5 to 4 years. As such, I foresee the current downturn stage to last into late 2022 or early 2023. Although valuation is forever forward-looking and always reacts more hastily. Historically, valuation has led businesses fundamentals by about 5 to 10 months and seems already raced to the bottom for both MU and NVDA in this current downturn cycle.Finally, other risks. History rhymes, but no two cycles are identical. This round is caught in a perfect storm, and interactions among high inflation, COVID, and war in Ukraine could prolong the downturn cycle for the general chip sector. Specific to MU and NVDA, NVDA still features an evaluated valuation risk as aforementioned. A 28x PE is not only higher than MU by comparison but also in absolute terms, especially amid recession uncertainties.Besides the valuation consideration, another reason I like MU more than NVDA is the correlation of high-end GPUs to crypto mining, which is completely random and unpredictable to me (as detailed in our earlier article). This Barron's report seems to have made the same observation and attributed the recent large price fall in graphics cards to:Rising inventories, lower cryptocurrency prices, and concerns about Ethereum's upcoming migration from a \"proof-of-work\" model to \"proof-of-stake,\" which will negate the need for graphics cards for mining.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"NVDA":0.9,"MU":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":3086,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0}],"lives":[]}