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yeelyn18

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2022-11-29

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2022-11-02

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The Fed’s Next Big Rate Hike Is Coming. Why Powell Won’t Say the End Is Near

2022-04-01

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Stocks Set for First Losing Quarter in Two Years: Markets Wrap

2021-09-07

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Hong Kong: Stocks begin day on positive note

2022-03-01

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Sea Limited Shares Gained Nearly 5% in Morning Trading

2021-08-21

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Pfizer, BioNTech stocks rises on report FDA could fully approve COVID-19 vaccine

2022-12-07

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NIO And BYD Are Converging

2022-11-21

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Alibaba Q3: Munger Remains Unfazed, Plus 3 Things Not To Overlook

2022-11-18

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Bullard Sets Tone for Fed Officials Signaling Hikes Will Roll On

2022-03-28

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March Jobs Report, PCE Inflation, Consumer Confidence: What to Know This Week

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Not long after NIO announced its intentions to break into the tier 3+ market across China to better serve mass market needs, BYD followed suit with two planned sub-brands to penetrate the premium electric passenger vehicle market.</p><p>Admittedly, BYD’s market share is substantially larger than NIO’s today – both at home and overseas – while also boasting better fundamentals, which would be supportive of its foray in the premium vehicle segment. Yet, NIO’s penetration into mass-market opportunities could also benefit by driving the volume of scale needed to support its breakeven timeline, which consensus projects to occur by or around mid-decade, while management expects to occur as soon as the third quarter of 2023.</p><p>The following analysis will go over both Chinese automakers’ respective market share expansion strategies via their planned sub-brands, and gauge the opportunity that exists for both as well as their implications on both stocks’ prospects.</p><h2><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NIO\">NIO</a></h2><h3>Overview Of Sub-Brand Strategy</h3><p>NIO first announced plans for a mass market sub-brand in August 2021, which aligned with its longer-term strategy of building a greater presence in China’s smaller tier 3+ cities and further expand its share of the country’s fast-expanding EV market.</p><blockquote>As management had discussed during the second quarter, the sub-brand will aim to offer more affordably priced vehicles to drive higher mass-market appeal. The strategic move is expected to help NIO compete for higher market share, especially in the price segment of Tesla’s (TSLA) Model Y/3, while providing “much better service.” <i>Source: “Can NIO Stock Recover in 2022?”</i></blockquote><p>The sub-brand, currently expected to launch in 2024, is also expected to be more competitively priced, with vehicle MSRPs in the range of RMB 200,000 ($30,000) to RMB 300,000 ($44,000), taking on a broader cohort of mass market rivals including BYD. The sub-brand’s launch timeline also coincides with the start of production schedule for NIO’s first in-house 800-V battery packs, which would “enable longer ranges and faster charging” compared to general mass market offerings that are currently fitted with 400-V battery packs. NIO also boasts a competitive digital portfolio today that includes in-vehicle AI “NOMI,” “NAD” ADAS, and battery swapping technology that will likely be leveraged by its sub-brands either as an embedded or add-on feature to bolster profit margins. Paired with NIO’s recently launched NT 2.0 vehicle platform, which boasts higher profit margins than its predecessor, the company’s sub-brand products are likely well-positioned for attractive manufacturing economics, while also posing a technological appeal to the burgeoning EV market in China.</p><p>NIO likely has another sub-brand under the wraps as well that is speculated to involve offerings starting at RMB 100,000 ($15,000). This would put it in direct competition against SAIC-GM-Wuling, the current EV market leader in China that has captured the likes of budget-sensitive consumers in the tier 3+ markets with its “Hongguang Mini” priced at an impressive $5,000, and its newest “Baojun KiWi” priced at $11,000.</p><h3>The Opportunity</h3><p>China currently houses the largest share of the global EV market, accounting for more than half of global EV sales. EV sales in the country has already reached a penetration rate of more than 20% (or more than a quarter counting hybrid plug-ins), with adoption being most prominent in more affluent tier 1 and tier 2 cities like Shanghai and Beijing. The trends have favored NIO in recent years, as its share of premium EV sales across the tier 1 and tier 2 cities like Shanghai have steadily grown – as of last year, the company’s portfolio of electric premium SUVs grabbed a 23% share of the passenger vehicle market priced above RMB 350,000 ($50,000+) in China’s financial hub. With an expectation that consistent growth trends would spill into tier 3 and tier 4 cities over the longer-term, NIO management has made mass market penetration a key initiative in its growth plan, hence the planned sub-brands.</p><p>Thanks to favorable policy support from the central government, as well as improving range and increasing availability of public charging infrastructure across China, EV sales in the country are starting to gain momentum &#34;beyond the biggest cities.” Over the past two years, tier 2 and tier 3 cities saw the fastest growth in EV sales, from about 4.5% penetration in 2020 to more than 25% in the current year. Meanwhile, demand from tier 4+ cities with a population ranging from 500,000 to under 1 million have also started to pick-up, with EV sales penetration expanding from under 3.5% in 2020 to nearly 20% in the current year.</p><p>The remaining growth headroom observed pertaining to EV demand in tier 3+ cities are expected to bode favorably for NIO by the time its sub-brand rolls out in 2024. Between now and then, public charging infrastructure availability is expected to become more prominent in “smaller cities and towns” while “city-level policies that restrict the number of new license plates issues” start to ease in accordance to the nationwide mandate to support EV adoption and decarbonization, which would make strong tailwinds for NIO’s planned mass market offerings.</p><h3>Risks To Consider</h3><p>Yet, the Chinese EV landscape is also becoming increasingly competitive. And NIO is not the only EV pureplay looking to better capture global market share by expanding into mass market offerings. In addition to BYD and SAIC-GM-Wuling as mentioned in the earlier section, EV pureplay rivals like XPeng (XPEV) have also introduced models in the sub-$30,000 price range, while Tesla’s Model 3 remains a favorite with increasingly attractive pricing.</p><p>As discussed in a previous coverage on NIO, the company risks facing a pricing war in the near-term as competition ramps up, especially as consumer sentiment in the country wanes ahead of mounting macroeconomic uncertainties:</p><blockquote>Despite NIO’s in line 3Q22 sales, the drumbeat is growing louder on concerns over consumer weakness heading into the fourth quarter. COVID-induced mobility restrictions and production disruptions are hampering both supply and demand functions of the company’s profit and growth prospects, souring investors’ confidence in the stock. EV industry leader Tesla’s recent decision to pull the “pricing lever” in the region is also dialing up risks of a pricing war in China’s increasingly competitive EV market. <i>Source: “Is NIO Stock A Buy After Q3’22 Earnings? Keep Your Eyes On COVID Zero.”</i></blockquote><p>But the delayed roll-out of NIO’s mass market offering until 2024 could offer a time cushion for the company to better weather through the near-term industry-specific and macroeconomic headwinds. For one, supply chain constraints stemming from the pandemic and the Russia-Ukraine war – particularly on auto semiconductors – are already showing structural signs of easing. Meanwhile, China’s record-setting household savings of $1.8 trillion YTD, or household savings rate of 30%, accumulated as a pre-emptive measure against looming macroeconomic uncertainties today could also imply a better demand environment in 2024 when cyclical challenges ease. As such, the launch of NIO’s sub-brands scheduled for 2024 could come at an opportune time when the global macroeconomic outlook is expected to improve while the transition to electric continues to gain momentum, offsetting some of the demand risks stemming from increasing competition.</p><h2>Fundamental And Valuation Implications</h2><p>The anticipated growth prospects stemming from NIO’s penetration in mass market opportunities with its planned sub-brands are not going to come at a cheap price. Auto manufacturing is one of the most capital-intensive endeavors out there – especially for those that are vertically integrated.</p><p>Yet, NIO’s “semi-vertically integrated” manufacturing strategy, which involves in-house designed platforms (and ultimately, battery packs) and internal productions at its joint venture facility with Jianghuai Automobile Group (“JAC”) and partly municipal-owned facility at NeoPark, is expected to absorb some of the high ramp-up costs. The anticipated increase in demand for its mass market products is also expected to drive improved volumes to enable better economies of scale, especially if the company adopts a cross-brand platform-sharing strategy, which will likely fast-track its margin expansion trajectory towards and beyond breakeven by mid-decade.</p><p>However, given materialization of said anticipated profits bolstered by NIO’s mass market penetration strategy is still further out into the future, related upside potential may take more time to come into fruition, which inadvertently, means a higher investment risk. This is a particularly critical consideration in today’s market climate for Chinese equities, especially those that are not yet profitable like NIO, given uncertainties spanning regulatory, macroeconomic, and geopolitical challenges.</p><h2><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BYDDY\">BYD</a></h2><h3>Overview Of Sub-Brand Strategy</h3><p>Differing from NIO, BYD is already an established automaker with a sprawling presence across China’s passenger vehicle market (and to a smaller extent, the global commercial vehicle market). Having just transitioned completely from the sale of ICE models to only new energy vehicles including hybrid plug-ins earlier this year, BYD has already taken China’s EV market by storm, with monthly sales by unit consistently exceeding six figures and setting new records. It is also one of the few legacy automakers that have managed to penetrate the burgeoning EV market at a profitable rate within a short period.</p><p>Known for its prowess in the mass market vehicle segment, the legacy Chinese automaker is now planning its debut in the premium EV segment in early 2023 via its first sub-brand, “Yangwang” – a contrast to NIO’s longer-term growth strategy. The automaker is slated to debut a premium off-road electric SUV, dubbed the “R1,” as its first product under the Yangwang sub-brand, which will be priced in the RMB 800,000 to RMB 1.5 million range ($110,300 to $200,000+). Similar to BYD’s current new energy offerings, the Yangwang R1 will be offered in a battery-electric (“BEV”) powertrain and plug-in hybrid (“PHEV”) power-train capable of up to 650 hp, with a five- and seven-seater option, and be the “most expensive BYD ever.”</p><p>The company has also recently announced intentions of another new brand that “specializes in professional and personalized identifies” as it looks to “build up its brand matrix” and better penetrate overseas opportunities across Asia, Europe, Latin America and other markets. Although details on the second sub-brand remain limited, it will likely complement Yangwang and help usher BYD into China’s “luxury SUV and sports car markets…[which] are the two most profitable vehicle segments [that it] does not have exposure to” yet. Given BYD is already profitable, the higher-priced premium offerings will likely further reinforce its margin expansion trajectory into the longer-term, and bolster its competitive advantage against premium rivals in the market.</p><h3>The Opportunity</h3><p>While EV penetration in the more affluent tier 1 and tier 2 cities across China is substantially higher than in smaller cities where lower-priced mass market offerings take a precedent appeal, there is still significant growth headroom remaining in the premium EV segment for BYD. As mentioned in the earlier section, EV penetration in Shanghai already exceeds 50%, while in the broader tier 1 and tier 2 cities it averages more than 36%. Plug-in hybrid SUVs are also of greater appeal, accounting for close to a quarter of China’s new passenger vehicle sales today, while remaining the fastest-growing EV segment, which makes strong tailwinds for BYD’s upcoming Yangwang R1 debut (recall that the R1 comes in both the BEV and PHEV powertrain).</p><p>Market participants also anticipate BYD’s upcoming sub-brands to produce “the kind of EVs fit for the U.S., a market BYD has yet to enter.” This fits with BYD’s overseas aspirations for its passenger EV business over the longer-term, and would be a favorable complement to its existing presence in North America via its commercial EV sales. The U.S. EV market is expected to see a meaningful increase in adoption rates over coming years, thanks to favorable policy support like the latest “Inflation Reduction Act” (“IRA”), as well as broader improvements to EV battery technologies and range capabilities. Specifically, U.S. EV demand is expected to expand at a five-year CAGR of 28% through 2026, with further acceleration into the second half of the decade. Paired with a similar growth outlook in Canada (though at a comparatively nominal volume on a unit basis), Yangwang and other sub-brand offerings could potentially become an overseas share gainer for BYD.</p><h3>Risks To Consider</h3><p>While competition comes to mind as a top risk for automakers, BYD’s reputation as a quality mass market vehicle manufacturer could alleviate some of the said challenges. This is further corroborated by BYD’s pricing power with continued market share gains despite a recent decision to increase its vehicle MSRPs, as opposed to price cuts implemented by Tesla in an attempt to shore up demand.</p><p>Instead, a key concern is BYD’s lack of presence in cutting-edge technological competencies, which premium EVs offered by NIO and Tesla tend to use as key selling points:</p><blockquote>What BYD lacks that others have is more of a digital DNA…BYD is still a hardware company. As good as it is assembling an EV profitably at scale, it hasn’t proven itself to be a tech-driven software-defined technology company. Source: Bloomberg</blockquote><p>While BYD intends for Yangwang to “build a high-end brand with disruptive technologies and products,” there has yet to be any details pertaining to the R1 that would differentiate the premium electric SUV from a digital aspect. Aside from potential ADAS features (which are pretty much standard across premium offerings at this point) speculated from BYD-released images that show the vehicle’s integration of LiDAR sensors, the company has yet to release much information about the vehicle’s performance, range capability, nor technological features. While BYD’s robust balance sheet could fund the development of software capabilities required for differentiation against competing premium offerings, relate innovations would take time to materialize, risking a costly catch-up game in the concentrated premium EV market.</p><h2>Fundamental And Valuation Implications</h2><p>In contrast to NIO, BYD is already a profitable company, with margins set for continued expansion as production ramps up on both its existing and upcoming vehicle models. And as mentioned in the earlier section, BYD’s upcoming foray in China’s premium electric SUV market would be beneficial to its bottom-line given said products would be priced higher to offset near-term ramp-up costs, with greater demand in the lucrative vehicle segment expected to support longer-term margin expansion through scale. With related operating cash flow generation realizable in the immediate term, BYD is also less vulnerable to the investment risks facing NIO as discussed in the earlier section.</p><p>The stock is currently trading at a significant discount of 1.4x forward EV/sales compared to an average of about 4.1x among U.S. counterparts and 1.7x among Chinese EV start-ups. Given its profitable growth prospects both within the immediate- and over the longer-term, BYD makes a reasonable investment at current levels. But like all Chinese equities, BYD faces a slew of risks specific to the cohort, including China’s macroeconomic uncertainties (e.g., property slump, COVID Zero impacts, etc.) and regulatory challenges. Although BYD’s robust balance sheet has made its valuation relatively less vulnerable to the years-long selloff in Chinese equities, existing and potential investors in the stock should remain aware and not overlook said risks.</p><h2>Final Thoughts</h2><p>Based on the foregoing analysis on NIO and BYD’s longer-term market share expansion strategies, both legacy and start-up Chinese EV makers alike show favorable growth prospects as the global transition to electric continues. While converging strategies will likely introduce further competition within the already highly concentrated EV landscape in China, significant opportunities remain across all vehicle and pricing segments, underscoring the still-nascent nature of the EV industry.</p><p>With NIO being an EV upstart that has already established a reputation for making quality and innovative EVs, and BYD being a legacy automaker that has proven a profitable transition to electric is possible, both companies are well-positioned for further market share gains within and beyond the Chinese EV market. This would accordingly support favorable long-term upside potential for both stocks from current levels, especially BYD which boasts better immediate and future fundamental prospects, though macroeconomic, geopolitical, and regulatory risks will remain an overhang on their performance.</p></body></html>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>NIO And BYD Are Converging</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nNIO And BYD Are Converging\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2022-12-07 11:17 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://seekingalpha.com/article/4562669-nio-and-byd-are-converging><strong>Seeking Alpha</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>SummaryNIO Inc. and BYD Company Limited are essentially tales of their own, with one being an EV-pureplay upstart, and the other a legacy ICE-turned-electric automaker with dibs across the auto supply...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4562669-nio-and-byd-are-converging\">Source Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"002594":"比亚迪","BYDDY":"比亚迪ADR","NIO":"蔚来"},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4562669-nio-and-byd-are-converging","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1122736605","content_text":"SummaryNIO Inc. and BYD Company Limited are essentially tales of their own, with one being an EV-pureplay upstart, and the other a legacy ICE-turned-electric automaker with dibs across the auto supply chain.Yet, their paths may be converging as China's EV market opportunities grow.The following analysis will provide an overview of how NIO and BYD's longer-term growth strategies are converging, discuss the risks and opportunities facing each, and gauge their respective valuation implications.While NIO Inc. and BYD Company Limited both started off on a different path when it comes to auto manufacturing, with one being an electric vehicle (“EV”) pureplay start-up and the other being a vertically integrated ICE-turned-electric legacy automaker, they now appear to be converging into each other’s turf as competition ramps up. Not long after NIO announced its intentions to break into the tier 3+ market across China to better serve mass market needs, BYD followed suit with two planned sub-brands to penetrate the premium electric passenger vehicle market.Admittedly, BYD’s market share is substantially larger than NIO’s today – both at home and overseas – while also boasting better fundamentals, which would be supportive of its foray in the premium vehicle segment. Yet, NIO’s penetration into mass-market opportunities could also benefit by driving the volume of scale needed to support its breakeven timeline, which consensus projects to occur by or around mid-decade, while management expects to occur as soon as the third quarter of 2023.The following analysis will go over both Chinese automakers’ respective market share expansion strategies via their planned sub-brands, and gauge the opportunity that exists for both as well as their implications on both stocks’ prospects.NIOOverview Of Sub-Brand StrategyNIO first announced plans for a mass market sub-brand in August 2021, which aligned with its longer-term strategy of building a greater presence in China’s smaller tier 3+ cities and further expand its share of the country’s fast-expanding EV market.As management had discussed during the second quarter, the sub-brand will aim to offer more affordably priced vehicles to drive higher mass-market appeal. The strategic move is expected to help NIO compete for higher market share, especially in the price segment of Tesla’s (TSLA) Model Y/3, while providing “much better service.” Source: “Can NIO Stock Recover in 2022?”The sub-brand, currently expected to launch in 2024, is also expected to be more competitively priced, with vehicle MSRPs in the range of RMB 200,000 ($30,000) to RMB 300,000 ($44,000), taking on a broader cohort of mass market rivals including BYD. The sub-brand’s launch timeline also coincides with the start of production schedule for NIO’s first in-house 800-V battery packs, which would “enable longer ranges and faster charging” compared to general mass market offerings that are currently fitted with 400-V battery packs. NIO also boasts a competitive digital portfolio today that includes in-vehicle AI “NOMI,” “NAD” ADAS, and battery swapping technology that will likely be leveraged by its sub-brands either as an embedded or add-on feature to bolster profit margins. Paired with NIO’s recently launched NT 2.0 vehicle platform, which boasts higher profit margins than its predecessor, the company’s sub-brand products are likely well-positioned for attractive manufacturing economics, while also posing a technological appeal to the burgeoning EV market in China.NIO likely has another sub-brand under the wraps as well that is speculated to involve offerings starting at RMB 100,000 ($15,000). This would put it in direct competition against SAIC-GM-Wuling, the current EV market leader in China that has captured the likes of budget-sensitive consumers in the tier 3+ markets with its “Hongguang Mini” priced at an impressive $5,000, and its newest “Baojun KiWi” priced at $11,000.The OpportunityChina currently houses the largest share of the global EV market, accounting for more than half of global EV sales. EV sales in the country has already reached a penetration rate of more than 20% (or more than a quarter counting hybrid plug-ins), with adoption being most prominent in more affluent tier 1 and tier 2 cities like Shanghai and Beijing. The trends have favored NIO in recent years, as its share of premium EV sales across the tier 1 and tier 2 cities like Shanghai have steadily grown – as of last year, the company’s portfolio of electric premium SUVs grabbed a 23% share of the passenger vehicle market priced above RMB 350,000 ($50,000+) in China’s financial hub. With an expectation that consistent growth trends would spill into tier 3 and tier 4 cities over the longer-term, NIO management has made mass market penetration a key initiative in its growth plan, hence the planned sub-brands.Thanks to favorable policy support from the central government, as well as improving range and increasing availability of public charging infrastructure across China, EV sales in the country are starting to gain momentum \"beyond the biggest cities.” Over the past two years, tier 2 and tier 3 cities saw the fastest growth in EV sales, from about 4.5% penetration in 2020 to more than 25% in the current year. Meanwhile, demand from tier 4+ cities with a population ranging from 500,000 to under 1 million have also started to pick-up, with EV sales penetration expanding from under 3.5% in 2020 to nearly 20% in the current year.The remaining growth headroom observed pertaining to EV demand in tier 3+ cities are expected to bode favorably for NIO by the time its sub-brand rolls out in 2024. Between now and then, public charging infrastructure availability is expected to become more prominent in “smaller cities and towns” while “city-level policies that restrict the number of new license plates issues” start to ease in accordance to the nationwide mandate to support EV adoption and decarbonization, which would make strong tailwinds for NIO’s planned mass market offerings.Risks To ConsiderYet, the Chinese EV landscape is also becoming increasingly competitive. And NIO is not the only EV pureplay looking to better capture global market share by expanding into mass market offerings. In addition to BYD and SAIC-GM-Wuling as mentioned in the earlier section, EV pureplay rivals like XPeng (XPEV) have also introduced models in the sub-$30,000 price range, while Tesla’s Model 3 remains a favorite with increasingly attractive pricing.As discussed in a previous coverage on NIO, the company risks facing a pricing war in the near-term as competition ramps up, especially as consumer sentiment in the country wanes ahead of mounting macroeconomic uncertainties:Despite NIO’s in line 3Q22 sales, the drumbeat is growing louder on concerns over consumer weakness heading into the fourth quarter. COVID-induced mobility restrictions and production disruptions are hampering both supply and demand functions of the company’s profit and growth prospects, souring investors’ confidence in the stock. EV industry leader Tesla’s recent decision to pull the “pricing lever” in the region is also dialing up risks of a pricing war in China’s increasingly competitive EV market. Source: “Is NIO Stock A Buy After Q3’22 Earnings? Keep Your Eyes On COVID Zero.”But the delayed roll-out of NIO’s mass market offering until 2024 could offer a time cushion for the company to better weather through the near-term industry-specific and macroeconomic headwinds. For one, supply chain constraints stemming from the pandemic and the Russia-Ukraine war – particularly on auto semiconductors – are already showing structural signs of easing. Meanwhile, China’s record-setting household savings of $1.8 trillion YTD, or household savings rate of 30%, accumulated as a pre-emptive measure against looming macroeconomic uncertainties today could also imply a better demand environment in 2024 when cyclical challenges ease. As such, the launch of NIO’s sub-brands scheduled for 2024 could come at an opportune time when the global macroeconomic outlook is expected to improve while the transition to electric continues to gain momentum, offsetting some of the demand risks stemming from increasing competition.Fundamental And Valuation ImplicationsThe anticipated growth prospects stemming from NIO’s penetration in mass market opportunities with its planned sub-brands are not going to come at a cheap price. Auto manufacturing is one of the most capital-intensive endeavors out there – especially for those that are vertically integrated.Yet, NIO’s “semi-vertically integrated” manufacturing strategy, which involves in-house designed platforms (and ultimately, battery packs) and internal productions at its joint venture facility with Jianghuai Automobile Group (“JAC”) and partly municipal-owned facility at NeoPark, is expected to absorb some of the high ramp-up costs. The anticipated increase in demand for its mass market products is also expected to drive improved volumes to enable better economies of scale, especially if the company adopts a cross-brand platform-sharing strategy, which will likely fast-track its margin expansion trajectory towards and beyond breakeven by mid-decade.However, given materialization of said anticipated profits bolstered by NIO’s mass market penetration strategy is still further out into the future, related upside potential may take more time to come into fruition, which inadvertently, means a higher investment risk. This is a particularly critical consideration in today’s market climate for Chinese equities, especially those that are not yet profitable like NIO, given uncertainties spanning regulatory, macroeconomic, and geopolitical challenges.BYDOverview Of Sub-Brand StrategyDiffering from NIO, BYD is already an established automaker with a sprawling presence across China’s passenger vehicle market (and to a smaller extent, the global commercial vehicle market). Having just transitioned completely from the sale of ICE models to only new energy vehicles including hybrid plug-ins earlier this year, BYD has already taken China’s EV market by storm, with monthly sales by unit consistently exceeding six figures and setting new records. It is also one of the few legacy automakers that have managed to penetrate the burgeoning EV market at a profitable rate within a short period.Known for its prowess in the mass market vehicle segment, the legacy Chinese automaker is now planning its debut in the premium EV segment in early 2023 via its first sub-brand, “Yangwang” – a contrast to NIO’s longer-term growth strategy. The automaker is slated to debut a premium off-road electric SUV, dubbed the “R1,” as its first product under the Yangwang sub-brand, which will be priced in the RMB 800,000 to RMB 1.5 million range ($110,300 to $200,000+). Similar to BYD’s current new energy offerings, the Yangwang R1 will be offered in a battery-electric (“BEV”) powertrain and plug-in hybrid (“PHEV”) power-train capable of up to 650 hp, with a five- and seven-seater option, and be the “most expensive BYD ever.”The company has also recently announced intentions of another new brand that “specializes in professional and personalized identifies” as it looks to “build up its brand matrix” and better penetrate overseas opportunities across Asia, Europe, Latin America and other markets. Although details on the second sub-brand remain limited, it will likely complement Yangwang and help usher BYD into China’s “luxury SUV and sports car markets…[which] are the two most profitable vehicle segments [that it] does not have exposure to” yet. Given BYD is already profitable, the higher-priced premium offerings will likely further reinforce its margin expansion trajectory into the longer-term, and bolster its competitive advantage against premium rivals in the market.The OpportunityWhile EV penetration in the more affluent tier 1 and tier 2 cities across China is substantially higher than in smaller cities where lower-priced mass market offerings take a precedent appeal, there is still significant growth headroom remaining in the premium EV segment for BYD. As mentioned in the earlier section, EV penetration in Shanghai already exceeds 50%, while in the broader tier 1 and tier 2 cities it averages more than 36%. Plug-in hybrid SUVs are also of greater appeal, accounting for close to a quarter of China’s new passenger vehicle sales today, while remaining the fastest-growing EV segment, which makes strong tailwinds for BYD’s upcoming Yangwang R1 debut (recall that the R1 comes in both the BEV and PHEV powertrain).Market participants also anticipate BYD’s upcoming sub-brands to produce “the kind of EVs fit for the U.S., a market BYD has yet to enter.” This fits with BYD’s overseas aspirations for its passenger EV business over the longer-term, and would be a favorable complement to its existing presence in North America via its commercial EV sales. The U.S. EV market is expected to see a meaningful increase in adoption rates over coming years, thanks to favorable policy support like the latest “Inflation Reduction Act” (“IRA”), as well as broader improvements to EV battery technologies and range capabilities. Specifically, U.S. EV demand is expected to expand at a five-year CAGR of 28% through 2026, with further acceleration into the second half of the decade. Paired with a similar growth outlook in Canada (though at a comparatively nominal volume on a unit basis), Yangwang and other sub-brand offerings could potentially become an overseas share gainer for BYD.Risks To ConsiderWhile competition comes to mind as a top risk for automakers, BYD’s reputation as a quality mass market vehicle manufacturer could alleviate some of the said challenges. This is further corroborated by BYD’s pricing power with continued market share gains despite a recent decision to increase its vehicle MSRPs, as opposed to price cuts implemented by Tesla in an attempt to shore up demand.Instead, a key concern is BYD’s lack of presence in cutting-edge technological competencies, which premium EVs offered by NIO and Tesla tend to use as key selling points:What BYD lacks that others have is more of a digital DNA…BYD is still a hardware company. As good as it is assembling an EV profitably at scale, it hasn’t proven itself to be a tech-driven software-defined technology company. Source: BloombergWhile BYD intends for Yangwang to “build a high-end brand with disruptive technologies and products,” there has yet to be any details pertaining to the R1 that would differentiate the premium electric SUV from a digital aspect. Aside from potential ADAS features (which are pretty much standard across premium offerings at this point) speculated from BYD-released images that show the vehicle’s integration of LiDAR sensors, the company has yet to release much information about the vehicle’s performance, range capability, nor technological features. While BYD’s robust balance sheet could fund the development of software capabilities required for differentiation against competing premium offerings, relate innovations would take time to materialize, risking a costly catch-up game in the concentrated premium EV market.Fundamental And Valuation ImplicationsIn contrast to NIO, BYD is already a profitable company, with margins set for continued expansion as production ramps up on both its existing and upcoming vehicle models. And as mentioned in the earlier section, BYD’s upcoming foray in China’s premium electric SUV market would be beneficial to its bottom-line given said products would be priced higher to offset near-term ramp-up costs, with greater demand in the lucrative vehicle segment expected to support longer-term margin expansion through scale. With related operating cash flow generation realizable in the immediate term, BYD is also less vulnerable to the investment risks facing NIO as discussed in the earlier section.The stock is currently trading at a significant discount of 1.4x forward EV/sales compared to an average of about 4.1x among U.S. counterparts and 1.7x among Chinese EV start-ups. Given its profitable growth prospects both within the immediate- and over the longer-term, BYD makes a reasonable investment at current levels. But like all Chinese equities, BYD faces a slew of risks specific to the cohort, including China’s macroeconomic uncertainties (e.g., property slump, COVID Zero impacts, etc.) and regulatory challenges. Although BYD’s robust balance sheet has made its valuation relatively less vulnerable to the years-long selloff in Chinese equities, existing and potential investors in the stock should remain aware and not overlook said risks.Final ThoughtsBased on the foregoing analysis on NIO and BYD’s longer-term market share expansion strategies, both legacy and start-up Chinese EV makers alike show favorable growth prospects as the global transition to electric continues. While converging strategies will likely introduce further competition within the already highly concentrated EV landscape in China, significant opportunities remain across all vehicle and pricing segments, underscoring the still-nascent nature of the EV industry.With NIO being an EV upstart that has already established a reputation for making quality and innovative EVs, and BYD being a legacy automaker that has proven a profitable transition to electric is possible, both companies are well-positioned for further market share gains within and beyond the Chinese EV market. This would accordingly support favorable long-term upside potential for both stocks from current levels, especially BYD which boasts better immediate and future fundamental prospects, though macroeconomic, geopolitical, and regulatory risks will remain an overhang on their performance.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"BYDDY":0.9,"NIO":0.9,"002594":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":3618,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9965293309,"gmtCreate":1669953644702,"gmtModify":1676538277610,"author":{"id":"3574914526090483","authorId":"3574914526090483","name":"yeelyn18","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ae47c3e96729c68a0234dd22850dfe69","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3574914526090483","authorIdStr":"3574914526090483"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Ye","listText":"Ye","text":"Ye","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9965293309","repostId":"9965299369","repostType":1,"repost":{"id":9965299369,"gmtCreate":1669953365552,"gmtModify":1676538277579,"author":{"id":"3582778356971864","authorId":"3582778356971864","name":"NgKenny","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4fdae3e0bdca8d3a33e7f9d619f0dc88","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3582778356971864","authorIdStr":"3582778356971864"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Qatar, the HOST country has organized a fantastic and a great atmosphere and environment to provide many&nbsp;supreme upper class stadiums for the&nbsp;World Cup 2022.The whole world will be&nbsp;very exciting football to enjoy watching all the good players playing their best skill of football. Surprisingly there were many upset matches that the underdogs went through thelast 16 teams 2nd round. Senegal maybe the underdog to win the World Cup 2022 championship. As for me my favorite country to win the World Cup is Netherlands. In recent World Cups they have lost once in the final and once in the semi-finaland they have never won a World Cup before. I give my full support for Netherlands to be the CHAMPION. Hooray to them. Japan was also playing and performed very well and cannot be underes","listText":"Qatar, the HOST country has organized a fantastic and a great atmosphere and environment to provide many&nbsp;supreme upper class stadiums for the&nbsp;World Cup 2022.The whole world will be&nbsp;very exciting football to enjoy watching all the good players playing their best skill of football. Surprisingly there were many upset matches that the underdogs went through thelast 16 teams 2nd round. Senegal maybe the underdog to win the World Cup 2022 championship. As for me my favorite country to win the World Cup is Netherlands. In recent World Cups they have lost once in the final and once in the semi-finaland they have never won a World Cup before. I give my full support for Netherlands to be the CHAMPION. Hooray to them. Japan was also playing and performed very well and cannot be underes","text":"Qatar, the HOST country has organized a fantastic and a great atmosphere and environment to provide many supreme upper class stadiums for the World Cup 2022.The whole world will be very exciting football to enjoy watching all the good players playing their best skill of football. Surprisingly there were many upset matches that the underdogs went through thelast 16 teams 2nd round. Senegal maybe the underdog to win the World Cup 2022 championship. As for me my favorite country to win the World Cup is Netherlands. In recent World Cups they have lost once in the final and once in the semi-finaland they have never won a World Cup before. I give my full support for Netherlands to be the CHAMPION. Hooray to them. Japan was also playing and performed very well and cannot be underes","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":2,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9965299369","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":0,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":3252,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9962211593,"gmtCreate":1669780636213,"gmtModify":1676538242147,"author":{"id":"3574914526090483","authorId":"3574914526090483","name":"yeelyn18","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ae47c3e96729c68a0234dd22850dfe69","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3574914526090483","authorIdStr":"3574914526090483"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"I","listText":"I","text":"I","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9962211593","repostId":"1130792345","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":3248,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9962390434,"gmtCreate":1669717576928,"gmtModify":1676538227845,"author":{"id":"3574914526090483","authorId":"3574914526090483","name":"yeelyn18","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ae47c3e96729c68a0234dd22850dfe69","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3574914526090483","authorIdStr":"3574914526090483"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"K","listText":"K","text":"K","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":7,"commentSize":4,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9962390434","repostId":"2287354580","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":4306,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9966643098,"gmtCreate":1669525356614,"gmtModify":1676538205014,"author":{"id":"3574914526090483","authorId":"3574914526090483","name":"yeelyn18","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ae47c3e96729c68a0234dd22850dfe69","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3574914526090483","authorIdStr":"3574914526090483"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"K","listText":"K","text":"K","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":2,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9966643098","repostId":"2286321847","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"2286321847","kind":"highlight","pubTimestamp":1669517180,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/2286321847?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2022-11-27 10:46","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Is Sea Stock a Buy After Promising to Slash Expenses?","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2286321847","media":"Motley Fool","summary":"The company is all-in on reaching self-sufficiency as quickly as possible.","content":"<div>\n<p>Shares of Sea Limited, southeast Asia's leading internet company, continue their wild ride. The stock is trading down 75% in 2022 with just over a month left to go. However, following the third-...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://www.fool.com/investing/2022/11/26/is-sea-stock-a-buy-after-promising-to-slash-expens/\">Source Link</a>\n\n</div>\n","source":"fool_stock","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Is Sea Stock a Buy After Promising to Slash Expenses?</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nIs Sea Stock a Buy After Promising to Slash Expenses?\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2022-11-27 10:46 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://www.fool.com/investing/2022/11/26/is-sea-stock-a-buy-after-promising-to-slash-expens/><strong>Motley Fool</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>Shares of Sea Limited, southeast Asia's leading internet company, continue their wild ride. The stock is trading down 75% in 2022 with just over a month left to go. However, following the third-...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://www.fool.com/investing/2022/11/26/is-sea-stock-a-buy-after-promising-to-slash-expens/\">Source Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"SE":"Sea Ltd"},"source_url":"https://www.fool.com/investing/2022/11/26/is-sea-stock-a-buy-after-promising-to-slash-expens/","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2286321847","content_text":"Shares of Sea Limited, southeast Asia's leading internet company, continue their wild ride. The stock is trading down 75% in 2022 with just over a month left to go. However, following the third-quarter earnings update, shares rallied some 40% before giving back some gains as management promised to slash expenses. After a spate of heavy spending to support unprofitable expansion in 2020 and 2021, the company's new goal is to get operations running self-sufficiently as soon as possible.Sea's e-commerce business Shoppee is expected to reach breakeven by the end of 2023, but its profitable video game segment Garena (led by the global hit Free Fire) still struggles as many gamers return to work or school. With a long and hard road ahead of it, is now the time to buy Sea stock?Sea's big shift in thinkingAt times in 2020 and 2021, Sea actually started to turn free-cash-flow positive. But as the pandemic boom in online business activity returned to normal in 2022, Sea's free cash flow turned negative -- to the tune of negative $1.68 billion over the last 12-month stretch.Data by YCharts.The digital entertainment segment is still a moneymaker, though not as much as before. Adjusted EBITDA (or \"earnings before interest, tax, depreciation, and amortization,\" which measures the profitability of business operations) was $290 million on revenue of $893 million, compared to adjusted EBITDA of $334 million on revenue of $900 million in Q2 2022. Engagement in video games, in particular, the main breadwinner Free Fire, remains challenging as the world slowly reopens from early pandemic effects.Issues with video games aside, e-commerce is the real glaring issue for Sea. Led by the Shoppee app in southeast Asia, adjusted EBITDA losses were $496 million in Q3, though that was an improvement from the $648 million adjusted EBITDA loss in the previous quarter. The closely related SeaMoney digital finance segment likewise lost less money in Q3. Adjusted EBITDA was negative $67.7 million, down from the loss of $112 million in Q2 2022.Efforts to further trim the fat include tightening the budget on servers and computer equipment. Office space expansion and remodeling are also taking the backseat, likely due in part to some 7,000 employee layoffs in recent months (reportedly about 10% of the company's workforce). Rather than grow e-commerce as quickly as possible like what was happening over the last two years, the focus for Shoppee in particular will now be getting the existing operation profitable, which is expected by the end of 2023.The result is likely a deceleration in growth for Sea overall going forward. Total revenue was up just 17% year over year in Q3 2022, a far cry from the triple-digit percentage growth reported less than a year ago.Is this the right move for Sea?This shift in focus is absolutely the right decision for Sea. The market stopped rewarding the company for its rapid expansion a while ago. The business traded for well over 20 times trailing 12-month sales this same time in 2021. Now the stock trades for just 2.5 times sales, even as Sea continues to report double-digit percentage expansion. CEO Forrest Li acknowledged this, as he stated on the last earnings call:We believe our strong focus on cash flow and achieving self-sufficiency as much as possible is the right strategy to pursue at this stage, even though we may see no growth or even negative growth in certain operating metrics in the near term. To be very clear, we remain highly confident about the compelling long-term growth prospects of our businesses and the market. Once we achieve self-sufficiency, we will be in a position to decide to reaccelerate growth again in a much more efficient and a long-term sustainable manner.The company's phase of hypergrowth was nice while it lasted, but it wasn't sustainable. As an era of extremely easy money ends with interest rates back on the rise, Sea needs to figure out how to make its online marketplace profitable without the need to tap shareholders for additional cash.Given the market's punishment of Sea in the last year, even a no-growth business would be fine. Investors now only care about profitability. The good news is there's a plan to get there, and meaningful progress is being made toward the breakeven goal within another year's time. And in the meantime, Sea's balance sheet is still in decent shape. Cash and short-term investments totaled $7.3 billion, offset by convertible debt of $4.1 billion.Is the stock a buy? If Sea can indeed get itself out of the red, shares might be really cheap right now at just 2.5 times sales. After all, the company's addressable markets in southeast Asia and Latin America are huge and have really only just begun to adopt many e-commerce services. If Sea can figure out how to make this business sustainable, this might once again be a great long-term investment. But until that happens, this should still be viewed as a high-risk stock. Tread lightly for now after the big post-Q3 earnings rally.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"SE":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":4448,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9966054679,"gmtCreate":1669356709992,"gmtModify":1676538188351,"author":{"id":"3574914526090483","authorId":"3574914526090483","name":"yeelyn18","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ae47c3e96729c68a0234dd22850dfe69","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3574914526090483","authorIdStr":"3574914526090483"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"M","listText":"M","text":"M","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9966054679","repostId":"1139072275","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1139072275","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1669353967,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1139072275?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2022-11-25 13:26","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Is Starbucks’ Growth Strategy Worth Buying Into?","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1139072275","media":"TipRanks","summary":"Story HighlightsStarbucks’ growth momentum appears strong, especially given the current market condi","content":"<div>\n<p>Story HighlightsStarbucks’ growth momentum appears strong, especially given the current market conditions. Nevertheless, investors could still be overpaying for the stock, especially if the ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://www.tipranks.com/news/article/does-starbucks-new-era-of-growth-justify-its-valuation-premium\">Source Link</a>\n\n</div>\n","source":"lsy1606183248679","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Is Starbucks’ Growth Strategy Worth Buying Into?</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nIs Starbucks’ Growth Strategy Worth Buying Into?\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2022-11-25 13:26 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://www.tipranks.com/news/article/does-starbucks-new-era-of-growth-justify-its-valuation-premium><strong>TipRanks</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>Story HighlightsStarbucks’ growth momentum appears strong, especially given the current market conditions. Nevertheless, investors could still be overpaying for the stock, especially if the ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://www.tipranks.com/news/article/does-starbucks-new-era-of-growth-justify-its-valuation-premium\">Source Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"SBUX":"星巴克"},"source_url":"https://www.tipranks.com/news/article/does-starbucks-new-era-of-growth-justify-its-valuation-premium","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1139072275","content_text":"Story HighlightsStarbucks’ growth momentum appears strong, especially given the current market conditions. Nevertheless, investors could still be overpaying for the stock, especially if the macroeconomic headwinds persist.Starbucks (NASDAQ: SBUX) recently posted its Q4 results, ending fiscal 2022 on a high note. More importantly, the company has outlined an optimistic medium-term growth roadmap, which has set the stage for record results in Fiscal Year 2023. That said, I remain cautious about the stock’s elevated valuation levels, which leave little to no margin of safety for investors. Accordingly, I am neutral on the stock.Fiscal 2023 Has Begun with Robust Growth Momentum for StarbucksFollowing exceptional results last year and management’s optimistic outlook, it appears that Starbucks has stepped into fiscal 2023 with robust growth momentum. Specifically, in fiscal Q4 results, Starbucks posted year-over-year revenue growth of 3.2% to a quarterly record of $8.41 billion. This may appear like a soft growth number, but there are three points to note here.Firstly, fiscal Q3 was also another record quarter for the company, indicating further sequential improvements. Secondly, with inflation raging and mortgages on the rise, consumers’ purchasing power is supposed to be on the decline, which in turn should mean declining revenues for a premium coffee brand such as Starbucks. Thus, any growth is actually quite remarkable. Finally, due to Starbucks’ strong international footprint, the company’s sales were impacted by a strong dollar. In constant currency, revenue growth would have actually been even stronger.In North America, where Starbucks’ performance is not impacted by FX headwinds, comparable store sales increased by 11%. The increase was driven by an 8% increase in average tickets and a 1% growth in comparable transactions. What stood out to me was that Starbucks’ average ticket reached a new all-time high once again, with its expansion backed by increased spending on food and the recently implemented strategic pricing actions.I was personally expecting strong food sales growth, but certainly not as high as 18%, which, again, speaks volumes about Starbucks’ brand and management’s execution in diversifying cash flows. In my view, food is going to remain a strong growth catalyst for Starbucks because the pricing of coffee already seems to have arrived at a glass ceiling. Therefore, seeing Starbucks’ new food offerings being well received by customers is another cheerful point.Promising Developments in ChinaAs I mentioned, the company’s international revenues were negatively affected by a stronger dollar. That said, the key metrics related to international sales were quite strong, especially in China, which has become an increasingly important region for Starbucks’ growth prospects.For context, active Starbucks rewards membership in China rose 29% quarter-over-quarter to over 17 million members, while delivery sales, which are higher-margin and should boost profitability, grew 35% year-over-year, now representing more than 24% of sales. These numbers become even more special when we consider that the Chinese market is still being impacted by the Chinese government’s strict Zero COVID policy.Is Starbucks’ Profitability Worsening?Starbucks’ revenue growth and overall sales metrics were quite decisive. However, inflationary forces did offset the growth in revenues. Specifically, Starbucks’ operating margin contracted 250 basis points to 14.3%, mainly due to higher labor expenses, including improved store partner wages.Amid lower margins, Starbucks’ bottom line was also compressed, resulting in adjusted earnings per share coming in at $0.81, down from $0.99 last year. Thus, adjusted earnings per share for the full year landed at $2.96 compared to last year’s $3.20.Nevertheless, I believe that profitability remained largely robust. Fiscal Year 2022’s adjusted earnings per share indicate a decline of just around 10%, despite multiple headwinds negatively affecting the company. Should the macroeconomic environment improve, we should see Starbucks’ profit margins expand quite significantly, given its performance under such pressures.Is SBUX Stock a Buy or Sell, According to Analysts?Turning to Wall Street, Starbucks has a Moderate Buy consensus rating based on 13 Buys and 10 Holds assigned in the past three months. At $100.35, the average Starbucks stock forecast implies a 0.83% upside potential over the next 12 months.Takeaway: SBUX Stock Provides No Margin of Safety for InvestorsBased on Starbucks’ growth estimates, analysts expect EPS to rebound by nearly 15% this year to $3.40. However, this implies a forward P/E of about 29x, which is quite a hefty valuation multiple in the current market environment. On the other hand, Starbucks is expected to keep growing its earnings per share by double-digits in the coming years, which sort of justifies a premium. Nevertheless, investors have little to no margin of safety if the current macroeconomic headwinds persist, which is why I am taking a pass on the stock at its current price.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"SBUX":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":3534,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9968545464,"gmtCreate":1669266069959,"gmtModify":1676538176659,"author":{"id":"3574914526090483","authorId":"3574914526090483","name":"yeelyn18","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ae47c3e96729c68a0234dd22850dfe69","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3574914526090483","authorIdStr":"3574914526090483"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Y","listText":"Y","text":"Y","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9968545464","repostId":"2285108728","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":4020,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9961556899,"gmtCreate":1669000364112,"gmtModify":1676538137412,"author":{"id":"3574914526090483","authorId":"3574914526090483","name":"yeelyn18","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ae47c3e96729c68a0234dd22850dfe69","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3574914526090483","authorIdStr":"3574914526090483"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"K","listText":"K","text":"K","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":5,"commentSize":2,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9961556899","repostId":"1102151273","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1102151273","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1668992478,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1102151273?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2022-11-21 09:01","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Alibaba Q3: Munger Remains Unfazed, Plus 3 Things Not To Overlook","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1102151273","media":"Seeking Alpha","summary":"SummaryAlibaba just reported its Q3 (fiscal year Q2) earnings. The results were solid despite challe","content":"<html><head></head><body><p><b>Summary</b></p><ul><li>Alibaba just reported its Q3 (fiscal year Q2) earnings. The results were solid despite challenges in the past quarter and triggered sharp price rallies.</li><li>In the meantime, the Daily Journal Corp.’s recent 13F shows that its Alibaba position remains unchanged in the past quarter.</li><li>This article focuses on the implications of 3 things from its Q3 earnings report: profitability, capital allocation, and valuation.</li><li>And I can see why Munger remains unfazed.</li></ul><p><b>Q3 recap and investment thesis</b></p><p>Alibaba (NYSE: BABA) just released its Q3 2022earnings report(“ER”). Note that its fiscal quarter is shifted from the calendar quarter (so it is its FY Q2). And in the remainder of this article, I will refer to the calendar quarter consistently. By this time, many of the aspects of its Q3 ER have been detailed by other SA authors already. As a result, I will only provide a brief recap of its Q3 results. Then I will quickly zoom in on three things that are less discussed so far in other SA articles.</p><p>Overall, I view the results as solid, especially considering the challenging operating environments in the past quarter. Its Non-GAAP EPS (referred to on a per ADS basis hereafter) dialed in at $1.82, exceeding consensus estimates by $0.17. Topline came in at $29.12B, representing a +3.0% YoY growth but missing consensus estimates slightly by $490M (about 1.6% on a relative basis). Notably, its cloud segment grew 4% YOY and now represents 10% of the total revenue.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/08d0114344dd757db5d5d21a884dd2b6\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"289\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p>Source: BABA Q3 ER</p><p>The remainder of this article will concentrate on 3 things from its Q3 ER that are less discussed in other articles. Firstly, I will examine its profitability as measured by ROCE (return on capital employed). You will see that its profitability indeed has suffered strong headwinds due to ongoing macro challenges, but still remains at a highly competitive level even when benchmarked against the FAAMG group. Secondly, I will examine its capital allocation. And the picture is similar here. Admittedly, it simply does not enjoy the flexibility it used to even compared to the beginning of the year. But overall, it is still in a strong financial position and can sustainably fund its various growth initiatives. And finally, the valuation is too compressed to ignore in my view.</p><p>Before we dive in, note that the Daily Journal Corp. recently also disclosed its 13F filing. And as shown in the chart below, Alibaba remains as the 3rdlargest position, representing 14.6% of its equity portfolio. And I can see why Munger remains unfazed after we examine the financials more closely next.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/677845cdad0cdf5462cfd630779c29cf\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"368\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p>Source: Dataroma.com</p><p><b>Profitability remains competitive</b></p><p>As detailed in my blog article, for a long-term business owner, return on capital employed (“ROCE”) is the most important metric in my mind. And BABA’s ROCE is shown below. The chart plots its ROCE dating back to 2014 and specifically highlights the changes in its ROCE in 2022 (the last two data points on this chart). As you can see, its profitability indeed has suffered strong headwinds due to ongoing macro challenges. To wit, even as recent as Q1 2022, its ROCE hovered around 97% based on quarterly TTM financials. But due to the various headwinds (both macroeconomic and regulatory as to be elaborated later), its ROCE has contracted substantially to the current level of 62.4% based on the Q3 TTM financials.</p><p>However, BABA’s current ROCE still remains at a highly competitive level even when benchmarked against the FAAMG group as you can see from the second following chart below. As a matter of fact, its current ROCE is only behind Apple (AAPL) in this group.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6edb9f34d10e490e6795015d49dda18e\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"258\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p>Source: author and Seeking Alpha.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d3d4cd52c813e053fa637f73ee468287\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"297\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p>Source: author and Seeking Alpha.</p><p><b>Capital allocation flexibility remains strong too</b></p><p>BABA has always been in a strong financial position. Its financial position may be a bit weaker than it used to be due to its commitment to the common prosperity funds, high tax rates, and regulatory changes. To wit, BABA made a pledge of about $15.5B to the Chinese common prosperity fund in the next five years (so about $3.1B per year). At the same time, its TTM operating cash was more than $30.5B as of Q1 2022. And its operating cash flow has decreased to about $20.1B as of TTM Q3, a decrease of more than $10B.</p><p>However, under the overall scheme of things, it is still in a quite strong position. It is effectively debt-free (total interest expenses are only about $500M), it does not pay a dividend, and its maintenance CAPEX is really low (total depreciation is only about 10% of its operating income). And it carries a sizeable net cash position (about $10.1 per share) as shown in the table below, by far the highest level relative to a few other stocks (I will explain why I picked this set of stocks next).</p><p>And this is a good point to move onto its valuation, particularly the impact of the net cash position on its valuation.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c851f218d7749d4f4d8d17853526a8b5\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"210\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p>Source: author and Seeking Alpha data.</p><p><b>Valuation is even cheaper when adjusted for ROCE</b></p><p>The chart above shows that BABA’s PE is about 11.4x at its current price. Also as aforementioned, there is about $10.0 of cash behind each BABA share, translating into ~11.8% of the current share price. The cash position is actually higher than in Q1 (about $9.3 per share at that time). And adjusted for the cash position, its current PE is only about 10.1x, actually lower than the 11.7x multiple in Q1 despite the decrease in earnings.</p><p>Readers familiar with our approach know that valuation shouldn&#39;t be looked at in isolation. It should be always interpreted together with the quality of the business. And that is what the next chart intends to do. These seemingly random stocks picked for this chart represent some of the largest Berkshire (BRK.A) (BRK.B) holdings, and hence, the green dotted line is what I call a Buffett value line. As detailed in my earlier article:</p><blockquote><i>The Buffett’s value line is a line linking A) the origin (a business that has 0 ROCE should worth O PE), and B) Buffett’s largest holding AAPL (which happens to have the highest ROCE among this group of stocks).</i></blockquote><p>Since you always have the choice to buy AAPL, it makes little sense to buy stocks above this line (except for the need for diversification). As seen, BABA now lies below this line (right next to AbbVie (ABBV), another stock we also hold) by a good margin, suggesting a valuation that is more compressed when adjusted for ROCE than on the surface.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f7b16375acb6efb2b50a0b5d855eabcf\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"397\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p>Source: author and Seeking Alpha data.</p><p><b>Risks and final thoughts</b></p><p>BABA faces many risks. Potential investors should be cautious of the extreme uncertainties here. As detailed by many SA authors (ourselves included), some risks could lead to 100% loss (such as VIE) or large losses (such as delisting). Here, I will limit my discussions to the risks that are more relevant to business fundamentals and operations. I am cautiously optimistic about the company’s business operation outlook in the next 1 or 2 years. The impact of the COVID-19 restrictions in China remains the largest risk in my view. With China’s Zero COVID policy still in place, customer growth in its China Commerce division (TaoBao and Tmall, to name a few) faces an uncertain recovery path. And so do the overall economic conditions in the country.</p><p>To conclude, this article focused on 3 things in BABA’s Q3 ER that are less discussed by other SA authors so far. Its profitability, as measured by ROCE, indeed has suffered strong headwinds, shrinking from ~100% in Q1 to the current 62%. But a ROCE of around 62% is still highly competitive even compared to the FAAMG stocks. Such a robust ROCE, when combined with its capital allocation flexibility, offers healthy growth prospects. For example, its International Commerce Retail segment, including Lazada and AliExpress, offers plenty of upsides. And finally, the valuation, especially when adjusted for its ROCE and sizable cash position, is simply too compressed to make sense the way I see it.</p></body></html>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Alibaba Q3: Munger Remains Unfazed, Plus 3 Things Not To Overlook</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nAlibaba Q3: Munger Remains Unfazed, Plus 3 Things Not To Overlook\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2022-11-21 09:01 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://seekingalpha.com/article/4559273-alibaba-stock-q3-earnings-munger-remains-unfazed><strong>Seeking Alpha</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>SummaryAlibaba just reported its Q3 (fiscal year Q2) earnings. The results were solid despite challenges in the past quarter and triggered sharp price rallies.In the meantime, the Daily Journal Corp.’...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4559273-alibaba-stock-q3-earnings-munger-remains-unfazed\">Source Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"09988":"阿里巴巴-W","BABA":"阿里巴巴"},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4559273-alibaba-stock-q3-earnings-munger-remains-unfazed","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1102151273","content_text":"SummaryAlibaba just reported its Q3 (fiscal year Q2) earnings. The results were solid despite challenges in the past quarter and triggered sharp price rallies.In the meantime, the Daily Journal Corp.’s recent 13F shows that its Alibaba position remains unchanged in the past quarter.This article focuses on the implications of 3 things from its Q3 earnings report: profitability, capital allocation, and valuation.And I can see why Munger remains unfazed.Q3 recap and investment thesisAlibaba (NYSE: BABA) just released its Q3 2022earnings report(“ER”). Note that its fiscal quarter is shifted from the calendar quarter (so it is its FY Q2). And in the remainder of this article, I will refer to the calendar quarter consistently. By this time, many of the aspects of its Q3 ER have been detailed by other SA authors already. As a result, I will only provide a brief recap of its Q3 results. Then I will quickly zoom in on three things that are less discussed so far in other SA articles.Overall, I view the results as solid, especially considering the challenging operating environments in the past quarter. Its Non-GAAP EPS (referred to on a per ADS basis hereafter) dialed in at $1.82, exceeding consensus estimates by $0.17. Topline came in at $29.12B, representing a +3.0% YoY growth but missing consensus estimates slightly by $490M (about 1.6% on a relative basis). Notably, its cloud segment grew 4% YOY and now represents 10% of the total revenue.Source: BABA Q3 ERThe remainder of this article will concentrate on 3 things from its Q3 ER that are less discussed in other articles. Firstly, I will examine its profitability as measured by ROCE (return on capital employed). You will see that its profitability indeed has suffered strong headwinds due to ongoing macro challenges, but still remains at a highly competitive level even when benchmarked against the FAAMG group. Secondly, I will examine its capital allocation. And the picture is similar here. Admittedly, it simply does not enjoy the flexibility it used to even compared to the beginning of the year. But overall, it is still in a strong financial position and can sustainably fund its various growth initiatives. And finally, the valuation is too compressed to ignore in my view.Before we dive in, note that the Daily Journal Corp. recently also disclosed its 13F filing. And as shown in the chart below, Alibaba remains as the 3rdlargest position, representing 14.6% of its equity portfolio. And I can see why Munger remains unfazed after we examine the financials more closely next.Source: Dataroma.comProfitability remains competitiveAs detailed in my blog article, for a long-term business owner, return on capital employed (“ROCE”) is the most important metric in my mind. And BABA’s ROCE is shown below. The chart plots its ROCE dating back to 2014 and specifically highlights the changes in its ROCE in 2022 (the last two data points on this chart). As you can see, its profitability indeed has suffered strong headwinds due to ongoing macro challenges. To wit, even as recent as Q1 2022, its ROCE hovered around 97% based on quarterly TTM financials. But due to the various headwinds (both macroeconomic and regulatory as to be elaborated later), its ROCE has contracted substantially to the current level of 62.4% based on the Q3 TTM financials.However, BABA’s current ROCE still remains at a highly competitive level even when benchmarked against the FAAMG group as you can see from the second following chart below. As a matter of fact, its current ROCE is only behind Apple (AAPL) in this group.Source: author and Seeking Alpha.Source: author and Seeking Alpha.Capital allocation flexibility remains strong tooBABA has always been in a strong financial position. Its financial position may be a bit weaker than it used to be due to its commitment to the common prosperity funds, high tax rates, and regulatory changes. To wit, BABA made a pledge of about $15.5B to the Chinese common prosperity fund in the next five years (so about $3.1B per year). At the same time, its TTM operating cash was more than $30.5B as of Q1 2022. And its operating cash flow has decreased to about $20.1B as of TTM Q3, a decrease of more than $10B.However, under the overall scheme of things, it is still in a quite strong position. It is effectively debt-free (total interest expenses are only about $500M), it does not pay a dividend, and its maintenance CAPEX is really low (total depreciation is only about 10% of its operating income). And it carries a sizeable net cash position (about $10.1 per share) as shown in the table below, by far the highest level relative to a few other stocks (I will explain why I picked this set of stocks next).And this is a good point to move onto its valuation, particularly the impact of the net cash position on its valuation.Source: author and Seeking Alpha data.Valuation is even cheaper when adjusted for ROCEThe chart above shows that BABA’s PE is about 11.4x at its current price. Also as aforementioned, there is about $10.0 of cash behind each BABA share, translating into ~11.8% of the current share price. The cash position is actually higher than in Q1 (about $9.3 per share at that time). And adjusted for the cash position, its current PE is only about 10.1x, actually lower than the 11.7x multiple in Q1 despite the decrease in earnings.Readers familiar with our approach know that valuation shouldn't be looked at in isolation. It should be always interpreted together with the quality of the business. And that is what the next chart intends to do. These seemingly random stocks picked for this chart represent some of the largest Berkshire (BRK.A) (BRK.B) holdings, and hence, the green dotted line is what I call a Buffett value line. As detailed in my earlier article:The Buffett’s value line is a line linking A) the origin (a business that has 0 ROCE should worth O PE), and B) Buffett’s largest holding AAPL (which happens to have the highest ROCE among this group of stocks).Since you always have the choice to buy AAPL, it makes little sense to buy stocks above this line (except for the need for diversification). As seen, BABA now lies below this line (right next to AbbVie (ABBV), another stock we also hold) by a good margin, suggesting a valuation that is more compressed when adjusted for ROCE than on the surface.Source: author and Seeking Alpha data.Risks and final thoughtsBABA faces many risks. Potential investors should be cautious of the extreme uncertainties here. As detailed by many SA authors (ourselves included), some risks could lead to 100% loss (such as VIE) or large losses (such as delisting). Here, I will limit my discussions to the risks that are more relevant to business fundamentals and operations. I am cautiously optimistic about the company’s business operation outlook in the next 1 or 2 years. The impact of the COVID-19 restrictions in China remains the largest risk in my view. With China’s Zero COVID policy still in place, customer growth in its China Commerce division (TaoBao and Tmall, to name a few) faces an uncertain recovery path. And so do the overall economic conditions in the country.To conclude, this article focused on 3 things in BABA’s Q3 ER that are less discussed by other SA authors so far. Its profitability, as measured by ROCE, indeed has suffered strong headwinds, shrinking from ~100% in Q1 to the current 62%. But a ROCE of around 62% is still highly competitive even compared to the FAAMG stocks. Such a robust ROCE, when combined with its capital allocation flexibility, offers healthy growth prospects. For example, its International Commerce Retail segment, including Lazada and AliExpress, offers plenty of upsides. And finally, the valuation, especially when adjusted for its ROCE and sizable cash position, is simply too compressed to make sense the way I see it.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"BABA":0.9,"09988":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1789,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9961205770,"gmtCreate":1668962868991,"gmtModify":1676538132327,"author":{"id":"3574914526090483","authorId":"3574914526090483","name":"yeelyn18","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ae47c3e96729c68a0234dd22850dfe69","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3574914526090483","authorIdStr":"3574914526090483"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Ok","listText":"Ok","text":"Ok","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":2,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9961205770","repostId":"2284038371","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"2284038371","kind":"highlight","pubTimestamp":1668918242,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/2284038371?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2022-11-20 12:24","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Qualcomm Vs. Nvidia: The Better Buy Might Shock You","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2284038371","media":"Seeking Alpha","summary":"Do you dream of retiring in comfort or even splendor? Who doesn't?!Do you wish your retirement stand","content":"<html><head></head><body><p>Do you dream of retiring in comfort or even splendor? Who doesn&#39;t?!</p><p>Do you wish your retirement standard of living could be 100% free from the market&#39;s crazy gyrations? I know I do.</p><p>Does the idea of being able to count on steadily growing income in all market, economic, inflation, and interest rate conditions, sound appealing? It does to me.</p><p>Well then blue-chip dividend investing might be just what you&#39;re looking for.</p><p>When you hear &#34;dividend investing&#34; you probably think of boring, mature, and stable businesses like Altria (MO), Verizon (VZ) or Pepsi (PEP).</p><p>And while those are indeed wonderful ways to earn generous, very safe, and steadily growing income today, if you want to maximize long-term retirement income there is no better way than combining high-yield and fast-growth.</p><p>Why? Let&#39;s consider the examples of two fast-growing dividend chip stocks, QUALCOMM Incorporated (NASDAQ:QCOM) and NVIDIA Corporation (NASDAQ:NVDA).</p><p>Let&#39;s see what happens when we combine high-yield with fast-growth.</p><h4>Historical Total Returns Since 2011</h4><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5abab739c65390aec9ecc4d8eb0e567b\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"185\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Portfolio Visualizer Premium</p><p>Combining the world&#39;s best high-yield and growth exchange-traded funds (&#34;ETFs&#34;) with the growth and ultra-yield blue-chips created a far better performing portfolio over the last 11 years.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2027ec3b24edf389edb7de640c5e8ef0\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"125\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Portfolio Visualizer Premium</p><p>But more importantly for income investors, it also delivered superior income over time.</p><h4>Income Growth Rich Retirement Dreams Are Made Of</h4><p></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/68784dfa5159ea8211a71a811b27e419\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"253\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Portfolio Visualizer Premium</p><h4>Cumulative Dividends Since 2012: Per $1,000 Initial Investment</h4><table><colgroup></colgroup><tbody><tr><td><b>Metric</b></td><td><b>S&amp;P 500</b></td><td><b>SCHD</b></td><td><b>SCHD, QQQ, ENB, MO, NVDA, QCOM</b></td></tr><tr><td>Total Dividends</td><td>$471</td><td>$785</td><td>$1,177</td></tr><tr><td><b>Total Inflation-Adjusted Dividends</b></td><td><b>$359.54</b></td><td><b>$599.24</b></td><td><b>$898.47</b></td></tr><tr><td><b>Annualized Income Growth Rate</b></td><td><b>9.0%</b></td><td><b>15.3%</b></td><td><b>27.9%</b></td></tr><tr><td>Total Income/Initial Investment %</td><td>0.47</td><td>0.79</td><td>1.18</td></tr><tr><td><b>Inflation-Adjusted Income/Initial Investment %</b></td><td><b>0.36</b></td><td><b>0.60</b></td><td><b>0.90</b></td></tr><tr><td><b>More Inflation-Adjusted Income Than S&amp;P</b></td><td><b>NA</b></td><td><b>1.67</b></td><td><b>2.50</b></td></tr><tr><td><b>Starting Yield</b></td><td><b>2.5%</b></td><td><b>3.2%</b></td><td><b>2.7%</b></td></tr><tr><td>Today&#39;s Annual Dividend Return On Your Starting Investment (Yield On Cost)</td><td>5.9%</td><td>13.3%</td><td>31.7%</td></tr><tr><td><b>2022 Inflation-Adjusted Annual Dividend Return On Your Starting Investment (Inflation-Adjusted Yield On Cost)</b></td><td><b>4.5%</b></td><td><b>10.2%</b></td><td><b>24.2%</b></td></tr></tbody></table><p><i>(Source: Portfolio Visualizer Premium)</i></p><p>By combining yield and growth over the last 10 year income investors have enjoyed 28% annual income growth, 2X better than Schwab U.S. Dividend Equity ETF (SCHD), and 3X better than the S&amp;P 500 (SP500).</p><p>They&#39;ve gotten back 90% of their initial investment in inflation-adjusted dividends, and enjoyed 2.5X more income than the S&amp;P 500 and 50% more income than SCHD alone.</p><p>And for every $1 invested in 2011 they are now getting $.24 in annual inflation-adjusted dividends, and that&#39;s growing exponentially each year.</p><ul><li>SCHD investors are getting $0.1 in annual income per $1 investment</li><li>S&amp;P 500 investors $0.05.</li></ul><p>Ok, so that&#39;s fine for those with 10+ years to invest, but surely retirees should stick to high-yield only right? WRONG!</p><p>Unless you expect to drop dead in 10 years let&#39;s not forget that retirements last a long time.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/872a8106a46bdef537bd2736d27566c0\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"406\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Hamilton Project</p><p>22% of U.S. men can expect to live to 90 and 34% of woman.</p><p>In other words, even if you&#39;re already retired chances are very good that you have a 10+ year, or even 30 to 40 year time horizon.</p><p>And that&#39;s where the power of fast dividend compounding really shines.</p><p>How powerful is hyper-dividend compounding over 35 years?</p><p><b>MO + LOW Cumulative Dividends Since 1985 Per $1,000 Initial Investment </b></p><table><colgroup></colgroup><tbody><tr><td><b>Metric</b></td><td><b>Altria</b></td><td><b>Lowe&#39;s</b></td><td><b>Altria + Lowe&#39;s</b></td></tr><tr><td>Total Dividends</td><td>$282,584</td><td>$37,611</td><td>$286,519</td></tr><tr><td><b>Total Inflation-Adjusted Dividends</b></td><td><b>$100,563.70</b></td><td><b>$13,384.70</b></td><td><b>$101,964.06</b></td></tr><tr><td>Annualized Income Growth Rate</td><td>18.8%</td><td>18.2%</td><td>21.7%</td></tr><tr><td>Total Income/Initial Investment %</td><td>282.58</td><td>37.61</td><td>286.52</td></tr><tr><td>Inflation-Adjusted Income/Initial Investment %</td><td>100.56</td><td>13.38</td><td>101.96</td></tr><tr><td>More Inflation-Adjusted Income Than Altria</td><td>NA</td><td>0.13</td><td>1.01</td></tr><tr><td>Starting Yield</td><td>4.8%</td><td>1.4%</td><td>3.0%</td></tr><tr><td>Today&#39;s Annual Dividend Return On Your Starting Investment (Yield On Cost)</td><td>2774.0%</td><td>682.5%</td><td>4350.4%</td></tr><tr><td><i><b>Today&#39;s Inflation-Adjusted Annual Dividend Return On Your Starting Investment (Inflation-Adjusted Yield On Cost)</b></i></td><td><i><b>987.2%</b></i></td><td><i><b>242.9%</b></i></td><td><i><b>1548.2%</b></i></td></tr></tbody></table><p><i>(Source: Portfolio Visualizer Premium)</i></p><p>You can enjoy 100X your initial investment in inflation-adjusted income and achieve truly mind boggling income by combining ultra-yield with hyper-dividend growth.</p><p>And guess what? Combining yield + hyper-growth, even without dividends can be even more powerful.</p><p><b>MO + AMZN Cumulative Dividends Since 1998 Per $1,000 Initial Investment </b></p><table><colgroup></colgroup><tbody><tr><td><b>Metric</b></td><td><b>Altria</b></td><td><b>Altria + Amazon</b></td></tr><tr><td>Total Dividends</td><td>$3,034.00</td><td>$101,408.00</td></tr><tr><td><b>Total Inflation-Adjusted Dividends</b></td><td><b>$1,657.92</b></td><td><b>$55,414.21</b></td></tr><tr><td><b>Annualized Income Growth Rate</b></td><td><b>3.31%</b></td><td><b>27.96%</b></td></tr><tr><td>Total Income/Initial Investment %</td><td>3.034</td><td>101.408</td></tr><tr><td>Inflation-Adjusted Income/Initial Investment %</td><td>1.657923497</td><td>55.41420765</td></tr><tr><td><b>More Inflation-Adjusted Income Than Altria</b></td><td><b>NA</b></td><td><b>33.4</b></td></tr><tr><td><b>Starting Yield</b></td><td><b>3.80%</b></td><td><b>4.10%</b></td></tr><tr><td>Today&#39;s Annual Dividend Return On Your Starting Investment (Yield On Cost)</td><td>8.30%</td><td>1523.50%</td></tr><tr><td><b>2022 Inflation-Adjusted Annual Dividend Return On Your Starting Investment (Inflation-Adjusted Yield On Cost)</b></td><td><b>4.54%</b></td><td><b>832.51%</b></td></tr></tbody></table><p><i>(Source: Portfolio Visualizer Premium) MO&#39;s dividend growth is low because of the 2007 and 2008 spin-offs. </i></p><p>Had you bought both AMZN and MO back in 1997, reinvested dividends, and rebalanced annually, today you&#39;ve received 33X more inflation-adjusted income over the last 24 years.</p><p>28% annual income growth means a 208X higher inflation-adjusted yield on cost.</p><p>Income growth over time tends to track total returns, so you want to make sure that you&#39;re dividend portfolio is likely to generate strong returns. Not just to keep up with inflation (2.3% long-term according to the bond market).</p><p>You want your standard of living to keep rising in retirement, no matter how long you live.</p><p>And that&#39;s where growth stocks like QCOM and NVDA can help.</p><p>Several members have asked for an update on those chip titans and after carefully examining both companies most recent fundamentals I have come to a surprising conclusion.</p><p>At the moment, Nvidia is the far better chip dividend stock to buy, for anyone looking to maximize long-term income. Let me show you why.</p><h2>Qualcomm: A Wonderful World-Beater Facing A Slower Growth Future</h2><p></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/67fe0662e4bfe81da07f04ec434355c1\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"458\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Ycharts</p><p>Chip makers are up 26% in the last month, though that&#39;s only after getting crushed in a ferocious bear market.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/79d69773b50a5e03a69596f13a83839f\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"209\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Portfolio Visualizer Premium</p><p>Nvidia fell as much as 63% in this bear market (so far). That&#39;s its 3rd worst bear market in history.</p><p></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9d99f60aeb036e67477e9669c4db6f92\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"208\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Portfolio Visualizer Premium</p><p>QCOM has fallen as much as 37% in this bear market, also it&#39;s 3rd worst bear market.</p><blockquote>Smartphone Weakness Finally Catches Up to Qualcomm As Inventories Build</blockquote><blockquote>Qualcomm’s guidance includes an estimated negative impact of about $2 billion in revenue due to weaker demand, foreign exchange headwinds, and excess inventories.&#34; - Morningstar</blockquote><p>One year ago, chip makers were the darlings of Wall Street. The Pandemic supply chain disruptions caused a chip shortage, while record $30 trillion in global stimulus caused a boom in demand for physical goods. Many of which require computer chips.</p><p>Some in the industry were even talking about a permanent industry shift, from cyclical boom and bust cycles, to a world in which chip makers could deliver steady, tech utility like secular growth.</p><p>Well, scratch that idea. It turns out chips are still a cyclical industry and smartphone demand is falling rapidly as the global economy weakens.</p><ul><li><h3>Samsung’s profit drops by more than 30% on weakening memory chip demand</h3></li></ul><blockquote>Qualcomm said it expects its mobile-phone handset business to fall In &#34;a low double-digit percentage range&#34; this year from last year. The company had earlier forecast a &#34;mid-single-digit percentage decline&#34; from 2021.&#34; - Seeking Alpha</blockquote><p>As early as Q2 QCOM&#39;s sales were soaring 36% on the back of strong smartphone demand.</p><p>Now they are expected to decline and so are earnings.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ce66de408aab5b717a5b2bb68b0810e5\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"473\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>FactSet Research Terminal</p><p>After exploding higher during the pandemic, QCOM&#39;s earnings are expected to:</p><ul><li>fall 8% in 2023</li><li>grow 11% in 2024</li><li>2% EPS growth from 2022 to 2024.</li></ul><p>QCOM&#39;s licensing business, which generates incredible 73% operating margins, isn&#39;t expected to grow in the future, though its 263,708 patents are still expected to mint free cash flow for years to come.</p><p>At least in the short-term analysts growth outlooks have dimmed for QCOM which is now expected to grow around 8% over the long-term, after we get past the 2023 recession.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ac98516ffd9c404ce1f26b009c14b7be\" tg-width=\"165\" tg-height=\"230\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>FAST Graphs, FactSet<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6bfc4e00ba39fff6f4d44310dcc87e53\" tg-width=\"161\" tg-height=\"222\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>FAST Graphs, FactSet</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/53aa912a1d243b464b584069d100822f\" tg-width=\"154\" tg-height=\"223\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>FAST Graphs, FactSet<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a5085ebb2648b58f1f0759749655f78d\" tg-width=\"151\" tg-height=\"227\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>FAST Graphs, FactSet</p><p>Is QCOM likely to actually grow at 8% over time? Which would make the total return outlook rather uninspiring?</p><table><colgroup></colgroup><tbody><tr><td>Investment Strategy</td><td>Yield</td><td>LT Consensus Growth</td><td>LT Consensus Total Return Potential</td><td>Long-Term Risk-Adjusted Expected Return</td><td>Long-Term Inflation And Risk-Adjusted Expected Returns</td><td>Years To Double Your Inflation &amp; Risk-Adjusted Wealth</td><td><p>10-Year Inflation And Risk-Adjusted Expected Return</p></td></tr><tr><td>Nasdaq</td><td>0.8%</td><td>11.8%</td><td>12.6%</td><td>8.8%</td><td>6.5%</td><td>11.0</td><td>1.88</td></tr><tr><td><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/SCHD\">Schwab US Dividend Equity ETF</a></td><td>3.6%</td><td>8.5%</td><td>12.1%</td><td>8.4%</td><td>6.1%</td><td>11.8</td><td>1.81</td></tr><tr><td>Dividend Aristocrats</td><td>2.6%</td><td>8.5%</td><td>11.1%</td><td>7.8%</td><td>5.4%</td><td>13.2</td><td>1.70</td></tr><tr><td>S&amp;P 500</td><td>1.8%</td><td>8.5%</td><td>10.3%</td><td>7.2%</td><td>4.9%</td><td>14.8</td><td>1.61</td></tr><tr><td><b>Qualcomm</b></td><td><b>2.4%</b></td><td><b>7.8%</b></td><td><b>10.2%</b></td><td><b>7.1%</b></td><td><b>4.8%</b></td><td><b>15.0</b></td><td><b>1.60</b></td></tr></tbody></table><p><i>(Source: DK Research Terminal, FactSet)</i></p><p>If analysts are right, then QCOM might merely match the market going forward.</p><p>But I don&#39;t actually expect QCOM to grow at just 8% in the future, and here are two reasons why.</p><p></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/30bdacaec1f98fc2eb5d92a3eb153e11\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"159\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Investor presentation</p><p>QCOM&#39;s addressable market is expected to grow from $100 billion per year (43% market share) to $700 billion in the next decade. QCOM is diversifying into cloud computing, driverless cars, and the internet of things or IOT.</p><p>This makes me think that the recent decline in growth outlook is due to the recent cyclical downturn, which often happens with chip makers.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9747d6d688ce9297cc0103ae347c27e2\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"453\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Ycharts</p><p>However, in the short-term QCOM investors are going to have to be patient, because the recent face-ripping rally has reduced the total return potential for the next few years.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/befa76d7c9d62162913273291a116352\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"457\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Ycharts</p><p>QCOM has rallied 21% off its November 3rd lows, and combined with a weak global growth outlook for 2023, means that short-term growth prospects are rather weak.</p><p>But that doesn&#39;t mean that QCOM isn&#39;t a potentially attractive buy.</p><ul><li>fair value: $163.92</li><li>current price: $126.02</li><li><b>discount to fair value: 23%</b></li><li><b>DK rating: potentially strong buy.</b></li></ul><p></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5d424fe27b124f6e474c19d42ac832ae\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"368\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>FactSet Research Terminal</p><p>QCOM is trading at 11.4X consensus trough earnings, and just 9.3X cash-adjusted trough earnings.</p><p>That means it&#39;s pricing in approximately 1.6% CAGR long-term growth, far below the 7.8% analysts currently expect.</p><h4><b>Qualcomm 2024 Consensus Return Potential </b></h4><p></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9077fd745b5fe7442c68b30862a3eaa2\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"274\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>FAST Graphs, FactSet</p><p>Which means that if QCOM grows as expected and returns to historical market-determined fair value it could deliver Buffett-like 19% annual returns over the next three years.</p><ul><li>about 2X the S&amp;P consensus</li></ul><h4><b>Qualcomm 2028 Consensus Return Potential</b></h4><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0558e4ce2c146ab3b7ce7239e041cd2d\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"303\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>FAST Graphs, FactSet</p><p>Even with just 3.5% annual EPS growth expected through 2028, QCOM could more than double your money, delivering 14% annual returns, about 2X the S&amp;P consensus.</p><p>Or to put another way, if you buy QCOM today, you get an Ultra-SWAN quality dividend growth powerhouse, that could more than double your money as we wait to see if QCOM&#39;s growth outlook improves in the future.</p><p></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3196bed203f1ac1f0e409a8c19f29a3f\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"94\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>FAST Graphs, FActSet</p><p>QCOM has been paying a dividend for 19 consecutive years, and raised it every year. The dividend growth rate has been a stellar 20% annually and its delivered close to 14% annual returns.</p><ul><li>the current five year consensus return forecast.</li></ul><p>I think long-term QCOM should be able to continue delivering 13% to 14% long-term returns, which makes it worth buying today, or at least holding it if you already own it.</p><ul><li>13% to 14% long-term returns is better than SCHD, the S&amp;P, dividend aristocrats, and the Nasdaq.</li></ul><h4>Qualcomm Investment Decision Score</h4><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4e9bd4292ef2e7e5731cd633b4998777\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"248\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>DK<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/37f29c106559f4ad320cb69a3c28da63\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"326\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Dividend Kings Automated Investment Decision Tool</p><p>QCOM might not be a table-pounding buy compared to the S&amp;P 500, but it&#39;s still a satisfactory one that&#39;s offering:</p><ul><li>superior and safer yield</li><li>a faster-growing dividend</li><li>better medium-term total returns</li><li>66% better risk-adjusted expected returns</li><li>30% higher income potential over the next five years than the S&amp;P</li></ul><h2>NVIDIA: A Chip Specialist Facing A Cyclical Downturn But Whose Hyper-Growth Outlook Remains Intact</h2><p>NVDA fell off a cliff when the Biden Administration announced export controls on chips to China.</p><p>Fortunately the company adapted quickly and has already announced new export control compliant chips.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e9acc1f5a652b10b06cb686a4f3128c0\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"443\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Ycharts</p><p>News like that, along with the overall &#34;risk on&#34; sentiment in stocks, has helped drive NVDA up 44% in recent weeks.</p><p>This isn&#39;t surprising given that NVDA is a very volatile stock, historically 2.2X more volatile than the S&amp;P 500.</p><h4>Nvidia Rolling Returns Since Feb 1999 IPO</h4><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3d3defbbc0997112ddbde7a6f2bca1a0\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"150\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Portfolio Visualizer Premium</p><p>Gut churning volatility cuts both ways, with 90% crashes followed by 751% one year rallies.</p><p>From bear market lows NVDA is capable of:</p><ul><li>140% annual returns for 3 years = 13.8X in 3 years</li><li>89% annual returns for five years = 24.1X in five years</li><li>81% annual returns for seven years = 64.9X in seven years</li><li>47% annual returns for 10 years = 92.4X in 10 years</li><li>34% annual returns for 15 years = 77.1X in 15 years.</li></ul><p>The question investors need answered today, is what does NVDA&#39;s long-term outlook like now that the U.S. and China are in an economic cold war?</p><blockquote>Nvidia&#39;s Data Center Business Drives the Firm&#39;s Wide Moat Rating</blockquote><blockquote>Nvidia is the top designer of discrete graphics processing units that enhance the visual experience on computing platforms. The firm&#39;s chips are used in a variety of end markets, including high-end PCs for gaming and data centers.&#34; - Morningstar</blockquote><p>NVDA might have started out focused on gaming PCs, but it&#39;s now at the forefront of some of the world&#39;s best secular growth trends.</p><ul><li>cloud computing</li><li>AI</li><li>driverless cars</li><li>automation.</li></ul><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/dc6801dafd36eaa41110bce2bee51efb\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"318\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>investor presentation</p><p>Management estimates NVDA&#39;s total addressable market is $1 trillion per year (2.7% market share) and those markets are the backbone of the entire $100 trillion global economy.</p><blockquote>The acquisition of Mellanox has helped diversify Nvidia’s end-market exposure, and we suspect the firm will derive over half of revenue from the data center segment going forward, which should help mitigate some of the volatility Nvidia has faced in its gaming and cryptocurrency mining-related sales over the past few years.&#34; - Morningstar</blockquote><p>NVDA has been diversifying away from gaming for years, and Morningstar thinks they could soon get over 50% of sales from datacenters, a far more stable business.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d6d8a7f017af371ef6cc2091c3cce253\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"167\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>FactSet Research Terminal</p><p>Analysts are even more bullish on the datacenter business, expecting it to triple in the next five years.</p><ul><li>25% annual growth rate.</li></ul><p>By 2027 analysts think 73% of NVDA&#39;s sales will be coming from datacenters.</p><p>Why? Because datacenters are enterprise and big businesses don&#39;t mind spending millions on the best hardware if it saves them money in the long-term.</p><p>What kind of businesses are NVDA&#39;s datacenter customers?</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/19525a0bcbf34d91c2eab5c4b5987e45\" tg-width=\"518\" tg-height=\"810\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>investor presentation</p><p>NVDA&#39;s datacenter customers have deep pockets and are expected to help drive incredible long-term growth. How incredible?</p><p></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/117a0f71158d9a01f27455ae2f8895f5\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"204\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>FactSet Research Terminal</p><p>How about tripling earnings in five years, and 18% long-term earnings growth?</p><ul><li>20% to 78% CAGR growth over the last 20 years.</li></ul><p>Given NVDA&#39;s massive $1 trillion addressable market, and dominance in advanced GPUs (the &#34;super chips&#34; that drive the future) I consider 18% long-term growth a reasonable estimate from all 46 analysts who cover it.</p><p>What does that potentially mean for investors?</p><table><colgroup></colgroup><tbody><tr><td>Investment Strategy</td><td>Yield</td><td>LT Consensus Growth</td><td>LT Consensus Total Return Potential</td><td>Long-Term Risk-Adjusted Expected Return</td><td>Long-Term Inflation And Risk-Adjusted Expected Returns</td><td>Years To Double Your Inflation &amp; Risk-Adjusted Wealth</td><td><p>10-Year Inflation And Risk-Adjusted Expected Return</p></td></tr><tr><td><b>Nvidia</b></td><td><b>0.1%</b></td><td><b>17.7%</b></td><td><b>17.8%</b></td><td><b>12.5%</b></td><td><b>10.1%</b></td><td><b>7.1</b></td><td><b>2.62</b></td></tr><tr><td>Nasdaq</td><td>0.8%</td><td>11.8%</td><td>12.6%</td><td>8.8%</td><td>6.5%</td><td>11.0</td><td>1.88</td></tr><tr><td>Schwab US Dividend Equity ETF</td><td>3.6%</td><td>8.5%</td><td>12.1%</td><td>8.4%</td><td>6.1%</td><td>11.8</td><td>1.81</td></tr><tr><td>Dividend Aristocrats</td><td>2.6%</td><td>8.5%</td><td>11.1%</td><td>7.8%</td><td>5.4%</td><td>13.2</td><td>1.70</td></tr><tr><td>S&amp;P 500</td><td>1.8%</td><td>8.5%</td><td>10.3%</td><td>7.2%</td><td>4.9%</td><td>14.8</td><td>1.61</td></tr><tr><td><b>Qualcomm</b></td><td><b>2.4%</b></td><td><b>7.8%</b></td><td><b>10.2%</b></td><td><b>7.1%</b></td><td><b>4.8%</b></td><td><b>15.0</b></td><td><b>1.60</b></td></tr></tbody></table><p><i>(Sources: DK Research Terminal, FactSet, Morningstar, Ycharts)</i></p><p>Analysts expect Buffett-like 18% long-term returns from NVDA, not much bellow its 22% CAGR rolling 15-year returns since 1999.</p><p>In other words:</p><ul><li>QCOM is struggling with several slow years of growth due to cyclical headwinds</li><li>NVDA&#39;s growth engine is firing on all cylinders thanks to its dominance of super chip GPUs driving the future of the world economy</li></ul><p>OK, so NVDA is the best chip stock right? And clearly better than QCOM? Not necessarily.</p><h2>The Biggest Problem Income Investors Will Have With Nvidia</h2><p>What is there to not love about NVDA? Is it the balance sheet?</p><ul><li>A stable credit rating from S&amp;P = 0.66% 30-year bankruptcy risk</li><li>$11 billion in net cash on the balance sheet</li><li>$6.6 billion in annual free cash flow.</li></ul><p>No, NVDA&#39;s balanced sheet is a fortress and it&#39;s a free cash flow minting machine.</p><p>No, the biggest issue about NVDA is how stingy management is with the dividend.</p><p></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/aaab450b786d3fc8033addc276f49980\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"341\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>FAST Graphs, FactSet</p><p>NVDA&#39;s overall dividend growth rate is expectational, 27% CAGR since it began paying on in 2013. And its 52% CAGR annual total returns over that time period put even Amazon (AMZN) to shame.</p><p>But note how the dividend growth rate began slowing in 2018 and it hasn&#39;t raised its dividend for two years. The free cash flow (&#34;FCF&#34;) payout ratio has fallen to 5%, 1/10th the credit rating safety guideline for this industry.</p><p>NVDA&#39;s dividend yield is 0.1% and even if management were to take the payout ratio to the 50% safety guideline it would be just 1%, far below other world-beater blue-chip dividend chip stocks.</p><ul><li>Broadcom (AVGO): 3.2%</li><li>Texas Instruments (TXN): 2.8%</li><li>Qualcomm: 2.4%.</li></ul><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3ed8059fb756ebb0208f4a9255da8fcf\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"359\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>FactSet Research Terminal</p><p>Value investors might also be uncomfortable with a company trading at 38X forward earnings.</p><ul><li>cash-adjusted P/E is 29X</li></ul><p>What is NVDA&#39;s fair value?</p><ul><li>NVDA fair value: $136.39</li><li>current price: $160.55</li><li>discount to fair value: -18%</li><li>DK rating: hold.</li></ul><p>NVDA&#39;s 45% rally in recent weeks meant the margin of safety went from 21% to -18%.</p><p>Today NVDA is at a premium price that means a lot of downside risk for one of the most volatile world-beater tech blue-chips in the world.</p><p>If the 2023 recession causes earnings estimates to come down in the coming quarters? Then NVDA could suffer a sharp decline like these.</p><h4>Nvidia In The 2022 Bear Market</h4><p></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1fb0d9fdc2e84efd099a075dc786d759\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"340\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Portfolio Visualizer Premium</p><p></p><p>In the past year alone NVDA has suffered double-digit monthly declines no less than six times, including 32% crash in April.</p><h4>Nvidia In The Pandemic</h4><p></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9a5e4c84cd9a33c4eb1344645e4d9e02\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"113\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Portfolio Visualizer Premium</p><p>Nvidia held up well in the Pandemic, as did most tech stocks.</p><ul><li>The Nasdaq 100 fell just 12% while the S&amp;P fell 34%.</li></ul><p>But NVDA&#39;s crashes are the stuff of legend, and anyone owning it should be prepared for truly gut-wrenching volatility in the future. What kind of volatility?</p><h4>Nvidia In The 2018 Bear Market</h4><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/35a727821abe6d4024c68205c4a25cc4\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"149\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Portfolio Visualizer Premium</p><p>Imagine a stock you own falls 25% in a month, then 22% the next month, and then another 18% the following month.</p><p>That&#39;s what happened in the 2018 bear market.</p><ul><li>53% decline in 3 months</li><li>S&amp;P fell 21%.</li></ul><p>And that was just the 4th largest bear market in NVDA&#39;s history.</p><ul><li>it&#39;s suffered six 40+% crashes in the last 23 years</li><li>averaging once every four years.</li></ul><h4>Nvidia In The 2011 Bear Market</h4><p></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2451a52de33e3efbd62756ec8aae19d2\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"209\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Portfolio Visualizer Premium</p><p>Compared to some its crashes, the 2011 bear market decline of 38% was relatively tame.</p><h4>Nvidia In The Great Recession</h4><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4be365a32a8f24d156b47fe1ce741ea2\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"424\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Portfolio Visualizer Premium</p><p>NVDA dell 80% during the Great Recession, including falling almost 40% in July 2008. It fell 54% from June to July of 2008, a level of volatility that only those who owned it in a diversified portfolio could stomach.</p><h4>Nvidia Pre-Tech Crash</h4><p></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b85abd332be6f5f0eee3a6ed3ed98348\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"417\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Portfolio Visualizer Premium</p><p>Even before the tech crash of 2000 to 2002, NVDA was capable of falling 32% in a single month.</p><h4>Nvidia During The Tech Crash</h4><p></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f482c390124c7ab2212d687c4ad53ccf\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"431\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Portfolio Visualizer Premium<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/34faa537584a4beab097d4a2e14c2f34\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"301\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Portfolio Visualizer Premium</p><p></p><p>If you think a 45% one month rally means NVDA is out of the woods, you&#39;re wrong.</p><p>During the Tech Crash NVDA had nine 20+% single month rallies.</p><p>That includes nearly tripling from October 2001 to December 2001.</p><p>NVDA then proceeded to fall nine straight months, a total of 87%, including getting cut in half in June 2002.</p><ul><li>after already falling 50% in the previous five months</li><li>and then it fell another 50% before bottoming in September of 2022.</li></ul><p>So what if you buy NVDA today? At a 17% historical premium? Will you regret it? That depends on your time horizon. Over the next few months? Probably you&#39;re in for a wild wide...to the downside.</p><ul><li>2023 recession is expected to cause the market to bottom at 3,000 to 3,400 between Q1 of 2023 and Q4 of 2024.</li></ul><p>But in the medium-term and long-term?</p><h4>Nvidia 2025 Consensus Total Return Potential</h4><p></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d1c252be18bc5c5c6ab04785c41297a7\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"278\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>(Source: FAST Graphs, FactSet)</p><p>NVDA&#39;s P/E peaked in the Pandemic bubble at 82X, compared to a historical market-determined fair value of 32.</p><p>It&#39;s 60% collapse brought it back to historical fair value and then it rallied 45% and became 18% overvalued. Despite strong growth in 2024 and 2025, it&#39;s consensus return potential is effectively zero.</p><h4>NVIDIA 2028 Consensus Total Return Potential</h4><p></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/33eed1944ddaef0cf8144129739a81a7\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"298\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>(Source: FAST Graphs, FactSet)</p><p>NVDA&#39;s growth rate is so strong that it might almost double even from today&#39;s 18% historical premium.</p><ul><li>approximately 2X the S&amp;P consensus.</li></ul><p>But if those estimates come down then NVDA investors could be in for a rough and highly volatile few years.</p><h4>Nvidia Investment Decision Score</h4><p></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4e9bd4292ef2e7e5731cd633b4998777\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"248\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>DK</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/50cbbe0e07e810009a9c363f88f22c6c\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"325\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Dividend Kings Automated Investment Decision Tool</p><p>NVDA today, even at an 18% premium, is a superior choice compared to the S&amp;P 500.</p><ul><li>higher risk-adjusted expected return than the S&amp;P over the next five years</li><li>80% higher long-term annual return potential</li></ul><h2>Bottom Line: Nvidia Is The Far Better Growth Stock But Qualcomm Is The Far Better Buy Today</h2><p>When it comes to maximizing safe long-term income, combining hyper-growth with high-yield is the single best strategy.</p><p>And that&#39;s why blue-chip income investors love companies like QCOM and NVDA, which can turbocharge their long-term income growth rates.</p><ul><li>SCHD delivered 15% annual income growth over the last decade</li><li>SCHD, QQQ, MO, ENB, QCOM, and NVDA delivered 28% CAGR</li><li>and 50% more overall inflation-adjusted income.</li></ul><p>And when it comes to the issue of which chip titan is the better growth stock, it looks like NVDA is the hands down winner.</p><ul><li>a 10X bigger addressable market today (though QCOM is planning to catch up 70% of the way within a decade)</li><li>2x the median growth consensus</li><li>historically 7% higher annual returns.</li></ul><p>So you might think that NVDA is the hands down winner here. But remember that valuation matters, and it matters a lot.</p><ul><li>QCOM is 20% historically undervalued</li><li>NVDA is almost 20% historically overvalued.</li></ul><p>Given that NVDA is one of the most volatile companies on earth, capable of rising or falling 60% in a single month, knowingly overpaying for it is just asking for extreme portfolio short-term pain.</p><p>If you own NVDA today, as I do? I don&#39;t recommend selling it. Not when you&#39;ve potentially locked in Buffett-like 18% CAGR long-term returns and its growth engines are firing on all cylinders.</p><p>But for new money today? QCOM is the far better option, and could more than double in the next five years.</p><p>Even if QCOM&#39;s growth outlook never recovers from its current 8%, paying 9.4X cash-adjusted earnings gives you a very nice margin of safety.</p><p>One that means anyone buying QCOM today is likely to be pleased in 5+ years, and possibly feel like a stock market genius in 10+ years.</p></body></html>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Qualcomm Vs. Nvidia: The Better Buy Might Shock You</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nQualcomm Vs. Nvidia: The Better Buy Might Shock You\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2022-11-20 12:24 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://seekingalpha.com/article/4558697-qualcomm-vs-nvidia-the-better-buy-might-shock-you><strong>Seeking Alpha</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>Do you dream of retiring in comfort or even splendor? Who doesn't?!Do you wish your retirement standard of living could be 100% free from the market's crazy gyrations? I know I do.Does the idea of ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4558697-qualcomm-vs-nvidia-the-better-buy-might-shock-you\">Source Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"QCOM":"高通","NVDA":"英伟达"},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4558697-qualcomm-vs-nvidia-the-better-buy-might-shock-you","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2284038371","content_text":"Do you dream of retiring in comfort or even splendor? Who doesn't?!Do you wish your retirement standard of living could be 100% free from the market's crazy gyrations? I know I do.Does the idea of being able to count on steadily growing income in all market, economic, inflation, and interest rate conditions, sound appealing? It does to me.Well then blue-chip dividend investing might be just what you're looking for.When you hear \"dividend investing\" you probably think of boring, mature, and stable businesses like Altria (MO), Verizon (VZ) or Pepsi (PEP).And while those are indeed wonderful ways to earn generous, very safe, and steadily growing income today, if you want to maximize long-term retirement income there is no better way than combining high-yield and fast-growth.Why? Let's consider the examples of two fast-growing dividend chip stocks, QUALCOMM Incorporated (NASDAQ:QCOM) and NVIDIA Corporation (NASDAQ:NVDA).Let's see what happens when we combine high-yield with fast-growth.Historical Total Returns Since 2011Portfolio Visualizer PremiumCombining the world's best high-yield and growth exchange-traded funds (\"ETFs\") with the growth and ultra-yield blue-chips created a far better performing portfolio over the last 11 years.Portfolio Visualizer PremiumBut more importantly for income investors, it also delivered superior income over time.Income Growth Rich Retirement Dreams Are Made OfPortfolio Visualizer PremiumCumulative Dividends Since 2012: Per $1,000 Initial InvestmentMetricS&P 500SCHDSCHD, QQQ, ENB, MO, NVDA, QCOMTotal Dividends$471$785$1,177Total Inflation-Adjusted Dividends$359.54$599.24$898.47Annualized Income Growth Rate9.0%15.3%27.9%Total Income/Initial Investment %0.470.791.18Inflation-Adjusted Income/Initial Investment %0.360.600.90More Inflation-Adjusted Income Than S&PNA1.672.50Starting Yield2.5%3.2%2.7%Today's Annual Dividend Return On Your Starting Investment (Yield On Cost)5.9%13.3%31.7%2022 Inflation-Adjusted Annual Dividend Return On Your Starting Investment (Inflation-Adjusted Yield On Cost)4.5%10.2%24.2%(Source: Portfolio Visualizer Premium)By combining yield and growth over the last 10 year income investors have enjoyed 28% annual income growth, 2X better than Schwab U.S. Dividend Equity ETF (SCHD), and 3X better than the S&P 500 (SP500).They've gotten back 90% of their initial investment in inflation-adjusted dividends, and enjoyed 2.5X more income than the S&P 500 and 50% more income than SCHD alone.And for every $1 invested in 2011 they are now getting $.24 in annual inflation-adjusted dividends, and that's growing exponentially each year.SCHD investors are getting $0.1 in annual income per $1 investmentS&P 500 investors $0.05.Ok, so that's fine for those with 10+ years to invest, but surely retirees should stick to high-yield only right? WRONG!Unless you expect to drop dead in 10 years let's not forget that retirements last a long time.Hamilton Project22% of U.S. men can expect to live to 90 and 34% of woman.In other words, even if you're already retired chances are very good that you have a 10+ year, or even 30 to 40 year time horizon.And that's where the power of fast dividend compounding really shines.How powerful is hyper-dividend compounding over 35 years?MO + LOW Cumulative Dividends Since 1985 Per $1,000 Initial Investment MetricAltriaLowe'sAltria + Lowe'sTotal Dividends$282,584$37,611$286,519Total Inflation-Adjusted Dividends$100,563.70$13,384.70$101,964.06Annualized Income Growth Rate18.8%18.2%21.7%Total Income/Initial Investment %282.5837.61286.52Inflation-Adjusted Income/Initial Investment %100.5613.38101.96More Inflation-Adjusted Income Than AltriaNA0.131.01Starting Yield4.8%1.4%3.0%Today's Annual Dividend Return On Your Starting Investment (Yield On Cost)2774.0%682.5%4350.4%Today's Inflation-Adjusted Annual Dividend Return On Your Starting Investment (Inflation-Adjusted Yield On Cost)987.2%242.9%1548.2%(Source: Portfolio Visualizer Premium)You can enjoy 100X your initial investment in inflation-adjusted income and achieve truly mind boggling income by combining ultra-yield with hyper-dividend growth.And guess what? Combining yield + hyper-growth, even without dividends can be even more powerful.MO + AMZN Cumulative Dividends Since 1998 Per $1,000 Initial Investment MetricAltriaAltria + AmazonTotal Dividends$3,034.00$101,408.00Total Inflation-Adjusted Dividends$1,657.92$55,414.21Annualized Income Growth Rate3.31%27.96%Total Income/Initial Investment %3.034101.408Inflation-Adjusted Income/Initial Investment %1.65792349755.41420765More Inflation-Adjusted Income Than AltriaNA33.4Starting Yield3.80%4.10%Today's Annual Dividend Return On Your Starting Investment (Yield On Cost)8.30%1523.50%2022 Inflation-Adjusted Annual Dividend Return On Your Starting Investment (Inflation-Adjusted Yield On Cost)4.54%832.51%(Source: Portfolio Visualizer Premium) MO's dividend growth is low because of the 2007 and 2008 spin-offs. Had you bought both AMZN and MO back in 1997, reinvested dividends, and rebalanced annually, today you've received 33X more inflation-adjusted income over the last 24 years.28% annual income growth means a 208X higher inflation-adjusted yield on cost.Income growth over time tends to track total returns, so you want to make sure that you're dividend portfolio is likely to generate strong returns. Not just to keep up with inflation (2.3% long-term according to the bond market).You want your standard of living to keep rising in retirement, no matter how long you live.And that's where growth stocks like QCOM and NVDA can help.Several members have asked for an update on those chip titans and after carefully examining both companies most recent fundamentals I have come to a surprising conclusion.At the moment, Nvidia is the far better chip dividend stock to buy, for anyone looking to maximize long-term income. Let me show you why.Qualcomm: A Wonderful World-Beater Facing A Slower Growth FutureYchartsChip makers are up 26% in the last month, though that's only after getting crushed in a ferocious bear market.Portfolio Visualizer PremiumNvidia fell as much as 63% in this bear market (so far). That's its 3rd worst bear market in history.Portfolio Visualizer PremiumQCOM has fallen as much as 37% in this bear market, also it's 3rd worst bear market.Smartphone Weakness Finally Catches Up to Qualcomm As Inventories BuildQualcomm’s guidance includes an estimated negative impact of about $2 billion in revenue due to weaker demand, foreign exchange headwinds, and excess inventories.\" - MorningstarOne year ago, chip makers were the darlings of Wall Street. The Pandemic supply chain disruptions caused a chip shortage, while record $30 trillion in global stimulus caused a boom in demand for physical goods. Many of which require computer chips.Some in the industry were even talking about a permanent industry shift, from cyclical boom and bust cycles, to a world in which chip makers could deliver steady, tech utility like secular growth.Well, scratch that idea. It turns out chips are still a cyclical industry and smartphone demand is falling rapidly as the global economy weakens.Samsung’s profit drops by more than 30% on weakening memory chip demandQualcomm said it expects its mobile-phone handset business to fall In \"a low double-digit percentage range\" this year from last year. The company had earlier forecast a \"mid-single-digit percentage decline\" from 2021.\" - Seeking AlphaAs early as Q2 QCOM's sales were soaring 36% on the back of strong smartphone demand.Now they are expected to decline and so are earnings.FactSet Research TerminalAfter exploding higher during the pandemic, QCOM's earnings are expected to:fall 8% in 2023grow 11% in 20242% EPS growth from 2022 to 2024.QCOM's licensing business, which generates incredible 73% operating margins, isn't expected to grow in the future, though its 263,708 patents are still expected to mint free cash flow for years to come.At least in the short-term analysts growth outlooks have dimmed for QCOM which is now expected to grow around 8% over the long-term, after we get past the 2023 recession.FAST Graphs, FactSetFAST Graphs, FactSetFAST Graphs, FactSetFAST Graphs, FactSetIs QCOM likely to actually grow at 8% over time? Which would make the total return outlook rather uninspiring?Investment StrategyYieldLT Consensus GrowthLT Consensus Total Return PotentialLong-Term Risk-Adjusted Expected ReturnLong-Term Inflation And Risk-Adjusted Expected ReturnsYears To Double Your Inflation & Risk-Adjusted Wealth10-Year Inflation And Risk-Adjusted Expected ReturnNasdaq0.8%11.8%12.6%8.8%6.5%11.01.88Schwab US Dividend Equity ETF3.6%8.5%12.1%8.4%6.1%11.81.81Dividend Aristocrats2.6%8.5%11.1%7.8%5.4%13.21.70S&P 5001.8%8.5%10.3%7.2%4.9%14.81.61Qualcomm2.4%7.8%10.2%7.1%4.8%15.01.60(Source: DK Research Terminal, FactSet)If analysts are right, then QCOM might merely match the market going forward.But I don't actually expect QCOM to grow at just 8% in the future, and here are two reasons why.Investor presentationQCOM's addressable market is expected to grow from $100 billion per year (43% market share) to $700 billion in the next decade. QCOM is diversifying into cloud computing, driverless cars, and the internet of things or IOT.This makes me think that the recent decline in growth outlook is due to the recent cyclical downturn, which often happens with chip makers.YchartsHowever, in the short-term QCOM investors are going to have to be patient, because the recent face-ripping rally has reduced the total return potential for the next few years.YchartsQCOM has rallied 21% off its November 3rd lows, and combined with a weak global growth outlook for 2023, means that short-term growth prospects are rather weak.But that doesn't mean that QCOM isn't a potentially attractive buy.fair value: $163.92current price: $126.02discount to fair value: 23%DK rating: potentially strong buy.FactSet Research TerminalQCOM is trading at 11.4X consensus trough earnings, and just 9.3X cash-adjusted trough earnings.That means it's pricing in approximately 1.6% CAGR long-term growth, far below the 7.8% analysts currently expect.Qualcomm 2024 Consensus Return Potential FAST Graphs, FactSetWhich means that if QCOM grows as expected and returns to historical market-determined fair value it could deliver Buffett-like 19% annual returns over the next three years.about 2X the S&P consensusQualcomm 2028 Consensus Return PotentialFAST Graphs, FactSetEven with just 3.5% annual EPS growth expected through 2028, QCOM could more than double your money, delivering 14% annual returns, about 2X the S&P consensus.Or to put another way, if you buy QCOM today, you get an Ultra-SWAN quality dividend growth powerhouse, that could more than double your money as we wait to see if QCOM's growth outlook improves in the future.FAST Graphs, FActSetQCOM has been paying a dividend for 19 consecutive years, and raised it every year. The dividend growth rate has been a stellar 20% annually and its delivered close to 14% annual returns.the current five year consensus return forecast.I think long-term QCOM should be able to continue delivering 13% to 14% long-term returns, which makes it worth buying today, or at least holding it if you already own it.13% to 14% long-term returns is better than SCHD, the S&P, dividend aristocrats, and the Nasdaq.Qualcomm Investment Decision ScoreDKDividend Kings Automated Investment Decision ToolQCOM might not be a table-pounding buy compared to the S&P 500, but it's still a satisfactory one that's offering:superior and safer yielda faster-growing dividendbetter medium-term total returns66% better risk-adjusted expected returns30% higher income potential over the next five years than the S&PNVIDIA: A Chip Specialist Facing A Cyclical Downturn But Whose Hyper-Growth Outlook Remains IntactNVDA fell off a cliff when the Biden Administration announced export controls on chips to China.Fortunately the company adapted quickly and has already announced new export control compliant chips.YchartsNews like that, along with the overall \"risk on\" sentiment in stocks, has helped drive NVDA up 44% in recent weeks.This isn't surprising given that NVDA is a very volatile stock, historically 2.2X more volatile than the S&P 500.Nvidia Rolling Returns Since Feb 1999 IPOPortfolio Visualizer PremiumGut churning volatility cuts both ways, with 90% crashes followed by 751% one year rallies.From bear market lows NVDA is capable of:140% annual returns for 3 years = 13.8X in 3 years89% annual returns for five years = 24.1X in five years81% annual returns for seven years = 64.9X in seven years47% annual returns for 10 years = 92.4X in 10 years34% annual returns for 15 years = 77.1X in 15 years.The question investors need answered today, is what does NVDA's long-term outlook like now that the U.S. and China are in an economic cold war?Nvidia's Data Center Business Drives the Firm's Wide Moat RatingNvidia is the top designer of discrete graphics processing units that enhance the visual experience on computing platforms. The firm's chips are used in a variety of end markets, including high-end PCs for gaming and data centers.\" - MorningstarNVDA might have started out focused on gaming PCs, but it's now at the forefront of some of the world's best secular growth trends.cloud computingAIdriverless carsautomation.investor presentationManagement estimates NVDA's total addressable market is $1 trillion per year (2.7% market share) and those markets are the backbone of the entire $100 trillion global economy.The acquisition of Mellanox has helped diversify Nvidia’s end-market exposure, and we suspect the firm will derive over half of revenue from the data center segment going forward, which should help mitigate some of the volatility Nvidia has faced in its gaming and cryptocurrency mining-related sales over the past few years.\" - MorningstarNVDA has been diversifying away from gaming for years, and Morningstar thinks they could soon get over 50% of sales from datacenters, a far more stable business.FactSet Research TerminalAnalysts are even more bullish on the datacenter business, expecting it to triple in the next five years.25% annual growth rate.By 2027 analysts think 73% of NVDA's sales will be coming from datacenters.Why? Because datacenters are enterprise and big businesses don't mind spending millions on the best hardware if it saves them money in the long-term.What kind of businesses are NVDA's datacenter customers?investor presentationNVDA's datacenter customers have deep pockets and are expected to help drive incredible long-term growth. How incredible?FactSet Research TerminalHow about tripling earnings in five years, and 18% long-term earnings growth?20% to 78% CAGR growth over the last 20 years.Given NVDA's massive $1 trillion addressable market, and dominance in advanced GPUs (the \"super chips\" that drive the future) I consider 18% long-term growth a reasonable estimate from all 46 analysts who cover it.What does that potentially mean for investors?Investment StrategyYieldLT Consensus GrowthLT Consensus Total Return PotentialLong-Term Risk-Adjusted Expected ReturnLong-Term Inflation And Risk-Adjusted Expected ReturnsYears To Double Your Inflation & Risk-Adjusted Wealth10-Year Inflation And Risk-Adjusted Expected ReturnNvidia0.1%17.7%17.8%12.5%10.1%7.12.62Nasdaq0.8%11.8%12.6%8.8%6.5%11.01.88Schwab US Dividend Equity ETF3.6%8.5%12.1%8.4%6.1%11.81.81Dividend Aristocrats2.6%8.5%11.1%7.8%5.4%13.21.70S&P 5001.8%8.5%10.3%7.2%4.9%14.81.61Qualcomm2.4%7.8%10.2%7.1%4.8%15.01.60(Sources: DK Research Terminal, FactSet, Morningstar, Ycharts)Analysts expect Buffett-like 18% long-term returns from NVDA, not much bellow its 22% CAGR rolling 15-year returns since 1999.In other words:QCOM is struggling with several slow years of growth due to cyclical headwindsNVDA's growth engine is firing on all cylinders thanks to its dominance of super chip GPUs driving the future of the world economyOK, so NVDA is the best chip stock right? And clearly better than QCOM? Not necessarily.The Biggest Problem Income Investors Will Have With NvidiaWhat is there to not love about NVDA? Is it the balance sheet?A stable credit rating from S&P = 0.66% 30-year bankruptcy risk$11 billion in net cash on the balance sheet$6.6 billion in annual free cash flow.No, NVDA's balanced sheet is a fortress and it's a free cash flow minting machine.No, the biggest issue about NVDA is how stingy management is with the dividend.FAST Graphs, FactSetNVDA's overall dividend growth rate is expectational, 27% CAGR since it began paying on in 2013. And its 52% CAGR annual total returns over that time period put even Amazon (AMZN) to shame.But note how the dividend growth rate began slowing in 2018 and it hasn't raised its dividend for two years. The free cash flow (\"FCF\") payout ratio has fallen to 5%, 1/10th the credit rating safety guideline for this industry.NVDA's dividend yield is 0.1% and even if management were to take the payout ratio to the 50% safety guideline it would be just 1%, far below other world-beater blue-chip dividend chip stocks.Broadcom (AVGO): 3.2%Texas Instruments (TXN): 2.8%Qualcomm: 2.4%.FactSet Research TerminalValue investors might also be uncomfortable with a company trading at 38X forward earnings.cash-adjusted P/E is 29XWhat is NVDA's fair value?NVDA fair value: $136.39current price: $160.55discount to fair value: -18%DK rating: hold.NVDA's 45% rally in recent weeks meant the margin of safety went from 21% to -18%.Today NVDA is at a premium price that means a lot of downside risk for one of the most volatile world-beater tech blue-chips in the world.If the 2023 recession causes earnings estimates to come down in the coming quarters? Then NVDA could suffer a sharp decline like these.Nvidia In The 2022 Bear MarketPortfolio Visualizer PremiumIn the past year alone NVDA has suffered double-digit monthly declines no less than six times, including 32% crash in April.Nvidia In The PandemicPortfolio Visualizer PremiumNvidia held up well in the Pandemic, as did most tech stocks.The Nasdaq 100 fell just 12% while the S&P fell 34%.But NVDA's crashes are the stuff of legend, and anyone owning it should be prepared for truly gut-wrenching volatility in the future. What kind of volatility?Nvidia In The 2018 Bear MarketPortfolio Visualizer PremiumImagine a stock you own falls 25% in a month, then 22% the next month, and then another 18% the following month.That's what happened in the 2018 bear market.53% decline in 3 monthsS&P fell 21%.And that was just the 4th largest bear market in NVDA's history.it's suffered six 40+% crashes in the last 23 yearsaveraging once every four years.Nvidia In The 2011 Bear MarketPortfolio Visualizer PremiumCompared to some its crashes, the 2011 bear market decline of 38% was relatively tame.Nvidia In The Great RecessionPortfolio Visualizer PremiumNVDA dell 80% during the Great Recession, including falling almost 40% in July 2008. It fell 54% from June to July of 2008, a level of volatility that only those who owned it in a diversified portfolio could stomach.Nvidia Pre-Tech CrashPortfolio Visualizer PremiumEven before the tech crash of 2000 to 2002, NVDA was capable of falling 32% in a single month.Nvidia During The Tech CrashPortfolio Visualizer PremiumPortfolio Visualizer PremiumIf you think a 45% one month rally means NVDA is out of the woods, you're wrong.During the Tech Crash NVDA had nine 20+% single month rallies.That includes nearly tripling from October 2001 to December 2001.NVDA then proceeded to fall nine straight months, a total of 87%, including getting cut in half in June 2002.after already falling 50% in the previous five monthsand then it fell another 50% before bottoming in September of 2022.So what if you buy NVDA today? At a 17% historical premium? Will you regret it? That depends on your time horizon. Over the next few months? Probably you're in for a wild wide...to the downside.2023 recession is expected to cause the market to bottom at 3,000 to 3,400 between Q1 of 2023 and Q4 of 2024.But in the medium-term and long-term?Nvidia 2025 Consensus Total Return Potential(Source: FAST Graphs, FactSet)NVDA's P/E peaked in the Pandemic bubble at 82X, compared to a historical market-determined fair value of 32.It's 60% collapse brought it back to historical fair value and then it rallied 45% and became 18% overvalued. Despite strong growth in 2024 and 2025, it's consensus return potential is effectively zero.NVIDIA 2028 Consensus Total Return Potential(Source: FAST Graphs, FactSet)NVDA's growth rate is so strong that it might almost double even from today's 18% historical premium.approximately 2X the S&P consensus.But if those estimates come down then NVDA investors could be in for a rough and highly volatile few years.Nvidia Investment Decision ScoreDKDividend Kings Automated Investment Decision ToolNVDA today, even at an 18% premium, is a superior choice compared to the S&P 500.higher risk-adjusted expected return than the S&P over the next five years80% higher long-term annual return potentialBottom Line: Nvidia Is The Far Better Growth Stock But Qualcomm Is The Far Better Buy TodayWhen it comes to maximizing safe long-term income, combining hyper-growth with high-yield is the single best strategy.And that's why blue-chip income investors love companies like QCOM and NVDA, which can turbocharge their long-term income growth rates.SCHD delivered 15% annual income growth over the last decadeSCHD, QQQ, MO, ENB, QCOM, and NVDA delivered 28% CAGRand 50% more overall inflation-adjusted income.And when it comes to the issue of which chip titan is the better growth stock, it looks like NVDA is the hands down winner.a 10X bigger addressable market today (though QCOM is planning to catch up 70% of the way within a decade)2x the median growth consensushistorically 7% higher annual returns.So you might think that NVDA is the hands down winner here. But remember that valuation matters, and it matters a lot.QCOM is 20% historically undervaluedNVDA is almost 20% historically overvalued.Given that NVDA is one of the most volatile companies on earth, capable of rising or falling 60% in a single month, knowingly overpaying for it is just asking for extreme portfolio short-term pain.If you own NVDA today, as I do? I don't recommend selling it. Not when you've potentially locked in Buffett-like 18% CAGR long-term returns and its growth engines are firing on all cylinders.But for new money today? QCOM is the far better option, and could more than double in the next five years.Even if QCOM's growth outlook never recovers from its current 8%, paying 9.4X cash-adjusted earnings gives you a very nice margin of safety.One that means anyone buying QCOM today is likely to be pleased in 5+ years, and possibly feel like a stock market genius in 10+ years.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"NVDA":1,"QCOM":1}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1359,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9963792192,"gmtCreate":1668750249216,"gmtModify":1676538107874,"author":{"id":"3574914526090483","authorId":"3574914526090483","name":"yeelyn18","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ae47c3e96729c68a0234dd22850dfe69","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3574914526090483","authorIdStr":"3574914526090483"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Ok","listText":"Ok","text":"Ok","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":5,"commentSize":2,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9963792192","repostId":"1103280772","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1103280772","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1668736676,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1103280772?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2022-11-18 09:57","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Bullard Sets Tone for Fed Officials Signaling Hikes Will Roll On","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1103280772","media":"Bloomberg","summary":"Borrowing costs should be high enough to curb inflationTightening has had limited effect on prices s","content":"<div>\n<p>Borrowing costs should be high enough to curb inflationTightening has had limited effect on prices so far, he saysSt. Louis Fed President James Bullard said policymakers should raise interest rates to...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2022-11-17/fed-s-bullard-says-more-hikes-needed-to-get-to-restrictive-level\">Source Link</a>\n\n</div>\n","source":"lsy1584095487587","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; 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overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nBullard Sets Tone for Fed Officials Signaling Hikes Will Roll On\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2022-11-18 09:57 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2022-11-17/fed-s-bullard-says-more-hikes-needed-to-get-to-restrictive-level><strong>Bloomberg</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>Borrowing costs should be high enough to curb inflationTightening has had limited effect on prices so far, he saysSt. Louis Fed President James Bullard said policymakers should raise interest rates to...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2022-11-17/fed-s-bullard-says-more-hikes-needed-to-get-to-restrictive-level\">Source Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{".DJI":"道琼斯",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index"},"source_url":"https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2022-11-17/fed-s-bullard-says-more-hikes-needed-to-get-to-restrictive-level","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1103280772","content_text":"Borrowing costs should be high enough to curb inflationTightening has had limited effect on prices so far, he saysSt. Louis Fed President James Bullard said policymakers should raise interest rates to at least 5% to 5.25%, hitting financial markets as investors recalibrated bets on how high officials would go.“In the past I have said 4.75% to 5%,” he told reporters Thursday after giving a speech in Louisville, Kentucky. “Based on this analysis today, I would say 5% to 5.25%. That’s a minimum level. According to this analysis, that would at least get us in the zone.”Chair Jerome Powell said earlier this month that rates will need to rise more than previously expected due to disappointing inflation data, while suggesting that officials could moderate the size of their increases going forward. A key reading on consumer prices since then was better than expected but policymakers continue to stress the need to keep raising rates.Officials in September had projected rates rising to around 4.6% next year from a current target range of 3.75% to 4%. Those projections will be updated at the Fed’s Dec. 13-14 meeting.US 10-year Treasury yields climbed after Bullard became the latest official to say that interest rates had further to rise to curb the strongest inflation in 40 years.San Francisco Fed President Mary Daly said on Wednesday that “somewhere between 4.75 and 5.25 seems a reasonable place to think about” for the level that officials should raise rates to then go on hold.Bullard’s hawkish tone was echoed later on Thursday by Minneapolis Fed President Neel Kashkari, whosaidit’s an “open question” how far the central bank has to go with rates to bring demand back into balance.“I need to be convinced that inflation has at least stopped climbing, that we’re not falling further behind the curve before I would advocate stopping a progression of future rate hikes, so we’re not there yet,” he told the Minnesota Chamber of Commerce’s 2022 Economic Summit.“The Fed is still maintaining a outward appearance of hawkishness pending another month of inflation data,” said Guy LeBas, chief fixed-income strategist for Janney Montgomery Scott LLC in Philadelphia. “One month of lower inflation doesn’t mean the war is over.”Data last week showed consumer inflation rising by a less-than-expected 7.7% in the 12 months through October. November’s reading will be released on Dec. 13, before officials begin their two days of policy deliberations.During his presentation, Bullard showed charts that indicated rates will need to be between about 5% to 7% to meet policymakers’ goal of being “sufficiently restrictive” to curb inflation near a four-decade high.The calculation used different versions of a Taylor Rule, a popular monetary policy guideline developed by Stanford University’s John Taylor.‘Minimal’ Level“It’s easy to make arguments that before this is all over you’d have to go to much higher levels of the policy rate” than 5.25%, said Bullard, who votes on policy this year. “But for now I’d be happy to get to the minimal level and that’s why I think the committee is going to have to do more.”The St. Louis Fed leader, who has been among the more hawkish policymakers this year, was the latest central banker to call for additional action.The Fed raised rates by 75 basis points on Nov. 2 for the fourth straight time as part of its most aggressive tightening since the 1980s to curb an inflation that started in the wake of the Covid-19 pandemic disruptions.Bullard didn’t say whether he would favor a 50 or 75 basis-point move at the Fed’s December meeting, telling reporters that he would look to Powell to set the direction.A number of his colleagues have called for a downshift in the size of the next rate increase following last week’s consumer price report, which showed a softening in core consumer goods inflation in October.Investors expect the Fed will raise rates by a half percentage point next month and see rates peaking around 5% next year.The St. Louis Fed president said he expected officials to keep rates high for an extended period to avoid the kind of monetary policy mistakes of the 1970s that resulted in persistently high inflation.“We certainly don’t want to replay that episode,” he told reporters. “So we’re going to have to see very tangible evidence that inflation’s coming down meaningfully toward target, and I think we’re going to want to err on the side of staying higher for longer in order to get that to happen.”Bullard said while he expected inflation to come down next year, there’s been relatively little evidence of that so far.“Thus far, the change in the monetary-policy stance appears to have had only limited effects on observed inflation, but market pricing suggests disinflation is expected in 2023,” Bullard said in his prepared remarks, adding rate hikes so far have caused little financial stress.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{".DJI":0.9,".IXIC":0.9,".SPX":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1143,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9969850160,"gmtCreate":1668406332950,"gmtModify":1676538051602,"author":{"id":"3574914526090483","authorId":"3574914526090483","name":"yeelyn18","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ae47c3e96729c68a0234dd22850dfe69","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3574914526090483","authorIdStr":"3574914526090483"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Ok","listText":"Ok","text":"Ok","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9969850160","repostId":"2283442428","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"2283442428","kind":"highlight","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"Reuters.com brings you the latest news from around the world, covering breaking news in markets, business, politics, entertainment and technology","home_visible":1,"media_name":"Reuters","id":"1036604489","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/443ce19704621c837795676028cec868"},"pubTimestamp":1668406156,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/2283442428?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2022-11-14 14:09","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Germany's BioNTech Says to Set up MRNA Vaccine Facility in Singapore","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2283442428","media":"Reuters","summary":"Nov 14 (Reuters) - BioNTech SE, the German biotech that developed a widely used COVID-19 vaccine wit","content":"<html><head></head><body><p>Nov 14 (Reuters) - BioNTech SE, the German biotech that developed a widely used COVID-19 vaccine with Pfizer Inc, acquired a manufacturing facility in Singapore, its first in Asia, the company said on Monday.</p><p>The facility, bought from a Novartis unit, will be its first messenger ribonucleic acid, or mRNA, facility in Singapore and support its vaccines production for the Asia Pacific region, BioNTech said in a statement, without disclosing financial details.</p><p>MRNA vaccines, which scientists say trick the body into protecting itself against an illness by copying viral proteins, are seen as a safe, speedy alternative to traditional vaccines - especially during a pandemic - since they involve no exposure to the illness.</p><p>BioNTech said the facility, which will also double as its regional headquarters, will initially be used to make a range of mRNA-based product candidates as well as authorized vaccines and therapeutics, which may include its COVID-19 vaccine.</p><p>The aim is to eventually expand production to other drug classes such as cell therapies, said BioNTech, which also plans to set up research and manufacturing centres in Australia.</p><p>The Singapore facility is expected to be fully operational by 2023 and create more than 100 jobs by 2024.</p></body></html>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Germany's BioNTech Says to Set up MRNA Vaccine Facility in Singapore</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nGermany's BioNTech Says to Set up MRNA Vaccine Facility in Singapore\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/1036604489\">\n\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/443ce19704621c837795676028cec868);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">Reuters </p>\n<p class=\"h-time\">2022-11-14 14:09</p>\n</div>\n\n</a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<html><head></head><body><p>Nov 14 (Reuters) - BioNTech SE, the German biotech that developed a widely used COVID-19 vaccine with Pfizer Inc, acquired a manufacturing facility in Singapore, its first in Asia, the company said on Monday.</p><p>The facility, bought from a Novartis unit, will be its first messenger ribonucleic acid, or mRNA, facility in Singapore and support its vaccines production for the Asia Pacific region, BioNTech said in a statement, without disclosing financial details.</p><p>MRNA vaccines, which scientists say trick the body into protecting itself against an illness by copying viral proteins, are seen as a safe, speedy alternative to traditional vaccines - especially during a pandemic - since they involve no exposure to the illness.</p><p>BioNTech said the facility, which will also double as its regional headquarters, will initially be used to make a range of mRNA-based product candidates as well as authorized vaccines and therapeutics, which may include its COVID-19 vaccine.</p><p>The aim is to eventually expand production to other drug classes such as cell therapies, said BioNTech, which also plans to set up research and manufacturing centres in Australia.</p><p>The Singapore facility is expected to be fully operational by 2023 and create more than 100 jobs by 2024.</p></body></html>\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"BNTX":"BioNTech SE"},"source_url":"","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2283442428","content_text":"Nov 14 (Reuters) - BioNTech SE, the German biotech that developed a widely used COVID-19 vaccine with Pfizer Inc, acquired a manufacturing facility in Singapore, its first in Asia, the company said on Monday.The facility, bought from a Novartis unit, will be its first messenger ribonucleic acid, or mRNA, facility in Singapore and support its vaccines production for the Asia Pacific region, BioNTech said in a statement, without disclosing financial details.MRNA vaccines, which scientists say trick the body into protecting itself against an illness by copying viral proteins, are seen as a safe, speedy alternative to traditional vaccines - especially during a pandemic - since they involve no exposure to the illness.BioNTech said the facility, which will also double as its regional headquarters, will initially be used to make a range of mRNA-based product candidates as well as authorized vaccines and therapeutics, which may include its COVID-19 vaccine.The aim is to eventually expand production to other drug classes such as cell therapies, said BioNTech, which also plans to set up research and manufacturing centres in Australia.The Singapore facility is expected to be fully operational by 2023 and create more than 100 jobs by 2024.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"BNTX":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":897,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9969928844,"gmtCreate":1668323511188,"gmtModify":1676538041551,"author":{"id":"3574914526090483","authorId":"3574914526090483","name":"yeelyn18","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ae47c3e96729c68a0234dd22850dfe69","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3574914526090483","authorIdStr":"3574914526090483"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Ok","listText":"Ok","text":"Ok","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9969928844","repostId":"2282457893","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"2282457893","kind":"highlight","pubTimestamp":1668301809,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/2282457893?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2022-11-13 09:10","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Alibaba: Refinement Of Zero COVID Policy Lifts Market Sentiments","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2282457893","media":"Seeking Alpha","summary":"SummaryAlibaba heads into its FQ2'23 earnings release on November 17 without disclosing its sales fi","content":"<html><head></head><body><h2>Summary</h2><ul><li>Alibaba heads into its FQ2&#39;23 earnings release on November 17 without disclosing its sales figures for its recently concluded Singles&#39; Day (11.11) sales event.</li><li>We discuss why even a relatively weak FQ2 earnings release should not impact the potential re-rating of BABA as China has started to refine its zero COVID policy.</li><li>At these levels, the reward/risk setup pointing to the upside remains attractive, with an earlier reopening likely spurring further buying momentum.</li><li>Maintain Strong Buy with a PT of $90.</li></ul><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/99fd8bfbb6e746ad97e8ae396d55f7fb\" tg-width=\"750\" tg-height=\"500\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/><span>Robert Way</span></p><p><i>This article is written by </i><i>JR Research</i><i> for reference only. Please note the risks.</i></p><h2>Thesis</h2><p>Alibaba Group Holding Limited (NYSE:BABA) heads into its highly-anticipated FQ2&#39;23 (quarter ended September 30) earnings release on November 17, even as it held back from reporting actual sales figures for its 2022 Singles&#39; Day (11.11) sales event for the first time.</p><p>Alibaba reported that its 11.11 event &#34;[delivered GMV] for brands in line with [2021] despite economic and COVID-related headwinds.&#34; Notably, Alibaba reported a gross merchandise value (GMV) of RMB540.3B for 2021&#39;s 11.11 event.</p><p>Therefore, all eyes will be on CEO Daniel Zhang &amp; team on November 17, as Bloomberg had reported earlier that Alibaba&#39;s 11.11 event &#34;may suffer a decline unprecedented in the event&#39;s 14-year history.&#34;</p><p>Despite that, BABA has outperformed the S&amp;P 500 (SPX) (SP500) since we upgraded it to Strong Buy in our previous article. Moreover, BABA&#39;s recent recovery was bolstered by the anticipation of a progressive easing of COVID policy. As such, the positive reaction by the market was not surprising.</p><p>We discuss why we glean that the mean reversion move for BABA remains attractive at the current levels. Despite the massive pessimism seen as investors further de-rated China&#39;s political risks, BABA&#39;s price action remains constructive. Coupled with a well-beaten-down valuation in line with its Hong Kong tech peers, we assess that BABA&#39;s reward/risk profile remains attractive.</p><p>Maintain Strong Buy with a medium-term price target (PT) of $90.</p><h2>Refinement Of China&#39;s COVID Policy Is Good Progress</h2><p>China lifted the market&#39;s sentiments last week as the newly installed Politburo Standing Committee (PSC) highlighted the need for &#34;more decisive&#34; measures, as Bloomberg reported:</p><blockquote>In a meeting of the new Politburo Standing Committee, the members called for more decisive measures to curb the spread of the virus so as to resume normal life and production as soon as possible, according to the Xinhua News Agency. - Bloomberg</blockquote><p>Therefore the &#34;20 measures&#34; rolled out by China&#39;s State Council and National Health Commission that reduced centralized quarantine time and flight suspension penalties were not expected by the market. Moreover, it occurred while COVID cases continued rising. Bloomberg reported that China&#39;s COVID cases increased to 11.3K on Friday (November 11), breaking above 10K for the first time since April on Thursday.</p><p>Furthermore, some cities actually reduced mass testing despite the rising cases. Hence, we believe the odds for a progressive ending in COVID zero are increasingly likely.</p><p>Still, investors should not rule out Beijing tightening its COVID policy again if COVID cases continue to rise higher, or even spike. China has maintained that the recent measures do not indicate that China has moved to living with the virus. Stamping out COVID expeditiously remains the guiding principle of its policy measures. As such, investors should expect near-term downside volatility if Beijing tightens further.</p><h2>What&#39;s Next For Alibaba?</h2><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ddc437479ec434895135417dc6411936\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"396\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/><span>Alibaba Revenue change % and Adjusted EBITDA change % consensus estimates (S&amp;P Cap IQ)</span></p><p>Therefore, we think the thesis for a bottoming in Alibaba&#39;s revenue and profitability growth by FY23 (year ending March 2023) is increasingly likely.</p><p>China&#39;s hand has likely been forced by the worsening global macroeconomic headwinds that has added significant stress to its domestic malaise. Moreover, China&#39;s trade surplus weakened further in October as exports fell for the first time since May 2020, down 0.3% YoY.</p><p>Furthermore, China&#39;s producer price index (PPI) declined 1.3% YoY in October, down for the first time in over two years. Hence, the disinflation signals are building up in China&#39;s economy, likely spurring policymakers to act more urgently to arrest China&#39;s economic malaise.</p><p>Therefore, while Alibaba may report a relatively tepid or even lower-than-project FQ2 earnings release, the market is already looking ahead. While still early, Goldman Sachs had previously highlighted that it expected a reopening in the &#34;second quarter of [2023].&#34; Therefore, we believe Wall Street&#39;s estimates have been predicated on such a possibility.</p><p>Given that China has already started to set the wheels in motion, despite the surge in COVID cases, we believe the reward/risk for an earlier exit is likely pointing to the upside.</p><h2>Is BABA Stock A Buy, Sell, Or Hold?</h2><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b99a8e7fe43e4b72d7e31dbf093f969e\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"340\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/><span>BABA price chart (weekly) (TradingView)</span></p><p>We emphasized in our previous update that BABA has two robust support zones that could see buyers defending vigorously against further selling pressure.</p><p>Therefore, even after the market forced sellers to give up after it broke below its March lows, buyers came in to defend its October 2015 levels ($57). That level appears to have been defended resolutely, which suggests that the market pulled the rug on weak holders who added the dips in March/May 2022.</p><p>Notwithstanding, we still need BABA to retake its March level and sit above it decisively for our thesis of a mean-reversion setup toward the $95 level to play out accordingly.</p><p>With China moving progressively away from its zero COVID strategy, we believe the potential for Alibaba to outperform the markedly downgraded consensus projections is looking increasingly likely.</p><p><i>Maintain Strong Buy with a medium-term PT of $90.</i></p></body></html>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Alibaba: Refinement Of Zero COVID Policy Lifts Market Sentiments</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nAlibaba: Refinement Of Zero COVID Policy Lifts Market Sentiments\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2022-11-13 09:10 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://seekingalpha.com/article/4556789-alibaba-refinement-zero-covid-policy-lifts-market-sentiments><strong>Seeking Alpha</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>SummaryAlibaba heads into its FQ2'23 earnings release on November 17 without disclosing its sales figures for its recently concluded Singles' Day (11.11) sales event.We discuss why even a relatively ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4556789-alibaba-refinement-zero-covid-policy-lifts-market-sentiments\">Source Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"BABA":"阿里巴巴","09988":"阿里巴巴-W"},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4556789-alibaba-refinement-zero-covid-policy-lifts-market-sentiments","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2282457893","content_text":"SummaryAlibaba heads into its FQ2'23 earnings release on November 17 without disclosing its sales figures for its recently concluded Singles' Day (11.11) sales event.We discuss why even a relatively weak FQ2 earnings release should not impact the potential re-rating of BABA as China has started to refine its zero COVID policy.At these levels, the reward/risk setup pointing to the upside remains attractive, with an earlier reopening likely spurring further buying momentum.Maintain Strong Buy with a PT of $90.Robert WayThis article is written by JR Research for reference only. Please note the risks.ThesisAlibaba Group Holding Limited (NYSE:BABA) heads into its highly-anticipated FQ2'23 (quarter ended September 30) earnings release on November 17, even as it held back from reporting actual sales figures for its 2022 Singles' Day (11.11) sales event for the first time.Alibaba reported that its 11.11 event \"[delivered GMV] for brands in line with [2021] despite economic and COVID-related headwinds.\" Notably, Alibaba reported a gross merchandise value (GMV) of RMB540.3B for 2021's 11.11 event.Therefore, all eyes will be on CEO Daniel Zhang & team on November 17, as Bloomberg had reported earlier that Alibaba's 11.11 event \"may suffer a decline unprecedented in the event's 14-year history.\"Despite that, BABA has outperformed the S&P 500 (SPX) (SP500) since we upgraded it to Strong Buy in our previous article. Moreover, BABA's recent recovery was bolstered by the anticipation of a progressive easing of COVID policy. As such, the positive reaction by the market was not surprising.We discuss why we glean that the mean reversion move for BABA remains attractive at the current levels. Despite the massive pessimism seen as investors further de-rated China's political risks, BABA's price action remains constructive. Coupled with a well-beaten-down valuation in line with its Hong Kong tech peers, we assess that BABA's reward/risk profile remains attractive.Maintain Strong Buy with a medium-term price target (PT) of $90.Refinement Of China's COVID Policy Is Good ProgressChina lifted the market's sentiments last week as the newly installed Politburo Standing Committee (PSC) highlighted the need for \"more decisive\" measures, as Bloomberg reported:In a meeting of the new Politburo Standing Committee, the members called for more decisive measures to curb the spread of the virus so as to resume normal life and production as soon as possible, according to the Xinhua News Agency. - BloombergTherefore the \"20 measures\" rolled out by China's State Council and National Health Commission that reduced centralized quarantine time and flight suspension penalties were not expected by the market. Moreover, it occurred while COVID cases continued rising. Bloomberg reported that China's COVID cases increased to 11.3K on Friday (November 11), breaking above 10K for the first time since April on Thursday.Furthermore, some cities actually reduced mass testing despite the rising cases. Hence, we believe the odds for a progressive ending in COVID zero are increasingly likely.Still, investors should not rule out Beijing tightening its COVID policy again if COVID cases continue to rise higher, or even spike. China has maintained that the recent measures do not indicate that China has moved to living with the virus. Stamping out COVID expeditiously remains the guiding principle of its policy measures. As such, investors should expect near-term downside volatility if Beijing tightens further.What's Next For Alibaba?Alibaba Revenue change % and Adjusted EBITDA change % consensus estimates (S&P Cap IQ)Therefore, we think the thesis for a bottoming in Alibaba's revenue and profitability growth by FY23 (year ending March 2023) is increasingly likely.China's hand has likely been forced by the worsening global macroeconomic headwinds that has added significant stress to its domestic malaise. Moreover, China's trade surplus weakened further in October as exports fell for the first time since May 2020, down 0.3% YoY.Furthermore, China's producer price index (PPI) declined 1.3% YoY in October, down for the first time in over two years. Hence, the disinflation signals are building up in China's economy, likely spurring policymakers to act more urgently to arrest China's economic malaise.Therefore, while Alibaba may report a relatively tepid or even lower-than-project FQ2 earnings release, the market is already looking ahead. While still early, Goldman Sachs had previously highlighted that it expected a reopening in the \"second quarter of [2023].\" Therefore, we believe Wall Street's estimates have been predicated on such a possibility.Given that China has already started to set the wheels in motion, despite the surge in COVID cases, we believe the reward/risk for an earlier exit is likely pointing to the upside.Is BABA Stock A Buy, Sell, Or Hold?BABA price chart (weekly) (TradingView)We emphasized in our previous update that BABA has two robust support zones that could see buyers defending vigorously against further selling pressure.Therefore, even after the market forced sellers to give up after it broke below its March lows, buyers came in to defend its October 2015 levels ($57). That level appears to have been defended resolutely, which suggests that the market pulled the rug on weak holders who added the dips in March/May 2022.Notwithstanding, we still need BABA to retake its March level and sit above it decisively for our thesis of a mean-reversion setup toward the $95 level to play out accordingly.With China moving progressively away from its zero COVID strategy, we believe the potential for Alibaba to outperform the markedly downgraded consensus projections is looking increasingly likely.Maintain Strong Buy with a medium-term PT of $90.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"BABA":1,"09988":0.6}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1199,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9985611935,"gmtCreate":1667370263228,"gmtModify":1676537906653,"author":{"id":"3574914526090483","authorId":"3574914526090483","name":"yeelyn18","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ae47c3e96729c68a0234dd22850dfe69","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3574914526090483","authorIdStr":"3574914526090483"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"K","listText":"K","text":"K","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":8,"commentSize":3,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9985611935","repostId":"1179075819","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1179075819","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1667367390,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1179075819?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2022-11-02 13:36","market":"us","language":"en","title":"The Fed’s Next Big Rate Hike Is Coming. Why Powell Won’t Say the End Is Near","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1179075819","media":"Barron's","summary":"The Federal Reserve will fire its next salvo in the war against inflation on Wednesday afternoon. Th","content":"<html><head></head><body><p>The Federal Reserve will fire its next salvo in the war against inflation on Wednesday afternoon. That is likely to include an interest-rate increase of 0.75 percentage points and a hawkish tone from Chairman Jerome Powell at his post-meeting press conference. Markets won’t get their much-anticipated all-clear signal from the Fed.</p><p>Futures markets are overwhelmingly pricing in a fed-funds rate target range of 3.75% to 4.00% after this week’s meeting of the Federal Open Market Committee, which began on Tuesday. That would mean the sixth rate hike of 2022 and fourth-straight 0.75 percentage-point bump. The committee’s policy statement is out at 2 p.m. ET and Powell speaks at 2:30 p.m. ET.</p><p>There is reason to believe the Fed is much closer to the end of its hiking cycle than the beginning. Just don’t expect Powell to say as much.</p><p>“The Fed’s best hand is to hike [0.75 percentage point] and otherwise zip it,” writes Richard Farr, chief market strategist at Merion Capital Group.</p><p>Several indicators of economic activity have slowed over the past year, particularly in interest-rate sensitive areas of the economy such as housing. Economies abroad are in tougher shape. The labor market is a key holdout in the U.S.: The unemployment rate is at 3.5% and jobs and wages are still growing. The so-called wage-price spiral is helping to keep core inflation uncomfortably high, up 8.2% in the year through September.</p><p>Futures markets are pricing in the greatest odds of a peak, or terminal, rate of 5.00% to 5.25% sometime in the first half of 2023, then a decline by the end of next year. Investors and traders have been fixated lately on the prospects of a “Fed pivot,” or the moment when the central bank moves its stance from tightening to loosening policy, or at least pausing hikes and holding rates steady for some time.</p><p>All fall long, risk assets have rallied in unison on days when the collective mood leaned toward a closer pivot, and sold off on the reverse days. Part of the Fed’s dilemma is that monetary policy works with “long and variable lags,” in the words of Milton Friedman. That means that it will take time for higher interest rates to affect the real economy and damp inflation, and it might make sense to slow or stop rate hikes before inflation is anywhere near a comfortable level.</p><p>A sign that FOMC members see a looming end to rate hikes could come in the policy statement. Watch for an alternation or removal of the line from the prior statement that says the committee “anticipates that ongoing increases in the target range will be appropriate.”</p><p>“They are working hard to ensure that inflationary psychology is routed,” writes John Vail, chief global strategist at Nikko Asset Management. “Not just one negative data point, but a string of such over a period of months is required for a change in the Fed stance from its current data-dependent, but generally hawkish bias, to something a bit more neutral.”</p><p>Any indication of such a shift in Fed policy will be interpreted by the market as dovish, prompting rallies in stocks and bonds. A bond rally would push down yields and make financial conditions easier, working against the Fed’s tightening and inflation fight.</p><p>So, expect Powell to remain hawkish in his remarks on Wednesday, even if the chairman believes that a pivot or pause may soon be warranted.</p><p>“The problem is the moment he relinquishes this hawkish stance—the moment he utters anything remotely resembling a dovish word—is the moment financial conditions ease far more than what we’ve seen over the last few weeks,” writes RBC Capital Markets chief U.S. economist Tom Porcelli. “As much as we think this hiking cycle is virtually over and should be over, we just don’t see how there is any incentive for him to suggest as much right now given the financial conditions consideration.”</p><p>The opposite risk of over-tightening also exists. Inflation needs to come down, and it may cost a recession to get there. The longer the Fed keeps rates higher, the lower the return investors can expect from many asset classes.</p><p>Officials will get a look at two months of employment and Consumer Price Index readings before the FOMC next meets in December. Those could go a long way toward determining the details of the central bank’s next moves. For now, however, the message will remain “we still have work to do.”</p></body></html>","source":"lsy1610680873436","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>The Fed’s Next Big Rate Hike Is Coming. Why Powell Won’t Say the End Is Near</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nThe Fed’s Next Big Rate Hike Is Coming. Why Powell Won’t Say the End Is Near\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2022-11-02 13:36 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://www.marketwatch.com/articles/the-feds-next-big-rate-hike-is-coming-why-powell-wont-say-the-end-is-near-51667341692?mod=mw_latestnews><strong>Barron's</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>The Federal Reserve will fire its next salvo in the war against inflation on Wednesday afternoon. That is likely to include an interest-rate increase of 0.75 percentage points and a hawkish tone from ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://www.marketwatch.com/articles/the-feds-next-big-rate-hike-is-coming-why-powell-wont-say-the-end-is-near-51667341692?mod=mw_latestnews\">Source Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{".SPX":"S&P 500 Index",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite",".DJI":"道琼斯"},"source_url":"https://www.marketwatch.com/articles/the-feds-next-big-rate-hike-is-coming-why-powell-wont-say-the-end-is-near-51667341692?mod=mw_latestnews","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1179075819","content_text":"The Federal Reserve will fire its next salvo in the war against inflation on Wednesday afternoon. That is likely to include an interest-rate increase of 0.75 percentage points and a hawkish tone from Chairman Jerome Powell at his post-meeting press conference. Markets won’t get their much-anticipated all-clear signal from the Fed.Futures markets are overwhelmingly pricing in a fed-funds rate target range of 3.75% to 4.00% after this week’s meeting of the Federal Open Market Committee, which began on Tuesday. That would mean the sixth rate hike of 2022 and fourth-straight 0.75 percentage-point bump. The committee’s policy statement is out at 2 p.m. ET and Powell speaks at 2:30 p.m. ET.There is reason to believe the Fed is much closer to the end of its hiking cycle than the beginning. Just don’t expect Powell to say as much.“The Fed’s best hand is to hike [0.75 percentage point] and otherwise zip it,” writes Richard Farr, chief market strategist at Merion Capital Group.Several indicators of economic activity have slowed over the past year, particularly in interest-rate sensitive areas of the economy such as housing. Economies abroad are in tougher shape. The labor market is a key holdout in the U.S.: The unemployment rate is at 3.5% and jobs and wages are still growing. The so-called wage-price spiral is helping to keep core inflation uncomfortably high, up 8.2% in the year through September.Futures markets are pricing in the greatest odds of a peak, or terminal, rate of 5.00% to 5.25% sometime in the first half of 2023, then a decline by the end of next year. Investors and traders have been fixated lately on the prospects of a “Fed pivot,” or the moment when the central bank moves its stance from tightening to loosening policy, or at least pausing hikes and holding rates steady for some time.All fall long, risk assets have rallied in unison on days when the collective mood leaned toward a closer pivot, and sold off on the reverse days. Part of the Fed’s dilemma is that monetary policy works with “long and variable lags,” in the words of Milton Friedman. That means that it will take time for higher interest rates to affect the real economy and damp inflation, and it might make sense to slow or stop rate hikes before inflation is anywhere near a comfortable level.A sign that FOMC members see a looming end to rate hikes could come in the policy statement. Watch for an alternation or removal of the line from the prior statement that says the committee “anticipates that ongoing increases in the target range will be appropriate.”“They are working hard to ensure that inflationary psychology is routed,” writes John Vail, chief global strategist at Nikko Asset Management. “Not just one negative data point, but a string of such over a period of months is required for a change in the Fed stance from its current data-dependent, but generally hawkish bias, to something a bit more neutral.”Any indication of such a shift in Fed policy will be interpreted by the market as dovish, prompting rallies in stocks and bonds. A bond rally would push down yields and make financial conditions easier, working against the Fed’s tightening and inflation fight.So, expect Powell to remain hawkish in his remarks on Wednesday, even if the chairman believes that a pivot or pause may soon be warranted.“The problem is the moment he relinquishes this hawkish stance—the moment he utters anything remotely resembling a dovish word—is the moment financial conditions ease far more than what we’ve seen over the last few weeks,” writes RBC Capital Markets chief U.S. economist Tom Porcelli. “As much as we think this hiking cycle is virtually over and should be over, we just don’t see how there is any incentive for him to suggest as much right now given the financial conditions consideration.”The opposite risk of over-tightening also exists. Inflation needs to come down, and it may cost a recession to get there. The longer the Fed keeps rates higher, the lower the return investors can expect from many asset classes.Officials will get a look at two months of employment and Consumer Price Index readings before the FOMC next meets in December. Those could go a long way toward determining the details of the central bank’s next moves. For now, however, the message will remain “we still have work to do.”","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{".SPX":0.9,"SGXZ80611742":0.9,".DJI":0.9,".IXIC":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1004,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9985990634,"gmtCreate":1667283907328,"gmtModify":1676537891143,"author":{"id":"3574914526090483","authorId":"3574914526090483","name":"yeelyn18","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ae47c3e96729c68a0234dd22850dfe69","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3574914526090483","authorIdStr":"3574914526090483"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"K","listText":"K","text":"K","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9985990634","repostId":"1180963465","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1180963465","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1667262471,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1180963465?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2022-11-01 08:27","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Apple and Microsoft Market Caps Reached Their Largest Spread on Record — at Roughly Tesla’s Entire Valuation","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1180963465","media":"MarketWatch","summary":"The divergent performances of Apple Inc. and Microsoft Corp. in the wake of their latest earnings re","content":"<html><head></head><body><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4062ea999ad9a74269b4289fac8b8890\" tg-width=\"700\" tg-height=\"466\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/>The divergent performances of Apple Inc. and Microsoft Corp. in the wake of their latest earnings reports widened the spread between the two companies’ market values to the largest on record at more than $700 billion to close out last week.</p><p>Apple finished Friday’s trading session with a<b> $2.48 trillion valuation</b>, while Microsoft ended the week with a <b>$1.76 trillion valuation</b>. The $719.24 billion spread between those two market caps was the widest record and nearly as much as Tesla Inc.’s entire market cap of<b> $721.61 billion</b>, according to Dow Jones Market Data.</p><p>The spread has narrowed a bit with Monday morning’s trading action, as Apple shares are off 1.8% and Microsoft shares are down 1.5%. Apple’s market value is now $698.40 billion larger than Microsoft’s, with that spread again similar to Tesla’s  current valuation.</p><p>While Apple shares rallied 7.6% in Friday trading after the company posted a large revenue beat in its Mac segment and indicated that iPhone demand was strong despite supply challenges, Microsoft shares lost 7.7% Wednesday as the company’s most recent earnings report fueled concerns about cloud growth.</p><p>Combined, Apple’s and Microsoft’s market caps made up 42% of the market cap of all Dow Jones Industrial Average components as of Friday’s close.</p><p>Apple’s price-to-earnings ratio on a next-12-months basis is also higher than Microsoft’s in a somewhat rare occurrence. While the smartphone giant’s forward P/E has been higher than Microsoft’s during several days in September and October, it hadn’t been above Microsoft’s before those instances since January 2021, per Dow Jones Market Data, based on FactSet data.</p><p>Apple had a 24.48 P/E ahead of Monday’s open, while Microsoft’s was 23.25.</p><p>Shares of both names remain down on the year, however, with Microsoft’s stock off 31% over the course of 2022 and Apple’s off 14%. Together, Apple, Microsoft, Alphabet Inc., Amazon.com Inc., and Meta Platforms Inc. have shed $3 trillion in market value so far this year.</p></body></html>","source":"lsy1603348471595","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Apple and Microsoft Market Caps Reached Their Largest Spread on Record — at Roughly Tesla’s Entire Valuation</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nApple and Microsoft Market Caps Reached Their Largest Spread on Record — at Roughly Tesla’s Entire Valuation\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2022-11-01 08:27 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://www.marketwatch.com/story/apple-and-microsoft-market-caps-reached-their-largest-spread-on-record-at-roughly-teslas-entire-valuation-11667226567><strong>MarketWatch</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>The divergent performances of Apple Inc. and Microsoft Corp. in the wake of their latest earnings reports widened the spread between the two companies’ market values to the largest on record at more ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://www.marketwatch.com/story/apple-and-microsoft-market-caps-reached-their-largest-spread-on-record-at-roughly-teslas-entire-valuation-11667226567\">Source Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"AAPL":"苹果","TSLA":"特斯拉","MSFT":"微软"},"source_url":"https://www.marketwatch.com/story/apple-and-microsoft-market-caps-reached-their-largest-spread-on-record-at-roughly-teslas-entire-valuation-11667226567","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1180963465","content_text":"The divergent performances of Apple Inc. and Microsoft Corp. in the wake of their latest earnings reports widened the spread between the two companies’ market values to the largest on record at more than $700 billion to close out last week.Apple finished Friday’s trading session with a $2.48 trillion valuation, while Microsoft ended the week with a $1.76 trillion valuation. The $719.24 billion spread between those two market caps was the widest record and nearly as much as Tesla Inc.’s entire market cap of $721.61 billion, according to Dow Jones Market Data.The spread has narrowed a bit with Monday morning’s trading action, as Apple shares are off 1.8% and Microsoft shares are down 1.5%. Apple’s market value is now $698.40 billion larger than Microsoft’s, with that spread again similar to Tesla’s  current valuation.While Apple shares rallied 7.6% in Friday trading after the company posted a large revenue beat in its Mac segment and indicated that iPhone demand was strong despite supply challenges, Microsoft shares lost 7.7% Wednesday as the company’s most recent earnings report fueled concerns about cloud growth.Combined, Apple’s and Microsoft’s market caps made up 42% of the market cap of all Dow Jones Industrial Average components as of Friday’s close.Apple’s price-to-earnings ratio on a next-12-months basis is also higher than Microsoft’s in a somewhat rare occurrence. While the smartphone giant’s forward P/E has been higher than Microsoft’s during several days in September and October, it hadn’t been above Microsoft’s before those instances since January 2021, per Dow Jones Market Data, based on FactSet data.Apple had a 24.48 P/E ahead of Monday’s open, while Microsoft’s was 23.25.Shares of both names remain down on the year, however, with Microsoft’s stock off 31% over the course of 2022 and Apple’s off 14%. Together, Apple, Microsoft, Alphabet Inc., Amazon.com Inc., and Meta Platforms Inc. have shed $3 trillion in market value so far this year.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"AAPL":0.9,"TSLA":0.9,"MSFT":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1531,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9982249379,"gmtCreate":1667193904191,"gmtModify":1676537874855,"author":{"id":"3574914526090483","authorId":"3574914526090483","name":"yeelyn18","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ae47c3e96729c68a0234dd22850dfe69","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3574914526090483","authorIdStr":"3574914526090483"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/TIGR\">$Tiger Brokers(TIGR)$</a><v-v data-views=\"1\"></v-v>","listText":"<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/TIGR\">$Tiger Brokers(TIGR)$</a><v-v data-views=\"1\"></v-v>","text":"$Tiger Brokers(TIGR)$","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9982249379","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1037,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9982240493,"gmtCreate":1667193778912,"gmtModify":1676537874845,"author":{"id":"3574914526090483","authorId":"3574914526090483","name":"yeelyn18","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ae47c3e96729c68a0234dd22850dfe69","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3574914526090483","authorIdStr":"3574914526090483"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"K","listText":"K","text":"K","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":4,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9982240493","repostId":"1188744789","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1188744789","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1667185398,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1188744789?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2022-10-31 11:03","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Jittery Stock Traders Eye Four Days That Will Sow Market’s Fate","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1188744789","media":"Bloomberg","summary":"Rate decision, jobs and CPI updates, midterm elections comingSpells no reprieve from turbulence set ","content":"<div>\n<p>Rate decision, jobs and CPI updates, midterm elections comingSpells no reprieve from turbulence set off by earning reportsInvestors just got over a hectic week, contending with a blitz of earnings ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2022-10-30/jittery-stock-traders-eye-four-days-that-will-sow-market-s-fate?srnd=premium-asia\">Source Link</a>\n\n</div>\n","source":"lsy1584095487587","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Jittery Stock Traders Eye Four Days That Will Sow Market’s Fate</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; 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overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nJittery Stock Traders Eye Four Days That Will Sow Market’s Fate\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2022-10-31 11:03 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2022-10-30/jittery-stock-traders-eye-four-days-that-will-sow-market-s-fate?srnd=premium-asia><strong>Bloomberg</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>Rate decision, jobs and CPI updates, midterm elections comingSpells no reprieve from turbulence set off by earning reportsInvestors just got over a hectic week, contending with a blitz of earnings ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2022-10-30/jittery-stock-traders-eye-four-days-that-will-sow-market-s-fate?srnd=premium-asia\">Source Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index",".DJI":"道琼斯"},"source_url":"https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2022-10-30/jittery-stock-traders-eye-four-days-that-will-sow-market-s-fate?srnd=premium-asia","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1188744789","content_text":"Rate decision, jobs and CPI updates, midterm elections comingSpells no reprieve from turbulence set off by earning reportsInvestors just got over a hectic week, contending with a blitz of earnings from some of America’s biggest companies as well as a pile of uncertain economic and geopolitical news. But what’s coming may be even worse.In the span of just seven trading sessions, there will be four major events that could shape the market’s outlook for the rest of the year -- and potentially prompt a rapid about-face by confounding expectations.On Nov. 2, the Federal Reserve will announce its latest interest-rate decision and give hints about its path forward, possibly signaling plans to ease back from the aggressive pace of hikes that’s threatening to drive the economy into a recession.Two days later, the October jobs report will provide an important look at how much hiring is slowing. Then on Nov. 8, the mid-term elections may usher in a change in which party controls Congress. And finally, on Nov. 10 there’s the consumer price index, a report that’s played a key role in shaping expectations for the Fed’s path since inflation roared back to a four-decade high.Throw in the ongoing earnings season and Bank of England’s interest-rate decision on Nov. 3, and it’s clear why some on Wall Street are bracing for a renewed jolt of volatility.Here’s what investors are on the lookout for in each of these events.FOMC Rate DecisionWall Street views a fourth straight 75 basis-point interest-rate hike on Nov. 2 as a sure thing. What the Fed signals will happen next is far more significant, with traders increasingly betting that the central bank will start to ease up on its pace in December. The Bank of Canada did just that on Wednesday, providing a potential opening for other central banks to follow suit as recession risks rise.Traders are bracing for larger-than-usual price changes on Nov. 2 and Nov. 10, judging by options expirations over the course of the next two weeks. To SpotGamma founder Brent Kochuba, the Fed’s rate decision is the most crucial of the upcoming events and sets the stage for how the data releases that follow will affect markets.“For volatility traders, it’s the Fed first, everything else second,” Kochuba said. “If monetary policy makers come off as accommodative, that will shift volatility expectations in a big way.”Source: BloombergJobs DayThe October jobs report, released Friday, is expected to show that the unemployment rate increased to 3.6% from 3.5%, edging up from a half-century low. Nonfarm payrolls growth is expected to tick down to 190,000 from 263,000 in September, but that would still indicate continued strength in the labor market.Data on initial jobless claims Thursday indicated the employment market remains tight, while the initial report on third-quarter GDP showed the economy remains on strong footing, both of which suggest it can weather jumbo-sized rate hikes. A stronger-than-expected jobs report for September sent the S&P 500 Index down 2.8% on Oct. 7, its worst jobs-day showing since the summer of 2010. Another upside surprise could dash hopes that the Fed will dial back its rate hikes to half a percentage point in December.Midterm ElectionsStock bulls are hoping for one crucial outcome from the US midterm elections: a divided Congress. Why? Because equities tend to benefit from gridlock in Washington since it tends to produce few if any a major policy shifts.The two most likely outcomes this midterm cycle -- either a Democratic president with a Republican House and a Democrat Senate or a Democratic president with a full Republican Congress -- have benefited equity investors in the past. In each of the scenarios, the S&P 500 has proceeded to post annual gains ranging between 5% and 14%, according to Comerica Wealth Management, which cited data from Strategas Research Partners.“Stocks perform best in a divided government,” Victoria Greene, chief investment officer at G Squared Private Wealth, said. “Balance of power and gridlock is something markets like.”Inflation ReportFew economic announcements have mattered more this year than the consumer price index, given that tamping-down inflation is the central priority of the Fed. Barclays Plc strategists, who plotted the S&P 500’s performance against 10 major economic indicators, found that in the past decade stocks have never reacted as negatively to any economic indicator as they are now to the CPI.“We may have a shot at getting some clarity toward the end of the fourth quarter on whether inflation is slowing and if the Fed will ease up on rate hikes,” Scott Ladner, chief investment officer at Horizon Investments, said in a phone interview. “Then that could provide calmness in the Treasury market and push investors to take on risk in equities once again.”","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{".DJI":0.9,".SPX":0.9,".IXIC":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1146,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9986742009,"gmtCreate":1667025802302,"gmtModify":1676537851770,"author":{"id":"3574914526090483","authorId":"3574914526090483","name":"yeelyn18","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ae47c3e96729c68a0234dd22850dfe69","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3574914526090483","authorIdStr":"3574914526090483"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/TIGR\">$Tiger Brokers(TIGR)$</a><v-v data-views=\"1\"></v-v>Trick or treat!","listText":"<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/TIGR\">$Tiger Brokers(TIGR)$</a><v-v data-views=\"1\"></v-v>Trick or treat!","text":"$Tiger Brokers(TIGR)$Trick or treat!","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9986742009","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1184,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0}],"hots":[{"id":9962390434,"gmtCreate":1669717576928,"gmtModify":1676538227845,"author":{"id":"3574914526090483","authorId":"3574914526090483","name":"yeelyn18","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ae47c3e96729c68a0234dd22850dfe69","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3574914526090483","idStr":"3574914526090483"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"K","listText":"K","text":"K","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":7,"commentSize":4,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9962390434","repostId":"2287354580","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":4306,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9985611935,"gmtCreate":1667370263228,"gmtModify":1676537906653,"author":{"id":"3574914526090483","authorId":"3574914526090483","name":"yeelyn18","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ae47c3e96729c68a0234dd22850dfe69","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3574914526090483","idStr":"3574914526090483"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"K","listText":"K","text":"K","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":8,"commentSize":3,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9985611935","repostId":"1179075819","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1179075819","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1667367390,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1179075819?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2022-11-02 13:36","market":"us","language":"en","title":"The Fed’s Next Big Rate Hike Is Coming. Why Powell Won’t Say the End Is Near","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1179075819","media":"Barron's","summary":"The Federal Reserve will fire its next salvo in the war against inflation on Wednesday afternoon. Th","content":"<html><head></head><body><p>The Federal Reserve will fire its next salvo in the war against inflation on Wednesday afternoon. That is likely to include an interest-rate increase of 0.75 percentage points and a hawkish tone from Chairman Jerome Powell at his post-meeting press conference. Markets won’t get their much-anticipated all-clear signal from the Fed.</p><p>Futures markets are overwhelmingly pricing in a fed-funds rate target range of 3.75% to 4.00% after this week’s meeting of the Federal Open Market Committee, which began on Tuesday. That would mean the sixth rate hike of 2022 and fourth-straight 0.75 percentage-point bump. The committee’s policy statement is out at 2 p.m. ET and Powell speaks at 2:30 p.m. ET.</p><p>There is reason to believe the Fed is much closer to the end of its hiking cycle than the beginning. Just don’t expect Powell to say as much.</p><p>“The Fed’s best hand is to hike [0.75 percentage point] and otherwise zip it,” writes Richard Farr, chief market strategist at Merion Capital Group.</p><p>Several indicators of economic activity have slowed over the past year, particularly in interest-rate sensitive areas of the economy such as housing. Economies abroad are in tougher shape. The labor market is a key holdout in the U.S.: The unemployment rate is at 3.5% and jobs and wages are still growing. The so-called wage-price spiral is helping to keep core inflation uncomfortably high, up 8.2% in the year through September.</p><p>Futures markets are pricing in the greatest odds of a peak, or terminal, rate of 5.00% to 5.25% sometime in the first half of 2023, then a decline by the end of next year. Investors and traders have been fixated lately on the prospects of a “Fed pivot,” or the moment when the central bank moves its stance from tightening to loosening policy, or at least pausing hikes and holding rates steady for some time.</p><p>All fall long, risk assets have rallied in unison on days when the collective mood leaned toward a closer pivot, and sold off on the reverse days. Part of the Fed’s dilemma is that monetary policy works with “long and variable lags,” in the words of Milton Friedman. That means that it will take time for higher interest rates to affect the real economy and damp inflation, and it might make sense to slow or stop rate hikes before inflation is anywhere near a comfortable level.</p><p>A sign that FOMC members see a looming end to rate hikes could come in the policy statement. Watch for an alternation or removal of the line from the prior statement that says the committee “anticipates that ongoing increases in the target range will be appropriate.”</p><p>“They are working hard to ensure that inflationary psychology is routed,” writes John Vail, chief global strategist at Nikko Asset Management. “Not just one negative data point, but a string of such over a period of months is required for a change in the Fed stance from its current data-dependent, but generally hawkish bias, to something a bit more neutral.”</p><p>Any indication of such a shift in Fed policy will be interpreted by the market as dovish, prompting rallies in stocks and bonds. A bond rally would push down yields and make financial conditions easier, working against the Fed’s tightening and inflation fight.</p><p>So, expect Powell to remain hawkish in his remarks on Wednesday, even if the chairman believes that a pivot or pause may soon be warranted.</p><p>“The problem is the moment he relinquishes this hawkish stance—the moment he utters anything remotely resembling a dovish word—is the moment financial conditions ease far more than what we’ve seen over the last few weeks,” writes RBC Capital Markets chief U.S. economist Tom Porcelli. “As much as we think this hiking cycle is virtually over and should be over, we just don’t see how there is any incentive for him to suggest as much right now given the financial conditions consideration.”</p><p>The opposite risk of over-tightening also exists. Inflation needs to come down, and it may cost a recession to get there. The longer the Fed keeps rates higher, the lower the return investors can expect from many asset classes.</p><p>Officials will get a look at two months of employment and Consumer Price Index readings before the FOMC next meets in December. Those could go a long way toward determining the details of the central bank’s next moves. For now, however, the message will remain “we still have work to do.”</p></body></html>","source":"lsy1610680873436","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>The Fed’s Next Big Rate Hike Is Coming. Why Powell Won’t Say the End Is Near</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nThe Fed’s Next Big Rate Hike Is Coming. Why Powell Won’t Say the End Is Near\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2022-11-02 13:36 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://www.marketwatch.com/articles/the-feds-next-big-rate-hike-is-coming-why-powell-wont-say-the-end-is-near-51667341692?mod=mw_latestnews><strong>Barron's</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>The Federal Reserve will fire its next salvo in the war against inflation on Wednesday afternoon. That is likely to include an interest-rate increase of 0.75 percentage points and a hawkish tone from ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://www.marketwatch.com/articles/the-feds-next-big-rate-hike-is-coming-why-powell-wont-say-the-end-is-near-51667341692?mod=mw_latestnews\">Source Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{".SPX":"S&P 500 Index",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite",".DJI":"道琼斯"},"source_url":"https://www.marketwatch.com/articles/the-feds-next-big-rate-hike-is-coming-why-powell-wont-say-the-end-is-near-51667341692?mod=mw_latestnews","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1179075819","content_text":"The Federal Reserve will fire its next salvo in the war against inflation on Wednesday afternoon. That is likely to include an interest-rate increase of 0.75 percentage points and a hawkish tone from Chairman Jerome Powell at his post-meeting press conference. Markets won’t get their much-anticipated all-clear signal from the Fed.Futures markets are overwhelmingly pricing in a fed-funds rate target range of 3.75% to 4.00% after this week’s meeting of the Federal Open Market Committee, which began on Tuesday. That would mean the sixth rate hike of 2022 and fourth-straight 0.75 percentage-point bump. The committee’s policy statement is out at 2 p.m. ET and Powell speaks at 2:30 p.m. ET.There is reason to believe the Fed is much closer to the end of its hiking cycle than the beginning. Just don’t expect Powell to say as much.“The Fed’s best hand is to hike [0.75 percentage point] and otherwise zip it,” writes Richard Farr, chief market strategist at Merion Capital Group.Several indicators of economic activity have slowed over the past year, particularly in interest-rate sensitive areas of the economy such as housing. Economies abroad are in tougher shape. The labor market is a key holdout in the U.S.: The unemployment rate is at 3.5% and jobs and wages are still growing. The so-called wage-price spiral is helping to keep core inflation uncomfortably high, up 8.2% in the year through September.Futures markets are pricing in the greatest odds of a peak, or terminal, rate of 5.00% to 5.25% sometime in the first half of 2023, then a decline by the end of next year. Investors and traders have been fixated lately on the prospects of a “Fed pivot,” or the moment when the central bank moves its stance from tightening to loosening policy, or at least pausing hikes and holding rates steady for some time.All fall long, risk assets have rallied in unison on days when the collective mood leaned toward a closer pivot, and sold off on the reverse days. Part of the Fed’s dilemma is that monetary policy works with “long and variable lags,” in the words of Milton Friedman. That means that it will take time for higher interest rates to affect the real economy and damp inflation, and it might make sense to slow or stop rate hikes before inflation is anywhere near a comfortable level.A sign that FOMC members see a looming end to rate hikes could come in the policy statement. Watch for an alternation or removal of the line from the prior statement that says the committee “anticipates that ongoing increases in the target range will be appropriate.”“They are working hard to ensure that inflationary psychology is routed,” writes John Vail, chief global strategist at Nikko Asset Management. “Not just one negative data point, but a string of such over a period of months is required for a change in the Fed stance from its current data-dependent, but generally hawkish bias, to something a bit more neutral.”Any indication of such a shift in Fed policy will be interpreted by the market as dovish, prompting rallies in stocks and bonds. A bond rally would push down yields and make financial conditions easier, working against the Fed’s tightening and inflation fight.So, expect Powell to remain hawkish in his remarks on Wednesday, even if the chairman believes that a pivot or pause may soon be warranted.“The problem is the moment he relinquishes this hawkish stance—the moment he utters anything remotely resembling a dovish word—is the moment financial conditions ease far more than what we’ve seen over the last few weeks,” writes RBC Capital Markets chief U.S. economist Tom Porcelli. “As much as we think this hiking cycle is virtually over and should be over, we just don’t see how there is any incentive for him to suggest as much right now given the financial conditions consideration.”The opposite risk of over-tightening also exists. Inflation needs to come down, and it may cost a recession to get there. The longer the Fed keeps rates higher, the lower the return investors can expect from many asset classes.Officials will get a look at two months of employment and Consumer Price Index readings before the FOMC next meets in December. Those could go a long way toward determining the details of the central bank’s next moves. For now, however, the message will remain “we still have work to do.”","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{".SPX":0.9,"SGXZ80611742":0.9,".DJI":0.9,".IXIC":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1004,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9013597263,"gmtCreate":1648742634058,"gmtModify":1676534390000,"author":{"id":"3574914526090483","authorId":"3574914526090483","name":"yeelyn18","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ae47c3e96729c68a0234dd22850dfe69","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3574914526090483","idStr":"3574914526090483"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"K","listText":"K","text":"K","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":7,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9013597263","repostId":"1182000136","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1182000136","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1648740552,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1182000136?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2022-03-31 23:29","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Stocks Set for First Losing Quarter in Two Years: Markets Wrap","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1182000136","media":"Bloomberg","summary":"S&P 500 declines, Treasuries pare losses as oil prices fallPutin says gas exports will halt if ruble","content":"<div>\n<p>S&P 500 declines, Treasuries pare losses as oil prices fallPutin says gas exports will halt if ruble payments not madeU.S. stocks stumbled toward the first losing quarter since the pandemic bear ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2022-03-30/asia-stocks-set-for-cautious-start-on-war-concern-markets-wrap\">Source Link</a>\n\n</div>\n","source":"lsy1584095487587","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Stocks Set for First Losing Quarter in Two Years: Markets Wrap</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; 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overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nStocks Set for First Losing Quarter in Two Years: Markets Wrap\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2022-03-31 23:29 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2022-03-30/asia-stocks-set-for-cautious-start-on-war-concern-markets-wrap><strong>Bloomberg</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>S&P 500 declines, Treasuries pare losses as oil prices fallPutin says gas exports will halt if ruble payments not madeU.S. stocks stumbled toward the first losing quarter since the pandemic bear ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2022-03-30/asia-stocks-set-for-cautious-start-on-war-concern-markets-wrap\">Source Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{".SPX":"S&P 500 Index",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite","DIA":"道琼斯ETF"},"source_url":"https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2022-03-30/asia-stocks-set-for-cautious-start-on-war-concern-markets-wrap","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1182000136","content_text":"S&P 500 declines, Treasuries pare losses as oil prices fallPutin says gas exports will halt if ruble payments not madeU.S. stocks stumbled toward the first losing quarter since the pandemic bear market while Treasuries pared the worst losses in at least five decades. Oil slumped, but held above $100 a barrel in New York.Moves in most financial markets were muted on the final day of a quarter that brought the twin threats of hawkish central banks bent on tamping down runaway inflation and the war in Ukraine. The S&P 500 edged lower, taking its loss in the three months to 3.6%, the most since March 2020. The two-year Treasury yield was steady after its 150 basis-point surge that is the most since 1984. Ten-year rates slipped, narrowing the spread to shorter tenors, as investors remain on edge over the threat a restrictive Federal Reserve will cause a recession.Stocks, sovereign bonds and corporate credit all got hammered in the year’s first months amid concerns about a growth slowdown as central banks move to tackle inflation by withdrawing stimulus. Investors who piled into commodities fared best, riding massive gains in everything from oil to nickel and wheat. Yet the increases have exacerbated price concerns and may lead to a sharper response from central banks.“The recent rally has masked a lot of pain over the past three months,” wrote Matt Maley, chief market strategist at Miller Tabak + Co.A decline Thursday would mark the S&P 500’s 35th down day this year, the greatest number of first-quarter drawdowns since 1984, according to data compiled by Bloomberg.Oil slid as the U.S. said it will release roughly a million barrels of oil a day from its reserves for six months, reversing an earlier price rebound ahead of an OPEC+ supply meeting. Meanwhile, stocks fell as U.S. inflation-adjusted spending declined last month as prices tempered demand.Brent and West Texas Intermediate prices dropped about 4%, and European natural gas fell as Russia said it would halt gas contracts if buyers don’t pay in rubles.“Aside from quarter-end considerations, oil is very much the center of attention,” Simon Ballard, chief economist at First Abu Dhabi Bank, wrote in a note to investors. Still, “all the usual suspects are still in play, keeping the market in check, including the specter of the Fed pursuing an aggressive path of monetary policy normalization over the coming months.”Markets now see a strong chance the Federal Reserve will lift rates by a half point at its May meeting. The U.S. 2-year yield briefly exceeded the 10-year for the first time since 2019 on Tuesday, inverting yet another segment of the Treasury curve and reinforcing the view that Fed rate increases may cause a recession.“This week’s brief inversion in the U.S. bond market, combined with elevated volatility on Treasury options, is a warning that the risk of U.S. recession should not be ignored,” wrote Lewis Grant, a senior portfolio manager at Federated Hermes. “U.S. bond markets are showing signs of stress. This is not mirrored in equities, where the VIX remains subdued and U.S. indexes trade above their pre-war levels. The bond market would appear to have a better handle on the potential risks.”Some key events to watch this week:U.S. jobs report, FridaySome of the main moves in markets:StocksThe S&P 500 fell 0.1% as of 11:13 a.m. New York timeThe Nasdaq 100 fell 0.2%The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 0.3%The Stoxx Europe 600 fell 0.7%The MSCI World index fell 0.4%CurrenciesThe Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index was little changedThe euro fell 0.4% to $1.1116The British pound rose 0.2% to $1.3161The Japanese yen rose 0.3% to 121.42 per dollarBondsThe yield on 10-year Treasuries declined two basis points to 2.33%Germany’s 10-year yield declined 10 basis points to 0.54%Britain’s 10-year yield declined four basis points to 1.62%CommoditiesWest Texas Intermediate crude fell 4.2% to $103.32 a barrelGold futures rose 0.4% to $1,946.10 an ounce","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"DIA":0.9,".IXIC":0.9,".SPX":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":772,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":817494763,"gmtCreate":1630979072752,"gmtModify":1676530432812,"author":{"id":"3574914526090483","authorId":"3574914526090483","name":"yeelyn18","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ae47c3e96729c68a0234dd22850dfe69","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3574914526090483","idStr":"3574914526090483"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Nice","listText":"Nice","text":"Nice","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":7,"commentSize":2,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/817494763","repostId":"1171873960","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1171873960","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1630978645,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1171873960?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2021-09-07 09:37","market":"hk","language":"en","title":"Hong Kong: Stocks begin day on positive note","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1171873960","media":"AFP","summary":"Hong Kong stocks opened slightly higher Tuesday morning, extending a general advance in recent weeks","content":"<p>Hong Kong stocks opened slightly higher Tuesday morning, extending a general advance in recent weeks fuelled by recovery hopes and easing concerns about China's regulatory crackdown.</p>\n<p>The Hang Seng Index added 0.17 per cent or 43.59 points to 26,207.22.</p>\n<p>The Shanghai Composite was flat, inching 0.15 point lower to 3,621.71, while the Shenzhen Composite Index on China's second exchange was also hardly moved, ticking down 0.55 point to 2,462.81.</p>","source":"lsy1605843958005","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Hong Kong: Stocks begin day on positive note</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nHong Kong: Stocks begin day on positive note\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-09-07 09:37 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://www.businesstimes.com.sg/stocks/hong-kong-stocks-begin-day-on-positive-note><strong>AFP</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>Hong Kong stocks opened slightly higher Tuesday morning, extending a general advance in recent weeks fuelled by recovery hopes and easing concerns about China's regulatory crackdown.\nThe Hang Seng ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://www.businesstimes.com.sg/stocks/hong-kong-stocks-begin-day-on-positive-note\">Source Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"HSCEI":"国企指数","HSCCI":"红筹指数","HSI":"恒生指数","HSTECH":"恒生科技指数"},"source_url":"https://www.businesstimes.com.sg/stocks/hong-kong-stocks-begin-day-on-positive-note","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1171873960","content_text":"Hong Kong stocks opened slightly higher Tuesday morning, extending a general advance in recent weeks fuelled by recovery hopes and easing concerns about China's regulatory crackdown.\nThe Hang Seng Index added 0.17 per cent or 43.59 points to 26,207.22.\nThe Shanghai Composite was flat, inching 0.15 point lower to 3,621.71, while the Shenzhen Composite Index on China's second exchange was also hardly moved, ticking down 0.55 point to 2,462.81.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"HSI":0.9,"HSCEI":0.9,"HSTECH":0.9,"HSCCI":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":619,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9039590789,"gmtCreate":1646067436690,"gmtModify":1676534087372,"author":{"id":"3574914526090483","authorId":"3574914526090483","name":"yeelyn18","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ae47c3e96729c68a0234dd22850dfe69","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3574914526090483","idStr":"3574914526090483"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"K","listText":"K","text":"K","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":6,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9039590789","repostId":"1132135264","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1132135264","kind":"news","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"Providing stock market headlines, business news, financials and earnings ","home_visible":1,"media_name":"Tiger Newspress","id":"1079075236","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba"},"pubTimestamp":1646059871,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1132135264?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2022-02-28 22:51","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Sea Limited Shares Gained Nearly 5% in Morning Trading","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1132135264","media":"Tiger Newspress","summary":"Sea Limited shares gained nearly 5% in morning trading.Sea Limited is set to release fourth-quarter ","content":"<html><head></head><body><p>Sea Limited shares gained nearly 5% in morning trading.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8e4e89729abc3b35ab18cd8bb0bcdc2e\" tg-width=\"843\" tg-height=\"618\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><b>Sea Limited</b> is set to release fourth-quarter 2021 results on Mar 1.</p><p>The Zacks Consensus Estimate for loss has widened by 3 cents to 94 cents per share over the past 30 days. Sea Limited reported a loss of 87 cents per share in the year-ago quarter.</p><p>The consensus mark for revenues is currently pegged at $2.97 billion, indicating 47.96% growth from the year-ago quarter’s reported figure.</p><p>The company’s earnings missed the Zacks Consensus Estimate in all of the trailing four quarters, the negative earnings surprise being 56.04%.</p><p>Let’s see how things have shaped up before this announcement.</p><p><b>Factors at Play for Q4 Results</b></p><p>Sea Limited&#39;s digital entertainment (Garena) and e-commerce businesses are expected to continue to capitalize on changing consumer behavior in the fourth quarter.</p><p>Garena is likely to have benefited from the continued popularity of Free Fireamid stiff competition from<b>Tencent</b>TCEHY.</p><p>Per SensorTowerdata, in google play, Free Firewas the second most revenue-generating game worldwide in December 2021, beating Tencent&#39;s PUBG Mobile. Free Fire was also the highest-grossing game in October 2021.</p><p>The company&#39;s e-commerce segment is likely to have gained traction from a strong uptick in Shopee, its online shopping platform. Additionally, SeaMoney&#39;s strengthening integration with Shopee is expected to have aided Sea&#39;s digital financial services business.</p><p>Higher expenses related to the expansion of e-commerce services and continued efforts to integrate the company&#39;s mobile wallet services with the Shopee platform across different markets are expected to have negatively impacted profitability in the to-be-reported quarter.</p><p><b>What Our Model Indicates</b></p><p>Per the Zacks model, the combination of a positive Earnings ESP and a Zacks Rank #1 (Strong Buy), 2 (Buy) or 3 (Hold) increases the odds of an earnings beat. But that&#39;s not the case here.</p><p>Sea Limited has an Earnings ESP of -6.95% and a Zacks Rank #4 (Sell). You can uncover the best stocks to buy or sell before they&#39;re reported with our Earnings ESP Filter.</p></body></html>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Sea Limited Shares Gained Nearly 5% in Morning Trading</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nSea Limited Shares Gained Nearly 5% in Morning Trading\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/1079075236\">\n\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">Tiger Newspress </p>\n<p class=\"h-time\">2022-02-28 22:51</p>\n</div>\n\n</a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<html><head></head><body><p>Sea Limited shares gained nearly 5% in morning trading.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8e4e89729abc3b35ab18cd8bb0bcdc2e\" tg-width=\"843\" tg-height=\"618\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><b>Sea Limited</b> is set to release fourth-quarter 2021 results on Mar 1.</p><p>The Zacks Consensus Estimate for loss has widened by 3 cents to 94 cents per share over the past 30 days. Sea Limited reported a loss of 87 cents per share in the year-ago quarter.</p><p>The consensus mark for revenues is currently pegged at $2.97 billion, indicating 47.96% growth from the year-ago quarter’s reported figure.</p><p>The company’s earnings missed the Zacks Consensus Estimate in all of the trailing four quarters, the negative earnings surprise being 56.04%.</p><p>Let’s see how things have shaped up before this announcement.</p><p><b>Factors at Play for Q4 Results</b></p><p>Sea Limited&#39;s digital entertainment (Garena) and e-commerce businesses are expected to continue to capitalize on changing consumer behavior in the fourth quarter.</p><p>Garena is likely to have benefited from the continued popularity of Free Fireamid stiff competition from<b>Tencent</b>TCEHY.</p><p>Per SensorTowerdata, in google play, Free Firewas the second most revenue-generating game worldwide in December 2021, beating Tencent&#39;s PUBG Mobile. Free Fire was also the highest-grossing game in October 2021.</p><p>The company&#39;s e-commerce segment is likely to have gained traction from a strong uptick in Shopee, its online shopping platform. Additionally, SeaMoney&#39;s strengthening integration with Shopee is expected to have aided Sea&#39;s digital financial services business.</p><p>Higher expenses related to the expansion of e-commerce services and continued efforts to integrate the company&#39;s mobile wallet services with the Shopee platform across different markets are expected to have negatively impacted profitability in the to-be-reported quarter.</p><p><b>What Our Model Indicates</b></p><p>Per the Zacks model, the combination of a positive Earnings ESP and a Zacks Rank #1 (Strong Buy), 2 (Buy) or 3 (Hold) increases the odds of an earnings beat. But that&#39;s not the case here.</p><p>Sea Limited has an Earnings ESP of -6.95% and a Zacks Rank #4 (Sell). You can uncover the best stocks to buy or sell before they&#39;re reported with our Earnings ESP Filter.</p></body></html>\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"SE":"Sea Ltd"},"source_url":"","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1132135264","content_text":"Sea Limited shares gained nearly 5% in morning trading.Sea Limited is set to release fourth-quarter 2021 results on Mar 1.The Zacks Consensus Estimate for loss has widened by 3 cents to 94 cents per share over the past 30 days. Sea Limited reported a loss of 87 cents per share in the year-ago quarter.The consensus mark for revenues is currently pegged at $2.97 billion, indicating 47.96% growth from the year-ago quarter’s reported figure.The company’s earnings missed the Zacks Consensus Estimate in all of the trailing four quarters, the negative earnings surprise being 56.04%.Let’s see how things have shaped up before this announcement.Factors at Play for Q4 ResultsSea Limited's digital entertainment (Garena) and e-commerce businesses are expected to continue to capitalize on changing consumer behavior in the fourth quarter.Garena is likely to have benefited from the continued popularity of Free Fireamid stiff competition fromTencentTCEHY.Per SensorTowerdata, in google play, Free Firewas the second most revenue-generating game worldwide in December 2021, beating Tencent's PUBG Mobile. Free Fire was also the highest-grossing game in October 2021.The company's e-commerce segment is likely to have gained traction from a strong uptick in Shopee, its online shopping platform. Additionally, SeaMoney's strengthening integration with Shopee is expected to have aided Sea's digital financial services business.Higher expenses related to the expansion of e-commerce services and continued efforts to integrate the company's mobile wallet services with the Shopee platform across different markets are expected to have negatively impacted profitability in the to-be-reported quarter.What Our Model IndicatesPer the Zacks model, the combination of a positive Earnings ESP and a Zacks Rank #1 (Strong Buy), 2 (Buy) or 3 (Hold) increases the odds of an earnings beat. But that's not the case here.Sea Limited has an Earnings ESP of -6.95% and a Zacks Rank #4 (Sell). You can uncover the best stocks to buy or sell before they're reported with our Earnings ESP Filter.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"SE":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":663,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":836717140,"gmtCreate":1629523596380,"gmtModify":1676530065599,"author":{"id":"3574914526090483","authorId":"3574914526090483","name":"yeelyn18","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ae47c3e96729c68a0234dd22850dfe69","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3574914526090483","idStr":"3574914526090483"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Cool","listText":"Cool","text":"Cool","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":6,"commentSize":2,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/836717140","repostId":"2161745179","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"2161745179","kind":"highlight","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"Dow Jones publishes the world’s most trusted business news and financial information in a variety of media.","home_visible":0,"media_name":"Dow Jones","id":"106","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/150f88aa4d182df19190059f4a365e99"},"pubTimestamp":1629500040,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/2161745179?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2021-08-21 06:54","market":"hk","language":"en","title":"Pfizer, BioNTech stocks rises on report FDA could fully approve COVID-19 vaccine","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2161745179","media":"Dow Jones","summary":"Pfizer Inc. $(PFE)$ and U.S. shares of BioNTech SE (BNTX) rose in the extended session Friday follow","content":"<p>Pfizer Inc. <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/PFE\">$(PFE)$</a> and U.S. shares of <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BNTX\">BioNTech SE</a> (BNTX) rose in the extended session Friday following a report that the drug makers will likely get full Food and Drug Administration approval for their COVID-19 vaccine sometime next week. Pfizer shares rose more than 2% after hours, following a 0.2% decline to close at $48.72, and BioNTech's ADRs rallied more than 5%, following a 5.1% gain to close at $348.68. Late Friday, The New York Times reported targeting the delta variant of the virus.</p>\n<p></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Pfizer, BioNTech stocks rises on report FDA could fully approve COVID-19 vaccine</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nPfizer, BioNTech stocks rises on report FDA could fully approve COVID-19 vaccine\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n<div class=\"head\" \">\n\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/150f88aa4d182df19190059f4a365e99);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">Dow Jones </p>\n<p class=\"h-time\">2021-08-21 06:54</p>\n</div>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>Pfizer Inc. <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/PFE\">$(PFE)$</a> and U.S. shares of <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BNTX\">BioNTech SE</a> (BNTX) rose in the extended session Friday following a report that the drug makers will likely get full Food and Drug Administration approval for their COVID-19 vaccine sometime next week. Pfizer shares rose more than 2% after hours, following a 0.2% decline to close at $48.72, and BioNTech's ADRs rallied more than 5%, following a 5.1% gain to close at $348.68. Late Friday, The New York Times reported targeting the delta variant of the virus.</p>\n<p></p>\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{},"is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2161745179","content_text":"Pfizer Inc. $(PFE)$ and U.S. shares of BioNTech SE (BNTX) rose in the extended session Friday following a report that the drug makers will likely get full Food and Drug Administration approval for their COVID-19 vaccine sometime next week. Pfizer shares rose more than 2% after hours, following a 0.2% decline to close at $48.72, and BioNTech's ADRs rallied more than 5%, following a 5.1% gain to close at $348.68. Late Friday, The New York Times reported targeting the delta variant of the virus.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":706,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9920095202,"gmtCreate":1670388568307,"gmtModify":1676538358584,"author":{"id":"3574914526090483","authorId":"3574914526090483","name":"yeelyn18","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ae47c3e96729c68a0234dd22850dfe69","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3574914526090483","idStr":"3574914526090483"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Ok","listText":"Ok","text":"Ok","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":7,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9920095202","repostId":"1122736605","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1122736605","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1670383031,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1122736605?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2022-12-07 11:17","market":"us","language":"en","title":"NIO And BYD Are Converging","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1122736605","media":"Seeking Alpha","summary":"SummaryNIO Inc. and BYD Company Limited are essentially tales of their own, with one being an EV-pur","content":"<html><head></head><body><h2>Summary</h2><ul><li>NIO Inc. and BYD Company Limited are essentially tales of their own, with one being an EV-pureplay upstart, and the other a legacy ICE-turned-electric automaker with dibs across the auto supply chain.</li><li>Yet, their paths may be converging as China&#39;s EV market opportunities grow.</li><li>The following analysis will provide an overview of how NIO and BYD&#39;s longer-term growth strategies are converging, discuss the risks and opportunities facing each, and gauge their respective valuation implications.</li></ul><p>While <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NIO\">NIO Inc.</a> and BYD Company Limited both started off on a different path when it comes to auto manufacturing, with one being an electric vehicle (“EV”) pureplay start-up and the other being a vertically integrated ICE-turned-electric legacy automaker, they now appear to be converging into each other’s turf as competition ramps up. Not long after NIO announced its intentions to break into the tier 3+ market across China to better serve mass market needs, BYD followed suit with two planned sub-brands to penetrate the premium electric passenger vehicle market.</p><p>Admittedly, BYD’s market share is substantially larger than NIO’s today – both at home and overseas – while also boasting better fundamentals, which would be supportive of its foray in the premium vehicle segment. Yet, NIO’s penetration into mass-market opportunities could also benefit by driving the volume of scale needed to support its breakeven timeline, which consensus projects to occur by or around mid-decade, while management expects to occur as soon as the third quarter of 2023.</p><p>The following analysis will go over both Chinese automakers’ respective market share expansion strategies via their planned sub-brands, and gauge the opportunity that exists for both as well as their implications on both stocks’ prospects.</p><h2><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NIO\">NIO</a></h2><h3>Overview Of Sub-Brand Strategy</h3><p>NIO first announced plans for a mass market sub-brand in August 2021, which aligned with its longer-term strategy of building a greater presence in China’s smaller tier 3+ cities and further expand its share of the country’s fast-expanding EV market.</p><blockquote>As management had discussed during the second quarter, the sub-brand will aim to offer more affordably priced vehicles to drive higher mass-market appeal. The strategic move is expected to help NIO compete for higher market share, especially in the price segment of Tesla’s (TSLA) Model Y/3, while providing “much better service.” <i>Source: “Can NIO Stock Recover in 2022?”</i></blockquote><p>The sub-brand, currently expected to launch in 2024, is also expected to be more competitively priced, with vehicle MSRPs in the range of RMB 200,000 ($30,000) to RMB 300,000 ($44,000), taking on a broader cohort of mass market rivals including BYD. The sub-brand’s launch timeline also coincides with the start of production schedule for NIO’s first in-house 800-V battery packs, which would “enable longer ranges and faster charging” compared to general mass market offerings that are currently fitted with 400-V battery packs. NIO also boasts a competitive digital portfolio today that includes in-vehicle AI “NOMI,” “NAD” ADAS, and battery swapping technology that will likely be leveraged by its sub-brands either as an embedded or add-on feature to bolster profit margins. Paired with NIO’s recently launched NT 2.0 vehicle platform, which boasts higher profit margins than its predecessor, the company’s sub-brand products are likely well-positioned for attractive manufacturing economics, while also posing a technological appeal to the burgeoning EV market in China.</p><p>NIO likely has another sub-brand under the wraps as well that is speculated to involve offerings starting at RMB 100,000 ($15,000). This would put it in direct competition against SAIC-GM-Wuling, the current EV market leader in China that has captured the likes of budget-sensitive consumers in the tier 3+ markets with its “Hongguang Mini” priced at an impressive $5,000, and its newest “Baojun KiWi” priced at $11,000.</p><h3>The Opportunity</h3><p>China currently houses the largest share of the global EV market, accounting for more than half of global EV sales. EV sales in the country has already reached a penetration rate of more than 20% (or more than a quarter counting hybrid plug-ins), with adoption being most prominent in more affluent tier 1 and tier 2 cities like Shanghai and Beijing. The trends have favored NIO in recent years, as its share of premium EV sales across the tier 1 and tier 2 cities like Shanghai have steadily grown – as of last year, the company’s portfolio of electric premium SUVs grabbed a 23% share of the passenger vehicle market priced above RMB 350,000 ($50,000+) in China’s financial hub. With an expectation that consistent growth trends would spill into tier 3 and tier 4 cities over the longer-term, NIO management has made mass market penetration a key initiative in its growth plan, hence the planned sub-brands.</p><p>Thanks to favorable policy support from the central government, as well as improving range and increasing availability of public charging infrastructure across China, EV sales in the country are starting to gain momentum &#34;beyond the biggest cities.” Over the past two years, tier 2 and tier 3 cities saw the fastest growth in EV sales, from about 4.5% penetration in 2020 to more than 25% in the current year. Meanwhile, demand from tier 4+ cities with a population ranging from 500,000 to under 1 million have also started to pick-up, with EV sales penetration expanding from under 3.5% in 2020 to nearly 20% in the current year.</p><p>The remaining growth headroom observed pertaining to EV demand in tier 3+ cities are expected to bode favorably for NIO by the time its sub-brand rolls out in 2024. Between now and then, public charging infrastructure availability is expected to become more prominent in “smaller cities and towns” while “city-level policies that restrict the number of new license plates issues” start to ease in accordance to the nationwide mandate to support EV adoption and decarbonization, which would make strong tailwinds for NIO’s planned mass market offerings.</p><h3>Risks To Consider</h3><p>Yet, the Chinese EV landscape is also becoming increasingly competitive. And NIO is not the only EV pureplay looking to better capture global market share by expanding into mass market offerings. In addition to BYD and SAIC-GM-Wuling as mentioned in the earlier section, EV pureplay rivals like XPeng (XPEV) have also introduced models in the sub-$30,000 price range, while Tesla’s Model 3 remains a favorite with increasingly attractive pricing.</p><p>As discussed in a previous coverage on NIO, the company risks facing a pricing war in the near-term as competition ramps up, especially as consumer sentiment in the country wanes ahead of mounting macroeconomic uncertainties:</p><blockquote>Despite NIO’s in line 3Q22 sales, the drumbeat is growing louder on concerns over consumer weakness heading into the fourth quarter. COVID-induced mobility restrictions and production disruptions are hampering both supply and demand functions of the company’s profit and growth prospects, souring investors’ confidence in the stock. EV industry leader Tesla’s recent decision to pull the “pricing lever” in the region is also dialing up risks of a pricing war in China’s increasingly competitive EV market. <i>Source: “Is NIO Stock A Buy After Q3’22 Earnings? Keep Your Eyes On COVID Zero.”</i></blockquote><p>But the delayed roll-out of NIO’s mass market offering until 2024 could offer a time cushion for the company to better weather through the near-term industry-specific and macroeconomic headwinds. For one, supply chain constraints stemming from the pandemic and the Russia-Ukraine war – particularly on auto semiconductors – are already showing structural signs of easing. Meanwhile, China’s record-setting household savings of $1.8 trillion YTD, or household savings rate of 30%, accumulated as a pre-emptive measure against looming macroeconomic uncertainties today could also imply a better demand environment in 2024 when cyclical challenges ease. As such, the launch of NIO’s sub-brands scheduled for 2024 could come at an opportune time when the global macroeconomic outlook is expected to improve while the transition to electric continues to gain momentum, offsetting some of the demand risks stemming from increasing competition.</p><h2>Fundamental And Valuation Implications</h2><p>The anticipated growth prospects stemming from NIO’s penetration in mass market opportunities with its planned sub-brands are not going to come at a cheap price. Auto manufacturing is one of the most capital-intensive endeavors out there – especially for those that are vertically integrated.</p><p>Yet, NIO’s “semi-vertically integrated” manufacturing strategy, which involves in-house designed platforms (and ultimately, battery packs) and internal productions at its joint venture facility with Jianghuai Automobile Group (“JAC”) and partly municipal-owned facility at NeoPark, is expected to absorb some of the high ramp-up costs. The anticipated increase in demand for its mass market products is also expected to drive improved volumes to enable better economies of scale, especially if the company adopts a cross-brand platform-sharing strategy, which will likely fast-track its margin expansion trajectory towards and beyond breakeven by mid-decade.</p><p>However, given materialization of said anticipated profits bolstered by NIO’s mass market penetration strategy is still further out into the future, related upside potential may take more time to come into fruition, which inadvertently, means a higher investment risk. This is a particularly critical consideration in today’s market climate for Chinese equities, especially those that are not yet profitable like NIO, given uncertainties spanning regulatory, macroeconomic, and geopolitical challenges.</p><h2><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BYDDY\">BYD</a></h2><h3>Overview Of Sub-Brand Strategy</h3><p>Differing from NIO, BYD is already an established automaker with a sprawling presence across China’s passenger vehicle market (and to a smaller extent, the global commercial vehicle market). Having just transitioned completely from the sale of ICE models to only new energy vehicles including hybrid plug-ins earlier this year, BYD has already taken China’s EV market by storm, with monthly sales by unit consistently exceeding six figures and setting new records. It is also one of the few legacy automakers that have managed to penetrate the burgeoning EV market at a profitable rate within a short period.</p><p>Known for its prowess in the mass market vehicle segment, the legacy Chinese automaker is now planning its debut in the premium EV segment in early 2023 via its first sub-brand, “Yangwang” – a contrast to NIO’s longer-term growth strategy. The automaker is slated to debut a premium off-road electric SUV, dubbed the “R1,” as its first product under the Yangwang sub-brand, which will be priced in the RMB 800,000 to RMB 1.5 million range ($110,300 to $200,000+). Similar to BYD’s current new energy offerings, the Yangwang R1 will be offered in a battery-electric (“BEV”) powertrain and plug-in hybrid (“PHEV”) power-train capable of up to 650 hp, with a five- and seven-seater option, and be the “most expensive BYD ever.”</p><p>The company has also recently announced intentions of another new brand that “specializes in professional and personalized identifies” as it looks to “build up its brand matrix” and better penetrate overseas opportunities across Asia, Europe, Latin America and other markets. Although details on the second sub-brand remain limited, it will likely complement Yangwang and help usher BYD into China’s “luxury SUV and sports car markets…[which] are the two most profitable vehicle segments [that it] does not have exposure to” yet. Given BYD is already profitable, the higher-priced premium offerings will likely further reinforce its margin expansion trajectory into the longer-term, and bolster its competitive advantage against premium rivals in the market.</p><h3>The Opportunity</h3><p>While EV penetration in the more affluent tier 1 and tier 2 cities across China is substantially higher than in smaller cities where lower-priced mass market offerings take a precedent appeal, there is still significant growth headroom remaining in the premium EV segment for BYD. As mentioned in the earlier section, EV penetration in Shanghai already exceeds 50%, while in the broader tier 1 and tier 2 cities it averages more than 36%. Plug-in hybrid SUVs are also of greater appeal, accounting for close to a quarter of China’s new passenger vehicle sales today, while remaining the fastest-growing EV segment, which makes strong tailwinds for BYD’s upcoming Yangwang R1 debut (recall that the R1 comes in both the BEV and PHEV powertrain).</p><p>Market participants also anticipate BYD’s upcoming sub-brands to produce “the kind of EVs fit for the U.S., a market BYD has yet to enter.” This fits with BYD’s overseas aspirations for its passenger EV business over the longer-term, and would be a favorable complement to its existing presence in North America via its commercial EV sales. The U.S. EV market is expected to see a meaningful increase in adoption rates over coming years, thanks to favorable policy support like the latest “Inflation Reduction Act” (“IRA”), as well as broader improvements to EV battery technologies and range capabilities. Specifically, U.S. EV demand is expected to expand at a five-year CAGR of 28% through 2026, with further acceleration into the second half of the decade. Paired with a similar growth outlook in Canada (though at a comparatively nominal volume on a unit basis), Yangwang and other sub-brand offerings could potentially become an overseas share gainer for BYD.</p><h3>Risks To Consider</h3><p>While competition comes to mind as a top risk for automakers, BYD’s reputation as a quality mass market vehicle manufacturer could alleviate some of the said challenges. This is further corroborated by BYD’s pricing power with continued market share gains despite a recent decision to increase its vehicle MSRPs, as opposed to price cuts implemented by Tesla in an attempt to shore up demand.</p><p>Instead, a key concern is BYD’s lack of presence in cutting-edge technological competencies, which premium EVs offered by NIO and Tesla tend to use as key selling points:</p><blockquote>What BYD lacks that others have is more of a digital DNA…BYD is still a hardware company. As good as it is assembling an EV profitably at scale, it hasn’t proven itself to be a tech-driven software-defined technology company. Source: Bloomberg</blockquote><p>While BYD intends for Yangwang to “build a high-end brand with disruptive technologies and products,” there has yet to be any details pertaining to the R1 that would differentiate the premium electric SUV from a digital aspect. Aside from potential ADAS features (which are pretty much standard across premium offerings at this point) speculated from BYD-released images that show the vehicle’s integration of LiDAR sensors, the company has yet to release much information about the vehicle’s performance, range capability, nor technological features. While BYD’s robust balance sheet could fund the development of software capabilities required for differentiation against competing premium offerings, relate innovations would take time to materialize, risking a costly catch-up game in the concentrated premium EV market.</p><h2>Fundamental And Valuation Implications</h2><p>In contrast to NIO, BYD is already a profitable company, with margins set for continued expansion as production ramps up on both its existing and upcoming vehicle models. And as mentioned in the earlier section, BYD’s upcoming foray in China’s premium electric SUV market would be beneficial to its bottom-line given said products would be priced higher to offset near-term ramp-up costs, with greater demand in the lucrative vehicle segment expected to support longer-term margin expansion through scale. With related operating cash flow generation realizable in the immediate term, BYD is also less vulnerable to the investment risks facing NIO as discussed in the earlier section.</p><p>The stock is currently trading at a significant discount of 1.4x forward EV/sales compared to an average of about 4.1x among U.S. counterparts and 1.7x among Chinese EV start-ups. Given its profitable growth prospects both within the immediate- and over the longer-term, BYD makes a reasonable investment at current levels. But like all Chinese equities, BYD faces a slew of risks specific to the cohort, including China’s macroeconomic uncertainties (e.g., property slump, COVID Zero impacts, etc.) and regulatory challenges. Although BYD’s robust balance sheet has made its valuation relatively less vulnerable to the years-long selloff in Chinese equities, existing and potential investors in the stock should remain aware and not overlook said risks.</p><h2>Final Thoughts</h2><p>Based on the foregoing analysis on NIO and BYD’s longer-term market share expansion strategies, both legacy and start-up Chinese EV makers alike show favorable growth prospects as the global transition to electric continues. While converging strategies will likely introduce further competition within the already highly concentrated EV landscape in China, significant opportunities remain across all vehicle and pricing segments, underscoring the still-nascent nature of the EV industry.</p><p>With NIO being an EV upstart that has already established a reputation for making quality and innovative EVs, and BYD being a legacy automaker that has proven a profitable transition to electric is possible, both companies are well-positioned for further market share gains within and beyond the Chinese EV market. This would accordingly support favorable long-term upside potential for both stocks from current levels, especially BYD which boasts better immediate and future fundamental prospects, though macroeconomic, geopolitical, and regulatory risks will remain an overhang on their performance.</p></body></html>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>NIO And BYD Are Converging</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nNIO And BYD Are Converging\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2022-12-07 11:17 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://seekingalpha.com/article/4562669-nio-and-byd-are-converging><strong>Seeking Alpha</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>SummaryNIO Inc. and BYD Company Limited are essentially tales of their own, with one being an EV-pureplay upstart, and the other a legacy ICE-turned-electric automaker with dibs across the auto supply...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4562669-nio-and-byd-are-converging\">Source Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"002594":"比亚迪","BYDDY":"比亚迪ADR","NIO":"蔚来"},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4562669-nio-and-byd-are-converging","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1122736605","content_text":"SummaryNIO Inc. and BYD Company Limited are essentially tales of their own, with one being an EV-pureplay upstart, and the other a legacy ICE-turned-electric automaker with dibs across the auto supply chain.Yet, their paths may be converging as China's EV market opportunities grow.The following analysis will provide an overview of how NIO and BYD's longer-term growth strategies are converging, discuss the risks and opportunities facing each, and gauge their respective valuation implications.While NIO Inc. and BYD Company Limited both started off on a different path when it comes to auto manufacturing, with one being an electric vehicle (“EV”) pureplay start-up and the other being a vertically integrated ICE-turned-electric legacy automaker, they now appear to be converging into each other’s turf as competition ramps up. Not long after NIO announced its intentions to break into the tier 3+ market across China to better serve mass market needs, BYD followed suit with two planned sub-brands to penetrate the premium electric passenger vehicle market.Admittedly, BYD’s market share is substantially larger than NIO’s today – both at home and overseas – while also boasting better fundamentals, which would be supportive of its foray in the premium vehicle segment. Yet, NIO’s penetration into mass-market opportunities could also benefit by driving the volume of scale needed to support its breakeven timeline, which consensus projects to occur by or around mid-decade, while management expects to occur as soon as the third quarter of 2023.The following analysis will go over both Chinese automakers’ respective market share expansion strategies via their planned sub-brands, and gauge the opportunity that exists for both as well as their implications on both stocks’ prospects.NIOOverview Of Sub-Brand StrategyNIO first announced plans for a mass market sub-brand in August 2021, which aligned with its longer-term strategy of building a greater presence in China’s smaller tier 3+ cities and further expand its share of the country’s fast-expanding EV market.As management had discussed during the second quarter, the sub-brand will aim to offer more affordably priced vehicles to drive higher mass-market appeal. The strategic move is expected to help NIO compete for higher market share, especially in the price segment of Tesla’s (TSLA) Model Y/3, while providing “much better service.” Source: “Can NIO Stock Recover in 2022?”The sub-brand, currently expected to launch in 2024, is also expected to be more competitively priced, with vehicle MSRPs in the range of RMB 200,000 ($30,000) to RMB 300,000 ($44,000), taking on a broader cohort of mass market rivals including BYD. The sub-brand’s launch timeline also coincides with the start of production schedule for NIO’s first in-house 800-V battery packs, which would “enable longer ranges and faster charging” compared to general mass market offerings that are currently fitted with 400-V battery packs. NIO also boasts a competitive digital portfolio today that includes in-vehicle AI “NOMI,” “NAD” ADAS, and battery swapping technology that will likely be leveraged by its sub-brands either as an embedded or add-on feature to bolster profit margins. Paired with NIO’s recently launched NT 2.0 vehicle platform, which boasts higher profit margins than its predecessor, the company’s sub-brand products are likely well-positioned for attractive manufacturing economics, while also posing a technological appeal to the burgeoning EV market in China.NIO likely has another sub-brand under the wraps as well that is speculated to involve offerings starting at RMB 100,000 ($15,000). This would put it in direct competition against SAIC-GM-Wuling, the current EV market leader in China that has captured the likes of budget-sensitive consumers in the tier 3+ markets with its “Hongguang Mini” priced at an impressive $5,000, and its newest “Baojun KiWi” priced at $11,000.The OpportunityChina currently houses the largest share of the global EV market, accounting for more than half of global EV sales. EV sales in the country has already reached a penetration rate of more than 20% (or more than a quarter counting hybrid plug-ins), with adoption being most prominent in more affluent tier 1 and tier 2 cities like Shanghai and Beijing. The trends have favored NIO in recent years, as its share of premium EV sales across the tier 1 and tier 2 cities like Shanghai have steadily grown – as of last year, the company’s portfolio of electric premium SUVs grabbed a 23% share of the passenger vehicle market priced above RMB 350,000 ($50,000+) in China’s financial hub. With an expectation that consistent growth trends would spill into tier 3 and tier 4 cities over the longer-term, NIO management has made mass market penetration a key initiative in its growth plan, hence the planned sub-brands.Thanks to favorable policy support from the central government, as well as improving range and increasing availability of public charging infrastructure across China, EV sales in the country are starting to gain momentum \"beyond the biggest cities.” Over the past two years, tier 2 and tier 3 cities saw the fastest growth in EV sales, from about 4.5% penetration in 2020 to more than 25% in the current year. Meanwhile, demand from tier 4+ cities with a population ranging from 500,000 to under 1 million have also started to pick-up, with EV sales penetration expanding from under 3.5% in 2020 to nearly 20% in the current year.The remaining growth headroom observed pertaining to EV demand in tier 3+ cities are expected to bode favorably for NIO by the time its sub-brand rolls out in 2024. Between now and then, public charging infrastructure availability is expected to become more prominent in “smaller cities and towns” while “city-level policies that restrict the number of new license plates issues” start to ease in accordance to the nationwide mandate to support EV adoption and decarbonization, which would make strong tailwinds for NIO’s planned mass market offerings.Risks To ConsiderYet, the Chinese EV landscape is also becoming increasingly competitive. And NIO is not the only EV pureplay looking to better capture global market share by expanding into mass market offerings. In addition to BYD and SAIC-GM-Wuling as mentioned in the earlier section, EV pureplay rivals like XPeng (XPEV) have also introduced models in the sub-$30,000 price range, while Tesla’s Model 3 remains a favorite with increasingly attractive pricing.As discussed in a previous coverage on NIO, the company risks facing a pricing war in the near-term as competition ramps up, especially as consumer sentiment in the country wanes ahead of mounting macroeconomic uncertainties:Despite NIO’s in line 3Q22 sales, the drumbeat is growing louder on concerns over consumer weakness heading into the fourth quarter. COVID-induced mobility restrictions and production disruptions are hampering both supply and demand functions of the company’s profit and growth prospects, souring investors’ confidence in the stock. EV industry leader Tesla’s recent decision to pull the “pricing lever” in the region is also dialing up risks of a pricing war in China’s increasingly competitive EV market. Source: “Is NIO Stock A Buy After Q3’22 Earnings? Keep Your Eyes On COVID Zero.”But the delayed roll-out of NIO’s mass market offering until 2024 could offer a time cushion for the company to better weather through the near-term industry-specific and macroeconomic headwinds. For one, supply chain constraints stemming from the pandemic and the Russia-Ukraine war – particularly on auto semiconductors – are already showing structural signs of easing. Meanwhile, China’s record-setting household savings of $1.8 trillion YTD, or household savings rate of 30%, accumulated as a pre-emptive measure against looming macroeconomic uncertainties today could also imply a better demand environment in 2024 when cyclical challenges ease. As such, the launch of NIO’s sub-brands scheduled for 2024 could come at an opportune time when the global macroeconomic outlook is expected to improve while the transition to electric continues to gain momentum, offsetting some of the demand risks stemming from increasing competition.Fundamental And Valuation ImplicationsThe anticipated growth prospects stemming from NIO’s penetration in mass market opportunities with its planned sub-brands are not going to come at a cheap price. Auto manufacturing is one of the most capital-intensive endeavors out there – especially for those that are vertically integrated.Yet, NIO’s “semi-vertically integrated” manufacturing strategy, which involves in-house designed platforms (and ultimately, battery packs) and internal productions at its joint venture facility with Jianghuai Automobile Group (“JAC”) and partly municipal-owned facility at NeoPark, is expected to absorb some of the high ramp-up costs. The anticipated increase in demand for its mass market products is also expected to drive improved volumes to enable better economies of scale, especially if the company adopts a cross-brand platform-sharing strategy, which will likely fast-track its margin expansion trajectory towards and beyond breakeven by mid-decade.However, given materialization of said anticipated profits bolstered by NIO’s mass market penetration strategy is still further out into the future, related upside potential may take more time to come into fruition, which inadvertently, means a higher investment risk. This is a particularly critical consideration in today’s market climate for Chinese equities, especially those that are not yet profitable like NIO, given uncertainties spanning regulatory, macroeconomic, and geopolitical challenges.BYDOverview Of Sub-Brand StrategyDiffering from NIO, BYD is already an established automaker with a sprawling presence across China’s passenger vehicle market (and to a smaller extent, the global commercial vehicle market). Having just transitioned completely from the sale of ICE models to only new energy vehicles including hybrid plug-ins earlier this year, BYD has already taken China’s EV market by storm, with monthly sales by unit consistently exceeding six figures and setting new records. It is also one of the few legacy automakers that have managed to penetrate the burgeoning EV market at a profitable rate within a short period.Known for its prowess in the mass market vehicle segment, the legacy Chinese automaker is now planning its debut in the premium EV segment in early 2023 via its first sub-brand, “Yangwang” – a contrast to NIO’s longer-term growth strategy. The automaker is slated to debut a premium off-road electric SUV, dubbed the “R1,” as its first product under the Yangwang sub-brand, which will be priced in the RMB 800,000 to RMB 1.5 million range ($110,300 to $200,000+). Similar to BYD’s current new energy offerings, the Yangwang R1 will be offered in a battery-electric (“BEV”) powertrain and plug-in hybrid (“PHEV”) power-train capable of up to 650 hp, with a five- and seven-seater option, and be the “most expensive BYD ever.”The company has also recently announced intentions of another new brand that “specializes in professional and personalized identifies” as it looks to “build up its brand matrix” and better penetrate overseas opportunities across Asia, Europe, Latin America and other markets. Although details on the second sub-brand remain limited, it will likely complement Yangwang and help usher BYD into China’s “luxury SUV and sports car markets…[which] are the two most profitable vehicle segments [that it] does not have exposure to” yet. Given BYD is already profitable, the higher-priced premium offerings will likely further reinforce its margin expansion trajectory into the longer-term, and bolster its competitive advantage against premium rivals in the market.The OpportunityWhile EV penetration in the more affluent tier 1 and tier 2 cities across China is substantially higher than in smaller cities where lower-priced mass market offerings take a precedent appeal, there is still significant growth headroom remaining in the premium EV segment for BYD. As mentioned in the earlier section, EV penetration in Shanghai already exceeds 50%, while in the broader tier 1 and tier 2 cities it averages more than 36%. Plug-in hybrid SUVs are also of greater appeal, accounting for close to a quarter of China’s new passenger vehicle sales today, while remaining the fastest-growing EV segment, which makes strong tailwinds for BYD’s upcoming Yangwang R1 debut (recall that the R1 comes in both the BEV and PHEV powertrain).Market participants also anticipate BYD’s upcoming sub-brands to produce “the kind of EVs fit for the U.S., a market BYD has yet to enter.” This fits with BYD’s overseas aspirations for its passenger EV business over the longer-term, and would be a favorable complement to its existing presence in North America via its commercial EV sales. The U.S. EV market is expected to see a meaningful increase in adoption rates over coming years, thanks to favorable policy support like the latest “Inflation Reduction Act” (“IRA”), as well as broader improvements to EV battery technologies and range capabilities. Specifically, U.S. EV demand is expected to expand at a five-year CAGR of 28% through 2026, with further acceleration into the second half of the decade. Paired with a similar growth outlook in Canada (though at a comparatively nominal volume on a unit basis), Yangwang and other sub-brand offerings could potentially become an overseas share gainer for BYD.Risks To ConsiderWhile competition comes to mind as a top risk for automakers, BYD’s reputation as a quality mass market vehicle manufacturer could alleviate some of the said challenges. This is further corroborated by BYD’s pricing power with continued market share gains despite a recent decision to increase its vehicle MSRPs, as opposed to price cuts implemented by Tesla in an attempt to shore up demand.Instead, a key concern is BYD’s lack of presence in cutting-edge technological competencies, which premium EVs offered by NIO and Tesla tend to use as key selling points:What BYD lacks that others have is more of a digital DNA…BYD is still a hardware company. As good as it is assembling an EV profitably at scale, it hasn’t proven itself to be a tech-driven software-defined technology company. Source: BloombergWhile BYD intends for Yangwang to “build a high-end brand with disruptive technologies and products,” there has yet to be any details pertaining to the R1 that would differentiate the premium electric SUV from a digital aspect. Aside from potential ADAS features (which are pretty much standard across premium offerings at this point) speculated from BYD-released images that show the vehicle’s integration of LiDAR sensors, the company has yet to release much information about the vehicle’s performance, range capability, nor technological features. While BYD’s robust balance sheet could fund the development of software capabilities required for differentiation against competing premium offerings, relate innovations would take time to materialize, risking a costly catch-up game in the concentrated premium EV market.Fundamental And Valuation ImplicationsIn contrast to NIO, BYD is already a profitable company, with margins set for continued expansion as production ramps up on both its existing and upcoming vehicle models. And as mentioned in the earlier section, BYD’s upcoming foray in China’s premium electric SUV market would be beneficial to its bottom-line given said products would be priced higher to offset near-term ramp-up costs, with greater demand in the lucrative vehicle segment expected to support longer-term margin expansion through scale. With related operating cash flow generation realizable in the immediate term, BYD is also less vulnerable to the investment risks facing NIO as discussed in the earlier section.The stock is currently trading at a significant discount of 1.4x forward EV/sales compared to an average of about 4.1x among U.S. counterparts and 1.7x among Chinese EV start-ups. Given its profitable growth prospects both within the immediate- and over the longer-term, BYD makes a reasonable investment at current levels. But like all Chinese equities, BYD faces a slew of risks specific to the cohort, including China’s macroeconomic uncertainties (e.g., property slump, COVID Zero impacts, etc.) and regulatory challenges. Although BYD’s robust balance sheet has made its valuation relatively less vulnerable to the years-long selloff in Chinese equities, existing and potential investors in the stock should remain aware and not overlook said risks.Final ThoughtsBased on the foregoing analysis on NIO and BYD’s longer-term market share expansion strategies, both legacy and start-up Chinese EV makers alike show favorable growth prospects as the global transition to electric continues. While converging strategies will likely introduce further competition within the already highly concentrated EV landscape in China, significant opportunities remain across all vehicle and pricing segments, underscoring the still-nascent nature of the EV industry.With NIO being an EV upstart that has already established a reputation for making quality and innovative EVs, and BYD being a legacy automaker that has proven a profitable transition to electric is possible, both companies are well-positioned for further market share gains within and beyond the Chinese EV market. This would accordingly support favorable long-term upside potential for both stocks from current levels, especially BYD which boasts better immediate and future fundamental prospects, though macroeconomic, geopolitical, and regulatory risks will remain an overhang on their performance.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"BYDDY":0.9,"NIO":0.9,"002594":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":3618,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9961556899,"gmtCreate":1669000364112,"gmtModify":1676538137412,"author":{"id":"3574914526090483","authorId":"3574914526090483","name":"yeelyn18","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ae47c3e96729c68a0234dd22850dfe69","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3574914526090483","idStr":"3574914526090483"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"K","listText":"K","text":"K","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":5,"commentSize":2,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9961556899","repostId":"1102151273","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1102151273","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1668992478,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1102151273?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2022-11-21 09:01","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Alibaba Q3: Munger Remains Unfazed, Plus 3 Things Not To Overlook","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1102151273","media":"Seeking Alpha","summary":"SummaryAlibaba just reported its Q3 (fiscal year Q2) earnings. The results were solid despite challe","content":"<html><head></head><body><p><b>Summary</b></p><ul><li>Alibaba just reported its Q3 (fiscal year Q2) earnings. The results were solid despite challenges in the past quarter and triggered sharp price rallies.</li><li>In the meantime, the Daily Journal Corp.’s recent 13F shows that its Alibaba position remains unchanged in the past quarter.</li><li>This article focuses on the implications of 3 things from its Q3 earnings report: profitability, capital allocation, and valuation.</li><li>And I can see why Munger remains unfazed.</li></ul><p><b>Q3 recap and investment thesis</b></p><p>Alibaba (NYSE: BABA) just released its Q3 2022earnings report(“ER”). Note that its fiscal quarter is shifted from the calendar quarter (so it is its FY Q2). And in the remainder of this article, I will refer to the calendar quarter consistently. By this time, many of the aspects of its Q3 ER have been detailed by other SA authors already. As a result, I will only provide a brief recap of its Q3 results. Then I will quickly zoom in on three things that are less discussed so far in other SA articles.</p><p>Overall, I view the results as solid, especially considering the challenging operating environments in the past quarter. Its Non-GAAP EPS (referred to on a per ADS basis hereafter) dialed in at $1.82, exceeding consensus estimates by $0.17. Topline came in at $29.12B, representing a +3.0% YoY growth but missing consensus estimates slightly by $490M (about 1.6% on a relative basis). Notably, its cloud segment grew 4% YOY and now represents 10% of the total revenue.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/08d0114344dd757db5d5d21a884dd2b6\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"289\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p>Source: BABA Q3 ER</p><p>The remainder of this article will concentrate on 3 things from its Q3 ER that are less discussed in other articles. Firstly, I will examine its profitability as measured by ROCE (return on capital employed). You will see that its profitability indeed has suffered strong headwinds due to ongoing macro challenges, but still remains at a highly competitive level even when benchmarked against the FAAMG group. Secondly, I will examine its capital allocation. And the picture is similar here. Admittedly, it simply does not enjoy the flexibility it used to even compared to the beginning of the year. But overall, it is still in a strong financial position and can sustainably fund its various growth initiatives. And finally, the valuation is too compressed to ignore in my view.</p><p>Before we dive in, note that the Daily Journal Corp. recently also disclosed its 13F filing. And as shown in the chart below, Alibaba remains as the 3rdlargest position, representing 14.6% of its equity portfolio. And I can see why Munger remains unfazed after we examine the financials more closely next.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/677845cdad0cdf5462cfd630779c29cf\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"368\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p>Source: Dataroma.com</p><p><b>Profitability remains competitive</b></p><p>As detailed in my blog article, for a long-term business owner, return on capital employed (“ROCE”) is the most important metric in my mind. And BABA’s ROCE is shown below. The chart plots its ROCE dating back to 2014 and specifically highlights the changes in its ROCE in 2022 (the last two data points on this chart). As you can see, its profitability indeed has suffered strong headwinds due to ongoing macro challenges. To wit, even as recent as Q1 2022, its ROCE hovered around 97% based on quarterly TTM financials. But due to the various headwinds (both macroeconomic and regulatory as to be elaborated later), its ROCE has contracted substantially to the current level of 62.4% based on the Q3 TTM financials.</p><p>However, BABA’s current ROCE still remains at a highly competitive level even when benchmarked against the FAAMG group as you can see from the second following chart below. As a matter of fact, its current ROCE is only behind Apple (AAPL) in this group.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6edb9f34d10e490e6795015d49dda18e\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"258\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p>Source: author and Seeking Alpha.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d3d4cd52c813e053fa637f73ee468287\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"297\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p>Source: author and Seeking Alpha.</p><p><b>Capital allocation flexibility remains strong too</b></p><p>BABA has always been in a strong financial position. Its financial position may be a bit weaker than it used to be due to its commitment to the common prosperity funds, high tax rates, and regulatory changes. To wit, BABA made a pledge of about $15.5B to the Chinese common prosperity fund in the next five years (so about $3.1B per year). At the same time, its TTM operating cash was more than $30.5B as of Q1 2022. And its operating cash flow has decreased to about $20.1B as of TTM Q3, a decrease of more than $10B.</p><p>However, under the overall scheme of things, it is still in a quite strong position. It is effectively debt-free (total interest expenses are only about $500M), it does not pay a dividend, and its maintenance CAPEX is really low (total depreciation is only about 10% of its operating income). And it carries a sizeable net cash position (about $10.1 per share) as shown in the table below, by far the highest level relative to a few other stocks (I will explain why I picked this set of stocks next).</p><p>And this is a good point to move onto its valuation, particularly the impact of the net cash position on its valuation.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c851f218d7749d4f4d8d17853526a8b5\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"210\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p>Source: author and Seeking Alpha data.</p><p><b>Valuation is even cheaper when adjusted for ROCE</b></p><p>The chart above shows that BABA’s PE is about 11.4x at its current price. Also as aforementioned, there is about $10.0 of cash behind each BABA share, translating into ~11.8% of the current share price. The cash position is actually higher than in Q1 (about $9.3 per share at that time). And adjusted for the cash position, its current PE is only about 10.1x, actually lower than the 11.7x multiple in Q1 despite the decrease in earnings.</p><p>Readers familiar with our approach know that valuation shouldn&#39;t be looked at in isolation. It should be always interpreted together with the quality of the business. And that is what the next chart intends to do. These seemingly random stocks picked for this chart represent some of the largest Berkshire (BRK.A) (BRK.B) holdings, and hence, the green dotted line is what I call a Buffett value line. As detailed in my earlier article:</p><blockquote><i>The Buffett’s value line is a line linking A) the origin (a business that has 0 ROCE should worth O PE), and B) Buffett’s largest holding AAPL (which happens to have the highest ROCE among this group of stocks).</i></blockquote><p>Since you always have the choice to buy AAPL, it makes little sense to buy stocks above this line (except for the need for diversification). As seen, BABA now lies below this line (right next to AbbVie (ABBV), another stock we also hold) by a good margin, suggesting a valuation that is more compressed when adjusted for ROCE than on the surface.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f7b16375acb6efb2b50a0b5d855eabcf\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"397\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p>Source: author and Seeking Alpha data.</p><p><b>Risks and final thoughts</b></p><p>BABA faces many risks. Potential investors should be cautious of the extreme uncertainties here. As detailed by many SA authors (ourselves included), some risks could lead to 100% loss (such as VIE) or large losses (such as delisting). Here, I will limit my discussions to the risks that are more relevant to business fundamentals and operations. I am cautiously optimistic about the company’s business operation outlook in the next 1 or 2 years. The impact of the COVID-19 restrictions in China remains the largest risk in my view. With China’s Zero COVID policy still in place, customer growth in its China Commerce division (TaoBao and Tmall, to name a few) faces an uncertain recovery path. And so do the overall economic conditions in the country.</p><p>To conclude, this article focused on 3 things in BABA’s Q3 ER that are less discussed by other SA authors so far. Its profitability, as measured by ROCE, indeed has suffered strong headwinds, shrinking from ~100% in Q1 to the current 62%. But a ROCE of around 62% is still highly competitive even compared to the FAAMG stocks. Such a robust ROCE, when combined with its capital allocation flexibility, offers healthy growth prospects. For example, its International Commerce Retail segment, including Lazada and AliExpress, offers plenty of upsides. And finally, the valuation, especially when adjusted for its ROCE and sizable cash position, is simply too compressed to make sense the way I see it.</p></body></html>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Alibaba Q3: Munger Remains Unfazed, Plus 3 Things Not To Overlook</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nAlibaba Q3: Munger Remains Unfazed, Plus 3 Things Not To Overlook\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2022-11-21 09:01 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://seekingalpha.com/article/4559273-alibaba-stock-q3-earnings-munger-remains-unfazed><strong>Seeking Alpha</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>SummaryAlibaba just reported its Q3 (fiscal year Q2) earnings. The results were solid despite challenges in the past quarter and triggered sharp price rallies.In the meantime, the Daily Journal Corp.’...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4559273-alibaba-stock-q3-earnings-munger-remains-unfazed\">Source Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"09988":"阿里巴巴-W","BABA":"阿里巴巴"},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4559273-alibaba-stock-q3-earnings-munger-remains-unfazed","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1102151273","content_text":"SummaryAlibaba just reported its Q3 (fiscal year Q2) earnings. The results were solid despite challenges in the past quarter and triggered sharp price rallies.In the meantime, the Daily Journal Corp.’s recent 13F shows that its Alibaba position remains unchanged in the past quarter.This article focuses on the implications of 3 things from its Q3 earnings report: profitability, capital allocation, and valuation.And I can see why Munger remains unfazed.Q3 recap and investment thesisAlibaba (NYSE: BABA) just released its Q3 2022earnings report(“ER”). Note that its fiscal quarter is shifted from the calendar quarter (so it is its FY Q2). And in the remainder of this article, I will refer to the calendar quarter consistently. By this time, many of the aspects of its Q3 ER have been detailed by other SA authors already. As a result, I will only provide a brief recap of its Q3 results. Then I will quickly zoom in on three things that are less discussed so far in other SA articles.Overall, I view the results as solid, especially considering the challenging operating environments in the past quarter. Its Non-GAAP EPS (referred to on a per ADS basis hereafter) dialed in at $1.82, exceeding consensus estimates by $0.17. Topline came in at $29.12B, representing a +3.0% YoY growth but missing consensus estimates slightly by $490M (about 1.6% on a relative basis). Notably, its cloud segment grew 4% YOY and now represents 10% of the total revenue.Source: BABA Q3 ERThe remainder of this article will concentrate on 3 things from its Q3 ER that are less discussed in other articles. Firstly, I will examine its profitability as measured by ROCE (return on capital employed). You will see that its profitability indeed has suffered strong headwinds due to ongoing macro challenges, but still remains at a highly competitive level even when benchmarked against the FAAMG group. Secondly, I will examine its capital allocation. And the picture is similar here. Admittedly, it simply does not enjoy the flexibility it used to even compared to the beginning of the year. But overall, it is still in a strong financial position and can sustainably fund its various growth initiatives. And finally, the valuation is too compressed to ignore in my view.Before we dive in, note that the Daily Journal Corp. recently also disclosed its 13F filing. And as shown in the chart below, Alibaba remains as the 3rdlargest position, representing 14.6% of its equity portfolio. And I can see why Munger remains unfazed after we examine the financials more closely next.Source: Dataroma.comProfitability remains competitiveAs detailed in my blog article, for a long-term business owner, return on capital employed (“ROCE”) is the most important metric in my mind. And BABA’s ROCE is shown below. The chart plots its ROCE dating back to 2014 and specifically highlights the changes in its ROCE in 2022 (the last two data points on this chart). As you can see, its profitability indeed has suffered strong headwinds due to ongoing macro challenges. To wit, even as recent as Q1 2022, its ROCE hovered around 97% based on quarterly TTM financials. But due to the various headwinds (both macroeconomic and regulatory as to be elaborated later), its ROCE has contracted substantially to the current level of 62.4% based on the Q3 TTM financials.However, BABA’s current ROCE still remains at a highly competitive level even when benchmarked against the FAAMG group as you can see from the second following chart below. As a matter of fact, its current ROCE is only behind Apple (AAPL) in this group.Source: author and Seeking Alpha.Source: author and Seeking Alpha.Capital allocation flexibility remains strong tooBABA has always been in a strong financial position. Its financial position may be a bit weaker than it used to be due to its commitment to the common prosperity funds, high tax rates, and regulatory changes. To wit, BABA made a pledge of about $15.5B to the Chinese common prosperity fund in the next five years (so about $3.1B per year). At the same time, its TTM operating cash was more than $30.5B as of Q1 2022. And its operating cash flow has decreased to about $20.1B as of TTM Q3, a decrease of more than $10B.However, under the overall scheme of things, it is still in a quite strong position. It is effectively debt-free (total interest expenses are only about $500M), it does not pay a dividend, and its maintenance CAPEX is really low (total depreciation is only about 10% of its operating income). And it carries a sizeable net cash position (about $10.1 per share) as shown in the table below, by far the highest level relative to a few other stocks (I will explain why I picked this set of stocks next).And this is a good point to move onto its valuation, particularly the impact of the net cash position on its valuation.Source: author and Seeking Alpha data.Valuation is even cheaper when adjusted for ROCEThe chart above shows that BABA’s PE is about 11.4x at its current price. Also as aforementioned, there is about $10.0 of cash behind each BABA share, translating into ~11.8% of the current share price. The cash position is actually higher than in Q1 (about $9.3 per share at that time). And adjusted for the cash position, its current PE is only about 10.1x, actually lower than the 11.7x multiple in Q1 despite the decrease in earnings.Readers familiar with our approach know that valuation shouldn't be looked at in isolation. It should be always interpreted together with the quality of the business. And that is what the next chart intends to do. These seemingly random stocks picked for this chart represent some of the largest Berkshire (BRK.A) (BRK.B) holdings, and hence, the green dotted line is what I call a Buffett value line. As detailed in my earlier article:The Buffett’s value line is a line linking A) the origin (a business that has 0 ROCE should worth O PE), and B) Buffett’s largest holding AAPL (which happens to have the highest ROCE among this group of stocks).Since you always have the choice to buy AAPL, it makes little sense to buy stocks above this line (except for the need for diversification). As seen, BABA now lies below this line (right next to AbbVie (ABBV), another stock we also hold) by a good margin, suggesting a valuation that is more compressed when adjusted for ROCE than on the surface.Source: author and Seeking Alpha data.Risks and final thoughtsBABA faces many risks. Potential investors should be cautious of the extreme uncertainties here. As detailed by many SA authors (ourselves included), some risks could lead to 100% loss (such as VIE) or large losses (such as delisting). Here, I will limit my discussions to the risks that are more relevant to business fundamentals and operations. I am cautiously optimistic about the company’s business operation outlook in the next 1 or 2 years. The impact of the COVID-19 restrictions in China remains the largest risk in my view. With China’s Zero COVID policy still in place, customer growth in its China Commerce division (TaoBao and Tmall, to name a few) faces an uncertain recovery path. And so do the overall economic conditions in the country.To conclude, this article focused on 3 things in BABA’s Q3 ER that are less discussed by other SA authors so far. Its profitability, as measured by ROCE, indeed has suffered strong headwinds, shrinking from ~100% in Q1 to the current 62%. But a ROCE of around 62% is still highly competitive even compared to the FAAMG stocks. Such a robust ROCE, when combined with its capital allocation flexibility, offers healthy growth prospects. For example, its International Commerce Retail segment, including Lazada and AliExpress, offers plenty of upsides. And finally, the valuation, especially when adjusted for its ROCE and sizable cash position, is simply too compressed to make sense the way I see it.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"BABA":0.9,"09988":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1789,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9963792192,"gmtCreate":1668750249216,"gmtModify":1676538107874,"author":{"id":"3574914526090483","authorId":"3574914526090483","name":"yeelyn18","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ae47c3e96729c68a0234dd22850dfe69","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3574914526090483","idStr":"3574914526090483"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Ok","listText":"Ok","text":"Ok","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":5,"commentSize":2,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9963792192","repostId":"1103280772","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1103280772","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1668736676,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1103280772?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2022-11-18 09:57","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Bullard Sets Tone for Fed Officials Signaling Hikes Will Roll On","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1103280772","media":"Bloomberg","summary":"Borrowing costs should be high enough to curb inflationTightening has had limited effect on prices s","content":"<div>\n<p>Borrowing costs should be high enough to curb inflationTightening has had limited effect on prices so far, he saysSt. Louis Fed President James Bullard said policymakers should raise interest rates to...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2022-11-17/fed-s-bullard-says-more-hikes-needed-to-get-to-restrictive-level\">Source Link</a>\n\n</div>\n","source":"lsy1584095487587","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Bullard Sets Tone for Fed Officials Signaling Hikes Will Roll On</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; 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overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nBullard Sets Tone for Fed Officials Signaling Hikes Will Roll On\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2022-11-18 09:57 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2022-11-17/fed-s-bullard-says-more-hikes-needed-to-get-to-restrictive-level><strong>Bloomberg</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>Borrowing costs should be high enough to curb inflationTightening has had limited effect on prices so far, he saysSt. Louis Fed President James Bullard said policymakers should raise interest rates to...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2022-11-17/fed-s-bullard-says-more-hikes-needed-to-get-to-restrictive-level\">Source Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{".DJI":"道琼斯",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index"},"source_url":"https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2022-11-17/fed-s-bullard-says-more-hikes-needed-to-get-to-restrictive-level","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1103280772","content_text":"Borrowing costs should be high enough to curb inflationTightening has had limited effect on prices so far, he saysSt. Louis Fed President James Bullard said policymakers should raise interest rates to at least 5% to 5.25%, hitting financial markets as investors recalibrated bets on how high officials would go.“In the past I have said 4.75% to 5%,” he told reporters Thursday after giving a speech in Louisville, Kentucky. “Based on this analysis today, I would say 5% to 5.25%. That’s a minimum level. According to this analysis, that would at least get us in the zone.”Chair Jerome Powell said earlier this month that rates will need to rise more than previously expected due to disappointing inflation data, while suggesting that officials could moderate the size of their increases going forward. A key reading on consumer prices since then was better than expected but policymakers continue to stress the need to keep raising rates.Officials in September had projected rates rising to around 4.6% next year from a current target range of 3.75% to 4%. Those projections will be updated at the Fed’s Dec. 13-14 meeting.US 10-year Treasury yields climbed after Bullard became the latest official to say that interest rates had further to rise to curb the strongest inflation in 40 years.San Francisco Fed President Mary Daly said on Wednesday that “somewhere between 4.75 and 5.25 seems a reasonable place to think about” for the level that officials should raise rates to then go on hold.Bullard’s hawkish tone was echoed later on Thursday by Minneapolis Fed President Neel Kashkari, whosaidit’s an “open question” how far the central bank has to go with rates to bring demand back into balance.“I need to be convinced that inflation has at least stopped climbing, that we’re not falling further behind the curve before I would advocate stopping a progression of future rate hikes, so we’re not there yet,” he told the Minnesota Chamber of Commerce’s 2022 Economic Summit.“The Fed is still maintaining a outward appearance of hawkishness pending another month of inflation data,” said Guy LeBas, chief fixed-income strategist for Janney Montgomery Scott LLC in Philadelphia. “One month of lower inflation doesn’t mean the war is over.”Data last week showed consumer inflation rising by a less-than-expected 7.7% in the 12 months through October. November’s reading will be released on Dec. 13, before officials begin their two days of policy deliberations.During his presentation, Bullard showed charts that indicated rates will need to be between about 5% to 7% to meet policymakers’ goal of being “sufficiently restrictive” to curb inflation near a four-decade high.The calculation used different versions of a Taylor Rule, a popular monetary policy guideline developed by Stanford University’s John Taylor.‘Minimal’ Level“It’s easy to make arguments that before this is all over you’d have to go to much higher levels of the policy rate” than 5.25%, said Bullard, who votes on policy this year. “But for now I’d be happy to get to the minimal level and that’s why I think the committee is going to have to do more.”The St. Louis Fed leader, who has been among the more hawkish policymakers this year, was the latest central banker to call for additional action.The Fed raised rates by 75 basis points on Nov. 2 for the fourth straight time as part of its most aggressive tightening since the 1980s to curb an inflation that started in the wake of the Covid-19 pandemic disruptions.Bullard didn’t say whether he would favor a 50 or 75 basis-point move at the Fed’s December meeting, telling reporters that he would look to Powell to set the direction.A number of his colleagues have called for a downshift in the size of the next rate increase following last week’s consumer price report, which showed a softening in core consumer goods inflation in October.Investors expect the Fed will raise rates by a half percentage point next month and see rates peaking around 5% next year.The St. Louis Fed president said he expected officials to keep rates high for an extended period to avoid the kind of monetary policy mistakes of the 1970s that resulted in persistently high inflation.“We certainly don’t want to replay that episode,” he told reporters. “So we’re going to have to see very tangible evidence that inflation’s coming down meaningfully toward target, and I think we’re going to want to err on the side of staying higher for longer in order to get that to happen.”Bullard said while he expected inflation to come down next year, there’s been relatively little evidence of that so far.“Thus far, the change in the monetary-policy stance appears to have had only limited effects on observed inflation, but market pricing suggests disinflation is expected in 2023,” Bullard said in his prepared remarks, adding rate hikes so far have caused little financial stress.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{".DJI":0.9,".IXIC":0.9,".SPX":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1143,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9010437637,"gmtCreate":1648444355896,"gmtModify":1676534338600,"author":{"id":"3574914526090483","authorId":"3574914526090483","name":"yeelyn18","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ae47c3e96729c68a0234dd22850dfe69","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3574914526090483","idStr":"3574914526090483"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"K","listText":"K","text":"K","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":7,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9010437637","repostId":"2222885292","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"2222885292","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1648420879,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/2222885292?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2022-03-28 06:41","market":"us","language":"en","title":"March Jobs Report, PCE Inflation, Consumer Confidence: What to Know This Week","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2222885292","media":"Yahoo Finance","summary":"The March jobs report takes center stage this week. The Labor Department’s monthly snapshot of U.S. ","content":"<html><head></head><body><p>The March jobs report takes center stage this week. The Labor Department’s monthly snapshot of U.S. employment will be closely watched by market participants and will carry special weight as Federal Reserve officials appear to signal more hawkishness in the central bank’s rate-hiking plans. Meanwhile, Core PCE, the Fed’s preferred inflation gauge, is also due out Wednesday and will offer further clues on how aggressive the next interest rate bump could be.</p><p>Despite a streak of seesaw action, markets have mostly fared well since the Fed raised interest rates by 25 basis points on March 16 in the first hike since 2018. The Dow Jones Industrial Average, Nasdaq Composite, and S&amp;P 500 each registered their second straight week of gains on Friday to close at one-month highs.</p><p>Still, questions remain around the central bank’s path forward and investors are watching closely to see whether the ramp up in short-term rates that is underway will blunt the market’s gains.</p><p>The latest jobs report due out Friday comes as traders are braced for the likelihood that Fed officials may lean into higher borrowing costs more aggressively than anticipated after recent remarks from Fed Chair Jerome Powell indicating “ongoing rate increases will be appropriate” to lower inflation readings. If Friday’s employment data shows a tighter-than-ever labor market, policymakers could be even more inclined to move ahead with a 50-basis point hike.</p><p>“The payroll jobs report could be the biggest one yet in this recovery from the pandemic,” FWDBONDS chief economist Christopher Rupkey said in a recent note. “Federal Reserve officials are already chomping at the bit for bigger 50 bps rate hikes at upcoming meetings, and the tightest labor market since the 1960s is like pouring gasoline on the fire where any policy official worth his or her salt is burning with desire to get interest rates up to 2% neutral levels now.”</p><p>All things suggest a jaw-dropping jobs report. Last week, U.S. jobless claims notched the lowest level since September 1969 at 187,000 filings. Moreover, the most recent employment report blew past what economists had estimated, posting a stunning 687,000 jobs added or created during the month of February. The March report is expected to show another robust reading with payrolls likely to rise by 490,000, according to Bloomberg economist estimates.</p><p>This labor market tightness has strongly informed the Fed’s decision to rein in monetary policy, with economic momentum suggesting to officials that the U.S. economy could weather less accommodative financial conditions.</p><p>“The Federal Reserve has a dual mandate to promote employment and stable prices,” Bankrate senior industry analyst Ted Rossman said in a note. “The strong labor market is leading the Fed to focus squarely on combating the high inflation rate. Fed Chair Jerome Powell recently hinted at a more aggressive pace of rate hikes, and this report fits that narrative since inflation is a much bigger concern than unemployment right now.”</p><p>While an improving labor market is good for U.S. households, widespread job openings have made room for significant leverage for workers, driving wage gains higher and further elevating inflationary pressures.</p><p>To add to that, Bank of America pointed out that amid the labor market recovery is a higher level of job openings for any given unemployment rate than compared to prior history. As a result, the short-run inflation neutral unemployment rate (NAIRU) may be higher than longer-run estimates, implying more sustained wage and price pressures in the near-term, according to the bank.</p><p>The Labor Department&#39;s JOLTs (Job Openings and Labor Turnover Summary) for February will be released Tuesday with analysts, according to Bloomberg consensus, expecting vacancies of 11 million, similar to January&#39;s results.</p><p>“The pandemic labor market has seen an extraordinary outward shift in the Beveridge curve (the relationship between unemployment and the job vacancy rate), suggesting difficulty in matching workers to jobs,” BofA economists said in a recent note. “This mismatch may reflect surging goods spending and hence a shortage of workers in the hottest part of the economy.”</p><h2><b>Fed&#39;s measure of inflation</b></h2><p>Also on the inflation front, the Bureau of Economic Analysis is scheduled to release a fresh read on its monthly personal consumption expenditures (PCE) deflator this Thursday. The measure is another gauge of how quickly prices are increasing across the country. Consensus economists expect the PCE to post a rise of another 0.6% in February, according to Bloomberg data, This would mark the 15th consecutive monthly increase and bring the index up by 6.4% on a year-over-year basis.</p><p>The core PCE index, which the Fed uses to conduct monetary policy, is also expected to show an increase when the print publishes Wednesday. Consensus economists are looking for a 5.5% increase in core PCE in February, compared to January’s 5.2% rise.</p><p>The Fed&#39;s already arduous task of mitigating inflation without stunting economic growth is further complicated by geopolitical turmoil in Eastern Europe. War in Ukraine and penalizing sanctions against Russia for its invasion of the country have raised uncertainty in recent weeks over the conflict’s toll on the global economic picture and potential spillover consequences for the U.S. Namely, rising oil prices have elevated inflation expectations. WTI crude oil futures snapped a two-week losing streak to round out the week 8.8% higher at $113.90 per barrel as of Friday&#39;s close.</p><p>OPEC+ (Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries) is scheduled to hold a virtual meeting on March 31 with Russia and its nine other allies to discuss May production levels. The intergovernmental organization is expected to maintain current production plans, even as crude oil prices trade at a 14-year high.</p><p>“The Fed seems to be the only central bank still focused on increasing its hawkishness” amid higher energy prices and inflation,&#34; Charles Schwab Chief Global Investment Strategist Jeffrey Kleintop told Yahoo Finance Live. “It’s noteworthy.”</p><h2><b>Consumer confidence</b></h2><p>As inflation worries mount, consumers are getting wary about what&#39;s ahead. The Conference Board&#39;s Consumer Confidence Index due for release on Tuesday will show a timely snapshot of their thinking following the latest spike in prices. Economists surveyed by Bloomberg are looking for the index to fall to 107.0 for March following a read of 110.5 last month.</p><p>Last week&#39;s further decline in the University of Michigan&#39;s final consumer sentiment index for March, which fell to 59.4 from a preliminary reading of 59.7 and 62.8 in the prior month, is an indication of consumers&#39; changing attitude about their economic future. The survey saw more consumers report reduced living standards due to rising inflation than any other time except during the two worst recessions in the past 50 years: from March 1979 to April 1981, and from May to October 2008, the University of Michigan said.</p><p>&#34;Usually consumers fret about job opportunities and the lack thereof, but this time, the consumer is in sync with Fed officials that the greatest danger the economy faces is inflation,&#34; Rupkey said in recent commentary. &#34;Consumers continue to spend, but future consumption is very much in doubt as the cost of store bought goods soars ever higher.&#34;</p><p>&#34;We have rarely seen consumers this pessimistic outside of the darkest days of recessions, but the polling indicates the public is more scared about their economic future than they have been in years,&#34; he wrote. &#34;Everyone get out of the way because if the consumer stops, then the economy drops and it will be a miracle if the economy can avoid a shipwreck on the shores of recession.&#34;</p><p>Earnings season has winded down — though the next quarterly read (representing the first three months of 2022) will be underway soon. A few reports are in the queue to trickle in on Friday, with names including <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/JEF\">Jefferies Financial </a>, <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/CHWY\">Chewy </a>, <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/LULU\">Lululemon </a>, and others.</p><p><b>Economic calendar</b></p><p><b>Monday:</b> Advance Goods Trade Balance, February (-$106.3 billion expected, -$107.6 billion during prior month); Wholesale Inventories, month-over-month, February preliminary (1.2% expected, 0.8% during previous month, upwardly revised to 1.0%); Retail Inventories, month-over-month, February (1.4% expected, 4.9% during prior month); Dallas Fed Manufacturing Activity, March (11 expected, 14 during prior month)</p><p><b>Tuesday:</b> FHFA House Pricing Index, month-over-month, January (1.3% expected, 1.2% during prior month); S&amp;P <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/CLGX\">CoreLogic</a> Case-Shiller 20-City Composite, month-over-month, January (1.50% expected, 1.46% during prior month); S&amp;P CoreLogic Case-Shiller 20-City Composite, year-over-year, January (18.55% expected, 18.56% during prior month); S&amp;P CoreLogic Case-Shiller U.S. National Home Price Index, year-over-year, January (18.84% during prior month); Conference Board Consumer Confidence, March (107.0 expected, 110.5 during prior read); Conference Board Present Situation, March (145.1 during prior read); Conference Board Expectations, March (87.5 during prior read); JOLTS job openings, February (11 million expected, 11.26 million during prior month)</p><p><b>Wednesday:</b> MBA Mortgage Applications, week ended March 25 (-8.1% during prior week); ADP Employment Change, March (450,000 expected, 475,000 during prior month); GDP Annualized, quarter-over-quarter, 4Q third (7.0% expected, 7.0% prior); Personal Consumption, quarter-over-quarter, 4Q third (3.1% expected, 3.1% prior); GDP Price Index, quarter-over-quarter, 4Q third (7.1% expected, 7.1% prior); Core PCE, quarter-over-quarter, 4Q third (5.0% expected, 5.0% prior);</p><p><b>Thursday</b>: Challenger Job Cuts, year-over-year, March (-55.9% during prior month); Personal Income, month-over-month, February (0.5% expected, 0.0% during prior month); Personal Spending, month-over-month, February (0.5% expected, 2.1% during prior month); Real Personal Spending, month-over-month, February (-0.2% expected, 1.5% during prior month); PCE deflator, month-over-month, February (0.6% expected, 0.6% during prior month); PCE deflator, year-over-year, February (6.4% expected, 6.1% during prior month); PCE core deflator, month-over-month, February (0.4% expected, 0.5% during prior month); PCE core deflator, year-over-year, February (5.5% expected, 5.2% during prior month); Initial Jobless Claims, week ended March 26 (200,000 expected, 187,000 during prior week); Continuing Claims, week ended March 19 (1.35 million expected, 1.35 million during prior week); MNI Chicago PMI, March (57.0 expected, 56.3 during prior month)</p><p><b>Friday: </b><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TWOA.U\">Two</a>-Month Payroll Net Revision, March (92,000 prior); Change in Nonfarm Payrolls, March (490,000 expected, 678,000 during prior month); Change in Private Payrolls, March (408,000 expected, 444,000 during prior month); Change in Manufacturing Payrolls, January (30,000 expected, 36,000 during prior month); Unemployment Rate, March (3.7% expected, 3.8% during prior month); Average Hourly Earnings, month-over-month, March (0.4% expected, 0.0% during prior month); Average Hourly Earnings, year-over-year, March (5.5% expected, 5.1% prior month); Average Weekly Hours All Employees, March (34.7 expected, 34.7 during prior month); Labor Force Participation Rate, March (62.4% expected, 62.3% during prior month); Underemployment Rate, March (7.2% prior month); S&amp;P Global Manufacturing PMI, March final (58.5 expected, 58.5 during prior month); Construction Spending, month-over-month, February (1.0% expected, 1.3% during prior month); ISM Manufacturing, March (59.0 expected, 58.6 during prior month); ISM Prices Paid, March (80 expected, 75.6 prior month); ISM New Orders, March (61.7 during prior month); ISM Employment, March (52.9 during prior month); WARDS Total Vehicle Sales, March (13.90 million expected, 14.07 million prior month)</p><h3><b>Earnings calendar</b></h3><p><b>Monday</b></p><p>Before market open: <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TPG\">TPG </a></p><p>After market close: <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/JEF\">Jefferies Financial </a>, <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/PLAY\">Dave &amp; Buster’s Entertainment </a></p><p><b>Tuesday</b></p><p>Before market open: <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MKC\">McCormick </a></p><p>After market close: <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/CHWY\">Chewy </a>, <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/RH\">RH </a>, <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MU\">Micron Technology </a>, <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/LULU\">Lululemon </a></p><p><b>Wednesday</b></p><p>Before market open: <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/FIVE\">Five Below</a></p><p>After market close: <i>No notable reports scheduled for release</i></p><p><b>Thursday</b></p><p>Before market open: <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/WBA\">Walgreens Boots Alliance</a> (WBA)</p><p>After market close: <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BB\">Blackberry </a></p><p><b>Friday</b></p><p>No notable reports scheduled for release</p></body></html>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>March Jobs Report, PCE Inflation, Consumer Confidence: What to Know This Week</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; 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}\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nMarch Jobs Report, PCE Inflation, Consumer Confidence: What to Know This Week\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2022-03-28 06:41 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://finance.yahoo.com/news/march-jobs-report-pce-inflation-fed-hike-watch-what-to-know-this-week-160533408.html><strong>Yahoo Finance</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>The March jobs report takes center stage this week. The Labor Department’s monthly snapshot of U.S. employment will be closely watched by market participants and will carry special weight as Federal ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://finance.yahoo.com/news/march-jobs-report-pce-inflation-fed-hike-watch-what-to-know-this-week-160533408.html\">Source Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"BK4127":"投资银行业与经纪业","JEF":"杰富瑞","BK4533":"AQR资本管理(全球第二大对冲基金)","BK4122":"互联网与直销零售","BK4575":"芯片概念","BK4566":"资本集团","SPY":"标普500ETF","BK4547":"WSB热门概念","MKC":"味好美","BK4212":"包装食品与肉类","MU":"美光科技","BK4178":"家庭装饰零售","BK4504":"桥水持仓","BK4559":"巴菲特持仓","LULU":"lululemon athletica","BK4135":"资产管理与托管银行","BK4209":"餐馆","CHWY":"Chewy, Inc.","BK4579":"人工智能","BK4550":"红杉资本持仓","QQQ":"纳指100ETF","TPG":"TPG, Inc.","BK4548":"巴美列捷福持仓","BK4202":"服装、服饰与奢侈品","WBA":"沃尔格林联合博姿","BK4128":"药品零售","BB":"黑莓","PLAY":"Dave & Buster","BK4561":"索罗斯持仓","FIVE":"Five Below","BK4097":"系统软件","BK4554":"元宇宙及AR概念","BK4532":"文艺复兴科技持仓","BK4581":"高盛持仓","SPY.AU":"SPDR® S&P 500® ETF Trust","BK4527":"明星科技股","BK4512":"苹果概念","BK4553":"喜马拉雅资本持仓","RH":"RH","BK4200":"专卖店","BK4534":"瑞士信贷持仓","BK4141":"半导体产品"},"source_url":"https://finance.yahoo.com/news/march-jobs-report-pce-inflation-fed-hike-watch-what-to-know-this-week-160533408.html","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2222885292","content_text":"The March jobs report takes center stage this week. The Labor Department’s monthly snapshot of U.S. employment will be closely watched by market participants and will carry special weight as Federal Reserve officials appear to signal more hawkishness in the central bank’s rate-hiking plans. Meanwhile, Core PCE, the Fed’s preferred inflation gauge, is also due out Wednesday and will offer further clues on how aggressive the next interest rate bump could be.Despite a streak of seesaw action, markets have mostly fared well since the Fed raised interest rates by 25 basis points on March 16 in the first hike since 2018. The Dow Jones Industrial Average, Nasdaq Composite, and S&P 500 each registered their second straight week of gains on Friday to close at one-month highs.Still, questions remain around the central bank’s path forward and investors are watching closely to see whether the ramp up in short-term rates that is underway will blunt the market’s gains.The latest jobs report due out Friday comes as traders are braced for the likelihood that Fed officials may lean into higher borrowing costs more aggressively than anticipated after recent remarks from Fed Chair Jerome Powell indicating “ongoing rate increases will be appropriate” to lower inflation readings. If Friday’s employment data shows a tighter-than-ever labor market, policymakers could be even more inclined to move ahead with a 50-basis point hike.“The payroll jobs report could be the biggest one yet in this recovery from the pandemic,” FWDBONDS chief economist Christopher Rupkey said in a recent note. “Federal Reserve officials are already chomping at the bit for bigger 50 bps rate hikes at upcoming meetings, and the tightest labor market since the 1960s is like pouring gasoline on the fire where any policy official worth his or her salt is burning with desire to get interest rates up to 2% neutral levels now.”All things suggest a jaw-dropping jobs report. Last week, U.S. jobless claims notched the lowest level since September 1969 at 187,000 filings. Moreover, the most recent employment report blew past what economists had estimated, posting a stunning 687,000 jobs added or created during the month of February. The March report is expected to show another robust reading with payrolls likely to rise by 490,000, according to Bloomberg economist estimates.This labor market tightness has strongly informed the Fed’s decision to rein in monetary policy, with economic momentum suggesting to officials that the U.S. economy could weather less accommodative financial conditions.“The Federal Reserve has a dual mandate to promote employment and stable prices,” Bankrate senior industry analyst Ted Rossman said in a note. “The strong labor market is leading the Fed to focus squarely on combating the high inflation rate. Fed Chair Jerome Powell recently hinted at a more aggressive pace of rate hikes, and this report fits that narrative since inflation is a much bigger concern than unemployment right now.”While an improving labor market is good for U.S. households, widespread job openings have made room for significant leverage for workers, driving wage gains higher and further elevating inflationary pressures.To add to that, Bank of America pointed out that amid the labor market recovery is a higher level of job openings for any given unemployment rate than compared to prior history. As a result, the short-run inflation neutral unemployment rate (NAIRU) may be higher than longer-run estimates, implying more sustained wage and price pressures in the near-term, according to the bank.The Labor Department's JOLTs (Job Openings and Labor Turnover Summary) for February will be released Tuesday with analysts, according to Bloomberg consensus, expecting vacancies of 11 million, similar to January's results.“The pandemic labor market has seen an extraordinary outward shift in the Beveridge curve (the relationship between unemployment and the job vacancy rate), suggesting difficulty in matching workers to jobs,” BofA economists said in a recent note. “This mismatch may reflect surging goods spending and hence a shortage of workers in the hottest part of the economy.”Fed's measure of inflationAlso on the inflation front, the Bureau of Economic Analysis is scheduled to release a fresh read on its monthly personal consumption expenditures (PCE) deflator this Thursday. The measure is another gauge of how quickly prices are increasing across the country. Consensus economists expect the PCE to post a rise of another 0.6% in February, according to Bloomberg data, This would mark the 15th consecutive monthly increase and bring the index up by 6.4% on a year-over-year basis.The core PCE index, which the Fed uses to conduct monetary policy, is also expected to show an increase when the print publishes Wednesday. Consensus economists are looking for a 5.5% increase in core PCE in February, compared to January’s 5.2% rise.The Fed's already arduous task of mitigating inflation without stunting economic growth is further complicated by geopolitical turmoil in Eastern Europe. War in Ukraine and penalizing sanctions against Russia for its invasion of the country have raised uncertainty in recent weeks over the conflict’s toll on the global economic picture and potential spillover consequences for the U.S. Namely, rising oil prices have elevated inflation expectations. WTI crude oil futures snapped a two-week losing streak to round out the week 8.8% higher at $113.90 per barrel as of Friday's close.OPEC+ (Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries) is scheduled to hold a virtual meeting on March 31 with Russia and its nine other allies to discuss May production levels. The intergovernmental organization is expected to maintain current production plans, even as crude oil prices trade at a 14-year high.“The Fed seems to be the only central bank still focused on increasing its hawkishness” amid higher energy prices and inflation,\" Charles Schwab Chief Global Investment Strategist Jeffrey Kleintop told Yahoo Finance Live. “It’s noteworthy.”Consumer confidenceAs inflation worries mount, consumers are getting wary about what's ahead. The Conference Board's Consumer Confidence Index due for release on Tuesday will show a timely snapshot of their thinking following the latest spike in prices. Economists surveyed by Bloomberg are looking for the index to fall to 107.0 for March following a read of 110.5 last month.Last week's further decline in the University of Michigan's final consumer sentiment index for March, which fell to 59.4 from a preliminary reading of 59.7 and 62.8 in the prior month, is an indication of consumers' changing attitude about their economic future. The survey saw more consumers report reduced living standards due to rising inflation than any other time except during the two worst recessions in the past 50 years: from March 1979 to April 1981, and from May to October 2008, the University of Michigan said.\"Usually consumers fret about job opportunities and the lack thereof, but this time, the consumer is in sync with Fed officials that the greatest danger the economy faces is inflation,\" Rupkey said in recent commentary. \"Consumers continue to spend, but future consumption is very much in doubt as the cost of store bought goods soars ever higher.\"\"We have rarely seen consumers this pessimistic outside of the darkest days of recessions, but the polling indicates the public is more scared about their economic future than they have been in years,\" he wrote. \"Everyone get out of the way because if the consumer stops, then the economy drops and it will be a miracle if the economy can avoid a shipwreck on the shores of recession.\"Earnings season has winded down — though the next quarterly read (representing the first three months of 2022) will be underway soon. A few reports are in the queue to trickle in on Friday, with names including Jefferies Financial , Chewy , Lululemon , and others.Economic calendarMonday: Advance Goods Trade Balance, February (-$106.3 billion expected, -$107.6 billion during prior month); Wholesale Inventories, month-over-month, February preliminary (1.2% expected, 0.8% during previous month, upwardly revised to 1.0%); Retail Inventories, month-over-month, February (1.4% expected, 4.9% during prior month); Dallas Fed Manufacturing Activity, March (11 expected, 14 during prior month)Tuesday: FHFA House Pricing Index, month-over-month, January (1.3% expected, 1.2% during prior month); S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller 20-City Composite, month-over-month, January (1.50% expected, 1.46% during prior month); S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller 20-City Composite, year-over-year, January (18.55% expected, 18.56% during prior month); S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller U.S. National Home Price Index, year-over-year, January (18.84% during prior month); Conference Board Consumer Confidence, March (107.0 expected, 110.5 during prior read); Conference Board Present Situation, March (145.1 during prior read); Conference Board Expectations, March (87.5 during prior read); JOLTS job openings, February (11 million expected, 11.26 million during prior month)Wednesday: MBA Mortgage Applications, week ended March 25 (-8.1% during prior week); ADP Employment Change, March (450,000 expected, 475,000 during prior month); GDP Annualized, quarter-over-quarter, 4Q third (7.0% expected, 7.0% prior); Personal Consumption, quarter-over-quarter, 4Q third (3.1% expected, 3.1% prior); GDP Price Index, quarter-over-quarter, 4Q third (7.1% expected, 7.1% prior); Core PCE, quarter-over-quarter, 4Q third (5.0% expected, 5.0% prior);Thursday: Challenger Job Cuts, year-over-year, March (-55.9% during prior month); Personal Income, month-over-month, February (0.5% expected, 0.0% during prior month); Personal Spending, month-over-month, February (0.5% expected, 2.1% during prior month); Real Personal Spending, month-over-month, February (-0.2% expected, 1.5% during prior month); PCE deflator, month-over-month, February (0.6% expected, 0.6% during prior month); PCE deflator, year-over-year, February (6.4% expected, 6.1% during prior month); PCE core deflator, month-over-month, February (0.4% expected, 0.5% during prior month); PCE core deflator, year-over-year, February (5.5% expected, 5.2% during prior month); Initial Jobless Claims, week ended March 26 (200,000 expected, 187,000 during prior week); Continuing Claims, week ended March 19 (1.35 million expected, 1.35 million during prior week); MNI Chicago PMI, March (57.0 expected, 56.3 during prior month)Friday: Two-Month Payroll Net Revision, March (92,000 prior); Change in Nonfarm Payrolls, March (490,000 expected, 678,000 during prior month); Change in Private Payrolls, March (408,000 expected, 444,000 during prior month); Change in Manufacturing Payrolls, January (30,000 expected, 36,000 during prior month); Unemployment Rate, March (3.7% expected, 3.8% during prior month); Average Hourly Earnings, month-over-month, March (0.4% expected, 0.0% during prior month); Average Hourly Earnings, year-over-year, March (5.5% expected, 5.1% prior month); Average Weekly Hours All Employees, March (34.7 expected, 34.7 during prior month); Labor Force Participation Rate, March (62.4% expected, 62.3% during prior month); Underemployment Rate, March (7.2% prior month); S&P Global Manufacturing PMI, March final (58.5 expected, 58.5 during prior month); Construction Spending, month-over-month, February (1.0% expected, 1.3% during prior month); ISM Manufacturing, March (59.0 expected, 58.6 during prior month); ISM Prices Paid, March (80 expected, 75.6 prior month); ISM New Orders, March (61.7 during prior month); ISM Employment, March (52.9 during prior month); WARDS Total Vehicle Sales, March (13.90 million expected, 14.07 million prior month)Earnings calendarMondayBefore market open: TPG After market close: Jefferies Financial , Dave & Buster’s Entertainment TuesdayBefore market open: McCormick After market close: Chewy , RH , Micron Technology , Lululemon WednesdayBefore market open: Five BelowAfter market close: No notable reports scheduled for releaseThursdayBefore market open: Walgreens Boots Alliance (WBA)After market close: Blackberry FridayNo notable reports scheduled for release","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"LULU":1,"JEF":1,"MU":1,"RH":1,"TPG":1,"MKC":1,"BB":1,"CHWY":1,"SPY.AU":0.6,"PLAY":1,"QQQ":0.9,"WBA":1,"FIVE":1,"SPY":0.6}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":605,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0}],"lives":[]}