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JWZ137

JWZ137

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2022-02-19

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Reminder: U.S. stocks will be closed for one day on February 21 for Washington's birthday

2022-05-16

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2022-02-27

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Chinese faces in Ukraine, how are they doing now

2021-05-14

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Jobless Americans in at least 16 states could get a rude awakening

2021-04-07

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Opinion: Financial crises get triggered about every 10 years — Archegos might be right on time

2022-06-25

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2022-02-27

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Chinese faces in Ukraine, how are they doing now

2021-05-05

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IPO Preview: Honest Company, Chinese Lifestyle Brand Onion Global, Hydroponic iPower Lead Group

2021-04-02

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2022-04-16

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沒什麼好說的, 美國經濟繼續向好, 加息沒有放緩的跡象. 股市繼續被錘…本週收益情況交易四天，爲了最大化的利用時間價值。我在上週開倉了經常操作的熱門股: nvda，tsla，以及本週的財報股: hd，wmt前幾周長時間熬夜，導致身體出現了明顯的問題(頭皮屑明顯增加, 眼睛視力感覺也有明顯下降)，這周去醫院門診看了一下, 醫生開了藥並建議不要熬夜. 這周開始堅持12點之前睡覺(醫生建議11點前睡覺)，並且10點半前提前睡一覺。不過因爲前面長期的習慣, 還是半夜自然醒來拿出手機點開app, 有點類似上學的時候, 躲在被窩裏面拿手電看書, 現如今是躲在被窩用手機看盤…發現操作的期權標的週期越長，操作的頻繁就會降低，我在A股和港股也有期權交易，但是他們只有月期權，沒有周期權，我的操作頻率明顯低很多，特別是A股，由於標的少，可操作的空間少，一個月基本就是開倉，然後等着變廢紙，除非漲跌幅過大，或者超出自己的盈虧點之間的範圍(均採用iron condor策略)等這波財報季過去後，我計劃把美股期權的週期拉長點。本週發財報多集中在週四，所以需要考慮最大化利用保證金，財報頭天開倉，公佈後快速平倉，是最好的策略wmt週二財報公佈後全部平倉，收回保證金hd在財報公佈後，股價下跌明顯，put端依然虧損，但離盈虧平衡點有一段距離，繼續持有，等待時間衰減。一開始call端的iv並沒有顯著下降，於是零星快速sell call option，撿了點便宜這周還交易的財報股: 百度, CoinBase, 達美樂披薩, ETSY, MRNA, SQ, Wayfair, 都已安全下車.繼續做時間的朋友，時間換空間，讓前面\"暴雷\"(axp，meta，abnb)的浮虧變實盈，axp已經全部收回收益，meta還剩最後一點，不出問題，下週全部收回，abnb這周繼續單邊下跌，讓short strangle","listText":"這周美股連跌四天, 沒什麼好說的, 美國經濟繼續向好, 加息沒有放緩的跡象. 股市繼續被錘…本週收益情況交易四天，爲了最大化的利用時間價值。我在上週開倉了經常操作的熱門股: nvda，tsla，以及本週的財報股: hd，wmt前幾周長時間熬夜，導致身體出現了明顯的問題(頭皮屑明顯增加, 眼睛視力感覺也有明顯下降)，這周去醫院門診看了一下, 醫生開了藥並建議不要熬夜. 這周開始堅持12點之前睡覺(醫生建議11點前睡覺)，並且10點半前提前睡一覺。不過因爲前面長期的習慣, 還是半夜自然醒來拿出手機點開app, 有點類似上學的時候, 躲在被窩裏面拿手電看書, 現如今是躲在被窩用手機看盤…發現操作的期權標的週期越長，操作的頻繁就會降低，我在A股和港股也有期權交易，但是他們只有月期權，沒有周期權，我的操作頻率明顯低很多，特別是A股，由於標的少，可操作的空間少，一個月基本就是開倉，然後等着變廢紙，除非漲跌幅過大，或者超出自己的盈虧點之間的範圍(均採用iron condor策略)等這波財報季過去後，我計劃把美股期權的週期拉長點。本週發財報多集中在週四，所以需要考慮最大化利用保證金，財報頭天開倉，公佈後快速平倉，是最好的策略wmt週二財報公佈後全部平倉，收回保證金hd在財報公佈後，股價下跌明顯，put端依然虧損，但離盈虧平衡點有一段距離，繼續持有，等待時間衰減。一開始call端的iv並沒有顯著下降，於是零星快速sell call option，撿了點便宜這周還交易的財報股: 百度, CoinBase, 達美樂披薩, ETSY, MRNA, SQ, Wayfair, 都已安全下車.繼續做時間的朋友，時間換空間，讓前面\"暴雷\"(axp，meta，abnb)的浮虧變實盈，axp已經全部收回收益，meta還剩最後一點，不出問題，下週全部收回，abnb這周繼續單邊下跌，讓short strangle","text":"這周美股連跌四天, 沒什麼好說的, 美國經濟繼續向好, 加息沒有放緩的跡象. 股市繼續被錘…本週收益情況交易四天，爲了最大化的利用時間價值。我在上週開倉了經常操作的熱門股: nvda，tsla，以及本週的財報股: hd，wmt前幾周長時間熬夜，導致身體出現了明顯的問題(頭皮屑明顯增加, 眼睛視力感覺也有明顯下降)，這周去醫院門診看了一下, 醫生開了藥並建議不要熬夜. 這周開始堅持12點之前睡覺(醫生建議11點前睡覺)，並且10點半前提前睡一覺。不過因爲前面長期的習慣, 還是半夜自然醒來拿出手機點開app, 有點類似上學的時候, 躲在被窩裏面拿手電看書, 現如今是躲在被窩用手機看盤…發現操作的期權標的週期越長，操作的頻繁就會降低，我在A股和港股也有期權交易，但是他們只有月期權，沒有周期權，我的操作頻率明顯低很多，特別是A股，由於標的少，可操作的空間少，一個月基本就是開倉，然後等着變廢紙，除非漲跌幅過大，或者超出自己的盈虧點之間的範圍(均採用iron condor策略)等這波財報季過去後，我計劃把美股期權的週期拉長點。本週發財報多集中在週四，所以需要考慮最大化利用保證金，財報頭天開倉，公佈後快速平倉，是最好的策略wmt週二財報公佈後全部平倉，收回保證金hd在財報公佈後，股價下跌明顯，put端依然虧損，但離盈虧平衡點有一段距離，繼續持有，等待時間衰減。一開始call端的iv並沒有顯著下降，於是零星快速sell call option，撿了點便宜這周還交易的財報股: 百度, CoinBase, 達美樂披薩, ETSY, MRNA, SQ, Wayfair, 都已安全下車.繼續做時間的朋友，時間換空間，讓前面\"暴雷\"(axp，meta，abnb)的浮虧變實盈，axp已經全部收回收益，meta還剩最後一點，不出問題，下週全部收回，abnb這周繼續單邊下跌，讓short strangle","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/08046051a29be6c4396df1470f4a0292","width":"1125","height":"1523"},{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8b8eabe476c334a0d34e060e34e2ee8a","width":"1125","height":"2436"},{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3d5dbbaa848de7f8115a46c54a1a3652","width":"1125","height":"1787"}],"top":1,"highlighted":2,"essential":1,"paper":2,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/624692354","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":0,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":7,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":3166,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9958195605,"gmtCreate":1673655270807,"gmtModify":1676538870717,"author":{"id":"3575067142498671","authorId":"3575067142498671","name":"JWZ137","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/842968796125e5a418b21a3b4ab603ef","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3575067142498671","idStr":"3575067142498671"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Wow&nbsp;","listText":"Wow&nbsp;","text":"Wow","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9958195605","repostId":"1117925030","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1117925030","kind":"news","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"提供来自华尔街的观点，观察市场，提供独道的解读视角。","home_visible":1,"media_name":"老虎锐评","id":"1005414032","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba"},"pubTimestamp":1673617910,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1117925030?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2023-01-13 21:51","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"Tiger Sharp Review | Tesla finally burns the \"war\" to traditional car companies","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1117925030","media":"老虎锐评","summary":"特斯拉的降价绝对是利好，没有任何质疑的空间。 ","content":"<p><html><head></head><body>The United States has entered the quarterly reporting period today, and there are really a lot to watch. For example, the macro trends hidden in the reports of big banks, Delta Airlines' expectations are not as good as expected (the news says it is an increase in Labor Cost-a trade union problem in the aviation industry), but all this In the face of Tesla's price cuts, it doesn't seem important anymore. Because Tesla's price reduction not only involves the company itself, but also involves the industry (automotive industry), and it is also a mirror of macro trends (consumption). Tesla has been a special case since the day it was born. It never needs to spend money on traffic, but the traffic it gets is fiercer than any other company.</p><p><b>First Point to Watch: Tesla Bears' Determination</b></p><p>Judging from the stock price, Tesla's short sellers have started to feel timid recently. The stock price has rebounded three times between $100 and $110, and failed to break through the psychological defense line of $100 as expected. However, Tesla's short sellers will never surrender easily. This wave of stock price pullback/retracement has made a lot of money, and it will feel affordable to be short squeezed for two days. From a rational point of view, there is not much reason for short positions. In order to break through technical points, fundamentals are not considered. Tesla's price cuts in Europe and the United States can be regarded as giving Tesla's short sellers an excuse to rekindle the war. However, after Tesla's price cuts in China, Tesla's global price cuts should be expected. At this time, using price cuts to short is so confident?</p><p><b>The second point to watch: the change of Tesla's bullish thinking</b></p><p>Tesla bulls (many retail investors) are relatively calm after being stunned by bears in this wave. Compared with the previous scene of rushing to beat up the short sellers, most of the bulls (especially retail investors) who are still left in the market have given up the illusion of a V-shaped rebound in three months, and are more patient. However, if Tesla bulls want to have absolute patience, they must realize that \"Tesla's price cuts are a good thing and will force its peers to die.\" I have analyzed this key point in the Chinese market, but looking at the subsequent changes in the stock price of Electric Sambo (it has not yet reached 30-50%), we know that the understanding of the capital market is very slow. If we want to understand \"Tesla Price cuts are a good thing and will force peers to die.\" It takes time.</p><p><b>The third highlight: How to respond to the new car-making forces in the United States</b></p><p>There are relatively few new car-making forces in the United States. The only ones that still exist are Lucid and Rivian. I don't think these two are even the slightest threat to Tesla, because Lucid is priced at $77K + and Rivian is priced at $70K +. More importantly, how are the gross profits of these two companies? Lucid's revenue in the first 9 months was $350 million, but COGS was $1 billion, and gross profit was negative.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d98618679b1a0647cc5704f184ea02e3\" tg-width=\"1468\" tg-height=\"230\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Rivian, like Lucid, has negative gross profit in the first nine months of 2022.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2a26bef2dacedd213a4d95f4b8f27958\" tg-width=\"1875\" tg-height=\"314\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>The gross profit is negative, which proves that these two companies have not even crossed the most basic life and death line, which is bigger than the problem of Chinese electric vehicle companies. So if Tesla doesn't cut prices, they are chronic deaths, if Tesla cuts prices, they are accelerated deaths.</p><p><b>The fourth highlight: How traditional American car companies respond</b></p><p>Tesla does not have any competitors in the field of new energy vehicles in Europe and the United States. The real competitors are traditional car companies, but it turns out that the two are well in different price ranges. Let's take a look at the gross profit of GM, a traditional American car company (because GM has many products, it is roughly estimated based on the overall gross profit of GM):</p><p>GM's total gross profit in the third quarter was $8.18 billion, and 1.537 million vehicles were sold worldwide. The gross profit of almost one car was $5,300. This is so low because most of GM's models are low-end models Chevrolet and GMC, and the prices are in the range of $20,000-30,000. Tesla has significantly cut prices this time, and in conjunction with the federal government's $7,500 subsidy, the Tesla Model Y has been directly sent to the $40,000 + range, and the Model 3 has been directly sent to the $30,000 + range. This is a negative impact on GM's low-end models. The model will have the most direct impact, which is crazy!</p><p><b>From this perspective, Tesla's price cut today is definitely a positive, and there is no room for doubt.</b></p><p>Tesla, a catfish, finally burned the war into traditional car companies.</p><p><i>Disclaimer: It is not a research report, for informational purposes only, and does not constitute any investment advice.</i></p><p></body></html></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Tiger Sharp Review | Tesla finally burns the \"war\" to traditional car companies</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nTiger Sharp Review | Tesla finally burns the \"war\" to traditional car companies\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/1005414032\">\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">老虎锐评 </p>\n<p class=\"h-time smaller\">2023-01-13 21:51</p>\n</div>\n</a>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><html><head></head><body>The United States has entered the quarterly reporting period today, and there are really a lot to watch. For example, the macro trends hidden in the reports of big banks, Delta Airlines' expectations are not as good as expected (the news says it is an increase in Labor Cost-a trade union problem in the aviation industry), but all this In the face of Tesla's price cuts, it doesn't seem important anymore. Because Tesla's price reduction not only involves the company itself, but also involves the industry (automotive industry), and it is also a mirror of macro trends (consumption). Tesla has been a special case since the day it was born. It never needs to spend money on traffic, but the traffic it gets is fiercer than any other company.</p><p><b>First Point to Watch: Tesla Bears' Determination</b></p><p>Judging from the stock price, Tesla's short sellers have started to feel timid recently. The stock price has rebounded three times between $100 and $110, and failed to break through the psychological defense line of $100 as expected. However, Tesla's short sellers will never surrender easily. This wave of stock price pullback/retracement has made a lot of money, and it will feel affordable to be short squeezed for two days. From a rational point of view, there is not much reason for short positions. In order to break through technical points, fundamentals are not considered. Tesla's price cuts in Europe and the United States can be regarded as giving Tesla's short sellers an excuse to rekindle the war. However, after Tesla's price cuts in China, Tesla's global price cuts should be expected. At this time, using price cuts to short is so confident?</p><p><b>The second point to watch: the change of Tesla's bullish thinking</b></p><p>Tesla bulls (many retail investors) are relatively calm after being stunned by bears in this wave. Compared with the previous scene of rushing to beat up the short sellers, most of the bulls (especially retail investors) who are still left in the market have given up the illusion of a V-shaped rebound in three months, and are more patient. However, if Tesla bulls want to have absolute patience, they must realize that \"Tesla's price cuts are a good thing and will force its peers to die.\" I have analyzed this key point in the Chinese market, but looking at the subsequent changes in the stock price of Electric Sambo (it has not yet reached 30-50%), we know that the understanding of the capital market is very slow. If we want to understand \"Tesla Price cuts are a good thing and will force peers to die.\" It takes time.</p><p><b>The third highlight: How to respond to the new car-making forces in the United States</b></p><p>There are relatively few new car-making forces in the United States. The only ones that still exist are Lucid and Rivian. I don't think these two are even the slightest threat to Tesla, because Lucid is priced at $77K + and Rivian is priced at $70K +. More importantly, how are the gross profits of these two companies? Lucid's revenue in the first 9 months was $350 million, but COGS was $1 billion, and gross profit was negative.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d98618679b1a0647cc5704f184ea02e3\" tg-width=\"1468\" tg-height=\"230\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Rivian, like Lucid, has negative gross profit in the first nine months of 2022.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2a26bef2dacedd213a4d95f4b8f27958\" tg-width=\"1875\" tg-height=\"314\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>The gross profit is negative, which proves that these two companies have not even crossed the most basic life and death line, which is bigger than the problem of Chinese electric vehicle companies. So if Tesla doesn't cut prices, they are chronic deaths, if Tesla cuts prices, they are accelerated deaths.</p><p><b>The fourth highlight: How traditional American car companies respond</b></p><p>Tesla does not have any competitors in the field of new energy vehicles in Europe and the United States. The real competitors are traditional car companies, but it turns out that the two are well in different price ranges. Let's take a look at the gross profit of GM, a traditional American car company (because GM has many products, it is roughly estimated based on the overall gross profit of GM):</p><p>GM's total gross profit in the third quarter was $8.18 billion, and 1.537 million vehicles were sold worldwide. The gross profit of almost one car was $5,300. This is so low because most of GM's models are low-end models Chevrolet and GMC, and the prices are in the range of $20,000-30,000. Tesla has significantly cut prices this time, and in conjunction with the federal government's $7,500 subsidy, the Tesla Model Y has been directly sent to the $40,000 + range, and the Model 3 has been directly sent to the $30,000 + range. This is a negative impact on GM's low-end models. The model will have the most direct impact, which is crazy!</p><p><b>From this perspective, Tesla's price cut today is definitely a positive, and there is no room for doubt.</b></p><p>Tesla, a catfish, finally burned the war into traditional car companies.</p><p><i>Disclaimer: It is not a research report, for informational purposes only, and does not constitute any investment advice.</i></p><p></body></html></p>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/340d3c04436bbba1df239d6d4a7e3fd2","relate_stocks":{"TSLA":"特斯拉"},"source_url":"","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1117925030","content_text":"美国今天进入季报期，看点真的是非常多，比方说大银行的报告里面隐藏的宏观趋势，Delta航空预期不如预期（新闻说是Labor Cost增加——航空业的工会问题），但是这一切在特斯拉降价面前，都显得不重要了。因为特斯拉的降价不仅涉及到公司本身，也涉及到行业（汽车行业），更是宏观趋势（消费）的一面镜子。特斯拉从出生那一天开始就是一个特例，从来不需要花钱做流量，但是得到的流量比任何一家公司都要凶猛。第一个看点：特斯拉空头的决心从股价来看，特斯拉的空头最近心里面开始有所胆怯，股价在$100-$110反弹了3次，并没有如愿攻破$100的心理防线。不过，特斯拉的空头绝对不会轻易投降，这一波股价回撤赚得盆满钵满，被轧空两天也会觉得可以承受。从理性来看，空头是没有太多道理的，为了突破技术点位而不考虑基本面。特斯拉欧美降价算是又给了特斯拉空头重燃战火的借口，但特斯拉中国区降价之后，特斯拉全球降价理应是被预期的东西，这时候利用降价来做空，底气有那么足吗？第二个看点：特斯拉多头思想的转变特斯拉多头（散户很多）在这一波被空头揍晕之后，相对来说冷静了一些。相较于之前闹哄哄一拥而上痛击空头的场景，现在还在市场留下的多头（特别是散户），多半已经放弃了3个月就V型反弹的幻想，耐心更强一些。但是，特斯拉多头要想拥有绝对的耐心，必须意识到“特斯拉降价是好事情会逼死同行”这一点。这一个关键点我曾经在中国市场分析过，但是看电动三宝股价随后的变化（还没有到30-50%的幅度），就知道资本市场的认识转向是很慢的，要想理解“特斯拉降价是好事情会逼死同行”需要时间。第三个看点：美国的造车新势力怎么应对美国的造车新势力相对来说没这么多，目前唯一还存在的是Lucid和Rivian。我不觉得这两家对特斯拉哪怕是有一点点的威胁，因为Lucid的定价是$77K+，Rivian的定价是$70K+。更重要的是，这两家的毛利怎么样？Lucid的前9个月收入是$3.5亿，但是COGS是$10亿，毛利是负数。Rivian和Lucid问题一样，2022年前9个月的毛利也是负数。毛利都是负数，那就证明这两家公司连最基本的生死线都没过，比中国电动车企的问题还大。所以特斯拉不降价，它们是慢性死亡，特斯拉降价，它们是加速死亡。第四个看点：美国的传统车企怎么应对特斯拉在欧美新能源汽车领域是没有任何竞争对手的，真正的竞争对手是传统车企，但原来两者是在不同的价格区间各自安好。我们看一下美国的传统车企GM毛利怎么样（因为GM的产品很多，所以就以总体的GM的毛利粗略估计）：GM在3季度总的毛利是$81.8亿，全球卖了153.7万辆车，差不多一辆车的毛利是$5,300，这么低是因为GM的车型大部分都是低端车型Chevrolet和GMC，售价在$2-3万区间。特斯拉这一次大幅降价，再配合联邦政府的$7,500补贴，把特斯拉Model Y直接送进了$4万+区间，Model 3直接送进了$3万+区间，这对GM的低端车型会造成最直接的冲击，非常疯狂！从这个角度来看，特斯拉今天的降价绝对是利好，没有任何质疑的空间。特斯拉这条鲇鱼，终于把战火烧进了传统车企。免责声明：非研究报告，仅供参考，不构成任何投资建议。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"TSLA":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":3106,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9958192764,"gmtCreate":1673655211858,"gmtModify":1676538870702,"author":{"id":"3575067142498671","authorId":"3575067142498671","name":"JWZ137","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/842968796125e5a418b21a3b4ab603ef","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3575067142498671","idStr":"3575067142498671"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Wow&nbsp;","listText":"Wow&nbsp;","text":"Wow","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9958192764","repostId":"1141553960","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1141553960","kind":"news","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"为用户提供金融资讯、行情、数据，旨在帮助投资者理解世界，做投资决策。","home_visible":1,"media_name":"老虎资讯综合","id":"102","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba"},"pubTimestamp":1673653457,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1141553960?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2023-01-14 07:44","market":"hk","language":"zh","title":"Last night and this morning | Many major Wall Street banks announced their financial reports! The three major indexes all rose more than 2% this week","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1141553960","media":"老虎资讯综合","summary":"通胀放缓预期推高美股，标普指数连续第二周上涨；热门中概股普涨，纳斯达克中国金龙指数本周累涨5.72%；华尔街四大行公布最新成绩单；美联储披露“财报”，2022年净利润骤降至580亿美元；特斯拉全球降","content":"<p><html><head></head><body>Expectations of slowing inflation push U.S. stocks higher, with the S&P rising for a second consecutive week; Popular Chinese concept stocks generally rose, and the Nasdaq China Golden Dragon Index rose 5.72% this week; The four major Wall Street banks released their latest report cards; Fed discloses \"financial report\", net profit plummets to $58 billion in 2022; Tesla's global price reduction promotion reaches up to 20% > > ><b>Overseas Market</b></p><p><b>Close: Expectations of slowing inflation push U.S. stocks higher, S&P gains for second consecutive week</b></p><p>The market is assessing<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/JPM\">JPMorgan Chase</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/WFC\">Wells Fargo</a>as well as<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BAC\">Bank of America</a>Waiting for the financial report of Wall Street Bank. Investors are betting that U.S. inflation will moderate in 2023. The Dow rose 112.64 points, or 0.33%, to 34,302.61 points; The Nasdaq rose 78.05 points, or 0.71%, to 11079.16 points; The S&P 500 rose 15.92 points, or 0.40%, to 3,999.09 points.</p><p>This week, the Dow rose 2%, the Nasdaq rose 4.82%, and the S&P 500 rose 2.67%. All three major stock indexes recorded gains. Both the Nasdaq and S&P 500 had their best weeks since November. The S&P 500 recorded its second consecutive weekly gain.</p><p><b>Popular Chinese concept stocks generally rose, and the Nasdaq China Golden Dragon Index rose 5.72% this week</b></p><p>Popular Chinese concept stocks generally rose, with the Nasdaq China Golden Dragon Index rising 2.81% and a cumulative rise of 5.72% this week. Manbang rose more than 8%,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/IQ\">IQiyi</a>Up more than 6%,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TME\">Tencent Music</a>Up more than 5%,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BILI\">Bilibili</a>Rose more than 4%,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/PDD\">Pinduoduo</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NTES\">NetEase</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BABA\">Alibaba</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/VIPS\">Vipshop</a>, Weibo rose more than 3%,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BIDU\">Baidu</a>Up more than 1%,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/JD\">JD.com</a>Slightly higher.<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/XPEV\">XPeng vehicles</a>Fell more than 1%,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/LI\">Li Auto</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NIO\">Nio</a>Slight decline.</p><p><b>U.S. WTI crude closed 1.9% higher on Friday and was up 8.3% for the week</b></p><p>The price of West Texas Intermediate crude oil (WTI) futures for February delivery on the New York Mercantile Exchange rose $1.47, or 1.9%, to close at $79.86 a barrel, the highest closing price since December 30. WTI crude oil futures rose 8.3% this week.</p><p><b>New York gold futures closed 1.2% higher at $1,900</b></p><p>On Friday, gold futures for February delivery on the New York Mercantile Exchange rose $22.90, or 1.2%, to close at $1,921.70 an ounce. The futures price rose 2.8% this week.</p><p><b>European stocks closed higher across the board, and the German DAX30 index rose 0.19%</b></p><p>Germany's DAX30 index rose 0.19%, France's CAC40 index rose 0.69%,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/VUKE.UK\">UK FTSE 100</a>The index rose 0.68%, the European Stoxx 50 index rose 0.57%, Spain's IBEX35 index rose 0.58%, and Italy's FTSE MIB index rose 0.18%.</p><p><b>International macro</b></p><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/NW/2303257382\" target=\"_blank\"><b>Fed Discloses' Earnings': Net profit plummets to $58 billion in 2022 on rate hike</b></a></p><p>At noon local time on Friday, the Federal Reserve released preliminary data on fiscal year 2022 profits, expenditures and amounts transferred to the Treasury Department on its official website. Affected by the Federal Reserve's own rate hike, the operating data of this institution has also experienced huge fluctuations.</p><p><b>U.S. Treasury Secretary: U.S. government spending will reach legal debt ceiling on the 19th</b></p><p>U.S. Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen sent a letter to Congress saying that U.S. government spending will reach the statutory debt ceiling on the 19th, and that the Treasury Department will begin \"taking certain special measures to prevent the U.S. from defaulting.\"</p><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/NW/2303338393\" target=\"_blank\"><b>The University of Michigan's initial one-year inflation forecast fell to 4% in January, a new low since April 2021</b></a></p><p>In the United States, the initial one-year inflation forecast of the University of Michigan fell to 4% in January, which was significantly lower than expected, a significant drop from December and a new low since April 2021. The fall in inflation expectations boosted consumer confidence significantly better than expected, and also rebounded sharply from December.</p><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/NW/2303338128\" target=\"_blank\"><b>Biden's \"leaked documents\" incident continues to ferment, and U.S. partisanship escalates</b></a></p><p>Biden's private storage of confidential documents continues to ferment. US President Biden confirmed relevant media reports on the 12th, admitting that in addition to storing confidential documents from his tenure as vice president in a former office, there are also confidential documents in his residence. A new round of party struggle between the two parties in the United States also began.</p><p><b>Company News</b></p><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/NW/2303854163\" target=\"_blank\"><b>Tesla is unsalable, global price reduction promotion, up to 20%</b></a></p><p>In the U.S. home market, Tesla has reduced the price of its cheapest model, the Model Y, by 20%, and the price of expensive models has been reduced by up to $21,000. Tesla has also significantly lowered its prices in countries such as Germany, Britain and France. A week ago, the company had taken its second round of price cuts in China since October.</p><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/NW/2303384273\" target=\"_blank\"><b>The sharp drop in stocks and bonds attracted bargain hunters, BlackRock attracted US $146 billion in gold in the fourth quarter</b></a></p><p>The world's largest asset manager said in a statement on Friday that the net inflow of funds into the above products during the period totaled $146 billion, higher than analysts' expectations of $124 billion. Excluding outflows from BlackRock's cash management account, total net inflows were $114 billion.</p><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/NW/2303420385\" target=\"_blank\"><b>Citi's Q4 net profit fell more than 21%, but the decline was better than expected</b></a></p><p>The financial report shows that Citi's Q4 revenue was US $18.01 billion, higher than analysts' expectations of US $17.9 billion; Net profit was $2.5 billion, compared with $3.2 billion in the same period last year, but the decline was not as severe as analysts expected; Earnings per share were $1.16, better than analysts' estimates of $1.14.</p><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/NW/2303538678\" target=\"_blank\"><b>JPMorgan sees lower-than-expected net interest income in 2023 as U.S. economic slowdown drags down key revenues</b></a></p><p>JPMorgan Chase, the largest U.S. bank, said its net interest income this year will be lower than analysts' expectations as the economy shows signs of downturn. The company said net interest income, which is the main source of revenue, will be about $73 billion this year, below expectations of $74.4 billion. The forecast comes after net interest income reached a record $20.2 billion in the fourth quarter.</p><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/NW/1187472513\" target=\"_blank\"><b>Loss of $3 billion in the past three years! Goldman Sachs' newly formed consumer finance arm is losing money</b></a></p><p>According to the documents, from the beginning of 2020 to the end of September, the platform solutions segment suffered a cumulative loss of $3 billion. When the data for the latest quarter is released next week, it is expected that the three-year cumulative loss will be close to $4 billion. Looking at the amount of credit loss reserves, the loss last year will reach $2 billion.</p><p></body></html></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Last night and this morning | Many major Wall Street banks announced their financial reports! The three major indexes all rose more than 2% this week</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nLast night and this morning | Many major Wall Street banks announced their financial reports! The three major indexes all rose more than 2% this week\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/102\">\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">老虎资讯综合 </p>\n<p class=\"h-time smaller\">2023-01-14 07:44</p>\n</div>\n</a>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><html><head></head><body>Expectations of slowing inflation push U.S. stocks higher, with the S&P rising for a second consecutive week; Popular Chinese concept stocks generally rose, and the Nasdaq China Golden Dragon Index rose 5.72% this week; The four major Wall Street banks released their latest report cards; Fed discloses \"financial report\", net profit plummets to $58 billion in 2022; Tesla's global price reduction promotion reaches up to 20% > > ><b>Overseas Market</b></p><p><b>Close: Expectations of slowing inflation push U.S. stocks higher, S&P gains for second consecutive week</b></p><p>The market is assessing<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/JPM\">JPMorgan Chase</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/WFC\">Wells Fargo</a>as well as<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BAC\">Bank of America</a>Waiting for the financial report of Wall Street Bank. Investors are betting that U.S. inflation will moderate in 2023. The Dow rose 112.64 points, or 0.33%, to 34,302.61 points; The Nasdaq rose 78.05 points, or 0.71%, to 11079.16 points; The S&P 500 rose 15.92 points, or 0.40%, to 3,999.09 points.</p><p>This week, the Dow rose 2%, the Nasdaq rose 4.82%, and the S&P 500 rose 2.67%. All three major stock indexes recorded gains. Both the Nasdaq and S&P 500 had their best weeks since November. The S&P 500 recorded its second consecutive weekly gain.</p><p><b>Popular Chinese concept stocks generally rose, and the Nasdaq China Golden Dragon Index rose 5.72% this week</b></p><p>Popular Chinese concept stocks generally rose, with the Nasdaq China Golden Dragon Index rising 2.81% and a cumulative rise of 5.72% this week. Manbang rose more than 8%,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/IQ\">IQiyi</a>Up more than 6%,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TME\">Tencent Music</a>Up more than 5%,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BILI\">Bilibili</a>Rose more than 4%,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/PDD\">Pinduoduo</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NTES\">NetEase</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BABA\">Alibaba</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/VIPS\">Vipshop</a>, Weibo rose more than 3%,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BIDU\">Baidu</a>Up more than 1%,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/JD\">JD.com</a>Slightly higher.<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/XPEV\">XPeng vehicles</a>Fell more than 1%,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/LI\">Li Auto</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NIO\">Nio</a>Slight decline.</p><p><b>U.S. WTI crude closed 1.9% higher on Friday and was up 8.3% for the week</b></p><p>The price of West Texas Intermediate crude oil (WTI) futures for February delivery on the New York Mercantile Exchange rose $1.47, or 1.9%, to close at $79.86 a barrel, the highest closing price since December 30. WTI crude oil futures rose 8.3% this week.</p><p><b>New York gold futures closed 1.2% higher at $1,900</b></p><p>On Friday, gold futures for February delivery on the New York Mercantile Exchange rose $22.90, or 1.2%, to close at $1,921.70 an ounce. The futures price rose 2.8% this week.</p><p><b>European stocks closed higher across the board, and the German DAX30 index rose 0.19%</b></p><p>Germany's DAX30 index rose 0.19%, France's CAC40 index rose 0.69%,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/VUKE.UK\">UK FTSE 100</a>The index rose 0.68%, the European Stoxx 50 index rose 0.57%, Spain's IBEX35 index rose 0.58%, and Italy's FTSE MIB index rose 0.18%.</p><p><b>International macro</b></p><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/NW/2303257382\" target=\"_blank\"><b>Fed Discloses' Earnings': Net profit plummets to $58 billion in 2022 on rate hike</b></a></p><p>At noon local time on Friday, the Federal Reserve released preliminary data on fiscal year 2022 profits, expenditures and amounts transferred to the Treasury Department on its official website. Affected by the Federal Reserve's own rate hike, the operating data of this institution has also experienced huge fluctuations.</p><p><b>U.S. Treasury Secretary: U.S. government spending will reach legal debt ceiling on the 19th</b></p><p>U.S. Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen sent a letter to Congress saying that U.S. government spending will reach the statutory debt ceiling on the 19th, and that the Treasury Department will begin \"taking certain special measures to prevent the U.S. from defaulting.\"</p><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/NW/2303338393\" target=\"_blank\"><b>The University of Michigan's initial one-year inflation forecast fell to 4% in January, a new low since April 2021</b></a></p><p>In the United States, the initial one-year inflation forecast of the University of Michigan fell to 4% in January, which was significantly lower than expected, a significant drop from December and a new low since April 2021. The fall in inflation expectations boosted consumer confidence significantly better than expected, and also rebounded sharply from December.</p><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/NW/2303338128\" target=\"_blank\"><b>Biden's \"leaked documents\" incident continues to ferment, and U.S. partisanship escalates</b></a></p><p>Biden's private storage of confidential documents continues to ferment. US President Biden confirmed relevant media reports on the 12th, admitting that in addition to storing confidential documents from his tenure as vice president in a former office, there are also confidential documents in his residence. A new round of party struggle between the two parties in the United States also began.</p><p><b>Company News</b></p><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/NW/2303854163\" target=\"_blank\"><b>Tesla is unsalable, global price reduction promotion, up to 20%</b></a></p><p>In the U.S. home market, Tesla has reduced the price of its cheapest model, the Model Y, by 20%, and the price of expensive models has been reduced by up to $21,000. Tesla has also significantly lowered its prices in countries such as Germany, Britain and France. A week ago, the company had taken its second round of price cuts in China since October.</p><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/NW/2303384273\" target=\"_blank\"><b>The sharp drop in stocks and bonds attracted bargain hunters, BlackRock attracted US $146 billion in gold in the fourth quarter</b></a></p><p>The world's largest asset manager said in a statement on Friday that the net inflow of funds into the above products during the period totaled $146 billion, higher than analysts' expectations of $124 billion. Excluding outflows from BlackRock's cash management account, total net inflows were $114 billion.</p><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/NW/2303420385\" target=\"_blank\"><b>Citi's Q4 net profit fell more than 21%, but the decline was better than expected</b></a></p><p>The financial report shows that Citi's Q4 revenue was US $18.01 billion, higher than analysts' expectations of US $17.9 billion; Net profit was $2.5 billion, compared with $3.2 billion in the same period last year, but the decline was not as severe as analysts expected; Earnings per share were $1.16, better than analysts' estimates of $1.14.</p><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/NW/2303538678\" target=\"_blank\"><b>JPMorgan sees lower-than-expected net interest income in 2023 as U.S. economic slowdown drags down key revenues</b></a></p><p>JPMorgan Chase, the largest U.S. bank, said its net interest income this year will be lower than analysts' expectations as the economy shows signs of downturn. The company said net interest income, which is the main source of revenue, will be about $73 billion this year, below expectations of $74.4 billion. The forecast comes after net interest income reached a record $20.2 billion in the fourth quarter.</p><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/NW/1187472513\" target=\"_blank\"><b>Loss of $3 billion in the past three years! Goldman Sachs' newly formed consumer finance arm is losing money</b></a></p><p>According to the documents, from the beginning of 2020 to the end of September, the platform solutions segment suffered a cumulative loss of $3 billion. When the data for the latest quarter is released next week, it is expected that the three-year cumulative loss will be close to $4 billion. Looking at the amount of credit loss reserves, the loss last year will reach $2 billion.</p><p></body></html></p>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b23574aac95526c9e5c62ebc8dd25130","relate_stocks":{".SPX":"S&P 500 Index",".DJI":"道琼斯",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite"},"source_url":"","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1141553960","content_text":"通胀放缓预期推高美股，标普指数连续第二周上涨；热门中概股普涨，纳斯达克中国金龙指数本周累涨5.72%；华尔街四大行公布最新成绩单；美联储披露“财报”，2022年净利润骤降至580亿美元；特斯拉全球降价促销，幅度最高达到20%>>>海外市场收盘：通胀放缓预期推高美股，标普指数连续第二周上涨市场正在评估摩根大通、富国银行以及美国银行等华尓街大行的财报。投资者押注2023年美国通胀将会放缓。道指涨112.64点，涨幅为0.33%，报34302.61点；纳指涨78.05点，涨幅为0.71%，报11079.16点；标普500指数涨15.92点，涨幅为0.40%，报3999.09点。本周道指上涨2%，纳指上涨4.82%，标普500指数上涨2.67%，三大股指均录得涨幅。纳指与标普500指数均创11月以来最佳一周表现。标普500指数录得连续第二周上涨。热门中概股普涨，纳斯达克中国金龙指数本周累涨5.72%热门中概股普涨，纳斯达克中国金龙指数涨2.81%，本周累涨5.72%。满帮涨超8%，爱奇艺涨超6%，腾讯音乐涨超5%，哔哩哔哩涨超4%，拼多多、网易、阿里巴巴、唯品会、微博涨超3%，百度涨超1%，京东小幅上涨。小鹏汽车跌超1%，理想汽车、蔚来小幅下跌。美国WTI原油周五收高1.9%，本周上涨8.3%纽约商品交易所2月交割的西德州中质原油（WTI）期货价格上涨1.47美元，涨幅为1.9%，收于每桶79.86美元，创12月30日以来的最高收盘价。本周WTI原油期货累计上涨8.3%。纽约黄金期货收高1.2%，站上1900美元周五，纽约商品交易所2月交割的黄金期货价格上涨22.90美元，涨幅为1.2%，收于每盎司1921.70美元。本周该期货价格上涨2.8%。欧股全线收涨，德国DAX30指数涨0.19%德国DAX30指数涨0.19%，法国CAC40指数涨0.69%，英国富时100指数涨0.68%，欧洲斯托克50指数涨0.57%，西班牙IBEX35指数涨0.58%，意大利富时MIB指数涨0.18%。国际宏观美联储披露“财报”：受加息影响，2022年净利润骤降至580亿美元当地时间周五中午，美联储在官网发布2022财年利润、支出和转移给财政部金额的初步数据。受到美联储自己加息的影响，这家机构的经营数据也出现了巨额波动。美财政部长：美政府支出将于19日达法定债务上限美国财政部长珍妮特·耶伦致信国会表示，美国政府支出将于19日达到法定的债务上限，并表示财政部将开始“采取某些特别措施，以防止美国违约”。美国1月密歇根大学1年通胀预期初值降至4%，创2021年4月来新低美国1月密歇根大学1年通胀预期初值降至4%，大幅不及预期，较12月显著回落，创2021年4月份以来新低。通胀预期的回落，提振消费者信心明显好于预期，也较12月大幅反弹。拜登“泄密文件”事件持续发酵，美国党争升级拜登私存机密文件一事持续发酵，美国总统拜登12日证实媒体相关报道，承认除在一间昔日的办公室存放任副总统时期的涉密文件外，他的住所也存有涉密文件。美国两党的新一轮党争，也由此开始。公司新闻特斯拉滞销，全球降价促销，幅度最高达到20%在美国本土市场，特斯拉将其最便宜的车型Model Y的价格降低了20%，昂贵车型的价格最高下调了21000美元。特斯拉还大幅下调了在德、英和法等国家的售价。一周前，该公司已在中国采取了10月以来第二轮降价行动。股债大跌引来抄底者，贝莱德第四季吸金1460亿美元这家全球最大的资产管理公司周五在一份声明中表示，其间净流入上述产品的资金总计达1460亿美元，高于分析师预期均值1240亿美元。剔除贝莱德现金管理账户的流出后，总净资金流入为1140亿美元。花旗Q4净利润大跌逾21%，但下降幅度好于预期财报显示，花旗Q4营收为180.1亿美元，高于分析师预期的179亿美元；净利润为25亿美元，上年同期为32亿美元，不过下降幅度没有分析师预期的严重；每股收益为1.16美元，好于分析师预期的1.14美元。摩根大通预计2023年净利息收入低于预期，美国经济放缓拖低关键收入美国最大银行摩根大通表示，因经济显示下滑迹象，该行今年的净利息收入将低于分析师预期。公司表示作为主要收入来源的净利息收入今年将约为730亿美元，低于预期的744亿美元。该预测在第四季度净利息收入达创纪录的202亿美元后作出。近三年损失30亿美元！高盛新成立的消费金融部门亏损惊人文件显示，从2020年初到9月底，平台解决方案部门亏损累计达30亿美元。当下周最新一季度的数据发布后，预计三年累计损失将接近40亿美元。从信贷损失准备金数额的来看，去年损失将达到20亿美元。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{".IXIC":0.9,".SPX":0.9,".DJI":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":3288,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9969449656,"gmtCreate":1668507523075,"gmtModify":1676538067791,"author":{"id":"3575067142498671","authorId":"3575067142498671","name":"JWZ137","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/842968796125e5a418b21a3b4ab603ef","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3575067142498671","idStr":"3575067142498671"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Wow&nbsp;","listText":"Wow&nbsp;","text":"Wow","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9969449656","repostId":"667986042","repostType":1,"repost":{"id":667986042,"gmtCreate":1668504792995,"gmtModify":1676538067297,"author":{"id":"9889909672494","authorId":"9889909672494","name":"小安先生","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4849e7d0100445dc3f113e8b1397b003","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"9889909672494","idStr":"9889909672494"},"themes":[],"title":"20221115小安先生說股市","htmlText":"\n \n \n  20221115小安先生說股市\n 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| 元宇宙行業投融資週報NO.17","htmlText":"| 來源：啓霖資本| 週期：2022年11月7日~11月11日“啓霖觀察|元宇宙行業投融資週報”定期發佈，專注元宇宙行業市場投融資動態，彙總一週最新資訊。一級市場投融資動態 01►元宇宙時代數字時尚品牌木甲藝伶完成數百萬人民幣天使輪融資 木甲藝伶是一個元宇宙時代數字時尚品牌，專注於元宇宙時代數字服裝、裝備等數字資產的設計與生產，打造以元宇宙化身（Avatar）爲導向的數字時尚品牌。 02►元宇宙旅遊服務平臺RendezVerse完成750萬英鎊種子輪融資 RendezVerse是一個元宇宙旅遊服務平臺，主要爲酒店和各類型活動提供服務，將實地場景轉化爲數字體驗，方便顧客在線探訪。 03►NFT身份識別服務商CollectID完成350萬美元天使輪融資 CollectID是瑞士的一家NFT身份識別服務商，主要通過將小型NFT標籤放入實體產品中，讓每一個產品獲得唯一身份，然後再將這個唯一身份通過智能合約存儲爲非同質化代幣，致力於爲每個產品創建出一個數字孿生身份。 04►虛擬數字形象研發商心識宇宙完成近億人民幣天使輪融資 心識宇宙是一家虛擬數字形象研發商，主要基於AGI技術和全腦框架研發出擁有思維、意識和人格的虛擬數字人形象，同時與元宇宙相連接，幫助企業以虛擬心智的方式融入用戶的生活，致力於爲用戶提供相關的元宇宙虛擬管理解決方案。聚焦於Human-level AI虛擬人，通過構建“心識即服務Mind as a Service”的商業模式，面向廣大的虛擬和現實場景提供智能服務。 05►英國數字證券交易服務商Archax完成2850萬美元A輪融資 Archax是一家英國數字證券交易服務商，是英國首家FCA註冊加密公司，由來自受監管的金融市場領域的專家創立，並由一個經驗豐富的顧問委員會支持，致力於在新的以區塊鏈爲中心的加密社區與傳統投資空間之間建立了可靠的橋樑。 06►跨平臺人工智能機器","listText":"| 來源：啓霖資本| 週期：2022年11月7日~11月11日“啓霖觀察|元宇宙行業投融資週報”定期發佈，專注元宇宙行業市場投融資動態，彙總一週最新資訊。一級市場投融資動態 01►元宇宙時代數字時尚品牌木甲藝伶完成數百萬人民幣天使輪融資 木甲藝伶是一個元宇宙時代數字時尚品牌，專注於元宇宙時代數字服裝、裝備等數字資產的設計與生產，打造以元宇宙化身（Avatar）爲導向的數字時尚品牌。 02►元宇宙旅遊服務平臺RendezVerse完成750萬英鎊種子輪融資 RendezVerse是一個元宇宙旅遊服務平臺，主要爲酒店和各類型活動提供服務，將實地場景轉化爲數字體驗，方便顧客在線探訪。 03►NFT身份識別服務商CollectID完成350萬美元天使輪融資 CollectID是瑞士的一家NFT身份識別服務商，主要通過將小型NFT標籤放入實體產品中，讓每一個產品獲得唯一身份，然後再將這個唯一身份通過智能合約存儲爲非同質化代幣，致力於爲每個產品創建出一個數字孿生身份。 04►虛擬數字形象研發商心識宇宙完成近億人民幣天使輪融資 心識宇宙是一家虛擬數字形象研發商，主要基於AGI技術和全腦框架研發出擁有思維、意識和人格的虛擬數字人形象，同時與元宇宙相連接，幫助企業以虛擬心智的方式融入用戶的生活，致力於爲用戶提供相關的元宇宙虛擬管理解決方案。聚焦於Human-level AI虛擬人，通過構建“心識即服務Mind as a Service”的商業模式，面向廣大的虛擬和現實場景提供智能服務。 05►英國數字證券交易服務商Archax完成2850萬美元A輪融資 Archax是一家英國數字證券交易服務商，是英國首家FCA註冊加密公司，由來自受監管的金融市場領域的專家創立，並由一個經驗豐富的顧問委員會支持，致力於在新的以區塊鏈爲中心的加密社區與傳統投資空間之間建立了可靠的橋樑。 06►跨平臺人工智能機器","text":"| 來源：啓霖資本| 週期：2022年11月7日~11月11日“啓霖觀察|元宇宙行業投融資週報”定期發佈，專注元宇宙行業市場投融資動態，彙總一週最新資訊。一級市場投融資動態 01►元宇宙時代數字時尚品牌木甲藝伶完成數百萬人民幣天使輪融資 木甲藝伶是一個元宇宙時代數字時尚品牌，專注於元宇宙時代數字服裝、裝備等數字資產的設計與生產，打造以元宇宙化身（Avatar）爲導向的數字時尚品牌。 02►元宇宙旅遊服務平臺RendezVerse完成750萬英鎊種子輪融資 RendezVerse是一個元宇宙旅遊服務平臺，主要爲酒店和各類型活動提供服務，將實地場景轉化爲數字體驗，方便顧客在線探訪。 03►NFT身份識別服務商CollectID完成350萬美元天使輪融資 CollectID是瑞士的一家NFT身份識別服務商，主要通過將小型NFT標籤放入實體產品中，讓每一個產品獲得唯一身份，然後再將這個唯一身份通過智能合約存儲爲非同質化代幣，致力於爲每個產品創建出一個數字孿生身份。 04►虛擬數字形象研發商心識宇宙完成近億人民幣天使輪融資 心識宇宙是一家虛擬數字形象研發商，主要基於AGI技術和全腦框架研發出擁有思維、意識和人格的虛擬數字人形象，同時與元宇宙相連接，幫助企業以虛擬心智的方式融入用戶的生活，致力於爲用戶提供相關的元宇宙虛擬管理解決方案。聚焦於Human-level AI虛擬人，通過構建“心識即服務Mind as a Service”的商業模式，面向廣大的虛擬和現實場景提供智能服務。 05►英國數字證券交易服務商Archax完成2850萬美元A輪融資 Archax是一家英國數字證券交易服務商，是英國首家FCA註冊加密公司，由來自受監管的金融市場領域的專家創立，並由一個經驗豐富的顧問委員會支持，致力於在新的以區塊鏈爲中心的加密社區與傳統投資空間之間建立了可靠的橋樑。 06►跨平臺人工智能機器","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/15f1f236e193d41f8537387d144b09f4","width":"632","height":"154"},{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1f408763a8d4cdf015dbda913881aee6","width":"632","height":"79"},{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4df792ff66ba3056988ffa26c279d9dd","width":"632","height":"77"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":2,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/667988574","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":0,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":9,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":3361,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9984485754,"gmtCreate":1667708485379,"gmtModify":1676537954780,"author":{"id":"3575067142498671","authorId":"3575067142498671","name":"JWZ137","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/842968796125e5a418b21a3b4ab603ef","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3575067142498671","idStr":"3575067142498671"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Wow&nbsp;","listText":"Wow&nbsp;","text":"Wow","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9984485754","repostId":"2280574557","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2399,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9986800506,"gmtCreate":1666918381706,"gmtModify":1676537830155,"author":{"id":"3575067142498671","authorId":"3575067142498671","name":"JWZ137","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/842968796125e5a418b21a3b4ab603ef","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3575067142498671","idStr":"3575067142498671"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Wow&nbsp;","listText":"Wow&nbsp;","text":"Wow","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9986800506","repostId":"1151274086","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":3058,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9988785280,"gmtCreate":1666833538541,"gmtModify":1676537813069,"author":{"id":"3575067142498671","authorId":"3575067142498671","name":"JWZ137","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/842968796125e5a418b21a3b4ab603ef","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3575067142498671","idStr":"3575067142498671"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Wow&nbsp;","listText":"Wow&nbsp;","text":"Wow","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9988785280","repostId":"1144831578","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1144831578","kind":"news","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"为用户提供金融资讯、行情、数据，旨在帮助投资者理解世界，做投资决策。","home_visible":1,"media_name":"老虎资讯综合","id":"102","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba"},"pubTimestamp":1666832050,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1144831578?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2022-10-27 08:54","market":"hk","language":"zh","title":"New Stock Offering | Xintai Medical will start IPO today, the admission fee is HK $31,766.97","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1144831578","media":"老虎资讯综合","summary":"10月27日，心泰医疗发布公告，公司拟全球发售2245.5万股股份，其中中国香港发售股份224.6万股，国际发售股份2020.9万股，另有15%超额配股权；2022年10月27日至11月1日招股，预期","content":"<p><html><head></head><body>October 27th,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/02291\">Xintai Medical</a>Announced that the company plans to sell 22.455 million shares globally, including 2.246 million shares offered in Hong Kong, China, 20.209 million shares offered internationally, and a 15% over-allotment option; The IPO will be held from October 27 to November 1, 2022, and the expected pricing date is November 1; The offer price will be HK $29.15-31.45 per offer share, with a lot of 1,000 shares, and an admission fee of approximately HK $31,766.97;<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/601995\">CICC</a>Is the Sole Sponsor; The Shares are expected to be listed on the Main Board of the Stock Exchange on 8 November 2022. [<a href=\"https://www.itigerup.com/mi/ipo/index/hk/listing\" target=\"_blank\">Subscription entrance</a>】</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b1a3cd91da2d74dace6bccea240f135f\" tg-width=\"879\" tg-height=\"673\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><b>Subscription ladder:</b></p><p>There are 1,000 shares per lot, and the admission fee is HK $31,766.97.</p><p>The threshold for Group B is 200,000 shares, and the funds required for subscription are approximately HK $6,353,393.77.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/df0df5c6e67c9ef8c4f6356d650873b2\" tg-width=\"897\" tg-height=\"504\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Founded in 1994, the Group has been committed to the research and development, production and commercialization of interventional medical devices mainly for structural heart disease, with a track record spanning more than 20 years. According to the Frost & Sullivan Report, in terms of market share of China's congenital heart disease occluder product market in 2021, the Group is a leading interventional medical device supplier for congenital heart disease (the main application area of structural heart disease) in China, with an extensive portfolio of listed and pipeline products. According to the same source, the Group is the largest manufacturer of congenital heart disease occluder products and related surgical accessory products in China, with a market share of 38.0% in terms of revenue recognized from sales in China in 2021. The Group's patent foramen ovale occluder products and left atrial appendage occluder products targeting cardiogenic stroke and related symptoms, another major application area of structural heart disease, are one of the few commercial products that can capture significant market opportunities. According to the Frost & Sullivan Report, the Group has also developed the most comprehensive portfolio of heart valve product candidates in China to tap the huge market potential for the treatment of valvular diseases, which is the largest application area of structural heart disease and is currently widely used in China. Undeveloped.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/059d5c68524d13e8f588bfd3bd5fff93\" tg-width=\"823\" tg-height=\"451\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>As of the Latest Practicable Date, the Group had a comprehensive product portfolio, with 20 occluder products on the market, 9 occluder products under development and 21 major heart valve products under development. All products of the Group are independently developed. As of the Latest Practicable Date, the Group's business focused on occluder products, and the Group's heart valve product candidates were in different pre-release stages, and there were no heart valve products on the market. As of the same date, the Group also accumulated a wealth of intellectual property rights, including 232 registered patents and 51 pending patent applications in China, as well as 14 patent applications in the United States and the European Union.</p><p>In terms of finance, from 2019 to 2021, the company's total revenue will be RMB 116 million, RMB 148 million, and RMB 223 million, respectively, with a compound annual growth rate of 38.25%; The gross profit margins for the same period were 88.3%, 89.8%, and 88.8% respectively; The net profit margins during the same period were 44.6%, 46.4%, and 26.4% respectively.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4307b1c2006fb2227001025c3b5bf0fc\" tg-width=\"703\" tg-height=\"802\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>The Group has entered into a cornerstone investment agreement, pursuant to which the cornerstone investors have agreed to subscribe for a total of US $24.8 million (approximately HK $194.6 million) of offer shares at the offer price. Assuming an Offer Price of HK $30.30 (i.e. the mid-point of the indicative Offer Price range set out in this prospectus), the total number of Offer Shares to be subscribed for by cornerstone investors will be 6.423 million shares. Cornerstone investors include Harvest,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/600848\">Shanghai Lingang</a>Shanghai Lingang Economic Development Group Investment Management Co., Ltd., a wholly-owned subsidiary, and<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/600998\">Jiuzhoutong</a>Jointown International Group Co., Ltd., a wholly-owned subsidiary.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7ab89ec1c57a6aaba6b77e6802ca6d76\" tg-width=\"907\" tg-height=\"607\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Assuming that the over-allotment option is not exercised and assuming the offer price is HK $30.30 per H share, the Group estimates that the net proceeds from the global offering will be approximately HK $592.1 million. The Group intends to use approximately 50.7% of the net proceeds from the global offering to fund research and development activities in the next five years; Approximately 24.3% will be used for sales and marketing activities in the next five years; Approximately 5.0% will be used to increase production capacity and strengthen manufacturing capacity in the next five years; Approximately 10.0% will be used to fund potential strategic investments and acquisitions in the next five years to supplement and expand the group's product portfolio and technologies; And about 10.0% will be used for working capital and general corporate purposes.</p><p></body></html></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>New Stock Offering | Xintai Medical will start IPO today, the admission fee is HK $31,766.97</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nNew Stock Offering | Xintai Medical will start IPO today, the admission fee is HK $31,766.97\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/102\">\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">老虎资讯综合 </p>\n<p class=\"h-time smaller\">2022-10-27 08:54</p>\n</div>\n</a>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><html><head></head><body>October 27th,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/02291\">Xintai Medical</a>Announced that the company plans to sell 22.455 million shares globally, including 2.246 million shares offered in Hong Kong, China, 20.209 million shares offered internationally, and a 15% over-allotment option; The IPO will be held from October 27 to November 1, 2022, and the expected pricing date is November 1; The offer price will be HK $29.15-31.45 per offer share, with a lot of 1,000 shares, and an admission fee of approximately HK $31,766.97;<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/601995\">CICC</a>Is the Sole Sponsor; The Shares are expected to be listed on the Main Board of the Stock Exchange on 8 November 2022. [<a href=\"https://www.itigerup.com/mi/ipo/index/hk/listing\" target=\"_blank\">Subscription entrance</a>】</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b1a3cd91da2d74dace6bccea240f135f\" tg-width=\"879\" tg-height=\"673\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><b>Subscription ladder:</b></p><p>There are 1,000 shares per lot, and the admission fee is HK $31,766.97.</p><p>The threshold for Group B is 200,000 shares, and the funds required for subscription are approximately HK $6,353,393.77.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/df0df5c6e67c9ef8c4f6356d650873b2\" tg-width=\"897\" tg-height=\"504\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Founded in 1994, the Group has been committed to the research and development, production and commercialization of interventional medical devices mainly for structural heart disease, with a track record spanning more than 20 years. According to the Frost & Sullivan Report, in terms of market share of China's congenital heart disease occluder product market in 2021, the Group is a leading interventional medical device supplier for congenital heart disease (the main application area of structural heart disease) in China, with an extensive portfolio of listed and pipeline products. According to the same source, the Group is the largest manufacturer of congenital heart disease occluder products and related surgical accessory products in China, with a market share of 38.0% in terms of revenue recognized from sales in China in 2021. The Group's patent foramen ovale occluder products and left atrial appendage occluder products targeting cardiogenic stroke and related symptoms, another major application area of structural heart disease, are one of the few commercial products that can capture significant market opportunities. According to the Frost & Sullivan Report, the Group has also developed the most comprehensive portfolio of heart valve product candidates in China to tap the huge market potential for the treatment of valvular diseases, which is the largest application area of structural heart disease and is currently widely used in China. Undeveloped.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/059d5c68524d13e8f588bfd3bd5fff93\" tg-width=\"823\" tg-height=\"451\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>As of the Latest Practicable Date, the Group had a comprehensive product portfolio, with 20 occluder products on the market, 9 occluder products under development and 21 major heart valve products under development. All products of the Group are independently developed. As of the Latest Practicable Date, the Group's business focused on occluder products, and the Group's heart valve product candidates were in different pre-release stages, and there were no heart valve products on the market. As of the same date, the Group also accumulated a wealth of intellectual property rights, including 232 registered patents and 51 pending patent applications in China, as well as 14 patent applications in the United States and the European Union.</p><p>In terms of finance, from 2019 to 2021, the company's total revenue will be RMB 116 million, RMB 148 million, and RMB 223 million, respectively, with a compound annual growth rate of 38.25%; The gross profit margins for the same period were 88.3%, 89.8%, and 88.8% respectively; The net profit margins during the same period were 44.6%, 46.4%, and 26.4% respectively.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4307b1c2006fb2227001025c3b5bf0fc\" tg-width=\"703\" tg-height=\"802\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>The Group has entered into a cornerstone investment agreement, pursuant to which the cornerstone investors have agreed to subscribe for a total of US $24.8 million (approximately HK $194.6 million) of offer shares at the offer price. Assuming an Offer Price of HK $30.30 (i.e. the mid-point of the indicative Offer Price range set out in this prospectus), the total number of Offer Shares to be subscribed for by cornerstone investors will be 6.423 million shares. Cornerstone investors include Harvest,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/600848\">Shanghai Lingang</a>Shanghai Lingang Economic Development Group Investment Management Co., Ltd., a wholly-owned subsidiary, and<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/600998\">Jiuzhoutong</a>Jointown International Group Co., Ltd., a wholly-owned subsidiary.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7ab89ec1c57a6aaba6b77e6802ca6d76\" tg-width=\"907\" tg-height=\"607\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Assuming that the over-allotment option is not exercised and assuming the offer price is HK $30.30 per H share, the Group estimates that the net proceeds from the global offering will be approximately HK $592.1 million. The Group intends to use approximately 50.7% of the net proceeds from the global offering to fund research and development activities in the next five years; Approximately 24.3% will be used for sales and marketing activities in the next five years; Approximately 5.0% will be used to increase production capacity and strengthen manufacturing capacity in the next five years; Approximately 10.0% will be used to fund potential strategic investments and acquisitions in the next five years to supplement and expand the group's product portfolio and technologies; And about 10.0% will be used for working capital and general corporate purposes.</p><p></body></html></p>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6b69e234a63c2c0a69ccede7b0faaa18","relate_stocks":{"02291":"心泰医疗"},"source_url":"","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1144831578","content_text":"10月27日，心泰医疗发布公告，公司拟全球发售2245.5万股股份，其中中国香港发售股份224.6万股，国际发售股份2020.9万股，另有15%超额配股权；2022年10月27日至11月1日招股，预期定价日为11月1日；发售价将为每股发售股份29.15-31.45港元，每手买卖单位1000股，入场费约31766.97港元；中金公司为独家保荐人；预期股份将于2022年11月8日于联交所主板挂牌上市。【申购入口】申购阶梯：每手1000股，入场费31766.97港元。乙组门槛为20万股，申购所需资金约6353393.77港元。集团于1994年成立，一直致力于主要针对结构性心脏病的介入医疗器械的研发、生产及商业化，拥有跨越逾20年的往绩记录。根据弗若斯特沙利文报告，按2021年中国先天性心脏病封堵器产品市场的市场份额计，集团是一家中国领先的先天性心脏病(结构性心脏病的主要应用领域)介入医疗器械供应商，拥有广泛的上市及管线产品组合。根据同一资料来源，集团是中国最大的先天性心脏病封堵器产品及相关手术配套产品制造商，按2021年于中国销售确认的收入计，集团的市场份额为38.0%。集团的卵圆孔未闭封堵器产品及左心耳封堵器产品针对心源性卒中及相关症状(结构性心脏病的另一个主要应用领域)，是屈指可数的商业化产品，可把握重大市场机遇。根据弗若斯特沙利文报告，集团亦在中国发展了最全面的心脏瓣膜在研产品组合，以挖掘治疗瓣膜疾病的巨大市场潜力，这是结构性心脏病的最大应用领域，目前在中国普遍未被开发。截至最后实际可行日期，集团拥有全面的产品组合，20款已上市封堵器产品、9款封堵器在研产品以及21款主要心脏瓣膜在研产品。集团所有的产品均为自主研发。截至最后实际可行日期，集团的业务专注于封堵器产品，并且集团的心脏瓣膜在研产品处于不同预发布阶段，并无已上市的心脏瓣膜产品。截至同日，集团亦积累了丰富的知识产权，包括在中国的232项注册专利及51项待决专利申请，以及在美国和欧盟的14项申请中专利。财务方面，2019-2021年，公司的总收入分别为人民币1.16亿元、1.48亿元、2.23亿元，复合年增长率为38.25%；同期毛利率分别为88.3%、89.8%、88.8%；同期净利率分别为44.6%、46.4%、26.4%。集团已订立基石投资协议，据此，基石投资者已同意按发售价认购合共2480万美元(约1.946亿港元)发售股份。假设发售价为30.30港元(即本招股章程所载指示性发售价范围的中位数)，则基石投资者将予认购的发售股份总数将为642.3万股。基石投资者包括Harvest、上海临港全资附属公司上海临港经济发展集团投资管理有限公司、及九州通全资附属公司九州通国际集团有限公司。假设超额配售权未获行使，并假设发售价为每股H股30.30港元，集团估计全球发售所得款项净额将约为5.921亿港元。集团拟将全球发售所得款项净额约50.7%用于为未来五年内的研发活动提供资金；约24.3%将用于未来五年内的销售及营销活动；约5.0%将用于在未来五年内提升产能及加强制造能力；约10.0%将用于为未来五年内潜在的战略投资及收购提供资金，以补充和扩大集团的产品组合及技术；及约10.0%将用于营运资金及一般公司用途。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"02291":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":3523,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9981859619,"gmtCreate":1666481388431,"gmtModify":1676537759061,"author":{"id":"3575067142498671","authorId":"3575067142498671","name":"JWZ137","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/842968796125e5a418b21a3b4ab603ef","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3575067142498671","idStr":"3575067142498671"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Wow&nbsp;","listText":"Wow&nbsp;","text":"Wow","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":2,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9981859619","repostId":"1158082143","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":4137,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9981859893,"gmtCreate":1666481372912,"gmtModify":1676537759061,"author":{"id":"3575067142498671","authorId":"3575067142498671","name":"JWZ137","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/842968796125e5a418b21a3b4ab603ef","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3575067142498671","idStr":"3575067142498671"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Wow&nbsp;","listText":"Wow&nbsp;","text":"Wow","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9981859893","repostId":"1130690374","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1130690374","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1666672819,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1130690374?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2022-10-25 12:40","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"CICC: U.S. debt 2022 = oil 2020?","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1130690374","media":"中金点睛","summary":"美债利率大幅下行是大概率事件。","content":"<p><html><head></head><body><b>CICC believes that the current U.S. bond market may be close to the edge of pricing \"failure\", which is similar to the oil situation in April 2020. The market has priced the current macro environment to the extreme, and the possibility of future situation reversal is high., a sharp decline in US Treasury yields is a high probability event.</b>Text/CICC Asset Research: Li Zhao, Qi Wei, Yang Xiaoqing, Wang Hanfeng</p><p><b>U.S. bond market liquidity is close to levels seen in March 2020 when the market \"failed\"</b></p><p>Recently, the ten-year US Treasury yields once exceeded 4.3% in intraday trading, attracting market attention. We believe that interest rate pricing has obviously deviated from the equilibrium price, which is affected by the following factors:</p><p><b>1) The liquidity of the bond market is too poor.</b>At present, there are still US $2 trillion in overnight reverse repurchases in the Federal Reserve account, and the market is generally not short of US dollar liquidity. However, this year's macro policies and market volatility are too great. At the same time, the increase in U.S. bond stocks has made it difficult for market makers to trade, and there are serious liquidity problems in the U.S. bond market.</p><p>Bond pricing errors can be used to measure liquidity: summarize the pricing errors of the duration pricing models of all U.S. bonds in the market. The greater the error, the more serious the pricing distortion in the market and the worse the market liquidity.</p><p>Pricing error data shows that the current liquidity of the U.S. bond market is close to the level when the market \"failed\" under the influence of the epidemic in March 2020. At that time, the Federal Reserve was forced to intervene and start \"unlimited QE\" to restore the normal operation of the bond market.</p><p>At present, the U.S. bond market may be close to the edge of pricing \"failure\". Even if investors believe that interest rates have significantly deviated from reasonable prices, they dare not increase their positions against the market trend.</p><p>Chart: U.S. bond market liquidity is close to the level when the market \"failed\" in March 2020</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/01e1bbae6ca2f1267f2a9d51f869a9b8\" tg-width=\"816\" tg-height=\"493\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/>Source: Bloomberg, CICC Research</p><p>Chart: There are still $2 trillion in overnight reverse repurchases on the Fed's account<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/17fc7ab848330686a233a34f627c3fba\" tg-width=\"841\" tg-height=\"491\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/>Source: Haver Analytics, CICC Research</p><p>Chart: The recent volatility in the U.S. bond market is too high</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3fe1703f36e6de9e8c690ecbc1be3fc2\" tg-width=\"829\" tg-height=\"498\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/>Source: Bloomberg, CICC Research</p><p>Chart: The futures market expects the end of the rate hike to be close to 5%<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8fd72d6c195ffadcf706bac9f98da2e6\" tg-width=\"772\" tg-height=\"527\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/>Source: Bloomberg, CICC Research</p><p><b>2) The black swan event of UK policy became the last straw that crushed global bond markets</b>, the UK bond market collapsed directly, the pension fund experienced a repayment crisis, and the global market linkage spread to U.S. debt. Restricted by low liquidity, although the risks in the UK have been greatly alleviated at present, the US Treasury yields has not clearly reflected the changes in fundamentals.</p><p><b>3) U.S. CPI inflation exceeded expectations in August-September</b>, the Federal Reserve maintained a hawkish stance, and the market expected the end of the rate hike to be close to 5% at one point, forming an \"inflation panic\".</p><p><b>The U.S. bond market in 2022 is similar to the oil market in 2020</b></p><p>Among the major global asset classes, the last asset to clearly deviate from the fundamental price may be oil. Affected by the epidemic at the beginning of 2020, oil demand was greatly reduced, and oil prices fell off a cliff. Since oil is a resource product with certain industrial value, and the negative impact of the epidemic will eventually pass, as long as the decline is large enough, it should provide a definite rise opportunity.</p><p>In March 2020, market pricing has interpreted the predicament at that time to the extreme, and there is no suspense that the future situation will reverse, so investors choose to \"buy the bottom\" at low oil prices. However, unexpected, there was a temporary shortage of oil storage capacity, and the delivery mechanism caused oil prices to completely deviate from fundamentals. WTI oil futures prices fell to-$37 per barrel in April, causing losses to investors.</p><p>In hindsight, investors who chose to buy oil at the bottom in March-April 2020 were completely correct about the fundamentals. In the next two years, the oil price will rise rapidly from negative to US $130, making it the most eye-catching asset among the world's major asset classes. If you abandon fundamental analysis after suffering losses in April, you will miss this once-in-a-decade oil supercycle.</p><p>Chart: WTI crude oil prices once fell to-US $37/barrel in 2020<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/daba71b7434bf85b738a81b3dc6446a8\" tg-width=\"795\" tg-height=\"499\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/>Source: Bloomberg, CICC Research</p><p>Chart: In the past two years, oil has been the most eye-catching asset among the world's major assets (denominated in US dollars, full return rate)<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8a1dee1eb7c5dfd6961744e8398da207\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"405\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/>Source: Wind, Bloomberg, CICC Research</p><p>The U.S. debt situation in October 2022 is similar to the oil situation in April 2020. The market has priced the current macro environment to the extreme, and the possibility of a future situation reversal is high.</p><p>At present, inflation remains high and the Federal Reserve is aggressively tightening, which should push up interest rates. But even assuming that the Fed's rate hike stops at 4.8%, the 10-year US Treasury yields equilibrium price is only 3.2%, and the market pricing is already close to 100bp higher than the equilibrium price.</p><p>Looking forward, it is a foregone conclusion that the U.S. economy will enter a recession, and the economic slowdown will bring about a significant improvement in inflation. We believe that a sharp decline in US Treasury yields is also a high probability event. However, if you buy U.S. debt at the bottom in October, you will also suffer more losses.</p><p>In the past two months, our forecasts for the trend of the U.S. bond market have been quite deviated, but referring to the experience of 2020,<b>We believe that it is not appropriate to follow the trend too much and ignore the signals of fundamental analysis.</b></p><p>Chart: Assuming that the Fed's rate hike endpoint is 4.8%, the equilibrium price of the ten-year US Treasury yields at the end of 2022 is around 3.2%<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/833929fa8e4b3e0f1b1737570137f9a5\" tg-width=\"842\" tg-height=\"526\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/>Source: Bloomberg, CICC Research</p><p><b>US Treasury yields predicts, what we see right, what we see wrong, and what we learn</b></p><p>In December 2021, we predicted that the US Treasury yields will rise sharply in 2022, in April 2022, we predicted that the interest rate will fluctuate in both directions, and in June, we predicted that the interest rate will fall sharply, and then turn neutral. So far, our forecast of the market situation has basically fulfilled.</p><p>However, since September, we have not predicted that the US Treasury yields will rise sharply from 3% to 4.3%, mainly because we have not fully considered the impact of \"nonlinear\" and \"small probability\" events:</p><p>Chart: We accurately judged the upward trend of US Treasury yields starting at the end of 2021 and the downward trend after June 2022, but did not predict that US Treasury yields would surge above 4%<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3e6c25f6fe73d99757f5ed5f75b075a7\" tg-width=\"833\" tg-height=\"540\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/>Source: Bloomberg, CICC Research</p><p>First of all, the sharp rise in US Treasury yields is ultimately the result of CPI inflation growth that exceeds expectations. Our CPI forecast model is based on the statistical laws of economic data. The implicit assumption is that the leading and lagging relationship of the data can be linearly extrapolated according to historical laws, but the recent inflation increase has exceeded the model forecast.</p><p>Secondly, we didn't predict the UK policy surprise and pension crisis. We assumed beforehand that the British government's decision-making would conform to rationality and common sense, but this assumption was challenged, and the black swan incident of British policy finally washed away the US, European and Treasury Bond markets.</p><p>Drawing on the experience of the past two months, we believe that the \"nonlinearity\" of the post-epidemic world needs more attention. Our fundamental analysis can only derive the average path and end price of asset prices, but nonlinear events may cause asset prices to fluctuate. With the increase, it can completely deviate from the equilibrium price significantly, and it will take longer to converge to the equilibrium price.</p><p><b>Therefore, while we maintain our forecast of a 10-year US Treasury yields downward to 3% unchanged, we extend the time for our view to be fulfilled to 2022Q4-2023Q1.</b></p><p><b>Predicting asset prices requires attention to a new nonlinear event-financial market risk</b></p><p>Before October, most nonlinear events pushed up US Treasury yields, but now there may be a kind of nonlinear event-financial market risk-that has become a force to depress US Treasury yields. The Fed can choose to sacrifice economic growth to control inflation, but it may not be able to accept financial market disorder and financial crisis.</p><p>This rate hike cycle is faster than most rate hike cycles in history, but the complexity of the current financial market is far greater than that of decades ago, and some institutions and markets may have difficulty adapting to the sudden high interest rate environment.</p><p>Take the British crisis as an example. After the collapse of the British debt, the leverage ratio of pension LDI investment was exposed, and the Bank of England was forced to choose a \"temporary QE\" situation to stabilize the market. We believe that the markets of other countries may hide similar problems, and the policy response after the financial market shock may also be close to the choice of the Bank of England.</p><p>At present, in addition to the problems exposed in the operation of the U.S. bond market, we believe that the risk accumulation of high-yield corporate bonds in developed markets and sovereign bonds in emerging markets cannot be ignored. In fact, the Wall Street Journal recently reported that Fed officials have begun to pay attention to the risk of \"excessive tightening\" and may slow down rate hike at the December Fed meeting.</p><p>Although it is not the baseline scenario, we believe that the possibility of the Fed's early adjustment of rate hike and shrinking balance sheet policies in 2023 needs to be considered. US Treasury yields may continue to fluctuate widely in 2023, but the final decline may exceed expectations.</p><p>Chart: This rate hike cycle is faster than most rate hike cycles in history<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/069d60f2e3758a0a52d29b94446fa19e\" tg-width=\"834\" tg-height=\"598\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/>Source: Bloomberg, CICC Research</p><p>Chart: UK long-term interest rates plummet after UK announced bond purchase plan<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5e93df97be61997498ed3e69b299ae65\" tg-width=\"836\" tg-height=\"551\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/>Source: Bloomberg, CICC Research</p><p></body></html></p>","source":"zjdj","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>CICC: U.S. debt 2022 = oil 2020?</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nCICC: U.S. debt 2022 = oil 2020?\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">中金点睛</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2022-10-25 12:40</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><html><head></head><body><b>CICC believes that the current U.S. bond market may be close to the edge of pricing \"failure\", which is similar to the oil situation in April 2020. The market has priced the current macro environment to the extreme, and the possibility of future situation reversal is high., a sharp decline in US Treasury yields is a high probability event.</b>Text/CICC Asset Research: Li Zhao, Qi Wei, Yang Xiaoqing, Wang Hanfeng</p><p><b>U.S. bond market liquidity is close to levels seen in March 2020 when the market \"failed\"</b></p><p>Recently, the ten-year US Treasury yields once exceeded 4.3% in intraday trading, attracting market attention. We believe that interest rate pricing has obviously deviated from the equilibrium price, which is affected by the following factors:</p><p><b>1) The liquidity of the bond market is too poor.</b>At present, there are still US $2 trillion in overnight reverse repurchases in the Federal Reserve account, and the market is generally not short of US dollar liquidity. However, this year's macro policies and market volatility are too great. At the same time, the increase in U.S. bond stocks has made it difficult for market makers to trade, and there are serious liquidity problems in the U.S. bond market.</p><p>Bond pricing errors can be used to measure liquidity: summarize the pricing errors of the duration pricing models of all U.S. bonds in the market. The greater the error, the more serious the pricing distortion in the market and the worse the market liquidity.</p><p>Pricing error data shows that the current liquidity of the U.S. bond market is close to the level when the market \"failed\" under the influence of the epidemic in March 2020. At that time, the Federal Reserve was forced to intervene and start \"unlimited QE\" to restore the normal operation of the bond market.</p><p>At present, the U.S. bond market may be close to the edge of pricing \"failure\". Even if investors believe that interest rates have significantly deviated from reasonable prices, they dare not increase their positions against the market trend.</p><p>Chart: U.S. bond market liquidity is close to the level when the market \"failed\" in March 2020</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/01e1bbae6ca2f1267f2a9d51f869a9b8\" tg-width=\"816\" tg-height=\"493\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/>Source: Bloomberg, CICC Research</p><p>Chart: There are still $2 trillion in overnight reverse repurchases on the Fed's account<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/17fc7ab848330686a233a34f627c3fba\" tg-width=\"841\" tg-height=\"491\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/>Source: Haver Analytics, CICC Research</p><p>Chart: The recent volatility in the U.S. bond market is too high</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3fe1703f36e6de9e8c690ecbc1be3fc2\" tg-width=\"829\" tg-height=\"498\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/>Source: Bloomberg, CICC Research</p><p>Chart: The futures market expects the end of the rate hike to be close to 5%<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8fd72d6c195ffadcf706bac9f98da2e6\" tg-width=\"772\" tg-height=\"527\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/>Source: Bloomberg, CICC Research</p><p><b>2) The black swan event of UK policy became the last straw that crushed global bond markets</b>, the UK bond market collapsed directly, the pension fund experienced a repayment crisis, and the global market linkage spread to U.S. debt. Restricted by low liquidity, although the risks in the UK have been greatly alleviated at present, the US Treasury yields has not clearly reflected the changes in fundamentals.</p><p><b>3) U.S. CPI inflation exceeded expectations in August-September</b>, the Federal Reserve maintained a hawkish stance, and the market expected the end of the rate hike to be close to 5% at one point, forming an \"inflation panic\".</p><p><b>The U.S. bond market in 2022 is similar to the oil market in 2020</b></p><p>Among the major global asset classes, the last asset to clearly deviate from the fundamental price may be oil. Affected by the epidemic at the beginning of 2020, oil demand was greatly reduced, and oil prices fell off a cliff. Since oil is a resource product with certain industrial value, and the negative impact of the epidemic will eventually pass, as long as the decline is large enough, it should provide a definite rise opportunity.</p><p>In March 2020, market pricing has interpreted the predicament at that time to the extreme, and there is no suspense that the future situation will reverse, so investors choose to \"buy the bottom\" at low oil prices. However, unexpected, there was a temporary shortage of oil storage capacity, and the delivery mechanism caused oil prices to completely deviate from fundamentals. WTI oil futures prices fell to-$37 per barrel in April, causing losses to investors.</p><p>In hindsight, investors who chose to buy oil at the bottom in March-April 2020 were completely correct about the fundamentals. In the next two years, the oil price will rise rapidly from negative to US $130, making it the most eye-catching asset among the world's major asset classes. If you abandon fundamental analysis after suffering losses in April, you will miss this once-in-a-decade oil supercycle.</p><p>Chart: WTI crude oil prices once fell to-US $37/barrel in 2020<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/daba71b7434bf85b738a81b3dc6446a8\" tg-width=\"795\" tg-height=\"499\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/>Source: Bloomberg, CICC Research</p><p>Chart: In the past two years, oil has been the most eye-catching asset among the world's major assets (denominated in US dollars, full return rate)<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8a1dee1eb7c5dfd6961744e8398da207\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"405\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/>Source: Wind, Bloomberg, CICC Research</p><p>The U.S. debt situation in October 2022 is similar to the oil situation in April 2020. The market has priced the current macro environment to the extreme, and the possibility of a future situation reversal is high.</p><p>At present, inflation remains high and the Federal Reserve is aggressively tightening, which should push up interest rates. But even assuming that the Fed's rate hike stops at 4.8%, the 10-year US Treasury yields equilibrium price is only 3.2%, and the market pricing is already close to 100bp higher than the equilibrium price.</p><p>Looking forward, it is a foregone conclusion that the U.S. economy will enter a recession, and the economic slowdown will bring about a significant improvement in inflation. We believe that a sharp decline in US Treasury yields is also a high probability event. However, if you buy U.S. debt at the bottom in October, you will also suffer more losses.</p><p>In the past two months, our forecasts for the trend of the U.S. bond market have been quite deviated, but referring to the experience of 2020,<b>We believe that it is not appropriate to follow the trend too much and ignore the signals of fundamental analysis.</b></p><p>Chart: Assuming that the Fed's rate hike endpoint is 4.8%, the equilibrium price of the ten-year US Treasury yields at the end of 2022 is around 3.2%<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/833929fa8e4b3e0f1b1737570137f9a5\" tg-width=\"842\" tg-height=\"526\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/>Source: Bloomberg, CICC Research</p><p><b>US Treasury yields predicts, what we see right, what we see wrong, and what we learn</b></p><p>In December 2021, we predicted that the US Treasury yields will rise sharply in 2022, in April 2022, we predicted that the interest rate will fluctuate in both directions, and in June, we predicted that the interest rate will fall sharply, and then turn neutral. So far, our forecast of the market situation has basically fulfilled.</p><p>However, since September, we have not predicted that the US Treasury yields will rise sharply from 3% to 4.3%, mainly because we have not fully considered the impact of \"nonlinear\" and \"small probability\" events:</p><p>Chart: We accurately judged the upward trend of US Treasury yields starting at the end of 2021 and the downward trend after June 2022, but did not predict that US Treasury yields would surge above 4%<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3e6c25f6fe73d99757f5ed5f75b075a7\" tg-width=\"833\" tg-height=\"540\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/>Source: Bloomberg, CICC Research</p><p>First of all, the sharp rise in US Treasury yields is ultimately the result of CPI inflation growth that exceeds expectations. Our CPI forecast model is based on the statistical laws of economic data. The implicit assumption is that the leading and lagging relationship of the data can be linearly extrapolated according to historical laws, but the recent inflation increase has exceeded the model forecast.</p><p>Secondly, we didn't predict the UK policy surprise and pension crisis. We assumed beforehand that the British government's decision-making would conform to rationality and common sense, but this assumption was challenged, and the black swan incident of British policy finally washed away the US, European and Treasury Bond markets.</p><p>Drawing on the experience of the past two months, we believe that the \"nonlinearity\" of the post-epidemic world needs more attention. Our fundamental analysis can only derive the average path and end price of asset prices, but nonlinear events may cause asset prices to fluctuate. With the increase, it can completely deviate from the equilibrium price significantly, and it will take longer to converge to the equilibrium price.</p><p><b>Therefore, while we maintain our forecast of a 10-year US Treasury yields downward to 3% unchanged, we extend the time for our view to be fulfilled to 2022Q4-2023Q1.</b></p><p><b>Predicting asset prices requires attention to a new nonlinear event-financial market risk</b></p><p>Before October, most nonlinear events pushed up US Treasury yields, but now there may be a kind of nonlinear event-financial market risk-that has become a force to depress US Treasury yields. The Fed can choose to sacrifice economic growth to control inflation, but it may not be able to accept financial market disorder and financial crisis.</p><p>This rate hike cycle is faster than most rate hike cycles in history, but the complexity of the current financial market is far greater than that of decades ago, and some institutions and markets may have difficulty adapting to the sudden high interest rate environment.</p><p>Take the British crisis as an example. After the collapse of the British debt, the leverage ratio of pension LDI investment was exposed, and the Bank of England was forced to choose a \"temporary QE\" situation to stabilize the market. We believe that the markets of other countries may hide similar problems, and the policy response after the financial market shock may also be close to the choice of the Bank of England.</p><p>At present, in addition to the problems exposed in the operation of the U.S. bond market, we believe that the risk accumulation of high-yield corporate bonds in developed markets and sovereign bonds in emerging markets cannot be ignored. In fact, the Wall Street Journal recently reported that Fed officials have begun to pay attention to the risk of \"excessive tightening\" and may slow down rate hike at the December Fed meeting.</p><p>Although it is not the baseline scenario, we believe that the possibility of the Fed's early adjustment of rate hike and shrinking balance sheet policies in 2023 needs to be considered. US Treasury yields may continue to fluctuate widely in 2023, but the final decline may exceed expectations.</p><p>Chart: This rate hike cycle is faster than most rate hike cycles in history<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/069d60f2e3758a0a52d29b94446fa19e\" tg-width=\"834\" tg-height=\"598\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/>Source: Bloomberg, CICC Research</p><p>Chart: UK long-term interest rates plummet after UK announced bond purchase plan<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5e93df97be61997498ed3e69b299ae65\" tg-width=\"836\" tg-height=\"551\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/>Source: Bloomberg, CICC Research</p><p></body></html></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> source：<a href=\"https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s?__biz=MzI3MDMzMjg0MA==&mid=2247601045&idx=3&sn=b8dfe84c5f8f0719e88737f5eb960664&chksm=ead1ad52dda62444336398ae14e05f0caed6de36bdc41968a79a4939945a6c3ac160344636d8&mpshare=1&scene=23&srcid=102559g8boEyr8XpemFd7AB4&sharer_sharetime=1666657418894&sharer_shareid=00a55b671777cf0e253d4693000ead51#rd\">中金点睛</a></p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5eb1600a275cdb440167b676a1a207e1","relate_stocks":{".DJI":"道琼斯"},"source_url":"https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s?__biz=MzI3MDMzMjg0MA==&mid=2247601045&idx=3&sn=b8dfe84c5f8f0719e88737f5eb960664&chksm=ead1ad52dda62444336398ae14e05f0caed6de36bdc41968a79a4939945a6c3ac160344636d8&mpshare=1&scene=23&srcid=102559g8boEyr8XpemFd7AB4&sharer_sharetime=1666657418894&sharer_shareid=00a55b671777cf0e253d4693000ead51#rd","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1130690374","content_text":"中金认为，目前美债市场可能已经接近定价“失灵”的边缘，这与2020年4月的石油形势类似，市场已经把当前宏观环境的定价打到极致，而未来形势逆转的可能性较高，美债利率大幅下行是大概率事件。文/中金大类资产研究：李昭 齐伟 杨晓卿 王汉锋美债市场流动性已接近2020年3月市场“失灵”时的水平近日十年期美债利率盘中一度越过4.3%，引发市场关注。我们认为利率定价已经明显脱离均衡价格，受到以下几个因素影响：1）债券市场流动性过差。目前美联储账户上仍有2万亿美元隔夜逆回购，市场总体不缺美元流动性。但是今年宏观政策与市场波动性太大，同时美债存量增加导致做市商交易困难，美债市场存在严重流动性问题。可以用债券定价误差来衡量流动性：把市场上所有美债的久期定价模型的定价误差汇总，这个误差越大，说明市场上的定价扭曲越严重，市场流动性越差。定价误差数据显示目前美债市场流动性已经接近2020年3月在疫情影响下市场“失灵”时的水平，当时美联储被迫介入开始“无限量QE”，恢复债券市场正常运行。目前美债市场可能已经接近定价“失灵”的边缘，即使投资者认为利率明显偏离合理价格，也不敢逆市加仓交易。图表：美债市场流动性已接近2020年3月市场“失灵”时的水平资料来源：Bloomberg，中金公司研究部图表：美联储账户上仍有2万亿美元规模隔夜逆回购资料来源：Haver Analytics，中金公司研究部图表：近期美债市场波动性过高资料来源：Bloomberg，中金公司研究部图表：期货市场预期加息终点接近5%资料来源：Bloomberg，中金公司研究部2）英国政策黑天鹅事件成为压垮全球债券市场的最后一根稻草，英国债市直接崩盘，养老金出现偿付危机，全球市场联动波及美债。受流动性偏低制约，虽然目前英国风险已经大幅缓解，美债利率并没有对基本面变化有明显反映。3）美国8-9月份CPI通胀超出预期，美联储维持鹰派表态，市场预期加息的终点一度接近5%，形成“通胀恐慌”。2022年的美债行情与2020年的石油行情有相似之处在全球大类资产中，上一个明显脱离基本面价格的资产可能是石油。2020年初受疫情冲击，石油需求大幅削减，油价断崖式下跌。由于石油是具有确定工业价值的资源品，并且疫情的负面冲击终将过去，只要下跌幅度足够大，理应提供确定性上涨机会。2020年3月，市场定价已把当时的困境演绎到极致，而未来形势反转又无悬念，因此投资者选择在油价低位“抄底”。但意外发生，储油能力出现暂时性短缺，交割机制导致油价彻底脱离基本面，WTI石油期货价格4月份跌至-37美元每桶，给投资者造成损失。事后来看，选择在2020年3-4月抄底石油的投资者对基本面的判断完全正确，未来2年油价从负数快速上涨到130美元，是全球大类资产中表现最亮眼的资产。如果在4月份承受损失后放弃基本面分析，会错过这波十年一遇的石油超级周期。图表：WTI原油价格2020年一度跌至-37美元/桶资料来源：Bloomberg，中金公司研究部图表：过去两年内，石油是全球大类资产中表现最亮眼的资产（美元计价，全收益回报率）资料来源：Wind，Bloomberg，中金公司研究部2022年10月的美债形势与2020年4月的石油形势类似，市场已经把当前宏观环境的定价打到极致，而未来形势逆转的可能性较高。当前看，通胀居高不下，联储激进紧缩，理应推高利率。但即使假设联储加息至4.8%停止，十年期美债利率均衡价格也仅为3.2%，市场定价已经高于均衡价格接近100bp。往前看，美国经济进入衰退已成定局，经济放缓将带来通胀明显改善，我们认为美债利率大幅下行也是大概率事件。但是若10月份抄底美债，也会承受较多损失。过去2个月我们对美债市场走势的预测出现较大偏差，但参考2020年的经验，我们认为不宜过度追随趋势而忽视基本面分析的信号。图表：假设联储加息终点在4.8%，十年期美债利率2022年底的均衡价格在3.2%左右资料来源：Bloomberg，中金公司研究部美债利率预测，我们看对了什么，看错了什么，学到了什么我们于2021年12月预测2022年美债利率大幅上行，2022年4月预测利率双向波动，6月预测利率大幅回落，随后转为中性，至此我们对于市场形势的预测基本兑现。但9月份以来，我们没有预测到美债利率从3%骤升至4.3%，主要由于没有充分考虑“非线性”与“小概率”事件的影响：图表：我们准确判断出美债利率2021年底开始的上行趋势以及2022年6月后的回落趋势，但没有预测到美债利率冲高到4%以上资料来源：Bloomberg，中金公司研究部首先，美债利率大幅上行归根结底是CPI通胀增速超预期的结果。我们对CPI的预测模型建立在经济数据的统计规律之上，隐含假设是数据的领先滞后关系可以根据历史规律线性外推，但近期通胀上涨幅度超出模型预测。其次，我们没有预测到英国政策意外与养老金危机。我们事前假设英国政府决策会符合理性与常识，但这一假设受到挑战，英国政策黑天鹅事件最终冲垮了美欧国债市场。吸取过去两个月的经验，我们认为疫情后世界的“非线性”需要更多关注，我们的基本面分析只能得出资产价格的平均路径与终点价格，但非线性事件可能使资产价格波动增大，完全可以大幅脱离均衡价格，并且需要更长的时间收敛至均衡价格。因此，虽然我们维持十年期美债利率下行至3%的预测不变，但将观点兑现的时间延长至2022Q4-2023Q1。预测资产价格需要关注新的非线性事件——金融市场风险10月份以前，大部分的非线性事件都推高美债利率，现在可能有一类非线性事件——金融市场风险——成为压低美债利率的力量。美联储可以选择牺牲经济增长控制通胀，但是可能无法接受金融市场紊乱与金融危机。本次加息周期速度快于历史上大部分加息周期，但当前金融市场的复杂程度远远超过几十年以前，一些机构与市场可能难以适应突如其来的高利率环境。以英国危机为例，在英债崩盘后，暴露了养老金LDI投资的杠杆率问题，英国央行也被迫选择以“暂时性QE”的形势稳定市场。我们认为其他国家的市场可能隐藏类似的问题，金融市场震荡后政策应对也可能接近英国央行的选择。目前除美债市场运行已经暴露问题以外，我们认为发达市场高收益公司债与新兴市场主权债的风险积累也不容忽视。事实上，近期华尔街日报报道联储官员已经开始关注“紧缩过度”风险，并有可能在12月美联储会议上放慢加息速度。尽管并非基准情景，但我们认为需要考虑美联储2023年提前调整加息与缩表政策的可能性。美债利率2023年可能继续宽幅震荡，但最终下行幅度可能超出预期。图表：本次加息周期速度快于历史上大部分加息周期资料来源：Bloomberg，中金公司研究部图表：英国宣布购债计划后英国长端利率急跌资料来源：Bloomberg，中金公司研究部","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"ZNmain":0.9,".DJI":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":3540,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9983703456,"gmtCreate":1666314403875,"gmtModify":1676537739076,"author":{"id":"3575067142498671","authorId":"3575067142498671","name":"JWZ137","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/842968796125e5a418b21a3b4ab603ef","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3575067142498671","idStr":"3575067142498671"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Wow&nbsp;","listText":"Wow&nbsp;","text":"Wow","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9983703456","repostId":"1158040229","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1158040229","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1666243273,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1158040229?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2022-10-20 13:21","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"Rate hike to more than 5%? In the coming weeks, Fed officials may release intensively","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1158040229","media":"华尔街见闻","summary":"瑞银预计，联邦基金利率的目标区间将在2022年底达到4.5%至4.75%。","content":"<p><html><head></head><body><b>UBS expects Federal Funds rate's target range to reach 4.5% to 4.75% by the end of 2022 and 5.0% to 5.25% by the end of 2023.</b>UBS expects that more and more FOMC members will advocate raising the Federal Funds rate to more than 5%.</p><p>UBS pointed out in a research report on October 18 that it expects the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) of the Federal Reserve to rate hike 75 basis points at its November meeting, rate hike 75 basis points in December, and rate hike 50 basis points in February 2023.<b>Federal Funds rate's target range will reach 4.5% to 4.75% by the end of 2022 and 5.0% to 5.25% by the end of 2023.</b></p><p>UBS also raised its forecast for the magnitude of rate hike in December and February, and delayed its forecast for the timing of its interest rate cut to prevent real interest rates from rising as inflation falls.</p><p>Data released by the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics showed that the U.S. core CPI rose 6.6% year-on-year in September, higher than expected and hitting a new high since August 1982. UBS believes this increases the likelihood that the Fed will continue its rate hike by 75 basis points next month. But some FOMC members may be inclined to slow the pace of rate hike, and the debate is expected to last until the end of the year. Therefore, UBS believes that the FOMC may only have a rate hike of 50 basis points at its December meeting.</p><p>However, UBS forecasts core PCE inflation in the United States to be 4.6% in the fourth quarter of this year, 0.1 percentage points higher than the median FOMC forecast in September, and most FOMC members are likely to continue to revise their expectations upwards and put more inflation factors into account,<b>That means a larger rate hike, and higher interest rate peaks.</b></p><p>UBS believes that,<b>In the coming weeks, more FOMC members will be heard discussing raising Federal Funds rate's target range to 5% or higher.</b>If policy rules consistent with the September FOMC Economic Forecast Summary (SEP) are adopted and the September SEP forecast is replaced with the December SEP inflation forecast, it means that Federal Funds rate's target range will exceed 5% in early 2023.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/28a9ee7c15c9a0184abe7a5fcaca347b\" tg-width=\"589\" tg-height=\"476\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>More rate hike is expected ahead, and the risk of a hard landing is rising, UBS concludes.</p><p>Last week, Barclays also pointed out in a report that it expects the Fed's rate hike to be more aggressive.<b>May raise peak interest rates above the 5% level in 2023</b>。 Specifically, Barclays expects the Fed's rate hike in November and December to be 75 basis points each, and the rate hike in February next year to be 50 basis points.<b>Peak rates will reach 5.00-5.25% in February</b>, higher than previous expectations of 4.50-4.75%.</p><p>The forecasts of these Wall Street investment banks also coincide with the recent stance of Federal Reserve officials. Last week, Kansas Fed President Esther George, a hawkish Fed official who has voting rights at the Monetary Policy Committee's FOMC meeting this year, said that given stubbornly high inflation,<b>The Fed may have to raise the peak interest rate and hold interest rates at that level longer.</b></p><p>Compared with this, she was more wary of the speed and aggressiveness of her actions. It is expected that the Federal Reserve will have to continue its rate hike, but too quick a rate hike may disrupt financial markets.</p><p></body></html></p>","source":"live_wallstreetcn","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Rate hike to more than 5%? In the coming weeks, Fed officials may release intensively</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nRate hike to more than 5%? In the coming weeks, Fed officials may release intensively\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">华尔街见闻</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2022-10-20 13:21</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><html><head></head><body><b>UBS expects Federal Funds rate's target range to reach 4.5% to 4.75% by the end of 2022 and 5.0% to 5.25% by the end of 2023.</b>UBS expects that more and more FOMC members will advocate raising the Federal Funds rate to more than 5%.</p><p>UBS pointed out in a research report on October 18 that it expects the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) of the Federal Reserve to rate hike 75 basis points at its November meeting, rate hike 75 basis points in December, and rate hike 50 basis points in February 2023.<b>Federal Funds rate's target range will reach 4.5% to 4.75% by the end of 2022 and 5.0% to 5.25% by the end of 2023.</b></p><p>UBS also raised its forecast for the magnitude of rate hike in December and February, and delayed its forecast for the timing of its interest rate cut to prevent real interest rates from rising as inflation falls.</p><p>Data released by the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics showed that the U.S. core CPI rose 6.6% year-on-year in September, higher than expected and hitting a new high since August 1982. UBS believes this increases the likelihood that the Fed will continue its rate hike by 75 basis points next month. But some FOMC members may be inclined to slow the pace of rate hike, and the debate is expected to last until the end of the year. Therefore, UBS believes that the FOMC may only have a rate hike of 50 basis points at its December meeting.</p><p>However, UBS forecasts core PCE inflation in the United States to be 4.6% in the fourth quarter of this year, 0.1 percentage points higher than the median FOMC forecast in September, and most FOMC members are likely to continue to revise their expectations upwards and put more inflation factors into account,<b>That means a larger rate hike, and higher interest rate peaks.</b></p><p>UBS believes that,<b>In the coming weeks, more FOMC members will be heard discussing raising Federal Funds rate's target range to 5% or higher.</b>If policy rules consistent with the September FOMC Economic Forecast Summary (SEP) are adopted and the September SEP forecast is replaced with the December SEP inflation forecast, it means that Federal Funds rate's target range will exceed 5% in early 2023.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/28a9ee7c15c9a0184abe7a5fcaca347b\" tg-width=\"589\" tg-height=\"476\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>More rate hike is expected ahead, and the risk of a hard landing is rising, UBS concludes.</p><p>Last week, Barclays also pointed out in a report that it expects the Fed's rate hike to be more aggressive.<b>May raise peak interest rates above the 5% level in 2023</b>。 Specifically, Barclays expects the Fed's rate hike in November and December to be 75 basis points each, and the rate hike in February next year to be 50 basis points.<b>Peak rates will reach 5.00-5.25% in February</b>, higher than previous expectations of 4.50-4.75%.</p><p>The forecasts of these Wall Street investment banks also coincide with the recent stance of Federal Reserve officials. Last week, Kansas Fed President Esther George, a hawkish Fed official who has voting rights at the Monetary Policy Committee's FOMC meeting this year, said that given stubbornly high inflation,<b>The Fed may have to raise the peak interest rate and hold interest rates at that level longer.</b></p><p>Compared with this, she was more wary of the speed and aggressiveness of her actions. It is expected that the Federal Reserve will have to continue its rate hike, but too quick a rate hike may disrupt financial markets.</p><p></body></html></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> source：<a href=\"https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3672813\">华尔街见闻</a></p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f09c44f289c2f0d40610768fe6661fab","relate_stocks":{".DJI":"道琼斯"},"source_url":"https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3672813","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/cc96873d3d23ee6ac10685520df9c100","article_id":"1158040229","content_text":"瑞银预计，联邦基金利率的目标区间将在2022年底达到4.5%至4.75%，2023年底达到5.0%至5.25%。瑞银预计，越来越多的FOMC成员将主张把联邦基金利率提高至5%以上。瑞银在10月18日的研报中指出，预计美联储联邦公开市场委员会（FOMC）将在11月的会议上加息75个基点，在12月加息75个基点，在2023年2月加息50个基点。联邦基金利率的目标区间将在2022年底达到4.5%至4.75%，2023年底达到5.0%至5.25%。瑞银还另外上调了对12月和2月的加息幅度预期，并推迟了对其降息时间的预期，防止实际利率随着通胀的下降而上升。美国劳工统计局公布的数据显示，美国9月核心CPI同比上涨6.6%，高于预期，并再创1982年8月以来的新高。瑞银认为，这增加了美联储下个月继续加息75个基点的可能性。但一些FOMC成员可能倾向于放缓加息步伐，预计这场争论将持续到年底。因此，瑞银认为FOMC在12月的会议上有可能只加息50个基点。然而，瑞银预测美国今年第四季度的核心PCE通胀为4.6%，比FOMC在9月的预测中值高0.1个百分点，并且大多数FOMC成员可能会继续上修他们的预期，并将更多通胀因素纳入考虑，这意味着更大的加息幅度，以及更高的利率峰值。瑞银认为，在未来几周会听到更多FOMC成员讨论将联邦基金利率的目标区间提高到5%或更高。如果采用符合9月FOMC经济预测摘要（SEP）的政策规则，并用对12月的SEP通胀预测替换掉对9月SEP的预测，就意味着2023年初联邦基金利率的目标区间将超过5%。瑞银总结道，预计未来还会有更多的加息，而硬着陆的风险正在上升。上周，巴克莱也在报告中指出，预计美联储加息步伐将更加激进，可能在2023年将利率峰值提高到5%水平以上。具体来看，巴克莱预计美联储11和12月各加息75个基点，明年2月份加息50个基点，利率峰值将在2月份达到5.00-5.25%，高于之前的预期4.50-4.75%。这些华尔街投行的预测也与近期美联储官员的立场不谋而合。上周，鹰派倾向的美联储官员、今年拥有货币政策委员会FOMC会议投票权的堪萨斯联储主席乔治（Esther George）表示，鉴于通胀顽固居高不下，美联储可能必须提高利率峰值，并将那个水平的利率保持得更久。相比这点，她更警惕的是行动的速度以及激进的程度。联储料将必须持续加息，但加息过快可能扰乱金融市场。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{".DJI":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1934,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9980024818,"gmtCreate":1665619547934,"gmtModify":1676537636151,"author":{"id":"3575067142498671","authorId":"3575067142498671","name":"JWZ137","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/842968796125e5a418b21a3b4ab603ef","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3575067142498671","idStr":"3575067142498671"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Wow&nbsp;","listText":"Wow&nbsp;","text":"Wow","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9980024818","repostId":"2275665547","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1104,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9917567353,"gmtCreate":1665542973872,"gmtModify":1676537624467,"author":{"id":"3575067142498671","authorId":"3575067142498671","name":"JWZ137","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/842968796125e5a418b21a3b4ab603ef","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3575067142498671","idStr":"3575067142498671"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Wow&nbsp;","listText":"Wow&nbsp;","text":"Wow","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9917567353","repostId":"1174706614","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1139,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9915852643,"gmtCreate":1665014643483,"gmtModify":1676537543461,"author":{"id":"3575067142498671","authorId":"3575067142498671","name":"JWZ137","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/842968796125e5a418b21a3b4ab603ef","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3575067142498671","idStr":"3575067142498671"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Wow&nbsp;","listText":"Wow&nbsp;","text":"Wow","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9915852643","repostId":"2273971138","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"2273971138","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1664952671,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/2273971138?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2022-10-05 14:51","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"U.S. stocks are ushering in a strong start to the fourth quarter. Is it really going to turn from bear to bull?","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2273971138","media":"第一财经","summary":"投资者对美联储政策拐点的预期能否成为现实？　　经历了艰难的三季度之后，美股在10月迎来强劲反弹。道指两个交易日上涨近1600点，标普500指数上涨近6%。经济数据表现不佳的“坏消息”开始被视为美联储政策可能转向的“好消息”，市场风险偏好迅速回暖。　　统计显示，四季度往往是美股熊市结束的起点，这一次历史是否会再次重演？　　美国9月ISM制造业指数降至28个月低位50.9，进一步逼近荣枯线，工厂订单月率继续回落。","content":"<p><div>Can investors' expectations of an inflection point in Fed policy become a reality? After a difficult third quarter, U.S. stocks rebounded strongly in October. The Dow rose nearly 1,600 points in two trading days, and the S&P 500 rose nearly 6%. The \"bad news\" of poor economic data began to be regarded as \"good news\" of a possible shift in Fed policy, and market risk appetite quickly picked up. Statistics show that the fourth quarter is often the starting point for the end of the bear market in the US stock market. Will history repeat itself again this time? Markets are betting that the Federal Reserve will \"let go.\" The US ISM manufacturing index fell to a 28-month low of 50.9 in September, closing further in on the boom-bust line...</p><p><a href=\"https://www.yicai.com/news/101554087.html\">Web link</a></div></p>","source":"dyvj","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>U.S. stocks are ushering in a strong start to the fourth quarter. Is it really going to turn from bear to bull?</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nU.S. stocks are ushering in a strong start to the fourth quarter. Is it really going to turn from bear to bull?\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">第一财经</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2022-10-05 14:51</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><div>Can investors' expectations of an inflection point in Fed policy become a reality? After a difficult third quarter, U.S. stocks rebounded strongly in October. The Dow rose nearly 1,600 points in two trading days, and the S&P 500 rose nearly 6%. The \"bad news\" of poor economic data began to be regarded as \"good news\" of a possible shift in Fed policy, and market risk appetite quickly picked up. Statistics show that the fourth quarter is often the starting point for the end of the bear market in the US stock market. Will history repeat itself again this time? Markets are betting that the Federal Reserve will \"let go.\" The US ISM manufacturing index fell to a 28-month low of 50.9 in September, closing further in on the boom-bust line...</p><p><a href=\"https://www.yicai.com/news/101554087.html\">Web link</a></div></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> source：<a href=\"https://www.yicai.com/news/101554087.html\">第一财经</a></p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/627bc890436e46f74a0fe8143398a725","relate_stocks":{"161125":"标普500","513500":"标普500ETF博时","SH":"做空标普500-Proshares","BK4550":"红杉资本持仓","QQQ":"纳指100ETF","SDOW":"三倍做空道指30ETF-ProShares","DXD":"两倍做空道琼30指数ETF-ProShares","DJX":"1/100道琼斯","UDOW":"三倍做多道指30ETF-ProShares",".DJI":"道琼斯","SDS":"两倍做空标普500 ETF-ProShares","QLD":"2倍做多纳斯达克100指数ETF-ProShares","BK4559":"巴菲特持仓","BK4581":"高盛持仓","DOG":"道指ETF-ProShares做空","OEF":"标普100指数ETF-iShares","SQQQ":"纳指三倍做空ETF","OEX":"标普100","UPRO":"三倍做多标普500ETF-ProShares",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index","BK4534":"瑞士信贷持仓","DDM":"2倍做多道指ETF-ProShares","SPXU":"三倍做空标普500ETF-ProShares","QID":"两倍做空纳斯达克指数ETF-ProShares","SSO":"2倍做多标普500ETF-ProShares","IVV":"标普500ETF-iShares",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite","TQQQ":"纳指三倍做多ETF","PSQ":"做空纳斯达克100指数ETF-ProShares","BK4504":"桥水持仓","SPY":"标普500ETF"},"source_url":"https://www.yicai.com/news/101554087.html","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2273971138","content_text":"投资者对美联储政策拐点的预期能否成为现实？经历了艰难的三季度之后，美股在10月迎来强劲反弹。道指两个交易日上涨近1600点，标普500指数上涨近6%。经济数据表现不佳的“坏消息”开始被视为美联储政策可能转向的“好消息”，市场风险偏好迅速回暖。统计显示，四季度往往是美股熊市结束的起点，这一次历史是否会再次重演？市场押注美联储将“松口”美国9月ISM制造业指数降至28个月低位50.9，进一步逼近荣枯线，工厂订单月率继续回落。与此同时，美国上月的职位空缺从之前的1120万降至1010万，这被认为随着经济放缓工作机会正在变少，炙手可热的劳动力市场可能面临降温。疲软的经济前景令外界开始削减美联储大幅加息的押注，受此影响，各期限美债收益率全线回落，基准10年期国债收益率降至3.583%，上周该项收益率一度突破4%，美元指数一度逼近110关口，较上周创下的20年高位回落下跌超3.5%。与此同时，周二澳大利亚联储意外仅加息25基点，以及上周英国央行入市干预，令政策放松预期持续发酵。德意志银行策略师吉姆·里德（Jim Reid）表示，虽然股市肯定已达到超卖状态，但“对央行可能很快转向更温和立场的猜测越来越多”也有助于提振市场情绪。根据芝商所CME利率观察工具FedWatch，预计年内剩余两次会议加息125基点的概率为60%，高于上周的47%，同时本轮加息周期终点有望在明年3月出现，利率终值预期回落至4.43%。RBC Capital Markets首席美国经济学家波切利（Tom Porcelli）表示：“投资者关注的是，在市场面临诸多压力的情况下，美联储是否会坚持所有这些关于掩盖通胀的言论。毫无疑问，美联储希望控制通胀。”他分析道：“更大的问题是，在通货膨胀恢复到他们满意的水平之前，其他因素是否会影响他们的计划？”历史数据也显示，10月开始的四季度往往是美股“转折点”。Stock Trader’s Almanac 的数据显示，二战后美股熊市中有超过70%在10月结束。此外，2022年也是美国中期选举年，今年选举将于11月8日举行。统计发现，中期选举年的10月表现尤为出色。同时，中期选举年的第四季度与大选年前第一和第二季度，是市场连续三个季度表现最好的季度。这期间，道琼斯工业指数平均涨幅为19.3%，标准普尔500指数涨幅为20.0%（自1949年以来），纳斯达克指数为29.3%（自1971年以来）。财富管理公司Stifel首席股票策略师班尼斯特（Barry Bannister）预计，标准普尔500指数正在触底，市场在今年第四季度至2023年初之间将出现积极的催化剂。反弹持续性有待观察虽然股指上涨带来了乐观情绪，但也有不少机构认为，消极的经济基本面可能压倒季节性趋势。Ameriprise Financial首席市场策略师萨林迪恩（Anthony Saglindene）表示，在历史上的某些时期，10月份可能会引发华尔街的恐慌，包括1987年和1929年的两场动荡。 “我认为，如果股市经历了非常困难的一年，季节性因素都应该予以折中，因为还有其他一些宏观因素在影响市场，你需要更清楚地了解那些推低股市的宏观因素。”他说。富国银行也发出警告称，随着对美国潜在衰退的警告不断增加，有关美联储转向可能性的传言再次出现，这表明投资者有可能“再次低估美联储在寻求解决通胀问题时的决心”。摩根士丹利首席股票策略师威尔逊（Mike Wilson）本周继续预警美股跌势将持续到年底，部分原因是全球主要经济体的美元供应减少，即使短期出现反弹，接下来股票、债券、大宗商品和货币的波动性可能会继续上升。威尔逊表示，问题在于，随着利率持续上升，美联储不断缩减其资产负债表，它可能会在世界某些地方，甚至在美国引发危机。这是因为更高的利率使公司和家庭借贷成本更高，从而拖累美国经济，而美元走强则使新兴经济体更难偿还以美元计价的债务。威尔逊认为，流动性问题已经开始浮出水面。“美元对风险市场的走向非常重要，这就是为什么我们如此密切地跟踪M2的增长， 美国、欧元区和日本等主要经济体的M2在2021达到峰值，此后下降了4万亿美元。跟踪这些经济体的货币供应变化率很重要，因为这往往与股市走势密切相关。截至目前，美联储并未释放有关货币政策力度调整的信号，包括美联储主席鲍威尔、副主席布雷纳德在内的多位官员均在近期讲话中表示，不会冒险提前降息，因为担心通胀可能变得更加根深蒂固。威尔逊表示，无论如何，在美联储最终转向之前，股市可能会走低，不过对这一政策变化的预期可能足以引发股市大幅但短暂的反弹。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"161125":0.6,"513500":0.6,"UDOW":0.6,"MNQmain":0.6,"NQmain":0.6,"TQQQ":0.6,"QQQ":0.6,"SDS":0.6,"SSO":0.6,"DXD":0.6,"SQQQ":0.6,"DJX":0.6,"DOG":0.6,"ESmain":0.6,"QLD":0.6,"OEX":0.6,"SPXU":0.6,"DDM":0.6,".DJI":0.9,"IVV":0.6,"SH":0.6,"PSQ":0.6,"SPY":0.9,"QID":0.6,".SPX":0.6,"OEF":0.6,"SDOW":0.6,"UPRO":0.6,".IXIC":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1221,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9916767222,"gmtCreate":1664682293866,"gmtModify":1676537493890,"author":{"id":"3575067142498671","authorId":"3575067142498671","name":"JWZ137","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/842968796125e5a418b21a3b4ab603ef","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3575067142498671","idStr":"3575067142498671"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Wow&nbsp;","listText":"Wow&nbsp;","text":"Wow","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9916767222","repostId":"1118365121","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1118365121","kind":"news","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"为用户提供金融资讯、行情、数据，旨在帮助投资者理解世界，做投资决策。","home_visible":1,"media_name":"老虎资讯综合","id":"102","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba"},"pubTimestamp":1664578250,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1118365121?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2022-10-01 06:50","market":"fut","language":"zh","title":"Last night and this morning | U.S. stocks ended dismal in September! Three major indexes fell for three consecutive quarters","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1118365121","media":"老虎资讯综合","summary":"市场颓势仍在延续！美股三大指数周五均跌超1%；美国WTI原油收跌2.1%，三季度重挫25%；黄金期货价格收高0.2%，三季度下跌7.5%；耐克、嘉年华邮轮绩后股价重挫；美国众议院通过短期支出法案，避免","content":"<p><html><head></head><body>The market decline continues! The three major U.S. stock indexes all fell more than 1% on Friday; U.S. WTI crude oil closed down 2.1% and fell 25% in the third quarter; Gold futures prices closed up 0.2% and fell 7.5% in the third quarter; Nike, Carnival Cruise Line's stock prices plummet after results; US House passes short-term spending bill to avoid government shutdown > > ><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f9cda6df860e081a4ae69f166a38be8c\" tg-width=\"1500\" tg-height=\"1700\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><b>Overseas Market</b></p><p><b>U.S. stocks close: the market decline continues! All three major indexes fell by more than 1%, falling for three consecutive quarters</b></p><p>On Friday, Eastern Time, the market decline continued. The three major indexes collectively fell by more than 1%, all closing at their lowest closing levels since 2020. The three major stock indexes all ended with declines this week, this month and this quarter. As of the close, the Dow Jones index fell 1.71% to 28,725.51 points; The S&P 500 fell 1.51% to 3,585.62 points; The Nasdaq fell 1.51% to 10,575.62 points.</p><p><b>Popular Chinese concept stocks are mixed, while new energy vehicles are mixed</b></p><p>Popular Chinese concept stocks were mixed,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BABA\">Alibaba</a>Up 1.18%,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/JD\">JD.com</a>Down 1.85%,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/PDD\">Pinduoduo</a>Up 2.98%,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BILI\">Bilibili</a>Up 0.46%,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BIDU\">Baidu</a>Down 0.20%,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/EDU\">New Oriental</a>Down 4.73%,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NTES\">NetEase</a>Up 0.56%,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TME\">Tencent Music</a>Up 1.25%,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/IQ\">IQiyi</a>Down 2.17%,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BEKE\">Shells</a>Up 7.75%,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TAL\">TAL</a>Up 3.78%; New energy vehicles have mixed gains and losses,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NIO\">Nio</a>Up 1.22%,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/LI\">Li Auto</a>Down 1.54%,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/XPEV\">XPeng vehicles</a>It fell 1.32%.</p><p><b>European stocks closed generally higher, with Germany's DAX30 index rising 1.14%</b></p><p>European stocks closed generally higher, with the German DAX30 index rising 1.14%.<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/VUKE.UK\">UK FTSE 100</a>The index rose 0.15%, the French CAC40 index rose 1.51%, and the European Stoxx 50 index rose 1.21%.</p><p><b>U.S. WTI crude oil closed down 2.1% on Friday and fell 25% in the third quarter</b></p><p>U.S. crude oil futures prices closed lower on Friday. Concerns about the prospect of economic recession have raised market expectations for a slowdown in crude oil demand in the future, causing crude oil prices to record declines in September and the third quarter. West Texas Intermediate crude oil (WTI) futures for November delivery fell $1.74, or 2.1%, to close at $79.49 a barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange. On the most active contract basis, U.S. WTI crude oil rose nearly 1% this week, falling 11% in September and about 25% in the third quarter.</p><p><b>Gold futures prices closed 0.2% higher on Friday, falling 7.5% in the third quarter</b></p><p>Gold futures prices closed higher on Friday, making gold futures prices record gains this week. Gold futures for December delivery rose $3.40, or 0.2%, to settle at $1,672 an ounce on the New York Mercantile Exchange on Friday. Based on the most active contract, gold futures prices rose 1% this week, falling 3.1% in September and 7.5% in the third quarter.</p><p><b>International macro</b></p><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/NW/2272257081\" target=\"_blank\"><b>U.S. House passes short-term spending bill to avoid government shutdown</b></a></p><p>The U.S. House of Representatives passed a short-term spending bill to maintain the normal operation of the U.S. government before December 16th and avoid the government shutdown at midnight on the 30th. The U.S. Senate passed the bill with a vote of 72 in favor and 25 against on September 29, local time, and the House of Representatives passed it with a vote of 230 in favor and 201 against on the 30th. It has now been submitted to President Biden for approval.</p><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/NW/2272081153\" target=\"_blank\"><b>The \"Inflation Reduction Act\" makes the EU feel a sore throat, and the precursors of \"deindustrialization\" increase concerns</b></a></p><p>According to the latest news, people familiar with the matter said that in addition to dissatisfaction with electric vehicle subsidies in the U.S. Inflation Reduction Act, the EU has also recently expressed concerns about renewable energy power generation, sustainable aviation fuel, hydrogen energy and other related regulations in the bill. worry.</p><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/NW/2271554088\" target=\"_blank\"><b>Another huge redemption this week! Wall Street fund market outflows exceed $23 billion</b></a></p><p>According to Refinitiv Lipper's latest fund flow data report, fund assets redeemed $23.2 billion in the week ended Sept. 28, the fourth week of net outflows in the past five weeks.</p><p><b>Company News</b></p><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/NW/1101175524\" target=\"_blank\"><b>Tesla plans to produce nearly 495,000 Model Y and Model 3 vehicles in Q4</b></a></p><p>According to media reports, Tesla plans to produce nearly 495,000 Model Y and Model 3 vehicles in the fourth quarter of this year, which will be much higher than the company's production in the third quarter. Tesla expects production of Model Y and Model 3 to reach 1.59 million units in the first three quarters of 2023. Tesla usually announces delivery and production data within three days after the end of the quarter. The company expects to announce third-quarter deliveries and production as early as Saturday (October 1) local time. Analysts predict that Tesla's delivery volume in the third quarter is expected to be close to 358,000 vehicles.</p><p><b>EU regulators will decide whether to approve by November 8<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MSFT\">Microsoft</a>Acquisition<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/ATVI\">Activision Blizzard</a></b></p><p>EU regulators will have until Nov. 8 to decide whether to approve Microsoft's acquisition of game developer Activision Blizzard, according to documents filed by the European Commission on Friday. In January this year, Microsoft announced that it would acquire Activision Blizzard for US $68.7 billion, the largest merger and acquisition transaction in the history of the gaming industry. Theoretically, if EU regulators have serious concerns about this acquisition, they can launch a four-month investigation. According to people familiar with the matter, EU regulators may take this approach. Microsoft said it is confident that the acquisition will be completed in fiscal year 2023.</p><p><b><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/DIS\">Disney</a>Deal reached with activist investors to bring former Meta executives to board</b></p><p>On Friday local time, Disney announced that veteran media person Carolyn Everson will join the company's board of directors on November 21st. This is an agreement between Disney and activist investor Dan Loeb's Third Point, just weeks after Third Point acquired about $1 billion worth of Disney shares, accounting for 0.4% of the latter's stake.</p><p><b><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NKE\">Nike</a>The stock price fell nearly 13%, and quarterly net profit fell 22% year-on-year, less than expected</b></p><p>On Friday, Eastern Time, Nike's stock price closed down 12.81% at $83.12 per share. Nike's chief financial officer (CFO) said after hours Thursday that things have changed again in the North American market, with cargo transit times improving, but inflation is hitting demand. Nike's North American inventory increased by 65% in the quarter, is taking \"decisive action\" to clear inventory, and it expects the company's gross margin to be \"temporarily affected\" this fiscal year.</p><p><b><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/CCL\">Carnival Cruises</a>Plunging more than 23%, third-quarter results miss the market expectation</b></p><p>On Friday, Eastern Time, Carnival Cruise Line's stock price closed down 23.25% at $7.03 per share. The company's previously announced third-quarter results fell short of expectations. Carnival Cruises reported revenue of $4.305 billion in Q3 2022, compared with $546 million in the same period last year. Adjusted net loss of US $688 million, expected loss of US $363.4 million; Cumulative presales in the fourth quarter were below historical ranges. Will drive lasting revenue growth by raising prices.</p><p><b><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/VALE\">Vale</a>Up more than 5%, announced restructuring of Brazilian nickel and copper business to achieve efficient management</b></p><p>Vale announced that the board of directors approved the restructuring of Vale's base metals business in Brazil. Among them, copper assets will be transferred to Salobo Metais S.A and nickel assets will be transferred to a new company established by Vale in Brazil. The copper and nickel assets will continue to be combined and will be wholly owned by Vale. Through the restructuring, the Brazilian base metals assets will be merged into two entities, resulting in more efficient processes and management. Vale clarified that no decision has been made on a new deal in the base metals business.</p><p></body></html></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Last night and this morning | U.S. stocks ended dismal in September! Three major indexes fell for three consecutive quarters</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nLast night and this morning | U.S. stocks ended dismal in September! Three major indexes fell for three consecutive quarters\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/102\">\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">老虎资讯综合 </p>\n<p class=\"h-time smaller\">2022-10-01 06:50</p>\n</div>\n</a>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><html><head></head><body>The market decline continues! The three major U.S. stock indexes all fell more than 1% on Friday; U.S. WTI crude oil closed down 2.1% and fell 25% in the third quarter; Gold futures prices closed up 0.2% and fell 7.5% in the third quarter; Nike, Carnival Cruise Line's stock prices plummet after results; US House passes short-term spending bill to avoid government shutdown > > ><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f9cda6df860e081a4ae69f166a38be8c\" tg-width=\"1500\" tg-height=\"1700\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><b>Overseas Market</b></p><p><b>U.S. stocks close: the market decline continues! All three major indexes fell by more than 1%, falling for three consecutive quarters</b></p><p>On Friday, Eastern Time, the market decline continued. The three major indexes collectively fell by more than 1%, all closing at their lowest closing levels since 2020. The three major stock indexes all ended with declines this week, this month and this quarter. As of the close, the Dow Jones index fell 1.71% to 28,725.51 points; The S&P 500 fell 1.51% to 3,585.62 points; The Nasdaq fell 1.51% to 10,575.62 points.</p><p><b>Popular Chinese concept stocks are mixed, while new energy vehicles are mixed</b></p><p>Popular Chinese concept stocks were mixed,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BABA\">Alibaba</a>Up 1.18%,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/JD\">JD.com</a>Down 1.85%,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/PDD\">Pinduoduo</a>Up 2.98%,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BILI\">Bilibili</a>Up 0.46%,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BIDU\">Baidu</a>Down 0.20%,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/EDU\">New Oriental</a>Down 4.73%,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NTES\">NetEase</a>Up 0.56%,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TME\">Tencent Music</a>Up 1.25%,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/IQ\">IQiyi</a>Down 2.17%,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BEKE\">Shells</a>Up 7.75%,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TAL\">TAL</a>Up 3.78%; New energy vehicles have mixed gains and losses,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NIO\">Nio</a>Up 1.22%,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/LI\">Li Auto</a>Down 1.54%,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/XPEV\">XPeng vehicles</a>It fell 1.32%.</p><p><b>European stocks closed generally higher, with Germany's DAX30 index rising 1.14%</b></p><p>European stocks closed generally higher, with the German DAX30 index rising 1.14%.<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/VUKE.UK\">UK FTSE 100</a>The index rose 0.15%, the French CAC40 index rose 1.51%, and the European Stoxx 50 index rose 1.21%.</p><p><b>U.S. WTI crude oil closed down 2.1% on Friday and fell 25% in the third quarter</b></p><p>U.S. crude oil futures prices closed lower on Friday. Concerns about the prospect of economic recession have raised market expectations for a slowdown in crude oil demand in the future, causing crude oil prices to record declines in September and the third quarter. West Texas Intermediate crude oil (WTI) futures for November delivery fell $1.74, or 2.1%, to close at $79.49 a barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange. On the most active contract basis, U.S. WTI crude oil rose nearly 1% this week, falling 11% in September and about 25% in the third quarter.</p><p><b>Gold futures prices closed 0.2% higher on Friday, falling 7.5% in the third quarter</b></p><p>Gold futures prices closed higher on Friday, making gold futures prices record gains this week. Gold futures for December delivery rose $3.40, or 0.2%, to settle at $1,672 an ounce on the New York Mercantile Exchange on Friday. Based on the most active contract, gold futures prices rose 1% this week, falling 3.1% in September and 7.5% in the third quarter.</p><p><b>International macro</b></p><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/NW/2272257081\" target=\"_blank\"><b>U.S. House passes short-term spending bill to avoid government shutdown</b></a></p><p>The U.S. House of Representatives passed a short-term spending bill to maintain the normal operation of the U.S. government before December 16th and avoid the government shutdown at midnight on the 30th. The U.S. Senate passed the bill with a vote of 72 in favor and 25 against on September 29, local time, and the House of Representatives passed it with a vote of 230 in favor and 201 against on the 30th. It has now been submitted to President Biden for approval.</p><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/NW/2272081153\" target=\"_blank\"><b>The \"Inflation Reduction Act\" makes the EU feel a sore throat, and the precursors of \"deindustrialization\" increase concerns</b></a></p><p>According to the latest news, people familiar with the matter said that in addition to dissatisfaction with electric vehicle subsidies in the U.S. Inflation Reduction Act, the EU has also recently expressed concerns about renewable energy power generation, sustainable aviation fuel, hydrogen energy and other related regulations in the bill. worry.</p><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/NW/2271554088\" target=\"_blank\"><b>Another huge redemption this week! Wall Street fund market outflows exceed $23 billion</b></a></p><p>According to Refinitiv Lipper's latest fund flow data report, fund assets redeemed $23.2 billion in the week ended Sept. 28, the fourth week of net outflows in the past five weeks.</p><p><b>Company News</b></p><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/NW/1101175524\" target=\"_blank\"><b>Tesla plans to produce nearly 495,000 Model Y and Model 3 vehicles in Q4</b></a></p><p>According to media reports, Tesla plans to produce nearly 495,000 Model Y and Model 3 vehicles in the fourth quarter of this year, which will be much higher than the company's production in the third quarter. Tesla expects production of Model Y and Model 3 to reach 1.59 million units in the first three quarters of 2023. Tesla usually announces delivery and production data within three days after the end of the quarter. The company expects to announce third-quarter deliveries and production as early as Saturday (October 1) local time. Analysts predict that Tesla's delivery volume in the third quarter is expected to be close to 358,000 vehicles.</p><p><b>EU regulators will decide whether to approve by November 8<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MSFT\">Microsoft</a>Acquisition<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/ATVI\">Activision Blizzard</a></b></p><p>EU regulators will have until Nov. 8 to decide whether to approve Microsoft's acquisition of game developer Activision Blizzard, according to documents filed by the European Commission on Friday. In January this year, Microsoft announced that it would acquire Activision Blizzard for US $68.7 billion, the largest merger and acquisition transaction in the history of the gaming industry. Theoretically, if EU regulators have serious concerns about this acquisition, they can launch a four-month investigation. According to people familiar with the matter, EU regulators may take this approach. Microsoft said it is confident that the acquisition will be completed in fiscal year 2023.</p><p><b><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/DIS\">Disney</a>Deal reached with activist investors to bring former Meta executives to board</b></p><p>On Friday local time, Disney announced that veteran media person Carolyn Everson will join the company's board of directors on November 21st. This is an agreement between Disney and activist investor Dan Loeb's Third Point, just weeks after Third Point acquired about $1 billion worth of Disney shares, accounting for 0.4% of the latter's stake.</p><p><b><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NKE\">Nike</a>The stock price fell nearly 13%, and quarterly net profit fell 22% year-on-year, less than expected</b></p><p>On Friday, Eastern Time, Nike's stock price closed down 12.81% at $83.12 per share. Nike's chief financial officer (CFO) said after hours Thursday that things have changed again in the North American market, with cargo transit times improving, but inflation is hitting demand. Nike's North American inventory increased by 65% in the quarter, is taking \"decisive action\" to clear inventory, and it expects the company's gross margin to be \"temporarily affected\" this fiscal year.</p><p><b><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/CCL\">Carnival Cruises</a>Plunging more than 23%, third-quarter results miss the market expectation</b></p><p>On Friday, Eastern Time, Carnival Cruise Line's stock price closed down 23.25% at $7.03 per share. The company's previously announced third-quarter results fell short of expectations. Carnival Cruises reported revenue of $4.305 billion in Q3 2022, compared with $546 million in the same period last year. Adjusted net loss of US $688 million, expected loss of US $363.4 million; Cumulative presales in the fourth quarter were below historical ranges. Will drive lasting revenue growth by raising prices.</p><p><b><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/VALE\">Vale</a>Up more than 5%, announced restructuring of Brazilian nickel and copper business to achieve efficient management</b></p><p>Vale announced that the board of directors approved the restructuring of Vale's base metals business in Brazil. Among them, copper assets will be transferred to Salobo Metais S.A and nickel assets will be transferred to a new company established by Vale in Brazil. The copper and nickel assets will continue to be combined and will be wholly owned by Vale. Through the restructuring, the Brazilian base metals assets will be merged into two entities, resulting in more efficient processes and management. Vale clarified that no decision has been made on a new deal in the base metals business.</p><p></body></html></p>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b23574aac95526c9e5c62ebc8dd25130","relate_stocks":{".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite",".DJI":"道琼斯",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index"},"source_url":"","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1118365121","content_text":"市场颓势仍在延续！美股三大指数周五均跌超1%；美国WTI原油收跌2.1%，三季度重挫25%；黄金期货价格收高0.2%，三季度下跌7.5%；耐克、嘉年华邮轮绩后股价重挫；美国众议院通过短期支出法案，避免政府停摆>>>海外市场美股收盘：市场颓势仍在延续！三大指数均跌超1%，连续三季下跌美东时间周五，市场颓势仍在延续，三大指数集体跌超1%，均收于2020年以来的最低收盘水平，三大股指本周、本月以及本季度都以下跌而结束。截至收盘，道琼斯指数跌1.71%，报28,725.51点；标普500指数跌1.51%，报3,585.62点；纳斯达克指数跌1.51%，报10,575.62点。热门中概股涨跌互现，新能源汽车涨跌不一热门中概股涨跌互现，阿里巴巴涨1.18%，京东跌1.85%，拼多多涨2.98%，哔哩哔哩涨0.46%，百度跌0.20%，新东方跌4.73%，网易涨0.56%，腾讯音乐涨1.25%，爱奇艺跌2.17%，贝壳涨7.75%，好未来涨3.78%；新能源汽车涨跌不一，蔚来涨1.22%，理想汽车跌1.54%，小鹏汽车跌1.32%。欧股收盘普涨，德国DAX30指数涨1.14%欧股收盘普涨，德国DAX30指数涨1.14%，英国富时100指数涨0.15%，法国CAC40指数涨1.51%，欧洲斯托克50指数涨1.21%。美国WTI原油周五收跌2.1%，三季度重挫25%美国原油期货价格周五收跌。对经济衰退前景的担忧，使市场对未来原油需求放缓的预期升温，令原油价格在9月份和第三季度都录得跌幅。纽约商品交易所11月交割的西德州中质原油（WTI）期货价格下跌1.74美元，跌幅为2.1%，收于每桶79.49美元。按照最活跃合约计算，美国WTI原油本周上涨近1%，在9月份下跌11%，在第三季度下跌约25%。黄金期货价格周五收高0.2%，三季度下跌7.5%黄金期货价格周五收高，使本周黄金期货价格录得涨幅。周五，纽约商品交易所12月交割的黄金期货价格上涨3.40美元，涨幅为0.2%，收于每盎司1672美元。按照最活跃合约计算，黄金期货价格本周上涨1%，在9月份下跌3.1%，在第三季度下跌7.5%。国际宏观美国众议院通过短期支出法案，避免政府停摆美国众议院通过了一项短期支出法案，维持美国政府在12月16日之前正常运转，避免了政府于30日午夜停摆。美国参议院于当地时间9月29日以72票赞成、25票反对的投票结果通过这项法案，众议院于30日以230票赞成、201票反对的投票结果通过，现在已提交给总统拜登批准。《通胀削减法案》令欧盟如鲠在喉，“去工业化”出现前兆加剧担忧最新的消息显示，知情人士称，除了对美国《通胀削减法案》之中电动汽车补贴的不满，欧盟内部在近期还对法案中可再生能源发电、可持续航空燃料、氢能等相关条例表达了担忧。本周再遭巨额赎回！华尔街基金市场流出资金逾230亿美元根据Refinitiv Lipper最新的资金流动数据报告，截至9月28日当周，基金资产赎回了232亿美元，这是过去五周中第四周出现净流出。公司新闻特斯拉Q4计划生产近49.5万辆Model Y和Model 3据媒体报道，特斯拉计划在今年四季度生产近49.5万辆Model Y和Model 3，这一数字将远高于该公司三季度的产量。特斯拉预计，2023年前三季度，Model Y和Model 3的产量将达到159万辆。特斯拉通常会在季度结束后的三天内公布交付和生产数据，该公司预计最早将于当地时间周六（10月1日）公布三季度的交付量和产量。分析师预计，特斯拉三季度的交付量有望接近35.8万辆。欧盟监管机构将在11月8日前决定是否批准微软收购动视暴雪根据欧盟委员会周五提交的文件，欧盟监管机构将在11月8日前决定是否批准微软收购游戏开发商动视暴雪的交易。今年1月，微软宣布将以687亿美元收购动视暴雪，这是游戏行业史上规模最大的并购交易。理论上，如果欧盟监管机构对这笔收购存在严重担忧，可以展开为期4个月的调查。知情人士透露，欧盟监管机构可能会采取这一做法。微软对此表示，有信心在2023财年完成收购。迪士尼与维权投资者达成协议，将吸纳Meta前高管进入董事会当地时间周五，迪士尼公司宣布，资深媒体人Carolyn Everson将于11月21日加入公司董事会。这是迪士尼与维权投资者Dan Loeb的Third Point达成的一项协议，就在几周前，Third Point收购了价值约10亿美元的迪士尼股份，占到后者股份的0.4%。耐克股价大跌近13%，季度净利润同比下降22%不及预期美东时间周五，耐克股价收跌12.81%，报83.12美元/股。耐克首席财务官(CFO)周四盘后表示，北美市场的情况再次发生了变化，货物运输时间正在改善，但通货膨胀打击了需求。该季度耐克的北美库存量增加了65%，正在采取“果断行动”清理库存，预计本财年公司的毛利率将受到“暂时影响”。嘉年华邮轮暴跌逾23%，三季度业绩不及市场预期美东时间周五，嘉年华邮轮股价收盘暴跌23.25%，报7.03美元/股，该公司此前公布的三季度业绩不及预期。嘉年华邮轮公布2022年Q3营收43.05亿美元，去年同期为5.46亿美元。调整后净亏损6.88亿美元，预期亏损3.634亿美元；第四季度的累计预售量低于历史范围。将通过提高价格来推动持久的收入增长。淡水河谷涨超5%，宣布重组巴西镍和铜业务以实现高效管理淡水河谷宣布，董事会批准重组淡水河谷在巴西持有的贱金属业务，其中，铜资产将转移至Salobo Metais S.A，镍资产将转移至淡水河谷在巴西成立的新公司。铜和镍资产将继续合并，并由淡水河谷全资拥有。通过重组，巴西贱金属资产将合并为两个实体，从而实现更高效的流程和管理。淡水河谷澄清，目前尚未就贱金属业务的新交易作出决定。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{".DJI":0.9,".SPX":0.9,".IXIC":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1459,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9916849797,"gmtCreate":1664579396720,"gmtModify":1676537478313,"author":{"id":"3575067142498671","authorId":"3575067142498671","name":"JWZ137","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/842968796125e5a418b21a3b4ab603ef","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3575067142498671","idStr":"3575067142498671"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Wow&nbsp;","listText":"Wow&nbsp;","text":"Wow","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9916849797","repostId":"2271724057","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"2271724057","kind":"highlight","pubTimestamp":1664509328,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/2271724057?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2022-09-30 11:42","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"When will the European and American bear markets fall? Focus on these metrics","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2271724057","media":"华尔街见闻","summary":"分析认为，政府财政信誉的恢复、收益率曲线倒挂趋势的反转和市场流动性的改善，可以帮助市场判断熊市的转折点。今年以来，在各国央行不惜以经济衰退为代价遏制通胀的坚定决心下，全球股市和债市深陷熊市区间。标普5","content":"<p><html><head></head><body>According to the analysis, the recovery of the government's financial reputation, the reversal of the inversion trend of the yield curve and the improvement of market liquidity can help the market judge the turning point of the bear market. Since the beginning of this year, under the firm determination of central banks to curb inflation at the expense of economic recession, global stock and bond markets have been mired in bear market territory. The S&P 500 is down 24% so far this year.</p><p>On Thursday local time, media commentator Simon White pointed out that there are three indicators that can help the market judge when the current bear market of European and American stock markets and other risky assets will end:<b>The recovery of government fiscal credibility, the reversal of the inverted trend of yield curve and the improvement of market liquidity.</b></p><p><b>Deteriorating fiscal credibility will push up inflation</b></p><p>White pointed out that the root cause of this round of inflation is the huge deficits behind fiscal stimulus in various countries at the beginning of the epidemic. The pandemic itself and the conflict in Ukraine didn't trigger price increases, they just exacerbated underlying inflation that was already worsening.</p><p>In a recent paper presented at the Jackson Hole conference, the Federal Reserve noted that,<b>Large-scale fiscal interventions during the pandemic have led to the loss of U.S. fiscal credibility. Inflation trends in European and American countries depend on the credibility of fiscal authorities in stabilizing large-scale fiscal imbalances. Although monetary policy has a certain role in fighting inflation, it is no longer decisive.</b></p><p>When the fiscal authority is deemed unable to reverse existing fiscal imbalances, the market bets that it will allow inflation to rise to ensure the sustainability of the Treasury Bond. If the serious fiscal imbalance is coupled with the weakening of fiscal credibility, the inflation trend will deviate from the central bank's long-term inflation target.</p><p>When inflation is dominated by finance (fiscal stimulus induces inflation, and inflation also dilutes debt), if coupled with monetary tightening, it is likely to turn inflation into a kind of \"fiscal stagflation.\" This kind of fiscal stagflation stems from the gradual deterioration of fiscal credibility under huge debt, and the market's realization that central bank remedies are not enough to offset the expected behavior of fiscal authorities.</p><p>When investors don't believe that huge fiscal imbalances will return to stability, the work of the authorities will become extremely difficult.<b>Only when public debt can be successfully stabilized through a credible fiscal plan can monetary authorities control inflation. Therefore, the first condition to end the bear market is the restoration of the government's fiscal credibility.</b></p><p><b>The reversal of the inverted yield curve</b></p><p>White Think that,<b>The second condition is an inversion of the inverted trend of the real yield curve.</b></p><p>At present, long-term and short-term U.S. bond yields continue to be deeply inverted: due to the Federal Reserve's withdrawal from easing policy, the closely watched 2-year and 10-year U.S. bond yield spread widened to-58 basis points last month, the highest since 1982. biggest drop.</p><p>In the 1970s, Treasury Bond's yield curve has been steepening despite the sharp rise in US interest rates. The Federal Reserve has neither the will nor the actual action to continue to make aggressive rate hike to curb inflation. At that time, the credibility of the Federal Reserve was somewhat damaged.</p><p>In early 1980, the Federal Reserve cut interest rates prematurely due to the economic slowdown, but then finally made the right decision and continued its aggressive rate hike during the 1981-1982 recession, with interest rates reaching 20%.</p><p><b>Being more sensitive to interest rates, short-term yields rose at a faster rate than long-term yields, and the real yield curve began to flatten severely in 1980 and inverted in April 1981.</b>Later, in August 1982, the rebound that lasted for many years began.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/bc769480dd78b4e061399a9d05a98b5c\" tg-width=\"731\" tg-height=\"462\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><b>The market believes that when the economic recession comes, the Federal Reserve will ease policy, and this bet will cause longer-term bond yields to rise rapidly, reversing the trend of yield inversion; If the market expects the Fed to keep pushing interest rates higher enough to trigger a recession, the inversion of the yield curve will deepen further.</b></p><p><b>Improvement in liquidity</b></p><p>White Indicates,<b>The ultimate condition for the end of a bear market is the improvement of stock market liquidity.</b></p><p>Liquidity is one of the most important medium-term drivers of the stock market. When the real yield curve inverted in 1981, liquidity was still in a deteriorating stage; But by early 1982, the growth of liquidity had greatly improved and continued to rise.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b97b73e7cda22353aa922bdd6fc3db63\" tg-width=\"726\" tg-height=\"466\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>In February 1982, the liquidity of the stock market improved, attracting an influx of investors. Although the S&P 500 index fell by 10%-12% in the short term, it has almost continued to rise since then, with an increase of 220%.</p><p>But with U.S. fiscal credibility weakening, real yield curves inverted and still deepening, and very unfavorable liquidity conditions, this round of bear market may see further declines, White concluded.</p><p></body></html></p>","source":"wallstreetcn_api","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>When will the European and American bear markets fall? Focus on these metrics</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nWhen will the European and American bear markets fall? Focus on these metrics\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">华尔街见闻</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2022-09-30 11:42</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><html><head></head><body>According to the analysis, the recovery of the government's financial reputation, the reversal of the inversion trend of the yield curve and the improvement of market liquidity can help the market judge the turning point of the bear market. Since the beginning of this year, under the firm determination of central banks to curb inflation at the expense of economic recession, global stock and bond markets have been mired in bear market territory. The S&P 500 is down 24% so far this year.</p><p>On Thursday local time, media commentator Simon White pointed out that there are three indicators that can help the market judge when the current bear market of European and American stock markets and other risky assets will end:<b>The recovery of government fiscal credibility, the reversal of the inverted trend of yield curve and the improvement of market liquidity.</b></p><p><b>Deteriorating fiscal credibility will push up inflation</b></p><p>White pointed out that the root cause of this round of inflation is the huge deficits behind fiscal stimulus in various countries at the beginning of the epidemic. The pandemic itself and the conflict in Ukraine didn't trigger price increases, they just exacerbated underlying inflation that was already worsening.</p><p>In a recent paper presented at the Jackson Hole conference, the Federal Reserve noted that,<b>Large-scale fiscal interventions during the pandemic have led to the loss of U.S. fiscal credibility. Inflation trends in European and American countries depend on the credibility of fiscal authorities in stabilizing large-scale fiscal imbalances. Although monetary policy has a certain role in fighting inflation, it is no longer decisive.</b></p><p>When the fiscal authority is deemed unable to reverse existing fiscal imbalances, the market bets that it will allow inflation to rise to ensure the sustainability of the Treasury Bond. If the serious fiscal imbalance is coupled with the weakening of fiscal credibility, the inflation trend will deviate from the central bank's long-term inflation target.</p><p>When inflation is dominated by finance (fiscal stimulus induces inflation, and inflation also dilutes debt), if coupled with monetary tightening, it is likely to turn inflation into a kind of \"fiscal stagflation.\" This kind of fiscal stagflation stems from the gradual deterioration of fiscal credibility under huge debt, and the market's realization that central bank remedies are not enough to offset the expected behavior of fiscal authorities.</p><p>When investors don't believe that huge fiscal imbalances will return to stability, the work of the authorities will become extremely difficult.<b>Only when public debt can be successfully stabilized through a credible fiscal plan can monetary authorities control inflation. Therefore, the first condition to end the bear market is the restoration of the government's fiscal credibility.</b></p><p><b>The reversal of the inverted yield curve</b></p><p>White Think that,<b>The second condition is an inversion of the inverted trend of the real yield curve.</b></p><p>At present, long-term and short-term U.S. bond yields continue to be deeply inverted: due to the Federal Reserve's withdrawal from easing policy, the closely watched 2-year and 10-year U.S. bond yield spread widened to-58 basis points last month, the highest since 1982. biggest drop.</p><p>In the 1970s, Treasury Bond's yield curve has been steepening despite the sharp rise in US interest rates. The Federal Reserve has neither the will nor the actual action to continue to make aggressive rate hike to curb inflation. At that time, the credibility of the Federal Reserve was somewhat damaged.</p><p>In early 1980, the Federal Reserve cut interest rates prematurely due to the economic slowdown, but then finally made the right decision and continued its aggressive rate hike during the 1981-1982 recession, with interest rates reaching 20%.</p><p><b>Being more sensitive to interest rates, short-term yields rose at a faster rate than long-term yields, and the real yield curve began to flatten severely in 1980 and inverted in April 1981.</b>Later, in August 1982, the rebound that lasted for many years began.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/bc769480dd78b4e061399a9d05a98b5c\" tg-width=\"731\" tg-height=\"462\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><b>The market believes that when the economic recession comes, the Federal Reserve will ease policy, and this bet will cause longer-term bond yields to rise rapidly, reversing the trend of yield inversion; If the market expects the Fed to keep pushing interest rates higher enough to trigger a recession, the inversion of the yield curve will deepen further.</b></p><p><b>Improvement in liquidity</b></p><p>White Indicates,<b>The ultimate condition for the end of a bear market is the improvement of stock market liquidity.</b></p><p>Liquidity is one of the most important medium-term drivers of the stock market. When the real yield curve inverted in 1981, liquidity was still in a deteriorating stage; But by early 1982, the growth of liquidity had greatly improved and continued to rise.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b97b73e7cda22353aa922bdd6fc3db63\" tg-width=\"726\" tg-height=\"466\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>In February 1982, the liquidity of the stock market improved, attracting an influx of investors. Although the S&P 500 index fell by 10%-12% in the short term, it has almost continued to rise since then, with an increase of 220%.</p><p>But with U.S. fiscal credibility weakening, real yield curves inverted and still deepening, and very unfavorable liquidity conditions, this round of bear market may see further declines, White concluded.</p><p></body></html></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> source：<a href=\"https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3671591\">华尔街见闻</a></p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a82005fdd5a20870413111b3adc1a547","relate_stocks":{"161125":"标普500","513500":"标普500ETF博时",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite","DDM":"2倍做多道指ETF-ProShares","SPXU":"三倍做空标普500ETF-ProShares","BK4550":"红杉资本持仓","IVV":"标普500ETF-iShares","QID":"两倍做空纳斯达克指数ETF-ProShares","SSO":"2倍做多标普500ETF-ProShares","TQQQ":"纳指三倍做多ETF","PSQ":"做空纳斯达克100指数ETF-ProShares","DJX":"1/100道琼斯","SPY":"标普500ETF","BK4581":"高盛持仓","SH":"做空标普500-Proshares","OEX":"标普100","QQQ":"纳指100ETF","SDOW":"三倍做空道指30ETF-ProShares",".DJI":"道琼斯","BK4534":"瑞士信贷持仓","DXD":"两倍做空道琼30指数ETF-ProShares","UDOW":"三倍做多道指30ETF-ProShares","SDS":"两倍做空标普500 ETF-ProShares","QLD":"2倍做多纳斯达克100指数ETF-ProShares","DOG":"道指ETF-ProShares做空","OEF":"标普100指数ETF-iShares","SQQQ":"纳指三倍做空ETF",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index","UPRO":"三倍做多标普500ETF-ProShares","BK4504":"桥水持仓","BK4559":"巴菲特持仓"},"source_url":"https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3671591","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2271724057","content_text":"分析认为，政府财政信誉的恢复、收益率曲线倒挂趋势的反转和市场流动性的改善，可以帮助市场判断熊市的转折点。今年以来，在各国央行不惜以经济衰退为代价遏制通胀的坚定决心下，全球股市和债市深陷熊市区间。标普500指数今年迄今下跌24%。当地时间周四，媒体评论员 Simon White 分析指出，有三个指标可以帮助市场判断本轮欧美股市和其他风险资产的熊市何时才能结束：政府财政信誉的恢复、收益率曲线倒挂趋势的反转和市场流动性的改善。恶化的财政信誉将推高通胀White 指出，本轮通胀的根本原因是，疫情爆发之初各国财政刺激背后的巨额赤字。疫情本身和乌克兰冲突并没有引发价格上涨，它们只是加剧了已经恶化的潜在通胀。美联储最近在杰克逊霍尔会议上发表的一篇论文中指出，疫情期间的大规模财政干预导致了美国财政信誉的丧失。欧美国家的通胀趋势取决于财政当局在稳住大规模财政失衡方面的可信度。尽管货币政策对抗通胀有一定的作用，但已经不是决定性的。当财政当局被认为无法扭转现有的财政失衡时，市场会押注其将允许通胀上升以确保国债的可持续性。若严重的财政失衡再叠加财政信誉减弱，将导致通胀趋势偏离央行的长期通胀目标。当通胀由财政主导时（财政刺激诱发通胀，同时通胀也使债务稀释），若再叠加上货币紧缩，很可能就将通胀变为一种“财政滞胀”。这类财政滞胀，源于巨额债务下的财政信誉逐渐恶化，以及市场认识到央行的补救措施不足以抵消财政当局的预期行为。当投资者不相信巨额财政失衡将恢复稳定时，当局的工作将变得极其困难。只有当公共债务能通过可信的财政计划成功稳住时，货币当局才能掌控通胀。因此，结束熊市的第一个条件就是政府财政信誉的恢复。收益率曲线倒挂的逆转White 认为，第二个条件是实际收益率曲线的倒挂趋势出现反转。目前，长期和短期美债收益率出现持续深度倒挂：由于美联储退出宽松政策，备受关注的2年期和10年期美债收益率差在上月扩大至-58个基点，为1982年以来的最大跌幅。在上世纪70年代，尽管美国利率大幅上升，但国债收益率曲线一直在变陡。美联储既没有意愿也没有实际行动，持续大幅加息以遏制通胀。当时美联储的信誉受到了一定损害。1980年初，美联储因经济放缓而过早降息，但后来终于做出了正确的决定，在1981-1982年的衰退期间继续大举加息，利率水平达到了20%。由于对利率更为敏感，短期收益率比长期收益率以更快的速度上涨，实际收益率曲线在1980年开始严重趋平，并在1981年4月出现倒挂，后来在1982年8月才开始出现持续多年的反弹。市场认为，当经济衰退来临时，美联储会放松政策，而这种押注会使得较长期的债券收益率迅速上升，逆转收益率倒挂趋势；如果市场预期美联储将持续把利率推高到足以引发衰退的程度，收益率曲线的倒挂程度就会进一步加深。流动性的改善White 表示，熊市结束的最终条件就是股市流动性的改善。流动性是股市最重要的中期驱动因素之一。1981年实际收益率曲线倒挂时，流动性仍处于恶化阶段；但到1982年初，流动性的增长已经大大改善并在持续上升。1982年2月，股市流动性出现改善，吸引投资者纷纷涌入。标普500指数虽然短期下跌10%-12%，但之后几乎不停上涨，涨幅达到了220%。White 总结道，但在美国财政信誉减弱、实际收益率曲线倒挂并且仍在加深、流动性条件非常不利的情况下，本轮熊市可能出现进一步下跌。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"161125":0.6,"513500":0.6,"DXD":0.6,"SPXU":0.6,"UDOW":0.6,"MNQmain":0.6,"IVV":0.6,"DJX":0.6,"OEF":0.6,".SPX":0.6,"SPY":0.9,"SSO":0.6,"TQQQ":0.6,"SDS":0.6,"SQQQ":0.6,"UPRO":0.6,"PSQ":0.6,"QLD":0.6,"QID":0.6,"ESmain":0.6,"SH":0.6,"DOG":0.6,"NQmain":0.6,".DJI":0.73,"SDOW":0.6,".IXIC":0.73,"OEX":0.6,"QQQ":0.6,"DDM":0.6}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1095,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9918286118,"gmtCreate":1664407535234,"gmtModify":1676537447210,"author":{"id":"3575067142498671","authorId":"3575067142498671","name":"JWZ137","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/842968796125e5a418b21a3b4ab603ef","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3575067142498671","idStr":"3575067142498671"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Wow&nbsp;","listText":"Wow&nbsp;","text":"Wow","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9918286118","repostId":"1146442697","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1143,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9918288787,"gmtCreate":1664407502549,"gmtModify":1676537447201,"author":{"id":"3575067142498671","authorId":"3575067142498671","name":"JWZ137","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/842968796125e5a418b21a3b4ab603ef","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3575067142498671","idStr":"3575067142498671"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Wow&nbsp;","listText":"Wow&nbsp;","text":"Wow","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9918288787","repostId":"1106991391","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1106991391","kind":"news","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"提供来自华尔街的观点，观察市场，提供独道的解读视角。","home_visible":1,"media_name":"老虎锐评","id":"1005414032","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba"},"pubTimestamp":1664284198,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1106991391?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2022-09-27 21:09","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"Tiger Comments: Under the strong US dollar, who is more \"miserable\" among the British pound, the Japanese yen or the euro?","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1106991391","media":"老虎锐评","summary":"在这波美元强势的大背景下发达国家出了什么问题。","content":"<p><html><head></head><body>Today, we mainly discuss a question, what's wrong with developed countries in the context of this wave of strong US dollar.</p><p>The US Dollar Index DXY is a backward index. Since its birth, the composition and weight of this index have not changed. The three largest components behind the index are the euro 57.6%, the Japanese yen 13.6% and the British pound 11.9%, accounting for 82%. The 30 stocks in the Dow Jones Index have been adjusted many times since their birth. The current 30 stocks are completely different from the 30 stocks in the first edition, but even so, not many people look at the Dow Jones Index now. I don't understand why ICE, the organization behind the US Dollar Index DXY, is too lazy to spend resources on the index. If this index is promoted a little, there will be many products to develop.</p><p>The three figures below show the trade of the United States with Europe, Japan and the United Kingdom, from 2000 to 2021. The blue column represents U.S. exports to that region, the orange column represents U.S. imports from that region, the gray line represents imports + exports, and the yellow line represents U.S. trade surplus deficit to that region.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7ed2b81c5bbccfc625b61d0bcacc5f8e\" tg-width=\"670\" tg-height=\"388\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/710cbfe5a2fab6d731782f9d49a3eade\" tg-width=\"674\" tg-height=\"395\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1394dbc738b53750d23021cb48650477\" tg-width=\"673\" tg-height=\"391\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p>China's customs data likes to say \"import + export\" (gray line in the picture above), and the figure that the United States, especially Trump's era, likes to emphasize is \"surplus/deficit\" (yellow line in the picture above). In fact, both figures are very important. \"Import + export\" measures the closeness between the two economies. The larger the number, the tighter the binding between the two economies; The \"surplus/deficit\" measures the strength or weakness of one economy relative to another.</p><p>In the past 20 years, the activity of trade between these three countries/regions and the United States is +100% for the European Union, +0% for Japan and +50% for the United Kingdom. The trade activity of the United States relative to the world (figure below) has increased by +130%. This shows,<b>The economic activity of these three countries/regions and the United States has all declined in the past 20 years.</b></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/df2db41ea65029f0cb030c2d2d26d36c\" tg-width=\"673\" tg-height=\"399\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p>The biggest decline in activity is the US-Japan economic and trade, which has been standing still in the past 20 years; In the economic and trade relations between the United States and Britain, the import and export are almost balanced, which means that Britain can't earn dollars in its trade with the United States. The currencies of these two countries will be very uncomfortable against the background of a strong dollar. Because Japan is in a surplus position in long-term transactions with the United States, the foreign exchange reserves of the Bank of Japan are much higher than those of the United Kingdom. The key to proving that the short-term yen is defensive is the attitude of the Bank of Japan. The chart below shows the foreign exchange reserves of the Bank of Japan and the Bank of England. Japan's foreign reserves (red line) are 9 times that of the United Kingdom (green line).</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/064bc72f1ec140bd79721950255b256f\" tg-width=\"1599\" tg-height=\"813\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p>GBP < JPY < < EUR.</p><p></body></html></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Tiger Comments: Under the strong US dollar, who is more \"miserable\" among the British pound, the Japanese yen or the euro?</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nTiger Comments: Under the strong US dollar, who is more \"miserable\" among the British pound, the Japanese yen or the euro?\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/1005414032\">\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">老虎锐评 </p>\n<p class=\"h-time smaller\">2022-09-27 21:09</p>\n</div>\n</a>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><html><head></head><body>Today, we mainly discuss a question, what's wrong with developed countries in the context of this wave of strong US dollar.</p><p>The US Dollar Index DXY is a backward index. Since its birth, the composition and weight of this index have not changed. The three largest components behind the index are the euro 57.6%, the Japanese yen 13.6% and the British pound 11.9%, accounting for 82%. The 30 stocks in the Dow Jones Index have been adjusted many times since their birth. The current 30 stocks are completely different from the 30 stocks in the first edition, but even so, not many people look at the Dow Jones Index now. I don't understand why ICE, the organization behind the US Dollar Index DXY, is too lazy to spend resources on the index. If this index is promoted a little, there will be many products to develop.</p><p>The three figures below show the trade of the United States with Europe, Japan and the United Kingdom, from 2000 to 2021. The blue column represents U.S. exports to that region, the orange column represents U.S. imports from that region, the gray line represents imports + exports, and the yellow line represents U.S. trade surplus deficit to that region.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7ed2b81c5bbccfc625b61d0bcacc5f8e\" tg-width=\"670\" tg-height=\"388\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/710cbfe5a2fab6d731782f9d49a3eade\" tg-width=\"674\" tg-height=\"395\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1394dbc738b53750d23021cb48650477\" tg-width=\"673\" tg-height=\"391\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p>China's customs data likes to say \"import + export\" (gray line in the picture above), and the figure that the United States, especially Trump's era, likes to emphasize is \"surplus/deficit\" (yellow line in the picture above). In fact, both figures are very important. \"Import + export\" measures the closeness between the two economies. The larger the number, the tighter the binding between the two economies; The \"surplus/deficit\" measures the strength or weakness of one economy relative to another.</p><p>In the past 20 years, the activity of trade between these three countries/regions and the United States is +100% for the European Union, +0% for Japan and +50% for the United Kingdom. The trade activity of the United States relative to the world (figure below) has increased by +130%. This shows,<b>The economic activity of these three countries/regions and the United States has all declined in the past 20 years.</b></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/df2db41ea65029f0cb030c2d2d26d36c\" tg-width=\"673\" tg-height=\"399\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p>The biggest decline in activity is the US-Japan economic and trade, which has been standing still in the past 20 years; In the economic and trade relations between the United States and Britain, the import and export are almost balanced, which means that Britain can't earn dollars in its trade with the United States. The currencies of these two countries will be very uncomfortable against the background of a strong dollar. Because Japan is in a surplus position in long-term transactions with the United States, the foreign exchange reserves of the Bank of Japan are much higher than those of the United Kingdom. The key to proving that the short-term yen is defensive is the attitude of the Bank of Japan. The chart below shows the foreign exchange reserves of the Bank of Japan and the Bank of England. Japan's foreign reserves (red line) are 9 times that of the United Kingdom (green line).</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/064bc72f1ec140bd79721950255b256f\" tg-width=\"1599\" tg-height=\"813\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p>GBP < JPY < < EUR.</p><p></body></html></p>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9e51dca4aea5a4f4975d48e2264c0446","relate_stocks":{"UUP":"美元ETF-PowerShares DB"},"source_url":"","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1106991391","content_text":"今天主要讨论一个问题，在这波美元强势的大背景下发达国家出了什么问题。美元指数DXY是一个落后的指数，这个指数从诞生开始，指数里面的成分和权重就没有变化过。指数后面最大的3个成分是欧元57.6%，日元13.6%和英镑11.9%，这3个货币占比82%。道琼斯指数30只股票，从诞生之初调整多次，目前30只股票和第一版的30只股票已经完全不一样，但即使这样现在看道琼斯指数的人也不多了。搞不懂为何美元指数DXY后面的机构ICE却懒得在指数上花资源，这个指数稍微做点推广，会有很多产品可以搞。下面三个图，分别是美国对欧洲、对日本和对英国的贸易，时间从2000-2021年。蓝柱代表美国对那个地区的出口，橙柱代表美国从那个地区的进口，灰色线代表进口+出口，黄线代表美国对那个地区的贸易顺差逆差。中国海关的数据喜欢说“进口+出口”（上图灰线），美国特别是川普时期喜欢强调的数字是“顺差/逆差”（上图黄线），其实这两个数字都很重要。“进口+出口”衡量的是两个经济体之间的紧密程度，数字越大代表两个经济体绑定得越紧；“顺差/逆差”衡量的是某个经济体相对于另一个经济体的强弱地位。过去20年，这三个国家/地区和美国的贸易的活跃程度，欧盟+100%，日本+0%，英国+50%。而美国相对于全世界的贸易活跃程度（下图）是增加了+130%。这就说明，这3个国家/地区和美国的经济活跃程度，在过去20年全部在下降。活跃程度下降得最大的是美日经贸，过去20年原地踏步；而美英的经贸关系中，进出口几乎平衡，也就是说英国在和美国贸易往来中，是赚不到美元的。这两个国家的货币，在强势美元的背景下会非常难受。日本因为长期和美国的交易中，处于顺差地位，所以日本央行的外汇储备远远高于英国，证明短期日元是有防御能力的关键是日本央行的态度。下图是日本央行和英国央行的外汇储备，日本的外储（红线）是英国（绿线）的9倍。英镑<日元<<欧元。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"MJYmain":1,"UUP":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1809,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9918288363,"gmtCreate":1664407471252,"gmtModify":1676537447175,"author":{"id":"3575067142498671","authorId":"3575067142498671","name":"JWZ137","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/842968796125e5a418b21a3b4ab603ef","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3575067142498671","idStr":"3575067142498671"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Wow&nbsp;","listText":"Wow&nbsp;","text":"Wow","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9918288363","repostId":"2271563867","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"2271563867","kind":"highlight","pubTimestamp":1664407324,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/2271563867?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2022-09-29 07:22","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"Liquidity tightness is back! One of the most important indicators of the whole market turns red light","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2271563867","media":"华尔街见闻","summary":"FRA-OIS利差最近已超过七个月前西方对俄制裁引发流动性危机时的水平。FRA-OIS是连美联储鲍威尔都在密切关注其每次上升的重要压力指标。","content":"<p><html><head></head><body>One of the most important indicators of financing tightness in the interbank market and money market risk-the FRA-OIS spread has soared again, setting a red light on tight liquidity.</p><p>The FRA-OIS spread has recently widened to more than 37 basis points, exceeding the level during the liquidity crisis seven months ago, which was caused by Western sanctions against Russia after the Russia-Ukraine conflict in February this year.<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e0823d6d2f6764f57df19f44aec331c8\" tg-width=\"835\" tg-height=\"521\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/601995\">CICC</a>Recent articles by overseas research teams also pointed out that in the past week, the FRA-OIS spread rose to 30 basis points, exceeding the average level since 2008. CICC predicts that in the short term, the global dollar liquidity tightening and the reduction of \"cheap money\" will be difficult to effectively alleviate, and a new round of chain reaction fluctuations will not be ruled out.<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ea7c4071adfce518cb3709508c5cc96b\" tg-width=\"539\" tg-height=\"418\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/>The full name of FRA is Forward Rate Agreement. The key interest rate of FRA in the United States refers to the three-month London Interbank Offered Rate (Libor) in US dollars. The benchmark stems from interest rates submitted by big banks based on a number of transactions compiled against benchmarks established for five different currencies over seven different loan periods. These benchmarks underpin interest rates on trillions of dollars of financial instruments and products, ranging from student loans to auto loans to home mortgages and credit cards.</p><p>The full name of OIS is overnight index swap, or overnight index swap. It is calculated based on contracts where investors exchange fixed-rate and floating-rate cash flows. Some of the most commonly used swap rates are related to the Federal Reserve's main interest rate targets, which are seen as proxy for the direction of market expectations for the Federal Reserve's policy at different periods in the future.</p><p>Why are FRA-OIS spreads important? Because it is regarded as the market's indicator of how expensive or cheaper bank borrowings will be in the future compared with risk-free interest rates, such as the US Treasury Bond interest rate. Therefore, the FRA-OIS spread can reveal how the market views the credit profile, because traders are betting on Libor-OIS and how big or small its implied spread will be.</p><p>When talking about the liquidity crisis behind the commodity earthquake in early March this year, Wall Street mentioned that when the FRA-OIS spread rose sharply, it meant that banks and their peers were unwilling to sell liquidity to the market, which brought about the premium and dryness of the financing market.</p><p>Financial blog Zerohedge pointed out that at the peak of the COVID-19 pandemic crisis in March 2020, the FRA-OIS spread rose to 80 basis points, and the current spread is only half of that year. However, the current balance sheet size of the Federal Reserve is close to US $9 trillion, overnight The scale of reverse repurchase tools is about US $2.3 trillion. Under such circumstances, the pressure on financing has actually reached unprecedented levels.</p><p>In other words, if adjusted for fiat levels of market liquidity, which are already at record highs, the FRA-OIS spread will almost certainly be at an all-time high.</p><p>Some people may say that Fed officials, including Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell, may not pay much attention to the continued sharp decline in U.S. stocks because they feel that the stock market is overvalued and has enough buffers for the decline, but Zerohedge showed the following picture in March this year, Powell is paying close attention to every rise in FRA-OIS, the most important pressure indicator.</p><p>Zerohedge also explained that there are usually three reasons for the surge in FRA-OIS spreads: first, the risk premium of U.S. monetary policy uncertainty; Second, bank credit spreads have been high recently; Third, there is a demand for funds due to market pressure.</p><p>The pressure on the market has never been greater since the Federal Reserve resorted to extraordinary easing measures in response to the market liquidity crisis triggered by the epidemic in 2020. So Zerohedge expects to hear more news similar to the Fed's bailout in the coming days and weeks. If the FRA-OIS spread rises another 10 to 15 points, the Fed will have no choice but to reassure the market that the financial system will not be paralyzed again.</p><p></body></html></p>","source":"wallstreetcn_api","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Liquidity tightness is back! One of the most important indicators of the whole market turns red light</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nLiquidity tightness is back! One of the most important indicators of the whole market turns red light\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">华尔街见闻</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2022-09-29 07:22</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><html><head></head><body>One of the most important indicators of financing tightness in the interbank market and money market risk-the FRA-OIS spread has soared again, setting a red light on tight liquidity.</p><p>The FRA-OIS spread has recently widened to more than 37 basis points, exceeding the level during the liquidity crisis seven months ago, which was caused by Western sanctions against Russia after the Russia-Ukraine conflict in February this year.<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e0823d6d2f6764f57df19f44aec331c8\" tg-width=\"835\" tg-height=\"521\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/601995\">CICC</a>Recent articles by overseas research teams also pointed out that in the past week, the FRA-OIS spread rose to 30 basis points, exceeding the average level since 2008. CICC predicts that in the short term, the global dollar liquidity tightening and the reduction of \"cheap money\" will be difficult to effectively alleviate, and a new round of chain reaction fluctuations will not be ruled out.<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ea7c4071adfce518cb3709508c5cc96b\" tg-width=\"539\" tg-height=\"418\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/>The full name of FRA is Forward Rate Agreement. The key interest rate of FRA in the United States refers to the three-month London Interbank Offered Rate (Libor) in US dollars. The benchmark stems from interest rates submitted by big banks based on a number of transactions compiled against benchmarks established for five different currencies over seven different loan periods. These benchmarks underpin interest rates on trillions of dollars of financial instruments and products, ranging from student loans to auto loans to home mortgages and credit cards.</p><p>The full name of OIS is overnight index swap, or overnight index swap. It is calculated based on contracts where investors exchange fixed-rate and floating-rate cash flows. Some of the most commonly used swap rates are related to the Federal Reserve's main interest rate targets, which are seen as proxy for the direction of market expectations for the Federal Reserve's policy at different periods in the future.</p><p>Why are FRA-OIS spreads important? Because it is regarded as the market's indicator of how expensive or cheaper bank borrowings will be in the future compared with risk-free interest rates, such as the US Treasury Bond interest rate. Therefore, the FRA-OIS spread can reveal how the market views the credit profile, because traders are betting on Libor-OIS and how big or small its implied spread will be.</p><p>When talking about the liquidity crisis behind the commodity earthquake in early March this year, Wall Street mentioned that when the FRA-OIS spread rose sharply, it meant that banks and their peers were unwilling to sell liquidity to the market, which brought about the premium and dryness of the financing market.</p><p>Financial blog Zerohedge pointed out that at the peak of the COVID-19 pandemic crisis in March 2020, the FRA-OIS spread rose to 80 basis points, and the current spread is only half of that year. However, the current balance sheet size of the Federal Reserve is close to US $9 trillion, overnight The scale of reverse repurchase tools is about US $2.3 trillion. Under such circumstances, the pressure on financing has actually reached unprecedented levels.</p><p>In other words, if adjusted for fiat levels of market liquidity, which are already at record highs, the FRA-OIS spread will almost certainly be at an all-time high.</p><p>Some people may say that Fed officials, including Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell, may not pay much attention to the continued sharp decline in U.S. stocks because they feel that the stock market is overvalued and has enough buffers for the decline, but Zerohedge showed the following picture in March this year, Powell is paying close attention to every rise in FRA-OIS, the most important pressure indicator.</p><p>Zerohedge also explained that there are usually three reasons for the surge in FRA-OIS spreads: first, the risk premium of U.S. monetary policy uncertainty; Second, bank credit spreads have been high recently; Third, there is a demand for funds due to market pressure.</p><p>The pressure on the market has never been greater since the Federal Reserve resorted to extraordinary easing measures in response to the market liquidity crisis triggered by the epidemic in 2020. So Zerohedge expects to hear more news similar to the Fed's bailout in the coming days and weeks. If the FRA-OIS spread rises another 10 to 15 points, the Fed will have no choice but to reassure the market that the financial system will not be paralyzed again.</p><p></body></html></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> source：<a href=\"https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3671451\">华尔街见闻</a></p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/878b28b0b765c935309aa0970e07b3f5","relate_stocks":{"161125":"标普500","513500":"标普500ETF博时","SQQQ":"纳指三倍做空ETF","OEF":"标普100指数ETF-iShares","UPRO":"三倍做多标普500ETF-ProShares","BK4534":"瑞士信贷持仓","IVV":"标普500ETF-iShares","DXD":"两倍做空道琼30指数ETF-ProShares","SPXU":"三倍做空标普500ETF-ProShares","QID":"两倍做空纳斯达克指数ETF-ProShares","SSO":"2倍做多标普500ETF-ProShares","DOG":"道指ETF-ProShares做空","TQQQ":"纳指三倍做多ETF",".DJI":"道琼斯",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index","BK4504":"桥水持仓","PSQ":"做空纳斯达克100指数ETF-ProShares","BK4559":"巴菲特持仓","SPY":"标普500ETF","DDM":"2倍做多道指ETF-ProShares","BK4550":"红杉资本持仓","SH":"做空标普500-Proshares","QQQ":"纳指100ETF","SDOW":"三倍做空道指30ETF-ProShares",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite","DJX":"1/100道琼斯","UDOW":"三倍做多道指30ETF-ProShares","SDS":"两倍做空标普500 ETF-ProShares","BK4581":"高盛持仓","QLD":"2倍做多纳斯达克100指数ETF-ProShares","OEX":"标普100"},"source_url":"https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3671451","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2271563867","content_text":"体现银行间市场融资紧张状况以及货币市场风险的最重要指标之一——FRA-OIS利差再次飙升，亮起了流动性吃紧的红灯。FRA-OIS利差最近扩大到37个基点以上，已经超过七个月前的流动性危机时期水平，当时的危机是因今年2月俄乌冲突后西方对俄制裁而造成。中金公司海外研究团队最近的文章也指出，过去一周，FRA-OIS利差抬升至30个基点，超过2008年以来均值水平。中金预计，短期内，全球美元流动性收紧和“便宜钱”减少难以有效缓解，不排除会出现新一轮连锁反应的波动。FRA全称远期利率协议。FRA这种关键利率在美国参考的是，以美元为单位的三个月期伦敦银行同业拆借利率（Libor）。该基准源于大银行基于一些交易提交的利率，这些交易根据七个不同贷款期内为五种不同货币建立的基准而编制。这些基准支撑着数万亿美元金融工具和产品的利率，既有涉及学生贷款、汽车贷款，又涉及住房抵押贷款和信用卡。OIS全称隔夜指数互换、或称隔夜指数掉期。它根据投资者交换固定利率和浮动利率现金流的合约计算得出。一些最常用的互换利率与美联储的主要利率目标有关，这些利率被视为市场预期美联储未来不同时期政策走向的代表。FRA-OIS利差为什么很重要？因为它被视为市场衡量银行未来借款相比无风险利率、如美国国债利率有多贵或多便宜的指标。因此，FRA-OIS利差能透露，市场如何看待信用状况，因为交易员在押注Libor-OIS、其隐含利差会有多大或多小。华尔街见闻今年3月初在谈到大宗商品巨震背后的流动性危机时就提到，当FRA-OIS利差大幅上扬时，代表银行及其同业不愿意向市场出让流动性，由此即带来融资市场的溢价和干涸。金融博客Zerohedge指出，2020年3月新冠疫情危机的高峰期，FRA-OIS利差曾升至80个基点，目前利差只有当年的一半，但目前美联储的资产负债表规模接近9万亿美元、隔夜逆回购工具规模约2.3万亿美元，在这种情况下看，融资的压力实际上已达到前所未有的水平。换句话说，如果根据已处于纪录高位的市场流动性法定水平进行调整，FRA-OIS利差几乎肯定会处于历史最高水平。有人可能会说，包括美联储主席鲍威尔在内的联储官员可能没有太看重美股持续大跌，因为他们觉得股市被高估，有足够的下跌缓冲，但Zerohedge今年3月就展示了以下图片显示，鲍威尔在密切关注FRA-OIS这一最重要的压力指标每次上升。Zerohedge还解释说，FRA-OIS利差飙升通常有三种原因：一是美国货币政策不确定性的风险溢价；二是最近银行信用利差高企；三是针对市场压力未雨绸缪而出现资金需求。自美联储为2020年疫情引发市场流动性危机而祭出超常规宽松举措以来，市场的压力从未像现在这么大。因此Zerohedge预计，未来几天和几周会听到更多类似美联储救市的消息。如果FRA-OIS利差再升10到15个点，美联储将别无选择，只能安抚市场保证金融系统不会再来一次瘫痪。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"161125":0.6,"513500":0.6,"UDOW":0.6,"MNQmain":0.6,"NQmain":0.6,"TQQQ":0.6,"QQQ":0.6,"SDS":0.6,"SSO":0.6,"DXD":0.6,"SQQQ":0.6,"DJX":0.6,"DOG":0.6,"ESmain":0.6,"QLD":0.6,"OEX":0.6,"SPXU":0.6,"DDM":0.6,".DJI":0.9,"IVV":0.6,"SH":0.6,"PSQ":0.6,"SPY":0.9,"QID":0.6,".SPX":0.6,"OEF":0.6,"SDOW":0.6,"UPRO":0.6,".IXIC":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1239,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9911430033,"gmtCreate":1664241093922,"gmtModify":1676537416186,"author":{"id":"3575067142498671","authorId":"3575067142498671","name":"JWZ137","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/842968796125e5a418b21a3b4ab603ef","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3575067142498671","idStr":"3575067142498671"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Wow&nbsp;","listText":"Wow&nbsp;","text":"Wow","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9911430033","repostId":"2270261360","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"2270261360","kind":"highlight","pubTimestamp":1664238289,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/2270261360?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2022-09-27 08:24","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"British tax cuts, senior Fed officials \"can't stand it\"","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2270261360","media":"华尔街见闻","summary":"亚特兰大联储主席Raphael Bostic称，英国的减税计划“确实增加了不确定性，并确实让人们对英国经济产生质疑”。","content":"<p><html><head></head><body>The British government's huge tax reduction plan has made<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/600558\">Atlantic</a>The United States on the other side can't stand it anymore.</p><p>On Monday, Atlanta Fed President Raphael Bostic said the UK's tax cuts \"do increase uncertainty and do raise questions about the UK economy.\"</p><p>Asked if the UK's tax cuts and the resulting volatility would raise the likelihood that the world economy will fall into recession, Bostic said \"it won't help\":</p><p>A basic principle of economics is that more uncertainty leads to less engagement among consumers and businesses. The key question will be what this policy means for ultimately weakening the European economy, an important consideration of how the US economy will perform. Last week, Chancellor of the Exchequer Kwasi Kwarteng announced Britain's most radical tax cuts in almost 50 years, claiming it was a \"new era\" for the UK economy. The plan includes abolishing the highest income tax rate applicable only to high-income people, and reducing income tax and home stamp duty. At the same time, the previous plan to increase corporate income tax will also be shelved. He believes that Britain needs a major policy shift to stimulate economic growth.</p><p>However, after the tax reduction plan was released, it triggered three kills of \"stocks, bonds and exchanges\" in the UK.</p><p>The main reason why the market doesn't buy this is that tax cuts will increase the fiscal deficit and aggravate the market's concerns about Britain's \"fiscal dominance\" and inflation risks. History shows that \"fiscal dominance\" will weaken the credibility of the central bank, eventually leading to high inflation or even hyperinflation.</p><p>Bostic's comments come after Boston Fed President Susan Collins warned that external shocks could tip the U.S. economy into a recession:</p><p>With further policy tightening, significant economic or geopolitical events could push our economy into a recession. Furthermore, adjusting policies in this case will become complicated because some effects of monetary policy on economic activity will lag. Regarding U.S. inflation, Collins said:</p><p>Inflation is likely to be close to peaking, and may have peaked. Also on Monday, Cleveland Fed President Loretta Mester spoke about the global impact of the Fed's aggressive monetary policy tightening, which has driven the dollar's sharp appreciation against global currencies:</p><p>We will make monetary policies that are appropriate for the American economy, but we will not think that we are an island that has no connection to the rest of the world. With inflation at multi-decade highs, now is not the time to worry about the risk of going too far in tightening monetary policy. Wishful thinking is no substitute for convincing evidence. So before I conclude that inflation has peaked, I need to see months of decline in month-on-month readings. These three are the first top Fed officials to speak publicly since last week, when the central bank issued its third consecutive 75 basis point rate hike and signaled further sharp rate hike ahead.</p><p>Most Fed officials believe Federal Funds rate will rise to 4.4% by year-end before peaking at 4.6% in 2023.</p><p></body></html></p>","source":"wallstreetcn_api","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>British tax cuts, senior Fed officials \"can't stand it\"</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nBritish tax cuts, senior Fed officials \"can't stand it\"\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">华尔街见闻</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2022-09-27 08:24</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><html><head></head><body>The British government's huge tax reduction plan has made<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/600558\">Atlantic</a>The United States on the other side can't stand it anymore.</p><p>On Monday, Atlanta Fed President Raphael Bostic said the UK's tax cuts \"do increase uncertainty and do raise questions about the UK economy.\"</p><p>Asked if the UK's tax cuts and the resulting volatility would raise the likelihood that the world economy will fall into recession, Bostic said \"it won't help\":</p><p>A basic principle of economics is that more uncertainty leads to less engagement among consumers and businesses. The key question will be what this policy means for ultimately weakening the European economy, an important consideration of how the US economy will perform. Last week, Chancellor of the Exchequer Kwasi Kwarteng announced Britain's most radical tax cuts in almost 50 years, claiming it was a \"new era\" for the UK economy. The plan includes abolishing the highest income tax rate applicable only to high-income people, and reducing income tax and home stamp duty. At the same time, the previous plan to increase corporate income tax will also be shelved. He believes that Britain needs a major policy shift to stimulate economic growth.</p><p>However, after the tax reduction plan was released, it triggered three kills of \"stocks, bonds and exchanges\" in the UK.</p><p>The main reason why the market doesn't buy this is that tax cuts will increase the fiscal deficit and aggravate the market's concerns about Britain's \"fiscal dominance\" and inflation risks. History shows that \"fiscal dominance\" will weaken the credibility of the central bank, eventually leading to high inflation or even hyperinflation.</p><p>Bostic's comments come after Boston Fed President Susan Collins warned that external shocks could tip the U.S. economy into a recession:</p><p>With further policy tightening, significant economic or geopolitical events could push our economy into a recession. Furthermore, adjusting policies in this case will become complicated because some effects of monetary policy on economic activity will lag. Regarding U.S. inflation, Collins said:</p><p>Inflation is likely to be close to peaking, and may have peaked. Also on Monday, Cleveland Fed President Loretta Mester spoke about the global impact of the Fed's aggressive monetary policy tightening, which has driven the dollar's sharp appreciation against global currencies:</p><p>We will make monetary policies that are appropriate for the American economy, but we will not think that we are an island that has no connection to the rest of the world. With inflation at multi-decade highs, now is not the time to worry about the risk of going too far in tightening monetary policy. Wishful thinking is no substitute for convincing evidence. So before I conclude that inflation has peaked, I need to see months of decline in month-on-month readings. These three are the first top Fed officials to speak publicly since last week, when the central bank issued its third consecutive 75 basis point rate hike and signaled further sharp rate hike ahead.</p><p>Most Fed officials believe Federal Funds rate will rise to 4.4% by year-end before peaking at 4.6% in 2023.</p><p></body></html></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> source：<a href=\"https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3671240\">华尔街见闻</a></p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2b146d2187221c333892d4184d261a2f","relate_stocks":{"161125":"标普500","513500":"标普500ETF博时","IVV":"标普500ETF-iShares","BK4534":"瑞士信贷持仓","DXD":"两倍做空道琼30指数ETF-ProShares","SPXU":"三倍做空标普500ETF-ProShares","QID":"两倍做空纳斯达克指数ETF-ProShares","SSO":"2倍做多标普500ETF-ProShares","DOG":"道指ETF-ProShares做空","TQQQ":"纳指三倍做多ETF","PSQ":"做空纳斯达克100指数ETF-ProShares","BK4559":"巴菲特持仓","BK4504":"桥水持仓","SPY":"标普500ETF","DDM":"2倍做多道指ETF-ProShares",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index","BK4550":"红杉资本持仓","SH":"做空标普500-Proshares","QQQ":"纳指100ETF",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite","SDOW":"三倍做空道指30ETF-ProShares",".DJI":"道琼斯","OEX":"标普100","UDOW":"三倍做多道指30ETF-ProShares","SDS":"两倍做空标普500 ETF-ProShares","BK4581":"高盛持仓","QLD":"2倍做多纳斯达克100指数ETF-ProShares","DJX":"1/100道琼斯","OEF":"标普100指数ETF-iShares","SQQQ":"纳指三倍做空ETF","UPRO":"三倍做多标普500ETF-ProShares"},"source_url":"https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3671240","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2270261360","content_text":"英国政府庞大的减税计划，令大西洋彼岸的美国，都有点看不下去了。周一，亚特兰大联储主席Raphael Bostic称，英国的减税计划“确实增加了不确定性，并确实让人们对英国经济产生质疑”。当被问及英国的减税计划和由此产生的波动是否会增加世界经济陷入衰退的可能性时，Bostic说“这无济于事”：经济学的一个基本原则是，更多的不确定性会导致消费者和企业的参与度降低。关键问题将是，这一政策对最终削弱欧洲经济意味着什么，这是美国经济将如何表现的重要考虑因素。上周，英国财政大臣Kwasi Kwarteng宣布英国近50年来最激进的减税方案，声称这是英国经济的一个“新时代”。方案包括取消仅适用于高收入人群的最高所得税税率，并降低收入所得税和置业印花税，同时先前提升企业所得税的计划亦将搁置。他认为，英国需要一次重大政策转向，来刺激经济增长。但是该减税计划出炉后，引发英国“股债汇”三杀。市场之所以对此不买账，主要原因在于减税会增加财政赤字，加剧市场对英国“财政主导”和通胀风险的担忧。历史表明“财政主导”会削弱央行的信誉度，最终引发高通胀乃至恶性通胀。Bostic发表上述言论之前，波士顿联储主席Susan Collins警告称，外部冲击可能使美国经济陷入衰退：随着政策进一步收紧，重大的经济或地缘事件可能将我们的经济推入衰退。此外，在这种情况下调整政策将变得复杂，因为货币政策对经济活动的某些影响会滞后。关于美国的通胀，Collins称：通胀很可能接近见顶，而且可能已经见顶。同样在周一，克利夫兰联储主席Loretta Mester谈到了美联储积极收紧货币政策的全球影响，这推动了美元兑全球货币的大幅升值：我们将制定适合美国经济的货币政策，但我们不会认为我们是一个和世界其他地方没有联系的岛屿。在通胀处于数十年高位的情况下，现在不是担心在收紧货币政策方面做得过火的风险的时候。一厢情愿的想法不能代替令人信服的证据。因此，在我得出通胀已经见顶的结论之前，我需要看到环比读数会连续几个月下降。自上周美联储连续第三次加息75个基点并暗示未来将进一步大幅加息以来，这三位是第一批发表公开言论的美联储高级官员。大多数美联储官员认为，联邦基金利率到年底将升至4.4%，然后在2023年达到4.6%的峰值。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"161125":0.6,"513500":0.6,"DJX":0.6,"UPRO":0.6,"NQmain":0.6,"DDM":0.6,"SQQQ":0.6,"PSQ":0.6,"OEF":0.6,".IXIC":1,"SSO":0.6,"SPY":1,"QID":0.6,"DXD":0.6,"TQQQ":0.6,".DJI":1,"MNQmain":0.6,"QQQ":0.6,"SH":0.6,"SDS":0.6,".SPX":0.6,"OEX":0.6,"ESmain":0.6,"UDOW":0.6,"SPXU":0.6,"SDOW":0.6,"IVV":0.6,"QLD":0.6,"DOG":0.6}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1551,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0}],"hots":[{"id":9094793968,"gmtCreate":1645232541723,"gmtModify":1676534011006,"author":{"id":"3575067142498671","authorId":"3575067142498671","name":"JWZ137","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/842968796125e5a418b21a3b4ab603ef","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3575067142498671","idStr":"3575067142498671"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Great","listText":"Great","text":"Great","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9094793968","repostId":"1157712278","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1157712278","kind":"news","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"为用户提供金融资讯、行情、数据，旨在帮助投资者理解世界，做投资决策。","home_visible":1,"media_name":"老虎资讯综合","id":"102","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba"},"pubTimestamp":1645065627,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1157712278?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2022-02-17 10:40","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"Reminder: U.S. stocks will be closed for one day on February 21 for Washington's birthday","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1157712278","media":"老虎资讯综合","summary":"2月21日（周一）是美国的华盛顿诞辰纪念日，美国包括股市和债市在内的金融市场将休市一天。2月22日（周二）美股恢复正常交易。港股、A股、英股、澳股、新加坡照常开市。背景简介：华盛顿诞辰纪念日俗称总统日","content":"<p><html><head></head><body>February 21st (Monday) is the anniversary of Washington's birth in the United States, and financial markets in the United States, including the stock market and bond market, will be closed for one day. U.S. stocks resumed normal trading on February 22 (Tuesday).</p><p>Hong Kong stocks, A-shares, British stocks, Australian stocks, and Singapore opened as usual.</p><p><b>Background brief:</b></p><p>Washington's birthday is commonly known as President's Day</p><p>In 1879, a bill passed by the United States Congress decided to make Washington's birthday a federal holiday for the first time. The Monday Holiday Act, which came into effect in 1968, moved the anniversary of Washington's birth from February 22nd every year to the third Monday in February. However, including this bill, there is no legal provision in the United States so far to officially change the name \"Washington's Birthday Anniversary\" to what is now better known as \"President's Day\". The situation among the people is different. More and more Americans have called the third Monday in February \"President's Day\".</p><p>George Washington profile:</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/65cb9e79983f7b49037bed99be2c34a2\" tg-width=\"450\" tg-height=\"547\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>One of the most common portraits of George Washington</p><p>Washington's full name is George Washington (February 22, 1732-December 14, 1799). He served as the commander-in-chief of the Continental Army during the American Revolutionary War from 1775 to 1783. In 1789, he became the first president of the United States (and also became the first head of state in the world with the title of \"President\"). In two successive presidential elections, he won the unanimous support of all electoral colleges, and served as president of the United States until 1797.</p><p>In 1787, he presided over the Constitutional Convention of the United States, which formulated the basic framework of the present American Constitution. During his two terms, he established many policies and traditions of the United States that continue to this day. After the end of two terms, he voluntarily gave up his power and did not renew his term, establishing the tradition that the president of the United States serves no more than two terms.</p><p>After that, Washington returned to civilian life and lived in seclusion at Mount Vernon Manor. Because he played the most important role in the American Revolution and the founding process, Washington is often called the founding father of the United States. Most American scholars generally rank him along with Abraham Lincoln as one of the greatest presidents in American history.</p><p></body></html></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Reminder: U.S. stocks will be closed for one day on February 21 for Washington's birthday</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nReminder: U.S. stocks will be closed for one day on February 21 for Washington's birthday\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/102\">\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">老虎资讯综合 </p>\n<p class=\"h-time smaller\">2022-02-17 10:40</p>\n</div>\n</a>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><html><head></head><body>February 21st (Monday) is the anniversary of Washington's birth in the United States, and financial markets in the United States, including the stock market and bond market, will be closed for one day. U.S. stocks resumed normal trading on February 22 (Tuesday).</p><p>Hong Kong stocks, A-shares, British stocks, Australian stocks, and Singapore opened as usual.</p><p><b>Background brief:</b></p><p>Washington's birthday is commonly known as President's Day</p><p>In 1879, a bill passed by the United States Congress decided to make Washington's birthday a federal holiday for the first time. The Monday Holiday Act, which came into effect in 1968, moved the anniversary of Washington's birth from February 22nd every year to the third Monday in February. However, including this bill, there is no legal provision in the United States so far to officially change the name \"Washington's Birthday Anniversary\" to what is now better known as \"President's Day\". The situation among the people is different. More and more Americans have called the third Monday in February \"President's Day\".</p><p>George Washington profile:</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/65cb9e79983f7b49037bed99be2c34a2\" tg-width=\"450\" tg-height=\"547\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>One of the most common portraits of George Washington</p><p>Washington's full name is George Washington (February 22, 1732-December 14, 1799). He served as the commander-in-chief of the Continental Army during the American Revolutionary War from 1775 to 1783. In 1789, he became the first president of the United States (and also became the first head of state in the world with the title of \"President\"). In two successive presidential elections, he won the unanimous support of all electoral colleges, and served as president of the United States until 1797.</p><p>In 1787, he presided over the Constitutional Convention of the United States, which formulated the basic framework of the present American Constitution. During his two terms, he established many policies and traditions of the United States that continue to this day. After the end of two terms, he voluntarily gave up his power and did not renew his term, establishing the tradition that the president of the United States serves no more than two terms.</p><p>After that, Washington returned to civilian life and lived in seclusion at Mount Vernon Manor. Because he played the most important role in the American Revolution and the founding process, Washington is often called the founding father of the United States. Most American scholars generally rank him along with Abraham Lincoln as one of the greatest presidents in American history.</p><p></body></html></p>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/65cb9e79983f7b49037bed99be2c34a2","relate_stocks":{".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite",".DJI":"道琼斯",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index"},"source_url":"","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1157712278","content_text":"2月21日（周一）是美国的华盛顿诞辰纪念日，美国包括股市和债市在内的金融市场将休市一天。2月22日（周二）美股恢复正常交易。港股、A股、英股、澳股、新加坡照常开市。背景简介：华盛顿诞辰纪念日俗称总统日1879年美国国会通过的一项法案首次决定将华盛顿诞辰列为联邦节日。1968年生效的《周一节假日法》则将华盛顿诞辰纪念日从每年的2月22日移到2月的第3个周一。但是，包括这一法案在内，美国迄今没有任何法律规定将“华盛顿诞辰纪念日”这一名称正式改为现在更为人所知的“总统日”。民间情况则有所不同，越来越多的美国人已将2月的第3个周一称为“总统日”。乔治-华盛顿简介：乔治-华盛顿最为常见的画像之一华盛顿全名乔治-华盛顿（英文George Washington，1732年2月22日-1799年12月14日），1775至1783年美国独立战争时他任大陆军总司令，1789年成为美国第一任总统（同时也成为全世界首位以“总统”为称号的国家元首），在接连两次总统选举中他都获得了全体选举团无异议的一致支持，一直担任美国总统直至1797年。1787年他主持美国制宪会议，制定了现在美国宪法的基本框架。他在两届任期中设立了美国许多延续至今的政策和传统。两届任期结束后，他自愿放弃权力不再续任，确立了美国总统任期不超过两届的传统。此后华盛顿回复平民生活，隐居在弗农山庄园。由于他在美国独立战争和建国过程中扮演了最重要角色，华盛顿通常被称为美国国父。美国多数学者一般将他和亚伯拉罕-林肯等并列为美国历史上最伟大的总统之一。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{".IXIC":0.9,".SPX":0.9,".DJI":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":584,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9020229849,"gmtCreate":1652659480581,"gmtModify":1676535134067,"author":{"id":"3575067142498671","authorId":"3575067142498671","name":"JWZ137","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/842968796125e5a418b21a3b4ab603ef","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3575067142498671","idStr":"3575067142498671"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Great","listText":"Great","text":"Great","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9020229849","repostId":"1172408333","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":877,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9039307926,"gmtCreate":1645919366340,"gmtModify":1676534073945,"author":{"id":"3575067142498671","authorId":"3575067142498671","name":"JWZ137","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/842968796125e5a418b21a3b4ab603ef","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3575067142498671","idStr":"3575067142498671"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Wow","listText":"Wow","text":"Wow","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":5,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9039307926","repostId":"2214180192","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"2214180192","kind":"highlight","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"经济观察报官方账号","home_visible":1,"media_name":"经济观察报","id":"1014835943","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/53947f6c3e232c366cc0bd0fd311397d"},"pubTimestamp":1645859010,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/2214180192?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2022-02-26 15:03","market":"hk","language":"zh","title":"Chinese faces in Ukraine, how are they doing now","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2214180192","media":"经济观察报","summary":"留学并留在乌克兰的中国人不在少数。","content":"<p><div>(Photo source: Oriental IC) Reporter: Xie Chuchu Song Di evacuated At around 6 a.m. local time on February 24, Roland was awakened by the sound of a phone call. Her friend told her that the war had begun and told her to evacuate Kiev. She quickly told her family to get up and pack their clothes and bags, and ran to the west with a few students. On February 24, Beijing time, Russian President Vladimir Putin decided to conduct military operations in Donbas. On the same day, explosions were heard in Kiev, the capital of Ukraine, and other cities. Just as Roland was loading his luggage in the trunk, a military plane roared overhead. Roland was shocked and hurriedly set off on his way. \"This is the closest I've ever been to a war.\"...</p><p><a href=\"\">Web link</a></div></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Chinese faces in Ukraine, how are they doing now</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nChinese faces in Ukraine, how are they doing now\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/1014835943\">\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/53947f6c3e232c366cc0bd0fd311397d);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">经济观察报 </p>\n<p class=\"h-time smaller\">2022-02-26 15:03</p>\n</div>\n</a>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><div>(Photo source: Oriental IC) Reporter: Xie Chuchu Song Di evacuated At around 6 a.m. local time on February 24, Roland was awakened by the sound of a phone call. Her friend told her that the war had begun and told her to evacuate Kiev. She quickly told her family to get up and pack their clothes and bags, and ran to the west with a few students. On February 24, Beijing time, Russian President Vladimir Putin decided to conduct military operations in Donbas. On the same day, explosions were heard in Kiev, the capital of Ukraine, and other cities. Just as Roland was loading his luggage in the trunk, a military plane roared overhead. Roland was shocked and hurriedly set off on his way. \"This is the closest I've ever been to a war.\"...</p><p><a href=\"\">Web link</a></div></p>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1b6f0ea65681c95c05fc970eb3496d5d","relate_stocks":{"000001.SH":"上证指数"},"source_url":"","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2214180192","content_text":"（图片来源：东方IC）记者：谢楚楚 宋笛撤离当地时间2月24日早上6点多，罗兰被电话声吵醒，朋友告诉她战争开始了，让她最好撤离基辅。她赶紧叫家人起来收拾衣服、打包行李，带着几个学生，奔往西部。北京时间2月24日，俄罗斯总统普京决定在顿巴斯进行军事行动，同日，乌克兰首都基辅等城市传出爆炸声。就在罗兰往后备箱装行李时，一架军事飞机从头顶轰鸣而过，罗兰心中一惊，赶忙启程上路。“这是我离战争最近的一次。”罗兰说。小心翼翼，一路向西，罗兰看到了坦克部队在对面逆向而过，沿途的加油站排起了长队，“只能付现金”。直到当晚抵达位于乌克兰西北部的罗夫诺州，罗兰才安顿下来，四周静悄悄的，没有了枪炮的声音，但一家人依然睡得心惊胆战。罗兰对战争的爆发早有预期，经历过2014年乌克兰革命的罗兰颇具警觉性，此前数天，她就已经把家里的护照和文件收拾妥当，并储备了一定的食物和生活用品。与警觉的罗兰不同，一些在乌华人没有选择逃离基辅。一位在乌克兰从事医药贸易的华人告诉经济观察报，她昨晚一夜没睡，躲在防空洞里，一直到2月25日下午才敢回家中收拾东西，准备撤侨回国。截稿前，这位华人又回到地下车库躲避，当地已经实行宵禁，因为车库信号不好，她在出车库临时回复国内长辈信息时才抽空告知记者她的现状，随后又匆匆赶回车库。2月22日，中国驻乌克兰大使馆网站发出了一份请中国公民注意安全的提醒，提醒中提及“乌克兰东部局势发生重大变化”，2月24日又一次发布该提醒；2月25日，大使馆发布紧急通知请拟自乌克兰撤离中国公民进行登记，通知表示为准备分批包机接返有关事宜，现开始人员登记。搭乘包机根据自愿原则。包机派出时间根据飞行安全情况确定，届时将提前通知。李牧之已经下定决心，不打算撤离，他还不清楚大使馆会怎样安排相关人员，比如资费、隔离政策等，他觉得如果要隔离“14+7”天，那还不如留在这里。李牧之乐观地判断，目前局势不太会影响到普通老百姓和居民，回国的必要性不大。李牧之是一位赴乌克兰留学的中国学生。2月24日凌晨四五点左右，睡梦中的李牧之被国内亲戚朋友频繁发来的信息轰炸至醒。在亲戚朋友口中得知俄罗斯将对乌克兰发起军事攻击之后，他决定下楼看看具体情况，因为他并没有听到任何大的动静。李牧之住在距离基辅市中心不远的地方。当地时间24日下午，李牧之来到基辅市中心街道，发现一些媒体在做采访，街上人变少了，除了卖衣服的大型商场、KFC、麦当劳等饮食餐厅关门之外，大型超市、医院、银行、药店未关门。但各个地方都需要排队。在前往市中心了解情况时，李牧之发现地铁是免费开放的，地铁上能看到一些人已经打包好行李准备离开，周边社区出现了少数穿制服的警察，但未看到士兵。他听说，基辅有些人选择了去其他城市避难，有些人选择了在防空洞里面睡觉。“但我们就在家待着，绝大多数人还是在家里待着”。王旭就是在家呆着的其中一位，他在乌克兰的哈尔科夫市，“炮弹不长眼，也不知道安全不安全”，在截稿前一个半小时，还发生了一场持续两三分钟的空袭，王旭赶紧把食物转移到车库内，地下车库聚集了很多邻居。此外，乌克兰已经进入战争状态，按照当地法律，军队有权征用车辆，王旭也不打算去其他的城市，“最好还是呆在家里”。李牧之的一位朋友住在敖德萨，这也是俄军所涉之处。听闻局势动荡，李牧之的朋友也拿起了单反相机外出拍摄记录。他告诉李牧之，外面一切安好。生计与生活直到2月24日，王旭觉得在乌克兰的一切都在正常进行，尽管与俄罗斯矛盾已经持续了若干年。2007年，王旭来到乌克兰留学，因为“当地的留学费用毕竟低一些”，毕业后，王旭留在了一家中国企业的乌克兰分公司，从事机床零件贸易，主要做的是俄语区的贸易。他的妻子是乌克兰人，哈尔科夫是一座“说大不大，说小不小”的城市，上班之外，周末的时间就是和朋友聚会，在附近的商场转一转。像王旭这样，留学并留在乌克兰的中国人不在少数。2009年，因为家里企业和乌克兰有合作，罗兰来到乌克兰留学，毕业后留在了当地，与一名中国留学生相识相爱，走入婚姻。罗兰对教育很感兴趣，在大学毕业后，罗兰和朋友因缘际会下创业，做了一家留学机构，这两年公司发展还不错。目前，罗兰一家在基辅买了房和车，两个孩子也在基辅上学，一个5岁，一个3岁，一家人保持中国国籍。疫情之前，他们一年回中国一到两次，疫情后回国不太方便。战争打响后，罗兰被朋友拉入一些华人互助群，群里互相交换信息提供帮助，比如有人会报安全的防空洞地址，有人要去西部，车上还有空位会在群里问有没有人要拼车。据中国驻乌克兰大使馆发布的信息，在乌中国公民约6000人，包括中资企业、留学生和华侨等，主要分布在基辅、利沃夫、哈尔科夫、敖德萨和苏梅等地。2019年，李牧之曾赴乌克兰旅游，2021年6月底再次来到乌克兰留学，虽然这个国家的“昔日辉煌”已不再，但李牧之还是很喜欢它，他决定在这个国家生活一段时间，“乌克兰人外表生冷，内心火热”，李牧之说。如果战争没有发生，李牧之还能照常约朋友到基辅独立广场碰面，在第聂伯河河边散步。但面对如此局面，李牧之并不感到意外。“2014年到现在，他们小规模的战争其实就没停过，只是双方原来的事态没发展到这么严重。这么多年以来，乌克兰边境地区顿涅茨克和俄罗斯的边境地区，一直在擦枪走火”。贸易网络上的中国面孔2021年5月30日，装载着100个标准集装箱的中欧班列自广州白云大朗铁路货运站启程，目的地是乌克兰第四大城市敖德萨。行程全程为8408公里，预计行驶25天，车辆上满载着割草机、电饭锅、茶叶等货物，货重约646吨，货值1059万元人民币。这是华南地区首趟直达乌克兰的中欧班列，也是中国首列开往敖德萨的中欧班列。自2020年开通以来，中国直达乌克兰的中欧班列已经开行57列。2019年，乌克兰海关统计，该年一季度，乌克兰对华贸易占比超过俄罗斯，中国成为乌克兰的第一大贸易伙伴。在2021年，乌克兰与全球235个国家开展了对外贸易。其中，对中国出口最多，达到80多亿元，其中包括1700多万吨铁矿石，823万吨玉米以及300余万吨大麦；同时又从中国进口了100余亿元商品，主要是三轮车、踏板车、踏板汽车等，还包括电话机、杀虫剂以及箱包日用品等。2022年1月14日，新华社刚刚刊发了一篇题为《2021年中乌务实合作取得丰硕成果——访中国驻乌克兰大使范先荣》的文章，范先荣在接受采访时表示，“2021年中乌务实合作在双边贸易、生产投资、交通往来等多方面亮点纷呈。面对新冠肺炎疫情冲击，双边务实合作展现出强劲韧性和巨大潜力”。俄乌冲突也让国内的贸易商也受到了影响。义乌的部分乌克兰贸易企业已经暂时停摆。义乌小商品城的商户告诉经济观察报，目前市场内不安排做发往乌克兰的货品，即使送到了外贸公司也要拉回来，已经在宁波港口的也准备撤回义乌仓库。另一位长期从事对乌贸易的出口企业也收到了对方暂停发货的通知，“什么时候能恢复，我也预计不到。”他说。乌克兰何时能够恢复常态？尚无人能够给出一个准确的信息，但一些华人已经开始怀念此前平凡而日常的生活。“希望早一天能结束，能恢复一切，如常的平静，对老百姓能正常的生活，我觉得这就够了。”李牧之说。福建商人孙晨来乌克兰27年了，主要做鞋的批发生意。他判断战争很难短时间停下来，因此如果撤侨包机来了，肯定会考虑先回国的，之后就要看当地的情况了。“毕竟在这有车有房的，乌克兰百姓也好，（生活）已经习惯了，这里也算得上是第二个故乡。”孙晨说。王旭也希望在政局稳定后再回来，毕竟积累的业务资源都在这里，如果要离开乌克兰，就意味着要重新开始。罗兰一家人都非常喜欢在乌克兰的生活，不打仗的日子是平凡且幸福的，但她深知，乌克兰并不是一个太平的国度。他们在驱车往西的路上，罗兰收到大使馆的消息，大使馆正在统计回国的人数，罗兰一家人都报名了，目前他们正在等待大使馆通知什么时候、以什么方式回到中国。“如果需要我们就撤，但战争结束后我们还想回来，因为我们的房子、车子和工作都在这里。”罗兰说。（应受访者要求，文中罗兰、孙晨为化名）","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"000001.SH":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":716,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":198683775,"gmtCreate":1620955533097,"gmtModify":1704351059677,"author":{"id":"3575067142498671","authorId":"3575067142498671","name":"JWZ137","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/842968796125e5a418b21a3b4ab603ef","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3575067142498671","idStr":"3575067142498671"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Wow","listText":"Wow","text":"Wow","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":7,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/198683775","repostId":"2135553676","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"2135553676","kind":"highlight","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"Dow Jones publishes the world’s most trusted business news and financial information in a variety of media.","home_visible":0,"media_name":"Dow Jones","id":"106","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/150f88aa4d182df19190059f4a365e99"},"pubTimestamp":1620955080,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/2135553676?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2021-05-14 09:18","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Jobless Americans in at least 16 states could get a rude awakening","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2135553676","media":"Dow Jones","summary":"Many workers in states that are cutting benefits 'will be desperate to keep body and soul together,'","content":"<p>Many workers in states that are cutting benefits 'will be desperate to keep body and soul together,' said Stephen Wandner, a senior fellow at the National Academy of Social Insurance</p><p>Pressure is building in some states to pull the plug on enhanced federal unemployment benefits.</p><p>Since the onset of the pandemic, every state has accepted federal unemployment aid that enabled them to distribute benefits to out-of-work people who normally would not qualify for them. States have also been handing out extra federal benefits -- including an additional $600 a week at <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AONE\">one</a> point -- to all unemployed workers on top of their state benefits.</p><p>These enhanced unemployment benefits were set to expire in September, but a growing number of states want to end them sooner in part because of mounting complaints from employers who cannot fill job vacancies because, they say, overly generous federal unemployment benefits are keeping would-be workers at home.</p><p>Last month, the U.S. added some 266,000 jobs -- far below the 1 million jobs economists were forecasting. Meanwhile, there are more than 8 million unfilled positions in the U.S ., according to the Department of Labor's Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey.</p><p>But initial jobless claims dropped to a pandemic low of 473,000  last week, the DOL reported on Thursday.</p><p>President Joe Biden acknowledged  that \"some employers are having trouble filling jobs,\" when he spoke about the jobs report last week.  But when asked if enhanced unemployment benefits kept some workers from returning to work he said, \"No, nothing measurable.\"</p><p>Pulling the plug on federal unemployment benefit programs, which were originally enacted under the CARES Act in April 2020, when some 23 million Americans were out of work, will encourage more Americans to seek out employment opportunities, some economists and policymakers hold.</p><p>***And employers in the 16 states that are opting out of federal unemployment benefits programs -- Alabama, Arizona, Arkansas, Georgia, Idaho, Iowa, Mississippi, Missouri, Montana, North Dakota, Ohio, South Carolina,  South Dakota, Tennessee, Utah and Wyoming -- won't have to raise wages to compete with unemployment benefits that in some cases exceed their state's minimum wage.***</p><p>But some research suggests that doing away with federal unemployment benefits may also have <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AONE.U\">one</a> big unintended consequence -- people could become more frugal with their money.</p><p>When federal benefits were cut to $300 from $600, total spending in 15 Illinois counties declined by 5%</p><p>After federal unemployment benefits were halved from $600 to $300, the total consumer spending levels across 15 counties in Illinois dropped by 5%, according to a paper titled \"The Effect of Fiscal Stimulus: Evidence from COVID-19\"  that was circulated by the National Bureau of Economic Research in August.</p><p>The authors of the paper -- who are professors at the University of Pennsylvania, University of Chicago, Illinois State University, New York University and Ohio State University -- published a revised version of the paper two months ago.</p><p>Researchers compared workers' wages before the pandemic to what they were receiving in unemployment benefits during the pandemic using data provided by the Illinois unemployment insurance system. They used aggregated data from several private companies to estimate debit and credit-card spending.</p><p>If individual spending levels declined by 5% as a result of lowering the benefits to $300 a week, it would hardly be headline-worthy, said Julia Lane, a professor at NYU's Wagner Graduate School of Public Service, and an author of the study.</p><p>But a 5% drop in total spending at the county level is \"quite high,\" she said.</p><p>Consumer spending is the lifeblood of the economy, representing about 70% of all U.S. gross domestic product . If consumer spending dropped by 5% nationwide it would mean a \"massive\" downturn in GDP, Lane told MarketWatch.</p><p>Total consumer spending would likely decline by a smaller percentage across every county in the U.S. once the $300 supplemental unemployment benefit expires for every jobless American in September, Lane said. That's because far more people were unemployed when the study was conducted than right now.</p><p>But \"in addition to losing the vital purchasing power workers have in their local and state economies, they are also being forced further into poverty by losing the ability to support their families, secure housing, food and more,\" said Alexa Tapia, an expert in unemployment benefits at the National Employment Law Project, an advocacy organization focused on workers' rights.</p><p>Of all the government spending programs, unemployment benefits have one of the biggest 'bangs for their buck'</p><p>For every dollar spent on unemployment insurance, there's a multiplier effect leading to a 1.64 increase in GDP , according to a 2008 study published by Mark Zandi, chief economist at Moody's Analytics.</p><p>Meanwhile, for every dollar spent on infrastructure projects such as President Joe Biden's $2.3 trillion American Jobs Plan, U.S. GDP could be expected to increase by a multiple of 1.59.</p><p>***Without the extra $300 a week benefit, jobless Americans in Alabama, Arizona, Arkansas, Georgia, Mississippi, Missouri, South Carolina and Tennessee, where average state weekly benefits are below $300, will see their total benefits shrink by more than half.***</p><p>Gig workers, independent contractors and self-employed workers across all of the 16 states could stop receiving unemployment benefits altogether.</p><p>These workers \"will be desperate to keep body and soul together,\" said Stephen Wandner, a senior fellow at the National Academy of Social Insurance. \"There will be a behavioral change,\" he added, predicting that more people will apply to jobs once they're cut off from unemployment benefits.</p><p>\"We don't know how big a change there will be,\" Wandner, a former actuary at the U.S. Labor Department, said, adding that \"the states that are doing this will be disappointed\" because it won't incentivize as many people as they'd probably like to go back to work.</p><p>More than 4 million Americans aren't working because they're afraid of contracting coronavirus, according to data  from the latest U.S. Census Bureau's Household Pulse Survey that was published on April 7. Another 8 million people indicated that they couldn't work because they were caring for a child or elderly person.</p><p>But some business leaders say enhanced unemployment benefits are keeping people from applying for jobs.</p><p>For example, in Mississippi, the state with the lowest cost of living , where the maximum weekly unemployment benefit is $235, the extra $300 a week in federal benefits \"is significant,\" said Douglas Holmes, president of UWC Strategic Services on Unemployment &amp; Workers' Compensation, a trade group representing the business community on unemployment insurance matters.</p><p>In fact, it's such a significant amount for Mississippians that it will likely impact \"their willingness to go back to work on top of concerns about COVID\" after June 12, when Mississippians will no longer receive federal benefits under an order the state's Republican Gov. Tate Reeves signed earlier this week , Holmes told MarketWatch.</p><p>\"There are certain circumstances in which the additional $300 a week could be the thing that a rational person looks at and says, 'I'm not going to take that job because I can make enough on unemployment to wait for the next better job,'\" Holmes said.</p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Jobless Americans in at least 16 states could get a rude awakening</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nJobless Americans in at least 16 states could get a rude awakening\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n<div class=\"head\" \">\n\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/150f88aa4d182df19190059f4a365e99);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">Dow Jones </p>\n<p class=\"h-time\">2021-05-14 09:18</p>\n</div>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>Many workers in states that are cutting benefits 'will be desperate to keep body and soul together,' said Stephen Wandner, a senior fellow at the National Academy of Social Insurance</p><p>Pressure is building in some states to pull the plug on enhanced federal unemployment benefits.</p><p>Since the onset of the pandemic, every state has accepted federal unemployment aid that enabled them to distribute benefits to out-of-work people who normally would not qualify for them. States have also been handing out extra federal benefits -- including an additional $600 a week at <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AONE\">one</a> point -- to all unemployed workers on top of their state benefits.</p><p>These enhanced unemployment benefits were set to expire in September, but a growing number of states want to end them sooner in part because of mounting complaints from employers who cannot fill job vacancies because, they say, overly generous federal unemployment benefits are keeping would-be workers at home.</p><p>Last month, the U.S. added some 266,000 jobs -- far below the 1 million jobs economists were forecasting. Meanwhile, there are more than 8 million unfilled positions in the U.S ., according to the Department of Labor's Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey.</p><p>But initial jobless claims dropped to a pandemic low of 473,000  last week, the DOL reported on Thursday.</p><p>President Joe Biden acknowledged  that \"some employers are having trouble filling jobs,\" when he spoke about the jobs report last week.  But when asked if enhanced unemployment benefits kept some workers from returning to work he said, \"No, nothing measurable.\"</p><p>Pulling the plug on federal unemployment benefit programs, which were originally enacted under the CARES Act in April 2020, when some 23 million Americans were out of work, will encourage more Americans to seek out employment opportunities, some economists and policymakers hold.</p><p>***And employers in the 16 states that are opting out of federal unemployment benefits programs -- Alabama, Arizona, Arkansas, Georgia, Idaho, Iowa, Mississippi, Missouri, Montana, North Dakota, Ohio, South Carolina,  South Dakota, Tennessee, Utah and Wyoming -- won't have to raise wages to compete with unemployment benefits that in some cases exceed their state's minimum wage.***</p><p>But some research suggests that doing away with federal unemployment benefits may also have <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AONE.U\">one</a> big unintended consequence -- people could become more frugal with their money.</p><p>When federal benefits were cut to $300 from $600, total spending in 15 Illinois counties declined by 5%</p><p>After federal unemployment benefits were halved from $600 to $300, the total consumer spending levels across 15 counties in Illinois dropped by 5%, according to a paper titled \"The Effect of Fiscal Stimulus: Evidence from COVID-19\"  that was circulated by the National Bureau of Economic Research in August.</p><p>The authors of the paper -- who are professors at the University of Pennsylvania, University of Chicago, Illinois State University, New York University and Ohio State University -- published a revised version of the paper two months ago.</p><p>Researchers compared workers' wages before the pandemic to what they were receiving in unemployment benefits during the pandemic using data provided by the Illinois unemployment insurance system. They used aggregated data from several private companies to estimate debit and credit-card spending.</p><p>If individual spending levels declined by 5% as a result of lowering the benefits to $300 a week, it would hardly be headline-worthy, said Julia Lane, a professor at NYU's Wagner Graduate School of Public Service, and an author of the study.</p><p>But a 5% drop in total spending at the county level is \"quite high,\" she said.</p><p>Consumer spending is the lifeblood of the economy, representing about 70% of all U.S. gross domestic product . If consumer spending dropped by 5% nationwide it would mean a \"massive\" downturn in GDP, Lane told MarketWatch.</p><p>Total consumer spending would likely decline by a smaller percentage across every county in the U.S. once the $300 supplemental unemployment benefit expires for every jobless American in September, Lane said. That's because far more people were unemployed when the study was conducted than right now.</p><p>But \"in addition to losing the vital purchasing power workers have in their local and state economies, they are also being forced further into poverty by losing the ability to support their families, secure housing, food and more,\" said Alexa Tapia, an expert in unemployment benefits at the National Employment Law Project, an advocacy organization focused on workers' rights.</p><p>Of all the government spending programs, unemployment benefits have one of the biggest 'bangs for their buck'</p><p>For every dollar spent on unemployment insurance, there's a multiplier effect leading to a 1.64 increase in GDP , according to a 2008 study published by Mark Zandi, chief economist at Moody's Analytics.</p><p>Meanwhile, for every dollar spent on infrastructure projects such as President Joe Biden's $2.3 trillion American Jobs Plan, U.S. GDP could be expected to increase by a multiple of 1.59.</p><p>***Without the extra $300 a week benefit, jobless Americans in Alabama, Arizona, Arkansas, Georgia, Mississippi, Missouri, South Carolina and Tennessee, where average state weekly benefits are below $300, will see their total benefits shrink by more than half.***</p><p>Gig workers, independent contractors and self-employed workers across all of the 16 states could stop receiving unemployment benefits altogether.</p><p>These workers \"will be desperate to keep body and soul together,\" said Stephen Wandner, a senior fellow at the National Academy of Social Insurance. \"There will be a behavioral change,\" he added, predicting that more people will apply to jobs once they're cut off from unemployment benefits.</p><p>\"We don't know how big a change there will be,\" Wandner, a former actuary at the U.S. Labor Department, said, adding that \"the states that are doing this will be disappointed\" because it won't incentivize as many people as they'd probably like to go back to work.</p><p>More than 4 million Americans aren't working because they're afraid of contracting coronavirus, according to data  from the latest U.S. Census Bureau's Household Pulse Survey that was published on April 7. Another 8 million people indicated that they couldn't work because they were caring for a child or elderly person.</p><p>But some business leaders say enhanced unemployment benefits are keeping people from applying for jobs.</p><p>For example, in Mississippi, the state with the lowest cost of living , where the maximum weekly unemployment benefit is $235, the extra $300 a week in federal benefits \"is significant,\" said Douglas Holmes, president of UWC Strategic Services on Unemployment &amp; Workers' Compensation, a trade group representing the business community on unemployment insurance matters.</p><p>In fact, it's such a significant amount for Mississippians that it will likely impact \"their willingness to go back to work on top of concerns about COVID\" after June 12, when Mississippians will no longer receive federal benefits under an order the state's Republican Gov. Tate Reeves signed earlier this week , Holmes told MarketWatch.</p><p>\"There are certain circumstances in which the additional $300 a week could be the thing that a rational person looks at and says, 'I'm not going to take that job because I can make enough on unemployment to wait for the next better job,'\" Holmes said.</p>\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{},"is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2135553676","content_text":"Many workers in states that are cutting benefits 'will be desperate to keep body and soul together,' said Stephen Wandner, a senior fellow at the National Academy of Social InsurancePressure is building in some states to pull the plug on enhanced federal unemployment benefits.Since the onset of the pandemic, every state has accepted federal unemployment aid that enabled them to distribute benefits to out-of-work people who normally would not qualify for them. States have also been handing out extra federal benefits -- including an additional $600 a week at one point -- to all unemployed workers on top of their state benefits.These enhanced unemployment benefits were set to expire in September, but a growing number of states want to end them sooner in part because of mounting complaints from employers who cannot fill job vacancies because, they say, overly generous federal unemployment benefits are keeping would-be workers at home.Last month, the U.S. added some 266,000 jobs -- far below the 1 million jobs economists were forecasting. Meanwhile, there are more than 8 million unfilled positions in the U.S ., according to the Department of Labor's Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey.But initial jobless claims dropped to a pandemic low of 473,000  last week, the DOL reported on Thursday.President Joe Biden acknowledged  that \"some employers are having trouble filling jobs,\" when he spoke about the jobs report last week.  But when asked if enhanced unemployment benefits kept some workers from returning to work he said, \"No, nothing measurable.\"Pulling the plug on federal unemployment benefit programs, which were originally enacted under the CARES Act in April 2020, when some 23 million Americans were out of work, will encourage more Americans to seek out employment opportunities, some economists and policymakers hold.***And employers in the 16 states that are opting out of federal unemployment benefits programs -- Alabama, Arizona, Arkansas, Georgia, Idaho, Iowa, Mississippi, Missouri, Montana, North Dakota, Ohio, South Carolina,  South Dakota, Tennessee, Utah and Wyoming -- won't have to raise wages to compete with unemployment benefits that in some cases exceed their state's minimum wage.***But some research suggests that doing away with federal unemployment benefits may also have one big unintended consequence -- people could become more frugal with their money.When federal benefits were cut to $300 from $600, total spending in 15 Illinois counties declined by 5%After federal unemployment benefits were halved from $600 to $300, the total consumer spending levels across 15 counties in Illinois dropped by 5%, according to a paper titled \"The Effect of Fiscal Stimulus: Evidence from COVID-19\"  that was circulated by the National Bureau of Economic Research in August.The authors of the paper -- who are professors at the University of Pennsylvania, University of Chicago, Illinois State University, New York University and Ohio State University -- published a revised version of the paper two months ago.Researchers compared workers' wages before the pandemic to what they were receiving in unemployment benefits during the pandemic using data provided by the Illinois unemployment insurance system. They used aggregated data from several private companies to estimate debit and credit-card spending.If individual spending levels declined by 5% as a result of lowering the benefits to $300 a week, it would hardly be headline-worthy, said Julia Lane, a professor at NYU's Wagner Graduate School of Public Service, and an author of the study.But a 5% drop in total spending at the county level is \"quite high,\" she said.Consumer spending is the lifeblood of the economy, representing about 70% of all U.S. gross domestic product . If consumer spending dropped by 5% nationwide it would mean a \"massive\" downturn in GDP, Lane told MarketWatch.Total consumer spending would likely decline by a smaller percentage across every county in the U.S. once the $300 supplemental unemployment benefit expires for every jobless American in September, Lane said. That's because far more people were unemployed when the study was conducted than right now.But \"in addition to losing the vital purchasing power workers have in their local and state economies, they are also being forced further into poverty by losing the ability to support their families, secure housing, food and more,\" said Alexa Tapia, an expert in unemployment benefits at the National Employment Law Project, an advocacy organization focused on workers' rights.Of all the government spending programs, unemployment benefits have one of the biggest 'bangs for their buck'For every dollar spent on unemployment insurance, there's a multiplier effect leading to a 1.64 increase in GDP , according to a 2008 study published by Mark Zandi, chief economist at Moody's Analytics.Meanwhile, for every dollar spent on infrastructure projects such as President Joe Biden's $2.3 trillion American Jobs Plan, U.S. GDP could be expected to increase by a multiple of 1.59.***Without the extra $300 a week benefit, jobless Americans in Alabama, Arizona, Arkansas, Georgia, Mississippi, Missouri, South Carolina and Tennessee, where average state weekly benefits are below $300, will see their total benefits shrink by more than half.***Gig workers, independent contractors and self-employed workers across all of the 16 states could stop receiving unemployment benefits altogether.These workers \"will be desperate to keep body and soul together,\" said Stephen Wandner, a senior fellow at the National Academy of Social Insurance. \"There will be a behavioral change,\" he added, predicting that more people will apply to jobs once they're cut off from unemployment benefits.\"We don't know how big a change there will be,\" Wandner, a former actuary at the U.S. Labor Department, said, adding that \"the states that are doing this will be disappointed\" because it won't incentivize as many people as they'd probably like to go back to work.More than 4 million Americans aren't working because they're afraid of contracting coronavirus, according to data  from the latest U.S. Census Bureau's Household Pulse Survey that was published on April 7. Another 8 million people indicated that they couldn't work because they were caring for a child or elderly person.But some business leaders say enhanced unemployment benefits are keeping people from applying for jobs.For example, in Mississippi, the state with the lowest cost of living , where the maximum weekly unemployment benefit is $235, the extra $300 a week in federal benefits \"is significant,\" said Douglas Holmes, president of UWC Strategic Services on Unemployment & Workers' Compensation, a trade group representing the business community on unemployment insurance matters.In fact, it's such a significant amount for Mississippians that it will likely impact \"their willingness to go back to work on top of concerns about COVID\" after June 12, when Mississippians will no longer receive federal benefits under an order the state's Republican Gov. Tate Reeves signed earlier this week , Holmes told MarketWatch.\"There are certain circumstances in which the additional $300 a week could be the thing that a rational person looks at and says, 'I'm not going to take that job because I can make enough on unemployment to wait for the next better job,'\" Holmes said.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":568,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":343467221,"gmtCreate":1617750782763,"gmtModify":1704702520779,"author":{"id":"3575067142498671","authorId":"3575067142498671","name":"JWZ137","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/842968796125e5a418b21a3b4ab603ef","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3575067142498671","idStr":"3575067142498671"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Good","listText":"Good","text":"Good","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":7,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/343467221","repostId":"1101907559","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1101907559","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1617672655,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1101907559?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2021-04-06 09:30","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Opinion: Financial crises get triggered about every 10 years — Archegos might be right on time","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1101907559","media":"marketwatch","summary":"No one, for now, can say for sure that the so-called family office’s billions in investment losses won’t spread.Financial crises are never quite the same. During the late 1980s, nearly a third of the nation’s savings and loan associations failed, ending with a taxpayer bailout — in 2021 terms — of about $265 billion.In 1997-1998, financial crises in Asia and Russia led to the near meltdown of the largest hedge fund in the U.S. —Long-Term Capital Management. Its reach and operating practices were","content":"<blockquote>\n <b>No one, for now, can say for sure that the so-called family office’s billions in investment losses won’t spread.</b>\n</blockquote>\n<p>Financial crises are never quite the same. During the late 1980s, nearly a third of the nation’s savings and loan associations failed, ending with a taxpayer bailout — in 2021 terms — of about $265 billion.</p>\n<p>In 1997-1998, financial crises in Asia and Russia led to the near meltdown of the largest hedge fund in the U.S. —Long-Term Capital Management(LTCM). Its reach and operating practices were such that Federal Reserve Chairman Alan Greenspan said that when LTCM failed, “he had never seen anything in his lifetime that compared to the terror” he felt. LTCM was deemed “too big to fail,” and he engineered a bailout by 14 major U.S. financial institutions.</p>\n<p>Exactly a decade later, too much leverage by some of those very institutions, and the bursting of a U.S. real estate bubble, led to the near collapse of the U.S. financial system. Once again, big banks were deemed too big to fail and taxpayers came to the rescue.</p>\n<p>The trend? Every 10 years or so, and they all look different.&nbsp;Are we in the early stages of a new crisis now, with the blowup at the family office Archegos Capital Management LP?</p>\n<p>A family office, for the uninitiated, is a private wealth management vehicle for the ultra-wealthy. Here’s what I mean by ultra-wealthy: Consulting firm EY estimates there are some 10,000 family offices globally, but manage, says a separate estimate by market research firm Campden Research, nearly $6 trillion. That $6 trillion is likely far higher now given that it’s based on 2019 data.</p>\n<p><b>Unregulated money managers</b></p>\n<p>Here’s the potential danger. Family offices generally aren’t regulated. The 1940 Investment Advisers Act says firms with 15 clients or fewer don’t have to register with the Securities and Exchange Commission. What this means is that trillions of dollars are in play and no one can really say who’s running the money, what it’s invested in, how much leverage is being used, and what kind of counterparty risk may exist. (Counterparty risk is the probability that one party involved in a financial transaction could default on a contractual obligation to someone else.)</p>\n<p>This appears to be the case with Archegos. The firm bet heavily on certain Chinese stocks, including e-commerce player&nbsp;Vipshop Holdings&nbsp;Ltd.VIPS,-1.19%,U.S.-listed Chinese tutoring company&nbsp;GSX Techedu&nbsp;Inc.GSX,-10.63%and U.S. media companiesViacomCBS&nbsp;Inc.VIAC,-3.90%and&nbsp;Discovery&nbsp;Inc.DISCA,-3.86%,among others. Share prices have tumbled lately, sparking large sales — some $30 billion — by Archegos.</p>\n<p>The problem is that only about a third of that, or $10 billion, was its own money. We now know that Archegos worked with some of the biggest names on Wall Street, including&nbsp;Credit Suisse Group AGCS,+1.59%,UBS Group AGUBS,+1.01%,Goldman Sachs Group Inc.GS,-1.25%,&nbsp;Morgan StanleyMS,-0.28%,Deutsche Bank AGDB,+0.74%and Nomura Holdings Inc.&nbsp;NMR,+1.87%.</p>\n<p>But since family offices are largely allowed to operate unregulated, who’s to say how much money is really involved here and what the extent of market risk is? My colleague Mark DeCambre&nbsp;reported last week that Archegos’ true exposures to bad trades could actuallybe closer to $100 billion.</p>\n<p><b>Danger of counterparty risk</b></p>\n<p>This is where counterparty risk comes in. As Archegos’ bets went south, the above banks — looking at losses of their own — hit the firm with margin calls. Deutsche quickly dumped about $4 billion in holdings, while Goldman and Morgan Stanley are also said to have unwound their positions, perhaps limiting their downside.</p>\n<p>So is this a financial crisis? It doesn’t appear to be. Even so, the Securities and Exchange Commission has opened a preliminary investigation into Archegos and its founder, Bill Hwang.</p>\n<p>One peer, Tom Lee, the research chief of Fundstrat Global Advisors, calls Hwang one of the “top 10 of the best investment minds” he knows.</p>\n<p>But federal regulators may have a lesser opinion. In 2012, Hwang’s former hedge fund, Tiger Asia Management, pleaded guilty and paid more than $60 million in penalties after it was accused of trading on illegal tips about Chinese banks. The SEC banned Hwang from managing money on behalf of clients — essentially booting him from the hedge fund industry. So Hwang opened Archegos, and again, family offices aren’t generally aren’t regulated.</p>\n<p><b>Yellen on the case</b></p>\n<p>This issue is on Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen’s radar. She said last week that greater oversight of these private corners of the financial industry is needed. The Financial Stability Oversight Council (FSOC), which she oversees, has revived a task force to help agencies better “share data, identify risks and work to strengthen our financial system.”</p>\n<p>Most financial crises end up with American taxpayers getting stuck with the tab. Gains belong to the risk-takers. But losses — they belong to us. To paraphrase Abe Lincoln, family offices — a multi-trillion dollar industry largely allowed to operate in the shadows in a global financial system that is more intertwined than ever — are of the super-wealthy, by the super-wealthy and for the super-wealthy. And no one else.</p>\n<p>The Archegos collapse may or may not be the beginning of yet another financial crisis. But who’s to say what thousands of other family offices are doing with their trillions, and whether similar problems could blow up?</p>","source":"lsy1603348471595","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Opinion: Financial crises get triggered about every 10 years — Archegos might be right on time</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nOpinion: Financial crises get triggered about every 10 years — Archegos might be right on time\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-04-06 09:30 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://www.marketwatch.com/story/financial-crises-happen-about-every-10-years-which-makes-the-archegos-meltdown-unnerving-11617634942?mod=home-page><strong>marketwatch</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>No one, for now, can say for sure that the so-called family office’s billions in investment losses won’t spread.\n\nFinancial crises are never quite the same. During the late 1980s, nearly a third of ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://www.marketwatch.com/story/financial-crises-happen-about-every-10-years-which-makes-the-archegos-meltdown-unnerving-11617634942?mod=home-page\">Source Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{".DJI":"道琼斯",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite","SPY":"标普500ETF"},"source_url":"https://www.marketwatch.com/story/financial-crises-happen-about-every-10-years-which-makes-the-archegos-meltdown-unnerving-11617634942?mod=home-page","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1101907559","content_text":"No one, for now, can say for sure that the so-called family office’s billions in investment losses won’t spread.\n\nFinancial crises are never quite the same. During the late 1980s, nearly a third of the nation’s savings and loan associations failed, ending with a taxpayer bailout — in 2021 terms — of about $265 billion.\nIn 1997-1998, financial crises in Asia and Russia led to the near meltdown of the largest hedge fund in the U.S. —Long-Term Capital Management(LTCM). Its reach and operating practices were such that Federal Reserve Chairman Alan Greenspan said that when LTCM failed, “he had never seen anything in his lifetime that compared to the terror” he felt. LTCM was deemed “too big to fail,” and he engineered a bailout by 14 major U.S. financial institutions.\nExactly a decade later, too much leverage by some of those very institutions, and the bursting of a U.S. real estate bubble, led to the near collapse of the U.S. financial system. Once again, big banks were deemed too big to fail and taxpayers came to the rescue.\nThe trend? Every 10 years or so, and they all look different. Are we in the early stages of a new crisis now, with the blowup at the family office Archegos Capital Management LP?\nA family office, for the uninitiated, is a private wealth management vehicle for the ultra-wealthy. Here’s what I mean by ultra-wealthy: Consulting firm EY estimates there are some 10,000 family offices globally, but manage, says a separate estimate by market research firm Campden Research, nearly $6 trillion. That $6 trillion is likely far higher now given that it’s based on 2019 data.\nUnregulated money managers\nHere’s the potential danger. Family offices generally aren’t regulated. The 1940 Investment Advisers Act says firms with 15 clients or fewer don’t have to register with the Securities and Exchange Commission. What this means is that trillions of dollars are in play and no one can really say who’s running the money, what it’s invested in, how much leverage is being used, and what kind of counterparty risk may exist. (Counterparty risk is the probability that one party involved in a financial transaction could default on a contractual obligation to someone else.)\nThis appears to be the case with Archegos. The firm bet heavily on certain Chinese stocks, including e-commerce player Vipshop Holdings Ltd.VIPS,-1.19%,U.S.-listed Chinese tutoring company GSX Techedu Inc.GSX,-10.63%and U.S. media companiesViacomCBS Inc.VIAC,-3.90%and Discovery Inc.DISCA,-3.86%,among others. Share prices have tumbled lately, sparking large sales — some $30 billion — by Archegos.\nThe problem is that only about a third of that, or $10 billion, was its own money. We now know that Archegos worked with some of the biggest names on Wall Street, including Credit Suisse Group AGCS,+1.59%,UBS Group AGUBS,+1.01%,Goldman Sachs Group Inc.GS,-1.25%, Morgan StanleyMS,-0.28%,Deutsche Bank AGDB,+0.74%and Nomura Holdings Inc. NMR,+1.87%.\nBut since family offices are largely allowed to operate unregulated, who’s to say how much money is really involved here and what the extent of market risk is? My colleague Mark DeCambre reported last week that Archegos’ true exposures to bad trades could actuallybe closer to $100 billion.\nDanger of counterparty risk\nThis is where counterparty risk comes in. As Archegos’ bets went south, the above banks — looking at losses of their own — hit the firm with margin calls. Deutsche quickly dumped about $4 billion in holdings, while Goldman and Morgan Stanley are also said to have unwound their positions, perhaps limiting their downside.\nSo is this a financial crisis? It doesn’t appear to be. Even so, the Securities and Exchange Commission has opened a preliminary investigation into Archegos and its founder, Bill Hwang.\nOne peer, Tom Lee, the research chief of Fundstrat Global Advisors, calls Hwang one of the “top 10 of the best investment minds” he knows.\nBut federal regulators may have a lesser opinion. In 2012, Hwang’s former hedge fund, Tiger Asia Management, pleaded guilty and paid more than $60 million in penalties after it was accused of trading on illegal tips about Chinese banks. The SEC banned Hwang from managing money on behalf of clients — essentially booting him from the hedge fund industry. So Hwang opened Archegos, and again, family offices aren’t generally aren’t regulated.\nYellen on the case\nThis issue is on Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen’s radar. She said last week that greater oversight of these private corners of the financial industry is needed. The Financial Stability Oversight Council (FSOC), which she oversees, has revived a task force to help agencies better “share data, identify risks and work to strengthen our financial system.”\nMost financial crises end up with American taxpayers getting stuck with the tab. Gains belong to the risk-takers. But losses — they belong to us. To paraphrase Abe Lincoln, family offices — a multi-trillion dollar industry largely allowed to operate in the shadows in a global financial system that is more intertwined than ever — are of the super-wealthy, by the super-wealthy and for the super-wealthy. And no one else.\nThe Archegos collapse may or may not be the beginning of yet another financial crisis. But who’s to say what thousands of other family offices are doing with their trillions, and whether similar problems could blow up?","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{".DJI":0.9,".SPX":0.9,".IXIC":0.9,"SPY":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":565,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9048098123,"gmtCreate":1656116778562,"gmtModify":1676535769786,"author":{"id":"3575067142498671","authorId":"3575067142498671","name":"JWZ137","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/842968796125e5a418b21a3b4ab603ef","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3575067142498671","idStr":"3575067142498671"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Wow&nbsp;","listText":"Wow&nbsp;","text":"Wow","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9048098123","repostId":"1182322747","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":390,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9039305215,"gmtCreate":1645919198087,"gmtModify":1676534073928,"author":{"id":"3575067142498671","authorId":"3575067142498671","name":"JWZ137","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/842968796125e5a418b21a3b4ab603ef","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3575067142498671","idStr":"3575067142498671"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Wow","listText":"Wow","text":"Wow","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":4,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9039305215","repostId":"2214180192","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"2214180192","kind":"highlight","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"经济观察报官方账号","home_visible":1,"media_name":"经济观察报","id":"1014835943","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/53947f6c3e232c366cc0bd0fd311397d"},"pubTimestamp":1645859010,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/2214180192?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2022-02-26 15:03","market":"hk","language":"zh","title":"Chinese faces in Ukraine, how are they doing now","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2214180192","media":"经济观察报","summary":"留学并留在乌克兰的中国人不在少数。","content":"<p><div>(Photo source: Oriental IC) Reporter: Xie Chuchu Song Di evacuated At around 6 a.m. local time on February 24, Roland was awakened by the sound of a phone call. Her friend told her that the war had begun and told her to evacuate Kiev. She quickly told her family to get up and pack their clothes and bags, and ran to the west with a few students. On February 24, Beijing time, Russian President Vladimir Putin decided to conduct military operations in Donbas. On the same day, explosions were heard in Kiev, the capital of Ukraine, and other cities. Just as Roland was loading his luggage in the trunk, a military plane roared overhead. Roland was shocked and hurriedly set off on his way. \"This is the closest I've ever been to a war.\"...</p><p><a href=\"\">Web link</a></div></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Chinese faces in Ukraine, how are they doing now</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nChinese faces in Ukraine, how are they doing now\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/1014835943\">\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/53947f6c3e232c366cc0bd0fd311397d);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">经济观察报 </p>\n<p class=\"h-time smaller\">2022-02-26 15:03</p>\n</div>\n</a>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><div>(Photo source: Oriental IC) Reporter: Xie Chuchu Song Di evacuated At around 6 a.m. local time on February 24, Roland was awakened by the sound of a phone call. Her friend told her that the war had begun and told her to evacuate Kiev. She quickly told her family to get up and pack their clothes and bags, and ran to the west with a few students. On February 24, Beijing time, Russian President Vladimir Putin decided to conduct military operations in Donbas. On the same day, explosions were heard in Kiev, the capital of Ukraine, and other cities. Just as Roland was loading his luggage in the trunk, a military plane roared overhead. Roland was shocked and hurriedly set off on his way. \"This is the closest I've ever been to a war.\"...</p><p><a href=\"\">Web link</a></div></p>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1b6f0ea65681c95c05fc970eb3496d5d","relate_stocks":{"000001.SH":"上证指数"},"source_url":"","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2214180192","content_text":"（图片来源：东方IC）记者：谢楚楚 宋笛撤离当地时间2月24日早上6点多，罗兰被电话声吵醒，朋友告诉她战争开始了，让她最好撤离基辅。她赶紧叫家人起来收拾衣服、打包行李，带着几个学生，奔往西部。北京时间2月24日，俄罗斯总统普京决定在顿巴斯进行军事行动，同日，乌克兰首都基辅等城市传出爆炸声。就在罗兰往后备箱装行李时，一架军事飞机从头顶轰鸣而过，罗兰心中一惊，赶忙启程上路。“这是我离战争最近的一次。”罗兰说。小心翼翼，一路向西，罗兰看到了坦克部队在对面逆向而过，沿途的加油站排起了长队，“只能付现金”。直到当晚抵达位于乌克兰西北部的罗夫诺州，罗兰才安顿下来，四周静悄悄的，没有了枪炮的声音，但一家人依然睡得心惊胆战。罗兰对战争的爆发早有预期，经历过2014年乌克兰革命的罗兰颇具警觉性，此前数天，她就已经把家里的护照和文件收拾妥当，并储备了一定的食物和生活用品。与警觉的罗兰不同，一些在乌华人没有选择逃离基辅。一位在乌克兰从事医药贸易的华人告诉经济观察报，她昨晚一夜没睡，躲在防空洞里，一直到2月25日下午才敢回家中收拾东西，准备撤侨回国。截稿前，这位华人又回到地下车库躲避，当地已经实行宵禁，因为车库信号不好，她在出车库临时回复国内长辈信息时才抽空告知记者她的现状，随后又匆匆赶回车库。2月22日，中国驻乌克兰大使馆网站发出了一份请中国公民注意安全的提醒，提醒中提及“乌克兰东部局势发生重大变化”，2月24日又一次发布该提醒；2月25日，大使馆发布紧急通知请拟自乌克兰撤离中国公民进行登记，通知表示为准备分批包机接返有关事宜，现开始人员登记。搭乘包机根据自愿原则。包机派出时间根据飞行安全情况确定，届时将提前通知。李牧之已经下定决心，不打算撤离，他还不清楚大使馆会怎样安排相关人员，比如资费、隔离政策等，他觉得如果要隔离“14+7”天，那还不如留在这里。李牧之乐观地判断，目前局势不太会影响到普通老百姓和居民，回国的必要性不大。李牧之是一位赴乌克兰留学的中国学生。2月24日凌晨四五点左右，睡梦中的李牧之被国内亲戚朋友频繁发来的信息轰炸至醒。在亲戚朋友口中得知俄罗斯将对乌克兰发起军事攻击之后，他决定下楼看看具体情况，因为他并没有听到任何大的动静。李牧之住在距离基辅市中心不远的地方。当地时间24日下午，李牧之来到基辅市中心街道，发现一些媒体在做采访，街上人变少了，除了卖衣服的大型商场、KFC、麦当劳等饮食餐厅关门之外，大型超市、医院、银行、药店未关门。但各个地方都需要排队。在前往市中心了解情况时，李牧之发现地铁是免费开放的，地铁上能看到一些人已经打包好行李准备离开，周边社区出现了少数穿制服的警察，但未看到士兵。他听说，基辅有些人选择了去其他城市避难，有些人选择了在防空洞里面睡觉。“但我们就在家待着，绝大多数人还是在家里待着”。王旭就是在家呆着的其中一位，他在乌克兰的哈尔科夫市，“炮弹不长眼，也不知道安全不安全”，在截稿前一个半小时，还发生了一场持续两三分钟的空袭，王旭赶紧把食物转移到车库内，地下车库聚集了很多邻居。此外，乌克兰已经进入战争状态，按照当地法律，军队有权征用车辆，王旭也不打算去其他的城市，“最好还是呆在家里”。李牧之的一位朋友住在敖德萨，这也是俄军所涉之处。听闻局势动荡，李牧之的朋友也拿起了单反相机外出拍摄记录。他告诉李牧之，外面一切安好。生计与生活直到2月24日，王旭觉得在乌克兰的一切都在正常进行，尽管与俄罗斯矛盾已经持续了若干年。2007年，王旭来到乌克兰留学，因为“当地的留学费用毕竟低一些”，毕业后，王旭留在了一家中国企业的乌克兰分公司，从事机床零件贸易，主要做的是俄语区的贸易。他的妻子是乌克兰人，哈尔科夫是一座“说大不大，说小不小”的城市，上班之外，周末的时间就是和朋友聚会，在附近的商场转一转。像王旭这样，留学并留在乌克兰的中国人不在少数。2009年，因为家里企业和乌克兰有合作，罗兰来到乌克兰留学，毕业后留在了当地，与一名中国留学生相识相爱，走入婚姻。罗兰对教育很感兴趣，在大学毕业后，罗兰和朋友因缘际会下创业，做了一家留学机构，这两年公司发展还不错。目前，罗兰一家在基辅买了房和车，两个孩子也在基辅上学，一个5岁，一个3岁，一家人保持中国国籍。疫情之前，他们一年回中国一到两次，疫情后回国不太方便。战争打响后，罗兰被朋友拉入一些华人互助群，群里互相交换信息提供帮助，比如有人会报安全的防空洞地址，有人要去西部，车上还有空位会在群里问有没有人要拼车。据中国驻乌克兰大使馆发布的信息，在乌中国公民约6000人，包括中资企业、留学生和华侨等，主要分布在基辅、利沃夫、哈尔科夫、敖德萨和苏梅等地。2019年，李牧之曾赴乌克兰旅游，2021年6月底再次来到乌克兰留学，虽然这个国家的“昔日辉煌”已不再，但李牧之还是很喜欢它，他决定在这个国家生活一段时间，“乌克兰人外表生冷，内心火热”，李牧之说。如果战争没有发生，李牧之还能照常约朋友到基辅独立广场碰面，在第聂伯河河边散步。但面对如此局面，李牧之并不感到意外。“2014年到现在，他们小规模的战争其实就没停过，只是双方原来的事态没发展到这么严重。这么多年以来，乌克兰边境地区顿涅茨克和俄罗斯的边境地区，一直在擦枪走火”。贸易网络上的中国面孔2021年5月30日，装载着100个标准集装箱的中欧班列自广州白云大朗铁路货运站启程，目的地是乌克兰第四大城市敖德萨。行程全程为8408公里，预计行驶25天，车辆上满载着割草机、电饭锅、茶叶等货物，货重约646吨，货值1059万元人民币。这是华南地区首趟直达乌克兰的中欧班列，也是中国首列开往敖德萨的中欧班列。自2020年开通以来，中国直达乌克兰的中欧班列已经开行57列。2019年，乌克兰海关统计，该年一季度，乌克兰对华贸易占比超过俄罗斯，中国成为乌克兰的第一大贸易伙伴。在2021年，乌克兰与全球235个国家开展了对外贸易。其中，对中国出口最多，达到80多亿元，其中包括1700多万吨铁矿石，823万吨玉米以及300余万吨大麦；同时又从中国进口了100余亿元商品，主要是三轮车、踏板车、踏板汽车等，还包括电话机、杀虫剂以及箱包日用品等。2022年1月14日，新华社刚刚刊发了一篇题为《2021年中乌务实合作取得丰硕成果——访中国驻乌克兰大使范先荣》的文章，范先荣在接受采访时表示，“2021年中乌务实合作在双边贸易、生产投资、交通往来等多方面亮点纷呈。面对新冠肺炎疫情冲击，双边务实合作展现出强劲韧性和巨大潜力”。俄乌冲突也让国内的贸易商也受到了影响。义乌的部分乌克兰贸易企业已经暂时停摆。义乌小商品城的商户告诉经济观察报，目前市场内不安排做发往乌克兰的货品，即使送到了外贸公司也要拉回来，已经在宁波港口的也准备撤回义乌仓库。另一位长期从事对乌贸易的出口企业也收到了对方暂停发货的通知，“什么时候能恢复，我也预计不到。”他说。乌克兰何时能够恢复常态？尚无人能够给出一个准确的信息，但一些华人已经开始怀念此前平凡而日常的生活。“希望早一天能结束，能恢复一切，如常的平静，对老百姓能正常的生活，我觉得这就够了。”李牧之说。福建商人孙晨来乌克兰27年了，主要做鞋的批发生意。他判断战争很难短时间停下来，因此如果撤侨包机来了，肯定会考虑先回国的，之后就要看当地的情况了。“毕竟在这有车有房的，乌克兰百姓也好，（生活）已经习惯了，这里也算得上是第二个故乡。”孙晨说。王旭也希望在政局稳定后再回来，毕竟积累的业务资源都在这里，如果要离开乌克兰，就意味着要重新开始。罗兰一家人都非常喜欢在乌克兰的生活，不打仗的日子是平凡且幸福的，但她深知，乌克兰并不是一个太平的国度。他们在驱车往西的路上，罗兰收到大使馆的消息，大使馆正在统计回国的人数，罗兰一家人都报名了，目前他们正在等待大使馆通知什么时候、以什么方式回到中国。“如果需要我们就撤，但战争结束后我们还想回来，因为我们的房子、车子和工作都在这里。”罗兰说。（应受访者要求，文中罗兰、孙晨为化名）","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"000001.SH":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":652,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":102934544,"gmtCreate":1620172862488,"gmtModify":1704339606972,"author":{"id":"3575067142498671","authorId":"3575067142498671","name":"JWZ137","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/842968796125e5a418b21a3b4ab603ef","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3575067142498671","idStr":"3575067142498671"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Good","listText":"Good","text":"Good","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":3,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/102934544","repostId":"1191168108","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1191168108","kind":"news","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"Stock Market Quotes, Business News, Financial News, Trading Ideas, and Stock Research by Professionals","home_visible":0,"media_name":"Benzinga","id":"1052270027","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d08bf7808052c0ca9deb4e944cae32aa"},"pubTimestamp":1620139872,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1191168108?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2021-05-04 22:51","market":"us","language":"en","title":"IPO Preview: Honest Company, Chinese Lifestyle Brand Onion Global, Hydroponic iPower Lead Group","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1191168108","media":"Benzinga","summary":"The week of May 3 has several IPOs on the docket spread across sectors like consumer products, fashi","content":"<p>The week of May 3 has several IPOs on the docket spread across sectors like consumer products, fashion, banking, vaccines and hydroponics. Here is a look at this week’s top offerings and details investors should know.</p>\n<p><b>Waterdrop:</b>Working with insurance companies,<b>Waterdrop</b>NYSEWDHseeksto have a positive social impact with its technology platform. Waterdrop has over 79.4 million cumulative customers and over 340 million donors to its crowdfunding platform, which is the largest medical crowdfunding platform in China.</p>\n<p>Waterdrop works with 62 insurance carriers and offers over 200 products to help customers and those seeking help with medical bills. The company had revenue of $464.1 million in fiscal 2020. The company plans on offering 30 million American depositary shares at a price point of $10 to $12.</p>\n<p><b>Five Star Bancorp:</b>With branches in California,<b>Five Star Bancorp</b>NASDAQFSBCisa regional bank company focused on the Sacramento market. The company ended 2020 with $1.8 billion in deposits and $1.5 billion in loans.</p>\n<p>From 2016 to 2020, the company saw compounded annual growth of 23.5% for assets, 23.8% for loans and 23.7% for deposits. First quarter preliminary numbers saw deposits grow 11.2% from the fourth quarter and loans grow 2.6% from the fourth quarter. The company plans on selling 5.265 million shares at a price point of $18 to $20.</p>\n<p><b>The Honest Company:</b>Clean lifestyle product company<b>The Honest Company</b>NASDAQHNSTcouldbe the most-watched IPO this week. The company was founded by actress Jessica Alba in 2012 in response to finding clean products and non-allergic reactions from products after giving birth.</p>\n<p>The Honest Company prides itself in being “a conscious living company for today and tomorrow.” The company has grown from being a diapers-and-wipes company to covering every age and every life stage of its customers.</p>\n<p>The Honest Company had revenue of $235.6 million in fiscal 2020, up 27.6% year-over-year. Diapers and wipes made up 63% of 2020 revenue, up 16.4% year-over-year. Skin and personal care product revenue represented 26% of sales in 2020 and were up 55% year-over-year. Household and wellness sales made up 11% of sales and had year-over-year growth of 116.5% in 2020. The Honest Company products can be purchased online from the company or sites like<b>Amazon.com</b>AMZN 1.77%and in physical stores like<b>Costco Wholesale Corporation</b>COST 0.54%and<b>Target Corporation</b>TGT 0.23%.</p>\n<p>Founder Alba will not sell any shares in the IPO and will own an estimated 6.1% of the company after the offering. The company isseekingto sell 25.8 million shares at a price point of $14 to $17.</p>\n<p><b>Bowman Consulting Group:</b>Professional services company<b>Bowman Consulting Group</b>NASDAQBWMNoffersengineering solutions to customers. Bowman Consulting has over 2,200 customers who count on the company for services like planning, engineering, construction management, commissioning, geomatics, survey, land procurement and environmental consulting. The company had revenue of $122 million in the last fiscal year, up from $113.7 million in the prior year. Bowman Consulting plans to offer 3.1 million shares at a price point of $12 to $14.</p>\n<p><b>Valneva:</b>Vaccine company<b>Valneva</b>NASDAQVLAplansto sell 7.1 million ordinary shares (3.55 million ADSs) at a price of $28.24. The company is focused on vaccine development in infectious diseases. Target areas include Lyme disease, the Chikungunya virus and COVID-19. The company’s lead program VLA15 is in Phase 2 trials to treat Lyme disease and is partnered with<b>Pfizer Corporation</b>PFE 0.49%. Other clinical trials include VLA1553 to treat Chikungunya virus and VLA2001 to treat COVID-19. The company’s VLA1553 is the only known Phase 3 trial vaccine to treat Chikungunya, which could put it in the spotlight with spread to over 100 countries. Several of the company’s products have received Fast Track designation by the FDA.</p>\n<p><b>Onion Global:</b>Lifestyle brand company<b>Onion Global</b>NYSEOGplanson selling 12.5 million ADS at a price point of $7.25 to $9.25. The company targets fresh, fashionable and future brands, which it refers to as the 3Fs across China and parts of Asia. The company has over 4,000 brands in 23 categories sold in 43 countries. Onion Global is a top ten global lifestyle company in China. The company uses an omnichannel approach with its self operated ecommerce platform O’Mall, live streaming sales, third party sellers and offline sales. The company has 2.1 million active buyers and 15.5 million registered users.</p>\n<p><b>iPower:</b>Online hydroponic equipment seller<b>iPower Inc</b>NASDAQIPWplansto offer 5&nbsp;million shares at a price point of $9 to $11. The company offers its own brands and partnered brands through its websitewww.zenhydro.com. iPower-owned brands represented 76% of company sales in the six month period ending December 31, 2020. The company had sales of $26.2 million in the six month period ending December 31, 2020. Preliminary first-quarter revenue is expected to be in a range of $11.75 million to $12.75 million compared to $9.4 million in the prior year.</p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>IPO Preview: Honest Company, Chinese Lifestyle Brand Onion Global, Hydroponic iPower Lead Group</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nIPO Preview: Honest Company, Chinese Lifestyle Brand Onion Global, Hydroponic iPower Lead Group\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n<div class=\"head\" \">\n\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/d08bf7808052c0ca9deb4e944cae32aa);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">Benzinga </p>\n<p class=\"h-time\">2021-05-04 22:51</p>\n</div>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>The week of May 3 has several IPOs on the docket spread across sectors like consumer products, fashion, banking, vaccines and hydroponics. Here is a look at this week’s top offerings and details investors should know.</p>\n<p><b>Waterdrop:</b>Working with insurance companies,<b>Waterdrop</b>NYSEWDHseeksto have a positive social impact with its technology platform. Waterdrop has over 79.4 million cumulative customers and over 340 million donors to its crowdfunding platform, which is the largest medical crowdfunding platform in China.</p>\n<p>Waterdrop works with 62 insurance carriers and offers over 200 products to help customers and those seeking help with medical bills. The company had revenue of $464.1 million in fiscal 2020. The company plans on offering 30 million American depositary shares at a price point of $10 to $12.</p>\n<p><b>Five Star Bancorp:</b>With branches in California,<b>Five Star Bancorp</b>NASDAQFSBCisa regional bank company focused on the Sacramento market. The company ended 2020 with $1.8 billion in deposits and $1.5 billion in loans.</p>\n<p>From 2016 to 2020, the company saw compounded annual growth of 23.5% for assets, 23.8% for loans and 23.7% for deposits. First quarter preliminary numbers saw deposits grow 11.2% from the fourth quarter and loans grow 2.6% from the fourth quarter. The company plans on selling 5.265 million shares at a price point of $18 to $20.</p>\n<p><b>The Honest Company:</b>Clean lifestyle product company<b>The Honest Company</b>NASDAQHNSTcouldbe the most-watched IPO this week. The company was founded by actress Jessica Alba in 2012 in response to finding clean products and non-allergic reactions from products after giving birth.</p>\n<p>The Honest Company prides itself in being “a conscious living company for today and tomorrow.” The company has grown from being a diapers-and-wipes company to covering every age and every life stage of its customers.</p>\n<p>The Honest Company had revenue of $235.6 million in fiscal 2020, up 27.6% year-over-year. Diapers and wipes made up 63% of 2020 revenue, up 16.4% year-over-year. Skin and personal care product revenue represented 26% of sales in 2020 and were up 55% year-over-year. Household and wellness sales made up 11% of sales and had year-over-year growth of 116.5% in 2020. The Honest Company products can be purchased online from the company or sites like<b>Amazon.com</b>AMZN 1.77%and in physical stores like<b>Costco Wholesale Corporation</b>COST 0.54%and<b>Target Corporation</b>TGT 0.23%.</p>\n<p>Founder Alba will not sell any shares in the IPO and will own an estimated 6.1% of the company after the offering. The company isseekingto sell 25.8 million shares at a price point of $14 to $17.</p>\n<p><b>Bowman Consulting Group:</b>Professional services company<b>Bowman Consulting Group</b>NASDAQBWMNoffersengineering solutions to customers. Bowman Consulting has over 2,200 customers who count on the company for services like planning, engineering, construction management, commissioning, geomatics, survey, land procurement and environmental consulting. The company had revenue of $122 million in the last fiscal year, up from $113.7 million in the prior year. Bowman Consulting plans to offer 3.1 million shares at a price point of $12 to $14.</p>\n<p><b>Valneva:</b>Vaccine company<b>Valneva</b>NASDAQVLAplansto sell 7.1 million ordinary shares (3.55 million ADSs) at a price of $28.24. The company is focused on vaccine development in infectious diseases. Target areas include Lyme disease, the Chikungunya virus and COVID-19. The company’s lead program VLA15 is in Phase 2 trials to treat Lyme disease and is partnered with<b>Pfizer Corporation</b>PFE 0.49%. Other clinical trials include VLA1553 to treat Chikungunya virus and VLA2001 to treat COVID-19. The company’s VLA1553 is the only known Phase 3 trial vaccine to treat Chikungunya, which could put it in the spotlight with spread to over 100 countries. Several of the company’s products have received Fast Track designation by the FDA.</p>\n<p><b>Onion Global:</b>Lifestyle brand company<b>Onion Global</b>NYSEOGplanson selling 12.5 million ADS at a price point of $7.25 to $9.25. The company targets fresh, fashionable and future brands, which it refers to as the 3Fs across China and parts of Asia. The company has over 4,000 brands in 23 categories sold in 43 countries. Onion Global is a top ten global lifestyle company in China. The company uses an omnichannel approach with its self operated ecommerce platform O’Mall, live streaming sales, third party sellers and offline sales. The company has 2.1 million active buyers and 15.5 million registered users.</p>\n<p><b>iPower:</b>Online hydroponic equipment seller<b>iPower Inc</b>NASDAQIPWplansto offer 5&nbsp;million shares at a price point of $9 to $11. The company offers its own brands and partnered brands through its websitewww.zenhydro.com. iPower-owned brands represented 76% of company sales in the six month period ending December 31, 2020. The company had sales of $26.2 million in the six month period ending December 31, 2020. Preliminary first-quarter revenue is expected to be in a range of $11.75 million to $12.75 million compared to $9.4 million in the prior year.</p>\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"IPW":"iPower Inc."},"is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1191168108","content_text":"The week of May 3 has several IPOs on the docket spread across sectors like consumer products, fashion, banking, vaccines and hydroponics. Here is a look at this week’s top offerings and details investors should know.\nWaterdrop:Working with insurance companies,WaterdropNYSEWDHseeksto have a positive social impact with its technology platform. Waterdrop has over 79.4 million cumulative customers and over 340 million donors to its crowdfunding platform, which is the largest medical crowdfunding platform in China.\nWaterdrop works with 62 insurance carriers and offers over 200 products to help customers and those seeking help with medical bills. The company had revenue of $464.1 million in fiscal 2020. The company plans on offering 30 million American depositary shares at a price point of $10 to $12.\nFive Star Bancorp:With branches in California,Five Star BancorpNASDAQFSBCisa regional bank company focused on the Sacramento market. The company ended 2020 with $1.8 billion in deposits and $1.5 billion in loans.\nFrom 2016 to 2020, the company saw compounded annual growth of 23.5% for assets, 23.8% for loans and 23.7% for deposits. First quarter preliminary numbers saw deposits grow 11.2% from the fourth quarter and loans grow 2.6% from the fourth quarter. The company plans on selling 5.265 million shares at a price point of $18 to $20.\nThe Honest Company:Clean lifestyle product companyThe Honest CompanyNASDAQHNSTcouldbe the most-watched IPO this week. The company was founded by actress Jessica Alba in 2012 in response to finding clean products and non-allergic reactions from products after giving birth.\nThe Honest Company prides itself in being “a conscious living company for today and tomorrow.” The company has grown from being a diapers-and-wipes company to covering every age and every life stage of its customers.\nThe Honest Company had revenue of $235.6 million in fiscal 2020, up 27.6% year-over-year. Diapers and wipes made up 63% of 2020 revenue, up 16.4% year-over-year. Skin and personal care product revenue represented 26% of sales in 2020 and were up 55% year-over-year. Household and wellness sales made up 11% of sales and had year-over-year growth of 116.5% in 2020. The Honest Company products can be purchased online from the company or sites likeAmazon.comAMZN 1.77%and in physical stores likeCostco Wholesale CorporationCOST 0.54%andTarget CorporationTGT 0.23%.\nFounder Alba will not sell any shares in the IPO and will own an estimated 6.1% of the company after the offering. The company isseekingto sell 25.8 million shares at a price point of $14 to $17.\nBowman Consulting Group:Professional services companyBowman Consulting GroupNASDAQBWMNoffersengineering solutions to customers. Bowman Consulting has over 2,200 customers who count on the company for services like planning, engineering, construction management, commissioning, geomatics, survey, land procurement and environmental consulting. The company had revenue of $122 million in the last fiscal year, up from $113.7 million in the prior year. Bowman Consulting plans to offer 3.1 million shares at a price point of $12 to $14.\nValneva:Vaccine companyValnevaNASDAQVLAplansto sell 7.1 million ordinary shares (3.55 million ADSs) at a price of $28.24. The company is focused on vaccine development in infectious diseases. Target areas include Lyme disease, the Chikungunya virus and COVID-19. The company’s lead program VLA15 is in Phase 2 trials to treat Lyme disease and is partnered withPfizer CorporationPFE 0.49%. Other clinical trials include VLA1553 to treat Chikungunya virus and VLA2001 to treat COVID-19. The company’s VLA1553 is the only known Phase 3 trial vaccine to treat Chikungunya, which could put it in the spotlight with spread to over 100 countries. Several of the company’s products have received Fast Track designation by the FDA.\nOnion Global:Lifestyle brand companyOnion GlobalNYSEOGplanson selling 12.5 million ADS at a price point of $7.25 to $9.25. The company targets fresh, fashionable and future brands, which it refers to as the 3Fs across China and parts of Asia. The company has over 4,000 brands in 23 categories sold in 43 countries. Onion Global is a top ten global lifestyle company in China. The company uses an omnichannel approach with its self operated ecommerce platform O’Mall, live streaming sales, third party sellers and offline sales. The company has 2.1 million active buyers and 15.5 million registered users.\niPower:Online hydroponic equipment selleriPower IncNASDAQIPWplansto offer 5 million shares at a price point of $9 to $11. The company offers its own brands and partnered brands through its websitewww.zenhydro.com. iPower-owned brands represented 76% of company sales in the six month period ending December 31, 2020. The company had sales of $26.2 million in the six month period ending December 31, 2020. Preliminary first-quarter revenue is expected to be in a range of $11.75 million to $12.75 million compared to $9.4 million in the prior year.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"IPW":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":596,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[{"author":{"id":"3573512309350380","authorId":"3573512309350380","name":"SSim","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/bc347d90f5e5fb868ce6d6c9cf5f4763","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"authorIdStr":"3573512309350380","idStr":"3573512309350380"},"content":"ReplY to comment Pls","text":"ReplY to comment Pls","html":"ReplY to comment Pls"}],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":340086555,"gmtCreate":1617322963877,"gmtModify":1704698719242,"author":{"id":"3575067142498671","authorId":"3575067142498671","name":"JWZ137","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/842968796125e5a418b21a3b4ab603ef","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3575067142498671","idStr":"3575067142498671"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Good","listText":"Good","text":"Good","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":6,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/340086555","repostId":"1175312581","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":570,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9083378858,"gmtCreate":1650075503939,"gmtModify":1676534642043,"author":{"id":"3575067142498671","authorId":"3575067142498671","name":"JWZ137","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/842968796125e5a418b21a3b4ab603ef","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3575067142498671","idStr":"3575067142498671"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Wow","listText":"Wow","text":"Wow","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9083378858","repostId":"2227638600","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":696,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0}],"lives":[]}