Mikinyaa personal page - To The Moon

Mikinyaa

Mikinyaa

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2024-09-13

$美光科技(MU)$ I'm researching into the analyst who issued the recent double downgrade of Micron. His record isn't very impressive.[开心] [开心] [开心]

2024-12-03

$SMCI 20250117 70.0 CALL$ Christmas comes early [财迷]

03-27

$超微电脑(SMCI)$ [财迷]

2022-09-23

OK

Sorry, the original content has been removed

2021-02-25

$Direxion Daily Regional Banks Bull 3X Shares(DPST)$ IN !!!

08-02

$超微电脑(SMCI)$ [财迷]

06-15

$Circle Internet Corp.(CRCL)$

2024-10-22

$二倍做多沪深300(Direxion)(CHAU)$

07-09

$三倍做多半导体ETF-Direxion Daily(SOXL)$

06-23

This aged like fine milk

Interpretation of changes | Circle's stock price fell 5.11% in night trading, which may be affected by U.S. regulatory uncertainty

06-19

$CoreWeave, Inc.(CRWV)$

06-19

$Circle Internet Corp.(CRCL)$

06-10

$三倍做多半导体ETF-Direxion Daily(SOXL)$ nice

05-29

$三倍做多半导体ETF-Direxion Daily(SOXL)$ [财迷]

05-22

$CoreWeave, Inc.(CRWV)$

05-15

$三倍做多半导体ETF-Direxion Daily(SOXL)$

05-12

$iShares费城交易所半导体ETF(SOXX)$

03-27

🤡

Is the ultra-microcomputer highlight moment coming to an end? Goldman Sachs shouts "sell"!

2024-12-24

🤡🤡🤡

Super Micro Computer: The Stock That's Doomed To Fail

2024-11-05

$三倍做多富时中国ETF-Direxion(YINN)$

$二倍做多沪深300(Direxion)(CHAU)$ [财迷] [财迷] [财迷]

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Daily(SOXL)$","images":[{"img":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/600c22c60388761482da29712bb472f2","width":"898","height":"1530"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/454466088325824","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1165,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":449080582848824,"gmtCreate":1750665069749,"gmtModify":1750665073579,"author":{"id":"3575534613319772","authorId":"3575534613319772","name":"Mikinyaa","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4a2c57746358b22078da48731022679c","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3575534613319772","idStr":"3575534613319772"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"This aged like fine milk","listText":"This aged like fine milk","text":"This aged like fine milk","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/449080582848824","repostId":"1176564486","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"1176564486","kind":"news","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"个股异动一手消息解读","home_visible":1,"media_name":"异动解读","id":"1092702339","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a81accab1e7ee4144dc051f71903a390"},"pubTimestamp":1750637078,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1176564486?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2025-06-23 08:04","market":"sg","language":"zh","title":"Interpretation of changes | Circle's stock price fell 5.11% in night trading, which may be affected by U.S. regulatory uncertainty","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1176564486","media":"异动解读","summary":"据报道，稳定币发行公司Circle Internet Corp. 在周日夜盘交易中股价大跌5.11%。这一异常走势可能与近期美国加密货币市场的监管环境有关。分析显示，尽管欧洲加密市场在MiCA框架下呈现增长态势，美国市场却面临监管不确定性的挑战。这种市场表现差异可能源于美国持续的监管不确定性。这种不确定性可能影响了投资者对Circle等美国加密货币公司的信心，导致其股价在非常规交易时段出现大幅波动。","content":"<p>According to reports, stablecoin issuer Circle Internet Corp. (CRCL) fell 5.11% in Sunday night trading. This unusual trend may be related to the recent regulatory environment in the U.S. cryptocurrency market.</p><p>Analysis shows that although the European encryption market is showing growth under the MiCA framework, the US market is facing the challenge of regulatory uncertainty. According to Paybis co-founder Konstantins Vasilenko, in the first quarter of 2025 following the MiCA regulation's entry into force, the volume of transactions from EU customers increased by 70% quarter-on-quarter. In contrast, retail trading activity in the U.S. market is trending downward, with only 18% of Coinbase's spot trading volume coming from retail investors, down from 40% in 2021.</p><p>This difference in market performance may stem from ongoing regulatory uncertainty in the United States. While U.S. President Trump and members of his administration have made pro-cryptocurrency rhetoric, comprehensive federal crypto legislation has not yet been introduced. This uncertainty may have affected investor confidence in U.S. crypto companies such as Circle, causing their shares to move sharply during unconventional trading sessions.</p>","source":"ai_movement_cn","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Interpretation of changes | Circle's stock price fell 5.11% in night trading, which may be affected by U.S. regulatory uncertainty</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nInterpretation of changes | Circle's stock price fell 5.11% in night trading, which may be affected by U.S. regulatory uncertainty\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/1092702339\">\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/a81accab1e7ee4144dc051f71903a390);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">异动解读 </p>\n<p class=\"h-time smaller\">2025-06-23 08:04</p>\n</div>\n</a>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>According to reports, stablecoin issuer Circle Internet Corp. (CRCL) fell 5.11% in Sunday night trading. This unusual trend may be related to the recent regulatory environment in the U.S. cryptocurrency market.</p><p>Analysis shows that although the European encryption market is showing growth under the MiCA framework, the US market is facing the challenge of regulatory uncertainty. According to Paybis co-founder Konstantins Vasilenko, in the first quarter of 2025 following the MiCA regulation's entry into force, the volume of transactions from EU customers increased by 70% quarter-on-quarter. In contrast, retail trading activity in the U.S. market is trending downward, with only 18% of Coinbase's spot trading volume coming from retail investors, down from 40% in 2021.</p><p>This difference in market performance may stem from ongoing regulatory uncertainty in the United States. While U.S. President Trump and members of his administration have made pro-cryptocurrency rhetoric, comprehensive federal crypto legislation has not yet been introduced. This uncertainty may have affected investor confidence in U.S. crypto companies such as Circle, causing their shares to move sharply during unconventional trading sessions.</p>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"CRCL":"Circle Internet Corp."},"source_url":"","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1176564486","content_text":"据报道，稳定币发行公司Circle Internet Corp.（CRCL）在周日夜盘交易中股价大跌5.11%。这一异常走势可能与近期美国加密货币市场的监管环境有关。\n分析显示，尽管欧洲加密市场在MiCA框架下呈现增长态势，美国市场却面临监管不确定性的挑战。据Paybis联合创始人Konstantins Vasilenko透露，MiCA法规生效后的2025年第一季度，欧盟客户的交易量环比增长了70%。相比之下，美国市场的散户交易活动呈下降趋势，Coinbase现货交易量中仅18%来自散户，低于2021年的40%。\n这种市场表现差异可能源于美国持续的监管不确定性。虽然美国总统特朗普及其政府成员发表了支持加密货币的言论，但尚未出台全面的联邦加密立法。这种不确定性可能影响了投资者对Circle等美国加密货币公司的信心，导致其股价在非常规交易时段出现大幅波动。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"CRCL":1}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":851,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":447521607979656,"gmtCreate":1750295969763,"gmtModify":1750295972813,"author":{"id":"3575534613319772","authorId":"3575534613319772","name":"Mikinyaa","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4a2c57746358b22078da48731022679c","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3575534613319772","idStr":"3575534613319772"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/CRWV\">$CoreWeave, Inc.(CRWV)$ </a>&nbsp;","listText":"<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/CRWV\">$CoreWeave, Inc.(CRWV)$ </a>&nbsp;","text":"$CoreWeave, Inc.(CRWV)$","images":[{"img":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/12d0163a2da4489de8ae0f9d880b984f","width":"898","height":"1530"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/447521607979656","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":720,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":447519285776840,"gmtCreate":1750295951816,"gmtModify":1750295955272,"author":{"id":"3575534613319772","authorId":"3575534613319772","name":"Mikinyaa","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4a2c57746358b22078da48731022679c","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3575534613319772","idStr":"3575534613319772"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/CRCL\">$Circle Internet Corp.(CRCL)$ </a>&nbsp;","listText":"<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/CRCL\">$Circle Internet Corp.(CRCL)$ </a>&nbsp;","text":"$Circle Internet Corp.(CRCL)$","images":[{"img":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/16b86c69128c4bd93b8f16b3a86adbc6","width":"898","height":"1530"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/447519285776840","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":913,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":446376403907144,"gmtCreate":1749969621202,"gmtModify":1749969624661,"author":{"id":"3575534613319772","authorId":"3575534613319772","name":"Mikinyaa","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4a2c57746358b22078da48731022679c","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3575534613319772","idStr":"3575534613319772"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/CRCL\">$Circle Internet Corp.(CRCL)$ </a>&nbsp;","listText":"<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/CRCL\">$Circle Internet Corp.(CRCL)$ </a>&nbsp;","text":"$Circle Internet Corp.(CRCL)$","images":[{"img":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/57460c1d99b8494ed621e6486d4f0e17","width":"898","height":"1530"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/446376403907144","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":983,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":444426274615912,"gmtCreate":1749526803235,"gmtModify":1749526807232,"author":{"id":"3575534613319772","authorId":"3575534613319772","name":"Mikinyaa","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4a2c57746358b22078da48731022679c","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3575534613319772","idStr":"3575534613319772"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/SOXL\">$三倍做多半导体ETF-Direxion Daily(SOXL)$ </a> nice","listText":"<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/SOXL\">$三倍做多半导体ETF-Direxion Daily(SOXL)$ </a> 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href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/SOXX\">$iShares费城交易所半导体ETF(SOXX)$ </a>&nbsp;","listText":"<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/SOXX\">$iShares费城交易所半导体ETF(SOXX)$ </a>&nbsp;","text":"$iShares费城交易所半导体ETF(SOXX)$","images":[{"img":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/374f42ff4605e3828330532c7a603ea2","width":"898","height":"1530"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/434368374579936","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":626,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":422665158963464,"gmtCreate":1744227123753,"gmtModify":1744227128397,"author":{"id":"3575534613319772","authorId":"3575534613319772","name":"Mikinyaa","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4a2c57746358b22078da48731022679c","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3575534613319772","idStr":"3575534613319772"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/SOXL\">$三倍做多半导体ETF-Direxion Daily(SOXL)$ </a>&nbsp;","listText":"<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/SOXL\">$三倍做多半导体ETF-Direxion Daily(SOXL)$ </a>&nbsp;","text":"$三倍做多半导体ETF-Direxion Daily(SOXL)$","images":[{"img":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/d31e5ec041955f87742b2175c896e109","width":"898","height":"1530"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/422665158963464","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":978,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":418164982767912,"gmtCreate":1743086962549,"gmtModify":1743086966034,"author":{"id":"3575534613319772","authorId":"3575534613319772","name":"Mikinyaa","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4a2c57746358b22078da48731022679c","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3575534613319772","idStr":"3575534613319772"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/SMCI\">$超微电脑(SMCI)$&nbsp;</a><v-v data-views=\"1\"></v-v>&nbsp;[财迷]&nbsp;&nbsp;","listText":"<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/SMCI\">$超微电脑(SMCI)$&nbsp;</a><v-v data-views=\"1\"></v-v>&nbsp;[财迷]&nbsp;&nbsp;","text":"$超微电脑(SMCI)$ [财迷]","images":[{"img":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/7fa9b71ab39963e74a1406fb6afc9d5c","width":"1903","height":"1839"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/418164982767912","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":961,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":418094312509680,"gmtCreate":1743085352758,"gmtModify":1743085355108,"author":{"id":"3575534613319772","authorId":"3575534613319772","name":"Mikinyaa","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4a2c57746358b22078da48731022679c","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3575534613319772","idStr":"3575534613319772"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"🤡","listText":"🤡","text":"🤡","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/418094312509680","repostId":"2522097743","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"2522097743","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1742891055,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/2522097743?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2025-03-25 16:24","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"Is the ultra-microcomputer highlight moment coming to an end? Goldman Sachs shouts \"sell\"!","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2522097743","media":"金十数据","summary":"高盛分析师对超微电脑持谨慎态度，并于周一下调其股票评级至“卖出”，警告该公司可能会在人工智能服务器市场中逐渐失去领先优势。高盛目前对超微电脑的12个月目标价为32美元，较此前的40美元有所下调。高盛数据显示，超微电脑的毛利率在2023财年达到峰值约18%，而在2024财年降至13.9%。由于AI服务器供应增加，超微电脑“已提及因竞争性定价带来的毛利压力。”此外，Ng对超微电脑2026财年实现400亿美元收入的预期持怀疑态度。","content":"<p><html><body><article><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/GS\">Goldman Sachs</a>Analysts' opinions<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/SMCI\">Ultra-microcomputer</a>(SMCI.O) was cautious and downgraded its stock to \"sell\" on Monday, warning the company could gradually lose its lead in the artificial intelligence (AI) server market.</p><p>A team of analysts led by Michael Ng pointed out that although the share price of Super Micro Computer (SMCI.O) has surged this year, it may face downside risks in the future.<strong>The main reasons include intensified competition, pressure on its already low gross profit margin, and</strong>The differentiation of AI server products is reduced.</p><p>\"Competition from OEM (Original Equipment Manufacturer) and ODM (Original Design Manufacturer) suppliers has increased, which could lead to less product differentiation and increased price pressure,\" Ng wrote in a note to customers.</p><p>Goldman's current 12-month price target for ultramicro computers is $32, down from the previous price of $40.<strong>The new price target is about below current levels</strong>24%。</p><p>Analysts pointed out,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/DELL\">Dell</a>(DELL.N) 's AI server business revenue will grow to US $9 billion in 2024, a significant increase from US $2 billion in 2023, and is expected to exceed US $15 billion in 2025. Furthermore,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/HPQ\">Hewlett-Packard</a>(HPQ.N) reportedly has secured a $1 billion order for AI servers from social media platform X.</p><p>\"The risk of increased competition is particularly acute as Super Micro generated 58% of its revenue in the last quarter from just two customers,\" Ng added.</p><p>Ng's worries and last week<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/JPM\">JPMorgan Chase</a>The analyst expressed a similar view, but he additionally pointed to concerns about the company's future gross margins.</p><p>According to Goldman Sachs data, the gross profit margin of Super Micro Computer peaked at about 18% in fiscal year 2023, while falling to 13.9% in fiscal year 2024.<strong>Ng</strong>It is forecast that this figure will drop to 12% in fiscal 2025 and may slip further to 11% in fiscal 2029.</p><p>As the supply of AI servers increases, ultramicro computers \"have mentioned that competitive pricing brings about<span>GROSS PROFIT</span>Pressure. \" Ng said in the report. He pointed out that gross profit was affected by<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NVDA\">Nvidia</a>(NVDA.O) The impact of the transition of the Hopper platform to the latest Blackwell product line, which initially experienced delays.</p><p>Additionally, Ng is skeptical about Super Micro's expectation of $40 billion in revenue in fiscal 2026.<strong>He predicted that the company's revenue would reach</strong>32 billion, \"reflecting our expectations of increased competition in the market.\"</p><p></article></body></html></p>","source":"tencent","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Is the ultra-microcomputer highlight moment coming to an end? Goldman Sachs shouts \"sell\"!</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nIs the ultra-microcomputer highlight moment coming to an end? Goldman Sachs shouts \"sell\"!\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">金十数据</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2025-03-25 16:24</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><html><body><article><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/GS\">Goldman Sachs</a>Analysts' opinions<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/SMCI\">Ultra-microcomputer</a>(SMCI.O) was cautious and downgraded its stock to \"sell\" on Monday, warning the company could gradually lose its lead in the artificial intelligence (AI) server market.</p><p>A team of analysts led by Michael Ng pointed out that although the share price of Super Micro Computer (SMCI.O) has surged this year, it may face downside risks in the future.<strong>The main reasons include intensified competition, pressure on its already low gross profit margin, and</strong>The differentiation of AI server products is reduced.</p><p>\"Competition from OEM (Original Equipment Manufacturer) and ODM (Original Design Manufacturer) suppliers has increased, which could lead to less product differentiation and increased price pressure,\" Ng wrote in a note to customers.</p><p>Goldman's current 12-month price target for ultramicro computers is $32, down from the previous price of $40.<strong>The new price target is about below current levels</strong>24%。</p><p>Analysts pointed out,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/DELL\">Dell</a>(DELL.N) 's AI server business revenue will grow to US $9 billion in 2024, a significant increase from US $2 billion in 2023, and is expected to exceed US $15 billion in 2025. Furthermore,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/HPQ\">Hewlett-Packard</a>(HPQ.N) reportedly has secured a $1 billion order for AI servers from social media platform X.</p><p>\"The risk of increased competition is particularly acute as Super Micro generated 58% of its revenue in the last quarter from just two customers,\" Ng added.</p><p>Ng's worries and last week<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/JPM\">JPMorgan Chase</a>The analyst expressed a similar view, but he additionally pointed to concerns about the company's future gross margins.</p><p>According to Goldman Sachs data, the gross profit margin of Super Micro Computer peaked at about 18% in fiscal year 2023, while falling to 13.9% in fiscal year 2024.<strong>Ng</strong>It is forecast that this figure will drop to 12% in fiscal 2025 and may slip further to 11% in fiscal 2029.</p><p>As the supply of AI servers increases, ultramicro computers \"have mentioned that competitive pricing brings about<span>GROSS PROFIT</span>Pressure. \" Ng said in the report. He pointed out that gross profit was affected by<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NVDA\">Nvidia</a>(NVDA.O) The impact of the transition of the Hopper platform to the latest Blackwell product line, which initially experienced delays.</p><p>Additionally, Ng is skeptical about Super Micro's expectation of $40 billion in revenue in fiscal 2026.<strong>He predicted that the company's revenue would reach</strong>32 billion, \"reflecting our expectations of increased competition in the market.\"</p><p></article></body></html></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> source：<a href=\"http://gu.qq.com/resources/shy/news/detail-v2/index.html#/?id=nesSN2025032516241797227192&s=b\">金十数据</a></p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"BK4516":"特朗普概念","LU2471134796.USD":"INVESCO GLOBAL EQUITY INCOME ADVANTAGE \"A\" (USD) INC","LU0096364046.USD":"CT (LUX) I AMERICAN \"DU\" (USD) ACC","IE0002270589.USD":"LEGG MASON CLEARBRIDGE VALUE \"A\" (USD) INC","IE00BSNM7G36.USD":"NEUBERGER BERMAN SYSTEMATIC GLOBAL SUSTAINABLE VALUE \"A\" (USD) ACC","BK4504":"桥水持仓","LU2750360641.GBP":"INVESCO GLOBAL EQUITY INCOME ADVANTAGE \"A\" (GBPHDG) INC","IE0034235188.USD":"PINEBRIDGE GLOBAL FOCUS EQUITY \"A\" (USD) ACC","LU2237438978.USD":"Amundi Funds US Pioneer A2 (C) USD","LU2750360997.AUD":"INVESCO GLOBAL EQUITY INCOME ADVANTAGE \"A\" (AUDHDG) INC","BK4588":"碎股","LU1791807156.HKD":"BGF WORLD FINANCIALS \"A2\" (HKDHDG) ACC","BK4550":"红杉资本持仓","LU2237443382.USD":"Aberdeen Standard SICAV I - Global Dynamic Dividend A MIncA USD","BK4170":"电脑硬件、储存设备及电脑周边","BK4552":"Archegos爆仓风波概念","GS":"高盛","LU2237443549.SGD":"Aberdeen Standard SICAV I - Global Dynamic Dividend A MIncA SGD-H","LU1868837300.USD":"CT (LUX) I AMERICAN FUND \"9\" (USD) ACC","LU2237443895.HKD":"abrdn SICAV I -  GLOBAL DYNAMIC DIVIDEND \"A\" (HKD) ACC","SMCI":"超微电脑","LU2237443622.USD":"Aberdeen Standard SICAV I - Global Dynamic Dividend A Acc USD","LU2237443465.HKD":"abrdn SICAV I -  GLOBAL DYNAMIC DIVIDEND \"A\" (HKD) INC","IE0004086264.USD":"BNY MELLON GLOBAL OPPORTUNITIES \"A\" (USD) ACC","LU2237443978.SGD":"Aberdeen Standard SICAV I - Global Dynamic Dividend A Acc SGD-H","IE00BFXG1179.USD":"BNY MELLON U.S. EQUITY INCOME \"B\" (USD) INC","LU1868836914.USD":"CT (LUX) I AMERICAN \"3\" (USD) ACC","LU1861215975.USD":"贝莱德新一代科技基金 A2","BK4543":"AI","LU0061475181.USD":"THREADNEEDLE (LUX) AMERICAN \"AU\" (USD) ACC","LU1868837136.USD":"CT (LUX) I AMERICAN \"8\" (USD) ACC","LU2471134523.USD":"INVESCO GLOBAL EQUITY INCOME ADVANTAGE \"A\" (USD) ACC","IE0004091025.USD":"BNY MELLON GLOBAL OPPORTUNITIES \"B\" (USD) ACC","LU1861220033.SGD":"Blackrock Next Generation Technology A2 SGD-H","IE00B19Z3581.USD":"Legg Mason ClearBridge - Value A Acc USD","BK4585":"ETF&股票定投概念","LU0053671581.USD":"摩根大通美国小盘成长股 A(dist)","LU2471134952.CNY":"INVESCO GLOBAL EQUITY INCOME ADVANTAGE \"A\" (CNYHDG) INC","LU1868836591.USD":"CT (LUX) I AMERICAN \"1U\"(USD) ACC","LU0106831901.USD":"贝莱德世界金融基金A2","BK4127":"投资银行业与经纪业","LU2471134879.HKD":"INVESCO GLOBAL EQUITY INCOME ADVANTAGE \"A\" (HKD) INC","BK4533":"AQR资本管理(全球第二大对冲基金)","LU1668664300.SGD":"Blackrock World Financials A2 SGD-H","LU1868836757.USD":"CT (LUX) I AMERICAN FUND \"2\" (USD) ACC","IE00B19Z3B42.SGD":"Legg Mason ClearBridge - Value A Acc SGD"},"source_url":"http://gu.qq.com/resources/shy/news/detail-v2/index.html#/?id=nesSN2025032516241797227192&s=b","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/9a95c1376e76363c1401fee7d3717173","article_id":"2522097743","content_text":"高盛分析师对超微电脑(SMCI.O)持谨慎态度，并于周一下调其股票评级至“卖出”，警告该公司可能会在人工智能（AI）服务器市场中逐渐失去领先优势。由Michael Ng领导的分析师团队指出，尽管超微电脑(SMCI.O)今年股价大涨，但未来可能会面临下跌风险，主要原因包括竞争加剧、其本就偏低的毛利率承压，以及AI服务器产品的差异化减少。“来自OEM（原始设备制造商）和ODM（原始设计制造商）供应商的竞争加剧，这可能导致产品差异化减少，并加大价格压力。”Ng在给客户的报告中写道。高盛目前对超微电脑的12个月目标价为32美元，较此前的40美元有所下调。新目标价较当前水平低约24%。分析师指出，戴尔(DELL.N)的AI服务器业务收入在2024年增长至90亿美元，相较2023年的20亿美元大幅提升，并预计2025年将超过150亿美元。此外，惠普(HPQ.N)reportedly已获得社交媒体平台X一份价值10亿美元的AI服务器订单。“竞争加剧的风险尤为突出，因为Super Micro在上个季度的收入中，有58%来自仅两家客户。”Ng补充道。Ng的担忧与上周摩根大通分析师表达的观点类似，但他额外指出了对公司未来毛利率的担忧。高盛数据显示，超微电脑的毛利率在2023财年达到峰值约18%，而在2024财年降至13.9%。Ng预测该数据将在2025财年降至12%，并可能在2029财年进一步下滑至11%。由于AI服务器供应增加，超微电脑“已提及因竞争性定价带来的毛利压力。”Ng在报告中表示。他指出，毛利受到了从英伟达(NVDA.O)Hopper平台过渡至最新Blackwell产品线的影响，而这一过渡最初还曾经历延迟。此外，Ng对超微电脑2026财年实现400亿美元收入的预期持怀疑态度。他预测该公司的收入将达到320亿美元，“反映出我们对市场竞争加剧的预期。”","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"GS":0.9,"SMCI":1}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":875,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":385810220921352,"gmtCreate":1735232593404,"gmtModify":1735232596444,"author":{"id":"3575534613319772","authorId":"3575534613319772","name":"Mikinyaa","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4a2c57746358b22078da48731022679c","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3575534613319772","idStr":"3575534613319772"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"🤡","listText":"🤡","text":"🤡","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/385810220921352","repostId":"2494837705","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"2494837705","kind":"highlight","pubTimestamp":1735205670,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/2494837705?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2024-12-26 17:34","market":"hk","language":"zh","title":"Ultra-microcomputer shareholders should be careful: equity dilution + debt pressure double attack","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2494837705","media":"智通财经网","summary":"智通财经APP获悉，Seeking Alpha分析师Bashar Issa详细剖析了超微电脑近期的市场动态。首要的是，超微电脑成功说服纳斯达克延长其提交年度报告的截止日期，此举有效缓解了市场对该公司退市风险的担忧，进而触发了股价的大幅上涨。据报道，本月，超微电脑 与 Evercore 接洽以筹集更多现金。例如，超微电脑尚未披露2024年9月止的三个月的审计财务报表。本月初，超微电脑的首席执行官表达了对公司避免纳斯达克退市的坚定信心。","content":"<p><html><head></head><body>Zhitong Finance APP learned that Seeking Alpha analyst Bashar Issa analyzed in detail<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/SMCI\">Ultra-microcomputer</a>(SMCI.US) Recent Market Dynamics. He noted that Super Micro has achieved two of the three key catalysts after successfully hiring new auditors and receiving Nasdaq approval to extend the deadline for delayed submission of audited quarterly and annual results to February 25, 2025. The string of positive developments has pushed the company's shares up 73% since then. However, the third catalyst-the favorable conclusion of the Justice Department investigation-has not yet been reached, and ultramicro computers still face a series of challenges, and the road to full recovery is still long.</p><p>It is understood that Bashar Issa elaborated on the three major catalysts that ultramicro computers are about to face in a previous article. First and foremost, Super Microcomputer successfully persuaded Nasdaq to extend the deadline for filing its annual report, which effectively alleviated the market's concerns about the company's delisting risk, and in turn triggered a sharp rise in the stock price. Secondly, Super Micro Computer quickly hired new auditors and is expected to finally release its annual report. This progress is expected to solve the current compliance problems and have a positive impact on the company. Finally, AMC needs to resolve issues related to the Justice Department's investigation and find a clear path to restore Nasdaq's compliance status, which will significantly boost market confidence.</p><p>While Ultramicro has emerged as a notable beneficiary of the artificial intelligence (AI) craze and global technology trends, its sales have more than doubled from $7.1 billion in June 2023 to $14.9 billion in June 2024 in just 12 months, the company still faces multiple challenges.</p><p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/4a2e3750c59ffb7c8714e26ffb6f0e22\" alt=\"图1\" title=\"图1\" tg-width=\"1267\" tg-height=\"843\"/><span>Figure 1</span></p><p>On the one hand, despite relatively low capital requirements, AMC is actively raising funds through equity and debt markets. During the nine months to June 2024, the company raised $2.5 billion in equity funding while increasing debt from $100 million to $1.7 billion. According to reports, this month, ultramicro computers and<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/EVR\">Evercore</a>Approach to raise more cash. However, this kind of fund-raising behavior has caused investors to question its cash cycle management.</p><p>These signs clearly point to SMCI's problems with cash flow management, especially inventory accumulation related to sales growth. The lack of detailed profit margin and profitability reports makes it difficult for investors to tell whether SMCI is pursuing sustainable profit growth or simply expanding market share regardless of cost. It is worth noting that despite<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/DELL\">Dell</a>(DELL.US) and<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/HPE\">HPE</a>(HPE.US) has the same business capabilities as Super Micro Computer, but Super Micro Computer has become the main beneficiary of the market boom due to its competitive position in the field of AI server rack supply, especially in terms of price competition.</p><p>On the other hand, despite the substantial increase in sales, the market share of supermicro computers has declined, and the profit margin is gradually shrinking. For example, AMC has not disclosed its audited financial statements for the three months ending September 2024 (i.e. the first quarter of fiscal year 2025). However, according to a press release issued last month, the company expects sales for the quarter to be between $5.9 billion and $6 billion, a significant increase of nearly 180% year-over-year and an increase of 11% from the fourth quarter of 2024 (the three months ending June 2024) reported $5.3 billion. Although this growth figure is encouraging, it is still below the previous estimate of $6 billion to $7 billion range.</p><p>What's more interesting is that despite the double-digit sales growth of supermicrocomputers, its market share seems to be shrinking. With<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NVDA\">Nvidia</a>Take AI data center sales as an example. As a key indicator of the market, it grew by 17% month-on-month in the three months ending October 2024, exceeding SMCI's 11% month-on-month growth rate.</p><p>Similarly, Dell's data center sales surged 58% to $7.4 billion in the three months to November 2024, while HPE reported a 32% increase in server sales over the same period. Combined with the trend that SMCI expects sales to decline in the three months ending December 2024, these data all suggest that SMCI's market share is being eroded.</p><p>Super Microcomputer's current unaudited profit margin of 13% shows some robustness, but the company expects the profit margin to shrink to 12% in the following December quarter, an expectation that reflects the increased competition in the market.</p><p>At the valuation level, Bashar Issa pointed out that although Super Microcomputer's expected P/E (based on Wall Street forecasts of non-GAAP earnings per share of $2.8 for the twelve months ending June 2025, corresponding to 11 times P/E) appears Attractive, the company's valuation is actually not undervalued given its expectations of declining sales, loss of market share, declining profit margins, uncertainty of the Justice Department investigation, and possible delisting risks if it fails to submit an audit report by February 2025.</p><p>In contrast, Micron (MU.US), a well-managed LPDDR5 and HBM3E memory chip supplier, has an expected P/E of 14x, and blue-chip company and leading server supplier HPE Technology (HPE.US) has a trading P/E of 10x, while Dell (DELL.US) expects a P/E of 14x. Although some companies have higher P/E than ADMC, this valuation is still within the peer average considering ADMC's growth premium is stripped off (especially considering its forecast of sales decline in the second quarter of 2025).</p><p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/1ddc0443b5a039393439ef9f748e0753\" alt=\"图2\" title=\"图2\" tg-width=\"2529\" tg-height=\"1119\"/><span>Figure 2</span></p><p>In the article, Bashar Issa expressed his cautious attitude towards the future development of ultramicro computers. He pointed out that although the main factor driving the stock price increase in the short term is whether Super Micro Computer can successfully submit delayed audit reports, in the long term, the ongoing Justice Department investigation and the company's endless demand for cash have raised people's questions about its cash cycle management. Questions suggest that even if Super Micro Computer successfully submits audit reports by February 2025, its road to full recovery is still full of uncertainty.</p><p>It is worth mentioning that during the recent earnings call, management revealed to shareholders that its earnings per share forecast is based on 650 million shares outstanding, which is higher than the number mentioned in the June 2024 quarterly report. The number of shares outstanding is 100 million more. Earlier this month, the CEO of Super Micro Computer expressed firm confidence that the company would avoid delisting from Nasdaq.</p><p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/7a9fb1e1e6535febc9994a7463a805c4\" alt=\"图3\" title=\"图3\" tg-width=\"1263\" tg-height=\"871\"/><span>Figure 3</span></p><p>However, it remains to be seen whether this optimism holds up. There is no doubt that supermicrocomputers are facing the loss of market share and shrinking profit margins, and equally grim is that the company is constantly diluting shareholders' equity and accumulating more debt.</p><p></body></html></p>","source":"highlight_zhitongcaijin","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Ultra-microcomputer shareholders should be careful: equity dilution + debt pressure double attack</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nUltra-microcomputer shareholders should be careful: equity dilution + debt pressure double attack\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">智通财经网</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2024-12-26 17:34</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><html><head></head><body>Zhitong Finance APP learned that Seeking Alpha analyst Bashar Issa analyzed in detail<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/SMCI\">Ultra-microcomputer</a>(SMCI.US) Recent Market Dynamics. He noted that Super Micro has achieved two of the three key catalysts after successfully hiring new auditors and receiving Nasdaq approval to extend the deadline for delayed submission of audited quarterly and annual results to February 25, 2025. The string of positive developments has pushed the company's shares up 73% since then. However, the third catalyst-the favorable conclusion of the Justice Department investigation-has not yet been reached, and ultramicro computers still face a series of challenges, and the road to full recovery is still long.</p><p>It is understood that Bashar Issa elaborated on the three major catalysts that ultramicro computers are about to face in a previous article. First and foremost, Super Microcomputer successfully persuaded Nasdaq to extend the deadline for filing its annual report, which effectively alleviated the market's concerns about the company's delisting risk, and in turn triggered a sharp rise in the stock price. Secondly, Super Micro Computer quickly hired new auditors and is expected to finally release its annual report. This progress is expected to solve the current compliance problems and have a positive impact on the company. Finally, AMC needs to resolve issues related to the Justice Department's investigation and find a clear path to restore Nasdaq's compliance status, which will significantly boost market confidence.</p><p>While Ultramicro has emerged as a notable beneficiary of the artificial intelligence (AI) craze and global technology trends, its sales have more than doubled from $7.1 billion in June 2023 to $14.9 billion in June 2024 in just 12 months, the company still faces multiple challenges.</p><p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/4a2e3750c59ffb7c8714e26ffb6f0e22\" alt=\"图1\" title=\"图1\" tg-width=\"1267\" tg-height=\"843\"/><span>Figure 1</span></p><p>On the one hand, despite relatively low capital requirements, AMC is actively raising funds through equity and debt markets. During the nine months to June 2024, the company raised $2.5 billion in equity funding while increasing debt from $100 million to $1.7 billion. According to reports, this month, ultramicro computers and<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/EVR\">Evercore</a>Approach to raise more cash. However, this kind of fund-raising behavior has caused investors to question its cash cycle management.</p><p>These signs clearly point to SMCI's problems with cash flow management, especially inventory accumulation related to sales growth. The lack of detailed profit margin and profitability reports makes it difficult for investors to tell whether SMCI is pursuing sustainable profit growth or simply expanding market share regardless of cost. It is worth noting that despite<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/DELL\">Dell</a>(DELL.US) and<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/HPE\">HPE</a>(HPE.US) has the same business capabilities as Super Micro Computer, but Super Micro Computer has become the main beneficiary of the market boom due to its competitive position in the field of AI server rack supply, especially in terms of price competition.</p><p>On the other hand, despite the substantial increase in sales, the market share of supermicro computers has declined, and the profit margin is gradually shrinking. For example, AMC has not disclosed its audited financial statements for the three months ending September 2024 (i.e. the first quarter of fiscal year 2025). However, according to a press release issued last month, the company expects sales for the quarter to be between $5.9 billion and $6 billion, a significant increase of nearly 180% year-over-year and an increase of 11% from the fourth quarter of 2024 (the three months ending June 2024) reported $5.3 billion. Although this growth figure is encouraging, it is still below the previous estimate of $6 billion to $7 billion range.</p><p>What's more interesting is that despite the double-digit sales growth of supermicrocomputers, its market share seems to be shrinking. With<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NVDA\">Nvidia</a>Take AI data center sales as an example. As a key indicator of the market, it grew by 17% month-on-month in the three months ending October 2024, exceeding SMCI's 11% month-on-month growth rate.</p><p>Similarly, Dell's data center sales surged 58% to $7.4 billion in the three months to November 2024, while HPE reported a 32% increase in server sales over the same period. Combined with the trend that SMCI expects sales to decline in the three months ending December 2024, these data all suggest that SMCI's market share is being eroded.</p><p>Super Microcomputer's current unaudited profit margin of 13% shows some robustness, but the company expects the profit margin to shrink to 12% in the following December quarter, an expectation that reflects the increased competition in the market.</p><p>At the valuation level, Bashar Issa pointed out that although Super Microcomputer's expected P/E (based on Wall Street forecasts of non-GAAP earnings per share of $2.8 for the twelve months ending June 2025, corresponding to 11 times P/E) appears Attractive, the company's valuation is actually not undervalued given its expectations of declining sales, loss of market share, declining profit margins, uncertainty of the Justice Department investigation, and possible delisting risks if it fails to submit an audit report by February 2025.</p><p>In contrast, Micron (MU.US), a well-managed LPDDR5 and HBM3E memory chip supplier, has an expected P/E of 14x, and blue-chip company and leading server supplier HPE Technology (HPE.US) has a trading P/E of 10x, while Dell (DELL.US) expects a P/E of 14x. Although some companies have higher P/E than ADMC, this valuation is still within the peer average considering ADMC's growth premium is stripped off (especially considering its forecast of sales decline in the second quarter of 2025).</p><p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/1ddc0443b5a039393439ef9f748e0753\" alt=\"图2\" title=\"图2\" tg-width=\"2529\" tg-height=\"1119\"/><span>Figure 2</span></p><p>In the article, Bashar Issa expressed his cautious attitude towards the future development of ultramicro computers. He pointed out that although the main factor driving the stock price increase in the short term is whether Super Micro Computer can successfully submit delayed audit reports, in the long term, the ongoing Justice Department investigation and the company's endless demand for cash have raised people's questions about its cash cycle management. Questions suggest that even if Super Micro Computer successfully submits audit reports by February 2025, its road to full recovery is still full of uncertainty.</p><p>It is worth mentioning that during the recent earnings call, management revealed to shareholders that its earnings per share forecast is based on 650 million shares outstanding, which is higher than the number mentioned in the June 2024 quarterly report. The number of shares outstanding is 100 million more. Earlier this month, the CEO of Super Micro Computer expressed firm confidence that the company would avoid delisting from Nasdaq.</p><p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/7a9fb1e1e6535febc9994a7463a805c4\" alt=\"图3\" title=\"图3\" tg-width=\"1263\" tg-height=\"871\"/><span>Figure 3</span></p><p>However, it remains to be seen whether this optimism holds up. There is no doubt that supermicrocomputers are facing the loss of market share and shrinking profit margins, and equally grim is that the company is constantly diluting shareholders' equity and accumulating more debt.</p><p></body></html></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> source：<a href=\"http://www.zhitongcaijing.com/content/detail/1229618.html\">智通财经网</a></p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/9dc435414a5bbb938c91493e2206dabe","relate_stocks":{"BK4585":"ETF&股票定投概念","LU1861220033.SGD":"Blackrock Next Generation Technology A2 SGD-H","BK4170":"电脑硬件、储存设备及电脑周边","SMCI":"超微电脑","BK4588":"碎股","LU0053671581.USD":"摩根大通美国小盘成长股 A(dist)","LU1861215975.USD":"贝莱德新一代科技基金 A2"},"source_url":"http://www.zhitongcaijing.com/content/detail/1229618.html","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/6ca2dcdccfa2217fb20a0351f4efe814","article_id":"2494837705","content_text":"智通财经APP获悉，Seeking Alpha分析师Bashar Issa详细剖析了超微电脑(SMCI.US)近期的市场动态。他指出，超微电脑在成功聘请新审计师并获得纳斯达克批准将延迟提交的经审计季度和年度业绩的截止日期延长至2025年2月25日后，已经实现三个关键催化剂中的两个。这一连串的正面进展推动该公司股价自那时起飙升了73%。然而，第三个催化剂——司法部调查的有利结论——尚未达成，且超微电脑仍面临一系列挑战，全面复苏之路依然漫长。据了解，Bashar Issa在之前的文章中详细阐述了超微电脑即将面临的三大催化剂。首要的是，超微电脑成功说服纳斯达克延长其提交年度报告的截止日期，此举有效缓解了市场对该公司退市风险的担忧，进而触发了股价的大幅上涨。其次，超微电脑迅速聘请了新的审计师，并有望最终发布其年度报告，这一进展有望解决当前的合规问题，为公司带来正面影响。最后，超微电脑需解决与司法部的调查相关的问题，并找到一条明确的路径以恢复纳斯达克的合规状态，这将显著提升市场信心。尽管超微电脑已成为人工智能(AI)热潮和全球技术趋势的显著受益者，其销售额在短短12个月内从2023年6月的71亿美元增长至2024年6月的149亿美元，翻了一番多，但该公司仍面临多重挑战。图1一方面，尽管资本需求相对较低，超微电脑仍在积极通过股权和债务市场筹集资金。在截至2024年6月的九个月内，该公司筹集了25亿美元的股权资金，同时债务从1亿美元增加至17亿美元。据报道，本月，超微电脑 与 Evercore 接洽以筹集更多现金。然而，这种筹资行为引发了投资者对其现金周期管理的质疑。这些迹象明确指向了SMCI在现金流管理上存在的问题，尤其是与销售增长相关的库存积累。缺少详尽的利润率和盈利能力报告，使得投资者难以分辨SMCI是在追求可持续的利润增长，还是仅仅为了扩张市场份额而不计成本。值得注意的是，尽管戴尔(DELL.US)和慧与科技(HPE.US)具备与超微电脑相同的业务能力，超微电脑却因其在AI服务器机架供应领域的竞争地位而成为市场热潮的主要受益者，尤其是在价格竞争方面。另一方面，尽管销售额大幅增长，但超微电脑的市场份额却有所下降，利润率也在逐渐收缩。例如，超微电脑尚未披露2024年9月止的三个月(即2025财年第一季度)的审计财务报表。不过，根据上个月发布的新闻稿，公司预计该季度销售额将介于59亿至60亿美元，同比大幅增长近180%，较2024年第四季度(截至2024年6月的三个月)报告的53亿美元增长了11%。尽管这一增长数据令人鼓舞，但仍低于此前预估的60亿至70亿美元的范围。更引人关注的是，尽管超微电脑实现了两位数的销售额增长，但其市场份额似乎正在缩减。以英伟达的AI数据中心销售额为例，作为市场的一个关键指标，其在截至2024年10月的三个月内环比增长了17%，超出了SMCI的11%环比增长率。同样，戴尔的数据中心销售额在截至2024年11月的三个月内激增58%，达到74亿美元，而慧与科技在同一时期报告服务器销售额增长了32%。结合SMCI预计在截至2024年12月的三个月内销售额将下降的趋势，这些数据均表明SMCI的市场份额正在遭受侵蚀。超微电脑目前未经审计的利润率为13%，显示出一定的稳健性，但公司预计在接下来的12月季度，利润率将缩减至12%，这一预期反映了市场竞争的加剧。在估值层面，Bashar Issa指出，尽管超微电脑的预期市盈率(基于华尔街预测的截至2025年6月的十二个月非GAAP每股收益为2.8美元，对应11倍市盈率)看似具有吸引力，但考虑到其销售额下降的预期、市场份额的损失、利润率的下滑、司法部调查的不确定性以及若未能在2025年2月前提交审计报告可能面临的退市风险，该公司的估值实际上并未被低估。相比之下，管理良好的LPDDR5和HBM3E内存芯片供应商美光(MU.US)的预期市盈率为14倍，蓝筹公司和领先的服务器供应商慧与科技(HPE.US)的交易市盈率为10倍，而戴尔(DELL.US)的预期市盈率为14倍。尽管部分公司的市盈率高于超微电脑，但考虑到超微电脑的增长溢价被剥离(尤其是考虑到其2025年第二季度销售下滑的预测)，这一估值仍在同行平均水平范围内。图2Bashar Issa在文章中表达了对超微电脑未来发展的审慎态度。他指出，尽管短期内推动股价上涨的主要因素是超微电脑能否成功提交延迟的审计报告，但长期来看，司法部调查的持续进行以及该公司对现金的无尽需求引发了人们对其现金周期管理的质疑均表明，即使超微电脑成功在2025年2月前提交审计报告，其全面复苏之路依然充满不确定性。值得一提的是，在最近的财报电话会议上，管理层向股东透露，其每股收益的预测是基于6.5亿股流通股的基础上，这比2024年6月季度报告中所提及的流通股数量多出1亿股。本月初，超微电脑的首席执行官表达了对公司避免纳斯达克退市的坚定信心。图3然而，这一乐观态度是否站得住脚还有待观察。不容置疑的是，超微电脑正面临市场份额的流失和利润率的缩减，而同样严峻的是，公司正在不断稀释股东的权益，并积累更多的债务。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"SMCI":1.1}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1584,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":385078762451392,"gmtCreate":1735054012529,"gmtModify":1735054015804,"author":{"id":"3575534613319772","authorId":"3575534613319772","name":"Mikinyaa","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4a2c57746358b22078da48731022679c","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3575534613319772","idStr":"3575534613319772"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"🤡🤡🤡","listText":"🤡🤡🤡","text":"🤡🤡🤡","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/385078762451392","repostId":"1181162347","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"1181162347","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1735033114,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1181162347?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2024-12-24 17:38","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Super Micro Computer: The Stock That's Doomed To Fail","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1181162347","media":"Seeking Alpha","summary":"SummarySuper Micro Computer lost more than half of its value in the last six months.The company is currently in the middle of an accounting scandal that could result in the delisting of its stock from","content":"<html><head></head><body><h2 id=\"id_3899041729\">Summary</h2><ul style=\"\"><li><p>Super Micro Computer lost more than half of its value in the last six months.</p></li><li><p>The company is currently in the middle of an accounting scandal that could result in the delisting of its stock from Nasdaq.</p></li><li><p>Even if Super Micro Computer overcomes all the current challenges that it faces, its upside could still be limited because of the recent poor performance of its business.</p></li></ul><p>The accounting scandal that began a few months ago has tarnished <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/SMCI\">Super Micro Computer</a>’s stock, which is currently trading close to its 52-week lows. Although some might think that the worst for the company is behind it, we believe that any potential upside is not worth opening a position at this stage. Super Micro still faces some major risks that in our opinion make its stock uninvestable right now.</p><h2 id=\"id_1730226959\">This Has Been A Rollercoaster</h2><p>After the impressive performance in the first half of 2024, Super Micro’s stock lost all of its momentum in the second half of the year and depreciated by over 50% in the last six months. The real troubles first started in late August when a popular research firm Hindenburg published a bearish report on the company. In the report, Hindenburg accused Super Micro of failing to comply with the sanctions and export controls and highlighted various governance-related issues. The report also stated that Super Micro is engaged in <em>continued proper revenue recognition</em>. This is something that the company was already doing in the past and it resulted in the delisting of its stock from Nasdaq in 2018 and a charge by the Security and Exchange Commission in 2020.</p><p>Shortly after the report was released, the U.S. Department of Justice opened a probe against the company that is still ongoing. After that, Super Micro’s auditor Ernst &amp; Young resigned, which spooked the market and prevented the company from releasing its earnings report on time. This has led to Nasdaq sending Super Micro a non-compliance letter, which created a new delisting risk. Following all of that, Super Micro was also removed from the Nasdaq 100 and its stock continues to trade in a distressed territory.</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/6722ddfb7b5165bd704a94eed7e38fbd\" alt=\"Super Micro’s performance\" title=\"Super Micro’s performance\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"259\"/><span>Super Micro’s performance</span></p><p>The good thing for Super Micro in all of this is that Nasdaq extended the reporting time for the company, which now needs to release all the missing quarterly and annual filings by February 25, 2025. If that doesn’t happen, then we’ll likely see a delisting of its shares from the exchange like it was a few years ago.</p><p>However, even if there have been no wrongdoings and Super Micro overcomes all the current legal and regulatory challenges, the upside for its shares could still be limited.</p><p>Last month, the company already released its preliminary Q1 earnings results, which showed that its revenues are expected to be between $5.9 billion and $6 billion. This is below the Wall Street consensus of $6.79 billion and also below the company’s initial guidance of between $6 billion and $7 billion. If the final report for the period comes out with the same numbers, then the disappointing sales numbers along with the inability to reach its own forecast might indicate that Super Micro’s growth opportunities are limited.</p><p>From the publicly available reports, we know that Elon Musk’s xAI firm recently started to pull orders for the AI servers from Super Micro to Dell (DELL). It appears that Nvidia (NVDA) has been doing the same thing recently, while Citi (C) named Dell and HP Enterprise (HPE) as the biggest winners in this situation. Even Super Micro’s preliminary outlook for Q2 indicates that the company is expected to generate only between $5.5 billion and $6.1 billion in revenues, below the consensus of $6.79 billion. There are also reports that Super Micro is now looking to raise additional capital, which suggests that the company might have liquidity issues as orders are being canceled. This is why the company’s upside indeed could be limited even if Super Micro overcomes all the challenges that it currently faces.</p><h2 id=\"id_4134804721\">Potential Upside Ahead?</h2><p>There are still several positive things that need to be considered. After the accounting scandal happened, Super Micro launched an internal investigation, which found no misconduct. More importantly, Super Micro agreed with the recommendation of the committee behind the investigation to replace its CFO and said that it doesn’t expect any restatement of its previous earnings reports.</p><p>Super Micro has also hired BDO USA as its new auditor to review the company’s financial data and approve all the necessary earnings reports before February 25. If the reports come out on time, then Super Micro would likely be able to avoid delisting, which could give a boost to the share price despite the disappointing performance of the business in the recent quarter.</p><p>In addition, as the AI-server market is expected to grow by 55% and be worth $252 billion next year, Super Micro might have an opportunity to improve its performance next year and exceed the expectations that were recently given by the company along with the preliminary data. This could also boost the share price next year.</p><h2 id=\"id_2218143786\">The Real Value of Super Micro Computer</h2><p>When it comes to valuing Super Micro, we used the currently available data that the company previously reported due to the lack of alternatives. This is something that investors need to keep in mind in light of the recent accounting scandal.</p><p>The tax rate in our model is 15%, which is below the current corporate tax rate in the United States. Given that under the Trump administration we could see another tax reform that lowers corporate taxes, we believe that it makes sense to use a rate that’s lower than today’s standard rate when forecasting the company’s performance for the next few years. The perpetual growth rate is 3%, which is similar to the historical GDP and inflation rate. We value Super Micro when it’s trading at $31.59 per share and the cash and long-term debt data was taken from the latest available earnings report.</p><p>The discount rate in the model is 7.89%. We arrived at that rate by calculating Super Micro’s after-tax cost of debt using mostly its TTM data, and the cost of equity. For the cost of equity calculation, we used the risk-free rate of 4.40%, beta of 1.28, and the market return rate of 7.69%. We then weighted the company’s debt and equity to arrive at our discount rate.</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/a987e0d40ca26fc2c7ef3eb9271b03d3\" alt=\"Super Micro Computer’s valuation model\" title=\"Super Micro Computer’s valuation model\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"181\"/><span>Super Micro Computer’s valuation model</span></p><p>In the forecast table below, our sales and EBIT assumptions are mostly similar to the overall consensus for the next couple of years. After that, we expect a gradual normalization of growth rates across the semiconductor industry to more stable levels once the chip capacity issues caused by AI-related demand are resolved. The bottom part of the forecast table mostly aligns with Super Micro’s historical performance and doesn’t have a significant impact on the FCF calculation.</p><p>With all of those assumptions, our valuation model shows that Super Micro’s enterprise value is $18.91 billion, which is close to Seeking Alpha&#39;s enterprise value estimates. We then calculated Super Micro’s equity value by adding cash to the enterprise value and subtracting the long-term debt. In our case, Super Micro’s equity value is $18.80 billion. We then dividend the company’s equity value by the number of its outstanding shares and figured out that Super Micro’s intrinsic value is $29.28 per share, which is below but also fairly close to the current market price at the time of this writing.</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/0974837dafcedfd5e245c0d9cc5b4280\" alt=\"Super Micro Computer’s valuation model\" title=\"Super Micro Computer’s valuation model\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"228\"/><span>Super Micro Computer’s valuation model</span></p><h2 id=\"id_3934436656\">Final Thoughts</h2><p>Our valuation model clearly shows that even if all the previously reported numbers are correct and the current outlook along with the street assumptions are realistic, Super Micro’s stock is still not a good investment. As the AI hype train appears to be losing steam while the number of growth opportunities is limited, giving Super Micro a rating of SELL is the most appropriate thing to do right now.</p><p>We also think that there are much better semiconductor names on the market right now that are not in the middle of an accounting scandal. In our opinion, long-term investors should rather look for them than bet on a speculative play like Super Micro, which already lost more than half of its value in the last six months.</p></body></html>","source":"lsy1728464409321","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Super Micro Computer: The Stock That's Doomed To Fail</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nSuper Micro Computer: The Stock That's Doomed To Fail\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2024-12-24 17:38 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://seekingalpha.com/article/4746111-super-micro-computer-the-stock-thats-doomed-to-fail><strong>Seeking Alpha</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>SummarySuper Micro Computer lost more than half of its value in the last six months.The company is currently in the middle of an accounting scandal that could result in the delisting of its stock from...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4746111-super-micro-computer-the-stock-thats-doomed-to-fail\">Source Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"SMCI":"超微电脑"},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4746111-super-micro-computer-the-stock-thats-doomed-to-fail","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1181162347","content_text":"SummarySuper Micro Computer lost more than half of its value in the last six months.The company is currently in the middle of an accounting scandal that could result in the delisting of its stock from Nasdaq.Even if Super Micro Computer overcomes all the current challenges that it faces, its upside could still be limited because of the recent poor performance of its business.The accounting scandal that began a few months ago has tarnished Super Micro Computer’s stock, which is currently trading close to its 52-week lows. Although some might think that the worst for the company is behind it, we believe that any potential upside is not worth opening a position at this stage. Super Micro still faces some major risks that in our opinion make its stock uninvestable right now.This Has Been A RollercoasterAfter the impressive performance in the first half of 2024, Super Micro’s stock lost all of its momentum in the second half of the year and depreciated by over 50% in the last six months. The real troubles first started in late August when a popular research firm Hindenburg published a bearish report on the company. In the report, Hindenburg accused Super Micro of failing to comply with the sanctions and export controls and highlighted various governance-related issues. The report also stated that Super Micro is engaged in continued proper revenue recognition. This is something that the company was already doing in the past and it resulted in the delisting of its stock from Nasdaq in 2018 and a charge by the Security and Exchange Commission in 2020.Shortly after the report was released, the U.S. Department of Justice opened a probe against the company that is still ongoing. After that, Super Micro’s auditor Ernst & Young resigned, which spooked the market and prevented the company from releasing its earnings report on time. This has led to Nasdaq sending Super Micro a non-compliance letter, which created a new delisting risk. Following all of that, Super Micro was also removed from the Nasdaq 100 and its stock continues to trade in a distressed territory.Super Micro’s performanceThe good thing for Super Micro in all of this is that Nasdaq extended the reporting time for the company, which now needs to release all the missing quarterly and annual filings by February 25, 2025. If that doesn’t happen, then we’ll likely see a delisting of its shares from the exchange like it was a few years ago.However, even if there have been no wrongdoings and Super Micro overcomes all the current legal and regulatory challenges, the upside for its shares could still be limited.Last month, the company already released its preliminary Q1 earnings results, which showed that its revenues are expected to be between $5.9 billion and $6 billion. This is below the Wall Street consensus of $6.79 billion and also below the company’s initial guidance of between $6 billion and $7 billion. If the final report for the period comes out with the same numbers, then the disappointing sales numbers along with the inability to reach its own forecast might indicate that Super Micro’s growth opportunities are limited.From the publicly available reports, we know that Elon Musk’s xAI firm recently started to pull orders for the AI servers from Super Micro to Dell (DELL). It appears that Nvidia (NVDA) has been doing the same thing recently, while Citi (C) named Dell and HP Enterprise (HPE) as the biggest winners in this situation. Even Super Micro’s preliminary outlook for Q2 indicates that the company is expected to generate only between $5.5 billion and $6.1 billion in revenues, below the consensus of $6.79 billion. There are also reports that Super Micro is now looking to raise additional capital, which suggests that the company might have liquidity issues as orders are being canceled. This is why the company’s upside indeed could be limited even if Super Micro overcomes all the challenges that it currently faces.Potential Upside Ahead?There are still several positive things that need to be considered. After the accounting scandal happened, Super Micro launched an internal investigation, which found no misconduct. More importantly, Super Micro agreed with the recommendation of the committee behind the investigation to replace its CFO and said that it doesn’t expect any restatement of its previous earnings reports.Super Micro has also hired BDO USA as its new auditor to review the company’s financial data and approve all the necessary earnings reports before February 25. If the reports come out on time, then Super Micro would likely be able to avoid delisting, which could give a boost to the share price despite the disappointing performance of the business in the recent quarter.In addition, as the AI-server market is expected to grow by 55% and be worth $252 billion next year, Super Micro might have an opportunity to improve its performance next year and exceed the expectations that were recently given by the company along with the preliminary data. This could also boost the share price next year.The Real Value of Super Micro ComputerWhen it comes to valuing Super Micro, we used the currently available data that the company previously reported due to the lack of alternatives. This is something that investors need to keep in mind in light of the recent accounting scandal.The tax rate in our model is 15%, which is below the current corporate tax rate in the United States. Given that under the Trump administration we could see another tax reform that lowers corporate taxes, we believe that it makes sense to use a rate that’s lower than today’s standard rate when forecasting the company’s performance for the next few years. The perpetual growth rate is 3%, which is similar to the historical GDP and inflation rate. We value Super Micro when it’s trading at $31.59 per share and the cash and long-term debt data was taken from the latest available earnings report.The discount rate in the model is 7.89%. We arrived at that rate by calculating Super Micro’s after-tax cost of debt using mostly its TTM data, and the cost of equity. For the cost of equity calculation, we used the risk-free rate of 4.40%, beta of 1.28, and the market return rate of 7.69%. We then weighted the company’s debt and equity to arrive at our discount rate.Super Micro Computer’s valuation modelIn the forecast table below, our sales and EBIT assumptions are mostly similar to the overall consensus for the next couple of years. After that, we expect a gradual normalization of growth rates across the semiconductor industry to more stable levels once the chip capacity issues caused by AI-related demand are resolved. The bottom part of the forecast table mostly aligns with Super Micro’s historical performance and doesn’t have a significant impact on the FCF calculation.With all of those assumptions, our valuation model shows that Super Micro’s enterprise value is $18.91 billion, which is close to Seeking Alpha's enterprise value estimates. We then calculated Super Micro’s equity value by adding cash to the enterprise value and subtracting the long-term debt. In our case, Super Micro’s equity value is $18.80 billion. We then dividend the company’s equity value by the number of its outstanding shares and figured out that Super Micro’s intrinsic value is $29.28 per share, which is below but also fairly close to the current market price at the time of this writing.Super Micro Computer’s valuation modelFinal ThoughtsOur valuation model clearly shows that even if all the previously reported numbers are correct and the current outlook along with the street assumptions are realistic, Super Micro’s stock is still not a good investment. As the AI hype train appears to be losing steam while the number of growth opportunities is limited, giving Super Micro a rating of SELL is the most appropriate thing to do right now.We also think that there are much better semiconductor names on the market right now that are not in the middle of an accounting scandal. In our opinion, long-term investors should rather look for them than bet on a speculative play like Super Micro, which already lost more than half of its value in the last six months.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"SMCI":1.1}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1561,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":377329050063208,"gmtCreate":1733160502417,"gmtModify":1733160506659,"author":{"id":"3575534613319772","authorId":"3575534613319772","name":"Mikinyaa","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4a2c57746358b22078da48731022679c","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3575534613319772","idStr":"3575534613319772"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/OPT/SMCI 20250117 70.0 CALL\">$SMCI 20250117 70.0 CALL$ </a> Christmas comes early&nbsp;[财迷]&nbsp;&nbsp;","listText":"<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/OPT/SMCI 20250117 70.0 CALL\">$SMCI 20250117 70.0 CALL$ </a> Christmas comes early&nbsp;[财迷]&nbsp;&nbsp;","text":"$SMCI 20250117 70.0 CALL$ Christmas comes early [财迷]","images":[{"img":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/5dba206d303669456fd52b52f116036c","width":"1732","height":"1530"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":7,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/377329050063208","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1868,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[{"author":{"id":"4171900329979952","authorId":"4171900329979952","name":"Barcode","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/6688d8fb4c2a255e3b901e79755e56df","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"authorIdStr":"4171900329979952","idStr":"4171900329979952"},"content":"🙌🙌🙌 🥂🍾🥂🍾🎉🎉🎉👏👏👏C͛O͛N͛G͛R͛A͛T͛U͛L͛A͛T͛I͛O͛N͛S͛. Well done! Enjoy those gains, happy trading ahead! Cheers BC, 🍀🍀🍀","text":"🙌🙌🙌 🥂🍾🥂🍾🎉🎉🎉👏👏👏C͛O͛N͛G͛R͛A͛T͛U͛L͛A͛T͛I͛O͛N͛S͛. Well done! Enjoy those gains, happy trading ahead! Cheers BC, 🍀🍀🍀","html":"🙌🙌🙌 🥂🍾🥂🍾🎉🎉🎉👏👏👏C͛O͛N͛G͛R͛A͛T͛U͛L͛A͛T͛I͛O͛N͛S͛. Well done! Enjoy those gains, happy trading ahead! Cheers BC, 🍀🍀🍀"}],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":372702758637576,"gmtCreate":1732001759925,"gmtModify":1732001764216,"author":{"id":"3575534613319772","authorId":"3575534613319772","name":"Mikinyaa","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4a2c57746358b22078da48731022679c","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3575534613319772","idStr":"3575534613319772"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/SMCI\">$超微电脑(SMCI)$ </a> gamma squeeze","listText":"<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/SMCI\">$超微电脑(SMCI)$ </a> gamma squeeze","text":"$超微电脑(SMCI)$ gamma squeeze","images":[{"img":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/e45182aa5782912f9d0ffd0115742c20","width":"898","height":"1530"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/372702758637576","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1568,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":367738970501232,"gmtCreate":1730797774370,"gmtModify":1730797778584,"author":{"id":"3575534613319772","authorId":"3575534613319772","name":"Mikinyaa","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4a2c57746358b22078da48731022679c","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3575534613319772","idStr":"3575534613319772"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/YINN\">$三倍做多富时中国ETF-Direxion(YINN)$&nbsp;</a><v-v data-views=\"1\"></v-v>&nbsp;<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/CHAU\">$二倍做多沪深300(Direxion)(CHAU)$ </a>&nbsp;[财迷]&nbsp;&nbsp;[财迷]&nbsp;&nbsp;[财迷]&nbsp;&nbsp;","listText":"<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/YINN\">$三倍做多富时中国ETF-Direxion(YINN)$&nbsp;</a><v-v data-views=\"1\"></v-v>&nbsp;<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/CHAU\">$二倍做多沪深300(Direxion)(CHAU)$ </a>&nbsp;[财迷]&nbsp;&nbsp;[财迷]&nbsp;&nbsp;[财迷]&nbsp;&nbsp;","text":"$三倍做多富时中国ETF-Direxion(YINN)$ $二倍做多沪深300(Direxion)(CHAU)$ [财迷] [财迷] [财迷]","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/367738970501232","repostId":"2481152922","repostType":2,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1616,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":362778730873160,"gmtCreate":1729604857360,"gmtModify":1729604861428,"author":{"id":"3575534613319772","authorId":"3575534613319772","name":"Mikinyaa","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4a2c57746358b22078da48731022679c","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3575534613319772","idStr":"3575534613319772"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/CHAU\">$二倍做多沪深300(Direxion)(CHAU)$ </a>&nbsp;","listText":"<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/CHAU\">$二倍做多沪深300(Direxion)(CHAU)$ </a>&nbsp;","text":"$二倍做多沪深300(Direxion)(CHAU)$","images":[{"img":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/eee1f743bc8387756f68185ca2309529","width":"898","height":"1530"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/362778730873160","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2202,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[{"author":{"id":"10000000000010968","authorId":"10000000000010968","name":"Tiger_CashBoostAccount","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/ae2d4002ef9664aba005cb3020f416f5","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"authorIdStr":"10000000000010968","idStr":"10000000000010968"},"content":"Remember, investing is a marathon, not a sprint. It's natural to face ups and downs. Stay focused on your long-term goals. You’re welcome to open a Tiger Cash Boost Account and use contra trading to enhance your strategies. Welcome to open a CBA today and enjoy access to a trading limit of up to SGD 20,000 with upcoming 0-commission, unlimited trading on SG, HK, and US stocks, as well as ETFs. Find out more here. Other helpful links: How to open a CBA. How to link your CDP account. Other FAQs on CBA. Cash Boost Account Website.","text":"Remember, investing is a marathon, not a sprint. It's natural to face ups and downs. Stay focused on your long-term goals. You’re welcome to open a Tiger Cash Boost Account and use contra trading to enhance your strategies. Welcome to open a CBA today and enjoy access to a trading limit of up to SGD 20,000 with upcoming 0-commission, unlimited trading on SG, HK, and US stocks, as well as ETFs. Find out more here. Other helpful links: How to open a CBA. How to link your CDP account. Other FAQs on CBA. Cash Boost Account Website.","html":"Remember, investing is a marathon, not a sprint. It's natural to face ups and downs. Stay focused on your long-term goals. You’re welcome to open a Tiger Cash Boost Account and use contra trading to enhance your strategies. Welcome to open a CBA today and enjoy access to a trading limit of up to SGD 20,000 with upcoming 0-commission, unlimited trading on SG, HK, and US stocks, as well as ETFs. Find out more here. Other helpful links: How to open a CBA. How to link your CDP account. Other FAQs on CBA. Cash Boost Account Website."}],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0}],"hots":[{"id":349026952941800,"gmtCreate":1726241828137,"gmtModify":1726241833354,"author":{"id":"3575534613319772","authorId":"3575534613319772","name":"Mikinyaa","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4a2c57746358b22078da48731022679c","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3575534613319772","idStr":"3575534613319772"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/MU\">$美光科技(MU)$&nbsp;</a> I'm researching into the analyst who issued the recent double downgrade of Micron. His record isn't very impressive.[开心]&nbsp;&nbsp;[开心]&nbsp;&nbsp;[开心]&nbsp;&nbsp;","listText":"<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/MU\">$美光科技(MU)$&nbsp;</a> I'm researching into the analyst who issued the recent double downgrade of Micron. His record isn't very impressive.[开心]&nbsp;&nbsp;[开心]&nbsp;&nbsp;[开心]&nbsp;&nbsp;","text":"$美光科技(MU)$ I'm researching into the analyst who issued the recent double downgrade of Micron. His record isn't very impressive.[开心] [开心] [开心]","images":[{"img":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/a126f836de312ef8209917983dd75c17","width":"1080","height":"2062"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/349026952941800","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1980,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":377329050063208,"gmtCreate":1733160502417,"gmtModify":1733160506659,"author":{"id":"3575534613319772","authorId":"3575534613319772","name":"Mikinyaa","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4a2c57746358b22078da48731022679c","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3575534613319772","idStr":"3575534613319772"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/OPT/SMCI 20250117 70.0 CALL\">$SMCI 20250117 70.0 CALL$ </a> Christmas comes early&nbsp;[财迷]&nbsp;&nbsp;","listText":"<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/OPT/SMCI 20250117 70.0 CALL\">$SMCI 20250117 70.0 CALL$ </a> Christmas comes early&nbsp;[财迷]&nbsp;&nbsp;","text":"$SMCI 20250117 70.0 CALL$ Christmas comes early [财迷]","images":[{"img":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/5dba206d303669456fd52b52f116036c","width":"1732","height":"1530"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":7,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/377329050063208","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1868,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[{"author":{"id":"4171900329979952","authorId":"4171900329979952","name":"Barcode","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/6688d8fb4c2a255e3b901e79755e56df","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"authorIdStr":"4171900329979952","idStr":"4171900329979952"},"content":"🙌🙌🙌 🥂🍾🥂🍾🎉🎉🎉👏👏👏C͛O͛N͛G͛R͛A͛T͛U͛L͛A͛T͛I͛O͛N͛S͛. Well done! Enjoy those gains, happy trading ahead! Cheers BC, 🍀🍀🍀","text":"🙌🙌🙌 🥂🍾🥂🍾🎉🎉🎉👏👏👏C͛O͛N͛G͛R͛A͛T͛U͛L͛A͛T͛I͛O͛N͛S͛. Well done! Enjoy those gains, happy trading ahead! Cheers BC, 🍀🍀🍀","html":"🙌🙌🙌 🥂🍾🥂🍾🎉🎉🎉👏👏👏C͛O͛N͛G͛R͛A͛T͛U͛L͛A͛T͛I͛O͛N͛S͛. Well done! Enjoy those gains, happy trading ahead! Cheers BC, 🍀🍀🍀"}],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":418164982767912,"gmtCreate":1743086962549,"gmtModify":1743086966034,"author":{"id":"3575534613319772","authorId":"3575534613319772","name":"Mikinyaa","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4a2c57746358b22078da48731022679c","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3575534613319772","idStr":"3575534613319772"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/SMCI\">$超微电脑(SMCI)$&nbsp;</a><v-v data-views=\"1\"></v-v>&nbsp;[财迷]&nbsp;&nbsp;","listText":"<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/SMCI\">$超微电脑(SMCI)$&nbsp;</a><v-v data-views=\"1\"></v-v>&nbsp;[财迷]&nbsp;&nbsp;","text":"$超微电脑(SMCI)$ 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target=\"_blank\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/DPST\">$Direxion Daily Regional Banks Bull 3X Shares(DPST)$</a> IN !!!","listText":"<a target=\"_blank\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/DPST\">$Direxion Daily Regional Banks Bull 3X Shares(DPST)$</a> IN !!!","text":"$Direxion Daily Regional Banks Bull 3X Shares(DPST)$ IN !!!","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/361936370","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1103,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":463331492106864,"gmtCreate":1754147823190,"gmtModify":1754147829905,"author":{"id":"3575534613319772","authorId":"3575534613319772","name":"Mikinyaa","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4a2c57746358b22078da48731022679c","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3575534613319772","idStr":"3575534613319772"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a 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href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/CHAU\">$二倍做多沪深300(Direxion)(CHAU)$ </a>&nbsp;","listText":"<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/CHAU\">$二倍做多沪深300(Direxion)(CHAU)$ </a>&nbsp;","text":"$二倍做多沪深300(Direxion)(CHAU)$","images":[{"img":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/eee1f743bc8387756f68185ca2309529","width":"898","height":"1530"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/362778730873160","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2202,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[{"author":{"id":"10000000000010968","authorId":"10000000000010968","name":"Tiger_CashBoostAccount","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/ae2d4002ef9664aba005cb3020f416f5","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"authorIdStr":"10000000000010968","idStr":"10000000000010968"},"content":"Remember, investing is a marathon, not a sprint. 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Cash Boost Account Website."}],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":454466088325824,"gmtCreate":1751991220491,"gmtModify":1751991223778,"author":{"id":"3575534613319772","authorId":"3575534613319772","name":"Mikinyaa","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4a2c57746358b22078da48731022679c","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3575534613319772","idStr":"3575534613319772"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/SOXL\">$三倍做多半导体ETF-Direxion Daily(SOXL)$ </a>&nbsp;","listText":"<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/SOXL\">$三倍做多半导体ETF-Direxion Daily(SOXL)$ </a>&nbsp;","text":"$三倍做多半导体ETF-Direxion Daily(SOXL)$","images":[{"img":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/600c22c60388761482da29712bb472f2","width":"898","height":"1530"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/454466088325824","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1165,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":449080582848824,"gmtCreate":1750665069749,"gmtModify":1750665073579,"author":{"id":"3575534613319772","authorId":"3575534613319772","name":"Mikinyaa","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4a2c57746358b22078da48731022679c","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3575534613319772","idStr":"3575534613319772"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"This aged like fine milk","listText":"This aged like fine milk","text":"This aged like fine milk","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/449080582848824","repostId":"1176564486","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"1176564486","kind":"news","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"个股异动一手消息解读","home_visible":1,"media_name":"异动解读","id":"1092702339","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a81accab1e7ee4144dc051f71903a390"},"pubTimestamp":1750637078,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1176564486?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2025-06-23 08:04","market":"sg","language":"zh","title":"Interpretation of changes | Circle's stock price fell 5.11% in night trading, which may be affected by U.S. regulatory uncertainty","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1176564486","media":"异动解读","summary":"据报道，稳定币发行公司Circle Internet Corp. 在周日夜盘交易中股价大跌5.11%。这一异常走势可能与近期美国加密货币市场的监管环境有关。分析显示，尽管欧洲加密市场在MiCA框架下呈现增长态势，美国市场却面临监管不确定性的挑战。这种市场表现差异可能源于美国持续的监管不确定性。这种不确定性可能影响了投资者对Circle等美国加密货币公司的信心，导致其股价在非常规交易时段出现大幅波动。","content":"<p>According to reports, stablecoin issuer Circle Internet Corp. (CRCL) fell 5.11% in Sunday night trading. This unusual trend may be related to the recent regulatory environment in the U.S. cryptocurrency market.</p><p>Analysis shows that although the European encryption market is showing growth under the MiCA framework, the US market is facing the challenge of regulatory uncertainty. According to Paybis co-founder Konstantins Vasilenko, in the first quarter of 2025 following the MiCA regulation's entry into force, the volume of transactions from EU customers increased by 70% quarter-on-quarter. In contrast, retail trading activity in the U.S. market is trending downward, with only 18% of Coinbase's spot trading volume coming from retail investors, down from 40% in 2021.</p><p>This difference in market performance may stem from ongoing regulatory uncertainty in the United States. While U.S. President Trump and members of his administration have made pro-cryptocurrency rhetoric, comprehensive federal crypto legislation has not yet been introduced. This uncertainty may have affected investor confidence in U.S. crypto companies such as Circle, causing their shares to move sharply during unconventional trading sessions.</p>","source":"ai_movement_cn","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Interpretation of changes | Circle's stock price fell 5.11% in night trading, which may be affected by U.S. regulatory uncertainty</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nInterpretation of changes | Circle's stock price fell 5.11% in night trading, which may be affected by U.S. regulatory uncertainty\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/1092702339\">\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/a81accab1e7ee4144dc051f71903a390);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">异动解读 </p>\n<p class=\"h-time smaller\">2025-06-23 08:04</p>\n</div>\n</a>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>According to reports, stablecoin issuer Circle Internet Corp. (CRCL) fell 5.11% in Sunday night trading. This unusual trend may be related to the recent regulatory environment in the U.S. cryptocurrency market.</p><p>Analysis shows that although the European encryption market is showing growth under the MiCA framework, the US market is facing the challenge of regulatory uncertainty. According to Paybis co-founder Konstantins Vasilenko, in the first quarter of 2025 following the MiCA regulation's entry into force, the volume of transactions from EU customers increased by 70% quarter-on-quarter. In contrast, retail trading activity in the U.S. market is trending downward, with only 18% of Coinbase's spot trading volume coming from retail investors, down from 40% in 2021.</p><p>This difference in market performance may stem from ongoing regulatory uncertainty in the United States. While U.S. President Trump and members of his administration have made pro-cryptocurrency rhetoric, comprehensive federal crypto legislation has not yet been introduced. This uncertainty may have affected investor confidence in U.S. crypto companies such as Circle, causing their shares to move sharply during unconventional trading sessions.</p>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"CRCL":"Circle Internet Corp."},"source_url":"","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1176564486","content_text":"据报道，稳定币发行公司Circle Internet Corp.（CRCL）在周日夜盘交易中股价大跌5.11%。这一异常走势可能与近期美国加密货币市场的监管环境有关。\n分析显示，尽管欧洲加密市场在MiCA框架下呈现增长态势，美国市场却面临监管不确定性的挑战。据Paybis联合创始人Konstantins Vasilenko透露，MiCA法规生效后的2025年第一季度，欧盟客户的交易量环比增长了70%。相比之下，美国市场的散户交易活动呈下降趋势，Coinbase现货交易量中仅18%来自散户，低于2021年的40%。\n这种市场表现差异可能源于美国持续的监管不确定性。虽然美国总统特朗普及其政府成员发表了支持加密货币的言论，但尚未出台全面的联邦加密立法。这种不确定性可能影响了投资者对Circle等美国加密货币公司的信心，导致其股价在非常规交易时段出现大幅波动。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"CRCL":1}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":851,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":447521607979656,"gmtCreate":1750295969763,"gmtModify":1750295972813,"author":{"id":"3575534613319772","authorId":"3575534613319772","name":"Mikinyaa","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4a2c57746358b22078da48731022679c","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3575534613319772","idStr":"3575534613319772"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/CRWV\">$CoreWeave, Inc.(CRWV)$ </a>&nbsp;","listText":"<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/CRWV\">$CoreWeave, Inc.(CRWV)$ </a>&nbsp;","text":"$CoreWeave, Inc.(CRWV)$","images":[{"img":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/12d0163a2da4489de8ae0f9d880b984f","width":"898","height":"1530"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/447521607979656","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":720,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":447519285776840,"gmtCreate":1750295951816,"gmtModify":1750295955272,"author":{"id":"3575534613319772","authorId":"3575534613319772","name":"Mikinyaa","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4a2c57746358b22078da48731022679c","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3575534613319772","idStr":"3575534613319772"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/CRCL\">$Circle Internet Corp.(CRCL)$ </a>&nbsp;","listText":"<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/CRCL\">$Circle Internet Corp.(CRCL)$ </a>&nbsp;","text":"$Circle Internet 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</a>&nbsp;","text":"$iShares费城交易所半导体ETF(SOXX)$","images":[{"img":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/374f42ff4605e3828330532c7a603ea2","width":"898","height":"1530"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/434368374579936","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":626,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":418094312509680,"gmtCreate":1743085352758,"gmtModify":1743085355108,"author":{"id":"3575534613319772","authorId":"3575534613319772","name":"Mikinyaa","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4a2c57746358b22078da48731022679c","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3575534613319772","idStr":"3575534613319772"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"🤡","listText":"🤡","text":"🤡","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/418094312509680","repostId":"2522097743","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"2522097743","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1742891055,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/2522097743?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2025-03-25 16:24","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"Is the ultra-microcomputer highlight moment coming to an end? Goldman Sachs shouts \"sell\"!","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2522097743","media":"金十数据","summary":"高盛分析师对超微电脑持谨慎态度，并于周一下调其股票评级至“卖出”，警告该公司可能会在人工智能服务器市场中逐渐失去领先优势。高盛目前对超微电脑的12个月目标价为32美元，较此前的40美元有所下调。高盛数据显示，超微电脑的毛利率在2023财年达到峰值约18%，而在2024财年降至13.9%。由于AI服务器供应增加，超微电脑“已提及因竞争性定价带来的毛利压力。”此外，Ng对超微电脑2026财年实现400亿美元收入的预期持怀疑态度。","content":"<p><html><body><article><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/GS\">Goldman Sachs</a>Analysts' opinions<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/SMCI\">Ultra-microcomputer</a>(SMCI.O) was cautious and downgraded its stock to \"sell\" on Monday, warning the company could gradually lose its lead in the artificial intelligence (AI) server market.</p><p>A team of analysts led by Michael Ng pointed out that although the share price of Super Micro Computer (SMCI.O) has surged this year, it may face downside risks in the future.<strong>The main reasons include intensified competition, pressure on its already low gross profit margin, and</strong>The differentiation of AI server products is reduced.</p><p>\"Competition from OEM (Original Equipment Manufacturer) and ODM (Original Design Manufacturer) suppliers has increased, which could lead to less product differentiation and increased price pressure,\" Ng wrote in a note to customers.</p><p>Goldman's current 12-month price target for ultramicro computers is $32, down from the previous price of $40.<strong>The new price target is about below current levels</strong>24%。</p><p>Analysts pointed out,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/DELL\">Dell</a>(DELL.N) 's AI server business revenue will grow to US $9 billion in 2024, a significant increase from US $2 billion in 2023, and is expected to exceed US $15 billion in 2025. Furthermore,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/HPQ\">Hewlett-Packard</a>(HPQ.N) reportedly has secured a $1 billion order for AI servers from social media platform X.</p><p>\"The risk of increased competition is particularly acute as Super Micro generated 58% of its revenue in the last quarter from just two customers,\" Ng added.</p><p>Ng's worries and last week<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/JPM\">JPMorgan Chase</a>The analyst expressed a similar view, but he additionally pointed to concerns about the company's future gross margins.</p><p>According to Goldman Sachs data, the gross profit margin of Super Micro Computer peaked at about 18% in fiscal year 2023, while falling to 13.9% in fiscal year 2024.<strong>Ng</strong>It is forecast that this figure will drop to 12% in fiscal 2025 and may slip further to 11% in fiscal 2029.</p><p>As the supply of AI servers increases, ultramicro computers \"have mentioned that competitive pricing brings about<span>GROSS PROFIT</span>Pressure. \" Ng said in the report. He pointed out that gross profit was affected by<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NVDA\">Nvidia</a>(NVDA.O) The impact of the transition of the Hopper platform to the latest Blackwell product line, which initially experienced delays.</p><p>Additionally, Ng is skeptical about Super Micro's expectation of $40 billion in revenue in fiscal 2026.<strong>He predicted that the company's revenue would reach</strong>32 billion, \"reflecting our expectations of increased competition in the market.\"</p><p></article></body></html></p>","source":"tencent","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Is the ultra-microcomputer highlight moment coming to an end? Goldman Sachs shouts \"sell\"!</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nIs the ultra-microcomputer highlight moment coming to an end? Goldman Sachs shouts \"sell\"!\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">金十数据</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2025-03-25 16:24</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><html><body><article><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/GS\">Goldman Sachs</a>Analysts' opinions<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/SMCI\">Ultra-microcomputer</a>(SMCI.O) was cautious and downgraded its stock to \"sell\" on Monday, warning the company could gradually lose its lead in the artificial intelligence (AI) server market.</p><p>A team of analysts led by Michael Ng pointed out that although the share price of Super Micro Computer (SMCI.O) has surged this year, it may face downside risks in the future.<strong>The main reasons include intensified competition, pressure on its already low gross profit margin, and</strong>The differentiation of AI server products is reduced.</p><p>\"Competition from OEM (Original Equipment Manufacturer) and ODM (Original Design Manufacturer) suppliers has increased, which could lead to less product differentiation and increased price pressure,\" Ng wrote in a note to customers.</p><p>Goldman's current 12-month price target for ultramicro computers is $32, down from the previous price of $40.<strong>The new price target is about below current levels</strong>24%。</p><p>Analysts pointed out,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/DELL\">Dell</a>(DELL.N) 's AI server business revenue will grow to US $9 billion in 2024, a significant increase from US $2 billion in 2023, and is expected to exceed US $15 billion in 2025. Furthermore,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/HPQ\">Hewlett-Packard</a>(HPQ.N) reportedly has secured a $1 billion order for AI servers from social media platform X.</p><p>\"The risk of increased competition is particularly acute as Super Micro generated 58% of its revenue in the last quarter from just two customers,\" Ng added.</p><p>Ng's worries and last week<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/JPM\">JPMorgan Chase</a>The analyst expressed a similar view, but he additionally pointed to concerns about the company's future gross margins.</p><p>According to Goldman Sachs data, the gross profit margin of Super Micro Computer peaked at about 18% in fiscal year 2023, while falling to 13.9% in fiscal year 2024.<strong>Ng</strong>It is forecast that this figure will drop to 12% in fiscal 2025 and may slip further to 11% in fiscal 2029.</p><p>As the supply of AI servers increases, ultramicro computers \"have mentioned that competitive pricing brings about<span>GROSS PROFIT</span>Pressure. \" Ng said in the report. He pointed out that gross profit was affected by<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NVDA\">Nvidia</a>(NVDA.O) The impact of the transition of the Hopper platform to the latest Blackwell product line, which initially experienced delays.</p><p>Additionally, Ng is skeptical about Super Micro's expectation of $40 billion in revenue in fiscal 2026.<strong>He predicted that the company's revenue would reach</strong>32 billion, \"reflecting our expectations of increased competition in the market.\"</p><p></article></body></html></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> source：<a href=\"http://gu.qq.com/resources/shy/news/detail-v2/index.html#/?id=nesSN2025032516241797227192&s=b\">金十数据</a></p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"BK4516":"特朗普概念","LU2471134796.USD":"INVESCO GLOBAL EQUITY INCOME ADVANTAGE \"A\" (USD) INC","LU0096364046.USD":"CT (LUX) I AMERICAN \"DU\" (USD) ACC","IE0002270589.USD":"LEGG MASON CLEARBRIDGE VALUE \"A\" (USD) INC","IE00BSNM7G36.USD":"NEUBERGER BERMAN SYSTEMATIC GLOBAL SUSTAINABLE VALUE \"A\" (USD) ACC","BK4504":"桥水持仓","LU2750360641.GBP":"INVESCO GLOBAL EQUITY INCOME ADVANTAGE \"A\" (GBPHDG) INC","IE0034235188.USD":"PINEBRIDGE GLOBAL FOCUS EQUITY \"A\" (USD) ACC","LU2237438978.USD":"Amundi Funds US Pioneer A2 (C) USD","LU2750360997.AUD":"INVESCO GLOBAL EQUITY INCOME ADVANTAGE \"A\" (AUDHDG) INC","BK4588":"碎股","LU1791807156.HKD":"BGF WORLD FINANCIALS \"A2\" (HKDHDG) ACC","BK4550":"红杉资本持仓","LU2237443382.USD":"Aberdeen Standard SICAV I - 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Value A Acc USD","BK4585":"ETF&股票定投概念","LU0053671581.USD":"摩根大通美国小盘成长股 A(dist)","LU2471134952.CNY":"INVESCO GLOBAL EQUITY INCOME ADVANTAGE \"A\" (CNYHDG) INC","LU1868836591.USD":"CT (LUX) I AMERICAN \"1U\"(USD) ACC","LU0106831901.USD":"贝莱德世界金融基金A2","BK4127":"投资银行业与经纪业","LU2471134879.HKD":"INVESCO GLOBAL EQUITY INCOME ADVANTAGE \"A\" (HKD) INC","BK4533":"AQR资本管理(全球第二大对冲基金)","LU1668664300.SGD":"Blackrock World Financials A2 SGD-H","LU1868836757.USD":"CT (LUX) I AMERICAN FUND \"2\" (USD) ACC","IE00B19Z3B42.SGD":"Legg Mason ClearBridge - Value A Acc SGD"},"source_url":"http://gu.qq.com/resources/shy/news/detail-v2/index.html#/?id=nesSN2025032516241797227192&s=b","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/9a95c1376e76363c1401fee7d3717173","article_id":"2522097743","content_text":"高盛分析师对超微电脑(SMCI.O)持谨慎态度，并于周一下调其股票评级至“卖出”，警告该公司可能会在人工智能（AI）服务器市场中逐渐失去领先优势。由Michael Ng领导的分析师团队指出，尽管超微电脑(SMCI.O)今年股价大涨，但未来可能会面临下跌风险，主要原因包括竞争加剧、其本就偏低的毛利率承压，以及AI服务器产品的差异化减少。“来自OEM（原始设备制造商）和ODM（原始设计制造商）供应商的竞争加剧，这可能导致产品差异化减少，并加大价格压力。”Ng在给客户的报告中写道。高盛目前对超微电脑的12个月目标价为32美元，较此前的40美元有所下调。新目标价较当前水平低约24%。分析师指出，戴尔(DELL.N)的AI服务器业务收入在2024年增长至90亿美元，相较2023年的20亿美元大幅提升，并预计2025年将超过150亿美元。此外，惠普(HPQ.N)reportedly已获得社交媒体平台X一份价值10亿美元的AI服务器订单。“竞争加剧的风险尤为突出，因为Super Micro在上个季度的收入中，有58%来自仅两家客户。”Ng补充道。Ng的担忧与上周摩根大通分析师表达的观点类似，但他额外指出了对公司未来毛利率的担忧。高盛数据显示，超微电脑的毛利率在2023财年达到峰值约18%，而在2024财年降至13.9%。Ng预测该数据将在2025财年降至12%，并可能在2029财年进一步下滑至11%。由于AI服务器供应增加，超微电脑“已提及因竞争性定价带来的毛利压力。”Ng在报告中表示。他指出，毛利受到了从英伟达(NVDA.O)Hopper平台过渡至最新Blackwell产品线的影响，而这一过渡最初还曾经历延迟。此外，Ng对超微电脑2026财年实现400亿美元收入的预期持怀疑态度。他预测该公司的收入将达到320亿美元，“反映出我们对市场竞争加剧的预期。”","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"GS":0.9,"SMCI":1}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":875,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":385078762451392,"gmtCreate":1735054012529,"gmtModify":1735054015804,"author":{"id":"3575534613319772","authorId":"3575534613319772","name":"Mikinyaa","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4a2c57746358b22078da48731022679c","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3575534613319772","idStr":"3575534613319772"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"🤡🤡🤡","listText":"🤡🤡🤡","text":"🤡🤡🤡","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/385078762451392","repostId":"1181162347","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"1181162347","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1735033114,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1181162347?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2024-12-24 17:38","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Super Micro Computer: The Stock That's Doomed To Fail","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1181162347","media":"Seeking Alpha","summary":"SummarySuper Micro Computer lost more than half of its value in the last six months.The company is currently in the middle of an accounting scandal that could result in the delisting of its stock from","content":"<html><head></head><body><h2 id=\"id_3899041729\">Summary</h2><ul style=\"\"><li><p>Super Micro Computer lost more than half of its value in the last six months.</p></li><li><p>The company is currently in the middle of an accounting scandal that could result in the delisting of its stock from Nasdaq.</p></li><li><p>Even if Super Micro Computer overcomes all the current challenges that it faces, its upside could still be limited because of the recent poor performance of its business.</p></li></ul><p>The accounting scandal that began a few months ago has tarnished <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/SMCI\">Super Micro Computer</a>’s stock, which is currently trading close to its 52-week lows. Although some might think that the worst for the company is behind it, we believe that any potential upside is not worth opening a position at this stage. Super Micro still faces some major risks that in our opinion make its stock uninvestable right now.</p><h2 id=\"id_1730226959\">This Has Been A Rollercoaster</h2><p>After the impressive performance in the first half of 2024, Super Micro’s stock lost all of its momentum in the second half of the year and depreciated by over 50% in the last six months. The real troubles first started in late August when a popular research firm Hindenburg published a bearish report on the company. In the report, Hindenburg accused Super Micro of failing to comply with the sanctions and export controls and highlighted various governance-related issues. The report also stated that Super Micro is engaged in <em>continued proper revenue recognition</em>. This is something that the company was already doing in the past and it resulted in the delisting of its stock from Nasdaq in 2018 and a charge by the Security and Exchange Commission in 2020.</p><p>Shortly after the report was released, the U.S. Department of Justice opened a probe against the company that is still ongoing. After that, Super Micro’s auditor Ernst &amp; Young resigned, which spooked the market and prevented the company from releasing its earnings report on time. This has led to Nasdaq sending Super Micro a non-compliance letter, which created a new delisting risk. Following all of that, Super Micro was also removed from the Nasdaq 100 and its stock continues to trade in a distressed territory.</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/6722ddfb7b5165bd704a94eed7e38fbd\" alt=\"Super Micro’s performance\" title=\"Super Micro’s performance\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"259\"/><span>Super Micro’s performance</span></p><p>The good thing for Super Micro in all of this is that Nasdaq extended the reporting time for the company, which now needs to release all the missing quarterly and annual filings by February 25, 2025. If that doesn’t happen, then we’ll likely see a delisting of its shares from the exchange like it was a few years ago.</p><p>However, even if there have been no wrongdoings and Super Micro overcomes all the current legal and regulatory challenges, the upside for its shares could still be limited.</p><p>Last month, the company already released its preliminary Q1 earnings results, which showed that its revenues are expected to be between $5.9 billion and $6 billion. This is below the Wall Street consensus of $6.79 billion and also below the company’s initial guidance of between $6 billion and $7 billion. If the final report for the period comes out with the same numbers, then the disappointing sales numbers along with the inability to reach its own forecast might indicate that Super Micro’s growth opportunities are limited.</p><p>From the publicly available reports, we know that Elon Musk’s xAI firm recently started to pull orders for the AI servers from Super Micro to Dell (DELL). It appears that Nvidia (NVDA) has been doing the same thing recently, while Citi (C) named Dell and HP Enterprise (HPE) as the biggest winners in this situation. Even Super Micro’s preliminary outlook for Q2 indicates that the company is expected to generate only between $5.5 billion and $6.1 billion in revenues, below the consensus of $6.79 billion. There are also reports that Super Micro is now looking to raise additional capital, which suggests that the company might have liquidity issues as orders are being canceled. This is why the company’s upside indeed could be limited even if Super Micro overcomes all the challenges that it currently faces.</p><h2 id=\"id_4134804721\">Potential Upside Ahead?</h2><p>There are still several positive things that need to be considered. After the accounting scandal happened, Super Micro launched an internal investigation, which found no misconduct. More importantly, Super Micro agreed with the recommendation of the committee behind the investigation to replace its CFO and said that it doesn’t expect any restatement of its previous earnings reports.</p><p>Super Micro has also hired BDO USA as its new auditor to review the company’s financial data and approve all the necessary earnings reports before February 25. If the reports come out on time, then Super Micro would likely be able to avoid delisting, which could give a boost to the share price despite the disappointing performance of the business in the recent quarter.</p><p>In addition, as the AI-server market is expected to grow by 55% and be worth $252 billion next year, Super Micro might have an opportunity to improve its performance next year and exceed the expectations that were recently given by the company along with the preliminary data. This could also boost the share price next year.</p><h2 id=\"id_2218143786\">The Real Value of Super Micro Computer</h2><p>When it comes to valuing Super Micro, we used the currently available data that the company previously reported due to the lack of alternatives. This is something that investors need to keep in mind in light of the recent accounting scandal.</p><p>The tax rate in our model is 15%, which is below the current corporate tax rate in the United States. Given that under the Trump administration we could see another tax reform that lowers corporate taxes, we believe that it makes sense to use a rate that’s lower than today’s standard rate when forecasting the company’s performance for the next few years. The perpetual growth rate is 3%, which is similar to the historical GDP and inflation rate. We value Super Micro when it’s trading at $31.59 per share and the cash and long-term debt data was taken from the latest available earnings report.</p><p>The discount rate in the model is 7.89%. We arrived at that rate by calculating Super Micro’s after-tax cost of debt using mostly its TTM data, and the cost of equity. For the cost of equity calculation, we used the risk-free rate of 4.40%, beta of 1.28, and the market return rate of 7.69%. We then weighted the company’s debt and equity to arrive at our discount rate.</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/a987e0d40ca26fc2c7ef3eb9271b03d3\" alt=\"Super Micro Computer’s valuation model\" title=\"Super Micro Computer’s valuation model\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"181\"/><span>Super Micro Computer’s valuation model</span></p><p>In the forecast table below, our sales and EBIT assumptions are mostly similar to the overall consensus for the next couple of years. After that, we expect a gradual normalization of growth rates across the semiconductor industry to more stable levels once the chip capacity issues caused by AI-related demand are resolved. The bottom part of the forecast table mostly aligns with Super Micro’s historical performance and doesn’t have a significant impact on the FCF calculation.</p><p>With all of those assumptions, our valuation model shows that Super Micro’s enterprise value is $18.91 billion, which is close to Seeking Alpha&#39;s enterprise value estimates. We then calculated Super Micro’s equity value by adding cash to the enterprise value and subtracting the long-term debt. In our case, Super Micro’s equity value is $18.80 billion. We then dividend the company’s equity value by the number of its outstanding shares and figured out that Super Micro’s intrinsic value is $29.28 per share, which is below but also fairly close to the current market price at the time of this writing.</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/0974837dafcedfd5e245c0d9cc5b4280\" alt=\"Super Micro Computer’s valuation model\" title=\"Super Micro Computer’s valuation model\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"228\"/><span>Super Micro Computer’s valuation model</span></p><h2 id=\"id_3934436656\">Final Thoughts</h2><p>Our valuation model clearly shows that even if all the previously reported numbers are correct and the current outlook along with the street assumptions are realistic, Super Micro’s stock is still not a good investment. As the AI hype train appears to be losing steam while the number of growth opportunities is limited, giving Super Micro a rating of SELL is the most appropriate thing to do right now.</p><p>We also think that there are much better semiconductor names on the market right now that are not in the middle of an accounting scandal. In our opinion, long-term investors should rather look for them than bet on a speculative play like Super Micro, which already lost more than half of its value in the last six months.</p></body></html>","source":"lsy1728464409321","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Super Micro Computer: The Stock That's Doomed To Fail</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nSuper Micro Computer: The Stock That's Doomed To Fail\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2024-12-24 17:38 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://seekingalpha.com/article/4746111-super-micro-computer-the-stock-thats-doomed-to-fail><strong>Seeking Alpha</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>SummarySuper Micro Computer lost more than half of its value in the last six months.The company is currently in the middle of an accounting scandal that could result in the delisting of its stock from...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4746111-super-micro-computer-the-stock-thats-doomed-to-fail\">Source Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"SMCI":"超微电脑"},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4746111-super-micro-computer-the-stock-thats-doomed-to-fail","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1181162347","content_text":"SummarySuper Micro Computer lost more than half of its value in the last six months.The company is currently in the middle of an accounting scandal that could result in the delisting of its stock from Nasdaq.Even if Super Micro Computer overcomes all the current challenges that it faces, its upside could still be limited because of the recent poor performance of its business.The accounting scandal that began a few months ago has tarnished Super Micro Computer’s stock, which is currently trading close to its 52-week lows. Although some might think that the worst for the company is behind it, we believe that any potential upside is not worth opening a position at this stage. Super Micro still faces some major risks that in our opinion make its stock uninvestable right now.This Has Been A RollercoasterAfter the impressive performance in the first half of 2024, Super Micro’s stock lost all of its momentum in the second half of the year and depreciated by over 50% in the last six months. The real troubles first started in late August when a popular research firm Hindenburg published a bearish report on the company. In the report, Hindenburg accused Super Micro of failing to comply with the sanctions and export controls and highlighted various governance-related issues. The report also stated that Super Micro is engaged in continued proper revenue recognition. This is something that the company was already doing in the past and it resulted in the delisting of its stock from Nasdaq in 2018 and a charge by the Security and Exchange Commission in 2020.Shortly after the report was released, the U.S. Department of Justice opened a probe against the company that is still ongoing. After that, Super Micro’s auditor Ernst & Young resigned, which spooked the market and prevented the company from releasing its earnings report on time. This has led to Nasdaq sending Super Micro a non-compliance letter, which created a new delisting risk. Following all of that, Super Micro was also removed from the Nasdaq 100 and its stock continues to trade in a distressed territory.Super Micro’s performanceThe good thing for Super Micro in all of this is that Nasdaq extended the reporting time for the company, which now needs to release all the missing quarterly and annual filings by February 25, 2025. If that doesn’t happen, then we’ll likely see a delisting of its shares from the exchange like it was a few years ago.However, even if there have been no wrongdoings and Super Micro overcomes all the current legal and regulatory challenges, the upside for its shares could still be limited.Last month, the company already released its preliminary Q1 earnings results, which showed that its revenues are expected to be between $5.9 billion and $6 billion. This is below the Wall Street consensus of $6.79 billion and also below the company’s initial guidance of between $6 billion and $7 billion. If the final report for the period comes out with the same numbers, then the disappointing sales numbers along with the inability to reach its own forecast might indicate that Super Micro’s growth opportunities are limited.From the publicly available reports, we know that Elon Musk’s xAI firm recently started to pull orders for the AI servers from Super Micro to Dell (DELL). It appears that Nvidia (NVDA) has been doing the same thing recently, while Citi (C) named Dell and HP Enterprise (HPE) as the biggest winners in this situation. Even Super Micro’s preliminary outlook for Q2 indicates that the company is expected to generate only between $5.5 billion and $6.1 billion in revenues, below the consensus of $6.79 billion. There are also reports that Super Micro is now looking to raise additional capital, which suggests that the company might have liquidity issues as orders are being canceled. This is why the company’s upside indeed could be limited even if Super Micro overcomes all the challenges that it currently faces.Potential Upside Ahead?There are still several positive things that need to be considered. After the accounting scandal happened, Super Micro launched an internal investigation, which found no misconduct. More importantly, Super Micro agreed with the recommendation of the committee behind the investigation to replace its CFO and said that it doesn’t expect any restatement of its previous earnings reports.Super Micro has also hired BDO USA as its new auditor to review the company’s financial data and approve all the necessary earnings reports before February 25. If the reports come out on time, then Super Micro would likely be able to avoid delisting, which could give a boost to the share price despite the disappointing performance of the business in the recent quarter.In addition, as the AI-server market is expected to grow by 55% and be worth $252 billion next year, Super Micro might have an opportunity to improve its performance next year and exceed the expectations that were recently given by the company along with the preliminary data. This could also boost the share price next year.The Real Value of Super Micro ComputerWhen it comes to valuing Super Micro, we used the currently available data that the company previously reported due to the lack of alternatives. This is something that investors need to keep in mind in light of the recent accounting scandal.The tax rate in our model is 15%, which is below the current corporate tax rate in the United States. Given that under the Trump administration we could see another tax reform that lowers corporate taxes, we believe that it makes sense to use a rate that’s lower than today’s standard rate when forecasting the company’s performance for the next few years. The perpetual growth rate is 3%, which is similar to the historical GDP and inflation rate. We value Super Micro when it’s trading at $31.59 per share and the cash and long-term debt data was taken from the latest available earnings report.The discount rate in the model is 7.89%. We arrived at that rate by calculating Super Micro’s after-tax cost of debt using mostly its TTM data, and the cost of equity. For the cost of equity calculation, we used the risk-free rate of 4.40%, beta of 1.28, and the market return rate of 7.69%. We then weighted the company’s debt and equity to arrive at our discount rate.Super Micro Computer’s valuation modelIn the forecast table below, our sales and EBIT assumptions are mostly similar to the overall consensus for the next couple of years. After that, we expect a gradual normalization of growth rates across the semiconductor industry to more stable levels once the chip capacity issues caused by AI-related demand are resolved. The bottom part of the forecast table mostly aligns with Super Micro’s historical performance and doesn’t have a significant impact on the FCF calculation.With all of those assumptions, our valuation model shows that Super Micro’s enterprise value is $18.91 billion, which is close to Seeking Alpha's enterprise value estimates. We then calculated Super Micro’s equity value by adding cash to the enterprise value and subtracting the long-term debt. In our case, Super Micro’s equity value is $18.80 billion. We then dividend the company’s equity value by the number of its outstanding shares and figured out that Super Micro’s intrinsic value is $29.28 per share, which is below but also fairly close to the current market price at the time of this writing.Super Micro Computer’s valuation modelFinal ThoughtsOur valuation model clearly shows that even if all the previously reported numbers are correct and the current outlook along with the street assumptions are realistic, Super Micro’s stock is still not a good investment. As the AI hype train appears to be losing steam while the number of growth opportunities is limited, giving Super Micro a rating of SELL is the most appropriate thing to do right now.We also think that there are much better semiconductor names on the market right now that are not in the middle of an accounting scandal. In our opinion, long-term investors should rather look for them than bet on a speculative play like Super Micro, which already lost more than half of its value in the last six months.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"SMCI":1.1}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1561,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":367738970501232,"gmtCreate":1730797774370,"gmtModify":1730797778584,"author":{"id":"3575534613319772","authorId":"3575534613319772","name":"Mikinyaa","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4a2c57746358b22078da48731022679c","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3575534613319772","idStr":"3575534613319772"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/YINN\">$三倍做多富时中国ETF-Direxion(YINN)$&nbsp;</a><v-v data-views=\"1\"></v-v>&nbsp;<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/CHAU\">$二倍做多沪深300(Direxion)(CHAU)$ </a>&nbsp;[财迷]&nbsp;&nbsp;[财迷]&nbsp;&nbsp;[财迷]&nbsp;&nbsp;","listText":"<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/YINN\">$三倍做多富时中国ETF-Direxion(YINN)$&nbsp;</a><v-v data-views=\"1\"></v-v>&nbsp;<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/CHAU\">$二倍做多沪深300(Direxion)(CHAU)$ </a>&nbsp;[财迷]&nbsp;&nbsp;[财迷]&nbsp;&nbsp;[财迷]&nbsp;&nbsp;","text":"$三倍做多富时中国ETF-Direxion(YINN)$ $二倍做多沪深300(Direxion)(CHAU)$ [财迷] [财迷] [财迷]","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/367738970501232","repostId":"2481152922","repostType":2,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1616,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0}],"lives":[]}