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小老二

小老二

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2022-07-04

💪💪💪💪👍👍👍👍

2021-03-16

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2021-03-15

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2021-03-15

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The decline in the e-commerce sector of Hong Kong stocks expanded, and Ali traded 1.28 million shares in large transactions

2021-03-07

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Biden continues to "print money": stimulus plan increases GDP by 1 trillion yuan

2021-03-06

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Apple is a luck stock, not a value stock

2021-03-05

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Increased production suspended? OPEC + 's silence is worrying

2021-03-04

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Financial markets are "hyperinflated" and money printers have destroyed the value investing system

2021-03-04

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Autohome-S will launch its IPO today, and the admission fee is approximately HK $25,433.74

2021-03-03

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Nikola's fraud was exposed, why did Jia Yueting and FF dare to take this path?

Go to Tiger App to see more news

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13:11","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"The decline in the e-commerce sector of Hong Kong stocks expanded, and Ali traded 1.28 million shares in large transactions","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2119990944","media":"老虎资讯综合","summary":"云财经讯，阿里巴巴股票在香港大宗交易128万股，成交价每股221.5港元。","content":"<p>News on March 15,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/09988\">Alibaba</a>A large number of 1.28 million shares were traded in the Hong Kong market, with a transaction price of HK $221.5 per share.</p><p>At the same time, the decline in the e-commerce sector of Hong Kong stocks expanded, with Alibaba falling more than 2%.<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/09618\">JD.com</a>Fell more than 5.7%,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/03690\">Meituan</a>Fell more than 3%. 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It is reported that the State Administration for Market Supervision will formulate a list of responsibilities for online trading platforms this year.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d0021a08ffece3226dd59832952e8491\" tg-width=\"840\" tg-height=\"470\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ca2161e8ddb469de4171b1fb09459c6b","relate_stocks":{"03690":"美团-W","09618":"京东集团-SW","BABA":"阿里巴巴","09988":"阿里巴巴-W"},"is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2119990944","content_text":"3月15日消息，阿里巴巴在香港市场成交大宗交易128万股，成交价每股221.5港元。同时，港股电商版块跌幅扩大，阿里巴巴跌超2%，京东跌超5.7%，美团跌超3%。市场监管总局据悉今年将制订网络交易平台责任清单。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"48482":0.6,"48516":0.6,"48607":0.6,"48738":0.6,"BABA":0.6,"03690":0.9,"09988":0.9,"09618":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1253,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":320665726,"gmtCreate":1615094815065,"gmtModify":1704778635534,"author":{"id":"3576476136293909","authorId":"3576476136293909","name":"小老二","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5c4122726bb17be855a0fd1a62d04a04","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3576476136293909","idStr":"3576476136293909"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"?????","listText":"?????","text":"?????","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/320665726","repostId":"2117554496","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"2117554496","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1615074336,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/2117554496?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2021-03-07 07:45","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"Biden continues to \"print money\": stimulus plan increases GDP by 1 trillion yuan","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2117554496","media":"e公司","summary":"拜登继续疯狂“印钱”！25小时马拉松，1票决定2万亿美元，参议院通过刺激计划！共和党一致反对，拜登：这一计划让GDP增加1万亿！周末重磅！美国参议院投票通过了1.9万亿美元（约12万亿人民币）新一轮经","content":"<p>Biden continues to \"print money\" like crazy! 25-hour marathon, 1 vote decides $2 trillion, Senate passes stimulus package! Republicans unanimously oppose it, Biden: This plan will increase GDP by 1 trillion yuan!</p><p>Heavy weekend! The U.S. Senate voted to pass a new round of economic rescue plan of $1.9 trillion (about 12 trillion yuan).</p><p>Latest, U.S. President Biden said on the 6th that the Senate passed the $1.9 trillion new crown relief bill, which means that the $1,400 paid to most Americans will begin to be distributed this month, and the provisions of the bill will also speed up vaccines. production and distribution.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/15738453c9ff9c639009f97576273cc8\" tg-width=\"720\" tg-height=\"317\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>Biden also said that the economic stimulus plan could increase U.S. gross domestic product by $1 trillion.</p><p>Former President Barack Obama issued a series of tweets praising this process immediately after the bill was passed. In his tweet, he said, \"This kind of progress will only happen when we elect government leaders who are committed to improving people's lives, which also reminds us why voting is so important.</p><p>Marathon Vote! 1 vote to decide the 12 trillion stimulus plan</p><p>On Saturday, U.S. President Joe Biden's $1.9 trillion economic stimulus plan passed the Senate by a 50-49 vote.</p><p>Earlier, the Senate held a marathon amendment vote for more than 25 hours.</p><p>The stimulus plan will go to the House again, and Democrats hope to get it signed into law next week. The passage of this plan will give Biden his first victory in legislative work and lay the foundation for the massive infrastructure and manufacturing recovery bill he hopes to introduce.</p><p>Republicans unanimously oppose it</p><p>It is worth noting that previously, the U.S. House of Representatives voted to pass a new round of economic rescue plan of $1.9 trillion. This House vote is for the amendment bill.</p><p>The bill includes a $1,400 relief check per person (which needs to meet the annual individual or family income standard), a weekly unemployment benefit of $300 throughout the summer, a child allowance of up to $3,600 a year, and a $350 billion state aid subsidies, $34 billion in Affordable Care Act subsidies and $14 billion in COVID-19 vaccine subsidies.</p><p>Although the bailout bill was passed in the U.S. Senate, it was unanimously opposed by Republicans.</p><p>It is reported that when Biden introduced the bill, he planned to raise the minimum wage to $15 per hour, but Senator Elizabeth MacDonough ruled on February 25 that the plan to raise the minimum wage was not in line with The provisions of the budget coordination plan should not be included in the $1.9 trillion economic rescue plan.</p><p>U.S. Senate Majority Leader Schumer said that the House of Representatives is expected to pass an economic stimulus bill, and U.S. President Joe Biden will sign the bill before the March 14 deadline, because the extended unemployment assistance measures will expire that day.</p><p>U.S. GDP growth will explode</p><p>As the U.S. Democratic Party is about to pass a nearly $2 trillion economic stimulus bill and the vaccination program continues to advance, the U.S. economic outlook looks more optimistic than in early January.</p><p>According to the latest monthly survey of the agency, the economists surveyed expect the GDP of the United States to grow by about 4.8% year-on-year in the first quarter, twice the expectation in January. Full-year U.S. GDP growth is expected to be 5.5%, which will be the fastest growth rate since 1984 and higher than January's estimate of 4.1%.</p><p>Reports suggest congressional Democrats may consider more stimulus measures after the U.S. Senate passes a $1.9 trillion economic stimulus package, which will depend on economic and epidemic conditions in the coming months. U.S. Senate Majority Leader Schumer said that our primary goal is to help the American people. If they need more help, we will pass another bill. If this bill is enough and it brings a lot of help, then we won't pass another bill.</p><p>U.S. stocks reverse</p><p>According to data released by the U.S. Department of Labor on Friday, the U.S. added 379,000 new non-farm jobs in February, better than expected 210,000, and the unemployment rate fell to 6.2%. The January data was revised up from 49,000 new jobs to 166,000.</p><p>Among them, the leisure hotel industry rebounded the strongest, with a net increase of 355,000 jobs in February. In terms of sub-sectors, restaurants and bars created 286,000 new jobs, and the hotel industry hired 36,000 additional employees.</p><p>On Friday, when U.S. bond yields fluctuated at high levels, U.S. stocks also fluctuated violently. During the session, the Dow once fell 174 points, the Nasdaq once fell 2.67%, and the S&P 500 once fell more than 1%.</p><p>The Dow Jones Industrial Average reversed, rising to 31,580 points in late trading, rebounding 812 points from the intraday low. As of the close, the Dow rose 1.85% to 31,496 points. During the session, Federal Reserve Kashkari said that full employment has not been reached now and he is not worried about inflation.</p>","source":"LHCJ1","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Biden continues to \"print money\": stimulus plan increases GDP by 1 trillion yuan</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nBiden continues to \"print money\": stimulus plan increases GDP by 1 trillion yuan\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">e公司</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-03-07 07:45</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>Biden continues to \"print money\" like crazy! 25-hour marathon, 1 vote decides $2 trillion, Senate passes stimulus package! Republicans unanimously oppose it, Biden: This plan will increase GDP by 1 trillion yuan!</p><p>Heavy weekend! The U.S. Senate voted to pass a new round of economic rescue plan of $1.9 trillion (about 12 trillion yuan).</p><p>Latest, U.S. President Biden said on the 6th that the Senate passed the $1.9 trillion new crown relief bill, which means that the $1,400 paid to most Americans will begin to be distributed this month, and the provisions of the bill will also speed up vaccines. production and distribution.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/15738453c9ff9c639009f97576273cc8\" tg-width=\"720\" tg-height=\"317\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>Biden also said that the economic stimulus plan could increase U.S. gross domestic product by $1 trillion.</p><p>Former President Barack Obama issued a series of tweets praising this process immediately after the bill was passed. In his tweet, he said, \"This kind of progress will only happen when we elect government leaders who are committed to improving people's lives, which also reminds us why voting is so important.</p><p>Marathon Vote! 1 vote to decide the 12 trillion stimulus plan</p><p>On Saturday, U.S. President Joe Biden's $1.9 trillion economic stimulus plan passed the Senate by a 50-49 vote.</p><p>Earlier, the Senate held a marathon amendment vote for more than 25 hours.</p><p>The stimulus plan will go to the House again, and Democrats hope to get it signed into law next week. The passage of this plan will give Biden his first victory in legislative work and lay the foundation for the massive infrastructure and manufacturing recovery bill he hopes to introduce.</p><p>Republicans unanimously oppose it</p><p>It is worth noting that previously, the U.S. House of Representatives voted to pass a new round of economic rescue plan of $1.9 trillion. This House vote is for the amendment bill.</p><p>The bill includes a $1,400 relief check per person (which needs to meet the annual individual or family income standard), a weekly unemployment benefit of $300 throughout the summer, a child allowance of up to $3,600 a year, and a $350 billion state aid subsidies, $34 billion in Affordable Care Act subsidies and $14 billion in COVID-19 vaccine subsidies.</p><p>Although the bailout bill was passed in the U.S. Senate, it was unanimously opposed by Republicans.</p><p>It is reported that when Biden introduced the bill, he planned to raise the minimum wage to $15 per hour, but Senator Elizabeth MacDonough ruled on February 25 that the plan to raise the minimum wage was not in line with The provisions of the budget coordination plan should not be included in the $1.9 trillion economic rescue plan.</p><p>U.S. Senate Majority Leader Schumer said that the House of Representatives is expected to pass an economic stimulus bill, and U.S. President Joe Biden will sign the bill before the March 14 deadline, because the extended unemployment assistance measures will expire that day.</p><p>U.S. GDP growth will explode</p><p>As the U.S. Democratic Party is about to pass a nearly $2 trillion economic stimulus bill and the vaccination program continues to advance, the U.S. economic outlook looks more optimistic than in early January.</p><p>According to the latest monthly survey of the agency, the economists surveyed expect the GDP of the United States to grow by about 4.8% year-on-year in the first quarter, twice the expectation in January. Full-year U.S. GDP growth is expected to be 5.5%, which will be the fastest growth rate since 1984 and higher than January's estimate of 4.1%.</p><p>Reports suggest congressional Democrats may consider more stimulus measures after the U.S. Senate passes a $1.9 trillion economic stimulus package, which will depend on economic and epidemic conditions in the coming months. U.S. Senate Majority Leader Schumer said that our primary goal is to help the American people. If they need more help, we will pass another bill. If this bill is enough and it brings a lot of help, then we won't pass another bill.</p><p>U.S. stocks reverse</p><p>According to data released by the U.S. Department of Labor on Friday, the U.S. added 379,000 new non-farm jobs in February, better than expected 210,000, and the unemployment rate fell to 6.2%. The January data was revised up from 49,000 new jobs to 166,000.</p><p>Among them, the leisure hotel industry rebounded the strongest, with a net increase of 355,000 jobs in February. In terms of sub-sectors, restaurants and bars created 286,000 new jobs, and the hotel industry hired 36,000 additional employees.</p><p>On Friday, when U.S. bond yields fluctuated at high levels, U.S. stocks also fluctuated violently. During the session, the Dow once fell 174 points, the Nasdaq once fell 2.67%, and the S&P 500 once fell more than 1%.</p><p>The Dow Jones Industrial Average reversed, rising to 31,580 points in late trading, rebounding 812 points from the intraday low. As of the close, the Dow rose 1.85% to 31,496 points. During the session, Federal Reserve Kashkari said that full employment has not been reached now and he is not worried about inflation.</p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> source：<a href=\"https://cj.sina.cn/article/normal_detail?url=https://finance.sina.com.cn/stock/zqgd/2021-03-07/doc-ikkntiak5686640.shtml\">e公司</a></p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7ae95043f60aecab0531758d2129fd42","relate_stocks":{"DDM":"2倍做多道指ETF-ProShares","DJX":"1/100道琼斯","UDOW":"三倍做多道指30ETF-ProShares","DOG":"道指ETF-ProShares做空","DXD":"两倍做空道琼30指数ETF-ProShares","SDOW":"三倍做空道指30ETF-ProShares"},"source_url":"https://cj.sina.cn/article/normal_detail?url=https://finance.sina.com.cn/stock/zqgd/2021-03-07/doc-ikkntiak5686640.shtml","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2117554496","content_text":"拜登继续疯狂“印钱”！25小时马拉松，1票决定2万亿美元，参议院通过刺激计划！共和党一致反对，拜登：这一计划让GDP增加1万亿！周末重磅！美国参议院投票通过了1.9万亿美元（约12万亿人民币）新一轮经济救助计划。最新，美国总统拜登6日表示，参议院通过了1.9万亿美元的新冠纾困法案，这意味着向大多数美国人支付的1400美元将于本月开始发放，该法案的条款也将加快疫苗的生产和分发。拜登还表示，经济刺激计划可以使美国国内生产总值增加1万亿美元。前总统奥巴马在法案通过后随即发表系列推文赞扬这一进程。他在推文中说，“只有当我们选出致力于改善民众生活的政府领导人时，才会发生这种进步，这也提醒我们为什么投票如此重要。马拉松投票！1票决定12万亿刺激计划周六，美国总统拜登提出的1.9万亿美元经济刺激计划在参议院以50-49的票数获得通过。此前，参议院进行了长达25个多小时的马拉松式修正案投票。刺激计划将再次提交给众议院审理，民主党希望下周能使其签署成为法律。这项计划的通过将使拜登在立法工作方面获得首项胜利，并为他希望提出的大规模基础设施和制造业复苏法案奠定了基础。共和党人一致反对值得注意的是，此前，美国众议院投票通过了1.9万亿美元新一轮经济救助计划。这次众议院的投票是针对修正法案。该法案包括每人1400美元的救助支票（需要符合个人或家庭年收入标准），贯穿整个夏季的每周300美元的失业救济金，一年最高3600美元的儿童津贴，3500亿美元的国家援助补贴，340亿美元的《可负担医疗法案》补贴以及140亿美元的新冠疫苗补贴。虽然该纾困救助法案在美国参议院获通过，但遭到共和党人一致反对。据悉，拜登在提出该法案时，曾计划在其中将最低工资提升至每小时15美元，但参议院议员伊丽莎白·麦克唐纳（Elizabeth MacDonough）于2月25日裁定，提高最低工资的计划不符合预算协调方案的规定，不应将其包括在1.9万亿美元的经济救助计划之中。美国参议院多数党领袖舒默表示，预计众议院将通过经济刺激法案，美国总统拜登将在3月14日的最后期限前签署该法案，因已经延长的失业援助措施将在那天到期。美国GDP增速将爆发而随着美国民主党即将通过近2万亿美元的经济刺激法案，以及疫苗接种计划继续推进，美国经济前景比1月初看起来更加乐观。机构最新月度调查显示，受访经济学家预计美国第一季度GDP将同比增长约4.8%，是1月份预期的2倍。预计美国全年GDP增速为5.5%，这将是1984年以来的最快增速，高于1月份4.1%的预期。有报道显示，在美国参议院通过1.9万亿美元的经济刺激计划后，国会民主党人可能考虑更多的刺激措施，这将取决于未来几个月的经济和疫情状况。美国参议院多数党领袖舒默表示，我们的首要目标是帮助美国人民，如果他们需要更多的帮助，我们会通过另一项法案。如果这个法案足够，而且带来了很大的帮助，那么我们就不会再通过另一项法案了。美股大逆转据美国劳工部周五公布的数据，2月美国新增非农就业37.9万，好于预期值21万，失业率跌至6.2%，1月数据由新增就业4.9万上修为16.6万。其中，休闲酒店行业反弹最为强劲，2月净增岗位35.5万，分细分行业来看，餐厅酒吧新增就业28.6万，酒店行业增聘人手3.6万。周五，美债收益率高位震荡之际，美股波动也十分剧烈。盘中，道指一度下跌174点，纳指一度大跌2.67%，标普500一度跌超1%。而道指实现逆转，尾盘涨至31580点，与日内低点相比反弹812点。截至收盘，道指上涨1.85%，报31496点。盘中，美联储卡什卡利表示，现在没有达到充分就业，对通胀不感到担忧。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"SDOW":0.9,"UDOW":0.9,"DDM":0.9,"DXD":0.9,"DJX":0.9,"DOG":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1253,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":320086367,"gmtCreate":1614990794759,"gmtModify":1704777945404,"author":{"id":"3576476136293909","authorId":"3576476136293909","name":"小老二","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5c4122726bb17be855a0fd1a62d04a04","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3576476136293909","idStr":"3576476136293909"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"?????","listText":"?????","text":"?????","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/320086367","repostId":"2117688834","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"2117688834","kind":"news","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"创业路上关键一招。","home_visible":1,"media_name":"接招","id":"1049897162","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/27bae14b56414ca59b681e5e9b6a9596"},"pubTimestamp":1614910545,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/2117688834?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2021-03-05 10:15","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"Apple is a luck stock, not a value stock","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2117688834","media":"接招","summary":"前几天巴菲特发布了一年一度的致股东信，苹果毫无悬念地再次成为伯克希尔旗下的第一重仓股，持仓市值达到1200亿美元，而2016年的买入成本是300亿美元。5年时间获得了三倍的账面收益（减持之后）。\n在净","content":"<p>A few days ago, Buffett released his annual letter to shareholders,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AAPL\">Apple</a>Without any suspense to be again<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BRK.A\">Berkshire</a>Its largest holding stock has a market value of US $120 billion, while the purchase cost in 2016 was US $30 billion. Gained three times the book income in 5 years (after the reduction of holdings).</p><p>In 2020, when net profit has been hit hard, fortunately, there are still fruit companies to support Berkshire's appearance.</p><p>In the past ten years, for many Chinese value investors, if there are three companies that are their ideal targets, they must be Maotai,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/00700\">Tencent</a>And apples.</p><p>According to Buffett's philosophy, the so-called value stock is a company with moat attributes that is undervalued by the market. The moat is not difficult to understand, that is, it has a monopoly effect in a certain market, such as Moutai's influence in the high-end liquor market, Tencent's obvious advantages in social and gaming tracks, and Apple's appeal in the high-end mobile phone market.</p><p>One advantage of the moat is that even if the price is raised, it will not lose market share. Moutai and Apple mobile phones are obvious examples, and their prices have been rising in recent years.</p><p>The key is how to understand undervalued, or how to value undervalued stocks.</p><p>The common valuation method of value investing is discounted cash flow, which is the intrinsic value of the company by dividing the shareholder earnings by an appropriate discount rate. On the other hand, you buy long-term Treasury Bond with a huge sum of money, and the annual interest income is equivalent to the company's shareholder surplus (generally close to the net profit), and dividing the interest income by the interest rate is the real amount of this huge sum of money, that is, the intrinsic value of the company.</p><p>Therefore, this valuation method contains a variable and a constant: shareholder earnings is a variable, and the discount rate (long-term Treasury Bond interest rate) is a constant.</p><p>When Buffett was looking for undervalued stocks in his early years, he paid more attention to whether they were undervalued at that time, rather than whether they still had growth potential, commonly known as \"picking up cigarette butts.\" Such companies are generally small-cap stocks that attract little attention, and ultimately reach a reasonable valuation range through price regression rather than value growth. This stage can be called Value Investing 1.0.</p><p>Later, under the influence of Munger, he began to look for stocks that were not only undervalued, but also had huge growth potential in the future. This shift marks an important watershed in value investing: from just picking up bargains to paying more attention to future profitability. This stage can be called Value Investing 2.0.</p><p>The difference between Value Investing 1.0 and Value Investing 2.0 is that the former considers currently undervalued stocks, while the latter considers future undervalued stocks. The core lies in whether the company's profitability (shareholder earnings) continues to grow.</p><p>Therefore, the growth of shareholder earnings becomes a prediction of the company's ability to create cash flow in the future. For example, according to the growth of the company's net profit, it is predicted how much money it will earn in the next ten years. Divide it by 10 and then divide it by a discount rate. The true intrinsic value of the company.</p><p>It can be seen that the most difficult thing about value investing is to predict and estimate the company's profitability, because generally speaking, the discount rate is dead and the annual net profit is alive. The denominator is static and the numerator is dynamic.</p><p>But in the past five years, the determinant of Apple's market value has not been the numerator, but the denominator!</p><p>In fiscal year 2016, Apple's revenue was US $210 billion and its net profit was US $45 billion; In fiscal year 2020, revenue was US $270 billion and net profit was US $57 billion. The two indicators that best represent profitability, with increases of 28% and 26% respectively.</p><p>Let's take a look at Moutai, which is also the king of consumer stocks: its revenue in fiscal year 2016 was 40 billion yuan. Although the 2020 financial report has not yet come out, the revenue of 90 billion yuan should not be a big problem; The net profit in 2016 was 18 billion yuan, and last year's net profit should be around 50 billion yuan. The increases of the two indicators were 125% and 170% respectively.</p><p>From 2016 to 2020, Maotai's market value has increased 9 times; During the same period, Apple's market value more than quadrupled. However, Moutai's profitability has doubled in the past five years, while Apple's profit growth rate is only less than 30% (note: it is not an annual growth of 30%, but a total growth of 30% in five years). What does Apple rely on to support such a high market value?</p><p>The answer is that the denominator has changed. And it's a huge change. Buffett mentioned in this shareholder letter that the yield of the ten-year Treasury Bond in the United States in the past ten years was less than 1%. Last year, it was only 0.5% at its lowest, and 40 years ago, this figure was 15%. Even five years ago, the yield on the 10-year Treasury Bond in the United States was close to 2.5%.</p><p>Anyone who has been in the third grade of primary school knows that the smaller the denominator, the greater the quotient without obvious change in the numerator.</p><p>If we have to say that the stock god's purchase of Apple is a value investment, it is also a value investment 1.0, that is, buying the bottom in a timely manner according to the idea of picking up cigarette butts. But in any case, this deal doesn't belong to Value Investing 2.0. After all, in terms of revenue and profit growth rate, Apple is considered slow among technology companies.</p><p>What I really want to thank is the Federal Reserve and Trump.</p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Apple is a luck stock, not a value stock</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nApple is a luck stock, not a value stock\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/1049897162\">\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/27bae14b56414ca59b681e5e9b6a9596);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">接招 </p>\n<p class=\"h-time smaller\">2021-03-05 10:15</p>\n</div>\n</a>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>A few days ago, Buffett released his annual letter to shareholders,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AAPL\">Apple</a>Without any suspense to be again<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BRK.A\">Berkshire</a>Its largest holding stock has a market value of US $120 billion, while the purchase cost in 2016 was US $30 billion. Gained three times the book income in 5 years (after the reduction of holdings).</p><p>In 2020, when net profit has been hit hard, fortunately, there are still fruit companies to support Berkshire's appearance.</p><p>In the past ten years, for many Chinese value investors, if there are three companies that are their ideal targets, they must be Maotai,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/00700\">Tencent</a>And apples.</p><p>According to Buffett's philosophy, the so-called value stock is a company with moat attributes that is undervalued by the market. The moat is not difficult to understand, that is, it has a monopoly effect in a certain market, such as Moutai's influence in the high-end liquor market, Tencent's obvious advantages in social and gaming tracks, and Apple's appeal in the high-end mobile phone market.</p><p>One advantage of the moat is that even if the price is raised, it will not lose market share. Moutai and Apple mobile phones are obvious examples, and their prices have been rising in recent years.</p><p>The key is how to understand undervalued, or how to value undervalued stocks.</p><p>The common valuation method of value investing is discounted cash flow, which is the intrinsic value of the company by dividing the shareholder earnings by an appropriate discount rate. On the other hand, you buy long-term Treasury Bond with a huge sum of money, and the annual interest income is equivalent to the company's shareholder surplus (generally close to the net profit), and dividing the interest income by the interest rate is the real amount of this huge sum of money, that is, the intrinsic value of the company.</p><p>Therefore, this valuation method contains a variable and a constant: shareholder earnings is a variable, and the discount rate (long-term Treasury Bond interest rate) is a constant.</p><p>When Buffett was looking for undervalued stocks in his early years, he paid more attention to whether they were undervalued at that time, rather than whether they still had growth potential, commonly known as \"picking up cigarette butts.\" Such companies are generally small-cap stocks that attract little attention, and ultimately reach a reasonable valuation range through price regression rather than value growth. This stage can be called Value Investing 1.0.</p><p>Later, under the influence of Munger, he began to look for stocks that were not only undervalued, but also had huge growth potential in the future. This shift marks an important watershed in value investing: from just picking up bargains to paying more attention to future profitability. This stage can be called Value Investing 2.0.</p><p>The difference between Value Investing 1.0 and Value Investing 2.0 is that the former considers currently undervalued stocks, while the latter considers future undervalued stocks. The core lies in whether the company's profitability (shareholder earnings) continues to grow.</p><p>Therefore, the growth of shareholder earnings becomes a prediction of the company's ability to create cash flow in the future. For example, according to the growth of the company's net profit, it is predicted how much money it will earn in the next ten years. Divide it by 10 and then divide it by a discount rate. The true intrinsic value of the company.</p><p>It can be seen that the most difficult thing about value investing is to predict and estimate the company's profitability, because generally speaking, the discount rate is dead and the annual net profit is alive. The denominator is static and the numerator is dynamic.</p><p>But in the past five years, the determinant of Apple's market value has not been the numerator, but the denominator!</p><p>In fiscal year 2016, Apple's revenue was US $210 billion and its net profit was US $45 billion; In fiscal year 2020, revenue was US $270 billion and net profit was US $57 billion. The two indicators that best represent profitability, with increases of 28% and 26% respectively.</p><p>Let's take a look at Moutai, which is also the king of consumer stocks: its revenue in fiscal year 2016 was 40 billion yuan. Although the 2020 financial report has not yet come out, the revenue of 90 billion yuan should not be a big problem; The net profit in 2016 was 18 billion yuan, and last year's net profit should be around 50 billion yuan. The increases of the two indicators were 125% and 170% respectively.</p><p>From 2016 to 2020, Maotai's market value has increased 9 times; During the same period, Apple's market value more than quadrupled. However, Moutai's profitability has doubled in the past five years, while Apple's profit growth rate is only less than 30% (note: it is not an annual growth of 30%, but a total growth of 30% in five years). What does Apple rely on to support such a high market value?</p><p>The answer is that the denominator has changed. And it's a huge change. Buffett mentioned in this shareholder letter that the yield of the ten-year Treasury Bond in the United States in the past ten years was less than 1%. Last year, it was only 0.5% at its lowest, and 40 years ago, this figure was 15%. Even five years ago, the yield on the 10-year Treasury Bond in the United States was close to 2.5%.</p><p>Anyone who has been in the third grade of primary school knows that the smaller the denominator, the greater the quotient without obvious change in the numerator.</p><p>If we have to say that the stock god's purchase of Apple is a value investment, it is also a value investment 1.0, that is, buying the bottom in a timely manner according to the idea of picking up cigarette butts. But in any case, this deal doesn't belong to Value Investing 2.0. After all, in terms of revenue and profit growth rate, Apple is considered slow among technology companies.</p><p>What I really want to thank is the Federal Reserve and Trump.</p>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/052d0d3a6389985cf72883e9c3047ae4","relate_stocks":{"AAPL":"苹果"},"is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2117688834","content_text":"前几天巴菲特发布了一年一度的致股东信，苹果毫无悬念地再次成为伯克希尔旗下的第一重仓股，持仓市值达到1200亿美元，而2016年的买入成本是300亿美元。5年时间获得了三倍的账面收益（减持之后）。\n在净利润遭受重创的2020年，幸亏还有水果公司给伯克希尔撑撑门面。\n过去十年，对于很多中国价值投资者来说，如果有三家公司是他们心目中理想的标的，一定是茅台、腾讯和苹果。\n按照巴菲特的理念，所谓价值股就是一家具有护城河属性的公司被市场低估了。护城河不难理解，就是在某个市场具有垄断效应，比如茅台在高端白酒市场的影响力、腾讯在社交和游戏赛道的明显优势、苹果在高端手机市场的号召力。\n护城河的一个优势就是即使提价也不至于失去市场份额。茅台酒和苹果手机都是很明显的例子，这几年的售价一直在走高。\n关键是如何理解被低估，或者是如何给被低估的股票估值。\n价值投资的常用估值方法是现金流折现，用股东盈余除以一个合适的贴现率，就是公司的内在价值。反过来理解就是，你用一笔巨款买了长期国债，每年的利息收益就相当于是公司的股东盈余（一般接近净利润），而用利息收益除以利率，就是这笔巨款的真实数目，也就是公司的内在价值。\n所以，这套估值方法包含一个变量和一个常量：股东盈余是变量，贴现率（长期国债利率）是常量。\n巴菲特早年寻找被低估的股票时，更多的是考虑当时是否被低估，而不去关心是否还有成长性，俗称“捡烟头”。这类公司一般都是不太为人关注的小盘股，最终通过价格回归而不是价值增长达到合理估值区间。这个阶段可以称之为价值投资1.0。\n后来在芒格的影响下，开始寻找那些不仅被低估，而且未来还有巨大成长性的股票。这个转向标志着价值投资的重要分水岭：即从只是为了捡便宜转变为更加看重未来的赚钱能力。这个阶段可以称之为价值投资2.0。\n价值投资1.0与价值投资2.0不同之处在于，前者考虑的是当前被低估的股票，后者考虑的是未来被低估的股票。核心在于公司的赚钱能力（股东盈余）是不是持续增长。\n所以，股东盈余的增长就变成了对公司未来创造现金流能力的预测，比如根据公司净利润的增长情况，预测出未来十年一共能赚多少钱，除以10之后再除以一个贴现率就是公司真实的内在价值。\n可以看出，价值投资最难的是对公司赚钱能力的预测和估算，因为一般来说贴现率是死的，每年的净利润是活的。分母是静态的，分子是动态的。\n但过去五年，苹果市值的决定因素不是分子，而是分母！\n2016财年，苹果的营收是2100亿美元，净利润是450亿美元；2020财年，营收是2700亿美元，净利润是570亿美元。两个最能代表盈利能力的指标，增幅分别为28%和26%。\n再来看看同为消费股王者的茅台：2016财年营收是400亿人民币，2020年财报虽然还没出来，但900亿的营收应该问题不大；2016年净利润180亿人民币，去年的净利应该在500亿人民币左右。两个指标的增幅分别为125%和170%。\n茅台从2016年到2020年，市值增长了9倍；同一时期苹果市值增长了4倍多。但是，过去五年茅台的盈利能力翻倍了，而苹果的盈利增速只有30%以内（注意：不是每年增长30%，而是五年一共增长了30%）。苹果靠什么撑起了如此高的市值？\n答案是分母变了。而且是巨大的变化。巴菲特在这次的股东信中提到，最近十年美国十年期国债的收益率不到1%，去年最低时只有0.5%，而在40年前，这个数字是15%。即使五年前，美国十年期国债的收益率也是接近2.5%。\n读过小学三年级的人都知道，在分子无明显变化的情况下，分母越小商就越大。\n如果非要说股神对苹果的买进属于价值投资，那也是价值投资1.0，即按照捡烟头的思路适时抄底。但无论如何，这笔交易也不属于价值投资2.0。毕竟，就营收和利润增长速度来看，苹果在科技股公司中都算慢的了。\n真正要感谢的，是美联储，是特朗普。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"AAPL":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1047,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":364788990,"gmtCreate":1614874278110,"gmtModify":1704776478661,"author":{"id":"3576476136293909","authorId":"3576476136293909","name":"小老二","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5c4122726bb17be855a0fd1a62d04a04","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3576476136293909","idStr":"3576476136293909"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"。。。。。。。","listText":"。。。。。。。","text":"。。。。。。。","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/364788990","repostId":"2116384520","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"2116384520","kind":"highlight","pubTimestamp":1614834257,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/2116384520?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2021-03-04 13:04","market":"fut","language":"zh","title":"Increased production suspended? OPEC + 's silence is worrying","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2116384520","media":"金十数据","summary":"欧佩克+部长级会议将于今晚(3月4日)北京时间晚上21:00开始，届时欧佩克+将讨论是否增加产量的问题。然而，周三的初步谈判几乎没有透露它们是否会像市场预期的那样在4月份增加石油供应，这给今天的会议又","content":"<p>The OPEC + ministerial meeting will begin tonight (March 4) at 21:00 p.m. Beijing time, when OPEC + will discuss whether to increase production. However,<b>Wednesday's preliminary</b><b>Negotiate</b><b>Little is revealed whether they will be like</b><b>market</b><b>Increase oil supply in April as expected,</b>This adds some uncertainty to today's meeting,<b>It is beginning to doubt whether OPEC will increase production.</b></p><p>Saudi Arabia and Russia held bilateral talks on Wednesday to seek consensus, an OPEC representative said. Saudi Arabia urged all parties to tread cautiously, while Russia urged to increase oil production. While OPEC + is still widely expected to resume some production,<b>The preliminary ministerial meeting held on Wednesday did not give specific details.</b></p><p>The trend of oil prices in the coming months will depend on the outcome of the plenary meeting of OPEC and its allies on Thursday. If the group doesn't provide all the extra crude oil the market needs to drive the economy's recovery from the pandemic, crude oil prices are likely to continue higher.</p><p>Jinshi also mentioned earlier that the market generally expects OPEC + to increase production in April, and countries such as the United Arab Emirates also hinted at support for increasing production. At present, some institutions still insist that they will increase production.</p><p>Amrita Sen, chief oil analyst and co-founder of Energy Aspects, said,<b>OPEC + is likely to increase only a small percentage of production in April, and any production increase lower than previously expected \"should be considered as</b><b>Bullish</b><b>Signal \".</b></p><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/RY\">Royal Bank of Canada</a>Helima Croft, chief commodities strategist at RBC Capital Markets,<b>Given Russia's demand for an increase in production, it is unlikely that OPEC will maintain production at current levels in April, with the most likely outcome being an increase of 500,000-1 million barrels per day.</b></p><p>While OPEC and ministers may not be giving clear signals, recent oil price trends suggest the market needs more supply. Brent crude oil has risen 24% this year.</p><p>However, the OPEC Joint Ministerial Monitoring Committee held on Wednesday did not make recommendations on oil production, coupled with the support of several member countries to keep production unchanged in April. The views of some institutions have also become cautious. They believe that there is great uncertainty in this meeting and an agreement on increasing production may not necessarily be reached.</p><p>According to a Reuters report on Wednesday,<b>Three OPEC + sources have said that several OPEC + oil-producing countries currently support the idea of keeping April production unchanged.</b></p><p>In addition, the resurgence of geopolitical turmoil in the Middle East has also added more uncertainty to the oil market. Last week, Syria was attacked, and there was a counter-attack on Wednesday. On the 3rd local time, Assad Air Force Base in western Iraq was attacked by at least 10 rockets. U.S. troops and Iraqi armed forces are stationed in Assad Air Force Base. Earlier, the United States revisited the Kachouqi incident in 2018...</p><p>With<b>The situation in the Middle East is gradually tense, and the supply of oil is stable</b><b>Risk</b><b>Increased sex.</b>In this case, oil-producing countries such as Saudi Arabia may be more inclined to maintain the status quo.</p><p>Said Bob McNally, president of consulting firm Rapidan Energy Group and a former White House official,<b>From risk</b><b>manage</b><b>From a perspective, it seems that the trend of tightening supply should be maintained for a while longer, although this is a bit beyond market expectations.</b></p><p>Ed Morse, head of global commodity research at Citigroup, suggested,<b>Don't take OPEC's increase in production for granted. He has told</b><b>client</b><b>He will not in any way at this OPEC meeting</b><b>Investment</b><b>Crude oil, because there are so many uncertainties.</b></p>","source":"jssj","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Increased production suspended? OPEC + 's silence is worrying</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nIncreased production suspended? OPEC + 's silence is worrying\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">金十数据</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-03-04 13:04</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>The OPEC + ministerial meeting will begin tonight (March 4) at 21:00 p.m. Beijing time, when OPEC + will discuss whether to increase production. However,<b>Wednesday's preliminary</b><b>Negotiate</b><b>Little is revealed whether they will be like</b><b>market</b><b>Increase oil supply in April as expected,</b>This adds some uncertainty to today's meeting,<b>It is beginning to doubt whether OPEC will increase production.</b></p><p>Saudi Arabia and Russia held bilateral talks on Wednesday to seek consensus, an OPEC representative said. Saudi Arabia urged all parties to tread cautiously, while Russia urged to increase oil production. While OPEC + is still widely expected to resume some production,<b>The preliminary ministerial meeting held on Wednesday did not give specific details.</b></p><p>The trend of oil prices in the coming months will depend on the outcome of the plenary meeting of OPEC and its allies on Thursday. If the group doesn't provide all the extra crude oil the market needs to drive the economy's recovery from the pandemic, crude oil prices are likely to continue higher.</p><p>Jinshi also mentioned earlier that the market generally expects OPEC + to increase production in April, and countries such as the United Arab Emirates also hinted at support for increasing production. At present, some institutions still insist that they will increase production.</p><p>Amrita Sen, chief oil analyst and co-founder of Energy Aspects, said,<b>OPEC + is likely to increase only a small percentage of production in April, and any production increase lower than previously expected \"should be considered as</b><b>Bullish</b><b>Signal \".</b></p><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/RY\">Royal Bank of Canada</a>Helima Croft, chief commodities strategist at RBC Capital Markets,<b>Given Russia's demand for an increase in production, it is unlikely that OPEC will maintain production at current levels in April, with the most likely outcome being an increase of 500,000-1 million barrels per day.</b></p><p>While OPEC and ministers may not be giving clear signals, recent oil price trends suggest the market needs more supply. Brent crude oil has risen 24% this year.</p><p>However, the OPEC Joint Ministerial Monitoring Committee held on Wednesday did not make recommendations on oil production, coupled with the support of several member countries to keep production unchanged in April. The views of some institutions have also become cautious. They believe that there is great uncertainty in this meeting and an agreement on increasing production may not necessarily be reached.</p><p>According to a Reuters report on Wednesday,<b>Three OPEC + sources have said that several OPEC + oil-producing countries currently support the idea of keeping April production unchanged.</b></p><p>In addition, the resurgence of geopolitical turmoil in the Middle East has also added more uncertainty to the oil market. Last week, Syria was attacked, and there was a counter-attack on Wednesday. On the 3rd local time, Assad Air Force Base in western Iraq was attacked by at least 10 rockets. U.S. troops and Iraqi armed forces are stationed in Assad Air Force Base. Earlier, the United States revisited the Kachouqi incident in 2018...</p><p>With<b>The situation in the Middle East is gradually tense, and the supply of oil is stable</b><b>Risk</b><b>Increased sex.</b>In this case, oil-producing countries such as Saudi Arabia may be more inclined to maintain the status quo.</p><p>Said Bob McNally, president of consulting firm Rapidan Energy Group and a former White House official,<b>From risk</b><b>manage</b><b>From a perspective, it seems that the trend of tightening supply should be maintained for a while longer, although this is a bit beyond market expectations.</b></p><p>Ed Morse, head of global commodity research at Citigroup, suggested,<b>Don't take OPEC's increase in production for granted. He has told</b><b>client</b><b>He will not in any way at this OPEC meeting</b><b>Investment</b><b>Crude oil, because there are so many uncertainties.</b></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> source：<a href=\"http://global.eastmoney.com/a/202103041830203574_0.html\">金十数据</a></p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3faadc006e67e6ac130a7b171f263b4d","relate_stocks":{"DWT":"三倍做空原油ETN","DUG":"二倍做空石油与天然气ETF(ProShares)","UCO":"二倍做多彭博原油ETF","USO":"美国原油ETF","DDG":"ProShares做空石油与天然气ETF","SCO":"二倍做空彭博原油指数ETF"},"source_url":"http://global.eastmoney.com/a/202103041830203574_0.html","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2116384520","content_text":"欧佩克+部长级会议将于今晚(3月4日)北京时间晚上21:00开始，届时欧佩克+将讨论是否增加产量的问题。然而，周三的初步谈判几乎没有透露它们是否会像市场预期的那样在4月份增加石油供应，这给今天的会议又增添了一些不确定性，令人开始怀疑欧佩克是否会增产。\n一名欧佩克代表表示，沙特和俄罗斯周三举行了双边会谈，寻求共识。沙特敦促各方谨慎行事，俄罗斯则敦促提高石油产量。尽管欧佩克+仍被广泛预期将恢复部分产量，但周三举行的部长级初步会议并没有给出具体细节。\n未来几个月的油价走势将取决于周四欧佩克及其盟国的全体会议的结果。如果该组织不能提供市场所需的所有额外原油，以推动经济从疫情中复苏，原油价格可能会继续走高。\n金十此前也提到，市场普遍预期欧佩克+会在4月份增加产量，阿联酋等国也暗示支持增产。目前仍有部分机构坚持认为会增产。\nEnergy Aspects首席石油分析师兼联合创始人Amrita Sen表示，欧佩克+ 4月份可能仅将提高很小一部分产量，任何低于此前预期产量增长“都应被视为看涨信号”。\n加拿大皇家银行资本市场(RBC Capital Markets)首席大宗商品策略师赫利玛克罗夫特(Helima Croft)表示，鉴于俄罗斯要求增产，欧佩克+在4月将产量维持在目前水平的可能性很小，最有可能的结果是增产50-100万桶/日。\n虽然欧佩克和部长们可能没有给出明确的信号，但最近的油价趋势表明，市场需要更多的供应。布伦特原油今年累计上涨24%。\n不过，由于周三举行的欧佩克联合部长级监督委员会没有提出关于石油产量的建议，再加上几个成员国支持4月保持产量不变的意见。部分机构的观点也变得谨慎，他们认为，这次会议存在很大的不确定性，并不一定会就增产达成协议。\n根据路透周三的报道，已有三位欧佩克+消息人士表示，数个欧佩克+产油国目前支持维持4月产量不变的意见。\n此外，中东的地缘政治风云再起，也给油市增加了更多的不确定性。上周，叙利亚被袭，周三就出现了反袭击。当地时间3日，位于伊拉克西部的阿萨德空军基地遭到至少10枚火箭弹袭击，阿萨德空军基地内驻扎有美军和伊拉克武装部队。还有此前美国重提2018年的卡舒吉事件……\n随着中东局势逐渐紧张，石油稳定供应的风险性增加。在这种情况下，沙特等产油国可能会更加倾向于维持现状。\n咨询公司Rapidan Energy Group总裁、前白宫官员鲍勃·麦克纳利(Bob McNally)表示，从风险管理的角度来看，供应收紧的趋势似乎应该再维持一段时间，尽管这有点超出市场预期。\n花旗集团全球大宗商品研究主管Ed Morse建议，不要认为欧佩克的增产是理所当然的。他已经告诉客户，他不会在这次欧佩克会议上以任何方式投资原油，因为有太多的不确定因素。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"SCO":0.9,"DDG":0.9,"UWTIF":0.9,"UCO":0.9,"DUG":0.9,"DWT":0.9,"USO":0.9,"DWTIF":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1105,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":364819919,"gmtCreate":1614832401531,"gmtModify":1704775787823,"author":{"id":"3576476136293909","authorId":"3576476136293909","name":"小老二","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5c4122726bb17be855a0fd1a62d04a04","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3576476136293909","idStr":"3576476136293909"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"????","listText":"????","text":"????","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/364819919","repostId":"2116256529","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"2116256529","kind":"highlight","pubTimestamp":1614829296,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/2116256529?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2021-03-04 11:41","market":"hk","language":"zh","title":"Financial markets are \"hyperinflated\" and money printers have destroyed the value investing system","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2116256529","media":"西泽研究院","summary":"既然泡沫是货币宽松吹起来的，拐点还是要货币来决定","content":"<p>If hyperinflation is a crisis, the crisis has already happened. Crazy asset bubbles are essentially \"hyperinflation\" in financial markets. For some stocks, you could buy 1 share for 10 yuan in the past, but now you can only buy 0.01 shares.</p><p>Looking at the financial market from this perspective, there may be different views on the persistence of bubbles. Recently, there have been more and more short shouts and warnings in the market, but the bubble is still very tough, and the market is so magical. One thing to remember is that you have to tie the bell. Since the bubble was blown by monetary easing, the inflection point is still determined by currency.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2b25907e6354eac6e4bbcb5004f80ff2\" tg-width=\"580\" tg-height=\"312\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>For the United States, the main body of leverage this time is almost entirely the government, which means that the main body of the bubble is the base currency-which is particularly in line with the monetary conditions of hyperinflation in history, that is, the Federal Reserve directly prints money instead of commercial banks. Generate credit. Of course, the current broad money M2 in the United States has also reached a record high.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6576293af71557c0efb34ee9c17fdaf4\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"821\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>Why is the government's direct printing of money a typical feature of hyperinflation? This is because, compared with commercial banks' lending to create money according to the risk control standards of the real economy, the government's direct printing of money is often only a distribution behavior rather than a production behavior, and will not directly relate to the value creation of the real economy. Therefore, it is not so much the magical market that makes value investing fail (in the context of the 2020 bull market, Buffett's company profits fell by 48%), but it is better to say that the money printers destroyed the value investing system.</p><p>Therefore, it is not so much a crazy asset bubble as a \"hyperinflation\" in the asset market.<b>More and more institutional investors are already comparing U.S. money printing in 2020 to the Weimar Republic at the beginning of the last century</b>This idea led to the crazy looting of Bitcoin. Looking at it from another angle, it is actually the crazy depreciation of the US dollar in the digital currency market.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d27075184ee3417e7ae71ffa1dff1463\" tg-width=\"423\" tg-height=\"293\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>In addition to Bitcoin and the stock market, hyperinflation or<b>The collapse of fiat banknotes has spread to commodity markets,</b>Various raw materials such as steel, copper, PVC, and paper are skyrocketing. This is a very bad omen, which means that the hyperinflation of paper money will soon spread to the commodity market, forming a real macro event that will have a significant impact on the public.</p><p>It's just a matter of time-the transmission time lag between money and inflation.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/75cfaa56e67eddd9e5695b7444ea8637\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"598\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>Yet money printers don't seem to be awakened-except for Chinese regulators. The attitude of China's regulators is very clear. Before the bubble collapses, they should be prepared to hedge the crisis in advance. The speech of Guo Shuqing, Chairman of the China Banking and Insurance Regulatory Commission, was inspiring:</p><p>The bubble could burst at any moment.</p><p>China's central bank has also remained awake, seemingly trying to nip fires in the bud. The Federal Reserve, on the other hand, has been in a \"drunk tango\" unwilling to wake up. Even exit signals such as soaring Treasury Bond yields, they selectively ignore, and can only say \"You can never wake up a person who pretends to sleep.\"</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/279fb2ed29e72f1596cef3ca929f3bb6\" tg-width=\"924\" tg-height=\"562\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>The 10-year U.S. Treasury yield jumped to 1.614% last week and fell 2.6 basis points to 1.396% on Tuesday.</p><p>Perhaps the Fed has no choice but to go to the dark. The money printers of the \"world dollar\" are always so willful. Perhaps it is printed that human beings will enter the ideal harmonious society of distribution according to needs. We all know everything is a bubble, but what's wrong with a bubble? Buddha said: All kinds of false appearances are like dream bubbles. Who can put down the money printing machine and become a Buddha on the ground?</p><p>The reason why Chinese regulators are determined is that they took the lead in controlling the epidemic and were lucky enough to become the only large-scale producer in the world during the period when the supply of the epidemic was limited. This is reflected in strong net exports representing external circulation.<b>Since the external circulation can support the whole circulation system, the real estate bubble representing the internal circulation can be seriously rectified</b>。 More importantly, under the dangerous situation that the Federal Reserve prints money without a bottom line and leads to a global currency flood, how to build a flood control levee to prevent international hot money from cutting leeks and bonus hunter.</p><p>At this time, don't talk about the free market, don't talk about respecting the commercial nature of capital, because when the central bank intervenes in the market so frantically, the market has already failed-the price signal of resource allocation is disordered, and it is better to speculate in real estate, Maotai and Bitcoin than to work hard in industry.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/58ae7ae4a9757517357f79e8197ef4ec\" tg-width=\"1000\" tg-height=\"688\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>Bitcoin Whale Grayscale Fund, as of February this year, held Bitcoin with a market value of more than 20 billion US dollars, and continues to increase its positions</p><p>Therefore, the national financial capacity is particularly important at this time. It refers to the country's forward-looking systemic risk prevention and control ability, and the country's ability to use a country's financial strength to allocate resources to fight a tough battle against risks. Similar to the Hong Kong dollar defense war between the mainland and Hong Kong in 1997.</p><p>Because the epidemic continues, water continues to be released, and the hidden danger of floods is still very great. International hot money is like a bloodthirsty monster, looking for prey everywhere to satisfy the appetite for expected yields. The U.S. Treasury Department still has $1.5 trillion in cash on its account, followed by the just-passed $1.9 trillion stimulus and rescue plan. The deficit ratio has set a world record, and the MMT is just a cloth of shame. Once it is opened, you don't have to care about anything anymore.</p><p>What's more, at the crisis moment of the pandemic, all this is just, necessary and indispensable. Objectively speaking, we must affirm that in this epidemic crisis,<b>The \"savior\"-like ability of money printers in various countries</b>--Originally a world-class Great Depression and Great Crisis, the money printers miraculously turned the tide through money printing, and how many families and businesses were avoided unemployment and bankruptcy.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8ff8f63c8e4ea9561e0bb9330e033db7\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"685\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>But will it really always be so amazing? Can production be completely replaced by distribution? Can emergency antibiotics replace normal diet? The money printers are actually very sober, and they know that the next task may be more severe:</p><p>How to quit? How to return to normalization?</p><p>However, not everything is reversible. Monetary easing is dynamic and asymmetric, which means \"overwhelming water is hard to recover\" in layman's terms. The basis of micro-behavior is the \"ratchet effect\", that is, from poverty to wealth and from rich to poverty, from frugality to luxury and from luxury to frugality. These two processes are asymmetric. Monetary easing, asset bubbles, from the central bank to the market, will all produce huge irreversible path dependence. In layman's terms: addiction.</p><p>Theoretically, too much water is released,<b>Equilibrium pricing replaces entity equilibrium by monetary equilibrium</b>That is, all asset pricing models CAPM should be M-CAPM. This is also the reason why value investing fails.</p><p>Currency is uncertain and will randomly deviate from the physical value. Some scholars have compared money to quantum, and the wave-particle duality of assets and liabilities. But I think the consequences of M-CAPM, more importantly, push everything into the channel of behavioral finance, psychological finance and narrative economics. Quantum uncertainty state, position and velocity cannot be obtained at the same time. Schrodinger's cat, living and dying, rising and falling, depends on the observer.</p><p>At the same time, the central bank and the market are in an ambiguous state of quantum entanglement. The latter knows that the former does not dare to stop, while the former knows that the latter knows, and the latter knows that the former knows that the latter knows... Such superimposed beliefs are indeed lingering and sad. Sometimes it looks complex and fragile, and sometimes it looks extremely rigid. Therefore, at this time, don't use linear \"classical physics\" thinking to predict the market. As long as there are still inspiring voices in the market, the bubble will continue to exist.<b>It's just that there will be more huge fluctuations</b>。 The so-called self-realization of expectations will only occur when the inflection point has passed and the trend has been formed.</p><p>And the inflection point will only come at the climax of the carnival. And at that moment, there were no sober people, including you and me.</p><p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/32e8cf6911277db9d974dd064e32f537\" tg-width=\"864\" tg-height=\"534\"><span>(Article source: Baidu)</span></p>","source":"lsy1582938116590","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Financial markets are \"hyperinflated\" and money printers have destroyed the value investing system</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nFinancial markets are \"hyperinflated\" and money printers have destroyed the value investing system\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">西泽研究院</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-03-04 11:41</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>If hyperinflation is a crisis, the crisis has already happened. Crazy asset bubbles are essentially \"hyperinflation\" in financial markets. For some stocks, you could buy 1 share for 10 yuan in the past, but now you can only buy 0.01 shares.</p><p>Looking at the financial market from this perspective, there may be different views on the persistence of bubbles. Recently, there have been more and more short shouts and warnings in the market, but the bubble is still very tough, and the market is so magical. One thing to remember is that you have to tie the bell. Since the bubble was blown by monetary easing, the inflection point is still determined by currency.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2b25907e6354eac6e4bbcb5004f80ff2\" tg-width=\"580\" tg-height=\"312\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>For the United States, the main body of leverage this time is almost entirely the government, which means that the main body of the bubble is the base currency-which is particularly in line with the monetary conditions of hyperinflation in history, that is, the Federal Reserve directly prints money instead of commercial banks. Generate credit. Of course, the current broad money M2 in the United States has also reached a record high.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6576293af71557c0efb34ee9c17fdaf4\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"821\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>Why is the government's direct printing of money a typical feature of hyperinflation? This is because, compared with commercial banks' lending to create money according to the risk control standards of the real economy, the government's direct printing of money is often only a distribution behavior rather than a production behavior, and will not directly relate to the value creation of the real economy. Therefore, it is not so much the magical market that makes value investing fail (in the context of the 2020 bull market, Buffett's company profits fell by 48%), but it is better to say that the money printers destroyed the value investing system.</p><p>Therefore, it is not so much a crazy asset bubble as a \"hyperinflation\" in the asset market.<b>More and more institutional investors are already comparing U.S. money printing in 2020 to the Weimar Republic at the beginning of the last century</b>This idea led to the crazy looting of Bitcoin. Looking at it from another angle, it is actually the crazy depreciation of the US dollar in the digital currency market.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d27075184ee3417e7ae71ffa1dff1463\" tg-width=\"423\" tg-height=\"293\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>In addition to Bitcoin and the stock market, hyperinflation or<b>The collapse of fiat banknotes has spread to commodity markets,</b>Various raw materials such as steel, copper, PVC, and paper are skyrocketing. This is a very bad omen, which means that the hyperinflation of paper money will soon spread to the commodity market, forming a real macro event that will have a significant impact on the public.</p><p>It's just a matter of time-the transmission time lag between money and inflation.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/75cfaa56e67eddd9e5695b7444ea8637\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"598\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>Yet money printers don't seem to be awakened-except for Chinese regulators. The attitude of China's regulators is very clear. Before the bubble collapses, they should be prepared to hedge the crisis in advance. The speech of Guo Shuqing, Chairman of the China Banking and Insurance Regulatory Commission, was inspiring:</p><p>The bubble could burst at any moment.</p><p>China's central bank has also remained awake, seemingly trying to nip fires in the bud. The Federal Reserve, on the other hand, has been in a \"drunk tango\" unwilling to wake up. Even exit signals such as soaring Treasury Bond yields, they selectively ignore, and can only say \"You can never wake up a person who pretends to sleep.\"</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/279fb2ed29e72f1596cef3ca929f3bb6\" tg-width=\"924\" tg-height=\"562\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>The 10-year U.S. Treasury yield jumped to 1.614% last week and fell 2.6 basis points to 1.396% on Tuesday.</p><p>Perhaps the Fed has no choice but to go to the dark. The money printers of the \"world dollar\" are always so willful. Perhaps it is printed that human beings will enter the ideal harmonious society of distribution according to needs. We all know everything is a bubble, but what's wrong with a bubble? Buddha said: All kinds of false appearances are like dream bubbles. Who can put down the money printing machine and become a Buddha on the ground?</p><p>The reason why Chinese regulators are determined is that they took the lead in controlling the epidemic and were lucky enough to become the only large-scale producer in the world during the period when the supply of the epidemic was limited. This is reflected in strong net exports representing external circulation.<b>Since the external circulation can support the whole circulation system, the real estate bubble representing the internal circulation can be seriously rectified</b>。 More importantly, under the dangerous situation that the Federal Reserve prints money without a bottom line and leads to a global currency flood, how to build a flood control levee to prevent international hot money from cutting leeks and bonus hunter.</p><p>At this time, don't talk about the free market, don't talk about respecting the commercial nature of capital, because when the central bank intervenes in the market so frantically, the market has already failed-the price signal of resource allocation is disordered, and it is better to speculate in real estate, Maotai and Bitcoin than to work hard in industry.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/58ae7ae4a9757517357f79e8197ef4ec\" tg-width=\"1000\" tg-height=\"688\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>Bitcoin Whale Grayscale Fund, as of February this year, held Bitcoin with a market value of more than 20 billion US dollars, and continues to increase its positions</p><p>Therefore, the national financial capacity is particularly important at this time. It refers to the country's forward-looking systemic risk prevention and control ability, and the country's ability to use a country's financial strength to allocate resources to fight a tough battle against risks. Similar to the Hong Kong dollar defense war between the mainland and Hong Kong in 1997.</p><p>Because the epidemic continues, water continues to be released, and the hidden danger of floods is still very great. International hot money is like a bloodthirsty monster, looking for prey everywhere to satisfy the appetite for expected yields. The U.S. Treasury Department still has $1.5 trillion in cash on its account, followed by the just-passed $1.9 trillion stimulus and rescue plan. The deficit ratio has set a world record, and the MMT is just a cloth of shame. Once it is opened, you don't have to care about anything anymore.</p><p>What's more, at the crisis moment of the pandemic, all this is just, necessary and indispensable. Objectively speaking, we must affirm that in this epidemic crisis,<b>The \"savior\"-like ability of money printers in various countries</b>--Originally a world-class Great Depression and Great Crisis, the money printers miraculously turned the tide through money printing, and how many families and businesses were avoided unemployment and bankruptcy.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8ff8f63c8e4ea9561e0bb9330e033db7\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"685\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>But will it really always be so amazing? Can production be completely replaced by distribution? Can emergency antibiotics replace normal diet? The money printers are actually very sober, and they know that the next task may be more severe:</p><p>How to quit? How to return to normalization?</p><p>However, not everything is reversible. Monetary easing is dynamic and asymmetric, which means \"overwhelming water is hard to recover\" in layman's terms. The basis of micro-behavior is the \"ratchet effect\", that is, from poverty to wealth and from rich to poverty, from frugality to luxury and from luxury to frugality. These two processes are asymmetric. Monetary easing, asset bubbles, from the central bank to the market, will all produce huge irreversible path dependence. In layman's terms: addiction.</p><p>Theoretically, too much water is released,<b>Equilibrium pricing replaces entity equilibrium by monetary equilibrium</b>That is, all asset pricing models CAPM should be M-CAPM. This is also the reason why value investing fails.</p><p>Currency is uncertain and will randomly deviate from the physical value. Some scholars have compared money to quantum, and the wave-particle duality of assets and liabilities. But I think the consequences of M-CAPM, more importantly, push everything into the channel of behavioral finance, psychological finance and narrative economics. Quantum uncertainty state, position and velocity cannot be obtained at the same time. Schrodinger's cat, living and dying, rising and falling, depends on the observer.</p><p>At the same time, the central bank and the market are in an ambiguous state of quantum entanglement. The latter knows that the former does not dare to stop, while the former knows that the latter knows, and the latter knows that the former knows that the latter knows... Such superimposed beliefs are indeed lingering and sad. Sometimes it looks complex and fragile, and sometimes it looks extremely rigid. Therefore, at this time, don't use linear \"classical physics\" thinking to predict the market. As long as there are still inspiring voices in the market, the bubble will continue to exist.<b>It's just that there will be more huge fluctuations</b>。 The so-called self-realization of expectations will only occur when the inflection point has passed and the trend has been formed.</p><p>And the inflection point will only come at the climax of the carnival. And at that moment, there were no sober people, including you and me.</p><p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/32e8cf6911277db9d974dd064e32f537\" tg-width=\"864\" tg-height=\"534\"><span>(Article source: Baidu)</span></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> source：<a href=\"http://mp.weixin.qq.com/s/sUiLnAl3Lmb-qLreSsijog\">西泽研究院</a></p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3de21f83c1ccf91eaf03e7bb8a50c812","relate_stocks":{"SQQQ":"纳指三倍做空ETF","PSQ":"做空纳斯达克100指数ETF-ProShares","TQQQ":"纳指三倍做多ETF",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite",".DJI":"道琼斯","QQQ":"纳指100ETF","QLD":"2倍做多纳斯达克100指数ETF-ProShares","QID":"两倍做空纳斯达克指数ETF-ProShares"},"source_url":"http://mp.weixin.qq.com/s/sUiLnAl3Lmb-qLreSsijog","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2116256529","content_text":"如果说恶性通胀是一种危机，那么危机已经发生。疯狂的资产泡沫本质上就是金融市场上的“恶性通胀”。有的股票，过去10元能买到1股，现在只能买到0.01股。\n从这个角度看金融市场，对泡沫的持久度可能产生不一样的看法。最近市场上喊空的，提出警告的越来越多，但泡沫依旧很坚韧，市场就是这么魔性。要记住一点，解铃还须系铃人。既然泡沫是货币宽松吹起来的，拐点还是要货币来决定。\n\n对美国来说，这一次加杠杆的主体，几乎完全是政府，这就意味着催生泡沫的主体是基础货币——这特别符合历史上恶性通胀的货币条件，即美联储直接印钞而非商业银行产生信贷。当然，美国当前的广义货币M2也创历史新高。\n\n为什么政府直接印钞是恶性通胀的典型特征，这是因为与商业银行根据实体经济风控标准放贷创造货币相比，政府直接印钞往往只是一种分配行为而非生产行为，不会直接与实体经济的价值创造关联。因此，与其说是魔性的市场让价值投资失败（2020大牛市背景下，巴菲特的公司利润下降48%），不如说是印钞者们摧毁了价值投资体系。\n因此与其说是疯狂的资产泡沫，不如说是资产市场上的“恶性通胀”。已经有越来越多的机构投资者将美国2020年的印钞行为比做上世纪初的魏玛共和国，这个念头导致比特币被疯抢，换个角度看其实就是美元在数字货币市场上疯狂的贬值。\n\n除了比特币和股市外，恶性通胀或者说法定纸币的崩溃已经蔓延到了大宗商品市场，钢、铜、PVC、纸等各种原材料都在暴涨。这是一个很不好的兆头，这意味着纸币恶性通胀很快就蔓延到商品市场，形成真正的对社会大众产生重大影响的宏观事件。\n一切不过是时间问题——货币到通胀之间的传导时滞。\n\n然而印钞者们似乎还不觉醒——除了中国的监管者。中国监管层的态度非常明确，在泡沫崩溃以前，提前做好对冲危机的准备。银保监会主席郭树清的讲话振聋发聩：\n泡沫随时都可能破灭。\n中国的央行也一直保持清醒，似乎想把火灾防患于未然。而美联储则一直在“酒醉的探戈里”不愿醒来。就连国债收益率飙升这样的退场信号，他们都选择性忽视，只能说“你永远无法叫醒一个装睡的人”。\n\n10年期美债收益率上周曾跃升至1.614%，本周二下跌2.6个基点报1.396%\n或许美联储已经没了选择，只能一条道走到黑。“世界美元”的印钞者永远都是这么任性。或许印着印着人类就进入按需分配的理想大同社会。我们都知道一切都是泡沫，但泡沫有什么不好？佛曰：诸般妄相，如梦幻泡影。谁能放下印钞机，立地成佛？\n中国监管层之所以有定力，还是因为率先控制住了疫情，并有幸成为疫情供给受限时期全球唯一的大型生产者。这体现在强劲的代表外循环的净出口上。既然外循环可以支持整个循环体系，代表内循环的房地产泡沫就可以认真整治一下。更重要的一点是，在美联储无底线印钞导致全球货币大洪水的危险局势下，如何修筑防洪大堤来防止国际热钱游资割韭菜薅羊毛。\n此时不要谈自由市场，不要说尊重资本的商业本性，因为当央行如此疯狂介入市场，市场就已经失灵——资源配置的价格信号紊乱，辛辛苦苦干实业不如炒房炒茅台炒比特币。\n\n比特币巨鲸灰度基金，截止今年2月持有的比特币市值超过200亿美元，且还在持续加仓\n所以此时国家金融能力尤为重要。它是指国家前瞻性的系统性风险防控能力，国家动用一国金融力量配置资源打好防风险攻坚战的能力。类似1997年大陆与香港配合的港币保卫战。\n因为疫情不止，放水不息，洪水隐患依然很大，国际游资如嗜血的怪兽，四处寻找猎物以满足收益率预期的胃口。美国财政部账上还趴着1.5万亿美元现金，接下来还有刚通过的1.9万亿美元刺激和救助计划。赤字率已经创了世界纪录，MMT不过是一层遮羞的布，一旦打开就不用再在乎什么了。\n何况，在大疫情那个危机时刻，这一切都是正义的、必须的、不可不做的。客观的说，我们必须肯定这次疫情大危机中，各国印钞者的“救世主”般的能力——本来一场世界级的大萧条、大危机，却被印钞者们奇迹般的通过印钞力挽狂澜，多少家庭和企业免于失业和破产。\n\n然而真的一直会这么神奇吗？用分配手段就能完全替代生产？救急用的抗生素可以替代正常的饮食？印钞者们其实也都很清醒，他们知道接下来的任务可能更严峻：\n如何退出？如何回归正常化？\n然而并不是所有的东西是可逆的，货币宽松是动态非对称的，通俗的说就是“覆水难收”。微观行为的基础是“棘轮效应”，即从贫到富与从富到贫，由俭入奢和由奢入俭，这两个过程是不对称的。货币宽松，资产泡沫，从央行到市场，都是会产生巨大的不可逆的路径依赖。用通俗的话来说就是：上瘾。\n从理论上来看，放水放多了，均衡定价由货币均衡取代实体均衡，即所有的资产定价模型CAPM，都应该是M—CAPM。这也是导致价值投资失败的原因。\n货币是琢磨不定的，是会随机偏离实体价值的。已经有学者将货币比做量子，资产—负债的波粒二重性。但我认为M—CAPM产生的后果，更重要的是将一切推入行为金融学、心理金融学和叙事经济学的频道。量子测不准状态，无法同时得到位置和速度。薛定谔的猫，生和死、涨和跌，取决于观测者。\n同时，央行和市场之间处于一种量子纠缠的暧昧状态。后者知道前者不敢收手，而前者知道后者知道，后者又知道前者知道后者知道......如此叠加的信念，的确是缠绵悱恻。有时看上去复杂脆弱，有时又看上去刚性无比。因此此时，不要用线性的“经典物理学”的思维去预测市场。只要市场上还有振聋发聩的声音，泡沫就会继续存在下去，只是会多一些巨幅的波动。所谓预期的自我实现，只会在拐点已过趋势已经形成的时候。\n而拐点永远只会在狂欢最高潮的时候到来。而那一刻，没有清醒者，包括你和我。\n（文章图源：百度）","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{".IXIC":0.9,"PSQ":0.9,"QID":0.9,"TQQQ":0.9,"MNQmain":0.9,"NQmain":0.9,".SPX":0.9,".DJI":0.9,"QLD":0.9,"QQQ":0.9,"SQQQ":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1151,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":364810555,"gmtCreate":1614832340077,"gmtModify":1704775787338,"author":{"id":"3576476136293909","authorId":"3576476136293909","name":"小老二","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5c4122726bb17be855a0fd1a62d04a04","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3576476136293909","idStr":"3576476136293909"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"????","listText":"????","text":"????","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/364810555","repostId":"1176697342","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1176697342","kind":"news","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"为用户提供金融资讯、行情、数据，旨在帮助投资者理解世界，做投资决策。","home_visible":1,"media_name":"老虎资讯综合","id":"102","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba"},"pubTimestamp":1614813665,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1176697342?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2021-03-04 07:21","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"Autohome-S will launch its IPO today, and the admission fee is approximately HK $25,433.74","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1176697342","media":"老虎资讯综合","summary":"3月4日，汽车之家-S发布公告，公司拟全球发售3029.12万股股份，其中香港发售股份302.92万股，国际发售股份2726.2万股；2021年3月4日至3月9日招股，预期定价日为3月9日；公开发售价","content":"<p>March 4th,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/02518\">Autohome-S</a>It was announced that the company plans to sell 30.2912 million shares globally, including 3.0292 million shares offered in Hong Kong and 27.262 million shares offered internationally; The IPO will be held from March 4 to March 9, 2021, and the expected pricing date is March 9; The public offering price will not exceed HK $251.8 per Hong Kong offer share, with 100 shares per lot and an admission fee of approximately HK $25,433.74;<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/03908\">CICC</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/GS\">Goldman Sachs</a>And Credit Suisse are joint sponsors, and it is expected that the Shares will be listed on the Main Board of the Stock Exchange on March 15, 2021.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/40ca109d42f18cb866af41b1fc43402d\" tg-width=\"908\" tg-height=\"713\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><b>Subscription ladder:</b></p><p>There are 100 shares per lot, and the admission fee is HK $25,433.74.</p><p>The threshold for Group B is 20,000 shares, and the funds required for subscription are approximately HK $5,086,747.77.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c126dc7cc1867d3adf4bf2050f5b9f68\" tg-width=\"1082\" tg-height=\"603\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>The company is China's leading online service platform for automobile consumers. According to Guishi Mobile, it ranks first among automobile service platforms in terms of daily active mobile users as of December 31, 2020. The company provides comprehensive, independent and interactive content and tools for automobile consumers and provides a full set of services for automobile manufacturers and dealers in the automobile value chain. According to iResearch, the company is the largest online automotive advertising and lead service provider. In terms of media services and lead revenue, the company's market share in China's online automotive vertical media advertising and lead market in 2019 was 29.9%.</p><p>Founded in 2008, the company started as a content-based vertical media company focusing on media services (\"1.0 Media\"). In 2016, the company launched the \"4 +1\" strategic transformation plan (\"2.0 Platform\"), and built a platform including \"car content\", \"car transaction\", \"car finance\" and \"car life\", transforming and upgrading from a content-based vertical company to a data-and technology-driven automobile platform. Since 2018, the company has focused on using labor<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/5RE.SI\">smart</a>By providing end-to-end data-driven products and solutions across the value chain, we build an integrated ecosystem (\"3.0 Intelligence\") that connects all participants in the automotive industry. Looking ahead, the Company plans to continue to leverage the Company's \"Software as a Service\" (\"SaaS\") capabilities together with the Company's core AI, big data and cloud technologies (\"4.0 ABC + SaaS\") to expand horizontally and vertically.</p><p>During the Track Record Period, the company's operating results were strong. The company's net income increased by 16.4% from RMB 7.2332 billion in 2018 to RMB 8.4208 billion in 2019, and further increased by 2.8% to RMB 8.658.6 billion in 2020. Net profit attributable to Autohome Inc. increased by 11.5% from RMB 2.871 billion in 2018 to RMB 3.2 billion in 2019, and further increased by 6.4% to RMB 3.4052 billion in 2020.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0010efe1dface7998699469348570fac\" tg-width=\"934\" tg-height=\"756\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>Based on the maximum public offering price of HK $251.8 per offer share in the Hong Kong Public Offering and International Offering, assuming that the over-allotment option is not exercised, the company estimates that the net proceeds from the company's global offering will be approximately HK $4.9438 billion. If the over-allotment option is fully exercised, it will be HK $6.0689 billion. Based on the maximum public offering price of HK $251.8 per offer share in the international offering, the sales shareholders are expected to receive proceeds of approximately HK $2,542.4 million.</p><p><b>Technology and product development of investment companies:</b>The company will continue to develop the company's technological leadership in AI, big data and cloud, as well as AR and VR related technologies to enhance user engagement, profitability and operating efficiency. Through the company's accumulated<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/603138\">Massive data</a>, the company will also continue to consolidate the company's data capabilities and provide first-class data SaaS solutions to bring more value to the automotive industry. 30% of the net proceeds (assuming the Over-allotment Option is not exercised) are intended for the above purposes.</p><p><b>Incubate new business:</b>The company will further incubate new businesses, such as automotive Internet and online automotive after-sales service, to explore more growth potential for the company's future development. The company believes that through in-depth development of products and services in the industry value chain, the company will be able to better meet the needs of users and customers and provide solid value to a wide range of industry participants. 30% of the net proceeds (assuming the Over-allotment Option is not exercised) are intended for the above purposes.</p><p><b>Improve the company's status at home and abroad and develop the automobile ecosystem:</b>Expanding its business scope to overseas markets is part of the company's long-term strategy. The company has established two subsidiaries in the United Kingdom and Germany, launched the overseas version of the platform \"YesAuto\", and plans to further expand the company's business to emerging markets such as Southeast Asia, such as Southeast Asia. Domestically, although the company has not entered into any acquisition or investment commitments or agreements at present, the company will continue to selectively look for commercial, technological or strategic alliance acquisitions or investment opportunities to form a strong global automotive ecosystem. 30% of the net proceeds (assuming the Over-allotment Option is not exercised) are intended for the above purposes.</p><p><b>General corporate use:</b>The Company uses the remaining proceeds for general corporate purposes, working capital, capital expenditures and other general and administrative matters. 10% of the net proceeds (assuming the Over-allotment Option is not exercised) are intended for the above purposes.</p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Autohome-S will launch its IPO today, and the admission fee is approximately HK $25,433.74</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; 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}\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nAutohome-S will launch its IPO today, and the admission fee is approximately HK $25,433.74\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/102\">\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">老虎资讯综合 </p>\n<p class=\"h-time smaller\">2021-03-04 07:21</p>\n</div>\n</a>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>March 4th,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/02518\">Autohome-S</a>It was announced that the company plans to sell 30.2912 million shares globally, including 3.0292 million shares offered in Hong Kong and 27.262 million shares offered internationally; The IPO will be held from March 4 to March 9, 2021, and the expected pricing date is March 9; The public offering price will not exceed HK $251.8 per Hong Kong offer share, with 100 shares per lot and an admission fee of approximately HK $25,433.74;<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/03908\">CICC</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/GS\">Goldman Sachs</a>And Credit Suisse are joint sponsors, and it is expected that the Shares will be listed on the Main Board of the Stock Exchange on March 15, 2021.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/40ca109d42f18cb866af41b1fc43402d\" tg-width=\"908\" tg-height=\"713\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><b>Subscription ladder:</b></p><p>There are 100 shares per lot, and the admission fee is HK $25,433.74.</p><p>The threshold for Group B is 20,000 shares, and the funds required for subscription are approximately HK $5,086,747.77.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c126dc7cc1867d3adf4bf2050f5b9f68\" tg-width=\"1082\" tg-height=\"603\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>The company is China's leading online service platform for automobile consumers. According to Guishi Mobile, it ranks first among automobile service platforms in terms of daily active mobile users as of December 31, 2020. The company provides comprehensive, independent and interactive content and tools for automobile consumers and provides a full set of services for automobile manufacturers and dealers in the automobile value chain. According to iResearch, the company is the largest online automotive advertising and lead service provider. In terms of media services and lead revenue, the company's market share in China's online automotive vertical media advertising and lead market in 2019 was 29.9%.</p><p>Founded in 2008, the company started as a content-based vertical media company focusing on media services (\"1.0 Media\"). In 2016, the company launched the \"4 +1\" strategic transformation plan (\"2.0 Platform\"), and built a platform including \"car content\", \"car transaction\", \"car finance\" and \"car life\", transforming and upgrading from a content-based vertical company to a data-and technology-driven automobile platform. Since 2018, the company has focused on using labor<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/5RE.SI\">smart</a>By providing end-to-end data-driven products and solutions across the value chain, we build an integrated ecosystem (\"3.0 Intelligence\") that connects all participants in the automotive industry. Looking ahead, the Company plans to continue to leverage the Company's \"Software as a Service\" (\"SaaS\") capabilities together with the Company's core AI, big data and cloud technologies (\"4.0 ABC + SaaS\") to expand horizontally and vertically.</p><p>During the Track Record Period, the company's operating results were strong. The company's net income increased by 16.4% from RMB 7.2332 billion in 2018 to RMB 8.4208 billion in 2019, and further increased by 2.8% to RMB 8.658.6 billion in 2020. Net profit attributable to Autohome Inc. increased by 11.5% from RMB 2.871 billion in 2018 to RMB 3.2 billion in 2019, and further increased by 6.4% to RMB 3.4052 billion in 2020.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0010efe1dface7998699469348570fac\" tg-width=\"934\" tg-height=\"756\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>Based on the maximum public offering price of HK $251.8 per offer share in the Hong Kong Public Offering and International Offering, assuming that the over-allotment option is not exercised, the company estimates that the net proceeds from the company's global offering will be approximately HK $4.9438 billion. If the over-allotment option is fully exercised, it will be HK $6.0689 billion. Based on the maximum public offering price of HK $251.8 per offer share in the international offering, the sales shareholders are expected to receive proceeds of approximately HK $2,542.4 million.</p><p><b>Technology and product development of investment companies:</b>The company will continue to develop the company's technological leadership in AI, big data and cloud, as well as AR and VR related technologies to enhance user engagement, profitability and operating efficiency. Through the company's accumulated<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/603138\">Massive data</a>, the company will also continue to consolidate the company's data capabilities and provide first-class data SaaS solutions to bring more value to the automotive industry. 30% of the net proceeds (assuming the Over-allotment Option is not exercised) are intended for the above purposes.</p><p><b>Incubate new business:</b>The company will further incubate new businesses, such as automotive Internet and online automotive after-sales service, to explore more growth potential for the company's future development. The company believes that through in-depth development of products and services in the industry value chain, the company will be able to better meet the needs of users and customers and provide solid value to a wide range of industry participants. 30% of the net proceeds (assuming the Over-allotment Option is not exercised) are intended for the above purposes.</p><p><b>Improve the company's status at home and abroad and develop the automobile ecosystem:</b>Expanding its business scope to overseas markets is part of the company's long-term strategy. The company has established two subsidiaries in the United Kingdom and Germany, launched the overseas version of the platform \"YesAuto\", and plans to further expand the company's business to emerging markets such as Southeast Asia, such as Southeast Asia. Domestically, although the company has not entered into any acquisition or investment commitments or agreements at present, the company will continue to selectively look for commercial, technological or strategic alliance acquisitions or investment opportunities to form a strong global automotive ecosystem. 30% of the net proceeds (assuming the Over-allotment Option is not exercised) are intended for the above purposes.</p><p><b>General corporate use:</b>The Company uses the remaining proceeds for general corporate purposes, working capital, capital expenditures and other general and administrative matters. 10% of the net proceeds (assuming the Over-allotment Option is not exercised) are intended for the above purposes.</p>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/eda9e44b6f0a36bb06bbf3d7875e7368","relate_stocks":{"02518":"汽车之家-S"},"is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1176697342","content_text":"3月4日，汽车之家-S发布公告，公司拟全球发售3029.12万股股份，其中香港发售股份302.92万股，国际发售股份2726.2万股；2021年3月4日至3月9日招股，预期定价日为3月9日；公开发售价将不超过每股香港发售股份251.8港元，每手买卖单位100股，入场费约25433.74港元；中金公司、高盛及瑞信为联席保荐人，预期股份将于2021年3月15日于联交所主板挂牌上市。申购阶梯：每手100股，入场费25433.74港元。乙组门槛为20000股，申购所需资金约5086747.77港元。公司是中国领先的汽车消费者在线服务平台，根据贵士移动的资料，按截至2020年12月31日的移动端日活跃用户计，在汽车服务平台中排名第一。公司为汽车消费者提供全面、独立及交互式的内容和工具并为汽车价值链的汽车制造商和经销商提供全套服务。根据艾瑞的资料，公司是最大的在线汽车广告及线索服务供应商，就媒体服务及线索收入而言，于2019年中国在线汽车垂直媒体广告及线索市场中公司占据的市场份额为29.9%。公司于2008年成立，最开始是一家内容型垂直媒体公司，专注于媒体服务(“1.0媒体”)。2016年，公司推出“4+1”战略转型方案(“2.0平台”)，打造了一个囊括“车内容”、“车交易”、“车金融”及“车生活”的平台，从内容型垂直公司转型和升级为数据和技术驱动的汽车平台。自2018年起，公司专注于用人工智能(“AI”)、大数据及云技术(统称“ABC”)开发全套智能产品和解决方案，透过提供跨价值链的端到端数据驱动产品和解决方案，构建一个连接汽车行业所有参与者的集成生态系统(“3.0智能”)。展望未来，公司计划继续利用公司的“软件即服务”(“SaaS”)能力连同公司的核心AI、大数据及云技术(“4.0ABC+SaaS”)同时进行横向和纵向扩张。于业绩纪录期，公司的经营业绩强劲。公司的净收入由2018年的人民币72.332亿元增长16.4%至2019年的人民币84.208亿元，并进一步增长2.8%至2020年的人民币86.586亿元。归属于AutohomeInc.的净利润由2018年的人民币28.71亿元增长11.5%至2019年的人民币32亿元，并进一步增长6.4%至2020年的人民币34.052亿元。根据香港公开发售及国际发售每股发售股份251.8港元的最高公开发售价，假设超额配股权未获行使，公司估计公司的全球发售所得款项净额将约为49.438亿港元，倘超额配股权获悉数行使，则为60.689亿港元。根据国际发售的最高公开发售价每股发售股份251.8港元，销售股东预期收取所得款项约25.424亿港元。投资公司的技术及产品开发：公司将不断发展公司于AI、大数据及云以及AR及VR相关技术的技术领先地位，以增强用户参与度、盈利能力以及经营效率。通过公司已累积的海量数据，公司亦将继续巩固公司的数据能力并提供一流的数据SaaS解决方案，以为汽车行业带来更多价值。所得款项净额的30%(假设超额配股权未获行使)拟用于上述用途。孵化新业务：公司将进一步孵化新业务，如汽车互联网及线上汽车售后服务，以发掘公司未来发展的更多增长潜力。公司认为，通过深入开发行业价值链的产品及服务，公司将能够更好地满足用户及客户需求并为广泛的行业参与者提供坚实的价值。所得款项净额的30%(假设超额配股权未获行使)拟用于上述用途。提高公司国内外的地位，发展定汽车生态系统：将业务范围扩张至海外市场是公司长期策略的一部分。公司已于英国及德国成立两间附属公司，推出了海外版平台“YesAuto”，并计划进一步将公司的业务扩张至东南亚等新兴市场，如东南亚。国内方面，尽管现时公司并无订立任何收购或投资的承诺或协议，但如公司向天天拍(天天拍车)作出的投资一般，公司将继续选择性地物色商业、技术或战略联盟的收购或投资机会，以形成一个强大的全球汽车生态系统。所得款项净额的30%(假设超额配股权未获行使)拟用于上述用途。一般企业用途：公司将余下所得款项用于一般企业用途、营运资金、资本开支及其他一般及行政事宜。所得款项净额的10%(假设超额配股权未获行使)拟用于上述用途。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"02518":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1227,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":365266380,"gmtCreate":1614747358640,"gmtModify":1704774730180,"author":{"id":"3576476136293909","authorId":"3576476136293909","name":"小老二","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5c4122726bb17be855a0fd1a62d04a04","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3576476136293909","idStr":"3576476136293909"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"。。。。。。。。","listText":"。。。。。。。。","text":"。。。。。。。。","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/365266380","repostId":"1136108852","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1136108852","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1614746900,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1136108852?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2021-03-03 12:48","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"Nikola's fraud was exposed, why did Jia Yueting and FF dare to take this path?","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1136108852","media":"腾讯新闻潜望","summary":"Nikola前执行董事长Trevor MiltonSPAC（特殊目的收购公司）作为资本市场中的一种特殊存在，由于其先上市后并入实体业务，实现后者快速上市的特点，成为传统IPO上市方式的一项补充，但近年","content":"<p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/fbad6217bfbbc9553592db451eca4fb6\" tg-width=\"700\" tg-height=\"394\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><span>Trevor Milton, former executive chairman of Nikola</span></p><p>As a special existence in the capital market, SPAC (Special Purpose Acquisition Company) has become a supplement to the traditional IPO listing method because of its characteristics of first listing and then merging into the physical business, realizing the rapid listing of the latter. However, in recent years, the U.S. stock market SPAC listed companies popular among investors have gradually moved to the other extreme.</p><p>According to statistics, most of the companies that have been rapidly listed in the U.S. capital market through SPACs in recent years are low-income or even no-income startups that have been established for a very short time. However, with the so-called industry-leading disruptive technologies and business models, As well as expectations for high growth in future performance, these companies have received valuations of hundreds of millions or even billions of dollars. Once the transaction is completed, it is not uncommon for the stock price to double after listing and the market value to rapidly grow to tens of billions of dollars</p><p>Nikola, an electric truck startup company, is a typical example of this. By merging with a SPAC, Nikola, which has no revenue and no products, quickly went public, and its market value once exceeded US $30 billion under the pursuit of funds, easily surpassing traditional companies such as General Motors and Ford. A giant in the automobile industry, but recently the company was exposed to a series of false information about business and product statements, the founder was forced to step down, and the company's stock price also fell from its highs.</p><p>The successful listing of Nikola has opened a new door for other electric vehicle startups. They can not only obtain much-needed financial support, but also achieve rapid listing without having actual products and revenue now. Such a perfect listing method, It is exactly what many electric vehicle startups that have been struggling for many years and are still in business difficulties dream of.</p><p>Starting from the second half of 2020, electric vehicle startups including Canoo, FF, Lucid, etc. have successively announced merger transactions with SPACs in an attempt to replicate Nikola's success.</p><p>Looking at the transaction information announced by these companies, it is very similar to Nikola: industry-leading \"three electricity\" technology, luxurious lineup of founders and senior management teams, extremely broad market prospects, exciting performance expectations, and Supplemented by With the endorsement of star investment institutions, perfect SPAC transactions are so freshly released.</p><p>But the time window is closing for them at an accelerated rate. Since the beginning of this year, the valuation of the entire electric vehicle industry has begun to enter a period of adjustment after experiencing a sturm and drang last year, and a series of fraud scandals related to SPAC listings such as Nikola have also made investors treat this type of company more cautious..</p><p><b>Nikola's lie was exposed: the founder ran away</b></p><p>Nikola, an electric truck startup whose market value once exceeded $30 billion, finally proved to be a lie.</p><p>Documents submitted by the company to the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission last week disclosed that Trevor Milton, the company's former executive chairman, made at least seven \"inaccurate\" statements about the company's research and development progress of electric and hydrogen-powered trucks between July 2016 and July 2020. In addition, the company itself made two inaccurate statements.</p><p>In fact, these statements were pointed out one by one by an investigation report released by a research institute called Hindenburg Research as early as last September. This self-examination document submitted to the SEC is based on the response to this investigation report.</p><p>These false statements include Milton's claim in 2016 that Nikola has built a zero-emission truck and that five trucks have rolled off the assembly line in 2020. He also emphasized twice in late 2019 and mid-2020 that the company has been able to manufacture 1,000 kilograms of hydrogen and the manufacturing cost per kilogram has dropped below $3.</p><p>After being questioned by Hindenburg Research in September last year, Milton quickly stepped down while busy denying it. Even so, he is still the largest individual shareholder of the company, holding a shareholding ratio of up to 20%. Last year, Nikola passed a \"blank check\" The company merged and went public quickly, and its market value once exceeded US $30 billion. Based on this calculation, Milton's personal wealth once exceeded US $6 billion.</p><p>Even though he has stepped down as executive chairman, the lawyer and legal fees related to Nikola and his personal investigation are still paid by the company. In 2020, Nikola's related fees reached US $24.7 million, of which US $19.5 million was incurred. In the fourth quarter of 2020, in addition, the company also retained US $8.1 million for future legal-related fees for Milton. So far, the company has paid US $15,000 in lawyer litigation fees for him personally.</p><p>The performance of Nikola, which does not have any main business income so far, is unsurprisingly a mess. Its annual revenue in 2020 is only US $95,000, and this mere US $95,000 is only the so-called solar panel installation fee. Nikola's own financial report It also stated that solar panel installation is not the company's main business. The full-year loss was as high as US $380 million, four times higher than the previous year's US $88.65 million. In the fourth quarter of 2020 alone, the loss was as high as US $147 million.</p><p><b>From overtaking GM, Ford to fake scandals</b></p><p>It is such a company with zero income, no products, and has been proved to be a lot of lies. However, it was successfully listed in the middle of last year, and it was once popular with investors in the market. The stock price doubled on the first day of listing, and its market value was once as high as 30 billion dollars, leaving traditional car manufacturers Ford and General Motors far behind.</p><p>This feat of \"turning decay into magic\" is achieved through the so-called SPAC reverse takeover model. The so-called SPAC (Special Purpose Acquisition Company) is an empty shell or \"blank check\" company that sells shares to investors and goes public in advance without any actual business, hoping to realize value appreciation and bring returns to investors through the acquisition of a private company with a physical business in the future.</p><p>Nikola found a SPAC called VectoIQ, and the two parties hit it off and successfully went public two months after the announcement of the merger intention.</p><p>However, if you look carefully at the merger plan document announced by Nikola in March last year, it is not difficult to find that the company's business itself has too many \"virtual\" things and too few \"real\" things. For example, its announced R&D center construction plan will not start until the second and fourth quarters of 2020, including the sales and rental income of electric vehicles, which are all expected income without much basis. The company plans to start producing battery electric vehicles in North America in 2021 and fuel cell electric vehicles in 2023.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2ac65f0b0f1d8a25777736ffe746c39e\" tg-width=\"936\" tg-height=\"422\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><i>(Transaction information disclosed by Nikola: the original shareholders still absolutely control)</i></p><p>According to the transaction information disclosed by Nikola at that time, VectoIQ provided the US $230 million raised during the previous listing, accounting for 5.7% of the shares. Nikola's existing shareholders accounted for 79.6% of the shares. Calculated based on US $10 per share, the combined valuation at that time The value is approximately US $4 billion.</p><p>Once the merger news was announced, VectoIQ's stock price began to skyrocket. After the merger transaction was completed, the stock price once rose to more than 65 US dollars per share, with a market value of more than 30 billion US dollars, bringing huge returns to Nikola's early investors.</p><p>However, as negative news about Nikola continues to surface, the stock price has also begun to fall all the way, especially after the release of the short-selling report, the stock price has further declined. At present, Nikola's stock price is around $18 per share.</p><p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0af463ef291100626d03ada2e7dd9004\" tg-width=\"936\" tg-height=\"630\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><span>(Nikola's stock price falls from a high level from a leading market to a lagging market)</span></p><p>Comparing Nikola's stock price performance with the market can also clearly reflect the trend of this company being favored by investors and then abandoned. Take investing $100 as an example. If you invest in Nikola, the return will be as high as $700 by June 2020. If you invest in the Nasdaq Composite Index or the Nasdaq Green Energy sector, the value will only increase by less than $200, but then continue to hold Nikola will significantly underperform the broader market and related sectors.</p><p><b>Common characteristics of SPAC targets: no revenue, short history</b></p><p>Nikola's listing is just one example of a round of rapid reverse listing boom through SPACs since 2019. Since 2019, 131 SPACs have been listed in the US stock market. Since the beginning of this year, the total amount of funds raised by SPACs has reached 38.3 billion US dollars, far exceeding the 19.8 billion US dollars raised through traditional IPOs during the same period.</p><p>It is not difficult to conclude from some past cases of successful listing through SPACs, including Nikola, that start-up companies that have been acquired by SPACs and successfully achieved rapid listing usually have the following common characteristics. First, the company has been established for a short time, usually only 3 to 5 Years of founding history, followed by extremely low or even no revenue. For example, Nikola did not generate any main revenue before its listing until its market value reached 30 billion US dollars.</p><p>According to a statistic, the median operating income of startups that complete listings through SPACs in 2020 is US $48 million. According to statistics from the \"Wall Street Journal\", companies with zero-revenue listing valuations of more than $1 billion have completed more than traditional IPOs through SPACs, and more have been announced and are not yet completed.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f2793b9a976d121de85db4d36e045259\" tg-width=\"658\" tg-height=\"944\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>At the same time, compared to low income or even zero income, it is the high valuation of the company after the SPAC merger. After complex trading operations with SPACs, the start-up companies acquired by SPACs have obtained extremely high valuations by virtue of their so-called disruptive technologies or business models and high growth expectations for future performance, which can easily cost billions or even tens of billions of dollars. U.S. dollars are not an impossible task. Taking Nikola as an example, the transaction valuation when it announced the merger with VectorIQ has reached 4 billion U.S. dollars, and its market value has soared to a staggering more than 30 billion U.S. dollars after listing.</p><p><b>SPAC deal opens a door for EV startups</b></p><p>SPAC seems to be a fast track to quickly beautify the packaging of these startups, attracting countless startups to flock to it. The successful listing of Nikola has also made other electric vehicle companies in the field of electric vehicle start-ups sense this opportunity. Especially for some companies that have been trapped in financial difficulties for many years, they have been enlightened overnight and began to study this opportunity. special way.</p><p>Among them, there are fast-moving and slow-moving. For example, Canoo, which successfully went public through SPAC in 2020, was established less than 3 years ago. Its founders Ulrich Kranz and Stefan Krause briefly served as FF, an electric vehicle startup founded by Jia Yueting. executive.</p><p>Of course, it also includes FF, the ill-fated electric vehicle startup, which now seems to have finally found a way to move forward. The company announced at the end of January that it had reached a merger agreement with a SPAC, valued at US $3.4 billion, and plans to complete the listing in the second quarter of this year.</p><p>There is another electric vehicle start-up company, Lucid. Jia Yueting used to be the largest shareholder of this company. After more than ten years of difficult development, Lucid also plans to go public through a SPAC, with a valuation of US $24 billion, setting the highest SPAC merger valuation record.</p><p>But looking at the transaction information released by these electric vehicle startups that have announced SPAC transactions, you can see how similar some key information is: almost every company claims to be industry leader in technology, and the company's founder and management team has a luxurious lineup. I am extremely optimistic about the future market prospects and my market position. Within a few years after the product is launched, the revenue can reach hundreds of millions or even billions of dollars. The profit is negative in the first one or two years, and then quickly turns positive and achieves stable profit growth.</p><p>In addition to the above common characteristics, another common point of these companies is that the company has not actually launched any products, and it is still in the stage of research and development and trial production, which means that the revenue will be zero for a long time even after listing through SPAC.</p><p>But these don't seem to be important in the eyes of the current capital market. Some investors have earned tangible profits from the rapid doubling of Nikola's stock price. Whether this company really fakes in the future and whether it will really launch products is not what these investors are concerned about. The same logic should also be applied to other electric vehicle start-ups, so it is the most important thing to get more relevant investment targets in the market as soon as possible.</p><p>The time window is closing at an accelerated pace. After entering 2021, the electric vehicle industry as a whole is facing the challenge of valuation readjustment. The stock price of leader Tesla fell by 20% in January, causing a collective sharp drop in the stock prices of other listed electric vehicle companies. fall.</p><p>The exposure of Nikola's fraud incident has caused its stock price to fall from a high level, which has made many investors in the market smell the danger and begin to be wary of SPAC electric vehicles.</p><p>Shares of SPAC Churchill Capital Corp IV, which has announced a merger with Lucid, have fallen 50% in the past 10 trading days. Canoo's stock price fell 3% on the day it completed its listing transaction at the end of last year, and now it is $14 per share, down 36% from the highest price of $22 per share set after the announcement of the SPAC transaction last year.</p><p>According to past statistics, listed companies with lower income usually perform poorly in stock prices. A study by Jay Ritter, a professor of finance at the University of Florida, found that public companies with annual revenues of less than $50 million have share price performance 28% lower than the market in the first three years after listing.</p><p>Of course, for many investors who are willing to take additional risks and are keen to gain short-term high returns from SPAC companies, it may not matter whether the company's business is authentic or not and whether it can fulfill its promise of future performance.</p>","source":"lsy1587347572404","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Nikola's fraud was exposed, why did Jia Yueting and FF dare to take this path?</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nNikola's fraud was exposed, why did Jia Yueting and FF dare to take this path?\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">腾讯新闻潜望</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-03-03 12:48</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/fbad6217bfbbc9553592db451eca4fb6\" tg-width=\"700\" tg-height=\"394\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><span>Trevor Milton, former executive chairman of Nikola</span></p><p>As a special existence in the capital market, SPAC (Special Purpose Acquisition Company) has become a supplement to the traditional IPO listing method because of its characteristics of first listing and then merging into the physical business, realizing the rapid listing of the latter. However, in recent years, the U.S. stock market SPAC listed companies popular among investors have gradually moved to the other extreme.</p><p>According to statistics, most of the companies that have been rapidly listed in the U.S. capital market through SPACs in recent years are low-income or even no-income startups that have been established for a very short time. However, with the so-called industry-leading disruptive technologies and business models, As well as expectations for high growth in future performance, these companies have received valuations of hundreds of millions or even billions of dollars. Once the transaction is completed, it is not uncommon for the stock price to double after listing and the market value to rapidly grow to tens of billions of dollars</p><p>Nikola, an electric truck startup company, is a typical example of this. By merging with a SPAC, Nikola, which has no revenue and no products, quickly went public, and its market value once exceeded US $30 billion under the pursuit of funds, easily surpassing traditional companies such as General Motors and Ford. A giant in the automobile industry, but recently the company was exposed to a series of false information about business and product statements, the founder was forced to step down, and the company's stock price also fell from its highs.</p><p>The successful listing of Nikola has opened a new door for other electric vehicle startups. They can not only obtain much-needed financial support, but also achieve rapid listing without having actual products and revenue now. Such a perfect listing method, It is exactly what many electric vehicle startups that have been struggling for many years and are still in business difficulties dream of.</p><p>Starting from the second half of 2020, electric vehicle startups including Canoo, FF, Lucid, etc. have successively announced merger transactions with SPACs in an attempt to replicate Nikola's success.</p><p>Looking at the transaction information announced by these companies, it is very similar to Nikola: industry-leading \"three electricity\" technology, luxurious lineup of founders and senior management teams, extremely broad market prospects, exciting performance expectations, and Supplemented by With the endorsement of star investment institutions, perfect SPAC transactions are so freshly released.</p><p>But the time window is closing for them at an accelerated rate. Since the beginning of this year, the valuation of the entire electric vehicle industry has begun to enter a period of adjustment after experiencing a sturm and drang last year, and a series of fraud scandals related to SPAC listings such as Nikola have also made investors treat this type of company more cautious..</p><p><b>Nikola's lie was exposed: the founder ran away</b></p><p>Nikola, an electric truck startup whose market value once exceeded $30 billion, finally proved to be a lie.</p><p>Documents submitted by the company to the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission last week disclosed that Trevor Milton, the company's former executive chairman, made at least seven \"inaccurate\" statements about the company's research and development progress of electric and hydrogen-powered trucks between July 2016 and July 2020. In addition, the company itself made two inaccurate statements.</p><p>In fact, these statements were pointed out one by one by an investigation report released by a research institute called Hindenburg Research as early as last September. This self-examination document submitted to the SEC is based on the response to this investigation report.</p><p>These false statements include Milton's claim in 2016 that Nikola has built a zero-emission truck and that five trucks have rolled off the assembly line in 2020. He also emphasized twice in late 2019 and mid-2020 that the company has been able to manufacture 1,000 kilograms of hydrogen and the manufacturing cost per kilogram has dropped below $3.</p><p>After being questioned by Hindenburg Research in September last year, Milton quickly stepped down while busy denying it. Even so, he is still the largest individual shareholder of the company, holding a shareholding ratio of up to 20%. Last year, Nikola passed a \"blank check\" The company merged and went public quickly, and its market value once exceeded US $30 billion. Based on this calculation, Milton's personal wealth once exceeded US $6 billion.</p><p>Even though he has stepped down as executive chairman, the lawyer and legal fees related to Nikola and his personal investigation are still paid by the company. In 2020, Nikola's related fees reached US $24.7 million, of which US $19.5 million was incurred. In the fourth quarter of 2020, in addition, the company also retained US $8.1 million for future legal-related fees for Milton. So far, the company has paid US $15,000 in lawyer litigation fees for him personally.</p><p>The performance of Nikola, which does not have any main business income so far, is unsurprisingly a mess. Its annual revenue in 2020 is only US $95,000, and this mere US $95,000 is only the so-called solar panel installation fee. Nikola's own financial report It also stated that solar panel installation is not the company's main business. The full-year loss was as high as US $380 million, four times higher than the previous year's US $88.65 million. In the fourth quarter of 2020 alone, the loss was as high as US $147 million.</p><p><b>From overtaking GM, Ford to fake scandals</b></p><p>It is such a company with zero income, no products, and has been proved to be a lot of lies. However, it was successfully listed in the middle of last year, and it was once popular with investors in the market. The stock price doubled on the first day of listing, and its market value was once as high as 30 billion dollars, leaving traditional car manufacturers Ford and General Motors far behind.</p><p>This feat of \"turning decay into magic\" is achieved through the so-called SPAC reverse takeover model. The so-called SPAC (Special Purpose Acquisition Company) is an empty shell or \"blank check\" company that sells shares to investors and goes public in advance without any actual business, hoping to realize value appreciation and bring returns to investors through the acquisition of a private company with a physical business in the future.</p><p>Nikola found a SPAC called VectoIQ, and the two parties hit it off and successfully went public two months after the announcement of the merger intention.</p><p>However, if you look carefully at the merger plan document announced by Nikola in March last year, it is not difficult to find that the company's business itself has too many \"virtual\" things and too few \"real\" things. For example, its announced R&D center construction plan will not start until the second and fourth quarters of 2020, including the sales and rental income of electric vehicles, which are all expected income without much basis. The company plans to start producing battery electric vehicles in North America in 2021 and fuel cell electric vehicles in 2023.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2ac65f0b0f1d8a25777736ffe746c39e\" tg-width=\"936\" tg-height=\"422\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><i>(Transaction information disclosed by Nikola: the original shareholders still absolutely control)</i></p><p>According to the transaction information disclosed by Nikola at that time, VectoIQ provided the US $230 million raised during the previous listing, accounting for 5.7% of the shares. Nikola's existing shareholders accounted for 79.6% of the shares. Calculated based on US $10 per share, the combined valuation at that time The value is approximately US $4 billion.</p><p>Once the merger news was announced, VectoIQ's stock price began to skyrocket. After the merger transaction was completed, the stock price once rose to more than 65 US dollars per share, with a market value of more than 30 billion US dollars, bringing huge returns to Nikola's early investors.</p><p>However, as negative news about Nikola continues to surface, the stock price has also begun to fall all the way, especially after the release of the short-selling report, the stock price has further declined. At present, Nikola's stock price is around $18 per share.</p><p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0af463ef291100626d03ada2e7dd9004\" tg-width=\"936\" tg-height=\"630\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><span>(Nikola's stock price falls from a high level from a leading market to a lagging market)</span></p><p>Comparing Nikola's stock price performance with the market can also clearly reflect the trend of this company being favored by investors and then abandoned. Take investing $100 as an example. If you invest in Nikola, the return will be as high as $700 by June 2020. If you invest in the Nasdaq Composite Index or the Nasdaq Green Energy sector, the value will only increase by less than $200, but then continue to hold Nikola will significantly underperform the broader market and related sectors.</p><p><b>Common characteristics of SPAC targets: no revenue, short history</b></p><p>Nikola's listing is just one example of a round of rapid reverse listing boom through SPACs since 2019. Since 2019, 131 SPACs have been listed in the US stock market. Since the beginning of this year, the total amount of funds raised by SPACs has reached 38.3 billion US dollars, far exceeding the 19.8 billion US dollars raised through traditional IPOs during the same period.</p><p>It is not difficult to conclude from some past cases of successful listing through SPACs, including Nikola, that start-up companies that have been acquired by SPACs and successfully achieved rapid listing usually have the following common characteristics. First, the company has been established for a short time, usually only 3 to 5 Years of founding history, followed by extremely low or even no revenue. For example, Nikola did not generate any main revenue before its listing until its market value reached 30 billion US dollars.</p><p>According to a statistic, the median operating income of startups that complete listings through SPACs in 2020 is US $48 million. According to statistics from the \"Wall Street Journal\", companies with zero-revenue listing valuations of more than $1 billion have completed more than traditional IPOs through SPACs, and more have been announced and are not yet completed.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f2793b9a976d121de85db4d36e045259\" tg-width=\"658\" tg-height=\"944\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>At the same time, compared to low income or even zero income, it is the high valuation of the company after the SPAC merger. After complex trading operations with SPACs, the start-up companies acquired by SPACs have obtained extremely high valuations by virtue of their so-called disruptive technologies or business models and high growth expectations for future performance, which can easily cost billions or even tens of billions of dollars. U.S. dollars are not an impossible task. Taking Nikola as an example, the transaction valuation when it announced the merger with VectorIQ has reached 4 billion U.S. dollars, and its market value has soared to a staggering more than 30 billion U.S. dollars after listing.</p><p><b>SPAC deal opens a door for EV startups</b></p><p>SPAC seems to be a fast track to quickly beautify the packaging of these startups, attracting countless startups to flock to it. The successful listing of Nikola has also made other electric vehicle companies in the field of electric vehicle start-ups sense this opportunity. Especially for some companies that have been trapped in financial difficulties for many years, they have been enlightened overnight and began to study this opportunity. special way.</p><p>Among them, there are fast-moving and slow-moving. For example, Canoo, which successfully went public through SPAC in 2020, was established less than 3 years ago. Its founders Ulrich Kranz and Stefan Krause briefly served as FF, an electric vehicle startup founded by Jia Yueting. executive.</p><p>Of course, it also includes FF, the ill-fated electric vehicle startup, which now seems to have finally found a way to move forward. The company announced at the end of January that it had reached a merger agreement with a SPAC, valued at US $3.4 billion, and plans to complete the listing in the second quarter of this year.</p><p>There is another electric vehicle start-up company, Lucid. Jia Yueting used to be the largest shareholder of this company. After more than ten years of difficult development, Lucid also plans to go public through a SPAC, with a valuation of US $24 billion, setting the highest SPAC merger valuation record.</p><p>But looking at the transaction information released by these electric vehicle startups that have announced SPAC transactions, you can see how similar some key information is: almost every company claims to be industry leader in technology, and the company's founder and management team has a luxurious lineup. I am extremely optimistic about the future market prospects and my market position. Within a few years after the product is launched, the revenue can reach hundreds of millions or even billions of dollars. The profit is negative in the first one or two years, and then quickly turns positive and achieves stable profit growth.</p><p>In addition to the above common characteristics, another common point of these companies is that the company has not actually launched any products, and it is still in the stage of research and development and trial production, which means that the revenue will be zero for a long time even after listing through SPAC.</p><p>But these don't seem to be important in the eyes of the current capital market. Some investors have earned tangible profits from the rapid doubling of Nikola's stock price. Whether this company really fakes in the future and whether it will really launch products is not what these investors are concerned about. The same logic should also be applied to other electric vehicle start-ups, so it is the most important thing to get more relevant investment targets in the market as soon as possible.</p><p>The time window is closing at an accelerated pace. After entering 2021, the electric vehicle industry as a whole is facing the challenge of valuation readjustment. The stock price of leader Tesla fell by 20% in January, causing a collective sharp drop in the stock prices of other listed electric vehicle companies. fall.</p><p>The exposure of Nikola's fraud incident has caused its stock price to fall from a high level, which has made many investors in the market smell the danger and begin to be wary of SPAC electric vehicles.</p><p>Shares of SPAC Churchill Capital Corp IV, which has announced a merger with Lucid, have fallen 50% in the past 10 trading days. Canoo's stock price fell 3% on the day it completed its listing transaction at the end of last year, and now it is $14 per share, down 36% from the highest price of $22 per share set after the announcement of the SPAC transaction last year.</p><p>According to past statistics, listed companies with lower income usually perform poorly in stock prices. A study by Jay Ritter, a professor of finance at the University of Florida, found that public companies with annual revenues of less than $50 million have share price performance 28% lower than the market in the first three years after listing.</p><p>Of course, for many investors who are willing to take additional risks and are keen to gain short-term high returns from SPAC companies, it may not matter whether the company's business is authentic or not and whether it can fulfill its promise of future performance.</p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> source：<a href=\"http://new.qq.com/omn/20210303/20210303A01USA00.html\">腾讯新闻潜望</a></p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/fbad6217bfbbc9553592db451eca4fb6","relate_stocks":{},"source_url":"http://new.qq.com/omn/20210303/20210303A01USA00.html","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1136108852","content_text":"Nikola前执行董事长Trevor MiltonSPAC（特殊目的收购公司）作为资本市场中的一种特殊存在，由于其先上市后并入实体业务，实现后者快速上市的特点，成为传统IPO上市方式的一项补充，但近年来美股市场中投资者所热捧的SPAC类上市公司，却逐渐走向另一个极端。据数据统计，近年来通过SPAC实现快速在美国资本市场上市的公司，大多数是低收入甚至无收入，且成立时间极短的初创公司，但凭借着所谓行业领先的颠覆性技术和商业模式，以及对未来业绩高成长性的预期，这些公司都获得了动辄数亿甚至数十亿美元的估值，交易一旦完成，上市后股价翻倍市值迅速增长至百亿美元的例子也屡见不鲜电动卡车初创公司Nikola就是这其中的一个典型例子，通过与一家SPAC合并，无收入无产品的Nikola迅速实现了上市，并在资金的追捧下市值一度超过300亿美元，轻松超越通用、福特等传统汽车行业巨头，但近来这家公司被爆出一系列关于业务和产品陈述的虚假信息，创始人被迫下台，公司股价也从高位滑落。Nikola的上市成功为其他电动车初创公司打开了一扇新的大门，既能获得急需的资金支持、又能实现快速上市，且不需要现在就有实际的产品和收入，这样完美的上市方式，正是许多摸爬滚打多年仍处在业务困境中的电动车初创公司梦寐以求的。从2020年下半年开始，包括Canoo、FF、Lucid等电动车初创公司纷纷先后宣布与SPAC的合并交易，企图复制Nikola的成功。翻看这些公司对外公布的交易信息，又与Nikola何其的相似：行业领先的“三电”技术、阵容豪华的创始人和高管团队、无比广阔的市场前景、令人振奋的业绩预期，再辅以明星投资机构的背书，一桩桩完美SPAC交易就这么新鲜出炉了。但时间窗口正在对他们加速关闭。今年以来，整个电动车行业的估值在经历了去年一年的狂飙突进后，开始进入调整期，而Nikola等一系列与SPAC上市相关的造假丑闻，也让投资者开始更加谨慎对待这一类公司。Nikola的谎言被戳穿：创始人出走市值曾一度超过300亿美元的电动卡车初创公司Nikola终被证实是一场谎言。上周这家公司提交给美国证券交易委员会的文件披露，该公司前执行董事长Trevor Milton在2016年7月至2020年7月之间，关于公司在电动和氢能源动力卡车的研发进展方面，至少做了7次“不准确”的陈述。除此以外，公司自身也做了两次不准确的陈述。事实上，这些陈述早在去年9月就被一家名为Hindenburg Research的研究机构所发布的一份调查报告所一一指出，这份提交给证交会的自查文件，正是基于回应这份调查报告的回应。这些虚假陈述，包括在2016年Milton称Nikola已经造出了一台零排放卡车，2020年已经有5辆卡车下线，他还在2019年末和2020年年中两次强调该公司已经能够制造1000公斤的氢气并且每公斤的制造成本已经下降到3美元以下。在去年9月被Hindenburg Research提出质疑后，Milton一边忙着否认，一边火速卸任，即便如此，他仍然是这家公司最大的个人股东，持股比例高达20%，去年Nikola通过与“空白支票”公司合并快速上市，市值一度超过300亿美元，照此计算，Milton的个人财富也一度超过60亿美元。即便已经卸任执行董事长一职，但与Nikola和他个人调查相关的律师和法务费用依然由公司所支付，在2020年，Nikola公司与之相关的费用达到2470万美元，其中1950万美元产生与2020年第四季度，此外，公司还留存了810万美元的用于未来为Milton支付的法律相关费用，至今为止，公司已经为他个人支付了1.5万美元律师诉讼费用。至今为止没有任何主营业务收入的Nikola的业绩也是不出意料的一塌糊涂，2020年全年的收入仅为9.5万美元，且这区区9.5万美元也只是所谓太阳能板安装费，Nikola公司自己在财报中也表示，太阳能板安装并非公司主要业务。全年亏损高达3.8亿美元，比前一年的8865万美元扩大了4倍。仅2020年第四季度，亏损额便高达1.47亿美元。从超越通用、福特到造假丑闻就是这样一家零收入，无产品，已经被证实为谎话连篇的公司，却已经在去年年中顺利上市了，而且一度受到市场中投资者热捧，上市首日股价便翻倍，市值一度高达300亿美元，将传统车厂福特、通用等都远远甩在身后。实现这一“化腐朽为神奇”壮举的是通过所谓SPAC反向收购的模式，所谓SPAC（特殊目的收购公司）是一种通过向投资者出售份额，提前上市的无任何实际业务的空壳或“空白支票”公司，期望未来通过并购一家有实体业务的私营公司，实现价值增值，为投资者带来回报。Nikola正是找到了一家名为VectoIQ的SPAC，双方一拍即合，在合并意向宣布两个月后便成功实现上市。但仔细翻看Nikola在去年3月份公布的合并计划文件便不难发现，这家公司业务本身“虚”的东西太多，“实”的东西太少，例如其所公布的研发中心建设计划，要到2020年第二季度和第四季度才开始，包括电动车的销售、租赁收入也全部是没有太多依据的预期收入，该公司计划从2021年开始在北美生产电池电动车，2023年开始生产燃料电池电动车，但预计2024年就能够实现32亿美元的收入，且息税摊销折旧前利润率将稳定在25%以上。（Nikola披露的交易信息：原股东仍绝对控股）根据Nikola当时所披露的交易信息显示，VectoIQ提供了此前上市时所募集的2.3亿美元，占股份比例为5.7%，Nikola现有股东占股份比例为79.6%，按照每股10美元计算，当时合并估值约为40亿美元。在合并消息一经宣布后，VectoIQ的股价便开始扶摇直上，在合并交易完成后，股价更是一度涨至每股超过65美元，市值超过300亿美元，为Nikola的早期投资者带来丰厚的回报。但随着关于Nikola的负面消息不断浮出水面，股价也开始一路走低，尤其是在做空报告发布后，股价更是进一步下滑，目前Nikola股价在每股18美元附近。（Nikola股价高位回落 从领先市场到落后市场）将Nikola的股价表现与市场相比，也能够明显反映出这家公司被投资者热捧后又遭抛弃的趋势，以投资100美元为例，如果投资于Nikola，到2020年6月回报高达700美元，如果投资于纳斯达克综合指数或纳斯达克绿色能源板块，仅增值不到200美元，但随后继续持有Nikola将会明显跑输大盘和相关板块。SPAC标的共同特征：无收入、短历史Nikola的上市仅仅是从2019年起一轮通过SPAC实现快速反向上市热潮的其中一例。自2019年以来，美股市场已经有131家SPAC实现上市。今年以来，SPAC募集资金总额已达383亿美元，远超同期通过传统IPO上市融资的198亿美元。从包括Nikola在内的过往的一些通过SPAC成功上市的案例不难总结出，被SPAC并购并顺利实现快速上市的初创公司通常具备以下共同特征，首先是公司成立时间短，通常是仅3至5年的创办历史，其次是收入极低甚至没有收入，例如Nikola剔除非主营业务的太阳能板安装费收入外，其上市前直到市值冲上300亿美元，都没有产生过任何主营收入。据一份统计数据显示，通过SPAC完成上市的初创公司2020年营业收入中位数为4800万美元。据《华尔街日报》数据统计，零收入上市估值超过10亿美元的公司，通过SPAC完成的已经超过传统IPO的数量，并且已经宣布并且尚未完成中的数量更多。同时，与低收入甚至零收入相对的，却是SPAC合并后公司的高估值。经过与SPAC的复杂交易操作后，被SPAC并购的初创公司凭借着其所谓的颠覆性技术或商业模式，对未来业绩的高成长性预期，获得极高估值，动辄数十亿美元甚至上百亿美元并不是不可能完成的任务，以Nikola为例，宣布与VectorIQ并购时的交易估值便已经达到40亿美元，上市后市值更是一路飙升至令人咋舌300亿美元以上。SPAC交易为电动车初创公司打开一扇大门SPAC仿佛成了将这些初创公司迅速美化包装的快速通道，让无数初创公司趋之若鹜。Nikola的上市成功，也令同在电动车初创领域的其他电动车公司嗅到了这一机会，尤其是对于多年来受困于资金窘境的部分公司，一夜之间醍醐灌顶，纷纷开始研究起这一特殊方式来。这其中有动作快的也有慢的，例如在2020年就通过SPAC成功实现上市的Canoo，当时成立时间不到3年，其创始人Ulrich Kranz和Stefan Krause曾短暂担任贾跃亭创办的电动车初创公司FF的高管。当然还包括FF，这家命途多舛的电动车初创公司，如今仿佛终于找到了继续前进的方向。这家公司1月底宣布已经和一家SPAC达成合并协议，估值34亿美元，计划在今年第二季度完成上市。还有另一家电动车初创公司Lucid，贾跃亭曾经是这家公司的最大股东，在经过十多年的艰难发展后，Lucid也计划通过SPAC上市，估值达到240亿美元，创下SPAC合并估值最高纪录。但翻看这些已经宣布SPAC交易的电动车初创公司公布的交易信息，你能看到一些关键信息何其相似：几乎每一家公司都宣称自己的技术业界领先，公司的创始人和管理层团队阵容豪华，对于未来市场前景和自己所处的市场地位无比乐观，产品上市后几年内收入就能够达到上亿甚至数十亿美元，盈利在最初一两年为负，随后迅速转正并实现盈利稳定增长。除了上述共同特征以外，这些公司的另一大共同点在于公司还没有任何一款产品真正上市，还处于研发和试产阶段，也就是说收入即便在通过SPAC上市后很长一段时间都将是零。但这些在当下的资本市场眼中似乎并不重要，有投资者已经从Nikola股价快速翻倍中赚到了实实在在的收益，未来这家公司是否真的造假，是否真的会推出产品，并不是这些投资者所关心的问题，同样的逻辑应该也可以应用到其他电动车初创公司身上，所以尽快让市场中多一些相关的投资标的才是最紧要的事。时间窗口正在加速关闭，进入2021年后，电动车行业整体面临着估值重新调整的挑战，领头羊特斯拉股价1月之间跌去20%，引起其他已上市电动车公司股价的集体大幅下跌。Nikola造假事件的曝光让其股价从高位跌落，已经让市场中的许多投资者嗅到了危险的气息，开始对SPAC类电动车开始警惕。已经宣布与Lucid进行合并的SPAC Churchill Capital Corp IV股价在过去10个交易日中跌去了50%。Canoo在去年底完成上市交易的当天股价便跌去3%，如今每股14美元，距离去年SPAC交易宣布后创下的每股22美元的最高价位已经下跌36%。根据过往的数据统计，收入较低的上市公司通常股价表现不佳。佛罗里达大学金融学教授Jay Ritter的一项研究发现，年收入低于5000万美元的上市公司，股价表现在上市后前三年比市场低28%。当然对于许多愿意承受额外风险，热衷于博取SPAC类公司短期高收益的投资者来说，公司业务的真实性与否和能否兑现未来业绩的承诺，可能并不重要。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"PSAC":0.9,"NKLA":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1252,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0}],"hots":[{"id":325917674,"gmtCreate":1615857183398,"gmtModify":1704787508158,"author":{"id":"3576476136293909","authorId":"3576476136293909","name":"小老二","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5c4122726bb17be855a0fd1a62d04a04","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3576476136293909","idStr":"3576476136293909"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"???????","listText":"???????","text":"???????","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/325917674","repostId":"2119694611","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1190,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9047395922,"gmtCreate":1656864138566,"gmtModify":1676535905933,"author":{"id":"3576476136293909","authorId":"3576476136293909","name":"小老二","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5c4122726bb17be855a0fd1a62d04a04","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3576476136293909","idStr":"3576476136293909"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"💪💪💪💪👍👍👍👍","listText":"💪💪💪💪👍👍👍👍","text":"💪💪💪💪👍👍👍👍","images":[{"img":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/70be192caaee98cfa49e23f9067241cc","width":"1080","height":"1695"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9047395922","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1126,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":322152424,"gmtCreate":1615786698668,"gmtModify":1704786470885,"author":{"id":"3576476136293909","authorId":"3576476136293909","name":"小老二","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5c4122726bb17be855a0fd1a62d04a04","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3576476136293909","idStr":"3576476136293909"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"????????","listText":"????????","text":"????????","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/322152424","repostId":"2119998700","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1326,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":322152199,"gmtCreate":1615786637411,"gmtModify":1704786470067,"author":{"id":"3576476136293909","authorId":"3576476136293909","name":"小老二","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5c4122726bb17be855a0fd1a62d04a04","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3576476136293909","idStr":"3576476136293909"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"✌️✌️✌️✌️✌️✌️✌️","listText":"✌️✌️✌️✌️✌️✌️✌️","text":"✌️✌️✌️✌️✌️✌️✌️","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/322152199","repostId":"2119990944","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"2119990944","kind":"news","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"为用户提供金融资讯、行情、数据，旨在帮助投资者理解世界，做投资决策。","home_visible":1,"media_name":"老虎资讯综合","id":"102","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba"},"pubTimestamp":1615785072,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/2119990944?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2021-03-15 13:11","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"The decline in the e-commerce sector of Hong Kong stocks expanded, and Ali traded 1.28 million shares in large transactions","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2119990944","media":"老虎资讯综合","summary":"云财经讯，阿里巴巴股票在香港大宗交易128万股，成交价每股221.5港元。","content":"<p>News on March 15,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/09988\">Alibaba</a>A large number of 1.28 million shares were traded in the Hong Kong market, with a transaction price of HK $221.5 per share.</p><p>At the same time, the decline in the e-commerce sector of Hong Kong stocks expanded, with Alibaba falling more than 2%.<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/09618\">JD.com</a>Fell more than 5.7%,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/03690\">Meituan</a>Fell more than 3%. It is reported that the State Administration for Market Supervision will formulate a list of responsibilities for online trading platforms this year.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d0021a08ffece3226dd59832952e8491\" tg-width=\"840\" tg-height=\"470\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>The decline in the e-commerce sector of Hong Kong stocks expanded, and Ali traded 1.28 million shares in large transactions</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nThe decline in the e-commerce sector of Hong Kong stocks expanded, and Ali traded 1.28 million shares in large transactions\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/102\">\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">老虎资讯综合 </p>\n<p class=\"h-time smaller\">2021-03-15 13:11</p>\n</div>\n</a>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>News on March 15,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/09988\">Alibaba</a>A large number of 1.28 million shares were traded in the Hong Kong market, with a transaction price of HK $221.5 per share.</p><p>At the same time, the decline in the e-commerce sector of Hong Kong stocks expanded, with Alibaba falling more than 2%.<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/09618\">JD.com</a>Fell more than 5.7%,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/03690\">Meituan</a>Fell more than 3%. It is reported that the State Administration for Market Supervision will formulate a list of responsibilities for online trading platforms this year.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d0021a08ffece3226dd59832952e8491\" tg-width=\"840\" tg-height=\"470\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ca2161e8ddb469de4171b1fb09459c6b","relate_stocks":{"03690":"美团-W","09618":"京东集团-SW","BABA":"阿里巴巴","09988":"阿里巴巴-W"},"is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2119990944","content_text":"3月15日消息，阿里巴巴在香港市场成交大宗交易128万股，成交价每股221.5港元。同时，港股电商版块跌幅扩大，阿里巴巴跌超2%，京东跌超5.7%，美团跌超3%。市场监管总局据悉今年将制订网络交易平台责任清单。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"48482":0.6,"48516":0.6,"48607":0.6,"48738":0.6,"BABA":0.6,"03690":0.9,"09988":0.9,"09618":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1253,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":320665726,"gmtCreate":1615094815065,"gmtModify":1704778635534,"author":{"id":"3576476136293909","authorId":"3576476136293909","name":"小老二","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5c4122726bb17be855a0fd1a62d04a04","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3576476136293909","idStr":"3576476136293909"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"?????","listText":"?????","text":"?????","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/320665726","repostId":"2117554496","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"2117554496","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1615074336,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/2117554496?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2021-03-07 07:45","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"Biden continues to \"print money\": stimulus plan increases GDP by 1 trillion yuan","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2117554496","media":"e公司","summary":"拜登继续疯狂“印钱”！25小时马拉松，1票决定2万亿美元，参议院通过刺激计划！共和党一致反对，拜登：这一计划让GDP增加1万亿！周末重磅！美国参议院投票通过了1.9万亿美元（约12万亿人民币）新一轮经","content":"<p>Biden continues to \"print money\" like crazy! 25-hour marathon, 1 vote decides $2 trillion, Senate passes stimulus package! Republicans unanimously oppose it, Biden: This plan will increase GDP by 1 trillion yuan!</p><p>Heavy weekend! The U.S. Senate voted to pass a new round of economic rescue plan of $1.9 trillion (about 12 trillion yuan).</p><p>Latest, U.S. President Biden said on the 6th that the Senate passed the $1.9 trillion new crown relief bill, which means that the $1,400 paid to most Americans will begin to be distributed this month, and the provisions of the bill will also speed up vaccines. production and distribution.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/15738453c9ff9c639009f97576273cc8\" tg-width=\"720\" tg-height=\"317\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>Biden also said that the economic stimulus plan could increase U.S. gross domestic product by $1 trillion.</p><p>Former President Barack Obama issued a series of tweets praising this process immediately after the bill was passed. In his tweet, he said, \"This kind of progress will only happen when we elect government leaders who are committed to improving people's lives, which also reminds us why voting is so important.</p><p>Marathon Vote! 1 vote to decide the 12 trillion stimulus plan</p><p>On Saturday, U.S. President Joe Biden's $1.9 trillion economic stimulus plan passed the Senate by a 50-49 vote.</p><p>Earlier, the Senate held a marathon amendment vote for more than 25 hours.</p><p>The stimulus plan will go to the House again, and Democrats hope to get it signed into law next week. The passage of this plan will give Biden his first victory in legislative work and lay the foundation for the massive infrastructure and manufacturing recovery bill he hopes to introduce.</p><p>Republicans unanimously oppose it</p><p>It is worth noting that previously, the U.S. House of Representatives voted to pass a new round of economic rescue plan of $1.9 trillion. This House vote is for the amendment bill.</p><p>The bill includes a $1,400 relief check per person (which needs to meet the annual individual or family income standard), a weekly unemployment benefit of $300 throughout the summer, a child allowance of up to $3,600 a year, and a $350 billion state aid subsidies, $34 billion in Affordable Care Act subsidies and $14 billion in COVID-19 vaccine subsidies.</p><p>Although the bailout bill was passed in the U.S. Senate, it was unanimously opposed by Republicans.</p><p>It is reported that when Biden introduced the bill, he planned to raise the minimum wage to $15 per hour, but Senator Elizabeth MacDonough ruled on February 25 that the plan to raise the minimum wage was not in line with The provisions of the budget coordination plan should not be included in the $1.9 trillion economic rescue plan.</p><p>U.S. Senate Majority Leader Schumer said that the House of Representatives is expected to pass an economic stimulus bill, and U.S. President Joe Biden will sign the bill before the March 14 deadline, because the extended unemployment assistance measures will expire that day.</p><p>U.S. GDP growth will explode</p><p>As the U.S. Democratic Party is about to pass a nearly $2 trillion economic stimulus bill and the vaccination program continues to advance, the U.S. economic outlook looks more optimistic than in early January.</p><p>According to the latest monthly survey of the agency, the economists surveyed expect the GDP of the United States to grow by about 4.8% year-on-year in the first quarter, twice the expectation in January. Full-year U.S. GDP growth is expected to be 5.5%, which will be the fastest growth rate since 1984 and higher than January's estimate of 4.1%.</p><p>Reports suggest congressional Democrats may consider more stimulus measures after the U.S. Senate passes a $1.9 trillion economic stimulus package, which will depend on economic and epidemic conditions in the coming months. U.S. Senate Majority Leader Schumer said that our primary goal is to help the American people. If they need more help, we will pass another bill. If this bill is enough and it brings a lot of help, then we won't pass another bill.</p><p>U.S. stocks reverse</p><p>According to data released by the U.S. Department of Labor on Friday, the U.S. added 379,000 new non-farm jobs in February, better than expected 210,000, and the unemployment rate fell to 6.2%. The January data was revised up from 49,000 new jobs to 166,000.</p><p>Among them, the leisure hotel industry rebounded the strongest, with a net increase of 355,000 jobs in February. In terms of sub-sectors, restaurants and bars created 286,000 new jobs, and the hotel industry hired 36,000 additional employees.</p><p>On Friday, when U.S. bond yields fluctuated at high levels, U.S. stocks also fluctuated violently. During the session, the Dow once fell 174 points, the Nasdaq once fell 2.67%, and the S&P 500 once fell more than 1%.</p><p>The Dow Jones Industrial Average reversed, rising to 31,580 points in late trading, rebounding 812 points from the intraday low. As of the close, the Dow rose 1.85% to 31,496 points. During the session, Federal Reserve Kashkari said that full employment has not been reached now and he is not worried about inflation.</p>","source":"LHCJ1","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Biden continues to \"print money\": stimulus plan increases GDP by 1 trillion yuan</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nBiden continues to \"print money\": stimulus plan increases GDP by 1 trillion yuan\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">e公司</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-03-07 07:45</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>Biden continues to \"print money\" like crazy! 25-hour marathon, 1 vote decides $2 trillion, Senate passes stimulus package! Republicans unanimously oppose it, Biden: This plan will increase GDP by 1 trillion yuan!</p><p>Heavy weekend! The U.S. Senate voted to pass a new round of economic rescue plan of $1.9 trillion (about 12 trillion yuan).</p><p>Latest, U.S. President Biden said on the 6th that the Senate passed the $1.9 trillion new crown relief bill, which means that the $1,400 paid to most Americans will begin to be distributed this month, and the provisions of the bill will also speed up vaccines. production and distribution.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/15738453c9ff9c639009f97576273cc8\" tg-width=\"720\" tg-height=\"317\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>Biden also said that the economic stimulus plan could increase U.S. gross domestic product by $1 trillion.</p><p>Former President Barack Obama issued a series of tweets praising this process immediately after the bill was passed. In his tweet, he said, \"This kind of progress will only happen when we elect government leaders who are committed to improving people's lives, which also reminds us why voting is so important.</p><p>Marathon Vote! 1 vote to decide the 12 trillion stimulus plan</p><p>On Saturday, U.S. President Joe Biden's $1.9 trillion economic stimulus plan passed the Senate by a 50-49 vote.</p><p>Earlier, the Senate held a marathon amendment vote for more than 25 hours.</p><p>The stimulus plan will go to the House again, and Democrats hope to get it signed into law next week. The passage of this plan will give Biden his first victory in legislative work and lay the foundation for the massive infrastructure and manufacturing recovery bill he hopes to introduce.</p><p>Republicans unanimously oppose it</p><p>It is worth noting that previously, the U.S. House of Representatives voted to pass a new round of economic rescue plan of $1.9 trillion. This House vote is for the amendment bill.</p><p>The bill includes a $1,400 relief check per person (which needs to meet the annual individual or family income standard), a weekly unemployment benefit of $300 throughout the summer, a child allowance of up to $3,600 a year, and a $350 billion state aid subsidies, $34 billion in Affordable Care Act subsidies and $14 billion in COVID-19 vaccine subsidies.</p><p>Although the bailout bill was passed in the U.S. Senate, it was unanimously opposed by Republicans.</p><p>It is reported that when Biden introduced the bill, he planned to raise the minimum wage to $15 per hour, but Senator Elizabeth MacDonough ruled on February 25 that the plan to raise the minimum wage was not in line with The provisions of the budget coordination plan should not be included in the $1.9 trillion economic rescue plan.</p><p>U.S. Senate Majority Leader Schumer said that the House of Representatives is expected to pass an economic stimulus bill, and U.S. President Joe Biden will sign the bill before the March 14 deadline, because the extended unemployment assistance measures will expire that day.</p><p>U.S. GDP growth will explode</p><p>As the U.S. Democratic Party is about to pass a nearly $2 trillion economic stimulus bill and the vaccination program continues to advance, the U.S. economic outlook looks more optimistic than in early January.</p><p>According to the latest monthly survey of the agency, the economists surveyed expect the GDP of the United States to grow by about 4.8% year-on-year in the first quarter, twice the expectation in January. Full-year U.S. GDP growth is expected to be 5.5%, which will be the fastest growth rate since 1984 and higher than January's estimate of 4.1%.</p><p>Reports suggest congressional Democrats may consider more stimulus measures after the U.S. Senate passes a $1.9 trillion economic stimulus package, which will depend on economic and epidemic conditions in the coming months. U.S. Senate Majority Leader Schumer said that our primary goal is to help the American people. If they need more help, we will pass another bill. If this bill is enough and it brings a lot of help, then we won't pass another bill.</p><p>U.S. stocks reverse</p><p>According to data released by the U.S. Department of Labor on Friday, the U.S. added 379,000 new non-farm jobs in February, better than expected 210,000, and the unemployment rate fell to 6.2%. The January data was revised up from 49,000 new jobs to 166,000.</p><p>Among them, the leisure hotel industry rebounded the strongest, with a net increase of 355,000 jobs in February. In terms of sub-sectors, restaurants and bars created 286,000 new jobs, and the hotel industry hired 36,000 additional employees.</p><p>On Friday, when U.S. bond yields fluctuated at high levels, U.S. stocks also fluctuated violently. During the session, the Dow once fell 174 points, the Nasdaq once fell 2.67%, and the S&P 500 once fell more than 1%.</p><p>The Dow Jones Industrial Average reversed, rising to 31,580 points in late trading, rebounding 812 points from the intraday low. As of the close, the Dow rose 1.85% to 31,496 points. During the session, Federal Reserve Kashkari said that full employment has not been reached now and he is not worried about inflation.</p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> source：<a href=\"https://cj.sina.cn/article/normal_detail?url=https://finance.sina.com.cn/stock/zqgd/2021-03-07/doc-ikkntiak5686640.shtml\">e公司</a></p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7ae95043f60aecab0531758d2129fd42","relate_stocks":{"DDM":"2倍做多道指ETF-ProShares","DJX":"1/100道琼斯","UDOW":"三倍做多道指30ETF-ProShares","DOG":"道指ETF-ProShares做空","DXD":"两倍做空道琼30指数ETF-ProShares","SDOW":"三倍做空道指30ETF-ProShares"},"source_url":"https://cj.sina.cn/article/normal_detail?url=https://finance.sina.com.cn/stock/zqgd/2021-03-07/doc-ikkntiak5686640.shtml","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2117554496","content_text":"拜登继续疯狂“印钱”！25小时马拉松，1票决定2万亿美元，参议院通过刺激计划！共和党一致反对，拜登：这一计划让GDP增加1万亿！周末重磅！美国参议院投票通过了1.9万亿美元（约12万亿人民币）新一轮经济救助计划。最新，美国总统拜登6日表示，参议院通过了1.9万亿美元的新冠纾困法案，这意味着向大多数美国人支付的1400美元将于本月开始发放，该法案的条款也将加快疫苗的生产和分发。拜登还表示，经济刺激计划可以使美国国内生产总值增加1万亿美元。前总统奥巴马在法案通过后随即发表系列推文赞扬这一进程。他在推文中说，“只有当我们选出致力于改善民众生活的政府领导人时，才会发生这种进步，这也提醒我们为什么投票如此重要。马拉松投票！1票决定12万亿刺激计划周六，美国总统拜登提出的1.9万亿美元经济刺激计划在参议院以50-49的票数获得通过。此前，参议院进行了长达25个多小时的马拉松式修正案投票。刺激计划将再次提交给众议院审理，民主党希望下周能使其签署成为法律。这项计划的通过将使拜登在立法工作方面获得首项胜利，并为他希望提出的大规模基础设施和制造业复苏法案奠定了基础。共和党人一致反对值得注意的是，此前，美国众议院投票通过了1.9万亿美元新一轮经济救助计划。这次众议院的投票是针对修正法案。该法案包括每人1400美元的救助支票（需要符合个人或家庭年收入标准），贯穿整个夏季的每周300美元的失业救济金，一年最高3600美元的儿童津贴，3500亿美元的国家援助补贴，340亿美元的《可负担医疗法案》补贴以及140亿美元的新冠疫苗补贴。虽然该纾困救助法案在美国参议院获通过，但遭到共和党人一致反对。据悉，拜登在提出该法案时，曾计划在其中将最低工资提升至每小时15美元，但参议院议员伊丽莎白·麦克唐纳（Elizabeth MacDonough）于2月25日裁定，提高最低工资的计划不符合预算协调方案的规定，不应将其包括在1.9万亿美元的经济救助计划之中。美国参议院多数党领袖舒默表示，预计众议院将通过经济刺激法案，美国总统拜登将在3月14日的最后期限前签署该法案，因已经延长的失业援助措施将在那天到期。美国GDP增速将爆发而随着美国民主党即将通过近2万亿美元的经济刺激法案，以及疫苗接种计划继续推进，美国经济前景比1月初看起来更加乐观。机构最新月度调查显示，受访经济学家预计美国第一季度GDP将同比增长约4.8%，是1月份预期的2倍。预计美国全年GDP增速为5.5%，这将是1984年以来的最快增速，高于1月份4.1%的预期。有报道显示，在美国参议院通过1.9万亿美元的经济刺激计划后，国会民主党人可能考虑更多的刺激措施，这将取决于未来几个月的经济和疫情状况。美国参议院多数党领袖舒默表示，我们的首要目标是帮助美国人民，如果他们需要更多的帮助，我们会通过另一项法案。如果这个法案足够，而且带来了很大的帮助，那么我们就不会再通过另一项法案了。美股大逆转据美国劳工部周五公布的数据，2月美国新增非农就业37.9万，好于预期值21万，失业率跌至6.2%，1月数据由新增就业4.9万上修为16.6万。其中，休闲酒店行业反弹最为强劲，2月净增岗位35.5万，分细分行业来看，餐厅酒吧新增就业28.6万，酒店行业增聘人手3.6万。周五，美债收益率高位震荡之际，美股波动也十分剧烈。盘中，道指一度下跌174点，纳指一度大跌2.67%，标普500一度跌超1%。而道指实现逆转，尾盘涨至31580点，与日内低点相比反弹812点。截至收盘，道指上涨1.85%，报31496点。盘中，美联储卡什卡利表示，现在没有达到充分就业，对通胀不感到担忧。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"SDOW":0.9,"UDOW":0.9,"DDM":0.9,"DXD":0.9,"DJX":0.9,"DOG":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1253,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":320086367,"gmtCreate":1614990794759,"gmtModify":1704777945404,"author":{"id":"3576476136293909","authorId":"3576476136293909","name":"小老二","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5c4122726bb17be855a0fd1a62d04a04","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3576476136293909","idStr":"3576476136293909"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"?????","listText":"?????","text":"?????","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/320086367","repostId":"2117688834","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"2117688834","kind":"news","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"创业路上关键一招。","home_visible":1,"media_name":"接招","id":"1049897162","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/27bae14b56414ca59b681e5e9b6a9596"},"pubTimestamp":1614910545,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/2117688834?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2021-03-05 10:15","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"Apple is a luck stock, not a value stock","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2117688834","media":"接招","summary":"前几天巴菲特发布了一年一度的致股东信，苹果毫无悬念地再次成为伯克希尔旗下的第一重仓股，持仓市值达到1200亿美元，而2016年的买入成本是300亿美元。5年时间获得了三倍的账面收益（减持之后）。\n在净","content":"<p>A few days ago, Buffett released his annual letter to shareholders,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AAPL\">Apple</a>Without any suspense to be again<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BRK.A\">Berkshire</a>Its largest holding stock has a market value of US $120 billion, while the purchase cost in 2016 was US $30 billion. Gained three times the book income in 5 years (after the reduction of holdings).</p><p>In 2020, when net profit has been hit hard, fortunately, there are still fruit companies to support Berkshire's appearance.</p><p>In the past ten years, for many Chinese value investors, if there are three companies that are their ideal targets, they must be Maotai,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/00700\">Tencent</a>And apples.</p><p>According to Buffett's philosophy, the so-called value stock is a company with moat attributes that is undervalued by the market. The moat is not difficult to understand, that is, it has a monopoly effect in a certain market, such as Moutai's influence in the high-end liquor market, Tencent's obvious advantages in social and gaming tracks, and Apple's appeal in the high-end mobile phone market.</p><p>One advantage of the moat is that even if the price is raised, it will not lose market share. Moutai and Apple mobile phones are obvious examples, and their prices have been rising in recent years.</p><p>The key is how to understand undervalued, or how to value undervalued stocks.</p><p>The common valuation method of value investing is discounted cash flow, which is the intrinsic value of the company by dividing the shareholder earnings by an appropriate discount rate. On the other hand, you buy long-term Treasury Bond with a huge sum of money, and the annual interest income is equivalent to the company's shareholder surplus (generally close to the net profit), and dividing the interest income by the interest rate is the real amount of this huge sum of money, that is, the intrinsic value of the company.</p><p>Therefore, this valuation method contains a variable and a constant: shareholder earnings is a variable, and the discount rate (long-term Treasury Bond interest rate) is a constant.</p><p>When Buffett was looking for undervalued stocks in his early years, he paid more attention to whether they were undervalued at that time, rather than whether they still had growth potential, commonly known as \"picking up cigarette butts.\" Such companies are generally small-cap stocks that attract little attention, and ultimately reach a reasonable valuation range through price regression rather than value growth. This stage can be called Value Investing 1.0.</p><p>Later, under the influence of Munger, he began to look for stocks that were not only undervalued, but also had huge growth potential in the future. This shift marks an important watershed in value investing: from just picking up bargains to paying more attention to future profitability. This stage can be called Value Investing 2.0.</p><p>The difference between Value Investing 1.0 and Value Investing 2.0 is that the former considers currently undervalued stocks, while the latter considers future undervalued stocks. The core lies in whether the company's profitability (shareholder earnings) continues to grow.</p><p>Therefore, the growth of shareholder earnings becomes a prediction of the company's ability to create cash flow in the future. For example, according to the growth of the company's net profit, it is predicted how much money it will earn in the next ten years. Divide it by 10 and then divide it by a discount rate. The true intrinsic value of the company.</p><p>It can be seen that the most difficult thing about value investing is to predict and estimate the company's profitability, because generally speaking, the discount rate is dead and the annual net profit is alive. The denominator is static and the numerator is dynamic.</p><p>But in the past five years, the determinant of Apple's market value has not been the numerator, but the denominator!</p><p>In fiscal year 2016, Apple's revenue was US $210 billion and its net profit was US $45 billion; In fiscal year 2020, revenue was US $270 billion and net profit was US $57 billion. The two indicators that best represent profitability, with increases of 28% and 26% respectively.</p><p>Let's take a look at Moutai, which is also the king of consumer stocks: its revenue in fiscal year 2016 was 40 billion yuan. Although the 2020 financial report has not yet come out, the revenue of 90 billion yuan should not be a big problem; The net profit in 2016 was 18 billion yuan, and last year's net profit should be around 50 billion yuan. The increases of the two indicators were 125% and 170% respectively.</p><p>From 2016 to 2020, Maotai's market value has increased 9 times; During the same period, Apple's market value more than quadrupled. However, Moutai's profitability has doubled in the past five years, while Apple's profit growth rate is only less than 30% (note: it is not an annual growth of 30%, but a total growth of 30% in five years). What does Apple rely on to support such a high market value?</p><p>The answer is that the denominator has changed. And it's a huge change. Buffett mentioned in this shareholder letter that the yield of the ten-year Treasury Bond in the United States in the past ten years was less than 1%. Last year, it was only 0.5% at its lowest, and 40 years ago, this figure was 15%. Even five years ago, the yield on the 10-year Treasury Bond in the United States was close to 2.5%.</p><p>Anyone who has been in the third grade of primary school knows that the smaller the denominator, the greater the quotient without obvious change in the numerator.</p><p>If we have to say that the stock god's purchase of Apple is a value investment, it is also a value investment 1.0, that is, buying the bottom in a timely manner according to the idea of picking up cigarette butts. But in any case, this deal doesn't belong to Value Investing 2.0. After all, in terms of revenue and profit growth rate, Apple is considered slow among technology companies.</p><p>What I really want to thank is the Federal Reserve and Trump.</p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Apple is a luck stock, not a value stock</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nApple is a luck stock, not a value stock\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/1049897162\">\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/27bae14b56414ca59b681e5e9b6a9596);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">接招 </p>\n<p class=\"h-time smaller\">2021-03-05 10:15</p>\n</div>\n</a>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>A few days ago, Buffett released his annual letter to shareholders,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AAPL\">Apple</a>Without any suspense to be again<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BRK.A\">Berkshire</a>Its largest holding stock has a market value of US $120 billion, while the purchase cost in 2016 was US $30 billion. Gained three times the book income in 5 years (after the reduction of holdings).</p><p>In 2020, when net profit has been hit hard, fortunately, there are still fruit companies to support Berkshire's appearance.</p><p>In the past ten years, for many Chinese value investors, if there are three companies that are their ideal targets, they must be Maotai,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/00700\">Tencent</a>And apples.</p><p>According to Buffett's philosophy, the so-called value stock is a company with moat attributes that is undervalued by the market. The moat is not difficult to understand, that is, it has a monopoly effect in a certain market, such as Moutai's influence in the high-end liquor market, Tencent's obvious advantages in social and gaming tracks, and Apple's appeal in the high-end mobile phone market.</p><p>One advantage of the moat is that even if the price is raised, it will not lose market share. Moutai and Apple mobile phones are obvious examples, and their prices have been rising in recent years.</p><p>The key is how to understand undervalued, or how to value undervalued stocks.</p><p>The common valuation method of value investing is discounted cash flow, which is the intrinsic value of the company by dividing the shareholder earnings by an appropriate discount rate. On the other hand, you buy long-term Treasury Bond with a huge sum of money, and the annual interest income is equivalent to the company's shareholder surplus (generally close to the net profit), and dividing the interest income by the interest rate is the real amount of this huge sum of money, that is, the intrinsic value of the company.</p><p>Therefore, this valuation method contains a variable and a constant: shareholder earnings is a variable, and the discount rate (long-term Treasury Bond interest rate) is a constant.</p><p>When Buffett was looking for undervalued stocks in his early years, he paid more attention to whether they were undervalued at that time, rather than whether they still had growth potential, commonly known as \"picking up cigarette butts.\" Such companies are generally small-cap stocks that attract little attention, and ultimately reach a reasonable valuation range through price regression rather than value growth. This stage can be called Value Investing 1.0.</p><p>Later, under the influence of Munger, he began to look for stocks that were not only undervalued, but also had huge growth potential in the future. This shift marks an important watershed in value investing: from just picking up bargains to paying more attention to future profitability. This stage can be called Value Investing 2.0.</p><p>The difference between Value Investing 1.0 and Value Investing 2.0 is that the former considers currently undervalued stocks, while the latter considers future undervalued stocks. The core lies in whether the company's profitability (shareholder earnings) continues to grow.</p><p>Therefore, the growth of shareholder earnings becomes a prediction of the company's ability to create cash flow in the future. For example, according to the growth of the company's net profit, it is predicted how much money it will earn in the next ten years. Divide it by 10 and then divide it by a discount rate. The true intrinsic value of the company.</p><p>It can be seen that the most difficult thing about value investing is to predict and estimate the company's profitability, because generally speaking, the discount rate is dead and the annual net profit is alive. The denominator is static and the numerator is dynamic.</p><p>But in the past five years, the determinant of Apple's market value has not been the numerator, but the denominator!</p><p>In fiscal year 2016, Apple's revenue was US $210 billion and its net profit was US $45 billion; In fiscal year 2020, revenue was US $270 billion and net profit was US $57 billion. The two indicators that best represent profitability, with increases of 28% and 26% respectively.</p><p>Let's take a look at Moutai, which is also the king of consumer stocks: its revenue in fiscal year 2016 was 40 billion yuan. Although the 2020 financial report has not yet come out, the revenue of 90 billion yuan should not be a big problem; The net profit in 2016 was 18 billion yuan, and last year's net profit should be around 50 billion yuan. The increases of the two indicators were 125% and 170% respectively.</p><p>From 2016 to 2020, Maotai's market value has increased 9 times; During the same period, Apple's market value more than quadrupled. However, Moutai's profitability has doubled in the past five years, while Apple's profit growth rate is only less than 30% (note: it is not an annual growth of 30%, but a total growth of 30% in five years). What does Apple rely on to support such a high market value?</p><p>The answer is that the denominator has changed. And it's a huge change. Buffett mentioned in this shareholder letter that the yield of the ten-year Treasury Bond in the United States in the past ten years was less than 1%. Last year, it was only 0.5% at its lowest, and 40 years ago, this figure was 15%. Even five years ago, the yield on the 10-year Treasury Bond in the United States was close to 2.5%.</p><p>Anyone who has been in the third grade of primary school knows that the smaller the denominator, the greater the quotient without obvious change in the numerator.</p><p>If we have to say that the stock god's purchase of Apple is a value investment, it is also a value investment 1.0, that is, buying the bottom in a timely manner according to the idea of picking up cigarette butts. But in any case, this deal doesn't belong to Value Investing 2.0. After all, in terms of revenue and profit growth rate, Apple is considered slow among technology companies.</p><p>What I really want to thank is the Federal Reserve and Trump.</p>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/052d0d3a6389985cf72883e9c3047ae4","relate_stocks":{"AAPL":"苹果"},"is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2117688834","content_text":"前几天巴菲特发布了一年一度的致股东信，苹果毫无悬念地再次成为伯克希尔旗下的第一重仓股，持仓市值达到1200亿美元，而2016年的买入成本是300亿美元。5年时间获得了三倍的账面收益（减持之后）。\n在净利润遭受重创的2020年，幸亏还有水果公司给伯克希尔撑撑门面。\n过去十年，对于很多中国价值投资者来说，如果有三家公司是他们心目中理想的标的，一定是茅台、腾讯和苹果。\n按照巴菲特的理念，所谓价值股就是一家具有护城河属性的公司被市场低估了。护城河不难理解，就是在某个市场具有垄断效应，比如茅台在高端白酒市场的影响力、腾讯在社交和游戏赛道的明显优势、苹果在高端手机市场的号召力。\n护城河的一个优势就是即使提价也不至于失去市场份额。茅台酒和苹果手机都是很明显的例子，这几年的售价一直在走高。\n关键是如何理解被低估，或者是如何给被低估的股票估值。\n价值投资的常用估值方法是现金流折现，用股东盈余除以一个合适的贴现率，就是公司的内在价值。反过来理解就是，你用一笔巨款买了长期国债，每年的利息收益就相当于是公司的股东盈余（一般接近净利润），而用利息收益除以利率，就是这笔巨款的真实数目，也就是公司的内在价值。\n所以，这套估值方法包含一个变量和一个常量：股东盈余是变量，贴现率（长期国债利率）是常量。\n巴菲特早年寻找被低估的股票时，更多的是考虑当时是否被低估，而不去关心是否还有成长性，俗称“捡烟头”。这类公司一般都是不太为人关注的小盘股，最终通过价格回归而不是价值增长达到合理估值区间。这个阶段可以称之为价值投资1.0。\n后来在芒格的影响下，开始寻找那些不仅被低估，而且未来还有巨大成长性的股票。这个转向标志着价值投资的重要分水岭：即从只是为了捡便宜转变为更加看重未来的赚钱能力。这个阶段可以称之为价值投资2.0。\n价值投资1.0与价值投资2.0不同之处在于，前者考虑的是当前被低估的股票，后者考虑的是未来被低估的股票。核心在于公司的赚钱能力（股东盈余）是不是持续增长。\n所以，股东盈余的增长就变成了对公司未来创造现金流能力的预测，比如根据公司净利润的增长情况，预测出未来十年一共能赚多少钱，除以10之后再除以一个贴现率就是公司真实的内在价值。\n可以看出，价值投资最难的是对公司赚钱能力的预测和估算，因为一般来说贴现率是死的，每年的净利润是活的。分母是静态的，分子是动态的。\n但过去五年，苹果市值的决定因素不是分子，而是分母！\n2016财年，苹果的营收是2100亿美元，净利润是450亿美元；2020财年，营收是2700亿美元，净利润是570亿美元。两个最能代表盈利能力的指标，增幅分别为28%和26%。\n再来看看同为消费股王者的茅台：2016财年营收是400亿人民币，2020年财报虽然还没出来，但900亿的营收应该问题不大；2016年净利润180亿人民币，去年的净利应该在500亿人民币左右。两个指标的增幅分别为125%和170%。\n茅台从2016年到2020年，市值增长了9倍；同一时期苹果市值增长了4倍多。但是，过去五年茅台的盈利能力翻倍了，而苹果的盈利增速只有30%以内（注意：不是每年增长30%，而是五年一共增长了30%）。苹果靠什么撑起了如此高的市值？\n答案是分母变了。而且是巨大的变化。巴菲特在这次的股东信中提到，最近十年美国十年期国债的收益率不到1%，去年最低时只有0.5%，而在40年前，这个数字是15%。即使五年前，美国十年期国债的收益率也是接近2.5%。\n读过小学三年级的人都知道，在分子无明显变化的情况下，分母越小商就越大。\n如果非要说股神对苹果的买进属于价值投资，那也是价值投资1.0，即按照捡烟头的思路适时抄底。但无论如何，这笔交易也不属于价值投资2.0。毕竟，就营收和利润增长速度来看，苹果在科技股公司中都算慢的了。\n真正要感谢的，是美联储，是特朗普。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"AAPL":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1047,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":364788990,"gmtCreate":1614874278110,"gmtModify":1704776478661,"author":{"id":"3576476136293909","authorId":"3576476136293909","name":"小老二","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5c4122726bb17be855a0fd1a62d04a04","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3576476136293909","idStr":"3576476136293909"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"。。。。。。。","listText":"。。。。。。。","text":"。。。。。。。","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/364788990","repostId":"2116384520","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"2116384520","kind":"highlight","pubTimestamp":1614834257,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/2116384520?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2021-03-04 13:04","market":"fut","language":"zh","title":"Increased production suspended? OPEC + 's silence is worrying","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2116384520","media":"金十数据","summary":"欧佩克+部长级会议将于今晚(3月4日)北京时间晚上21:00开始，届时欧佩克+将讨论是否增加产量的问题。然而，周三的初步谈判几乎没有透露它们是否会像市场预期的那样在4月份增加石油供应，这给今天的会议又","content":"<p>The OPEC + ministerial meeting will begin tonight (March 4) at 21:00 p.m. Beijing time, when OPEC + will discuss whether to increase production. However,<b>Wednesday's preliminary</b><b>Negotiate</b><b>Little is revealed whether they will be like</b><b>market</b><b>Increase oil supply in April as expected,</b>This adds some uncertainty to today's meeting,<b>It is beginning to doubt whether OPEC will increase production.</b></p><p>Saudi Arabia and Russia held bilateral talks on Wednesday to seek consensus, an OPEC representative said. Saudi Arabia urged all parties to tread cautiously, while Russia urged to increase oil production. While OPEC + is still widely expected to resume some production,<b>The preliminary ministerial meeting held on Wednesday did not give specific details.</b></p><p>The trend of oil prices in the coming months will depend on the outcome of the plenary meeting of OPEC and its allies on Thursday. If the group doesn't provide all the extra crude oil the market needs to drive the economy's recovery from the pandemic, crude oil prices are likely to continue higher.</p><p>Jinshi also mentioned earlier that the market generally expects OPEC + to increase production in April, and countries such as the United Arab Emirates also hinted at support for increasing production. At present, some institutions still insist that they will increase production.</p><p>Amrita Sen, chief oil analyst and co-founder of Energy Aspects, said,<b>OPEC + is likely to increase only a small percentage of production in April, and any production increase lower than previously expected \"should be considered as</b><b>Bullish</b><b>Signal \".</b></p><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/RY\">Royal Bank of Canada</a>Helima Croft, chief commodities strategist at RBC Capital Markets,<b>Given Russia's demand for an increase in production, it is unlikely that OPEC will maintain production at current levels in April, with the most likely outcome being an increase of 500,000-1 million barrels per day.</b></p><p>While OPEC and ministers may not be giving clear signals, recent oil price trends suggest the market needs more supply. Brent crude oil has risen 24% this year.</p><p>However, the OPEC Joint Ministerial Monitoring Committee held on Wednesday did not make recommendations on oil production, coupled with the support of several member countries to keep production unchanged in April. The views of some institutions have also become cautious. They believe that there is great uncertainty in this meeting and an agreement on increasing production may not necessarily be reached.</p><p>According to a Reuters report on Wednesday,<b>Three OPEC + sources have said that several OPEC + oil-producing countries currently support the idea of keeping April production unchanged.</b></p><p>In addition, the resurgence of geopolitical turmoil in the Middle East has also added more uncertainty to the oil market. Last week, Syria was attacked, and there was a counter-attack on Wednesday. On the 3rd local time, Assad Air Force Base in western Iraq was attacked by at least 10 rockets. U.S. troops and Iraqi armed forces are stationed in Assad Air Force Base. Earlier, the United States revisited the Kachouqi incident in 2018...</p><p>With<b>The situation in the Middle East is gradually tense, and the supply of oil is stable</b><b>Risk</b><b>Increased sex.</b>In this case, oil-producing countries such as Saudi Arabia may be more inclined to maintain the status quo.</p><p>Said Bob McNally, president of consulting firm Rapidan Energy Group and a former White House official,<b>From risk</b><b>manage</b><b>From a perspective, it seems that the trend of tightening supply should be maintained for a while longer, although this is a bit beyond market expectations.</b></p><p>Ed Morse, head of global commodity research at Citigroup, suggested,<b>Don't take OPEC's increase in production for granted. He has told</b><b>client</b><b>He will not in any way at this OPEC meeting</b><b>Investment</b><b>Crude oil, because there are so many uncertainties.</b></p>","source":"jssj","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Increased production suspended? OPEC + 's silence is worrying</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nIncreased production suspended? OPEC + 's silence is worrying\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">金十数据</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-03-04 13:04</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>The OPEC + ministerial meeting will begin tonight (March 4) at 21:00 p.m. Beijing time, when OPEC + will discuss whether to increase production. However,<b>Wednesday's preliminary</b><b>Negotiate</b><b>Little is revealed whether they will be like</b><b>market</b><b>Increase oil supply in April as expected,</b>This adds some uncertainty to today's meeting,<b>It is beginning to doubt whether OPEC will increase production.</b></p><p>Saudi Arabia and Russia held bilateral talks on Wednesday to seek consensus, an OPEC representative said. Saudi Arabia urged all parties to tread cautiously, while Russia urged to increase oil production. While OPEC + is still widely expected to resume some production,<b>The preliminary ministerial meeting held on Wednesday did not give specific details.</b></p><p>The trend of oil prices in the coming months will depend on the outcome of the plenary meeting of OPEC and its allies on Thursday. If the group doesn't provide all the extra crude oil the market needs to drive the economy's recovery from the pandemic, crude oil prices are likely to continue higher.</p><p>Jinshi also mentioned earlier that the market generally expects OPEC + to increase production in April, and countries such as the United Arab Emirates also hinted at support for increasing production. At present, some institutions still insist that they will increase production.</p><p>Amrita Sen, chief oil analyst and co-founder of Energy Aspects, said,<b>OPEC + is likely to increase only a small percentage of production in April, and any production increase lower than previously expected \"should be considered as</b><b>Bullish</b><b>Signal \".</b></p><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/RY\">Royal Bank of Canada</a>Helima Croft, chief commodities strategist at RBC Capital Markets,<b>Given Russia's demand for an increase in production, it is unlikely that OPEC will maintain production at current levels in April, with the most likely outcome being an increase of 500,000-1 million barrels per day.</b></p><p>While OPEC and ministers may not be giving clear signals, recent oil price trends suggest the market needs more supply. Brent crude oil has risen 24% this year.</p><p>However, the OPEC Joint Ministerial Monitoring Committee held on Wednesday did not make recommendations on oil production, coupled with the support of several member countries to keep production unchanged in April. The views of some institutions have also become cautious. They believe that there is great uncertainty in this meeting and an agreement on increasing production may not necessarily be reached.</p><p>According to a Reuters report on Wednesday,<b>Three OPEC + sources have said that several OPEC + oil-producing countries currently support the idea of keeping April production unchanged.</b></p><p>In addition, the resurgence of geopolitical turmoil in the Middle East has also added more uncertainty to the oil market. Last week, Syria was attacked, and there was a counter-attack on Wednesday. On the 3rd local time, Assad Air Force Base in western Iraq was attacked by at least 10 rockets. U.S. troops and Iraqi armed forces are stationed in Assad Air Force Base. Earlier, the United States revisited the Kachouqi incident in 2018...</p><p>With<b>The situation in the Middle East is gradually tense, and the supply of oil is stable</b><b>Risk</b><b>Increased sex.</b>In this case, oil-producing countries such as Saudi Arabia may be more inclined to maintain the status quo.</p><p>Said Bob McNally, president of consulting firm Rapidan Energy Group and a former White House official,<b>From risk</b><b>manage</b><b>From a perspective, it seems that the trend of tightening supply should be maintained for a while longer, although this is a bit beyond market expectations.</b></p><p>Ed Morse, head of global commodity research at Citigroup, suggested,<b>Don't take OPEC's increase in production for granted. He has told</b><b>client</b><b>He will not in any way at this OPEC meeting</b><b>Investment</b><b>Crude oil, because there are so many uncertainties.</b></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> source：<a href=\"http://global.eastmoney.com/a/202103041830203574_0.html\">金十数据</a></p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3faadc006e67e6ac130a7b171f263b4d","relate_stocks":{"DWT":"三倍做空原油ETN","DUG":"二倍做空石油与天然气ETF(ProShares)","UCO":"二倍做多彭博原油ETF","USO":"美国原油ETF","DDG":"ProShares做空石油与天然气ETF","SCO":"二倍做空彭博原油指数ETF"},"source_url":"http://global.eastmoney.com/a/202103041830203574_0.html","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2116384520","content_text":"欧佩克+部长级会议将于今晚(3月4日)北京时间晚上21:00开始，届时欧佩克+将讨论是否增加产量的问题。然而，周三的初步谈判几乎没有透露它们是否会像市场预期的那样在4月份增加石油供应，这给今天的会议又增添了一些不确定性，令人开始怀疑欧佩克是否会增产。\n一名欧佩克代表表示，沙特和俄罗斯周三举行了双边会谈，寻求共识。沙特敦促各方谨慎行事，俄罗斯则敦促提高石油产量。尽管欧佩克+仍被广泛预期将恢复部分产量，但周三举行的部长级初步会议并没有给出具体细节。\n未来几个月的油价走势将取决于周四欧佩克及其盟国的全体会议的结果。如果该组织不能提供市场所需的所有额外原油，以推动经济从疫情中复苏，原油价格可能会继续走高。\n金十此前也提到，市场普遍预期欧佩克+会在4月份增加产量，阿联酋等国也暗示支持增产。目前仍有部分机构坚持认为会增产。\nEnergy Aspects首席石油分析师兼联合创始人Amrita Sen表示，欧佩克+ 4月份可能仅将提高很小一部分产量，任何低于此前预期产量增长“都应被视为看涨信号”。\n加拿大皇家银行资本市场(RBC Capital Markets)首席大宗商品策略师赫利玛克罗夫特(Helima Croft)表示，鉴于俄罗斯要求增产，欧佩克+在4月将产量维持在目前水平的可能性很小，最有可能的结果是增产50-100万桶/日。\n虽然欧佩克和部长们可能没有给出明确的信号，但最近的油价趋势表明，市场需要更多的供应。布伦特原油今年累计上涨24%。\n不过，由于周三举行的欧佩克联合部长级监督委员会没有提出关于石油产量的建议，再加上几个成员国支持4月保持产量不变的意见。部分机构的观点也变得谨慎，他们认为，这次会议存在很大的不确定性，并不一定会就增产达成协议。\n根据路透周三的报道，已有三位欧佩克+消息人士表示，数个欧佩克+产油国目前支持维持4月产量不变的意见。\n此外，中东的地缘政治风云再起，也给油市增加了更多的不确定性。上周，叙利亚被袭，周三就出现了反袭击。当地时间3日，位于伊拉克西部的阿萨德空军基地遭到至少10枚火箭弹袭击，阿萨德空军基地内驻扎有美军和伊拉克武装部队。还有此前美国重提2018年的卡舒吉事件……\n随着中东局势逐渐紧张，石油稳定供应的风险性增加。在这种情况下，沙特等产油国可能会更加倾向于维持现状。\n咨询公司Rapidan Energy Group总裁、前白宫官员鲍勃·麦克纳利(Bob McNally)表示，从风险管理的角度来看，供应收紧的趋势似乎应该再维持一段时间，尽管这有点超出市场预期。\n花旗集团全球大宗商品研究主管Ed Morse建议，不要认为欧佩克的增产是理所当然的。他已经告诉客户，他不会在这次欧佩克会议上以任何方式投资原油，因为有太多的不确定因素。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"SCO":0.9,"DDG":0.9,"UWTIF":0.9,"UCO":0.9,"DUG":0.9,"DWT":0.9,"USO":0.9,"DWTIF":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1105,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":364819919,"gmtCreate":1614832401531,"gmtModify":1704775787823,"author":{"id":"3576476136293909","authorId":"3576476136293909","name":"小老二","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5c4122726bb17be855a0fd1a62d04a04","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3576476136293909","idStr":"3576476136293909"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"????","listText":"????","text":"????","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/364819919","repostId":"2116256529","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"2116256529","kind":"highlight","pubTimestamp":1614829296,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/2116256529?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2021-03-04 11:41","market":"hk","language":"zh","title":"Financial markets are \"hyperinflated\" and money printers have destroyed the value investing system","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2116256529","media":"西泽研究院","summary":"既然泡沫是货币宽松吹起来的，拐点还是要货币来决定","content":"<p>If hyperinflation is a crisis, the crisis has already happened. Crazy asset bubbles are essentially \"hyperinflation\" in financial markets. For some stocks, you could buy 1 share for 10 yuan in the past, but now you can only buy 0.01 shares.</p><p>Looking at the financial market from this perspective, there may be different views on the persistence of bubbles. Recently, there have been more and more short shouts and warnings in the market, but the bubble is still very tough, and the market is so magical. One thing to remember is that you have to tie the bell. Since the bubble was blown by monetary easing, the inflection point is still determined by currency.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2b25907e6354eac6e4bbcb5004f80ff2\" tg-width=\"580\" tg-height=\"312\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>For the United States, the main body of leverage this time is almost entirely the government, which means that the main body of the bubble is the base currency-which is particularly in line with the monetary conditions of hyperinflation in history, that is, the Federal Reserve directly prints money instead of commercial banks. Generate credit. Of course, the current broad money M2 in the United States has also reached a record high.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6576293af71557c0efb34ee9c17fdaf4\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"821\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>Why is the government's direct printing of money a typical feature of hyperinflation? This is because, compared with commercial banks' lending to create money according to the risk control standards of the real economy, the government's direct printing of money is often only a distribution behavior rather than a production behavior, and will not directly relate to the value creation of the real economy. Therefore, it is not so much the magical market that makes value investing fail (in the context of the 2020 bull market, Buffett's company profits fell by 48%), but it is better to say that the money printers destroyed the value investing system.</p><p>Therefore, it is not so much a crazy asset bubble as a \"hyperinflation\" in the asset market.<b>More and more institutional investors are already comparing U.S. money printing in 2020 to the Weimar Republic at the beginning of the last century</b>This idea led to the crazy looting of Bitcoin. Looking at it from another angle, it is actually the crazy depreciation of the US dollar in the digital currency market.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d27075184ee3417e7ae71ffa1dff1463\" tg-width=\"423\" tg-height=\"293\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>In addition to Bitcoin and the stock market, hyperinflation or<b>The collapse of fiat banknotes has spread to commodity markets,</b>Various raw materials such as steel, copper, PVC, and paper are skyrocketing. This is a very bad omen, which means that the hyperinflation of paper money will soon spread to the commodity market, forming a real macro event that will have a significant impact on the public.</p><p>It's just a matter of time-the transmission time lag between money and inflation.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/75cfaa56e67eddd9e5695b7444ea8637\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"598\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>Yet money printers don't seem to be awakened-except for Chinese regulators. The attitude of China's regulators is very clear. Before the bubble collapses, they should be prepared to hedge the crisis in advance. The speech of Guo Shuqing, Chairman of the China Banking and Insurance Regulatory Commission, was inspiring:</p><p>The bubble could burst at any moment.</p><p>China's central bank has also remained awake, seemingly trying to nip fires in the bud. The Federal Reserve, on the other hand, has been in a \"drunk tango\" unwilling to wake up. Even exit signals such as soaring Treasury Bond yields, they selectively ignore, and can only say \"You can never wake up a person who pretends to sleep.\"</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/279fb2ed29e72f1596cef3ca929f3bb6\" tg-width=\"924\" tg-height=\"562\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>The 10-year U.S. Treasury yield jumped to 1.614% last week and fell 2.6 basis points to 1.396% on Tuesday.</p><p>Perhaps the Fed has no choice but to go to the dark. The money printers of the \"world dollar\" are always so willful. Perhaps it is printed that human beings will enter the ideal harmonious society of distribution according to needs. We all know everything is a bubble, but what's wrong with a bubble? Buddha said: All kinds of false appearances are like dream bubbles. Who can put down the money printing machine and become a Buddha on the ground?</p><p>The reason why Chinese regulators are determined is that they took the lead in controlling the epidemic and were lucky enough to become the only large-scale producer in the world during the period when the supply of the epidemic was limited. This is reflected in strong net exports representing external circulation.<b>Since the external circulation can support the whole circulation system, the real estate bubble representing the internal circulation can be seriously rectified</b>。 More importantly, under the dangerous situation that the Federal Reserve prints money without a bottom line and leads to a global currency flood, how to build a flood control levee to prevent international hot money from cutting leeks and bonus hunter.</p><p>At this time, don't talk about the free market, don't talk about respecting the commercial nature of capital, because when the central bank intervenes in the market so frantically, the market has already failed-the price signal of resource allocation is disordered, and it is better to speculate in real estate, Maotai and Bitcoin than to work hard in industry.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/58ae7ae4a9757517357f79e8197ef4ec\" tg-width=\"1000\" tg-height=\"688\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>Bitcoin Whale Grayscale Fund, as of February this year, held Bitcoin with a market value of more than 20 billion US dollars, and continues to increase its positions</p><p>Therefore, the national financial capacity is particularly important at this time. It refers to the country's forward-looking systemic risk prevention and control ability, and the country's ability to use a country's financial strength to allocate resources to fight a tough battle against risks. Similar to the Hong Kong dollar defense war between the mainland and Hong Kong in 1997.</p><p>Because the epidemic continues, water continues to be released, and the hidden danger of floods is still very great. International hot money is like a bloodthirsty monster, looking for prey everywhere to satisfy the appetite for expected yields. The U.S. Treasury Department still has $1.5 trillion in cash on its account, followed by the just-passed $1.9 trillion stimulus and rescue plan. The deficit ratio has set a world record, and the MMT is just a cloth of shame. Once it is opened, you don't have to care about anything anymore.</p><p>What's more, at the crisis moment of the pandemic, all this is just, necessary and indispensable. Objectively speaking, we must affirm that in this epidemic crisis,<b>The \"savior\"-like ability of money printers in various countries</b>--Originally a world-class Great Depression and Great Crisis, the money printers miraculously turned the tide through money printing, and how many families and businesses were avoided unemployment and bankruptcy.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8ff8f63c8e4ea9561e0bb9330e033db7\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"685\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>But will it really always be so amazing? Can production be completely replaced by distribution? Can emergency antibiotics replace normal diet? The money printers are actually very sober, and they know that the next task may be more severe:</p><p>How to quit? How to return to normalization?</p><p>However, not everything is reversible. Monetary easing is dynamic and asymmetric, which means \"overwhelming water is hard to recover\" in layman's terms. The basis of micro-behavior is the \"ratchet effect\", that is, from poverty to wealth and from rich to poverty, from frugality to luxury and from luxury to frugality. These two processes are asymmetric. Monetary easing, asset bubbles, from the central bank to the market, will all produce huge irreversible path dependence. In layman's terms: addiction.</p><p>Theoretically, too much water is released,<b>Equilibrium pricing replaces entity equilibrium by monetary equilibrium</b>That is, all asset pricing models CAPM should be M-CAPM. This is also the reason why value investing fails.</p><p>Currency is uncertain and will randomly deviate from the physical value. Some scholars have compared money to quantum, and the wave-particle duality of assets and liabilities. But I think the consequences of M-CAPM, more importantly, push everything into the channel of behavioral finance, psychological finance and narrative economics. Quantum uncertainty state, position and velocity cannot be obtained at the same time. Schrodinger's cat, living and dying, rising and falling, depends on the observer.</p><p>At the same time, the central bank and the market are in an ambiguous state of quantum entanglement. The latter knows that the former does not dare to stop, while the former knows that the latter knows, and the latter knows that the former knows that the latter knows... Such superimposed beliefs are indeed lingering and sad. Sometimes it looks complex and fragile, and sometimes it looks extremely rigid. Therefore, at this time, don't use linear \"classical physics\" thinking to predict the market. As long as there are still inspiring voices in the market, the bubble will continue to exist.<b>It's just that there will be more huge fluctuations</b>。 The so-called self-realization of expectations will only occur when the inflection point has passed and the trend has been formed.</p><p>And the inflection point will only come at the climax of the carnival. And at that moment, there were no sober people, including you and me.</p><p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/32e8cf6911277db9d974dd064e32f537\" tg-width=\"864\" tg-height=\"534\"><span>(Article source: Baidu)</span></p>","source":"lsy1582938116590","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Financial markets are \"hyperinflated\" and money printers have destroyed the value investing system</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nFinancial markets are \"hyperinflated\" and money printers have destroyed the value investing system\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">西泽研究院</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-03-04 11:41</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>If hyperinflation is a crisis, the crisis has already happened. Crazy asset bubbles are essentially \"hyperinflation\" in financial markets. For some stocks, you could buy 1 share for 10 yuan in the past, but now you can only buy 0.01 shares.</p><p>Looking at the financial market from this perspective, there may be different views on the persistence of bubbles. Recently, there have been more and more short shouts and warnings in the market, but the bubble is still very tough, and the market is so magical. One thing to remember is that you have to tie the bell. Since the bubble was blown by monetary easing, the inflection point is still determined by currency.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2b25907e6354eac6e4bbcb5004f80ff2\" tg-width=\"580\" tg-height=\"312\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>For the United States, the main body of leverage this time is almost entirely the government, which means that the main body of the bubble is the base currency-which is particularly in line with the monetary conditions of hyperinflation in history, that is, the Federal Reserve directly prints money instead of commercial banks. Generate credit. Of course, the current broad money M2 in the United States has also reached a record high.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6576293af71557c0efb34ee9c17fdaf4\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"821\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>Why is the government's direct printing of money a typical feature of hyperinflation? This is because, compared with commercial banks' lending to create money according to the risk control standards of the real economy, the government's direct printing of money is often only a distribution behavior rather than a production behavior, and will not directly relate to the value creation of the real economy. Therefore, it is not so much the magical market that makes value investing fail (in the context of the 2020 bull market, Buffett's company profits fell by 48%), but it is better to say that the money printers destroyed the value investing system.</p><p>Therefore, it is not so much a crazy asset bubble as a \"hyperinflation\" in the asset market.<b>More and more institutional investors are already comparing U.S. money printing in 2020 to the Weimar Republic at the beginning of the last century</b>This idea led to the crazy looting of Bitcoin. Looking at it from another angle, it is actually the crazy depreciation of the US dollar in the digital currency market.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d27075184ee3417e7ae71ffa1dff1463\" tg-width=\"423\" tg-height=\"293\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>In addition to Bitcoin and the stock market, hyperinflation or<b>The collapse of fiat banknotes has spread to commodity markets,</b>Various raw materials such as steel, copper, PVC, and paper are skyrocketing. This is a very bad omen, which means that the hyperinflation of paper money will soon spread to the commodity market, forming a real macro event that will have a significant impact on the public.</p><p>It's just a matter of time-the transmission time lag between money and inflation.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/75cfaa56e67eddd9e5695b7444ea8637\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"598\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>Yet money printers don't seem to be awakened-except for Chinese regulators. The attitude of China's regulators is very clear. Before the bubble collapses, they should be prepared to hedge the crisis in advance. The speech of Guo Shuqing, Chairman of the China Banking and Insurance Regulatory Commission, was inspiring:</p><p>The bubble could burst at any moment.</p><p>China's central bank has also remained awake, seemingly trying to nip fires in the bud. The Federal Reserve, on the other hand, has been in a \"drunk tango\" unwilling to wake up. Even exit signals such as soaring Treasury Bond yields, they selectively ignore, and can only say \"You can never wake up a person who pretends to sleep.\"</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/279fb2ed29e72f1596cef3ca929f3bb6\" tg-width=\"924\" tg-height=\"562\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>The 10-year U.S. Treasury yield jumped to 1.614% last week and fell 2.6 basis points to 1.396% on Tuesday.</p><p>Perhaps the Fed has no choice but to go to the dark. The money printers of the \"world dollar\" are always so willful. Perhaps it is printed that human beings will enter the ideal harmonious society of distribution according to needs. We all know everything is a bubble, but what's wrong with a bubble? Buddha said: All kinds of false appearances are like dream bubbles. Who can put down the money printing machine and become a Buddha on the ground?</p><p>The reason why Chinese regulators are determined is that they took the lead in controlling the epidemic and were lucky enough to become the only large-scale producer in the world during the period when the supply of the epidemic was limited. This is reflected in strong net exports representing external circulation.<b>Since the external circulation can support the whole circulation system, the real estate bubble representing the internal circulation can be seriously rectified</b>。 More importantly, under the dangerous situation that the Federal Reserve prints money without a bottom line and leads to a global currency flood, how to build a flood control levee to prevent international hot money from cutting leeks and bonus hunter.</p><p>At this time, don't talk about the free market, don't talk about respecting the commercial nature of capital, because when the central bank intervenes in the market so frantically, the market has already failed-the price signal of resource allocation is disordered, and it is better to speculate in real estate, Maotai and Bitcoin than to work hard in industry.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/58ae7ae4a9757517357f79e8197ef4ec\" tg-width=\"1000\" tg-height=\"688\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>Bitcoin Whale Grayscale Fund, as of February this year, held Bitcoin with a market value of more than 20 billion US dollars, and continues to increase its positions</p><p>Therefore, the national financial capacity is particularly important at this time. It refers to the country's forward-looking systemic risk prevention and control ability, and the country's ability to use a country's financial strength to allocate resources to fight a tough battle against risks. Similar to the Hong Kong dollar defense war between the mainland and Hong Kong in 1997.</p><p>Because the epidemic continues, water continues to be released, and the hidden danger of floods is still very great. International hot money is like a bloodthirsty monster, looking for prey everywhere to satisfy the appetite for expected yields. The U.S. Treasury Department still has $1.5 trillion in cash on its account, followed by the just-passed $1.9 trillion stimulus and rescue plan. The deficit ratio has set a world record, and the MMT is just a cloth of shame. Once it is opened, you don't have to care about anything anymore.</p><p>What's more, at the crisis moment of the pandemic, all this is just, necessary and indispensable. Objectively speaking, we must affirm that in this epidemic crisis,<b>The \"savior\"-like ability of money printers in various countries</b>--Originally a world-class Great Depression and Great Crisis, the money printers miraculously turned the tide through money printing, and how many families and businesses were avoided unemployment and bankruptcy.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8ff8f63c8e4ea9561e0bb9330e033db7\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"685\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>But will it really always be so amazing? Can production be completely replaced by distribution? Can emergency antibiotics replace normal diet? The money printers are actually very sober, and they know that the next task may be more severe:</p><p>How to quit? How to return to normalization?</p><p>However, not everything is reversible. Monetary easing is dynamic and asymmetric, which means \"overwhelming water is hard to recover\" in layman's terms. The basis of micro-behavior is the \"ratchet effect\", that is, from poverty to wealth and from rich to poverty, from frugality to luxury and from luxury to frugality. These two processes are asymmetric. Monetary easing, asset bubbles, from the central bank to the market, will all produce huge irreversible path dependence. In layman's terms: addiction.</p><p>Theoretically, too much water is released,<b>Equilibrium pricing replaces entity equilibrium by monetary equilibrium</b>That is, all asset pricing models CAPM should be M-CAPM. This is also the reason why value investing fails.</p><p>Currency is uncertain and will randomly deviate from the physical value. Some scholars have compared money to quantum, and the wave-particle duality of assets and liabilities. But I think the consequences of M-CAPM, more importantly, push everything into the channel of behavioral finance, psychological finance and narrative economics. Quantum uncertainty state, position and velocity cannot be obtained at the same time. Schrodinger's cat, living and dying, rising and falling, depends on the observer.</p><p>At the same time, the central bank and the market are in an ambiguous state of quantum entanglement. The latter knows that the former does not dare to stop, while the former knows that the latter knows, and the latter knows that the former knows that the latter knows... Such superimposed beliefs are indeed lingering and sad. Sometimes it looks complex and fragile, and sometimes it looks extremely rigid. Therefore, at this time, don't use linear \"classical physics\" thinking to predict the market. As long as there are still inspiring voices in the market, the bubble will continue to exist.<b>It's just that there will be more huge fluctuations</b>。 The so-called self-realization of expectations will only occur when the inflection point has passed and the trend has been formed.</p><p>And the inflection point will only come at the climax of the carnival. And at that moment, there were no sober people, including you and me.</p><p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/32e8cf6911277db9d974dd064e32f537\" tg-width=\"864\" tg-height=\"534\"><span>(Article source: Baidu)</span></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> source：<a href=\"http://mp.weixin.qq.com/s/sUiLnAl3Lmb-qLreSsijog\">西泽研究院</a></p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3de21f83c1ccf91eaf03e7bb8a50c812","relate_stocks":{"SQQQ":"纳指三倍做空ETF","PSQ":"做空纳斯达克100指数ETF-ProShares","TQQQ":"纳指三倍做多ETF",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite",".DJI":"道琼斯","QQQ":"纳指100ETF","QLD":"2倍做多纳斯达克100指数ETF-ProShares","QID":"两倍做空纳斯达克指数ETF-ProShares"},"source_url":"http://mp.weixin.qq.com/s/sUiLnAl3Lmb-qLreSsijog","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2116256529","content_text":"如果说恶性通胀是一种危机，那么危机已经发生。疯狂的资产泡沫本质上就是金融市场上的“恶性通胀”。有的股票，过去10元能买到1股，现在只能买到0.01股。\n从这个角度看金融市场，对泡沫的持久度可能产生不一样的看法。最近市场上喊空的，提出警告的越来越多，但泡沫依旧很坚韧，市场就是这么魔性。要记住一点，解铃还须系铃人。既然泡沫是货币宽松吹起来的，拐点还是要货币来决定。\n\n对美国来说，这一次加杠杆的主体，几乎完全是政府，这就意味着催生泡沫的主体是基础货币——这特别符合历史上恶性通胀的货币条件，即美联储直接印钞而非商业银行产生信贷。当然，美国当前的广义货币M2也创历史新高。\n\n为什么政府直接印钞是恶性通胀的典型特征，这是因为与商业银行根据实体经济风控标准放贷创造货币相比，政府直接印钞往往只是一种分配行为而非生产行为，不会直接与实体经济的价值创造关联。因此，与其说是魔性的市场让价值投资失败（2020大牛市背景下，巴菲特的公司利润下降48%），不如说是印钞者们摧毁了价值投资体系。\n因此与其说是疯狂的资产泡沫，不如说是资产市场上的“恶性通胀”。已经有越来越多的机构投资者将美国2020年的印钞行为比做上世纪初的魏玛共和国，这个念头导致比特币被疯抢，换个角度看其实就是美元在数字货币市场上疯狂的贬值。\n\n除了比特币和股市外，恶性通胀或者说法定纸币的崩溃已经蔓延到了大宗商品市场，钢、铜、PVC、纸等各种原材料都在暴涨。这是一个很不好的兆头，这意味着纸币恶性通胀很快就蔓延到商品市场，形成真正的对社会大众产生重大影响的宏观事件。\n一切不过是时间问题——货币到通胀之间的传导时滞。\n\n然而印钞者们似乎还不觉醒——除了中国的监管者。中国监管层的态度非常明确，在泡沫崩溃以前，提前做好对冲危机的准备。银保监会主席郭树清的讲话振聋发聩：\n泡沫随时都可能破灭。\n中国的央行也一直保持清醒，似乎想把火灾防患于未然。而美联储则一直在“酒醉的探戈里”不愿醒来。就连国债收益率飙升这样的退场信号，他们都选择性忽视，只能说“你永远无法叫醒一个装睡的人”。\n\n10年期美债收益率上周曾跃升至1.614%，本周二下跌2.6个基点报1.396%\n或许美联储已经没了选择，只能一条道走到黑。“世界美元”的印钞者永远都是这么任性。或许印着印着人类就进入按需分配的理想大同社会。我们都知道一切都是泡沫，但泡沫有什么不好？佛曰：诸般妄相，如梦幻泡影。谁能放下印钞机，立地成佛？\n中国监管层之所以有定力，还是因为率先控制住了疫情，并有幸成为疫情供给受限时期全球唯一的大型生产者。这体现在强劲的代表外循环的净出口上。既然外循环可以支持整个循环体系，代表内循环的房地产泡沫就可以认真整治一下。更重要的一点是，在美联储无底线印钞导致全球货币大洪水的危险局势下，如何修筑防洪大堤来防止国际热钱游资割韭菜薅羊毛。\n此时不要谈自由市场，不要说尊重资本的商业本性，因为当央行如此疯狂介入市场，市场就已经失灵——资源配置的价格信号紊乱，辛辛苦苦干实业不如炒房炒茅台炒比特币。\n\n比特币巨鲸灰度基金，截止今年2月持有的比特币市值超过200亿美元，且还在持续加仓\n所以此时国家金融能力尤为重要。它是指国家前瞻性的系统性风险防控能力，国家动用一国金融力量配置资源打好防风险攻坚战的能力。类似1997年大陆与香港配合的港币保卫战。\n因为疫情不止，放水不息，洪水隐患依然很大，国际游资如嗜血的怪兽，四处寻找猎物以满足收益率预期的胃口。美国财政部账上还趴着1.5万亿美元现金，接下来还有刚通过的1.9万亿美元刺激和救助计划。赤字率已经创了世界纪录，MMT不过是一层遮羞的布，一旦打开就不用再在乎什么了。\n何况，在大疫情那个危机时刻，这一切都是正义的、必须的、不可不做的。客观的说，我们必须肯定这次疫情大危机中，各国印钞者的“救世主”般的能力——本来一场世界级的大萧条、大危机，却被印钞者们奇迹般的通过印钞力挽狂澜，多少家庭和企业免于失业和破产。\n\n然而真的一直会这么神奇吗？用分配手段就能完全替代生产？救急用的抗生素可以替代正常的饮食？印钞者们其实也都很清醒，他们知道接下来的任务可能更严峻：\n如何退出？如何回归正常化？\n然而并不是所有的东西是可逆的，货币宽松是动态非对称的，通俗的说就是“覆水难收”。微观行为的基础是“棘轮效应”，即从贫到富与从富到贫，由俭入奢和由奢入俭，这两个过程是不对称的。货币宽松，资产泡沫，从央行到市场，都是会产生巨大的不可逆的路径依赖。用通俗的话来说就是：上瘾。\n从理论上来看，放水放多了，均衡定价由货币均衡取代实体均衡，即所有的资产定价模型CAPM，都应该是M—CAPM。这也是导致价值投资失败的原因。\n货币是琢磨不定的，是会随机偏离实体价值的。已经有学者将货币比做量子，资产—负债的波粒二重性。但我认为M—CAPM产生的后果，更重要的是将一切推入行为金融学、心理金融学和叙事经济学的频道。量子测不准状态，无法同时得到位置和速度。薛定谔的猫，生和死、涨和跌，取决于观测者。\n同时，央行和市场之间处于一种量子纠缠的暧昧状态。后者知道前者不敢收手，而前者知道后者知道，后者又知道前者知道后者知道......如此叠加的信念，的确是缠绵悱恻。有时看上去复杂脆弱，有时又看上去刚性无比。因此此时，不要用线性的“经典物理学”的思维去预测市场。只要市场上还有振聋发聩的声音，泡沫就会继续存在下去，只是会多一些巨幅的波动。所谓预期的自我实现，只会在拐点已过趋势已经形成的时候。\n而拐点永远只会在狂欢最高潮的时候到来。而那一刻，没有清醒者，包括你和我。\n（文章图源：百度）","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{".IXIC":0.9,"PSQ":0.9,"QID":0.9,"TQQQ":0.9,"MNQmain":0.9,"NQmain":0.9,".SPX":0.9,".DJI":0.9,"QLD":0.9,"QQQ":0.9,"SQQQ":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1151,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":364810555,"gmtCreate":1614832340077,"gmtModify":1704775787338,"author":{"id":"3576476136293909","authorId":"3576476136293909","name":"小老二","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5c4122726bb17be855a0fd1a62d04a04","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3576476136293909","idStr":"3576476136293909"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"????","listText":"????","text":"????","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/364810555","repostId":"1176697342","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1176697342","kind":"news","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"为用户提供金融资讯、行情、数据，旨在帮助投资者理解世界，做投资决策。","home_visible":1,"media_name":"老虎资讯综合","id":"102","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba"},"pubTimestamp":1614813665,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1176697342?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2021-03-04 07:21","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"Autohome-S will launch its IPO today, and the admission fee is approximately HK $25,433.74","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1176697342","media":"老虎资讯综合","summary":"3月4日，汽车之家-S发布公告，公司拟全球发售3029.12万股股份，其中香港发售股份302.92万股，国际发售股份2726.2万股；2021年3月4日至3月9日招股，预期定价日为3月9日；公开发售价","content":"<p>March 4th,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/02518\">Autohome-S</a>It was announced that the company plans to sell 30.2912 million shares globally, including 3.0292 million shares offered in Hong Kong and 27.262 million shares offered internationally; The IPO will be held from March 4 to March 9, 2021, and the expected pricing date is March 9; The public offering price will not exceed HK $251.8 per Hong Kong offer share, with 100 shares per lot and an admission fee of approximately HK $25,433.74;<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/03908\">CICC</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/GS\">Goldman Sachs</a>And Credit Suisse are joint sponsors, and it is expected that the Shares will be listed on the Main Board of the Stock Exchange on March 15, 2021.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/40ca109d42f18cb866af41b1fc43402d\" tg-width=\"908\" tg-height=\"713\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><b>Subscription ladder:</b></p><p>There are 100 shares per lot, and the admission fee is HK $25,433.74.</p><p>The threshold for Group B is 20,000 shares, and the funds required for subscription are approximately HK $5,086,747.77.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c126dc7cc1867d3adf4bf2050f5b9f68\" tg-width=\"1082\" tg-height=\"603\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>The company is China's leading online service platform for automobile consumers. According to Guishi Mobile, it ranks first among automobile service platforms in terms of daily active mobile users as of December 31, 2020. The company provides comprehensive, independent and interactive content and tools for automobile consumers and provides a full set of services for automobile manufacturers and dealers in the automobile value chain. According to iResearch, the company is the largest online automotive advertising and lead service provider. In terms of media services and lead revenue, the company's market share in China's online automotive vertical media advertising and lead market in 2019 was 29.9%.</p><p>Founded in 2008, the company started as a content-based vertical media company focusing on media services (\"1.0 Media\"). In 2016, the company launched the \"4 +1\" strategic transformation plan (\"2.0 Platform\"), and built a platform including \"car content\", \"car transaction\", \"car finance\" and \"car life\", transforming and upgrading from a content-based vertical company to a data-and technology-driven automobile platform. Since 2018, the company has focused on using labor<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/5RE.SI\">smart</a>By providing end-to-end data-driven products and solutions across the value chain, we build an integrated ecosystem (\"3.0 Intelligence\") that connects all participants in the automotive industry. Looking ahead, the Company plans to continue to leverage the Company's \"Software as a Service\" (\"SaaS\") capabilities together with the Company's core AI, big data and cloud technologies (\"4.0 ABC + SaaS\") to expand horizontally and vertically.</p><p>During the Track Record Period, the company's operating results were strong. The company's net income increased by 16.4% from RMB 7.2332 billion in 2018 to RMB 8.4208 billion in 2019, and further increased by 2.8% to RMB 8.658.6 billion in 2020. Net profit attributable to Autohome Inc. increased by 11.5% from RMB 2.871 billion in 2018 to RMB 3.2 billion in 2019, and further increased by 6.4% to RMB 3.4052 billion in 2020.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0010efe1dface7998699469348570fac\" tg-width=\"934\" tg-height=\"756\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>Based on the maximum public offering price of HK $251.8 per offer share in the Hong Kong Public Offering and International Offering, assuming that the over-allotment option is not exercised, the company estimates that the net proceeds from the company's global offering will be approximately HK $4.9438 billion. If the over-allotment option is fully exercised, it will be HK $6.0689 billion. Based on the maximum public offering price of HK $251.8 per offer share in the international offering, the sales shareholders are expected to receive proceeds of approximately HK $2,542.4 million.</p><p><b>Technology and product development of investment companies:</b>The company will continue to develop the company's technological leadership in AI, big data and cloud, as well as AR and VR related technologies to enhance user engagement, profitability and operating efficiency. Through the company's accumulated<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/603138\">Massive data</a>, the company will also continue to consolidate the company's data capabilities and provide first-class data SaaS solutions to bring more value to the automotive industry. 30% of the net proceeds (assuming the Over-allotment Option is not exercised) are intended for the above purposes.</p><p><b>Incubate new business:</b>The company will further incubate new businesses, such as automotive Internet and online automotive after-sales service, to explore more growth potential for the company's future development. The company believes that through in-depth development of products and services in the industry value chain, the company will be able to better meet the needs of users and customers and provide solid value to a wide range of industry participants. 30% of the net proceeds (assuming the Over-allotment Option is not exercised) are intended for the above purposes.</p><p><b>Improve the company's status at home and abroad and develop the automobile ecosystem:</b>Expanding its business scope to overseas markets is part of the company's long-term strategy. The company has established two subsidiaries in the United Kingdom and Germany, launched the overseas version of the platform \"YesAuto\", and plans to further expand the company's business to emerging markets such as Southeast Asia, such as Southeast Asia. Domestically, although the company has not entered into any acquisition or investment commitments or agreements at present, the company will continue to selectively look for commercial, technological or strategic alliance acquisitions or investment opportunities to form a strong global automotive ecosystem. 30% of the net proceeds (assuming the Over-allotment Option is not exercised) are intended for the above purposes.</p><p><b>General corporate use:</b>The Company uses the remaining proceeds for general corporate purposes, working capital, capital expenditures and other general and administrative matters. 10% of the net proceeds (assuming the Over-allotment Option is not exercised) are intended for the above purposes.</p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Autohome-S will launch its IPO today, and the admission fee is approximately HK $25,433.74</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; 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}\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nAutohome-S will launch its IPO today, and the admission fee is approximately HK $25,433.74\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/102\">\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">老虎资讯综合 </p>\n<p class=\"h-time smaller\">2021-03-04 07:21</p>\n</div>\n</a>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>March 4th,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/02518\">Autohome-S</a>It was announced that the company plans to sell 30.2912 million shares globally, including 3.0292 million shares offered in Hong Kong and 27.262 million shares offered internationally; The IPO will be held from March 4 to March 9, 2021, and the expected pricing date is March 9; The public offering price will not exceed HK $251.8 per Hong Kong offer share, with 100 shares per lot and an admission fee of approximately HK $25,433.74;<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/03908\">CICC</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/GS\">Goldman Sachs</a>And Credit Suisse are joint sponsors, and it is expected that the Shares will be listed on the Main Board of the Stock Exchange on March 15, 2021.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/40ca109d42f18cb866af41b1fc43402d\" tg-width=\"908\" tg-height=\"713\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><b>Subscription ladder:</b></p><p>There are 100 shares per lot, and the admission fee is HK $25,433.74.</p><p>The threshold for Group B is 20,000 shares, and the funds required for subscription are approximately HK $5,086,747.77.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c126dc7cc1867d3adf4bf2050f5b9f68\" tg-width=\"1082\" tg-height=\"603\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>The company is China's leading online service platform for automobile consumers. According to Guishi Mobile, it ranks first among automobile service platforms in terms of daily active mobile users as of December 31, 2020. The company provides comprehensive, independent and interactive content and tools for automobile consumers and provides a full set of services for automobile manufacturers and dealers in the automobile value chain. According to iResearch, the company is the largest online automotive advertising and lead service provider. In terms of media services and lead revenue, the company's market share in China's online automotive vertical media advertising and lead market in 2019 was 29.9%.</p><p>Founded in 2008, the company started as a content-based vertical media company focusing on media services (\"1.0 Media\"). In 2016, the company launched the \"4 +1\" strategic transformation plan (\"2.0 Platform\"), and built a platform including \"car content\", \"car transaction\", \"car finance\" and \"car life\", transforming and upgrading from a content-based vertical company to a data-and technology-driven automobile platform. Since 2018, the company has focused on using labor<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/5RE.SI\">smart</a>By providing end-to-end data-driven products and solutions across the value chain, we build an integrated ecosystem (\"3.0 Intelligence\") that connects all participants in the automotive industry. Looking ahead, the Company plans to continue to leverage the Company's \"Software as a Service\" (\"SaaS\") capabilities together with the Company's core AI, big data and cloud technologies (\"4.0 ABC + SaaS\") to expand horizontally and vertically.</p><p>During the Track Record Period, the company's operating results were strong. The company's net income increased by 16.4% from RMB 7.2332 billion in 2018 to RMB 8.4208 billion in 2019, and further increased by 2.8% to RMB 8.658.6 billion in 2020. Net profit attributable to Autohome Inc. increased by 11.5% from RMB 2.871 billion in 2018 to RMB 3.2 billion in 2019, and further increased by 6.4% to RMB 3.4052 billion in 2020.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0010efe1dface7998699469348570fac\" tg-width=\"934\" tg-height=\"756\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>Based on the maximum public offering price of HK $251.8 per offer share in the Hong Kong Public Offering and International Offering, assuming that the over-allotment option is not exercised, the company estimates that the net proceeds from the company's global offering will be approximately HK $4.9438 billion. If the over-allotment option is fully exercised, it will be HK $6.0689 billion. Based on the maximum public offering price of HK $251.8 per offer share in the international offering, the sales shareholders are expected to receive proceeds of approximately HK $2,542.4 million.</p><p><b>Technology and product development of investment companies:</b>The company will continue to develop the company's technological leadership in AI, big data and cloud, as well as AR and VR related technologies to enhance user engagement, profitability and operating efficiency. Through the company's accumulated<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/603138\">Massive data</a>, the company will also continue to consolidate the company's data capabilities and provide first-class data SaaS solutions to bring more value to the automotive industry. 30% of the net proceeds (assuming the Over-allotment Option is not exercised) are intended for the above purposes.</p><p><b>Incubate new business:</b>The company will further incubate new businesses, such as automotive Internet and online automotive after-sales service, to explore more growth potential for the company's future development. The company believes that through in-depth development of products and services in the industry value chain, the company will be able to better meet the needs of users and customers and provide solid value to a wide range of industry participants. 30% of the net proceeds (assuming the Over-allotment Option is not exercised) are intended for the above purposes.</p><p><b>Improve the company's status at home and abroad and develop the automobile ecosystem:</b>Expanding its business scope to overseas markets is part of the company's long-term strategy. The company has established two subsidiaries in the United Kingdom and Germany, launched the overseas version of the platform \"YesAuto\", and plans to further expand the company's business to emerging markets such as Southeast Asia, such as Southeast Asia. Domestically, although the company has not entered into any acquisition or investment commitments or agreements at present, the company will continue to selectively look for commercial, technological or strategic alliance acquisitions or investment opportunities to form a strong global automotive ecosystem. 30% of the net proceeds (assuming the Over-allotment Option is not exercised) are intended for the above purposes.</p><p><b>General corporate use:</b>The Company uses the remaining proceeds for general corporate purposes, working capital, capital expenditures and other general and administrative matters. 10% of the net proceeds (assuming the Over-allotment Option is not exercised) are intended for the above purposes.</p>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/eda9e44b6f0a36bb06bbf3d7875e7368","relate_stocks":{"02518":"汽车之家-S"},"is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1176697342","content_text":"3月4日，汽车之家-S发布公告，公司拟全球发售3029.12万股股份，其中香港发售股份302.92万股，国际发售股份2726.2万股；2021年3月4日至3月9日招股，预期定价日为3月9日；公开发售价将不超过每股香港发售股份251.8港元，每手买卖单位100股，入场费约25433.74港元；中金公司、高盛及瑞信为联席保荐人，预期股份将于2021年3月15日于联交所主板挂牌上市。申购阶梯：每手100股，入场费25433.74港元。乙组门槛为20000股，申购所需资金约5086747.77港元。公司是中国领先的汽车消费者在线服务平台，根据贵士移动的资料，按截至2020年12月31日的移动端日活跃用户计，在汽车服务平台中排名第一。公司为汽车消费者提供全面、独立及交互式的内容和工具并为汽车价值链的汽车制造商和经销商提供全套服务。根据艾瑞的资料，公司是最大的在线汽车广告及线索服务供应商，就媒体服务及线索收入而言，于2019年中国在线汽车垂直媒体广告及线索市场中公司占据的市场份额为29.9%。公司于2008年成立，最开始是一家内容型垂直媒体公司，专注于媒体服务(“1.0媒体”)。2016年，公司推出“4+1”战略转型方案(“2.0平台”)，打造了一个囊括“车内容”、“车交易”、“车金融”及“车生活”的平台，从内容型垂直公司转型和升级为数据和技术驱动的汽车平台。自2018年起，公司专注于用人工智能(“AI”)、大数据及云技术(统称“ABC”)开发全套智能产品和解决方案，透过提供跨价值链的端到端数据驱动产品和解决方案，构建一个连接汽车行业所有参与者的集成生态系统(“3.0智能”)。展望未来，公司计划继续利用公司的“软件即服务”(“SaaS”)能力连同公司的核心AI、大数据及云技术(“4.0ABC+SaaS”)同时进行横向和纵向扩张。于业绩纪录期，公司的经营业绩强劲。公司的净收入由2018年的人民币72.332亿元增长16.4%至2019年的人民币84.208亿元，并进一步增长2.8%至2020年的人民币86.586亿元。归属于AutohomeInc.的净利润由2018年的人民币28.71亿元增长11.5%至2019年的人民币32亿元，并进一步增长6.4%至2020年的人民币34.052亿元。根据香港公开发售及国际发售每股发售股份251.8港元的最高公开发售价，假设超额配股权未获行使，公司估计公司的全球发售所得款项净额将约为49.438亿港元，倘超额配股权获悉数行使，则为60.689亿港元。根据国际发售的最高公开发售价每股发售股份251.8港元，销售股东预期收取所得款项约25.424亿港元。投资公司的技术及产品开发：公司将不断发展公司于AI、大数据及云以及AR及VR相关技术的技术领先地位，以增强用户参与度、盈利能力以及经营效率。通过公司已累积的海量数据，公司亦将继续巩固公司的数据能力并提供一流的数据SaaS解决方案，以为汽车行业带来更多价值。所得款项净额的30%(假设超额配股权未获行使)拟用于上述用途。孵化新业务：公司将进一步孵化新业务，如汽车互联网及线上汽车售后服务，以发掘公司未来发展的更多增长潜力。公司认为，通过深入开发行业价值链的产品及服务，公司将能够更好地满足用户及客户需求并为广泛的行业参与者提供坚实的价值。所得款项净额的30%(假设超额配股权未获行使)拟用于上述用途。提高公司国内外的地位，发展定汽车生态系统：将业务范围扩张至海外市场是公司长期策略的一部分。公司已于英国及德国成立两间附属公司，推出了海外版平台“YesAuto”，并计划进一步将公司的业务扩张至东南亚等新兴市场，如东南亚。国内方面，尽管现时公司并无订立任何收购或投资的承诺或协议，但如公司向天天拍(天天拍车)作出的投资一般，公司将继续选择性地物色商业、技术或战略联盟的收购或投资机会，以形成一个强大的全球汽车生态系统。所得款项净额的30%(假设超额配股权未获行使)拟用于上述用途。一般企业用途：公司将余下所得款项用于一般企业用途、营运资金、资本开支及其他一般及行政事宜。所得款项净额的10%(假设超额配股权未获行使)拟用于上述用途。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"02518":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1227,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":365266380,"gmtCreate":1614747358640,"gmtModify":1704774730180,"author":{"id":"3576476136293909","authorId":"3576476136293909","name":"小老二","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5c4122726bb17be855a0fd1a62d04a04","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3576476136293909","idStr":"3576476136293909"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"。。。。。。。。","listText":"。。。。。。。。","text":"。。。。。。。。","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/365266380","repostId":"1136108852","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1136108852","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1614746900,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1136108852?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2021-03-03 12:48","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"Nikola's fraud was exposed, why did Jia Yueting and FF dare to take this path?","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1136108852","media":"腾讯新闻潜望","summary":"Nikola前执行董事长Trevor MiltonSPAC（特殊目的收购公司）作为资本市场中的一种特殊存在，由于其先上市后并入实体业务，实现后者快速上市的特点，成为传统IPO上市方式的一项补充，但近年","content":"<p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/fbad6217bfbbc9553592db451eca4fb6\" tg-width=\"700\" tg-height=\"394\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><span>Trevor Milton, former executive chairman of Nikola</span></p><p>As a special existence in the capital market, SPAC (Special Purpose Acquisition Company) has become a supplement to the traditional IPO listing method because of its characteristics of first listing and then merging into the physical business, realizing the rapid listing of the latter. However, in recent years, the U.S. stock market SPAC listed companies popular among investors have gradually moved to the other extreme.</p><p>According to statistics, most of the companies that have been rapidly listed in the U.S. capital market through SPACs in recent years are low-income or even no-income startups that have been established for a very short time. However, with the so-called industry-leading disruptive technologies and business models, As well as expectations for high growth in future performance, these companies have received valuations of hundreds of millions or even billions of dollars. Once the transaction is completed, it is not uncommon for the stock price to double after listing and the market value to rapidly grow to tens of billions of dollars</p><p>Nikola, an electric truck startup company, is a typical example of this. By merging with a SPAC, Nikola, which has no revenue and no products, quickly went public, and its market value once exceeded US $30 billion under the pursuit of funds, easily surpassing traditional companies such as General Motors and Ford. A giant in the automobile industry, but recently the company was exposed to a series of false information about business and product statements, the founder was forced to step down, and the company's stock price also fell from its highs.</p><p>The successful listing of Nikola has opened a new door for other electric vehicle startups. They can not only obtain much-needed financial support, but also achieve rapid listing without having actual products and revenue now. Such a perfect listing method, It is exactly what many electric vehicle startups that have been struggling for many years and are still in business difficulties dream of.</p><p>Starting from the second half of 2020, electric vehicle startups including Canoo, FF, Lucid, etc. have successively announced merger transactions with SPACs in an attempt to replicate Nikola's success.</p><p>Looking at the transaction information announced by these companies, it is very similar to Nikola: industry-leading \"three electricity\" technology, luxurious lineup of founders and senior management teams, extremely broad market prospects, exciting performance expectations, and Supplemented by With the endorsement of star investment institutions, perfect SPAC transactions are so freshly released.</p><p>But the time window is closing for them at an accelerated rate. Since the beginning of this year, the valuation of the entire electric vehicle industry has begun to enter a period of adjustment after experiencing a sturm and drang last year, and a series of fraud scandals related to SPAC listings such as Nikola have also made investors treat this type of company more cautious..</p><p><b>Nikola's lie was exposed: the founder ran away</b></p><p>Nikola, an electric truck startup whose market value once exceeded $30 billion, finally proved to be a lie.</p><p>Documents submitted by the company to the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission last week disclosed that Trevor Milton, the company's former executive chairman, made at least seven \"inaccurate\" statements about the company's research and development progress of electric and hydrogen-powered trucks between July 2016 and July 2020. In addition, the company itself made two inaccurate statements.</p><p>In fact, these statements were pointed out one by one by an investigation report released by a research institute called Hindenburg Research as early as last September. This self-examination document submitted to the SEC is based on the response to this investigation report.</p><p>These false statements include Milton's claim in 2016 that Nikola has built a zero-emission truck and that five trucks have rolled off the assembly line in 2020. He also emphasized twice in late 2019 and mid-2020 that the company has been able to manufacture 1,000 kilograms of hydrogen and the manufacturing cost per kilogram has dropped below $3.</p><p>After being questioned by Hindenburg Research in September last year, Milton quickly stepped down while busy denying it. Even so, he is still the largest individual shareholder of the company, holding a shareholding ratio of up to 20%. Last year, Nikola passed a \"blank check\" The company merged and went public quickly, and its market value once exceeded US $30 billion. Based on this calculation, Milton's personal wealth once exceeded US $6 billion.</p><p>Even though he has stepped down as executive chairman, the lawyer and legal fees related to Nikola and his personal investigation are still paid by the company. In 2020, Nikola's related fees reached US $24.7 million, of which US $19.5 million was incurred. In the fourth quarter of 2020, in addition, the company also retained US $8.1 million for future legal-related fees for Milton. So far, the company has paid US $15,000 in lawyer litigation fees for him personally.</p><p>The performance of Nikola, which does not have any main business income so far, is unsurprisingly a mess. Its annual revenue in 2020 is only US $95,000, and this mere US $95,000 is only the so-called solar panel installation fee. Nikola's own financial report It also stated that solar panel installation is not the company's main business. The full-year loss was as high as US $380 million, four times higher than the previous year's US $88.65 million. In the fourth quarter of 2020 alone, the loss was as high as US $147 million.</p><p><b>From overtaking GM, Ford to fake scandals</b></p><p>It is such a company with zero income, no products, and has been proved to be a lot of lies. However, it was successfully listed in the middle of last year, and it was once popular with investors in the market. The stock price doubled on the first day of listing, and its market value was once as high as 30 billion dollars, leaving traditional car manufacturers Ford and General Motors far behind.</p><p>This feat of \"turning decay into magic\" is achieved through the so-called SPAC reverse takeover model. The so-called SPAC (Special Purpose Acquisition Company) is an empty shell or \"blank check\" company that sells shares to investors and goes public in advance without any actual business, hoping to realize value appreciation and bring returns to investors through the acquisition of a private company with a physical business in the future.</p><p>Nikola found a SPAC called VectoIQ, and the two parties hit it off and successfully went public two months after the announcement of the merger intention.</p><p>However, if you look carefully at the merger plan document announced by Nikola in March last year, it is not difficult to find that the company's business itself has too many \"virtual\" things and too few \"real\" things. For example, its announced R&D center construction plan will not start until the second and fourth quarters of 2020, including the sales and rental income of electric vehicles, which are all expected income without much basis. The company plans to start producing battery electric vehicles in North America in 2021 and fuel cell electric vehicles in 2023.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2ac65f0b0f1d8a25777736ffe746c39e\" tg-width=\"936\" tg-height=\"422\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><i>(Transaction information disclosed by Nikola: the original shareholders still absolutely control)</i></p><p>According to the transaction information disclosed by Nikola at that time, VectoIQ provided the US $230 million raised during the previous listing, accounting for 5.7% of the shares. Nikola's existing shareholders accounted for 79.6% of the shares. Calculated based on US $10 per share, the combined valuation at that time The value is approximately US $4 billion.</p><p>Once the merger news was announced, VectoIQ's stock price began to skyrocket. After the merger transaction was completed, the stock price once rose to more than 65 US dollars per share, with a market value of more than 30 billion US dollars, bringing huge returns to Nikola's early investors.</p><p>However, as negative news about Nikola continues to surface, the stock price has also begun to fall all the way, especially after the release of the short-selling report, the stock price has further declined. At present, Nikola's stock price is around $18 per share.</p><p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0af463ef291100626d03ada2e7dd9004\" tg-width=\"936\" tg-height=\"630\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><span>(Nikola's stock price falls from a high level from a leading market to a lagging market)</span></p><p>Comparing Nikola's stock price performance with the market can also clearly reflect the trend of this company being favored by investors and then abandoned. Take investing $100 as an example. If you invest in Nikola, the return will be as high as $700 by June 2020. If you invest in the Nasdaq Composite Index or the Nasdaq Green Energy sector, the value will only increase by less than $200, but then continue to hold Nikola will significantly underperform the broader market and related sectors.</p><p><b>Common characteristics of SPAC targets: no revenue, short history</b></p><p>Nikola's listing is just one example of a round of rapid reverse listing boom through SPACs since 2019. Since 2019, 131 SPACs have been listed in the US stock market. Since the beginning of this year, the total amount of funds raised by SPACs has reached 38.3 billion US dollars, far exceeding the 19.8 billion US dollars raised through traditional IPOs during the same period.</p><p>It is not difficult to conclude from some past cases of successful listing through SPACs, including Nikola, that start-up companies that have been acquired by SPACs and successfully achieved rapid listing usually have the following common characteristics. First, the company has been established for a short time, usually only 3 to 5 Years of founding history, followed by extremely low or even no revenue. For example, Nikola did not generate any main revenue before its listing until its market value reached 30 billion US dollars.</p><p>According to a statistic, the median operating income of startups that complete listings through SPACs in 2020 is US $48 million. According to statistics from the \"Wall Street Journal\", companies with zero-revenue listing valuations of more than $1 billion have completed more than traditional IPOs through SPACs, and more have been announced and are not yet completed.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f2793b9a976d121de85db4d36e045259\" tg-width=\"658\" tg-height=\"944\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>At the same time, compared to low income or even zero income, it is the high valuation of the company after the SPAC merger. After complex trading operations with SPACs, the start-up companies acquired by SPACs have obtained extremely high valuations by virtue of their so-called disruptive technologies or business models and high growth expectations for future performance, which can easily cost billions or even tens of billions of dollars. U.S. dollars are not an impossible task. Taking Nikola as an example, the transaction valuation when it announced the merger with VectorIQ has reached 4 billion U.S. dollars, and its market value has soared to a staggering more than 30 billion U.S. dollars after listing.</p><p><b>SPAC deal opens a door for EV startups</b></p><p>SPAC seems to be a fast track to quickly beautify the packaging of these startups, attracting countless startups to flock to it. The successful listing of Nikola has also made other electric vehicle companies in the field of electric vehicle start-ups sense this opportunity. Especially for some companies that have been trapped in financial difficulties for many years, they have been enlightened overnight and began to study this opportunity. special way.</p><p>Among them, there are fast-moving and slow-moving. For example, Canoo, which successfully went public through SPAC in 2020, was established less than 3 years ago. Its founders Ulrich Kranz and Stefan Krause briefly served as FF, an electric vehicle startup founded by Jia Yueting. executive.</p><p>Of course, it also includes FF, the ill-fated electric vehicle startup, which now seems to have finally found a way to move forward. The company announced at the end of January that it had reached a merger agreement with a SPAC, valued at US $3.4 billion, and plans to complete the listing in the second quarter of this year.</p><p>There is another electric vehicle start-up company, Lucid. Jia Yueting used to be the largest shareholder of this company. After more than ten years of difficult development, Lucid also plans to go public through a SPAC, with a valuation of US $24 billion, setting the highest SPAC merger valuation record.</p><p>But looking at the transaction information released by these electric vehicle startups that have announced SPAC transactions, you can see how similar some key information is: almost every company claims to be industry leader in technology, and the company's founder and management team has a luxurious lineup. I am extremely optimistic about the future market prospects and my market position. Within a few years after the product is launched, the revenue can reach hundreds of millions or even billions of dollars. The profit is negative in the first one or two years, and then quickly turns positive and achieves stable profit growth.</p><p>In addition to the above common characteristics, another common point of these companies is that the company has not actually launched any products, and it is still in the stage of research and development and trial production, which means that the revenue will be zero for a long time even after listing through SPAC.</p><p>But these don't seem to be important in the eyes of the current capital market. Some investors have earned tangible profits from the rapid doubling of Nikola's stock price. Whether this company really fakes in the future and whether it will really launch products is not what these investors are concerned about. The same logic should also be applied to other electric vehicle start-ups, so it is the most important thing to get more relevant investment targets in the market as soon as possible.</p><p>The time window is closing at an accelerated pace. After entering 2021, the electric vehicle industry as a whole is facing the challenge of valuation readjustment. The stock price of leader Tesla fell by 20% in January, causing a collective sharp drop in the stock prices of other listed electric vehicle companies. fall.</p><p>The exposure of Nikola's fraud incident has caused its stock price to fall from a high level, which has made many investors in the market smell the danger and begin to be wary of SPAC electric vehicles.</p><p>Shares of SPAC Churchill Capital Corp IV, which has announced a merger with Lucid, have fallen 50% in the past 10 trading days. Canoo's stock price fell 3% on the day it completed its listing transaction at the end of last year, and now it is $14 per share, down 36% from the highest price of $22 per share set after the announcement of the SPAC transaction last year.</p><p>According to past statistics, listed companies with lower income usually perform poorly in stock prices. A study by Jay Ritter, a professor of finance at the University of Florida, found that public companies with annual revenues of less than $50 million have share price performance 28% lower than the market in the first three years after listing.</p><p>Of course, for many investors who are willing to take additional risks and are keen to gain short-term high returns from SPAC companies, it may not matter whether the company's business is authentic or not and whether it can fulfill its promise of future performance.</p>","source":"lsy1587347572404","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Nikola's fraud was exposed, why did Jia Yueting and FF dare to take this path?</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nNikola's fraud was exposed, why did Jia Yueting and FF dare to take this path?\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">腾讯新闻潜望</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-03-03 12:48</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/fbad6217bfbbc9553592db451eca4fb6\" tg-width=\"700\" tg-height=\"394\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><span>Trevor Milton, former executive chairman of Nikola</span></p><p>As a special existence in the capital market, SPAC (Special Purpose Acquisition Company) has become a supplement to the traditional IPO listing method because of its characteristics of first listing and then merging into the physical business, realizing the rapid listing of the latter. However, in recent years, the U.S. stock market SPAC listed companies popular among investors have gradually moved to the other extreme.</p><p>According to statistics, most of the companies that have been rapidly listed in the U.S. capital market through SPACs in recent years are low-income or even no-income startups that have been established for a very short time. However, with the so-called industry-leading disruptive technologies and business models, As well as expectations for high growth in future performance, these companies have received valuations of hundreds of millions or even billions of dollars. Once the transaction is completed, it is not uncommon for the stock price to double after listing and the market value to rapidly grow to tens of billions of dollars</p><p>Nikola, an electric truck startup company, is a typical example of this. By merging with a SPAC, Nikola, which has no revenue and no products, quickly went public, and its market value once exceeded US $30 billion under the pursuit of funds, easily surpassing traditional companies such as General Motors and Ford. A giant in the automobile industry, but recently the company was exposed to a series of false information about business and product statements, the founder was forced to step down, and the company's stock price also fell from its highs.</p><p>The successful listing of Nikola has opened a new door for other electric vehicle startups. They can not only obtain much-needed financial support, but also achieve rapid listing without having actual products and revenue now. Such a perfect listing method, It is exactly what many electric vehicle startups that have been struggling for many years and are still in business difficulties dream of.</p><p>Starting from the second half of 2020, electric vehicle startups including Canoo, FF, Lucid, etc. have successively announced merger transactions with SPACs in an attempt to replicate Nikola's success.</p><p>Looking at the transaction information announced by these companies, it is very similar to Nikola: industry-leading \"three electricity\" technology, luxurious lineup of founders and senior management teams, extremely broad market prospects, exciting performance expectations, and Supplemented by With the endorsement of star investment institutions, perfect SPAC transactions are so freshly released.</p><p>But the time window is closing for them at an accelerated rate. Since the beginning of this year, the valuation of the entire electric vehicle industry has begun to enter a period of adjustment after experiencing a sturm and drang last year, and a series of fraud scandals related to SPAC listings such as Nikola have also made investors treat this type of company more cautious..</p><p><b>Nikola's lie was exposed: the founder ran away</b></p><p>Nikola, an electric truck startup whose market value once exceeded $30 billion, finally proved to be a lie.</p><p>Documents submitted by the company to the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission last week disclosed that Trevor Milton, the company's former executive chairman, made at least seven \"inaccurate\" statements about the company's research and development progress of electric and hydrogen-powered trucks between July 2016 and July 2020. In addition, the company itself made two inaccurate statements.</p><p>In fact, these statements were pointed out one by one by an investigation report released by a research institute called Hindenburg Research as early as last September. This self-examination document submitted to the SEC is based on the response to this investigation report.</p><p>These false statements include Milton's claim in 2016 that Nikola has built a zero-emission truck and that five trucks have rolled off the assembly line in 2020. He also emphasized twice in late 2019 and mid-2020 that the company has been able to manufacture 1,000 kilograms of hydrogen and the manufacturing cost per kilogram has dropped below $3.</p><p>After being questioned by Hindenburg Research in September last year, Milton quickly stepped down while busy denying it. Even so, he is still the largest individual shareholder of the company, holding a shareholding ratio of up to 20%. Last year, Nikola passed a \"blank check\" The company merged and went public quickly, and its market value once exceeded US $30 billion. Based on this calculation, Milton's personal wealth once exceeded US $6 billion.</p><p>Even though he has stepped down as executive chairman, the lawyer and legal fees related to Nikola and his personal investigation are still paid by the company. In 2020, Nikola's related fees reached US $24.7 million, of which US $19.5 million was incurred. In the fourth quarter of 2020, in addition, the company also retained US $8.1 million for future legal-related fees for Milton. So far, the company has paid US $15,000 in lawyer litigation fees for him personally.</p><p>The performance of Nikola, which does not have any main business income so far, is unsurprisingly a mess. Its annual revenue in 2020 is only US $95,000, and this mere US $95,000 is only the so-called solar panel installation fee. Nikola's own financial report It also stated that solar panel installation is not the company's main business. The full-year loss was as high as US $380 million, four times higher than the previous year's US $88.65 million. In the fourth quarter of 2020 alone, the loss was as high as US $147 million.</p><p><b>From overtaking GM, Ford to fake scandals</b></p><p>It is such a company with zero income, no products, and has been proved to be a lot of lies. However, it was successfully listed in the middle of last year, and it was once popular with investors in the market. The stock price doubled on the first day of listing, and its market value was once as high as 30 billion dollars, leaving traditional car manufacturers Ford and General Motors far behind.</p><p>This feat of \"turning decay into magic\" is achieved through the so-called SPAC reverse takeover model. The so-called SPAC (Special Purpose Acquisition Company) is an empty shell or \"blank check\" company that sells shares to investors and goes public in advance without any actual business, hoping to realize value appreciation and bring returns to investors through the acquisition of a private company with a physical business in the future.</p><p>Nikola found a SPAC called VectoIQ, and the two parties hit it off and successfully went public two months after the announcement of the merger intention.</p><p>However, if you look carefully at the merger plan document announced by Nikola in March last year, it is not difficult to find that the company's business itself has too many \"virtual\" things and too few \"real\" things. For example, its announced R&D center construction plan will not start until the second and fourth quarters of 2020, including the sales and rental income of electric vehicles, which are all expected income without much basis. The company plans to start producing battery electric vehicles in North America in 2021 and fuel cell electric vehicles in 2023.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2ac65f0b0f1d8a25777736ffe746c39e\" tg-width=\"936\" tg-height=\"422\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><i>(Transaction information disclosed by Nikola: the original shareholders still absolutely control)</i></p><p>According to the transaction information disclosed by Nikola at that time, VectoIQ provided the US $230 million raised during the previous listing, accounting for 5.7% of the shares. Nikola's existing shareholders accounted for 79.6% of the shares. Calculated based on US $10 per share, the combined valuation at that time The value is approximately US $4 billion.</p><p>Once the merger news was announced, VectoIQ's stock price began to skyrocket. After the merger transaction was completed, the stock price once rose to more than 65 US dollars per share, with a market value of more than 30 billion US dollars, bringing huge returns to Nikola's early investors.</p><p>However, as negative news about Nikola continues to surface, the stock price has also begun to fall all the way, especially after the release of the short-selling report, the stock price has further declined. At present, Nikola's stock price is around $18 per share.</p><p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0af463ef291100626d03ada2e7dd9004\" tg-width=\"936\" tg-height=\"630\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><span>(Nikola's stock price falls from a high level from a leading market to a lagging market)</span></p><p>Comparing Nikola's stock price performance with the market can also clearly reflect the trend of this company being favored by investors and then abandoned. Take investing $100 as an example. If you invest in Nikola, the return will be as high as $700 by June 2020. If you invest in the Nasdaq Composite Index or the Nasdaq Green Energy sector, the value will only increase by less than $200, but then continue to hold Nikola will significantly underperform the broader market and related sectors.</p><p><b>Common characteristics of SPAC targets: no revenue, short history</b></p><p>Nikola's listing is just one example of a round of rapid reverse listing boom through SPACs since 2019. Since 2019, 131 SPACs have been listed in the US stock market. Since the beginning of this year, the total amount of funds raised by SPACs has reached 38.3 billion US dollars, far exceeding the 19.8 billion US dollars raised through traditional IPOs during the same period.</p><p>It is not difficult to conclude from some past cases of successful listing through SPACs, including Nikola, that start-up companies that have been acquired by SPACs and successfully achieved rapid listing usually have the following common characteristics. First, the company has been established for a short time, usually only 3 to 5 Years of founding history, followed by extremely low or even no revenue. For example, Nikola did not generate any main revenue before its listing until its market value reached 30 billion US dollars.</p><p>According to a statistic, the median operating income of startups that complete listings through SPACs in 2020 is US $48 million. According to statistics from the \"Wall Street Journal\", companies with zero-revenue listing valuations of more than $1 billion have completed more than traditional IPOs through SPACs, and more have been announced and are not yet completed.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f2793b9a976d121de85db4d36e045259\" tg-width=\"658\" tg-height=\"944\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>At the same time, compared to low income or even zero income, it is the high valuation of the company after the SPAC merger. After complex trading operations with SPACs, the start-up companies acquired by SPACs have obtained extremely high valuations by virtue of their so-called disruptive technologies or business models and high growth expectations for future performance, which can easily cost billions or even tens of billions of dollars. U.S. dollars are not an impossible task. Taking Nikola as an example, the transaction valuation when it announced the merger with VectorIQ has reached 4 billion U.S. dollars, and its market value has soared to a staggering more than 30 billion U.S. dollars after listing.</p><p><b>SPAC deal opens a door for EV startups</b></p><p>SPAC seems to be a fast track to quickly beautify the packaging of these startups, attracting countless startups to flock to it. The successful listing of Nikola has also made other electric vehicle companies in the field of electric vehicle start-ups sense this opportunity. Especially for some companies that have been trapped in financial difficulties for many years, they have been enlightened overnight and began to study this opportunity. special way.</p><p>Among them, there are fast-moving and slow-moving. For example, Canoo, which successfully went public through SPAC in 2020, was established less than 3 years ago. Its founders Ulrich Kranz and Stefan Krause briefly served as FF, an electric vehicle startup founded by Jia Yueting. executive.</p><p>Of course, it also includes FF, the ill-fated electric vehicle startup, which now seems to have finally found a way to move forward. The company announced at the end of January that it had reached a merger agreement with a SPAC, valued at US $3.4 billion, and plans to complete the listing in the second quarter of this year.</p><p>There is another electric vehicle start-up company, Lucid. Jia Yueting used to be the largest shareholder of this company. After more than ten years of difficult development, Lucid also plans to go public through a SPAC, with a valuation of US $24 billion, setting the highest SPAC merger valuation record.</p><p>But looking at the transaction information released by these electric vehicle startups that have announced SPAC transactions, you can see how similar some key information is: almost every company claims to be industry leader in technology, and the company's founder and management team has a luxurious lineup. I am extremely optimistic about the future market prospects and my market position. Within a few years after the product is launched, the revenue can reach hundreds of millions or even billions of dollars. The profit is negative in the first one or two years, and then quickly turns positive and achieves stable profit growth.</p><p>In addition to the above common characteristics, another common point of these companies is that the company has not actually launched any products, and it is still in the stage of research and development and trial production, which means that the revenue will be zero for a long time even after listing through SPAC.</p><p>But these don't seem to be important in the eyes of the current capital market. Some investors have earned tangible profits from the rapid doubling of Nikola's stock price. Whether this company really fakes in the future and whether it will really launch products is not what these investors are concerned about. The same logic should also be applied to other electric vehicle start-ups, so it is the most important thing to get more relevant investment targets in the market as soon as possible.</p><p>The time window is closing at an accelerated pace. After entering 2021, the electric vehicle industry as a whole is facing the challenge of valuation readjustment. The stock price of leader Tesla fell by 20% in January, causing a collective sharp drop in the stock prices of other listed electric vehicle companies. fall.</p><p>The exposure of Nikola's fraud incident has caused its stock price to fall from a high level, which has made many investors in the market smell the danger and begin to be wary of SPAC electric vehicles.</p><p>Shares of SPAC Churchill Capital Corp IV, which has announced a merger with Lucid, have fallen 50% in the past 10 trading days. Canoo's stock price fell 3% on the day it completed its listing transaction at the end of last year, and now it is $14 per share, down 36% from the highest price of $22 per share set after the announcement of the SPAC transaction last year.</p><p>According to past statistics, listed companies with lower income usually perform poorly in stock prices. A study by Jay Ritter, a professor of finance at the University of Florida, found that public companies with annual revenues of less than $50 million have share price performance 28% lower than the market in the first three years after listing.</p><p>Of course, for many investors who are willing to take additional risks and are keen to gain short-term high returns from SPAC companies, it may not matter whether the company's business is authentic or not and whether it can fulfill its promise of future performance.</p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> source：<a href=\"http://new.qq.com/omn/20210303/20210303A01USA00.html\">腾讯新闻潜望</a></p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/fbad6217bfbbc9553592db451eca4fb6","relate_stocks":{},"source_url":"http://new.qq.com/omn/20210303/20210303A01USA00.html","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1136108852","content_text":"Nikola前执行董事长Trevor MiltonSPAC（特殊目的收购公司）作为资本市场中的一种特殊存在，由于其先上市后并入实体业务，实现后者快速上市的特点，成为传统IPO上市方式的一项补充，但近年来美股市场中投资者所热捧的SPAC类上市公司，却逐渐走向另一个极端。据数据统计，近年来通过SPAC实现快速在美国资本市场上市的公司，大多数是低收入甚至无收入，且成立时间极短的初创公司，但凭借着所谓行业领先的颠覆性技术和商业模式，以及对未来业绩高成长性的预期，这些公司都获得了动辄数亿甚至数十亿美元的估值，交易一旦完成，上市后股价翻倍市值迅速增长至百亿美元的例子也屡见不鲜电动卡车初创公司Nikola就是这其中的一个典型例子，通过与一家SPAC合并，无收入无产品的Nikola迅速实现了上市，并在资金的追捧下市值一度超过300亿美元，轻松超越通用、福特等传统汽车行业巨头，但近来这家公司被爆出一系列关于业务和产品陈述的虚假信息，创始人被迫下台，公司股价也从高位滑落。Nikola的上市成功为其他电动车初创公司打开了一扇新的大门，既能获得急需的资金支持、又能实现快速上市，且不需要现在就有实际的产品和收入，这样完美的上市方式，正是许多摸爬滚打多年仍处在业务困境中的电动车初创公司梦寐以求的。从2020年下半年开始，包括Canoo、FF、Lucid等电动车初创公司纷纷先后宣布与SPAC的合并交易，企图复制Nikola的成功。翻看这些公司对外公布的交易信息，又与Nikola何其的相似：行业领先的“三电”技术、阵容豪华的创始人和高管团队、无比广阔的市场前景、令人振奋的业绩预期，再辅以明星投资机构的背书，一桩桩完美SPAC交易就这么新鲜出炉了。但时间窗口正在对他们加速关闭。今年以来，整个电动车行业的估值在经历了去年一年的狂飙突进后，开始进入调整期，而Nikola等一系列与SPAC上市相关的造假丑闻，也让投资者开始更加谨慎对待这一类公司。Nikola的谎言被戳穿：创始人出走市值曾一度超过300亿美元的电动卡车初创公司Nikola终被证实是一场谎言。上周这家公司提交给美国证券交易委员会的文件披露，该公司前执行董事长Trevor Milton在2016年7月至2020年7月之间，关于公司在电动和氢能源动力卡车的研发进展方面，至少做了7次“不准确”的陈述。除此以外，公司自身也做了两次不准确的陈述。事实上，这些陈述早在去年9月就被一家名为Hindenburg Research的研究机构所发布的一份调查报告所一一指出，这份提交给证交会的自查文件，正是基于回应这份调查报告的回应。这些虚假陈述，包括在2016年Milton称Nikola已经造出了一台零排放卡车，2020年已经有5辆卡车下线，他还在2019年末和2020年年中两次强调该公司已经能够制造1000公斤的氢气并且每公斤的制造成本已经下降到3美元以下。在去年9月被Hindenburg Research提出质疑后，Milton一边忙着否认，一边火速卸任，即便如此，他仍然是这家公司最大的个人股东，持股比例高达20%，去年Nikola通过与“空白支票”公司合并快速上市，市值一度超过300亿美元，照此计算，Milton的个人财富也一度超过60亿美元。即便已经卸任执行董事长一职，但与Nikola和他个人调查相关的律师和法务费用依然由公司所支付，在2020年，Nikola公司与之相关的费用达到2470万美元，其中1950万美元产生与2020年第四季度，此外，公司还留存了810万美元的用于未来为Milton支付的法律相关费用，至今为止，公司已经为他个人支付了1.5万美元律师诉讼费用。至今为止没有任何主营业务收入的Nikola的业绩也是不出意料的一塌糊涂，2020年全年的收入仅为9.5万美元，且这区区9.5万美元也只是所谓太阳能板安装费，Nikola公司自己在财报中也表示，太阳能板安装并非公司主要业务。全年亏损高达3.8亿美元，比前一年的8865万美元扩大了4倍。仅2020年第四季度，亏损额便高达1.47亿美元。从超越通用、福特到造假丑闻就是这样一家零收入，无产品，已经被证实为谎话连篇的公司，却已经在去年年中顺利上市了，而且一度受到市场中投资者热捧，上市首日股价便翻倍，市值一度高达300亿美元，将传统车厂福特、通用等都远远甩在身后。实现这一“化腐朽为神奇”壮举的是通过所谓SPAC反向收购的模式，所谓SPAC（特殊目的收购公司）是一种通过向投资者出售份额，提前上市的无任何实际业务的空壳或“空白支票”公司，期望未来通过并购一家有实体业务的私营公司，实现价值增值，为投资者带来回报。Nikola正是找到了一家名为VectoIQ的SPAC，双方一拍即合，在合并意向宣布两个月后便成功实现上市。但仔细翻看Nikola在去年3月份公布的合并计划文件便不难发现，这家公司业务本身“虚”的东西太多，“实”的东西太少，例如其所公布的研发中心建设计划，要到2020年第二季度和第四季度才开始，包括电动车的销售、租赁收入也全部是没有太多依据的预期收入，该公司计划从2021年开始在北美生产电池电动车，2023年开始生产燃料电池电动车，但预计2024年就能够实现32亿美元的收入，且息税摊销折旧前利润率将稳定在25%以上。（Nikola披露的交易信息：原股东仍绝对控股）根据Nikola当时所披露的交易信息显示，VectoIQ提供了此前上市时所募集的2.3亿美元，占股份比例为5.7%，Nikola现有股东占股份比例为79.6%，按照每股10美元计算，当时合并估值约为40亿美元。在合并消息一经宣布后，VectoIQ的股价便开始扶摇直上，在合并交易完成后，股价更是一度涨至每股超过65美元，市值超过300亿美元，为Nikola的早期投资者带来丰厚的回报。但随着关于Nikola的负面消息不断浮出水面，股价也开始一路走低，尤其是在做空报告发布后，股价更是进一步下滑，目前Nikola股价在每股18美元附近。（Nikola股价高位回落 从领先市场到落后市场）将Nikola的股价表现与市场相比，也能够明显反映出这家公司被投资者热捧后又遭抛弃的趋势，以投资100美元为例，如果投资于Nikola，到2020年6月回报高达700美元，如果投资于纳斯达克综合指数或纳斯达克绿色能源板块，仅增值不到200美元，但随后继续持有Nikola将会明显跑输大盘和相关板块。SPAC标的共同特征：无收入、短历史Nikola的上市仅仅是从2019年起一轮通过SPAC实现快速反向上市热潮的其中一例。自2019年以来，美股市场已经有131家SPAC实现上市。今年以来，SPAC募集资金总额已达383亿美元，远超同期通过传统IPO上市融资的198亿美元。从包括Nikola在内的过往的一些通过SPAC成功上市的案例不难总结出，被SPAC并购并顺利实现快速上市的初创公司通常具备以下共同特征，首先是公司成立时间短，通常是仅3至5年的创办历史，其次是收入极低甚至没有收入，例如Nikola剔除非主营业务的太阳能板安装费收入外，其上市前直到市值冲上300亿美元，都没有产生过任何主营收入。据一份统计数据显示，通过SPAC完成上市的初创公司2020年营业收入中位数为4800万美元。据《华尔街日报》数据统计，零收入上市估值超过10亿美元的公司，通过SPAC完成的已经超过传统IPO的数量，并且已经宣布并且尚未完成中的数量更多。同时，与低收入甚至零收入相对的，却是SPAC合并后公司的高估值。经过与SPAC的复杂交易操作后，被SPAC并购的初创公司凭借着其所谓的颠覆性技术或商业模式，对未来业绩的高成长性预期，获得极高估值，动辄数十亿美元甚至上百亿美元并不是不可能完成的任务，以Nikola为例，宣布与VectorIQ并购时的交易估值便已经达到40亿美元，上市后市值更是一路飙升至令人咋舌300亿美元以上。SPAC交易为电动车初创公司打开一扇大门SPAC仿佛成了将这些初创公司迅速美化包装的快速通道，让无数初创公司趋之若鹜。Nikola的上市成功，也令同在电动车初创领域的其他电动车公司嗅到了这一机会，尤其是对于多年来受困于资金窘境的部分公司，一夜之间醍醐灌顶，纷纷开始研究起这一特殊方式来。这其中有动作快的也有慢的，例如在2020年就通过SPAC成功实现上市的Canoo，当时成立时间不到3年，其创始人Ulrich Kranz和Stefan Krause曾短暂担任贾跃亭创办的电动车初创公司FF的高管。当然还包括FF，这家命途多舛的电动车初创公司，如今仿佛终于找到了继续前进的方向。这家公司1月底宣布已经和一家SPAC达成合并协议，估值34亿美元，计划在今年第二季度完成上市。还有另一家电动车初创公司Lucid，贾跃亭曾经是这家公司的最大股东，在经过十多年的艰难发展后，Lucid也计划通过SPAC上市，估值达到240亿美元，创下SPAC合并估值最高纪录。但翻看这些已经宣布SPAC交易的电动车初创公司公布的交易信息，你能看到一些关键信息何其相似：几乎每一家公司都宣称自己的技术业界领先，公司的创始人和管理层团队阵容豪华，对于未来市场前景和自己所处的市场地位无比乐观，产品上市后几年内收入就能够达到上亿甚至数十亿美元，盈利在最初一两年为负，随后迅速转正并实现盈利稳定增长。除了上述共同特征以外，这些公司的另一大共同点在于公司还没有任何一款产品真正上市，还处于研发和试产阶段，也就是说收入即便在通过SPAC上市后很长一段时间都将是零。但这些在当下的资本市场眼中似乎并不重要，有投资者已经从Nikola股价快速翻倍中赚到了实实在在的收益，未来这家公司是否真的造假，是否真的会推出产品，并不是这些投资者所关心的问题，同样的逻辑应该也可以应用到其他电动车初创公司身上，所以尽快让市场中多一些相关的投资标的才是最紧要的事。时间窗口正在加速关闭，进入2021年后，电动车行业整体面临着估值重新调整的挑战，领头羊特斯拉股价1月之间跌去20%，引起其他已上市电动车公司股价的集体大幅下跌。Nikola造假事件的曝光让其股价从高位跌落，已经让市场中的许多投资者嗅到了危险的气息，开始对SPAC类电动车开始警惕。已经宣布与Lucid进行合并的SPAC Churchill Capital Corp IV股价在过去10个交易日中跌去了50%。Canoo在去年底完成上市交易的当天股价便跌去3%，如今每股14美元，距离去年SPAC交易宣布后创下的每股22美元的最高价位已经下跌36%。根据过往的数据统计，收入较低的上市公司通常股价表现不佳。佛罗里达大学金融学教授Jay Ritter的一项研究发现，年收入低于5000万美元的上市公司，股价表现在上市后前三年比市场低28%。当然对于许多愿意承受额外风险，热衷于博取SPAC类公司短期高收益的投资者来说，公司业务的真实性与否和能否兑现未来业绩的承诺，可能并不重要。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"PSAC":0.9,"NKLA":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1252,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0}],"lives":[]}