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2022-03-01

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2022-02-22

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2022-09-19

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Pre-Bell｜U.S. Futures Fall Nearly 1%; One Company Shares Jump 24%

2022-06-21

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Should You Buy Tesla Now or Wait Until After the Stock Split?

2022-02-01

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U.S. stocks "tiger turns into meow" in the New Year? Historical data: It can still rise back!

2022-01-31

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The Fed tightening storm is coming, and everyone is asking where is the bottom of the stock market?

2022-11-07

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2 Growth Stocks That Could Soar 133% to 226% From Their 52-Week Lows, According to Wall Street

2022-09-10

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2022-06-02

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The "small non-farm payrolls" in May fell short of expectations. Is there a reason for the Fed to suspend rate hike in September?

2022-02-26

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Chinese faces in Ukraine, how are they doing now

2022-02-10

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It's really different this time? How to understand the Fed's new "improvisation" framework

2022-02-03

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Goldman Sachs believes that now is a good opportunity for U.S. stocks to "buy on dips". What is the basis?

2022-11-19

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Why Coinbase Stock Is Down Another 7% on Friday

2022-06-17

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Recession fears are resurfacing, when will there be a turnaround?

2022-06-04

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2022-03-03

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Last night and this morning | U.S. oil reached a new high in the past ten years! Apple welcomes spring conference

2022-02-23

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It's about the global economy! 4 Implications of the Escalation of Russia-Ukraine Conflict

2022-02-21

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Learn from history! How will U.S. stocks perform in the tightening cycle?

2022-01-18

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2022-01-12

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22:39","market":"other","language":"zh","title":"Chinese concept stocks are rising strongly! Wuxin Technology rose 6%, Bilibili and Pinduoduo rose more than 3%","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1120895828","media":"老虎资讯综合","summary":"1月19日，纳斯达克中国金龙指数涨超2%，雾芯科技涨超6%，贝壳涨超4%，哔哩哔哩、拼多多、百度涨超3%，京东、阿里巴巴涨超2%。","content":"<p><html><head></head><body>On January 19, the Nasdaq China Golden Dragon Index rose by more than 2%, and Wuxin Technology rose by more than 6%.<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BEKE\">Shells</a>Rose more than 4%,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BILI\">Bilibili</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/PDD\">Pinduoduo</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BIDU\">Baidu</a>Up more than 3%, JD.com,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BABA\">Alibaba</a>Up more than 2%.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/386df0369de8f8132ed55308f75d48f4\" tg-width=\"840\" tg-height=\"470\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f1b52b83976ceb2d08dd22efa28a5075\" tg-width=\"840\" tg-height=\"470\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p></body></html></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Chinese concept stocks are rising strongly! Wuxin Technology rose 6%, Bilibili and Pinduoduo rose more than 3%</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nChinese concept stocks are rising strongly! Wuxin Technology rose 6%, Bilibili and Pinduoduo rose more than 3%\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/102\">\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">老虎资讯综合 </p>\n<p class=\"h-time smaller\">2023-01-19 22:39</p>\n</div>\n</a>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><html><head></head><body>On January 19, the Nasdaq China Golden Dragon Index rose by more than 2%, and Wuxin Technology rose by more than 6%.<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BEKE\">Shells</a>Rose more than 4%,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BILI\">Bilibili</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/PDD\">Pinduoduo</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BIDU\">Baidu</a>Up more than 3%, JD.com,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BABA\">Alibaba</a>Up more than 2%.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/386df0369de8f8132ed55308f75d48f4\" tg-width=\"840\" tg-height=\"470\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f1b52b83976ceb2d08dd22efa28a5075\" tg-width=\"840\" tg-height=\"470\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p></body></html></p>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c7da52addfd52fb216bcf87283f43750","relate_stocks":{"HXC":"纳斯达克中国金龙指数","RLX":"雾芯科技"},"source_url":"","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1120895828","content_text":"1月19日，纳斯达克中国金龙指数涨超2%，雾芯科技涨超6%，贝壳涨超4%，哔哩哔哩、拼多多、百度涨超3%，京东、阿里巴巴涨超2%。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"HXC":0.9,"RLX":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2778,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9958303199,"gmtCreate":1673624149112,"gmtModify":1676538866853,"author":{"id":"3576729709142650","authorId":"3576729709142650","name":"Sunc","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/12ea94f8a6bfc2835bf320bed8216f7d","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3576729709142650","idStr":"3576729709142650"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"ok","listText":"ok","text":"ok","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9958303199","repostId":"1187472513","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1187472513","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1673621042,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1187472513?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2023-01-13 22:44","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"Loss of $3 billion in the past three years! Goldman Sachs' newly formed consumer finance arm is losing money","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1187472513","media":"华尔街见闻","summary":"在转型消费金融的过程中，高盛付出了惨痛代价。","content":"<p><html><head></head><body>Author: Zhao Ying</p><p>The \"King of Wall Street\" can't play consumer loans, and is losing more and more money in this business.</p><p>On Friday, Goldman Sachs' 8-K filings disclosed at the US Securities and Exchange Commission showed that,<b>Its platform solutions division (Fintech and consumer finance businesses) suffered pre-tax losses of more than $1.2 billion from January to September 2022, and losses are accelerating every quarter.</b></p><p>According to the documents, from the beginning of 2020 to the end of September, the platform solutions segment suffered a cumulative loss of $3 billion. When the latest quarterly data is released next week,<b>The three-year cumulative loss is expected to be close to $4 billion. Looking at the amount of credit loss reserves, the loss last year will reach $2 billion.</b></p><p>This business lately originated from Goldman Sachs CEO Solomon's \"retail banking dream\". In 2016, Goldman Sachs launched Marcus, a consumer banking business, to provide retail consumers with products such as loans, savings and certificates of deposit. It also provides consumers with credit card Apple Card through cooperation with Apple.</p><p>However, the development process of Goldman Sachs' consumer finance business is very bumpy, with leadership changes, regulatory investigations and sharp rises in losses. Due to soaring costs and difficulties in establishing new business lines, Goldman Sachs launched the largest restructuring in history last October to spin off its consumer finance business.</p><p>Goldman Sachs merged its four business units into three, investment banking and trading business, asset management and wealth management, and platform solutions department (including the business for corporate customers in retail banking, Fintech platform investment business, GreenSky, a professional lender, and its cooperative business with Apple Card and General Motors).</p><p>Among them, investment banking and trading businesses may be the only businesses that are profitable.</p><p><b>In addition, the media quoted</b><b>People in the know</b><b>Pointed out that the $1 billion pre-tax loss reported by the Platform Solutions segment in 2021 was primarily related to Apple Card</b>, they said the loss of about $2 billion in 2022 was caused by Apple Card and installment loan platform GreenSky.</p><p>Goldman's overall consumer business had initially been expected to break even by the end of last year, and executives in the platform solutions unit now predict that the unit could achieve that sometime in 2025, according to people familiar with the matter, but the final situation is yet to be determined.</p><p>At the same time, facing the pressure of huge losses, Goldman Sachs CEO Solomon is looking for other ways to reduce spending. This week, Goldman Sachs kicked off the largest layoffs in history and considered reducing the bonus pool of employees in the investment banking department by at least 40%. At the same time, it launched the largest cost reduction plan since the financial crisis, targeting the new technology department, consumer department and other aspects, and pointing out that it evaluated various expenses from purchasing private jets to travel, meetings and even external suppliers.</p><p></body></html></p>","source":"live_wallstreetcn","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Loss of $3 billion in the past three years! Goldman Sachs' newly formed consumer finance arm is losing money</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nLoss of $3 billion in the past three years! Goldman Sachs' newly formed consumer finance arm is losing money\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">华尔街见闻</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2023-01-13 22:44</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><html><head></head><body>Author: Zhao Ying</p><p>The \"King of Wall Street\" can't play consumer loans, and is losing more and more money in this business.</p><p>On Friday, Goldman Sachs' 8-K filings disclosed at the US Securities and Exchange Commission showed that,<b>Its platform solutions division (Fintech and consumer finance businesses) suffered pre-tax losses of more than $1.2 billion from January to September 2022, and losses are accelerating every quarter.</b></p><p>According to the documents, from the beginning of 2020 to the end of September, the platform solutions segment suffered a cumulative loss of $3 billion. When the latest quarterly data is released next week,<b>The three-year cumulative loss is expected to be close to $4 billion. Looking at the amount of credit loss reserves, the loss last year will reach $2 billion.</b></p><p>This business lately originated from Goldman Sachs CEO Solomon's \"retail banking dream\". In 2016, Goldman Sachs launched Marcus, a consumer banking business, to provide retail consumers with products such as loans, savings and certificates of deposit. It also provides consumers with credit card Apple Card through cooperation with Apple.</p><p>However, the development process of Goldman Sachs' consumer finance business is very bumpy, with leadership changes, regulatory investigations and sharp rises in losses. Due to soaring costs and difficulties in establishing new business lines, Goldman Sachs launched the largest restructuring in history last October to spin off its consumer finance business.</p><p>Goldman Sachs merged its four business units into three, investment banking and trading business, asset management and wealth management, and platform solutions department (including the business for corporate customers in retail banking, Fintech platform investment business, GreenSky, a professional lender, and its cooperative business with Apple Card and General Motors).</p><p>Among them, investment banking and trading businesses may be the only businesses that are profitable.</p><p><b>In addition, the media quoted</b><b>People in the know</b><b>Pointed out that the $1 billion pre-tax loss reported by the Platform Solutions segment in 2021 was primarily related to Apple Card</b>, they said the loss of about $2 billion in 2022 was caused by Apple Card and installment loan platform GreenSky.</p><p>Goldman's overall consumer business had initially been expected to break even by the end of last year, and executives in the platform solutions unit now predict that the unit could achieve that sometime in 2025, according to people familiar with the matter, but the final situation is yet to be determined.</p><p>At the same time, facing the pressure of huge losses, Goldman Sachs CEO Solomon is looking for other ways to reduce spending. This week, Goldman Sachs kicked off the largest layoffs in history and considered reducing the bonus pool of employees in the investment banking department by at least 40%. At the same time, it launched the largest cost reduction plan since the financial crisis, targeting the new technology department, consumer department and other aspects, and pointing out that it evaluated various expenses from purchasing private jets to travel, meetings and even external suppliers.</p><p></body></html></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> source：<a href=\"https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3679833\">华尔街见闻</a></p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1b3684302211042d481cacf9066fbcca","relate_stocks":{"GS":"高盛"},"source_url":"https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3679833","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/cc96873d3d23ee6ac10685520df9c100","article_id":"1187472513","content_text":"作者：赵颖“华尔街之王”玩不转消费贷，在这一业务上亏损越来越大。周五，高盛在美国证券交易委员会披露的8-K文件显示，其平台解决方案部门（Fintech和消费金融业务）在2022年1-9月份，税前亏损超过12亿美元，而且每季度亏损都在加速。文件显示，从2020年初到9月底，平台解决方案部门亏损累计达30亿美元。当下周最新一季度的数据发布后，预计三年累计损失将接近40亿美元。从信贷损失准备金数额的来看，去年损失将达到20亿美元。这一业务最新源于高盛CEO所罗门的“零售银行梦”，2016年高盛推出消费者银行业务Marcus，向零售消费者提供贷款、储蓄和存单等产品，还通过与苹果公司的合作向消费者提供信用卡Apple Card。然而，高盛消费金融业务发展过程十分坎坷，领导层更替、监管调查、亏损大幅攀升。由于持续飙升的成本和建立新业务线困难重重，高盛在去年10月推出史上最大规模重组，分拆消费金融业务。高盛把四大业务部门合并为三个，投资银行和交易业务、资产管理和财富管理以及平台解决方案部门（包括零售银行中面向企业客户的业务、Fintech 平台投资业务、专业贷款机构 GreenSky 以及其与苹果公司（Apple Card）、通用汽车的合作业务）。其中，投资银行和交易业务可能是唯一盈利的业务。此外，媒体援引知情人士指出，平台解决方案部门2021年报告的10亿美元税前亏损主要与Apple Card有关，他们表示2022年约20亿美元亏损是由Apple Card和分期贷款平台GreenSky导致的。高盛的整体消费者业务最初曾预计将在去年年底实现收支平衡，知情人士称，平台解决方案部门的高管们现在预测，该部门可能在2025年的某个时候实现这一目标，但最终情况尚未确定。与此同时，面对巨额亏损的压力，高盛CEO所罗门正在寻求其他方式来缩减支出，本周高盛拉开史上最大规模裁员的序幕、并考虑将投行部门员工奖金池缩减至少40%后，同时启动了金融危机以来最大规模的降本计划，矛头直指新技术部门、消费部门等各方面指出，评估从购置私人飞机到差旅、会议乃至外部供应商的各项费用。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"GS":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2844,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9951413054,"gmtCreate":1673537815378,"gmtModify":1676538853139,"author":{"id":"3576729709142650","authorId":"3576729709142650","name":"Sunc","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/12ea94f8a6bfc2835bf320bed8216f7d","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3576729709142650","idStr":"3576729709142650"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"ok","listText":"ok","text":"ok","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9951413054","repostId":"1106057993","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2323,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9951040533,"gmtCreate":1673364105822,"gmtModify":1676538824895,"author":{"id":"3576729709142650","authorId":"3576729709142650","name":"Sunc","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/12ea94f8a6bfc2835bf320bed8216f7d","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3576729709142650","idStr":"3576729709142650"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"ok","listText":"ok","text":"ok","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9951040533","repostId":"1185461473","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1185461473","kind":"news","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"提供来自华尔街的观点，观察市场，提供独道的解读视角。","home_visible":1,"media_name":"老虎锐评","id":"1005414032","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba"},"pubTimestamp":1673358951,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1185461473?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2023-01-10 21:55","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"Tiger Sharp Commentary | US CPI estimate for December, how much will the increase fall?","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1185461473","media":"老虎锐评","summary":"周四的数字不会难看。","content":"<p><html><head></head><body><b>December CPI Estimates</b></p><p>Since last Friday, the market has been trading with obvious macro signs. What is called market trading has obvious macro signs, that is to say, there is no logic in the rise and fall of the stock market, but the trading logic of other assets is very strong, and when the stock market suddenly rises or falls, it happens to be when the prices of other macro assets change drastically.</p><p>In order of importance, the decisive factor for the U.S. rate hike resolution is now \"<b>CPI data > Powell on an occasion > Other Fed members on an occasion > FOMC meeting</b>”。 The least interesting thing to watch is the FOMC meeting. Of course, I have to watch it because I am afraid that the Fed will thunder.</p><p>The CPI data of the United States in December has not yet come out, but the CPI data of the European Union has come out. According to Bloomberg data, the EU's CPI data in December fell further from high levels. The figure below shows the CPI of the United States (blue line) and the European Union (white line), which are closely related. Careful people will find that the EU CPI seems to rise and fall later than that of the United States. The core reason for this lies in the energy part.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1da9c1b458f4ae27c6343845d3c362a0\" tg-width=\"1599\" tg-height=\"815\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>The chart below shows the growth rate of the energy component of the US CPI, which peaked in June last year.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4178d5d5316c92b4cc480c2901621104\" tg-width=\"947\" tg-height=\"560\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>However, the energy part of the EU CPI only began to fall in October last year. This difference is also consistent with common sense. The United States has stronger energy independence and the EU has stronger energy dependence.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b0c7e4429e60cbcb22e9dd75ddad726c\" tg-width=\"1866\" tg-height=\"815\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>The further decline of the EU's CPI in December implies that the United States will also fall. What is the CPI of 12 in the United States? I'll estimate it today.</p><p>The first part is energy. The year-on-year growth in November is still 13%, but according to the average price of gasoline, the year-on-year growth in December will be negative, which means that the price of gasoline in December 2022 is higher than that in December 2021. Gasoline prices are still cheap, with a year-on-year increase of about-1%. Considering that there are some service parts in the energy part, the price is sticky to a certain extent, and the year-on-year growth of energy is only about 3%. The chart below shows gasoline prices in the United States, and the red box is December.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/02408072b8cc9d2d908fb63026ce78fe\" tg-width=\"1866\" tg-height=\"815\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>The second part is food (the picture below shows the index of food), which belongs to the relatively stubborn part of inflation. At present, inflation has begun to slow down month-on-month. Let's deal with it mathematically here. Using the month-on-month increase in November to estimate the food index in December, then the year-on-year growth of the food part in December is 10%, which is similar to the year-on-year growth of 10.6% in November.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/89390ae120d8aad75d80c8a7084b1f26\" tg-width=\"926\" tg-height=\"560\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>For Part III (Goods) and Part IV (Services), the treatment is similar to that of food. The year-on-year growth of goods will be 2%, down from 3.7% in November; The year-on-year growth of services will be 7%, slightly higher than the 6.8% in November. The decline in commodity prices is obvious to all, so it may actually be lower than 2%. The year-on-year growth of services is still sticky, and the rent contributes the most. Judging from the actual experience now, the rent has indeed not fallen.</p><p><b>Finally, the four parts of the forecast are put on their respective weight coefficients, and the inflation forecast in December is 6.0%. At present, the average expectation of Wall Street analysts is 6.5%, and mine is 0.5% lower than their expectation.</b>Note that my estimates are actually conservative, because the month-on-month growth of food, goods and services has become smaller and smaller in the past four months, and I apply the month-on-month growth in November to estimate the number in December, which is very conservative. The figure below shows the index and month-on-month growth of these three parts in the past four months, and the trend of weakening month-on-month is obvious.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/241911f59afe4f641417c5dd98836505\" tg-width=\"321\" tg-height=\"181\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Thursday's numbers won't be ugly.</p><p><i>Disclaimer: It is not a research report, for informational purposes only, and does not constitute any investment advice.</i></p><p></body></html></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Tiger Sharp Commentary | US CPI estimate for December, how much will the increase fall?</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nTiger Sharp Commentary | US CPI estimate for December, how much will the increase fall?\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/1005414032\">\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">老虎锐评 </p>\n<p class=\"h-time smaller\">2023-01-10 21:55</p>\n</div>\n</a>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><html><head></head><body><b>December CPI Estimates</b></p><p>Since last Friday, the market has been trading with obvious macro signs. What is called market trading has obvious macro signs, that is to say, there is no logic in the rise and fall of the stock market, but the trading logic of other assets is very strong, and when the stock market suddenly rises or falls, it happens to be when the prices of other macro assets change drastically.</p><p>In order of importance, the decisive factor for the U.S. rate hike resolution is now \"<b>CPI data > Powell on an occasion > Other Fed members on an occasion > FOMC meeting</b>”。 The least interesting thing to watch is the FOMC meeting. Of course, I have to watch it because I am afraid that the Fed will thunder.</p><p>The CPI data of the United States in December has not yet come out, but the CPI data of the European Union has come out. According to Bloomberg data, the EU's CPI data in December fell further from high levels. The figure below shows the CPI of the United States (blue line) and the European Union (white line), which are closely related. Careful people will find that the EU CPI seems to rise and fall later than that of the United States. The core reason for this lies in the energy part.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1da9c1b458f4ae27c6343845d3c362a0\" tg-width=\"1599\" tg-height=\"815\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>The chart below shows the growth rate of the energy component of the US CPI, which peaked in June last year.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4178d5d5316c92b4cc480c2901621104\" tg-width=\"947\" tg-height=\"560\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>However, the energy part of the EU CPI only began to fall in October last year. This difference is also consistent with common sense. The United States has stronger energy independence and the EU has stronger energy dependence.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b0c7e4429e60cbcb22e9dd75ddad726c\" tg-width=\"1866\" tg-height=\"815\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>The further decline of the EU's CPI in December implies that the United States will also fall. What is the CPI of 12 in the United States? I'll estimate it today.</p><p>The first part is energy. The year-on-year growth in November is still 13%, but according to the average price of gasoline, the year-on-year growth in December will be negative, which means that the price of gasoline in December 2022 is higher than that in December 2021. Gasoline prices are still cheap, with a year-on-year increase of about-1%. Considering that there are some service parts in the energy part, the price is sticky to a certain extent, and the year-on-year growth of energy is only about 3%. The chart below shows gasoline prices in the United States, and the red box is December.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/02408072b8cc9d2d908fb63026ce78fe\" tg-width=\"1866\" tg-height=\"815\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>The second part is food (the picture below shows the index of food), which belongs to the relatively stubborn part of inflation. At present, inflation has begun to slow down month-on-month. Let's deal with it mathematically here. Using the month-on-month increase in November to estimate the food index in December, then the year-on-year growth of the food part in December is 10%, which is similar to the year-on-year growth of 10.6% in November.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/89390ae120d8aad75d80c8a7084b1f26\" tg-width=\"926\" tg-height=\"560\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>For Part III (Goods) and Part IV (Services), the treatment is similar to that of food. The year-on-year growth of goods will be 2%, down from 3.7% in November; The year-on-year growth of services will be 7%, slightly higher than the 6.8% in November. The decline in commodity prices is obvious to all, so it may actually be lower than 2%. The year-on-year growth of services is still sticky, and the rent contributes the most. Judging from the actual experience now, the rent has indeed not fallen.</p><p><b>Finally, the four parts of the forecast are put on their respective weight coefficients, and the inflation forecast in December is 6.0%. At present, the average expectation of Wall Street analysts is 6.5%, and mine is 0.5% lower than their expectation.</b>Note that my estimates are actually conservative, because the month-on-month growth of food, goods and services has become smaller and smaller in the past four months, and I apply the month-on-month growth in November to estimate the number in December, which is very conservative. The figure below shows the index and month-on-month growth of these three parts in the past four months, and the trend of weakening month-on-month is obvious.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/241911f59afe4f641417c5dd98836505\" tg-width=\"321\" tg-height=\"181\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Thursday's numbers won't be ugly.</p><p><i>Disclaimer: It is not a research report, for informational purposes only, and does not constitute any investment advice.</i></p><p></body></html></p>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/df74a3173019df9d7cecb61fc0d78eea","relate_stocks":{".DJI":"道琼斯"},"source_url":"","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1185461473","content_text":"12月CPI预估从上周五开始，市场的交易有着很明显的宏观迹象。什么叫做市场的交易有着很明显的宏观迹象，就是说股市的上涨下跌没有逻辑可言，但是其它资产的交易逻辑性非常强，而股市突然上涨或者下跌的时候，恰好是其它宏观资产价格剧烈变化的时候。按照重要性排序，现在对于美国加息决议的决定因素是“CPI数据 >鲍威尔在某个场合的讲话 >其他美联储成员在某个场合的讲话 > FOMC会议”。最没有看头的反而是FOMC会议，当然也不得不看，因为害怕美联储会放雷。12月美国的CPI数据还没出来，但是欧盟的CPI数据出来了。根据彭博的数据，欧盟12月的CPI数据进一步高位下降。下图是美国（蓝线）和欧盟（白线）的CPI，两者关系非常紧密。细心的人会发现欧盟CPI冲高回落似乎比美国晚，这里面的核心原因在于能源部分。下图是美国CPI中能源部分的增长率，是去年6月见顶。但是欧盟CPI的能源部分，是去年10月才开始回落。这个差异和常识也相互吻合，美国的能源独立性更强，欧盟的能源依赖性更强。欧盟12月的CPI进一步回落暗示了美国也会回落，那美国12的CPI具体是多少呢？我今天来估算一下。第一个部分是能源，11月的同比增长还是13%，但是根据汽油的平均价格来看，12月的同比增长会是负数，也就是说2022年12月的汽油价格比2021年12月的汽油价格还便宜，大概同比增长是-1%。考虑到能源部分中还有一些服务部分，价格具有一定的粘滞性，能源的同比增长大概只有3%。下图是美国的汽油价格，红框是12月。第二部分是食物（下图是食物的指数），是属于通胀比较顽固的部分，目前通胀的环比开始放缓。这里数学处理一下，沿用11月的环比增幅来估计12月的食物指数，那么12月的食物部分的同比增长是10%，这个和11月的食物同比增长10.6%相近。对于第三部分（商品）和第四部分（服务），均采用和食物类似的处理方式。商品的同比增长将会是2%，低于11月的3.7%；服务的同比增长将会是7%，略微高于11月的6.8%。商品价格的回落有目共睹，所以实际可能比2%更低。服务的同比增长依然具有粘性，这里面房租的贡献最大，从现在的实际感受来看，房租确实没有回落。最后把预估的4部分套上各自的权重系数，那么12月的通胀预估是6.0%。目前华尔街分析师的预期均值是6.5%，我的比他们的预期要低0.5%。注意，我的预估其实都是偏保守，因为食物、商品和服务的环比增长在过去4个月都是越来越小，而我套用的是11月的环比增长来预估12月的数，很保守。下图是这3部分过去4个月的指数以及环比增长，环比变弱的趋势明显。周四的数字不会难看。免责声明：非研究报告，仅供参考，不构成任何投资建议。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{".DJI":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2811,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9959129659,"gmtCreate":1672932276671,"gmtModify":1676538759677,"author":{"id":"3576729709142650","authorId":"3576729709142650","name":"Sunc","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/12ea94f8a6bfc2835bf320bed8216f7d","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3576729709142650","idStr":"3576729709142650"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"ok","listText":"ok","text":"ok","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9959129659","repostId":"1158940630","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1158940630","kind":"news","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"为用户提供金融资讯、行情、数据，旨在帮助投资者理解世界，做投资决策。","home_visible":1,"media_name":"老虎资讯综合","id":"102","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba"},"pubTimestamp":1672929021,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1158940630?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2023-01-05 22:30","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"Opening | The three major U.S. stock indexes have a collective open low, and popular Chinese concept stocks have fallen","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1158940630","media":"老虎资讯综合","summary":"1月5日，美股三大指数集体低开，道琼斯指数开盘下跌174.84点，跌幅0.53%，报33094.93点；纳斯达克综合指数开盘下跌74.69点，跌幅0.71%，报10384.07点；标普500指数开盘下","content":"<p><html><head></head><body>On January 5, the three major U.S. stock indexes collectively held an open low. The Dow Jones Index opened down 174.84 points, or 0.53%, to 33094.93 points; The Nasdaq Composite Index opened down 74.69 points, or 0.71%, to 10384.07 points; The S&P 500 index opened down 29.43 points, or 0.76%, to 3823.54 points.</p><p>Popular Chinese concept stocks fell,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/GOTU\">High Road</a>Fell more than 6%,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/JD\">JD.com</a>Fell more than 3%,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BABA\">Alibaba</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BIDU\">Baidu</a>Fell nearly 3%.</p><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BBBY\">3B Home</a>It fell more than 23%, the largest intraday decline since August last year. It previously stated that it could not submit the 10Q quarterly report on time and was considering relevant options including bankruptcy relief.</p><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/WDC\">Western Digital</a>It rose more than 2%. People familiar with the matter said Western Digital had restarted negotiations on a merger deal with Japanese company Kioxia.</p><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/SI\">Silvergate</a>It plunged 40%, the largest intraday drop in history, amid reports that Silvergate sold $5.2 billion worth of debt securities and planned to lay off about 40% of its workforce.</p><p></body></html></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Opening | The three major U.S. stock indexes have a collective open low, and popular Chinese concept stocks have fallen</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nOpening | The three major U.S. stock indexes have a collective open low, and popular Chinese concept stocks have fallen\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/102\">\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">老虎资讯综合 </p>\n<p class=\"h-time smaller\">2023-01-05 22:30</p>\n</div>\n</a>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><html><head></head><body>On January 5, the three major U.S. stock indexes collectively held an open low. The Dow Jones Index opened down 174.84 points, or 0.53%, to 33094.93 points; The Nasdaq Composite Index opened down 74.69 points, or 0.71%, to 10384.07 points; The S&P 500 index opened down 29.43 points, or 0.76%, to 3823.54 points.</p><p>Popular Chinese concept stocks fell,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/GOTU\">High Road</a>Fell more than 6%,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/JD\">JD.com</a>Fell more than 3%,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BABA\">Alibaba</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BIDU\">Baidu</a>Fell nearly 3%.</p><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BBBY\">3B Home</a>It fell more than 23%, the largest intraday decline since August last year. It previously stated that it could not submit the 10Q quarterly report on time and was considering relevant options including bankruptcy relief.</p><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/WDC\">Western Digital</a>It rose more than 2%. People familiar with the matter said Western Digital had restarted negotiations on a merger deal with Japanese company Kioxia.</p><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/SI\">Silvergate</a>It plunged 40%, the largest intraday drop in history, amid reports that Silvergate sold $5.2 billion worth of debt securities and planned to lay off about 40% of its workforce.</p><p></body></html></p>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ff6e3231d788a5a6d28cf7965385cc7f","relate_stocks":{".SPX":"S&P 500 Index",".DJI":"道琼斯",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite"},"source_url":"","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1158940630","content_text":"1月5日，美股三大指数集体低开，道琼斯指数开盘下跌174.84点，跌幅0.53%，报33094.93点；纳斯达克综合指数开盘下跌74.69点，跌幅0.71%，报10384.07点；标普500指数开盘下跌29.43点，跌幅0.76%，报3823.54点。热门中概股走低，高途跌逾6%，京东跌超3%，阿里巴巴、百度跌近3%。3B家居跌超23%，创去年8月以来最大盘中跌幅，此前表示无法按时提交10Q季度报表，且正在考虑包括破产救济的相关选项。西部数据涨逾2%，知情人士称西部数据已经重启与日本公司铠侠的合并交易谈判。Silvergate重挫40%，创历史最大盘中跌幅，报道称Silvergate出售价值52亿美元的债权证券，并计划裁员约40%。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{".DJI":0.9,".IXIC":0.9,".SPX":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2458,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9927193622,"gmtCreate":1672413582066,"gmtModify":1676538688068,"author":{"id":"3576729709142650","authorId":"3576729709142650","name":"Sunc","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/12ea94f8a6bfc2835bf320bed8216f7d","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3576729709142650","idStr":"3576729709142650"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"ok","listText":"ok","text":"ok","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9927193622","repostId":"1161296820","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1161296820","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1672409292,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1161296820?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2022-12-30 22:08","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"This year is one of the worst wealth losses in 100 years","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1161296820","media":"华尔街见闻","summary":"高通胀还在继续，基金经理们的2023年又该如何应对？","content":"<p><html><head></head><body>Author: Ge Jiaming</p><p>The year 2022 ended amid an intensive rate hike by central banks to fight inflation.</p><p>Both the stock market and bonds have suffered unexpected \"crit\", and asset management companies are struggling to cope with the most difficult year in 100 years.<b>Since risks cannot be hedged, funds cannot find a \"safe haven\",</b>Most standard investment methods, which combine stocks and fixed assets, have suffered considerable losses this year.</p><p>Equity hedge funds have fallen an average of 9.7% this year and are on track for their worst annual returns since the 2008 financial crisis, according to data from HFR.</p><p>Renaud de Planta, head of Pictet, a Swiss multinational private banking and financial services company, said<b>This year is one of the worst wealth losses in nearly 100 years, and many private investors may lose more than a quarter of their real wealth after inflation adjustment</b>：</p><p>The company manages about $635 billion in assets. Take the simplest investment portfolio-bonds and stocks, for example. Stocks and bonds around the world have basically experienced double-digit declines this year. The two asset classes can often be balanced out by hedging, and this year has seen one of the worst wealth shrinkage in 100 years. According to the media, Stéphane Monier, chief investment officer of Swiss private bank Lombard Odier, said in an interview that 2022 is the year since 1926<b>The only three years in which both stocks and bonds have had \"significantly negative returns\".</b>The MSCI World Index, which tracks global stock markets, has fallen by 14% since January, while the Bloomberg Fixed Income Index has also fallen by more than 10%.</p><p>According to research by Asset Risk Consultants (ARC), by tracking the investment returns of more than 100 large UK asset management companies this year, as of December 15, the investment portfolios of UK asset management company clients were adjusted for inflation.<b>The average loss is nearly 20%</b>。</p><p>Inflation aside, portfolios have lost an average of 10% this year, said ARC chief Graham Harrison<b>Investors this year have little chance of avoiding losses</b>：</p><p>With the exception of energy and commodities, almost all asset classes are falling, and investors have little chance of avoiding losses. The U.S. bond market recorded its biggest decline in decades, with the yield on the U.S. two-year Treasury Bond soaring from 0.7% to 4.3%, and the yield on the 10-year Treasury Bond jumping from 1.5% at the end of 2021 to more than 3.8%. Since the beginning of this year, British Treasury Bond have risen by more than 250%. Without warning, the Bank of Japan made a surprise turn in December, sending the yield on Japan's 10-year Treasury Bond soaring 21 basis points to 0.467%, the highest since 2015.</p><p>The tragedy also happened in the global stock market. Except for the British FTSE 100, which also rose by 1.74%, the major stock indexes of developed markets around the world all fell. The Nasdaq fell by 33.03% during the year, the German DAX fell by 11.41%, and the Nikkei 225 fell by 9.37%. France CAC40 fell 8.1%.</p><p>Fund managers have to look for assets that are not related to stocks and bonds. Monier said,<b>Hedge funds that benefit from volatility can earn decent returns on investment this year. Many fund managers said that they have increased their holdings of commodities and increased the proportion of gold in commodities.</b></p><p>Monier said conventional wisdom is that bond-focused strategies lose less during market downturns. However,<b>Many fixed-income-heavy portfolios have underperformed equity-heavy options investments this year</b>：</p><p>The highest inflation rate in decades, along with rising interest rates, is a particularly problematic combination for bonds. Media analysis pointed out that this year's unstable situation also requires fund managers to spend a lot of time face-to-face with customers to prevent them from panicking and fleeing. Peter McLean, CEO of wealth management firm Stonehage Fleming, said that they have engaged more with clients this year than in previous years:</p><p>We have to give an explanation of what happened, why it happened and what changes will be made in the future at an appropriate time. The sudden surge in inflation presents a particular challenge for asset managers, and one they haven't faced in decades.</p><p>And now, inflation is still close to 10%, meaning managers will also start 2023 far behind and need to deliver better results to break even.</p><p></body></html></p>","source":"live_wallstreetcn","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>This year is one of the worst wealth losses in 100 years</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nThis year is one of the worst wealth losses in 100 years\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">华尔街见闻</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2022-12-30 22:08</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><html><head></head><body>Author: Ge Jiaming</p><p>The year 2022 ended amid an intensive rate hike by central banks to fight inflation.</p><p>Both the stock market and bonds have suffered unexpected \"crit\", and asset management companies are struggling to cope with the most difficult year in 100 years.<b>Since risks cannot be hedged, funds cannot find a \"safe haven\",</b>Most standard investment methods, which combine stocks and fixed assets, have suffered considerable losses this year.</p><p>Equity hedge funds have fallen an average of 9.7% this year and are on track for their worst annual returns since the 2008 financial crisis, according to data from HFR.</p><p>Renaud de Planta, head of Pictet, a Swiss multinational private banking and financial services company, said<b>This year is one of the worst wealth losses in nearly 100 years, and many private investors may lose more than a quarter of their real wealth after inflation adjustment</b>：</p><p>The company manages about $635 billion in assets. Take the simplest investment portfolio-bonds and stocks, for example. Stocks and bonds around the world have basically experienced double-digit declines this year. The two asset classes can often be balanced out by hedging, and this year has seen one of the worst wealth shrinkage in 100 years. According to the media, Stéphane Monier, chief investment officer of Swiss private bank Lombard Odier, said in an interview that 2022 is the year since 1926<b>The only three years in which both stocks and bonds have had \"significantly negative returns\".</b>The MSCI World Index, which tracks global stock markets, has fallen by 14% since January, while the Bloomberg Fixed Income Index has also fallen by more than 10%.</p><p>According to research by Asset Risk Consultants (ARC), by tracking the investment returns of more than 100 large UK asset management companies this year, as of December 15, the investment portfolios of UK asset management company clients were adjusted for inflation.<b>The average loss is nearly 20%</b>。</p><p>Inflation aside, portfolios have lost an average of 10% this year, said ARC chief Graham Harrison<b>Investors this year have little chance of avoiding losses</b>：</p><p>With the exception of energy and commodities, almost all asset classes are falling, and investors have little chance of avoiding losses. The U.S. bond market recorded its biggest decline in decades, with the yield on the U.S. two-year Treasury Bond soaring from 0.7% to 4.3%, and the yield on the 10-year Treasury Bond jumping from 1.5% at the end of 2021 to more than 3.8%. Since the beginning of this year, British Treasury Bond have risen by more than 250%. Without warning, the Bank of Japan made a surprise turn in December, sending the yield on Japan's 10-year Treasury Bond soaring 21 basis points to 0.467%, the highest since 2015.</p><p>The tragedy also happened in the global stock market. Except for the British FTSE 100, which also rose by 1.74%, the major stock indexes of developed markets around the world all fell. The Nasdaq fell by 33.03% during the year, the German DAX fell by 11.41%, and the Nikkei 225 fell by 9.37%. France CAC40 fell 8.1%.</p><p>Fund managers have to look for assets that are not related to stocks and bonds. Monier said,<b>Hedge funds that benefit from volatility can earn decent returns on investment this year. Many fund managers said that they have increased their holdings of commodities and increased the proportion of gold in commodities.</b></p><p>Monier said conventional wisdom is that bond-focused strategies lose less during market downturns. However,<b>Many fixed-income-heavy portfolios have underperformed equity-heavy options investments this year</b>：</p><p>The highest inflation rate in decades, along with rising interest rates, is a particularly problematic combination for bonds. Media analysis pointed out that this year's unstable situation also requires fund managers to spend a lot of time face-to-face with customers to prevent them from panicking and fleeing. Peter McLean, CEO of wealth management firm Stonehage Fleming, said that they have engaged more with clients this year than in previous years:</p><p>We have to give an explanation of what happened, why it happened and what changes will be made in the future at an appropriate time. The sudden surge in inflation presents a particular challenge for asset managers, and one they haven't faced in decades.</p><p>And now, inflation is still close to 10%, meaning managers will also start 2023 far behind and need to deliver better results to break even.</p><p></body></html></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> source：<a href=\"https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3678748\">华尔街见闻</a></p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e8de43451c68f57a0fdb81f66644722a","relate_stocks":{".DJI":"道琼斯"},"source_url":"https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3678748","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/cc96873d3d23ee6ac10685520df9c100","article_id":"1161296820","content_text":"作者：葛佳明2022年在各国央行为抗击通胀的密集加息中落幕。股市和债券都遭遇了始料未及的“暴击”，资管公司正在努力应对100年以来最难熬的一年，由于风险无法对冲，资金找不到“避风港”，多数以股票和固定资产为组合的标准投资方式在今年都遭遇了不小的损失。根据HFR的数据，股票对冲基金今年平均下跌9.7%，有望创自2008年金融危机以来最差的年度回报率。瑞士跨国私人银行和金融服务公司Pictet负责人Renaud de Planta称今年是近100年来财富损失最严重的年份之一，许多私人投资者的实际财富在经通胀调整后，损失或将超过四分之一：公司管理着约6350亿美元的资产，拿最简单的一个投资组合——债券和股票来举例。今年全球的股票和债券基本都出现了两位数的跌幅。这两种资产类别通常可以对冲来平衡，今年是100年来财富缩水最严重的年份之一。媒体称，瑞士私人银行 Lombard Odier 的首席投资官 Stéphane Monier在接受采访时表示，2022 年是自1926 年以来仅有的三年股票和债券均出现“明显负回报”的年份。追踪全球股市的MSCI世界指数自1月以来下跌了14%，而彭博固定收益指数下跌也超10%。根据Asset Risk Consultants (ARC)的研究，通过跟踪英国100多家大型资管公司今年以来的投资回报，截至12月15日，英国资管公司客户们的投资组合经通胀调整后，平均损失近20%。ARC表示，撇开通涨不看，今年的投资组合平均损失10%，ARC负责人Graham Harrison表示今年的投资者几乎没有避免损失的机会：除了能源和大宗商品，几乎所有类别的资产都在下跌，投资者几乎没有避免损失的机会。美国债券市场创下了数十年来的最大跌幅，美国两年期国债收益率从0.7%飙升至 4.3%，十年期国债收益率已从2021年底的1.5%跃升至超3.8%。今年以来英国国债涨超250%。没有任何预兆，日本央行12月出人意料地转向，使得日本10年期国债收益率飙升21个基点至0.467％，为2015年以来最高。惨状也同样发生在全球股市，除英国富时100也累计上涨1.74%，全球发达市场主要股指均下跌，纳斯达克年内累计下跌33.03%，德国DAX跌11.41%，日经225跌9.37%，法国CAC40跌8.1%。基金经理们不得不寻找与股票和债券不相关的资产。Monier表示，从波动性中获益的对冲基金，可以在今年获得不错的投资回报率。不少基金经理们表示，他们已增持大宗商品，同时增加黄金在大宗商品的比例。Monier称，传统观点认为，债券为主的策略在市场低迷期间损失较小。然而，许多以固定收益为主的投资组合今年的表现不如以股票为主的期权投资：几十年来最高的通胀率，以及不断攀升的利率，对债券来说是一个特别有问题的组合。媒体分析指出，今年不稳定的情况还要求基金经理们花大量的时间与客户面对面，以防止客户们恐慌出逃。财富管理公司Stonehage Fleming的CEO Peter McLean称，他们今年与客户进行了比以往几年更多的接触：我们不得不对发生的事情、发生的原因以及将在未来适当的时候做出哪些改变进行解释。通胀的突然飙升给资管公司带来了特殊的挑战，也是他们几十年来从未面对过的挑战。而现在，通货膨胀率仍然接近10%，意味着经理们2023年的开局也将远远落后，需要提供更好的业绩才能实现收支平衡。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{".DJI":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":3048,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9924735156,"gmtCreate":1672327434975,"gmtModify":1676538673250,"author":{"id":"3576729709142650","authorId":"3576729709142650","name":"Sunc","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/12ea94f8a6bfc2835bf320bed8216f7d","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3576729709142650","idStr":"3576729709142650"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"ok","listText":"ok","text":"ok","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9924735156","repostId":"1184536778","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1184536778","kind":"news","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"Providing stock market headlines, business news, financials and earnings ","home_visible":1,"media_name":"Tiger Newspress","id":"1079075236","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba"},"pubTimestamp":1672325074,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1184536778?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2022-12-29 22:44","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Chinese EV ADRs Gained in Morning Trading, With XPeng and Li Auto Rising Over 6%","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1184536778","media":"Tiger Newspress","summary":"Chinese EV ADRs gained in morning trading. Li Auto, XPeng rose over 6%; Nio rose over 4%.\"The market","content":"<html><head></head><body><p>Chinese EV ADRs gained in morning trading. Li Auto, XPeng rose over 6%; Nio rose over 4%.</p><p>&#34;The market has recently worried about the impact of China&#39;s Covid policy adjustment on the demand and supply of NEVs. We believe that the overall impact is limited,&#34; CICC analyst Deng Xue&#39;s team wrote in a research note.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5bbe6ce87f0d2a51cad96247a7bcd58f\" tg-width=\"399\" tg-height=\"226\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>On the demand side, the Covid infection since December did have some impact on sales of NEVs, mainly in terms of consumer visits to stores, the team said.</p><p>In addition, some salespeople have been affected, the team said, adding that these factors can create some disruption in the acquisition of new orders.</p></body></html>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Chinese EV ADRs Gained in Morning Trading, With XPeng and Li Auto Rising Over 6%</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nChinese EV ADRs Gained in Morning Trading, With XPeng and Li Auto Rising Over 6%\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/1079075236\">\n\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">Tiger Newspress </p>\n<p class=\"h-time\">2022-12-29 22:44</p>\n</div>\n\n</a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<html><head></head><body><p>Chinese EV ADRs gained in morning trading. Li Auto, XPeng rose over 6%; Nio rose over 4%.</p><p>&#34;The market has recently worried about the impact of China&#39;s Covid policy adjustment on the demand and supply of NEVs. We believe that the overall impact is limited,&#34; CICC analyst Deng Xue&#39;s team wrote in a research note.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5bbe6ce87f0d2a51cad96247a7bcd58f\" tg-width=\"399\" tg-height=\"226\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>On the demand side, the Covid infection since December did have some impact on sales of NEVs, mainly in terms of consumer visits to stores, the team said.</p><p>In addition, some salespeople have been affected, the team said, adding that these factors can create some disruption in the acquisition of new orders.</p></body></html>\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"LI":"理想汽车","XPEV":"小鹏汽车","NIO":"蔚来"},"source_url":"","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1184536778","content_text":"Chinese EV ADRs gained in morning trading. Li Auto, XPeng rose over 6%; Nio rose over 4%.\"The market has recently worried about the impact of China's Covid policy adjustment on the demand and supply of NEVs. We believe that the overall impact is limited,\" CICC analyst Deng Xue's team wrote in a research note.On the demand side, the Covid infection since December did have some impact on sales of NEVs, mainly in terms of consumer visits to stores, the team said.In addition, some salespeople have been affected, the team said, adding that these factors can create some disruption in the acquisition of new orders.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"LI":0.9,"XPEV":0.9,"NIO":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2735,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9924732977,"gmtCreate":1672327284300,"gmtModify":1676538673198,"author":{"id":"3576729709142650","authorId":"3576729709142650","name":"Sunc","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/12ea94f8a6bfc2835bf320bed8216f7d","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3576729709142650","idStr":"3576729709142650"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"ok","listText":"ok","text":"ok","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9924732977","repostId":"1117624391","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1117624391","kind":"news","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"Providing stock market headlines, business news, financials and earnings ","home_visible":1,"media_name":"Tiger Newspress","id":"1079075236","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba"},"pubTimestamp":1672325904,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1117624391?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2022-12-29 22:58","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Crypto Stocks Rose in Morning Trading, With Coinbase Stock Jumping Over 6%","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1117624391","media":"Tiger Newspress","summary":"Crypto stocks rose in morning trading.Bit Digital rose over 9%; The9 rose over 7%; Coinbase, SOS Lim","content":"<html><head></head><body><p>Crypto stocks rose in morning trading.</p><p>Bit Digital rose over 9%; The9 rose over 7%; Coinbase, SOS Limited rose over 6%.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7597446a6b98ae1f6b063e09569dca37\" tg-width=\"472\" tg-height=\"600\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p></body></html>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Crypto Stocks Rose in Morning Trading, With Coinbase Stock Jumping Over 6%</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nCrypto Stocks Rose in Morning Trading, With Coinbase Stock Jumping Over 6%\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/1079075236\">\n\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">Tiger Newspress </p>\n<p class=\"h-time\">2022-12-29 22:58</p>\n</div>\n\n</a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<html><head></head><body><p>Crypto stocks rose in morning trading.</p><p>Bit Digital rose over 9%; The9 rose over 7%; Coinbase, SOS Limited rose over 6%.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7597446a6b98ae1f6b063e09569dca37\" tg-width=\"472\" tg-height=\"600\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p></body></html>\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"NCTY":"第九城市","COIN":"Coinbase Global, Inc."},"source_url":"","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1117624391","content_text":"Crypto stocks rose in morning trading.Bit Digital rose over 9%; The9 rose over 7%; Coinbase, SOS Limited rose over 6%.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"COIN":0.9,"NCTY":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2494,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9924638527,"gmtCreate":1672239713969,"gmtModify":1676538657994,"author":{"id":"3576729709142650","authorId":"3576729709142650","name":"Sunc","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/12ea94f8a6bfc2835bf320bed8216f7d","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3576729709142650","idStr":"3576729709142650"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"ok","listText":"ok","text":"ok","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9924638527","repostId":"1119468919","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1119468919","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1672235608,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1119468919?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2022-12-28 21:53","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"How many \"black swans\" will there be next year? These are a few things investors are worried about most","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1119468919","media":"华尔街见闻","summary":"今年十分坎坷的市场表现仍令投资者心有余悸。","content":"<p><html><head></head><body>Author: Zhu Xueying</p><p>After experiencing the worst stock market since 2008 and the epic bond market plunge since the beginning of this century, the S&P 500 index, the Dow Jones index and the Nasdaq index fell by 8.5%, 19.7% and 33.8% respectively. Everyone waves goodbye.</p><p>But even so, this year's very bumpy market performance still leaves investors with lingering fears, worried about whether there will be some \"black swan\" events in 2023, which will stir up the situation again.</p><p><b>These include deep-rooted inflation fever, an approaching recession, a continued rise in the US dollar, setbacks in emerging markets, an escalating conflict between Russia and Ukraine, and corporate profits facing a storm.</b></p><p>High inflation persists</p><p>According to the media, Matthew McLennan, co-head of the global value team at the investment institution First Eagle Investment Management, recently said that although \"the bond market expects inflation to smoothly return to the normal range within 12 months,\" this statement may have made a big mistake.</p><p>He said,<b>Supply-side pressures such as wage growth and rising energy costs may continue to push up inflation, which is a real risk factor.</b></p><p>This may rule out the possibility that the Federal Reserve and the European Central Bank will turn to interest rate cuts in the middle of next year, which may cause a double kill of stocks and bonds, a strengthening of the US dollar, and another critical blow to emerging markets.</p><p>McLennan believes:</p><p>The Fed didn't anticipate high inflation, and in their fight against inflation, perhaps didn't anticipate financial events... the Fed probably underestimated the risk of a financial crisis. Recession Haze Comes</p><p>At present, the biggest worry haunting investors' minds is whether the economy will fall into recession next year.</p><p>Once the recession starts, the stock market may continue to decline.<b>Historical data shows that a bear market never bottoms out until a recession really begins.</b></p><p>Since World War II, the S&P 500 has lost an average of 29% during recessions, according to consultancy Truist Advisory Services.</p><p>The dollar continues to move higher</p><p>Looking back on 2022, the surge in the US dollar has caused significant losses in the performance of many US companies. By the end of the third quarter, 1,200 large companies in the United States and Europe will lose more than $60 billion in sales due to sharp foreign exchange fluctuations this year.</p><p>Although the US dollar has given up its previous gains in recent weeks, it is still unclear whether it can continue to decline.<b>Depends on whether subsequent investors think the Fed has a tougher stance relative to other central banks.</b></p><p>Emerging market setbacks</p><p>Many investors currently expect that the slowdown in the US dollar trend and falling energy costs in 2023 may jointly ease the pressure on emerging markets.</p><p>However, some analysts believe that,<b>Once global efforts to curb inflation come to naught, investors' beautiful vision may become a \"mirror\".</b>For example, once the conflict between Russia and Ukraine escalates, energy prices may soar again.</p><p>Shane Oliver, head of investment strategy and economics at financial services firm AMP, said:</p><p>Emerging markets may continue to struggle in 2023 again. The dollar remains high and may continue to rise, which will adversely affect emerging markets, because many countries have a large amount of dollar debt. David Folkerts-Landau, chief economist at Deutsche Bank, said:</p><p>The economic downturn and aggressive monetary tightening policies, coupled with the resulting geopolitical conflicts and commodity shocks, will cause pain to finance and emerging markets in a short time. Russia-Ukraine conflict escalates</p><p>The conflict between Russia and Ukraine, which continued to dominate the global capital market situation in the first half of this year, also made it difficult for investors to easily let go. John Vail, global market strategist at Nikko Asset Management, said:</p><p>If the conflict escalates and the West increases sanctions, it may have quite adverse effects. Vail believes:</p><p>The conflict will have a serious impact on the global supply of food, energy, fertilizers, some metals and chemicals. Corporate profits face the storm</p><p>Investors are worried that the current corporate earnings forecast may not fully account for the potential recession risk, so the stock market still has a lot of room to fall.</p><p>According to data from IBES, a subsidiary of data analysis firm Refinitiv, analysts generally expect the revenue of S&P 500-listed companies to grow by 4.4% next year, but according to data from research firm Ned Davis Research, corporate revenue will fall by 24% during the economic recession.%.</p><p>In a report at the end of November, JPMorgan expected S&P 500-listed companies to earn $205 per share next year, down 9% from their earlier forecast of $225. At the same time, it is pointed out that the decline of consumer and business spending has put increasing pressure on corporate profits.</p><p></body></html></p>","source":"live_wallstreetcn","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>How many \"black swans\" will there be next year? These are a few things investors are worried about most</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nHow many \"black swans\" will there be next year? These are a few things investors are worried about most\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">华尔街见闻</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2022-12-28 21:53</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><html><head></head><body>Author: Zhu Xueying</p><p>After experiencing the worst stock market since 2008 and the epic bond market plunge since the beginning of this century, the S&P 500 index, the Dow Jones index and the Nasdaq index fell by 8.5%, 19.7% and 33.8% respectively. Everyone waves goodbye.</p><p>But even so, this year's very bumpy market performance still leaves investors with lingering fears, worried about whether there will be some \"black swan\" events in 2023, which will stir up the situation again.</p><p><b>These include deep-rooted inflation fever, an approaching recession, a continued rise in the US dollar, setbacks in emerging markets, an escalating conflict between Russia and Ukraine, and corporate profits facing a storm.</b></p><p>High inflation persists</p><p>According to the media, Matthew McLennan, co-head of the global value team at the investment institution First Eagle Investment Management, recently said that although \"the bond market expects inflation to smoothly return to the normal range within 12 months,\" this statement may have made a big mistake.</p><p>He said,<b>Supply-side pressures such as wage growth and rising energy costs may continue to push up inflation, which is a real risk factor.</b></p><p>This may rule out the possibility that the Federal Reserve and the European Central Bank will turn to interest rate cuts in the middle of next year, which may cause a double kill of stocks and bonds, a strengthening of the US dollar, and another critical blow to emerging markets.</p><p>McLennan believes:</p><p>The Fed didn't anticipate high inflation, and in their fight against inflation, perhaps didn't anticipate financial events... the Fed probably underestimated the risk of a financial crisis. Recession Haze Comes</p><p>At present, the biggest worry haunting investors' minds is whether the economy will fall into recession next year.</p><p>Once the recession starts, the stock market may continue to decline.<b>Historical data shows that a bear market never bottoms out until a recession really begins.</b></p><p>Since World War II, the S&P 500 has lost an average of 29% during recessions, according to consultancy Truist Advisory Services.</p><p>The dollar continues to move higher</p><p>Looking back on 2022, the surge in the US dollar has caused significant losses in the performance of many US companies. By the end of the third quarter, 1,200 large companies in the United States and Europe will lose more than $60 billion in sales due to sharp foreign exchange fluctuations this year.</p><p>Although the US dollar has given up its previous gains in recent weeks, it is still unclear whether it can continue to decline.<b>Depends on whether subsequent investors think the Fed has a tougher stance relative to other central banks.</b></p><p>Emerging market setbacks</p><p>Many investors currently expect that the slowdown in the US dollar trend and falling energy costs in 2023 may jointly ease the pressure on emerging markets.</p><p>However, some analysts believe that,<b>Once global efforts to curb inflation come to naught, investors' beautiful vision may become a \"mirror\".</b>For example, once the conflict between Russia and Ukraine escalates, energy prices may soar again.</p><p>Shane Oliver, head of investment strategy and economics at financial services firm AMP, said:</p><p>Emerging markets may continue to struggle in 2023 again. The dollar remains high and may continue to rise, which will adversely affect emerging markets, because many countries have a large amount of dollar debt. David Folkerts-Landau, chief economist at Deutsche Bank, said:</p><p>The economic downturn and aggressive monetary tightening policies, coupled with the resulting geopolitical conflicts and commodity shocks, will cause pain to finance and emerging markets in a short time. Russia-Ukraine conflict escalates</p><p>The conflict between Russia and Ukraine, which continued to dominate the global capital market situation in the first half of this year, also made it difficult for investors to easily let go. John Vail, global market strategist at Nikko Asset Management, said:</p><p>If the conflict escalates and the West increases sanctions, it may have quite adverse effects. Vail believes:</p><p>The conflict will have a serious impact on the global supply of food, energy, fertilizers, some metals and chemicals. Corporate profits face the storm</p><p>Investors are worried that the current corporate earnings forecast may not fully account for the potential recession risk, so the stock market still has a lot of room to fall.</p><p>According to data from IBES, a subsidiary of data analysis firm Refinitiv, analysts generally expect the revenue of S&P 500-listed companies to grow by 4.4% next year, but according to data from research firm Ned Davis Research, corporate revenue will fall by 24% during the economic recession.%.</p><p>In a report at the end of November, JPMorgan expected S&P 500-listed companies to earn $205 per share next year, down 9% from their earlier forecast of $225. At the same time, it is pointed out that the decline of consumer and business spending has put increasing pressure on corporate profits.</p><p></body></html></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> source：<a href=\"https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3678538\">华尔街见闻</a></p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/53207cf65b0b6d3db3393a387da832f7","relate_stocks":{".DJI":"道琼斯"},"source_url":"https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3678538","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/cc96873d3d23ee6ac10685520df9c100","article_id":"1119468919","content_text":"作者：朱雪莹经历2008年以来的最糟股市和本世纪以来史诗级的债市暴跌，其中标普500指数、道琼斯指数和纳斯达克指数分别下挫8.5%、19.7%和33.8%，2022年终于要和大家挥手告别。但即便如此，今年十分坎坷的市场表现仍令投资者心有余悸，担忧2023年是否还会出现若干“黑天鹅”事件，再度搅弄风云。其中包括通胀高烧根深蒂固、经济衰退阴霾逼近、美元继续走高、新兴市场受挫、俄乌冲突升级以及企业利润直面风暴。高企通胀迟迟不退媒体称，投资机构First Eagle Investment Management的全球价值团队联席主管 Matthew McLennan最新表示，虽然“债市预计通胀水平将在12个月内平稳地回归正常区间”，但是这种说法可能犯了一个大错。他对此表示，工资增长和能源成本上涨等供给端压力或将继续推升通胀，这是一个切实存在的风险因素。而这或将排除美联储及欧洲央行在明年年中转向降息的可能性，可能造成股债双杀、美元走强、新兴市场再遭暴击。McLennan认为：美联储没有预料到高企通胀，而在他们抗击通胀的过程中，或许也并没有预计到金融事件的发生......美联储很可能低估了金融危机出现的风险。经济衰退阴霾降临眼下缠绕在投资者心头的最大隐忧，仍是明年经济是否会陷入衰退。而一旦开启衰退，股市或将继续下行。历史数据显示，在衰退真正开始之前，熊市从未触底。根据咨询机构Truist Advisory Services的数据，自二战以来，标普500指数在经济衰退期间平均跌幅为29%。美元继续走高回顾2022年，美元飙升造成众多美国公司业绩出现显著亏损。截至第三季度末，美国和欧洲的1200家大公司将因为今年以来的外汇剧烈波动损失超过600亿美元的销售额。虽然美元在近几周回吐此前涨幅，但是能否继续下行仍尚未可知，取决于后续投资者认为美联储是否相对于其他央行有更强硬的立场。新兴市场受挫目前许多投资者预计，2023年美元走势放缓及能源成本下降或将共同缓解新兴市场的压力。然而有分析认为，一旦全球遏制通胀的努力化为泡影都或将令投资者的美好愿景变成“镜花水月”，比如一旦俄乌冲突升级或将导致能源价格再度飙升。金融服务机构AMP的投资策略和经济主管Shane Oliver表示：新兴市场可能又要在2023年继续挣扎。美元仍处高位且或将继续上行，这会对新兴市场造成不利影响，因为许多国家都拥有大量美元债。德意志银行首席经济学家David Folkerts-Landau表示：经济低迷、激进的货币紧缩政策，叠加由此引发的地缘政治冲突和大宗商品冲击，将在短时间内给金融和新兴市场造成痛苦。俄乌冲突升级今年上半年持续主导全球资本市场局势的俄乌冲突也让投资者难以轻松放下，对此日兴资产管理公司的席全球市场策略师John Vail表示：如果冲突升级，西方加大制裁力度，或将造成相当不利的影响。Vail认为：冲突将对全球粮食、能源、化肥、部分金属及化学品等的供应造成严重冲击。企业利润直面风暴投资者担忧，目前的企业盈利预计可能并没有完全计入潜在的经济衰退风险，因此股市仍留有不少下跌空间。按照数据分析机构Refinitiv旗下IBES的数据，分析师普遍预计明年标普500指数上市公司的收入将增长4.4%，但是从研究机构Ned Davis Research的数据来看，在经济衰退期间，企业收入将下降24%。小摩在11月底的报告中预计，标普500指数上市公司明年的每股收益为205美元，较早前预测的225美元下降9% 。同时指出，消费者和企业支出下降，对企业利润构成了越来越大的压力。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{".DJI":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":3172,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9924909811,"gmtCreate":1672150647533,"gmtModify":1676538642439,"author":{"id":"3576729709142650","authorId":"3576729709142650","name":"Sunc","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/12ea94f8a6bfc2835bf320bed8216f7d","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3576729709142650","idStr":"3576729709142650"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"ok","listText":"ok","text":"ok","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9924909811","repostId":"1149804865","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1149804865","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1672142424,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1149804865?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2022-12-27 20:00","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"Tech giants' performance expectations have been lowered, including Apple and Amazon","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1149804865","media":"英为财情","summary":"多位分析师下调了对主要科技公司的预估，以纳入持续的宏观逆风因素。","content":"<p><html><head></head><body>Morgan Stanley's U.S. equity strategists issued a research report last week warning that stocks may move lower next, dragged down by negative estimate revisions.</p><p>Recently, several analysts have lowered their estimates for major tech companies to incorporate ongoing macro headwinds. For example, Baird analysts lowered their 2023 expectations and price targets for Internet stocks, including Amazon, Alphabet and Meta Platforms.</p><p>We lowered our 2023 estimates for a range of internet weathervanes, reflecting a slowing post-pandemic recovery in e-commerce and web advertising, as well as expectations for a mild to moderate recession and a weaker labor market, analysts said in the note.While the probability of a deeper economic recession has further declined, we now remain below consensus estimates for ABNB, AMZN, BABA, EBAY, GOOGL, META, PINS, PYPL, and SHOP.</p><p>Analysts' latest price targets for AMZN, GOOGL, and META are $120, $115, and $145 per share, respectively. However, in the medium term, analysts remain bullish on these super-large-cap stocks, and they expect the positive long-term growth trend to eventually resume.</p><p>Meanwhile, analysts at Needham & Company lowered their estimates for Amazon.</p><p>We believe that Amazon's economic model has its own problems. That is, we expect the turnover estimate in fiscal 2022 to remain unchanged at about $510 billion, however the cost will reach nearly $500 billion in fiscal 2022. Therefore, in fiscal 2022, the operating profit generated by 1 million employees will reach about $11 billion for the whole year (operating margin is only 2%).</p><p>Analysts also lowered their performance estimates for Apple, now expecting revenue growth of just 2% in 2023.</p><p>The report reads: We have lowered Apple's forecasts for the first quarter and full fiscal year of fiscal 2023 due to weak global macro consumer demand trends, supply chain shortages, and growing geopolitical pressures between China and the United States, leading to weak iPhone demand in China (historically accounting for about 20% of Apple's sales revenue) in fiscal 2023.</p><p></body></html></p>","source":"ywcq","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Tech giants' performance expectations have been lowered, including Apple and Amazon</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nTech giants' performance expectations have been lowered, including Apple and Amazon\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">英为财情</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2022-12-27 20:00</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><html><head></head><body>Morgan Stanley's U.S. equity strategists issued a research report last week warning that stocks may move lower next, dragged down by negative estimate revisions.</p><p>Recently, several analysts have lowered their estimates for major tech companies to incorporate ongoing macro headwinds. For example, Baird analysts lowered their 2023 expectations and price targets for Internet stocks, including Amazon, Alphabet and Meta Platforms.</p><p>We lowered our 2023 estimates for a range of internet weathervanes, reflecting a slowing post-pandemic recovery in e-commerce and web advertising, as well as expectations for a mild to moderate recession and a weaker labor market, analysts said in the note.While the probability of a deeper economic recession has further declined, we now remain below consensus estimates for ABNB, AMZN, BABA, EBAY, GOOGL, META, PINS, PYPL, and SHOP.</p><p>Analysts' latest price targets for AMZN, GOOGL, and META are $120, $115, and $145 per share, respectively. However, in the medium term, analysts remain bullish on these super-large-cap stocks, and they expect the positive long-term growth trend to eventually resume.</p><p>Meanwhile, analysts at Needham & Company lowered their estimates for Amazon.</p><p>We believe that Amazon's economic model has its own problems. That is, we expect the turnover estimate in fiscal 2022 to remain unchanged at about $510 billion, however the cost will reach nearly $500 billion in fiscal 2022. Therefore, in fiscal 2022, the operating profit generated by 1 million employees will reach about $11 billion for the whole year (operating margin is only 2%).</p><p>Analysts also lowered their performance estimates for Apple, now expecting revenue growth of just 2% in 2023.</p><p>The report reads: We have lowered Apple's forecasts for the first quarter and full fiscal year of fiscal 2023 due to weak global macro consumer demand trends, supply chain shortages, and growing geopolitical pressures between China and the United States, leading to weak iPhone demand in China (historically accounting for about 20% of Apple's sales revenue) in fiscal 2023.</p><p></body></html></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> source：<a href=\"https://cn.investing.com/news/stock-market-news/article-2162590\">英为财情</a></p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9affa90aeb60480d0aba843f0241d9e8","relate_stocks":{"AMZN":"亚马逊","AAPL":"苹果"},"source_url":"https://cn.investing.com/news/stock-market-news/article-2162590","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1149804865","content_text":"摩根士丹利美国股票策略师上周发布研究报告警告，受到负面估计修正的拖累，股市接下来可能走低。近期，多位分析师下调了对主要科技公司的预估，以纳入持续的宏观逆风因素。如Baird分析师下调了互联网股2023年预期和目标价，包括亚马逊、Alphabet和Meta Platforms。分析师在报告中表示，「我们下调了对一系列互联网风向标2023年的预估，反映出电子商务和网络广告在大流行之后的恢复速度放缓，以及对温和到适度的经济衰退和劳动力市场疲软的预期。虽然经济出现更严重衰退的概率进一步下降，但我们现在仍然对ABNB、AMZN、BABA、EBAY、GOOGL、META、PINS、PYPL和SHOP的看法仍然低于一致预期。」分析师对AMZN、GOOGL和META的最新目标价分别为每股120美元、115美元和145美元。不过，中期内，分析师仍然看好这些超级大盘股，他们预计「积极的长期增长趋势终将恢复」。同时，Needham & Company的分析师下调了对亚马逊的预估。「我们认为，亚马逊的经济模式有自己的问题。即我们预计2022财年的营业额估计保持在大约5100亿美元不变，然而成本在2022财年将达到近5000亿美元。因此，在2022财年，100万名员工全年创造的经营利润将达到约110亿美元(经营利润率仅为2%)」分析师还下调了苹果的业绩预估，现在预计2023年的收入增速仅为2%。报告写道：「我们下调了苹果2023财年第一财季和全财年的预期，原因是全球宏观消费需求趋势疲软，供应链短缺，以及中美之间日益加剧的地缘政治压力，导致2023财年中国的iPhone需求疲软(历史上约占苹果销售收入的20%)。」","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"AMZN":0.9,"AAPL":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2927,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9925568135,"gmtCreate":1672067818427,"gmtModify":1676538629417,"author":{"id":"3576729709142650","authorId":"3576729709142650","name":"Sunc","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/12ea94f8a6bfc2835bf320bed8216f7d","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3576729709142650","idStr":"3576729709142650"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"ok","listText":"ok","text":"ok","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9925568135","repostId":"1171674800","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":599,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9925561558,"gmtCreate":1672067774474,"gmtModify":1676538629399,"author":{"id":"3576729709142650","authorId":"3576729709142650","name":"Sunc","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/12ea94f8a6bfc2835bf320bed8216f7d","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3576729709142650","idStr":"3576729709142650"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a 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22:46","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"Cruise stocks rose strongly, Carnival Cruises rose more than 6%","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1130846671","media":"老虎资讯综合","summary":"12月21日，邮轮股盘初大涨，嘉年华邮轮涨超6%，皇家加勒比邮轮涨超4%，挪威邮轮涨超3%。","content":"<p><html><head></head><body>On December 21, cruise stocks rose sharply at the beginning of the session.<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/CCL\">Carnival Cruises</a>Up more than 6%,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/RCL\">Royal Caribbean Cruises</a>Rose more than 4%,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NCLH\">Norwegian cruise line</a>Up more than 3%.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/eca341daf46b92ece949cb29a836b1b4\" tg-width=\"434\" tg-height=\"192\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p></body></html></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Cruise stocks rose strongly, Carnival Cruises rose more than 6%</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ 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hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nCruise stocks rose strongly, Carnival Cruises rose more than 6%\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/102\">\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">老虎资讯综合 </p>\n<p class=\"h-time smaller\">2022-12-21 22:46</p>\n</div>\n</a>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><html><head></head><body>On December 21, cruise stocks rose sharply at the beginning of the session.<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/CCL\">Carnival Cruises</a>Up more than 6%,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/RCL\">Royal Caribbean Cruises</a>Rose more than 4%,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NCLH\">Norwegian cruise line</a>Up more than 3%.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/eca341daf46b92ece949cb29a836b1b4\" tg-width=\"434\" tg-height=\"192\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p></body></html></p>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6519a4fefaf5c27d84d40f62319661d4","relate_stocks":{"RCL":"皇家加勒比邮轮","CCL":"嘉年华邮轮","NCLH":"挪威邮轮"},"source_url":"","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1130846671","content_text":"12月21日，邮轮股盘初大涨，嘉年华邮轮涨超6%，皇家加勒比邮轮涨超4%，挪威邮轮涨超3%。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"RCL":0.9,"NCLH":0.9,"CCL":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":714,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9928485973,"gmtCreate":1671372439393,"gmtModify":1676538527113,"author":{"id":"3576729709142650","authorId":"3576729709142650","name":"Sunc","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/12ea94f8a6bfc2835bf320bed8216f7d","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3576729709142650","idStr":"3576729709142650"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a 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data-views=\"1\"></v-v>ok","text":"$Twitter(TWTR)$ 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href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/D05.SI\">$星展集团控股(D05.SI)$&nbsp;</a><v-v data-views=\"1\"></v-v>ok","listText":"<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/D05.SI\">$星展集团控股(D05.SI)$&nbsp;</a><v-v data-views=\"1\"></v-v>ok","text":"$星展集团控股(D05.SI)$ 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22:56","market":"sh","language":"zh","title":"Sinopharm: Will be responsible for the import and distribution of Pfizer's new crown specific drugs in the Chinese mainland market","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1194826097","media":"老虎资讯综合","summary":"中国医药：与辉瑞公司签订协议，将负责辉瑞公司新冠病毒治疗药物奈玛特韦片/利托那韦片(Paxlovid)在中国大陆市场的进口和经销。","content":"<p><html><head></head><body><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/600056\">China Pharmaceutical</a>: Signed an agreement with Pfizer to be responsible for the import and distribution of Pfizer's Novel Coronavirus therapeutic drug nematvir tablets/ritonavir tablets (Paxlovid) in the Chinese mainland market.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/239b68a7ee5fe1d0b55436ef89df6e1a\" tg-width=\"770\" tg-height=\"631\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p></body></html></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Sinopharm: Will be responsible for the import and distribution of Pfizer's new crown specific drugs in the Chinese mainland market</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ 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}\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nSinopharm: Will be responsible for the import and distribution of Pfizer's new crown specific drugs in the Chinese mainland market\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/102\">\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">老虎资讯综合 </p>\n<p class=\"h-time smaller\">2022-12-14 22:56</p>\n</div>\n</a>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><html><head></head><body><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/600056\">China Pharmaceutical</a>: Signed an agreement with Pfizer to be responsible for the import and distribution of Pfizer's Novel Coronavirus therapeutic drug nematvir tablets/ritonavir tablets (Paxlovid) in the Chinese mainland market.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/239b68a7ee5fe1d0b55436ef89df6e1a\" tg-width=\"770\" tg-height=\"631\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p></body></html></p>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/86caee6b0aec6bd2902dea91a4ecb3e5","relate_stocks":{"600056":"中国医药","PFE":"辉瑞"},"source_url":"","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1194826097","content_text":"中国医药：与辉瑞公司签订协议，将负责辉瑞公司新冠病毒治疗药物奈玛特韦片/利托那韦片(Paxlovid)在中国大陆市场的进口和经销。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"600056":0.9,"PFE":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":626,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0}],"hots":[{"id":9033007074,"gmtCreate":1646144673264,"gmtModify":1676534095621,"author":{"id":"3576729709142650","authorId":"3576729709142650","name":"Sunc","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/12ea94f8a6bfc2835bf320bed8216f7d","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3576729709142650","idStr":"3576729709142650"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"ok","listText":"ok","text":"ok","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":5,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9033007074","repostId":"1126282522","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":752,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9097453618,"gmtCreate":1645539762955,"gmtModify":1676534037358,"author":{"id":"3576729709142650","authorId":"3576729709142650","name":"Sunc","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/12ea94f8a6bfc2835bf320bed8216f7d","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3576729709142650","idStr":"3576729709142650"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"ok","listText":"ok","text":"ok","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":4,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9097453618","repostId":"2213998229","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":701,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9910893935,"gmtCreate":1663590183828,"gmtModify":1676537296744,"author":{"id":"3576729709142650","authorId":"3576729709142650","name":"Sunc","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/12ea94f8a6bfc2835bf320bed8216f7d","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3576729709142650","idStr":"3576729709142650"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"ok","listText":"ok","text":"ok","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":5,"commentSize":3,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9910893935","repostId":"1107423216","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1107423216","kind":"news","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"Providing stock market headlines, business news, financials and earnings ","home_visible":1,"media_name":"Tiger Newspress","id":"1079075236","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba"},"pubTimestamp":1663588824,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1107423216?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2022-09-19 20:00","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Pre-Bell｜U.S. Futures Fall Nearly 1%; One Company Shares Jump 24%","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1107423216","media":"Tiger Newspress","summary":"Wall Street futures fell on Monday, with rate-sensitive technology and growth stocks leading the dec","content":"<html><head></head><body><p>Wall Street futures fell on Monday, with rate-sensitive technology and growth stocks leading the declines as investors worried that another massive interest rate hike by the Federal Reserve could tip the U.S. economy into a recession.</p><p>Heavyweights Apple, Microsoft, Alphabet, Amazon.com, Meta Platforms, Tesla Inc and Nvidia Corp fell about 1% in premarket trading.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/bc3f906f466b5a6621bd631d8c382cb6\" tg-width=\"445\" tg-height=\"487\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Focus will also be on new economic projections, due to be published alongside the policy statement at 2 p.m. ET (1800 GMT) on Wednesday.</p><p>The CBOE volatility index(.VIX), also known as Wall Street&#39;s fear gauge, rose to 27.88 points, inching closer to a more than two-month high.</p><p><b>Market Snapshot</b></p><p>At 7:55 a.m. ET, Dow e-minis were down 251 points, or 0.81%, S&amp;P 500 e-minis were down 33.25 points, or 0.85%, and Nasdaq 100 e-minis were down 109 points, or 0.91%.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/de765ca7e9b944b90549124f0b2d448b\" tg-width=\"444\" tg-height=\"178\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><b>Pre-Market Movers</b></p><p><b>AutoZone (AZO)</b> – AutoZone gained 2.3% in premarket action after the auto parts retailer reported better-than-expected profit and revenue for its latest quarter. AutoZone&#39;s same-store sales rose 6.2% compared to a year ago, twice what analysts had predicted amid continued strength in its commercial business.</p><p><b>Take-Two Interactive (TTWO)</b> – Take-Two shares slid 5.6% in the premarket after Bloomberg reported that a hacker released gameplay from its upcoming Grand Theft Auto IV game online. It&#39;s said to be one of the biggest leaks in gaming history.</p><p><b>bluebird bio (BLUE)</b> – bluebird bio rallied 6.6% in premarket trading after the Food and Drug Administration approved the company&#39;s gene therapy for a rare and lethal brain disease in children.</p><p><b>Wix (WIX)</b> – Wix shares jumped 6% in premarket action after activist investor Starboard Value revealed a 9% stake in the web development platform company.</p><p><b>Coinbase (COIN)</b> – Coinbase fell 4.8% in the premarket, as multimonth lows for cryptocurrencies weigh on sentiment for the crypto exchange operator and other crypto-related stocks. <b>MicroStrategy (MSTR) </b>– the business analytics company which has billions in bitcoin on its balance sheet – also fell, down 5%.</p><p><b>FedEx (FDX)</b> – FedEx remains on watch after plunging 21.4% in Friday&#39;s trading following an earnings warning, its biggest-ever one-day decline.</p><p><b>NCR (NCR)</b> – NCR slid another 2.2% in the premarket on top of a 20.3% plunge Friday after Morgan Stanley downgraded the stock to &#34;equal-weight&#34; from &#34;overweight.&#34; The Friday decline followed news that NCR would separate into two separate companies, and Morgan Stanley said any unlocking of value from that move may take a long time to play out.</p><p><b>Adobe (ADBE)</b> – Wells Fargo downgraded the software company&#39;s stock to &#34;equal weight&#34; from &#34;overweight,&#34; saying Adobe&#39;s planned acquisition of online design firm Figma is a good product fit but that the $20 billion price tag leaves little room for error. Adobe fell 1.3% in premarket trading after falling 16.8% last Thursday and another 3.1% on Friday.</p><p><b>Theravance Biopharma (TBPH)</b> – Theravance has initiated a $250 million stock buyback program. As part of that program, it will buy the 9.6 million shares held by pharmaceutical companyGSK(GSK). Theravance added 3.2% in the premarket.</p><p><b>KnowBe4 (KNBE)</b> – KnowBe4, Inc today confirmed the receipt of a non-binding proposal from Vista Equity Partners (“Vista”) to acquire all outstanding shares of the Company for $24 per share in cash. The proposal represents a 39% premium to KnowBe4’s closing price on September 16, 2022. KnowBe4 shares jumped 24.3% in premarket trading.</p><p><b>Market News</b></p><p><b>Britain Holds State Funeral for Queen Elizabeth II</b></p><p>Queen Elizabeth II&#39;s state funeral took place at Westminster Abbey as Britain concludes its farewell to its longest-serving monarch.</p><p>The funeral began at 6 a.m. ET and included readings by Prime Minister Liz Truss and the secretary general of the Commonwealth, Patricia Scotland. The Archbishop of Canterbury used his sermon to praise the queen&#39;s servant leadership.</p><p>The service was attended by a host of world leaders, including President Biden, French President Emmanuel Macron and Japanese Emperor Naruhito.</p><p><b>Bitcoin Falls Below $19,000 As Cryptos Creak Under Rate Hike Risk</b></p><p>Cryptocurrencies fell to fresh lows on Monday on regulatory concerns and as investors globally turned shy on risky assets with interest rate rises looming around the world.</p><p>Bitcoin , the biggest cryptocurrency by market value, fell about 5% to a three-month low of $18,387.</p><p>Ether , the second largest cryptocurrency, dropped 3% to a two-month low of $1,285 and is down more than 10% in the last 24 hours. Most other smaller tokens were deeper in the red.</p><p><b>VW Prices Porsche IPO, Valuing Car Maker at Up to $78 Billion</b></p><p>Porsche AG shares will begin trading on Sept. 29 in one of the largest European public listings in years, raising up to $9.4 billion and valuing the sports car maker at as much as $78 billion.</p><p>Porsche’s parent, German car giant Volkswagen AG, priced the public offering of preferred stock in line with average analyst expectations. Combined with a private sale of Porsche ordinary stock to VW’s largest investor, Porsche Automobil Holding SE, the sale of 25% of Porsche could raise €19.5 billion for VW, the equivalent of $19.5 billion.</p></body></html>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Pre-Bell｜U.S. Futures Fall Nearly 1%; One Company Shares Jump 24%</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; 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}\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nPre-Bell｜U.S. Futures Fall Nearly 1%; One Company Shares Jump 24%\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/1079075236\">\n\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">Tiger Newspress </p>\n<p class=\"h-time\">2022-09-19 20:00</p>\n</div>\n\n</a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<html><head></head><body><p>Wall Street futures fell on Monday, with rate-sensitive technology and growth stocks leading the declines as investors worried that another massive interest rate hike by the Federal Reserve could tip the U.S. economy into a recession.</p><p>Heavyweights Apple, Microsoft, Alphabet, Amazon.com, Meta Platforms, Tesla Inc and Nvidia Corp fell about 1% in premarket trading.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/bc3f906f466b5a6621bd631d8c382cb6\" tg-width=\"445\" tg-height=\"487\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Focus will also be on new economic projections, due to be published alongside the policy statement at 2 p.m. ET (1800 GMT) on Wednesday.</p><p>The CBOE volatility index(.VIX), also known as Wall Street&#39;s fear gauge, rose to 27.88 points, inching closer to a more than two-month high.</p><p><b>Market Snapshot</b></p><p>At 7:55 a.m. ET, Dow e-minis were down 251 points, or 0.81%, S&amp;P 500 e-minis were down 33.25 points, or 0.85%, and Nasdaq 100 e-minis were down 109 points, or 0.91%.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/de765ca7e9b944b90549124f0b2d448b\" tg-width=\"444\" tg-height=\"178\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><b>Pre-Market Movers</b></p><p><b>AutoZone (AZO)</b> – AutoZone gained 2.3% in premarket action after the auto parts retailer reported better-than-expected profit and revenue for its latest quarter. AutoZone&#39;s same-store sales rose 6.2% compared to a year ago, twice what analysts had predicted amid continued strength in its commercial business.</p><p><b>Take-Two Interactive (TTWO)</b> – Take-Two shares slid 5.6% in the premarket after Bloomberg reported that a hacker released gameplay from its upcoming Grand Theft Auto IV game online. It&#39;s said to be one of the biggest leaks in gaming history.</p><p><b>bluebird bio (BLUE)</b> – bluebird bio rallied 6.6% in premarket trading after the Food and Drug Administration approved the company&#39;s gene therapy for a rare and lethal brain disease in children.</p><p><b>Wix (WIX)</b> – Wix shares jumped 6% in premarket action after activist investor Starboard Value revealed a 9% stake in the web development platform company.</p><p><b>Coinbase (COIN)</b> – Coinbase fell 4.8% in the premarket, as multimonth lows for cryptocurrencies weigh on sentiment for the crypto exchange operator and other crypto-related stocks. <b>MicroStrategy (MSTR) </b>– the business analytics company which has billions in bitcoin on its balance sheet – also fell, down 5%.</p><p><b>FedEx (FDX)</b> – FedEx remains on watch after plunging 21.4% in Friday&#39;s trading following an earnings warning, its biggest-ever one-day decline.</p><p><b>NCR (NCR)</b> – NCR slid another 2.2% in the premarket on top of a 20.3% plunge Friday after Morgan Stanley downgraded the stock to &#34;equal-weight&#34; from &#34;overweight.&#34; The Friday decline followed news that NCR would separate into two separate companies, and Morgan Stanley said any unlocking of value from that move may take a long time to play out.</p><p><b>Adobe (ADBE)</b> – Wells Fargo downgraded the software company&#39;s stock to &#34;equal weight&#34; from &#34;overweight,&#34; saying Adobe&#39;s planned acquisition of online design firm Figma is a good product fit but that the $20 billion price tag leaves little room for error. Adobe fell 1.3% in premarket trading after falling 16.8% last Thursday and another 3.1% on Friday.</p><p><b>Theravance Biopharma (TBPH)</b> – Theravance has initiated a $250 million stock buyback program. As part of that program, it will buy the 9.6 million shares held by pharmaceutical companyGSK(GSK). Theravance added 3.2% in the premarket.</p><p><b>KnowBe4 (KNBE)</b> – KnowBe4, Inc today confirmed the receipt of a non-binding proposal from Vista Equity Partners (“Vista”) to acquire all outstanding shares of the Company for $24 per share in cash. The proposal represents a 39% premium to KnowBe4’s closing price on September 16, 2022. KnowBe4 shares jumped 24.3% in premarket trading.</p><p><b>Market News</b></p><p><b>Britain Holds State Funeral for Queen Elizabeth II</b></p><p>Queen Elizabeth II&#39;s state funeral took place at Westminster Abbey as Britain concludes its farewell to its longest-serving monarch.</p><p>The funeral began at 6 a.m. ET and included readings by Prime Minister Liz Truss and the secretary general of the Commonwealth, Patricia Scotland. The Archbishop of Canterbury used his sermon to praise the queen&#39;s servant leadership.</p><p>The service was attended by a host of world leaders, including President Biden, French President Emmanuel Macron and Japanese Emperor Naruhito.</p><p><b>Bitcoin Falls Below $19,000 As Cryptos Creak Under Rate Hike Risk</b></p><p>Cryptocurrencies fell to fresh lows on Monday on regulatory concerns and as investors globally turned shy on risky assets with interest rate rises looming around the world.</p><p>Bitcoin , the biggest cryptocurrency by market value, fell about 5% to a three-month low of $18,387.</p><p>Ether , the second largest cryptocurrency, dropped 3% to a two-month low of $1,285 and is down more than 10% in the last 24 hours. Most other smaller tokens were deeper in the red.</p><p><b>VW Prices Porsche IPO, Valuing Car Maker at Up to $78 Billion</b></p><p>Porsche AG shares will begin trading on Sept. 29 in one of the largest European public listings in years, raising up to $9.4 billion and valuing the sports car maker at as much as $78 billion.</p><p>Porsche’s parent, German car giant Volkswagen AG, priced the public offering of preferred stock in line with average analyst expectations. Combined with a private sale of Porsche ordinary stock to VW’s largest investor, Porsche Automobil Holding SE, the sale of 25% of Porsche could raise €19.5 billion for VW, the equivalent of $19.5 billion.</p></body></html>\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"TTWO":"Take-Two Interactive Software","FDX":"联邦快递","MSTR":"Strategy",".DJI":"道琼斯","KNBE":"KnowBe4, Inc.","ADBE":"Adobe",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite","TBPH":"Theravance Biopharma Inc.","WIX":"Wix.Com Ltd","COIN":"Coinbase Global, Inc.","AZO":"汽车地带",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index"},"source_url":"","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1107423216","content_text":"Wall Street futures fell on Monday, with rate-sensitive technology and growth stocks leading the declines as investors worried that another massive interest rate hike by the Federal Reserve could tip the U.S. economy into a recession.Heavyweights Apple, Microsoft, Alphabet, Amazon.com, Meta Platforms, Tesla Inc and Nvidia Corp fell about 1% in premarket trading.Focus will also be on new economic projections, due to be published alongside the policy statement at 2 p.m. ET (1800 GMT) on Wednesday.The CBOE volatility index(.VIX), also known as Wall Street's fear gauge, rose to 27.88 points, inching closer to a more than two-month high.Market SnapshotAt 7:55 a.m. ET, Dow e-minis were down 251 points, or 0.81%, S&P 500 e-minis were down 33.25 points, or 0.85%, and Nasdaq 100 e-minis were down 109 points, or 0.91%.Pre-Market MoversAutoZone (AZO) – AutoZone gained 2.3% in premarket action after the auto parts retailer reported better-than-expected profit and revenue for its latest quarter. AutoZone's same-store sales rose 6.2% compared to a year ago, twice what analysts had predicted amid continued strength in its commercial business.Take-Two Interactive (TTWO) – Take-Two shares slid 5.6% in the premarket after Bloomberg reported that a hacker released gameplay from its upcoming Grand Theft Auto IV game online. It's said to be one of the biggest leaks in gaming history.bluebird bio (BLUE) – bluebird bio rallied 6.6% in premarket trading after the Food and Drug Administration approved the company's gene therapy for a rare and lethal brain disease in children.Wix (WIX) – Wix shares jumped 6% in premarket action after activist investor Starboard Value revealed a 9% stake in the web development platform company.Coinbase (COIN) – Coinbase fell 4.8% in the premarket, as multimonth lows for cryptocurrencies weigh on sentiment for the crypto exchange operator and other crypto-related stocks. MicroStrategy (MSTR) – the business analytics company which has billions in bitcoin on its balance sheet – also fell, down 5%.FedEx (FDX) – FedEx remains on watch after plunging 21.4% in Friday's trading following an earnings warning, its biggest-ever one-day decline.NCR (NCR) – NCR slid another 2.2% in the premarket on top of a 20.3% plunge Friday after Morgan Stanley downgraded the stock to \"equal-weight\" from \"overweight.\" The Friday decline followed news that NCR would separate into two separate companies, and Morgan Stanley said any unlocking of value from that move may take a long time to play out.Adobe (ADBE) – Wells Fargo downgraded the software company's stock to \"equal weight\" from \"overweight,\" saying Adobe's planned acquisition of online design firm Figma is a good product fit but that the $20 billion price tag leaves little room for error. Adobe fell 1.3% in premarket trading after falling 16.8% last Thursday and another 3.1% on Friday.Theravance Biopharma (TBPH) – Theravance has initiated a $250 million stock buyback program. As part of that program, it will buy the 9.6 million shares held by pharmaceutical companyGSK(GSK). Theravance added 3.2% in the premarket.KnowBe4 (KNBE) – KnowBe4, Inc today confirmed the receipt of a non-binding proposal from Vista Equity Partners (“Vista”) to acquire all outstanding shares of the Company for $24 per share in cash. The proposal represents a 39% premium to KnowBe4’s closing price on September 16, 2022. KnowBe4 shares jumped 24.3% in premarket trading.Market NewsBritain Holds State Funeral for Queen Elizabeth IIQueen Elizabeth II's state funeral took place at Westminster Abbey as Britain concludes its farewell to its longest-serving monarch.The funeral began at 6 a.m. ET and included readings by Prime Minister Liz Truss and the secretary general of the Commonwealth, Patricia Scotland. The Archbishop of Canterbury used his sermon to praise the queen's servant leadership.The service was attended by a host of world leaders, including President Biden, French President Emmanuel Macron and Japanese Emperor Naruhito.Bitcoin Falls Below $19,000 As Cryptos Creak Under Rate Hike RiskCryptocurrencies fell to fresh lows on Monday on regulatory concerns and as investors globally turned shy on risky assets with interest rate rises looming around the world.Bitcoin , the biggest cryptocurrency by market value, fell about 5% to a three-month low of $18,387.Ether , the second largest cryptocurrency, dropped 3% to a two-month low of $1,285 and is down more than 10% in the last 24 hours. Most other smaller tokens were deeper in the red.VW Prices Porsche IPO, Valuing Car Maker at Up to $78 BillionPorsche AG shares will begin trading on Sept. 29 in one of the largest European public listings in years, raising up to $9.4 billion and valuing the sports car maker at as much as $78 billion.Porsche’s parent, German car giant Volkswagen AG, priced the public offering of preferred stock in line with average analyst expectations. Combined with a private sale of Porsche ordinary stock to VW’s largest investor, Porsche Automobil Holding SE, the sale of 25% of Porsche could raise €19.5 billion for VW, the equivalent of $19.5 billion.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"FDX":0.9,"ESmain":0.9,"TTWO":0.9,"TBPH":0.9,"MSTR":0.9,"AZO":0.9,".DJI":0.9,"YMmain":0.9,"KNBE":0.9,"WIX":0.9,"COIN":0.9,"NQmain":0.9,"NCR":0.9,".SPX":0.9,"BLUE":0.9,"ADBE":0.9,".IXIC":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":546,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9049405478,"gmtCreate":1655822617794,"gmtModify":1676535712016,"author":{"id":"3576729709142650","authorId":"3576729709142650","name":"Sunc","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/12ea94f8a6bfc2835bf320bed8216f7d","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3576729709142650","idStr":"3576729709142650"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"ok","listText":"ok","text":"ok","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":7,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9049405478","repostId":"2245827432","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"2245827432","kind":"highlight","pubTimestamp":1655825437,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/2245827432?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2022-06-21 23:30","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Should You Buy Tesla Now or Wait Until After the Stock Split?","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2245827432","media":"Motley Fool","summary":"Here's what Tesla's potential upcoming split means for investors.","content":"<div>\n<p>KEY POINTSTesla wants to split its stock 3-for-1.The stock's valuation continues to get more attractive.A recession could hurt Tesla's young competition.Electric-vehicle company Tesla recently filed a...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://www.fool.com/investing/2022/06/21/should-you-buy-tesla-now-or-wait-until-after-the-s/\">Source Link</a>\n\n</div>\n","source":"fool_stock","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Should You Buy Tesla Now or Wait Until After the Stock Split?</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nShould You Buy Tesla Now or Wait Until After the Stock Split?\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2022-06-21 23:30 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://www.fool.com/investing/2022/06/21/should-you-buy-tesla-now-or-wait-until-after-the-s/><strong>Motley Fool</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>KEY POINTSTesla wants to split its stock 3-for-1.The stock's valuation continues to get more attractive.A recession could hurt Tesla's young competition.Electric-vehicle company Tesla recently filed a...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://www.fool.com/investing/2022/06/21/should-you-buy-tesla-now-or-wait-until-after-the-s/\">Source Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{},"source_url":"https://www.fool.com/investing/2022/06/21/should-you-buy-tesla-now-or-wait-until-after-the-s/","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2245827432","content_text":"KEY POINTSTesla wants to split its stock 3-for-1.The stock's valuation continues to get more attractive.A recession could hurt Tesla's young competition.Electric-vehicle company Tesla recently filed a document revealing plans for a 3-for-1 stock split.The company last split its stock in August 2020, and shares have risen 30% since then. So if you're planning to invest in Tesla, should you buy the stock now or wait until the split takes place, which needs approval from shareholders at the company's annual shareholder meeting on August 4?The answer may surprise you; roll up your sleeves and dive in.What a stock split means for investorsFirst, it is essential to know what a stock split is and what it means for investors. A stock split is when a company increases its existing total share count by a specific ratio to lower its share price. The important thing to note is the company's total market capitalization remains unchanged strictly based on the stock split.For example, Tesla's proposed 3-for-1 split means the automaker is tripling the number of outstanding shares on the market. After the split, investors will own three shares for every share they held before the split.If all else remains equal, the share price will fall in proportion, so if Tesla trades at $999 per share before the split, investors will have three shares at $333 each after the split.The crucial takeaway is that a stock split doesn't make the company any more valuable; nothing fundamentally changes about the stock. The one share trading at $999 is worth the same as three shares trading at $333.Stock splits make shares more affordable, especially for retail investors. Companies sometimes split their stock to appeal to the retail crowd; adding more shares also boosts trading volume, meaning the stock is easier to buy and sell on a brokerage.Asking whether to buy a stock before or after a stock split is a trick question: If a split doesn't fundamentally change a stock, it shouldn't matter whether you buy now or wait. However, you can base your buying or selling of Tesla on other factors.The stock is near its lowest valuationTesla began turning a bottom-line profit in 2020, so investors can value the stock with the price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio. Its P/E ratio started high when it first turned profitable, earnings per share (EPS) are now quickly growing, and the stock's valuation is coming down. The current P/E of 89 is its lowest on record.Data by YCharts.Tesla still commands a considerable premium over legacy automotive companies like Ford and General Motors, which trade at a P/E of 4 and 5, respectively. However, Tesla's bottom line is swelling; analysts expect 30% annual EPS growth over the next three to five years, compared to just 3% for Ford and 10% for General Motors.It seems that Tesla deserves the premium valuation it has, though the degree of that premium is up for debate. Nevertheless, if the company can grow like analysts believe it can, long-term investors could see the stock grow into its valuation over time.A tough economy could hurt competitorsTesla's profitability also comes at a crucial time; inflation is raging, supply chains are hurting manufacturers worldwide, and the economy could enter a recession. Mass-producing cars isn't easy, and Elon Musk has openly talked about how increasing Model 3 production nearly bankrupted his company.A problematic economic backdrop could spell trouble for upstart competitors like Lucid Group and Rivian Automotive, which still burn significant amounts of cash. Meanwhile, Tesla is generating billions in free cash flow and sitting on $18 billion in cash on the balance sheet against just $3 billion in debt.Data by YCharts.Rivian has $16 billion in cash from IPO proceeds, while Lucid has $5 billion. This cash will buy them time, but both are trying to build more vehicles faster, which could worsen their cash burn.A recession wouldn't help anyone, but harsh operating conditions can become a game of survival, and it's not clear that any automotive company is as financially sound right now as Tesla is.Wrapping upA stock split can grab headlines, but investors who buy Tesla stock should do so because of its growth and profitability. The stock could go lower over the short term, and nobody knows when a bottom might occur.Approaching your investments with a long time horizon will give a company's fundamentals the best chance to dictate your investment returns. Good companies tend to perform well over time. You can also use a dollar-cost averaging strategy to slowly buy shares, blending your cost into an average that isn't too high or too low.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":282,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9091035593,"gmtCreate":1643728734819,"gmtModify":1676533849359,"author":{"id":"3576729709142650","authorId":"3576729709142650","name":"Sunc","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/12ea94f8a6bfc2835bf320bed8216f7d","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3576729709142650","idStr":"3576729709142650"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"ok","listText":"ok","text":"ok","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":4,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9091035593","repostId":"1130050232","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1130050232","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1643720363,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1130050232?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2022-02-01 20:59","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"U.S. stocks \"tiger turns into meow\" in the New Year? Historical data: It can still rise back!","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1130050232","media":"第一财经","summary":"在辞旧迎新的除夕夜里，标普500指数和纳指结束了自2020年3月以来表现最糟糕的一个月。标普500指数和纳指在1月分别累计下挫5.3%和9%，后者更录得2008年以来最差的1月份表现。同期，道指收跌3","content":"<p><div>On New Year's Eve, the S&P 500 and Nasdaq ended their worst month since March 2020. The S&P 500 and Nasdaq fell 5.3% and 9% respectively in January, with the latter recording its worst January performance since 2008. During the same period, the Dow closed down 3.3%, the largest monthly decline since November last year, and the Russell 2000 index, which tracks small-cap stocks, fell 9.66%. High-fever inflation, returning COVID-19 pandemic, short-term intractable supply chain bottlenecks, and expectations for the Federal Reserve to accelerate monetary policy tightening have become the upward trend of U.S. stocks...</p><p><a href=\"https://www.yicai.com/news/101306745.html\">Web link</a></div></p>","source":"dyvj","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>U.S. stocks \"tiger turns into meow\" in the New Year? Historical data: It can still rise back!</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nU.S. stocks \"tiger turns into meow\" in the New Year? Historical data: It can still rise back!\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">第一财经</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2022-02-01 20:59</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><div>On New Year's Eve, the S&P 500 and Nasdaq ended their worst month since March 2020. The S&P 500 and Nasdaq fell 5.3% and 9% respectively in January, with the latter recording its worst January performance since 2008. During the same period, the Dow closed down 3.3%, the largest monthly decline since November last year, and the Russell 2000 index, which tracks small-cap stocks, fell 9.66%. High-fever inflation, returning COVID-19 pandemic, short-term intractable supply chain bottlenecks, and expectations for the Federal Reserve to accelerate monetary policy tightening have become the upward trend of U.S. stocks...</p><p><a href=\"https://www.yicai.com/news/101306745.html\">Web link</a></div></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> source：<a href=\"https://www.yicai.com/news/101306745.html\">第一财经</a></p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5d8fb95e65f042f352c6313989391357","relate_stocks":{".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite",".DJI":"道琼斯",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index"},"source_url":"https://www.yicai.com/news/101306745.html","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1130050232","content_text":"在辞旧迎新的除夕夜里，标普500指数和纳指结束了自2020年3月以来表现最糟糕的一个月。标普500指数和纳指在1月分别累计下挫5.3%和9%，后者更录得2008年以来最差的1月份表现。同期，道指收跌3.3%，为去年11月以来最大单月跌幅，追踪小盘股的罗素2000指数重挫9.66%。高烧不退的通胀、去而复返的新冠疫情、短期难解的供应链瓶颈，加之对美联储加速收紧货币政策的预期，俨然已成横于美股上行途中的重重大山。标普500指数的11个板块中，除能源股逆势上行外，均在新年出现回落。开年糟糕，全年躺到？开年走低并非好兆头，毕竟华尔街素有“1月晴雨表”之说，所谓“一月如此，全年亦如此”。据股票交易者年鉴（Stock Trader's Almanac）的统计数据，自1950年以来，美股股指1月表现“大概率”能预测出年内剩余月份的涨跌态势，准确率高达84.5%。数十年间，仅出现过12次明显预测差错。在股指跌幅明显时，数据预测更令人沮丧。据道琼斯市场数据（Dow Jones Market Data）的统计，自1957年以来，当标普500指数在1月份下挫幅度达5%及以上时，当年剩余月份的平均累计涨幅仅为2.7%。需要指出的是，伴随全球“黑天鹅”事件频发，近年来“1月晴雨表”的预报准确性有待观察。2020年和2021年标普500指数在1月分别下挫0.16%和1.11%，同年股指累计大涨16.26%和26.89%。通胀重压下，美联储加速收紧货币政策的预期成为近期美股震荡加剧的主要推手。芝加哥商品交易所的美联储观察工具（Fed Watch Tool）显示，交易员预测年内加息100个基点的概率已升至92.1%。要知道，1个月前该预测概率仅为34.5%。目前，对今年加息125个基点和150个基点的概率预测已分别升至69.9%和35.7%。交易员预测年内加息100个基点概率升至92.1% （来源：芝商所美联储观察工具）美国银行的首席经济学家哈里斯（Ethan Harris）将今年美国国内生产总值（GDP）增速从4%下调至3.6%，并预计通胀水平在今年底前仍将高于3%。该行预测，美联储将自3月起，在年内剩余的每一次货币政策会议上加息25个基点，当年共计加息7次（175个基点），到2023年底前，联邦基金利率将达到2.75%~3.00%，从而抑制通胀并减缓增长。周一，三位美联储高官就货币政策路径发表看法。旧金山联储主席玛丽·戴利（Mary Daly）称，在打击通胀方面，美联储“完全没有落后”，并强调加息应是“渐进的”。与此同时，堪萨斯城联储主席埃斯特·乔治（Esther George）认为，大幅缩减近9万亿美元的资产负债表，有助于缓解美联储在短期激进加息的紧迫性。里士满联储主席托马斯·巴金（Thomas Barkin）则表示，“加息受到商界欢迎”，其步伐取决于经济数据。在刚刚过去的周末，亚特兰大联储主席拉斐尔·博斯蒂克（Raphael Bostic）在接受英媒采访时表示，如果通胀居高不下，美联储可能会将加息幅度扩大至50个基点。他同时重申，目前仍维持今年加息3次，每次25个基点的预期不变。多数回调都是趁低吸纳的好时机？历史数据显示，标普500指数平均每年有3次超5%或以上的回调，每年一次10%以上的回调。在全年上涨的年份中，标普500指数平均最大回调幅度达11%。鉴于美股自2020年3月的暴跌反弹至今，去年仅遭遇一次约5%的回调，券商LPL Financial的首席市场策略师瑞安·德特里克（Ryan Detrick）认为：“回调时机已至。”高盛团队的统计数据显示，自1950年以来，在非经济衰退期间出现的21次盘整中（高位回落超10%），标普500指数平均回调幅度达15%。值得庆幸的是，多数回调都被证实是趁低吸纳的好时机。自1950年以来，标普500指数经历的33次盘整中，平均历时约5个月，峰谷跌幅达18%。但是，若投资者在股指较高位回落10%时入市，此后12个月的平均回报率达15%。其中，最大的区别是美国经济是否进入衰退。高盛策略师大卫·科斯汀（David Kostin）的团队在报告中表示：“除非经济进入衰退，否则盘整很少会变成熊市。”美联储加息、中期选举左右走势事实上，历史数据表明在加息周期中，美股素来表现良好。据Truist联席首席投资官基思·勒纳 (Keith Lerner) 统计，自1950年代以来的12次美联储加息周期中，美股年均增幅达9%，其中11次实现了正回报。唯一的例外发生在1972~1974 年间，即经济危机期间。券商LPL Financial统计显示，自1980年以来标普500指数在所有8次加息周期中均实现上涨。其中，首次加息后6个月平均涨幅7.5%，12个月的平均涨幅10.8%。根据彭博汇编的数据，标普500指数年末点位预测平均值为4982点，较1月末收盘价4515点仍有10.34%的上浮空间。更长期而言，形势甚至更为乐观。LPL Financial的测算发现，美联储首次加息通常发生于经济周期的中早期阶段，此后美股牛市仍能持续约40个月。事实上，首次加息后至牛市见顶前，股指的平均涨幅达67%。“这意味着在下一次熊市来临前，标普500指数有望攀升至7700点。”德特里克在一份报告中写道。此外，一个不可忽视的风险或发生在今年下半年，也就是11月举行的美国中期选举。随着中期选举脚步临近，鉴于选举结果及其导致的后续政策变化的不确定性，投资者谨慎观望情绪将逐级上升。股票交易者年鉴统计了自1946年以来的数据显示，标普500指数在中期选举年的平均涨幅较常年平均低出约3个百分点，其中新任总统的首次中期选举中股指表现尤其差。中期选举年，美股表现逊于常年 （图源：Hirsch Holdings）根据LPL Financial 的数据，自 1950 年以来，标准普尔 500 指数在中期选举年内的高位回调幅度平均达17.1%。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{".SPX":0.9,".IXIC":0.9,".DJI":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":548,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9093222695,"gmtCreate":1643642886245,"gmtModify":1676533839486,"author":{"id":"3576729709142650","authorId":"3576729709142650","name":"Sunc","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/12ea94f8a6bfc2835bf320bed8216f7d","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3576729709142650","idStr":"3576729709142650"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"ok","listText":"ok","text":"ok","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":6,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9093222695","repostId":"1176041035","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1176041035","kind":"news","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"秦朔朋友圈是由中国著名媒体人、财经观察家秦朔牵头创立的一个新媒体与专业服务品牌，包括微信公众号、微博、视频节目、音频节目等。内容聚焦于经济、金融和商业领域，关注重点为全球和中国财经商业热点、企业家精神、创新与发明创造、商业文明探索等。","home_visible":1,"media_name":"秦朔朋友圈","id":"60","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/707686f07ebc41778130c729f4eea24e"},"pubTimestamp":1643611390,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1176041035?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2022-01-31 14:43","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"The Fed tightening storm is coming, and everyone is asking where is the bottom of the stock market?","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1176041035","media":"秦朔朋友圈","summary":"高通胀、低失业率，这意味着美国的加息、缩表风暴将掀起狂潮，又快又疾。1月的美联储议息会议释放了强烈的鹰派信号，不仅揭开了加息的序幕，还有量化紧缩（QT）紧跟其后。美联储主席鲍威尔表示在供应链方面没有任","content":"<p><html><head></head><body>High inflation and low unemployment rate mean that the rate hike and shrinking balance sheet storms in the United States will set off a frenzy, fast and fast.</p><p>The Federal Reserve's interest rate meeting in January released a strong hawkish signal, which not only kicked off the rate hike, but also followed closely by quantitative tightening (QT). Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell said that there has been no progress in the supply chain. It can be seen that he is very worried about inflation, and high inflation will last longer than expected.</p><p><b>Major Wall Street banks currently expect to start a rate hike in March, a rate hike four times throughout the year, and a shrinking balance sheet around July. How far will the Fed's $9 trillion balance sheet shrink to curb stubborn inflation? Where is the bottom of the stock market?</b>So far, the S&P 500 index has fallen by nearly 10% from its high level, and the Nasdaq 100 index has also fallen by more than 15%, approaching a technical bear market. The impact of austerity has spillover effects all over the world. Even in China, which started policy easing, A-shares actually fell below 3,400 points last week.</p><p>A number of U.S. stock traders told the author that due to the constraints of ultra-high inflation, the central bank's \"put option\" (central bank put, that is, the central bank often releases liquidity to rescue the market when the market falls) that has been tried and tested over the past decade has gradually failed, and the strategy of \"bargain hunting\" may withdraw from the stage of history.</p><p>However, due to the recent sharp decline in U.S. stocks, a technical rebound is likely to occur in the next week or two, but it is likely to continue to decline in the future. The 4818 points of the S&P 500 may be the highest level in the past two years. At present, some traders even give the market outlook. A target of 3800 points.</p><p><b>Austerity Storm Hits</b></p><p>Powell showed an hawkish posture at a press conference that started at 3 a.m. Beijing time on January 27. Compared with the moderate monetary policy statement, his tone was more hawkish. Risk assets fell in response, and the three major U.S. stock indexes turned from rising to fall.</p><p>Powell reiterated his plan to quickly withdraw from quantitative easing, while also hinting that rate hike is likely to be launched as soon as the next March meeting.</p><p>Some highlights of the press conference are as follows: wages are growing rapidly; Inflation remains well above long-term targets and has a broader impact; The economy no longer needs sustained high-intensity policy support; The Committee generally agreed that the time for rate hike would soon come; Powell doesn't rule out rate hike at every FOMC meeting; There is considerable room for interest rates to be raised; FOMC intends to rate hike at March meeting; The Fed's balance sheet is much larger than necessary; Inflation risks remain upward; Inflation is likely to remain higher for longer than expected.</p><p>Some traders mentioned to the author that we need to be alert to the possibility of a one-time rate hike of 50bp in March, just as after the outbreak of the epidemic in 2020, the Federal Reserve cut interest rates by 50bp at one time to carry out policy control that exceeded expectations. The resilience of the job market provides sufficient space for rate hike without leading to economic recession. \"It is expected that the GDP growth rate of the United States will be around 5%, and the growth may slow down, but there will be no negative growth rate and recession degree.\"</p><p>The just-released preliminary value of U.S. GDP in the fourth quarter shows that the economic growth rate is 6.9%, higher than the expected value of 5.5% and the previous value of 2.3%. One important piece of information worth noting is the sub-indicator of inflation called the \"price index\" or \"deflator\".</p><p>The GDP report showed that the indicator rose to 7% from the previous value of 5.9%, higher than the expected value of 6%. Another important data is the initial value of the personal consumption index and the core personal consumption index in the fourth quarter. The former was reported at 6.5%, and the expected value and the previous value were both 5.4% respectively. The core personal consumption index, the Federal Reserve's favorite inflation indicator, was reported at 4.9%, in line with expectations, but higher than the previous value of 4.6%.</p><p>Faced with such high inflation, and in the future, due to high oil prices and continued supply chain problems, inflation will be difficult to decline in the short term. In addition, the unemployment rate is only 3.9%. If it does not tighten, the Federal Reserve will face huge political and social pressure. After all, in the United States, box lunch and milk prices have soared by more than 50%.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9d39b2414af7cbb3122dd4284dbf02b7\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"1619\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><b>US stocks are far from falling</b></p><p>Restricted by ultra-high inflation, the central bank's \"put options\" that have been tried and tested over the past decade have gradually expired, and U.S. stocks will continue to fall.<b>Of course, the \"bull market inertia\" of the stock market rising under low interest rates for more than ten years has accumulated, and the decline will inevitably be accompanied by a rebound until the bulls are completely desperate.</b></p><p>\"I think the market will continue to fall, but since we are now in oversold territory, there will be a rebound in the process of the decline, but I don't think it will be sustained.\" Joe Perry, a senior trader and City Index analyst, told the author, \"Rising interest rates will lead to higher discount rates for future cash, which will put pressure on valuations and impact the profit margins of growth technology companies. In addition, although earnings have not been revised down, earnings results are only in line with expectations or slightly beat expectations, and performance guidance is weaker than expected.\"</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c5dba0f7c11bb72d96ee1b462cde5dd5\" tg-width=\"824\" tg-height=\"494\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/>| Nasdaq 100 Index</p><p>He mentioned that before<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NFLX\">Netflix</a>(Netflix) 's guidance fell short of expectations, and the market expected that the number of new subscribers would increase by more than 5 million, but in fact it only increased by 2.85 million;<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MSFT\">Microsoft</a>The performance is in line with expectations, but cloud computing business revenue is expected to decline in the first quarter;<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TSLA\">Tesla</a>The released results exceeded expectations, but supply chain issues will still run through 2022, or affect shipments. Although the performance of the big companies that the market is concerned about is acceptable, there are also hidden dangers, which is why Microsoft's stock price plummeted when its results were released before, and so did Tesla.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a7b44c25ffd6877291a3b5bd2e7c924e\" tg-width=\"688\" tg-height=\"436\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>In addition to the most vulnerable technology stocks, the outlook for the less volatile S&P 500 is not optimistic. \"I think the S&P 500 index has room for further downside. Today, the stock index just remains near the 200-day moving average. I think it will fall further. In the future, it may look towards 3,800 points, which is also the lowest point in the autumn of 2020 to the highest point in early January 2022. 50% retracement of the market.\" He said.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b3e8f12e7705d12478c89c8330e5f64e\" tg-width=\"800\" tg-height=\"481\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>The combination of \"rate hike + shrinking balance sheet + high inflation\" is fatal for the stock market. The point is that oil prices are likely to continue to rise in 2022, putting upward pressure on already high inflation again. Many institutions predict that under the geopolitical conflict between Russia and Ukraine, oil prices are likely to break through the $100 mark. Even without this important factor, falling inventories will cause oil prices to rise.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/141769c162fb4c35de32fb0d3e48afaa\" tg-width=\"776\" tg-height=\"364\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Perry said: \"There will still be room for oil prices to rise, especially considering the tension between Russia and Ukraine, and OPEC's output cannot climb. It may indeed hit the $100 mark in the first quarter, but it is more likely in the second and third quarters. By then, crude oil demand will also rise.\"</p><p><b>At present, the tension on the Russian-Ukrainian border has intensified. Last week, the two sides said that they would hold further negotiations within two weeks, but this period may still cause great uncertainty.</b>The U.S. secretary of state previously warned that \"if Russia sends another force into Ukraine, it will trigger a U.S. response\" and ordered U.S. embassy personnel to leave Ukraine. The UK Foreign Office estimates that about 100,000 Russian servicemen are currently massing at the border.</p><p>International asset management institutions believe that a diplomatic response is more likely, and a full-scale armed conflict seems unlikely. Invesco believes that the reasons are: severe financial sanctions from the United States and the European Union; Cancellation of the Nord Stream 2 pipeline via Ukraine; It may permanently turn the EU away from its dependence on Russian energy.</p><p>Currently, Russian natural gas accounts for about 9% of total energy consumption in Western Europe, and Russian oil accounts for about 10% of global oil production. Russia seems to be too economically at risk to make this gamble. Therefore, a more likely scenario is to reach a diplomatic response: if NATO promises to stop political and military engagement with Ukrainians, and if the Nord Stream 2 pipeline project is allowed to enter EU countries, the Russian troops will be withdrawn. This can provide immediate relief from skyrocketing energy prices, especially natural gas prices.</p><p>What if there is an armed conflict? Global oil supply will be greatly affected. In this scenario, analysts expect a 2.3 million barrels per day decline in oil supply, which would push oil prices to almost double to around $150 per barrel, thereby knocking global GDP by 1.6%. This will put significant upward pressure on inflation in Western countries. Many major central banks are likely to preemptively raise policy rates, thus curbing the economic rebound.</p><p>But in fact, from an investment perspective, no matter what happens in Ukraine, it is reasonable for investors to increase their holdings in the energy sector because:</p><p><b>It can be a good hedge against inflation. Strong global demand should keep prices high, while potentially severe supply disruptions from military action will only drive energy prices further.</b></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3a007c7df800bbb57a2856586d5730a4\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"1619\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><b>A-share center moves down</b></p><p><b>Looking at the Chinese stock market, the U.S. currency tightened and U.S. stocks fell. China's money is loose, but A shares fall even more. What's going on here?</b></p><p>Since January (January 26), the CSI 300 Index has fallen 4.6%. However, institutional people interviewed by the author generally believe that it is recommended to remain calm in February and not rush to increase positions.</p><p>According to AVIC Trust, the economic data in December last year was lower than expected, real estate investment, sales, new construction and other indicators experienced significant negative growth, and consumption growth declined. Facing the Spring Festival holiday and the Winter Olympics from January to February, the epidemic prevention and control situation will be more serious, and consumption will be weaker. Real estate is in the off-season, and it is difficult for distressed real estate companies to improve, which continues to drag down the economy. The bright spot of the macro economy is still in foreign trade. In the first quarter, import and export will follow the trend of last year and continue to maintain rapid growth. However, corporate profits lag behind the economic cycle, and the decline in economic growth will lead to the continued decline in corporate profit growth in the first quarter.</p><p>In terms of policy, monetary policy has been significantly loosened. In January, the medium-term lending facility (MLF) and reverse repurchase rate were lowered by 10BP. In the fourth quarter of last year, monetary easing was a minor fuss, but this year's monetary policy has made a clear turn. However, fiscal efforts have to wait for the \"two sessions\". The fiscal lag leads to the lack of \"focus\" of monetary policy in the first quarter, and there is nowhere to use its strength. In addition, the market expects that the Federal Reserve will start rate hike in March, and rate hike may reach 3-4 times during the year, which will also offset some of the domestic easing effects.</p><p>At present, the incremental funds of A shares are also insufficient. The issuance of Public Offering of Fund has weakened since the fourth quarter of last year, with only 60-70 billion new Public Offering of Fund issued in January. In the fourth quarter of last year, the performance of quantitative products was poor and it was redeemed by investors.<b>In 2021, capital inflows from the north will flow significantly into A-shares, but under the background of the strict supervision of \"fake foreign capital\" by the China Securities Regulatory Commission, it is expected that the scale of capital inflows from the north this year will be weaker than last year.</b>With the end of the transition period of the new asset management regulations, the transfer of funds from non-standard assets to the stock market is coming to an end, and the sources of incremental funds in the stock market are reduced.</p><p>Taking the new energy track stocks with a large pullback/retracement recently as an example, investment institutions are currently paying more attention to valuation. For a company with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 30%, it may be reasonable to give a valuation of 40 times, but if it was given 50-60 times, or even hundreds of times before, there must be irrational components, the possibility of subsequent valuation killing will increase. \"As for whether it is worth it now<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/300785\">Worth buying</a>, the judgment is not difficult-the current prosperity has not changed. If the valuation falls to 30 times, then you can get 30% of the possible room for making money. If it only returns to 40 times, then the room for buying profits is still limited.</p><p></body></html></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>The Fed tightening storm is coming, and everyone is asking where is the bottom of the stock market?</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nThe Fed tightening storm is coming, and everyone is asking where is the bottom of the stock market?\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/60\">\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/707686f07ebc41778130c729f4eea24e);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">秦朔朋友圈 </p>\n<p class=\"h-time smaller\">2022-01-31 14:43</p>\n</div>\n</a>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><html><head></head><body>High inflation and low unemployment rate mean that the rate hike and shrinking balance sheet storms in the United States will set off a frenzy, fast and fast.</p><p>The Federal Reserve's interest rate meeting in January released a strong hawkish signal, which not only kicked off the rate hike, but also followed closely by quantitative tightening (QT). Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell said that there has been no progress in the supply chain. It can be seen that he is very worried about inflation, and high inflation will last longer than expected.</p><p><b>Major Wall Street banks currently expect to start a rate hike in March, a rate hike four times throughout the year, and a shrinking balance sheet around July. How far will the Fed's $9 trillion balance sheet shrink to curb stubborn inflation? Where is the bottom of the stock market?</b>So far, the S&P 500 index has fallen by nearly 10% from its high level, and the Nasdaq 100 index has also fallen by more than 15%, approaching a technical bear market. The impact of austerity has spillover effects all over the world. Even in China, which started policy easing, A-shares actually fell below 3,400 points last week.</p><p>A number of U.S. stock traders told the author that due to the constraints of ultra-high inflation, the central bank's \"put option\" (central bank put, that is, the central bank often releases liquidity to rescue the market when the market falls) that has been tried and tested over the past decade has gradually failed, and the strategy of \"bargain hunting\" may withdraw from the stage of history.</p><p>However, due to the recent sharp decline in U.S. stocks, a technical rebound is likely to occur in the next week or two, but it is likely to continue to decline in the future. The 4818 points of the S&P 500 may be the highest level in the past two years. At present, some traders even give the market outlook. A target of 3800 points.</p><p><b>Austerity Storm Hits</b></p><p>Powell showed an hawkish posture at a press conference that started at 3 a.m. Beijing time on January 27. Compared with the moderate monetary policy statement, his tone was more hawkish. Risk assets fell in response, and the three major U.S. stock indexes turned from rising to fall.</p><p>Powell reiterated his plan to quickly withdraw from quantitative easing, while also hinting that rate hike is likely to be launched as soon as the next March meeting.</p><p>Some highlights of the press conference are as follows: wages are growing rapidly; Inflation remains well above long-term targets and has a broader impact; The economy no longer needs sustained high-intensity policy support; The Committee generally agreed that the time for rate hike would soon come; Powell doesn't rule out rate hike at every FOMC meeting; There is considerable room for interest rates to be raised; FOMC intends to rate hike at March meeting; The Fed's balance sheet is much larger than necessary; Inflation risks remain upward; Inflation is likely to remain higher for longer than expected.</p><p>Some traders mentioned to the author that we need to be alert to the possibility of a one-time rate hike of 50bp in March, just as after the outbreak of the epidemic in 2020, the Federal Reserve cut interest rates by 50bp at one time to carry out policy control that exceeded expectations. The resilience of the job market provides sufficient space for rate hike without leading to economic recession. \"It is expected that the GDP growth rate of the United States will be around 5%, and the growth may slow down, but there will be no negative growth rate and recession degree.\"</p><p>The just-released preliminary value of U.S. GDP in the fourth quarter shows that the economic growth rate is 6.9%, higher than the expected value of 5.5% and the previous value of 2.3%. One important piece of information worth noting is the sub-indicator of inflation called the \"price index\" or \"deflator\".</p><p>The GDP report showed that the indicator rose to 7% from the previous value of 5.9%, higher than the expected value of 6%. Another important data is the initial value of the personal consumption index and the core personal consumption index in the fourth quarter. The former was reported at 6.5%, and the expected value and the previous value were both 5.4% respectively. The core personal consumption index, the Federal Reserve's favorite inflation indicator, was reported at 4.9%, in line with expectations, but higher than the previous value of 4.6%.</p><p>Faced with such high inflation, and in the future, due to high oil prices and continued supply chain problems, inflation will be difficult to decline in the short term. In addition, the unemployment rate is only 3.9%. If it does not tighten, the Federal Reserve will face huge political and social pressure. After all, in the United States, box lunch and milk prices have soared by more than 50%.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9d39b2414af7cbb3122dd4284dbf02b7\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"1619\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><b>US stocks are far from falling</b></p><p>Restricted by ultra-high inflation, the central bank's \"put options\" that have been tried and tested over the past decade have gradually expired, and U.S. stocks will continue to fall.<b>Of course, the \"bull market inertia\" of the stock market rising under low interest rates for more than ten years has accumulated, and the decline will inevitably be accompanied by a rebound until the bulls are completely desperate.</b></p><p>\"I think the market will continue to fall, but since we are now in oversold territory, there will be a rebound in the process of the decline, but I don't think it will be sustained.\" Joe Perry, a senior trader and City Index analyst, told the author, \"Rising interest rates will lead to higher discount rates for future cash, which will put pressure on valuations and impact the profit margins of growth technology companies. In addition, although earnings have not been revised down, earnings results are only in line with expectations or slightly beat expectations, and performance guidance is weaker than expected.\"</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c5dba0f7c11bb72d96ee1b462cde5dd5\" tg-width=\"824\" tg-height=\"494\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/>| Nasdaq 100 Index</p><p>He mentioned that before<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NFLX\">Netflix</a>(Netflix) 's guidance fell short of expectations, and the market expected that the number of new subscribers would increase by more than 5 million, but in fact it only increased by 2.85 million;<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MSFT\">Microsoft</a>The performance is in line with expectations, but cloud computing business revenue is expected to decline in the first quarter;<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TSLA\">Tesla</a>The released results exceeded expectations, but supply chain issues will still run through 2022, or affect shipments. Although the performance of the big companies that the market is concerned about is acceptable, there are also hidden dangers, which is why Microsoft's stock price plummeted when its results were released before, and so did Tesla.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a7b44c25ffd6877291a3b5bd2e7c924e\" tg-width=\"688\" tg-height=\"436\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>In addition to the most vulnerable technology stocks, the outlook for the less volatile S&P 500 is not optimistic. \"I think the S&P 500 index has room for further downside. Today, the stock index just remains near the 200-day moving average. I think it will fall further. In the future, it may look towards 3,800 points, which is also the lowest point in the autumn of 2020 to the highest point in early January 2022. 50% retracement of the market.\" He said.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b3e8f12e7705d12478c89c8330e5f64e\" tg-width=\"800\" tg-height=\"481\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>The combination of \"rate hike + shrinking balance sheet + high inflation\" is fatal for the stock market. The point is that oil prices are likely to continue to rise in 2022, putting upward pressure on already high inflation again. Many institutions predict that under the geopolitical conflict between Russia and Ukraine, oil prices are likely to break through the $100 mark. Even without this important factor, falling inventories will cause oil prices to rise.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/141769c162fb4c35de32fb0d3e48afaa\" tg-width=\"776\" tg-height=\"364\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Perry said: \"There will still be room for oil prices to rise, especially considering the tension between Russia and Ukraine, and OPEC's output cannot climb. It may indeed hit the $100 mark in the first quarter, but it is more likely in the second and third quarters. By then, crude oil demand will also rise.\"</p><p><b>At present, the tension on the Russian-Ukrainian border has intensified. Last week, the two sides said that they would hold further negotiations within two weeks, but this period may still cause great uncertainty.</b>The U.S. secretary of state previously warned that \"if Russia sends another force into Ukraine, it will trigger a U.S. response\" and ordered U.S. embassy personnel to leave Ukraine. The UK Foreign Office estimates that about 100,000 Russian servicemen are currently massing at the border.</p><p>International asset management institutions believe that a diplomatic response is more likely, and a full-scale armed conflict seems unlikely. Invesco believes that the reasons are: severe financial sanctions from the United States and the European Union; Cancellation of the Nord Stream 2 pipeline via Ukraine; It may permanently turn the EU away from its dependence on Russian energy.</p><p>Currently, Russian natural gas accounts for about 9% of total energy consumption in Western Europe, and Russian oil accounts for about 10% of global oil production. Russia seems to be too economically at risk to make this gamble. Therefore, a more likely scenario is to reach a diplomatic response: if NATO promises to stop political and military engagement with Ukrainians, and if the Nord Stream 2 pipeline project is allowed to enter EU countries, the Russian troops will be withdrawn. This can provide immediate relief from skyrocketing energy prices, especially natural gas prices.</p><p>What if there is an armed conflict? Global oil supply will be greatly affected. In this scenario, analysts expect a 2.3 million barrels per day decline in oil supply, which would push oil prices to almost double to around $150 per barrel, thereby knocking global GDP by 1.6%. This will put significant upward pressure on inflation in Western countries. Many major central banks are likely to preemptively raise policy rates, thus curbing the economic rebound.</p><p>But in fact, from an investment perspective, no matter what happens in Ukraine, it is reasonable for investors to increase their holdings in the energy sector because:</p><p><b>It can be a good hedge against inflation. Strong global demand should keep prices high, while potentially severe supply disruptions from military action will only drive energy prices further.</b></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3a007c7df800bbb57a2856586d5730a4\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"1619\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><b>A-share center moves down</b></p><p><b>Looking at the Chinese stock market, the U.S. currency tightened and U.S. stocks fell. China's money is loose, but A shares fall even more. What's going on here?</b></p><p>Since January (January 26), the CSI 300 Index has fallen 4.6%. However, institutional people interviewed by the author generally believe that it is recommended to remain calm in February and not rush to increase positions.</p><p>According to AVIC Trust, the economic data in December last year was lower than expected, real estate investment, sales, new construction and other indicators experienced significant negative growth, and consumption growth declined. Facing the Spring Festival holiday and the Winter Olympics from January to February, the epidemic prevention and control situation will be more serious, and consumption will be weaker. Real estate is in the off-season, and it is difficult for distressed real estate companies to improve, which continues to drag down the economy. The bright spot of the macro economy is still in foreign trade. In the first quarter, import and export will follow the trend of last year and continue to maintain rapid growth. However, corporate profits lag behind the economic cycle, and the decline in economic growth will lead to the continued decline in corporate profit growth in the first quarter.</p><p>In terms of policy, monetary policy has been significantly loosened. In January, the medium-term lending facility (MLF) and reverse repurchase rate were lowered by 10BP. In the fourth quarter of last year, monetary easing was a minor fuss, but this year's monetary policy has made a clear turn. However, fiscal efforts have to wait for the \"two sessions\". The fiscal lag leads to the lack of \"focus\" of monetary policy in the first quarter, and there is nowhere to use its strength. In addition, the market expects that the Federal Reserve will start rate hike in March, and rate hike may reach 3-4 times during the year, which will also offset some of the domestic easing effects.</p><p>At present, the incremental funds of A shares are also insufficient. The issuance of Public Offering of Fund has weakened since the fourth quarter of last year, with only 60-70 billion new Public Offering of Fund issued in January. In the fourth quarter of last year, the performance of quantitative products was poor and it was redeemed by investors.<b>In 2021, capital inflows from the north will flow significantly into A-shares, but under the background of the strict supervision of \"fake foreign capital\" by the China Securities Regulatory Commission, it is expected that the scale of capital inflows from the north this year will be weaker than last year.</b>With the end of the transition period of the new asset management regulations, the transfer of funds from non-standard assets to the stock market is coming to an end, and the sources of incremental funds in the stock market are reduced.</p><p>Taking the new energy track stocks with a large pullback/retracement recently as an example, investment institutions are currently paying more attention to valuation. For a company with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 30%, it may be reasonable to give a valuation of 40 times, but if it was given 50-60 times, or even hundreds of times before, there must be irrational components, the possibility of subsequent valuation killing will increase. \"As for whether it is worth it now<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/300785\">Worth buying</a>, the judgment is not difficult-the current prosperity has not changed. If the valuation falls to 30 times, then you can get 30% of the possible room for making money. If it only returns to 40 times, then the room for buying profits is still limited.</p><p></body></html></p>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/75adecb2c4a2991eb1db80f007a7b5f8","relate_stocks":{".SPX":"S&P 500 Index",".DJI":"道琼斯",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite"},"source_url":"","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1176041035","content_text":"高通胀、低失业率，这意味着美国的加息、缩表风暴将掀起狂潮，又快又疾。1月的美联储议息会议释放了强烈的鹰派信号，不仅揭开了加息的序幕，还有量化紧缩（QT）紧跟其后。美联储主席鲍威尔表示在供应链方面没有任何进展，可以看出他对通胀问题非常担忧，高通胀持续的时间会超出预期。华尔街大行目前预计3月开始加息，全年加息4次，7月前后启动缩表，美联储高达9万亿美元的资产负债表要缩到何种地步才能抑制顽固的通胀？股市又何处是底？截至目前，标普500指数已经从高位下挫近10%，纳斯达克100指数也跌超15%，逼近技术性熊市。紧缩的影响在全球都出现了溢出效应，哪怕是启动政策宽松的中国，A股竟在上周一举跌破了3400点。多位美股交易员对笔者表示，受到超高通胀的制约，过去十多年屡试不爽的央行“看跌期权”（centralbankput，即央行往往会在市场下跌时释放流动性救市）逐步失效，“逢低买入”的策略可能退出历史舞台。不过由于最近美股跌势过猛，未来一两周很可能出现技术性反弹，但后续很可能会继续下行，标普500的4818点可能就是近两年的最高位，目前甚至有交易员对后市给出3800点的目标位。紧缩风暴来袭鲍威尔在北京时间1月27日凌晨3点开始的新闻发布会上展现鹰姿，相较于温和的货币政策声明，他的基调要更偏鹰派，风险资产应声下跌，美股三大股指由涨转跌。鲍威尔重申将迅速退出量宽的计划，同时还暗示很可能最快会在下次3月会议上启动加息。新闻发布会部分亮点如下：工资正在快速增长；通胀率仍远高于长期目标且影响范围更广；经济不再需要持续高强度政策支持；委员会普遍同意加息时机很快就会来到；鲍威尔不排除在FOMC每次会议上都进行加息；利率有相当大的上调空间；FOMC打算在3月会议上加息；美联储资产负债表规模远大于必需；通胀风险仍为向上；通胀可能较预期保持更长时间高企。有交易员对笔者提及，需要警惕3月一次性加息50bp的可能性，正如2020年疫情暴发后，美联储一次性降息50bp来进行超预期政策调控。就业市场的强韧程度为加息提供了充分空间，而不会导致经济衰退，“预计美国GDP增速会在5%左右，增长可能会放缓，但不会出现增速为负、陷入衰退的程度。”刚刚公布的美国四季度GDP初值显示，经济增长率为6.9%，高于5.5%的预期值和2.3%的前值。有一项重要信息值得留意，那就是被称为“物价指数”或“平减指数”的通胀分项指标。GDP报告显示，该指标从5.9%的前值上升至7%，高于6%的预期值。另一重要数据是四季度个人消费指数与核心个人消费指数初值，前者报在6.5%，预期值和前值分别均为5.4%。美联储最青睐的通胀指标核心个人消费指数，则报在4.9%，符合预期，但高于4.6%的前值。面对如此高的通胀，且未来由于油价处于高位、供应链问题仍持续，通胀短期难以下行，加之失业率只有3.9%，再不紧缩，美联储将面临巨大的政治、社会压力，毕竟在美国盒饭、牛奶价格都飞涨了50%以上。美股远未跌完受到超高通胀的制约，过去十多年屡试不爽的央行“看跌期权”逐步失效，美股将持续下跌。当然，积累了十多年低利率下股市不断走升的“牛市惯性”，下跌进程中难免会伴随着反弹，直到多头彻底绝望。“我认为市场会继续下挫，但由于我们现在已经进入了超卖区间，因此在下挫的进程中不排除会有反弹，但我认为不太会持续。”资深交易员、City Index分析师Joe Perry对笔者表示，“利率攀升会导致未来现金的折现率提高，这将导致估值承压，成长型科技公司的利润率将受到冲击。此外，盈利虽然没有下修，但盈利结果仅是符合预期或小幅超出预期，业绩指引却弱于预期。这一系列因素都会导致成长型科技股继续下挫。”| 纳斯达克100指数他提及，此前奈飞（Netflix）的指引不及预期，市场预计新增订阅用户数将新增超500万，但其实只增加了285万；微软的业绩符合预期，但预计一季度的云计算业务收入会下降；特斯拉发布的业绩超出预期，但供应链问题还是会贯穿2022年，或影响出货量。市场关注的大公司虽然表现尚可，但也存在隐患，也是为何此前微软业绩发布时股价一度大跌，特斯拉也是如此。除了最易受到冲击的科技股，波动率更低的标普500指数前景也不容乐观。“我认为标普500指数有进一步下行空间，今天股指正好维持在了200日均线附近，我认为会进一步下跌，未来可能看向3800点，这也是2020年秋季的最低点到2022年1月初最高点行情的50%回档位。”他称。“加息+缩表+高通胀”的组合对股市而言是致命的。关键在于，油价很可能会在2022年继续冲高，导致已经居高不下的通胀再度面临上行压力。不乏机构预计，在俄罗斯和乌克兰的地缘政治冲突下，油价很可能会冲破100美元大关，即使没有这一重要因素，库存下降也将导致油价攀升。佩里表示：“油价仍会有上行空间，尤其是考虑到俄罗斯和乌克兰之间的紧张局势，而且OPEC的产量无法攀升，一季度的确可能会冲击100美元大关，不过二三季度的可能性更大，届时原油需求也会攀升。”目前，俄罗斯乌克兰边境的紧张局势加剧，上周双方表示会在两周内进一步交涉，但这期间仍可能引发巨大的不确定性。美国国务卿此前警告说，“如果俄罗斯再增派一支部队进入乌克兰，就会触发美国的反应”，并命令美国大使馆人员离开乌克兰。英国外交部估计，目前约有100,000名俄罗斯军人在边境集结。国际资管机构认为，更有可能的情况是达成外交回应，全面武装冲突似乎不太可能，景顺（Invesco）认为原因在于：来自美国和欧盟的严重金融制裁；取消途径乌克兰的北溪2号管道；可能永久性地令欧盟转为摆脱对俄罗斯能源的依赖。目前，俄罗斯天然气占西欧总能源消耗的9%左右，俄罗斯石油占全球石油产量的10%左右。俄罗斯似乎在经济上面临太多风险，无法进行这场赌博。因此，更有可能的情况是达成外交回应：如果北约承诺停止与乌克兰进行政治和军事接触，并且允许北溪2号管道项目进入欧盟国家，俄罗斯将撤出军队。这可以立即缓解高涨的能源价格，尤其是天然气价格。如果发生武装冲突怎么办？全球石油供应将大受影响。在这种情况下，分析师预计石油供应将出现每日230万桶的下降，这将推动油价几乎翻倍至每桶150美元左右，从而使全球GDP下降1.6%。这将对西方国家的通胀造成巨大的上行压力。许多主要央行可能会先发制人地提高政策利率，从而抑制经济反弹。但其实从投资角度来看，不管乌克兰发生什么，投资者增持能源板块是合理的，因为：它可以很好地对冲通胀。强劲的全球需求应使价格保持高位，而军事行动可能导致的严重供应中断只会进一步推动能源价格上涨。A股中枢下移转视中国股市，美国货币紧缩，美股跌了。中国货币宽松，但A股跌得更多。这又是怎么回事？1月至今（1月26日）沪深300指数下跌4.6%。但接受笔者采访的机构人士普遍认为，2月建议保持淡定，不急于加仓。中航信托方面表示，去年12月经济数据不及预期，房地产投资、销售、新开工等指标大幅负增长，消费增速下滑。1-2月面临春节假期和冬奥会，疫情防控形势更严重，消费会比较弱。房地产处于淡季，困境房企难有起色，继续拖累经济。宏观经济的亮点仍在外贸上，一季度进出口将承接去年趋势，继续保持较快增长。但是企业盈利滞后于经济周期，经济增速下降将导致一季度企业盈利增速继续下行。政策方面，货币政策已经明显宽松，1月下调中期借贷便利（MLF）和逆回购利率10BP。去年四季度货币宽松是小打小闹，今年货币政策则有明确转向。不过财政发力要等待“两会”后，财政的滞后导致一季度货币政策发力缺乏“着力点”，有劲儿无处使。此外，市场预期美联储将于3月开始加息，年内加息可能会达3-4次，也将抵消一部分国内宽松效果。目前A股的增量资金也不足。公募基金发行从去年四季度已经转弱，1月新发公募基金只有600-700亿。去年四季度开始量化产品业绩较差，遭遇投资者赎回。2021年北上资金大幅流入A股，但在证监会严厉监管“假外资”的背景下，预计今年北上资金流入规模弱于去年。资管新规过渡期结束，从非标资产转向股市的资金转移接近尾声，股市的增量资金来源减少。以近期大幅回撤的新能源赛道股为例，目前投资机构对估值更为关注。若对于30%的复合年化增速（CAGR）的公司来说，给40倍的估值就可能是合理的，但之前给到了50-60倍，甚至上百倍，那必然存在非理性的成分，后续杀估值的可能性就会加大。“至于现在值不值得买，判断也并不难——现在景气度也并未改变，如果估值跌到了30倍，那么就可以获得30%可能赚钱的空间，如果只是回到40倍，那么买入获利的空间则仍然有限。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{".DJI":0.9,".SPX":0.9,".IXIC":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1171,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9987324101,"gmtCreate":1667829109303,"gmtModify":1676537970539,"author":{"id":"3576729709142650","authorId":"3576729709142650","name":"Sunc","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/12ea94f8a6bfc2835bf320bed8216f7d","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3576729709142650","idStr":"3576729709142650"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"ok","listText":"ok","text":"ok","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":7,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9987324101","repostId":"2281414614","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"2281414614","kind":"highlight","pubTimestamp":1667835205,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/2281414614?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2022-11-07 23:33","market":"us","language":"en","title":"2 Growth Stocks That Could Soar 133% to 226% From Their 52-Week Lows, According to Wall Street","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2281414614","media":"Motley Fool","summary":"These growth stocks have fallen sharply amid the bear market, but investors have good reason to be bullish on both companies.","content":"<div>\n<p>The stock market has crumbled this year. High inflation and rising interest rates have caused the S&P 500 to dive headlong into a bear market. The broad-based index is currently 21% off its high, but ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://www.fool.com/investing/2022/11/06/2-growth-stocks-could-soar-226-from-52-week-low/\">Source Link</a>\n\n</div>\n","source":"fool_stock","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>2 Growth Stocks That Could Soar 133% to 226% From Their 52-Week Lows, According to Wall Street</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n2 Growth Stocks That Could Soar 133% to 226% From Their 52-Week Lows, According to Wall Street\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2022-11-07 23:33 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://www.fool.com/investing/2022/11/06/2-growth-stocks-could-soar-226-from-52-week-low/><strong>Motley Fool</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>The stock market has crumbled this year. High inflation and rising interest rates have caused the S&P 500 to dive headlong into a bear market. The broad-based index is currently 21% off its high, but ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://www.fool.com/investing/2022/11/06/2-growth-stocks-could-soar-226-from-52-week-low/\">Source Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"GLBE":"Global-E Online Ltd.","SHOP":"Shopify Inc"},"source_url":"https://www.fool.com/investing/2022/11/06/2-growth-stocks-could-soar-226-from-52-week-low/","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2281414614","content_text":"The stock market has crumbled this year. High inflation and rising interest rates have caused the S&P 500 to dive headlong into a bear market. The broad-based index is currently 21% off its high, but many individual growth stocks have fared even worse. For instance, Shopify and Global-e Online have seen their share prices tumble 80% and 73%, respectively, leaving both stocks near 52-week lows.However, some Wall Street analysts remain upbeat. Paul Treiber of RBC Capital has a price target on Shopify of $55 per share, 133% higher than its 52-week low of $23.63. And James Faucette of Morgan Stanley has a price target of $51 per share on Global-e Online, which implies 226% upside from its 52-week low of $15.63.Is it time to buy these growth stocks?Shopify: Omnichannel commerce made easyShopify is the central nervous system for over two million businesses. Its software simplifies commerce by enabling merchants to manage multiple sales channels from a single platform, including online marketplaces like Amazon, social media like Instagram, and direct-to-consumer (D2C) websites. Shopify also provides adjacent solutions for payment processing, financing, and marketing, among others.The company has struggled in the current economic environment. Revenue climbed just 22% to $1.4 billion in the third quarter, and the company posted an adjusted loss of $0.02 per share, compared to an adjusted profit of $0.08 per share last year. Worse yet, Shopify may continue to struggle until inflation normalizes and consumer spending rebounds. But these temporary headwinds are obscuring its true potential. In fact, RBC analyst Paul Treiber recently called Shopify \"one of the most compelling long-term growth stories.\"According to G2 Grid, Shopify is the most popular e-commerce software in terms of market presence, and Shopify Plus -- its commerce suite for larger companies -- is the second most popular platform. That success stems from its support for omnichannel commerce. While marketplace operators herd sellers onto one platform, Shopify helps brands grow across virtually any channel. That includes brick-and-mortar stores and D2C websites, which gives brands complete control over the buyer experience -- something they lack on a marketplace like Amazon -- and can increase the odds of lasting customer relationships.That means Shopify is set to capitalize on a large and growing addressable market. E-commerce sales worldwide are expected to increase 10% annually to reach $7.4 trillion by 2025, according to eMarketer. Better yet, Shopify has a particularly strong foothold in North America. It powered 10.3% of retail e-commerce sales in the U.S. last year -- second only to Amazon -- and that market is expected to grow 12% annually to reach $1.5 trillion by 2025.Currently, shares trade at about 8.5 times sales, an absolute bargain compared to the three-year average of over 36 times sales. That creates a compelling buying opportunity, though investors shouldn't expect triple-digit returns in the next year. The macroeconomic environment is far too uncertain to warrant that type of near-term optimism.Global-e Online: Cross-border e-commerce made easyGlobal-e simplifies cross-border e-commerce by helping merchants optimize their digital stores for international buyers. The Global-e platform localizes details like language, currency, and payment options, and it surfaces data-driven insights to help merchants understand shopper behavior on a market-by-market basis. Those services boost international conversion rates, often by more than 60%, according to the company.Additionally, Global-e provides fulfillment services through a partner network of shipping carriers, and it offers support for returns and customer service. Better yet, its platform removes much of the regulatory complexity associated with international expansion by helping merchants calculate and pay import duties and foreign sales tax. In a nutshell, Global-e makes it easy for businesses to move into new markets, and that value proposition has the company growing like gangbusters.In the second quarter, Global-e saw gross merchandise volume (GMV) soar 64% to $534 million as more brands joined the platform. That feat is particularly impressive given the state of the global economy. In turn, quarterly revenue jumped 52% to $87 million, and the company posted positive free cash flow (FCF) of $30 million. That equates to an impressive FCF margin of 34%.Better yet, investors have good reason to believe that momentum will continue. Cross-border e-commerce sales will total $736 billion in 2023, according to Forrester Research, but Global-e handled just $990 million in GMV through the first half of 2022. That puts the company in front of a massive opportunity, and management has set in motion a strong growth strategy. For instance, Global-e powers Shopify Markets Pro, a sophisticated cross-border solution that makes it possible for Shopify merchants to expand into more than 150 markets overnight.Currently, shares trade at just over 11 times sales, a discount to the historic average of nearly 25. That's why investors should consider buying this growth stock, though Global-e is best viewed as a long-term investment. Triple-digit returns are in the cards but only with enough time for the company to expand into its huge market.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"SHOP":0.9,"GLBE":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":510,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9936739717,"gmtCreate":1662822973240,"gmtModify":1676537146516,"author":{"id":"3576729709142650","authorId":"3576729709142650","name":"Sunc","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/12ea94f8a6bfc2835bf320bed8216f7d","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3576729709142650","idStr":"3576729709142650"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"ok","listText":"ok","text":"ok","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":7,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9936739717","repostId":"2266415879","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":424,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9050611953,"gmtCreate":1654181318373,"gmtModify":1676535408185,"author":{"id":"3576729709142650","authorId":"3576729709142650","name":"Sunc","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/12ea94f8a6bfc2835bf320bed8216f7d","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3576729709142650","idStr":"3576729709142650"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"ok","listText":"ok","text":"ok","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9050611953","repostId":"2240239335","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"2240239335","kind":"highlight","pubTimestamp":1654175018,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/2240239335?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2022-06-02 21:03","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"The \"small non-farm payrolls\" in May fell short of expectations. Is there a reason for the Fed to suspend rate hike in September?","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2240239335","media":"金十数据","summary":"周四晚间公布的美国5月ADP就业人数录得增加12.8万人，创2020年2月以来最小就业人数增幅，远低于预期的增加30万人，前值从增加24.7万人下修至20.2万人。数据公布后，现货金银短线上涨，美元指","content":"<p><html><head></head><body>Announced late Thursday<b>U.S. ADP employment recorded an increase of 128,000 in May, the smallest increase in employment since February 2020, well below the expected increase of 300,000</b>, the previous value was revised down from an increase of 247,000 to 202,000.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/27680a8b32476b76878bbf7f4bc4332d\" tg-width=\"951\" tg-height=\"679\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p>After the data was released, spot gold and silver rose in the short term, and the US Dollar Index remained volatile below 102.2. The intraday gain of the euro against the US dollar expanded to 0.50% and is now at 1.0698.</p><p>ADP chief economist Nela Richardson said monthly new jobs are closer to pre-pandemic levels against the backdrop of a tight labor market and high inflation.</p><p>Fewer new jobs were added this month, mainly because small business employment dropped significantly. Richardson said:</p><p>\"The pace of job growth has slowed across all sectors, while the situation for small businesses remains a concern as they struggle to keep pace with large companies that have been booming recently.\" The ADP report specifically showed that trade/transportation/utility employment increased by 0.8 million in May and 15,000 in April; Employment in the construction industry decreased by 2,000 in May and increased by 16,000 in April; Manufacturing employment increased by 22,000 in May and 25,000 in April; Professional/business services employment increased by 23,000 in May and 50,000 in April; Employment in the financial services industry increased by 10,000 in May and 8,000 in April.</p><p>According to institutional analysis, U.S. companies added fewer jobs than expected in May, indicating that although U.S. job vacancies were close to record levels in May, companies were still struggling to recruit from a limited workforce. Persistently high inflation and falling savings rates could entice more Americans to work in the coming months.</p><p><b>Such a development is good news for the Fed, which hopes that higher labor force participation rates will reduce demand for workers, thereby slowing wage growth and inflation.</b>That could take a while to materialize, as a separate report on Wednesday showed U.S. jobs fell in April from the previous month's record level but remained elevated, roughly double the number of U.S. unemployed people.</p><p>In addition, considering that ADP data has always been a forward-looking indicator of non-farm payrolls report, ADP's lower-than-expected performance is not good news for Friday's non-farm payrolls. However, a cooling labor market will go a long way to help the Fed control inflation while guiding the economy to a soft landing, which could mean that the Fed's rate hike will be lower than the market is currently pricing in.</p><p></body></html></p>","source":"xnew_highlight","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>The \"small non-farm payrolls\" in May fell short of expectations. Is there a reason for the Fed to suspend rate hike in September?</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nThe \"small non-farm payrolls\" in May fell short of expectations. Is there a reason for the Fed to suspend rate hike in September?\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">金十数据</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2022-06-02 21:03</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><html><head></head><body>Announced late Thursday<b>U.S. ADP employment recorded an increase of 128,000 in May, the smallest increase in employment since February 2020, well below the expected increase of 300,000</b>, the previous value was revised down from an increase of 247,000 to 202,000.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/27680a8b32476b76878bbf7f4bc4332d\" tg-width=\"951\" tg-height=\"679\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p>After the data was released, spot gold and silver rose in the short term, and the US Dollar Index remained volatile below 102.2. The intraday gain of the euro against the US dollar expanded to 0.50% and is now at 1.0698.</p><p>ADP chief economist Nela Richardson said monthly new jobs are closer to pre-pandemic levels against the backdrop of a tight labor market and high inflation.</p><p>Fewer new jobs were added this month, mainly because small business employment dropped significantly. Richardson said:</p><p>\"The pace of job growth has slowed across all sectors, while the situation for small businesses remains a concern as they struggle to keep pace with large companies that have been booming recently.\" The ADP report specifically showed that trade/transportation/utility employment increased by 0.8 million in May and 15,000 in April; Employment in the construction industry decreased by 2,000 in May and increased by 16,000 in April; Manufacturing employment increased by 22,000 in May and 25,000 in April; Professional/business services employment increased by 23,000 in May and 50,000 in April; Employment in the financial services industry increased by 10,000 in May and 8,000 in April.</p><p>According to institutional analysis, U.S. companies added fewer jobs than expected in May, indicating that although U.S. job vacancies were close to record levels in May, companies were still struggling to recruit from a limited workforce. Persistently high inflation and falling savings rates could entice more Americans to work in the coming months.</p><p><b>Such a development is good news for the Fed, which hopes that higher labor force participation rates will reduce demand for workers, thereby slowing wage growth and inflation.</b>That could take a while to materialize, as a separate report on Wednesday showed U.S. jobs fell in April from the previous month's record level but remained elevated, roughly double the number of U.S. unemployed people.</p><p>In addition, considering that ADP data has always been a forward-looking indicator of non-farm payrolls report, ADP's lower-than-expected performance is not good news for Friday's non-farm payrolls. However, a cooling labor market will go a long way to help the Fed control inflation while guiding the economy to a soft landing, which could mean that the Fed's rate hike will be lower than the market is currently pricing in.</p><p></body></html></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> source：<a href=\"https://xnews.jin10.com/webapp/details.html?id=95010&type=news\">金十数据</a></p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/bd9672d160f9bac4a5f05775101f1d22","relate_stocks":{"161125":"标普500","513500":"标普500ETF","SSO":"2倍做多标普500ETF-ProShares","IVV":"标普500ETF-iShares","QLD":"2倍做多纳斯达克100指数ETF-ProShares","SPY":"标普500ETF","BK4504":"桥水持仓","SDOW":"三倍做空道指30ETF-ProShares","OEF":"标普100指数ETF-iShares","TQQQ":"纳指三倍做多ETF","BK4559":"巴菲特持仓","DXD":"两倍做空道琼30指数ETF-ProShares",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index","DJX":"1/100道琼斯","DDM":"2倍做多道指ETF-ProShares",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite","BK4550":"红杉资本持仓","QID":"两倍做空纳斯达克指数ETF-ProShares","SDS":"两倍做空标普500 ETF-ProShares","DOG":"道指ETF-ProShares做空","OEX":"标普100","SQQQ":"纳指三倍做空ETF","BK4581":"高盛持仓","PSQ":"做空纳斯达克100指数ETF-ProShares","QQQ":"纳指100ETF","UDOW":"三倍做多道指30ETF-ProShares","UPRO":"三倍做多标普500ETF-ProShares",".DJI":"道琼斯","BK4534":"瑞士信贷持仓","SPXU":"三倍做空标普500ETF-ProShares","SH":"做空标普500-Proshares"},"source_url":"https://xnews.jin10.com/webapp/details.html?id=95010&type=news","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2240239335","content_text":"周四晚间公布的美国5月ADP就业人数录得增加12.8万人，创2020年2月以来最小就业人数增幅，远低于预期的增加30万人，前值从增加24.7万人下修至20.2万人。数据公布后，现货金银短线上涨，美元指数维持在102.2之下波动。欧元兑美元日内涨幅扩大至0.50%，现报1.0698。ADP首席经济学家Nela Richardson表示，在劳动力市场紧俏和通胀高企的的背景下，月度新增工作岗位更接近疫情前的水平。本月新增就业人数较少，主要是因为小企业就业人数大幅下降。Richardson称：“所有行业的就业增长速度都有所放缓，与此同时小企业情况仍然令人担忧，因为它们难以跟上最近蓬勃发展的大公司的步伐。”ADP报告具体显示，5月贸易/运输/公用事业就业人数增加0.8万人，4月增加1.5万人；5月建筑业就业人数减少0.2万人，4月增加1.6万人；5月制造业就业人数增加2.2万人，4月增加2.5万人；5月专业/商业服务就业人数增加2.3万人，4月增加5万人；5月金融服务业就业人数增加1万人，4月增加0.8万人。机构分析称，美国企业5月份新增就业岗位低于预期，这表明，尽管美国5月份的职位空缺接近创纪录水平，企业仍难以从有限的员工中招聘。在未来几个月里，持续的高通胀和不断下降的储蓄率可能会吸引更多的美国人去工作。这样的发展对美联储而言是个好消息，因为美联储希望劳动力参与率的提高来降低对工人的需求，进而减缓工资增长和通货膨胀。这可能需要一段时间才能实现，因为周三的另一份报告显示，美国4月份的就业机会较上月创纪录水平有所下降，但仍处于高位，大约是美国失业人数的两倍。另外，考虑到ADP数据向来是非农就业报告的前瞻指标，ADP不及预期的表现对于周五的非农而言并不是一个好消息。不过，劳动力市场的降温将大大有助于美联储控制通胀，同时引导经济实现软着陆，这可能意味着美联储的加息幅度将低于市场目前的定价。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"161125":0.6,"513500":0.6,"SPXU":0.6,"TQQQ":0.6,"UPRO":0.6,"PSQ":0.6,"QLD":0.6,"SDOW":0.6,"SSO":0.6,"SDS":0.6,".IXIC":1,"QQQ":0.6,"UDOW":0.6,"QID":0.6,"SH":0.6,"NQmain":0.6,".DJI":1,"DOG":0.6,"MNQmain":0.6,"IVV":0.6,"SPY":1,"ESmain":0.6,"DXD":0.6,"DDM":0.6,"OEF":0.6,"OEX":0.6,"SQQQ":0.6,".SPX":0.6,"DJX":0.6}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":365,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9039968830,"gmtCreate":1645886728612,"gmtModify":1676534072590,"author":{"id":"3576729709142650","authorId":"3576729709142650","name":"Sunc","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/12ea94f8a6bfc2835bf320bed8216f7d","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3576729709142650","idStr":"3576729709142650"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"ok","listText":"ok","text":"ok","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":5,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9039968830","repostId":"2214180192","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"2214180192","kind":"highlight","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"经济观察报官方账号","home_visible":1,"media_name":"经济观察报","id":"1014835943","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/53947f6c3e232c366cc0bd0fd311397d"},"pubTimestamp":1645859010,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/2214180192?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2022-02-26 15:03","market":"hk","language":"zh","title":"Chinese faces in Ukraine, how are they doing now","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2214180192","media":"经济观察报","summary":"留学并留在乌克兰的中国人不在少数。","content":"<p><div>(Photo source: Oriental IC) Reporter: Xie Chuchu Song Di evacuated At around 6 a.m. local time on February 24, Roland was awakened by the sound of a phone call. Her friend told her that the war had begun and told her to evacuate Kiev. She quickly told her family to get up and pack their clothes and bags, and ran to the west with a few students. On February 24, Beijing time, Russian President Vladimir Putin decided to conduct military operations in Donbas. On the same day, explosions were heard in Kiev, the capital of Ukraine, and other cities. Just as Roland was loading his luggage in the trunk, a military plane roared overhead. Roland was shocked and hurriedly set off on his way. \"This is the closest I've ever been to a war.\"...</p><p><a href=\"\">Web link</a></div></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Chinese faces in Ukraine, how are they doing now</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nChinese faces in Ukraine, how are they doing now\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/1014835943\">\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/53947f6c3e232c366cc0bd0fd311397d);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">经济观察报 </p>\n<p class=\"h-time smaller\">2022-02-26 15:03</p>\n</div>\n</a>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><div>(Photo source: Oriental IC) Reporter: Xie Chuchu Song Di evacuated At around 6 a.m. local time on February 24, Roland was awakened by the sound of a phone call. Her friend told her that the war had begun and told her to evacuate Kiev. She quickly told her family to get up and pack their clothes and bags, and ran to the west with a few students. On February 24, Beijing time, Russian President Vladimir Putin decided to conduct military operations in Donbas. On the same day, explosions were heard in Kiev, the capital of Ukraine, and other cities. Just as Roland was loading his luggage in the trunk, a military plane roared overhead. Roland was shocked and hurriedly set off on his way. \"This is the closest I've ever been to a war.\"...</p><p><a href=\"\">Web link</a></div></p>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1b6f0ea65681c95c05fc970eb3496d5d","relate_stocks":{"000001.SH":"上证指数"},"source_url":"","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2214180192","content_text":"（图片来源：东方IC）记者：谢楚楚 宋笛撤离当地时间2月24日早上6点多，罗兰被电话声吵醒，朋友告诉她战争开始了，让她最好撤离基辅。她赶紧叫家人起来收拾衣服、打包行李，带着几个学生，奔往西部。北京时间2月24日，俄罗斯总统普京决定在顿巴斯进行军事行动，同日，乌克兰首都基辅等城市传出爆炸声。就在罗兰往后备箱装行李时，一架军事飞机从头顶轰鸣而过，罗兰心中一惊，赶忙启程上路。“这是我离战争最近的一次。”罗兰说。小心翼翼，一路向西，罗兰看到了坦克部队在对面逆向而过，沿途的加油站排起了长队，“只能付现金”。直到当晚抵达位于乌克兰西北部的罗夫诺州，罗兰才安顿下来，四周静悄悄的，没有了枪炮的声音，但一家人依然睡得心惊胆战。罗兰对战争的爆发早有预期，经历过2014年乌克兰革命的罗兰颇具警觉性，此前数天，她就已经把家里的护照和文件收拾妥当，并储备了一定的食物和生活用品。与警觉的罗兰不同，一些在乌华人没有选择逃离基辅。一位在乌克兰从事医药贸易的华人告诉经济观察报，她昨晚一夜没睡，躲在防空洞里，一直到2月25日下午才敢回家中收拾东西，准备撤侨回国。截稿前，这位华人又回到地下车库躲避，当地已经实行宵禁，因为车库信号不好，她在出车库临时回复国内长辈信息时才抽空告知记者她的现状，随后又匆匆赶回车库。2月22日，中国驻乌克兰大使馆网站发出了一份请中国公民注意安全的提醒，提醒中提及“乌克兰东部局势发生重大变化”，2月24日又一次发布该提醒；2月25日，大使馆发布紧急通知请拟自乌克兰撤离中国公民进行登记，通知表示为准备分批包机接返有关事宜，现开始人员登记。搭乘包机根据自愿原则。包机派出时间根据飞行安全情况确定，届时将提前通知。李牧之已经下定决心，不打算撤离，他还不清楚大使馆会怎样安排相关人员，比如资费、隔离政策等，他觉得如果要隔离“14+7”天，那还不如留在这里。李牧之乐观地判断，目前局势不太会影响到普通老百姓和居民，回国的必要性不大。李牧之是一位赴乌克兰留学的中国学生。2月24日凌晨四五点左右，睡梦中的李牧之被国内亲戚朋友频繁发来的信息轰炸至醒。在亲戚朋友口中得知俄罗斯将对乌克兰发起军事攻击之后，他决定下楼看看具体情况，因为他并没有听到任何大的动静。李牧之住在距离基辅市中心不远的地方。当地时间24日下午，李牧之来到基辅市中心街道，发现一些媒体在做采访，街上人变少了，除了卖衣服的大型商场、KFC、麦当劳等饮食餐厅关门之外，大型超市、医院、银行、药店未关门。但各个地方都需要排队。在前往市中心了解情况时，李牧之发现地铁是免费开放的，地铁上能看到一些人已经打包好行李准备离开，周边社区出现了少数穿制服的警察，但未看到士兵。他听说，基辅有些人选择了去其他城市避难，有些人选择了在防空洞里面睡觉。“但我们就在家待着，绝大多数人还是在家里待着”。王旭就是在家呆着的其中一位，他在乌克兰的哈尔科夫市，“炮弹不长眼，也不知道安全不安全”，在截稿前一个半小时，还发生了一场持续两三分钟的空袭，王旭赶紧把食物转移到车库内，地下车库聚集了很多邻居。此外，乌克兰已经进入战争状态，按照当地法律，军队有权征用车辆，王旭也不打算去其他的城市，“最好还是呆在家里”。李牧之的一位朋友住在敖德萨，这也是俄军所涉之处。听闻局势动荡，李牧之的朋友也拿起了单反相机外出拍摄记录。他告诉李牧之，外面一切安好。生计与生活直到2月24日，王旭觉得在乌克兰的一切都在正常进行，尽管与俄罗斯矛盾已经持续了若干年。2007年，王旭来到乌克兰留学，因为“当地的留学费用毕竟低一些”，毕业后，王旭留在了一家中国企业的乌克兰分公司，从事机床零件贸易，主要做的是俄语区的贸易。他的妻子是乌克兰人，哈尔科夫是一座“说大不大，说小不小”的城市，上班之外，周末的时间就是和朋友聚会，在附近的商场转一转。像王旭这样，留学并留在乌克兰的中国人不在少数。2009年，因为家里企业和乌克兰有合作，罗兰来到乌克兰留学，毕业后留在了当地，与一名中国留学生相识相爱，走入婚姻。罗兰对教育很感兴趣，在大学毕业后，罗兰和朋友因缘际会下创业，做了一家留学机构，这两年公司发展还不错。目前，罗兰一家在基辅买了房和车，两个孩子也在基辅上学，一个5岁，一个3岁，一家人保持中国国籍。疫情之前，他们一年回中国一到两次，疫情后回国不太方便。战争打响后，罗兰被朋友拉入一些华人互助群，群里互相交换信息提供帮助，比如有人会报安全的防空洞地址，有人要去西部，车上还有空位会在群里问有没有人要拼车。据中国驻乌克兰大使馆发布的信息，在乌中国公民约6000人，包括中资企业、留学生和华侨等，主要分布在基辅、利沃夫、哈尔科夫、敖德萨和苏梅等地。2019年，李牧之曾赴乌克兰旅游，2021年6月底再次来到乌克兰留学，虽然这个国家的“昔日辉煌”已不再，但李牧之还是很喜欢它，他决定在这个国家生活一段时间，“乌克兰人外表生冷，内心火热”，李牧之说。如果战争没有发生，李牧之还能照常约朋友到基辅独立广场碰面，在第聂伯河河边散步。但面对如此局面，李牧之并不感到意外。“2014年到现在，他们小规模的战争其实就没停过，只是双方原来的事态没发展到这么严重。这么多年以来，乌克兰边境地区顿涅茨克和俄罗斯的边境地区，一直在擦枪走火”。贸易网络上的中国面孔2021年5月30日，装载着100个标准集装箱的中欧班列自广州白云大朗铁路货运站启程，目的地是乌克兰第四大城市敖德萨。行程全程为8408公里，预计行驶25天，车辆上满载着割草机、电饭锅、茶叶等货物，货重约646吨，货值1059万元人民币。这是华南地区首趟直达乌克兰的中欧班列，也是中国首列开往敖德萨的中欧班列。自2020年开通以来，中国直达乌克兰的中欧班列已经开行57列。2019年，乌克兰海关统计，该年一季度，乌克兰对华贸易占比超过俄罗斯，中国成为乌克兰的第一大贸易伙伴。在2021年，乌克兰与全球235个国家开展了对外贸易。其中，对中国出口最多，达到80多亿元，其中包括1700多万吨铁矿石，823万吨玉米以及300余万吨大麦；同时又从中国进口了100余亿元商品，主要是三轮车、踏板车、踏板汽车等，还包括电话机、杀虫剂以及箱包日用品等。2022年1月14日，新华社刚刚刊发了一篇题为《2021年中乌务实合作取得丰硕成果——访中国驻乌克兰大使范先荣》的文章，范先荣在接受采访时表示，“2021年中乌务实合作在双边贸易、生产投资、交通往来等多方面亮点纷呈。面对新冠肺炎疫情冲击，双边务实合作展现出强劲韧性和巨大潜力”。俄乌冲突也让国内的贸易商也受到了影响。义乌的部分乌克兰贸易企业已经暂时停摆。义乌小商品城的商户告诉经济观察报，目前市场内不安排做发往乌克兰的货品，即使送到了外贸公司也要拉回来，已经在宁波港口的也准备撤回义乌仓库。另一位长期从事对乌贸易的出口企业也收到了对方暂停发货的通知，“什么时候能恢复，我也预计不到。”他说。乌克兰何时能够恢复常态？尚无人能够给出一个准确的信息，但一些华人已经开始怀念此前平凡而日常的生活。“希望早一天能结束，能恢复一切，如常的平静，对老百姓能正常的生活，我觉得这就够了。”李牧之说。福建商人孙晨来乌克兰27年了，主要做鞋的批发生意。他判断战争很难短时间停下来，因此如果撤侨包机来了，肯定会考虑先回国的，之后就要看当地的情况了。“毕竟在这有车有房的，乌克兰百姓也好，（生活）已经习惯了，这里也算得上是第二个故乡。”孙晨说。王旭也希望在政局稳定后再回来，毕竟积累的业务资源都在这里，如果要离开乌克兰，就意味着要重新开始。罗兰一家人都非常喜欢在乌克兰的生活，不打仗的日子是平凡且幸福的，但她深知，乌克兰并不是一个太平的国度。他们在驱车往西的路上，罗兰收到大使馆的消息，大使馆正在统计回国的人数，罗兰一家人都报名了，目前他们正在等待大使馆通知什么时候、以什么方式回到中国。“如果需要我们就撤，但战争结束后我们还想回来，因为我们的房子、车子和工作都在这里。”罗兰说。（应受访者要求，文中罗兰、孙晨为化名）","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"000001.SH":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":526,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9092900076,"gmtCreate":1644502767286,"gmtModify":1676533934149,"author":{"id":"3576729709142650","authorId":"3576729709142650","name":"Sunc","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/12ea94f8a6bfc2835bf320bed8216f7d","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3576729709142650","idStr":"3576729709142650"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"ok","listText":"ok","text":"ok","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":5,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9092900076","repostId":"2210980598","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"2210980598","kind":"highlight","pubTimestamp":1644495276,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/2210980598?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2022-02-10 20:14","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"It's really different this time? How to understand the Fed's new \"improvisation\" framework","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2210980598","media":"华尔街见闻","summary":"在新一轮加息周期中，数据的可预测性太低了。","content":"<p><html><head></head><body><b>Summary:</b><b>In 2022, the Fed's monetary policy will accelerate its shift to \"data dependence\", but the problem is that in the new rate hike cycle, the predictability of data is too low.</b>In the FOMC statement in January, the Federal Reserve mentioned that \"soon\" will be \"suitable\" for rate hike, clearly indicating that rate hike in March is coming. However, regarding the specific policy path, Powell repeatedly emphasized in the question and answer session of the press conference,<b>Officials did not make any decision, and said that the FOMC needs to remain nimble and does not rule out any options.</b></p><p>\"We will make decisions based on the data that will be released next and the evolving outlook,\" Powell said.</p><p><b>This statement creates an uncertain atmosphere for the market:</b>How many times will the Fed rate hike this year? Will there be a sharp rate hike of 50 basis points in previous meetings? Point in time in shrinking balance sheet? These issues remain ambiguous.</p><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/UBS\">UBS</a>Analyst Jonathan Pingle pointed out in a recent report that the January FOMC meeting focused on nimble when answering which policy rate path is the most appropriate, which means that the Fed's monetary policy will change from the \"new normal\" to \"nimble\" in 2022. \"flexibility\" and will accelerate the shift to \"data dependence.\"</p><p>This sounds similar to Yellen's emphasis that rate hike will be based on economic data, and it also seems to correspond to an earlier \"discretion\".</p><p>So, how to understand this new \"improvisation\" framework of the Federal Reserve? UBS believes that this time is different from the \"data dependence\" of Yellen's era, so what is the difference? What does it mean for the market?</p><p><h2>The new framework of \"improvising\": the essence is still to maintain discretion</h2>The January meeting largely abandoned forward guidance, apart from saying a rate hike would begin \"soon\".</p><p>Powell first stated at the press conference that he would not rule out the possibility of rate hike at every meeting, throwing out the most serious situation, but then Fed officials delivered speeches one after another, with a more moderate style and room.</p><p>For now, basically all officials have hit back at the March rate hike of 50 basis points, and most officials seem to be hinting at about four rate hike of 25 basis points this year.</p><p>Many officials also expressed<b>Policy will follow data</b>Signal of:</p><p>Atlanta Fed President Bostic initially said that he could rate hike 50 basis points at a time if necessary, but then immediately \"changed his mind\" and said that rate hike's 50 basis points was not his preferred policy action in March; He said in an article in the Financial Times that he wanted three rate hike in 2022,<b>But other possibilities are not ruled out.</b>He also said: \"I think the message the chairman is trying to convey is:<b>We are not on any particular track. The data will tell us what happened.</b>Minneapolis Fed President Neal Kashkari said on January 28: \"We hope that price pressures will naturally ease as supply chain issues resolve, which means the Fed has to do less. Now, the committee has signaled that most officials believe there may be three rate hike this year, about 25 basis points each.<b>However, we must see the corresponding data.</b>\"San Francisco Fed President Daly said on January 31:\" A lot of reference is appropriate. Assuming there are 4 rate hike in 2022 and interest rates reach 1.25%, this is quite a tightening, but it is also quite a lot of room left in the system, because the neutral rate is 2.5%, which is still supporting the economy, not causing disruption.<b>I think this balance is the proper way to deal with the uncertainty we face.</b>Philadelphia Fed President Patrick Harker said on February 1: \"Can we rate hike 50 basis points at a time? Yes. But should we? I'm not so sure about that right now...<b>If inflation stays where it is now and continues to decline, I don't think it will be a 50 basis point rate hike.</b>UBS believes that,<b>Officials began with quarterly rate hike, sidestepping the inference that the market is rate hike at every meeting, leaving open the option of accelerating or slowing policy later.</b></p><p>The current UBS baseline forecast is that the FOMC will withdraw its easing policy by rate hike of 25 basis points each quarter (March, June, September and December) this year, and start shrinking the balance sheet at the May FOMC meeting (or possibly no later than the July meeting).</p><p>However, the bank believes that,<b>This path will be highly dependent on data, especially inflation data and data reflecting the outlook for inflation. Among them, the inflation data in May will be a watershed affecting the policy direction:</b></p><p>If inflation data unexpectedly continues to rise in the first half of the year (all the way through May), then in the second half of the year, the FOMC may shift from quarterly rate hike to a rhythm of rate hike per meeting, and the June FOMC meeting may start to convey the signal of July rate hike, and then at subsequent meetings, as needed, a consecutive rate hike of 25 basis points. In turn, the FOMC may also pause rate hike if inflation starts to weaken in the second half of the year. This suggests that the new framework retains the \"flexibility\" options the Fed needs in the second half of this year, while, in essence, the Fed is still maintaining discretion.</p><p><h2>It's really different this time?</h2>The Federal Reserve has always avoided using certain fixed rules to restrict its monetary policy decisions. For example, during the Yellen period, in order to maintain discretion, the Federal Reserve often pushed theory first and constantly updated the framework with innovative academic research results.</p><p>In the Powell era, especially after the outbreak of the epidemic, this tendency became more obvious. The media even used \"Powell's Federal Reserve looks like Greenspan's time\" to describe Powell's emphasis on discretion and refusal to be rules and regulations.</p><p>But discretion has its drawbacks. Without a firm commitment, it is harder for the Fed to convince markets that it is serious about achieving its 2% inflation target.</p><p>However, UBS believes that<b>The Fed's \"data dependency\" today is quite different than it was in the previous 20 years</b>, during Yellen's tenure as Fed president, although the Fed's policy had a very clear \"data dependence\", Yellen often said, \"the policy did not follow the preset route\", but the rate hike path at that time basically followed a stable and predictable pattern.</p><p>For example, in June 2015, San Francisco Fed President Williams spoke after the then FOMC meeting and said, \"What does this mean for interest rates? As I said, policy is data-dependent.\" The speech ended with \"I can't tell you the specific rate hike date … but I can't anyway …\".</p><p>But at that meeting, the median Fed forecast for fourth quarter 2015 GDP was 1.8%-2.0%. The final result proved that GDP in the fourth quarter was 1.9%.</p><p>This shows that the Federal Reserve at that time had a large extent of control over economic data, and the Federal Reserve could set the policy path in advance, but this time it was really different.</p><p>Because in the new rate hike cycle, the predictability of data is too low.</p><p>Take the most critical inflation data as an example,<b>Professional Forecasters in Recent Philadelphia Fed Survey on Q4 2021 GDP Deflator</b>(a common measure of inflation)<b>The predicted dispersion of, as high as the peak during the financial crisis.</b>This increased uncertainty is reminiscent of the years leading up to the 1990s, the decades before the so-called \"Great Moderation of Inflation\".</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d232bcee9b0a618cc8142eb1fd2438bd\" tg-width=\"583\" tg-height=\"480\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>At present, there are many differences among analysts about future inflation expectations, and the supply chain disruption caused by the epidemic is undoubtedly one of the disruptive factors.</p><p>In addition, some analysts believe that, compared with the flattening of Phillips curve during the \"great easing of inflation\" period (referring to the decline of unemployment rate, which did not bring about the increase of inflation rate), today's economic environment-globalization trend has been reversed in 2008, the downward trend of capital factor prices is facing zero interest rate constraints, the global demographic dividend is drifting away, the burden of an aging society is getting heavier and heavier, and monetary policy has quietly reduced the weight of stabilizing inflation.</p><p>Today's Fed faces greater challenges, with a more uncertain economic outlook and far more volatile macroeconomic data. In the eyes of professional forecasters, even for the past fourth quarter, economic forecasts are very divergent.</p><p>Therefore, UBS believes that data dependency may be an escape during the Great Moderation, but<b>Data dependencies in the current context are necessary.</b>Given the widespread uncertainty and data volatility, the FOMC has no choice.</p><p><h2>Policy will run the risk of more instability</h2>Although the Fed's new \"improvisation\" framework helps it respond to various possible outcomes in a timely manner, to repeat the previous article, discretion has its shortcomings. For the market, this flexibility also means less predictability, possibly less regularity.</p><p>In addition, if the central bank relies on data, which is more volatile than in recent history, this means that policy is also at risk of more volatile, which also represents another source of macroeconomic volatility.</p><p>And UBS said,<b>Central banks' reliance on data with increased volatility will be part of a new era of macroeconomics.</b></p><p></body></html></p>","source":"wallstreetcn_api","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>It's really different this time? How to understand the Fed's new \"improvisation\" framework</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nIt's really different this time? How to understand the Fed's new \"improvisation\" framework\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">华尔街见闻</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2022-02-10 20:14</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><html><head></head><body><b>Summary:</b><b>In 2022, the Fed's monetary policy will accelerate its shift to \"data dependence\", but the problem is that in the new rate hike cycle, the predictability of data is too low.</b>In the FOMC statement in January, the Federal Reserve mentioned that \"soon\" will be \"suitable\" for rate hike, clearly indicating that rate hike in March is coming. However, regarding the specific policy path, Powell repeatedly emphasized in the question and answer session of the press conference,<b>Officials did not make any decision, and said that the FOMC needs to remain nimble and does not rule out any options.</b></p><p>\"We will make decisions based on the data that will be released next and the evolving outlook,\" Powell said.</p><p><b>This statement creates an uncertain atmosphere for the market:</b>How many times will the Fed rate hike this year? Will there be a sharp rate hike of 50 basis points in previous meetings? Point in time in shrinking balance sheet? These issues remain ambiguous.</p><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/UBS\">UBS</a>Analyst Jonathan Pingle pointed out in a recent report that the January FOMC meeting focused on nimble when answering which policy rate path is the most appropriate, which means that the Fed's monetary policy will change from the \"new normal\" to \"nimble\" in 2022. \"flexibility\" and will accelerate the shift to \"data dependence.\"</p><p>This sounds similar to Yellen's emphasis that rate hike will be based on economic data, and it also seems to correspond to an earlier \"discretion\".</p><p>So, how to understand this new \"improvisation\" framework of the Federal Reserve? UBS believes that this time is different from the \"data dependence\" of Yellen's era, so what is the difference? What does it mean for the market?</p><p><h2>The new framework of \"improvising\": the essence is still to maintain discretion</h2>The January meeting largely abandoned forward guidance, apart from saying a rate hike would begin \"soon\".</p><p>Powell first stated at the press conference that he would not rule out the possibility of rate hike at every meeting, throwing out the most serious situation, but then Fed officials delivered speeches one after another, with a more moderate style and room.</p><p>For now, basically all officials have hit back at the March rate hike of 50 basis points, and most officials seem to be hinting at about four rate hike of 25 basis points this year.</p><p>Many officials also expressed<b>Policy will follow data</b>Signal of:</p><p>Atlanta Fed President Bostic initially said that he could rate hike 50 basis points at a time if necessary, but then immediately \"changed his mind\" and said that rate hike's 50 basis points was not his preferred policy action in March; He said in an article in the Financial Times that he wanted three rate hike in 2022,<b>But other possibilities are not ruled out.</b>He also said: \"I think the message the chairman is trying to convey is:<b>We are not on any particular track. The data will tell us what happened.</b>Minneapolis Fed President Neal Kashkari said on January 28: \"We hope that price pressures will naturally ease as supply chain issues resolve, which means the Fed has to do less. Now, the committee has signaled that most officials believe there may be three rate hike this year, about 25 basis points each.<b>However, we must see the corresponding data.</b>\"San Francisco Fed President Daly said on January 31:\" A lot of reference is appropriate. Assuming there are 4 rate hike in 2022 and interest rates reach 1.25%, this is quite a tightening, but it is also quite a lot of room left in the system, because the neutral rate is 2.5%, which is still supporting the economy, not causing disruption.<b>I think this balance is the proper way to deal with the uncertainty we face.</b>Philadelphia Fed President Patrick Harker said on February 1: \"Can we rate hike 50 basis points at a time? Yes. But should we? I'm not so sure about that right now...<b>If inflation stays where it is now and continues to decline, I don't think it will be a 50 basis point rate hike.</b>UBS believes that,<b>Officials began with quarterly rate hike, sidestepping the inference that the market is rate hike at every meeting, leaving open the option of accelerating or slowing policy later.</b></p><p>The current UBS baseline forecast is that the FOMC will withdraw its easing policy by rate hike of 25 basis points each quarter (March, June, September and December) this year, and start shrinking the balance sheet at the May FOMC meeting (or possibly no later than the July meeting).</p><p>However, the bank believes that,<b>This path will be highly dependent on data, especially inflation data and data reflecting the outlook for inflation. Among them, the inflation data in May will be a watershed affecting the policy direction:</b></p><p>If inflation data unexpectedly continues to rise in the first half of the year (all the way through May), then in the second half of the year, the FOMC may shift from quarterly rate hike to a rhythm of rate hike per meeting, and the June FOMC meeting may start to convey the signal of July rate hike, and then at subsequent meetings, as needed, a consecutive rate hike of 25 basis points. In turn, the FOMC may also pause rate hike if inflation starts to weaken in the second half of the year. This suggests that the new framework retains the \"flexibility\" options the Fed needs in the second half of this year, while, in essence, the Fed is still maintaining discretion.</p><p><h2>It's really different this time?</h2>The Federal Reserve has always avoided using certain fixed rules to restrict its monetary policy decisions. For example, during the Yellen period, in order to maintain discretion, the Federal Reserve often pushed theory first and constantly updated the framework with innovative academic research results.</p><p>In the Powell era, especially after the outbreak of the epidemic, this tendency became more obvious. The media even used \"Powell's Federal Reserve looks like Greenspan's time\" to describe Powell's emphasis on discretion and refusal to be rules and regulations.</p><p>But discretion has its drawbacks. Without a firm commitment, it is harder for the Fed to convince markets that it is serious about achieving its 2% inflation target.</p><p>However, UBS believes that<b>The Fed's \"data dependency\" today is quite different than it was in the previous 20 years</b>, during Yellen's tenure as Fed president, although the Fed's policy had a very clear \"data dependence\", Yellen often said, \"the policy did not follow the preset route\", but the rate hike path at that time basically followed a stable and predictable pattern.</p><p>For example, in June 2015, San Francisco Fed President Williams spoke after the then FOMC meeting and said, \"What does this mean for interest rates? As I said, policy is data-dependent.\" The speech ended with \"I can't tell you the specific rate hike date … but I can't anyway …\".</p><p>But at that meeting, the median Fed forecast for fourth quarter 2015 GDP was 1.8%-2.0%. The final result proved that GDP in the fourth quarter was 1.9%.</p><p>This shows that the Federal Reserve at that time had a large extent of control over economic data, and the Federal Reserve could set the policy path in advance, but this time it was really different.</p><p>Because in the new rate hike cycle, the predictability of data is too low.</p><p>Take the most critical inflation data as an example,<b>Professional Forecasters in Recent Philadelphia Fed Survey on Q4 2021 GDP Deflator</b>(a common measure of inflation)<b>The predicted dispersion of, as high as the peak during the financial crisis.</b>This increased uncertainty is reminiscent of the years leading up to the 1990s, the decades before the so-called \"Great Moderation of Inflation\".</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d232bcee9b0a618cc8142eb1fd2438bd\" tg-width=\"583\" tg-height=\"480\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>At present, there are many differences among analysts about future inflation expectations, and the supply chain disruption caused by the epidemic is undoubtedly one of the disruptive factors.</p><p>In addition, some analysts believe that, compared with the flattening of Phillips curve during the \"great easing of inflation\" period (referring to the decline of unemployment rate, which did not bring about the increase of inflation rate), today's economic environment-globalization trend has been reversed in 2008, the downward trend of capital factor prices is facing zero interest rate constraints, the global demographic dividend is drifting away, the burden of an aging society is getting heavier and heavier, and monetary policy has quietly reduced the weight of stabilizing inflation.</p><p>Today's Fed faces greater challenges, with a more uncertain economic outlook and far more volatile macroeconomic data. In the eyes of professional forecasters, even for the past fourth quarter, economic forecasts are very divergent.</p><p>Therefore, UBS believes that data dependency may be an escape during the Great Moderation, but<b>Data dependencies in the current context are necessary.</b>Given the widespread uncertainty and data volatility, the FOMC has no choice.</p><p><h2>Policy will run the risk of more instability</h2>Although the Fed's new \"improvisation\" framework helps it respond to various possible outcomes in a timely manner, to repeat the previous article, discretion has its shortcomings. For the market, this flexibility also means less predictability, possibly less regularity.</p><p>In addition, if the central bank relies on data, which is more volatile than in recent history, this means that policy is also at risk of more volatile, which also represents another source of macroeconomic volatility.</p><p>And UBS said,<b>Central banks' reliance on data with increased volatility will be part of a new era of macroeconomics.</b></p><p></body></html></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> source：<a href=\"https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3651603\">华尔街见闻</a></p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4f6ec6e99c0c8b9feb7f296b78c65a54","relate_stocks":{"SPY":"标普500ETF",".DJI":"道琼斯",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite"},"source_url":"https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3651603","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2210980598","content_text":"摘要：2022年美联储货币政策将加速转向“数据依赖性”，但问题在于在新一轮加息周期中，数据的可预测性太低了。在1月的FOMC声明中，美联储提到“很快”将“适合”加息，清晰地表明3月加息即将到来，不过对于具体的政策路径，鲍威尔在新闻发布会问答环节多次强调，官员们并未做出任何决定，并表示FOMC需要保持灵活应变（\"nimble\"），不排除任何选择。鲍威尔表示，“我们将根据接下来公布的数据和不断演变的前景去做决定”。这番表述给市场营造了一种不确定的氛围：美联储今年到底会加息几次？前几次会议是否会大幅加息50个基点？缩表的时间点？这些问题仍然不明确。瑞银分析师Jonathan Pingle在最近的报告中指出，1月FOMC会议在回答哪条政策利率路径最为合适时，重点提到了灵活应变（nimble），这意味着2022美联储货币政策从“新常态”转变为“灵活应变”，并将加速转向“数据依赖性”。这听上去与耶伦当年强调加息将基于经济数据的理念似曾相似，也似乎可以对应到更早一点的“自由裁量权”（discretion）。那么，如何理解美联储这种“随机应变”式新框架？瑞银认为这一次与耶伦时期的“数据依赖”不一样，那到底哪儿不一样？对于市场来说意味着什么？“随机应变”式新框架：本质仍是保持自由裁量权除了表示“很快”就开始加息外，1月会议基本放弃了前瞻性指引。鲍威尔先是在发布会上表示不排除每次会议都加息的可能性，将最为严重的情况抛了出来，但随后美联储官员陆续发表讲话，风格又更加温和和留有余地。目前，基本上所有官员都对3月加息50个基点进行了回击，大多数官员似乎都在暗示今年大约将加息4次，每次25个基点。很多官员也表达了政策将遵循数据的信号：亚特兰大联储主席博斯蒂克一开始表示如有必要可以一次加息50基点，但随后又立马“改口”称，加息50个基点不是他在3月份的首选政策行动；他在英国《金融时报》的一篇文章中表示，希望2022年加息三次，但不排除其他可能性。他还表示：“我认为主席想要传达的信息是：我们没有走上任何特定的轨道。数据会告诉我们发生了什么。”明尼阿波利斯联储主席尼尔·卡什卡里1月28日表示：“我们希望物价压力会随着供应链问题解决而自然得到缓解，这意味着美联储不得不做得更少。现在，委员会已经发出信号，大多数官员认为今年可能会有三次加息，每次大约25个基点。但是，我们必须看到相应的数据。”旧金山联储主席戴利1月31日表示：“多多参考才是合适的。假设2022年加息4次，利率达到1.25%，这是相当大的紧缩，但也是系统中留下的相当大的空间，因为中性利率是2.5%，这仍然在支持经济，而不是造成破坏。我认为这种平衡是应对我们面临的不确定性的恰当方式。”费城联储主席帕特里克·哈克2月1日表示：“我们能一次加息50个基点吗？可以的。但我们应该吗？我现在不太确定这一点……如果通胀保持在现在的水平，并继续下降，我不认为会加息50个基点。”瑞银认为，官员们以季度加息开始，回避了市场每次会议都加息的推断，保留了以后加速或放缓政策的选项。目前瑞银的基线预测是，FOMC将通过今年每个季度（3月、6月、9月和12月）加息25个基点来撤走宽松政策，并在5月的FOMC会议（或可能不迟于7月的会议）上开始缩减资产负债表。然而，该行认为，这条路径将高度依赖于数据，尤其是通胀数据以及反映通胀前景的数据。其中，5月份的通胀数据将是影响政策走向的分水岭：如果上半年（一直到5月）通胀数据出人意料地继续上升，那么在今年下半年，FOMC可能会从季度加息转向每次会议加息的节奏，6月FOMC会议可能会开始传达7月加息的信号，然后在随后的会议上，根据需要，连续加息25个基点。反过来，如果下半年通胀开始走软，FOMC也可能会暂停加息。这表明，新框架保留了美联储今年下半年所需的“灵活应变”的选择权，而从本质上看，美联储仍是在保持自由裁量权。这次真的不一样？美联储一直避免使用某种固定的规则来约束自己的货币政策决策，如在耶伦时期，为了保持自由裁量权，美联储常常推动理论先行，以创新性的学术研究成果来对框架不断更新。到了鲍威尔时代，尤其在疫情爆发后，这样的倾向更加明显。媒体甚至用“鲍威尔的美联储仿佛格林斯潘时的模样”来形容鲍威尔强调自由裁量，拒绝条条框框。但是自由裁量权有其缺点。在没有坚定承诺的情况下，美联储更难让市场相信，其实现2%的通胀目标是认真的。不过，瑞银认为，如今美联储的“数据依赖”与之前20年的情况截然不同，在耶伦作为联储主席的时期，尽管美联储政策有着非常明确的“数据依赖性”，耶伦经常说，“政策并没有按照预先设定的路线走”，但当时的加息路径基本上遵循了一种稳定、可预测的模式。比如2015年6月，旧金山联储主席Williams在当时的FOMC会议后发表讲话说：“这对利率意味着什么？正如我所说的，政策是依赖数据的。”演讲以“我不能告诉你具体加息日期……但无论如何我不能……”结束。但在那次会议上，美联储对2015年第四季度GDP的预测中值为1.8%-2.0%。最终结果证明，四季度GDP为1.9%。这说明，当时的美联储对经济数据很大程度上是有掌控的，美联储是可以预先设定政策路径的，然而这一次真的不一样。因为在新一轮加息周期中，数据的可预测性太低了。拿最关键的通胀数据来说，近期费城联储调查的专业预测员对2021年第四季度GDP平减指数（衡量通货膨胀的常用指标）的预测离散度，高达金融危机期间的峰值。这种不确定性的增加让人想起上世纪90年代之前的那些年，也就是所谓的“通胀大缓和”之前的几十年。当下对于未来通胀的预期，分析师存在很多分歧，疫情导致的供应链中断无疑是其中的扰乱因素之一。除此之外，有分析师认为，与“通胀大缓和”时期菲利普斯曲线平坦化（指失业率下降，并没有带来通胀率的上升）相对的是，如今的经济环境——全球化趋势已经在2008年出现逆转，资本要素价格下行面临零利率约束，全球人口红利渐行渐远，老龄化社会的负担越来越重，货币政策也悄然降低了稳通胀的权重，货币当局不仅面临着更复杂的权衡，还需谨慎维护其独立性，这些因素都是呼唤通胀回归和菲利普斯曲线“复活”的力量。今天的美联储面临着更大的挑战，经济前景更加不确定，宏观经济数据的波动性要大得多。在专业预测人士眼中，即使是对已经过去的第四季度，经济预测分歧也非常大。因此，瑞银认为，在“大缓和”时期，数据依赖可能是一种逃避，但当前背景下的数据依赖性是必要的。考虑到广泛的不确定性和数据波动性，FOMC别无选择。政策将有更不稳定的风险虽然美联储“随机应变”式的新框架有助于其及时应对各种可能的结果，但重复一下前文，自由裁量权是有其缺点的，对于市场而言，这种灵活性也意味着更少的可预测性，可能更少的规律性。除此之外，如果央行依赖于数据，而数据相比近代历史更不稳定，这意味着政策也有更不稳定的风险，这也代表着宏观经济波动的另一个来源。而瑞银表示，央行对波动性加剧的数据的依赖，将是宏观经济新时代的一部分。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"SPY":1,".IXIC":1,".DJI":1}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":563,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9091587062,"gmtCreate":1643900334650,"gmtModify":1676533869444,"author":{"id":"3576729709142650","authorId":"3576729709142650","name":"Sunc","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/12ea94f8a6bfc2835bf320bed8216f7d","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3576729709142650","idStr":"3576729709142650"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"ok","listText":"ok","text":"ok","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":5,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9091587062","repostId":"2208360102","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"2208360102","kind":"news","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"中国大陆领先的金融数据、信息和软件服务企业，总部位于上海陆家嘴金融中心。","home_visible":1,"media_name":"Wind万得","id":"99","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c71e30d1317b4a5cb20a41998e10ac68"},"pubTimestamp":1643859305,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/2208360102?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2022-02-03 11:35","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"Goldman Sachs believes that now is a good opportunity for U.S. stocks to \"buy on dips\". What is the basis?","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2208360102","media":"Wind万得","summary":"如果历史可以作为参考的话，修正很少会变成熊市，除非经济进入衰退。","content":"<p><html><head></head><body>The S&P500 entered correction territory last week as the Federal Reserve'S policy adjustment caused violent market shock, but<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/GS\">Goldman Sachs</a>(Goldman Sachs) believes that this pullback signals a buying opportunity for investors.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e07529cfcbc79b3b7da46d82d5631d26\" tg-width=\"840\" tg-height=\"470\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p>The Wall Street firm said that if history is any reference, a correction rarely turns into a bear market unless the economy enters a recession. \"From a historical perspective, S&P 500 revisions are usually good buying opportunities,\" David Kostin, head of U.S. equity strategy at Goldman Sachs, said in a note. \"If the economy is not entering a recession, a market correction is usually a good buying opportunity.\"</p><p>The Federal Reserve said last week it would raise interest rates soon, the first time in more than three years, as part of a sweeping tightening of historically accommodative monetary policy.<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/JPM\">JPMorgan Chase</a>Chief U.S. economist Michael Feroli said Powell was the toughest since he became chairman. Powell reiterated that the current tightening cycle is different from the previous one, with a strong labor market, a strong economy and above-target inflation.</p><p>Feroli believes: \"Although Powell has not yet made a clear statement, he made it clear that continuous rate hike in consecutive meetings is a possibility, and this is also a risk we have been paying attention to.\"</p><p>\"The Fed is now chasing inflation and in a panic,\" said Diane Swonk, chief economist at Grant Thornton, who was more hawkish in his comments than the initial statement. It affirms the Fed's stance.</p><p>The shift has triggered a significant increase in volatility on Wall Street recently, with investors struggling to reprice assets based on interest rate risk. The S&P 500 index fell about 7% in January, down 8% from its record high at the beginning of the month; It was also the worst month since March 2020.</p><p>Tech stocks led the decline in the new year as investors dumped high and sometimes unprofitable stocks. The Nasdaq Composite fell about 12% in January and is down 15% from its all-time high. Still, Goldman notes that a 10% adjustment is not unusual in a given calendar year.</p><p>According to Goldman Sachs, since 1928, the S&P 500 has experienced a median peak-to-trough decline of 13% in a calendar year, with corrections of more than 10% in 62% of years. Goldman Sachs said that since 1950, the S&P 500 has seen 33 pullbacks of 10% or more, with the midpoint lasting about five months, with a decline of 18% from high to trough.</p><p>If investors bought the S&P 500 10% below its high, regardless of whether it was the rock bottom at that time, the average investor return was 15% over the subsequent 12 months, the company said. Goldman Sachs said that in 21 non-recession adjustments, the S&P 500 usually falls 15%.</p><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/DB\">Deutsche Bank</a>About halfway through earnings season, the number of companies with sales and profits beating Wall Street expectations is higher than average, albeit lower than levels seen early in the recovery, according to an analysis by Deutsche Bank.</p><p>However, Maneesh Deshpande, managing director of Barclays Capital, said that corporate performance has been good, but the considerations include not only the Fed's changes in monetary policy, but also the Fed's rate hike in a seemingly weak economy. \"Both of those things are a problem now,\" he said. \"This time, the earnings may not save the day.\"</p><p></body></html></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Goldman Sachs believes that now is a good opportunity for U.S. stocks to \"buy on dips\". What is the basis?</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nGoldman Sachs believes that now is a good opportunity for U.S. stocks to \"buy on dips\". What is the basis?\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/99\">\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/c71e30d1317b4a5cb20a41998e10ac68);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">Wind万得 </p>\n<p class=\"h-time smaller\">2022-02-03 11:35</p>\n</div>\n</a>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><html><head></head><body>The S&P500 entered correction territory last week as the Federal Reserve'S policy adjustment caused violent market shock, but<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/GS\">Goldman Sachs</a>(Goldman Sachs) believes that this pullback signals a buying opportunity for investors.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e07529cfcbc79b3b7da46d82d5631d26\" tg-width=\"840\" tg-height=\"470\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p>The Wall Street firm said that if history is any reference, a correction rarely turns into a bear market unless the economy enters a recession. \"From a historical perspective, S&P 500 revisions are usually good buying opportunities,\" David Kostin, head of U.S. equity strategy at Goldman Sachs, said in a note. \"If the economy is not entering a recession, a market correction is usually a good buying opportunity.\"</p><p>The Federal Reserve said last week it would raise interest rates soon, the first time in more than three years, as part of a sweeping tightening of historically accommodative monetary policy.<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/JPM\">JPMorgan Chase</a>Chief U.S. economist Michael Feroli said Powell was the toughest since he became chairman. Powell reiterated that the current tightening cycle is different from the previous one, with a strong labor market, a strong economy and above-target inflation.</p><p>Feroli believes: \"Although Powell has not yet made a clear statement, he made it clear that continuous rate hike in consecutive meetings is a possibility, and this is also a risk we have been paying attention to.\"</p><p>\"The Fed is now chasing inflation and in a panic,\" said Diane Swonk, chief economist at Grant Thornton, who was more hawkish in his comments than the initial statement. It affirms the Fed's stance.</p><p>The shift has triggered a significant increase in volatility on Wall Street recently, with investors struggling to reprice assets based on interest rate risk. The S&P 500 index fell about 7% in January, down 8% from its record high at the beginning of the month; It was also the worst month since March 2020.</p><p>Tech stocks led the decline in the new year as investors dumped high and sometimes unprofitable stocks. The Nasdaq Composite fell about 12% in January and is down 15% from its all-time high. Still, Goldman notes that a 10% adjustment is not unusual in a given calendar year.</p><p>According to Goldman Sachs, since 1928, the S&P 500 has experienced a median peak-to-trough decline of 13% in a calendar year, with corrections of more than 10% in 62% of years. Goldman Sachs said that since 1950, the S&P 500 has seen 33 pullbacks of 10% or more, with the midpoint lasting about five months, with a decline of 18% from high to trough.</p><p>If investors bought the S&P 500 10% below its high, regardless of whether it was the rock bottom at that time, the average investor return was 15% over the subsequent 12 months, the company said. Goldman Sachs said that in 21 non-recession adjustments, the S&P 500 usually falls 15%.</p><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/DB\">Deutsche Bank</a>About halfway through earnings season, the number of companies with sales and profits beating Wall Street expectations is higher than average, albeit lower than levels seen early in the recovery, according to an analysis by Deutsche Bank.</p><p>However, Maneesh Deshpande, managing director of Barclays Capital, said that corporate performance has been good, but the considerations include not only the Fed's changes in monetary policy, but also the Fed's rate hike in a seemingly weak economy. \"Both of those things are a problem now,\" he said. \"This time, the earnings may not save the day.\"</p><p></body></html></p>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2578fef036607345dce47cc401e172a3","relate_stocks":{".DJI":"道琼斯"},"source_url":"","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2208360102","content_text":"标准普尔500指数(S&P 500)上周一度进入回调区间，因美联储(Federal Reserve)的政策调整造成市场剧烈震荡，但高盛(Goldman Sachs)认为，此次回落标志着投资者有买入机会。这家华尔街公司说，如果历史可以作为参考的话，修正很少会变成熊市，除非经济进入衰退。“从历史角度看，标普500指数修正通常是良好的买入机会，”高盛美国股市策略主管David Kostin在报告中称。“如果经济没有进入衰退，市场调整通常是好的买入机会。”美联储上周表示，将很快提高利率，这是三年多来的首次，是历来宽松的货币政策全面收紧的一部分。摩根大通首席美国经济学家Michael Feroli表示，鲍威尔是担任主席以来最强硬的一次。鲍威尔重申，当前的紧缩周期与上一个周期不同，劳动力市场强劲，经济强劲，通胀高于目标。Feroli认为：“虽然鲍威尔仍未明确表态，但他明确表示，在连续的会议上不断加息是一种可能，这也是我们一直在关注的风险。”均富(Grant Thornton)首席经济学家黛安斯旺克(Diane Swonk)表示：“美联储现在正在追逐通胀，陷入了恐慌。”他的评论比最初的声明更加强硬。它肯定了美联储的立场。这一转变引发了华尔街最近波动显著增加，投资者艰难地根据利率风险对资产进行重新定价。标准普尔500指数1月下跌了约7%，较当月初的纪录高点下跌了8%；这也是自2020年3月以来最糟糕的一个月。在新的一年里，科技股领跌，投资者纷纷抛售高企、有时无利可图的股票。纳斯达克综合指数1月份下跌了约12%，较历史高点下跌了15%。不过，高盛指出，在一个给定的日历年里，10%的调整并不罕见。据高盛的数据，自1928年以来，标准普尔500指数经历了一个日历年中值13%的从高峰到低谷的下跌，62%的年份中有超过10%的修正。高盛说，自1950年以来，标普500指数已经出现了33次10%或以上的回调，中间值持续了约五个月，其中从高点到谷底的跌幅为18%。该公司表示，如果投资者在比高点低10%的水平买入标准普尔500指数，无论当时是否是谷底，那么在随后的12个月里，投资者的平均回报率为15%。高盛说，在21次非衰退调整中，标普500指数通常下跌15%。德意志银行(Deutsche Bank)的一项分析显示，在财报季约过半之际，销售和利润超过华尔街预期的公司数量高于平均水平，尽管低于复苏初期的水平。不过巴克莱资本(Barclays Capital)董事总经理Maneesh Deshpande表示，企业业绩一直不错，但考虑因素不仅包括美联储改变货币政策，还包括美联储在看似疲弱的经济中加息。“这两件事现在都是个问题，”他说。“这一次，收益可能无法挽救局面。”","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{".DJI":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":750,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9961197985,"gmtCreate":1668870400347,"gmtModify":1676538123254,"author":{"id":"3576729709142650","authorId":"3576729709142650","name":"Sunc","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/12ea94f8a6bfc2835bf320bed8216f7d","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3576729709142650","idStr":"3576729709142650"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"ok","listText":"ok","text":"ok","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":4,"commentSize":2,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9961197985","repostId":"2284770337","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"2284770337","kind":"highlight","pubTimestamp":1668823624,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/2284770337?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2022-11-19 10:07","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Why Coinbase Stock Is Down Another 7% on Friday","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2284770337","media":"Motley Fool","summary":"The cryptocurrency exchange is sinking again after another analyst chimed in about its potential downsides.","content":"<div>\n<p>What happenedAmid the crypto market turmoil generated by the collapse of FTX, many investors are worried about how its fellow exchange operator Coinbase will perform from here. This week has been a ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://www.fool.com/investing/2022/11/18/why-coinbase-stock-is-down-another-7-today/\">Source Link</a>\n\n</div>\n","source":"fool_stock","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Why Coinbase Stock Is Down Another 7% on Friday</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nWhy Coinbase Stock Is Down Another 7% on Friday\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2022-11-19 10:07 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://www.fool.com/investing/2022/11/18/why-coinbase-stock-is-down-another-7-today/><strong>Motley Fool</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>What happenedAmid the crypto market turmoil generated by the collapse of FTX, many investors are worried about how its fellow exchange operator Coinbase will perform from here. This week has been a ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://www.fool.com/investing/2022/11/18/why-coinbase-stock-is-down-another-7-today/\">Source Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"COIN":"Coinbase Global, Inc."},"source_url":"https://www.fool.com/investing/2022/11/18/why-coinbase-stock-is-down-another-7-today/","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2284770337","content_text":"What happenedAmid the crypto market turmoil generated by the collapse of FTX, many investors are worried about how its fellow exchange operator Coinbase will perform from here. This week has been a mixed bag. Coinbase stock initially surged on the expectation that the bankruptcy of a key competitor could lead to the U.S.-focused crypto exchange gaining market share. But over the course of  Wednesday and Thursday, the company's shares sank by more than 12%. The declines continued Friday morning, with Coinbase stock plunging by another 7.1% as of 11:58 a.m. ET.Friday's decline appears to have been spurred by a bearish analyst note from Bank of America. Analyst Jason Kupferberg slashed the price target on Coinbase from $77 per share to $50 per share, and cut its rating from buy to neutral. Last week, Goldman Sachs slashed its price target on Coinbase to $41 per share from $49 per share, and maintained its sell rating.So whatIt's clear that analysts have reason to be bearish about Coinbase. While it's one of the most prominent centralized crypto exchanges, contagion fears have put investors and analysts in a difficult position. On the one hand, FTX's implosion offers the potential for Coinbase to capture more market share and trading volume. On the other, declining aggregate trading activity and systemic risks may lead to further valuation compression, at least in the near term.Interestingly, neither the Bank of America nor the Goldman Sachs analysts are worried that Coinbase will be the next FTX, and they generally took the view that it's relatively well-insulated from the FTX fallout. However, the Bank of America note succinctly summarized three risks for those holding Coinbase stock right now: \"Dampened trading activity thanks to weaker confidence in crypto, delayed regulatory clarity and the possibility that contagion leads to an even wider fallout for the industry.\"Now whatCoinbase's stock price has been under pressure throughout the year due primarily to its underwhelming earnings results and concerns around potential margin degradation. In that sense, the fallout from the FTX collapse could be seen as a net positive, as that exchange was among the lowest-fee options for traders, and therefore put downward pressure on its peers' trading fees.That said, this year's underperformance has led Coinbase management to undertake multiple rounds of layoffs. It has cut more than 18% of its workforce so far. Like many other tech companies, Coinbase appears to have built an infrastructure that's too big for the current market. With crypto valuations remaining on a bearish trajectory, it's unclear whether trading volumes will eventually recover, or whether they will remain permanently stunted.In this market, investors appear to be taking a similar view to Wall Street analysts. Trading at roughly $46 per share, Coinbase is now within spitting distance of its all-time low.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"COIN":1}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":426,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9057359803,"gmtCreate":1655469904402,"gmtModify":1676535645663,"author":{"id":"3576729709142650","authorId":"3576729709142650","name":"Sunc","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/12ea94f8a6bfc2835bf320bed8216f7d","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3576729709142650","idStr":"3576729709142650"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"ok","listText":"ok","text":"ok","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":4,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9057359803","repostId":"1112682991","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1112682991","kind":"news","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"市场策略研究、热点问题观察、分享最新观点：美国与海外市场、H股、及中概股市场","home_visible":1,"media_name":"Kevin策略研究","id":"1090746012","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/54c3f16355434883aa8d30b4dc5a7d90"},"pubTimestamp":1655445814,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1112682991?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2022-06-17 14:03","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"Recession fears are resurfacing, when will there be a turnaround?","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1112682991","media":"Kevin策略研究","summary":"周四美股并未能延续6月FOMC会议后相对积极的反应，再度转为大幅回调，纳斯达克指数大跌4%，标普500指数跌幅也超过3.2%，结合美债利率明显回落（从3.4%降至3.2%）以及黄金相应上涨的表现，都说","content":"<p><html><head></head><body>On Thursday, U.S. stocks failed to continue their relatively positive reaction after the June FOMC meeting, and turned into a sharp correction again. The Nasdaq index fell 4%, and the S&P 500 index also fell by more than 3.2%. Combined with the significant decline in US Treasury yields (from 3.4% to 3.2%) and the corresponding rise in gold,<b>All show that the market's trading logic may trigger faster recession fears after turning to concerns about the Fed's too fast rate hike.</b></p><p>This reaction of the market did not completely surprise us. We also mentioned in our comments after the FOMC meeting \"June FOMC: Radical and Forward Path or the Current\" Optimal Solution \"\" that in the current given tightening path and inflation environment, the market is more concerned about whether the Fed can achieve a soft landing.<b>Based on the constraints of growth, tightening and inflation, we expect that the market will still face a tight situation in the third quarter. The U.S. stock market will remain volatile and weak, and it may not be a trend reversal before a turnaround occurs.</b></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/179264f4fbb8a87a09d766e74de30cda\" tg-width=\"947\" tg-height=\"359\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a9001ad82853fa10eced5700c847a646\" tg-width=\"936\" tg-height=\"14\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>So the core now is,<b>Against the backdrop that tightening will continue to increase and inflation will remain high for some time to come, how quickly will growth slide into recession? The follow-up turning point lies in the fact that if the final growth slowdown and recession are inevitable, when can the austerity policy retreat or turn?</b></p><p><b>1. What is the risk of growth recession? According to the current path of rate hike, the pressure will appear by the end of the year or early next year</b></p><p>Although Federal Reserve Chairman Powell said at the press conference after the FOMC meeting that it is not the subjective will of the Federal Reserve to actively guide the recession [1], which means that the Federal Reserve does not want to control inflation by \"sacrificing\" growth, the actual situation is that the interest rate increase brought about by the rapid rate hike would have suppressed demand through the tightening of financial conditions. In this process, the slowdown in the profits of U.S. stock companies is also the general direction (\"U.S. stock earnings enter a downward channel\").</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c680c4d4371f353d0ea7aa942e7a189a\" tg-width=\"948\" tg-height=\"354\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1b6e0e2dfa1a29bee3e30ff3d758af2a\" tg-width=\"939\" tg-height=\"408\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>It is not difficult to see that in the process of monetary tightening, coupled with the current suppression of consumer demand by high inflation and the squeeze of corporate profit margins by high inventory,<b>I'm afraid the general direction of slowing growth is inevitable, but the question is how fast?</b></p><p><b>The change lies in the speed at which financial conditions are tightening.</b>If the Fed wants to \"sacrifice\" growth in its subjective will to achieve the purpose of inflation control, it will not only turn financial conditions positive faster (corresponding to the benchmark interest rate exceeding the natural interest rate R *, or the financing cost exceeding the return on investment), but it will also rise higher, similar to the late 1970s and early 1980s.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/93f302a30e33b96abef549e8c66f3f01\" tg-width=\"935\" tg-height=\"590\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Therefore, the tightness of financial conditions can be used as a leading indicator to judge recessionary pressure, and it can also be used to measure time. Based on the above concept of neutral interest rate and financial conditions, we calculate from the two dimensions of 3m10s interest rate spread, actual financing cost and return on investment of enterprises.<b>According to the current pace of rate hike (after 75bp in rate hike in June, 75bp in rate hike may continue in July, and 50bp in rate hike in September), 3m10s may gradually invert after the third quarter.</b>According to historical experience, the inversion may also correspond to the coming of subsequent recessions; On the other hand, the actual financing cost of enterprises generally exceeds the return on investment by 250bp. After the recession pressure increases (\"How far is the United States from the risk of recession?\"), at present, it may correspond to the end of the year or early next year.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c49c2cced4027cb527c48335ce292909\" tg-width=\"941\" tg-height=\"496\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0ee29f2cb45b3261357f5042b81ba116\" tg-width=\"933\" tg-height=\"436\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><b>2. When will there be a turning point? Let's see when the policy can decline or even turn. The current path is until the end of the year</b></p><p>Since the pressure of slowing growth or even recession is gradually amplifying, when will there be a turnaround?</p><p><b>We believe that the turnaround is not entirely about completely avoiding recession, but more about when policy can retreat or even turn, similar to the situation when the Fed began to send dovish signals in early 2019</b>。 At this time, although there is still more than half a year before the Federal Reserve actually cuts interest rates (July-September), and it will not be until the third quarter before the growth of the United States stabilizes and improves again, the market, especially the style of bonds and growth stocks, can be based on the logic of expectations first. Stabilize or even rebound first. In 1994, the Fed's rapid rate hike of 300bp within one year did not cause the market to \"crash\" to a certain extent, which was also due to this (\"If the Fed rate hike 50bp once\").</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7b557cc7d1d9a5658c21412d9c54a0d9\" tg-width=\"936\" tg-height=\"587\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b7e12768b7f892d35278baac71027b05\" tg-width=\"923\" tg-height=\"677\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><b>According to the rate hike path and dot plot information given by the FOMC meeting in June, this inflection point may not appear until the November-December meeting at the end of the year</b>。 Previously, the market expected a gradual slowdown after September, but last weekend's unexpected inflation data forced the Federal Reserve to guide a steeper tightening path, thus delaying this time.</p><p><b>Whether this subsequent point in time will be postponed or there is a possibility of advancement to a certain extent, it is highly dependent on the path of inflation</b>。 U.S. inflation will usher in a new wave of high base after September. If there are no new surprises (such as geopolitical situation, another surge in oil prices, supply chain shocks, etc.), we expect that the CPI may gradually rise to 6% year-on-year by the end of the year. Around 6%, it is expected to return to around 4% early next year. If this path can be fulfilled, it can provide the possibility for the Fed to slow down at the end of the year. On the contrary, any other unexpected disturbance that makes the inflation path get out of control again will make the current situation get out of control again, and the pressure of austerity and recession will further increase.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/10e89f8d308b526ed510c4db990114b5\" tg-width=\"768\" tg-height=\"469\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/edd7c6fd9892a114ad2ed1040bc4fd41\" tg-width=\"949\" tg-height=\"353\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Based on the above judgments on the path of inflation, growth recession and tightening turning point, we maintain the \"2H22 Overseas Outlook: From Recession Concerns to the Possibility of Soft Landing?\"<b>It is believed that the market in the third quarter may still face a tight state under the \"impossible triangle\" of inflation, austerity, and growth, and at the same time observe whether there can be a turnaround in the fourth quarter and the end of the year</b>。 If a turnaround occurs, it may become an opportunity for the long-term interest rate of U.S. bonds to peak and the market style to return to growth.</p><p>After the major assets have experienced sharp fluctuations, it is not ruled out that there will be repetitions, but it may not be a reversal of the trend before the above turning point occurs. Since we raised the U.S. bond point and lowered the U.S. stock target after the inflation data exceeded expectations last Friday, the trend of the market is basically consistent with our expectations (\"Greater Tightening Pressure, Less Room for Maneuver\"), based on the current rate hike path,<b>We maintain our forecast for US Treasury yields's 3.5% pivot</b>, unless the subsequent rate hike path changes again;<b>The overall volatility of the U.S. stock market is weak, and there may still be some downside</b>(We estimate a reasonable valuation of 14.5 times vs. the current 15.3 times; a dynamic profit contribution of 5% is expected), but it is not currently a liquidity crisis.<b>The same is true of the strength of the US dollar and the weakness of gold</b>。</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c4d5dfc253227e69ffa24b9e3f407615\" tg-width=\"946\" tg-height=\"736\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6f9fee76649eb81c371af8e3cb192675\" tg-width=\"945\" tg-height=\"527\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p></body></html></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Recession fears are resurfacing, when will there be a turnaround?</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nRecession fears are resurfacing, when will there be a turnaround?\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/1090746012\">\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/54c3f16355434883aa8d30b4dc5a7d90);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">Kevin策略研究 </p>\n<p class=\"h-time smaller\">2022-06-17 14:03</p>\n</div>\n</a>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><html><head></head><body>On Thursday, U.S. stocks failed to continue their relatively positive reaction after the June FOMC meeting, and turned into a sharp correction again. The Nasdaq index fell 4%, and the S&P 500 index also fell by more than 3.2%. Combined with the significant decline in US Treasury yields (from 3.4% to 3.2%) and the corresponding rise in gold,<b>All show that the market's trading logic may trigger faster recession fears after turning to concerns about the Fed's too fast rate hike.</b></p><p>This reaction of the market did not completely surprise us. We also mentioned in our comments after the FOMC meeting \"June FOMC: Radical and Forward Path or the Current\" Optimal Solution \"\" that in the current given tightening path and inflation environment, the market is more concerned about whether the Fed can achieve a soft landing.<b>Based on the constraints of growth, tightening and inflation, we expect that the market will still face a tight situation in the third quarter. The U.S. stock market will remain volatile and weak, and it may not be a trend reversal before a turnaround occurs.</b></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/179264f4fbb8a87a09d766e74de30cda\" tg-width=\"947\" tg-height=\"359\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a9001ad82853fa10eced5700c847a646\" tg-width=\"936\" tg-height=\"14\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>So the core now is,<b>Against the backdrop that tightening will continue to increase and inflation will remain high for some time to come, how quickly will growth slide into recession? The follow-up turning point lies in the fact that if the final growth slowdown and recession are inevitable, when can the austerity policy retreat or turn?</b></p><p><b>1. What is the risk of growth recession? According to the current path of rate hike, the pressure will appear by the end of the year or early next year</b></p><p>Although Federal Reserve Chairman Powell said at the press conference after the FOMC meeting that it is not the subjective will of the Federal Reserve to actively guide the recession [1], which means that the Federal Reserve does not want to control inflation by \"sacrificing\" growth, the actual situation is that the interest rate increase brought about by the rapid rate hike would have suppressed demand through the tightening of financial conditions. In this process, the slowdown in the profits of U.S. stock companies is also the general direction (\"U.S. stock earnings enter a downward channel\").</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c680c4d4371f353d0ea7aa942e7a189a\" tg-width=\"948\" tg-height=\"354\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1b6e0e2dfa1a29bee3e30ff3d758af2a\" tg-width=\"939\" tg-height=\"408\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>It is not difficult to see that in the process of monetary tightening, coupled with the current suppression of consumer demand by high inflation and the squeeze of corporate profit margins by high inventory,<b>I'm afraid the general direction of slowing growth is inevitable, but the question is how fast?</b></p><p><b>The change lies in the speed at which financial conditions are tightening.</b>If the Fed wants to \"sacrifice\" growth in its subjective will to achieve the purpose of inflation control, it will not only turn financial conditions positive faster (corresponding to the benchmark interest rate exceeding the natural interest rate R *, or the financing cost exceeding the return on investment), but it will also rise higher, similar to the late 1970s and early 1980s.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/93f302a30e33b96abef549e8c66f3f01\" tg-width=\"935\" tg-height=\"590\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Therefore, the tightness of financial conditions can be used as a leading indicator to judge recessionary pressure, and it can also be used to measure time. Based on the above concept of neutral interest rate and financial conditions, we calculate from the two dimensions of 3m10s interest rate spread, actual financing cost and return on investment of enterprises.<b>According to the current pace of rate hike (after 75bp in rate hike in June, 75bp in rate hike may continue in July, and 50bp in rate hike in September), 3m10s may gradually invert after the third quarter.</b>According to historical experience, the inversion may also correspond to the coming of subsequent recessions; On the other hand, the actual financing cost of enterprises generally exceeds the return on investment by 250bp. After the recession pressure increases (\"How far is the United States from the risk of recession?\"), at present, it may correspond to the end of the year or early next year.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c49c2cced4027cb527c48335ce292909\" tg-width=\"941\" tg-height=\"496\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0ee29f2cb45b3261357f5042b81ba116\" tg-width=\"933\" tg-height=\"436\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><b>2. When will there be a turning point? Let's see when the policy can decline or even turn. The current path is until the end of the year</b></p><p>Since the pressure of slowing growth or even recession is gradually amplifying, when will there be a turnaround?</p><p><b>We believe that the turnaround is not entirely about completely avoiding recession, but more about when policy can retreat or even turn, similar to the situation when the Fed began to send dovish signals in early 2019</b>。 At this time, although there is still more than half a year before the Federal Reserve actually cuts interest rates (July-September), and it will not be until the third quarter before the growth of the United States stabilizes and improves again, the market, especially the style of bonds and growth stocks, can be based on the logic of expectations first. Stabilize or even rebound first. In 1994, the Fed's rapid rate hike of 300bp within one year did not cause the market to \"crash\" to a certain extent, which was also due to this (\"If the Fed rate hike 50bp once\").</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7b557cc7d1d9a5658c21412d9c54a0d9\" tg-width=\"936\" tg-height=\"587\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b7e12768b7f892d35278baac71027b05\" tg-width=\"923\" tg-height=\"677\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><b>According to the rate hike path and dot plot information given by the FOMC meeting in June, this inflection point may not appear until the November-December meeting at the end of the year</b>。 Previously, the market expected a gradual slowdown after September, but last weekend's unexpected inflation data forced the Federal Reserve to guide a steeper tightening path, thus delaying this time.</p><p><b>Whether this subsequent point in time will be postponed or there is a possibility of advancement to a certain extent, it is highly dependent on the path of inflation</b>。 U.S. inflation will usher in a new wave of high base after September. If there are no new surprises (such as geopolitical situation, another surge in oil prices, supply chain shocks, etc.), we expect that the CPI may gradually rise to 6% year-on-year by the end of the year. Around 6%, it is expected to return to around 4% early next year. If this path can be fulfilled, it can provide the possibility for the Fed to slow down at the end of the year. On the contrary, any other unexpected disturbance that makes the inflation path get out of control again will make the current situation get out of control again, and the pressure of austerity and recession will further increase.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/10e89f8d308b526ed510c4db990114b5\" tg-width=\"768\" tg-height=\"469\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/edd7c6fd9892a114ad2ed1040bc4fd41\" tg-width=\"949\" tg-height=\"353\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Based on the above judgments on the path of inflation, growth recession and tightening turning point, we maintain the \"2H22 Overseas Outlook: From Recession Concerns to the Possibility of Soft Landing?\"<b>It is believed that the market in the third quarter may still face a tight state under the \"impossible triangle\" of inflation, austerity, and growth, and at the same time observe whether there can be a turnaround in the fourth quarter and the end of the year</b>。 If a turnaround occurs, it may become an opportunity for the long-term interest rate of U.S. bonds to peak and the market style to return to growth.</p><p>After the major assets have experienced sharp fluctuations, it is not ruled out that there will be repetitions, but it may not be a reversal of the trend before the above turning point occurs. Since we raised the U.S. bond point and lowered the U.S. stock target after the inflation data exceeded expectations last Friday, the trend of the market is basically consistent with our expectations (\"Greater Tightening Pressure, Less Room for Maneuver\"), based on the current rate hike path,<b>We maintain our forecast for US Treasury yields's 3.5% pivot</b>, unless the subsequent rate hike path changes again;<b>The overall volatility of the U.S. stock market is weak, and there may still be some downside</b>(We estimate a reasonable valuation of 14.5 times vs. the current 15.3 times; a dynamic profit contribution of 5% is expected), but it is not currently a liquidity crisis.<b>The same is true of the strength of the US dollar and the weakness of gold</b>。</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c4d5dfc253227e69ffa24b9e3f407615\" tg-width=\"946\" tg-height=\"736\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6f9fee76649eb81c371af8e3cb192675\" tg-width=\"945\" tg-height=\"527\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p></body></html></p>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/cfddc04822f87c80fc564a554e4c2907","relate_stocks":{".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index",".DJI":"道琼斯"},"source_url":"","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1112682991","content_text":"周四美股并未能延续6月FOMC会议后相对积极的反应，再度转为大幅回调，纳斯达克指数大跌4%，标普500指数跌幅也超过3.2%，结合美债利率明显回落（从3.4%降至3.2%）以及黄金相应上涨的表现，都说明市场的交易逻辑在转向担心美联储过快加息后可能引发更快的衰退担忧。市场的这一反应倒并不让我们完全意外，我们在FOMC会议后的点评《6月FOMC：激进且前置的路径或是当前“最优解”》中也提到，在当前给定紧缩路径和通胀的环境下，市场更为关心的是美联储能否实现软着陆。基于增长、紧缩和通胀的约束，我们预计三季度市场仍将面临一个紧绷的局面，美股市场维持震荡偏弱格局，在出现转机前可能还不是趋势逆转。因此，现在的核心在于，在未来一段时间紧缩仍将加码、通胀维持高位的背景下，增长多快滑向衰退？后续转机则在于若最终增长放缓和衰退难以避免，紧缩政策又何时可以退坡或转向？1.增长衰退的风险有多大？按目前加息路径，年底或明年初压力显现尽管美联储主席鲍威尔在FOMC会议后的新闻发布会上表示，主动引导衰退并不会是美联储的主观意愿[1]，也就是意味着美联储并不希望以“牺牲”增长的方式来实现对通胀的控制，但实际的情况是，快速加息所带来的利率抬升，本来就会通过金融条件收紧来抑制需求，例如最为典型的例子就是房贷利率伴随着紧缩预期快速上行，目前已经对成屋和新屋销售产生了明显的抑制效果（《如何理解金融条件收紧的机制与影响》）。在此过程中，美股企业盈利的放缓也是大方向（《美股盈利进入下行通道》）。不难看出，在货币紧缩的过程中，叠加当前高通胀对消费需求的抑制、高库存对企业利润率的挤压，增长趋缓的大方向恐怕是难以避免的，但问题是有多快？这其中的变化就在于金融条件收紧的速度。如果美联储想要在主观意愿上“牺牲”增长来实现对通胀控制的目的，不仅会更快的将金融条件转正（对应基准利率超过自然利率R*、或融资成本超过投资回报率），而且也会抬升的更高，类似于70年代末和80年代初。因此，金融条件的松紧程度可以作为判断衰退压力的领先指标，也可以用于测算时间。我们基于上述中性利率和金融条件的概念，从3m10s利差以及企业实际融资成本与投资回报率两个维度测算，按照当前的加息步伐（6月加息75bp后，7月可能继续加息75bp，9月加息50bp），3m10s有可能会在三季度之后逐步倒挂，而根据历史经验看，倒挂后也可能对应后续衰退的来临；另一方面，企业实际融资成本一般要超过投资回报率250bp以后衰退压力增加（《美国距离衰退风险有多远？》），目前来看可能对应年末或者明年初。2.何时能出现转机契机？看政策何时能够退坡甚至转向，目前路径到年底既然增长放缓甚至衰退的压力也在逐渐放大，那么何时能够出现转机？我们认为转机的出现并不完全在于完全避免衰退，而更多在于政策何时能够退坡甚至转向，类似于2019年初美联储开始传递鸽派信号时的情形。此时，尽管距离美联储真正降息（7~9月）还有半年多的时间，而美国的增长再度企稳向好也要到三季度，但是市场尤其是债券和成长股风格可以建立在预期先行的逻辑上先行企稳甚至反弹。1994年美联储一年内快速加息300bp最终没有使得市场以“崩盘”收场一定程度上也是得益于此（《如果美联储一次加息50bp》）。根据6月FOMC会议给出的加息路径和点阵图信息看，这一拐点可能要到年底11~12月会议才会出现。此前市场预期9月份之后可以逐步降速，但上周末超预期的通胀数据迫使美联储不得不引导更为陡峭的紧缩路径，进而推后了这一时间的到来。后续这一时点是否还会被推后又或者存在一定提前的可能性，高度依赖通胀路径。美国通胀在9月份之后将重新迎来一波新的高基数，如果不出现新的意外（例如地缘局势、油价再度大涨、供应链冲击等等），我们预计年底CPI同比可能逐步将至6%左右，明年初有望回到4%附近，如果这一路径能够兑现，则可以为美联储在年底降速提供可能。反之，任何其他意外的扰动使得通胀路径再度失控，则都将使得当前的局面再度失控，紧缩和衰退压力也将进一步增加。综合上述对于通胀路径、增长衰退以及紧缩转机时点的判断，我们维持在《2H22海外展望：从衰退担忧到软着陆可能？》中认为三季度市场依然可能面临通胀、紧缩、增长这个“不可能三角”下紧绷状态的判断，同时观察四季度和年末是否能够出现转机。如果转机出现，有可能成为美债长端利率筑顶、以及市场风格重新转向成长的契机。主要资产在经历了急剧的波动后，不排除有所反复，但在上述转机出现前可能还不是趋势的逆转。自我们上周五通胀数据超预期后分别上调美债点位和下调美股目标以来，市场的走向基本与我们的预期一致（《更大的紧缩压力，更小的腾挪空间》），基于当前的加息路径，我们维持美债利率3.5%中枢的预测，除非后续加息路径再度改变；美股市场整体震荡偏弱，仍或有一定下行空间（我们测算合理估值14.5倍 vs.当前15.3倍；预计5%的动态盈利贡献），但也当前并非一个流动性危机。美元的偏强和黄金的偏弱亦是如此。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{".IXIC":0.9,".DJI":0.9,".SPX":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":420,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9059664913,"gmtCreate":1654357554632,"gmtModify":1676535435914,"author":{"id":"3576729709142650","authorId":"3576729709142650","name":"Sunc","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/12ea94f8a6bfc2835bf320bed8216f7d","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3576729709142650","idStr":"3576729709142650"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"ok","listText":"ok","text":"ok","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":4,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9059664913","repostId":"1154917667","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":411,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9033682465,"gmtCreate":1646267158121,"gmtModify":1676534110056,"author":{"id":"3576729709142650","authorId":"3576729709142650","name":"Sunc","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/12ea94f8a6bfc2835bf320bed8216f7d","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3576729709142650","idStr":"3576729709142650"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"ok","listText":"ok","text":"ok","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":4,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9033682465","repostId":"1102002059","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1102002059","kind":"news","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"为用户提供金融资讯、行情、数据，旨在帮助投资者理解世界，做投资决策。","home_visible":1,"media_name":"老虎资讯综合","id":"102","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba"},"pubTimestamp":1646264963,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1102002059?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2022-03-03 07:49","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"Last night and this morning | U.S. oil reached a new high in the past ten years! Apple welcomes spring conference","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1102002059","media":"老虎资讯综合","summary":"俄乌即将举行第二轮会谈。随着鲍威尔几乎消除3月货币政策不确定性，美国三大指数集体走高，截至发布会结束标普和道指涨幅均达到2%。官员们表示，由于通胀压力居高不下，他们料将进一步提高借贷成本，但不会减持国债。","content":"<p><html><head></head><body>Summary: ① The three major U.S. stock indexes all rose by more than 1% overnight; ② Energy stocks and large technology stocks rose collectively; ③ European natural gas hit a record high in intraday trading, once soaring by 60%; ④ Key points of Powell's overnight testimony: 25 basis points inclined to rate hike in March. Overseas Market</p><p>1. The three major U.S. stock indexes collectively rose by more than 1%! Energy Tech Stocks Higher</p><p>U.S. stocks closed sharply higher on Wednesday. Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell said he supported a 25 basis point rate hike at the March meeting, dispelling market concerns about the Fed's aggressive rate hike. The Federal Reserve Beige Book reported that U.S. economic activity expanded at a moderate to moderate pace. Russia and Ukraine are about to hold the second round of talks. As of the close, Nathan rose 1.62%, the Dow rose 1.79%, and the S&P rose 1.86%.</p><p>Energy stocks rose collectively,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/SLB\">Schlumberger</a>Rose more than 4%,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/OXY\">Western Petroleum</a>Up more than 3%. Tech stocks are higher,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AAPL\">Apple</a>Rose more than 2%,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MU\">Micron Technology</a>Up more than 8%</p><p>2. Popular gains and losses are mixed<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BEKE\">Shells</a>Fell nearly 11%</p><p>Popular Chinese concept stocks were mixed,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NTES\">NetEase</a>Down 1.19%,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BIDU\">Baidu</a>Down 1.41%,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BABA\">Alibaba</a>Down 1.56%,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/DIDI\">Didi</a>Down 1.96%,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/JD\">JD.com</a>Down 2.06%,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BILI\">Bilibili</a>Down 3.33%,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/PDD\">Pinduoduo</a>It fell 4.34%, Keike fell 10.96%, and Weibo rose 2.01%.</p><p>China Tourism, Macau Gaming and other sectors rose,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/LVS\">Sands Group</a>Up more than 10%,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MPEL\">Melco Resorts Entertainment</a>Rose more than 9%,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TCOM\">Ctrip.com</a>Up more than 8%.</p><p>3. European stocks closed up across the board<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/VUKE.UK\">UK FTSE 100</a>Index rose 1.37%</p><p>European stocks generally rose, Germany's DAX30 index rose 0.73%, France's CAC40 index rose 1.59%, and the UK<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/.100.UK\">FTSE 100 Index</a>It rose 1.37%, and the Euro Stoxx 50 Index rose 1.43%.</p><p>4. U.S. WTI crude oil exceeded $110, hitting the highest closing price since May 2011</p><p>U.S. crude oil futures prices recorded a third straight session of gains on Wednesday and hit their highest close in more than a decade. The progress situation between Russia and Ukraine has not yet seen signs of easing, causing the market to worry that global crude oil supply may be disrupted.</p><p>Finally, WTI for April delivery rose $7.19, or nearly 7%, to settle at $110.60 a barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange on Thursday. This is the highest closing price for a front-month contract since May 2011, according to FactSet agency data.</p><p>5. Gold futures closed down 1.1% and silver fell 1.4%</p><p>The news that Russia and Ukraine are preparing to resume negotiations temporarily reduced the demand for safe havens. According to CME's Fed Watch tool, the market now expects the Fed to almost certainly have a 25 basis point rate hike, with a 3.7% chance of a 50 basis point gain.</p><p>In the end, the price of gold futures for April delivery on the New York Mercantile Exchange fell by $21.50, or 1.1%, to close at $1,922.30 an ounce. May silver futures fell 35 cents, or 1.4%, to settle at $25.19 an ounce.</p><p>6. Going out of winter does not mean that the energy crisis is over: European natural gas hit a record high and once soared by 60%</p><p>On Wednesday (March 2) local time, European natural gas prices broke through record highs during the session, and traders were worried that the escalation of the conflict between Russia and Ukraine might lead to disruptions in natural gas supplies. The Dutch TTF benchmark natural gas futures price once jumped to 194 euros (about 215 US dollars) per megawatt hour, an increase of 60% from Tuesday's closing price and twice last Friday's closing price.</p><p>Alex Froley, a market analyst at ICIS in the UK, said that the natural gas pipeline from Russia to Europe is proceeding normally, but many uncertainties worry traders and investors.</p><p>International macro</p><p>1. Read the key points of Powell's overnight testimony in one article: 25 basis points inclined to rate hike in March</p><p>On March 2, local time, Federal Reserve Chairman Powell attended the House Financial Services Committee to provide testimony for the Federal Reserve's semi-annual monetary policy report and accept questions from members. As Powell almost eliminated the uncertainty of monetary policy in March, the three major U.S. indexes collectively rose. As of the end of the press conference, the S&P and Dow both rose by 2%.</p><p>Powell said that he still supports the 25 basis point rate hike plan in March, and expects to make progress on the issue of shrinking the balance sheet, but will not finalize the matter. At the same time, Powell also emphasized that the current Fed's expectation is that inflation will peak and fall this year. If inflation continues to be higher than this target, the Fed is also ready to rate hike in a more aggressive manner in one or more future meetings.</p><p>2. The White House announces details of the latest sanctions against Russia and Belarus</p><p>On March 2, local time, the White House announced the details of a series of latest economic sanctions against Russia and Belarus, including the implementation of export control policies on Belarus to prevent technological software and technology from flowing into Russia through Belarus. The White House said the move would \"severely limit the ability of Russia and Belarus to obtain the materials needed (for military operations against Ukraine).\"</p><p>3. The United Nations General Assembly adopted a draft resolution on the situation in Ukraine calling for Russia to withdraw its troops from Ukraine</p><p>The emergency special session of the United Nations General Assembly adopted a draft resolution on the situation in Ukraine jointly submitted by more than 90 countries including Ukraine. In addition to requiring Russia to \"immediately, completely and unconditionally\" withdraw its troops from Ukraine, this resolution also adds relevant provisions against Belarus. As the resolution of the United Nations General Assembly is not legally binding on Member States except for some projects involving the operation of the United Nations itself, the implementation of this resolution remains to be seen.</p><p>4. ADP data shows that U.S. companies added more jobs than expected in February</p><p>U.S. ADP employment increased by 475,000 in February, compared with an estimate of an increase of 388,000, and a decrease of 301,000 in the previous value.</p><p>5. Federal Reserve Beige Book: Inflation is fiercer than a tiger, and the economy expanded moderately from January to February</p><p>Federal Reserve State of the Economy Beige Book noted that economic activity has been expanding at a moderate to moderate pace since mid-January. Businesses report that prices are expected to rise in the coming months, with rising costs and hiring difficulties persisting.</p><p>6. The Bank of Canada issued rate hike as scheduled and hinted that it would continue to raise interest rates. shrinking balance sheet has not yet been launched</p><p>Faced with inflation at a 30-year high, the Bank of Canada announced a rate hike of 25 basis points and hinted that it would raise interest rates further.</p><p>Central Bank Governor Tiff Macklem and other officials decided to raise the overnight benchmark interest rate to 0.5%, largely in line with market expectations. Officials said they expected to further raise borrowing costs as inflationary pressures remained high, but would not reduce their holdings of Treasury Bond.</p><p>This is the first Canadian rate hike since 2018, and some expect it to be one of the fastest-paced rate hike cycles since the bank began implementing inflation targeting three years ago. The market is betting that the policy rate will hit a maximum of 1% by June and is expected to reach 1.75% by this time next year.</p><p>7. OPEC + agrees to increase production by 400,000 barrels per day in April</p><p>OPEC + agreed to increase oil production by 400,000 barrels per day in April according to the existing plan, and the next OPEC meeting will be held on March 31.</p><p>8、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/USEG\">US Energy</a>Information Agency: U.S. crude oil imports from Russia fell to zero last week</p><p>The latest data from the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) shows that U.S. EIA crude oil inventories fell by 2.597 million barrels in the week of February 25 and are expected to increase by 2.5 million barrels, compared with an increase of 4.514 million barrels in the previous week. In addition, the U.S. Energy Information Administration said that U.S. crude oil imports from Russia fell to zero last week.</p><p>9. The United States implements technology export controls on the Russian oil refining industry</p><p>The White House said that the United States will impose export controls on Russia's oil refining industry, which is an important source of revenue to support the Russian military. By imposing export controls on oil and gas extraction equipment, the U.S. Department of Commerce will impose restrictions on the export of technology that will support Russia's refining capacity in the long run.</p><p>Company News</p><p>1、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/NW/2216170339\" target=\"_blank\">Apple will hold a new product launch conference on March 9. Is the new iPhone SE coming?</a></p><p>In the early morning of March 3, Beijing time, Apple issued an invitation letter, officially announcing that it will<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/601099\">Pacific Ocean</a>A new product launch conference was held at 10 a.m. on March 8th and 2 a.m. on March 9th, Beijing time. The theme of this launch conference was Peek performance, and the Chinese theme was high-energy delivery.</p><p>2、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/NW/2216796531\" target=\"_blank\">Tesla increases investment in Australian lithium mines, supplying 110,000 tons of spodumene concentrate in the next four years</a></p><p>Australian lithium miner Core Lithium announced on Wednesday that it has reached a supply agreement with Tesla to supply Tesla with up to 110,000 tons of spodumene concentrate within four years.</p><p>Core Lithium said the supply program to Tesla is expected to begin in the second half of 2023. Currently, automakers around the world are racing to secure the supply of parts used to make electric vehicles.</p><p>3、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/NW/2216750411\" target=\"_blank\">Ford will operate electric vehicle and internal combustion engine businesses separately to maximize profits from electric vehicle business</a></p><p>According to Reuters, three people familiar with the matter,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/F\">Ford Motor</a>A restructuring plan will be announced on Wednesday, under which its electric vehicle and internal combustion engine businesses will be operated separately, a move aimed at maximizing profits in the electric vehicle business and growing at a faster pace. Ford will appoint executives to lead each business, which will have separate names, and Ford will also outline updated margin targets for the company as a whole. Ford's idea is to eventually report the results of its electric vehicle and diesel locomotive businesses separately, one source said.</p><p>4、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/NW/2216812209\" target=\"_blank\">Netflix announces € 65 m acquisition of Finnish game developer Next Games</a></p><p>According to news on March 2, Netflix announced that it has reached a merger agreement to acquire Finnish game developer Next Games. The transaction is expected to be completed in the second quarter of 2022. Under the agreement, Netflix is close to launching a takeover offer to acquire all of Next Games' issued and outstanding shares.</p><p>Under the offer, Next Games shareholders will receive € 2. 10 per share of Next Games in cash for a total value of approximately € 65 million. The board of directors of Next Games unanimously decided to recommend that shareholders accept the tender offer.</p><p>5、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/NW/2216105870\" target=\"_blank\">Snowflake's revenue growth slows, falls more than 22% after hours</a></p><p>Snowflake's total revenue in the fourth quarter was US $383.8 million, a year-on-year increase of 101%; The net loss was US $132.2 million, narrowing from the net loss of US $198.9 million in the same period last year, and Snowflake plunged 22% after hours.</p><p></body></html></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Last night and this morning | U.S. oil reached a new high in the past ten years! Apple welcomes spring conference</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nLast night and this morning | U.S. oil reached a new high in the past ten years! Apple welcomes spring conference\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/102\">\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">老虎资讯综合 </p>\n<p class=\"h-time smaller\">2022-03-03 07:49</p>\n</div>\n</a>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><html><head></head><body>Summary: ① The three major U.S. stock indexes all rose by more than 1% overnight; ② Energy stocks and large technology stocks rose collectively; ③ European natural gas hit a record high in intraday trading, once soaring by 60%; ④ Key points of Powell's overnight testimony: 25 basis points inclined to rate hike in March. Overseas Market</p><p>1. The three major U.S. stock indexes collectively rose by more than 1%! Energy Tech Stocks Higher</p><p>U.S. stocks closed sharply higher on Wednesday. Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell said he supported a 25 basis point rate hike at the March meeting, dispelling market concerns about the Fed's aggressive rate hike. The Federal Reserve Beige Book reported that U.S. economic activity expanded at a moderate to moderate pace. Russia and Ukraine are about to hold the second round of talks. As of the close, Nathan rose 1.62%, the Dow rose 1.79%, and the S&P rose 1.86%.</p><p>Energy stocks rose collectively,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/SLB\">Schlumberger</a>Rose more than 4%,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/OXY\">Western Petroleum</a>Up more than 3%. Tech stocks are higher,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AAPL\">Apple</a>Rose more than 2%,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MU\">Micron Technology</a>Up more than 8%</p><p>2. Popular gains and losses are mixed<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BEKE\">Shells</a>Fell nearly 11%</p><p>Popular Chinese concept stocks were mixed,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NTES\">NetEase</a>Down 1.19%,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BIDU\">Baidu</a>Down 1.41%,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BABA\">Alibaba</a>Down 1.56%,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/DIDI\">Didi</a>Down 1.96%,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/JD\">JD.com</a>Down 2.06%,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BILI\">Bilibili</a>Down 3.33%,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/PDD\">Pinduoduo</a>It fell 4.34%, Keike fell 10.96%, and Weibo rose 2.01%.</p><p>China Tourism, Macau Gaming and other sectors rose,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/LVS\">Sands Group</a>Up more than 10%,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MPEL\">Melco Resorts Entertainment</a>Rose more than 9%,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TCOM\">Ctrip.com</a>Up more than 8%.</p><p>3. European stocks closed up across the board<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/VUKE.UK\">UK FTSE 100</a>Index rose 1.37%</p><p>European stocks generally rose, Germany's DAX30 index rose 0.73%, France's CAC40 index rose 1.59%, and the UK<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/.100.UK\">FTSE 100 Index</a>It rose 1.37%, and the Euro Stoxx 50 Index rose 1.43%.</p><p>4. U.S. WTI crude oil exceeded $110, hitting the highest closing price since May 2011</p><p>U.S. crude oil futures prices recorded a third straight session of gains on Wednesday and hit their highest close in more than a decade. The progress situation between Russia and Ukraine has not yet seen signs of easing, causing the market to worry that global crude oil supply may be disrupted.</p><p>Finally, WTI for April delivery rose $7.19, or nearly 7%, to settle at $110.60 a barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange on Thursday. This is the highest closing price for a front-month contract since May 2011, according to FactSet agency data.</p><p>5. Gold futures closed down 1.1% and silver fell 1.4%</p><p>The news that Russia and Ukraine are preparing to resume negotiations temporarily reduced the demand for safe havens. According to CME's Fed Watch tool, the market now expects the Fed to almost certainly have a 25 basis point rate hike, with a 3.7% chance of a 50 basis point gain.</p><p>In the end, the price of gold futures for April delivery on the New York Mercantile Exchange fell by $21.50, or 1.1%, to close at $1,922.30 an ounce. May silver futures fell 35 cents, or 1.4%, to settle at $25.19 an ounce.</p><p>6. Going out of winter does not mean that the energy crisis is over: European natural gas hit a record high and once soared by 60%</p><p>On Wednesday (March 2) local time, European natural gas prices broke through record highs during the session, and traders were worried that the escalation of the conflict between Russia and Ukraine might lead to disruptions in natural gas supplies. The Dutch TTF benchmark natural gas futures price once jumped to 194 euros (about 215 US dollars) per megawatt hour, an increase of 60% from Tuesday's closing price and twice last Friday's closing price.</p><p>Alex Froley, a market analyst at ICIS in the UK, said that the natural gas pipeline from Russia to Europe is proceeding normally, but many uncertainties worry traders and investors.</p><p>International macro</p><p>1. Read the key points of Powell's overnight testimony in one article: 25 basis points inclined to rate hike in March</p><p>On March 2, local time, Federal Reserve Chairman Powell attended the House Financial Services Committee to provide testimony for the Federal Reserve's semi-annual monetary policy report and accept questions from members. As Powell almost eliminated the uncertainty of monetary policy in March, the three major U.S. indexes collectively rose. As of the end of the press conference, the S&P and Dow both rose by 2%.</p><p>Powell said that he still supports the 25 basis point rate hike plan in March, and expects to make progress on the issue of shrinking the balance sheet, but will not finalize the matter. At the same time, Powell also emphasized that the current Fed's expectation is that inflation will peak and fall this year. If inflation continues to be higher than this target, the Fed is also ready to rate hike in a more aggressive manner in one or more future meetings.</p><p>2. The White House announces details of the latest sanctions against Russia and Belarus</p><p>On March 2, local time, the White House announced the details of a series of latest economic sanctions against Russia and Belarus, including the implementation of export control policies on Belarus to prevent technological software and technology from flowing into Russia through Belarus. The White House said the move would \"severely limit the ability of Russia and Belarus to obtain the materials needed (for military operations against Ukraine).\"</p><p>3. The United Nations General Assembly adopted a draft resolution on the situation in Ukraine calling for Russia to withdraw its troops from Ukraine</p><p>The emergency special session of the United Nations General Assembly adopted a draft resolution on the situation in Ukraine jointly submitted by more than 90 countries including Ukraine. In addition to requiring Russia to \"immediately, completely and unconditionally\" withdraw its troops from Ukraine, this resolution also adds relevant provisions against Belarus. As the resolution of the United Nations General Assembly is not legally binding on Member States except for some projects involving the operation of the United Nations itself, the implementation of this resolution remains to be seen.</p><p>4. ADP data shows that U.S. companies added more jobs than expected in February</p><p>U.S. ADP employment increased by 475,000 in February, compared with an estimate of an increase of 388,000, and a decrease of 301,000 in the previous value.</p><p>5. Federal Reserve Beige Book: Inflation is fiercer than a tiger, and the economy expanded moderately from January to February</p><p>Federal Reserve State of the Economy Beige Book noted that economic activity has been expanding at a moderate to moderate pace since mid-January. Businesses report that prices are expected to rise in the coming months, with rising costs and hiring difficulties persisting.</p><p>6. The Bank of Canada issued rate hike as scheduled and hinted that it would continue to raise interest rates. shrinking balance sheet has not yet been launched</p><p>Faced with inflation at a 30-year high, the Bank of Canada announced a rate hike of 25 basis points and hinted that it would raise interest rates further.</p><p>Central Bank Governor Tiff Macklem and other officials decided to raise the overnight benchmark interest rate to 0.5%, largely in line with market expectations. Officials said they expected to further raise borrowing costs as inflationary pressures remained high, but would not reduce their holdings of Treasury Bond.</p><p>This is the first Canadian rate hike since 2018, and some expect it to be one of the fastest-paced rate hike cycles since the bank began implementing inflation targeting three years ago. The market is betting that the policy rate will hit a maximum of 1% by June and is expected to reach 1.75% by this time next year.</p><p>7. OPEC + agrees to increase production by 400,000 barrels per day in April</p><p>OPEC + agreed to increase oil production by 400,000 barrels per day in April according to the existing plan, and the next OPEC meeting will be held on March 31.</p><p>8、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/USEG\">US Energy</a>Information Agency: U.S. crude oil imports from Russia fell to zero last week</p><p>The latest data from the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) shows that U.S. EIA crude oil inventories fell by 2.597 million barrels in the week of February 25 and are expected to increase by 2.5 million barrels, compared with an increase of 4.514 million barrels in the previous week. In addition, the U.S. Energy Information Administration said that U.S. crude oil imports from Russia fell to zero last week.</p><p>9. The United States implements technology export controls on the Russian oil refining industry</p><p>The White House said that the United States will impose export controls on Russia's oil refining industry, which is an important source of revenue to support the Russian military. By imposing export controls on oil and gas extraction equipment, the U.S. Department of Commerce will impose restrictions on the export of technology that will support Russia's refining capacity in the long run.</p><p>Company News</p><p>1、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/NW/2216170339\" target=\"_blank\">Apple will hold a new product launch conference on March 9. Is the new iPhone SE coming?</a></p><p>In the early morning of March 3, Beijing time, Apple issued an invitation letter, officially announcing that it will<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/601099\">Pacific Ocean</a>A new product launch conference was held at 10 a.m. on March 8th and 2 a.m. on March 9th, Beijing time. The theme of this launch conference was Peek performance, and the Chinese theme was high-energy delivery.</p><p>2、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/NW/2216796531\" target=\"_blank\">Tesla increases investment in Australian lithium mines, supplying 110,000 tons of spodumene concentrate in the next four years</a></p><p>Australian lithium miner Core Lithium announced on Wednesday that it has reached a supply agreement with Tesla to supply Tesla with up to 110,000 tons of spodumene concentrate within four years.</p><p>Core Lithium said the supply program to Tesla is expected to begin in the second half of 2023. Currently, automakers around the world are racing to secure the supply of parts used to make electric vehicles.</p><p>3、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/NW/2216750411\" target=\"_blank\">Ford will operate electric vehicle and internal combustion engine businesses separately to maximize profits from electric vehicle business</a></p><p>According to Reuters, three people familiar with the matter,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/F\">Ford Motor</a>A restructuring plan will be announced on Wednesday, under which its electric vehicle and internal combustion engine businesses will be operated separately, a move aimed at maximizing profits in the electric vehicle business and growing at a faster pace. Ford will appoint executives to lead each business, which will have separate names, and Ford will also outline updated margin targets for the company as a whole. Ford's idea is to eventually report the results of its electric vehicle and diesel locomotive businesses separately, one source said.</p><p>4、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/NW/2216812209\" target=\"_blank\">Netflix announces € 65 m acquisition of Finnish game developer Next Games</a></p><p>According to news on March 2, Netflix announced that it has reached a merger agreement to acquire Finnish game developer Next Games. The transaction is expected to be completed in the second quarter of 2022. Under the agreement, Netflix is close to launching a takeover offer to acquire all of Next Games' issued and outstanding shares.</p><p>Under the offer, Next Games shareholders will receive € 2. 10 per share of Next Games in cash for a total value of approximately € 65 million. The board of directors of Next Games unanimously decided to recommend that shareholders accept the tender offer.</p><p>5、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/NW/2216105870\" target=\"_blank\">Snowflake's revenue growth slows, falls more than 22% after hours</a></p><p>Snowflake's total revenue in the fourth quarter was US $383.8 million, a year-on-year increase of 101%; The net loss was US $132.2 million, narrowing from the net loss of US $198.9 million in the same period last year, and Snowflake plunged 22% after hours.</p><p></body></html></p>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b23574aac95526c9e5c62ebc8dd25130","relate_stocks":{"USO":"美国原油ETF","DUG":"二倍做空石油与天然气ETF(ProShares)",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index","SCO":"二倍做空彭博原油指数ETF","BK4554":"元宇宙及AR概念","UCO":"二倍做多彭博原油ETF","BK4501":"段永平概念","BK4553":"喜马拉雅资本持仓",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite","DDG":"ProShares做空石油与天然气ETF","BK4534":"瑞士信贷持仓","BK4533":"AQR资本管理(全球第二大对冲基金)","AAPL":"苹果","BK4566":"资本集团",".DJI":"道琼斯","BK4505":"高瓴资本持仓","BK4515":"5G概念","BK4559":"巴菲特持仓","BK4550":"红杉资本持仓"},"source_url":"","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1102002059","content_text":"摘要：①隔夜美股三大指数均涨超1%；②能源股、大型科技股集体上涨；③欧洲天然气盘中创历史新高，一度飙升60%；④鲍威尔隔夜证词要点：倾向三月加息25基点。海外市场1、美三大股指集体涨超1%！能源科技股走高美股周三大幅收高。美联储主席鲍威尔称支持在3月会议上加息25个基点，打消了市场对美联储激进加息的担忧。联储褐皮书报告称美国经济活动以适度至温和的步伐扩张。俄乌即将举行第二轮会谈。截至收盘，纳涨1.62%，道指涨1.79%，标普涨1.86%。能源股集体上涨，斯伦贝谢涨超4%，西方石油涨超3%。科技股走高，苹果涨超2%，美光科技涨超8%2、热门中概涨跌互现 贝壳跌近11%热门中概股涨跌不一，网易跌1.19%，百度跌1.41%，阿里巴巴跌1.56%，滴滴跌1.96%，京东跌2.06%，哔哩哔哩跌3.33%，拼多多跌4.34%，贝壳跌10.96%，微博涨2.01%。中概旅游、澳门博彩等板块上扬，金沙集团涨超10%，新濠博亚娱乐涨超9%，携程网涨超8%。3、欧股全线收涨 英国富时100指数涨1.37%欧股普涨，德国DAX30指数涨0.73%，法国CAC40指数涨1.59%，英国富时100指数涨1.37%，欧洲斯托克50指数涨1.43%。4、美国WTI原油突破110美元 创2011年5月以来最高收盘价美国原油期货价格周三录得连续第三个交易日上涨，并创10多年来的最高收盘价。俄乌进展局势尚未看到缓解迹象，令市场担心全球原油供应可能受到干扰。最终，周四纽约商品交易所4月交割的WTI上涨7.19美元，涨幅近7%，收于每桶110.60美元。根据FactSet机构数据，这是自2011年5月以来近月合约的最高收盘价。5、黄金期货收跌1.1% 白银下跌1.4%俄乌准备恢复谈判的消息暂时降低了避险需求。根据CME的美联储观察工具，目前市场预计美联储几乎肯定加息25个基点，上涨50个基点的可能性为3.7%。最终，纽约商品交易所4月交割的黄金期货价格下跌21.50美元，跌幅为1.1%，收于每盎司1922.30美元。5月白银期货价格下跌35美分，跌幅为1.4%，收于每盎司25.19美元。6、走出冬天不代表能源危机解除：欧洲天然气盘中创历史新高 一度飙升60%当地时间周三（3月2日），欧洲天然气价格盘中突破纪录高位，交易商担心俄乌冲突升级可能导致天然气供应中断。荷兰TTF基准天然气期货价格一度跳涨至每兆瓦时194欧元（约合215美元），较周二收盘价的涨幅达到60%，两倍于上周五的收盘价。英国ICIS的市场分析师Alex Froley表示，从俄罗斯流向欧洲的天然气管道正在正常进行，但很多不确定因素让交易商和投资者担忧。国际宏观1、一文读懂鲍威尔隔夜证词要点：倾向三月加息25基点当地时间3月2日，美联储主席鲍威尔出席国会众议院金融服务委员会，为美联储半年度货币政策报告提供证词并接受议员质询。随着鲍威尔几乎消除3月货币政策不确定性，美国三大指数集体走高，截至发布会结束标普和道指涨幅均达到2%。鲍威尔表示，目前仍支持3月加息25个基点的计划，同时预期能够在缩减资产负债表的问题上取得进展，但不会最终敲定这一事项。同时鲍威尔也强调，目前美联储的预期是今年通胀将会见顶并回落，如果通胀持续高于这一目标，美联储也准备好在未来一次或多次会议中以更激进的方式加息。2、白宫公布针对俄罗斯和白俄罗斯的最新制裁措施细节美国白宫当地时间3月2日公布了一系列针对俄罗斯和白俄罗斯最新经济制裁措施的细节，包括对白俄罗斯实施出口管制政策，以防止科技软件和技术通过白俄罗斯流入俄罗斯。白宫称，此举将“严重限制俄罗斯和白俄罗斯获得（对乌军事行动）所需材料的能力”。3、联合国大会通过乌克兰局势决议草案 要求俄罗斯从乌克兰撤军联合国大会紧急特别会议通过了由乌克兰等超过90国共同提交的乌克兰局势决议草案。此决议除要求俄罗斯“立即、彻底、无条件”从乌克兰撤军外，还加入了针对白俄罗斯的相关条文。由于联合国大会决议除部分涉联合国自身运行项目外，对会员国没有法律约束力，因此该决议执行情况有待观察。4、ADP数据显示美国企业2月份新增就业人数超过预期美国2月ADP就业人数增加47.5万人，预估为增加38.8万人，前值为减少30.1万人。5、美联储褐皮书：通胀猛于虎，1月到2月经济温和扩张美联储经济状况褐皮书指出，自1月中旬以来，经济活动一直在以适度至温和的速度扩张。企业报告称，预计未来几个月物价还会上涨，成本上升和招聘困难持续存在。6、加拿大央行如期加息并暗示会继续提高利率 暂未启动缩表面对处于30年高位的通胀率，加拿大央行宣布加息25基点，并暗示还会进一步提高利率。央行行长Tiff Macklem等官员决定将隔夜基准利率上调至0.5％，基本符合市场预期。官员们表示，由于通胀压力居高不下，他们料将进一步提高借贷成本，但不会减持国债。这是加拿大自2018年以来首次加息，一些人预计这将是该行三年前开始实施通胀目标制以来节奏最快的加息周期之一。市场押注政策利率到6月最高将触及1％，明年此时料达到1.75％。7、欧佩克+同意4月增产40万桶/日欧佩克+同意按照现有计划将4月份石油产量提高40万桶/日，下一次欧佩克会议将在3月31日举行。8、美国能源信息署：上周美国从俄罗斯进口的原油数量降至零美国能源信息署（EIA）最新数据显示，美国2月25日当周EIA原油库存下降259.7万桶，预期会增加250万桶，之前一周增加451.4万桶。此外，美国能源信息署称，上周美国从俄罗斯进口的原油数量降至零。9、美国针对俄罗斯炼油行业实施技术出口管制白宫表示，美国将针对俄罗斯炼油行业实施出口管制，这是支持俄罗斯军方的一个重要收入来源。通过对石油和天然气开采设备实施出口管制，美国商务部将对长期而言支持俄罗斯炼油能力的技术出口施加限制。公司新闻1、苹果将于3月9日召开新品发布会，新款iPhone SE要来了？北京时间3月3日凌晨，苹果公司发布邀请函，官宣将于太平洋时间3月8日上午10点，北京时间3月9日凌晨2点召开新品发布会，此次发布会的主题是「Peek performance」，中文主题「高能传递」。2、特斯拉加码澳洲锂矿，未来四年供应11万吨锂辉石精矿澳锂矿商Core Lithium周三宣布与特斯拉达成供应协议，将在4年内向特斯拉供应高达11万吨的锂辉石精矿。Core Lithium表示，向特斯拉的供应计划预计将于2023年下半年开始。目前，全球汽车制造商都在竞相确保用于制造电动汽车的零部件的供应。3、福特将分开运营电动车和内燃机业务，使电动车业务利润最大化据路透，三位知情人士称，福特汽车周三将宣布一项重组计划，根据该计划，其电动车和内燃机业务将分开运营，此举旨在让电动车业务实现利润最大化，并以更快的速度发展。福特将任命高管来领导每项业务，这些业务将有独立的名称，福特还将概述公司整体的最新利润率目标。一位消息人士称，福特的想法是最终分别报告电动车和内燃机车业务的业绩。4、Netflix宣布6500万欧元收购芬兰游戏开发商Next Games3月2日消息，Netflix宣布已达成收购芬兰游戏开发商 Next Games 的合并协议，该交易预计将于 2022 年第二季度完成。根据协议，Netflix 即将启动收购要约，以收购 Next Games 的所有已发行和流通股。根据要约，Next Games股东将获得每股 Next Games 2.10 欧元的现金，总价值约为 6500 万欧元。Next Games董事会一致决定建议股东接受要约收购。5、Snowflake营收增长放缓，盘后跌逾22%Snowflake第四季度总营收为3.838亿美元，同比增长101%；净亏损为1.322亿美元，与去年同期的净亏损1.989亿美元相比有所收窄，Snowflake盘后暴跌 22%。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{".IXIC":0.9,"UCO":0.9,"AAPL":0.9,"USO":0.9,"QMmain":0.9,"CLmain":0.9,".SPX":0.9,"UWTIF":0.9,"DUG":0.9,".DJI":0.9,"DDG":0.9,"SCO":0.9,"BZmain":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":822,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9030392601,"gmtCreate":1645627703245,"gmtModify":1676534046676,"author":{"id":"3576729709142650","authorId":"3576729709142650","name":"Sunc","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/12ea94f8a6bfc2835bf320bed8216f7d","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3576729709142650","idStr":"3576729709142650"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"ok","listText":"ok","text":"ok","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":6,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9030392601","repostId":"2213496312","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"2213496312","kind":"highlight","pubTimestamp":1645586061,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/2213496312?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2022-02-23 11:14","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"It's about the global economy! 4 Implications of the Escalation of Russia-Ukraine Conflict","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2213496312","media":"熊园观察","summary":"摘要：俄乌冲突加剧了全球经济前景的不确定性，也加大了美股下跌压力，从而会制约美联储加息步伐。事件：当地时间2月21日，俄罗斯总统普京签署承认乌东两地顿涅茨克和卢甘斯克的人民共和国总统令，并签署俄罗斯与","content":"<p><html><head></head><body>Abstract: The conflict between Russia and Ukraine has exacerbated the uncertainty of the global economic outlook and increased the downward pressure on U.S. stocks, which will restrict the pace of the Federal Reserve's rate hike. Event: On February 21, local time, Russian President Vladimir Putin signed a presidential decree recognizing the People's Republic of Donetsk and Luhansk in eastern Ukraine, and signed a treaty of friendship, cooperation and mutual assistance between Russia and the two countries. Global stock markets plummeted, and crude oil and gold rose sharply.</p><p>Core conclusions:</p><p>1. The conflict between Russia and Ukraine continues to escalate, and the possibility of evolving into war has greatly increased.</p><p>2. Taking history as a mirror, the performance rules of major assets after geopolitical conflicts: short-term negative risky assets, good for safe-haven assets and energy products, and the impact is often concentrated in 10-30 days after the outbreak of conflicts, which has a weak impact on the medium and long-term trend of asset prices.</p><p>3. If the conflict between Russia and Ukraine continues to escalate, there will be four possible impacts:</p><p>For the global economy: Russia is likely to face a new round of sanctions; Given that Russia is the world's major exporter of energy and raw materials, it is necessary to be alert to the derivative risks of rising commodity prices caused by sanctions against Russia. For asset prices: Referring to the aforementioned experience, if only this conflict is considered, there will still be downward pressure on global stock markets in the next month, Treasury Bond yields will trend downward, and crude oil and gold are expected to rise further. However, after one month, the trend of asset prices will return to fundamental dominance; The prices of steel, corn, wheat, barley, fertilizer and other commodities may rise further in the short term due to supply disruptions. For global inflation: pushing up oil prices to a high level in the short term and increasing global inflationary pressure, among which: 1) U.S. inflation is still high in the short term, and the inflection point of the decline will also be delayed; 2) For China, according to calculations, if oil prices rise by 10%, it will drive CPI and PPI up by 0.09% and 0.4% respectively. It is expected that the CPI will remain low at first and then high throughout the year, and it will be difficult to change the downward trend of PPI even if oil prices rise; 3) Given that the impact of rising oil prices on PPI is significantly greater than CPI, this will disturb the convergence rhythm of my country's PPI-CPI scissors difference, and will also disturb the upstream and downstream transmission rhythm of corporate profits. On the pace of the Fed's rate hike: The conflict between Russia and Ukraine will aggravate the uncertainty of the global economic outlook, and will also increase the downward pressure on U.S. stocks, which will restrict the pace of the Fed's rate hike. In fact, since mid-February, expectations for the Fed's rate hike have begun to cool down. Maintain the previous judgment: in 2022, the Federal Reserve will be hawkish first and then dove, and it is expected that there will be 3-4 rate hike throughout the year. The body is as follows:</p><p>1. The conflict between Russia and Ukraine continues to escalate, and the possibility of evolving into war has greatly increased. The Russia-Ukraine issue has a long history, and the core differences lie in \"NATO's eastward expansion\" and \"Ukraine's accession to NATO.\" In mid-January 2022, Russia held talks with the United States, NATO, and OSCE on the situation in Ukraine, but did not achieve significant results. After a month-long game, the conflict between the two sides escalated again: on the 21st, Russian President Vladimir Putin signed a presidential decree recognizing Donetsk People's Republic and Luhansk People's Republic, and signed a treaty of friendship, cooperation and mutual assistance between Russia and the two. At the same time, he ordered \"peacekeeping forces\" to enter the area, which greatly increased the possibility of the conflict between the two sides turning into war. In response, the U.S. announced financial sanctions against Russia and warned it was ready to impose more if necessary.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6af52f7a91e964f09f82387d80558d85\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"707\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a906fdd0c25182405d6b9ff629db6791\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"607\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/>2. Taking history as a mirror, the impact of geopolitical conflicts on assets: short-term negative risk assets, good hedging and resource products, weak medium and long-term impact</p><p>In order to better compare, we selected \"five large-scale geopolitical conflicts involving major powers\" since 2000 as the analysis objects, including the 2001 Afghanistan War, the 2003 Iraq War, the 2011 Libya War & Syria War, and the 2014 Crimea referendum. During the conflict, the performance of various asset prices is as follows:</p><p>Stock market: U.S. stocks generally fell in the short term, and the decline range was basically 10-30 days, and then started to rise again; A-shares mostly show a rise in the short term, and there is no consistent pattern in the medium and long term. The divergence between A-shares and US stocks is due to the fact that these rounds of geopolitical conflicts have not involved China, and on the other hand, the correlation between A-shares and US stocks before 2015 was low;<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e270fdee3a166416e98f5c2fdf52ea3d\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"400\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Bond market: 10Y U.S. bond yields generally fell in the short term, and the downward range was also 10-30 days, and then continued to decline after a short rebound; The yield of 10Y ChinaBond also mostly declined in the short term, and the medium and long-term trend was volatile;</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7697addec2acb2db96ccf9e263363fbf\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"407\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Exchange rate: the US Dollar Index has fallen continuously for three times, risen continuously for one time, and volatile once;</p><p>Gold: Spot gold continued to fall twice, continued to rise twice, and fell first and then rose once;</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f0550757b3c7c99d521b0a87637d529a\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"411\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Crude oil: Crude oil prices generally rise in the short term, and the rising range is also 10-30 days. There is no consistent pattern in the medium and long-term trend;</p><p>Copper: Copper prices mostly fall in the short term, and the decline range is also 10-30 days. There is no consistent pattern in the medium and long-term trend.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/58e7067c2e912053babb0dedecb700c7\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"394\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/>Summary of the law: To sum up, it can be seen that geopolitical conflicts will be negative for risky assets and good for safe-haven assets and energy products in the short term. The impact is often concentrated in 10-30 days after the outbreak of the conflict, and the impact on the medium and long-term trend of asset prices is weak.</p><p>3. Four-point deduction of the impact of the Russia-Ukraine conflict: global economy, asset prices, global inflation, and the rhythm of the Fed's rate hike</p><p>1) Impact on the global economy: If the conflict continues to escalate, Russia will most likely face a new round of sanctions, which will also drag down the global economy. As of 2020, Russia's GDP and total import and export merchandise volume were US $1.5 trillion and US $569.3 billion respectively, accounting for 1.7% and 1.6% of the world's total respectively. It is expected that the direct impact on the global economy and trade will be limited. However, considering that Russia is the world's major exporter of energy and raw materials, it is necessary to be alert to the risks derived from rising commodity prices caused by sanctions against Russia. For example, Russia's natural gas exports in 2020 were approximately 199.9 billion cubic meters, accounting for approximately 16.2% of global natural gas exports, of which approximately 80% were exported to Europe, accounting for more than 40% of European natural gas imports. If the situation between Russia and Ukraine continues to be tense, the United States and Europe The launch of a new round of sanctions against Russia will further aggravate the natural gas shortage pattern in Europe, thus dragging down the European economy.</p><p>2) Impact on asset prices: Combined with the aforementioned analysis, if the fire in the eastern Wudong region on February 17 is used as the starting point for the outbreak of the conflict, there will still be downward pressure on global stock markets in the next month, and Treasury Bond yields will still trend downward., crude oil and gold are expected to rise further; But after a month, asset price trends will return to fundamentals. In addition, Russia and Ukraine are also important exporters of steel, corn, wheat, barley, fertilizer and other commodities in the world (see Figure 11 for specific commodities and shares). If the conflict between the two sides continues to intensify, the prices of these commodities may rise further due to supply disruptions in the short term.<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5b5c88fd3fca5f8262509fb196612c61\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"671\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a82a027493d3e9b071117b063493e8d8\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"379\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/>3) Impact on inflation: pushing up oil prices to a high level in the short term and increasing global inflationary pressure, but it is difficult to change the downward trend of my country's PPI</p><p>U.S. inflation: It is still high in the short term, and the inflection point of the decline will also be delayed. We have pointed out many times in previous reports that inflation in developed countries such as the United States is greatly affected by energy prices. According to rough estimates, if the average oil price in the next 1-3 months is assumed to be US $105/barrel, the CPI in the United States from February to March will further rise to about 8% year-on-year; If oil prices cannot fall quickly, the inflection point of U.S. inflation may be delayed until around May.<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0bf730b4ac6bfc18f1c5eb4f702a4166\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"792\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/>China's inflation: According to calculations, if oil prices rise by 10%, it will drive CPI and PPI up by 0.09% and 0.4% respectively; Throughout the year, CPI is expected to remain low at first and then high, and the upward trend of oil prices is expected to be difficult to change the downward trend of PPI.</p><p>1) CPI: Oil prices mainly affect the two sub-items of CPI: residential water, electricity and fuel, and transportation fuel. If oil prices rise by 10% year-on-year, it will drive the above two sub-items to rise by 0.8 and 2.3 percentage points respectively. Combined with the weight of the above sub-items in CPI, it can be converted that if oil prices rise by 10% year-on-year, it may drive the CPI up by 0.09 percentage points year-on-year. In the short term, the average oil price in the first 21 days of February rose to US $92.7/barrel, a year-on-year increase of 48.8%, which is expected to boost the CPI by about 0.5 percentage points year-on-year. Considering the price changes of base, food, and non-food items, it is expected that the CPI in February may rebound slightly year-on-year. Looking at the whole year, the CPI is expected to remain low before and then high. Under the benchmark scenario, the center of the whole year may be higher than 2.0%.</p><p>2) PPI: Oil prices mainly affect PPI oil and gas exploitation, fuel processing, chemical manufacturing, chemical fiber manufacturing and other sub-items. 7.3, 4.1, 2.0 and 2.2 percentage points. Considering that the above sub-items account for 0.7%, 4.3%, 6.5% and 0.8% of PPI respectively, it can be converted that if oil prices rise by 10% year-on-year, it may drive PPI up by 0.4 percentage points year-on-year. In the short term, oil prices in February are expected to drive PPI up by about 1.9 percentage points; Considering the base and other industrial product price changes, the PPI in February may still fall slightly year-on-year. Throughout the year, as the PPI base rebounds month by month, the rise in oil prices is likely to be difficult to change the downward trend of PPI.<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3ed90879ecee1fc82d23a7e0d11ddee4\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"452\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/911d90c91485c6f8978e6b5b054adbd3\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"442\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/>Disturbing the convergence rhythm of PPI-CPI scissors difference & the upstream and downstream transmission rhythm of corporate profits. Based on the previous calculation, the impact of rising oil prices on PPI is significantly greater than that of CPI; Therefore, the rise in oil prices may disturb the convergence rhythm of PPI-CPI scissors difference and the upstream and downstream transmission rhythm of profits. Specifically, upstream profits may remain at a relatively high level in the short term, and the uncertainty of improving midstream and downstream profits will increase. From an industrial perspective, the profits of oil and gas exploration, fuel processing, chemical industry, chemical fiber and other industries are positively correlated with oil prices, while the profits of the rubber and plastics industry are negatively correlated with oil prices. If oil prices continue to remain at a high level, there may be support for profits in industries such as oil and gas exploration, and the suppression of the rubber and plastics industry may continue to exist. (For details, please refer to the previous report \"Profit will be transmitted upstream and downstream in 2022-Calculation based on PPI-CPI scissors difference\")<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/70c1dc18b4888a8b1fd254b88563c399\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"458\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/>4) Impact on the pace of the Fed's rate hike: On the one hand, as analyzed earlier, this conflict may raise U.S. inflation and delay the inflection point of inflation, but the current Fed's rate hike expectations have fully reflected high inflation; On the other hand, the conflict between Russia and Ukraine has intensified the uncertainty of the global economic outlook and increased the downward pressure on U.S. stocks, which will restrict the pace of the Federal Reserve's rate hike. Taken together, interest rate futures data shows that since mid-February, the market expects the number of rate hike in March to drop from 1.7 to 1.2, and the number of rate hike in the whole year to drop from 6.6 to 5.9, reflecting that rate hike expectations have begun to cool down. Maintain our previous judgment: in 2022, the Federal Reserve will be hawkish first and then dove, and it is expected that there will be 3-4 rate hike throughout the year.<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7b9bbc1d19f9386cdf6bd129a69fefaf\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"807\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/>Risk warning: The conflict between Russia and Ukraine has evolved beyond expectations.</p><p></body></html></p>","source":"lsy1589878828889","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>It's about the global economy! 4 Implications of the Escalation of Russia-Ukraine Conflict</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nIt's about the global economy! 4 Implications of the Escalation of Russia-Ukraine Conflict\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">熊园观察</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2022-02-23 11:14</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><html><head></head><body>Abstract: The conflict between Russia and Ukraine has exacerbated the uncertainty of the global economic outlook and increased the downward pressure on U.S. stocks, which will restrict the pace of the Federal Reserve's rate hike. Event: On February 21, local time, Russian President Vladimir Putin signed a presidential decree recognizing the People's Republic of Donetsk and Luhansk in eastern Ukraine, and signed a treaty of friendship, cooperation and mutual assistance between Russia and the two countries. Global stock markets plummeted, and crude oil and gold rose sharply.</p><p>Core conclusions:</p><p>1. The conflict between Russia and Ukraine continues to escalate, and the possibility of evolving into war has greatly increased.</p><p>2. Taking history as a mirror, the performance rules of major assets after geopolitical conflicts: short-term negative risky assets, good for safe-haven assets and energy products, and the impact is often concentrated in 10-30 days after the outbreak of conflicts, which has a weak impact on the medium and long-term trend of asset prices.</p><p>3. If the conflict between Russia and Ukraine continues to escalate, there will be four possible impacts:</p><p>For the global economy: Russia is likely to face a new round of sanctions; Given that Russia is the world's major exporter of energy and raw materials, it is necessary to be alert to the derivative risks of rising commodity prices caused by sanctions against Russia. For asset prices: Referring to the aforementioned experience, if only this conflict is considered, there will still be downward pressure on global stock markets in the next month, Treasury Bond yields will trend downward, and crude oil and gold are expected to rise further. However, after one month, the trend of asset prices will return to fundamental dominance; The prices of steel, corn, wheat, barley, fertilizer and other commodities may rise further in the short term due to supply disruptions. For global inflation: pushing up oil prices to a high level in the short term and increasing global inflationary pressure, among which: 1) U.S. inflation is still high in the short term, and the inflection point of the decline will also be delayed; 2) For China, according to calculations, if oil prices rise by 10%, it will drive CPI and PPI up by 0.09% and 0.4% respectively. It is expected that the CPI will remain low at first and then high throughout the year, and it will be difficult to change the downward trend of PPI even if oil prices rise; 3) Given that the impact of rising oil prices on PPI is significantly greater than CPI, this will disturb the convergence rhythm of my country's PPI-CPI scissors difference, and will also disturb the upstream and downstream transmission rhythm of corporate profits. On the pace of the Fed's rate hike: The conflict between Russia and Ukraine will aggravate the uncertainty of the global economic outlook, and will also increase the downward pressure on U.S. stocks, which will restrict the pace of the Fed's rate hike. In fact, since mid-February, expectations for the Fed's rate hike have begun to cool down. Maintain the previous judgment: in 2022, the Federal Reserve will be hawkish first and then dove, and it is expected that there will be 3-4 rate hike throughout the year. The body is as follows:</p><p>1. The conflict between Russia and Ukraine continues to escalate, and the possibility of evolving into war has greatly increased. The Russia-Ukraine issue has a long history, and the core differences lie in \"NATO's eastward expansion\" and \"Ukraine's accession to NATO.\" In mid-January 2022, Russia held talks with the United States, NATO, and OSCE on the situation in Ukraine, but did not achieve significant results. After a month-long game, the conflict between the two sides escalated again: on the 21st, Russian President Vladimir Putin signed a presidential decree recognizing Donetsk People's Republic and Luhansk People's Republic, and signed a treaty of friendship, cooperation and mutual assistance between Russia and the two. At the same time, he ordered \"peacekeeping forces\" to enter the area, which greatly increased the possibility of the conflict between the two sides turning into war. In response, the U.S. announced financial sanctions against Russia and warned it was ready to impose more if necessary.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6af52f7a91e964f09f82387d80558d85\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"707\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a906fdd0c25182405d6b9ff629db6791\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"607\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/>2. Taking history as a mirror, the impact of geopolitical conflicts on assets: short-term negative risk assets, good hedging and resource products, weak medium and long-term impact</p><p>In order to better compare, we selected \"five large-scale geopolitical conflicts involving major powers\" since 2000 as the analysis objects, including the 2001 Afghanistan War, the 2003 Iraq War, the 2011 Libya War & Syria War, and the 2014 Crimea referendum. During the conflict, the performance of various asset prices is as follows:</p><p>Stock market: U.S. stocks generally fell in the short term, and the decline range was basically 10-30 days, and then started to rise again; A-shares mostly show a rise in the short term, and there is no consistent pattern in the medium and long term. The divergence between A-shares and US stocks is due to the fact that these rounds of geopolitical conflicts have not involved China, and on the other hand, the correlation between A-shares and US stocks before 2015 was low;<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e270fdee3a166416e98f5c2fdf52ea3d\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"400\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Bond market: 10Y U.S. bond yields generally fell in the short term, and the downward range was also 10-30 days, and then continued to decline after a short rebound; The yield of 10Y ChinaBond also mostly declined in the short term, and the medium and long-term trend was volatile;</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7697addec2acb2db96ccf9e263363fbf\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"407\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Exchange rate: the US Dollar Index has fallen continuously for three times, risen continuously for one time, and volatile once;</p><p>Gold: Spot gold continued to fall twice, continued to rise twice, and fell first and then rose once;</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f0550757b3c7c99d521b0a87637d529a\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"411\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Crude oil: Crude oil prices generally rise in the short term, and the rising range is also 10-30 days. There is no consistent pattern in the medium and long-term trend;</p><p>Copper: Copper prices mostly fall in the short term, and the decline range is also 10-30 days. There is no consistent pattern in the medium and long-term trend.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/58e7067c2e912053babb0dedecb700c7\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"394\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/>Summary of the law: To sum up, it can be seen that geopolitical conflicts will be negative for risky assets and good for safe-haven assets and energy products in the short term. The impact is often concentrated in 10-30 days after the outbreak of the conflict, and the impact on the medium and long-term trend of asset prices is weak.</p><p>3. Four-point deduction of the impact of the Russia-Ukraine conflict: global economy, asset prices, global inflation, and the rhythm of the Fed's rate hike</p><p>1) Impact on the global economy: If the conflict continues to escalate, Russia will most likely face a new round of sanctions, which will also drag down the global economy. As of 2020, Russia's GDP and total import and export merchandise volume were US $1.5 trillion and US $569.3 billion respectively, accounting for 1.7% and 1.6% of the world's total respectively. It is expected that the direct impact on the global economy and trade will be limited. However, considering that Russia is the world's major exporter of energy and raw materials, it is necessary to be alert to the risks derived from rising commodity prices caused by sanctions against Russia. For example, Russia's natural gas exports in 2020 were approximately 199.9 billion cubic meters, accounting for approximately 16.2% of global natural gas exports, of which approximately 80% were exported to Europe, accounting for more than 40% of European natural gas imports. If the situation between Russia and Ukraine continues to be tense, the United States and Europe The launch of a new round of sanctions against Russia will further aggravate the natural gas shortage pattern in Europe, thus dragging down the European economy.</p><p>2) Impact on asset prices: Combined with the aforementioned analysis, if the fire in the eastern Wudong region on February 17 is used as the starting point for the outbreak of the conflict, there will still be downward pressure on global stock markets in the next month, and Treasury Bond yields will still trend downward., crude oil and gold are expected to rise further; But after a month, asset price trends will return to fundamentals. In addition, Russia and Ukraine are also important exporters of steel, corn, wheat, barley, fertilizer and other commodities in the world (see Figure 11 for specific commodities and shares). If the conflict between the two sides continues to intensify, the prices of these commodities may rise further due to supply disruptions in the short term.<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5b5c88fd3fca5f8262509fb196612c61\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"671\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a82a027493d3e9b071117b063493e8d8\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"379\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/>3) Impact on inflation: pushing up oil prices to a high level in the short term and increasing global inflationary pressure, but it is difficult to change the downward trend of my country's PPI</p><p>U.S. inflation: It is still high in the short term, and the inflection point of the decline will also be delayed. We have pointed out many times in previous reports that inflation in developed countries such as the United States is greatly affected by energy prices. According to rough estimates, if the average oil price in the next 1-3 months is assumed to be US $105/barrel, the CPI in the United States from February to March will further rise to about 8% year-on-year; If oil prices cannot fall quickly, the inflection point of U.S. inflation may be delayed until around May.<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0bf730b4ac6bfc18f1c5eb4f702a4166\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"792\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/>China's inflation: According to calculations, if oil prices rise by 10%, it will drive CPI and PPI up by 0.09% and 0.4% respectively; Throughout the year, CPI is expected to remain low at first and then high, and the upward trend of oil prices is expected to be difficult to change the downward trend of PPI.</p><p>1) CPI: Oil prices mainly affect the two sub-items of CPI: residential water, electricity and fuel, and transportation fuel. If oil prices rise by 10% year-on-year, it will drive the above two sub-items to rise by 0.8 and 2.3 percentage points respectively. Combined with the weight of the above sub-items in CPI, it can be converted that if oil prices rise by 10% year-on-year, it may drive the CPI up by 0.09 percentage points year-on-year. In the short term, the average oil price in the first 21 days of February rose to US $92.7/barrel, a year-on-year increase of 48.8%, which is expected to boost the CPI by about 0.5 percentage points year-on-year. Considering the price changes of base, food, and non-food items, it is expected that the CPI in February may rebound slightly year-on-year. Looking at the whole year, the CPI is expected to remain low before and then high. Under the benchmark scenario, the center of the whole year may be higher than 2.0%.</p><p>2) PPI: Oil prices mainly affect PPI oil and gas exploitation, fuel processing, chemical manufacturing, chemical fiber manufacturing and other sub-items. 7.3, 4.1, 2.0 and 2.2 percentage points. Considering that the above sub-items account for 0.7%, 4.3%, 6.5% and 0.8% of PPI respectively, it can be converted that if oil prices rise by 10% year-on-year, it may drive PPI up by 0.4 percentage points year-on-year. In the short term, oil prices in February are expected to drive PPI up by about 1.9 percentage points; Considering the base and other industrial product price changes, the PPI in February may still fall slightly year-on-year. Throughout the year, as the PPI base rebounds month by month, the rise in oil prices is likely to be difficult to change the downward trend of PPI.<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3ed90879ecee1fc82d23a7e0d11ddee4\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"452\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/911d90c91485c6f8978e6b5b054adbd3\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"442\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/>Disturbing the convergence rhythm of PPI-CPI scissors difference & the upstream and downstream transmission rhythm of corporate profits. Based on the previous calculation, the impact of rising oil prices on PPI is significantly greater than that of CPI; Therefore, the rise in oil prices may disturb the convergence rhythm of PPI-CPI scissors difference and the upstream and downstream transmission rhythm of profits. Specifically, upstream profits may remain at a relatively high level in the short term, and the uncertainty of improving midstream and downstream profits will increase. From an industrial perspective, the profits of oil and gas exploration, fuel processing, chemical industry, chemical fiber and other industries are positively correlated with oil prices, while the profits of the rubber and plastics industry are negatively correlated with oil prices. If oil prices continue to remain at a high level, there may be support for profits in industries such as oil and gas exploration, and the suppression of the rubber and plastics industry may continue to exist. (For details, please refer to the previous report \"Profit will be transmitted upstream and downstream in 2022-Calculation based on PPI-CPI scissors difference\")<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/70c1dc18b4888a8b1fd254b88563c399\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"458\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/>4) Impact on the pace of the Fed's rate hike: On the one hand, as analyzed earlier, this conflict may raise U.S. inflation and delay the inflection point of inflation, but the current Fed's rate hike expectations have fully reflected high inflation; On the other hand, the conflict between Russia and Ukraine has intensified the uncertainty of the global economic outlook and increased the downward pressure on U.S. stocks, which will restrict the pace of the Federal Reserve's rate hike. Taken together, interest rate futures data shows that since mid-February, the market expects the number of rate hike in March to drop from 1.7 to 1.2, and the number of rate hike in the whole year to drop from 6.6 to 5.9, reflecting that rate hike expectations have begun to cool down. Maintain our previous judgment: in 2022, the Federal Reserve will be hawkish first and then dove, and it is expected that there will be 3-4 rate hike throughout the year.<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7b9bbc1d19f9386cdf6bd129a69fefaf\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"807\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/>Risk warning: The conflict between Russia and Ukraine has evolved beyond expectations.</p><p></body></html></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> source：<a href=\"https://www.cls.cn/detail/940565\">熊园观察</a></p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0bc03fbf058ce151dd2a13f771bc11dc","relate_stocks":{"159934":"黄金ETF","161125":"标普500","513500":"标普500ETF","518880":"黄金ETF","UNG":"美国天然气基金","DWT":"三倍做空原油ETN","SPXU":"三倍做空标普500ETF-ProShares","SH":"做空标普500-Proshares","BK4559":"巴菲特持仓","DUST":"二倍做空黄金矿业指数ETF-Direxion","BK4504":"桥水持仓","SSO":"2倍做多标普500ETF-ProShares","DJX":"1/100道琼斯","UCO":"二倍做多彭博原油ETF","IVV":"标普500ETF-iShares","QLD":"2倍做多纳斯达克100指数ETF-ProShares",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index","OEF":"标普100指数ETF-iShares","SPY":"标普500ETF","TQQQ":"纳指三倍做多ETF","UGAZ":"三倍做多天然气ETN(VelocityShares)","IAU":"黄金信托ETF-iShares","DDM":"2倍做多道指ETF-ProShares",".DJI":"道琼斯","QID":"两倍做空纳斯达克指数ETF-ProShares","SDS":"两倍做空标普500 ETF-ProShares","DOG":"道指ETF-ProShares做空",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite","BK4534":"瑞士信贷持仓","OEX":"标普100","USO":"美国原油ETF","SQQQ":"纳指三倍做空ETF","PSQ":"做空纳斯达克100指数ETF-ProShares","UDOW":"三倍做多道指30ETF-ProShares","DUG":"二倍做空石油与天然气ETF(ProShares)","SCO":"二倍做空彭博原油指数ETF"},"source_url":"https://www.cls.cn/detail/940565","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2213496312","content_text":"摘要：俄乌冲突加剧了全球经济前景的不确定性，也加大了美股下跌压力，从而会制约美联储加息步伐。事件：当地时间2月21日，俄罗斯总统普京签署承认乌东两地顿涅茨克和卢甘斯克的人民共和国总统令，并签署俄罗斯与二者的友好合作互助条约，全球股市大跌，原油、黄金大涨。核心结论：1、俄乌冲突持续升级，演化成战争的可能性大增。2、以史为鉴，地缘冲突后大类资产的表现规律：短期会利空风险资产，利好避险资产和能源品，影响往往集中在冲突爆发后的10-30天，对资产价格中长期走势的影响较弱。3、如果本次俄乌冲突持续升级，可能的4点影响：对全球经济：俄罗斯大概率会面临新一轮制裁；鉴于俄罗斯是全球主要的能源、原材料出口国，需警惕制裁俄罗斯导致大宗商品价格上涨的衍生风险。对资产价格：参照前述经验，若仅考虑本次冲突，未来一个月内全球股市仍有下跌压力，国债收益率趋下行，原油和黄金有望进一步上涨，但一个月之后，资产价格走势将重新回归基本面主导；钢铁、玉米、小麦、大麦、肥料等商品价格，短期内可能因供给受阻而进一步上涨。对全球通胀：推升油价短期处于高位，加大全球通胀压力，其中：1）美国通胀短期仍高，回落拐点也将延后；2）对中国，按照测算，如果油价上涨10%，将分别拉动CPI、PPI上行0.09%、0.4%，预计全年CPI仍将前低后高，油价上行也难改PPI下行趋势；3）鉴于油价上涨对PPI的影响明显大于CPI，这将扰动我国PPI-CPI剪刀差收敛节奏，也会扰动企业盈利上下游传导节奏。对美联储加息节奏：俄乌冲突将加剧全球经济前景的不确定性，也将加大美股下跌压力，从而会制约美联储加息步伐。事实上，2月中旬以来，美联储加息预期已开始降温。维持此前判断：2022年美联储将先鹰后鸽，预计全年加息3-4次。正文如下：1、俄乌冲突持续升级，演化成战争的可能性大增。俄乌问题由来已久，其中核心分歧在于“北约东扩”、“乌克兰加入北约”，2022年1月中旬俄罗斯曾先后与美国、北约、欧安组织就乌克兰局势举行会谈，但未取得明显成效。经过长达1个月的博弈，双方冲突再度升级：21日俄罗斯总统普京签署了承认顿涅茨克人民共和国和卢甘斯克人民共和国的总统令，并签署俄罗斯与二者的友好合作互助条约，同时下令“维和部队”进入该地区，双方冲突演变成战争的可能性大增。作为回应，美国宣布对俄罗斯实施金融制裁，并警告说如有必要，准备实施更多制裁。2、以史为鉴，地缘冲突对资产的影响：短期利空风险资产、利好避险和资源品，中长期影响较弱为了更好地对比，我们选取2000年以来“5次规模较大、涉及主要大国的地缘冲突”作为分析对象，包括2001年阿富汗战争、2003年伊拉克战争、2011年利比亚战争&叙利亚战争，2014年克里米亚公投，冲突爆发期间，各类资产价格的表现情况如下：股市：美股短期普遍下跌，下跌区间基本在10-30天，随后重新开始上涨；A股则短期大多表现为上涨，中长期走势无一致规律。A股与美股背离，一方面是由于这几轮地缘冲突均未涉及中国，另一方面则是2015年之前A股与美股相关性较低；债市：10Y美债收益率短期普遍下行，下行区间同样在10-30天，随后在短暂反弹后继续下行；10Y中债收益率短期也大多下行，中长期走势偏震荡；汇率：美元指数有3次持续下跌、1次持续上涨、1次偏震荡；黄金：现货黄金2次持续下跌、2次持续上涨、1次先跌后涨；原油：原油价格短期普遍上涨，上涨区间同样在10-30天，中长期走势无一致规律；铜：铜价短期大多下跌，下跌区间同样在10-30天，中长期走势无一致规律。规律总结：综上梳理可知，地缘冲突短期会利空风险资产、利好避险资产和能源品，影响往往集中在冲突爆发后的10-30天，对资产价格中长期走势的影响较弱。3、本次俄乌冲突影响的4点推演：全球经济、资产价格、全球通胀、美联储加息节奏1）对全球经济的影响：如果冲突继续升级，俄罗斯大概率会面临新一轮制裁，也将对全球经济形成拖累。截至2020年，俄罗斯GDP、进出口商品总额分别为1.5万亿美元、5693亿美元，分别占全球的1.7%、1.6%，预计对全球经济和贸易的直接影响有限。但考虑到俄罗斯是全球主要的能源、原材料出口国，需警惕制裁俄罗斯导致大宗商品价格上涨衍生出来的风险。比如，2020年俄罗斯天然气出口约1999亿立方米，占全球天然气出口的份额约16.2%，其中约80%出口欧洲，占欧洲天然气进口的40%以上，如果后续俄乌局势持续紧张、美欧对俄罗斯开启新一轮制裁，将进一步加剧欧洲天然气短缺格局，从而拖累欧洲经济。2）对资产价格的影响：结合前述分析，若以2月17日乌东地区开火作为冲突爆发的起点，则未来近一个月的时间内全球股市仍有下跌压力，国债收益率仍趋下行，原油和黄金有望进一步上涨；但一个月之后，资产价格走势将重新回归基本面主导。此外，俄罗斯和乌克兰也是全球钢铁、玉米、小麦、大麦、肥料等商品的重要出口国（具体商品和份额见图表11），若双方冲突持续加剧，短期内这些商品的价格可能因供给受阻而进一步上涨。3）对通胀的影响：推升油价短期处于高位，加大全球通胀压力，但难改我国PPI下行趋势美国通胀：短期仍高，回落拐点也将延迟。前期报告我们多次指出，美国等发达国家通胀受能源价格影响较大。根据粗略估算，若假设油价未来1-3个月均值均为105美元/桶，美国2-3月CPI同比将进一步升至8%左右；若油价无法快速回落，美国通胀拐点时间可能延迟到5月前后。中国通胀：按照测算，如果油价上涨10%，将分别拉动CPI、PPI上行0.09%、0.4%；全年看，CPI预计仍将前低后高，油价上行预计难改PPI下行趋势。1）CPI：油价主要影响CPI居住水电燃料、交通工具用燃料两个分项，如果油价同比上涨10%，将分别带动上述两个分项上涨0.8、2.3个百分点，结合上述分项占CPI的权重，可以折算如果油价同比上涨10%，可能拉动CPI同比上行0.09个百分点。短期看，2月前21天油价均值涨至92.7美元/桶，同比增48.8%，预计将提振CPI同比约0.5个百分点，综合考虑基数、食品、非食品分项价格变动，预计2月CPI同比可能小幅回升。全年看，CPI预计仍会维持前低后高，基准情形下全年中枢可能高于2.0%。2）PPI：油价主要影响PPI油气开采、燃料加工、化工制造、化纤制造等分项，按照模型测算，如果油价上涨10%，将分别带动PPI油气开采、燃料加工、化工、化纤分项上行7.3、4.1、2.0和2.2个百分点，考虑上述分项占PPI的比重分别为0.7%、4.3%、6.5%和0.8%，可以折算如果油价同比上涨10%，可能拉动PPI同比上行0.4个百分点。短期看，2月油价预计拉动PPI上行约1.9个百分点；综合考虑基数及其他工业品价格变动，2月PPI同比可能仍将小幅回落。全年看，由于PPI基数逐月回升，油价上涨大概率难改PPI下行趋势。扰动PPI-CPI剪刀差收敛节奏&企业盈利上下游传导节奏。基于前文的测算，油价上涨对PPI的影响明显大于CPI；因此油价上涨可能对PPI-CPI剪刀差收敛节奏和盈利上下游传导节奏均形成扰动。具体看，上游盈利短期可能仍将处于较高水平，中下游盈利改善的不确定性增加。产业视角看，油气开采、燃料加工、化工、化纤等行业盈利跟油价正相关，橡胶塑料行业盈利跟油价负相关。如果油价持续处于较高水平，油气开采等行业盈利可能存在支撑，对橡胶塑料行业的压制可能持续存在。（详见前期报告《2022年盈利将上下游传导—基于PPI-CPI剪刀差的测算》）4）对美联储加息节奏的影响：一方面，如前分析，本次冲突可能抬升美国通胀并延后通胀拐点，但当前美联储加息预期已充分反映了高通胀；另一方面，俄乌冲突加剧了全球经济前景的不确定性，也加大了美股下跌压力，从而会制约美联储加息步伐。综合看，利率期货数据显示，2月中旬以来，市场预期3月加息次数由1.7次降至1.2次，全年加息次数由6.6次降至5.9次，反映出加息预期已开始降温。维持我们此前判断：2022年美联储将先鹰后鸽，预计全年加息3-4次。风险提示：俄乌冲突超预期演化。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"159934":0.6,"161125":0.6,"513500":0.6,"518880":0.6,"SH":0.6,"SSO":0.6,"IVV":0.6,"QID":0.6,"DOG":0.6,"SPXU":0.6,"USO":0.6,"TNmain":0.9,"ZBmain":0.9,"MGCmain":0.6,"UWTIF":0.6,"UNG":0.6,"ZTmain":0.9,"TQQQ":0.6,"SDS":0.6,"DUST":0.6,"SQQQ":0.6,"UGAZ":0.6,"IAU":0.6,"OEF":0.6,".IXIC":0.9,"DWT":0.6,"SCO":0.6,"QMmain":0.6,"SGUmain":0.6,"DWTIF":0.6,"UBmain":0.9,"PSQ":0.6,"NGmain":0.9,".SPX":0.6,"DUG":0.6,"QLD":0.6,"OEX":0.6,"DDM":0.6,"ZNmain":0.9,"SPY":0.9,"DJX":0.6,"UDOW":0.6,"UCO":0.6,"ZFmain":0.9,"BZmain":0.6,".DJI":0.9,"CLmain":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":555,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9097673287,"gmtCreate":1645456042638,"gmtModify":1676534029441,"author":{"id":"3576729709142650","authorId":"3576729709142650","name":"Sunc","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/12ea94f8a6bfc2835bf320bed8216f7d","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3576729709142650","idStr":"3576729709142650"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"ok","listText":"ok","text":"ok","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":4,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9097673287","repostId":"2212677275","repostTy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10:45","market":"hk","language":"zh","title":"Learn from history! How will U.S. stocks perform in the tightening cycle?","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2212677275","media":"华尔街见闻","summary":"近期，激进加息预期激增，华尔街分析师都在思考一个问题：本次紧缩周期中美股会作何反应？美国银行在最新报告中指出，绝大多数乐观派认为，在过去的七个加息周期中，标普500指数一直是正回报。但这几乎只出现在经","content":"<p><html><head></head><body>Recently, radical rate hike expectations have surged, and Wall Street analysts are thinking about a question: How will U.S. stocks react in this tightening cycle?<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BAC\">Bank of America</a>In the latest report, it is pointed out that the vast majority of optimists believe that the S&P 500 has been having positive returns in the past seven rate hike cycles.<b>But this has almost exclusively occurred during phases of accelerating economic growth, with returns flat or declining since 1950 when the economic recovery slowed.</b><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/cd1e1ffad540c4f6e7aa2033aae33859\" tg-width=\"1560\" tg-height=\"924\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>There is also a bigger risk in the upcoming tightening cycle,<b>The current valuation of the U.S. stock market is on the high side.</b></p><p>In fact, the S&P 500 index before this first rate hike was more expensive than any other rate hike cycle except the 1999-2000 period.</p><p>To make matters worse, the real interest cost of debt is negative this time, while in 1999, the cost of equity was negative. During this cycle, Federal Funds rate rose 150 basis points and the market moved higher along the way, but the S&P peaked in March 2000 and then fell 49% over the next two and a half years.</p><p>Considering these two main risk factors, even though the upcoming tightening cycle may be short-lived (Federal Funds rate futures have already reflected at least two rate cuts before 2024), Bank of America is in the bear camp this time.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/bc5ab5839fdac8ef84d42f03c1885828\" tg-width=\"1648\" tg-height=\"784\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><b>Bond Alternatives Worst Perform, Cyclicals Best</b></p><p>Bank of America believes that from the perspective of industry sectors, bond alternative stocks performed the worst, and cyclical sectors performed the best.</p><p>In historical tightening cycles, bond alternatives such as utilities and real estate, as well as industrial stocks, have performed worse than the S&P 500.</p><p>The consumer discretionary sector has outperformed the S&P 500 and outperformed other sectors, but it currently faces risks from high labor intensity and wage pressures.</p><p><b>Other sectors that have historically performed well include tech, energy, materials, and everyday consumer goods.</b></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/cf2396603b1b718b964d5584d7b23d32\" tg-width=\"1508\" tg-height=\"786\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/><b>However, in a rate hike cycle, the dispersion of industry alpha is greater, and the stock factor may be a better explanatory variable.</b></p><p>Within one year of the Fed's rate hike, stock market factors performed well with low enterprise value multiples (EV/EBITDA), high valuations and low net value per share, with low enterprise value multiples and high enterprise value/free cash flow leading each cycle, and stocks with low net value per share outperforming the broader market 80% of the time. The currently lower-priced sectors, as measured by these metrics, are energy materials and healthcare.<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ac082cc07dc1c56833e8d373417f1682\" tg-width=\"1568\" tg-height=\"902\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/>Small-caps outperform large-cap stocks</p><p>Bank of America believes that the company's circulating equity can also be a good measure of the company's performance in the rate hike.</p><p><b>Small-cap stocks usually perform better in the months before the rate hike begins, and slightly weaker after the rate hike begins.</b>But unlike other rate hike cycles, small-cap stocks are currently cheaper than large-cap stocks.<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6d1deb9d33895b10c21ecd6863c8e597\" tg-width=\"1668\" tg-height=\"1202\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/>P/E for small-cap stocks typically rises 5-6% in the first three months of a rate hike and falls 8% during the rally. But the P/E of the Russell 2000 Index has fallen by 12% since November last year, the lowest level since 2000 relative to P/E.</p><p>At the same time, the performance of small-cap stocks than large-cap stocks is much more correlated with 10-year changes (positive correlation) than with Federal Funds rate changes (little correlation).</p><p>The Bank of America report also pointed out that faster tightening will not be more detrimental to small businesses, and there is no correlation between rate hike speed and relative scale performance.</p><p><b>Furthermore, during balance sheet shrinkage, history suggests stocks > bonds, value stocks > growth stocks, and large cap stocks = small cap stocks.</b><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1deea07177357b743f796a2d50d1956c\" tg-width=\"1636\" tg-height=\"770\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p></body></html></p>","source":"wallstreetcn_api","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Learn from history! How will U.S. stocks perform in the tightening cycle?</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nLearn from history! How will U.S. stocks perform in the tightening cycle?\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">华尔街见闻</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2022-02-21 10:45</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><html><head></head><body>Recently, radical rate hike expectations have surged, and Wall Street analysts are thinking about a question: How will U.S. stocks react in this tightening cycle?<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BAC\">Bank of America</a>In the latest report, it is pointed out that the vast majority of optimists believe that the S&P 500 has been having positive returns in the past seven rate hike cycles.<b>But this has almost exclusively occurred during phases of accelerating economic growth, with returns flat or declining since 1950 when the economic recovery slowed.</b><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/cd1e1ffad540c4f6e7aa2033aae33859\" tg-width=\"1560\" tg-height=\"924\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>There is also a bigger risk in the upcoming tightening cycle,<b>The current valuation of the U.S. stock market is on the high side.</b></p><p>In fact, the S&P 500 index before this first rate hike was more expensive than any other rate hike cycle except the 1999-2000 period.</p><p>To make matters worse, the real interest cost of debt is negative this time, while in 1999, the cost of equity was negative. During this cycle, Federal Funds rate rose 150 basis points and the market moved higher along the way, but the S&P peaked in March 2000 and then fell 49% over the next two and a half years.</p><p>Considering these two main risk factors, even though the upcoming tightening cycle may be short-lived (Federal Funds rate futures have already reflected at least two rate cuts before 2024), Bank of America is in the bear camp this time.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/bc5ab5839fdac8ef84d42f03c1885828\" tg-width=\"1648\" tg-height=\"784\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><b>Bond Alternatives Worst Perform, Cyclicals Best</b></p><p>Bank of America believes that from the perspective of industry sectors, bond alternative stocks performed the worst, and cyclical sectors performed the best.</p><p>In historical tightening cycles, bond alternatives such as utilities and real estate, as well as industrial stocks, have performed worse than the S&P 500.</p><p>The consumer discretionary sector has outperformed the S&P 500 and outperformed other sectors, but it currently faces risks from high labor intensity and wage pressures.</p><p><b>Other sectors that have historically performed well include tech, energy, materials, and everyday consumer goods.</b></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/cf2396603b1b718b964d5584d7b23d32\" tg-width=\"1508\" tg-height=\"786\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/><b>However, in a rate hike cycle, the dispersion of industry alpha is greater, and the stock factor may be a better explanatory variable.</b></p><p>Within one year of the Fed's rate hike, stock market factors performed well with low enterprise value multiples (EV/EBITDA), high valuations and low net value per share, with low enterprise value multiples and high enterprise value/free cash flow leading each cycle, and stocks with low net value per share outperforming the broader market 80% of the time. The currently lower-priced sectors, as measured by these metrics, are energy materials and healthcare.<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ac082cc07dc1c56833e8d373417f1682\" tg-width=\"1568\" tg-height=\"902\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/>Small-caps outperform large-cap stocks</p><p>Bank of America believes that the company's circulating equity can also be a good measure of the company's performance in the rate hike.</p><p><b>Small-cap stocks usually perform better in the months before the rate hike begins, and slightly weaker after the rate hike begins.</b>But unlike other rate hike cycles, small-cap stocks are currently cheaper than large-cap stocks.<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6d1deb9d33895b10c21ecd6863c8e597\" tg-width=\"1668\" tg-height=\"1202\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/>P/E for small-cap stocks typically rises 5-6% in the first three months of a rate hike and falls 8% during the rally. But the P/E of the Russell 2000 Index has fallen by 12% since November last year, the lowest level since 2000 relative to P/E.</p><p>At the same time, the performance of small-cap stocks than large-cap stocks is much more correlated with 10-year changes (positive correlation) than with Federal Funds rate changes (little correlation).</p><p>The Bank of America report also pointed out that faster tightening will not be more detrimental to small businesses, and there is no correlation between rate hike speed and relative scale performance.</p><p><b>Furthermore, during balance sheet shrinkage, history suggests stocks > bonds, value stocks > growth stocks, and large cap stocks = small cap stocks.</b><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1deea07177357b743f796a2d50d1956c\" tg-width=\"1636\" tg-height=\"770\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p></body></html></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> source：<a href=\"https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3652358\">华尔街见闻</a></p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1c7221d934f1008e531bdf79c8cfe0ee","relate_stocks":{"BK4559":"巴菲特持仓","SPY":"标普500ETF","BK4504":"桥水持仓","BK4553":"喜马拉雅资本持仓","BK4207":"综合性银行","BK4550":"红杉资本持仓","BAC":"美国银行","BK4534":"瑞士信贷持仓"},"source_url":"https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3652358","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2212677275","content_text":"近期，激进加息预期激增，华尔街分析师都在思考一个问题：本次紧缩周期中美股会作何反应？美国银行在最新报告中指出，绝大多数乐观派认为，在过去的七个加息周期中，标普500指数一直是正回报。但这几乎只出现在经济增长加速的阶段，自1950年以来，当经济复苏放缓时，回报率持平或下降。在即将到来的紧缩周期中，还有一个更大的风险，当前美股市场估值偏高。事实上，本轮首次加息前的标普500指数比除了1999-2000年期间之外的任何其它加息周期都要昂贵。更糟的是，这次债务的实际利息成本是负的，而在1999年，权益成本是负的。在这一周期中，联邦基金利率上升了150个基点，市场在上升过程中走高，但标普指数在2000年3月见顶，随后在接下来的两年半中下跌了49%。考虑到这两个主要风险因素，即使将到来的紧缩周期可能是短暂的（联邦基金利率期货已经反映出在2024年之前至少两次降息），美银这次也站队熊市阵营。债券替代股表现最差，周期股表现最好美银认为，从行业板块来看，债券替代股表现最差，周期性板块表现最好。在历史紧缩周期中，公用事业、房地产等债券替代股以及工业股表现比标普500要差。非必需消费品板块的表现比标普500指数要好，且超过其他板块，但目前该板块面临高劳动强度和工资压力带来的风险。历史上其他表现良好的行业包括科技、能源、材料和日常消费品。但在加息周期中，行业alpha的离散程度较大，而股票因子可能是一个更好的解释变量。在美联储开启加息的一年内，股市因子表现为企业价值倍数低（EV/EBITDA）、估值高和每股净值低的表现良好，低企业价值倍数和高企业价值/自由现金流在每个周期中领先，每股净值低的股票在80%的情况下优于大盘。按这些指标衡量，目前价格较低的行业是能源材料和医疗保健。小盘股表现优于大盘股美银认为，公司流通股本也能很好等衡量公司在加息中的表现。加息开始前几个月小盘股通常表现要好，加息开始后小盘股表现稍弱。但与其他加息周期不同，目前小盘股比大型股价格要便宜。小盘股的市盈率通常在加息前三个月上升5-6%，在上涨期间下降8%。但罗素2000指数的市盈率自去年11月以来已经下跌了12%，相对市盈率是2000年以来的最低水平。同时，小盘股比大盘股表现与10年期变化的相关性(正相关)要比与联邦基金利率变化的相关性(几乎没有相关性)大得多。美银报告还指出，更快的紧缩不会对小企业更不利，加息速度与相对规模表现之间没有相关性。此外，在资产负债表缩减期间，历史表明股票>债券，价值股>成长股，大盘股=小盘股。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"ESmain":0.85,"ZFmain":0.9,"ZNmain":0.9,"ZTmain":0.9,"TNmain":0.9,"ZBmain":0.9,"UBmain":0.9,"SPY":0.6,"BAC":0.73}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":502,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9004106474,"gmtCreate":1642519808450,"gmtModify":1676533718367,"author":{"id":"3576729709142650","authorId":"3576729709142650","name":"Sunc","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/12ea94f8a6bfc2835bf320bed8216f7d","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3576729709142650","idStr":"3576729709142650"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"ok","listText":"ok","text":"ok","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9004106474","repostId":"1163230636","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":562,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9002658484,"gmtCreate":1642000753093,"gmtModify":1676533670610,"author":{"id":"3576729709142650","authorId":"3576729709142650","name":"Sunc","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/12ea94f8a6bfc2835bf320bed8216f7d","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3576729709142650","idStr":"3576729709142650"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"ok","listText":"ok","text":"ok","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":6,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9002658484","repostId":"1124764834","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":932,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0}],"lives":[]}