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Daniel008
2021-06-30
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@杭州下午健身:當然, 真要做空, 我也不會去做空MRIN, BSQR
Daniel008
2021-06-25
$Marin Software Inc.(MRIN)$
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Daniel008
2021-04-14
m
Madoff and his Ponzi scheme: Lie to you because you are crazy
Daniel008
2021-03-10
m
@儿子娃娃:30支疫情受害價值股
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真要做空, 我也不會去做空MRIN, BSQR","htmlText":"1 成交量有50多萬, 對於做空來說太高了<a target=\"_blank\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BSQR\">$BSQUARE科技(BSQR)$</a> <a target=\"_blank\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MRIN\">$Marin Software Inc.(MRIN)$</a> 雖然BSQR開局走得不好, 但成交量也有個50多萬. 所以我肯定不會去做空.因爲根據經驗, 50萬以上的成交量, 在小範圍內可以隨意上串下跳, 沒人攔得住. 低於100萬的話, 沒必要指望突破一些關鍵阻力位. 但是100萬以上的話, 股價基本就是想去哪就去哪. 50萬的話, 15%空間內自由舒展筋骨還是沒問題的.2 做空也是做情緒, 需要期望變失望, 需要大量的懊惱 後悔股價跌到2塊3的時候, 爲什麼不能去zhui追跌. 因爲彩票還沒開, 會漲會跌還不知道. 根據經驗, 多頭是很頭鐵的, 會不計較風險一路把股價頂上來. 做一些損人不利己的事情. 所以必需得等到股價答案揭曉了, 衝到2塊5毛附近, 崩盤了, 這時候多頭纔會開始後悔. 所以說, 做空必需衝着買家的情緒去, 得做空這種 由期望變失望的股價走勢. 要不然, 答案還沒揭曉的時候, 多頭的精神狀態還很飽滿, 會把股價頂上來, 逼出做空的止損單, 然後自己也被套住. 做這種損人不利己的事情. 3 需要一些大的崩盤線, 讓人來不及止損的那種一個大問題是什麼, 就是多頭是源源不絕的, 一波接着一波又一波, 永遠不怕虧損得買進來, 沒完沒了.所以就需要衝高的時候出現一些崩盤線, 讓上面的資金來不及止損, 從期待突破, 變成後悔自己爲什麼不早點離場. 二, 把後面的資","listText":"1 成交量有50多萬, 對於做空來說太高了<a target=\"_blank\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BSQR\">$BSQUARE科技(BSQR)$</a> <a target=\"_blank\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MRIN\">$Marin Software Inc.(MRIN)$</a> 雖然BSQR開局走得不好, 但成交量也有個50多萬. 所以我肯定不會去做空.因爲根據經驗, 50萬以上的成交量, 在小範圍內可以隨意上串下跳, 沒人攔得住. 低於100萬的話, 沒必要指望突破一些關鍵阻力位. 但是100萬以上的話, 股價基本就是想去哪就去哪. 50萬的話, 15%空間內自由舒展筋骨還是沒問題的.2 做空也是做情緒, 需要期望變失望, 需要大量的懊惱 後悔股價跌到2塊3的時候, 爲什麼不能去zhui追跌. 因爲彩票還沒開, 會漲會跌還不知道. 根據經驗, 多頭是很頭鐵的, 會不計較風險一路把股價頂上來. 做一些損人不利己的事情. 所以必需得等到股價答案揭曉了, 衝到2塊5毛附近, 崩盤了, 這時候多頭纔會開始後悔. 所以說, 做空必需衝着買家的情緒去, 得做空這種 由期望變失望的股價走勢. 要不然, 答案還沒揭曉的時候, 多頭的精神狀態還很飽滿, 會把股價頂上來, 逼出做空的止損單, 然後自己也被套住. 做這種損人不利己的事情. 3 需要一些大的崩盤線, 讓人來不及止損的那種一個大問題是什麼, 就是多頭是源源不絕的, 一波接着一波又一波, 永遠不怕虧損得買進來, 沒完沒了.所以就需要衝高的時候出現一些崩盤線, 讓上面的資金來不及止損, 從期待突破, 變成後悔自己爲什麼不早點離場. 二, 把後面的資","text":"1 成交量有50多萬, 對於做空來說太高了$BSQUARE科技(BSQR)$ $Marin Software Inc.(MRIN)$ 雖然BSQR開局走得不好, 但成交量也有個50多萬. 所以我肯定不會去做空.因爲根據經驗, 50萬以上的成交量, 在小範圍內可以隨意上串下跳, 沒人攔得住. 低於100萬的話, 沒必要指望突破一些關鍵阻力位. 但是100萬以上的話, 股價基本就是想去哪就去哪. 50萬的話, 15%空間內自由舒展筋骨還是沒問題的.2 做空也是做情緒, 需要期望變失望, 需要大量的懊惱 後悔股價跌到2塊3的時候, 爲什麼不能去zhui追跌. 因爲彩票還沒開, 會漲會跌還不知道. 根據經驗, 多頭是很頭鐵的, 會不計較風險一路把股價頂上來. 做一些損人不利己的事情. 所以必需得等到股價答案揭曉了, 衝到2塊5毛附近, 崩盤了, 這時候多頭纔會開始後悔. 所以說, 做空必需衝着買家的情緒去, 得做空這種 由期望變失望的股價走勢. 要不然, 答案還沒揭曉的時候, 多頭的精神狀態還很飽滿, 會把股價頂上來, 逼出做空的止損單, 然後自己也被套住. 做這種損人不利己的事情. 3 需要一些大的崩盤線, 讓人來不及止損的那種一個大問題是什麼, 就是多頭是源源不絕的, 一波接着一波又一波, 永遠不怕虧損得買進來, 沒完沒了.所以就需要衝高的時候出現一些崩盤線, 讓上面的資金來不及止損, 從期待突破, 變成後悔自己爲什麼不早點離場. 二, 把後面的資","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/703cf4efefee715f5605dc5e3390f069","width":"688","height":"482"},{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3cfd21cb60d8572ff364cc6ea1e7e490","width":"688","height":"488"},{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0250d0b36f747830a2033dc42538f9c5","width":"688","height":"487"}],"top":1,"highlighted":2,"essential":2,"paper":2,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/153593954","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":0,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":6,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1325,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":122612372,"gmtCreate":1624616552196,"gmtModify":1703841799209,"author":{"id":"3576735162131152","authorId":"3576735162131152","name":"Daniel008","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f6ed2db39b02fffffcb0c1691f10ca77","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3576735162131152","idStr":"3576735162131152"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MRIN\">$Marin Software Inc.(MRIN)$</a>m","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MRIN\">$Marin Software Inc.(MRIN)$</a>m","text":"$Marin Software Inc.(MRIN)$m","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/122612372","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":918,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":344262565,"gmtCreate":1618410814257,"gmtModify":1704710456959,"author":{"id":"3576735162131152","authorId":"3576735162131152","name":"Daniel008","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f6ed2db39b02fffffcb0c1691f10ca77","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3576735162131152","idStr":"3576735162131152"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"m","listText":"m","text":"m","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/344262565","repostId":"1165236611","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1165236611","kind":"news","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"为用户提供金融资讯、行情、数据，旨在帮助投资者理解世界，做投资决策。","home_visible":1,"media_name":"老虎资讯综合","id":"102","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba"},"pubTimestamp":1618410115,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1165236611?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2021-04-14 22:21","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"Madoff and his Ponzi scheme: Lie to you because you are crazy","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1165236611","media":"老虎资讯综合","summary":"正如凡人皆有一死，暴雷是庞骗的宿命。","content":"<p>Today, sources revealed that Bernard Madoff, the principal culprit of the biggest Ponzi scheme in American history, died in prison. Madoff died at Federal Medical Center in Buttner, North Carolina, believed to be of natural causes, the report said. It is reported that Madoff's lawyer once filed a petition in court during the outbreak of COVID-19 pandemic in 2020, saying that he was suffering from end-stage renal failure and other chronic diseases, and asked for early release from prison, but the court rejected it.</p><p><b>Who is he?</b></p><p>Bernard Madoff, the former chairman of Nasdaq, is a legend in the history of world finance. He spent 20 years carefully planning the biggest fraud case in American history-\"Madoff Fraud Case\".</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f832f1b2348399e68ab854dd7ebeedd2\" tg-width=\"580\" tg-height=\"330\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>Madoff's means of committing fraud is a \"Ponzi scheme\" based on laminated investment. The operation method is to use hedge funds, use fake investment projects as bait, and promise a high rate of return of 10%-15% to attract huge sums of money from financial institutions, individual investors and even senior bankers, defrauding a total of about 65 billion dollars. The victims are many American politicians and celebrities.</p><p>In March 2009, Madoff pleaded guilty to 11 criminal charges including securities fraud, mail fraud, wire fraud, money laundering, falsifying financial statements and perjury.</p><p>On the evening of June 26, 2009, a U.S. federal district judge ordered the confiscation of $170 billion in property of Bernard Madoff, the former chairman of the board of directors of Nasdaq, who was suspected of defrauding a large number of investors. The prosecution believes that this penalty amount is equivalent to the amount of funds flowing into Madoff's main account of fraudulent activities.</p><p>On the same day, Madoff was sentenced to 150 years' imprisonment in new york for fraud, which is the maximum number of years allowed by American law.</p><p>Today, let's recall this story again.</p><p><b>1</b></p><p>In 1969, Nixon became president of the United States.<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/APOL\">Apollo</a>The 11th successfully landed on the moon,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AWI\">Armstrong</a>A big step on behalf of humanity. The U.S. government debt, the largest bureau in the world, had rolled to US $354 billion by 1969, with a Treasury Bond/GDP ratio of 35%.</p><p><b>However, in the end, Nixon's political legacy was a self-defense of \"I am not a liar\", and the Apollo moon landing was also regarded by conspiracy theorists as a shocking hoax.</b>This year, Elvis Presley hit the top spot of Billboard, called \"Suspicious Minds.\" There are these two words:</p><p>We can't build our dreams? On suspicious minds. This word reminds me of many \"mentors\" who have told us: If you want to get rich and realize your dreams, don't be suspicious.</p><p>That is, in this year, the securities company founded by 31-year-old Bernard Madoff (Bernard Madoff) made a market in the pink sheet market. His company relied on licking some OTC transactions that big companies despise, and also managed some small accounts of relatives and friends, and gained a firm foothold on Wall Street.</p><p>At that time, Wall Street was still the \"world of white shoes\"-\"white shoes\" were the standard of Ivy League graduates, and were later extended to elitism, which was synonymous with \"blue blood\". For example, top investment banks can be called white shoe companies. But the white shoe company ignored the white business. Therefore, those unlisted low-end OTC stocks will be divided up by some small companies with relatively poor backgrounds.</p><p>Madoff, who was born as a civilian, saw huge business opportunities from OTC. In order to compete with the market makers of the New York Stock Exchange (called specialist), his company, as a pioneer, applied an electronic trading system; Madoff foresaw the revolution of electronic trading system on OTC, which was the artificial intelligence dream of his era.</p><p><b>And this system later grew wildly, and finally grew into Nasdaq.</b></p><p>In addition to electronic, Lao Mai also figured out a deceptive business model, which still prevailed until I left the American securities industry. This game is called pay for order flow, which means that as a market maker, he will give a rebate (usually one or two cents per share) to the brokerage that routed the transaction order to him to attract traffic. In the end, he will charge the trader a huge spread (spread), enough to earn back the rebate. And this practice is completely legal.</p><p>Relying on electronic transactions + pay for order flow, Madoff is like a duck to water on Wall Street.</p><p>So the first half of Madoff is a typical successful Jewish rich generation, who started from scratch and became bigger and stronger. He likes to advocate that he is one of the founders of Nasdaq-Madoff's company was once the largest market maker of Nasdaq, and he was once the chairman of the board of directors of Nasdaq-which is not nonsense.</p><p>Until the great scam of the century was exposed, his life looked extremely glorious, and his expression looked extremely serene.<b>Lao Mai is quite complacent: After all, I am the father of Nasdaq.</b></p><p>2</p><p>Back in the summer of 1919, the founder of the \"Ponzi scheme\", 37-year-old Charles Ponzi, who had been released from prison for many years, decided to fire his boss and father-in-law and leave the grocery store where he worked. He rented a small office in Boston, review business models every day, and continued to toss his big hope of $1 million.</p><p>I believe that history is full of probability.</p><p>Our textbooks preach determinism. For example, the history teacher once taught us that the Second World War was bound to break out, which was the inevitable result of the tense world pattern. Modern historians can basically agree that this view is bullshit. After that, the Cold War situation became even more tense, but there was no third war. If you are familiar with the whole story of the Cuban Missile Crisis, you will burn a pillar of incense to probability. And if Hitler had succeeded in the art test that year, there would be a high probability that there would not be World War II in our parallel universe.</p><p>Ponzi's historical probability happened when one day he received a letter from Spain with an \"international postal reply coupon\".<b>This coupon, which you bought for thirty cents in Spain, can be exchanged for five cent stamps in the United States, and the exchange rate is locked up by international treaties. But the exchange rate between the Spanish currency peseta and the US dollar is not 6: 1. So you know, Ponzi thought of arbitrage.</b></p><p>Theoretically, if you exchange dollars for pesetas, then go to Spain to buy reply coupons, and then go back to the United States to exchange them for stamps, you can earn 10% without counting transportation expenses. This is Ponzi's idea of making a fortune on a whim. But if you really implement this idea, then it will be two. When you get the supply chain and logistics network done, the cost will also eat up 10% of the profit.</p><p><b>But it's still a convenient idea to peddle-straightforward and accessible to all ages.</b>Ponzi concluded that the worse the economy and the depreciation of the currency in countries, I can make higher profits by buying reply coupons, with the highest profit of 400%. The lines are full of economic logic and the concept of international trade. Of course these are vanilla not cherries. The point of the whole thing is that Ponzi promised that if investors invested their money in his stamp carry trade, then:</p><p>The investment period is 90 days, and you can get 50% of the income.</p><p>Later, Ponzi further escalated his promise:</p><p>45-day term, 50% yield.</p><p>The next step for Ponzi, a stamp arbitrage expert, is naturally to train financial planners and develop pyramids. He gave face-to-face and personally trained sales a 10% commission. Such a high commission naturally gave salespeople room to develop offline, so it was promoted layer by layer and Wechat business split. When the scorching summer subsides and autumn goes to winter, investors' cash flow begins to surround you and me like a tide of love.</p><p>Even the Boston Times published reports and trumpeted Ponzi's Dafa. Under Ponzi's post, there is a small advertisement of a bank: The bank's annual interest rate is 5%. Ironically, many years later, many people thought that the Boston Post finally exposed the Ponzi scheme, but it clearly helped others.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/50b226e4b04a46c18709eeb535b6984e\" tg-width=\"321\" tg-height=\"400\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>Boston Post, July 28, 1920. The title above is Ponzi Paid Investors Million Dollars, which means Ponzi has good liquidity</p><p>Ponzi later recalled: Investors were packed like traffic, four people in a row, from City Hall to School Street, then to the Nile Building, stairs and walkways, all the way to my office.<b>Everyone has only one thing in their eyes, and everyone looks like a money madness.</b></p><p>Ponzi's investors are blue-collar workers, priests, politicians, housewives, and famous families in Boston. On the brightest days, 75% of Boston police officers put money in. All these people brought a $20 million golden mountain to Ponzi.</p><p>Repeatedly, greedy human nature, like a repeater, keeps telling us how much people can abandon common sense and believe in an extremely absurd shortcut to make money. There is a saying in English called too good to be true-it looks so beautiful that it can't be true at all.</p><p><b>But no matter how retarded the scam seems, there are always people flocking to it. This is not necessarily a low IQ, but because:</b></p><p><b>MONEY MADNESS.</b></p><p><b>3</b></p><p>By the 1980s, Madoff, the father of Nasdaq, had achieved 5% of the trading volume of the New York Stock Exchange. The unique skill of market making alone can earn Madoff 100 million dollars a year.</p><p>So no one knows why Madoff started a cheating performance, including himself. Afterwards, he also said with tears in his eyes: I have too much money to spend. What do you think I am trying to do? The most extreme disguise of deception is that even the swindlers themselves can't find their motives for doing evil, so the leeks naturally can't find the north.</p><p>But no matter what the motivation is, he didn't satisfy a good hand of \"top market maker\", \"electronic trading pioneer\" and \"Nasdaq chairman\" anyway. At a node where he could win life, he was still obsessed with playing cards constantly, even if it was cheating.</p><p><b>Nor does anyone know when Madoff started his scam.</b>He confessed it was around 1991, but his account manager came out and testified that it could be traced back to 1970. At first, Madoff only accepted money from his small circle of relatives and friends; Later, I received some recommended charitable funds; Later, some large investment institutions were recruited, including banks and hedge funds around the world.</p><p>He almost only accepts money for kneeling and is extremely picky about eating. After breaking into the Palm Beach Club, where Jewish bosses gather together, his contacts are wider, from all corners of the country, reaching the sky. He also almost never sees investors, deliberately keeping a sense of mystery. If you don't have any background, Madoff most likely won't want your money. Because Madoff's fund was the number one hedge fund in the world in terms of asset management scale.</p><p>As for the fund's strategy, the only one Madoff has talked about is called Split Strike. That is to say, go long on a basket of blue-chip stocks, sell call options at the same time, and then use the exchanged premium to buy put options. This is a strategy that cuts off the ups and downs of the stock price. It can indeed reduce volatility, but it almost certainly cannot outperform the broader market in a bull market.</p><p>However, Madoff gave a 30-degree inclination across the bull and bear into the sky, with an annualized return of 10% and basically no fluctuation.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8c7cc65753789c678d0909059bf29536\" tg-width=\"997\" tg-height=\"714\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><b>Of course, Madoff in the real world has stopped trading for a long time. If you want a profit, he will dig a piece of someone else's principal for you.</b>In fact, all the money is in<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/JPM\">JPMorgan Chase</a>The bank savings account is blowing about your grandfather and I are fighting awesome.</p><p>To sum up, the upgraded version of Ponzi scheme, Mai's scheme, has the following characteristics:</p><p>1. Investment strategy and logic ratio<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/KO\">Coca-Cola</a>The secret recipe is still secret, and you can't ask; When you ask, he will ask you: What is the intention of exploring my trade secrets? 2. The rate of return is satisfactory and reasonable, fat and thin, one less point makes it difficult to cut leeks, and one more point scares old birds. 3. Maintain this rate of return for many years, steel straight men, the standard deviation is so small that people are frightening, ignore the market and reject pullback/retracement. 4. Elite Club, VVVIP. Are you looking for my Mr. Mai to invest? No, you're asking me to surrender. Mai Ye's aura is the biggest reason why this scam can finally be known as Guinness. Because, \"He seems like the kind of guy who can help you make a lot of money.\"<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e56957d4713bec5379b30dd05b7a2c70\" tg-width=\"995\" tg-height=\"715\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><b>4</b></p><p>However, Charles Ponzi's scam, in the final analysis, is quite mentally retarded, and he has no background aura, so he quickly attracts suspicion.</p><p>For example, to satisfy all investors' money into stamp arbitrage, you need to have a Titanic full of stamp reply coupons to and from<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/600558\">Atlantic</a>Between; For another example, there must be 160 million stamp reply coupons circulating in the market. But according to the data of the post office, there are only 27,000 copies in the whole market. In fact, all the reply coupons in Ponzi's entire company assets are worth a total of $61.</p><p>The Boston Post's investigation followed, questioning articles such as machine guns, and public opinion finally attracted the attention of prosecutors. With \"steel nerves\", Lao Pang decided to spread out the company's account books to cooperate with the investigation and stop accepting new funds. Negative reports and rumors that Ponzi was about to close their doors finally set off a run frenzy, and $2 million was withdrawn within three days.</p><p>Just as Ponzi was struggling for a run, the Post dug up the melon he stole to write checks that year, and took a picture of it in prison; Finally, the government auditor also announced the results: Ponzi's book deficit was $7 million. Lao Pang was finally arrested, smiling at that time.</p><p><b>In contrast, it is not inevitable that Madoff's scam can be exposed in his lifetime.</b>If you are the largest hedge fund in the world, and at the same time you are a Ponzi scheme, you are actually quite safe. Although you will definitely be exposed in the end, it is hard to say whether it will be exposed in your lifetime, because the amount of funds is too large and the reinvestment rate of investors is too high, so it is more than enough to pay sporadic income and withdraw capital.</p><p>Delaying a problem to a certain level is actually solving it.</p><p>Madoff's performance is just like watching a basketball game and finding a buddy who shoots 90% of three-pointers. Your first reaction should be that there is a fraud in the lying trough. So it's not that no one has investigated Madoff. In fact, the investigation of Madoff's fund and its feeder fund (sub-fund) has not stopped since 1992, in 1999, 2000, 2004, 2005, and 2006, but the SEC disagrees. With the SEC as a pig opponent, Madoff is quite stable.</p><p>Khrushchev once said: Berlin is the testicle of the West. Every time I want Westerners to scream, I pinch Berlin. Similarly, if you want to dampen the self-esteem of the SEC, then go to it and talk to Madoff, who is the egg of the SEC.</p><p>But Mai Ye finally got away before his death, because the once-in-a-century financial crisis in 2008 came unexpectedly. In the era of liquidity panic, everyone is in danger. By December, investors demanded to withdraw $7 billion, but at this time, Madoff had less than 300 million left in his bank account.</p><p>Finally, Lao Mai, who was cornered, confessed to his two sons (later confirmed that he didn't know about the scam) that \"the whole thing was a huge scam\". Two filial and righteous sons turned their heads and immediately reported to the official. Soon Madoff was arrested, and he looked serene at that time. After all, he just unloaded a $65 billion psychological burden.</p><p><b>Madoff defended himself, saying: I also invested in good faith at the beginning, but my performance was poor. I felt that I couldn't be sorry for investors. As a result, I didn't expect to cheat out of the Guinness Book of Records, and I was forced to do nothing.</b>--This is also the reason why it is urgent for the asset management industry to \"remove the just-exchanged\". As soon as you just redeem it, you are the cost of capital, and other risky assets can't be played; Second, you just redeemed it. Obviously, you were a good family at first, but there are always times when you can't get out, and you will force you to become prostitute at this time.</p><p>Of course, swindlers of this level have some anti-social personalities more or less, and they are convinced and hope to be innocent in the end. Just like Nixon, even if he was completely exposed in the end, he had to add-\"I am not a liar\". After torturing his soul in prison, Madoff came to a conclusion: Well, in fact, I am a good person.</p><p>Old driver, are you driving or are you kidding?</p><p><b>5</b></p><p>Just as all mortals die, thunderstorms are Pang Zhi's fate.</p><p>In the end, it is nothing more than these scripts that explode Pang's cheat: 1. The player runs away; 2. The funds of the player are broken; 3. External drastic changes lead to shock in the player. Although I can assert that Pang Liao will explode in the end, I can't guess when it will explode, especially when the victimized little sheep are still re-investing. As mentioned above, without 2008, Madoff might not have hung up.</p><p><b>Therefore, it is a kind of luck for us to witness the explosion of a scam like Madoff in our lifetime.</b></p><p>In the final analysis, the center of the scam stage usually stands an extremely narcissist, who is an anti-social actor. As Ponzi himself said: This good show I showed the world is worth at least 15 million. He's right. Sometimes the enlightenment effect of a liar on the whole society is far-reaching than that of a bunch of thinkers.</p><p>In the hundred years since 1919, magnificent structural changes have taken place at the grand narrative level, but the selfishness and greed of people's hearts have remained unchanged forever, and the terribility lies in Money Maddness. As soon as you see the opportunity to make a fortune, you immediately have the illusion of \"going to work in such a situation. Don't talk about it in front of the opportunity\". So all kinds of scams and all kinds of bubbles were gathered crazily, and finally the thunderstorm ended.</p><p>As for how to see through the Ponzi scheme around us-whether the rate of return is high or low? Whether the manager is a little bastard or a big shot? In the case of Lao Pang and Lao Mai, we found that these were not reliable. Personally, I think the following two points deserve attention:</p><p>1. The ratio of income to volatility is very high, that is, the Sharpe ratio is too high, and the market is ignored. Because you are sharp and high, either high returns and low volatility, or low returns and no volatility, which are all red flags; 2. The investment strategy is black box and the investment target is unknown.<b>1 or 2, possibly Pang Cheat; And 1 and 2 are almost inevitably deceptions.</b></p><p>As far as Chinese people are concerned, although Madoff-level scams have not yet been revealed, they should not be too optimistic. I once heard a private equity tycoon say: I have never seen a country like us, where 1.4 billion people regard making money as their belief. He felt from the bottom of his heart that this country's obsession with wealth was so terrible that any bottom line could fall for wealth. The spread of P2P is an example.</p><p>How many assets in the entire industry have been Ponzitized? There is no one to answer this question. And how many people in the whole industry are still holding on to the crumbling snowball? Winter cannot be let pass, and the snow cannot melt, because once it melts, it will be an avalanche.</p><p>When we look at the century-old history of Ponzi schemes in the United States across the ocean-the small one is short-lived, the medium one can last for several years, and the largest one still looks as stable as Mount Tai. We told ourselves: Don't panic.</p><p>After all, delaying the problem to a certain level is actually solving the problem.</p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Madoff and his Ponzi scheme: Lie to you because you are crazy</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nMadoff and his Ponzi scheme: Lie to you because you are crazy\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/102\">\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">老虎资讯综合 </p>\n<p class=\"h-time smaller\">2021-04-14 22:21</p>\n</div>\n</a>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>Today, sources revealed that Bernard Madoff, the principal culprit of the biggest Ponzi scheme in American history, died in prison. Madoff died at Federal Medical Center in Buttner, North Carolina, believed to be of natural causes, the report said. It is reported that Madoff's lawyer once filed a petition in court during the outbreak of COVID-19 pandemic in 2020, saying that he was suffering from end-stage renal failure and other chronic diseases, and asked for early release from prison, but the court rejected it.</p><p><b>Who is he?</b></p><p>Bernard Madoff, the former chairman of Nasdaq, is a legend in the history of world finance. He spent 20 years carefully planning the biggest fraud case in American history-\"Madoff Fraud Case\".</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f832f1b2348399e68ab854dd7ebeedd2\" tg-width=\"580\" tg-height=\"330\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>Madoff's means of committing fraud is a \"Ponzi scheme\" based on laminated investment. The operation method is to use hedge funds, use fake investment projects as bait, and promise a high rate of return of 10%-15% to attract huge sums of money from financial institutions, individual investors and even senior bankers, defrauding a total of about 65 billion dollars. The victims are many American politicians and celebrities.</p><p>In March 2009, Madoff pleaded guilty to 11 criminal charges including securities fraud, mail fraud, wire fraud, money laundering, falsifying financial statements and perjury.</p><p>On the evening of June 26, 2009, a U.S. federal district judge ordered the confiscation of $170 billion in property of Bernard Madoff, the former chairman of the board of directors of Nasdaq, who was suspected of defrauding a large number of investors. The prosecution believes that this penalty amount is equivalent to the amount of funds flowing into Madoff's main account of fraudulent activities.</p><p>On the same day, Madoff was sentenced to 150 years' imprisonment in new york for fraud, which is the maximum number of years allowed by American law.</p><p>Today, let's recall this story again.</p><p><b>1</b></p><p>In 1969, Nixon became president of the United States.<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/APOL\">Apollo</a>The 11th successfully landed on the moon,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AWI\">Armstrong</a>A big step on behalf of humanity. The U.S. government debt, the largest bureau in the world, had rolled to US $354 billion by 1969, with a Treasury Bond/GDP ratio of 35%.</p><p><b>However, in the end, Nixon's political legacy was a self-defense of \"I am not a liar\", and the Apollo moon landing was also regarded by conspiracy theorists as a shocking hoax.</b>This year, Elvis Presley hit the top spot of Billboard, called \"Suspicious Minds.\" There are these two words:</p><p>We can't build our dreams? On suspicious minds. This word reminds me of many \"mentors\" who have told us: If you want to get rich and realize your dreams, don't be suspicious.</p><p>That is, in this year, the securities company founded by 31-year-old Bernard Madoff (Bernard Madoff) made a market in the pink sheet market. His company relied on licking some OTC transactions that big companies despise, and also managed some small accounts of relatives and friends, and gained a firm foothold on Wall Street.</p><p>At that time, Wall Street was still the \"world of white shoes\"-\"white shoes\" were the standard of Ivy League graduates, and were later extended to elitism, which was synonymous with \"blue blood\". For example, top investment banks can be called white shoe companies. But the white shoe company ignored the white business. Therefore, those unlisted low-end OTC stocks will be divided up by some small companies with relatively poor backgrounds.</p><p>Madoff, who was born as a civilian, saw huge business opportunities from OTC. In order to compete with the market makers of the New York Stock Exchange (called specialist), his company, as a pioneer, applied an electronic trading system; Madoff foresaw the revolution of electronic trading system on OTC, which was the artificial intelligence dream of his era.</p><p><b>And this system later grew wildly, and finally grew into Nasdaq.</b></p><p>In addition to electronic, Lao Mai also figured out a deceptive business model, which still prevailed until I left the American securities industry. This game is called pay for order flow, which means that as a market maker, he will give a rebate (usually one or two cents per share) to the brokerage that routed the transaction order to him to attract traffic. In the end, he will charge the trader a huge spread (spread), enough to earn back the rebate. And this practice is completely legal.</p><p>Relying on electronic transactions + pay for order flow, Madoff is like a duck to water on Wall Street.</p><p>So the first half of Madoff is a typical successful Jewish rich generation, who started from scratch and became bigger and stronger. He likes to advocate that he is one of the founders of Nasdaq-Madoff's company was once the largest market maker of Nasdaq, and he was once the chairman of the board of directors of Nasdaq-which is not nonsense.</p><p>Until the great scam of the century was exposed, his life looked extremely glorious, and his expression looked extremely serene.<b>Lao Mai is quite complacent: After all, I am the father of Nasdaq.</b></p><p>2</p><p>Back in the summer of 1919, the founder of the \"Ponzi scheme\", 37-year-old Charles Ponzi, who had been released from prison for many years, decided to fire his boss and father-in-law and leave the grocery store where he worked. He rented a small office in Boston, review business models every day, and continued to toss his big hope of $1 million.</p><p>I believe that history is full of probability.</p><p>Our textbooks preach determinism. For example, the history teacher once taught us that the Second World War was bound to break out, which was the inevitable result of the tense world pattern. Modern historians can basically agree that this view is bullshit. After that, the Cold War situation became even more tense, but there was no third war. If you are familiar with the whole story of the Cuban Missile Crisis, you will burn a pillar of incense to probability. And if Hitler had succeeded in the art test that year, there would be a high probability that there would not be World War II in our parallel universe.</p><p>Ponzi's historical probability happened when one day he received a letter from Spain with an \"international postal reply coupon\".<b>This coupon, which you bought for thirty cents in Spain, can be exchanged for five cent stamps in the United States, and the exchange rate is locked up by international treaties. But the exchange rate between the Spanish currency peseta and the US dollar is not 6: 1. So you know, Ponzi thought of arbitrage.</b></p><p>Theoretically, if you exchange dollars for pesetas, then go to Spain to buy reply coupons, and then go back to the United States to exchange them for stamps, you can earn 10% without counting transportation expenses. This is Ponzi's idea of making a fortune on a whim. But if you really implement this idea, then it will be two. When you get the supply chain and logistics network done, the cost will also eat up 10% of the profit.</p><p><b>But it's still a convenient idea to peddle-straightforward and accessible to all ages.</b>Ponzi concluded that the worse the economy and the depreciation of the currency in countries, I can make higher profits by buying reply coupons, with the highest profit of 400%. The lines are full of economic logic and the concept of international trade. Of course these are vanilla not cherries. The point of the whole thing is that Ponzi promised that if investors invested their money in his stamp carry trade, then:</p><p>The investment period is 90 days, and you can get 50% of the income.</p><p>Later, Ponzi further escalated his promise:</p><p>45-day term, 50% yield.</p><p>The next step for Ponzi, a stamp arbitrage expert, is naturally to train financial planners and develop pyramids. He gave face-to-face and personally trained sales a 10% commission. Such a high commission naturally gave salespeople room to develop offline, so it was promoted layer by layer and Wechat business split. When the scorching summer subsides and autumn goes to winter, investors' cash flow begins to surround you and me like a tide of love.</p><p>Even the Boston Times published reports and trumpeted Ponzi's Dafa. Under Ponzi's post, there is a small advertisement of a bank: The bank's annual interest rate is 5%. Ironically, many years later, many people thought that the Boston Post finally exposed the Ponzi scheme, but it clearly helped others.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/50b226e4b04a46c18709eeb535b6984e\" tg-width=\"321\" tg-height=\"400\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>Boston Post, July 28, 1920. The title above is Ponzi Paid Investors Million Dollars, which means Ponzi has good liquidity</p><p>Ponzi later recalled: Investors were packed like traffic, four people in a row, from City Hall to School Street, then to the Nile Building, stairs and walkways, all the way to my office.<b>Everyone has only one thing in their eyes, and everyone looks like a money madness.</b></p><p>Ponzi's investors are blue-collar workers, priests, politicians, housewives, and famous families in Boston. On the brightest days, 75% of Boston police officers put money in. All these people brought a $20 million golden mountain to Ponzi.</p><p>Repeatedly, greedy human nature, like a repeater, keeps telling us how much people can abandon common sense and believe in an extremely absurd shortcut to make money. There is a saying in English called too good to be true-it looks so beautiful that it can't be true at all.</p><p><b>But no matter how retarded the scam seems, there are always people flocking to it. This is not necessarily a low IQ, but because:</b></p><p><b>MONEY MADNESS.</b></p><p><b>3</b></p><p>By the 1980s, Madoff, the father of Nasdaq, had achieved 5% of the trading volume of the New York Stock Exchange. The unique skill of market making alone can earn Madoff 100 million dollars a year.</p><p>So no one knows why Madoff started a cheating performance, including himself. Afterwards, he also said with tears in his eyes: I have too much money to spend. What do you think I am trying to do? The most extreme disguise of deception is that even the swindlers themselves can't find their motives for doing evil, so the leeks naturally can't find the north.</p><p>But no matter what the motivation is, he didn't satisfy a good hand of \"top market maker\", \"electronic trading pioneer\" and \"Nasdaq chairman\" anyway. At a node where he could win life, he was still obsessed with playing cards constantly, even if it was cheating.</p><p><b>Nor does anyone know when Madoff started his scam.</b>He confessed it was around 1991, but his account manager came out and testified that it could be traced back to 1970. At first, Madoff only accepted money from his small circle of relatives and friends; Later, I received some recommended charitable funds; Later, some large investment institutions were recruited, including banks and hedge funds around the world.</p><p>He almost only accepts money for kneeling and is extremely picky about eating. After breaking into the Palm Beach Club, where Jewish bosses gather together, his contacts are wider, from all corners of the country, reaching the sky. He also almost never sees investors, deliberately keeping a sense of mystery. If you don't have any background, Madoff most likely won't want your money. Because Madoff's fund was the number one hedge fund in the world in terms of asset management scale.</p><p>As for the fund's strategy, the only one Madoff has talked about is called Split Strike. That is to say, go long on a basket of blue-chip stocks, sell call options at the same time, and then use the exchanged premium to buy put options. This is a strategy that cuts off the ups and downs of the stock price. It can indeed reduce volatility, but it almost certainly cannot outperform the broader market in a bull market.</p><p>However, Madoff gave a 30-degree inclination across the bull and bear into the sky, with an annualized return of 10% and basically no fluctuation.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8c7cc65753789c678d0909059bf29536\" tg-width=\"997\" tg-height=\"714\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><b>Of course, Madoff in the real world has stopped trading for a long time. If you want a profit, he will dig a piece of someone else's principal for you.</b>In fact, all the money is in<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/JPM\">JPMorgan Chase</a>The bank savings account is blowing about your grandfather and I are fighting awesome.</p><p>To sum up, the upgraded version of Ponzi scheme, Mai's scheme, has the following characteristics:</p><p>1. Investment strategy and logic ratio<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/KO\">Coca-Cola</a>The secret recipe is still secret, and you can't ask; When you ask, he will ask you: What is the intention of exploring my trade secrets? 2. The rate of return is satisfactory and reasonable, fat and thin, one less point makes it difficult to cut leeks, and one more point scares old birds. 3. Maintain this rate of return for many years, steel straight men, the standard deviation is so small that people are frightening, ignore the market and reject pullback/retracement. 4. Elite Club, VVVIP. Are you looking for my Mr. Mai to invest? No, you're asking me to surrender. Mai Ye's aura is the biggest reason why this scam can finally be known as Guinness. Because, \"He seems like the kind of guy who can help you make a lot of money.\"<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e56957d4713bec5379b30dd05b7a2c70\" tg-width=\"995\" tg-height=\"715\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><b>4</b></p><p>However, Charles Ponzi's scam, in the final analysis, is quite mentally retarded, and he has no background aura, so he quickly attracts suspicion.</p><p>For example, to satisfy all investors' money into stamp arbitrage, you need to have a Titanic full of stamp reply coupons to and from<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/600558\">Atlantic</a>Between; For another example, there must be 160 million stamp reply coupons circulating in the market. But according to the data of the post office, there are only 27,000 copies in the whole market. In fact, all the reply coupons in Ponzi's entire company assets are worth a total of $61.</p><p>The Boston Post's investigation followed, questioning articles such as machine guns, and public opinion finally attracted the attention of prosecutors. With \"steel nerves\", Lao Pang decided to spread out the company's account books to cooperate with the investigation and stop accepting new funds. Negative reports and rumors that Ponzi was about to close their doors finally set off a run frenzy, and $2 million was withdrawn within three days.</p><p>Just as Ponzi was struggling for a run, the Post dug up the melon he stole to write checks that year, and took a picture of it in prison; Finally, the government auditor also announced the results: Ponzi's book deficit was $7 million. Lao Pang was finally arrested, smiling at that time.</p><p><b>In contrast, it is not inevitable that Madoff's scam can be exposed in his lifetime.</b>If you are the largest hedge fund in the world, and at the same time you are a Ponzi scheme, you are actually quite safe. Although you will definitely be exposed in the end, it is hard to say whether it will be exposed in your lifetime, because the amount of funds is too large and the reinvestment rate of investors is too high, so it is more than enough to pay sporadic income and withdraw capital.</p><p>Delaying a problem to a certain level is actually solving it.</p><p>Madoff's performance is just like watching a basketball game and finding a buddy who shoots 90% of three-pointers. Your first reaction should be that there is a fraud in the lying trough. So it's not that no one has investigated Madoff. In fact, the investigation of Madoff's fund and its feeder fund (sub-fund) has not stopped since 1992, in 1999, 2000, 2004, 2005, and 2006, but the SEC disagrees. With the SEC as a pig opponent, Madoff is quite stable.</p><p>Khrushchev once said: Berlin is the testicle of the West. Every time I want Westerners to scream, I pinch Berlin. Similarly, if you want to dampen the self-esteem of the SEC, then go to it and talk to Madoff, who is the egg of the SEC.</p><p>But Mai Ye finally got away before his death, because the once-in-a-century financial crisis in 2008 came unexpectedly. In the era of liquidity panic, everyone is in danger. By December, investors demanded to withdraw $7 billion, but at this time, Madoff had less than 300 million left in his bank account.</p><p>Finally, Lao Mai, who was cornered, confessed to his two sons (later confirmed that he didn't know about the scam) that \"the whole thing was a huge scam\". Two filial and righteous sons turned their heads and immediately reported to the official. Soon Madoff was arrested, and he looked serene at that time. After all, he just unloaded a $65 billion psychological burden.</p><p><b>Madoff defended himself, saying: I also invested in good faith at the beginning, but my performance was poor. I felt that I couldn't be sorry for investors. As a result, I didn't expect to cheat out of the Guinness Book of Records, and I was forced to do nothing.</b>--This is also the reason why it is urgent for the asset management industry to \"remove the just-exchanged\". As soon as you just redeem it, you are the cost of capital, and other risky assets can't be played; Second, you just redeemed it. Obviously, you were a good family at first, but there are always times when you can't get out, and you will force you to become prostitute at this time.</p><p>Of course, swindlers of this level have some anti-social personalities more or less, and they are convinced and hope to be innocent in the end. Just like Nixon, even if he was completely exposed in the end, he had to add-\"I am not a liar\". After torturing his soul in prison, Madoff came to a conclusion: Well, in fact, I am a good person.</p><p>Old driver, are you driving or are you kidding?</p><p><b>5</b></p><p>Just as all mortals die, thunderstorms are Pang Zhi's fate.</p><p>In the end, it is nothing more than these scripts that explode Pang's cheat: 1. The player runs away; 2. The funds of the player are broken; 3. External drastic changes lead to shock in the player. Although I can assert that Pang Liao will explode in the end, I can't guess when it will explode, especially when the victimized little sheep are still re-investing. As mentioned above, without 2008, Madoff might not have hung up.</p><p><b>Therefore, it is a kind of luck for us to witness the explosion of a scam like Madoff in our lifetime.</b></p><p>In the final analysis, the center of the scam stage usually stands an extremely narcissist, who is an anti-social actor. As Ponzi himself said: This good show I showed the world is worth at least 15 million. He's right. Sometimes the enlightenment effect of a liar on the whole society is far-reaching than that of a bunch of thinkers.</p><p>In the hundred years since 1919, magnificent structural changes have taken place at the grand narrative level, but the selfishness and greed of people's hearts have remained unchanged forever, and the terribility lies in Money Maddness. As soon as you see the opportunity to make a fortune, you immediately have the illusion of \"going to work in such a situation. Don't talk about it in front of the opportunity\". So all kinds of scams and all kinds of bubbles were gathered crazily, and finally the thunderstorm ended.</p><p>As for how to see through the Ponzi scheme around us-whether the rate of return is high or low? Whether the manager is a little bastard or a big shot? In the case of Lao Pang and Lao Mai, we found that these were not reliable. Personally, I think the following two points deserve attention:</p><p>1. The ratio of income to volatility is very high, that is, the Sharpe ratio is too high, and the market is ignored. Because you are sharp and high, either high returns and low volatility, or low returns and no volatility, which are all red flags; 2. The investment strategy is black box and the investment target is unknown.<b>1 or 2, possibly Pang Cheat; And 1 and 2 are almost inevitably deceptions.</b></p><p>As far as Chinese people are concerned, although Madoff-level scams have not yet been revealed, they should not be too optimistic. I once heard a private equity tycoon say: I have never seen a country like us, where 1.4 billion people regard making money as their belief. He felt from the bottom of his heart that this country's obsession with wealth was so terrible that any bottom line could fall for wealth. The spread of P2P is an example.</p><p>How many assets in the entire industry have been Ponzitized? There is no one to answer this question. And how many people in the whole industry are still holding on to the crumbling snowball? Winter cannot be let pass, and the snow cannot melt, because once it melts, it will be an avalanche.</p><p>When we look at the century-old history of Ponzi schemes in the United States across the ocean-the small one is short-lived, the medium one can last for several years, and the largest one still looks as stable as Mount Tai. We told ourselves: Don't panic.</p><p>After all, delaying the problem to a certain level is actually solving the problem.</p>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/30a84f32ce98d6e11b52b474b7941db4","relate_stocks":{".DJI":"道琼斯"},"is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1165236611","content_text":"今天，消息人士透露，美国史上最大庞氏骗局的主犯伯纳德·麦道夫在狱中死亡。报道称，麦道夫死于北卡罗来纳州巴特纳的联邦医疗中心，据信为自然死亡。据悉，麦道夫的律师曾经在2020年新冠疫情爆发期间入禀法院，指他患上末期肾衰竭及其他慢性疾病，要求提早出狱，但遭到法院驳回。他是谁？伯纳德·麦道夫，前纳斯达克主席，堪称世界金融史上的传奇人物，其花费了长达20年的时间，精心策划了美国有史以来最大的诈骗案—“麦道夫诈骗案”。麦道夫实施诈骗的手段是基于层压式投资的“庞氏骗局”，操作方式是利用对冲基金，以虚设投资项目为诱饵，通过承诺10%-15%的高收益率，吸引了金融机构、个人投资者甚至资深银行家们的巨额资金，骗取共约650亿美元资金，受害者不乏美国政要与明星。2009年3月，麦道夫受到包括证券欺诈、邮件欺诈、电讯欺诈、洗钱、伪造财务报表、作伪证在内的11项刑事指控认罪。2009年6月26日晚，美国联邦地区法官下令，没收涉嫌欺诈大量投资者的纳斯达克前董事会主席伯纳德·麦道夫1700亿美元财产。检方认为，这一处罚数目与流入麦道夫欺诈活动主要账户的资金数额相当。当日，麦道夫因诈骗案在纽约被判处150年监禁，是美国法律所允许的最高年限。今天，让我们再次回味一下这个故事。11969年，尼克松就任美国总统，阿波罗11号成功登月，阿姆斯特朗代表人类走了一个大步。而天下第一庞局美国政府债务，到1969年已经滚到3540亿美元，国债/GDP 比35%。不过最后尼克松的政治遗产是一句“我不是骗子”的自辩，而阿波罗登月也被阴谋论者认为是一个惊天骗局。这一年猫王有首金曲冲上了Billboard榜首，叫《狐疑的心》（Suspicious Minds）。有这么两句词：We can't build our dreams?On suspicious minds.这词让我想起许多“导师”都曾告诉过我们：要暴富，要圆梦，就不要疑神疑鬼。也就是这一年，31岁的伯纳德·麦道夫（Bernard Madoff）创始的证券公司在粉单市场做市，他的公司依靠舔舐一些大公司看不上的OTC交易，以及兼为打理亲戚朋友的一些小账户，在华尔街站稳了脚跟。彼时的华尔街还是“白鞋天下”—— “白鞋”（white shoe）当年乃常青藤毕业生的标配，后引申为精英主义，与“蓝血”同义。比如顶尖投行就可以被称为白鞋公司。但白鞋公司不理小白业务。于是那些未挂牌的低端的OTC股票，就会被一些出身相对贫贱的小公司瓜分掉。平民出身的麦道夫从OTC里看出了巨大商机。为了与纽交所的做市商（称为专家specialist）分庭抗礼，他的公司作为先驱，应用了一套电子交易系统；麦道夫预见到电子化交易系统在OTC上的革命，这是他那个年代的人工智能梦想。而这套系统后来野蛮生长，最后长成了纳斯达克。除了电子化以外，老麦还摸索出一套诡诈的商业模式，此模式一直到我离开美国证券业时仍然盛行。这套玩法叫pay for order flow，意思是作为做市商，他会给将交易订单route到他手上成交的券商一笔回扣（一般是一股一两分钱），来吸引流量。他最后会向交易者收取一个极大的spread（价差），足以赚回回扣。而这种做法完全合法。靠着电子交易+pay for order flow，麦道夫在华尔街如鱼得水。所以麦道夫的前半段是一个典型成功的犹太人富一代，白手起家，做大做强。他喜欢鼓吹自己是纳斯达克的奠基人之一 —— 麦道夫的公司一度是纳斯达克最大的做市商，他也曾经是纳斯达克的董事会主席—— 也不算是胡说八道。一直到世纪大骗局被揭穿之前 ，他的人生看起来都无比光辉，他的神态看起来都无比安详。老麦颇为自得：毕竟我是纳斯达克，的爸爸呀。2时间重新回到1919年夏天，“庞氏骗局”的创始人——出狱多年的37岁查尔斯·庞兹决定开除自己的老板兼岳父，离开他打工的杂货铺。他在波士顿租了个小办公室，天天复盘各种商业模式，继续折腾他那个100万美元的大希冀。我相信历史充满或然性。我们的教科书宣扬决定论，比如历史老师曾教我们，第二次世界大战必然爆发，这是剑拔弩张的世界格局的必然结果。现代历史学家基本上能同意这种观点算是扯淡。之后冷战形势更剑拔弩张，但并无三战到来。如果你熟知古巴导弹危机始末，就会给或然性烧一柱高香。而如果希特勒当年艺考成功，大概率我们这个平行宇宙里就不会有二战。而庞兹的历史或然性，发生在某天他收到一封来自西班牙的信，而信里有一张“国际邮政回信券” （international postal reply coupon）。这张券，你在西班牙花三毛钱购得，在美国可以换5美分的邮票，兑换率由国际条约锁死。但西班牙货币比塞塔和美元并不是6：1的汇率。所以你懂的，庞兹想到了套利。理论上，你拿美元换比塞塔，然后跑去西班牙买回信券，再回到美国换成邮票，不算交通费，可赚10%。这就是庞兹突发奇想的发财点子。但如果你真的去执行这个点子那就二了，等你搞定了供应链和物流网，成本也吃掉了10%的利润。但这仍然是一个方便兜售的点子——直白易懂，老少皆宜。庞兹得出结论，经济越差货币越贬值的国家，我去买回信券就能套到更高的利润，最高利润可达400%。字里行间充满了经济学逻辑与国贸概念。当然这些都是香草不是樱桃，整件事的重点是，庞兹承诺，如果投资者将钱投资于他的邮票套利交易，那么：投资期限90天，能获得50%的收益。后来庞兹进一步升级了他的承诺：45天期限，50%收益。邮票套利专家庞兹的下一步，自然是培训理财师，发展金字塔。他给面授机宜、亲自培训的销售10%提成，如此高的佣金自然又给销售们发展下线的空间，于是层层推进、微商裂变。到了酷暑散退、秋去冬来之际，投资者的现金流开始爱如潮水它将你我包围。甚至《波士顿时报》都刊登报告，大肆宣扬庞氏大法。在庞氏吹文的下面，有一小块某银行的广告：本银行年息5%。讽刺的是多年以后，很多人认为是《波士顿邮报》最后拆穿了庞氏骗局，但其明明曾助纣为虐。1920年7月28日《波士顿邮报》。上面的标题是《庞兹向投资者支付了百万美元》，意思是庞兹流动性良好庞兹后来回忆：投资者如车水马龙，四人一排，从市政厅，排到了学校街，接着排到了尼罗河大楼，楼梯上、走道里，水泄不通，一直排到我的办公室。每个人眼睛里都只有一样东西，每个人看起来都像一个钱疯子（money madness）。庞兹的投资者三教九流，蓝领、牧师、政客、家庭主妇、波士顿的名门望族。在最高光的日子里，75%的波士顿警察投了钱进来。所有这些人给庞氏带来了一座2000万美元的金山。屡次三番，贪婪的人性就像一个复读机一样不断地告诉我们——人是多么能弃常识于不顾，去相信一条无比荒诞的生财捷径。英文里有一个说法叫 too good to be true —— 看起来实在太美，以至于根本不可能是真事。但无论看起来多弱智的骗局，也总有人趋之若鹜。这并不一定是智商低，而是因为：MONEY MADNESS。3到了八十年代，纳斯达克的爸爸麦道夫，公司已经做到了纽交所5%的交易量。光做市这一个绝活，就能为麦道夫每年挣到一个亿美元。所以没人知道麦道夫，为什么要开始瞒天过海的表演，包括他自己。事后他也泪眼婆娑地表示：我的钱已经多到花不完，你说我这是图啥。骗术最极致的伪装，就是连骗子自己都找不出自己为非作歹的动机，那韭菜们自然就更找不着北。但无论出于什么动机，反正他是没有满足一手“顶尖做市商”、“电子交易先驱”、“纳斯达克主席”的好牌，在一个能够躺赢人生的节点上，他依然醉心于不停出牌，哪怕是出老千。同样也没人知道麦道夫到底是何时开始他的骗局。他坦白是在1991年左右，但他的账户经理出来指证说最早可以追溯到1970年。一开始麦道夫只收他亲友小圈子的钱；再后来收一些经引荐的慈善基金； 再后来收一些大型投资机构，包括全球各地的银行与对冲基金。他几乎只收跪着的钱，且极为挑食。打入犹太大佬扎堆的棕榈滩俱乐部后，其人脉触角更广，五湖四海，直达天际。他也几乎从来不见投资者，刻意保持神秘感。你要是没点背景，麦道夫大概率不要你的钱。因为按资产管理规模，麦道夫的基金就是当年世界第一的对冲基金。至于基金的策略，麦道夫唯一谈过的，叫做Split Strike。也就是做多一篮子蓝筹股，同时卖出看涨期权，再用换得的权利金买入看跌期权。这是一个自绝股价上下空间的策略，确实可以降低波动，但牛市里几乎肯定跑不过大盘。然而，麦道夫给出的是穿越牛熊的倾角三十度直插云霄，年化收益10%，波动基本没有。当然，真实世界的麦道夫很早就已经不操盘了，你要收益，他就去别人的本金里挖一块给你 。事实上，钱都是在摩根大通银行的储蓄账户里吹着你爷爷我正在意念盘战斗的牛逼。总结一下，庞氏骗局的升级版麦氏骗局，有以下几个特点：1. 投资策略与逻辑比可口可乐的秘方还隐秘，且不能问；你一问，他还要反问你：探我商业机密是何居心哇？2. 回报率合意且合理，肥瘦相宜，少一分难割韭菜，多一分吓飞老鸟。3. 多年保持此收益率，钢铁直男，标准差小到让人害怕，无视市场，拒绝回撤。4. 精英俱乐部，VVVIP。你找我麦爷投资？不，你是找我麦爷投诚。麦爷的光环是这场骗局能够最终名刻吉尼斯的最大原因。 因为，“他看起来就是那种能帮你赚大钱的人。”4但是查尔斯·庞兹的骗局，说到底还是比较弱智的，小瘪三出身的他也没有背景光环，所以很快招致狐疑的心。比如，要满足所有投资人的钱进入邮票套利，你需要有一艘泰坦尼克号装满邮票回信券，往返于大西洋之间；再比如，市场上必须要有1.6亿张邮票回信券流通。但根据邮局的数据，整个市场上一共就只有27000张。事实上庞氏整个公司资产里所有的回信券，一共就值61美元。《波士顿邮报》的调查如影随形，质疑文章如机关枪，舆情也最终招致了检察官的关注。老庞凭“钢铁般的神经”，决定摊开公司账簿配合调查，并停止接受新的资金。负面报道与庞兹即将关门的传闻，终于掀起挤兑狂潮，三天内200万美元被提走。正在庞兹为挤兑疲于奔命之际，《邮报》挖出他当年盗开支票的瓜，并配图入监照；最后政府审计师也公布了结果：庞兹公司的账面赤字为700万美元。老庞终于被拘捕，其时面带微笑。相比而言，麦道夫的骗局能在他有生之年被揭穿，其实并非必然 。如果你是世界第一规模对冲基金，而同时你又是一个庞氏骗局，其实你还蛮安全的。虽然最终你一定败露，但是否在你有生之年败露并不好说，因为资金量太大而投资者复投率太高，支付零星的收益和撤资绰绰有余。拖延问题到一定境界，其实就是解决问题。麦道夫的业绩，就像你看篮球赛发现有个哥们投三分球命中率 90%，你第一反应就应该是卧槽有诈。所以不是没有人调查过麦道夫，事实上从1992年起对麦道夫的基金以及其feeder fund（子基金）的调查就没断过，1999、2000、2004、2005、2006年年都有，但SEC不以为然。有SEC这个猪对手在，所以麦道夫还蛮稳的。赫鲁晓夫曾说：柏林是西方的睾丸，每次我想让西方人惨叫，我就去捏柏林。同理如果你想要去挫伤SEC的自尊，那就去找它谈谈麦道夫，麦道夫就是SEC的蛋。但麦爷最后还是在辞世之前玩脱了，因为百年不遇的2008年金融危机不期而至。流动性恐慌的时代人人自危，到了十二月，投资者要求抽资70亿美元，而此时麦道夫的银行账户里只剩不足三亿。最后走投无路的老麦向两个儿子（后证实对骗局居然不知情）坦白，“整件事就是一场巨大的骗局”。两个孝顺而富有正义感的儿子转头立即报官，很快麦道夫被抓，其时神态安详。毕竟，他刚卸下了一个650亿美元的心理负担。麦道夫自辩说：我一开始也是诚信投资，无奈业绩不佳，觉得不能对不起投资人啊，结果也没想到骗出了吉尼斯记录，我也是被迫无奈。—— 这也是为啥资管业“去除刚兑”刻不容缓的原因。一来你刚兑，你就是cost of capital，那别的风险资产还玩不玩了；二来你刚兑，明明一开始你是良家，但是你总有刚不出的时候，此时就会逼良为娼。当然这种级别的骗子，或多或少都有一些反社会人格，骗到最后自己也深信不疑，顾盼无辜。就像尼克松即使到最后彻底败露，还要补一句——“我不是一个骗子”。麦道夫在狱中拷问完自己的灵魂之后得到一个结论：嗯，其实我是个好人。老司机你这是在开车呢还是在开玩笑呢。5正如凡人皆有一死，暴雷是庞骗的宿命。最终点爆庞骗的也无非就是这么几个剧本： 1. 做局者跑路；2. 做局者资金断裂；3. 外部剧变导致做局者休克。虽然我能断言庞骗最后一定会爆，但并不能猜到何时会爆，尤其当受害小绵羊们还在不断复投。正如上文所言，如果没2008，麦道夫也未必挂。所以有生之年我们能见证像麦道夫这种级别的庞骗爆掉，是一种吃瓜的幸运。说到底，骗局舞台的中心一般都站着一个极度自恋狂，都是反社会的演员。如庞兹自己所言：我给这个世界看的这场好戏，至少值1500万。他说的没错。有时候一个骗子对整个社会的启蒙作用，比一堆思想家的影响都深远。从1919年以来的一百年，宏大叙事层面发生了波澜壮阔的结构变革，但人心的自私与贪婪亘古不变，而可怕就可怕在 Money Maddness，一见发财机会，马上产生一种 “上班在这样的机会面前就不要谈了”的错觉。所以疯狂扎堆各种骗局与各种泡沫，最后暴雷了事。至于如何识破我们身边的庞氏骗局—— 看收益率是高是低？看管理人是小瘪三还是大人物？在老庞与老麦的案例里，我们发现这些都不太靠谱。我个人认为以下两点值得关注：1. 收益与波动之比很高，也就是夏普率过高，且无视市场。因为你夏普高，要么是高收益低波动，要么是低收益无波动，都是red flag；2. 投资策略黑箱，投资标的不明。1或2，可能是庞骗；而1且2，几乎必然是庞骗。而对国人而言，虽然尚未出现麦道夫级别的骗局败露，但不可过于乐观 。曾听某私募大佬说过：我从没见过一个国家像我们一样，十四亿人把赚钱当信仰。他是发自肺腑地觉得这个国家对财富的执念太可怕，为求财什么底线都能沦陷。P2P泛滥成灾就是一个例证。整个行业里有多少资产已经庞氏化？这个问题无人可答。而整个行业里又有多少人仍在死撑摇摇欲坠的大雪球，不能让冬天过去，雪不能化，因为一化就是雪崩。而当我们隔洋远观美利坚庞氏骗局的百年历史 —— 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這裏呢，我不會對每一家公司去做一個詳細的介紹，只會列出其公司名稱，股票代碼，以及其所屬行業。CVX 雪弗龍：能源化工CSCO 思科：通信設備CRM salesforce：應用軟件AMGN 安進：生物科技V VISA：數據處理與外包MMM 3M：工業KO 可口可樂：飲料WMT 沃爾瑪：超市BA 波音：航天航空PBF PBF energy：石油與天然氣WFC 富國銀行：綜合性銀行CCL 嘉年華郵輪：旅遊與郵輪CPE 卡隆石油：石油與天然氣OXY 西方石油：石油與天然氣IVR 景順資本：房地產信託APA 阿帕契：石油與天然氣M 梅西百貨：百貨商店AAL 美國航空：航空UAL 聯合大陸航空：航空LMT 洛克希德馬丁：航空與國防LYFT lyft：陸運PTEN：石油與天然氣NCLHG 挪威郵輪：旅遊與郵輪HP ：石油與天然氣LEG 禮恩派：家庭裝飾品DHI 霍頓房屋：住宅建築AON 怡安保險：保險經紀商PVH：衣服服飾H 凱悅酒店：酒店與旅遊MAC 馬塞裏奇：房地產OMC 宏盟集團：廣告AIG 美國國際集團：多元化保險那麼以上就是從我的自選裏挑出的我認爲比較好的低價股，都是一些市值比較大，價值比較高，抗風險能力比較強的。其實如果去找，有非常多的股票還未回到去年三月份暴跌以前的股價。我這篇帖子也算是拋磚引玉，在科技股普遍高估值高風險的情況下，我們是否應該把眼光放到這些受疫情影響的低估股呢？如果各位朋友的自選裏也有這樣類型的寶藏股票，也可以分享出來，讓大家一起賺錢[財迷] ","listText":"又到了週末，本來想的寫一篇AI的一家公司，但看到本週大大小小的科技股都殺了很多的估值，就準備簡單彙總一下一些受疫情影響的低估股。三大股指裏道瓊斯指數其實並沒有怎麼下跌，是不是這兩週完成了一個資金的板塊移動？1.9萬億的行情會不會在道指展開？是時候提前佈局這些股票了[開心] 這裏呢，我不會對每一家公司去做一個詳細的介紹，只會列出其公司名稱，股票代碼，以及其所屬行業。CVX 雪弗龍：能源化工CSCO 思科：通信設備CRM salesforce：應用軟件AMGN 安進：生物科技V VISA：數據處理與外包MMM 3M：工業KO 可口可樂：飲料WMT 沃爾瑪：超市BA 波音：航天航空PBF PBF energy：石油與天然氣WFC 富國銀行：綜合性銀行CCL 嘉年華郵輪：旅遊與郵輪CPE 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把後面的資","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/703cf4efefee715f5605dc5e3390f069","width":"688","height":"482"},{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3cfd21cb60d8572ff364cc6ea1e7e490","width":"688","height":"488"},{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0250d0b36f747830a2033dc42538f9c5","width":"688","height":"487"}],"top":1,"highlighted":2,"essential":2,"paper":2,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/153593954","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":0,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":6,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1325,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":344262565,"gmtCreate":1618410814257,"gmtModify":1704710456959,"author":{"id":"3576735162131152","authorId":"3576735162131152","name":"Daniel008","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f6ed2db39b02fffffcb0c1691f10ca77","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3576735162131152","idStr":"3576735162131152"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"m","listText":"m","text":"m","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/344262565","repostId":"1165236611","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1165236611","kind":"news","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"为用户提供金融资讯、行情、数据，旨在帮助投资者理解世界，做投资决策。","home_visible":1,"media_name":"老虎资讯综合","id":"102","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba"},"pubTimestamp":1618410115,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1165236611?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2021-04-14 22:21","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"Madoff and his Ponzi scheme: Lie to you because you are crazy","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1165236611","media":"老虎资讯综合","summary":"正如凡人皆有一死，暴雷是庞骗的宿命。","content":"<p>Today, sources revealed that Bernard Madoff, the principal culprit of the biggest Ponzi scheme in American history, died in prison. Madoff died at Federal Medical Center in Buttner, North Carolina, believed to be of natural causes, the report said. It is reported that Madoff's lawyer once filed a petition in court during the outbreak of COVID-19 pandemic in 2020, saying that he was suffering from end-stage renal failure and other chronic diseases, and asked for early release from prison, but the court rejected it.</p><p><b>Who is he?</b></p><p>Bernard Madoff, the former chairman of Nasdaq, is a legend in the history of world finance. He spent 20 years carefully planning the biggest fraud case in American history-\"Madoff Fraud Case\".</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f832f1b2348399e68ab854dd7ebeedd2\" tg-width=\"580\" tg-height=\"330\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>Madoff's means of committing fraud is a \"Ponzi scheme\" based on laminated investment. The operation method is to use hedge funds, use fake investment projects as bait, and promise a high rate of return of 10%-15% to attract huge sums of money from financial institutions, individual investors and even senior bankers, defrauding a total of about 65 billion dollars. The victims are many American politicians and celebrities.</p><p>In March 2009, Madoff pleaded guilty to 11 criminal charges including securities fraud, mail fraud, wire fraud, money laundering, falsifying financial statements and perjury.</p><p>On the evening of June 26, 2009, a U.S. federal district judge ordered the confiscation of $170 billion in property of Bernard Madoff, the former chairman of the board of directors of Nasdaq, who was suspected of defrauding a large number of investors. The prosecution believes that this penalty amount is equivalent to the amount of funds flowing into Madoff's main account of fraudulent activities.</p><p>On the same day, Madoff was sentenced to 150 years' imprisonment in new york for fraud, which is the maximum number of years allowed by American law.</p><p>Today, let's recall this story again.</p><p><b>1</b></p><p>In 1969, Nixon became president of the United States.<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/APOL\">Apollo</a>The 11th successfully landed on the moon,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AWI\">Armstrong</a>A big step on behalf of humanity. The U.S. government debt, the largest bureau in the world, had rolled to US $354 billion by 1969, with a Treasury Bond/GDP ratio of 35%.</p><p><b>However, in the end, Nixon's political legacy was a self-defense of \"I am not a liar\", and the Apollo moon landing was also regarded by conspiracy theorists as a shocking hoax.</b>This year, Elvis Presley hit the top spot of Billboard, called \"Suspicious Minds.\" There are these two words:</p><p>We can't build our dreams? On suspicious minds. This word reminds me of many \"mentors\" who have told us: If you want to get rich and realize your dreams, don't be suspicious.</p><p>That is, in this year, the securities company founded by 31-year-old Bernard Madoff (Bernard Madoff) made a market in the pink sheet market. His company relied on licking some OTC transactions that big companies despise, and also managed some small accounts of relatives and friends, and gained a firm foothold on Wall Street.</p><p>At that time, Wall Street was still the \"world of white shoes\"-\"white shoes\" were the standard of Ivy League graduates, and were later extended to elitism, which was synonymous with \"blue blood\". For example, top investment banks can be called white shoe companies. But the white shoe company ignored the white business. Therefore, those unlisted low-end OTC stocks will be divided up by some small companies with relatively poor backgrounds.</p><p>Madoff, who was born as a civilian, saw huge business opportunities from OTC. In order to compete with the market makers of the New York Stock Exchange (called specialist), his company, as a pioneer, applied an electronic trading system; Madoff foresaw the revolution of electronic trading system on OTC, which was the artificial intelligence dream of his era.</p><p><b>And this system later grew wildly, and finally grew into Nasdaq.</b></p><p>In addition to electronic, Lao Mai also figured out a deceptive business model, which still prevailed until I left the American securities industry. This game is called pay for order flow, which means that as a market maker, he will give a rebate (usually one or two cents per share) to the brokerage that routed the transaction order to him to attract traffic. In the end, he will charge the trader a huge spread (spread), enough to earn back the rebate. And this practice is completely legal.</p><p>Relying on electronic transactions + pay for order flow, Madoff is like a duck to water on Wall Street.</p><p>So the first half of Madoff is a typical successful Jewish rich generation, who started from scratch and became bigger and stronger. He likes to advocate that he is one of the founders of Nasdaq-Madoff's company was once the largest market maker of Nasdaq, and he was once the chairman of the board of directors of Nasdaq-which is not nonsense.</p><p>Until the great scam of the century was exposed, his life looked extremely glorious, and his expression looked extremely serene.<b>Lao Mai is quite complacent: After all, I am the father of Nasdaq.</b></p><p>2</p><p>Back in the summer of 1919, the founder of the \"Ponzi scheme\", 37-year-old Charles Ponzi, who had been released from prison for many years, decided to fire his boss and father-in-law and leave the grocery store where he worked. He rented a small office in Boston, review business models every day, and continued to toss his big hope of $1 million.</p><p>I believe that history is full of probability.</p><p>Our textbooks preach determinism. For example, the history teacher once taught us that the Second World War was bound to break out, which was the inevitable result of the tense world pattern. Modern historians can basically agree that this view is bullshit. After that, the Cold War situation became even more tense, but there was no third war. If you are familiar with the whole story of the Cuban Missile Crisis, you will burn a pillar of incense to probability. And if Hitler had succeeded in the art test that year, there would be a high probability that there would not be World War II in our parallel universe.</p><p>Ponzi's historical probability happened when one day he received a letter from Spain with an \"international postal reply coupon\".<b>This coupon, which you bought for thirty cents in Spain, can be exchanged for five cent stamps in the United States, and the exchange rate is locked up by international treaties. But the exchange rate between the Spanish currency peseta and the US dollar is not 6: 1. So you know, Ponzi thought of arbitrage.</b></p><p>Theoretically, if you exchange dollars for pesetas, then go to Spain to buy reply coupons, and then go back to the United States to exchange them for stamps, you can earn 10% without counting transportation expenses. This is Ponzi's idea of making a fortune on a whim. But if you really implement this idea, then it will be two. When you get the supply chain and logistics network done, the cost will also eat up 10% of the profit.</p><p><b>But it's still a convenient idea to peddle-straightforward and accessible to all ages.</b>Ponzi concluded that the worse the economy and the depreciation of the currency in countries, I can make higher profits by buying reply coupons, with the highest profit of 400%. The lines are full of economic logic and the concept of international trade. Of course these are vanilla not cherries. The point of the whole thing is that Ponzi promised that if investors invested their money in his stamp carry trade, then:</p><p>The investment period is 90 days, and you can get 50% of the income.</p><p>Later, Ponzi further escalated his promise:</p><p>45-day term, 50% yield.</p><p>The next step for Ponzi, a stamp arbitrage expert, is naturally to train financial planners and develop pyramids. He gave face-to-face and personally trained sales a 10% commission. Such a high commission naturally gave salespeople room to develop offline, so it was promoted layer by layer and Wechat business split. When the scorching summer subsides and autumn goes to winter, investors' cash flow begins to surround you and me like a tide of love.</p><p>Even the Boston Times published reports and trumpeted Ponzi's Dafa. Under Ponzi's post, there is a small advertisement of a bank: The bank's annual interest rate is 5%. Ironically, many years later, many people thought that the Boston Post finally exposed the Ponzi scheme, but it clearly helped others.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/50b226e4b04a46c18709eeb535b6984e\" tg-width=\"321\" tg-height=\"400\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>Boston Post, July 28, 1920. The title above is Ponzi Paid Investors Million Dollars, which means Ponzi has good liquidity</p><p>Ponzi later recalled: Investors were packed like traffic, four people in a row, from City Hall to School Street, then to the Nile Building, stairs and walkways, all the way to my office.<b>Everyone has only one thing in their eyes, and everyone looks like a money madness.</b></p><p>Ponzi's investors are blue-collar workers, priests, politicians, housewives, and famous families in Boston. On the brightest days, 75% of Boston police officers put money in. All these people brought a $20 million golden mountain to Ponzi.</p><p>Repeatedly, greedy human nature, like a repeater, keeps telling us how much people can abandon common sense and believe in an extremely absurd shortcut to make money. There is a saying in English called too good to be true-it looks so beautiful that it can't be true at all.</p><p><b>But no matter how retarded the scam seems, there are always people flocking to it. This is not necessarily a low IQ, but because:</b></p><p><b>MONEY MADNESS.</b></p><p><b>3</b></p><p>By the 1980s, Madoff, the father of Nasdaq, had achieved 5% of the trading volume of the New York Stock Exchange. The unique skill of market making alone can earn Madoff 100 million dollars a year.</p><p>So no one knows why Madoff started a cheating performance, including himself. Afterwards, he also said with tears in his eyes: I have too much money to spend. What do you think I am trying to do? The most extreme disguise of deception is that even the swindlers themselves can't find their motives for doing evil, so the leeks naturally can't find the north.</p><p>But no matter what the motivation is, he didn't satisfy a good hand of \"top market maker\", \"electronic trading pioneer\" and \"Nasdaq chairman\" anyway. At a node where he could win life, he was still obsessed with playing cards constantly, even if it was cheating.</p><p><b>Nor does anyone know when Madoff started his scam.</b>He confessed it was around 1991, but his account manager came out and testified that it could be traced back to 1970. At first, Madoff only accepted money from his small circle of relatives and friends; Later, I received some recommended charitable funds; Later, some large investment institutions were recruited, including banks and hedge funds around the world.</p><p>He almost only accepts money for kneeling and is extremely picky about eating. After breaking into the Palm Beach Club, where Jewish bosses gather together, his contacts are wider, from all corners of the country, reaching the sky. He also almost never sees investors, deliberately keeping a sense of mystery. If you don't have any background, Madoff most likely won't want your money. Because Madoff's fund was the number one hedge fund in the world in terms of asset management scale.</p><p>As for the fund's strategy, the only one Madoff has talked about is called Split Strike. That is to say, go long on a basket of blue-chip stocks, sell call options at the same time, and then use the exchanged premium to buy put options. This is a strategy that cuts off the ups and downs of the stock price. It can indeed reduce volatility, but it almost certainly cannot outperform the broader market in a bull market.</p><p>However, Madoff gave a 30-degree inclination across the bull and bear into the sky, with an annualized return of 10% and basically no fluctuation.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8c7cc65753789c678d0909059bf29536\" tg-width=\"997\" tg-height=\"714\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><b>Of course, Madoff in the real world has stopped trading for a long time. If you want a profit, he will dig a piece of someone else's principal for you.</b>In fact, all the money is in<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/JPM\">JPMorgan Chase</a>The bank savings account is blowing about your grandfather and I are fighting awesome.</p><p>To sum up, the upgraded version of Ponzi scheme, Mai's scheme, has the following characteristics:</p><p>1. Investment strategy and logic ratio<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/KO\">Coca-Cola</a>The secret recipe is still secret, and you can't ask; When you ask, he will ask you: What is the intention of exploring my trade secrets? 2. The rate of return is satisfactory and reasonable, fat and thin, one less point makes it difficult to cut leeks, and one more point scares old birds. 3. Maintain this rate of return for many years, steel straight men, the standard deviation is so small that people are frightening, ignore the market and reject pullback/retracement. 4. Elite Club, VVVIP. Are you looking for my Mr. Mai to invest? No, you're asking me to surrender. Mai Ye's aura is the biggest reason why this scam can finally be known as Guinness. Because, \"He seems like the kind of guy who can help you make a lot of money.\"<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e56957d4713bec5379b30dd05b7a2c70\" tg-width=\"995\" tg-height=\"715\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><b>4</b></p><p>However, Charles Ponzi's scam, in the final analysis, is quite mentally retarded, and he has no background aura, so he quickly attracts suspicion.</p><p>For example, to satisfy all investors' money into stamp arbitrage, you need to have a Titanic full of stamp reply coupons to and from<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/600558\">Atlantic</a>Between; For another example, there must be 160 million stamp reply coupons circulating in the market. But according to the data of the post office, there are only 27,000 copies in the whole market. In fact, all the reply coupons in Ponzi's entire company assets are worth a total of $61.</p><p>The Boston Post's investigation followed, questioning articles such as machine guns, and public opinion finally attracted the attention of prosecutors. With \"steel nerves\", Lao Pang decided to spread out the company's account books to cooperate with the investigation and stop accepting new funds. Negative reports and rumors that Ponzi was about to close their doors finally set off a run frenzy, and $2 million was withdrawn within three days.</p><p>Just as Ponzi was struggling for a run, the Post dug up the melon he stole to write checks that year, and took a picture of it in prison; Finally, the government auditor also announced the results: Ponzi's book deficit was $7 million. Lao Pang was finally arrested, smiling at that time.</p><p><b>In contrast, it is not inevitable that Madoff's scam can be exposed in his lifetime.</b>If you are the largest hedge fund in the world, and at the same time you are a Ponzi scheme, you are actually quite safe. Although you will definitely be exposed in the end, it is hard to say whether it will be exposed in your lifetime, because the amount of funds is too large and the reinvestment rate of investors is too high, so it is more than enough to pay sporadic income and withdraw capital.</p><p>Delaying a problem to a certain level is actually solving it.</p><p>Madoff's performance is just like watching a basketball game and finding a buddy who shoots 90% of three-pointers. Your first reaction should be that there is a fraud in the lying trough. So it's not that no one has investigated Madoff. In fact, the investigation of Madoff's fund and its feeder fund (sub-fund) has not stopped since 1992, in 1999, 2000, 2004, 2005, and 2006, but the SEC disagrees. With the SEC as a pig opponent, Madoff is quite stable.</p><p>Khrushchev once said: Berlin is the testicle of the West. Every time I want Westerners to scream, I pinch Berlin. Similarly, if you want to dampen the self-esteem of the SEC, then go to it and talk to Madoff, who is the egg of the SEC.</p><p>But Mai Ye finally got away before his death, because the once-in-a-century financial crisis in 2008 came unexpectedly. In the era of liquidity panic, everyone is in danger. By December, investors demanded to withdraw $7 billion, but at this time, Madoff had less than 300 million left in his bank account.</p><p>Finally, Lao Mai, who was cornered, confessed to his two sons (later confirmed that he didn't know about the scam) that \"the whole thing was a huge scam\". Two filial and righteous sons turned their heads and immediately reported to the official. Soon Madoff was arrested, and he looked serene at that time. After all, he just unloaded a $65 billion psychological burden.</p><p><b>Madoff defended himself, saying: I also invested in good faith at the beginning, but my performance was poor. I felt that I couldn't be sorry for investors. As a result, I didn't expect to cheat out of the Guinness Book of Records, and I was forced to do nothing.</b>--This is also the reason why it is urgent for the asset management industry to \"remove the just-exchanged\". As soon as you just redeem it, you are the cost of capital, and other risky assets can't be played; Second, you just redeemed it. Obviously, you were a good family at first, but there are always times when you can't get out, and you will force you to become prostitute at this time.</p><p>Of course, swindlers of this level have some anti-social personalities more or less, and they are convinced and hope to be innocent in the end. Just like Nixon, even if he was completely exposed in the end, he had to add-\"I am not a liar\". After torturing his soul in prison, Madoff came to a conclusion: Well, in fact, I am a good person.</p><p>Old driver, are you driving or are you kidding?</p><p><b>5</b></p><p>Just as all mortals die, thunderstorms are Pang Zhi's fate.</p><p>In the end, it is nothing more than these scripts that explode Pang's cheat: 1. The player runs away; 2. The funds of the player are broken; 3. External drastic changes lead to shock in the player. Although I can assert that Pang Liao will explode in the end, I can't guess when it will explode, especially when the victimized little sheep are still re-investing. As mentioned above, without 2008, Madoff might not have hung up.</p><p><b>Therefore, it is a kind of luck for us to witness the explosion of a scam like Madoff in our lifetime.</b></p><p>In the final analysis, the center of the scam stage usually stands an extremely narcissist, who is an anti-social actor. As Ponzi himself said: This good show I showed the world is worth at least 15 million. He's right. Sometimes the enlightenment effect of a liar on the whole society is far-reaching than that of a bunch of thinkers.</p><p>In the hundred years since 1919, magnificent structural changes have taken place at the grand narrative level, but the selfishness and greed of people's hearts have remained unchanged forever, and the terribility lies in Money Maddness. As soon as you see the opportunity to make a fortune, you immediately have the illusion of \"going to work in such a situation. Don't talk about it in front of the opportunity\". So all kinds of scams and all kinds of bubbles were gathered crazily, and finally the thunderstorm ended.</p><p>As for how to see through the Ponzi scheme around us-whether the rate of return is high or low? Whether the manager is a little bastard or a big shot? In the case of Lao Pang and Lao Mai, we found that these were not reliable. Personally, I think the following two points deserve attention:</p><p>1. The ratio of income to volatility is very high, that is, the Sharpe ratio is too high, and the market is ignored. Because you are sharp and high, either high returns and low volatility, or low returns and no volatility, which are all red flags; 2. The investment strategy is black box and the investment target is unknown.<b>1 or 2, possibly Pang Cheat; And 1 and 2 are almost inevitably deceptions.</b></p><p>As far as Chinese people are concerned, although Madoff-level scams have not yet been revealed, they should not be too optimistic. I once heard a private equity tycoon say: I have never seen a country like us, where 1.4 billion people regard making money as their belief. He felt from the bottom of his heart that this country's obsession with wealth was so terrible that any bottom line could fall for wealth. The spread of P2P is an example.</p><p>How many assets in the entire industry have been Ponzitized? There is no one to answer this question. And how many people in the whole industry are still holding on to the crumbling snowball? Winter cannot be let pass, and the snow cannot melt, because once it melts, it will be an avalanche.</p><p>When we look at the century-old history of Ponzi schemes in the United States across the ocean-the small one is short-lived, the medium one can last for several years, and the largest one still looks as stable as Mount Tai. We told ourselves: Don't panic.</p><p>After all, delaying the problem to a certain level is actually solving the problem.</p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Madoff and his Ponzi scheme: Lie to you because you are crazy</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nMadoff and his Ponzi scheme: Lie to you because you are crazy\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/102\">\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">老虎资讯综合 </p>\n<p class=\"h-time smaller\">2021-04-14 22:21</p>\n</div>\n</a>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>Today, sources revealed that Bernard Madoff, the principal culprit of the biggest Ponzi scheme in American history, died in prison. Madoff died at Federal Medical Center in Buttner, North Carolina, believed to be of natural causes, the report said. It is reported that Madoff's lawyer once filed a petition in court during the outbreak of COVID-19 pandemic in 2020, saying that he was suffering from end-stage renal failure and other chronic diseases, and asked for early release from prison, but the court rejected it.</p><p><b>Who is he?</b></p><p>Bernard Madoff, the former chairman of Nasdaq, is a legend in the history of world finance. He spent 20 years carefully planning the biggest fraud case in American history-\"Madoff Fraud Case\".</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f832f1b2348399e68ab854dd7ebeedd2\" tg-width=\"580\" tg-height=\"330\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>Madoff's means of committing fraud is a \"Ponzi scheme\" based on laminated investment. The operation method is to use hedge funds, use fake investment projects as bait, and promise a high rate of return of 10%-15% to attract huge sums of money from financial institutions, individual investors and even senior bankers, defrauding a total of about 65 billion dollars. The victims are many American politicians and celebrities.</p><p>In March 2009, Madoff pleaded guilty to 11 criminal charges including securities fraud, mail fraud, wire fraud, money laundering, falsifying financial statements and perjury.</p><p>On the evening of June 26, 2009, a U.S. federal district judge ordered the confiscation of $170 billion in property of Bernard Madoff, the former chairman of the board of directors of Nasdaq, who was suspected of defrauding a large number of investors. The prosecution believes that this penalty amount is equivalent to the amount of funds flowing into Madoff's main account of fraudulent activities.</p><p>On the same day, Madoff was sentenced to 150 years' imprisonment in new york for fraud, which is the maximum number of years allowed by American law.</p><p>Today, let's recall this story again.</p><p><b>1</b></p><p>In 1969, Nixon became president of the United States.<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/APOL\">Apollo</a>The 11th successfully landed on the moon,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AWI\">Armstrong</a>A big step on behalf of humanity. The U.S. government debt, the largest bureau in the world, had rolled to US $354 billion by 1969, with a Treasury Bond/GDP ratio of 35%.</p><p><b>However, in the end, Nixon's political legacy was a self-defense of \"I am not a liar\", and the Apollo moon landing was also regarded by conspiracy theorists as a shocking hoax.</b>This year, Elvis Presley hit the top spot of Billboard, called \"Suspicious Minds.\" There are these two words:</p><p>We can't build our dreams? On suspicious minds. This word reminds me of many \"mentors\" who have told us: If you want to get rich and realize your dreams, don't be suspicious.</p><p>That is, in this year, the securities company founded by 31-year-old Bernard Madoff (Bernard Madoff) made a market in the pink sheet market. His company relied on licking some OTC transactions that big companies despise, and also managed some small accounts of relatives and friends, and gained a firm foothold on Wall Street.</p><p>At that time, Wall Street was still the \"world of white shoes\"-\"white shoes\" were the standard of Ivy League graduates, and were later extended to elitism, which was synonymous with \"blue blood\". For example, top investment banks can be called white shoe companies. But the white shoe company ignored the white business. Therefore, those unlisted low-end OTC stocks will be divided up by some small companies with relatively poor backgrounds.</p><p>Madoff, who was born as a civilian, saw huge business opportunities from OTC. In order to compete with the market makers of the New York Stock Exchange (called specialist), his company, as a pioneer, applied an electronic trading system; Madoff foresaw the revolution of electronic trading system on OTC, which was the artificial intelligence dream of his era.</p><p><b>And this system later grew wildly, and finally grew into Nasdaq.</b></p><p>In addition to electronic, Lao Mai also figured out a deceptive business model, which still prevailed until I left the American securities industry. This game is called pay for order flow, which means that as a market maker, he will give a rebate (usually one or two cents per share) to the brokerage that routed the transaction order to him to attract traffic. In the end, he will charge the trader a huge spread (spread), enough to earn back the rebate. And this practice is completely legal.</p><p>Relying on electronic transactions + pay for order flow, Madoff is like a duck to water on Wall Street.</p><p>So the first half of Madoff is a typical successful Jewish rich generation, who started from scratch and became bigger and stronger. He likes to advocate that he is one of the founders of Nasdaq-Madoff's company was once the largest market maker of Nasdaq, and he was once the chairman of the board of directors of Nasdaq-which is not nonsense.</p><p>Until the great scam of the century was exposed, his life looked extremely glorious, and his expression looked extremely serene.<b>Lao Mai is quite complacent: After all, I am the father of Nasdaq.</b></p><p>2</p><p>Back in the summer of 1919, the founder of the \"Ponzi scheme\", 37-year-old Charles Ponzi, who had been released from prison for many years, decided to fire his boss and father-in-law and leave the grocery store where he worked. He rented a small office in Boston, review business models every day, and continued to toss his big hope of $1 million.</p><p>I believe that history is full of probability.</p><p>Our textbooks preach determinism. For example, the history teacher once taught us that the Second World War was bound to break out, which was the inevitable result of the tense world pattern. Modern historians can basically agree that this view is bullshit. After that, the Cold War situation became even more tense, but there was no third war. If you are familiar with the whole story of the Cuban Missile Crisis, you will burn a pillar of incense to probability. And if Hitler had succeeded in the art test that year, there would be a high probability that there would not be World War II in our parallel universe.</p><p>Ponzi's historical probability happened when one day he received a letter from Spain with an \"international postal reply coupon\".<b>This coupon, which you bought for thirty cents in Spain, can be exchanged for five cent stamps in the United States, and the exchange rate is locked up by international treaties. But the exchange rate between the Spanish currency peseta and the US dollar is not 6: 1. So you know, Ponzi thought of arbitrage.</b></p><p>Theoretically, if you exchange dollars for pesetas, then go to Spain to buy reply coupons, and then go back to the United States to exchange them for stamps, you can earn 10% without counting transportation expenses. This is Ponzi's idea of making a fortune on a whim. But if you really implement this idea, then it will be two. When you get the supply chain and logistics network done, the cost will also eat up 10% of the profit.</p><p><b>But it's still a convenient idea to peddle-straightforward and accessible to all ages.</b>Ponzi concluded that the worse the economy and the depreciation of the currency in countries, I can make higher profits by buying reply coupons, with the highest profit of 400%. The lines are full of economic logic and the concept of international trade. Of course these are vanilla not cherries. The point of the whole thing is that Ponzi promised that if investors invested their money in his stamp carry trade, then:</p><p>The investment period is 90 days, and you can get 50% of the income.</p><p>Later, Ponzi further escalated his promise:</p><p>45-day term, 50% yield.</p><p>The next step for Ponzi, a stamp arbitrage expert, is naturally to train financial planners and develop pyramids. He gave face-to-face and personally trained sales a 10% commission. Such a high commission naturally gave salespeople room to develop offline, so it was promoted layer by layer and Wechat business split. When the scorching summer subsides and autumn goes to winter, investors' cash flow begins to surround you and me like a tide of love.</p><p>Even the Boston Times published reports and trumpeted Ponzi's Dafa. Under Ponzi's post, there is a small advertisement of a bank: The bank's annual interest rate is 5%. Ironically, many years later, many people thought that the Boston Post finally exposed the Ponzi scheme, but it clearly helped others.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/50b226e4b04a46c18709eeb535b6984e\" tg-width=\"321\" tg-height=\"400\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>Boston Post, July 28, 1920. The title above is Ponzi Paid Investors Million Dollars, which means Ponzi has good liquidity</p><p>Ponzi later recalled: Investors were packed like traffic, four people in a row, from City Hall to School Street, then to the Nile Building, stairs and walkways, all the way to my office.<b>Everyone has only one thing in their eyes, and everyone looks like a money madness.</b></p><p>Ponzi's investors are blue-collar workers, priests, politicians, housewives, and famous families in Boston. On the brightest days, 75% of Boston police officers put money in. All these people brought a $20 million golden mountain to Ponzi.</p><p>Repeatedly, greedy human nature, like a repeater, keeps telling us how much people can abandon common sense and believe in an extremely absurd shortcut to make money. There is a saying in English called too good to be true-it looks so beautiful that it can't be true at all.</p><p><b>But no matter how retarded the scam seems, there are always people flocking to it. This is not necessarily a low IQ, but because:</b></p><p><b>MONEY MADNESS.</b></p><p><b>3</b></p><p>By the 1980s, Madoff, the father of Nasdaq, had achieved 5% of the trading volume of the New York Stock Exchange. The unique skill of market making alone can earn Madoff 100 million dollars a year.</p><p>So no one knows why Madoff started a cheating performance, including himself. Afterwards, he also said with tears in his eyes: I have too much money to spend. What do you think I am trying to do? The most extreme disguise of deception is that even the swindlers themselves can't find their motives for doing evil, so the leeks naturally can't find the north.</p><p>But no matter what the motivation is, he didn't satisfy a good hand of \"top market maker\", \"electronic trading pioneer\" and \"Nasdaq chairman\" anyway. At a node where he could win life, he was still obsessed with playing cards constantly, even if it was cheating.</p><p><b>Nor does anyone know when Madoff started his scam.</b>He confessed it was around 1991, but his account manager came out and testified that it could be traced back to 1970. At first, Madoff only accepted money from his small circle of relatives and friends; Later, I received some recommended charitable funds; Later, some large investment institutions were recruited, including banks and hedge funds around the world.</p><p>He almost only accepts money for kneeling and is extremely picky about eating. After breaking into the Palm Beach Club, where Jewish bosses gather together, his contacts are wider, from all corners of the country, reaching the sky. He also almost never sees investors, deliberately keeping a sense of mystery. If you don't have any background, Madoff most likely won't want your money. Because Madoff's fund was the number one hedge fund in the world in terms of asset management scale.</p><p>As for the fund's strategy, the only one Madoff has talked about is called Split Strike. That is to say, go long on a basket of blue-chip stocks, sell call options at the same time, and then use the exchanged premium to buy put options. This is a strategy that cuts off the ups and downs of the stock price. It can indeed reduce volatility, but it almost certainly cannot outperform the broader market in a bull market.</p><p>However, Madoff gave a 30-degree inclination across the bull and bear into the sky, with an annualized return of 10% and basically no fluctuation.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8c7cc65753789c678d0909059bf29536\" tg-width=\"997\" tg-height=\"714\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><b>Of course, Madoff in the real world has stopped trading for a long time. If you want a profit, he will dig a piece of someone else's principal for you.</b>In fact, all the money is in<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/JPM\">JPMorgan Chase</a>The bank savings account is blowing about your grandfather and I are fighting awesome.</p><p>To sum up, the upgraded version of Ponzi scheme, Mai's scheme, has the following characteristics:</p><p>1. Investment strategy and logic ratio<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/KO\">Coca-Cola</a>The secret recipe is still secret, and you can't ask; When you ask, he will ask you: What is the intention of exploring my trade secrets? 2. The rate of return is satisfactory and reasonable, fat and thin, one less point makes it difficult to cut leeks, and one more point scares old birds. 3. Maintain this rate of return for many years, steel straight men, the standard deviation is so small that people are frightening, ignore the market and reject pullback/retracement. 4. Elite Club, VVVIP. Are you looking for my Mr. Mai to invest? No, you're asking me to surrender. Mai Ye's aura is the biggest reason why this scam can finally be known as Guinness. Because, \"He seems like the kind of guy who can help you make a lot of money.\"<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e56957d4713bec5379b30dd05b7a2c70\" tg-width=\"995\" tg-height=\"715\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><b>4</b></p><p>However, Charles Ponzi's scam, in the final analysis, is quite mentally retarded, and he has no background aura, so he quickly attracts suspicion.</p><p>For example, to satisfy all investors' money into stamp arbitrage, you need to have a Titanic full of stamp reply coupons to and from<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/600558\">Atlantic</a>Between; For another example, there must be 160 million stamp reply coupons circulating in the market. But according to the data of the post office, there are only 27,000 copies in the whole market. In fact, all the reply coupons in Ponzi's entire company assets are worth a total of $61.</p><p>The Boston Post's investigation followed, questioning articles such as machine guns, and public opinion finally attracted the attention of prosecutors. With \"steel nerves\", Lao Pang decided to spread out the company's account books to cooperate with the investigation and stop accepting new funds. Negative reports and rumors that Ponzi was about to close their doors finally set off a run frenzy, and $2 million was withdrawn within three days.</p><p>Just as Ponzi was struggling for a run, the Post dug up the melon he stole to write checks that year, and took a picture of it in prison; Finally, the government auditor also announced the results: Ponzi's book deficit was $7 million. Lao Pang was finally arrested, smiling at that time.</p><p><b>In contrast, it is not inevitable that Madoff's scam can be exposed in his lifetime.</b>If you are the largest hedge fund in the world, and at the same time you are a Ponzi scheme, you are actually quite safe. Although you will definitely be exposed in the end, it is hard to say whether it will be exposed in your lifetime, because the amount of funds is too large and the reinvestment rate of investors is too high, so it is more than enough to pay sporadic income and withdraw capital.</p><p>Delaying a problem to a certain level is actually solving it.</p><p>Madoff's performance is just like watching a basketball game and finding a buddy who shoots 90% of three-pointers. Your first reaction should be that there is a fraud in the lying trough. So it's not that no one has investigated Madoff. In fact, the investigation of Madoff's fund and its feeder fund (sub-fund) has not stopped since 1992, in 1999, 2000, 2004, 2005, and 2006, but the SEC disagrees. With the SEC as a pig opponent, Madoff is quite stable.</p><p>Khrushchev once said: Berlin is the testicle of the West. Every time I want Westerners to scream, I pinch Berlin. Similarly, if you want to dampen the self-esteem of the SEC, then go to it and talk to Madoff, who is the egg of the SEC.</p><p>But Mai Ye finally got away before his death, because the once-in-a-century financial crisis in 2008 came unexpectedly. In the era of liquidity panic, everyone is in danger. By December, investors demanded to withdraw $7 billion, but at this time, Madoff had less than 300 million left in his bank account.</p><p>Finally, Lao Mai, who was cornered, confessed to his two sons (later confirmed that he didn't know about the scam) that \"the whole thing was a huge scam\". Two filial and righteous sons turned their heads and immediately reported to the official. Soon Madoff was arrested, and he looked serene at that time. After all, he just unloaded a $65 billion psychological burden.</p><p><b>Madoff defended himself, saying: I also invested in good faith at the beginning, but my performance was poor. I felt that I couldn't be sorry for investors. As a result, I didn't expect to cheat out of the Guinness Book of Records, and I was forced to do nothing.</b>--This is also the reason why it is urgent for the asset management industry to \"remove the just-exchanged\". As soon as you just redeem it, you are the cost of capital, and other risky assets can't be played; Second, you just redeemed it. Obviously, you were a good family at first, but there are always times when you can't get out, and you will force you to become prostitute at this time.</p><p>Of course, swindlers of this level have some anti-social personalities more or less, and they are convinced and hope to be innocent in the end. Just like Nixon, even if he was completely exposed in the end, he had to add-\"I am not a liar\". After torturing his soul in prison, Madoff came to a conclusion: Well, in fact, I am a good person.</p><p>Old driver, are you driving or are you kidding?</p><p><b>5</b></p><p>Just as all mortals die, thunderstorms are Pang Zhi's fate.</p><p>In the end, it is nothing more than these scripts that explode Pang's cheat: 1. The player runs away; 2. The funds of the player are broken; 3. External drastic changes lead to shock in the player. Although I can assert that Pang Liao will explode in the end, I can't guess when it will explode, especially when the victimized little sheep are still re-investing. As mentioned above, without 2008, Madoff might not have hung up.</p><p><b>Therefore, it is a kind of luck for us to witness the explosion of a scam like Madoff in our lifetime.</b></p><p>In the final analysis, the center of the scam stage usually stands an extremely narcissist, who is an anti-social actor. As Ponzi himself said: This good show I showed the world is worth at least 15 million. He's right. Sometimes the enlightenment effect of a liar on the whole society is far-reaching than that of a bunch of thinkers.</p><p>In the hundred years since 1919, magnificent structural changes have taken place at the grand narrative level, but the selfishness and greed of people's hearts have remained unchanged forever, and the terribility lies in Money Maddness. As soon as you see the opportunity to make a fortune, you immediately have the illusion of \"going to work in such a situation. Don't talk about it in front of the opportunity\". So all kinds of scams and all kinds of bubbles were gathered crazily, and finally the thunderstorm ended.</p><p>As for how to see through the Ponzi scheme around us-whether the rate of return is high or low? Whether the manager is a little bastard or a big shot? In the case of Lao Pang and Lao Mai, we found that these were not reliable. Personally, I think the following two points deserve attention:</p><p>1. The ratio of income to volatility is very high, that is, the Sharpe ratio is too high, and the market is ignored. Because you are sharp and high, either high returns and low volatility, or low returns and no volatility, which are all red flags; 2. The investment strategy is black box and the investment target is unknown.<b>1 or 2, possibly Pang Cheat; And 1 and 2 are almost inevitably deceptions.</b></p><p>As far as Chinese people are concerned, although Madoff-level scams have not yet been revealed, they should not be too optimistic. I once heard a private equity tycoon say: I have never seen a country like us, where 1.4 billion people regard making money as their belief. He felt from the bottom of his heart that this country's obsession with wealth was so terrible that any bottom line could fall for wealth. The spread of P2P is an example.</p><p>How many assets in the entire industry have been Ponzitized? There is no one to answer this question. And how many people in the whole industry are still holding on to the crumbling snowball? Winter cannot be let pass, and the snow cannot melt, because once it melts, it will be an avalanche.</p><p>When we look at the century-old history of Ponzi schemes in the United States across the ocean-the small one is short-lived, the medium one can last for several years, and the largest one still looks as stable as Mount Tai. We told ourselves: Don't panic.</p><p>After all, delaying the problem to a certain level is actually solving the problem.</p>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/30a84f32ce98d6e11b52b474b7941db4","relate_stocks":{".DJI":"道琼斯"},"is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1165236611","content_text":"今天，消息人士透露，美国史上最大庞氏骗局的主犯伯纳德·麦道夫在狱中死亡。报道称，麦道夫死于北卡罗来纳州巴特纳的联邦医疗中心，据信为自然死亡。据悉，麦道夫的律师曾经在2020年新冠疫情爆发期间入禀法院，指他患上末期肾衰竭及其他慢性疾病，要求提早出狱，但遭到法院驳回。他是谁？伯纳德·麦道夫，前纳斯达克主席，堪称世界金融史上的传奇人物，其花费了长达20年的时间，精心策划了美国有史以来最大的诈骗案—“麦道夫诈骗案”。麦道夫实施诈骗的手段是基于层压式投资的“庞氏骗局”，操作方式是利用对冲基金，以虚设投资项目为诱饵，通过承诺10%-15%的高收益率，吸引了金融机构、个人投资者甚至资深银行家们的巨额资金，骗取共约650亿美元资金，受害者不乏美国政要与明星。2009年3月，麦道夫受到包括证券欺诈、邮件欺诈、电讯欺诈、洗钱、伪造财务报表、作伪证在内的11项刑事指控认罪。2009年6月26日晚，美国联邦地区法官下令，没收涉嫌欺诈大量投资者的纳斯达克前董事会主席伯纳德·麦道夫1700亿美元财产。检方认为，这一处罚数目与流入麦道夫欺诈活动主要账户的资金数额相当。当日，麦道夫因诈骗案在纽约被判处150年监禁，是美国法律所允许的最高年限。今天，让我们再次回味一下这个故事。11969年，尼克松就任美国总统，阿波罗11号成功登月，阿姆斯特朗代表人类走了一个大步。而天下第一庞局美国政府债务，到1969年已经滚到3540亿美元，国债/GDP 比35%。不过最后尼克松的政治遗产是一句“我不是骗子”的自辩，而阿波罗登月也被阴谋论者认为是一个惊天骗局。这一年猫王有首金曲冲上了Billboard榜首，叫《狐疑的心》（Suspicious Minds）。有这么两句词：We can't build our dreams?On suspicious minds.这词让我想起许多“导师”都曾告诉过我们：要暴富，要圆梦，就不要疑神疑鬼。也就是这一年，31岁的伯纳德·麦道夫（Bernard Madoff）创始的证券公司在粉单市场做市，他的公司依靠舔舐一些大公司看不上的OTC交易，以及兼为打理亲戚朋友的一些小账户，在华尔街站稳了脚跟。彼时的华尔街还是“白鞋天下”—— “白鞋”（white shoe）当年乃常青藤毕业生的标配，后引申为精英主义，与“蓝血”同义。比如顶尖投行就可以被称为白鞋公司。但白鞋公司不理小白业务。于是那些未挂牌的低端的OTC股票，就会被一些出身相对贫贱的小公司瓜分掉。平民出身的麦道夫从OTC里看出了巨大商机。为了与纽交所的做市商（称为专家specialist）分庭抗礼，他的公司作为先驱，应用了一套电子交易系统；麦道夫预见到电子化交易系统在OTC上的革命，这是他那个年代的人工智能梦想。而这套系统后来野蛮生长，最后长成了纳斯达克。除了电子化以外，老麦还摸索出一套诡诈的商业模式，此模式一直到我离开美国证券业时仍然盛行。这套玩法叫pay for order flow，意思是作为做市商，他会给将交易订单route到他手上成交的券商一笔回扣（一般是一股一两分钱），来吸引流量。他最后会向交易者收取一个极大的spread（价差），足以赚回回扣。而这种做法完全合法。靠着电子交易+pay for order flow，麦道夫在华尔街如鱼得水。所以麦道夫的前半段是一个典型成功的犹太人富一代，白手起家，做大做强。他喜欢鼓吹自己是纳斯达克的奠基人之一 —— 麦道夫的公司一度是纳斯达克最大的做市商，他也曾经是纳斯达克的董事会主席—— 也不算是胡说八道。一直到世纪大骗局被揭穿之前 ，他的人生看起来都无比光辉，他的神态看起来都无比安详。老麦颇为自得：毕竟我是纳斯达克，的爸爸呀。2时间重新回到1919年夏天，“庞氏骗局”的创始人——出狱多年的37岁查尔斯·庞兹决定开除自己的老板兼岳父，离开他打工的杂货铺。他在波士顿租了个小办公室，天天复盘各种商业模式，继续折腾他那个100万美元的大希冀。我相信历史充满或然性。我们的教科书宣扬决定论，比如历史老师曾教我们，第二次世界大战必然爆发，这是剑拔弩张的世界格局的必然结果。现代历史学家基本上能同意这种观点算是扯淡。之后冷战形势更剑拔弩张，但并无三战到来。如果你熟知古巴导弹危机始末，就会给或然性烧一柱高香。而如果希特勒当年艺考成功，大概率我们这个平行宇宙里就不会有二战。而庞兹的历史或然性，发生在某天他收到一封来自西班牙的信，而信里有一张“国际邮政回信券” （international postal reply coupon）。这张券，你在西班牙花三毛钱购得，在美国可以换5美分的邮票，兑换率由国际条约锁死。但西班牙货币比塞塔和美元并不是6：1的汇率。所以你懂的，庞兹想到了套利。理论上，你拿美元换比塞塔，然后跑去西班牙买回信券，再回到美国换成邮票，不算交通费，可赚10%。这就是庞兹突发奇想的发财点子。但如果你真的去执行这个点子那就二了，等你搞定了供应链和物流网，成本也吃掉了10%的利润。但这仍然是一个方便兜售的点子——直白易懂，老少皆宜。庞兹得出结论，经济越差货币越贬值的国家，我去买回信券就能套到更高的利润，最高利润可达400%。字里行间充满了经济学逻辑与国贸概念。当然这些都是香草不是樱桃，整件事的重点是，庞兹承诺，如果投资者将钱投资于他的邮票套利交易，那么：投资期限90天，能获得50%的收益。后来庞兹进一步升级了他的承诺：45天期限，50%收益。邮票套利专家庞兹的下一步，自然是培训理财师，发展金字塔。他给面授机宜、亲自培训的销售10%提成，如此高的佣金自然又给销售们发展下线的空间，于是层层推进、微商裂变。到了酷暑散退、秋去冬来之际，投资者的现金流开始爱如潮水它将你我包围。甚至《波士顿时报》都刊登报告，大肆宣扬庞氏大法。在庞氏吹文的下面，有一小块某银行的广告：本银行年息5%。讽刺的是多年以后，很多人认为是《波士顿邮报》最后拆穿了庞氏骗局，但其明明曾助纣为虐。1920年7月28日《波士顿邮报》。上面的标题是《庞兹向投资者支付了百万美元》，意思是庞兹流动性良好庞兹后来回忆：投资者如车水马龙，四人一排，从市政厅，排到了学校街，接着排到了尼罗河大楼，楼梯上、走道里，水泄不通，一直排到我的办公室。每个人眼睛里都只有一样东西，每个人看起来都像一个钱疯子（money madness）。庞兹的投资者三教九流，蓝领、牧师、政客、家庭主妇、波士顿的名门望族。在最高光的日子里，75%的波士顿警察投了钱进来。所有这些人给庞氏带来了一座2000万美元的金山。屡次三番，贪婪的人性就像一个复读机一样不断地告诉我们——人是多么能弃常识于不顾，去相信一条无比荒诞的生财捷径。英文里有一个说法叫 too good to be true —— 看起来实在太美，以至于根本不可能是真事。但无论看起来多弱智的骗局，也总有人趋之若鹜。这并不一定是智商低，而是因为：MONEY MADNESS。3到了八十年代，纳斯达克的爸爸麦道夫，公司已经做到了纽交所5%的交易量。光做市这一个绝活，就能为麦道夫每年挣到一个亿美元。所以没人知道麦道夫，为什么要开始瞒天过海的表演，包括他自己。事后他也泪眼婆娑地表示：我的钱已经多到花不完，你说我这是图啥。骗术最极致的伪装，就是连骗子自己都找不出自己为非作歹的动机，那韭菜们自然就更找不着北。但无论出于什么动机，反正他是没有满足一手“顶尖做市商”、“电子交易先驱”、“纳斯达克主席”的好牌，在一个能够躺赢人生的节点上，他依然醉心于不停出牌，哪怕是出老千。同样也没人知道麦道夫到底是何时开始他的骗局。他坦白是在1991年左右，但他的账户经理出来指证说最早可以追溯到1970年。一开始麦道夫只收他亲友小圈子的钱；再后来收一些经引荐的慈善基金； 再后来收一些大型投资机构，包括全球各地的银行与对冲基金。他几乎只收跪着的钱，且极为挑食。打入犹太大佬扎堆的棕榈滩俱乐部后，其人脉触角更广，五湖四海，直达天际。他也几乎从来不见投资者，刻意保持神秘感。你要是没点背景，麦道夫大概率不要你的钱。因为按资产管理规模，麦道夫的基金就是当年世界第一的对冲基金。至于基金的策略，麦道夫唯一谈过的，叫做Split Strike。也就是做多一篮子蓝筹股，同时卖出看涨期权，再用换得的权利金买入看跌期权。这是一个自绝股价上下空间的策略，确实可以降低波动，但牛市里几乎肯定跑不过大盘。然而，麦道夫给出的是穿越牛熊的倾角三十度直插云霄，年化收益10%，波动基本没有。当然，真实世界的麦道夫很早就已经不操盘了，你要收益，他就去别人的本金里挖一块给你 。事实上，钱都是在摩根大通银行的储蓄账户里吹着你爷爷我正在意念盘战斗的牛逼。总结一下，庞氏骗局的升级版麦氏骗局，有以下几个特点：1. 投资策略与逻辑比可口可乐的秘方还隐秘，且不能问；你一问，他还要反问你：探我商业机密是何居心哇？2. 回报率合意且合理，肥瘦相宜，少一分难割韭菜，多一分吓飞老鸟。3. 多年保持此收益率，钢铁直男，标准差小到让人害怕，无视市场，拒绝回撤。4. 精英俱乐部，VVVIP。你找我麦爷投资？不，你是找我麦爷投诚。麦爷的光环是这场骗局能够最终名刻吉尼斯的最大原因。 因为，“他看起来就是那种能帮你赚大钱的人。”4但是查尔斯·庞兹的骗局，说到底还是比较弱智的，小瘪三出身的他也没有背景光环，所以很快招致狐疑的心。比如，要满足所有投资人的钱进入邮票套利，你需要有一艘泰坦尼克号装满邮票回信券，往返于大西洋之间；再比如，市场上必须要有1.6亿张邮票回信券流通。但根据邮局的数据，整个市场上一共就只有27000张。事实上庞氏整个公司资产里所有的回信券，一共就值61美元。《波士顿邮报》的调查如影随形，质疑文章如机关枪，舆情也最终招致了检察官的关注。老庞凭“钢铁般的神经”，决定摊开公司账簿配合调查，并停止接受新的资金。负面报道与庞兹即将关门的传闻，终于掀起挤兑狂潮，三天内200万美元被提走。正在庞兹为挤兑疲于奔命之际，《邮报》挖出他当年盗开支票的瓜，并配图入监照；最后政府审计师也公布了结果：庞兹公司的账面赤字为700万美元。老庞终于被拘捕，其时面带微笑。相比而言，麦道夫的骗局能在他有生之年被揭穿，其实并非必然 。如果你是世界第一规模对冲基金，而同时你又是一个庞氏骗局，其实你还蛮安全的。虽然最终你一定败露，但是否在你有生之年败露并不好说，因为资金量太大而投资者复投率太高，支付零星的收益和撤资绰绰有余。拖延问题到一定境界，其实就是解决问题。麦道夫的业绩，就像你看篮球赛发现有个哥们投三分球命中率 90%，你第一反应就应该是卧槽有诈。所以不是没有人调查过麦道夫，事实上从1992年起对麦道夫的基金以及其feeder fund（子基金）的调查就没断过，1999、2000、2004、2005、2006年年都有，但SEC不以为然。有SEC这个猪对手在，所以麦道夫还蛮稳的。赫鲁晓夫曾说：柏林是西方的睾丸，每次我想让西方人惨叫，我就去捏柏林。同理如果你想要去挫伤SEC的自尊，那就去找它谈谈麦道夫，麦道夫就是SEC的蛋。但麦爷最后还是在辞世之前玩脱了，因为百年不遇的2008年金融危机不期而至。流动性恐慌的时代人人自危，到了十二月，投资者要求抽资70亿美元，而此时麦道夫的银行账户里只剩不足三亿。最后走投无路的老麦向两个儿子（后证实对骗局居然不知情）坦白，“整件事就是一场巨大的骗局”。两个孝顺而富有正义感的儿子转头立即报官，很快麦道夫被抓，其时神态安详。毕竟，他刚卸下了一个650亿美元的心理负担。麦道夫自辩说：我一开始也是诚信投资，无奈业绩不佳，觉得不能对不起投资人啊，结果也没想到骗出了吉尼斯记录，我也是被迫无奈。—— 这也是为啥资管业“去除刚兑”刻不容缓的原因。一来你刚兑，你就是cost of capital，那别的风险资产还玩不玩了；二来你刚兑，明明一开始你是良家，但是你总有刚不出的时候，此时就会逼良为娼。当然这种级别的骗子，或多或少都有一些反社会人格，骗到最后自己也深信不疑，顾盼无辜。就像尼克松即使到最后彻底败露，还要补一句——“我不是一个骗子”。麦道夫在狱中拷问完自己的灵魂之后得到一个结论：嗯，其实我是个好人。老司机你这是在开车呢还是在开玩笑呢。5正如凡人皆有一死，暴雷是庞骗的宿命。最终点爆庞骗的也无非就是这么几个剧本： 1. 做局者跑路；2. 做局者资金断裂；3. 外部剧变导致做局者休克。虽然我能断言庞骗最后一定会爆，但并不能猜到何时会爆，尤其当受害小绵羊们还在不断复投。正如上文所言，如果没2008，麦道夫也未必挂。所以有生之年我们能见证像麦道夫这种级别的庞骗爆掉，是一种吃瓜的幸运。说到底，骗局舞台的中心一般都站着一个极度自恋狂，都是反社会的演员。如庞兹自己所言：我给这个世界看的这场好戏，至少值1500万。他说的没错。有时候一个骗子对整个社会的启蒙作用，比一堆思想家的影响都深远。从1919年以来的一百年，宏大叙事层面发生了波澜壮阔的结构变革，但人心的自私与贪婪亘古不变，而可怕就可怕在 Money Maddness，一见发财机会，马上产生一种 “上班在这样的机会面前就不要谈了”的错觉。所以疯狂扎堆各种骗局与各种泡沫，最后暴雷了事。至于如何识破我们身边的庞氏骗局—— 看收益率是高是低？看管理人是小瘪三还是大人物？在老庞与老麦的案例里，我们发现这些都不太靠谱。我个人认为以下两点值得关注：1. 收益与波动之比很高，也就是夏普率过高，且无视市场。因为你夏普高，要么是高收益低波动，要么是低收益无波动，都是red flag；2. 投资策略黑箱，投资标的不明。1或2，可能是庞骗；而1且2，几乎必然是庞骗。而对国人而言，虽然尚未出现麦道夫级别的骗局败露，但不可过于乐观 。曾听某私募大佬说过：我从没见过一个国家像我们一样，十四亿人把赚钱当信仰。他是发自肺腑地觉得这个国家对财富的执念太可怕，为求财什么底线都能沦陷。P2P泛滥成灾就是一个例证。整个行业里有多少资产已经庞氏化？这个问题无人可答。而整个行业里又有多少人仍在死撑摇摇欲坠的大雪球，不能让冬天过去，雪不能化，因为一化就是雪崩。而当我们隔洋远观美利坚庞氏骗局的百年历史 —— 小号的庞骗昙花一现，中号的能撑数年，而最大号的目前看起来仍然稳如泰山。我们告诉自己：别慌。毕竟，拖延问题到一定境界，其实就是解决问题啊。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{".DJI":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":655,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":323196474,"gmtCreate":1615307374498,"gmtModify":1704781017445,"author":{"id":"3576735162131152","authorId":"3576735162131152","name":"Daniel008","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f6ed2db39b02fffffcb0c1691f10ca77","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3576735162131152","idStr":"3576735162131152"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"m","listText":"m","text":"m","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/323196474","repostId":"320687942","repostType":1,"repost":{"id":320687942,"gmtCreate":1615093170786,"gmtModify":1704778625517,"author":{"id":"3549309938028373","authorId":"3549309938028373","name":"儿子娃娃","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b6f9d46104c16089c4424e37f8f790ee","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3549309938028373","idStr":"3549309938028373"},"themes":[],"title":"30支疫情受害價值股","htmlText":"又到了週末，本來想的寫一篇AI的一家公司，但看到本週大大小小的科技股都殺了很多的估值，就準備簡單彙總一下一些受疫情影響的低估股。三大股指裏道瓊斯指數其實並沒有怎麼下跌，是不是這兩週完成了一個資金的板塊移動？1.9萬億的行情會不會在道指展開？是時候提前佈局這些股票了[開心] 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