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V你好
2022-09-06
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Emergency across the board! The "liquidation" alarm sounded, and the "Lehman moment" was staged again?
V你好
2022-05-20
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@AfraSimon:7 Biggest Bargain Stocks to Buy Before They Rebound
V你好
2022-02-05
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@凉生凉姜生暖:1998年,巴菲特在佛羅里達大學商學院做了一場超有內涵的演講,這次演講後來被稱爲是巴菲特一生中最經典的演講,沒有之一。段永平強烈推薦這次的演講內容,據說已經看了10遍。“請各位提問時一定要刁鑽,你們問的問題越難,才越好玩。”值得一提的是,近一個半小時的演講中,巴菲特本人並沒有長篇大論,而是把大部分時間交給了現場的同學,讓他們提出自己最爲關心的問題。“您喜歡什麼樣的公司?”“到底該花多少錢買一家公司?”“能否講講您在商業中犯的錯誤?”一個個犀利的問題並沒有難倒這位“股神”,他既幽默風趣的回答了學生們的提問,又藉着問題深入剖析了自己的選股標準、組合構建和思維方式。黃崢此前說過,“我發現巴菲特講的東西其實特別簡單,連我母親都能聽懂。常識顯而易見、容易理解,但我們因爲成長、學習形成的偏見和個人利益的訴求矇蔽了我們。”如黃崢所言,巴菲特極其擅長把重要的投資哲理用非常通俗易懂的比喻來告訴大家,二十年前便是如此,一個個生動的案例加上形象化的表達,讓這場演講成爲經典中的經典,今天重溫下來,依然極具啓迪意義。演講原文較長,我們從中整理了40條精華內容摘編成文,涉及投資理念、生意判斷以及對年輕人的希冀,相信讀後一定會對你有所啓發。01、別做安全邊際以外的事01.假設你遞給我一把槍,裏面有1000個彈倉、100萬個彈倉,其中只有一個彈倉裏有一顆子彈,你說:“把槍對準你的太陽穴,扣一下扳機,你要多少錢?”我不幹。你給我多少錢,我都不幹。要是我贏了,我不需要那些錢;要是我輸了,結果不用說了。這樣的事,我一點都不想做,但是在金融領域,人們經常做這樣的事,都不經過大腦。02.假設年初你有1億美元,如果不上槓杆,能賺10%,上槓杆的成功率是99%,能賺20%,年末時你有1.1億美元,還是1.2億美元,有區別嗎?沒一點區別。要是年末你死了,寫訃告的人可能有個筆誤,雖然你有1.2億,但他寫成了1.1億。多賺的
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The \"liquidation\" alarm sounded, and the \"Lehman moment\" was staged again?","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1106602414","media":"券商中国","summary":"面对俄罗斯的“终极杀招”,欧洲正在酝酿“极端措施”。","content":"<p><html><head></head><body>Europe is preparing for the \"worst\".</p><p>Currently, the \"Lehman crisis\" alarm in the European energy market has completely sounded. Affected by Russia's indefinite \"gas cut-off\", European natural gas futures prices soared by more than 32% on September 5, local time. At the same time, the European power market fluctuated violently, causing European power traders to suffer heavy losses in hedging transactions. A huge margin is needed, otherwise it will face the risk of \"liquidation\", which may directly lead to European energy giants falling into a liquidity crisis or even bankruptcy. Finland's economy minister warned that the current European energy market has all the elements of the 2008 \"Lehman crisis\".</p><p><b>Faced with the increasingly dangerous energy crisis, European ministers will discuss \"extreme measures\" on September 9th to deal with the \"Lehman crisis\" of European energy, including setting a single-day upper limit on natural gas prices and suspending power derivatives trading.</b></p><p>At the same time, the global exchange rate market has also set off a storm. Among them, the depreciation momentum of European currencies is particularly fierce. In the early trading of the Asian market on September 5, the euro once fell to 0.9878 against the US dollar, falling below 0.99 for the first time in 20 years; The pound once fell to 1.14435 against the US dollar, the lowest price since 1985. European asset managers believe that the pound may fall to a 1: 1 level against the US dollar in 2023 for the first time in more than 200 years.</p><p>At present, another red flag facing financial markets is that real interest rates in the United States are soaring rapidly. According to Bloomberg data, short-term real interest rates in the United States have continued to rise since September this year, once jumping to the highest level since March 2020. It means that the period of cheap money in the United States is coming to an end, and the financial environment has obviously tightened.</p><p><b>Europe's \"Lehman Moment\"</b></p><p>In the face of Russia's \"ultimate killing move\", Europe is brewing \"extreme measures\".</p><p>After Russia announced that the \"Nord Stream 1\" gas pipeline would stop operating indefinitely, the European energy market, the euro, and European stock markets are all facing severe tests.</p><p>Among them, the crisis in the European energy market is particularly severe, and the alarm of the \"Lehman crisis\" has been completely sounded. On September 5, local time, the price of near-month natural gas futures in the Netherlands, the European benchmark, soared by more than 32%, the largest single-day increase in the past six months, and also pushed up European electricity prices.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4931d06bf94e1ae83ed893e7a63e57b1\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"893\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>At present, the European market is worried that if the price of natural gas continues to soar, the additional margin (Margin Call) required by European energy traders will be further pushed up, resulting in explosive growth, which may directly lead to the liquidity crisis or even bankruptcy of European energy giants, which in turn spread to the entire European economy and eventually led to the \"Lehman Crisis\" of the energy industry.</p><p>Finnish Economy Minister Mika Lintilä warned at a press conference that the energy market now has all the ingredients of the 2008 \"Lehman crisis\".</p><p>Faced with the increasingly dangerous energy crisis, European ministers will discuss \"extreme measures\" on September 9th (this Friday) to deal with the \"Lehman crisis\" of European energy, including setting a single-day upper limit on natural gas prices, suspending power derivatives trading, reducing electricity demand and setting price caps on renewable energy, nuclear energy and coal.</p><p><b>Among them, the EU's planned suspension of power derivatives trading, also known as \"unplugging the network cable\", has aroused strong concern and heated discussion in the market.</b></p><p>It should be pointed out that European electricity suppliers generally establish short positions in the futures market as a hedge before selling electricity. If electricity prices rise, losses on short positions are offset, and vice versa.</p><p>Since 2022, the European electricity market has fluctuated violently. Most traders have suffered heavy losses in hedging transactions and have been forced to pay huge margins, otherwise they will face the risk of \"liquidation\". Denmark<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/0NVC.UK\">Danske Bank</a>Chief credit analyst Jakob Magnussen also said that Margin Call is showing explosive growth.</p><p>Currently, large European utilities have to tie billions of euros of collateral to exchanges in order to solve the funding crisis. A European trader warned that the amount of cash needed by the current market is reaching unbelievable levels.</p><p>A power industry executive warned that in the face of liquidity problems, not only small companies, but even large power suppliers will collapse within days.</p><p>At present, European countries are urgently introducing rescue measures. Among them, Germany announced a rescue plan worth about 65 billion euros last Sunday; Finland said it would implement a $10 billion plan to stabilize the electricity market; Sweden also announced that it would provide US $23 billion in emergency reserve funds for power companies to avoid a broader financial crisis.</p><p><b>According to a draft document, the Czech Republic, which holds the EU's rotating presidency, will include these tools in a list of emergency intervention options at a meeting of energy ministers on Friday. In addition, emergency liquidity support for businesses facing high margin requirements will also be discussed at the meeting, the document shows.</b></p><p><b>The foreign exchange market is not calm either</b></p><p>As the haze enveloped the European market, on September 5, local time, the collective open low of European stock markets went lower. As of the close of the day, the Eurozone Stoxx 50 index closed down 1.53%, auto stocks fell nearly 5% to lead the decline, and German and Italian stock indexes both fell sharply. More than 2%, French stocks fell more than 1%, and only British stocks turned up slightly.</p><p>At the same time, the global exchange rate market has also set off a storm.</p><p>Among them, the depreciation momentum of European currencies is particularly fierce. In the early trading of the Asian market on September 5, the euro once fell to 0.9878 against the US dollar, falling below 0.99 for the first time in 20 years; The pound also fell to 1.14435 against the US dollar, the lowest price since 1985. Subsequently, British Foreign Secretary Truss was elected as the leader of the country's Conservative Party and was about to become prime minister. The pound rebounded against the US dollar and turned higher, returning to above the 1.15 mark.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7c87e0c9fe7b61ba803cd41750626852\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"883\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/DB\">Deutsche Bank</a>It warned that the risk of a \"pound crisis\" should not be underestimated. Increased uncertainty in political, trade and economic policies will further confuse the macroeconomic situation and weaken investor confidence. At present, the market expects that after the euro falls below the 1: 1 parity mark against the US dollar, the market may further witness the pound falling below the 1: 1 parity against the US dollar.</p><p>It is worth mentioning that GBP/USD is the oldest trading currency pair in the world. In more than 200 years of trading history, the quotation of GBP has never fallen below US $1. The most dangerous moment was 1985, when it once fell to US $1.05. Subsequently, the world's largest economies signed the Plaza Accord, which joined forces to depress the dollar.</p><p><b>Analysts pointed out that the main reason for the continued decline of the pound is closely related to the British economic situation. In the second quarter of this year, the British GDP fell by 0.1% month-on-month, and the economy fell into contraction.<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/GS\">Goldman Sachs</a>The UK's inflation rate could exceed 22pc next year due to climbing energy costs, warned, in one of the grim forecasts yet. The bank expects the UK economy to shrink by 3.4% in this scenario.</b></p><p>Mark Dowding, chief investment officer at asset manager BlueBay, said the sterling could fall to 1: 1 against the dollar in 2023, which will witness history again.</p><p>At the same time, the Asian exchange rate market has frequently sounded the alarm. Among them, the depreciation rate of the yen was particularly sharp. On September 5, the exchange rate of the yen against the US dollar officially fell below the psychological barrier of 140, hitting a new low since September 1998. Since the beginning of the year, the yen has fallen by 25%.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a2075c759a5153e62c18cd50029193ed\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"883\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>As the worst-performing G-10 currency this year, the decline of the yen reflects the growing policy divergence between the United States and Japan: the Federal Reserve keeps tightening liquidity rate hike, while the Bank of Japan has maintained loose policies to stimulate the economy.</p><p>Based on this, Goldman Sachs warned that after falling below the psychological barrier of 140, there are almost no obstacles to prevent the yen exchange rate from falling further. Considering that the Bank of Japan is likely to sit put, as long as the Federal Reserve continues to tighten policy, the exchange rate of USD/JPY may rise to 145 in three months due to widening spreads.</p><p>In addition, the options market also shows that traders are betting that the yen may fall further, pricing in favor of contracts that will pay off if the dollar continues to rise.</p><p><b>Red flags coming from America</b></p><p>At present, another red flag facing financial markets is that real interest rates in the United States are soaring rapidly.</p><p>According to Bloomberg data, short-term real interest rates in the United States have continued to rise since September this year, once jumping to the highest level since March 2020. Wall Street analysts pointed out that the period of cheap money in the United States is coming to an end, and the financial environment has obviously tightened.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e272d6f8bd9b0b20933c256e237dc9cb\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"613\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>The \"fuse\" for the sudden rise in real interest rates in the United States was a more-than-expected hawkish signal from Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell at the annual meeting of global central banks in Jackson Hole, saying that borrowing costs will need to rise and remain at levels that may limit economic growth. level to keep inflation down.</p><p>After this statement, the 10-year and 5-year real interest rates in the United States continued to rise. Goldman Sachs warned that the real yield of the current 10-year U.S. Treasury Bond is approaching a level that will severely restrict economic activity.</p><p>As we all know, the rise in real interest rates in the United States is a red flag for most financial assets, especially high-risk assets such as technology stocks and digital currencies. In addition, money markets other than the US dollar will also face the risk of capital outflow.</p><p>The recent performance of U.S. stocks has verified this point. Among them, the S&P 500 index continued to fall, falling below 4,000 points again, and the decline so far this year has exceeded 17%; The Nasdaq index, which is dominated by technology stocks, suffered a six-game losing streak, with a drop of 25.66% during the year.</p><p>For global markets, however, worse may be yet to come.</p><p>Goldman Sachs warned that the stock market will be ups and downs in the coming months, and if the trend of rising real yields and slowing economic growth continues, the stock market rises further.</p><p><b>The world's largest asset management company<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BLK\">BlackRock</a>Rick Rieder, chief investment officer of global fixed income business, believes that long-term U.S. yields may rise further, and the Federal Reserve is expected to rate hike by 75 basis points this month, which will be the third consecutive rate hike by the Federal Reserve of 75 basis points.</b></p><p>Swap trading data also shows that the market currently expects the Federal Reserve to continue to raise the benchmark interest rate by 75 basis points on September 21 and tighten policy until interest rates rise to around 3.8%. This means that there is still room for further upward movement in real interest rates in the United States.</p><p></body></html></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Emergency across the board! The \"liquidation\" alarm sounded, and the \"Lehman moment\" was staged again?</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nEmergency across the board! The \"liquidation\" alarm sounded, and the \"Lehman moment\" was staged again?\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/9\">\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/d482d56459984e8c86a6a137295b3c4f);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">券商中国 </p>\n<p class=\"h-time smaller\">2022-09-06 19:36</p>\n</div>\n</a>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><html><head></head><body>Europe is preparing for the \"worst\".</p><p>Currently, the \"Lehman crisis\" alarm in the European energy market has completely sounded. Affected by Russia's indefinite \"gas cut-off\", European natural gas futures prices soared by more than 32% on September 5, local time. At the same time, the European power market fluctuated violently, causing European power traders to suffer heavy losses in hedging transactions. A huge margin is needed, otherwise it will face the risk of \"liquidation\", which may directly lead to European energy giants falling into a liquidity crisis or even bankruptcy. Finland's economy minister warned that the current European energy market has all the elements of the 2008 \"Lehman crisis\".</p><p><b>Faced with the increasingly dangerous energy crisis, European ministers will discuss \"extreme measures\" on September 9th to deal with the \"Lehman crisis\" of European energy, including setting a single-day upper limit on natural gas prices and suspending power derivatives trading.</b></p><p>At the same time, the global exchange rate market has also set off a storm. Among them, the depreciation momentum of European currencies is particularly fierce. In the early trading of the Asian market on September 5, the euro once fell to 0.9878 against the US dollar, falling below 0.99 for the first time in 20 years; The pound once fell to 1.14435 against the US dollar, the lowest price since 1985. European asset managers believe that the pound may fall to a 1: 1 level against the US dollar in 2023 for the first time in more than 200 years.</p><p>At present, another red flag facing financial markets is that real interest rates in the United States are soaring rapidly. According to Bloomberg data, short-term real interest rates in the United States have continued to rise since September this year, once jumping to the highest level since March 2020. It means that the period of cheap money in the United States is coming to an end, and the financial environment has obviously tightened.</p><p><b>Europe's \"Lehman Moment\"</b></p><p>In the face of Russia's \"ultimate killing move\", Europe is brewing \"extreme measures\".</p><p>After Russia announced that the \"Nord Stream 1\" gas pipeline would stop operating indefinitely, the European energy market, the euro, and European stock markets are all facing severe tests.</p><p>Among them, the crisis in the European energy market is particularly severe, and the alarm of the \"Lehman crisis\" has been completely sounded. On September 5, local time, the price of near-month natural gas futures in the Netherlands, the European benchmark, soared by more than 32%, the largest single-day increase in the past six months, and also pushed up European electricity prices.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4931d06bf94e1ae83ed893e7a63e57b1\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"893\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>At present, the European market is worried that if the price of natural gas continues to soar, the additional margin (Margin Call) required by European energy traders will be further pushed up, resulting in explosive growth, which may directly lead to the liquidity crisis or even bankruptcy of European energy giants, which in turn spread to the entire European economy and eventually led to the \"Lehman Crisis\" of the energy industry.</p><p>Finnish Economy Minister Mika Lintilä warned at a press conference that the energy market now has all the ingredients of the 2008 \"Lehman crisis\".</p><p>Faced with the increasingly dangerous energy crisis, European ministers will discuss \"extreme measures\" on September 9th (this Friday) to deal with the \"Lehman crisis\" of European energy, including setting a single-day upper limit on natural gas prices, suspending power derivatives trading, reducing electricity demand and setting price caps on renewable energy, nuclear energy and coal.</p><p><b>Among them, the EU's planned suspension of power derivatives trading, also known as \"unplugging the network cable\", has aroused strong concern and heated discussion in the market.</b></p><p>It should be pointed out that European electricity suppliers generally establish short positions in the futures market as a hedge before selling electricity. If electricity prices rise, losses on short positions are offset, and vice versa.</p><p>Since 2022, the European electricity market has fluctuated violently. Most traders have suffered heavy losses in hedging transactions and have been forced to pay huge margins, otherwise they will face the risk of \"liquidation\". Denmark<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/0NVC.UK\">Danske Bank</a>Chief credit analyst Jakob Magnussen also said that Margin Call is showing explosive growth.</p><p>Currently, large European utilities have to tie billions of euros of collateral to exchanges in order to solve the funding crisis. A European trader warned that the amount of cash needed by the current market is reaching unbelievable levels.</p><p>A power industry executive warned that in the face of liquidity problems, not only small companies, but even large power suppliers will collapse within days.</p><p>At present, European countries are urgently introducing rescue measures. Among them, Germany announced a rescue plan worth about 65 billion euros last Sunday; Finland said it would implement a $10 billion plan to stabilize the electricity market; Sweden also announced that it would provide US $23 billion in emergency reserve funds for power companies to avoid a broader financial crisis.</p><p><b>According to a draft document, the Czech Republic, which holds the EU's rotating presidency, will include these tools in a list of emergency intervention options at a meeting of energy ministers on Friday. In addition, emergency liquidity support for businesses facing high margin requirements will also be discussed at the meeting, the document shows.</b></p><p><b>The foreign exchange market is not calm either</b></p><p>As the haze enveloped the European market, on September 5, local time, the collective open low of European stock markets went lower. As of the close of the day, the Eurozone Stoxx 50 index closed down 1.53%, auto stocks fell nearly 5% to lead the decline, and German and Italian stock indexes both fell sharply. More than 2%, French stocks fell more than 1%, and only British stocks turned up slightly.</p><p>At the same time, the global exchange rate market has also set off a storm.</p><p>Among them, the depreciation momentum of European currencies is particularly fierce. In the early trading of the Asian market on September 5, the euro once fell to 0.9878 against the US dollar, falling below 0.99 for the first time in 20 years; The pound also fell to 1.14435 against the US dollar, the lowest price since 1985. Subsequently, British Foreign Secretary Truss was elected as the leader of the country's Conservative Party and was about to become prime minister. The pound rebounded against the US dollar and turned higher, returning to above the 1.15 mark.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7c87e0c9fe7b61ba803cd41750626852\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"883\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/DB\">Deutsche Bank</a>It warned that the risk of a \"pound crisis\" should not be underestimated. Increased uncertainty in political, trade and economic policies will further confuse the macroeconomic situation and weaken investor confidence. At present, the market expects that after the euro falls below the 1: 1 parity mark against the US dollar, the market may further witness the pound falling below the 1: 1 parity against the US dollar.</p><p>It is worth mentioning that GBP/USD is the oldest trading currency pair in the world. In more than 200 years of trading history, the quotation of GBP has never fallen below US $1. The most dangerous moment was 1985, when it once fell to US $1.05. Subsequently, the world's largest economies signed the Plaza Accord, which joined forces to depress the dollar.</p><p><b>Analysts pointed out that the main reason for the continued decline of the pound is closely related to the British economic situation. In the second quarter of this year, the British GDP fell by 0.1% month-on-month, and the economy fell into contraction.<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/GS\">Goldman Sachs</a>The UK's inflation rate could exceed 22pc next year due to climbing energy costs, warned, in one of the grim forecasts yet. The bank expects the UK economy to shrink by 3.4% in this scenario.</b></p><p>Mark Dowding, chief investment officer at asset manager BlueBay, said the sterling could fall to 1: 1 against the dollar in 2023, which will witness history again.</p><p>At the same time, the Asian exchange rate market has frequently sounded the alarm. Among them, the depreciation rate of the yen was particularly sharp. On September 5, the exchange rate of the yen against the US dollar officially fell below the psychological barrier of 140, hitting a new low since September 1998. Since the beginning of the year, the yen has fallen by 25%.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a2075c759a5153e62c18cd50029193ed\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"883\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>As the worst-performing G-10 currency this year, the decline of the yen reflects the growing policy divergence between the United States and Japan: the Federal Reserve keeps tightening liquidity rate hike, while the Bank of Japan has maintained loose policies to stimulate the economy.</p><p>Based on this, Goldman Sachs warned that after falling below the psychological barrier of 140, there are almost no obstacles to prevent the yen exchange rate from falling further. Considering that the Bank of Japan is likely to sit put, as long as the Federal Reserve continues to tighten policy, the exchange rate of USD/JPY may rise to 145 in three months due to widening spreads.</p><p>In addition, the options market also shows that traders are betting that the yen may fall further, pricing in favor of contracts that will pay off if the dollar continues to rise.</p><p><b>Red flags coming from America</b></p><p>At present, another red flag facing financial markets is that real interest rates in the United States are soaring rapidly.</p><p>According to Bloomberg data, short-term real interest rates in the United States have continued to rise since September this year, once jumping to the highest level since March 2020. Wall Street analysts pointed out that the period of cheap money in the United States is coming to an end, and the financial environment has obviously tightened.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e272d6f8bd9b0b20933c256e237dc9cb\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"613\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>The \"fuse\" for the sudden rise in real interest rates in the United States was a more-than-expected hawkish signal from Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell at the annual meeting of global central banks in Jackson Hole, saying that borrowing costs will need to rise and remain at levels that may limit economic growth. level to keep inflation down.</p><p>After this statement, the 10-year and 5-year real interest rates in the United States continued to rise. Goldman Sachs warned that the real yield of the current 10-year U.S. Treasury Bond is approaching a level that will severely restrict economic activity.</p><p>As we all know, the rise in real interest rates in the United States is a red flag for most financial assets, especially high-risk assets such as technology stocks and digital currencies. In addition, money markets other than the US dollar will also face the risk of capital outflow.</p><p>The recent performance of U.S. stocks has verified this point. Among them, the S&P 500 index continued to fall, falling below 4,000 points again, and the decline so far this year has exceeded 17%; The Nasdaq index, which is dominated by technology stocks, suffered a six-game losing streak, with a drop of 25.66% during the year.</p><p>For global markets, however, worse may be yet to come.</p><p>Goldman Sachs warned that the stock market will be ups and downs in the coming months, and if the trend of rising real yields and slowing economic growth continues, the stock market rises further.</p><p><b>The world's largest asset management company<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BLK\">BlackRock</a>Rick Rieder, chief investment officer of global fixed income business, believes that long-term U.S. yields may rise further, and the Federal Reserve is expected to rate hike by 75 basis points this month, which will be the third consecutive rate hike by the Federal Reserve of 75 basis points.</b></p><p>Swap trading data also shows that the market currently expects the Federal Reserve to continue to raise the benchmark interest rate by 75 basis points on September 21 and tighten policy until interest rates rise to around 3.8%. This means that there is still room for further upward movement in real interest rates in the United States.</p><p></body></html></p>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ec2141823eaa4967f84c1f3e5ec737c7","relate_stocks":{"VGK":"MSCI欧洲ETF-Vanguard"},"source_url":"","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1106602414","content_text":"欧洲正在做“最坏”的打算。当前,欧洲能源市场的“雷曼危机”警报彻底拉响。受俄罗斯无限期“断气”影响,当地时间9月5日,欧洲天然气期货价格一度飙涨超32%,与此同时,欧洲电力市场波动剧烈,导致欧洲电力交易商的对冲交易损失惨重,需要追加巨额保证金,否则将面临“爆仓”风险,有可能直接导致欧洲能源巨头陷入流动性危机甚至破产倒闭。芬兰经济部长警告,现在的欧洲能源市场具备了2008年“雷曼危机”的所有要素。面对愈发危险的能源危机,欧洲各国部长将在9月9日讨论“极端措施”来应对欧洲能源的“雷曼危机”,其中包括,设置天然气价格单日涨跌幅上限、暂停电力衍生品交易等。与此同时,全球汇率市场也掀起了一场风暴。其中,欧洲货币的贬值势头尤为凶猛,9月5日亚市早盘,欧元兑美元一度贬至0.9878,为20年来首次跌破0.99;英镑兑美元一度跌至1.14435,创下1985年来最低价位。欧洲资管人士认为,2023年英镑兑美元可能会跌至1:1的水平,将是200多年以来的第一次。当前,金融市场面临的另一个危险信号是,美国实际利率正快速飙升。据彭博社数据显示,今年9月以来,美国短期实际利率持续攀升,一度跃升至2020年3月以来的最高水平。意味着,美国廉价货币的时期走向结束,金融环境明显收紧。欧洲的“雷曼时刻”面对俄罗斯的“终极杀招”,欧洲正在酝酿“极端措施”。俄罗斯宣布“北溪1号”输气管道无限期停止运行后,欧洲能源市场、欧元、欧洲股市均面临严峻考验。其中,欧洲能源市场的危机尤为严峻,“雷曼危机”的警报彻底拉响。当地时间9月5日,作为欧洲基准的荷兰近月天然气期货价格一度飙涨超32%,创近6个月来的最大单日涨幅,同时也推动欧洲的电力价格上涨。当前,欧洲市场正在担忧,如果天然气价格继续飙升,欧洲能源交易商需要追加的保证金(Margin Call)将被进一步推高,造成爆炸式增长,有可能直接导致欧洲能源巨头陷入流动性危机甚至破产倒闭,进而波及整个欧洲经济,最终酿成能源业的“雷曼危机”。芬兰经济部长Mika Lintilä在新闻发布会上警告称,现在的能源市场具备了2008年“雷曼危机”的所有要素。面对愈发危险的能源危机,欧洲各国部长将在9月9日(本周五)讨论“极端措施”来应对欧洲能源的“雷曼危机”,其中包括,设置天然气价格单日涨跌幅上限、暂停电力衍生品交易,还包括减少电力需求和对可再生能源、核能和煤炭设置价格上限等。其中,欧盟计划中的暂停电力衍生品交易,也就是所谓的“拔网线”,引发市场强烈关注与热议。需要指出的是,欧洲电力供应商在出售电力前,一般会在期货市场上建立空头头寸作为对冲。如果电价上涨,空头头寸的损失会被抵消,反之亦然。2022年以来,欧洲电力市场的波动剧烈,大部分交易商的对冲交易都损失惨重,被迫需要缴纳巨额保证金,不然将面临“爆仓”风险。丹麦丹斯克银行首席信用分析师Jakob Magnussen也称,追缴保证金(Margin Call)正呈现出爆炸式增长态势。当前,欧洲大型公用事业公司为了解决资金危机,不得不将数十亿欧元的抵押品与交易所捆绑在一起。一位欧洲交易员警告称,当前市场所需的现金量正达到不可思议的水平。一位电力行业高管警告称,面对流动性问题,不仅仅是小型公司,甚至是大型电力供应商也会在数日之内崩塌。当前,欧洲各国正在紧急出台救助措施。其中,德国于上周日公布了一项价值约650亿欧元的救助计划;芬兰表示,将实施一项100亿美元的计划稳定电力市场;瑞典也宣布为电力企业提供230亿美元的紧急后备资金,以避免出现更广泛的金融危机。据一份文件草案,欧盟轮值主席国捷克将在周五的能源部长会议上将这些工具列入一份紧急干预选项清单。此外,该文件显示,会议上还将讨论为面临高额保证金要求的企业提供紧急流动性支持。外汇市场也不平静由于阴霾笼罩欧洲市场,当地时间9月5日,欧洲股市集体低开低走,截至当日收盘,欧元区Stoxx 50指数收跌1.53%,汽车股跌近5%领跌,德、意股指均大跌超2%,法股跌超1%,仅英股小幅转涨。与此同时,全球汇率市场也掀起了一场风暴。其中,欧洲货币的贬值势头尤为凶猛,9月5日亚市早盘,欧元兑美元一度贬至0.9878,为20年来首次跌破0.99;英镑兑美元也一度跌至1.14435,创下1985年来最低价位。随后,英国外交大臣特拉斯当选该国保守党党首,即将晋位首相,英镑兑美元反弹转涨,重回1.15关口上方。德意志银行警告称,不应低估“英镑危机”的风险,政治、贸易与经济政策不确定性的增加,,将进一步混淆宏观经济形势并削弱投资者信心。当前市场预期,继欧元兑美元跌破1:1平价关口后,市场或将进一步见证英镑兑美元跌破1:1平价。值得一提的是,英镑兑美元是全球历史最悠久的交易货币对,在超过200年的交易历史中,英镑的报价从未跌破1美元,最危险时刻是1985年,一度跌至1.05美元。随后,世界最大的经济体签订了广场协议,联手压低了美元。分析人士指出,英镑持续走低的主要原因与英国经济形势密切相关,今年二季度,英国GDP环比下滑0.1%,经济陷入萎缩。高盛警告称,由于能源成本不断攀升,英国明年的通胀率可能会超过22%,这是迄今为止最严峻的预测之一。该行预计,在这种情况下,英国经济将萎缩3.4%。资产管理公司BlueBay的首席投资官Mark Dowding表示,2023年英镑兑美元可能会跌至1:1的水平,将再次见证历史。与此同时,亚洲汇率市场也频频拉响警报。其中,日元的贬值速度尤为剧烈,9月5日,日元兑美元汇率正式跌破140心理关口,创1998年9月以来新低。自年初以来,日元累计跌幅达25%。作为今年表现最差的G-10货币,日元下跌反映了美日之间越来越大的政策分化:美联储不断加息收紧流动性,而日本央行却一直维持宽松政策以刺激经济。基于此,高盛警告称,在跌破140心理关口后,阻止日元汇率进一步下跌的障碍几乎不存在。考虑到日本央行可能按兵不动,只要美联储继续政策收紧,美元兑日元汇率可能在三个月内因利差扩大而升至145。另外,期权市场也显示,交易员正在押注日元可能进一步下跌,定价偏向于美元继续走高会获得回报的合约。美国传来的危险信号当前,金融市场面临的另一个危险信号是,美国实际利率正快速飙升。据彭博社数据显示,今年9月以来,美国短期实际利率持续攀升,一度跃升至2020年3月以来的最高水平。华尔街分析人士指出,美国廉价货币的时期正在走向结束,金融环境明显收紧。美国实际利率突然走高的“导火索”是,美联储主席鲍威尔在杰克逊霍尔全球央行年会上发出了超预期的鹰派信号,他表示,借贷成本将需要上升,并保持在可能限制经济增长的水平,以压低通胀。这番表态后,美国10年期、5年期实际利率持续攀升,高盛警告称,当前10年期美国国债的实际收益率,正在接近会严重限制经济活动的水平。众所周知,美国实际利率走高,对绝大部分金融资产而言都是危险信号,科技股、数字货币等高风险资产尤为敏感。另外,美元以外的货币市场也都将面临资金外流的风险。近期美股的表现便验证了这一点,其中,标普500指数持续走低,再度跌破4000点,今年迄今跌幅已超17%;以科技股为主的纳斯达克指数更是遭遇6连跌,年内跌幅达25.66%。然而对于全球市场而言,更糟的可能还在后面。高盛警告称,未来几个月股市将起伏不定,如果实际收益率上升和经济增长减速的态势持续下去,股市有进一步下跌的风险。全球最大资管公司贝莱德全球固定收益业务首席投资官Rick Rieder认为,美国长期收益率可能进一步上升,预计美联储本月将加息75个基点,这将是美联储连续第三次加息75个基点。掉期交易数据也显示,目前市场预计美联储将在9月21日继续将基准利率上调75个基点,并收紧政策直至利率升至3.8%左右的水平。这意味着,美国实际利率还有进一步上行的空间。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"VGK":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1233,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9021077528,"gmtCreate":1652996563664,"gmtModify":1676535201567,"author":{"id":"3577118447514075","authorId":"3577118447514075","name":"V你好","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3577118447514075","idStr":"3577118447514075"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"😁😁","listText":"😁😁","text":"😁😁","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9021077528","repostId":"9082719058","repostType":1,"repost":{"id":9082719058,"gmtCreate":1650600180791,"gmtModify":1676534761912,"author":{"id":"9000000000000725","authorId":"9000000000000725","name":"AfraSimon","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/46d30a827da942c1b0307f51e832534e","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"9000000000000725","idStr":"9000000000000725"},"themes":[],"title":"7 Biggest Bargain Stocks to Buy Before They Rebound","htmlText":"Petrobras<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/PBR\">$Petroleo Brasileiro SA Petrobras(PBR)$</a> (PBR) — Its low breakeven and consistent earnings displays could see it re-ignite its previous growth. Euroseas<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/ESEA\">$Euroseas(ESEA)$</a> (ESEA) — Global dry bulk restructuring could see its vessels be in high demand. Bank of America<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BAC\">$Bank of America(BAC)$</a> (BAC) — A near 20% stock sell-off is unwarranted as its interest-bearing operations could catch up soon. ARMOUR Residential REIT<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/ARR\">$ARMOUR Residential REIT Inc(ARR)$</a> (ARR) — Diversified MBS activities could sustain ARMOUR’s massive 15.08% dividend yield. Canadian Solar(CSIQ) <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/CSIQ\">$Canadian Solar(CSIQ)$</a> — Underappre","listText":"Petrobras<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/PBR\">$Petroleo Brasileiro SA Petrobras(PBR)$</a> (PBR) — Its low breakeven and consistent earnings displays could see it re-ignite its previous growth. Euroseas<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/ESEA\">$Euroseas(ESEA)$</a> (ESEA) — Global dry bulk restructuring could see its vessels be in high demand. Bank of America<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BAC\">$Bank of America(BAC)$</a> (BAC) — A near 20% stock sell-off is unwarranted as its interest-bearing operations could catch up soon. ARMOUR Residential REIT<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/ARR\">$ARMOUR Residential REIT Inc(ARR)$</a> (ARR) — Diversified MBS activities could sustain ARMOUR’s massive 15.08% dividend yield. Canadian Solar(CSIQ) <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/CSIQ\">$Canadian Solar(CSIQ)$</a> — Underappre","text":"Petrobras$Petroleo Brasileiro SA Petrobras(PBR)$ (PBR) — Its low breakeven and consistent earnings displays could see it re-ignite its previous growth. Euroseas$Euroseas(ESEA)$ (ESEA) — Global dry bulk restructuring could see its vessels be in high demand. Bank of America$Bank of America(BAC)$ (BAC) — A near 20% stock sell-off is unwarranted as its interest-bearing operations could catch up soon. ARMOUR Residential REIT$ARMOUR Residential REIT Inc(ARR)$ (ARR) — Diversified MBS activities could sustain ARMOUR’s massive 15.08% dividend yield. Canadian Solar(CSIQ) $Canadian Solar(CSIQ)$ — Underappre","images":[{"img":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/28a84aa166dfe2e7c993abca31ae8e11","width":"-1","height":"-1"},{"img":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/a608450f31aa03b404f0d38788a86ac8","width":"-1","height":"-1"},{"img":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/d429c296a3d80c06071f83c2da0021c9","width":"-1","height":"-1"}],"top":1,"highlighted":2,"essential":1,"paper":2,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9082719058","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":0,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":8,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1220,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9098962410,"gmtCreate":1644011441576,"gmtModify":1676533880527,"author":{"id":"3577118447514075","authorId":"3577118447514075","name":"V你好","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3577118447514075","idStr":"3577118447514075"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"✌✌","listText":"✌✌","text":"✌✌","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9098962410","repostId":"695012724","repostType":1,"repost":{"id":695012724,"gmtCreate":1641265859115,"gmtModify":1676532521786,"author":{"id":"4089270275521270","authorId":"4089270275521270","name":"凉生凉姜生暖","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b32a866ba598a672fb97286e7663e40d","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"4089270275521270","idStr":"4089270275521270"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"1998年,巴菲特在佛羅里達大學商學院做了一場超有內涵的演講,這次演講後來被稱爲是巴菲特一生中最經典的演講,沒有之一。段永平強烈推薦這次的演講內容,據說已經看了10遍。“請各位提問時一定要刁鑽,你們問的問題越難,才越好玩。”值得一提的是,近一個半小時的演講中,巴菲特本人並沒有長篇大論,而是把大部分時間交給了現場的同學,讓他們提出自己最爲關心的問題。“您喜歡什麼樣的公司?”“到底該花多少錢買一家公司?”“能否講講您在商業中犯的錯誤?”一個個犀利的問題並沒有難倒這位“股神”,他既幽默風趣的回答了學生們的提問,又藉着問題深入剖析了自己的選股標準、組合構建和思維方式。黃崢此前說過,“我發現巴菲特講的東西其實特別簡單,連我母親都能聽懂。常識顯而易見、容易理解,但我們因爲成長、學習形成的偏見和個人利益的訴求矇蔽了我們。”如黃崢所言,巴菲特極其擅長把重要的投資哲理用非常通俗易懂的比喻來告訴大家,二十年前便是如此,一個個生動的案例加上形象化的表達,讓這場演講成爲經典中的經典,今天重溫下來,依然極具啓迪意義。演講原文較長,我們從中整理了40條精華內容摘編成文,涉及投資理念、生意判斷以及對年輕人的希冀,相信讀後一定會對你有所啓發。01、別做安全邊際以外的事01.假設你遞給我一把槍,裏面有1000個彈倉、100萬個彈倉,其中只有一個彈倉裏有一顆子彈,你說:“把槍對準你的太陽穴,扣一下扳機,你要多少錢?”我不幹。你給我多少錢,我都不幹。要是我贏了,我不需要那些錢;要是我輸了,結果不用說了。這樣的事,我一點都不想做,但是在金融領域,人們經常做這樣的事,都不經過大腦。02.假設年初你有1億美元,如果不上槓杆,能賺10%,上槓杆的成功率是99%,能賺20%,年末時你有1.1億美元,還是1.2億美元,有區別嗎?沒一點區別。要是年末你死了,寫訃告的人可能有個筆誤,雖然你有1.2億,但他寫成了1.1億。多賺的","listText":"1998年,巴菲特在佛羅里達大學商學院做了一場超有內涵的演講,這次演講後來被稱爲是巴菲特一生中最經典的演講,沒有之一。段永平強烈推薦這次的演講內容,據說已經看了10遍。“請各位提問時一定要刁鑽,你們問的問題越難,才越好玩。”值得一提的是,近一個半小時的演講中,巴菲特本人並沒有長篇大論,而是把大部分時間交給了現場的同學,讓他們提出自己最爲關心的問題。“您喜歡什麼樣的公司?”“到底該花多少錢買一家公司?”“能否講講您在商業中犯的錯誤?”一個個犀利的問題並沒有難倒這位“股神”,他既幽默風趣的回答了學生們的提問,又藉着問題深入剖析了自己的選股標準、組合構建和思維方式。黃崢此前說過,“我發現巴菲特講的東西其實特別簡單,連我母親都能聽懂。常識顯而易見、容易理解,但我們因爲成長、學習形成的偏見和個人利益的訴求矇蔽了我們。”如黃崢所言,巴菲特極其擅長把重要的投資哲理用非常通俗易懂的比喻來告訴大家,二十年前便是如此,一個個生動的案例加上形象化的表達,讓這場演講成爲經典中的經典,今天重溫下來,依然極具啓迪意義。演講原文較長,我們從中整理了40條精華內容摘編成文,涉及投資理念、生意判斷以及對年輕人的希冀,相信讀後一定會對你有所啓發。01、別做安全邊際以外的事01.假設你遞給我一把槍,裏面有1000個彈倉、100萬個彈倉,其中只有一個彈倉裏有一顆子彈,你說:“把槍對準你的太陽穴,扣一下扳機,你要多少錢?”我不幹。你給我多少錢,我都不幹。要是我贏了,我不需要那些錢;要是我輸了,結果不用說了。這樣的事,我一點都不想做,但是在金融領域,人們經常做這樣的事,都不經過大腦。02.假設年初你有1億美元,如果不上槓杆,能賺10%,上槓杆的成功率是99%,能賺20%,年末時你有1.1億美元,還是1.2億美元,有區別嗎?沒一點區別。要是年末你死了,寫訃告的人可能有個筆誤,雖然你有1.2億,但他寫成了1.1億。多賺的","text":"1998年,巴菲特在佛羅里達大學商學院做了一場超有內涵的演講,這次演講後來被稱爲是巴菲特一生中最經典的演講,沒有之一。段永平強烈推薦這次的演講內容,據說已經看了10遍。“請各位提問時一定要刁鑽,你們問的問題越難,才越好玩。”值得一提的是,近一個半小時的演講中,巴菲特本人並沒有長篇大論,而是把大部分時間交給了現場的同學,讓他們提出自己最爲關心的問題。“您喜歡什麼樣的公司?”“到底該花多少錢買一家公司?”“能否講講您在商業中犯的錯誤?”一個個犀利的問題並沒有難倒這位“股神”,他既幽默風趣的回答了學生們的提問,又藉着問題深入剖析了自己的選股標準、組合構建和思維方式。黃崢此前說過,“我發現巴菲特講的東西其實特別簡單,連我母親都能聽懂。常識顯而易見、容易理解,但我們因爲成長、學習形成的偏見和個人利益的訴求矇蔽了我們。”如黃崢所言,巴菲特極其擅長把重要的投資哲理用非常通俗易懂的比喻來告訴大家,二十年前便是如此,一個個生動的案例加上形象化的表達,讓這場演講成爲經典中的經典,今天重溫下來,依然極具啓迪意義。演講原文較長,我們從中整理了40條精華內容摘編成文,涉及投資理念、生意判斷以及對年輕人的希冀,相信讀後一定會對你有所啓發。01、別做安全邊際以外的事01.假設你遞給我一把槍,裏面有1000個彈倉、100萬個彈倉,其中只有一個彈倉裏有一顆子彈,你說:“把槍對準你的太陽穴,扣一下扳機,你要多少錢?”我不幹。你給我多少錢,我都不幹。要是我贏了,我不需要那些錢;要是我輸了,結果不用說了。這樣的事,我一點都不想做,但是在金融領域,人們經常做這樣的事,都不經過大腦。02.假設年初你有1億美元,如果不上槓杆,能賺10%,上槓杆的成功率是99%,能賺20%,年末時你有1.1億美元,還是1.2億美元,有區別嗎?沒一點區別。要是年末你死了,寫訃告的人可能有個筆誤,雖然你有1.2億,但他寫成了1.1億。多賺的","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/695012724","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":0,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1681,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0}],"hots":[{"id":9931227413,"gmtCreate":1662471007032,"gmtModify":1676537067325,"author":{"id":"3577118447514075","authorId":"3577118447514075","name":"V你好","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3577118447514075","idStr":"3577118447514075"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"🤔","listText":"🤔","text":"🤔","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9931227413","repostId":"1106602414","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1106602414","kind":"news","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"致力于提供最及时的财经资讯,最专业的解读分析,覆盖宏观经济、金融机构、A股市场、上市公司、投资理财等财经领域。","home_visible":1,"media_name":"券商中国","id":"9","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d482d56459984e8c86a6a137295b3c4f"},"pubTimestamp":1662464212,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1106602414?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2022-09-06 19:36","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"Emergency across the board! The \"liquidation\" alarm sounded, and the \"Lehman moment\" was staged again?","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1106602414","media":"券商中国","summary":"面对俄罗斯的“终极杀招”,欧洲正在酝酿“极端措施”。","content":"<p><html><head></head><body>Europe is preparing for the \"worst\".</p><p>Currently, the \"Lehman crisis\" alarm in the European energy market has completely sounded. Affected by Russia's indefinite \"gas cut-off\", European natural gas futures prices soared by more than 32% on September 5, local time. At the same time, the European power market fluctuated violently, causing European power traders to suffer heavy losses in hedging transactions. A huge margin is needed, otherwise it will face the risk of \"liquidation\", which may directly lead to European energy giants falling into a liquidity crisis or even bankruptcy. Finland's economy minister warned that the current European energy market has all the elements of the 2008 \"Lehman crisis\".</p><p><b>Faced with the increasingly dangerous energy crisis, European ministers will discuss \"extreme measures\" on September 9th to deal with the \"Lehman crisis\" of European energy, including setting a single-day upper limit on natural gas prices and suspending power derivatives trading.</b></p><p>At the same time, the global exchange rate market has also set off a storm. Among them, the depreciation momentum of European currencies is particularly fierce. In the early trading of the Asian market on September 5, the euro once fell to 0.9878 against the US dollar, falling below 0.99 for the first time in 20 years; The pound once fell to 1.14435 against the US dollar, the lowest price since 1985. European asset managers believe that the pound may fall to a 1: 1 level against the US dollar in 2023 for the first time in more than 200 years.</p><p>At present, another red flag facing financial markets is that real interest rates in the United States are soaring rapidly. According to Bloomberg data, short-term real interest rates in the United States have continued to rise since September this year, once jumping to the highest level since March 2020. It means that the period of cheap money in the United States is coming to an end, and the financial environment has obviously tightened.</p><p><b>Europe's \"Lehman Moment\"</b></p><p>In the face of Russia's \"ultimate killing move\", Europe is brewing \"extreme measures\".</p><p>After Russia announced that the \"Nord Stream 1\" gas pipeline would stop operating indefinitely, the European energy market, the euro, and European stock markets are all facing severe tests.</p><p>Among them, the crisis in the European energy market is particularly severe, and the alarm of the \"Lehman crisis\" has been completely sounded. On September 5, local time, the price of near-month natural gas futures in the Netherlands, the European benchmark, soared by more than 32%, the largest single-day increase in the past six months, and also pushed up European electricity prices.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4931d06bf94e1ae83ed893e7a63e57b1\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"893\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>At present, the European market is worried that if the price of natural gas continues to soar, the additional margin (Margin Call) required by European energy traders will be further pushed up, resulting in explosive growth, which may directly lead to the liquidity crisis or even bankruptcy of European energy giants, which in turn spread to the entire European economy and eventually led to the \"Lehman Crisis\" of the energy industry.</p><p>Finnish Economy Minister Mika Lintilä warned at a press conference that the energy market now has all the ingredients of the 2008 \"Lehman crisis\".</p><p>Faced with the increasingly dangerous energy crisis, European ministers will discuss \"extreme measures\" on September 9th (this Friday) to deal with the \"Lehman crisis\" of European energy, including setting a single-day upper limit on natural gas prices, suspending power derivatives trading, reducing electricity demand and setting price caps on renewable energy, nuclear energy and coal.</p><p><b>Among them, the EU's planned suspension of power derivatives trading, also known as \"unplugging the network cable\", has aroused strong concern and heated discussion in the market.</b></p><p>It should be pointed out that European electricity suppliers generally establish short positions in the futures market as a hedge before selling electricity. If electricity prices rise, losses on short positions are offset, and vice versa.</p><p>Since 2022, the European electricity market has fluctuated violently. Most traders have suffered heavy losses in hedging transactions and have been forced to pay huge margins, otherwise they will face the risk of \"liquidation\". Denmark<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/0NVC.UK\">Danske Bank</a>Chief credit analyst Jakob Magnussen also said that Margin Call is showing explosive growth.</p><p>Currently, large European utilities have to tie billions of euros of collateral to exchanges in order to solve the funding crisis. A European trader warned that the amount of cash needed by the current market is reaching unbelievable levels.</p><p>A power industry executive warned that in the face of liquidity problems, not only small companies, but even large power suppliers will collapse within days.</p><p>At present, European countries are urgently introducing rescue measures. Among them, Germany announced a rescue plan worth about 65 billion euros last Sunday; Finland said it would implement a $10 billion plan to stabilize the electricity market; Sweden also announced that it would provide US $23 billion in emergency reserve funds for power companies to avoid a broader financial crisis.</p><p><b>According to a draft document, the Czech Republic, which holds the EU's rotating presidency, will include these tools in a list of emergency intervention options at a meeting of energy ministers on Friday. In addition, emergency liquidity support for businesses facing high margin requirements will also be discussed at the meeting, the document shows.</b></p><p><b>The foreign exchange market is not calm either</b></p><p>As the haze enveloped the European market, on September 5, local time, the collective open low of European stock markets went lower. As of the close of the day, the Eurozone Stoxx 50 index closed down 1.53%, auto stocks fell nearly 5% to lead the decline, and German and Italian stock indexes both fell sharply. More than 2%, French stocks fell more than 1%, and only British stocks turned up slightly.</p><p>At the same time, the global exchange rate market has also set off a storm.</p><p>Among them, the depreciation momentum of European currencies is particularly fierce. In the early trading of the Asian market on September 5, the euro once fell to 0.9878 against the US dollar, falling below 0.99 for the first time in 20 years; The pound also fell to 1.14435 against the US dollar, the lowest price since 1985. Subsequently, British Foreign Secretary Truss was elected as the leader of the country's Conservative Party and was about to become prime minister. The pound rebounded against the US dollar and turned higher, returning to above the 1.15 mark.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7c87e0c9fe7b61ba803cd41750626852\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"883\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/DB\">Deutsche Bank</a>It warned that the risk of a \"pound crisis\" should not be underestimated. Increased uncertainty in political, trade and economic policies will further confuse the macroeconomic situation and weaken investor confidence. At present, the market expects that after the euro falls below the 1: 1 parity mark against the US dollar, the market may further witness the pound falling below the 1: 1 parity against the US dollar.</p><p>It is worth mentioning that GBP/USD is the oldest trading currency pair in the world. In more than 200 years of trading history, the quotation of GBP has never fallen below US $1. The most dangerous moment was 1985, when it once fell to US $1.05. Subsequently, the world's largest economies signed the Plaza Accord, which joined forces to depress the dollar.</p><p><b>Analysts pointed out that the main reason for the continued decline of the pound is closely related to the British economic situation. In the second quarter of this year, the British GDP fell by 0.1% month-on-month, and the economy fell into contraction.<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/GS\">Goldman Sachs</a>The UK's inflation rate could exceed 22pc next year due to climbing energy costs, warned, in one of the grim forecasts yet. The bank expects the UK economy to shrink by 3.4% in this scenario.</b></p><p>Mark Dowding, chief investment officer at asset manager BlueBay, said the sterling could fall to 1: 1 against the dollar in 2023, which will witness history again.</p><p>At the same time, the Asian exchange rate market has frequently sounded the alarm. Among them, the depreciation rate of the yen was particularly sharp. On September 5, the exchange rate of the yen against the US dollar officially fell below the psychological barrier of 140, hitting a new low since September 1998. Since the beginning of the year, the yen has fallen by 25%.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a2075c759a5153e62c18cd50029193ed\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"883\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>As the worst-performing G-10 currency this year, the decline of the yen reflects the growing policy divergence between the United States and Japan: the Federal Reserve keeps tightening liquidity rate hike, while the Bank of Japan has maintained loose policies to stimulate the economy.</p><p>Based on this, Goldman Sachs warned that after falling below the psychological barrier of 140, there are almost no obstacles to prevent the yen exchange rate from falling further. Considering that the Bank of Japan is likely to sit put, as long as the Federal Reserve continues to tighten policy, the exchange rate of USD/JPY may rise to 145 in three months due to widening spreads.</p><p>In addition, the options market also shows that traders are betting that the yen may fall further, pricing in favor of contracts that will pay off if the dollar continues to rise.</p><p><b>Red flags coming from America</b></p><p>At present, another red flag facing financial markets is that real interest rates in the United States are soaring rapidly.</p><p>According to Bloomberg data, short-term real interest rates in the United States have continued to rise since September this year, once jumping to the highest level since March 2020. Wall Street analysts pointed out that the period of cheap money in the United States is coming to an end, and the financial environment has obviously tightened.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e272d6f8bd9b0b20933c256e237dc9cb\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"613\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>The \"fuse\" for the sudden rise in real interest rates in the United States was a more-than-expected hawkish signal from Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell at the annual meeting of global central banks in Jackson Hole, saying that borrowing costs will need to rise and remain at levels that may limit economic growth. level to keep inflation down.</p><p>After this statement, the 10-year and 5-year real interest rates in the United States continued to rise. Goldman Sachs warned that the real yield of the current 10-year U.S. Treasury Bond is approaching a level that will severely restrict economic activity.</p><p>As we all know, the rise in real interest rates in the United States is a red flag for most financial assets, especially high-risk assets such as technology stocks and digital currencies. In addition, money markets other than the US dollar will also face the risk of capital outflow.</p><p>The recent performance of U.S. stocks has verified this point. Among them, the S&P 500 index continued to fall, falling below 4,000 points again, and the decline so far this year has exceeded 17%; The Nasdaq index, which is dominated by technology stocks, suffered a six-game losing streak, with a drop of 25.66% during the year.</p><p>For global markets, however, worse may be yet to come.</p><p>Goldman Sachs warned that the stock market will be ups and downs in the coming months, and if the trend of rising real yields and slowing economic growth continues, the stock market rises further.</p><p><b>The world's largest asset management company<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BLK\">BlackRock</a>Rick Rieder, chief investment officer of global fixed income business, believes that long-term U.S. yields may rise further, and the Federal Reserve is expected to rate hike by 75 basis points this month, which will be the third consecutive rate hike by the Federal Reserve of 75 basis points.</b></p><p>Swap trading data also shows that the market currently expects the Federal Reserve to continue to raise the benchmark interest rate by 75 basis points on September 21 and tighten policy until interest rates rise to around 3.8%. This means that there is still room for further upward movement in real interest rates in the United States.</p><p></body></html></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Emergency across the board! The \"liquidation\" alarm sounded, and the \"Lehman moment\" was staged again?</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nEmergency across the board! The \"liquidation\" alarm sounded, and the \"Lehman moment\" was staged again?\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/9\">\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/d482d56459984e8c86a6a137295b3c4f);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">券商中国 </p>\n<p class=\"h-time smaller\">2022-09-06 19:36</p>\n</div>\n</a>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><html><head></head><body>Europe is preparing for the \"worst\".</p><p>Currently, the \"Lehman crisis\" alarm in the European energy market has completely sounded. Affected by Russia's indefinite \"gas cut-off\", European natural gas futures prices soared by more than 32% on September 5, local time. At the same time, the European power market fluctuated violently, causing European power traders to suffer heavy losses in hedging transactions. A huge margin is needed, otherwise it will face the risk of \"liquidation\", which may directly lead to European energy giants falling into a liquidity crisis or even bankruptcy. Finland's economy minister warned that the current European energy market has all the elements of the 2008 \"Lehman crisis\".</p><p><b>Faced with the increasingly dangerous energy crisis, European ministers will discuss \"extreme measures\" on September 9th to deal with the \"Lehman crisis\" of European energy, including setting a single-day upper limit on natural gas prices and suspending power derivatives trading.</b></p><p>At the same time, the global exchange rate market has also set off a storm. Among them, the depreciation momentum of European currencies is particularly fierce. In the early trading of the Asian market on September 5, the euro once fell to 0.9878 against the US dollar, falling below 0.99 for the first time in 20 years; The pound once fell to 1.14435 against the US dollar, the lowest price since 1985. European asset managers believe that the pound may fall to a 1: 1 level against the US dollar in 2023 for the first time in more than 200 years.</p><p>At present, another red flag facing financial markets is that real interest rates in the United States are soaring rapidly. According to Bloomberg data, short-term real interest rates in the United States have continued to rise since September this year, once jumping to the highest level since March 2020. It means that the period of cheap money in the United States is coming to an end, and the financial environment has obviously tightened.</p><p><b>Europe's \"Lehman Moment\"</b></p><p>In the face of Russia's \"ultimate killing move\", Europe is brewing \"extreme measures\".</p><p>After Russia announced that the \"Nord Stream 1\" gas pipeline would stop operating indefinitely, the European energy market, the euro, and European stock markets are all facing severe tests.</p><p>Among them, the crisis in the European energy market is particularly severe, and the alarm of the \"Lehman crisis\" has been completely sounded. On September 5, local time, the price of near-month natural gas futures in the Netherlands, the European benchmark, soared by more than 32%, the largest single-day increase in the past six months, and also pushed up European electricity prices.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4931d06bf94e1ae83ed893e7a63e57b1\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"893\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>At present, the European market is worried that if the price of natural gas continues to soar, the additional margin (Margin Call) required by European energy traders will be further pushed up, resulting in explosive growth, which may directly lead to the liquidity crisis or even bankruptcy of European energy giants, which in turn spread to the entire European economy and eventually led to the \"Lehman Crisis\" of the energy industry.</p><p>Finnish Economy Minister Mika Lintilä warned at a press conference that the energy market now has all the ingredients of the 2008 \"Lehman crisis\".</p><p>Faced with the increasingly dangerous energy crisis, European ministers will discuss \"extreme measures\" on September 9th (this Friday) to deal with the \"Lehman crisis\" of European energy, including setting a single-day upper limit on natural gas prices, suspending power derivatives trading, reducing electricity demand and setting price caps on renewable energy, nuclear energy and coal.</p><p><b>Among them, the EU's planned suspension of power derivatives trading, also known as \"unplugging the network cable\", has aroused strong concern and heated discussion in the market.</b></p><p>It should be pointed out that European electricity suppliers generally establish short positions in the futures market as a hedge before selling electricity. If electricity prices rise, losses on short positions are offset, and vice versa.</p><p>Since 2022, the European electricity market has fluctuated violently. Most traders have suffered heavy losses in hedging transactions and have been forced to pay huge margins, otherwise they will face the risk of \"liquidation\". Denmark<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/0NVC.UK\">Danske Bank</a>Chief credit analyst Jakob Magnussen also said that Margin Call is showing explosive growth.</p><p>Currently, large European utilities have to tie billions of euros of collateral to exchanges in order to solve the funding crisis. A European trader warned that the amount of cash needed by the current market is reaching unbelievable levels.</p><p>A power industry executive warned that in the face of liquidity problems, not only small companies, but even large power suppliers will collapse within days.</p><p>At present, European countries are urgently introducing rescue measures. Among them, Germany announced a rescue plan worth about 65 billion euros last Sunday; Finland said it would implement a $10 billion plan to stabilize the electricity market; Sweden also announced that it would provide US $23 billion in emergency reserve funds for power companies to avoid a broader financial crisis.</p><p><b>According to a draft document, the Czech Republic, which holds the EU's rotating presidency, will include these tools in a list of emergency intervention options at a meeting of energy ministers on Friday. In addition, emergency liquidity support for businesses facing high margin requirements will also be discussed at the meeting, the document shows.</b></p><p><b>The foreign exchange market is not calm either</b></p><p>As the haze enveloped the European market, on September 5, local time, the collective open low of European stock markets went lower. As of the close of the day, the Eurozone Stoxx 50 index closed down 1.53%, auto stocks fell nearly 5% to lead the decline, and German and Italian stock indexes both fell sharply. More than 2%, French stocks fell more than 1%, and only British stocks turned up slightly.</p><p>At the same time, the global exchange rate market has also set off a storm.</p><p>Among them, the depreciation momentum of European currencies is particularly fierce. In the early trading of the Asian market on September 5, the euro once fell to 0.9878 against the US dollar, falling below 0.99 for the first time in 20 years; The pound also fell to 1.14435 against the US dollar, the lowest price since 1985. Subsequently, British Foreign Secretary Truss was elected as the leader of the country's Conservative Party and was about to become prime minister. The pound rebounded against the US dollar and turned higher, returning to above the 1.15 mark.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7c87e0c9fe7b61ba803cd41750626852\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"883\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/DB\">Deutsche Bank</a>It warned that the risk of a \"pound crisis\" should not be underestimated. Increased uncertainty in political, trade and economic policies will further confuse the macroeconomic situation and weaken investor confidence. At present, the market expects that after the euro falls below the 1: 1 parity mark against the US dollar, the market may further witness the pound falling below the 1: 1 parity against the US dollar.</p><p>It is worth mentioning that GBP/USD is the oldest trading currency pair in the world. In more than 200 years of trading history, the quotation of GBP has never fallen below US $1. The most dangerous moment was 1985, when it once fell to US $1.05. Subsequently, the world's largest economies signed the Plaza Accord, which joined forces to depress the dollar.</p><p><b>Analysts pointed out that the main reason for the continued decline of the pound is closely related to the British economic situation. In the second quarter of this year, the British GDP fell by 0.1% month-on-month, and the economy fell into contraction.<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/GS\">Goldman Sachs</a>The UK's inflation rate could exceed 22pc next year due to climbing energy costs, warned, in one of the grim forecasts yet. The bank expects the UK economy to shrink by 3.4% in this scenario.</b></p><p>Mark Dowding, chief investment officer at asset manager BlueBay, said the sterling could fall to 1: 1 against the dollar in 2023, which will witness history again.</p><p>At the same time, the Asian exchange rate market has frequently sounded the alarm. Among them, the depreciation rate of the yen was particularly sharp. On September 5, the exchange rate of the yen against the US dollar officially fell below the psychological barrier of 140, hitting a new low since September 1998. Since the beginning of the year, the yen has fallen by 25%.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a2075c759a5153e62c18cd50029193ed\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"883\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>As the worst-performing G-10 currency this year, the decline of the yen reflects the growing policy divergence between the United States and Japan: the Federal Reserve keeps tightening liquidity rate hike, while the Bank of Japan has maintained loose policies to stimulate the economy.</p><p>Based on this, Goldman Sachs warned that after falling below the psychological barrier of 140, there are almost no obstacles to prevent the yen exchange rate from falling further. Considering that the Bank of Japan is likely to sit put, as long as the Federal Reserve continues to tighten policy, the exchange rate of USD/JPY may rise to 145 in three months due to widening spreads.</p><p>In addition, the options market also shows that traders are betting that the yen may fall further, pricing in favor of contracts that will pay off if the dollar continues to rise.</p><p><b>Red flags coming from America</b></p><p>At present, another red flag facing financial markets is that real interest rates in the United States are soaring rapidly.</p><p>According to Bloomberg data, short-term real interest rates in the United States have continued to rise since September this year, once jumping to the highest level since March 2020. Wall Street analysts pointed out that the period of cheap money in the United States is coming to an end, and the financial environment has obviously tightened.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e272d6f8bd9b0b20933c256e237dc9cb\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"613\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>The \"fuse\" for the sudden rise in real interest rates in the United States was a more-than-expected hawkish signal from Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell at the annual meeting of global central banks in Jackson Hole, saying that borrowing costs will need to rise and remain at levels that may limit economic growth. level to keep inflation down.</p><p>After this statement, the 10-year and 5-year real interest rates in the United States continued to rise. Goldman Sachs warned that the real yield of the current 10-year U.S. Treasury Bond is approaching a level that will severely restrict economic activity.</p><p>As we all know, the rise in real interest rates in the United States is a red flag for most financial assets, especially high-risk assets such as technology stocks and digital currencies. In addition, money markets other than the US dollar will also face the risk of capital outflow.</p><p>The recent performance of U.S. stocks has verified this point. Among them, the S&P 500 index continued to fall, falling below 4,000 points again, and the decline so far this year has exceeded 17%; The Nasdaq index, which is dominated by technology stocks, suffered a six-game losing streak, with a drop of 25.66% during the year.</p><p>For global markets, however, worse may be yet to come.</p><p>Goldman Sachs warned that the stock market will be ups and downs in the coming months, and if the trend of rising real yields and slowing economic growth continues, the stock market rises further.</p><p><b>The world's largest asset management company<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BLK\">BlackRock</a>Rick Rieder, chief investment officer of global fixed income business, believes that long-term U.S. yields may rise further, and the Federal Reserve is expected to rate hike by 75 basis points this month, which will be the third consecutive rate hike by the Federal Reserve of 75 basis points.</b></p><p>Swap trading data also shows that the market currently expects the Federal Reserve to continue to raise the benchmark interest rate by 75 basis points on September 21 and tighten policy until interest rates rise to around 3.8%. This means that there is still room for further upward movement in real interest rates in the United States.</p><p></body></html></p>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ec2141823eaa4967f84c1f3e5ec737c7","relate_stocks":{"VGK":"MSCI欧洲ETF-Vanguard"},"source_url":"","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1106602414","content_text":"欧洲正在做“最坏”的打算。当前,欧洲能源市场的“雷曼危机”警报彻底拉响。受俄罗斯无限期“断气”影响,当地时间9月5日,欧洲天然气期货价格一度飙涨超32%,与此同时,欧洲电力市场波动剧烈,导致欧洲电力交易商的对冲交易损失惨重,需要追加巨额保证金,否则将面临“爆仓”风险,有可能直接导致欧洲能源巨头陷入流动性危机甚至破产倒闭。芬兰经济部长警告,现在的欧洲能源市场具备了2008年“雷曼危机”的所有要素。面对愈发危险的能源危机,欧洲各国部长将在9月9日讨论“极端措施”来应对欧洲能源的“雷曼危机”,其中包括,设置天然气价格单日涨跌幅上限、暂停电力衍生品交易等。与此同时,全球汇率市场也掀起了一场风暴。其中,欧洲货币的贬值势头尤为凶猛,9月5日亚市早盘,欧元兑美元一度贬至0.9878,为20年来首次跌破0.99;英镑兑美元一度跌至1.14435,创下1985年来最低价位。欧洲资管人士认为,2023年英镑兑美元可能会跌至1:1的水平,将是200多年以来的第一次。当前,金融市场面临的另一个危险信号是,美国实际利率正快速飙升。据彭博社数据显示,今年9月以来,美国短期实际利率持续攀升,一度跃升至2020年3月以来的最高水平。意味着,美国廉价货币的时期走向结束,金融环境明显收紧。欧洲的“雷曼时刻”面对俄罗斯的“终极杀招”,欧洲正在酝酿“极端措施”。俄罗斯宣布“北溪1号”输气管道无限期停止运行后,欧洲能源市场、欧元、欧洲股市均面临严峻考验。其中,欧洲能源市场的危机尤为严峻,“雷曼危机”的警报彻底拉响。当地时间9月5日,作为欧洲基准的荷兰近月天然气期货价格一度飙涨超32%,创近6个月来的最大单日涨幅,同时也推动欧洲的电力价格上涨。当前,欧洲市场正在担忧,如果天然气价格继续飙升,欧洲能源交易商需要追加的保证金(Margin Call)将被进一步推高,造成爆炸式增长,有可能直接导致欧洲能源巨头陷入流动性危机甚至破产倒闭,进而波及整个欧洲经济,最终酿成能源业的“雷曼危机”。芬兰经济部长Mika Lintilä在新闻发布会上警告称,现在的能源市场具备了2008年“雷曼危机”的所有要素。面对愈发危险的能源危机,欧洲各国部长将在9月9日(本周五)讨论“极端措施”来应对欧洲能源的“雷曼危机”,其中包括,设置天然气价格单日涨跌幅上限、暂停电力衍生品交易,还包括减少电力需求和对可再生能源、核能和煤炭设置价格上限等。其中,欧盟计划中的暂停电力衍生品交易,也就是所谓的“拔网线”,引发市场强烈关注与热议。需要指出的是,欧洲电力供应商在出售电力前,一般会在期货市场上建立空头头寸作为对冲。如果电价上涨,空头头寸的损失会被抵消,反之亦然。2022年以来,欧洲电力市场的波动剧烈,大部分交易商的对冲交易都损失惨重,被迫需要缴纳巨额保证金,不然将面临“爆仓”风险。丹麦丹斯克银行首席信用分析师Jakob Magnussen也称,追缴保证金(Margin Call)正呈现出爆炸式增长态势。当前,欧洲大型公用事业公司为了解决资金危机,不得不将数十亿欧元的抵押品与交易所捆绑在一起。一位欧洲交易员警告称,当前市场所需的现金量正达到不可思议的水平。一位电力行业高管警告称,面对流动性问题,不仅仅是小型公司,甚至是大型电力供应商也会在数日之内崩塌。当前,欧洲各国正在紧急出台救助措施。其中,德国于上周日公布了一项价值约650亿欧元的救助计划;芬兰表示,将实施一项100亿美元的计划稳定电力市场;瑞典也宣布为电力企业提供230亿美元的紧急后备资金,以避免出现更广泛的金融危机。据一份文件草案,欧盟轮值主席国捷克将在周五的能源部长会议上将这些工具列入一份紧急干预选项清单。此外,该文件显示,会议上还将讨论为面临高额保证金要求的企业提供紧急流动性支持。外汇市场也不平静由于阴霾笼罩欧洲市场,当地时间9月5日,欧洲股市集体低开低走,截至当日收盘,欧元区Stoxx 50指数收跌1.53%,汽车股跌近5%领跌,德、意股指均大跌超2%,法股跌超1%,仅英股小幅转涨。与此同时,全球汇率市场也掀起了一场风暴。其中,欧洲货币的贬值势头尤为凶猛,9月5日亚市早盘,欧元兑美元一度贬至0.9878,为20年来首次跌破0.99;英镑兑美元也一度跌至1.14435,创下1985年来最低价位。随后,英国外交大臣特拉斯当选该国保守党党首,即将晋位首相,英镑兑美元反弹转涨,重回1.15关口上方。德意志银行警告称,不应低估“英镑危机”的风险,政治、贸易与经济政策不确定性的增加,,将进一步混淆宏观经济形势并削弱投资者信心。当前市场预期,继欧元兑美元跌破1:1平价关口后,市场或将进一步见证英镑兑美元跌破1:1平价。值得一提的是,英镑兑美元是全球历史最悠久的交易货币对,在超过200年的交易历史中,英镑的报价从未跌破1美元,最危险时刻是1985年,一度跌至1.05美元。随后,世界最大的经济体签订了广场协议,联手压低了美元。分析人士指出,英镑持续走低的主要原因与英国经济形势密切相关,今年二季度,英国GDP环比下滑0.1%,经济陷入萎缩。高盛警告称,由于能源成本不断攀升,英国明年的通胀率可能会超过22%,这是迄今为止最严峻的预测之一。该行预计,在这种情况下,英国经济将萎缩3.4%。资产管理公司BlueBay的首席投资官Mark Dowding表示,2023年英镑兑美元可能会跌至1:1的水平,将再次见证历史。与此同时,亚洲汇率市场也频频拉响警报。其中,日元的贬值速度尤为剧烈,9月5日,日元兑美元汇率正式跌破140心理关口,创1998年9月以来新低。自年初以来,日元累计跌幅达25%。作为今年表现最差的G-10货币,日元下跌反映了美日之间越来越大的政策分化:美联储不断加息收紧流动性,而日本央行却一直维持宽松政策以刺激经济。基于此,高盛警告称,在跌破140心理关口后,阻止日元汇率进一步下跌的障碍几乎不存在。考虑到日本央行可能按兵不动,只要美联储继续政策收紧,美元兑日元汇率可能在三个月内因利差扩大而升至145。另外,期权市场也显示,交易员正在押注日元可能进一步下跌,定价偏向于美元继续走高会获得回报的合约。美国传来的危险信号当前,金融市场面临的另一个危险信号是,美国实际利率正快速飙升。据彭博社数据显示,今年9月以来,美国短期实际利率持续攀升,一度跃升至2020年3月以来的最高水平。华尔街分析人士指出,美国廉价货币的时期正在走向结束,金融环境明显收紧。美国实际利率突然走高的“导火索”是,美联储主席鲍威尔在杰克逊霍尔全球央行年会上发出了超预期的鹰派信号,他表示,借贷成本将需要上升,并保持在可能限制经济增长的水平,以压低通胀。这番表态后,美国10年期、5年期实际利率持续攀升,高盛警告称,当前10年期美国国债的实际收益率,正在接近会严重限制经济活动的水平。众所周知,美国实际利率走高,对绝大部分金融资产而言都是危险信号,科技股、数字货币等高风险资产尤为敏感。另外,美元以外的货币市场也都将面临资金外流的风险。近期美股的表现便验证了这一点,其中,标普500指数持续走低,再度跌破4000点,今年迄今跌幅已超17%;以科技股为主的纳斯达克指数更是遭遇6连跌,年内跌幅达25.66%。然而对于全球市场而言,更糟的可能还在后面。高盛警告称,未来几个月股市将起伏不定,如果实际收益率上升和经济增长减速的态势持续下去,股市有进一步下跌的风险。全球最大资管公司贝莱德全球固定收益业务首席投资官Rick Rieder认为,美国长期收益率可能进一步上升,预计美联储本月将加息75个基点,这将是美联储连续第三次加息75个基点。掉期交易数据也显示,目前市场预计美联储将在9月21日继续将基准利率上调75个基点,并收紧政策直至利率升至3.8%左右的水平。这意味着,美国实际利率还有进一步上行的空间。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"VGK":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1233,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9021077528,"gmtCreate":1652996563664,"gmtModify":1676535201567,"author":{"id":"3577118447514075","authorId":"3577118447514075","name":"V你好","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3577118447514075","idStr":"3577118447514075"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"😁😁","listText":"😁😁","text":"😁😁","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9021077528","repostId":"9082719058","repostType":1,"repost":{"id":9082719058,"gmtCreate":1650600180791,"gmtModify":1676534761912,"author":{"id":"9000000000000725","authorId":"9000000000000725","name":"AfraSimon","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/46d30a827da942c1b0307f51e832534e","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"9000000000000725","idStr":"9000000000000725"},"themes":[],"title":"7 Biggest Bargain Stocks to Buy Before They Rebound","htmlText":"Petrobras<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/PBR\">$Petroleo Brasileiro SA Petrobras(PBR)$</a> (PBR) — Its low breakeven and consistent earnings displays could see it re-ignite its previous growth. Euroseas<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/ESEA\">$Euroseas(ESEA)$</a> (ESEA) — Global dry bulk restructuring could see its vessels be in high demand. Bank of America<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BAC\">$Bank of America(BAC)$</a> (BAC) — A near 20% stock sell-off is unwarranted as its interest-bearing operations could catch up soon. ARMOUR Residential REIT<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/ARR\">$ARMOUR Residential REIT Inc(ARR)$</a> (ARR) — Diversified MBS activities could sustain ARMOUR’s massive 15.08% dividend yield. Canadian Solar(CSIQ) <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/CSIQ\">$Canadian Solar(CSIQ)$</a> — Underappre","listText":"Petrobras<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/PBR\">$Petroleo Brasileiro SA Petrobras(PBR)$</a> (PBR) — Its low breakeven and consistent earnings displays could see it re-ignite its previous growth. Euroseas<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/ESEA\">$Euroseas(ESEA)$</a> (ESEA) — Global dry bulk restructuring could see its vessels be in high demand. Bank of America<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BAC\">$Bank of America(BAC)$</a> (BAC) — A near 20% stock sell-off is unwarranted as its interest-bearing operations could catch up soon. ARMOUR Residential REIT<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/ARR\">$ARMOUR Residential REIT Inc(ARR)$</a> (ARR) — Diversified MBS activities could sustain ARMOUR’s massive 15.08% dividend yield. Canadian Solar(CSIQ) <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/CSIQ\">$Canadian Solar(CSIQ)$</a> — Underappre","text":"Petrobras$Petroleo Brasileiro SA Petrobras(PBR)$ (PBR) — Its low breakeven and consistent earnings displays could see it re-ignite its previous growth. Euroseas$Euroseas(ESEA)$ (ESEA) — Global dry bulk restructuring could see its vessels be in high demand. Bank of America$Bank of America(BAC)$ (BAC) — A near 20% stock sell-off is unwarranted as its interest-bearing operations could catch up soon. ARMOUR Residential REIT$ARMOUR Residential REIT Inc(ARR)$ (ARR) — Diversified MBS activities could sustain ARMOUR’s massive 15.08% dividend yield. Canadian Solar(CSIQ) $Canadian Solar(CSIQ)$ — Underappre","images":[{"img":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/28a84aa166dfe2e7c993abca31ae8e11","width":"-1","height":"-1"},{"img":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/a608450f31aa03b404f0d38788a86ac8","width":"-1","height":"-1"},{"img":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/d429c296a3d80c06071f83c2da0021c9","width":"-1","height":"-1"}],"top":1,"highlighted":2,"essential":1,"paper":2,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9082719058","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":0,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":8,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1220,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9098962410,"gmtCreate":1644011441576,"gmtModify":1676533880527,"author":{"id":"3577118447514075","authorId":"3577118447514075","name":"V你好","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3577118447514075","idStr":"3577118447514075"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"✌✌","listText":"✌✌","text":"✌✌","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9098962410","repostId":"695012724","repostType":1,"repost":{"id":695012724,"gmtCreate":1641265859115,"gmtModify":1676532521786,"author":{"id":"4089270275521270","authorId":"4089270275521270","name":"凉生凉姜生暖","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b32a866ba598a672fb97286e7663e40d","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"4089270275521270","idStr":"4089270275521270"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"1998年,巴菲特在佛羅里達大學商學院做了一場超有內涵的演講,這次演講後來被稱爲是巴菲特一生中最經典的演講,沒有之一。段永平強烈推薦這次的演講內容,據說已經看了10遍。“請各位提問時一定要刁鑽,你們問的問題越難,才越好玩。”值得一提的是,近一個半小時的演講中,巴菲特本人並沒有長篇大論,而是把大部分時間交給了現場的同學,讓他們提出自己最爲關心的問題。“您喜歡什麼樣的公司?”“到底該花多少錢買一家公司?”“能否講講您在商業中犯的錯誤?”一個個犀利的問題並沒有難倒這位“股神”,他既幽默風趣的回答了學生們的提問,又藉着問題深入剖析了自己的選股標準、組合構建和思維方式。黃崢此前說過,“我發現巴菲特講的東西其實特別簡單,連我母親都能聽懂。常識顯而易見、容易理解,但我們因爲成長、學習形成的偏見和個人利益的訴求矇蔽了我們。”如黃崢所言,巴菲特極其擅長把重要的投資哲理用非常通俗易懂的比喻來告訴大家,二十年前便是如此,一個個生動的案例加上形象化的表達,讓這場演講成爲經典中的經典,今天重溫下來,依然極具啓迪意義。演講原文較長,我們從中整理了40條精華內容摘編成文,涉及投資理念、生意判斷以及對年輕人的希冀,相信讀後一定會對你有所啓發。01、別做安全邊際以外的事01.假設你遞給我一把槍,裏面有1000個彈倉、100萬個彈倉,其中只有一個彈倉裏有一顆子彈,你說:“把槍對準你的太陽穴,扣一下扳機,你要多少錢?”我不幹。你給我多少錢,我都不幹。要是我贏了,我不需要那些錢;要是我輸了,結果不用說了。這樣的事,我一點都不想做,但是在金融領域,人們經常做這樣的事,都不經過大腦。02.假設年初你有1億美元,如果不上槓杆,能賺10%,上槓杆的成功率是99%,能賺20%,年末時你有1.1億美元,還是1.2億美元,有區別嗎?沒一點區別。要是年末你死了,寫訃告的人可能有個筆誤,雖然你有1.2億,但他寫成了1.1億。多賺的","listText":"1998年,巴菲特在佛羅里達大學商學院做了一場超有內涵的演講,這次演講後來被稱爲是巴菲特一生中最經典的演講,沒有之一。段永平強烈推薦這次的演講內容,據說已經看了10遍。“請各位提問時一定要刁鑽,你們問的問題越難,才越好玩。”值得一提的是,近一個半小時的演講中,巴菲特本人並沒有長篇大論,而是把大部分時間交給了現場的同學,讓他們提出自己最爲關心的問題。“您喜歡什麼樣的公司?”“到底該花多少錢買一家公司?”“能否講講您在商業中犯的錯誤?”一個個犀利的問題並沒有難倒這位“股神”,他既幽默風趣的回答了學生們的提問,又藉着問題深入剖析了自己的選股標準、組合構建和思維方式。黃崢此前說過,“我發現巴菲特講的東西其實特別簡單,連我母親都能聽懂。常識顯而易見、容易理解,但我們因爲成長、學習形成的偏見和個人利益的訴求矇蔽了我們。”如黃崢所言,巴菲特極其擅長把重要的投資哲理用非常通俗易懂的比喻來告訴大家,二十年前便是如此,一個個生動的案例加上形象化的表達,讓這場演講成爲經典中的經典,今天重溫下來,依然極具啓迪意義。演講原文較長,我們從中整理了40條精華內容摘編成文,涉及投資理念、生意判斷以及對年輕人的希冀,相信讀後一定會對你有所啓發。01、別做安全邊際以外的事01.假設你遞給我一把槍,裏面有1000個彈倉、100萬個彈倉,其中只有一個彈倉裏有一顆子彈,你說:“把槍對準你的太陽穴,扣一下扳機,你要多少錢?”我不幹。你給我多少錢,我都不幹。要是我贏了,我不需要那些錢;要是我輸了,結果不用說了。這樣的事,我一點都不想做,但是在金融領域,人們經常做這樣的事,都不經過大腦。02.假設年初你有1億美元,如果不上槓杆,能賺10%,上槓杆的成功率是99%,能賺20%,年末時你有1.1億美元,還是1.2億美元,有區別嗎?沒一點區別。要是年末你死了,寫訃告的人可能有個筆誤,雖然你有1.2億,但他寫成了1.1億。多賺的","text":"1998年,巴菲特在佛羅里達大學商學院做了一場超有內涵的演講,這次演講後來被稱爲是巴菲特一生中最經典的演講,沒有之一。段永平強烈推薦這次的演講內容,據說已經看了10遍。“請各位提問時一定要刁鑽,你們問的問題越難,才越好玩。”值得一提的是,近一個半小時的演講中,巴菲特本人並沒有長篇大論,而是把大部分時間交給了現場的同學,讓他們提出自己最爲關心的問題。“您喜歡什麼樣的公司?”“到底該花多少錢買一家公司?”“能否講講您在商業中犯的錯誤?”一個個犀利的問題並沒有難倒這位“股神”,他既幽默風趣的回答了學生們的提問,又藉着問題深入剖析了自己的選股標準、組合構建和思維方式。黃崢此前說過,“我發現巴菲特講的東西其實特別簡單,連我母親都能聽懂。常識顯而易見、容易理解,但我們因爲成長、學習形成的偏見和個人利益的訴求矇蔽了我們。”如黃崢所言,巴菲特極其擅長把重要的投資哲理用非常通俗易懂的比喻來告訴大家,二十年前便是如此,一個個生動的案例加上形象化的表達,讓這場演講成爲經典中的經典,今天重溫下來,依然極具啓迪意義。演講原文較長,我們從中整理了40條精華內容摘編成文,涉及投資理念、生意判斷以及對年輕人的希冀,相信讀後一定會對你有所啓發。01、別做安全邊際以外的事01.假設你遞給我一把槍,裏面有1000個彈倉、100萬個彈倉,其中只有一個彈倉裏有一顆子彈,你說:“把槍對準你的太陽穴,扣一下扳機,你要多少錢?”我不幹。你給我多少錢,我都不幹。要是我贏了,我不需要那些錢;要是我輸了,結果不用說了。這樣的事,我一點都不想做,但是在金融領域,人們經常做這樣的事,都不經過大腦。02.假設年初你有1億美元,如果不上槓杆,能賺10%,上槓杆的成功率是99%,能賺20%,年末時你有1.1億美元,還是1.2億美元,有區別嗎?沒一點區別。要是年末你死了,寫訃告的人可能有個筆誤,雖然你有1.2億,但他寫成了1.1億。多賺的","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/695012724","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":0,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1681,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0}],"lives":[]}