Tleestics personal page - To The Moon

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Tleestics

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2022-07-20

$Coinbase Global, Inc.(COIN)$🚀🚀🚀

2021-08-06

$DiDi Global Inc.(DIDI)$Why did it go silent for so long …

2021-07-29

$DiDi Global Inc.(DIDI)$Pretend to deny privatisation and share buy back at low price. Smart move Didi

2021-07-29

$DiDi Global Inc.(DIDI)$What will happen to Call Options after privatise?

2021-07-26

$DiDi Global Inc.(DIDI)$I have faith in you

2021-07-22

Telling others it’s gonna drop so they can buy the dip…

Entering The Worst Seasonal Period Of The Year, And 10 Other Reasons Why Goldman Braces For An August Correction

2021-07-21

$DiDi Global Inc.(DIDI)$When is this going to the moon

2021-07-19

$DiDi Global Inc.(DIDI)$rise rise

2021-07-13

$DiDi Global Inc.(DIDI)$Will this rise

2021-07-08

$DiDi Global Inc.(DIDI)$Faith

2021-07-03

$Walt Disney(DIS)$Cmon

2021-07-02

$DiDi Global Inc.(DIDI)$Time to buy the dip!

2021-06-27

$Alibaba(BABA)$HODL

2021-06-27

$ProShares UltraPro Short QQQ(SQQQ)$Thoughts on this coming week?

2021-06-19

We need a reversal

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2021-06-19

Anything good?

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2021-06-19

$Alibaba(BABA)$Undervalued

2021-06-19

$Baidu(BIDU)$Cmon

2021-06-18

$Baidu(BIDU)$HODL

2021-06-18

$SINGTEL(Z74.SI)$Why is it dropping

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href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/COIN\">$Coinbase Global, Inc.(COIN)$</a><v-v data-views=\"1\"></v-v>🚀🚀🚀","listText":"<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/COIN\">$Coinbase Global, Inc.(COIN)$</a><v-v data-views=\"1\"></v-v>🚀🚀🚀","text":"$Coinbase Global, Inc.(COIN)$🚀🚀🚀","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9075700367","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1632,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":899717438,"gmtCreate":1628215232724,"gmtModify":1703503289921,"author":{"id":"3577406057864778","authorId":"3577406057864778","name":"Tleestics","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/bd56a14c2c00de395c9704b1539dc5d1","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3577406057864778","authorIdStr":"3577406057864778"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/DIDI\">$DiDi Global Inc.(DIDI)$</a>Why did it go silent for so long …","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/DIDI\">$DiDi Global Inc.(DIDI)$</a>Why did it go silent for so long …","text":"$DiDi Global Inc.(DIDI)$Why did it go silent for so long …","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/899717438","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1849,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":808186302,"gmtCreate":1627565241606,"gmtModify":1703492457415,"author":{"id":"3577406057864778","authorId":"3577406057864778","name":"Tleestics","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/bd56a14c2c00de395c9704b1539dc5d1","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3577406057864778","authorIdStr":"3577406057864778"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/DIDI\">$DiDi Global Inc.(DIDI)$</a>Pretend to deny privatisation and share buy back at low price. Smart move Didi","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/DIDI\">$DiDi Global Inc.(DIDI)$</a>Pretend to deny privatisation and share buy back at low price. Smart move Didi","text":"$DiDi Global Inc.(DIDI)$Pretend to deny privatisation and share buy back at low price. Smart move Didi","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":2,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/808186302","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2713,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":808975848,"gmtCreate":1627554203884,"gmtModify":1703492250606,"author":{"id":"3577406057864778","authorId":"3577406057864778","name":"Tleestics","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/bd56a14c2c00de395c9704b1539dc5d1","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3577406057864778","authorIdStr":"3577406057864778"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/DIDI\">$DiDi Global Inc.(DIDI)$</a>What will happen to Call Options after privatise?&nbsp;","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/DIDI\">$DiDi Global Inc.(DIDI)$</a>What will happen to Call Options after privatise?&nbsp;","text":"$DiDi Global Inc.(DIDI)$What will happen to Call Options after privatise?","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/808975848","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2852,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":800515542,"gmtCreate":1627308249186,"gmtModify":1703487314472,"author":{"id":"3577406057864778","authorId":"3577406057864778","name":"Tleestics","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/bd56a14c2c00de395c9704b1539dc5d1","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3577406057864778","authorIdStr":"3577406057864778"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/DIDI\">$DiDi Global Inc.(DIDI)$</a>I have faith in you","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/DIDI\">$DiDi Global Inc.(DIDI)$</a>I have faith in you","text":"$DiDi Global Inc.(DIDI)$I have faith in you","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/817cb066113cbc510e8059685488b74a","width":"1125","height":"1949"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/800515542","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1639,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":172860772,"gmtCreate":1626951992496,"gmtModify":1703481201420,"author":{"id":"3577406057864778","authorId":"3577406057864778","name":"Tleestics","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/bd56a14c2c00de395c9704b1539dc5d1","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3577406057864778","authorIdStr":"3577406057864778"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Telling others it’s gonna drop so they can buy the dip…","listText":"Telling others it’s gonna drop so they can buy the dip…","text":"Telling others it’s gonna drop so they can buy the dip…","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":8,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/172860772","repostId":"1192458370","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1192458370","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1626938362,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1192458370?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2021-07-22 15:19","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Entering The Worst Seasonal Period Of The Year, And 10 Other Reasons Why Goldman Braces For An August Correction","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1192458370","media":"zerohedge","summary":"In a stark reversal to its bullish sentiment at the start of the month, when the bank first noted - ","content":"<p>In a stark reversal to its bullish sentiment at the start of the month, when the bank first noted - correctly - that the S&amp;P was entering itsbest 2-week seasonal period of the yearwhich it did between July 1 and 15 when it posted a series of new all time highs (before dumping on the 16th and the 19th)...</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e7dc88222112e4655f492c56509f9d64\" tg-width=\"1280\" tg-height=\"467\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p>... followed by a lengthy rationalization why \"the shorts will have to cover\", Goldman has been turning surprisingly bearish in recent days, and two days after Goldman flow trader John Flood urged Goldman clients \"not to buy this dip\" on Monday (spoiler alert: they did) his trading desk colleague Scott Rubner has published a report previewing why he anticipates a correction in the coming days and continuing through the Jackson Hole symposium at the end of August.</p>\n<p>His note, from which we excerpt below, contains the key arguments behind Goldman's August \"correction\" thesis, including tactical flow of funds, an acceleration of sellers, and feedback from the GS equity trading floor.</p>\n<p>So without further ado, here is Rubner, who lays out his \"<b><i>11 point checklist for an August correction\"</i></b>, starting by noting that \"<i>the #1 question that has hit my inbox/IB in the past 48 hours. What happens to the equity market when there is an outflow and buy demand slows?</i>\" As we read below, the most appropriate answer is \"nothing good.\"</p>\n<blockquote>\n <i>11 point Checklist - Consensus client feedback for a quick equity risk reduction into potentially lower buy demand into Jackson hole. The consensus feedback seems to be calling for a -5% correction, which really gets to -4%. This is a recap of the talking points about to hit your inbox this week. I think this morning’s rally gets faded as buy tickets are completed early in the day.</i> \n <i><b>“Selling rallies” is the new dynamic vs. buying dips.</b></i>\n</blockquote>\n<p><u><b>1. Weak Seasonals</b></u>- Since 1928, we just exited the best two-week period of the year. Friday’s option expiry ended the best seasonal period of the year.<b>August seasonals are not market friendly and trend lower all of August, for the 4th worst two-week seasonal period of the year</b>. Today you are here and Jackson hole is the low point of this chart. Since 1950, there have been 19 times in 72 years that the S&amp;P is up at least &gt;10% through the first half of the year. The median return for August specifically, following a strong 1H is typically down -51bps, before rallying higher.</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f41d55d3d45aecb40b0f24e53de17363\" tg-width=\"694\" tg-height=\"499\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p><u><b>2. Largest outflows of the year</b></u>- Investors allocate capital into the market in July and we have seen these record inflows. This is the biggest dynamic in the equity market this year period. Inflows continue at a record pace, annualizing at $1.2 trillion inflows for 2021. 401k inflows predominately flowed in S&amp;P and NDX rather than ROW.</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9d67c2e0a1590d44ff3be03c2c86c88e\" tg-width=\"645\" tg-height=\"368\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a58d02645303f22b7e53b58698e11f56\" tg-width=\"508\" tg-height=\"338\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p><u><b>3. Reversal of flows predicted for August</b></u>- Equity inflows are not common in August. Over the last 30 years,<b>August typically sees the largest outflows of the year</b>. -15bps of AUM typically leaves stock market funds in August, on ~22 Trillion, we model -$33B worth of equities for sale.</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3308ac184f4fde82ba6c27fbcfbdd86f\" tg-width=\"579\" tg-height=\"340\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/005f51048f49a72597db950884245e8c\" tg-width=\"563\" tg-height=\"351\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p><b><u>4. Outflows cont.</u></b>To be clear, -$33B is not a significant $ figure when adjusted for market cap, however more important is that it’s not an inflow. The index level has remained at ATHs given inflows bid up the largest and biggest market cap index weights. On Monday we saw a large MOC imbalance for sale, this was unusual.</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d98939cb6e06e80bc643fdca6801fb0a\" tg-width=\"268\" tg-height=\"474\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p><u><b>5. Passive flows drive largest marketcaps</b></u>- Passive ETFs logged the best full year of inflows on record, in just the first half of the year. (+500b). I watch the tape every day register large MOC imbalances to buy at 3:50pm EST,<b>but what if this dynamic fades.</b>Remember $1 inflow into SPY flows $.23 cents into top 5 companies and $1 inflow into QQQ flows $.41 cents into top 5. If inflows flip to outflows you will no longer see broad index dynamic.<b>Then investors need to decide which sector becomes the funding source for outflows.</b></p>\n<p>Just how important has this been for the S&amp;P 500? Important!</p>\n<ul>\n <li>Global Equity: 1-year: +$600B passive (IN) vs. $0.0B active (OUT) = &gt;$600B.</li>\n <li>Global Equity: 5-year: +$2.30T passive (IN) vs. -$1.90T active (OUT) = &gt;$4.2T</li>\n <li>Global Equity: 10-year: +$4T passive (IN) vs. -$3.0T active (OUT) = &gt;$7.0T</li>\n <li>Current Global Equity Active AUM of $10.099T exceeds &gt; Current Global Equity Passive AUM $7.225 T.</li>\n</ul>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/72aadadcd243a659f1e3cc9fc8f75c1b\" tg-width=\"666\" tg-height=\"375\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5419e040f7d023061743d473ffef59d1\" tg-width=\"666\" tg-height=\"375\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4fff3382eec0b783b12411fb653c6718\" tg-width=\"663\" tg-height=\"377\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p><i>Side note: ETFs represented 36% of the notional executed volumes, last levels since in March/April 2020. (YTD average) = 24%. Did you see the massive volumes in SQQQ Monday (3x short QQQ)?</i></p>\n<p><u><b>6. Single Stock Calls</b></u>- This is set up is very similar to July and August 2020 blow-off top as a result of call option trading. Reminder, S&amp;P sold off -392bps in September 2020 after call option volumes started to fade.</p>\n<ul>\n <li>Option notional has averaged an all-time record of +$550B per day in July. The top 3 traded stocks (AAPL, AMZN, and TSLA) make up $300B of daily volumes. Breadth in both options and stocks is low.</li>\n <li>\"Of 4000 Tradeable Single Stock options, the top 3 names make up 56% of the daily avg notional traded. Adding in the next 7, that ratio jumps to 72%.\"</li>\n <li>\"Said another way the top 10 underliers trade 3x more notional on an average day than the bottom 3990”</li>\n <li>This is an important dynamic to monitor.</li>\n</ul>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/be539bca2d8b556e65d32bbe28f2abb4\" tg-width=\"676\" tg-height=\"441\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p><u><b>7. Call Options cont.</b></u>- Retail has pivoted from trading weekly call options on GME and AMC - only $6B combined notional per day to the stay-at-home playbook. The names with the highest daily option trading are also the largest index weights. In addition to ETF flows, the retail call option buying frenzy also takes the street short weekly gamma on single names. 75% of single stock options traded today have an expiry of two weeks or less.<b>Said another way, given GS YOLO risk sentiment basket has rolled over, does AAPL need to catch down next (or at least not see YOLO flows).</b></p>\n<p>$181bln/day AMZN</p>\n<p>$ 82bln/day TSLA</p>\n<p>$ 36bln/day AAPL</p>\n<p>--------------</p>\n<p><b>TOTAL TSLA/AMZN/AAPL: $299bln/day&nbsp; ------- What happens if call volume in mega cap tech declines?</b></p>\n<ul>\n <li>$ 26bln/day NVDA</li>\n <li>$ 14bln/day GOOGL</li>\n <li>$ 11bln/day FB</li>\n <li>$ 10bln/day MSFT</li>\n <li>$&nbsp; 8bln/day SHOP</li>\n <li>$&nbsp; 8bln/day GOOG</li>\n <li>$&nbsp; 8bln/day NFLX</li>\n <li>$&nbsp; 7bln/day BABA</li>\n</ul>\n<p>--------------</p>\n<p><b>TOTAL GOOG/GOOGL/MSFT/FB/NFLX/NVDA/SHOP/BABA: $90bln/day</b></p>\n<ul>\n <li>$&nbsp; 4bln/day AMC</li>\n <li>$&nbsp; 2bln/day GME</li>\n</ul>\n<p>--------------</p>\n<p><b>TOTAL AMC/GME: $6bln/day&nbsp; ------- No Mo’ Yolo? See chart below.</b></p>\n<p>All other underlyings: $141bln/day</p>\n<p><u><i><b>Total single stock option market:</b></i></u></p>\n<ul>\n <li>$299bln/day TSLA/AMZN/AAPL</li>\n <li>$ 90bln/day GOOG/GOOGL/MSFT/FB/NFLX/NVDA/SHOP/BABA</li>\n <li>$&nbsp; 6bln/day AMC/GME</li>\n <li>$141bln/day All other underlyings</li>\n</ul>\n<p>--------------------</p>\n<p><b>$537bln/day Total</b></p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1f5678ad5b66dd918c2cbb51263c9df0\" tg-width=\"650\" tg-height=\"450\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p><b><u>8. Option Gamma Unwinds</u></b>- Option Expiry just rolled off -85% of the market long gamma. The market now has the ability to move more freely and trade less long gamma. Everyday last week the market would rally into the bell as dealers re-hedge their gamma (buying the dips). I get worried about summer end-of-day liquidity without gamma hedging and passive demand. I think there will be also a “institutional” demand to buy hedges into Jackson Hole fulling removing the long gamma taking the street short to hedge downside. We have seen more puts and put spreads on the desk this week than any week of 2021.</p>\n<ul>\n <li>Wednesday (7/14) SPX gamma = +$4,625B</li>\n <li>Thursday (7/15) SPX gamma = +$3,620B</li>\n <li>Friday (7/16) SPX gamma = +$3,136B</li>\n <li>Monday (7/19) SPX gamma = +$2,698B</li>\n <li>Tuesday (7/20) SPX Gamma = +$713B.</li>\n</ul>\n<p><b>the Long S&amp;P 500 gamma has been reduced by -85% in the past 5 days taking dealers less long gamma.</b>This dynamic changes market behavior and we are seeing little demand to systematically overwrite from here even despite the move higher in vols. This is new.</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b78215d53696f99f4c746f296ae2d225\" tg-width=\"797\" tg-height=\"598\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p><u><b>9. Systematic</b></u>- Non-economic is already near the max exposure and have little scope to add further from here. No threshold levels have triggered so far, but it is important to note the lack of ability to add from here, which asymmetrically skews the downside.</p>\n<ul>\n <li><b>CTA</b>- 90% percentile on 1-year rank, 84% percentile on 3-yr rank.</li>\n <li><b>GS models</b>-$9B of equities for sale over the next week. CTA’s are sellers in an up tape, down tape, down big tape. That’s not common. Check out big asymmetry to the downside over the next 1 month.</li>\n <li><b>GS short term CTA ES1 Flip Level</b>= $4,257.90. We tripped this circuit breaker yesterday, but are higher this am. I expect GS sell expectations to increase.</li>\n</ul>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3efe5f0b54f671b5c1b366ff5514cf5c\" tg-width=\"751\" tg-height=\"323\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/232a48ec7525cb179f6cd8bc285b7e55\" tg-width=\"499\" tg-height=\"300\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p><b>b) Vol Control - 86% percentile on 1-year rank, 75% percentile on 3-yr rank. FYI. SPX Put/Call Ratio hit a fresh 1 year high yesterday.</b></p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a5553785fd8a0a66e717f5579ba6ee91\" tg-width=\"500\" tg-height=\"300\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p><b>c) Risk Parity - 100% percentile on 1-year rank, 53% percentile on 3-yr rank.</b></p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9be4d94aa1cd38dad335c1424d3be626\" tg-width=\"500\" tg-height=\"300\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p><b>d) Total Systematic - 92% percentile on 1-year rank, 80% percentile on 3-yr rank. This is important. This non-emotional demand is at the max and will be sellers lower.</b></p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4068fa4e9a8c6c06f77627c9ee6e07b8\" tg-width=\"500\" tg-height=\"300\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p><u><b>10. Liquidity</b></u>- The unofficial Rubner out of office outlook (OOO) reply meter. My note last week has week had the largest out of office kickbacks to the tune of “see you in a few weeks” or “gone fishing”. The upcoming calendar into Jackson Hole is important.</p>\n<ol>\n <li>next few weeks, extended vacation schedule first time in 12 months, etc, moved forward because Jackson hole.</li>\n <li>Jackson Hole, August 26 (Thursday) - August 28 (Saturday) – Friday is the likely the key calendar, but potentially Saturday will be important. This moves hedges to the following week.</li>\n <li>Labor Day, September 6 (Monday exchange holiday) - late this year</li>\n <li>approximate First day of Children’s school, September 7 (Tuesday)</li>\n <li>Liquidity = August Summer – ZZZZ. Top book liquidity declined SUBSTANTIALLY into the sell off yesterday.</li>\n</ol>\n<p>*** despite being ranked 10 in the checklist. This is really chart #1. Liquidity dried up substantially yesterday on the screens. This chart peaked at $36M last Monday to $10.810M yesterday. This is a drop of $25M $ or ~70% in on screws liquidity in 1 week.</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/60db9087f28d7496be38eafbc0fa755e\" tg-width=\"650\" tg-height=\"450\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p><u><b>11. Buybacks</b></u>: Buybacks are here, but so is equity issuance, which neutralizes the buyback impulse. As corporates meet corporates. From Sales and trading colleague, John Flood in his most recent trading note.</p>\n<p><i>“It has been a paper party and this paper is getting harder to place. Last week we priced 11 registered deals in the U.S. ($3b notional) and this week already working on another 18 ($10b). This is especially noteworthy while in the depths of July.“</i></p>\n<ul>\n <li>Last week there was $6.2 billion in equity issuance, compared with the July weekly average of $3.4 billion since 2000.</li>\n <li>Last week there were 27 equity deals brought to market, compared with the July average of 15 deals per week since 2000.</li>\n</ul>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b680be938f506ba528c382fdb7d805ba\" tg-width=\"897\" tg-height=\"606\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p><i><b>Bottom Line:</b></i><i>Keep Tactical Flow of Funds Checklist on your radar for August. The technical market structure dynamics changes substantially during August</i><i><b>. I think there will be a dip (-5%) and it is meant to be bought heading late into Jackson Hole.</b></i><i>The consensus is calling for a larger equity market correction, I do not see it given the amount of capital in the system. I change my tone if we trigger key levels to the downside as sellers are lower. If August outflows actually happen, I think tech underperforms cyclical value reopen given high concentration and largest passive impact.</i><i><b>Once we see the first outflow in August, this will be the macro trigger for a tactical short</b></i><i>. Stay tuned and keep an eye on liquidity.</i></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Entering The Worst Seasonal Period Of The Year, And 10 Other Reasons Why Goldman Braces For An August Correction</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nEntering The Worst Seasonal Period Of The Year, And 10 Other Reasons Why Goldman Braces For An August Correction\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-07-22 15:19 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/entering-worst-seasonal-period-year-and-10-other-reasons-why-goldman-braces-august><strong>zerohedge</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>In a stark reversal to its bullish sentiment at the start of the month, when the bank first noted - correctly - that the S&P was entering itsbest 2-week seasonal period of the yearwhich it did between...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/entering-worst-seasonal-period-year-and-10-other-reasons-why-goldman-braces-august\">Source Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{".SPX":"S&P 500 Index",".DJI":"道琼斯","SPY":"标普500ETF",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite"},"source_url":"https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/entering-worst-seasonal-period-year-and-10-other-reasons-why-goldman-braces-august","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1192458370","content_text":"In a stark reversal to its bullish sentiment at the start of the month, when the bank first noted - correctly - that the S&P was entering itsbest 2-week seasonal period of the yearwhich it did between July 1 and 15 when it posted a series of new all time highs (before dumping on the 16th and the 19th)...\n\n... followed by a lengthy rationalization why \"the shorts will have to cover\", Goldman has been turning surprisingly bearish in recent days, and two days after Goldman flow trader John Flood urged Goldman clients \"not to buy this dip\" on Monday (spoiler alert: they did) his trading desk colleague Scott Rubner has published a report previewing why he anticipates a correction in the coming days and continuing through the Jackson Hole symposium at the end of August.\nHis note, from which we excerpt below, contains the key arguments behind Goldman's August \"correction\" thesis, including tactical flow of funds, an acceleration of sellers, and feedback from the GS equity trading floor.\nSo without further ado, here is Rubner, who lays out his \"11 point checklist for an August correction\", starting by noting that \"the #1 question that has hit my inbox/IB in the past 48 hours. What happens to the equity market when there is an outflow and buy demand slows?\" As we read below, the most appropriate answer is \"nothing good.\"\n\n11 point Checklist - Consensus client feedback for a quick equity risk reduction into potentially lower buy demand into Jackson hole. The consensus feedback seems to be calling for a -5% correction, which really gets to -4%. This is a recap of the talking points about to hit your inbox this week. I think this morning’s rally gets faded as buy tickets are completed early in the day.\n“Selling rallies” is the new dynamic vs. buying dips.\n\n1. Weak Seasonals- Since 1928, we just exited the best two-week period of the year. Friday’s option expiry ended the best seasonal period of the year.August seasonals are not market friendly and trend lower all of August, for the 4th worst two-week seasonal period of the year. Today you are here and Jackson hole is the low point of this chart. Since 1950, there have been 19 times in 72 years that the S&P is up at least >10% through the first half of the year. The median return for August specifically, following a strong 1H is typically down -51bps, before rallying higher.\n\n2. Largest outflows of the year- Investors allocate capital into the market in July and we have seen these record inflows. This is the biggest dynamic in the equity market this year period. Inflows continue at a record pace, annualizing at $1.2 trillion inflows for 2021. 401k inflows predominately flowed in S&P and NDX rather than ROW.\n\n3. Reversal of flows predicted for August- Equity inflows are not common in August. Over the last 30 years,August typically sees the largest outflows of the year. -15bps of AUM typically leaves stock market funds in August, on ~22 Trillion, we model -$33B worth of equities for sale.\n\n4. Outflows cont.To be clear, -$33B is not a significant $ figure when adjusted for market cap, however more important is that it’s not an inflow. The index level has remained at ATHs given inflows bid up the largest and biggest market cap index weights. On Monday we saw a large MOC imbalance for sale, this was unusual.\n\n5. Passive flows drive largest marketcaps- Passive ETFs logged the best full year of inflows on record, in just the first half of the year. (+500b). I watch the tape every day register large MOC imbalances to buy at 3:50pm EST,but what if this dynamic fades.Remember $1 inflow into SPY flows $.23 cents into top 5 companies and $1 inflow into QQQ flows $.41 cents into top 5. If inflows flip to outflows you will no longer see broad index dynamic.Then investors need to decide which sector becomes the funding source for outflows.\nJust how important has this been for the S&P 500? Important!\n\nGlobal Equity: 1-year: +$600B passive (IN) vs. $0.0B active (OUT) = >$600B.\nGlobal Equity: 5-year: +$2.30T passive (IN) vs. -$1.90T active (OUT) = >$4.2T\nGlobal Equity: 10-year: +$4T passive (IN) vs. -$3.0T active (OUT) = >$7.0T\nCurrent Global Equity Active AUM of $10.099T exceeds > Current Global Equity Passive AUM $7.225 T.\n\n\nSide note: ETFs represented 36% of the notional executed volumes, last levels since in March/April 2020. (YTD average) = 24%. Did you see the massive volumes in SQQQ Monday (3x short QQQ)?\n6. Single Stock Calls- This is set up is very similar to July and August 2020 blow-off top as a result of call option trading. Reminder, S&P sold off -392bps in September 2020 after call option volumes started to fade.\n\nOption notional has averaged an all-time record of +$550B per day in July. The top 3 traded stocks (AAPL, AMZN, and TSLA) make up $300B of daily volumes. Breadth in both options and stocks is low.\n\"Of 4000 Tradeable Single Stock options, the top 3 names make up 56% of the daily avg notional traded. Adding in the next 7, that ratio jumps to 72%.\"\n\"Said another way the top 10 underliers trade 3x more notional on an average day than the bottom 3990”\nThis is an important dynamic to monitor.\n\n\n7. Call Options cont.- Retail has pivoted from trading weekly call options on GME and AMC - only $6B combined notional per day to the stay-at-home playbook. The names with the highest daily option trading are also the largest index weights. In addition to ETF flows, the retail call option buying frenzy also takes the street short weekly gamma on single names. 75% of single stock options traded today have an expiry of two weeks or less.Said another way, given GS YOLO risk sentiment basket has rolled over, does AAPL need to catch down next (or at least not see YOLO flows).\n$181bln/day AMZN\n$ 82bln/day TSLA\n$ 36bln/day AAPL\n--------------\nTOTAL TSLA/AMZN/AAPL: $299bln/day  ------- What happens if call volume in mega cap tech declines?\n\n$ 26bln/day NVDA\n$ 14bln/day GOOGL\n$ 11bln/day FB\n$ 10bln/day MSFT\n$  8bln/day SHOP\n$  8bln/day GOOG\n$  8bln/day NFLX\n$  7bln/day BABA\n\n--------------\nTOTAL GOOG/GOOGL/MSFT/FB/NFLX/NVDA/SHOP/BABA: $90bln/day\n\n$  4bln/day AMC\n$  2bln/day GME\n\n--------------\nTOTAL AMC/GME: $6bln/day  ------- No Mo’ Yolo? See chart below.\nAll other underlyings: $141bln/day\nTotal single stock option market:\n\n$299bln/day TSLA/AMZN/AAPL\n$ 90bln/day GOOG/GOOGL/MSFT/FB/NFLX/NVDA/SHOP/BABA\n$  6bln/day AMC/GME\n$141bln/day All other underlyings\n\n--------------------\n$537bln/day Total\n\n8. Option Gamma Unwinds- Option Expiry just rolled off -85% of the market long gamma. The market now has the ability to move more freely and trade less long gamma. Everyday last week the market would rally into the bell as dealers re-hedge their gamma (buying the dips). I get worried about summer end-of-day liquidity without gamma hedging and passive demand. I think there will be also a “institutional” demand to buy hedges into Jackson Hole fulling removing the long gamma taking the street short to hedge downside. We have seen more puts and put spreads on the desk this week than any week of 2021.\n\nWednesday (7/14) SPX gamma = +$4,625B\nThursday (7/15) SPX gamma = +$3,620B\nFriday (7/16) SPX gamma = +$3,136B\nMonday (7/19) SPX gamma = +$2,698B\nTuesday (7/20) SPX Gamma = +$713B.\n\nthe Long S&P 500 gamma has been reduced by -85% in the past 5 days taking dealers less long gamma.This dynamic changes market behavior and we are seeing little demand to systematically overwrite from here even despite the move higher in vols. This is new.\n\n9. Systematic- Non-economic is already near the max exposure and have little scope to add further from here. No threshold levels have triggered so far, but it is important to note the lack of ability to add from here, which asymmetrically skews the downside.\n\nCTA- 90% percentile on 1-year rank, 84% percentile on 3-yr rank.\nGS models-$9B of equities for sale over the next week. CTA’s are sellers in an up tape, down tape, down big tape. That’s not common. Check out big asymmetry to the downside over the next 1 month.\nGS short term CTA ES1 Flip Level= $4,257.90. We tripped this circuit breaker yesterday, but are higher this am. I expect GS sell expectations to increase.\n\n\nb) Vol Control - 86% percentile on 1-year rank, 75% percentile on 3-yr rank. FYI. SPX Put/Call Ratio hit a fresh 1 year high yesterday.\n\nc) Risk Parity - 100% percentile on 1-year rank, 53% percentile on 3-yr rank.\n\nd) Total Systematic - 92% percentile on 1-year rank, 80% percentile on 3-yr rank. This is important. This non-emotional demand is at the max and will be sellers lower.\n\n10. Liquidity- The unofficial Rubner out of office outlook (OOO) reply meter. My note last week has week had the largest out of office kickbacks to the tune of “see you in a few weeks” or “gone fishing”. The upcoming calendar into Jackson Hole is important.\n\nnext few weeks, extended vacation schedule first time in 12 months, etc, moved forward because Jackson hole.\nJackson Hole, August 26 (Thursday) - August 28 (Saturday) – Friday is the likely the key calendar, but potentially Saturday will be important. This moves hedges to the following week.\nLabor Day, September 6 (Monday exchange holiday) - late this year\napproximate First day of Children’s school, September 7 (Tuesday)\nLiquidity = August Summer – ZZZZ. Top book liquidity declined SUBSTANTIALLY into the sell off yesterday.\n\n*** despite being ranked 10 in the checklist. This is really chart #1. Liquidity dried up substantially yesterday on the screens. This chart peaked at $36M last Monday to $10.810M yesterday. This is a drop of $25M $ or ~70% in on screws liquidity in 1 week.\n\n11. Buybacks: Buybacks are here, but so is equity issuance, which neutralizes the buyback impulse. As corporates meet corporates. From Sales and trading colleague, John Flood in his most recent trading note.\n“It has been a paper party and this paper is getting harder to place. Last week we priced 11 registered deals in the U.S. ($3b notional) and this week already working on another 18 ($10b). This is especially noteworthy while in the depths of July.“\n\nLast week there was $6.2 billion in equity issuance, compared with the July weekly average of $3.4 billion since 2000.\nLast week there were 27 equity deals brought to market, compared with the July average of 15 deals per week since 2000.\n\n\nBottom Line:Keep Tactical Flow of Funds Checklist on your radar for August. The technical market structure dynamics changes substantially during August. I think there will be a dip (-5%) and it is meant to be bought heading late into Jackson Hole.The consensus is calling for a larger equity market correction, I do not see it given the amount of capital in the system. I change my tone if we trigger key levels to the downside as sellers are lower. If August outflows actually happen, I think tech underperforms cyclical value reopen given high concentration and largest passive impact.Once we see the first outflow in August, this will be the macro trigger for a tactical short. Stay tuned and keep an eye on liquidity.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{".IXIC":0.9,".DJI":0.9,".SPX":0.9,"SPY":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2395,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":176646649,"gmtCreate":1626882469481,"gmtModify":1703479963223,"author":{"id":"3577406057864778","authorId":"3577406057864778","name":"Tleestics","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/bd56a14c2c00de395c9704b1539dc5d1","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3577406057864778","authorIdStr":"3577406057864778"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/DIDI\">$DiDi Global Inc.(DIDI)$</a>When is this going to the moon","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/DIDI\">$DiDi Global Inc.(DIDI)$</a>When is this going to the moon","text":"$DiDi Global Inc.(DIDI)$When is this going to the 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href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/SQQQ\">$ProShares UltraPro Short QQQ(SQQQ)$</a>Thoughts on this coming week?","text":"$ProShares UltraPro Short QQQ(SQQQ)$Thoughts on this coming week?","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/124250438","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":811,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":165912156,"gmtCreate":1624086512075,"gmtModify":1703828606042,"author":{"id":"3577406057864778","authorId":"3577406057864778","name":"Tleestics","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/bd56a14c2c00de395c9704b1539dc5d1","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3577406057864778","authorIdStr":"3577406057864778"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"We need a reversal","listText":"We need a reversal","text":"We need a reversal","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/165912156","repostId":"1156696708","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":773,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":165912977,"gmtCreate":1624086491899,"gmtModify":1703828605879,"author":{"id":"3577406057864778","authorId":"3577406057864778","name":"Tleestics","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/bd56a14c2c00de395c9704b1539dc5d1","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3577406057864778","authorIdStr":"3577406057864778"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Anything good?","listText":"Anything good?","text":"Anything 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href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BIDU\">$Baidu(BIDU)$</a>HODL","text":"$Baidu(BIDU)$HODL","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6f661ee81ed6a3144de521ace006d77d","width":"1125","height":"1949"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/166090326","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":676,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":168776511,"gmtCreate":1623984827633,"gmtModify":1703825604768,"author":{"id":"3577406057864778","authorId":"3577406057864778","name":"Tleestics","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/bd56a14c2c00de395c9704b1539dc5d1","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3577406057864778","authorIdStr":"3577406057864778"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/Z74.SI\">$SINGTEL(Z74.SI)$</a>Why is it dropping&nbsp;","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/Z74.SI\">$SINGTEL(Z74.SI)$</a>Why is it dropping&nbsp;","text":"$SINGTEL(Z74.SI)$Why is it dropping","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/168776511","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":689,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0}],"hots":[{"id":172860772,"gmtCreate":1626951992496,"gmtModify":1703481201420,"author":{"id":"3577406057864778","authorId":"3577406057864778","name":"Tleestics","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/bd56a14c2c00de395c9704b1539dc5d1","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3577406057864778","idStr":"3577406057864778"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Telling others it’s gonna drop so they can buy the dip…","listText":"Telling others it’s gonna drop so they can buy the dip…","text":"Telling others it’s gonna drop so they can buy the dip…","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":8,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/172860772","repostId":"1192458370","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1192458370","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1626938362,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1192458370?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2021-07-22 15:19","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Entering The Worst Seasonal Period Of The Year, And 10 Other Reasons Why Goldman Braces For An August Correction","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1192458370","media":"zerohedge","summary":"In a stark reversal to its bullish sentiment at the start of the month, when the bank first noted - ","content":"<p>In a stark reversal to its bullish sentiment at the start of the month, when the bank first noted - correctly - that the S&amp;P was entering itsbest 2-week seasonal period of the yearwhich it did between July 1 and 15 when it posted a series of new all time highs (before dumping on the 16th and the 19th)...</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e7dc88222112e4655f492c56509f9d64\" tg-width=\"1280\" tg-height=\"467\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p>... followed by a lengthy rationalization why \"the shorts will have to cover\", Goldman has been turning surprisingly bearish in recent days, and two days after Goldman flow trader John Flood urged Goldman clients \"not to buy this dip\" on Monday (spoiler alert: they did) his trading desk colleague Scott Rubner has published a report previewing why he anticipates a correction in the coming days and continuing through the Jackson Hole symposium at the end of August.</p>\n<p>His note, from which we excerpt below, contains the key arguments behind Goldman's August \"correction\" thesis, including tactical flow of funds, an acceleration of sellers, and feedback from the GS equity trading floor.</p>\n<p>So without further ado, here is Rubner, who lays out his \"<b><i>11 point checklist for an August correction\"</i></b>, starting by noting that \"<i>the #1 question that has hit my inbox/IB in the past 48 hours. What happens to the equity market when there is an outflow and buy demand slows?</i>\" As we read below, the most appropriate answer is \"nothing good.\"</p>\n<blockquote>\n <i>11 point Checklist - Consensus client feedback for a quick equity risk reduction into potentially lower buy demand into Jackson hole. The consensus feedback seems to be calling for a -5% correction, which really gets to -4%. This is a recap of the talking points about to hit your inbox this week. I think this morning’s rally gets faded as buy tickets are completed early in the day.</i> \n <i><b>“Selling rallies” is the new dynamic vs. buying dips.</b></i>\n</blockquote>\n<p><u><b>1. Weak Seasonals</b></u>- Since 1928, we just exited the best two-week period of the year. Friday’s option expiry ended the best seasonal period of the year.<b>August seasonals are not market friendly and trend lower all of August, for the 4th worst two-week seasonal period of the year</b>. Today you are here and Jackson hole is the low point of this chart. Since 1950, there have been 19 times in 72 years that the S&amp;P is up at least &gt;10% through the first half of the year. The median return for August specifically, following a strong 1H is typically down -51bps, before rallying higher.</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f41d55d3d45aecb40b0f24e53de17363\" tg-width=\"694\" tg-height=\"499\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p><u><b>2. Largest outflows of the year</b></u>- Investors allocate capital into the market in July and we have seen these record inflows. This is the biggest dynamic in the equity market this year period. Inflows continue at a record pace, annualizing at $1.2 trillion inflows for 2021. 401k inflows predominately flowed in S&amp;P and NDX rather than ROW.</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9d67c2e0a1590d44ff3be03c2c86c88e\" tg-width=\"645\" tg-height=\"368\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a58d02645303f22b7e53b58698e11f56\" tg-width=\"508\" tg-height=\"338\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p><u><b>3. Reversal of flows predicted for August</b></u>- Equity inflows are not common in August. Over the last 30 years,<b>August typically sees the largest outflows of the year</b>. -15bps of AUM typically leaves stock market funds in August, on ~22 Trillion, we model -$33B worth of equities for sale.</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3308ac184f4fde82ba6c27fbcfbdd86f\" tg-width=\"579\" tg-height=\"340\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/005f51048f49a72597db950884245e8c\" tg-width=\"563\" tg-height=\"351\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p><b><u>4. Outflows cont.</u></b>To be clear, -$33B is not a significant $ figure when adjusted for market cap, however more important is that it’s not an inflow. The index level has remained at ATHs given inflows bid up the largest and biggest market cap index weights. On Monday we saw a large MOC imbalance for sale, this was unusual.</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d98939cb6e06e80bc643fdca6801fb0a\" tg-width=\"268\" tg-height=\"474\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p><u><b>5. Passive flows drive largest marketcaps</b></u>- Passive ETFs logged the best full year of inflows on record, in just the first half of the year. (+500b). I watch the tape every day register large MOC imbalances to buy at 3:50pm EST,<b>but what if this dynamic fades.</b>Remember $1 inflow into SPY flows $.23 cents into top 5 companies and $1 inflow into QQQ flows $.41 cents into top 5. If inflows flip to outflows you will no longer see broad index dynamic.<b>Then investors need to decide which sector becomes the funding source for outflows.</b></p>\n<p>Just how important has this been for the S&amp;P 500? Important!</p>\n<ul>\n <li>Global Equity: 1-year: +$600B passive (IN) vs. $0.0B active (OUT) = &gt;$600B.</li>\n <li>Global Equity: 5-year: +$2.30T passive (IN) vs. -$1.90T active (OUT) = &gt;$4.2T</li>\n <li>Global Equity: 10-year: +$4T passive (IN) vs. -$3.0T active (OUT) = &gt;$7.0T</li>\n <li>Current Global Equity Active AUM of $10.099T exceeds &gt; Current Global Equity Passive AUM $7.225 T.</li>\n</ul>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/72aadadcd243a659f1e3cc9fc8f75c1b\" tg-width=\"666\" tg-height=\"375\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5419e040f7d023061743d473ffef59d1\" tg-width=\"666\" tg-height=\"375\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4fff3382eec0b783b12411fb653c6718\" tg-width=\"663\" tg-height=\"377\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p><i>Side note: ETFs represented 36% of the notional executed volumes, last levels since in March/April 2020. (YTD average) = 24%. Did you see the massive volumes in SQQQ Monday (3x short QQQ)?</i></p>\n<p><u><b>6. Single Stock Calls</b></u>- This is set up is very similar to July and August 2020 blow-off top as a result of call option trading. Reminder, S&amp;P sold off -392bps in September 2020 after call option volumes started to fade.</p>\n<ul>\n <li>Option notional has averaged an all-time record of +$550B per day in July. The top 3 traded stocks (AAPL, AMZN, and TSLA) make up $300B of daily volumes. Breadth in both options and stocks is low.</li>\n <li>\"Of 4000 Tradeable Single Stock options, the top 3 names make up 56% of the daily avg notional traded. Adding in the next 7, that ratio jumps to 72%.\"</li>\n <li>\"Said another way the top 10 underliers trade 3x more notional on an average day than the bottom 3990”</li>\n <li>This is an important dynamic to monitor.</li>\n</ul>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/be539bca2d8b556e65d32bbe28f2abb4\" tg-width=\"676\" tg-height=\"441\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p><u><b>7. Call Options cont.</b></u>- Retail has pivoted from trading weekly call options on GME and AMC - only $6B combined notional per day to the stay-at-home playbook. The names with the highest daily option trading are also the largest index weights. In addition to ETF flows, the retail call option buying frenzy also takes the street short weekly gamma on single names. 75% of single stock options traded today have an expiry of two weeks or less.<b>Said another way, given GS YOLO risk sentiment basket has rolled over, does AAPL need to catch down next (or at least not see YOLO flows).</b></p>\n<p>$181bln/day AMZN</p>\n<p>$ 82bln/day TSLA</p>\n<p>$ 36bln/day AAPL</p>\n<p>--------------</p>\n<p><b>TOTAL TSLA/AMZN/AAPL: $299bln/day&nbsp; ------- What happens if call volume in mega cap tech declines?</b></p>\n<ul>\n <li>$ 26bln/day NVDA</li>\n <li>$ 14bln/day GOOGL</li>\n <li>$ 11bln/day FB</li>\n <li>$ 10bln/day MSFT</li>\n <li>$&nbsp; 8bln/day SHOP</li>\n <li>$&nbsp; 8bln/day GOOG</li>\n <li>$&nbsp; 8bln/day NFLX</li>\n <li>$&nbsp; 7bln/day BABA</li>\n</ul>\n<p>--------------</p>\n<p><b>TOTAL GOOG/GOOGL/MSFT/FB/NFLX/NVDA/SHOP/BABA: $90bln/day</b></p>\n<ul>\n <li>$&nbsp; 4bln/day AMC</li>\n <li>$&nbsp; 2bln/day GME</li>\n</ul>\n<p>--------------</p>\n<p><b>TOTAL AMC/GME: $6bln/day&nbsp; ------- No Mo’ Yolo? See chart below.</b></p>\n<p>All other underlyings: $141bln/day</p>\n<p><u><i><b>Total single stock option market:</b></i></u></p>\n<ul>\n <li>$299bln/day TSLA/AMZN/AAPL</li>\n <li>$ 90bln/day GOOG/GOOGL/MSFT/FB/NFLX/NVDA/SHOP/BABA</li>\n <li>$&nbsp; 6bln/day AMC/GME</li>\n <li>$141bln/day All other underlyings</li>\n</ul>\n<p>--------------------</p>\n<p><b>$537bln/day Total</b></p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1f5678ad5b66dd918c2cbb51263c9df0\" tg-width=\"650\" tg-height=\"450\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p><b><u>8. Option Gamma Unwinds</u></b>- Option Expiry just rolled off -85% of the market long gamma. The market now has the ability to move more freely and trade less long gamma. Everyday last week the market would rally into the bell as dealers re-hedge their gamma (buying the dips). I get worried about summer end-of-day liquidity without gamma hedging and passive demand. I think there will be also a “institutional” demand to buy hedges into Jackson Hole fulling removing the long gamma taking the street short to hedge downside. We have seen more puts and put spreads on the desk this week than any week of 2021.</p>\n<ul>\n <li>Wednesday (7/14) SPX gamma = +$4,625B</li>\n <li>Thursday (7/15) SPX gamma = +$3,620B</li>\n <li>Friday (7/16) SPX gamma = +$3,136B</li>\n <li>Monday (7/19) SPX gamma = +$2,698B</li>\n <li>Tuesday (7/20) SPX Gamma = +$713B.</li>\n</ul>\n<p><b>the Long S&amp;P 500 gamma has been reduced by -85% in the past 5 days taking dealers less long gamma.</b>This dynamic changes market behavior and we are seeing little demand to systematically overwrite from here even despite the move higher in vols. This is new.</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b78215d53696f99f4c746f296ae2d225\" tg-width=\"797\" tg-height=\"598\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p><u><b>9. Systematic</b></u>- Non-economic is already near the max exposure and have little scope to add further from here. No threshold levels have triggered so far, but it is important to note the lack of ability to add from here, which asymmetrically skews the downside.</p>\n<ul>\n <li><b>CTA</b>- 90% percentile on 1-year rank, 84% percentile on 3-yr rank.</li>\n <li><b>GS models</b>-$9B of equities for sale over the next week. CTA’s are sellers in an up tape, down tape, down big tape. That’s not common. Check out big asymmetry to the downside over the next 1 month.</li>\n <li><b>GS short term CTA ES1 Flip Level</b>= $4,257.90. We tripped this circuit breaker yesterday, but are higher this am. I expect GS sell expectations to increase.</li>\n</ul>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3efe5f0b54f671b5c1b366ff5514cf5c\" tg-width=\"751\" tg-height=\"323\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/232a48ec7525cb179f6cd8bc285b7e55\" tg-width=\"499\" tg-height=\"300\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p><b>b) Vol Control - 86% percentile on 1-year rank, 75% percentile on 3-yr rank. FYI. SPX Put/Call Ratio hit a fresh 1 year high yesterday.</b></p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a5553785fd8a0a66e717f5579ba6ee91\" tg-width=\"500\" tg-height=\"300\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p><b>c) Risk Parity - 100% percentile on 1-year rank, 53% percentile on 3-yr rank.</b></p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9be4d94aa1cd38dad335c1424d3be626\" tg-width=\"500\" tg-height=\"300\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p><b>d) Total Systematic - 92% percentile on 1-year rank, 80% percentile on 3-yr rank. This is important. This non-emotional demand is at the max and will be sellers lower.</b></p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4068fa4e9a8c6c06f77627c9ee6e07b8\" tg-width=\"500\" tg-height=\"300\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p><u><b>10. Liquidity</b></u>- The unofficial Rubner out of office outlook (OOO) reply meter. My note last week has week had the largest out of office kickbacks to the tune of “see you in a few weeks” or “gone fishing”. The upcoming calendar into Jackson Hole is important.</p>\n<ol>\n <li>next few weeks, extended vacation schedule first time in 12 months, etc, moved forward because Jackson hole.</li>\n <li>Jackson Hole, August 26 (Thursday) - August 28 (Saturday) – Friday is the likely the key calendar, but potentially Saturday will be important. This moves hedges to the following week.</li>\n <li>Labor Day, September 6 (Monday exchange holiday) - late this year</li>\n <li>approximate First day of Children’s school, September 7 (Tuesday)</li>\n <li>Liquidity = August Summer – ZZZZ. Top book liquidity declined SUBSTANTIALLY into the sell off yesterday.</li>\n</ol>\n<p>*** despite being ranked 10 in the checklist. This is really chart #1. Liquidity dried up substantially yesterday on the screens. This chart peaked at $36M last Monday to $10.810M yesterday. This is a drop of $25M $ or ~70% in on screws liquidity in 1 week.</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/60db9087f28d7496be38eafbc0fa755e\" tg-width=\"650\" tg-height=\"450\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p><u><b>11. Buybacks</b></u>: Buybacks are here, but so is equity issuance, which neutralizes the buyback impulse. As corporates meet corporates. From Sales and trading colleague, John Flood in his most recent trading note.</p>\n<p><i>“It has been a paper party and this paper is getting harder to place. Last week we priced 11 registered deals in the U.S. ($3b notional) and this week already working on another 18 ($10b). This is especially noteworthy while in the depths of July.“</i></p>\n<ul>\n <li>Last week there was $6.2 billion in equity issuance, compared with the July weekly average of $3.4 billion since 2000.</li>\n <li>Last week there were 27 equity deals brought to market, compared with the July average of 15 deals per week since 2000.</li>\n</ul>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b680be938f506ba528c382fdb7d805ba\" tg-width=\"897\" tg-height=\"606\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p><i><b>Bottom Line:</b></i><i>Keep Tactical Flow of Funds Checklist on your radar for August. The technical market structure dynamics changes substantially during August</i><i><b>. I think there will be a dip (-5%) and it is meant to be bought heading late into Jackson Hole.</b></i><i>The consensus is calling for a larger equity market correction, I do not see it given the amount of capital in the system. I change my tone if we trigger key levels to the downside as sellers are lower. If August outflows actually happen, I think tech underperforms cyclical value reopen given high concentration and largest passive impact.</i><i><b>Once we see the first outflow in August, this will be the macro trigger for a tactical short</b></i><i>. Stay tuned and keep an eye on liquidity.</i></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Entering The Worst Seasonal Period Of The Year, And 10 Other Reasons Why Goldman Braces For An August Correction</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nEntering The Worst Seasonal Period Of The Year, And 10 Other Reasons Why Goldman Braces For An August Correction\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-07-22 15:19 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/entering-worst-seasonal-period-year-and-10-other-reasons-why-goldman-braces-august><strong>zerohedge</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>In a stark reversal to its bullish sentiment at the start of the month, when the bank first noted - correctly - that the S&P was entering itsbest 2-week seasonal period of the yearwhich it did between...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/entering-worst-seasonal-period-year-and-10-other-reasons-why-goldman-braces-august\">Source Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{".SPX":"S&P 500 Index",".DJI":"道琼斯","SPY":"标普500ETF",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite"},"source_url":"https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/entering-worst-seasonal-period-year-and-10-other-reasons-why-goldman-braces-august","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1192458370","content_text":"In a stark reversal to its bullish sentiment at the start of the month, when the bank first noted - correctly - that the S&P was entering itsbest 2-week seasonal period of the yearwhich it did between July 1 and 15 when it posted a series of new all time highs (before dumping on the 16th and the 19th)...\n\n... followed by a lengthy rationalization why \"the shorts will have to cover\", Goldman has been turning surprisingly bearish in recent days, and two days after Goldman flow trader John Flood urged Goldman clients \"not to buy this dip\" on Monday (spoiler alert: they did) his trading desk colleague Scott Rubner has published a report previewing why he anticipates a correction in the coming days and continuing through the Jackson Hole symposium at the end of August.\nHis note, from which we excerpt below, contains the key arguments behind Goldman's August \"correction\" thesis, including tactical flow of funds, an acceleration of sellers, and feedback from the GS equity trading floor.\nSo without further ado, here is Rubner, who lays out his \"11 point checklist for an August correction\", starting by noting that \"the #1 question that has hit my inbox/IB in the past 48 hours. What happens to the equity market when there is an outflow and buy demand slows?\" As we read below, the most appropriate answer is \"nothing good.\"\n\n11 point Checklist - Consensus client feedback for a quick equity risk reduction into potentially lower buy demand into Jackson hole. The consensus feedback seems to be calling for a -5% correction, which really gets to -4%. This is a recap of the talking points about to hit your inbox this week. I think this morning’s rally gets faded as buy tickets are completed early in the day.\n“Selling rallies” is the new dynamic vs. buying dips.\n\n1. Weak Seasonals- Since 1928, we just exited the best two-week period of the year. Friday’s option expiry ended the best seasonal period of the year.August seasonals are not market friendly and trend lower all of August, for the 4th worst two-week seasonal period of the year. Today you are here and Jackson hole is the low point of this chart. Since 1950, there have been 19 times in 72 years that the S&P is up at least >10% through the first half of the year. The median return for August specifically, following a strong 1H is typically down -51bps, before rallying higher.\n\n2. Largest outflows of the year- Investors allocate capital into the market in July and we have seen these record inflows. This is the biggest dynamic in the equity market this year period. Inflows continue at a record pace, annualizing at $1.2 trillion inflows for 2021. 401k inflows predominately flowed in S&P and NDX rather than ROW.\n\n3. Reversal of flows predicted for August- Equity inflows are not common in August. Over the last 30 years,August typically sees the largest outflows of the year. -15bps of AUM typically leaves stock market funds in August, on ~22 Trillion, we model -$33B worth of equities for sale.\n\n4. Outflows cont.To be clear, -$33B is not a significant $ figure when adjusted for market cap, however more important is that it’s not an inflow. The index level has remained at ATHs given inflows bid up the largest and biggest market cap index weights. On Monday we saw a large MOC imbalance for sale, this was unusual.\n\n5. Passive flows drive largest marketcaps- Passive ETFs logged the best full year of inflows on record, in just the first half of the year. (+500b). I watch the tape every day register large MOC imbalances to buy at 3:50pm EST,but what if this dynamic fades.Remember $1 inflow into SPY flows $.23 cents into top 5 companies and $1 inflow into QQQ flows $.41 cents into top 5. If inflows flip to outflows you will no longer see broad index dynamic.Then investors need to decide which sector becomes the funding source for outflows.\nJust how important has this been for the S&P 500? Important!\n\nGlobal Equity: 1-year: +$600B passive (IN) vs. $0.0B active (OUT) = >$600B.\nGlobal Equity: 5-year: +$2.30T passive (IN) vs. -$1.90T active (OUT) = >$4.2T\nGlobal Equity: 10-year: +$4T passive (IN) vs. -$3.0T active (OUT) = >$7.0T\nCurrent Global Equity Active AUM of $10.099T exceeds > Current Global Equity Passive AUM $7.225 T.\n\n\nSide note: ETFs represented 36% of the notional executed volumes, last levels since in March/April 2020. (YTD average) = 24%. Did you see the massive volumes in SQQQ Monday (3x short QQQ)?\n6. Single Stock Calls- This is set up is very similar to July and August 2020 blow-off top as a result of call option trading. Reminder, S&P sold off -392bps in September 2020 after call option volumes started to fade.\n\nOption notional has averaged an all-time record of +$550B per day in July. The top 3 traded stocks (AAPL, AMZN, and TSLA) make up $300B of daily volumes. Breadth in both options and stocks is low.\n\"Of 4000 Tradeable Single Stock options, the top 3 names make up 56% of the daily avg notional traded. Adding in the next 7, that ratio jumps to 72%.\"\n\"Said another way the top 10 underliers trade 3x more notional on an average day than the bottom 3990”\nThis is an important dynamic to monitor.\n\n\n7. Call Options cont.- Retail has pivoted from trading weekly call options on GME and AMC - only $6B combined notional per day to the stay-at-home playbook. The names with the highest daily option trading are also the largest index weights. In addition to ETF flows, the retail call option buying frenzy also takes the street short weekly gamma on single names. 75% of single stock options traded today have an expiry of two weeks or less.Said another way, given GS YOLO risk sentiment basket has rolled over, does AAPL need to catch down next (or at least not see YOLO flows).\n$181bln/day AMZN\n$ 82bln/day TSLA\n$ 36bln/day AAPL\n--------------\nTOTAL TSLA/AMZN/AAPL: $299bln/day  ------- What happens if call volume in mega cap tech declines?\n\n$ 26bln/day NVDA\n$ 14bln/day GOOGL\n$ 11bln/day FB\n$ 10bln/day MSFT\n$  8bln/day SHOP\n$  8bln/day GOOG\n$  8bln/day NFLX\n$  7bln/day BABA\n\n--------------\nTOTAL GOOG/GOOGL/MSFT/FB/NFLX/NVDA/SHOP/BABA: $90bln/day\n\n$  4bln/day AMC\n$  2bln/day GME\n\n--------------\nTOTAL AMC/GME: $6bln/day  ------- No Mo’ Yolo? See chart below.\nAll other underlyings: $141bln/day\nTotal single stock option market:\n\n$299bln/day TSLA/AMZN/AAPL\n$ 90bln/day GOOG/GOOGL/MSFT/FB/NFLX/NVDA/SHOP/BABA\n$  6bln/day AMC/GME\n$141bln/day All other underlyings\n\n--------------------\n$537bln/day Total\n\n8. Option Gamma Unwinds- Option Expiry just rolled off -85% of the market long gamma. The market now has the ability to move more freely and trade less long gamma. Everyday last week the market would rally into the bell as dealers re-hedge their gamma (buying the dips). I get worried about summer end-of-day liquidity without gamma hedging and passive demand. I think there will be also a “institutional” demand to buy hedges into Jackson Hole fulling removing the long gamma taking the street short to hedge downside. We have seen more puts and put spreads on the desk this week than any week of 2021.\n\nWednesday (7/14) SPX gamma = +$4,625B\nThursday (7/15) SPX gamma = +$3,620B\nFriday (7/16) SPX gamma = +$3,136B\nMonday (7/19) SPX gamma = +$2,698B\nTuesday (7/20) SPX Gamma = +$713B.\n\nthe Long S&P 500 gamma has been reduced by -85% in the past 5 days taking dealers less long gamma.This dynamic changes market behavior and we are seeing little demand to systematically overwrite from here even despite the move higher in vols. This is new.\n\n9. Systematic- Non-economic is already near the max exposure and have little scope to add further from here. No threshold levels have triggered so far, but it is important to note the lack of ability to add from here, which asymmetrically skews the downside.\n\nCTA- 90% percentile on 1-year rank, 84% percentile on 3-yr rank.\nGS models-$9B of equities for sale over the next week. CTA’s are sellers in an up tape, down tape, down big tape. That’s not common. Check out big asymmetry to the downside over the next 1 month.\nGS short term CTA ES1 Flip Level= $4,257.90. We tripped this circuit breaker yesterday, but are higher this am. I expect GS sell expectations to increase.\n\n\nb) Vol Control - 86% percentile on 1-year rank, 75% percentile on 3-yr rank. FYI. SPX Put/Call Ratio hit a fresh 1 year high yesterday.\n\nc) Risk Parity - 100% percentile on 1-year rank, 53% percentile on 3-yr rank.\n\nd) Total Systematic - 92% percentile on 1-year rank, 80% percentile on 3-yr rank. This is important. This non-emotional demand is at the max and will be sellers lower.\n\n10. Liquidity- The unofficial Rubner out of office outlook (OOO) reply meter. My note last week has week had the largest out of office kickbacks to the tune of “see you in a few weeks” or “gone fishing”. The upcoming calendar into Jackson Hole is important.\n\nnext few weeks, extended vacation schedule first time in 12 months, etc, moved forward because Jackson hole.\nJackson Hole, August 26 (Thursday) - August 28 (Saturday) – Friday is the likely the key calendar, but potentially Saturday will be important. This moves hedges to the following week.\nLabor Day, September 6 (Monday exchange holiday) - late this year\napproximate First day of Children’s school, September 7 (Tuesday)\nLiquidity = August Summer – ZZZZ. Top book liquidity declined SUBSTANTIALLY into the sell off yesterday.\n\n*** despite being ranked 10 in the checklist. This is really chart #1. Liquidity dried up substantially yesterday on the screens. This chart peaked at $36M last Monday to $10.810M yesterday. This is a drop of $25M $ or ~70% in on screws liquidity in 1 week.\n\n11. Buybacks: Buybacks are here, but so is equity issuance, which neutralizes the buyback impulse. As corporates meet corporates. From Sales and trading colleague, John Flood in his most recent trading note.\n“It has been a paper party and this paper is getting harder to place. Last week we priced 11 registered deals in the U.S. ($3b notional) and this week already working on another 18 ($10b). This is especially noteworthy while in the depths of July.“\n\nLast week there was $6.2 billion in equity issuance, compared with the July weekly average of $3.4 billion since 2000.\nLast week there were 27 equity deals brought to market, compared with the July average of 15 deals per week since 2000.\n\n\nBottom Line:Keep Tactical Flow of Funds Checklist on your radar for August. The technical market structure dynamics changes substantially during August. I think there will be a dip (-5%) and it is meant to be bought heading late into Jackson Hole.The consensus is calling for a larger equity market correction, I do not see it given the amount of capital in the system. I change my tone if we trigger key levels to the downside as sellers are lower. If August outflows actually happen, I think tech underperforms cyclical value reopen given high concentration and largest passive impact.Once we see the first outflow in August, this will be the macro trigger for a tactical short. Stay tuned and keep an eye on liquidity.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{".IXIC":0.9,".DJI":0.9,".SPX":0.9,"SPY":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2395,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":808186302,"gmtCreate":1627565241606,"gmtModify":1703492457415,"author":{"id":"3577406057864778","authorId":"3577406057864778","name":"Tleestics","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/bd56a14c2c00de395c9704b1539dc5d1","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3577406057864778","idStr":"3577406057864778"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/DIDI\">$DiDi Global Inc.(DIDI)$</a>Pretend to deny privatisation and share buy back at low price. Smart move Didi","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/DIDI\">$DiDi Global Inc.(DIDI)$</a>Pretend to deny privatisation and share buy back at low price. Smart move Didi","text":"$DiDi Global Inc.(DIDI)$Pretend to deny privatisation and share buy back at low price. Smart move Didi","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":2,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/808186302","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2713,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":165912156,"gmtCreate":1624086512075,"gmtModify":1703828606042,"author":{"id":"3577406057864778","authorId":"3577406057864778","name":"Tleestics","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/bd56a14c2c00de395c9704b1539dc5d1","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3577406057864778","idStr":"3577406057864778"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"We need a reversal","listText":"We need a reversal","text":"We need a reversal","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/165912156","repostId":"1156696708","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":773,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":323273907,"gmtCreate":1615349833009,"gmtModify":1704781518402,"author":{"id":"3577406057864778","authorId":"3577406057864778","name":"Tleestics","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/bd56a14c2c00de395c9704b1539dc5d1","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3577406057864778","idStr":"3577406057864778"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Wew","listText":"Wew","text":"Wew","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/323273907","repostId":"1171122528","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1171122528","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1615348428,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1171122528?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2021-03-10 11:53","market":"us","language":"en","title":"The global recovery is gaining speed. There are still huge risks","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1171122528","media":"cnn","summary":"London (CNN Business) Finally, some good news: The outlook for the global economy is clearly improvi","content":"<p>London (CNN Business)&nbsp;Finally, some good news: The outlook for the global economy is clearly improving.</p><p>What's happening: The Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development unveiled major upgrades to its global forecast on Tuesday. It said that \"economic prospects have improved markedly in recent months,\" pointing to the deployment of coronavirus vaccines and additional stimulus announcements.</p><p>The Paris-based agency now expects the world economy to grow by 5.6% in 2021, an improvement of more than one percentage point from its estimate in December.</p><p>The US economy is predicted to expand by 6.5% this year, over three percentage points better than the December forecast. The agency pointed to the effects of \"strong fiscal support\" from President Joe Biden's $1.9 trillion stimulus package.</p><p>But the OECD also emphasized that extreme uncertainty remains, and that plenty of factors could jeopardize the recovery.</p><p>One example: Investors have become increasingly concerned that a rush of activity could trigger a spike in prices later this year, forcing central banks to raise interest rates or taper bond purchases sooner than expected.</p><p>According to the OECD, a rebound in demand, especially from China, is pushing up food and metals prices, while oil prices have staged a strong comeback. But the group said it will be essential for policymakers to keep the stimulus coming, even if inflation overshoots some targets.</p><p>The possibility of a sharp rise in prices is far from the only fear.</p><p>The agency noted that vaccine campaigns are moving at different speeds around the world, and coronavirus variants that resist vaccines could still emerge.</p><p>\"Slow progress in vaccine rollout and the emergence of new virus mutations resistant to existing vaccines would result in a weaker recovery, larger job losses and more business failures,\" it said in its report.</p><p>The OECD also said that it's essential that governments maintain their support for the economy even as the situation starts to brighten. European Central Bank President Christine Lagarde has issued a similar warning, cautioning that countries should not \"brutally\" pull stimulus.</p><p>\"A premature tightening of fiscal policy must be avoided,\" the group said.</p><p>Another worry is high levels of debt. The OECD focused on corporate debt loads, in particular, with debt servicing burdens at or above their level during the 2008 financial crisis even though interest rates are at historic lows.</p><p>\"Although some firms have used borrowing to build up sizable cash buffers since the onset of the pandemic, high leverage could moderate new investment,\" it said. If the recovery is slower than expected, or government support programs end too soon, this could \"trigger additional debt delinquencies or defaults.\"</p><p>Right now, these are just hypotheticals. But so are expectations of booming growth, which are due to play out in the coming months. The OECD report is a reminder that while the outlook is brightening, it's also tentative.</p><p><b>These stocks are thriving while Big Tech gets hammered</b></p><p>Tech companies are clearly the big losers in markets right now. Apple is nearing bear market territory, while the tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite entered a correction on Monday, having dropped 10.5% below the record it notched in mid-February.</p><p>But plenty of firms are benefiting from the stock market rotation, as investors give companies they'd dumped earlier in the pandemic a second look.</p><p>See here: Disney (DIS) shares jumped more than 6% Monday, while Visa (V) and American Express (AXP) both rose 2%.</p><p>These firms all stand to benefit if a strong economic rebound materializes later this year, sparking a surge in travel and consumer spending. They're getting more attention as Biden's $1.9 trillion stimulus bill heads back to the House of Representatives, where it's on track for a final vote Wednesday.</p><p>Other winners: Shares of Southwest Airlines (LUV) gained 6.4% on Monday, while Gap (GPS) rose 5.8%. JPMorgan Chase's stock rose more than 1%.</p><p>This divide — fueled by Wall Street's growing interest in shares that may be undervalued — helps explain why the major US stock indexes have diverged in recent days. While the Nasdaq Composite plunged 2.4% on Monday, the Dow rose almost 1%.</p><p>Analysts think the trend could continue if government bond yields keep pushing higher, making high-growth tech companies less attractive.</p><p>\"The imminent passage of another huge fiscal support package in the US adds to our conviction that the reflation and rotation trends currently underway in bond and equity markets both have further to run,\" Oliver Jones, senior markets economist at Capital Economics, said in a note to clients.</p><p><b>ViacomCBS shares are riding high</b></p><p>There's no escaping Prince Harry and Meghan Markle's blockbuster interview with Oprah this week. That's good news for ViacomCBS (VIACA), which aired the interview in the United States.</p><p>Shares of the media giant soared nearly 13% on Monday, reaching an all-time high. The interview drew 17 million viewers when it aired Sunday, according to Nielsen's TV ratings scale.</p><p>Some context: CBS averaged 6.5 million viewers in prime time the previous Sunday night, my CNN Business colleague Brian Stelter reports. The two-hour special was also higher-rated than the most recent Emmys and Golden Globes award telecasts.</p><p>Watch this space: ViacomCBS shares were already riding high thanks to the launch of its Paramount+ streaming service, which debuted earlier this month. Whether the run-up can continue may depend on how many subscribers the company can nab in an increasingly crowded space.</p><p><b>Up next</b></p><p>The Children's Place (PLCE) and Dick's Sporting Goods (DKS) report results before US markets open. H&amp;R Block (HRB) follows after the close.</p><p>Coming tomorrow: A key measure of inflation for February will provide fresh insight for investors nervous about higher prices.</p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>The global recovery is gaining speed. There are still huge risks</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nThe global recovery is gaining speed. There are still huge risks\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-03-10 11:53 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://edition.cnn.com/2021/03/09/investing/premarket-stocks-trading/index.html><strong>cnn</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>London (CNN Business) Finally, some good news: The outlook for the global economy is clearly improving.What's happening: The Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development unveiled major ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://edition.cnn.com/2021/03/09/investing/premarket-stocks-trading/index.html\">Source Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{},"source_url":"https://edition.cnn.com/2021/03/09/investing/premarket-stocks-trading/index.html","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1171122528","content_text":"London (CNN Business) Finally, some good news: The outlook for the global economy is clearly improving.What's happening: The Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development unveiled major upgrades to its global forecast on Tuesday. It said that \"economic prospects have improved markedly in recent months,\" pointing to the deployment of coronavirus vaccines and additional stimulus announcements.The Paris-based agency now expects the world economy to grow by 5.6% in 2021, an improvement of more than one percentage point from its estimate in December.The US economy is predicted to expand by 6.5% this year, over three percentage points better than the December forecast. The agency pointed to the effects of \"strong fiscal support\" from President Joe Biden's $1.9 trillion stimulus package.But the OECD also emphasized that extreme uncertainty remains, and that plenty of factors could jeopardize the recovery.One example: Investors have become increasingly concerned that a rush of activity could trigger a spike in prices later this year, forcing central banks to raise interest rates or taper bond purchases sooner than expected.According to the OECD, a rebound in demand, especially from China, is pushing up food and metals prices, while oil prices have staged a strong comeback. But the group said it will be essential for policymakers to keep the stimulus coming, even if inflation overshoots some targets.The possibility of a sharp rise in prices is far from the only fear.The agency noted that vaccine campaigns are moving at different speeds around the world, and coronavirus variants that resist vaccines could still emerge.\"Slow progress in vaccine rollout and the emergence of new virus mutations resistant to existing vaccines would result in a weaker recovery, larger job losses and more business failures,\" it said in its report.The OECD also said that it's essential that governments maintain their support for the economy even as the situation starts to brighten. European Central Bank President Christine Lagarde has issued a similar warning, cautioning that countries should not \"brutally\" pull stimulus.\"A premature tightening of fiscal policy must be avoided,\" the group said.Another worry is high levels of debt. The OECD focused on corporate debt loads, in particular, with debt servicing burdens at or above their level during the 2008 financial crisis even though interest rates are at historic lows.\"Although some firms have used borrowing to build up sizable cash buffers since the onset of the pandemic, high leverage could moderate new investment,\" it said. If the recovery is slower than expected, or government support programs end too soon, this could \"trigger additional debt delinquencies or defaults.\"Right now, these are just hypotheticals. But so are expectations of booming growth, which are due to play out in the coming months. The OECD report is a reminder that while the outlook is brightening, it's also tentative.These stocks are thriving while Big Tech gets hammeredTech companies are clearly the big losers in markets right now. Apple is nearing bear market territory, while the tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite entered a correction on Monday, having dropped 10.5% below the record it notched in mid-February.But plenty of firms are benefiting from the stock market rotation, as investors give companies they'd dumped earlier in the pandemic a second look.See here: Disney (DIS) shares jumped more than 6% Monday, while Visa (V) and American Express (AXP) both rose 2%.These firms all stand to benefit if a strong economic rebound materializes later this year, sparking a surge in travel and consumer spending. They're getting more attention as Biden's $1.9 trillion stimulus bill heads back to the House of Representatives, where it's on track for a final vote Wednesday.Other winners: Shares of Southwest Airlines (LUV) gained 6.4% on Monday, while Gap (GPS) rose 5.8%. JPMorgan Chase's stock rose more than 1%.This divide — fueled by Wall Street's growing interest in shares that may be undervalued — helps explain why the major US stock indexes have diverged in recent days. While the Nasdaq Composite plunged 2.4% on Monday, the Dow rose almost 1%.Analysts think the trend could continue if government bond yields keep pushing higher, making high-growth tech companies less attractive.\"The imminent passage of another huge fiscal support package in the US adds to our conviction that the reflation and rotation trends currently underway in bond and equity markets both have further to run,\" Oliver Jones, senior markets economist at Capital Economics, said in a note to clients.ViacomCBS shares are riding highThere's no escaping Prince Harry and Meghan Markle's blockbuster interview with Oprah this week. That's good news for ViacomCBS (VIACA), which aired the interview in the United States.Shares of the media giant soared nearly 13% on Monday, reaching an all-time high. The interview drew 17 million viewers when it aired Sunday, according to Nielsen's TV ratings scale.Some context: CBS averaged 6.5 million viewers in prime time the previous Sunday night, my CNN Business colleague Brian Stelter reports. The two-hour special was also higher-rated than the most recent Emmys and Golden Globes award telecasts.Watch this space: ViacomCBS shares were already riding high thanks to the launch of its Paramount+ streaming service, which debuted earlier this month. Whether the run-up can continue may depend on how many subscribers the company can nab in an increasingly crowded space.Up nextThe Children's Place (PLCE) and Dick's Sporting Goods (DKS) report results before US markets open. H&R Block (HRB) follows after the close.Coming tomorrow: A key measure of inflation for February will provide fresh insight for investors nervous about higher prices.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":389,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":367195526,"gmtCreate":1614917802365,"gmtModify":1704776973875,"author":{"id":"3577406057864778","authorId":"3577406057864778","name":"Tleestics","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/bd56a14c2c00de395c9704b1539dc5d1","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3577406057864778","idStr":"3577406057864778"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Good read&nbsp;","listText":"Good read&nbsp;","text":"Good read","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/367195526","repostId":"1112359794","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1112359794","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1614911874,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1112359794?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2021-03-05 10:37","market":"us","language":"en","title":"A Warning From Warren Buffett: We’re a Long Way From 1981","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1112359794","media":"Nasdaq","summary":"The Berkshire Hathaway annual letter — penned, as always, by CEO Warren Buffett, now 90 years old — ","content":"<p>The Berkshire Hathaway annual letter — penned, as always, by CEO Warren Buffett, now 90 years old — came out this past weekend. </p><p>Reading the Berkshire letter, and hunting for easter eggs of Buffett bon mots and insights, has become a kind of annual tradition for much of the financial world. Analysts, money managers, journalists, and investors of all stripes tend to read it the weekend it comes out, even if they own no shares.</p><p>Your editor is one such reader: Though never a shareholder, we’ve been perusing the Buffett letters for nearly 20 years. We also have all of the old letters on file, dating back long before we were born. The best one of all, in our view, is the Buffett Partnership letter covering 1965, available&nbsp;here.</p><p>The 2021 letter felt somber and restrained compared to past years. This makes sense, given what America and the world had to go through in 2020.</p><p>Still, in terms of pessimism and dark warnings — far from the normal fare for Buffett — this passage on the “bleak future” for fixed-income investors stood out:</p><p><i>[B]onds are not the place to be these days. Can you believe that the income recently available from a 10-year U.S. Treasury bond – the yield was 0.93% at year end – had fallen 94% from the 15.8% yield available in September 1981? In certain large and important countries, such as Germany and Japan, investors earn a negative return on trillions of dollars of sovereign debt. Fixed-income investors worldwide – whether pension funds, insurance companies or retirees – face a bleak future.</i></p><p>Per Buffett’s calculation, over the course of almost four decades — from September 1981 to year-end 2020 — the yield on the 10-year note fell by 94%.</p><p>In regard to falling yields, here is another remarkable stat per Chris Bloomstran, the president and chief investment officer of Semper Augustus: As of Feb. 27, the price of the U.S. 30-year Treasury bond had fallen by more than 16% in three months — a drop that erased 10 full years’ worth of coupon payments. Also per Bloomstran, the 10-year gave up 7 years’ worth of coupons in that time.</p><p>Imagine clipping coupons on your government bonds for a full decade — then taking a hit on the principal worth all of the payments and then some, over the course of just 12 weeks. Now imagine trying to be a government bond investor moving forward.</p><p>For holders of long-dated U.S. Treasuries, the pain is increasing because the U.S. economy is reflating, powered by vaccine optimism, pent-up demand, and a tsunami of fiscal stimulus. Economic growth of the rip-roaring variety is coming, with inflation to follow on the heels of that.</p><p>If you’ll pardon the cheap rhyme, the interest-rate mantra “lower for longer” now looks “wrong and wronger.” Per data from Bespoke Investment Group, the 2021 sell-off in the Merrill Lynch 10+ Year Treasury Index has already produced the third-worst percentage since records began in 1988 — and the year is still young.</p><p>Then, too, Buffett’s harkening back to 1981, and a 94% decline in yields over nearly 40 years, is a sobering reminder of how far the pendulum has swung. The chart below, via FRED, shows the four-decade journey of the 10-year yield from 1980 to today.</p><p>It is hard to beat the 10-year yield for a vivid illustration of what Ray Dalio calls “the long-term debt cycle.”</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/36263398704c16a502896748461035c5\" tg-width=\"808\" tg-height=\"566\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">The Long-Term Debt Cycle is the cyclical pattern by which interest rates and inflation pressures tend to fall, even as debt and leverage levels rise, for decades at a time.</p><p>At the beginning of the long-term debt cycle — which had its genesis in 1981 — inflation was sky-high, while debt and leverage levels were low.</p><p>Interest rates peaked in 1981 because that was the year Paul Volcker, Chairman of the Federal Reserve, finally “broke the back of inflation” in a way investors could acknowledge.</p><p>Volcker’s efforts to kill off inflation, through a multi-year period of painfully high interest rates, were part of what cleaned out the debt and the leverage. The United States went through not one, but two recessions in the early 1980s, spaced about 14 months apart, as the price of borrowing went through the roof.</p><p>But Volker’s successful anti-inflation campaign, coupled with low debt-and-leverage levels, was the very thing that allowed a new long-term debt cycle to kick off.</p><p>The build-up of debt to GDP from 1980 onward, as shown in the FRED chart below, is a sort of inverted image of the falling 10-year yield. That is because, in a standard long-term debt cycle, debt levels go up as inflation and borrowing costs go down.<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/078f1f48bf80854f84c01fc648e7b5f4\" tg-width=\"809\" tg-height=\"563\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">The “bleak future” that Buffett warned of for fixed income investors relates to what happens when the long-term debt cycle reaches its farthest point.</p><p>Think of a giant, slow-moving pendulum that swings in the same direction over a 40-plus-year period. Over that entire window of time, bond yields and inflation pressures are falling, even as debt and leverage levels rise.</p><p>Once the pendulum starts to swing the other way, a multi-decade trend in the opposite direction occurs. Instead of falling for decades on end, yields go into a pattern of rising for decades on end (which means bond prices fall); and instead of debt and leverage building up to ever-higher levels as a percentage of output over time, there is a far less pleasant multi-decade period where debt and leverage levels are cut back (or inflated away) to a lesser percentage of output over time, rolling back the previous extreme.</p><p>Then, once the pendulum has swung all the way back, it swings forward yet again, a kind of permanent oscillation between high interest rates versus low, coupled with low debt levels versus high. And because a nation’s economy is immortal — assuming the nation continues to exist — these generational patterns of build-up and roll-back can repeat ad infinitum.</p><p>What a majority of investors haven’t yet realized is that their entire personal experience in markets — going all the way back to 1981 — is geared toward the pleasant half of the long-term debt cycle.</p><p>All that they know on a gut-feel basis — unless they were active market participants in the 1970s — is that left-to-right pendulum swing where interest rates fall, as debt and leverage rise and rise.</p><p>Buffett’s warning to fixed-income investors is a reminder we are headed for the less-pleasant half of the long-term debt cycle — the multi-decade period where interest rates rise and rise, and then rise some more, as governments, corporations, and consumers either actively reduce their debt loads or see the value of those debts inflated away.</p><p>Then, too, inflation is a part of the process because the debt adjustment almost always happens more via inflation than hardcore belt-tightening: It is just easier to reduce the debt load via printing press, which reduces the percentage ratio of debt-to-output over time. That tendency also explains why inflation will likely roar higher again — with interest rates rising up with it — over the next decade or two (or three, or four).</p><p>Just for fun, we took the 10-year yield chart and flipped the image horizontally (below), to create a visual picture of how the next 40 years might look if the long-term debt cycle retraced its steps perfectly. It’s never that simple, of course, but as a mental exercise, it’s worthwhile trying to imagine interest rates following a path like the one below.<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e31778f96af4d69be42e3fed9c5d32a1\" tg-width=\"809\" tg-height=\"564\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">The bottom line is that very few investors are ready for the world that is coming.</p><p>With “lower for longer” becoming “wrong and wronger” as the U.S. prepares for emerging-market-like levels of growth in the year ahead — and the Federal Reserve signaling it is fine with a jump in long-term yields, at least for now — dislocations in vulnerable areas of the stock market are likely just beginning.</p><p><i>Originally by Beverly Becker for TradeSmith.com</i>.</p><p>The views and opinions expressed herein are the views and opinions of the author and do not necessarily reflect those of Nasdaq, Inc.</p>","source":"lsy1603171495471","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>A Warning From Warren Buffett: We’re a Long Way From 1981</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nA Warning From Warren Buffett: We’re a Long Way From 1981\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-03-05 10:37 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://www.nasdaq.com/articles/a-warning-from-warren-buffett%3A-were-a-long-way-from-1981-2021-03-04><strong>Nasdaq</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>The Berkshire Hathaway annual letter — penned, as always, by CEO Warren Buffett, now 90 years old — came out this past weekend. Reading the Berkshire letter, and hunting for easter eggs of Buffett bon...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://www.nasdaq.com/articles/a-warning-from-warren-buffett%3A-were-a-long-way-from-1981-2021-03-04\">Source Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{},"source_url":"https://www.nasdaq.com/articles/a-warning-from-warren-buffett%3A-were-a-long-way-from-1981-2021-03-04","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1112359794","content_text":"The Berkshire Hathaway annual letter — penned, as always, by CEO Warren Buffett, now 90 years old — came out this past weekend. Reading the Berkshire letter, and hunting for easter eggs of Buffett bon mots and insights, has become a kind of annual tradition for much of the financial world. Analysts, money managers, journalists, and investors of all stripes tend to read it the weekend it comes out, even if they own no shares.Your editor is one such reader: Though never a shareholder, we’ve been perusing the Buffett letters for nearly 20 years. We also have all of the old letters on file, dating back long before we were born. The best one of all, in our view, is the Buffett Partnership letter covering 1965, available here.The 2021 letter felt somber and restrained compared to past years. This makes sense, given what America and the world had to go through in 2020.Still, in terms of pessimism and dark warnings — far from the normal fare for Buffett — this passage on the “bleak future” for fixed-income investors stood out:[B]onds are not the place to be these days. Can you believe that the income recently available from a 10-year U.S. Treasury bond – the yield was 0.93% at year end – had fallen 94% from the 15.8% yield available in September 1981? In certain large and important countries, such as Germany and Japan, investors earn a negative return on trillions of dollars of sovereign debt. Fixed-income investors worldwide – whether pension funds, insurance companies or retirees – face a bleak future.Per Buffett’s calculation, over the course of almost four decades — from September 1981 to year-end 2020 — the yield on the 10-year note fell by 94%.In regard to falling yields, here is another remarkable stat per Chris Bloomstran, the president and chief investment officer of Semper Augustus: As of Feb. 27, the price of the U.S. 30-year Treasury bond had fallen by more than 16% in three months — a drop that erased 10 full years’ worth of coupon payments. Also per Bloomstran, the 10-year gave up 7 years’ worth of coupons in that time.Imagine clipping coupons on your government bonds for a full decade — then taking a hit on the principal worth all of the payments and then some, over the course of just 12 weeks. Now imagine trying to be a government bond investor moving forward.For holders of long-dated U.S. Treasuries, the pain is increasing because the U.S. economy is reflating, powered by vaccine optimism, pent-up demand, and a tsunami of fiscal stimulus. Economic growth of the rip-roaring variety is coming, with inflation to follow on the heels of that.If you’ll pardon the cheap rhyme, the interest-rate mantra “lower for longer” now looks “wrong and wronger.” Per data from Bespoke Investment Group, the 2021 sell-off in the Merrill Lynch 10+ Year Treasury Index has already produced the third-worst percentage since records began in 1988 — and the year is still young.Then, too, Buffett’s harkening back to 1981, and a 94% decline in yields over nearly 40 years, is a sobering reminder of how far the pendulum has swung. The chart below, via FRED, shows the four-decade journey of the 10-year yield from 1980 to today.It is hard to beat the 10-year yield for a vivid illustration of what Ray Dalio calls “the long-term debt cycle.”The Long-Term Debt Cycle is the cyclical pattern by which interest rates and inflation pressures tend to fall, even as debt and leverage levels rise, for decades at a time.At the beginning of the long-term debt cycle — which had its genesis in 1981 — inflation was sky-high, while debt and leverage levels were low.Interest rates peaked in 1981 because that was the year Paul Volcker, Chairman of the Federal Reserve, finally “broke the back of inflation” in a way investors could acknowledge.Volcker’s efforts to kill off inflation, through a multi-year period of painfully high interest rates, were part of what cleaned out the debt and the leverage. The United States went through not one, but two recessions in the early 1980s, spaced about 14 months apart, as the price of borrowing went through the roof.But Volker’s successful anti-inflation campaign, coupled with low debt-and-leverage levels, was the very thing that allowed a new long-term debt cycle to kick off.The build-up of debt to GDP from 1980 onward, as shown in the FRED chart below, is a sort of inverted image of the falling 10-year yield. That is because, in a standard long-term debt cycle, debt levels go up as inflation and borrowing costs go down.The “bleak future” that Buffett warned of for fixed income investors relates to what happens when the long-term debt cycle reaches its farthest point.Think of a giant, slow-moving pendulum that swings in the same direction over a 40-plus-year period. Over that entire window of time, bond yields and inflation pressures are falling, even as debt and leverage levels rise.Once the pendulum starts to swing the other way, a multi-decade trend in the opposite direction occurs. Instead of falling for decades on end, yields go into a pattern of rising for decades on end (which means bond prices fall); and instead of debt and leverage building up to ever-higher levels as a percentage of output over time, there is a far less pleasant multi-decade period where debt and leverage levels are cut back (or inflated away) to a lesser percentage of output over time, rolling back the previous extreme.Then, once the pendulum has swung all the way back, it swings forward yet again, a kind of permanent oscillation between high interest rates versus low, coupled with low debt levels versus high. And because a nation’s economy is immortal — assuming the nation continues to exist — these generational patterns of build-up and roll-back can repeat ad infinitum.What a majority of investors haven’t yet realized is that their entire personal experience in markets — going all the way back to 1981 — is geared toward the pleasant half of the long-term debt cycle.All that they know on a gut-feel basis — unless they were active market participants in the 1970s — is that left-to-right pendulum swing where interest rates fall, as debt and leverage rise and rise.Buffett’s warning to fixed-income investors is a reminder we are headed for the less-pleasant half of the long-term debt cycle — the multi-decade period where interest rates rise and rise, and then rise some more, as governments, corporations, and consumers either actively reduce their debt loads or see the value of those debts inflated away.Then, too, inflation is a part of the process because the debt adjustment almost always happens more via inflation than hardcore belt-tightening: It is just easier to reduce the debt load via printing press, which reduces the percentage ratio of debt-to-output over time. That tendency also explains why inflation will likely roar higher again — with interest rates rising up with it — over the next decade or two (or three, or four).Just for fun, we took the 10-year yield chart and flipped the image horizontally (below), to create a visual picture of how the next 40 years might look if the long-term debt cycle retraced its steps perfectly. It’s never that simple, of course, but as a mental exercise, it’s worthwhile trying to imagine interest rates following a path like the one below.The bottom line is that very few investors are ready for the world that is coming.With “lower for longer” becoming “wrong and wronger” as the U.S. prepares for emerging-market-like levels of growth in the year ahead — and the Federal Reserve signaling it is fine with a jump in long-term yields, at least for now — dislocations in vulnerable areas of the stock market are likely just beginning.Originally by Beverly Becker for TradeSmith.com.The views and opinions expressed herein are the views and opinions of the author and do not necessarily reflect those of Nasdaq, Inc.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":327,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":142652364,"gmtCreate":1626148219058,"gmtModify":1703754317063,"author":{"id":"3577406057864778","authorId":"3577406057864778","name":"Tleestics","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/bd56a14c2c00de395c9704b1539dc5d1","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3577406057864778","idStr":"3577406057864778"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/DIDI\">$DiDi Global Inc.(DIDI)$</a>Will this rise","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/DIDI\">$DiDi Global Inc.(DIDI)$</a>Will this rise","text":"$DiDi Global Inc.(DIDI)$Will this rise","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/49888a109ec5c129d37a57c5b8f58ea9","width":"1125","height":"1949"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/142652364","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1698,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":320598257,"gmtCreate":1615133180279,"gmtModify":1704778845990,"author":{"id":"3577406057864778","authorId":"3577406057864778","name":"Tleestics","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/bd56a14c2c00de395c9704b1539dc5d1","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3577406057864778","idStr":"3577406057864778"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Buy more?","listText":"Buy more?","text":"Buy more?","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/320598257","repostId":"1169596583","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1169596583","kind":"news","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"为用户提供金融资讯、行情、数据，旨在帮助投资者理解世界，做投资决策。","home_visible":1,"media_name":"老虎资讯综合","id":"102","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba"},"pubTimestamp":1614958557,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1169596583?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2021-03-05 23:35","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Palantir plunged more than 13%","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1169596583","media":"老虎资讯综合","summary":"(March 5)&nbsp;Palantir plunged more than 13%.","content":"<p>(March 5)&nbsp;Palantir plunged more than 13%.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/13f756ec57cca85c31b6be070941d7c1\" tg-width=\"1059\" tg-height=\"499\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Palantir plunged more than 13%</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nPalantir plunged more than 13%\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/102\">\n\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">老虎资讯综合 </p>\n<p class=\"h-time\">2021-03-05 23:35</p>\n</div>\n\n</a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>(March 5)&nbsp;Palantir plunged more than 13%.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/13f756ec57cca85c31b6be070941d7c1\" tg-width=\"1059\" tg-height=\"499\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"PLTR":"Palantir Technologies Inc."},"is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1169596583","content_text":"(March 5) Palantir plunged more than 13%.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"PLTR":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":561,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":808975848,"gmtCreate":1627554203884,"gmtModify":1703492250606,"author":{"id":"3577406057864778","authorId":"3577406057864778","name":"Tleestics","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/bd56a14c2c00de395c9704b1539dc5d1","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3577406057864778","idStr":"3577406057864778"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/DIDI\">$DiDi Global Inc.(DIDI)$</a>What will happen to Call Options after privatise?&nbsp;","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/DIDI\">$DiDi Global Inc.(DIDI)$</a>What will happen to Call Options after privatise?&nbsp;","text":"$DiDi Global Inc.(DIDI)$What will happen to Call Options after privatise?","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/808975848","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2852,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":800515542,"gmtCreate":1627308249186,"gmtModify":1703487314472,"author":{"id":"3577406057864778","authorId":"3577406057864778","name":"Tleestics","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/bd56a14c2c00de395c9704b1539dc5d1","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3577406057864778","idStr":"3577406057864778"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/DIDI\">$DiDi Global Inc.(DIDI)$</a>I have faith in you","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/DIDI\">$DiDi Global Inc.(DIDI)$</a>I have faith in you","text":"$DiDi Global Inc.(DIDI)$I have faith in 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