SOON141319 personal page - To The Moon

SOON141319

SOON141319

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02-24

$英伟达(NVDA)$

2024-07-05

[龇牙] [无语] [龇牙] [龇牙]

@4054ed0c:$413新高，已經三年，上方壓力重重 $特斯拉(TSLA)$ 這幾天這樣漲，也不好追吧？

2024-07-05

[开心] [开心] [开心] [开心]

@天道将军:$特斯拉(TSLA)$ 炒美股可以，若炒a股致富真的只能做夢[捂臉] a股厚顏無恥

2024-06-06

$Vertiv Holdings LLC(VRT)$

2024-06-05

$英伟达(NVDA)$

2024-06-05

😄😄😄😄😄

2023-05-05

$蔚来(NIO)$ [财迷] [财迷] [财迷] [财迷]

2023-05-03

$标普500(.SPX)$ dddd

2023-05-03

$蔚来(NIO)$ [财迷] [财迷] [财迷]

2023-04-25

$蔚来(NIO)$ [难过] [难过] [难过]

2023-04-17

[财迷] [财迷] [财迷] [呆住] [呆住] [呆住]

2023-04-15

[财迷] [财迷] [财迷] [财迷]

2023-04-14

[财迷] [财迷] [财迷] [财迷]

2023-04-12

[财迷] [财迷] [财迷] [财迷] [财迷]

2023-04-11

[财迷] [财迷] [财迷] [财迷] [财迷] [财迷]

2023-04-10

[财迷] [财迷] [财迷] [财迷] [微笑] [微笑] [微笑] [呆住] [呆住] [呆住]

2022-10-31

2022-10-13

[财迷]

U.S. inflation relay: looming'dawn '

2022-10-11

💛

@读懂财经:日本家電是如何輸掉全球化戰爭的？

2022-10-07

Go to Tiger App to see more news

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[呆住]","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9942363489","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":518,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9982491691,"gmtCreate":1667225531113,"gmtModify":1676537880630,"author":{"id":"3578029508189134","authorId":"3578029508189134","name":"SOON141319","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/86730deac042a9c977855eae3f27fe86","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3578029508189134","authorIdStr":"3578029508189134"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/NIO\">$蔚来(NIO)$</a><v-v data-views=\"0\"></v-v>","listText":"<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/NIO\">$蔚来(NIO)$</a><v-v data-views=\"0\"></v-v>","text":"$蔚来(NIO)$","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9982491691","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":718,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9980103372,"gmtCreate":1665667681796,"gmtModify":1676537645722,"author":{"id":"3578029508189134","authorId":"3578029508189134","name":"SOON141319","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/86730deac042a9c977855eae3f27fe86","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3578029508189134","authorIdStr":"3578029508189134"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"[财迷]&nbsp;","listText":"[财迷]&nbsp;","text":"[财迷]","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9980103372","repostId":"1149561184","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1149561184","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1665666953,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1149561184?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2022-10-13 21:15","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"U.S. inflation relay: looming'dawn '","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1149561184","media":"陈达飞全球宏观...","summary":"美国9月CPI同比上涨8.2%，预估为8.1%，前值为8.3%；美国9月CPI环比上涨0.4%，预估为0.2%，前值为0.1%。核心CPI同比6.6%，为新高，主要贡献为服务和核心服务，同比增长分别为","content":"<p><html><head></head><body>The U.S. CPI rose 8.2% year-on-year in September, which was estimated to be 8.1%, and the previous value was 8.3%; The U.S. CPI rose 0.4% month-on-month in September, expected to be 0.2%, and the previous value was 0.1%. The core CPI was 6.6% year-on-year, a new high. The main contribution was services and core services, with year-on-year growth of 7.38% and 6.67% respectively, both new highs. If you look at the six-month month-on-month, core CPI, services and core services have also hit new highs.<b>Compared with August, the data in September was even \"worse\". Because the 6-month and 3-month month-on-month data of the CPI indicator in Table 1 in August both showed inflection points.</b></p><p>As of August 2022, the highs of energy, non-durable goods and commodity price indexes have appeared, and food, durable goods, core goods, core services, services, core CPI and CPI are still hitting new highs. Since July, the decline in the prices of energy and non-durable commodities has driven down the overall price of commodities, and the increase in CPI has slowed down. However, the inflection point of the food and service price index and the year-on-year increase has not yet appeared. The stickiness of service prices is strong, or it may become the \"last stick\" of inflation \"relay\". It depends primarily on wages and labour market conditions.<b>The outlook for inflation is still not optimistic, and it is far from time to bet on the right. The most noteworthy \"grey rhino\" is the global strike.</b></p><p>The yellow padding in the table indicates the maximum value.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3a34bf13bf4d9022dd058d282b1a9885\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"536\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/71f3534b1b81c47cc1da00f7395d87ae\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"602\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Compared with the Great Crisis, after the pandemic, the monetary policy of major Western economies has been more easing, more consistent, and more rapid. The balance sheets of the Federal Reserve, the Bank of England and the European Central Bank have all reached record highs. The effect of monetary policy depends on the characteristics of exogenous shocks and its cooperation with fiscal and revenue policies. The impact of the epidemic is mainly a negative impact on the supply side, and counter-cyclical policies have obvious characteristics of \"fiscal deficit monetization\", which widens the gap between supply and demand and increases inflationary pressure. The extremely loose monetary policy killed a \"perfect storm\" in the cradle, but the \"K-shaped\" recovery of the economy and the skyrocketing prices of commodities and risky assets put monetary policy in a dilemma. The experience of coexistence of QE and deflation in Japan at the beginning of this century and the United States after 2008 cannot be linearly extrapolated.</p><p>Whether the Federal Reserve sets policy rates or market participants decide asset allocation plans, it is crucial to clarify whether inflation is temporary or persistent. Generally speaking, the Fed will not change its policy stance due to temporary inflation, and the market will not reprice. The impact of the epidemic and policy response have brought great disturbances to prices, increasing the noise in inflation data and making it difficult to identify trend and cyclical fluctuations. In the second and third quarters of 2021, inflation reached a periodic inflection point, which enhanced the credibility of the \"temporary inflation hypothesis\" and caused the Federal Reserve to misjudge the persistence of inflation. The author pointed out in the commentary at that time that this inflection point was not solid. The formation of lasting inflation is not achieved overnight, but a \"relay\" of multiple temporary factors.</p><p><b>Fluctuations, Trends and Structure of Inflation</b></p><p>Commonly used indicators to measure the price increase of final goods and services in the United States include the Consumer Price Index (CPI), the Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) price index, and the GDP deflator. They are all obtained by weighted averaging, and the difference in values mainly stems from the differences in coverage, weights and calculation methods. The coverage is increasingly broad, from the CPI to the GDP deflator, which covers all consumers, businesses, and governments within the United States, as well as the prices of all final goods and services purchased abroad. CPI and PCE are more common. The former is compiled by the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) and the latter by the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA), but the underlying data is still from BLS. There are differences between the two in coverage and weight. The Fed is more focused on the latter.</p><p>Overall, the trend of PCE inflation rate and CPI inflation rate is basically the same, with the former having lower level value and volatility. This can be explained by the compilation and calculation methods of both (McCully et al., 2007). On the one hand, the PCE price index has broader coverage, as total personal spending accounts for nearly 70% of U.S. GDP. It measures price changes across all consumption items, not just those that consumers buy out of their own pockets; On the other hand, the difference of coverage directly leads to the difference of weight, and the adjustment of PCE weight is more frequent. For example, health care services are weighted at 22% and 9% in the PCE and CPI, respectively, because the former includes insurance premiums, deductibles, and co-payments paid by consumers out of pocket, and employer-provided insurance, Medicare, and Medicaid expenditures, while the latter includes only direct consumer expenditures. Another example is housing, whose weight in PCE is only 23%, while its weight in CPI is 42%. This means that the increase in the price of health services has a much greater impact on the PCE price index than on the CPI index, while housing has a greater impact on the CPI. PCE price index includes the substitution effect caused by the change of commodity price, which can more accurately depict the change of consumers' real living cost.</p><p>Monetary policy is an aggregate policy, which affects aggregate demand. It is unlikely that the Fed will change its policy stance because of the volatility of prices and the sharp increase in the price of a single industry (or commodity). Therefore, the Federal Reserve pays more attention to the core price index, which excludes food and energy with high volatility from the headline price index. The volatility of the core price index is significantly lower than the overall price index (Figure 12, left panel). However, the core price index will still be indirectly affected by the prices of goods or services in a single industry other than food and energy. How to better distinguish between price fluctuations and trends, structural rises and universal rises has become a topic of concern to monetary policy authorities.</p><p>To this end, the Cleveland Fed compiled the median inflation rate of CPI and PCE and the 16% trimmed-mean inflation rate. The Dallas Fed has also compiled a censored average inflation measure, excluding the lowest 24% increase and the highest 31% increase in the PCE price index (55% censored average inflation), and weighting the average among the remaining 45%. Compared with the core price index, the median and censored average inflation rates are less volatile, with the lowest being the Dallas Fed's censored average PCE inflation rate-the modified Taylor rule obtained by replacing the inflation rate in the Taylor rule can better fit the trend of policy interest rates (Koenig, 2019). In addition, the proportion of the number of goods with different price increases can also be calculated to examine the structure of inflation (Figure 1, right).</p><p>Figure 1: How to observe the trend and structure of inflation?</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f9b1d64591dab845dfb7a9dff41721e1\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"476\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Data: Federal Reserve, CEIC,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/600958\">Orient Securities</a>Wealth Research</p><p>At the beginning of the pandemic, both overall and core price increases declined to varying degrees. Overall price gains fell even more, with overall CPI and PCE inflation reaching lows of 0.41% and 0.1% in April and May, respectively-readings in January 2020 were 2.5% and 1.9%, respectively, mainly due to crude oil prices falling from 2020. The $65/barrel at the beginning of the year fell to $20 at the end of April, and then stabilized as OPEC and Russia reached an agreement to reduce production (about 10% of global production). Until the end of 2020, inflation was significantly lower than before the pandemic. However, starting from the first quarter of 2021, under the combined effect of multiple factors such as a low base, resumption of work and production supported by loose policies, and supply constraints (supply chain and labor) under the impact of the epidemic, U.S. prices began to accelerate upward.</p><p>As of the end of June 2021, the year-on-year increase of the price index ranked from high to low: CPI (5.4%), core CPI (4.5%), PCE (4%), core PCE (3.5%), 16% censored average CPI (2.9%), median CPI (2.2%), median PCE (2.2%), 55% censored average PCE (2.0%). The sharp rise in overall prices and the relative stability of trend indicators show that inflation does not yet have a broad basis. From a structural point of view, the number of subjects with price increases greater than 10%, 5% and 3% accounted for 11.6%, 32.6% and 45.0% respectively. During the two oil crises, the December 1973 values were 12.6%, 48.0%, and 74.8%, and the November 1978 values were 11.2%, 71.7%, and 92.1%, respectively. The proportion of subjects with an increase of more than 10% at the three time points is very close, but the proportion of subjects with price increases of more than 3% and 5% in June 2021 is significantly lower. The conclusions of the structural indicators are consistent with those of the trend indicators.</p><p>In his regular meeting statement in April 2021, Powell put forward the \"temporary inflation hypothesis\" for the first time, saying that the rise in inflation was caused by transitory factors. In the July 2021 \"Monetary Policy Report\", the Federal Reserve described the inflation situation in detail, explained the reasons, and responded to the market's two views on inflation: (1) Without changing monetary policy, as the economy returns to normal, inflationary pressures will subside on their own; (2) Inflationary pressures are persistent and will force the Fed to change its policy stance. Inflationary pressures at that time should have been within the Fed's expectations. In the column, the Federal Reserve mainly demonstrated the \"temporary inflation hypothesis\" from the perspective of inflation expectations. Because medium-and long-term inflation expectation indicators in multiple dimensions show that the 2% inflation target is still anchored. The FOMC did not abandon this hypothesis until its November 2021 regular meeting (during which there were five regular meetings) decided to launch Taper.</p><p>From the rearview mirror, at least in the second-third quarter of 2021, the \"temporary inflation hypothesis\" has a certain degree of credibility. However, after a short revision in the third quarter, the trend and structure of inflation have further deteriorated, causing the Federal Reserve to have to accelerate the pace of normalization. As of July 2022, although core PCE and core CPI have reached periodic tops in March 2022, the median CPI and the two censored average inflation indicators are still hitting new highs. The \"temporary inflation hypothesis\" became a stain on Powell.</p><p><b>Distinguishing the Temporary and Persistent Nature of Inflation</b></p><p>Only by clearly understanding which goods or services are rising in price and their reasons can we more accurately judge the future price trend. A common analysis idea is to open the \"black box\" of the price index, split and subdivide the contribution of goods or services to the overall price index changes, and focus on analyzing the reasons for the price changes of subjects with higher weights or greater contributions. If the reason for the price increase is seasonal or driven by exogenous shocks, inflation may be temporary. Since persistent inflation is often the \"relay\" of temporary inflation, potential price increases should not be ignored.</p><p>In the CPI basket (Figure 2), the weights of the first-level sub-items of goods and services are about 39% and 61%. Compared with the early 1990s, goods decreased by 5 percentage points and services increased by 5 percentage points. Among the eight industry classifications, the top three by weight are: housing (42.1%), transportation (15.7%) and food and beverage (14.8%), accounting for about three-quarters of the total. In the PCE basket, housing (22.6%) and health care (22.3%) are the two single items with the largest weight. The former is 19.5 percentage points lower than the CPI, and the latter is 13.5 percentage points higher than the CPI.</p><p>Figure 2: Weights of US PCE and CPI price indexes</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/57cc097a40674403ac5dbb55c206c806\" tg-width=\"849\" tg-height=\"794\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Data source: CEIC,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/03958\">Orient Securities</a>Wealth Research</p><p>We can first grasp the impact of COVID-19 pandemic on prices as a whole from the distribution of price increases (Figure 3). Take the 121 subdivided items in the core PCE basket as an example. From March 2020 to June 2021, the distribution of price increases has experienced a change from normal to left, and then returned to normal. The kurtosis at the end of the period is lower than that at the beginning of the period, and both the left and right sides show fat tail characteristics, indicating that there are subjects with large ups and downs, and with the passage of time, the fat tail characteristics on the right side are more obvious. There are certain differences in the distribution of goods and services, and the peak and left-deviation characteristics of services are more obvious. This is in line with the peculiarities of the pandemic shock. Because a large number of service industries require close contact, the impact is even more significant. Among commodities, there are also differences between durable goods and non-durable goods. The former has changed from negative growth (average-1.9%) that lasted 25 years before the epidemic to positive growth. In June 2021, the year-on-year growth rate reached 7.2%. This can be mutually verified with the expanding consumption of durable goods in the early stage of recovery-durable goods consumption has formed a substitute for service consumption.</p><p>Figure 3: Distribution of PCE prices during the pandemic (2020.01-2021.06)</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/00f7d0fd07a9b9d3c3d1fe567e02ec3d\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"650\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Data source: BEA, CEIC, Orient Securities Wealth Research</p><p>The first wave of gains in headline PCE inflation came primarily from commodities. The base effect is an important explanation, because commodities with large year-on-year price increases are similar to commodities that fell from March to May 2020, mainly in the energy and transportation industries (such as new and used cars). In May 2021, the core commodity PCE rose by 8.58% year-on-year, and the prices of the energy and transportation industries rose by 28% and 20% year-on-year, contributing about 1/3 of the current inflation-from March 2020 to the end of that year, Both the energy and transportation industry price indexes rose negatively. The highs of year-over-year growth in commodity PCE and core commodity PCE occurred in January and February 2022, respectively, with readings of 11.5 and 15.3%, respectively. By July 2022, it has dropped to 5.6% and 10.8% respectively. Comparatively speaking, the upward trend of service PCE is slow and dominates the trend of core PCE.</p><p>Logically, if the rise and fall of prices is mainly caused by the impact of the epidemic, it will also return to normal as the epidemic subsides and the resumption of work and production advances. Shapiro, an economist at the San Francisco Fed, distinguishes COVID-sensitive and non-COVID-insensitive subjects from two dimensions: quantity and price-if the price or quantity of a good or service changes significantly from February 2020 to April, it is COVID-19 sensitive, otherwise it is non-COVID-19 sensitive (Shapiro, 2020a; 2020b). As shown in Figure 4 (above), the subjects with a large decline in quantity basically belong to the service industry, among which entertainment, travel, hotels, casinos, catering and air transportation have decreased by 80% to 100%. Prices for air transport and hotels also dropped sharply, reaching 23% and 13% respectively. In terms of commodities, the items whose quantity dropped by 40%-60% included: automobiles, jewelry, watches, clothing and footwear. Among them, the price of used cars dropped by 13%, and the price of other items dropped by less than 10%.</p><p>Figure 4: The impact of COVID-19 pandemic on consumer behavior-based on the decomposition of PCE project volume and price</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/779ad3138b067220df0c84a7e96b87d5\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"526\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Data source: BEA, CEIC, Orient Securities Wealth Research</p><p>In the core PCE, COVID-sensitive subjects have a two-thirds weight and are the main source of price changes during the pandemic. Before the epidemic, COVID-19-sensitive subjects contributed about 0.8-1 percentage points to core PCE inflation, which plummeted to 0.3% in April 2020. Due to the base period effect, the contribution in the second quarter of 2021 increased sharply to 2.6%, equivalent to three-quarters of the PCE inflation in the same period. Among COVID-19-sensitive subjects, health services and used cars (cars and trucks) contributed the most to inflation, but for different reasons.</p><p>In the 5 years before the pandemic, the contribution of health services to core PCE inflation was approximately equal to 0.2 percentage points. The pandemic has expanded demand for health services, and superimposed pandemic-related changes in health insurance payment legislation (Shapiro, 2020a), increasing its contribution to 0.6 percentage points in the first quarter of 2021. However, the emergency relief measures are temporary and will act as a drag on price increases when lifted. Actually, PCE<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/HCSG\">Healthcare services</a>The price growth rate will enter a downward channel in March 2021.</p><p>Social distancing measures related to the pandemic have reduced demand for public transportation and boosted demand for used cars. In addition, due to the shortage of chips limiting supply, the widening gap between supply and demand of new cars has increased the contribution of used cars to inflation from-0.1% before the epidemic to 0.5% in early 2021. IHS manufacturer survey data shows that the chip shortage will ease after the third quarter of 2021 (but it may still be in short supply until early 2022).</p><p>In the second and third quarters of 2021, driven by the continued decline in commodity price increases, inflationary pressures in the United States have slowed down. Is temporary inflation in the post-epidemic era a prelude to sustained inflation in the medium and long term, and will inflation spread from the United States to other countries (or regions) in the future? These problems were unknown at the time. Among the world's major economies, only the core CPI inflation of the United States exceeds 4%, followed by the United Kingdom (3.1%), China's core CPI inflation and the harmonized inflation of the euro zone are still lower than 2%, and Japan is still struggling on the edge of deflation.</p><p>The Fed remains confident in emphasizing the temporary nature of inflation. In a commentary at that time, the author also agreed with the credibility of the \"temporary inflation hypothesis\", but emphasized that this \"temporary\" was based on historical attribution and partial analysis, and did not take into account the potential future price increase factors. In the second half of 2021, with the vaccination and the restart of the service industry, the service industry that once dragged down inflation turned into an inflationary<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/838275\">Driving force</a>, such as aviation and accommodation, etc. The virus continues to mutate, which will definitely prolong the recovery cycle of the service industry. The high point of core CPI inflation occurred in February 2022, mainly because core commodity inflation fell sharply after an inflection point (12.4%). However, affected by the conflict between Russia and Ukraine and the sanctions imposed by Western countries on Russia, energy prices will continue to rise in 2022, and the inflection point will not appear until June. Food and services (core and non-core) inflation rates have not reached an inflection point until August. The former is exogenous and is mainly affected by the natural environment, seasonality and the conflict between Russia and Ukraine, while the latter mainly depends on wage increases in the United States. In the short term, the U.S. labor market will remain in short supply, and wage increases will have certain rigidity, which will support service prices. The interpretation of the \"wage-price spiral\" is the key to future inflation trends.</p><p>As of the end of July 2022 (Figure 4, below), the prices of most goods and services have returned to before the epidemic. Compared with February 2020, the goods that still have negative price gaps include: information processing equipment (-6.68%), video and audio equipment (-4.2%), motorcycles (-3.4%); Services are: telecommunications (-6.3%) and insurance (-1.2%), etc. With the exception of a few commodities such as automobiles (new and used), commodity consumption has largely exceeded pre-pandemic levels. However, there are still a large number of service consumption with quantitative gaps, such as photography (-49.4%), tickets for entertainment activities (-32.1%), camping (-31.1%), etc. Although the year-on-year price increase of goods (overall and core) in PCE is still higher than that of services (overall and core), the former has already reached an inflection point in early 2022 (January and February 2022 respectively). By the end of 2022, the year-on-year increase in PCE commodity prices may drop to a level equal to the year-on-year increase in PCE service prices. Service consumption is still on the way to recovery, accounting for more than 65% of nominal PCE spending, which is the main driver of U.S. inflation in the near future and will be for some time to come.</p><p>The formation of lasting inflation in the post-epidemic era does not happen overnight, and there are often different driving factors at different stages. Due to the widespread and asymmetric impact of the epidemic, inflation also has the characteristics of universality and sequence. Compared to pre-pandemic (January 2020) (Figure 5, top left), the CPI goods price index declined more than the CPI services price index, with the largest declines of-2.5% and-0.2%, respectively. Among commodities, the price of non-durable goods fell more than that of durable goods, with the largest declines of-3.8% and-0.2% respectively. Among them, the largest decline in energy prices reached 18%. The bottom of the price index basically appeared in May 2020. From June 2020 to June 2021, the ranking of price rebound magnitude basically matched the ranking of decline magnitude-energy led the gains, goods outweighed services, and durable goods outweighed non-durable goods. By the beginning of 2021, the above-mentioned CPI prices have returned to pre-epidemic prices.</p><p>Therefore, the first wave of inflation that began in the second quarter of 2021 contains a significant base effect, superimposed on the unexpected elasticity of economic recovery, which does have strong temporary characteristics. But the Fed underestimated the persistence of supply chain constraints and the resilience of consumer demand, and also overestimated the elasticity of labor supply. By August 2022, in addition to the high points of energy, non-durable goods and commodity prices, food, durable goods, core goods, core services, services, core CPI and CPI are still hitting new highs. Since July, the decline in the prices of energy and non-durable commodities has driven down the overall price of commodities, and the increase in CPI has slowed down. However, the inflection point of the food and service price index and the year-on-year increase (Figure 16, upper right) has not yet appeared. Service prices are more sticky, or may become the \"last stick\" of the \"relay\" of inflation. It depends primarily on wages and labour market conditions<b>。 What is more optimistic is that the 6-month or 3-month month-on-month highs of CPI and its sub-items have already appeared. The relationship between supply and demand is the ultimate force in determining prices. Changes in supply and demand can also be read from prices. By September 2022, the outlook for inflation can be appropriately optimistic.</b></p><p>Figure 5: Inflation relay-prices for food, durable goods and services are still hitting new highs</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/514d5d2fdac5c001ca8732406f20f22c\" tg-width=\"984\" tg-height=\"951\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Data: CEIC, Orient Securities Wealth Research</p><p>In the process of inflation relay, money plays the role of \"threading the needle\". The extremely loose monetary and fiscal policies implemented by the United States during the epidemic have significantly increased residents' disposable income and savings rate, continued to support domestic demand, and are also an important reason why the inflation rate in the United States is higher than that in other Western economies (Jordà et al., 2022). Since the beginning of 2022, the contraction of fiscal expenditure has begun to drag down GDP growth. The normalization of the Fed's unconventional policies has begun to suppress demand in interest rate-sensitive sectors. However, on the one hand, the structure of inflation is still supply-led; On the other hand, the normalization process initiated by the Federal Reserve lags behind the macroeconomic situation, and the impact of rate hike on aggregate demand has a certain lag. The long-term real interest rate turning positive significantly lags behind the rate hike cycle. Therefore, the Fed can only \"fast-forward\" rate hike. In the forward-looking guidance, the Fed made it clear that it was only convinced that inflation was converging towards the 2% policy target after seeing \"several months of low inflation data.\" The author believes that in order to anchor medium-and long-term inflation expectations, the Federal Reserve will not easily release a \"dovish\" signal until the inflection point of service price and wage increase appears.</p><p></body></html></p>","source":"lsy1665498833642","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>U.S. inflation relay: looming'dawn '</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nU.S. inflation relay: looming'dawn '\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">陈达飞全球宏观...</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2022-10-13 21:15</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><html><head></head><body>The U.S. CPI rose 8.2% year-on-year in September, which was estimated to be 8.1%, and the previous value was 8.3%; The U.S. CPI rose 0.4% month-on-month in September, expected to be 0.2%, and the previous value was 0.1%. The core CPI was 6.6% year-on-year, a new high. The main contribution was services and core services, with year-on-year growth of 7.38% and 6.67% respectively, both new highs. If you look at the six-month month-on-month, core CPI, services and core services have also hit new highs.<b>Compared with August, the data in September was even \"worse\". Because the 6-month and 3-month month-on-month data of the CPI indicator in Table 1 in August both showed inflection points.</b></p><p>As of August 2022, the highs of energy, non-durable goods and commodity price indexes have appeared, and food, durable goods, core goods, core services, services, core CPI and CPI are still hitting new highs. Since July, the decline in the prices of energy and non-durable commodities has driven down the overall price of commodities, and the increase in CPI has slowed down. However, the inflection point of the food and service price index and the year-on-year increase has not yet appeared. The stickiness of service prices is strong, or it may become the \"last stick\" of inflation \"relay\". It depends primarily on wages and labour market conditions.<b>The outlook for inflation is still not optimistic, and it is far from time to bet on the right. The most noteworthy \"grey rhino\" is the global strike.</b></p><p>The yellow padding in the table indicates the maximum value.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3a34bf13bf4d9022dd058d282b1a9885\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"536\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/71f3534b1b81c47cc1da00f7395d87ae\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"602\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Compared with the Great Crisis, after the pandemic, the monetary policy of major Western economies has been more easing, more consistent, and more rapid. The balance sheets of the Federal Reserve, the Bank of England and the European Central Bank have all reached record highs. The effect of monetary policy depends on the characteristics of exogenous shocks and its cooperation with fiscal and revenue policies. The impact of the epidemic is mainly a negative impact on the supply side, and counter-cyclical policies have obvious characteristics of \"fiscal deficit monetization\", which widens the gap between supply and demand and increases inflationary pressure. The extremely loose monetary policy killed a \"perfect storm\" in the cradle, but the \"K-shaped\" recovery of the economy and the skyrocketing prices of commodities and risky assets put monetary policy in a dilemma. The experience of coexistence of QE and deflation in Japan at the beginning of this century and the United States after 2008 cannot be linearly extrapolated.</p><p>Whether the Federal Reserve sets policy rates or market participants decide asset allocation plans, it is crucial to clarify whether inflation is temporary or persistent. Generally speaking, the Fed will not change its policy stance due to temporary inflation, and the market will not reprice. The impact of the epidemic and policy response have brought great disturbances to prices, increasing the noise in inflation data and making it difficult to identify trend and cyclical fluctuations. In the second and third quarters of 2021, inflation reached a periodic inflection point, which enhanced the credibility of the \"temporary inflation hypothesis\" and caused the Federal Reserve to misjudge the persistence of inflation. The author pointed out in the commentary at that time that this inflection point was not solid. The formation of lasting inflation is not achieved overnight, but a \"relay\" of multiple temporary factors.</p><p><b>Fluctuations, Trends and Structure of Inflation</b></p><p>Commonly used indicators to measure the price increase of final goods and services in the United States include the Consumer Price Index (CPI), the Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) price index, and the GDP deflator. They are all obtained by weighted averaging, and the difference in values mainly stems from the differences in coverage, weights and calculation methods. The coverage is increasingly broad, from the CPI to the GDP deflator, which covers all consumers, businesses, and governments within the United States, as well as the prices of all final goods and services purchased abroad. CPI and PCE are more common. The former is compiled by the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) and the latter by the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA), but the underlying data is still from BLS. There are differences between the two in coverage and weight. The Fed is more focused on the latter.</p><p>Overall, the trend of PCE inflation rate and CPI inflation rate is basically the same, with the former having lower level value and volatility. This can be explained by the compilation and calculation methods of both (McCully et al., 2007). On the one hand, the PCE price index has broader coverage, as total personal spending accounts for nearly 70% of U.S. GDP. It measures price changes across all consumption items, not just those that consumers buy out of their own pockets; On the other hand, the difference of coverage directly leads to the difference of weight, and the adjustment of PCE weight is more frequent. For example, health care services are weighted at 22% and 9% in the PCE and CPI, respectively, because the former includes insurance premiums, deductibles, and co-payments paid by consumers out of pocket, and employer-provided insurance, Medicare, and Medicaid expenditures, while the latter includes only direct consumer expenditures. Another example is housing, whose weight in PCE is only 23%, while its weight in CPI is 42%. This means that the increase in the price of health services has a much greater impact on the PCE price index than on the CPI index, while housing has a greater impact on the CPI. PCE price index includes the substitution effect caused by the change of commodity price, which can more accurately depict the change of consumers' real living cost.</p><p>Monetary policy is an aggregate policy, which affects aggregate demand. It is unlikely that the Fed will change its policy stance because of the volatility of prices and the sharp increase in the price of a single industry (or commodity). Therefore, the Federal Reserve pays more attention to the core price index, which excludes food and energy with high volatility from the headline price index. The volatility of the core price index is significantly lower than the overall price index (Figure 12, left panel). However, the core price index will still be indirectly affected by the prices of goods or services in a single industry other than food and energy. How to better distinguish between price fluctuations and trends, structural rises and universal rises has become a topic of concern to monetary policy authorities.</p><p>To this end, the Cleveland Fed compiled the median inflation rate of CPI and PCE and the 16% trimmed-mean inflation rate. The Dallas Fed has also compiled a censored average inflation measure, excluding the lowest 24% increase and the highest 31% increase in the PCE price index (55% censored average inflation), and weighting the average among the remaining 45%. Compared with the core price index, the median and censored average inflation rates are less volatile, with the lowest being the Dallas Fed's censored average PCE inflation rate-the modified Taylor rule obtained by replacing the inflation rate in the Taylor rule can better fit the trend of policy interest rates (Koenig, 2019). In addition, the proportion of the number of goods with different price increases can also be calculated to examine the structure of inflation (Figure 1, right).</p><p>Figure 1: How to observe the trend and structure of inflation?</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f9b1d64591dab845dfb7a9dff41721e1\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"476\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Data: Federal Reserve, CEIC,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/600958\">Orient Securities</a>Wealth Research</p><p>At the beginning of the pandemic, both overall and core price increases declined to varying degrees. Overall price gains fell even more, with overall CPI and PCE inflation reaching lows of 0.41% and 0.1% in April and May, respectively-readings in January 2020 were 2.5% and 1.9%, respectively, mainly due to crude oil prices falling from 2020. The $65/barrel at the beginning of the year fell to $20 at the end of April, and then stabilized as OPEC and Russia reached an agreement to reduce production (about 10% of global production). Until the end of 2020, inflation was significantly lower than before the pandemic. However, starting from the first quarter of 2021, under the combined effect of multiple factors such as a low base, resumption of work and production supported by loose policies, and supply constraints (supply chain and labor) under the impact of the epidemic, U.S. prices began to accelerate upward.</p><p>As of the end of June 2021, the year-on-year increase of the price index ranked from high to low: CPI (5.4%), core CPI (4.5%), PCE (4%), core PCE (3.5%), 16% censored average CPI (2.9%), median CPI (2.2%), median PCE (2.2%), 55% censored average PCE (2.0%). The sharp rise in overall prices and the relative stability of trend indicators show that inflation does not yet have a broad basis. From a structural point of view, the number of subjects with price increases greater than 10%, 5% and 3% accounted for 11.6%, 32.6% and 45.0% respectively. During the two oil crises, the December 1973 values were 12.6%, 48.0%, and 74.8%, and the November 1978 values were 11.2%, 71.7%, and 92.1%, respectively. The proportion of subjects with an increase of more than 10% at the three time points is very close, but the proportion of subjects with price increases of more than 3% and 5% in June 2021 is significantly lower. The conclusions of the structural indicators are consistent with those of the trend indicators.</p><p>In his regular meeting statement in April 2021, Powell put forward the \"temporary inflation hypothesis\" for the first time, saying that the rise in inflation was caused by transitory factors. In the July 2021 \"Monetary Policy Report\", the Federal Reserve described the inflation situation in detail, explained the reasons, and responded to the market's two views on inflation: (1) Without changing monetary policy, as the economy returns to normal, inflationary pressures will subside on their own; (2) Inflationary pressures are persistent and will force the Fed to change its policy stance. Inflationary pressures at that time should have been within the Fed's expectations. In the column, the Federal Reserve mainly demonstrated the \"temporary inflation hypothesis\" from the perspective of inflation expectations. Because medium-and long-term inflation expectation indicators in multiple dimensions show that the 2% inflation target is still anchored. The FOMC did not abandon this hypothesis until its November 2021 regular meeting (during which there were five regular meetings) decided to launch Taper.</p><p>From the rearview mirror, at least in the second-third quarter of 2021, the \"temporary inflation hypothesis\" has a certain degree of credibility. However, after a short revision in the third quarter, the trend and structure of inflation have further deteriorated, causing the Federal Reserve to have to accelerate the pace of normalization. As of July 2022, although core PCE and core CPI have reached periodic tops in March 2022, the median CPI and the two censored average inflation indicators are still hitting new highs. The \"temporary inflation hypothesis\" became a stain on Powell.</p><p><b>Distinguishing the Temporary and Persistent Nature of Inflation</b></p><p>Only by clearly understanding which goods or services are rising in price and their reasons can we more accurately judge the future price trend. A common analysis idea is to open the \"black box\" of the price index, split and subdivide the contribution of goods or services to the overall price index changes, and focus on analyzing the reasons for the price changes of subjects with higher weights or greater contributions. If the reason for the price increase is seasonal or driven by exogenous shocks, inflation may be temporary. Since persistent inflation is often the \"relay\" of temporary inflation, potential price increases should not be ignored.</p><p>In the CPI basket (Figure 2), the weights of the first-level sub-items of goods and services are about 39% and 61%. Compared with the early 1990s, goods decreased by 5 percentage points and services increased by 5 percentage points. Among the eight industry classifications, the top three by weight are: housing (42.1%), transportation (15.7%) and food and beverage (14.8%), accounting for about three-quarters of the total. In the PCE basket, housing (22.6%) and health care (22.3%) are the two single items with the largest weight. The former is 19.5 percentage points lower than the CPI, and the latter is 13.5 percentage points higher than the CPI.</p><p>Figure 2: Weights of US PCE and CPI price indexes</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/57cc097a40674403ac5dbb55c206c806\" tg-width=\"849\" tg-height=\"794\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Data source: CEIC,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/03958\">Orient Securities</a>Wealth Research</p><p>We can first grasp the impact of COVID-19 pandemic on prices as a whole from the distribution of price increases (Figure 3). Take the 121 subdivided items in the core PCE basket as an example. From March 2020 to June 2021, the distribution of price increases has experienced a change from normal to left, and then returned to normal. The kurtosis at the end of the period is lower than that at the beginning of the period, and both the left and right sides show fat tail characteristics, indicating that there are subjects with large ups and downs, and with the passage of time, the fat tail characteristics on the right side are more obvious. There are certain differences in the distribution of goods and services, and the peak and left-deviation characteristics of services are more obvious. This is in line with the peculiarities of the pandemic shock. Because a large number of service industries require close contact, the impact is even more significant. Among commodities, there are also differences between durable goods and non-durable goods. The former has changed from negative growth (average-1.9%) that lasted 25 years before the epidemic to positive growth. In June 2021, the year-on-year growth rate reached 7.2%. This can be mutually verified with the expanding consumption of durable goods in the early stage of recovery-durable goods consumption has formed a substitute for service consumption.</p><p>Figure 3: Distribution of PCE prices during the pandemic (2020.01-2021.06)</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/00f7d0fd07a9b9d3c3d1fe567e02ec3d\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"650\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Data source: BEA, CEIC, Orient Securities Wealth Research</p><p>The first wave of gains in headline PCE inflation came primarily from commodities. The base effect is an important explanation, because commodities with large year-on-year price increases are similar to commodities that fell from March to May 2020, mainly in the energy and transportation industries (such as new and used cars). In May 2021, the core commodity PCE rose by 8.58% year-on-year, and the prices of the energy and transportation industries rose by 28% and 20% year-on-year, contributing about 1/3 of the current inflation-from March 2020 to the end of that year, Both the energy and transportation industry price indexes rose negatively. The highs of year-over-year growth in commodity PCE and core commodity PCE occurred in January and February 2022, respectively, with readings of 11.5 and 15.3%, respectively. By July 2022, it has dropped to 5.6% and 10.8% respectively. Comparatively speaking, the upward trend of service PCE is slow and dominates the trend of core PCE.</p><p>Logically, if the rise and fall of prices is mainly caused by the impact of the epidemic, it will also return to normal as the epidemic subsides and the resumption of work and production advances. Shapiro, an economist at the San Francisco Fed, distinguishes COVID-sensitive and non-COVID-insensitive subjects from two dimensions: quantity and price-if the price or quantity of a good or service changes significantly from February 2020 to April, it is COVID-19 sensitive, otherwise it is non-COVID-19 sensitive (Shapiro, 2020a; 2020b). As shown in Figure 4 (above), the subjects with a large decline in quantity basically belong to the service industry, among which entertainment, travel, hotels, casinos, catering and air transportation have decreased by 80% to 100%. Prices for air transport and hotels also dropped sharply, reaching 23% and 13% respectively. In terms of commodities, the items whose quantity dropped by 40%-60% included: automobiles, jewelry, watches, clothing and footwear. Among them, the price of used cars dropped by 13%, and the price of other items dropped by less than 10%.</p><p>Figure 4: The impact of COVID-19 pandemic on consumer behavior-based on the decomposition of PCE project volume and price</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/779ad3138b067220df0c84a7e96b87d5\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"526\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Data source: BEA, CEIC, Orient Securities Wealth Research</p><p>In the core PCE, COVID-sensitive subjects have a two-thirds weight and are the main source of price changes during the pandemic. Before the epidemic, COVID-19-sensitive subjects contributed about 0.8-1 percentage points to core PCE inflation, which plummeted to 0.3% in April 2020. Due to the base period effect, the contribution in the second quarter of 2021 increased sharply to 2.6%, equivalent to three-quarters of the PCE inflation in the same period. Among COVID-19-sensitive subjects, health services and used cars (cars and trucks) contributed the most to inflation, but for different reasons.</p><p>In the 5 years before the pandemic, the contribution of health services to core PCE inflation was approximately equal to 0.2 percentage points. The pandemic has expanded demand for health services, and superimposed pandemic-related changes in health insurance payment legislation (Shapiro, 2020a), increasing its contribution to 0.6 percentage points in the first quarter of 2021. However, the emergency relief measures are temporary and will act as a drag on price increases when lifted. Actually, PCE<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/HCSG\">Healthcare services</a>The price growth rate will enter a downward channel in March 2021.</p><p>Social distancing measures related to the pandemic have reduced demand for public transportation and boosted demand for used cars. In addition, due to the shortage of chips limiting supply, the widening gap between supply and demand of new cars has increased the contribution of used cars to inflation from-0.1% before the epidemic to 0.5% in early 2021. IHS manufacturer survey data shows that the chip shortage will ease after the third quarter of 2021 (but it may still be in short supply until early 2022).</p><p>In the second and third quarters of 2021, driven by the continued decline in commodity price increases, inflationary pressures in the United States have slowed down. Is temporary inflation in the post-epidemic era a prelude to sustained inflation in the medium and long term, and will inflation spread from the United States to other countries (or regions) in the future? These problems were unknown at the time. Among the world's major economies, only the core CPI inflation of the United States exceeds 4%, followed by the United Kingdom (3.1%), China's core CPI inflation and the harmonized inflation of the euro zone are still lower than 2%, and Japan is still struggling on the edge of deflation.</p><p>The Fed remains confident in emphasizing the temporary nature of inflation. In a commentary at that time, the author also agreed with the credibility of the \"temporary inflation hypothesis\", but emphasized that this \"temporary\" was based on historical attribution and partial analysis, and did not take into account the potential future price increase factors. In the second half of 2021, with the vaccination and the restart of the service industry, the service industry that once dragged down inflation turned into an inflationary<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/838275\">Driving force</a>, such as aviation and accommodation, etc. The virus continues to mutate, which will definitely prolong the recovery cycle of the service industry. The high point of core CPI inflation occurred in February 2022, mainly because core commodity inflation fell sharply after an inflection point (12.4%). However, affected by the conflict between Russia and Ukraine and the sanctions imposed by Western countries on Russia, energy prices will continue to rise in 2022, and the inflection point will not appear until June. Food and services (core and non-core) inflation rates have not reached an inflection point until August. The former is exogenous and is mainly affected by the natural environment, seasonality and the conflict between Russia and Ukraine, while the latter mainly depends on wage increases in the United States. In the short term, the U.S. labor market will remain in short supply, and wage increases will have certain rigidity, which will support service prices. The interpretation of the \"wage-price spiral\" is the key to future inflation trends.</p><p>As of the end of July 2022 (Figure 4, below), the prices of most goods and services have returned to before the epidemic. Compared with February 2020, the goods that still have negative price gaps include: information processing equipment (-6.68%), video and audio equipment (-4.2%), motorcycles (-3.4%); Services are: telecommunications (-6.3%) and insurance (-1.2%), etc. With the exception of a few commodities such as automobiles (new and used), commodity consumption has largely exceeded pre-pandemic levels. However, there are still a large number of service consumption with quantitative gaps, such as photography (-49.4%), tickets for entertainment activities (-32.1%), camping (-31.1%), etc. Although the year-on-year price increase of goods (overall and core) in PCE is still higher than that of services (overall and core), the former has already reached an inflection point in early 2022 (January and February 2022 respectively). By the end of 2022, the year-on-year increase in PCE commodity prices may drop to a level equal to the year-on-year increase in PCE service prices. Service consumption is still on the way to recovery, accounting for more than 65% of nominal PCE spending, which is the main driver of U.S. inflation in the near future and will be for some time to come.</p><p>The formation of lasting inflation in the post-epidemic era does not happen overnight, and there are often different driving factors at different stages. Due to the widespread and asymmetric impact of the epidemic, inflation also has the characteristics of universality and sequence. Compared to pre-pandemic (January 2020) (Figure 5, top left), the CPI goods price index declined more than the CPI services price index, with the largest declines of-2.5% and-0.2%, respectively. Among commodities, the price of non-durable goods fell more than that of durable goods, with the largest declines of-3.8% and-0.2% respectively. Among them, the largest decline in energy prices reached 18%. The bottom of the price index basically appeared in May 2020. From June 2020 to June 2021, the ranking of price rebound magnitude basically matched the ranking of decline magnitude-energy led the gains, goods outweighed services, and durable goods outweighed non-durable goods. By the beginning of 2021, the above-mentioned CPI prices have returned to pre-epidemic prices.</p><p>Therefore, the first wave of inflation that began in the second quarter of 2021 contains a significant base effect, superimposed on the unexpected elasticity of economic recovery, which does have strong temporary characteristics. But the Fed underestimated the persistence of supply chain constraints and the resilience of consumer demand, and also overestimated the elasticity of labor supply. By August 2022, in addition to the high points of energy, non-durable goods and commodity prices, food, durable goods, core goods, core services, services, core CPI and CPI are still hitting new highs. Since July, the decline in the prices of energy and non-durable commodities has driven down the overall price of commodities, and the increase in CPI has slowed down. However, the inflection point of the food and service price index and the year-on-year increase (Figure 16, upper right) has not yet appeared. Service prices are more sticky, or may become the \"last stick\" of the \"relay\" of inflation. It depends primarily on wages and labour market conditions<b>。 What is more optimistic is that the 6-month or 3-month month-on-month highs of CPI and its sub-items have already appeared. The relationship between supply and demand is the ultimate force in determining prices. Changes in supply and demand can also be read from prices. By September 2022, the outlook for inflation can be appropriately optimistic.</b></p><p>Figure 5: Inflation relay-prices for food, durable goods and services are still hitting new highs</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/514d5d2fdac5c001ca8732406f20f22c\" tg-width=\"984\" tg-height=\"951\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Data: CEIC, Orient Securities Wealth Research</p><p>In the process of inflation relay, money plays the role of \"threading the needle\". The extremely loose monetary and fiscal policies implemented by the United States during the epidemic have significantly increased residents' disposable income and savings rate, continued to support domestic demand, and are also an important reason why the inflation rate in the United States is higher than that in other Western economies (Jordà et al., 2022). Since the beginning of 2022, the contraction of fiscal expenditure has begun to drag down GDP growth. The normalization of the Fed's unconventional policies has begun to suppress demand in interest rate-sensitive sectors. However, on the one hand, the structure of inflation is still supply-led; On the other hand, the normalization process initiated by the Federal Reserve lags behind the macroeconomic situation, and the impact of rate hike on aggregate demand has a certain lag. The long-term real interest rate turning positive significantly lags behind the rate hike cycle. Therefore, the Fed can only \"fast-forward\" rate hike. In the forward-looking guidance, the Fed made it clear that it was only convinced that inflation was converging towards the 2% policy target after seeing \"several months of low inflation data.\" The author believes that in order to anchor medium-and long-term inflation expectations, the Federal Reserve will not easily release a \"dovish\" signal until the inflection point of service price and wage increase appears.</p><p></body></html></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> source：<a href=\"https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s/zKPfs2VVncdXqWBynZwJ9A\">陈达飞全球宏观...</a></p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d52e6e6d04d9823325064d60aa26462e","relate_stocks":{".SPX":"S&P 500 Index",".DJI":"道琼斯",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite"},"source_url":"https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s/zKPfs2VVncdXqWBynZwJ9A","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1149561184","content_text":"美国9月CPI同比上涨8.2%，预估为8.1%，前值为8.3%；美国9月CPI环比上涨0.4%，预估为0.2%，前值为0.1%。核心CPI同比6.6%，为新高，主要贡献为服务和核心服务，同比增长分别为7.38%和6.67%，均为新高。如果看6个月环比，核心CPI、服务与核心服务也创了新高。相比8而言，9月数据更“差”。因为8月表1中CPI指标的6个月和3个月环比数据均出现了拐点。截止到2022年8月，能源、非耐用商品和商品价格指数的高点已经出现，食品、耐用商品、核心商品、核心服务、服务、核心CPI和CPI还在创新高。7月以来，能源和非耐用商品价格的下降带动商品整体价格下行，CPI涨势趋缓。但食品和服务业价格指数及同比涨幅的拐点都还没有未出现。服务价格的粘性较强，或成为通胀“接力”的“最后一棒”。它主要取决于工资和劳动力市场条件。通胀前景仍不乐观，还远没有到押注右侧的时候。最值得关注的“灰犀牛”是全球性大罢工。表中黄色填充表示最大值。相比大危机，大流行之后，西方主要经济体的货币政策宽松力度更大，步调更一致，行动更迅速。美联储、英格兰银行和欧洲央行的资产负债表规模 均达到了历史新高。货币政策效应取决于外生冲击的特征及与财政、收入政策的配合。疫情冲击以供给侧负冲击为主，逆周期政策又有着明显的“财政赤字货币化”特征，扩大了供求缺口，增强了通胀压力。极度宽松的货币政策将一场“完美风暴”扼杀在了摇篮里，但经济的“K型” 复苏，叠加大宗商品与风险资产价格的暴涨使货币政策进退两难。本世纪初的日本和2008年之后的美国的QE与通缩并存的经验不能线性外推。无论是美联储制定政策利率，还是市场参与者决定资产配置方案，厘清通胀是临时的还是持续的都至关重要。一般而言，美联储不会因为临时通胀而改变政策立场，市场也不会重新定价。疫情冲击及政策响应给物价带来了极大的扰动，增加了通胀数据中的噪声和识别趋势性和周期性波动的难度。2021年2-3季度，通胀出现了阶段性拐点，增强了“临时通胀假说”的可信度，使美联储误判了通胀的持久性。笔者在当时的评论文章中指出，这一拐点并不牢固 。持久通胀的形成不是一蹴而就的，而是多重临时性因素的“接力”。通胀的波动、趋势与结构美国常用的度量最终商品和服务价格涨幅的指标包括居民消费价格指数（Consumer Price Index，CPI）、个人消费支出（Personal Consumption Expenditures，PCE）价格指数和国内生产总值平减指数 。它们都是通过加权平均而得到的，数值的区别主要源于覆盖面、权重和计算方法的不同。从CPI到GDP平减指数，覆盖面越来越广，后者覆盖了美国国内的所有消费者、企业和政府，以及国外购买的所有最终商品和服务的价格 。CPI和PCE更常见。前者由美国劳工统计局（BLS）编制，后者由美国经济分析局（BEA）编制，但底层数据还是来自BLS。两者在覆盖面和权重上都有区别。美联储更关注后者。整体而言，PCE通胀率与CPI通胀率走势基本一致，前者的水平值和波动性都更低。这可以从两者的编制与计算方法上得到解释（McCully et al.,2007）。一方面，PCE价格指数的覆盖面更广，因为个人支出总额占美国GDP的近70%。它衡量的是所有消费项目的价格变化，而不仅仅是消费者自掏腰包购买的项目；另一方面，覆盖面的不同直接导致了权重的差异，并且，PCE权重的调整更加频繁。例如，保健服务在PCE和CPI中的权重为分别为22%和9%，因为前者包含了消费者自掏腰包支付的保险费、免赔额和共同支付额，以及雇主提供的保险、医疗保险和医疗补助支出，后者只包含了消费者的直接开支。再比如住房，其在PCE中的权重仅为23%，而在CPI中的权重为42%。这意味着，保健服务价格的上涨对PCE价格指数的影响远大于对CPI指数，而住房对CPI的影响更大。PCE价格指数包含了商品价格变化引起的替代效应，能够更准确的刻画消费者真实生活成本的变化。货币政策属于总量政策，影响的是总需求。美联储不太会因为物价的波动性和单一行业（或商品）价格的大幅上涨而改变政策立场。所以，美联储更关注核心价格指数，它从整体（headline）价格指数中剔除了波动性较高的食品和能源。核心价格指数的波动性显著低于整体价格指数（图12，左图）。但是，核心价格指数仍然会受到食品和能源以外的单一行业商品或服务价格的间接影响。如何更好地区分价格的波动和趋势、结构性上涨和普遍性上涨就成为货币政策当局关心的话题。为此，克利夫兰联储编制了CPI和PCE的中位数（median）通胀率和16%截尾平均（trimmed-mean）通胀率。达拉斯联储也编制了一个截尾平均通胀指标，排除了PCE价格指数中涨幅最低的24%和最高的31%的科目（55%截尾平均通胀），在剩余的45%的科目中进行加权平均。相较于核心价格指数而言，中位数和截尾平均通胀率的波动性更低，其中，最低的为达拉斯联储的截尾平均PCE通胀率——用其代替泰勒规则中的通胀率而得到的修正的泰勒规则能够更好的拟合政策利率的走势（Koenig，2019）。此外，还可以计算不同价格涨幅的商品数量的占比，以考察通胀的结构（图1，右图）。图1：如何观察通胀的趋势和结构？数据：美联储，CEIC，东方证券财富研究大流行冲击初期，整体与核心价格涨幅均出现了不同程度的下行。整体价格涨幅下降更大，整体CPI和PCE通胀分别在4月和5月达到0.41%和0.1%的低位——2020年1月的读数分别为2.5%和1.9%，主要原因是原油价格从2020年初的65美元/桶降到了4月底的20美元，后因OPEC与俄罗斯达成减产协议（约全球产量的10%）而企稳。直到2020年底，通胀率都显著低于疫情前。但从2021年1季度开始，在低基数、宽松政策支持下的复工复产和疫情冲击下的供给约束（供应链和劳动）等多重因素共同作用下，美国物价开始加速上行。截止到2021年6月底，价格指数的同比涨幅由高到低排名依次为：CPI（5.4%）、核心CPI（4.5%）、PCE（4%）、核心PCE（3.5%）、16%截尾平均CPI（2.9%）、CPI中值（2.2%）、PCE中值（2.2%）、55%截尾平均PCE（2.0%）。整体物价的大幅上行和趋势指标的相对稳定说明通通胀尚不具备广泛的基础。从结构上看，价格涨幅大于10%、5%和3%的科目数占比分别为11.6%、32.6%和45.0%。在两次石油危机期间，1973年12月的数值分别为12.6%、48.0%和74.8%，1978年11月的数值分别为11.2%、71.7%和92.1%。三个时点涨幅大于10%的科目数占比非常接近，但2021年6月涨价大于3%和5%的科目占比明显偏低。结构指标与趋势指标的结论相一致。在2021年4月的例会声明中，鲍威尔首次提出“临时通胀假说”，称通胀的攀升是由临时性因素（transitory factors）引起的。在2021年7月的《货币政策报告》中 ，美联储详细描述了通胀的形势，解释了原因，回应了市场对于通胀的两种看法：（1）在不改变货币政策的情况下，随着经济回归常态，通胀压力会自行消退；（2）通胀压力是持久的，将迫使美联储不得不转变政策立场。当时的通胀压力应该是美联储预期内的。在专栏中，美联储主要从通胀预期的角度论证了“临时通胀假说” 。因为多个维度的中长期通胀预期指标均显示，2%的通胀目标仍被锚定。FOMC直到2021年11月例会（期间共有5次例会）决定启动Taper时才放弃这一假说。从后视镜中来看，至少在2021年2-3季度，“临时通胀假说”是有一定可信度的，只是经过3季度的短暂修正后，通胀的趋势和结构进一步恶化，致使美联储不得不加快正常化的步伐。截止到2022年7月，虽然核心PCE和核心CPI在2022年3月出现了阶段性顶部，但CPI中值和两个截尾平均通胀指标还在创新高。“临时通胀假说”成了鲍威尔的一个污点。通胀的临时性与持久性之辨只有清楚地了解哪些商品或服务在涨价及其原因之后，才能更准确的判断未来的价格走势。一个常见的分析思路是打开价格指数的“黑箱”，拆分细分商品或服务在总体价格指数变化中贡献，重点分析权重较高的或贡献较大的科目的价格变化的原因。如果涨价的原因是季节性的，或者是外生冲击驱动的，通胀就可能是临时的。由于持久通胀往往是临时通胀的“接力”，也不应忽视潜在的涨价因素。在CPI的篮子中（图2），商品与服务一级分项的权重约为39%和61% ，相比上世纪90年代初而言，商品下降了5个百分点，服务增加了5个百分点。在8个行业分类中，权重排名前三的分别为：住房（42.1%）、交通（15.7%）和食品饮料（14.8%），合计占比约四分之三。在PCE篮子当中，住房（22.6%）和医疗保健（22.3%）是权重最大的两个单一项目，前者较CPI低19.5个百分点，后者较CPI高13.5个百分点。图2：美国PCE和CPI价格指数的权重数据来源：CEIC,东方证券财富研究可先从物价涨幅的分布中整体把握新冠疫情对物价的影响（图3）。以核心PCE篮子中的121个细分项目为例。从2020年3月到2021年6月，物价涨幅的分布经历了从正态到左偏，再回归到正态的变迁。期末的峰度低于期初，左右两侧都呈现出肥尾特征，表明存在涨跌幅都较大的科目，而且随着时间的推移，右侧的肥尾特征更明显。商品和服务项目的分布存在一定的差异，服务的尖峰和左偏特征更加明显。这符合大流行冲击的特殊性。因为大量服务业要求密切接触，受到的冲击也更显著。在商品中，耐用品和非耐用品也有差异，前者从疫情前持续25年的负增长（平均-1.9%）转变为正增长，2021年6月同比增速达到了7.2%。这与复苏早期不断扩张的耐用品消费可相互验证——耐用品消费对服务消费形成了替代。图3：大流行期间PCE物价的分布（2020.01-2021.06）数据来源：BEA，CEIC，东方证券财富研究整体PCE通胀的第一波上涨主要源自商品。基数效应是一个重要解释，因为物价同比涨幅较大的商品与2020年3-5月下跌的商品类似，主要是能源和交通运输业（比如新车和二手车）。2021年5月，核心商品PCE同比涨幅达到了8.58%，能源和交通运输业物价同比上涨了28%和20%，约贡献了当期通胀的1/3——从2020年3月到当年年底，能源和交通运输业物价指数的涨幅均为负。商品PCE和核心商品PCE同比增长的高点分别出现在2022年1月和2月，读数分别为11.5和15.3%。至2022年7月，已经分别降到了5.6%和10.8%。比较而言，服务业PCE的上行趋势较缓，且主导了核心PCE的走势。逻辑上，如果物价的涨跌主要是由疫情冲击导致的，那也将随着疫情的消退和复工复产的推进而回归常态。旧金山联储经济学家夏皮罗（Shapiro）从数量与价格两个维度区分了新冠敏感型（COVID-sensitive）和非新冠敏感型（COVID-insensitive）科目——如果某商品或服务的价格或数量从2020年2月到4月发生了显著的变化，则是新冠敏感型的，反之则是非新冠敏感的（Shapiro，2020a；2020b）。如图4（上图）所示，数量降幅较大的科目基本上属于服务业，其中，降幅80%到100%之间的有娱乐、旅行、酒店、赌场、餐饮和航空运输等。航空运输和酒店的价格也大幅下降，分别达到了23%和13%。商品方面，数量降幅分布在40%-60%之间的项目包括：汽车、珠宝、手表、服装和鞋类，其中，二手车价格下降了13%，其它项目价格降幅均在10%以内。图4：新冠疫情对消费行为的影响——基于对PCE项目量价的分解数据来源：BEA，CEIC，东方证券财富研究在核心PCE中，新冠敏感型科目的权重达到了三分之二，是大流行期间价格变化的主要来源。疫情前，新冠敏感型科目在核心PCE通胀中贡献了约0.8-1个百分点，2020年4月骤降到0.3%。由于基期效应，2021年2季度的贡献陡增至2.6%，相当于同期PCE通胀中的四分之三。在新冠敏感型科目中，保健服务与二手车（汽车与卡车）对通胀的贡献最大，但原因不尽相同。在疫情之前的5年中，保健服务在核心PCE通胀中的贡献约等于0.2个百分点。疫情扩张了保健服务需求，叠加与流行病相关的医疗保险支付立法变化（Shapiro，2020a），使其贡献在2021年1季度增加到了0.6个百分点。然而，紧急救济措施是暂时的，取消后将成为价格上涨的拖累因素。实际上，PCE医疗保健服务的价格增速在2021年3月就进入下降通道。与疫情相关的社交隔离措施降低了公共交通需求，提升了二手车需求。又由于芯片的短缺限制了供给，新车供求缺口的扩大使二手车对通胀的贡献从疫情之前的-0.1%提高到了2021年初的0.5%。IHS生产商调研数据显示，芯片短缺状况将在2021年3季度之后有所缓解 （但直到2022年初或仍将处于供不应求的状态）。2021年2-3季度，在商品价格涨幅持续回落的带动下，美国通胀压力有所放缓。后疫情时代的临时通胀是否是中长期持续通胀的前奏，未来通胀是否还会从美国扩散到其他国家（或地区）？这些问题在当时都是未知的。在世界主要经济体中，只有美国核心CPI通胀超过了4%，排在第二的是英国（3.1%），中国核心CPI通胀和欧元区调和通胀仍低于2%，日本还挣扎在通货紧缩的边缘。美联储仍信心满满地强调通胀的临时性。在当时的一篇评论文章中，笔者也认同“临时通胀假说”的可信性，但强调这一“临时性”是建立在历史归因和局部分析基础之上的，并未考虑到未来潜在的涨价因素 。2021年下半年，随着疫苗的接种和服务业的重启，曾经拖累通胀的服务业转而成为通胀的驱动力，如航空和住宿等。病毒还在持续变异，必将拉长服务业复苏的周期。核心CPI通胀的高点出现在2022年2月，主要是因为核心商品通胀出现拐点（12.4%）后大幅下行。然而，受俄乌冲突和西方国家对俄制裁的影响，能源价格在2022年继续上涨，拐点直到6月才出现。食品和服务业（核心与非核心）通胀率直到8月还未出现拐点。前者是外生的，主要受自然环境、季节性和俄乌冲突的影响，后者则主要取决于美国国内的工资涨幅。短期内，美国劳动力市场仍将维持供不应求的状况，工资上涨具有一定的刚性，会对服务价格形成支撑。“工资-物价螺旋”的演绎是未来通胀走势的关键 。截止到2022年7月底（图4，下图），大多数商品和服务科目的价格均已经回到疫情之前，与2020年2月相比还存在负价格缺口的商品有：信息处理设备（-6.68%）、视频和音频设备（-4.2%）、摩托车（-3.4%）；服务有：电信（-6.3%）和保险（-1.2%）等。除汽车（新车和二手车 ）等少数商品外，商品消费量已基本超过了疫情之前的水平。但仍有大量服务消费存在数量缺口，如摄影（-49.4%）、娱乐活动门票（-32.1%）、露营（-31.1%）等。虽然PCE当中的商品（整体与核心）价格同比涨幅仍高于服务（整体与核心），但前者已经在2022年初出现了拐点（分别为2022年1月和2月）。至2022年底，PCE商品价格同比涨幅或下降至与PCE服务价格同比涨幅相等的水平。服务消费仍在恢复的路上，其在名义PCE支出中的比重超过65% ，是近期、也将是未来一段时间内美国通胀的主要驱动因素。后疫情时代持久通胀的形成并不是一蹴而就，在不同阶段往往有不同的驱动因素。由于疫情冲击的广泛性和非对称性，通胀也存在普遍性和前后相继的特征。与疫情前（2020年1月）相比（图5，左上），CPI商品比CPI服务价格指数跌幅更大，最大跌幅分别为-2.5%和-0.2%。在商品中，非耐用品价格较耐用品价格回落幅度更大，最大跌幅分别为-3.8%和-0.2%，其中，能源价格最大跌幅达到了18%。物价指数的谷底基本出现在2020年5月。从2020年6月到2021年6月，价格反弹幅度的排名与下跌幅度排名基本匹配——能源领涨，商品大于服务，耐用品大于非耐用品。至2021年初，上述CPI大类价格均已回到疫情前。所以，始于2021年2季度的第一波通胀包含了显著的基数效应，叠加超预期的经济复苏弹性，确实具有较强的临时性特征。但美联储低估了供应链约束的持久性和消费需求的韧性，也高估了劳动供给的弹性。到2022年8月，除能源、非耐用商品和商品价格的高点已经出现，食品、耐用商品、核心商品、核心服务、服务、核心CPI和CPI还在创新高。7月以来，能源和非耐用商品价格的下降带动商品整体价格下行，CPI涨势趋缓。但食品和服务业价格指数及同比涨幅（图16，右上）的拐点都还没有未出现。服务价格的粘性更强，或成为通胀“接力”的“最后一棒”。它主要取决于工资和劳动力市场条件。较为乐观的是，CPI及其分项的6个月或3个月环比的高点均已经出现。供求关系是决定价格的终极力量。从价格中也能读到供求关系的变化。时至2022年9月，对通胀的前景可以适当乐观一些了。图5：通胀接力——食品、耐用商品和服务价格还在创新高数据：CEIC，东方证券财富研究在通胀接力的过程中，货币发挥着“穿针引线”的作用。美国在疫情期间实施的极度宽松的货币与财政政策大幅提高了居民可支配收入和储蓄率，持续支撑着内需，也是美国较其它西方经济体通胀率更高的重要原因（Jordà et al., 2022）。2022年初来，财政支出的收缩开始对GDP增速形成拖累。美联储非常规政策的正常化已经开始对利率敏感性部门的需求形成压制。但是，一方面，通胀的结构仍是供给主导 ；另一方面，本次美联储启动正常化的进程落后于宏观经济形势，加息对总需求的影响又存在一定的滞后性，长端实际利率转正明显滞后于加息周期。所以，美联储只能“快进式”加息。在前瞻指引中，美联储明确只有看到“数个月低通胀数据” 才确信通胀正在向2%的政策目标收敛。笔者认为，为了锚定中长期通胀预期，在服务价格和工资上涨的拐点出现之前，美联储都不会轻易释放“鸽派”信号。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"ESmain":0.9,".IXIC":0.9,".DJI":0.9,".SPX":0.9,"NQmain":0.9,"YMmain":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":851,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9917630434,"gmtCreate":1665495773628,"gmtModify":1676537616228,"author":{"id":"3578029508189134","authorId":"3578029508189134","name":"SOON141319","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/86730deac042a9c977855eae3f27fe86","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3578029508189134","authorIdStr":"3578029508189134"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"💛","listText":"💛","text":"💛","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9917630434","repostId":"666167007","repostType":1,"repost":{"id":666167007,"gmtCreate":1665487860000,"gmtModify":1676537615632,"author":{"id":"3525994231964285","authorId":"3525994231964285","name":"读懂财经","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2302da3d2e7be3c9900959ee0a880626","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3525994231964285","authorIdStr":"3525994231964285"},"themes":[],"title":"日本家電是如何輸掉全球化戰爭的？","htmlText":"©讀懂財經·消費組原創/出品作者 | 楊揚編輯 | 夏益軍櫻花，是日本的國花。這是一種先開花後長葉的喬木植物，花開的時間比較短，因此有“櫻花七日”的說法。但這種短暫而燦爛的開花方式，卻讓日本人深深折服，因此也被尊爲日本精神。在某種程度上，日本家電的故事猶如櫻花一般，短暫而美麗。曾經，日本企業是全球家電領域的絕對王者。在1992年全球十家最大的家電品牌裏，日本佔據了6席。索尼、松下、東芝等家電品牌甚至把美國本土品牌衝的七零八落。日本家電輝煌背後，是由數代人的心血澆築的。在通往世界家電山頂的路上，日本企業走了一百年：索尼成立在1946年、松下成立於1918年、東芝成立的時間最早在1875年。但從2010年開始，日本家電企業急速直下。比如冰箱產業，2019年其海外供貨量較2010年下降四分之三。日立家電營收額不到海爾的十分之一。這就是日本家電企業的宿命：花一百年的時間成爲日本製造業的驕傲，卻在十年時間裏極速墜落。回顧近十年全球家電行業的變化，我們很難日本家電品牌的沒落歸結到單一原因。在這個典型的日本“悲劇”裏，不斷縮小的技術差距、錯失全球化分工的產業趨勢以及長達數十年的經濟危機，都有着舉重輕重的戲碼。/ 01 /百年登頂，十年隕落日本家電的崛起，要追蹤到另一支柱產業的重挫。二十世紀七十年代以前，日本製造業主要以中低端的重化工業爲主。石油危機直接導致日本工業製成品的成本價飆升，1974年，日本GDP出現戰後首次下滑，增長率從上年的35.86%暴跌至11%。日本內閣意識到，必須改變工業結構，於是出臺《日本經濟70年代展望》，提出把以半導體爲核心的技術密集型產業作爲主導產業發展。而在此之前，日本本身也具有一定的產業基礎，松下、日立等日本家電品牌在1910年前後就已成立。產業基礎加上政策刺激，日本家電品牌很快形成了技術優勢。於是，從70年代之後，大多數日本公司的發展路徑是：他們先突破了某","listText":"©讀懂財經·消費組原創/出品作者 | 楊揚編輯 | 夏益軍櫻花，是日本的國花。這是一種先開花後長葉的喬木植物，花開的時間比較短，因此有“櫻花七日”的說法。但這種短暫而燦爛的開花方式，卻讓日本人深深折服，因此也被尊爲日本精神。在某種程度上，日本家電的故事猶如櫻花一般，短暫而美麗。曾經，日本企業是全球家電領域的絕對王者。在1992年全球十家最大的家電品牌裏，日本佔據了6席。索尼、松下、東芝等家電品牌甚至把美國本土品牌衝的七零八落。日本家電輝煌背後，是由數代人的心血澆築的。在通往世界家電山頂的路上，日本企業走了一百年：索尼成立在1946年、松下成立於1918年、東芝成立的時間最早在1875年。但從2010年開始，日本家電企業急速直下。比如冰箱產業，2019年其海外供貨量較2010年下降四分之三。日立家電營收額不到海爾的十分之一。這就是日本家電企業的宿命：花一百年的時間成爲日本製造業的驕傲，卻在十年時間裏極速墜落。回顧近十年全球家電行業的變化，我們很難日本家電品牌的沒落歸結到單一原因。在這個典型的日本“悲劇”裏，不斷縮小的技術差距、錯失全球化分工的產業趨勢以及長達數十年的經濟危機，都有着舉重輕重的戲碼。/ 01 /百年登頂，十年隕落日本家電的崛起，要追蹤到另一支柱產業的重挫。二十世紀七十年代以前，日本製造業主要以中低端的重化工業爲主。石油危機直接導致日本工業製成品的成本價飆升，1974年，日本GDP出現戰後首次下滑，增長率從上年的35.86%暴跌至11%。日本內閣意識到，必須改變工業結構，於是出臺《日本經濟70年代展望》，提出把以半導體爲核心的技術密集型產業作爲主導產業發展。而在此之前，日本本身也具有一定的產業基礎，松下、日立等日本家電品牌在1910年前後就已成立。產業基礎加上政策刺激，日本家電品牌很快形成了技術優勢。於是，從70年代之後，大多數日本公司的發展路徑是：他們先突破了某","text":"©讀懂財經·消費組原創/出品作者 | 楊揚編輯 | 夏益軍櫻花，是日本的國花。這是一種先開花後長葉的喬木植物，花開的時間比較短，因此有“櫻花七日”的說法。但這種短暫而燦爛的開花方式，卻讓日本人深深折服，因此也被尊爲日本精神。在某種程度上，日本家電的故事猶如櫻花一般，短暫而美麗。曾經，日本企業是全球家電領域的絕對王者。在1992年全球十家最大的家電品牌裏，日本佔據了6席。索尼、松下、東芝等家電品牌甚至把美國本土品牌衝的七零八落。日本家電輝煌背後，是由數代人的心血澆築的。在通往世界家電山頂的路上，日本企業走了一百年：索尼成立在1946年、松下成立於1918年、東芝成立的時間最早在1875年。但從2010年開始，日本家電企業急速直下。比如冰箱產業，2019年其海外供貨量較2010年下降四分之三。日立家電營收額不到海爾的十分之一。這就是日本家電企業的宿命：花一百年的時間成爲日本製造業的驕傲，卻在十年時間裏極速墜落。回顧近十年全球家電行業的變化，我們很難日本家電品牌的沒落歸結到單一原因。在這個典型的日本“悲劇”裏，不斷縮小的技術差距、錯失全球化分工的產業趨勢以及長達數十年的經濟危機，都有着舉重輕重的戲碼。/ 01 /百年登頂，十年隕落日本家電的崛起，要追蹤到另一支柱產業的重挫。二十世紀七十年代以前，日本製造業主要以中低端的重化工業爲主。石油危機直接導致日本工業製成品的成本價飆升，1974年，日本GDP出現戰後首次下滑，增長率從上年的35.86%暴跌至11%。日本內閣意識到，必須改變工業結構，於是出臺《日本經濟70年代展望》，提出把以半導體爲核心的技術密集型產業作爲主導產業發展。而在此之前，日本本身也具有一定的產業基礎，松下、日立等日本家電品牌在1910年前後就已成立。產業基礎加上政策刺激，日本家電品牌很快形成了技術優勢。於是，從70年代之後，大多數日本公司的發展路徑是：他們先突破了某","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/81740ab4ffd1473d83cd3210e6d74cf2","width":"-1","height":"-1"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":2,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/666167007","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":0,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":807,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9915780228,"gmtCreate":1665109133364,"gmtModify":1676537558913,"author":{"id":"3578029508189134","authorId":"3578029508189134","name":"SOON141319","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/86730deac042a9c977855eae3f27fe86","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3578029508189134","authorIdStr":"3578029508189134"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a 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[呆住]","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9942363489","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":518,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9980103372,"gmtCreate":1665667681796,"gmtModify":1676537645722,"author":{"id":"3578029508189134","authorId":"3578029508189134","name":"SOON141319","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/86730deac042a9c977855eae3f27fe86","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3578029508189134","idStr":"3578029508189134"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"[财迷]&nbsp;","listText":"[财迷]&nbsp;","text":"[财迷]","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9980103372","repostId":"1149561184","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1149561184","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1665666953,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1149561184?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2022-10-13 21:15","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"U.S. inflation relay: looming'dawn '","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1149561184","media":"陈达飞全球宏观...","summary":"美国9月CPI同比上涨8.2%，预估为8.1%，前值为8.3%；美国9月CPI环比上涨0.4%，预估为0.2%，前值为0.1%。核心CPI同比6.6%，为新高，主要贡献为服务和核心服务，同比增长分别为","content":"<p><html><head></head><body>The U.S. CPI rose 8.2% year-on-year in September, which was estimated to be 8.1%, and the previous value was 8.3%; The U.S. CPI rose 0.4% month-on-month in September, expected to be 0.2%, and the previous value was 0.1%. The core CPI was 6.6% year-on-year, a new high. The main contribution was services and core services, with year-on-year growth of 7.38% and 6.67% respectively, both new highs. If you look at the six-month month-on-month, core CPI, services and core services have also hit new highs.<b>Compared with August, the data in September was even \"worse\". Because the 6-month and 3-month month-on-month data of the CPI indicator in Table 1 in August both showed inflection points.</b></p><p>As of August 2022, the highs of energy, non-durable goods and commodity price indexes have appeared, and food, durable goods, core goods, core services, services, core CPI and CPI are still hitting new highs. Since July, the decline in the prices of energy and non-durable commodities has driven down the overall price of commodities, and the increase in CPI has slowed down. However, the inflection point of the food and service price index and the year-on-year increase has not yet appeared. The stickiness of service prices is strong, or it may become the \"last stick\" of inflation \"relay\". It depends primarily on wages and labour market conditions.<b>The outlook for inflation is still not optimistic, and it is far from time to bet on the right. The most noteworthy \"grey rhino\" is the global strike.</b></p><p>The yellow padding in the table indicates the maximum value.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3a34bf13bf4d9022dd058d282b1a9885\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"536\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/71f3534b1b81c47cc1da00f7395d87ae\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"602\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Compared with the Great Crisis, after the pandemic, the monetary policy of major Western economies has been more easing, more consistent, and more rapid. The balance sheets of the Federal Reserve, the Bank of England and the European Central Bank have all reached record highs. The effect of monetary policy depends on the characteristics of exogenous shocks and its cooperation with fiscal and revenue policies. The impact of the epidemic is mainly a negative impact on the supply side, and counter-cyclical policies have obvious characteristics of \"fiscal deficit monetization\", which widens the gap between supply and demand and increases inflationary pressure. The extremely loose monetary policy killed a \"perfect storm\" in the cradle, but the \"K-shaped\" recovery of the economy and the skyrocketing prices of commodities and risky assets put monetary policy in a dilemma. The experience of coexistence of QE and deflation in Japan at the beginning of this century and the United States after 2008 cannot be linearly extrapolated.</p><p>Whether the Federal Reserve sets policy rates or market participants decide asset allocation plans, it is crucial to clarify whether inflation is temporary or persistent. Generally speaking, the Fed will not change its policy stance due to temporary inflation, and the market will not reprice. The impact of the epidemic and policy response have brought great disturbances to prices, increasing the noise in inflation data and making it difficult to identify trend and cyclical fluctuations. In the second and third quarters of 2021, inflation reached a periodic inflection point, which enhanced the credibility of the \"temporary inflation hypothesis\" and caused the Federal Reserve to misjudge the persistence of inflation. The author pointed out in the commentary at that time that this inflection point was not solid. The formation of lasting inflation is not achieved overnight, but a \"relay\" of multiple temporary factors.</p><p><b>Fluctuations, Trends and Structure of Inflation</b></p><p>Commonly used indicators to measure the price increase of final goods and services in the United States include the Consumer Price Index (CPI), the Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) price index, and the GDP deflator. They are all obtained by weighted averaging, and the difference in values mainly stems from the differences in coverage, weights and calculation methods. The coverage is increasingly broad, from the CPI to the GDP deflator, which covers all consumers, businesses, and governments within the United States, as well as the prices of all final goods and services purchased abroad. CPI and PCE are more common. The former is compiled by the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) and the latter by the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA), but the underlying data is still from BLS. There are differences between the two in coverage and weight. The Fed is more focused on the latter.</p><p>Overall, the trend of PCE inflation rate and CPI inflation rate is basically the same, with the former having lower level value and volatility. This can be explained by the compilation and calculation methods of both (McCully et al., 2007). On the one hand, the PCE price index has broader coverage, as total personal spending accounts for nearly 70% of U.S. GDP. It measures price changes across all consumption items, not just those that consumers buy out of their own pockets; On the other hand, the difference of coverage directly leads to the difference of weight, and the adjustment of PCE weight is more frequent. For example, health care services are weighted at 22% and 9% in the PCE and CPI, respectively, because the former includes insurance premiums, deductibles, and co-payments paid by consumers out of pocket, and employer-provided insurance, Medicare, and Medicaid expenditures, while the latter includes only direct consumer expenditures. Another example is housing, whose weight in PCE is only 23%, while its weight in CPI is 42%. This means that the increase in the price of health services has a much greater impact on the PCE price index than on the CPI index, while housing has a greater impact on the CPI. PCE price index includes the substitution effect caused by the change of commodity price, which can more accurately depict the change of consumers' real living cost.</p><p>Monetary policy is an aggregate policy, which affects aggregate demand. It is unlikely that the Fed will change its policy stance because of the volatility of prices and the sharp increase in the price of a single industry (or commodity). Therefore, the Federal Reserve pays more attention to the core price index, which excludes food and energy with high volatility from the headline price index. The volatility of the core price index is significantly lower than the overall price index (Figure 12, left panel). However, the core price index will still be indirectly affected by the prices of goods or services in a single industry other than food and energy. How to better distinguish between price fluctuations and trends, structural rises and universal rises has become a topic of concern to monetary policy authorities.</p><p>To this end, the Cleveland Fed compiled the median inflation rate of CPI and PCE and the 16% trimmed-mean inflation rate. The Dallas Fed has also compiled a censored average inflation measure, excluding the lowest 24% increase and the highest 31% increase in the PCE price index (55% censored average inflation), and weighting the average among the remaining 45%. Compared with the core price index, the median and censored average inflation rates are less volatile, with the lowest being the Dallas Fed's censored average PCE inflation rate-the modified Taylor rule obtained by replacing the inflation rate in the Taylor rule can better fit the trend of policy interest rates (Koenig, 2019). In addition, the proportion of the number of goods with different price increases can also be calculated to examine the structure of inflation (Figure 1, right).</p><p>Figure 1: How to observe the trend and structure of inflation?</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f9b1d64591dab845dfb7a9dff41721e1\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"476\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Data: Federal Reserve, CEIC,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/600958\">Orient Securities</a>Wealth Research</p><p>At the beginning of the pandemic, both overall and core price increases declined to varying degrees. Overall price gains fell even more, with overall CPI and PCE inflation reaching lows of 0.41% and 0.1% in April and May, respectively-readings in January 2020 were 2.5% and 1.9%, respectively, mainly due to crude oil prices falling from 2020. The $65/barrel at the beginning of the year fell to $20 at the end of April, and then stabilized as OPEC and Russia reached an agreement to reduce production (about 10% of global production). Until the end of 2020, inflation was significantly lower than before the pandemic. However, starting from the first quarter of 2021, under the combined effect of multiple factors such as a low base, resumption of work and production supported by loose policies, and supply constraints (supply chain and labor) under the impact of the epidemic, U.S. prices began to accelerate upward.</p><p>As of the end of June 2021, the year-on-year increase of the price index ranked from high to low: CPI (5.4%), core CPI (4.5%), PCE (4%), core PCE (3.5%), 16% censored average CPI (2.9%), median CPI (2.2%), median PCE (2.2%), 55% censored average PCE (2.0%). The sharp rise in overall prices and the relative stability of trend indicators show that inflation does not yet have a broad basis. From a structural point of view, the number of subjects with price increases greater than 10%, 5% and 3% accounted for 11.6%, 32.6% and 45.0% respectively. During the two oil crises, the December 1973 values were 12.6%, 48.0%, and 74.8%, and the November 1978 values were 11.2%, 71.7%, and 92.1%, respectively. The proportion of subjects with an increase of more than 10% at the three time points is very close, but the proportion of subjects with price increases of more than 3% and 5% in June 2021 is significantly lower. The conclusions of the structural indicators are consistent with those of the trend indicators.</p><p>In his regular meeting statement in April 2021, Powell put forward the \"temporary inflation hypothesis\" for the first time, saying that the rise in inflation was caused by transitory factors. In the July 2021 \"Monetary Policy Report\", the Federal Reserve described the inflation situation in detail, explained the reasons, and responded to the market's two views on inflation: (1) Without changing monetary policy, as the economy returns to normal, inflationary pressures will subside on their own; (2) Inflationary pressures are persistent and will force the Fed to change its policy stance. Inflationary pressures at that time should have been within the Fed's expectations. In the column, the Federal Reserve mainly demonstrated the \"temporary inflation hypothesis\" from the perspective of inflation expectations. Because medium-and long-term inflation expectation indicators in multiple dimensions show that the 2% inflation target is still anchored. The FOMC did not abandon this hypothesis until its November 2021 regular meeting (during which there were five regular meetings) decided to launch Taper.</p><p>From the rearview mirror, at least in the second-third quarter of 2021, the \"temporary inflation hypothesis\" has a certain degree of credibility. However, after a short revision in the third quarter, the trend and structure of inflation have further deteriorated, causing the Federal Reserve to have to accelerate the pace of normalization. As of July 2022, although core PCE and core CPI have reached periodic tops in March 2022, the median CPI and the two censored average inflation indicators are still hitting new highs. The \"temporary inflation hypothesis\" became a stain on Powell.</p><p><b>Distinguishing the Temporary and Persistent Nature of Inflation</b></p><p>Only by clearly understanding which goods or services are rising in price and their reasons can we more accurately judge the future price trend. A common analysis idea is to open the \"black box\" of the price index, split and subdivide the contribution of goods or services to the overall price index changes, and focus on analyzing the reasons for the price changes of subjects with higher weights or greater contributions. If the reason for the price increase is seasonal or driven by exogenous shocks, inflation may be temporary. Since persistent inflation is often the \"relay\" of temporary inflation, potential price increases should not be ignored.</p><p>In the CPI basket (Figure 2), the weights of the first-level sub-items of goods and services are about 39% and 61%. Compared with the early 1990s, goods decreased by 5 percentage points and services increased by 5 percentage points. Among the eight industry classifications, the top three by weight are: housing (42.1%), transportation (15.7%) and food and beverage (14.8%), accounting for about three-quarters of the total. In the PCE basket, housing (22.6%) and health care (22.3%) are the two single items with the largest weight. The former is 19.5 percentage points lower than the CPI, and the latter is 13.5 percentage points higher than the CPI.</p><p>Figure 2: Weights of US PCE and CPI price indexes</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/57cc097a40674403ac5dbb55c206c806\" tg-width=\"849\" tg-height=\"794\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Data source: CEIC,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/03958\">Orient Securities</a>Wealth Research</p><p>We can first grasp the impact of COVID-19 pandemic on prices as a whole from the distribution of price increases (Figure 3). Take the 121 subdivided items in the core PCE basket as an example. From March 2020 to June 2021, the distribution of price increases has experienced a change from normal to left, and then returned to normal. The kurtosis at the end of the period is lower than that at the beginning of the period, and both the left and right sides show fat tail characteristics, indicating that there are subjects with large ups and downs, and with the passage of time, the fat tail characteristics on the right side are more obvious. There are certain differences in the distribution of goods and services, and the peak and left-deviation characteristics of services are more obvious. This is in line with the peculiarities of the pandemic shock. Because a large number of service industries require close contact, the impact is even more significant. Among commodities, there are also differences between durable goods and non-durable goods. The former has changed from negative growth (average-1.9%) that lasted 25 years before the epidemic to positive growth. In June 2021, the year-on-year growth rate reached 7.2%. This can be mutually verified with the expanding consumption of durable goods in the early stage of recovery-durable goods consumption has formed a substitute for service consumption.</p><p>Figure 3: Distribution of PCE prices during the pandemic (2020.01-2021.06)</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/00f7d0fd07a9b9d3c3d1fe567e02ec3d\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"650\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Data source: BEA, CEIC, Orient Securities Wealth Research</p><p>The first wave of gains in headline PCE inflation came primarily from commodities. The base effect is an important explanation, because commodities with large year-on-year price increases are similar to commodities that fell from March to May 2020, mainly in the energy and transportation industries (such as new and used cars). In May 2021, the core commodity PCE rose by 8.58% year-on-year, and the prices of the energy and transportation industries rose by 28% and 20% year-on-year, contributing about 1/3 of the current inflation-from March 2020 to the end of that year, Both the energy and transportation industry price indexes rose negatively. The highs of year-over-year growth in commodity PCE and core commodity PCE occurred in January and February 2022, respectively, with readings of 11.5 and 15.3%, respectively. By July 2022, it has dropped to 5.6% and 10.8% respectively. Comparatively speaking, the upward trend of service PCE is slow and dominates the trend of core PCE.</p><p>Logically, if the rise and fall of prices is mainly caused by the impact of the epidemic, it will also return to normal as the epidemic subsides and the resumption of work and production advances. Shapiro, an economist at the San Francisco Fed, distinguishes COVID-sensitive and non-COVID-insensitive subjects from two dimensions: quantity and price-if the price or quantity of a good or service changes significantly from February 2020 to April, it is COVID-19 sensitive, otherwise it is non-COVID-19 sensitive (Shapiro, 2020a; 2020b). As shown in Figure 4 (above), the subjects with a large decline in quantity basically belong to the service industry, among which entertainment, travel, hotels, casinos, catering and air transportation have decreased by 80% to 100%. Prices for air transport and hotels also dropped sharply, reaching 23% and 13% respectively. In terms of commodities, the items whose quantity dropped by 40%-60% included: automobiles, jewelry, watches, clothing and footwear. Among them, the price of used cars dropped by 13%, and the price of other items dropped by less than 10%.</p><p>Figure 4: The impact of COVID-19 pandemic on consumer behavior-based on the decomposition of PCE project volume and price</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/779ad3138b067220df0c84a7e96b87d5\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"526\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Data source: BEA, CEIC, Orient Securities Wealth Research</p><p>In the core PCE, COVID-sensitive subjects have a two-thirds weight and are the main source of price changes during the pandemic. Before the epidemic, COVID-19-sensitive subjects contributed about 0.8-1 percentage points to core PCE inflation, which plummeted to 0.3% in April 2020. Due to the base period effect, the contribution in the second quarter of 2021 increased sharply to 2.6%, equivalent to three-quarters of the PCE inflation in the same period. Among COVID-19-sensitive subjects, health services and used cars (cars and trucks) contributed the most to inflation, but for different reasons.</p><p>In the 5 years before the pandemic, the contribution of health services to core PCE inflation was approximately equal to 0.2 percentage points. The pandemic has expanded demand for health services, and superimposed pandemic-related changes in health insurance payment legislation (Shapiro, 2020a), increasing its contribution to 0.6 percentage points in the first quarter of 2021. However, the emergency relief measures are temporary and will act as a drag on price increases when lifted. Actually, PCE<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/HCSG\">Healthcare services</a>The price growth rate will enter a downward channel in March 2021.</p><p>Social distancing measures related to the pandemic have reduced demand for public transportation and boosted demand for used cars. In addition, due to the shortage of chips limiting supply, the widening gap between supply and demand of new cars has increased the contribution of used cars to inflation from-0.1% before the epidemic to 0.5% in early 2021. IHS manufacturer survey data shows that the chip shortage will ease after the third quarter of 2021 (but it may still be in short supply until early 2022).</p><p>In the second and third quarters of 2021, driven by the continued decline in commodity price increases, inflationary pressures in the United States have slowed down. Is temporary inflation in the post-epidemic era a prelude to sustained inflation in the medium and long term, and will inflation spread from the United States to other countries (or regions) in the future? These problems were unknown at the time. Among the world's major economies, only the core CPI inflation of the United States exceeds 4%, followed by the United Kingdom (3.1%), China's core CPI inflation and the harmonized inflation of the euro zone are still lower than 2%, and Japan is still struggling on the edge of deflation.</p><p>The Fed remains confident in emphasizing the temporary nature of inflation. In a commentary at that time, the author also agreed with the credibility of the \"temporary inflation hypothesis\", but emphasized that this \"temporary\" was based on historical attribution and partial analysis, and did not take into account the potential future price increase factors. In the second half of 2021, with the vaccination and the restart of the service industry, the service industry that once dragged down inflation turned into an inflationary<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/838275\">Driving force</a>, such as aviation and accommodation, etc. The virus continues to mutate, which will definitely prolong the recovery cycle of the service industry. The high point of core CPI inflation occurred in February 2022, mainly because core commodity inflation fell sharply after an inflection point (12.4%). However, affected by the conflict between Russia and Ukraine and the sanctions imposed by Western countries on Russia, energy prices will continue to rise in 2022, and the inflection point will not appear until June. Food and services (core and non-core) inflation rates have not reached an inflection point until August. The former is exogenous and is mainly affected by the natural environment, seasonality and the conflict between Russia and Ukraine, while the latter mainly depends on wage increases in the United States. In the short term, the U.S. labor market will remain in short supply, and wage increases will have certain rigidity, which will support service prices. The interpretation of the \"wage-price spiral\" is the key to future inflation trends.</p><p>As of the end of July 2022 (Figure 4, below), the prices of most goods and services have returned to before the epidemic. Compared with February 2020, the goods that still have negative price gaps include: information processing equipment (-6.68%), video and audio equipment (-4.2%), motorcycles (-3.4%); Services are: telecommunications (-6.3%) and insurance (-1.2%), etc. With the exception of a few commodities such as automobiles (new and used), commodity consumption has largely exceeded pre-pandemic levels. However, there are still a large number of service consumption with quantitative gaps, such as photography (-49.4%), tickets for entertainment activities (-32.1%), camping (-31.1%), etc. Although the year-on-year price increase of goods (overall and core) in PCE is still higher than that of services (overall and core), the former has already reached an inflection point in early 2022 (January and February 2022 respectively). By the end of 2022, the year-on-year increase in PCE commodity prices may drop to a level equal to the year-on-year increase in PCE service prices. Service consumption is still on the way to recovery, accounting for more than 65% of nominal PCE spending, which is the main driver of U.S. inflation in the near future and will be for some time to come.</p><p>The formation of lasting inflation in the post-epidemic era does not happen overnight, and there are often different driving factors at different stages. Due to the widespread and asymmetric impact of the epidemic, inflation also has the characteristics of universality and sequence. Compared to pre-pandemic (January 2020) (Figure 5, top left), the CPI goods price index declined more than the CPI services price index, with the largest declines of-2.5% and-0.2%, respectively. Among commodities, the price of non-durable goods fell more than that of durable goods, with the largest declines of-3.8% and-0.2% respectively. Among them, the largest decline in energy prices reached 18%. The bottom of the price index basically appeared in May 2020. From June 2020 to June 2021, the ranking of price rebound magnitude basically matched the ranking of decline magnitude-energy led the gains, goods outweighed services, and durable goods outweighed non-durable goods. By the beginning of 2021, the above-mentioned CPI prices have returned to pre-epidemic prices.</p><p>Therefore, the first wave of inflation that began in the second quarter of 2021 contains a significant base effect, superimposed on the unexpected elasticity of economic recovery, which does have strong temporary characteristics. But the Fed underestimated the persistence of supply chain constraints and the resilience of consumer demand, and also overestimated the elasticity of labor supply. By August 2022, in addition to the high points of energy, non-durable goods and commodity prices, food, durable goods, core goods, core services, services, core CPI and CPI are still hitting new highs. Since July, the decline in the prices of energy and non-durable commodities has driven down the overall price of commodities, and the increase in CPI has slowed down. However, the inflection point of the food and service price index and the year-on-year increase (Figure 16, upper right) has not yet appeared. Service prices are more sticky, or may become the \"last stick\" of the \"relay\" of inflation. It depends primarily on wages and labour market conditions<b>。 What is more optimistic is that the 6-month or 3-month month-on-month highs of CPI and its sub-items have already appeared. The relationship between supply and demand is the ultimate force in determining prices. Changes in supply and demand can also be read from prices. By September 2022, the outlook for inflation can be appropriately optimistic.</b></p><p>Figure 5: Inflation relay-prices for food, durable goods and services are still hitting new highs</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/514d5d2fdac5c001ca8732406f20f22c\" tg-width=\"984\" tg-height=\"951\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Data: CEIC, Orient Securities Wealth Research</p><p>In the process of inflation relay, money plays the role of \"threading the needle\". The extremely loose monetary and fiscal policies implemented by the United States during the epidemic have significantly increased residents' disposable income and savings rate, continued to support domestic demand, and are also an important reason why the inflation rate in the United States is higher than that in other Western economies (Jordà et al., 2022). Since the beginning of 2022, the contraction of fiscal expenditure has begun to drag down GDP growth. The normalization of the Fed's unconventional policies has begun to suppress demand in interest rate-sensitive sectors. However, on the one hand, the structure of inflation is still supply-led; On the other hand, the normalization process initiated by the Federal Reserve lags behind the macroeconomic situation, and the impact of rate hike on aggregate demand has a certain lag. The long-term real interest rate turning positive significantly lags behind the rate hike cycle. Therefore, the Fed can only \"fast-forward\" rate hike. In the forward-looking guidance, the Fed made it clear that it was only convinced that inflation was converging towards the 2% policy target after seeing \"several months of low inflation data.\" The author believes that in order to anchor medium-and long-term inflation expectations, the Federal Reserve will not easily release a \"dovish\" signal until the inflection point of service price and wage increase appears.</p><p></body></html></p>","source":"lsy1665498833642","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>U.S. inflation relay: looming'dawn '</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nU.S. inflation relay: looming'dawn '\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">陈达飞全球宏观...</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2022-10-13 21:15</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><html><head></head><body>The U.S. CPI rose 8.2% year-on-year in September, which was estimated to be 8.1%, and the previous value was 8.3%; The U.S. CPI rose 0.4% month-on-month in September, expected to be 0.2%, and the previous value was 0.1%. The core CPI was 6.6% year-on-year, a new high. The main contribution was services and core services, with year-on-year growth of 7.38% and 6.67% respectively, both new highs. If you look at the six-month month-on-month, core CPI, services and core services have also hit new highs.<b>Compared with August, the data in September was even \"worse\". Because the 6-month and 3-month month-on-month data of the CPI indicator in Table 1 in August both showed inflection points.</b></p><p>As of August 2022, the highs of energy, non-durable goods and commodity price indexes have appeared, and food, durable goods, core goods, core services, services, core CPI and CPI are still hitting new highs. Since July, the decline in the prices of energy and non-durable commodities has driven down the overall price of commodities, and the increase in CPI has slowed down. However, the inflection point of the food and service price index and the year-on-year increase has not yet appeared. The stickiness of service prices is strong, or it may become the \"last stick\" of inflation \"relay\". It depends primarily on wages and labour market conditions.<b>The outlook for inflation is still not optimistic, and it is far from time to bet on the right. The most noteworthy \"grey rhino\" is the global strike.</b></p><p>The yellow padding in the table indicates the maximum value.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3a34bf13bf4d9022dd058d282b1a9885\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"536\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/71f3534b1b81c47cc1da00f7395d87ae\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"602\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Compared with the Great Crisis, after the pandemic, the monetary policy of major Western economies has been more easing, more consistent, and more rapid. The balance sheets of the Federal Reserve, the Bank of England and the European Central Bank have all reached record highs. The effect of monetary policy depends on the characteristics of exogenous shocks and its cooperation with fiscal and revenue policies. The impact of the epidemic is mainly a negative impact on the supply side, and counter-cyclical policies have obvious characteristics of \"fiscal deficit monetization\", which widens the gap between supply and demand and increases inflationary pressure. The extremely loose monetary policy killed a \"perfect storm\" in the cradle, but the \"K-shaped\" recovery of the economy and the skyrocketing prices of commodities and risky assets put monetary policy in a dilemma. The experience of coexistence of QE and deflation in Japan at the beginning of this century and the United States after 2008 cannot be linearly extrapolated.</p><p>Whether the Federal Reserve sets policy rates or market participants decide asset allocation plans, it is crucial to clarify whether inflation is temporary or persistent. Generally speaking, the Fed will not change its policy stance due to temporary inflation, and the market will not reprice. The impact of the epidemic and policy response have brought great disturbances to prices, increasing the noise in inflation data and making it difficult to identify trend and cyclical fluctuations. In the second and third quarters of 2021, inflation reached a periodic inflection point, which enhanced the credibility of the \"temporary inflation hypothesis\" and caused the Federal Reserve to misjudge the persistence of inflation. The author pointed out in the commentary at that time that this inflection point was not solid. The formation of lasting inflation is not achieved overnight, but a \"relay\" of multiple temporary factors.</p><p><b>Fluctuations, Trends and Structure of Inflation</b></p><p>Commonly used indicators to measure the price increase of final goods and services in the United States include the Consumer Price Index (CPI), the Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) price index, and the GDP deflator. They are all obtained by weighted averaging, and the difference in values mainly stems from the differences in coverage, weights and calculation methods. The coverage is increasingly broad, from the CPI to the GDP deflator, which covers all consumers, businesses, and governments within the United States, as well as the prices of all final goods and services purchased abroad. CPI and PCE are more common. The former is compiled by the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) and the latter by the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA), but the underlying data is still from BLS. There are differences between the two in coverage and weight. The Fed is more focused on the latter.</p><p>Overall, the trend of PCE inflation rate and CPI inflation rate is basically the same, with the former having lower level value and volatility. This can be explained by the compilation and calculation methods of both (McCully et al., 2007). On the one hand, the PCE price index has broader coverage, as total personal spending accounts for nearly 70% of U.S. GDP. It measures price changes across all consumption items, not just those that consumers buy out of their own pockets; On the other hand, the difference of coverage directly leads to the difference of weight, and the adjustment of PCE weight is more frequent. For example, health care services are weighted at 22% and 9% in the PCE and CPI, respectively, because the former includes insurance premiums, deductibles, and co-payments paid by consumers out of pocket, and employer-provided insurance, Medicare, and Medicaid expenditures, while the latter includes only direct consumer expenditures. Another example is housing, whose weight in PCE is only 23%, while its weight in CPI is 42%. This means that the increase in the price of health services has a much greater impact on the PCE price index than on the CPI index, while housing has a greater impact on the CPI. PCE price index includes the substitution effect caused by the change of commodity price, which can more accurately depict the change of consumers' real living cost.</p><p>Monetary policy is an aggregate policy, which affects aggregate demand. It is unlikely that the Fed will change its policy stance because of the volatility of prices and the sharp increase in the price of a single industry (or commodity). Therefore, the Federal Reserve pays more attention to the core price index, which excludes food and energy with high volatility from the headline price index. The volatility of the core price index is significantly lower than the overall price index (Figure 12, left panel). However, the core price index will still be indirectly affected by the prices of goods or services in a single industry other than food and energy. How to better distinguish between price fluctuations and trends, structural rises and universal rises has become a topic of concern to monetary policy authorities.</p><p>To this end, the Cleveland Fed compiled the median inflation rate of CPI and PCE and the 16% trimmed-mean inflation rate. The Dallas Fed has also compiled a censored average inflation measure, excluding the lowest 24% increase and the highest 31% increase in the PCE price index (55% censored average inflation), and weighting the average among the remaining 45%. Compared with the core price index, the median and censored average inflation rates are less volatile, with the lowest being the Dallas Fed's censored average PCE inflation rate-the modified Taylor rule obtained by replacing the inflation rate in the Taylor rule can better fit the trend of policy interest rates (Koenig, 2019). In addition, the proportion of the number of goods with different price increases can also be calculated to examine the structure of inflation (Figure 1, right).</p><p>Figure 1: How to observe the trend and structure of inflation?</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f9b1d64591dab845dfb7a9dff41721e1\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"476\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Data: Federal Reserve, CEIC,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/600958\">Orient Securities</a>Wealth Research</p><p>At the beginning of the pandemic, both overall and core price increases declined to varying degrees. Overall price gains fell even more, with overall CPI and PCE inflation reaching lows of 0.41% and 0.1% in April and May, respectively-readings in January 2020 were 2.5% and 1.9%, respectively, mainly due to crude oil prices falling from 2020. The $65/barrel at the beginning of the year fell to $20 at the end of April, and then stabilized as OPEC and Russia reached an agreement to reduce production (about 10% of global production). Until the end of 2020, inflation was significantly lower than before the pandemic. However, starting from the first quarter of 2021, under the combined effect of multiple factors such as a low base, resumption of work and production supported by loose policies, and supply constraints (supply chain and labor) under the impact of the epidemic, U.S. prices began to accelerate upward.</p><p>As of the end of June 2021, the year-on-year increase of the price index ranked from high to low: CPI (5.4%), core CPI (4.5%), PCE (4%), core PCE (3.5%), 16% censored average CPI (2.9%), median CPI (2.2%), median PCE (2.2%), 55% censored average PCE (2.0%). The sharp rise in overall prices and the relative stability of trend indicators show that inflation does not yet have a broad basis. From a structural point of view, the number of subjects with price increases greater than 10%, 5% and 3% accounted for 11.6%, 32.6% and 45.0% respectively. During the two oil crises, the December 1973 values were 12.6%, 48.0%, and 74.8%, and the November 1978 values were 11.2%, 71.7%, and 92.1%, respectively. The proportion of subjects with an increase of more than 10% at the three time points is very close, but the proportion of subjects with price increases of more than 3% and 5% in June 2021 is significantly lower. The conclusions of the structural indicators are consistent with those of the trend indicators.</p><p>In his regular meeting statement in April 2021, Powell put forward the \"temporary inflation hypothesis\" for the first time, saying that the rise in inflation was caused by transitory factors. In the July 2021 \"Monetary Policy Report\", the Federal Reserve described the inflation situation in detail, explained the reasons, and responded to the market's two views on inflation: (1) Without changing monetary policy, as the economy returns to normal, inflationary pressures will subside on their own; (2) Inflationary pressures are persistent and will force the Fed to change its policy stance. Inflationary pressures at that time should have been within the Fed's expectations. In the column, the Federal Reserve mainly demonstrated the \"temporary inflation hypothesis\" from the perspective of inflation expectations. Because medium-and long-term inflation expectation indicators in multiple dimensions show that the 2% inflation target is still anchored. The FOMC did not abandon this hypothesis until its November 2021 regular meeting (during which there were five regular meetings) decided to launch Taper.</p><p>From the rearview mirror, at least in the second-third quarter of 2021, the \"temporary inflation hypothesis\" has a certain degree of credibility. However, after a short revision in the third quarter, the trend and structure of inflation have further deteriorated, causing the Federal Reserve to have to accelerate the pace of normalization. As of July 2022, although core PCE and core CPI have reached periodic tops in March 2022, the median CPI and the two censored average inflation indicators are still hitting new highs. The \"temporary inflation hypothesis\" became a stain on Powell.</p><p><b>Distinguishing the Temporary and Persistent Nature of Inflation</b></p><p>Only by clearly understanding which goods or services are rising in price and their reasons can we more accurately judge the future price trend. A common analysis idea is to open the \"black box\" of the price index, split and subdivide the contribution of goods or services to the overall price index changes, and focus on analyzing the reasons for the price changes of subjects with higher weights or greater contributions. If the reason for the price increase is seasonal or driven by exogenous shocks, inflation may be temporary. Since persistent inflation is often the \"relay\" of temporary inflation, potential price increases should not be ignored.</p><p>In the CPI basket (Figure 2), the weights of the first-level sub-items of goods and services are about 39% and 61%. Compared with the early 1990s, goods decreased by 5 percentage points and services increased by 5 percentage points. Among the eight industry classifications, the top three by weight are: housing (42.1%), transportation (15.7%) and food and beverage (14.8%), accounting for about three-quarters of the total. In the PCE basket, housing (22.6%) and health care (22.3%) are the two single items with the largest weight. The former is 19.5 percentage points lower than the CPI, and the latter is 13.5 percentage points higher than the CPI.</p><p>Figure 2: Weights of US PCE and CPI price indexes</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/57cc097a40674403ac5dbb55c206c806\" tg-width=\"849\" tg-height=\"794\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Data source: CEIC,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/03958\">Orient Securities</a>Wealth Research</p><p>We can first grasp the impact of COVID-19 pandemic on prices as a whole from the distribution of price increases (Figure 3). Take the 121 subdivided items in the core PCE basket as an example. From March 2020 to June 2021, the distribution of price increases has experienced a change from normal to left, and then returned to normal. The kurtosis at the end of the period is lower than that at the beginning of the period, and both the left and right sides show fat tail characteristics, indicating that there are subjects with large ups and downs, and with the passage of time, the fat tail characteristics on the right side are more obvious. There are certain differences in the distribution of goods and services, and the peak and left-deviation characteristics of services are more obvious. This is in line with the peculiarities of the pandemic shock. Because a large number of service industries require close contact, the impact is even more significant. Among commodities, there are also differences between durable goods and non-durable goods. The former has changed from negative growth (average-1.9%) that lasted 25 years before the epidemic to positive growth. In June 2021, the year-on-year growth rate reached 7.2%. This can be mutually verified with the expanding consumption of durable goods in the early stage of recovery-durable goods consumption has formed a substitute for service consumption.</p><p>Figure 3: Distribution of PCE prices during the pandemic (2020.01-2021.06)</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/00f7d0fd07a9b9d3c3d1fe567e02ec3d\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"650\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Data source: BEA, CEIC, Orient Securities Wealth Research</p><p>The first wave of gains in headline PCE inflation came primarily from commodities. The base effect is an important explanation, because commodities with large year-on-year price increases are similar to commodities that fell from March to May 2020, mainly in the energy and transportation industries (such as new and used cars). In May 2021, the core commodity PCE rose by 8.58% year-on-year, and the prices of the energy and transportation industries rose by 28% and 20% year-on-year, contributing about 1/3 of the current inflation-from March 2020 to the end of that year, Both the energy and transportation industry price indexes rose negatively. The highs of year-over-year growth in commodity PCE and core commodity PCE occurred in January and February 2022, respectively, with readings of 11.5 and 15.3%, respectively. By July 2022, it has dropped to 5.6% and 10.8% respectively. Comparatively speaking, the upward trend of service PCE is slow and dominates the trend of core PCE.</p><p>Logically, if the rise and fall of prices is mainly caused by the impact of the epidemic, it will also return to normal as the epidemic subsides and the resumption of work and production advances. Shapiro, an economist at the San Francisco Fed, distinguishes COVID-sensitive and non-COVID-insensitive subjects from two dimensions: quantity and price-if the price or quantity of a good or service changes significantly from February 2020 to April, it is COVID-19 sensitive, otherwise it is non-COVID-19 sensitive (Shapiro, 2020a; 2020b). As shown in Figure 4 (above), the subjects with a large decline in quantity basically belong to the service industry, among which entertainment, travel, hotels, casinos, catering and air transportation have decreased by 80% to 100%. Prices for air transport and hotels also dropped sharply, reaching 23% and 13% respectively. In terms of commodities, the items whose quantity dropped by 40%-60% included: automobiles, jewelry, watches, clothing and footwear. Among them, the price of used cars dropped by 13%, and the price of other items dropped by less than 10%.</p><p>Figure 4: The impact of COVID-19 pandemic on consumer behavior-based on the decomposition of PCE project volume and price</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/779ad3138b067220df0c84a7e96b87d5\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"526\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Data source: BEA, CEIC, Orient Securities Wealth Research</p><p>In the core PCE, COVID-sensitive subjects have a two-thirds weight and are the main source of price changes during the pandemic. Before the epidemic, COVID-19-sensitive subjects contributed about 0.8-1 percentage points to core PCE inflation, which plummeted to 0.3% in April 2020. Due to the base period effect, the contribution in the second quarter of 2021 increased sharply to 2.6%, equivalent to three-quarters of the PCE inflation in the same period. Among COVID-19-sensitive subjects, health services and used cars (cars and trucks) contributed the most to inflation, but for different reasons.</p><p>In the 5 years before the pandemic, the contribution of health services to core PCE inflation was approximately equal to 0.2 percentage points. The pandemic has expanded demand for health services, and superimposed pandemic-related changes in health insurance payment legislation (Shapiro, 2020a), increasing its contribution to 0.6 percentage points in the first quarter of 2021. However, the emergency relief measures are temporary and will act as a drag on price increases when lifted. Actually, PCE<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/HCSG\">Healthcare services</a>The price growth rate will enter a downward channel in March 2021.</p><p>Social distancing measures related to the pandemic have reduced demand for public transportation and boosted demand for used cars. In addition, due to the shortage of chips limiting supply, the widening gap between supply and demand of new cars has increased the contribution of used cars to inflation from-0.1% before the epidemic to 0.5% in early 2021. IHS manufacturer survey data shows that the chip shortage will ease after the third quarter of 2021 (but it may still be in short supply until early 2022).</p><p>In the second and third quarters of 2021, driven by the continued decline in commodity price increases, inflationary pressures in the United States have slowed down. Is temporary inflation in the post-epidemic era a prelude to sustained inflation in the medium and long term, and will inflation spread from the United States to other countries (or regions) in the future? These problems were unknown at the time. Among the world's major economies, only the core CPI inflation of the United States exceeds 4%, followed by the United Kingdom (3.1%), China's core CPI inflation and the harmonized inflation of the euro zone are still lower than 2%, and Japan is still struggling on the edge of deflation.</p><p>The Fed remains confident in emphasizing the temporary nature of inflation. In a commentary at that time, the author also agreed with the credibility of the \"temporary inflation hypothesis\", but emphasized that this \"temporary\" was based on historical attribution and partial analysis, and did not take into account the potential future price increase factors. In the second half of 2021, with the vaccination and the restart of the service industry, the service industry that once dragged down inflation turned into an inflationary<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/838275\">Driving force</a>, such as aviation and accommodation, etc. The virus continues to mutate, which will definitely prolong the recovery cycle of the service industry. The high point of core CPI inflation occurred in February 2022, mainly because core commodity inflation fell sharply after an inflection point (12.4%). However, affected by the conflict between Russia and Ukraine and the sanctions imposed by Western countries on Russia, energy prices will continue to rise in 2022, and the inflection point will not appear until June. Food and services (core and non-core) inflation rates have not reached an inflection point until August. The former is exogenous and is mainly affected by the natural environment, seasonality and the conflict between Russia and Ukraine, while the latter mainly depends on wage increases in the United States. In the short term, the U.S. labor market will remain in short supply, and wage increases will have certain rigidity, which will support service prices. The interpretation of the \"wage-price spiral\" is the key to future inflation trends.</p><p>As of the end of July 2022 (Figure 4, below), the prices of most goods and services have returned to before the epidemic. Compared with February 2020, the goods that still have negative price gaps include: information processing equipment (-6.68%), video and audio equipment (-4.2%), motorcycles (-3.4%); Services are: telecommunications (-6.3%) and insurance (-1.2%), etc. With the exception of a few commodities such as automobiles (new and used), commodity consumption has largely exceeded pre-pandemic levels. However, there are still a large number of service consumption with quantitative gaps, such as photography (-49.4%), tickets for entertainment activities (-32.1%), camping (-31.1%), etc. Although the year-on-year price increase of goods (overall and core) in PCE is still higher than that of services (overall and core), the former has already reached an inflection point in early 2022 (January and February 2022 respectively). By the end of 2022, the year-on-year increase in PCE commodity prices may drop to a level equal to the year-on-year increase in PCE service prices. Service consumption is still on the way to recovery, accounting for more than 65% of nominal PCE spending, which is the main driver of U.S. inflation in the near future and will be for some time to come.</p><p>The formation of lasting inflation in the post-epidemic era does not happen overnight, and there are often different driving factors at different stages. Due to the widespread and asymmetric impact of the epidemic, inflation also has the characteristics of universality and sequence. Compared to pre-pandemic (January 2020) (Figure 5, top left), the CPI goods price index declined more than the CPI services price index, with the largest declines of-2.5% and-0.2%, respectively. Among commodities, the price of non-durable goods fell more than that of durable goods, with the largest declines of-3.8% and-0.2% respectively. Among them, the largest decline in energy prices reached 18%. The bottom of the price index basically appeared in May 2020. From June 2020 to June 2021, the ranking of price rebound magnitude basically matched the ranking of decline magnitude-energy led the gains, goods outweighed services, and durable goods outweighed non-durable goods. By the beginning of 2021, the above-mentioned CPI prices have returned to pre-epidemic prices.</p><p>Therefore, the first wave of inflation that began in the second quarter of 2021 contains a significant base effect, superimposed on the unexpected elasticity of economic recovery, which does have strong temporary characteristics. But the Fed underestimated the persistence of supply chain constraints and the resilience of consumer demand, and also overestimated the elasticity of labor supply. By August 2022, in addition to the high points of energy, non-durable goods and commodity prices, food, durable goods, core goods, core services, services, core CPI and CPI are still hitting new highs. Since July, the decline in the prices of energy and non-durable commodities has driven down the overall price of commodities, and the increase in CPI has slowed down. However, the inflection point of the food and service price index and the year-on-year increase (Figure 16, upper right) has not yet appeared. Service prices are more sticky, or may become the \"last stick\" of the \"relay\" of inflation. It depends primarily on wages and labour market conditions<b>。 What is more optimistic is that the 6-month or 3-month month-on-month highs of CPI and its sub-items have already appeared. The relationship between supply and demand is the ultimate force in determining prices. Changes in supply and demand can also be read from prices. By September 2022, the outlook for inflation can be appropriately optimistic.</b></p><p>Figure 5: Inflation relay-prices for food, durable goods and services are still hitting new highs</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/514d5d2fdac5c001ca8732406f20f22c\" tg-width=\"984\" tg-height=\"951\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Data: CEIC, Orient Securities Wealth Research</p><p>In the process of inflation relay, money plays the role of \"threading the needle\". The extremely loose monetary and fiscal policies implemented by the United States during the epidemic have significantly increased residents' disposable income and savings rate, continued to support domestic demand, and are also an important reason why the inflation rate in the United States is higher than that in other Western economies (Jordà et al., 2022). Since the beginning of 2022, the contraction of fiscal expenditure has begun to drag down GDP growth. The normalization of the Fed's unconventional policies has begun to suppress demand in interest rate-sensitive sectors. However, on the one hand, the structure of inflation is still supply-led; On the other hand, the normalization process initiated by the Federal Reserve lags behind the macroeconomic situation, and the impact of rate hike on aggregate demand has a certain lag. The long-term real interest rate turning positive significantly lags behind the rate hike cycle. Therefore, the Fed can only \"fast-forward\" rate hike. In the forward-looking guidance, the Fed made it clear that it was only convinced that inflation was converging towards the 2% policy target after seeing \"several months of low inflation data.\" The author believes that in order to anchor medium-and long-term inflation expectations, the Federal Reserve will not easily release a \"dovish\" signal until the inflection point of service price and wage increase appears.</p><p></body></html></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> source：<a href=\"https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s/zKPfs2VVncdXqWBynZwJ9A\">陈达飞全球宏观...</a></p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d52e6e6d04d9823325064d60aa26462e","relate_stocks":{".SPX":"S&P 500 Index",".DJI":"道琼斯",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite"},"source_url":"https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s/zKPfs2VVncdXqWBynZwJ9A","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1149561184","content_text":"美国9月CPI同比上涨8.2%，预估为8.1%，前值为8.3%；美国9月CPI环比上涨0.4%，预估为0.2%，前值为0.1%。核心CPI同比6.6%，为新高，主要贡献为服务和核心服务，同比增长分别为7.38%和6.67%，均为新高。如果看6个月环比，核心CPI、服务与核心服务也创了新高。相比8而言，9月数据更“差”。因为8月表1中CPI指标的6个月和3个月环比数据均出现了拐点。截止到2022年8月，能源、非耐用商品和商品价格指数的高点已经出现，食品、耐用商品、核心商品、核心服务、服务、核心CPI和CPI还在创新高。7月以来，能源和非耐用商品价格的下降带动商品整体价格下行，CPI涨势趋缓。但食品和服务业价格指数及同比涨幅的拐点都还没有未出现。服务价格的粘性较强，或成为通胀“接力”的“最后一棒”。它主要取决于工资和劳动力市场条件。通胀前景仍不乐观，还远没有到押注右侧的时候。最值得关注的“灰犀牛”是全球性大罢工。表中黄色填充表示最大值。相比大危机，大流行之后，西方主要经济体的货币政策宽松力度更大，步调更一致，行动更迅速。美联储、英格兰银行和欧洲央行的资产负债表规模 均达到了历史新高。货币政策效应取决于外生冲击的特征及与财政、收入政策的配合。疫情冲击以供给侧负冲击为主，逆周期政策又有着明显的“财政赤字货币化”特征，扩大了供求缺口，增强了通胀压力。极度宽松的货币政策将一场“完美风暴”扼杀在了摇篮里，但经济的“K型” 复苏，叠加大宗商品与风险资产价格的暴涨使货币政策进退两难。本世纪初的日本和2008年之后的美国的QE与通缩并存的经验不能线性外推。无论是美联储制定政策利率，还是市场参与者决定资产配置方案，厘清通胀是临时的还是持续的都至关重要。一般而言，美联储不会因为临时通胀而改变政策立场，市场也不会重新定价。疫情冲击及政策响应给物价带来了极大的扰动，增加了通胀数据中的噪声和识别趋势性和周期性波动的难度。2021年2-3季度，通胀出现了阶段性拐点，增强了“临时通胀假说”的可信度，使美联储误判了通胀的持久性。笔者在当时的评论文章中指出，这一拐点并不牢固 。持久通胀的形成不是一蹴而就的，而是多重临时性因素的“接力”。通胀的波动、趋势与结构美国常用的度量最终商品和服务价格涨幅的指标包括居民消费价格指数（Consumer Price Index，CPI）、个人消费支出（Personal Consumption Expenditures，PCE）价格指数和国内生产总值平减指数 。它们都是通过加权平均而得到的，数值的区别主要源于覆盖面、权重和计算方法的不同。从CPI到GDP平减指数，覆盖面越来越广，后者覆盖了美国国内的所有消费者、企业和政府，以及国外购买的所有最终商品和服务的价格 。CPI和PCE更常见。前者由美国劳工统计局（BLS）编制，后者由美国经济分析局（BEA）编制，但底层数据还是来自BLS。两者在覆盖面和权重上都有区别。美联储更关注后者。整体而言，PCE通胀率与CPI通胀率走势基本一致，前者的水平值和波动性都更低。这可以从两者的编制与计算方法上得到解释（McCully et al.,2007）。一方面，PCE价格指数的覆盖面更广，因为个人支出总额占美国GDP的近70%。它衡量的是所有消费项目的价格变化，而不仅仅是消费者自掏腰包购买的项目；另一方面，覆盖面的不同直接导致了权重的差异，并且，PCE权重的调整更加频繁。例如，保健服务在PCE和CPI中的权重为分别为22%和9%，因为前者包含了消费者自掏腰包支付的保险费、免赔额和共同支付额，以及雇主提供的保险、医疗保险和医疗补助支出，后者只包含了消费者的直接开支。再比如住房，其在PCE中的权重仅为23%，而在CPI中的权重为42%。这意味着，保健服务价格的上涨对PCE价格指数的影响远大于对CPI指数，而住房对CPI的影响更大。PCE价格指数包含了商品价格变化引起的替代效应，能够更准确的刻画消费者真实生活成本的变化。货币政策属于总量政策，影响的是总需求。美联储不太会因为物价的波动性和单一行业（或商品）价格的大幅上涨而改变政策立场。所以，美联储更关注核心价格指数，它从整体（headline）价格指数中剔除了波动性较高的食品和能源。核心价格指数的波动性显著低于整体价格指数（图12，左图）。但是，核心价格指数仍然会受到食品和能源以外的单一行业商品或服务价格的间接影响。如何更好地区分价格的波动和趋势、结构性上涨和普遍性上涨就成为货币政策当局关心的话题。为此，克利夫兰联储编制了CPI和PCE的中位数（median）通胀率和16%截尾平均（trimmed-mean）通胀率。达拉斯联储也编制了一个截尾平均通胀指标，排除了PCE价格指数中涨幅最低的24%和最高的31%的科目（55%截尾平均通胀），在剩余的45%的科目中进行加权平均。相较于核心价格指数而言，中位数和截尾平均通胀率的波动性更低，其中，最低的为达拉斯联储的截尾平均PCE通胀率——用其代替泰勒规则中的通胀率而得到的修正的泰勒规则能够更好的拟合政策利率的走势（Koenig，2019）。此外，还可以计算不同价格涨幅的商品数量的占比，以考察通胀的结构（图1，右图）。图1：如何观察通胀的趋势和结构？数据：美联储，CEIC，东方证券财富研究大流行冲击初期，整体与核心价格涨幅均出现了不同程度的下行。整体价格涨幅下降更大，整体CPI和PCE通胀分别在4月和5月达到0.41%和0.1%的低位——2020年1月的读数分别为2.5%和1.9%，主要原因是原油价格从2020年初的65美元/桶降到了4月底的20美元，后因OPEC与俄罗斯达成减产协议（约全球产量的10%）而企稳。直到2020年底，通胀率都显著低于疫情前。但从2021年1季度开始，在低基数、宽松政策支持下的复工复产和疫情冲击下的供给约束（供应链和劳动）等多重因素共同作用下，美国物价开始加速上行。截止到2021年6月底，价格指数的同比涨幅由高到低排名依次为：CPI（5.4%）、核心CPI（4.5%）、PCE（4%）、核心PCE（3.5%）、16%截尾平均CPI（2.9%）、CPI中值（2.2%）、PCE中值（2.2%）、55%截尾平均PCE（2.0%）。整体物价的大幅上行和趋势指标的相对稳定说明通通胀尚不具备广泛的基础。从结构上看，价格涨幅大于10%、5%和3%的科目数占比分别为11.6%、32.6%和45.0%。在两次石油危机期间，1973年12月的数值分别为12.6%、48.0%和74.8%，1978年11月的数值分别为11.2%、71.7%和92.1%。三个时点涨幅大于10%的科目数占比非常接近，但2021年6月涨价大于3%和5%的科目占比明显偏低。结构指标与趋势指标的结论相一致。在2021年4月的例会声明中，鲍威尔首次提出“临时通胀假说”，称通胀的攀升是由临时性因素（transitory factors）引起的。在2021年7月的《货币政策报告》中 ，美联储详细描述了通胀的形势，解释了原因，回应了市场对于通胀的两种看法：（1）在不改变货币政策的情况下，随着经济回归常态，通胀压力会自行消退；（2）通胀压力是持久的，将迫使美联储不得不转变政策立场。当时的通胀压力应该是美联储预期内的。在专栏中，美联储主要从通胀预期的角度论证了“临时通胀假说” 。因为多个维度的中长期通胀预期指标均显示，2%的通胀目标仍被锚定。FOMC直到2021年11月例会（期间共有5次例会）决定启动Taper时才放弃这一假说。从后视镜中来看，至少在2021年2-3季度，“临时通胀假说”是有一定可信度的，只是经过3季度的短暂修正后，通胀的趋势和结构进一步恶化，致使美联储不得不加快正常化的步伐。截止到2022年7月，虽然核心PCE和核心CPI在2022年3月出现了阶段性顶部，但CPI中值和两个截尾平均通胀指标还在创新高。“临时通胀假说”成了鲍威尔的一个污点。通胀的临时性与持久性之辨只有清楚地了解哪些商品或服务在涨价及其原因之后，才能更准确的判断未来的价格走势。一个常见的分析思路是打开价格指数的“黑箱”，拆分细分商品或服务在总体价格指数变化中贡献，重点分析权重较高的或贡献较大的科目的价格变化的原因。如果涨价的原因是季节性的，或者是外生冲击驱动的，通胀就可能是临时的。由于持久通胀往往是临时通胀的“接力”，也不应忽视潜在的涨价因素。在CPI的篮子中（图2），商品与服务一级分项的权重约为39%和61% ，相比上世纪90年代初而言，商品下降了5个百分点，服务增加了5个百分点。在8个行业分类中，权重排名前三的分别为：住房（42.1%）、交通（15.7%）和食品饮料（14.8%），合计占比约四分之三。在PCE篮子当中，住房（22.6%）和医疗保健（22.3%）是权重最大的两个单一项目，前者较CPI低19.5个百分点，后者较CPI高13.5个百分点。图2：美国PCE和CPI价格指数的权重数据来源：CEIC,东方证券财富研究可先从物价涨幅的分布中整体把握新冠疫情对物价的影响（图3）。以核心PCE篮子中的121个细分项目为例。从2020年3月到2021年6月，物价涨幅的分布经历了从正态到左偏，再回归到正态的变迁。期末的峰度低于期初，左右两侧都呈现出肥尾特征，表明存在涨跌幅都较大的科目，而且随着时间的推移，右侧的肥尾特征更明显。商品和服务项目的分布存在一定的差异，服务的尖峰和左偏特征更加明显。这符合大流行冲击的特殊性。因为大量服务业要求密切接触，受到的冲击也更显著。在商品中，耐用品和非耐用品也有差异，前者从疫情前持续25年的负增长（平均-1.9%）转变为正增长，2021年6月同比增速达到了7.2%。这与复苏早期不断扩张的耐用品消费可相互验证——耐用品消费对服务消费形成了替代。图3：大流行期间PCE物价的分布（2020.01-2021.06）数据来源：BEA，CEIC，东方证券财富研究整体PCE通胀的第一波上涨主要源自商品。基数效应是一个重要解释，因为物价同比涨幅较大的商品与2020年3-5月下跌的商品类似，主要是能源和交通运输业（比如新车和二手车）。2021年5月，核心商品PCE同比涨幅达到了8.58%，能源和交通运输业物价同比上涨了28%和20%，约贡献了当期通胀的1/3——从2020年3月到当年年底，能源和交通运输业物价指数的涨幅均为负。商品PCE和核心商品PCE同比增长的高点分别出现在2022年1月和2月，读数分别为11.5和15.3%。至2022年7月，已经分别降到了5.6%和10.8%。比较而言，服务业PCE的上行趋势较缓，且主导了核心PCE的走势。逻辑上，如果物价的涨跌主要是由疫情冲击导致的，那也将随着疫情的消退和复工复产的推进而回归常态。旧金山联储经济学家夏皮罗（Shapiro）从数量与价格两个维度区分了新冠敏感型（COVID-sensitive）和非新冠敏感型（COVID-insensitive）科目——如果某商品或服务的价格或数量从2020年2月到4月发生了显著的变化，则是新冠敏感型的，反之则是非新冠敏感的（Shapiro，2020a；2020b）。如图4（上图）所示，数量降幅较大的科目基本上属于服务业，其中，降幅80%到100%之间的有娱乐、旅行、酒店、赌场、餐饮和航空运输等。航空运输和酒店的价格也大幅下降，分别达到了23%和13%。商品方面，数量降幅分布在40%-60%之间的项目包括：汽车、珠宝、手表、服装和鞋类，其中，二手车价格下降了13%，其它项目价格降幅均在10%以内。图4：新冠疫情对消费行为的影响——基于对PCE项目量价的分解数据来源：BEA，CEIC，东方证券财富研究在核心PCE中，新冠敏感型科目的权重达到了三分之二，是大流行期间价格变化的主要来源。疫情前，新冠敏感型科目在核心PCE通胀中贡献了约0.8-1个百分点，2020年4月骤降到0.3%。由于基期效应，2021年2季度的贡献陡增至2.6%，相当于同期PCE通胀中的四分之三。在新冠敏感型科目中，保健服务与二手车（汽车与卡车）对通胀的贡献最大，但原因不尽相同。在疫情之前的5年中，保健服务在核心PCE通胀中的贡献约等于0.2个百分点。疫情扩张了保健服务需求，叠加与流行病相关的医疗保险支付立法变化（Shapiro，2020a），使其贡献在2021年1季度增加到了0.6个百分点。然而，紧急救济措施是暂时的，取消后将成为价格上涨的拖累因素。实际上，PCE医疗保健服务的价格增速在2021年3月就进入下降通道。与疫情相关的社交隔离措施降低了公共交通需求，提升了二手车需求。又由于芯片的短缺限制了供给，新车供求缺口的扩大使二手车对通胀的贡献从疫情之前的-0.1%提高到了2021年初的0.5%。IHS生产商调研数据显示，芯片短缺状况将在2021年3季度之后有所缓解 （但直到2022年初或仍将处于供不应求的状态）。2021年2-3季度，在商品价格涨幅持续回落的带动下，美国通胀压力有所放缓。后疫情时代的临时通胀是否是中长期持续通胀的前奏，未来通胀是否还会从美国扩散到其他国家（或地区）？这些问题在当时都是未知的。在世界主要经济体中，只有美国核心CPI通胀超过了4%，排在第二的是英国（3.1%），中国核心CPI通胀和欧元区调和通胀仍低于2%，日本还挣扎在通货紧缩的边缘。美联储仍信心满满地强调通胀的临时性。在当时的一篇评论文章中，笔者也认同“临时通胀假说”的可信性，但强调这一“临时性”是建立在历史归因和局部分析基础之上的，并未考虑到未来潜在的涨价因素 。2021年下半年，随着疫苗的接种和服务业的重启，曾经拖累通胀的服务业转而成为通胀的驱动力，如航空和住宿等。病毒还在持续变异，必将拉长服务业复苏的周期。核心CPI通胀的高点出现在2022年2月，主要是因为核心商品通胀出现拐点（12.4%）后大幅下行。然而，受俄乌冲突和西方国家对俄制裁的影响，能源价格在2022年继续上涨，拐点直到6月才出现。食品和服务业（核心与非核心）通胀率直到8月还未出现拐点。前者是外生的，主要受自然环境、季节性和俄乌冲突的影响，后者则主要取决于美国国内的工资涨幅。短期内，美国劳动力市场仍将维持供不应求的状况，工资上涨具有一定的刚性，会对服务价格形成支撑。“工资-物价螺旋”的演绎是未来通胀走势的关键 。截止到2022年7月底（图4，下图），大多数商品和服务科目的价格均已经回到疫情之前，与2020年2月相比还存在负价格缺口的商品有：信息处理设备（-6.68%）、视频和音频设备（-4.2%）、摩托车（-3.4%）；服务有：电信（-6.3%）和保险（-1.2%）等。除汽车（新车和二手车 ）等少数商品外，商品消费量已基本超过了疫情之前的水平。但仍有大量服务消费存在数量缺口，如摄影（-49.4%）、娱乐活动门票（-32.1%）、露营（-31.1%）等。虽然PCE当中的商品（整体与核心）价格同比涨幅仍高于服务（整体与核心），但前者已经在2022年初出现了拐点（分别为2022年1月和2月）。至2022年底，PCE商品价格同比涨幅或下降至与PCE服务价格同比涨幅相等的水平。服务消费仍在恢复的路上，其在名义PCE支出中的比重超过65% ，是近期、也将是未来一段时间内美国通胀的主要驱动因素。后疫情时代持久通胀的形成并不是一蹴而就，在不同阶段往往有不同的驱动因素。由于疫情冲击的广泛性和非对称性，通胀也存在普遍性和前后相继的特征。与疫情前（2020年1月）相比（图5，左上），CPI商品比CPI服务价格指数跌幅更大，最大跌幅分别为-2.5%和-0.2%。在商品中，非耐用品价格较耐用品价格回落幅度更大，最大跌幅分别为-3.8%和-0.2%，其中，能源价格最大跌幅达到了18%。物价指数的谷底基本出现在2020年5月。从2020年6月到2021年6月，价格反弹幅度的排名与下跌幅度排名基本匹配——能源领涨，商品大于服务，耐用品大于非耐用品。至2021年初，上述CPI大类价格均已回到疫情前。所以，始于2021年2季度的第一波通胀包含了显著的基数效应，叠加超预期的经济复苏弹性，确实具有较强的临时性特征。但美联储低估了供应链约束的持久性和消费需求的韧性，也高估了劳动供给的弹性。到2022年8月，除能源、非耐用商品和商品价格的高点已经出现，食品、耐用商品、核心商品、核心服务、服务、核心CPI和CPI还在创新高。7月以来，能源和非耐用商品价格的下降带动商品整体价格下行，CPI涨势趋缓。但食品和服务业价格指数及同比涨幅（图16，右上）的拐点都还没有未出现。服务价格的粘性更强，或成为通胀“接力”的“最后一棒”。它主要取决于工资和劳动力市场条件。较为乐观的是，CPI及其分项的6个月或3个月环比的高点均已经出现。供求关系是决定价格的终极力量。从价格中也能读到供求关系的变化。时至2022年9月，对通胀的前景可以适当乐观一些了。图5：通胀接力——食品、耐用商品和服务价格还在创新高数据：CEIC，东方证券财富研究在通胀接力的过程中，货币发挥着“穿针引线”的作用。美国在疫情期间实施的极度宽松的货币与财政政策大幅提高了居民可支配收入和储蓄率，持续支撑着内需，也是美国较其它西方经济体通胀率更高的重要原因（Jordà et al., 2022）。2022年初来，财政支出的收缩开始对GDP增速形成拖累。美联储非常规政策的正常化已经开始对利率敏感性部门的需求形成压制。但是，一方面，通胀的结构仍是供给主导 ；另一方面，本次美联储启动正常化的进程落后于宏观经济形势，加息对总需求的影响又存在一定的滞后性，长端实际利率转正明显滞后于加息周期。所以，美联储只能“快进式”加息。在前瞻指引中，美联储明确只有看到“数个月低通胀数据” 才确信通胀正在向2%的政策目标收敛。笔者认为，为了锚定中长期通胀预期，在服务价格和工资上涨的拐点出现之前，美联储都不会轻易释放“鸽派”信号。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"ESmain":0.9,".IXIC":0.9,".DJI":0.9,".SPX":0.9,"NQmain":0.9,"YMmain":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":851,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9917630434,"gmtCreate":1665495773628,"gmtModify":1676537616228,"author":{"id":"3578029508189134","authorId":"3578029508189134","name":"SOON141319","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/86730deac042a9c977855eae3f27fe86","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3578029508189134","idStr":"3578029508189134"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"💛","listText":"💛","text":"💛","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9917630434","repostId":"666167007","repostType":1,"repost":{"id":666167007,"gmtCreate":1665487860000,"gmtModify":1676537615632,"author":{"id":"3525994231964285","authorId":"3525994231964285","name":"读懂财经","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2302da3d2e7be3c9900959ee0a880626","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3525994231964285","idStr":"3525994231964285"},"themes":[],"title":"日本家電是如何輸掉全球化戰爭的？","htmlText":"©讀懂財經·消費組原創/出品作者 | 楊揚編輯 | 夏益軍櫻花，是日本的國花。這是一種先開花後長葉的喬木植物，花開的時間比較短，因此有“櫻花七日”的說法。但這種短暫而燦爛的開花方式，卻讓日本人深深折服，因此也被尊爲日本精神。在某種程度上，日本家電的故事猶如櫻花一般，短暫而美麗。曾經，日本企業是全球家電領域的絕對王者。在1992年全球十家最大的家電品牌裏，日本佔據了6席。索尼、松下、東芝等家電品牌甚至把美國本土品牌衝的七零八落。日本家電輝煌背後，是由數代人的心血澆築的。在通往世界家電山頂的路上，日本企業走了一百年：索尼成立在1946年、松下成立於1918年、東芝成立的時間最早在1875年。但從2010年開始，日本家電企業急速直下。比如冰箱產業，2019年其海外供貨量較2010年下降四分之三。日立家電營收額不到海爾的十分之一。這就是日本家電企業的宿命：花一百年的時間成爲日本製造業的驕傲，卻在十年時間裏極速墜落。回顧近十年全球家電行業的變化，我們很難日本家電品牌的沒落歸結到單一原因。在這個典型的日本“悲劇”裏，不斷縮小的技術差距、錯失全球化分工的產業趨勢以及長達數十年的經濟危機，都有着舉重輕重的戲碼。/ 01 /百年登頂，十年隕落日本家電的崛起，要追蹤到另一支柱產業的重挫。二十世紀七十年代以前，日本製造業主要以中低端的重化工業爲主。石油危機直接導致日本工業製成品的成本價飆升，1974年，日本GDP出現戰後首次下滑，增長率從上年的35.86%暴跌至11%。日本內閣意識到，必須改變工業結構，於是出臺《日本經濟70年代展望》，提出把以半導體爲核心的技術密集型產業作爲主導產業發展。而在此之前，日本本身也具有一定的產業基礎，松下、日立等日本家電品牌在1910年前後就已成立。產業基礎加上政策刺激，日本家電品牌很快形成了技術優勢。於是，從70年代之後，大多數日本公司的發展路徑是：他們先突破了某","listText":"©讀懂財經·消費組原創/出品作者 | 楊揚編輯 | 夏益軍櫻花，是日本的國花。這是一種先開花後長葉的喬木植物，花開的時間比較短，因此有“櫻花七日”的說法。但這種短暫而燦爛的開花方式，卻讓日本人深深折服，因此也被尊爲日本精神。在某種程度上，日本家電的故事猶如櫻花一般，短暫而美麗。曾經，日本企業是全球家電領域的絕對王者。在1992年全球十家最大的家電品牌裏，日本佔據了6席。索尼、松下、東芝等家電品牌甚至把美國本土品牌衝的七零八落。日本家電輝煌背後，是由數代人的心血澆築的。在通往世界家電山頂的路上，日本企業走了一百年：索尼成立在1946年、松下成立於1918年、東芝成立的時間最早在1875年。但從2010年開始，日本家電企業急速直下。比如冰箱產業，2019年其海外供貨量較2010年下降四分之三。日立家電營收額不到海爾的十分之一。這就是日本家電企業的宿命：花一百年的時間成爲日本製造業的驕傲，卻在十年時間裏極速墜落。回顧近十年全球家電行業的變化，我們很難日本家電品牌的沒落歸結到單一原因。在這個典型的日本“悲劇”裏，不斷縮小的技術差距、錯失全球化分工的產業趨勢以及長達數十年的經濟危機，都有着舉重輕重的戲碼。/ 01 /百年登頂，十年隕落日本家電的崛起，要追蹤到另一支柱產業的重挫。二十世紀七十年代以前，日本製造業主要以中低端的重化工業爲主。石油危機直接導致日本工業製成品的成本價飆升，1974年，日本GDP出現戰後首次下滑，增長率從上年的35.86%暴跌至11%。日本內閣意識到，必須改變工業結構，於是出臺《日本經濟70年代展望》，提出把以半導體爲核心的技術密集型產業作爲主導產業發展。而在此之前，日本本身也具有一定的產業基礎，松下、日立等日本家電品牌在1910年前後就已成立。產業基礎加上政策刺激，日本家電品牌很快形成了技術優勢。於是，從70年代之後，大多數日本公司的發展路徑是：他們先突破了某","text":"©讀懂財經·消費組原創/出品作者 | 楊揚編輯 | 夏益軍櫻花，是日本的國花。這是一種先開花後長葉的喬木植物，花開的時間比較短，因此有“櫻花七日”的說法。但這種短暫而燦爛的開花方式，卻讓日本人深深折服，因此也被尊爲日本精神。在某種程度上，日本家電的故事猶如櫻花一般，短暫而美麗。曾經，日本企業是全球家電領域的絕對王者。在1992年全球十家最大的家電品牌裏，日本佔據了6席。索尼、松下、東芝等家電品牌甚至把美國本土品牌衝的七零八落。日本家電輝煌背後，是由數代人的心血澆築的。在通往世界家電山頂的路上，日本企業走了一百年：索尼成立在1946年、松下成立於1918年、東芝成立的時間最早在1875年。但從2010年開始，日本家電企業急速直下。比如冰箱產業，2019年其海外供貨量較2010年下降四分之三。日立家電營收額不到海爾的十分之一。這就是日本家電企業的宿命：花一百年的時間成爲日本製造業的驕傲，卻在十年時間裏極速墜落。回顧近十年全球家電行業的變化，我們很難日本家電品牌的沒落歸結到單一原因。在這個典型的日本“悲劇”裏，不斷縮小的技術差距、錯失全球化分工的產業趨勢以及長達數十年的經濟危機，都有着舉重輕重的戲碼。/ 01 /百年登頂，十年隕落日本家電的崛起，要追蹤到另一支柱產業的重挫。二十世紀七十年代以前，日本製造業主要以中低端的重化工業爲主。石油危機直接導致日本工業製成品的成本價飆升，1974年，日本GDP出現戰後首次下滑，增長率從上年的35.86%暴跌至11%。日本內閣意識到，必須改變工業結構，於是出臺《日本經濟70年代展望》，提出把以半導體爲核心的技術密集型產業作爲主導產業發展。而在此之前，日本本身也具有一定的產業基礎，松下、日立等日本家電品牌在1910年前後就已成立。產業基礎加上政策刺激，日本家電品牌很快形成了技術優勢。於是，從70年代之後，大多數日本公司的發展路徑是：他們先突破了某","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/81740ab4ffd1473d83cd3210e6d74cf2","width":"-1","height":"-1"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":2,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/666167007","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":0,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":807,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0}],"lives":[]}