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211013能量飞车

211013能量飞车

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211013能量飞车

2022-12-28

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211013能量飞车

2022-12-13

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After a 33% surge, can Hong Kong stocks still chase?

211013能量飞车

2022-12-13

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211013能量飞车

2022-12-12

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211013能量飞车

2022-12-07

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Revisit the classic of Livermore, the king of speculation: revealing the secrets of trading!

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2022-12-02

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Large option orders | Institutions manipulate ultra-short-term rights, and AMC cinema changes release a short squeeze signal?

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2022-11-23

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211013能量飞车

2022-11-01

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211013能量飞车

2022-08-20

$西方石油(OXY)$🚀🚀🚀🎁🎁🎁💤💰💰💰

211013能量飞车

2022-08-14

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Last night and this morning | The S&P Nasdaq has risen for 4 consecutive weeks! The latest 13F position exposure

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2022-08-08

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211013能量飞车

2022-08-02

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@时代之:哎！又回去了

211013能量飞车

2022-07-21

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Really tossed it? Munger doesn't eat BYD's "fish tail"

211013能量飞车

2022-07-20

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211013能量飞车

2022-07-17

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Moody's Economist: The U.S. Could Be In Recession By Convincing Itself

211013能量飞车

2022-07-11

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US stocks face major test as Putin warns of catastrophic consequences and foreign capital poures into Chinese assets

211013能量飞车

2022-07-11

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Inflation is hard to bear! Nearly 4.5 million UK households are in'serious financial distress', survey shows

211013能量飞车

2022-07-06

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Wenzhou's richest man fought Wall Street, JPMorgan Chase lost 800 million

211013能量飞车

2022-06-20

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211013能量飞车

2022-06-17

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Pre-market | "Four Witches Day" is here! U.S. stocks face another test tonight

Go to Tiger App to see more news

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23:24","market":"hk","language":"zh","title":"After a 33% surge, can Hong Kong stocks still chase?","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1129031119","media":"懒猫的丰收日","summary":"大涨后，港股的估值修复行情其实已经差不多完成了。","content":"<p><html><head></head><body>Down, down, down,</p><p>Monday, December 12th,<b>The Hang Seng Technology Index fell 4% and the Hang Seng Index fell 2.2%.</b></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/867f9086963978402f2981d477aa9222\" tg-width=\"840\" tg-height=\"470\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Even A-shares also fell, and the three major indexes all closed down by nearly 1%.</p><p>However, looking at the comments, everyone doesn't seem to be worried about the sudden drop:<b>If you dare to fall, I will dare to make up for it. If it doesn't fall, then that's it!</b></p><p>Also, under the resonance of multiple positive factors, Hong Kong stocks collectively soared in November.<b>The Hang Seng Index rose 26.62%, the biggest monthly increase for the Hang Seng Index since 2000.</b></p><p>Even since its establishment in 1964, this increase can rank 8th!</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/16900e6b7d72b1a105d706f0af700b5c\" tg-width=\"302\" tg-height=\"511\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>If the increase in December is also included, the increase of the Hang Seng Index can reach an astonishing 32.52%, leading the major global markets.</p><p>A cloud-piercing arrow, thousands of troops come to meet each other. Under such a skyrocketing rise, naturally everyone should no longer despair of Hong Kong stocks.</p><p>However, another problem followed after the surge:<b>Can Hong Kong stocks still be chased?</b></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/14c677a3b3daf779fdd53f4c10fbb34c\" tg-width=\"568\" tg-height=\"557\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><b>01 Why did it go up?</b></p><p>First, let's talk about why Hong Kong stocks rose, mainly for these four reasons:</p><p><b>(1) The pace of the Fed's rate hike is slowing down</b></p><p>Hong Kong stocks are an offshore market, and the ups and downs are mainly affected by the liquidity of the US dollar.</p><p>Most of the time, when the US dollar falls, Hong Kong stocks rise; When the U.S. dollar rises, Hong Kong stocks fall.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/927fd6994f3915fad342737337dfa553\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"573\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>For example, in the sharp drop in the past few months, the Hong Kong stock market fell as low as 14,600 points, which was 20% lower than the low point in March (18,200). A direct reason is that the Federal Reserve continues to conduct violent rate hike, which has brought global stock markets, including Hong Kong stocks, down.</p><p>Therefore, since November, as expectations for a slowdown in the pace of the Federal Reserve's rate hike have become stronger and stronger, the US Dollar Index has been falling all the way, from 113 to 105, and Hong Kong stocks have also responded, rising from 14,500 points to 20,000 points.</p><p><b>(2) Domestic fundamentals have improved and foreign capital has returned</b></p><p>There is no need to talk about this. After the liberalization, the biggest expectation of the market is \"economic recovery\".</p><p>Driven by this expectation, real estate has risen and consumption has risen.<b>Even foreign capital has begun to bargain-hunting Chinese assets again.</b></p><p>Since November, JPMorgan Chase & Co. has increased its holdings of 18.9 billion Hong Kong stocks, and UBS has increased its holdings of 14.4 billion Hong Kong stocks.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/038d73022fe4af00ea86c6db44a50ef3\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"164\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Compare the data from February 2021 to October this year,</p><p>JPMorgan Chase has reduced its holdings of 37.8 billion Hong Kong stocks, and UBS has reduced its holdings of 27.4 billion Hong Kong stocks...</p><p>It took more than a month to take back half of the chips sold in the past two years.</p><p>Suddenly, like a spring breeze overnight, the foreign capital that once voted with its feet came back ~</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3c8eaad9e0909426242ddc292eefc9b2\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"164\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><b>(3) The inflection point of Internet performance</b></p><p>This is coming to the third quarterly report.<b>After reducing costs and increasing efficiency, the performance of Internet companies has improved significantly.</b></p><p>In the third quarter, Tencent's performance growth rate turned positive, and the performance of Pinduoduo, Kuaishou, and Meituan also exceeded market expectations, so that the agency's summary of the third quarterly report of the Internet was that \"the performance of most companies exceeded expectations, and the turning point of recovery gradually became clear.\"</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b850f0e8794fb2bf97a8fd7e821fcd1a\" tg-width=\"731\" tg-height=\"146\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><b>(4) It fell a lot</b></p><p>This is also a very important reason,</p><p>A few days ago, Lazy Cat also wrote that the biggest decline of the Hang Seng Technology Index in this wave was 75%. Although it has rebounded by 50% now, it still needs to rise by another 164% to return to the highest point.</p><p>The same goes for the Hang Seng Index,</p><p>Before the decline, the Hang Seng Index fell from a high of 31183, and the lowest fell to 14597, a full drop of 53%.</p><p>Although it has rebounded to 19464 now, it is still 60% away from the highest point.</p><p><b>02 Where are you now?</b></p><p><b>(1) Evaluation</b></p><p>Since US dollar liquidity is an important factor in determining the rise and fall of Hong Kong stocks, let's take a look<b>The \"risk premium rate\" of the Hang Seng Index relative to U.S. bonds.</b></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/13d675bd7cadf8708496b0fde21104f8\" tg-width=\"971\" tg-height=\"544\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><b>1) 8.56% is an opportunity point. After several big bottoms, the risk premium rate of the Hang Seng Index relative to U.S. bonds has exceeded 8.56%.</b></p><p><b>2) On March 15 and the end of October this year, the risk premium rate of the Hang Seng Index relative to U.S. bonds also exceeded 9%, which led to the two waves of big market trends that followed.</b></p><p>It is more obvious to look at the percentile map, that is, the two sharp points circled, one is March 15th and the other is the end of October. The percentiles are above 90%, which is absolutely underestimated.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f33db11ba13f59f99b2de11591b25be5\" tg-width=\"967\" tg-height=\"555\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><b>3) As for now, the risk premium rate of the Hang Seng Index relative to U.S. bonds is 6.71%, which is far away from the opportunity point and near the historical average.</b></p><p><b>In terms of valuation, under the current level of U.S. bond yields, the valuation price-performance ratio of the Hang Seng Index is actually not that high.</b></p><p>But it's not so pessimistic,</p><p><b>Compared with itself, looking at the PE valuation, the PE of the Hang Seng Index is only 9.73 times, which is still near the opportunity value.</b></p><p><b>Moreover, the PE percentile of the Hang Seng Index is only 32.64%, and the valuation is lower than 2/3 of history.</b></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c1460473828e11cae91ad86e3cf2c5cf\" tg-width=\"961\" tg-height=\"531\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><b>(2) Position cost line</b></p><p>Let's look at everyone's cost line,</p><p>A few days ago, Lazy Cat conducted a survey: see what everyone's position cost line is.</p><p><b>The position cost line of the Hang Seng Technology Index is around 5,500 points, which is converted into the beginning of this year.</b></p><p><b>Corresponding to the Hang Seng Index, at the beginning of this year, the point of the Hang Seng Index was around 24,000 points, and the Hang Seng Index was still far from a strong selling pressure (the position of capital guarantee).</b></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a17dc85daf23747183ca1ce07cb72593\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"638\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><b>03</b></p><p>Finally, the main points are refined:</p><p>(1) Hong Kong stocks are an offshore market. The fundamentals follow the domestic market, and the liquidity follows the US dollar. Under the dual benefits of the slowdown of the Federal Reserve's rate hike and the recovery of the domestic economy, there has been a retaliatory rise since November.</p><p>At the same time, the continuous outflow of foreign capital has also returned, and half of the chips sold in the past two years have been taken back in more than a month.</p><p><b>(2) After the surge, the valuation repair of Hong Kong stocks has actually been almost completed. From the perspective of risk premium, the \"risk premium rate\" of the Hang Seng Index relative to U.S. bonds has returned to near the historical average level, and the price-performance ratio of stocks and bonds is not so high.</b></p><p><b>(3) However, compared with itself vertically, the valuation level of Hong Kong stocks is still not high, and it is still attractive. And there is still a certain distance from the cost line of most people. There may be a take-profit order at this position, but the selling pressure should not be that big.</b></p><p></body></html></p>","source":"lsy1624331313526","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>After a 33% surge, can Hong Kong stocks still chase?</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nAfter a 33% surge, can Hong Kong stocks still chase?\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">懒猫的丰收日</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2022-12-12 23:24</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><html><head></head><body>Down, down, down,</p><p>Monday, December 12th,<b>The Hang Seng Technology Index fell 4% and the Hang Seng Index fell 2.2%.</b></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/867f9086963978402f2981d477aa9222\" tg-width=\"840\" tg-height=\"470\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Even A-shares also fell, and the three major indexes all closed down by nearly 1%.</p><p>However, looking at the comments, everyone doesn't seem to be worried about the sudden drop:<b>If you dare to fall, I will dare to make up for it. If it doesn't fall, then that's it!</b></p><p>Also, under the resonance of multiple positive factors, Hong Kong stocks collectively soared in November.<b>The Hang Seng Index rose 26.62%, the biggest monthly increase for the Hang Seng Index since 2000.</b></p><p>Even since its establishment in 1964, this increase can rank 8th!</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/16900e6b7d72b1a105d706f0af700b5c\" tg-width=\"302\" tg-height=\"511\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>If the increase in December is also included, the increase of the Hang Seng Index can reach an astonishing 32.52%, leading the major global markets.</p><p>A cloud-piercing arrow, thousands of troops come to meet each other. Under such a skyrocketing rise, naturally everyone should no longer despair of Hong Kong stocks.</p><p>However, another problem followed after the surge:<b>Can Hong Kong stocks still be chased?</b></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/14c677a3b3daf779fdd53f4c10fbb34c\" tg-width=\"568\" tg-height=\"557\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><b>01 Why did it go up?</b></p><p>First, let's talk about why Hong Kong stocks rose, mainly for these four reasons:</p><p><b>(1) The pace of the Fed's rate hike is slowing down</b></p><p>Hong Kong stocks are an offshore market, and the ups and downs are mainly affected by the liquidity of the US dollar.</p><p>Most of the time, when the US dollar falls, Hong Kong stocks rise; When the U.S. dollar rises, Hong Kong stocks fall.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/927fd6994f3915fad342737337dfa553\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"573\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>For example, in the sharp drop in the past few months, the Hong Kong stock market fell as low as 14,600 points, which was 20% lower than the low point in March (18,200). A direct reason is that the Federal Reserve continues to conduct violent rate hike, which has brought global stock markets, including Hong Kong stocks, down.</p><p>Therefore, since November, as expectations for a slowdown in the pace of the Federal Reserve's rate hike have become stronger and stronger, the US Dollar Index has been falling all the way, from 113 to 105, and Hong Kong stocks have also responded, rising from 14,500 points to 20,000 points.</p><p><b>(2) Domestic fundamentals have improved and foreign capital has returned</b></p><p>There is no need to talk about this. After the liberalization, the biggest expectation of the market is \"economic recovery\".</p><p>Driven by this expectation, real estate has risen and consumption has risen.<b>Even foreign capital has begun to bargain-hunting Chinese assets again.</b></p><p>Since November, JPMorgan Chase & Co. has increased its holdings of 18.9 billion Hong Kong stocks, and UBS has increased its holdings of 14.4 billion Hong Kong stocks.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/038d73022fe4af00ea86c6db44a50ef3\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"164\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Compare the data from February 2021 to October this year,</p><p>JPMorgan Chase has reduced its holdings of 37.8 billion Hong Kong stocks, and UBS has reduced its holdings of 27.4 billion Hong Kong stocks...</p><p>It took more than a month to take back half of the chips sold in the past two years.</p><p>Suddenly, like a spring breeze overnight, the foreign capital that once voted with its feet came back ~</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3c8eaad9e0909426242ddc292eefc9b2\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"164\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><b>(3) The inflection point of Internet performance</b></p><p>This is coming to the third quarterly report.<b>After reducing costs and increasing efficiency, the performance of Internet companies has improved significantly.</b></p><p>In the third quarter, Tencent's performance growth rate turned positive, and the performance of Pinduoduo, Kuaishou, and Meituan also exceeded market expectations, so that the agency's summary of the third quarterly report of the Internet was that \"the performance of most companies exceeded expectations, and the turning point of recovery gradually became clear.\"</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b850f0e8794fb2bf97a8fd7e821fcd1a\" tg-width=\"731\" tg-height=\"146\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><b>(4) It fell a lot</b></p><p>This is also a very important reason,</p><p>A few days ago, Lazy Cat also wrote that the biggest decline of the Hang Seng Technology Index in this wave was 75%. Although it has rebounded by 50% now, it still needs to rise by another 164% to return to the highest point.</p><p>The same goes for the Hang Seng Index,</p><p>Before the decline, the Hang Seng Index fell from a high of 31183, and the lowest fell to 14597, a full drop of 53%.</p><p>Although it has rebounded to 19464 now, it is still 60% away from the highest point.</p><p><b>02 Where are you now?</b></p><p><b>(1) Evaluation</b></p><p>Since US dollar liquidity is an important factor in determining the rise and fall of Hong Kong stocks, let's take a look<b>The \"risk premium rate\" of the Hang Seng Index relative to U.S. bonds.</b></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/13d675bd7cadf8708496b0fde21104f8\" tg-width=\"971\" tg-height=\"544\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><b>1) 8.56% is an opportunity point. After several big bottoms, the risk premium rate of the Hang Seng Index relative to U.S. bonds has exceeded 8.56%.</b></p><p><b>2) On March 15 and the end of October this year, the risk premium rate of the Hang Seng Index relative to U.S. bonds also exceeded 9%, which led to the two waves of big market trends that followed.</b></p><p>It is more obvious to look at the percentile map, that is, the two sharp points circled, one is March 15th and the other is the end of October. The percentiles are above 90%, which is absolutely underestimated.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f33db11ba13f59f99b2de11591b25be5\" tg-width=\"967\" tg-height=\"555\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><b>3) As for now, the risk premium rate of the Hang Seng Index relative to U.S. bonds is 6.71%, which is far away from the opportunity point and near the historical average.</b></p><p><b>In terms of valuation, under the current level of U.S. bond yields, the valuation price-performance ratio of the Hang Seng Index is actually not that high.</b></p><p>But it's not so pessimistic,</p><p><b>Compared with itself, looking at the PE valuation, the PE of the Hang Seng Index is only 9.73 times, which is still near the opportunity value.</b></p><p><b>Moreover, the PE percentile of the Hang Seng Index is only 32.64%, and the valuation is lower than 2/3 of history.</b></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c1460473828e11cae91ad86e3cf2c5cf\" tg-width=\"961\" tg-height=\"531\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><b>(2) Position cost line</b></p><p>Let's look at everyone's cost line,</p><p>A few days ago, Lazy Cat conducted a survey: see what everyone's position cost line is.</p><p><b>The position cost line of the Hang Seng Technology Index is around 5,500 points, which is converted into the beginning of this year.</b></p><p><b>Corresponding to the Hang Seng Index, at the beginning of this year, the point of the Hang Seng Index was around 24,000 points, and the Hang Seng Index was still far from a strong selling pressure (the position of capital guarantee).</b></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a17dc85daf23747183ca1ce07cb72593\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"638\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><b>03</b></p><p>Finally, the main points are refined:</p><p>(1) Hong Kong stocks are an offshore market. The fundamentals follow the domestic market, and the liquidity follows the US dollar. Under the dual benefits of the slowdown of the Federal Reserve's rate hike and the recovery of the domestic economy, there has been a retaliatory rise since November.</p><p>At the same time, the continuous outflow of foreign capital has also returned, and half of the chips sold in the past two years have been taken back in more than a month.</p><p><b>(2) After the surge, the valuation repair of Hong Kong stocks has actually been almost completed. From the perspective of risk premium, the \"risk premium rate\" of the Hang Seng Index relative to U.S. bonds has returned to near the historical average level, and the price-performance ratio of stocks and bonds is not so high.</b></p><p><b>(3) However, compared with itself vertically, the valuation level of Hong Kong stocks is still not high, and it is still attractive. And there is still a certain distance from the cost line of most people. There may be a take-profit order at this position, but the selling pressure should not be that big.</b></p><p></body></html></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> source：<a href=\"https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s/js9T0kZGCS1HYCOZkK424A\">懒猫的丰收日</a></p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0cf777090175126e4590c3b8afdfe41e","relate_stocks":{"HSI":"恒生指数"},"source_url":"https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s/js9T0kZGCS1HYCOZkK424A","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1129031119","content_text":"跌了，跌了，12月12日周一，恒生科技指数跌了4%，恒生指数跌了2.2%。连带着A股也跟着颓了，三大指数收盘都跌了将近1%。不过看评论，大家对突如其来的大跌似乎并不担心：你敢跌，我就敢补，如果不跌，那就这样吧！也是，多重利好共振下，11月港股集体暴涨，恒生指数大涨26.62%，这是2000年以来恒指涨幅最大的一个月。即使从1964年成立以来算，这个涨幅也能排第8！如果把12月的涨幅也算进去的话，恒指的涨幅更是能达到惊人的32.52%，领跑全球主要市场。一根穿云箭，千军万马来相见，如此暴涨之下，大家自然不应该对港股再绝望。不过，大涨后另一个问题也随之而来：港股还能追吗？01为什么涨？先说说港股为什么涨，主要是这4个原因：（1）美联储加息节奏放缓港股是一个离岸市场，涨跌也主要受美元流动性的影响。大部分时间里，美元跌，港股就涨；美元涨，港股就跌。比如前几个月的大跌，港股最低跌到14600点，比3月份的低点（18200）还低了20%。一个直接原因就是美联储持续暴力加息，把包括港股在内的全球股市都拉下了水。所以，11月以来，随着美联储加息节奏放缓的预期越来越强烈，美元指数是一路下跌，从113跌到了105，港股也应声而起，从14500点涨回到了20000点。（2）国内基本面好转，外资又回来了这个就不用展开说了，放开后，市场最大的预期就是“经济复苏”。在这个预期带动下，地产涨了，消费涨了，连带着外资也开始重新抄底中国资产了。11月以来，摩根大通（JPMorgan Chase &Co.）净增持了189亿港股，瑞银（UBS）增持了144亿港股。再对比下2021年2月到今年10月的数据，摩根大通累积减持了378亿港股，瑞银累积减持了274亿港股...一个多月就把过去2年抛售筹码的一半接回来了。忽如一夜春风来，曾经用脚投票的外资又回来了~（3）互联网业绩拐点这就要说到三季报了，降本增效后，互联网公司业绩明显改善。三季度，腾讯业绩增速转正，拼多多、快手、美团的业绩也超出了市场预期，以至于机构对互联网三季报的总结是“多数公司业绩超预期，复苏拐点逐步明晰”。（4）跌的多了这也是一个很重要的原因，前几天，懒猫还写过，这一波恒生科技指数最大跌幅是75%，现在虽然反弹了50%+，但回到最高点还需要再涨164%。恒生指数也一样，下跌前，恒生指数是从31183的高点跌下来的，最低跌到14597，足足跌了53%。现在虽然反弹到了19464，但离最高点还有60%的距离。02现在走到哪了？（1）估值既然美元流动性是决定港股涨跌的重要因素，那我们看下恒生指数相对于美债的“风险溢价率”。1）8.56%是一个机会点，几次大的底部，恒生指数相对美债的风险溢价率都超过了8.56%。2）今年3月15日和10月底，恒生指数相对美债的风险溢价率也都超过了9%，这才有了随之而来的两波大行情。看百分位图更明显，就是圈出来的那2个尖点，一个是3月15日，一个是10月底，百分位都在90%以上，绝对的低估。3）至于现在，恒生指数相对美债的风险溢价率是6.71%，已经远离了机会点，历史平均值附近。从估值上来说，在当前美债收益率水平下，恒生指数的估值性价比其实已经没那么高了。但也没那么悲观，和自身对比，看PE估值的话，恒生指数的PE只有9.73倍，还在机会值附近。而且恒指的PE百分位也只有32.64%，估值比历史上2/3的时候都低。（2）持仓成本线再看大家的成本线，前几天懒猫搞过一个调查：看看大家的持仓成本线是多少。恒生科技指数的持仓成本线在5500点附近，换算成时间也就是今年年初的时候。对应到恒生指数上，今年年初，恒生指数的点位在24000点附近，恒指离强抛压（保本出的位置）仍有一定距离。03最后提炼下要点：（1）港股是一个离岸市场，基本面跟着国内走，流动性跟着美元走，在美联储加息节奏放缓和国内经济复苏的双重利好下，11月以来出现了报复性上涨。与此同时，持续流出的外资也回来了，一个多月就把过去2年抛售筹码的一半接回来了。（2）大涨后，港股的估值修复行情其实已经差不多完成了。从风险溢价的角度来看，恒指相对美债的“风险溢价率”已经回到历史平均水平附近，股债性价比没那么高了。（3）但和自身纵向对比，港股的估值水平仍然算不得高，还有吸引力。而且离大部分人的成本线也还有一定距离，这个位置可能有止盈盘，但抛压应该没那么大。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"HSI":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2484,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9923724448,"gmtCreate":1670917627884,"gmtModify":1676538459629,"author":{"id":"3578208981838945","authorId":"3578208981838945","name":"211013能量飞车","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e583c75322dd4651672938ebba8683b7","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3578208981838945","idStr":"3578208981838945"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"👍","listText":"👍","text":"👍","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9923724448","repostId":"1150737270","repostType":2,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2245,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9923817951,"gmtCreate":1670822861374,"gmtModify":1676538440963,"author":{"id":"3578208981838945","authorId":"3578208981838945","name":"211013能量飞车","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e583c75322dd4651672938ebba8683b7","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3578208981838945","idStr":"3578208981838945"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"👍","listText":"👍","text":"👍","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9923817951","repostId":"1195548564","repostType":2,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2783,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9920040663,"gmtCreate":1670403854352,"gmtModify":1676538361062,"author":{"id":"3578208981838945","authorId":"3578208981838945","name":"211013能量飞车","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e583c75322dd4651672938ebba8683b7","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3578208981838945","idStr":"3578208981838945"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"👍","listText":"👍","text":"👍","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9920040663","repostId":"1168304633","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1168304633","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1670338784,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1168304633?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2022-12-06 22:59","market":"hk","language":"zh","title":"Revisit the classic of Livermore, the king of speculation: revealing the secrets of trading!","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1168304633","media":"期乐会","summary":"有人说凡事都有两面，但是股市只有一面，不是多头的一面或空头的一面，而是事实的一面。让这条通则深深印在我的脑海里，所花费的时间，远远超过股票投机游戏中大多数比较技术层次的东西。今天，与大家分享来自华尔街","content":"<p><html><head></head><body>Some people say that everything has two sides, but there is only one side of the stock market, not the long side or the short side, but the fact side. It takes far more time to get this general rule deeply imprinted in my mind than most of the more technical things in the stock speculation game.</p><p>Today, I would like to share with you some key points of investment philosophy from Livermore, the king of Wall Street speculation. It is beneficial to open the book. I wish you all something!</p><p><b>Point 1: Wall Street will not change, human nature will not change</b></p><p>The market is regular, and the regularity of the market is due to the constant human nature.</p><p>One of the lessons I learned early in the stock market is that there is nothing new on Wall Street, because speculation is as old as mountains. What happened to the stock market today has happened before and will happen again. I guess what I really can't remember is when and how. The fact that I remember in this way, is the way I use experience.</p><p>Wall Street never changes, because human nature never changes.</p><p>I believe that being unable to control one's emotions is the real sworn enemy of speculators. Fear and greed are always there, and they are hidden in our hearts. They are waiting outside the market to jump into the market to perform, waiting for the opportunity to make a fortune; No matter at any time, fundamentally because of greed and fear, ignorance and hope, people always repeat their actions in the same way-which is why those figures and trends formed by numbers always repeat themselves.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8dfda976f6f6063e48351d7a18d95c47\" tg-width=\"335\" tg-height=\"236\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><b>Point 2: Making big money depends on patient \"waiting\"</b></p><p>Wait patiently for the truly perfect trend of the market, and don't make predictive interventions; Timing is everything, buy at the right time and sell at the right time.</p><p>Trading is not something to do every day. People who think they have to trade at any time ignore a condition, that is, trading requires reasons, and it is an objective and appropriate reason.</p><p>In addition to trying to decide how to make money, traders must try to avoid losing money. Knowing what should be done is almost as important as knowing what should not be done.</p><p>Stock operators have to fight against many costly enemies in their hearts. Making big money depends on waiting, not thinking; Be sure to wait until the time when all factors are in your favor.</p><p>The reason why it is so difficult to predict the market is because of human nature. Harnessing and conquering human nature is the most difficult task. It is very important to choose the timing carefully. Once you act too hastily, there will be a price to pay.</p><p>My loss was entirely caused by my lack of patience, and I didn't patiently wait for the right moment to support the opinions and plans that had been formed in advance. After 15 years of not understanding, there are things that allowed me to wait for two weeks to see the stock I am very optimistic about rise by 30 points before I feel safe to buy.</p><p>This requires patience, waiting for the right key point to appear, waiting for the right trading opportunity. Patience, patience, patience again, this is his secret to seizing the opportunity and succeeding. He often said, \"What makes money is not ideas, but waiting\".</p><p>All a person needs to do, is watch what the market is telling him and react to it. The answer lies in the market itself, and the challenge comes from making a correct interpretation of the facts presented.</p><p>\"Timing is everything\". Before entering a trade, the most important thing is to determine whether the minimum resistance line is in the same direction as your trade.</p><p>My experience is that if I don't enter the market near the beginning of a trend, I absolutely won't make much profit from that trend. The reason is, I missed out on the profit reserve.</p><p>With this kind of courage and patience, he can wait and watch the changes in the market, and he can hold shares in the face of small falls or rebounds that will inevitably continue to occur before the end of this market.</p><p>The market will signal you in time when to enter the market. It is also certain that the market will signal you to exit in time-if you wait patiently.</p><p>\"Rome wasn't built in a day\", and really big trends don't end in a day or a week. It takes time for it to go through its own logical process.</p><p>In many cases, Livermore is holding the currency and waiting and watching until the right market appears. Many of his successes lie in his ability to wait and see and wait patiently until the right market appears in front of him.</p><p>When the market appears and there are many opportunities in his favor, at this time, and only at this time, he darts out like a cobra.</p><p>One of the key points of my later trading theory was: only trade on key points. As long as I have patience and trade on key points, I can always make money. I also think that the largest part of a stock's market tends to occur in the last two weeks or longer of this market.</p><p>But remember, when using key points to predict the market, if the stock doesn't behave as it should after crossing the key point, it is an important red flag that needs immediate attention. As long as I lose patience and don't wait until the key point appears, but make money as easily, I will definitely lose money.</p><p>In addition, it should be noted that at the end of a market, the trading volume increases significantly, which is often a real distribution. Because stocks have been transferred from strong hands to weak hands, from professional traders to ordinary investors.</p><p>The average investor believes that the sharp increase in trading volume is a signal of an active and healthy market after a normal adjustment-either to the highest price or to the lowest price-but this view is unfounded.</p><p>I want to make it clear to those who are willing to regard speculation as a serious business, and I wish to solemnly reiterate that wishful thinking must be eliminated; Those who expect to speculate every day or every week will not succeed; The number of times you allow yourself to enter the trade, maybe only four or five times a year.</p><p>Before trading, wait and wait patiently until as many factors as possible are in your favor before trading.</p><p>Patience can make you money. It is dangerous not to predict or estimate when and in what direction the market will go.</p><p>You have to wait for a breakout in the market or stock. Don't estimate, wait for the market to confirm, and don't argue with the quotation. Cash was, is, and always will be king.</p><p>In fact, it is often those who hold money and wait and wait until the right time to trade that can make a lot of money. Patience and patience are the key to success. If a shrewd speculator grasps this, time is his best friend.</p><p>Seize the right moment to enter the market. Time is not money because sometimes, even though you enter the market early, you can't make money-time is time, and money is money. Funds have to wait until the right time to enter the market to make money-patience, patience, and patience are the keys to success.</p><p>Don't predict and don't act without the confirmation of the market. There were many times when I, like many other speculators, didn't have the patience to wait for what was bound to happen.</p><p>I am human and I am subservient to human weaknesses. Like all speculators, I have lost patience, lost correct judgment, and reversed their positions-full of hope when I should be afraid; Feeling scared when it should be hopeful.</p><p>Real trends don't end the day they start, and a real trend takes time. Remember that stocks are never too high, too high for you to start buying or too low for you to start selling. But after the first transaction, don't make the second transaction unless there is a profit in the first transaction. Wait and watch. This is when your solving skills come into play, allowing you to decide the right time to start.</p><p>The success of many things depends on whether they start at the exactly right time. It took me years to learn the importance of this.</p><p><b>Point 3: Win success by hard research and clear thinking</b></p><p>Correct is correct, wrong is wrong, only do the right thing, don't add mistakes to mistakes.</p><p>A talented speculator once told me: When I see a red flag, I don't argue with it. I'm dodging! In a few days, if everything looks good, I'll come back again. Here's what I thought, if I was walking along the tracks and saw a train coming at me at 60 miles per hour, I would jump off the tracks and let the train pass by without stupidly standing there still. After it passed, I could always get back on the tracks if I wanted.</p><p>These words vividly show a kind of speculative wisdom that I will never forget.</p><p>Oddly enough, what most speculators are in trouble with is something within themselves that makes them not brave enough to close their positions when they should.</p><p>They hesitate, and in their hesitation, they watch the market move many points against them.</p><p>Obviously, what should be done is to be bullish in the long market and bearish in the short market. It sounds funny, but I have to know this general principle deeply before I can put it into practice. It took me a long time to learn to trade according to these principles.</p><p>Solving the market is an important part of this game. It is also important to start at the right time, and it is just as important to stick to your position. But, my biggest discovery is that one must study and evaluate the overall condition in order to predict future possibilities.</p><p>I no longer gamble blindly, no longer care about how to master operational skills, but care about winning my own success by hard research and clear thinking.</p><p>I also find that no one is immune to the danger of committing stupid operations. If a person operates stupidity, he will pay the price for stupidity.</p><p><b>Point 4: Don't compete with the market</b></p><p>The market accommodates and digests everything, it is always correct, and it is wisest to conform to the market.</p><p>My theory is that there is always an irresistible force behind these major trends. Knowing that is enough. Being too curious about all the reasons behind the price movement is not a good thing.</p><p>As long as you recognize where the trend is appearing, and ride your speculative boat along the trend, you can benefit from it without arguing with the market, and most importantly, don't compete with the market.</p><p>The masses should always keep in mind the elements of stock trading. When a stock rises, there is no need to spend time explaining why it is rising. Continued buying will keep the stock price rising. As long as the stock price continues to rise and occasionally there is a natural small retracement, it is generally a quite safe way to follow the rising trend.</p><p>However, if the stock price gradually begins to fall after a long period of steady rise, and only rebounds occasionally, it is obvious that the route of least resistance has changed from upward to downward. This is the case, so why look for an explanation?</p><p>There may well be good reasons for the stock price to fall, however, these reasons are only known to a few people. They either kept the reason secret, or instead told the public that the stock was cheap. This is the essence of this game. The public should know that the few people who know the inside story won't tell the truth.</p><p>The simple fact is that the market always changes first, and then there is economic news, and the market does not react to economic news. The market is alive, and it reflects the future.</p><p>Greed, like fear, distorts reason. The stock market only talks about facts, reality and rationality. The stock market can never be wrong, and it is the traders who are wrong.</p><p><b>Point 5: There is only one side of the stock market, the fact side</b></p><p>Loss is the cost of trading. Failure is not terrible. What is terrible is not learning enough lessons from failure.</p><p>No matter how experienced a trader is, there is always the possibility that he will make a mistake and make a losing trade. Because speculation can't be 100% safe. The so-called experience means that there are many lessons, which are profound, heartbreaking and embarrassing. It doesn't hurt, can't remember, doesn't hurt, can't reflect. And that's what it is. It's normal for a person to make mistakes, but if he can't learn from them, it's really wronged.</p><p>Nothing in the world can teach you what you shouldn't do better than losing everything. When you know what not to do to not lose money, you start learning what to do to win money.</p><p>If someone told me that my method wouldn't work, I would try it thoroughly anyway, so that I could be sure of it. Because when I am wrong, there is only one thing-losing money-that can convince me that I am wrong.</p><p>I know that one day I will find the wrong place and not make it again. I am only right when I make money. This is speculation.</p><p>It takes a long time for a man to learn all his lessons from all his mistakes. Some people say that everything has two sides, but the stock market has only one side: not the long side or the short side, but the fact side.</p><p>It takes far more time to get this general rule deeply imprinted in my mind than most of the more technical things in the stock speculation game.</p><p>Losing money is the last thing that bothers me. After I admit it, the loss never bothers me, and the next day I forget about it. But mistakes-failure to admit losses-are things that hurt pockets and hearts.</p><p>If a man doesn't make a mistake, he will have the whole world in a month. However, if he can't get benefit from his mistakes, he can never have anything good.</p><p><b>Point 6: Unable to control your emotions is the biggest enemy of speculators</b></p><p>Trading is the confrontation between reason and emotion, and trading requires rational planning.</p><p>I learned a long time ago that the stock market is never uneventful. It is designed to fool most people, most of the time.</p><p>There are two main emotions in the stock market, hope and fear-hope is often born of greed, while fear is often born of ignorance.</p><p>I believe that being unable to control one's emotions is the real sworn enemy of speculators. Fear and greed are always there, and they are hidden in our hearts. They are waiting outside the market to jump into the market to perform, waiting for the opportunity to make a fortune.</p><p>Hope is vital to human survival, but it is the same as its cousins in the stock market-ignorance, greed, fear and twisted sanity. Hope covers up the facts and the stock market only recognizes the facts. The result is objective and final, and like nature, it will not change.</p><p>The main enemy of the speculator always appears from within. Humanity is inseparable from hope and fear. When speculating, if the market deviates from you, you hope that every day is the last day-and if you don't follow the hope, you will lose more than you should-strongly enough to rival the founding heroes and pioneers of all sizes.</p><p>When the market goes as you want, you are afraid that tomorrow will take all your profits away, so you quit-too quickly. Fear keeps you from making as much money as you should.</p><p>Successful traders must overcome these two deep-rooted instincts. He had to change what you might call a natural impulse. When he holds hope, he should be afraid, and when he is afraid, he should hope. He must be afraid that his losses may turn into even greater losses and hope that his profits may turn into even greater profits. It is absolutely wrong to gamble on stocks as ordinary people do.</p><p>Remember, if an investor doesn't have self-discipline, a clear strategy and a simple and easy plan, he will fall into the trap of emotions. Because a speculator without a plan is like a general without a strategy, and therefore without a feasible battle plan.</p><p><b>Point 7: Never let losses exceed 10% of your capital</b></p><p>Take control of your trades and manage your funds.</p><p>Unless you know that the transaction you are going to make is financially safe, never make any transaction.</p><p>The dilemma faced by inexperienced speculators is often paying too much for each position. Why is it? Because everyone wants to trade. Paying too much for each transaction is inhuman. People want to buy at the low price and sell at the high price. Be calm, don't argue with facts, don't keep hope when there is no hope, don't argue with the quotation machine, because the quotation machine is always correct-there is no position of hope, no position of guess, no position of fear in speculation, no position of greed, no position of emotion.</p><p>Finally, speculators should buy stocks in several times, and only buy a certain percentage each time.</p><p>If I buy a stock I like in a situation and it doesn't perform as I hope, for me that's enough evidence to sell the stock.</p><p>I put forward my 10% rule-if I lose more than 10% on a trade, I throw it right away.</p><p>I threw it instinctively. In fact, this is not instinct but subconscious mind accumulated over the years of fighting in the stock market. You must obey your own rules-don't deceive yourself, don't delay, don't wait! My basic principle is to never allow losses to exceed 10% of capital.</p><p><b>Point 8: Make big money amid big fluctuations</b></p><p>The biggest enemy of investors is not the market or anything else, but the investors themselves. Big fluctuations can make you a lot of money.</p><p>Let me say one thing here: After all these years on Wall Street, making millions of dollars and losing millions of dollars, I want to tell you this: My ideas have never made me big money, but I always insist on making me big money. Got it? I'm the one who holds on!</p><p>It is not surprising that the market judgment is correct. In a long market, you will always find many people who are long from the beginning, and in a short market, you will also find many people who are short from the beginning.</p><p>People who can judge correctly and persist at the same time are rare, and I find this to be the hardest thing to learn. But a stock operator can only make a lot of money after he really understands this. This is so true. It is easier for an operator to make millions of dollars when he knows how to operate it than he wants to make hundreds of dollars when he knows nothing.</p><p>The reason is that a person may see clearly and definitely, but when the market takes its time and is ready to go in the direction he thinks it will go, he becomes impatient or suspicious.</p><p>There are so many people on Wall Street who don't belong to the fool class at all or even the third-level fools, but they all lose money. This is the reason.</p><p>The market didn't beat them, they beat themselves. Because although they have brains, they can't hold on.</p><p>I began to understand that to make big money, you must make it in big fluctuations. No matter what factors may be driving the start of big fluctuations, as long as the facts are there, big fluctuations can continue. This is not the result of the hype of insider groups or the skills of financiers, but depends on the basic situation.</p><p>Ignoring the big fluctuations and trying to rush in and out is a fatal problem for me. No one can catch all the ups and downs. In a long market, your approach is to buy and hold tight until you believe that the long market is coming to an end.</p><p>To do so, you have to study the overall general trend, not the clear brands or special factors affecting individual stocks, and then you have to forget all your stocks, forever!</p><p>One of the most helpful things anyone can learn is to give up trying to catch the last or first gear.</p><p>These two gears are the most expensive things in the world. Together, these two gears cost stockholders millions of dollars, enough to build a cement road across the American continent.</p><p>One can't get very far in this game if one doesn't have confidence in one's judgment. That's probably everything I've learned-study the overall situation, take positions, and stick to it.</p><p><b>Point 9: The person who solves the stock market, the biggest mystery of mankind, should win the jackpot</b></p><p>Speculation is a game, but also your own business, which requires continuous efforts, dedication and summary.</p><p>Stock trading is actually playing a game, and you must win in this game. Good stock traders can't help but be like well-trained professional athletes. They must develop good living habits and maintain abundant physical strength.</p><p>It's not money that drives me either. It is a game, a game of solving mysteries, a game of messing up and complicating the greatest minds in human history.</p><p>For me, passion, challenge and excitement are all in winning this game. This game is a vibrant riddle, and the answer to this riddle is for me to tell all the men and women who speculate on Wall Street.</p><p>In the game, your nerves are pushed to the limit, but the rewards are also very high. My career is trading-that is, following the facts in front of me, not what I think others should do.</p><p>Let me give you a heads up: Your success will be directly proportional to the sincerity and loyalty you show in your own endeavors. This effort includes insisting on keeping your own market records, thinking and drawing your own conclusions.</p><p>If a person wants to live on this game, he must trust himself and his own judgment. No one can make a lot of money by being told what to do.</p><p>The stock market is the biggest and most complicated mystery invented by human beings, and whoever solves this mystery deserves the jackpot. It takes a long time for a man to learn all his lessons from all his mistakes.</p><p>Let's revisit it again: Some people say that everything has two sides, but the stock market has only one side, not the long side or the short side, but the fact side. It takes far more time to get this general rule deeply imprinted in my mind than most of the more technical things in the stock speculation game.</p><p>Finally, let us conclude with the words of Richard Smitten, a Wall Street observer: \"Thank you, Jesse Livermore, for your wisdom, for your hard work, and for your extraordinary understanding.\"</p><p></body></html></p>","source":"lsy1645511055786","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Revisit the classic of Livermore, the king of speculation: revealing the secrets of trading!</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nRevisit the classic of Livermore, the king of speculation: revealing the secrets of trading!\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">期乐会</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2022-12-06 22:59</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><html><head></head><body>Some people say that everything has two sides, but there is only one side of the stock market, not the long side or the short side, but the fact side. It takes far more time to get this general rule deeply imprinted in my mind than most of the more technical things in the stock speculation game.</p><p>Today, I would like to share with you some key points of investment philosophy from Livermore, the king of Wall Street speculation. It is beneficial to open the book. I wish you all something!</p><p><b>Point 1: Wall Street will not change, human nature will not change</b></p><p>The market is regular, and the regularity of the market is due to the constant human nature.</p><p>One of the lessons I learned early in the stock market is that there is nothing new on Wall Street, because speculation is as old as mountains. What happened to the stock market today has happened before and will happen again. I guess what I really can't remember is when and how. The fact that I remember in this way, is the way I use experience.</p><p>Wall Street never changes, because human nature never changes.</p><p>I believe that being unable to control one's emotions is the real sworn enemy of speculators. Fear and greed are always there, and they are hidden in our hearts. They are waiting outside the market to jump into the market to perform, waiting for the opportunity to make a fortune; No matter at any time, fundamentally because of greed and fear, ignorance and hope, people always repeat their actions in the same way-which is why those figures and trends formed by numbers always repeat themselves.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8dfda976f6f6063e48351d7a18d95c47\" tg-width=\"335\" tg-height=\"236\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><b>Point 2: Making big money depends on patient \"waiting\"</b></p><p>Wait patiently for the truly perfect trend of the market, and don't make predictive interventions; Timing is everything, buy at the right time and sell at the right time.</p><p>Trading is not something to do every day. People who think they have to trade at any time ignore a condition, that is, trading requires reasons, and it is an objective and appropriate reason.</p><p>In addition to trying to decide how to make money, traders must try to avoid losing money. Knowing what should be done is almost as important as knowing what should not be done.</p><p>Stock operators have to fight against many costly enemies in their hearts. Making big money depends on waiting, not thinking; Be sure to wait until the time when all factors are in your favor.</p><p>The reason why it is so difficult to predict the market is because of human nature. Harnessing and conquering human nature is the most difficult task. It is very important to choose the timing carefully. Once you act too hastily, there will be a price to pay.</p><p>My loss was entirely caused by my lack of patience, and I didn't patiently wait for the right moment to support the opinions and plans that had been formed in advance. After 15 years of not understanding, there are things that allowed me to wait for two weeks to see the stock I am very optimistic about rise by 30 points before I feel safe to buy.</p><p>This requires patience, waiting for the right key point to appear, waiting for the right trading opportunity. Patience, patience, patience again, this is his secret to seizing the opportunity and succeeding. He often said, \"What makes money is not ideas, but waiting\".</p><p>All a person needs to do, is watch what the market is telling him and react to it. The answer lies in the market itself, and the challenge comes from making a correct interpretation of the facts presented.</p><p>\"Timing is everything\". Before entering a trade, the most important thing is to determine whether the minimum resistance line is in the same direction as your trade.</p><p>My experience is that if I don't enter the market near the beginning of a trend, I absolutely won't make much profit from that trend. The reason is, I missed out on the profit reserve.</p><p>With this kind of courage and patience, he can wait and watch the changes in the market, and he can hold shares in the face of small falls or rebounds that will inevitably continue to occur before the end of this market.</p><p>The market will signal you in time when to enter the market. It is also certain that the market will signal you to exit in time-if you wait patiently.</p><p>\"Rome wasn't built in a day\", and really big trends don't end in a day or a week. It takes time for it to go through its own logical process.</p><p>In many cases, Livermore is holding the currency and waiting and watching until the right market appears. Many of his successes lie in his ability to wait and see and wait patiently until the right market appears in front of him.</p><p>When the market appears and there are many opportunities in his favor, at this time, and only at this time, he darts out like a cobra.</p><p>One of the key points of my later trading theory was: only trade on key points. As long as I have patience and trade on key points, I can always make money. I also think that the largest part of a stock's market tends to occur in the last two weeks or longer of this market.</p><p>But remember, when using key points to predict the market, if the stock doesn't behave as it should after crossing the key point, it is an important red flag that needs immediate attention. As long as I lose patience and don't wait until the key point appears, but make money as easily, I will definitely lose money.</p><p>In addition, it should be noted that at the end of a market, the trading volume increases significantly, which is often a real distribution. Because stocks have been transferred from strong hands to weak hands, from professional traders to ordinary investors.</p><p>The average investor believes that the sharp increase in trading volume is a signal of an active and healthy market after a normal adjustment-either to the highest price or to the lowest price-but this view is unfounded.</p><p>I want to make it clear to those who are willing to regard speculation as a serious business, and I wish to solemnly reiterate that wishful thinking must be eliminated; Those who expect to speculate every day or every week will not succeed; The number of times you allow yourself to enter the trade, maybe only four or five times a year.</p><p>Before trading, wait and wait patiently until as many factors as possible are in your favor before trading.</p><p>Patience can make you money. It is dangerous not to predict or estimate when and in what direction the market will go.</p><p>You have to wait for a breakout in the market or stock. Don't estimate, wait for the market to confirm, and don't argue with the quotation. Cash was, is, and always will be king.</p><p>In fact, it is often those who hold money and wait and wait until the right time to trade that can make a lot of money. Patience and patience are the key to success. If a shrewd speculator grasps this, time is his best friend.</p><p>Seize the right moment to enter the market. Time is not money because sometimes, even though you enter the market early, you can't make money-time is time, and money is money. Funds have to wait until the right time to enter the market to make money-patience, patience, and patience are the keys to success.</p><p>Don't predict and don't act without the confirmation of the market. There were many times when I, like many other speculators, didn't have the patience to wait for what was bound to happen.</p><p>I am human and I am subservient to human weaknesses. Like all speculators, I have lost patience, lost correct judgment, and reversed their positions-full of hope when I should be afraid; Feeling scared when it should be hopeful.</p><p>Real trends don't end the day they start, and a real trend takes time. Remember that stocks are never too high, too high for you to start buying or too low for you to start selling. But after the first transaction, don't make the second transaction unless there is a profit in the first transaction. Wait and watch. This is when your solving skills come into play, allowing you to decide the right time to start.</p><p>The success of many things depends on whether they start at the exactly right time. It took me years to learn the importance of this.</p><p><b>Point 3: Win success by hard research and clear thinking</b></p><p>Correct is correct, wrong is wrong, only do the right thing, don't add mistakes to mistakes.</p><p>A talented speculator once told me: When I see a red flag, I don't argue with it. I'm dodging! In a few days, if everything looks good, I'll come back again. Here's what I thought, if I was walking along the tracks and saw a train coming at me at 60 miles per hour, I would jump off the tracks and let the train pass by without stupidly standing there still. After it passed, I could always get back on the tracks if I wanted.</p><p>These words vividly show a kind of speculative wisdom that I will never forget.</p><p>Oddly enough, what most speculators are in trouble with is something within themselves that makes them not brave enough to close their positions when they should.</p><p>They hesitate, and in their hesitation, they watch the market move many points against them.</p><p>Obviously, what should be done is to be bullish in the long market and bearish in the short market. It sounds funny, but I have to know this general principle deeply before I can put it into practice. It took me a long time to learn to trade according to these principles.</p><p>Solving the market is an important part of this game. It is also important to start at the right time, and it is just as important to stick to your position. But, my biggest discovery is that one must study and evaluate the overall condition in order to predict future possibilities.</p><p>I no longer gamble blindly, no longer care about how to master operational skills, but care about winning my own success by hard research and clear thinking.</p><p>I also find that no one is immune to the danger of committing stupid operations. If a person operates stupidity, he will pay the price for stupidity.</p><p><b>Point 4: Don't compete with the market</b></p><p>The market accommodates and digests everything, it is always correct, and it is wisest to conform to the market.</p><p>My theory is that there is always an irresistible force behind these major trends. Knowing that is enough. Being too curious about all the reasons behind the price movement is not a good thing.</p><p>As long as you recognize where the trend is appearing, and ride your speculative boat along the trend, you can benefit from it without arguing with the market, and most importantly, don't compete with the market.</p><p>The masses should always keep in mind the elements of stock trading. When a stock rises, there is no need to spend time explaining why it is rising. Continued buying will keep the stock price rising. As long as the stock price continues to rise and occasionally there is a natural small retracement, it is generally a quite safe way to follow the rising trend.</p><p>However, if the stock price gradually begins to fall after a long period of steady rise, and only rebounds occasionally, it is obvious that the route of least resistance has changed from upward to downward. This is the case, so why look for an explanation?</p><p>There may well be good reasons for the stock price to fall, however, these reasons are only known to a few people. They either kept the reason secret, or instead told the public that the stock was cheap. This is the essence of this game. The public should know that the few people who know the inside story won't tell the truth.</p><p>The simple fact is that the market always changes first, and then there is economic news, and the market does not react to economic news. The market is alive, and it reflects the future.</p><p>Greed, like fear, distorts reason. The stock market only talks about facts, reality and rationality. The stock market can never be wrong, and it is the traders who are wrong.</p><p><b>Point 5: There is only one side of the stock market, the fact side</b></p><p>Loss is the cost of trading. Failure is not terrible. What is terrible is not learning enough lessons from failure.</p><p>No matter how experienced a trader is, there is always the possibility that he will make a mistake and make a losing trade. Because speculation can't be 100% safe. The so-called experience means that there are many lessons, which are profound, heartbreaking and embarrassing. It doesn't hurt, can't remember, doesn't hurt, can't reflect. And that's what it is. It's normal for a person to make mistakes, but if he can't learn from them, it's really wronged.</p><p>Nothing in the world can teach you what you shouldn't do better than losing everything. When you know what not to do to not lose money, you start learning what to do to win money.</p><p>If someone told me that my method wouldn't work, I would try it thoroughly anyway, so that I could be sure of it. Because when I am wrong, there is only one thing-losing money-that can convince me that I am wrong.</p><p>I know that one day I will find the wrong place and not make it again. I am only right when I make money. This is speculation.</p><p>It takes a long time for a man to learn all his lessons from all his mistakes. Some people say that everything has two sides, but the stock market has only one side: not the long side or the short side, but the fact side.</p><p>It takes far more time to get this general rule deeply imprinted in my mind than most of the more technical things in the stock speculation game.</p><p>Losing money is the last thing that bothers me. After I admit it, the loss never bothers me, and the next day I forget about it. But mistakes-failure to admit losses-are things that hurt pockets and hearts.</p><p>If a man doesn't make a mistake, he will have the whole world in a month. However, if he can't get benefit from his mistakes, he can never have anything good.</p><p><b>Point 6: Unable to control your emotions is the biggest enemy of speculators</b></p><p>Trading is the confrontation between reason and emotion, and trading requires rational planning.</p><p>I learned a long time ago that the stock market is never uneventful. It is designed to fool most people, most of the time.</p><p>There are two main emotions in the stock market, hope and fear-hope is often born of greed, while fear is often born of ignorance.</p><p>I believe that being unable to control one's emotions is the real sworn enemy of speculators. Fear and greed are always there, and they are hidden in our hearts. They are waiting outside the market to jump into the market to perform, waiting for the opportunity to make a fortune.</p><p>Hope is vital to human survival, but it is the same as its cousins in the stock market-ignorance, greed, fear and twisted sanity. Hope covers up the facts and the stock market only recognizes the facts. The result is objective and final, and like nature, it will not change.</p><p>The main enemy of the speculator always appears from within. Humanity is inseparable from hope and fear. When speculating, if the market deviates from you, you hope that every day is the last day-and if you don't follow the hope, you will lose more than you should-strongly enough to rival the founding heroes and pioneers of all sizes.</p><p>When the market goes as you want, you are afraid that tomorrow will take all your profits away, so you quit-too quickly. Fear keeps you from making as much money as you should.</p><p>Successful traders must overcome these two deep-rooted instincts. He had to change what you might call a natural impulse. When he holds hope, he should be afraid, and when he is afraid, he should hope. He must be afraid that his losses may turn into even greater losses and hope that his profits may turn into even greater profits. It is absolutely wrong to gamble on stocks as ordinary people do.</p><p>Remember, if an investor doesn't have self-discipline, a clear strategy and a simple and easy plan, he will fall into the trap of emotions. Because a speculator without a plan is like a general without a strategy, and therefore without a feasible battle plan.</p><p><b>Point 7: Never let losses exceed 10% of your capital</b></p><p>Take control of your trades and manage your funds.</p><p>Unless you know that the transaction you are going to make is financially safe, never make any transaction.</p><p>The dilemma faced by inexperienced speculators is often paying too much for each position. Why is it? Because everyone wants to trade. Paying too much for each transaction is inhuman. People want to buy at the low price and sell at the high price. Be calm, don't argue with facts, don't keep hope when there is no hope, don't argue with the quotation machine, because the quotation machine is always correct-there is no position of hope, no position of guess, no position of fear in speculation, no position of greed, no position of emotion.</p><p>Finally, speculators should buy stocks in several times, and only buy a certain percentage each time.</p><p>If I buy a stock I like in a situation and it doesn't perform as I hope, for me that's enough evidence to sell the stock.</p><p>I put forward my 10% rule-if I lose more than 10% on a trade, I throw it right away.</p><p>I threw it instinctively. In fact, this is not instinct but subconscious mind accumulated over the years of fighting in the stock market. You must obey your own rules-don't deceive yourself, don't delay, don't wait! My basic principle is to never allow losses to exceed 10% of capital.</p><p><b>Point 8: Make big money amid big fluctuations</b></p><p>The biggest enemy of investors is not the market or anything else, but the investors themselves. Big fluctuations can make you a lot of money.</p><p>Let me say one thing here: After all these years on Wall Street, making millions of dollars and losing millions of dollars, I want to tell you this: My ideas have never made me big money, but I always insist on making me big money. Got it? I'm the one who holds on!</p><p>It is not surprising that the market judgment is correct. In a long market, you will always find many people who are long from the beginning, and in a short market, you will also find many people who are short from the beginning.</p><p>People who can judge correctly and persist at the same time are rare, and I find this to be the hardest thing to learn. But a stock operator can only make a lot of money after he really understands this. This is so true. It is easier for an operator to make millions of dollars when he knows how to operate it than he wants to make hundreds of dollars when he knows nothing.</p><p>The reason is that a person may see clearly and definitely, but when the market takes its time and is ready to go in the direction he thinks it will go, he becomes impatient or suspicious.</p><p>There are so many people on Wall Street who don't belong to the fool class at all or even the third-level fools, but they all lose money. This is the reason.</p><p>The market didn't beat them, they beat themselves. Because although they have brains, they can't hold on.</p><p>I began to understand that to make big money, you must make it in big fluctuations. No matter what factors may be driving the start of big fluctuations, as long as the facts are there, big fluctuations can continue. This is not the result of the hype of insider groups or the skills of financiers, but depends on the basic situation.</p><p>Ignoring the big fluctuations and trying to rush in and out is a fatal problem for me. No one can catch all the ups and downs. In a long market, your approach is to buy and hold tight until you believe that the long market is coming to an end.</p><p>To do so, you have to study the overall general trend, not the clear brands or special factors affecting individual stocks, and then you have to forget all your stocks, forever!</p><p>One of the most helpful things anyone can learn is to give up trying to catch the last or first gear.</p><p>These two gears are the most expensive things in the world. Together, these two gears cost stockholders millions of dollars, enough to build a cement road across the American continent.</p><p>One can't get very far in this game if one doesn't have confidence in one's judgment. That's probably everything I've learned-study the overall situation, take positions, and stick to it.</p><p><b>Point 9: The person who solves the stock market, the biggest mystery of mankind, should win the jackpot</b></p><p>Speculation is a game, but also your own business, which requires continuous efforts, dedication and summary.</p><p>Stock trading is actually playing a game, and you must win in this game. Good stock traders can't help but be like well-trained professional athletes. They must develop good living habits and maintain abundant physical strength.</p><p>It's not money that drives me either. It is a game, a game of solving mysteries, a game of messing up and complicating the greatest minds in human history.</p><p>For me, passion, challenge and excitement are all in winning this game. This game is a vibrant riddle, and the answer to this riddle is for me to tell all the men and women who speculate on Wall Street.</p><p>In the game, your nerves are pushed to the limit, but the rewards are also very high. My career is trading-that is, following the facts in front of me, not what I think others should do.</p><p>Let me give you a heads up: Your success will be directly proportional to the sincerity and loyalty you show in your own endeavors. This effort includes insisting on keeping your own market records, thinking and drawing your own conclusions.</p><p>If a person wants to live on this game, he must trust himself and his own judgment. No one can make a lot of money by being told what to do.</p><p>The stock market is the biggest and most complicated mystery invented by human beings, and whoever solves this mystery deserves the jackpot. It takes a long time for a man to learn all his lessons from all his mistakes.</p><p>Let's revisit it again: Some people say that everything has two sides, but the stock market has only one side, not the long side or the short side, but the fact side. It takes far more time to get this general rule deeply imprinted in my mind than most of the more technical things in the stock speculation game.</p><p>Finally, let us conclude with the words of Richard Smitten, a Wall Street observer: \"Thank you, Jesse Livermore, for your wisdom, for your hard work, and for your extraordinary understanding.\"</p><p></body></html></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> source：<a href=\"https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s/rTBUIUZK6Ww9n6pAg0kpPA\">期乐会</a></p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3b95528fdc6a3c8b5fe288dfa493f854","relate_stocks":{},"source_url":"https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s/rTBUIUZK6Ww9n6pAg0kpPA","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1168304633","content_text":"有人说凡事都有两面，但是股市只有一面，不是多头的一面或空头的一面，而是事实的一面。让这条通则深深印在我的脑海里，所花费的时间，远远超过股票投机游戏中大多数比较技术层次的东西。今天，与大家分享来自华尔街投机之王利弗莫尔的几条投资理念要点，开卷有益，祝大家能有所收获哦！要点一：华尔街不会改变，人性不会改变市场是有规律的，市场的规律性缘因于不变的人性。我很早在股市中学到的一个教训，就是华尔街没有新事物，因为投机就像山岳那么古老。股市今天发生的事以前发生过，以后会再度发生。我想我真正没法记住的就是何时和如何发生。我用这种方式记住的事实，就是我利用经验的方法。华尔街从来不会改变，因为人的本性是从来不会改变的。我认为，控制不住自己的情绪是投机者真正的死敌。恐惧和贪婪总是存在的，他们就藏在我们的心里。它们在市场外面等着跳进市场来表现，等着机会大赚一把；无论是在什么时候，从根本上说由于贪婪和恐惧、无知和希望，人们总是按照相同的方法重复自己的行为——这就是为什么那些数字构成的图形和趋势，总是一成不变地重复出现的原因。要点二：赚大钱要靠耐心“等待”耐心等待市场真正完美的趋势，不要做预测性介入；时机就是一切，要在恰当的时候买进，也要在恰当的时候卖出。交易不是每天要做的事情，那种认为随时都要交易的人，忽略了一个条件，就是交易是需要理由的，而且是客观的、适当的理由。除了设法决定如何赚钱之外，交易者必须设法避免亏钱。知道什么应该做，跟知道什么不应该做几乎一样重要。股票作手必须对抗内心中很多代价高昂的敌人。赚大钱要靠等待，而不是靠想；一定要等到所有因素都对你有利的时机。预测市场之所以如此困难，就是因为人的本性。驾驭和征服人的本性是最困难的任务。仔细地选择时机是非常重要的，一旦操之过急，是要付出代价的。我的损失完全是由于缺乏耐心造成的，没有耐心地等待恰当的时机，来支持事先已经形成的看法和计划。不懂得15年后，有些事情让我能够等待长长的两星期，看着我十分看好的股票上涨30点时，才觉得买进很安全。这要有耐心，等着恰当的关键点出现，等着恰当的交易时机。耐心、耐心、再耐心这就是他把握时机，获得成功的诀窍。他常常说：“赚钱的不是想法，而是静等”。一个人需要做的，只是观察市场正在告诉他什么，并对此做出反应。答案就在市场本身，挑战来自对呈现出来的事实做出正确的解释。“时机就是一切”。在进入交易之前，最重要的是确定最小阻力线是否和你的交易方向一致。我的经验是，如果我不是在接近某个趋势的开始点才进入市场，我就绝对不会从这个趋势中获取多少利润。原因是，我错失了利润储备。有了这种勇气和耐心，他就可以静观市场变化，就可以在这次行情结束前必定不断出现的小的回落或回升面前持股不动。市场会及时向你发出什么时候进入市场的信号。同样肯定的是，市场也会及时向你发出退场的信号—如果你耐心等待的话。“罗马不是一天建成的”，真正重大的趋势不会在一天或一个星期就结束。它走完自己的逻辑过程是需要时间的。在很多时候，利弗摩尔是持币观望，直到合适的行情出现。他的很多成功就在于他能够持币观望，耐心等待，直到恰当的行情出现在他的面前。当行情出现，有很多对他有利的机会出现时，在这个时候，也只有在这个时候，他才像眼镜蛇一样，“噌”地一声窜出去。我后来的交易理论的一个关键是：只在关键点上进行交易。只要我有耐心，在关键点上进行交易，我就总能赚到钱。我还认为，一只股票的行情的最大部分，往往发生在这一次行情的最后两个星期或更长一段时间。但要记住，在使用关键点预测行情的时候如果这只股票在越过关键点之后，没有像它应该表现的那样，那就是一个需要立即引起注意的、重要的危险信号。只要我失去耐心，没有等到关键点的出现，而是像轻而易举地赚到钱，我就肯定会赔钱。另外需要注意的是：在一次行情快结束的时候，成交量大幅度增加，往往是一次真正的分配。因为股票从强手转给了弱手从专业操盘手转到了普通股民。一般股民认为成交量大幅增加是正常调整之后——不是向最高价格调整就是向最低价格调整——而出现的活跃和健康市场的一个信号，但是这种看法是没有依据的。我要向愿意把投机看成一种严肃生意的那些人说清楚，而且我希望郑重重申的是一厢情愿的想法必须清除；指望每天或每星期都投机的人，不会获得成功；你允许你自己进入交易的次数，一年可能只有四五次。在交易之前，要等待，要耐心地等待，直到尽可能多的因素都对你有利的时候，再进行交易。耐心可以使你赚到钱。不要预测或估计市场将在什么时候朝什么方向发展，这是很危险的。你必须等待市场或股票出现突破。不要估计，要等着市场来证实，不要跟报价单争论。现金过去是，现在是，将来也永远是国王。事实上，往往是那些持币观望，等到恰当时机进行交易的人，才能赚到大钱。耐心耐心再耐心，才是成功的关键。如果一个精明的投机者把握好这一点的话，时间就是他最好的朋友。掌握恰当的时机进入市场。时间不是金钱因为有时候，尽管你早早进入了市场，却不能赚到钱——时间就是时间，而资金就是资金。资金要等到恰当的时候进入市场才能赚到钱——耐心、耐心、再耐心，是成功的关键。如果没有市场的证实，不要预测，也不要采取行动。有很多次我和其他许多投机者一样，没有耐心等待肯定要发生的事情。我是人，也屈从于人的弱点。和所有的投机者一样，我也没有了耐心，失去了正确的判断，颠倒了它们的位置——在该感到害怕的时候却充满希望；在该充满希望的时候却感到恐惧。真正的趋势不会在它们开始那天就结束而一次真正的趋势是需要时间的。请记住股票永远不会太高，高到让你不能开始买进也不会低到让你不能开始卖出。但是在第一笔交易后，除非第一笔出现利润，否则别做第二笔。要等待和观察。这就是你解盘能力发挥作用的时候，让你能够判定开始的正确时机。很多事情成功与否，要看是否在完全正确的时机开始。我花了很多年才了解这一点的重要性。要点三：靠努力研究和清楚的思考赢得成功正确就是正确，错误就是错误，只做正确的事情，不要错上加错。一位极具天才的投机家曾经告诉过我：当我看见一个危险信号的时候，我不跟它争执。我躲开！几天以后，如果一切看起来还不错，我就再回来。我是这么想的，如果我正沿着铁轨往前走，看见一辆火车以每小时60英里的速度向我冲来，我会跳下铁轨让火车开过去，而不会愚蠢地站在那里不动。它开过去之后，只要我愿意，我总能再回到铁轨上来。这番话非常形象地表现了一种投机智慧令我始终不忘。奇怪的是，大多数投机者遇到的麻烦的是他们自己内心中的一些东西，使他们没有足够的勇气在他们应该平仓的时候平仓。他们犹豫不决，他们在犹豫当中，眼睁睁地看着市场朝着对自己不利的方向变动了很多个点。显然应该要做的事是在多头市场看多，在空头市场中看空。听起来很好笑，但是我必须深深了解这个一般原则，才能够把这个原则付诸实施。我花了很长的时间，才学会根据这些原则交易。解盘在这种游戏中是重要的一部分，在正确的时候开始也很重要，坚持自己的仓位也一样重要。但是，我最大的发现是一个人必须研究和评估整体状况，以便预测未来的可能性。我不再盲目地赌博，不再关心如何精通操作技巧，而是关心靠着努力研究和清楚的思考，赢得自己的成功。我也发现没有一个人能够免于犯下愚蠢操作的危险。一个人操作愚蠢，就要为愚蠢付出代价。要点四：不要与市场争高低市场包容和消化一切，它永远都是正确的，顺应市场是最明智的。我的理论是：在这些重大的趋势背后，总有一股不可抗拒的力量。知道这一点就足够了。对价格运动背后的所有原因过于好奇，不是什么好事。只要认识到趋势在什么地方出现，顺着潮流驾驭你的投机之舟，就能从中得到好处而不要跟市场争论，最重要的是，不要跟市场争个高低。大众应该始终记住股票交易的要素。一只股票上涨时，不需要花精神去解释它为什么会上涨。持续的买进，会让股价继续上涨。只要股价持续上涨，偶尔出现自然的小幅回档，跟着涨势走，大致都是相当安全的办法。但是，如果股价经过长期的稳定上升后逐渐转为开始下跌，只偶尔反弹，显然阻力最小的路线已经从向上变成向下。情形就是这样，为什么要寻找解释呢？股价下跌很可能有很好的理由，但是，这些理由只有少数人知道。他们不是把理由秘而不宣，就是反而告诉大众说这只股票很便宜。这个游戏的本质就是这样，大众应该了解，少数知道内情的人不会说出真相。简单的事实是，行情总是先发生变化，然后才有经济新闻，市场不会对经济新闻作出反应。市场是活的，它反映的是将来。贪婪和恐惧一样，都会扭曲理性。股市只讲事实，只讲现实，只讲理性，股市永远不会错，错的是交易者。要点五：股市只有一面，事实的一面亏损是交易的成本，失败并不可怕，可怕的是没有从失败中得到足够的教训。不管交易者多么有经验，他犯错做出亏损交易的可能性总是存在的。因为投机不可能百分之百安全。所谓经验就是教训比较多，比较深刻，让人心痛，让人尴尬。不痛，记不住，不痛，不会反思。事情就是这样。一个人犯错很正常，但是如果他不能从错误中吸取教训，那就真冤了。世界上没有什么东西，比亏光一切更能教会你不该做什么。等你知道不该做什么才能不亏钱时，你就开始学习该做什么才能赢钱。要是有人告诉我，说我的方法行不通，我反正也会彻底试一试，好让自己确定这一点。因为我错误的时候，只有一件事情—就是亏钱——能够让我相信我错了。我知道，总有一天我会找到错误的地方而不再犯错。只有赚钱的时候，我才算是正确，这就是投机。一个人要花很长的时间，才能从他所有错误中学到所有的教训。有人说凡事都有两面，但是股市只有一面：不是多头的一面或空头的一面，而是事实的一面。让这条通则深深地印在我的脑海里，所花费的时间，远远超过股票投机游戏中大多数比较技术层次的东西。亏钱是最不会让我困扰的事情。我认亏之后，亏损从来不会困扰我，隔天我就忘掉了。但是错误——没有认亏——却是伤害口袋和心灵的东西。要是一个人不犯错的话，他会在一个月之内拥有全世界。但是，如果他不能从错误中得到好处，他就绝对不能拥有什么好东西。要点六：控制不住自己的情绪是投机者最大的死敌交易就是理性与情感的对抗，交易需要理性的计划。我很早以前就认识到，股市从来都不是平淡无奇的。它是为愚弄大多数人、大多数时间而设计的。股市上的两种主要的情绪，希望和恐惧—希望往往是因为贪婪而产生的，而恐惧往往是因为无知而产生的。我认为，控制不住自己的情绪是投机者真正的死敌。恐惧和贪婪总是存在的，他们就藏在我们的心里。它们在市场外面等等着跳进市场来表现，等着机会大赚一把。希望对于人类的生存是至关重要的，但希望与股市上的表亲——无知、贪婪、恐惧和扭曲的理智是一样的。希望掩盖了事实而股市只认事实。结果是客观的，是最终的，就像大自然一样，是不会改变的。投机客的主要敌人总是从内心出现。人性跟希望和恐惧无法分开。在投机时，如果市场背离你，你希望每天都是最后一天—而且你要是不遵从希望，你会损失的比应有程度还多——强烈到可以媲美大大小小的开国功臣和开疆拓土的豪杰。市场照你的意思走时，你害怕明天会把你所有的利润拿走，因此你退出——退得太快了。害怕使你赚不到应赚的那么多钱。成功的交易者必须克服这两个根深蒂固的本能。他必须改变你可以称之为天性冲动的东西。他抱着希望时其实应该要害怕而在害怕时，他应该要抱着希望。他必须害怕他的亏损可能变成更大的亏损，希望他的利润可能变成更大的利润。照一般人那样在股票上赌博，绝对是错误的。记住，如果一个投资者没有自律，没有一种明确策略，没有一个简单易行的计划就会陷入情绪的陷阱。因为没有一个计划的投机者就像是一个没有战略，因而也就没有可行的作战方案的将军。要点七：绝不让亏损超过资本的10％控制你的交易，管理你的资金。除非你知道你要进行的交易在财务上是安全的，否则，绝不要进行任何交易。没有经验的投机者面临的困境，往往是为每一笔头寸付出的太多。为什么呢？因为每个人都想交易。为每笔交易付出太多是不符合人性的。人们都想在最低价时买进而在最高价时卖出。心态要平和，不要与事实争辩，不要在没有希望的时候保有希望，不要与报价机争辩，因为报价机总是正确的——在投机中没有希望的位置，没有猜测的位置，没有恐惧的位置，没有贪婪的位置、没有情绪的位置。最后，投机者在买股票的时候应该分几次买，而且每次只买一定的比例。如果我在某种情况下买进一只我看好的股票但它没有按照我所希望的那样表现，对我来说这就是卖掉这只股票的足够证据。我提出了我的10％规则——如果我在一笔交易中的损失超过10％，我就马上抛出。我凭本能抛出。实际上这不是本能而是多年来在股市上拼杀积累起来的潜意识。你必须服从你自己定的规则——不能欺骗你自己，不要拖延，不要等待！我的基本原则是，绝不让亏损超过资本的10％。要点八：大波动中赚大钱投资者最大的敌人不是市场，不是别的其他，而是投资者自己。大波动才能让你挣大钱。这里让我说一件事情：在华尔街经历了这么多年，赚了几百万美元，又亏了几百万美元之后，我想告诉你这一点：我的想法从来都没有替我赚过大钱，总是我坚持不动替我赚大钱。懂了吗？是我坚持不动！对市场判断正确丝毫不足为奇。你在多头市场里，总会找到很多一开始就做多的人而在空头市场里，也会找到很多一开始就做空的人。能够同时判断正确又坚持不动的人是很罕见的，我发现这是最难学习的一件事。但是股票作手只有确实了解这一点之后，他才能够赚大钱。这一点千真万确。作手知道如何操作之后，要赚几百万美元，比他在一无所知时想赚几百美元还容易。原因在于一个人可能看得清楚而明确，却在市场从容不迫、准备照他认为一定会走的方向走时，他变得不耐烦或怀疑起来。华尔街有这么多根本不属于傻瓜阶级的人甚至不属于第三级傻瓜的人，却都会亏钱道理就在这里。市场并没有打败他们，他们打败了自己。因为他们虽然有头脑，却无法坚持不动。我开始了解，要赚大钱一定要在大波动中赚。不管推动大波动起步的因素可能是什么，只要事实俱在，大波动就能够持续下去。这不是内线集团炒作或金融家的技巧造成的结果，而是依靠基本形势。不理会大波动，设法抢进抢出，对我来说是致命大患。没有一个人能够抓住所有的起伏。在多头市场里，你的做法就是买进和紧抱，一直到你相信多头市场即将结束时为止。要这样做，你必须研究整个大势，而不是研究明牌或影响个股的特殊因素，然后你要忘掉你所有的股票，永远忘掉！任何人所能学到一个最有帮助的事情，就是放弃尝试抓住最后一档或第一档。这两档是世界上最昂贵的东西。总计起来这两档让股友耗费了千百万美元，多到足以建筑一条横贯美洲大陆的水泥公路。一个人如果对自己的判断没有信心，在这种游戏中就走不了多远。这些大概是我学到的一切—研究整体状况，承接仓位，并且坚持下去。要点九：解开股市这个人类最大谜团的人应该得头奖投机是一场游戏，更是你自己的事业，需要持续的努力、付出和总结。炒股实际上就是玩游戏，一定要在这场游戏中获胜。好的股票交易者不能不像训练有素的职业运动员一样，他们必须养成良好的生活习惯，保持充沛的体力。驱动我的也绝不是金钱。它是一场游戏是一场解开谜团的游戏，是一场把人类历史上最伟大的头脑搞乱、搞复杂的游戏。对我来说，激情、挑战、兴奋，都在打赢这场游戏之中了。这场游戏是一个充满活力的谜语，而这个谜底就是要由我来告诉在华尔街投机的所有男男女女的。在游戏中，你的神经被推到了极限，但奖赏也是非常高的。我的事业是交易——也就是遵循眼前的事实，而不是遵循我认为别人应当会做的事情。让我给你提个醒：你的成功将与你在自己的努力中所表现出来的真心和忠诚度成正比。这种努力包括坚持自己做行情记录并自己进行思考并得出自己的结论。一个人要是想靠这个游戏过活，必须相信自己和自己的判断。没有人能靠别人告诉他要怎么做赚大钱。股市是人类发明的最大的和最复杂的谜团而解开这个谜团的人是应该得头奖的。一个人要花很长的时间，才能从他所有错误中学到所有的教训。让我们再重温一遍：有人说凡事都有两面，但是股市只有一面，不是多头的一面或空头的一面，而是事实的一面。让这条通则深深印在我的脑海里，所花费的时间，远远超过股票投机游戏中大多数比较技术层次的东西。最后，让我们以华尔街观察家理查德斯密腾的话作为结束：“谢谢你， 杰西·利弗摩尔，感谢你的智慧，感谢你所做的艰苦工作，感谢你那非凡的悟性。”","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2814,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9965530897,"gmtCreate":1669978800619,"gmtModify":1676538282011,"author":{"id":"3578208981838945","authorId":"3578208981838945","name":"211013能量飞车","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e583c75322dd4651672938ebba8683b7","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3578208981838945","idStr":"3578208981838945"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"👍","listText":"👍","text":"👍","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9965530897","repostId":"1125372710","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"1125372710","kind":"news","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"为用户提供金融资讯、行情、数据，旨在帮助投资者理解世界，做投资决策。","home_visible":1,"media_name":"老虎资讯综合","id":"102","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba"},"pubTimestamp":1669964538,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1125372710?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2022-12-02 15:02","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"Large option orders | Institutions manipulate ultra-short-term rights, and AMC cinema changes release a short squeeze signal?","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1125372710","media":"老虎资讯综合","summary":"周四的美股期权合约总成交量为40,966,020份，较前一个交易日下跌了11%。","content":"<p><html><head></head><body><b>1. Market Overview (December 1)</b></p><p>On the first trading day of December, U.S. stocks were mixed, with the Nasdaq rising slightly and the Dow falling 190 points. Investors are assessing a range of economic data and awaiting Friday's November non-farm payrolls report. The core PCE index favored by the Federal Reserve in October indicated a decline in inflationary pressures, and the ISM manufacturing index contracted for the first time since May 2020 in November.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/03e1415e73fd161b262198c1fa3b4bb9\" tg-width=\"840\" tg-height=\"470\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>In the options market, total contract volume on Thursday was 40,966,020, down 11% from the previous trading day.<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TSLA\">Tesla</a>Options trading for its electric trucks was active ahead of the market. Bullish bets on AMC theaters surge. Options trading activities of Chinese concept stocks are still active.</p><p><b>2. Total option transaction volume TOP10</b></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/cdcfa5b1f5895be547530a35a7172e6e\" tg-width=\"431\" tg-height=\"820\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>The S&P Nasdaq ETF still ranks among the top two in options trading. This situation seems ordinary, but combined with the recent market situation, it has a different taste-<b>Some people believe that this is inseparable from the fact that professional institutional traders are conducting a large number of options intraday trading.</b></p><p>According to data vendor OptionMetrics,<b>At present, the intraday trading volume of options tracking the S&P 500 index has reached a record high. The average daily trading volume in November was about 1.5 million, more than twice the volume in January this year and four times the volume in early 2020.</b></p><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/GS\">Goldman Sachs</a>Strategist Rocky Fishman said recently,<b>Ultra-short-term options have been \"the area with the strongest volume growth\". He estimates that intraday trading accounted for about 44% of S&P 500 options traded in the third and fourth quarters of this year.</b>At first Wall Street strategists thought that options day trading was mainly driven by individual investors, but according to<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/JPM\">JPMorgan Chase</a>According to the research results, in the intraday trading of options against the S&P 500 index, personal accounts accounted for only 5.6%.</p><p>Options day trading can gain exposure from intraday volatility, where the option seller charges a premium and assumes price risk for a relatively short period of time.</p><p>The reason why intraday trading of options is linked to volatile market conditions is,<b>It is considered that market makers who sell options contracts will hedge their positions to avoid betting on the direction of the market, and sometimes this hedging will accelerate market changes.</b>For example, after market makers sell a large number of stock index call options and the S&P 500 index rises, then they can hedge by buying S&P 500 index futures. There is a view that index futures trading will in turn affect stock prices.</p><p><b>Some financial institutions try to \"weaponize\" this trading method and influence the market trend by \"amplifying and squeezing\" expectations.</b></p><p><b>3. Observation of changes</b></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e2945068cb8671a5a30c6064583386da\" tg-width=\"437\" tg-height=\"837\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p>In terms of changes,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BABA\">Alibaba</a>Option change orders topped the list.<b>Particularly noteworthy, though, are the new ones on the list<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AMC\">AMC Cinemas</a>, but its shares soared 27% on Thursday, their biggest gain since May 12, and closed up 13%.</b></p><p>Thursday,<b>AMC Cinemas has traded three times the last 20-day average!</b>Volume was particularly high for CALL Option with a strike price of $8 expiring Dec. 2, with 80,218 contracts trading. In addition, apewisdom shows that AMC Cinemas has been mentioned 138 times on Reddit's WSB page in the past 24 hours, a surge of 626%, ranking third.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d6888b24b5a1fcafb3b5ef68d4d7f80d\" tg-width=\"1000\" tg-height=\"305\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>As the leading brother in the \"retail short squeeze\", is AMC cinema going to set off another storm?</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/70446820d7d21c8a8d24fa95bf1cd3c0\" tg-width=\"840\" tg-height=\"470\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p></body></html></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Large option orders | Institutions manipulate ultra-short-term rights, and AMC cinema changes release a short squeeze signal?</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nLarge option orders | Institutions manipulate ultra-short-term rights, and AMC cinema changes release a short squeeze signal?\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/102\">\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">老虎资讯综合 </p>\n<p class=\"h-time smaller\">2022-12-02 15:02</p>\n</div>\n</a>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><html><head></head><body><b>1. Market Overview (December 1)</b></p><p>On the first trading day of December, U.S. stocks were mixed, with the Nasdaq rising slightly and the Dow falling 190 points. Investors are assessing a range of economic data and awaiting Friday's November non-farm payrolls report. The core PCE index favored by the Federal Reserve in October indicated a decline in inflationary pressures, and the ISM manufacturing index contracted for the first time since May 2020 in November.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/03e1415e73fd161b262198c1fa3b4bb9\" tg-width=\"840\" tg-height=\"470\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>In the options market, total contract volume on Thursday was 40,966,020, down 11% from the previous trading day.<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TSLA\">Tesla</a>Options trading for its electric trucks was active ahead of the market. Bullish bets on AMC theaters surge. Options trading activities of Chinese concept stocks are still active.</p><p><b>2. Total option transaction volume TOP10</b></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/cdcfa5b1f5895be547530a35a7172e6e\" tg-width=\"431\" tg-height=\"820\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>The S&P Nasdaq ETF still ranks among the top two in options trading. This situation seems ordinary, but combined with the recent market situation, it has a different taste-<b>Some people believe that this is inseparable from the fact that professional institutional traders are conducting a large number of options intraday trading.</b></p><p>According to data vendor OptionMetrics,<b>At present, the intraday trading volume of options tracking the S&P 500 index has reached a record high. The average daily trading volume in November was about 1.5 million, more than twice the volume in January this year and four times the volume in early 2020.</b></p><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/GS\">Goldman Sachs</a>Strategist Rocky Fishman said recently,<b>Ultra-short-term options have been \"the area with the strongest volume growth\". He estimates that intraday trading accounted for about 44% of S&P 500 options traded in the third and fourth quarters of this year.</b>At first Wall Street strategists thought that options day trading was mainly driven by individual investors, but according to<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/JPM\">JPMorgan Chase</a>According to the research results, in the intraday trading of options against the S&P 500 index, personal accounts accounted for only 5.6%.</p><p>Options day trading can gain exposure from intraday volatility, where the option seller charges a premium and assumes price risk for a relatively short period of time.</p><p>The reason why intraday trading of options is linked to volatile market conditions is,<b>It is considered that market makers who sell options contracts will hedge their positions to avoid betting on the direction of the market, and sometimes this hedging will accelerate market changes.</b>For example, after market makers sell a large number of stock index call options and the S&P 500 index rises, then they can hedge by buying S&P 500 index futures. There is a view that index futures trading will in turn affect stock prices.</p><p><b>Some financial institutions try to \"weaponize\" this trading method and influence the market trend by \"amplifying and squeezing\" expectations.</b></p><p><b>3. Observation of changes</b></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e2945068cb8671a5a30c6064583386da\" tg-width=\"437\" tg-height=\"837\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p>In terms of changes,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BABA\">Alibaba</a>Option change orders topped the list.<b>Particularly noteworthy, though, are the new ones on the list<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AMC\">AMC Cinemas</a>, but its shares soared 27% on Thursday, their biggest gain since May 12, and closed up 13%.</b></p><p>Thursday,<b>AMC Cinemas has traded three times the last 20-day average!</b>Volume was particularly high for CALL Option with a strike price of $8 expiring Dec. 2, with 80,218 contracts trading. In addition, apewisdom shows that AMC Cinemas has been mentioned 138 times on Reddit's WSB page in the past 24 hours, a surge of 626%, ranking third.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d6888b24b5a1fcafb3b5ef68d4d7f80d\" tg-width=\"1000\" tg-height=\"305\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>As the leading brother in the \"retail short squeeze\", is AMC cinema going to set off another storm?</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/70446820d7d21c8a8d24fa95bf1cd3c0\" tg-width=\"840\" tg-height=\"470\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p></body></html></p>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/55eb327f580527889cf30bafa92692ae","relate_stocks":{"SPY":"标普500ETF","QQQ":"纳指100ETF"},"source_url":"","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1125372710","content_text":"一、市场概览 （12月1日）12月首个交易日，美股涨跌不一，纳指微涨，道指下跌190点。投资者正在评估一系列经济数据，并等待周五的11月非农就业报告。美联储青睐的10月核心PCE指数表明通胀压力下降，11月ISM制造业指数出现2020年5月份以来的首次萎缩。在期权市场方面，周四的合约总成交量为40,966,020份，较前一个交易日下跌了11%。特斯拉的期权交易在其电动卡车上市前非常活跃。对AMC院线的看涨押注激增。中概股的期权交易活动依然活跃。二、期权成交总量TOP10标普及纳指ETF的期权交易依然排在前两位。这种情况看似平常，但结合近期市场情况来分析，就有了不同的味道——有观点认为，这与专业机构交易员正进行大量期权日内交易有分不开的关系。根据数据供应商OptionMetrics，目前追踪标普500指数的期权日内交易成交量已经达到创纪录高位，11月的日均成交量约为150万笔，是今年1月份的两倍多，更是2020年初交易量的四倍之多。高盛策略师Rocky Fishman近日表示，超短期期权一直是“交易量增长最强劲的领域”。他估计，在今年第三和第四季度交易的标普500指数期权中，日内交易的占比达到约44%。起初华尔街策略师以为期权日内交易主要由个人投资者推动的，但按照摩根大通的研究结果，在针对标普500指数的期权日内交易中，个人账户的占比仅为5.6%。期权日内交易可以从盘中波动获得风险敞口，其中期权卖方收取溢价，并在相对较短的时间内承担价格风险。而之所以会将期权日内交易和波动行情联系在一起，是考虑到卖出期权合约的做市商会对冲头寸以避免押注市场走向，而有时这种对冲将会加速行情变化。比如在做市商大量出售股指看涨期权之后，标普500指数上涨，那么他们就可以通过购买标普500指数期货来进行对冲。对此有观点认为，指数期货交易会反过来影响股价。部分金融机构试图将这种交易方式“武器化”，以“放大和榨取”预期的方式来左右市场走势。三、异动观察异动方面，阿里巴巴期权异动单登上榜首。不过，特别值得注意的是新上榜的AMC院线，但其股价周四一度飙升27%，创下5月12日以来的最大涨幅，收盘上涨13%。周四，AMC院线的看涨期权交易量是过去20天平均水平的三倍！12月2日到期的行权价8美元的CALL Option成交量尤其高，有80,218份合约交易。此外，apewisdom显示，AMC院线在过去24小时内在Reddit的WSB页面被提及138次，暴增626%，排名第三。作为“散户逼空”中的带头大哥，AMC院线是不是又要掀起一场风暴？","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"SPY":0.9,"QQQ":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2119,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9968860584,"gmtCreate":1669177185248,"gmtModify":1676538163166,"author":{"id":"3578208981838945","authorId":"3578208981838945","name":"211013能量飞车","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e583c75322dd4651672938ebba8683b7","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3578208981838945","idStr":"3578208981838945"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"👍","listText":"👍","text":"👍","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9968860584","repostId":"2285893756","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":3521,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9985943018,"gmtCreate":1667302930734,"gmtModify":1676537894351,"author":{"id":"3578208981838945","authorId":"3578208981838945","name":"211013能量飞车","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e583c75322dd4651672938ebba8683b7","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3578208981838945","idStr":"3578208981838945"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"👍","listText":"👍","text":"👍","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9985943018","repostId":"2279138461","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2310,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9998395301,"gmtCreate":1660933738808,"gmtModify":1676536425443,"author":{"id":"3578208981838945","authorId":"3578208981838945","name":"211013能量飞车","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e583c75322dd4651672938ebba8683b7","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3578208981838945","idStr":"3578208981838945"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/OXY\">$西方石油(OXY)$</a>🚀🚀🚀🎁🎁🎁💤💰💰💰","listText":"<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/OXY\">$西方石油(OXY)$</a>🚀🚀🚀🎁🎁🎁💤💰💰💰","text":"$西方石油(OXY)$🚀🚀🚀🎁🎁🎁💤💰💰💰","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9998395301","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2429,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9999954773,"gmtCreate":1660454100494,"gmtModify":1676533474384,"author":{"id":"3578208981838945","authorId":"3578208981838945","name":"211013能量飞车","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e583c75322dd4651672938ebba8683b7","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3578208981838945","idStr":"3578208981838945"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"👍","listText":"👍","text":"👍","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9999954773","repostId":"1172206517","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1172206517","kind":"news","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"为用户提供金融资讯、行情、数据，旨在帮助投资者理解世界，做投资决策。","home_visible":1,"media_name":"老虎资讯综合","id":"102","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba"},"pubTimestamp":1660349729,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1172206517?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2022-08-13 08:15","market":"hk","language":"zh","title":"Last night and this morning | The S&P Nasdaq has risen for 4 consecutive weeks! The latest 13F position exposure","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1172206517","media":"老虎资讯综合","summary":"美股收高，标普与纳指连续第四周上涨；美国国会众议院投票通过通胀削减法案；知名机构景林、文艺复兴Q2美股持仓曝光；5家中企宣布启动美股退市>>>海外市场收盘：美股周五收高，标普与纳指连续第四周上涨美股周","content":"<p><html><head></head><body>U.S. stocks closed higher, with the S&P and Nasdaq rising for the fourth consecutive week; The U.S. House of Representatives voted to pass the Inflation Reduction Act; Well-known institutions Jinglin and Renaissance Q2 US stock positions were exposed; 5 Chinese companies announced the launch of US stock delisting > > ><b>Overseas Market</b></p><p><b>Closing: U.S. stocks closed higher on Friday, with S&P and Nasdaq rising for fourth consecutive week</b></p><p>U.S. stocks closed higher on Friday, with all three major stock indexes recording gains this week. The Dow rose 424.38 points, or 1.27%, to 33761.05 points; The Nasdaq rose 267.27 points, or 2.09%, to 13047.19 points; The S&P 500 rose 72.88 points, or 1.73%, to 4,280.15 points. All three major U.S. stock indexes recorded gains this week, with the Dow rising 2.92%, the Nasdaq rising 3.08%, and the S&P 500 rising 3.26%. The Nasdaq and S&P 500 both recorded their fourth consecutive weekly gains.</p><p><b>Popular Chinese concept stocks closed mixed on Friday</b></p><p>Popular Chinese concept stocks were mixed,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NIO\">Nio</a>Up 1.39%,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/EDU\">New Oriental</a>Up 0.92%,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BIDU\">Baidu</a>Up 0.70%,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TME\">Tencent Music</a>Up 0.23%,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/JD\">JD.com</a>Up 0.19%,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BABA\">Alibaba</a>Down 0.11%,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/LI\">Li Auto</a>Down 0.67%,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/XPEV\">XPeng vehicles</a>Down 0.81%,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TAL\">TAL</a>Down 1.07%,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/PDD\">Pinduoduo</a>Down 1.65%.</p><p><b>U.S. WTI crude futures closed down 2.4% on Friday</b></p><p>The market expects the disruption of crude oil supply in the U.S. Gulf of Mexico to be short-term, while recession fears cloud the demand outlook. The price of West Texas Intermediate crude oil (WTI) futures for September delivery on the New York Mercantile Exchange closed down $2.25, or 2.4%, at $92.09 a barrel.</p><p><b>Gold futures closed 0.5% higher in New York on Friday, as gold prices recorded their fourth straight weekly gain this week</b></p><p>Gold futures prices closed higher on Friday in New York, shrugging off morning losses and recording their fourth straight weekly gains. Gold futures for December delivery on the New York Mercantile Exchange rose $8.3, or 0.46%, to close at $1,815.50 an ounce. Gold futures prices rose 1.36% this week, recording the fourth consecutive week of gains and setting a record for the longest winning streak since December 31, 2021.</p><p><b>International macro</b></p><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/NW/2259727570\" target=\"_blank\"><b>US House of Representatives votes to pass inflation reduction bill</b></a></p><p>The U.S. House of Representatives voted 220 in favor and 207 against to pass the Inflation Reduction Act of 2022. The contents of the bill include tackling climate change and expanding health care coverage. The next step of the bill will be signed by President Biden.</p><p><b>U.S. Senate Democrats: SEC should step up efforts to crack down on insider trading by corporate executives</b></p><p>On Friday local time, Warren and other Senate Democrats sent a letter to SEC Chairman Gary Gensler, saying that the SEC should act quickly to strengthen its rules and cannot allow corporate insiders to use inside information to conduct transactions without being punished. continues to happen.</p><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/NW/2259357721\" target=\"_blank\"><b>US media: Former US President Trump is suspected of violating the Espionage Act</b></a></p><p>According to court records released on August 12, local time, federal law enforcement agencies suspected that former President Trump violated the Espionage Act and other relevant laws, and therefore obtained a search warrant for his Mar-a-Lago, Fla.</p><p><b>Company News</b></p><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/NW/1119741216\" target=\"_blank\"><b>Jinglin Q2 US stock holdings: Keike rose to the largest holding Alibaba and Pinduoduo returned to the top ten holdings</b></a><b></b></p><p>On Friday morning, local time in the United States, Jinglin, a well-known private equity firm in China, disclosed its position report (Form 13F) as of June 30th. In the second quarter when the market fluctuated violently, the fund also launched an obvious position exchange operation. According to the company's disclosure, Jinglin's overall holdings at the end of the first quarter were US $2.244 billion, a slight decrease from the previous quarter, and the concentration of the top ten holdings remained at 78.18%.</p><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/NW/2259727587\" target=\"_blank\"><b>Renaissance more than tripled its position in Nio last quarter, reduced its holdings in Tesla</b></a></p><p>Renaissance increased its holdings of Nio Automobile ADR (increased by 229%),<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/CVX\">Chevron</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BRK.A\">Berkshire</a>Hathaway Class B shares,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MPC\">Marathon Oil</a>Waiting for 1963 stocks. Reduce holdings in Tesla, AMD, Moderna,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/WFC\">Wells Fargo</a>Waiting for 1490 stocks. Awkward holdings include Microsoft, Meta,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AAPL\">Apple</a>, Chevron. Build a position to go long Microsoft,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/GS\">Goldman Sachs</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AMAT\">Applied Materials</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/C\">Citigroup</a>Wait for 706 stocks. Clearance Amazon,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/GOOGL\">Google A</a>And Google C,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/PFE\">Pfizer</a>Pharmaceutical,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/QCOM\">Qualcomm</a>Wait for 567 stocks.</p><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/NW/2259150742\" target=\"_blank\"><b>Another U.S. retail giant is laying off staff! Best Buy cuts'hundreds' of jobs over the past week, report says</b></a></p><p>Best Buy, the nation's largest consumer electronics retailer, is cutting jobs across the U.S. to cut costs and boost profits, media reported Friday, citing people familiar with the matter. According to the report, Best Buy has laid off \"hundreds of jobs\" across the United States in the past week. The company reduced headcount at its retail stores, while also cutting positions for some employees who help customers plan and buy home entertainment layouts.</p><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/NW/2259747544\" target=\"_blank\"><b>Interactive fitness platform Peloton announces nearly 800 layoffs, closing a large number of stores and raising product prices</b></a></p><p>Peloton, the world's largest interactive fitness platform, told employees on Friday that it will cut about 780 jobs, close a large number of retail stores and raise the price of some equipment to reduce costs and become profitable. The company did not specify how many of the 86 retail stores it plans to close, but said it plans to \"aggressively\" reduce from 2023.</p><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/NW/2258719062\" target=\"_blank\"><b>Five Chinese companies announced the start of delisting from the United States. What does it mean? What are the implications?</b></a></p><p>In terms of Chinese concept stocks, five Chinese companies, PetroChina, Sinopec, China Life, Chinalco, and Shanghai Petrochemical, announced that they would delist their depositary shares from the New York Stock Exchange. In response, the new york Stock Exchange said it had \"no comment\" on this matter. As of Friday's close, PetroChina closed down 1.65%, Sinopec fell 1.8%, Chinalco fell 0.76%, China Life fell 1.46%, and Shanghai Petrochemical fell 1.06%.</p><p></body></html></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Last night and this morning | The S&P Nasdaq has risen for 4 consecutive weeks! The latest 13F position exposure</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nLast night and this morning | The S&P Nasdaq has risen for 4 consecutive weeks! The latest 13F position exposure\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/102\">\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">老虎资讯综合 </p>\n<p class=\"h-time smaller\">2022-08-13 08:15</p>\n</div>\n</a>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><html><head></head><body>U.S. stocks closed higher, with the S&P and Nasdaq rising for the fourth consecutive week; The U.S. House of Representatives voted to pass the Inflation Reduction Act; Well-known institutions Jinglin and Renaissance Q2 US stock positions were exposed; 5 Chinese companies announced the launch of US stock delisting > > ><b>Overseas Market</b></p><p><b>Closing: U.S. stocks closed higher on Friday, with S&P and Nasdaq rising for fourth consecutive week</b></p><p>U.S. stocks closed higher on Friday, with all three major stock indexes recording gains this week. The Dow rose 424.38 points, or 1.27%, to 33761.05 points; The Nasdaq rose 267.27 points, or 2.09%, to 13047.19 points; The S&P 500 rose 72.88 points, or 1.73%, to 4,280.15 points. All three major U.S. stock indexes recorded gains this week, with the Dow rising 2.92%, the Nasdaq rising 3.08%, and the S&P 500 rising 3.26%. The Nasdaq and S&P 500 both recorded their fourth consecutive weekly gains.</p><p><b>Popular Chinese concept stocks closed mixed on Friday</b></p><p>Popular Chinese concept stocks were mixed,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NIO\">Nio</a>Up 1.39%,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/EDU\">New Oriental</a>Up 0.92%,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BIDU\">Baidu</a>Up 0.70%,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TME\">Tencent Music</a>Up 0.23%,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/JD\">JD.com</a>Up 0.19%,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BABA\">Alibaba</a>Down 0.11%,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/LI\">Li Auto</a>Down 0.67%,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/XPEV\">XPeng vehicles</a>Down 0.81%,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TAL\">TAL</a>Down 1.07%,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/PDD\">Pinduoduo</a>Down 1.65%.</p><p><b>U.S. WTI crude futures closed down 2.4% on Friday</b></p><p>The market expects the disruption of crude oil supply in the U.S. Gulf of Mexico to be short-term, while recession fears cloud the demand outlook. The price of West Texas Intermediate crude oil (WTI) futures for September delivery on the New York Mercantile Exchange closed down $2.25, or 2.4%, at $92.09 a barrel.</p><p><b>Gold futures closed 0.5% higher in New York on Friday, as gold prices recorded their fourth straight weekly gain this week</b></p><p>Gold futures prices closed higher on Friday in New York, shrugging off morning losses and recording their fourth straight weekly gains. Gold futures for December delivery on the New York Mercantile Exchange rose $8.3, or 0.46%, to close at $1,815.50 an ounce. Gold futures prices rose 1.36% this week, recording the fourth consecutive week of gains and setting a record for the longest winning streak since December 31, 2021.</p><p><b>International macro</b></p><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/NW/2259727570\" target=\"_blank\"><b>US House of Representatives votes to pass inflation reduction bill</b></a></p><p>The U.S. House of Representatives voted 220 in favor and 207 against to pass the Inflation Reduction Act of 2022. The contents of the bill include tackling climate change and expanding health care coverage. The next step of the bill will be signed by President Biden.</p><p><b>U.S. Senate Democrats: SEC should step up efforts to crack down on insider trading by corporate executives</b></p><p>On Friday local time, Warren and other Senate Democrats sent a letter to SEC Chairman Gary Gensler, saying that the SEC should act quickly to strengthen its rules and cannot allow corporate insiders to use inside information to conduct transactions without being punished. continues to happen.</p><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/NW/2259357721\" target=\"_blank\"><b>US media: Former US President Trump is suspected of violating the Espionage Act</b></a></p><p>According to court records released on August 12, local time, federal law enforcement agencies suspected that former President Trump violated the Espionage Act and other relevant laws, and therefore obtained a search warrant for his Mar-a-Lago, Fla.</p><p><b>Company News</b></p><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/NW/1119741216\" target=\"_blank\"><b>Jinglin Q2 US stock holdings: Keike rose to the largest holding Alibaba and Pinduoduo returned to the top ten holdings</b></a><b></b></p><p>On Friday morning, local time in the United States, Jinglin, a well-known private equity firm in China, disclosed its position report (Form 13F) as of June 30th. In the second quarter when the market fluctuated violently, the fund also launched an obvious position exchange operation. According to the company's disclosure, Jinglin's overall holdings at the end of the first quarter were US $2.244 billion, a slight decrease from the previous quarter, and the concentration of the top ten holdings remained at 78.18%.</p><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/NW/2259727587\" target=\"_blank\"><b>Renaissance more than tripled its position in Nio last quarter, reduced its holdings in Tesla</b></a></p><p>Renaissance increased its holdings of Nio Automobile ADR (increased by 229%),<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/CVX\">Chevron</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BRK.A\">Berkshire</a>Hathaway Class B shares,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MPC\">Marathon Oil</a>Waiting for 1963 stocks. Reduce holdings in Tesla, AMD, Moderna,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/WFC\">Wells Fargo</a>Waiting for 1490 stocks. Awkward holdings include Microsoft, Meta,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AAPL\">Apple</a>, Chevron. Build a position to go long Microsoft,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/GS\">Goldman Sachs</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AMAT\">Applied Materials</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/C\">Citigroup</a>Wait for 706 stocks. Clearance Amazon,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/GOOGL\">Google A</a>And Google C,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/PFE\">Pfizer</a>Pharmaceutical,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/QCOM\">Qualcomm</a>Wait for 567 stocks.</p><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/NW/2259150742\" target=\"_blank\"><b>Another U.S. retail giant is laying off staff! Best Buy cuts'hundreds' of jobs over the past week, report says</b></a></p><p>Best Buy, the nation's largest consumer electronics retailer, is cutting jobs across the U.S. to cut costs and boost profits, media reported Friday, citing people familiar with the matter. According to the report, Best Buy has laid off \"hundreds of jobs\" across the United States in the past week. The company reduced headcount at its retail stores, while also cutting positions for some employees who help customers plan and buy home entertainment layouts.</p><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/NW/2259747544\" target=\"_blank\"><b>Interactive fitness platform Peloton announces nearly 800 layoffs, closing a large number of stores and raising product prices</b></a></p><p>Peloton, the world's largest interactive fitness platform, told employees on Friday that it will cut about 780 jobs, close a large number of retail stores and raise the price of some equipment to reduce costs and become profitable. The company did not specify how many of the 86 retail stores it plans to close, but said it plans to \"aggressively\" reduce from 2023.</p><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/NW/2258719062\" target=\"_blank\"><b>Five Chinese companies announced the start of delisting from the United States. What does it mean? What are the implications?</b></a></p><p>In terms of Chinese concept stocks, five Chinese companies, PetroChina, Sinopec, China Life, Chinalco, and Shanghai Petrochemical, announced that they would delist their depositary shares from the New York Stock Exchange. In response, the new york Stock Exchange said it had \"no comment\" on this matter. As of Friday's close, PetroChina closed down 1.65%, Sinopec fell 1.8%, Chinalco fell 0.76%, China Life fell 1.46%, and Shanghai Petrochemical fell 1.06%.</p><p></body></html></p>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b23574aac95526c9e5c62ebc8dd25130","relate_stocks":{".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite",".DJI":"道琼斯",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index"},"source_url":"","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1172206517","content_text":"美股收高，标普与纳指连续第四周上涨；美国国会众议院投票通过通胀削减法案；知名机构景林、文艺复兴Q2美股持仓曝光；5家中企宣布启动美股退市>>>海外市场收盘：美股周五收高，标普与纳指连续第四周上涨美股周五收高，三大股指本周均录得涨幅。道指涨424.38点，涨幅为1.27%，报33761.05点；纳指涨267.27点，涨幅为2.09%，报13047.19点；标普500指数涨72.88点，涨幅为1.73%，报4280.15点。本周美股三大股指均录得涨幅，道指上涨2.92%，纳指上涨3.08%，标普500指数上涨3.26%。纳指与标普500指数均录得连续第四周上涨。热门中概股周五收盘涨跌不一热门中概股涨跌不一，蔚来涨1.39%，新东方涨0.92%，百度涨0.70%，腾讯音乐涨0.23%，京东涨0.19%，阿里巴巴跌0.11%，理想汽车跌0.67%，小鹏汽车跌0.81%，好未来跌1.07%，拼多多跌1.65%。周五美国WTI原油期货收跌2.4%市场预期美国墨西哥湾的原油供应中断将是短期的，而对经济衰退的担忧使需求前景蒙上阴影。纽约商品交易所9月交割的西德州中质原油（WTI）期货价格收跌2.25美元，跌幅为2.4%，收于每桶92.09美元。周五纽约黄金期货收高0.5%，本周金价录得连续第四周上涨纽约黄金期货价格周五收高，摆脱了早间的跌幅，并录得连续第四周上涨。纽约商品交易所12月交割的黄金期货上涨8.3美元，涨幅为0.46%，报收于每盎司1815.50美元。本周黄金期货价格累涨1.36%，录得连续第四周上涨，创2021年12月31以来的最长连涨纪录。国际宏观美国国会众议院投票通过通胀削减法案美国众议院以220票赞成、207票反对的投票结果通过2022年通胀削减法案（Inflation Reduction Act）。该法案的内容包括应对气候变化和扩大医疗保健覆盖范围等。下一步法案将由总统拜登签字正式生效。美参议院民主党人：SEC应加大力度打击企业高管内幕交易当地时间周五，沃伦等参议院民主党人致信SEC主席加里·詹斯勒称，SEC应该迅速采取行动，加强其规则，不能允许企业内部人士利用内幕信息进行交易，却不用受惩罚的情况继续发生。美媒：美国前总统特朗普涉嫌违反《反间谍法》根据当地时间8月12日公布的法庭记录显示，联邦执法部门怀疑前总统特朗普违反了《反间谍法》（Espionage Act）和其他相关法律，并因此获得对其佛罗里达州海湖庄园的搜查令。公司新闻景林Q2美股持仓：贝壳升至第一大重仓股 阿里、拼多多重回前十大持仓美国当地时间周五早晨，中国知名私募景林披露了截至6月30日的持仓报告（13F表），在市场剧烈波动的二季度基金也展开了明显的换仓操作。根据公司披露，一季度末景林整体持仓规模为22.44亿美元，较前一季度略有下滑，前十大持仓的集中度维持在78.18%。文艺复兴上季度对蔚来持仓增加逾两倍，减持特斯拉文艺复兴增持蔚来汽车ADR（增持达229%）、雪佛龙、伯克希尔哈撒韦B类股、马拉松石油等1963只股票。减持特斯拉、AMD、莫德纳、富国银行等1490只股票。重仓股包括微软、Meta、苹果、雪佛龙。建仓做多微软、高盛、应用材料、花旗等706只股票。清仓亚马逊、谷歌A和谷歌C、辉瑞制药、高通等567只股票。又一家美国零售巨头裁员！报道称百思买过去一周裁员“数百人”媒体周五援引知情人士的话报道称，美国最大消费电子零售商百思买正在美国各地裁员，以削减成本并提高利润。报道称，百思买过去一周在全美范围内裁员“数百人”。该公司减少了其零售店的员工人数，同时还削减了一些帮助客户规划和购买家庭娱乐布局的员工的职位。互动健身平台Peloton宣布裁员近800人，关闭大量门店并提高产品价格全球最大互动健身平台Peloton周五告诉员工，该公司将裁员约780人、关闭大量零售门店，并提高部分设备的价格，以降低成本并实现盈利。该公司没有具体说明计划在86家零售店中关闭多少家，但表示计划从2023年开始“积极”减少。5家中国企业宣布启动自美退市，意味着什幺？有何影响？中概股方面，中国石油、中国石化、中国人寿、中国铝业、上海石化5家中企宣布，将其存托股自纽交所退市。对此，纽约证券交易所表示，对此事“不予置评”。截至周五收盘，中国石油收跌1.65%，中国石化跌1.8%，中国铝业跌0.76%，中国人寿下跌1.46%，上海石化跌1.06%。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{".IXIC":0.9,".DJI":0.9,".SPX":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2370,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9904031246,"gmtCreate":1659955654188,"gmtModify":1703476344039,"author":{"id":"3578208981838945","authorId":"3578208981838945","name":"211013能量飞车","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e583c75322dd4651672938ebba8683b7","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3578208981838945","idStr":"3578208981838945"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"👍","listText":"👍","text":"👍","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9904031246","repostId":"1197273564","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":980,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9906089816,"gmtCreate":1659453735438,"gmtModify":1705980520279,"author":{"id":"3578208981838945","authorId":"3578208981838945","name":"211013能量飞车","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e583c75322dd4651672938ebba8683b7","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3578208981838945","idStr":"3578208981838945"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"👍","listText":"👍","text":"👍","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9906089816","repostId":"685942378","repostType":1,"repost":{"id":685942378,"gmtCreate":1659324600000,"gmtModify":1676533404243,"author":{"id":"9000000000000013","authorId":"9000000000000013","name":"时代之","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"9000000000000013","idStr":"9000000000000013"},"themes":[],"title":"哎！又回去了","htmlText":"每個工作日11:30，我們準時相見&nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp;&nbsp; ✎昨天，我們公佈了7月的採購經理人指數PMI，只有49，再次低於50，跌回了衰退區間。這意味着6月份的反彈戛然而止。4月和5月，我們還可以說是疫情導致，那麼7月呢？放心，經濟學家們總能找到解釋，他們說是因爲高溫，導致能源和電力消耗過高。實際上，比起去年11月缺煤的時候，我們的電力還沒有那麼緊張。去年電力最緊張是時候，很多城市拉閘限電，相信大家都看到過一篇\"限電是一盤大旗”的文章，當時我還專門寫文章反駁過。其實，對於7月PMI這樣的結果，我並不感到意外。之前7月上半月兩個重磅市場數據出來的時候，就大概可以推算出來了。第一個是汽車銷售增速。6月份因爲上海宣佈恢復正常經濟秩序，加上600億購置稅補貼，以及各地自行出臺的刺激措施，汽車銷量環比大幅增長。但是在7月上旬，銷量增速就下來了，整個市場回到了5月前的平均水平。另外一個就是房地產的銷售數據，一些第三方研究機構，基本上每週都會公佈一些大城市的成交數據。在7月前三週，這個數據，也跌回到了5月份的水平。至於消費，或者說服務業，今年從來就沒有大幅好轉，所以本身也就沒有什麼指望，我們大力押注的還是新能源、汽車和房地產，甚至連基建都沒有發力。目前，我們的貨幣政策，已經兩個月沒有變化了，以前每個季度降息或者降準一次的節奏，不知道是否會打破。這是一個讓我感到比較迷茫的地方。現在美聯儲的加息節奏預計會放緩，美聯儲主席鮑威爾暗示通脹見頂（這次是非常有可能不會再次打臉的），10年期美債收益和我們的10年期國債收益已經解除了倒掛。以前倒掛的時候，我們都可以保持寬鬆節奏，現在本來是空間進一步打開了，但是節奏似乎反而放緩了----央行近一個月，都是不斷通過小規模的逆回購，在收緊短期的流動性，這讓我極爲不解。另外，上週的重磅會議上，對疫情防控和經濟發展定調了，原則上是統","listText":"每個工作日11:30，我們準時相見&nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp;&nbsp; ✎昨天，我們公佈了7月的採購經理人指數PMI，只有49，再次低於50，跌回了衰退區間。這意味着6月份的反彈戛然而止。4月和5月，我們還可以說是疫情導致，那麼7月呢？放心，經濟學家們總能找到解釋，他們說是因爲高溫，導致能源和電力消耗過高。實際上，比起去年11月缺煤的時候，我們的電力還沒有那麼緊張。去年電力最緊張是時候，很多城市拉閘限電，相信大家都看到過一篇\"限電是一盤大旗”的文章，當時我還專門寫文章反駁過。其實，對於7月PMI這樣的結果，我並不感到意外。之前7月上半月兩個重磅市場數據出來的時候，就大概可以推算出來了。第一個是汽車銷售增速。6月份因爲上海宣佈恢復正常經濟秩序，加上600億購置稅補貼，以及各地自行出臺的刺激措施，汽車銷量環比大幅增長。但是在7月上旬，銷量增速就下來了，整個市場回到了5月前的平均水平。另外一個就是房地產的銷售數據，一些第三方研究機構，基本上每週都會公佈一些大城市的成交數據。在7月前三週，這個數據，也跌回到了5月份的水平。至於消費，或者說服務業，今年從來就沒有大幅好轉，所以本身也就沒有什麼指望，我們大力押注的還是新能源、汽車和房地產，甚至連基建都沒有發力。目前，我們的貨幣政策，已經兩個月沒有變化了，以前每個季度降息或者降準一次的節奏，不知道是否會打破。這是一個讓我感到比較迷茫的地方。現在美聯儲的加息節奏預計會放緩，美聯儲主席鮑威爾暗示通脹見頂（這次是非常有可能不會再次打臉的），10年期美債收益和我們的10年期國債收益已經解除了倒掛。以前倒掛的時候，我們都可以保持寬鬆節奏，現在本來是空間進一步打開了，但是節奏似乎反而放緩了----央行近一個月，都是不斷通過小規模的逆回購，在收緊短期的流動性，這讓我極爲不解。另外，上週的重磅會議上，對疫情防控和經濟發展定調了，原則上是統","text":"每個工作日11:30，我們準時相見 ✎昨天，我們公佈了7月的採購經理人指數PMI，只有49，再次低於50，跌回了衰退區間。這意味着6月份的反彈戛然而止。4月和5月，我們還可以說是疫情導致，那麼7月呢？放心，經濟學家們總能找到解釋，他們說是因爲高溫，導致能源和電力消耗過高。實際上，比起去年11月缺煤的時候，我們的電力還沒有那麼緊張。去年電力最緊張是時候，很多城市拉閘限電，相信大家都看到過一篇\"限電是一盤大旗”的文章，當時我還專門寫文章反駁過。其實，對於7月PMI這樣的結果，我並不感到意外。之前7月上半月兩個重磅市場數據出來的時候，就大概可以推算出來了。第一個是汽車銷售增速。6月份因爲上海宣佈恢復正常經濟秩序，加上600億購置稅補貼，以及各地自行出臺的刺激措施，汽車銷量環比大幅增長。但是在7月上旬，銷量增速就下來了，整個市場回到了5月前的平均水平。另外一個就是房地產的銷售數據，一些第三方研究機構，基本上每週都會公佈一些大城市的成交數據。在7月前三週，這個數據，也跌回到了5月份的水平。至於消費，或者說服務業，今年從來就沒有大幅好轉，所以本身也就沒有什麼指望，我們大力押注的還是新能源、汽車和房地產，甚至連基建都沒有發力。目前，我們的貨幣政策，已經兩個月沒有變化了，以前每個季度降息或者降準一次的節奏，不知道是否會打破。這是一個讓我感到比較迷茫的地方。現在美聯儲的加息節奏預計會放緩，美聯儲主席鮑威爾暗示通脹見頂（這次是非常有可能不會再次打臉的），10年期美債收益和我們的10年期國債收益已經解除了倒掛。以前倒掛的時候，我們都可以保持寬鬆節奏，現在本來是空間進一步打開了，但是節奏似乎反而放緩了----央行近一個月，都是不斷通過小規模的逆回購，在收緊短期的流動性，這讓我極爲不解。另外，上週的重磅會議上，對疫情防控和經濟發展定調了，原則上是統","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8a8cc6ce16a94e3a872ef523025ab611","width":"-1","height":"-1"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":2,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/685942378","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":0,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":2,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":786,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9074728382,"gmtCreate":1658413894246,"gmtModify":1676536155090,"author":{"id":"3578208981838945","authorId":"3578208981838945","name":"211013能量飞车","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e583c75322dd4651672938ebba8683b7","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3578208981838945","idStr":"3578208981838945"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"👍","listText":"👍","text":"👍","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9074728382","repostId":"1196821163","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1196821163","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1658326752,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1196821163?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2022-07-20 22:19","market":"hk","language":"zh","title":"Really tossed it? Munger doesn't eat BYD's \"fish tail\"","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1196821163","media":"表外表里","summary":"芒格对比亚迪的偏爱，没能经得住考验。","content":"<p><html><head></head><body>Munger vs.<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/002594\">BYD</a>The preference failed to stand the test.</p><p>According to data from the Hong Kong Stock Exchange, 225 million shares of BYD were transferred to Citibank on July 11, exactly the same amount as<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BRK.A\">Berkshire</a>BYD's shareholding ratio among the heavyweight stocks at the end of 2021 is the same.</p><p>Tens of billions of positions were moved from the safe to the roadside stall of the vegetable market, just like a \"running\" attitude.</p><p>However, the market seems to have doubts about whether the victim behind this incident is Munger. After all, Munger has always been passionate about BYD, which is obvious to all.</p><p>In 2008, Munger made the third call to Buffett to suggest an investment in 51 years of acquaintance, and the investment target was BYD.</p><p>After cutting into the investment, Munger and Buffett have repeatedly supported BYD on the spot, at shareholder meetings or on social networks.</p><p>For example, when Munger attended the annual meeting of the Daily Journal in 2018, he said: \"BYD is very important and is now an extremely successful company.\"</p><p>In response to the question \"will BYD shares be sold\", he said categorically: Sell BYD? I guess that's not my style, BYD is part of the Munger family and I think I'll take it to my grave.</p><p>Such an \"affectionate\" image, saying that he will change his mind, is somewhat \"unbelievable\". But in the business world, everyone is a fox for thousands of years, so there is no white lotus.</p><p>It can be seen that since he bought it at HK $8 per share in 2008, Munger has held BYD for 14 years, and the return has been nearly 36 times. Might as well return to the investment itself and see if it's time for BYD to sell?</p><p><b>Survived the first high point of venture capital exit, betting on high sales and cashing in</b></p><p>\"When you bet on a company like BYD, you are not just betting on BYD, but betting that something is about to be confirmed.\" At the 2010 annual meeting, Munger explained the logic of investing in BYD.</p><p>The \"something\" he referred to is the underlying logic of early investment in the project-the track, horse, and rider. When it comes to BYD, it is the new energy track, BYD and Wang Chuanfu team.</p><p>In other words, Munger's original intention of investing in BYD was a venture capital.</p><p>Munger's old buddy Buffett praised in an interview in the same year: \"BYD CEO Wang Chuanfu is an extraordinary person, and I am very optimistic about their management.\"</p><p>However, whether the vision is accurate or not, in the end, you still have to speak with high returns. Therefore, the exit timing of venture capital is important.</p><p>From the perspective of the technological development stage of Gartner curve, there are two optimal exit points for venture capital:</p><p>The first high point is the overheating period before sliding to the trough, and the second high point is the climbing period before entering the plateau.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e682d0450f3dd4b762988586258a6c87\" tg-width=\"550\" tg-height=\"348\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Referring to this rule, from 2008 to 2010, under the background of hot market expectations for new energy technology, BYD launched the world's first new energy vehicle that does not rely on professional charging stations-the F3DM dual-mode electric vehicle, and the first batch of pure electric vehicles for the public. E6 has become the \"leader\" in the new energy track.</p><p>As a result, its stock price rose from 8 Hong Kong dollars to a peak of 80 Hong Kong dollars, a 10-fold increase.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/639d973144f097be1d3b93575a737200\" tg-width=\"840\" tg-height=\"470\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>In other words, BYD around 2010 was at its first peak-the overheating period before slipping to the trough.</p><p>But Munger did not quit at that time, but continued to hold it. The reason was: BYD focuses on the new energy vehicle market, which is huge, so he has confidence in BYD.</p><p>Luckily, things were indeed betted by him. Ten years later, the new energy vehicle industry shifted from to B to C era, and sales climbed rapidly.</p><p>After several rounds of iterations, BYD's battery technology and hybrid technology have been successfully implemented and realized sales.</p><p>As shown in the figure below, after the launch of BYD Han equipped with blade batteries in 2020, Qin Plus, Song Plus and Tang equipped with DM-i super hybrid models in 2021, sales increased rapidly.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/41807d4a798b7b6bf0a84df8fd4af570\" tg-width=\"550\" tg-height=\"190\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>This also means that with the increase in technology adoption and the acceleration of user penetration, BYD is currently heading for its second high point.</p><p>Whether it can reach a high point in the end mainly depends on two aspects: first, whether the company has more possibilities and space; The second is the current market, whether the price is in a relatively mature situation.</p><p>As far as the first condition is concerned, there is currently no clear path for the large-scale application of BYD technology in the short to medium term:</p><p>The highly popular semiconductor sector mainly produces electronic control and industrial chips such as IGBTs and MCUs, and it started late, and its reliability is significantly behind that of major international manufacturers. Higher-order<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/5RE.SI\">smart</a>Driving chips and digital cockpit chips have not yet been involved.</p><p>In the mobile phone processing business, although electronic atomization has broken through technical barriers, the market space is small and the landing time is uncertain.</p><p>In this way, the judgment pressure comes to the second condition. So, what is the status of BYD's current stock price?</p><p><b>The logic of venture capital has been fulfilled, and the fattest period of growth stocks has been enjoyed</b></p><p>The data shows that the new energy industry is still in the stage of accelerated penetration. From June 2021 to June 2022, the retail penetration rate of new energy vehicles has increased from 14.6% to 27.4%.</p><p>At the same time, BYD's sales have also grown rapidly. In June this year, the sales volume of new energy vehicles was 134,000, ranking first among segmented brands.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0363a0dca6360b43082d07202de7defc\" tg-width=\"550\" tg-height=\"169\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>In other words, with the huge industry space and its own rapid development, many people think that BYD is undoubtedly the \"best\" growth stock target.</p><p>In the short and medium term, the performance realization is relatively optimistic.</p><p>In the 2021 annual report conference call, the management expected the sales situation in 2022 to be: conservatively estimated sales of 1.5 million vehicles, hitting the annual target of 2 million.</p><p>The logical support for this expectation is:</p><p>BYD is still at the peak of technology realization, and there will be policy stimulus in the second half of the year (new energy vehicles going to the countryside, etc.).</p><p>Previously, sales were restricted by production capacity and failed to be released on a large scale: Chairman Wang Chuanfu revealed at the shareholders' meeting last month that BYD currently has more than 500,000 orders in hand.</p><p>The company also has a number of reserve models to be delivered, such as the Seal on the e3.0 platform. The order reached 22,600 vehicles within 7 hours of pre-sale. The supplier recently revealed that the current order is about 110,000 vehicles.</p><p>With the commissioning of the new factory (Hefei factory) in the second half of this year, sales will be gradually released.</p><p>Of course, this is only a short-term cash.</p><p>The core of growth stocks is to pay attention to the sustainability of performance realization within a certain period of time. To determine this, it is necessary to find out at what stage the market has responded to BYD's current pricing?</p><p>We dismantled BYD's business composition (as shown in the figure below), and calculated according to the segment valuation method, the corresponding valuation of BYD's auto sector is about 742.5 billion.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9523aebf143684b78bd6050ec35d3c9c\" tg-width=\"550\" tg-height=\"437\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/>Remarks: (1) BYD's market value was selected at 2022.7.20, and the average value of A shares and Hong Kong stocks was selected; (2) For battery, mobile phone and semiconductor sectors, the valuation adopts the average recent valuation of securities firms.</p><p>According to such a valuation, we reasonably assume that the net profit rate of BYD's auto board can reach 10%, and assume that the average bicycle revenue in the future is 180,000. Under the condition of giving 10-20 times PE, we can get the market's sales of BYD. It is expected to be 4.12/275/2.06 million vehicles.</p><p>The sales value of 4.12 million vehicles even exceeded the market's sales forecast for 2025. In other words, from a static perspective, the market's current pricing of BYD is overdrawn by sales in the next three years.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/714012c42981478a7604ebbfcc5c6f7c\" tg-width=\"550\" tg-height=\"159\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/>Remarks: (1) The valuation assumption is based on the historical PE range of mature car companies; (2) BYD is currently engaged in autonomous driving and intelligence, and has not shown the powerful side of software subscription SaaS. PE will continue traditional car companies; (3) In 2021, BYD's average bicycle revenue will be 148,000. With the launch of mid-to-high-end models, there is a strong certainty that the average bicycle revenue will reach 180,000.</p><p>In the three-year latitude, with dynamic changes in industry prosperity, policies, competitive environment, etc., how certain is BYD's fulfillment?</p><p>Let's calculate and reasonably assume that passenger car sales can reach 25 million in 2025, and BYD's market share corresponding to 4.12 million sales will be 16.5%. (Even with the 2.75 million sales expected under 15 times PE, the corresponding market share exceeds 10%)</p><p>From the perspective of the U.S. market, in recent years, there are four automobile manufacturers with a market share of more than 10%, and the probability of achievement is relatively high.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1410aeb7dedb883046086ad960d41c2e\" tg-width=\"550\" tg-height=\"310\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>However, judging from the current Chinese market, since 2013, the changes in the passenger car market share of mainstream domestic car companies show that among the segmented brands, only FAW-Volkswagen has a market share of more than 10% in 2020, and in only one year, Its market share has once again returned to below 10%.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/df36cbba4a4aac7e9b47032c4122d2d8\" tg-width=\"550\" tg-height=\"317\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>It can be seen that it is not easy to achieve a market share of more than 10% in the domestic market. If you want to quantify BYD's certainty in this area, the probability is about 1/17 with reference to the above changes.</p><p>In addition to the problem of sales realization, the 10% net profit rate optimistically assumed above is actually difficult to achieve.</p><p>Among the most mature automobile manufacturers in the world, only Ford and Volkswagen have each had a year in the past ten years, with a gross profit margin of more than 10%.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ae86894e7b55e18083aa5896deb9ffe3\" tg-width=\"550\" tg-height=\"412\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>As for domestic independent brands, the net profit margin performance is relatively good<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/601633\">Great Wall Motors</a>, in the 16 years from 2005 to 2021, there are 10 years in which the net profit rate exceeds 10%.</p><p>But this was all before 2017, and it was the early dividend of the SUV market. After that, the market competition intensified and the low prosperity of the automobile industry made it difficult to maintain a gross profit margin of more than 10%.</p><p>For other independent brands, the situation that the net profit margin exceeds 10% does not last.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/278878cf91bf41602fc206626a065512\" tg-width=\"550\" tg-height=\"173\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Based on this, according to the most optimistic assumption and referring to historical experience, the probability of BYD's net profit margin exceeding 10%, referring to<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/02333\">Great Wall Motors</a>The situation is about 5/8, and the probability that the market share exceeds 10% is 1/17, and the probability that the two items can be cashed out at the same time is only 3.7%.</p><p>In other words, BYD's current pricing already contains a relatively mature state, indicating that it has reached the second high point with a high probability. This means that Munger's venture capital logic has ended, and growth stock investment has also enjoyed the fattest period.</p><p>However, this pricing does not represent the end of investment opportunities. After all, pricing only reflects the eve of the transition from growth to value investing.</p><p><b>The car track is not a \"thick snow and long slope\", and the fishtail stage may not be suitable for value investment</b></p><p>As we all know, the excellent target of value investment is a money-making machine with \"certain input and unlimited output\". The logic of investment is:</p><p>Buying relatively good companies with a certain margin of safety has a long product life cycle, does not require large-scale capital investment, and has low bargaining power of production factors, so they can achieve good profitability.</p><p>So, is BYD such a target?</p><p>As a high-priced consumable, automobiles have a certain service life, especially in China. In addition to meeting the national annual inspection requirements, the reason for car replacement is the demand for car replacement brought about by the improvement of domestic consumption level.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b35ed93a982b1e550533906a33cdc086\" tg-width=\"550\" tg-height=\"266\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Faced with this part of the replacement demand, car companies have made every effort to launch new products, gradually forming the rule of \"updating and facelifting every year, replacing and replacing in three years, and technological innovation in five years\".</p><p>Not only that, in the current industry transformation period, the level of new energy and intelligence is upgrading rapidly, driving high R&D investment. Therefore, the R&D expenses of traditional car companies account for 5%-8% of revenue, and new forces account for even more.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/bfba5d8516d9b98eb8c70ce054a83441\" tg-width=\"550\" tg-height=\"182\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Competition and renewal are required every day, and the product life cycle will not be long, so it is difficult to become a good business in the eyes of value investors.</p><p>However, even if the research and development of the vehicle model successfully enters the mass production process, the update requirements for fixed assets such as production lines are put forward-expanding new production lines and transforming old production lines.</p><p>Munger once said: There are two kinds of businesses in the world, the first one earns 12% of the annual income, and you can take all the profits at the end of the year; The second one also earns 12% a year, but you have to reinvest the money you earn, and then point to all the plant equipment and say to the shareholders: This is your profit.</p><p>Looking at it this way, the situation of BYD or automobile manufacturers is in line with the second type of business.</p><p>And Munger's attitude is: I hate the second business.</p><p>The reason why I am so disgusted may be that this business model requires constant investment of capital, but the ROI is not attractive.</p><p>After all, in the eyes of Munger's old buddy Buffett,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/GM\">General Motors</a>The gross profit margin of 21% is a \"dwarf\" existence compared with a real high-quality enterprise.</p><p>Going back to BYD, it stopped the production of fuel vehicles in March this year, and then focused on pure electric and plug-in hybrid businesses.</p><p>This means that if the production capacity expansion plan of new models must be implemented quickly, high capital expenditures will be inevitable.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c40d12771d271c56eaf640a6bdb04176\" tg-width=\"550\" tg-height=\"378\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>However, the fixed assets originally dedicated to the production of fuel vehicles face a higher risk of fixed asset impairment, which will also \"eat\" BYD's profits to a certain extent.</p><p>A lot of Capex, D&A is just one aspect, and there is another trouble.</p><p>Car companies do not have much bargaining power when facing labor production factors. (European and American trade unions won't say it, I believe this is common sense)</p><p>It can be seen that with the improvement of the electrification and intelligence level of car companies, the high-end talent structure, and the fading demographic dividend, since 2017, the proportion of employee salaries in car companies' income has continued to rise.</p><p>BYD is no exception. In 2021, the year-on-year growth rate of its employee salaries will reach 31%.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d7ffd0f0e76157d5fddf634cef271d87\" tg-width=\"550\" tg-height=\"191\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>However, this part of rigid expenditure still has the problem that it is difficult to adjust according to the prosperity of the industry-when the prosperity of the industry rises, enterprises may not be able to retain outstanding talents without salary increases, but when the prosperity declines, it is difficult to reduce salaries.</p><p>What this may bring is that the number of employees is increasing, but the per capita benefit has not improved significantly. As shown in the figure below, BYD's per capita net profit in 2021 will fall instead of rising.</p><p>After slimming down, the income statement ended up being very thin. Taking 2021 as an example, the gross profit margin is only 13%, and the net profit margin is less than 2%.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4a6daa6de627ed10ddf122d33b27c2ec\" tg-width=\"550\" tg-height=\"188\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Such income performance obviously cannot satisfy the appetite for value investing.</p><p>All in all, the car track is not a \"thick snow and long slope\". Compared with when Munger bought it, the current BYD has no \"36 times return\" story to tell, which may not be suitable for the logic of value investment.</p><p><b>brief summary</b></p><p>At the Daily Journal shareholders' meeting at the beginning of last year, Munger was still not afraid of the \"vortex\" and tried his best to shout for BYD's platform:</p><p>\"Some speculators in the Chinese market have fired BYD's stock price a little high, and the valuation is so high as a'nosebleed '. If you are a smart venture capitalist, you usually sell half of it, but I won't do it because I like this company.\"</p><p>At that point in time, Bamang did have the rationality to continue to hold it. After all, the DM-i hybrid technology held by BYD at that time had not yet been fully realized.</p><p>Now, the new energy vehicle technology is expected to be implemented, the logic of venture capital has basically been fulfilled, and it has also enjoyed the fattest period of growth stocks. However, the car track is not a \"thick snow and long slope\", and it is not suitable for continued holding with the logic of value investment.</p><p>In this way, the answer to what choice Munger will make under the current high stock price situation is self-evident.</p><p></body></html></p>","source":"lsy1573719481907","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Really tossed it? Munger doesn't eat BYD's \"fish tail\"</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nReally tossed it? Munger doesn't eat BYD's \"fish tail\"\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">表外表里</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2022-07-20 22:19</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><html><head></head><body>Munger vs.<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/002594\">BYD</a>The preference failed to stand the test.</p><p>According to data from the Hong Kong Stock Exchange, 225 million shares of BYD were transferred to Citibank on July 11, exactly the same amount as<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BRK.A\">Berkshire</a>BYD's shareholding ratio among the heavyweight stocks at the end of 2021 is the same.</p><p>Tens of billions of positions were moved from the safe to the roadside stall of the vegetable market, just like a \"running\" attitude.</p><p>However, the market seems to have doubts about whether the victim behind this incident is Munger. After all, Munger has always been passionate about BYD, which is obvious to all.</p><p>In 2008, Munger made the third call to Buffett to suggest an investment in 51 years of acquaintance, and the investment target was BYD.</p><p>After cutting into the investment, Munger and Buffett have repeatedly supported BYD on the spot, at shareholder meetings or on social networks.</p><p>For example, when Munger attended the annual meeting of the Daily Journal in 2018, he said: \"BYD is very important and is now an extremely successful company.\"</p><p>In response to the question \"will BYD shares be sold\", he said categorically: Sell BYD? I guess that's not my style, BYD is part of the Munger family and I think I'll take it to my grave.</p><p>Such an \"affectionate\" image, saying that he will change his mind, is somewhat \"unbelievable\". But in the business world, everyone is a fox for thousands of years, so there is no white lotus.</p><p>It can be seen that since he bought it at HK $8 per share in 2008, Munger has held BYD for 14 years, and the return has been nearly 36 times. Might as well return to the investment itself and see if it's time for BYD to sell?</p><p><b>Survived the first high point of venture capital exit, betting on high sales and cashing in</b></p><p>\"When you bet on a company like BYD, you are not just betting on BYD, but betting that something is about to be confirmed.\" At the 2010 annual meeting, Munger explained the logic of investing in BYD.</p><p>The \"something\" he referred to is the underlying logic of early investment in the project-the track, horse, and rider. When it comes to BYD, it is the new energy track, BYD and Wang Chuanfu team.</p><p>In other words, Munger's original intention of investing in BYD was a venture capital.</p><p>Munger's old buddy Buffett praised in an interview in the same year: \"BYD CEO Wang Chuanfu is an extraordinary person, and I am very optimistic about their management.\"</p><p>However, whether the vision is accurate or not, in the end, you still have to speak with high returns. Therefore, the exit timing of venture capital is important.</p><p>From the perspective of the technological development stage of Gartner curve, there are two optimal exit points for venture capital:</p><p>The first high point is the overheating period before sliding to the trough, and the second high point is the climbing period before entering the plateau.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e682d0450f3dd4b762988586258a6c87\" tg-width=\"550\" tg-height=\"348\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Referring to this rule, from 2008 to 2010, under the background of hot market expectations for new energy technology, BYD launched the world's first new energy vehicle that does not rely on professional charging stations-the F3DM dual-mode electric vehicle, and the first batch of pure electric vehicles for the public. E6 has become the \"leader\" in the new energy track.</p><p>As a result, its stock price rose from 8 Hong Kong dollars to a peak of 80 Hong Kong dollars, a 10-fold increase.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/639d973144f097be1d3b93575a737200\" tg-width=\"840\" tg-height=\"470\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>In other words, BYD around 2010 was at its first peak-the overheating period before slipping to the trough.</p><p>But Munger did not quit at that time, but continued to hold it. The reason was: BYD focuses on the new energy vehicle market, which is huge, so he has confidence in BYD.</p><p>Luckily, things were indeed betted by him. Ten years later, the new energy vehicle industry shifted from to B to C era, and sales climbed rapidly.</p><p>After several rounds of iterations, BYD's battery technology and hybrid technology have been successfully implemented and realized sales.</p><p>As shown in the figure below, after the launch of BYD Han equipped with blade batteries in 2020, Qin Plus, Song Plus and Tang equipped with DM-i super hybrid models in 2021, sales increased rapidly.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/41807d4a798b7b6bf0a84df8fd4af570\" tg-width=\"550\" tg-height=\"190\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>This also means that with the increase in technology adoption and the acceleration of user penetration, BYD is currently heading for its second high point.</p><p>Whether it can reach a high point in the end mainly depends on two aspects: first, whether the company has more possibilities and space; The second is the current market, whether the price is in a relatively mature situation.</p><p>As far as the first condition is concerned, there is currently no clear path for the large-scale application of BYD technology in the short to medium term:</p><p>The highly popular semiconductor sector mainly produces electronic control and industrial chips such as IGBTs and MCUs, and it started late, and its reliability is significantly behind that of major international manufacturers. Higher-order<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/5RE.SI\">smart</a>Driving chips and digital cockpit chips have not yet been involved.</p><p>In the mobile phone processing business, although electronic atomization has broken through technical barriers, the market space is small and the landing time is uncertain.</p><p>In this way, the judgment pressure comes to the second condition. So, what is the status of BYD's current stock price?</p><p><b>The logic of venture capital has been fulfilled, and the fattest period of growth stocks has been enjoyed</b></p><p>The data shows that the new energy industry is still in the stage of accelerated penetration. From June 2021 to June 2022, the retail penetration rate of new energy vehicles has increased from 14.6% to 27.4%.</p><p>At the same time, BYD's sales have also grown rapidly. In June this year, the sales volume of new energy vehicles was 134,000, ranking first among segmented brands.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0363a0dca6360b43082d07202de7defc\" tg-width=\"550\" tg-height=\"169\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>In other words, with the huge industry space and its own rapid development, many people think that BYD is undoubtedly the \"best\" growth stock target.</p><p>In the short and medium term, the performance realization is relatively optimistic.</p><p>In the 2021 annual report conference call, the management expected the sales situation in 2022 to be: conservatively estimated sales of 1.5 million vehicles, hitting the annual target of 2 million.</p><p>The logical support for this expectation is:</p><p>BYD is still at the peak of technology realization, and there will be policy stimulus in the second half of the year (new energy vehicles going to the countryside, etc.).</p><p>Previously, sales were restricted by production capacity and failed to be released on a large scale: Chairman Wang Chuanfu revealed at the shareholders' meeting last month that BYD currently has more than 500,000 orders in hand.</p><p>The company also has a number of reserve models to be delivered, such as the Seal on the e3.0 platform. The order reached 22,600 vehicles within 7 hours of pre-sale. The supplier recently revealed that the current order is about 110,000 vehicles.</p><p>With the commissioning of the new factory (Hefei factory) in the second half of this year, sales will be gradually released.</p><p>Of course, this is only a short-term cash.</p><p>The core of growth stocks is to pay attention to the sustainability of performance realization within a certain period of time. To determine this, it is necessary to find out at what stage the market has responded to BYD's current pricing?</p><p>We dismantled BYD's business composition (as shown in the figure below), and calculated according to the segment valuation method, the corresponding valuation of BYD's auto sector is about 742.5 billion.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9523aebf143684b78bd6050ec35d3c9c\" tg-width=\"550\" tg-height=\"437\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/>Remarks: (1) BYD's market value was selected at 2022.7.20, and the average value of A shares and Hong Kong stocks was selected; (2) For battery, mobile phone and semiconductor sectors, the valuation adopts the average recent valuation of securities firms.</p><p>According to such a valuation, we reasonably assume that the net profit rate of BYD's auto board can reach 10%, and assume that the average bicycle revenue in the future is 180,000. Under the condition of giving 10-20 times PE, we can get the market's sales of BYD. It is expected to be 4.12/275/2.06 million vehicles.</p><p>The sales value of 4.12 million vehicles even exceeded the market's sales forecast for 2025. In other words, from a static perspective, the market's current pricing of BYD is overdrawn by sales in the next three years.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/714012c42981478a7604ebbfcc5c6f7c\" tg-width=\"550\" tg-height=\"159\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/>Remarks: (1) The valuation assumption is based on the historical PE range of mature car companies; (2) BYD is currently engaged in autonomous driving and intelligence, and has not shown the powerful side of software subscription SaaS. PE will continue traditional car companies; (3) In 2021, BYD's average bicycle revenue will be 148,000. With the launch of mid-to-high-end models, there is a strong certainty that the average bicycle revenue will reach 180,000.</p><p>In the three-year latitude, with dynamic changes in industry prosperity, policies, competitive environment, etc., how certain is BYD's fulfillment?</p><p>Let's calculate and reasonably assume that passenger car sales can reach 25 million in 2025, and BYD's market share corresponding to 4.12 million sales will be 16.5%. (Even with the 2.75 million sales expected under 15 times PE, the corresponding market share exceeds 10%)</p><p>From the perspective of the U.S. market, in recent years, there are four automobile manufacturers with a market share of more than 10%, and the probability of achievement is relatively high.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1410aeb7dedb883046086ad960d41c2e\" tg-width=\"550\" tg-height=\"310\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>However, judging from the current Chinese market, since 2013, the changes in the passenger car market share of mainstream domestic car companies show that among the segmented brands, only FAW-Volkswagen has a market share of more than 10% in 2020, and in only one year, Its market share has once again returned to below 10%.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/df36cbba4a4aac7e9b47032c4122d2d8\" tg-width=\"550\" tg-height=\"317\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>It can be seen that it is not easy to achieve a market share of more than 10% in the domestic market. If you want to quantify BYD's certainty in this area, the probability is about 1/17 with reference to the above changes.</p><p>In addition to the problem of sales realization, the 10% net profit rate optimistically assumed above is actually difficult to achieve.</p><p>Among the most mature automobile manufacturers in the world, only Ford and Volkswagen have each had a year in the past ten years, with a gross profit margin of more than 10%.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ae86894e7b55e18083aa5896deb9ffe3\" tg-width=\"550\" tg-height=\"412\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>As for domestic independent brands, the net profit margin performance is relatively good<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/601633\">Great Wall Motors</a>, in the 16 years from 2005 to 2021, there are 10 years in which the net profit rate exceeds 10%.</p><p>But this was all before 2017, and it was the early dividend of the SUV market. After that, the market competition intensified and the low prosperity of the automobile industry made it difficult to maintain a gross profit margin of more than 10%.</p><p>For other independent brands, the situation that the net profit margin exceeds 10% does not last.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/278878cf91bf41602fc206626a065512\" tg-width=\"550\" tg-height=\"173\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Based on this, according to the most optimistic assumption and referring to historical experience, the probability of BYD's net profit margin exceeding 10%, referring to<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/02333\">Great Wall Motors</a>The situation is about 5/8, and the probability that the market share exceeds 10% is 1/17, and the probability that the two items can be cashed out at the same time is only 3.7%.</p><p>In other words, BYD's current pricing already contains a relatively mature state, indicating that it has reached the second high point with a high probability. This means that Munger's venture capital logic has ended, and growth stock investment has also enjoyed the fattest period.</p><p>However, this pricing does not represent the end of investment opportunities. After all, pricing only reflects the eve of the transition from growth to value investing.</p><p><b>The car track is not a \"thick snow and long slope\", and the fishtail stage may not be suitable for value investment</b></p><p>As we all know, the excellent target of value investment is a money-making machine with \"certain input and unlimited output\". The logic of investment is:</p><p>Buying relatively good companies with a certain margin of safety has a long product life cycle, does not require large-scale capital investment, and has low bargaining power of production factors, so they can achieve good profitability.</p><p>So, is BYD such a target?</p><p>As a high-priced consumable, automobiles have a certain service life, especially in China. In addition to meeting the national annual inspection requirements, the reason for car replacement is the demand for car replacement brought about by the improvement of domestic consumption level.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b35ed93a982b1e550533906a33cdc086\" tg-width=\"550\" tg-height=\"266\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Faced with this part of the replacement demand, car companies have made every effort to launch new products, gradually forming the rule of \"updating and facelifting every year, replacing and replacing in three years, and technological innovation in five years\".</p><p>Not only that, in the current industry transformation period, the level of new energy and intelligence is upgrading rapidly, driving high R&D investment. Therefore, the R&D expenses of traditional car companies account for 5%-8% of revenue, and new forces account for even more.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/bfba5d8516d9b98eb8c70ce054a83441\" tg-width=\"550\" tg-height=\"182\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Competition and renewal are required every day, and the product life cycle will not be long, so it is difficult to become a good business in the eyes of value investors.</p><p>However, even if the research and development of the vehicle model successfully enters the mass production process, the update requirements for fixed assets such as production lines are put forward-expanding new production lines and transforming old production lines.</p><p>Munger once said: There are two kinds of businesses in the world, the first one earns 12% of the annual income, and you can take all the profits at the end of the year; The second one also earns 12% a year, but you have to reinvest the money you earn, and then point to all the plant equipment and say to the shareholders: This is your profit.</p><p>Looking at it this way, the situation of BYD or automobile manufacturers is in line with the second type of business.</p><p>And Munger's attitude is: I hate the second business.</p><p>The reason why I am so disgusted may be that this business model requires constant investment of capital, but the ROI is not attractive.</p><p>After all, in the eyes of Munger's old buddy Buffett,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/GM\">General Motors</a>The gross profit margin of 21% is a \"dwarf\" existence compared with a real high-quality enterprise.</p><p>Going back to BYD, it stopped the production of fuel vehicles in March this year, and then focused on pure electric and plug-in hybrid businesses.</p><p>This means that if the production capacity expansion plan of new models must be implemented quickly, high capital expenditures will be inevitable.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c40d12771d271c56eaf640a6bdb04176\" tg-width=\"550\" tg-height=\"378\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>However, the fixed assets originally dedicated to the production of fuel vehicles face a higher risk of fixed asset impairment, which will also \"eat\" BYD's profits to a certain extent.</p><p>A lot of Capex, D&A is just one aspect, and there is another trouble.</p><p>Car companies do not have much bargaining power when facing labor production factors. (European and American trade unions won't say it, I believe this is common sense)</p><p>It can be seen that with the improvement of the electrification and intelligence level of car companies, the high-end talent structure, and the fading demographic dividend, since 2017, the proportion of employee salaries in car companies' income has continued to rise.</p><p>BYD is no exception. In 2021, the year-on-year growth rate of its employee salaries will reach 31%.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d7ffd0f0e76157d5fddf634cef271d87\" tg-width=\"550\" tg-height=\"191\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>However, this part of rigid expenditure still has the problem that it is difficult to adjust according to the prosperity of the industry-when the prosperity of the industry rises, enterprises may not be able to retain outstanding talents without salary increases, but when the prosperity declines, it is difficult to reduce salaries.</p><p>What this may bring is that the number of employees is increasing, but the per capita benefit has not improved significantly. As shown in the figure below, BYD's per capita net profit in 2021 will fall instead of rising.</p><p>After slimming down, the income statement ended up being very thin. Taking 2021 as an example, the gross profit margin is only 13%, and the net profit margin is less than 2%.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4a6daa6de627ed10ddf122d33b27c2ec\" tg-width=\"550\" tg-height=\"188\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Such income performance obviously cannot satisfy the appetite for value investing.</p><p>All in all, the car track is not a \"thick snow and long slope\". Compared with when Munger bought it, the current BYD has no \"36 times return\" story to tell, which may not be suitable for the logic of value investment.</p><p><b>brief summary</b></p><p>At the Daily Journal shareholders' meeting at the beginning of last year, Munger was still not afraid of the \"vortex\" and tried his best to shout for BYD's platform:</p><p>\"Some speculators in the Chinese market have fired BYD's stock price a little high, and the valuation is so high as a'nosebleed '. If you are a smart venture capitalist, you usually sell half of it, but I won't do it because I like this company.\"</p><p>At that point in time, Bamang did have the rationality to continue to hold it. After all, the DM-i hybrid technology held by BYD at that time had not yet been fully realized.</p><p>Now, the new energy vehicle technology is expected to be implemented, the logic of venture capital has basically been fulfilled, and it has also enjoyed the fattest period of growth stocks. However, the car track is not a \"thick snow and long slope\", and it is not suitable for continued holding with the logic of value investment.</p><p>In this way, the answer to what choice Munger will make under the current high stock price situation is self-evident.</p><p></body></html></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> source：<a href=\"http://finance.sina.com.cn/tech/csj/2022-07-20/doc-imizmscv2813638.shtml\">表外表里</a></p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/196365d7f35a249f047d609b02a115b6","relate_stocks":{"BK1149":"通信设备","BK1509":"特斯拉概念股","002594":"比亚迪","BK1522":"燃料电池","BK1504":"苹果概念","BK1582":"深圳本地概念股","BK1515":"抗疫概念","BK1607":"新IT概念","EVS.SI":"MSCI China Electric Vehicles and Future Mobility ETF-NikkoAM","BK1539":"汽车股","BK1119":"汽车制造商","01211":"比亚迪股份","BK1589":"北水核心资产","BK1580":"烟草概念","00285":"比亚迪电子","BK1594":"碳中和概念股","BK1540":"电池"},"source_url":"http://finance.sina.com.cn/tech/csj/2022-07-20/doc-imizmscv2813638.shtml","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1196821163","content_text":"芒格对比亚迪的偏爱，没能经得住考验。港交所数据披露，比亚迪2.25亿股于7月11日被转让给花旗银行，数额刚好与伯克希尔2021年底重仓股中的比亚迪持股比例一致。几百亿的仓位，从保险柜里，挪到了菜市场路边摊，俨然一副“跑路”姿态。不过，市场似乎对这起事件背后的事主，是否是芒格存疑。毕竟，芒格一直以来对比亚迪的狂热，有目共睹。2008年，芒格给巴菲特打了认识51年来第3个建议投资的电话，投资标的就是比亚迪。切入投资后，芒格和巴菲特多次在现场、股东大会抑或是社交网络上，为比亚迪站台。比如，2018年芒格参加《每日期刊》（Daily Journal）年会时表示：“比亚迪很重要，现在是一家极其成功的公司。”而针对“会不会抛售比亚迪股票”的问题，他斩钉截铁表示：抛售比亚迪？我想这不是我的风格，比亚迪是芒格家族的一员，我想我会带着它进坟墓。这样一个“深情款款”的形象，说他会变心，多少让人“难以置信”。但商业世界里，大家都是千年的狐狸，哪来什么白莲花啊。可以看到，从2008年以每股8港元买入至今，芒格持有比亚迪14年，回报已近36倍。不妨回归投资本身，看看比亚迪到底是否到了要抛的时候？挺过第一个风投退出高点，赌销量高兑现“当你对像比亚迪这样的企业下注时，不仅仅是在对比亚迪下注，而是在下注赌某样东西即将会被证实。”2010年年会上，芒格如此阐述投资比亚迪的逻辑道。他所说的“某样东西”，正是早期投资对项目的底层逻辑——赛道、马、骑手，因应到比亚迪身上，就是新能源赛道、比亚迪和王传福团队。换句话说，芒格投资比亚迪，初衷是一笔风险投资。芒格的老伙计巴菲特，在同一年的访谈中曾盛赞称：“比亚迪CEO王传福是一个不平凡的人，我很看好他们的管理层。”不过，眼光到底准不准，最终还是要以高回报说话。因此，风险投资的退出时机很重要。从Gartner曲线的技术发展阶段来看，风险投资有两个最佳的退出时点：第一个高点是滑向低谷前的过热期，第二个高点是进入平稳期之前的爬坡期。参照这个规律，2008-2010年，市场对新能源技术预期火热背景下，比亚迪通过推出全球首款不依赖专业充电站的新能源汽车——F3DM双模电动车，以及首批面向大众的纯电动车E6，成了新能源赛道“领头羊”。籍由此，其股价从8港元涨到最高点80港元，翻了10倍。也就是说，2010年左右的比亚迪，处于第一个顶点——滑向低谷前的过热期。但当时的芒格并未退出，而是继续持有，理由是：比亚迪专注于新能源汽车市场，这个市场巨大，所以对比亚迪有信心。运气不错，事情确实被其押中，10年之后新能源汽车行业从to B转入to C时代，销量快速爬坡。比亚迪的电池技术和混动技术经过几轮迭代，相继落地应用成功，兑现销量。如下图，2020年搭载刀片电池的比亚迪汉，2021年搭载DM-i超级混动的秦Plus、宋Plus和唐等车型上市后，销量迅速提升。这也意味着，随着技术采用率的上升和用户渗透的加速，比亚迪目前在走向第二个高点的阶段。而最终能否达到高点，主要看两方面：一是公司是否有更多的可能性和空间；二是现在的市场，是否price in了相对成熟期的态势。就第一个条件来说，目前比亚迪技术的大规模应用方面，短中期没有比较明确的路径：呼声较高的半导体板块，产品主要是IGBT、MCU等电控和工业芯片，且起步较晚，可靠性与国际大厂有明显差距。高阶的智能驾驶芯片和数字座舱芯片，更是尚未涉足。手机代加工业务，虽然电子雾化突破了技术壁垒，但市场空间小，落地时间不确定。如此一来，评判压力来到了第二个条件。那么，比亚迪现在的股价，到底蕴含了什么状态呢？风投逻辑兑现，吃到了成长股最肥美一段数据显示，新能源行业仍处于加速渗透阶段，2021年6月-2022年6月，新能源汽车零售渗透率从14.6%提升到了27.4%。与此同时，比亚迪销量也同步高速增长，今年6月新能源汽车销量13.4万辆，位居细分品牌第一。也就是说，行业空间巨大叠加自身高速发展，很多人觉得比亚迪无疑是“最好”的成长股标的。在当下短中期来看，业绩兑现是相对乐观的。2021年年报电话会议上，管理层预期2022年的销量情况为：保守估计销量150万辆，冲击200万年度目标。这一预期的逻辑支撑有：比亚迪当下仍处于技术兑现的高峰期，且下半年有政策刺激（新能源汽车下乡等）。此前销量受制于产能，未能大规模释放：董事长王传福在上个月的股东大会上透露，目前比亚迪在手订单已超过50万辆。公司还有多款储备车型待交付，比如e3.0平台的海豹，开启预售7小时订单达到2.26万辆，供应商近期透露目前订单大概在11万辆左右。随着今年下半年新工厂（合肥工厂）的投产，销量将逐步释放。当然，这只是短期中的兑现情况。成长股的核心，还要关注一定时间内业绩兑现的持续性。要确定这一点，需要弄清市场对比亚迪当下的定价，反应到了哪个阶段？我们拆解比亚迪的业务构成（如下图），按分部估值法测算得出，比亚迪汽车板块对应的估值约7425亿。备注：（1）比亚迪市值选取时点为2022.7.20，选择了A股和港股的平均值；（2）电池、手机、半导体板块，估值采用券商近期估值平均数。而按照这样的估值，我们合理假设比亚迪汽车板的净利率能够达到10%，并假定未来平均单车收入为18万，在给予10-20倍PE的情况下，可得出市场对比亚迪的销量预期为412/275/206万辆。而412万辆这个销量数值，甚至超过了市场对其2025年的销量预计。也就是说静态看，市场对比亚迪现在的定价，透支的是未来3年的销量。备注：（1）估值假设基于成熟车企的历史PE区间；（2）比亚迪目前在自动驾驶、智能化，并没展现出软件订阅SaaS强大的一面，PE会延续传统车企；（3）2021年比亚迪平均单车收入14.8万，随着中高端车型的推出，平均单车收入达到18万的确定性较强。而拉长到三年的时间纬度中，行业景气度、政策、竞争环境等动态变化，比亚迪的兑现确定性多大呢？我们推算一下，合理假设2025年乘用车销量可达到2500万辆，比亚迪实现412万销量对应的市占率就为16.5%。（即使是15倍PE下的275万销量预期，对应的市占率也超过了10%）从美国市场上来看，最近几年，市占率超过10%的汽车制造商有四家，达成概率较高。但从当下的中国市场来看，2013年至今，国内主流车企乘用车市占率变化显示，细分品牌中只有一汽大众在2020年的市占率超过了10%，且仅一年，其市占率又再次回到10%以下。由此可见，在国内市场想要市占率超过10%，绝非易事。如果要给比亚迪在这一块的确定性定量，概率参考上述变化情况约为1/17。除了销量兑现问题，前文乐观假设的10%净利率，事实上也很难实现。那些全球最成熟的汽车制造商，最近十几年里，只有福特、大众各有一年，毛利率超过10%。而国内自主品牌，净利率表现相对较好的是长城汽车，2005-2021的16年里，净利率超过10%的有10年。但这都是2017年以前，吃得是SUV市场早期红利。之后，市场竞争加剧叠加汽车行业低景气度，10%以上的毛利率难以维持。其他自主品牌，净利率超过10%的情况，也都不持续。基于此，按照最乐观假设，参考历史经验，比亚迪净利率超过10%的概率，参考长城汽车的情况约为5/8，而市占率超过10%的概率又为1/17，可得两项同时兑现的概率只有3.7%。也就是说，比亚迪目前的定价里已经蕴含到了相对成熟的状态，说明大概率到达了第二个高点。这意味着芒格的风险投资逻辑已经结束了，成长股投资也已经吃到了最肥美的一段。不过，这个定价并不代表投资机会终结，毕竟定价，只是反映「成长到价值投资」过渡的前夕。汽车赛道并非“厚雪长坡”，鱼尾阶段或不适合价值投资众所周知，价值投资的优秀标的，是“投入一定，产出无限大”的赚钱机器，投资的逻辑为：以一定的安全边际买入相对好的企业，它们的产品生命周期长，不需要做大规模的资本性投入，且生产要素议价权低，因此能够实现良好的盈利水平。那么，比亚迪是这样的标的吗？汽车作为一种高价消耗品，是有一定的使用年限的，而在中国使用年限尤其短。换车原因除了满足国家年检要求外，还有随着国内消费水平的提升，带来的换车需求。面对这部分更换需求，车企们纷纷卯足了劲儿推出新产品，逐渐形成了“每年更新改款，3年换代更迭，5年技术大革新”的行规。不仅如此，在当下的行业转型期，新能源和智能化的水平升级迅速，推动研发投入居高不下，因此传统车企的研发费用占收入比达5%-8%，新势力则更甚。天天要求竞争和更新，产品寿命周期就会不长久，因而难以成为价值投资者眼中的好生意。然而，即便车型研发成功进入量产环节，对生产线等固定资产也提出了更新要求——扩建新产线，改造旧产线。芒格曾说过：世界上有两种生意，第一种每年赚12%的收益，年末你可以拿走所有利润；第二种每年也赚12%，但你不得不把赚来的钱重新投资，然后指着所有的厂房设备对股东们说：这就是你们的利润。这么看的话，比亚迪或者说汽车制造企业的情况，正符合第二种生意。而芒格的态度是：我恨第二种生意。之所以会如此厌恶，或许在于这种生意模式，要不停投入资本，但ROI并不诱人。毕竟在芒格老伙计巴菲特眼里，通用汽车21%的毛利率与真正的优质企业相比，都是“相形见绌”的存在。回到比亚迪身上，其今年3月起停止了燃油车整车生产，之后专注于纯电和插电混动业务。这意味着，新车型的产能扩建计划要快速落实，那么高额资本支出就难以避免。而原先燃油车生产专用的固定资产，则面临较高的固定资产减值风险，这一定程度也会“吃掉”比亚迪的利润。大量Capex、D&A只是一方面，还有另一方面麻烦。车企在面对劳动生产要素时，并没太多议价权。（欧美工会就不说，相信这是一个常识）可以看到，随着车企的电动化、智能化水平提升，人才结构高端化以及人口红利消退等综合作用下，2017年以来，车企员工薪酬占收入比例，持续上升。比亚迪也不例外，2021年其职工薪酬同比增速达到31%。而这部分刚性支出，还有着难以根据行业景气度进行调整的问题——行业景气度上升时，企业不加薪可能无法留住优秀人才，而景气度下行时，降薪却难以落地。如此可能带来的是，职工人数规模在增长，但人均效益却并没有明显提升。如下图，比亚迪2021年的人均创造净利润，不升反降。一通瘦身下来，利润表最终十分单薄，以2021年为例，毛利率仅为13%，净利率不足2%。这样的收益表现，显然满足不了价值投资的胃口。总而言之，汽车赛道并非“厚雪长坡”，当下的比亚迪与芒格买入时相比，已没有“36倍回报”的故事可讲，可能并不适合价值投资逻辑。小结去年初的Daily Journal股东大会上，芒格还在不惧“旋涡”，极力为比亚迪站台呐喊：“中国市场的一些投机者把比亚迪的股价炒得有点高，估值高到‘流鼻血’的地步。如果是聪明的风险投资者，通常会卖出一半，但是我不会这样做，因为喜欢这家公司。”站在那个时点，巴芒确实有继续持有的合理性，毕竟彼时比亚迪手握的DM-i混动技术，还没有完全兑现。而现在，新能源汽车技术预期落地，风投逻辑基本兑现，也吃到了成长股最肥美的一段。但汽车赛道并非“厚雪长坡”，并不适合以价值投资的逻辑继续持有。如此一来，在当下的高位股价情况下，芒格会做什么样的选择，答案不言而喻。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"00285":0.9,"01211":0.9,"EVS.SI":0.9,"002594":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":893,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9074394954,"gmtCreate":1658291803578,"gmtModify":1676536136321,"author":{"id":"3578208981838945","authorId":"3578208981838945","name":"211013能量飞车","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e583c75322dd4651672938ebba8683b7","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3578208981838945","idStr":"3578208981838945"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"👍","listText":"👍","text":"👍","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9074394954","repostId":"1160182747","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":963,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9072285225,"gmtCreate":1658039657867,"gmtModify":1676536097647,"author":{"id":"3578208981838945","authorId":"3578208981838945","name":"211013能量飞车","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e583c75322dd4651672938ebba8683b7","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3578208981838945","idStr":"3578208981838945"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"👍","listText":"👍","text":"👍","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9072285225","repostId":"2252448578","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"2252448578","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1658020810,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/2252448578?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2022-07-17 09:20","market":"sh","language":"zh","title":"Moody's Economist: The U.S. Could Be In Recession By Convincing Itself","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2252448578","media":"环球市场播报","summary":"　　做了30多年经济学家的马克·赞迪说，他从未见过这么多人相信经济衰退即将来临。　　尽管他相信美国经济仍能避免这样的经济低迷，但市场情绪如此低迷，会带来自身的风险——这是一种自我实现的衰退预言。此前，美国政府本周公布的数据显示，通胀率达到了近41年来的最高水平。　　我与首席执行官、首席财务官、投资者、朋友、家人交谈，他们认为我们正在进入衰退。","content":"<p><html><head></head><body>He added that the housing market has \"very rapidly fallen into a deep freeze\"</p><p>Mark Zandi, an economist for more than 30 years, says he has never seen so many people believe that a recession is coming.</p><p>Although he believes that the U.S. economy can still avoid such a downturn, market sentiment is so depressed that it carries its own risks-a self-fulfilling recession prophecy. The move follows data released by the U.S. government this week showing inflation reached its highest level in nearly 41 years.</p><p><b>Ask:</b>You lowered your GDP forecast for this year and next year. (Zandi now expects real growth to be 1% this year and 2% in 2023, compared with previous forecasts of 2% and 2.5%.)<b>What will happen in the next 18 to 24 months?</b></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/522238b85e5a6056ae5587a6bd09193b\" tg-width=\"550\" tg-height=\"366\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MCO\">Moody's</a>Zandi, chief economist of Analytics</p><p><b>A:</b>I still have no recession (in his prediction). It's clear that the risk of a recession is high-I mean, it's clear that when inflation is so high and the Fed is in a state of precaution 1 and rightly focused on bringing it down by raising interest rates, the market sentiment is bad, right?</p><p>I talk to CEOs, CFOs, investors, friends, family, and they think we're entering a recession. I've never seen anything like this before. I have seen a lot of business cycles. No one can predict a recession. But in this crisis, everyone is predicting a recession. So when sentiment is so fragile, it doesn't take much effort to push us into the market. I think with a little luck and some sound policymaking by the Fed, we will be able to avoid a recession. But I didn't say it very confidently.</p><p>I don't think we need a recession for inflation to come back. Oil prices will continue to rise. Natural gas prices will fall. As supply chain issues are resolved, we will see car prices fall, and we will get more car production. Commodity prices, and more broadly, commodity prices will rise.</p><p><b>Q: When you lowered your GDP growth forecast, you said that the possibility of continued economic expansion still exists. What the hell are you thinking?</b></p><p><b>A:</b>In my opinion, what makes me most comforting is that the firewall between a continuously growing economy and a recession is the American consumer. If American consumers could just hang on, do their part and spend as usual, we could avoid a recession. By the way, if American consumers hold on, they will also keep the global economy moving forward. You know, some parts of the global economy are going to come in, but the American consumer is now driving the train in a way.</p><p>If you look at American consumers, they are in great shape. Obviously, they're getting hit by high inflation right now, but they have a lot of excess savings that have accumulated during the pandemic, and that's across all income groups.</p><p>By my calculations, for a typical American household, they had $7,000 to $8,000 in excess savings as of June of this year. So if I'm paying $500 more each month for higher inflation and I have $7,000-$8,000 excess savings, you can do the math. It'll buy me some time, right? I can use my excess savings to supplement my income and offset the ill effects of high inflation.</p><p>Debt is low. The debt repayment burden is almost the lowest it has ever been. People locked in previously record low interest rates by refinancing. So they're not affected by high interest rates. You know, stock prices are falling, but house prices are rising. People are richer today.</p><p><b>Ask:</b>When it comes to home prices, I can't help but wonder if there's going to be a pretty serious cooling in the housing market. It is such an important part of the economy. In your opinion,<b>What will the housing market look like in the next year or two? What are the potential ripple effects of its cooling on other sectors of the economy?</b></p><p><b>A:</b>Oh, it's cold. This place quickly entered a state of ice. Mortgage rates are just below 6%, almost double what they were a year ago. Then take the higher interest rate, multiply it by the higher home price, and then look at the first time buyer's monthly payment, which is $500-600 more than it was a year ago. It is forbidden.</p><p>As a result, first-time homebuyers are being kept out of the market. And exchange buyers are locked in, right? Because the average interest rate on an outstanding mortgage, considering all the refinancing I've talked about earlier, is 3.5% to 4% So, if you sell your house, buy another home, get a mortgage, you'll go from 3 1/2, 4, to 6. It's a huge increase in payments. So people don't do it.</p><p>So, you'll see that home sales have dropped significantly and listings have started. I follow different markets across the country, I get lists emailed to me, and I can feel it. If I go back 6 months ago, there is nothing there, no inventory. But now the list is getting longer and longer. I expect home prices to decline in parts of the country, especially in areas that have been hit the most by the pandemic-the Southeast, Florida, and the Mountain West.</p><p>I expect prices to drop somewhat nationwide. We may be able to keep house prices flat here for two or three years, allowing household incomes, rents and construction costs to catch up. But this is based on the premise that there is no recession. If we go into a recession, then I think that's going to put real downward pressure on home prices.</p><p>I'd like to say two more points about this. It's by design, right? The Fed is raising interest rates to slow economic growth. This happens in sectors of the economy that are most sensitive to interest rates. Real estate is the most interest rate sensitive area of the economy. So, it's not surprising. It's exactly what you'd expect.</p><p>Secondly, I don't think home prices will crash because mortgages since the financial crisis and the housing crash more than a decade ago have been very good. I should disclose this: I sit on the board of MGIC, a national publicly traded mortgage insurance company, and I also chair the risk committee. So I've looked very closely at the insurance industry, which has been primitive since the collapse. The other thing is that it's all regular 30 years, 15 years fixed rate, early mortgage payments, nothing special.</p><p>Therefore, I don't think these pressures will cause prices to fall significantly. But prices are flat across the country, declining share in a fair portion of the market? Yes, I expected it. I would say that's exactly what the Fed wants to see.</p><p></body></html></p>","source":"sina","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Moody's Economist: The U.S. Could Be In Recession By Convincing Itself</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nMoody's Economist: The U.S. Could Be In Recession By Convincing Itself\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">环球市场播报</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2022-07-17 09:20</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><html><head></head><body>He added that the housing market has \"very rapidly fallen into a deep freeze\"</p><p>Mark Zandi, an economist for more than 30 years, says he has never seen so many people believe that a recession is coming.</p><p>Although he believes that the U.S. economy can still avoid such a downturn, market sentiment is so depressed that it carries its own risks-a self-fulfilling recession prophecy. The move follows data released by the U.S. government this week showing inflation reached its highest level in nearly 41 years.</p><p><b>Ask:</b>You lowered your GDP forecast for this year and next year. (Zandi now expects real growth to be 1% this year and 2% in 2023, compared with previous forecasts of 2% and 2.5%.)<b>What will happen in the next 18 to 24 months?</b></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/522238b85e5a6056ae5587a6bd09193b\" tg-width=\"550\" tg-height=\"366\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MCO\">Moody's</a>Zandi, chief economist of Analytics</p><p><b>A:</b>I still have no recession (in his prediction). It's clear that the risk of a recession is high-I mean, it's clear that when inflation is so high and the Fed is in a state of precaution 1 and rightly focused on bringing it down by raising interest rates, the market sentiment is bad, right?</p><p>I talk to CEOs, CFOs, investors, friends, family, and they think we're entering a recession. I've never seen anything like this before. I have seen a lot of business cycles. No one can predict a recession. But in this crisis, everyone is predicting a recession. So when sentiment is so fragile, it doesn't take much effort to push us into the market. I think with a little luck and some sound policymaking by the Fed, we will be able to avoid a recession. But I didn't say it very confidently.</p><p>I don't think we need a recession for inflation to come back. Oil prices will continue to rise. Natural gas prices will fall. As supply chain issues are resolved, we will see car prices fall, and we will get more car production. Commodity prices, and more broadly, commodity prices will rise.</p><p><b>Q: When you lowered your GDP growth forecast, you said that the possibility of continued economic expansion still exists. What the hell are you thinking?</b></p><p><b>A:</b>In my opinion, what makes me most comforting is that the firewall between a continuously growing economy and a recession is the American consumer. If American consumers could just hang on, do their part and spend as usual, we could avoid a recession. By the way, if American consumers hold on, they will also keep the global economy moving forward. You know, some parts of the global economy are going to come in, but the American consumer is now driving the train in a way.</p><p>If you look at American consumers, they are in great shape. Obviously, they're getting hit by high inflation right now, but they have a lot of excess savings that have accumulated during the pandemic, and that's across all income groups.</p><p>By my calculations, for a typical American household, they had $7,000 to $8,000 in excess savings as of June of this year. So if I'm paying $500 more each month for higher inflation and I have $7,000-$8,000 excess savings, you can do the math. It'll buy me some time, right? I can use my excess savings to supplement my income and offset the ill effects of high inflation.</p><p>Debt is low. The debt repayment burden is almost the lowest it has ever been. People locked in previously record low interest rates by refinancing. So they're not affected by high interest rates. You know, stock prices are falling, but house prices are rising. People are richer today.</p><p><b>Ask:</b>When it comes to home prices, I can't help but wonder if there's going to be a pretty serious cooling in the housing market. It is such an important part of the economy. In your opinion,<b>What will the housing market look like in the next year or two? What are the potential ripple effects of its cooling on other sectors of the economy?</b></p><p><b>A:</b>Oh, it's cold. This place quickly entered a state of ice. Mortgage rates are just below 6%, almost double what they were a year ago. Then take the higher interest rate, multiply it by the higher home price, and then look at the first time buyer's monthly payment, which is $500-600 more than it was a year ago. It is forbidden.</p><p>As a result, first-time homebuyers are being kept out of the market. And exchange buyers are locked in, right? Because the average interest rate on an outstanding mortgage, considering all the refinancing I've talked about earlier, is 3.5% to 4% So, if you sell your house, buy another home, get a mortgage, you'll go from 3 1/2, 4, to 6. It's a huge increase in payments. So people don't do it.</p><p>So, you'll see that home sales have dropped significantly and listings have started. I follow different markets across the country, I get lists emailed to me, and I can feel it. If I go back 6 months ago, there is nothing there, no inventory. But now the list is getting longer and longer. I expect home prices to decline in parts of the country, especially in areas that have been hit the most by the pandemic-the Southeast, Florida, and the Mountain West.</p><p>I expect prices to drop somewhat nationwide. We may be able to keep house prices flat here for two or three years, allowing household incomes, rents and construction costs to catch up. But this is based on the premise that there is no recession. If we go into a recession, then I think that's going to put real downward pressure on home prices.</p><p>I'd like to say two more points about this. It's by design, right? The Fed is raising interest rates to slow economic growth. This happens in sectors of the economy that are most sensitive to interest rates. Real estate is the most interest rate sensitive area of the economy. So, it's not surprising. It's exactly what you'd expect.</p><p>Secondly, I don't think home prices will crash because mortgages since the financial crisis and the housing crash more than a decade ago have been very good. I should disclose this: I sit on the board of MGIC, a national publicly traded mortgage insurance company, and I also chair the risk committee. So I've looked very closely at the insurance industry, which has been primitive since the collapse. The other thing is that it's all regular 30 years, 15 years fixed rate, early mortgage payments, nothing special.</p><p>Therefore, I don't think these pressures will cause prices to fall significantly. But prices are flat across the country, declining share in a fair portion of the market? Yes, I expected it. I would say that's exactly what the Fed wants to see.</p><p></body></html></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> source：<a href=\"https://finance.sina.com.cn/stock/usstock/c/2022-07-17/doc-imizmscv1978961.shtml?finpagefr=p_115\">环球市场播报</a></p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/522238b85e5a6056ae5587a6bd09193b","relate_stocks":{"MCO":"穆迪","BK4559":"巴菲特持仓","BK4112":"金融交易所和数据","BK4548":"巴美列捷福持仓"},"source_url":"https://finance.sina.com.cn/stock/usstock/c/2022-07-17/doc-imizmscv1978961.shtml?finpagefr=p_115","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/b0d1b7e8843deea78cc308b15114de44","article_id":"2252448578","content_text":"他补充说，房地产市场已经“非常迅速地陷入深度冻结”做了30多年经济学家的马克·赞迪说，他从未见过这么多人相信经济衰退即将来临。尽管他相信美国经济仍能避免这样的经济低迷，但市场情绪如此低迷，会带来自身的风险——这是一种自我实现的衰退预言。此前，美国政府本周公布的数据显示，通胀率达到了近41年来的最高水平。问：您下调了今年和明年的GDP预期。（赞迪现在预计，今年和2023年的实际增长率分别为1%和2%，而之前的预测分别为2%和2.5%。）未来18到24个月将会发生什么？穆迪分析公司首席经济学家赞迪答：我（在他的预测中）仍然没有衰退。很明显，经济衰退的风险很高——我的意思是，很明显，当通货膨胀如此之高，美联储处于一级防范状态，并正确地专注于通过提高利率来降低通货膨胀时，市场情绪很糟糕，对吗？我与首席执行官、首席财务官、投资者、朋友、家人交谈，他们认为我们正在进入衰退。我从来没见过这样的东西。我见过很多商业周期。没有人能预测经济衰退。但在这次危机中，每个人都在预测经济衰退。因此，当市场情绪如此脆弱时，不需要付出太多努力就能推动我们进入市场。我认为，只要有一点运气，加上美联储的一些合理的政策制定，我们将能够避免经济衰退。但我并没有很自信地说。我认为我们不需要经济衰退来让通货膨胀再次出现。油价将继续上涨。天然气价格将会下降。随着供应链问题得到解决，我们将看到汽车价格下降，我们将获得更多的汽车产量。商品价格，更广泛地说，商品价格将会上涨。问：您在下调GDP增长预期时曾表示，经济继续扩张的可能性仍然存在。你到底在想什么？答：在我看来，让我感到最欣慰的是，在持续增长的经济和衰退之间的防火墙是美国消费者。如果美国消费者能坚持下去，尽自己的一份力，像往常一样消费，我们就能避免经济衰退。顺便说一下，如果美国消费者坚持住，他们也将保持全球经济向前发展。你知道，全球经济的一些部分将会进入，但美国消费者现在在某种程度上是在驱动火车。如果你看看美国消费者，他们的状况很好。显然，他们现在正受到高通胀的打击，但他们有很多在疫情期间积累起来的过剩储蓄，这些储蓄遍及所有收入群体。根据我的计算，对于一个典型的美国家庭来说，截至今年6月，他们有7000至8000美元的超额储蓄。因此，如果我每个月要为更高的通货膨胀多支付500美元，而我有7000 - 8000美元的超额储蓄，你可以计算一下。这能给我争取点时间，对吧？我可以用多余的存款来补充我的收入，抵消高通货膨胀的不良影响。债务很低。债务偿还负担几乎是有史以来最低的。人们通过再融资锁定了此前创纪录的低利率。所以他们不受高利率的影响。你知道，股价在下跌，但房价在上涨。今天人们更富有了。问：说到房价，我不禁想知道，房地产市场是否会出现一场相当严重的降温。它是经济中如此重要的组成部分。在你看来，未来一两年住房市场会是什么样子？它的冷却对其他经济领域有什么潜在的连锁反应？答：哦，凉了。这里很快就进入了冰封状态。抵押贷款利率略低于6%，几乎是一年前的两倍。然后用更高的利率，乘以更高的房价，然后看首次购房者的月供，比一年前多了500- 600美元。这是禁止的。因此，首次购房者被挡在了市场之外。而换货买家是被锁定的，对吧？因为未偿还抵押贷款的平均利率，考虑到我之前说过的所有再融资，是3.5%到4%所以，如果你卖掉你的房子，再买一套房子，获得抵押贷款，你就会从3岁半，4岁，到6岁。这是付款的大幅增加。所以人们不会这么做。所以，你会看到房屋销售已经大幅下降，挂牌交易也开始了。我关注全国各地的不同市场，我收到电子邮件给我的清单，我能感觉到。如果我回到6个月前，那里什么都没有，没有库存。但是现在这个列表变得越来越长。我预计美国部分地区的房价会下降，尤其是在疫情影响最大的地区——东南部、佛罗里达州和西部山区。我预计全国范围内的价格会有所下降。我们或许可以让这里的房价在两三年内保持平稳，让家庭收入、租金和建筑成本赶上来。但这是以没有衰退为前提的。如果我们陷入衰退，那么我认为这将给房价带来真正的下行压力。关于这个我还想说两点。这是设计好的，对吧？美联储正在提高利率以减缓经济增长。这种情况发生在对利率最敏感的经济部门。房地产是经济中对利率最敏感的领域。所以，这并不令人惊讶。这正是你所期望的。其次，我不认为房价会崩盘，因为自金融危机以来的抵押贷款和十多年前的房地产崩盘都是非常好的。我应该透露一下：我是MGIC的董事会成员，MGIC是一家全国性的上市抵押贷款保险公司，我也是风险委员会的主席。所以我非常仔细地研究了保险业，它自崩溃以来一直是原始的。另一件事是，这都是普通的30年，15年固定利率，提前支付抵押贷款，没什么特别的。因此，我不认为这些压力会导致价格大幅下跌。但是价格在全国范围内持平，在相当一部分市场份额下降？是的，我预料到了。我想说，这正是美联储希望看到的。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"MCO":1}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1139,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9071837321,"gmtCreate":1657507717463,"gmtModify":1676536016422,"author":{"id":"3578208981838945","authorId":"3578208981838945","name":"211013能量飞车","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e583c75322dd4651672938ebba8683b7","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3578208981838945","idStr":"3578208981838945"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"👍","listText":"👍","text":"👍","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9071837321","repostId":"1100338233","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1100338233","kind":"news","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"致力于提供最及时的财经资讯，最专业的解读分析，覆盖宏观经济、金融机构、A股市场、上市公司、投资理财等财经领域。","home_visible":1,"media_name":"券商中国","id":"9","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d482d56459984e8c86a6a137295b3c4f"},"pubTimestamp":1657506320,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1100338233?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2022-07-11 10:25","market":"sh","language":"zh","title":"US stocks face major test as Putin warns of catastrophic consequences and foreign capital poures into Chinese assets","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1100338233","media":"券商中国","summary":"一系列警告，令全球能源市场再度紧张。","content":"<p><html><head></head><body>A series of warnings have renewed tension in global energy markets.</p><p>First, Russian President Vladimir Putin warned that continued sanctions on Russia due to the Russia-Ukraine conflict could have \"catastrophic\" consequences for global markets. Subsequently, German Chancellor Scholz also warned about the energy crisis, saying that the energy shortage may affect Germany for several years. On July 11, local time, Russia will close its main pipeline to Germany, Nord Stream 1, for 10 days of routine maintenance.</p><p>Faced with global energy tensions, US President Joe Biden will leave for the Middle East this week for a visit to Saudi Arabia. On the eve of his departure, his support rate in the United States plummeted again. According to the New York Post, according to the latest national poll data, Biden's support rate plummeted to 30%, a new low.</p><p>At the same time, U.S. stocks are about to face a major test: the earnings season amid expectations of a U.S. economic recession. Many Wall Street institutions have warned that U.S. stock profits are about to begin to decline. If the current trend is followed, the S&P 500 index may drop to 3,150 points within the year.</p><p>While Wall Street institutions are pessimistic about the outlook for US stocks, foreign capital is accelerating the allocation of Chinese assets. On July 9, according to media reports, BlackRock data showed that in June this year, European and American investors had set a record net purchase of Chinese assets. Among them, ETFs listed in the United States had a net inflow of US $4 billion into the Chinese market.</p><p>Putin warns: catastrophic consequences</p><p>The warning of the global energy crisis has sounded again.</p><p>On July 10, CCTV News reported that Russian President Vladimir Putin warned on the 8th local time that continued sanctions on Russia due to the Russia-Ukraine conflict may bring \"catastrophic\" consequences to the global market, and further sanctions may bring more serious, even catastrophic, consequences to the global energy market.</p><p>Putin stressed that the EU has imposed another round of sanctions on Russia with an oil embargo, and state-owned energy companies should be prepared for the EU's oil embargo. The prospect of restrictions was discussed at the last meeting of the fuel and energy complex.</p><p>Regarding the sanctions imposed by European countries, Putin said that European countries are trying to replace Russian energy through various channels. It is expected that the result of these actions will be higher natural gas prices in the spot market and higher energy costs for end consumers.</p><p>At the same time, the United States is also brewing a big move. On July 8, local time, the U.S. Treasury Department issued a statement stating that U.S. Treasury Secretary Yellen will visit Japan and Indonesia during her trip to Asia and discuss with the latter the issue of imposing sanctions on Russia, including the establishment of an anti-Russian global alliance. In response to Russia's military actions in Ukraine.</p><p>The U.S. Treasury Department pointed out in a statement that Yellen will discuss with partners the issue of \"price limits\" on Russian oil to limit Russia's fiscal revenue, and will coordinate efforts to reduce global impacts such as food security caused by Russian military operations.</p><p>Putin said at the government work conference held on July 8 that the so-called \"economic blitzkrieg\" imposed by \"unfriendly countries\" on Russia has failed, and some countries have imposed sanctions and restrictions on Russia, resulting in much greater damage to themselves.</p><p>Putin pointed out that despite the pressure of sanctions, the situation of Russia's fuel and energy complex remains stable, and some indicators have even increased. However, at the same time, it is necessary to prepare for the oil and gas embargo involved in the Western sanctions program, focus on building infrastructure, supplying energy to friendly countries and increasing diversified exports of oil and natural gas.</p><p>Russia is the world's second-largest oil exporter behind Saudi Arabia, the world's largest natural gas exporter and the world's largest wheat exporter. Europe needs to import 40% of its natural gas and 30% of its oil from Russia.</p><p>Germany is in emergency</p><p>After Putin issued a warning, German Chancellor Scholz issued a warning on the impact of the energy crisis on July 9, local time, saying that the energy shortage may affect Germany for several years.</p><p>Scholz said that even after winter has passed, measures to deal with energy shortages should continue to be retained. Germany's energy supply crisis is no longer a matter of days, but a matter of weeks, months and years to come.</p><p>Germany's electricity crisis has begun to spread from the commercial sector to workplaces, leisure centers and residences. Germany is limiting the supply of hot water, implementing a rationing system, dimming street lights and shutting down swimming pools.</p><p>As Russia slashed gas supplies to Germany last month, fuel costs rose sharply, plunging Europe's largest economy into its worst power crisis since the oil price shock in 1973.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/aa22d75734fd856bee688252a6f3f194\" tg-width=\"796\" tg-height=\"403\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p>According to media reports, Axel Gedaschko, president of the German Federation of Housing Enterprises, said that the situation in Germany is very serious. Social peace in Germany is in great danger.</p><p>As tensions over the Russia-Ukraine conflict escalate, German officials worry that things may continue to deteriorate. On July 11, local time, Russia will close its main pipeline to Germany, Nord Stream 1, for 10 days of routine maintenance. Many Germans fear it won't reopen.</p><p>German Deputy Chancellor and Minister of Economy and Climate Protection Habeck warned that the energy supply crisis has almost become a \"political nightmare\". He said that this will put Germany through a test that it has not experienced for a long time. Without political support, the economy and society will soon face division, the lack of gas will severely undermine social solidarity, and Germany must prepare for the worst.</p><p>Biden's Approval Rating Plunges</p><p>Faced with global energy tensions, U.S. President Joe Biden is trying to persuade other oil exporters to increase oil production.</p><p>According to Agence France-Presse in Washington, Biden said on July 9, local time, that he would leave for the Middle East this week and visit Saudi Arabia, aiming to strengthen the \"strategic partnership\" between the two countries. At the same time, Biden stressed that he would adhere to \"basic American values.\"</p><p>Biden commented in the Washington Post that he knew that many people disagreed with his decision to visit Saudi Arabia, but his own views on human rights issues were clear and consistent, and every time he visited abroad, he always put basic freedom issues on the agenda.</p><p>According to reports, Biden is expected to urge Saudi Arabia to increase oil production, thereby helping to ease rising fuel costs and inflation in the United States. At the same time, Biden's visit also marks a shift in the policy of refusing to engage with Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed.</p><p>On the eve of Biden's trip to the Middle East, his approval rating in the United States plummeted again. On July 9, local time, the New York Post reported that according to the latest national poll data, US President Biden's approval rate plummeted to 30%, a new low.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1e35411ebb570aea381ee1398ef668e8\" tg-width=\"545\" tg-height=\"379\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p>It should be pointed out that the lowest approval rate of former US President Donald Trump is 39%, which means that the current satisfaction of American voters with Biden is already lower than that of Trump. The New York Post stated that Trump's approval rate was 44% when he was in power for more than one year and five months, which is much higher than Biden's current 30%.</p><p>According to the New York Post, a daily follow-up survey of registered voters in the United States conducted by Civiqs, a polling agency, found that less than one-third of Americans praised Biden's work performance, while the dissatisfaction rate was as high as 57%. Among them, young voters between the ages of 18 and 34 had the lowest support rate for him, only 21%.</p><p>The biggest test for US stocks</p><p>At the same time, U.S. stocks are about to face a major test: the earnings season amid expectations of a U.S. economic recession.</p><p>Morgan Stanley warned in its latest report that the second-quarter results disclosure season will be the most critical test for U.S. stocks after the S&P 500 index ended its worst semi-annual performance since 1970.</p><p>The market believes that once recession expectations are combined with weak corporate earnings, the S&P 500 may fall by at least another 10%.</p><p>Regarding the financial report expectation for the second quarter of 2022, Wall Street analysts are generally pessimistic. Goldman Sachs said that U.S. stock profits are about to begin to decline. If the current trend is followed, the S&P 500 index may drop to 3,150 points within the year.</p><p>UBS Global Wealth Management said in a report that if the economic recession leads to a sharp drop in corporate earnings, the S&P 500 index may fall to 3,300 points, a cumulative drop of about 31% from the high point in January 2022.</p><p>At present, according to FactSet's forecast, the earnings per share of S&P 500 constituent stocks may increase by 4.1% year-on-year this quarter, and this will be the slowest growth rate since the fourth quarter of 2020. Revenue expectations are slightly upbeat, with 10.1% year-over-year growth expected, which would mark the sixth consecutive quarter in which revenue has increased by more than 10%.</p><p>Michael Arone, chief investment strategist at State Street Global, believes that companies will lower guidance and the earnings season may be disappointing. It further warned that the market is bracing for a challenging earnings season, but it is unclear how volatile this will bring to U.S. stocks.</p><p>Foreign capital is accelerating the allocation of Chinese assets</p><p>While Wall Street institutions are pessimistic about the outlook for US stocks, foreign capital is accelerating the allocation of Chinese assets.</p><p>On July 9, according to media reports, BlackRock data showed that in June this year, European and American investors had set a record net purchase of Chinese assets. Among them, ETFs listed in the United States had a net inflow of US $4 billion into the Chinese market, and ETFs listed in Europe, the Middle East and Africa had a net inflow of US $1.8 billion. The total net inflow of US $5.8 billion exceeded the US $4.3 billion set in January this year. record.</p><p>At the same time, data from Goldman Sachs also shows that China's overseas capital inflows have improved. Against the background of capital outflows of US $21 billion from other Asian markets in June, A-shares recorded northbound capital inflows of US $11 billion that month.</p><p>BlackRock investment strategist Natasha Sarkaria said that European investors are not really buying U.S. stocks, nor are they really buying European stocks, but Chinese stocks, which is a significant change in global capital flows.</p><p>In addition, Phillip Wool, head of investment at Rayliant, an asset management company focusing on emerging markets, also believes that under expectations of soaring inflation in the United States, the Federal Reserve is launching a series of rate hike, and U.S. stocks look \"bad.\" As investors look to diversify, China's stock market is likely to continue to rebound for much of this year, and even longer.</p><p>Recently, leading Wall Street institutions have also been more optimistic about Chinese assets. Among them, Citigroup upgraded Chinese stocks to overweight; JPMorgan Chase believes that China provides a \"safe haven\" for global stock markets; Goldman Sachs also has a constructive view on Chinese stocks.</p><p></body></html></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>US stocks face major test as Putin warns of catastrophic consequences and foreign capital poures into Chinese assets</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nUS stocks face major test as Putin warns of catastrophic consequences and foreign capital poures into Chinese assets\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/9\">\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/d482d56459984e8c86a6a137295b3c4f);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">券商中国 </p>\n<p class=\"h-time smaller\">2022-07-11 10:25</p>\n</div>\n</a>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><html><head></head><body>A series of warnings have renewed tension in global energy markets.</p><p>First, Russian President Vladimir Putin warned that continued sanctions on Russia due to the Russia-Ukraine conflict could have \"catastrophic\" consequences for global markets. Subsequently, German Chancellor Scholz also warned about the energy crisis, saying that the energy shortage may affect Germany for several years. On July 11, local time, Russia will close its main pipeline to Germany, Nord Stream 1, for 10 days of routine maintenance.</p><p>Faced with global energy tensions, US President Joe Biden will leave for the Middle East this week for a visit to Saudi Arabia. On the eve of his departure, his support rate in the United States plummeted again. According to the New York Post, according to the latest national poll data, Biden's support rate plummeted to 30%, a new low.</p><p>At the same time, U.S. stocks are about to face a major test: the earnings season amid expectations of a U.S. economic recession. Many Wall Street institutions have warned that U.S. stock profits are about to begin to decline. If the current trend is followed, the S&P 500 index may drop to 3,150 points within the year.</p><p>While Wall Street institutions are pessimistic about the outlook for US stocks, foreign capital is accelerating the allocation of Chinese assets. On July 9, according to media reports, BlackRock data showed that in June this year, European and American investors had set a record net purchase of Chinese assets. Among them, ETFs listed in the United States had a net inflow of US $4 billion into the Chinese market.</p><p>Putin warns: catastrophic consequences</p><p>The warning of the global energy crisis has sounded again.</p><p>On July 10, CCTV News reported that Russian President Vladimir Putin warned on the 8th local time that continued sanctions on Russia due to the Russia-Ukraine conflict may bring \"catastrophic\" consequences to the global market, and further sanctions may bring more serious, even catastrophic, consequences to the global energy market.</p><p>Putin stressed that the EU has imposed another round of sanctions on Russia with an oil embargo, and state-owned energy companies should be prepared for the EU's oil embargo. The prospect of restrictions was discussed at the last meeting of the fuel and energy complex.</p><p>Regarding the sanctions imposed by European countries, Putin said that European countries are trying to replace Russian energy through various channels. It is expected that the result of these actions will be higher natural gas prices in the spot market and higher energy costs for end consumers.</p><p>At the same time, the United States is also brewing a big move. On July 8, local time, the U.S. Treasury Department issued a statement stating that U.S. Treasury Secretary Yellen will visit Japan and Indonesia during her trip to Asia and discuss with the latter the issue of imposing sanctions on Russia, including the establishment of an anti-Russian global alliance. In response to Russia's military actions in Ukraine.</p><p>The U.S. Treasury Department pointed out in a statement that Yellen will discuss with partners the issue of \"price limits\" on Russian oil to limit Russia's fiscal revenue, and will coordinate efforts to reduce global impacts such as food security caused by Russian military operations.</p><p>Putin said at the government work conference held on July 8 that the so-called \"economic blitzkrieg\" imposed by \"unfriendly countries\" on Russia has failed, and some countries have imposed sanctions and restrictions on Russia, resulting in much greater damage to themselves.</p><p>Putin pointed out that despite the pressure of sanctions, the situation of Russia's fuel and energy complex remains stable, and some indicators have even increased. However, at the same time, it is necessary to prepare for the oil and gas embargo involved in the Western sanctions program, focus on building infrastructure, supplying energy to friendly countries and increasing diversified exports of oil and natural gas.</p><p>Russia is the world's second-largest oil exporter behind Saudi Arabia, the world's largest natural gas exporter and the world's largest wheat exporter. Europe needs to import 40% of its natural gas and 30% of its oil from Russia.</p><p>Germany is in emergency</p><p>After Putin issued a warning, German Chancellor Scholz issued a warning on the impact of the energy crisis on July 9, local time, saying that the energy shortage may affect Germany for several years.</p><p>Scholz said that even after winter has passed, measures to deal with energy shortages should continue to be retained. Germany's energy supply crisis is no longer a matter of days, but a matter of weeks, months and years to come.</p><p>Germany's electricity crisis has begun to spread from the commercial sector to workplaces, leisure centers and residences. Germany is limiting the supply of hot water, implementing a rationing system, dimming street lights and shutting down swimming pools.</p><p>As Russia slashed gas supplies to Germany last month, fuel costs rose sharply, plunging Europe's largest economy into its worst power crisis since the oil price shock in 1973.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/aa22d75734fd856bee688252a6f3f194\" tg-width=\"796\" tg-height=\"403\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p>According to media reports, Axel Gedaschko, president of the German Federation of Housing Enterprises, said that the situation in Germany is very serious. Social peace in Germany is in great danger.</p><p>As tensions over the Russia-Ukraine conflict escalate, German officials worry that things may continue to deteriorate. On July 11, local time, Russia will close its main pipeline to Germany, Nord Stream 1, for 10 days of routine maintenance. Many Germans fear it won't reopen.</p><p>German Deputy Chancellor and Minister of Economy and Climate Protection Habeck warned that the energy supply crisis has almost become a \"political nightmare\". He said that this will put Germany through a test that it has not experienced for a long time. Without political support, the economy and society will soon face division, the lack of gas will severely undermine social solidarity, and Germany must prepare for the worst.</p><p>Biden's Approval Rating Plunges</p><p>Faced with global energy tensions, U.S. President Joe Biden is trying to persuade other oil exporters to increase oil production.</p><p>According to Agence France-Presse in Washington, Biden said on July 9, local time, that he would leave for the Middle East this week and visit Saudi Arabia, aiming to strengthen the \"strategic partnership\" between the two countries. At the same time, Biden stressed that he would adhere to \"basic American values.\"</p><p>Biden commented in the Washington Post that he knew that many people disagreed with his decision to visit Saudi Arabia, but his own views on human rights issues were clear and consistent, and every time he visited abroad, he always put basic freedom issues on the agenda.</p><p>According to reports, Biden is expected to urge Saudi Arabia to increase oil production, thereby helping to ease rising fuel costs and inflation in the United States. At the same time, Biden's visit also marks a shift in the policy of refusing to engage with Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed.</p><p>On the eve of Biden's trip to the Middle East, his approval rating in the United States plummeted again. On July 9, local time, the New York Post reported that according to the latest national poll data, US President Biden's approval rate plummeted to 30%, a new low.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1e35411ebb570aea381ee1398ef668e8\" tg-width=\"545\" tg-height=\"379\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p>It should be pointed out that the lowest approval rate of former US President Donald Trump is 39%, which means that the current satisfaction of American voters with Biden is already lower than that of Trump. The New York Post stated that Trump's approval rate was 44% when he was in power for more than one year and five months, which is much higher than Biden's current 30%.</p><p>According to the New York Post, a daily follow-up survey of registered voters in the United States conducted by Civiqs, a polling agency, found that less than one-third of Americans praised Biden's work performance, while the dissatisfaction rate was as high as 57%. Among them, young voters between the ages of 18 and 34 had the lowest support rate for him, only 21%.</p><p>The biggest test for US stocks</p><p>At the same time, U.S. stocks are about to face a major test: the earnings season amid expectations of a U.S. economic recession.</p><p>Morgan Stanley warned in its latest report that the second-quarter results disclosure season will be the most critical test for U.S. stocks after the S&P 500 index ended its worst semi-annual performance since 1970.</p><p>The market believes that once recession expectations are combined with weak corporate earnings, the S&P 500 may fall by at least another 10%.</p><p>Regarding the financial report expectation for the second quarter of 2022, Wall Street analysts are generally pessimistic. Goldman Sachs said that U.S. stock profits are about to begin to decline. If the current trend is followed, the S&P 500 index may drop to 3,150 points within the year.</p><p>UBS Global Wealth Management said in a report that if the economic recession leads to a sharp drop in corporate earnings, the S&P 500 index may fall to 3,300 points, a cumulative drop of about 31% from the high point in January 2022.</p><p>At present, according to FactSet's forecast, the earnings per share of S&P 500 constituent stocks may increase by 4.1% year-on-year this quarter, and this will be the slowest growth rate since the fourth quarter of 2020. Revenue expectations are slightly upbeat, with 10.1% year-over-year growth expected, which would mark the sixth consecutive quarter in which revenue has increased by more than 10%.</p><p>Michael Arone, chief investment strategist at State Street Global, believes that companies will lower guidance and the earnings season may be disappointing. It further warned that the market is bracing for a challenging earnings season, but it is unclear how volatile this will bring to U.S. stocks.</p><p>Foreign capital is accelerating the allocation of Chinese assets</p><p>While Wall Street institutions are pessimistic about the outlook for US stocks, foreign capital is accelerating the allocation of Chinese assets.</p><p>On July 9, according to media reports, BlackRock data showed that in June this year, European and American investors had set a record net purchase of Chinese assets. Among them, ETFs listed in the United States had a net inflow of US $4 billion into the Chinese market, and ETFs listed in Europe, the Middle East and Africa had a net inflow of US $1.8 billion. The total net inflow of US $5.8 billion exceeded the US $4.3 billion set in January this year. record.</p><p>At the same time, data from Goldman Sachs also shows that China's overseas capital inflows have improved. Against the background of capital outflows of US $21 billion from other Asian markets in June, A-shares recorded northbound capital inflows of US $11 billion that month.</p><p>BlackRock investment strategist Natasha Sarkaria said that European investors are not really buying U.S. stocks, nor are they really buying European stocks, but Chinese stocks, which is a significant change in global capital flows.</p><p>In addition, Phillip Wool, head of investment at Rayliant, an asset management company focusing on emerging markets, also believes that under expectations of soaring inflation in the United States, the Federal Reserve is launching a series of rate hike, and U.S. stocks look \"bad.\" As investors look to diversify, China's stock market is likely to continue to rebound for much of this year, and even longer.</p><p>Recently, leading Wall Street institutions have also been more optimistic about Chinese assets. Among them, Citigroup upgraded Chinese stocks to overweight; JPMorgan Chase believes that China provides a \"safe haven\" for global stock markets; Goldman Sachs also has a constructive view on Chinese stocks.</p><p></body></html></p>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/cccb4060ead1a8adaaa889023510cde1","relate_stocks":{".DJI":"道琼斯","000001.SH":"上证指数"},"source_url":"","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1100338233","content_text":"一系列警告，令全球能源市场再度紧张。首先是，俄罗斯总统普京警告称，因俄乌冲突而继续对俄罗斯实施制裁，可能会给全球市场带来“灾难性”后果。随后，德国总理朔尔茨也对能源危机发出警告称，能源短缺问题或将影响德国数年之久。当地时间7月11日，俄罗斯将关闭其通往德国的主要管道北溪1号，进行为期10天的常规维护。面对全球能源的紧张格局，美国总统拜登将于本周启程前往中东地区，对沙特阿拉伯进行访问。在启程前夕，其在美国国内的支持率再度暴跌，据美国《纽约邮报》报道，一项全美最新民调数据称，拜登的支持率暴跌至30%，再创新低。与此同时，美股也即将面临重大的考验：美国经济衰退预期之下的财报季。华尔街多家机构警告称，美股利润即将开始下滑，如果按照现在的趋势，标普500指数在年内有可能下探至3150点。当华尔街机构对美股展望悲观的同时，外资正在加速配置中国资产。7月9日，据媒体报道，贝莱德数据显示，今年6月，欧美投资者净买入中国资产已经创出纪录。其中，在美国上市的ETF向中国市场净流入40亿美元。普京警告：灾难性后果全球能源危机的警告再度响起。7月10日，央视新闻报道称，俄罗斯总统普京于当地时间8日警告称，因俄乌冲突而继续对俄罗斯实施制裁，可能会给全球市场带来“灾难性”后果，进一步实施制裁可能会给全球能源市场带来更加严重的后果，甚至是灾难性的后果。普京强调，欧盟对俄罗斯实行了石油禁运的又一轮制裁，国有能源公司应该对欧盟的石油禁运做好准备，限制的前景在上一次燃料能源综合体会议上讨论过。对于欧洲国家的制裁措施，普京表示，欧洲国家正在通过各种途径试图取代俄罗斯的能源，预计这些行动的结果将是现货市场上天然气价格上涨，以及终端消费者的能源成本上升。与此同时，美国方面也酝酿大动作。当地时间7月8日，美国财政部发表声明称，美国财政部长耶伦将在亚洲之行期间访问日本、印度尼西亚，并与后者讨论对俄实施制裁压力问题，其中包括建立反俄全球联盟，以应对俄罗斯在乌克兰的军事行动。美国财政部在声明中指出，耶伦将与合作伙伴讨论给俄罗斯石油“限价”问题，以限制俄罗斯的财政收入，并将协调努力，以减少俄罗斯军事行动带来的粮食安全等全球性影响。普京在7月8日举行的政府工作会议上表示，“不友好国家”对俄罗斯实施的所谓“经济闪电战”已经失败，一些国家对俄罗斯实施制裁性的限制措施，结果对它们自身造成的损害要大得多。普京指出，尽管有制裁压力，俄罗斯燃料和能源综合体的状况仍然稳定，一些指标甚至出现增长，但与此同时也必须为西方制裁方案涉及的油气禁运做好准备，应重点建设基础设施，向友好国家供应能源，增加石油和天然气的多样化出口。俄罗斯是世界上第二大石油出口国，仅次于沙特阿拉伯，也是世界上最大的天然气出口国和世界上最大的小麦出口国。欧洲40%的天然气和30%的石油需要从俄罗斯进口。德国告急在普京发布警告后，德国总理朔尔茨于当地时间7月9日对能源危机的影响发出警告称，能源短缺问题或将影响德国数年之久。朔尔茨表示，即使在冬季过去之后，应对能源短缺的措施也应继续保留，德国的能源供应危机已经不是几天的问题，而是未来数周、数月、数年的问题。德国的电力危机，已经开始从商业领域蔓延到工作场所、休闲中心和住宅，德国正在限量供应热水、实行配给制度，调暗路灯并关闭游泳池。由于俄罗斯上个月大幅削减了对德国的天然气供应，推动燃料成本的大幅上升，使这一欧洲最大的经济体陷入了1973年石油价格冲击以来最严重的电力危机。据媒体报道，德国住房企业联合会主席 Axel Gedaschko 表示，德国的形势非常严峻。德国的社会和平正处于极大的危险之中。随着俄乌冲突的紧张局势升级，德国官员们担心事态可能会继续恶化。当地时间7月11日，俄罗斯将关闭其通往德国的主要管道北溪1号，进行为期10天的常规维护。许多德国人担心它不会重新开放。德国副总理兼经济与气候保护部部长哈贝克警告称，能源供应危机几乎成了“政治噩梦”。他表示，这将让德国经历很久未曾经受过的考验。如果没有政治支持，经济和社会将很快面临分裂，天然气的缺乏将严重破坏社会团结，德国必须为最坏的情况做好准备。拜登的支持率暴跌面对全球能源的紧张格局，美国总统拜登正在尝试说服其他石油出口国增加石油产量。据法新社华盛顿消息，拜登于当地时间7月9日表示，他将于本周启程前往中东地区，并对沙特阿拉伯进行访问，旨在加强两国的“战略伙伴关系”。同时，拜登强调将坚持“基本的美国价值观”。拜登在《华盛顿邮报》上发表评论表示，他知道很多人不同意他访问沙特的决定，但他本人在人权问题上的观点是清楚和一贯的，而且每次出国访问总会把基本自由问题列入议程。报道称，预计拜登将敦促沙特增加石油产量，从而有助于缓解美国国内不断上升的燃油成本和通胀。同时，拜登的访问也标志着拒绝与沙特王储穆罕默德交往的政策发生了转变。在拜登前往中东地区的前夕，其在美国国内的支持率再度暴跌。当地时间7月9日，美国《纽约邮报》报道称，一项全美最新民调数据称，美国总统拜登的支持率暴跌至30%，再创新低。需要指出的是，美国前任总统唐纳德·特朗普的最低支持率为39%，意味着，当前美国选民对拜登的满意度已经低于了特朗普。《纽约邮报》表示，特朗普执政1年5个多月的时候的支持率为44%，比拜登如今的30%也高出不少。《纽约邮报》称，民调机构Civiqs对美国注册选民进行的每日跟踪调查发现，仅剩不到1/3的美国人对拜登的工作表现表示赞赏，而不满的比例高达57%，其中年龄在18岁至34岁之间的年轻选民对他的支持率最低，只有21%。美股的最大考验与此同时，美股也即将面临重大考验：美国经济衰退预期之下的财报季。摩根士丹利在最新发布的报告中警告称，在标普500指数结束1970年以来最糟糕的半年度表现之后，二季度的业绩披露季将是美国股市的最关键考验。市场认为，一旦经济衰退预期叠加企业盈利疲软，可能会让标普500指数再跌至少10%。对于2022年二季度财报预期，华尔街分析师总体比较悲观。高盛表示，美股利润即将开始下滑，如果按照现在的趋势，标普500指数在年内有可能下探至3150点。瑞银全球财富管理公司在报告中表示，如果经济衰退导致企业盈利大幅下降，标普500指数可能会跌至3300点，较2022年1月的高点累计跌幅约31%。目前，根据FactSet的预测显示，标普500指数成分股本季度每股收益或同比增长4.1%，而这将是2020年四季度以来最慢的增长速度。营收预期略显乐观，预计同比增长10.1%，这将标志着营收连续第六个季度增幅超过10%。道富环球首席投资策略师Michael Arone认为，企业会降低指引，财报季可能将令人失望。其进一步警告称，市场正准备迎接一个具有挑战性的财报季，但尚不清楚这将给美股带来多大的波动。外资正在加速配置中国资产当华尔街机构对美股展望悲观的同时，外资正在加速配置中国资产。7月9日，据媒体报道，贝莱德数据显示，今年6月，欧美投资者净买入中国资产已经创出纪录。其中，在美国上市的ETF向中国市场净流入40亿美元，在欧洲、中东和非洲地区上市的ETF净流入18亿美元，合计达58亿美元的净流入超过了今年1月创下的43亿美元的纪录。同时，高盛的数据也显示，中国的海外资金流入有所改善，在6月亚洲其他市场资金流出210亿美元的背景下，A股当月录得110亿美元北向资金流入。贝莱德投资策略师Natasha Sarkaria表示，欧洲投资者并没有真的在买美国股票，也没有真的在买欧洲股票，而是在买中国股票，这是全球资金流动的一个显著变化。另外，专注于新兴市场的资产管理公司Rayliant的投资主管Phillip Wool也认为，在美国通胀飙升预期之下，美联储正在展开一系列的加息，美股看起来“很糟糕”。随着投资者寻求多元化投资，中国股市可能在今年大部分时间内继续反弹，甚至会持续到更长时间。近期，华尔街头部机构对中国资产的预期也较为乐观。其中，花旗将中国股票升为超配；摩根大通认为，中国为全球股市提供了一个“安全避风港”；高盛也对中国股票持有建设性观点。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"000001.SH":0.9,".DJI":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1256,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9071832259,"gmtCreate":1657507470572,"gmtModify":1676536016367,"author":{"id":"3578208981838945","authorId":"3578208981838945","name":"211013能量飞车","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e583c75322dd4651672938ebba8683b7","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3578208981838945","idStr":"3578208981838945"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"👍","listText":"👍","text":"👍","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9071832259","repostId":"2250524988","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"2250524988","kind":"highlight","pubTimestamp":1657507058,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/2250524988?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2022-07-11 10:37","market":"hk","language":"zh","title":"Inflation is hard to bear! Nearly 4.5 million UK households are in'serious financial distress', survey shows","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2250524988","media":"智通财经网","summary":"一项调查显示，自去年10月以来，面临严重财务压力的英国家庭数量增加了近60%，高于疫情期间的任何时候。","content":"<p><html><head></head><body>Zhitong Finance APP has learned that a survey shows that the number of British households facing severe financial pressure has increased by nearly 60% since October last year, higher than at any time during the epidemic.</p><p>Royal Financial Equity Trust and<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BRS\">Bristow</a>Researchers at the University of Ernest estimate that 16% of British families (that is, 4.4 million) are in \"severe financial difficulties\", and 20% of British families are \"struggling\" to get by.</p><p>The worst cost-of-living crisis of this generation is taking a growing toll, research shows. This pressure will intensify further by October, when energy bills will soar again and inflation is expected to exceed 11%.</p><p>The UK is in a period of political turmoil after Prime Minister Johnson was forced to resign last week, and the government is under pressure to provide more help to affected British families. In May this year, the British government under Johnson announced an additional 15 billion pounds (about 18 billion US dollars) in living support expenses, but more and more people are calling for additional assistance to be announced before the next prime minister is selected.</p><p>Mubin Haq, chief executive of the Royal Financial Equity Trust: \"Times are tough for everyone, but those with the lowest incomes are most affected by rising prices.\" \"Wages have largely stagnated and can no longer keep pace with inflation, and Social Security is lower in real terms than it was a decade ago. There is an urgent need for a more comprehensive, longer-term plan to ensure that living standards do not fall further.\"</p><p>The survey revealed that more than half believed their financial situation was worse than it was earlier in the pandemic, and when the same question was asked last October, only a third believed their financial situation had worsened.</p><p>The survey also revealed that in severe financial hardship, 71% reduced food quality, 36% sold or pawned property, and 27% canceled or no longer renewed insurance. \"What is particularly worrying is that people may be accumulating future financial problems for themselves,\" said Sharon Collard, a professor at the University of Bristol.</p><p></body></html></p>","source":"highlight_zhitongcaijin","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Inflation is hard to bear! Nearly 4.5 million UK households are in'serious financial distress', survey shows</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nInflation is hard to bear! Nearly 4.5 million UK households are in'serious financial distress', survey shows\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">智通财经网</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2022-07-11 10:37</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><html><head></head><body>Zhitong Finance APP has learned that a survey shows that the number of British households facing severe financial pressure has increased by nearly 60% since October last year, higher than at any time during the epidemic.</p><p>Royal Financial Equity Trust and<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BRS\">Bristow</a>Researchers at the University of Ernest estimate that 16% of British families (that is, 4.4 million) are in \"severe financial difficulties\", and 20% of British families are \"struggling\" to get by.</p><p>The worst cost-of-living crisis of this generation is taking a growing toll, research shows. This pressure will intensify further by October, when energy bills will soar again and inflation is expected to exceed 11%.</p><p>The UK is in a period of political turmoil after Prime Minister Johnson was forced to resign last week, and the government is under pressure to provide more help to affected British families. In May this year, the British government under Johnson announced an additional 15 billion pounds (about 18 billion US dollars) in living support expenses, but more and more people are calling for additional assistance to be announced before the next prime minister is selected.</p><p>Mubin Haq, chief executive of the Royal Financial Equity Trust: \"Times are tough for everyone, but those with the lowest incomes are most affected by rising prices.\" \"Wages have largely stagnated and can no longer keep pace with inflation, and Social Security is lower in real terms than it was a decade ago. There is an urgent need for a more comprehensive, longer-term plan to ensure that living standards do not fall further.\"</p><p>The survey revealed that more than half believed their financial situation was worse than it was earlier in the pandemic, and when the same question was asked last October, only a third believed their financial situation had worsened.</p><p>The survey also revealed that in severe financial hardship, 71% reduced food quality, 36% sold or pawned property, and 27% canceled or no longer renewed insurance. \"What is particularly worrying is that people may be accumulating future financial problems for themselves,\" said Sharon Collard, a professor at the University of Bristol.</p><p></body></html></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> source：<a href=\"http://www.zhitongcaijing.com/content/detail/752654.html\">智通财经网</a></p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7c8a532c32a6bb24a17bf846cb739b10","relate_stocks":{},"source_url":"http://www.zhitongcaijing.com/content/detail/752654.html","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/6ca2dcdccfa2217fb20a0351f4efe814","article_id":"2250524988","content_text":"智通财经APP获悉，一项调查显示，自去年10月以来，面临严重财务压力的英国家庭数量增加了近60%，高于疫情期间的任何时候。英国皇家金融公平信托基金会和布里斯托尔大学的研究人员预估，16%的英国家庭(即440万)处于“严重的经济困难”中，还有20%的英国家庭“挣扎”度日。研究表明，这一代人中最严重的生活成本危机正在造成越来越大的损失。到10月份，这种压力将进一步加剧，届时能源账单将再次飙升，预计通胀率将超过11%。在英国首相约翰逊上周被迫辞职后，英国正处于政治动荡时期，政府面临着向受影响的英国家庭提供更多帮助的压力。今年5月，约翰逊领导下的英国政府宣布额外提供150亿英镑(约合180亿美元)的生活支持费用，但越来越多的人呼吁在下一任首相选定之前就宣布额外的援助。英国皇家金融公平信托基金会首席执行官Mubin  Haq：“对每个人来说，日子都很艰难，但那些收入最低的人受到价格上涨的影响最大。”“工资水平基本上已经停滞，无法再跟上通胀的步伐，按实际价值计算，社会保障比十年前要低。人们迫切需要一项更全面、更长期的计划，以确保生活水平不会进一步下降。”调查显示，超过一半的人认为他们的财务状况比疫情早期更糟糕，当同样的问题在去年10月被问及时，只有三分之一的人认为其财务状况恶化了。调查还显示，在严重的经济困难中，71%的人降低了食物质量，36%的人卖掉或典当了财产，27%的人取消或不再更新保险。布里斯托尔大学教授Sharon  Collard表示:“尤其令人担忧的是，人们可能在为自己积攒未来的财务问题。”","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1212,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9070886632,"gmtCreate":1657043377426,"gmtModify":1676535937419,"author":{"id":"3578208981838945","authorId":"3578208981838945","name":"211013能量飞车","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e583c75322dd4651672938ebba8683b7","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3578208981838945","idStr":"3578208981838945"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"👍","listText":"👍","text":"👍","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9070886632","repostId":"1128701140","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1128701140","kind":"news","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"有深度、有温度、有态度，在这里读懂财富。","home_visible":1,"media_name":"金融八卦女频道","id":"63","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/01a8ace21e1041b4bb972ca835e331c7"},"pubTimestamp":1656917579,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1128701140?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2022-07-04 14:52","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"Wenzhou's richest man fought Wall Street, JPMorgan Chase lost 800 million","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1128701140","media":"金融八卦女频道","summary":"这次华尔街失算了，金融领域华尔街还是天下第一，但他们的对手也不是没有长进。中国企业通过多年的努力，已经获得了丰富的市场经验和丰厚的资本，被别人摁在地上暴打时，还是有能力反击的。时隔三个多月，全地球人都","content":"<p><html><head></head><body>This time Wall Street miscalculated. In the financial field, Wall Street is still the best in the world, but their opponents are not without progress. Through years of hard work, Chinese enterprises have gained rich market experience and rich capital. When they are pressed on the ground and beaten by others, they still have the ability to fight back. After more than three months, the \"Demon Nickel Short Squeeze War\" known to all people on earth has finally come to an end:</p><p>Xiang Guangda, the richest man in Wenzhou, and his Tsingshan Group escaped unscathed, and Wall Street giant JPMorgan Chase cut its meat and lost 120 million US dollars (about 800 million yuan).</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ed3f5a82dbe41eeb1131b5fe7f4f8e37\" tg-width=\"693\" tg-height=\"442\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>▲ Xiang Guangda, the actual controller of Tsingshan Holdings/Source: Internet</p><p>According to news on June 29, Tsingshan Holding Group safely withdrew from most of its short nickel positions on the London Metal Exchange (LME). The size of positions has been reduced to about 30,000 tons, far lower than the peak of over 150,000 tons at the time of the incident, and these positions are not held through JPMorgan Chase.</p><p>This is probably the result of negotiations between the two parties. Tsingshan Group left dignity for Wall Street bosses. Otherwise, according to the situation at that time, 120 million US dollars was far from enough.</p><p>Friends who are concerned about this matter may still be \"confused\". Isn't the legendary mastermind behind the scenes the Swiss commodity giant \"Glencore\"? Why did JPMorgan Chase lose money in the end?</p><p>What exactly happened in these three months?</p><p><b>/Qingshan counterkills, Wall Street miscalculates/</b></p><p>Briefly sort out the entire process of the Lunni incident:</p><p>On March 7, 2022, Lunni futures soared from US $29,000/ton to US $55,000/ton, a new high in 15 years.</p><p>On March 8, Lunni futures rose from US $60,000/ton to US $100,000/ton in a straight line, and the entire process took no more than one hour.</p><p>At 8:15 on March 8 (UK time), Lunkin Exchange suspended all nickel contract trading and canceled trading after 0:00 on March 8, commonly known as \"unplugging the network cable\".</p><p>On March 9, Xiang Guangda admitted that he had been squeezed short by foreign capital and had obtained sufficient spot goods through various channels.</p><p>On March 15, Tsingshan Group stated that it had reached a \"silent agreement\" with a syndicate of futures bank creditors. During this period, Tsingshan's positions will not be closed, and Tsingshan Group will reduce its positions thereafter.</p><p>On March 16, nickel trading at Lunjin Exchange resumed.</p><p>On June 29, Tsingshan Group withdrew from most of its short nickel positions in Lunjin, and the incident ended.</p><p>After reading this, people who don't know the details will still have questions, why is Tsingshan Group targeted by Wall Street capital?</p><p>We can't really blame Wall Street Capital. Qingshan Group has cultivated itself as \"Tang Monk Meat\". Who doesn't want to eat it?</p><p>Tsingshan Group has three fatal loopholes in this matter:</p><p>1. The nickel produced by Tsingshan Group is different from the delivery products traded by Lunjin Exchange. The delivered products of Lunjin Exchange are electrolytic nickel with a purity of more than 99.8%, while the nickel produced by Qingshan Group is only about 70% high nickel and ferronickel with a content of about 10%. 2. There is a problem with the hedging operation of Tsingshan Group. At that time, it bought 200,000 tons of short futures orders, but the entire nickel inventory of Lunjin Exchange was only 80,000 tons. That is to say, even if it bought all the nickel of Lunjin Exchange, it could not make up half of its short futures orders. 3. Usually, when Tsingshan Group meets the delivery period, it will buy nickel with Russia to close its position. The conflict between Russia and Ukraine led to a reversal of market logic, and Russian nickel was embargoed. Tsingshan Group did not respond to this news in time. To sum up, although Tsingshan Group has a rich family, it has played all its good cards at this card table, with only \"1 to 3\" in its hand, and others can't afford to play any cards. In this situation, how could Wall Street capital, which was born bloodthirsty, let go of this seemingly \"must-win\" hunt? It's not like Wall Street hasn't done this before.</p><p>Therefore, Wall Street Capital quickly raised nickel futures prices on March 7 and March 8, quickly raising things worth 20,000 to 30,000 US dollars to 100,000 US dollars, breaking the \"highest record for any kind of asset price fluctuations.\"</p><p>The situation at that time was that Tsingshan Group would have to lose hundreds of billions if it could not ship goods, and if it had no money, it would have to sell Indonesian nickel ore. The new energy industry chain that Chinese companies have worked so hard to build might be severely hit.</p><p>This time Wall Street miscalculated. In the financial field, Wall Street is still the best in the world, but their opponents are not without progress. Through years of hard work, Chinese enterprises have gained rich market experience and rich capital. When they are pressed on the ground and beaten by others, they still have the ability to fight back.</p><p>Although we didn't know who started it at that time, on March 9th, Qingshan Group's counterattack began. Tsingshan Holdings responded that it will replace domestic metal nickel plates with its high matte nickel, which has been allocated to sufficient spot for delivery through various channels.</p><p>Judging from the gossip, several large enterprises in the industry participated in this replacement at that time, which can be described as united as one. Xiang Guangda's original words were: \"After receiving many phone calls, relevant state departments and leaders are very supportive of Qingshan.\"</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5c59e434fbd20c251852e2cf114ed5ca\" tg-width=\"509\" tg-height=\"227\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ccda0030b524a1d6ae7153f6bcfe1ae9\" tg-width=\"494\" tg-height=\"202\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>So, why didn't the final result be that Tsingshan Group took out 200,000 tons of nickel delivery products and handed them over to Wall Street takeovers, leaving them with nowhere to store the goods. In the end, they could only sell them at a low price and lose tens of billions of dollars?</p><p>Collecting 200,000 tons of nickel delivery products can certainly solve the urgent need, but what should domestic companies do if so much nickel is handed over? Do all companies stop production and wait for a few months before new nickel is produced before resuming production?</p><p>Doing so, of course, is very relieving, but the price paid is too great.</p><p>As a mature entrepreneur, Xiang Guangda negotiated with his opponents from March 9th to March 15th with the confidence that he could produce 200,000 tons of delivery products, and finally reached a \"silent agreement\".</p><p>Judging from the news on June 29, Tsingshan Group reduced its short position to turn the corner. Although Wall Street institutions lost a small amount of money, they avoided the expansion of losses, which is an acceptable result for both sides.</p><p><b>/Who is the real mastermind behind the \"Demon Nickel War\"? /</b></p><p>When the incident happened in early March, someone pressed the calculator and said that Tsingshan Group might lose 8 billion to 12 billion dollars at that time, equivalent to hundreds of billions of RMB. Short-squeezing such a large amount of funds will inevitably involve a lot of funds.</p><p>At that time, some people suspected that commodity giant Glencore was behind the scenes in order to obtain Tsingshan's 60% stake in Indonesian nickel mines. Founded in 1974, Glencore is the largest company in Switzerland, with an operating income of US $215.11 billion. Its business scope covers the supply of mineral products, energy products and agricultural products.</p><p>But it is impossible for Glencore to spend so much money by itself. There must be a team behind it. Judging from the current situation, at least now, JPMorgan Chase and Elliott, two \"wolves from Wall Street\", have been forced out.</p><p>In April, JPMorgan Chase sold it out in its first-quarter earnings report, which showed a loss of $120 million in nickel-related businesses.</p><p>Except for participating in the \"demon nickel short squeeze\" incident in March, it is difficult to have any other reason to be convincing that the veteran Wall Street investment banks lost hundreds of millions of dollars on a single futures commodity in the first quarter. Afterwards, relevant information also proved that it was the largest counterparty of Tsingshan Group's large short positions.</p><p>Three months ago, of Tsingshan's more than 150,000 tons of nickel short positions, about 50,000 tons were held through JPMorgan Chase's over-the-counter positions. At that time, Tsingshan Holding Group once owed JPMorgan Chase about US $1 billion in margin. In just three months, JPMorgan Chase fell into the quagmire of losses of $120 million.</p><p>With such a big hole in finance, the person in charge has to say something.</p><p>Jamie Dimon, CEO of JPMorgan Chase, said reluctantly: \"We had a bit of a loss this quarter, and we will try to tide over it. We will analyze what we have done wrong and what different measures can be taken afterwards.\"</p><p>This sentence is very official, but it has two meanings:</p><p>First, they are doing things for customers. JPMorgan Chase lost money, and so did their customers. As for who the customer is, whether it is Glencore or not, it is not said. Second, they have reservations about Lunjin Institute's behavior of \"unplugging the network cable\", and maybe they have to \"take measures\". It's hard to say what measures JPMorgan Chase will take, but some people have already started to take action. They don't seem to give up and are still making their final struggles.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/373adb34449d811ea165e417eea1bae6\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"634\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>▲ Source/vision china</p><p>According to the announcement issued by the Hong Kong Stock Exchange on June 6, on June 1, the well-known American investment company \"Elliott Management Company\" attacked them, arguing that the Lonkin Exchange \"cancelled the transaction after 00:00 UK time on March 8, 2022. The behavior is illegal.\"</p><p>Elliott's two hedge funds sued the Hong Kong Stock Exchange, its subsidiary LME and its clearing company LME Clear Limite to the British High Court, preparing to claim about US $456 million, or about 3 billion yuan.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9692a7e3296316fcd1fde0c491252117\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"712\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Elliott Management Company was founded in 1977, and its fund management scale will exceed US $51.5 billion by the end of 2021. It is a veritable wolf of Wall Street and is known for its tough, aggressive, and ruthless investment style.</p><p>Just how fierce is Elliot? It can make a country uneasy.</p><p>At the end of 2000, Argentina was in turmoil, with five consecutive presidents changing in half a month, and its foreign debt of up to 150 billion U.S. dollars was unable to repay. Just as other financial institutions avoided it in time, Elliott spent $617 million to bargain-hunting Argentine Treasury Bond.</p><p>In the following nine years, Argentina proposed a debt restructuring plan in order to revive the economy. The creditors headed by Elliott ruthlessly refused twice and took Argentina to the American court. I can't imagine how ruthless this move is. It can be compared to the current creditors who disagree with Evergrande's restructuring. What will happen to Evergrande?</p><p>On June 16, 2017, the U.S. Supreme Court finally ruled against Argentina. Argentina tearfully took out $2.28 billion to settle. This single Elliott earned 3.7 times, but every penny was the hard-earned money of the Argentine people.</p><p>As for how many Wall Street capital institutions are involved in this matter, it is still unclear. If Elliott can win the lawsuit with HKEx, it may be possible to see. Because when \"dividing the meat\", the wolves on Wall Street will be willing to go out.</p><p><b>/\"China's Nickel King\" pinches Musks' fate? /</b></p><p>According to national business daily, relevant personnel of Glencore said in response to whether they were involved in the matter, \"The above statement is total nonsense.\"</p><p>However, the report also pointed out that some insiders believe that Glencore is an indirect participant in this wave of market even if it is not directly involved. The reason why the market speculates this is that the competition for metal nickel has entered a fierce stage on a global scale.</p><p>Nickel is one of the important raw materials for manufacturing new energy ternary lithium batteries, accounting for nearly 30% of the total battery cost. If it is a high-nickel and ultra-high-nickel battery, the proportion will be even higher. However, nickel is unevenly distributed all over the world, making it difficult to mine.</p><p>\"Nickel anxiety\" is a common problem among new energy vehicle bosses. Even Tesla CEO Musk said that the shortage of nickel raw materials is the biggest obstacle to the production of electric vehicle batteries.</p><p>Data show that from March 2021 to March 2022, the nickel inventory of Lunjin Exchange continued to decline, with a drop of nearly 70%. The main reason is that nickel delivery products are bought in large quantities for the manufacture of new energy batteries. It is estimated that the nickel gap from 2023 to 2025 will be-25,600 tons,-27,900 tons, and-65,300 tons respectively.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4245aa1e37a9a023ca6069abaa0dccba\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"631\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Isn't this just God feeding Xiang Guangda with a rice bowl?</p><p>Xiang Guangda was born in an ordinary worker's family in Shacheng Town, Longwan, Wenzhou in 1958. After graduation, he worked in a state-owned enterprise for eight years and became the workshop director.</p><p>In 1988, Xiang Guangda was ready to \"stand at thirty\". He gave up the \"iron rice bowl\" that everyone envied at that time, and jointly founded \"Zhejiang Ouhai Automobile Door and Window Manufacturing Company\" with Zhang Jimin and other relatives.</p><p>Because of his emphasis on research and development, Xiang Guangda's automobile doors and windows business is very good. At the end of 1993, he jointly developed automobile rim steel with a Chinese automobile wheel factory, and invested 24 million yuan to establish \"Zhejiang Fengye Special-shaped Steel Company\". In 1995, the company was reorganized and \"Zhejiang Fengye Group Co., Ltd.\" was established, officially entering the stainless steel industry.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1739f693edc5047788bfff78b4944285\" tg-width=\"400\" tg-height=\"288\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>After 2005, the entire steel industry entered a destocking cycle. Xiang Guangda realized that if it didn't change, the enterprise would sooner or later be submerged in the torrent of stainless steel enterprises.</p><p>Xiang Guangda invested 10 billion yuan in the research and development of new technologies, took the lead in introducing the internationally advanced rotary kiln-submerged furnace (RKEF) smelting process, and led a team to develop the new technology of RKEF-AOD furnace dual method, which reduced the total energy consumption of stainless steel smelting. It was cut by 50% and saved 800 yuan per ton.</p><p>\"60%-70% of stainless steel is nickel, so who produces nickel? It is produced by foreigners, but we don't produce it ourselves.\" Xiang Guangda put the production of \"nickel\" on the agenda again.</p><p>During the financial crisis in 2008, Xiang Guangda took the opportunity to acquire the Indonesian nickel mine with the highest nickel reserves in the world. Tsingshan Holdings and Indonesia Eight Star Investment Co., Ltd. jointly established Sulawesi Mining Investment Co., Ltd., and obtained the mining right of laterite nickel mine with an area of 47,000 hectares.</p><p>The mining park was quickly established, and in February 2010, nickel produced abroad by a Chinese company for the first time was successfully shipped back to China. Tsingshan Holding Group has conquered the technology of purifying high matte nickel with laterite nickel ore. After the operation, Xiang Guangda has opened up the upstream and downstream of nickel production.</p><p>With \"nickel\" in hand, there is no need to worry about stainless steel. Tsingshan Holding Group has more than ten stainless steel subsidiaries. From 2009 to 2019, Tsingshan Holding's stainless steel output increased from one million tons to tens of millions of tons, and its sales increased from tens of billions to more than 200 billion yuan. At present, it has secured the throne of the world's largest stainless steel manufacturer.</p><p>Xiang Guangda has also become a frequent visitor at the local government enterprise symposium.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c46ceaa170e4d055c8235a32992a6dfb\" tg-width=\"618\" tg-height=\"453\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p>In 2021, the total revenue of Tsingshan Holding Group will reach 292.892 billion, ranking 279th among the world's top 500 companies. Tianyancha shows that Xiang Guangda holds 48.45% of the equity of Tsingshan Holding Group through various channels and is the actual controller of the group.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/684284868a43986c93078ec1487797ce\" tg-width=\"507\" tg-height=\"760\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>▲ Tsingshan Holdings Equity Structure/Screenshot of Tianyancha</p><p>In recent years, the new energy industry has gradually emerged, especially after 2020, new energy has become the hottest track at the moment. The market value of A-share CATL and BYD has exceeded one trillion yuan, and the market value of Tesla even exceeds the combined market value of several established auto companies.</p><p>The new energy industry is short of nickel, and Xiang Guangda has a lot of it. Tsingshan Holdings' nickel output will be 600,000 tons in 2021, reach 850,000 tons in 2022, accounting for 30% of the global total, and will reach 1.1 million tons in 2023.</p><p>Holding nearly 30% of the world's nickel production, it can be said that Xiang Guangda is a proper \"king of nickel\" and has also pinched the life gate of the new energy automobile industry to death.</p><p>If you are not satisfied, you just \"work\" for new energy vehicles. At present, Tsingshan Group has joined hands with Xugong Group to enter the new energy vehicle industry.</p><p>It's just that there are many people who are popular, and pigs on the tuyere are also the easiest targets to be attacked. Xiang Guangda, who survived this \"robbery\" safely, still needs to be careful. He has too much \"nickel\" in his hand, which is too tempting.</p><p></body></html></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Wenzhou's richest man fought Wall Street, JPMorgan Chase lost 800 million</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nWenzhou's richest man fought Wall Street, JPMorgan Chase lost 800 million\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/63\">\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/01a8ace21e1041b4bb972ca835e331c7);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">金融八卦女频道 </p>\n<p class=\"h-time smaller\">2022-07-04 14:52</p>\n</div>\n</a>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><html><head></head><body>This time Wall Street miscalculated. In the financial field, Wall Street is still the best in the world, but their opponents are not without progress. Through years of hard work, Chinese enterprises have gained rich market experience and rich capital. When they are pressed on the ground and beaten by others, they still have the ability to fight back. After more than three months, the \"Demon Nickel Short Squeeze War\" known to all people on earth has finally come to an end:</p><p>Xiang Guangda, the richest man in Wenzhou, and his Tsingshan Group escaped unscathed, and Wall Street giant JPMorgan Chase cut its meat and lost 120 million US dollars (about 800 million yuan).</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ed3f5a82dbe41eeb1131b5fe7f4f8e37\" tg-width=\"693\" tg-height=\"442\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>▲ Xiang Guangda, the actual controller of Tsingshan Holdings/Source: Internet</p><p>According to news on June 29, Tsingshan Holding Group safely withdrew from most of its short nickel positions on the London Metal Exchange (LME). The size of positions has been reduced to about 30,000 tons, far lower than the peak of over 150,000 tons at the time of the incident, and these positions are not held through JPMorgan Chase.</p><p>This is probably the result of negotiations between the two parties. Tsingshan Group left dignity for Wall Street bosses. Otherwise, according to the situation at that time, 120 million US dollars was far from enough.</p><p>Friends who are concerned about this matter may still be \"confused\". Isn't the legendary mastermind behind the scenes the Swiss commodity giant \"Glencore\"? Why did JPMorgan Chase lose money in the end?</p><p>What exactly happened in these three months?</p><p><b>/Qingshan counterkills, Wall Street miscalculates/</b></p><p>Briefly sort out the entire process of the Lunni incident:</p><p>On March 7, 2022, Lunni futures soared from US $29,000/ton to US $55,000/ton, a new high in 15 years.</p><p>On March 8, Lunni futures rose from US $60,000/ton to US $100,000/ton in a straight line, and the entire process took no more than one hour.</p><p>At 8:15 on March 8 (UK time), Lunkin Exchange suspended all nickel contract trading and canceled trading after 0:00 on March 8, commonly known as \"unplugging the network cable\".</p><p>On March 9, Xiang Guangda admitted that he had been squeezed short by foreign capital and had obtained sufficient spot goods through various channels.</p><p>On March 15, Tsingshan Group stated that it had reached a \"silent agreement\" with a syndicate of futures bank creditors. During this period, Tsingshan's positions will not be closed, and Tsingshan Group will reduce its positions thereafter.</p><p>On March 16, nickel trading at Lunjin Exchange resumed.</p><p>On June 29, Tsingshan Group withdrew from most of its short nickel positions in Lunjin, and the incident ended.</p><p>After reading this, people who don't know the details will still have questions, why is Tsingshan Group targeted by Wall Street capital?</p><p>We can't really blame Wall Street Capital. Qingshan Group has cultivated itself as \"Tang Monk Meat\". Who doesn't want to eat it?</p><p>Tsingshan Group has three fatal loopholes in this matter:</p><p>1. The nickel produced by Tsingshan Group is different from the delivery products traded by Lunjin Exchange. The delivered products of Lunjin Exchange are electrolytic nickel with a purity of more than 99.8%, while the nickel produced by Qingshan Group is only about 70% high nickel and ferronickel with a content of about 10%. 2. There is a problem with the hedging operation of Tsingshan Group. At that time, it bought 200,000 tons of short futures orders, but the entire nickel inventory of Lunjin Exchange was only 80,000 tons. That is to say, even if it bought all the nickel of Lunjin Exchange, it could not make up half of its short futures orders. 3. Usually, when Tsingshan Group meets the delivery period, it will buy nickel with Russia to close its position. The conflict between Russia and Ukraine led to a reversal of market logic, and Russian nickel was embargoed. Tsingshan Group did not respond to this news in time. To sum up, although Tsingshan Group has a rich family, it has played all its good cards at this card table, with only \"1 to 3\" in its hand, and others can't afford to play any cards. In this situation, how could Wall Street capital, which was born bloodthirsty, let go of this seemingly \"must-win\" hunt? It's not like Wall Street hasn't done this before.</p><p>Therefore, Wall Street Capital quickly raised nickel futures prices on March 7 and March 8, quickly raising things worth 20,000 to 30,000 US dollars to 100,000 US dollars, breaking the \"highest record for any kind of asset price fluctuations.\"</p><p>The situation at that time was that Tsingshan Group would have to lose hundreds of billions if it could not ship goods, and if it had no money, it would have to sell Indonesian nickel ore. The new energy industry chain that Chinese companies have worked so hard to build might be severely hit.</p><p>This time Wall Street miscalculated. In the financial field, Wall Street is still the best in the world, but their opponents are not without progress. Through years of hard work, Chinese enterprises have gained rich market experience and rich capital. When they are pressed on the ground and beaten by others, they still have the ability to fight back.</p><p>Although we didn't know who started it at that time, on March 9th, Qingshan Group's counterattack began. Tsingshan Holdings responded that it will replace domestic metal nickel plates with its high matte nickel, which has been allocated to sufficient spot for delivery through various channels.</p><p>Judging from the gossip, several large enterprises in the industry participated in this replacement at that time, which can be described as united as one. Xiang Guangda's original words were: \"After receiving many phone calls, relevant state departments and leaders are very supportive of Qingshan.\"</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5c59e434fbd20c251852e2cf114ed5ca\" tg-width=\"509\" tg-height=\"227\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ccda0030b524a1d6ae7153f6bcfe1ae9\" tg-width=\"494\" tg-height=\"202\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>So, why didn't the final result be that Tsingshan Group took out 200,000 tons of nickel delivery products and handed them over to Wall Street takeovers, leaving them with nowhere to store the goods. In the end, they could only sell them at a low price and lose tens of billions of dollars?</p><p>Collecting 200,000 tons of nickel delivery products can certainly solve the urgent need, but what should domestic companies do if so much nickel is handed over? Do all companies stop production and wait for a few months before new nickel is produced before resuming production?</p><p>Doing so, of course, is very relieving, but the price paid is too great.</p><p>As a mature entrepreneur, Xiang Guangda negotiated with his opponents from March 9th to March 15th with the confidence that he could produce 200,000 tons of delivery products, and finally reached a \"silent agreement\".</p><p>Judging from the news on June 29, Tsingshan Group reduced its short position to turn the corner. Although Wall Street institutions lost a small amount of money, they avoided the expansion of losses, which is an acceptable result for both sides.</p><p><b>/Who is the real mastermind behind the \"Demon Nickel War\"? /</b></p><p>When the incident happened in early March, someone pressed the calculator and said that Tsingshan Group might lose 8 billion to 12 billion dollars at that time, equivalent to hundreds of billions of RMB. Short-squeezing such a large amount of funds will inevitably involve a lot of funds.</p><p>At that time, some people suspected that commodity giant Glencore was behind the scenes in order to obtain Tsingshan's 60% stake in Indonesian nickel mines. Founded in 1974, Glencore is the largest company in Switzerland, with an operating income of US $215.11 billion. Its business scope covers the supply of mineral products, energy products and agricultural products.</p><p>But it is impossible for Glencore to spend so much money by itself. There must be a team behind it. Judging from the current situation, at least now, JPMorgan Chase and Elliott, two \"wolves from Wall Street\", have been forced out.</p><p>In April, JPMorgan Chase sold it out in its first-quarter earnings report, which showed a loss of $120 million in nickel-related businesses.</p><p>Except for participating in the \"demon nickel short squeeze\" incident in March, it is difficult to have any other reason to be convincing that the veteran Wall Street investment banks lost hundreds of millions of dollars on a single futures commodity in the first quarter. Afterwards, relevant information also proved that it was the largest counterparty of Tsingshan Group's large short positions.</p><p>Three months ago, of Tsingshan's more than 150,000 tons of nickel short positions, about 50,000 tons were held through JPMorgan Chase's over-the-counter positions. At that time, Tsingshan Holding Group once owed JPMorgan Chase about US $1 billion in margin. In just three months, JPMorgan Chase fell into the quagmire of losses of $120 million.</p><p>With such a big hole in finance, the person in charge has to say something.</p><p>Jamie Dimon, CEO of JPMorgan Chase, said reluctantly: \"We had a bit of a loss this quarter, and we will try to tide over it. We will analyze what we have done wrong and what different measures can be taken afterwards.\"</p><p>This sentence is very official, but it has two meanings:</p><p>First, they are doing things for customers. JPMorgan Chase lost money, and so did their customers. As for who the customer is, whether it is Glencore or not, it is not said. Second, they have reservations about Lunjin Institute's behavior of \"unplugging the network cable\", and maybe they have to \"take measures\". It's hard to say what measures JPMorgan Chase will take, but some people have already started to take action. They don't seem to give up and are still making their final struggles.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/373adb34449d811ea165e417eea1bae6\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"634\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>▲ Source/vision china</p><p>According to the announcement issued by the Hong Kong Stock Exchange on June 6, on June 1, the well-known American investment company \"Elliott Management Company\" attacked them, arguing that the Lonkin Exchange \"cancelled the transaction after 00:00 UK time on March 8, 2022. The behavior is illegal.\"</p><p>Elliott's two hedge funds sued the Hong Kong Stock Exchange, its subsidiary LME and its clearing company LME Clear Limite to the British High Court, preparing to claim about US $456 million, or about 3 billion yuan.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9692a7e3296316fcd1fde0c491252117\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"712\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Elliott Management Company was founded in 1977, and its fund management scale will exceed US $51.5 billion by the end of 2021. It is a veritable wolf of Wall Street and is known for its tough, aggressive, and ruthless investment style.</p><p>Just how fierce is Elliot? It can make a country uneasy.</p><p>At the end of 2000, Argentina was in turmoil, with five consecutive presidents changing in half a month, and its foreign debt of up to 150 billion U.S. dollars was unable to repay. Just as other financial institutions avoided it in time, Elliott spent $617 million to bargain-hunting Argentine Treasury Bond.</p><p>In the following nine years, Argentina proposed a debt restructuring plan in order to revive the economy. The creditors headed by Elliott ruthlessly refused twice and took Argentina to the American court. I can't imagine how ruthless this move is. It can be compared to the current creditors who disagree with Evergrande's restructuring. What will happen to Evergrande?</p><p>On June 16, 2017, the U.S. Supreme Court finally ruled against Argentina. Argentina tearfully took out $2.28 billion to settle. This single Elliott earned 3.7 times, but every penny was the hard-earned money of the Argentine people.</p><p>As for how many Wall Street capital institutions are involved in this matter, it is still unclear. If Elliott can win the lawsuit with HKEx, it may be possible to see. Because when \"dividing the meat\", the wolves on Wall Street will be willing to go out.</p><p><b>/\"China's Nickel King\" pinches Musks' fate? /</b></p><p>According to national business daily, relevant personnel of Glencore said in response to whether they were involved in the matter, \"The above statement is total nonsense.\"</p><p>However, the report also pointed out that some insiders believe that Glencore is an indirect participant in this wave of market even if it is not directly involved. The reason why the market speculates this is that the competition for metal nickel has entered a fierce stage on a global scale.</p><p>Nickel is one of the important raw materials for manufacturing new energy ternary lithium batteries, accounting for nearly 30% of the total battery cost. If it is a high-nickel and ultra-high-nickel battery, the proportion will be even higher. However, nickel is unevenly distributed all over the world, making it difficult to mine.</p><p>\"Nickel anxiety\" is a common problem among new energy vehicle bosses. Even Tesla CEO Musk said that the shortage of nickel raw materials is the biggest obstacle to the production of electric vehicle batteries.</p><p>Data show that from March 2021 to March 2022, the nickel inventory of Lunjin Exchange continued to decline, with a drop of nearly 70%. The main reason is that nickel delivery products are bought in large quantities for the manufacture of new energy batteries. It is estimated that the nickel gap from 2023 to 2025 will be-25,600 tons,-27,900 tons, and-65,300 tons respectively.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4245aa1e37a9a023ca6069abaa0dccba\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"631\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Isn't this just God feeding Xiang Guangda with a rice bowl?</p><p>Xiang Guangda was born in an ordinary worker's family in Shacheng Town, Longwan, Wenzhou in 1958. After graduation, he worked in a state-owned enterprise for eight years and became the workshop director.</p><p>In 1988, Xiang Guangda was ready to \"stand at thirty\". He gave up the \"iron rice bowl\" that everyone envied at that time, and jointly founded \"Zhejiang Ouhai Automobile Door and Window Manufacturing Company\" with Zhang Jimin and other relatives.</p><p>Because of his emphasis on research and development, Xiang Guangda's automobile doors and windows business is very good. At the end of 1993, he jointly developed automobile rim steel with a Chinese automobile wheel factory, and invested 24 million yuan to establish \"Zhejiang Fengye Special-shaped Steel Company\". In 1995, the company was reorganized and \"Zhejiang Fengye Group Co., Ltd.\" was established, officially entering the stainless steel industry.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1739f693edc5047788bfff78b4944285\" tg-width=\"400\" tg-height=\"288\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>After 2005, the entire steel industry entered a destocking cycle. Xiang Guangda realized that if it didn't change, the enterprise would sooner or later be submerged in the torrent of stainless steel enterprises.</p><p>Xiang Guangda invested 10 billion yuan in the research and development of new technologies, took the lead in introducing the internationally advanced rotary kiln-submerged furnace (RKEF) smelting process, and led a team to develop the new technology of RKEF-AOD furnace dual method, which reduced the total energy consumption of stainless steel smelting. It was cut by 50% and saved 800 yuan per ton.</p><p>\"60%-70% of stainless steel is nickel, so who produces nickel? It is produced by foreigners, but we don't produce it ourselves.\" Xiang Guangda put the production of \"nickel\" on the agenda again.</p><p>During the financial crisis in 2008, Xiang Guangda took the opportunity to acquire the Indonesian nickel mine with the highest nickel reserves in the world. Tsingshan Holdings and Indonesia Eight Star Investment Co., Ltd. jointly established Sulawesi Mining Investment Co., Ltd., and obtained the mining right of laterite nickel mine with an area of 47,000 hectares.</p><p>The mining park was quickly established, and in February 2010, nickel produced abroad by a Chinese company for the first time was successfully shipped back to China. Tsingshan Holding Group has conquered the technology of purifying high matte nickel with laterite nickel ore. After the operation, Xiang Guangda has opened up the upstream and downstream of nickel production.</p><p>With \"nickel\" in hand, there is no need to worry about stainless steel. Tsingshan Holding Group has more than ten stainless steel subsidiaries. From 2009 to 2019, Tsingshan Holding's stainless steel output increased from one million tons to tens of millions of tons, and its sales increased from tens of billions to more than 200 billion yuan. At present, it has secured the throne of the world's largest stainless steel manufacturer.</p><p>Xiang Guangda has also become a frequent visitor at the local government enterprise symposium.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c46ceaa170e4d055c8235a32992a6dfb\" tg-width=\"618\" tg-height=\"453\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p>In 2021, the total revenue of Tsingshan Holding Group will reach 292.892 billion, ranking 279th among the world's top 500 companies. Tianyancha shows that Xiang Guangda holds 48.45% of the equity of Tsingshan Holding Group through various channels and is the actual controller of the group.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/684284868a43986c93078ec1487797ce\" tg-width=\"507\" tg-height=\"760\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>▲ Tsingshan Holdings Equity Structure/Screenshot of Tianyancha</p><p>In recent years, the new energy industry has gradually emerged, especially after 2020, new energy has become the hottest track at the moment. The market value of A-share CATL and BYD has exceeded one trillion yuan, and the market value of Tesla even exceeds the combined market value of several established auto companies.</p><p>The new energy industry is short of nickel, and Xiang Guangda has a lot of it. Tsingshan Holdings' nickel output will be 600,000 tons in 2021, reach 850,000 tons in 2022, accounting for 30% of the global total, and will reach 1.1 million tons in 2023.</p><p>Holding nearly 30% of the world's nickel production, it can be said that Xiang Guangda is a proper \"king of nickel\" and has also pinched the life gate of the new energy automobile industry to death.</p><p>If you are not satisfied, you just \"work\" for new energy vehicles. At present, Tsingshan Group has joined hands with Xugong Group to enter the new energy vehicle industry.</p><p>It's just that there are many people who are popular, and pigs on the tuyere are also the easiest targets to be attacked. Xiang Guangda, who survived this \"robbery\" safely, still needs to be careful. He has too much \"nickel\" in his hand, which is too tempting.</p><p></body></html></p>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ed3f5a82dbe41eeb1131b5fe7f4f8e37","relate_stocks":{},"source_url":"","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1128701140","content_text":"这次华尔街失算了，金融领域华尔街还是天下第一，但他们的对手也不是没有长进。中国企业通过多年的努力，已经获得了丰富的市场经验和丰厚的资本，被别人摁在地上暴打时，还是有能力反击的。时隔三个多月，全地球人都知道的“妖镍逼空大战”，终于告一段落：温州首富项光达和他的青山集团全身而退，华尔街巨头摩根大通割肉出局，亏了1.2亿美金（约8亿人民币）。▲青山控股实控人项光达/图源：网络6月29日消息，青山控股集团安全退出了伦敦金属交易所（LME）的大部分镍空头头寸。持仓规模已经缩减至3万吨左右，远低于事发时的超15万吨的峰值，且这些头寸都不是通过摩根大通持有。这很可能是双方协商的结果，青山集团给华尔街大佬留了体面，否则根据当时的情况，1.2亿美金是远远不够的。关注这个事情的朋友可能还“懵着”，传说中的幕后黑手不是瑞士大宗商品巨鳄“嘉能可”吗，怎么最后亏损的是摩根大通？这三个月到底发生了什么？/青山反杀，华尔街失算/简单梳理一下伦镍事件的整个过程：2022年3月7日伦镍期货从2.9万美元/吨，飙涨到5.5万美元/吨，创15年内新高。3月8日伦镍期货从6万美元/吨直线拉升到10万美元/吨，整个过程不超过1小时。3月8日8时15分（英国时间），伦金所暂停所有镍合约的交易，并取消3月8日0点之后的交易，俗称“拔网线”。3月9日，项光达承认被外国资本逼空，已通过多种渠道获得充足现货。3月15日，青山集团表示与期货银行债权人组成的银团达成“静默协议”。期间不会对青山的持仓进行平仓，此后青山集团会减少持仓。3月16日，伦金所镍交易恢复。6月29日，青山集团退出了伦金所的大部分镍空头头寸，事件结束。读到这里，不了解其中细节的人还会有疑问，为什么是青山集团被华尔街资本盯上了呢？还真不能怪华尔街资本，青山集团把自己养成“唐僧肉”，谁不想吃呢。青山集团在此事上有三大致命漏洞：1、青山集团生产的镍，与伦金所交易的交割品不一样。伦金所交割品是纯度高达99.8%以上的电解镍，而青山集团生产的镍只有70%左右高冰镍和含量10%左右的镍铁。2、青山集团的对冲操作有问题。当时它买了20万吨期货空单，但整个伦金所镍库存只有8万吨，也就是说把伦金所的镍都买了，也凑不齐它期货空单的一半。3、平常青山集团遇到交割期，会跟俄罗斯买镍平仓。俄乌冲突导致市场逻辑逆转，俄罗斯的镍被禁运，青山集团没有及时对这一消息有所反应。综上，青山集团虽然家底丰厚，但在这张牌桌上，它把好牌都出了，手里只有“1对3”，别人出什么牌都要不起。遇到这种情况，天生嗜血的华尔街资本，怎么可能放过这场看似“必赢”的围猎。华尔街以前也不是没干过这种事。所以，华尔街资本于3月7日、3月8日两日快速拉升镍期货价格，将两三万美金的东西快速拉升到10万美金，顺带破了“任何一种资产价格波动的最高纪录。”当时的情况就是，青山集团拿不出货就得赔钱上千亿，没钱就得卖印尼的镍矿，中国企业辛辛苦苦建立的新能源产业链，恐将遭到狠狠一棒槌。这次华尔街失算了，金融领域华尔街还是天下第一，但他们的对手也不是没有长进。中国企业通过多年的努力，已经获得了丰富的市场经验和丰厚的资本，被别人摁在地上暴打时，还是有能力反击的。虽然当时还不知道谁下手的，但3月9日，青山集团的反杀就开始了。青山控股回应称，将用旗下高冰镍置换国内金属镍板，已通过多种渠道调配到充足现货进行交割。从小道消息来看，当时业内好几家大型企业都参与到了此次的置换，可谓是众志成城。项光达的原话是：“接到很多电话，国家有关部门和领导对青山都很支持。”那么，最后的结果为什么不是青山集团拿出20万吨镍交割品，交给华尔街接盘侠，让他们拿货无处存放，最后只能低价出售，赔上百亿美金呢？凑了20万吨镍交割品固然能够解决燃眉之急，但这么多镍交出去，国内企业该怎么办？难道所有企业都停止生产，等上几个月，新镍生产出来再恢复生产？这么做，固然很解气，付出的代价也太大了。项光达作为成熟的企业家，3月9日到3月15日，他在能拿出20万吨交割品的底气下，同对手进行了谈判，最终达成了“静默协议”。从6月29日的消息来看，青山集团缩减了空头头寸让自己转危为安，华尔街机构虽然赔了点小钱，但避免了损失扩大化，算是两边都能接受的结果。/谁是“妖镍大战”真正的幕后黑手？/3月初事件发生时，有人按过计算器，说当时青山集团可能亏损80亿到120亿美金，折合人民币上千亿。逼空这么大体量资金，涉及的资金必然不会少。当时有人怀疑大宗商品巨头嘉能可是幕后黑手，目的是为了拿到青山在印尼镍矿60%的股权。嘉能可成立于1974年，是瑞士最大的企业，营业收入高达2151.1亿美元，经营范围覆盖矿产品、能源产品和农产品的供应。但嘉能可不可能自己拿出这么多钱，背后一定有团队。从目前的情况看，至少现在已经逼出来摩根大通和埃利奥特这两头“来自华尔街的狼”。4月，摩根大通第一季财报早就出卖了它，财报显示与镍相关的业务出现了1.2亿美元的亏损。能让华尔街老牌投行一季度在单一期货商品上大亏上亿美元，除了参与了3月的“妖镍逼空”事件，很难有别的理由让人信服。事后相关信息也证明，它是青山集团大量空头头寸的最大交易对手方。而三个月前，在青山逾15万吨的镍空头头寸中，约有5万吨是通过摩根大通场外头寸持有，当时青山控股集团一度欠摩根大通约10亿美元保证金。短短三个月间，摩根大通便陷入了1.2亿美元亏损的泥潭。财务上出了这么大窟窿，负责人总得说点什么吧。摩根大通首席执行官杰米·戴蒙（Jamie Dimon）不情愿地说：“我们本季度有一点亏损，我们会设法渡过难关的。我们会对自己做错了什么，以及伦金所之后可以采取哪些不同措施进行事后分析。”这句话说的很官方，但细品有两重意思：一，他们是在帮客户做事，摩根大通亏了，他们的客户也亏了。至于客户是谁，是不是嘉能可，并没说。二，他们对伦金所“拔网线”的行为是有保留意见的，说不定还得“采取措施”。摩根大通会采取什么措施不好说，但有人已经开始行动了，他们似乎并不认输，还在做最后的挣扎。▲图源/视觉中国根据港交所6月6日发布的公告，6月1日美国著名投资公司“埃利奥特管理公司”向他们发难，认为伦金所“取消2022年3月8日英国时间00：00之后交易的行为不合法。”埃利奥特旗下两只对冲基金将港交所和其子公司伦金所（LME）及其清算公司LME Clear Limite告上英国高等法院，准备索赔约4.56亿美元，约30亿人民币。埃利奥特管理公司成立于1977年，2021年底基金管理规模超515亿美元，它是名副其实的华尔街之狼，以强硬、激进、狠辣的投资风格闻名。埃利奥特到底有多凶狠？它能让一个国家不得安生。2000年底，阿根廷动荡不安，半个月连续换了5任总统，高达1500亿美元的外债无力偿还。正当其他金融机构避之不及时，埃利奥特用6.17亿美元抄底阿根廷国债。此后9年时间里，阿根廷为了重振经济提出债务重组方案，埃利奥特为首的债权人2次无情拒绝，还将阿根廷告上美国法庭。想象不到这招有多狠，可以类比现在债权人不同意恒大重组，恒大会怎样。2017年6月16日，美国最高法院最终判决阿根廷败诉。阿根廷含泪拿出了22.8亿美元和解，这一单埃利奥特赚了3.7倍，但每一分钱都是阿根廷人民的血汗钱。至于到底有多少华尔街的资本机构参与此事，目前还不明确。如果埃利奥特能从与港交所的官司中获胜，或许有可能看到。因为“分肉”的时候，华尔街的狼才会愿意倾巢出动。/“中国镍王”捏住马斯克们命门？ /据《每日经济新闻》报道，嘉能可相关人员在回复是否参与此事时表示，“上述这种说法完全是胡说八道（total nonsense）。”但报道中也同时指出有行内人员认为嘉能可即使没有直接参与，也是这一波行情的间接参与者。市场之所以这样猜测，是因为在全球范围内，对于金属镍的争夺已经进入白热化的阶段。镍是制造新能源三元锂电池的重要原材料之一，在电池总成本中占比将近30%，如果是高镍、超高镍电池这个比例还将更高。但镍元素在全世界分布不均，开采难度大。“镍焦虑”是新能源汽车大佬的普遍问题，连特斯拉CEO马斯克都说，镍原料的短缺是影响电动车电池生产的最大障碍。数据显示，2021年3月至2022年3月，伦金所的镍库存持续下降，降幅接近70%。主要原因是镍交割品被大量买去用于制造新能源电池。预计2023年-2025年镍的缺口分别为-2.56万吨、-2.79万吨、-6.53万吨。这不就是老天爷端着饭碗给项光达喂饭吗？1958年项光达出生于温州龙湾沙城镇的一个普通工人家庭。毕业后在国企干了八年，还当上了车间主任。1988年，项光达准备“三十而立”，他放弃了当时人人羡慕的“铁饭碗”，联合张积敏等亲戚合伙创办了“浙江瓯海汽车门窗制造公司”。由于注重研发，项光达的汽车门窗生意很好。1993年底，他与中国一汽车轮厂联合开发汽车轮辋钢，并投资2400万元，成立“浙江丰业异型钢公司”。并于1995年改组公司，成立“浙江丰业集团有限公司”，正式进入不锈钢行业。2005年之后，整个钢铁行业进入去库存周期。项光达意识到，如果不改变，企业迟早淹没在不锈钢企业的洪流中。项光达拿出100亿投入研发新技术，率先引进国际先进的回转窑—矿热炉（RKEF）冶炼工艺，又带队研发出RKEF—AOD炉双联法新技术，把不锈钢冶炼的总能耗砍掉了50%，每吨成本节省800元。“不锈钢60%--70%都是镍，那镍是谁来生产的？是老外生产的，我们自己没有生产。”项光达又将生产“镍”提到了议事日程。2008年金融危机时，项光达趁机收购了全球镍储量最高的印尼镍矿。青山控股与印尼八星投资有限公司合资设立苏拉威西矿业投资有限公司，获得了面积为4.70万公顷的红土镍矿开采权。矿业园区很快建立，2010年2月，第一次由中国公司在国外生产的镍顺利装船回国。青山控股集团又攻克了用红土镍矿提纯高冰镍的技术，一通操作下来，项光达已经打通了镍生产的上下游。有“镍”在手，不锈钢不愁。青山控股集团旗下有十多家不锈钢类子公司，2009年至2019年，青山控股不锈钢产量从百万吨增至千万吨，销售额从几百亿增至2000多亿元，目前已经坐稳全球最大不锈钢生产企业的宝座。项光达也成为当地政府企业座谈会上的常客。2021年青山控股集团总营收高达2928.92亿，位列世界500强第279位。天眼查显示，项光达通过各种路径，占有青山控股集团的股权比例高达48.45%，是集团的实际控制人。▲青山控股股权结构/天眼查截图这些年，新能源产业逐步兴起，尤其是2020年之后，新能源成为当下最火的赛道，没有之一。A股的宁德时代、比亚迪市值破万亿，特斯拉的市值甚至超过几家老牌汽车公司市值总和。新能源行业缺镍，项光达手里有很多。青山控股2021年镍产量为60万吨，2022年将达到85万吨占到全球总量的30%，2023年更将达到110万吨。手握全球近30%的镍产量，可以说，项光达是妥妥的“镍之王”，也把新能源汽车行业的命门捏得死死的。不满足只是给新能源汽车“打工”，目前青山集团已携手徐工集团，入局新能源汽车产业。只是人红是非多，风口上的猪也是最容易被下手的对象。安然渡过这一“劫”的项光达，还是要小心，他手上的“镍”太多，太诱人了。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":764,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9040617845,"gmtCreate":1655654750987,"gmtModify":1676535678668,"author":{"id":"3578208981838945","authorId":"3578208981838945","name":"211013能量飞车","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e583c75322dd4651672938ebba8683b7","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3578208981838945","idStr":"3578208981838945"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"👍","listText":"👍","text":"👍","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9040617845","repostId":"2244846324","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1045,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9057151859,"gmtCreate":1655481545171,"gmtModify":1676535648517,"author":{"id":"3578208981838945","authorId":"3578208981838945","name":"211013能量飞车","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e583c75322dd4651672938ebba8683b7","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3578208981838945","idStr":"3578208981838945"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"👍","listText":"👍","text":"👍","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9057151859","repostId":"1124502900","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1124502900","kind":"news","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"为用户提供金融资讯、行情、数据，旨在帮助投资者理解世界，做投资决策。","home_visible":1,"media_name":"老虎资讯综合","id":"102","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba"},"pubTimestamp":1655466772,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1124502900?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2022-06-17 19:52","market":"sh","language":"zh","title":"Pre-market | \"Four Witches Day\" is here! U.S. stocks face another test tonight","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1124502900","media":"老虎资讯综合","summary":"6月17日，美股三大股指期货震荡上扬，截至发稿，道指期货涨0.67%；纳斯达克100指数期货涨1.18%；标普500指数期货涨0.87%。在经历昨夜美股的大幅回落之后，今夜美股市场再次迎来一大考验——","content":"<p><html><head></head><body>On June 17, the three major U.S. stock index futures fluctuated and rose. As of press time, Dow futures rose 0.67%; Nasdaq 100 futures rose 1.18%; S&P 500 futures rose 0.87%.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f694311698033b0036af0169ff8b2eec\" tg-width=\"385\" tg-height=\"185\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>After experiencing a sharp decline in U.S. stocks last night, the U.S. stock market once again faced a big test tonight-\"Four Witches Day\". The \"Four Witch Days\" refers to the maturity and settlement date of derivative financial products in the US market on the third Friday of the quarter (March, June, September and December), and the price is expected to fluctuate greatly on that day.</p><p>According to industry statistics, options with a nominal size of US $3.4 trillion will expire this time, which is similar to that in December last year.<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/GS\">Goldman Sachs</a>Rocky Fishman pointed out that the selling of large bearish positions could trigger a major turning point.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/dd26fd96d9ea70ca681e5c8591634ed2\" tg-width=\"500\" tg-height=\"279\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><b>Premarket Quotes</b></p><p>Popular Chinese concept stocks continued to expand their pre-market gains,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BABA\">Alibaba</a>Up more than 10%,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/JD\">JD.com</a>Rose more than 9%,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/PDD\">Pinduoduo</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/LI\">Li Auto</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/XPEV\">XPeng vehicles</a>Rose more than 7%;</p><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/ADBE\">Adobe</a>It fell more than 4% before the market, and the company lowered its profit forecast for the third quarter;</p><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/ROKU\">Roku</a>It rose more than 5% before the market,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/WMT\">Walmart</a>Reached a TV shopping cooperation agreement with it.</p><p><b>European Market</b></p><p>Major European stock indexes rose across the board. As of press time, the German DAX30 index rose 1.29%.<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/VUKE.UK\">UK FTSE 100</a>It rose 1.14%, and France's CAC40 rose 1.27%.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/00c98c13582a5fdca1bcc5acfe7cf892\" tg-width=\"821\" tg-height=\"288\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><b>crude oil</b></p><p>Crude oil futures fell. As of press time, WTI crude oil fell 0.36% to $117.17 per barrel; Brent crude oil fell 0.17% to $119.61 a barrel.</p><p>Although rate hike in many countries has raised demand concerns this week, crude oil supplies may continue to be tight due to limited spare capacity of producers, and potential new sanctions against Iraq limit the downside.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/de5ddfbdbf33bf359f98924ea511528c\" tg-width=\"889\" tg-height=\"822\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/566c8e22c10b7f3c34ee55b3dcdb0034\" tg-width=\"889\" tg-height=\"823\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Gold</p><p>Gold futures fell, down 0.05% to $1,849 an ounce as of press time.</p><p>International gold prices fell as a stronger U.S. dollar and rising U.S. Treasury Bond yields hit demand for dollar-denominated gold, but the impact of changes in the interest rate outlook remains to be clear.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7874ea6871186ecc36929cf4ac0023bc\" tg-width=\"889\" tg-height=\"822\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p></body></html></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Pre-market | \"Four Witches Day\" is here! U.S. stocks face another test tonight</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nPre-market | \"Four Witches Day\" is here! U.S. stocks face another test tonight\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/102\">\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">老虎资讯综合 </p>\n<p class=\"h-time smaller\">2022-06-17 19:52</p>\n</div>\n</a>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><html><head></head><body>On June 17, the three major U.S. stock index futures fluctuated and rose. As of press time, Dow futures rose 0.67%; Nasdaq 100 futures rose 1.18%; S&P 500 futures rose 0.87%.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f694311698033b0036af0169ff8b2eec\" tg-width=\"385\" tg-height=\"185\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>After experiencing a sharp decline in U.S. stocks last night, the U.S. stock market once again faced a big test tonight-\"Four Witches Day\". The \"Four Witch Days\" refers to the maturity and settlement date of derivative financial products in the US market on the third Friday of the quarter (March, June, September and December), and the price is expected to fluctuate greatly on that day.</p><p>According to industry statistics, options with a nominal size of US $3.4 trillion will expire this time, which is similar to that in December last year.<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/GS\">Goldman Sachs</a>Rocky Fishman pointed out that the selling of large bearish positions could trigger a major turning point.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/dd26fd96d9ea70ca681e5c8591634ed2\" tg-width=\"500\" tg-height=\"279\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><b>Premarket Quotes</b></p><p>Popular Chinese concept stocks continued to expand their pre-market gains,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BABA\">Alibaba</a>Up more than 10%,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/JD\">JD.com</a>Rose more than 9%,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/PDD\">Pinduoduo</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/LI\">Li Auto</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/XPEV\">XPeng vehicles</a>Rose more than 7%;</p><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/ADBE\">Adobe</a>It fell more than 4% before the market, and the company lowered its profit forecast for the third quarter;</p><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/ROKU\">Roku</a>It rose more than 5% before the market,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/WMT\">Walmart</a>Reached a TV shopping cooperation agreement with it.</p><p><b>European Market</b></p><p>Major European stock indexes rose across the board. As of press time, the German DAX30 index rose 1.29%.<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/VUKE.UK\">UK FTSE 100</a>It rose 1.14%, and France's CAC40 rose 1.27%.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/00c98c13582a5fdca1bcc5acfe7cf892\" tg-width=\"821\" tg-height=\"288\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><b>crude oil</b></p><p>Crude oil futures fell. As of press time, WTI crude oil fell 0.36% to $117.17 per barrel; Brent crude oil fell 0.17% to $119.61 a barrel.</p><p>Although rate hike in many countries has raised demand concerns this week, crude oil supplies may continue to be tight due to limited spare capacity of producers, and potential new sanctions against Iraq limit the downside.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/de5ddfbdbf33bf359f98924ea511528c\" tg-width=\"889\" tg-height=\"822\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/566c8e22c10b7f3c34ee55b3dcdb0034\" tg-width=\"889\" tg-height=\"823\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Gold</p><p>Gold futures fell, down 0.05% to $1,849 an ounce as of press time.</p><p>International gold prices fell as a stronger U.S. dollar and rising U.S. Treasury Bond yields hit demand for dollar-denominated gold, but the impact of changes in the interest rate outlook remains to be clear.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7874ea6871186ecc36929cf4ac0023bc\" tg-width=\"889\" tg-height=\"822\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p></body></html></p>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ed4ee39e6b0f45214393093d70ba81a8","relate_stocks":{".SPX":"S&P 500 Index",".DJI":"道琼斯",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite"},"source_url":"","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1124502900","content_text":"6月17日，美股三大股指期货震荡上扬，截至发稿，道指期货涨0.67%；纳斯达克100指数期货涨1.18%；标普500指数期货涨0.87%。在经历昨夜美股的大幅回落之后，今夜美股市场再次迎来一大考验——“四巫日”。“四巫日”是指美国市场于季月（三月、六月、九月、十二月）第三个星期五之衍生性金融商品到期结算日，预期当天价格会有较大的波动。而据业内统计，这一次将有名义规模达到3.4万亿美元的期权到期，这一规模与去年12月时相近。高盛的Rocky Fishman指出，大量看跌头寸的卖出可能会引发一个重大转折点。盘前行情热门中概股盘前涨幅持续扩大，阿里巴巴涨超10%，京东涨超9%，拼多多、理想汽车、小鹏汽车涨超7%；Adobe盘前跌超4%，公司下调三季度盈利预期；Roku盘前涨超5%，沃尔玛与其达成电视购物合作协议。欧洲市场欧洲主要股指全线上涨，截至发稿，德国DAX30指数涨1.29%，英国富时100涨1.14%，法国CAC40涨1.27%。原油原油期货走低，截止发稿，WTI原油跌0.36%，报117.17美元/桶；布伦特原油跌0.17%，报119.61美元/桶。尽管本周多国加息引发需求担忧，但由于生产商的闲置产能有限，原油供应可能会继续紧张，加上潜在对伊新制裁限制了下行空间。黄金黄金期货走低，截止发稿，跌0.05%，报1849美元/盎司。国际金价下跌，因美元走强和美国国债收益率上升打击了对以美元计价的黄金的需求，但利率前景变化带来的影响尚待明朗。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"NQmain":0.9,"YMmain":0.9,".SPX":0.9,".IXIC":0.9,".DJI":0.9,"ESmain":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":800,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0}],"hots":[{"id":9095820206,"gmtCreate":1644883605315,"gmtModify":1676533971220,"author":{"id":"3578208981838945","authorId":"3578208981838945","name":"211013能量飞车","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e583c75322dd4651672938ebba8683b7","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3578208981838945","idStr":"3578208981838945"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"👍","listText":"👍","text":"👍","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":6,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9095820206","repostId":"1118966088","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"1118966088","kind":"news","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"为用户提供金融资讯、行情、数据，旨在帮助投资者理解世界，做投资决策。","home_visible":1,"media_name":"老虎资讯综合","id":"102","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba"},"pubTimestamp":1644881462,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1118966088?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2022-02-15 07:31","market":"hk","language":"zh","title":"Last night and this morning | 13F reports are released one after another! What did top institutions buy in Q4?","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1118966088","media":"老虎资讯综合","summary":"摘要：美股主要指数连跌三日；疫苗股、中概教育股普跌；Sea盘中一度重挫近20%，创上市以来最大跌幅；美油与布伦特原油均创7年新高；伯克希尔、桥水、高瓴等多家全球顶级机构四季度持仓出炉>>>海外市场美股","content":"<p><html><head></head><body><b>Summary:</b>Major U.S. stock indexes fell for three consecutive days; Vaccine stocks and Chinese concept education stocks generally fell; Sea once fell nearly 20% in intraday trading, the biggest drop since its listing; U.S. oil and Brent crude oil both hit seven-year highs;<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BRK.A\">Berkshire</a>, Bridgewater, Hillhouse and other top global institutions released their positions in the fourth quarter > > ><b>Overseas Market</b></p><p><b>U.S. stocks close: Three major indexes fell for three consecutive days, vaccine stocks generally fell</b></p><p>Investors are paying close attention to Russia-Ukraine tensions and bracing for possible Federal Reserve action in response to soaring inflation. St. Louis Fed President Bullard said the central bank needs to be more aggressive in fighting inflation. As of the close, the Dow Jones index fell 0.49% to 34,566.17 points; The S&P 500 fell 0.38% to 4,401.67 points; The Nasdaq closed almost flat (down 0.24) at 13,790.92.</p><p>Vaccine stocks broadly fell as data showed the Omicron outbreak was receding and U.S. health regulators said on Friday that they would delay the approval of COVID-19 vaccine for children under 5 years old. As of the close,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MRNA\">Moderna</a>Shares fell nearly 12%, making them the worst performing stock in the S&P 500,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/PFE\">Pfizer</a>Down 1.93%,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BNTX\">BioNTech</a>Down 9.61%,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NVAX\">Novavax</a>It fell 11.42%.</p><p><b>Most popular Chinese concept stocks fell, with education stocks leading the decline</b></p><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/DIDI\">Didi</a>Up 7.27%,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/JD\">JD.com</a>Up 0.64%,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BIDU\">Baidu</a>Up 0.09%, Weibo fell 1.28%,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/PDD\">Pinduoduo</a>Down 1.40%,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BILI\">Bilibili</a>Down 2.31%,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/GOTU\">High Road</a>Down 7.66%,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TAL\">TAL</a>Down 3.72%,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/EDU\">New Oriental</a>Down 3.29%,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NTES\">NetEase</a>Down 1.06%,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BABA\">Alibaba</a>Down 0.27%,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TME\">Tencent Music</a>Down 1.99%,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/IQ\">IQiyi</a>Down 3.03%.</p><p><b>Russia-Ukraine tensions push up oil prices, with U.S. oil and Brent crude oil both hitting 7-year highs</b></p><p>Crude oil futures were higher on Monday and recorded their highest close in more than seven years. Traders are paying close attention to the development of the situation between Russia and Ukraine, fearing that it may disrupt the already tense global crude oil market. The price of West Texas Intermediate crude oil (WTI) futures for March delivery on the New York Mercantile Exchange rose $2.36, or 2.5%, to close at $95.46 a barrel, the highest closing price since September 3, 2014.</p><p><b>Gold futures close 1.5% higher, highest close in 3 months</b></p><p>Gold futures closed at their highest price in nearly three months on Monday. The tension between Russia and Ukraine has boosted the demand for safe-haven investments in gold. Gold futures for April delivery on the New York Mercantile Exchange rose $27.30, or 1.5%, to close at $1,869.40 an ounce, the highest closing price since November 17.</p><p><b>European stocks closed lower across the board, with major stock indexes all falling more than 2%</b></p><p>The situation in Ukraine was tense, market risk aversion increased, and European stocks closed down across the board. Germany's DAX30 index fell 2.03%, France's CAC40 index fell 2.27%,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/VUKE.UK\">UK FTSE 100</a>The index fell 1.72%, Spain's IBEX35 index fell 2.53%, Italy's FTSE MIB index fell 2.07%, and Europe's Stoxx 50 index fell 2.14%.</p><p><b>International macro</b></p><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/NW/2211739502\" target=\"_blank\"><b>How to maintain the Fed's credibility in anti-inflation? Hawkish policymakers advocate pre-rate hike</b></a><b></b></p><p>St. Louis Federal Reserve Bank President james bullard said the central bank needs to move forward with the rate hike plan to highlight its credibility in fighting inflation. Bullard reiterated his view that in response to the worst inflation in 40 years, the Fed should rate hike 100 basis points by July 1 and begin shrinking its balance sheet in the second quarter.</p><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/NW/2211739502\" target=\"_blank\"><b>U.S. consumer short-term inflation expectations unexpectedly fall for first time in more than a year</b></a><b></b></p><p>Consumer one-year inflation expectations fell for the first time since October 2020, from 6.0% in December to 5.8% in January, according to the New York Fed's monthly survey of consumer expectations. Three-year inflation expectations fell to 3.5% in January from 4.0% in December, the biggest monthly drop since the survey was launched in 2013.</p><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/NW/2211501832\" target=\"_blank\"><b>OPEC Secretary-General: Low investment levels and geopolitical risks are pushing up oil prices</b></a><b></b></p><p>The Secretary-General of OPEC said that insufficient levels of large-scale investment and geopolitical risks are behind the current rise in oil prices. Regarding the recent escalating conflict between Russia and Ukraine, he expressed optimism about the prospect of resolving the Ukrainian crisis through diplomatic channels.</p><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/NW/2211739502\" target=\"_blank\"><b>Russia and Ukraine play an important role in global raw material supply. What will conflict mean?</b></a><b></b></p><p>The United States has already warned that Russia could attack its neighbour as early as this week, although Moscow has repeatedly denied it plans an invasion. Markets have been on edge for weeks, and if there is a conflict-or sanctions on Russia-it could push energy and food prices further higher and plunge Europe into a severe supply crisis.</p><p><b>Company News</b></p><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/NW/1186191515\" target=\"_blank\"><b>Berkshire opens a position in Q4 to go long Activision Blizzard, Apple remains the number one holding</b></a><b></b></p><p>The 13F position report submitted by Buffett's Berkshire Hathaway to the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) on Monday showed that the company opened a long position in Activision Blizzard in the fourth quarter of last year, holding 14.7 million shares, with a stock market value of 975.2 million US dollars, accounting for 1.88% of Activision Blizzard's outstanding shares.</p><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/NW/1159400919\" target=\"_blank\"><b>Hillhouse partially increased its investment in new energy in the fourth quarter, and Li Auto ranked among the top ten holdings for the first time</b></a><b></b></p><p>In the fourth quarter, Hillhouse's ideals and<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/XPEV\">XPeng vehicles</a>Positions increased four times and more than three times respectively, and Southeast Asia's \"small<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/00700\">Tencent</a>\"Sea has also entered Hillhouse's top ten holdings,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BGNE\">BeiGene</a>And<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/IMAB\">Heavenly creatures</a>Still among the top ten holdings. Hillhouse cleared Alibaba and Bilibili in the quarter, significantly reducing its holdings in Pinduoduo by more than 90%.</p><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/NW/1171843573\" target=\"_blank\"><b>Bridgewater's Q4 positions: Significantly increased its holdings of the three Chinese e-commerce giants, cleared Amazon and Netflix</b></a><b></b></p><p>Bridgewater Fund, a subsidiary of well-known investor Ray Dalio, submitted its U.S. stock positions as of the end of the fourth quarter to the U.S. SEC (Form 13F). Documents show that Bridgewater Fund's overall holdings in Q4 reached US $17.202 billion, a decrease of 5.81% from the previous quarter, and the concentration ratio of the top ten holdings was 35.59%.</p><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/NW/1128166718\" target=\"_blank\"><b>Renaissance Technology Q4 Holdings: Significantly Increase Roblox Holdings, Clearance AMD</b></a><b></b></p><p>Renaissance Technology Fund, a subsidiary of well-known investor James Simmons, recently submitted its U.S. stock positions as of the end of the fourth quarter of last year (Form 13F) to the U.S. SEC. The market value of this fund with the theme of technology growth rose slightly to US $80.38 billion at the end of the fourth quarter of last year, a slight increase from the previous quarter's scale of US $77.4 billion.</p><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/NW/2211501757\" target=\"_blank\"><b>\"Southeast Asia Little Tencent\" Sea once plunged nearly 20% during the session, the largest drop since its listing</b></a><b></b></p><p>This is Sea's second single-day drop this year. On January 4 this year, Tencent announced that it would reduce its stake in Sea from 21.3% to 18.7%, and its voting rights are expected to drop to less than 10%. On that day, Sea fell by more than 11% intraday, hitting a nine-month low. However, this Monday's sharp drop in Sea should have nothing to do with Tencent, the major shareholder. Tencent has not reduced its holdings in Sea recently. On the contrary, the App of Sea's popular mobile game, the battle royale shooting game Free Fire, has just been banned by the Indian government.</p><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/NW/1126159791\" target=\"_blank\"><b>Intel accelerates its layout in the automotive field and launches self-driving electric shuttle bus in the United States in 2024</b></a><b></b></p><p>Intel's autonomous driving unit<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MBLY\">Mobileye</a>It announced that it will carry out strategic cooperation with German Benteler electric vehicle systems company and autonomous driving solution provider Beep, and plans to launch autonomous driving electric shuttle buses in the United States in 2024.</p><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/NW/2211504402\" target=\"_blank\"><b>Apple was fined by Dutch antitrust agency to 20 million euros</b></a><b></b></p><p>Apple's fine against the Dutch antitrust case has now risen to 20 million euros, because Apple App Store still fails to liberalize the third-party payment system for Dutch dating software as required. The Dutch Consumer and Market Authority (ACM) imposed a fine of 5 million euros (about 5.7 million US dollars) on Apple for the fourth time on Monday.</p><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/NW/2211506776\" target=\"_blank\"><b>AMD Announces Completion of All-Stock Transaction Acquisition of Xilinx</b></a><b></b></p><p>AMD's official website issued a statement on February 14 saying that AMD completed its all-stock acquisition of Xilinx today. Former Xilinx CEO Victor Peng will join AMD as president of the newly formed Adaptive and Embedded Computing Group (AECG). AMD expects the acquisition to have an impact on non-GAAP margins, non-GAAP earnings per share and free cash flow in the first year.</p><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/NW/2211250039\" target=\"_blank\"><b>Sources say Intel may acquire Israel's Tower Semiconductor for US $6 billion</b></a><b></b></p><p>According to people familiar with the matter, U.S. chip giant Intel is close to reaching a deal to acquire Israeli chip maker Tower Semiconductor for about $6 billion (<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TWR.AU\">Tower</a>Semiconductor).</p><p></body></html></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Last night and this morning | 13F reports are released one after another! What did top institutions buy in Q4?</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nLast night and this morning | 13F reports are released one after another! What did top institutions buy in Q4?\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/102\">\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">老虎资讯综合 </p>\n<p class=\"h-time smaller\">2022-02-15 07:31</p>\n</div>\n</a>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><html><head></head><body><b>Summary:</b>Major U.S. stock indexes fell for three consecutive days; Vaccine stocks and Chinese concept education stocks generally fell; Sea once fell nearly 20% in intraday trading, the biggest drop since its listing; U.S. oil and Brent crude oil both hit seven-year highs;<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BRK.A\">Berkshire</a>, Bridgewater, Hillhouse and other top global institutions released their positions in the fourth quarter > > ><b>Overseas Market</b></p><p><b>U.S. stocks close: Three major indexes fell for three consecutive days, vaccine stocks generally fell</b></p><p>Investors are paying close attention to Russia-Ukraine tensions and bracing for possible Federal Reserve action in response to soaring inflation. St. Louis Fed President Bullard said the central bank needs to be more aggressive in fighting inflation. As of the close, the Dow Jones index fell 0.49% to 34,566.17 points; The S&P 500 fell 0.38% to 4,401.67 points; The Nasdaq closed almost flat (down 0.24) at 13,790.92.</p><p>Vaccine stocks broadly fell as data showed the Omicron outbreak was receding and U.S. health regulators said on Friday that they would delay the approval of COVID-19 vaccine for children under 5 years old. As of the close,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MRNA\">Moderna</a>Shares fell nearly 12%, making them the worst performing stock in the S&P 500,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/PFE\">Pfizer</a>Down 1.93%,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BNTX\">BioNTech</a>Down 9.61%,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NVAX\">Novavax</a>It fell 11.42%.</p><p><b>Most popular Chinese concept stocks fell, with education stocks leading the decline</b></p><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/DIDI\">Didi</a>Up 7.27%,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/JD\">JD.com</a>Up 0.64%,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BIDU\">Baidu</a>Up 0.09%, Weibo fell 1.28%,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/PDD\">Pinduoduo</a>Down 1.40%,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BILI\">Bilibili</a>Down 2.31%,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/GOTU\">High Road</a>Down 7.66%,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TAL\">TAL</a>Down 3.72%,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/EDU\">New Oriental</a>Down 3.29%,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NTES\">NetEase</a>Down 1.06%,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BABA\">Alibaba</a>Down 0.27%,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TME\">Tencent Music</a>Down 1.99%,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/IQ\">IQiyi</a>Down 3.03%.</p><p><b>Russia-Ukraine tensions push up oil prices, with U.S. oil and Brent crude oil both hitting 7-year highs</b></p><p>Crude oil futures were higher on Monday and recorded their highest close in more than seven years. Traders are paying close attention to the development of the situation between Russia and Ukraine, fearing that it may disrupt the already tense global crude oil market. The price of West Texas Intermediate crude oil (WTI) futures for March delivery on the New York Mercantile Exchange rose $2.36, or 2.5%, to close at $95.46 a barrel, the highest closing price since September 3, 2014.</p><p><b>Gold futures close 1.5% higher, highest close in 3 months</b></p><p>Gold futures closed at their highest price in nearly three months on Monday. The tension between Russia and Ukraine has boosted the demand for safe-haven investments in gold. Gold futures for April delivery on the New York Mercantile Exchange rose $27.30, or 1.5%, to close at $1,869.40 an ounce, the highest closing price since November 17.</p><p><b>European stocks closed lower across the board, with major stock indexes all falling more than 2%</b></p><p>The situation in Ukraine was tense, market risk aversion increased, and European stocks closed down across the board. Germany's DAX30 index fell 2.03%, France's CAC40 index fell 2.27%,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/VUKE.UK\">UK FTSE 100</a>The index fell 1.72%, Spain's IBEX35 index fell 2.53%, Italy's FTSE MIB index fell 2.07%, and Europe's Stoxx 50 index fell 2.14%.</p><p><b>International macro</b></p><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/NW/2211739502\" target=\"_blank\"><b>How to maintain the Fed's credibility in anti-inflation? Hawkish policymakers advocate pre-rate hike</b></a><b></b></p><p>St. Louis Federal Reserve Bank President james bullard said the central bank needs to move forward with the rate hike plan to highlight its credibility in fighting inflation. Bullard reiterated his view that in response to the worst inflation in 40 years, the Fed should rate hike 100 basis points by July 1 and begin shrinking its balance sheet in the second quarter.</p><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/NW/2211739502\" target=\"_blank\"><b>U.S. consumer short-term inflation expectations unexpectedly fall for first time in more than a year</b></a><b></b></p><p>Consumer one-year inflation expectations fell for the first time since October 2020, from 6.0% in December to 5.8% in January, according to the New York Fed's monthly survey of consumer expectations. Three-year inflation expectations fell to 3.5% in January from 4.0% in December, the biggest monthly drop since the survey was launched in 2013.</p><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/NW/2211501832\" target=\"_blank\"><b>OPEC Secretary-General: Low investment levels and geopolitical risks are pushing up oil prices</b></a><b></b></p><p>The Secretary-General of OPEC said that insufficient levels of large-scale investment and geopolitical risks are behind the current rise in oil prices. Regarding the recent escalating conflict between Russia and Ukraine, he expressed optimism about the prospect of resolving the Ukrainian crisis through diplomatic channels.</p><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/NW/2211739502\" target=\"_blank\"><b>Russia and Ukraine play an important role in global raw material supply. What will conflict mean?</b></a><b></b></p><p>The United States has already warned that Russia could attack its neighbour as early as this week, although Moscow has repeatedly denied it plans an invasion. Markets have been on edge for weeks, and if there is a conflict-or sanctions on Russia-it could push energy and food prices further higher and plunge Europe into a severe supply crisis.</p><p><b>Company News</b></p><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/NW/1186191515\" target=\"_blank\"><b>Berkshire opens a position in Q4 to go long Activision Blizzard, Apple remains the number one holding</b></a><b></b></p><p>The 13F position report submitted by Buffett's Berkshire Hathaway to the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) on Monday showed that the company opened a long position in Activision Blizzard in the fourth quarter of last year, holding 14.7 million shares, with a stock market value of 975.2 million US dollars, accounting for 1.88% of Activision Blizzard's outstanding shares.</p><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/NW/1159400919\" target=\"_blank\"><b>Hillhouse partially increased its investment in new energy in the fourth quarter, and Li Auto ranked among the top ten holdings for the first time</b></a><b></b></p><p>In the fourth quarter, Hillhouse's ideals and<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/XPEV\">XPeng vehicles</a>Positions increased four times and more than three times respectively, and Southeast Asia's \"small<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/00700\">Tencent</a>\"Sea has also entered Hillhouse's top ten holdings,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BGNE\">BeiGene</a>And<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/IMAB\">Heavenly creatures</a>Still among the top ten holdings. Hillhouse cleared Alibaba and Bilibili in the quarter, significantly reducing its holdings in Pinduoduo by more than 90%.</p><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/NW/1171843573\" target=\"_blank\"><b>Bridgewater's Q4 positions: Significantly increased its holdings of the three Chinese e-commerce giants, cleared Amazon and Netflix</b></a><b></b></p><p>Bridgewater Fund, a subsidiary of well-known investor Ray Dalio, submitted its U.S. stock positions as of the end of the fourth quarter to the U.S. SEC (Form 13F). Documents show that Bridgewater Fund's overall holdings in Q4 reached US $17.202 billion, a decrease of 5.81% from the previous quarter, and the concentration ratio of the top ten holdings was 35.59%.</p><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/NW/1128166718\" target=\"_blank\"><b>Renaissance Technology Q4 Holdings: Significantly Increase Roblox Holdings, Clearance AMD</b></a><b></b></p><p>Renaissance Technology Fund, a subsidiary of well-known investor James Simmons, recently submitted its U.S. stock positions as of the end of the fourth quarter of last year (Form 13F) to the U.S. SEC. The market value of this fund with the theme of technology growth rose slightly to US $80.38 billion at the end of the fourth quarter of last year, a slight increase from the previous quarter's scale of US $77.4 billion.</p><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/NW/2211501757\" target=\"_blank\"><b>\"Southeast Asia Little Tencent\" Sea once plunged nearly 20% during the session, the largest drop since its listing</b></a><b></b></p><p>This is Sea's second single-day drop this year. On January 4 this year, Tencent announced that it would reduce its stake in Sea from 21.3% to 18.7%, and its voting rights are expected to drop to less than 10%. On that day, Sea fell by more than 11% intraday, hitting a nine-month low. However, this Monday's sharp drop in Sea should have nothing to do with Tencent, the major shareholder. Tencent has not reduced its holdings in Sea recently. On the contrary, the App of Sea's popular mobile game, the battle royale shooting game Free Fire, has just been banned by the Indian government.</p><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/NW/1126159791\" target=\"_blank\"><b>Intel accelerates its layout in the automotive field and launches self-driving electric shuttle bus in the United States in 2024</b></a><b></b></p><p>Intel's autonomous driving unit<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MBLY\">Mobileye</a>It announced that it will carry out strategic cooperation with German Benteler electric vehicle systems company and autonomous driving solution provider Beep, and plans to launch autonomous driving electric shuttle buses in the United States in 2024.</p><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/NW/2211504402\" target=\"_blank\"><b>Apple was fined by Dutch antitrust agency to 20 million euros</b></a><b></b></p><p>Apple's fine against the Dutch antitrust case has now risen to 20 million euros, because Apple App Store still fails to liberalize the third-party payment system for Dutch dating software as required. The Dutch Consumer and Market Authority (ACM) imposed a fine of 5 million euros (about 5.7 million US dollars) on Apple for the fourth time on Monday.</p><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/NW/2211506776\" target=\"_blank\"><b>AMD Announces Completion of All-Stock Transaction Acquisition of Xilinx</b></a><b></b></p><p>AMD's official website issued a statement on February 14 saying that AMD completed its all-stock acquisition of Xilinx today. Former Xilinx CEO Victor Peng will join AMD as president of the newly formed Adaptive and Embedded Computing Group (AECG). AMD expects the acquisition to have an impact on non-GAAP margins, non-GAAP earnings per share and free cash flow in the first year.</p><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/NW/2211250039\" target=\"_blank\"><b>Sources say Intel may acquire Israel's Tower Semiconductor for US $6 billion</b></a><b></b></p><p>According to people familiar with the matter, U.S. chip giant Intel is close to reaching a deal to acquire Israeli chip maker Tower Semiconductor for about $6 billion (<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TWR.AU\">Tower</a>Semiconductor).</p><p></body></html></p>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b23574aac95526c9e5c62ebc8dd25130","relate_stocks":{".DJI":"道琼斯","BNTX":"BioNTech SE",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite","NVAX":"诺瓦瓦克斯医药","MRNA":"Moderna, Inc.",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index"},"source_url":"","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1118966088","content_text":"摘要：美股主要指数连跌三日；疫苗股、中概教育股普跌；Sea盘中一度重挫近20%，创上市以来最大跌幅；美油与布伦特原油均创7年新高；伯克希尔、桥水、高瓴等多家全球顶级机构四季度持仓出炉>>>海外市场美股收盘：三大指数连跌三日，疫苗股普跌投资者密切关注俄乌紧张局势，并准备应对美联储为应对通胀飙升可能采取的行动。圣路易斯联储主席布拉德称央行需要更积极地对抗通胀。截至收盘，道琼斯指数跌0.49%，报34,566.17点；标普500指数跌0.38%，报4,401.67 点；纳斯达克指数几乎平收（跌0.24点），报13,790.92点。疫苗股普跌，数据显示Omicron疫情正在消退，且上周五美国卫生监管机构表示将推迟为5岁以下儿童批准新冠疫苗。截止收盘，Moderna股价下跌近12%，成为标普500指数中表现最差的股票，辉瑞下跌1.93%，BioNTech下跌9.61%，诺瓦瓦克斯下跌11.42%。热门中概股多数下跌，教育股跌幅居前滴滴涨7.27%，京东涨0.64%，百度涨0.09%，微博跌1.28%，拼多多跌1.40%，哔哩哔哩跌2.31%，高途跌7.66%，好未来跌3.72%，新东方跌3.29%，网易跌1.06%，阿里巴巴跌0.27%，腾讯音乐跌1.99%，爱奇艺跌3.03%。俄乌紧张局势推高油价，美油与布伦特原油均创7年新高原油期货周一走高，并创下7年多以来的最高收盘价。交易员密切关注俄乌局势的发展，担心它可能会扰乱已经紧张的全球原油市场。纽约商品交易所3月交割的西德州中质原油（WTI）期货价格上涨2.36美元，涨幅2.5%，收于每桶95.46美元，创2014年9月3日以来的最高收盘价。黄金期货收高1.5%，创3个月来最高收盘价黄金期货周一创近3个月来的最高收盘价。俄乌关系紧张化提振了对黄金的避险投资需求。纽约商品交易所4月交割的黄金期货价格上涨27.30美元，涨幅1.5%，收于每盎司1869.40美元，创11月17日以来的最高收盘价。欧股全线收跌，主要股指均跌逾2%乌克兰局势紧张，市场避险情绪升温，欧股全线收跌。德国DAX30指数跌2.03%，法国CAC40指数跌2.27%，英国富时100指数跌1.72%，西班牙IBEX35指数跌2.53%，意大利富时MIB指数跌2.07%，欧洲斯托克50指数跌2.14%。国际宏观如何保住美联储抗通胀公信力？鹰派决策者主张前置加息圣路易斯联邦储备银行行长詹姆斯·布拉德称，央行需要推进加息计划来凸显其对抗通胀的公信力。布拉德重申了他的观点，即为应对40年来最严重的通胀美联储应该在7月1日之前加息100个基点，并在第二季开始缩减资产负债表。美国消费者短期通胀预期意外下降，为逾一年来首次据纽约联储对消费者预期的月度调查，消费者一年期通胀预期自2020年10月以来首次下降，从12月的6.0%降至1月的5.8%。三年期通胀预期从12月的4.0%降至1月的3.5%，是自2013年开展调查以来的最大月度降幅。OPEC秘书长：投资水平偏低和地缘政治风险正在推高油价OPEC秘书长表示大规模投资水平不足和地缘政治风险是当前油价走高的幕后推手，对于近期不断升级的俄乌冲突，他表示对通过外交途径化解乌克兰危机的前景感到乐观。俄罗斯、乌克兰在全球原材料供应中举足轻重，爆发冲突将意味着什么美国已经警告称，俄罗斯可能会最早在本周攻击其邻国，尽管莫斯科一再否认其计划入侵。市场几周来一直处于紧张状态，如果真的发生冲突--或是对俄罗斯制裁--可能会推动能源和食品价格进一步走高，并令欧洲陷入严重的供应危机。公司新闻伯克希尔Q4建仓做多动视暴雪，苹果仍为头号重仓股巴菲特旗下伯克希尔哈撒韦公司周一向美国证监会（SEC）提交的13F持仓报告显示，该公司去年四季度四季度建仓做多动视暴雪，持股1470万，持股市值9.752亿美元，在动视暴雪流通股中占比1.88%。高瓴四季度部分加码新能源，理想汽车首次跻身十大持仓四季度，高瓴的理想和小鹏汽车持仓分别增长四倍和三倍多，东南亚 \" 小腾讯\" Sea也进入高瓴的十大重仓股之列，百济神州和天境生物仍属前十重仓股。高瓴当季清仓阿里和B站，大幅减持拼多多逾90%。桥水Q4持仓：大幅增持中概电商三巨头，清仓亚马逊和奈飞知名投资人瑞·达利欧旗下桥水基金向美国SEC提交了截至四季度末的美股持仓情况（13F表）。文件显示，桥水基金Q4整体持仓规模达到172.02亿美元，较上季度减少5.81%，十大重仓股集中度为35.59%。文艺复兴科技Q4持仓：大幅增持Roblox，清仓AMD知名投资人詹姆斯·西蒙斯旗下文艺复兴科技基金近期向美国SEC提交了截至去年四季度末的美股持仓情况（13F表）。这家以科技成长作为主题的基金，去年四季度末持仓市值小幅走高至803.8亿美元，较前一季度的规模774亿美元小幅提升。“东南亚小腾讯”Sea盘中一度重挫近20%，创上市以来最大跌幅这是Sea今年再度单日大跌，今年1月4日，腾讯宣布要将所持的Sea股权从21.3%减少至18.7%，投票权预计降至不足10%，当天Sea盘中跌超11%，创九个月新低。不过，本周一的Sea大跌应该和腾讯这个大股东无关，腾讯最近没有再减持Sea的动作。倒是Sea旗下高人气的手机游戏——大逃杀射击游戏Free Fire的App刚刚传出被印度政府封禁的消息。英特尔加快汽车领域布局，2024年在美推出自动驾驶电动班车英特尔旗下自动驾驶部门Mobileye宣布，将与德国Benteler电动车系统公司、自动驾驶方案提供商Beep开展战略合作，计划2024年在美国推出自动驾驶电动班车。苹果遭荷兰反垄断机构罚款累计升至2000万欧元苹果对荷兰反垄断案罚款目前已累计升至2000万欧元，因苹果应用商店依旧未按照要求对荷兰的约会软件放开第三方支付系统，荷兰消费者和市场管理局（ACM）周一对苹果公司第四次处以500万欧元（约570万美元）的罚款。AMD宣布完成对赛灵思的全股票交易收购AMD官网2月14日发布声明称，AMD今天完成对赛灵思的全股票交易收购。赛灵思前首席执行官Victor 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14:52","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"Wenzhou's richest man fought Wall Street, JPMorgan Chase lost 800 million","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1128701140","media":"金融八卦女频道","summary":"这次华尔街失算了，金融领域华尔街还是天下第一，但他们的对手也不是没有长进。中国企业通过多年的努力，已经获得了丰富的市场经验和丰厚的资本，被别人摁在地上暴打时，还是有能力反击的。时隔三个多月，全地球人都","content":"<p><html><head></head><body>This time Wall Street miscalculated. In the financial field, Wall Street is still the best in the world, but their opponents are not without progress. Through years of hard work, Chinese enterprises have gained rich market experience and rich capital. When they are pressed on the ground and beaten by others, they still have the ability to fight back. After more than three months, the \"Demon Nickel Short Squeeze War\" known to all people on earth has finally come to an end:</p><p>Xiang Guangda, the richest man in Wenzhou, and his Tsingshan Group escaped unscathed, and Wall Street giant JPMorgan Chase cut its meat and lost 120 million US dollars (about 800 million yuan).</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ed3f5a82dbe41eeb1131b5fe7f4f8e37\" tg-width=\"693\" tg-height=\"442\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>▲ Xiang Guangda, the actual controller of Tsingshan Holdings/Source: Internet</p><p>According to news on June 29, Tsingshan Holding Group safely withdrew from most of its short nickel positions on the London Metal Exchange (LME). The size of positions has been reduced to about 30,000 tons, far lower than the peak of over 150,000 tons at the time of the incident, and these positions are not held through JPMorgan Chase.</p><p>This is probably the result of negotiations between the two parties. Tsingshan Group left dignity for Wall Street bosses. Otherwise, according to the situation at that time, 120 million US dollars was far from enough.</p><p>Friends who are concerned about this matter may still be \"confused\". Isn't the legendary mastermind behind the scenes the Swiss commodity giant \"Glencore\"? Why did JPMorgan Chase lose money in the end?</p><p>What exactly happened in these three months?</p><p><b>/Qingshan counterkills, Wall Street miscalculates/</b></p><p>Briefly sort out the entire process of the Lunni incident:</p><p>On March 7, 2022, Lunni futures soared from US $29,000/ton to US $55,000/ton, a new high in 15 years.</p><p>On March 8, Lunni futures rose from US $60,000/ton to US $100,000/ton in a straight line, and the entire process took no more than one hour.</p><p>At 8:15 on March 8 (UK time), Lunkin Exchange suspended all nickel contract trading and canceled trading after 0:00 on March 8, commonly known as \"unplugging the network cable\".</p><p>On March 9, Xiang Guangda admitted that he had been squeezed short by foreign capital and had obtained sufficient spot goods through various channels.</p><p>On March 15, Tsingshan Group stated that it had reached a \"silent agreement\" with a syndicate of futures bank creditors. During this period, Tsingshan's positions will not be closed, and Tsingshan Group will reduce its positions thereafter.</p><p>On March 16, nickel trading at Lunjin Exchange resumed.</p><p>On June 29, Tsingshan Group withdrew from most of its short nickel positions in Lunjin, and the incident ended.</p><p>After reading this, people who don't know the details will still have questions, why is Tsingshan Group targeted by Wall Street capital?</p><p>We can't really blame Wall Street Capital. Qingshan Group has cultivated itself as \"Tang Monk Meat\". Who doesn't want to eat it?</p><p>Tsingshan Group has three fatal loopholes in this matter:</p><p>1. The nickel produced by Tsingshan Group is different from the delivery products traded by Lunjin Exchange. The delivered products of Lunjin Exchange are electrolytic nickel with a purity of more than 99.8%, while the nickel produced by Qingshan Group is only about 70% high nickel and ferronickel with a content of about 10%. 2. There is a problem with the hedging operation of Tsingshan Group. At that time, it bought 200,000 tons of short futures orders, but the entire nickel inventory of Lunjin Exchange was only 80,000 tons. That is to say, even if it bought all the nickel of Lunjin Exchange, it could not make up half of its short futures orders. 3. Usually, when Tsingshan Group meets the delivery period, it will buy nickel with Russia to close its position. The conflict between Russia and Ukraine led to a reversal of market logic, and Russian nickel was embargoed. Tsingshan Group did not respond to this news in time. To sum up, although Tsingshan Group has a rich family, it has played all its good cards at this card table, with only \"1 to 3\" in its hand, and others can't afford to play any cards. In this situation, how could Wall Street capital, which was born bloodthirsty, let go of this seemingly \"must-win\" hunt? It's not like Wall Street hasn't done this before.</p><p>Therefore, Wall Street Capital quickly raised nickel futures prices on March 7 and March 8, quickly raising things worth 20,000 to 30,000 US dollars to 100,000 US dollars, breaking the \"highest record for any kind of asset price fluctuations.\"</p><p>The situation at that time was that Tsingshan Group would have to lose hundreds of billions if it could not ship goods, and if it had no money, it would have to sell Indonesian nickel ore. The new energy industry chain that Chinese companies have worked so hard to build might be severely hit.</p><p>This time Wall Street miscalculated. In the financial field, Wall Street is still the best in the world, but their opponents are not without progress. Through years of hard work, Chinese enterprises have gained rich market experience and rich capital. When they are pressed on the ground and beaten by others, they still have the ability to fight back.</p><p>Although we didn't know who started it at that time, on March 9th, Qingshan Group's counterattack began. Tsingshan Holdings responded that it will replace domestic metal nickel plates with its high matte nickel, which has been allocated to sufficient spot for delivery through various channels.</p><p>Judging from the gossip, several large enterprises in the industry participated in this replacement at that time, which can be described as united as one. Xiang Guangda's original words were: \"After receiving many phone calls, relevant state departments and leaders are very supportive of Qingshan.\"</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5c59e434fbd20c251852e2cf114ed5ca\" tg-width=\"509\" tg-height=\"227\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ccda0030b524a1d6ae7153f6bcfe1ae9\" tg-width=\"494\" tg-height=\"202\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>So, why didn't the final result be that Tsingshan Group took out 200,000 tons of nickel delivery products and handed them over to Wall Street takeovers, leaving them with nowhere to store the goods. In the end, they could only sell them at a low price and lose tens of billions of dollars?</p><p>Collecting 200,000 tons of nickel delivery products can certainly solve the urgent need, but what should domestic companies do if so much nickel is handed over? Do all companies stop production and wait for a few months before new nickel is produced before resuming production?</p><p>Doing so, of course, is very relieving, but the price paid is too great.</p><p>As a mature entrepreneur, Xiang Guangda negotiated with his opponents from March 9th to March 15th with the confidence that he could produce 200,000 tons of delivery products, and finally reached a \"silent agreement\".</p><p>Judging from the news on June 29, Tsingshan Group reduced its short position to turn the corner. Although Wall Street institutions lost a small amount of money, they avoided the expansion of losses, which is an acceptable result for both sides.</p><p><b>/Who is the real mastermind behind the \"Demon Nickel War\"? /</b></p><p>When the incident happened in early March, someone pressed the calculator and said that Tsingshan Group might lose 8 billion to 12 billion dollars at that time, equivalent to hundreds of billions of RMB. Short-squeezing such a large amount of funds will inevitably involve a lot of funds.</p><p>At that time, some people suspected that commodity giant Glencore was behind the scenes in order to obtain Tsingshan's 60% stake in Indonesian nickel mines. Founded in 1974, Glencore is the largest company in Switzerland, with an operating income of US $215.11 billion. Its business scope covers the supply of mineral products, energy products and agricultural products.</p><p>But it is impossible for Glencore to spend so much money by itself. There must be a team behind it. Judging from the current situation, at least now, JPMorgan Chase and Elliott, two \"wolves from Wall Street\", have been forced out.</p><p>In April, JPMorgan Chase sold it out in its first-quarter earnings report, which showed a loss of $120 million in nickel-related businesses.</p><p>Except for participating in the \"demon nickel short squeeze\" incident in March, it is difficult to have any other reason to be convincing that the veteran Wall Street investment banks lost hundreds of millions of dollars on a single futures commodity in the first quarter. Afterwards, relevant information also proved that it was the largest counterparty of Tsingshan Group's large short positions.</p><p>Three months ago, of Tsingshan's more than 150,000 tons of nickel short positions, about 50,000 tons were held through JPMorgan Chase's over-the-counter positions. At that time, Tsingshan Holding Group once owed JPMorgan Chase about US $1 billion in margin. In just three months, JPMorgan Chase fell into the quagmire of losses of $120 million.</p><p>With such a big hole in finance, the person in charge has to say something.</p><p>Jamie Dimon, CEO of JPMorgan Chase, said reluctantly: \"We had a bit of a loss this quarter, and we will try to tide over it. We will analyze what we have done wrong and what different measures can be taken afterwards.\"</p><p>This sentence is very official, but it has two meanings:</p><p>First, they are doing things for customers. JPMorgan Chase lost money, and so did their customers. As for who the customer is, whether it is Glencore or not, it is not said. Second, they have reservations about Lunjin Institute's behavior of \"unplugging the network cable\", and maybe they have to \"take measures\". It's hard to say what measures JPMorgan Chase will take, but some people have already started to take action. They don't seem to give up and are still making their final struggles.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/373adb34449d811ea165e417eea1bae6\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"634\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>▲ Source/vision china</p><p>According to the announcement issued by the Hong Kong Stock Exchange on June 6, on June 1, the well-known American investment company \"Elliott Management Company\" attacked them, arguing that the Lonkin Exchange \"cancelled the transaction after 00:00 UK time on March 8, 2022. The behavior is illegal.\"</p><p>Elliott's two hedge funds sued the Hong Kong Stock Exchange, its subsidiary LME and its clearing company LME Clear Limite to the British High Court, preparing to claim about US $456 million, or about 3 billion yuan.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9692a7e3296316fcd1fde0c491252117\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"712\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Elliott Management Company was founded in 1977, and its fund management scale will exceed US $51.5 billion by the end of 2021. It is a veritable wolf of Wall Street and is known for its tough, aggressive, and ruthless investment style.</p><p>Just how fierce is Elliot? It can make a country uneasy.</p><p>At the end of 2000, Argentina was in turmoil, with five consecutive presidents changing in half a month, and its foreign debt of up to 150 billion U.S. dollars was unable to repay. Just as other financial institutions avoided it in time, Elliott spent $617 million to bargain-hunting Argentine Treasury Bond.</p><p>In the following nine years, Argentina proposed a debt restructuring plan in order to revive the economy. The creditors headed by Elliott ruthlessly refused twice and took Argentina to the American court. I can't imagine how ruthless this move is. It can be compared to the current creditors who disagree with Evergrande's restructuring. What will happen to Evergrande?</p><p>On June 16, 2017, the U.S. Supreme Court finally ruled against Argentina. Argentina tearfully took out $2.28 billion to settle. This single Elliott earned 3.7 times, but every penny was the hard-earned money of the Argentine people.</p><p>As for how many Wall Street capital institutions are involved in this matter, it is still unclear. If Elliott can win the lawsuit with HKEx, it may be possible to see. Because when \"dividing the meat\", the wolves on Wall Street will be willing to go out.</p><p><b>/\"China's Nickel King\" pinches Musks' fate? /</b></p><p>According to national business daily, relevant personnel of Glencore said in response to whether they were involved in the matter, \"The above statement is total nonsense.\"</p><p>However, the report also pointed out that some insiders believe that Glencore is an indirect participant in this wave of market even if it is not directly involved. The reason why the market speculates this is that the competition for metal nickel has entered a fierce stage on a global scale.</p><p>Nickel is one of the important raw materials for manufacturing new energy ternary lithium batteries, accounting for nearly 30% of the total battery cost. If it is a high-nickel and ultra-high-nickel battery, the proportion will be even higher. However, nickel is unevenly distributed all over the world, making it difficult to mine.</p><p>\"Nickel anxiety\" is a common problem among new energy vehicle bosses. Even Tesla CEO Musk said that the shortage of nickel raw materials is the biggest obstacle to the production of electric vehicle batteries.</p><p>Data show that from March 2021 to March 2022, the nickel inventory of Lunjin Exchange continued to decline, with a drop of nearly 70%. The main reason is that nickel delivery products are bought in large quantities for the manufacture of new energy batteries. It is estimated that the nickel gap from 2023 to 2025 will be-25,600 tons,-27,900 tons, and-65,300 tons respectively.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4245aa1e37a9a023ca6069abaa0dccba\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"631\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Isn't this just God feeding Xiang Guangda with a rice bowl?</p><p>Xiang Guangda was born in an ordinary worker's family in Shacheng Town, Longwan, Wenzhou in 1958. After graduation, he worked in a state-owned enterprise for eight years and became the workshop director.</p><p>In 1988, Xiang Guangda was ready to \"stand at thirty\". He gave up the \"iron rice bowl\" that everyone envied at that time, and jointly founded \"Zhejiang Ouhai Automobile Door and Window Manufacturing Company\" with Zhang Jimin and other relatives.</p><p>Because of his emphasis on research and development, Xiang Guangda's automobile doors and windows business is very good. At the end of 1993, he jointly developed automobile rim steel with a Chinese automobile wheel factory, and invested 24 million yuan to establish \"Zhejiang Fengye Special-shaped Steel Company\". In 1995, the company was reorganized and \"Zhejiang Fengye Group Co., Ltd.\" was established, officially entering the stainless steel industry.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1739f693edc5047788bfff78b4944285\" tg-width=\"400\" tg-height=\"288\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>After 2005, the entire steel industry entered a destocking cycle. Xiang Guangda realized that if it didn't change, the enterprise would sooner or later be submerged in the torrent of stainless steel enterprises.</p><p>Xiang Guangda invested 10 billion yuan in the research and development of new technologies, took the lead in introducing the internationally advanced rotary kiln-submerged furnace (RKEF) smelting process, and led a team to develop the new technology of RKEF-AOD furnace dual method, which reduced the total energy consumption of stainless steel smelting. It was cut by 50% and saved 800 yuan per ton.</p><p>\"60%-70% of stainless steel is nickel, so who produces nickel? It is produced by foreigners, but we don't produce it ourselves.\" Xiang Guangda put the production of \"nickel\" on the agenda again.</p><p>During the financial crisis in 2008, Xiang Guangda took the opportunity to acquire the Indonesian nickel mine with the highest nickel reserves in the world. Tsingshan Holdings and Indonesia Eight Star Investment Co., Ltd. jointly established Sulawesi Mining Investment Co., Ltd., and obtained the mining right of laterite nickel mine with an area of 47,000 hectares.</p><p>The mining park was quickly established, and in February 2010, nickel produced abroad by a Chinese company for the first time was successfully shipped back to China. Tsingshan Holding Group has conquered the technology of purifying high matte nickel with laterite nickel ore. After the operation, Xiang Guangda has opened up the upstream and downstream of nickel production.</p><p>With \"nickel\" in hand, there is no need to worry about stainless steel. Tsingshan Holding Group has more than ten stainless steel subsidiaries. From 2009 to 2019, Tsingshan Holding's stainless steel output increased from one million tons to tens of millions of tons, and its sales increased from tens of billions to more than 200 billion yuan. At present, it has secured the throne of the world's largest stainless steel manufacturer.</p><p>Xiang Guangda has also become a frequent visitor at the local government enterprise symposium.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c46ceaa170e4d055c8235a32992a6dfb\" tg-width=\"618\" tg-height=\"453\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p>In 2021, the total revenue of Tsingshan Holding Group will reach 292.892 billion, ranking 279th among the world's top 500 companies. Tianyancha shows that Xiang Guangda holds 48.45% of the equity of Tsingshan Holding Group through various channels and is the actual controller of the group.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/684284868a43986c93078ec1487797ce\" tg-width=\"507\" tg-height=\"760\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>▲ Tsingshan Holdings Equity Structure/Screenshot of Tianyancha</p><p>In recent years, the new energy industry has gradually emerged, especially after 2020, new energy has become the hottest track at the moment. The market value of A-share CATL and BYD has exceeded one trillion yuan, and the market value of Tesla even exceeds the combined market value of several established auto companies.</p><p>The new energy industry is short of nickel, and Xiang Guangda has a lot of it. Tsingshan Holdings' nickel output will be 600,000 tons in 2021, reach 850,000 tons in 2022, accounting for 30% of the global total, and will reach 1.1 million tons in 2023.</p><p>Holding nearly 30% of the world's nickel production, it can be said that Xiang Guangda is a proper \"king of nickel\" and has also pinched the life gate of the new energy automobile industry to death.</p><p>If you are not satisfied, you just \"work\" for new energy vehicles. At present, Tsingshan Group has joined hands with Xugong Group to enter the new energy vehicle industry.</p><p>It's just that there are many people who are popular, and pigs on the tuyere are also the easiest targets to be attacked. Xiang Guangda, who survived this \"robbery\" safely, still needs to be careful. He has too much \"nickel\" in his hand, which is too tempting.</p><p></body></html></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Wenzhou's richest man fought Wall Street, JPMorgan Chase lost 800 million</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nWenzhou's richest man fought Wall Street, JPMorgan Chase lost 800 million\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/63\">\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/01a8ace21e1041b4bb972ca835e331c7);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">金融八卦女频道 </p>\n<p class=\"h-time smaller\">2022-07-04 14:52</p>\n</div>\n</a>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><html><head></head><body>This time Wall Street miscalculated. In the financial field, Wall Street is still the best in the world, but their opponents are not without progress. Through years of hard work, Chinese enterprises have gained rich market experience and rich capital. When they are pressed on the ground and beaten by others, they still have the ability to fight back. After more than three months, the \"Demon Nickel Short Squeeze War\" known to all people on earth has finally come to an end:</p><p>Xiang Guangda, the richest man in Wenzhou, and his Tsingshan Group escaped unscathed, and Wall Street giant JPMorgan Chase cut its meat and lost 120 million US dollars (about 800 million yuan).</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ed3f5a82dbe41eeb1131b5fe7f4f8e37\" tg-width=\"693\" tg-height=\"442\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>▲ Xiang Guangda, the actual controller of Tsingshan Holdings/Source: Internet</p><p>According to news on June 29, Tsingshan Holding Group safely withdrew from most of its short nickel positions on the London Metal Exchange (LME). The size of positions has been reduced to about 30,000 tons, far lower than the peak of over 150,000 tons at the time of the incident, and these positions are not held through JPMorgan Chase.</p><p>This is probably the result of negotiations between the two parties. Tsingshan Group left dignity for Wall Street bosses. Otherwise, according to the situation at that time, 120 million US dollars was far from enough.</p><p>Friends who are concerned about this matter may still be \"confused\". Isn't the legendary mastermind behind the scenes the Swiss commodity giant \"Glencore\"? Why did JPMorgan Chase lose money in the end?</p><p>What exactly happened in these three months?</p><p><b>/Qingshan counterkills, Wall Street miscalculates/</b></p><p>Briefly sort out the entire process of the Lunni incident:</p><p>On March 7, 2022, Lunni futures soared from US $29,000/ton to US $55,000/ton, a new high in 15 years.</p><p>On March 8, Lunni futures rose from US $60,000/ton to US $100,000/ton in a straight line, and the entire process took no more than one hour.</p><p>At 8:15 on March 8 (UK time), Lunkin Exchange suspended all nickel contract trading and canceled trading after 0:00 on March 8, commonly known as \"unplugging the network cable\".</p><p>On March 9, Xiang Guangda admitted that he had been squeezed short by foreign capital and had obtained sufficient spot goods through various channels.</p><p>On March 15, Tsingshan Group stated that it had reached a \"silent agreement\" with a syndicate of futures bank creditors. During this period, Tsingshan's positions will not be closed, and Tsingshan Group will reduce its positions thereafter.</p><p>On March 16, nickel trading at Lunjin Exchange resumed.</p><p>On June 29, Tsingshan Group withdrew from most of its short nickel positions in Lunjin, and the incident ended.</p><p>After reading this, people who don't know the details will still have questions, why is Tsingshan Group targeted by Wall Street capital?</p><p>We can't really blame Wall Street Capital. Qingshan Group has cultivated itself as \"Tang Monk Meat\". Who doesn't want to eat it?</p><p>Tsingshan Group has three fatal loopholes in this matter:</p><p>1. The nickel produced by Tsingshan Group is different from the delivery products traded by Lunjin Exchange. The delivered products of Lunjin Exchange are electrolytic nickel with a purity of more than 99.8%, while the nickel produced by Qingshan Group is only about 70% high nickel and ferronickel with a content of about 10%. 2. There is a problem with the hedging operation of Tsingshan Group. At that time, it bought 200,000 tons of short futures orders, but the entire nickel inventory of Lunjin Exchange was only 80,000 tons. That is to say, even if it bought all the nickel of Lunjin Exchange, it could not make up half of its short futures orders. 3. Usually, when Tsingshan Group meets the delivery period, it will buy nickel with Russia to close its position. The conflict between Russia and Ukraine led to a reversal of market logic, and Russian nickel was embargoed. Tsingshan Group did not respond to this news in time. To sum up, although Tsingshan Group has a rich family, it has played all its good cards at this card table, with only \"1 to 3\" in its hand, and others can't afford to play any cards. In this situation, how could Wall Street capital, which was born bloodthirsty, let go of this seemingly \"must-win\" hunt? It's not like Wall Street hasn't done this before.</p><p>Therefore, Wall Street Capital quickly raised nickel futures prices on March 7 and March 8, quickly raising things worth 20,000 to 30,000 US dollars to 100,000 US dollars, breaking the \"highest record for any kind of asset price fluctuations.\"</p><p>The situation at that time was that Tsingshan Group would have to lose hundreds of billions if it could not ship goods, and if it had no money, it would have to sell Indonesian nickel ore. The new energy industry chain that Chinese companies have worked so hard to build might be severely hit.</p><p>This time Wall Street miscalculated. In the financial field, Wall Street is still the best in the world, but their opponents are not without progress. Through years of hard work, Chinese enterprises have gained rich market experience and rich capital. When they are pressed on the ground and beaten by others, they still have the ability to fight back.</p><p>Although we didn't know who started it at that time, on March 9th, Qingshan Group's counterattack began. Tsingshan Holdings responded that it will replace domestic metal nickel plates with its high matte nickel, which has been allocated to sufficient spot for delivery through various channels.</p><p>Judging from the gossip, several large enterprises in the industry participated in this replacement at that time, which can be described as united as one. Xiang Guangda's original words were: \"After receiving many phone calls, relevant state departments and leaders are very supportive of Qingshan.\"</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5c59e434fbd20c251852e2cf114ed5ca\" tg-width=\"509\" tg-height=\"227\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ccda0030b524a1d6ae7153f6bcfe1ae9\" tg-width=\"494\" tg-height=\"202\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>So, why didn't the final result be that Tsingshan Group took out 200,000 tons of nickel delivery products and handed them over to Wall Street takeovers, leaving them with nowhere to store the goods. In the end, they could only sell them at a low price and lose tens of billions of dollars?</p><p>Collecting 200,000 tons of nickel delivery products can certainly solve the urgent need, but what should domestic companies do if so much nickel is handed over? Do all companies stop production and wait for a few months before new nickel is produced before resuming production?</p><p>Doing so, of course, is very relieving, but the price paid is too great.</p><p>As a mature entrepreneur, Xiang Guangda negotiated with his opponents from March 9th to March 15th with the confidence that he could produce 200,000 tons of delivery products, and finally reached a \"silent agreement\".</p><p>Judging from the news on June 29, Tsingshan Group reduced its short position to turn the corner. Although Wall Street institutions lost a small amount of money, they avoided the expansion of losses, which is an acceptable result for both sides.</p><p><b>/Who is the real mastermind behind the \"Demon Nickel War\"? /</b></p><p>When the incident happened in early March, someone pressed the calculator and said that Tsingshan Group might lose 8 billion to 12 billion dollars at that time, equivalent to hundreds of billions of RMB. Short-squeezing such a large amount of funds will inevitably involve a lot of funds.</p><p>At that time, some people suspected that commodity giant Glencore was behind the scenes in order to obtain Tsingshan's 60% stake in Indonesian nickel mines. Founded in 1974, Glencore is the largest company in Switzerland, with an operating income of US $215.11 billion. Its business scope covers the supply of mineral products, energy products and agricultural products.</p><p>But it is impossible for Glencore to spend so much money by itself. There must be a team behind it. Judging from the current situation, at least now, JPMorgan Chase and Elliott, two \"wolves from Wall Street\", have been forced out.</p><p>In April, JPMorgan Chase sold it out in its first-quarter earnings report, which showed a loss of $120 million in nickel-related businesses.</p><p>Except for participating in the \"demon nickel short squeeze\" incident in March, it is difficult to have any other reason to be convincing that the veteran Wall Street investment banks lost hundreds of millions of dollars on a single futures commodity in the first quarter. Afterwards, relevant information also proved that it was the largest counterparty of Tsingshan Group's large short positions.</p><p>Three months ago, of Tsingshan's more than 150,000 tons of nickel short positions, about 50,000 tons were held through JPMorgan Chase's over-the-counter positions. At that time, Tsingshan Holding Group once owed JPMorgan Chase about US $1 billion in margin. In just three months, JPMorgan Chase fell into the quagmire of losses of $120 million.</p><p>With such a big hole in finance, the person in charge has to say something.</p><p>Jamie Dimon, CEO of JPMorgan Chase, said reluctantly: \"We had a bit of a loss this quarter, and we will try to tide over it. We will analyze what we have done wrong and what different measures can be taken afterwards.\"</p><p>This sentence is very official, but it has two meanings:</p><p>First, they are doing things for customers. JPMorgan Chase lost money, and so did their customers. As for who the customer is, whether it is Glencore or not, it is not said. Second, they have reservations about Lunjin Institute's behavior of \"unplugging the network cable\", and maybe they have to \"take measures\". It's hard to say what measures JPMorgan Chase will take, but some people have already started to take action. They don't seem to give up and are still making their final struggles.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/373adb34449d811ea165e417eea1bae6\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"634\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>▲ Source/vision china</p><p>According to the announcement issued by the Hong Kong Stock Exchange on June 6, on June 1, the well-known American investment company \"Elliott Management Company\" attacked them, arguing that the Lonkin Exchange \"cancelled the transaction after 00:00 UK time on March 8, 2022. The behavior is illegal.\"</p><p>Elliott's two hedge funds sued the Hong Kong Stock Exchange, its subsidiary LME and its clearing company LME Clear Limite to the British High Court, preparing to claim about US $456 million, or about 3 billion yuan.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9692a7e3296316fcd1fde0c491252117\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"712\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Elliott Management Company was founded in 1977, and its fund management scale will exceed US $51.5 billion by the end of 2021. It is a veritable wolf of Wall Street and is known for its tough, aggressive, and ruthless investment style.</p><p>Just how fierce is Elliot? It can make a country uneasy.</p><p>At the end of 2000, Argentina was in turmoil, with five consecutive presidents changing in half a month, and its foreign debt of up to 150 billion U.S. dollars was unable to repay. Just as other financial institutions avoided it in time, Elliott spent $617 million to bargain-hunting Argentine Treasury Bond.</p><p>In the following nine years, Argentina proposed a debt restructuring plan in order to revive the economy. The creditors headed by Elliott ruthlessly refused twice and took Argentina to the American court. I can't imagine how ruthless this move is. It can be compared to the current creditors who disagree with Evergrande's restructuring. What will happen to Evergrande?</p><p>On June 16, 2017, the U.S. Supreme Court finally ruled against Argentina. Argentina tearfully took out $2.28 billion to settle. This single Elliott earned 3.7 times, but every penny was the hard-earned money of the Argentine people.</p><p>As for how many Wall Street capital institutions are involved in this matter, it is still unclear. If Elliott can win the lawsuit with HKEx, it may be possible to see. Because when \"dividing the meat\", the wolves on Wall Street will be willing to go out.</p><p><b>/\"China's Nickel King\" pinches Musks' fate? /</b></p><p>According to national business daily, relevant personnel of Glencore said in response to whether they were involved in the matter, \"The above statement is total nonsense.\"</p><p>However, the report also pointed out that some insiders believe that Glencore is an indirect participant in this wave of market even if it is not directly involved. The reason why the market speculates this is that the competition for metal nickel has entered a fierce stage on a global scale.</p><p>Nickel is one of the important raw materials for manufacturing new energy ternary lithium batteries, accounting for nearly 30% of the total battery cost. If it is a high-nickel and ultra-high-nickel battery, the proportion will be even higher. However, nickel is unevenly distributed all over the world, making it difficult to mine.</p><p>\"Nickel anxiety\" is a common problem among new energy vehicle bosses. Even Tesla CEO Musk said that the shortage of nickel raw materials is the biggest obstacle to the production of electric vehicle batteries.</p><p>Data show that from March 2021 to March 2022, the nickel inventory of Lunjin Exchange continued to decline, with a drop of nearly 70%. The main reason is that nickel delivery products are bought in large quantities for the manufacture of new energy batteries. It is estimated that the nickel gap from 2023 to 2025 will be-25,600 tons,-27,900 tons, and-65,300 tons respectively.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4245aa1e37a9a023ca6069abaa0dccba\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"631\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Isn't this just God feeding Xiang Guangda with a rice bowl?</p><p>Xiang Guangda was born in an ordinary worker's family in Shacheng Town, Longwan, Wenzhou in 1958. After graduation, he worked in a state-owned enterprise for eight years and became the workshop director.</p><p>In 1988, Xiang Guangda was ready to \"stand at thirty\". He gave up the \"iron rice bowl\" that everyone envied at that time, and jointly founded \"Zhejiang Ouhai Automobile Door and Window Manufacturing Company\" with Zhang Jimin and other relatives.</p><p>Because of his emphasis on research and development, Xiang Guangda's automobile doors and windows business is very good. At the end of 1993, he jointly developed automobile rim steel with a Chinese automobile wheel factory, and invested 24 million yuan to establish \"Zhejiang Fengye Special-shaped Steel Company\". In 1995, the company was reorganized and \"Zhejiang Fengye Group Co., Ltd.\" was established, officially entering the stainless steel industry.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1739f693edc5047788bfff78b4944285\" tg-width=\"400\" tg-height=\"288\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>After 2005, the entire steel industry entered a destocking cycle. Xiang Guangda realized that if it didn't change, the enterprise would sooner or later be submerged in the torrent of stainless steel enterprises.</p><p>Xiang Guangda invested 10 billion yuan in the research and development of new technologies, took the lead in introducing the internationally advanced rotary kiln-submerged furnace (RKEF) smelting process, and led a team to develop the new technology of RKEF-AOD furnace dual method, which reduced the total energy consumption of stainless steel smelting. It was cut by 50% and saved 800 yuan per ton.</p><p>\"60%-70% of stainless steel is nickel, so who produces nickel? It is produced by foreigners, but we don't produce it ourselves.\" Xiang Guangda put the production of \"nickel\" on the agenda again.</p><p>During the financial crisis in 2008, Xiang Guangda took the opportunity to acquire the Indonesian nickel mine with the highest nickel reserves in the world. Tsingshan Holdings and Indonesia Eight Star Investment Co., Ltd. jointly established Sulawesi Mining Investment Co., Ltd., and obtained the mining right of laterite nickel mine with an area of 47,000 hectares.</p><p>The mining park was quickly established, and in February 2010, nickel produced abroad by a Chinese company for the first time was successfully shipped back to China. Tsingshan Holding Group has conquered the technology of purifying high matte nickel with laterite nickel ore. After the operation, Xiang Guangda has opened up the upstream and downstream of nickel production.</p><p>With \"nickel\" in hand, there is no need to worry about stainless steel. Tsingshan Holding Group has more than ten stainless steel subsidiaries. From 2009 to 2019, Tsingshan Holding's stainless steel output increased from one million tons to tens of millions of tons, and its sales increased from tens of billions to more than 200 billion yuan. At present, it has secured the throne of the world's largest stainless steel manufacturer.</p><p>Xiang Guangda has also become a frequent visitor at the local government enterprise symposium.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c46ceaa170e4d055c8235a32992a6dfb\" tg-width=\"618\" tg-height=\"453\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p>In 2021, the total revenue of Tsingshan Holding Group will reach 292.892 billion, ranking 279th among the world's top 500 companies. Tianyancha shows that Xiang Guangda holds 48.45% of the equity of Tsingshan Holding Group through various channels and is the actual controller of the group.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/684284868a43986c93078ec1487797ce\" tg-width=\"507\" tg-height=\"760\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>▲ Tsingshan Holdings Equity Structure/Screenshot of Tianyancha</p><p>In recent years, the new energy industry has gradually emerged, especially after 2020, new energy has become the hottest track at the moment. The market value of A-share CATL and BYD has exceeded one trillion yuan, and the market value of Tesla even exceeds the combined market value of several established auto companies.</p><p>The new energy industry is short of nickel, and Xiang Guangda has a lot of it. Tsingshan Holdings' nickel output will be 600,000 tons in 2021, reach 850,000 tons in 2022, accounting for 30% of the global total, and will reach 1.1 million tons in 2023.</p><p>Holding nearly 30% of the world's nickel production, it can be said that Xiang Guangda is a proper \"king of nickel\" and has also pinched the life gate of the new energy automobile industry to death.</p><p>If you are not satisfied, you just \"work\" for new energy vehicles. At present, Tsingshan Group has joined hands with Xugong Group to enter the new energy vehicle industry.</p><p>It's just that there are many people who are popular, and pigs on the tuyere are also the easiest targets to be attacked. Xiang Guangda, who survived this \"robbery\" safely, still needs to be careful. He has too much \"nickel\" in his hand, which is too tempting.</p><p></body></html></p>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ed3f5a82dbe41eeb1131b5fe7f4f8e37","relate_stocks":{},"source_url":"","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1128701140","content_text":"这次华尔街失算了，金融领域华尔街还是天下第一，但他们的对手也不是没有长进。中国企业通过多年的努力，已经获得了丰富的市场经验和丰厚的资本，被别人摁在地上暴打时，还是有能力反击的。时隔三个多月，全地球人都知道的“妖镍逼空大战”，终于告一段落：温州首富项光达和他的青山集团全身而退，华尔街巨头摩根大通割肉出局，亏了1.2亿美金（约8亿人民币）。▲青山控股实控人项光达/图源：网络6月29日消息，青山控股集团安全退出了伦敦金属交易所（LME）的大部分镍空头头寸。持仓规模已经缩减至3万吨左右，远低于事发时的超15万吨的峰值，且这些头寸都不是通过摩根大通持有。这很可能是双方协商的结果，青山集团给华尔街大佬留了体面，否则根据当时的情况，1.2亿美金是远远不够的。关注这个事情的朋友可能还“懵着”，传说中的幕后黑手不是瑞士大宗商品巨鳄“嘉能可”吗，怎么最后亏损的是摩根大通？这三个月到底发生了什么？/青山反杀，华尔街失算/简单梳理一下伦镍事件的整个过程：2022年3月7日伦镍期货从2.9万美元/吨，飙涨到5.5万美元/吨，创15年内新高。3月8日伦镍期货从6万美元/吨直线拉升到10万美元/吨，整个过程不超过1小时。3月8日8时15分（英国时间），伦金所暂停所有镍合约的交易，并取消3月8日0点之后的交易，俗称“拔网线”。3月9日，项光达承认被外国资本逼空，已通过多种渠道获得充足现货。3月15日，青山集团表示与期货银行债权人组成的银团达成“静默协议”。期间不会对青山的持仓进行平仓，此后青山集团会减少持仓。3月16日，伦金所镍交易恢复。6月29日，青山集团退出了伦金所的大部分镍空头头寸，事件结束。读到这里，不了解其中细节的人还会有疑问，为什么是青山集团被华尔街资本盯上了呢？还真不能怪华尔街资本，青山集团把自己养成“唐僧肉”，谁不想吃呢。青山集团在此事上有三大致命漏洞：1、青山集团生产的镍，与伦金所交易的交割品不一样。伦金所交割品是纯度高达99.8%以上的电解镍，而青山集团生产的镍只有70%左右高冰镍和含量10%左右的镍铁。2、青山集团的对冲操作有问题。当时它买了20万吨期货空单，但整个伦金所镍库存只有8万吨，也就是说把伦金所的镍都买了，也凑不齐它期货空单的一半。3、平常青山集团遇到交割期，会跟俄罗斯买镍平仓。俄乌冲突导致市场逻辑逆转，俄罗斯的镍被禁运，青山集团没有及时对这一消息有所反应。综上，青山集团虽然家底丰厚，但在这张牌桌上，它把好牌都出了，手里只有“1对3”，别人出什么牌都要不起。遇到这种情况，天生嗜血的华尔街资本，怎么可能放过这场看似“必赢”的围猎。华尔街以前也不是没干过这种事。所以，华尔街资本于3月7日、3月8日两日快速拉升镍期货价格，将两三万美金的东西快速拉升到10万美金，顺带破了“任何一种资产价格波动的最高纪录。”当时的情况就是，青山集团拿不出货就得赔钱上千亿，没钱就得卖印尼的镍矿，中国企业辛辛苦苦建立的新能源产业链，恐将遭到狠狠一棒槌。这次华尔街失算了，金融领域华尔街还是天下第一，但他们的对手也不是没有长进。中国企业通过多年的努力，已经获得了丰富的市场经验和丰厚的资本，被别人摁在地上暴打时，还是有能力反击的。虽然当时还不知道谁下手的，但3月9日，青山集团的反杀就开始了。青山控股回应称，将用旗下高冰镍置换国内金属镍板，已通过多种渠道调配到充足现货进行交割。从小道消息来看，当时业内好几家大型企业都参与到了此次的置换，可谓是众志成城。项光达的原话是：“接到很多电话，国家有关部门和领导对青山都很支持。”那么，最后的结果为什么不是青山集团拿出20万吨镍交割品，交给华尔街接盘侠，让他们拿货无处存放，最后只能低价出售，赔上百亿美金呢？凑了20万吨镍交割品固然能够解决燃眉之急，但这么多镍交出去，国内企业该怎么办？难道所有企业都停止生产，等上几个月，新镍生产出来再恢复生产？这么做，固然很解气，付出的代价也太大了。项光达作为成熟的企业家，3月9日到3月15日，他在能拿出20万吨交割品的底气下，同对手进行了谈判，最终达成了“静默协议”。从6月29日的消息来看，青山集团缩减了空头头寸让自己转危为安，华尔街机构虽然赔了点小钱，但避免了损失扩大化，算是两边都能接受的结果。/谁是“妖镍大战”真正的幕后黑手？/3月初事件发生时，有人按过计算器，说当时青山集团可能亏损80亿到120亿美金，折合人民币上千亿。逼空这么大体量资金，涉及的资金必然不会少。当时有人怀疑大宗商品巨头嘉能可是幕后黑手，目的是为了拿到青山在印尼镍矿60%的股权。嘉能可成立于1974年，是瑞士最大的企业，营业收入高达2151.1亿美元，经营范围覆盖矿产品、能源产品和农产品的供应。但嘉能可不可能自己拿出这么多钱，背后一定有团队。从目前的情况看，至少现在已经逼出来摩根大通和埃利奥特这两头“来自华尔街的狼”。4月，摩根大通第一季财报早就出卖了它，财报显示与镍相关的业务出现了1.2亿美元的亏损。能让华尔街老牌投行一季度在单一期货商品上大亏上亿美元，除了参与了3月的“妖镍逼空”事件，很难有别的理由让人信服。事后相关信息也证明，它是青山集团大量空头头寸的最大交易对手方。而三个月前，在青山逾15万吨的镍空头头寸中，约有5万吨是通过摩根大通场外头寸持有，当时青山控股集团一度欠摩根大通约10亿美元保证金。短短三个月间，摩根大通便陷入了1.2亿美元亏损的泥潭。财务上出了这么大窟窿，负责人总得说点什么吧。摩根大通首席执行官杰米·戴蒙（Jamie Dimon）不情愿地说：“我们本季度有一点亏损，我们会设法渡过难关的。我们会对自己做错了什么，以及伦金所之后可以采取哪些不同措施进行事后分析。”这句话说的很官方，但细品有两重意思：一，他们是在帮客户做事，摩根大通亏了，他们的客户也亏了。至于客户是谁，是不是嘉能可，并没说。二，他们对伦金所“拔网线”的行为是有保留意见的，说不定还得“采取措施”。摩根大通会采取什么措施不好说，但有人已经开始行动了，他们似乎并不认输，还在做最后的挣扎。▲图源/视觉中国根据港交所6月6日发布的公告，6月1日美国著名投资公司“埃利奥特管理公司”向他们发难，认为伦金所“取消2022年3月8日英国时间00：00之后交易的行为不合法。”埃利奥特旗下两只对冲基金将港交所和其子公司伦金所（LME）及其清算公司LME Clear Limite告上英国高等法院，准备索赔约4.56亿美元，约30亿人民币。埃利奥特管理公司成立于1977年，2021年底基金管理规模超515亿美元，它是名副其实的华尔街之狼，以强硬、激进、狠辣的投资风格闻名。埃利奥特到底有多凶狠？它能让一个国家不得安生。2000年底，阿根廷动荡不安，半个月连续换了5任总统，高达1500亿美元的外债无力偿还。正当其他金融机构避之不及时，埃利奥特用6.17亿美元抄底阿根廷国债。此后9年时间里，阿根廷为了重振经济提出债务重组方案，埃利奥特为首的债权人2次无情拒绝，还将阿根廷告上美国法庭。想象不到这招有多狠，可以类比现在债权人不同意恒大重组，恒大会怎样。2017年6月16日，美国最高法院最终判决阿根廷败诉。阿根廷含泪拿出了22.8亿美元和解，这一单埃利奥特赚了3.7倍，但每一分钱都是阿根廷人民的血汗钱。至于到底有多少华尔街的资本机构参与此事，目前还不明确。如果埃利奥特能从与港交所的官司中获胜，或许有可能看到。因为“分肉”的时候，华尔街的狼才会愿意倾巢出动。/“中国镍王”捏住马斯克们命门？ /据《每日经济新闻》报道，嘉能可相关人员在回复是否参与此事时表示，“上述这种说法完全是胡说八道（total nonsense）。”但报道中也同时指出有行内人员认为嘉能可即使没有直接参与，也是这一波行情的间接参与者。市场之所以这样猜测，是因为在全球范围内，对于金属镍的争夺已经进入白热化的阶段。镍是制造新能源三元锂电池的重要原材料之一，在电池总成本中占比将近30%，如果是高镍、超高镍电池这个比例还将更高。但镍元素在全世界分布不均，开采难度大。“镍焦虑”是新能源汽车大佬的普遍问题，连特斯拉CEO马斯克都说，镍原料的短缺是影响电动车电池生产的最大障碍。数据显示，2021年3月至2022年3月，伦金所的镍库存持续下降，降幅接近70%。主要原因是镍交割品被大量买去用于制造新能源电池。预计2023年-2025年镍的缺口分别为-2.56万吨、-2.79万吨、-6.53万吨。这不就是老天爷端着饭碗给项光达喂饭吗？1958年项光达出生于温州龙湾沙城镇的一个普通工人家庭。毕业后在国企干了八年，还当上了车间主任。1988年，项光达准备“三十而立”，他放弃了当时人人羡慕的“铁饭碗”，联合张积敏等亲戚合伙创办了“浙江瓯海汽车门窗制造公司”。由于注重研发，项光达的汽车门窗生意很好。1993年底，他与中国一汽车轮厂联合开发汽车轮辋钢，并投资2400万元，成立“浙江丰业异型钢公司”。并于1995年改组公司，成立“浙江丰业集团有限公司”，正式进入不锈钢行业。2005年之后，整个钢铁行业进入去库存周期。项光达意识到，如果不改变，企业迟早淹没在不锈钢企业的洪流中。项光达拿出100亿投入研发新技术，率先引进国际先进的回转窑—矿热炉（RKEF）冶炼工艺，又带队研发出RKEF—AOD炉双联法新技术，把不锈钢冶炼的总能耗砍掉了50%，每吨成本节省800元。“不锈钢60%--70%都是镍，那镍是谁来生产的？是老外生产的，我们自己没有生产。”项光达又将生产“镍”提到了议事日程。2008年金融危机时，项光达趁机收购了全球镍储量最高的印尼镍矿。青山控股与印尼八星投资有限公司合资设立苏拉威西矿业投资有限公司，获得了面积为4.70万公顷的红土镍矿开采权。矿业园区很快建立，2010年2月，第一次由中国公司在国外生产的镍顺利装船回国。青山控股集团又攻克了用红土镍矿提纯高冰镍的技术，一通操作下来，项光达已经打通了镍生产的上下游。有“镍”在手，不锈钢不愁。青山控股集团旗下有十多家不锈钢类子公司，2009年至2019年，青山控股不锈钢产量从百万吨增至千万吨，销售额从几百亿增至2000多亿元，目前已经坐稳全球最大不锈钢生产企业的宝座。项光达也成为当地政府企业座谈会上的常客。2021年青山控股集团总营收高达2928.92亿，位列世界500强第279位。天眼查显示，项光达通过各种路径，占有青山控股集团的股权比例高达48.45%，是集团的实际控制人。▲青山控股股权结构/天眼查截图这些年，新能源产业逐步兴起，尤其是2020年之后，新能源成为当下最火的赛道，没有之一。A股的宁德时代、比亚迪市值破万亿，特斯拉的市值甚至超过几家老牌汽车公司市值总和。新能源行业缺镍，项光达手里有很多。青山控股2021年镍产量为60万吨，2022年将达到85万吨占到全球总量的30%，2023年更将达到110万吨。手握全球近30%的镍产量，可以说，项光达是妥妥的“镍之王”，也把新能源汽车行业的命门捏得死死的。不满足只是给新能源汽车“打工”，目前青山集团已携手徐工集团，入局新能源汽车产业。只是人红是非多，风口上的猪也是最容易被下手的对象。安然渡过这一“劫”的项光达，还是要小心，他手上的“镍”太多，太诱人了。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":764,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9057159420,"gmtCreate":1655481417560,"gmtModify":1676535648471,"author":{"id":"3578208981838945","authorId":"3578208981838945","name":"211013能量飞车","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e583c75322dd4651672938ebba8683b7","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3578208981838945","idStr":"3578208981838945"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"👍","listText":"👍","text":"👍","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9057159420","repostId":"1138261598","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1138261598","kind":"news","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"创业与投资专业门户","home_visible":1,"media_name":"投资界","id":"1096839439","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2531123ee54a22588d693ba65ab705b3"},"pubTimestamp":1655452320,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1138261598?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2022-06-17 15:52","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"Valued at 800 billion! The craziest unicorn on the surface is born","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1138261598","media":"投资界","summary":"马斯克最疯狂的创业。又一只超级独角兽诞生。本周，据美国证券交易委员的文件显示， 马斯克执掌的SpaceX刚刚完成新一轮17.2亿美元融资，估值高达1250亿美元（约合人民币8400亿元）。如此一来，S","content":"<p><html><head></head><body>Musk's craziest startup. Another super unicorn was born.</p><p>This week, according to documents from the US Securities and Exchange Commission, Musk's SpaceX has just completed a new round of financing of US $1.72 billion, with a valuation of US $125 billion (approximately RMB 840 billion). As a result, SpaceX has become the third largest unicorn in the world, second only to ByteDance and<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/06688\">Ant Group</a>。</p><p>SpaceX is undoubtedly another legend created by the madman Musk. This commercial aerospace company, founded by him in 2002, has suffered numerous failures and gradually turned the \"impossibility\" of commercial manned aviation into a reality. From Falcon rockets, Dragon spacecraft, to Starlink and Starship, Musk spent 20 years building a huge commercial aerospace empire. In his vision,<b>SpaceX wants to send 1 million people to Mars to realize childhood dreams of Mars</b>。</p><p><b>The valuation is staggering, second only to ByteDance and Ant</b></p><p><b>To send 1 million people to Mars</b></p><p>SpaceX, what kind of new species is it?</p><p>Musk is most proud of the \"Falcon\" series of rockets launched by SpaceX. In 2003, NASA decided to transfer the low-Earth orbit business to a commercial company. In order to win this large order, Musk personally served as the chief engineer of the team and participated in the study of almost every detail of the Falcon rocket. In the end, SpaceX stood out.</p><p>But what really made SpaceX famous was the Falcon 9 rocket, which can send payloads to low-Earth orbit weighing 1,300 tons. After several verifications and failures, it was launched on December 21, 2015. The first rocket recovery was successfully completed on the same day, shocking the world.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f955c579f40784dbeb99bdd3c9249b18\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"496\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>SpaceX is also known as the \"Dragon Spacecraft\", which is the world's first spacecraft developed by a private company. The test flight was successful on December 8, 2010. In October 2012, cargo weighing 455 kilograms was delivered to the International Space Station for the first time. In September last year, four ordinary people were sent into space for the first time. It took the Dragon spacecraft 11 years to complete the transition from cargo to manned. At the beginning of this year, SpaceX announced that the Dragon spacecraft would stop production and \"retire\" honorably.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/96d1f3b61cba41cbcc59561868f49876\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"498\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>There is also the feared SpaceX space Internet plan-\"Starlink\". This plan was born in 2015. Musk set a goal to launch about 12,000 satellites into space between 2019 and 2024 to provide users with Internet services, of which 1,584 will be deployed 550 kilometers above the earth. low Earth orbit.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/67f5d9d83b045e02fe203d5b057c5a2e\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"498\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>It is worth mentioning that the number of launches planned by Starlink has increased significantly to 42,000, which will be the largest satellite launch plan so far.</p><p>As of May this year, SpaceX has covered Starlink services to 32 countries on four continents, including Europe, most of North America, South America, Australia and New Zealand. Musk has said that the number of satellite Internet users in Starlink may exceed 250,000, and the annual reservation amount exceeds US $300 million.</p><p>There is no craziest, only crazier. Musk's Mars immigration plan is becoming a reality: \"Starship\" has just received the environmental impact assessment results of the FAA (Federal Aviation Administration), and is one step closer to its first orbital flight test. This is a new generation of space transportation system being developed by SpaceX. Starships can send humans and cargo to the moon, Mars and other deep space destinations, and can also be used to launch Starlink satellites.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2570d511cc7a0c5d5a0203e49be8429d\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"503\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Musk once called this a modern version of Noah's Ark. He wants to build more than 1,000 starships to transport about 1 million people to Mars.</p><p>With its whimsy, SpaceX has become one of the most lucrative super unicorns in the primary market. Since 2015, SpaceX has raised an average of more than $1 billion a year. In December last year, SpaceX had just received a new round of financing of US $337 million. In 2021, it won a total of US $1.85 billion. At that time, its valuation had reached US $100 billion.</p><p>Now, this financing record has been broken by SpaceX itself. According to a document submitted to the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission on June 13, SpaceX has completed a new round of equity financing of US $1.72 billion and sold approximately US $1.68 billion in new shares, corresponding to a valuation of US $125 billion. In this way,<b>SpaceX has jumped into the top three start-ups in the world by valuation, second only to ByteDance and Ant Group.</b></p><p>Not long ago, Musk revealed that he would only consider a public listing when the cash flow of Starlink's satellite broadband service became reasonably predictable. It can be expected that this will be another super IPO in the world.</p><p><b>Musk's most expensive and craziest startup</b></p><p><b>Twice on the verge of bankruptcy</b></p><p>Compared to<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TSLA\">Tesla</a>, Musk may be more worried about the dream of Mars.</p><p>Musk was born in Pretoria, South Africa in 1971. His father was an electromechanical engineer, his mother was a model, and he also worked as a writer and nutritionist. Deeply influenced by his father, he was obsessed with science and technology as a child. The 12-year-old wrote the code for a game blastar himself and sold it for $500.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/93d351c69b1fe8d76aca890976da9014\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"720\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Musk once recalled, \"When I was a child, people often asked me what I wanted to be when I grew up, but I didn't actually know. Later, I thought it would be cool to invent, because science fiction novelist Arthur Clark (\" 2001: A Space Odyssey \"author) once said that any advanced enough technology is no different from magic.\"</p><p>Later, Musk entered the University of Pennsylvania and Stanford University for further study. He successively developed the corporate yellow pages website zip2 and online payment software<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/PYPL\">PayPal</a>。 At the end of 2000, Musk and his family traveled to Africa, but they contracted malaria and almost died.</p><p>This experience made Musk realize that life is short, and he had a similar idea to Jobs:<b>Hurry up and do great things.</b>So, he decided to enter the rocket industry and fulfill his childhood dream of space.</p><p>In 2002, when PayPal sold $1.5 billion in stock<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/EBAY\">eBay</a>After the acquisition, 31-year-old Musk earned his first $1 billion in his life. Musk, who could have let himself go and enjoyed life, unexpectedly began to lead a crazier life.</p><p>In June 2002, Musk founded Space Exploration Technology Company, SpaceX, amid doubts and ridicule from the outside world, vowing to reduce the cost of launching satellite rockets by 100 times. \"People I talked to at that time advised me not to do it. A friend even went to find a film of a rocket explosion to show me. He is actually right. I have never made a physical product, so it was really difficult at first.\"</p><p>For many years, Musk and the technical team worked like lunatics, but suffered three launch failures in succession. In 2008, Musk encountered an unprecedented crisis in his life-because of the global financial crisis, his capital chain was broken, SpaceX was questioned, and Tesla, which he founded, even reached the end of his tether-the investment was not settled, and consumers were also reluctant to buy electric cars.</p><p>Those were the hardest days in Musk's life. In order to pay employees, Musk, who has always been arrogant, began to ask friends for help, asking rich friends to invest US $500,000 to US $2 million, and poor friends to invest US $25,000 to US $50,000.</p><p>Recalling this experience many years later, Musk still choked up: \"While chewing glass, he stared at the abyss of death.\" In the words of his girlfriend Riley at the time, Musk \"looked like a walking zombie\" at that time, as if he would die of a heart attack at any time.</p><p>There's no way to go. Fortunately, the fourth launch of SpaceX's \"Falcon 1\" was finally successful, so it received a large order of US $1.6 billion from NASA and finally survived.</p><p>In 2020, SpaceX completed an epic launch mission in human history. In the early morning of May 30 of that year, SpaceX's spacecraft Crew Dragon was successfully launched from the Kennedy Space Center in the United States carrying two senior astronauts Bob Behnken and Doug Hurley and flew to the International Space Station. For all mankind, the completion of manned launch missions by commercial rocket companies is a turning point of great historical significance. It is driven by SpaceX that the global aerospace industry has entered the era of commercialization. Musk also won the title of \"Iron Man of Silicon Valley\".</p><p>Since then, SpaceX has moved forward steadily, but Musk remains cautious. On Thanksgiving last year, Musk emailed Space X employees that the company may face the risk of bankruptcy as the Raptor engine, the master of Space X innovation, fell into a production crisis.</p><p>But the Martian dream is getting closer. According to reports, SpaceX's \"Starship\" may complete its first orbital flight in July. Musk revealed on social networks that the second \"Starship\" is ready to fly in August and \"will fly once a month after that.\"</p><p>Musk has become the strongest technology madman on the surface. Whether it is Tesla or Space X, or brain-computer interface... these seemingly bold, crazy and even absurd ultimate ambitions are becoming reality bit by bit with his efforts.</p><p><b>How long will it take for Space X to be born in China?</b></p><p>When we turn our attention back to China, China's commercial aerospace arena is also surging.</p><p>An investor in Beijing who has long been paying attention to the commercial aerospace track admitted frankly that since 2015, it has been almost seven years since domestic VC/PE entered the commercial aerospace field. When the time has come to this day, investors no longer want to listen to the founders telling stories and talking about their visions. Everyone urgently needs to see a milestone achievement that can support the future.</p><p>But the reality is not as people hope.</p><p>Not long ago, a sad news came out in the commercial aerospace field-on May 13, the Hyperbola-1 rocket of the private rocket company Interstellar Glory failed to launch for the third time in a row, resulting in the loss of all satellites carried on the rocket. Founded in 2016, Interstellar Glory is the first private enterprise in China to pass the technical threshold of \"into orbit\" launch vehicle.</p><p>Since its establishment, Interstellar Glory has officially announced a new round of financing almost every year, but the latest financing stayed in 2020-that year, Interstellar Glory completed a Series B financing of 1.1925 billion yuan, setting a single round in the domestic commercial aerospace field that year. The highest financing record.</p><p>Although everyone knows that start-up rocket launches cannot be guaranteed to be successful every time, SpaceX has also experienced three launch failures. But when it comes to this matter, the partner of a well-known VC institution in China still can't hide his loss. \"My heart is cold, broken all over the floor, and broken all night.\"</p><p>Here is a set of cruel figures: Since the rise of domestic commercial aerospace, domestic private rocket companies have tried a total of 8 orbital launches, with a total of 3 successful launches, namely 1 for Interstellar Glory and 2 for Galaxy Power. Overall, the overall success rate of commercial launches is 37.5%, and the probability of failure is still high. It must be known that every launch costs a lot, and everyone from the investment institution to the LP behind it is facing tremendous pressure, not to mention<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/V03.SI\">Startups</a>And the founders themselves.</p><p>Compared with commercial rockets, commercial satellite companies are making gratifying progress. On February 27 this year, the \"Long March 8\" Yao-2 carrier rocket carried out the \"22 satellites with one rocket\" carpooling launch mission at Wenchang Launch Center in Hainan, setting a record for the largest number of satellites launched in a single time in China, and also handed over the first full-score answer sheet for commercial satellite sharing launch.</p><p>In this mission, 18 satellites are all from private commercial satellite enterprises, 5 satellites are developed by Micro-Nano Starry Sky, 2 by Tianyi Research Institute, 10 by Changguang Satellite, and 1 by Chengdu Star Times Aerospace Technology Co., Ltd. Among them, the cumulative launch weight of the five satellites in the micro-nano starry sky exceeds 800kg, which is close to half of the total launch weight of the Long March 8 Yao-2 rocket.</p><p>What's even more surprising is that among the 22 satellites launched this time, the commercial aerospace enterprise Skylink TT&C guaranteed the TT&C tasks of 19 of them, creating the largest number of satellites guaranteed by Chinese commercial aerospace enterprises in a single launch mission. record.</p><p>A VC who has been paying attention to the field of hard technology all the year round bluntly said that compared with the commercial aerospace process abroad, China has only gone less than 1/3, and there is still a long way to go, but the opportunities far outweigh the challenges. Therefore, we see that the number of investors paying attention to commercial aerospace is still increasing.</p><p>According to incomplete statistics, in the first quarter of this year, at least 21 domestic commercial aerospace companies announced financing, with a total amount of public financing of nearly 4 billion yuan. Compared with 2021, the financing situation of commercial aerospace this year has shown a recovery trend.</p><p>Among them, one of the most sensational financing is the A round of financing of Oriental Space. In May, Oriental Space announced the completion of RMB 400 million Series A financing, led by Shanhang Capital, followed by CMBC International, Mihayou, Xinghan Capital, Yuanjing Capital, Zhichun Capital, Yuanhe Origin, Fanzhuo Capital, etc. Follow-up investment, old shareholders Dinghe Gundam, Tianfu Sanjiang Capital and other institutions continue to support it. MiHoYo and co-founder Cai Haoyu have made a lot of money with the game \"Genshin Impact\", and now they are rarely investing in commercial aerospace.</p><p>The helm of Oriental Space is Yao Song, a post-90s academic tyrant. In 2011, he was admitted to the Department of Electronic Engineering of Tsinghua University. After graduation, he co-founded Shenjian Technology and was eventually<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/XLNX\">Xilinx</a>Acquired for US $300 million. Later, Yao Song launched the unlimited fund SEE Fund, focusing on hard-core technology, and completed the first phase of fund raising of 200 million yuan at the beginning of this year. In October 2021, he officially joined Oriental Space as CEO.</p><p>In addition, commercial aerospace companies such as Galaxy Power Aerospace, Deep Blue Aerospace, Tianyi Research Institute, Science and Technology Rocket, and Micro-Motion Space-Time have completed a new round of financing, covering satellite applications such as satellite Internet, overall rocket manufacturing, rocket accessories or supporting equipment manufacturing, and satellite Subdivisions such as overall manufacturing and supporting equipment manufacturing. At this point, a batch of fresh blood has poured into commercial aerospace.</p><p><b>\"I believe that there will be new entrants in this field, which will continue to bring new vitality to the development of the industry.\"</b>An investor who has been concerned about commercial aerospace for a long time admitted frankly that next, for most commercial aerospace companies, the most critical task is to achieve a commercial closed loop-rocket companies must strive to launch rockets with a carrying capacity of more than 500 kilograms, while satellite companies It is necessary to consider commercial orders after the satellite is launched.</p><p>There is a view circulating in the VC/PE circle: the unknown space is the last of mankind<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/000997\">New World</a>。 In the words of investors, Chinese people who missed the \"Great Navigation Age\" must never miss the upcoming \"Great Aerospace Age\" again. This is an epic journey to the stars and sea.</p><p></body></html></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Valued at 800 billion! The craziest unicorn on the surface is born</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nValued at 800 billion! The craziest unicorn on the surface is born\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/1096839439\">\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/2531123ee54a22588d693ba65ab705b3);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">投资界 </p>\n<p class=\"h-time smaller\">2022-06-17 15:52</p>\n</div>\n</a>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><html><head></head><body>Musk's craziest startup. Another super unicorn was born.</p><p>This week, according to documents from the US Securities and Exchange Commission, Musk's SpaceX has just completed a new round of financing of US $1.72 billion, with a valuation of US $125 billion (approximately RMB 840 billion). As a result, SpaceX has become the third largest unicorn in the world, second only to ByteDance and<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/06688\">Ant Group</a>。</p><p>SpaceX is undoubtedly another legend created by the madman Musk. This commercial aerospace company, founded by him in 2002, has suffered numerous failures and gradually turned the \"impossibility\" of commercial manned aviation into a reality. From Falcon rockets, Dragon spacecraft, to Starlink and Starship, Musk spent 20 years building a huge commercial aerospace empire. In his vision,<b>SpaceX wants to send 1 million people to Mars to realize childhood dreams of Mars</b>。</p><p><b>The valuation is staggering, second only to ByteDance and Ant</b></p><p><b>To send 1 million people to Mars</b></p><p>SpaceX, what kind of new species is it?</p><p>Musk is most proud of the \"Falcon\" series of rockets launched by SpaceX. In 2003, NASA decided to transfer the low-Earth orbit business to a commercial company. In order to win this large order, Musk personally served as the chief engineer of the team and participated in the study of almost every detail of the Falcon rocket. In the end, SpaceX stood out.</p><p>But what really made SpaceX famous was the Falcon 9 rocket, which can send payloads to low-Earth orbit weighing 1,300 tons. After several verifications and failures, it was launched on December 21, 2015. The first rocket recovery was successfully completed on the same day, shocking the world.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f955c579f40784dbeb99bdd3c9249b18\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"496\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>SpaceX is also known as the \"Dragon Spacecraft\", which is the world's first spacecraft developed by a private company. The test flight was successful on December 8, 2010. In October 2012, cargo weighing 455 kilograms was delivered to the International Space Station for the first time. In September last year, four ordinary people were sent into space for the first time. It took the Dragon spacecraft 11 years to complete the transition from cargo to manned. At the beginning of this year, SpaceX announced that the Dragon spacecraft would stop production and \"retire\" honorably.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/96d1f3b61cba41cbcc59561868f49876\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"498\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>There is also the feared SpaceX space Internet plan-\"Starlink\". This plan was born in 2015. Musk set a goal to launch about 12,000 satellites into space between 2019 and 2024 to provide users with Internet services, of which 1,584 will be deployed 550 kilometers above the earth. low Earth orbit.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/67f5d9d83b045e02fe203d5b057c5a2e\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"498\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>It is worth mentioning that the number of launches planned by Starlink has increased significantly to 42,000, which will be the largest satellite launch plan so far.</p><p>As of May this year, SpaceX has covered Starlink services to 32 countries on four continents, including Europe, most of North America, South America, Australia and New Zealand. Musk has said that the number of satellite Internet users in Starlink may exceed 250,000, and the annual reservation amount exceeds US $300 million.</p><p>There is no craziest, only crazier. Musk's Mars immigration plan is becoming a reality: \"Starship\" has just received the environmental impact assessment results of the FAA (Federal Aviation Administration), and is one step closer to its first orbital flight test. This is a new generation of space transportation system being developed by SpaceX. Starships can send humans and cargo to the moon, Mars and other deep space destinations, and can also be used to launch Starlink satellites.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2570d511cc7a0c5d5a0203e49be8429d\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"503\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Musk once called this a modern version of Noah's Ark. He wants to build more than 1,000 starships to transport about 1 million people to Mars.</p><p>With its whimsy, SpaceX has become one of the most lucrative super unicorns in the primary market. Since 2015, SpaceX has raised an average of more than $1 billion a year. In December last year, SpaceX had just received a new round of financing of US $337 million. In 2021, it won a total of US $1.85 billion. At that time, its valuation had reached US $100 billion.</p><p>Now, this financing record has been broken by SpaceX itself. According to a document submitted to the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission on June 13, SpaceX has completed a new round of equity financing of US $1.72 billion and sold approximately US $1.68 billion in new shares, corresponding to a valuation of US $125 billion. In this way,<b>SpaceX has jumped into the top three start-ups in the world by valuation, second only to ByteDance and Ant Group.</b></p><p>Not long ago, Musk revealed that he would only consider a public listing when the cash flow of Starlink's satellite broadband service became reasonably predictable. It can be expected that this will be another super IPO in the world.</p><p><b>Musk's most expensive and craziest startup</b></p><p><b>Twice on the verge of bankruptcy</b></p><p>Compared to<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TSLA\">Tesla</a>, Musk may be more worried about the dream of Mars.</p><p>Musk was born in Pretoria, South Africa in 1971. His father was an electromechanical engineer, his mother was a model, and he also worked as a writer and nutritionist. Deeply influenced by his father, he was obsessed with science and technology as a child. The 12-year-old wrote the code for a game blastar himself and sold it for $500.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/93d351c69b1fe8d76aca890976da9014\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"720\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Musk once recalled, \"When I was a child, people often asked me what I wanted to be when I grew up, but I didn't actually know. Later, I thought it would be cool to invent, because science fiction novelist Arthur Clark (\" 2001: A Space Odyssey \"author) once said that any advanced enough technology is no different from magic.\"</p><p>Later, Musk entered the University of Pennsylvania and Stanford University for further study. He successively developed the corporate yellow pages website zip2 and online payment software<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/PYPL\">PayPal</a>。 At the end of 2000, Musk and his family traveled to Africa, but they contracted malaria and almost died.</p><p>This experience made Musk realize that life is short, and he had a similar idea to Jobs:<b>Hurry up and do great things.</b>So, he decided to enter the rocket industry and fulfill his childhood dream of space.</p><p>In 2002, when PayPal sold $1.5 billion in stock<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/EBAY\">eBay</a>After the acquisition, 31-year-old Musk earned his first $1 billion in his life. Musk, who could have let himself go and enjoyed life, unexpectedly began to lead a crazier life.</p><p>In June 2002, Musk founded Space Exploration Technology Company, SpaceX, amid doubts and ridicule from the outside world, vowing to reduce the cost of launching satellite rockets by 100 times. \"People I talked to at that time advised me not to do it. A friend even went to find a film of a rocket explosion to show me. He is actually right. I have never made a physical product, so it was really difficult at first.\"</p><p>For many years, Musk and the technical team worked like lunatics, but suffered three launch failures in succession. In 2008, Musk encountered an unprecedented crisis in his life-because of the global financial crisis, his capital chain was broken, SpaceX was questioned, and Tesla, which he founded, even reached the end of his tether-the investment was not settled, and consumers were also reluctant to buy electric cars.</p><p>Those were the hardest days in Musk's life. In order to pay employees, Musk, who has always been arrogant, began to ask friends for help, asking rich friends to invest US $500,000 to US $2 million, and poor friends to invest US $25,000 to US $50,000.</p><p>Recalling this experience many years later, Musk still choked up: \"While chewing glass, he stared at the abyss of death.\" In the words of his girlfriend Riley at the time, Musk \"looked like a walking zombie\" at that time, as if he would die of a heart attack at any time.</p><p>There's no way to go. Fortunately, the fourth launch of SpaceX's \"Falcon 1\" was finally successful, so it received a large order of US $1.6 billion from NASA and finally survived.</p><p>In 2020, SpaceX completed an epic launch mission in human history. In the early morning of May 30 of that year, SpaceX's spacecraft Crew Dragon was successfully launched from the Kennedy Space Center in the United States carrying two senior astronauts Bob Behnken and Doug Hurley and flew to the International Space Station. For all mankind, the completion of manned launch missions by commercial rocket companies is a turning point of great historical significance. It is driven by SpaceX that the global aerospace industry has entered the era of commercialization. Musk also won the title of \"Iron Man of Silicon Valley\".</p><p>Since then, SpaceX has moved forward steadily, but Musk remains cautious. On Thanksgiving last year, Musk emailed Space X employees that the company may face the risk of bankruptcy as the Raptor engine, the master of Space X innovation, fell into a production crisis.</p><p>But the Martian dream is getting closer. According to reports, SpaceX's \"Starship\" may complete its first orbital flight in July. Musk revealed on social networks that the second \"Starship\" is ready to fly in August and \"will fly once a month after that.\"</p><p>Musk has become the strongest technology madman on the surface. Whether it is Tesla or Space X, or brain-computer interface... these seemingly bold, crazy and even absurd ultimate ambitions are becoming reality bit by bit with his efforts.</p><p><b>How long will it take for Space X to be born in China?</b></p><p>When we turn our attention back to China, China's commercial aerospace arena is also surging.</p><p>An investor in Beijing who has long been paying attention to the commercial aerospace track admitted frankly that since 2015, it has been almost seven years since domestic VC/PE entered the commercial aerospace field. When the time has come to this day, investors no longer want to listen to the founders telling stories and talking about their visions. Everyone urgently needs to see a milestone achievement that can support the future.</p><p>But the reality is not as people hope.</p><p>Not long ago, a sad news came out in the commercial aerospace field-on May 13, the Hyperbola-1 rocket of the private rocket company Interstellar Glory failed to launch for the third time in a row, resulting in the loss of all satellites carried on the rocket. Founded in 2016, Interstellar Glory is the first private enterprise in China to pass the technical threshold of \"into orbit\" launch vehicle.</p><p>Since its establishment, Interstellar Glory has officially announced a new round of financing almost every year, but the latest financing stayed in 2020-that year, Interstellar Glory completed a Series B financing of 1.1925 billion yuan, setting a single round in the domestic commercial aerospace field that year. The highest financing record.</p><p>Although everyone knows that start-up rocket launches cannot be guaranteed to be successful every time, SpaceX has also experienced three launch failures. But when it comes to this matter, the partner of a well-known VC institution in China still can't hide his loss. \"My heart is cold, broken all over the floor, and broken all night.\"</p><p>Here is a set of cruel figures: Since the rise of domestic commercial aerospace, domestic private rocket companies have tried a total of 8 orbital launches, with a total of 3 successful launches, namely 1 for Interstellar Glory and 2 for Galaxy Power. Overall, the overall success rate of commercial launches is 37.5%, and the probability of failure is still high. It must be known that every launch costs a lot, and everyone from the investment institution to the LP behind it is facing tremendous pressure, not to mention<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/V03.SI\">Startups</a>And the founders themselves.</p><p>Compared with commercial rockets, commercial satellite companies are making gratifying progress. On February 27 this year, the \"Long March 8\" Yao-2 carrier rocket carried out the \"22 satellites with one rocket\" carpooling launch mission at Wenchang Launch Center in Hainan, setting a record for the largest number of satellites launched in a single time in China, and also handed over the first full-score answer sheet for commercial satellite sharing launch.</p><p>In this mission, 18 satellites are all from private commercial satellite enterprises, 5 satellites are developed by Micro-Nano Starry Sky, 2 by Tianyi Research Institute, 10 by Changguang Satellite, and 1 by Chengdu Star Times Aerospace Technology Co., Ltd. Among them, the cumulative launch weight of the five satellites in the micro-nano starry sky exceeds 800kg, which is close to half of the total launch weight of the Long March 8 Yao-2 rocket.</p><p>What's even more surprising is that among the 22 satellites launched this time, the commercial aerospace enterprise Skylink TT&C guaranteed the TT&C tasks of 19 of them, creating the largest number of satellites guaranteed by Chinese commercial aerospace enterprises in a single launch mission. record.</p><p>A VC who has been paying attention to the field of hard technology all the year round bluntly said that compared with the commercial aerospace process abroad, China has only gone less than 1/3, and there is still a long way to go, but the opportunities far outweigh the challenges. Therefore, we see that the number of investors paying attention to commercial aerospace is still increasing.</p><p>According to incomplete statistics, in the first quarter of this year, at least 21 domestic commercial aerospace companies announced financing, with a total amount of public financing of nearly 4 billion yuan. Compared with 2021, the financing situation of commercial aerospace this year has shown a recovery trend.</p><p>Among them, one of the most sensational financing is the A round of financing of Oriental Space. In May, Oriental Space announced the completion of RMB 400 million Series A financing, led by Shanhang Capital, followed by CMBC International, Mihayou, Xinghan Capital, Yuanjing Capital, Zhichun Capital, Yuanhe Origin, Fanzhuo Capital, etc. Follow-up investment, old shareholders Dinghe Gundam, Tianfu Sanjiang Capital and other institutions continue to support it. MiHoYo and co-founder Cai Haoyu have made a lot of money with the game \"Genshin Impact\", and now they are rarely investing in commercial aerospace.</p><p>The helm of Oriental Space is Yao Song, a post-90s academic tyrant. In 2011, he was admitted to the Department of Electronic Engineering of Tsinghua University. After graduation, he co-founded Shenjian Technology and was eventually<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/XLNX\">Xilinx</a>Acquired for US $300 million. Later, Yao Song launched the unlimited fund SEE Fund, focusing on hard-core technology, and completed the first phase of fund raising of 200 million yuan at the beginning of this year. In October 2021, he officially joined Oriental Space as CEO.</p><p>In addition, commercial aerospace companies such as Galaxy Power Aerospace, Deep Blue Aerospace, Tianyi Research Institute, Science and Technology Rocket, and Micro-Motion Space-Time have completed a new round of financing, covering satellite applications such as satellite Internet, overall rocket manufacturing, rocket accessories or supporting equipment manufacturing, and satellite Subdivisions such as overall manufacturing and supporting equipment manufacturing. At this point, a batch of fresh blood has poured into commercial aerospace.</p><p><b>\"I believe that there will be new entrants in this field, which will continue to bring new vitality to the development of the industry.\"</b>An investor who has been concerned about commercial aerospace for a long time admitted frankly that next, for most commercial aerospace companies, the most critical task is to achieve a commercial closed loop-rocket companies must strive to launch rockets with a carrying capacity of more than 500 kilograms, while satellite companies It is necessary to consider commercial orders after the satellite is launched.</p><p>There is a view circulating in the VC/PE circle: the unknown space is the last of mankind<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/000997\">New World</a>。 In the words of investors, Chinese people who missed the \"Great Navigation Age\" must never miss the upcoming \"Great Aerospace Age\" again. This is an epic journey to the stars and sea.</p><p></body></html></p>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/91c221b4ac55789dfc5e5e70ad3b86f7","relate_stocks":{},"source_url":"","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1138261598","content_text":"马斯克最疯狂的创业。又一只超级独角兽诞生。本周，据美国证券交易委员的文件显示， 马斯克执掌的SpaceX刚刚完成新一轮17.2亿美元融资，估值高达1250亿美元（约合人民币8400亿元）。如此一来，SpaceX一跃成为全球第三大独角兽，仅次于字节跳动和蚂蚁集团。SpaceX，无疑是狂人马斯克缔造的又一个传奇。这家由他成立于2002年的商业航天公司，承受了无数次的失败，一步步将商业载人航空的“不可能”变为一个个现实。从猎鹰火箭、龙飞船，再到星链、星舰，马斯克用20年的时间，打造出一个庞大的商业航天帝国。在他的设想里，SpaceX要送100万人上火星，实现儿时的火星梦。估值惊人，仅次于字节跳动、蚂蚁要送100万人上火星SpaceX，究竟是一个什么样的新物种？马斯克最引以为豪的，是SpaceX推出的“猎鹰”系列火箭。2003年，NASA决定将近地轨道业务转交给商业化公司，马斯克为了拿下这笔大订单，亲自担任团队的首席工程师，参与研究了猎鹰火箭的几乎每一个细节。最终，SpaceX脱颖而出。但真正令SpaceX声名大噪的则是猎鹰9号火箭，该火箭可以将有效载荷发送到重达1300吨的近地轨道，并在经历了数次的验证和失败后，于2015年12月21日成功完成首次火箭回收，震惊世界。SpaceX为人熟知的还有“龙飞船”，这是世界上第一艘由私人公司研发的航天飞船。2010年12月8日试飞成功，2012年10月首次向国际空间站运送重达455公斤的货物，去年9月第一次将四名普通人送入太空，龙飞船用11年的时间完成了由货运向载人的转变。今年年初，SpaceX宣布龙飞船将停止生产，光荣“退休”。还有令人忌惮的SpaceX太空互联网计划——“星链”（Starlink）。这项计划诞生于2015年，马斯克制定了一个目标，是在2019年至2024年间向太空发射约1.2万颗卫星，为用户提供互联网服务，其中1584颗将部署在地球上空550千米处的近地轨道。值得一提的是，星链最新计划的发射数量已大幅增加至4.2万颗，这将是目前为止最庞大的卫星发射计划。截至今年5月，SpaceX已经将星链服务范围覆盖到了全球四大洲的32个国家，包括了欧洲、北美洲的大部分地区、南美洲、澳大利亚和新西兰。马斯克曾表示，星链卫星互联网用户可能超过25万人，每年预定金额超过3亿美元。没有最疯狂，只有更疯狂。马斯克火星移民计划正在变为现实：“星舰”刚刚得到了FAA（美国联邦航空管理局）的环评结果，距离首次轨道飞行测试又近了一步。这是SpaceX正在开发的新一代航天运输系统，星舰可以将人类和货物送往月球、火星和其他深空目的地，也可以用来发射星链卫星。马斯克曾称这是现代版的诺亚方舟，他要建造1000枚以上星舰运送大约100万人上火星。凭借着异想天开，SpaceX成为一级市场最吸金的超级独角兽之一。自2015年以来，SpaceX 平均每年筹集超过10亿美元。去年12月，SpaceX刚刚获得3.37 亿美元的新一轮融资，2021年累计拿下了18.5亿美元，彼时估值已高达1000亿美元。现在，这一融资纪录被SpaceX自己打破了。根据一份6月13日提交给美国证券交易委员会的文件显示， SpaceX已完成17.2亿美元新一轮股权融资，发售了约16.8亿美元新股，对应的估值达到了1250亿美元。如此一来，SpaceX一跃成为全球估值前三大的初创企业，仅次于字节跳动和蚂蚁集团。不久前，马斯克透露，当星链卫星宽带服务的现金流变得可以合理预测时，他才会考虑公开上市。可以预料，这将会是全球又一个超级IPO。马斯克最贵最疯狂的创业两次濒临破产相比特斯拉，马斯克更为牵挂的可能是火星梦。1971年，马斯克出生在南非的比勒陀利亚，父亲是机电工程师，母亲是个模特，还兼任作家和营养师。深受父亲的熏陶，他小时候就痴迷于科学和技术。12岁的他自己写了一个游戏 blastar 的代码，卖了500美元。马斯克曾回忆，“小时候，人们常会问我，长大要做什么，我其实也不知道。后来我想，搞发明应该会很酷吧，因为科幻小说家亚瑟·克拉克（《2001太空漫游》作者）曾说过，任何足够先进的科技都与魔法无异。”后来，马斯克进入美国宾州大学和斯坦福大学深造，他先后开发了企业黄页网站 zip2 和网上支付软件 PayPal。2000年底，马斯克和家人去非洲旅行，结果染上了疟疾，差一点死掉。这一次经历让马斯克意识到生命短暂，产生了与乔布斯类似的想法：要抓紧时间做伟大的事情。于是，他决定进军火箭业，完成自己儿时的太空梦。2002年，当PayPal以15亿美元的股票被eBay收购后，31岁的马斯克赚到了人生第一个10亿美元。原本可以放飞自我、享受生活的马斯克，却出乎意料地开始向更疯狂的人生。2002年6月，马斯克在外界的质疑声和嘲笑中创立了太空探索技术公司，这便是SpaceX，发誓要将卫星火箭发射升空成本降低100倍。“当时跟我谈过的人，都劝我不要做，有个朋友还特别去找了火箭爆炸的影片给我看。他其实也没错，我从来没做过实体的产品，所以一开始真的很困难。”此后多年，马斯克和技术团队像疯子一样工作，但却接连遭遇三次发射失败。2008年，马斯克遭遇了人生中前所未有的危机——因为全球金融危机，他的资金链断了，SpaceX备受质疑，而创办的特斯拉甚至走到了山穷水尽的地步——投资没有着落，消费者也不愿意购买电汽车。那是马斯克人生最艰难的日子。为了给员工发工资，一向心高气傲的马斯克开始向朋友求援，请求有钱的朋友投资50万～200万美元，没钱的朋友投资2.5万～5万美元。多年后回忆起这段经历，马斯克依然哽咽：“一边嚼着玻璃，一边凝视死亡的深渊”。用他当时女友莱莉的话来说，马斯克那时“看起来就像个行走的僵尸”，好像随时会突发心脏病死去。天无绝人之路。所幸的是，SpaceX“猎鹰1号”的第四次发射终于成功，因此从NASA拿到16亿美元的大订单，终于活了下来。2020年，SpaceX完成了人类历史上一次史诗级的发射任务。当年5月30日凌晨，SpaceX公司的航天器龙飞船（Crew Dragon）载着两位资深宇航员Bob Behnken和Doug Hurley从美国肯尼迪航天中心发射成功，飞往国际空间站。对于全人类来说，商业火箭公司完成载人发射任务，是一个极具历史意义的转折点。正是在SpaceX带动下，全球航天产业进入商业化时代。马斯克也因此赢得了“硅谷钢铁侠”的称号。此后，SpaceX稳步前行，但马斯克依旧小心翼翼。去年感恩节，马斯克给Space X员工发电子邮件，由于Space X创新的集大成者——猛禽发动机陷入了生产危机，公司可能面临破产风险。但火星梦越来越近了。据报道，SpaceX公司“星际飞船”可能于7月完成首次轨道飞行。马斯克在社交网络上透露，第二艘“星际飞船”准备于8月飞行，“之后将每月飞行一次”。马斯克，俨然成为了地表最强的科技狂人。无论是特斯拉还是Space X，亦或脑机接口……这些看似大胆、疯狂甚至荒唐的终极野心，在他努力下正一点一点变成现实。中国诞生Space X还需多久？我们把视线回到国内，中国商业航天江湖同样风起云涌。北京一位长期关注商业航天赛道的投资人坦言，从2015年开始算起，至今国内VC/PE进入商业航天领域已经快7年多了。时间来到今天，投资人不想再听创始人讲故事、谈愿景，大家亟需看到一个足以支撑未来的里程碑成绩。但现实并不如人所愿。不久前，商业航天领域传出一个难过的消息——5月13日，民营火箭公司星际荣耀的双曲线一号火箭连续第三次发射失败，导致箭上携带的卫星全部损失。星际荣耀成立于2016年，是中国第一家迈过“入轨”这一运载火箭技术门槛的民营企业。自成立起，星际荣耀几乎每年官宣新一轮融资，但最近一笔融资停留在2020年——当年，星际荣耀完成了11.925亿元人民币的B轮融资，创下当年国内商业航天领域单轮融资最高纪录。虽然所有人都知道，初创公司的火箭发射不能保证每次都成功，SpaceX也是经历了三次发射失败。但谈及此事，国内一家知名VC机构合伙人依旧难掩失落，“心拔凉拔凉的、碎了一地、碎了一晚上。”这里有一组残酷的数字：自国内商业航天兴起，国内民营火箭公司总计尝试过8次入轨发射，总计3次成功，分别是星际荣耀1次，星河动力2次。总体来看，商业发射总体成功率为37.5%，失败概率还是较高。须知道，每一次发射都花费不菲，从投资机构到背后LP都面临着巨大压力，更不用说创业公司和创始人本身了。相比于商业火箭，反倒是商业卫星公司进展喜人。今年2月27日，“长征八号”遥二运载火箭在海南文昌发射中心执行“一箭22星”拼车发射任务，创造了我国单次发射卫星数量最多的纪录，也交出了商业卫星共享发射的第一张满分答卷。此次任务中，有18颗卫星都来自民营商业卫星企业，5颗卫星由微纳星空研制，2颗由天仪研究院研制，10颗由长光卫星研制，1颗由成都星时代宇航科技有限公司研制。其中，微纳星空的5颗卫星累计发射重量超过800kg，接近长征八号遥二火箭本次发射总重量的一半。更令人惊喜的是，在此次发射的22颗卫星中，商业航天企业天链测控保障了其中19颗卫星的测控任务，创造了中国商业航天企业在单次发射任务中，保障卫星数量最多的纪录。一位常年关注硬科技领域的VC直言，对比国外的商业航天进程，国内才走了不到1/3，还有很长一段路要走，但机遇远大于挑战。因此，我们看到关注商业航天的投资人仍在不断增加。据不完全统计，今年一季度，国内至少有21家商业航天企业宣布获得融资，公开的融资总金额近40亿元。对比2021年，商业航天今年的融资情况呈现复苏态势。其中，最为轰动的融资之一莫过于东方空间的A轮融资。5月，东方空间宣布完成了4亿元人民币A轮融资，由山行资本领投，民银国际、米哈游、星瀚资本、元璟资本、知春资本、元禾原点、凡卓资本等跟投，老股东鼎和高达、天府三江资本等机构持续支持。米哈游和联合创始人蔡浩宇凭借着游戏《原神》赚得盆满钵满，如今也罕见地在投资商业航天。东方空间的掌舵人是一位90后学霸——姚颂。2011年，他考入了清华大学电子工程系，毕业后联合创立了深鉴科技，最终被赛灵思以3亿美金收购。而后，姚颂发起了无限基金SEE Fund，聚焦硬核科技，并于今年初完成了2亿元的首期基金募集。2021年10月，他正式加入东方空间担任CEO。此外，星河动力航天、深蓝航天、天仪研究院、科工火箭、微动时空等商业航天公司完成新一轮融资，覆盖卫星互联网等卫星应用、火箭整体制造、火箭配件或配套设备制造、卫星整体制造及配套设备制造等细分领域。至此，商业航天又涌入了一批新鲜血液。“我相信，这个领域还会有新入局者，不断为行业发展带来新的活力。”一位长期关注商业航天的投资人坦言，接下来，对于大多数商业航天公司而言，最关键的任务就是实现商业闭环——火箭公司要努力发射500公斤以上的运载力的火箭，而卫星公司则需要考虑卫星上天后的商业订单。VC/PE圈流传着一个观点：未知的太空，是人类最后的新大陆。用投资人的话来说，错过“大航海时代”的中国人，决不能再错过即将到来的“大航天时代”了，这才是一场真正走向星辰大海的史诗征途。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":449,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9923724792,"gmtCreate":1670917670217,"gmtModify":1676538459644,"author":{"id":"3578208981838945","authorId":"3578208981838945","name":"211013能量飞车","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e583c75322dd4651672938ebba8683b7","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3578208981838945","idStr":"3578208981838945"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"👍","listText":"👍","text":"👍","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9923724792","repostId":"1129031119","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1129031119","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1670858687,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1129031119?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2022-12-12 23:24","market":"hk","language":"zh","title":"After a 33% surge, can Hong Kong stocks still chase?","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1129031119","media":"懒猫的丰收日","summary":"大涨后，港股的估值修复行情其实已经差不多完成了。","content":"<p><html><head></head><body>Down, down, down,</p><p>Monday, December 12th,<b>The Hang Seng Technology Index fell 4% and the Hang Seng Index fell 2.2%.</b></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/867f9086963978402f2981d477aa9222\" tg-width=\"840\" tg-height=\"470\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Even A-shares also fell, and the three major indexes all closed down by nearly 1%.</p><p>However, looking at the comments, everyone doesn't seem to be worried about the sudden drop:<b>If you dare to fall, I will dare to make up for it. If it doesn't fall, then that's it!</b></p><p>Also, under the resonance of multiple positive factors, Hong Kong stocks collectively soared in November.<b>The Hang Seng Index rose 26.62%, the biggest monthly increase for the Hang Seng Index since 2000.</b></p><p>Even since its establishment in 1964, this increase can rank 8th!</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/16900e6b7d72b1a105d706f0af700b5c\" tg-width=\"302\" tg-height=\"511\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>If the increase in December is also included, the increase of the Hang Seng Index can reach an astonishing 32.52%, leading the major global markets.</p><p>A cloud-piercing arrow, thousands of troops come to meet each other. Under such a skyrocketing rise, naturally everyone should no longer despair of Hong Kong stocks.</p><p>However, another problem followed after the surge:<b>Can Hong Kong stocks still be chased?</b></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/14c677a3b3daf779fdd53f4c10fbb34c\" tg-width=\"568\" tg-height=\"557\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><b>01 Why did it go up?</b></p><p>First, let's talk about why Hong Kong stocks rose, mainly for these four reasons:</p><p><b>(1) The pace of the Fed's rate hike is slowing down</b></p><p>Hong Kong stocks are an offshore market, and the ups and downs are mainly affected by the liquidity of the US dollar.</p><p>Most of the time, when the US dollar falls, Hong Kong stocks rise; When the U.S. dollar rises, Hong Kong stocks fall.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/927fd6994f3915fad342737337dfa553\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"573\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>For example, in the sharp drop in the past few months, the Hong Kong stock market fell as low as 14,600 points, which was 20% lower than the low point in March (18,200). A direct reason is that the Federal Reserve continues to conduct violent rate hike, which has brought global stock markets, including Hong Kong stocks, down.</p><p>Therefore, since November, as expectations for a slowdown in the pace of the Federal Reserve's rate hike have become stronger and stronger, the US Dollar Index has been falling all the way, from 113 to 105, and Hong Kong stocks have also responded, rising from 14,500 points to 20,000 points.</p><p><b>(2) Domestic fundamentals have improved and foreign capital has returned</b></p><p>There is no need to talk about this. After the liberalization, the biggest expectation of the market is \"economic recovery\".</p><p>Driven by this expectation, real estate has risen and consumption has risen.<b>Even foreign capital has begun to bargain-hunting Chinese assets again.</b></p><p>Since November, JPMorgan Chase & Co. has increased its holdings of 18.9 billion Hong Kong stocks, and UBS has increased its holdings of 14.4 billion Hong Kong stocks.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/038d73022fe4af00ea86c6db44a50ef3\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"164\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Compare the data from February 2021 to October this year,</p><p>JPMorgan Chase has reduced its holdings of 37.8 billion Hong Kong stocks, and UBS has reduced its holdings of 27.4 billion Hong Kong stocks...</p><p>It took more than a month to take back half of the chips sold in the past two years.</p><p>Suddenly, like a spring breeze overnight, the foreign capital that once voted with its feet came back ~</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3c8eaad9e0909426242ddc292eefc9b2\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"164\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><b>(3) The inflection point of Internet performance</b></p><p>This is coming to the third quarterly report.<b>After reducing costs and increasing efficiency, the performance of Internet companies has improved significantly.</b></p><p>In the third quarter, Tencent's performance growth rate turned positive, and the performance of Pinduoduo, Kuaishou, and Meituan also exceeded market expectations, so that the agency's summary of the third quarterly report of the Internet was that \"the performance of most companies exceeded expectations, and the turning point of recovery gradually became clear.\"</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b850f0e8794fb2bf97a8fd7e821fcd1a\" tg-width=\"731\" tg-height=\"146\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><b>(4) It fell a lot</b></p><p>This is also a very important reason,</p><p>A few days ago, Lazy Cat also wrote that the biggest decline of the Hang Seng Technology Index in this wave was 75%. Although it has rebounded by 50% now, it still needs to rise by another 164% to return to the highest point.</p><p>The same goes for the Hang Seng Index,</p><p>Before the decline, the Hang Seng Index fell from a high of 31183, and the lowest fell to 14597, a full drop of 53%.</p><p>Although it has rebounded to 19464 now, it is still 60% away from the highest point.</p><p><b>02 Where are you now?</b></p><p><b>(1) Evaluation</b></p><p>Since US dollar liquidity is an important factor in determining the rise and fall of Hong Kong stocks, let's take a look<b>The \"risk premium rate\" of the Hang Seng Index relative to U.S. bonds.</b></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/13d675bd7cadf8708496b0fde21104f8\" tg-width=\"971\" tg-height=\"544\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><b>1) 8.56% is an opportunity point. After several big bottoms, the risk premium rate of the Hang Seng Index relative to U.S. bonds has exceeded 8.56%.</b></p><p><b>2) On March 15 and the end of October this year, the risk premium rate of the Hang Seng Index relative to U.S. bonds also exceeded 9%, which led to the two waves of big market trends that followed.</b></p><p>It is more obvious to look at the percentile map, that is, the two sharp points circled, one is March 15th and the other is the end of October. The percentiles are above 90%, which is absolutely underestimated.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f33db11ba13f59f99b2de11591b25be5\" tg-width=\"967\" tg-height=\"555\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><b>3) As for now, the risk premium rate of the Hang Seng Index relative to U.S. bonds is 6.71%, which is far away from the opportunity point and near the historical average.</b></p><p><b>In terms of valuation, under the current level of U.S. bond yields, the valuation price-performance ratio of the Hang Seng Index is actually not that high.</b></p><p>But it's not so pessimistic,</p><p><b>Compared with itself, looking at the PE valuation, the PE of the Hang Seng Index is only 9.73 times, which is still near the opportunity value.</b></p><p><b>Moreover, the PE percentile of the Hang Seng Index is only 32.64%, and the valuation is lower than 2/3 of history.</b></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c1460473828e11cae91ad86e3cf2c5cf\" tg-width=\"961\" tg-height=\"531\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><b>(2) Position cost line</b></p><p>Let's look at everyone's cost line,</p><p>A few days ago, Lazy Cat conducted a survey: see what everyone's position cost line is.</p><p><b>The position cost line of the Hang Seng Technology Index is around 5,500 points, which is converted into the beginning of this year.</b></p><p><b>Corresponding to the Hang Seng Index, at the beginning of this year, the point of the Hang Seng Index was around 24,000 points, and the Hang Seng Index was still far from a strong selling pressure (the position of capital guarantee).</b></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a17dc85daf23747183ca1ce07cb72593\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"638\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><b>03</b></p><p>Finally, the main points are refined:</p><p>(1) Hong Kong stocks are an offshore market. The fundamentals follow the domestic market, and the liquidity follows the US dollar. Under the dual benefits of the slowdown of the Federal Reserve's rate hike and the recovery of the domestic economy, there has been a retaliatory rise since November.</p><p>At the same time, the continuous outflow of foreign capital has also returned, and half of the chips sold in the past two years have been taken back in more than a month.</p><p><b>(2) After the surge, the valuation repair of Hong Kong stocks has actually been almost completed. From the perspective of risk premium, the \"risk premium rate\" of the Hang Seng Index relative to U.S. bonds has returned to near the historical average level, and the price-performance ratio of stocks and bonds is not so high.</b></p><p><b>(3) However, compared with itself vertically, the valuation level of Hong Kong stocks is still not high, and it is still attractive. And there is still a certain distance from the cost line of most people. There may be a take-profit order at this position, but the selling pressure should not be that big.</b></p><p></body></html></p>","source":"lsy1624331313526","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>After a 33% surge, can Hong Kong stocks still chase?</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nAfter a 33% surge, can Hong Kong stocks still chase?\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">懒猫的丰收日</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2022-12-12 23:24</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><html><head></head><body>Down, down, down,</p><p>Monday, December 12th,<b>The Hang Seng Technology Index fell 4% and the Hang Seng Index fell 2.2%.</b></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/867f9086963978402f2981d477aa9222\" tg-width=\"840\" tg-height=\"470\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Even A-shares also fell, and the three major indexes all closed down by nearly 1%.</p><p>However, looking at the comments, everyone doesn't seem to be worried about the sudden drop:<b>If you dare to fall, I will dare to make up for it. If it doesn't fall, then that's it!</b></p><p>Also, under the resonance of multiple positive factors, Hong Kong stocks collectively soared in November.<b>The Hang Seng Index rose 26.62%, the biggest monthly increase for the Hang Seng Index since 2000.</b></p><p>Even since its establishment in 1964, this increase can rank 8th!</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/16900e6b7d72b1a105d706f0af700b5c\" tg-width=\"302\" tg-height=\"511\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>If the increase in December is also included, the increase of the Hang Seng Index can reach an astonishing 32.52%, leading the major global markets.</p><p>A cloud-piercing arrow, thousands of troops come to meet each other. Under such a skyrocketing rise, naturally everyone should no longer despair of Hong Kong stocks.</p><p>However, another problem followed after the surge:<b>Can Hong Kong stocks still be chased?</b></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/14c677a3b3daf779fdd53f4c10fbb34c\" tg-width=\"568\" tg-height=\"557\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><b>01 Why did it go up?</b></p><p>First, let's talk about why Hong Kong stocks rose, mainly for these four reasons:</p><p><b>(1) The pace of the Fed's rate hike is slowing down</b></p><p>Hong Kong stocks are an offshore market, and the ups and downs are mainly affected by the liquidity of the US dollar.</p><p>Most of the time, when the US dollar falls, Hong Kong stocks rise; When the U.S. dollar rises, Hong Kong stocks fall.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/927fd6994f3915fad342737337dfa553\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"573\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>For example, in the sharp drop in the past few months, the Hong Kong stock market fell as low as 14,600 points, which was 20% lower than the low point in March (18,200). A direct reason is that the Federal Reserve continues to conduct violent rate hike, which has brought global stock markets, including Hong Kong stocks, down.</p><p>Therefore, since November, as expectations for a slowdown in the pace of the Federal Reserve's rate hike have become stronger and stronger, the US Dollar Index has been falling all the way, from 113 to 105, and Hong Kong stocks have also responded, rising from 14,500 points to 20,000 points.</p><p><b>(2) Domestic fundamentals have improved and foreign capital has returned</b></p><p>There is no need to talk about this. After the liberalization, the biggest expectation of the market is \"economic recovery\".</p><p>Driven by this expectation, real estate has risen and consumption has risen.<b>Even foreign capital has begun to bargain-hunting Chinese assets again.</b></p><p>Since November, JPMorgan Chase & Co. has increased its holdings of 18.9 billion Hong Kong stocks, and UBS has increased its holdings of 14.4 billion Hong Kong stocks.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/038d73022fe4af00ea86c6db44a50ef3\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"164\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Compare the data from February 2021 to October this year,</p><p>JPMorgan Chase has reduced its holdings of 37.8 billion Hong Kong stocks, and UBS has reduced its holdings of 27.4 billion Hong Kong stocks...</p><p>It took more than a month to take back half of the chips sold in the past two years.</p><p>Suddenly, like a spring breeze overnight, the foreign capital that once voted with its feet came back ~</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3c8eaad9e0909426242ddc292eefc9b2\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"164\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><b>(3) The inflection point of Internet performance</b></p><p>This is coming to the third quarterly report.<b>After reducing costs and increasing efficiency, the performance of Internet companies has improved significantly.</b></p><p>In the third quarter, Tencent's performance growth rate turned positive, and the performance of Pinduoduo, Kuaishou, and Meituan also exceeded market expectations, so that the agency's summary of the third quarterly report of the Internet was that \"the performance of most companies exceeded expectations, and the turning point of recovery gradually became clear.\"</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b850f0e8794fb2bf97a8fd7e821fcd1a\" tg-width=\"731\" tg-height=\"146\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><b>(4) It fell a lot</b></p><p>This is also a very important reason,</p><p>A few days ago, Lazy Cat also wrote that the biggest decline of the Hang Seng Technology Index in this wave was 75%. Although it has rebounded by 50% now, it still needs to rise by another 164% to return to the highest point.</p><p>The same goes for the Hang Seng Index,</p><p>Before the decline, the Hang Seng Index fell from a high of 31183, and the lowest fell to 14597, a full drop of 53%.</p><p>Although it has rebounded to 19464 now, it is still 60% away from the highest point.</p><p><b>02 Where are you now?</b></p><p><b>(1) Evaluation</b></p><p>Since US dollar liquidity is an important factor in determining the rise and fall of Hong Kong stocks, let's take a look<b>The \"risk premium rate\" of the Hang Seng Index relative to U.S. bonds.</b></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/13d675bd7cadf8708496b0fde21104f8\" tg-width=\"971\" tg-height=\"544\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><b>1) 8.56% is an opportunity point. After several big bottoms, the risk premium rate of the Hang Seng Index relative to U.S. bonds has exceeded 8.56%.</b></p><p><b>2) On March 15 and the end of October this year, the risk premium rate of the Hang Seng Index relative to U.S. bonds also exceeded 9%, which led to the two waves of big market trends that followed.</b></p><p>It is more obvious to look at the percentile map, that is, the two sharp points circled, one is March 15th and the other is the end of October. The percentiles are above 90%, which is absolutely underestimated.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f33db11ba13f59f99b2de11591b25be5\" tg-width=\"967\" tg-height=\"555\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><b>3) As for now, the risk premium rate of the Hang Seng Index relative to U.S. bonds is 6.71%, which is far away from the opportunity point and near the historical average.</b></p><p><b>In terms of valuation, under the current level of U.S. bond yields, the valuation price-performance ratio of the Hang Seng Index is actually not that high.</b></p><p>But it's not so pessimistic,</p><p><b>Compared with itself, looking at the PE valuation, the PE of the Hang Seng Index is only 9.73 times, which is still near the opportunity value.</b></p><p><b>Moreover, the PE percentile of the Hang Seng Index is only 32.64%, and the valuation is lower than 2/3 of history.</b></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c1460473828e11cae91ad86e3cf2c5cf\" tg-width=\"961\" tg-height=\"531\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><b>(2) Position cost line</b></p><p>Let's look at everyone's cost line,</p><p>A few days ago, Lazy Cat conducted a survey: see what everyone's position cost line is.</p><p><b>The position cost line of the Hang Seng Technology Index is around 5,500 points, which is converted into the beginning of this year.</b></p><p><b>Corresponding to the Hang Seng Index, at the beginning of this year, the point of the Hang Seng Index was around 24,000 points, and the Hang Seng Index was still far from a strong selling pressure (the position of capital guarantee).</b></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a17dc85daf23747183ca1ce07cb72593\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"638\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><b>03</b></p><p>Finally, the main points are refined:</p><p>(1) Hong Kong stocks are an offshore market. The fundamentals follow the domestic market, and the liquidity follows the US dollar. Under the dual benefits of the slowdown of the Federal Reserve's rate hike and the recovery of the domestic economy, there has been a retaliatory rise since November.</p><p>At the same time, the continuous outflow of foreign capital has also returned, and half of the chips sold in the past two years have been taken back in more than a month.</p><p><b>(2) After the surge, the valuation repair of Hong Kong stocks has actually been almost completed. From the perspective of risk premium, the \"risk premium rate\" of the Hang Seng Index relative to U.S. bonds has returned to near the historical average level, and the price-performance ratio of stocks and bonds is not so high.</b></p><p><b>(3) However, compared with itself vertically, the valuation level of Hong Kong stocks is still not high, and it is still attractive. And there is still a certain distance from the cost line of most people. There may be a take-profit order at this position, but the selling pressure should not be that big.</b></p><p></body></html></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> source：<a href=\"https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s/js9T0kZGCS1HYCOZkK424A\">懒猫的丰收日</a></p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0cf777090175126e4590c3b8afdfe41e","relate_stocks":{"HSI":"恒生指数"},"source_url":"https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s/js9T0kZGCS1HYCOZkK424A","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1129031119","content_text":"跌了，跌了，12月12日周一，恒生科技指数跌了4%，恒生指数跌了2.2%。连带着A股也跟着颓了，三大指数收盘都跌了将近1%。不过看评论，大家对突如其来的大跌似乎并不担心：你敢跌，我就敢补，如果不跌，那就这样吧！也是，多重利好共振下，11月港股集体暴涨，恒生指数大涨26.62%，这是2000年以来恒指涨幅最大的一个月。即使从1964年成立以来算，这个涨幅也能排第8！如果把12月的涨幅也算进去的话，恒指的涨幅更是能达到惊人的32.52%，领跑全球主要市场。一根穿云箭，千军万马来相见，如此暴涨之下，大家自然不应该对港股再绝望。不过，大涨后另一个问题也随之而来：港股还能追吗？01为什么涨？先说说港股为什么涨，主要是这4个原因：（1）美联储加息节奏放缓港股是一个离岸市场，涨跌也主要受美元流动性的影响。大部分时间里，美元跌，港股就涨；美元涨，港股就跌。比如前几个月的大跌，港股最低跌到14600点，比3月份的低点（18200）还低了20%。一个直接原因就是美联储持续暴力加息，把包括港股在内的全球股市都拉下了水。所以，11月以来，随着美联储加息节奏放缓的预期越来越强烈，美元指数是一路下跌，从113跌到了105，港股也应声而起，从14500点涨回到了20000点。（2）国内基本面好转，外资又回来了这个就不用展开说了，放开后，市场最大的预期就是“经济复苏”。在这个预期带动下，地产涨了，消费涨了，连带着外资也开始重新抄底中国资产了。11月以来，摩根大通（JPMorgan Chase &Co.）净增持了189亿港股，瑞银（UBS）增持了144亿港股。再对比下2021年2月到今年10月的数据，摩根大通累积减持了378亿港股，瑞银累积减持了274亿港股...一个多月就把过去2年抛售筹码的一半接回来了。忽如一夜春风来，曾经用脚投票的外资又回来了~（3）互联网业绩拐点这就要说到三季报了，降本增效后，互联网公司业绩明显改善。三季度，腾讯业绩增速转正，拼多多、快手、美团的业绩也超出了市场预期，以至于机构对互联网三季报的总结是“多数公司业绩超预期，复苏拐点逐步明晰”。（4）跌的多了这也是一个很重要的原因，前几天，懒猫还写过，这一波恒生科技指数最大跌幅是75%，现在虽然反弹了50%+，但回到最高点还需要再涨164%。恒生指数也一样，下跌前，恒生指数是从31183的高点跌下来的，最低跌到14597，足足跌了53%。现在虽然反弹到了19464，但离最高点还有60%的距离。02现在走到哪了？（1）估值既然美元流动性是决定港股涨跌的重要因素，那我们看下恒生指数相对于美债的“风险溢价率”。1）8.56%是一个机会点，几次大的底部，恒生指数相对美债的风险溢价率都超过了8.56%。2）今年3月15日和10月底，恒生指数相对美债的风险溢价率也都超过了9%，这才有了随之而来的两波大行情。看百分位图更明显，就是圈出来的那2个尖点，一个是3月15日，一个是10月底，百分位都在90%以上，绝对的低估。3）至于现在，恒生指数相对美债的风险溢价率是6.71%，已经远离了机会点，历史平均值附近。从估值上来说，在当前美债收益率水平下，恒生指数的估值性价比其实已经没那么高了。但也没那么悲观，和自身对比，看PE估值的话，恒生指数的PE只有9.73倍，还在机会值附近。而且恒指的PE百分位也只有32.64%，估值比历史上2/3的时候都低。（2）持仓成本线再看大家的成本线，前几天懒猫搞过一个调查：看看大家的持仓成本线是多少。恒生科技指数的持仓成本线在5500点附近，换算成时间也就是今年年初的时候。对应到恒生指数上，今年年初，恒生指数的点位在24000点附近，恒指离强抛压（保本出的位置）仍有一定距离。03最后提炼下要点：（1）港股是一个离岸市场，基本面跟着国内走，流动性跟着美元走，在美联储加息节奏放缓和国内经济复苏的双重利好下，11月以来出现了报复性上涨。与此同时，持续流出的外资也回来了，一个多月就把过去2年抛售筹码的一半接回来了。（2）大涨后，港股的估值修复行情其实已经差不多完成了。从风险溢价的角度来看，恒指相对美债的“风险溢价率”已经回到历史平均水平附近，股债性价比没那么高了。（3）但和自身纵向对比，港股的估值水平仍然算不得高，还有吸引力。而且离大部分人的成本线也还有一定距离，这个位置可能有止盈盘，但抛压应该没那么大。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"HSI":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2484,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9923724448,"gmtCreate":1670917627884,"gmtModify":1676538459629,"author":{"id":"3578208981838945","authorId":"3578208981838945","name":"211013能量飞车","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e583c75322dd4651672938ebba8683b7","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3578208981838945","idStr":"3578208981838945"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"👍","listText":"👍","text":"👍","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9923724448","repostId":"1150737270","repostType":2,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2245,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0}],"lives":[]}