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Sinlin

Sinlin

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2022-10-29

$莱佛士医疗(BSL.SI)$go

2022-05-18

👌🏻

There are 5 stages of a bear market. At what stage is the US stock market now?

2023-01-11

$亚马逊(AMZN)$ will see

2022-01-23

wow

Sorry, the original content has been removed

2022-12-03

Sell then

JPMorgan Chase: Raised S&P Global (SPGI.N) price target to $410 from $380.

2022-10-09

$标普500(.SPX)$2600？

2022-07-18

wow

Morgan Stanley: Even if the United States escapes recession, U.S. stocks may continue to fall

2022-07-18

👌🏻

Sorry, the original content has been removed

2022-07-15

nice

Behind the overnight reversal of U.S. stocks: Former officials predict the Fed's "turn" time!

2022-04-06

en

Sorry, the original content has been removed

Go to Tiger App to see more news

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As of Friday, the U.S. stock index was negative for three consecutive days, with the S&P 500 falling to 3,852.36 points.</p><p>Previously, Nomura's model showed that if the S&P 500 closed below 3,933 points, large fund managers may be forced to abandon their previous bullish stance, with a probability of shorting as high as 83%. With the S&P 500 falling more than 2% in a single day, quant funds may need to sell $30 billion in global stock futures.</p><p>The media recently said,<b>The world's largest fund managers are set to dump up to $100 billion in stocks in the final weeks of the year.</b>Behind this, the recent rebound in U.S. stocks has pushed up their valuations relative to other asset classes, forcing fund managers with strict allocation mandates to sell stocks to achieve their goals.</p><p>JPMorgan Chase and institutional-grade financial services platform StoneX Group said bonds could be beneficiaries of stock selling by sovereign wealth funds, pensions and balanced mutual funds, which want to replenish their holdings in fixed-income assets.</p><p>JPMorgan estimates that,<b>By the end of December, sovereign wealth funds are likely to sell about $29 billion in shares, while U.S. defined-income pension plans need to shift up to $70 billion from stocks to bonds to meet their long-term holding targets.</b></p><p>The stalwart of the investment community, pensions and sovereign wealth funds typically rebalance their market exposure every quarter to achieve a 60% equity and 40% bond portfolio.</p><p>StoneX macro strategist Vincent Deluard said:</p><p>\"The recent stock market pullback and bond market rally are in line with rebalancing assumptions.\" \"Investors have had to sell stocks and buy bonds to get back to their targets. It makes sense that this continues until the end of the year.\" He expects that some of the rebalancing has happened this week.</p><p>After the S&P 500 fell about 6% from its November high, analysts expect it to exacerbate an automatic forced sell-off of about $30 billion in quant funds.</p><p>According to calculations by JPMorgan Chase,<b>Japan's $1.6 trillion GPIF, the world's largest pension fund, will have to sell $17 billion of shares to restore its target asset allocation. The $1.3 trillion Norwegian oil fund may shift $12 billion from stocks to bonds.</b></p><p></body></html></p>","source":"live_wallstreetcn","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>In the next few weeks, major global institutions will sell stocks, with a scale of up to 100 billion dollars</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nIn the next few weeks, major global institutions will sell stocks, with a scale of up to 100 billion dollars\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">华尔街见闻</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2022-12-18 13:25</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><html><head></head><body>Author: Wang Mei</p><p>The sell-off in U.S. stocks has snowballed since Powell made it clear on Wednesday that policymakers will continue to aggressively tighten policy at the risk of a recession. As of Friday, the U.S. stock index was negative for three consecutive days, with the S&P 500 falling to 3,852.36 points.</p><p>Previously, Nomura's model showed that if the S&P 500 closed below 3,933 points, large fund managers may be forced to abandon their previous bullish stance, with a probability of shorting as high as 83%. With the S&P 500 falling more than 2% in a single day, quant funds may need to sell $30 billion in global stock futures.</p><p>The media recently said,<b>The world's largest fund managers are set to dump up to $100 billion in stocks in the final weeks of the year.</b>Behind this, the recent rebound in U.S. stocks has pushed up their valuations relative to other asset classes, forcing fund managers with strict allocation mandates to sell stocks to achieve their goals.</p><p>JPMorgan Chase and institutional-grade financial services platform StoneX Group said bonds could be beneficiaries of stock selling by sovereign wealth funds, pensions and balanced mutual funds, which want to replenish their holdings in fixed-income assets.</p><p>JPMorgan estimates that,<b>By the end of December, sovereign wealth funds are likely to sell about $29 billion in shares, while U.S. defined-income pension plans need to shift up to $70 billion from stocks to bonds to meet their long-term holding targets.</b></p><p>The stalwart of the investment community, pensions and sovereign wealth funds typically rebalance their market exposure every quarter to achieve a 60% equity and 40% bond portfolio.</p><p>StoneX macro strategist Vincent Deluard said:</p><p>\"The recent stock market pullback and bond market rally are in line with rebalancing assumptions.\" \"Investors have had to sell stocks and buy bonds to get back to their targets. It makes sense that this continues until the end of the year.\" He expects that some of the rebalancing has happened this week.</p><p>After the S&P 500 fell about 6% from its November high, analysts expect it to exacerbate an automatic forced sell-off of about $30 billion in quant funds.</p><p>According to calculations by JPMorgan Chase,<b>Japan's $1.6 trillion GPIF, the world's largest pension fund, will have to sell $17 billion of shares to restore its target asset allocation. The $1.3 trillion Norwegian oil fund may shift $12 billion from stocks to bonds.</b></p><p></body></html></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> source：<a href=\"https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3677736\">华尔街见闻</a></p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3e90f0093c95026e18203fb8d91b976d","relate_stocks":{".DJI":"道琼斯"},"source_url":"https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3677736","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/cc96873d3d23ee6ac10685520df9c100","article_id":"1174963451","content_text":"作者：王眉自鲍威尔周三明确表示政策制定者将冒着衰退的风险继续积极收紧政策后，美股的抛售就像滚雪球一样加剧，截至周五，美股指三连阴，标普500指数跌至3852.36点。此前野村的模型显示，如果标普500收于3933点以下，大型基金经理可能会被迫放弃此前的看涨姿态，做空的概率高达83%。在标普500单日下跌超过2%的情况下，量化基金可能需要抛售300亿美元的全球股票期货。而媒体最新称，全球最大的基金经理将在今年的最后几周抛售高达1000亿美元的股票。这背后，美股最近的反弹推高了其相对于其他资产类别的估值，迫使有严格配置授权的基金经理出售股票以实现目标。摩根大通和机构级金融服务平台StoneX集团称，债券可能是主权财富基金、养老金和平衡型共同基金抛售股票的受益者，这些基金希望补充其固定收益资产的持仓量。摩根大通估计，到12月结束时，主权财富基金可能会抛售约290亿美元的股票，而美国的固定收益养老金计划需要将至多700亿美元的资金从股票转向债券，以实现其长期持仓目标。作为投资界的中坚力量，养老金和主权财富基金通常每个季度都会重新平衡其市场敞口，以实现60%的股票和40%的债券组合。StoneX宏观策略师 Vincent Deluard表示：“近期股市回调和债市反弹符合再平衡假设。”“投资者不得不卖出股票，购买债券，以回到目标。这种情况持续到今年年底是说得通的。”他预计，部分再平衡已在本周发生。在标普500从11月的高点下跌约6%之后，分析师预计，这将加剧量化基金约300亿美元的自动强制抛售。根据摩根大通的计算，日本1.6万亿美元的GPIF（全球最大的养老基金）将不得不出售170亿美元的股票，以恢复其目标资产配置。规模1.3万亿美元的挪威石油基金可能会将120亿美元从股票转向债券。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{".DJI":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":3286,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9967981900,"gmtCreate":1670249065100,"gmtModify":1676538328938,"author":{"id":"3578273090742274","authorId":"3578273090742274","name":"Sinlin","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e26a5aacb13f0157a96e28fd565c12e5","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3578273090742274","authorIdStr":"3578273090742274"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"OK","listText":"OK","text":"OK","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9967981900","repostId":"1170885543","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1170885543","kind":"news","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"为用户提供金融资讯、行情、数据，旨在帮助投资者理解世界，做投资决策。","home_visible":1,"media_name":"老虎资讯综合","id":"102","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba"},"pubTimestamp":1670244163,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1170885543?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2022-12-05 20:42","market":"fut","language":"zh","title":"Pre-market | The three major stock index futures all fell! A pharmaceutical stock bucked the trend and soared 25%","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1170885543","media":"老虎资讯综合","summary":"12月5日，美股三大股指期货震荡走低，截至发稿，道指期货跌0.47%，纳斯达克100指数期货跌0.43%，标普500指数期货跌0.53%。盘前行情热门中概股盘前走强，哔哩哔哩涨近16%，小鹏汽车涨近1","content":"<p><html><head></head><body>On December 5, the three major U.S. stock index futures fluctuated lower. As of press time, Dow futures fell 0.47%, Nasdaq 100 futures fell 0.43%, and S&P 500 futures fell 0.53%.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3b2161cab0a418516d0bcdd5d22d484a\" tg-width=\"395\" tg-height=\"206\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><b>Premarket Quotes</b></p><p>Popular Chinese concept stocks strengthened before the market,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BILI\">Bilibili</a>Up nearly 16%,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/XPEV\">XPeng vehicles</a>Up nearly 13%,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NIO\">Nio</a>Up more than 6%,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/LI\">Li Auto</a>Up more than 5%,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BABA\">Alibaba</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/PDD\">Pinduoduo</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/JD\">JD.com</a>Up more than 4%;</p><p>China-related ETFs rose sharply before the market,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/CWEB\">Double Long CSI China Internet Equity ETFETF-Direxion</a>Rose more than 9%,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/YINN\">Triple Long FTSE China ETF-Direxion</a>Up more than 5%,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/KWEB\">China Overseas Internet ETF-KraneShares</a>Up more than 4%, $China large-cap stock ETF-<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/EEME\">iShares</a>(FXI) $up nearly 2%;</p><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TSLA\">Tesla</a>It once fell more than 5% to $184.83 before the market. Some media quoted people familiar with the matter as saying on Monday that Tesla plans to cut Model Y production at its Shanghai factory in December by more than 20% compared with November;</p><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/VALN\">Valneva</a>It rose more than 5% before the market, and the company announced that 12 months after vaccination with a single dose of chikungunya vaccine candidate VLA1553, the antibody persistence data was positive;</p><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/IOVA\">Iovance Biotherapeutics</a>It rose more than 25% before the market. According to the data, the stock received a net purchase of 10 million shares by the company's director Rothbaum Wayne P on December 2;</p><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/CS\">Credit Suisse</a>It rose more than 2% before the market. It is rumored that the Saudi Crown Prince will invest about US $500 million in Credit Suisse's investment banking department.</p><p><b>European Market</b></p><p>Most major European stock indexes fell. As of press time, the German DAX30 index fell 0.6%.<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/VUKE.UK\">UK FTSE 100</a>It rose 0.2%, while France's CAC40 fell 0.6%.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8f48e1a91227f3a262079e445d7ad819\" tg-width=\"821\" tg-height=\"291\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><b>crude oil</b></p><p>Crude oil futures continued to rise. As of press time, WTI crude oil rose 2.48% to $81.96 per barrel; Brent crude oil rose 2.45% to $87.67 a barrel.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/216cdee1000faeea06d8756a7f8c3d50\" tg-width=\"902\" tg-height=\"831\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1dd6cf8ef98e1c740d97a8ca688110c8\" tg-width=\"902\" tg-height=\"834\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><b>Gold</b></p><p>Gold futures fell, down 0.12% to $1,807.5 an ounce as of press time.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e789dfa2f7f080dc114fefa80bd8007f\" tg-width=\"902\" tg-height=\"834\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p></body></html></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Pre-market | The three major stock index futures all fell! A pharmaceutical stock bucked the trend and soared 25%</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nPre-market | The three major stock index futures all fell! A pharmaceutical stock bucked the trend and soared 25%\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/102\">\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">老虎资讯综合 </p>\n<p class=\"h-time smaller\">2022-12-05 20:42</p>\n</div>\n</a>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><html><head></head><body>On December 5, the three major U.S. stock index futures fluctuated lower. As of press time, Dow futures fell 0.47%, Nasdaq 100 futures fell 0.43%, and S&P 500 futures fell 0.53%.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3b2161cab0a418516d0bcdd5d22d484a\" tg-width=\"395\" tg-height=\"206\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><b>Premarket Quotes</b></p><p>Popular Chinese concept stocks strengthened before the market,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BILI\">Bilibili</a>Up nearly 16%,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/XPEV\">XPeng vehicles</a>Up nearly 13%,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NIO\">Nio</a>Up more than 6%,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/LI\">Li Auto</a>Up more than 5%,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BABA\">Alibaba</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/PDD\">Pinduoduo</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/JD\">JD.com</a>Up more than 4%;</p><p>China-related ETFs rose sharply before the market,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/CWEB\">Double Long CSI China Internet Equity ETFETF-Direxion</a>Rose more than 9%,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/YINN\">Triple Long FTSE China ETF-Direxion</a>Up more than 5%,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/KWEB\">China Overseas Internet ETF-KraneShares</a>Up more than 4%, $China large-cap stock ETF-<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/EEME\">iShares</a>(FXI) $up nearly 2%;</p><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TSLA\">Tesla</a>It once fell more than 5% to $184.83 before the market. Some media quoted people familiar with the matter as saying on Monday that Tesla plans to cut Model Y production at its Shanghai factory in December by more than 20% compared with November;</p><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/VALN\">Valneva</a>It rose more than 5% before the market, and the company announced that 12 months after vaccination with a single dose of chikungunya vaccine candidate VLA1553, the antibody persistence data was positive;</p><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/IOVA\">Iovance Biotherapeutics</a>It rose more than 25% before the market. According to the data, the stock received a net purchase of 10 million shares by the company's director Rothbaum Wayne P on December 2;</p><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/CS\">Credit Suisse</a>It rose more than 2% before the market. It is rumored that the Saudi Crown Prince will invest about US $500 million in Credit Suisse's investment banking department.</p><p><b>European Market</b></p><p>Most major European stock indexes fell. As of press time, the German DAX30 index fell 0.6%.<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/VUKE.UK\">UK FTSE 100</a>It rose 0.2%, while France's CAC40 fell 0.6%.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8f48e1a91227f3a262079e445d7ad819\" tg-width=\"821\" tg-height=\"291\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><b>crude oil</b></p><p>Crude oil futures continued to rise. As of press time, WTI crude oil rose 2.48% to $81.96 per barrel; Brent crude oil rose 2.45% to $87.67 a barrel.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/216cdee1000faeea06d8756a7f8c3d50\" tg-width=\"902\" tg-height=\"831\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1dd6cf8ef98e1c740d97a8ca688110c8\" tg-width=\"902\" tg-height=\"834\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><b>Gold</b></p><p>Gold futures fell, down 0.12% to $1,807.5 an ounce as of press time.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e789dfa2f7f080dc114fefa80bd8007f\" tg-width=\"902\" tg-height=\"834\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p></body></html></p>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ed4ee39e6b0f45214393093d70ba81a8","relate_stocks":{".SPX":"S&P 500 Index",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite",".DJI":"道琼斯"},"source_url":"","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1170885543","content_text":"12月5日，美股三大股指期货震荡走低，截至发稿，道指期货跌0.47%，纳斯达克100指数期货跌0.43%，标普500指数期货跌0.53%。盘前行情热门中概股盘前走强，哔哩哔哩涨近16%，小鹏汽车涨近13%，蔚来涨超6%，理想汽车涨超5%，阿里巴巴、拼多多、京东涨超4%；中国相关ETF盘前大涨，两倍做多沪深中国互联网股票ETFETF-Direxion涨超9%，三倍做多富时中国ETF-Direxion涨超5%，中国海外互联网ETF-KraneShares涨超4%，$中国大盘股ETF-iShares(FXI)$涨近2%；特斯拉盘前一度跌超5%报184.83美元，有媒体援引知情人士在周一表示，特斯拉计划将其上海工厂12月的Model Y产量较11月削减逾20%；Valneva盘前涨超5%，公司宣布在接种单剂基孔肯雅热候选疫苗VLA1553 12个月后，抗体持久性数据呈阳性；Iovance Biotherapeutics盘前涨超25%，资料显示，该股在12月2日获公司董事Rothbaum Wayne P净买入1000万股；瑞士信贷盘前涨超2%，传沙特王储将向瑞信投行部门投资约5亿美元。欧洲市场欧洲主要股指多数走低，截至发稿，德国DAX30指数跌0.6%，英国富时100涨0.2%，法国CAC40跌0.6%。原油原油期货持续走高，截止发稿，WTI原油涨2.48%，报81.96美元/桶；布伦特原油涨2.45%，报87.67美元/桶。黄金黄金期货走低，截止发稿，跌0.12%，报1807.5美元/盎司。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"YMmain":0.9,".IXIC":0.9,".DJI":0.9,".SPX":0.9,"NQmain":0.9,"ESmain":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2910,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9964077408,"gmtCreate":1670042610604,"gmtModify":1676538294664,"author":{"id":"3578273090742274","authorId":"3578273090742274","name":"Sinlin","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e26a5aacb13f0157a96e28fd565c12e5","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3578273090742274","authorIdStr":"3578273090742274"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Sell then","listText":"Sell then","text":"Sell 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12:44","market":"hk","language":"zh","title":"Who understands the helplessness of Hong Kong stocks?","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1171146521","media":"格隆汇投资学苑","summary":"十年港股两茫茫，杀价值，灭投机。千股阴跌，无处话凄凉。纵使相逢应不识，问安好，道珍重。牛市幽梦难还乡，睡不着，吃不香。望盘无言，惟有泪千行。料得年年新低处，明月夜，又平仓。是什么，把善良单纯的股民，硬","content":"<p><html><head></head><body><b>In the past ten years, Hong Kong stocks have been at a loss, killing value and speculation. Thousands of shares are falling, and there is nowhere to say desolation. Even if you don't know each other when you meet, ask hello and cherish it. The dream of the bull market is difficult to return home, I can't sleep, and I can't eat well. Looking at the plate without words, only a thousand lines of tears. It is expected that it will reach a new low every year, and on a bright moonlit night, the position will be closed again.</b></p><p>What forced the kind and simple stockholders into sad and heartbroken poets?</p><p>It is the Hong Kong stock market, and it is the bleak market that has been falling endlessly since the beginning of last year.</p><p>If the negative decline of A-shares during this period has made you suffer and depressed, then please take a look at the Hong Kong stock market, and take a look at the tragic situation that has fallen from last year to now. Maybe you won't feel so uncomfortable.</p><p>Looking back at the trend of the Hong Kong stock market in the past two years, even many professional institutions were unexpected.</p><p><b>We did the same before. We originally thought that after the regulatory attitude warmed up and the epidemic subsided, the darkest moment of Hong Kong stocks could pass, but we didn't expect that Hong Kong stocks, caught between the epidemic, the economy, and changes in Sino-US relations, were far more helpless than everyone thought.</b></p><p>All kinds of situations in reality have exceeded the original expectations, and have not changed, which eventually leads to hopes and disappointments again and again.</p><p>The Hong Kong stock market is really difficult! Compared with it, A shares are not worthy of carrying shoes.</p><p><b>01. Reflection, what happened to Hong Kong stocks?</b></p><p>Looking back on this year, Hong Kong stocks have fallen all the way from their highs, and the decline has exceeded 20%. What's worse is that it started to fall at the beginning of last year. If it fell from last year's high point, the decline even exceeded 40%, and Hang Seng Technology stocks even fell by almost 70%.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/32d6973cb9e4394c500a382423c7d34c\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"687\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/00700\">Tencent</a>From their respective highest points to the present, Ali's respective market values have evaporated by 4 trillion Hong Kong dollars, and Meituan has evaporated by 1.8 trillion Hong Kong dollars.<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/JD\">JD.com</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BIDU\">Baidu</a>And other giants are also evaporating hundreds of billions and hundreds of billions.</p><p>In addition, the decline of other industries such as real estate, medical care, and education is even worse. The specific amount of evaporation is difficult for people to dismantle.</p><p><b>These were the most proud and sought after industries in those days, but now things have changed, and the difference between clouds and mud is really shocking.</b></p><p>These are the times \"<b>A century of great changes</b>\"The most remarkable witness.</p><p>Reflecting,<b>The most important thing is the depth of the impact of this great change and the time span of the change. Everyone's understanding is indeed not deep enough.</b></p><p>Not only us, but also look at those fund bosses who manage tens of billions. Some of them are veterans who have been in the stock market for more than ten years, and their losses are not much better than those of ordinary investors. Those star managers who have seized the dividends of a certain industry in recent years, the performance of the funds they manage has even fallen worse than that of retail investors, and the Christians are clamoring for them to do things, such as the performance of some A-share fund managers below.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e0a751af4ae494059dc76fd6efa1ab66\" tg-width=\"861\" tg-height=\"866\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Therefore, in the chess game, it is really difficult to deeply understand the changes outside the game. Human nature is like this, regardless of high or low.</p><p><b>If the development and changes of the Hong Kong stock market over the years and the analysis of the reasons behind it are written into a book and used as a textbook for universities to study, I believe it will never fall in price.</b></p><p>But reflection is necessary. Let's briefly talk about the core:</p><p><b>Reflection one,</b>Under the changes in geopolitics, economic background, policy supervision, etc. of Hong Kong stocks, as well as the special financial market status of Hong Kong stocks and the industry structure of listed companies, their operating logic is definitely not thoroughly explained by any simple theory.</p><p>What determines the lowest operating logic of a financial market is only the country behind which it depends and the economic development and changes of the country, not some industry sectors, let alone some individual stocks.</p><p>The Hong Kong stock market itself has too small a voice, and now it is completely not due to itself. The impact of the macro background of changes in Sino-US relations on Hong Kong stocks is one of the most critical reasons. It is really difficult to interpret and analyze in depth here., everyone understands.</p><p>Anyway, we are too immersed in the inertia of past thinking.</p><p><b>Reflection 2,</b>Another direct factor behind the financial cycle is the performance expectation and valuation logic of listed companies, which is not only related to the economic cycle, but also related to policy changes. Now that our country is in the stage of economic transformation, the best stage of the incremental dividend of the Internet has long passed, and the real estate industry is also gone with the saturation of urbanization and the arrival of an aging society. The huge bubble accumulated in the crazy feast of medical care in 2019 is actually in the digestive stage.</p><p><b>The Internet, real estate, and education have been analyzed too much to talk about. Let's talk about big medical care. There were too many problems in this sector in the past. Although it will not be liquidated now, it is real to squeeze bubbles and verify performance.</b></p><p>The most obvious thing is that a large amount of capital acquires medical pipeline business or assets are reintegrated and packaged into companies that meet the listing standards of Hong Kong stocks, and then go public, advocating future expectations and stimulating a surge in bubbles. Who can believe that all kinds of intractable diseases such as cancer, rare diseases, and Alzheimer's disease, which are insurmountable in front of human beings, have been carried out in the laboratory for decades without any achievements, but three or two years after being acquired by capital, \"continuous breakthroughs are made, and the product is expected to be launched\"?</p><p>Look at those companies. How many of them started to cash out and run away or declared the failure of pipeline research and development after the period of lifting the ban on listing, and how many of them ended up in chicken feathers?</p><p>By saying so much, I just want to explain that the reason why these sectors have fallen so much, in addition to the logical changes caused by the change of Sino-US relations, has a lot to do with the need to digest the previous excessive valuation bubble. Of course, there are also expectations for their business in the future. The impact of further contraction leading to valuation contraction.</p><p><b>Reflection three,</b>Investment in the stock market has always been anti-human, so don't go against the trend.</p><p>During this period of time, we have noticed that many well-known large institutions have traveled to disclose their holdings reduction.</p><p>For example, in August, Warren Buffett began to sell off the 14-year-old stocks<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/01211\">BYD shares</a>, earning tens of billions of Hong Kong dollars; At the same time, SoftBank also significantly reduced its holdings again<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BABA\">Alibaba</a>Shares, earning tens of billions of dollars; Earlier, Naspers Group, the major shareholder of Tencent, also reduced its holdings of Tencent shares by a large amount. This is its third major reduction since 2018.</p><p>In fact, the reduction of giants' holdings does not mean that these target companies have no investment value from now on, but investment has always been for profit. The experience and level of these giants, their understanding of the macro situation, the industry, and the company is definitely deeper than that of us ordinary people.</p><p>Therefore, they gave us a good signal to reduce our holdings, at least in the short term, we don't have enough confidence in the market.<b>One boss may not be able to explain the problem. Several bosses are doing the same thing at the same time, and the signal strength is obvious enough.</b></p><p>If we could understand this signal earlier, and make corresponding evasive operations, and not go against the trend, maybe we wouldn't be so deep now.</p><p><b>02. What do you think of the stock market next?</b></p><p>At present, the increasingly complex and changeable situation makes any theory and prediction model useless.</p><p>We are still optimistic about the future of A-share and Hong Kong stock markets in the long run, but we don't seem to have much confidence in the short term.</p><p>Judging from the various pressures currently faced by Hong Kong stocks, we have not seen any significant changes, especially the relationship between the two countries. We cannot predict what the outcome will be, or even the energy crisis caused by the situation between Russia and Ukraine and the impact on the global economy. It is impossible to predict how long it will last, but it can be predicted that the probability of the stock market continuing to fluctuate weakly for a period of time in the future is quite high.</p><p>At the same time, the shareholding reduction plans of the institutional bosses mentioned above have just started, and it will take quite some time to reduce their holdings to the set target, which also means that they will still form a sustained selling pressure on the market.</p><p>In addition, in order to get rid of the extremely high inflation crisis, the world is still in a vigorous rate hike, which is another major incentive for the decline of Hong Kong stocks.</p><p>The reason why Hong Kong stocks fell so much today is that the U.S. stock market is about to usher in an interest rate meeting tonight, and the market has a great consensus on increasing 100 basis points. This is overwhelming pressure, so the market fell first.</p><p>The United States has now made it very clear that inflation will not fall, rate hike will not stop, and the current inflation is still 8%, which is still huge with the target of less than 3%. Therefore, there may be several rate hike in the future, which also means that the pressure on Hong Kong stocks will exist for a long time..</p><p>Therefore, the pressure that Hong Kong stocks are facing now is really numerous and helpless.</p><p>Fortunately, among the major weighted sectors of Hong Kong stocks, most of the valuations from within the industry have already met the current performance level. Many leaders have already fallen below the average valuation level of the industry. Without these external troubles, they are There is a good attraction.</p><p>Now we see that the country is pouring a lot of policy dividends, and various policies to stabilize the economy are emerging in an endless stream. Since the third quarter, more and more achievements have been made. Especially in non-real estate traditional infrastructure, various new infrastructure, hard technology industries, etc.</p><p><b>Objectively speaking, under so many internal and external pressures, China's economy can still maintain a good growth rate, which is stable enough. Although the stock market has fallen a lot, the macroeconomic operation can't be said to be bad. We should treat the financial and economic aspects objectively and rationally, and there is no need to completely deny the whole thing when we see some negative ones.</b></p><p>Now, at the individual stock level, many giant companies have launched repurchase plans. Since Tencent announced its repurchase plan this year, hundreds of millions of repurchases every day are still in progress. At the same time, there are AIA, Xiaomi,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/601633\">Great Wall Motors</a>Many companies have announced repurchase plans, and the repurchase will end with live ammunition.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/13de920b326e80ba519d6465504e6a83\" tg-width=\"461\" tg-height=\"759\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>At least, the enterprise itself thinks it is underestimated.</p><p>In fact, in the long run, domestic policies do have a warming trend in the face of regulatory attitudes such as Internet platforms, education, and real estate. Relying on their tracks, they are just needed in the future, especially the Internet, which is an indispensable infrastructure in the future digital era. Facilities, there is still huge room for development.</p><p><b>Although it has fallen so badly now, but from a long-term perspective of five or even more than ten years, as long as these companies do not fall, there is still a lot of room for growth in the future.</b></p><p>However, now everyone lacks long-term patience and sufficient confidence.</p><p>On the other hand, no matter how bad the market is, there will be structural market conditions. At present, there are still some industries that have benefited from the current macro changes, such as traditional energy, materials, grain, high-end manufacturing, various supply chain services and other fields, which can still have good development dividends.</p><p>If you don't pay attention to those industries in the whirlpool, these sectors can be regarded as good safe havens.</p><p><b>03. Conclusion</b></p><p>Although the current environment of Hong Kong stocks will still be under greater pressure even for some time to come.</p><p>Some analysts believe that under the influence of rate hike, inflation in the United States has begun to slow down or even fall. If the current pace of rate hike continues, the inflation rate may almost be reduced to the target position by the first half of next year, provided that it can be maintained. The U.S. and even the global economy will not collapse.</p><p>But if rate hike leads to economic collapse, it will definitely put the cart before the horse of the goal, which is by no means what rate hike wants. So now everyone is so full of rate hike expectations. Perhaps if the situation is better than expected by then, it is not ruled out that Hong Kong stocks, including Hong Kong stocks, will usher in a rebound.</p><p>In addition, fundamentally, we still feel that it is more ideal and objective to use \"pain\" to objectively evaluate the current Hong Kong stock market. The reason is very simple. The financial market is related to the national destiny. If the national destiny goes up, the stock market will inevitably go up in the long run. However, in the short term, it will be affected by various factors and fluctuate greatly, which is the so-called crisis that has happened before.</p><p>As the most important window for China's opening to the outside world, Hong Kong's financial market has extremely important economic value and strategic significance. Therefore, although Hong Kong stocks are indeed in constant pain now, we should not lose hope in it. Maybe a little more, and by next year, when the Fed enters the end of a rate hike, things will get better.</p><p>I hope that the Hong Kong stock market will be able to keep the clouds open and regain its glory.</p><p></body></html></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Who understands the helplessness of Hong Kong stocks?</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nWho understands the helplessness of Hong Kong stocks?\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/3\">\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/5d7d04eb4f16b0013ed2c39f71b84b6c);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">格隆汇投资学苑 </p>\n<p class=\"h-time smaller\">2022-09-22 12:44</p>\n</div>\n</a>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><html><head></head><body><b>In the past ten years, Hong Kong stocks have been at a loss, killing value and speculation. Thousands of shares are falling, and there is nowhere to say desolation. Even if you don't know each other when you meet, ask hello and cherish it. The dream of the bull market is difficult to return home, I can't sleep, and I can't eat well. Looking at the plate without words, only a thousand lines of tears. It is expected that it will reach a new low every year, and on a bright moonlit night, the position will be closed again.</b></p><p>What forced the kind and simple stockholders into sad and heartbroken poets?</p><p>It is the Hong Kong stock market, and it is the bleak market that has been falling endlessly since the beginning of last year.</p><p>If the negative decline of A-shares during this period has made you suffer and depressed, then please take a look at the Hong Kong stock market, and take a look at the tragic situation that has fallen from last year to now. Maybe you won't feel so uncomfortable.</p><p>Looking back at the trend of the Hong Kong stock market in the past two years, even many professional institutions were unexpected.</p><p><b>We did the same before. We originally thought that after the regulatory attitude warmed up and the epidemic subsided, the darkest moment of Hong Kong stocks could pass, but we didn't expect that Hong Kong stocks, caught between the epidemic, the economy, and changes in Sino-US relations, were far more helpless than everyone thought.</b></p><p>All kinds of situations in reality have exceeded the original expectations, and have not changed, which eventually leads to hopes and disappointments again and again.</p><p>The Hong Kong stock market is really difficult! Compared with it, A shares are not worthy of carrying shoes.</p><p><b>01. Reflection, what happened to Hong Kong stocks?</b></p><p>Looking back on this year, Hong Kong stocks have fallen all the way from their highs, and the decline has exceeded 20%. What's worse is that it started to fall at the beginning of last year. If it fell from last year's high point, the decline even exceeded 40%, and Hang Seng Technology stocks even fell by almost 70%.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/32d6973cb9e4394c500a382423c7d34c\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"687\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/00700\">Tencent</a>From their respective highest points to the present, Ali's respective market values have evaporated by 4 trillion Hong Kong dollars, and Meituan has evaporated by 1.8 trillion Hong Kong dollars.<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/JD\">JD.com</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BIDU\">Baidu</a>And other giants are also evaporating hundreds of billions and hundreds of billions.</p><p>In addition, the decline of other industries such as real estate, medical care, and education is even worse. The specific amount of evaporation is difficult for people to dismantle.</p><p><b>These were the most proud and sought after industries in those days, but now things have changed, and the difference between clouds and mud is really shocking.</b></p><p>These are the times \"<b>A century of great changes</b>\"The most remarkable witness.</p><p>Reflecting,<b>The most important thing is the depth of the impact of this great change and the time span of the change. Everyone's understanding is indeed not deep enough.</b></p><p>Not only us, but also look at those fund bosses who manage tens of billions. Some of them are veterans who have been in the stock market for more than ten years, and their losses are not much better than those of ordinary investors. Those star managers who have seized the dividends of a certain industry in recent years, the performance of the funds they manage has even fallen worse than that of retail investors, and the Christians are clamoring for them to do things, such as the performance of some A-share fund managers below.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e0a751af4ae494059dc76fd6efa1ab66\" tg-width=\"861\" tg-height=\"866\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Therefore, in the chess game, it is really difficult to deeply understand the changes outside the game. Human nature is like this, regardless of high or low.</p><p><b>If the development and changes of the Hong Kong stock market over the years and the analysis of the reasons behind it are written into a book and used as a textbook for universities to study, I believe it will never fall in price.</b></p><p>But reflection is necessary. Let's briefly talk about the core:</p><p><b>Reflection one,</b>Under the changes in geopolitics, economic background, policy supervision, etc. of Hong Kong stocks, as well as the special financial market status of Hong Kong stocks and the industry structure of listed companies, their operating logic is definitely not thoroughly explained by any simple theory.</p><p>What determines the lowest operating logic of a financial market is only the country behind which it depends and the economic development and changes of the country, not some industry sectors, let alone some individual stocks.</p><p>The Hong Kong stock market itself has too small a voice, and now it is completely not due to itself. The impact of the macro background of changes in Sino-US relations on Hong Kong stocks is one of the most critical reasons. It is really difficult to interpret and analyze in depth here., everyone understands.</p><p>Anyway, we are too immersed in the inertia of past thinking.</p><p><b>Reflection 2,</b>Another direct factor behind the financial cycle is the performance expectation and valuation logic of listed companies, which is not only related to the economic cycle, but also related to policy changes. Now that our country is in the stage of economic transformation, the best stage of the incremental dividend of the Internet has long passed, and the real estate industry is also gone with the saturation of urbanization and the arrival of an aging society. The huge bubble accumulated in the crazy feast of medical care in 2019 is actually in the digestive stage.</p><p><b>The Internet, real estate, and education have been analyzed too much to talk about. Let's talk about big medical care. There were too many problems in this sector in the past. Although it will not be liquidated now, it is real to squeeze bubbles and verify performance.</b></p><p>The most obvious thing is that a large amount of capital acquires medical pipeline business or assets are reintegrated and packaged into companies that meet the listing standards of Hong Kong stocks, and then go public, advocating future expectations and stimulating a surge in bubbles. Who can believe that all kinds of intractable diseases such as cancer, rare diseases, and Alzheimer's disease, which are insurmountable in front of human beings, have been carried out in the laboratory for decades without any achievements, but three or two years after being acquired by capital, \"continuous breakthroughs are made, and the product is expected to be launched\"?</p><p>Look at those companies. How many of them started to cash out and run away or declared the failure of pipeline research and development after the period of lifting the ban on listing, and how many of them ended up in chicken feathers?</p><p>By saying so much, I just want to explain that the reason why these sectors have fallen so much, in addition to the logical changes caused by the change of Sino-US relations, has a lot to do with the need to digest the previous excessive valuation bubble. Of course, there are also expectations for their business in the future. The impact of further contraction leading to valuation contraction.</p><p><b>Reflection three,</b>Investment in the stock market has always been anti-human, so don't go against the trend.</p><p>During this period of time, we have noticed that many well-known large institutions have traveled to disclose their holdings reduction.</p><p>For example, in August, Warren Buffett began to sell off the 14-year-old stocks<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/01211\">BYD shares</a>, earning tens of billions of Hong Kong dollars; At the same time, SoftBank also significantly reduced its holdings again<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BABA\">Alibaba</a>Shares, earning tens of billions of dollars; Earlier, Naspers Group, the major shareholder of Tencent, also reduced its holdings of Tencent shares by a large amount. This is its third major reduction since 2018.</p><p>In fact, the reduction of giants' holdings does not mean that these target companies have no investment value from now on, but investment has always been for profit. The experience and level of these giants, their understanding of the macro situation, the industry, and the company is definitely deeper than that of us ordinary people.</p><p>Therefore, they gave us a good signal to reduce our holdings, at least in the short term, we don't have enough confidence in the market.<b>One boss may not be able to explain the problem. Several bosses are doing the same thing at the same time, and the signal strength is obvious enough.</b></p><p>If we could understand this signal earlier, and make corresponding evasive operations, and not go against the trend, maybe we wouldn't be so deep now.</p><p><b>02. What do you think of the stock market next?</b></p><p>At present, the increasingly complex and changeable situation makes any theory and prediction model useless.</p><p>We are still optimistic about the future of A-share and Hong Kong stock markets in the long run, but we don't seem to have much confidence in the short term.</p><p>Judging from the various pressures currently faced by Hong Kong stocks, we have not seen any significant changes, especially the relationship between the two countries. We cannot predict what the outcome will be, or even the energy crisis caused by the situation between Russia and Ukraine and the impact on the global economy. It is impossible to predict how long it will last, but it can be predicted that the probability of the stock market continuing to fluctuate weakly for a period of time in the future is quite high.</p><p>At the same time, the shareholding reduction plans of the institutional bosses mentioned above have just started, and it will take quite some time to reduce their holdings to the set target, which also means that they will still form a sustained selling pressure on the market.</p><p>In addition, in order to get rid of the extremely high inflation crisis, the world is still in a vigorous rate hike, which is another major incentive for the decline of Hong Kong stocks.</p><p>The reason why Hong Kong stocks fell so much today is that the U.S. stock market is about to usher in an interest rate meeting tonight, and the market has a great consensus on increasing 100 basis points. This is overwhelming pressure, so the market fell first.</p><p>The United States has now made it very clear that inflation will not fall, rate hike will not stop, and the current inflation is still 8%, which is still huge with the target of less than 3%. Therefore, there may be several rate hike in the future, which also means that the pressure on Hong Kong stocks will exist for a long time..</p><p>Therefore, the pressure that Hong Kong stocks are facing now is really numerous and helpless.</p><p>Fortunately, among the major weighted sectors of Hong Kong stocks, most of the valuations from within the industry have already met the current performance level. Many leaders have already fallen below the average valuation level of the industry. Without these external troubles, they are There is a good attraction.</p><p>Now we see that the country is pouring a lot of policy dividends, and various policies to stabilize the economy are emerging in an endless stream. Since the third quarter, more and more achievements have been made. Especially in non-real estate traditional infrastructure, various new infrastructure, hard technology industries, etc.</p><p><b>Objectively speaking, under so many internal and external pressures, China's economy can still maintain a good growth rate, which is stable enough. Although the stock market has fallen a lot, the macroeconomic operation can't be said to be bad. We should treat the financial and economic aspects objectively and rationally, and there is no need to completely deny the whole thing when we see some negative ones.</b></p><p>Now, at the individual stock level, many giant companies have launched repurchase plans. Since Tencent announced its repurchase plan this year, hundreds of millions of repurchases every day are still in progress. At the same time, there are AIA, Xiaomi,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/601633\">Great Wall Motors</a>Many companies have announced repurchase plans, and the repurchase will end with live ammunition.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/13de920b326e80ba519d6465504e6a83\" tg-width=\"461\" tg-height=\"759\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>At least, the enterprise itself thinks it is underestimated.</p><p>In fact, in the long run, domestic policies do have a warming trend in the face of regulatory attitudes such as Internet platforms, education, and real estate. Relying on their tracks, they are just needed in the future, especially the Internet, which is an indispensable infrastructure in the future digital era. Facilities, there is still huge room for development.</p><p><b>Although it has fallen so badly now, but from a long-term perspective of five or even more than ten years, as long as these companies do not fall, there is still a lot of room for growth in the future.</b></p><p>However, now everyone lacks long-term patience and sufficient confidence.</p><p>On the other hand, no matter how bad the market is, there will be structural market conditions. At present, there are still some industries that have benefited from the current macro changes, such as traditional energy, materials, grain, high-end manufacturing, various supply chain services and other fields, which can still have good development dividends.</p><p>If you don't pay attention to those industries in the whirlpool, these sectors can be regarded as good safe havens.</p><p><b>03. Conclusion</b></p><p>Although the current environment of Hong Kong stocks will still be under greater pressure even for some time to come.</p><p>Some analysts believe that under the influence of rate hike, inflation in the United States has begun to slow down or even fall. If the current pace of rate hike continues, the inflation rate may almost be reduced to the target position by the first half of next year, provided that it can be maintained. The U.S. and even the global economy will not collapse.</p><p>But if rate hike leads to economic collapse, it will definitely put the cart before the horse of the goal, which is by no means what rate hike wants. So now everyone is so full of rate hike expectations. Perhaps if the situation is better than expected by then, it is not ruled out that Hong Kong stocks, including Hong Kong stocks, will usher in a rebound.</p><p>In addition, fundamentally, we still feel that it is more ideal and objective to use \"pain\" to objectively evaluate the current Hong Kong stock market. The reason is very simple. The financial market is related to the national destiny. If the national destiny goes up, the stock market will inevitably go up in the long run. However, in the short term, it will be affected by various factors and fluctuate greatly, which is the so-called crisis that has happened before.</p><p>As the most important window for China's opening to the outside world, Hong Kong's financial market has extremely important economic value and strategic significance. Therefore, although Hong Kong stocks are indeed in constant pain now, we should not lose hope in it. Maybe a little more, and by next year, when the Fed enters the end of a rate hike, things will get better.</p><p>I hope that the Hong Kong stock market will be able to keep the clouds open and regain its glory.</p><p></body></html></p>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3e1ae3d0f75bebef8011736e9031acae","relate_stocks":{"HSTECH":"恒生科技指数","HSI":"恒生指数"},"source_url":"","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1171146521","content_text":"十年港股两茫茫，杀价值，灭投机。千股阴跌，无处话凄凉。纵使相逢应不识，问安好，道珍重。牛市幽梦难还乡，睡不着，吃不香。望盘无言，惟有泪千行。料得年年新低处，明月夜，又平仓。是什么，把善良单纯的股民，硬生生逼成了愁绪万千、肝肠寸断的诗人骚客？是港股，是那从去年初到如今一直跌跌不休的惨淡行情。如果说这段时间A股的阴跌让你煎熬郁闷，那么请看一眼港股吧，看一眼从去年跌到现在已奄奄一息的惨状，或许你就不觉得那么难受了。回顾这两年港股市场的走势，即使是很多专业的机构都始料未及。我们此前也是，原想着监管态度转暖及疫情消退之后，港股最至暗的时刻就可以过去，却没想到，夹在疫情与经济、中美关系变局中间的港股，远比大家想象的无奈。现实的种种形势都超过了原先的预期，并且一直未见改观，最终导致一次次希望，又一次次失望。港股市场，实在太难了！A股跟它相比，提鞋都不配。01、反思，港股究竟怎么了？回顾今年来港股从高点一路下来，跌幅已超过20%。更惨的是，它是从去年初就开始下跌，如果从去年的高点下来，跌幅甚至超过了40%，恒生科技股甚至跌了差不多70%。腾讯、阿里从各自最高点到现在，各自市值蒸发了4万亿港元，美团蒸发了1.8万亿，京东、百度及其他巨头也都是几千亿、几千亿的蒸发。还有地产、医疗、教育等其他行业的跌幅更是一个比一个惨，具体的蒸发量，人艰不拆了。这些都是当年最值得骄傲、最被市场追捧的行业，如今却已物是人非，云泥之别，真的非常让人震撼。这些是时代“百年大变局”最显著的见证。反思起来，最主要的是对这个大变局所带来的影响深度和转变的时间跨度，大家的理解确实都不够深刻。不止我们，看看那些管理几十几百亿的基金大佬，有些还是在股市里熬炼十数年的老将，亏损的幅度并不比普通股民好多少。那些近几年抓住某个行业红利横空出世的明星经理，他们所管理的基金业绩甚至跌得比散户还惨，就差基民嚷嚷叫他们做事了，比如下面的一些A股基金经理的表现。所以身在棋局中，真的很难深刻认清局外变化，人性如此，不分高低贵贱。如果把这些年港股市场发展变化及背后原因分析写成一部书，给大学里当教材学习，相信都绝对不掉价。但反思是很必要的，简单讲一下核心的吧：反思一，港股在地缘政治、经济背景、政策监管等变化，以及港股本身特殊的金融市场地位和上市公司行业结构下，其运行逻辑绝对不是任何简单理论能解释得透。决定一个金融市场最底层运行逻辑的，只有它背后所依存的国家以及国家的经济发展变化，不是其中的某些行业板块，更不是部分个股。港股市场自身的话语权太小了，现在已经完全不是由其自身，中美关系变化的宏观大背景对港股带来的影响，这是最最关键的原因之一，这里真不好深入解读分析，大家懂的都懂。反正是我们太过于沉浸在过去的思维惯性上了。反思二，金融周期背后的另一个直接因素是上市公司的业绩预期与估值逻辑，这不仅关乎经济周期，还关乎政策变化。现在我国的处在经济转型的阶段，互联网的增量红利最好的阶段早就过去了，地产业也随着城镇化饱和和老龄化社会到来也高光不在，而医疗这些在2019年的疯狂盛宴中积累下来的巨大泡沫，到现在其实都是在消化阶段。互联网、地产、教育这些被分析太多懒得说了，再说下大医疗这块。这板块过去有太多的问题了，现在虽说不至于清算，但挤泡沫和业绩验证是实在的。最明显的，大量资本收购医疗管线业务或者资产再整合打包成符合港股上市标准的公司，然后上市，鼓吹未来预期，刺激泡沫激增。谁敢相信，那些横亘在人类面前难以逾越的癌症、稀罕病、阿尔兹海默症等各种疑难杂症在实验室里搞了几十年都没攻坚成果，却在被资本收购后三两年就“不断获得突破，产品上市有望”了？看看那些公司，有多少是上市解禁期过后，就开始套现跑路或者宣告管线研发失败的案例，有多少股价最后一地鸡毛的？说那么多，就是想说明，这些板块之所以跌那么多，除了中美关系转变导致的逻辑变化外，与本身之前过高的估值泡沫需要消化有很大关系，当然也有未来预期它们的业务进一步收缩导致估值收缩的影响。反思三，股市投资从来都是反人性的，不要跟趋势作对。这段时间以来，我们关注到有不少著名大机构都出行了披露减持的现象。比如8月份，股神巴菲特开始陆续抛售持有了14年之久的比亚迪股份，大赚数百亿港元；同时，软银也再度大幅减持了阿里巴巴股份，爆赚了几百亿美金；而稍早点的，是腾讯大股东Naspers集团也大笔减持腾讯股份，这是其2018年以来第三次大减持。其实巨头的减持并不代表这些标的公司从此没有投资价值，只是投资从来都是为逐利而来。这些巨头的经验和层次，它们对宏观形势、对行业、对公司的理解肯定比我们普通人要更加深入。所以，他们就给了我们很好减持信号，起码短期内对市场不够信心。一个大佬可能说明不了问题，几个大佬都是同一个时间做着同样的事，那信号强度已经足够明显了。如果我们能早点理解这个信号，并作出相应规避操作，不与趋势作对，或许现在不至于套那么深。02、接下来股市怎么看？当前越发复杂多变的形势局面，让任何理论和预测模型都没有用武之地。我们长期依然看好A股和港股市场的未来，只是短期内好像没太多信心。从当前港股所面临的种种压力看来，还没看到明显改观的变化，尤其两国关系的问题，我们无法预测到结果会如何，甚至俄乌局势引发的能源危机、对全球经济的冲击到底还持续到什么时候，这些都没办法预测，但可以预测的是，股市未来持续弱势震荡下去一段时间的概率挺大。同时，上面说的那些机构大佬的减持计划才开启不久，要减持到既定目标还要相当一段时间，这也意味着它们依然会对大市形成持续的抛压。此外，当前全球为了摆脱极端高通胀危机，还在大力加息中，这也是影响港股下跌的又一大诱因。今天港股跌那么多，就是因为今晚美股即将迎来议息会议，市场对加100基点的共识很大，这可是不堪重负的压力，所以市场就先跌为敬了。美国如今已经非常明确通胀不降，加息不止，而当前的通胀还有8%，与3%以内的目标还有巨大，所以未来可能还有几次加息，也意味着对港股的压力长期存在。所以说，港股现在面临的压力，真的又多又无奈。所幸的是，现在的港股几大权重板块中，从行业内部看多数的估值已经契合了当前的业绩水平，很多龙头早就跌破行业平均估值水平了，如果没有这些外部的困扰，它们是有不错的吸引力的。我们现在看到了国家正在倾注大量的政策红利，各种稳经济政策层出不穷，而且三季度以来，开始取得了越来越多的成绩。尤其是在非地产类的传统基建、各种新基建，硬科技产业等等。客观来讲，在如此多的内外部压力下，我国的经济还能维持幅度并不差的增速发展，已经足够稳健给力了。别看股市跌得比较多，但宏观经济运行真不能说差，我们应该对金融与经济面客观理性地区别看待，更没必要看到一些负面的就对整体全盘否定。现在，个股层面已经有很多巨头公司开启回购计划，腾讯今年宣布回购计划以来，动辄每天几个亿的回购，还在持续进行中，同时还有友邦、小米、长城汽车等很多公司都宣布了回购计划，并且真枪实弹下场回购。起码，企业本身是认为自己是低估的。其实从长期来看，现在国内政策面对互联网平台、教育、地产等监管态度确实有转暖趋势，凭借它们的所在赛道本就是属于未来刚需，尤其互联网这些更是未来数字时代不可或缺基础设施，发展空间还是巨大的。别看现在跌这么惨，但放在以五年甚至十年以上的长远视角看，只要这些公司不倒下，未来还是能有很大成长空间的。只是，现在大家缺乏长期的耐心和足够信心。另一方面，再差的市场里也会有结构的行情。当前还有一些受益于当前宏观变化的行业比如传统能源、材料、粮食、高端制造、各种供应链服务等领域，仍然能有不错的发展红利。如果不关注那些在漩涡中的行业，这些板块不失为不错的避风港。03、结语尽管当前港股的环境甚至未来一段时间，依然都会有较大的压力。有分析认为，在加息的影响下，美国的通胀已经开始趋缓甚至回落，如果按照目前的加息节奏下去，可能到明年上半年就差不多能把通胀率降到目标位置了，前提是能一直维持美国乃至全球经济不崩。但如果加息导致经济崩溃，肯定是对目标的本末倒置，绝不是加息想要的。所以现在大家把加息预期都打那么满，或许如果到时候形势好于预期，反而不排除包括港股在内能迎来反弹行情。此外，从根本上，我们还是觉得用“阵痛”来客观评价当前的港股市场更加理想客观。理由很简单，金融市场关乎国运，国运向上，股市长期必然向上，只是短期会受各种因素影响而出现大波动，也就是以前发生过的所谓的危机。香港作为中国对外开放最重要的窗口，其金融市场的经济价值和战略意义都无比重要，所以尽管现在港股确实是阵痛不断，我们不应该对其失去希望。也许再熬一熬，到了明年，美联储进入加息末端时，情况就变好了。希望到时候的港股，能守得云开，再现荣光吧。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"HSTECH":0.9,"HSI":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1065,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9075331733,"gmtCreate":1658144319222,"gmtModify":1676536111831,"author":{"id":"3578273090742274","authorId":"3578273090742274","name":"Sinlin","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e26a5aacb13f0157a96e28fd565c12e5","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3578273090742274","authorIdStr":"3578273090742274"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"wow","listText":"wow","text":"wow","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9075331733","repostId":"2252828739","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"2252828739","kind":"highlight","pubTimestamp":1658136215,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/2252828739?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2022-07-18 17:23","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"Morgan Stanley: Even if the United States escapes recession, U.S. stocks may continue to fall","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2252828739","media":"环球市场播报","summary":"华尔街的一位大空头表示，即使美国经济躲过衰退，美国股市可能也还会继续下跌。“逆趋势的上涨可能还会继续，但不要误会，即使我们躲过了可能性正在上升的经济衰退，我们也不认为熊市已经结束，”Michael J","content":"<p><html><head></head><body>A big bear on Wall Street said that even if the U.S. economy escapes recession, the U.S. stock market may continue to fall.</p><p>\"The counter-trend rally may continue, but don't get me wrong, even if we escape a recession whose odds are rising, we don't think the bear market is over,\" Michael J. Wilson wrote in a note.</p><p>U.S. stocks have tumbled this year, pushing the S&P 500 into a bear market amid concerns that hot inflation and a hawkish Federal Reserve will plunge the economy into recession.<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MS\">Morgan Stanley</a>The model shows that the probability of an economic recession continues to rise, with a 36% probability of a recession in the next 12 months, while other warning signs include rising claims for unemployment benefits and fewer job openings.</p><p>Given that the Fed expects another 75 basis point rate hike next week, investors are now turning to corporate earnings season to see if margins are resilient amid surging prices and pessimism.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0ba9cb658ad467b60701c7b1b3cd1a12\" tg-width=\"550\" tg-height=\"313\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p>Goldman Sachs strategist David J. Kostin said he expects the weak macroeconomic outlook to threaten corporate profitability that has fallen from record highs. Profit margins and borrowing costs are two of the main risk factors to equity returns today, the strategist wrote in a July 15 note. Equity returns have held up well over the past year despite issues such as rising input costs, the omicron pandemic, and supply chain disruptions.</p><p>Morgan Stanley's Wilson has been one of the most determined stock market bears this year and accurately predicted the recent market decline. He also said he was \"skeptical\" of expectations that margin pressures will ease after the second quarter.</p><p>\"Continued labor, raw material, inventory and transportation cost pressures coupled with decelerating demand pose risks to margins that are not reflected in consensus expectations,\" Wilson said. He said that even if the revenue growth forecast remains unchanged, a return to the net profit margin level to pre-epidemic levels means that forward earnings per share will be hit by 10%.</p><p>On the other hand,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/JPM\">JPMorgan Chase</a>Investors can turn a blind eye to more challenging earnings-related news during the summer, according to strategists of. Strategists such as Mislav Matejka said in the report that stocks typically peak on or before the earnings trough, and the market may be approaching the point when bad data starts to be seen as good news.</p><p></body></html></p>","source":"highlight_sina","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Morgan Stanley: Even if the United States escapes recession, U.S. stocks may continue to fall</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nMorgan Stanley: Even if the United States escapes recession, U.S. stocks may continue to fall\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">环球市场播报</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2022-07-18 17:23</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><html><head></head><body>A big bear on Wall Street said that even if the U.S. economy escapes recession, the U.S. stock market may continue to fall.</p><p>\"The counter-trend rally may continue, but don't get me wrong, even if we escape a recession whose odds are rising, we don't think the bear market is over,\" Michael J. Wilson wrote in a note.</p><p>U.S. stocks have tumbled this year, pushing the S&P 500 into a bear market amid concerns that hot inflation and a hawkish Federal Reserve will plunge the economy into recession.<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MS\">Morgan Stanley</a>The model shows that the probability of an economic recession continues to rise, with a 36% probability of a recession in the next 12 months, while other warning signs include rising claims for unemployment benefits and fewer job openings.</p><p>Given that the Fed expects another 75 basis point rate hike next week, investors are now turning to corporate earnings season to see if margins are resilient amid surging prices and pessimism.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0ba9cb658ad467b60701c7b1b3cd1a12\" tg-width=\"550\" tg-height=\"313\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p>Goldman Sachs strategist David J. Kostin said he expects the weak macroeconomic outlook to threaten corporate profitability that has fallen from record highs. Profit margins and borrowing costs are two of the main risk factors to equity returns today, the strategist wrote in a July 15 note. Equity returns have held up well over the past year despite issues such as rising input costs, the omicron pandemic, and supply chain disruptions.</p><p>Morgan Stanley's Wilson has been one of the most determined stock market bears this year and accurately predicted the recent market decline. He also said he was \"skeptical\" of expectations that margin pressures will ease after the second quarter.</p><p>\"Continued labor, raw material, inventory and transportation cost pressures coupled with decelerating demand pose risks to margins that are not reflected in consensus expectations,\" Wilson said. He said that even if the revenue growth forecast remains unchanged, a return to the net profit margin level to pre-epidemic levels means that forward earnings per share will be hit by 10%.</p><p>On the other hand,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/JPM\">JPMorgan Chase</a>Investors can turn a blind eye to more challenging earnings-related news during the summer, according to strategists of. Strategists such as Mislav Matejka said in the report that stocks typically peak on or before the earnings trough, and the market may be approaching the point when bad data starts to be seen as good news.</p><p></body></html></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> source：<a href=\"https://finance.sina.com.cn/stock/usstock/c/2022-07-18/doc-imizirav4167808.shtml\">环球市场播报</a></p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/347452cc99fb488c45ccd900fcf3aa20","relate_stocks":{".DJI":"道琼斯"},"source_url":"https://finance.sina.com.cn/stock/usstock/c/2022-07-18/doc-imizirav4167808.shtml","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/b0d1b7e8843deea78cc308b15114de44","article_id":"2252828739","content_text":"华尔街的一位大空头表示，即使美国经济躲过衰退，美国股市可能也还会继续下跌。“逆趋势的上涨可能还会继续，但不要误会，即使我们躲过了可能性正在上升的经济衰退，我们也不认为熊市已经结束，”Michael J． Wilson在一份报告中写道。美国股市今年大跌，推动标普500指数进入熊市，因为市场担心火爆的通胀率和鹰派的美联储会让经济陷入衰退。摩根士丹利的模型显示经济衰退的可能性继续上升，未来12个月内发生衰退的概率为36%，而其他警告信号包括申领失业救济的人数上升以及职位空缺减少。鉴于美联储预计下周将再加息75个基点，投资者现在转向了企业财报季，看看在价格飙升和悲观情绪下，利润率是否具有韧性。高盛集团策略师David J． Kostin表示，他预计疲弱的宏观经济前景将威胁已经从纪录高位回落的企业盈利能力。这位策略师在7月 15日的报告中写道，利润率和借贷成本如今是股票回报率面临的两个主要风险因素。尽管面对投入成本上升、omicron疫情和供应链中断等问题，但股票回报率在过去一年中一直保持良好。摩根士丹利的Wilson是今年最坚定的股市空头之一，并准确预测到最近市场的下跌。他还表示，他对利润率压力将在第二季度之后有所缓解的预期持“怀疑态度”。“持续的劳动力、原材料、库存和运输成本压力再加上需求减速，这些因素对利润率构成的风险并未反映在市场普遍预期中，”Wilson说。他表示，即使收入增速预估保持必变，但净利润率水平回到疫情前的水平意味着远期每股收益将受到10%的冲击。另一方面，摩根大通的策略师们表示，投资者可以对夏季期间更具挑战性的盈利相关新闻视而不见。Mislav Matejka等策略师在报告中表示，股市通常会在盈利低谷到来或之前见顶，市场可能正在接近坏数据开始被视为好消息的时点。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{".DJI":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":978,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9075331467,"gmtCreate":1658144303959,"gmtModify":1676536111830,"author":{"id":"3578273090742274","authorId":"3578273090742274","name":"Sinlin","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e26a5aacb13f0157a96e28fd565c12e5","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3578273090742274","authorIdStr":"3578273090742274"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"👌🏻","listText":"👌🏻","text":"👌🏻","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9075331467","repostId":"2252346287","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"2252346287","kind":"highlight","pubTimestamp":1658139959,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/2252346287?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2022-07-18 18:25","market":"fut","language":"zh","title":"Scared off by high oil prices? U.S. gasoline consumption sees'off-season decline '","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2252346287","media":"华尔街见闻","summary":"由于油价居高不下，且市场对美国经济衰退的预期走高，美国消费者对汽油的需求正在放缓。美国消费者对汽油的需求在过去4周中有3周呈下降趋势。截至7月8日，美国汽油需求四周滚动均值下跌了2.9%至每天873万","content":"<p><html><head></head><body>U.S. consumer demand for gasoline is slowing as oil prices remain high and market expectations for a U.S. recession rise.</p><p>U.S. consumer demand for gasoline has been on a downward trend in three of the past four weeks. As of July 8, the four-week rolling average of U.S. gasoline demand fell 2.9% to 8.73 million barrels per day.</p><p>This has raised concerns among some crude oil producers about gasoline demand. Some media said,<b>Now it's the traditional American road travel season that breaks out every summer, but gasoline consumption in the United States has experienced an unexpected \"out-of-season decline\".</b></p><p>As shown in the chart below, except for the 2020 blockade in COVID-19 pandemic, when demand for gasoline in the United States plummeted, it is now the lowest seasonal demand in recent years.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c3fe4c21175e461802dbcc7e77f2e5c8\" tg-width=\"671\" tg-height=\"464\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p>Some analysts say that the gasoline usually consumed by Americans when commuting accounts for most of the market demand. There is currently no indication that the demand of commuters will decrease, but Linda Giesecke, an analyst at ESAI Energy LLC, said:<b>\"Seasonal growth is being cut\".</b></p><p>As oil prices remain high for a long time, consumer demand is actually declining correspondingly. John Kilduff, founding partner of energy hedge fund Again Capita, said:</p><p>Drivers in California seem to have reached their limits (of tolerance with high gas prices), and if oil prices fall back sharply one day, then there is a chance that we can see demand pick up again. but<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MS\">Morgan Stanley</a>Earlier this month, it was expected that demand growth for U.S. gasoline consumption would slow, rather than fall directly.<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/RY\">Royal Bank of Canada</a>The capital market also has a similar analysis in the latest report:</p><p>In the past 30 years, retail gasoline prices have risen by more than 30% in 39 separate months, and gasoline demand has only fallen by more than 2% on 12 occasions. It is worth mentioning that a previous article on Wall Street Journal mentioned that on the supply side, Russian oil production has not dropped significantly due to European and American sanctions, and the United States and Canada are still actively increasing production.</p><p>At the same time, demand in the crude oil market has been suppressed by rising oil prices and pessimistic economic outlook.<b>Under the combined action of many factors, the International Energy Agency believes that the global oil supply crisis has shown initial signs of easing.</b></p><p></body></html></p>","source":"wallstreetcn_api","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Scared off by high oil prices? U.S. gasoline consumption sees'off-season decline '</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nScared off by high oil prices? U.S. gasoline consumption sees'off-season decline '\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">华尔街见闻</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2022-07-18 18:25</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><html><head></head><body>U.S. consumer demand for gasoline is slowing as oil prices remain high and market expectations for a U.S. recession rise.</p><p>U.S. consumer demand for gasoline has been on a downward trend in three of the past four weeks. As of July 8, the four-week rolling average of U.S. gasoline demand fell 2.9% to 8.73 million barrels per day.</p><p>This has raised concerns among some crude oil producers about gasoline demand. Some media said,<b>Now it's the traditional American road travel season that breaks out every summer, but gasoline consumption in the United States has experienced an unexpected \"out-of-season decline\".</b></p><p>As shown in the chart below, except for the 2020 blockade in COVID-19 pandemic, when demand for gasoline in the United States plummeted, it is now the lowest seasonal demand in recent years.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c3fe4c21175e461802dbcc7e77f2e5c8\" tg-width=\"671\" tg-height=\"464\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p>Some analysts say that the gasoline usually consumed by Americans when commuting accounts for most of the market demand. There is currently no indication that the demand of commuters will decrease, but Linda Giesecke, an analyst at ESAI Energy LLC, said:<b>\"Seasonal growth is being cut\".</b></p><p>As oil prices remain high for a long time, consumer demand is actually declining correspondingly. John Kilduff, founding partner of energy hedge fund Again Capita, said:</p><p>Drivers in California seem to have reached their limits (of tolerance with high gas prices), and if oil prices fall back sharply one day, then there is a chance that we can see demand pick up again. but<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MS\">Morgan Stanley</a>Earlier this month, it was expected that demand growth for U.S. gasoline consumption would slow, rather than fall directly.<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/RY\">Royal Bank of Canada</a>The capital market also has a similar analysis in the latest report:</p><p>In the past 30 years, retail gasoline prices have risen by more than 30% in 39 separate months, and gasoline demand has only fallen by more than 2% on 12 occasions. It is worth mentioning that a previous article on Wall Street Journal mentioned that on the supply side, Russian oil production has not dropped significantly due to European and American sanctions, and the United States and Canada are still actively increasing production.</p><p>At the same time, demand in the crude oil market has been suppressed by rising oil prices and pessimistic economic outlook.<b>Under the combined action of many factors, the International Energy Agency believes that the global oil supply crisis has shown initial signs of easing.</b></p><p></body></html></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> source：<a href=\"https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3665061\">华尔街见闻</a></p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/15e20574f8fb568333181d61bb200086","relate_stocks":{},"source_url":"https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3665061","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2252346287","content_text":"由于油价居高不下，且市场对美国经济衰退的预期走高，美国消费者对汽油的需求正在放缓。美国消费者对汽油的需求在过去4周中有3周呈下降趋势。截至7月8日，美国汽油需求四周滚动均值下跌了2.9%至每天873万桶。这引发了一些原油生产商对汽油需求的担忧。有媒体称，如今正值每年夏天都会爆发的美国传统公路旅行季，但是美国汽油消费却出现令人意外的“反季节下降”。如下图所示，除了2020年新冠疫情封锁期间，美国汽油的需求量骤减，如今正是近年来最低的季节性需求。有分析称，通常美国人通勤所消耗的汽油占了大部分的市场需求，目前暂未有迹象表明通勤者的需求会减少，但是ESAI Energy LLC的分析师Linda Giesecke称：“季节性增长正在被削减”。随着油价长期维持高位，实际上，消费者需求正在相对应地下降。能源对冲基金Again Capita的创始合伙人John Kilduff表示：加州的司机似乎（对高油价的忍耐）已经达到了极限，如果油价有一天大幅回落，那么我们有可能会看到需求再次回升。但是摩根士丹利本月早些时候预计，美国汽油消费的需求增长将放缓，而不是直接下降。加拿大皇家银行资本市场也在最新的报告中有类似的分析：在过去30年中，有39个单独的月份，零售汽油价格上涨了30%以上，而在这其中，汽油需求仅有12次下降幅度超过2%。值得一提的是，华尔街见闻此前文章提及，在供应方面，俄罗斯石油产量并没有因为欧美制裁出现大幅下降，并且美国和加拿大还在积极增产。而与此同时，原油市场的需求同时被高涨的油价和悲观的经济前景预期所打压。在多方因素共同作用下，国际能源署认为，全球范围内的石油供应危机已经出现初步缓和的迹象。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"CLmain":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1187,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9075331662,"gmtCreate":1658144270756,"gmtModify":1676536111847,"author":{"id":"3578273090742274","authorId":"3578273090742274","name":"Sinlin","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e26a5aacb13f0157a96e28fd565c12e5","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3578273090742274","authorIdStr":"3578273090742274"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"👌🏻","listText":"👌🏻","text":"👌🏻","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9075331662","repostId":"1152909637","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1269,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9072561079,"gmtCreate":1658065472191,"gmtModify":1676536100222,"author":{"id":"3578273090742274","authorId":"3578273090742274","name":"Sinlin","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e26a5aacb13f0157a96e28fd565c12e5","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3578273090742274","authorIdStr":"3578273090742274"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"ok","listText":"ok","text":"ok","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9072561079","repostId":"2251493617","repostType":2,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":978,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9076562535,"gmtCreate":1657870691827,"gmtModify":1676536075558,"author":{"id":"3578273090742274","authorId":"3578273090742274","name":"Sinlin","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e26a5aacb13f0157a96e28fd565c12e5","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3578273090742274","authorIdStr":"3578273090742274"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"nice","listText":"nice","text":"nice","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9076562535","repostId":"1174033197","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"1174033197","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1657854563,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1174033197?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2022-07-15 11:09","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"Behind the overnight reversal of U.S. stocks: Former officials predict the Fed's \"turn\" time!","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1174033197","media":"华尔街见闻","summary":"华尔街“最懂美联储”的分析师：明年下半年不仅降息，还会提前结束缩表！","content":"<p><html><head></head><body>Author: Ye Zhen</p><p>U.S. stocks once again staged a V-shaped reversal overnight, from a deep decline to recovering most of the lost ground, and the Nasdaq closed up in a thrilling way, which may be related to a report by Bank of America's top interest rate strategist.</p><p>On Thursday, under the expectation of strong rate hike, the three major U.S. stock indexes collectively fell by more than 2% in open low. However, the three major indexes rebounded strongly in the afternoon. The S&P finally closed down 0.3%, the Dow closed down 0.46%, and the Nasdaq closed up 0.03%.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1d2deed31b461495ac0cd1a610806c8d\" tg-width=\"1024\" tg-height=\"575\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>During the day, two senior hawkish officials of the Federal Reserve spoke out successively, easing the market's expectation of 100 basis point rate hike in July, which boosted the rebound of U.S. stocks to a certain extent. However, many front-line traders in the market believe that it was Bank of America's top interest rate strategist and former New York Fed analyst Marc Cabana that really led to the overnight reversal of U.S. stocks. The report believes that the Fed will be forced to end its tightening policy much earlier than expected.</p><p>Cabana is the head of U.S. interest rate strategy at Bank of America Global Research and before joining Bank of America, he was an officer in the New York Fed Markets Division, spent nearly nine years in the open market trading department and was closely involved in the design and implementation of a range of asset purchases/quantitative easing initiatives during the financial crisis.</p><p>Cabana's forecast accuracy of monetary policy is very high. He predicted it a few days before the Federal Reserve bought corporate bonds, which also makes him enjoy a high reputation on Wall Street. His views on Fed policy, interest rates and financial supervision always attract widespread attention and influence.</p><p>So what exactly does Cabana's latest report say?</p><p>In the second half of next year, the Fed will not only cut interest rates, but also end the shrinking balance sheet early</p><p>On Thursday, after the Bank of America equity strategy team lowered its S&P year-end target from 4,500 to 3,600, the Cabana team released a report,<b>Significantly revised U.S. interest rate forecasts downward, expecting the Fed to not only cut interest rates in the second half of next year, but also end its shrinking balance sheet early.</b></p><p>On the same day, the Bank of America macro team lowered its U.S. economic forecast to reflect this year's recession, and lowered the Fed's Federal Funds rate path. The final Federal Funds rate forecast was lowered from 4.00-4.25% to 3.25-3.50%, and the Fed is expected to cut interest rates by 100 basis points between September 23 and June 24.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4cfa16d6972770bc5deaa91c186de8f8\" tg-width=\"1024\" tg-height=\"357\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>The Cabana team accordingly lowered its forecast for U.S. bond yields, lowering its 10-year US Treasury yields expectation due 2022 from 3.50% to 2.75%, and its 10-year US Treasury yields expectation due 2023 from 3.25% to 2.50%, and said:</p><p>Given the expectation that the Federal Reserve will cut interest rates in the second half of 23 and the first half of 24, our new forecast is very optimistic relative to the market implied forward rate. Our previous rate forecast initially reflected an optimistic bias relative to forward rates, but the latest revision is more optimistic.<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/44553abdeabbffb36eb5602065c594bb\" tg-width=\"710\" tg-height=\"327\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/20cc791e11d977c8134517896a90ecaf\" tg-width=\"1024\" tg-height=\"208\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/>Cabana also expects the Fed to cut interest rates in the second half of next year at the end of the shrinking balance sheet:</p><p>Because interest rate cuts and shrinking balance sheet send contradictory policy signals, we expect the Fed to cut interest rates and stop shrinking balance sheet at the same time to simplify policy communication; The Fed is unlikely to use shrinking balance sheet to tighten while loosening by cutting interest rates. Cabana said that actually the Fed did just that in 2019, when it began cutting interest rates in July and simultaneously announced the halt of shrinking balance sheet. Of course, it is also possible that the Fed chooses not to follow the 2019 bundle strategy, but Cabana believes this is unlikely. He added some reasons:</p><p>The Fed will only \"normalize\" front-end interest rates after a period of rising inflation, and the Fed's balance sheet may still be far from reserve-short. We see the logic of each argument, but believe it is difficult to prove it beforehand. We expect the Fed to choose the simplest way of communication: stop shrinking balance sheet when it cuts rates. Cabana went on to point out that an earlier end to the shrinking balance sheet would have several implications for U.S. debt:</p><p>Due to more cash/less collateral in the financial system, there is less pressure on short-term U.S. debt depreciation, there may be more coupon reductions due to lower financing needs, and secondary market disruption due to the Fed's resumption of purchases and reinvestments. Each will tend to favor the spread between U.S. bond yields and secured overnight financing rates (UST-SOFR spreads) tending to be wider on the curve. As for what happens to the Fed's balance sheet, Cabana said:</p><p>Compared to our previous forecast, the Fed stopping its shrinking balance sheet in September 2023 would result in a $1 trillion reduction in the balance sheet compared to the previous forecast of the end of 2024. An earlier end of the shrinking balance sheet would result in a $780 billion reduction in U.S. debt financing needs, plus an additional $350 billion in the Federal Reserve's demand for U.S. debt.<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/24a9f70fabfaae1c371e524a8d0a425c\" tg-width=\"1024\" tg-height=\"362\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></body></html></p>","source":"highlight_wallstreetcn","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Behind the overnight reversal of U.S. stocks: Former officials predict the Fed's \"turn\" time!</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nBehind the overnight reversal of U.S. stocks: Former officials predict the Fed's \"turn\" time!\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">华尔街见闻</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2022-07-15 11:09</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><html><head></head><body>Author: Ye Zhen</p><p>U.S. stocks once again staged a V-shaped reversal overnight, from a deep decline to recovering most of the lost ground, and the Nasdaq closed up in a thrilling way, which may be related to a report by Bank of America's top interest rate strategist.</p><p>On Thursday, under the expectation of strong rate hike, the three major U.S. stock indexes collectively fell by more than 2% in open low. However, the three major indexes rebounded strongly in the afternoon. The S&P finally closed down 0.3%, the Dow closed down 0.46%, and the Nasdaq closed up 0.03%.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1d2deed31b461495ac0cd1a610806c8d\" tg-width=\"1024\" tg-height=\"575\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>During the day, two senior hawkish officials of the Federal Reserve spoke out successively, easing the market's expectation of 100 basis point rate hike in July, which boosted the rebound of U.S. stocks to a certain extent. However, many front-line traders in the market believe that it was Bank of America's top interest rate strategist and former New York Fed analyst Marc Cabana that really led to the overnight reversal of U.S. stocks. The report believes that the Fed will be forced to end its tightening policy much earlier than expected.</p><p>Cabana is the head of U.S. interest rate strategy at Bank of America Global Research and before joining Bank of America, he was an officer in the New York Fed Markets Division, spent nearly nine years in the open market trading department and was closely involved in the design and implementation of a range of asset purchases/quantitative easing initiatives during the financial crisis.</p><p>Cabana's forecast accuracy of monetary policy is very high. He predicted it a few days before the Federal Reserve bought corporate bonds, which also makes him enjoy a high reputation on Wall Street. His views on Fed policy, interest rates and financial supervision always attract widespread attention and influence.</p><p>So what exactly does Cabana's latest report say?</p><p>In the second half of next year, the Fed will not only cut interest rates, but also end the shrinking balance sheet early</p><p>On Thursday, after the Bank of America equity strategy team lowered its S&P year-end target from 4,500 to 3,600, the Cabana team released a report,<b>Significantly revised U.S. interest rate forecasts downward, expecting the Fed to not only cut interest rates in the second half of next year, but also end its shrinking balance sheet early.</b></p><p>On the same day, the Bank of America macro team lowered its U.S. economic forecast to reflect this year's recession, and lowered the Fed's Federal Funds rate path. The final Federal Funds rate forecast was lowered from 4.00-4.25% to 3.25-3.50%, and the Fed is expected to cut interest rates by 100 basis points between September 23 and June 24.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4cfa16d6972770bc5deaa91c186de8f8\" tg-width=\"1024\" tg-height=\"357\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>The Cabana team accordingly lowered its forecast for U.S. bond yields, lowering its 10-year US Treasury yields expectation due 2022 from 3.50% to 2.75%, and its 10-year US Treasury yields expectation due 2023 from 3.25% to 2.50%, and said:</p><p>Given the expectation that the Federal Reserve will cut interest rates in the second half of 23 and the first half of 24, our new forecast is very optimistic relative to the market implied forward rate. Our previous rate forecast initially reflected an optimistic bias relative to forward rates, but the latest revision is more optimistic.<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/44553abdeabbffb36eb5602065c594bb\" tg-width=\"710\" tg-height=\"327\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/20cc791e11d977c8134517896a90ecaf\" tg-width=\"1024\" tg-height=\"208\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/>Cabana also expects the Fed to cut interest rates in the second half of next year at the end of the shrinking balance sheet:</p><p>Because interest rate cuts and shrinking balance sheet send contradictory policy signals, we expect the Fed to cut interest rates and stop shrinking balance sheet at the same time to simplify policy communication; The Fed is unlikely to use shrinking balance sheet to tighten while loosening by cutting interest rates. Cabana said that actually the Fed did just that in 2019, when it began cutting interest rates in July and simultaneously announced the halt of shrinking balance sheet. Of course, it is also possible that the Fed chooses not to follow the 2019 bundle strategy, but Cabana believes this is unlikely. He added some reasons:</p><p>The Fed will only \"normalize\" front-end interest rates after a period of rising inflation, and the Fed's balance sheet may still be far from reserve-short. We see the logic of each argument, but believe it is difficult to prove it beforehand. We expect the Fed to choose the simplest way of communication: stop shrinking balance sheet when it cuts rates. Cabana went on to point out that an earlier end to the shrinking balance sheet would have several implications for U.S. debt:</p><p>Due to more cash/less collateral in the financial system, there is less pressure on short-term U.S. debt depreciation, there may be more coupon reductions due to lower financing needs, and secondary market disruption due to the Fed's resumption of purchases and reinvestments. Each will tend to favor the spread between U.S. bond yields and secured overnight financing rates (UST-SOFR spreads) tending to be wider on the curve. As for what happens to the Fed's balance sheet, Cabana said:</p><p>Compared to our previous forecast, the Fed stopping its shrinking balance sheet in September 2023 would result in a $1 trillion reduction in the balance sheet compared to the previous forecast of the end of 2024. An earlier end of the shrinking balance sheet would result in a $780 billion reduction in U.S. debt financing needs, plus an additional $350 billion in the Federal Reserve's demand for U.S. debt.<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/24a9f70fabfaae1c371e524a8d0a425c\" tg-width=\"1024\" tg-height=\"362\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></body></html></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> source：<a href=\"https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3664863\">华尔街见闻</a></p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2578fef036607345dce47cc401e172a3","relate_stocks":{".DJI":"道琼斯"},"source_url":"https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3664863","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/cc96873d3d23ee6ac10685520df9c100","article_id":"1174033197","content_text":"作者：叶桢隔夜美股再度上演V型大逆转，从深跌到收复大部分失地，纳指更是惊险收涨，而这背后或与美国银行顶级利率策略师的一份报告有关。周四，在强势的加息预期下，美股三大股指集体低开，一度均跌超过2%。但午后三大指数强势反弹，标普最终收跌0.3%，道指收跌0.46%，纳指收涨0.03%。日内两名美联储鹰派高官先后发声，缓和了市场对7月100基点加息的预期，一定程度上助推了美股反弹，但很多市场一线交易员都认为真正导致隔夜美股大逆转的是美国银行顶级利率策略师、前纽约联储分析师Marc Cabana的一份报告，该报告认为，美联储将被迫比预期早得多地结束紧缩政策。Cabana是美国银行全球研究的美国利率策略主管，在加入美银之前，他是纽约联储市场部的一名官员，在公开市场交易部门工作了近9年，并在金融危机期间密切参与了一系列资产购买/量化宽松计划的设计和实施。Cabana对货币政策的预测准确率非常高，曾在美联储购买公司债的前几天就预测到了，这也使得他在华尔街享有很高的声望，他对美联储政策、利率和金融监管的看法总是能引起广泛关注和影响。那么Cabana的最新报告究竟说了什么？明年下半年，美联储不仅会降息，还会提前结束缩表周四，在美银股票策略团队下调标普年终目标位从4500点到3600点后，Cabana团队发布了一份报告，大幅向下修正美国利率预测，预计美联储明年下半年不仅会降息，还会提前结束缩表。同一天，美银宏观团队下调美国经济预测以反映今年衰退，并且下调了美联储联邦基金利率路径，对于最终联邦基金利率预期从4.00-4.25%下调至3.25-3.50%，并且预期美联储将在明年9月23日至6月24日期间降息100个基点。Cabana团队相应地下调了对美债收益率的预期，将2022年到期的10年期美债利率预期从3.50%下调至2.75%，2023年到期的10年期美债利率预期从3.25%下调至2.50%，并表示：鉴于对美联储在23年下半年和24年上半年降息的预期，我们的新预测相对市场隐含远期利率来说非常地乐观。我们之前的利率预测最初反映了相对远期利率的乐观倾向，但最新修正则更加乐观。Cabana还预计美联储明年下半年将在缩表结束时降息：因为降息和缩表传递的是相互矛盾的政策信号，我们预计美联储降息同时将停止缩表，以简化政策沟通；美联储不太可能在通过降息来宽松的同时，采用缩表来紧缩。Cabana表示，实际上美联储在2019年就是这样做的，当时美联储在7月开始降息，并同时宣布停止缩表。当然美联储也有可能选择不遵循2019年的束策略，但Cabana认为这是不太可能的，他补充了一些理由：美联储只有在一段时间的通胀上升后才会将前端利率\"正常化\"，美联储的资产负债表可能仍远未达到储备短缺的程度。我们看到了每个论点的逻辑，但相信很难在事前证明。我们预计美联储会选择最简单的沟通方式：在降息时停止缩表。Cabana接着指出，较早的结束缩表会对美债产生几个影响:由于金融系统中有更多现金/更少的抵押品，减少了短期美债贬值压力，由于融资需求降低，可能会有更多的息票减少，以及由于美联储重新开始购买和再投资而导致的二级市场混乱减少。每一种都将倾向于偏向美债收益率和担保隔夜融资利率的息差（UST-SOFR spreads） 在曲线上趋于更广。至于美联储的资产负债表会发生什么变化，Cabana表示：与我们之前的预测相比，美联储于2023年9月停止缩表将导致资产负债表较之前预测的2024年底结束的情况减少1万亿美元。缩表更早结束将导致减少7800亿美元的美债融资需求，外加美联储对美债的3500亿美元额外需求。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{".DJI":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":992,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9058095535,"gmtCreate":1654749148027,"gmtModify":1676535504482,"author":{"id":"3578273090742274","authorId":"3578273090742274","name":"Sinlin","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e26a5aacb13f0157a96e28fd565c12e5","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3578273090742274","authorIdStr":"3578273090742274"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"F","listText":"F","text":"F","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9058095535","repostId":"1137515089","repostType":2,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1147,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9023147544,"gmtCreate":1652886339388,"gmtModify":1676535181648,"author":{"id":"3578273090742274","authorId":"3578273090742274","name":"Sinlin","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e26a5aacb13f0157a96e28fd565c12e5","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3578273090742274","authorIdStr":"3578273090742274"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"👌🏻","listText":"👌🏻","text":"👌🏻","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9023147544","repostId":"1169142248","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1169142248","kind":"news","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"中国大陆领先的金融数据、信息和软件服务企业，总部位于上海陆家嘴金融中心。","home_visible":1,"media_name":"Wind万得","id":"99","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c71e30d1317b4a5cb20a41998e10ac68"},"pubTimestamp":1652856447,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1169142248?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2022-05-18 14:47","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"There are 5 stages of a bear market. At what stage is the US stock market now?","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1169142248","media":"Wind万得","summary":"美股熊市结束了吗？从一些经典指标看，似乎还没有。","content":"<p><html><head></head><body>Is the U.S. stock bear market over? Judging from some classic indicators, it seems that there is not yet. The S&P 500 is now 16% below its all-time high, and the Nasdaq and Russell 2000 are still in bear market territory. However, the recent marginal improvement in the international environment has caused investors to focus on finding opportunities to enter the market, rather than worrying about another deep decline in the market.</p><p>Analyst and financial columnist Mark Hulbert believes that this eager bargain-hunting momentum is more reminiscent of the \"slope of hope\" that bear markets usually fall, rather than the \"wall of worry\" that bull markets like to climb. Note that this is not to say that U.S. stocks cannot achieve an impressive rebound at current levels. If this is the case, it is more likely to be a bear market rally than the beginning of a new bull market.</p><p>Past bear markets have shown that few investors consider the possibility when a bear market does hit a bottom, which comes when investors won't even be paying attention because investors have become so frustrated that they throw in the towel, either treating any signs of market strength as a bear trap.</p><p>Obviously, the current sentiment on Wall Street does not conform to the characteristics of a bear market bottom. The development process of bear market psychology is similar to what psychologists call the five stages of grief, which are denial, anger, reduction of living expenses, frustration and acceptance.</p><p>Here's how they perform in the stock market:</p><p>Stage of Denial: During this initial stage, the prevailing view in the market is that weakness in the stock market is nothing more than a buying opportunity. Far from getting angry, investors have remained quite optimistic as the market's pullback provides an opportunity to buy stocks cheaper than if the bull market continues.</p><p>Fury Phase: As market pullbacks become too severe, denial becomes increasingly difficult to maintain. Investor sentiment eventually turned into anger as they complained about the unfairness of the divestment. A characteristic of this phase is that investors view the divestment as an insult to the individual, as if the market should care if the investor loses money.</p><p>Reducing living expenses phase: Investors redirect their energy to figuring out whether they can maintain their lifestyle in the event of a shock to their investment portfolio. Retirees reformulate their financial plans and give up some merchandise purchases or vacation expenses. Although these expenses are only part of their budget.</p><p>Frustration Phase: As the market continues to decline, people are beginning to realize that simply reducing expenses is not enough, and that major lifestyle changes are needed. Those approaching retirement are working longer hours than originally planned, and even more retirees are returning to work.</p><p>Acceptance stage: Investors throw in the towel, they succumb to the bear market and no longer even fantasize about when the bear market will end. They treat any sign of market strength as a stupid rally, enticing gullible people to lose more money in the next drop.</p><p><b>What stage is the US stock market now?</b></p><p>Mark Hulbert believes that the U.S. stock market has not exceeded the second stage. Although not all investors are at the same frequency, on the whole, the sentiment displayed by the market tends to think that the current correction is a buying opportunity, or that the current fragility of the market is basically unfair.</p><p>Sometimes, the information conveyed by the market is disorderly and confusing. At present, there are also signs of Wall Street institutions \"surrendering\" in the market, but this is not necessarily reliable. Mark Hulbert believes that when investors really admit defeat, no one will shout to admit defeat, but will be indifferent to the market and indifferent to other signals.</p><p>Of course, not all stock market declines will go through the above five stages, because not all adjustments will evolve into typical bear markets. These discussions are not to say that the market is bound to fall more. However, if optimists want the market to turn, they must wait until investors actually capitulate.</p><p></body></html></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>There are 5 stages of a bear market. At what stage is the US stock market now?</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nThere are 5 stages of a bear market. At what stage is the US stock market now?\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/99\">\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/c71e30d1317b4a5cb20a41998e10ac68);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">Wind万得 </p>\n<p class=\"h-time smaller\">2022-05-18 14:47</p>\n</div>\n</a>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><html><head></head><body>Is the U.S. stock bear market over? Judging from some classic indicators, it seems that there is not yet. The S&P 500 is now 16% below its all-time high, and the Nasdaq and Russell 2000 are still in bear market territory. However, the recent marginal improvement in the international environment has caused investors to focus on finding opportunities to enter the market, rather than worrying about another deep decline in the market.</p><p>Analyst and financial columnist Mark Hulbert believes that this eager bargain-hunting momentum is more reminiscent of the \"slope of hope\" that bear markets usually fall, rather than the \"wall of worry\" that bull markets like to climb. Note that this is not to say that U.S. stocks cannot achieve an impressive rebound at current levels. If this is the case, it is more likely to be a bear market rally than the beginning of a new bull market.</p><p>Past bear markets have shown that few investors consider the possibility when a bear market does hit a bottom, which comes when investors won't even be paying attention because investors have become so frustrated that they throw in the towel, either treating any signs of market strength as a bear trap.</p><p>Obviously, the current sentiment on Wall Street does not conform to the characteristics of a bear market bottom. The development process of bear market psychology is similar to what psychologists call the five stages of grief, which are denial, anger, reduction of living expenses, frustration and acceptance.</p><p>Here's how they perform in the stock market:</p><p>Stage of Denial: During this initial stage, the prevailing view in the market is that weakness in the stock market is nothing more than a buying opportunity. Far from getting angry, investors have remained quite optimistic as the market's pullback provides an opportunity to buy stocks cheaper than if the bull market continues.</p><p>Fury Phase: As market pullbacks become too severe, denial becomes increasingly difficult to maintain. Investor sentiment eventually turned into anger as they complained about the unfairness of the divestment. A characteristic of this phase is that investors view the divestment as an insult to the individual, as if the market should care if the investor loses money.</p><p>Reducing living expenses phase: Investors redirect their energy to figuring out whether they can maintain their lifestyle in the event of a shock to their investment portfolio. Retirees reformulate their financial plans and give up some merchandise purchases or vacation expenses. Although these expenses are only part of their budget.</p><p>Frustration Phase: As the market continues to decline, people are beginning to realize that simply reducing expenses is not enough, and that major lifestyle changes are needed. Those approaching retirement are working longer hours than originally planned, and even more retirees are returning to work.</p><p>Acceptance stage: Investors throw in the towel, they succumb to the bear market and no longer even fantasize about when the bear market will end. They treat any sign of market strength as a stupid rally, enticing gullible people to lose more money in the next drop.</p><p><b>What stage is the US stock market now?</b></p><p>Mark Hulbert believes that the U.S. stock market has not exceeded the second stage. Although not all investors are at the same frequency, on the whole, the sentiment displayed by the market tends to think that the current correction is a buying opportunity, or that the current fragility of the market is basically unfair.</p><p>Sometimes, the information conveyed by the market is disorderly and confusing. At present, there are also signs of Wall Street institutions \"surrendering\" in the market, but this is not necessarily reliable. Mark Hulbert believes that when investors really admit defeat, no one will shout to admit defeat, but will be indifferent to the market and indifferent to other signals.</p><p>Of course, not all stock market declines will go through the above five stages, because not all adjustments will evolve into typical bear markets. These discussions are not to say that the market is bound to fall more. However, if optimists want the market to turn, they must wait until investors actually capitulate.</p><p></body></html></p>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/144fcf63ccaceb7d59c371695c704fb3","relate_stocks":{".DJI":"道琼斯",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite"},"source_url":"","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1169142248","content_text":"美股熊市结束了吗？从一些经典指标看，似乎还没有。标普500指数现在比历史高点低16%，纳指和罗素2000依旧位于熊市区间。但近期国际环境的边际改善，使得投资者开始专注于寻找入场的机会，而不是担心市场再一次深跌。分析师、财经专栏作家Mark Hulbert认为，这种跃跃欲试的抄底气势，更让人想起熊市通常会下降的“希望斜坡”，而不是牛市喜欢爬的“担忧之墙”。注意，这并不是说，美股无法在当前水平上实现令人印象深刻的反弹。如果真是这样的话，它更有可能是一场熊市反弹，而不是一轮新的牛市行情的开始。过去的熊市显示，当熊市真的触底时，几乎没有投资者会考虑这种可能性，熊市底是在投资者甚至不会关注的时候出现的，因为投资者已经变得如此沮丧以至于认输了，要么将任何市场强势的迹象视为熊市陷阱。显然，华尔街当前的情绪，并不符合熊市底的特征。熊市心理学的发展过程类似于心理学家所说的悲伤的五个阶段，分别是否认、愤怒、缩减生活支出、沮丧和接受。以下是它们在股市中的表现：否认阶段：在这一初始阶段，市场流行的观点是，股市疲软只不过是一个买入机会。投资者非但没有感到愤怒，反而保持了相当乐观的态度，因为市场的回调提供了一个机会，可以以比牛市持续下去更便宜的价格购买股票。愤怒阶段：随着市场回调变得过于严重，否认变得越来越难以维持。投资者的情绪最终演变为愤怒，因为他们抱怨撤资的不公平。这一阶段的一个特点是，投资者将撤资视为对个人的侮辱，就好像市场应该关心投资者是否赔钱。缩减生活支出阶段：投资者将精力重新引导到，弄清楚自己是否能够在投资组合受到冲击的情况下，维持自己的生活方式上。退休人员重新制定他们的财务计划，放弃一些商品购买或者度假开销。尽管这些开销只是他们预算中的一部分。沮丧阶段：随着市场持续下滑，人们开始意识到仅仅减少开支是不够的，生活方式需要重大改变。接近退休的人的工作时间比原计划的要长，更有甚者退休人员重返工作岗位。接受阶段：投资者认输，他们屈服于熊市，甚至不再幻想熊市何时结束。他们把任何市场强势的迹象都视为一场愚蠢的反弹，诱使那些容易上当的人在下一轮下跌中损失更多的钱。美股现在到哪个阶段了？Mark Hulbert 认为，现在美股市场没有超过第二个阶段。虽然不是所有投资者都处在同一频率，但是整体上，市场展示的情绪倾向于认为现在的回调是一个买入的机会，或者认为市场目前呈现的脆弱基本是不公平的。有时候，市场传递的信息也是无序的，有迷惑性的。目前市场中，也出现华尔街机构”缴械投降“的迹象，但这并不一定是可靠的。Mark Hulbert 认为，投资者真正认输的时候，没有人会嚷嚷认输，而是对市场冷漠，对其他信号漠不关心。当然，并不是所有的股市下跌都会经历以上5各阶段，因为不是所有的调整都会演变为典型熊市。这些讨论也并不是说，市场必然会跌得更多。但是，乐观者想要市场转向，必须等到投资者真正投降。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{".SPX":0.9,".DJI":0.9,".IXIC":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1317,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9029639276,"gmtCreate":1652764121495,"gmtModify":1676535157604,"author":{"id":"3578273090742274","authorId":"3578273090742274","name":"Sinlin","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e26a5aacb13f0157a96e28fd565c12e5","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3578273090742274","authorIdStr":"3578273090742274"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"wow","listText":"wow","text":"wow","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9029639276","repostId":"2236279293","repostType":2,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":972,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0}],"hots":[{"id":9982019949,"gmtCreate":1667041042282,"gmtModify":1676537853341,"author":{"id":"3578273090742274","authorId":"3578273090742274","name":"Sinlin","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e26a5aacb13f0157a96e28fd565c12e5","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3578273090742274","idStr":"3578273090742274"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/BSL.SI\">$莱佛士医疗(BSL.SI)$</a>go","listText":"<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/BSL.SI\">$莱佛士医疗(BSL.SI)$</a>go","text":"$莱佛士医疗(BSL.SI)$go","images":[{"img":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/50313c43919ff6a8f7047e3ce40fcf0d","width":"1125","height":"2244"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":5,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9982019949","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":3318,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9023147544,"gmtCreate":1652886339388,"gmtModify":1676535181648,"author":{"id":"3578273090742274","authorId":"3578273090742274","name":"Sinlin","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e26a5aacb13f0157a96e28fd565c12e5","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3578273090742274","idStr":"3578273090742274"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"👌🏻","listText":"👌🏻","text":"👌🏻","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9023147544","repostId":"1169142248","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1169142248","kind":"news","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"中国大陆领先的金融数据、信息和软件服务企业，总部位于上海陆家嘴金融中心。","home_visible":1,"media_name":"Wind万得","id":"99","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c71e30d1317b4a5cb20a41998e10ac68"},"pubTimestamp":1652856447,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1169142248?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2022-05-18 14:47","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"There are 5 stages of a bear market. At what stage is the US stock market now?","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1169142248","media":"Wind万得","summary":"美股熊市结束了吗？从一些经典指标看，似乎还没有。","content":"<p><html><head></head><body>Is the U.S. stock bear market over? Judging from some classic indicators, it seems that there is not yet. The S&P 500 is now 16% below its all-time high, and the Nasdaq and Russell 2000 are still in bear market territory. However, the recent marginal improvement in the international environment has caused investors to focus on finding opportunities to enter the market, rather than worrying about another deep decline in the market.</p><p>Analyst and financial columnist Mark Hulbert believes that this eager bargain-hunting momentum is more reminiscent of the \"slope of hope\" that bear markets usually fall, rather than the \"wall of worry\" that bull markets like to climb. Note that this is not to say that U.S. stocks cannot achieve an impressive rebound at current levels. If this is the case, it is more likely to be a bear market rally than the beginning of a new bull market.</p><p>Past bear markets have shown that few investors consider the possibility when a bear market does hit a bottom, which comes when investors won't even be paying attention because investors have become so frustrated that they throw in the towel, either treating any signs of market strength as a bear trap.</p><p>Obviously, the current sentiment on Wall Street does not conform to the characteristics of a bear market bottom. The development process of bear market psychology is similar to what psychologists call the five stages of grief, which are denial, anger, reduction of living expenses, frustration and acceptance.</p><p>Here's how they perform in the stock market:</p><p>Stage of Denial: During this initial stage, the prevailing view in the market is that weakness in the stock market is nothing more than a buying opportunity. Far from getting angry, investors have remained quite optimistic as the market's pullback provides an opportunity to buy stocks cheaper than if the bull market continues.</p><p>Fury Phase: As market pullbacks become too severe, denial becomes increasingly difficult to maintain. Investor sentiment eventually turned into anger as they complained about the unfairness of the divestment. A characteristic of this phase is that investors view the divestment as an insult to the individual, as if the market should care if the investor loses money.</p><p>Reducing living expenses phase: Investors redirect their energy to figuring out whether they can maintain their lifestyle in the event of a shock to their investment portfolio. Retirees reformulate their financial plans and give up some merchandise purchases or vacation expenses. Although these expenses are only part of their budget.</p><p>Frustration Phase: As the market continues to decline, people are beginning to realize that simply reducing expenses is not enough, and that major lifestyle changes are needed. Those approaching retirement are working longer hours than originally planned, and even more retirees are returning to work.</p><p>Acceptance stage: Investors throw in the towel, they succumb to the bear market and no longer even fantasize about when the bear market will end. They treat any sign of market strength as a stupid rally, enticing gullible people to lose more money in the next drop.</p><p><b>What stage is the US stock market now?</b></p><p>Mark Hulbert believes that the U.S. stock market has not exceeded the second stage. Although not all investors are at the same frequency, on the whole, the sentiment displayed by the market tends to think that the current correction is a buying opportunity, or that the current fragility of the market is basically unfair.</p><p>Sometimes, the information conveyed by the market is disorderly and confusing. At present, there are also signs of Wall Street institutions \"surrendering\" in the market, but this is not necessarily reliable. Mark Hulbert believes that when investors really admit defeat, no one will shout to admit defeat, but will be indifferent to the market and indifferent to other signals.</p><p>Of course, not all stock market declines will go through the above five stages, because not all adjustments will evolve into typical bear markets. These discussions are not to say that the market is bound to fall more. However, if optimists want the market to turn, they must wait until investors actually capitulate.</p><p></body></html></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>There are 5 stages of a bear market. At what stage is the US stock market now?</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nThere are 5 stages of a bear market. At what stage is the US stock market now?\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/99\">\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/c71e30d1317b4a5cb20a41998e10ac68);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">Wind万得 </p>\n<p class=\"h-time smaller\">2022-05-18 14:47</p>\n</div>\n</a>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><html><head></head><body>Is the U.S. stock bear market over? Judging from some classic indicators, it seems that there is not yet. The S&P 500 is now 16% below its all-time high, and the Nasdaq and Russell 2000 are still in bear market territory. However, the recent marginal improvement in the international environment has caused investors to focus on finding opportunities to enter the market, rather than worrying about another deep decline in the market.</p><p>Analyst and financial columnist Mark Hulbert believes that this eager bargain-hunting momentum is more reminiscent of the \"slope of hope\" that bear markets usually fall, rather than the \"wall of worry\" that bull markets like to climb. Note that this is not to say that U.S. stocks cannot achieve an impressive rebound at current levels. If this is the case, it is more likely to be a bear market rally than the beginning of a new bull market.</p><p>Past bear markets have shown that few investors consider the possibility when a bear market does hit a bottom, which comes when investors won't even be paying attention because investors have become so frustrated that they throw in the towel, either treating any signs of market strength as a bear trap.</p><p>Obviously, the current sentiment on Wall Street does not conform to the characteristics of a bear market bottom. The development process of bear market psychology is similar to what psychologists call the five stages of grief, which are denial, anger, reduction of living expenses, frustration and acceptance.</p><p>Here's how they perform in the stock market:</p><p>Stage of Denial: During this initial stage, the prevailing view in the market is that weakness in the stock market is nothing more than a buying opportunity. Far from getting angry, investors have remained quite optimistic as the market's pullback provides an opportunity to buy stocks cheaper than if the bull market continues.</p><p>Fury Phase: As market pullbacks become too severe, denial becomes increasingly difficult to maintain. Investor sentiment eventually turned into anger as they complained about the unfairness of the divestment. A characteristic of this phase is that investors view the divestment as an insult to the individual, as if the market should care if the investor loses money.</p><p>Reducing living expenses phase: Investors redirect their energy to figuring out whether they can maintain their lifestyle in the event of a shock to their investment portfolio. Retirees reformulate their financial plans and give up some merchandise purchases or vacation expenses. Although these expenses are only part of their budget.</p><p>Frustration Phase: As the market continues to decline, people are beginning to realize that simply reducing expenses is not enough, and that major lifestyle changes are needed. Those approaching retirement are working longer hours than originally planned, and even more retirees are returning to work.</p><p>Acceptance stage: Investors throw in the towel, they succumb to the bear market and no longer even fantasize about when the bear market will end. They treat any sign of market strength as a stupid rally, enticing gullible people to lose more money in the next drop.</p><p><b>What stage is the US stock market now?</b></p><p>Mark Hulbert believes that the U.S. stock market has not exceeded the second stage. Although not all investors are at the same frequency, on the whole, the sentiment displayed by the market tends to think that the current correction is a buying opportunity, or that the current fragility of the market is basically unfair.</p><p>Sometimes, the information conveyed by the market is disorderly and confusing. At present, there are also signs of Wall Street institutions \"surrendering\" in the market, but this is not necessarily reliable. Mark Hulbert believes that when investors really admit defeat, no one will shout to admit defeat, but will be indifferent to the market and indifferent to other signals.</p><p>Of course, not all stock market declines will go through the above five stages, because not all adjustments will evolve into typical bear markets. These discussions are not to say that the market is bound to fall more. However, if optimists want the market to turn, they must wait until investors actually capitulate.</p><p></body></html></p>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/144fcf63ccaceb7d59c371695c704fb3","relate_stocks":{".DJI":"道琼斯",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite"},"source_url":"","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1169142248","content_text":"美股熊市结束了吗？从一些经典指标看，似乎还没有。标普500指数现在比历史高点低16%，纳指和罗素2000依旧位于熊市区间。但近期国际环境的边际改善，使得投资者开始专注于寻找入场的机会，而不是担心市场再一次深跌。分析师、财经专栏作家Mark Hulbert认为，这种跃跃欲试的抄底气势，更让人想起熊市通常会下降的“希望斜坡”，而不是牛市喜欢爬的“担忧之墙”。注意，这并不是说，美股无法在当前水平上实现令人印象深刻的反弹。如果真是这样的话，它更有可能是一场熊市反弹，而不是一轮新的牛市行情的开始。过去的熊市显示，当熊市真的触底时，几乎没有投资者会考虑这种可能性，熊市底是在投资者甚至不会关注的时候出现的，因为投资者已经变得如此沮丧以至于认输了，要么将任何市场强势的迹象视为熊市陷阱。显然，华尔街当前的情绪，并不符合熊市底的特征。熊市心理学的发展过程类似于心理学家所说的悲伤的五个阶段，分别是否认、愤怒、缩减生活支出、沮丧和接受。以下是它们在股市中的表现：否认阶段：在这一初始阶段，市场流行的观点是，股市疲软只不过是一个买入机会。投资者非但没有感到愤怒，反而保持了相当乐观的态度，因为市场的回调提供了一个机会，可以以比牛市持续下去更便宜的价格购买股票。愤怒阶段：随着市场回调变得过于严重，否认变得越来越难以维持。投资者的情绪最终演变为愤怒，因为他们抱怨撤资的不公平。这一阶段的一个特点是，投资者将撤资视为对个人的侮辱，就好像市场应该关心投资者是否赔钱。缩减生活支出阶段：投资者将精力重新引导到，弄清楚自己是否能够在投资组合受到冲击的情况下，维持自己的生活方式上。退休人员重新制定他们的财务计划，放弃一些商品购买或者度假开销。尽管这些开销只是他们预算中的一部分。沮丧阶段：随着市场持续下滑，人们开始意识到仅仅减少开支是不够的，生活方式需要重大改变。接近退休的人的工作时间比原计划的要长，更有甚者退休人员重返工作岗位。接受阶段：投资者认输，他们屈服于熊市，甚至不再幻想熊市何时结束。他们把任何市场强势的迹象都视为一场愚蠢的反弹，诱使那些容易上当的人在下一轮下跌中损失更多的钱。美股现在到哪个阶段了？Mark Hulbert 认为，现在美股市场没有超过第二个阶段。虽然不是所有投资者都处在同一频率，但是整体上，市场展示的情绪倾向于认为现在的回调是一个买入的机会，或者认为市场目前呈现的脆弱基本是不公平的。有时候，市场传递的信息也是无序的，有迷惑性的。目前市场中，也出现华尔街机构”缴械投降“的迹象，但这并不一定是可靠的。Mark Hulbert 认为，投资者真正认输的时候，没有人会嚷嚷认输，而是对市场冷漠，对其他信号漠不关心。当然，并不是所有的股市下跌都会经历以上5各阶段，因为不是所有的调整都会演变为典型熊市。这些讨论也并不是说，市场必然会跌得更多。但是，乐观者想要市场转向，必须等到投资者真正投降。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{".SPX":0.9,".DJI":0.9,".IXIC":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1317,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9951826504,"gmtCreate":1673451869709,"gmtModify":1676538839366,"author":{"id":"3578273090742274","authorId":"3578273090742274","name":"Sinlin","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e26a5aacb13f0157a96e28fd565c12e5","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3578273090742274","idStr":"3578273090742274"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/AMZN\">$亚马逊(AMZN)$&nbsp;</a><v-v data-views=\"1\"></v-v>will see","listText":"<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/AMZN\">$亚马逊(AMZN)$&nbsp;</a><v-v data-views=\"1\"></v-v>will see","text":"$亚马逊(AMZN)$ will see","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9951826504","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":3256,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9007594383,"gmtCreate":1642933401247,"gmtModify":1676533758458,"author":{"id":"3578273090742274","authorId":"3578273090742274","name":"Sinlin","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e26a5aacb13f0157a96e28fd565c12e5","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3578273090742274","idStr":"3578273090742274"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"wow","listText":"wow","text":"wow","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9007594383","repostId":"1181967997","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":908,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9964077408,"gmtCreate":1670042610604,"gmtModify":1676538294664,"author":{"id":"3578273090742274","authorId":"3578273090742274","name":"Sinlin","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e26a5aacb13f0157a96e28fd565c12e5","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3578273090742274","idStr":"3578273090742274"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Sell then","listText":"Sell then","text":"Sell then","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9964077408","repostId":"2288043967","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"2288043967","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1669996089,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/2288043967?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2022-12-02 23:48","market":"sh","language":"zh","title":"JPMorgan Chase: Raised S&P Global (SPGI.N) price target to $410 from $380.","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2288043967","media":"媒体滚动","summary":"摩根大通：将标普全球(SPGI.N)目标价从380美元上调至410美元。","content":"<p><html><body><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/JPM\">JPMorgan Chase</a>: will<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/SPGI\">S&P Global</a>(SPGI.N) price target raised to $410 from $380.</body></html></p>","source":"sina_symbol","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>JPMorgan Chase: Raised S&P Global (SPGI.N) price target to $410 from $380.</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nJPMorgan Chase: Raised S&P Global (SPGI.N) price target to $410 from $380.\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">媒体滚动</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2022-12-02 23:48</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><html><body><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/JPM\">JPMorgan Chase</a>: will<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/SPGI\">S&P Global</a>(SPGI.N) price target raised to $410 from $380.</body></html></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> source：<a href=\"https://cj.sina.cn/article/normal_detail?url=https://finance.sina.com.cn/7x24/2022-12-02/doc-imqmmthc6855902.shtml\">媒体滚动</a></p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"SPGI":"标普全球"},"source_url":"https://cj.sina.cn/article/normal_detail?url=https://finance.sina.com.cn/7x24/2022-12-02/doc-imqmmthc6855902.shtml","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2288043967","content_text":"摩根大通：将标普全球(SPGI.N)目标价从380美元上调至410美元。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"SPGI":1}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2993,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9914672471,"gmtCreate":1665280962993,"gmtModify":1676537581163,"author":{"id":"3578273090742274","authorId":"3578273090742274","name":"Sinlin","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e26a5aacb13f0157a96e28fd565c12e5","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3578273090742274","idStr":"3578273090742274"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/.SPX\">$标普500(.SPX)$</a>2600？","listText":"<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/.SPX\">$标普500(.SPX)$</a>2600？","text":"$标普500(.SPX)$2600？","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9914672471","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2634,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9075331733,"gmtCreate":1658144319222,"gmtModify":1676536111831,"author":{"id":"3578273090742274","authorId":"3578273090742274","name":"Sinlin","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e26a5aacb13f0157a96e28fd565c12e5","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3578273090742274","idStr":"3578273090742274"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"wow","listText":"wow","text":"wow","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9075331733","repostId":"2252828739","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"2252828739","kind":"highlight","pubTimestamp":1658136215,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/2252828739?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2022-07-18 17:23","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"Morgan Stanley: Even if the United States escapes recession, U.S. stocks may continue to fall","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2252828739","media":"环球市场播报","summary":"华尔街的一位大空头表示，即使美国经济躲过衰退，美国股市可能也还会继续下跌。“逆趋势的上涨可能还会继续，但不要误会，即使我们躲过了可能性正在上升的经济衰退，我们也不认为熊市已经结束，”Michael J","content":"<p><html><head></head><body>A big bear on Wall Street said that even if the U.S. economy escapes recession, the U.S. stock market may continue to fall.</p><p>\"The counter-trend rally may continue, but don't get me wrong, even if we escape a recession whose odds are rising, we don't think the bear market is over,\" Michael J. Wilson wrote in a note.</p><p>U.S. stocks have tumbled this year, pushing the S&P 500 into a bear market amid concerns that hot inflation and a hawkish Federal Reserve will plunge the economy into recession.<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MS\">Morgan Stanley</a>The model shows that the probability of an economic recession continues to rise, with a 36% probability of a recession in the next 12 months, while other warning signs include rising claims for unemployment benefits and fewer job openings.</p><p>Given that the Fed expects another 75 basis point rate hike next week, investors are now turning to corporate earnings season to see if margins are resilient amid surging prices and pessimism.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0ba9cb658ad467b60701c7b1b3cd1a12\" tg-width=\"550\" tg-height=\"313\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p>Goldman Sachs strategist David J. Kostin said he expects the weak macroeconomic outlook to threaten corporate profitability that has fallen from record highs. Profit margins and borrowing costs are two of the main risk factors to equity returns today, the strategist wrote in a July 15 note. Equity returns have held up well over the past year despite issues such as rising input costs, the omicron pandemic, and supply chain disruptions.</p><p>Morgan Stanley's Wilson has been one of the most determined stock market bears this year and accurately predicted the recent market decline. He also said he was \"skeptical\" of expectations that margin pressures will ease after the second quarter.</p><p>\"Continued labor, raw material, inventory and transportation cost pressures coupled with decelerating demand pose risks to margins that are not reflected in consensus expectations,\" Wilson said. He said that even if the revenue growth forecast remains unchanged, a return to the net profit margin level to pre-epidemic levels means that forward earnings per share will be hit by 10%.</p><p>On the other hand,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/JPM\">JPMorgan Chase</a>Investors can turn a blind eye to more challenging earnings-related news during the summer, according to strategists of. Strategists such as Mislav Matejka said in the report that stocks typically peak on or before the earnings trough, and the market may be approaching the point when bad data starts to be seen as good news.</p><p></body></html></p>","source":"highlight_sina","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Morgan Stanley: Even if the United States escapes recession, U.S. stocks may continue to fall</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nMorgan Stanley: Even if the United States escapes recession, U.S. stocks may continue to fall\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">环球市场播报</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2022-07-18 17:23</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><html><head></head><body>A big bear on Wall Street said that even if the U.S. economy escapes recession, the U.S. stock market may continue to fall.</p><p>\"The counter-trend rally may continue, but don't get me wrong, even if we escape a recession whose odds are rising, we don't think the bear market is over,\" Michael J. Wilson wrote in a note.</p><p>U.S. stocks have tumbled this year, pushing the S&P 500 into a bear market amid concerns that hot inflation and a hawkish Federal Reserve will plunge the economy into recession.<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MS\">Morgan Stanley</a>The model shows that the probability of an economic recession continues to rise, with a 36% probability of a recession in the next 12 months, while other warning signs include rising claims for unemployment benefits and fewer job openings.</p><p>Given that the Fed expects another 75 basis point rate hike next week, investors are now turning to corporate earnings season to see if margins are resilient amid surging prices and pessimism.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0ba9cb658ad467b60701c7b1b3cd1a12\" tg-width=\"550\" tg-height=\"313\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p>Goldman Sachs strategist David J. Kostin said he expects the weak macroeconomic outlook to threaten corporate profitability that has fallen from record highs. Profit margins and borrowing costs are two of the main risk factors to equity returns today, the strategist wrote in a July 15 note. Equity returns have held up well over the past year despite issues such as rising input costs, the omicron pandemic, and supply chain disruptions.</p><p>Morgan Stanley's Wilson has been one of the most determined stock market bears this year and accurately predicted the recent market decline. He also said he was \"skeptical\" of expectations that margin pressures will ease after the second quarter.</p><p>\"Continued labor, raw material, inventory and transportation cost pressures coupled with decelerating demand pose risks to margins that are not reflected in consensus expectations,\" Wilson said. He said that even if the revenue growth forecast remains unchanged, a return to the net profit margin level to pre-epidemic levels means that forward earnings per share will be hit by 10%.</p><p>On the other hand,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/JPM\">JPMorgan Chase</a>Investors can turn a blind eye to more challenging earnings-related news during the summer, according to strategists of. Strategists such as Mislav Matejka said in the report that stocks typically peak on or before the earnings trough, and the market may be approaching the point when bad data starts to be seen as good news.</p><p></body></html></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> source：<a href=\"https://finance.sina.com.cn/stock/usstock/c/2022-07-18/doc-imizirav4167808.shtml\">环球市场播报</a></p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/347452cc99fb488c45ccd900fcf3aa20","relate_stocks":{".DJI":"道琼斯"},"source_url":"https://finance.sina.com.cn/stock/usstock/c/2022-07-18/doc-imizirav4167808.shtml","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/b0d1b7e8843deea78cc308b15114de44","article_id":"2252828739","content_text":"华尔街的一位大空头表示，即使美国经济躲过衰退，美国股市可能也还会继续下跌。“逆趋势的上涨可能还会继续，但不要误会，即使我们躲过了可能性正在上升的经济衰退，我们也不认为熊市已经结束，”Michael J． Wilson在一份报告中写道。美国股市今年大跌，推动标普500指数进入熊市，因为市场担心火爆的通胀率和鹰派的美联储会让经济陷入衰退。摩根士丹利的模型显示经济衰退的可能性继续上升，未来12个月内发生衰退的概率为36%，而其他警告信号包括申领失业救济的人数上升以及职位空缺减少。鉴于美联储预计下周将再加息75个基点，投资者现在转向了企业财报季，看看在价格飙升和悲观情绪下，利润率是否具有韧性。高盛集团策略师David J． Kostin表示，他预计疲弱的宏观经济前景将威胁已经从纪录高位回落的企业盈利能力。这位策略师在7月 15日的报告中写道，利润率和借贷成本如今是股票回报率面临的两个主要风险因素。尽管面对投入成本上升、omicron疫情和供应链中断等问题，但股票回报率在过去一年中一直保持良好。摩根士丹利的Wilson是今年最坚定的股市空头之一，并准确预测到最近市场的下跌。他还表示，他对利润率压力将在第二季度之后有所缓解的预期持“怀疑态度”。“持续的劳动力、原材料、库存和运输成本压力再加上需求减速，这些因素对利润率构成的风险并未反映在市场普遍预期中，”Wilson说。他表示，即使收入增速预估保持必变，但净利润率水平回到疫情前的水平意味着远期每股收益将受到10%的冲击。另一方面，摩根大通的策略师们表示，投资者可以对夏季期间更具挑战性的盈利相关新闻视而不见。Mislav Matejka等策略师在报告中表示，股市通常会在盈利低谷到来或之前见顶，市场可能正在接近坏数据开始被视为好消息的时点。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{".DJI":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":978,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9075331662,"gmtCreate":1658144270756,"gmtModify":1676536111847,"author":{"id":"3578273090742274","authorId":"3578273090742274","name":"Sinlin","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e26a5aacb13f0157a96e28fd565c12e5","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3578273090742274","idStr":"3578273090742274"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"👌🏻","listText":"👌🏻","text":"👌🏻","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9075331662","repostId":"1152909637","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1269,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9076562535,"gmtCreate":1657870691827,"gmtModify":1676536075558,"author":{"id":"3578273090742274","authorId":"3578273090742274","name":"Sinlin","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e26a5aacb13f0157a96e28fd565c12e5","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3578273090742274","idStr":"3578273090742274"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"nice","listText":"nice","text":"nice","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9076562535","repostId":"1174033197","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"1174033197","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1657854563,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1174033197?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2022-07-15 11:09","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"Behind the overnight reversal of U.S. stocks: Former officials predict the Fed's \"turn\" time!","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1174033197","media":"华尔街见闻","summary":"华尔街“最懂美联储”的分析师：明年下半年不仅降息，还会提前结束缩表！","content":"<p><html><head></head><body>Author: Ye Zhen</p><p>U.S. stocks once again staged a V-shaped reversal overnight, from a deep decline to recovering most of the lost ground, and the Nasdaq closed up in a thrilling way, which may be related to a report by Bank of America's top interest rate strategist.</p><p>On Thursday, under the expectation of strong rate hike, the three major U.S. stock indexes collectively fell by more than 2% in open low. However, the three major indexes rebounded strongly in the afternoon. The S&P finally closed down 0.3%, the Dow closed down 0.46%, and the Nasdaq closed up 0.03%.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1d2deed31b461495ac0cd1a610806c8d\" tg-width=\"1024\" tg-height=\"575\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>During the day, two senior hawkish officials of the Federal Reserve spoke out successively, easing the market's expectation of 100 basis point rate hike in July, which boosted the rebound of U.S. stocks to a certain extent. However, many front-line traders in the market believe that it was Bank of America's top interest rate strategist and former New York Fed analyst Marc Cabana that really led to the overnight reversal of U.S. stocks. The report believes that the Fed will be forced to end its tightening policy much earlier than expected.</p><p>Cabana is the head of U.S. interest rate strategy at Bank of America Global Research and before joining Bank of America, he was an officer in the New York Fed Markets Division, spent nearly nine years in the open market trading department and was closely involved in the design and implementation of a range of asset purchases/quantitative easing initiatives during the financial crisis.</p><p>Cabana's forecast accuracy of monetary policy is very high. He predicted it a few days before the Federal Reserve bought corporate bonds, which also makes him enjoy a high reputation on Wall Street. His views on Fed policy, interest rates and financial supervision always attract widespread attention and influence.</p><p>So what exactly does Cabana's latest report say?</p><p>In the second half of next year, the Fed will not only cut interest rates, but also end the shrinking balance sheet early</p><p>On Thursday, after the Bank of America equity strategy team lowered its S&P year-end target from 4,500 to 3,600, the Cabana team released a report,<b>Significantly revised U.S. interest rate forecasts downward, expecting the Fed to not only cut interest rates in the second half of next year, but also end its shrinking balance sheet early.</b></p><p>On the same day, the Bank of America macro team lowered its U.S. economic forecast to reflect this year's recession, and lowered the Fed's Federal Funds rate path. The final Federal Funds rate forecast was lowered from 4.00-4.25% to 3.25-3.50%, and the Fed is expected to cut interest rates by 100 basis points between September 23 and June 24.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4cfa16d6972770bc5deaa91c186de8f8\" tg-width=\"1024\" tg-height=\"357\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>The Cabana team accordingly lowered its forecast for U.S. bond yields, lowering its 10-year US Treasury yields expectation due 2022 from 3.50% to 2.75%, and its 10-year US Treasury yields expectation due 2023 from 3.25% to 2.50%, and said:</p><p>Given the expectation that the Federal Reserve will cut interest rates in the second half of 23 and the first half of 24, our new forecast is very optimistic relative to the market implied forward rate. Our previous rate forecast initially reflected an optimistic bias relative to forward rates, but the latest revision is more optimistic.<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/44553abdeabbffb36eb5602065c594bb\" tg-width=\"710\" tg-height=\"327\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/20cc791e11d977c8134517896a90ecaf\" tg-width=\"1024\" tg-height=\"208\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/>Cabana also expects the Fed to cut interest rates in the second half of next year at the end of the shrinking balance sheet:</p><p>Because interest rate cuts and shrinking balance sheet send contradictory policy signals, we expect the Fed to cut interest rates and stop shrinking balance sheet at the same time to simplify policy communication; The Fed is unlikely to use shrinking balance sheet to tighten while loosening by cutting interest rates. Cabana said that actually the Fed did just that in 2019, when it began cutting interest rates in July and simultaneously announced the halt of shrinking balance sheet. Of course, it is also possible that the Fed chooses not to follow the 2019 bundle strategy, but Cabana believes this is unlikely. He added some reasons:</p><p>The Fed will only \"normalize\" front-end interest rates after a period of rising inflation, and the Fed's balance sheet may still be far from reserve-short. We see the logic of each argument, but believe it is difficult to prove it beforehand. We expect the Fed to choose the simplest way of communication: stop shrinking balance sheet when it cuts rates. Cabana went on to point out that an earlier end to the shrinking balance sheet would have several implications for U.S. debt:</p><p>Due to more cash/less collateral in the financial system, there is less pressure on short-term U.S. debt depreciation, there may be more coupon reductions due to lower financing needs, and secondary market disruption due to the Fed's resumption of purchases and reinvestments. Each will tend to favor the spread between U.S. bond yields and secured overnight financing rates (UST-SOFR spreads) tending to be wider on the curve. As for what happens to the Fed's balance sheet, Cabana said:</p><p>Compared to our previous forecast, the Fed stopping its shrinking balance sheet in September 2023 would result in a $1 trillion reduction in the balance sheet compared to the previous forecast of the end of 2024. An earlier end of the shrinking balance sheet would result in a $780 billion reduction in U.S. debt financing needs, plus an additional $350 billion in the Federal Reserve's demand for U.S. debt.<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/24a9f70fabfaae1c371e524a8d0a425c\" tg-width=\"1024\" tg-height=\"362\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></body></html></p>","source":"highlight_wallstreetcn","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Behind the overnight reversal of U.S. stocks: Former officials predict the Fed's \"turn\" time!</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nBehind the overnight reversal of U.S. stocks: Former officials predict the Fed's \"turn\" time!\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">华尔街见闻</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2022-07-15 11:09</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><html><head></head><body>Author: Ye Zhen</p><p>U.S. stocks once again staged a V-shaped reversal overnight, from a deep decline to recovering most of the lost ground, and the Nasdaq closed up in a thrilling way, which may be related to a report by Bank of America's top interest rate strategist.</p><p>On Thursday, under the expectation of strong rate hike, the three major U.S. stock indexes collectively fell by more than 2% in open low. However, the three major indexes rebounded strongly in the afternoon. The S&P finally closed down 0.3%, the Dow closed down 0.46%, and the Nasdaq closed up 0.03%.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1d2deed31b461495ac0cd1a610806c8d\" tg-width=\"1024\" tg-height=\"575\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>During the day, two senior hawkish officials of the Federal Reserve spoke out successively, easing the market's expectation of 100 basis point rate hike in July, which boosted the rebound of U.S. stocks to a certain extent. However, many front-line traders in the market believe that it was Bank of America's top interest rate strategist and former New York Fed analyst Marc Cabana that really led to the overnight reversal of U.S. stocks. The report believes that the Fed will be forced to end its tightening policy much earlier than expected.</p><p>Cabana is the head of U.S. interest rate strategy at Bank of America Global Research and before joining Bank of America, he was an officer in the New York Fed Markets Division, spent nearly nine years in the open market trading department and was closely involved in the design and implementation of a range of asset purchases/quantitative easing initiatives during the financial crisis.</p><p>Cabana's forecast accuracy of monetary policy is very high. He predicted it a few days before the Federal Reserve bought corporate bonds, which also makes him enjoy a high reputation on Wall Street. His views on Fed policy, interest rates and financial supervision always attract widespread attention and influence.</p><p>So what exactly does Cabana's latest report say?</p><p>In the second half of next year, the Fed will not only cut interest rates, but also end the shrinking balance sheet early</p><p>On Thursday, after the Bank of America equity strategy team lowered its S&P year-end target from 4,500 to 3,600, the Cabana team released a report,<b>Significantly revised U.S. interest rate forecasts downward, expecting the Fed to not only cut interest rates in the second half of next year, but also end its shrinking balance sheet early.</b></p><p>On the same day, the Bank of America macro team lowered its U.S. economic forecast to reflect this year's recession, and lowered the Fed's Federal Funds rate path. The final Federal Funds rate forecast was lowered from 4.00-4.25% to 3.25-3.50%, and the Fed is expected to cut interest rates by 100 basis points between September 23 and June 24.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4cfa16d6972770bc5deaa91c186de8f8\" tg-width=\"1024\" tg-height=\"357\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>The Cabana team accordingly lowered its forecast for U.S. bond yields, lowering its 10-year US Treasury yields expectation due 2022 from 3.50% to 2.75%, and its 10-year US Treasury yields expectation due 2023 from 3.25% to 2.50%, and said:</p><p>Given the expectation that the Federal Reserve will cut interest rates in the second half of 23 and the first half of 24, our new forecast is very optimistic relative to the market implied forward rate. Our previous rate forecast initially reflected an optimistic bias relative to forward rates, but the latest revision is more optimistic.<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/44553abdeabbffb36eb5602065c594bb\" tg-width=\"710\" tg-height=\"327\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/20cc791e11d977c8134517896a90ecaf\" tg-width=\"1024\" tg-height=\"208\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/>Cabana also expects the Fed to cut interest rates in the second half of next year at the end of the shrinking balance sheet:</p><p>Because interest rate cuts and shrinking balance sheet send contradictory policy signals, we expect the Fed to cut interest rates and stop shrinking balance sheet at the same time to simplify policy communication; The Fed is unlikely to use shrinking balance sheet to tighten while loosening by cutting interest rates. Cabana said that actually the Fed did just that in 2019, when it began cutting interest rates in July and simultaneously announced the halt of shrinking balance sheet. Of course, it is also possible that the Fed chooses not to follow the 2019 bundle strategy, but Cabana believes this is unlikely. He added some reasons:</p><p>The Fed will only \"normalize\" front-end interest rates after a period of rising inflation, and the Fed's balance sheet may still be far from reserve-short. We see the logic of each argument, but believe it is difficult to prove it beforehand. We expect the Fed to choose the simplest way of communication: stop shrinking balance sheet when it cuts rates. Cabana went on to point out that an earlier end to the shrinking balance sheet would have several implications for U.S. debt:</p><p>Due to more cash/less collateral in the financial system, there is less pressure on short-term U.S. debt depreciation, there may be more coupon reductions due to lower financing needs, and secondary market disruption due to the Fed's resumption of purchases and reinvestments. Each will tend to favor the spread between U.S. bond yields and secured overnight financing rates (UST-SOFR spreads) tending to be wider on the curve. As for what happens to the Fed's balance sheet, Cabana said:</p><p>Compared to our previous forecast, the Fed stopping its shrinking balance sheet in September 2023 would result in a $1 trillion reduction in the balance sheet compared to the previous forecast of the end of 2024. An earlier end of the shrinking balance sheet would result in a $780 billion reduction in U.S. debt financing needs, plus an additional $350 billion in the Federal Reserve's demand for U.S. debt.<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/24a9f70fabfaae1c371e524a8d0a425c\" tg-width=\"1024\" tg-height=\"362\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></body></html></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> source：<a href=\"https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3664863\">华尔街见闻</a></p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2578fef036607345dce47cc401e172a3","relate_stocks":{".DJI":"道琼斯"},"source_url":"https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3664863","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/cc96873d3d23ee6ac10685520df9c100","article_id":"1174033197","content_text":"作者：叶桢隔夜美股再度上演V型大逆转，从深跌到收复大部分失地，纳指更是惊险收涨，而这背后或与美国银行顶级利率策略师的一份报告有关。周四，在强势的加息预期下，美股三大股指集体低开，一度均跌超过2%。但午后三大指数强势反弹，标普最终收跌0.3%，道指收跌0.46%，纳指收涨0.03%。日内两名美联储鹰派高官先后发声，缓和了市场对7月100基点加息的预期，一定程度上助推了美股反弹，但很多市场一线交易员都认为真正导致隔夜美股大逆转的是美国银行顶级利率策略师、前纽约联储分析师Marc Cabana的一份报告，该报告认为，美联储将被迫比预期早得多地结束紧缩政策。Cabana是美国银行全球研究的美国利率策略主管，在加入美银之前，他是纽约联储市场部的一名官员，在公开市场交易部门工作了近9年，并在金融危机期间密切参与了一系列资产购买/量化宽松计划的设计和实施。Cabana对货币政策的预测准确率非常高，曾在美联储购买公司债的前几天就预测到了，这也使得他在华尔街享有很高的声望，他对美联储政策、利率和金融监管的看法总是能引起广泛关注和影响。那么Cabana的最新报告究竟说了什么？明年下半年，美联储不仅会降息，还会提前结束缩表周四，在美银股票策略团队下调标普年终目标位从4500点到3600点后，Cabana团队发布了一份报告，大幅向下修正美国利率预测，预计美联储明年下半年不仅会降息，还会提前结束缩表。同一天，美银宏观团队下调美国经济预测以反映今年衰退，并且下调了美联储联邦基金利率路径，对于最终联邦基金利率预期从4.00-4.25%下调至3.25-3.50%，并且预期美联储将在明年9月23日至6月24日期间降息100个基点。Cabana团队相应地下调了对美债收益率的预期，将2022年到期的10年期美债利率预期从3.50%下调至2.75%，2023年到期的10年期美债利率预期从3.25%下调至2.50%，并表示：鉴于对美联储在23年下半年和24年上半年降息的预期，我们的新预测相对市场隐含远期利率来说非常地乐观。我们之前的利率预测最初反映了相对远期利率的乐观倾向，但最新修正则更加乐观。Cabana还预计美联储明年下半年将在缩表结束时降息：因为降息和缩表传递的是相互矛盾的政策信号，我们预计美联储降息同时将停止缩表，以简化政策沟通；美联储不太可能在通过降息来宽松的同时，采用缩表来紧缩。Cabana表示，实际上美联储在2019年就是这样做的，当时美联储在7月开始降息，并同时宣布停止缩表。当然美联储也有可能选择不遵循2019年的束策略，但Cabana认为这是不太可能的，他补充了一些理由：美联储只有在一段时间的通胀上升后才会将前端利率\"正常化\"，美联储的资产负债表可能仍远未达到储备短缺的程度。我们看到了每个论点的逻辑，但相信很难在事前证明。我们预计美联储会选择最简单的沟通方式：在降息时停止缩表。Cabana接着指出，较早的结束缩表会对美债产生几个影响:由于金融系统中有更多现金/更少的抵押品，减少了短期美债贬值压力，由于融资需求降低，可能会有更多的息票减少，以及由于美联储重新开始购买和再投资而导致的二级市场混乱减少。每一种都将倾向于偏向美债收益率和担保隔夜融资利率的息差（UST-SOFR spreads） 在曲线上趋于更广。至于美联储的资产负债表会发生什么变化，Cabana表示：与我们之前的预测相比，美联储于2023年9月停止缩表将导致资产负债表较之前预测的2024年底结束的情况减少1万亿美元。缩表更早结束将导致减少7800亿美元的美债融资需求，外加美联储对美债的3500亿美元额外需求。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{".DJI":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":992,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9016486715,"gmtCreate":1649219337928,"gmtModify":1676534472864,"author":{"id":"3578273090742274","authorId":"3578273090742274","name":"Sinlin","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e26a5aacb13f0157a96e28fd565c12e5","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3578273090742274","idStr":"3578273090742274"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"en","listText":"en","text":"en","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9016486715","repostId":"2225536464","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":756,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0}],"lives":[]}