witchmania personal page - To The Moon

witchmania

witchmania

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2021-08-11

Wanne buyyy but so hard to buy in. ?

2021-07-15

when's the dividend coming againnn?

2021-07-15

actually my thoughts too! But I didnt hold much. Now it's a bit too step i feel.

@阿嬷手作:$PROPNEX LIMITED(OYY.SI)$this counter will be the next iFast.$IFAST CORPORATION LTD.(AIY.SI)$

2021-06-15

$Aztech Gbl(8AZ.SI)$ wonder if the fall was it because it is nearer to dividend payment date? ?

2021-06-11

wonder what's people take for the stock?

2021-05-26

thoughts on this anybody?

2021-05-16

jus wondering if holder out there are choosing dividend in the form or shares or cash. If shares, why?! ??

2021-05-14

What are your take?

2021-04-14

foods for thoughts

2021-04-08

Anyone can share of the impact with the spin off?

Sorry, the original content has been removed

2021-04-08

Any thoughts on this?

2021-04-08

thoughts?

2021-04-06

???

Opinion: Financial crises get triggered about every 10 years — Archegos might be right on time

2021-04-05

worth a read

Sorry, the original content has been removed

2021-04-04

Technology stocks

Sorry, the original content has been removed

2021-04-04

Great ariticle, would you like to share it?

Sorry, the original content has been removed

2021-04-03

is it something that can be consider? hmmm

2021-04-03

Is crash and correction the same meaning in the article?

How Likely Is a Stock Market Crash?

2021-04-01

???

Sorry, the original content has been removed

2021-04-01

A kind of investing one can look into, because it's really value adding

Sorry, the original content has been removed

Go to Tiger App to see more news

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But I didnt hold much. Now it's a bit too step i feel.&nbsp;","listText":"actually my thoughts too! But I didnt hold much. Now it's a bit too step i feel.&nbsp;","text":"actually my thoughts too! But I didnt hold much. Now it's a bit too step i feel.","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/144443357","repostId":"144858315","repostType":1,"repost":{"id":144858315,"gmtCreate":1626276312837,"gmtModify":1703757018498,"author":{"id":"3561164848573536","authorId":"3561164848573536","name":"阿嬷手作","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/583962c9c304bc46d852891d0ef53de4","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3561164848573536","idStr":"3561164848573536"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/OYY.SI\">$PROPNEX LIMITED(OYY.SI)$</a>this counter will be the next iFast.<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AIY.SI\">$IFAST CORPORATION LTD.(AIY.SI)$</a>","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/OYY.SI\">$PROPNEX LIMITED(OYY.SI)$</a>this counter will be the next iFast.<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AIY.SI\">$IFAST CORPORATION LTD.(AIY.SI)$</a>","text":"$PROPNEX LIMITED(OYY.SI)$this counter will be the next iFast.$IFAST CORPORATION LTD.(AIY.SI)$","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/144858315","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":0,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1822,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":187957836,"gmtCreate":1623736860625,"gmtModify":1704210001022,"author":{"id":"3579134724593969","authorId":"3579134724593969","name":"witchmania","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/56e8b4d72db625533b44db034eeff089","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3579134724593969","idStr":"3579134724593969"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/8AZ.SI\">$Aztech Gbl(8AZ.SI)$</a>&nbsp;wonder if the fall was it because it is nearer to dividend payment date? ?","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/8AZ.SI\">$Aztech Gbl(8AZ.SI)$</a>&nbsp;wonder if the fall was it because it is nearer to dividend payment date? ?","text":"$Aztech Gbl(8AZ.SI)$ wonder if the fall was it because it is nearer to dividend payment date? ?","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/187957836","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2491,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":188351174,"gmtCreate":1623422328698,"gmtModify":1704203331405,"author":{"id":"3579134724593969","authorId":"3579134724593969","name":"witchmania","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/56e8b4d72db625533b44db034eeff089","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3579134724593969","idStr":"3579134724593969"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"wonder what's people take for the stock?&nbsp;","listText":"wonder what's people take for the stock?&nbsp;","text":"wonder what's people take for the stock?","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9ba3007f6ac74ea082898be3d0c8000a","width":"1080","height":"2529"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/188351174","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1582,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":136247727,"gmtCreate":1622024052569,"gmtModify":1704366274480,"author":{"id":"3579134724593969","authorId":"3579134724593969","name":"witchmania","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/56e8b4d72db625533b44db034eeff089","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3579134724593969","idStr":"3579134724593969"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"thoughts on this anybody?&nbsp;","listText":"thoughts on this anybody?&nbsp;","text":"thoughts on this anybody?","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9cb9b1e3967309232eef8224dc65354a","width":"1080","height":"2529"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/136247727","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2055,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":192895719,"gmtCreate":1621173487231,"gmtModify":1704353611336,"author":{"id":"3579134724593969","authorId":"3579134724593969","name":"witchmania","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/56e8b4d72db625533b44db034eeff089","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3579134724593969","idStr":"3579134724593969"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"jus wondering if holder out there are choosing dividend in the form or shares or cash. If shares, why?! ??","listText":"jus wondering if holder out there are choosing dividend in the form or shares or cash. If shares, why?! ??","text":"jus wondering if holder out there are choosing dividend in the form or shares or cash. If shares, why?! ??","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ddcf11410f8500aeb08f995ed5267c43","width":"1080","height":"2529"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/192895719","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1882,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":198289654,"gmtCreate":1620961302778,"gmtModify":1704351194066,"author":{"id":"3579134724593969","authorId":"3579134724593969","name":"witchmania","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/56e8b4d72db625533b44db034eeff089","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3579134724593969","idStr":"3579134724593969"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"What are your take?&nbsp;","listText":"What are your take?&nbsp;","text":"What are your take?","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/110aae7240e7833cf8cdf7fe113c5284","width":"1080","height":"2529"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/198289654","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1967,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":344500667,"gmtCreate":1618412821359,"gmtModify":1704710516096,"author":{"id":"3579134724593969","authorId":"3579134724593969","name":"witchmania","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/56e8b4d72db625533b44db034eeff089","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3579134724593969","idStr":"3579134724593969"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"foods for thoughts&nbsp;","listText":"foods for thoughts&nbsp;","text":"foods for thoughts","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a93a246bcd2c1785b485ae87d3db159d","width":"1080","height":"2529"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/344500667","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2007,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":341272001,"gmtCreate":1617837587203,"gmtModify":1704703672428,"author":{"id":"3579134724593969","authorId":"3579134724593969","name":"witchmania","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/56e8b4d72db625533b44db034eeff089","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3579134724593969","idStr":"3579134724593969"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Anyone can share of the impact with the spin off?&nbsp;","listText":"Anyone can share of the impact with the spin off?&nbsp;","text":"Anyone can share of the impact with the spin off?","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/341272001","repostId":"2124758025","repostType":2,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1969,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":341278090,"gmtCreate":1617837414710,"gmtModify":1704703669312,"author":{"id":"3579134724593969","authorId":"3579134724593969","name":"witchmania","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/56e8b4d72db625533b44db034eeff089","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3579134724593969","idStr":"3579134724593969"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Any thoughts on this?&nbsp;","listText":"Any thoughts on this?&nbsp;","text":"Any thoughts on this?","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/38e7810b6d2db664c44100487148e4e6","width":"1080","height":"1822"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/341278090","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1083,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":341644136,"gmtCreate":1617811849225,"gmtModify":1704703528380,"author":{"id":"3579134724593969","authorId":"3579134724593969","name":"witchmania","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/56e8b4d72db625533b44db034eeff089","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3579134724593969","idStr":"3579134724593969"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"thoughts?&nbsp;","listText":"thoughts?&nbsp;","text":"thoughts?","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a7affa30c3d5c8df375e0895128a1ff0","width":"1080","height":"1822"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/341644136","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":774,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":343604860,"gmtCreate":1617709887750,"gmtModify":1704702047095,"author":{"id":"3579134724593969","authorId":"3579134724593969","name":"witchmania","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/56e8b4d72db625533b44db034eeff089","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3579134724593969","idStr":"3579134724593969"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"???","listText":"???","text":"???","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/343604860","repostId":"1101907559","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1101907559","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1617672655,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1101907559?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2021-04-06 09:30","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Opinion: Financial crises get triggered about every 10 years — Archegos might be right on time","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1101907559","media":"marketwatch","summary":"No one, for now, can say for sure that the so-called family office’s billions in investment losses won’t spread.Financial crises are never quite the same. During the late 1980s, nearly a third of the nation’s savings and loan associations failed, ending with a taxpayer bailout — in 2021 terms — of about $265 billion.In 1997-1998, financial crises in Asia and Russia led to the near meltdown of the largest hedge fund in the U.S. —Long-Term Capital Management. Its reach and operating practices were","content":"<blockquote>\n <b>No one, for now, can say for sure that the so-called family office’s billions in investment losses won’t spread.</b>\n</blockquote>\n<p>Financial crises are never quite the same. During the late 1980s, nearly a third of the nation’s savings and loan associations failed, ending with a taxpayer bailout — in 2021 terms — of about $265 billion.</p>\n<p>In 1997-1998, financial crises in Asia and Russia led to the near meltdown of the largest hedge fund in the U.S. —Long-Term Capital Management(LTCM). Its reach and operating practices were such that Federal Reserve Chairman Alan Greenspan said that when LTCM failed, “he had never seen anything in his lifetime that compared to the terror” he felt. LTCM was deemed “too big to fail,” and he engineered a bailout by 14 major U.S. financial institutions.</p>\n<p>Exactly a decade later, too much leverage by some of those very institutions, and the bursting of a U.S. real estate bubble, led to the near collapse of the U.S. financial system. Once again, big banks were deemed too big to fail and taxpayers came to the rescue.</p>\n<p>The trend? Every 10 years or so, and they all look different.&nbsp;Are we in the early stages of a new crisis now, with the blowup at the family office Archegos Capital Management LP?</p>\n<p>A family office, for the uninitiated, is a private wealth management vehicle for the ultra-wealthy. Here’s what I mean by ultra-wealthy: Consulting firm EY estimates there are some 10,000 family offices globally, but manage, says a separate estimate by market research firm Campden Research, nearly $6 trillion. That $6 trillion is likely far higher now given that it’s based on 2019 data.</p>\n<p><b>Unregulated money managers</b></p>\n<p>Here’s the potential danger. Family offices generally aren’t regulated. The 1940 Investment Advisers Act says firms with 15 clients or fewer don’t have to register with the Securities and Exchange Commission. What this means is that trillions of dollars are in play and no one can really say who’s running the money, what it’s invested in, how much leverage is being used, and what kind of counterparty risk may exist. (Counterparty risk is the probability that one party involved in a financial transaction could default on a contractual obligation to someone else.)</p>\n<p>This appears to be the case with Archegos. The firm bet heavily on certain Chinese stocks, including e-commerce player&nbsp;Vipshop Holdings&nbsp;Ltd.VIPS,-1.19%,U.S.-listed Chinese tutoring company&nbsp;GSX Techedu&nbsp;Inc.GSX,-10.63%and U.S. media companiesViacomCBS&nbsp;Inc.VIAC,-3.90%and&nbsp;Discovery&nbsp;Inc.DISCA,-3.86%,among others. Share prices have tumbled lately, sparking large sales — some $30 billion — by Archegos.</p>\n<p>The problem is that only about a third of that, or $10 billion, was its own money. We now know that Archegos worked with some of the biggest names on Wall Street, including&nbsp;Credit Suisse Group AGCS,+1.59%,UBS Group AGUBS,+1.01%,Goldman Sachs Group Inc.GS,-1.25%,&nbsp;Morgan StanleyMS,-0.28%,Deutsche Bank AGDB,+0.74%and Nomura Holdings Inc.&nbsp;NMR,+1.87%.</p>\n<p>But since family offices are largely allowed to operate unregulated, who’s to say how much money is really involved here and what the extent of market risk is? My colleague Mark DeCambre&nbsp;reported last week that Archegos’ true exposures to bad trades could actuallybe closer to $100 billion.</p>\n<p><b>Danger of counterparty risk</b></p>\n<p>This is where counterparty risk comes in. As Archegos’ bets went south, the above banks — looking at losses of their own — hit the firm with margin calls. Deutsche quickly dumped about $4 billion in holdings, while Goldman and Morgan Stanley are also said to have unwound their positions, perhaps limiting their downside.</p>\n<p>So is this a financial crisis? It doesn’t appear to be. Even so, the Securities and Exchange Commission has opened a preliminary investigation into Archegos and its founder, Bill Hwang.</p>\n<p>One peer, Tom Lee, the research chief of Fundstrat Global Advisors, calls Hwang one of the “top 10 of the best investment minds” he knows.</p>\n<p>But federal regulators may have a lesser opinion. In 2012, Hwang’s former hedge fund, Tiger Asia Management, pleaded guilty and paid more than $60 million in penalties after it was accused of trading on illegal tips about Chinese banks. The SEC banned Hwang from managing money on behalf of clients — essentially booting him from the hedge fund industry. So Hwang opened Archegos, and again, family offices aren’t generally aren’t regulated.</p>\n<p><b>Yellen on the case</b></p>\n<p>This issue is on Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen’s radar. She said last week that greater oversight of these private corners of the financial industry is needed. The Financial Stability Oversight Council (FSOC), which she oversees, has revived a task force to help agencies better “share data, identify risks and work to strengthen our financial system.”</p>\n<p>Most financial crises end up with American taxpayers getting stuck with the tab. Gains belong to the risk-takers. But losses — they belong to us. To paraphrase Abe Lincoln, family offices — a multi-trillion dollar industry largely allowed to operate in the shadows in a global financial system that is more intertwined than ever — are of the super-wealthy, by the super-wealthy and for the super-wealthy. And no one else.</p>\n<p>The Archegos collapse may or may not be the beginning of yet another financial crisis. But who’s to say what thousands of other family offices are doing with their trillions, and whether similar problems could blow up?</p>","source":"lsy1603348471595","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Opinion: Financial crises get triggered about every 10 years — Archegos might be right on time</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nOpinion: Financial crises get triggered about every 10 years — Archegos might be right on time\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-04-06 09:30 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://www.marketwatch.com/story/financial-crises-happen-about-every-10-years-which-makes-the-archegos-meltdown-unnerving-11617634942?mod=home-page><strong>marketwatch</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>No one, for now, can say for sure that the so-called family office’s billions in investment losses won’t spread.\n\nFinancial crises are never quite the same. During the late 1980s, nearly a third of ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://www.marketwatch.com/story/financial-crises-happen-about-every-10-years-which-makes-the-archegos-meltdown-unnerving-11617634942?mod=home-page\">Source Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"SPY":"标普500ETF",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite",".DJI":"道琼斯"},"source_url":"https://www.marketwatch.com/story/financial-crises-happen-about-every-10-years-which-makes-the-archegos-meltdown-unnerving-11617634942?mod=home-page","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1101907559","content_text":"No one, for now, can say for sure that the so-called family office’s billions in investment losses won’t spread.\n\nFinancial crises are never quite the same. During the late 1980s, nearly a third of the nation’s savings and loan associations failed, ending with a taxpayer bailout — in 2021 terms — of about $265 billion.\nIn 1997-1998, financial crises in Asia and Russia led to the near meltdown of the largest hedge fund in the U.S. —Long-Term Capital Management(LTCM). Its reach and operating practices were such that Federal Reserve Chairman Alan Greenspan said that when LTCM failed, “he had never seen anything in his lifetime that compared to the terror” he felt. LTCM was deemed “too big to fail,” and he engineered a bailout by 14 major U.S. financial institutions.\nExactly a decade later, too much leverage by some of those very institutions, and the bursting of a U.S. real estate bubble, led to the near collapse of the U.S. financial system. Once again, big banks were deemed too big to fail and taxpayers came to the rescue.\nThe trend? Every 10 years or so, and they all look different. Are we in the early stages of a new crisis now, with the blowup at the family office Archegos Capital Management LP?\nA family office, for the uninitiated, is a private wealth management vehicle for the ultra-wealthy. Here’s what I mean by ultra-wealthy: Consulting firm EY estimates there are some 10,000 family offices globally, but manage, says a separate estimate by market research firm Campden Research, nearly $6 trillion. That $6 trillion is likely far higher now given that it’s based on 2019 data.\nUnregulated money managers\nHere’s the potential danger. Family offices generally aren’t regulated. The 1940 Investment Advisers Act says firms with 15 clients or fewer don’t have to register with the Securities and Exchange Commission. What this means is that trillions of dollars are in play and no one can really say who’s running the money, what it’s invested in, how much leverage is being used, and what kind of counterparty risk may exist. (Counterparty risk is the probability that one party involved in a financial transaction could default on a contractual obligation to someone else.)\nThis appears to be the case with Archegos. The firm bet heavily on certain Chinese stocks, including e-commerce player Vipshop Holdings Ltd.VIPS,-1.19%,U.S.-listed Chinese tutoring company GSX Techedu Inc.GSX,-10.63%and U.S. media companiesViacomCBS Inc.VIAC,-3.90%and Discovery Inc.DISCA,-3.86%,among others. Share prices have tumbled lately, sparking large sales — some $30 billion — by Archegos.\nThe problem is that only about a third of that, or $10 billion, was its own money. We now know that Archegos worked with some of the biggest names on Wall Street, including Credit Suisse Group AGCS,+1.59%,UBS Group AGUBS,+1.01%,Goldman Sachs Group Inc.GS,-1.25%, Morgan StanleyMS,-0.28%,Deutsche Bank AGDB,+0.74%and Nomura Holdings Inc. NMR,+1.87%.\nBut since family offices are largely allowed to operate unregulated, who’s to say how much money is really involved here and what the extent of market risk is? My colleague Mark DeCambre reported last week that Archegos’ true exposures to bad trades could actuallybe closer to $100 billion.\nDanger of counterparty risk\nThis is where counterparty risk comes in. As Archegos’ bets went south, the above banks — looking at losses of their own — hit the firm with margin calls. Deutsche quickly dumped about $4 billion in holdings, while Goldman and Morgan Stanley are also said to have unwound their positions, perhaps limiting their downside.\nSo is this a financial crisis? It doesn’t appear to be. Even so, the Securities and Exchange Commission has opened a preliminary investigation into Archegos and its founder, Bill Hwang.\nOne peer, Tom Lee, the research chief of Fundstrat Global Advisors, calls Hwang one of the “top 10 of the best investment minds” he knows.\nBut federal regulators may have a lesser opinion. In 2012, Hwang’s former hedge fund, Tiger Asia Management, pleaded guilty and paid more than $60 million in penalties after it was accused of trading on illegal tips about Chinese banks. The SEC banned Hwang from managing money on behalf of clients — essentially booting him from the hedge fund industry. So Hwang opened Archegos, and again, family offices aren’t generally aren’t regulated.\nYellen on the case\nThis issue is on Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen’s radar. She said last week that greater oversight of these private corners of the financial industry is needed. The Financial Stability Oversight Council (FSOC), which she oversees, has revived a task force to help agencies better “share data, identify risks and work to strengthen our financial system.”\nMost financial crises end up with American taxpayers getting stuck with the tab. Gains belong to the risk-takers. But losses — they belong to us. To paraphrase Abe Lincoln, family offices — a multi-trillion dollar industry largely allowed to operate in the shadows in a global financial system that is more intertwined than ever — are of the super-wealthy, by the super-wealthy and for the super-wealthy. And no one else.\nThe Archegos collapse may or may not be the beginning of yet another financial crisis. But who’s to say what thousands of other family offices are doing with their trillions, and whether similar problems could blow up?","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{".IXIC":0.9,".SPX":0.9,"SPY":0.9,".DJI":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1127,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":349526720,"gmtCreate":1617627625160,"gmtModify":1704701036856,"author":{"id":"3579134724593969","authorId":"3579134724593969","name":"witchmania","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/56e8b4d72db625533b44db034eeff089","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3579134724593969","idStr":"3579134724593969"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"worth a read&nbsp;","listText":"worth a read&nbsp;","text":"worth a read","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/349526720","repostId":"2125763974","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":747,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":349008684,"gmtCreate":1617501166848,"gmtModify":1704700019235,"author":{"id":"3579134724593969","authorId":"3579134724593969","name":"witchmania","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/56e8b4d72db625533b44db034eeff089","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3579134724593969","idStr":"3579134724593969"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Technology stocks&nbsp;","listText":"Technology stocks&nbsp;","text":"Technology stocks","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/349008684","repostId":"340824285","repostType":1,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1075,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":349003092,"gmtCreate":1617500993416,"gmtModify":1704700016286,"author":{"id":"3579134724593969","authorId":"3579134724593969","name":"witchmania","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/56e8b4d72db625533b44db034eeff089","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3579134724593969","idStr":"3579134724593969"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Great ariticle, would you like to share it?","listText":"Great ariticle, would you like to share it?","text":"Great ariticle, would you like to share it?","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/349003092","repostId":"340851184","repostType":1,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1234,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":340674861,"gmtCreate":1617413048253,"gmtModify":1704699477968,"author":{"id":"3579134724593969","authorId":"3579134724593969","name":"witchmania","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/56e8b4d72db625533b44db034eeff089","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3579134724593969","idStr":"3579134724593969"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"is it something that can be consider? hmmm","listText":"is it something that can be consider? hmmm","text":"is it something that can be consider? hmmm","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/907bfee694bcc60c1633cea9d1d5f318","width":"1080","height":"2529"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/340674861","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":809,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":340676320,"gmtCreate":1617412561160,"gmtModify":1704699473599,"author":{"id":"3579134724593969","authorId":"3579134724593969","name":"witchmania","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/56e8b4d72db625533b44db034eeff089","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3579134724593969","idStr":"3579134724593969"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Is crash and correction the same meaning in the article?&nbsp;","listText":"Is crash and correction the same meaning in the article?&nbsp;","text":"Is crash and correction the same meaning in the article?","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":3,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/340676320","repostId":"1191998262","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1191998262","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1617366158,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1191998262?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2021-04-02 20:22","market":"us","language":"en","title":"How Likely Is a Stock Market Crash?","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1191998262","media":"Motley Fool","summary":"You may not like the answer.\n\nFor the past year, investors have enjoyed one of the greatest bounce-b","content":"<blockquote>\n You may not like the answer.\n</blockquote>\n<p>For the past year, investors have enjoyed one of the greatest bounce-back rallies of all time. After the benchmark<b>S&amp;P 500</b>(SNPINDEX:^GSPC)lost a third of its value in mere weeks due to unprecedented uncertainties surrounding the coronavirus pandemic, it bounced back to gain in the neighborhood of 75% off its lows. You could rightly say that patience has paid off.</p>\n<p>But there's another reality that investors -- especially long-term investors -- are keenly aware of: the propensity of the stock market to crash or correct. Things might look great now, but the next big nosedive is always waiting in the wings.</p>\n<p>It begs the question: How likely is astock market crash? Let's take a closer look.</p>\n<p><b>Double-digit declines occur every 1.87 years, on average</b></p>\n<p>To begin with the basics, stock market corrections (i.e., declines of at least 10%) are quite common in the S&amp;P 500. According to data from market analytics firm Yardeni Research, there have been 38 corrections in the S&amp;P 500 since the beginning of 1950. This works out to an average double-digit decline in the benchmark indexevery 1.87 years. Since it's now been more than a year since the market hit its bear-market bottom, the averages are certainly not in investors' favor.</p>\n<p>However, averages are nothing more than that... averages. The market doesn't adhere to averages, even if some folks base their investments off of what's happened historically.</p>\n<p>We could enter a period similar to 1991 through 1996 where there were zero corrections. Or we could continue the theme since the beginning of 2010, where corrections occur, on average, every 19 months.</p>\n<p><b>Corrections have been an historical given within three years of a bear market bottom</b></p>\n<p>Another interesting piece of evidence to examine is the frequency by which the S&amp;P 500 corrects after hitting a bear-market bottom.</p>\n<p>Since the beginning of 1960 (an arbitrary year I chose for the sake of simplicity), the widely followed index has navigated its way through nine bear markets, including the coronavirus crash. In rebounding from each of the previous eight bear market lows, there was at least one double-digit percentage decline within three years100% of the time. In aggregate, 13 corrections have occurred within three years following the last eight bear market bottoms (i.e., either one or two following each bottom).</p>\n<p>Put another way, rebounding from a bear-market bottom is rarely a straight-line move higher. Yet up, up, and away has pretty much been the theme for investors since March 23, 2020. History would suggest that there's a very good chance of a move lower in equities within the next two years.</p>\n<p><b>Crashes frequently occur when this valuation metric is hit</b></p>\n<p>But the most damning bit of evidence might just be the S&amp;P 500's Shiller price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio. This is a valuation metric that examines the average inflation-adjusted earnings from the previous 10 years. You might also know it as the cyclically adjusted P/E ratio, or CAPE.</p>\n<p>As of the close of business on March 30, the S&amp;P 500's Shiller P/E ratio hit 35.61. That's well over double its 150-year average of 16.8. Using continuous bull market moves as a parameter, it's the second-highest reading in its history.</p>\n<p>To some extent, itmakes sensethat equity valuations should be higher now than they've been historically. That's because interest rates are near an all-time low and access to the internet has effectively broken down barriers between Wall Street and Main Street that may have, in the past, kept P/E multiples at bay.</p>\n<p>However, previous instances of the S&amp;P 500's Shiller P/E ratio crossing above and sustaining the 30 levelhaven't ended well. In the prior four instances where the Shiller P/E surpassed and held above 30, the benchmark index tumbled anywhere from 20% to as much as 89%. Although an 89% plunge, which was experienced during the Great Depression, is very unlikely these days, a big drop has historically been in the cards when valuations get extended, as they are now.</p>\n<p><b>Keep that cash handy in the event that opportunity knocks</b></p>\n<p>To circle back to the original question at hand, the data is pretty clear that the likelihood of a stock market crash or correction has grown considerably. It's impossible to precisely predict when a crash might occur, how long the decline will last, or how steep the drop could be. But the data strongly suggests that downside is in the offing.</p>\n<p>While this might be a disappointing revelation to some investors, it shouldn't be. Crashes and corrections are a normal part of the investing cycle. More importantly, theyprovide an opportunityfor investors to buy into great companies at a discount. Just think about all the great companies you're probably kicking yourself over for not buying last March.</p>\n<p>The reason to be excited about crashes and corrections is also found in the data. You see, of those 38 previous corrections in the S&amp;P 500 since the beginning of 1950, each and every one has eventually been put into the rearview mirror by a bull market rally. Plus,at no point over the past centuryhave rolling 20-year total returns (including dividends) for the S&amp;P 500 been negative.</p>\n<p>If you need further encouragement to buy during a correction, keep in mind that 24 of the 38 double-digit declines in the S&amp;P 500 havefound their bottom in 104 or fewer calendar days(3.5 months or less). Crashes and corrections may be steep at times but tend to resolve quickly. That's your cue to have cash at the ready in the event that opportunity knocks.</p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>How Likely Is a Stock Market Crash?</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nHow Likely Is a Stock Market Crash?\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-04-02 20:22 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://www.fool.com/investing/2021/04/02/how-likely-is-a-stock-market-crash/><strong>Motley Fool</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>You may not like the answer.\n\nFor the past year, investors have enjoyed one of the greatest bounce-back rallies of all time. After the benchmarkS&P 500(SNPINDEX:^GSPC)lost a third of its value in mere...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://www.fool.com/investing/2021/04/02/how-likely-is-a-stock-market-crash/\">Source Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index","SPY":"标普500ETF",".DJI":"道琼斯"},"source_url":"https://www.fool.com/investing/2021/04/02/how-likely-is-a-stock-market-crash/","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1191998262","content_text":"You may not like the answer.\n\nFor the past year, investors have enjoyed one of the greatest bounce-back rallies of all time. After the benchmarkS&P 500(SNPINDEX:^GSPC)lost a third of its value in mere weeks due to unprecedented uncertainties surrounding the coronavirus pandemic, it bounced back to gain in the neighborhood of 75% off its lows. You could rightly say that patience has paid off.\nBut there's another reality that investors -- especially long-term investors -- are keenly aware of: the propensity of the stock market to crash or correct. Things might look great now, but the next big nosedive is always waiting in the wings.\nIt begs the question: How likely is astock market crash? Let's take a closer look.\nDouble-digit declines occur every 1.87 years, on average\nTo begin with the basics, stock market corrections (i.e., declines of at least 10%) are quite common in the S&P 500. According to data from market analytics firm Yardeni Research, there have been 38 corrections in the S&P 500 since the beginning of 1950. This works out to an average double-digit decline in the benchmark indexevery 1.87 years. Since it's now been more than a year since the market hit its bear-market bottom, the averages are certainly not in investors' favor.\nHowever, averages are nothing more than that... averages. The market doesn't adhere to averages, even if some folks base their investments off of what's happened historically.\nWe could enter a period similar to 1991 through 1996 where there were zero corrections. Or we could continue the theme since the beginning of 2010, where corrections occur, on average, every 19 months.\nCorrections have been an historical given within three years of a bear market bottom\nAnother interesting piece of evidence to examine is the frequency by which the S&P 500 corrects after hitting a bear-market bottom.\nSince the beginning of 1960 (an arbitrary year I chose for the sake of simplicity), the widely followed index has navigated its way through nine bear markets, including the coronavirus crash. In rebounding from each of the previous eight bear market lows, there was at least one double-digit percentage decline within three years100% of the time. In aggregate, 13 corrections have occurred within three years following the last eight bear market bottoms (i.e., either one or two following each bottom).\nPut another way, rebounding from a bear-market bottom is rarely a straight-line move higher. Yet up, up, and away has pretty much been the theme for investors since March 23, 2020. History would suggest that there's a very good chance of a move lower in equities within the next two years.\nCrashes frequently occur when this valuation metric is hit\nBut the most damning bit of evidence might just be the S&P 500's Shiller price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio. This is a valuation metric that examines the average inflation-adjusted earnings from the previous 10 years. You might also know it as the cyclically adjusted P/E ratio, or CAPE.\nAs of the close of business on March 30, the S&P 500's Shiller P/E ratio hit 35.61. That's well over double its 150-year average of 16.8. Using continuous bull market moves as a parameter, it's the second-highest reading in its history.\nTo some extent, itmakes sensethat equity valuations should be higher now than they've been historically. That's because interest rates are near an all-time low and access to the internet has effectively broken down barriers between Wall Street and Main Street that may have, in the past, kept P/E multiples at bay.\nHowever, previous instances of the S&P 500's Shiller P/E ratio crossing above and sustaining the 30 levelhaven't ended well. In the prior four instances where the Shiller P/E surpassed and held above 30, the benchmark index tumbled anywhere from 20% to as much as 89%. Although an 89% plunge, which was experienced during the Great Depression, is very unlikely these days, a big drop has historically been in the cards when valuations get extended, as they are now.\nKeep that cash handy in the event that opportunity knocks\nTo circle back to the original question at hand, the data is pretty clear that the likelihood of a stock market crash or correction has grown considerably. It's impossible to precisely predict when a crash might occur, how long the decline will last, or how steep the drop could be. But the data strongly suggests that downside is in the offing.\nWhile this might be a disappointing revelation to some investors, it shouldn't be. Crashes and corrections are a normal part of the investing cycle. More importantly, theyprovide an opportunityfor investors to buy into great companies at a discount. Just think about all the great companies you're probably kicking yourself over for not buying last March.\nThe reason to be excited about crashes and corrections is also found in the data. You see, of those 38 previous corrections in the S&P 500 since the beginning of 1950, each and every one has eventually been put into the rearview mirror by a bull market rally. Plus,at no point over the past centuryhave rolling 20-year total returns (including dividends) for the S&P 500 been negative.\nIf you need further encouragement to buy during a correction, keep in mind that 24 of the 38 double-digit declines in the S&P 500 havefound their bottom in 104 or fewer calendar days(3.5 months or less). Crashes and corrections may be steep at times but tend to resolve quickly. That's your cue to have cash at the ready in the event that opportunity knocks.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{".IXIC":0.9,"SPY":0.9,".DJI":0.9,".SPX":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":641,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[{"author":{"id":"3563506333196915","authorId":"3563506333196915","name":"hanks1705","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/561b464f9e4a88551ca79eb30c99c587","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"authorIdStr":"3563506333196915","idStr":"3563506333196915"},"content":"correction is drop of between 10% to 20% from high..crash is drop of more than 10% and another 10%..total of more than 20%..","text":"correction is drop of between 10% to 20% from high..crash is drop of more than 10% and another 10%..total of more than 20%..","html":"correction is drop of between 10% to 20% from high..crash is drop of more than 10% and another 10%..total of more than 20%.."}],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":357920767,"gmtCreate":1617233697759,"gmtModify":1704697515735,"author":{"id":"3579134724593969","authorId":"3579134724593969","name":"witchmania","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/56e8b4d72db625533b44db034eeff089","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3579134724593969","idStr":"3579134724593969"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"???","listText":"???","text":"???","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":4,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/357920767","repostId":"1127322570","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":825,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":357920580,"gmtCreate":1617233678340,"gmtModify":1704697515089,"author":{"id":"3579134724593969","authorId":"3579134724593969","name":"witchmania","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/56e8b4d72db625533b44db034eeff089","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3579134724593969","idStr":"3579134724593969"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"A kind of investing one can look into, because it's really value adding&nbsp;","listText":"A kind of investing one can look into, because it's really value adding&nbsp;","text":"A kind of investing one can look into, because it's really value adding","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/357920580","repostId":"1127322570","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1084,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0}],"hots":[{"id":355844241,"gmtCreate":1617063504483,"gmtModify":1704801422676,"author":{"id":"3579134724593969","authorId":"3579134724593969","name":"witchmania","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/56e8b4d72db625533b44db034eeff089","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3579134724593969","authorIdStr":"3579134724593969"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"intense situation&nbsp;","listText":"intense situation&nbsp;","text":"intense situation","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":8,"commentSize":2,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/355844241","repostId":"1197127356","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":863,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":340676320,"gmtCreate":1617412561160,"gmtModify":1704699473599,"author":{"id":"3579134724593969","authorId":"3579134724593969","name":"witchmania","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/56e8b4d72db625533b44db034eeff089","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3579134724593969","authorIdStr":"3579134724593969"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Is crash and correction the same meaning in the article?&nbsp;","listText":"Is crash and correction the same meaning in the article?&nbsp;","text":"Is crash and correction the same meaning in the article?","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":3,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/340676320","repostId":"1191998262","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1191998262","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1617366158,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1191998262?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2021-04-02 20:22","market":"us","language":"en","title":"How Likely Is a Stock Market Crash?","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1191998262","media":"Motley Fool","summary":"You may not like the answer.\n\nFor the past year, investors have enjoyed one of the greatest bounce-b","content":"<blockquote>\n You may not like the answer.\n</blockquote>\n<p>For the past year, investors have enjoyed one of the greatest bounce-back rallies of all time. After the benchmark<b>S&amp;P 500</b>(SNPINDEX:^GSPC)lost a third of its value in mere weeks due to unprecedented uncertainties surrounding the coronavirus pandemic, it bounced back to gain in the neighborhood of 75% off its lows. You could rightly say that patience has paid off.</p>\n<p>But there's another reality that investors -- especially long-term investors -- are keenly aware of: the propensity of the stock market to crash or correct. Things might look great now, but the next big nosedive is always waiting in the wings.</p>\n<p>It begs the question: How likely is astock market crash? Let's take a closer look.</p>\n<p><b>Double-digit declines occur every 1.87 years, on average</b></p>\n<p>To begin with the basics, stock market corrections (i.e., declines of at least 10%) are quite common in the S&amp;P 500. According to data from market analytics firm Yardeni Research, there have been 38 corrections in the S&amp;P 500 since the beginning of 1950. This works out to an average double-digit decline in the benchmark indexevery 1.87 years. Since it's now been more than a year since the market hit its bear-market bottom, the averages are certainly not in investors' favor.</p>\n<p>However, averages are nothing more than that... averages. The market doesn't adhere to averages, even if some folks base their investments off of what's happened historically.</p>\n<p>We could enter a period similar to 1991 through 1996 where there were zero corrections. Or we could continue the theme since the beginning of 2010, where corrections occur, on average, every 19 months.</p>\n<p><b>Corrections have been an historical given within three years of a bear market bottom</b></p>\n<p>Another interesting piece of evidence to examine is the frequency by which the S&amp;P 500 corrects after hitting a bear-market bottom.</p>\n<p>Since the beginning of 1960 (an arbitrary year I chose for the sake of simplicity), the widely followed index has navigated its way through nine bear markets, including the coronavirus crash. In rebounding from each of the previous eight bear market lows, there was at least one double-digit percentage decline within three years100% of the time. In aggregate, 13 corrections have occurred within three years following the last eight bear market bottoms (i.e., either one or two following each bottom).</p>\n<p>Put another way, rebounding from a bear-market bottom is rarely a straight-line move higher. Yet up, up, and away has pretty much been the theme for investors since March 23, 2020. History would suggest that there's a very good chance of a move lower in equities within the next two years.</p>\n<p><b>Crashes frequently occur when this valuation metric is hit</b></p>\n<p>But the most damning bit of evidence might just be the S&amp;P 500's Shiller price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio. This is a valuation metric that examines the average inflation-adjusted earnings from the previous 10 years. You might also know it as the cyclically adjusted P/E ratio, or CAPE.</p>\n<p>As of the close of business on March 30, the S&amp;P 500's Shiller P/E ratio hit 35.61. That's well over double its 150-year average of 16.8. Using continuous bull market moves as a parameter, it's the second-highest reading in its history.</p>\n<p>To some extent, itmakes sensethat equity valuations should be higher now than they've been historically. That's because interest rates are near an all-time low and access to the internet has effectively broken down barriers between Wall Street and Main Street that may have, in the past, kept P/E multiples at bay.</p>\n<p>However, previous instances of the S&amp;P 500's Shiller P/E ratio crossing above and sustaining the 30 levelhaven't ended well. In the prior four instances where the Shiller P/E surpassed and held above 30, the benchmark index tumbled anywhere from 20% to as much as 89%. Although an 89% plunge, which was experienced during the Great Depression, is very unlikely these days, a big drop has historically been in the cards when valuations get extended, as they are now.</p>\n<p><b>Keep that cash handy in the event that opportunity knocks</b></p>\n<p>To circle back to the original question at hand, the data is pretty clear that the likelihood of a stock market crash or correction has grown considerably. It's impossible to precisely predict when a crash might occur, how long the decline will last, or how steep the drop could be. But the data strongly suggests that downside is in the offing.</p>\n<p>While this might be a disappointing revelation to some investors, it shouldn't be. Crashes and corrections are a normal part of the investing cycle. More importantly, theyprovide an opportunityfor investors to buy into great companies at a discount. Just think about all the great companies you're probably kicking yourself over for not buying last March.</p>\n<p>The reason to be excited about crashes and corrections is also found in the data. You see, of those 38 previous corrections in the S&amp;P 500 since the beginning of 1950, each and every one has eventually been put into the rearview mirror by a bull market rally. Plus,at no point over the past centuryhave rolling 20-year total returns (including dividends) for the S&amp;P 500 been negative.</p>\n<p>If you need further encouragement to buy during a correction, keep in mind that 24 of the 38 double-digit declines in the S&amp;P 500 havefound their bottom in 104 or fewer calendar days(3.5 months or less). Crashes and corrections may be steep at times but tend to resolve quickly. That's your cue to have cash at the ready in the event that opportunity knocks.</p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>How Likely Is a Stock Market Crash?</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nHow Likely Is a Stock Market Crash?\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-04-02 20:22 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://www.fool.com/investing/2021/04/02/how-likely-is-a-stock-market-crash/><strong>Motley Fool</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>You may not like the answer.\n\nFor the past year, investors have enjoyed one of the greatest bounce-back rallies of all time. After the benchmarkS&P 500(SNPINDEX:^GSPC)lost a third of its value in mere...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://www.fool.com/investing/2021/04/02/how-likely-is-a-stock-market-crash/\">Source Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index","SPY":"标普500ETF",".DJI":"道琼斯"},"source_url":"https://www.fool.com/investing/2021/04/02/how-likely-is-a-stock-market-crash/","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1191998262","content_text":"You may not like the answer.\n\nFor the past year, investors have enjoyed one of the greatest bounce-back rallies of all time. After the benchmarkS&P 500(SNPINDEX:^GSPC)lost a third of its value in mere weeks due to unprecedented uncertainties surrounding the coronavirus pandemic, it bounced back to gain in the neighborhood of 75% off its lows. You could rightly say that patience has paid off.\nBut there's another reality that investors -- especially long-term investors -- are keenly aware of: the propensity of the stock market to crash or correct. Things might look great now, but the next big nosedive is always waiting in the wings.\nIt begs the question: How likely is astock market crash? Let's take a closer look.\nDouble-digit declines occur every 1.87 years, on average\nTo begin with the basics, stock market corrections (i.e., declines of at least 10%) are quite common in the S&P 500. According to data from market analytics firm Yardeni Research, there have been 38 corrections in the S&P 500 since the beginning of 1950. This works out to an average double-digit decline in the benchmark indexevery 1.87 years. Since it's now been more than a year since the market hit its bear-market bottom, the averages are certainly not in investors' favor.\nHowever, averages are nothing more than that... averages. The market doesn't adhere to averages, even if some folks base their investments off of what's happened historically.\nWe could enter a period similar to 1991 through 1996 where there were zero corrections. Or we could continue the theme since the beginning of 2010, where corrections occur, on average, every 19 months.\nCorrections have been an historical given within three years of a bear market bottom\nAnother interesting piece of evidence to examine is the frequency by which the S&P 500 corrects after hitting a bear-market bottom.\nSince the beginning of 1960 (an arbitrary year I chose for the sake of simplicity), the widely followed index has navigated its way through nine bear markets, including the coronavirus crash. In rebounding from each of the previous eight bear market lows, there was at least one double-digit percentage decline within three years100% of the time. In aggregate, 13 corrections have occurred within three years following the last eight bear market bottoms (i.e., either one or two following each bottom).\nPut another way, rebounding from a bear-market bottom is rarely a straight-line move higher. Yet up, up, and away has pretty much been the theme for investors since March 23, 2020. History would suggest that there's a very good chance of a move lower in equities within the next two years.\nCrashes frequently occur when this valuation metric is hit\nBut the most damning bit of evidence might just be the S&P 500's Shiller price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio. This is a valuation metric that examines the average inflation-adjusted earnings from the previous 10 years. You might also know it as the cyclically adjusted P/E ratio, or CAPE.\nAs of the close of business on March 30, the S&P 500's Shiller P/E ratio hit 35.61. That's well over double its 150-year average of 16.8. Using continuous bull market moves as a parameter, it's the second-highest reading in its history.\nTo some extent, itmakes sensethat equity valuations should be higher now than they've been historically. That's because interest rates are near an all-time low and access to the internet has effectively broken down barriers between Wall Street and Main Street that may have, in the past, kept P/E multiples at bay.\nHowever, previous instances of the S&P 500's Shiller P/E ratio crossing above and sustaining the 30 levelhaven't ended well. In the prior four instances where the Shiller P/E surpassed and held above 30, the benchmark index tumbled anywhere from 20% to as much as 89%. Although an 89% plunge, which was experienced during the Great Depression, is very unlikely these days, a big drop has historically been in the cards when valuations get extended, as they are now.\nKeep that cash handy in the event that opportunity knocks\nTo circle back to the original question at hand, the data is pretty clear that the likelihood of a stock market crash or correction has grown considerably. It's impossible to precisely predict when a crash might occur, how long the decline will last, or how steep the drop could be. But the data strongly suggests that downside is in the offing.\nWhile this might be a disappointing revelation to some investors, it shouldn't be. Crashes and corrections are a normal part of the investing cycle. More importantly, theyprovide an opportunityfor investors to buy into great companies at a discount. Just think about all the great companies you're probably kicking yourself over for not buying last March.\nThe reason to be excited about crashes and corrections is also found in the data. You see, of those 38 previous corrections in the S&P 500 since the beginning of 1950, each and every one has eventually been put into the rearview mirror by a bull market rally. Plus,at no point over the past centuryhave rolling 20-year total returns (including dividends) for the S&P 500 been negative.\nIf you need further encouragement to buy during a correction, keep in mind that 24 of the 38 double-digit declines in the S&P 500 havefound their bottom in 104 or fewer calendar days(3.5 months or less). Crashes and corrections may be steep at times but tend to resolve quickly. That's your cue to have cash at the ready in the event that opportunity knocks.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{".IXIC":0.9,"SPY":0.9,".DJI":0.9,".SPX":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":641,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[{"author":{"id":"3563506333196915","authorId":"3563506333196915","name":"hanks1705","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/561b464f9e4a88551ca79eb30c99c587","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"idStr":"3563506333196915","authorIdStr":"3563506333196915"},"content":"correction is drop of between 10% to 20% from high..crash is drop of more than 10% and another 10%..total of more than 20%..","text":"correction is drop of between 10% to 20% from high..crash is drop of more than 10% and another 10%..total of more than 20%..","html":"correction is drop of between 10% to 20% from high..crash is drop of more than 10% and another 10%..total of more than 20%.."}],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":356623791,"gmtCreate":1616773202813,"gmtModify":1704798856527,"author":{"id":"3579134724593969","authorId":"3579134724593969","name":"witchmania","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/56e8b4d72db625533b44db034eeff089","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3579134724593969","authorIdStr":"3579134724593969"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/OV8.SI\">$SHENG SIONG GROUP LTD(OV8.SI)$</a>&nbsp;I'm waiting for the price to go down a little and buy, but it just never hit the price I want. ?I want to be entitled to the dividend ??","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/OV8.SI\">$SHENG SIONG GROUP LTD(OV8.SI)$</a>&nbsp;I'm waiting for the price to go down a little and buy, but it just never hit the price I want. ?I want to be entitled to the dividend ??","text":"$SHENG SIONG GROUP LTD(OV8.SI)$ I'm waiting for the price to go down a little and buy, but it just never hit the price I want. ?I want to be entitled to the dividend ??","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":4,"commentSize":2,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/356623791","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1315,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[{"author":{"id":"3575203465272475","authorId":"3575203465272475","name":"Randomtrader","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"idStr":"3575203465272475","authorIdStr":"3575203465272475"},"content":"when is it coming out?","text":"when is it coming out?","html":"when is it coming out?"}],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":354134938,"gmtCreate":1617150505024,"gmtModify":1704696405599,"author":{"id":"3579134724593969","authorId":"3579134724593969","name":"witchmania","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/56e8b4d72db625533b44db034eeff089","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3579134724593969","authorIdStr":"3579134724593969"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"life long learning ?","listText":"life long learning ?","text":"life long learning ?","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":2,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/354134938","repostId":"1163996400","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":551,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":355844155,"gmtCreate":1617063492577,"gmtModify":1704801421223,"author":{"id":"3579134724593969","authorId":"3579134724593969","name":"witchmania","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/56e8b4d72db625533b44db034eeff089","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3579134724593969","authorIdStr":"3579134724593969"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"intense situation&nbsp;","listText":"intense situation&nbsp;","text":"intense situation","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":7,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/355844155","repostId":"1197127356","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":617,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":357920767,"gmtCreate":1617233697759,"gmtModify":1704697515735,"author":{"id":"3579134724593969","authorId":"3579134724593969","name":"witchmania","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/56e8b4d72db625533b44db034eeff089","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3579134724593969","authorIdStr":"3579134724593969"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"???","listText":"???","text":"???","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":4,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/357920767","repostId":"1127322570","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":825,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":187957836,"gmtCreate":1623736860625,"gmtModify":1704210001022,"author":{"id":"3579134724593969","authorId":"3579134724593969","name":"witchmania","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/56e8b4d72db625533b44db034eeff089","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3579134724593969","authorIdStr":"3579134724593969"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/8AZ.SI\">$Aztech Gbl(8AZ.SI)$</a>&nbsp;wonder if the fall was it because it is nearer to dividend payment date? ?","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/8AZ.SI\">$Aztech Gbl(8AZ.SI)$</a>&nbsp;wonder if the fall was it because it is nearer to dividend payment date? ?","text":"$Aztech Gbl(8AZ.SI)$ wonder if the fall was it because it is nearer to dividend payment date? ?","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/187957836","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2491,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":341272001,"gmtCreate":1617837587203,"gmtModify":1704703672428,"author":{"id":"3579134724593969","authorId":"3579134724593969","name":"witchmania","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/56e8b4d72db625533b44db034eeff089","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3579134724593969","authorIdStr":"3579134724593969"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Anyone can share of the impact with the spin off?&nbsp;","listText":"Anyone can share of the impact with the spin off?&nbsp;","text":"Anyone can share of the impact with the spin off?","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/341272001","repostId":"2124758025","repostType":2,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1969,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":355870828,"gmtCreate":1617063587964,"gmtModify":1704801424129,"author":{"id":"3579134724593969","authorId":"3579134724593969","name":"witchmania","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/56e8b4d72db625533b44db034eeff089","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3579134724593969","authorIdStr":"3579134724593969"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"waterfall effect","listText":"waterfall effect","text":"waterfall effect","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/355870828","repostId":"1119928689","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":686,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":892807889,"gmtCreate":1628646645441,"gmtModify":1676529807469,"author":{"id":"3579134724593969","authorId":"3579134724593969","name":"witchmania","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/56e8b4d72db625533b44db034eeff089","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3579134724593969","authorIdStr":"3579134724593969"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Wanne buyyy but so hard to buy in. ?","listText":"Wanne buyyy but so hard to buy in. ?","text":"Wanne buyyy but so hard to buy in. ?","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f3beeec263d65c915cc67815197bb30d","width":"1080","height":"2837"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/892807889","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1683,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":147976345,"gmtCreate":1626331253387,"gmtModify":1703758039510,"author":{"id":"3579134724593969","authorId":"3579134724593969","name":"witchmania","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/56e8b4d72db625533b44db034eeff089","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3579134724593969","authorIdStr":"3579134724593969"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"when's the dividend coming againnn?&nbsp;","listText":"when's the dividend coming againnn?&nbsp;","text":"when's the dividend coming againnn?","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/64841c4798047f86e786204ef5c364c0","width":"1080","height":"2825"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/147976345","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2157,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":144443357,"gmtCreate":1626311829379,"gmtModify":1703757599836,"author":{"id":"3579134724593969","authorId":"3579134724593969","name":"witchmania","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/56e8b4d72db625533b44db034eeff089","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3579134724593969","authorIdStr":"3579134724593969"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"actually my thoughts too! But I didnt hold much. Now it's a bit too step i feel.&nbsp;","listText":"actually my thoughts too! But I didnt hold much. Now it's a bit too step i feel.&nbsp;","text":"actually my thoughts too! But I didnt hold much. Now it's a bit too step i feel.","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/144443357","repostId":"144858315","repostType":1,"repost":{"id":144858315,"gmtCreate":1626276312837,"gmtModify":1703757018498,"author":{"id":"3561164848573536","authorId":"3561164848573536","name":"阿嬷手作","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/583962c9c304bc46d852891d0ef53de4","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3561164848573536","authorIdStr":"3561164848573536"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/OYY.SI\">$PROPNEX LIMITED(OYY.SI)$</a>this counter will be the next iFast.<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AIY.SI\">$IFAST CORPORATION LTD.(AIY.SI)$</a>","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/OYY.SI\">$PROPNEX LIMITED(OYY.SI)$</a>this counter will be the next iFast.<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AIY.SI\">$IFAST CORPORATION LTD.(AIY.SI)$</a>","text":"$PROPNEX LIMITED(OYY.SI)$this counter will be the next iFast.$IFAST CORPORATION LTD.(AIY.SI)$","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/144858315","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":0,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1822,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":188351174,"gmtCreate":1623422328698,"gmtModify":1704203331405,"author":{"id":"3579134724593969","authorId":"3579134724593969","name":"witchmania","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/56e8b4d72db625533b44db034eeff089","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3579134724593969","authorIdStr":"3579134724593969"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"wonder what's people take for the stock?&nbsp;","listText":"wonder what's people take for the stock?&nbsp;","text":"wonder what's people take for the stock?","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9ba3007f6ac74ea082898be3d0c8000a","width":"1080","height":"2529"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/188351174","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1582,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":136247727,"gmtCreate":1622024052569,"gmtModify":1704366274480,"author":{"id":"3579134724593969","authorId":"3579134724593969","name":"witchmania","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/56e8b4d72db625533b44db034eeff089","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3579134724593969","authorIdStr":"3579134724593969"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"thoughts on this anybody?&nbsp;","listText":"thoughts on this anybody?&nbsp;","text":"thoughts on this anybody?","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9cb9b1e3967309232eef8224dc65354a","width":"1080","height":"2529"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/136247727","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2055,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":192895719,"gmtCreate":1621173487231,"gmtModify":1704353611336,"author":{"id":"3579134724593969","authorId":"3579134724593969","name":"witchmania","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/56e8b4d72db625533b44db034eeff089","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3579134724593969","authorIdStr":"3579134724593969"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"jus wondering if holder out there are choosing dividend in the form or shares or cash. If shares, why?! ??","listText":"jus wondering if holder out there are choosing dividend in the form or shares or cash. If shares, why?! ??","text":"jus wondering if holder out there are choosing dividend in the form or shares or cash. If shares, why?! ??","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ddcf11410f8500aeb08f995ed5267c43","width":"1080","height":"2529"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/192895719","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1882,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":198289654,"gmtCreate":1620961302778,"gmtModify":1704351194066,"author":{"id":"3579134724593969","authorId":"3579134724593969","name":"witchmania","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/56e8b4d72db625533b44db034eeff089","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3579134724593969","authorIdStr":"3579134724593969"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"What are your take?&nbsp;","listText":"What are your take?&nbsp;","text":"What are your take?","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/110aae7240e7833cf8cdf7fe113c5284","width":"1080","height":"2529"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/198289654","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1967,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":344500667,"gmtCreate":1618412821359,"gmtModify":1704710516096,"author":{"id":"3579134724593969","authorId":"3579134724593969","name":"witchmania","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/56e8b4d72db625533b44db034eeff089","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3579134724593969","authorIdStr":"3579134724593969"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"foods for thoughts&nbsp;","listText":"foods for thoughts&nbsp;","text":"foods for thoughts","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a93a246bcd2c1785b485ae87d3db159d","width":"1080","height":"2529"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/344500667","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2007,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":341278090,"gmtCreate":1617837414710,"gmtModify":1704703669312,"author":{"id":"3579134724593969","authorId":"3579134724593969","name":"witchmania","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/56e8b4d72db625533b44db034eeff089","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3579134724593969","authorIdStr":"3579134724593969"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Any thoughts on this?&nbsp;","listText":"Any thoughts on this?&nbsp;","text":"Any thoughts on this?","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/38e7810b6d2db664c44100487148e4e6","width":"1080","height":"1822"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/341278090","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1083,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":341644136,"gmtCreate":1617811849225,"gmtModify":1704703528380,"author":{"id":"3579134724593969","authorId":"3579134724593969","name":"witchmania","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/56e8b4d72db625533b44db034eeff089","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3579134724593969","authorIdStr":"3579134724593969"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"thoughts?&nbsp;","listText":"thoughts?&nbsp;","text":"thoughts?","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a7affa30c3d5c8df375e0895128a1ff0","width":"1080","height":"1822"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/341644136","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":774,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":343604860,"gmtCreate":1617709887750,"gmtModify":1704702047095,"author":{"id":"3579134724593969","authorId":"3579134724593969","name":"witchmania","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/56e8b4d72db625533b44db034eeff089","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3579134724593969","authorIdStr":"3579134724593969"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"???","listText":"???","text":"???","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/343604860","repostId":"1101907559","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1101907559","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1617672655,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1101907559?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2021-04-06 09:30","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Opinion: Financial crises get triggered about every 10 years — Archegos might be right on time","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1101907559","media":"marketwatch","summary":"No one, for now, can say for sure that the so-called family office’s billions in investment losses won’t spread.Financial crises are never quite the same. During the late 1980s, nearly a third of the nation’s savings and loan associations failed, ending with a taxpayer bailout — in 2021 terms — of about $265 billion.In 1997-1998, financial crises in Asia and Russia led to the near meltdown of the largest hedge fund in the U.S. —Long-Term Capital Management. Its reach and operating practices were","content":"<blockquote>\n <b>No one, for now, can say for sure that the so-called family office’s billions in investment losses won’t spread.</b>\n</blockquote>\n<p>Financial crises are never quite the same. During the late 1980s, nearly a third of the nation’s savings and loan associations failed, ending with a taxpayer bailout — in 2021 terms — of about $265 billion.</p>\n<p>In 1997-1998, financial crises in Asia and Russia led to the near meltdown of the largest hedge fund in the U.S. —Long-Term Capital Management(LTCM). Its reach and operating practices were such that Federal Reserve Chairman Alan Greenspan said that when LTCM failed, “he had never seen anything in his lifetime that compared to the terror” he felt. LTCM was deemed “too big to fail,” and he engineered a bailout by 14 major U.S. financial institutions.</p>\n<p>Exactly a decade later, too much leverage by some of those very institutions, and the bursting of a U.S. real estate bubble, led to the near collapse of the U.S. financial system. Once again, big banks were deemed too big to fail and taxpayers came to the rescue.</p>\n<p>The trend? Every 10 years or so, and they all look different.&nbsp;Are we in the early stages of a new crisis now, with the blowup at the family office Archegos Capital Management LP?</p>\n<p>A family office, for the uninitiated, is a private wealth management vehicle for the ultra-wealthy. Here’s what I mean by ultra-wealthy: Consulting firm EY estimates there are some 10,000 family offices globally, but manage, says a separate estimate by market research firm Campden Research, nearly $6 trillion. That $6 trillion is likely far higher now given that it’s based on 2019 data.</p>\n<p><b>Unregulated money managers</b></p>\n<p>Here’s the potential danger. Family offices generally aren’t regulated. The 1940 Investment Advisers Act says firms with 15 clients or fewer don’t have to register with the Securities and Exchange Commission. What this means is that trillions of dollars are in play and no one can really say who’s running the money, what it’s invested in, how much leverage is being used, and what kind of counterparty risk may exist. (Counterparty risk is the probability that one party involved in a financial transaction could default on a contractual obligation to someone else.)</p>\n<p>This appears to be the case with Archegos. The firm bet heavily on certain Chinese stocks, including e-commerce player&nbsp;Vipshop Holdings&nbsp;Ltd.VIPS,-1.19%,U.S.-listed Chinese tutoring company&nbsp;GSX Techedu&nbsp;Inc.GSX,-10.63%and U.S. media companiesViacomCBS&nbsp;Inc.VIAC,-3.90%and&nbsp;Discovery&nbsp;Inc.DISCA,-3.86%,among others. Share prices have tumbled lately, sparking large sales — some $30 billion — by Archegos.</p>\n<p>The problem is that only about a third of that, or $10 billion, was its own money. We now know that Archegos worked with some of the biggest names on Wall Street, including&nbsp;Credit Suisse Group AGCS,+1.59%,UBS Group AGUBS,+1.01%,Goldman Sachs Group Inc.GS,-1.25%,&nbsp;Morgan StanleyMS,-0.28%,Deutsche Bank AGDB,+0.74%and Nomura Holdings Inc.&nbsp;NMR,+1.87%.</p>\n<p>But since family offices are largely allowed to operate unregulated, who’s to say how much money is really involved here and what the extent of market risk is? My colleague Mark DeCambre&nbsp;reported last week that Archegos’ true exposures to bad trades could actuallybe closer to $100 billion.</p>\n<p><b>Danger of counterparty risk</b></p>\n<p>This is where counterparty risk comes in. As Archegos’ bets went south, the above banks — looking at losses of their own — hit the firm with margin calls. Deutsche quickly dumped about $4 billion in holdings, while Goldman and Morgan Stanley are also said to have unwound their positions, perhaps limiting their downside.</p>\n<p>So is this a financial crisis? It doesn’t appear to be. Even so, the Securities and Exchange Commission has opened a preliminary investigation into Archegos and its founder, Bill Hwang.</p>\n<p>One peer, Tom Lee, the research chief of Fundstrat Global Advisors, calls Hwang one of the “top 10 of the best investment minds” he knows.</p>\n<p>But federal regulators may have a lesser opinion. In 2012, Hwang’s former hedge fund, Tiger Asia Management, pleaded guilty and paid more than $60 million in penalties after it was accused of trading on illegal tips about Chinese banks. The SEC banned Hwang from managing money on behalf of clients — essentially booting him from the hedge fund industry. So Hwang opened Archegos, and again, family offices aren’t generally aren’t regulated.</p>\n<p><b>Yellen on the case</b></p>\n<p>This issue is on Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen’s radar. She said last week that greater oversight of these private corners of the financial industry is needed. The Financial Stability Oversight Council (FSOC), which she oversees, has revived a task force to help agencies better “share data, identify risks and work to strengthen our financial system.”</p>\n<p>Most financial crises end up with American taxpayers getting stuck with the tab. Gains belong to the risk-takers. But losses — they belong to us. To paraphrase Abe Lincoln, family offices — a multi-trillion dollar industry largely allowed to operate in the shadows in a global financial system that is more intertwined than ever — are of the super-wealthy, by the super-wealthy and for the super-wealthy. And no one else.</p>\n<p>The Archegos collapse may or may not be the beginning of yet another financial crisis. But who’s to say what thousands of other family offices are doing with their trillions, and whether similar problems could blow up?</p>","source":"lsy1603348471595","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Opinion: Financial crises get triggered about every 10 years — Archegos might be right on time</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nOpinion: Financial crises get triggered about every 10 years — Archegos might be right on time\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-04-06 09:30 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://www.marketwatch.com/story/financial-crises-happen-about-every-10-years-which-makes-the-archegos-meltdown-unnerving-11617634942?mod=home-page><strong>marketwatch</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>No one, for now, can say for sure that the so-called family office’s billions in investment losses won’t spread.\n\nFinancial crises are never quite the same. During the late 1980s, nearly a third of ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://www.marketwatch.com/story/financial-crises-happen-about-every-10-years-which-makes-the-archegos-meltdown-unnerving-11617634942?mod=home-page\">Source Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"SPY":"标普500ETF",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite",".DJI":"道琼斯"},"source_url":"https://www.marketwatch.com/story/financial-crises-happen-about-every-10-years-which-makes-the-archegos-meltdown-unnerving-11617634942?mod=home-page","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1101907559","content_text":"No one, for now, can say for sure that the so-called family office’s billions in investment losses won’t spread.\n\nFinancial crises are never quite the same. During the late 1980s, nearly a third of the nation’s savings and loan associations failed, ending with a taxpayer bailout — in 2021 terms — of about $265 billion.\nIn 1997-1998, financial crises in Asia and Russia led to the near meltdown of the largest hedge fund in the U.S. —Long-Term Capital Management(LTCM). Its reach and operating practices were such that Federal Reserve Chairman Alan Greenspan said that when LTCM failed, “he had never seen anything in his lifetime that compared to the terror” he felt. LTCM was deemed “too big to fail,” and he engineered a bailout by 14 major U.S. financial institutions.\nExactly a decade later, too much leverage by some of those very institutions, and the bursting of a U.S. real estate bubble, led to the near collapse of the U.S. financial system. Once again, big banks were deemed too big to fail and taxpayers came to the rescue.\nThe trend? Every 10 years or so, and they all look different. Are we in the early stages of a new crisis now, with the blowup at the family office Archegos Capital Management LP?\nA family office, for the uninitiated, is a private wealth management vehicle for the ultra-wealthy. Here’s what I mean by ultra-wealthy: Consulting firm EY estimates there are some 10,000 family offices globally, but manage, says a separate estimate by market research firm Campden Research, nearly $6 trillion. That $6 trillion is likely far higher now given that it’s based on 2019 data.\nUnregulated money managers\nHere’s the potential danger. Family offices generally aren’t regulated. The 1940 Investment Advisers Act says firms with 15 clients or fewer don’t have to register with the Securities and Exchange Commission. What this means is that trillions of dollars are in play and no one can really say who’s running the money, what it’s invested in, how much leverage is being used, and what kind of counterparty risk may exist. (Counterparty risk is the probability that one party involved in a financial transaction could default on a contractual obligation to someone else.)\nThis appears to be the case with Archegos. The firm bet heavily on certain Chinese stocks, including e-commerce player Vipshop Holdings Ltd.VIPS,-1.19%,U.S.-listed Chinese tutoring company GSX Techedu Inc.GSX,-10.63%and U.S. media companiesViacomCBS Inc.VIAC,-3.90%and Discovery Inc.DISCA,-3.86%,among others. Share prices have tumbled lately, sparking large sales — some $30 billion — by Archegos.\nThe problem is that only about a third of that, or $10 billion, was its own money. We now know that Archegos worked with some of the biggest names on Wall Street, including Credit Suisse Group AGCS,+1.59%,UBS Group AGUBS,+1.01%,Goldman Sachs Group Inc.GS,-1.25%, Morgan StanleyMS,-0.28%,Deutsche Bank AGDB,+0.74%and Nomura Holdings Inc. NMR,+1.87%.\nBut since family offices are largely allowed to operate unregulated, who’s to say how much money is really involved here and what the extent of market risk is? My colleague Mark DeCambre reported last week that Archegos’ true exposures to bad trades could actuallybe closer to $100 billion.\nDanger of counterparty risk\nThis is where counterparty risk comes in. As Archegos’ bets went south, the above banks — looking at losses of their own — hit the firm with margin calls. Deutsche quickly dumped about $4 billion in holdings, while Goldman and Morgan Stanley are also said to have unwound their positions, perhaps limiting their downside.\nSo is this a financial crisis? It doesn’t appear to be. Even so, the Securities and Exchange Commission has opened a preliminary investigation into Archegos and its founder, Bill Hwang.\nOne peer, Tom Lee, the research chief of Fundstrat Global Advisors, calls Hwang one of the “top 10 of the best investment minds” he knows.\nBut federal regulators may have a lesser opinion. In 2012, Hwang’s former hedge fund, Tiger Asia Management, pleaded guilty and paid more than $60 million in penalties after it was accused of trading on illegal tips about Chinese banks. The SEC banned Hwang from managing money on behalf of clients — essentially booting him from the hedge fund industry. So Hwang opened Archegos, and again, family offices aren’t generally aren’t regulated.\nYellen on the case\nThis issue is on Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen’s radar. She said last week that greater oversight of these private corners of the financial industry is needed. The Financial Stability Oversight Council (FSOC), which she oversees, has revived a task force to help agencies better “share data, identify risks and work to strengthen our financial system.”\nMost financial crises end up with American taxpayers getting stuck with the tab. Gains belong to the risk-takers. But losses — they belong to us. To paraphrase Abe Lincoln, family offices — a multi-trillion dollar industry largely allowed to operate in the shadows in a global financial system that is more intertwined than ever — are of the super-wealthy, by the super-wealthy and for the super-wealthy. And no one else.\nThe Archegos collapse may or may not be the beginning of yet another financial crisis. But who’s to say what thousands of other family offices are doing with their trillions, and whether similar problems could blow up?","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{".IXIC":0.9,".SPX":0.9,"SPY":0.9,".DJI":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1127,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0}],"lives":[]}