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李金淼
2021-06-13
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5000-word in-depth analysis, how to analyze the future development space of the industry?
李金淼
2021-05-20
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2021-04-28
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20:54","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"5000-word in-depth analysis, how to analyze the future development space of the industry?","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1134192115","media":" 思想钢印","summary":"为什么同样是食品饮料行业、或同样是医药行业，在同样增速的情况下，有些公司60倍PE起步，有些只有20倍呢？这些问题的答案都与行业发展阶段有关，处于不同阶段的企业，未来的变化、发展空间和终局都可能不同。我在《5000字深度：如何在30分钟内，快速判断一家公司的投资价值？》一文中说：行业空间重点看三个因素，行业所处发展阶段、周期性和永续性，其中最重要的就是“行业所处发展阶段”，我习惯将其分成五个阶段：","content":"<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f59fb09a173927167f5a919497dce449\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"606\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><b>The development stage of the industry</b></p><p>Why do some companies start with 60 times PE, while others only have 20 times PE under the same growth rate in the same food and beverage industry or pharmaceutical industry?</p><p>Why can some Internet companies give 20 times PS when they lose money, but only 5 times after making a profit?</p><p>Why didn't Buffett buy Apple earlier? Why does Hillhouse, which invests in the primary market, invest in the secondary market?</p><p>The answers to these questions are all related to the development stage of the industry. Enterprises at different stages may have different future changes, development space and endgame. For example, you are stronger than a child, but a child can grow, but you can't, so the child's valuation should be higher than yours.</p><p>I wrote in \"5000 words in depth: How to quickly judge the investment value of a company in 30 minutes?\" The article said: The industry space focuses on three factors, the development stage of the industry, cyclicality and sustainability, the most important of which is \"the development stage of the industry\", which I am used to dividing into five stages:</p><p><ul><li>The early days when the space seemed huge but very uncertain, such as hydrogen energy vehicles, third-generation semiconductors, OLED, and quantum computers</p><p></li><li>A period of rapid development after industry consumption explosion, business model formation or technological breakthroughs, such as lithium batteries, photovoltaics, artificial intelligence applications, some pharmaceutical industries, and some new consumer industries</p><p></li><li>Stable growth period: Most industries are at this stage</p><p></li><li>Stagnant development period: Most so-called \"sunset industries\" are at this stage</p><p></li><li>Uncertain prospects: industries that may be replaced or become niche in the future, such as traditional new residential development, traditional supermarkets and department stores, and paper media</p><p></li></ul>This paper takes the industry of domestic listed companies as an example to analyze the investment characteristics of these five stages.</p><p><b>A seemingly large but very uncertain early days of space</b></p><p>In theory, this kind of company should be in the stage of VC and PE investment, which is not considered in the secondary market, but there are two exceptions-the new business model cultivated in the listed company, or the sudden appearance of a new application direction in the products of the listed company.</p><p>Take the community group buying business developed by Meituan and Pinduoduo as an example. It was in this \"uncertain\" stage before 2020. The reason why it attracted the attention of investors is that its industry space and business model are very attractive:</p><p>1. Industry space: Focusing on low-priced daily necessities, high frequency and high stickiness, facing the most basic needs of the widest range of people, focusing on sinking markets, avoiding competition between e-commerce and traditional business giants (referring to two years ago), the combination of \"online + offline\" scenarios has many characteristics of large space just needs sustainability.</p><p>2. Business model: The \"pre-sale + self-pickup\" model avoids all the high-cost parts of the current retail system, does not use \"last mile distribution\", has no inventory, a simple central warehouse, and integrates into the social system of consumers with the special role of \"group leader\".<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f2bbf64037287d4907ae8d0015a639b4\" tg-width=\"800\" tg-height=\"359\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">Just need high frequency, avoid giants, integrate into social relationships... These are the characteristics of early industries with explosive potential.</p><p>Although the current community group buying already has a relatively mature operating model and profit potential, when community group buying just emerged before 2020, the business more reflected the uncertainty of early projects: the uncertainty of social chains, online and offline The fragility of the combination, the difficulty of operation and management, the degree of economies of scale... If it weren't for the epidemic at the beginning of last year, the uncertainty period of community group buying might have been longer.</p><p>When industries or products at similar stages appear in the secondary market, they often have the characteristics of thematic investment and concept speculation, such as two recent themes:</p><p>Script killing: Situational socialization under the cloak of games weakens competitiveness and may become a new form of entertainment product with a longer life cycle.</p><p>Metaverse: An immersive virtual space in which users can carry out rich activities such as culture, social interaction, and entertainment, integrating technologies or business models such as blockchain, games, network computing power, and VR.</p><p>The investment essence of such companies belongs to the VC field, and it is difficult for one out of ten companies to succeed. For ordinary investors, intervention should be avoided.</p><p>In the massage chair industry in 2017, Rongtai Health chose to increase investment in the \"shared massage chair\" business at that time. With this concept, the revenue growth and valuation were higher than those of the larger Aojiahua, but one year later, The \"sharing economy\" ebbed. Although shared massage chairs became one of the few products that could generate positive cash flow, because the industry barriers were too low and the profit margins were all taken away by shopping malls, the company had to consider divesting this business.</p><p><b>Industry outbreak period</b></p><p>At this stage, due to the verification of demand, technology or business model, the running of products and the availability of funds, the entire market is in an explosive period, and players from all walks of life have entered.</p><p>For example, in industries that have recently entered an explosive period: community group buying is a verified business model, medical beauty and new energy vehicles are an explosion in downstream demand, lithium batteries and photovoltaics have both technological breakthroughs, and the cost reduction is economic.</p><p>The outbreak of manufacturing industry has a certain degree of imbalance, which is often very sudden. Generally, individual investors are not easy to grasp. A better direction is to choose new consumption that has a less violent outbreak period but lasts for a long time, such as frozen baked goods.</p><p>Bakery chain stores are not a good business model. I explained the reason in the article \"A bad business model is an\" accident-prone area \"in investment.\" Bread takes a long time to make, uses many materials, and there are many tricks. It is difficult for the headquarters to control the quality of franchisees' accessories. \"<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c163f94533343da45c172b0937adaf77\" tg-width=\"771\" tg-height=\"623\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>If the downstream is weak and scattered, there is hope that a strong upstream 2B manufacturing enterprise will emerge. Frozen bakery manufacturers represented by Ligao Foods have begun to provide frozen finished products and semi-finished products to downstream bakeries in recent years, especially the latter. After simple proofing and baking, the store can become baked goods with exactly the same taste as freshly made bread, with faster time, more controllable quality, more uniform taste and lower cost.</p><p>In industries that are in the explosive period, the biggest problem in investment is that valuations are out of control, such as medical beauty.</p><p>It is difficult for industries with explosive growth to estimate the height of their ceilings and the duration of high growth, but the certainty is no less than that of mature industries, resulting in great elasticity in valuation, and stock prices are often determined by the most optimistic investors.</p><p>Once the valuation of industry leaders is out of control, the profit-making effect can easily trigger thematic investment and trend speculative funds, and companies with average fundamentals in the sector will take turns to speculate. Investors must distinguish between leading varieties that have performance but are overvalued and varieties that follow the trend of speculation.</p><p>It should be noted that the boundaries between the various stages of the industry are not absolute, and the industry that has entered the outbreak period has not landed here.</p><p>Community group buying has shown strong commercialization capabilities last year, and its commercial space looks much larger than that of traditional fresh food e-commerce. However, the sudden change in policy at the end of the year may bring community group buying back to the first stage, or its scale may be limited from now on. In a subdivided field-of course, it may just make the industry more standardized, in short, it increases uncertainty.</p><p><b>Period of steady growth</b></p><p>Although the first two stages are the cradle of \"ten-fold stocks\", ordinary investors may not be able to grasp them. The industries of most A-share companies are in the \"stable growth period\" stage, and Buffett's moat theory basically belongs to companies at this stage.</p><p>In the short term, the company's performance at this stage is not as explosive as the previous two stages, but in the long run, the income from investing at this stage is not low. A shares are currently more similar to the golden age of Buffett's investment.</p><p>The reason is that China has a huge population, complex urban levels and unified culture, and consumer culture has conductivity from high-level to low-level. Many products have been popular in first-tier cities for several years, second-and third-tier cities for several years, and then spread to fourth-tier cities, and the growth period is longer than other markets. The migration of population from low-tier cities to high-tier cities, rural areas to cities, and the global competitiveness of Chinese manufacturing have made this process more complicated and long, resulting in most mature industries experiencing at least ten years of growth period.</p><p>Therefore, venture capital such as Hillhouse Capital, which was originally engaged in the primary market, has also devoted its main energy to the secondary market in recent years, and quite a few of them are companies in the mature stage.</p><p>Take major household appliances as an example. This is the earliest industry with global competitiveness in China. Twenty-five years ago, the growth stocks were Changhong and Konka, 15 years ago it was Gree, and five years ago it was Midea and Boss. Now it's Haier's turn again. A mid-to-high-end company with overseas expansion ability.</p><p>This has led many investors to regard the home appliance industry as a mature industry, and there is still a lot of room for penetration rate. Air-conditioning leaders with good competitive landscape may still have a growth of more than 7% in ten years.</p><p>From the perspective of categories, from black electricity that was the first to achieve breakthroughs, to white electricity that established advantages next, to kitchen appliances that rose with real estate, from these economies of scale, to small home appliances that rely on industrial chain efficiency and functional innovation, There are also smart home appliances that have joined the wave of intelligence.</p><p>The coexistence of category extension and regional differences has created the depth and breadth of the market. Leading companies that have a foothold in mature categories are more likely to get out of the second growth curve-the boss develops dishwashers, Haier cultivates high-end brands, Midea deploys small household appliances, and TCL enters the upstream panel industry.</p><p>The growth of mature industries depends on category expansion, so for enterprises entering this stage, investors need to shift the company's observation perspective from the level of industry space and product competitiveness to the level of entrepreneurship, management and organizational culture. Only enterprises that solve the management radius can have the ability to continue to expand. Of course, this is not an industry-level issue, leave it until the analysis of management capabilities.</p><p><b>Low growth period</b></p><p>In the past, our definition of sunset industry was more influenced by western economic circles, which was equivalent to traditional primary manufacturing industries such as textile, steel, mining and chemical machinery. The actual reason was that the primary manufacturing industries in Europe and America lost their competitiveness due to high costs and were transferred to Asia in globalization. The so-called \"sunset\" is not that the demand of this industry declines or disappears, but that enterprises outsource manufacturing links into supply chains, causing these industries to move to other countries.</p><p>Moreover, every industrial transfer of globalization bears the brunt of this kind of traditional primary manufacturing industry, which gives investors a profound influence on the sunset industry.</p><p>In fact, to talk about traditional and primary agriculture, agriculture is more like a sunset industry, but no country will allow such industries to globalize. In addition, the United States has a cost advantage, so there is no \"sunset\". This is the definition of a typical western perspective.</p><p>Therefore, the investment opportunities in this kind of primary manufacturing industry are not \"sunset\". I think China is likely to become the \"terminal\" for the transfer of traditional primary manufacturing industry, and this kind of \"sunset industry\" will become a \"sunset industry\" in China, based on the following three reasons:</p><p>First, we can no longer find regions with more comparative advantages</p><p>The traditional primary manufacturing industry has gone from Europe and America to Japan, then to the \"Asian Four Little Dragons\" and finally to China, every time because the latter has a \"comparative advantage\". Comparative advantages compare not only labor costs, but also infrastructure, domestic demand market size, unified market, government governance capacity, etc. However, looking around the world, almost no region can fully accept the transfer of China's traditional manufacturing industry.</p><p>Second, the optimization of competition pattern and management ability of traditional primary manufacturing industry</p><p>For unprofitable industries, as long as the competitive landscape is optimized to a certain extent, the industry is cleared, and oligarchs emerge, the trend of industrial chain transfer can also be delayed. This is because giants have profits to integrate industrial chains to reduce costs, capital to acquire foreign companies, technology to set up factories abroad, and global production capacity layout.</p><p>Buffett's case of investing in Berkshire's huge losses in the 1970s gave everyone the impression that the American textile industry failed in globalization. However, investors who made a lot of money by buying Shenzhou International in recent years enjoyed precisely the dividends of China's textile and garment processing industry production capacity transferred to Vietnam and India.</p><p>The transfer of production capacity has different effects on enterprises. In those days, European and American textile and garment enterprises couldn't go out, but today's Chinese textile and garment industry, although the production capacity has been transferred out, enterprises are still these enterprises. What goes out is enterprises, and what brings back is profits. The reason is precisely the \"manufacturing genes\" in the blood of Chinese enterprises mentioned in the previous article, which can be suitable for different cultural soils.</p><p>Third, the transformation of traditional primary manufacturing industry by new technology</p><p>In the previous manufacturing transfers, whether they were produced in the United States, Japan or South Korea, there was no essential change in their manufacturing methods except for more advanced machinery and equipment and some upgrades in products.</p><p>But after the manufacturing industry moved to China, it coincided with the Internet tide entering the 2B manufacturing field. Whether it was \"mouse + cement\" ten years ago or \"Internet plus\" five years ago, the production mode of manufacturing industry has changed essentially.</p><p>Taking Guolian Co., Ltd. as an example, it solves the problem of low-cost procurement for small and medium-sized enterprises, gathers many downstream enterprises, and uses the \"centralized procurement\" model to bargain with upstream suppliers, so that small and medium-sized enterprises can also obtain the procurement cost advantages of large enterprises.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a54db6ef986216d7d0ffb068c2eba690\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"513\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>This model requires that the Internet platform has accumulated a large number of professional customers, and can provide highly vertical and highly segmented products, and at the same time provide low-cost logistics and warehousing services. This requires the technical accumulation of digital and cloud services, and there are certain barriers.</p><p>From logistics to procurement to production, the transformation of traditional manufacturing industries by the industrial Internet is likely to make these traditional industries no longer rely too much on low costs and paying environmental costs, and stay in China forever, or keep profits in China.</p><p>If we only look at the growth rate of the industry, liquor is the standard \"sunset industry\". For this type of industry that does not grow, the advantage lies in the strong certainty of the leader caused by the competitive landscape. Fortunately, the financing demand has declined, the profit growth rate is higher than the revenue growth rate, and the shareholder return is greater than the scale growth. On the contrary, it is an easy opportunity for ordinary investors to grasp.</p><p><b>Uncertain prospects</b></p><p>The traditional primary manufacturing industry is not \"sunset\" at all. The real \"sunset industry\" is often due to the emergence of new technologies, new products and new business models, entering industries with declining demand, similar to traditional cameras, ordinary watches, ordinary generic drugs, previous generation electronic products, and so on.</p><p>It is easy to judge the industries that have experienced declining demand, but the difficulty is the industries with unclear future demand, such as the development of new houses in the real estate industry.</p><p>This is not to say that real estate is a sunset industry. Of course, real estate is a sustainable industry. However, my country's current new house development model is facing the problem of unclear future demand. My country's per capita housing area ranks fifth in the world, and it is facing a population decline. In the future, the proportion of second-hand houses will be higher and higher. Coupled with the 70-year property rights problem, it is difficult to predict the future development model of new houses.</p><p>When investing, don't bet on your luck in an industry with unclear demand. At that time, Changhong underestimated the speed of LCD TV replacement, hoarded a large number of color tubes, and wanted to monopolize upstream materials through price wars to expand its share. As a result, it accelerated the replacement of LCD TVs and fell into a financial crisis.</p><p><b>Industry development is like flying chess</b></p><p>The following is Kim Kardashian's birthday present to his son-a mini-excavator from Sany Heavy Industry. This is not a celebrity funny. The mini-excavator was on the consumption list of middle-class families in the United States last year. It was a new online celebrity after the big House, the big swimming pool and the big lawn-without an excavator at home, you don't know what to talk to your neighbors when you go out.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/acf6163cc8f6105ee5b459116d6225a1\" tg-width=\"358\" tg-height=\"428\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>Excavators were once considered a sunset industry, believing that demand would shrink with the reduction of infrastructure projects. In fact, not only in the United States, but also in Japan, micro excavators have become omnipotent \"artifacts\" due to the aging population.</p><p>Although this article lists five stages, in the real world, the development of the industry is like \"flying chess\". Only by throwing a \"6\" at the beginning can you really start. Along the way, you mainly focus on advancing. Occasionally, you can \"fly continuously\", but you often encounter the capital punishment of \"taking a few steps back\", even being \"stopped once\" for a foul, or even being \"beaten back to the base camp\".</p><p>The biggest trouble still comes from competitors, especially when everyone is crowded at the same stage, they will be killed if they are not careful. When you take the lead at the beginning, you may not be able to carry the lead to the end, but in the second half, after opening a considerable gap, as long as you don't make fatal mistakes, you will probably bring the lead to the end.</p><p>However, no matter how close you are to the endgame ahead of your opponent, as long as your opponent has the ability to overturn the table and reopen a game, all your advantages will be gone on a new battlefield, which is also the cruelest, most exciting and constantly attracting new players in the game of commercial competition.</p>","source":"sxgy","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>5000-word in-depth analysis, how to analyze the future development space of the industry?</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n5000-word in-depth analysis, how to analyze the future development space of the industry?\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\"> 思想钢印</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-06-07 20:54</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f59fb09a173927167f5a919497dce449\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"606\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><b>The development stage of the industry</b></p><p>Why do some companies start with 60 times PE, while others only have 20 times PE under the same growth rate in the same food and beverage industry or pharmaceutical industry?</p><p>Why can some Internet companies give 20 times PS when they lose money, but only 5 times after making a profit?</p><p>Why didn't Buffett buy Apple earlier? Why does Hillhouse, which invests in the primary market, invest in the secondary market?</p><p>The answers to these questions are all related to the development stage of the industry. Enterprises at different stages may have different future changes, development space and endgame. For example, you are stronger than a child, but a child can grow, but you can't, so the child's valuation should be higher than yours.</p><p>I wrote in \"5000 words in depth: How to quickly judge the investment value of a company in 30 minutes?\" The article said: The industry space focuses on three factors, the development stage of the industry, cyclicality and sustainability, the most important of which is \"the development stage of the industry\", which I am used to dividing into five stages:</p><p><ul><li>The early days when the space seemed huge but very uncertain, such as hydrogen energy vehicles, third-generation semiconductors, OLED, and quantum computers</p><p></li><li>A period of rapid development after industry consumption explosion, business model formation or technological breakthroughs, such as lithium batteries, photovoltaics, artificial intelligence applications, some pharmaceutical industries, and some new consumer industries</p><p></li><li>Stable growth period: Most industries are at this stage</p><p></li><li>Stagnant development period: Most so-called \"sunset industries\" are at this stage</p><p></li><li>Uncertain prospects: industries that may be replaced or become niche in the future, such as traditional new residential development, traditional supermarkets and department stores, and paper media</p><p></li></ul>This paper takes the industry of domestic listed companies as an example to analyze the investment characteristics of these five stages.</p><p><b>A seemingly large but very uncertain early days of space</b></p><p>In theory, this kind of company should be in the stage of VC and PE investment, which is not considered in the secondary market, but there are two exceptions-the new business model cultivated in the listed company, or the sudden appearance of a new application direction in the products of the listed company.</p><p>Take the community group buying business developed by Meituan and Pinduoduo as an example. It was in this \"uncertain\" stage before 2020. The reason why it attracted the attention of investors is that its industry space and business model are very attractive:</p><p>1. Industry space: Focusing on low-priced daily necessities, high frequency and high stickiness, facing the most basic needs of the widest range of people, focusing on sinking markets, avoiding competition between e-commerce and traditional business giants (referring to two years ago), the combination of \"online + offline\" scenarios has many characteristics of large space just needs sustainability.</p><p>2. Business model: The \"pre-sale + self-pickup\" model avoids all the high-cost parts of the current retail system, does not use \"last mile distribution\", has no inventory, a simple central warehouse, and integrates into the social system of consumers with the special role of \"group leader\".<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f2bbf64037287d4907ae8d0015a639b4\" tg-width=\"800\" tg-height=\"359\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">Just need high frequency, avoid giants, integrate into social relationships... These are the characteristics of early industries with explosive potential.</p><p>Although the current community group buying already has a relatively mature operating model and profit potential, when community group buying just emerged before 2020, the business more reflected the uncertainty of early projects: the uncertainty of social chains, online and offline The fragility of the combination, the difficulty of operation and management, the degree of economies of scale... If it weren't for the epidemic at the beginning of last year, the uncertainty period of community group buying might have been longer.</p><p>When industries or products at similar stages appear in the secondary market, they often have the characteristics of thematic investment and concept speculation, such as two recent themes:</p><p>Script killing: Situational socialization under the cloak of games weakens competitiveness and may become a new form of entertainment product with a longer life cycle.</p><p>Metaverse: An immersive virtual space in which users can carry out rich activities such as culture, social interaction, and entertainment, integrating technologies or business models such as blockchain, games, network computing power, and VR.</p><p>The investment essence of such companies belongs to the VC field, and it is difficult for one out of ten companies to succeed. For ordinary investors, intervention should be avoided.</p><p>In the massage chair industry in 2017, Rongtai Health chose to increase investment in the \"shared massage chair\" business at that time. With this concept, the revenue growth and valuation were higher than those of the larger Aojiahua, but one year later, The \"sharing economy\" ebbed. Although shared massage chairs became one of the few products that could generate positive cash flow, because the industry barriers were too low and the profit margins were all taken away by shopping malls, the company had to consider divesting this business.</p><p><b>Industry outbreak period</b></p><p>At this stage, due to the verification of demand, technology or business model, the running of products and the availability of funds, the entire market is in an explosive period, and players from all walks of life have entered.</p><p>For example, in industries that have recently entered an explosive period: community group buying is a verified business model, medical beauty and new energy vehicles are an explosion in downstream demand, lithium batteries and photovoltaics have both technological breakthroughs, and the cost reduction is economic.</p><p>The outbreak of manufacturing industry has a certain degree of imbalance, which is often very sudden. Generally, individual investors are not easy to grasp. A better direction is to choose new consumption that has a less violent outbreak period but lasts for a long time, such as frozen baked goods.</p><p>Bakery chain stores are not a good business model. I explained the reason in the article \"A bad business model is an\" accident-prone area \"in investment.\" Bread takes a long time to make, uses many materials, and there are many tricks. It is difficult for the headquarters to control the quality of franchisees' accessories. \"<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c163f94533343da45c172b0937adaf77\" tg-width=\"771\" tg-height=\"623\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>If the downstream is weak and scattered, there is hope that a strong upstream 2B manufacturing enterprise will emerge. Frozen bakery manufacturers represented by Ligao Foods have begun to provide frozen finished products and semi-finished products to downstream bakeries in recent years, especially the latter. After simple proofing and baking, the store can become baked goods with exactly the same taste as freshly made bread, with faster time, more controllable quality, more uniform taste and lower cost.</p><p>In industries that are in the explosive period, the biggest problem in investment is that valuations are out of control, such as medical beauty.</p><p>It is difficult for industries with explosive growth to estimate the height of their ceilings and the duration of high growth, but the certainty is no less than that of mature industries, resulting in great elasticity in valuation, and stock prices are often determined by the most optimistic investors.</p><p>Once the valuation of industry leaders is out of control, the profit-making effect can easily trigger thematic investment and trend speculative funds, and companies with average fundamentals in the sector will take turns to speculate. Investors must distinguish between leading varieties that have performance but are overvalued and varieties that follow the trend of speculation.</p><p>It should be noted that the boundaries between the various stages of the industry are not absolute, and the industry that has entered the outbreak period has not landed here.</p><p>Community group buying has shown strong commercialization capabilities last year, and its commercial space looks much larger than that of traditional fresh food e-commerce. However, the sudden change in policy at the end of the year may bring community group buying back to the first stage, or its scale may be limited from now on. In a subdivided field-of course, it may just make the industry more standardized, in short, it increases uncertainty.</p><p><b>Period of steady growth</b></p><p>Although the first two stages are the cradle of \"ten-fold stocks\", ordinary investors may not be able to grasp them. The industries of most A-share companies are in the \"stable growth period\" stage, and Buffett's moat theory basically belongs to companies at this stage.</p><p>In the short term, the company's performance at this stage is not as explosive as the previous two stages, but in the long run, the income from investing at this stage is not low. A shares are currently more similar to the golden age of Buffett's investment.</p><p>The reason is that China has a huge population, complex urban levels and unified culture, and consumer culture has conductivity from high-level to low-level. Many products have been popular in first-tier cities for several years, second-and third-tier cities for several years, and then spread to fourth-tier cities, and the growth period is longer than other markets. The migration of population from low-tier cities to high-tier cities, rural areas to cities, and the global competitiveness of Chinese manufacturing have made this process more complicated and long, resulting in most mature industries experiencing at least ten years of growth period.</p><p>Therefore, venture capital such as Hillhouse Capital, which was originally engaged in the primary market, has also devoted its main energy to the secondary market in recent years, and quite a few of them are companies in the mature stage.</p><p>Take major household appliances as an example. This is the earliest industry with global competitiveness in China. Twenty-five years ago, the growth stocks were Changhong and Konka, 15 years ago it was Gree, and five years ago it was Midea and Boss. Now it's Haier's turn again. A mid-to-high-end company with overseas expansion ability.</p><p>This has led many investors to regard the home appliance industry as a mature industry, and there is still a lot of room for penetration rate. Air-conditioning leaders with good competitive landscape may still have a growth of more than 7% in ten years.</p><p>From the perspective of categories, from black electricity that was the first to achieve breakthroughs, to white electricity that established advantages next, to kitchen appliances that rose with real estate, from these economies of scale, to small home appliances that rely on industrial chain efficiency and functional innovation, There are also smart home appliances that have joined the wave of intelligence.</p><p>The coexistence of category extension and regional differences has created the depth and breadth of the market. Leading companies that have a foothold in mature categories are more likely to get out of the second growth curve-the boss develops dishwashers, Haier cultivates high-end brands, Midea deploys small household appliances, and TCL enters the upstream panel industry.</p><p>The growth of mature industries depends on category expansion, so for enterprises entering this stage, investors need to shift the company's observation perspective from the level of industry space and product competitiveness to the level of entrepreneurship, management and organizational culture. Only enterprises that solve the management radius can have the ability to continue to expand. Of course, this is not an industry-level issue, leave it until the analysis of management capabilities.</p><p><b>Low growth period</b></p><p>In the past, our definition of sunset industry was more influenced by western economic circles, which was equivalent to traditional primary manufacturing industries such as textile, steel, mining and chemical machinery. The actual reason was that the primary manufacturing industries in Europe and America lost their competitiveness due to high costs and were transferred to Asia in globalization. The so-called \"sunset\" is not that the demand of this industry declines or disappears, but that enterprises outsource manufacturing links into supply chains, causing these industries to move to other countries.</p><p>Moreover, every industrial transfer of globalization bears the brunt of this kind of traditional primary manufacturing industry, which gives investors a profound influence on the sunset industry.</p><p>In fact, to talk about traditional and primary agriculture, agriculture is more like a sunset industry, but no country will allow such industries to globalize. In addition, the United States has a cost advantage, so there is no \"sunset\". This is the definition of a typical western perspective.</p><p>Therefore, the investment opportunities in this kind of primary manufacturing industry are not \"sunset\". I think China is likely to become the \"terminal\" for the transfer of traditional primary manufacturing industry, and this kind of \"sunset industry\" will become a \"sunset industry\" in China, based on the following three reasons:</p><p>First, we can no longer find regions with more comparative advantages</p><p>The traditional primary manufacturing industry has gone from Europe and America to Japan, then to the \"Asian Four Little Dragons\" and finally to China, every time because the latter has a \"comparative advantage\". Comparative advantages compare not only labor costs, but also infrastructure, domestic demand market size, unified market, government governance capacity, etc. However, looking around the world, almost no region can fully accept the transfer of China's traditional manufacturing industry.</p><p>Second, the optimization of competition pattern and management ability of traditional primary manufacturing industry</p><p>For unprofitable industries, as long as the competitive landscape is optimized to a certain extent, the industry is cleared, and oligarchs emerge, the trend of industrial chain transfer can also be delayed. This is because giants have profits to integrate industrial chains to reduce costs, capital to acquire foreign companies, technology to set up factories abroad, and global production capacity layout.</p><p>Buffett's case of investing in Berkshire's huge losses in the 1970s gave everyone the impression that the American textile industry failed in globalization. However, investors who made a lot of money by buying Shenzhou International in recent years enjoyed precisely the dividends of China's textile and garment processing industry production capacity transferred to Vietnam and India.</p><p>The transfer of production capacity has different effects on enterprises. In those days, European and American textile and garment enterprises couldn't go out, but today's Chinese textile and garment industry, although the production capacity has been transferred out, enterprises are still these enterprises. What goes out is enterprises, and what brings back is profits. The reason is precisely the \"manufacturing genes\" in the blood of Chinese enterprises mentioned in the previous article, which can be suitable for different cultural soils.</p><p>Third, the transformation of traditional primary manufacturing industry by new technology</p><p>In the previous manufacturing transfers, whether they were produced in the United States, Japan or South Korea, there was no essential change in their manufacturing methods except for more advanced machinery and equipment and some upgrades in products.</p><p>But after the manufacturing industry moved to China, it coincided with the Internet tide entering the 2B manufacturing field. Whether it was \"mouse + cement\" ten years ago or \"Internet plus\" five years ago, the production mode of manufacturing industry has changed essentially.</p><p>Taking Guolian Co., Ltd. as an example, it solves the problem of low-cost procurement for small and medium-sized enterprises, gathers many downstream enterprises, and uses the \"centralized procurement\" model to bargain with upstream suppliers, so that small and medium-sized enterprises can also obtain the procurement cost advantages of large enterprises.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a54db6ef986216d7d0ffb068c2eba690\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"513\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>This model requires that the Internet platform has accumulated a large number of professional customers, and can provide highly vertical and highly segmented products, and at the same time provide low-cost logistics and warehousing services. This requires the technical accumulation of digital and cloud services, and there are certain barriers.</p><p>From logistics to procurement to production, the transformation of traditional manufacturing industries by the industrial Internet is likely to make these traditional industries no longer rely too much on low costs and paying environmental costs, and stay in China forever, or keep profits in China.</p><p>If we only look at the growth rate of the industry, liquor is the standard \"sunset industry\". For this type of industry that does not grow, the advantage lies in the strong certainty of the leader caused by the competitive landscape. Fortunately, the financing demand has declined, the profit growth rate is higher than the revenue growth rate, and the shareholder return is greater than the scale growth. On the contrary, it is an easy opportunity for ordinary investors to grasp.</p><p><b>Uncertain prospects</b></p><p>The traditional primary manufacturing industry is not \"sunset\" at all. The real \"sunset industry\" is often due to the emergence of new technologies, new products and new business models, entering industries with declining demand, similar to traditional cameras, ordinary watches, ordinary generic drugs, previous generation electronic products, and so on.</p><p>It is easy to judge the industries that have experienced declining demand, but the difficulty is the industries with unclear future demand, such as the development of new houses in the real estate industry.</p><p>This is not to say that real estate is a sunset industry. Of course, real estate is a sustainable industry. However, my country's current new house development model is facing the problem of unclear future demand. My country's per capita housing area ranks fifth in the world, and it is facing a population decline. In the future, the proportion of second-hand houses will be higher and higher. Coupled with the 70-year property rights problem, it is difficult to predict the future development model of new houses.</p><p>When investing, don't bet on your luck in an industry with unclear demand. At that time, Changhong underestimated the speed of LCD TV replacement, hoarded a large number of color tubes, and wanted to monopolize upstream materials through price wars to expand its share. As a result, it accelerated the replacement of LCD TVs and fell into a financial crisis.</p><p><b>Industry development is like flying chess</b></p><p>The following is Kim Kardashian's birthday present to his son-a mini-excavator from Sany Heavy Industry. This is not a celebrity funny. The mini-excavator was on the consumption list of middle-class families in the United States last year. It was a new online celebrity after the big House, the big swimming pool and the big lawn-without an excavator at home, you don't know what to talk to your neighbors when you go out.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/acf6163cc8f6105ee5b459116d6225a1\" tg-width=\"358\" tg-height=\"428\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>Excavators were once considered a sunset industry, believing that demand would shrink with the reduction of infrastructure projects. In fact, not only in the United States, but also in Japan, micro excavators have become omnipotent \"artifacts\" due to the aging population.</p><p>Although this article lists five stages, in the real world, the development of the industry is like \"flying chess\". Only by throwing a \"6\" at the beginning can you really start. Along the way, you mainly focus on advancing. Occasionally, you can \"fly continuously\", but you often encounter the capital punishment of \"taking a few steps back\", even being \"stopped once\" for a foul, or even being \"beaten back to the base camp\".</p><p>The biggest trouble still comes from competitors, especially when everyone is crowded at the same stage, they will be killed if they are not careful. When you take the lead at the beginning, you may not be able to carry the lead to the end, but in the second half, after opening a considerable gap, as long as you don't make fatal mistakes, you will probably bring the lead to the end.</p><p>However, no matter how close you are to the endgame ahead of your opponent, as long as your opponent has the ability to overturn the table and reopen a game, all your advantages will be gone on a new battlefield, which is also the cruelest, most exciting and constantly attracting new players in the game of commercial competition.</p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> source：<a href=\"https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s/vjFcnbuu3MUCEkb115384Q\"> 思想钢印</a></p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f59fb09a173927167f5a919497dce449","relate_stocks":{"000001.SH":"上证指数"},"source_url":"https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s/vjFcnbuu3MUCEkb115384Q","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1134192115","content_text":"行业所处发展阶段为什么同样是食品饮料行业、或同样是医药行业，在同样增速的情况下，有些公司60倍PE起步，有些只有20倍呢？为什么有些互联网公司亏损时，可以给20倍PS，盈利后，却只能给5倍？为什么巴菲特不早点买苹果？为什么投一级市场的高瓴要来投二级市场？这些问题的答案都与行业发展阶段有关，处于不同阶段的企业，未来的变化、发展空间和终局都可能不同。打个比方，你比小孩子力气大，但是小孩子能长个儿，你却不能，所以小孩子的估值就应该比你高。我在《5000字深度：如何在30分钟内，快速判断一家公司的投资价值？》一文中说：行业空间重点看三个因素，行业所处发展阶段、周期性和永续性，其中最重要的就是“行业所处发展阶段”，我习惯将其分成五个阶段：空间看似很大但非常不确定的早期，比如氢能源车、第三代半导体、OLED、量子计算机行业消费爆发、商业模式成型或者技术突破后的高速发展期，比如锂电、光伏、人工智能应用、部分医药行业、部分新消费行业稳定增长期：大部分行业都处于这个阶段发展停滞期：大部分所谓“夕阳行业”都处于这个阶段前景不明期：未来有可能被替代或大众变小众的行业，比如传统的新住宅开发、传统的超市百货、纸媒本文就以国内上市公司的行业为例，分析一下这五个阶段的投资特点。空间看似很大但非常不确定的早期这一类公司理论上应该是VC、PE投资的阶段，不在二级市场考虑范围内，但有两种情况例外——上市公司体内培育的新商业模式，或者上市公司的产品忽然出现了某个新应用方向。以美团和拼多多发力的社区团购业务为例，2020年之前就处于这一“不确定”的阶段，之所以引起投资者的注意，因为其行业空间和商业模式都非常有吸引力：1、行业空间：主打低价生活必需品，高频高粘性，面对的是最广泛人群的最基本的需求，主打下沉市场，避开电商和传统商业巨头的竞争（指的是两年前），“线上+线下”场景结合，具有大空间刚需永续性的多个特点。2、商业模式：“预售+自提”的模式避开所有现行零售体系高成本的部分，不用“最后一公里配送”，无库存、简单的中心仓，并以“团长”这个特殊的角色融入消费者的社交体系。刚需高频、避开巨头、融入社交关系……，这些都是有爆发潜力的早期行业的特点。虽然现在的社区团购已经具备比较成熟的运营模式和盈利潜力，但在2020年前社区团购刚刚兴起时，业务更多体现出早期项目的不确定性：社交链的不确定性、线上线下结合的脆弱性、运营管理的难度、规模经济的程度……，如果不是去年年初的疫情，社区团购的不确定期可能还要更长。二级市场出现类似阶段的行业或产品时，常常有主题投资和概念炒作的特点，比如近期两个题材：剧本杀：在游戏外衣下的情境社交，弱化竞技性，有可能成为有较长生命周期的新形态的娱乐产品。元宇宙：沉浸式的虚拟空间，用户可在其中进行文化、社交、娱乐等丰富的活动，将区块链、游戏、网络算力、VR等技术或商业模式融为一体。这类公司的投资本质是属于VC领域，十个中难以成功一个，对于一般投资者，应该避免介入。2017年的按摩椅行业，荣泰健康当年选择加大投入当时的“共享按摩椅”业务，凭借这一概念，营收增长和估值都高于规模更大的奥佳华，但一年后，“共享经济”退潮，共享按摩椅虽然成为少数能产生正现金流的产品，但因为行业壁垒太低，利润空间全被商场拿走了，公司不得不考虑剥离这一块业务。行业爆发期到了这个阶段，由于需求、技术或商业模式被验证，产品跑通、资金到位，导致整个市场处于爆发期，各路玩家纷纷进入。比如近期进入爆发期的行业中：社区团购是商业模式被验证，医美和新能源车是下游需求爆发，锂电和光伏兼具了技术突破，成本降到具有经济效益。制造业的爆发有一定的不均衡性，往往非常突然，一般个人投资者不太好把握，更好的方向是选择爆发期没那么猛烈但持续时间比较长的新消费，比如冷冻烘焙食品。面包连锁店不是好的商业模式，我在《不好的商业模式，是投资中的“事故多发地段”》一文讲过理由，“面包的制作工艺时间长、用料多，花样又多，总部很难控制加盟商的辅料的品质”。下游弱而散，就有希望出现一个强有力的上游2B的制造业企业，以立高食品为代表的冷冻烘焙厂商，近年来开始向下游的面包房提供冷冻成品和半成品，特别是后者，门店经过简单醒发、烘烤即可成为与现做面包口感完全一致的烘焙食品，时间更快，品质更可控、口感更统一、成本更低。处于爆发期的行业，投资上最大的问题是估值失控，比如医美。爆发式增长的行业很难估计其天花板的高度，以及高增长延续的时间，但确定性却不亚于成熟性行业，导致估值的弹性很大，股价往往由最乐观的投资者决定。一旦行业龙头的估值失控，赚钱效应很容易引发主题投资和趋势投机资金，把板块内基本面一般的公司轮流炒一遍。投资者务必要分清有业绩但高估的龙头品种，和跟风炒作的品种。需要说明的是，行业各阶段之间的界限并不绝对，进入爆发期的行业也并非就此上岸。社区团购去年已经显示了强大的商业化能力，其商业空间看上去远大于传统的生鲜电商，但年底的政策风云突变，有可能把社区团购打回到第一阶段，或者其规模从此限制在一个细分的领域——当然，也可能只是让行业更规范，总之是增加了不确定性。稳定增长期虽然前两个阶段是“十倍股”的摇篮，但一般投资者不一定把握得了。A股的绝大部分公司的行业都处于“稳定增长期”的阶段，巴菲特的护城河理论也基本上属于这个阶段的企业。短期而言，这个阶段的公司业绩爆发性不如前两个阶段，但长期而言，投资此阶段的收益并不低，A股目前更类似于巴菲特投资的黄金时代。原因在于，中国有巨大的人口量、复杂的城市层次和统一的文化，而消费文化具有从高阶到低阶的传导性，很多产品在一线城市火几年，二、三线城市火几年，再传到四线城市，成长期也比其他市场长。而人口从低线城市向高线城市迁移，农村向城市迁移，加上中国制造具备的全球竞争力，又让这个过程更加复杂和漫长，导致大部分成熟行业都要经历至少十年以上的成长期。所以像高瓴资本这样原本做一级市场的风险投资，近几年也把主要精力投身二级市场，且相当一部分都是处于成熟阶段的企业。以大家电为例，这是中国最早具备全球竞争力的行业，25年前的成长股是长虹、康佳，15年前是格力，5年前是美的、老板，现在又重新轮到海尔一类定位中高端，具备海外扩张能力的公司。这就导致很多投资者视之为成熟行业的家电行业，渗透率仍有很大空间，竞争格局好的空调龙头，可能还有十年7%以上的增长。再从品类上看，从最早获得突破的黑电，到其次建立优势的白电，再到随房地产起来的厨电，从这些规模经济领域，发展到依赖产业链效率和功能创新的小家电，还有加入智能化浪潮的智能家电。品类延伸与区域差异并存，造就了市场的深度与广度，在成熟品类站住脚的头部企业更容易走出第二增长曲线——老板发力洗碗机，海尔培养高端品牌，美的布局小家电，TCL进军上游面板行业。成熟行业增长靠品类扩张，所以进入这个阶段的企业，投资者需要把公司的观察视角，从行业空间与产品竞争力的层面，转移到企业家精神与管理和组织文化的层面。只有解决管理半径的企业，才能拥有持续扩张的能力。当然，这就不是行业层面的问题了，留到分析管理能力的时候再说。低增长期过去，我们对夕阳行业的定义更多受到西方经济界的影响，等同于纺织钢铁采掘化工机械等传统初级制造业，实际原因是欧美初级制造业在全球化中，由于成本过高失去了竞争力而被转移到亚洲。所谓的“夕阳”，并不是这个行业需求下降或消失，而是企业将制造环节外包为供应链，导致这些产业转移到其他国家。而且，全球化的每一次产业转移，首当其冲的都是这类传统初级制造行业，这才给投资者以夕阳行业的深刻影响。事实上，要说传统、初级，农业更像夕阳行业，但任何一个国家都不会允许这类产业全球化，加上美国又有成本优势，所以就不“夕阳”了，这就是典型的西方视角的定义。所以，这类初级制造行业的投资机会并不“夕阳”，我认为，中国很可能成为传统初级制造业转移的“终点站”，这类“夕阳行业”将在中国成为“日不落行业”，基于以下三个原因：第一、再也无法找到更有比较优势的地区传统初级制造业从欧美到日本再到“亚洲四小龙”，最后到中国，每一次都是因为后者有“比较优势”。比较优势比较的不仅仅是劳动力成本，还包括基础设施、内需市场规模、统一市场、政府治理能力，等等，但放眼全球，几乎没有一个地区可以完全接受中国传统制造业的转移。第二、传统初级制造业竞争格局和管理能力的优化不赚钱的行业，只要竞争格局优化到一定程度，产业出清，寡头出现，也能延缓产业链转移的趋势。这是因为，巨头有利润进行产业链一体化降低成本，有资本对国外企业进行收购，有技术在国外设厂，进行产能全球化布局。巴菲特70年代投资伯克希尔巨亏的案例，给大家以美国纺织业在全球化中失败的印象，但这几年买申洲国际大赚的投资者，享受的恰恰是中国纺织服装加工行业产能转移到越南印度的红利。产能的转移对企业的影响不同，当年欧美纺织服装企业走不出去，而今天的中国纺织服装业，虽然产能转移出去了，但企业还是这些企业，走出去的是企业，带回来的是利润，其原因正是前一条所说的中国企业血液中的“制造业基因”，能够适合不同的文化土壤。第三、新技术对传统初级制造业的改造前几次制造业的转移，不管是在美国生产，还是在日本、韩国生产，除了机器设备更先进，产品有一些升级，其制造方式并没有本质的变化。可制造业转移到中国之后，恰逢互联网大潮进入2B的制造领域，不管是十年前的“鼠标+水泥”，还是五年前的“互联网+”，制造业的生产方式都有了本质的变化。以国联股份为例，解决的是中小企业低成本采购问题，聚合众多下游企业，利用“集采”的模式向上游供应商砍价，使中小企业也能获得大企业的采购成本优势。这个模式要求互联网平台已经积累了大量专业客户，并能够提供高度垂直、高度细分的产品，同时能提供低成本的物流仓储服务，这就要求数字化、云化服务的技术积淀，有一定的壁垒。从物流到采购再到生产，工业互联网对传统制造业的改造，很可能让这些传统行业不再过度依赖低成本和支付环境代价，永远地留在中国，或者把利润留在中国。如果只看行业增速，白酒就是标准的“夕阳行业”。对于这一类不增长的行业而言，胜在竞争格局导致的龙头确定性强，好在融资需求下降，利润增速高于营收增速，股东回报大于规模增长，反而是普通投资者容易把握的机会。前景不明期传统初级制造业一点也不“夕阳”，真正的“夕阳行业”往往是因为新技术、新产品和新商业模式出现，进入需求下降的行业，类似传统相机、普通手表、普通仿制药、上一代电子产品，等等。已经出现需求下降的行业是很好判断的，难的是未来需求不明的行业，比如房地产行业中的新房开发。这里并不是说房地产是夕阳行业，房地产当然是永续经营的行业，但我国目前的新房开发模式，面临未来的需求不明确的问题。我国的人均住房面积世界第五，又面临人口下降，未来二手房占比越来越高，再加上七十年产权的问题，让未来新房开发模式很难预计。投资，千万不要在需求不明确的行业里赌自己的运气。当年长虹低估了液晶电视替代的速度，大量囤积彩管，想通过价格战垄断上游材料扩大份额，结果反而加速了液晶电视的替代，自己陷入财务危机。行业发展如飞行棋下面是金·卡戴珊给儿子的生日礼物——一台三一重工的微型挖掘机，这不是明星搞怪，微型挖掘机是去年美国中产家庭的消费清单上，在大House，大泳池，大草坪之后的新晋网红——家里没有挖掘机，你都不知道出门跟邻居聊啥。挖掘机一度被认为是夕阳行业，认为需求会随着基建工程的减少而萎缩，事实上，不光是美国，在日本，微型挖掘机也因为人口老龄化而变成无所不能的“神器”。本文虽然列了五个阶段，但现实世界里，行业发展就像“飞行棋”，一开始投出“6”才能真正出发，一路上以前进为主，偶尔能“连续飞行”，但也常常遇到“后退几步”，甚至因犯规被“停止一次”，甚至被“打回大本营”的极刑。最大困扰还是来自竞争对手，特别是大家拥挤在同一个阶段时，一不小心就会被干掉。一开局领先，不一定能把领先优势进行到底，但到了后半程，拉开相当的差距后，只要自己不犯致命错误，很可能会将领先优势带到终局。然而，不管你多么领先对手接近终局，只要对手有能力掀翻桌子，重开一局，在一个新的战场上，你所有的优势都将荡然无存，这也是商业竞争的游戏中最残酷、最刺激、不断吸引新玩家入场的一点。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"000001.SH":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2541,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":197223682,"gmtCreate":1621469977146,"gmtModify":1704358030409,"author":{"id":"3581052926190229","authorId":"3581052926190229","name":"李金淼","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/af8a7a940bf810831f3ff666afc8f2dd","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3581052926190229","idStr":"3581052926190229"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"?","listText":"?","text":"?","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/197223682","repostId":"1126565046","repostType":2,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2277,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":100299705,"gmtCreate":1619615240407,"gmtModify":1704726814395,"author":{"id":"3581052926190229","authorId":"3581052926190229","name":"李金淼","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/af8a7a940bf810831f3ff666afc8f2dd","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3581052926190229","idStr":"3581052926190229"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"I am coming now!","listText":"I am coming now!","text":"I am coming now!","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/100299705","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1862,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0}],"hots":[{"id":197223682,"gmtCreate":1621469977146,"gmtModify":1704358030409,"author":{"id":"3581052926190229","authorId":"3581052926190229","name":"李金淼","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/af8a7a940bf810831f3ff666afc8f2dd","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3581052926190229","authorIdStr":"3581052926190229"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"?","listText":"?","text":"?","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/197223682","repostId":"1126565046","repostType":2,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2277,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":182900528,"gmtCreate":1623549381464,"gmtModify":1704205806428,"author":{"id":"3581052926190229","authorId":"3581052926190229","name":"李金淼","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/af8a7a940bf810831f3ff666afc8f2dd","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3581052926190229","authorIdStr":"3581052926190229"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"good","listText":"good","text":"good","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/182900528","repostId":"1134192115","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1134192115","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1623070463,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1134192115?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2021-06-07 20:54","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"5000-word in-depth analysis, how to analyze the future development space of the industry?","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1134192115","media":" 思想钢印","summary":"为什么同样是食品饮料行业、或同样是医药行业，在同样增速的情况下，有些公司60倍PE起步，有些只有20倍呢？这些问题的答案都与行业发展阶段有关，处于不同阶段的企业，未来的变化、发展空间和终局都可能不同。我在《5000字深度：如何在30分钟内，快速判断一家公司的投资价值？》一文中说：行业空间重点看三个因素，行业所处发展阶段、周期性和永续性，其中最重要的就是“行业所处发展阶段”，我习惯将其分成五个阶段：","content":"<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f59fb09a173927167f5a919497dce449\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"606\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><b>The development stage of the industry</b></p><p>Why do some companies start with 60 times PE, while others only have 20 times PE under the same growth rate in the same food and beverage industry or pharmaceutical industry?</p><p>Why can some Internet companies give 20 times PS when they lose money, but only 5 times after making a profit?</p><p>Why didn't Buffett buy Apple earlier? Why does Hillhouse, which invests in the primary market, invest in the secondary market?</p><p>The answers to these questions are all related to the development stage of the industry. Enterprises at different stages may have different future changes, development space and endgame. For example, you are stronger than a child, but a child can grow, but you can't, so the child's valuation should be higher than yours.</p><p>I wrote in \"5000 words in depth: How to quickly judge the investment value of a company in 30 minutes?\" The article said: The industry space focuses on three factors, the development stage of the industry, cyclicality and sustainability, the most important of which is \"the development stage of the industry\", which I am used to dividing into five stages:</p><p><ul><li>The early days when the space seemed huge but very uncertain, such as hydrogen energy vehicles, third-generation semiconductors, OLED, and quantum computers</p><p></li><li>A period of rapid development after industry consumption explosion, business model formation or technological breakthroughs, such as lithium batteries, photovoltaics, artificial intelligence applications, some pharmaceutical industries, and some new consumer industries</p><p></li><li>Stable growth period: Most industries are at this stage</p><p></li><li>Stagnant development period: Most so-called \"sunset industries\" are at this stage</p><p></li><li>Uncertain prospects: industries that may be replaced or become niche in the future, such as traditional new residential development, traditional supermarkets and department stores, and paper media</p><p></li></ul>This paper takes the industry of domestic listed companies as an example to analyze the investment characteristics of these five stages.</p><p><b>A seemingly large but very uncertain early days of space</b></p><p>In theory, this kind of company should be in the stage of VC and PE investment, which is not considered in the secondary market, but there are two exceptions-the new business model cultivated in the listed company, or the sudden appearance of a new application direction in the products of the listed company.</p><p>Take the community group buying business developed by Meituan and Pinduoduo as an example. It was in this \"uncertain\" stage before 2020. The reason why it attracted the attention of investors is that its industry space and business model are very attractive:</p><p>1. Industry space: Focusing on low-priced daily necessities, high frequency and high stickiness, facing the most basic needs of the widest range of people, focusing on sinking markets, avoiding competition between e-commerce and traditional business giants (referring to two years ago), the combination of \"online + offline\" scenarios has many characteristics of large space just needs sustainability.</p><p>2. Business model: The \"pre-sale + self-pickup\" model avoids all the high-cost parts of the current retail system, does not use \"last mile distribution\", has no inventory, a simple central warehouse, and integrates into the social system of consumers with the special role of \"group leader\".<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f2bbf64037287d4907ae8d0015a639b4\" tg-width=\"800\" tg-height=\"359\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">Just need high frequency, avoid giants, integrate into social relationships... These are the characteristics of early industries with explosive potential.</p><p>Although the current community group buying already has a relatively mature operating model and profit potential, when community group buying just emerged before 2020, the business more reflected the uncertainty of early projects: the uncertainty of social chains, online and offline The fragility of the combination, the difficulty of operation and management, the degree of economies of scale... If it weren't for the epidemic at the beginning of last year, the uncertainty period of community group buying might have been longer.</p><p>When industries or products at similar stages appear in the secondary market, they often have the characteristics of thematic investment and concept speculation, such as two recent themes:</p><p>Script killing: Situational socialization under the cloak of games weakens competitiveness and may become a new form of entertainment product with a longer life cycle.</p><p>Metaverse: An immersive virtual space in which users can carry out rich activities such as culture, social interaction, and entertainment, integrating technologies or business models such as blockchain, games, network computing power, and VR.</p><p>The investment essence of such companies belongs to the VC field, and it is difficult for one out of ten companies to succeed. For ordinary investors, intervention should be avoided.</p><p>In the massage chair industry in 2017, Rongtai Health chose to increase investment in the \"shared massage chair\" business at that time. With this concept, the revenue growth and valuation were higher than those of the larger Aojiahua, but one year later, The \"sharing economy\" ebbed. Although shared massage chairs became one of the few products that could generate positive cash flow, because the industry barriers were too low and the profit margins were all taken away by shopping malls, the company had to consider divesting this business.</p><p><b>Industry outbreak period</b></p><p>At this stage, due to the verification of demand, technology or business model, the running of products and the availability of funds, the entire market is in an explosive period, and players from all walks of life have entered.</p><p>For example, in industries that have recently entered an explosive period: community group buying is a verified business model, medical beauty and new energy vehicles are an explosion in downstream demand, lithium batteries and photovoltaics have both technological breakthroughs, and the cost reduction is economic.</p><p>The outbreak of manufacturing industry has a certain degree of imbalance, which is often very sudden. Generally, individual investors are not easy to grasp. A better direction is to choose new consumption that has a less violent outbreak period but lasts for a long time, such as frozen baked goods.</p><p>Bakery chain stores are not a good business model. I explained the reason in the article \"A bad business model is an\" accident-prone area \"in investment.\" Bread takes a long time to make, uses many materials, and there are many tricks. It is difficult for the headquarters to control the quality of franchisees' accessories. \"<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c163f94533343da45c172b0937adaf77\" tg-width=\"771\" tg-height=\"623\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>If the downstream is weak and scattered, there is hope that a strong upstream 2B manufacturing enterprise will emerge. Frozen bakery manufacturers represented by Ligao Foods have begun to provide frozen finished products and semi-finished products to downstream bakeries in recent years, especially the latter. After simple proofing and baking, the store can become baked goods with exactly the same taste as freshly made bread, with faster time, more controllable quality, more uniform taste and lower cost.</p><p>In industries that are in the explosive period, the biggest problem in investment is that valuations are out of control, such as medical beauty.</p><p>It is difficult for industries with explosive growth to estimate the height of their ceilings and the duration of high growth, but the certainty is no less than that of mature industries, resulting in great elasticity in valuation, and stock prices are often determined by the most optimistic investors.</p><p>Once the valuation of industry leaders is out of control, the profit-making effect can easily trigger thematic investment and trend speculative funds, and companies with average fundamentals in the sector will take turns to speculate. Investors must distinguish between leading varieties that have performance but are overvalued and varieties that follow the trend of speculation.</p><p>It should be noted that the boundaries between the various stages of the industry are not absolute, and the industry that has entered the outbreak period has not landed here.</p><p>Community group buying has shown strong commercialization capabilities last year, and its commercial space looks much larger than that of traditional fresh food e-commerce. However, the sudden change in policy at the end of the year may bring community group buying back to the first stage, or its scale may be limited from now on. In a subdivided field-of course, it may just make the industry more standardized, in short, it increases uncertainty.</p><p><b>Period of steady growth</b></p><p>Although the first two stages are the cradle of \"ten-fold stocks\", ordinary investors may not be able to grasp them. The industries of most A-share companies are in the \"stable growth period\" stage, and Buffett's moat theory basically belongs to companies at this stage.</p><p>In the short term, the company's performance at this stage is not as explosive as the previous two stages, but in the long run, the income from investing at this stage is not low. A shares are currently more similar to the golden age of Buffett's investment.</p><p>The reason is that China has a huge population, complex urban levels and unified culture, and consumer culture has conductivity from high-level to low-level. Many products have been popular in first-tier cities for several years, second-and third-tier cities for several years, and then spread to fourth-tier cities, and the growth period is longer than other markets. The migration of population from low-tier cities to high-tier cities, rural areas to cities, and the global competitiveness of Chinese manufacturing have made this process more complicated and long, resulting in most mature industries experiencing at least ten years of growth period.</p><p>Therefore, venture capital such as Hillhouse Capital, which was originally engaged in the primary market, has also devoted its main energy to the secondary market in recent years, and quite a few of them are companies in the mature stage.</p><p>Take major household appliances as an example. This is the earliest industry with global competitiveness in China. Twenty-five years ago, the growth stocks were Changhong and Konka, 15 years ago it was Gree, and five years ago it was Midea and Boss. Now it's Haier's turn again. A mid-to-high-end company with overseas expansion ability.</p><p>This has led many investors to regard the home appliance industry as a mature industry, and there is still a lot of room for penetration rate. Air-conditioning leaders with good competitive landscape may still have a growth of more than 7% in ten years.</p><p>From the perspective of categories, from black electricity that was the first to achieve breakthroughs, to white electricity that established advantages next, to kitchen appliances that rose with real estate, from these economies of scale, to small home appliances that rely on industrial chain efficiency and functional innovation, There are also smart home appliances that have joined the wave of intelligence.</p><p>The coexistence of category extension and regional differences has created the depth and breadth of the market. Leading companies that have a foothold in mature categories are more likely to get out of the second growth curve-the boss develops dishwashers, Haier cultivates high-end brands, Midea deploys small household appliances, and TCL enters the upstream panel industry.</p><p>The growth of mature industries depends on category expansion, so for enterprises entering this stage, investors need to shift the company's observation perspective from the level of industry space and product competitiveness to the level of entrepreneurship, management and organizational culture. Only enterprises that solve the management radius can have the ability to continue to expand. Of course, this is not an industry-level issue, leave it until the analysis of management capabilities.</p><p><b>Low growth period</b></p><p>In the past, our definition of sunset industry was more influenced by western economic circles, which was equivalent to traditional primary manufacturing industries such as textile, steel, mining and chemical machinery. The actual reason was that the primary manufacturing industries in Europe and America lost their competitiveness due to high costs and were transferred to Asia in globalization. The so-called \"sunset\" is not that the demand of this industry declines or disappears, but that enterprises outsource manufacturing links into supply chains, causing these industries to move to other countries.</p><p>Moreover, every industrial transfer of globalization bears the brunt of this kind of traditional primary manufacturing industry, which gives investors a profound influence on the sunset industry.</p><p>In fact, to talk about traditional and primary agriculture, agriculture is more like a sunset industry, but no country will allow such industries to globalize. In addition, the United States has a cost advantage, so there is no \"sunset\". This is the definition of a typical western perspective.</p><p>Therefore, the investment opportunities in this kind of primary manufacturing industry are not \"sunset\". I think China is likely to become the \"terminal\" for the transfer of traditional primary manufacturing industry, and this kind of \"sunset industry\" will become a \"sunset industry\" in China, based on the following three reasons:</p><p>First, we can no longer find regions with more comparative advantages</p><p>The traditional primary manufacturing industry has gone from Europe and America to Japan, then to the \"Asian Four Little Dragons\" and finally to China, every time because the latter has a \"comparative advantage\". Comparative advantages compare not only labor costs, but also infrastructure, domestic demand market size, unified market, government governance capacity, etc. However, looking around the world, almost no region can fully accept the transfer of China's traditional manufacturing industry.</p><p>Second, the optimization of competition pattern and management ability of traditional primary manufacturing industry</p><p>For unprofitable industries, as long as the competitive landscape is optimized to a certain extent, the industry is cleared, and oligarchs emerge, the trend of industrial chain transfer can also be delayed. This is because giants have profits to integrate industrial chains to reduce costs, capital to acquire foreign companies, technology to set up factories abroad, and global production capacity layout.</p><p>Buffett's case of investing in Berkshire's huge losses in the 1970s gave everyone the impression that the American textile industry failed in globalization. However, investors who made a lot of money by buying Shenzhou International in recent years enjoyed precisely the dividends of China's textile and garment processing industry production capacity transferred to Vietnam and India.</p><p>The transfer of production capacity has different effects on enterprises. In those days, European and American textile and garment enterprises couldn't go out, but today's Chinese textile and garment industry, although the production capacity has been transferred out, enterprises are still these enterprises. What goes out is enterprises, and what brings back is profits. The reason is precisely the \"manufacturing genes\" in the blood of Chinese enterprises mentioned in the previous article, which can be suitable for different cultural soils.</p><p>Third, the transformation of traditional primary manufacturing industry by new technology</p><p>In the previous manufacturing transfers, whether they were produced in the United States, Japan or South Korea, there was no essential change in their manufacturing methods except for more advanced machinery and equipment and some upgrades in products.</p><p>But after the manufacturing industry moved to China, it coincided with the Internet tide entering the 2B manufacturing field. Whether it was \"mouse + cement\" ten years ago or \"Internet plus\" five years ago, the production mode of manufacturing industry has changed essentially.</p><p>Taking Guolian Co., Ltd. as an example, it solves the problem of low-cost procurement for small and medium-sized enterprises, gathers many downstream enterprises, and uses the \"centralized procurement\" model to bargain with upstream suppliers, so that small and medium-sized enterprises can also obtain the procurement cost advantages of large enterprises.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a54db6ef986216d7d0ffb068c2eba690\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"513\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>This model requires that the Internet platform has accumulated a large number of professional customers, and can provide highly vertical and highly segmented products, and at the same time provide low-cost logistics and warehousing services. This requires the technical accumulation of digital and cloud services, and there are certain barriers.</p><p>From logistics to procurement to production, the transformation of traditional manufacturing industries by the industrial Internet is likely to make these traditional industries no longer rely too much on low costs and paying environmental costs, and stay in China forever, or keep profits in China.</p><p>If we only look at the growth rate of the industry, liquor is the standard \"sunset industry\". For this type of industry that does not grow, the advantage lies in the strong certainty of the leader caused by the competitive landscape. Fortunately, the financing demand has declined, the profit growth rate is higher than the revenue growth rate, and the shareholder return is greater than the scale growth. On the contrary, it is an easy opportunity for ordinary investors to grasp.</p><p><b>Uncertain prospects</b></p><p>The traditional primary manufacturing industry is not \"sunset\" at all. The real \"sunset industry\" is often due to the emergence of new technologies, new products and new business models, entering industries with declining demand, similar to traditional cameras, ordinary watches, ordinary generic drugs, previous generation electronic products, and so on.</p><p>It is easy to judge the industries that have experienced declining demand, but the difficulty is the industries with unclear future demand, such as the development of new houses in the real estate industry.</p><p>This is not to say that real estate is a sunset industry. Of course, real estate is a sustainable industry. However, my country's current new house development model is facing the problem of unclear future demand. My country's per capita housing area ranks fifth in the world, and it is facing a population decline. In the future, the proportion of second-hand houses will be higher and higher. Coupled with the 70-year property rights problem, it is difficult to predict the future development model of new houses.</p><p>When investing, don't bet on your luck in an industry with unclear demand. At that time, Changhong underestimated the speed of LCD TV replacement, hoarded a large number of color tubes, and wanted to monopolize upstream materials through price wars to expand its share. As a result, it accelerated the replacement of LCD TVs and fell into a financial crisis.</p><p><b>Industry development is like flying chess</b></p><p>The following is Kim Kardashian's birthday present to his son-a mini-excavator from Sany Heavy Industry. This is not a celebrity funny. The mini-excavator was on the consumption list of middle-class families in the United States last year. It was a new online celebrity after the big House, the big swimming pool and the big lawn-without an excavator at home, you don't know what to talk to your neighbors when you go out.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/acf6163cc8f6105ee5b459116d6225a1\" tg-width=\"358\" tg-height=\"428\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>Excavators were once considered a sunset industry, believing that demand would shrink with the reduction of infrastructure projects. In fact, not only in the United States, but also in Japan, micro excavators have become omnipotent \"artifacts\" due to the aging population.</p><p>Although this article lists five stages, in the real world, the development of the industry is like \"flying chess\". Only by throwing a \"6\" at the beginning can you really start. Along the way, you mainly focus on advancing. Occasionally, you can \"fly continuously\", but you often encounter the capital punishment of \"taking a few steps back\", even being \"stopped once\" for a foul, or even being \"beaten back to the base camp\".</p><p>The biggest trouble still comes from competitors, especially when everyone is crowded at the same stage, they will be killed if they are not careful. When you take the lead at the beginning, you may not be able to carry the lead to the end, but in the second half, after opening a considerable gap, as long as you don't make fatal mistakes, you will probably bring the lead to the end.</p><p>However, no matter how close you are to the endgame ahead of your opponent, as long as your opponent has the ability to overturn the table and reopen a game, all your advantages will be gone on a new battlefield, which is also the cruelest, most exciting and constantly attracting new players in the game of commercial competition.</p>","source":"sxgy","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>5000-word in-depth analysis, how to analyze the future development space of the industry?</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n5000-word in-depth analysis, how to analyze the future development space of the industry?\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\"> 思想钢印</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-06-07 20:54</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f59fb09a173927167f5a919497dce449\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"606\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><b>The development stage of the industry</b></p><p>Why do some companies start with 60 times PE, while others only have 20 times PE under the same growth rate in the same food and beverage industry or pharmaceutical industry?</p><p>Why can some Internet companies give 20 times PS when they lose money, but only 5 times after making a profit?</p><p>Why didn't Buffett buy Apple earlier? Why does Hillhouse, which invests in the primary market, invest in the secondary market?</p><p>The answers to these questions are all related to the development stage of the industry. Enterprises at different stages may have different future changes, development space and endgame. For example, you are stronger than a child, but a child can grow, but you can't, so the child's valuation should be higher than yours.</p><p>I wrote in \"5000 words in depth: How to quickly judge the investment value of a company in 30 minutes?\" The article said: The industry space focuses on three factors, the development stage of the industry, cyclicality and sustainability, the most important of which is \"the development stage of the industry\", which I am used to dividing into five stages:</p><p><ul><li>The early days when the space seemed huge but very uncertain, such as hydrogen energy vehicles, third-generation semiconductors, OLED, and quantum computers</p><p></li><li>A period of rapid development after industry consumption explosion, business model formation or technological breakthroughs, such as lithium batteries, photovoltaics, artificial intelligence applications, some pharmaceutical industries, and some new consumer industries</p><p></li><li>Stable growth period: Most industries are at this stage</p><p></li><li>Stagnant development period: Most so-called \"sunset industries\" are at this stage</p><p></li><li>Uncertain prospects: industries that may be replaced or become niche in the future, such as traditional new residential development, traditional supermarkets and department stores, and paper media</p><p></li></ul>This paper takes the industry of domestic listed companies as an example to analyze the investment characteristics of these five stages.</p><p><b>A seemingly large but very uncertain early days of space</b></p><p>In theory, this kind of company should be in the stage of VC and PE investment, which is not considered in the secondary market, but there are two exceptions-the new business model cultivated in the listed company, or the sudden appearance of a new application direction in the products of the listed company.</p><p>Take the community group buying business developed by Meituan and Pinduoduo as an example. It was in this \"uncertain\" stage before 2020. The reason why it attracted the attention of investors is that its industry space and business model are very attractive:</p><p>1. Industry space: Focusing on low-priced daily necessities, high frequency and high stickiness, facing the most basic needs of the widest range of people, focusing on sinking markets, avoiding competition between e-commerce and traditional business giants (referring to two years ago), the combination of \"online + offline\" scenarios has many characteristics of large space just needs sustainability.</p><p>2. Business model: The \"pre-sale + self-pickup\" model avoids all the high-cost parts of the current retail system, does not use \"last mile distribution\", has no inventory, a simple central warehouse, and integrates into the social system of consumers with the special role of \"group leader\".<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f2bbf64037287d4907ae8d0015a639b4\" tg-width=\"800\" tg-height=\"359\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">Just need high frequency, avoid giants, integrate into social relationships... These are the characteristics of early industries with explosive potential.</p><p>Although the current community group buying already has a relatively mature operating model and profit potential, when community group buying just emerged before 2020, the business more reflected the uncertainty of early projects: the uncertainty of social chains, online and offline The fragility of the combination, the difficulty of operation and management, the degree of economies of scale... If it weren't for the epidemic at the beginning of last year, the uncertainty period of community group buying might have been longer.</p><p>When industries or products at similar stages appear in the secondary market, they often have the characteristics of thematic investment and concept speculation, such as two recent themes:</p><p>Script killing: Situational socialization under the cloak of games weakens competitiveness and may become a new form of entertainment product with a longer life cycle.</p><p>Metaverse: An immersive virtual space in which users can carry out rich activities such as culture, social interaction, and entertainment, integrating technologies or business models such as blockchain, games, network computing power, and VR.</p><p>The investment essence of such companies belongs to the VC field, and it is difficult for one out of ten companies to succeed. For ordinary investors, intervention should be avoided.</p><p>In the massage chair industry in 2017, Rongtai Health chose to increase investment in the \"shared massage chair\" business at that time. With this concept, the revenue growth and valuation were higher than those of the larger Aojiahua, but one year later, The \"sharing economy\" ebbed. Although shared massage chairs became one of the few products that could generate positive cash flow, because the industry barriers were too low and the profit margins were all taken away by shopping malls, the company had to consider divesting this business.</p><p><b>Industry outbreak period</b></p><p>At this stage, due to the verification of demand, technology or business model, the running of products and the availability of funds, the entire market is in an explosive period, and players from all walks of life have entered.</p><p>For example, in industries that have recently entered an explosive period: community group buying is a verified business model, medical beauty and new energy vehicles are an explosion in downstream demand, lithium batteries and photovoltaics have both technological breakthroughs, and the cost reduction is economic.</p><p>The outbreak of manufacturing industry has a certain degree of imbalance, which is often very sudden. Generally, individual investors are not easy to grasp. A better direction is to choose new consumption that has a less violent outbreak period but lasts for a long time, such as frozen baked goods.</p><p>Bakery chain stores are not a good business model. I explained the reason in the article \"A bad business model is an\" accident-prone area \"in investment.\" Bread takes a long time to make, uses many materials, and there are many tricks. It is difficult for the headquarters to control the quality of franchisees' accessories. \"<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c163f94533343da45c172b0937adaf77\" tg-width=\"771\" tg-height=\"623\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>If the downstream is weak and scattered, there is hope that a strong upstream 2B manufacturing enterprise will emerge. Frozen bakery manufacturers represented by Ligao Foods have begun to provide frozen finished products and semi-finished products to downstream bakeries in recent years, especially the latter. After simple proofing and baking, the store can become baked goods with exactly the same taste as freshly made bread, with faster time, more controllable quality, more uniform taste and lower cost.</p><p>In industries that are in the explosive period, the biggest problem in investment is that valuations are out of control, such as medical beauty.</p><p>It is difficult for industries with explosive growth to estimate the height of their ceilings and the duration of high growth, but the certainty is no less than that of mature industries, resulting in great elasticity in valuation, and stock prices are often determined by the most optimistic investors.</p><p>Once the valuation of industry leaders is out of control, the profit-making effect can easily trigger thematic investment and trend speculative funds, and companies with average fundamentals in the sector will take turns to speculate. Investors must distinguish between leading varieties that have performance but are overvalued and varieties that follow the trend of speculation.</p><p>It should be noted that the boundaries between the various stages of the industry are not absolute, and the industry that has entered the outbreak period has not landed here.</p><p>Community group buying has shown strong commercialization capabilities last year, and its commercial space looks much larger than that of traditional fresh food e-commerce. However, the sudden change in policy at the end of the year may bring community group buying back to the first stage, or its scale may be limited from now on. In a subdivided field-of course, it may just make the industry more standardized, in short, it increases uncertainty.</p><p><b>Period of steady growth</b></p><p>Although the first two stages are the cradle of \"ten-fold stocks\", ordinary investors may not be able to grasp them. The industries of most A-share companies are in the \"stable growth period\" stage, and Buffett's moat theory basically belongs to companies at this stage.</p><p>In the short term, the company's performance at this stage is not as explosive as the previous two stages, but in the long run, the income from investing at this stage is not low. A shares are currently more similar to the golden age of Buffett's investment.</p><p>The reason is that China has a huge population, complex urban levels and unified culture, and consumer culture has conductivity from high-level to low-level. Many products have been popular in first-tier cities for several years, second-and third-tier cities for several years, and then spread to fourth-tier cities, and the growth period is longer than other markets. The migration of population from low-tier cities to high-tier cities, rural areas to cities, and the global competitiveness of Chinese manufacturing have made this process more complicated and long, resulting in most mature industries experiencing at least ten years of growth period.</p><p>Therefore, venture capital such as Hillhouse Capital, which was originally engaged in the primary market, has also devoted its main energy to the secondary market in recent years, and quite a few of them are companies in the mature stage.</p><p>Take major household appliances as an example. This is the earliest industry with global competitiveness in China. Twenty-five years ago, the growth stocks were Changhong and Konka, 15 years ago it was Gree, and five years ago it was Midea and Boss. Now it's Haier's turn again. A mid-to-high-end company with overseas expansion ability.</p><p>This has led many investors to regard the home appliance industry as a mature industry, and there is still a lot of room for penetration rate. Air-conditioning leaders with good competitive landscape may still have a growth of more than 7% in ten years.</p><p>From the perspective of categories, from black electricity that was the first to achieve breakthroughs, to white electricity that established advantages next, to kitchen appliances that rose with real estate, from these economies of scale, to small home appliances that rely on industrial chain efficiency and functional innovation, There are also smart home appliances that have joined the wave of intelligence.</p><p>The coexistence of category extension and regional differences has created the depth and breadth of the market. Leading companies that have a foothold in mature categories are more likely to get out of the second growth curve-the boss develops dishwashers, Haier cultivates high-end brands, Midea deploys small household appliances, and TCL enters the upstream panel industry.</p><p>The growth of mature industries depends on category expansion, so for enterprises entering this stage, investors need to shift the company's observation perspective from the level of industry space and product competitiveness to the level of entrepreneurship, management and organizational culture. Only enterprises that solve the management radius can have the ability to continue to expand. Of course, this is not an industry-level issue, leave it until the analysis of management capabilities.</p><p><b>Low growth period</b></p><p>In the past, our definition of sunset industry was more influenced by western economic circles, which was equivalent to traditional primary manufacturing industries such as textile, steel, mining and chemical machinery. The actual reason was that the primary manufacturing industries in Europe and America lost their competitiveness due to high costs and were transferred to Asia in globalization. The so-called \"sunset\" is not that the demand of this industry declines or disappears, but that enterprises outsource manufacturing links into supply chains, causing these industries to move to other countries.</p><p>Moreover, every industrial transfer of globalization bears the brunt of this kind of traditional primary manufacturing industry, which gives investors a profound influence on the sunset industry.</p><p>In fact, to talk about traditional and primary agriculture, agriculture is more like a sunset industry, but no country will allow such industries to globalize. In addition, the United States has a cost advantage, so there is no \"sunset\". This is the definition of a typical western perspective.</p><p>Therefore, the investment opportunities in this kind of primary manufacturing industry are not \"sunset\". I think China is likely to become the \"terminal\" for the transfer of traditional primary manufacturing industry, and this kind of \"sunset industry\" will become a \"sunset industry\" in China, based on the following three reasons:</p><p>First, we can no longer find regions with more comparative advantages</p><p>The traditional primary manufacturing industry has gone from Europe and America to Japan, then to the \"Asian Four Little Dragons\" and finally to China, every time because the latter has a \"comparative advantage\". Comparative advantages compare not only labor costs, but also infrastructure, domestic demand market size, unified market, government governance capacity, etc. However, looking around the world, almost no region can fully accept the transfer of China's traditional manufacturing industry.</p><p>Second, the optimization of competition pattern and management ability of traditional primary manufacturing industry</p><p>For unprofitable industries, as long as the competitive landscape is optimized to a certain extent, the industry is cleared, and oligarchs emerge, the trend of industrial chain transfer can also be delayed. This is because giants have profits to integrate industrial chains to reduce costs, capital to acquire foreign companies, technology to set up factories abroad, and global production capacity layout.</p><p>Buffett's case of investing in Berkshire's huge losses in the 1970s gave everyone the impression that the American textile industry failed in globalization. However, investors who made a lot of money by buying Shenzhou International in recent years enjoyed precisely the dividends of China's textile and garment processing industry production capacity transferred to Vietnam and India.</p><p>The transfer of production capacity has different effects on enterprises. In those days, European and American textile and garment enterprises couldn't go out, but today's Chinese textile and garment industry, although the production capacity has been transferred out, enterprises are still these enterprises. What goes out is enterprises, and what brings back is profits. The reason is precisely the \"manufacturing genes\" in the blood of Chinese enterprises mentioned in the previous article, which can be suitable for different cultural soils.</p><p>Third, the transformation of traditional primary manufacturing industry by new technology</p><p>In the previous manufacturing transfers, whether they were produced in the United States, Japan or South Korea, there was no essential change in their manufacturing methods except for more advanced machinery and equipment and some upgrades in products.</p><p>But after the manufacturing industry moved to China, it coincided with the Internet tide entering the 2B manufacturing field. Whether it was \"mouse + cement\" ten years ago or \"Internet plus\" five years ago, the production mode of manufacturing industry has changed essentially.</p><p>Taking Guolian Co., Ltd. as an example, it solves the problem of low-cost procurement for small and medium-sized enterprises, gathers many downstream enterprises, and uses the \"centralized procurement\" model to bargain with upstream suppliers, so that small and medium-sized enterprises can also obtain the procurement cost advantages of large enterprises.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a54db6ef986216d7d0ffb068c2eba690\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"513\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>This model requires that the Internet platform has accumulated a large number of professional customers, and can provide highly vertical and highly segmented products, and at the same time provide low-cost logistics and warehousing services. This requires the technical accumulation of digital and cloud services, and there are certain barriers.</p><p>From logistics to procurement to production, the transformation of traditional manufacturing industries by the industrial Internet is likely to make these traditional industries no longer rely too much on low costs and paying environmental costs, and stay in China forever, or keep profits in China.</p><p>If we only look at the growth rate of the industry, liquor is the standard \"sunset industry\". For this type of industry that does not grow, the advantage lies in the strong certainty of the leader caused by the competitive landscape. Fortunately, the financing demand has declined, the profit growth rate is higher than the revenue growth rate, and the shareholder return is greater than the scale growth. On the contrary, it is an easy opportunity for ordinary investors to grasp.</p><p><b>Uncertain prospects</b></p><p>The traditional primary manufacturing industry is not \"sunset\" at all. The real \"sunset industry\" is often due to the emergence of new technologies, new products and new business models, entering industries with declining demand, similar to traditional cameras, ordinary watches, ordinary generic drugs, previous generation electronic products, and so on.</p><p>It is easy to judge the industries that have experienced declining demand, but the difficulty is the industries with unclear future demand, such as the development of new houses in the real estate industry.</p><p>This is not to say that real estate is a sunset industry. Of course, real estate is a sustainable industry. However, my country's current new house development model is facing the problem of unclear future demand. My country's per capita housing area ranks fifth in the world, and it is facing a population decline. In the future, the proportion of second-hand houses will be higher and higher. Coupled with the 70-year property rights problem, it is difficult to predict the future development model of new houses.</p><p>When investing, don't bet on your luck in an industry with unclear demand. At that time, Changhong underestimated the speed of LCD TV replacement, hoarded a large number of color tubes, and wanted to monopolize upstream materials through price wars to expand its share. As a result, it accelerated the replacement of LCD TVs and fell into a financial crisis.</p><p><b>Industry development is like flying chess</b></p><p>The following is Kim Kardashian's birthday present to his son-a mini-excavator from Sany Heavy Industry. This is not a celebrity funny. The mini-excavator was on the consumption list of middle-class families in the United States last year. It was a new online celebrity after the big House, the big swimming pool and the big lawn-without an excavator at home, you don't know what to talk to your neighbors when you go out.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/acf6163cc8f6105ee5b459116d6225a1\" tg-width=\"358\" tg-height=\"428\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>Excavators were once considered a sunset industry, believing that demand would shrink with the reduction of infrastructure projects. In fact, not only in the United States, but also in Japan, micro excavators have become omnipotent \"artifacts\" due to the aging population.</p><p>Although this article lists five stages, in the real world, the development of the industry is like \"flying chess\". Only by throwing a \"6\" at the beginning can you really start. Along the way, you mainly focus on advancing. Occasionally, you can \"fly continuously\", but you often encounter the capital punishment of \"taking a few steps back\", even being \"stopped once\" for a foul, or even being \"beaten back to the base camp\".</p><p>The biggest trouble still comes from competitors, especially when everyone is crowded at the same stage, they will be killed if they are not careful. When you take the lead at the beginning, you may not be able to carry the lead to the end, but in the second half, after opening a considerable gap, as long as you don't make fatal mistakes, you will probably bring the lead to the end.</p><p>However, no matter how close you are to the endgame ahead of your opponent, as long as your opponent has the ability to overturn the table and reopen a game, all your advantages will be gone on a new battlefield, which is also the cruelest, most exciting and constantly attracting new players in the game of commercial competition.</p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> source：<a href=\"https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s/vjFcnbuu3MUCEkb115384Q\"> 思想钢印</a></p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f59fb09a173927167f5a919497dce449","relate_stocks":{"000001.SH":"上证指数"},"source_url":"https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s/vjFcnbuu3MUCEkb115384Q","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1134192115","content_text":"行业所处发展阶段为什么同样是食品饮料行业、或同样是医药行业，在同样增速的情况下，有些公司60倍PE起步，有些只有20倍呢？为什么有些互联网公司亏损时，可以给20倍PS，盈利后，却只能给5倍？为什么巴菲特不早点买苹果？为什么投一级市场的高瓴要来投二级市场？这些问题的答案都与行业发展阶段有关，处于不同阶段的企业，未来的变化、发展空间和终局都可能不同。打个比方，你比小孩子力气大，但是小孩子能长个儿，你却不能，所以小孩子的估值就应该比你高。我在《5000字深度：如何在30分钟内，快速判断一家公司的投资价值？》一文中说：行业空间重点看三个因素，行业所处发展阶段、周期性和永续性，其中最重要的就是“行业所处发展阶段”，我习惯将其分成五个阶段：空间看似很大但非常不确定的早期，比如氢能源车、第三代半导体、OLED、量子计算机行业消费爆发、商业模式成型或者技术突破后的高速发展期，比如锂电、光伏、人工智能应用、部分医药行业、部分新消费行业稳定增长期：大部分行业都处于这个阶段发展停滞期：大部分所谓“夕阳行业”都处于这个阶段前景不明期：未来有可能被替代或大众变小众的行业，比如传统的新住宅开发、传统的超市百货、纸媒本文就以国内上市公司的行业为例，分析一下这五个阶段的投资特点。空间看似很大但非常不确定的早期这一类公司理论上应该是VC、PE投资的阶段，不在二级市场考虑范围内，但有两种情况例外——上市公司体内培育的新商业模式，或者上市公司的产品忽然出现了某个新应用方向。以美团和拼多多发力的社区团购业务为例，2020年之前就处于这一“不确定”的阶段，之所以引起投资者的注意，因为其行业空间和商业模式都非常有吸引力：1、行业空间：主打低价生活必需品，高频高粘性，面对的是最广泛人群的最基本的需求，主打下沉市场，避开电商和传统商业巨头的竞争（指的是两年前），“线上+线下”场景结合，具有大空间刚需永续性的多个特点。2、商业模式：“预售+自提”的模式避开所有现行零售体系高成本的部分，不用“最后一公里配送”，无库存、简单的中心仓，并以“团长”这个特殊的角色融入消费者的社交体系。刚需高频、避开巨头、融入社交关系……，这些都是有爆发潜力的早期行业的特点。虽然现在的社区团购已经具备比较成熟的运营模式和盈利潜力，但在2020年前社区团购刚刚兴起时，业务更多体现出早期项目的不确定性：社交链的不确定性、线上线下结合的脆弱性、运营管理的难度、规模经济的程度……，如果不是去年年初的疫情，社区团购的不确定期可能还要更长。二级市场出现类似阶段的行业或产品时，常常有主题投资和概念炒作的特点，比如近期两个题材：剧本杀：在游戏外衣下的情境社交，弱化竞技性，有可能成为有较长生命周期的新形态的娱乐产品。元宇宙：沉浸式的虚拟空间，用户可在其中进行文化、社交、娱乐等丰富的活动，将区块链、游戏、网络算力、VR等技术或商业模式融为一体。这类公司的投资本质是属于VC领域，十个中难以成功一个，对于一般投资者，应该避免介入。2017年的按摩椅行业，荣泰健康当年选择加大投入当时的“共享按摩椅”业务，凭借这一概念，营收增长和估值都高于规模更大的奥佳华，但一年后，“共享经济”退潮，共享按摩椅虽然成为少数能产生正现金流的产品，但因为行业壁垒太低，利润空间全被商场拿走了，公司不得不考虑剥离这一块业务。行业爆发期到了这个阶段，由于需求、技术或商业模式被验证，产品跑通、资金到位，导致整个市场处于爆发期，各路玩家纷纷进入。比如近期进入爆发期的行业中：社区团购是商业模式被验证，医美和新能源车是下游需求爆发，锂电和光伏兼具了技术突破，成本降到具有经济效益。制造业的爆发有一定的不均衡性，往往非常突然，一般个人投资者不太好把握，更好的方向是选择爆发期没那么猛烈但持续时间比较长的新消费，比如冷冻烘焙食品。面包连锁店不是好的商业模式，我在《不好的商业模式，是投资中的“事故多发地段”》一文讲过理由，“面包的制作工艺时间长、用料多，花样又多，总部很难控制加盟商的辅料的品质”。下游弱而散，就有希望出现一个强有力的上游2B的制造业企业，以立高食品为代表的冷冻烘焙厂商，近年来开始向下游的面包房提供冷冻成品和半成品，特别是后者，门店经过简单醒发、烘烤即可成为与现做面包口感完全一致的烘焙食品，时间更快，品质更可控、口感更统一、成本更低。处于爆发期的行业，投资上最大的问题是估值失控，比如医美。爆发式增长的行业很难估计其天花板的高度，以及高增长延续的时间，但确定性却不亚于成熟性行业，导致估值的弹性很大，股价往往由最乐观的投资者决定。一旦行业龙头的估值失控，赚钱效应很容易引发主题投资和趋势投机资金，把板块内基本面一般的公司轮流炒一遍。投资者务必要分清有业绩但高估的龙头品种，和跟风炒作的品种。需要说明的是，行业各阶段之间的界限并不绝对，进入爆发期的行业也并非就此上岸。社区团购去年已经显示了强大的商业化能力，其商业空间看上去远大于传统的生鲜电商，但年底的政策风云突变，有可能把社区团购打回到第一阶段，或者其规模从此限制在一个细分的领域——当然，也可能只是让行业更规范，总之是增加了不确定性。稳定增长期虽然前两个阶段是“十倍股”的摇篮，但一般投资者不一定把握得了。A股的绝大部分公司的行业都处于“稳定增长期”的阶段，巴菲特的护城河理论也基本上属于这个阶段的企业。短期而言，这个阶段的公司业绩爆发性不如前两个阶段，但长期而言，投资此阶段的收益并不低，A股目前更类似于巴菲特投资的黄金时代。原因在于，中国有巨大的人口量、复杂的城市层次和统一的文化，而消费文化具有从高阶到低阶的传导性，很多产品在一线城市火几年，二、三线城市火几年，再传到四线城市，成长期也比其他市场长。而人口从低线城市向高线城市迁移，农村向城市迁移，加上中国制造具备的全球竞争力，又让这个过程更加复杂和漫长，导致大部分成熟行业都要经历至少十年以上的成长期。所以像高瓴资本这样原本做一级市场的风险投资，近几年也把主要精力投身二级市场，且相当一部分都是处于成熟阶段的企业。以大家电为例，这是中国最早具备全球竞争力的行业，25年前的成长股是长虹、康佳，15年前是格力，5年前是美的、老板，现在又重新轮到海尔一类定位中高端，具备海外扩张能力的公司。这就导致很多投资者视之为成熟行业的家电行业，渗透率仍有很大空间，竞争格局好的空调龙头，可能还有十年7%以上的增长。再从品类上看，从最早获得突破的黑电，到其次建立优势的白电，再到随房地产起来的厨电，从这些规模经济领域，发展到依赖产业链效率和功能创新的小家电，还有加入智能化浪潮的智能家电。品类延伸与区域差异并存，造就了市场的深度与广度，在成熟品类站住脚的头部企业更容易走出第二增长曲线——老板发力洗碗机，海尔培养高端品牌，美的布局小家电，TCL进军上游面板行业。成熟行业增长靠品类扩张，所以进入这个阶段的企业，投资者需要把公司的观察视角，从行业空间与产品竞争力的层面，转移到企业家精神与管理和组织文化的层面。只有解决管理半径的企业，才能拥有持续扩张的能力。当然，这就不是行业层面的问题了，留到分析管理能力的时候再说。低增长期过去，我们对夕阳行业的定义更多受到西方经济界的影响，等同于纺织钢铁采掘化工机械等传统初级制造业，实际原因是欧美初级制造业在全球化中，由于成本过高失去了竞争力而被转移到亚洲。所谓的“夕阳”，并不是这个行业需求下降或消失，而是企业将制造环节外包为供应链，导致这些产业转移到其他国家。而且，全球化的每一次产业转移，首当其冲的都是这类传统初级制造行业，这才给投资者以夕阳行业的深刻影响。事实上，要说传统、初级，农业更像夕阳行业，但任何一个国家都不会允许这类产业全球化，加上美国又有成本优势，所以就不“夕阳”了，这就是典型的西方视角的定义。所以，这类初级制造行业的投资机会并不“夕阳”，我认为，中国很可能成为传统初级制造业转移的“终点站”，这类“夕阳行业”将在中国成为“日不落行业”，基于以下三个原因：第一、再也无法找到更有比较优势的地区传统初级制造业从欧美到日本再到“亚洲四小龙”，最后到中国，每一次都是因为后者有“比较优势”。比较优势比较的不仅仅是劳动力成本，还包括基础设施、内需市场规模、统一市场、政府治理能力，等等，但放眼全球，几乎没有一个地区可以完全接受中国传统制造业的转移。第二、传统初级制造业竞争格局和管理能力的优化不赚钱的行业，只要竞争格局优化到一定程度，产业出清，寡头出现，也能延缓产业链转移的趋势。这是因为，巨头有利润进行产业链一体化降低成本，有资本对国外企业进行收购，有技术在国外设厂，进行产能全球化布局。巴菲特70年代投资伯克希尔巨亏的案例，给大家以美国纺织业在全球化中失败的印象，但这几年买申洲国际大赚的投资者，享受的恰恰是中国纺织服装加工行业产能转移到越南印度的红利。产能的转移对企业的影响不同，当年欧美纺织服装企业走不出去，而今天的中国纺织服装业，虽然产能转移出去了，但企业还是这些企业，走出去的是企业，带回来的是利润，其原因正是前一条所说的中国企业血液中的“制造业基因”，能够适合不同的文化土壤。第三、新技术对传统初级制造业的改造前几次制造业的转移，不管是在美国生产，还是在日本、韩国生产，除了机器设备更先进，产品有一些升级，其制造方式并没有本质的变化。可制造业转移到中国之后，恰逢互联网大潮进入2B的制造领域，不管是十年前的“鼠标+水泥”，还是五年前的“互联网+”，制造业的生产方式都有了本质的变化。以国联股份为例，解决的是中小企业低成本采购问题，聚合众多下游企业，利用“集采”的模式向上游供应商砍价，使中小企业也能获得大企业的采购成本优势。这个模式要求互联网平台已经积累了大量专业客户，并能够提供高度垂直、高度细分的产品，同时能提供低成本的物流仓储服务，这就要求数字化、云化服务的技术积淀，有一定的壁垒。从物流到采购再到生产，工业互联网对传统制造业的改造，很可能让这些传统行业不再过度依赖低成本和支付环境代价，永远地留在中国，或者把利润留在中国。如果只看行业增速，白酒就是标准的“夕阳行业”。对于这一类不增长的行业而言，胜在竞争格局导致的龙头确定性强，好在融资需求下降，利润增速高于营收增速，股东回报大于规模增长，反而是普通投资者容易把握的机会。前景不明期传统初级制造业一点也不“夕阳”，真正的“夕阳行业”往往是因为新技术、新产品和新商业模式出现，进入需求下降的行业，类似传统相机、普通手表、普通仿制药、上一代电子产品，等等。已经出现需求下降的行业是很好判断的，难的是未来需求不明的行业，比如房地产行业中的新房开发。这里并不是说房地产是夕阳行业，房地产当然是永续经营的行业，但我国目前的新房开发模式，面临未来的需求不明确的问题。我国的人均住房面积世界第五，又面临人口下降，未来二手房占比越来越高，再加上七十年产权的问题，让未来新房开发模式很难预计。投资，千万不要在需求不明确的行业里赌自己的运气。当年长虹低估了液晶电视替代的速度，大量囤积彩管，想通过价格战垄断上游材料扩大份额，结果反而加速了液晶电视的替代，自己陷入财务危机。行业发展如飞行棋下面是金·卡戴珊给儿子的生日礼物——一台三一重工的微型挖掘机，这不是明星搞怪，微型挖掘机是去年美国中产家庭的消费清单上，在大House，大泳池，大草坪之后的新晋网红——家里没有挖掘机，你都不知道出门跟邻居聊啥。挖掘机一度被认为是夕阳行业，认为需求会随着基建工程的减少而萎缩，事实上，不光是美国，在日本，微型挖掘机也因为人口老龄化而变成无所不能的“神器”。本文虽然列了五个阶段，但现实世界里，行业发展就像“飞行棋”，一开始投出“6”才能真正出发，一路上以前进为主，偶尔能“连续飞行”，但也常常遇到“后退几步”，甚至因犯规被“停止一次”，甚至被“打回大本营”的极刑。最大困扰还是来自竞争对手，特别是大家拥挤在同一个阶段时，一不小心就会被干掉。一开局领先，不一定能把领先优势进行到底，但到了后半程，拉开相当的差距后，只要自己不犯致命错误，很可能会将领先优势带到终局。然而，不管你多么领先对手接近终局，只要对手有能力掀翻桌子，重开一局，在一个新的战场上，你所有的优势都将荡然无存，这也是商业竞争的游戏中最残酷、最刺激、不断吸引新玩家入场的一点。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"000001.SH":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2541,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":100299705,"gmtCreate":1619615240407,"gmtModify":1704726814395,"author":{"id":"3581052926190229","authorId":"3581052926190229","name":"李金淼","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/af8a7a940bf810831f3ff666afc8f2dd","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3581052926190229","authorIdStr":"3581052926190229"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"I 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