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2021-12-25

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Beyond the Crypto Crash, a Big Squeeze Jolts Stock Markets Anew

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2022-11-27

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Here's Why We Think SPY And QQQ Risks Are Skewed To The Downside

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data-views=\"1\"></v-v>","text":"$PayPal(PYPL)$","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9966732663","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2706,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9966815085,"gmtCreate":1669480485548,"gmtModify":1676538200769,"author":{"id":"3581507356092469","authorId":"3581507356092469","name":"ZarNaing","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/79d952595eebae7246a8cf6ffc0054af","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3581507356092469","idStr":"3581507356092469"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Thanks","listText":"Thanks","text":"Thanks","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9966815085","repostId":"1110767793","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1110767793","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1669522613,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1110767793?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2022-11-27 12:16","market":"other","language":"en","title":"Here's Why We Think SPY And QQQ Risks Are Skewed To The Downside","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1110767793","media":"Seeking Alpha","summary":"SummaryEquities have been on a gradual climb since the beginning of the fourth quarter, with the SPY","content":"<html><head></head><body><p><b>Summary</b></p><ul><li>Equities have been on a gradual climb since the beginning of the fourth quarter, with the SPY up 13% and QQQ up 8% QTD.</li><li>There has also been some cautious optimism among investors on signs of easing inflation and the Fed&#39;s consideration for a moderation in the pace of coming rate hikes.</li><li>However, company fundamentals that were previously resilient are now just starting to show the first signs of cracks, while continued borrowing cost increases will only weigh on valuations further.</li><li>The following deep dive analysis will walk through past economic cycles, valuation theory, and recent economic data to gauge where Fed policy might be headed and the related implications on SPY and QQQ valuations as we head into the new year.</li></ul><p>The S&amp;P 500 (NYSEARCA: SPY/SP500) has gradually climbed more than 12% since the fourth quarter began, and closed at a two-month high during Wednesday&#39;s (November 23) session after a flurry of economic data released in recent weeks pointed to easing price pressures and market slowdown that could harbinger a dovish Fed policy stance over coming months. October CPI and PPI showed a stronger reduction in prices than expected, while recent data on jobless claims, retail sales, and business activity also pointed to a slowdown in demand, especially for discretionary goods.</p><p>Despite hawkish commentary from Fed officials still, investors are responding positively to remarks that the pace of rate hikes might be moderating from the recent slew of jumbo 75 bps increases. This has compounded market optimism on a potential shift on the Fed&#39;s policy tightening trajectory to a more dovish stance, with investors&#39; now focusing more on a potential slowdown in the pace of coming rate hikes than where the terminal rate might land (i.e. when the Fed might actually pivot).</p><p>But from a valuation and fundamental perspective, continued rate hikes are poised to squeeze multiples further into contraction, while ensuing deteriorating of financial conditions put corporate earnings at risk. With slowing demand, and mounting macroeconomic uncertainties over the Fed&#39;s tightening trajectory, when inflation would peak, and whether a recession is imminently still at large, volatility will likely continue to overpower markets. While it is difficult to gauge when exactly markets might bottom as macro deterioration gains momentum, the following analysis will turn to past tightening cycles and inflation environments, as well as basic valuation theory to explore where the market climate stands today and what to potentially expect over coming months.</p><p><b>Recent Economic Overview</b></p><p>The drumbeat for moderating inflation grew after CPI and PPI figures came in lower than expected. October CPI rose7.7% y/yand 0.4% m/m (core +6.3% y/y, +0.3% m/m), marking the &#34;smallest annual advance since the start of the year&#34; and coming in under economist estimates of 7.9% y/y and 0.6% m/m. U.S. PPI also eased in October, advancing 8% y/y(core +6.7% y/) and 0.2% m/m (core 0% m/m) compared with economist estimates of 8.3% y/y and 0.4% m/m. The back-to-back indication of easing price pressures pushed the S&amp;P 500 higher in early November, as markets saw it as an encouraging sign that the Fed might resort to less aggressive tightening in the months ahead and potentially achieve a soft-landing that could be beneficial to the valuation of risky assets that have been roiled across the board this year.</p><p>But investors were quickly sent back to the sidelines after stronger-than-expectedU.S. retail sales data for October indicated that the economy was still running hot, while Fed officials rushed to warn markets that &#34;inflation remains much too high for comfort&#34; and there is &#34;still a long way to go&#34; on keeping decades-high price increases under control. But a deeper look into the drivers of retail sales increases would suggest that consumer purchasing power is starting to feel the pinch of both rising inflation and interest rates, and the volume of sales is likely deteriorating too since the October figure of 1.3% is not adjusted for inflation.</p><p>As discussed in one of our recent coverages, the biggest driver of October&#39;s retail sales growth was on basic necessities like food and energy. Meanwhile, spending on discretionary goods like consumer electronics and apparel saw a marked decline, indicating that consumer purchasing power is waning on the back of surging inflation and tightening financial conditions:</p><blockquote>Meanwhile, retailers of discretionary goods such as apparel, consumer electronics, and sporting goods saw a sales decline of more than 2% over the same period. The results imply continued weakening in consumer purchasing power as inflationary pressures persist, while retailers of discretionary goods are looking to lure buyers ahead of the holiday shopping season with price cuts and steep discounts in an attempt to clear inventories.</blockquote><blockquote>Source: &#34;2 Retail Stocks to Watch After Retail Sales Rose in October - We are Watching Amazon and Apple&#34;</blockquote><p>The shift in consumer behavior in response to mounting macroeconomic uncertainties ahead is also telling of the impending demand slowdown over the coming months. Consumer credit card debt is fast approaching the pre-pandemic peak of $916 billion as of the end of September, and the continuation of this trend is further corroborated by recent observations by retailer Macy&#39;s (M), which saw its customers &#34;building larger balances on credit cards&#34;. The latest data shows that Americans&#39; credit card debt has increased by 15% y/y, the fastest pace in two decades while card borrowing costs topped 19%, a level not seen in 40 years.</p><p>The impending slowdown in demand and spending is further supported by the recent rise in jobless claims and contraction in business activity. U.S. jobless claims topped 240,000 during the week ended November 19th, topping consensus estimates of 225,000 and up from 17,000 in the prior week. The jump was the highest in months, a potential sign that the labor market might be cooling as a result of recent mass layoffs across big tech, though economists are also cautioning effects of seasonal attrition, which introduces a &#34;great deal of volatility into this data&#34;. The U.S. job market has remained stubbornly resilient despite the Fed&#39;s implementation of aggressive tools to slow the economy this year, with the jobless rate still at a 50-year low of3.7%:</p><blockquote>Tech companies represent about 2% of all employment in the country, said Richardson. That compares with 11% for the leisure and hospitality industry, which is still struggling to hire workers, she added.</blockquote><blockquote>Source:Bloomberg</blockquote><blockquote>The broad takeaway is a job market that&#39;s cooling albeit not very quickly. That lines up with Jerome Powell&#39;s characterization earlier this week, when the Fed chair acknowledged conditions haven&#39;t softened yet in an &#34;obvious&#34; way and said the central bank is eyeing a higher peak interest rate than it was two months ago.</blockquote><blockquote>Source:Bloomberg</blockquote><p>But added softness in business activity indicates that even &#34;some of the more resilient parts of the economy&#34; are undoubtedly showing cracks as a result of the Fed&#39;s aggressive policy stance deployed this year. The S&amp;P Global Flash U.S. Composite PMI, which measures activity across the American private sector, saw a &#34;solid contraction&#34; this month. The index reached the &#34;second lowest level&#34; since the onset of the pandemic and imitates the dire business environment in 2009. Managers reported slowing demand and new orders due to the effects of &#34;rising interest rates, economic uncertainty and the lingering effects of still elevated inflation&#34;. Consistent with commentary gathered in the latest third quarter earnings season, promotional offers are gaining momentum across suppliers, factories and service providers to &#34;help boost flagging sales&#34;, which is poised to weigh on private sector earnings over coming months.</p><p>Although easing inflationary pressures is a welcomed sight, recent data points to rapid unravelling of an economy that is likely headed towards recession. Minutes from the FOMC meeting in November indicated that policymakers are now seeing a 50/50 risk of recession within the next year, compared with a more aggressive forecast of65%on Wall Street and as much as100%by a Bloomberg Economics model.</p><p><b>What the Fed Says</b></p><p>Amidst the paradox between recent market optimism and a rapidly deteriorating macro backdrop, the Federal Reserve is sticking to its hawkish policy stance in hopes of preventing an unravelling of the work done to date to quell inflation. Recall Fed Chair Jerome Powell&#39;s stern remarks on managing market expectations during the post-meeting conference in November:</p><blockquote>CHRISTOPHER RUGABER. Great, and just a quick follow. It looks like stock and bond markets are reacting positively to your announcement so far. Is that something you wanted to see? Is that a problem or what-how that might affect your future policy to see this positive reaction?</blockquote><blockquote>CHAIR POWELL. We&#39;re not targeting any one or two particular things. Our message should be-what I&#39;m trying to do is make sure that our message is clear, which is that we think we have a ways to go, we have some ground to cover with interest rates before we get to, before we get to that level of interest rates that we think is sufficiently restrictive…If you look at the-I have a table of the last 12 months of 12-month readings, and there&#39;s really no pattern there. We&#39;re exactly where we were a year ago. So I would also say, it&#39;s premature to discuss pausing. And it&#39;s not something that we&#39;re thinking about. That&#39;s really not a conversation to be had now. We have a ways to go. And the last thing I&#39;ll say is that I would want people to understand our commitment to getting this done and to not making the mistake of not doing enough or the mistake of withdrawing our strong policy and doing that too soon. So those-I control those messages, and that&#39;s my job.</blockquote><blockquote>Source:Transcript of Chair Powell&#39;s Press Conference, November 2, 2022</blockquote><p>And the same policy stance has been proclaimed unanimously across commentary from Fed officials as of late, with many sticking to the narrative that there is still &#34;a long way to go&#34; when it comes to quelling inflation. Despite acknowledging that the &#34;lags with which monetary policy affects economic activity and inflation&#34; are now materializing, which draws the need to start considering a slowdown in the pace of rate hikes, policymakers remain fixed on tightening policy into restrictive territory, nonetheless. The hawkish commentary maintained indicates that &#34;the Fed is likely to lean against easing financial conditions&#34; despite recent data supporting that the economy is slowing. Specifically, a slowing economy is what the Fed essentially wants to ensure inflation is reined in. The intention of continued hawkishness is to prevent markets from mistaking any potential near-term deceleration in the pace of rate increases with a reversal of the economy&#39;s current slowdown.:</p><blockquote>The big picture illustrates that the Fed intends to slow down in order to allow more time for lags to operate and cumulative tightening to date to show up in the data. The hawkish talk from Chair Powell and many Fed officials subsequently is likely intended to provide air cover for the slowing to take place without an excessive easing of financial conditions.</blockquote><blockquote>Source:Bloomberg</blockquote><p><b>What the Past Says</b></p><p>While continued market volatility in the near-term is almost certain, when the market might bottom remains a big question mark. The Fed&#39;s monetary policy tightening campaign implemented this year is the most aggressive in 40-years, but the economy&#39;s relative resilience this time around when compared to the past suggests that some macroeconomic factors have inevitably changed.</p><p>For instance, technology plays a bigger role in today&#39;s economic development, while simpler factors like consumer behavior and the social construct&#39;s role in the global macro economy have also evolved significantly in the past decade alone. The recent COVID pandemic and the ensuing disruptions to businesses and global supply chains has also injected further complexity into today&#39;s macroeconomic conditions compared to past economic downturns, inflationary environments, and monetary policy tightening cycles. Yet, there are also many overlapping similarities between today&#39;s inflationary environment and monetary policy tightening cycles compared to ones in the past that could potentially shed some light on where the economy stands today and what potentially lies ahead.</p><p><b>The &#34;Global Recession&#34; in the 1970s to 1980s</b></p><p><b>Context</b>. Inflation reached double-digits in the U.S. and across major economies during the 1980s. Similar to today&#39;s situation, soaring food and energy prices were culprit to runaway inflation at the time. The back-to-back energy crisis stemming from the Arab oil embargo in the early 1970s and the Iranian Revolution later the same decade, which resulted in a rapid decline in supplies, pushed oil prices up by as much as fourfold at the time.</p><p>Inflation topped 12% in 1974 with the Fed funds rate rising from 7% to 16% by early 1975, pushing the economy into recession. A stark Fed pivot followed with the Fed funds rate cut to 5.25% by April 1975, causing inflation to return while growth remained stagnate. By the time the second energy crisis came around, accommodative policies were deployed by the Fed in hopes of countering unemployment, but backfired by worsening the pace of price increases - inflation rose from below 5% in early 1976 prior to the second energy crisis resulting from the Iranian Revolution, to 7% by 1979. The Federal Funds Rate was pushed from 6.9% to 10% over the same period in hopes of stamping out inflationary pressure without &#34;stifling fragile economic growth&#34; at the time, but to no avail, which led to an extended period of stagflation instead and pushed the economy into recession again.</p><p><b>Timeline of quantitative tightening</b>. The so-called &#34;stop-go policy&#34; during the 1970s came to an end when Paul Volcker took office as Fed Chair in 1979. Volcker made quelling inflation a priority, &#34;even if it came at the detriment of short-term employment&#34;. To some extent, this is similar to Fed Chair Powell&#39;s commitment to arresting decades-high inflation &#34;even if doing so risks an economic downturn&#34;.</p><p>Inflation had already entered double-digits at 11% when Volcker became Fed Chair, while America&#39;s jobless rate was inching close to 6% near the end of the 1970s. Fed rate hikes continued, pushing the economy into deep recession by 1982 with the unemployment rate reaching 11%. Over a three-year span, the Volker-led Fed pushed its benchmark rate as high as 20% and stayed in the double-digit range until inflation had fallen to 5% by late 1982. The Fed pivoted then with rates declining to single-digits, alleviating unemployment from the peak of 11% to 8% by 1983.</p><p><b>S&amp;P 500 Bottom</b>. The S&amp;P 500 traded at single-digit(7.4x to 9.0x) estimated earnings when Volcker led an aggressive quantitative tightening cycle, which was reflective of the lower value of future cash flows. The market subsequently recovered when it became structurally clear that double-digit inflation was put away for good in the latter half of the 1980s.</p><p><b>Policy mistakes</b>. The stop-go monetary policy implemented in the 1970s has been largely viewed as a policy mistake today:</p><blockquote>In the 1970s, the Fed pursued what economists would call &#34;stop-go&#34; monetary policy, which alternated between fighting high unemployment and high inflation. During the &#34;go&#34; periods, the Fed lowered interest rates to loosen the money supply and target lower unemployment. During the &#34;stop&#34; periods, when inflation mounted, the Fed would raise interest rates to reduce inflationary pressure.</blockquote><blockquote>Source:Federal Reserve History</blockquote><p>The on-and-off tightening eventually let inflation and unemployment run loose through the decade. Today, Fed Chair Powell looks to be taking a page from the 1970s on managing risks of runaway inflation, cautioning against a premature loosening of monetary policies even if economic recession is becoming a certain possibility.</p><blockquote>We are not trying to provoke, and I don&#39;t think we will need to provoke, a recession,&#34; Powell said at a hearing before the U.S. Senate Banking Committee, although he acknowledged that a recession was &#34;certainly a possibility&#34; and events in the last few months around the world had made it more difficult to reduce inflation without causing one</blockquote><blockquote>Source:Reuters</blockquote><p><b>Greenspan Tightening 1999 to 2000</b></p><p><b>Context.</b> The Federal Reserve had resorted to monetary easing in 1998 as a pre-emptive measure to shore up U.S. growth&#34;in the face of economic turmoil overseas&#34; at the time, even though unemployment was at a historical low rate of 4.5%. But by 1999, it was clear the U.S. economy was booming, exhibiting a combination of robust consumer demand and job market, while inflation remained in check. This led the Fed to reverse courseunder Alan Greenspan leadership, and aboard a rate hike cycle that consisted of a 175 bps increases in 1999 from 4.75% to 6.5% by mid-2000.</p><p><b>Timeline of quantitative tightening.</b> The 1999 tightening cycle was largely viewed as the Fed&#39;s intention to &#34;protect consumers and financial markets from something it has yet to see - a substantial rise in inflationary pressures&#34;. Inflation was largely flat at the time, while GDP growth almos thalved from 4.3% in the first quarter to 2.3% in the second quarter at the time.</p><p>By mid-2000, the Fed funds rate had reached 6.5%. Coinciding with the dotcom bubble burst that led to severe market instability, fears that continued tightening would slow the U.S. economy into recession had escalated. A Fed pivot ensued with rates cutting back to the 3% range, followed by further reductions in 2001 after the 9-11 World Trade Center terrorist attack that took the Fed funds rate to the 1% range.</p><p><b>S&amp;P 500 Bottom.</b> Over the course of the Greenspan-led &#34;flip-flop on interest rates&#34; between 1999 and 2001, stocks actually sold off even when the Fed pivoted to monetary easing. The selloff continued into late 2002 to levels not seen since 1998.</p><p>Market instability was marked by a combination of lofty valuations in internet stocks that fell to shambles after a slew of fraudulent reporting (cue Enron) and bankruptcies surfaced, underscoring rapid erosion of investors&#39; confidence. The 9-11 terrorist attack also escalated uncertainties over the U.S. economic outlook at the time, adding pressure to the market downturn at the time. The S&amp;P 500 bottomed by late 2002, trading at double-digit (~30x) estimated earnings - a stark contrast to observations in the 1980s - which was consistent with record-low borrowing costs at the time.</p><p><b>Policy mistakes.</b> The low interest rates embraced by Greenspan to arrest market instability and declines was largely known as the &#34;Greenspan put&#34;, which is viewed today as a key factor that led the run-up to the 2008 housing market collapse. The Greenspan put instilled a mentality that the Fed would restore market stability in the event of declines - essentially, moral hazard - which caused &#34;excessive risk-taking in stock markets&#34;. This eventually led to high-flying valuations, particularly in internet stocks, that crashed in the 2000s. Similar happened again when financial markets collapsed in 2008.</p><p><b>The &#34;Great Recession&#34; of 2007 to 2009 and the 2008 Financial Crisis</b></p><p><b>Context.</b> Rate hikes resumed under Greenspan&#39;s leadership in 2004 when GDP growth was pushing 4% while inflation was at 2.7% and unemployment at 5.4%, showing signs of an overheating economy. Interest rates rose from 1.0% to 5.25% over the course of 17 incremental hikes between 2004 and 2006, when inflation surpassed 3%.</p><p>By 2007, GDP growth had fallen to 2%, and deteriorated rapidly to 0.1% the following year with unemployment surpassing 7% and inflation pushing 4%. The U.S. economy had effectively entered recession at the time, with unemployment reaching 10% by late 2009 fuelled by the housing bubble burst in 2008 (i.e. 2008 financial crisis). The S&amp;P 500 fell 57% over the same period, wiping out close to$15 trillion in American&#39;s net worth.</p><p><b>Timeline of quantitative tightening.</b> The 2004 to 2006 tightening cycle peaked with the Fed funds rate at 5.25%, but was insufficient in stamping out inflation and keeping unemployment at bay. This effectively drove the U.S. economy into recession by 2007, with a combination of fiscal and monetary policy easing implemented under the leadership of then-president George W. Bush and then-Fed-Chair Ben Bernanke with aims of shoring up the economy. The 2008 financial crisis ensuing from the housing bubble burst that left &#34;trillions of dollars of worthless investments in subprime mortgages&#34; also compounded pains.</p><p>By the end of 2008, the Fed funds rate had already been cut to the0% to 0.25%range to stem the economy from unravelling further. The FOMC had intended to keep the Fed funds rate &#34;at exceptionally low levels for some time and then for an extended period&#34; at the time, and the near-zero range eventually held until 2015. Monetary policy under Bernanke&#39;s leadership was focused on the &#34;use [of the FOMC&#39;s] policy statement to provide forward guidance for the federal funds rate&#34;, which helped manage market&#39;s understanding of economic and financial conditions during the Great Recession.</p><p>The Fed also implemented &#34;large scale asset purchase&#34; (&#34;LSAP&#34;) programs at the time to ensure &#34;longer-term public and private borrowing rates&#34; were kept at low levels in alignment with the near-zero Fed funds rate. This included the Fed&#39;s buyback of mortgage-backed securities (&#34;MBS&#34;) and Treasuries at the time to &#34;reduce the cost and increase the availability of credit for home purchases&#34; - a detrimental corner of the market during the financial crisis. The LSAP program is also similar to the MBS and Treasury buybacks implemented by the Fed at the onset of the COVID pandemic in2020to &#34;help ensure chaotic markets function properly [and] ensure credit flows to corporations as well as state and local governments&#34;.</p><p><b>S&amp;P 500 Bottom.</b> The S&amp;P 500 fell 57% between October 2007 and March 2009, though the economy remained weak with unemployment still on the run towards 9.5% in June 2009 before peaking at 10% in October 2009. The index was trading at more than 70x estimated earnings at its trough in March 2009, which was consistent with the hit on corporate fundamental performance across the board, as well as record-low borrowing costs at the 0% to 0.25% range. The valuation multiple moderated to the 20x-range of forward earnings by 2010 as corporate fundamentals started to recover, while the Fed funds rate was held steady at the near-zero range.</p><p><b>Policy mistakes.</b> As discussed in the earlier section, the housing bubble burst that also contributed to the Global Recession from 2007 to 2009 was likely partially driven by market moral hazard instilled by the Greenspan put. Recall that Bernanke also sought to rapid rate cuts between 2007 and 2008 in response to deteriorating macro conditions and the sliding market, adopting a similar strategy as Greenspan that &#34;may have been a catalyst contributing to the conditions of the 2008 financial crisis&#34;.</p><p>However, Bernanke&#39;s subsequent adherence to low interest rates for an extended period, as well as bank bailouts that cost as much as$700 billion, and other monetary easing policies such as the LSAP program ($1.75 trillion) was key to the long, yet stable market recovery in the years that followed.</p><p><b>The COVID Pandemic</b></p><p><b>Context.</b> Fed rate hikes resumed in 2015 under Fed Chair Janet Yellen after economic growth showed an extended period of stabilization in the 2% range, while inflation was flat with unemployment at 5%. The hikes continued even after Jerome Powell took over as Fed Chair in 2018 until the Fed funds rate reached 2.5% by the end of the same year.</p><p><b>Timeline of quantitative tightening.</b> The Federal Reserve resumed monetary policy tightening in 2015 upon evidence of &#34;improvement in the labor market [and reasonable confidence] that inflation would move back to its 2% objective over the medium term&#34;. As mentioned in the earlier section, unemployment had fallen to 5% in 2015 from the peak of 10% during late 2009. The intention was to pursue rate hikes while also maintaining an accommodative policy stance to &#34;support further improvement in labor market conditions and a return to 2% inflation&#34;.</p><p>The Fed pivoted to rate cuts by the summer of 2019 after the global equity market lost close to $7 trillion of its value by the end of 2018. However, GDP maintained at the 2%-range at the time, while unemployment was at 3.5% and inflation inched up to 1.9%, which stoked concerns of an eventual economic downturn. Rates were cut from the peak of 2.5% in late 2018 to 1.75% by late 2019. Rapid easing took place with rates sliding to the 0% to 0.25% range at the onset of the COVID pandemic in March 2020.</p><p><b>S&amp;P 500 Bottom.</b> More than $7 trillion in global market value was lost in 2018, with the S&amp;P 500 giving up close to 10% of its value (or almost 18% from the 2018 peak in September) before finding bottom near year-end. The index was trading at about 20x forward earnings at the time, which was consistent with rising, yet still low, interest rates at the time, relative to past financial crises.</p><p><b>Policy mistakes</b>. Market critics have viewed the 2015 rate hike cycle as &#34;premature&#34;, given inflation was still struggling to climb back towards the 2% Fed target at the time. It was not until 2018 when inflation topped 2%, which also coincided with market&#39;s negative reaction to rising borrowing costs following the preceding years of a near-zero Fed funds rate.</p><p><b>What Exactly is Valuation Composed of?</b></p><p>Before drawing on past economic cycles to gauge forward expectations, we turn to basic valuation theory to understand the interaction between key driving factors, including interest rates, inflation, unemployment and GDP. Most of the time, when we think of valuation, we think of the fundamental leg (e.g. growth, earnings, cash flows, etc.) and the valuation multiple (which is influenced by cost of capital / discount rate). But in economic theory, valuation can also be split into the following two components: steady-state firm value + future value creation.</p><p><b>Steady-State Firm Value</b></p><p>The steady-state value is defined as the value of the firm when &#34;NOPAT (net operating profit after tax) is sustainable indefinitely and incremental investments will neither add, nor subtract, value&#34;. This does not necessarily mean the point at which a company grows at 0% forever, but rather the point of growth that stays constant regardless of whether incremental investments are made (i.e. it could be a steady-state perpetual growth or declining rate).</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/578dbfd401111f95b82426bc244ff6c8\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"67\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Steady-State Value Formula (Valuation Theory)</p><p>One way to depict steady-state value is via the steady-state firm value P/E ratio, which is defined as 1 divided by cost of capital:</p><blockquote>A company can continue to grow earnings as it invests at the cost of capital. It will just fail to create value, and hence should trade at its steady-state worth. We can readily translate from the steady-state value to a steady-state price-earnings multiple, which is the reciprocal of the cost of [capital].</blockquote><blockquote>Source:Credit Suisse</blockquote><p>The intuition is to find the valuation multiple (i.e. P/E ratio, in this case) reflective of the point at which continued investments at the cost of capital will continue to drive earnings growth, but not necessarily yield any incremental value creation, and hence stay at a steady-state of &#34;1&#34;.</p><p>To gauge where the market&#39;s steady-state value might be headed, we turn to key driving factor, cost of capital. Cost of capital is essentially the borrowing cost, which can be benchmarked against the Fed funds rate. Based on an understanding of past economic cycles, the Federal Reserve today is likely leaning towards the Volcker era, with a sprinkle of Bernanke.</p><p>What this means is that the Fed&#39;s commitment to taming inflation - even if it comes at the cost of some near-term economic pain - will eventually lead to more rate hikes in coming months, especially as inflation today remains far from the 2% target. This is consistent with the growing drumbeat of calls by Fed officials to raise rates into &#34;restrictive territory&#34; and holding it there until there is structural evidence inflation is back on track towards the committee&#39;s target range. To prevent further policy mistakes (we say &#34;further&#34; since the whole &#34;transitory inflation&#34; narrative last year obviously did not work out), responding to recent signs of slowing demand with a Fed pivot is essentially off the table, as implementing such as policy would likely be begging for a repeat of the &#34;stop-go&#34; disaster in the 1970s before Volcker. At best, the Fed will likely stick to what it has been doing at recent meetings - setting clean and clear forward expectations for markets like Bernanke had. In today&#39;s case, this means there will be more tightening in financial conditions that could potentially push the terminal rate higher, while keeping in mind of the &#34;effects of lags in monetary policy&#34; and start considering a moderation in the pace of coming rate hikes.</p><p>Traders are largely expecting a moderation in the pace of rate hikes from the jumbo 75 bps seen over the summer and fall, to a half-point increase at the coming December meeting, which would bring the Fed funds rate range from the current 3.75% to 4%, to 4.25% to 4.5%. The terminal rate is expected to reach 5% to 5.25%based on current prices on 1H23 Fed swaps. Substituting the estimated terminal rate of about 5% plus an additional percentage point to account for forward market risk premium (reflective of difference between 1-year Treasury yield of about 4.75% today and the current Fed funds rate range of 3.75% and 4%) as proxy for market cost of capital in gauging the steady-state firm value P/E ratio would yield about 17x. The S&amp;P 500, which can be viewed as a proxy for the weighted average of its constituents&#39; respective valuations, currently trades at about 20x estimated earnings. If market steady-state firm value is to be adjusted as a result of continued Fed policy tightening, the S&amp;P 500 could potentially move another leg lower by as much as 15% between now and when the Fed funds rate peaks in the current tightening cycle, which is estimated to occur by mid-2023.</p><p>But there are a myriad of other factors that could impact where the so-called steady-state firm value is headed as Fed tightening continues over coming months, including economic growth and investor sentiment on a broader basis. This is consistent with the observation discussed in earlier sections that market bottomed in March 2009 even though the economy continued to deteriorate with unemployment hitting trough at 10% seven months later in October 2009. This could both be reflective of the fact that market is forward looking (or priced at estimated earnings and forward macro expectations) and/or the lag effect in which monetary policy works, among other factors. What this essentially means is that while rate hikes are expected to peak by mid-2023, it does not necessarily mean that is also when the market will bottom. But nonetheless, even if it is almost impossible to gauge the exact timing, it is more likely that not that the market is skewed towards further downside risks through the first quarter of 2023 at the minimum.</p><p>In addition to the steady-state P/E ratio method, the Gordon growth model is another way to gauge steady-state firm value.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/97b0f365e67a424db79cb49516d8b5f7\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"74\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Gordon Growth Model (Valuation Theory)</p><p>The key assumption here other than cost of capital is GDP growth. GDP growth is typically used as a key benchmark to gauge the implied perpetual growth of a company, with addition consideration of the maturity of its industry as well as other company-specific factors such as market leadership, competitive advantages, and/or market share:</p><blockquote>Companies operating in industries that are higher growth in nature are typically valued at a perpetual growth rate closer to or more than GDP, given their greater contributions to economic growth. Alternatively, companies operating in lower growth and/or mature industries are typically allocated a lower perpetual growth rate.</blockquote><blockquote>Source: &#34;Shorting Tesla: Bridging Lofty Valuations to Economics&#34;</blockquote><p>As discussed in the earlier section, demand is likely to show a marked slowdown in coming months as consumer purchasing power wanes, especially if unemployment worsens, which will lead to further deteriorating in economic growth. Even though the labor market has remained largely resilient despite the recent slew of high-paid tech layoffs (accounts foronly ~2%of total U.S. employment), consumer weakness is expected to tame demand further and eventually hit corporate earnings, potentially resulting in more cost-driven job cuts. This is further corroborated by the gradual uptick in recent jobless claimsas well as jobless rate to &#34;3.7%from a more than five-decade low&#34;. This means GDP is likely to slow as interest rates increase, widening the spread between cost of capital and growth in the denominator of the Gordon growth model, and inadvertently, diminishing the steady-state firm value.</p><p><b>Future Value Creation Premium</b></p><p>The future value creation premium accounts for the incremental value that additional investments at the cost of capital would earn (i.e. return on capital), and also takes into consideration the time period in which this value-creating opportunity would last.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/08bfdfec8d89633ac41365f0fcd39554\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"48\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Future Value Creation Formula (Valuation Theory)</p><p>This is essentially a premium to the steady-state firm value, and explains the lofty valuations relative to broader markets observed in certain stocks, such as Apple(AAPL), Tesla(TSLA) and Snowflake(SNOW), today. Admittedly, these companies have either or all of outperforming balance sheets, profit margins, and/or growth prospects relative to peers, but not all are valued in proportion to the mean growth-valuation ratio observed among their respective peer groups.</p><p>In addition to the &#34;competitive advantage period&#34;, which measures the anticipated time period in which the added value-creating opportunity would last, key assumptions in deriving future value creation premium is return on capital and cost of capital. And return on capital can be substituted by anticipated economic expansion, or GDP growth - when the economy is good, growth and profit margins will likely perform better, and vice versa. But as discussed in the earlier section, GDP growth is likely skewed to the downside within the foreseeable future as demand continues to slow and profit margins get squeezed as a result of high input costs, and near-term requirements for more-than-usual promotional offers to offload excess product inventories.</p><p>Paired with the anticipation for greater increases to the cost of capital as a result of Fed hawkishness that will more likely than not continue for a while longer, the cost-return spread in the numerator of the future value creation component of valuation is poised to narrow. And as cost of capital continues to increase, the denominator will also expand, hence diminishing the future value creation component of broader market valuations, which corroborates the expectation for more downside potential within the near-term.</p><p><b>Implications for the S&amp;P 500 and Nasdaq 100 - Is the Bottom Near?</b></p><p>Based on valuation theory, and the anticipation for sustained hawkish Fed sentiment drawn from historical observations, the broader market is likely to see further volatility ahead as valuations adjust to rising rates and declining demand. While the timing at which markets will bottom remains uncertain, we are of the view that company fundamentals are only just starting to feel the impact of consumer weakness, which points to further value erosion through 1H23.</p><p>Specifically, consumer spending has remained resilient through the first half of 2022 despite deteriorating sentiment due to surging inflation and rising borrowing costs. But headed into the first half of the fourth quarter, declining business activity and warnings of a marked slowdown among consumer-centric industries such as retail underscore that waning consumer sentiment is now really materializing into real weakness. This is further supported by the consistent drop in American household savings and rise in credit card debt, among other observations, discussed earlier on in this analysis.</p><p>And a specific note to the tech-heavy Nasdaq 100 (NASDAQ: QQQ/NDX), constituents&#39; valuations are likely to be hit harder compared to those in the S&amp;P 500 given their cash flows are further out (with some still in pre-revenue phase and/or unprofitable) from realization and subject to a heavier discount as costs of capital increase. The index also consists of constituents with some of the biggest valuation premiums given lofty forward growth expectations previously priced in that may not materialize as expected within the foreseeable future, thus pointing to greater vulnerability to downside risks ahead.</p><p>And given risks of further macro deterioration are now skewed higher with recent economic data pointing to a moderation in the labor market, while monetary policy tightening continues to flow through different corners of the economy, the ensuing rise in the likelihood of a recession will likely take the market a leg lower through the first half of 2023, even if we start to see structural easing in price pressures.</p></body></html>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Here's Why We Think SPY And QQQ Risks Are Skewed To The Downside</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nHere's Why We Think SPY And QQQ Risks Are Skewed To The Downside\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2022-11-27 12:16 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://seekingalpha.com/article/4560523-heres-why-we-think-spy-and-qqq-risks-are-skewed-to-the-downside><strong>Seeking Alpha</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>SummaryEquities have been on a gradual climb since the beginning of the fourth quarter, with the SPY up 13% and QQQ up 8% QTD.There has also been some cautious optimism among investors on signs of ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4560523-heres-why-we-think-spy-and-qqq-risks-are-skewed-to-the-downside\">Source Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"SPY":"标普500ETF","QQQ":"纳指100ETF"},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4560523-heres-why-we-think-spy-and-qqq-risks-are-skewed-to-the-downside","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1110767793","content_text":"SummaryEquities have been on a gradual climb since the beginning of the fourth quarter, with the SPY up 13% and QQQ up 8% QTD.There has also been some cautious optimism among investors on signs of easing inflation and the Fed's consideration for a moderation in the pace of coming rate hikes.However, company fundamentals that were previously resilient are now just starting to show the first signs of cracks, while continued borrowing cost increases will only weigh on valuations further.The following deep dive analysis will walk through past economic cycles, valuation theory, and recent economic data to gauge where Fed policy might be headed and the related implications on SPY and QQQ valuations as we head into the new year.The S&P 500 (NYSEARCA: SPY/SP500) has gradually climbed more than 12% since the fourth quarter began, and closed at a two-month high during Wednesday's (November 23) session after a flurry of economic data released in recent weeks pointed to easing price pressures and market slowdown that could harbinger a dovish Fed policy stance over coming months. October CPI and PPI showed a stronger reduction in prices than expected, while recent data on jobless claims, retail sales, and business activity also pointed to a slowdown in demand, especially for discretionary goods.Despite hawkish commentary from Fed officials still, investors are responding positively to remarks that the pace of rate hikes might be moderating from the recent slew of jumbo 75 bps increases. This has compounded market optimism on a potential shift on the Fed's policy tightening trajectory to a more dovish stance, with investors' now focusing more on a potential slowdown in the pace of coming rate hikes than where the terminal rate might land (i.e. when the Fed might actually pivot).But from a valuation and fundamental perspective, continued rate hikes are poised to squeeze multiples further into contraction, while ensuing deteriorating of financial conditions put corporate earnings at risk. With slowing demand, and mounting macroeconomic uncertainties over the Fed's tightening trajectory, when inflation would peak, and whether a recession is imminently still at large, volatility will likely continue to overpower markets. While it is difficult to gauge when exactly markets might bottom as macro deterioration gains momentum, the following analysis will turn to past tightening cycles and inflation environments, as well as basic valuation theory to explore where the market climate stands today and what to potentially expect over coming months.Recent Economic OverviewThe drumbeat for moderating inflation grew after CPI and PPI figures came in lower than expected. October CPI rose7.7% y/yand 0.4% m/m (core +6.3% y/y, +0.3% m/m), marking the \"smallest annual advance since the start of the year\" and coming in under economist estimates of 7.9% y/y and 0.6% m/m. U.S. PPI also eased in October, advancing 8% y/y(core +6.7% y/) and 0.2% m/m (core 0% m/m) compared with economist estimates of 8.3% y/y and 0.4% m/m. The back-to-back indication of easing price pressures pushed the S&P 500 higher in early November, as markets saw it as an encouraging sign that the Fed might resort to less aggressive tightening in the months ahead and potentially achieve a soft-landing that could be beneficial to the valuation of risky assets that have been roiled across the board this year.But investors were quickly sent back to the sidelines after stronger-than-expectedU.S. retail sales data for October indicated that the economy was still running hot, while Fed officials rushed to warn markets that \"inflation remains much too high for comfort\" and there is \"still a long way to go\" on keeping decades-high price increases under control. But a deeper look into the drivers of retail sales increases would suggest that consumer purchasing power is starting to feel the pinch of both rising inflation and interest rates, and the volume of sales is likely deteriorating too since the October figure of 1.3% is not adjusted for inflation.As discussed in one of our recent coverages, the biggest driver of October's retail sales growth was on basic necessities like food and energy. Meanwhile, spending on discretionary goods like consumer electronics and apparel saw a marked decline, indicating that consumer purchasing power is waning on the back of surging inflation and tightening financial conditions:Meanwhile, retailers of discretionary goods such as apparel, consumer electronics, and sporting goods saw a sales decline of more than 2% over the same period. The results imply continued weakening in consumer purchasing power as inflationary pressures persist, while retailers of discretionary goods are looking to lure buyers ahead of the holiday shopping season with price cuts and steep discounts in an attempt to clear inventories.Source: \"2 Retail Stocks to Watch After Retail Sales Rose in October - We are Watching Amazon and Apple\"The shift in consumer behavior in response to mounting macroeconomic uncertainties ahead is also telling of the impending demand slowdown over the coming months. Consumer credit card debt is fast approaching the pre-pandemic peak of $916 billion as of the end of September, and the continuation of this trend is further corroborated by recent observations by retailer Macy's (M), which saw its customers \"building larger balances on credit cards\". The latest data shows that Americans' credit card debt has increased by 15% y/y, the fastest pace in two decades while card borrowing costs topped 19%, a level not seen in 40 years.The impending slowdown in demand and spending is further supported by the recent rise in jobless claims and contraction in business activity. U.S. jobless claims topped 240,000 during the week ended November 19th, topping consensus estimates of 225,000 and up from 17,000 in the prior week. The jump was the highest in months, a potential sign that the labor market might be cooling as a result of recent mass layoffs across big tech, though economists are also cautioning effects of seasonal attrition, which introduces a \"great deal of volatility into this data\". The U.S. job market has remained stubbornly resilient despite the Fed's implementation of aggressive tools to slow the economy this year, with the jobless rate still at a 50-year low of3.7%:Tech companies represent about 2% of all employment in the country, said Richardson. That compares with 11% for the leisure and hospitality industry, which is still struggling to hire workers, she added.Source:BloombergThe broad takeaway is a job market that's cooling albeit not very quickly. That lines up with Jerome Powell's characterization earlier this week, when the Fed chair acknowledged conditions haven't softened yet in an \"obvious\" way and said the central bank is eyeing a higher peak interest rate than it was two months ago.Source:BloombergBut added softness in business activity indicates that even \"some of the more resilient parts of the economy\" are undoubtedly showing cracks as a result of the Fed's aggressive policy stance deployed this year. The S&P Global Flash U.S. Composite PMI, which measures activity across the American private sector, saw a \"solid contraction\" this month. The index reached the \"second lowest level\" since the onset of the pandemic and imitates the dire business environment in 2009. Managers reported slowing demand and new orders due to the effects of \"rising interest rates, economic uncertainty and the lingering effects of still elevated inflation\". Consistent with commentary gathered in the latest third quarter earnings season, promotional offers are gaining momentum across suppliers, factories and service providers to \"help boost flagging sales\", which is poised to weigh on private sector earnings over coming months.Although easing inflationary pressures is a welcomed sight, recent data points to rapid unravelling of an economy that is likely headed towards recession. Minutes from the FOMC meeting in November indicated that policymakers are now seeing a 50/50 risk of recession within the next year, compared with a more aggressive forecast of65%on Wall Street and as much as100%by a Bloomberg Economics model.What the Fed SaysAmidst the paradox between recent market optimism and a rapidly deteriorating macro backdrop, the Federal Reserve is sticking to its hawkish policy stance in hopes of preventing an unravelling of the work done to date to quell inflation. Recall Fed Chair Jerome Powell's stern remarks on managing market expectations during the post-meeting conference in November:CHRISTOPHER RUGABER. Great, and just a quick follow. It looks like stock and bond markets are reacting positively to your announcement so far. Is that something you wanted to see? Is that a problem or what-how that might affect your future policy to see this positive reaction?CHAIR POWELL. We're not targeting any one or two particular things. Our message should be-what I'm trying to do is make sure that our message is clear, which is that we think we have a ways to go, we have some ground to cover with interest rates before we get to, before we get to that level of interest rates that we think is sufficiently restrictive…If you look at the-I have a table of the last 12 months of 12-month readings, and there's really no pattern there. We're exactly where we were a year ago. So I would also say, it's premature to discuss pausing. And it's not something that we're thinking about. That's really not a conversation to be had now. We have a ways to go. And the last thing I'll say is that I would want people to understand our commitment to getting this done and to not making the mistake of not doing enough or the mistake of withdrawing our strong policy and doing that too soon. So those-I control those messages, and that's my job.Source:Transcript of Chair Powell's Press Conference, November 2, 2022And the same policy stance has been proclaimed unanimously across commentary from Fed officials as of late, with many sticking to the narrative that there is still \"a long way to go\" when it comes to quelling inflation. Despite acknowledging that the \"lags with which monetary policy affects economic activity and inflation\" are now materializing, which draws the need to start considering a slowdown in the pace of rate hikes, policymakers remain fixed on tightening policy into restrictive territory, nonetheless. The hawkish commentary maintained indicates that \"the Fed is likely to lean against easing financial conditions\" despite recent data supporting that the economy is slowing. Specifically, a slowing economy is what the Fed essentially wants to ensure inflation is reined in. The intention of continued hawkishness is to prevent markets from mistaking any potential near-term deceleration in the pace of rate increases with a reversal of the economy's current slowdown.:The big picture illustrates that the Fed intends to slow down in order to allow more time for lags to operate and cumulative tightening to date to show up in the data. The hawkish talk from Chair Powell and many Fed officials subsequently is likely intended to provide air cover for the slowing to take place without an excessive easing of financial conditions.Source:BloombergWhat the Past SaysWhile continued market volatility in the near-term is almost certain, when the market might bottom remains a big question mark. The Fed's monetary policy tightening campaign implemented this year is the most aggressive in 40-years, but the economy's relative resilience this time around when compared to the past suggests that some macroeconomic factors have inevitably changed.For instance, technology plays a bigger role in today's economic development, while simpler factors like consumer behavior and the social construct's role in the global macro economy have also evolved significantly in the past decade alone. The recent COVID pandemic and the ensuing disruptions to businesses and global supply chains has also injected further complexity into today's macroeconomic conditions compared to past economic downturns, inflationary environments, and monetary policy tightening cycles. Yet, there are also many overlapping similarities between today's inflationary environment and monetary policy tightening cycles compared to ones in the past that could potentially shed some light on where the economy stands today and what potentially lies ahead.The \"Global Recession\" in the 1970s to 1980sContext. Inflation reached double-digits in the U.S. and across major economies during the 1980s. Similar to today's situation, soaring food and energy prices were culprit to runaway inflation at the time. The back-to-back energy crisis stemming from the Arab oil embargo in the early 1970s and the Iranian Revolution later the same decade, which resulted in a rapid decline in supplies, pushed oil prices up by as much as fourfold at the time.Inflation topped 12% in 1974 with the Fed funds rate rising from 7% to 16% by early 1975, pushing the economy into recession. A stark Fed pivot followed with the Fed funds rate cut to 5.25% by April 1975, causing inflation to return while growth remained stagnate. By the time the second energy crisis came around, accommodative policies were deployed by the Fed in hopes of countering unemployment, but backfired by worsening the pace of price increases - inflation rose from below 5% in early 1976 prior to the second energy crisis resulting from the Iranian Revolution, to 7% by 1979. The Federal Funds Rate was pushed from 6.9% to 10% over the same period in hopes of stamping out inflationary pressure without \"stifling fragile economic growth\" at the time, but to no avail, which led to an extended period of stagflation instead and pushed the economy into recession again.Timeline of quantitative tightening. The so-called \"stop-go policy\" during the 1970s came to an end when Paul Volcker took office as Fed Chair in 1979. Volcker made quelling inflation a priority, \"even if it came at the detriment of short-term employment\". To some extent, this is similar to Fed Chair Powell's commitment to arresting decades-high inflation \"even if doing so risks an economic downturn\".Inflation had already entered double-digits at 11% when Volcker became Fed Chair, while America's jobless rate was inching close to 6% near the end of the 1970s. Fed rate hikes continued, pushing the economy into deep recession by 1982 with the unemployment rate reaching 11%. Over a three-year span, the Volker-led Fed pushed its benchmark rate as high as 20% and stayed in the double-digit range until inflation had fallen to 5% by late 1982. The Fed pivoted then with rates declining to single-digits, alleviating unemployment from the peak of 11% to 8% by 1983.S&P 500 Bottom. The S&P 500 traded at single-digit(7.4x to 9.0x) estimated earnings when Volcker led an aggressive quantitative tightening cycle, which was reflective of the lower value of future cash flows. The market subsequently recovered when it became structurally clear that double-digit inflation was put away for good in the latter half of the 1980s.Policy mistakes. The stop-go monetary policy implemented in the 1970s has been largely viewed as a policy mistake today:In the 1970s, the Fed pursued what economists would call \"stop-go\" monetary policy, which alternated between fighting high unemployment and high inflation. During the \"go\" periods, the Fed lowered interest rates to loosen the money supply and target lower unemployment. During the \"stop\" periods, when inflation mounted, the Fed would raise interest rates to reduce inflationary pressure.Source:Federal Reserve HistoryThe on-and-off tightening eventually let inflation and unemployment run loose through the decade. Today, Fed Chair Powell looks to be taking a page from the 1970s on managing risks of runaway inflation, cautioning against a premature loosening of monetary policies even if economic recession is becoming a certain possibility.We are not trying to provoke, and I don't think we will need to provoke, a recession,\" Powell said at a hearing before the U.S. Senate Banking Committee, although he acknowledged that a recession was \"certainly a possibility\" and events in the last few months around the world had made it more difficult to reduce inflation without causing oneSource:ReutersGreenspan Tightening 1999 to 2000Context. The Federal Reserve had resorted to monetary easing in 1998 as a pre-emptive measure to shore up U.S. growth\"in the face of economic turmoil overseas\" at the time, even though unemployment was at a historical low rate of 4.5%. But by 1999, it was clear the U.S. economy was booming, exhibiting a combination of robust consumer demand and job market, while inflation remained in check. This led the Fed to reverse courseunder Alan Greenspan leadership, and aboard a rate hike cycle that consisted of a 175 bps increases in 1999 from 4.75% to 6.5% by mid-2000.Timeline of quantitative tightening. The 1999 tightening cycle was largely viewed as the Fed's intention to \"protect consumers and financial markets from something it has yet to see - a substantial rise in inflationary pressures\". Inflation was largely flat at the time, while GDP growth almos thalved from 4.3% in the first quarter to 2.3% in the second quarter at the time.By mid-2000, the Fed funds rate had reached 6.5%. Coinciding with the dotcom bubble burst that led to severe market instability, fears that continued tightening would slow the U.S. economy into recession had escalated. A Fed pivot ensued with rates cutting back to the 3% range, followed by further reductions in 2001 after the 9-11 World Trade Center terrorist attack that took the Fed funds rate to the 1% range.S&P 500 Bottom. Over the course of the Greenspan-led \"flip-flop on interest rates\" between 1999 and 2001, stocks actually sold off even when the Fed pivoted to monetary easing. The selloff continued into late 2002 to levels not seen since 1998.Market instability was marked by a combination of lofty valuations in internet stocks that fell to shambles after a slew of fraudulent reporting (cue Enron) and bankruptcies surfaced, underscoring rapid erosion of investors' confidence. The 9-11 terrorist attack also escalated uncertainties over the U.S. economic outlook at the time, adding pressure to the market downturn at the time. The S&P 500 bottomed by late 2002, trading at double-digit (~30x) estimated earnings - a stark contrast to observations in the 1980s - which was consistent with record-low borrowing costs at the time.Policy mistakes. The low interest rates embraced by Greenspan to arrest market instability and declines was largely known as the \"Greenspan put\", which is viewed today as a key factor that led the run-up to the 2008 housing market collapse. The Greenspan put instilled a mentality that the Fed would restore market stability in the event of declines - essentially, moral hazard - which caused \"excessive risk-taking in stock markets\". This eventually led to high-flying valuations, particularly in internet stocks, that crashed in the 2000s. Similar happened again when financial markets collapsed in 2008.The \"Great Recession\" of 2007 to 2009 and the 2008 Financial CrisisContext. Rate hikes resumed under Greenspan's leadership in 2004 when GDP growth was pushing 4% while inflation was at 2.7% and unemployment at 5.4%, showing signs of an overheating economy. Interest rates rose from 1.0% to 5.25% over the course of 17 incremental hikes between 2004 and 2006, when inflation surpassed 3%.By 2007, GDP growth had fallen to 2%, and deteriorated rapidly to 0.1% the following year with unemployment surpassing 7% and inflation pushing 4%. The U.S. economy had effectively entered recession at the time, with unemployment reaching 10% by late 2009 fuelled by the housing bubble burst in 2008 (i.e. 2008 financial crisis). The S&P 500 fell 57% over the same period, wiping out close to$15 trillion in American's net worth.Timeline of quantitative tightening. The 2004 to 2006 tightening cycle peaked with the Fed funds rate at 5.25%, but was insufficient in stamping out inflation and keeping unemployment at bay. This effectively drove the U.S. economy into recession by 2007, with a combination of fiscal and monetary policy easing implemented under the leadership of then-president George W. Bush and then-Fed-Chair Ben Bernanke with aims of shoring up the economy. The 2008 financial crisis ensuing from the housing bubble burst that left \"trillions of dollars of worthless investments in subprime mortgages\" also compounded pains.By the end of 2008, the Fed funds rate had already been cut to the0% to 0.25%range to stem the economy from unravelling further. The FOMC had intended to keep the Fed funds rate \"at exceptionally low levels for some time and then for an extended period\" at the time, and the near-zero range eventually held until 2015. Monetary policy under Bernanke's leadership was focused on the \"use [of the FOMC's] policy statement to provide forward guidance for the federal funds rate\", which helped manage market's understanding of economic and financial conditions during the Great Recession.The Fed also implemented \"large scale asset purchase\" (\"LSAP\") programs at the time to ensure \"longer-term public and private borrowing rates\" were kept at low levels in alignment with the near-zero Fed funds rate. This included the Fed's buyback of mortgage-backed securities (\"MBS\") and Treasuries at the time to \"reduce the cost and increase the availability of credit for home purchases\" - a detrimental corner of the market during the financial crisis. The LSAP program is also similar to the MBS and Treasury buybacks implemented by the Fed at the onset of the COVID pandemic in2020to \"help ensure chaotic markets function properly [and] ensure credit flows to corporations as well as state and local governments\".S&P 500 Bottom. The S&P 500 fell 57% between October 2007 and March 2009, though the economy remained weak with unemployment still on the run towards 9.5% in June 2009 before peaking at 10% in October 2009. The index was trading at more than 70x estimated earnings at its trough in March 2009, which was consistent with the hit on corporate fundamental performance across the board, as well as record-low borrowing costs at the 0% to 0.25% range. The valuation multiple moderated to the 20x-range of forward earnings by 2010 as corporate fundamentals started to recover, while the Fed funds rate was held steady at the near-zero range.Policy mistakes. As discussed in the earlier section, the housing bubble burst that also contributed to the Global Recession from 2007 to 2009 was likely partially driven by market moral hazard instilled by the Greenspan put. Recall that Bernanke also sought to rapid rate cuts between 2007 and 2008 in response to deteriorating macro conditions and the sliding market, adopting a similar strategy as Greenspan that \"may have been a catalyst contributing to the conditions of the 2008 financial crisis\".However, Bernanke's subsequent adherence to low interest rates for an extended period, as well as bank bailouts that cost as much as$700 billion, and other monetary easing policies such as the LSAP program ($1.75 trillion) was key to the long, yet stable market recovery in the years that followed.The COVID PandemicContext. Fed rate hikes resumed in 2015 under Fed Chair Janet Yellen after economic growth showed an extended period of stabilization in the 2% range, while inflation was flat with unemployment at 5%. The hikes continued even after Jerome Powell took over as Fed Chair in 2018 until the Fed funds rate reached 2.5% by the end of the same year.Timeline of quantitative tightening. The Federal Reserve resumed monetary policy tightening in 2015 upon evidence of \"improvement in the labor market [and reasonable confidence] that inflation would move back to its 2% objective over the medium term\". As mentioned in the earlier section, unemployment had fallen to 5% in 2015 from the peak of 10% during late 2009. The intention was to pursue rate hikes while also maintaining an accommodative policy stance to \"support further improvement in labor market conditions and a return to 2% inflation\".The Fed pivoted to rate cuts by the summer of 2019 after the global equity market lost close to $7 trillion of its value by the end of 2018. However, GDP maintained at the 2%-range at the time, while unemployment was at 3.5% and inflation inched up to 1.9%, which stoked concerns of an eventual economic downturn. Rates were cut from the peak of 2.5% in late 2018 to 1.75% by late 2019. Rapid easing took place with rates sliding to the 0% to 0.25% range at the onset of the COVID pandemic in March 2020.S&P 500 Bottom. More than $7 trillion in global market value was lost in 2018, with the S&P 500 giving up close to 10% of its value (or almost 18% from the 2018 peak in September) before finding bottom near year-end. The index was trading at about 20x forward earnings at the time, which was consistent with rising, yet still low, interest rates at the time, relative to past financial crises.Policy mistakes. Market critics have viewed the 2015 rate hike cycle as \"premature\", given inflation was still struggling to climb back towards the 2% Fed target at the time. It was not until 2018 when inflation topped 2%, which also coincided with market's negative reaction to rising borrowing costs following the preceding years of a near-zero Fed funds rate.What Exactly is Valuation Composed of?Before drawing on past economic cycles to gauge forward expectations, we turn to basic valuation theory to understand the interaction between key driving factors, including interest rates, inflation, unemployment and GDP. Most of the time, when we think of valuation, we think of the fundamental leg (e.g. growth, earnings, cash flows, etc.) and the valuation multiple (which is influenced by cost of capital / discount rate). But in economic theory, valuation can also be split into the following two components: steady-state firm value + future value creation.Steady-State Firm ValueThe steady-state value is defined as the value of the firm when \"NOPAT (net operating profit after tax) is sustainable indefinitely and incremental investments will neither add, nor subtract, value\". This does not necessarily mean the point at which a company grows at 0% forever, but rather the point of growth that stays constant regardless of whether incremental investments are made (i.e. it could be a steady-state perpetual growth or declining rate).Steady-State Value Formula (Valuation Theory)One way to depict steady-state value is via the steady-state firm value P/E ratio, which is defined as 1 divided by cost of capital:A company can continue to grow earnings as it invests at the cost of capital. It will just fail to create value, and hence should trade at its steady-state worth. We can readily translate from the steady-state value to a steady-state price-earnings multiple, which is the reciprocal of the cost of [capital].Source:Credit SuisseThe intuition is to find the valuation multiple (i.e. P/E ratio, in this case) reflective of the point at which continued investments at the cost of capital will continue to drive earnings growth, but not necessarily yield any incremental value creation, and hence stay at a steady-state of \"1\".To gauge where the market's steady-state value might be headed, we turn to key driving factor, cost of capital. Cost of capital is essentially the borrowing cost, which can be benchmarked against the Fed funds rate. Based on an understanding of past economic cycles, the Federal Reserve today is likely leaning towards the Volcker era, with a sprinkle of Bernanke.What this means is that the Fed's commitment to taming inflation - even if it comes at the cost of some near-term economic pain - will eventually lead to more rate hikes in coming months, especially as inflation today remains far from the 2% target. This is consistent with the growing drumbeat of calls by Fed officials to raise rates into \"restrictive territory\" and holding it there until there is structural evidence inflation is back on track towards the committee's target range. To prevent further policy mistakes (we say \"further\" since the whole \"transitory inflation\" narrative last year obviously did not work out), responding to recent signs of slowing demand with a Fed pivot is essentially off the table, as implementing such as policy would likely be begging for a repeat of the \"stop-go\" disaster in the 1970s before Volcker. At best, the Fed will likely stick to what it has been doing at recent meetings - setting clean and clear forward expectations for markets like Bernanke had. In today's case, this means there will be more tightening in financial conditions that could potentially push the terminal rate higher, while keeping in mind of the \"effects of lags in monetary policy\" and start considering a moderation in the pace of coming rate hikes.Traders are largely expecting a moderation in the pace of rate hikes from the jumbo 75 bps seen over the summer and fall, to a half-point increase at the coming December meeting, which would bring the Fed funds rate range from the current 3.75% to 4%, to 4.25% to 4.5%. The terminal rate is expected to reach 5% to 5.25%based on current prices on 1H23 Fed swaps. Substituting the estimated terminal rate of about 5% plus an additional percentage point to account for forward market risk premium (reflective of difference between 1-year Treasury yield of about 4.75% today and the current Fed funds rate range of 3.75% and 4%) as proxy for market cost of capital in gauging the steady-state firm value P/E ratio would yield about 17x. The S&P 500, which can be viewed as a proxy for the weighted average of its constituents' respective valuations, currently trades at about 20x estimated earnings. If market steady-state firm value is to be adjusted as a result of continued Fed policy tightening, the S&P 500 could potentially move another leg lower by as much as 15% between now and when the Fed funds rate peaks in the current tightening cycle, which is estimated to occur by mid-2023.But there are a myriad of other factors that could impact where the so-called steady-state firm value is headed as Fed tightening continues over coming months, including economic growth and investor sentiment on a broader basis. This is consistent with the observation discussed in earlier sections that market bottomed in March 2009 even though the economy continued to deteriorate with unemployment hitting trough at 10% seven months later in October 2009. This could both be reflective of the fact that market is forward looking (or priced at estimated earnings and forward macro expectations) and/or the lag effect in which monetary policy works, among other factors. What this essentially means is that while rate hikes are expected to peak by mid-2023, it does not necessarily mean that is also when the market will bottom. But nonetheless, even if it is almost impossible to gauge the exact timing, it is more likely that not that the market is skewed towards further downside risks through the first quarter of 2023 at the minimum.In addition to the steady-state P/E ratio method, the Gordon growth model is another way to gauge steady-state firm value.Gordon Growth Model (Valuation Theory)The key assumption here other than cost of capital is GDP growth. GDP growth is typically used as a key benchmark to gauge the implied perpetual growth of a company, with addition consideration of the maturity of its industry as well as other company-specific factors such as market leadership, competitive advantages, and/or market share:Companies operating in industries that are higher growth in nature are typically valued at a perpetual growth rate closer to or more than GDP, given their greater contributions to economic growth. Alternatively, companies operating in lower growth and/or mature industries are typically allocated a lower perpetual growth rate.Source: \"Shorting Tesla: Bridging Lofty Valuations to Economics\"As discussed in the earlier section, demand is likely to show a marked slowdown in coming months as consumer purchasing power wanes, especially if unemployment worsens, which will lead to further deteriorating in economic growth. Even though the labor market has remained largely resilient despite the recent slew of high-paid tech layoffs (accounts foronly ~2%of total U.S. employment), consumer weakness is expected to tame demand further and eventually hit corporate earnings, potentially resulting in more cost-driven job cuts. This is further corroborated by the gradual uptick in recent jobless claimsas well as jobless rate to \"3.7%from a more than five-decade low\". This means GDP is likely to slow as interest rates increase, widening the spread between cost of capital and growth in the denominator of the Gordon growth model, and inadvertently, diminishing the steady-state firm value.Future Value Creation PremiumThe future value creation premium accounts for the incremental value that additional investments at the cost of capital would earn (i.e. return on capital), and also takes into consideration the time period in which this value-creating opportunity would last.Future Value Creation Formula (Valuation Theory)This is essentially a premium to the steady-state firm value, and explains the lofty valuations relative to broader markets observed in certain stocks, such as Apple(AAPL), Tesla(TSLA) and Snowflake(SNOW), today. Admittedly, these companies have either or all of outperforming balance sheets, profit margins, and/or growth prospects relative to peers, but not all are valued in proportion to the mean growth-valuation ratio observed among their respective peer groups.In addition to the \"competitive advantage period\", which measures the anticipated time period in which the added value-creating opportunity would last, key assumptions in deriving future value creation premium is return on capital and cost of capital. And return on capital can be substituted by anticipated economic expansion, or GDP growth - when the economy is good, growth and profit margins will likely perform better, and vice versa. But as discussed in the earlier section, GDP growth is likely skewed to the downside within the foreseeable future as demand continues to slow and profit margins get squeezed as a result of high input costs, and near-term requirements for more-than-usual promotional offers to offload excess product inventories.Paired with the anticipation for greater increases to the cost of capital as a result of Fed hawkishness that will more likely than not continue for a while longer, the cost-return spread in the numerator of the future value creation component of valuation is poised to narrow. And as cost of capital continues to increase, the denominator will also expand, hence diminishing the future value creation component of broader market valuations, which corroborates the expectation for more downside potential within the near-term.Implications for the S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100 - Is the Bottom Near?Based on valuation theory, and the anticipation for sustained hawkish Fed sentiment drawn from historical observations, the broader market is likely to see further volatility ahead as valuations adjust to rising rates and declining demand. While the timing at which markets will bottom remains uncertain, we are of the view that company fundamentals are only just starting to feel the impact of consumer weakness, which points to further value erosion through 1H23.Specifically, consumer spending has remained resilient through the first half of 2022 despite deteriorating sentiment due to surging inflation and rising borrowing costs. But headed into the first half of the fourth quarter, declining business activity and warnings of a marked slowdown among consumer-centric industries such as retail underscore that waning consumer sentiment is now really materializing into real weakness. This is further supported by the consistent drop in American household savings and rise in credit card debt, among other observations, discussed earlier on in this analysis.And a specific note to the tech-heavy Nasdaq 100 (NASDAQ: QQQ/NDX), constituents' valuations are likely to be hit harder compared to those in the S&P 500 given their cash flows are further out (with some still in pre-revenue phase and/or unprofitable) from realization and subject to a heavier discount as costs of capital increase. The index also consists of constituents with some of the biggest valuation premiums given lofty forward growth expectations previously priced in that may not materialize as expected within the foreseeable future, thus pointing to greater vulnerability to downside risks ahead.And given risks of further macro deterioration are now skewed higher with recent economic data pointing to a moderation in the labor market, while monetary policy tightening continues to flow through different corners of the economy, the ensuing rise in the likelihood of a recession will likely take the market a leg lower through the first half of 2023, even if we start to see structural easing in price 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12:10","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Beyond the Crypto Crash, a Big Squeeze Jolts Stock Markets Anew","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1178738535","media":"Bloomberg","summary":"Hedge funds cover short wagers at the fastest rate since 2021Thinly positioned investors play catch-","content":"<div>\n<p>Hedge funds cover short wagers at the fastest rate since 2021Thinly positioned investors play catch-up via call optionsBeing glued to crypto news this week meant missing adventures in regular markets ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2022-11-18/beyond-the-crypto-crash-a-big-squeeze-jolts-stock-markets-anew?srnd=markets-vp\">Source Link</a>\n\n</div>\n","source":"lsy1584095487587","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Beyond the Crypto Crash, a Big Squeeze Jolts Stock Markets Anew</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ 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hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nBeyond the Crypto Crash, a Big Squeeze Jolts Stock Markets Anew\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2022-11-20 12:10 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2022-11-18/beyond-the-crypto-crash-a-big-squeeze-jolts-stock-markets-anew?srnd=markets-vp><strong>Bloomberg</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>Hedge funds cover short wagers at the fastest rate since 2021Thinly positioned investors play catch-up via call optionsBeing glued to crypto news this week meant missing adventures in regular markets ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2022-11-18/beyond-the-crypto-crash-a-big-squeeze-jolts-stock-markets-anew?srnd=markets-vp\">Source Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"SPY":"标普500ETF","QQQ":"纳指100ETF"},"source_url":"https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2022-11-18/beyond-the-crypto-crash-a-big-squeeze-jolts-stock-markets-anew?srnd=markets-vp","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1178738535","content_text":"Hedge funds cover short wagers at the fastest rate since 2021Thinly positioned investors play catch-up via call optionsBeing glued to crypto news this week meant missing adventures in regular markets that while lacking the same high drama, made up for it in terms of money at stake.In case you missed it, stock and bond traders spent the last five days still caught in the thrall of an event that may be hard to recall for people mesmerized by the FTX.com collapse: Nov. 10’s inflation report, which ignited a short squeeze among traders expecting a worse number. Reverberations continued to be felt in terms of positioning, trading in derivatives and probably also in wrongly prepared portfolios.As usual in 2022, the biggest venue of impact was the US stock options market, where trading volumes are smashing records as investors of all stripes rush into short-dated contracts to catch up. It’s creating snags for what had been billed as the great inflation trade, with the mighty dollar losing luster and technology shares reclaiming their long-lost leadership, at least briefly.The recalibration was prompted when a soft print on consumer prices triggered a reset of the perceived path for Federal Reserve monetary policy. Exacerbating it are money managers who had cut equity exposure to the bone during the bear market and found themselves caught out. With almost everyone sitting on the same side of the trade and exiting at once, an already-turbulent market got weirder.“Crypto is just part of a broader mosaic of an almost dysfunctional market,” Doug Fincher, hedge fund manager of Ionic Capital Management, said by phone. “Not to be cynical, but look at CPI last Thursday. It was two basis points better than expected, and the market exploded. There’s a massive amount of technical factor rotation. There’s just a lot of crosscurrents in a really volatile, strange market.”The trend abated some during the week, with the S&P 500 closing lower over the period. Short-term Treasury yields regained some ground and the dollar edged higher as Fed officials reiterated their intention to keep raising rates.Still, whether inflation has peaked is up for debate. There won’t be another reading for more than three weeks, and investors and policy makers alike have misjudged price trends since the pandemic hit. With data mostly coming in ahead of expectations this year, everyone from currency traders to bond investors were bracing for another big inflation number last week.When it didn’t pan out, a cascade of unwinding ensued. The dollar, darling asset of the inflation trade, is losing momentum. Down more than 4% in November, the US currency is poised for its worst month in two years. Two-year Treasuries, where large speculators built up record short positions before the CPI report, saw a rally that pushed yields down 25 basis points when it was released, the most in more than a decade.Tech stocks, among the biggest casualties during the Fed’s aggressive inflation-fighting campaign, got a respite. Up more than 9% since the day before the CPI data, the industry has beaten all other major groups in the S&P 500, in a partial reversal of dismal returns earlier this year.“These things are certainly bound to happen at around key critical junctures in economic and monetary policy, which is where we’re at -- the Fed shifting from raising rates toward more of a deceleration in terms of hikes,” said Layla Royer, a senior equity derivatives salesperson at Citadel Securities. “It is a significant shift.”A basket of the most-shorted stocks soared 18% over the four days through Tuesday, dealing a fresh blow to hedge funds who boosted bearish wagers during a 10-month rout and turning them into forced buyers. Their total short covering over the stretch hit levels not seen since the retail-driven squeeze in January 2021, data compiled by JPMorgan Chase & Co.’s prime broker show.For a third time this year, the S&P 500 mounted a recovery of more than 10%. Such counter-trend rallies have spurred demand for bullish call options from those who have been defensively positioned in the market. As a result, the index’s skew -- the relative cost of puts versus calls -- this month fell to the lowest level in more than a decade.“Market screams back up. You’re at risk of losing your job because you’re going to underperform everybody,” said Dennis Davitt, founder of Millbank Dartmoor Portsmouth LLC, an investment firm that specializes in volatility strategies. “So the remedy for that is just by turning some of your equities into cash and then buying upside calls as a stock replacement.”The Fed-induced market gyrations are encouraging investors to go all-in on options to place bullish and bearish bets alike. About 46 million contracts have changed hands each day in November, on course for the busiest month on record, data compiled by Bloomberg show.Helping drive the boom is the frenzy trading in derivatives maturing within 24 hours. Such contracts made up a whopping 44% of S&P 500 options volume in the past month, according to an estimate by Goldman Sachs Group Inc.For now, the fireworks following the CPI shock appeared to be dying down. The S&P 500 has moved less than 1% for six straight sessions on a closing basis, the longest stretch of calm since January.To Mike Bailey, director of research at FBB Capital Partners, the tranquility may not last. For one, the cross-asset rally has contributed to easing financial conditions that’s working against Fed Chair Jerome Powell’s goal to slow the economy.“We may get some buyer’s remorse over the next few weeks as investors fret over a potentially hot jobs number and any whiff of hawkishness from Powell and the Fed,” said Bailey. “Investors are coming up for air after a nice run since mid-October. 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market headlines, business news, financials and earnings ","home_visible":1,"media_name":"Tiger Newspress","id":"1079075236","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba"},"pubTimestamp":1667573626,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1136620356?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2022-11-04 22:53","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Semiconductor Stocks Gained in Morning Trading","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1136620356","media":"Tiger Newspress","summary":"Semiconductor stocks jumped in morning trading. Micron, Applied Materials, ASML rose over 5%; Nvidia","content":"<html><head></head><body><p>Semiconductor stocks jumped in morning trading. Micron, Applied Materials, ASML rose over 5%; Nvidia, Broadcom rose over 4%.<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9c469a66a8acb211549bb975ad1e1ed0\" tg-width=\"487\" tg-height=\"775\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p></body></html>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Semiconductor Stocks Gained in Morning Trading</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nSemiconductor Stocks Gained in Morning Trading\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/1079075236\">\n\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">Tiger Newspress </p>\n<p class=\"h-time\">2022-11-04 22:53</p>\n</div>\n\n</a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<html><head></head><body><p>Semiconductor stocks jumped in morning trading. Micron, Applied Materials, ASML rose over 5%; Nvidia, Broadcom rose over 4%.<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9c469a66a8acb211549bb975ad1e1ed0\" tg-width=\"487\" tg-height=\"775\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p></body></html>\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"NVDA":"英伟达","MU":"美光科技"},"source_url":"","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1136620356","content_text":"Semiconductor stocks jumped in morning trading. Micron, Applied Materials, ASML rose over 5%; Nvidia, Broadcom rose over 4%.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"NVDA":0.9,"MU":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1379,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9985280066,"gmtCreate":1667399425155,"gmtModify":1676537911588,"author":{"id":"3581507356092469","authorId":"3581507356092469","name":"ZarNaing","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/79d952595eebae7246a8cf6ffc0054af","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3581507356092469","idStr":"3581507356092469"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/GRAB\">$Grab Holdings(GRAB)$</a><v-v data-views=\"1\"></v-v>","listText":"<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/GRAB\">$Grab Holdings(GRAB)$</a><v-v data-views=\"1\"></v-v>","text":"$Grab Holdings(GRAB)$","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9985280066","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":921,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0}],"hots":[{"id":9009079747,"gmtCreate":1640399344577,"gmtModify":1676533519465,"author":{"id":"3581507356092469","authorId":"3581507356092469","name":"ZarNaing","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/79d952595eebae7246a8cf6ffc0054af","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3581507356092469","idStr":"3581507356092469"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/TIGR\">$Tiger Brokers(TIGR)$</a>Please revive&nbsp;","listText":"<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/TIGR\">$Tiger Brokers(TIGR)$</a>Please revive&nbsp;","text":"$Tiger Brokers(TIGR)$Please revive","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":7,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9009079747","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1480,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9961607549,"gmtCreate":1668923070482,"gmtModify":1676538129169,"author":{"id":"3581507356092469","authorId":"3581507356092469","name":"ZarNaing","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/79d952595eebae7246a8cf6ffc0054af","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3581507356092469","idStr":"3581507356092469"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Thanks","listText":"Thanks","text":"Thanks","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":7,"commentSize":2,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9961607549","repostId":"1178738535","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1178738535","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1668917402,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1178738535?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2022-11-20 12:10","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Beyond the Crypto Crash, a Big Squeeze Jolts Stock Markets Anew","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1178738535","media":"Bloomberg","summary":"Hedge funds cover short wagers at the fastest rate since 2021Thinly positioned investors play catch-","content":"<div>\n<p>Hedge funds cover short wagers at the fastest rate since 2021Thinly positioned investors play catch-up via call optionsBeing glued to crypto news this week meant missing adventures in regular markets ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2022-11-18/beyond-the-crypto-crash-a-big-squeeze-jolts-stock-markets-anew?srnd=markets-vp\">Source Link</a>\n\n</div>\n","source":"lsy1584095487587","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Beyond the Crypto Crash, a Big Squeeze Jolts Stock Markets Anew</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ 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hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nBeyond the Crypto Crash, a Big Squeeze Jolts Stock Markets Anew\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2022-11-20 12:10 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2022-11-18/beyond-the-crypto-crash-a-big-squeeze-jolts-stock-markets-anew?srnd=markets-vp><strong>Bloomberg</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>Hedge funds cover short wagers at the fastest rate since 2021Thinly positioned investors play catch-up via call optionsBeing glued to crypto news this week meant missing adventures in regular markets ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2022-11-18/beyond-the-crypto-crash-a-big-squeeze-jolts-stock-markets-anew?srnd=markets-vp\">Source Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"SPY":"标普500ETF","QQQ":"纳指100ETF"},"source_url":"https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2022-11-18/beyond-the-crypto-crash-a-big-squeeze-jolts-stock-markets-anew?srnd=markets-vp","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1178738535","content_text":"Hedge funds cover short wagers at the fastest rate since 2021Thinly positioned investors play catch-up via call optionsBeing glued to crypto news this week meant missing adventures in regular markets that while lacking the same high drama, made up for it in terms of money at stake.In case you missed it, stock and bond traders spent the last five days still caught in the thrall of an event that may be hard to recall for people mesmerized by the FTX.com collapse: Nov. 10’s inflation report, which ignited a short squeeze among traders expecting a worse number. Reverberations continued to be felt in terms of positioning, trading in derivatives and probably also in wrongly prepared portfolios.As usual in 2022, the biggest venue of impact was the US stock options market, where trading volumes are smashing records as investors of all stripes rush into short-dated contracts to catch up. It’s creating snags for what had been billed as the great inflation trade, with the mighty dollar losing luster and technology shares reclaiming their long-lost leadership, at least briefly.The recalibration was prompted when a soft print on consumer prices triggered a reset of the perceived path for Federal Reserve monetary policy. Exacerbating it are money managers who had cut equity exposure to the bone during the bear market and found themselves caught out. With almost everyone sitting on the same side of the trade and exiting at once, an already-turbulent market got weirder.“Crypto is just part of a broader mosaic of an almost dysfunctional market,” Doug Fincher, hedge fund manager of Ionic Capital Management, said by phone. “Not to be cynical, but look at CPI last Thursday. It was two basis points better than expected, and the market exploded. There’s a massive amount of technical factor rotation. There’s just a lot of crosscurrents in a really volatile, strange market.”The trend abated some during the week, with the S&P 500 closing lower over the period. Short-term Treasury yields regained some ground and the dollar edged higher as Fed officials reiterated their intention to keep raising rates.Still, whether inflation has peaked is up for debate. There won’t be another reading for more than three weeks, and investors and policy makers alike have misjudged price trends since the pandemic hit. With data mostly coming in ahead of expectations this year, everyone from currency traders to bond investors were bracing for another big inflation number last week.When it didn’t pan out, a cascade of unwinding ensued. The dollar, darling asset of the inflation trade, is losing momentum. Down more than 4% in November, the US currency is poised for its worst month in two years. Two-year Treasuries, where large speculators built up record short positions before the CPI report, saw a rally that pushed yields down 25 basis points when it was released, the most in more than a decade.Tech stocks, among the biggest casualties during the Fed’s aggressive inflation-fighting campaign, got a respite. Up more than 9% since the day before the CPI data, the industry has beaten all other major groups in the S&P 500, in a partial reversal of dismal returns earlier this year.“These things are certainly bound to happen at around key critical junctures in economic and monetary policy, which is where we’re at -- the Fed shifting from raising rates toward more of a deceleration in terms of hikes,” said Layla Royer, a senior equity derivatives salesperson at Citadel Securities. “It is a significant shift.”A basket of the most-shorted stocks soared 18% over the four days through Tuesday, dealing a fresh blow to hedge funds who boosted bearish wagers during a 10-month rout and turning them into forced buyers. Their total short covering over the stretch hit levels not seen since the retail-driven squeeze in January 2021, data compiled by JPMorgan Chase & Co.’s prime broker show.For a third time this year, the S&P 500 mounted a recovery of more than 10%. Such counter-trend rallies have spurred demand for bullish call options from those who have been defensively positioned in the market. As a result, the index’s skew -- the relative cost of puts versus calls -- this month fell to the lowest level in more than a decade.“Market screams back up. You’re at risk of losing your job because you’re going to underperform everybody,” said Dennis Davitt, founder of Millbank Dartmoor Portsmouth LLC, an investment firm that specializes in volatility strategies. “So the remedy for that is just by turning some of your equities into cash and then buying upside calls as a stock replacement.”The Fed-induced market gyrations are encouraging investors to go all-in on options to place bullish and bearish bets alike. About 46 million contracts have changed hands each day in November, on course for the busiest month on record, data compiled by Bloomberg show.Helping drive the boom is the frenzy trading in derivatives maturing within 24 hours. Such contracts made up a whopping 44% of S&P 500 options volume in the past month, according to an estimate by Goldman Sachs Group Inc.For now, the fireworks following the CPI shock appeared to be dying down. The S&P 500 has moved less than 1% for six straight sessions on a closing basis, the longest stretch of calm since January.To Mike Bailey, director of research at FBB Capital Partners, the tranquility may not last. For one, the cross-asset rally has contributed to easing financial conditions that’s working against Fed Chair Jerome Powell’s goal to slow the economy.“We may get some buyer’s remorse over the next few weeks as investors fret over a potentially hot jobs number and any whiff of hawkishness from Powell and the Fed,” said Bailey. “Investors are coming up for air after a nice run since mid-October. The next question is, are we pricing in too much good news?”","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"SPY":0.9,"QQQ":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":3094,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9984149707,"gmtCreate":1667575059909,"gmtModify":1676537939998,"author":{"id":"3581507356092469","authorId":"3581507356092469","name":"ZarNaing","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/79d952595eebae7246a8cf6ffc0054af","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3581507356092469","idStr":"3581507356092469"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Thanka","listText":"Thanka","text":"Thanka","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":5,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9984149707","repostId":"1136620356","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1136620356","kind":"news","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"Providing stock market headlines, business news, financials and 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content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Semiconductor Stocks Gained in Morning Trading</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; 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href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/1079075236\">\n\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">Tiger Newspress </p>\n<p class=\"h-time\">2022-11-04 22:53</p>\n</div>\n\n</a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<html><head></head><body><p>Semiconductor stocks jumped in morning trading. Micron, Applied Materials, ASML rose over 5%; Nvidia, Broadcom rose over 4%.<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9c469a66a8acb211549bb975ad1e1ed0\" tg-width=\"487\" tg-height=\"775\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p></body></html>\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"NVDA":"英伟达","MU":"美光科技"},"source_url":"","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1136620356","content_text":"Semiconductor stocks jumped in morning trading. Micron, Applied Materials, ASML rose over 5%; Nvidia, Broadcom rose over 4%.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"NVDA":0.9,"MU":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1379,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9963377911,"gmtCreate":1668609240333,"gmtModify":1676538084149,"author":{"id":"3581507356092469","authorId":"3581507356092469","name":"ZarNaing","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/79d952595eebae7246a8cf6ffc0054af","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3581507356092469","idStr":"3581507356092469"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/PYPL\">$PayPal(PYPL)$&nbsp;</a><v-v data-views=\"1\"></v-v>","listText":"<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/PYPL\">$PayPal(PYPL)$&nbsp;</a><v-v data-views=\"1\"></v-v>","text":"$PayPal(PYPL)$","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":2,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9963377911","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1651,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9966815085,"gmtCreate":1669480485548,"gmtModify":1676538200769,"author":{"id":"3581507356092469","authorId":"3581507356092469","name":"ZarNaing","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/79d952595eebae7246a8cf6ffc0054af","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3581507356092469","idStr":"3581507356092469"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Thanks","listText":"Thanks","text":"Thanks","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9966815085","repostId":"1110767793","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1110767793","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1669522613,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1110767793?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2022-11-27 12:16","market":"other","language":"en","title":"Here's Why We Think SPY And QQQ Risks Are Skewed To The Downside","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1110767793","media":"Seeking Alpha","summary":"SummaryEquities have been on a gradual climb since the beginning of the fourth quarter, with the SPY","content":"<html><head></head><body><p><b>Summary</b></p><ul><li>Equities have been on a gradual climb since the beginning of the fourth quarter, with the SPY up 13% and QQQ up 8% QTD.</li><li>There has also been some cautious optimism among investors on signs of easing inflation and the Fed&#39;s consideration for a moderation in the pace of coming rate hikes.</li><li>However, company fundamentals that were previously resilient are now just starting to show the first signs of cracks, while continued borrowing cost increases will only weigh on valuations further.</li><li>The following deep dive analysis will walk through past economic cycles, valuation theory, and recent economic data to gauge where Fed policy might be headed and the related implications on SPY and QQQ valuations as we head into the new year.</li></ul><p>The S&amp;P 500 (NYSEARCA: SPY/SP500) has gradually climbed more than 12% since the fourth quarter began, and closed at a two-month high during Wednesday&#39;s (November 23) session after a flurry of economic data released in recent weeks pointed to easing price pressures and market slowdown that could harbinger a dovish Fed policy stance over coming months. October CPI and PPI showed a stronger reduction in prices than expected, while recent data on jobless claims, retail sales, and business activity also pointed to a slowdown in demand, especially for discretionary goods.</p><p>Despite hawkish commentary from Fed officials still, investors are responding positively to remarks that the pace of rate hikes might be moderating from the recent slew of jumbo 75 bps increases. This has compounded market optimism on a potential shift on the Fed&#39;s policy tightening trajectory to a more dovish stance, with investors&#39; now focusing more on a potential slowdown in the pace of coming rate hikes than where the terminal rate might land (i.e. when the Fed might actually pivot).</p><p>But from a valuation and fundamental perspective, continued rate hikes are poised to squeeze multiples further into contraction, while ensuing deteriorating of financial conditions put corporate earnings at risk. With slowing demand, and mounting macroeconomic uncertainties over the Fed&#39;s tightening trajectory, when inflation would peak, and whether a recession is imminently still at large, volatility will likely continue to overpower markets. While it is difficult to gauge when exactly markets might bottom as macro deterioration gains momentum, the following analysis will turn to past tightening cycles and inflation environments, as well as basic valuation theory to explore where the market climate stands today and what to potentially expect over coming months.</p><p><b>Recent Economic Overview</b></p><p>The drumbeat for moderating inflation grew after CPI and PPI figures came in lower than expected. October CPI rose7.7% y/yand 0.4% m/m (core +6.3% y/y, +0.3% m/m), marking the &#34;smallest annual advance since the start of the year&#34; and coming in under economist estimates of 7.9% y/y and 0.6% m/m. U.S. PPI also eased in October, advancing 8% y/y(core +6.7% y/) and 0.2% m/m (core 0% m/m) compared with economist estimates of 8.3% y/y and 0.4% m/m. The back-to-back indication of easing price pressures pushed the S&amp;P 500 higher in early November, as markets saw it as an encouraging sign that the Fed might resort to less aggressive tightening in the months ahead and potentially achieve a soft-landing that could be beneficial to the valuation of risky assets that have been roiled across the board this year.</p><p>But investors were quickly sent back to the sidelines after stronger-than-expectedU.S. retail sales data for October indicated that the economy was still running hot, while Fed officials rushed to warn markets that &#34;inflation remains much too high for comfort&#34; and there is &#34;still a long way to go&#34; on keeping decades-high price increases under control. But a deeper look into the drivers of retail sales increases would suggest that consumer purchasing power is starting to feel the pinch of both rising inflation and interest rates, and the volume of sales is likely deteriorating too since the October figure of 1.3% is not adjusted for inflation.</p><p>As discussed in one of our recent coverages, the biggest driver of October&#39;s retail sales growth was on basic necessities like food and energy. Meanwhile, spending on discretionary goods like consumer electronics and apparel saw a marked decline, indicating that consumer purchasing power is waning on the back of surging inflation and tightening financial conditions:</p><blockquote>Meanwhile, retailers of discretionary goods such as apparel, consumer electronics, and sporting goods saw a sales decline of more than 2% over the same period. The results imply continued weakening in consumer purchasing power as inflationary pressures persist, while retailers of discretionary goods are looking to lure buyers ahead of the holiday shopping season with price cuts and steep discounts in an attempt to clear inventories.</blockquote><blockquote>Source: &#34;2 Retail Stocks to Watch After Retail Sales Rose in October - We are Watching Amazon and Apple&#34;</blockquote><p>The shift in consumer behavior in response to mounting macroeconomic uncertainties ahead is also telling of the impending demand slowdown over the coming months. Consumer credit card debt is fast approaching the pre-pandemic peak of $916 billion as of the end of September, and the continuation of this trend is further corroborated by recent observations by retailer Macy&#39;s (M), which saw its customers &#34;building larger balances on credit cards&#34;. The latest data shows that Americans&#39; credit card debt has increased by 15% y/y, the fastest pace in two decades while card borrowing costs topped 19%, a level not seen in 40 years.</p><p>The impending slowdown in demand and spending is further supported by the recent rise in jobless claims and contraction in business activity. U.S. jobless claims topped 240,000 during the week ended November 19th, topping consensus estimates of 225,000 and up from 17,000 in the prior week. The jump was the highest in months, a potential sign that the labor market might be cooling as a result of recent mass layoffs across big tech, though economists are also cautioning effects of seasonal attrition, which introduces a &#34;great deal of volatility into this data&#34;. The U.S. job market has remained stubbornly resilient despite the Fed&#39;s implementation of aggressive tools to slow the economy this year, with the jobless rate still at a 50-year low of3.7%:</p><blockquote>Tech companies represent about 2% of all employment in the country, said Richardson. That compares with 11% for the leisure and hospitality industry, which is still struggling to hire workers, she added.</blockquote><blockquote>Source:Bloomberg</blockquote><blockquote>The broad takeaway is a job market that&#39;s cooling albeit not very quickly. That lines up with Jerome Powell&#39;s characterization earlier this week, when the Fed chair acknowledged conditions haven&#39;t softened yet in an &#34;obvious&#34; way and said the central bank is eyeing a higher peak interest rate than it was two months ago.</blockquote><blockquote>Source:Bloomberg</blockquote><p>But added softness in business activity indicates that even &#34;some of the more resilient parts of the economy&#34; are undoubtedly showing cracks as a result of the Fed&#39;s aggressive policy stance deployed this year. The S&amp;P Global Flash U.S. Composite PMI, which measures activity across the American private sector, saw a &#34;solid contraction&#34; this month. The index reached the &#34;second lowest level&#34; since the onset of the pandemic and imitates the dire business environment in 2009. Managers reported slowing demand and new orders due to the effects of &#34;rising interest rates, economic uncertainty and the lingering effects of still elevated inflation&#34;. Consistent with commentary gathered in the latest third quarter earnings season, promotional offers are gaining momentum across suppliers, factories and service providers to &#34;help boost flagging sales&#34;, which is poised to weigh on private sector earnings over coming months.</p><p>Although easing inflationary pressures is a welcomed sight, recent data points to rapid unravelling of an economy that is likely headed towards recession. Minutes from the FOMC meeting in November indicated that policymakers are now seeing a 50/50 risk of recession within the next year, compared with a more aggressive forecast of65%on Wall Street and as much as100%by a Bloomberg Economics model.</p><p><b>What the Fed Says</b></p><p>Amidst the paradox between recent market optimism and a rapidly deteriorating macro backdrop, the Federal Reserve is sticking to its hawkish policy stance in hopes of preventing an unravelling of the work done to date to quell inflation. Recall Fed Chair Jerome Powell&#39;s stern remarks on managing market expectations during the post-meeting conference in November:</p><blockquote>CHRISTOPHER RUGABER. Great, and just a quick follow. It looks like stock and bond markets are reacting positively to your announcement so far. Is that something you wanted to see? Is that a problem or what-how that might affect your future policy to see this positive reaction?</blockquote><blockquote>CHAIR POWELL. We&#39;re not targeting any one or two particular things. Our message should be-what I&#39;m trying to do is make sure that our message is clear, which is that we think we have a ways to go, we have some ground to cover with interest rates before we get to, before we get to that level of interest rates that we think is sufficiently restrictive…If you look at the-I have a table of the last 12 months of 12-month readings, and there&#39;s really no pattern there. We&#39;re exactly where we were a year ago. So I would also say, it&#39;s premature to discuss pausing. And it&#39;s not something that we&#39;re thinking about. That&#39;s really not a conversation to be had now. We have a ways to go. And the last thing I&#39;ll say is that I would want people to understand our commitment to getting this done and to not making the mistake of not doing enough or the mistake of withdrawing our strong policy and doing that too soon. So those-I control those messages, and that&#39;s my job.</blockquote><blockquote>Source:Transcript of Chair Powell&#39;s Press Conference, November 2, 2022</blockquote><p>And the same policy stance has been proclaimed unanimously across commentary from Fed officials as of late, with many sticking to the narrative that there is still &#34;a long way to go&#34; when it comes to quelling inflation. Despite acknowledging that the &#34;lags with which monetary policy affects economic activity and inflation&#34; are now materializing, which draws the need to start considering a slowdown in the pace of rate hikes, policymakers remain fixed on tightening policy into restrictive territory, nonetheless. The hawkish commentary maintained indicates that &#34;the Fed is likely to lean against easing financial conditions&#34; despite recent data supporting that the economy is slowing. Specifically, a slowing economy is what the Fed essentially wants to ensure inflation is reined in. The intention of continued hawkishness is to prevent markets from mistaking any potential near-term deceleration in the pace of rate increases with a reversal of the economy&#39;s current slowdown.:</p><blockquote>The big picture illustrates that the Fed intends to slow down in order to allow more time for lags to operate and cumulative tightening to date to show up in the data. The hawkish talk from Chair Powell and many Fed officials subsequently is likely intended to provide air cover for the slowing to take place without an excessive easing of financial conditions.</blockquote><blockquote>Source:Bloomberg</blockquote><p><b>What the Past Says</b></p><p>While continued market volatility in the near-term is almost certain, when the market might bottom remains a big question mark. The Fed&#39;s monetary policy tightening campaign implemented this year is the most aggressive in 40-years, but the economy&#39;s relative resilience this time around when compared to the past suggests that some macroeconomic factors have inevitably changed.</p><p>For instance, technology plays a bigger role in today&#39;s economic development, while simpler factors like consumer behavior and the social construct&#39;s role in the global macro economy have also evolved significantly in the past decade alone. The recent COVID pandemic and the ensuing disruptions to businesses and global supply chains has also injected further complexity into today&#39;s macroeconomic conditions compared to past economic downturns, inflationary environments, and monetary policy tightening cycles. Yet, there are also many overlapping similarities between today&#39;s inflationary environment and monetary policy tightening cycles compared to ones in the past that could potentially shed some light on where the economy stands today and what potentially lies ahead.</p><p><b>The &#34;Global Recession&#34; in the 1970s to 1980s</b></p><p><b>Context</b>. Inflation reached double-digits in the U.S. and across major economies during the 1980s. Similar to today&#39;s situation, soaring food and energy prices were culprit to runaway inflation at the time. The back-to-back energy crisis stemming from the Arab oil embargo in the early 1970s and the Iranian Revolution later the same decade, which resulted in a rapid decline in supplies, pushed oil prices up by as much as fourfold at the time.</p><p>Inflation topped 12% in 1974 with the Fed funds rate rising from 7% to 16% by early 1975, pushing the economy into recession. A stark Fed pivot followed with the Fed funds rate cut to 5.25% by April 1975, causing inflation to return while growth remained stagnate. By the time the second energy crisis came around, accommodative policies were deployed by the Fed in hopes of countering unemployment, but backfired by worsening the pace of price increases - inflation rose from below 5% in early 1976 prior to the second energy crisis resulting from the Iranian Revolution, to 7% by 1979. The Federal Funds Rate was pushed from 6.9% to 10% over the same period in hopes of stamping out inflationary pressure without &#34;stifling fragile economic growth&#34; at the time, but to no avail, which led to an extended period of stagflation instead and pushed the economy into recession again.</p><p><b>Timeline of quantitative tightening</b>. The so-called &#34;stop-go policy&#34; during the 1970s came to an end when Paul Volcker took office as Fed Chair in 1979. Volcker made quelling inflation a priority, &#34;even if it came at the detriment of short-term employment&#34;. To some extent, this is similar to Fed Chair Powell&#39;s commitment to arresting decades-high inflation &#34;even if doing so risks an economic downturn&#34;.</p><p>Inflation had already entered double-digits at 11% when Volcker became Fed Chair, while America&#39;s jobless rate was inching close to 6% near the end of the 1970s. Fed rate hikes continued, pushing the economy into deep recession by 1982 with the unemployment rate reaching 11%. Over a three-year span, the Volker-led Fed pushed its benchmark rate as high as 20% and stayed in the double-digit range until inflation had fallen to 5% by late 1982. The Fed pivoted then with rates declining to single-digits, alleviating unemployment from the peak of 11% to 8% by 1983.</p><p><b>S&amp;P 500 Bottom</b>. The S&amp;P 500 traded at single-digit(7.4x to 9.0x) estimated earnings when Volcker led an aggressive quantitative tightening cycle, which was reflective of the lower value of future cash flows. The market subsequently recovered when it became structurally clear that double-digit inflation was put away for good in the latter half of the 1980s.</p><p><b>Policy mistakes</b>. The stop-go monetary policy implemented in the 1970s has been largely viewed as a policy mistake today:</p><blockquote>In the 1970s, the Fed pursued what economists would call &#34;stop-go&#34; monetary policy, which alternated between fighting high unemployment and high inflation. During the &#34;go&#34; periods, the Fed lowered interest rates to loosen the money supply and target lower unemployment. During the &#34;stop&#34; periods, when inflation mounted, the Fed would raise interest rates to reduce inflationary pressure.</blockquote><blockquote>Source:Federal Reserve History</blockquote><p>The on-and-off tightening eventually let inflation and unemployment run loose through the decade. Today, Fed Chair Powell looks to be taking a page from the 1970s on managing risks of runaway inflation, cautioning against a premature loosening of monetary policies even if economic recession is becoming a certain possibility.</p><blockquote>We are not trying to provoke, and I don&#39;t think we will need to provoke, a recession,&#34; Powell said at a hearing before the U.S. Senate Banking Committee, although he acknowledged that a recession was &#34;certainly a possibility&#34; and events in the last few months around the world had made it more difficult to reduce inflation without causing one</blockquote><blockquote>Source:Reuters</blockquote><p><b>Greenspan Tightening 1999 to 2000</b></p><p><b>Context.</b> The Federal Reserve had resorted to monetary easing in 1998 as a pre-emptive measure to shore up U.S. growth&#34;in the face of economic turmoil overseas&#34; at the time, even though unemployment was at a historical low rate of 4.5%. But by 1999, it was clear the U.S. economy was booming, exhibiting a combination of robust consumer demand and job market, while inflation remained in check. This led the Fed to reverse courseunder Alan Greenspan leadership, and aboard a rate hike cycle that consisted of a 175 bps increases in 1999 from 4.75% to 6.5% by mid-2000.</p><p><b>Timeline of quantitative tightening.</b> The 1999 tightening cycle was largely viewed as the Fed&#39;s intention to &#34;protect consumers and financial markets from something it has yet to see - a substantial rise in inflationary pressures&#34;. Inflation was largely flat at the time, while GDP growth almos thalved from 4.3% in the first quarter to 2.3% in the second quarter at the time.</p><p>By mid-2000, the Fed funds rate had reached 6.5%. Coinciding with the dotcom bubble burst that led to severe market instability, fears that continued tightening would slow the U.S. economy into recession had escalated. A Fed pivot ensued with rates cutting back to the 3% range, followed by further reductions in 2001 after the 9-11 World Trade Center terrorist attack that took the Fed funds rate to the 1% range.</p><p><b>S&amp;P 500 Bottom.</b> Over the course of the Greenspan-led &#34;flip-flop on interest rates&#34; between 1999 and 2001, stocks actually sold off even when the Fed pivoted to monetary easing. The selloff continued into late 2002 to levels not seen since 1998.</p><p>Market instability was marked by a combination of lofty valuations in internet stocks that fell to shambles after a slew of fraudulent reporting (cue Enron) and bankruptcies surfaced, underscoring rapid erosion of investors&#39; confidence. The 9-11 terrorist attack also escalated uncertainties over the U.S. economic outlook at the time, adding pressure to the market downturn at the time. The S&amp;P 500 bottomed by late 2002, trading at double-digit (~30x) estimated earnings - a stark contrast to observations in the 1980s - which was consistent with record-low borrowing costs at the time.</p><p><b>Policy mistakes.</b> The low interest rates embraced by Greenspan to arrest market instability and declines was largely known as the &#34;Greenspan put&#34;, which is viewed today as a key factor that led the run-up to the 2008 housing market collapse. The Greenspan put instilled a mentality that the Fed would restore market stability in the event of declines - essentially, moral hazard - which caused &#34;excessive risk-taking in stock markets&#34;. This eventually led to high-flying valuations, particularly in internet stocks, that crashed in the 2000s. Similar happened again when financial markets collapsed in 2008.</p><p><b>The &#34;Great Recession&#34; of 2007 to 2009 and the 2008 Financial Crisis</b></p><p><b>Context.</b> Rate hikes resumed under Greenspan&#39;s leadership in 2004 when GDP growth was pushing 4% while inflation was at 2.7% and unemployment at 5.4%, showing signs of an overheating economy. Interest rates rose from 1.0% to 5.25% over the course of 17 incremental hikes between 2004 and 2006, when inflation surpassed 3%.</p><p>By 2007, GDP growth had fallen to 2%, and deteriorated rapidly to 0.1% the following year with unemployment surpassing 7% and inflation pushing 4%. The U.S. economy had effectively entered recession at the time, with unemployment reaching 10% by late 2009 fuelled by the housing bubble burst in 2008 (i.e. 2008 financial crisis). The S&amp;P 500 fell 57% over the same period, wiping out close to$15 trillion in American&#39;s net worth.</p><p><b>Timeline of quantitative tightening.</b> The 2004 to 2006 tightening cycle peaked with the Fed funds rate at 5.25%, but was insufficient in stamping out inflation and keeping unemployment at bay. This effectively drove the U.S. economy into recession by 2007, with a combination of fiscal and monetary policy easing implemented under the leadership of then-president George W. Bush and then-Fed-Chair Ben Bernanke with aims of shoring up the economy. The 2008 financial crisis ensuing from the housing bubble burst that left &#34;trillions of dollars of worthless investments in subprime mortgages&#34; also compounded pains.</p><p>By the end of 2008, the Fed funds rate had already been cut to the0% to 0.25%range to stem the economy from unravelling further. The FOMC had intended to keep the Fed funds rate &#34;at exceptionally low levels for some time and then for an extended period&#34; at the time, and the near-zero range eventually held until 2015. Monetary policy under Bernanke&#39;s leadership was focused on the &#34;use [of the FOMC&#39;s] policy statement to provide forward guidance for the federal funds rate&#34;, which helped manage market&#39;s understanding of economic and financial conditions during the Great Recession.</p><p>The Fed also implemented &#34;large scale asset purchase&#34; (&#34;LSAP&#34;) programs at the time to ensure &#34;longer-term public and private borrowing rates&#34; were kept at low levels in alignment with the near-zero Fed funds rate. This included the Fed&#39;s buyback of mortgage-backed securities (&#34;MBS&#34;) and Treasuries at the time to &#34;reduce the cost and increase the availability of credit for home purchases&#34; - a detrimental corner of the market during the financial crisis. The LSAP program is also similar to the MBS and Treasury buybacks implemented by the Fed at the onset of the COVID pandemic in2020to &#34;help ensure chaotic markets function properly [and] ensure credit flows to corporations as well as state and local governments&#34;.</p><p><b>S&amp;P 500 Bottom.</b> The S&amp;P 500 fell 57% between October 2007 and March 2009, though the economy remained weak with unemployment still on the run towards 9.5% in June 2009 before peaking at 10% in October 2009. The index was trading at more than 70x estimated earnings at its trough in March 2009, which was consistent with the hit on corporate fundamental performance across the board, as well as record-low borrowing costs at the 0% to 0.25% range. The valuation multiple moderated to the 20x-range of forward earnings by 2010 as corporate fundamentals started to recover, while the Fed funds rate was held steady at the near-zero range.</p><p><b>Policy mistakes.</b> As discussed in the earlier section, the housing bubble burst that also contributed to the Global Recession from 2007 to 2009 was likely partially driven by market moral hazard instilled by the Greenspan put. Recall that Bernanke also sought to rapid rate cuts between 2007 and 2008 in response to deteriorating macro conditions and the sliding market, adopting a similar strategy as Greenspan that &#34;may have been a catalyst contributing to the conditions of the 2008 financial crisis&#34;.</p><p>However, Bernanke&#39;s subsequent adherence to low interest rates for an extended period, as well as bank bailouts that cost as much as$700 billion, and other monetary easing policies such as the LSAP program ($1.75 trillion) was key to the long, yet stable market recovery in the years that followed.</p><p><b>The COVID Pandemic</b></p><p><b>Context.</b> Fed rate hikes resumed in 2015 under Fed Chair Janet Yellen after economic growth showed an extended period of stabilization in the 2% range, while inflation was flat with unemployment at 5%. The hikes continued even after Jerome Powell took over as Fed Chair in 2018 until the Fed funds rate reached 2.5% by the end of the same year.</p><p><b>Timeline of quantitative tightening.</b> The Federal Reserve resumed monetary policy tightening in 2015 upon evidence of &#34;improvement in the labor market [and reasonable confidence] that inflation would move back to its 2% objective over the medium term&#34;. As mentioned in the earlier section, unemployment had fallen to 5% in 2015 from the peak of 10% during late 2009. The intention was to pursue rate hikes while also maintaining an accommodative policy stance to &#34;support further improvement in labor market conditions and a return to 2% inflation&#34;.</p><p>The Fed pivoted to rate cuts by the summer of 2019 after the global equity market lost close to $7 trillion of its value by the end of 2018. However, GDP maintained at the 2%-range at the time, while unemployment was at 3.5% and inflation inched up to 1.9%, which stoked concerns of an eventual economic downturn. Rates were cut from the peak of 2.5% in late 2018 to 1.75% by late 2019. Rapid easing took place with rates sliding to the 0% to 0.25% range at the onset of the COVID pandemic in March 2020.</p><p><b>S&amp;P 500 Bottom.</b> More than $7 trillion in global market value was lost in 2018, with the S&amp;P 500 giving up close to 10% of its value (or almost 18% from the 2018 peak in September) before finding bottom near year-end. The index was trading at about 20x forward earnings at the time, which was consistent with rising, yet still low, interest rates at the time, relative to past financial crises.</p><p><b>Policy mistakes</b>. Market critics have viewed the 2015 rate hike cycle as &#34;premature&#34;, given inflation was still struggling to climb back towards the 2% Fed target at the time. It was not until 2018 when inflation topped 2%, which also coincided with market&#39;s negative reaction to rising borrowing costs following the preceding years of a near-zero Fed funds rate.</p><p><b>What Exactly is Valuation Composed of?</b></p><p>Before drawing on past economic cycles to gauge forward expectations, we turn to basic valuation theory to understand the interaction between key driving factors, including interest rates, inflation, unemployment and GDP. Most of the time, when we think of valuation, we think of the fundamental leg (e.g. growth, earnings, cash flows, etc.) and the valuation multiple (which is influenced by cost of capital / discount rate). But in economic theory, valuation can also be split into the following two components: steady-state firm value + future value creation.</p><p><b>Steady-State Firm Value</b></p><p>The steady-state value is defined as the value of the firm when &#34;NOPAT (net operating profit after tax) is sustainable indefinitely and incremental investments will neither add, nor subtract, value&#34;. This does not necessarily mean the point at which a company grows at 0% forever, but rather the point of growth that stays constant regardless of whether incremental investments are made (i.e. it could be a steady-state perpetual growth or declining rate).</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/578dbfd401111f95b82426bc244ff6c8\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"67\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Steady-State Value Formula (Valuation Theory)</p><p>One way to depict steady-state value is via the steady-state firm value P/E ratio, which is defined as 1 divided by cost of capital:</p><blockquote>A company can continue to grow earnings as it invests at the cost of capital. It will just fail to create value, and hence should trade at its steady-state worth. We can readily translate from the steady-state value to a steady-state price-earnings multiple, which is the reciprocal of the cost of [capital].</blockquote><blockquote>Source:Credit Suisse</blockquote><p>The intuition is to find the valuation multiple (i.e. P/E ratio, in this case) reflective of the point at which continued investments at the cost of capital will continue to drive earnings growth, but not necessarily yield any incremental value creation, and hence stay at a steady-state of &#34;1&#34;.</p><p>To gauge where the market&#39;s steady-state value might be headed, we turn to key driving factor, cost of capital. Cost of capital is essentially the borrowing cost, which can be benchmarked against the Fed funds rate. Based on an understanding of past economic cycles, the Federal Reserve today is likely leaning towards the Volcker era, with a sprinkle of Bernanke.</p><p>What this means is that the Fed&#39;s commitment to taming inflation - even if it comes at the cost of some near-term economic pain - will eventually lead to more rate hikes in coming months, especially as inflation today remains far from the 2% target. This is consistent with the growing drumbeat of calls by Fed officials to raise rates into &#34;restrictive territory&#34; and holding it there until there is structural evidence inflation is back on track towards the committee&#39;s target range. To prevent further policy mistakes (we say &#34;further&#34; since the whole &#34;transitory inflation&#34; narrative last year obviously did not work out), responding to recent signs of slowing demand with a Fed pivot is essentially off the table, as implementing such as policy would likely be begging for a repeat of the &#34;stop-go&#34; disaster in the 1970s before Volcker. At best, the Fed will likely stick to what it has been doing at recent meetings - setting clean and clear forward expectations for markets like Bernanke had. In today&#39;s case, this means there will be more tightening in financial conditions that could potentially push the terminal rate higher, while keeping in mind of the &#34;effects of lags in monetary policy&#34; and start considering a moderation in the pace of coming rate hikes.</p><p>Traders are largely expecting a moderation in the pace of rate hikes from the jumbo 75 bps seen over the summer and fall, to a half-point increase at the coming December meeting, which would bring the Fed funds rate range from the current 3.75% to 4%, to 4.25% to 4.5%. The terminal rate is expected to reach 5% to 5.25%based on current prices on 1H23 Fed swaps. Substituting the estimated terminal rate of about 5% plus an additional percentage point to account for forward market risk premium (reflective of difference between 1-year Treasury yield of about 4.75% today and the current Fed funds rate range of 3.75% and 4%) as proxy for market cost of capital in gauging the steady-state firm value P/E ratio would yield about 17x. The S&amp;P 500, which can be viewed as a proxy for the weighted average of its constituents&#39; respective valuations, currently trades at about 20x estimated earnings. If market steady-state firm value is to be adjusted as a result of continued Fed policy tightening, the S&amp;P 500 could potentially move another leg lower by as much as 15% between now and when the Fed funds rate peaks in the current tightening cycle, which is estimated to occur by mid-2023.</p><p>But there are a myriad of other factors that could impact where the so-called steady-state firm value is headed as Fed tightening continues over coming months, including economic growth and investor sentiment on a broader basis. This is consistent with the observation discussed in earlier sections that market bottomed in March 2009 even though the economy continued to deteriorate with unemployment hitting trough at 10% seven months later in October 2009. This could both be reflective of the fact that market is forward looking (or priced at estimated earnings and forward macro expectations) and/or the lag effect in which monetary policy works, among other factors. What this essentially means is that while rate hikes are expected to peak by mid-2023, it does not necessarily mean that is also when the market will bottom. But nonetheless, even if it is almost impossible to gauge the exact timing, it is more likely that not that the market is skewed towards further downside risks through the first quarter of 2023 at the minimum.</p><p>In addition to the steady-state P/E ratio method, the Gordon growth model is another way to gauge steady-state firm value.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/97b0f365e67a424db79cb49516d8b5f7\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"74\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Gordon Growth Model (Valuation Theory)</p><p>The key assumption here other than cost of capital is GDP growth. GDP growth is typically used as a key benchmark to gauge the implied perpetual growth of a company, with addition consideration of the maturity of its industry as well as other company-specific factors such as market leadership, competitive advantages, and/or market share:</p><blockquote>Companies operating in industries that are higher growth in nature are typically valued at a perpetual growth rate closer to or more than GDP, given their greater contributions to economic growth. Alternatively, companies operating in lower growth and/or mature industries are typically allocated a lower perpetual growth rate.</blockquote><blockquote>Source: &#34;Shorting Tesla: Bridging Lofty Valuations to Economics&#34;</blockquote><p>As discussed in the earlier section, demand is likely to show a marked slowdown in coming months as consumer purchasing power wanes, especially if unemployment worsens, which will lead to further deteriorating in economic growth. Even though the labor market has remained largely resilient despite the recent slew of high-paid tech layoffs (accounts foronly ~2%of total U.S. employment), consumer weakness is expected to tame demand further and eventually hit corporate earnings, potentially resulting in more cost-driven job cuts. This is further corroborated by the gradual uptick in recent jobless claimsas well as jobless rate to &#34;3.7%from a more than five-decade low&#34;. This means GDP is likely to slow as interest rates increase, widening the spread between cost of capital and growth in the denominator of the Gordon growth model, and inadvertently, diminishing the steady-state firm value.</p><p><b>Future Value Creation Premium</b></p><p>The future value creation premium accounts for the incremental value that additional investments at the cost of capital would earn (i.e. return on capital), and also takes into consideration the time period in which this value-creating opportunity would last.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/08bfdfec8d89633ac41365f0fcd39554\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"48\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Future Value Creation Formula (Valuation Theory)</p><p>This is essentially a premium to the steady-state firm value, and explains the lofty valuations relative to broader markets observed in certain stocks, such as Apple(AAPL), Tesla(TSLA) and Snowflake(SNOW), today. Admittedly, these companies have either or all of outperforming balance sheets, profit margins, and/or growth prospects relative to peers, but not all are valued in proportion to the mean growth-valuation ratio observed among their respective peer groups.</p><p>In addition to the &#34;competitive advantage period&#34;, which measures the anticipated time period in which the added value-creating opportunity would last, key assumptions in deriving future value creation premium is return on capital and cost of capital. And return on capital can be substituted by anticipated economic expansion, or GDP growth - when the economy is good, growth and profit margins will likely perform better, and vice versa. But as discussed in the earlier section, GDP growth is likely skewed to the downside within the foreseeable future as demand continues to slow and profit margins get squeezed as a result of high input costs, and near-term requirements for more-than-usual promotional offers to offload excess product inventories.</p><p>Paired with the anticipation for greater increases to the cost of capital as a result of Fed hawkishness that will more likely than not continue for a while longer, the cost-return spread in the numerator of the future value creation component of valuation is poised to narrow. And as cost of capital continues to increase, the denominator will also expand, hence diminishing the future value creation component of broader market valuations, which corroborates the expectation for more downside potential within the near-term.</p><p><b>Implications for the S&amp;P 500 and Nasdaq 100 - Is the Bottom Near?</b></p><p>Based on valuation theory, and the anticipation for sustained hawkish Fed sentiment drawn from historical observations, the broader market is likely to see further volatility ahead as valuations adjust to rising rates and declining demand. While the timing at which markets will bottom remains uncertain, we are of the view that company fundamentals are only just starting to feel the impact of consumer weakness, which points to further value erosion through 1H23.</p><p>Specifically, consumer spending has remained resilient through the first half of 2022 despite deteriorating sentiment due to surging inflation and rising borrowing costs. But headed into the first half of the fourth quarter, declining business activity and warnings of a marked slowdown among consumer-centric industries such as retail underscore that waning consumer sentiment is now really materializing into real weakness. This is further supported by the consistent drop in American household savings and rise in credit card debt, among other observations, discussed earlier on in this analysis.</p><p>And a specific note to the tech-heavy Nasdaq 100 (NASDAQ: QQQ/NDX), constituents&#39; valuations are likely to be hit harder compared to those in the S&amp;P 500 given their cash flows are further out (with some still in pre-revenue phase and/or unprofitable) from realization and subject to a heavier discount as costs of capital increase. The index also consists of constituents with some of the biggest valuation premiums given lofty forward growth expectations previously priced in that may not materialize as expected within the foreseeable future, thus pointing to greater vulnerability to downside risks ahead.</p><p>And given risks of further macro deterioration are now skewed higher with recent economic data pointing to a moderation in the labor market, while monetary policy tightening continues to flow through different corners of the economy, the ensuing rise in the likelihood of a recession will likely take the market a leg lower through the first half of 2023, even if we start to see structural easing in price pressures.</p></body></html>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Here's Why We Think SPY And QQQ Risks Are Skewed To The Downside</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; 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}\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nHere's Why We Think SPY And QQQ Risks Are Skewed To The Downside\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2022-11-27 12:16 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://seekingalpha.com/article/4560523-heres-why-we-think-spy-and-qqq-risks-are-skewed-to-the-downside><strong>Seeking Alpha</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>SummaryEquities have been on a gradual climb since the beginning of the fourth quarter, with the SPY up 13% and QQQ up 8% QTD.There has also been some cautious optimism among investors on signs of ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4560523-heres-why-we-think-spy-and-qqq-risks-are-skewed-to-the-downside\">Source Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"SPY":"标普500ETF","QQQ":"纳指100ETF"},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4560523-heres-why-we-think-spy-and-qqq-risks-are-skewed-to-the-downside","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1110767793","content_text":"SummaryEquities have been on a gradual climb since the beginning of the fourth quarter, with the SPY up 13% and QQQ up 8% QTD.There has also been some cautious optimism among investors on signs of easing inflation and the Fed's consideration for a moderation in the pace of coming rate hikes.However, company fundamentals that were previously resilient are now just starting to show the first signs of cracks, while continued borrowing cost increases will only weigh on valuations further.The following deep dive analysis will walk through past economic cycles, valuation theory, and recent economic data to gauge where Fed policy might be headed and the related implications on SPY and QQQ valuations as we head into the new year.The S&P 500 (NYSEARCA: SPY/SP500) has gradually climbed more than 12% since the fourth quarter began, and closed at a two-month high during Wednesday's (November 23) session after a flurry of economic data released in recent weeks pointed to easing price pressures and market slowdown that could harbinger a dovish Fed policy stance over coming months. October CPI and PPI showed a stronger reduction in prices than expected, while recent data on jobless claims, retail sales, and business activity also pointed to a slowdown in demand, especially for discretionary goods.Despite hawkish commentary from Fed officials still, investors are responding positively to remarks that the pace of rate hikes might be moderating from the recent slew of jumbo 75 bps increases. This has compounded market optimism on a potential shift on the Fed's policy tightening trajectory to a more dovish stance, with investors' now focusing more on a potential slowdown in the pace of coming rate hikes than where the terminal rate might land (i.e. when the Fed might actually pivot).But from a valuation and fundamental perspective, continued rate hikes are poised to squeeze multiples further into contraction, while ensuing deteriorating of financial conditions put corporate earnings at risk. With slowing demand, and mounting macroeconomic uncertainties over the Fed's tightening trajectory, when inflation would peak, and whether a recession is imminently still at large, volatility will likely continue to overpower markets. While it is difficult to gauge when exactly markets might bottom as macro deterioration gains momentum, the following analysis will turn to past tightening cycles and inflation environments, as well as basic valuation theory to explore where the market climate stands today and what to potentially expect over coming months.Recent Economic OverviewThe drumbeat for moderating inflation grew after CPI and PPI figures came in lower than expected. October CPI rose7.7% y/yand 0.4% m/m (core +6.3% y/y, +0.3% m/m), marking the \"smallest annual advance since the start of the year\" and coming in under economist estimates of 7.9% y/y and 0.6% m/m. U.S. PPI also eased in October, advancing 8% y/y(core +6.7% y/) and 0.2% m/m (core 0% m/m) compared with economist estimates of 8.3% y/y and 0.4% m/m. The back-to-back indication of easing price pressures pushed the S&P 500 higher in early November, as markets saw it as an encouraging sign that the Fed might resort to less aggressive tightening in the months ahead and potentially achieve a soft-landing that could be beneficial to the valuation of risky assets that have been roiled across the board this year.But investors were quickly sent back to the sidelines after stronger-than-expectedU.S. retail sales data for October indicated that the economy was still running hot, while Fed officials rushed to warn markets that \"inflation remains much too high for comfort\" and there is \"still a long way to go\" on keeping decades-high price increases under control. But a deeper look into the drivers of retail sales increases would suggest that consumer purchasing power is starting to feel the pinch of both rising inflation and interest rates, and the volume of sales is likely deteriorating too since the October figure of 1.3% is not adjusted for inflation.As discussed in one of our recent coverages, the biggest driver of October's retail sales growth was on basic necessities like food and energy. Meanwhile, spending on discretionary goods like consumer electronics and apparel saw a marked decline, indicating that consumer purchasing power is waning on the back of surging inflation and tightening financial conditions:Meanwhile, retailers of discretionary goods such as apparel, consumer electronics, and sporting goods saw a sales decline of more than 2% over the same period. The results imply continued weakening in consumer purchasing power as inflationary pressures persist, while retailers of discretionary goods are looking to lure buyers ahead of the holiday shopping season with price cuts and steep discounts in an attempt to clear inventories.Source: \"2 Retail Stocks to Watch After Retail Sales Rose in October - We are Watching Amazon and Apple\"The shift in consumer behavior in response to mounting macroeconomic uncertainties ahead is also telling of the impending demand slowdown over the coming months. Consumer credit card debt is fast approaching the pre-pandemic peak of $916 billion as of the end of September, and the continuation of this trend is further corroborated by recent observations by retailer Macy's (M), which saw its customers \"building larger balances on credit cards\". The latest data shows that Americans' credit card debt has increased by 15% y/y, the fastest pace in two decades while card borrowing costs topped 19%, a level not seen in 40 years.The impending slowdown in demand and spending is further supported by the recent rise in jobless claims and contraction in business activity. U.S. jobless claims topped 240,000 during the week ended November 19th, topping consensus estimates of 225,000 and up from 17,000 in the prior week. The jump was the highest in months, a potential sign that the labor market might be cooling as a result of recent mass layoffs across big tech, though economists are also cautioning effects of seasonal attrition, which introduces a \"great deal of volatility into this data\". The U.S. job market has remained stubbornly resilient despite the Fed's implementation of aggressive tools to slow the economy this year, with the jobless rate still at a 50-year low of3.7%:Tech companies represent about 2% of all employment in the country, said Richardson. That compares with 11% for the leisure and hospitality industry, which is still struggling to hire workers, she added.Source:BloombergThe broad takeaway is a job market that's cooling albeit not very quickly. That lines up with Jerome Powell's characterization earlier this week, when the Fed chair acknowledged conditions haven't softened yet in an \"obvious\" way and said the central bank is eyeing a higher peak interest rate than it was two months ago.Source:BloombergBut added softness in business activity indicates that even \"some of the more resilient parts of the economy\" are undoubtedly showing cracks as a result of the Fed's aggressive policy stance deployed this year. The S&P Global Flash U.S. Composite PMI, which measures activity across the American private sector, saw a \"solid contraction\" this month. The index reached the \"second lowest level\" since the onset of the pandemic and imitates the dire business environment in 2009. Managers reported slowing demand and new orders due to the effects of \"rising interest rates, economic uncertainty and the lingering effects of still elevated inflation\". Consistent with commentary gathered in the latest third quarter earnings season, promotional offers are gaining momentum across suppliers, factories and service providers to \"help boost flagging sales\", which is poised to weigh on private sector earnings over coming months.Although easing inflationary pressures is a welcomed sight, recent data points to rapid unravelling of an economy that is likely headed towards recession. Minutes from the FOMC meeting in November indicated that policymakers are now seeing a 50/50 risk of recession within the next year, compared with a more aggressive forecast of65%on Wall Street and as much as100%by a Bloomberg Economics model.What the Fed SaysAmidst the paradox between recent market optimism and a rapidly deteriorating macro backdrop, the Federal Reserve is sticking to its hawkish policy stance in hopes of preventing an unravelling of the work done to date to quell inflation. Recall Fed Chair Jerome Powell's stern remarks on managing market expectations during the post-meeting conference in November:CHRISTOPHER RUGABER. Great, and just a quick follow. It looks like stock and bond markets are reacting positively to your announcement so far. Is that something you wanted to see? Is that a problem or what-how that might affect your future policy to see this positive reaction?CHAIR POWELL. We're not targeting any one or two particular things. Our message should be-what I'm trying to do is make sure that our message is clear, which is that we think we have a ways to go, we have some ground to cover with interest rates before we get to, before we get to that level of interest rates that we think is sufficiently restrictive…If you look at the-I have a table of the last 12 months of 12-month readings, and there's really no pattern there. We're exactly where we were a year ago. So I would also say, it's premature to discuss pausing. And it's not something that we're thinking about. That's really not a conversation to be had now. We have a ways to go. And the last thing I'll say is that I would want people to understand our commitment to getting this done and to not making the mistake of not doing enough or the mistake of withdrawing our strong policy and doing that too soon. So those-I control those messages, and that's my job.Source:Transcript of Chair Powell's Press Conference, November 2, 2022And the same policy stance has been proclaimed unanimously across commentary from Fed officials as of late, with many sticking to the narrative that there is still \"a long way to go\" when it comes to quelling inflation. Despite acknowledging that the \"lags with which monetary policy affects economic activity and inflation\" are now materializing, which draws the need to start considering a slowdown in the pace of rate hikes, policymakers remain fixed on tightening policy into restrictive territory, nonetheless. The hawkish commentary maintained indicates that \"the Fed is likely to lean against easing financial conditions\" despite recent data supporting that the economy is slowing. Specifically, a slowing economy is what the Fed essentially wants to ensure inflation is reined in. The intention of continued hawkishness is to prevent markets from mistaking any potential near-term deceleration in the pace of rate increases with a reversal of the economy's current slowdown.:The big picture illustrates that the Fed intends to slow down in order to allow more time for lags to operate and cumulative tightening to date to show up in the data. The hawkish talk from Chair Powell and many Fed officials subsequently is likely intended to provide air cover for the slowing to take place without an excessive easing of financial conditions.Source:BloombergWhat the Past SaysWhile continued market volatility in the near-term is almost certain, when the market might bottom remains a big question mark. The Fed's monetary policy tightening campaign implemented this year is the most aggressive in 40-years, but the economy's relative resilience this time around when compared to the past suggests that some macroeconomic factors have inevitably changed.For instance, technology plays a bigger role in today's economic development, while simpler factors like consumer behavior and the social construct's role in the global macro economy have also evolved significantly in the past decade alone. The recent COVID pandemic and the ensuing disruptions to businesses and global supply chains has also injected further complexity into today's macroeconomic conditions compared to past economic downturns, inflationary environments, and monetary policy tightening cycles. Yet, there are also many overlapping similarities between today's inflationary environment and monetary policy tightening cycles compared to ones in the past that could potentially shed some light on where the economy stands today and what potentially lies ahead.The \"Global Recession\" in the 1970s to 1980sContext. Inflation reached double-digits in the U.S. and across major economies during the 1980s. Similar to today's situation, soaring food and energy prices were culprit to runaway inflation at the time. The back-to-back energy crisis stemming from the Arab oil embargo in the early 1970s and the Iranian Revolution later the same decade, which resulted in a rapid decline in supplies, pushed oil prices up by as much as fourfold at the time.Inflation topped 12% in 1974 with the Fed funds rate rising from 7% to 16% by early 1975, pushing the economy into recession. A stark Fed pivot followed with the Fed funds rate cut to 5.25% by April 1975, causing inflation to return while growth remained stagnate. By the time the second energy crisis came around, accommodative policies were deployed by the Fed in hopes of countering unemployment, but backfired by worsening the pace of price increases - inflation rose from below 5% in early 1976 prior to the second energy crisis resulting from the Iranian Revolution, to 7% by 1979. The Federal Funds Rate was pushed from 6.9% to 10% over the same period in hopes of stamping out inflationary pressure without \"stifling fragile economic growth\" at the time, but to no avail, which led to an extended period of stagflation instead and pushed the economy into recession again.Timeline of quantitative tightening. The so-called \"stop-go policy\" during the 1970s came to an end when Paul Volcker took office as Fed Chair in 1979. Volcker made quelling inflation a priority, \"even if it came at the detriment of short-term employment\". To some extent, this is similar to Fed Chair Powell's commitment to arresting decades-high inflation \"even if doing so risks an economic downturn\".Inflation had already entered double-digits at 11% when Volcker became Fed Chair, while America's jobless rate was inching close to 6% near the end of the 1970s. Fed rate hikes continued, pushing the economy into deep recession by 1982 with the unemployment rate reaching 11%. Over a three-year span, the Volker-led Fed pushed its benchmark rate as high as 20% and stayed in the double-digit range until inflation had fallen to 5% by late 1982. The Fed pivoted then with rates declining to single-digits, alleviating unemployment from the peak of 11% to 8% by 1983.S&P 500 Bottom. The S&P 500 traded at single-digit(7.4x to 9.0x) estimated earnings when Volcker led an aggressive quantitative tightening cycle, which was reflective of the lower value of future cash flows. The market subsequently recovered when it became structurally clear that double-digit inflation was put away for good in the latter half of the 1980s.Policy mistakes. The stop-go monetary policy implemented in the 1970s has been largely viewed as a policy mistake today:In the 1970s, the Fed pursued what economists would call \"stop-go\" monetary policy, which alternated between fighting high unemployment and high inflation. During the \"go\" periods, the Fed lowered interest rates to loosen the money supply and target lower unemployment. During the \"stop\" periods, when inflation mounted, the Fed would raise interest rates to reduce inflationary pressure.Source:Federal Reserve HistoryThe on-and-off tightening eventually let inflation and unemployment run loose through the decade. Today, Fed Chair Powell looks to be taking a page from the 1970s on managing risks of runaway inflation, cautioning against a premature loosening of monetary policies even if economic recession is becoming a certain possibility.We are not trying to provoke, and I don't think we will need to provoke, a recession,\" Powell said at a hearing before the U.S. Senate Banking Committee, although he acknowledged that a recession was \"certainly a possibility\" and events in the last few months around the world had made it more difficult to reduce inflation without causing oneSource:ReutersGreenspan Tightening 1999 to 2000Context. The Federal Reserve had resorted to monetary easing in 1998 as a pre-emptive measure to shore up U.S. growth\"in the face of economic turmoil overseas\" at the time, even though unemployment was at a historical low rate of 4.5%. But by 1999, it was clear the U.S. economy was booming, exhibiting a combination of robust consumer demand and job market, while inflation remained in check. This led the Fed to reverse courseunder Alan Greenspan leadership, and aboard a rate hike cycle that consisted of a 175 bps increases in 1999 from 4.75% to 6.5% by mid-2000.Timeline of quantitative tightening. The 1999 tightening cycle was largely viewed as the Fed's intention to \"protect consumers and financial markets from something it has yet to see - a substantial rise in inflationary pressures\". Inflation was largely flat at the time, while GDP growth almos thalved from 4.3% in the first quarter to 2.3% in the second quarter at the time.By mid-2000, the Fed funds rate had reached 6.5%. Coinciding with the dotcom bubble burst that led to severe market instability, fears that continued tightening would slow the U.S. economy into recession had escalated. A Fed pivot ensued with rates cutting back to the 3% range, followed by further reductions in 2001 after the 9-11 World Trade Center terrorist attack that took the Fed funds rate to the 1% range.S&P 500 Bottom. Over the course of the Greenspan-led \"flip-flop on interest rates\" between 1999 and 2001, stocks actually sold off even when the Fed pivoted to monetary easing. The selloff continued into late 2002 to levels not seen since 1998.Market instability was marked by a combination of lofty valuations in internet stocks that fell to shambles after a slew of fraudulent reporting (cue Enron) and bankruptcies surfaced, underscoring rapid erosion of investors' confidence. The 9-11 terrorist attack also escalated uncertainties over the U.S. economic outlook at the time, adding pressure to the market downturn at the time. The S&P 500 bottomed by late 2002, trading at double-digit (~30x) estimated earnings - a stark contrast to observations in the 1980s - which was consistent with record-low borrowing costs at the time.Policy mistakes. The low interest rates embraced by Greenspan to arrest market instability and declines was largely known as the \"Greenspan put\", which is viewed today as a key factor that led the run-up to the 2008 housing market collapse. The Greenspan put instilled a mentality that the Fed would restore market stability in the event of declines - essentially, moral hazard - which caused \"excessive risk-taking in stock markets\". This eventually led to high-flying valuations, particularly in internet stocks, that crashed in the 2000s. Similar happened again when financial markets collapsed in 2008.The \"Great Recession\" of 2007 to 2009 and the 2008 Financial CrisisContext. Rate hikes resumed under Greenspan's leadership in 2004 when GDP growth was pushing 4% while inflation was at 2.7% and unemployment at 5.4%, showing signs of an overheating economy. Interest rates rose from 1.0% to 5.25% over the course of 17 incremental hikes between 2004 and 2006, when inflation surpassed 3%.By 2007, GDP growth had fallen to 2%, and deteriorated rapidly to 0.1% the following year with unemployment surpassing 7% and inflation pushing 4%. The U.S. economy had effectively entered recession at the time, with unemployment reaching 10% by late 2009 fuelled by the housing bubble burst in 2008 (i.e. 2008 financial crisis). The S&P 500 fell 57% over the same period, wiping out close to$15 trillion in American's net worth.Timeline of quantitative tightening. The 2004 to 2006 tightening cycle peaked with the Fed funds rate at 5.25%, but was insufficient in stamping out inflation and keeping unemployment at bay. This effectively drove the U.S. economy into recession by 2007, with a combination of fiscal and monetary policy easing implemented under the leadership of then-president George W. Bush and then-Fed-Chair Ben Bernanke with aims of shoring up the economy. The 2008 financial crisis ensuing from the housing bubble burst that left \"trillions of dollars of worthless investments in subprime mortgages\" also compounded pains.By the end of 2008, the Fed funds rate had already been cut to the0% to 0.25%range to stem the economy from unravelling further. The FOMC had intended to keep the Fed funds rate \"at exceptionally low levels for some time and then for an extended period\" at the time, and the near-zero range eventually held until 2015. Monetary policy under Bernanke's leadership was focused on the \"use [of the FOMC's] policy statement to provide forward guidance for the federal funds rate\", which helped manage market's understanding of economic and financial conditions during the Great Recession.The Fed also implemented \"large scale asset purchase\" (\"LSAP\") programs at the time to ensure \"longer-term public and private borrowing rates\" were kept at low levels in alignment with the near-zero Fed funds rate. This included the Fed's buyback of mortgage-backed securities (\"MBS\") and Treasuries at the time to \"reduce the cost and increase the availability of credit for home purchases\" - a detrimental corner of the market during the financial crisis. The LSAP program is also similar to the MBS and Treasury buybacks implemented by the Fed at the onset of the COVID pandemic in2020to \"help ensure chaotic markets function properly [and] ensure credit flows to corporations as well as state and local governments\".S&P 500 Bottom. The S&P 500 fell 57% between October 2007 and March 2009, though the economy remained weak with unemployment still on the run towards 9.5% in June 2009 before peaking at 10% in October 2009. The index was trading at more than 70x estimated earnings at its trough in March 2009, which was consistent with the hit on corporate fundamental performance across the board, as well as record-low borrowing costs at the 0% to 0.25% range. The valuation multiple moderated to the 20x-range of forward earnings by 2010 as corporate fundamentals started to recover, while the Fed funds rate was held steady at the near-zero range.Policy mistakes. As discussed in the earlier section, the housing bubble burst that also contributed to the Global Recession from 2007 to 2009 was likely partially driven by market moral hazard instilled by the Greenspan put. Recall that Bernanke also sought to rapid rate cuts between 2007 and 2008 in response to deteriorating macro conditions and the sliding market, adopting a similar strategy as Greenspan that \"may have been a catalyst contributing to the conditions of the 2008 financial crisis\".However, Bernanke's subsequent adherence to low interest rates for an extended period, as well as bank bailouts that cost as much as$700 billion, and other monetary easing policies such as the LSAP program ($1.75 trillion) was key to the long, yet stable market recovery in the years that followed.The COVID PandemicContext. Fed rate hikes resumed in 2015 under Fed Chair Janet Yellen after economic growth showed an extended period of stabilization in the 2% range, while inflation was flat with unemployment at 5%. The hikes continued even after Jerome Powell took over as Fed Chair in 2018 until the Fed funds rate reached 2.5% by the end of the same year.Timeline of quantitative tightening. The Federal Reserve resumed monetary policy tightening in 2015 upon evidence of \"improvement in the labor market [and reasonable confidence] that inflation would move back to its 2% objective over the medium term\". As mentioned in the earlier section, unemployment had fallen to 5% in 2015 from the peak of 10% during late 2009. The intention was to pursue rate hikes while also maintaining an accommodative policy stance to \"support further improvement in labor market conditions and a return to 2% inflation\".The Fed pivoted to rate cuts by the summer of 2019 after the global equity market lost close to $7 trillion of its value by the end of 2018. However, GDP maintained at the 2%-range at the time, while unemployment was at 3.5% and inflation inched up to 1.9%, which stoked concerns of an eventual economic downturn. Rates were cut from the peak of 2.5% in late 2018 to 1.75% by late 2019. Rapid easing took place with rates sliding to the 0% to 0.25% range at the onset of the COVID pandemic in March 2020.S&P 500 Bottom. More than $7 trillion in global market value was lost in 2018, with the S&P 500 giving up close to 10% of its value (or almost 18% from the 2018 peak in September) before finding bottom near year-end. The index was trading at about 20x forward earnings at the time, which was consistent with rising, yet still low, interest rates at the time, relative to past financial crises.Policy mistakes. Market critics have viewed the 2015 rate hike cycle as \"premature\", given inflation was still struggling to climb back towards the 2% Fed target at the time. It was not until 2018 when inflation topped 2%, which also coincided with market's negative reaction to rising borrowing costs following the preceding years of a near-zero Fed funds rate.What Exactly is Valuation Composed of?Before drawing on past economic cycles to gauge forward expectations, we turn to basic valuation theory to understand the interaction between key driving factors, including interest rates, inflation, unemployment and GDP. Most of the time, when we think of valuation, we think of the fundamental leg (e.g. growth, earnings, cash flows, etc.) and the valuation multiple (which is influenced by cost of capital / discount rate). But in economic theory, valuation can also be split into the following two components: steady-state firm value + future value creation.Steady-State Firm ValueThe steady-state value is defined as the value of the firm when \"NOPAT (net operating profit after tax) is sustainable indefinitely and incremental investments will neither add, nor subtract, value\". This does not necessarily mean the point at which a company grows at 0% forever, but rather the point of growth that stays constant regardless of whether incremental investments are made (i.e. it could be a steady-state perpetual growth or declining rate).Steady-State Value Formula (Valuation Theory)One way to depict steady-state value is via the steady-state firm value P/E ratio, which is defined as 1 divided by cost of capital:A company can continue to grow earnings as it invests at the cost of capital. It will just fail to create value, and hence should trade at its steady-state worth. We can readily translate from the steady-state value to a steady-state price-earnings multiple, which is the reciprocal of the cost of [capital].Source:Credit SuisseThe intuition is to find the valuation multiple (i.e. P/E ratio, in this case) reflective of the point at which continued investments at the cost of capital will continue to drive earnings growth, but not necessarily yield any incremental value creation, and hence stay at a steady-state of \"1\".To gauge where the market's steady-state value might be headed, we turn to key driving factor, cost of capital. Cost of capital is essentially the borrowing cost, which can be benchmarked against the Fed funds rate. Based on an understanding of past economic cycles, the Federal Reserve today is likely leaning towards the Volcker era, with a sprinkle of Bernanke.What this means is that the Fed's commitment to taming inflation - even if it comes at the cost of some near-term economic pain - will eventually lead to more rate hikes in coming months, especially as inflation today remains far from the 2% target. This is consistent with the growing drumbeat of calls by Fed officials to raise rates into \"restrictive territory\" and holding it there until there is structural evidence inflation is back on track towards the committee's target range. To prevent further policy mistakes (we say \"further\" since the whole \"transitory inflation\" narrative last year obviously did not work out), responding to recent signs of slowing demand with a Fed pivot is essentially off the table, as implementing such as policy would likely be begging for a repeat of the \"stop-go\" disaster in the 1970s before Volcker. At best, the Fed will likely stick to what it has been doing at recent meetings - setting clean and clear forward expectations for markets like Bernanke had. In today's case, this means there will be more tightening in financial conditions that could potentially push the terminal rate higher, while keeping in mind of the \"effects of lags in monetary policy\" and start considering a moderation in the pace of coming rate hikes.Traders are largely expecting a moderation in the pace of rate hikes from the jumbo 75 bps seen over the summer and fall, to a half-point increase at the coming December meeting, which would bring the Fed funds rate range from the current 3.75% to 4%, to 4.25% to 4.5%. The terminal rate is expected to reach 5% to 5.25%based on current prices on 1H23 Fed swaps. Substituting the estimated terminal rate of about 5% plus an additional percentage point to account for forward market risk premium (reflective of difference between 1-year Treasury yield of about 4.75% today and the current Fed funds rate range of 3.75% and 4%) as proxy for market cost of capital in gauging the steady-state firm value P/E ratio would yield about 17x. The S&P 500, which can be viewed as a proxy for the weighted average of its constituents' respective valuations, currently trades at about 20x estimated earnings. If market steady-state firm value is to be adjusted as a result of continued Fed policy tightening, the S&P 500 could potentially move another leg lower by as much as 15% between now and when the Fed funds rate peaks in the current tightening cycle, which is estimated to occur by mid-2023.But there are a myriad of other factors that could impact where the so-called steady-state firm value is headed as Fed tightening continues over coming months, including economic growth and investor sentiment on a broader basis. This is consistent with the observation discussed in earlier sections that market bottomed in March 2009 even though the economy continued to deteriorate with unemployment hitting trough at 10% seven months later in October 2009. This could both be reflective of the fact that market is forward looking (or priced at estimated earnings and forward macro expectations) and/or the lag effect in which monetary policy works, among other factors. What this essentially means is that while rate hikes are expected to peak by mid-2023, it does not necessarily mean that is also when the market will bottom. But nonetheless, even if it is almost impossible to gauge the exact timing, it is more likely that not that the market is skewed towards further downside risks through the first quarter of 2023 at the minimum.In addition to the steady-state P/E ratio method, the Gordon growth model is another way to gauge steady-state firm value.Gordon Growth Model (Valuation Theory)The key assumption here other than cost of capital is GDP growth. GDP growth is typically used as a key benchmark to gauge the implied perpetual growth of a company, with addition consideration of the maturity of its industry as well as other company-specific factors such as market leadership, competitive advantages, and/or market share:Companies operating in industries that are higher growth in nature are typically valued at a perpetual growth rate closer to or more than GDP, given their greater contributions to economic growth. Alternatively, companies operating in lower growth and/or mature industries are typically allocated a lower perpetual growth rate.Source: \"Shorting Tesla: Bridging Lofty Valuations to Economics\"As discussed in the earlier section, demand is likely to show a marked slowdown in coming months as consumer purchasing power wanes, especially if unemployment worsens, which will lead to further deteriorating in economic growth. Even though the labor market has remained largely resilient despite the recent slew of high-paid tech layoffs (accounts foronly ~2%of total U.S. employment), consumer weakness is expected to tame demand further and eventually hit corporate earnings, potentially resulting in more cost-driven job cuts. This is further corroborated by the gradual uptick in recent jobless claimsas well as jobless rate to \"3.7%from a more than five-decade low\". This means GDP is likely to slow as interest rates increase, widening the spread between cost of capital and growth in the denominator of the Gordon growth model, and inadvertently, diminishing the steady-state firm value.Future Value Creation PremiumThe future value creation premium accounts for the incremental value that additional investments at the cost of capital would earn (i.e. return on capital), and also takes into consideration the time period in which this value-creating opportunity would last.Future Value Creation Formula (Valuation Theory)This is essentially a premium to the steady-state firm value, and explains the lofty valuations relative to broader markets observed in certain stocks, such as Apple(AAPL), Tesla(TSLA) and Snowflake(SNOW), today. Admittedly, these companies have either or all of outperforming balance sheets, profit margins, and/or growth prospects relative to peers, but not all are valued in proportion to the mean growth-valuation ratio observed among their respective peer groups.In addition to the \"competitive advantage period\", which measures the anticipated time period in which the added value-creating opportunity would last, key assumptions in deriving future value creation premium is return on capital and cost of capital. And return on capital can be substituted by anticipated economic expansion, or GDP growth - when the economy is good, growth and profit margins will likely perform better, and vice versa. But as discussed in the earlier section, GDP growth is likely skewed to the downside within the foreseeable future as demand continues to slow and profit margins get squeezed as a result of high input costs, and near-term requirements for more-than-usual promotional offers to offload excess product inventories.Paired with the anticipation for greater increases to the cost of capital as a result of Fed hawkishness that will more likely than not continue for a while longer, the cost-return spread in the numerator of the future value creation component of valuation is poised to narrow. And as cost of capital continues to increase, the denominator will also expand, hence diminishing the future value creation component of broader market valuations, which corroborates the expectation for more downside potential within the near-term.Implications for the S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100 - Is the Bottom Near?Based on valuation theory, and the anticipation for sustained hawkish Fed sentiment drawn from historical observations, the broader market is likely to see further volatility ahead as valuations adjust to rising rates and declining demand. While the timing at which markets will bottom remains uncertain, we are of the view that company fundamentals are only just starting to feel the impact of consumer weakness, which points to further value erosion through 1H23.Specifically, consumer spending has remained resilient through the first half of 2022 despite deteriorating sentiment due to surging inflation and rising borrowing costs. But headed into the first half of the fourth quarter, declining business activity and warnings of a marked slowdown among consumer-centric industries such as retail underscore that waning consumer sentiment is now really materializing into real weakness. This is further supported by the consistent drop in American household savings and rise in credit card debt, among other observations, discussed earlier on in this analysis.And a specific note to the tech-heavy Nasdaq 100 (NASDAQ: QQQ/NDX), constituents' valuations are likely to be hit harder compared to those in the S&P 500 given their cash flows are further out (with some still in pre-revenue phase and/or unprofitable) from realization and subject to a heavier discount as costs of capital increase. The index also consists of constituents with some of the biggest valuation premiums given lofty forward growth expectations previously priced in that may not materialize as expected within the foreseeable future, thus pointing to greater vulnerability to downside risks ahead.And given risks of further macro deterioration are now skewed higher with recent economic data pointing to a moderation in the labor market, while monetary policy tightening continues to flow through different corners of the economy, the ensuing rise in the likelihood of a recession will likely take the market a leg lower through the first half of 2023, even if we start to see structural easing in price pressures.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"QQQ":0.9,"SPY":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":3039,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9960116831,"gmtCreate":1668093835123,"gmtModify":1676538012050,"author":{"id":"3581507356092469","authorId":"3581507356092469","name":"ZarNaing","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/79d952595eebae7246a8cf6ffc0054af","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3581507356092469","idStr":"3581507356092469"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/PYPL\">$PayPal(PYPL)$&nbsp;</a><v-v data-views=\"1\"></v-v>","listText":"<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/PYPL\">$PayPal(PYPL)$&nbsp;</a><v-v data-views=\"1\"></v-v>","text":"$PayPal(PYPL)$","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9960116831","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1055,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9932107521,"gmtCreate":1662887268563,"gmtModify":1676537158194,"author":{"id":"3581507356092469","authorId":"3581507356092469","name":"ZarNaing","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/79d952595eebae7246a8cf6ffc0054af","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3581507356092469","idStr":"3581507356092469"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Nice","listText":"Nice","text":"Nice","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9932107521","repostId":"2266817381","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"2266817381","kind":"highlight","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"Dow Jones publishes the world’s most trusted business news and financial information in a variety of media.","home_visible":0,"media_name":"Dow Jones","id":"106","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/150f88aa4d182df19190059f4a365e99"},"pubTimestamp":1662861434,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/2266817381?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2022-09-11 09:57","market":"us","language":"en","title":"How a CEO Rescued a Big Bet on Big Oil; \"There Were a Lot of Doubters\"","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2266817381","media":"Dow Jones","summary":"Occidental Petroleum Corp. entered the thick of the pandemic among the worst prepared of its U.S. oi","content":"<html><head></head><body><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/be5cb2e717152d9e61504d0803ac3654\" tg-width=\"1278\" tg-height=\"1278\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/>Occidental Petroleum Corp. entered the thick of the pandemic among the worst prepared of its U.S. oil-and-gas peers. Struggling with debt from an ill-timed $38 billion deal, Chief ExecutiveVicki Hollubwas fending off activist investorCarl Icahn, who controlled two board seats.</p><p>Two years later, the company has emerged as the top performer in the S&amp;P 500, and Ms. Hollub has traded Mr. Icahn, who sold all of his Occidental shares in March, for Warren Buffett, whoseBerkshire Hathaway Inc. now owns more than 20% of the company.</p><p>It was touch and go for a time. Months before the pandemic took hold, she implemented widespread layoffs. To stave off bankruptcy after oil prices collapsed in 2020, she slashed spending and nearly eliminated Occidental’s once-sacrosanct dividend—“the biggest and toughest decision that I made and I’ve ever made in my career,” she said in an interview.</p><p>Her 2019 acquisition of rival Anadarko Petroleum Corp., which Mr. Icahn called a “disaster,” has given Occidental the dominant position in the largest U.S. shale-oil field, the Permian Basin. Lifted by climbing oil prices, Occidental generated a record $4.35 billion in free cash flow and $3.7 billion in profit in the second quarter. It has cut its debt to $22 billion from nearly $36 billion a year ago.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/61847881fba325e1dc5c7ed3280e29db\" tg-width=\"1260\" tg-height=\"840\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/>Oil-and-gas producers have reported banner profits this year, even as a global energy crisis sparked by Russia’s invasion of Ukraine has threatened to derail European industries, left the U.K. facing its worst economic crisis since the 1970s and forced the Netherlands, Germany and India to rely heavily on coal to make up for a dearth of natural gas.</p><p>But Ms. Hollub, the first woman to be CEO of a major U.S. oil company, says she doesn’t feel vindicated. “I just feel relief,” she said. “There were a lot of doubters.”</p><p>Mr. Buffett has publicly lauded Ms. Hollub’s leadership. After she detailed the company’s future plans for analysts in February, Mr. Buffett told his own shareholders, “What Vicki Hollub was saying made nothing but sense.” Last month, Berkshire received regulatory approval to buy up to 50% of the oil company’s shares, spurring speculation it might seek to purchase all of Occidental.</p><p>Mr. Buffett declined to comment for this story. Ms. Hollub said she has “tremendous respect” for Mr. Buffett, adding that “he will be very beneficial for us as we go forward.” She declined to discuss the possibility of Berkshire purchasing the entire company.</p><p>Some former investors remain skeptical, saying a spike in oil prices has rescued the company, not Ms. Hollub.</p><p>“I have nothing personal against Vicki,” Mr. Icahn said in an interview. “However, that will never change my mind that she should not have made a bet-the-company investment by way of overpaying for Anadarko.”</p><p>A University of Alabama graduate, Ms. Hollub joined Occidental in 1982 and soon found herself running operations in Russia and Venezuela. She almost got laid off in 2003, butTodd Stevens, an executive at the company who had followed her rise, arranged for her to lead a team evaluating acreage in Colorado, said Mr. Stevens, who has since left.</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/bf58d7d767a23cfb352e019504bafa44\" tg-width=\"1260\" tg-height=\"840\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/><span>Equipment used to process carbon dioxide, crude oil and water at an Occidental Petroleum project in Hobbs, N.M.PHOTO:ERNEST SCHEYDER/REUTERS</span></p><p>Ms. Hollub became known as a hard worker, once spending three weeks straightening out operations at a new gas field’s first well, said Donnie Enns, a former geophysicist who worked under her. “Nobody worked harder than Vicki,” he said. She also found time to run an office March Madness basketball pool.</p><p>After being named CEO of the company in 2016, Ms. Hollub departed from her predecessor’s preference for low-risk, “bolt-on” transactions. A little over a year into the job, she started courting Anadarko, an oil producer of comparable size, for a deal.</p><p>She outflanked largerChevronCorp. in a bidding war that riveted the oil patch, offering $5 billion more than her rival for Anadarko and its prized assets in the epicenter of U.S. shale production. Yet victory came at a steep cost.</p><p>Some of Occidental’s largest shareholders decried the deal—especially a pricey loan from Mr. Buffett in the form of $10 billion in preferred stock paying 8% annually in dividends, or $800 million. Ms. Hollub negotiated the funding at the eleventh hour after meeting with the financier in Omaha, Neb. Mr. Icahn, who first bought stock as the Anadarko bidding war came to a close, wrote to Occidental shareholders that “Buffett figuratively took her to the cleaners.”</p><p>Ms. Hollub acknowledged the deal damaged the company’s standing with some investors. “I was never offended at the fact that our shareholders were skeptical,” she said.</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/58cf5cd81991220ec1f42821cee2554b\" tg-width=\"639\" tg-height=\"959\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/><span>Vicki Hollub said she never doubted the wisdom of the Anadarko acquisition.PHOTO:ANGELA OWENS/THE WALL STREET JOURNAL</span></p><p>But she said she never doubted the wisdom of the acquisition, even after it sparked an investor revolt that created an opportunity for Mr. Icahn.</p><p>Central to Ms. Hollub’s strategy was building on Occidental’s already-large position in the oil-rich Permian of West Texas and New Mexico. She believed purchasing and drilling a huge swath of new acreage, much of it near the company’s existing assets, would give Occidental economies of scale and allow it to outperform Permian rivals. Occidental, she said, was one of the most technologically advanced drillers in the field; it would turn Anadarko’s undeveloped assets into oil-gushing wells.</p><p>By the end of 2019, the oil producer said it was making progress on its merger goals. It had divested itself of more than $6 billion in assets, including stakes in a liquefied natural gas export project in Mozambique and in a Houston-based pipeline company. Occidental recorded single-day and monthly production records in the Permian and other oil fields. Occidental announced its 182nd consecutive quarterly dividend, which Ms. Hollub noted at the time that “few other companies can claim.”</p><p>Ms. Hollub believed the merger was on track, but investors remained skeptical. From the time of Occidental’s counteroffer for Anadarko in April 2019 to February 2020 Occidental’s stock fell around 35%. Then the global pandemic took hold.</p><p>As billions of people around the world began to lock down, demand for oil plummeted. In the spring, oil prices reached historic lows, briefly turning negative for the first time ever as traders paid counterparties to take oil off their hands. Falling demand for their product hammered oil-and-gas companies, forcing dozens into bankruptcy.</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9090db9eab1ac4c91bd5b1b441d26206\" tg-width=\"1260\" tg-height=\"840\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/><span>Gasoline prices sank in April 2020 after the global pandemic caused oil prices to drop below zero.PHOTO:FREDERIC J. BROWN/AGENCE FRANCE-PRESSE/GETTY IMAGES</span></p><p>Every day, Ms. Hollub would drive to Occidental’s Houston offices in her red Jeep Wrangler, said Glenn Vangolen, a former senior vice president at Occidental and close adviser to the CEO. Mondays and Fridays, she and her lieutenants would mask up and gather in a conference room to discuss operations. Her office was spartan—a mostly bare room, except for a TV playing business news on mute, and a plush stuffed version of a costumed elephant, the Alabama Crimson Tide’s mascot, Mr. Vangolen said.</p><p>Occidental was in a worse situation than many of its peers: At the end of 2019, its long-term debt of about $39 billion was equivalent to roughly four times its earnings, excluding interest, taxes and other accounting items, quadruple the ratio from a year earlier, S&amp;P Capital IQ data show. The divestitures it had planned on to pay it down were no longer viable as assets were losing value.</p><p>Ms. Hollub said that Occidental made a lot of the difficult decisions before the pandemic to mitigate the downside risks of the Anadarko acquisition, including hedging a portion of its oil production and bumping its line of credit to $5 billion. But the company still faced painful months ahead as it had barely enough cash on hand to meet debt maturities coming due in 2021 and was later forced to hire restructuring advisers.</p><p>Ms. Hollub moved to cut her executives’ salaries—including her own by 81%—offer employees voluntary buy-outs, slash expenses in the oil patch and cancel employee perks. She also cut the dividend, which rankled investors.</p><p>Mr. Icahn amplified his calls for Ms. Hollub’s ouster and said he would seek to replace the entire board of directors at the company’s annual meeting. As the oil producer’s stock plunged to under $10 from around $45 before the pandemic, Mr. Icahn—facing paper losses of about $1 billion—doubled down on his shares, boosting his stake to roughly 10% from about 2%.</p><p>After a price war between Russia and Saudi Arabia caused oil prices to plunge below $25 a barrel in March, Occidental reached a settlement with Mr. Icahn. The deal gave board seats to two of his deputies and added another director, required Occidental to create an oversight committee that must be informed of any offers to acquire the company or its assets, and replaced the board chairman withStephen Chazen, Ms. Hollub’s predecessor as CEO.</p><p>Mr. Icahn’s camp pushed for Occidental to give its shareholders warrants that could allow them to buy discounted shares in the future. After he prevailed, Mr. Icahn received roughly 11 million warrants initially and bought more when they were worth around $3.</p><p>Mr. Vangolen said Mr. Icahn’s demand for warrants was part of the investor’s “raider playbook,” which he described as “trying to extract as much cash out of the business as you can before you bail.”</p><p>Mr. Icahn said that all the shareholders who rode the stock down deserved something for their loyalty.</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3af2c050a88b00dd9846de958b65be1b\" tg-width=\"1260\" tg-height=\"840\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/><span>A crude oil pump jack in the Permian Basin in Loving County, Texas.PHOTO:ANGUS MORDANT/REUTERS</span></p><p>As the pandemic dragged on, Occidental logged a roughly $14.8 billion loss for 2020, its largest on record, according to S&amp;P Capital IQ data. Still, it continued to whittle down its mammoth debt, closing around $2.5 billion in asset sales at the end of 2020. Anadarko’s assets, meanwhile, were starting to shine, with production in the Permian reaching the high end of company estimates.</p><p>Even as Ms. Hollub wrestled with Mr. Icahn, she was building a relationship with Mr. Buffett.</p><p>In 2020, she traveled to Omaha to discuss Occidental&#39;s long-term strategy with Mr. Buffett, according to a person familiar with the meeting. The investor expressed a strong interest in the company&#39;s goal to become a leader in carbon capture, this person said.</p><p>Occidental says it has no plans to stop producing oil but also aims to be a leader in &#34;carbon management.&#34; It wants to develop 70 plants by 2035 to suck carbon dioxide out of the air, store it in the ground and sell carbon credits to businesses seeking to offset their own emissions -- a technology still in its commercial infancy that received a boost thanks to tax credits included in the climate package President Biden signed into law last month. The company also plans to use the gas to squeeze more oil from underground.</p><p>Then, in late February of this year, Russia invaded Ukraine.</p><p>The war propelled oil prices to their highest level in years, with Brent crude oil topping $120 in March, translating into a windfall for oil companies. In the first quarter of the year, Occidental made roughly $4.9 billion in profit, its highest quarterly earnings on record, according to S&amp;P Capital IQ.</p><p>The company now holds the most acreage across the Permian, with leases covering about 2.8 million net acres, according to data firm Enverus. Its domestic oil output in the second quarter of this year was up roughly 80% compared with before it acquired Anadarko, Occidental reported.</p><p>As Occidental&#39;s stock rose above $50 a share in March, Mr. Icahn sold his common stake. The investor&#39;s two representatives on Occidental&#39;s board also resigned, as was required by the settlement agreement. Mr. Icahn made over $1.5 billion on his investment and still holds some warrants, according to public filings and people familiar with the matter.</p><p>As Mr. Icahn got out of the stock, Mr. Buffett bought in. In May, Berkshire reported it had purchased roughly $8 billion worth of shares.</p><p>Mr. Icahn said that Mr. Buffett&#39;s investment could be ill-timed. &#34;I respect Buffett a lot but I think buying this stock at this level is obviously not like buying warrants at $3,&#34; he said. &#34;I made a great deal of money on my investment in Occidental, especially with the warrants, and activism worked in that regard,&#34; he said.</p><p>Ms. Hollub and Mr. Buffett have developed a personal relationship and the two talk periodically, said Mr. Vangolen. Ms. Hollub said in an interview she had no personal relationship with Mr. Icahn when he was an investor, and that he turned out not to be the kind of long-term shareholder the company prizes.</p><p>Mr. Icahn&#39;s retort: &#34;She came very close to not being a long-term shareholder also, because her ill-timed investment put the company on the brink of bankruptcy.&#34;</p></body></html>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>How a CEO Rescued a Big Bet on Big Oil; \"There Were a Lot of Doubters\"</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nHow a CEO Rescued a Big Bet on Big Oil; \"There Were a Lot of Doubters\"\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n<div class=\"head\" \">\n\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/150f88aa4d182df19190059f4a365e99);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">Dow Jones </p>\n<p class=\"h-time\">2022-09-11 09:57</p>\n</div>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<html><head></head><body><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/be5cb2e717152d9e61504d0803ac3654\" tg-width=\"1278\" tg-height=\"1278\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/>Occidental Petroleum Corp. entered the thick of the pandemic among the worst prepared of its U.S. oil-and-gas peers. Struggling with debt from an ill-timed $38 billion deal, Chief ExecutiveVicki Hollubwas fending off activist investorCarl Icahn, who controlled two board seats.</p><p>Two years later, the company has emerged as the top performer in the S&amp;P 500, and Ms. Hollub has traded Mr. Icahn, who sold all of his Occidental shares in March, for Warren Buffett, whoseBerkshire Hathaway Inc. now owns more than 20% of the company.</p><p>It was touch and go for a time. Months before the pandemic took hold, she implemented widespread layoffs. To stave off bankruptcy after oil prices collapsed in 2020, she slashed spending and nearly eliminated Occidental’s once-sacrosanct dividend—“the biggest and toughest decision that I made and I’ve ever made in my career,” she said in an interview.</p><p>Her 2019 acquisition of rival Anadarko Petroleum Corp., which Mr. Icahn called a “disaster,” has given Occidental the dominant position in the largest U.S. shale-oil field, the Permian Basin. Lifted by climbing oil prices, Occidental generated a record $4.35 billion in free cash flow and $3.7 billion in profit in the second quarter. It has cut its debt to $22 billion from nearly $36 billion a year ago.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/61847881fba325e1dc5c7ed3280e29db\" tg-width=\"1260\" tg-height=\"840\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/>Oil-and-gas producers have reported banner profits this year, even as a global energy crisis sparked by Russia’s invasion of Ukraine has threatened to derail European industries, left the U.K. facing its worst economic crisis since the 1970s and forced the Netherlands, Germany and India to rely heavily on coal to make up for a dearth of natural gas.</p><p>But Ms. Hollub, the first woman to be CEO of a major U.S. oil company, says she doesn’t feel vindicated. “I just feel relief,” she said. “There were a lot of doubters.”</p><p>Mr. Buffett has publicly lauded Ms. Hollub’s leadership. After she detailed the company’s future plans for analysts in February, Mr. Buffett told his own shareholders, “What Vicki Hollub was saying made nothing but sense.” Last month, Berkshire received regulatory approval to buy up to 50% of the oil company’s shares, spurring speculation it might seek to purchase all of Occidental.</p><p>Mr. Buffett declined to comment for this story. Ms. Hollub said she has “tremendous respect” for Mr. Buffett, adding that “he will be very beneficial for us as we go forward.” She declined to discuss the possibility of Berkshire purchasing the entire company.</p><p>Some former investors remain skeptical, saying a spike in oil prices has rescued the company, not Ms. Hollub.</p><p>“I have nothing personal against Vicki,” Mr. Icahn said in an interview. “However, that will never change my mind that she should not have made a bet-the-company investment by way of overpaying for Anadarko.”</p><p>A University of Alabama graduate, Ms. Hollub joined Occidental in 1982 and soon found herself running operations in Russia and Venezuela. She almost got laid off in 2003, butTodd Stevens, an executive at the company who had followed her rise, arranged for her to lead a team evaluating acreage in Colorado, said Mr. Stevens, who has since left.</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/bf58d7d767a23cfb352e019504bafa44\" tg-width=\"1260\" tg-height=\"840\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/><span>Equipment used to process carbon dioxide, crude oil and water at an Occidental Petroleum project in Hobbs, N.M.PHOTO:ERNEST SCHEYDER/REUTERS</span></p><p>Ms. Hollub became known as a hard worker, once spending three weeks straightening out operations at a new gas field’s first well, said Donnie Enns, a former geophysicist who worked under her. “Nobody worked harder than Vicki,” he said. She also found time to run an office March Madness basketball pool.</p><p>After being named CEO of the company in 2016, Ms. Hollub departed from her predecessor’s preference for low-risk, “bolt-on” transactions. A little over a year into the job, she started courting Anadarko, an oil producer of comparable size, for a deal.</p><p>She outflanked largerChevronCorp. in a bidding war that riveted the oil patch, offering $5 billion more than her rival for Anadarko and its prized assets in the epicenter of U.S. shale production. Yet victory came at a steep cost.</p><p>Some of Occidental’s largest shareholders decried the deal—especially a pricey loan from Mr. Buffett in the form of $10 billion in preferred stock paying 8% annually in dividends, or $800 million. Ms. Hollub negotiated the funding at the eleventh hour after meeting with the financier in Omaha, Neb. Mr. Icahn, who first bought stock as the Anadarko bidding war came to a close, wrote to Occidental shareholders that “Buffett figuratively took her to the cleaners.”</p><p>Ms. Hollub acknowledged the deal damaged the company’s standing with some investors. “I was never offended at the fact that our shareholders were skeptical,” she said.</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/58cf5cd81991220ec1f42821cee2554b\" tg-width=\"639\" tg-height=\"959\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/><span>Vicki Hollub said she never doubted the wisdom of the Anadarko acquisition.PHOTO:ANGELA OWENS/THE WALL STREET JOURNAL</span></p><p>But she said she never doubted the wisdom of the acquisition, even after it sparked an investor revolt that created an opportunity for Mr. Icahn.</p><p>Central to Ms. Hollub’s strategy was building on Occidental’s already-large position in the oil-rich Permian of West Texas and New Mexico. She believed purchasing and drilling a huge swath of new acreage, much of it near the company’s existing assets, would give Occidental economies of scale and allow it to outperform Permian rivals. Occidental, she said, was one of the most technologically advanced drillers in the field; it would turn Anadarko’s undeveloped assets into oil-gushing wells.</p><p>By the end of 2019, the oil producer said it was making progress on its merger goals. It had divested itself of more than $6 billion in assets, including stakes in a liquefied natural gas export project in Mozambique and in a Houston-based pipeline company. Occidental recorded single-day and monthly production records in the Permian and other oil fields. Occidental announced its 182nd consecutive quarterly dividend, which Ms. Hollub noted at the time that “few other companies can claim.”</p><p>Ms. Hollub believed the merger was on track, but investors remained skeptical. From the time of Occidental’s counteroffer for Anadarko in April 2019 to February 2020 Occidental’s stock fell around 35%. Then the global pandemic took hold.</p><p>As billions of people around the world began to lock down, demand for oil plummeted. In the spring, oil prices reached historic lows, briefly turning negative for the first time ever as traders paid counterparties to take oil off their hands. Falling demand for their product hammered oil-and-gas companies, forcing dozens into bankruptcy.</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9090db9eab1ac4c91bd5b1b441d26206\" tg-width=\"1260\" tg-height=\"840\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/><span>Gasoline prices sank in April 2020 after the global pandemic caused oil prices to drop below zero.PHOTO:FREDERIC J. BROWN/AGENCE FRANCE-PRESSE/GETTY IMAGES</span></p><p>Every day, Ms. Hollub would drive to Occidental’s Houston offices in her red Jeep Wrangler, said Glenn Vangolen, a former senior vice president at Occidental and close adviser to the CEO. Mondays and Fridays, she and her lieutenants would mask up and gather in a conference room to discuss operations. Her office was spartan—a mostly bare room, except for a TV playing business news on mute, and a plush stuffed version of a costumed elephant, the Alabama Crimson Tide’s mascot, Mr. Vangolen said.</p><p>Occidental was in a worse situation than many of its peers: At the end of 2019, its long-term debt of about $39 billion was equivalent to roughly four times its earnings, excluding interest, taxes and other accounting items, quadruple the ratio from a year earlier, S&amp;P Capital IQ data show. The divestitures it had planned on to pay it down were no longer viable as assets were losing value.</p><p>Ms. Hollub said that Occidental made a lot of the difficult decisions before the pandemic to mitigate the downside risks of the Anadarko acquisition, including hedging a portion of its oil production and bumping its line of credit to $5 billion. But the company still faced painful months ahead as it had barely enough cash on hand to meet debt maturities coming due in 2021 and was later forced to hire restructuring advisers.</p><p>Ms. Hollub moved to cut her executives’ salaries—including her own by 81%—offer employees voluntary buy-outs, slash expenses in the oil patch and cancel employee perks. She also cut the dividend, which rankled investors.</p><p>Mr. Icahn amplified his calls for Ms. Hollub’s ouster and said he would seek to replace the entire board of directors at the company’s annual meeting. As the oil producer’s stock plunged to under $10 from around $45 before the pandemic, Mr. Icahn—facing paper losses of about $1 billion—doubled down on his shares, boosting his stake to roughly 10% from about 2%.</p><p>After a price war between Russia and Saudi Arabia caused oil prices to plunge below $25 a barrel in March, Occidental reached a settlement with Mr. Icahn. The deal gave board seats to two of his deputies and added another director, required Occidental to create an oversight committee that must be informed of any offers to acquire the company or its assets, and replaced the board chairman withStephen Chazen, Ms. Hollub’s predecessor as CEO.</p><p>Mr. Icahn’s camp pushed for Occidental to give its shareholders warrants that could allow them to buy discounted shares in the future. After he prevailed, Mr. Icahn received roughly 11 million warrants initially and bought more when they were worth around $3.</p><p>Mr. Vangolen said Mr. Icahn’s demand for warrants was part of the investor’s “raider playbook,” which he described as “trying to extract as much cash out of the business as you can before you bail.”</p><p>Mr. Icahn said that all the shareholders who rode the stock down deserved something for their loyalty.</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3af2c050a88b00dd9846de958b65be1b\" tg-width=\"1260\" tg-height=\"840\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/><span>A crude oil pump jack in the Permian Basin in Loving County, Texas.PHOTO:ANGUS MORDANT/REUTERS</span></p><p>As the pandemic dragged on, Occidental logged a roughly $14.8 billion loss for 2020, its largest on record, according to S&amp;P Capital IQ data. Still, it continued to whittle down its mammoth debt, closing around $2.5 billion in asset sales at the end of 2020. Anadarko’s assets, meanwhile, were starting to shine, with production in the Permian reaching the high end of company estimates.</p><p>Even as Ms. Hollub wrestled with Mr. Icahn, she was building a relationship with Mr. Buffett.</p><p>In 2020, she traveled to Omaha to discuss Occidental&#39;s long-term strategy with Mr. Buffett, according to a person familiar with the meeting. The investor expressed a strong interest in the company&#39;s goal to become a leader in carbon capture, this person said.</p><p>Occidental says it has no plans to stop producing oil but also aims to be a leader in &#34;carbon management.&#34; It wants to develop 70 plants by 2035 to suck carbon dioxide out of the air, store it in the ground and sell carbon credits to businesses seeking to offset their own emissions -- a technology still in its commercial infancy that received a boost thanks to tax credits included in the climate package President Biden signed into law last month. The company also plans to use the gas to squeeze more oil from underground.</p><p>Then, in late February of this year, Russia invaded Ukraine.</p><p>The war propelled oil prices to their highest level in years, with Brent crude oil topping $120 in March, translating into a windfall for oil companies. In the first quarter of the year, Occidental made roughly $4.9 billion in profit, its highest quarterly earnings on record, according to S&amp;P Capital IQ.</p><p>The company now holds the most acreage across the Permian, with leases covering about 2.8 million net acres, according to data firm Enverus. Its domestic oil output in the second quarter of this year was up roughly 80% compared with before it acquired Anadarko, Occidental reported.</p><p>As Occidental&#39;s stock rose above $50 a share in March, Mr. Icahn sold his common stake. The investor&#39;s two representatives on Occidental&#39;s board also resigned, as was required by the settlement agreement. Mr. Icahn made over $1.5 billion on his investment and still holds some warrants, according to public filings and people familiar with the matter.</p><p>As Mr. Icahn got out of the stock, Mr. Buffett bought in. In May, Berkshire reported it had purchased roughly $8 billion worth of shares.</p><p>Mr. Icahn said that Mr. Buffett&#39;s investment could be ill-timed. &#34;I respect Buffett a lot but I think buying this stock at this level is obviously not like buying warrants at $3,&#34; he said. &#34;I made a great deal of money on my investment in Occidental, especially with the warrants, and activism worked in that regard,&#34; he said.</p><p>Ms. Hollub and Mr. Buffett have developed a personal relationship and the two talk periodically, said Mr. Vangolen. Ms. Hollub said in an interview she had no personal relationship with Mr. Icahn when he was an investor, and that he turned out not to be the kind of long-term shareholder the company prizes.</p><p>Mr. Icahn&#39;s retort: &#34;She came very close to not being a long-term shareholder also, because her ill-timed investment put the company on the brink of bankruptcy.&#34;</p></body></html>\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"BK4550":"红杉资本持仓","BK4201":"综合性石油与天然气企业","OXY":"西方石油","BK4534":"瑞士信贷持仓","BK4581":"高盛持仓","BK4533":"AQR资本管理(全球第二大对冲基金)","BRK.A":"伯克希尔","BRK.B":"伯克希尔B","BK4176":"多领域控股"},"source_url":"","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2266817381","content_text":"Occidental Petroleum Corp. entered the thick of the pandemic among the worst prepared of its U.S. oil-and-gas peers. Struggling with debt from an ill-timed $38 billion deal, Chief ExecutiveVicki Hollubwas fending off activist investorCarl Icahn, who controlled two board seats.Two years later, the company has emerged as the top performer in the S&P 500, and Ms. Hollub has traded Mr. Icahn, who sold all of his Occidental shares in March, for Warren Buffett, whoseBerkshire Hathaway Inc. now owns more than 20% of the company.It was touch and go for a time. Months before the pandemic took hold, she implemented widespread layoffs. To stave off bankruptcy after oil prices collapsed in 2020, she slashed spending and nearly eliminated Occidental’s once-sacrosanct dividend—“the biggest and toughest decision that I made and I’ve ever made in my career,” she said in an interview.Her 2019 acquisition of rival Anadarko Petroleum Corp., which Mr. Icahn called a “disaster,” has given Occidental the dominant position in the largest U.S. shale-oil field, the Permian Basin. Lifted by climbing oil prices, Occidental generated a record $4.35 billion in free cash flow and $3.7 billion in profit in the second quarter. It has cut its debt to $22 billion from nearly $36 billion a year ago.Oil-and-gas producers have reported banner profits this year, even as a global energy crisis sparked by Russia’s invasion of Ukraine has threatened to derail European industries, left the U.K. facing its worst economic crisis since the 1970s and forced the Netherlands, Germany and India to rely heavily on coal to make up for a dearth of natural gas.But Ms. Hollub, the first woman to be CEO of a major U.S. oil company, says she doesn’t feel vindicated. “I just feel relief,” she said. “There were a lot of doubters.”Mr. Buffett has publicly lauded Ms. Hollub’s leadership. After she detailed the company’s future plans for analysts in February, Mr. Buffett told his own shareholders, “What Vicki Hollub was saying made nothing but sense.” Last month, Berkshire received regulatory approval to buy up to 50% of the oil company’s shares, spurring speculation it might seek to purchase all of Occidental.Mr. Buffett declined to comment for this story. Ms. Hollub said she has “tremendous respect” for Mr. Buffett, adding that “he will be very beneficial for us as we go forward.” She declined to discuss the possibility of Berkshire purchasing the entire company.Some former investors remain skeptical, saying a spike in oil prices has rescued the company, not Ms. Hollub.“I have nothing personal against Vicki,” Mr. Icahn said in an interview. “However, that will never change my mind that she should not have made a bet-the-company investment by way of overpaying for Anadarko.”A University of Alabama graduate, Ms. Hollub joined Occidental in 1982 and soon found herself running operations in Russia and Venezuela. She almost got laid off in 2003, butTodd Stevens, an executive at the company who had followed her rise, arranged for her to lead a team evaluating acreage in Colorado, said Mr. Stevens, who has since left.Equipment used to process carbon dioxide, crude oil and water at an Occidental Petroleum project in Hobbs, N.M.PHOTO:ERNEST SCHEYDER/REUTERSMs. Hollub became known as a hard worker, once spending three weeks straightening out operations at a new gas field’s first well, said Donnie Enns, a former geophysicist who worked under her. “Nobody worked harder than Vicki,” he said. She also found time to run an office March Madness basketball pool.After being named CEO of the company in 2016, Ms. Hollub departed from her predecessor’s preference for low-risk, “bolt-on” transactions. A little over a year into the job, she started courting Anadarko, an oil producer of comparable size, for a deal.She outflanked largerChevronCorp. in a bidding war that riveted the oil patch, offering $5 billion more than her rival for Anadarko and its prized assets in the epicenter of U.S. shale production. Yet victory came at a steep cost.Some of Occidental’s largest shareholders decried the deal—especially a pricey loan from Mr. Buffett in the form of $10 billion in preferred stock paying 8% annually in dividends, or $800 million. Ms. Hollub negotiated the funding at the eleventh hour after meeting with the financier in Omaha, Neb. Mr. Icahn, who first bought stock as the Anadarko bidding war came to a close, wrote to Occidental shareholders that “Buffett figuratively took her to the cleaners.”Ms. Hollub acknowledged the deal damaged the company’s standing with some investors. “I was never offended at the fact that our shareholders were skeptical,” she said.Vicki Hollub said she never doubted the wisdom of the Anadarko acquisition.PHOTO:ANGELA OWENS/THE WALL STREET JOURNALBut she said she never doubted the wisdom of the acquisition, even after it sparked an investor revolt that created an opportunity for Mr. Icahn.Central to Ms. Hollub’s strategy was building on Occidental’s already-large position in the oil-rich Permian of West Texas and New Mexico. She believed purchasing and drilling a huge swath of new acreage, much of it near the company’s existing assets, would give Occidental economies of scale and allow it to outperform Permian rivals. Occidental, she said, was one of the most technologically advanced drillers in the field; it would turn Anadarko’s undeveloped assets into oil-gushing wells.By the end of 2019, the oil producer said it was making progress on its merger goals. It had divested itself of more than $6 billion in assets, including stakes in a liquefied natural gas export project in Mozambique and in a Houston-based pipeline company. Occidental recorded single-day and monthly production records in the Permian and other oil fields. Occidental announced its 182nd consecutive quarterly dividend, which Ms. Hollub noted at the time that “few other companies can claim.”Ms. Hollub believed the merger was on track, but investors remained skeptical. From the time of Occidental’s counteroffer for Anadarko in April 2019 to February 2020 Occidental’s stock fell around 35%. Then the global pandemic took hold.As billions of people around the world began to lock down, demand for oil plummeted. In the spring, oil prices reached historic lows, briefly turning negative for the first time ever as traders paid counterparties to take oil off their hands. Falling demand for their product hammered oil-and-gas companies, forcing dozens into bankruptcy.Gasoline prices sank in April 2020 after the global pandemic caused oil prices to drop below zero.PHOTO:FREDERIC J. BROWN/AGENCE FRANCE-PRESSE/GETTY IMAGESEvery day, Ms. Hollub would drive to Occidental’s Houston offices in her red Jeep Wrangler, said Glenn Vangolen, a former senior vice president at Occidental and close adviser to the CEO. Mondays and Fridays, she and her lieutenants would mask up and gather in a conference room to discuss operations. Her office was spartan—a mostly bare room, except for a TV playing business news on mute, and a plush stuffed version of a costumed elephant, the Alabama Crimson Tide’s mascot, Mr. Vangolen said.Occidental was in a worse situation than many of its peers: At the end of 2019, its long-term debt of about $39 billion was equivalent to roughly four times its earnings, excluding interest, taxes and other accounting items, quadruple the ratio from a year earlier, S&P Capital IQ data show. The divestitures it had planned on to pay it down were no longer viable as assets were losing value.Ms. Hollub said that Occidental made a lot of the difficult decisions before the pandemic to mitigate the downside risks of the Anadarko acquisition, including hedging a portion of its oil production and bumping its line of credit to $5 billion. But the company still faced painful months ahead as it had barely enough cash on hand to meet debt maturities coming due in 2021 and was later forced to hire restructuring advisers.Ms. Hollub moved to cut her executives’ salaries—including her own by 81%—offer employees voluntary buy-outs, slash expenses in the oil patch and cancel employee perks. She also cut the dividend, which rankled investors.Mr. Icahn amplified his calls for Ms. Hollub’s ouster and said he would seek to replace the entire board of directors at the company’s annual meeting. As the oil producer’s stock plunged to under $10 from around $45 before the pandemic, Mr. Icahn—facing paper losses of about $1 billion—doubled down on his shares, boosting his stake to roughly 10% from about 2%.After a price war between Russia and Saudi Arabia caused oil prices to plunge below $25 a barrel in March, Occidental reached a settlement with Mr. Icahn. The deal gave board seats to two of his deputies and added another director, required Occidental to create an oversight committee that must be informed of any offers to acquire the company or its assets, and replaced the board chairman withStephen Chazen, Ms. Hollub’s predecessor as CEO.Mr. Icahn’s camp pushed for Occidental to give its shareholders warrants that could allow them to buy discounted shares in the future. After he prevailed, Mr. Icahn received roughly 11 million warrants initially and bought more when they were worth around $3.Mr. Vangolen said Mr. Icahn’s demand for warrants was part of the investor’s “raider playbook,” which he described as “trying to extract as much cash out of the business as you can before you bail.”Mr. Icahn said that all the shareholders who rode the stock down deserved something for their loyalty.A crude oil pump jack in the Permian Basin in Loving County, Texas.PHOTO:ANGUS MORDANT/REUTERSAs the pandemic dragged on, Occidental logged a roughly $14.8 billion loss for 2020, its largest on record, according to S&P Capital IQ data. Still, it continued to whittle down its mammoth debt, closing around $2.5 billion in asset sales at the end of 2020. Anadarko’s assets, meanwhile, were starting to shine, with production in the Permian reaching the high end of company estimates.Even as Ms. Hollub wrestled with Mr. Icahn, she was building a relationship with Mr. Buffett.In 2020, she traveled to Omaha to discuss Occidental's long-term strategy with Mr. Buffett, according to a person familiar with the meeting. The investor expressed a strong interest in the company's goal to become a leader in carbon capture, this person said.Occidental says it has no plans to stop producing oil but also aims to be a leader in \"carbon management.\" It wants to develop 70 plants by 2035 to suck carbon dioxide out of the air, store it in the ground and sell carbon credits to businesses seeking to offset their own emissions -- a technology still in its commercial infancy that received a boost thanks to tax credits included in the climate package President Biden signed into law last month. The company also plans to use the gas to squeeze more oil from underground.Then, in late February of this year, Russia invaded Ukraine.The war propelled oil prices to their highest level in years, with Brent crude oil topping $120 in March, translating into a windfall for oil companies. In the first quarter of the year, Occidental made roughly $4.9 billion in profit, its highest quarterly earnings on record, according to S&P Capital IQ.The company now holds the most acreage across the Permian, with leases covering about 2.8 million net acres, according to data firm Enverus. Its domestic oil output in the second quarter of this year was up roughly 80% compared with before it acquired Anadarko, Occidental reported.As Occidental's stock rose above $50 a share in March, Mr. Icahn sold his common stake. The investor's two representatives on Occidental's board also resigned, as was required by the settlement agreement. Mr. Icahn made over $1.5 billion on his investment and still holds some warrants, according to public filings and people familiar with the matter.As Mr. Icahn got out of the stock, Mr. Buffett bought in. In May, Berkshire reported it had purchased roughly $8 billion worth of shares.Mr. Icahn said that Mr. Buffett's investment could be ill-timed. \"I respect Buffett a lot but I think buying this stock at this level is obviously not like buying warrants at $3,\" he said. \"I made a great deal of money on my investment in Occidental, especially with the warrants, and activism worked in that regard,\" he said.Ms. Hollub and Mr. Buffett have developed a personal relationship and the two talk periodically, said Mr. Vangolen. Ms. Hollub said in an interview she had no personal relationship with Mr. Icahn when he was an investor, and that he turned out not to be the kind of long-term shareholder the company prizes.Mr. Icahn's retort: \"She came very close to not being a long-term shareholder also, because her ill-timed investment put the company on the brink of bankruptcy.\"","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"OXY":0.9,"BRK.B":0.9,"BRK.A":0.68}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":752,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9992429809,"gmtCreate":1661356378903,"gmtModify":1676536502799,"author":{"id":"3581507356092469","authorId":"3581507356092469","name":"ZarNaing","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/79d952595eebae7246a8cf6ffc0054af","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3581507356092469","idStr":"3581507356092469"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Thanks","listText":"Thanks","text":"Thanks","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9992429809","repostId":"2261659155","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"2261659155","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1661352338,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/2261659155?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2022-08-24 22:45","market":"hk","language":"en","title":"Alibaba: Buy For The Next Decade","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2261659155","media":"Seeking Alpha","summary":"SummaryAlibaba is considerably undervalued, even with the risks involved.The value is there, and it'","content":"<html><head></head><body><p><b>Summary</b></p><ul><li>Alibaba is considerably undervalued, even with the risks involved.</li><li>The value is there, and it&#39;s remarkable. Alibaba achieved a GMV of $1.2 trillion in fiscal 2021, doubling Amazon.</li><li>Yet, Alibaba gets no respect, commanding a market cap of 1/6 of the American retail giants&#39;.</li><li>The delisting concerns appear exaggerated, and Alibaba&#39;s earnings forecasts could be at rock a bottom here.</li><li>As uncertainties fade, Alibaba should return to growth and improved profitability, driving its share price significantly higher in the coming years.</li></ul><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/349a5bf19a4fd08047fdb45cb2ec1bb8\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"720\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/><span>Robert Way</span></p><p>Finding dominant market-leading companies that offer substantial value and significant growth potential at reasonable valuations has not been easy lately. However, when considering a company to own for the next five to ten years, one name stands out above the rest, Alibaba (NYSE:BABA). I know Alibaba is a Chinese company. Currently, Chinese stocks are out of favor and are perceived as higher-risk investments. However, I cannot ignore how cheap Alibaba has become. While there is increased risk, there is also substantial reward potential. Investing would be easy if we knew where Alibaba&#39;s stock would be in five to ten years. However, Investing is complex, and the truth is that Alibaba could be at $500, or its stock may not be listed on U.S. stock exchanges several years from now. Nevertheless, delisting fears appear exaggerated, and Alibaba has become remarkably cheap considering its potential. Therefore, the company&#39;s stock could go much higher as it returns to growth, illustrating that it offers significant value to investors and uncertainties fade.</p><p><b>The Value Is There, And It&#39;s Remarkable</b></p><p>Alibaba&#39;s ecosystem brought in a staggering $1.2 trillion gross merchandise value (&#34;GMV&#34;) in fiscal 2021. Additionally, the company reported more than a billion annual active consumers (&#34;AACs&#34;) in fiscal 2021.</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/095b01d0839eb4c02594d7ed45fb67d7\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"364\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/><span>Alibaba GMV (alibabagroup.com )</span></p><p>In comparison, Amazon (AMZN) reported a GMV of $600 billion in 2021. This metric illustrates that the value of goods sold in 2021 (fiscal 2021 for Alibaba) was roughly double on Alibaba&#39;s platforms vs. Amazon&#39;s.</p><p><b>Alibaba GMV - Billions of Yuan (fiscal)</b></p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/39d08924723ff429f7e170dd467dbd8e\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"419\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/><span>BABA GMV (Statista.com)</span></p><p>We see the significant GMV growth continuing through fiscal 2022, implying that the company can continue expanding GMV and revenues as it advances. Moreover, as Alibaba&#39;s operations and revenues grow, it should become increasingly more profitable in the coming years.</p><p><b>Valuation - Alibaba Vs. Amazon</b></p><p>We discussed that Alibaba&#39;s GMV essentially doubled Amazon&#39;s in 2021. Despite this sales dynamic, Alibaba is valued at about $237 billion, while Amazon&#39;s market cap is around $1.4 trillion. Therefore, we see a massive disconnect in valuations here, as Alibaba&#39;s GMV was double Amazon&#39;s, but Amazon&#39;s market cap is nearly six times higher than Alibaba&#39;s. Going by this GMV to market cap valuation, we see that Amazon is valued at around 12 x Alibaba now. Looking at other valuation metrics, we see that Alibaba is dramatically undervalued.</p><p><b>EPS Estimates</b></p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0c37d53f755829928c520644537c749b\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"271\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/><span>EPS Estimates (SeekingAlpha.com )</span></p><p>We see that Alibaba is in a transitory phase of EPS decline. This year&#39;s EPS should come in at about $7.30, roughly a 7% YoY decline. We must consider that temporary earnings declines are typically the best periods to pick up company shares on the cheap, at a deep discount. Alibaba&#39;s share price is down by 72% from its all-time highs. As of writing this article, Alibaba is at about $90, putting its P/E ratio at just 12.3 times this year&#39;s consensus EPS estimates. However, we should see growth, and the company&#39;s substantial EPS potential makes this stock very cheap.</p><p>Also, we must consider that during an earnings decline phase, EPS estimates typically get brought down considerably, often by too much, overshooting on the downside. Therefore, there is a high probability that Alibaba can surpass current depressed EPS estimates and could report towards the higher end of the estimated fingers in future years. While consensus estimates are for about $10 for fiscal 2025, I believe Alibaba could report EPS closer to $12. Considering Alibaba&#39;s current stock price, the company may be trading at just 7.5 times forward (fiscal 2025) earnings now.</p><p><b>Growth Will Return</b></p><p><b>Revenue Estimates</b></p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0e525aa6ca15da9ee35e9ee3cba5f162\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"345\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/><span>Revenue estimates (SeekingAlpha.com )</span></p><p>Despite the slowdown to around 5-6% YoY revenue growth this year, sales growth should rebound to double-digits as the company advances. Consensus revenue estimates point to approximately $200 billion in fiscal 2027, but this figure may be lowballing Alibaba&#39;s potential. I suspect Alibaba&#39;s sales could hit about $230 billion in 2027, and the company may register approximately $300 billion in revenues by 2030.</p><p><b>The Downside Is Limited</b></p><p>The downside is probably quite limited now because of the negativity that&#39;s been priced into Alibaba over the last two years. We&#39;ve seen massive fines, government crackdowns, Ant IPO controversy, tensions between Jack Ma and Beijing, hedge fund blowups, a slowdown in China&#39;s economy, geopolitical pressures, and more. Alibaba&#39;s market cap has dwindled from nearly $1 trillion to only $237 billion. The company&#39;s P/E valuation has crashed from around 30 to just 12. Therefore, unless something unexpected and considerable transpires (black Swan event), the downside is probably limited now. And still, one uncertainty lurks in the minds of many market participants. Will Alibaba&#39;s stock get delisted?</p><p><b>The Probability Of Delisting Appears Low</b></p><p>Investing is a risk, in any case. We don&#39;t know if a company will report strong earnings, continue growing, or possibly go bankrupt much of the time. However, a recent phenomenon to grip markets is the fear of investing in Chinese stocks. Many Chinese companies were Wall St. darlings in the early and mid-2000s. Alibaba even posted the largest IPO in history for its time, raising a whopping $25 billion. However, much has changed in several years. Investors are no longer clamoring to get into Alibaba. They are running for the doors. So, what has changed?</p><p><b>Chinese Stocks: Out Of Favor - For Now</b></p><p>We&#39;ve seen a worsening in relations between the U.S. and China, economically, geopolitically, and generally. There have been questions regarding the accounting standards used in China. That is why the SEC recently put Alibaba on its HFCAA list. Being put on the SEC&#39;s HFCAA means that if the Chinese government does not permit American regulators to inspect the company&#39;s books within three years, its stock could be delisted from U.S. exchanges. It&#39;s fair to mention that essentially all Chinese companies are on the SEC&#39;s HFCAA list now. So, will all Chinese companies, including Alibaba, be delisted from U.S. stock exchanges? I believe not.</p><p>The debate over Chinese auditing firms has gone on for a long time. However, if more than <b>$1 trillion</b> worth of Chinese stocks get delisted from U.S. exchanges, Beijing has a lot to lose. </p><p>Additionally, it is not in the U.S.&#39;s interests to boot Chinese companies from its markets, as it would further erode relations. The U.S. and China are tremendous trading partners, with the U.S. importing far more than it exports to China. The U.S. exports roughly $11 billion of goods each month to China while importing $40-50 billion. Last year, the U.S.&#39;s trade deficit with China was more than $350 billion. At the current pace, this year&#39;s trade deficit with China should be about $400 billion. China is one of the U.S.&#39;s biggest trading partners and the U.S. imports more goods from China than from anyone (more than $500 billion in 2021). The U.S. benefits significantly from its trading relationship with China and is likelier to repair relations than ruin them over accounting concerns.</p><p><b>Bottom Line: Where Alibaba Could Be In Several Years</b></p><p>Let&#39;s put aside the delisting fears. Also, we should consider that much of the bad news is behind Alibaba and that brighter days are ahead. Moreover, current earnings and EPS estimates are probably around the bottom. Furthermore, Alibaba should return to growth and could achieve more robust revenue and EPS growth than most estimates are suggesting now. Therefore, we could see Alibaba&#39;s stock move a lot higher.</p><p><b>Here&#39;s where I see shares heading in the long run:</b></p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/93f94b0df9cc6e7a739bd7aeef4772c4\" tg-width=\"918\" tg-height=\"416\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/><span>Source: The Financial Prophet</span></p><p>Provided the depressed atmosphere surrounding Alibaba, current estimates may be on the low end of the spectrum. Therefore, Alibaba may achieve analysts&#39; higher-end revenue and EPS projections. Also, I am incorporating a gradual increase in Alibaba&#39;s P/E multiple. The company commanded a P/E ratio of 20-30 or higher in previous years. It may return to 20 (or higher) in the coming years as the uncertainty fades and the company returns to growth and increases profitability. Provided Alibaba achieves these estimates, its stock price could reach <b>$500</b> by 2030 or sooner.</p><p><b>Risks For Alibaba</b></p><p>While I&#39;m bullish on Alibaba, various factors could occur that may derail my bullish thesis for the company. For instance, the China could resume its tough stance and clamp down further on Alibaba and other Chinese tech giants. Moreover, despite the optimistic tone from Chinese authorities, U.S. regulators could still decide to delist Alibaba. Increased competition could impact Alibaba&#39;s growth and profits. The company&#39;s growth could be worse than my current anticipation. Also, Alibaba&#39;s profitability could continue to struggle for various reasons. This investment has numerous risks, and shares are very cheap right now. I believe Alibaba remains an elevated risk/high reward investment, and investors should carefully examine the risks before opening a position in Alibaba stock.</p><p><i>This article was written by Victor Dergunov</i></p></body></html>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Alibaba: Buy For The Next Decade</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nAlibaba: Buy For The Next Decade\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2022-08-24 22:45 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://seekingalpha.com/article/4536393-alibaba-buy-for-next-decade><strong>Seeking Alpha</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>SummaryAlibaba is considerably undervalued, even with the risks involved.The value is there, and it's remarkable. Alibaba achieved a GMV of $1.2 trillion in fiscal 2021, doubling Amazon.Yet, Alibaba ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4536393-alibaba-buy-for-next-decade\">Source Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"09988":"阿里巴巴-W","BABA":"阿里巴巴"},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4536393-alibaba-buy-for-next-decade","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2261659155","content_text":"SummaryAlibaba is considerably undervalued, even with the risks involved.The value is there, and it's remarkable. Alibaba achieved a GMV of $1.2 trillion in fiscal 2021, doubling Amazon.Yet, Alibaba gets no respect, commanding a market cap of 1/6 of the American retail giants'.The delisting concerns appear exaggerated, and Alibaba's earnings forecasts could be at rock a bottom here.As uncertainties fade, Alibaba should return to growth and improved profitability, driving its share price significantly higher in the coming years.Robert WayFinding dominant market-leading companies that offer substantial value and significant growth potential at reasonable valuations has not been easy lately. However, when considering a company to own for the next five to ten years, one name stands out above the rest, Alibaba (NYSE:BABA). I know Alibaba is a Chinese company. Currently, Chinese stocks are out of favor and are perceived as higher-risk investments. However, I cannot ignore how cheap Alibaba has become. While there is increased risk, there is also substantial reward potential. Investing would be easy if we knew where Alibaba's stock would be in five to ten years. However, Investing is complex, and the truth is that Alibaba could be at $500, or its stock may not be listed on U.S. stock exchanges several years from now. Nevertheless, delisting fears appear exaggerated, and Alibaba has become remarkably cheap considering its potential. Therefore, the company's stock could go much higher as it returns to growth, illustrating that it offers significant value to investors and uncertainties fade.The Value Is There, And It's RemarkableAlibaba's ecosystem brought in a staggering $1.2 trillion gross merchandise value (\"GMV\") in fiscal 2021. Additionally, the company reported more than a billion annual active consumers (\"AACs\") in fiscal 2021.Alibaba GMV (alibabagroup.com )In comparison, Amazon (AMZN) reported a GMV of $600 billion in 2021. This metric illustrates that the value of goods sold in 2021 (fiscal 2021 for Alibaba) was roughly double on Alibaba's platforms vs. Amazon's.Alibaba GMV - Billions of Yuan (fiscal)BABA GMV (Statista.com)We see the significant GMV growth continuing through fiscal 2022, implying that the company can continue expanding GMV and revenues as it advances. Moreover, as Alibaba's operations and revenues grow, it should become increasingly more profitable in the coming years.Valuation - Alibaba Vs. AmazonWe discussed that Alibaba's GMV essentially doubled Amazon's in 2021. Despite this sales dynamic, Alibaba is valued at about $237 billion, while Amazon's market cap is around $1.4 trillion. Therefore, we see a massive disconnect in valuations here, as Alibaba's GMV was double Amazon's, but Amazon's market cap is nearly six times higher than Alibaba's. Going by this GMV to market cap valuation, we see that Amazon is valued at around 12 x Alibaba now. Looking at other valuation metrics, we see that Alibaba is dramatically undervalued.EPS EstimatesEPS Estimates (SeekingAlpha.com )We see that Alibaba is in a transitory phase of EPS decline. This year's EPS should come in at about $7.30, roughly a 7% YoY decline. We must consider that temporary earnings declines are typically the best periods to pick up company shares on the cheap, at a deep discount. Alibaba's share price is down by 72% from its all-time highs. As of writing this article, Alibaba is at about $90, putting its P/E ratio at just 12.3 times this year's consensus EPS estimates. However, we should see growth, and the company's substantial EPS potential makes this stock very cheap.Also, we must consider that during an earnings decline phase, EPS estimates typically get brought down considerably, often by too much, overshooting on the downside. Therefore, there is a high probability that Alibaba can surpass current depressed EPS estimates and could report towards the higher end of the estimated fingers in future years. While consensus estimates are for about $10 for fiscal 2025, I believe Alibaba could report EPS closer to $12. Considering Alibaba's current stock price, the company may be trading at just 7.5 times forward (fiscal 2025) earnings now.Growth Will ReturnRevenue EstimatesRevenue estimates (SeekingAlpha.com )Despite the slowdown to around 5-6% YoY revenue growth this year, sales growth should rebound to double-digits as the company advances. Consensus revenue estimates point to approximately $200 billion in fiscal 2027, but this figure may be lowballing Alibaba's potential. I suspect Alibaba's sales could hit about $230 billion in 2027, and the company may register approximately $300 billion in revenues by 2030.The Downside Is LimitedThe downside is probably quite limited now because of the negativity that's been priced into Alibaba over the last two years. We've seen massive fines, government crackdowns, Ant IPO controversy, tensions between Jack Ma and Beijing, hedge fund blowups, a slowdown in China's economy, geopolitical pressures, and more. Alibaba's market cap has dwindled from nearly $1 trillion to only $237 billion. The company's P/E valuation has crashed from around 30 to just 12. Therefore, unless something unexpected and considerable transpires (black Swan event), the downside is probably limited now. And still, one uncertainty lurks in the minds of many market participants. Will Alibaba's stock get delisted?The Probability Of Delisting Appears LowInvesting is a risk, in any case. We don't know if a company will report strong earnings, continue growing, or possibly go bankrupt much of the time. However, a recent phenomenon to grip markets is the fear of investing in Chinese stocks. Many Chinese companies were Wall St. darlings in the early and mid-2000s. Alibaba even posted the largest IPO in history for its time, raising a whopping $25 billion. However, much has changed in several years. Investors are no longer clamoring to get into Alibaba. They are running for the doors. So, what has changed?Chinese Stocks: Out Of Favor - For NowWe've seen a worsening in relations between the U.S. and China, economically, geopolitically, and generally. There have been questions regarding the accounting standards used in China. That is why the SEC recently put Alibaba on its HFCAA list. Being put on the SEC's HFCAA means that if the Chinese government does not permit American regulators to inspect the company's books within three years, its stock could be delisted from U.S. exchanges. It's fair to mention that essentially all Chinese companies are on the SEC's HFCAA list now. So, will all Chinese companies, including Alibaba, be delisted from U.S. stock exchanges? I believe not.The debate over Chinese auditing firms has gone on for a long time. However, if more than $1 trillion worth of Chinese stocks get delisted from U.S. exchanges, Beijing has a lot to lose. Additionally, it is not in the U.S.'s interests to boot Chinese companies from its markets, as it would further erode relations. The U.S. and China are tremendous trading partners, with the U.S. importing far more than it exports to China. The U.S. exports roughly $11 billion of goods each month to China while importing $40-50 billion. Last year, the U.S.'s trade deficit with China was more than $350 billion. At the current pace, this year's trade deficit with China should be about $400 billion. China is one of the U.S.'s biggest trading partners and the U.S. imports more goods from China than from anyone (more than $500 billion in 2021). The U.S. benefits significantly from its trading relationship with China and is likelier to repair relations than ruin them over accounting concerns.Bottom Line: Where Alibaba Could Be In Several YearsLet's put aside the delisting fears. Also, we should consider that much of the bad news is behind Alibaba and that brighter days are ahead. Moreover, current earnings and EPS estimates are probably around the bottom. Furthermore, Alibaba should return to growth and could achieve more robust revenue and EPS growth than most estimates are suggesting now. Therefore, we could see Alibaba's stock move a lot higher.Here's where I see shares heading in the long run:Source: The Financial ProphetProvided the depressed atmosphere surrounding Alibaba, current estimates may be on the low end of the spectrum. Therefore, Alibaba may achieve analysts' higher-end revenue and EPS projections. Also, I am incorporating a gradual increase in Alibaba's P/E multiple. The company commanded a P/E ratio of 20-30 or higher in previous years. It may return to 20 (or higher) in the coming years as the uncertainty fades and the company returns to growth and increases profitability. Provided Alibaba achieves these estimates, its stock price could reach $500 by 2030 or sooner.Risks For AlibabaWhile I'm bullish on Alibaba, various factors could occur that may derail my bullish thesis for the company. For instance, the China could resume its tough stance and clamp down further on Alibaba and other Chinese tech giants. Moreover, despite the optimistic tone from Chinese authorities, U.S. regulators could still decide to delist Alibaba. Increased competition could impact Alibaba's growth and profits. The company's growth could be worse than my current anticipation. Also, Alibaba's profitability could continue to struggle for various reasons. This investment has numerous risks, and shares are very cheap right now. I believe Alibaba remains an elevated risk/high reward investment, and investors should carefully examine the risks before opening a position in Alibaba stock.This article was written by Victor Dergunov","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"09988":0.9,"BABA":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":807,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9966732663,"gmtCreate":1669641246152,"gmtModify":1676538217242,"author":{"id":"3581507356092469","authorId":"3581507356092469","name":"ZarNaing","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/79d952595eebae7246a8cf6ffc0054af","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3581507356092469","idStr":"3581507356092469"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/PYPL\">$PayPal(PYPL)$&nbsp;</a><v-v data-views=\"1\"></v-v>","listText":"<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/PYPL\">$PayPal(PYPL)$&nbsp;</a><v-v data-views=\"1\"></v-v>","text":"$PayPal(PYPL)$","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9966732663","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2706,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9989139405,"gmtCreate":1665936086307,"gmtModify":1676537680908,"author":{"id":"3581507356092469","authorId":"3581507356092469","name":"ZarNaing","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/79d952595eebae7246a8cf6ffc0054af","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3581507356092469","idStr":"3581507356092469"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/GRAB\">$Grab Holdings(GRAB)$</a><v-v data-views=\"1\"></v-v>","listText":"<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/GRAB\">$Grab Holdings(GRAB)$</a><v-v data-views=\"1\"></v-v>","text":"$Grab Holdings(GRAB)$","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9989139405","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":662,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0}],"lives":[]}