谷岳HZ personal page - To The Moon

谷岳HZ

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2022-03-02

Nice

Biden's State of the Union address: Will formulate a new plan to fight inflation, taking shipping as the knife

2022-03-10

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Is it a stop for commodities to refuel, or is it a historical top?

2022-02-07

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Big bargain hunting! 60 trillion yuan asset management giant new products launched and bought these stocks

2022-03-05

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Analysis | Non-agricultural performance is beautiful, does the Fed have to step up its horsepower to deal with inflation?

2022-02-08

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2022-04-06

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Fed meeting minutes strike, accelerating shrinking balance sheet is a certainty?

2022-03-20

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2022-03-11

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Break 7 and run 8? How long can U.S. inflation exceed market expectations?

2022-03-08

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2022-03-07

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Bank of America: Global Recession Next, Then QE5 Comes

2022-04-18

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This week's preview | Tesla and Netflix's financial reports are coming! Powell to Speak

2022-04-13

$Reliance Global Group, Inc.(RELI)$nice

2022-04-13

ni c

What Does U.S. Inflation 'Peak' Mean for Markets? Could be worse

2022-04-12

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2022-04-11

$奥罗拉大麻公司(ACB)$ba d

2022-04-11

$奥罗拉大麻公司(ACB)$ba d

2022-04-10

ba d

Crazy Lithium: 10x a Year, Who's Hyping?

2022-04-02

$哔哩哔哩(BILI)$nice

2022-03-16

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How do you view the current market? A drastic "paradigm shift"

2022-03-12

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Global attention! The Fed's "boots land" next week, will risk sentiment reverse?

Go to Tiger App to see more news

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href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/RELI\">$Reliance Global Group, Inc.(RELI)$</a>sell？","listText":"<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/RELI\">$Reliance Global Group, Inc.(RELI)$</a>sell？","text":"$Reliance Global Group, Inc.(RELI)$sell？","images":[{"img":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/8bda6c919011e8ab0cc1375b1a25f2cc","width":"640","height":"800"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9086638726","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2130,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9088564819,"gmtCreate":1650365931326,"gmtModify":1676534705818,"author":{"id":"3581647091503821","authorId":"3581647091503821","name":"谷岳HZ","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3581647091503821","authorIdStr":"3581647091503821"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a 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href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/EM\">$怪兽充电(EM)$</a>nice","listText":"<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/EM\">$怪兽充电(EM)$</a>nice","text":"$怪兽充电(EM)$nice","images":[{"img":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/1bb8d4cd4dcc8a327cc62f1903715653","width":"750","height":"1386"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9088564183","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2712,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9088565664,"gmtCreate":1650365838956,"gmtModify":1676534705786,"author":{"id":"3581647091503821","authorId":"3581647091503821","name":"谷岳HZ","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3581647091503821","authorIdStr":"3581647091503821"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"nice","listText":"nice","text":"nice","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9088565664","repostId":"1133635414","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1133635414","kind":"news","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"为用户提供金融资讯、行情、数据，旨在帮助投资者理解世界，做投资决策。","home_visible":1,"media_name":"老虎资讯综合","id":"102","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba"},"pubTimestamp":1650364528,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1133635414?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2022-04-19 18:35","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"Hasbro fell more than 2% premarket, first-quarter earnings per share missed market estimates","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1133635414","media":"老虎资讯综合","summary":"4月19日，孩之宝盘前发布财报，财报显示：一季度净营收11.6亿美元，市场预估11.5亿美元；一季度经调整后每股收益57美分，市场预估64美分。财报发布后，孩之宝盘前跌超2%。","content":"<p><html><head></head><body>On April 19, Hasbro released its financial report before the market opened. The financial report showed that the net revenue in the first quarter was US $1.16 billion, and the market estimated US $1.15 billion; Adjusted earnings per share in the first quarter were 57 cents, compared with market estimates of 64 cents.</p><p>After the financial report was released, Hasbro fell more than 2% before the market.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4a5a5936e34651e18a5c1db99e848749\" tg-width=\"529\" tg-height=\"472\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p></body></html></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Hasbro fell more than 2% premarket, first-quarter earnings per share missed market estimates</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nHasbro fell more than 2% premarket, first-quarter earnings per share missed market estimates\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/102\">\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">老虎资讯综合 </p>\n<p class=\"h-time smaller\">2022-04-19 18:35</p>\n</div>\n</a>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><html><head></head><body>On April 19, Hasbro released its financial report before the market opened. The financial report showed that the net revenue in the first quarter was US $1.16 billion, and the market estimated US $1.15 billion; Adjusted earnings per share in the first quarter were 57 cents, compared with market estimates of 64 cents.</p><p>After the financial report was released, Hasbro fell more than 2% before the market.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4a5a5936e34651e18a5c1db99e848749\" tg-width=\"529\" tg-height=\"472\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p></body></html></p>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/07599f4cd00579441137d14acdedbecc","relate_stocks":{"HAS":"孩之宝"},"source_url":"","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1133635414","content_text":"4月19日，孩之宝盘前发布财报，财报显示：一季度净营收11.6亿美元，市场预估11.5亿美元；一季度经调整后每股收益57美分，市场预估64美分。财报发布后，孩之宝盘前跌超2%。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"HAS":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2322,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9088045850,"gmtCreate":1650294090454,"gmtModify":1676534688901,"author":{"id":"3581647091503821","authorId":"3581647091503821","name":"谷岳HZ","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3581647091503821","authorIdStr":"3581647091503821"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"bad.....","listText":"bad.....","text":"bad.....","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9088045850","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2175,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9088041764,"gmtCreate":1650293874820,"gmtModify":1676534688831,"author":{"id":"3581647091503821","authorId":"3581647091503821","name":"谷岳HZ","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3581647091503821","authorIdStr":"3581647091503821"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"nice","listText":"nice","text":"nice","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9088041764","repostId":"9016476123","repostType":1,"repost":{"id":9016476123,"gmtCreate":1649229403658,"gmtModify":1676534474180,"author":{"id":"3527667667103859","authorId":"3527667667103859","name":"TigerEvents","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/c266ef25181ace18bec1262357bbe1a8","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3527667667103859","authorIdStr":"3527667667103859"},"themes":[],"title":"🏆【GAME】Hunting Eggs for Extra Saving!","htmlText":"Tiger has prepared some Easter gifts for you, please&nbsp;<a href=\"https://www.tigerbrokers.com.sg/activity/market/2022/easter/\" target=\"_blank\">click&nbsp;here</a>&nbsp;to check them out!Easter can still be a bonus-boosting. Come and find the eggs in our Easter game to open the surprise! Each game contains 3 rounds, the more eggs you catch, the higher the points you can get. Game points can be redeemed for various rewards, including different value stock vouchers worth up to USD 1,000 are waiting for you! Moreover, catching special eggs can get extra points and chances to crack open for some wonderful Easter treats.There are too many hidden surprises to find, oops, the game attempts run out too fast. Don't worry, complete different tasks to earn more game attempts. Also, invite your frien","listText":"Tiger has prepared some Easter gifts for you, please&nbsp;<a href=\"https://www.tigerbrokers.com.sg/activity/market/2022/easter/\" target=\"_blank\">click&nbsp;here</a>&nbsp;to check them out!Easter can still be a bonus-boosting. Come and find the eggs in our Easter game to open the surprise! Each game contains 3 rounds, the more eggs you catch, the higher the points you can get. Game points can be redeemed for various rewards, including different value stock vouchers worth up to USD 1,000 are waiting for you! Moreover, catching special eggs can get extra points and chances to crack open for some wonderful Easter treats.There are too many hidden surprises to find, oops, the game attempts run out too fast. Don't worry, complete different tasks to earn more game attempts. Also, invite your frien","text":"Tiger has prepared some Easter gifts for you, please click here to check them out!Easter can still be a bonus-boosting. Come and find the eggs in our Easter game to open the surprise! Each game contains 3 rounds, the more eggs you catch, the higher the points you can get. Game points can be redeemed for various rewards, including different value stock vouchers worth up to USD 1,000 are waiting for you! Moreover, catching special eggs can get extra points and chances to crack open for some wonderful Easter treats.There are too many hidden surprises to find, oops, the game attempts run out too fast. Don't worry, complete different tasks to earn more game attempts. Also, invite your frien","images":[{"img":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/15b435c0d10e0e89ad3e06b7bbd04830","width":"2251","height":"1334"},{"img":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/ff9640a9df2f24446e07b7a9b658cb4b","width":"1200","height":"630"},{"img":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/795038848b7c7b1d7dda27d92b580946","width":"1656","height":"948"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":2,"paper":2,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9016476123","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":0,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":3,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2043,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9081599686,"gmtCreate":1650249847766,"gmtModify":1676534679092,"author":{"id":"3581647091503821","authorId":"3581647091503821","name":"谷岳HZ","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3581647091503821","authorIdStr":"3581647091503821"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/BILI\">$哔哩哔哩(BILI)$</a>nice","listText":"<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/BILI\">$哔哩哔哩(BILI)$</a>nice","text":"$哔哩哔哩(BILI)$nice","images":[{"img":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/cf439e5945420aafe3128f72405bde36","width":"750","height":"1454"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9081599686","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2089,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9081590611,"gmtCreate":1650249796514,"gmtModify":1676534679070,"author":{"id":"3581647091503821","authorId":"3581647091503821","name":"谷岳HZ","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3581647091503821","authorIdStr":"3581647091503821"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/BILI\">$哔哩哔哩(BILI)$</a>nice","listText":"<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/BILI\">$哔哩哔哩(BILI)$</a>nice","text":"$哔哩哔哩(BILI)$nice","images":[{"img":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/f27e4f010c44f1b27dabbad9e0023e7c","width":"640","height":"800"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9081590611","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":733,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9081507526,"gmtCreate":1650249740420,"gmtModify":1676534679052,"author":{"id":"3581647091503821","authorId":"3581647091503821","name":"谷岳HZ","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3581647091503821","authorIdStr":"3581647091503821"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"nice","listText":"nice","text":"nice","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9081507526","repostId":"2227075426","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"2227075426","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1650240226,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/2227075426?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2022-04-18 08:03","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"Optimistic about the low valuation of Hong Kong stocks! Qiu Dongrong maintained high position operation in the first quarter","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2227075426","media":"媒体滚动","summary":"丘栋荣一季度维持高仓位运作，买入美团－W等港股基金一季报持续披露，丘栋荣管理的4只产品的一季度持仓也纷纷出炉。大举买入美团－W等港股从丘栋荣管理的4只产品的一季报来看，4只基金依然维持了高仓位运作，其中中庚价值领航混合、中庚小盘价值股票、中庚价值品质一年持有期混合的股票仓位，占基金总资产的比例分别为93.34%、92.59%和93.04%，中庚价值灵动灵活配置混合的股票仓位占基金总资产的比例为89.13%。","content":"<p><html><head></head><body>Optimistic about the low valuation of Hong Kong stocks! Qiu Dongrong maintained a high position operation in the first quarter and bought Hong Kong stocks such as Meituan-W</p><p>The fund's first quarterly report continued to disclose, and the first quarter positions of the four products managed by Qiu Dongrong were also released.</p><p>The reporter noticed that in the first quarter, Qiu Dongrong continued to maintain high position operations, and made some position adjustments and share exchanges, such as Zhonggeng Value Pilot Mixed buying Hong Kong stocks such as Meituan-W on a large scale; In terms of small-cap value of Zhonggeng,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/600123\">Orchid Science and Technology</a>It is no longer among the top ten heavyweight stocks.</p><p>Buying Hong Kong stocks such as Meituan-W on a large scale</p><p>Judging from the quarterly reports of the four products managed by Qiu Dongrong, the four funds still maintain high position operations. Among them, the stock positions of Zhonggeng Value Pilot Mixed, Zhonggeng Small Cap Value Stocks, and Zhonggeng Value Quality One-year Holding Period Mixed accounted for 93.34%, 92.59% and 93.04% of the total assets of the fund respectively, and the stock positions of Zhonggeng Value Smart and Flexible Allocation Mixed accounted for 89.13% of the total assets of the fund.</p><p>In terms of the top ten heavyweight stocks, the top ten heavyweight stocks of Zhonggeng Value Pilot Mix are Meituan-W,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/01378\">China Hongqiao</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/00883\">CNOOC</a>Kuaishou-W,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/000830\">Luxi Chemical</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/601128\">Changshu Bank</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/00688\">China Overseas LOI</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/603323\">Sunon Bank</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/600383\">Gemdale Group</a>And<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/603368\">Liuyao shares</a>。</p><p>It can be seen that half of the stocks are Hong Kong stocks. The biggest change is that Meituan-W has become the largest holding stock, and it did not hold shares at the end of last year, which is a large-scale purchase in the first quarter of this year. In addition, Kuaishou-W held 1.2883 million shares as of the end of last year, and 9.355 million shares at the end of the first quarter of this year, which is also a large increase in positions.</p><p>Also heavily held in the Hong Kong stock market is Zhonggeng Value Quality One-year Holding Period Mixed. The top ten heavily held stocks are Meituan-W, CNOOC, Luxi Chemical, China Hongqiao, Changshu Bank, China Overseas Development, Kuaishou-W, Sunong Bank,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/601677\">Mingtai Aluminum</a>And Liuyao Co., Ltd. Overall, the positions mixed with Zhonggeng Value Pilot are very similar.</p><p>Among them, Meituan-W is also newly entered the top ten and has become the largest holding stock, while Kuaishou-W has increased its position from 1.9354 million shares at the end of last year to 5.0404 million shares.</p><p>Qiu Dongrong said in the first quarterly report: \"After continuous adjustment of the valuation of Hong Kong stocks, the price is low or the price is thoroughly cleared, and the overall valuation level of Hong Kong stocks is at an absolute low level. The value stocks of Hong Kong stocks are cheaper than the corresponding A-shares, and the corresponding dividend yield is more attractive. Growth stocks represented by the Internet, technology and medicine have also fallen back to a quite attractive level. Many constituent stocks in the Hang Seng Technology Index are more than 80% of pullback/retracement.</p><p>Specific to Internet companies in Hong Kong stocks, Qiu Dongrong further analyzed: \"First, the businesses of these companies are deeply embedded in the Chinese economy, and the core needs they face are constantly growing, such as entertainment, consumption, social networking, etc. At the same time, these companies' monetization capabilities and monetization capabilities continue to improve; Second, regulatory policies restrict the excessive expansion of the industry and limit the capital expenditures of these companies, especially cross-domain and cross-industry capital expenditures. Third, due to the decline in valuations, from expansion under the background of high valuations to contraction under the background of low valuations, leading companies have shifted from large capital expenditures and investment cash outflows to positive operating cash flows. On the contrary, the return on investment is expected to increase significantly. \"</p><p>Orchid Science and Technology withdraws from the top ten</p><p>In addition to this fund, in terms of other funds, there are also obvious positions and share exchanges. For example, in terms of the small-cap value of Zhonggeng, Orchid Science and Technology, the largest holding stock at the end of last year, was no longer in the top ten list at the end of the first quarter. In addition,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/603518\">Jinhong Group</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/600742\">FAW Fuwei</a>They have also withdrawn from the top ten. The newly entered the top ten are Luxi Chemical,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/600501\">Aerospace morning light</a>And Changshu Bank.</p><p>In terms of the smart and flexible allocation mix of Zhonggeng value, Orchid Science and Technology, the largest holding stock at the end of last year, was also not in the top ten list as of the end of the first quarter of this year. In addition,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/603558\">Jiansheng Group</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/601225\">Shaanxi coal industry</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/002111\">Weihai Guangtai</a>They have also withdrawn from the top ten. The newly entered the top ten are Luxi Chemical,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/002034\">Wangneng Environment</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/603809\">Haoneng shares</a>And<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/603600\">Yongyi Shares</a>。</p><p>In the first quarterly report, Qiu Dongrong also talked about his views on the A-share industry and individual stock style. For example, in terms of manufacturing, he said: \"There is still great potential to explore cost-effective companies in the broad manufacturing industry. We adhere to three standards, namely, demand growth, supply contraction, and leaders in sub-industries, such as chemical industry, light industry, non-ferrous metal processing, mechanical processing, etc., and can dig out real low-valuation small-cap value stocks.\"</p><p>In terms of finance and real estate among large-cap value stocks, Qiu Dongrong believes that the allocation logic lies in: \"In the financial sector, we are optimistic about regional banking stocks that are related to the manufacturing industry chain, serve the real economy, and have unique competitive advantages. Such banking businesses are relatively simple and have limited exposure to real estate risks, showing the characteristics of stable operations, low fundamental risks, extremely low valuations, and high growth. Real estate companies focus on leading central enterprise companies with the advantages of high credit and low financing cost. These companies will be the beneficiaries after this round of risks. We believe that the long-term demand for real estate is still there, and it is also an integral part of steady growth in the short and medium term. With the adjustment of real estate policies and the support of financial resources, systemic risks will decrease. Such companies have stronger anti-risk ability, high possibility of extension expansion, and valuations Under extremely low conditions, after the real estate market stabilizes in the future, there will still be good return potential. \"</p><p>For small and medium-cap energy and resource companies with low valuations. Qiu Dongrong believes that the logic of allocation mainly lies in: \"First, the medium and long-term demand is still stable and continues to grow; Second, the long-term capital expenditure level of many resource and energy companies at home and abroad is not high. From the perspective of market pricing and valuation, such companies are regarded as cyclical assets with extremely low valuations, good cash flow, low capital expenditures, high dividend yields, and high expected returns corresponding to current prices; Third, due to China's rich coal resource endowment and government regulation, the unit calorific value of coal still has significant advantages compared with overseas oil and gas. Against this background, the domestic prices of domestic enterprises in related downstream industries are relatively safe, the global competitiveness and cost advantages at the operating level have been improved, and the excess profits in the corresponding links have been sustainable. Therefore, we have increased the allocation of companies with more advantages in energy utilization, such as electrolytic aluminum and coal chemicals. \"</p><p>In addition, in terms of other small and medium-cap value stocks and growth stocks. Qiu Dongrong mainly mentioned two directions. \"First, some small-cap value stocks in traditional low-valuation industries such as public utilities and environmental protection have extremely low valuations, long risk release time and very high cost performance; Second, some small and medium-cap growth stocks in growth-oriented industries such as computers, media, electronics, auto parts and high-end manufacturing have been greatly adjusted, and their valuations have dropped to a low position in historical valuations.</p><p></body></html></p>","source":"sina_symbol","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Optimistic about the low valuation of Hong Kong stocks! Qiu Dongrong maintained high position operation in the first quarter</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nOptimistic about the low valuation of Hong Kong stocks! Qiu Dongrong maintained high position operation in the first quarter\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">媒体滚动</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2022-04-18 08:03</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><html><head></head><body>Optimistic about the low valuation of Hong Kong stocks! Qiu Dongrong maintained a high position operation in the first quarter and bought Hong Kong stocks such as Meituan-W</p><p>The fund's first quarterly report continued to disclose, and the first quarter positions of the four products managed by Qiu Dongrong were also released.</p><p>The reporter noticed that in the first quarter, Qiu Dongrong continued to maintain high position operations, and made some position adjustments and share exchanges, such as Zhonggeng Value Pilot Mixed buying Hong Kong stocks such as Meituan-W on a large scale; In terms of small-cap value of Zhonggeng,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/600123\">Orchid Science and Technology</a>It is no longer among the top ten heavyweight stocks.</p><p>Buying Hong Kong stocks such as Meituan-W on a large scale</p><p>Judging from the quarterly reports of the four products managed by Qiu Dongrong, the four funds still maintain high position operations. Among them, the stock positions of Zhonggeng Value Pilot Mixed, Zhonggeng Small Cap Value Stocks, and Zhonggeng Value Quality One-year Holding Period Mixed accounted for 93.34%, 92.59% and 93.04% of the total assets of the fund respectively, and the stock positions of Zhonggeng Value Smart and Flexible Allocation Mixed accounted for 89.13% of the total assets of the fund.</p><p>In terms of the top ten heavyweight stocks, the top ten heavyweight stocks of Zhonggeng Value Pilot Mix are Meituan-W,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/01378\">China Hongqiao</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/00883\">CNOOC</a>Kuaishou-W,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/000830\">Luxi Chemical</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/601128\">Changshu Bank</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/00688\">China Overseas LOI</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/603323\">Sunon Bank</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/600383\">Gemdale Group</a>And<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/603368\">Liuyao shares</a>。</p><p>It can be seen that half of the stocks are Hong Kong stocks. The biggest change is that Meituan-W has become the largest holding stock, and it did not hold shares at the end of last year, which is a large-scale purchase in the first quarter of this year. In addition, Kuaishou-W held 1.2883 million shares as of the end of last year, and 9.355 million shares at the end of the first quarter of this year, which is also a large increase in positions.</p><p>Also heavily held in the Hong Kong stock market is Zhonggeng Value Quality One-year Holding Period Mixed. The top ten heavily held stocks are Meituan-W, CNOOC, Luxi Chemical, China Hongqiao, Changshu Bank, China Overseas Development, Kuaishou-W, Sunong Bank,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/601677\">Mingtai Aluminum</a>And Liuyao Co., Ltd. Overall, the positions mixed with Zhonggeng Value Pilot are very similar.</p><p>Among them, Meituan-W is also newly entered the top ten and has become the largest holding stock, while Kuaishou-W has increased its position from 1.9354 million shares at the end of last year to 5.0404 million shares.</p><p>Qiu Dongrong said in the first quarterly report: \"After continuous adjustment of the valuation of Hong Kong stocks, the price is low or the price is thoroughly cleared, and the overall valuation level of Hong Kong stocks is at an absolute low level. The value stocks of Hong Kong stocks are cheaper than the corresponding A-shares, and the corresponding dividend yield is more attractive. Growth stocks represented by the Internet, technology and medicine have also fallen back to a quite attractive level. Many constituent stocks in the Hang Seng Technology Index are more than 80% of pullback/retracement.</p><p>Specific to Internet companies in Hong Kong stocks, Qiu Dongrong further analyzed: \"First, the businesses of these companies are deeply embedded in the Chinese economy, and the core needs they face are constantly growing, such as entertainment, consumption, social networking, etc. At the same time, these companies' monetization capabilities and monetization capabilities continue to improve; Second, regulatory policies restrict the excessive expansion of the industry and limit the capital expenditures of these companies, especially cross-domain and cross-industry capital expenditures. Third, due to the decline in valuations, from expansion under the background of high valuations to contraction under the background of low valuations, leading companies have shifted from large capital expenditures and investment cash outflows to positive operating cash flows. On the contrary, the return on investment is expected to increase significantly. \"</p><p>Orchid Science and Technology withdraws from the top ten</p><p>In addition to this fund, in terms of other funds, there are also obvious positions and share exchanges. For example, in terms of the small-cap value of Zhonggeng, Orchid Science and Technology, the largest holding stock at the end of last year, was no longer in the top ten list at the end of the first quarter. In addition,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/603518\">Jinhong Group</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/600742\">FAW Fuwei</a>They have also withdrawn from the top ten. The newly entered the top ten are Luxi Chemical,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/600501\">Aerospace morning light</a>And Changshu Bank.</p><p>In terms of the smart and flexible allocation mix of Zhonggeng value, Orchid Science and Technology, the largest holding stock at the end of last year, was also not in the top ten list as of the end of the first quarter of this year. In addition,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/603558\">Jiansheng Group</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/601225\">Shaanxi coal industry</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/002111\">Weihai Guangtai</a>They have also withdrawn from the top ten. The newly entered the top ten are Luxi Chemical,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/002034\">Wangneng Environment</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/603809\">Haoneng shares</a>And<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/603600\">Yongyi Shares</a>。</p><p>In the first quarterly report, Qiu Dongrong also talked about his views on the A-share industry and individual stock style. For example, in terms of manufacturing, he said: \"There is still great potential to explore cost-effective companies in the broad manufacturing industry. We adhere to three standards, namely, demand growth, supply contraction, and leaders in sub-industries, such as chemical industry, light industry, non-ferrous metal processing, mechanical processing, etc., and can dig out real low-valuation small-cap value stocks.\"</p><p>In terms of finance and real estate among large-cap value stocks, Qiu Dongrong believes that the allocation logic lies in: \"In the financial sector, we are optimistic about regional banking stocks that are related to the manufacturing industry chain, serve the real economy, and have unique competitive advantages. Such banking businesses are relatively simple and have limited exposure to real estate risks, showing the characteristics of stable operations, low fundamental risks, extremely low valuations, and high growth. Real estate companies focus on leading central enterprise companies with the advantages of high credit and low financing cost. These companies will be the beneficiaries after this round of risks. We believe that the long-term demand for real estate is still there, and it is also an integral part of steady growth in the short and medium term. With the adjustment of real estate policies and the support of financial resources, systemic risks will decrease. Such companies have stronger anti-risk ability, high possibility of extension expansion, and valuations Under extremely low conditions, after the real estate market stabilizes in the future, there will still be good return potential. \"</p><p>For small and medium-cap energy and resource companies with low valuations. Qiu Dongrong believes that the logic of allocation mainly lies in: \"First, the medium and long-term demand is still stable and continues to grow; Second, the long-term capital expenditure level of many resource and energy companies at home and abroad is not high. From the perspective of market pricing and valuation, such companies are regarded as cyclical assets with extremely low valuations, good cash flow, low capital expenditures, high dividend yields, and high expected returns corresponding to current prices; Third, due to China's rich coal resource endowment and government regulation, the unit calorific value of coal still has significant advantages compared with overseas oil and gas. Against this background, the domestic prices of domestic enterprises in related downstream industries are relatively safe, the global competitiveness and cost advantages at the operating level have been improved, and the excess profits in the corresponding links have been sustainable. Therefore, we have increased the allocation of companies with more advantages in energy utilization, such as electrolytic aluminum and coal chemicals. \"</p><p>In addition, in terms of other small and medium-cap value stocks and growth stocks. Qiu Dongrong mainly mentioned two directions. \"First, some small-cap value stocks in traditional low-valuation industries such as public utilities and environmental protection have extremely low valuations, long risk release time and very high cost performance; Second, some small and medium-cap growth stocks in growth-oriented industries such as computers, media, electronics, auto parts and high-end manufacturing have been greatly adjusted, and their valuations have dropped to a low position in historical valuations.</p><p></body></html></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> source：<a href=\"https://cj.sina.cn/article/normal_detail?url=https://finance.sina.com.cn/jjxw/2022-04-15/doc-imcwipii4449507.shtml\">媒体滚动</a></p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8efc57f52a2a39a79594580845cac4dc","relate_stocks":{"BK1575":"同股不同权","01024":"快手-W","HSTECH":"恒生科技指数","BK1583":"高瓴概念","BK1590":"短视频概念股","BK1142":"互联网与直销零售","03690":"美团-W","BK1589":"北水核心资产","BK1604":"节假日概念","QNETCN":"纳斯达克中美互联网老虎指数","BK1521":"挪威政府全球养老基金持仓","BK1608":"元宇宙概念","HSI":"恒生指数","BK1591":"就地过年概念","BK1095":"互动媒体与服务"},"source_url":"https://cj.sina.cn/article/normal_detail?url=https://finance.sina.com.cn/jjxw/2022-04-15/doc-imcwipii4449507.shtml","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2227075426","content_text":"看好港股低估值！丘栋荣一季度维持高仓位运作，买入美团－W等港股基金一季报持续披露，丘栋荣管理的4只产品的一季度持仓也纷纷出炉。记者注意到，在一季度，丘栋荣继续维持高仓位运作，并且进行了一些调仓换股，比如中庚价值领航混合大举买入美团－W等港股；在中庚小盘价值上，兰花科创已经不在前十大重仓股中。大举买入美团－W等港股从丘栋荣管理的4只产品的一季报来看，4只基金依然维持了高仓位运作，其中中庚价值领航混合、中庚小盘价值股票、中庚价值品质一年持有期混合的股票仓位，占基金总资产的比例分别为93.34%、92.59%和93.04%，中庚价值灵动灵活配置混合的股票仓位占基金总资产的比例为89.13%。在前十大重仓股方面，中庚价值领航混合的前十大重仓股分别为美团－W、中国宏桥、中国海洋石油、快手－W、鲁西化工、常熟银行、中国海外发展、苏农银行、金地集团和柳药股份。可以看到，其中有一半的个股都是港股，最大的变化就是美团－W成为了第一大重仓股，并且在去年底并未持股，属于今年一季度大举买入。另外，快手－W截至去年底的持股数是128.83万股，今年一季度末的持股数为935.5万股，也是大举加仓。同样重仓港股市场的还有中庚价值品质一年持有期混合，前十大重仓股分别为美团－W、中国海洋石油、鲁西化工、中国宏桥、常熟银行、中国海外发展、快手－W、苏农银行、明泰铝业和柳药股份。整体来看，与中庚价值领航混合的持仓相似度很高。其中美团－W同样也是新进到前十大，而且成为第一大重仓股，快手－W则是从去年底的193.54万股加仓到了504.04万股。丘栋荣在一季报中表示：“港股的估值经过持续的调整后，价格较低或价格出清彻底，港股整体的估值水平处于绝对低位。港股的价值股相比对应的在A股更便宜，同时对应的分红收益率吸引力更强。而以互联网、科技、医药为代表的成长股也回落至相当有吸引力的水平，恒生科技指数中多只成分股更是回撤80%以上，而便宜的估值，能很好的符合我们低估值价值投资策略的选股标准。”具体到港股中的互联网公司，丘栋荣进一步分析道：“一是，这些公司的业务深深嵌入中国经济中，面对的核心需求是不断增长的，比如娱乐、消费、社交等，同时这些公司货币化能力和变现能力还在持续提高；二是，监管政策约束了行业过度的扩张，限制了这些公司的资本开支，尤其是跨领域、跨行业的资本开支，同时也倒逼相关公司进一步专注于自己的核心业务，不断提升核心竞争力，打造坚实业务壁垒，使得盈利能力和造血能力持续提升；三是，由于估值回落，从高估值背景下的扩张到低估值背景下的收缩，龙头公司从大额的资本开支和投资性现金流出，转换到正向的经营性的现金流，投资回报率反而有望显著提升。”兰花科创退出前十大除了该基金，在其它基金方面，同样也有明显的调仓换股动作，比如在中庚小盘价值上，去年底的第一大重仓股兰花科创，在一季度末已经不在前十大名单中了。另外，锦泓集团、一汽富维也都退出前十大，新进前十大的是鲁西化工、航天晨光和常熟银行。在中庚价值灵动灵活配置混合上，去年底的第一大重仓股兰花科创，截至今年一季度末同样不在前十大名单中。另外，健盛集团、陕西煤业、威海广泰也都退出前十大，新进前十大的是鲁西化工、旺能环境、豪能股份和永艺股份。在一季报中，丘栋荣也谈及了关于对A股行业和个股风格的看法。比如在制造业方面，他表示：“广义制造业中挖掘高性价比公司仍大有可为。我们坚持三条标准，即需求增长、供给收缩、细分行业龙头，比如化工、轻工、有色金属加工、机械加工等，可以挖掘出真正的低估值小盘价值股。”在大盘价值股中的金融、地产等方面，丘栋荣认为配置逻辑在于：“金融板块中，看好与制造业产业链相关、服务于实体经济、有独特竞争优势的区域性银行股，这类银行业务相对简单且对地产风险暴露有限，呈现出经营稳健、基本面风险较小、估值极低、成长性较高的特征。地产类公司则集中于具有高信用、低融资成本优势的央企龙头公司，这些公司将是本轮风险后的受益者。我们认为房地产长期需求仍在，中短期也是稳增长的组成部分，随着地产政策调整和金融资源支持，系统性风险将下降，该类公司抗风险能力更强，外延扩张可能性高，并且估值极低情况下，未来房地产市场平稳后，仍有较好的回报潜力。”而对于低估值的中小盘能源、资源类公司。丘栋荣认为配置的逻辑主要在于：“一是，中长期需求仍是稳定且持续增长的；二是，国内外诸多资源和能源类公司长期资本开支水平不高。从市场定价和估值来看，这类公司视为周期类资产，估值极低、现金流好、资本开支少、分红收益率较高、现价对应的预期回报率高；三是，由于中国富煤资源禀赋及政府调控，煤炭单位热值相比海外油、气仍有显著优势。在这样的背景下，国内相关下游行业企业的国内价格较为安全，经营层面上的全球竞争力和成本优势得到提升，相应环节的超额利润具有持续性。因此，我们增加电解铝、煤化工等在能源利用上更有优势的公司的配置。”此外，在其它中小盘价值股和成长股方面。丘栋荣主要提及两个方向，“一是，公用事业、环保等传统低估值行业中的部分小盘价值股，这类公司估值极低、风险释放时间较长，性价比非常高；二是，计算机、传媒、电子、汽车零部件、高端制造等偏成长行业的部分中小盘成长股，调整幅度很大，其估值降至历史估值的较低位置，且其基本面符合未来信息化、智能化、自主化等的产业趋势，未来增长潜力巨大。”","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"90022":0,"03690":0,"01024":0,"QNETCN":0,"HSTECH":0.9,"HSI":0}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":787,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9081507834,"gmtCreate":1650249725549,"gmtModify":1676534679042,"author":{"id":"3581647091503821","authorId":"3581647091503821","name":"谷岳HZ","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3581647091503821","authorIdStr":"3581647091503821"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"nice","listText":"nice","text":"nice","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9081507834","repostId":"1194417947","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1194417947","kind":"news","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"为用户提供金融资讯、行情、数据，旨在帮助投资者理解世界，做投资决策。","home_visible":1,"media_name":"老虎资讯综合","id":"102","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba"},"pubTimestamp":1650237316,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1194417947?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2022-04-18 07:15","market":"sh","language":"zh","title":"This week's preview | Tesla and Netflix's financial reports are coming! Powell to Speak","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1194417947","media":"老虎资讯综合","summary":"本周（4.18-4.23）重磅财经事件：经济数据方面：中国GDP年率、美国至4月15日当周EIA原油库存及美国至4月16日当周初请失业金人数等重磅数据将集中来袭。4月20日上午（周三）中国央行将公布4","content":"<p><html><head></head><body><b>Major financial events this week (4.18-4.23):</b></p><p><b>Economic data:</b>Heavy data such as China's annual GDP rate, EIA crude oil inventories in the United States for the week to April 15th, and the number of initial jobless claims in the United States for the week to April 16th will be concentrated. On the morning of April 20th (Wednesday), the People's Bank of China will announce the 1-year loan market quoted interest rate and the 5-year loan market quoted interest rate in April.<b>Financial report:</b>The earnings season continues to be hot,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BAC\">Bank of America</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BK\">Bank of New York Mellon</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/HAL\">Halliburton</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/JNJ\">Johnson Johnson</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/PG\">Procter Gamble</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NFLX\">Netflix</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/ASML\">ASML</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TSLA\">Tesla</a>AT&T,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AAL\">American Airlines</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/SNAP\">Snap Inc</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/ISRG\">Intuitive Surgery Inc</a>Verizon,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AXP\">American Express</a>Wait to announce results one after another.<b>Financial events:</b>The State Council Office will hold a press conference on the operation of the national economy; In addition, Federal Reserve Chairman Powell, Eagle King Bullard, 2023 FOMC voting committee Chicago Fed President Evans, and 2024 FOMC voting committee San Francisco Fed President Daly will deliver speeches.<b>For new shares:</b>Zhihu, the nation's largest online Q&A community, will go public on Friday.<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9a2d5fdc01fc731126224cf5658d22cc\" tg-width=\"1800\" tg-height=\"1430\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/><b>Keywords for Monday, April 18: Hong Kong stocks are closed; China's annual GDP rate; The State Council Office held a press conference on the operation of the national economy; Bank of America, BNY Mellon Earnings</b><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1680a6399764555318529b3352aeb30b\" tg-width=\"1370\" tg-height=\"697\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2a00f9517560ed59eacc83999071f9ca\" tg-width=\"1232\" tg-height=\"565\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><b>On Monday,</b>Hong Kong stocks were closed due to the Easter holiday, and A-share Connect (northbound) and Hong Kong Stock Connect (southbound) were also closed on the same day.</p><p><b>Economic data</b>, China's annual GDP rate (%), and the US NAHB real estate market index will be announced.</p><p><b>Event aspect</b>, the State Council Information Office will hold a press conference on the operation of the national economy.</p><p><b>Financial reporting</b>，<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BAC\">Bank of America</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BK\">Bank of New York Mellon</a>Results will be announced one after another.</p><p><b>Tuesday, April 19 KEYWORDS: Total U.S. housing starts annualized; Halliburton, Johnson & Johnson, Lockheed Martin, Shandong Gold Earnings</b><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/73d5d5a12928803054746a6c5e479c2b\" tg-width=\"1362\" tg-height=\"301\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/433929ecb5137c2fd6d5bf4eb4cf8901\" tg-width=\"1400\" tg-height=\"268\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/><b>Tuesday</b>，<b>Economic data</b>, data such as the total number of building permits in the United States and the annualized total number of new housing starts in the United States will be hit in the future.</p><p><b>Financial reporting</b>，<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/HAL.US\">Halliburton</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/JNJ\">Johnson Johnson</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/LMT\">Lockheed Martin</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/01787\">Shandong Gold</a>Wait for the financial report to hit.</p><p><b>Keywords for Wednesday, April 20: U.S. API crude oil inventories for the week; Procter & Gamble, Netflix, ASML, China Telecom earnings reports</b><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a487abdec82f2bcb4c1016dde27edaab\" tg-width=\"938\" tg-height=\"755\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d80349cae5f26d4d846bc65b0d8ab7a8\" tg-width=\"1000\" tg-height=\"333\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/><b>Wednesday</b>，<b>Economic data</b>, the U.S. API crude oil inventory for the week and the U.S. EIA strategic petroleum reserve inventory for the week will be announced.</p><p><b>In terms of events,</b>2023 FOMC voting committee and Chicago Fed President Evans delivered a speech at the Economic Club of New York; 2024 FOMC voting committee member and San Francisco Fed President Daly delivered a speech on the economic outlook.</p><p>As for the central bank, at 9:15 a.m. on Wednesday (April 20th), the People's Bank of China will announce the 1-year loan market quoted interest rate and the 5-year loan market quoted interest rate in April. On April 15, the day of the RRR cut operation, the central bank shrank and continued to make MLF, and the interest rate was the same as the previous operation. At present, the focus of the market has turned to the April LPR quotation.</p><p><b>Financial reporting</b>，<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/PG\">Procter Gamble</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NFLX\">Netflix</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/ASML\">ASML</a>, $ASM<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/601099\">Pacific Ocean</a>(00522)$、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/00728\">China Telecom</a>Wait for financial reports to be announced.</p><p><b>Keywords for Thursday, April 21: Federal Reserve economic conditions Beige Book, U.S. EIA natural gas inventories for the week; Tesla, AT&T, Blackstone, American Airlines, China Unicom earnings reports; Zhihu-W winning result</b><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ed5e76bae42d5c1b012643b2e46be073\" tg-width=\"1366\" tg-height=\"464\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/33da4f5f0a2047912d74ccd4a2b82a67\" tg-width=\"1400\" tg-height=\"246\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/><b>Thursday</b>，<b>Economic data</b>, the U.S. Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index, the Conference Board Leading Indicator Monthly Rate, and the U.S. EIA natural gas inventory for the week will be released.</p><p><b>Event aspect</b>, the Federal Reserve will release Beige Book on economic conditions; NYMEX New York crude oil May futures were affected by the change of positions and months. The last transaction on the floor was completed at 2:30 on April 21, and the last transaction on the electronic trading was completed at 5:00 in the morning. Please pay attention to the announcement of expiration and month change in the trading place to control risks. In addition, the expiration time of U.S. oil contracts on some trading platforms is usually one day earlier than the official NYMEX, so please pay more attention.</p><p><b>In terms of financial reports,</b><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TSLA\">Tesla</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/T\">AT&T</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BX\">Blackstone</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AAL\">American Airlines</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/00762\">China Unicom</a>Heavy financial reports will be announced on the same day.</p><p><b>In terms of new shares,</b>The nation's largest online Q&A community<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/02390\">Zhihu-W</a>The winning results will be announced.</p><p><b>Friday, April 22KEYWORDS: Snap, American Express, Intuitive Surgery earnings; United States April<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MRKT\">Markit</a>Manufacturing PMI preliminary value, U.S. Markit services PMI preliminary value in April</b><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5156aa725f088278bc17d3a1f6060cdd\" tg-width=\"937\" tg-height=\"604\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/92c69270e38b326e0da91b2f07d92566\" tg-width=\"986\" tg-height=\"223\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><b>As for economic data,</b>The initial value of the U.S. Markit manufacturing PMI in April and the initial value of the U.S. Markit services PMI in April will be announced on the same day.</p><p><b>Event aspect</b>, Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell and European Central Bank President Christine Lagarde participated in a panel discussion on the global economy hosted by the IMF.</p><p><b>Financial reporting</b>，<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/SNAP\">Snap Inc</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/ISRG\">Intuitive Surgery Inc</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/VZ\">Verizon</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AXP\">American Express</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/SLB\">Schlumberger</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/02333\">Great Wall Motors</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/03968\">China Merchants Bank</a>Waiting for the blockbuster financial reports to hit.</p><p><b>In terms of new shares,</b><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/02390\">Zhihu-W</a>Available Friday.</p><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/02390\">Zhihu-W</a>It is planned to issue 26 million shares at an issue price of no more than HK $51.8 per share. The final offer price has been determined at HK $32.06 per share, with 100 shares per lot. It is expected to be listed on April 22.<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/ZH\">Zhihu</a>Is a leading online content community, listed on the New York Stock Exchange in March 2021. According to CIC Consulting, Zhihu is one of the top five comprehensive online content communities in China in terms of average mobile monthly active users and revenue in 2019, 2020 and 2021, and the largest online Q&A community in the country.</body></html></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>This week's preview | Tesla and Netflix's financial reports are coming! Powell to Speak</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nThis week's preview | Tesla and Netflix's financial reports are coming! Powell to Speak\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/102\">\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">老虎资讯综合 </p>\n<p class=\"h-time smaller\">2022-04-18 07:15</p>\n</div>\n</a>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><html><head></head><body><b>Major financial events this week (4.18-4.23):</b></p><p><b>Economic data:</b>Heavy data such as China's annual GDP rate, EIA crude oil inventories in the United States for the week to April 15th, and the number of initial jobless claims in the United States for the week to April 16th will be concentrated. On the morning of April 20th (Wednesday), the People's Bank of China will announce the 1-year loan market quoted interest rate and the 5-year loan market quoted interest rate in April.<b>Financial report:</b>The earnings season continues to be hot,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BAC\">Bank of America</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BK\">Bank of New York Mellon</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/HAL\">Halliburton</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/JNJ\">Johnson Johnson</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/PG\">Procter Gamble</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NFLX\">Netflix</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/ASML\">ASML</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TSLA\">Tesla</a>AT&T,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AAL\">American Airlines</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/SNAP\">Snap Inc</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/ISRG\">Intuitive Surgery Inc</a>Verizon,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AXP\">American Express</a>Wait to announce results one after another.<b>Financial events:</b>The State Council Office will hold a press conference on the operation of the national economy; In addition, Federal Reserve Chairman Powell, Eagle King Bullard, 2023 FOMC voting committee Chicago Fed President Evans, and 2024 FOMC voting committee San Francisco Fed President Daly will deliver speeches.<b>For new shares:</b>Zhihu, the nation's largest online Q&A community, will go public on Friday.<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9a2d5fdc01fc731126224cf5658d22cc\" tg-width=\"1800\" tg-height=\"1430\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/><b>Keywords for Monday, April 18: Hong Kong stocks are closed; China's annual GDP rate; The State Council Office held a press conference on the operation of the national economy; Bank of America, BNY Mellon Earnings</b><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1680a6399764555318529b3352aeb30b\" tg-width=\"1370\" tg-height=\"697\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2a00f9517560ed59eacc83999071f9ca\" tg-width=\"1232\" tg-height=\"565\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><b>On Monday,</b>Hong Kong stocks were closed due to the Easter holiday, and A-share Connect (northbound) and Hong Kong Stock Connect (southbound) were also closed on the same day.</p><p><b>Economic data</b>, China's annual GDP rate (%), and the US NAHB real estate market index will be announced.</p><p><b>Event aspect</b>, the State Council Information Office will hold a press conference on the operation of the national economy.</p><p><b>Financial reporting</b>，<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BAC\">Bank of America</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BK\">Bank of New York Mellon</a>Results will be announced one after another.</p><p><b>Tuesday, April 19 KEYWORDS: Total U.S. housing starts annualized; Halliburton, Johnson & Johnson, Lockheed Martin, Shandong Gold Earnings</b><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/73d5d5a12928803054746a6c5e479c2b\" tg-width=\"1362\" tg-height=\"301\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/433929ecb5137c2fd6d5bf4eb4cf8901\" tg-width=\"1400\" tg-height=\"268\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/><b>Tuesday</b>，<b>Economic data</b>, data such as the total number of building permits in the United States and the annualized total number of new housing starts in the United States will be hit in the future.</p><p><b>Financial reporting</b>，<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/HAL.US\">Halliburton</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/JNJ\">Johnson Johnson</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/LMT\">Lockheed Martin</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/01787\">Shandong Gold</a>Wait for the financial report to hit.</p><p><b>Keywords for Wednesday, April 20: U.S. API crude oil inventories for the week; Procter & Gamble, Netflix, ASML, China Telecom earnings reports</b><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a487abdec82f2bcb4c1016dde27edaab\" tg-width=\"938\" tg-height=\"755\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d80349cae5f26d4d846bc65b0d8ab7a8\" tg-width=\"1000\" tg-height=\"333\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/><b>Wednesday</b>，<b>Economic data</b>, the U.S. API crude oil inventory for the week and the U.S. EIA strategic petroleum reserve inventory for the week will be announced.</p><p><b>In terms of events,</b>2023 FOMC voting committee and Chicago Fed President Evans delivered a speech at the Economic Club of New York; 2024 FOMC voting committee member and San Francisco Fed President Daly delivered a speech on the economic outlook.</p><p>As for the central bank, at 9:15 a.m. on Wednesday (April 20th), the People's Bank of China will announce the 1-year loan market quoted interest rate and the 5-year loan market quoted interest rate in April. On April 15, the day of the RRR cut operation, the central bank shrank and continued to make MLF, and the interest rate was the same as the previous operation. At present, the focus of the market has turned to the April LPR quotation.</p><p><b>Financial reporting</b>，<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/PG\">Procter Gamble</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NFLX\">Netflix</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/ASML\">ASML</a>, $ASM<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/601099\">Pacific Ocean</a>(00522)$、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/00728\">China Telecom</a>Wait for financial reports to be announced.</p><p><b>Keywords for Thursday, April 21: Federal Reserve economic conditions Beige Book, U.S. EIA natural gas inventories for the week; Tesla, AT&T, Blackstone, American Airlines, China Unicom earnings reports; Zhihu-W winning result</b><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ed5e76bae42d5c1b012643b2e46be073\" tg-width=\"1366\" tg-height=\"464\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/33da4f5f0a2047912d74ccd4a2b82a67\" tg-width=\"1400\" tg-height=\"246\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/><b>Thursday</b>，<b>Economic data</b>, the U.S. Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index, the Conference Board Leading Indicator Monthly Rate, and the U.S. EIA natural gas inventory for the week will be released.</p><p><b>Event aspect</b>, the Federal Reserve will release Beige Book on economic conditions; NYMEX New York crude oil May futures were affected by the change of positions and months. The last transaction on the floor was completed at 2:30 on April 21, and the last transaction on the electronic trading was completed at 5:00 in the morning. Please pay attention to the announcement of expiration and month change in the trading place to control risks. In addition, the expiration time of U.S. oil contracts on some trading platforms is usually one day earlier than the official NYMEX, so please pay more attention.</p><p><b>In terms of financial reports,</b><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TSLA\">Tesla</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/T\">AT&T</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BX\">Blackstone</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AAL\">American Airlines</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/00762\">China Unicom</a>Heavy financial reports will be announced on the same day.</p><p><b>In terms of new shares,</b>The nation's largest online Q&A community<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/02390\">Zhihu-W</a>The winning results will be announced.</p><p><b>Friday, April 22KEYWORDS: Snap, American Express, Intuitive Surgery earnings; United States April<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MRKT\">Markit</a>Manufacturing PMI preliminary value, U.S. Markit services PMI preliminary value in April</b><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5156aa725f088278bc17d3a1f6060cdd\" tg-width=\"937\" tg-height=\"604\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/92c69270e38b326e0da91b2f07d92566\" tg-width=\"986\" tg-height=\"223\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><b>As for economic data,</b>The initial value of the U.S. Markit manufacturing PMI in April and the initial value of the U.S. Markit services PMI in April will be announced on the same day.</p><p><b>Event aspect</b>, Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell and European Central Bank President Christine Lagarde participated in a panel discussion on the global economy hosted by the IMF.</p><p><b>Financial reporting</b>，<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/SNAP\">Snap Inc</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/ISRG\">Intuitive Surgery Inc</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/VZ\">Verizon</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AXP\">American Express</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/SLB\">Schlumberger</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/02333\">Great Wall Motors</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/03968\">China Merchants Bank</a>Waiting for the blockbuster financial reports to hit.</p><p><b>In terms of new shares,</b><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/02390\">Zhihu-W</a>Available Friday.</p><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/02390\">Zhihu-W</a>It is planned to issue 26 million shares at an issue price of no more than HK $51.8 per share. The final offer price has been determined at HK $32.06 per share, with 100 shares per lot. It is expected to be listed on April 22.<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/ZH\">Zhihu</a>Is a leading online content community, listed on the New York Stock Exchange in March 2021. According to CIC Consulting, Zhihu is one of the top five comprehensive online content communities in China in terms of average mobile monthly active users and revenue in 2019, 2020 and 2021, and the largest online Q&A community in the country.</body></html></p>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d256e82db1d71c864259845ce1d069bf","relate_stocks":{"BK4555":"新能源车","BK4533":"AQR资本管理(全球第二大对冲基金)","DJX":"1/100道琼斯","SPY":"标普500ETF","SDOW":"三倍做空道指30ETF-ProShares","TQQQ":"纳指三倍做多ETF","BK4534":"瑞士信贷持仓",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite","DOG":"道指ETF-ProShares做空","SDS":"两倍做空标普500 ETF-ProShares",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index","BK4574":"无人驾驶","TSLA":"特斯拉","BK4524":"宅经济概念","NFLX":"奈飞","UDOW":"三倍做多道指30ETF-ProShares",".DJI":"道琼斯","SPXU":"三倍做空标普500ETF-ProShares","SH":"做空标普500-Proshares","SSO":"2倍做多标普500ETF-ProShares"},"source_url":"","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1194417947","content_text":"本周（4.18-4.23）重磅财经事件：经济数据方面：中国GDP年率、美国至4月15日当周EIA原油库存及美国至4月16日当周初请失业金人数等重磅数据将集中来袭。4月20日上午（周三）中国央行将公布4月1年期贷款市场报价利率和5年期贷款市场报价利率。财报方面：财报季火热继续，美国银行、纽约梅隆银行、哈里伯顿、强生、宝洁、奈飞、阿斯麦、特斯拉、AT&T、美国航空、Snap Inc、直觉外科公司、Verizon、美国运通等相继公布业绩。财经事件方面：国新办将就国民经济运行情况举行发布会；此外，美联储主席鲍威尔、鹰王布拉德、2023年FOMC票委芝加哥联储主席埃文斯、2024年FOMC票委旧金山联储主席戴利将发表讲话。新股方面：全国最大的在线问答社区知乎将于周五上市。4月18日 周一关键词：港股休市；中国GDP年率；国新办国民经济运行情况发布会；美国银行、纽约梅隆银行财报周一，港股因复活节假期休市，A股通（北向）、港股通（南向）当日亦均休市。经济数据方面，中国GDP年率(%)、美国NAHB房产市场指数将公布。事件方面，国新办将就国民经济运行情况举行发布会。财报方面，美国银行、纽约梅隆银行陆续将公布业绩。4月19日 周二关键词：美国新屋开工总数年化；哈里伯顿、强生、洛克希德马丁、山东黄金财报周二，经济数据方面，美国营建许可总数、美国新屋开工总数年化等数据将来袭。财报方面，哈里伯顿、强生、洛克希德马丁、山东黄金等财报集中来袭。4月20日 周三关键词：美国当周API原油库存；宝洁、奈飞、阿斯麦、中国电信财报周三，经济数据方面，美国当周API原油库存、美国当周EIA战略石油储备库存等将公布。事件方面，2023年FOMC票委、芝加哥联储主席埃文斯在纽约经济俱乐部发表讲话；2024年FOMC票委、旧金山联储主席戴利就经济前景发表讲话。央行方面，周三（4月20日）上午9:15，中国央行将公布4月1年期贷款市场报价利率和5年期贷款市场报价利率。4月15日，即降准操作当日，央行缩量续作MLF，利率与前期操作持平，目前市场关注焦点转向4月LPR报价。财报方面，宝洁、奈飞、阿斯麦、$ASM太平洋(00522)$、中国电信等将公布财报。4月21日 周四关键词：美联储经济状况褐皮书、美国当周EIA天然气库存；特斯拉、AT&T、黑石、美国航空、中国联通财报；知乎-W中签结果周四，经济数据方面，美国费城联储制造业指数、美国谘商会领先指标月率、美国当周EIA天然气库存将公布。事件方面，美联储将公布经济状况褐皮书；NYMEX纽约原油5月期货受移仓换月影响，4月21日2:30完成场内最后交易，凌晨5:00完成电子盘最后交易，请留意交易场所到期换月公告控制风险。此外，部分交易平台美油合约到期时间通常较NYMEX官方提前一天，请多加留意。财报方面，特斯拉、AT&T、黑石、美国航空、中国联通等重磅财报将于当日集中公布。新股方面，全国最大的在线问答社区知乎-W将公布中签结果。4月22日 周五关键词：Snap、美国运通、直觉外科财报；美国4月Markit制造业PMI初值、美国4月Markit服务业PMI初值经济数据方面，美国4月Markit制造业PMI初值、美国4月Markit服务业PMI初值将于当日公布。事件方面，美联储主席鲍威尔和欧洲央行行长拉加德参与IMF举办的关于全球经济的小组讨论。财报方面，Snap 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09:49","market":"hk","language":"zh","title":"Global central bank rate hike tide: Adding 50 basis points at a time is the new normal?","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2227646245","media":"华尔街见闻","summary":"继新西兰、加拿大先后加息50个基点，拉开发达市场大幅加息的序幕后，市场关注焦点在于，什么时候轮到美联储？","content":"<p><html><head></head><body>Since the beginning of this year, more than 30 emerging market central banks around the world have issued one-time rate hike of at least 50 basis points. For example, Pakistan raised interest rates by 250 basis points this month, followed closely by crisis-plagued Sri Lanka, which also raised interest rates by 700 basis points.</p><p><b>As the inflation storm intensifies, the current trend of a one-time rate hike of 50 points is emerging in developed markets.</b></p><p>On Wednesday, New Zealand became the first developed country to have a 50 basis point rate hike, followed by Canada. At present, the focus of the market is, when will it be the turn of the Fed?</p><p><b>RBN: Largest rate hike in 22 years</b></p><p>On Wednesday, the RBN unexpectedly announced a 50 basis point rate hike, raising the official cash rate (OCR) from 1% to 1.5%, the biggest rate hike in 22 years.</p><p>In a previous Bloomberg survey of 20 economists, 15 predicted that the RBN would only rate hike by 25 basis points.</p><p>New Zealand's inflation level has now soared to 5.9%, up from 1.4% a year ago, almost double the top of its 1-3% target range, and a 32-year high.</p><p>Not only is the rate hike 50 basis points this time, but the market predicts that the probability of adding another 50 basis points next time has exceeded 50%.</p><p><b>Bank of Canada: First sharp rate hike of 50 basis points in G7</b></p><p>Later on Wednesday, the Bank of Canada also joined the one-time 50 basis point rate hike, raising the policy rate to 1%, and plans to start the shrinking balance sheet in two weeks.</p><p>The Bank of Canada is the first central bank in G7 countries to have a large rate hike of 50 basis points at one time. It is also the country's first rate hike of 50 basis points since May 2000. At the same time, it has set the country's largest rate hike in 22 years.</p><p>More and more analysts believe that the Bank of Canada may announce another sharp rate hike of 50 basis points on June 1, because CPI inflation in February has been above the control range of 1% to 3% for the 11th consecutive month.</p><p><b>Fed: Is rate hike 50 basis points on the line?</b></p><p><b>Although there is no iron law for central banks in developed countries to adjust benchmark interest rates, in recent decades, except for special crises, the practice of central banks' rate hike has been a small adjustment of 25 basis points.</b></p><p>However, in the current inflationary environment, this approach is obviously insufficient, forcing policymakers around the world to send a bigger than usual signal of rate hike.</p><p>Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell has said that if necessary, the Fed will rate hike by 50 basis points. That stance was backed by several other Fed officials.</p><p>Wall Street News previously mentioned that following the first rate hike of 25 bp in March, including Chairman Powell, \"King of Hawks\" Bullard, Cleveland Fed President Mester, and New York Fed President<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/WMB\">Williams</a>, Federal Reserve Governor Waller, and a number of Fed officials, including recent San Francisco Fed President Mary Daly, have stated that if necessary to control inflation, they are willing to raise rate hike to 50 basis points at the May FOMC meeting.</p><p>The minutes of the March Fed meeting also reinforced this point: At the March meeting, several Fed officials believed that if inflation and the economic situation require it, one or more 50 basis point rate hike may be required in the future.</p><p>Market speculation that the Fed may issue a 50 basis point rate hike at its next meeting has also heated up, with futures prices showing an 88% chance of a 50 basis point rate hike at the Fed's next meeting.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/589f9beb480038b8ea394130dab86b0a\" tg-width=\"1271\" tg-height=\"615\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><b>The U.S. CPI increase in March announced on Tuesday was the largest since December 1981 and covered more goods and services, which exacerbated this possibility.</b></p><p>The thinking is that prices are so hot now that monetary authorities need to be bolder in curbing them, or more will have to be done later if inflation becomes entrenched.</p><p>Summarizing its policy, the RBN said they were concerned that inflation expectations were becoming entrenched and that bigger moves now also provide greater policy flexibility going forward given the highly uncertain global economic environment.</p><p>Markets are currently expecting no action at the European Central Bank's meeting this week, but policymakers facing record inflation will be watching the meeting closely for more clues on possible rate hike later this year.</p><p><b>If there is really a substantial rate hike, what will the market do?</b></p><p>The obvious risk is that moving quickly could also shake markets and lead to a recession. Some worry that tighter monetary policy won't address rising inflation caused by supply shocks.</p><p>The UK CPI announced on Wednesday increased by 7.0% year-on-year in March, setting another 30-year record. The Bank of England is also facing pressure from further rate hike. However, after the UK GDP growth rate in February was only 0.1%, rising inflation will further trigger people's concerns about the risk of the economy falling into stagflation.</p><p>This is undoubtedly an unstable period for the market. According to Bloomberg,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BAC\">Bank of America</a>The latest survey of fund managers found their optimism about global growth is at an all-time low, while fears of monetary policy errors are at an all-time high.</p><p></body></html></p>","source":"wallstreetcn_api","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Global central bank rate hike tide: Adding 50 basis points at a time is the new normal?</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nGlobal central bank rate hike tide: Adding 50 basis points at a time is the new normal?\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">华尔街见闻</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2022-04-14 09:49</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><html><head></head><body>Since the beginning of this year, more than 30 emerging market central banks around the world have issued one-time rate hike of at least 50 basis points. For example, Pakistan raised interest rates by 250 basis points this month, followed closely by crisis-plagued Sri Lanka, which also raised interest rates by 700 basis points.</p><p><b>As the inflation storm intensifies, the current trend of a one-time rate hike of 50 points is emerging in developed markets.</b></p><p>On Wednesday, New Zealand became the first developed country to have a 50 basis point rate hike, followed by Canada. At present, the focus of the market is, when will it be the turn of the Fed?</p><p><b>RBN: Largest rate hike in 22 years</b></p><p>On Wednesday, the RBN unexpectedly announced a 50 basis point rate hike, raising the official cash rate (OCR) from 1% to 1.5%, the biggest rate hike in 22 years.</p><p>In a previous Bloomberg survey of 20 economists, 15 predicted that the RBN would only rate hike by 25 basis points.</p><p>New Zealand's inflation level has now soared to 5.9%, up from 1.4% a year ago, almost double the top of its 1-3% target range, and a 32-year high.</p><p>Not only is the rate hike 50 basis points this time, but the market predicts that the probability of adding another 50 basis points next time has exceeded 50%.</p><p><b>Bank of Canada: First sharp rate hike of 50 basis points in G7</b></p><p>Later on Wednesday, the Bank of Canada also joined the one-time 50 basis point rate hike, raising the policy rate to 1%, and plans to start the shrinking balance sheet in two weeks.</p><p>The Bank of Canada is the first central bank in G7 countries to have a large rate hike of 50 basis points at one time. It is also the country's first rate hike of 50 basis points since May 2000. At the same time, it has set the country's largest rate hike in 22 years.</p><p>More and more analysts believe that the Bank of Canada may announce another sharp rate hike of 50 basis points on June 1, because CPI inflation in February has been above the control range of 1% to 3% for the 11th consecutive month.</p><p><b>Fed: Is rate hike 50 basis points on the line?</b></p><p><b>Although there is no iron law for central banks in developed countries to adjust benchmark interest rates, in recent decades, except for special crises, the practice of central banks' rate hike has been a small adjustment of 25 basis points.</b></p><p>However, in the current inflationary environment, this approach is obviously insufficient, forcing policymakers around the world to send a bigger than usual signal of rate hike.</p><p>Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell has said that if necessary, the Fed will rate hike by 50 basis points. That stance was backed by several other Fed officials.</p><p>Wall Street News previously mentioned that following the first rate hike of 25 bp in March, including Chairman Powell, \"King of Hawks\" Bullard, Cleveland Fed President Mester, and New York Fed President<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/WMB\">Williams</a>, Federal Reserve Governor Waller, and a number of Fed officials, including recent San Francisco Fed President Mary Daly, have stated that if necessary to control inflation, they are willing to raise rate hike to 50 basis points at the May FOMC meeting.</p><p>The minutes of the March Fed meeting also reinforced this point: At the March meeting, several Fed officials believed that if inflation and the economic situation require it, one or more 50 basis point rate hike may be required in the future.</p><p>Market speculation that the Fed may issue a 50 basis point rate hike at its next meeting has also heated up, with futures prices showing an 88% chance of a 50 basis point rate hike at the Fed's next meeting.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/589f9beb480038b8ea394130dab86b0a\" tg-width=\"1271\" tg-height=\"615\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><b>The U.S. CPI increase in March announced on Tuesday was the largest since December 1981 and covered more goods and services, which exacerbated this possibility.</b></p><p>The thinking is that prices are so hot now that monetary authorities need to be bolder in curbing them, or more will have to be done later if inflation becomes entrenched.</p><p>Summarizing its policy, the RBN said they were concerned that inflation expectations were becoming entrenched and that bigger moves now also provide greater policy flexibility going forward given the highly uncertain global economic environment.</p><p>Markets are currently expecting no action at the European Central Bank's meeting this week, but policymakers facing record inflation will be watching the meeting closely for more clues on possible rate hike later this year.</p><p><b>If there is really a substantial rate hike, what will the market do?</b></p><p>The obvious risk is that moving quickly could also shake markets and lead to a recession. Some worry that tighter monetary policy won't address rising inflation caused by supply shocks.</p><p>The UK CPI announced on Wednesday increased by 7.0% year-on-year in March, setting another 30-year record. The Bank of England is also facing pressure from further rate hike. However, after the UK GDP growth rate in February was only 0.1%, rising inflation will further trigger people's concerns about the risk of the economy falling into stagflation.</p><p>This is undoubtedly an unstable period for the market. According to Bloomberg,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BAC\">Bank of America</a>The latest survey of fund managers found their optimism about global growth is at an all-time low, while fears of monetary policy errors are at an all-time high.</p><p></body></html></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> source：<a href=\"https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3656895\">华尔街见闻</a></p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0ec5233f089609157cdfe5fb1d3ac57d","relate_stocks":{"161125":"标普500","513500":"标普500ETF","DOG":"道指ETF-ProShares做空","QID":"两倍做空纳斯达克指数ETF-ProShares","SDS":"两倍做空标普500 ETF-ProShares","BAC":"美国银行","BK4207":"综合性银行","DJX":"1/100道琼斯","BK4581":"高盛持仓","SDOW":"三倍做空道指30ETF-ProShares","OEF":"标普100指数ETF-iShares","BK4553":"喜马拉雅资本持仓","SQQQ":"纳指三倍做空ETF",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index","PSQ":"做空纳斯达克100指数ETF-ProShares","TQQQ":"纳指三倍做多ETF","QQQ":"纳指100ETF","BK4534":"瑞士信贷持仓","UDOW":"三倍做多道指30ETF-ProShares","UPRO":"三倍做多标普500ETF-ProShares",".DJI":"道琼斯","SPXU":"三倍做空标普500ETF-ProShares","SH":"做空标普500-Proshares",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite","SSO":"2倍做多标普500ETF-ProShares","OEX":"标普100","QLD":"2倍做多纳斯达克100指数ETF-ProShares","IVV":"标普500ETF-iShares","DXD":"两倍做空道琼30指数ETF-ProShares","DDM":"2倍做多道指ETF-ProShares","BK4504":"桥水持仓","BK4559":"巴菲特持仓","SPY":"标普500ETF","BK4550":"红杉资本持仓"},"source_url":"https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3656895","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2227646245","content_text":"今年以来，全球有30多家新兴市场央行一次性加息至少50个基点，比如巴基斯坦本月将利率提高了250个基点，紧随其后，饱受危机困扰的斯里兰卡也将利率提高了700个基点。随着通胀风暴愈演愈烈，目前一次性加息50个点的趋势正在发达国家市场显现。周三新西兰成为首个一次加息50个基点的发达国家，随后加拿大也加入该行列。目前市场关注焦点自于，什么时候轮到美联储？新西兰联储：以22年来最大幅度加息周三，新西兰联储出人意料地宣布加息50个基点，将官方现金利率（OCR）从1%上调至1.5%，这是22年以来最大幅度的加息。在此前彭博对20位经济学家进行的调查中，有15位都预计新西兰联储只会加息25个基点。目前新西兰的通胀水平已飙升至5.9%，高于一年前的1.4%，几乎是其1-3%目标区间顶部的两倍，并刷新32年以来新高。不仅这次加息50基点，市场预计下一次再加50基点的可能性已经超过50%。加拿大央行：G7中首次大幅加息50个基点周三晚些时候，加拿大央行也加入一次性加息50基点行列，将政策利率升至1%，并且打算两周后开始缩表。加拿大央行是G7国家中首个一次性大幅加息50个基点的央行，也是该国2000年5月以来首次加息50个基点，同时创下该国22年来最大的加息规模。越来越多的分析相信，加拿大央行或在6月1日再次宣布大幅加息50个基点，因为2月CPI通胀已是连续第11个月高于1%至3%的管控区间。美联储：加息50个基点箭在弦上？虽然发达国家央行在调整基准利率方面并没有什么铁律，但近几十年来，除遇特殊危机之外，各国央行加息的惯例一直是25个基点的小幅调整。然而在当前的通胀环境下，这种做法显然是不够的，迫使世界各地的政策制定者发出比通常水平更大的加息信号。美联储主席鲍威尔曾表示，如有必要，美联储将加息50个基点。这一立场得到了其他几位美联储官员的支持。华尔街见闻此前提及，继3月首度加息25个bp后，包括主席鲍威尔、“鹰派之王”布拉德、克利夫兰联储主席梅斯特、纽约联储主席威廉姆斯、美联储理事Waller、包括最近旧金山联储行长 Mary Daly在内的多位联储官员曾表态，如有必要控制通胀，他们愿在5月FOMC会议上提高加息幅度至50基点。3月美联储会议纪要也强化了这一点：3月会议上，多名联储官员认为，若通胀和经济形势需要，未来可能要一次或者更多次加息50个基点。市场对美联储可能在下次会议上加息50基点的猜测也已经升温，期货价格显示，美联储下次会议加息50个基点的可能性为88%。而周二公布的3月美国CPI升幅为1981年12月以来最大，且涵盖更多商品和服务，更加剧了这种可能性。人们的想法是，现在物价如此火爆，货币当局需要更大胆地抑制它们，否则如果通胀变得根深蒂固，以后就必须采取更多行动。新西兰联储在总结其政策时表示，他们担心通胀预期正变得根深蒂固，鉴于全球经济环境高度不确定，现在更大的举措也为未来提供了更大的政策灵活性。目前市场预计欧洲央行本周的会议不会采取行动，但面临创纪录通胀的决策者们将密切关注此次会议，以寻找更多可能在今年晚些时候加息的线索。如果真的大幅度加息，市场怎么办？显而易见的风险是，行动迅速也可能动摇市场，并导致衰退。一些人担心，紧缩的货币政策无法解决供应冲击造成的通胀上升。周三公布的英国3月CPI同比增长7.0%，再创30年来最高纪录，英国央行也面临进一步加息的压力，然而，在英国2月份GDP增长率仅为0.1%之后，通胀上升将进一步引发人们对经济陷入滞胀风险的担忧。对于市场而言，这无疑是一个不稳定的时期。据彭博，美国银行对基金经理进行的最新调查发现，他们对全球增长的乐观情绪处于历史最低点，而对货币政策错误的担忧处于历史最高水平。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"161125":0.6,"513500":0.6,".IXIC":0.9,"NQmain":0.6,"SSO":0.6,".DJI":0.9,"DDM":0.6,"BAC":0.69,"ESmain":0.6,"QQQ":0.6,"TQQQ":0.6,"SH":0.6,"SDS":0.6,"QLD":0.6,"DXD":0.6,"OCR":1,"SQQQ":0.6,"SPXU":0.6,".SPX":0.6,"SDOW":0.6,"PSQ":0.6,"UDOW":0.6,"IVV":0.6,"UPRO":0.6,"MNQmain":0.6,"OEX":0.6,"DJX":0.6,"SPY":0.9,"QID":0.6,"DOG":0.6,"OEF":0.6}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":844,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0}],"hots":[{"id":9033399582,"gmtCreate":1646183397183,"gmtModify":1676534101114,"author":{"id":"3581647091503821","authorId":"3581647091503821","name":"谷岳HZ","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3581647091503821","authorIdStr":"3581647091503821"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Nice","listText":"Nice","text":"Nice","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":4,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9033399582","repostId":"2216149459","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"2216149459","kind":"highlight","pubTimestamp":1646176082,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/2216149459?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2022-03-02 07:08","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"Biden's State of the Union address: Will formulate a new plan to fight inflation, taking shipping as the knife","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2216149459","media":"华尔街见闻","summary":"拜登将强调过去一年美国抗击新冠疫情的成就和前景改善，并将因民主党参议员曼钦不支持而停滞的“重建更好”社会支出计划“重新打包和命名”，挑选其中能降低家庭生活成本和抑制通胀飙升的内容希望得到立法批准。为降低消费者价格，白宫还将对全球航运联盟进行监管打击。","content":"<p><html><head></head><body>Summary: Biden intends to \"repackage and name\" the \"Build Back Better\" social spending plan that has been stalled because Democratic Senator Manchin does not support it, focusing on \"selling\" content that can reduce the cost of living for families and curb soaring inflation. The White House will also launch a regulatory crackdown on global shipping alliances to \"blame\" the inflation problem and lack of competition in the shipping industry. On Tuesday, March 1, at 9 p.m. Eastern Time (10 a.m. Beijing time on March 2), Biden will deliver his first State of the Union address since taking office as President of the United States. CCTV News mentioned yesterday that Biden will talk about the situation in Ukraine and announce new US domestic policy proposals.</p><p>According to White House officials, in his speech, Biden will emphasize the achievements and improved prospects of the United States in fighting COVID-19 pandemic in the past year, and \"repackage and name\" the \"Build Back Better\" social spending plan that was stalled because Democratic Senator Manchin did not support it. \", selecting the content of the original plan that could reduce the cost of living for families and curb soaring inflation, hoping to get legislative approval from Congress.</p><p>He outlined that the focus of U.S. economic policy in the coming year may be on expanding the child tax credit, reducing the cost of child care and elderly care, reducing the cost of health care and negotiating the price of prescription drugs, and cooperating with other oil-consuming countries to release strategic crude oil reserves to suppress energy inflation. \"A plan on energy, child care, and health care costs will be provided.\"</p><p>It is worth noting that in terms of reducing the excessive inflation costs caused by soaring energy prices,<b>Biden will announce steps to address mergers in the maritime industry, such as a regulatory crackdown on global shipping alliances that the White House believes will help lower prices borne by consumers</b>。</p><p>CCTV Finance mentioned more than a month ago that the Baltic Freight Index shows that in the past year, the standard freight rate for routes from Asia to North America has increased 6 times year-on-year, with the highest quotation from Shanghai to Los Angeles soaring nearly 12 times year-on-year. Industry insiders said: \"A box is hard to find, and a box costs ten thousand gold. For international trade, it will make the whole trade market shrink.\"</p><p>At the same time, Biden will also emphasize the benefits of investment in the $1.2 trillion bipartisan infrastructure bill signed into law in November last year, elaborate on how legislative proposals on climate change will reduce costs for low-and middle-income families and create jobs, and call on The U.S. Congress passed the Competitiveness Act to revitalize U.S. high-tech manufacturing and domestic supply chains, and looks forward to a new stage of development in the \"post-epidemic era.\"</p><p>White House press spokesman Jen Psaki said: \"Biden will absolutely talk about inflation in his State of the Union address. He is more focused on people's experience in times of high inflation than treating it as just statistics.\"</p><p>In addition, Biden will call on both parties in Congress to jointly support the birth of the first black female justice in the United States. Last week, he nominated Ketanji Brown Jackson to the Supreme Court. He is likely to propose steps that lawmakers can take to reduce the federal deficit and involve specific actions such as voting rights reform, gun control and police reform. The Democratic Party also hopes to use this speech to build momentum for the mid-term congressional elections in November.</p><p>The analysis pointed out that Biden's first State of the Union address happened at an embarrassing period of sluggish domestic support rates and turbulent international geopolitical situations. He faced stagnant social spending and climate agendas in the United States, as well as soaring to 40-year highs. inflation, which will erode Americans' disposable income and threaten the United States' economic recovery from the epidemic.</p><p>Recent opinion polls by different institutions have shown that the American people's support rate for Biden has dropped significantly since January 2021, and even hit a new low, with the support rate less than 40%.</p><p>According to CCTV News, Americans are particularly dissatisfied with Biden's way of handling economic issues. A poll published two days ago said that 58% of Americans opposed Biden's way of handling economic issues, and 75% of Americans opposed Biden's way of handling economic issues. The U.S. economy is negatively evaluated, and 54% of Americans believe that the U.S. economy has gotten worse since Biden took office.</p><p>Biden's speech today will also be regarded as proof that the United States has emerged from the worst period of COVID-19 pandemic. The attendance rate of the House of Representatives will be close to full, and the audience can choose not to wear masks, all in sharp contrast to his speech to Congress last year.</p><p>He will also use the new employment situation in the United States last year to prove that the epidemic is under control. About 6.4 million new jobs will be added in the United States in 2021, the highest annual increase in record history, but it is still 3.6 million employment opportunities less than pre-pandemic levels.</p><p></body></html></p>","source":"wallstreetcn_api","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Biden's State of the Union address: Will formulate a new plan to fight inflation, taking shipping as the knife</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nBiden's State of the Union address: Will formulate a new plan to fight inflation, taking shipping as the knife\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">华尔街见闻</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2022-03-02 07:08</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><html><head></head><body>Summary: Biden intends to \"repackage and name\" the \"Build Back Better\" social spending plan that has been stalled because Democratic Senator Manchin does not support it, focusing on \"selling\" content that can reduce the cost of living for families and curb soaring inflation. The White House will also launch a regulatory crackdown on global shipping alliances to \"blame\" the inflation problem and lack of competition in the shipping industry. On Tuesday, March 1, at 9 p.m. Eastern Time (10 a.m. Beijing time on March 2), Biden will deliver his first State of the Union address since taking office as President of the United States. CCTV News mentioned yesterday that Biden will talk about the situation in Ukraine and announce new US domestic policy proposals.</p><p>According to White House officials, in his speech, Biden will emphasize the achievements and improved prospects of the United States in fighting COVID-19 pandemic in the past year, and \"repackage and name\" the \"Build Back Better\" social spending plan that was stalled because Democratic Senator Manchin did not support it. \", selecting the content of the original plan that could reduce the cost of living for families and curb soaring inflation, hoping to get legislative approval from Congress.</p><p>He outlined that the focus of U.S. economic policy in the coming year may be on expanding the child tax credit, reducing the cost of child care and elderly care, reducing the cost of health care and negotiating the price of prescription drugs, and cooperating with other oil-consuming countries to release strategic crude oil reserves to suppress energy inflation. \"A plan on energy, child care, and health care costs will be provided.\"</p><p>It is worth noting that in terms of reducing the excessive inflation costs caused by soaring energy prices,<b>Biden will announce steps to address mergers in the maritime industry, such as a regulatory crackdown on global shipping alliances that the White House believes will help lower prices borne by consumers</b>。</p><p>CCTV Finance mentioned more than a month ago that the Baltic Freight Index shows that in the past year, the standard freight rate for routes from Asia to North America has increased 6 times year-on-year, with the highest quotation from Shanghai to Los Angeles soaring nearly 12 times year-on-year. Industry insiders said: \"A box is hard to find, and a box costs ten thousand gold. For international trade, it will make the whole trade market shrink.\"</p><p>At the same time, Biden will also emphasize the benefits of investment in the $1.2 trillion bipartisan infrastructure bill signed into law in November last year, elaborate on how legislative proposals on climate change will reduce costs for low-and middle-income families and create jobs, and call on The U.S. Congress passed the Competitiveness Act to revitalize U.S. high-tech manufacturing and domestic supply chains, and looks forward to a new stage of development in the \"post-epidemic era.\"</p><p>White House press spokesman Jen Psaki said: \"Biden will absolutely talk about inflation in his State of the Union address. He is more focused on people's experience in times of high inflation than treating it as just statistics.\"</p><p>In addition, Biden will call on both parties in Congress to jointly support the birth of the first black female justice in the United States. Last week, he nominated Ketanji Brown Jackson to the Supreme Court. He is likely to propose steps that lawmakers can take to reduce the federal deficit and involve specific actions such as voting rights reform, gun control and police reform. The Democratic Party also hopes to use this speech to build momentum for the mid-term congressional elections in November.</p><p>The analysis pointed out that Biden's first State of the Union address happened at an embarrassing period of sluggish domestic support rates and turbulent international geopolitical situations. He faced stagnant social spending and climate agendas in the United States, as well as soaring to 40-year highs. inflation, which will erode Americans' disposable income and threaten the United States' economic recovery from the epidemic.</p><p>Recent opinion polls by different institutions have shown that the American people's support rate for Biden has dropped significantly since January 2021, and even hit a new low, with the support rate less than 40%.</p><p>According to CCTV News, Americans are particularly dissatisfied with Biden's way of handling economic issues. A poll published two days ago said that 58% of Americans opposed Biden's way of handling economic issues, and 75% of Americans opposed Biden's way of handling economic issues. The U.S. economy is negatively evaluated, and 54% of Americans believe that the U.S. economy has gotten worse since Biden took office.</p><p>Biden's speech today will also be regarded as proof that the United States has emerged from the worst period of COVID-19 pandemic. The attendance rate of the House of Representatives will be close to full, and the audience can choose not to wear masks, all in sharp contrast to his speech to Congress last year.</p><p>He will also use the new employment situation in the United States last year to prove that the epidemic is under control. About 6.4 million new jobs will be added in the United States in 2021, the highest annual increase in record history, but it is still 3.6 million employment opportunities less than pre-pandemic levels.</p><p></body></html></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> source：<a href=\"https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3653128\">华尔街见闻</a></p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a06fb8b1db7037b689423e44b4d5b305","relate_stocks":{".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index",".DJI":"道琼斯"},"source_url":"https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3653128","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2216149459","content_text":"摘要：拜登打算将因民主党参议员曼钦不支持而停滞的“重建更好”社会支出计划“重新打包和命名”，重点“推销”能降低家庭生活成本和抑制通胀飙升的内容。白宫还将对全球航运联盟进行监管打击，将通胀问题“甩锅”海运业竞争不足。3月1日周二美东时间晚9点（北京时间3月2日早10点），拜登将发表其就任美国总统以来的首次国情咨文演讲。央视新闻昨日提到，拜登将谈论乌克兰局势并宣布新的美国国内政策提案。据白宫官员介绍，拜登在演讲中将强调过去一年美国抗击新冠疫情的成就和前景改善，并将因民主党参议员曼钦不支持而停滞的“重建更好”社会支出计划“重新打包和命名”，挑选原计划中能降低家庭生活成本和抑制通胀飙升的内容，希望得到国会立法批准。他勾勒出的未来一年美国经济政策重点可能会放在扩大儿童税收抵免、降低儿童保育和老人看护费用、降低医疗保健成本和处方药谈判价格、通过与其他石油消费国合作释放战略原油储备来打压能源通胀等方面，“将提供关于能源、儿童保育、以及医疗保健成本的一份计划”。值得注意的是，在压降能源价格飙升造成的通胀成本过高方面，拜登将宣布采取措施来解决海运业的兼并问题，例如对全球航运联盟进行监管打击，白宫认为这有助于降低消费者承担的价格。央视财经一个多月前提到，波罗的海运价指数显示，过去一年，从亚洲到北美航线标准运费同比上涨6倍，其中上海到洛杉矶最高报价同比暴涨近12倍。业内人士表示：“一箱难求、一箱万金，对于国际贸易来讲，会让整个贸易市场萎缩。”同时，拜登还将强调去年11月签署成法律生效的1.2万亿美元两党支持基础设施法案投资利好，阐述针对气候变化的立法建议将如何降低中低收入家庭的成本并创造就业机会，呼吁美国国会通过竞争力法案来振兴美国高科技制造业和国内供应链，并展望“后疫情时代”的新发展阶段。白宫新闻发言人珍·普萨基表示：“拜登绝对会在国情咨文演讲中谈到通货膨胀，他更关注人们在高通胀时期的体验，而不是将其仅仅视为统计数据。”此外，拜登将呼吁国会两党共同支持美国诞生第一位黑人女性大法官，上周他提名Ketanji Brown Jackson入选最高法院。他可能会提出立法者可以采取减少联邦赤字的措施，并涉及投票权改革、枪支管制和警察改革等具体行动。民主党还希望借助本次演讲为11月的国会中期选举造势。分析指出，拜登的首份国情咨文演讲，恰好发生在国内支持率低迷和国际地缘政治局势动荡的尴尬时期，他在美国国内面临着停滞不前的社会支出和气候议程，以及飙升至40年高位的通胀，后者将侵蚀美国人的可支配收入，并威胁到美国从疫情中经济复苏。近期多份不同机构的民意调查都显示，美国民众对拜登的支持率自2021月1月显著下降，甚至是再创新低、支持率不足四成。据央视新闻总结，美国人对拜登处理经济问题的方式尤其不满，两天前发表的一份民调称，58%的美国人反对拜登处理经济问题采取的方式、75%的美国人对美国经济持负面评价、54%的美国人认为自拜登上任以来美国经济变得更糟。拜登今日演讲也会被视为美国已走出新冠疫情最严重时期的证明，众议院的听众到场率将接近满员，而且到场的听众可以选择不戴口罩，都与去年他在国会致辞形成鲜明对比。他还会用美国去年新增就业情况来证明疫情得到控制。2021年美国新增约640万个工作岗位，年度增幅创有纪录以来的史上最高，但仍比疫情前水平少了360万个雇用机会。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{".IXIC":0,".SPX":0,".DJI":0}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":816,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9038771166,"gmtCreate":1646925656370,"gmtModify":1676534178115,"author":{"id":"3581647091503821","authorId":"3581647091503821","name":"谷岳HZ","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3581647091503821","authorIdStr":"3581647091503821"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"nice","listText":"nice","text":"nice","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9038771166","repostId":"1101370304","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1101370304","kind":"news","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"中国大陆领先的金融数据、信息和软件服务企业，总部位于上海陆家嘴金融中心。","home_visible":1,"media_name":"Wind万得","id":"99","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c71e30d1317b4a5cb20a41998e10ac68"},"pubTimestamp":1646895563,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1101370304?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2022-03-10 14:59","market":"hk","language":"zh","title":"Is it a stop for commodities to refuel, or is it a historical top?","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1101370304","media":"Wind万得","summary":"随着俄乌冲突的暂时缓解，以及伦镍逼空剧情反转，大宗商品价格在一路狂奔后急跌。此轮行情就此结束还是上涨途中暂时喘息？消息面上，乌克兰执政党人民公仆党日前发表声明称，乌不可能在未来几年加入北约，同时提议莫","content":"<p><html><head></head><body>With the temporary easing of the conflict between Russia and Ukraine and the reversal of the short squeeze in Lunni, commodity prices plummeted after running wildly. Is this the end of this round of market or is it a temporary respite on the way up?</p><p>On the news, Ukraine's ruling People's Servant Party recently issued a statement saying that it is impossible for Ukraine to join NATO in the next few years, and at the same time proposed that Moscow legally recognize Ukraine's national status and guarantee that \"Kiev is not threatened.\" Russia-Ukraine has become a short-lived ceasefire agreement that will open up humanitarian corridors for civilians. So far, this is substantial progress made in the Russia-Ukraine negotiations.</p><p>After Lunni soared by more than 200% in two days, the short-selling Tsingshan Group responded that it had allocated sufficient spot for delivery. At the same time, the London Stock Exchange announced that it would double the margin requirement for nickel trading to US $4,808/ton from the market close on March 10; In addition, the initial margin for aluminum, zinc and copper was raised by 8.3%, 7.1% and 4.4% respectively. Commodities have died down for the time being.</p><p>Affected by the news, commodities fell sharply led by international oil prices.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2e28f08dbff3ef93197438ef99108f45\" tg-width=\"796\" tg-height=\"733\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>As the king of commodities, if oil has not fallen, commodities have not yet turned around.</p><p>The latest news is that on the afternoon of March 10, Beijing time, the U.S. House of Representatives passed a bill prohibiting the United States from importing Russian oil with 414 votes in favor and 17 votes against. Members of both parties demanded more severe punishment for Russia's attack on Ukraine. The ban contains a provision that allows the president to import certain products \"in the national interest,\" subject to congressional review. The ban will take effect 45 days after it is signed into law.</p><p>Data show that before the Russia-Ukraine conflict, Russia's crude oil and refined oil exports were 4.7 million barrels and 2.8 million barrels per day respectively, while the United States imported crude oil and refined oil from Russia in 2021 at an average of 670,000 barrels per day. In January this year, the United States and Europe imported about 4.3 million barrels of Russian oil per day. Research firm Rystad Energy estimates that global production cuts of 4 million barrels per day will raise crude oil prices to US $200 per barrel.</p><p>Since it has been decided to ban oil imports from Russia, it is necessary to find oil from other places to replace it. The first target must be OPEC. According to Rystad data, OPEC + has about 4 million barrels per day of idle production capacity, mainly concentrated in Saudi Arabia, Iraq, Iran and the United Arab Emirates.</p><p>However, according to the US \"Capitol Hill\" report, the leaders of Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates refused to talk to Biden. OPEC Secretary-General Barkindo said that although oil prices in the futures market have risen by more than 30% since the Russia-Ukraine conflict, there is no actual shortage of oil.</p><p>In fact, at the latest meeting after Russia sent troops to Ukraine, OPEC decided to stick to the original production plan in only 13 minutes. This was also the shortest meeting in their history.</p><p>Another breakthrough is Venezuela, a close neighbor of the United States. In 2020, Venezuela's crude oil production will average 636,000 barrels per day. The U.S. government offered to import Venezuelan crude oil in exchange for relaxing economic sanctions against Venezuela. However, the U.S. State Department and Petroleos de Venezuela have not yet responded to this matter. However, the Venezuelan government has released two American citizens.</p><p>As the king of commodities, Brent oil and New York crude oil have both risen by more than 40% so far this year. Although the war between Russia and Ukraine has eased, the subsequent economic sanctions against Russia have just begun. Currently, there are nearly 3,000 sanctions imposed on Russia, large and small. In terms of items, Russia has also surpassed Iran and become the most severely sanctioned country in the world. The longer and stronger the sanctions, the higher the probability of commodities rising.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/10e526b6cfe6f2254f887ded4d912dfd\" tg-width=\"796\" tg-height=\"428\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p></body></html></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Is it a stop for commodities to refuel, or is it a historical top?</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nIs it a stop for commodities to refuel, or is it a historical top?\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/99\">\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/c71e30d1317b4a5cb20a41998e10ac68);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">Wind万得 </p>\n<p class=\"h-time smaller\">2022-03-10 14:59</p>\n</div>\n</a>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><html><head></head><body>With the temporary easing of the conflict between Russia and Ukraine and the reversal of the short squeeze in Lunni, commodity prices plummeted after running wildly. Is this the end of this round of market or is it a temporary respite on the way up?</p><p>On the news, Ukraine's ruling People's Servant Party recently issued a statement saying that it is impossible for Ukraine to join NATO in the next few years, and at the same time proposed that Moscow legally recognize Ukraine's national status and guarantee that \"Kiev is not threatened.\" Russia-Ukraine has become a short-lived ceasefire agreement that will open up humanitarian corridors for civilians. So far, this is substantial progress made in the Russia-Ukraine negotiations.</p><p>After Lunni soared by more than 200% in two days, the short-selling Tsingshan Group responded that it had allocated sufficient spot for delivery. At the same time, the London Stock Exchange announced that it would double the margin requirement for nickel trading to US $4,808/ton from the market close on March 10; In addition, the initial margin for aluminum, zinc and copper was raised by 8.3%, 7.1% and 4.4% respectively. Commodities have died down for the time being.</p><p>Affected by the news, commodities fell sharply led by international oil prices.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2e28f08dbff3ef93197438ef99108f45\" tg-width=\"796\" tg-height=\"733\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>As the king of commodities, if oil has not fallen, commodities have not yet turned around.</p><p>The latest news is that on the afternoon of March 10, Beijing time, the U.S. House of Representatives passed a bill prohibiting the United States from importing Russian oil with 414 votes in favor and 17 votes against. Members of both parties demanded more severe punishment for Russia's attack on Ukraine. The ban contains a provision that allows the president to import certain products \"in the national interest,\" subject to congressional review. The ban will take effect 45 days after it is signed into law.</p><p>Data show that before the Russia-Ukraine conflict, Russia's crude oil and refined oil exports were 4.7 million barrels and 2.8 million barrels per day respectively, while the United States imported crude oil and refined oil from Russia in 2021 at an average of 670,000 barrels per day. In January this year, the United States and Europe imported about 4.3 million barrels of Russian oil per day. Research firm Rystad Energy estimates that global production cuts of 4 million barrels per day will raise crude oil prices to US $200 per barrel.</p><p>Since it has been decided to ban oil imports from Russia, it is necessary to find oil from other places to replace it. The first target must be OPEC. According to Rystad data, OPEC + has about 4 million barrels per day of idle production capacity, mainly concentrated in Saudi Arabia, Iraq, Iran and the United Arab Emirates.</p><p>However, according to the US \"Capitol Hill\" report, the leaders of Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates refused to talk to Biden. OPEC Secretary-General Barkindo said that although oil prices in the futures market have risen by more than 30% since the Russia-Ukraine conflict, there is no actual shortage of oil.</p><p>In fact, at the latest meeting after Russia sent troops to Ukraine, OPEC decided to stick to the original production plan in only 13 minutes. This was also the shortest meeting in their history.</p><p>Another breakthrough is Venezuela, a close neighbor of the United States. In 2020, Venezuela's crude oil production will average 636,000 barrels per day. The U.S. government offered to import Venezuelan crude oil in exchange for relaxing economic sanctions against Venezuela. However, the U.S. State Department and Petroleos de Venezuela have not yet responded to this matter. However, the Venezuelan government has released two American citizens.</p><p>As the king of commodities, Brent oil and New York crude oil have both risen by more than 40% so far this year. Although the war between Russia and Ukraine has eased, the subsequent economic sanctions against Russia have just begun. Currently, there are nearly 3,000 sanctions imposed on Russia, large and small. In terms of items, Russia has also surpassed Iran and become the most severely sanctioned country in the world. The longer and stronger the sanctions, the higher the probability of commodities rising.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/10e526b6cfe6f2254f887ded4d912dfd\" tg-width=\"796\" tg-height=\"428\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p></body></html></p>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5d8fb95e65f042f352c6313989391357","relate_stocks":{"161715":"大宗商品","000979.SH":"大宗商品"},"source_url":"","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1101370304","content_text":"随着俄乌冲突的暂时缓解，以及伦镍逼空剧情反转，大宗商品价格在一路狂奔后急跌。此轮行情就此结束还是上涨途中暂时喘息？消息面上，乌克兰执政党人民公仆党日前发表声明称，乌不可能在未来几年加入北约，同时提议莫斯科在法律上承认乌国家地位并保证“基辅不受威胁”。俄乌克成了短暂的停火协议，将为平民开辟人道主义走廊。截止到目前为止，这是俄乌谈判取得的实质性进展。伦镍两日暴涨超200%后，空头青山集团回应，已调配到充足现货进行交割，同时伦交所宣布，3月10日收盘后起，将镍交易保证金要求提高一倍，至4808美元/吨；此外，将铝、锌和铜的初始保证金分别上调8.3%、7.1%和4.4%。大宗商品暂时偃旗息鼓。受消息面影响，大宗商品在国际油价带领下大幅下挫。作为商品之王，石油如果还没有倒下，大宗商品暂时就还没转向。最新消息，北京时间3月10日下午，美国众议院以414票赞成，17票反对通过了禁止美国进口俄罗斯石油的法案，两党议员都要求对俄罗斯进攻乌克兰进行更严厉的惩罚。禁令包含一项条款，允许总统在“符合国家利益”的情况下进口某些产品，但须经国会审查。禁令将在签署成为法律后的45天生效。数据显示，俄乌冲突之前，俄罗斯原油和成品油出口规模分别为日均470万桶和280万桶，而2021年美国从俄罗斯进口原油和成品油的数量为日均67万桶。今年1月份美国和欧洲每日进口约430万桶俄罗斯石油，研究机构Rystad Energy估计，全球每日减产400万桶将使原油价格升至每桶200美元。既然决定禁止从俄进口石油，就要从别的地方找油代替，第一目标肯定是OPEC，根据Rystad的数据，OPEC+拥有约400万桶/日的闲置产能，主要集中在沙特、伊拉克、伊朗和阿联酋。但据美国《国会山报》报道，沙特和阿联酋领导人拒绝了与拜登的通话。OPEC秘书长巴尔金多表示，尽管自俄乌冲突以来，期货市场的油价上涨了30%以上，但石油并不存在实际短缺。其实在俄罗斯出兵乌克兰后的最近一次会议上，OPEC+只用了13分钟就决定坚持原来的生产计划，这也是他们有史以来最短的一次会面。另一个突破口是美国近邻委内瑞拉，2020年委内瑞拉原油产量为日均63.6万桶。美国政府提出进口委内瑞拉原油，作为交换，美国放松对委内瑞拉经济制裁。不过，美国国务院和委内瑞拉石油公司尚未回应此事。不过委内瑞拉政府已经释放两名美国公民。作为大宗商品之王，布油和纽约原油年初至今双双涨超40%，虽然现在俄乌战事有所缓解，但后续对俄的经济制裁才刚开始，目前对俄罗斯大大小小各种制裁近3000项，俄罗斯也超越伊朗，成为全球被制裁最严重的国家，制裁时间越长，力度越大，大宗商品上涨几率就越高。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"161715":0.9,"000979.SH":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":307,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9098593947,"gmtCreate":1644170249307,"gmtModify":1676533895814,"author":{"id":"3581647091503821","authorId":"3581647091503821","name":"谷岳HZ","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3581647091503821","authorIdStr":"3581647091503821"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"nice","listText":"nice","text":"nice","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9098593947","repostId":"2209328505","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"2209328505","kind":"highlight","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"关注中国基金报，即时获取深度理财资讯","home_visible":1,"media_name":"中国基金报","id":"6","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2b2c79a68beb44c7bc06ad7210091200"},"pubTimestamp":1644128657,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/2209328505?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2022-02-06 14:24","market":"hk","language":"zh","title":"Big bargain hunting! 60 trillion yuan asset management giant new products launched and bought these stocks","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2209328505","media":"中国基金报","summary":"近期，世界头号资管巨头贝莱德旗下一只中国科技ETF-iShares MSCI China Multisector Tech ETF (安硕MSCI中国多行业科技ETF，代码TCHI)于纳斯达克上市。这","content":"<p><div>Recently, a China technology ETF-iShares MSCI China Multisector Tech ETF (iShares MSCI China Multisector Technology ETF, code TCHI) owned by BlackRock, the world's number one asset management giant, was listed on Nasdaq. This is the first Chinese technology ETF under the 63.6 trillion yuan asset management giant BlackRock. TCHI tracks MSCI's technology index, and the parent index is the MSCI China Index. Information disclosure materials show that the technology index tracked by TCHI is from 27 technology-related sub-sectors in the MSCI China Index...</p><p><a href=\"\">Web link</a></div></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Big bargain hunting! 60 trillion yuan asset management giant new products launched and bought these stocks</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nBig bargain hunting! 60 trillion yuan asset management giant new products launched and bought these stocks\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/6\">\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/2b2c79a68beb44c7bc06ad7210091200);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">中国基金报 </p>\n<p class=\"h-time smaller\">2022-02-06 14:24</p>\n</div>\n</a>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><div>Recently, a China technology ETF-iShares MSCI China Multisector Tech ETF (iShares MSCI China Multisector Technology ETF, code TCHI) owned by BlackRock, the world's number one asset management giant, was listed on Nasdaq. This is the first Chinese technology ETF under the 63.6 trillion yuan asset management giant BlackRock. TCHI tracks MSCI's technology index, and the parent index is the MSCI China Index. Information disclosure materials show that the technology index tracked by TCHI is from 27 technology-related sub-sectors in the MSCI China Index...</p><p><a href=\"\">Web link</a></div></p>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5d8fb95e65f042f352c6313989391357","relate_stocks":{"BK4567":"ESG概念","BK4526":"热门中概股","BK4534":"瑞士信贷持仓","BK4514":"搜索引擎","BK4503":"景林资产持仓","NTES":"网易","KWEB":"中国海外互联网ETF-KraneShares","BK4533":"AQR资本管理(全球第二大对冲基金)","BK1550":"内险股","HSI":"恒生指数","BK1507":"粤港澳大湾区","BK1521":"挪威政府全球养老基金持仓","BK4505":"高瓴资本持仓","BK4535":"淡马锡持仓","BK4504":"桥水持仓","BK4085":"互动家庭娱乐","BK4135":"资产管理与托管银行","02318":"中国平安","03086":"华夏纳指","QNETCN":"纳斯达克中美互联网老虎指数","BK4548":"巴美列捷福持仓","BLK":"贝莱德","MCHI":"中国ETF-iShares MSCI","TTTN":"老虎中美互联网巨头ETF","BK1184":"人寿与健康保险","BK4532":"文艺复兴科技持仓","BK4501":"段永平概念","BK4531":"中概回港概念"},"source_url":"","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2209328505","content_text":"近期，世界头号资管巨头贝莱德旗下一只中国科技ETF-iShares MSCI China Multisector Tech ETF (安硕MSCI中国多行业科技ETF，代码TCHI)于纳斯达克上市。这是63.6万亿元资管巨头贝莱德旗下首只中国科技ETF。TCHI跟踪MSCI 旗下的科技指数，母指数是MSCI中国指数。信息披露材料显示，TCHI跟踪的科技指数从MSCI中国指数中27个科技相关子行业中挑选成分股，涉及通讯服务、可选消费、金融、医疗健康，工业，信息技术等领域。TCHI1月25日上市，截至2月3日，ETF净值上涨3.08%。TCHI买了哪些股票呢？截至2月3日，TCHI的前十大重仓股为百度、腾讯、舜宇光学科技、网易、京东、宁德时代、小米、美团、阿里巴巴、拼多多。对于不少美国和中国香港市场同时上市的股票，指数优先选择了中国香港上市股份。前十大重仓股中，港股占据7席。从行业分布来看，这只指数前五大重仓行业为信息技术、通讯、可选消费、工业、金融等。投资者抄底中国科技股目前美国上市的规模超过10亿美元的中国股票ETF包括景顺旗下的CQQQ，道富环球旗下的SPDR 标普中国ETF GXC 德意志银行旗下的ASHR， 安硕中国大盘ETF-FXI，安硕MSCI中国ETF(MCHI)，金瑞中证中国互联网ETF(KWEB)。其中KWEB，最新规模72.6亿美元为美国最大的中国股票ETF。尽管6只规模以上中国ETF中，贝莱德旗下的指数品牌安硕占据了两席，但是世界头号ETF大厂贝莱德可能未必满意这样战果。要知道，过去很长一段时间以来，它旗下的两只中国ETF一直为美国中国股票ETF规模排行榜的第一和第二名。谁能料到，2021年，中概互联网跌跌不休，然而美国投资者对中国互联网的兴致盎然，MCHI从宝座跌落。中金公司旗下的金瑞基金发行的KWEB成为美国最大中国股票ETF。捕捉到了投资者对中国科技、互联网行业兴致的贝莱德指数品牌安硕，迅速行动上线了TCHI。进入2022年，数据显示，美国投资者对中国科技互联网的热情并未退潮。2022年以来，KWEB继续吸金。2022年1月1日至2月5日，KWEB已经吸引了超过9亿美元资金净流入。2022年以来，KWEB的资金流入情况来源：ETF.com重仓港股无论是KWEB还是贝莱德刚刚上市的TCHI，持仓中港股占比都很高。经历了两年的熊市之后，如今机构对港股的呼声很高。而虎年首个交易日，港股也确实给了一个漂亮开门红。大年初四，春节后首个交易日，港股各大指数集体高开，恒生指数高开2.48%，科技、消费涨幅居前，恒生科技指数涨2.56%，截至午间收盘，恒生指数涨2.71%，报24447.31点；国企指数涨2.22%，红筹指数涨2.01%。港股大金融板块走强，银行股中，汇丰、渣打涨超4%，招商银行涨超3%；保险股中，中国平安涨超4%，友邦保险涨超3%，中国太保、中国人寿等纷纷上涨。另外，港股科技股集体大涨，阿里巴巴、百度集团涨超5%，哔哩哔哩涨超4%，美团、网易涨超2%。美国的纯被动ETF不追求超额收益，只追求尽可能地贴合指数表现。但是，由于指数中港股占比高，港股市场的表现无疑影响ETF表现。贝莱德基金：港股投资窗口已打开全球头号资管巨头贝莱德多次表达对中国市场重视。例如，贝莱德集团CEO拉里。芬克曾在“致股东的信”中写道：中国市场拥有重要机遇，有助于帮助中国以及国际投资者长期投资目标。同时，它也给了贝莱德帮助中国数百万的居民应对养老挑战的机遇。贝莱德国内独资公募贝莱德基金投资总监陆文杰近期表示，港股的投资窗口已经打开。据本报此前报道，陆文杰认为，2022年港股机会可能优于A股。“经过去年的大幅度下跌，港股股票估值已经比较低，大部分行业的估值在历史中位数以下。而且，投资者预期也较低。从PE看，港股是全球主要市场中最低的，港股主板估值比A股低15%~20%。恒生科技的估值只是A股创业板的1/3”。在同一篇报道中， 陆文杰强调，估值低、基本面改善不意味着可以炒港股的反弹。配置港股，是资产配置的需要。“港股相对A股有折价，但并不是说A股行情会在港股重新演绎一遍，两个市场逻辑不同。港股的机会是多元宽泛的，各个行业、各个主题都有机会，而A股往往会聚焦在一些特别热门的赛道。”在板块和行业方面，陆文杰看好多个方向，包括消费、互联网、生物医药等。另一资管巨头先锋领航中国基金也将发行2021年11月底，共同基金巨头美国先锋领航集团宣布拟推出中国基金-Vanguard China Select Stock Fund。可能有人会感到奇怪，被动投资巨头为什么要推出一只主动管理的中国股票基金。但实际上，先锋领航旗下主动管理产品的总规模也有1.8万亿美元，它也是一家主动管理巨头。从先锋领航集团向美国证交会提交的申请材料看，基金可能于2022年3月发行。先锋领航集团将与两位中国投资实力雄厚的投资顾问合作，威灵顿管理和柏基。威灵顿管理与先锋领航合作时间很长。柏基对中国科技公司的研究非常深入，也是全球最知名的科技股捕手。先锋领航集团在新闻发布稿中表示，基金致力于超越基准提供阿尔法收益。这只基金选择MSCI中国全指数为基准。同时，也试图在费率上比同类基金更优惠。来源：SEC此外，富达国际也将推出中国ESG基金。外围噪音不断，但是国际巨头布局中国的步伐没有发生大的变化。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"QNETCN":0.9,"HSImain":0.9,"HHImain":0.9,"KWEB":1,"TTTN":0.9,"MHImain":0.9,"NTES":0.6,"BLK":0.9,"MCHI":1,"MCHmain":0.9,"03086":0.87,"HSI":0.6,"02318":0.6}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":714,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9031332552,"gmtCreate":1646441561403,"gmtModify":1676534129598,"author":{"id":"3581647091503821","authorId":"3581647091503821","name":"谷岳HZ","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3581647091503821","authorIdStr":"3581647091503821"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"nice","listText":"nice","text":"nice","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9031332552","repostId":"2216646810","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"2216646810","kind":"highlight","pubTimestamp":1646403374,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/2216646810?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2022-03-04 22:16","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"Analysis | Non-agricultural performance is beautiful, does the Fed have to step up its horsepower to deal with inflation?","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2216646810","media":"金十数据","summary":"美国2月季调后非农就业人口录得增加67.8万人，为去年7月来最大增幅，高于市场预期。1月份非农新增就业人数从46.7万人上修至48.1万人；去年12月份非农新增就业人数从51万人上修至58.8万人。 ","content":"<p><html><head></head><body>The seasonally adjusted non-farm payrolls in the United States increased by 678,000 in February, the largest increase since July last year and higher than market expectations. The number of new non-agricultural jobs in January was revised upward from 467,000 to 481,000; The number of new non-agricultural jobs in December last year was revised upward from 510,000 to 588,000. The U.S. unemployment rate recorded 3.8% in February, the lowest since February 2020.</p><p>After the data was released, spot gold gave up gains after rising by $2 in the short term. The US Dollar Index rose 32 points in the short term; Non-US currencies generally fell, with the euro falling more than 40 points against the US dollar in the short term and the pound falling 30 points against the US dollar in the short term.</p><p><b>The probability of the Federal Reserve's rate hike has increased compared with before the data was released.</b>The probability of the Fed's 25 basis point rate hike in March is 97.8%, compared with 95.9% before; The probability of a 75 basis point rate hike in May is 23.5%, compared with 20.9% previously.</p><p>The Bureau of Labor Statistics said employment grew broadly, primarily in leisure and hospitality, professional and business services, healthcare and construction. The WSJ said this shows that the labor market is performing strongly as the Fed prepares for a rate hike.</p><p>Analyst Carl Riccadonna said that such a large increase in employment shows that the unemployment rate will drop significantly this year. In the short term, this will not raise the 50 basis point expectation of the Fed's rate hike, especially as the Russia-Ukraine crisis intensifies, but<b>It does make the situation of federal funds even more severe later this year.</b></p><p>Analyst Katia Dmitrieva pointed to wages as a factor that frustrates employees. Despite higher-than-expected wage growth, wage growth was flat for the month, up 5.1% from a year earlier.<b>The annual increase is still more than double the pre-pandemic rate, but well below any economist's expectations.</b>With inflation at a 40-year high, this is also a potentially worrying signal for personal finances.</p><p>Analyst Steve Matthews believes this report seems to be in line with the kind of report the Fed wants to see. The labor force participation rate has improved nicely, so there has been some relief in the supply problem, which has been one of the problems on the employer side before.<b>Wage growth has also declined, so there is not much indication that wages are causing an inflationary spiral.</b></p><p>Powell has previously announced that he will support and propose a 25 basis point rate hike at the March meeting, so the market generally believes that this employment report basically has no impact on the March decision. Fed Evans also said that the (employment) report is good news, but<b>Will not change Fed Chairman Jerome Powell's plans.</b></p><p>At present, the tension in Ukraine has triggered market concerns about the economic stagflation. Coupled with Powell's cautious stance, the market is no longer aggressively betting on the Fed's rate hike of 50 basis points. It is expected that the Fed will rate hike 6 times this year, with each rate hike The range is 25 basis points.</p><p>However,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/GS\">Goldman Sachs</a>The attitude is more pessimistic, with the agency raising its U.S. inflation forecast and expecting the Federal Reserve to conduct more rate hike than expected in 2023. Erik Norland, executive director and senior economist at CME group, pointed out that no matter which path the Fed ultimately follows to implement monetary policy,<b>The impact on reality is policy tightening, and the general direction will not change at all.</b></p><p>Analysts believe that if the Federal Reserve is too fast to rate hike and shrinking balance sheet, gold prices will face a lot of room for adjustment. Previously, under the disturbance of safe-haven funds, the upper space of gold was further compressed, so the lower space was much larger than the upper space.</p><p><b>U.S. February non-farm payrolls report full text in Chinese</b></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/de0fb499f0466794df31e509152538f0\" tg-width=\"1600\" tg-height=\"7204\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p></body></html></p>","source":"xnew_highlight","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Analysis | Non-agricultural performance is beautiful, does the Fed have to step up its horsepower to deal with inflation?</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nAnalysis | Non-agricultural performance is beautiful, does the Fed have to step up its horsepower to deal with inflation?\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">金十数据</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2022-03-04 22:16</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><html><head></head><body>The seasonally adjusted non-farm payrolls in the United States increased by 678,000 in February, the largest increase since July last year and higher than market expectations. The number of new non-agricultural jobs in January was revised upward from 467,000 to 481,000; The number of new non-agricultural jobs in December last year was revised upward from 510,000 to 588,000. The U.S. unemployment rate recorded 3.8% in February, the lowest since February 2020.</p><p>After the data was released, spot gold gave up gains after rising by $2 in the short term. The US Dollar Index rose 32 points in the short term; Non-US currencies generally fell, with the euro falling more than 40 points against the US dollar in the short term and the pound falling 30 points against the US dollar in the short term.</p><p><b>The probability of the Federal Reserve's rate hike has increased compared with before the data was released.</b>The probability of the Fed's 25 basis point rate hike in March is 97.8%, compared with 95.9% before; The probability of a 75 basis point rate hike in May is 23.5%, compared with 20.9% previously.</p><p>The Bureau of Labor Statistics said employment grew broadly, primarily in leisure and hospitality, professional and business services, healthcare and construction. The WSJ said this shows that the labor market is performing strongly as the Fed prepares for a rate hike.</p><p>Analyst Carl Riccadonna said that such a large increase in employment shows that the unemployment rate will drop significantly this year. In the short term, this will not raise the 50 basis point expectation of the Fed's rate hike, especially as the Russia-Ukraine crisis intensifies, but<b>It does make the situation of federal funds even more severe later this year.</b></p><p>Analyst Katia Dmitrieva pointed to wages as a factor that frustrates employees. Despite higher-than-expected wage growth, wage growth was flat for the month, up 5.1% from a year earlier.<b>The annual increase is still more than double the pre-pandemic rate, but well below any economist's expectations.</b>With inflation at a 40-year high, this is also a potentially worrying signal for personal finances.</p><p>Analyst Steve Matthews believes this report seems to be in line with the kind of report the Fed wants to see. The labor force participation rate has improved nicely, so there has been some relief in the supply problem, which has been one of the problems on the employer side before.<b>Wage growth has also declined, so there is not much indication that wages are causing an inflationary spiral.</b></p><p>Powell has previously announced that he will support and propose a 25 basis point rate hike at the March meeting, so the market generally believes that this employment report basically has no impact on the March decision. Fed Evans also said that the (employment) report is good news, but<b>Will not change Fed Chairman Jerome Powell's plans.</b></p><p>At present, the tension in Ukraine has triggered market concerns about the economic stagflation. Coupled with Powell's cautious stance, the market is no longer aggressively betting on the Fed's rate hike of 50 basis points. It is expected that the Fed will rate hike 6 times this year, with each rate hike The range is 25 basis points.</p><p>However,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/GS\">Goldman Sachs</a>The attitude is more pessimistic, with the agency raising its U.S. inflation forecast and expecting the Federal Reserve to conduct more rate hike than expected in 2023. Erik Norland, executive director and senior economist at CME group, pointed out that no matter which path the Fed ultimately follows to implement monetary policy,<b>The impact on reality is policy tightening, and the general direction will not change at all.</b></p><p>Analysts believe that if the Federal Reserve is too fast to rate hike and shrinking balance sheet, gold prices will face a lot of room for adjustment. Previously, under the disturbance of safe-haven funds, the upper space of gold was further compressed, so the lower space was much larger than the upper space.</p><p><b>U.S. February non-farm payrolls report full text in Chinese</b></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/de0fb499f0466794df31e509152538f0\" tg-width=\"1600\" tg-height=\"7204\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p></body></html></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> source：<a href=\"https://xnews.jin10.com/webapp/details.html?id=90875&type=news\">金十数据</a></p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/09feb8feb9c4225b11dae38a4ba99e09","relate_stocks":{"159934":"黄金ETF","161125":"标普500","513500":"标普500ETF","518880":"黄金ETF","PSQ":"做空纳斯达克100指数ETF-ProShares","QQQ":"纳指100ETF","SQQQ":"纳指三倍做空ETF",".DJI":"道琼斯","BK4581":"高盛持仓","IVV":"标普500ETF-iShares","UDOW":"三倍做多道指30ETF-ProShares","DJX":"1/100道琼斯","SH":"做空标普500-Proshares","UPRO":"三倍做多标普500ETF-ProShares","DXD":"两倍做空道琼30指数ETF-ProShares","BK4534":"瑞士信贷持仓","SPXU":"三倍做空标普500ETF-ProShares","DDM":"2倍做多道指ETF-ProShares","QLD":"2倍做多纳斯达克100指数ETF-ProShares","SSO":"2倍做多标普500ETF-ProShares","GDX":"黄金矿业ETF-VanEck","NUGT":"二倍做多黄金矿业指数ETF-Direxion","DOG":"道指ETF-ProShares做空","OEF":"标普100指数ETF-iShares",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite","IAU":"黄金信托ETF-iShares","SDOW":"三倍做空道指30ETF-ProShares","SPY":"标普500ETF","TQQQ":"纳指三倍做多ETF","QID":"两倍做空纳斯达克指数ETF-ProShares","BK4559":"巴菲特持仓","BK4504":"桥水持仓","GLD":"黄金ETF-SPDR","SDS":"两倍做空标普500 ETF-ProShares","BK4550":"红杉资本持仓","OEX":"标普100",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index","DUST":"二倍做空黄金矿业指数ETF-Direxion"},"source_url":"https://xnews.jin10.com/webapp/details.html?id=90875&type=news","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2216646810","content_text":"美国2月季调后非农就业人口录得增加67.8万人，为去年7月来最大增幅，高于市场预期。1月份非农新增就业人数从46.7万人上修至48.1万人；去年12月份非农新增就业人数从51万人上修至58.8万人。 美国2月失业率录得3.8%，为2020年2月来新低。数据公布后，现货黄金短线走高2美元后回吐涨幅。美元指数短线走高32点；非美货币普遍走低，欧元兑美元短线下跌逾40点，英镑兑美元短线下跌30点。美联储加息概率较数据公布前上升。美联储3月加息25个基点的概率为97.8%，之前为95.9%；5月加息75个基点的概率为23.5%，之前为20.9%。美国劳工统计局表示，就业普遍增长，主要是休闲和酒店、专业和商业服务、医疗保健和建筑业的增长。华尔街日报称，这表明在美联储准备加息之际，劳动力市场表现强劲。分析师Carl Riccadonna表示，就业人数增幅如此之大，表明今年的失业率将大幅下降。短期内，这不会让美联储加息50个基点预期升温，尤其是在俄乌危机愈演愈烈的情况下，但它确实会让今年晚些时候的联邦基金状况变得更加严峻。分析师Katia Dmitrieva指出，工资是令员工感到沮丧的一个因素。尽管工资增幅高于预期，但当月工资增幅持平，较上年同期增长5.1%。年度增幅仍是大流行前的两倍多，但远低于任何经济学家的预期。在通胀处于40年高点的情况下，这对个人财务状况来说也是一个潜在的令人担忧的信号。分析师Steve Matthews认为，这份报告似乎很符合美联储希望看到的那种报告。劳动力参与率有了很好的提高，因此供给问题得到了一些缓解，而供给此前一直是雇主方面存在的问题之一。工资增速也有所下降，因此没有多少迹象表明工资会导致通胀螺旋式上升。 此前鲍威尔已经宣布他将支持并提议在3月份的会议上加息25个基点，因此市场普遍这份就业报告基本上对3月份的决定没有任何影响。美联储埃文斯也表示，（就业）报告是个好消息，但不会改变美联储主席鲍威尔的计划。 当前，乌克兰的紧张局势引发了市场对经济滞涨的担忧，加上鲍威尔的谨慎表态，市场不再激进押注美联储加息50个基点，预计美联储今年将加息6次，每次加息幅度为25个基点。不过，高盛态度更加悲观，该机构上调美国通胀预测，并预计美联储2023年的加息次数将超过预期。芝商所执行董事兼资深经济学家Erik Norland指出，不论美联储最终按照哪种路径执行货币政策，对现实的影响都是政策收紧，大方向不会有丝毫改变。分析师认为，如果美联储过快加息和缩表，金价则面临很大调整空间。黄金此前在避险资金的扰动下，上方空间被进一步压缩，因此下方空间远大于上方空间。美国2月非农就业报告中文全文","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"159934":0.6,"161125":0.6,"513500":0.6,"518880":0.6,"DUST":0.6,"MGCmain":1,"SGUmain":0.6,"SGCmain":0.6,"IVV":0.6,"SH":0.6,"SQQQ":0.6,"QID":0.6,"UDOW":0.6,"NQmain":0.6,"SPY":1,"OEX":0.6,"GCmain":1,"NUGT":0.6,"OEF":0.6,".IXIC":1,"DOG":0.6,"SImain":1,".DJI":1,"PSQ":0.6,"IAU":0.6,"GDX":0.6,"SSO":0.6,"ESmain":0.6,"SDOW":0.6,"DDM":0.6,"DJX":0.6,"QQQ":0.6,"MNQmain":0.6,"SPXU":0.6,"GLD":0.6,"DXD":0.6,"QLD":0.6,"UPRO":0.6,"SDS":0.6,"TQQQ":0.6,".SPX":0.6}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":317,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9096017380,"gmtCreate":1644254199295,"gmtModify":1676533905047,"author":{"id":"3581647091503821","authorId":"3581647091503821","name":"谷岳HZ","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3581647091503821","authorIdStr":"3581647091503821"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"nice","listText":"nice","text":"nice","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":5,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9096017380","repostId":"1162481920","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":760,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9012032106,"gmtCreate":1649252301953,"gmtModify":1676534477798,"author":{"id":"3581647091503821","authorId":"3581647091503821","name":"谷岳HZ","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3581647091503821","authorIdStr":"3581647091503821"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"nice","listText":"nice","text":"nice","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9012032106","repostId":"2225953075","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"2225953075","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1649230210,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/2225953075?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2022-04-06 15:30","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"Fed meeting minutes strike, accelerating shrinking balance sheet is a certainty?","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2225953075","media":"智通财经","summary":"美联储将于北京时间4月7日凌晨2点公布货币政策会议纪要。市场预期届时美联储将披露缩减资产负债表计划的细节。鉴于美国通胀率达40年高点，市场预期美联储将加速缩表进程。同时，市场也将关注美联储进一步加息的","content":"<p><html><head></head><body>The Federal Reserve will release the minutes of its monetary policy meeting at 2 a.m. Beijing time on April 7. The market expects the Federal Reserve to disclose details of its plan to reduce its balance sheet. Given that the inflation rate in the United States has reached a 40-year high, the market expects the Federal Reserve to accelerate the process of shrinking balance sheet. At the same time, the market will also pay attention to clues of further rate hike by the Federal Reserve.</p><p><b>Shrinking balance sheet Process or Acceleration</b></p><p>Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell said after the March Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting that there will be \"more detailed discussions\" on the $8.9 trillion balance sheet. At that meeting, the Fed announced its first rate hike since 2018.</p><p>The market expects that the Fed's shrinking balance sheet this time may be faster than during 2017-2019.</p><p>California Gov. Lael Brainard said Tuesday that the shrinking balance sheet process could kick off as early as May and much faster than in 2017. It is reported that during the period of quantitative tightening from 2017 to 2019, the Federal Reserve began to reduce assets by US $10 billion per month, and gradually raised the upper limit to US $50 billion per month a year later.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/26879c67eeb5a52ca248b2f6626b6d19\" tg-width=\"838\" tg-height=\"463\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p>It wasn't until last month that Fed officials stopped buying bonds as soaring inflation accelerated plans to cut the balance sheet, seen as a passive way to tighten monetary policy, complementing rate hike.</p><p>Stephen Stanley, chief economist at Amherst Pierpont Securities LLC, said: \"They will have a comprehensive plan. They want to be ready to be able to announce this plan in May. With inflation so high, this has become an urgent issue.\"</p><p>Economists say that the monthly reduction of the asset ceiling may reach $100 billion, which is about $1 trillion per year.<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/JPM\">JPMorgan Chase</a>Michael Feroli of the US Treasury Bond and mortgage-backed securities (MBS) are capped at $60 billion and $30 billion, respectively, and Krishna Guha of Evercore ISI is expecting $50 billion and $30 billion, respectively.<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/DB\">Deutsche Bank</a>It is expected to be $60 billion and $45 billion, respectively.</p><p>With inflation already at its highest level since 1982, the Fed's tapering could peak relatively quickly.</p><p>Aneta Markowska, chief U.S. financial economist at Jefferies LLC, said this is likely to be \"a very short phase, only two months, and there is really no need for long-term phased implementation.\"</p><p><b>May rate hike 50 basis points?</b></p><p>There is a high degree of uncertainty about the impact of shrinking the balance sheet on the economy. Shrinking balance sheet \"could be the equivalent of rate hike again,\" Powell said. The FOMC has committed to using interest rates rather than assets as its primary monetary policy tool.</p><p>Diane Swonk, chief economist at Grant Thornton, said: \"They do prefer to use rate hike as the main tool for tightening policy. The Fed will adjust its balance sheet when necessary, but for now it wants to focus on interest rates.\"</p><p>Tapering will be the latest move by the Federal Reserve to try to ease inflationary pressures. In March, the Federal Reserve raised its key interest rate by 25 basis points to a target range of 0.25%-0.5%. The Fed had kept borrowing costs near zero for the previous two years to keep the economy safe from the pandemic.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3ebea685008f7e1891449282bd478338\" tg-width=\"805\" tg-height=\"392\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p>The Fed's dot plot shows officials expect the median benchmark rate to end 2022 at around 1.9% before rising to 2.8% in 2023.</p><p>While shrinking balance sheet details will be the focus of the minutes, investors will also be carefully looking for clues on whether the Fed will rate hike 50 basis points in May. Powell said on March 22 that he was willing to raise interest rates further at the May meeting if necessary. Other policymakers have since expressed the same views.</p><p>Markowska said, \"I think there will be discussions about 50 basis points in rate hike, and at least'a few 'or'many' players will be open to rate hike in the next few months.\"</p><p></body></html></p>","source":"stock_zhitongcaijing","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Fed meeting minutes strike, accelerating shrinking balance sheet is a certainty?</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nFed meeting minutes strike, accelerating shrinking balance sheet is a certainty?\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">智通财经</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2022-04-06 15:30</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><html><head></head><body>The Federal Reserve will release the minutes of its monetary policy meeting at 2 a.m. Beijing time on April 7. The market expects the Federal Reserve to disclose details of its plan to reduce its balance sheet. Given that the inflation rate in the United States has reached a 40-year high, the market expects the Federal Reserve to accelerate the process of shrinking balance sheet. At the same time, the market will also pay attention to clues of further rate hike by the Federal Reserve.</p><p><b>Shrinking balance sheet Process or Acceleration</b></p><p>Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell said after the March Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting that there will be \"more detailed discussions\" on the $8.9 trillion balance sheet. At that meeting, the Fed announced its first rate hike since 2018.</p><p>The market expects that the Fed's shrinking balance sheet this time may be faster than during 2017-2019.</p><p>California Gov. Lael Brainard said Tuesday that the shrinking balance sheet process could kick off as early as May and much faster than in 2017. It is reported that during the period of quantitative tightening from 2017 to 2019, the Federal Reserve began to reduce assets by US $10 billion per month, and gradually raised the upper limit to US $50 billion per month a year later.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/26879c67eeb5a52ca248b2f6626b6d19\" tg-width=\"838\" tg-height=\"463\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p>It wasn't until last month that Fed officials stopped buying bonds as soaring inflation accelerated plans to cut the balance sheet, seen as a passive way to tighten monetary policy, complementing rate hike.</p><p>Stephen Stanley, chief economist at Amherst Pierpont Securities LLC, said: \"They will have a comprehensive plan. They want to be ready to be able to announce this plan in May. With inflation so high, this has become an urgent issue.\"</p><p>Economists say that the monthly reduction of the asset ceiling may reach $100 billion, which is about $1 trillion per year.<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/JPM\">JPMorgan Chase</a>Michael Feroli of the US Treasury Bond and mortgage-backed securities (MBS) are capped at $60 billion and $30 billion, respectively, and Krishna Guha of Evercore ISI is expecting $50 billion and $30 billion, respectively.<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/DB\">Deutsche Bank</a>It is expected to be $60 billion and $45 billion, respectively.</p><p>With inflation already at its highest level since 1982, the Fed's tapering could peak relatively quickly.</p><p>Aneta Markowska, chief U.S. financial economist at Jefferies LLC, said this is likely to be \"a very short phase, only two months, and there is really no need for long-term phased implementation.\"</p><p><b>May rate hike 50 basis points?</b></p><p>There is a high degree of uncertainty about the impact of shrinking the balance sheet on the economy. Shrinking balance sheet \"could be the equivalent of rate hike again,\" Powell said. The FOMC has committed to using interest rates rather than assets as its primary monetary policy tool.</p><p>Diane Swonk, chief economist at Grant Thornton, said: \"They do prefer to use rate hike as the main tool for tightening policy. The Fed will adjust its balance sheet when necessary, but for now it wants to focus on interest rates.\"</p><p>Tapering will be the latest move by the Federal Reserve to try to ease inflationary pressures. In March, the Federal Reserve raised its key interest rate by 25 basis points to a target range of 0.25%-0.5%. The Fed had kept borrowing costs near zero for the previous two years to keep the economy safe from the pandemic.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3ebea685008f7e1891449282bd478338\" tg-width=\"805\" tg-height=\"392\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p>The Fed's dot plot shows officials expect the median benchmark rate to end 2022 at around 1.9% before rising to 2.8% in 2023.</p><p>While shrinking balance sheet details will be the focus of the minutes, investors will also be carefully looking for clues on whether the Fed will rate hike 50 basis points in May. Powell said on March 22 that he was willing to raise interest rates further at the May meeting if necessary. Other policymakers have since expressed the same views.</p><p>Markowska said, \"I think there will be discussions about 50 basis points in rate hike, and at least'a few 'or'many' players will be open to rate hike in the next few months.\"</p><p></body></html></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> source：<a href=\"http://www.zhitongcaijing.com/content/detail/696476.html\">智通财经</a></p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6a1de7aced7748879f251930783a3cb1","relate_stocks":{"161125":"标普500","513500":"标普500ETF","SDOW":"三倍做空道指30ETF-ProShares","OEF":"标普100指数ETF-iShares","TQQQ":"纳指三倍做多ETF","DOG":"道指ETF-ProShares做空","QID":"两倍做空纳斯达克指数ETF-ProShares",".DJI":"道琼斯","SDS":"两倍做空标普500 ETF-ProShares","BK4504":"桥水持仓","BK4559":"巴菲特持仓","BK4550":"红杉资本持仓","SQQQ":"纳指三倍做空ETF","OEX":"标普100","PSQ":"做空纳斯达克100指数ETF-ProShares",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite","QQQ":"纳指100ETF","UDOW":"三倍做多道指30ETF-ProShares","UPRO":"三倍做多标普500ETF-ProShares","SPXU":"三倍做空标普500ETF-ProShares","BK4581":"高盛持仓","SH":"做空标普500-Proshares",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index","IVV":"标普500ETF-iShares","SSO":"2倍做多标普500ETF-ProShares","QLD":"2倍做多纳斯达克100指数ETF-ProShares","DXD":"两倍做空道琼30指数ETF-ProShares","BK4534":"瑞士信贷持仓","DDM":"2倍做多道指ETF-ProShares","DJX":"1/100道琼斯","SPY":"标普500ETF"},"source_url":"http://www.zhitongcaijing.com/content/detail/696476.html","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2225953075","content_text":"美联储将于北京时间4月7日凌晨2点公布货币政策会议纪要。市场预期届时美联储将披露缩减资产负债表计划的细节。鉴于美国通胀率达40年高点，市场预期美联储将加速缩表进程。同时，市场也将关注美联储进一步加息的线索。缩表进程或加速美联储主席鲍威尔在3月联邦公开市场委员会(FOMC)会议后表示，将对8.9万亿美元的资产负债表进行“更详细的讨论”。 在那次会议上，美联储宣布自2018年以来首次加息。市场预期，美联储此次的缩表速度可能会比 2017 年至 2019 年期间更快。加州州长Lael Brainard 周二表示，缩表进程最早可能在5月启动，而且比2017年快得多。据悉，在2017年至2019年的量化紧缩时期，美联储开始每月缩减100亿美元资产，一年后逐渐将上限提高到每月缩减500亿美元。直到上个月，美联储官员才停止购买债券，原因是通胀飙升加速了削减资产负债表的计划，这被视为收紧货币政策的一种被动方式，与加息相辅相成。Amherst Pierpont Securities LLC首席经济学家Stephen Stanley表示:“他们将有一个全面的计划。他们希望为能够在5月宣布这一计划做好准备。由于通货膨胀如此之高，这已成为一个紧迫的问题。”经济学家表示，每月缩减资产上限或达1000亿美元，每年减少大约1万亿美元。摩根大通的Michael Feroli估计，美国国债和抵押贷款支持证券(MBS)的上限分别为600亿美元和300亿美元，Evercore ISI的Krishna Guha预计分别为500亿美元和300亿美元，德意志银行预计分别为600亿美元和450亿美元。由于通货膨胀率已达到1982年以来的最高水平，美联储的缩减规模可能会相对较快地达到峰值。Jefferies LLC首席美国金融经济学家Aneta Markowska表示，这可能是“一个非常短的阶段，只有两个月，确实没有必要长期分阶段实施。”5月加息50个基点？缩减资产负债表对经济的影响存在高度不确定性。鲍威尔表示，缩表“可能相当于再次加息”。FOMC 承诺使用利率而非资产作为其主要货币政策工具。Grant Thornton首席经济学家Diane Swonk表示：“他们确实更愿意把加息作为收紧政策的主要工具。美联储将在必要时对资产负债表进行调整，但目前希望将重点放在利率上。”缩减资产规模将是美联储试图缓解通胀压力的最新举措。今年3月，美联储将关键利率上调25个基点，至0.25% - 0.5%的目标区间。此前两年，美联储一直将借贷成本维持在接近于零的水平，以使经济免受疫情影响。美联储的点阵图显示，官员们预计，2022年年底基准利率的中值将在1.9%左右，然后在2023年升至2.8%。尽管缩表细节将成为会议纪要的焦点，但投资者也将仔细寻找美联储是否会在5月加息50个基点的线索。鲍威尔在3月22日表示，如果有必要，他愿意在5月会议上进一步上调利率。此后，其他政策制定者也表达了同样的观点。Markowska称，\"我认为将会讨论加息50个基点的问题，未来几个月至少有‘几个’或‘许多’参与者对加息持开放态度。\"","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"161125":0.6,"513500":0.6,".IXIC":1,"SPXU":0.6,"MNQmain":0.6,"SH":0.6,"DJX":0.6,"SDOW":0.6,"QID":0.6,"OEF":0.6,"IVV":0.6,"SQQQ":0.6,"SPY":1,"ESmain":0.6,"SDS":0.6,"TQQQ":0.6,".DJI":1,"DXD":0.6,"OEX":0.6,"SSO":0.6,"UDOW":0.6,".SPX":0.6,"NQmain":0.6,"DOG":0.6,"UPRO":0.6,"QQQ":0.6,"PSQ":0.6,"QLD":0.6,"DDM":0.6}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":592,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9034991841,"gmtCreate":1647746931413,"gmtModify":1676534262790,"author":{"id":"3581647091503821","authorId":"3581647091503821","name":"谷岳HZ","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3581647091503821","authorIdStr":"3581647091503821"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"nice","listText":"nice","text":"nice","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9034991841","repostId":"2220000701","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":273,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9036198863,"gmtCreate":1647007893581,"gmtModify":1676534186698,"author":{"id":"3581647091503821","authorId":"3581647091503821","name":"谷岳HZ","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3581647091503821","authorIdStr":"3581647091503821"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"nice","listText":"nice","text":"nice","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9036198863","repostId":"1152794275","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1152794275","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1646963681,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1152794275?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2022-03-11 09:54","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"Break 7 and run 8? How long can U.S. inflation exceed market expectations?","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1152794275","media":"川阅全球宏观","summary":"如油价维持120美元/桶的高位超过2个月，年内美国通胀可能破9%。","content":"<p><html><head></head><body><b>In February 2022, the U.S. inflation data set a new 40-year high, with the CPI increasing by 7.9% year-on-year (expected 7.8%) and the core CPI increasing by 6.4% year-on-year (unchanged from expectations).</b>After the data was released, the 10-year US Treasury yields jumped 5bps, almost standing at 2%.</p><p>Since the third quarter of 2020, disturbances on both sides of supply and demand have caused U.S. inflation to continue to exceed expectations. Unexpected factors have increased at the beginning of 2022. The Ukraine crisis and U.S. and European sanctions against Russia have triggered a surge in crude oil and other commodities.<b>From this point of view, the probability of subsequent U.S. inflation exceeding expectations is still high. According to our model, under extreme circumstances, if oil prices remain at a high of US $120/barrel for more than 2 months, U.S. inflation may exceed 9% within the year.</b></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c5b78af5c0a8280ee85c36ace3e52246\" tg-width=\"896\" tg-height=\"501\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><b>This article discusses the inflation situation in the United States from three dimensions:</b></p><p>First, the soaring inflation in the United States has repeatedly exceeded market expectations. As shown in Figure 1, since August 2020,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/C\">Citigroup</a>The U.S. inflation surprise index continues to be positive and hit a new high in the past 20 years. Since the end of 2021, catalyzed by various unexpected factors such as the Ukraine crisis, the index has soared sharply. Even if there is a slight correction in the short term, it will only last for one month. Judging from the value of the core CPI, since the beginning of 2022, the jump in U.S. inflation has exceeded the trend in the early days of the Great Inflation in the late 1960s, and the market's concerns about stagflation have intensified (Figure 2).</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/af3758f5d4fcb1fd71370e6ef62a72b6\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"651\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4fff0c41a536000b5ccbe4275579ec75\" tg-width=\"896\" tg-height=\"557\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><b>So how long will U.S. inflation last to exceed market expectations, and how big will it be?</b></p><p><b>On the one hand, it depends on the additional inflation risks brought by the situation in Ukraine.</b>Given that Russia occupies an important position in the global commodity market, the sanctions imposed by the United States and Europe on Russia may further push up commodity prices (Figure 3). The British and American sanctions on Russian oil have the most significant impact on the U.S. CPI. According to our model, if the average price of WTI crude oil records 120 US dollars/barrel in March and April, the U.S. CPI will exceed 8.5% in March, and the CPI will exceed 9% in April. Against the background that oil prices and natural gas prices are difficult to fall back, the high level of U.S. CPI may continue and will not ease until 2023.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a5d8979cbd501ea1f9caaeb0a215f631\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"636\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7a5d4ba9997e1bd852f31f3e2d2aa285\" tg-width=\"914\" tg-height=\"511\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><b>However, the impact of bulk prices on U.S. core CPI may be limited.</b>Our model shows that the U.S. core CPI may peak at the end of the first quarter of 2022 and is expected to fall back below 4% by the end of the year (Figure 5).</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/fbd1458cbc6a7d828aa1b26f434d4288\" tg-width=\"910\" tg-height=\"512\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><b>Finally, from the perspective of risk, the soaring inflation in the United States is driven by both sides of supply and demand, and the impact of subsequent supply and demand may be divided into 6 or 4.</b></p><p><b>Supply side, on the one hand,</b>Although the growth rate of used car prices slowed down in February, the slow easing of chip shortages may keep their prices high. In addition, rising electricity prices may impact the supply of metal raw materials.</p><p><b>On the other hand, under the shortage of labor supply,</b>The wage-price spiral has emerged. In 2022, the Atlanta Fed's hourly wage growth tracker hit a new high since 1998; In terms of industries, although the month-on-month growth rate of some industries has declined, the average year-on-year growth rate of various industries generally exceeds 4%, and the average year-on-year growth rate of leisure and hotel industries remains at a high level of nearly 12% (Figure 6-Figure 7).</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f807fbe88a5fbbe5b9fc73c9322643d8\" tg-width=\"910\" tg-height=\"528\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/96f635c76b003e82355531c0deeb0969\" tg-width=\"903\" tg-height=\"568\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><b>Demand side,</b>The year-on-year growth rate of housing rents has soared from less than 2% in March 2021 to 4.2% in February 2022 (Figure 9). According to our analysis of historical data, the S&P U.S. Housing Price Index, as a leading indicator of rent, is about 15 months ahead of rents, and the index peaked and fell in August 2021. We expect the growth rate of housing rents to fall back until early 2023.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/582511db4c3d0059cd7c8bf61b820afc\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"461\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><b>In terms of assets, since Russia entered Ukraine, funds have flowed into the bond market driven by risk aversion.</b>Inflation expectations implied by the 10-year U.S. bond rose, real interest rates turned downward, and the spread of 10Y-2Y U.S. bonds accelerated to less than 30bps (Figure 10-Figure 11). In February, the growth rate of U.S. core inflation was the same as market expectations, the increase in short-term 2-year US Treasury yields was almost the same as that of long-term 10-year U.S. bonds, and the spread between 10Y-2Y U.S. bonds remained at around 25bps.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2c5218240392b3b586a446ae667f4287\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"605\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1858ce699b90521c7fcd984f59001819\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"606\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><b>Risk warning:</b>The mutation of Novel Coronavirus caused the vaccine to fail, and the outbreak of confirmed cases caused the economy to return to blockade; The out-of-control situation in Ukraine caused violent fluctuations in commodity prices, and the sharp rise in inflation in the United States forced the Federal Reserve to significantly accelerate the pace of tightening.</p><p></body></html></p>","source":"lsy1582083733592","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Break 7 and run 8? How long can U.S. inflation exceed market expectations?</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nBreak 7 and run 8? How long can U.S. inflation exceed market expectations?\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">川阅全球宏观</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2022-03-11 09:54</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><html><head></head><body><b>In February 2022, the U.S. inflation data set a new 40-year high, with the CPI increasing by 7.9% year-on-year (expected 7.8%) and the core CPI increasing by 6.4% year-on-year (unchanged from expectations).</b>After the data was released, the 10-year US Treasury yields jumped 5bps, almost standing at 2%.</p><p>Since the third quarter of 2020, disturbances on both sides of supply and demand have caused U.S. inflation to continue to exceed expectations. Unexpected factors have increased at the beginning of 2022. The Ukraine crisis and U.S. and European sanctions against Russia have triggered a surge in crude oil and other commodities.<b>From this point of view, the probability of subsequent U.S. inflation exceeding expectations is still high. According to our model, under extreme circumstances, if oil prices remain at a high of US $120/barrel for more than 2 months, U.S. inflation may exceed 9% within the year.</b></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c5b78af5c0a8280ee85c36ace3e52246\" tg-width=\"896\" tg-height=\"501\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><b>This article discusses the inflation situation in the United States from three dimensions:</b></p><p>First, the soaring inflation in the United States has repeatedly exceeded market expectations. As shown in Figure 1, since August 2020,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/C\">Citigroup</a>The U.S. inflation surprise index continues to be positive and hit a new high in the past 20 years. Since the end of 2021, catalyzed by various unexpected factors such as the Ukraine crisis, the index has soared sharply. Even if there is a slight correction in the short term, it will only last for one month. Judging from the value of the core CPI, since the beginning of 2022, the jump in U.S. inflation has exceeded the trend in the early days of the Great Inflation in the late 1960s, and the market's concerns about stagflation have intensified (Figure 2).</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/af3758f5d4fcb1fd71370e6ef62a72b6\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"651\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4fff0c41a536000b5ccbe4275579ec75\" tg-width=\"896\" tg-height=\"557\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><b>So how long will U.S. inflation last to exceed market expectations, and how big will it be?</b></p><p><b>On the one hand, it depends on the additional inflation risks brought by the situation in Ukraine.</b>Given that Russia occupies an important position in the global commodity market, the sanctions imposed by the United States and Europe on Russia may further push up commodity prices (Figure 3). The British and American sanctions on Russian oil have the most significant impact on the U.S. CPI. According to our model, if the average price of WTI crude oil records 120 US dollars/barrel in March and April, the U.S. CPI will exceed 8.5% in March, and the CPI will exceed 9% in April. Against the background that oil prices and natural gas prices are difficult to fall back, the high level of U.S. CPI may continue and will not ease until 2023.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a5d8979cbd501ea1f9caaeb0a215f631\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"636\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7a5d4ba9997e1bd852f31f3e2d2aa285\" tg-width=\"914\" tg-height=\"511\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><b>However, the impact of bulk prices on U.S. core CPI may be limited.</b>Our model shows that the U.S. core CPI may peak at the end of the first quarter of 2022 and is expected to fall back below 4% by the end of the year (Figure 5).</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/fbd1458cbc6a7d828aa1b26f434d4288\" tg-width=\"910\" tg-height=\"512\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><b>Finally, from the perspective of risk, the soaring inflation in the United States is driven by both sides of supply and demand, and the impact of subsequent supply and demand may be divided into 6 or 4.</b></p><p><b>Supply side, on the one hand,</b>Although the growth rate of used car prices slowed down in February, the slow easing of chip shortages may keep their prices high. In addition, rising electricity prices may impact the supply of metal raw materials.</p><p><b>On the other hand, under the shortage of labor supply,</b>The wage-price spiral has emerged. In 2022, the Atlanta Fed's hourly wage growth tracker hit a new high since 1998; In terms of industries, although the month-on-month growth rate of some industries has declined, the average year-on-year growth rate of various industries generally exceeds 4%, and the average year-on-year growth rate of leisure and hotel industries remains at a high level of nearly 12% (Figure 6-Figure 7).</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f807fbe88a5fbbe5b9fc73c9322643d8\" tg-width=\"910\" tg-height=\"528\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/96f635c76b003e82355531c0deeb0969\" tg-width=\"903\" tg-height=\"568\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><b>Demand side,</b>The year-on-year growth rate of housing rents has soared from less than 2% in March 2021 to 4.2% in February 2022 (Figure 9). According to our analysis of historical data, the S&P U.S. Housing Price Index, as a leading indicator of rent, is about 15 months ahead of rents, and the index peaked and fell in August 2021. We expect the growth rate of housing rents to fall back until early 2023.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/582511db4c3d0059cd7c8bf61b820afc\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"461\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><b>In terms of assets, since Russia entered Ukraine, funds have flowed into the bond market driven by risk aversion.</b>Inflation expectations implied by the 10-year U.S. bond rose, real interest rates turned downward, and the spread of 10Y-2Y U.S. bonds accelerated to less than 30bps (Figure 10-Figure 11). In February, the growth rate of U.S. core inflation was the same as market expectations, the increase in short-term 2-year US Treasury yields was almost the same as that of long-term 10-year U.S. bonds, and the spread between 10Y-2Y U.S. bonds remained at around 25bps.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2c5218240392b3b586a446ae667f4287\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"605\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1858ce699b90521c7fcd984f59001819\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"606\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><b>Risk warning:</b>The mutation of Novel Coronavirus caused the vaccine to fail, and the outbreak of confirmed cases caused the economy to return to blockade; The out-of-control situation in Ukraine caused violent fluctuations in commodity prices, and the sharp rise in inflation in the United States forced the Federal Reserve to significantly accelerate the pace of tightening.</p><p></body></html></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> source：<a href=\"https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s/loyhU02SnG3Vg04am10smw\">川阅全球宏观</a></p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/627bc890436e46f74a0fe8143398a725","relate_stocks":{".DJI":"道琼斯"},"source_url":"https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s/loyhU02SnG3Vg04am10smw","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1152794275","content_text":"2022年2月美国通胀数据刷新40年来新高，CPI同比增7.9%（预期7.8%）、核心CPI同比增幅6.4%（持平于预期）。数据发布后10年期美债利率跳升5bps，险些站上2%。2020年三季度以来，供需两侧的扰动使得美国通胀持续超预期，2022年开年意外因素又增多，乌克兰危机、美欧对俄制裁引发原油等大宗商品的暴涨。如此看来，后续美国通胀超预期概率依旧较大，根据我们的模型，极端情况下，如油价维持120美元/桶的高位超过2个月，年内美国通胀可能破9%。在本文从三个维度对美国通胀的态势进行了探讨：首先是美国通胀飙升屡超市场预期。如图1所示，2020年8月以来，花旗的美国通胀意外指数持续为正并且创近20年来新高，2021年末以来，在乌克兰危机等各种意外因素的催化下，该指数飙升态势骤升，即便短期稍有回调，也仅持续一个月。而从核心CPI的数值上看，2022年初以来，美国通胀的跳升俨然已超过20世纪60年代末大通胀初期的态势，市场对于滞涨的担忧加剧（图2）。那么美国通胀超市场预期将持续多久、幅度又会有多大？一方面取决于乌克兰局势带来的额外的通胀风险。鉴于俄罗斯在全球大宗商品市场中占有重要地位，美欧对于俄罗斯的制裁可能进一步推高大宗商品的价格（图3）。而英美对于俄罗斯石油的制裁对于美国CPI的影响最为显著，根据我们的模型，如果WTI原油在3月、4月的均价录得120美元/桶，美国3月CPI将突破8.5%，4月CPI将破9%。在油价和天然气价格难以回落的背景下，美国CPI的高位可能仍将持续，直至2023年才能有所缓解。不过，大宗价格对于美国核心CPI的影响可能有限。我们的模型显示，美国核心CPI或在2022年一季度末见顶，并有望在年末回落至低于4%（图5）。最后，从风险的维度来看，美国通胀飙升是供需两侧推动的，后续供需的影响可能6、4分成。供给侧，一方面，尽管2月二手车价格增速放缓，但芯片短缺缓解缓慢可能使得其价格持续处于高位，此外电价上涨可能冲击金属原材料的供给。另一方面，劳动力供给的短缺下，工资-物价螺旋式上升已显现。2022年亚特兰大联储的时薪增速跟踪指标创1998年以来的新高；分行业来看，尽管部分行业的环比增速有所回落，但是各行业同比增速均值普遍破4%，休闲和酒店业同比增速均值仍维持近12%的高位（图6-图7）。需求侧，住房租金同比增速已经从2021年3月的不足2%飙升至2022年2月的4.2%（图9），根据我们对于历史数据的分析，标普美国房价指数作为房租的先行指标，约领先房租15个月，该指数于2021年8月见顶回落，我们预计住房租金增速的回落要到2023年初。资产方面，俄罗斯进军乌克兰以来，避险情绪驱动下资金流入债市。10年期美债隐含的通胀预期上升，实际利率转为下行，而10Y-2Y美债利差加速下行至不足30bps（图10-图11）。2月美国核心通胀增速与市场预期持平下，短端2年期美债利率升幅与长端10年期美债几乎持平，10Y-2Y美债利差维持在25bps左右的水平。风险提示：新冠病毒变异导致疫苗失效，确诊病例大爆发导致经济重回封锁；乌克兰局势失控造成大宗商品价格剧烈波动，美国通胀急升倒逼美联储大幅加快紧缩节奏。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{".DJI":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":457,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9038364491,"gmtCreate":1646746773301,"gmtModify":1676534157474,"author":{"id":"3581647091503821","authorId":"3581647091503821","name":"谷岳HZ","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3581647091503821","authorIdStr":"3581647091503821"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"nice","listText":"nice","text":"nice","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9038364491","repostId":"1145569107","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":448,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9031468629,"gmtCreate":1646646790129,"gmtModify":1676534146486,"author":{"id":"3581647091503821","authorId":"3581647091503821","name":"谷岳HZ","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3581647091503821","authorIdStr":"3581647091503821"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"nice","listText":"nice","text":"nice","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9031468629","repostId":"1169491857","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1169491857","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1646626454,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1169491857?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2022-03-07 12:14","market":"hk","language":"zh","title":"Bank of America: Global Recession Next, Then QE5 Comes","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1169491857","media":"金十数据","summary":"美联储和欧洲央行现在正绝望地陷入资本市场通货紧缩和主要市场通货膨胀之间。俄乌局势及相关制裁持续升级，市场对经济滞涨的担忧也在不断加剧。美国银行首席投资策略师Michael Hartnett警告称，尽管","content":"<p><html><head></head><body>The Fed and ECB are now desperately stuck between capital market deflation and major market inflation. The situation between Russia and Ukraine and related sanctions continue to escalate, and market concerns about economic stagflation are also intensifying. Michael Hartnett, chief investment strategist at Bank of America, warned,<b>Although the Federal Reserve is still slapping its face and pretending to rate hike \"six or seven times\", the threat of global economic recession is looming with soaring oil prices and frequent \"bloodshed\" accidents in financial markets.</b></p><p>With that in mind, the Bank of America strategist noted that it is too early to price a policy shift from the Fed or ECB,<b>\"When the S&P 500<3800-4000点，IG CDX >At 100 basis points, QE5 will come \".</b>Hartnett suggested that investors should take the most defensive measures when the Federal Reserve has not yet cut interest rates.</p><p>Hartnett concluded in the report:</p><p>\"The Russia-Ukraine conflict means a bigger inflationary shock, a smaller interest rate shock, a bigger recessionary shock, and the Fed and ECB find themselves in a dilemma.\" There's no question,<b>War means inflation.</b>This year, the market has witnessed its strongest commodity price index since 1915. Coal and aluminum prices hit record highs, and oil and wheat prices soared to their highest levels since 2008.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9dd0ecc59c199e3bba04e70b70eea834\" tg-width=\"807\" tg-height=\"614\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p><b>War will bring economic stagflation.</b>Only commodities outperformed inflation when the oil crisis broke out in 1973. Wall Street suffered a heavy setback, the S&P index fell to the bottom of-40%, technology stocks, consumer stocks, banking stocks, and small-cap stocks plummeted, and stagflation severely dragged down the U.S. economy.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6babd3d6d3e566a0086c204fc2195b78\" tg-width=\"1037\" tg-height=\"645\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p>At that time, the Federal Reserve initially chose to continue tightening policy, but oil prices did not reverse in 1974 and remained structurally high. Eventually,<b>The recession ended only after the Federal Reserve cut its Federal Funds rate from 14% to 3%.</b></p><p>The sell-off surges</p><p>Markets also appear to be starting to sniff out impending stagflation, as evidenced by record outflows from European equities and the largest inflows into energy and materials in years.</p><p>Data show that as of the week of March 2, as much as $46.3 billion of funds flowed into cash, the largest inflow in nine weeks, while $1.9 billion flowed into gold; $5 billion was withdrawn from stocks, the first capital outflow in 10 weeks, among which European stock markets suffered the largest capital outflow ever ($600 million); $10.6 billion was withdrawn from the bond market, of which $1.6 billion flowed out of emerging market bonds, the largest outflow since March 21 last year. The outflow of mortgage-backed bonds was the largest since March 20 last year. Hartnett warned that this is just an early wave of selling, and more are to come. Bank of America's ultra-high net-worth private clients are still buying the dip. The market is still filled with voices such as \"the Fed will become dovish\", \"liquidity is still sufficient\", \"stocks are oversold\", \"tradable rebound\", \"buy big tech stocks\", \"there is no recession in the United States\" and so on.</p><p>While investors recognize external shocks, they do not expect them to reduce earnings.<b>It is only when there is a liquidity shift that illiquidity will force investors to sell their holdings.</b>Hartnett believes that this will happen in a few weeks, when the Fed rate hike lands, followed by the shrinking balance sheet.</p><p>Unlike optimistic clients, Bank of America strategists believe that as investors will liquidate ahead of schedule, the turmoil caused by geopolicies will once again sweep across finance and foreign exchange reserves.</p><p>Meanwhile, credit spreads are widening, volatility is moving higher, and market confidence in the 2022 bull market is fading.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/308def26f84135aad8cc2172f6fbdedb\" tg-width=\"768\" tg-height=\"464\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p>The \"collapse\" of consensus</p><p>Hartnett pointed out that investors will see an approaching recession next, and the economic recession has become a consensus: the market generally expects GDP/EPS (earnings per share) to decline further; U.S. GDP is expected to be 3.7% in 2022, EU 4.0%, 2022 U.S. stock market EPS is 8.3%, and Europe is 4.7%.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ca77d10a0ec4568266b6dd5b749b3d6a\" tg-width=\"1020\" tg-height=\"1199\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p>Meanwhile, the U.S. economy is effectively splitting in two, with U.S. retail sales still above COVID-19 pandemic's top 24%, and even though the savings rate has reached 2019 levels, the<b>The real income of residents is declining.</b></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d0d023a53f944acc7950a4631e9f133d\" tg-width=\"866\" tg-height=\"335\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p>With inflation soaring, Bank of America predicts that if real wage growth in the United States remains negative ahead of the summer U.S. recession, it's safe to assume that a recession is now brewing. The non-farm payrolls data in February showed that hourly wages unexpectedly flattened, and wage growth may not continue to grow at a rapid rate.</p><p>However, the stock market may not necessarily plummet.<b>Any news of a de-escalation in the Russia-Ukraine conflict will lead to a sharp rally in risk assets</b>, Hartnett said:</p><p>\"The sell-off is going to be chaotic. The Fed and ECB are now desperately stuck between capital market deflation and major market inflation.\"</body></html></p>","source":"jssj","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Bank of America: Global Recession Next, Then QE5 Comes</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nBank of America: Global Recession Next, Then QE5 Comes\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">金十数据</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2022-03-07 12:14</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><html><head></head><body>The Fed and ECB are now desperately stuck between capital market deflation and major market inflation. The situation between Russia and Ukraine and related sanctions continue to escalate, and market concerns about economic stagflation are also intensifying. Michael Hartnett, chief investment strategist at Bank of America, warned,<b>Although the Federal Reserve is still slapping its face and pretending to rate hike \"six or seven times\", the threat of global economic recession is looming with soaring oil prices and frequent \"bloodshed\" accidents in financial markets.</b></p><p>With that in mind, the Bank of America strategist noted that it is too early to price a policy shift from the Fed or ECB,<b>\"When the S&P 500<3800-4000点，IG CDX >At 100 basis points, QE5 will come \".</b>Hartnett suggested that investors should take the most defensive measures when the Federal Reserve has not yet cut interest rates.</p><p>Hartnett concluded in the report:</p><p>\"The Russia-Ukraine conflict means a bigger inflationary shock, a smaller interest rate shock, a bigger recessionary shock, and the Fed and ECB find themselves in a dilemma.\" There's no question,<b>War means inflation.</b>This year, the market has witnessed its strongest commodity price index since 1915. Coal and aluminum prices hit record highs, and oil and wheat prices soared to their highest levels since 2008.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9dd0ecc59c199e3bba04e70b70eea834\" tg-width=\"807\" tg-height=\"614\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p><b>War will bring economic stagflation.</b>Only commodities outperformed inflation when the oil crisis broke out in 1973. Wall Street suffered a heavy setback, the S&P index fell to the bottom of-40%, technology stocks, consumer stocks, banking stocks, and small-cap stocks plummeted, and stagflation severely dragged down the U.S. economy.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6babd3d6d3e566a0086c204fc2195b78\" tg-width=\"1037\" tg-height=\"645\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p>At that time, the Federal Reserve initially chose to continue tightening policy, but oil prices did not reverse in 1974 and remained structurally high. Eventually,<b>The recession ended only after the Federal Reserve cut its Federal Funds rate from 14% to 3%.</b></p><p>The sell-off surges</p><p>Markets also appear to be starting to sniff out impending stagflation, as evidenced by record outflows from European equities and the largest inflows into energy and materials in years.</p><p>Data show that as of the week of March 2, as much as $46.3 billion of funds flowed into cash, the largest inflow in nine weeks, while $1.9 billion flowed into gold; $5 billion was withdrawn from stocks, the first capital outflow in 10 weeks, among which European stock markets suffered the largest capital outflow ever ($600 million); $10.6 billion was withdrawn from the bond market, of which $1.6 billion flowed out of emerging market bonds, the largest outflow since March 21 last year. The outflow of mortgage-backed bonds was the largest since March 20 last year. Hartnett warned that this is just an early wave of selling, and more are to come. Bank of America's ultra-high net-worth private clients are still buying the dip. The market is still filled with voices such as \"the Fed will become dovish\", \"liquidity is still sufficient\", \"stocks are oversold\", \"tradable rebound\", \"buy big tech stocks\", \"there is no recession in the United States\" and so on.</p><p>While investors recognize external shocks, they do not expect them to reduce earnings.<b>It is only when there is a liquidity shift that illiquidity will force investors to sell their holdings.</b>Hartnett believes that this will happen in a few weeks, when the Fed rate hike lands, followed by the shrinking balance sheet.</p><p>Unlike optimistic clients, Bank of America strategists believe that as investors will liquidate ahead of schedule, the turmoil caused by geopolicies will once again sweep across finance and foreign exchange reserves.</p><p>Meanwhile, credit spreads are widening, volatility is moving higher, and market confidence in the 2022 bull market is fading.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/308def26f84135aad8cc2172f6fbdedb\" tg-width=\"768\" tg-height=\"464\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p>The \"collapse\" of consensus</p><p>Hartnett pointed out that investors will see an approaching recession next, and the economic recession has become a consensus: the market generally expects GDP/EPS (earnings per share) to decline further; U.S. GDP is expected to be 3.7% in 2022, EU 4.0%, 2022 U.S. stock market EPS is 8.3%, and Europe is 4.7%.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ca77d10a0ec4568266b6dd5b749b3d6a\" tg-width=\"1020\" tg-height=\"1199\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p>Meanwhile, the U.S. economy is effectively splitting in two, with U.S. retail sales still above COVID-19 pandemic's top 24%, and even though the savings rate has reached 2019 levels, the<b>The real income of residents is declining.</b></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d0d023a53f944acc7950a4631e9f133d\" tg-width=\"866\" tg-height=\"335\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p>With inflation soaring, Bank of America predicts that if real wage growth in the United States remains negative ahead of the summer U.S. recession, it's safe to assume that a recession is now brewing. The non-farm payrolls data in February showed that hourly wages unexpectedly flattened, and wage growth may not continue to grow at a rapid rate.</p><p>However, the stock market may not necessarily plummet.<b>Any news of a de-escalation in the Russia-Ukraine conflict will lead to a sharp rally in risk assets</b>, Hartnett said:</p><p>\"The sell-off is going to be chaotic. The Fed and ECB are now desperately stuck between capital market deflation and major market inflation.\"</body></html></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> source：<a href=\"https://xnews.jin10.com/details/90915\">金十数据</a></p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/082208e3c37780dd55878056410ffa43","relate_stocks":{},"source_url":"https://xnews.jin10.com/details/90915","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1169491857","content_text":"美联储和欧洲央行现在正绝望地陷入资本市场通货紧缩和主要市场通货膨胀之间。俄乌局势及相关制裁持续升级，市场对经济滞涨的担忧也在不断加剧。美国银行首席投资策略师Michael Hartnett警告称，尽管美联储仍在打肿脸充胖子，假装将加息“六七次”，但随着油价飙升以及金融市场“流血”事故频繁发生，全球经济衰退的威胁正在逼近。考虑到这一点，这位美国银行策略师指出，现在为美联储或欧洲央行的政策转向定价还为时过早，“当标普500指数<3800-4000点，IG CDX >100个基点时，QE5就会到来”。Hartnett建议，在美联储还没有下调利率的情况下，投资者应该采取最大的防御措施。Hartnett在报告中总结道：“俄罗斯-乌克兰冲突意味着更大的通胀冲击、更小的利率冲击、更大的衰退冲击，而美联储和欧洲央行发现自己陷入了两难境地。”毫无疑问，战争意味着通货膨胀。今年，市场见证了自1915年以来最强劲的大宗商品价格指数。煤炭和铝的价格创下历史新高、石油和小麦价格飙升至2008年以来最高水平。战争会带来经济滞涨。1973年石油危机爆发时，只有大宗商品表现优于通胀。华尔街遭受重挫，标普指数跌入了-40%的谷底，科技股、消费股、银行股、小盘股暴跌，滞涨严重拖累了美国经济。当时，美联储最初仍选择继续收紧政策，但油价在1974年并未发生逆转，依旧保持结构性高位。最终，经济衰退还是在美联储将联邦基金利率从14%下调至3%之后才结束了。抛售潮汹涌而来市场似乎也开始嗅出即将到来的滞胀，这从欧洲股市创纪录的资金流出以及多年来最大的能源和材料资金流入就可以看出。数据显示，截至3月2日当周，高达463亿美元的资金流向了现金，为9周以来的最大流入量，同时有19亿美元流入黄金；50亿美元从股票中撤出，为10周内的第一次出现资金流出，其中欧洲股市遭遇了有史以来最大的资金外流（6亿美元）；106亿美元从债市撤出，其中16亿美元从新兴市场债券流出，去年3月21日以来最大流出量。抵押支持债券的资金流出量创去年3月20日以来最多。Hartnett警告，这只是一波早期的抛售潮，更多的抛售即将到来。美国银行的超高净值私人客户仍坚持逢低买入。市场仍充斥这样的声音：“美联储将变得鸽派”，“流动性依旧充足”、“股票超卖”、“可交易反弹”、“购买大型科技股”、“美国没有衰退”等等。尽管投资者认识到外部冲击，但他们并不认为会减少收益。只有当流动性转变时，流动性不足才会迫使投资者出售他们持有的资产。Hartnett认为，这将在几周后发生，届时美联储加息落地，紧接着就是开始缩表。与乐观的客户不同，美银策略师认为，随着投资者将提前进行清盘，地缘政策带来的动荡将再一次席卷金融、外汇储备。与此同时，信贷利差正在扩大，波动性正在走高，市场对2022年牛市的信心正在消失。共识的“崩溃”Hartnett指出，投资者接下来将看到不断逼近的衰退，经济衰退已成为共识：市场普遍预计GDP/EPS（每股盈利）将进一步下行；2022年美国GDP预计为3.7%，欧盟为4.0%，2022美国股市EPS为8.3%，欧洲为4.7%。与此同时，美国经济实际上正在一分为二，美国零售额仍高于新冠疫情前24%的水平，尽管储蓄率已达到2019年的水平，但居民的实际收入正在下滑。随着通货膨胀飙升，美银预测，如果美国实际工资增长在夏季美国经济衰退之前仍然为负，那么可以肯定，经济衰退现在正在酝酿之中。2月的非农就业数据显示，时薪出人意料地趋于平缓，工资增长恐怕不能持续以迅猛的速度增长。不过，股市也不一定会直线下跌，任何有关俄罗斯-乌克兰冲突缓和的消息都将导致风险资产出现大幅反弹，Hartnett表示：“抛售将是混乱的。美联储和欧洲央行现在正绝望地陷入资本市场通货紧缩和主要市场通货膨胀之间。”","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":688,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9081507834,"gmtCreate":1650249725549,"gmtModify":1676534679042,"author":{"id":"3581647091503821","authorId":"3581647091503821","name":"谷岳HZ","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3581647091503821","authorIdStr":"3581647091503821"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"nice","listText":"nice","text":"nice","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9081507834","repostId":"1194417947","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1194417947","kind":"news","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"为用户提供金融资讯、行情、数据，旨在帮助投资者理解世界，做投资决策。","home_visible":1,"media_name":"老虎资讯综合","id":"102","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba"},"pubTimestamp":1650237316,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1194417947?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2022-04-18 07:15","market":"sh","language":"zh","title":"This week's preview | Tesla and Netflix's financial reports are coming! Powell to Speak","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1194417947","media":"老虎资讯综合","summary":"本周（4.18-4.23）重磅财经事件：经济数据方面：中国GDP年率、美国至4月15日当周EIA原油库存及美国至4月16日当周初请失业金人数等重磅数据将集中来袭。4月20日上午（周三）中国央行将公布4","content":"<p><html><head></head><body><b>Major financial events this week (4.18-4.23):</b></p><p><b>Economic data:</b>Heavy data such as China's annual GDP rate, EIA crude oil inventories in the United States for the week to April 15th, and the number of initial jobless claims in the United States for the week to April 16th will be concentrated. On the morning of April 20th (Wednesday), the People's Bank of China will announce the 1-year loan market quoted interest rate and the 5-year loan market quoted interest rate in April.<b>Financial report:</b>The earnings season continues to be hot,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BAC\">Bank of America</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BK\">Bank of New York Mellon</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/HAL\">Halliburton</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/JNJ\">Johnson Johnson</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/PG\">Procter Gamble</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NFLX\">Netflix</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/ASML\">ASML</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TSLA\">Tesla</a>AT&T,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AAL\">American Airlines</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/SNAP\">Snap Inc</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/ISRG\">Intuitive Surgery Inc</a>Verizon,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AXP\">American Express</a>Wait to announce results one after another.<b>Financial events:</b>The State Council Office will hold a press conference on the operation of the national economy; In addition, Federal Reserve Chairman Powell, Eagle King Bullard, 2023 FOMC voting committee Chicago Fed President Evans, and 2024 FOMC voting committee San Francisco Fed President Daly will deliver speeches.<b>For new shares:</b>Zhihu, the nation's largest online Q&A community, will go public on Friday.<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9a2d5fdc01fc731126224cf5658d22cc\" tg-width=\"1800\" tg-height=\"1430\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/><b>Keywords for Monday, April 18: Hong Kong stocks are closed; China's annual GDP rate; The State Council Office held a press conference on the operation of the national economy; Bank of America, BNY Mellon Earnings</b><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1680a6399764555318529b3352aeb30b\" tg-width=\"1370\" tg-height=\"697\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2a00f9517560ed59eacc83999071f9ca\" tg-width=\"1232\" tg-height=\"565\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><b>On Monday,</b>Hong Kong stocks were closed due to the Easter holiday, and A-share Connect (northbound) and Hong Kong Stock Connect (southbound) were also closed on the same day.</p><p><b>Economic data</b>, China's annual GDP rate (%), and the US NAHB real estate market index will be announced.</p><p><b>Event aspect</b>, the State Council Information Office will hold a press conference on the operation of the national economy.</p><p><b>Financial reporting</b>，<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BAC\">Bank of America</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BK\">Bank of New York Mellon</a>Results will be announced one after another.</p><p><b>Tuesday, April 19 KEYWORDS: Total U.S. housing starts annualized; Halliburton, Johnson & Johnson, Lockheed Martin, Shandong Gold Earnings</b><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/73d5d5a12928803054746a6c5e479c2b\" tg-width=\"1362\" tg-height=\"301\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/433929ecb5137c2fd6d5bf4eb4cf8901\" tg-width=\"1400\" tg-height=\"268\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/><b>Tuesday</b>，<b>Economic data</b>, data such as the total number of building permits in the United States and the annualized total number of new housing starts in the United States will be hit in the future.</p><p><b>Financial reporting</b>，<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/HAL.US\">Halliburton</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/JNJ\">Johnson Johnson</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/LMT\">Lockheed Martin</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/01787\">Shandong Gold</a>Wait for the financial report to hit.</p><p><b>Keywords for Wednesday, April 20: U.S. API crude oil inventories for the week; Procter & Gamble, Netflix, ASML, China Telecom earnings reports</b><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a487abdec82f2bcb4c1016dde27edaab\" tg-width=\"938\" tg-height=\"755\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d80349cae5f26d4d846bc65b0d8ab7a8\" tg-width=\"1000\" tg-height=\"333\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/><b>Wednesday</b>，<b>Economic data</b>, the U.S. API crude oil inventory for the week and the U.S. EIA strategic petroleum reserve inventory for the week will be announced.</p><p><b>In terms of events,</b>2023 FOMC voting committee and Chicago Fed President Evans delivered a speech at the Economic Club of New York; 2024 FOMC voting committee member and San Francisco Fed President Daly delivered a speech on the economic outlook.</p><p>As for the central bank, at 9:15 a.m. on Wednesday (April 20th), the People's Bank of China will announce the 1-year loan market quoted interest rate and the 5-year loan market quoted interest rate in April. On April 15, the day of the RRR cut operation, the central bank shrank and continued to make MLF, and the interest rate was the same as the previous operation. At present, the focus of the market has turned to the April LPR quotation.</p><p><b>Financial reporting</b>，<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/PG\">Procter Gamble</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NFLX\">Netflix</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/ASML\">ASML</a>, $ASM<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/601099\">Pacific Ocean</a>(00522)$、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/00728\">China Telecom</a>Wait for financial reports to be announced.</p><p><b>Keywords for Thursday, April 21: Federal Reserve economic conditions Beige Book, U.S. EIA natural gas inventories for the week; Tesla, AT&T, Blackstone, American Airlines, China Unicom earnings reports; Zhihu-W winning result</b><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ed5e76bae42d5c1b012643b2e46be073\" tg-width=\"1366\" tg-height=\"464\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/33da4f5f0a2047912d74ccd4a2b82a67\" tg-width=\"1400\" tg-height=\"246\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/><b>Thursday</b>，<b>Economic data</b>, the U.S. Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index, the Conference Board Leading Indicator Monthly Rate, and the U.S. EIA natural gas inventory for the week will be released.</p><p><b>Event aspect</b>, the Federal Reserve will release Beige Book on economic conditions; NYMEX New York crude oil May futures were affected by the change of positions and months. The last transaction on the floor was completed at 2:30 on April 21, and the last transaction on the electronic trading was completed at 5:00 in the morning. Please pay attention to the announcement of expiration and month change in the trading place to control risks. In addition, the expiration time of U.S. oil contracts on some trading platforms is usually one day earlier than the official NYMEX, so please pay more attention.</p><p><b>In terms of financial reports,</b><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TSLA\">Tesla</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/T\">AT&T</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BX\">Blackstone</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AAL\">American Airlines</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/00762\">China Unicom</a>Heavy financial reports will be announced on the same day.</p><p><b>In terms of new shares,</b>The nation's largest online Q&A community<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/02390\">Zhihu-W</a>The winning results will be announced.</p><p><b>Friday, April 22KEYWORDS: Snap, American Express, Intuitive Surgery earnings; United States April<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MRKT\">Markit</a>Manufacturing PMI preliminary value, U.S. Markit services PMI preliminary value in April</b><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5156aa725f088278bc17d3a1f6060cdd\" tg-width=\"937\" tg-height=\"604\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/92c69270e38b326e0da91b2f07d92566\" tg-width=\"986\" tg-height=\"223\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><b>As for economic data,</b>The initial value of the U.S. Markit manufacturing PMI in April and the initial value of the U.S. Markit services PMI in April will be announced on the same day.</p><p><b>Event aspect</b>, Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell and European Central Bank President Christine Lagarde participated in a panel discussion on the global economy hosted by the IMF.</p><p><b>Financial reporting</b>，<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/SNAP\">Snap Inc</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/ISRG\">Intuitive Surgery Inc</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/VZ\">Verizon</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AXP\">American Express</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/SLB\">Schlumberger</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/02333\">Great Wall Motors</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/03968\">China Merchants Bank</a>Waiting for the blockbuster financial reports to hit.</p><p><b>In terms of new shares,</b><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/02390\">Zhihu-W</a>Available Friday.</p><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/02390\">Zhihu-W</a>It is planned to issue 26 million shares at an issue price of no more than HK $51.8 per share. The final offer price has been determined at HK $32.06 per share, with 100 shares per lot. It is expected to be listed on April 22.<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/ZH\">Zhihu</a>Is a leading online content community, listed on the New York Stock Exchange in March 2021. According to CIC Consulting, Zhihu is one of the top five comprehensive online content communities in China in terms of average mobile monthly active users and revenue in 2019, 2020 and 2021, and the largest online Q&A community in the country.</body></html></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>This week's preview | Tesla and Netflix's financial reports are coming! Powell to Speak</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nThis week's preview | Tesla and Netflix's financial reports are coming! Powell to Speak\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/102\">\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">老虎资讯综合 </p>\n<p class=\"h-time smaller\">2022-04-18 07:15</p>\n</div>\n</a>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><html><head></head><body><b>Major financial events this week (4.18-4.23):</b></p><p><b>Economic data:</b>Heavy data such as China's annual GDP rate, EIA crude oil inventories in the United States for the week to April 15th, and the number of initial jobless claims in the United States for the week to April 16th will be concentrated. On the morning of April 20th (Wednesday), the People's Bank of China will announce the 1-year loan market quoted interest rate and the 5-year loan market quoted interest rate in April.<b>Financial report:</b>The earnings season continues to be hot,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BAC\">Bank of America</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BK\">Bank of New York Mellon</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/HAL\">Halliburton</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/JNJ\">Johnson Johnson</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/PG\">Procter Gamble</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NFLX\">Netflix</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/ASML\">ASML</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TSLA\">Tesla</a>AT&T,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AAL\">American Airlines</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/SNAP\">Snap Inc</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/ISRG\">Intuitive Surgery Inc</a>Verizon,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AXP\">American Express</a>Wait to announce results one after another.<b>Financial events:</b>The State Council Office will hold a press conference on the operation of the national economy; In addition, Federal Reserve Chairman Powell, Eagle King Bullard, 2023 FOMC voting committee Chicago Fed President Evans, and 2024 FOMC voting committee San Francisco Fed President Daly will deliver speeches.<b>For new shares:</b>Zhihu, the nation's largest online Q&A community, will go public on Friday.<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9a2d5fdc01fc731126224cf5658d22cc\" tg-width=\"1800\" tg-height=\"1430\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/><b>Keywords for Monday, April 18: Hong Kong stocks are closed; China's annual GDP rate; The State Council Office held a press conference on the operation of the national economy; Bank of America, BNY Mellon Earnings</b><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1680a6399764555318529b3352aeb30b\" tg-width=\"1370\" tg-height=\"697\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2a00f9517560ed59eacc83999071f9ca\" tg-width=\"1232\" tg-height=\"565\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><b>On Monday,</b>Hong Kong stocks were closed due to the Easter holiday, and A-share Connect (northbound) and Hong Kong Stock Connect (southbound) were also closed on the same day.</p><p><b>Economic data</b>, China's annual GDP rate (%), and the US NAHB real estate market index will be announced.</p><p><b>Event aspect</b>, the State Council Information Office will hold a press conference on the operation of the national economy.</p><p><b>Financial reporting</b>，<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BAC\">Bank of America</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BK\">Bank of New York Mellon</a>Results will be announced one after another.</p><p><b>Tuesday, April 19 KEYWORDS: Total U.S. housing starts annualized; Halliburton, Johnson & Johnson, Lockheed Martin, Shandong Gold Earnings</b><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/73d5d5a12928803054746a6c5e479c2b\" tg-width=\"1362\" tg-height=\"301\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/433929ecb5137c2fd6d5bf4eb4cf8901\" tg-width=\"1400\" tg-height=\"268\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/><b>Tuesday</b>，<b>Economic data</b>, data such as the total number of building permits in the United States and the annualized total number of new housing starts in the United States will be hit in the future.</p><p><b>Financial reporting</b>，<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/HAL.US\">Halliburton</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/JNJ\">Johnson Johnson</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/LMT\">Lockheed Martin</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/01787\">Shandong Gold</a>Wait for the financial report to hit.</p><p><b>Keywords for Wednesday, April 20: U.S. API crude oil inventories for the week; Procter & Gamble, Netflix, ASML, China Telecom earnings reports</b><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a487abdec82f2bcb4c1016dde27edaab\" tg-width=\"938\" tg-height=\"755\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d80349cae5f26d4d846bc65b0d8ab7a8\" tg-width=\"1000\" tg-height=\"333\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/><b>Wednesday</b>，<b>Economic data</b>, the U.S. API crude oil inventory for the week and the U.S. EIA strategic petroleum reserve inventory for the week will be announced.</p><p><b>In terms of events,</b>2023 FOMC voting committee and Chicago Fed President Evans delivered a speech at the Economic Club of New York; 2024 FOMC voting committee member and San Francisco Fed President Daly delivered a speech on the economic outlook.</p><p>As for the central bank, at 9:15 a.m. on Wednesday (April 20th), the People's Bank of China will announce the 1-year loan market quoted interest rate and the 5-year loan market quoted interest rate in April. On April 15, the day of the RRR cut operation, the central bank shrank and continued to make MLF, and the interest rate was the same as the previous operation. At present, the focus of the market has turned to the April LPR quotation.</p><p><b>Financial reporting</b>，<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/PG\">Procter Gamble</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NFLX\">Netflix</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/ASML\">ASML</a>, $ASM<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/601099\">Pacific Ocean</a>(00522)$、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/00728\">China Telecom</a>Wait for financial reports to be announced.</p><p><b>Keywords for Thursday, April 21: Federal Reserve economic conditions Beige Book, U.S. EIA natural gas inventories for the week; Tesla, AT&T, Blackstone, American Airlines, China Unicom earnings reports; Zhihu-W winning result</b><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ed5e76bae42d5c1b012643b2e46be073\" tg-width=\"1366\" tg-height=\"464\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/33da4f5f0a2047912d74ccd4a2b82a67\" tg-width=\"1400\" tg-height=\"246\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/><b>Thursday</b>，<b>Economic data</b>, the U.S. Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index, the Conference Board Leading Indicator Monthly Rate, and the U.S. EIA natural gas inventory for the week will be released.</p><p><b>Event aspect</b>, the Federal Reserve will release Beige Book on economic conditions; NYMEX New York crude oil May futures were affected by the change of positions and months. The last transaction on the floor was completed at 2:30 on April 21, and the last transaction on the electronic trading was completed at 5:00 in the morning. Please pay attention to the announcement of expiration and month change in the trading place to control risks. In addition, the expiration time of U.S. oil contracts on some trading platforms is usually one day earlier than the official NYMEX, so please pay more attention.</p><p><b>In terms of financial reports,</b><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TSLA\">Tesla</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/T\">AT&T</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BX\">Blackstone</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AAL\">American Airlines</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/00762\">China Unicom</a>Heavy financial reports will be announced on the same day.</p><p><b>In terms of new shares,</b>The nation's largest online Q&A community<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/02390\">Zhihu-W</a>The winning results will be announced.</p><p><b>Friday, April 22KEYWORDS: Snap, American Express, Intuitive Surgery earnings; United States April<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MRKT\">Markit</a>Manufacturing PMI preliminary value, U.S. Markit services PMI preliminary value in April</b><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5156aa725f088278bc17d3a1f6060cdd\" tg-width=\"937\" tg-height=\"604\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/92c69270e38b326e0da91b2f07d92566\" tg-width=\"986\" tg-height=\"223\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><b>As for economic data,</b>The initial value of the U.S. Markit manufacturing PMI in April and the initial value of the U.S. Markit services PMI in April will be announced on the same day.</p><p><b>Event aspect</b>, Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell and European Central Bank President Christine Lagarde participated in a panel discussion on the global economy hosted by the IMF.</p><p><b>Financial reporting</b>，<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/SNAP\">Snap Inc</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/ISRG\">Intuitive Surgery Inc</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/VZ\">Verizon</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AXP\">American Express</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/SLB\">Schlumberger</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/02333\">Great Wall Motors</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/03968\">China Merchants Bank</a>Waiting for the blockbuster financial reports to hit.</p><p><b>In terms of new shares,</b><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/02390\">Zhihu-W</a>Available Friday.</p><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/02390\">Zhihu-W</a>It is planned to issue 26 million shares at an issue price of no more than HK $51.8 per share. The final offer price has been determined at HK $32.06 per share, with 100 shares per lot. It is expected to be listed on April 22.<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/ZH\">Zhihu</a>Is a leading online content community, listed on the New York Stock Exchange in March 2021. According to CIC Consulting, Zhihu is one of the top five comprehensive online content communities in China in terms of average mobile monthly active users and revenue in 2019, 2020 and 2021, and the largest online Q&A community in the country.</body></html></p>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d256e82db1d71c864259845ce1d069bf","relate_stocks":{"BK4555":"新能源车","BK4533":"AQR资本管理(全球第二大对冲基金)","DJX":"1/100道琼斯","SPY":"标普500ETF","SDOW":"三倍做空道指30ETF-ProShares","TQQQ":"纳指三倍做多ETF","BK4534":"瑞士信贷持仓",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite","DOG":"道指ETF-ProShares做空","SDS":"两倍做空标普500 ETF-ProShares",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index","BK4574":"无人驾驶","TSLA":"特斯拉","BK4524":"宅经济概念","NFLX":"奈飞","UDOW":"三倍做多道指30ETF-ProShares",".DJI":"道琼斯","SPXU":"三倍做空标普500ETF-ProShares","SH":"做空标普500-Proshares","SSO":"2倍做多标普500ETF-ProShares"},"source_url":"","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1194417947","content_text":"本周（4.18-4.23）重磅财经事件：经济数据方面：中国GDP年率、美国至4月15日当周EIA原油库存及美国至4月16日当周初请失业金人数等重磅数据将集中来袭。4月20日上午（周三）中国央行将公布4月1年期贷款市场报价利率和5年期贷款市场报价利率。财报方面：财报季火热继续，美国银行、纽约梅隆银行、哈里伯顿、强生、宝洁、奈飞、阿斯麦、特斯拉、AT&T、美国航空、Snap Inc、直觉外科公司、Verizon、美国运通等相继公布业绩。财经事件方面：国新办将就国民经济运行情况举行发布会；此外，美联储主席鲍威尔、鹰王布拉德、2023年FOMC票委芝加哥联储主席埃文斯、2024年FOMC票委旧金山联储主席戴利将发表讲话。新股方面：全国最大的在线问答社区知乎将于周五上市。4月18日 周一关键词：港股休市；中国GDP年率；国新办国民经济运行情况发布会；美国银行、纽约梅隆银行财报周一，港股因复活节假期休市，A股通（北向）、港股通（南向）当日亦均休市。经济数据方面，中国GDP年率(%)、美国NAHB房产市场指数将公布。事件方面，国新办将就国民经济运行情况举行发布会。财报方面，美国银行、纽约梅隆银行陆续将公布业绩。4月19日 周二关键词：美国新屋开工总数年化；哈里伯顿、强生、洛克希德马丁、山东黄金财报周二，经济数据方面，美国营建许可总数、美国新屋开工总数年化等数据将来袭。财报方面，哈里伯顿、强生、洛克希德马丁、山东黄金等财报集中来袭。4月20日 周三关键词：美国当周API原油库存；宝洁、奈飞、阿斯麦、中国电信财报周三，经济数据方面，美国当周API原油库存、美国当周EIA战略石油储备库存等将公布。事件方面，2023年FOMC票委、芝加哥联储主席埃文斯在纽约经济俱乐部发表讲话；2024年FOMC票委、旧金山联储主席戴利就经济前景发表讲话。央行方面，周三（4月20日）上午9:15，中国央行将公布4月1年期贷款市场报价利率和5年期贷款市场报价利率。4月15日，即降准操作当日，央行缩量续作MLF，利率与前期操作持平，目前市场关注焦点转向4月LPR报价。财报方面，宝洁、奈飞、阿斯麦、$ASM太平洋(00522)$、中国电信等将公布财报。4月21日 周四关键词：美联储经济状况褐皮书、美国当周EIA天然气库存；特斯拉、AT&T、黑石、美国航空、中国联通财报；知乎-W中签结果周四，经济数据方面，美国费城联储制造业指数、美国谘商会领先指标月率、美国当周EIA天然气库存将公布。事件方面，美联储将公布经济状况褐皮书；NYMEX纽约原油5月期货受移仓换月影响，4月21日2:30完成场内最后交易，凌晨5:00完成电子盘最后交易，请留意交易场所到期换月公告控制风险。此外，部分交易平台美油合约到期时间通常较NYMEX官方提前一天，请多加留意。财报方面，特斯拉、AT&T、黑石、美国航空、中国联通等重磅财报将于当日集中公布。新股方面，全国最大的在线问答社区知乎-W将公布中签结果。4月22日 周五关键词：Snap、美国运通、直觉外科财报；美国4月Markit制造业PMI初值、美国4月Markit服务业PMI初值经济数据方面，美国4月Markit制造业PMI初值、美国4月Markit服务业PMI初值将于当日公布。事件方面，美联储主席鲍威尔和欧洲央行行长拉加德参与IMF举办的关于全球经济的小组讨论。财报方面，Snap Inc、直觉外科公司、Verizon、美国运通、斯伦贝谢、长城汽车、招商银行等重磅财报集中来袭。新股方面，知乎-W周五上市。知乎-W拟发行2600万股股份，每股发行价不超过51.8港元，最终发售价已确定为每股32.06港元，每手100股，预期将于4月22日上市。知乎是一个领先的在线内容社区，于2021年3月在纽交所上市。根据灼识咨询的资料，以2019年、2020年及2021年的平均移动端月活跃用户和收入计，知乎是中国前五大的综合在线内容社区之一，是全国最大的在线问答社区。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{".DJI":0.9,"TQQQ":0.9,"TSLA":0.9,"DJX":0.9,"SPXU":0.9,"SPY":0.9,"UDOW":0.9,"SSO":0.9,"SH":0.9,".SPX":0.9,".IXIC":0.9,"NFLX":0.9,"SDOW":0.9,"DOG":0.9,"SDS":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":503,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9080399810,"gmtCreate":1649841715905,"gmtModify":1676534587859,"author":{"id":"3581647091503821","authorId":"3581647091503821","name":"谷岳HZ","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3581647091503821","authorIdStr":"3581647091503821"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/RELI\">$Reliance Global Group, Inc.(RELI)$</a>nice","listText":"<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/RELI\">$Reliance Global Group, Inc.(RELI)$</a>nice","text":"$Reliance Global Group, Inc.(RELI)$nice","images":[{"img":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/ccd9975ad476b402140cfe1a673156b1","width":"750","height":"1372"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9080399810","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":522,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9080390800,"gmtCreate":1649841592246,"gmtModify":1676534587843,"author":{"id":"3581647091503821","authorId":"3581647091503821","name":"谷岳HZ","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3581647091503821","authorIdStr":"3581647091503821"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"ni c","listText":"ni c","text":"ni c","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9080390800","repostId":"2227695031","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"2227695031","kind":"highlight","pubTimestamp":1649831125,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/2227695031?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2022-04-13 14:25","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"What Does U.S. Inflation 'Peak' Mean for Markets? Could be worse","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2227695031","media":"华尔街见闻","summary":"万众瞩目的美国3月CPI数据如期公布，8.5%的同比增速既在情理之中，也在意料之外。情理之中的是，在CPI同比增速连续第6个月超过6%之后，有市场声音认为，美国通胀已经触顶。华尔街日报对此指出，近期汽","content":"<p><html><head></head><body>The much-anticipated U.S. CPI data for March was released as scheduled, and the year-on-year growth rate of 8.5% was both reasonable and unexpected.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f302216ecd7571b4ad526fd1215c3ee7\" tg-width=\"1004\" tg-height=\"642\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><b>It is reasonable that after the year-on-year growth rate of CPI exceeded 6% for the sixth consecutive month, some market voices believe that U.S. inflation has peaked.</b></p><p>The Wall Street Journal pointed out that gasoline prices have slowed down recently, and used car prices, which continue to boost inflation, have finally begun to stabilize. The used car and truck price index fell 3.8% in March, the biggest drop since 1969 and the second consecutive month of decline.</p><p>At the same time, many supply shortages and logistics and transportation problems are showing signs of improvement, and these appear to be cooling high inflation.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/02d6498eb348b2c9b17af5af1574cc05\" tg-width=\"1270\" tg-height=\"616\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>And the core CPI was 0.3% month-on-month, not only lower than the expected 0.5%, but also refreshed the lowest level since September 2022.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4bb3afcf8c31d0f63694f69987b5c368\" tg-width=\"1271\" tg-height=\"611\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>At the same time, OER (house rental cost) and main residential rents both rose by 0.43% month-on-month in March, a slight decrease from February.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/464f5d7b400edf9a78de44f31c2596b3\" tg-width=\"737\" tg-height=\"527\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><b>Unexpectedly, however, some analysts believe that even if inflation peaks, it does not mean that U.S. bond yields have peaked.</b></p><p>CICC Fixed Income believes that the so-called \"peaking\" only emphasizes that the next month-on-month increase may be lower than the same period last year, but even so, the month-on-month increase in inflation and its absolute level are still at historically high levels.</p><p>Therefore, for the Federal Reserve, it still needs to further suppress inflation, so the U.S. bond yields affected by it may be difficult to truly \"calm down\".</p><p>In addition, U.S. bond yields have reflected many rate hike and shrinking balance sheet expectations, but the current situation is that the Federal Reserve has only launched a rate hike once, and the \"wolf-like\" quantitative tightening policy has not really been implemented, but usually U.S. bond yields will peak in the mid-to-late rate hike.</p><p>Therefore, for the market, even if inflation \"peaks\", the Federal Reserve will not stop, and the trend of U.S. bond yields behind it may continue to rise, especially the increase in the short and medium term may be higher than that in the long term. The 2-year U.S. bond It is not completely unimaginable that the yield rate is close to 3% (currently 2.4%), and the market impact brought about by the flattening of the yield curve cannot be underestimated.</p><p><b>What's more, the data shows that it is too early to conclude that inflation has \"peaked\" in March.</b></p><p>Food and energy prices rose significantly. The former increased by 1% month-on-month for the second consecutive month, while the latter rose by 11%, the second highest monthly growth in 65 years.</p><p>Moreover, there have been huge growth in household goods and clothing, which shows that the supply chain is still in a state of chaos.<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/DB\">Deutsche Bank</a>The warning is that if the supply chain deteriorates further, it may eventually affect car prices again.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/87490d0b7dc1a9d8ad093156d10b47d9\" tg-width=\"1280\" tg-height=\"469\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>In addition, considering that the current conflict between Russia and Ukraine has not yet ended, the impact of geopolitical conflicts on energy and food prices still exists, and consumer demand in the United States has not fallen. Therefore, overall inflation in the United States may peak in the second quarter, but not necessarily in March.</p><p></body></html></p>","source":"wallstreetcn_api","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>What Does U.S. Inflation 'Peak' Mean for Markets? Could be worse</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nWhat Does U.S. Inflation 'Peak' Mean for Markets? Could be worse\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">华尔街见闻</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2022-04-13 14:25</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><html><head></head><body>The much-anticipated U.S. CPI data for March was released as scheduled, and the year-on-year growth rate of 8.5% was both reasonable and unexpected.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f302216ecd7571b4ad526fd1215c3ee7\" tg-width=\"1004\" tg-height=\"642\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><b>It is reasonable that after the year-on-year growth rate of CPI exceeded 6% for the sixth consecutive month, some market voices believe that U.S. inflation has peaked.</b></p><p>The Wall Street Journal pointed out that gasoline prices have slowed down recently, and used car prices, which continue to boost inflation, have finally begun to stabilize. The used car and truck price index fell 3.8% in March, the biggest drop since 1969 and the second consecutive month of decline.</p><p>At the same time, many supply shortages and logistics and transportation problems are showing signs of improvement, and these appear to be cooling high inflation.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/02d6498eb348b2c9b17af5af1574cc05\" tg-width=\"1270\" tg-height=\"616\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>And the core CPI was 0.3% month-on-month, not only lower than the expected 0.5%, but also refreshed the lowest level since September 2022.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4bb3afcf8c31d0f63694f69987b5c368\" tg-width=\"1271\" tg-height=\"611\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>At the same time, OER (house rental cost) and main residential rents both rose by 0.43% month-on-month in March, a slight decrease from February.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/464f5d7b400edf9a78de44f31c2596b3\" tg-width=\"737\" tg-height=\"527\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><b>Unexpectedly, however, some analysts believe that even if inflation peaks, it does not mean that U.S. bond yields have peaked.</b></p><p>CICC Fixed Income believes that the so-called \"peaking\" only emphasizes that the next month-on-month increase may be lower than the same period last year, but even so, the month-on-month increase in inflation and its absolute level are still at historically high levels.</p><p>Therefore, for the Federal Reserve, it still needs to further suppress inflation, so the U.S. bond yields affected by it may be difficult to truly \"calm down\".</p><p>In addition, U.S. bond yields have reflected many rate hike and shrinking balance sheet expectations, but the current situation is that the Federal Reserve has only launched a rate hike once, and the \"wolf-like\" quantitative tightening policy has not really been implemented, but usually U.S. bond yields will peak in the mid-to-late rate hike.</p><p>Therefore, for the market, even if inflation \"peaks\", the Federal Reserve will not stop, and the trend of U.S. bond yields behind it may continue to rise, especially the increase in the short and medium term may be higher than that in the long term. The 2-year U.S. bond It is not completely unimaginable that the yield rate is close to 3% (currently 2.4%), and the market impact brought about by the flattening of the yield curve cannot be underestimated.</p><p><b>What's more, the data shows that it is too early to conclude that inflation has \"peaked\" in March.</b></p><p>Food and energy prices rose significantly. The former increased by 1% month-on-month for the second consecutive month, while the latter rose by 11%, the second highest monthly growth in 65 years.</p><p>Moreover, there have been huge growth in household goods and clothing, which shows that the supply chain is still in a state of chaos.<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/DB\">Deutsche Bank</a>The warning is that if the supply chain deteriorates further, it may eventually affect car prices again.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/87490d0b7dc1a9d8ad093156d10b47d9\" tg-width=\"1280\" tg-height=\"469\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>In addition, considering that the current conflict between Russia and Ukraine has not yet ended, the impact of geopolitical conflicts on energy and food prices still exists, and consumer demand in the United States has not fallen. Therefore, overall inflation in the United States may peak in the second quarter, but not necessarily in March.</p><p></body></html></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> source：<a href=\"https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3656792\">华尔街见闻</a></p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1c7221d934f1008e531bdf79c8cfe0ee","relate_stocks":{"161125":"标普500","513500":"标普500ETF","BK4550":"红杉资本持仓","QLD":"2倍做多纳斯达克100指数ETF-ProShares","OEX":"标普100","DXD":"两倍做空道琼30指数ETF-ProShares","SPY":"标普500ETF","SDOW":"三倍做空道指30ETF-ProShares","OEF":"标普100指数ETF-iShares","DDM":"2倍做多道指ETF-ProShares","TQQQ":"纳指三倍做多ETF",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index","DOG":"道指ETF-ProShares做空","QID":"两倍做空纳斯达克指数ETF-ProShares","BK4581":"高盛持仓","SDS":"两倍做空标普500 ETF-ProShares",".DJI":"道琼斯","BK4534":"瑞士信贷持仓",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite","SH":"做空标普500-Proshares","SQQQ":"纳指三倍做空ETF","PSQ":"做空纳斯达克100指数ETF-ProShares","QQQ":"纳指100ETF","UDOW":"三倍做多道指30ETF-ProShares","DJX":"1/100道琼斯","UPRO":"三倍做多标普500ETF-ProShares","BK4504":"桥水持仓","SPXU":"三倍做空标普500ETF-ProShares","IVV":"标普500ETF-iShares","BK4559":"巴菲特持仓","SSO":"2倍做多标普500ETF-ProShares"},"source_url":"https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3656792","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2227695031","content_text":"万众瞩目的美国3月CPI数据如期公布，8.5%的同比增速既在情理之中，也在意料之外。情理之中的是，在CPI同比增速连续第6个月超过6%之后，有市场声音认为，美国通胀已经触顶。华尔街日报对此指出，近期汽油价格有所放缓，并且持续助推通胀上行的二手车价格也终于开始平稳。二手车和卡车价格指数在3月下跌3.8%，是自1969年以来的最大跌幅，为连续第二个月下跌。与此同时，许多供应短缺和物流运输问题都显露出好转迹象，而这些似乎都在冷却高企的通胀水平。并且核心CPI环比为0.3%，不仅低于预期的0.5%，而且刷新2022年9月以来的最低水平。同时，3月OER（房屋出租成本）和主要住宅租金均环比上涨0.43%，较2月略有下降。然而意料之外的是，有分析人士认为，就算通胀触顶，也并不代表美债收益率已经触顶。中金固收认为，所谓“触顶”只是强调接下来的环比涨幅可能会低于去年同期，但即使这样，通胀的环比涨幅和本身的绝对水平仍然处于历史高位。所以对于美联储而言，接下来依旧需要进一步压制通胀，那么受其影响的美债收益率可能难以真正“平静”。再加上美债收益率已经反映出很多加息和缩表预期，但现在的情况是，美联储只启动了一次加息，而且“狼性”的量化紧缩政策也未真正落地，但通常美债收益率都是在加息中后期才会触顶。所以对于市场而言，即使通胀“触顶”，美联储也不会停手，背后的美债收益率走势或将继续上冲，尤其是中短端的升幅可能高于长端，2年期美债收益率接近3%并非完全不可想象（目前是2.4%），届时收益率曲线趋平带来的市场冲击不容小觑。更何况，数据表明现在断定通胀已经在3月“触顶”还为时尚早。食品和能源价格显著上涨，前者连续第二个月环比增长1%，后者上涨11%更是创下65年以来的第二高的月度增长。并且，家居用品和服装都出现了巨大的增长，这就表明供应链仍然处于混乱状态。德意志银行对此警告称，如果供应链进一步恶化最终可能将再次影响汽车价格。再加上，考虑到目前俄乌冲突尚未结束，地缘政治冲突对能源和食品价格的影响仍在存在，美国的消费需求也未回落。所以，美国的整体通胀可能会在二季度触顶，但不一定是在3月。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"161125":0.6,"513500":0.6,"UDOW":0.6,"QQQ":0.6,"DDM":0.6,"UPRO":0.6,"OEX":0.6,"SSO":0.6,"MNQmain":0.6,"SQQQ":0.6,".SPX":0.6,"SDOW":0.6,"DOG":0.6,"OEF":0.6,"SPY":0.9,".IXIC":0.9,"SPXU":0.6,"SH":0.6,"IVV":0.6,"DJX":0.6,"QLD":0.6,".DJI":0.9,"QID":0.6,"SDS":0.6,"ESmain":0.6,"TQQQ":0.6,"PSQ":0.6,"DXD":0.6,"NQmain":0.6}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":431,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9017078211,"gmtCreate":1649729887255,"gmtModify":1676534559528,"author":{"id":"3581647091503821","authorId":"3581647091503821","name":"谷岳HZ","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3581647091503821","authorIdStr":"3581647091503821"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"nice","listText":"nice","text":"nice","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9017078211","repostId":"1159111222","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":436,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9014490354,"gmtCreate":1649690500228,"gmtModify":1676534552026,"author":{"id":"3581647091503821","authorId":"3581647091503821","name":"谷岳HZ","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3581647091503821","authorIdStr":"3581647091503821"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/ACB\">$奥罗拉大麻公司(ACB)$</a>ba d","listText":"<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/ACB\">$奥罗拉大麻公司(ACB)$</a>ba d","text":"$奥罗拉大麻公司(ACB)$ba d","images":[{"img":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/92db3b9d85411138b2b5b58d787bc6ac","width":"750","height":"1372"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9014490354","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":543,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9014490073,"gmtCreate":1649690483332,"gmtModify":1676534552020,"author":{"id":"3581647091503821","authorId":"3581647091503821","name":"谷岳HZ","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3581647091503821","authorIdStr":"3581647091503821"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/ACB\">$奥罗拉大麻公司(ACB)$</a>ba d","listText":"<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/ACB\">$奥罗拉大麻公司(ACB)$</a>ba d","text":"$奥罗拉大麻公司(ACB)$ba d","images":[{"img":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/90146b1c355fac16b06cdb2c5a5b6ead","width":"640","height":"800"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9014490073","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":948,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9014056329,"gmtCreate":1649569573681,"gmtModify":1676534532405,"author":{"id":"3581647091503821","authorId":"3581647091503821","name":"谷岳HZ","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3581647091503821","authorIdStr":"3581647091503821"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"ba d","listText":"ba d","text":"ba d","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9014056329","repostId":"2225527069","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"2225527069","kind":"highlight","pubTimestamp":1649552490,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/2225527069?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2022-04-10 09:01","market":"hk","language":"zh","title":"Crazy Lithium: 10x a Year, Who's Hyping?","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2225527069","media":"华尔街见闻","summary":"从默默无闻到撼动行业。仅仅一年多时间，从5万/吨涨到50万/吨，锂的疯狂得益于新能源汽车市场的爆发，过去不受待见的“工业味精”锂，华丽变身为新时代的“白色石油”，身价暴涨，一吨难求！仅仅一年多时间，从","content":"<p><html><head></head><body><b>From obscurity to shaking up the industry.</b><b>In just over a year, it has risen from 50,000/ton to 500,000/ton. The madness of lithium has benefited from the outbreak of the new energy vehicle market. The \"industrial monosodium glutamate\" lithium, which was unpopular in the past, has gorgeously transformed into a new era. \"White oil\", its value has skyrocketed, and a ton is hard to find!</b><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4f75d0ede21223eaf9fe549bb0924110\" tg-width=\"2048\" tg-height=\"1365\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>In just over a year, it has risen from 50,000/ton to 500,000/ton. This is crazy lithium (lithium carbonate)!</p><p>Thanks to the outbreak of the new energy vehicle market, the \"industrial monosodium glutamate\" lithium, which was unpopular in the past, has been transformed into the \"white oil\" of the new era, and its value has skyrocketed, making it hard to find a ton.</p><p>Such an amazing increase has attracted the attention of many people. On March 26, Wan Gang, vice chairman of the National Committee of the Chinese People's Political Consultative Conference and chairman of the China Association for Science and Technology, also expressed his shock: \"Lithium carbonate can actually increase 10 times last year!\"</p><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NIO\">Nio</a>Chairman Li Bin pointed out that the price increase of lithium carbonate is speculative, and some people are speculating.</p><p>In the past year, the rise in lithium prices has made some traders who hoard goods profit a lot and achieved a counterattack in life; It also makes power battery manufacturers and automobile companies complain endlessly, which is unbearable.</p><p>Anxiety and worry are creeping in. This \"bloody case\" triggered by the price increase of lithium carbonate has pushed up the price of power batteries, and it has also been transmitted to the automobile sales side. Since March, many automobile companies have raised prices one after another and no longer hide it.</p><p>Although this violent wave of lithium carbonate price increases has speculation, the root cause is still the imbalance between supply and demand. In the short term, it is difficult for the prices of lithium carbonate and power batteries to fall. This is disastrous for many car companies, and the electric car industry is about to usher in a major reshuffle.</p><p>Some car brands may disappear from now on.</p><p>Ten times a year</p><p>An unexpected wave of price increases for electric vehicles was staged in March.</p><p>GAC Aian,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TSLA\">Tesla</a>, Chery, XPeng, Nezha, Leapmotor, Weimar, Great Wall Euler, etc., nearly 20 car companies have announced price increases, ranging from 3,000 to 30,000.</p><p>Even those with self-produced batteries<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/002594\">BYD</a>I didn't hold it either. March 16,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/002594\">BYD</a>The price of a total of 39 configurations of its 10 models has been adjusted, ranging from 3,000 to 6,000 yuan.</p><p>It can be seen that in this wave of price increases in March, few car companies continued to be reserved. This seems to be a release that has been suppressed for a long time.</p><p>The trigger for this wave of price increases is the sharp increase in the cost of raw materials for power batteries, especially the jump in the price of lithium carbonate, an important cathode raw material for batteries.</p><p>SMM (Shanghai Nonferrous Metals) data shows that in just one year, the price of lithium carbonate has risen from 54,600 yuan at the beginning of 2021 to 516,500 yuan/ton in March 2022.</p><p>With such a huge increase in raw materials, downstream battery manufacturers have also increased prices.<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/688567\">Funeng Technology</a>Zhang Feng, senior vice president and secretary-general of the board of directors, said that the current price increase of power batteries is basically above 25%.</p><p>March 19th,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/LI\">Li Auto</a>Chairman and CEO Li Xiang is also here<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/WB\">Weibo</a>The document stated that the increase in battery costs in the second quarter was outrageous.</p><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/600958\">Orient Securities</a>The research report shows that even for leading battery companies with large scale and strong bargaining power, their advantages in long-term order price locking and raw material locking capabilities cannot match the increase in raw material prices.</p><p>March 21st,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/300750\">Ningde era</a>Said that due to the sharp rise in the price of upstream raw materials, the company will dynamically adjust the prices of some battery products.</p><p>The cost pressure of battery manufacturers is huge, so it has to be transmitted downward to avoid \"breaking the defense\". However, the car companies that had just experienced the reduction of subsidies a year ago were not profitable at all. Faced with the menacing high-priced batteries and insufficient production capacity, they had no choice but to raise prices to maintain the balance between profits and production and sales.</p><p>On the one hand, battery manufacturers and automobile companies are caught in a tug-of-war, and on the other hand, the soaring price of lithium has made mining companies make a lot of money. According to lithium battery giants<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/002460\">Ganfeng Lithium</a>In the 2021 annual report, the company's revenue doubled year-on-year last year, and the net profit attributable to the parent company more than quadrupled (410%) to 5.228 billion yuan.</p><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/01772\">Ganfeng Lithium</a>The founder Li Liangbin took advantage of this wave of east wind, and his net worth soared to 36.5 billion yuan, firmly sitting on the throne of the richest man in Jiangxi in the \"2022 Hurun Global Rich List\".</p><p>Tianzi Lithium Industry, which has been mired in losses, relied on rising lithium prices to go ashore directly. Its 2021 performance forecast shows that it will directly reverse from a loss of 1.83 billion yuan in 2020 to a profit of 800-2.4 billion yuan, ending the two-year loss in one fell swoop.</p><p>Who's hyping?</p><p>The rise in lithium prices has become the \"target of public criticism\" in the new energy industry. Some people believe that there is a lot of speculation in it.</p><p>Chen Shihua, deputy secretary of the China Automobile Association, said that this round of unconventional rise in raw material prices cannot be simply attributed to the contradiction between supply and demand. It is an irrational rise. There are driving forces behind it. Some people may hoard goods and artificially take the opportunity to speculate.</p><p>In the process of turning lithium carbonate into battery installation, there are about four links: lithium mine-trader-battery manufacturer-automobile company. The upstream lithium mine/lithium salt lake water is mined, refined and produced as lithium carbonate; Then making positive electrode materials from the midstream, and then packaging them together with other materials into batteries; Finally, downstream companies purchase and install vehicles.</p><p>Between the upstream and midstream, there is also a \"mezzanine\" of lithium salt traders similar to market makers, which has played a role in fueling the flames in this round of rise.</p><p>Since most of the supply of lithium ore is locked in long-term orders, liquid lithium ore available for trading in the market is scarce. Since last year, lithium carbonate companies have settled at the \"current price\" every day. \"Customers who buy from the door don't ask about the price, and everyone takes the goods when they have them. Because there is no excess inventory, even trust relationships can't get the goods.\" A lithium carbonate company in Qinghai said.</p><p>Faced with the tight supply of goods and the huge purchasing enthusiasm in the midstream, some traders are suspected of taking the opportunity to hoard goods and speculate, driving up market prices.</p><p>In the past, traders, as mezzanines, have always advanced payments and assumed risks for manufacturers. Now that the \"value of lithium has soared\", as middlemen, they have the opportunity and conditions to get a piece of the pie and even manipulate prices.</p><p>Many industry insiders reported that in the third quarter of last year, some traders took advantage of the seasonal production cuts of mining companies to actively stock up on goods. After the \"interception and reluctance to sell\", downstream procurement has become more difficult, and lithium prices have been pulled up.</p><p>From the fourth quarter of last year to the first quarter of this year, lithium prices soared again. Xiangcai Securities said that considering the seasonal production reduction of salt lakes during this period, the unstable overseas lithium supply, and the superimposed downstream Spring Festival stocking, the lithium price quickly pushed from 200,000 to 500,000.</p><p>In the next step of traders, the positive factories and battery factories are competing for hegemony and market share, expanding production at a high speed to meet the steady stream of battery orders from downstream companies. In order to avoid the occurrence of \"cooking without rice\" and disperse the uncertainty of the continued soaring lithium price, battery factories are also scrambling to hoard raw materials, and panic buying has added fuel to the already outrageous lithium price.</p><p>Supply and demand imbalance</p><p>What made lithium carbonate, which was less than 40,000/ton four years ago, so crazy? The root cause is still the imbalance between supply and demand.</p><p>Along with the rise in lithium prices, in 2021, which is known as the \"first year of new energy vehicles\", the production and sales of new energy vehicles have both passed the 3.5 million mark, a surge of 1.6 times.</p><p>This trend continues this year. According to data from the Passenger Car Association, retail sales of new energy passenger vehicles reached 272,000 units in February, a year-on-year increase of 180.5%. From January to February this year, retail sales of new energy passenger vehicles reached 624,000 units, a year-on-year increase of 153.2%.</p><p>Various car companies have put forward amazing production capacity plans and tried their best to expand production.<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TSLA\">Tesla</a>It is planned that sales this year will increase by 50% compared with last year, that is, about 1.5 million vehicles, and sales will reach 20 million vehicles in 2030.</p><p>Ideal has a sales target of 1.6 million units in 2025; XPeng also proposed to reach a market share of 10% by 2025, and it is estimated that it will exceed one million vehicles.</p><p>The blowout demand has led to a shortage of power batteries, leaving a huge gap. Previously, SNEResearch predicted that the global demand for power batteries in electric vehicles will reach 406 gigawatt hours by 2023, while the supply of power batteries is expected to be 335 gigawatt hours, a gap of about 18%. By 2025, the gap will widen to about 40%.</p><p>At the same time, as the main raw material of power batteries, the supply of lithium is seriously in short supply.</p><p>Before, as a raw material that was not very \"popular\", 80% of domestic lithium carbonate relied on overseas imports.</p><p>In 2020, many factors caused lithium prices to fall into a trough, falling back to ten years ago, and several major producers in the world declared bankruptcy; In 2021, the new energy vehicle market will explode, and the demand for power batteries will increase greatly. Although some lithium mines have plans to build/expand production, they have been postponed or interrupted due to the epidemic, and production capacity has not kept up.</p><p>According to statistics from the International Energy Agency, it takes an average of 7 years from discovery to production of salt lakes in South America, and an average of 4 years from discovery to production of spodumene mines in Australia. The production capacity construction period is long, lithium supply is rigid, and lithium prices start to rise strongly due to the contradiction between supply and demand.</p><p>The skyrocketing price of lithium carbonate has aroused great concern from relevant departments. On March 16, the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology made it clear that it would crack down on unfair competition behaviors such as hoarding of lithium, nickel and other resources and price gouging. It also conducted interviews with some lithium salt companies and guided lithium salt companies to ship directly to the midstream. \"I hope everyone will rise. Slow down a bit\".</p><p>Affected by regulation, the current price of lithium carbonate has fallen below the 500,000 yuan/ton mark. SMM data As of March 30, the average price of battery-grade lithium iron phosphate has reached 485,000/ton.</p><p>Some brokerage institutions also said that the purchase price of lithium carbonate has begun to loosen, and the actual transaction price is 450,000-500,000 yuan/ton.</p><p>The boycott in the middle and lower reaches is also a force. Wall Street has learned that not one or two midstream and downstream cathode factories and battery factories have boycotted and abandoned the mining of more than 500,000 high-priced lithium salts.</p><p>Various signs indicate that the price of lithium ore has reached a high level, the risk of speculation is extremely high, and the relationship between supply and demand has begun to be reconstructed.</p><p>However, to solve the contradiction of demand mismatch, Guorong Securities believes that in the medium and long term, it will have to wait for the release of production capacity of overseas Western Australia lithium mines and Argentine salt lakes.</p><p>This means that the lithium gap will be difficult to solve in the short term, and car companies still have to endure constraints from battery prices and supply.</p><p>Enterprise reshuffle</p><p>The surge in lithium prices and the resulting increase in power battery prices have dealt a fatal blow to some car companies.</p><p>In a new energy vehicle, the cost of power batteries accounts for 30% to 40%. Obviously, this is extremely unfavorable to car companies with low total prices and low gross profit margins.</p><p>In the wave of price increases, A00-A0 class pure electric vehicles with a price of less than 100,000 yuan are under greater pressure. Many car companies have said that consumers in this range are extremely sensitive to prices.</p><p>Data from the Passenger Car Association shows that in January this year, a total of 28 A00-class pure electric vehicles were on sale in the Chinese market, with prices of around 100,000 yuan. Among them, the prices of Wuling Hongguang MINIEV1, Euler Black Cat, and White Cat did not exceed 90,000 yuan.</p><p>Rising costs have greatly squeezed the profit margin of the A00 model. According to SAIC-GM<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/00305\">Wuling Motors</a>In the 2020 financial report, the company's revenue was 72.927 billion yuan, but the net profit attributable to the parent company was only 142 million yuan, which was only 89 yuan allocated to each vehicle.</p><p>Some models have even lost money. On February 14, the Euler brand issued a notice requesting dealers to suspend accepting orders for Euler black cats and white cats.</p><p>On February 23, 2022, Dong Yudong, CEO of the Euler brand, responded to the \"production suspension storm\" and said frankly: Although the Euler brand has the advantages of the industrial chain behind it, this small car still brings huge losses to the company! Black Cat's single unit loss exceeded 10,000 yuan.</p><p>In fact, the reason why the A00 model dared to sell at such a small profit before is because under the dual-point policy of new energy vehicles, the points obtained from selling electric vehicles have strong liquidity.</p><p>However, the preferential policy of points is gradually ebbing, and the pressure of upstream price increases is difficult to transmit to consumers. Facing this round of price increases, car companies in the mid-to low-end market have become a difficult problem to survive.</p><p>On the other hand, mid-to-high-end car companies are more adaptable. Tesla's orders have not been affected by the price increase at present. The delivery cycle of Model 3 and Y has been extended to 16 to 20 weeks, and some models have even been scheduled until early 2023.</p><p>Wall Street Insights learned from the XPeng Automobile Store that since the price increase was announced three days in advance, even after the price adjustment, sales were very stable.</p><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/000750\">Guohai Securities</a>It is believed that the wave of price increases will be a reshuffle of the new energy vehicle market, and the market share will be further concentrated on high-quality brands. According to data from the Passenger Car Association, 11 car companies did not report sales last year. From January to February this year, this number rose to 22.</p><p>\"In the future, 80% of independent brands will be closed, stopped, merged, and transferred, and 90% of the new car manufacturing forces will be finished. In the entire automobile market, the top companies will face huge survival and development problems, and they may all be Can't live.\"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/000625\">Changan Automobile</a>Chairman Zhu Huarong believes.</p><p>At the annual meeting of entrepreneurs in January,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/XPEV\">XPeng vehicles</a>Chairman He XPeng also said frankly, \"After a few years, the whole<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/5RE.SI\">smart</a>The automobile field will enter the Warring States Period from the Spring and Autumn Period, from the qualifying round to the knockout round. \"</p><p>From industrial monosodium glutamate to white petroleum, the popularity of lithium reflects the extraordinary development of electric vehicles and witnessed the beginning of the global energy revolution, but the future is not very clear.</p><p>In fact, under the test of skyrocketing raw materials and battery shortages led by lithium, the knockout competition of car companies has been accelerating.</p><p>\"You die before you start.\" No one wants to disappear as soon as the new energy vehicle market is competing for hegemony, but the fact is cruel. In this chicken-eating game of price increases, only the strong can become the ultimate survivor.</p><p></body></html></p>","source":"wallstreetcn_api","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Crazy Lithium: 10x a Year, Who's Hyping?</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nCrazy Lithium: 10x a Year, Who's Hyping?\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">华尔街见闻</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2022-04-10 09:01</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><html><head></head><body><b>From obscurity to shaking up the industry.</b><b>In just over a year, it has risen from 50,000/ton to 500,000/ton. The madness of lithium has benefited from the outbreak of the new energy vehicle market. The \"industrial monosodium glutamate\" lithium, which was unpopular in the past, has gorgeously transformed into a new era. \"White oil\", its value has skyrocketed, and a ton is hard to find!</b><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4f75d0ede21223eaf9fe549bb0924110\" tg-width=\"2048\" tg-height=\"1365\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>In just over a year, it has risen from 50,000/ton to 500,000/ton. This is crazy lithium (lithium carbonate)!</p><p>Thanks to the outbreak of the new energy vehicle market, the \"industrial monosodium glutamate\" lithium, which was unpopular in the past, has been transformed into the \"white oil\" of the new era, and its value has skyrocketed, making it hard to find a ton.</p><p>Such an amazing increase has attracted the attention of many people. On March 26, Wan Gang, vice chairman of the National Committee of the Chinese People's Political Consultative Conference and chairman of the China Association for Science and Technology, also expressed his shock: \"Lithium carbonate can actually increase 10 times last year!\"</p><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NIO\">Nio</a>Chairman Li Bin pointed out that the price increase of lithium carbonate is speculative, and some people are speculating.</p><p>In the past year, the rise in lithium prices has made some traders who hoard goods profit a lot and achieved a counterattack in life; It also makes power battery manufacturers and automobile companies complain endlessly, which is unbearable.</p><p>Anxiety and worry are creeping in. This \"bloody case\" triggered by the price increase of lithium carbonate has pushed up the price of power batteries, and it has also been transmitted to the automobile sales side. Since March, many automobile companies have raised prices one after another and no longer hide it.</p><p>Although this violent wave of lithium carbonate price increases has speculation, the root cause is still the imbalance between supply and demand. In the short term, it is difficult for the prices of lithium carbonate and power batteries to fall. This is disastrous for many car companies, and the electric car industry is about to usher in a major reshuffle.</p><p>Some car brands may disappear from now on.</p><p>Ten times a year</p><p>An unexpected wave of price increases for electric vehicles was staged in March.</p><p>GAC Aian,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TSLA\">Tesla</a>, Chery, XPeng, Nezha, Leapmotor, Weimar, Great Wall Euler, etc., nearly 20 car companies have announced price increases, ranging from 3,000 to 30,000.</p><p>Even those with self-produced batteries<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/002594\">BYD</a>I didn't hold it either. March 16,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/002594\">BYD</a>The price of a total of 39 configurations of its 10 models has been adjusted, ranging from 3,000 to 6,000 yuan.</p><p>It can be seen that in this wave of price increases in March, few car companies continued to be reserved. This seems to be a release that has been suppressed for a long time.</p><p>The trigger for this wave of price increases is the sharp increase in the cost of raw materials for power batteries, especially the jump in the price of lithium carbonate, an important cathode raw material for batteries.</p><p>SMM (Shanghai Nonferrous Metals) data shows that in just one year, the price of lithium carbonate has risen from 54,600 yuan at the beginning of 2021 to 516,500 yuan/ton in March 2022.</p><p>With such a huge increase in raw materials, downstream battery manufacturers have also increased prices.<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/688567\">Funeng Technology</a>Zhang Feng, senior vice president and secretary-general of the board of directors, said that the current price increase of power batteries is basically above 25%.</p><p>March 19th,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/LI\">Li Auto</a>Chairman and CEO Li Xiang is also here<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/WB\">Weibo</a>The document stated that the increase in battery costs in the second quarter was outrageous.</p><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/600958\">Orient Securities</a>The research report shows that even for leading battery companies with large scale and strong bargaining power, their advantages in long-term order price locking and raw material locking capabilities cannot match the increase in raw material prices.</p><p>March 21st,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/300750\">Ningde era</a>Said that due to the sharp rise in the price of upstream raw materials, the company will dynamically adjust the prices of some battery products.</p><p>The cost pressure of battery manufacturers is huge, so it has to be transmitted downward to avoid \"breaking the defense\". However, the car companies that had just experienced the reduction of subsidies a year ago were not profitable at all. Faced with the menacing high-priced batteries and insufficient production capacity, they had no choice but to raise prices to maintain the balance between profits and production and sales.</p><p>On the one hand, battery manufacturers and automobile companies are caught in a tug-of-war, and on the other hand, the soaring price of lithium has made mining companies make a lot of money. According to lithium battery giants<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/002460\">Ganfeng Lithium</a>In the 2021 annual report, the company's revenue doubled year-on-year last year, and the net profit attributable to the parent company more than quadrupled (410%) to 5.228 billion yuan.</p><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/01772\">Ganfeng Lithium</a>The founder Li Liangbin took advantage of this wave of east wind, and his net worth soared to 36.5 billion yuan, firmly sitting on the throne of the richest man in Jiangxi in the \"2022 Hurun Global Rich List\".</p><p>Tianzi Lithium Industry, which has been mired in losses, relied on rising lithium prices to go ashore directly. Its 2021 performance forecast shows that it will directly reverse from a loss of 1.83 billion yuan in 2020 to a profit of 800-2.4 billion yuan, ending the two-year loss in one fell swoop.</p><p>Who's hyping?</p><p>The rise in lithium prices has become the \"target of public criticism\" in the new energy industry. Some people believe that there is a lot of speculation in it.</p><p>Chen Shihua, deputy secretary of the China Automobile Association, said that this round of unconventional rise in raw material prices cannot be simply attributed to the contradiction between supply and demand. It is an irrational rise. There are driving forces behind it. Some people may hoard goods and artificially take the opportunity to speculate.</p><p>In the process of turning lithium carbonate into battery installation, there are about four links: lithium mine-trader-battery manufacturer-automobile company. The upstream lithium mine/lithium salt lake water is mined, refined and produced as lithium carbonate; Then making positive electrode materials from the midstream, and then packaging them together with other materials into batteries; Finally, downstream companies purchase and install vehicles.</p><p>Between the upstream and midstream, there is also a \"mezzanine\" of lithium salt traders similar to market makers, which has played a role in fueling the flames in this round of rise.</p><p>Since most of the supply of lithium ore is locked in long-term orders, liquid lithium ore available for trading in the market is scarce. Since last year, lithium carbonate companies have settled at the \"current price\" every day. \"Customers who buy from the door don't ask about the price, and everyone takes the goods when they have them. Because there is no excess inventory, even trust relationships can't get the goods.\" A lithium carbonate company in Qinghai said.</p><p>Faced with the tight supply of goods and the huge purchasing enthusiasm in the midstream, some traders are suspected of taking the opportunity to hoard goods and speculate, driving up market prices.</p><p>In the past, traders, as mezzanines, have always advanced payments and assumed risks for manufacturers. Now that the \"value of lithium has soared\", as middlemen, they have the opportunity and conditions to get a piece of the pie and even manipulate prices.</p><p>Many industry insiders reported that in the third quarter of last year, some traders took advantage of the seasonal production cuts of mining companies to actively stock up on goods. After the \"interception and reluctance to sell\", downstream procurement has become more difficult, and lithium prices have been pulled up.</p><p>From the fourth quarter of last year to the first quarter of this year, lithium prices soared again. Xiangcai Securities said that considering the seasonal production reduction of salt lakes during this period, the unstable overseas lithium supply, and the superimposed downstream Spring Festival stocking, the lithium price quickly pushed from 200,000 to 500,000.</p><p>In the next step of traders, the positive factories and battery factories are competing for hegemony and market share, expanding production at a high speed to meet the steady stream of battery orders from downstream companies. In order to avoid the occurrence of \"cooking without rice\" and disperse the uncertainty of the continued soaring lithium price, battery factories are also scrambling to hoard raw materials, and panic buying has added fuel to the already outrageous lithium price.</p><p>Supply and demand imbalance</p><p>What made lithium carbonate, which was less than 40,000/ton four years ago, so crazy? The root cause is still the imbalance between supply and demand.</p><p>Along with the rise in lithium prices, in 2021, which is known as the \"first year of new energy vehicles\", the production and sales of new energy vehicles have both passed the 3.5 million mark, a surge of 1.6 times.</p><p>This trend continues this year. According to data from the Passenger Car Association, retail sales of new energy passenger vehicles reached 272,000 units in February, a year-on-year increase of 180.5%. From January to February this year, retail sales of new energy passenger vehicles reached 624,000 units, a year-on-year increase of 153.2%.</p><p>Various car companies have put forward amazing production capacity plans and tried their best to expand production.<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TSLA\">Tesla</a>It is planned that sales this year will increase by 50% compared with last year, that is, about 1.5 million vehicles, and sales will reach 20 million vehicles in 2030.</p><p>Ideal has a sales target of 1.6 million units in 2025; XPeng also proposed to reach a market share of 10% by 2025, and it is estimated that it will exceed one million vehicles.</p><p>The blowout demand has led to a shortage of power batteries, leaving a huge gap. Previously, SNEResearch predicted that the global demand for power batteries in electric vehicles will reach 406 gigawatt hours by 2023, while the supply of power batteries is expected to be 335 gigawatt hours, a gap of about 18%. By 2025, the gap will widen to about 40%.</p><p>At the same time, as the main raw material of power batteries, the supply of lithium is seriously in short supply.</p><p>Before, as a raw material that was not very \"popular\", 80% of domestic lithium carbonate relied on overseas imports.</p><p>In 2020, many factors caused lithium prices to fall into a trough, falling back to ten years ago, and several major producers in the world declared bankruptcy; In 2021, the new energy vehicle market will explode, and the demand for power batteries will increase greatly. Although some lithium mines have plans to build/expand production, they have been postponed or interrupted due to the epidemic, and production capacity has not kept up.</p><p>According to statistics from the International Energy Agency, it takes an average of 7 years from discovery to production of salt lakes in South America, and an average of 4 years from discovery to production of spodumene mines in Australia. The production capacity construction period is long, lithium supply is rigid, and lithium prices start to rise strongly due to the contradiction between supply and demand.</p><p>The skyrocketing price of lithium carbonate has aroused great concern from relevant departments. On March 16, the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology made it clear that it would crack down on unfair competition behaviors such as hoarding of lithium, nickel and other resources and price gouging. It also conducted interviews with some lithium salt companies and guided lithium salt companies to ship directly to the midstream. \"I hope everyone will rise. Slow down a bit\".</p><p>Affected by regulation, the current price of lithium carbonate has fallen below the 500,000 yuan/ton mark. SMM data As of March 30, the average price of battery-grade lithium iron phosphate has reached 485,000/ton.</p><p>Some brokerage institutions also said that the purchase price of lithium carbonate has begun to loosen, and the actual transaction price is 450,000-500,000 yuan/ton.</p><p>The boycott in the middle and lower reaches is also a force. Wall Street has learned that not one or two midstream and downstream cathode factories and battery factories have boycotted and abandoned the mining of more than 500,000 high-priced lithium salts.</p><p>Various signs indicate that the price of lithium ore has reached a high level, the risk of speculation is extremely high, and the relationship between supply and demand has begun to be reconstructed.</p><p>However, to solve the contradiction of demand mismatch, Guorong Securities believes that in the medium and long term, it will have to wait for the release of production capacity of overseas Western Australia lithium mines and Argentine salt lakes.</p><p>This means that the lithium gap will be difficult to solve in the short term, and car companies still have to endure constraints from battery prices and supply.</p><p>Enterprise reshuffle</p><p>The surge in lithium prices and the resulting increase in power battery prices have dealt a fatal blow to some car companies.</p><p>In a new energy vehicle, the cost of power batteries accounts for 30% to 40%. Obviously, this is extremely unfavorable to car companies with low total prices and low gross profit margins.</p><p>In the wave of price increases, A00-A0 class pure electric vehicles with a price of less than 100,000 yuan are under greater pressure. Many car companies have said that consumers in this range are extremely sensitive to prices.</p><p>Data from the Passenger Car Association shows that in January this year, a total of 28 A00-class pure electric vehicles were on sale in the Chinese market, with prices of around 100,000 yuan. Among them, the prices of Wuling Hongguang MINIEV1, Euler Black Cat, and White Cat did not exceed 90,000 yuan.</p><p>Rising costs have greatly squeezed the profit margin of the A00 model. According to SAIC-GM<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/00305\">Wuling Motors</a>In the 2020 financial report, the company's revenue was 72.927 billion yuan, but the net profit attributable to the parent company was only 142 million yuan, which was only 89 yuan allocated to each vehicle.</p><p>Some models have even lost money. On February 14, the Euler brand issued a notice requesting dealers to suspend accepting orders for Euler black cats and white cats.</p><p>On February 23, 2022, Dong Yudong, CEO of the Euler brand, responded to the \"production suspension storm\" and said frankly: Although the Euler brand has the advantages of the industrial chain behind it, this small car still brings huge losses to the company! Black Cat's single unit loss exceeded 10,000 yuan.</p><p>In fact, the reason why the A00 model dared to sell at such a small profit before is because under the dual-point policy of new energy vehicles, the points obtained from selling electric vehicles have strong liquidity.</p><p>However, the preferential policy of points is gradually ebbing, and the pressure of upstream price increases is difficult to transmit to consumers. Facing this round of price increases, car companies in the mid-to low-end market have become a difficult problem to survive.</p><p>On the other hand, mid-to-high-end car companies are more adaptable. Tesla's orders have not been affected by the price increase at present. The delivery cycle of Model 3 and Y has been extended to 16 to 20 weeks, and some models have even been scheduled until early 2023.</p><p>Wall Street Insights learned from the XPeng Automobile Store that since the price increase was announced three days in advance, even after the price adjustment, sales were very stable.</p><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/000750\">Guohai Securities</a>It is believed that the wave of price increases will be a reshuffle of the new energy vehicle market, and the market share will be further concentrated on high-quality brands. According to data from the Passenger Car Association, 11 car companies did not report sales last year. From January to February this year, this number rose to 22.</p><p>\"In the future, 80% of independent brands will be closed, stopped, merged, and transferred, and 90% of the new car manufacturing forces will be finished. In the entire automobile market, the top companies will face huge survival and development problems, and they may all be Can't live.\"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/000625\">Changan Automobile</a>Chairman Zhu Huarong believes.</p><p>At the annual meeting of entrepreneurs in January,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/XPEV\">XPeng vehicles</a>Chairman He XPeng also said frankly, \"After a few years, the whole<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/5RE.SI\">smart</a>The automobile field will enter the Warring States Period from the Spring and Autumn Period, from the qualifying round to the knockout round. \"</p><p>From industrial monosodium glutamate to white petroleum, the popularity of lithium reflects the extraordinary development of electric vehicles and witnessed the beginning of the global energy revolution, but the future is not very clear.</p><p>In fact, under the test of skyrocketing raw materials and battery shortages led by lithium, the knockout competition of car companies has been accelerating.</p><p>\"You die before you start.\" No one wants to disappear as soon as the new energy vehicle market is competing for hegemony, but the fact is cruel. In this chicken-eating game of price increases, only the strong can become the ultimate survivor.</p><p></body></html></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> source：<a href=\"https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3656416\">华尔街见闻</a></p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4f75d0ede21223eaf9fe549bb0924110","relate_stocks":{"BK1575":"同股不同权","LI":"理想汽车","BK4527":"明星科技股","09868":"小鹏汽车-W","BK4531":"中概回港概念","02015":"理想汽车-W","BK4099":"汽车制造商","BK4511":"特斯拉概念","BK4526":"热门中概股","BK1582":"深圳本地概念股","BK4563":"昨日强势股","BK1587":"次新股","BK1594":"碳中和概念股","BK4534":"瑞士信贷持仓","BK4503":"景林资产持仓","BK4533":"AQR资本管理(全球第二大对冲基金)","BK4555":"新能源车","BK1522":"燃料电池","BK1539":"汽车股","NIO":"蔚来","02333":"长城汽车","TSLA":"特斯拉","BK4505":"高瓴资本持仓","XPEV":"小鹏汽车","BK4504":"桥水持仓","BK4550":"红杉资本持仓","BK1119":"汽车制造商","BK4548":"巴美列捷福持仓","BK1540":"电池","BK4532":"文艺复兴科技持仓","BK1509":"特斯拉概念股","BK4574":"无人驾驶","BK4551":"寇图资本持仓","BK4509":"腾讯概念","01211":"比亚迪股份","BK1588":"回港中概股","EVS.SI":"MSCI China Electric Vehicles and Future Mobility ETF-NikkoAM","BK4581":"高盛持仓"},"source_url":"https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3656416","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2225527069","content_text":"从默默无闻到撼动行业。仅仅一年多时间，从5万/吨涨到50万/吨，锂的疯狂得益于新能源汽车市场的爆发，过去不受待见的“工业味精”锂，华丽变身为新时代的“白色石油”，身价暴涨，一吨难求！仅仅一年多时间，从5万/吨涨到50万/吨，这就是疯狂的锂（碳酸锂）！得益于新能源汽车市场的爆发，过去不受待见的“工业味精”锂，华丽变身为新时代的“白色石油”，身价暴涨，一吨难求。如此惊人的涨幅，引起了许多人的关注。3月26日，全国政协副主席、中国科协主席万钢也表示惊到了:“碳酸锂居然可以在去年一年当中增⻓10倍!”蔚来董事⻓李斌则直指，碳酸锂的涨价有投机性，有人在炒作。过去一年，锂价上涨让一些囤货的贸易商获利颇丰，实现了人生的逆袭；也让动力电池厂商和汽⻋公司叫苦不迭，难以承受。焦虑和担忧正在蔓延。这场由碳酸锂涨价引发的“血案”，推高了动力电池的价格，也传导到了汽⻋销售端，3月开始，多家⻋企纷纷涨价，不再掩饰。这一波猛烈的碳酸锂涨价潮，固然有投机炒作的成分，但根源仍是供需关系不平衡。短期内，碳酸锂和动力电池的价格很难下跌。这对许多⻋企而言是灾难性的，电动⻋行业即将迎来一场大洗牌。一些汽⻋品牌，可能就要从此消失了。一年十倍一场猝不及防的电动⻋涨价潮，就这样在阳春三月上演了。广汽埃安、特斯拉、奇瑞、小鹏、哪吒、零跑、威⻢、⻓城欧拉等，近二十家⻋企纷纷宣布涨价，区间从3千-3万不等。就连自产电池的比亚迪也没扛住。3月16日，比亚迪对旗下10款⻋型共39款配置进行了调价，上调幅度从3-6千元不等。看得出，在3月的这波涨价潮中，没有几家⻋企继续矜持。这似乎是一次压抑许久的释放。而这波涨价的导火索，是动力电池原材料成本的大幅上涨，尤其是电池重要的正极原料碳酸锂价格的跳涨。SMM(上海有色)数据显示，短短一年的时间内，碳酸锂的价格从2021年初的5.46万元涨到了2022年3月的51.65万元/吨。原材料如此巨大的涨幅下，下游的电池厂商也跟着涨价。孚能科技高级副总裁兼董秘张峰表示，目前动力电池涨价基本都在25%以上。3月19日，理想汽车董事长兼CEO李想也在微博发文称，二季度电池成本上涨的幅度非常离谱。东方证券研报显示，即便是规模大、议价能力强的头部电池企业，其⻓单锁价、原材料锁定能力优势也无法匹配原材料涨价速度。3月21日，宁德时代表示，因为上游原材料价格大幅上涨，公司将动态调整部分电池产品价格。电池商的成本压力巨大，避免“破防”不得已向下传导。而年前刚经历过补贴退坡的⻋企，本就没盈利，面对来势汹汹的高价电池和产能不足，无奈只能选择涨价维持利润和产销的平衡。一边是电池厂商和汽⻋公司陷入拉锯战，另一边厢，锂价的⻜涨，让矿产公司赚得盆满钵满。根据锂电巨头赣锋锂业2021年报，公司去年营收同比增加了一倍，归母净利润翻了四倍多（410%）达到了52.28亿元。赣锋锂业创始人李良彬，则借着这波东风，身价飙升至365亿元，在《2022胡润全球富豪榜》中稳坐江西首富的宝座。一直深陷亏损泥潭的天⻬锂业，则靠着锂价上涨直接上岸。其2021年业绩预告显示，从2020年亏18.3亿，直接扭转为盈利8-24亿元，一举结束了⻓达两年的亏损。谁在炒作?锂价的上涨，成为了新能源产业的“众矢之的”，有人认为，这里面有很大的炒作成分。中汽协副秘书⻓陈士华称，本轮原材料价格超常规上涨，不能简单归结为供需矛盾，属于非理性上涨，其背后有推手，可能有人囤货居奇，人为借机炒作。在碳酸锂变为电池装⻋的过程中，大概有四个环节，锂矿-贸易商-电池厂商-汽⻋公司。上游锂矿/锂盐湖⻧水采选、精炼、生产为碳酸锂;再由中游制成正极材料、再和其他材料共同封装为电池;最后下游⻋企采购装⻋。而在上游和中游之间，还有一个类似做市商的锂盐贸易商“夹层”，在本轮的上涨中起到了推波助澜的作用。由于绝大部分锂矿供给被⻓单锁定，以至于市场上可供交易的流动性锂矿稀缺。去年至今，碳酸锂企业每天都是按“时价”结算，“上⻔求购的客户不问价格，大家都是有货就拿。因为没有多余库存，甚至托关系都拿不到货。”⻘海一家碳酸锂企业表示。面对货源的紧俏，和中游巨大的采购热情，一些贸易商疑似借机囤货炒作，哄抬市价。过去，贸易商作为夹层，一直为厂商垫付并承担⻛险，如今锂的“身价飙涨”，作为中间商就有机会也有条件分一杯羹，甚至操纵价格。多位业内人士反映，去年三季度，有贸易商趁着矿企季节性的减产而积极囤货。“截流惜售”后导致下游采购难度增大，锂价被拉升。而在去年四季度到今年一季度期间，锂价再次飙涨。湘财证券称，考虑该时段内盐湖季节性减产、海外锂供给不稳定，叠加下游春节备货，锂价迅速从20万级别推至50万级别。在贸易商下一环节的正级厂、电池厂，都在群雄争霸抢夺市占率，高速扩产以满足下游⻋企源源不断的电池订单。为了避免“无米之炊”发生，也要分散锂价持续疯⻓的不确定性，电池厂也争抢囤积原料，恐慌性的抢购给本就离谱的锂价火上添油。供需失衡是什么让四年前不到4万/吨的碳酸锂如此疯狂？根源仍在供需关系的失衡。伴随锂价上涨的，是在被称为“新能源汽⻋元年”的2021年，新能源汽⻋的产销，双双迈过了350万辆大关，暴涨1.6倍。这一趋势今年还在持续。乘联会数据显示，2月新能源乘用⻋零售销量达到27.2万辆，同比增⻓180.5%。今年1-2月，新能源乘用⻋零售销量达到62.4万辆，同比增⻓153.2%。各家⻋企都提出了惊人的产能规划，想方设法拼命扩产。特斯拉计划今年销售要比去年增长50%，也就是大约150万辆左右，2030年销量则要达到两千万辆。理想则有2025年160万台的销售目标；小鹏也提出了2025年要达到10%以上市占率，预估超百万辆。井喷的需求导致动力电池供不应求，缺口极大。此前SNEResearch预测，到2023年全球电动汽⻋对动力电池的需求达406千兆瓦时，而动力电池供应预计为335千兆瓦时，缺口约18%。到2025年，缺口将扩大到约40%。与此同时，作为动力电池的主要原材料，锂供给严重紧缺。之前作为一种不怎么“红”的原材料，国内有八成碳酸锂依赖海外进口。在2020年，诸多因素导致锂价陷入低谷，跌回十年前，全球几家主要的生产商宣告破产；而2021年，新能源汽车市场大爆发，对动力电池的需求大增，尽管一些锂矿有新建/扩产计划，但受疫情影响推迟或中断，产能未跟上。根据国际能源署统计，南美盐湖从发现至投产平均耗时7年，澳大利亚锂辉石矿山从发现至投产平均耗时4年，产能建设周期长，锂供给刚性，供需矛盾下锂价开启强势上涨。碳酸锂的疯涨，引起有关部⻔的高度关注。3月16日，工信部明确表示将打击锂、镍等资源囤积居奇、哄抬物价等不正当竞争行为，并对部分锂盐企业进行了约谈，指导锂盐企业直接出货给中游，“希望大家涨慢一点”。受监管影响，目前碳酸锂的价格已经跌破50万元/吨的大关。SMM数据截至3月30日，电池级磷酸铁锂的均价已经来到了48.5万/吨的位置。有券商机构也表示，碳酸锂采购价格已开始松动，实际成交价在45-50万元/吨。中下游的联合抵制也是一股力量。华尔街⻅闻了解到，中下游正极厂、电池厂抵制并弃采50万以上高价锂盐的，并非一两家。种种迹象显示，意味着，锂矿的价格已至高位，炒作风险极大，供需关系也开始重构了。但要解决需求错配的矛盾，国融证券认为，中⻓期还得等待海外⻄澳锂矿以及阿根廷盐湖的产能释放。这意味着，锂的缺口短期内难以解决，⻋企仍需忍受来自电池价格与供应的掣肘。⻋企洗牌锂价的飙升以及由此引发的动力电池价格上涨，给一些车企带来了致命一击。在一辆新能源汽车中，动力电池成本就占了三、四成。显然，这对总价低、毛利率低的车企极为不利。在涨价潮中，售价低于10万的A00-A0级纯电动车压力较大。多位车企人士曾表示，这一区间消费者对价格极其敏感。乘联会数据显示，今年1月份，中国市场共28款A00级纯电动汽⻋在售，价格在10万元左右，其中五菱宏光MINIEV1、欧拉黑猫、白猫价位都没超过9万。成本上涨对于A00⻋型盈利空间挤压很大。根据上汽通用五菱汽车2020年财报，公司营收额729.27亿元，但归属于母公司净利润仅为1.42亿元，分摊到每辆车上，仅有89元钱。甚至有的⻋型已经亏损。2月14日欧拉品牌下达通知，要求经销商暂停接受欧拉黑猫、白猫的订单。2022年2月23日，欧拉品牌CEO董玉东回应“停产风波“时坦言：虽然欧拉品牌背后有产业链的优势，但这款小车仍然给公司带来了巨额亏损！黑猫单台亏损超万元。实际上，此前A00⻋型之所以敢如此薄利销售，是因为在新能源汽⻋双积分政策下，销售电⻋获取的积分具有很强的变现能力。但积分优惠政策逐渐退潮，上游涨价的压力又难以向消费者传导，中低端市场的⻋企面对这一轮的涨价⻛波，生存便成了难题。反观中高端的车企，则是适应性更强一些。特斯拉的订单目前未受涨价影响，Model3和Y交付周期延⻓到了16~20周，甚至部分型号已经排到了2023年初。华尔街⻅闻从小鹏汽⻋⻔店了解到，由于这次涨价提前三天进行了预告，即便是调价后的销量也很稳定。国海证券认为，涨价潮将是对新能源汽⻋市场的一次洗牌，市场份额将向优质品牌进一步集中。乘联会的数据显示，去年有11家⻋企没有上报销量，今年的1-2月，这个数字上升到了22家。“未来80%的自主品牌会关、停、并、转，90%的造⻋新势力要玩完。在整个汽⻋市场，排名数一数二的企业都会面临巨大的生存和发展问题，都有可能会活不下去。”长安汽车董事长朱华荣认为。在1月份的创业家年会上，小鹏汽车董事长何小鹏也坦言，“几年之后，整个智能汽⻋领域会从春秋时期进入战国时期，从资格赛进入到淘汰赛。”从工业味精到白色石油，锂的走红折射了电动车的超常发展，以及见证了全球能源革命的开端，但未来并不十分清晰。事实上在以锂为首的这场原材料疯涨、电池紧缺的考验下，车企的淘汰赛已经在加速了。“出师未捷身先死”，群雄争霸的新能源汽车市场，谁也不想在一上场、刚冒头时就消失，但事实很残酷，在涨价的这场吃鸡游戏中，只有强者才能成为最终的幸存者。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"LI":0.6,"02333":0.9,"NIO":0.9,"02015":0.75,"TSLA":0.75,"09868":0.9,"01211":0.62,"XPEV":0.9,"EVS.SI":0.6}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":849,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9011440821,"gmtCreate":1648914356477,"gmtModify":1676534421470,"author":{"id":"3581647091503821","authorId":"3581647091503821","name":"谷岳HZ","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3581647091503821","authorIdStr":"3581647091503821"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/BILI\">$哔哩哔哩(BILI)$</a>nice","listText":"<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/BILI\">$哔哩哔哩(BILI)$</a>nice","text":"$哔哩哔哩(BILI)$nice","images":[{"img":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/8b505088d5a8fb295d8405029cedd78c","width":"640","height":"800"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9011440821","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":310,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9032649793,"gmtCreate":1647362658871,"gmtModify":1676534220871,"author":{"id":"3581647091503821","authorId":"3581647091503821","name":"谷岳HZ","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3581647091503821","authorIdStr":"3581647091503821"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"nice","listText":"nice","text":"nice","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9032649793","repostId":"1140768006","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1140768006","kind":"news","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"追踪全球财经热点，精选影响您财富的资讯，投资理财必备神器！","home_visible":1,"media_name":"华尔街见闻","id":"1084101182","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/66809d1f5c2e43e2bdf15820c6d6897e"},"pubTimestamp":1647327973,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1140768006?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2022-03-15 15:06","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"How do you view the current market? A drastic \"paradigm shift\"","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1140768006","media":"华尔街见闻","summary":"世界正在进行一场从全球化转向区域化的“范式转变”。如果这个判断是正确的，那么它可能带来的后果是：更脆弱的市场、更高的波动性、更低的流动性。该如何理解当下这个2020年3月以来最不稳定、最混乱的市场？近","content":"<p><html><head></head><body>The world is undergoing a \"paradigm shift\" from globalization to regionalization. If this judgment is correct, then its possible consequences are: more fragile markets, higher volatility, and lower liquidity. How to understand the most unstable and chaotic market since March 2020? Recently, Tony Pasqsuariello, the global head of hedge funds at Goldman Sachs, gave a wonderful summary: a drastic \"paradigm shift\".</p><p>In his latest market notes, the seasoned professional investor describes the market as \"a period characterized by epic high volatility and high-risk shifts\". He said:</p><p>\"A few months before the Russia-Ukraine conflict, the market had become complicated, and the difficulty of fund management increased significantly. The incident of the Russia-Ukraine conflict opened the door to a series of chaotic situations in the market, which most people have never considered. Potential tail risks.\" Generally speaking, this kind of research from the trading desk is more representative of Goldman Sachs' \"actual beliefs\" than sell-side research reports. Here are some brief views from Pasqsuariello on issues at the heart of today's market:</p><p><b>1. High volatility, deleveraging of US stocks</b></p><p>Since March, the total market value of U.S. stocks has lost trillions of dollars, and there has been a very serious \"deleveraging\" in the investment portfolio. However, the midweek case is a \"textbook\" education to investors why the timing of shorting must be \"impeccable\". (On Wednesday, the conflict between Russia and Ukraine showed signs of easing, global markets rebounded sharply, and the S&P index also rose rapidly.)</p><p>Moreover, while the red-hot CPI report, the \"unexpected hawkish\" ECB and the ongoing headlines surrounding the Russia-Ukraine conflict have created a series of<b>Quality \"super tactical opportunity\", but this may not be for the \"faint-hearted\".</b></p><p>Moreover, it is almost impossible to reproduce the similar situation in 2017: the average market volatility is only 18 basis points, the maximum peak-to-trough decline is only 2.8%, and the actual volatility for the whole year is only 6%, although 2017 doesn't seem to have passed long.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2bb5346699667a790a585923213c6abf\" tg-width=\"500\" tg-height=\"267\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p><b>2. The market is facing severe tests</b></p><p>If I asked you in June last year, if we were facing crude oil at $110/barrel, 8% inflation, and geopolitical conflicts in March 2022, would you guess that the S&P 500 would still remain at 4,200, while the Nasdaq Index also rebounded nearly 100% from its March 2020 low?</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/aa2dfce7f1764d9a843baca96382515b\" tg-width=\"840\" tg-height=\"470\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p>Admittedly, there is an opportunistic element to doing so, because this approach ignores the 21H2 valuation increase, but it is worth noting that the S&P 500 does not represent the depth of damage to a single stock and the breadth of damage coverage. For example, look at how crazy real interest rates are in the US right now.</p><p>In addition, some of the economic problems we are facing at present are much more severe than the stock market, which is one of the reasons why I don't agree with removing Russia from the global financial system now.</p><p>3. The magnitude of the pullback/retracement is \"eye-catching\", and pay attention to the credit bond market</p><p>In the absence of economic recession, S&P's 10%-20% pullback/retracement has been very \"eye-catching\" in history.</p><p><b>At the same time, I found that I started to worry more about the accumulation of downside risks. Again, I admit that this is more of an instinct than anything complicated.</b></p><p><b>Perhaps we should all start paying close attention to the funding markets. If there is an \"important signal\", the credit bond market may be one of the most worthy markets to track.</b></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/03838940920a938fb7aa09019ae14e9b\" tg-width=\"927\" tg-height=\"652\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p>It is worth mentioning that although compared with most stock markets in the world, S&P seems to have provided a \"safe haven\" status in recent times. But this will also be questioned by many people: we are forcing more and more capital to \"group up\" and enter a small number of the best American companies (such as Microsoft, Apple, etc.). While I sincerely believe that this is relatively correct to do, it is important to note:<b>The stakes are raising.</b></p><p><b>On the other side, I don't need to mention it, you already know that there has been a series of extraordinary rallies in the commodities space over the past few weeks.</b>To put it more rigorously, in the past two months, we have just witnessed the biggest rebound in commodity indexes since the 1970s.</p><p>4. \"Paradigm Shift\"</p><p>I think the trend is clearly visible to all right now, it's just being amplified by geopolitical tensions. So to speak,<b>The world is undergoing a \"paradigm shift\" from globalization to regionalization.</b>We are witnessing a transformation of the \"negative\" of the world from the fall of the Berlin Wall in 1989 to the Brexit referendum in 2016.</p><p>Then, some superficial thoughts ensued. But you can throw tomatoes at me if you want.</p><p><ul><li>It drives higher consumption of goods and affirms a potential \"super cycle\";</li><li>It pushes for a major restructuring of the West's power and defense complex;</li><li>It will eventually lead countries to increase investment in alternative energy (clean energy, etc.), but it is not a top priority;</li><li>It is highly likely to push up inflation, wage levels and reduce corporate efficiency;</li><li>It advocates more investment in technology, but it seems to have \"two sides\" and may even promote the separation of developed and emerging markets.</li></ul><b>If the argument about regionalization is more or less correct in the general direction, then its possible consequences are: more fragile markets, higher volatility, lower liquidity.</b></p><p>However,<b>I don't think this will be a \"persistent theme\".</b>Not only that, but I think,<b>For good fund managers and investment portfolios, the opportunities outweigh the risks in the long run.</b></p><p>5. Current status of global finance</p><p><b>(1) Current financial situation in the United States</b>: Significantly tightened, in my opinion, but still fairly loose in the longer historical dimension.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2d4438d3c5603243d4fcc3c876971ff9\" tg-width=\"961\" tg-height=\"691\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p><b>(2) Global financial status</b>: Note that the movement over the past month is the largest since the global financial crisis.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/78c8ecb59bafcbf3bf58d472cc1b8e2c\" tg-width=\"962\" tg-height=\"694\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p><b>(3) A basket of stocks related to U.S. economic growth performed as follows.</b></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0e6a4691b86ef9af35066e081dfb3a4a\" tg-width=\"960\" tg-height=\"694\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p><b>(4) Current status of a basket of stocks customized by Goldman Sachs: compared with the market average, the repurchase range is larger.</b>Given this chart, it may not be surprising that Goldman Research expects $1 trillion in buybacks in 2022.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e86fe5f826e687802c0b2910af87755a\" tg-width=\"965\" tg-height=\"696\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p><b>(5) This is not a comforting chart: UN World Food and Agricultural Price Index.</b></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/cab4a21226b64dc0ab11faf9f2ddb9f1\" tg-width=\"960\" tg-height=\"696\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p></body></html></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>How do you view the current market? A drastic \"paradigm shift\"</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nHow do you view the current market? A drastic \"paradigm shift\"\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/1084101182\">\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/66809d1f5c2e43e2bdf15820c6d6897e);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">华尔街见闻 </p>\n<p class=\"h-time smaller\">2022-03-15 15:06</p>\n</div>\n</a>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><html><head></head><body>The world is undergoing a \"paradigm shift\" from globalization to regionalization. If this judgment is correct, then its possible consequences are: more fragile markets, higher volatility, and lower liquidity. How to understand the most unstable and chaotic market since March 2020? Recently, Tony Pasqsuariello, the global head of hedge funds at Goldman Sachs, gave a wonderful summary: a drastic \"paradigm shift\".</p><p>In his latest market notes, the seasoned professional investor describes the market as \"a period characterized by epic high volatility and high-risk shifts\". He said:</p><p>\"A few months before the Russia-Ukraine conflict, the market had become complicated, and the difficulty of fund management increased significantly. The incident of the Russia-Ukraine conflict opened the door to a series of chaotic situations in the market, which most people have never considered. Potential tail risks.\" Generally speaking, this kind of research from the trading desk is more representative of Goldman Sachs' \"actual beliefs\" than sell-side research reports. Here are some brief views from Pasqsuariello on issues at the heart of today's market:</p><p><b>1. High volatility, deleveraging of US stocks</b></p><p>Since March, the total market value of U.S. stocks has lost trillions of dollars, and there has been a very serious \"deleveraging\" in the investment portfolio. However, the midweek case is a \"textbook\" education to investors why the timing of shorting must be \"impeccable\". (On Wednesday, the conflict between Russia and Ukraine showed signs of easing, global markets rebounded sharply, and the S&P index also rose rapidly.)</p><p>Moreover, while the red-hot CPI report, the \"unexpected hawkish\" ECB and the ongoing headlines surrounding the Russia-Ukraine conflict have created a series of<b>Quality \"super tactical opportunity\", but this may not be for the \"faint-hearted\".</b></p><p>Moreover, it is almost impossible to reproduce the similar situation in 2017: the average market volatility is only 18 basis points, the maximum peak-to-trough decline is only 2.8%, and the actual volatility for the whole year is only 6%, although 2017 doesn't seem to have passed long.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2bb5346699667a790a585923213c6abf\" tg-width=\"500\" tg-height=\"267\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p><b>2. The market is facing severe tests</b></p><p>If I asked you in June last year, if we were facing crude oil at $110/barrel, 8% inflation, and geopolitical conflicts in March 2022, would you guess that the S&P 500 would still remain at 4,200, while the Nasdaq Index also rebounded nearly 100% from its March 2020 low?</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/aa2dfce7f1764d9a843baca96382515b\" tg-width=\"840\" tg-height=\"470\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p>Admittedly, there is an opportunistic element to doing so, because this approach ignores the 21H2 valuation increase, but it is worth noting that the S&P 500 does not represent the depth of damage to a single stock and the breadth of damage coverage. For example, look at how crazy real interest rates are in the US right now.</p><p>In addition, some of the economic problems we are facing at present are much more severe than the stock market, which is one of the reasons why I don't agree with removing Russia from the global financial system now.</p><p>3. The magnitude of the pullback/retracement is \"eye-catching\", and pay attention to the credit bond market</p><p>In the absence of economic recession, S&P's 10%-20% pullback/retracement has been very \"eye-catching\" in history.</p><p><b>At the same time, I found that I started to worry more about the accumulation of downside risks. Again, I admit that this is more of an instinct than anything complicated.</b></p><p><b>Perhaps we should all start paying close attention to the funding markets. If there is an \"important signal\", the credit bond market may be one of the most worthy markets to track.</b></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/03838940920a938fb7aa09019ae14e9b\" tg-width=\"927\" tg-height=\"652\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p>It is worth mentioning that although compared with most stock markets in the world, S&P seems to have provided a \"safe haven\" status in recent times. But this will also be questioned by many people: we are forcing more and more capital to \"group up\" and enter a small number of the best American companies (such as Microsoft, Apple, etc.). While I sincerely believe that this is relatively correct to do, it is important to note:<b>The stakes are raising.</b></p><p><b>On the other side, I don't need to mention it, you already know that there has been a series of extraordinary rallies in the commodities space over the past few weeks.</b>To put it more rigorously, in the past two months, we have just witnessed the biggest rebound in commodity indexes since the 1970s.</p><p>4. \"Paradigm Shift\"</p><p>I think the trend is clearly visible to all right now, it's just being amplified by geopolitical tensions. So to speak,<b>The world is undergoing a \"paradigm shift\" from globalization to regionalization.</b>We are witnessing a transformation of the \"negative\" of the world from the fall of the Berlin Wall in 1989 to the Brexit referendum in 2016.</p><p>Then, some superficial thoughts ensued. But you can throw tomatoes at me if you want.</p><p><ul><li>It drives higher consumption of goods and affirms a potential \"super cycle\";</li><li>It pushes for a major restructuring of the West's power and defense complex;</li><li>It will eventually lead countries to increase investment in alternative energy (clean energy, etc.), but it is not a top priority;</li><li>It is highly likely to push up inflation, wage levels and reduce corporate efficiency;</li><li>It advocates more investment in technology, but it seems to have \"two sides\" and may even promote the separation of developed and emerging markets.</li></ul><b>If the argument about regionalization is more or less correct in the general direction, then its possible consequences are: more fragile markets, higher volatility, lower liquidity.</b></p><p>However,<b>I don't think this will be a \"persistent theme\".</b>Not only that, but I think,<b>For good fund managers and investment portfolios, the opportunities outweigh the risks in the long run.</b></p><p>5. Current status of global finance</p><p><b>(1) Current financial situation in the United States</b>: Significantly tightened, in my opinion, but still fairly loose in the longer historical dimension.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2d4438d3c5603243d4fcc3c876971ff9\" tg-width=\"961\" tg-height=\"691\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p><b>(2) Global financial status</b>: Note that the movement over the past month is the largest since the global financial crisis.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/78c8ecb59bafcbf3bf58d472cc1b8e2c\" tg-width=\"962\" tg-height=\"694\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p><b>(3) A basket of stocks related to U.S. economic growth performed as follows.</b></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0e6a4691b86ef9af35066e081dfb3a4a\" tg-width=\"960\" tg-height=\"694\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p><b>(4) Current status of a basket of stocks customized by Goldman Sachs: compared with the market average, the repurchase range is larger.</b>Given this chart, it may not be surprising that Goldman Research expects $1 trillion in buybacks in 2022.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e86fe5f826e687802c0b2910af87755a\" tg-width=\"965\" tg-height=\"696\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p><b>(5) This is not a comforting chart: UN World Food and Agricultural Price Index.</b></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/cab4a21226b64dc0ab11faf9f2ddb9f1\" tg-width=\"960\" tg-height=\"696\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p></body></html></p>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4f6ec6e99c0c8b9feb7f296b78c65a54","relate_stocks":{".DJI":"道琼斯",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index"},"source_url":"","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1140768006","content_text":"世界正在进行一场从全球化转向区域化的“范式转变”。如果这个判断是正确的，那么它可能带来的后果是：更脆弱的市场、更高的波动性、更低的流动性。该如何理解当下这个2020年3月以来最不稳定、最混乱的市场？近日，高盛的对冲基金全球负责人Tony Pasqsuariello对其给出了一个精彩的总结：一场剧烈的“范式转变”。在其最新的市场笔记中，这位经验老道的专业投资者将市场描述为“以史诗级的高波动率和高风险转移为特征的时期”。他表示：“在俄乌冲突发生前几个月，市场就已变得错综复杂，资金管理难度显著上升。而俄乌冲突这一事件，为市场上一系列混乱局势打开了大门，这是大多数人从未考虑过的、潜在的尾部风险。”通常来说，这种来自交易台的研究较卖方研报更能代表高盛的“实际信念”。以下是Pasqsuariello对当今市场核心问题的一些简要看法：1. 高波动率、美股去杠杆化3月以来，美股总市值流失了数万亿美元，且在投资组合中出现了非常严重的“去杠杆化”。然而，周中的案例却“教科书般”教育了投资者为何做空的时机必须“无懈可击”。（周三，俄乌冲突出现缓解迹象，全球市场出现大反弹，标普指数也迅速走高。）此外，虽然炙手可热的CPI报告、欧洲央行“意外鹰派”以及围绕俄乌冲突的持续头条新闻，为市场创造了一系列高质量的“超级战术机会”，但这可能并不适合“胆小”的人。而且，当下几乎不可能重现2017年类似的状况：平均市场波动仅为18个基点、最大峰谷跌幅仅为2.8%、全年实际波动率仅为6%，尽管2017年似乎并没有过去很久。2. 市场面临严峻考验如果在去年6月问你，如果2022年3月我们面临着110美元/桶的原油、8%的通胀率以及地缘政治冲突，你是否会猜测标普500指数仍会保持在4200点，同时纳斯达克指数还较2020年3月低点反弹了近100%？诚然，这么做有投机取巧的成分，因为这种方法忽略了21H2估值的上涨，但值得注意的是，标普500指数并不代表着单一股票受损的深度以及受损覆盖的广度。举例来说，请看看现在美国的实际利率有多疯狂。此外，当下我们面临的一些列经济问题要比股市严峻的多，这也是我为何不赞同现在就将俄罗斯从全球金融体系剔除的原因之一。3. 回撤幅度“受人瞩目”，关注信用债市场在经济没有走向衰退的情况下，标普10%-20%的回撤在历史上都是非常“受人瞩目”的。同时，我发现我开始更多地担心下行风险的累积。我再次承认，这更像是一种本能，而非任何复杂的东西。或许我们都应该开始密切关注融资市场。如果有“重要信号”发出的话，信用债市场可能是最值得跟踪的市场之一。值得一提的是，虽然相较于世界上大多数股票市场，标普似乎在最近的一段时间中提供了“避风港”的地位。但这样说也会遭来很多人的质疑：我们正迫使越来越多的资本“抱团”，进入一小部分最优质的美国公司（如微软、苹果等）。虽然我真诚地认为这样做相对来说是正确的，但需要注意的是：赌注正在提高。另一边，不需要我提及，你已经知道过去几周大宗商品领域出现了一系列非同寻常的反弹。严谨点说，过去两个月中，我们刚刚见证了大宗商品指数自1970年代以来的最大反弹。4. “范式转变”我认为现在所有人都可以清楚地看到趋势，它只是被地缘政治的紧张局势所放大了。可以这么说，世界正在进行一场从全球化转向区域化的“范式转变”。我们正目睹一场从1989年柏林墙倒塌到2016年英国脱欧公投期间以来世界“底片”的转换。那么，一些肤浅的想法随之而来。不过如果你愿意，可以尽情地朝我扔西红柿。它推动商品消费增加，并肯定了潜在的“超级周期”；它推动西方的权力和国防综合体进行重大重组；它最终会引领各国增加在替代能源（清洁能源等）上扩大投资，不过不是当务之急；它极有可能推高通货膨胀、工资水平并降低企业效率；它主张对技术进行更多投资，不过似乎又具有“两面性”，甚至可能推动发达国家和新兴市场的割裂。如果关于区域化这个论点，在大方向上或多或少是正确的，那么它可能带来的后果是：更脆弱的市场、更高的波动性、更低的流动性。不过，我不认为这会是一个“持续存在的主题”。不仅如此，我还认为，对于优秀的基金管理者以及投资组合来说，长期来看机遇是大于风险的。5. 全球金融现状（1）美国金融现状：在我看来，明显收紧，但在较长的历史维度上仍然相当宽松。（2）全球金融现状：请注意，过去一个月的变动幅度是自全球金融危机以来最大的。（3）一篮子与美国经济增长相关的股票表现如下。（4）高盛定制的一篮子股票现状：与市场平均水平相比回购幅度较大。鉴于此图表，高盛研究预计2022年1万亿美元回购规模可能不足为奇。（5）这不是一张令人欣慰的图表：联合国世界粮食和农产品价格指数。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{".SPX":0.9,".DJI":0.9,".IXIC":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":603,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9036649869,"gmtCreate":1647082095563,"gmtModify":1676534193993,"author":{"id":"3581647091503821","authorId":"3581647091503821","name":"谷岳HZ","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3581647091503821","authorIdStr":"3581647091503821"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"nice","listText":"nice","text":"nice","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9036649869","repostId":"2218249601","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"2218249601","kind":"news","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"中国大陆领先的金融数据、信息和软件服务企业，总部位于上海陆家嘴金融中心。","home_visible":1,"media_name":"Wind万得","id":"99","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c71e30d1317b4a5cb20a41998e10ac68"},"pubTimestamp":1647046791,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/2218249601?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2022-03-12 08:59","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"Global attention! The Fed's \"boots land\" next week, will risk sentiment reverse?","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2218249601","media":"Wind万得","summary":"下周，投资者将迎来美联储利率决议，市场预期此次会议将拉开加息的帷幕。海托华首席投资策略师斯蒂芬妮•林克(Stephanie Link) 表示：“从投资的角度来看，历史是站在我们这一边的。我们将拭目以待","content":"<p><html><head></head><body>Next week, investors will usher in the Federal Reserve's interest rate decision, and the market expects this meeting to kick off the rate hike. Stephanie Link, chief investment strategist at Hightower, said: \"From an investment perspective, history is on our side. We will wait and see how long this volatility lasts, but ultimately, the market will recover.\"</p><p>Rate hike is about to \"land its boots\", and shrinking balance sheet still needs to wait and see</p><p>Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell previously said he would propose a 25 basis point interest rate hike at the March Fed meeting amid high inflation, strong economic demand and a tight labor market, providing an unusually clear picture of expected policy action. forecast.</p><p>According to the Federal Reserve's preferred gauge, the consumer price index (CPI) reached a 40-year high of 7.9% in February and slightly above expectations of 7.8% this year. CPI rose 0.8% month-on-month, higher than expectations of 0.7%. Powell told lawmakers, \"This is strong and high inflation, and it's very important that we get it under control, and that's exactly what we're going to do.\"</p><p>Powell said he expects the Fed to also make \"good progress\" in preparing plans to shrink its $9 trillion asset portfolio, but the Fed will not finalize those plans at its March 15-16 meeting.</p><p>The point is that there has been a big swing in interest rate expectations, and it's likely to continue as the data comes out, which could add to volatility in the interest rate market and the yield curve, said Lauren Goodwin, economist and portfolio strategist at New York Life Investments. Since the beginning of the year, the yield curve has flattened significantly, with short-term interest rates rising sharply on expectations of Fed tightening, while longer-term yields rising less sharply.</p><p>The yield curve itself is viewed as an important indicator. Curve inversion, especially when 2-year or shorter-term U.S. Treasury yields are higher than 10-year U.S. Treasury yields, has been a reliable indicator of recession.</p><p>That hasn't happened yet, some analysts say, but the rapid flattening of the curve may reflect concerns that aggressive tightening by the Federal Reserve could send the economy into recession. Others have offered a more dovish explanation, with the flattening of interest rates reflecting expectations that a swift response from the Fed will help tame inflation without raising rates to incredible levels.</p><p>Will risk sentiment reverse?</p><p>The Federal Reserve's rate hike is about to \"land its boots\". Will it bring a boosting effect to the global market that has been volatile recently?</p><p>Dhaval Joshi of BCA Research said stocks could fall further in the near term. Unlike COVID-19 pandemic in 2019 when governments implemented tax cuts and increased spending, this time they are sanctioning Russia, which will also hurt its domestic economy. He is also worried that Europe's biggest refugee crisis in decades will trigger another wave of COVID-19 pandemic.</p><p>Josh said that on a three-month basis, inflation from skyrocketing energy and food prices will dampen economic growth. Bond yields are likely to edge higher as the Federal Reserve and other central banks respond, so global stocks haven't bottomed out yet and the dollar will rise, he said.</p><p>But on a 12-month basis, he expects global stock markets, especially the U.S., to rise. The U.S. stock market has a long duration of 30 years, which means the market should be valued at U.S. profits multiplied by the price of 30-year bonds, he said. \"Rising short-term inflation coupled with sanctions will cause great disruption to demand, and falling bond yields will have a boosting effect on U.S. stocks,\" he said.</p><p></body></html></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Global attention! The Fed's \"boots land\" next week, will risk sentiment reverse?</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nGlobal attention! The Fed's \"boots land\" next week, will risk sentiment reverse?\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/99\">\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/c71e30d1317b4a5cb20a41998e10ac68);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">Wind万得 </p>\n<p class=\"h-time smaller\">2022-03-12 08:59</p>\n</div>\n</a>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><html><head></head><body>Next week, investors will usher in the Federal Reserve's interest rate decision, and the market expects this meeting to kick off the rate hike. Stephanie Link, chief investment strategist at Hightower, said: \"From an investment perspective, history is on our side. We will wait and see how long this volatility lasts, but ultimately, the market will recover.\"</p><p>Rate hike is about to \"land its boots\", and shrinking balance sheet still needs to wait and see</p><p>Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell previously said he would propose a 25 basis point interest rate hike at the March Fed meeting amid high inflation, strong economic demand and a tight labor market, providing an unusually clear picture of expected policy action. forecast.</p><p>According to the Federal Reserve's preferred gauge, the consumer price index (CPI) reached a 40-year high of 7.9% in February and slightly above expectations of 7.8% this year. CPI rose 0.8% month-on-month, higher than expectations of 0.7%. Powell told lawmakers, \"This is strong and high inflation, and it's very important that we get it under control, and that's exactly what we're going to do.\"</p><p>Powell said he expects the Fed to also make \"good progress\" in preparing plans to shrink its $9 trillion asset portfolio, but the Fed will not finalize those plans at its March 15-16 meeting.</p><p>The point is that there has been a big swing in interest rate expectations, and it's likely to continue as the data comes out, which could add to volatility in the interest rate market and the yield curve, said Lauren Goodwin, economist and portfolio strategist at New York Life Investments. Since the beginning of the year, the yield curve has flattened significantly, with short-term interest rates rising sharply on expectations of Fed tightening, while longer-term yields rising less sharply.</p><p>The yield curve itself is viewed as an important indicator. Curve inversion, especially when 2-year or shorter-term U.S. Treasury yields are higher than 10-year U.S. Treasury yields, has been a reliable indicator of recession.</p><p>That hasn't happened yet, some analysts say, but the rapid flattening of the curve may reflect concerns that aggressive tightening by the Federal Reserve could send the economy into recession. Others have offered a more dovish explanation, with the flattening of interest rates reflecting expectations that a swift response from the Fed will help tame inflation without raising rates to incredible levels.</p><p>Will risk sentiment reverse?</p><p>The Federal Reserve's rate hike is about to \"land its boots\". Will it bring a boosting effect to the global market that has been volatile recently?</p><p>Dhaval Joshi of BCA Research said stocks could fall further in the near term. Unlike COVID-19 pandemic in 2019 when governments implemented tax cuts and increased spending, this time they are sanctioning Russia, which will also hurt its domestic economy. He is also worried that Europe's biggest refugee crisis in decades will trigger another wave of COVID-19 pandemic.</p><p>Josh said that on a three-month basis, inflation from skyrocketing energy and food prices will dampen economic growth. Bond yields are likely to edge higher as the Federal Reserve and other central banks respond, so global stocks haven't bottomed out yet and the dollar will rise, he said.</p><p>But on a 12-month basis, he expects global stock markets, especially the U.S., to rise. The U.S. stock market has a long duration of 30 years, which means the market should be valued at U.S. profits multiplied by the price of 30-year bonds, he said. \"Rising short-term inflation coupled with sanctions will cause great disruption to demand, and falling bond yields will have a boosting effect on U.S. stocks,\" he said.</p><p></body></html></p>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/42d623bf2f962cffafc93d5db7d45f9c","relate_stocks":{"161125":"标普500","513500":"标普500ETF","QQQ":"纳指100ETF","BK4559":"巴菲特持仓","BK4504":"桥水持仓","UDOW":"三倍做多道指30ETF-ProShares","UPRO":"三倍做多标普500ETF-ProShares","SQQQ":"纳指三倍做空ETF","BK4550":"红杉资本持仓","SPXU":"三倍做空标普500ETF-ProShares","SH":"做空标普500-Proshares","PSQ":"做空纳斯达克100指数ETF-ProShares","SSO":"2倍做多标普500ETF-ProShares","IVV":"标普500ETF-iShares","QLD":"2倍做多纳斯达克100指数ETF-ProShares","DXD":"两倍做空道琼30指数ETF-ProShares",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index","DDM":"2倍做多道指ETF-ProShares","DJX":"1/100道琼斯","SPY":"标普500ETF","OEX":"标普100","TQQQ":"纳指三倍做多ETF","OEF":"标普100指数ETF-iShares","SDOW":"三倍做空道指30ETF-ProShares","DOG":"道指ETF-ProShares做空","BK4581":"高盛持仓","QID":"两倍做空纳斯达克指数ETF-ProShares",".DJI":"道琼斯","SDS":"两倍做空标普500 ETF-ProShares","BK4534":"瑞士信贷持仓",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite"},"source_url":"","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2218249601","content_text":"下周，投资者将迎来美联储利率决议，市场预期此次会议将拉开加息的帷幕。海托华首席投资策略师斯蒂芬妮•林克(Stephanie Link) 表示：“从投资的角度来看，历史是站在我们这一边的。我们将拭目以待这场波动持续多久，但最终，市场将会复苏。”加息即将“靴子落地”，缩表还需等待观察美联储主席鲍威尔(Jerome Powell)此前表示，在通胀高企、经济需求强劲和劳动力市场紧张的情况下，他将在3月美联储会议上提议升息25个基点，这为预期的政策行动提供了异常明确的预估。根据美联储首选的指标，2月份消费者价格指数(CPI)达到7.9%，创40年来新高，略高于今年7.8%的预期。CPI环比上涨0.8%，高于预期的0.7%。鲍威尔对议员们说，“这是强劲高位的通货膨胀，我们要控制住它，这非常重要，这正是我们要做的。”鲍威尔说，他预计美联储在准备缩减9万亿美元资产组合的计划方面也会取得“良好进展”，但美联储不会在3月15日至16日的会议上敲定这些计划。纽约人寿投资公司(New York Life Investments)经济学家兼投资组合策略师古德温(Lauren Goodwin)说，关键是利率预期已经出现了大幅波动，而且随着数据的出炉，这种波动可能会持续下去，这可能会加剧利率市场和收益率曲线的波动性。自今年初以来，收益率曲线已明显趋平，短期利率因美联储收紧预期而大幅上升，而较长期收益率的升幅则不那么剧烈。收益率曲线本身就被视为一个重要的指标。曲线倒挂，特别是当2年期或较短期美债收益率高于10年期美债收益率时，一直是一个可靠的衰退指标。一些分析师说，这种情况尚未发生，但曲线迅速趋平可能反映出人们对美联储激进收紧政策可能导致经济陷入衰退的担忧。其他人则给出了一种较为温和的解释，利率的趋平反映出市场预期美联储迅速做出反应将有助于抑制通胀，而无需将利率升到令人难以置信的水平。风险情绪会逆转吗?美联储加息即将“靴子落地”，会给近期剧烈波动的全球市场带来提振效应吗?BCA Research的哈瓦尔•乔希(Dhaval Joshi)表示，股市短期内可能会进一步下跌。与2019年新冠疫情时各国政府实施减税和增加支出不同，这次他们是在制裁俄罗斯，这也将损害其国内经济。他还担心欧洲几十年来最大的难民危机会引发另一波新冠疫情。乔希说，以三个月为基准，能源和食品价格飞涨带来的通货膨胀将抑制经济增长。随着美联储和其他央行做出回应，债券收益率可能会小幅走高，因此他说，全球股市尚未触底，美元将会上涨。但从12个月来看，他预计全球股市，尤其是美国股市将会上涨。他说，美国股市的存续期很长，为30年，这意味着市场的估值应该是美国的利润乘以30年期债券的价格。他表示:“短期通胀升温加上制裁措施，将对需求造成极大破坏，届时，债券收益率下降将为美股带来提振效应。”","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"161125":0.6,"513500":0.6,"SSO":0.6,"PSQ":0.6,"QID":0.6,"IVV":0.6,"OEF":0.6,"QQQ":0.6,"UPRO":0.6,".SPX":0.6,"SPY":1,".IXIC":1,"ESmain":0.6,"TQQQ":0.6,"MNQmain":0.6,"UDOW":0.6,"OEX":0.6,"DDM":0.6,"SDS":0.6,"SH":0.6,".DJI":1,"QLD":0.6,"NQmain":0.6,"SQQQ":0.6,"DJX":0.6,"DOG":0.6,"SPXU":0.6,"SDOW":0.6,"DXD":0.6}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":501,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0}],"lives":[]}