谷岳HZ personal page - To The Moon

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2022-03-02

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Biden's State of the Union speech: A new plan to fight inflation will be drawn up, taking shipping to the knife

2022-03-10

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Commodities Parking for Fuel, or Historical Big Top?

2022-02-07

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2022-03-05

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Analysis | Non-farm performance is brilliant, the Federal Reserve has to step up its efforts to deal with inflation?

2022-02-08

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2022-04-06

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With the release of the Federal Reserve meeting minutes, is accelerated shrinking balance sheet a done deal?

2022-03-20

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2022-03-11

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Breaking 7 and approaching 8? How long can US inflation exceed market expectations?

2022-03-08

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2022-03-07

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Bank of America: Next is a global recession, and then QE5 will arrive.

Go to Tiger App to see more news

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Check out these mini-games, try them, stay with us and be PAWSITIVE!Remember to collect the cards and spell out \"T.I.G.E.R\" during your journey for a chance to receive the limited edition 8th Anniversary Gi","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":2,"paper":2,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9022524674","isVote":1,"tweetType":2,"object":{"id":"97af7069aa6440eab7c85601f72b41b1","tweetId":"9022524674","videoUrl":"https://1254107296.vod2.myqcloud.com/73ba5544vodgzp1254107296/5836ee3f387702302012189230/1IRQdazMc4YA.mp4","poster":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/f2462b20b2a9a2483ae56cbb54dcb2a7"},"viewCount":0,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":4108,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9048341621,"gmtCreate":1656148915763,"gmtModify":1676535776781,"author":{"id":"3581647091503821","authorId":"3581647091503821","name":"谷岳HZ","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3581647091503821","idStr":"3581647091503821"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/ACB\">$奥罗拉大麻公司(ACB)$</a>555555","listText":"<a 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href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/RELI\">$Reliance Global Group, Inc.(RELI)$</a>sell？","listText":"<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/RELI\">$Reliance Global Group, Inc.(RELI)$</a>sell？","text":"$Reliance Global Group, Inc.(RELI)$sell？","images":[{"img":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/8bda6c919011e8ab0cc1375b1a25f2cc","width":"640","height":"800"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9086638726","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":4095,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9088564819,"gmtCreate":1650365931326,"gmtModify":1676534705818,"author":{"id":"3581647091503821","authorId":"3581647091503821","name":"谷岳HZ","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3581647091503821","idStr":"3581647091503821"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/RELI\">$Reliance Global Group, Inc.(RELI)$</a>no～～～～","listText":"<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/RELI\">$Reliance Global Group, Inc.(RELI)$</a>no～～～～","text":"$Reliance Global Group, Inc.(RELI)$no～～～～","images":[{"img":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/a2c5f6ddf5f61d038a4a4bfb66ca1bac","width":"640","height":"800"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9088564819","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":3859,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9088564183,"gmtCreate":1650365904204,"gmtModify":1676534705817,"author":{"id":"3581647091503821","authorId":"3581647091503821","name":"谷岳HZ","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3581647091503821","idStr":"3581647091503821"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/EM\">$怪兽充电(EM)$</a>nice","listText":"<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/EM\">$怪兽充电(EM)$</a>nice","text":"$怪兽充电(EM)$nice","images":[{"img":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/1bb8d4cd4dcc8a327cc62f1903715653","width":"750","height":"1386"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9088564183","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":4969,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9088565664,"gmtCreate":1650365838956,"gmtModify":1676534705786,"author":{"id":"3581647091503821","authorId":"3581647091503821","name":"谷岳HZ","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3581647091503821","idStr":"3581647091503821"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"nice","listText":"nice","text":"nice","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9088565664","repostId":"1133635414","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1133635414","kind":"news","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"为用户提供金融资讯、行情、数据，旨在帮助投资者理解世界，做投资决策。","home_visible":1,"media_name":"老虎资讯综合","id":"102","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba"},"pubTimestamp":1650364528,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1133635414?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2022-04-19 18:35","market":"other","language":"zh","title":"Hasbro falls more than 2% premarket, first-quarter EPS misses market estimates","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1133635414","media":"老虎资讯综合","summary":"4月19日，孩之宝盘前发布财报，财报显示：一季度净营收11.6亿美元，市场预估11.5亿美元；一季度经调整后每股收益57美分，市场预估64美分。财报发布后，孩之宝盘前跌超2%。","content":"<p><html><head></head><body>On April 19th, Hasbro released its financial report before the market. The financial report showed that the net revenue in the first quarter was USD 1.16 billion, and the market estimate was USD 1.15 billion; Adjusted earnings per share in the first quarter were 57 cents, compared to the market estimate of 64 cents.</p><p>After the earnings release, Hasbro fell more than 2% before the market.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4a5a5936e34651e18a5c1db99e848749\" tg-width=\"529\" tg-height=\"472\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p></body></html></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Hasbro falls more than 2% premarket, first-quarter EPS misses market estimates</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nHasbro falls more than 2% premarket, first-quarter EPS misses market estimates\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/102\">\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">老虎资讯综合 </p>\n<p class=\"h-time smaller\">2022-04-19 18:35</p>\n</div>\n</a>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><html><head></head><body>On April 19th, Hasbro released its financial report before the market. The financial report showed that the net revenue in the first quarter was USD 1.16 billion, and the market estimate was USD 1.15 billion; Adjusted earnings per share in the first quarter were 57 cents, compared to the market estimate of 64 cents.</p><p>After the earnings release, Hasbro fell more than 2% before the market.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4a5a5936e34651e18a5c1db99e848749\" tg-width=\"529\" tg-height=\"472\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p></body></html></p>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/07599f4cd00579441137d14acdedbecc","relate_stocks":{"HAS":"孩之宝"},"source_url":"","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1133635414","content_text":"4月19日，孩之宝盘前发布财报，财报显示：一季度净营收11.6亿美元，市场预估11.5亿美元；一季度经调整后每股收益57美分，市场预估64美分。财报发布后，孩之宝盘前跌超2%。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"HAS":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":4412,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9088045850,"gmtCreate":1650294090454,"gmtModify":1676534688901,"author":{"id":"3581647091503821","authorId":"3581647091503821","name":"谷岳HZ","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3581647091503821","idStr":"3581647091503821"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"bad.....","listText":"bad.....","text":"bad.....","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9088045850","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":3855,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9088041764,"gmtCreate":1650293874820,"gmtModify":1676534688831,"author":{"id":"3581647091503821","authorId":"3581647091503821","name":"谷岳HZ","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3581647091503821","idStr":"3581647091503821"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"nice","listText":"nice","text":"nice","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9088041764","repostId":"9016476123","repostType":1,"repost":{"id":9016476123,"gmtCreate":1649229403658,"gmtModify":1676534474180,"author":{"id":"3527667667103859","authorId":"3527667667103859","name":"TigerEvents","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/d95d339b1f41503e283097a33ab3ba9d","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3527667667103859","idStr":"3527667667103859"},"themes":[],"title":"🏆【GAME】Hunting Eggs for Extra Saving!","htmlText":"Tiger has prepared some Easter gifts for you, please&nbsp;<a href=\"https://www.tigerbrokers.com.sg/activity/market/2022/easter/\" target=\"_blank\">click&nbsp;here</a>&nbsp;to check them out!Easter can still be a bonus-boosting. Come and find the eggs in our Easter game to open the surprise! Each game contains 3 rounds, the more eggs you catch, the higher the points you can get. Game points can be redeemed for various rewards, including different value stock vouchers worth up to USD 1,000 are waiting for you! Moreover, catching special eggs can get extra points and chances to crack open for some wonderful Easter treats.There are too many hidden surprises to find, oops, the game attempts run out too fast. Don't worry, complete different tasks to earn more game attempts. Also, invite your frien","listText":"Tiger has prepared some Easter gifts for you, please&nbsp;<a href=\"https://www.tigerbrokers.com.sg/activity/market/2022/easter/\" target=\"_blank\">click&nbsp;here</a>&nbsp;to check them out!Easter can still be a bonus-boosting. Come and find the eggs in our Easter game to open the surprise! Each game contains 3 rounds, the more eggs you catch, the higher the points you can get. Game points can be redeemed for various rewards, including different value stock vouchers worth up to USD 1,000 are waiting for you! Moreover, catching special eggs can get extra points and chances to crack open for some wonderful Easter treats.There are too many hidden surprises to find, oops, the game attempts run out too fast. Don't worry, complete different tasks to earn more game attempts. Also, invite your frien","text":"Tiger has prepared some Easter gifts for you, please click here to check them out!Easter can still be a bonus-boosting. Come and find the eggs in our Easter game to open the surprise! Each game contains 3 rounds, the more eggs you catch, the higher the points you can get. Game points can be redeemed for various rewards, including different value stock vouchers worth up to USD 1,000 are waiting for you! Moreover, catching special eggs can get extra points and chances to crack open for some wonderful Easter treats.There are too many hidden surprises to find, oops, the game attempts run out too fast. Don't worry, complete different tasks to earn more game attempts. Also, invite your frien","images":[{"img":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/15b435c0d10e0e89ad3e06b7bbd04830","width":"2251","height":"1334"},{"img":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/ff9640a9df2f24446e07b7a9b658cb4b","width":"1200","height":"630"},{"img":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/795038848b7c7b1d7dda27d92b580946","width":"1656","height":"948"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":2,"paper":2,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9016476123","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":0,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":3,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":3794,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9081599686,"gmtCreate":1650249847766,"gmtModify":1676534679092,"author":{"id":"3581647091503821","authorId":"3581647091503821","name":"谷岳HZ","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3581647091503821","idStr":"3581647091503821"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/BILI\">$哔哩哔哩(BILI)$</a>nice","listText":"<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/BILI\">$哔哩哔哩(BILI)$</a>nice","text":"$哔哩哔哩(BILI)$nice","images":[{"img":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/cf439e5945420aafe3128f72405bde36","width":"750","height":"1454"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9081599686","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":4015,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9081590611,"gmtCreate":1650249796514,"gmtModify":1676534679070,"author":{"id":"3581647091503821","authorId":"3581647091503821","name":"谷岳HZ","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3581647091503821","idStr":"3581647091503821"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/BILI\">$哔哩哔哩(BILI)$</a>nice","listText":"<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/BILI\">$哔哩哔哩(BILI)$</a>nice","text":"$哔哩哔哩(BILI)$nice","images":[{"img":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/f27e4f010c44f1b27dabbad9e0023e7c","width":"640","height":"800"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9081590611","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1553,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9081507526,"gmtCreate":1650249740420,"gmtModify":1676534679052,"author":{"id":"3581647091503821","authorId":"3581647091503821","name":"谷岳HZ","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3581647091503821","idStr":"3581647091503821"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"nice","listText":"nice","text":"nice","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9081507526","repostId":"2227075426","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"2227075426","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1650240226,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/2227075426?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2022-04-18 08:03","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"Bullish on undervalued Hong Kong stocks! Qiu Dongrong maintained a high position in the first quarter.","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2227075426","media":"媒体滚动","summary":"丘栋荣一季度维持高仓位运作，买入美团－W等港股基金一季报持续披露，丘栋荣管理的4只产品的一季度持仓也纷纷出炉。大举买入美团－W等港股从丘栋荣管理的4只产品的一季报来看，4只基金依然维持了高仓位运作，其中中庚价值领航混合、中庚小盘价值股票、中庚价值品质一年持有期混合的股票仓位，占基金总资产的比例分别为93.34%、92.59%和93.04%，中庚价值灵动灵活配置混合的股票仓位占基金总资产的比例为89.13%。","content":"<p><html><head></head><body>Bullish on undervalued Hong Kong stocks! Qiu Dongrong maintained a high position in the first quarter, buying Hong Kong stocks such as Meituan-W.</p><p>As fund first-quarter reports continue to be released, the first-quarter holdings of the four products managed by Qiu Dongrong have also been released.</p><p>Reporters noted that in the first quarter, Qiu Dongrong continued to maintain a high position and made some portfolio adjustments, such as Zhonggeng Value Leading Hybrid Fund making a large purchase of Hong Kong stocks such as Meituan-W; In terms of the small-cap value of Zhonggeng,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/600123\">Orchid Science and Technology Innovation</a>It is no longer among the top ten holdings.</p><p>Large-scale buying of Hong Kong stocks such as Meituan-W</p><p>According to the first-quarter reports of the four products managed by Qiu Dongrong, the four funds still maintained high positions. Among them, the stock positions of Zhonggeng Value Leading Hybrid Fund, Zhonggeng Small Cap Value Stock Fund, and Zhonggeng Value Quality One-Year Holding Period Hybrid Fund accounted for 93.34%, 92.59%, and 93.04% of the fund's total assets, respectively, while the stock positions of Zhonggeng Value Flexible Allocation Hybrid Fund accounted for 89.13% of the fund's total assets.</p><p>In terms of its top ten holdings, the top ten holdings of Zhonggeng Value Leading Hybrid Fund are Meituan-W,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/01378\">China Hongqiao</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/00883\">China National Offshore Oil</a>Kuaishou-W<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/000830\">Luxi Chemical</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/601128\">Changshu Bank</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/00688\">China's overseas development</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/603323\">Jiangsu Rural Bank</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/600383\">Gemdale Group</a>and<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/603368\">Liuyao Co., Ltd</a>。</p><p>As can be seen, half of the stocks are Hong Kong stocks. The biggest change is that Meituan-W has become the largest holding, and it did not hold any shares at the end of last year, which is a large-scale purchase in the first quarter of this year. In addition, Kuaishou-W held 1.2883 million shares as of the end of last year and 9.355 million shares at the end of the first quarter of this year, which is also a significant increase in its holdings.</p><p>Zhonggeng Value Quality One-Year Holding Period Hybrid Fund also holds significant positions in the Hong Kong stock market. Its top ten holdings are Meituan-W, China National Offshore Oil Corporation (CNOOC), Luxi Chemical, China Hongqiao, Changshu Bank, China Overseas Land & Investment, Kuaishou-W, and Jiangsu Rural Commercial Bank.<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/601677\">Mingtai Aluminum</a>Heliu Pharmaceutical Co., Overall, the holdings are highly similar to those of Zhonggeng Value Leading Hybrid Fund.</p><p>Meituan-W also entered the top ten and became the largest holding, while Kuaishou-W increased its holdings from 1.9354 million shares at the end of last year to 5.0404 million shares.</p><p>In his first-quarter report, Qiu Dongrong stated, \"After continuous adjustments, Hong Kong stock valuations are either low or completely cleared, and the overall valuation level of Hong Kong stocks is at an absolutely low level. Value stocks in Hong Kong are cheaper than their corresponding A-share counterparts, and their corresponding dividend yields are more attractive. Growth stocks, represented by the internet, technology, and pharmaceuticals, have also fallen back to quite attractive levels. Many constituent stocks in the Hang Seng Tech Index have a pullback/retracement of over 80%, and the cheap valuations can well meet the stock selection criteria of our undervalued value investing strategy.\"</p><p>Specifically regarding internet companies listed on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange, Qiu Dongrong further analyzed: \"First, these companies' businesses are deeply embedded in the Chinese economy, and their core demands are constantly growing, such as entertainment, consumption, and social networking. At the same time, these companies' monetization and realization capabilities are still continuously improving. Second, regulatory policies have constrained excessive industry expansion, restricted these companies' capital expenditures, especially cross-sector and cross-industry capital expenditures, while also forcing relevant companies to further focus on their core businesses, continuously improve their core competitiveness, and build solid business barriers, so as to continuously improve their profitability and revenue generation capabilities.\" Third, due to declining valuations, leading companies have shifted from expansion under high valuations to contraction under low valuations, shifting from large capital expenditures and investment cash outflows to positive operating cash flow, which is expected to significantly improve their return on investment.</p><p>Orchid Science and Technology Innovation drops out of the top ten</p><p>Besides this fund, other funds have also made significant portfolio adjustments. For example, in terms of Zhonggeng Small Cap Value, Lanhua Science and Technology Innovation, the largest holding at the end of last year, was no longer in the top ten list at the end of the first quarter. In addition,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/603518\">Jinhong Group</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/600742\">FAW Faway</a>They all dropped out of the top ten, while Luxi Chemical newly entered the top ten.<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/600501\">Space Morning Light</a>And Changshu Bank.</p><p>In the Zhonggeng Value Flexible Allocation Hybrid Fund, Lanhua Science and Technology Innovation, the largest holding at the end of last year, was also not in the top ten list as of the end of the first quarter of this year. In addition,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/603558\">Jiansheng Group</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/601225\">Shaanxi coal industry</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/002111\">Weihai Guangtai</a>They all dropped out of the top ten, while Luxi Chemical newly entered the top ten.<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/002034\">Wangneng Environment</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/603809\">Haoneng Shares</a>and<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/603600\">Yongyi Co., Ltd.</a>。</p><p>In the first-quarter report, Qiu Dongrong also discussed his views on the styles of A-share industries and individual stocks. For example, in the manufacturing sector, he said: \"There is still much room for discovering high-value companies in the broad manufacturing sector. We adhere to three standards: demand growth, supply contraction, and leading companies in niche industries, such as chemicals, light industry, non-ferrous metal processing, and machinery processing, which can help us discover truly undervalued small-cap value stocks.\"</p><p>Regarding large-cap value stocks such as finance and real estate, Qiu Dongrong believes the allocation logic is as follows: \"In the financial sector, we are optimistic about regional bank stocks that are related to the manufacturing industry chain, serve the real economy, and have unique competitive advantages. These types of banking businesses are relatively simple and have limited exposure to real estate risks. They are characterized by stable operations, low fundamental risks, extremely low valuations, and high growth potential.\" Real estate companies are concentrated in leading central state-owned enterprises with advantages such as high credit and low financing costs. These companies will be the beneficiaries of this round of risks. We believe that long-term demand for the real estate market remains, and it is also an integral part of stabilizing growth in the short to medium term. With adjustments to real estate policies and the support of financial resources, systemic risks will decrease. These companies are more resilient to risks, have a higher potential for external expansion, and, given their extremely low valuations, still have good return potential after the real estate market stabilizes in the future.</p><p>As for undervalued small and mid-cap energy and resource companies. Qiu Dongrong believes the main logic behind the allocation is: \"First, medium- and long-term demand remains stable and continuously growing; second, many domestic and foreign resource and energy companies have low long-term capital expenditure levels. From the perspective of market pricing and valuation, these companies are considered cyclical assets, with extremely low valuations, good cash flow, low capital expenditure, high dividend yield, and high expected return corresponding to the current price.\" Third, due to China's abundant coal resources and government regulation, the unit calorific value of coal still has a significant advantage compared to overseas oil and gas. Against this backdrop, domestic prices for relevant downstream industries in China are relatively safe, their global competitiveness and cost advantages at the operational level have been enhanced, and the excess profits in the corresponding segments are sustainable. Therefore, we are increasing our allocation to companies with greater advantages in energy utilization, such as electrolytic aluminum and coal chemicals.</p><p>In addition, regarding other small and mid-cap value stocks and growth stocks. Qiu Dongrong mainly mentioned two directions: \"First, some small-cap value stocks in traditionally undervalued industries such as utilities and environmental protection. These companies have extremely low valuations, long risk release periods, and very high cost-effectiveness. Second, some small and medium-cap growth stocks in growth-oriented industries such as computers, media, electronics, auto parts, and high-end manufacturing have undergone significant adjustments, with their valuations falling to lower levels than historical valuations. Moreover, their fundamentals are in line with future industry trends such as informatization, intelligentization, and self-reliance, and they have huge future growth potential.\"</p><p></body></html></p>","source":"sina_symbol","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Bullish on undervalued Hong Kong stocks! Qiu Dongrong maintained a high position in the first quarter.</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nBullish on undervalued Hong Kong stocks! Qiu Dongrong maintained a high position in the first quarter.\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">媒体滚动</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2022-04-18 08:03</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><html><head></head><body>Bullish on undervalued Hong Kong stocks! Qiu Dongrong maintained a high position in the first quarter, buying Hong Kong stocks such as Meituan-W.</p><p>As fund first-quarter reports continue to be released, the first-quarter holdings of the four products managed by Qiu Dongrong have also been released.</p><p>Reporters noted that in the first quarter, Qiu Dongrong continued to maintain a high position and made some portfolio adjustments, such as Zhonggeng Value Leading Hybrid Fund making a large purchase of Hong Kong stocks such as Meituan-W; In terms of the small-cap value of Zhonggeng,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/600123\">Orchid Science and Technology Innovation</a>It is no longer among the top ten holdings.</p><p>Large-scale buying of Hong Kong stocks such as Meituan-W</p><p>According to the first-quarter reports of the four products managed by Qiu Dongrong, the four funds still maintained high positions. Among them, the stock positions of Zhonggeng Value Leading Hybrid Fund, Zhonggeng Small Cap Value Stock Fund, and Zhonggeng Value Quality One-Year Holding Period Hybrid Fund accounted for 93.34%, 92.59%, and 93.04% of the fund's total assets, respectively, while the stock positions of Zhonggeng Value Flexible Allocation Hybrid Fund accounted for 89.13% of the fund's total assets.</p><p>In terms of its top ten holdings, the top ten holdings of Zhonggeng Value Leading Hybrid Fund are Meituan-W,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/01378\">China Hongqiao</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/00883\">China National Offshore Oil</a>Kuaishou-W<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/000830\">Luxi Chemical</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/601128\">Changshu Bank</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/00688\">China's overseas development</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/603323\">Jiangsu Rural Bank</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/600383\">Gemdale Group</a>and<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/603368\">Liuyao Co., Ltd</a>。</p><p>As can be seen, half of the stocks are Hong Kong stocks. The biggest change is that Meituan-W has become the largest holding, and it did not hold any shares at the end of last year, which is a large-scale purchase in the first quarter of this year. In addition, Kuaishou-W held 1.2883 million shares as of the end of last year and 9.355 million shares at the end of the first quarter of this year, which is also a significant increase in its holdings.</p><p>Zhonggeng Value Quality One-Year Holding Period Hybrid Fund also holds significant positions in the Hong Kong stock market. Its top ten holdings are Meituan-W, China National Offshore Oil Corporation (CNOOC), Luxi Chemical, China Hongqiao, Changshu Bank, China Overseas Land & Investment, Kuaishou-W, and Jiangsu Rural Commercial Bank.<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/601677\">Mingtai Aluminum</a>Heliu Pharmaceutical Co., Overall, the holdings are highly similar to those of Zhonggeng Value Leading Hybrid Fund.</p><p>Meituan-W also entered the top ten and became the largest holding, while Kuaishou-W increased its holdings from 1.9354 million shares at the end of last year to 5.0404 million shares.</p><p>In his first-quarter report, Qiu Dongrong stated, \"After continuous adjustments, Hong Kong stock valuations are either low or completely cleared, and the overall valuation level of Hong Kong stocks is at an absolutely low level. Value stocks in Hong Kong are cheaper than their corresponding A-share counterparts, and their corresponding dividend yields are more attractive. Growth stocks, represented by the internet, technology, and pharmaceuticals, have also fallen back to quite attractive levels. Many constituent stocks in the Hang Seng Tech Index have a pullback/retracement of over 80%, and the cheap valuations can well meet the stock selection criteria of our undervalued value investing strategy.\"</p><p>Specifically regarding internet companies listed on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange, Qiu Dongrong further analyzed: \"First, these companies' businesses are deeply embedded in the Chinese economy, and their core demands are constantly growing, such as entertainment, consumption, and social networking. At the same time, these companies' monetization and realization capabilities are still continuously improving. Second, regulatory policies have constrained excessive industry expansion, restricted these companies' capital expenditures, especially cross-sector and cross-industry capital expenditures, while also forcing relevant companies to further focus on their core businesses, continuously improve their core competitiveness, and build solid business barriers, so as to continuously improve their profitability and revenue generation capabilities.\" Third, due to declining valuations, leading companies have shifted from expansion under high valuations to contraction under low valuations, shifting from large capital expenditures and investment cash outflows to positive operating cash flow, which is expected to significantly improve their return on investment.</p><p>Orchid Science and Technology Innovation drops out of the top ten</p><p>Besides this fund, other funds have also made significant portfolio adjustments. For example, in terms of Zhonggeng Small Cap Value, Lanhua Science and Technology Innovation, the largest holding at the end of last year, was no longer in the top ten list at the end of the first quarter. In addition,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/603518\">Jinhong Group</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/600742\">FAW Faway</a>They all dropped out of the top ten, while Luxi Chemical newly entered the top ten.<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/600501\">Space Morning Light</a>And Changshu Bank.</p><p>In the Zhonggeng Value Flexible Allocation Hybrid Fund, Lanhua Science and Technology Innovation, the largest holding at the end of last year, was also not in the top ten list as of the end of the first quarter of this year. In addition,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/603558\">Jiansheng Group</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/601225\">Shaanxi coal industry</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/002111\">Weihai Guangtai</a>They all dropped out of the top ten, while Luxi Chemical newly entered the top ten.<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/002034\">Wangneng Environment</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/603809\">Haoneng Shares</a>and<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/603600\">Yongyi Co., Ltd.</a>。</p><p>In the first-quarter report, Qiu Dongrong also discussed his views on the styles of A-share industries and individual stocks. For example, in the manufacturing sector, he said: \"There is still much room for discovering high-value companies in the broad manufacturing sector. We adhere to three standards: demand growth, supply contraction, and leading companies in niche industries, such as chemicals, light industry, non-ferrous metal processing, and machinery processing, which can help us discover truly undervalued small-cap value stocks.\"</p><p>Regarding large-cap value stocks such as finance and real estate, Qiu Dongrong believes the allocation logic is as follows: \"In the financial sector, we are optimistic about regional bank stocks that are related to the manufacturing industry chain, serve the real economy, and have unique competitive advantages. These types of banking businesses are relatively simple and have limited exposure to real estate risks. They are characterized by stable operations, low fundamental risks, extremely low valuations, and high growth potential.\" Real estate companies are concentrated in leading central state-owned enterprises with advantages such as high credit and low financing costs. These companies will be the beneficiaries of this round of risks. We believe that long-term demand for the real estate market remains, and it is also an integral part of stabilizing growth in the short to medium term. With adjustments to real estate policies and the support of financial resources, systemic risks will decrease. These companies are more resilient to risks, have a higher potential for external expansion, and, given their extremely low valuations, still have good return potential after the real estate market stabilizes in the future.</p><p>As for undervalued small and mid-cap energy and resource companies. Qiu Dongrong believes the main logic behind the allocation is: \"First, medium- and long-term demand remains stable and continuously growing; second, many domestic and foreign resource and energy companies have low long-term capital expenditure levels. From the perspective of market pricing and valuation, these companies are considered cyclical assets, with extremely low valuations, good cash flow, low capital expenditure, high dividend yield, and high expected return corresponding to the current price.\" Third, due to China's abundant coal resources and government regulation, the unit calorific value of coal still has a significant advantage compared to overseas oil and gas. Against this backdrop, domestic prices for relevant downstream industries in China are relatively safe, their global competitiveness and cost advantages at the operational level have been enhanced, and the excess profits in the corresponding segments are sustainable. Therefore, we are increasing our allocation to companies with greater advantages in energy utilization, such as electrolytic aluminum and coal chemicals.</p><p>In addition, regarding other small and mid-cap value stocks and growth stocks. Qiu Dongrong mainly mentioned two directions: \"First, some small-cap value stocks in traditionally undervalued industries such as utilities and environmental protection. These companies have extremely low valuations, long risk release periods, and very high cost-effectiveness. Second, some small and medium-cap growth stocks in growth-oriented industries such as computers, media, electronics, auto parts, and high-end manufacturing have undergone significant adjustments, with their valuations falling to lower levels than historical valuations. Moreover, their fundamentals are in line with future industry trends such as informatization, intelligentization, and self-reliance, and they have huge future growth potential.\"</p><p></body></html></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> source：<a href=\"https://cj.sina.cn/article/normal_detail?url=https://finance.sina.com.cn/jjxw/2022-04-15/doc-imcwipii4449507.shtml\">媒体滚动</a></p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8efc57f52a2a39a79594580845cac4dc","relate_stocks":{"BK1591":"就地过年概念","BK1608":"元宇宙概念","BK1142":"互联网与直销零售","QNETCN":"纳斯达克中美互联网老虎指数","BK1575":"同股不同权","HSI":"恒生指数","BK1095":"互动媒体与服务","BK1589":"北水核心资产","BK1590":"短视频概念股","HSTECH":"恒生科技指数","BK1604":"节假日概念","03690":"美团-W","BK1583":"高瓴概念","01024":"快手-W","BK1521":"挪威政府全球养老基金持仓"},"source_url":"https://cj.sina.cn/article/normal_detail?url=https://finance.sina.com.cn/jjxw/2022-04-15/doc-imcwipii4449507.shtml","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2227075426","content_text":"看好港股低估值！丘栋荣一季度维持高仓位运作，买入美团－W等港股基金一季报持续披露，丘栋荣管理的4只产品的一季度持仓也纷纷出炉。记者注意到，在一季度，丘栋荣继续维持高仓位运作，并且进行了一些调仓换股，比如中庚价值领航混合大举买入美团－W等港股；在中庚小盘价值上，兰花科创已经不在前十大重仓股中。大举买入美团－W等港股从丘栋荣管理的4只产品的一季报来看，4只基金依然维持了高仓位运作，其中中庚价值领航混合、中庚小盘价值股票、中庚价值品质一年持有期混合的股票仓位，占基金总资产的比例分别为93.34%、92.59%和93.04%，中庚价值灵动灵活配置混合的股票仓位占基金总资产的比例为89.13%。在前十大重仓股方面，中庚价值领航混合的前十大重仓股分别为美团－W、中国宏桥、中国海洋石油、快手－W、鲁西化工、常熟银行、中国海外发展、苏农银行、金地集团和柳药股份。可以看到，其中有一半的个股都是港股，最大的变化就是美团－W成为了第一大重仓股，并且在去年底并未持股，属于今年一季度大举买入。另外，快手－W截至去年底的持股数是128.83万股，今年一季度末的持股数为935.5万股，也是大举加仓。同样重仓港股市场的还有中庚价值品质一年持有期混合，前十大重仓股分别为美团－W、中国海洋石油、鲁西化工、中国宏桥、常熟银行、中国海外发展、快手－W、苏农银行、明泰铝业和柳药股份。整体来看，与中庚价值领航混合的持仓相似度很高。其中美团－W同样也是新进到前十大，而且成为第一大重仓股，快手－W则是从去年底的193.54万股加仓到了504.04万股。丘栋荣在一季报中表示：“港股的估值经过持续的调整后，价格较低或价格出清彻底，港股整体的估值水平处于绝对低位。港股的价值股相比对应的在A股更便宜，同时对应的分红收益率吸引力更强。而以互联网、科技、医药为代表的成长股也回落至相当有吸引力的水平，恒生科技指数中多只成分股更是回撤80%以上，而便宜的估值，能很好的符合我们低估值价值投资策略的选股标准。”具体到港股中的互联网公司，丘栋荣进一步分析道：“一是，这些公司的业务深深嵌入中国经济中，面对的核心需求是不断增长的，比如娱乐、消费、社交等，同时这些公司货币化能力和变现能力还在持续提高；二是，监管政策约束了行业过度的扩张，限制了这些公司的资本开支，尤其是跨领域、跨行业的资本开支，同时也倒逼相关公司进一步专注于自己的核心业务，不断提升核心竞争力，打造坚实业务壁垒，使得盈利能力和造血能力持续提升；三是，由于估值回落，从高估值背景下的扩张到低估值背景下的收缩，龙头公司从大额的资本开支和投资性现金流出，转换到正向的经营性的现金流，投资回报率反而有望显著提升。”兰花科创退出前十大除了该基金，在其它基金方面，同样也有明显的调仓换股动作，比如在中庚小盘价值上，去年底的第一大重仓股兰花科创，在一季度末已经不在前十大名单中了。另外，锦泓集团、一汽富维也都退出前十大，新进前十大的是鲁西化工、航天晨光和常熟银行。在中庚价值灵动灵活配置混合上，去年底的第一大重仓股兰花科创，截至今年一季度末同样不在前十大名单中。另外，健盛集团、陕西煤业、威海广泰也都退出前十大，新进前十大的是鲁西化工、旺能环境、豪能股份和永艺股份。在一季报中，丘栋荣也谈及了关于对A股行业和个股风格的看法。比如在制造业方面，他表示：“广义制造业中挖掘高性价比公司仍大有可为。我们坚持三条标准，即需求增长、供给收缩、细分行业龙头，比如化工、轻工、有色金属加工、机械加工等，可以挖掘出真正的低估值小盘价值股。”在大盘价值股中的金融、地产等方面，丘栋荣认为配置逻辑在于：“金融板块中，看好与制造业产业链相关、服务于实体经济、有独特竞争优势的区域性银行股，这类银行业务相对简单且对地产风险暴露有限，呈现出经营稳健、基本面风险较小、估值极低、成长性较高的特征。地产类公司则集中于具有高信用、低融资成本优势的央企龙头公司，这些公司将是本轮风险后的受益者。我们认为房地产长期需求仍在，中短期也是稳增长的组成部分，随着地产政策调整和金融资源支持，系统性风险将下降，该类公司抗风险能力更强，外延扩张可能性高，并且估值极低情况下，未来房地产市场平稳后，仍有较好的回报潜力。”而对于低估值的中小盘能源、资源类公司。丘栋荣认为配置的逻辑主要在于：“一是，中长期需求仍是稳定且持续增长的；二是，国内外诸多资源和能源类公司长期资本开支水平不高。从市场定价和估值来看，这类公司视为周期类资产，估值极低、现金流好、资本开支少、分红收益率较高、现价对应的预期回报率高；三是，由于中国富煤资源禀赋及政府调控，煤炭单位热值相比海外油、气仍有显著优势。在这样的背景下，国内相关下游行业企业的国内价格较为安全，经营层面上的全球竞争力和成本优势得到提升，相应环节的超额利润具有持续性。因此，我们增加电解铝、煤化工等在能源利用上更有优势的公司的配置。”此外，在其它中小盘价值股和成长股方面。丘栋荣主要提及两个方向，“一是，公用事业、环保等传统低估值行业中的部分小盘价值股，这类公司估值极低、风险释放时间较长，性价比非常高；二是，计算机、传媒、电子、汽车零部件、高端制造等偏成长行业的部分中小盘成长股，调整幅度很大，其估值降至历史估值的较低位置，且其基本面符合未来信息化、智能化、自主化等的产业趋势，未来增长潜力巨大。”","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"90022":0,"HSTECH":0.9,"HSI":0,"QNETCN":0,"03690":0,"01024":0}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1677,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9081507834,"gmtCreate":1650249725549,"gmtModify":1676534679042,"author":{"id":"3581647091503821","authorId":"3581647091503821","name":"谷岳HZ","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3581647091503821","idStr":"3581647091503821"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"nice","listText":"nice","text":"nice","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9081507834","repostId":"1194417947","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1194417947","kind":"news","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"为用户提供金融资讯、行情、数据，旨在帮助投资者理解世界，做投资决策。","home_visible":1,"media_name":"老虎资讯综合","id":"102","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba"},"pubTimestamp":1650237316,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1194417947?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2022-04-18 07:15","market":"sh","language":"zh","title":"This Week's Preview | Tesla and Netflix Earnings Reports Arrive! Powell will make a speech","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1194417947","media":"老虎资讯综合","summary":"本周（4.18-4.23）重磅财经事件：经济数据方面：中国GDP年率、美国至4月15日当周EIA原油库存及美国至4月16日当周初请失业金人数等重磅数据将集中来袭。4月20日上午（周三）中国央行将公布4","content":"<p><html><head></head><body><b>Major financial events this week (April 18-23):</b></p><p><b>In terms of economic data:</b>Key data points such as China's annualized GDP growth rate, US EIA crude oil inventories for the week ending April 15, and US initial jobless claims for the week ending April 16 will be released. On the morning of Wednesday, April 20, the People's Bank of China will release the April 1-year loan prime rate and the 5-year loan prime rate.<b>Regarding financial reports:</b>Earnings season continues in full swing.<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BAC\">Bank of America</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BK\">Bank of New York Mellon</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/HAL\">Halliburton</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/JNJ\">Johnson and Johnson</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/PG\">Procter and Gamble</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NFLX\">Netflix</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/ASML\">Asma</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TSLA\">Tesla</a>,AT&T,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AAL\">American Airlines</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/SNAP\">Snap Inc</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/ISRG\">Intuitive Surgery Company</a>, Verizon,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AXP\">American Express</a>They announced their results one after another.<b>Regarding financial events:</b>The State Council Information Office will hold a press conference on the operation of the national economy; In addition, Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell, Eagle Bullard, Chicago Fed President Evans (2023 FOMC voting member), and San Francisco Fed President Daley (2024 FOMC voting member) will deliver speeches.<b>Regarding new shares:</b>Zhihu, the country's largest online Q&A community, will go public on Friday.<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9a2d5fdc01fc731126224cf5658d22cc\" tg-width=\"1800\" tg-height=\"1430\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/><b>Keywords for Monday, April 18: Hong Kong stocks closed; China's annual GDP rate; Press conference held by the State Council Information Office on the operation of the national economy Bank of America and Bank of New York Mellon earnings reports</b><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1680a6399764555318529b3352aeb30b\" tg-width=\"1370\" tg-height=\"697\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2a00f9517560ed59eacc83999071f9ca\" tg-width=\"1232\" tg-height=\"565\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><b>Monday,</b>Hong Kong stocks were closed for the Easter holiday, and both A-share Stock Connect (northbound) and Hong Kong Stock Connect (southbound) were also closed on the same day.</p><p><b>Economic data</b>China's GDP annualized rate (%) and the US NAHB housing market index will be released.</p><p><b>In terms of events</b>The State Council Information Office will hold a press conference on the operation of the national economy.</p><p><b>Regarding financial reports</b>，<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BAC\">Bank of America</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BK\">Bank of New York Mellon</a>The results will be released gradually.</p><p><b>Keywords for Tuesday, April 19th: Total number of new home starts in the United States annualized; Halliburton, Johnson & Johnson, Lockheed Martin, Shandong Gold financial reports</b><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/73d5d5a12928803054746a6c5e479c2b\" tg-width=\"1362\" tg-height=\"301\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/433929ecb5137c2fd6d5bf4eb4cf8901\" tg-width=\"1400\" tg-height=\"268\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/><b>Tuesday</b>，<b>Economic data</b>Data on the total number of building permits in the United States and the annualized number of new home starts in the United States will be released soon.</p><p><b>Regarding financial reports</b>，<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/HAL.US\">Halliburton</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/JNJ\">Johnson and Johnson</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/LMT\">Lockheed Martin</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/01787\">Shandong Gold</a>Waiting for the concentrated earnings reports to arrive.</p><p><b>Keywords for Wednesday, April 20: US API crude oil inventories for the week; Procter & Gamble, Netflix, ASML, and China Telecom financial reports</b><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a487abdec82f2bcb4c1016dde27edaab\" tg-width=\"938\" tg-height=\"755\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d80349cae5f26d4d846bc65b0d8ab7a8\" tg-width=\"1000\" tg-height=\"333\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/><b>Wednesday</b>，<b>Economic data</b>The US API crude oil inventories for the week and the US EIA Strategic Petroleum Reserve inventories for the week will be released.</p><p><b>Regarding the incident,</b>Evans, a 2023 FOMC voting member and Chicago Fed President, spoke at the Economic Club of New York; In 2024, FOMC voting member and San Francisco Fed President Daly delivered a speech on the economic outlook.</p><p>On Wednesday (April 20) at 9:15 a.m., the People's Bank of China will announce the April 1-year loan prime rate and the 5-year loan prime rate. On April 15, the day of the reserve requirement ratio cut, the central bank renewed the Medium-term Lending Facility (MLF) with a reduced volume, with the interest rate remaining the same as in the previous operation. Currently, the market's focus has shifted to the April LPR quote.</p><p><b>Regarding financial reports</b>，<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/PG\">Procter and Gamble</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NFLX\">Netflix</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/ASML\">Asma</a>, $ASM<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/601099\">Pacific Ocean</a>(00522)$、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/00728\">China Telecom</a>The financial report will be released later.</p><p><b>Keywords for Thursday, April 21: Federal Reserve's Beige Book on Economic Conditions, US EIA natural gas inventories for the week; Financial reports from Tesla, AT&T, Blackstone, American Airlines, and China Unicom; Zhihu-W lottery results</b><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ed5e76bae42d5c1b012643b2e46be073\" tg-width=\"1366\" tg-height=\"464\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/33da4f5f0a2047912d74ccd4a2b82a67\" tg-width=\"1400\" tg-height=\"246\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/><b>Thursday</b>，<b>Economic data</b>The Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index, the Conference Board Leading Indicator Monthly Rate, and the U.S. EIA natural gas inventories for the week will be released.</p><p><b>In terms of events</b>The Federal Reserve will release its Beige Book on the state of the economy; NYMEX New York crude oil futures for May delivery were affected by the month-to-month rollover. The last trading on the exchange was completed at 2:30 AM on April 21, and the last trading on the electronic trading was completed at 5:00 AM. Please pay attention to the exchange's expiration month-to-month announcements to control risks. In addition, the expiration time of US crude oil contracts on some trading platforms is usually one day earlier than the official expiration time of NYMEX, so please pay close attention.</p><p><b>Regarding financial reports,</b><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TSLA\">Tesla</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/T\">AT&T</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BX\">Blackstone</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AAL\">American Airlines</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/00762\">China Unicom</a>Major financial reports such as these will be released on the same day.</p><p><b>Regarding new stocks,</b>The largest online quiz community in the country<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/02390\">Zhihu-W</a>The lottery results will be announced.</p><p><b>Keywords for Friday, April 22nd: Snap, American Express, Intuitive Surgery earnings report; United States April<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MRKT\">Markit</a>Preliminary manufacturing PMI and preliminary US April Markit services PMI</b><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5156aa725f088278bc17d3a1f6060cdd\" tg-width=\"937\" tg-height=\"604\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/92c69270e38b326e0da91b2f07d92566\" tg-width=\"986\" tg-height=\"223\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><b>Regarding economic data,</b>The preliminary readings of the US April Markit Manufacturing PMI and the US April Markit Services PMI will be released on the same day.</p><p><b>In terms of events</b>Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell and European Central Bank President Christine Lagarde participated in a panel discussion on the global economy hosted by the IMF.</p><p><b>Regarding financial reports</b>，<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/SNAP\">Snap Inc</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/ISRG\">Intuitive Surgery Company</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/VZ\">Verizon</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AXP\">American Express</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/SLB\">Schlumberger</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/02333\">Great Wall Motors</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/03968\">China Merchants Bank</a>Major financial reports are coming soon.</p><p><b>Regarding new stocks,</b><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/02390\">Zhihu-W</a>It will be listed on Friday.</p><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/02390\">Zhihu-W</a>The company plans to issue 26 million shares at an issue price not exceeding HK$51.8 per share. The final offer price has been set at HK$32.06 per share, with 100 shares per lot. The company is expected to list on April 22.<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/ZH\">Zhihu</a>It is a leading online content community that went public on the NYSE in March 2021. According to data from Frost & Sullivan, based on average monthly active users and revenue on mobile devices in 2019, 2020 and 2021, Zhihu is one of the top five comprehensive online content communities in China and the largest online Q&A community in the country.</body></html></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>This Week's Preview | Tesla and Netflix Earnings Reports Arrive! Powell will make a speech</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nThis Week's Preview | Tesla and Netflix Earnings Reports Arrive! Powell will make a speech\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/102\">\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">老虎资讯综合 </p>\n<p class=\"h-time smaller\">2022-04-18 07:15</p>\n</div>\n</a>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><html><head></head><body><b>Major financial events this week (April 18-23):</b></p><p><b>In terms of economic data:</b>Key data points such as China's annualized GDP growth rate, US EIA crude oil inventories for the week ending April 15, and US initial jobless claims for the week ending April 16 will be released. On the morning of Wednesday, April 20, the People's Bank of China will release the April 1-year loan prime rate and the 5-year loan prime rate.<b>Regarding financial reports:</b>Earnings season continues in full swing.<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BAC\">Bank of America</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BK\">Bank of New York Mellon</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/HAL\">Halliburton</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/JNJ\">Johnson and Johnson</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/PG\">Procter and Gamble</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NFLX\">Netflix</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/ASML\">Asma</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TSLA\">Tesla</a>,AT&T,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AAL\">American Airlines</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/SNAP\">Snap Inc</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/ISRG\">Intuitive Surgery Company</a>, Verizon,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AXP\">American Express</a>They announced their results one after another.<b>Regarding financial events:</b>The State Council Information Office will hold a press conference on the operation of the national economy; In addition, Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell, Eagle Bullard, Chicago Fed President Evans (2023 FOMC voting member), and San Francisco Fed President Daley (2024 FOMC voting member) will deliver speeches.<b>Regarding new shares:</b>Zhihu, the country's largest online Q&A community, will go public on Friday.<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9a2d5fdc01fc731126224cf5658d22cc\" tg-width=\"1800\" tg-height=\"1430\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/><b>Keywords for Monday, April 18: Hong Kong stocks closed; China's annual GDP rate; Press conference held by the State Council Information Office on the operation of the national economy Bank of America and Bank of New York Mellon earnings reports</b><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1680a6399764555318529b3352aeb30b\" tg-width=\"1370\" tg-height=\"697\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2a00f9517560ed59eacc83999071f9ca\" tg-width=\"1232\" tg-height=\"565\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><b>Monday,</b>Hong Kong stocks were closed for the Easter holiday, and both A-share Stock Connect (northbound) and Hong Kong Stock Connect (southbound) were also closed on the same day.</p><p><b>Economic data</b>China's GDP annualized rate (%) and the US NAHB housing market index will be released.</p><p><b>In terms of events</b>The State Council Information Office will hold a press conference on the operation of the national economy.</p><p><b>Regarding financial reports</b>，<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BAC\">Bank of America</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BK\">Bank of New York Mellon</a>The results will be released gradually.</p><p><b>Keywords for Tuesday, April 19th: Total number of new home starts in the United States annualized; Halliburton, Johnson & Johnson, Lockheed Martin, Shandong Gold financial reports</b><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/73d5d5a12928803054746a6c5e479c2b\" tg-width=\"1362\" tg-height=\"301\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/433929ecb5137c2fd6d5bf4eb4cf8901\" tg-width=\"1400\" tg-height=\"268\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/><b>Tuesday</b>，<b>Economic data</b>Data on the total number of building permits in the United States and the annualized number of new home starts in the United States will be released soon.</p><p><b>Regarding financial reports</b>，<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/HAL.US\">Halliburton</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/JNJ\">Johnson and Johnson</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/LMT\">Lockheed Martin</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/01787\">Shandong Gold</a>Waiting for the concentrated earnings reports to arrive.</p><p><b>Keywords for Wednesday, April 20: US API crude oil inventories for the week; Procter & Gamble, Netflix, ASML, and China Telecom financial reports</b><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a487abdec82f2bcb4c1016dde27edaab\" tg-width=\"938\" tg-height=\"755\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d80349cae5f26d4d846bc65b0d8ab7a8\" tg-width=\"1000\" tg-height=\"333\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/><b>Wednesday</b>，<b>Economic data</b>The US API crude oil inventories for the week and the US EIA Strategic Petroleum Reserve inventories for the week will be released.</p><p><b>Regarding the incident,</b>Evans, a 2023 FOMC voting member and Chicago Fed President, spoke at the Economic Club of New York; In 2024, FOMC voting member and San Francisco Fed President Daly delivered a speech on the economic outlook.</p><p>On Wednesday (April 20) at 9:15 a.m., the People's Bank of China will announce the April 1-year loan prime rate and the 5-year loan prime rate. On April 15, the day of the reserve requirement ratio cut, the central bank renewed the Medium-term Lending Facility (MLF) with a reduced volume, with the interest rate remaining the same as in the previous operation. Currently, the market's focus has shifted to the April LPR quote.</p><p><b>Regarding financial reports</b>，<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/PG\">Procter and Gamble</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NFLX\">Netflix</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/ASML\">Asma</a>, $ASM<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/601099\">Pacific Ocean</a>(00522)$、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/00728\">China Telecom</a>The financial report will be released later.</p><p><b>Keywords for Thursday, April 21: Federal Reserve's Beige Book on Economic Conditions, US EIA natural gas inventories for the week; Financial reports from Tesla, AT&T, Blackstone, American Airlines, and China Unicom; Zhihu-W lottery results</b><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ed5e76bae42d5c1b012643b2e46be073\" tg-width=\"1366\" tg-height=\"464\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/33da4f5f0a2047912d74ccd4a2b82a67\" tg-width=\"1400\" tg-height=\"246\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/><b>Thursday</b>，<b>Economic data</b>The Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index, the Conference Board Leading Indicator Monthly Rate, and the U.S. EIA natural gas inventories for the week will be released.</p><p><b>In terms of events</b>The Federal Reserve will release its Beige Book on the state of the economy; NYMEX New York crude oil futures for May delivery were affected by the month-to-month rollover. The last trading on the exchange was completed at 2:30 AM on April 21, and the last trading on the electronic trading was completed at 5:00 AM. Please pay attention to the exchange's expiration month-to-month announcements to control risks. In addition, the expiration time of US crude oil contracts on some trading platforms is usually one day earlier than the official expiration time of NYMEX, so please pay close attention.</p><p><b>Regarding financial reports,</b><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TSLA\">Tesla</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/T\">AT&T</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BX\">Blackstone</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AAL\">American Airlines</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/00762\">China Unicom</a>Major financial reports such as these will be released on the same day.</p><p><b>Regarding new stocks,</b>The largest online quiz community in the country<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/02390\">Zhihu-W</a>The lottery results will be announced.</p><p><b>Keywords for Friday, April 22nd: Snap, American Express, Intuitive Surgery earnings report; United States April<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MRKT\">Markit</a>Preliminary manufacturing PMI and preliminary US April Markit services PMI</b><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5156aa725f088278bc17d3a1f6060cdd\" tg-width=\"937\" tg-height=\"604\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/92c69270e38b326e0da91b2f07d92566\" tg-width=\"986\" tg-height=\"223\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><b>Regarding economic data,</b>The preliminary readings of the US April Markit Manufacturing PMI and the US April Markit Services PMI will be released on the same day.</p><p><b>In terms of events</b>Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell and European Central Bank President Christine Lagarde participated in a panel discussion on the global economy hosted by the IMF.</p><p><b>Regarding financial reports</b>，<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/SNAP\">Snap Inc</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/ISRG\">Intuitive Surgery Company</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/VZ\">Verizon</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AXP\">American Express</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/SLB\">Schlumberger</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/02333\">Great Wall Motors</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/03968\">China Merchants Bank</a>Major financial reports are coming soon.</p><p><b>Regarding new stocks,</b><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/02390\">Zhihu-W</a>It will be listed on Friday.</p><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/02390\">Zhihu-W</a>The company plans to issue 26 million shares at an issue price not exceeding HK$51.8 per share. The final offer price has been set at HK$32.06 per share, with 100 shares per lot. The company is expected to list on April 22.<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/ZH\">Zhihu</a>It is a leading online content community that went public on the NYSE in March 2021. According to data from Frost & Sullivan, based on average monthly active users and revenue on mobile devices in 2019, 2020 and 2021, Zhihu is one of the top five comprehensive online content communities in China and the largest online Q&A community in the country.</body></html></p>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d256e82db1d71c864259845ce1d069bf","relate_stocks":{"SDS":"两倍做空标普500 ETF-ProShares","BK4574":"无人驾驶","SH":"做空标普500-Proshares","TQQQ":"纳指三倍做多ETF","UDOW":"三倍做多道指30ETF-ProShares","DJX":"1/100道琼斯","BK4524":"宅经济概念","DOG":"道指ETF-ProShares做空","TSLA":"特斯拉","SPXU":"三倍做空标普500ETF-ProShares","BK4534":"瑞士信贷持仓","BK4555":"新能源车",".DJI":"道琼斯","BK4533":"AQR资本管理(全球第二大对冲基金)",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite","SPY":"标普500ETF",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index","NFLX":"奈飞","SDOW":"三倍做空道指30ETF-ProShares","SSO":"2倍做多标普500ETF-ProShares"},"source_url":"","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1194417947","content_text":"本周（4.18-4.23）重磅财经事件：经济数据方面：中国GDP年率、美国至4月15日当周EIA原油库存及美国至4月16日当周初请失业金人数等重磅数据将集中来袭。4月20日上午（周三）中国央行将公布4月1年期贷款市场报价利率和5年期贷款市场报价利率。财报方面：财报季火热继续，美国银行、纽约梅隆银行、哈里伯顿、强生、宝洁、奈飞、阿斯麦、特斯拉、AT&T、美国航空、Snap Inc、直觉外科公司、Verizon、美国运通等相继公布业绩。财经事件方面：国新办将就国民经济运行情况举行发布会；此外，美联储主席鲍威尔、鹰王布拉德、2023年FOMC票委芝加哥联储主席埃文斯、2024年FOMC票委旧金山联储主席戴利将发表讲话。新股方面：全国最大的在线问答社区知乎将于周五上市。4月18日 周一关键词：港股休市；中国GDP年率；国新办国民经济运行情况发布会；美国银行、纽约梅隆银行财报周一，港股因复活节假期休市，A股通（北向）、港股通（南向）当日亦均休市。经济数据方面，中国GDP年率(%)、美国NAHB房产市场指数将公布。事件方面，国新办将就国民经济运行情况举行发布会。财报方面，美国银行、纽约梅隆银行陆续将公布业绩。4月19日 周二关键词：美国新屋开工总数年化；哈里伯顿、强生、洛克希德马丁、山东黄金财报周二，经济数据方面，美国营建许可总数、美国新屋开工总数年化等数据将来袭。财报方面，哈里伯顿、强生、洛克希德马丁、山东黄金等财报集中来袭。4月20日 周三关键词：美国当周API原油库存；宝洁、奈飞、阿斯麦、中国电信财报周三，经济数据方面，美国当周API原油库存、美国当周EIA战略石油储备库存等将公布。事件方面，2023年FOMC票委、芝加哥联储主席埃文斯在纽约经济俱乐部发表讲话；2024年FOMC票委、旧金山联储主席戴利就经济前景发表讲话。央行方面，周三（4月20日）上午9:15，中国央行将公布4月1年期贷款市场报价利率和5年期贷款市场报价利率。4月15日，即降准操作当日，央行缩量续作MLF，利率与前期操作持平，目前市场关注焦点转向4月LPR报价。财报方面，宝洁、奈飞、阿斯麦、$ASM太平洋(00522)$、中国电信等将公布财报。4月21日 周四关键词：美联储经济状况褐皮书、美国当周EIA天然气库存；特斯拉、AT&T、黑石、美国航空、中国联通财报；知乎-W中签结果周四，经济数据方面，美国费城联储制造业指数、美国谘商会领先指标月率、美国当周EIA天然气库存将公布。事件方面，美联储将公布经济状况褐皮书；NYMEX纽约原油5月期货受移仓换月影响，4月21日2:30完成场内最后交易，凌晨5:00完成电子盘最后交易，请留意交易场所到期换月公告控制风险。此外，部分交易平台美油合约到期时间通常较NYMEX官方提前一天，请多加留意。财报方面，特斯拉、AT&T、黑石、美国航空、中国联通等重磅财报将于当日集中公布。新股方面，全国最大的在线问答社区知乎-W将公布中签结果。4月22日 周五关键词：Snap、美国运通、直觉外科财报；美国4月Markit制造业PMI初值、美国4月Markit服务业PMI初值经济数据方面，美国4月Markit制造业PMI初值、美国4月Markit服务业PMI初值将于当日公布。事件方面，美联储主席鲍威尔和欧洲央行行长拉加德参与IMF举办的关于全球经济的小组讨论。财报方面，Snap 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href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/DIDI\">$滴滴(DIDI)$</a>q w q","listText":"<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/DIDI\">$滴滴(DIDI)$</a>q w q","text":"$滴滴(DIDI)$q w q","images":[{"img":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/1c3f15fee7c7602d639cca5db990df4a","width":"640","height":"800"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9089081825","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1008,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9089017992,"gmtCreate":1649931974125,"gmtModify":1676534609682,"author":{"id":"3581647091503821","authorId":"3581647091503821","name":"谷岳HZ","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3581647091503821","idStr":"3581647091503821"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"nice","listText":"nice","text":"nice","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9089017992","repostId":"2227646245","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"2227646245","kind":"highlight","pubTimestamp":1649900944,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/2227646245?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2022-04-14 09:49","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"Global Central Bank rate hike Wave: Is Adding 50 Basis Points at a Time the New Normal?","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2227646245","media":"华尔街见闻","summary":"继新西兰、加拿大先后加息50个基点，拉开发达市场大幅加息的序幕后，市场关注焦点在于，什么时候轮到美联储？","content":"<p><html><head></head><body>Since the beginning of this year, more than 30 emerging market central banks around the world have implemented a one-time rate hike of at least 50 basis points. For example, Pakistan raised interest rates by 250 basis points this month, followed closely by Sri Lanka's crisis-plagued interest rate increase of 700 basis points.</p><p><b>As the inflationary storm intensifies, the trend of a one-time rate hike of 50 basis points is emerging in developed country markets.</b></p><p>On Wednesday, New Zealand became the first developed country to implement a 50-basis-point rate hike, followed by Canada's addition. The market's current focus is on: when will it be the Federal Reserve's turn?</p><p><b>Reserve Bank of New Zealand: Largest rate hike in 22 years</b></p><p>On Wednesday, the Reserve Bank of New Zealand unexpectedly announced a 50 basis point increase in rate hike, raising the official cash rate (OCR) from 1% to 1.5%, the largest rate hike in 22 years.</p><p>In a previous Bloomberg survey of 20 economists, 15 expected the Reserve Bank of New Zealand to rate hike by only 25 basis points.</p><p>New Zealand’s inflation rate has soared to 5.9%, up from 1.4% a year ago, almost double the top of its 1-3% target range, and a 32-year high.</p><p>Not only did the rate hike reach 50 basis points this time, but the market also expects the possibility of another 50 basis points increase to over 50%.</p><p><b>Bank of Canada: rate hike by 50 basis points for the first time in the G7</b></p><p>Late Wednesday, the Bank of Canada also joined the ranks of the one-time rate hike of 50 basis points, raising its policy interest rate to 1%, and intends to begin shrinking balance sheet in two weeks.</p><p>The Bank of Canada was the first central bank in the G7 countries to significantly rate hike by 50 basis points in one go, and also the country's first 50 basis point rate hike since May 2000. It also marked the country's largest rate hike in 22 years.</p><p>A growing number of analysts believe that the Bank of Canada may announce another significant 50 basis point rate hike on June 1, as CPI inflation in February has been above the 1% to 3% control range for the 11th consecutive month.</p><p><b>Federal Reserve: Is a 50 basis point rise in rate hike imminent?</b></p><p><b>Although central banks in developed countries do not have any ironclad rules for adjusting benchmark interest rates, in recent decades, except in the event of special crises, the practice of central bank rate hike has been a small adjustment of 25 basis points.</b></p><p>However, in the current inflationary environment, this approach is clearly insufficient, forcing policymakers around the world to signal greater rate hike than usual.</p><p>Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell has stated that the Fed will rate hike by 50 basis points if necessary. This position was supported by several other Federal Reserve officials.</p><p>Wall Street Insights previously mentioned that, following the first 25-basis-point rate hike in March, including Chairman Powell, \"King of Hawks\" Bullard, Cleveland Fed President Mester, and New York Fed President...<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/WMB\">Williams</a>Several Fed officials, including Federal Reserve Governor Waller and recently San Francisco Fed President Mary Daly, have stated that they are willing to raise the rate hike to 50 basis points at the May FOMC meeting if necessary to control inflation.</p><p>The minutes of the March Federal Reserve meeting also reinforced this point: at the March meeting, several Fed officials believed that one or more 50 basis point rate hike might be necessary in the future if inflation and economic conditions required it.</p><p>Market speculation has also intensified that the Federal Reserve may rate hike 50 basis points at its next meeting, with futures prices indicating an 88% chance of the Fed rate hike 50 basis points at its next meeting.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/589f9beb480038b8ea394130dab86b0a\" tg-width=\"1271\" tg-height=\"615\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><b>Tuesday's release of the largest U.S. CPI increase in March since December 1981, covering a wider range of goods and services, further exacerbates this possibility.</b></p><p>The idea is that with prices so high right now, monetary authorities need to be bolder in curbing them, otherwise more action will have to be taken later if inflation becomes entrenched.</p><p>In summarizing its policy, the Reserve Bank of New Zealand stated that they are concerned that inflation expectations are becoming entrenched, and given the highly uncertain global economic environment, larger initiatives now also provide greater policy flexibility for the future.</p><p>The market currently expects the European Central Bank to take no action at this week's meeting, but policymakers facing record inflation will be closely watching the meeting for more clues about possible rate hike later this year.</p><p><b>What will happen to the market if there is a significant rate hike?</b></p><p>The obvious risk is that acting quickly could also shake markets and lead to a recession. Some worry that tight monetary policy cannot address rising inflation caused by supply shocks.</p><p>The UK's March CPI, released on Wednesday, rose 7.0% year-on-year, the highest in 30 years, and the Bank of England is under pressure to further rate hike. However, after the UK's GDP growth rate in February was only 0.1%, rising inflation will further raise concerns about the risk of the economy falling into stagflation.</p><p>This is undoubtedly an unstable period for the market. According to Bloomberg,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BAC\">Bank of America</a>A recent survey of fund managers found that their optimism about global growth is at an all-time low, while concerns about monetary policy mistakes are at an all-time high.</p><p></body></html></p>","source":"wallstreetcn_api","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Global Central Bank rate hike Wave: Is Adding 50 Basis Points at a Time the New Normal?</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nGlobal Central Bank rate hike Wave: Is Adding 50 Basis Points at a Time the New Normal?\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">华尔街见闻</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2022-04-14 09:49</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><html><head></head><body>Since the beginning of this year, more than 30 emerging market central banks around the world have implemented a one-time rate hike of at least 50 basis points. For example, Pakistan raised interest rates by 250 basis points this month, followed closely by Sri Lanka's crisis-plagued interest rate increase of 700 basis points.</p><p><b>As the inflationary storm intensifies, the trend of a one-time rate hike of 50 basis points is emerging in developed country markets.</b></p><p>On Wednesday, New Zealand became the first developed country to implement a 50-basis-point rate hike, followed by Canada's addition. The market's current focus is on: when will it be the Federal Reserve's turn?</p><p><b>Reserve Bank of New Zealand: Largest rate hike in 22 years</b></p><p>On Wednesday, the Reserve Bank of New Zealand unexpectedly announced a 50 basis point increase in rate hike, raising the official cash rate (OCR) from 1% to 1.5%, the largest rate hike in 22 years.</p><p>In a previous Bloomberg survey of 20 economists, 15 expected the Reserve Bank of New Zealand to rate hike by only 25 basis points.</p><p>New Zealand’s inflation rate has soared to 5.9%, up from 1.4% a year ago, almost double the top of its 1-3% target range, and a 32-year high.</p><p>Not only did the rate hike reach 50 basis points this time, but the market also expects the possibility of another 50 basis points increase to over 50%.</p><p><b>Bank of Canada: rate hike by 50 basis points for the first time in the G7</b></p><p>Late Wednesday, the Bank of Canada also joined the ranks of the one-time rate hike of 50 basis points, raising its policy interest rate to 1%, and intends to begin shrinking balance sheet in two weeks.</p><p>The Bank of Canada was the first central bank in the G7 countries to significantly rate hike by 50 basis points in one go, and also the country's first 50 basis point rate hike since May 2000. It also marked the country's largest rate hike in 22 years.</p><p>A growing number of analysts believe that the Bank of Canada may announce another significant 50 basis point rate hike on June 1, as CPI inflation in February has been above the 1% to 3% control range for the 11th consecutive month.</p><p><b>Federal Reserve: Is a 50 basis point rise in rate hike imminent?</b></p><p><b>Although central banks in developed countries do not have any ironclad rules for adjusting benchmark interest rates, in recent decades, except in the event of special crises, the practice of central bank rate hike has been a small adjustment of 25 basis points.</b></p><p>However, in the current inflationary environment, this approach is clearly insufficient, forcing policymakers around the world to signal greater rate hike than usual.</p><p>Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell has stated that the Fed will rate hike by 50 basis points if necessary. This position was supported by several other Federal Reserve officials.</p><p>Wall Street Insights previously mentioned that, following the first 25-basis-point rate hike in March, including Chairman Powell, \"King of Hawks\" Bullard, Cleveland Fed President Mester, and New York Fed President...<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/WMB\">Williams</a>Several Fed officials, including Federal Reserve Governor Waller and recently San Francisco Fed President Mary Daly, have stated that they are willing to raise the rate hike to 50 basis points at the May FOMC meeting if necessary to control inflation.</p><p>The minutes of the March Federal Reserve meeting also reinforced this point: at the March meeting, several Fed officials believed that one or more 50 basis point rate hike might be necessary in the future if inflation and economic conditions required it.</p><p>Market speculation has also intensified that the Federal Reserve may rate hike 50 basis points at its next meeting, with futures prices indicating an 88% chance of the Fed rate hike 50 basis points at its next meeting.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/589f9beb480038b8ea394130dab86b0a\" tg-width=\"1271\" tg-height=\"615\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><b>Tuesday's release of the largest U.S. CPI increase in March since December 1981, covering a wider range of goods and services, further exacerbates this possibility.</b></p><p>The idea is that with prices so high right now, monetary authorities need to be bolder in curbing them, otherwise more action will have to be taken later if inflation becomes entrenched.</p><p>In summarizing its policy, the Reserve Bank of New Zealand stated that they are concerned that inflation expectations are becoming entrenched, and given the highly uncertain global economic environment, larger initiatives now also provide greater policy flexibility for the future.</p><p>The market currently expects the European Central Bank to take no action at this week's meeting, but policymakers facing record inflation will be closely watching the meeting for more clues about possible rate hike later this year.</p><p><b>What will happen to the market if there is a significant rate hike?</b></p><p>The obvious risk is that acting quickly could also shake markets and lead to a recession. Some worry that tight monetary policy cannot address rising inflation caused by supply shocks.</p><p>The UK's March CPI, released on Wednesday, rose 7.0% year-on-year, the highest in 30 years, and the Bank of England is under pressure to further rate hike. However, after the UK's GDP growth rate in February was only 0.1%, rising inflation will further raise concerns about the risk of the economy falling into stagflation.</p><p>This is undoubtedly an unstable period for the market. According to Bloomberg,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BAC\">Bank of America</a>A recent survey of fund managers found that their optimism about global growth is at an all-time low, while concerns about monetary policy mistakes are at an all-time high.</p><p></body></html></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> source：<a href=\"https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3656895\">华尔街见闻</a></p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0ec5233f089609157cdfe5fb1d3ac57d","relate_stocks":{"161125":"标普500","513500":"标普500ETF博时","BK4553":"喜马拉雅资本持仓",".DJI":"道琼斯","SQQQ":"纳指三倍做空ETF","BK4534":"瑞士信贷持仓",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite","SPXU":"三倍做空标普500ETF-ProShares","IVV":"标普500ETF-iShares","PSQ":"做空纳斯达克100指数ETF-ProShares",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index","QLD":"2倍做多纳斯达克100指数ETF-ProShares","DDM":"2倍做多道指ETF-ProShares","SPY":"标普500ETF","BK4504":"桥水持仓","QID":"两倍做空纳斯达克指数ETF-ProShares","BK4559":"巴菲特持仓","SSO":"2倍做多标普500ETF-ProShares","SDOW":"三倍做空道指30ETF-ProShares","BK4550":"红杉资本持仓","BAC":"美国银行","OEF":"标普100指数ETF-iShares","OEX":"标普100","DXD":"两倍做空道琼30指数ETF-ProShares","DJX":"1/100道琼斯","SDS":"两倍做空标普500 ETF-ProShares","BK4207":"综合性银行","QQQ":"纳指100ETF","SH":"做空标普500-Proshares","BK4581":"高盛持仓","TQQQ":"纳指三倍做多ETF","UPRO":"三倍做多标普500ETF-ProShares","UDOW":"三倍做多道指30ETF-ProShares","DOG":"道指ETF-ProShares做空"},"source_url":"https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3656895","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2227646245","content_text":"今年以来，全球有30多家新兴市场央行一次性加息至少50个基点，比如巴基斯坦本月将利率提高了250个基点，紧随其后，饱受危机困扰的斯里兰卡也将利率提高了700个基点。随着通胀风暴愈演愈烈，目前一次性加息50个点的趋势正在发达国家市场显现。周三新西兰成为首个一次加息50个基点的发达国家，随后加拿大也加入该行列。目前市场关注焦点自于，什么时候轮到美联储？新西兰联储：以22年来最大幅度加息周三，新西兰联储出人意料地宣布加息50个基点，将官方现金利率（OCR）从1%上调至1.5%，这是22年以来最大幅度的加息。在此前彭博对20位经济学家进行的调查中，有15位都预计新西兰联储只会加息25个基点。目前新西兰的通胀水平已飙升至5.9%，高于一年前的1.4%，几乎是其1-3%目标区间顶部的两倍，并刷新32年以来新高。不仅这次加息50基点，市场预计下一次再加50基点的可能性已经超过50%。加拿大央行：G7中首次大幅加息50个基点周三晚些时候，加拿大央行也加入一次性加息50基点行列，将政策利率升至1%，并且打算两周后开始缩表。加拿大央行是G7国家中首个一次性大幅加息50个基点的央行，也是该国2000年5月以来首次加息50个基点，同时创下该国22年来最大的加息规模。越来越多的分析相信，加拿大央行或在6月1日再次宣布大幅加息50个基点，因为2月CPI通胀已是连续第11个月高于1%至3%的管控区间。美联储：加息50个基点箭在弦上？虽然发达国家央行在调整基准利率方面并没有什么铁律，但近几十年来，除遇特殊危机之外，各国央行加息的惯例一直是25个基点的小幅调整。然而在当前的通胀环境下，这种做法显然是不够的，迫使世界各地的政策制定者发出比通常水平更大的加息信号。美联储主席鲍威尔曾表示，如有必要，美联储将加息50个基点。这一立场得到了其他几位美联储官员的支持。华尔街见闻此前提及，继3月首度加息25个bp后，包括主席鲍威尔、“鹰派之王”布拉德、克利夫兰联储主席梅斯特、纽约联储主席威廉姆斯、美联储理事Waller、包括最近旧金山联储行长 Mary Daly在内的多位联储官员曾表态，如有必要控制通胀，他们愿在5月FOMC会议上提高加息幅度至50基点。3月美联储会议纪要也强化了这一点：3月会议上，多名联储官员认为，若通胀和经济形势需要，未来可能要一次或者更多次加息50个基点。市场对美联储可能在下次会议上加息50基点的猜测也已经升温，期货价格显示，美联储下次会议加息50个基点的可能性为88%。而周二公布的3月美国CPI升幅为1981年12月以来最大，且涵盖更多商品和服务，更加剧了这种可能性。人们的想法是，现在物价如此火爆，货币当局需要更大胆地抑制它们，否则如果通胀变得根深蒂固，以后就必须采取更多行动。新西兰联储在总结其政策时表示，他们担心通胀预期正变得根深蒂固，鉴于全球经济环境高度不确定，现在更大的举措也为未来提供了更大的政策灵活性。目前市场预计欧洲央行本周的会议不会采取行动，但面临创纪录通胀的决策者们将密切关注此次会议，以寻找更多可能在今年晚些时候加息的线索。如果真的大幅度加息，市场怎么办？显而易见的风险是，行动迅速也可能动摇市场，并导致衰退。一些人担心，紧缩的货币政策无法解决供应冲击造成的通胀上升。周三公布的英国3月CPI同比增长7.0%，再创30年来最高纪录，英国央行也面临进一步加息的压力，然而，在英国2月份GDP增长率仅为0.1%之后，通胀上升将进一步引发人们对经济陷入滞胀风险的担忧。对于市场而言，这无疑是一个不稳定的时期。据彭博，美国银行对基金经理进行的最新调查发现，他们对全球增长的乐观情绪处于历史最低点，而对货币政策错误的担忧处于历史最高水平。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"161125":0.6,"513500":0.6,"MNQmain":0.6,".DJI":0.9,"SH":0.6,"DJX":0.6,"SSO":0.6,"QID":0.6,"OEX":0.6,"TQQQ":0.6,"SDOW":0.6,"SQQQ":0.6,"PSQ":0.6,"NQmain":0.6,".IXIC":0.9,".SPX":0.6,"QLD":0.6,"SDS":0.6,"SPXU":0.6,"DDM":0.6,"DOG":0.6,"DXD":0.6,"UPRO":0.6,"QQQ":0.6,"BAC":0.69,"UDOW":0.6,"OCR":1,"IVV":0.6,"OEF":0.6,"ESmain":0.6,"SPY":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1681,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0}],"hots":[{"id":9033399582,"gmtCreate":1646183397183,"gmtModify":1676534101114,"author":{"id":"3581647091503821","authorId":"3581647091503821","name":"谷岳HZ","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3581647091503821","idStr":"3581647091503821"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Nice","listText":"Nice","text":"Nice","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":4,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9033399582","repostId":"2216149459","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"2216149459","kind":"highlight","pubTimestamp":1646176082,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/2216149459?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2022-03-02 07:08","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"Biden's State of the Union speech: A new plan to fight inflation will be drawn up, taking shipping to the knife","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2216149459","media":"华尔街见闻","summary":"拜登将强调过去一年美国抗击新冠疫情的成就和前景改善，并将因民主党参议员曼钦不支持而停滞的“重建更好”社会支出计划“重新打包和命名”，挑选其中能降低家庭生活成本和抑制通胀飙升的内容希望得到立法批准。为降低消费者价格，白宫还将对全球航运联盟进行监管打击。","content":"<p><html><head></head><body>Summary: Biden intends to \"repackage and name\" the \"Build Back Better\" social spending plan stalled because Democratic Senator Manchin doesn't support it, focusing on \"selling\" content that can reduce the cost of living for families and curb soaring inflation. The White House will also launch a regulatory crackdown on the global shipping alliance, \"dumping the blame\" on the problem of inflation. On Tuesday, March 1, at 9 p.m. EST (10 a.m. Beijing time on March 2), Biden will deliver his first State of the Union speech since taking office as president of the United States. CCTV News mentioned yesterday that Biden will talk about the situation in Ukraine and announce new US domestic policy proposals.</p><p>According to White House officials, in his speech, Biden will highlight the achievements and improved prospects of the U.S. fight against the COVID-19 pandemic over the past year, and \"repackage and name\" the Build Back Better social spending plan, which stalled because Democratic Sen. Manchin didn't support it, picking the elements of the original plan that can reduce the cost of living for families and curb soaring inflation, hoping to get legislative approval from Congress.</p><p>He outlined that the focus of U.S. economic policy in the coming year may be on expanding child tax credits, lowering child care and elderly care costs, lowering health care costs and negotiating prices for prescription drugs, and suppressing energy inflation by releasing strategic crude oil reserves in cooperation with other oil-consuming countries. \"It will provide a plan on energy, child care, and health care costs.\"</p><p>It is worth noting that in terms of pressurizing the inflationary costs caused by soaring energy prices,<b>Biden will announce steps to address maritime industry annexations, such as a regulatory crackdown on the global shipping alliance, which the White House believes could help reduce the prices consumers bear</b>。</p><p>CCTV Finance mentioned more than a month ago that the Baltic Freight Index showed that in the past year, the standard freight rate from Asia to North America rose six times year-on-year, of which the highest quotation from Shanghai to Los Angeles soared nearly 12 times year-on-year. Industry insiders said: \"A box is hard to find, and a box of ten thousand gold will make the whole trade market shrink for international trade.\"</p><p>At the same time, Biden will also emphasize the favorable investment of the $1.2 trillion bipartisan support infrastructure bill signed into law last November, explain how the legislative proposals for climate change will reduce costs and create jobs for low-and middle-income families, call on the U.S. Congress to pass the Competitiveness Act to revitalize the U.S. high-tech manufacturing industry and domestic supply chain, and look forward to the new development stage of the \"post-epidemic era\".</p><p>\"Biden is absolutely going to talk about inflation in his State of the Union speech, and he's focused more on what people experience in times of high inflation than just treating it as a statistic,\" White House press spokeswoman Jen Psaki said.</p><p>Additionally, Biden will call for bipartisan support in Congress for the birth of the nation's first black female justice, having nominated Ketanji Brown Jackson to the Supreme Court last week. He could propose steps lawmakers could take to reduce the federal deficit and address specific actions such as voting rights reform, gun control and police reform. Democrats also hope to use the speech to build momentum for November's congressional midterm elections.</p><p>The analysis pointed out that Biden's first State of the Union speech, which happened to take place during an embarrassing period of low domestic approval ratings and turbulent international geopolitical situation, faced stagnant social spending and climate agendas in the United States, as well as inflation soaring to a 40-year high, which will erode Americans' disposable income and threaten the nation's economic recovery from the pandemic.</p><p>Recent polls by different institutions have shown that the approval rating of American people for Biden has dropped significantly since January 2021, or even reached a new low, with the approval rating less than 40%.</p><p>According to CCTV News, Americans are particularly dissatisfied with Biden's handling of economic issues. A poll released two days ago said that 58% of Americans oppose Biden's handling of economic issues, 75% of Americans have a negative opinion of the U.S. economy, and 54% of Americans believe that the U.S. economy has gotten worse since Biden took office.</p><p>Biden's speech today will also be seen as proof that the United States has emerged from the worst of the COVID-19 pandemic. The attendance rate of the House of Representatives will be nearly full, and those in attendance can choose not to wear masks, all in stark contrast to his speech to Congress last year.</p><p>He will also use the number of new jobs in the United States last year to prove that the pandemic is under control. About 6.4 million new jobs were added in the U.S. in 2021, the highest annual increase on record, but still 3.6 million fewer hiring opportunities than pre-pandemic levels.</p><p></body></html></p>","source":"wallstreetcn_api","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Biden's State of the Union speech: A new plan to fight inflation will be drawn up, taking shipping to the knife</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nBiden's State of the Union speech: A new plan to fight inflation will be drawn up, taking shipping to the knife\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">华尔街见闻</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2022-03-02 07:08</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><html><head></head><body>Summary: Biden intends to \"repackage and name\" the \"Build Back Better\" social spending plan stalled because Democratic Senator Manchin doesn't support it, focusing on \"selling\" content that can reduce the cost of living for families and curb soaring inflation. The White House will also launch a regulatory crackdown on the global shipping alliance, \"dumping the blame\" on the problem of inflation. On Tuesday, March 1, at 9 p.m. EST (10 a.m. Beijing time on March 2), Biden will deliver his first State of the Union speech since taking office as president of the United States. CCTV News mentioned yesterday that Biden will talk about the situation in Ukraine and announce new US domestic policy proposals.</p><p>According to White House officials, in his speech, Biden will highlight the achievements and improved prospects of the U.S. fight against the COVID-19 pandemic over the past year, and \"repackage and name\" the Build Back Better social spending plan, which stalled because Democratic Sen. Manchin didn't support it, picking the elements of the original plan that can reduce the cost of living for families and curb soaring inflation, hoping to get legislative approval from Congress.</p><p>He outlined that the focus of U.S. economic policy in the coming year may be on expanding child tax credits, lowering child care and elderly care costs, lowering health care costs and negotiating prices for prescription drugs, and suppressing energy inflation by releasing strategic crude oil reserves in cooperation with other oil-consuming countries. \"It will provide a plan on energy, child care, and health care costs.\"</p><p>It is worth noting that in terms of pressurizing the inflationary costs caused by soaring energy prices,<b>Biden will announce steps to address maritime industry annexations, such as a regulatory crackdown on the global shipping alliance, which the White House believes could help reduce the prices consumers bear</b>。</p><p>CCTV Finance mentioned more than a month ago that the Baltic Freight Index showed that in the past year, the standard freight rate from Asia to North America rose six times year-on-year, of which the highest quotation from Shanghai to Los Angeles soared nearly 12 times year-on-year. Industry insiders said: \"A box is hard to find, and a box of ten thousand gold will make the whole trade market shrink for international trade.\"</p><p>At the same time, Biden will also emphasize the favorable investment of the $1.2 trillion bipartisan support infrastructure bill signed into law last November, explain how the legislative proposals for climate change will reduce costs and create jobs for low-and middle-income families, call on the U.S. Congress to pass the Competitiveness Act to revitalize the U.S. high-tech manufacturing industry and domestic supply chain, and look forward to the new development stage of the \"post-epidemic era\".</p><p>\"Biden is absolutely going to talk about inflation in his State of the Union speech, and he's focused more on what people experience in times of high inflation than just treating it as a statistic,\" White House press spokeswoman Jen Psaki said.</p><p>Additionally, Biden will call for bipartisan support in Congress for the birth of the nation's first black female justice, having nominated Ketanji Brown Jackson to the Supreme Court last week. He could propose steps lawmakers could take to reduce the federal deficit and address specific actions such as voting rights reform, gun control and police reform. Democrats also hope to use the speech to build momentum for November's congressional midterm elections.</p><p>The analysis pointed out that Biden's first State of the Union speech, which happened to take place during an embarrassing period of low domestic approval ratings and turbulent international geopolitical situation, faced stagnant social spending and climate agendas in the United States, as well as inflation soaring to a 40-year high, which will erode Americans' disposable income and threaten the nation's economic recovery from the pandemic.</p><p>Recent polls by different institutions have shown that the approval rating of American people for Biden has dropped significantly since January 2021, or even reached a new low, with the approval rating less than 40%.</p><p>According to CCTV News, Americans are particularly dissatisfied with Biden's handling of economic issues. A poll released two days ago said that 58% of Americans oppose Biden's handling of economic issues, 75% of Americans have a negative opinion of the U.S. economy, and 54% of Americans believe that the U.S. economy has gotten worse since Biden took office.</p><p>Biden's speech today will also be seen as proof that the United States has emerged from the worst of the COVID-19 pandemic. The attendance rate of the House of Representatives will be nearly full, and those in attendance can choose not to wear masks, all in stark contrast to his speech to Congress last year.</p><p>He will also use the number of new jobs in the United States last year to prove that the pandemic is under control. About 6.4 million new jobs were added in the U.S. in 2021, the highest annual increase on record, but still 3.6 million fewer hiring opportunities than pre-pandemic levels.</p><p></body></html></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> source：<a href=\"https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3653128\">华尔街见闻</a></p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a06fb8b1db7037b689423e44b4d5b305","relate_stocks":{".DJI":"道琼斯",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite"},"source_url":"https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3653128","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2216149459","content_text":"摘要：拜登打算将因民主党参议员曼钦不支持而停滞的“重建更好”社会支出计划“重新打包和命名”，重点“推销”能降低家庭生活成本和抑制通胀飙升的内容。白宫还将对全球航运联盟进行监管打击，将通胀问题“甩锅”海运业竞争不足。3月1日周二美东时间晚9点（北京时间3月2日早10点），拜登将发表其就任美国总统以来的首次国情咨文演讲。央视新闻昨日提到，拜登将谈论乌克兰局势并宣布新的美国国内政策提案。据白宫官员介绍，拜登在演讲中将强调过去一年美国抗击新冠疫情的成就和前景改善，并将因民主党参议员曼钦不支持而停滞的“重建更好”社会支出计划“重新打包和命名”，挑选原计划中能降低家庭生活成本和抑制通胀飙升的内容，希望得到国会立法批准。他勾勒出的未来一年美国经济政策重点可能会放在扩大儿童税收抵免、降低儿童保育和老人看护费用、降低医疗保健成本和处方药谈判价格、通过与其他石油消费国合作释放战略原油储备来打压能源通胀等方面，“将提供关于能源、儿童保育、以及医疗保健成本的一份计划”。值得注意的是，在压降能源价格飙升造成的通胀成本过高方面，拜登将宣布采取措施来解决海运业的兼并问题，例如对全球航运联盟进行监管打击，白宫认为这有助于降低消费者承担的价格。央视财经一个多月前提到，波罗的海运价指数显示，过去一年，从亚洲到北美航线标准运费同比上涨6倍，其中上海到洛杉矶最高报价同比暴涨近12倍。业内人士表示：“一箱难求、一箱万金，对于国际贸易来讲，会让整个贸易市场萎缩。”同时，拜登还将强调去年11月签署成法律生效的1.2万亿美元两党支持基础设施法案投资利好，阐述针对气候变化的立法建议将如何降低中低收入家庭的成本并创造就业机会，呼吁美国国会通过竞争力法案来振兴美国高科技制造业和国内供应链，并展望“后疫情时代”的新发展阶段。白宫新闻发言人珍·普萨基表示：“拜登绝对会在国情咨文演讲中谈到通货膨胀，他更关注人们在高通胀时期的体验，而不是将其仅仅视为统计数据。”此外，拜登将呼吁国会两党共同支持美国诞生第一位黑人女性大法官，上周他提名Ketanji Brown Jackson入选最高法院。他可能会提出立法者可以采取减少联邦赤字的措施，并涉及投票权改革、枪支管制和警察改革等具体行动。民主党还希望借助本次演讲为11月的国会中期选举造势。分析指出，拜登的首份国情咨文演讲，恰好发生在国内支持率低迷和国际地缘政治局势动荡的尴尬时期，他在美国国内面临着停滞不前的社会支出和气候议程，以及飙升至40年高位的通胀，后者将侵蚀美国人的可支配收入，并威胁到美国从疫情中经济复苏。近期多份不同机构的民意调查都显示，美国民众对拜登的支持率自2021月1月显著下降，甚至是再创新低、支持率不足四成。据央视新闻总结，美国人对拜登处理经济问题的方式尤其不满，两天前发表的一份民调称，58%的美国人反对拜登处理经济问题采取的方式、75%的美国人对美国经济持负面评价、54%的美国人认为自拜登上任以来美国经济变得更糟。拜登今日演讲也会被视为美国已走出新冠疫情最严重时期的证明，众议院的听众到场率将接近满员，而且到场的听众可以选择不戴口罩，都与去年他在国会致辞形成鲜明对比。他还会用美国去年新增就业情况来证明疫情得到控制。2021年美国新增约640万个工作岗位，年度增幅创有纪录以来的史上最高，但仍比疫情前水平少了360万个雇用机会。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{".DJI":0,".IXIC":0,".SPX":0}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1867,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9038771166,"gmtCreate":1646925656370,"gmtModify":1676534178115,"author":{"id":"3581647091503821","authorId":"3581647091503821","name":"谷岳HZ","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3581647091503821","idStr":"3581647091503821"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"nice","listText":"nice","text":"nice","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9038771166","repostId":"1101370304","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1101370304","kind":"news","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"中国大陆领先的金融数据、信息和软件服务企业，总部位于上海陆家嘴金融中心。","home_visible":1,"media_name":"Wind万得","id":"99","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c71e30d1317b4a5cb20a41998e10ac68"},"pubTimestamp":1646895563,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1101370304?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2022-03-10 14:59","market":"fut","language":"zh","title":"Commodities Parking for Fuel, or Historical Big Top?","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1101370304","media":"Wind万得","summary":"随着俄乌冲突的暂时缓解，以及伦镍逼空剧情反转，大宗商品价格在一路狂奔后急跌。此轮行情就此结束还是上涨途中暂时喘息？消息面上，乌克兰执政党人民公仆党日前发表声明称，乌不可能在未来几年加入北约，同时提议莫","content":"<p><html><head></head><body>With the temporary relief of the Russia-Ukraine conflict and the reversal of the short-squeezing plot of Lun Ni, commodity prices plummeted after rushing all the way. Is this the end of this round of market or a temporary respite on the way up?</p><p>On the news, Ukraine's ruling People's Servant Party recently issued a statement saying that Ukraine is unlikely to join NATO in the next few years, and proposed that Moscow legally recognize Ukraine's statehood and guarantee that \"Kyiv is not threatened\". Russia-Ukraine became a short-lived ceasefire agreement that would open humanitarian corridors for civilians. So far, this is a substantial progress in Russia-Ukraine negotiations.</p><p>After the nickel soared by more than 200% in two days, the short Qingshan Group responded that it had allocated sufficient spot for delivery. At the same time, the London Stock Exchange announced that it would double the nickel trading margin requirement to 4,808 USD/ton after the close of the market on March 10th; In addition, the initial margin for aluminum, zinc, and copper was increased by 8.3%, 7.1%, and 4.4%, respectively. Commodities are temporarily dead.</p><p>Affected by the news, commodities fell sharply under the leadership of international oil prices.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2e28f08dbff3ef93197438ef99108f45\" tg-width=\"796\" tg-height=\"733\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>As the king of commodities, if oil has not fallen, commodities have not turned for the time being.</p><p>In the latest news, on the afternoon of March 10th, Beijing time, the U.S. House of Representatives passed a bill banning U.S. imports of Russian oil with 414 votes in favor and 17 votes against. Members of both parties demanded more severe punishment for Russia's attack on Ukraine. The ban contains a provision that allows the president to import certain products if they are \"in the national interest,\" subject to review by Congress. The ban will take effect 45 days after it is signed into law.</p><p>According to the data, before the Russia-Ukraine conflict, Russia's crude oil and refined oil exports averaged 4.7 million barrels and 2.8 million barrels per day, respectively, while the U.S. imported 670,000 barrels per day of crude oil and refined oil from Russia in 2021. The United States and Europe imported about 4.3 million barrels a day of Russian oil in January, and research firm Rystad Energy estimates that a global output cut of 4 million barrels a day would lift crude prices to $200 a barrel.</p><p>Since it has been decided to ban oil imports from Russia, it is necessary to find oil from other places instead. The first target must be OPEC. According to Rystad data, OPEC + has about 4 million barrels per day of idle production capacity, mainly concentrated in Saudi Arabia, Iraq, Iran and the United Arab Emirates.</p><p>But the leaders of Saudi Arabia and the UAE rejected the call with Biden, according to the US newspaper Capitol Hill. OPEC Secretary-General Barkindo said that although oil prices in the futures market have risen by more than 30% since the Russia-Ukraine conflict, there is no real shortage of oil.</p><p>In fact, at the latest meeting after Russia sent troops to Ukraine, it took only 13 minutes for OPEC + to decide to stick to the original production plan, which was also their shortest meeting ever.</p><p>Another breakthrough was in Venezuela, the U.S. neighbor, where crude oil production averaged 636,000 barrels per day in 2020. The U.S. government offered to import Venezuelan crude oil in exchange for easing economic sanctions on Venezuela. However, the U.S. State Department and Petroleos Venezuela have yet to respond to the matter. However, the Venezuelan government has released two American citizens.</p><p>As the king of commodities, Brent oil and New York crude oil have both risen by more than 40% since the beginning of the year. Although the war between Russia and Ukraine has eased now, the follow-up economic sanctions against Russia have just begun. At present, there are nearly 3,000 sanctions against Russia, large and small, and Russia has also surpassed Iran to become the most severely sanctioned country in the world. The longer and stronger the sanctions, the higher the probability of commodities rising.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/10e526b6cfe6f2254f887ded4d912dfd\" tg-width=\"796\" tg-height=\"428\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p></body></html></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Commodities Parking for Fuel, or Historical Big Top?</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nCommodities Parking for Fuel, or Historical Big Top?\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/99\">\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/c71e30d1317b4a5cb20a41998e10ac68);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">Wind万得 </p>\n<p class=\"h-time smaller\">2022-03-10 14:59</p>\n</div>\n</a>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><html><head></head><body>With the temporary relief of the Russia-Ukraine conflict and the reversal of the short-squeezing plot of Lun Ni, commodity prices plummeted after rushing all the way. Is this the end of this round of market or a temporary respite on the way up?</p><p>On the news, Ukraine's ruling People's Servant Party recently issued a statement saying that Ukraine is unlikely to join NATO in the next few years, and proposed that Moscow legally recognize Ukraine's statehood and guarantee that \"Kyiv is not threatened\". Russia-Ukraine became a short-lived ceasefire agreement that would open humanitarian corridors for civilians. So far, this is a substantial progress in Russia-Ukraine negotiations.</p><p>After the nickel soared by more than 200% in two days, the short Qingshan Group responded that it had allocated sufficient spot for delivery. At the same time, the London Stock Exchange announced that it would double the nickel trading margin requirement to 4,808 USD/ton after the close of the market on March 10th; In addition, the initial margin for aluminum, zinc, and copper was increased by 8.3%, 7.1%, and 4.4%, respectively. Commodities are temporarily dead.</p><p>Affected by the news, commodities fell sharply under the leadership of international oil prices.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2e28f08dbff3ef93197438ef99108f45\" tg-width=\"796\" tg-height=\"733\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>As the king of commodities, if oil has not fallen, commodities have not turned for the time being.</p><p>In the latest news, on the afternoon of March 10th, Beijing time, the U.S. House of Representatives passed a bill banning U.S. imports of Russian oil with 414 votes in favor and 17 votes against. Members of both parties demanded more severe punishment for Russia's attack on Ukraine. The ban contains a provision that allows the president to import certain products if they are \"in the national interest,\" subject to review by Congress. The ban will take effect 45 days after it is signed into law.</p><p>According to the data, before the Russia-Ukraine conflict, Russia's crude oil and refined oil exports averaged 4.7 million barrels and 2.8 million barrels per day, respectively, while the U.S. imported 670,000 barrels per day of crude oil and refined oil from Russia in 2021. The United States and Europe imported about 4.3 million barrels a day of Russian oil in January, and research firm Rystad Energy estimates that a global output cut of 4 million barrels a day would lift crude prices to $200 a barrel.</p><p>Since it has been decided to ban oil imports from Russia, it is necessary to find oil from other places instead. The first target must be OPEC. According to Rystad data, OPEC + has about 4 million barrels per day of idle production capacity, mainly concentrated in Saudi Arabia, Iraq, Iran and the United Arab Emirates.</p><p>But the leaders of Saudi Arabia and the UAE rejected the call with Biden, according to the US newspaper Capitol Hill. OPEC Secretary-General Barkindo said that although oil prices in the futures market have risen by more than 30% since the Russia-Ukraine conflict, there is no real shortage of oil.</p><p>In fact, at the latest meeting after Russia sent troops to Ukraine, it took only 13 minutes for OPEC + to decide to stick to the original production plan, which was also their shortest meeting ever.</p><p>Another breakthrough was in Venezuela, the U.S. neighbor, where crude oil production averaged 636,000 barrels per day in 2020. The U.S. government offered to import Venezuelan crude oil in exchange for easing economic sanctions on Venezuela. However, the U.S. State Department and Petroleos Venezuela have yet to respond to the matter. However, the Venezuelan government has released two American citizens.</p><p>As the king of commodities, Brent oil and New York crude oil have both risen by more than 40% since the beginning of the year. Although the war between Russia and Ukraine has eased now, the follow-up economic sanctions against Russia have just begun. At present, there are nearly 3,000 sanctions against Russia, large and small, and Russia has also surpassed Iran to become the most severely sanctioned country in the world. The longer and stronger the sanctions, the higher the probability of commodities rising.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/10e526b6cfe6f2254f887ded4d912dfd\" tg-width=\"796\" tg-height=\"428\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p></body></html></p>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5d8fb95e65f042f352c6313989391357","relate_stocks":{"161715":"大宗商品","000979.SH":"大宗商品"},"source_url":"","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1101370304","content_text":"随着俄乌冲突的暂时缓解，以及伦镍逼空剧情反转，大宗商品价格在一路狂奔后急跌。此轮行情就此结束还是上涨途中暂时喘息？消息面上，乌克兰执政党人民公仆党日前发表声明称，乌不可能在未来几年加入北约，同时提议莫斯科在法律上承认乌国家地位并保证“基辅不受威胁”。俄乌克成了短暂的停火协议，将为平民开辟人道主义走廊。截止到目前为止，这是俄乌谈判取得的实质性进展。伦镍两日暴涨超200%后，空头青山集团回应，已调配到充足现货进行交割，同时伦交所宣布，3月10日收盘后起，将镍交易保证金要求提高一倍，至4808美元/吨；此外，将铝、锌和铜的初始保证金分别上调8.3%、7.1%和4.4%。大宗商品暂时偃旗息鼓。受消息面影响，大宗商品在国际油价带领下大幅下挫。作为商品之王，石油如果还没有倒下，大宗商品暂时就还没转向。最新消息，北京时间3月10日下午，美国众议院以414票赞成，17票反对通过了禁止美国进口俄罗斯石油的法案，两党议员都要求对俄罗斯进攻乌克兰进行更严厉的惩罚。禁令包含一项条款，允许总统在“符合国家利益”的情况下进口某些产品，但须经国会审查。禁令将在签署成为法律后的45天生效。数据显示，俄乌冲突之前，俄罗斯原油和成品油出口规模分别为日均470万桶和280万桶，而2021年美国从俄罗斯进口原油和成品油的数量为日均67万桶。今年1月份美国和欧洲每日进口约430万桶俄罗斯石油，研究机构Rystad Energy估计，全球每日减产400万桶将使原油价格升至每桶200美元。既然决定禁止从俄进口石油，就要从别的地方找油代替，第一目标肯定是OPEC，根据Rystad的数据，OPEC+拥有约400万桶/日的闲置产能，主要集中在沙特、伊拉克、伊朗和阿联酋。但据美国《国会山报》报道，沙特和阿联酋领导人拒绝了与拜登的通话。OPEC秘书长巴尔金多表示，尽管自俄乌冲突以来，期货市场的油价上涨了30%以上，但石油并不存在实际短缺。其实在俄罗斯出兵乌克兰后的最近一次会议上，OPEC+只用了13分钟就决定坚持原来的生产计划，这也是他们有史以来最短的一次会面。另一个突破口是美国近邻委内瑞拉，2020年委内瑞拉原油产量为日均63.6万桶。美国政府提出进口委内瑞拉原油，作为交换，美国放松对委内瑞拉经济制裁。不过，美国国务院和委内瑞拉石油公司尚未回应此事。不过委内瑞拉政府已经释放两名美国公民。作为大宗商品之王，布油和纽约原油年初至今双双涨超40%，虽然现在俄乌战事有所缓解，但后续对俄的经济制裁才刚开始，目前对俄罗斯大大小小各种制裁近3000项，俄罗斯也超越伊朗，成为全球被制裁最严重的国家，制裁时间越长，力度越大，大宗商品上涨几率就越高。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"161715":0.9,"000979.SH":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":968,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9098593947,"gmtCreate":1644170249307,"gmtModify":1676533895814,"author":{"id":"3581647091503821","authorId":"3581647091503821","name":"谷岳HZ","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3581647091503821","idStr":"3581647091503821"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"nice","listText":"nice","text":"nice","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9098593947","repostId":"2209328505","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1561,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9031332552,"gmtCreate":1646441561403,"gmtModify":1676534129598,"author":{"id":"3581647091503821","authorId":"3581647091503821","name":"谷岳HZ","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3581647091503821","idStr":"3581647091503821"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"nice","listText":"nice","text":"nice","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9031332552","repostId":"2216646810","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"2216646810","kind":"highlight","pubTimestamp":1646403374,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/2216646810?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2022-03-04 22:16","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"Analysis | Non-farm performance is brilliant, the Federal Reserve has to step up its efforts to deal with inflation?","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2216646810","media":"金十数据","summary":"美国2月季调后非农就业人口录得增加67.8万人，为去年7月来最大增幅，高于市场预期。1月份非农新增就业人数从46.7万人上修至48.1万人；去年12月份非农新增就业人数从51万人上修至58.8万人。 ","content":"<p><html><head></head><body>In February, the seasonally adjusted non-farm payrolls in the United States recorded an increase of 678,000, the largest increase since July last year, which was higher than market expectations. In January, the number of new non-farm jobs was revised up from 467,000 to 481,000; Last December, the number of new non-farm jobs was revised up from 510,000 to 588,000. The U.S. unemployment rate recorded 3.8% in February, a new low since February 2020.</p><p>After the data was released, spot gold gave up its gains after rising by $2 in the short term. the US Dollar Index is 32 points higher in the short term; Non-US currencies were generally lower, with the euro losing more than 40 points against the dollar in the short term and the pound losing 30 points against the dollar in the short term.</p><p><b>The probability of Fed rate hike is up from before the data.</b>The probability of the Fed raising interest rates by 25 basis points in March is 97.8%, compared to 95.9% before; The probability of a 75 basis point rate hike in May is 23.5%, compared to 20.9% earlier.</p><p>The Bureau of Labor Statistics said employment grew generally, primarily in leisure and hospitality, professional and business services, health care and construction. This indicates a strong labor market as the Federal Reserve prepares for a rate hike, the Wall Street Journal said.</p><p>Analyst Carl Riccadonna said the jump in employment was such a sign that the unemployment rate will drop significantly this year. In the short term, this won't heat up the Fed rate hike 50 basis point expectation, especially as the Russia-Ukraine crisis intensifies, but<b>It will indeed make the state of federal funds much more dire later this year.</b></p><p>Analyst Katia Dmitrieva pointed to wages as a factor that frustrates employees. Wage increases were flat for the month, up 5.1% from a year earlier, despite higher-than-expected wage increases.<b>The annual increase is still more than twice what it was before the pandemic, but far less than any economist expected.</b>With inflation at a 40-year high, this is also a potentially worrying signal for personal finances.</p><p>Analyst Steve Matthews believes that the report seems to fit well with the kind of report the Fed wants to see. The labour force participation rate has improved nicely, so there has been some relief from the supply problem, which has previously been one of the problems on the employer side.<b>Wage growth has also declined, so there is little indication that wages are contributing to an inflation spiral.</b></p><p>Previously, Powell had announced that he would support and propose a 25 basis point rate hike at the March meeting, so the market generally said that this jobs report basically had no impact on the March decision. Fed Evans also said that the (jobs) report is good news, but<b>Won't change Fed Chairman Powell's plan.</b></p><p>At present, Ukraine's tension has triggered the market's worries about the economic stagflation. Coupled with Powell's cautious statement, the market is no longer aggressively betting on the Fed's rate hike of 50 basis points. It is expected that the Fed will rate hike six times this year, with a rate hike of 25 basis points each time.</p><p>But,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/GS\">Goldman Sachs</a>With a more pessimistic attitude, the agency raised its U.S. inflation forecast and projected more rate hike than expected from the Federal Reserve in 2023. Erik Norland, executive director and senior economist at CME group, pointed out that no matter which path the Fed ultimately follows in implementing monetary policy,<b>The impact on reality is policy tightening, and the general direction will not change at all.</b></p><p>Analysts believe that if the Federal Reserve is too fast to rate hike and shrinking balance sheet, the gold price will face a lot of room for adjustment. Previously, under the disturbance of safe-haven funds, the upper space of gold was further compressed, so the lower space was much larger than the upper space.</p><p><b>US February Non-farm Payrolls Report in Chinese</b></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/de0fb499f0466794df31e509152538f0\" tg-width=\"1600\" tg-height=\"7204\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p></body></html></p>","source":"xnew_highlight","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Analysis | Non-farm performance is brilliant, the Federal Reserve has to step up its efforts to deal with inflation?</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nAnalysis | Non-farm performance is brilliant, the Federal Reserve has to step up its efforts to deal with inflation?\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">金十数据</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2022-03-04 22:16</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><html><head></head><body>In February, the seasonally adjusted non-farm payrolls in the United States recorded an increase of 678,000, the largest increase since July last year, which was higher than market expectations. In January, the number of new non-farm jobs was revised up from 467,000 to 481,000; Last December, the number of new non-farm jobs was revised up from 510,000 to 588,000. The U.S. unemployment rate recorded 3.8% in February, a new low since February 2020.</p><p>After the data was released, spot gold gave up its gains after rising by $2 in the short term. the US Dollar Index is 32 points higher in the short term; Non-US currencies were generally lower, with the euro losing more than 40 points against the dollar in the short term and the pound losing 30 points against the dollar in the short term.</p><p><b>The probability of Fed rate hike is up from before the data.</b>The probability of the Fed raising interest rates by 25 basis points in March is 97.8%, compared to 95.9% before; The probability of a 75 basis point rate hike in May is 23.5%, compared to 20.9% earlier.</p><p>The Bureau of Labor Statistics said employment grew generally, primarily in leisure and hospitality, professional and business services, health care and construction. This indicates a strong labor market as the Federal Reserve prepares for a rate hike, the Wall Street Journal said.</p><p>Analyst Carl Riccadonna said the jump in employment was such a sign that the unemployment rate will drop significantly this year. In the short term, this won't heat up the Fed rate hike 50 basis point expectation, especially as the Russia-Ukraine crisis intensifies, but<b>It will indeed make the state of federal funds much more dire later this year.</b></p><p>Analyst Katia Dmitrieva pointed to wages as a factor that frustrates employees. Wage increases were flat for the month, up 5.1% from a year earlier, despite higher-than-expected wage increases.<b>The annual increase is still more than twice what it was before the pandemic, but far less than any economist expected.</b>With inflation at a 40-year high, this is also a potentially worrying signal for personal finances.</p><p>Analyst Steve Matthews believes that the report seems to fit well with the kind of report the Fed wants to see. The labour force participation rate has improved nicely, so there has been some relief from the supply problem, which has previously been one of the problems on the employer side.<b>Wage growth has also declined, so there is little indication that wages are contributing to an inflation spiral.</b></p><p>Previously, Powell had announced that he would support and propose a 25 basis point rate hike at the March meeting, so the market generally said that this jobs report basically had no impact on the March decision. Fed Evans also said that the (jobs) report is good news, but<b>Won't change Fed Chairman Powell's plan.</b></p><p>At present, Ukraine's tension has triggered the market's worries about the economic stagflation. Coupled with Powell's cautious statement, the market is no longer aggressively betting on the Fed's rate hike of 50 basis points. It is expected that the Fed will rate hike six times this year, with a rate hike of 25 basis points each time.</p><p>But,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/GS\">Goldman Sachs</a>With a more pessimistic attitude, the agency raised its U.S. inflation forecast and projected more rate hike than expected from the Federal Reserve in 2023. Erik Norland, executive director and senior economist at CME group, pointed out that no matter which path the Fed ultimately follows in implementing monetary policy,<b>The impact on reality is policy tightening, and the general direction will not change at all.</b></p><p>Analysts believe that if the Federal Reserve is too fast to rate hike and shrinking balance sheet, the gold price will face a lot of room for adjustment. Previously, under the disturbance of safe-haven funds, the upper space of gold was further compressed, so the lower space was much larger than the upper space.</p><p><b>US February Non-farm Payrolls Report in Chinese</b></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/de0fb499f0466794df31e509152538f0\" tg-width=\"1600\" tg-height=\"7204\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p></body></html></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> source：<a href=\"https://xnews.jin10.com/webapp/details.html?id=90875&type=news\">金十数据</a></p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/09feb8feb9c4225b11dae38a4ba99e09","relate_stocks":{"159934":"黄金ETF","161125":"标普500","513500":"标普500ETF博时","518880":"黄金ETF华安","IVV":"标普500ETF-iShares","PSQ":"做空纳斯达克100指数ETF-ProShares","SPXU":"三倍做空标普500ETF-ProShares","NUGT":"二倍做多黄金矿业指数ETF-Direxion","DDM":"2倍做多道指ETF-ProShares","QLD":"2倍做多纳斯达克100指数ETF-ProShares","IAU":"黄金信托ETF-iShares",".DJI":"道琼斯","QID":"两倍做空纳斯达克指数ETF-ProShares","SDOW":"三倍做空道指30ETF-ProShares","SSO":"2倍做多标普500ETF-ProShares",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite","BK4550":"红杉资本持仓",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index","BK4559":"巴菲特持仓","DXD":"两倍做空道琼30指数ETF-ProShares","BK4504":"桥水持仓","GDX":"黄金矿业ETF-VanEck","QQQ":"纳指100ETF","SDS":"两倍做空标普500 ETF-ProShares","OEF":"标普100指数ETF-iShares","SH":"做空标普500-Proshares","UDOW":"三倍做多道指30ETF-ProShares","TQQQ":"纳指三倍做多ETF","UPRO":"三倍做多标普500ETF-ProShares","GLD":"黄金ETF-SPDR","DOG":"道指ETF-ProShares做空","BK4534":"瑞士信贷持仓","SPY":"标普500ETF","OEX":"标普100","SQQQ":"纳指三倍做空ETF","DJX":"1/100道琼斯","BK4581":"高盛持仓","DUST":"二倍做空黄金矿业指数ETF-Direxion"},"source_url":"https://xnews.jin10.com/webapp/details.html?id=90875&type=news","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2216646810","content_text":"美国2月季调后非农就业人口录得增加67.8万人，为去年7月来最大增幅，高于市场预期。1月份非农新增就业人数从46.7万人上修至48.1万人；去年12月份非农新增就业人数从51万人上修至58.8万人。 美国2月失业率录得3.8%，为2020年2月来新低。数据公布后，现货黄金短线走高2美元后回吐涨幅。美元指数短线走高32点；非美货币普遍走低，欧元兑美元短线下跌逾40点，英镑兑美元短线下跌30点。美联储加息概率较数据公布前上升。美联储3月加息25个基点的概率为97.8%，之前为95.9%；5月加息75个基点的概率为23.5%，之前为20.9%。美国劳工统计局表示，就业普遍增长，主要是休闲和酒店、专业和商业服务、医疗保健和建筑业的增长。华尔街日报称，这表明在美联储准备加息之际，劳动力市场表现强劲。分析师Carl Riccadonna表示，就业人数增幅如此之大，表明今年的失业率将大幅下降。短期内，这不会让美联储加息50个基点预期升温，尤其是在俄乌危机愈演愈烈的情况下，但它确实会让今年晚些时候的联邦基金状况变得更加严峻。分析师Katia Dmitrieva指出，工资是令员工感到沮丧的一个因素。尽管工资增幅高于预期，但当月工资增幅持平，较上年同期增长5.1%。年度增幅仍是大流行前的两倍多，但远低于任何经济学家的预期。在通胀处于40年高点的情况下，这对个人财务状况来说也是一个潜在的令人担忧的信号。分析师Steve Matthews认为，这份报告似乎很符合美联储希望看到的那种报告。劳动力参与率有了很好的提高，因此供给问题得到了一些缓解，而供给此前一直是雇主方面存在的问题之一。工资增速也有所下降，因此没有多少迹象表明工资会导致通胀螺旋式上升。 此前鲍威尔已经宣布他将支持并提议在3月份的会议上加息25个基点，因此市场普遍这份就业报告基本上对3月份的决定没有任何影响。美联储埃文斯也表示，（就业）报告是个好消息，但不会改变美联储主席鲍威尔的计划。 当前，乌克兰的紧张局势引发了市场对经济滞涨的担忧，加上鲍威尔的谨慎表态，市场不再激进押注美联储加息50个基点，预计美联储今年将加息6次，每次加息幅度为25个基点。不过，高盛态度更加悲观，该机构上调美国通胀预测，并预计美联储2023年的加息次数将超过预期。芝商所执行董事兼资深经济学家Erik Norland指出，不论美联储最终按照哪种路径执行货币政策，对现实的影响都是政策收紧，大方向不会有丝毫改变。分析师认为，如果美联储过快加息和缩表，金价则面临很大调整空间。黄金此前在避险资金的扰动下，上方空间被进一步压缩，因此下方空间远大于上方空间。美国2月非农就业报告中文全文","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"159934":0.6,"161125":0.6,"513500":0.6,"518880":0.6,"DDM":0.6,"UDOW":0.6,"IAU":0.6,"NQmain":0.6,"SImain":1,".SPX":0.6,"IVV":0.6,"DOG":0.6,"MGCmain":1,".DJI":1,"GLD":0.6,"MNQmain":0.6,"QID":0.6,".IXIC":1,"GDX":0.6,"NUGT":0.6,"DJX":0.6,"QQQ":0.6,"SDS":0.6,"TQQQ":0.6,"SGCmain":0.6,"DXD":0.6,"SDOW":0.6,"SSO":0.6,"PSQ":0.6,"SPXU":0.6,"SPY":1,"OEX":0.6,"QLD":0.6,"GCmain":1,"SGUmain":0.6,"UPRO":0.6,"ESmain":0.6,"OEF":0.6,"SQQQ":0.6,"DUST":0.6,"SH":0.6}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1195,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9096017380,"gmtCreate":1644254199295,"gmtModify":1676533905047,"author":{"id":"3581647091503821","authorId":"3581647091503821","name":"谷岳HZ","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3581647091503821","idStr":"3581647091503821"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"nice","listText":"nice","text":"nice","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":5,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9096017380","repostId":"1162481920","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1678,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9012032106,"gmtCreate":1649252301953,"gmtModify":1676534477798,"author":{"id":"3581647091503821","authorId":"3581647091503821","name":"谷岳HZ","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3581647091503821","idStr":"3581647091503821"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"nice","listText":"nice","text":"nice","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9012032106","repostId":"2225953075","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"2225953075","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1649230210,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/2225953075?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2022-04-06 15:30","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"With the release of the Federal Reserve meeting minutes, is accelerated shrinking balance sheet a done deal?","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2225953075","media":"智通财经","summary":"美联储将于北京时间4月7日凌晨2点公布货币政策会议纪要。市场预期届时美联储将披露缩减资产负债表计划的细节。鉴于美国通胀率达40年高点，市场预期美联储将加速缩表进程。同时，市场也将关注美联储进一步加息的","content":"<p><html><head></head><body>The Federal Reserve will release the minutes of its monetary policy meeting at 2:00 a.m. Beijing time on April 7. The market expects the Federal Reserve to disclose details of its balance sheet reduction plan at that time. Given that U.S. inflation has reached a 40-year high, the market expects the Federal Reserve to accelerate its shrinking balance sheet process. Meanwhile, the market will also be watching for clues about further rate hike by the Federal Reserve.</p><p><b>The shrinking balance sheet process may accelerate</b></p><p>Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell said after the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting in March that there would be a “more detailed discussion” on the $8.9 trillion balance sheet. At that meeting, the Federal Reserve announced its first rate hike since 2018.</p><p>The market expects that the Federal Reserve's shrinking balance sheet this time may be faster than during the period from 2017 to 2019.</p><p>California Governor Lael Brainard said on Tuesday that the shrinking balance sheet process could begin as early as May, and much faster than in 2017. It is understood that during the quantitative tightening period from 2017 to 2019, the Federal Reserve began to reduce assets by $10 billion per month, and gradually raised the cap to $50 billion per month a year later.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/26879c67eeb5a52ca248b2f6626b6d19\" tg-width=\"838\" tg-height=\"463\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p>Until last month, Federal Reserve officials stopped buying bonds as soaring inflation accelerated plans to reduce the balance sheet, which was seen as a passive way to tighten monetary policy, complementing rate hike.</p><p>\"They will have a comprehensive plan,\" said Stephen Stanley, chief economist at Amherst Pierpont Securities LLC. \"They want to be ready to announce that plan in May. With inflation so high, this has become an urgent issue.\"</p><p>Economists say the monthly reduction in the asset cap could reach $100 billion, a reduction of about $1 trillion per year.<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/JPM\">JPMorgan Chase</a>Michael Feroli estimates that the caps for U.S. Treasury Bond and mortgage-backed securities (MBS) are $60 billion and $30 billion, respectively, while Krishna Guha of Evercore ISI predicts them to be $50 billion and $30 billion, respectively.<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/DB\">Deutsche Bank</a>It is estimated to be $60 billion and $45 billion respectively.</p><p>With inflation at its highest level since 1982, the Federal Reserve's tapering is likely to peak relatively quickly.</p><p>Aneta Markowska, chief U.S. financial economist at Jefferies LLC, said this could be \"a very short phase, only two months, and there really isn't a need for a long-term phased implementation.\"</p><p><b>rate hike 50 basis points in May?</b></p><p>The impact of balance sheet reduction on the economy is highly uncertain. Powell said shrinking balance sheet \"could be equivalent to rate hike again\". The FOMC is committed to using interest rates rather than assets as its primary monetary policy tool.</p><p>Diane Swonk, chief economist at Grant Thornton, said: \"They do prefer to use rate hike as the main tool for tightening policy. The Fed will adjust its balance sheet if necessary, but for now it wants to focus on interest rates.\"</p><p>Reducing asset size would be the latest move by the Federal Reserve to try to alleviate inflationary pressures. In March of this year, the Federal Reserve raised its key interest rate by 25 basis points to a target range of 0.25% - 0.5%. For the previous two years, the Federal Reserve had kept borrowing costs near zero in order to protect the economy from the impact of the pandemic.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3ebea685008f7e1891449282bd478338\" tg-width=\"805\" tg-height=\"392\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p>The Federal Reserve's dot plot shows that officials expect the median benchmark interest rate to be around 1.9% by the end of 2022, before rising to 2.8% in 2023.</p><p>While shrinking balance sheet details will be the focus of the meeting minutes, investors will also be closely watching for clues about whether the Federal Reserve will rate hike by 50 basis points in May. Powell said on March 22 that he was willing to raise interest rates further at the May meeting if necessary. Since then, other policymakers have expressed the same view.</p><p>Markowska stated, \"I think the issue of 50 basis points in rate hike will be discussed, and at least 'a few' or 'many' participants will be open to rate hike in the coming months.\"</p><p></body></html></p>","source":"stock_zhitongcaijing","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>With the release of the Federal Reserve meeting minutes, is accelerated shrinking balance sheet a done deal?</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nWith the release of the Federal Reserve meeting minutes, is accelerated shrinking balance sheet a done deal?\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">智通财经</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2022-04-06 15:30</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><html><head></head><body>The Federal Reserve will release the minutes of its monetary policy meeting at 2:00 a.m. Beijing time on April 7. The market expects the Federal Reserve to disclose details of its balance sheet reduction plan at that time. Given that U.S. inflation has reached a 40-year high, the market expects the Federal Reserve to accelerate its shrinking balance sheet process. Meanwhile, the market will also be watching for clues about further rate hike by the Federal Reserve.</p><p><b>The shrinking balance sheet process may accelerate</b></p><p>Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell said after the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting in March that there would be a “more detailed discussion” on the $8.9 trillion balance sheet. At that meeting, the Federal Reserve announced its first rate hike since 2018.</p><p>The market expects that the Federal Reserve's shrinking balance sheet this time may be faster than during the period from 2017 to 2019.</p><p>California Governor Lael Brainard said on Tuesday that the shrinking balance sheet process could begin as early as May, and much faster than in 2017. It is understood that during the quantitative tightening period from 2017 to 2019, the Federal Reserve began to reduce assets by $10 billion per month, and gradually raised the cap to $50 billion per month a year later.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/26879c67eeb5a52ca248b2f6626b6d19\" tg-width=\"838\" tg-height=\"463\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p>Until last month, Federal Reserve officials stopped buying bonds as soaring inflation accelerated plans to reduce the balance sheet, which was seen as a passive way to tighten monetary policy, complementing rate hike.</p><p>\"They will have a comprehensive plan,\" said Stephen Stanley, chief economist at Amherst Pierpont Securities LLC. \"They want to be ready to announce that plan in May. With inflation so high, this has become an urgent issue.\"</p><p>Economists say the monthly reduction in the asset cap could reach $100 billion, a reduction of about $1 trillion per year.<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/JPM\">JPMorgan Chase</a>Michael Feroli estimates that the caps for U.S. Treasury Bond and mortgage-backed securities (MBS) are $60 billion and $30 billion, respectively, while Krishna Guha of Evercore ISI predicts them to be $50 billion and $30 billion, respectively.<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/DB\">Deutsche Bank</a>It is estimated to be $60 billion and $45 billion respectively.</p><p>With inflation at its highest level since 1982, the Federal Reserve's tapering is likely to peak relatively quickly.</p><p>Aneta Markowska, chief U.S. financial economist at Jefferies LLC, said this could be \"a very short phase, only two months, and there really isn't a need for a long-term phased implementation.\"</p><p><b>rate hike 50 basis points in May?</b></p><p>The impact of balance sheet reduction on the economy is highly uncertain. Powell said shrinking balance sheet \"could be equivalent to rate hike again\". The FOMC is committed to using interest rates rather than assets as its primary monetary policy tool.</p><p>Diane Swonk, chief economist at Grant Thornton, said: \"They do prefer to use rate hike as the main tool for tightening policy. The Fed will adjust its balance sheet if necessary, but for now it wants to focus on interest rates.\"</p><p>Reducing asset size would be the latest move by the Federal Reserve to try to alleviate inflationary pressures. In March of this year, the Federal Reserve raised its key interest rate by 25 basis points to a target range of 0.25% - 0.5%. For the previous two years, the Federal Reserve had kept borrowing costs near zero in order to protect the economy from the impact of the pandemic.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3ebea685008f7e1891449282bd478338\" tg-width=\"805\" tg-height=\"392\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p>The Federal Reserve's dot plot shows that officials expect the median benchmark interest rate to be around 1.9% by the end of 2022, before rising to 2.8% in 2023.</p><p>While shrinking balance sheet details will be the focus of the meeting minutes, investors will also be closely watching for clues about whether the Federal Reserve will rate hike by 50 basis points in May. Powell said on March 22 that he was willing to raise interest rates further at the May meeting if necessary. Since then, other policymakers have expressed the same view.</p><p>Markowska stated, \"I think the issue of 50 basis points in rate hike will be discussed, and at least 'a few' or 'many' participants will be open to rate hike in the coming months.\"</p><p></body></html></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> source：<a href=\"http://www.zhitongcaijing.com/content/detail/696476.html\">智通财经</a></p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6a1de7aced7748879f251930783a3cb1","relate_stocks":{"161125":"标普500","513500":"标普500ETF博时","DOG":"道指ETF-ProShares做空","BK4581":"高盛持仓","SQQQ":"纳指三倍做空ETF","IVV":"标普500ETF-iShares","SPXU":"三倍做空标普500ETF-ProShares","BK4534":"瑞士信贷持仓","PSQ":"做空纳斯达克100指数ETF-ProShares",".DJI":"道琼斯","DXD":"两倍做空道琼30指数ETF-ProShares",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite","DDM":"2倍做多道指ETF-ProShares","QLD":"2倍做多纳斯达克100指数ETF-ProShares","SPY":"标普500ETF",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index","QID":"两倍做空纳斯达克指数ETF-ProShares","SDOW":"三倍做空道指30ETF-ProShares","SSO":"2倍做多标普500ETF-ProShares","BK4504":"桥水持仓","BK4559":"巴菲特持仓","OEF":"标普100指数ETF-iShares","UPRO":"三倍做多标普500ETF-ProShares","BK4550":"红杉资本持仓","QQQ":"纳指100ETF","TQQQ":"纳指三倍做多ETF","SDS":"两倍做空标普500 ETF-ProShares","OEX":"标普100","SH":"做空标普500-Proshares","DJX":"1/100道琼斯","UDOW":"三倍做多道指30ETF-ProShares"},"source_url":"http://www.zhitongcaijing.com/content/detail/696476.html","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2225953075","content_text":"美联储将于北京时间4月7日凌晨2点公布货币政策会议纪要。市场预期届时美联储将披露缩减资产负债表计划的细节。鉴于美国通胀率达40年高点，市场预期美联储将加速缩表进程。同时，市场也将关注美联储进一步加息的线索。缩表进程或加速美联储主席鲍威尔在3月联邦公开市场委员会(FOMC)会议后表示，将对8.9万亿美元的资产负债表进行“更详细的讨论”。 在那次会议上，美联储宣布自2018年以来首次加息。市场预期，美联储此次的缩表速度可能会比 2017 年至 2019 年期间更快。加州州长Lael Brainard 周二表示，缩表进程最早可能在5月启动，而且比2017年快得多。据悉，在2017年至2019年的量化紧缩时期，美联储开始每月缩减100亿美元资产，一年后逐渐将上限提高到每月缩减500亿美元。直到上个月，美联储官员才停止购买债券，原因是通胀飙升加速了削减资产负债表的计划，这被视为收紧货币政策的一种被动方式，与加息相辅相成。Amherst Pierpont Securities LLC首席经济学家Stephen Stanley表示:“他们将有一个全面的计划。他们希望为能够在5月宣布这一计划做好准备。由于通货膨胀如此之高，这已成为一个紧迫的问题。”经济学家表示，每月缩减资产上限或达1000亿美元，每年减少大约1万亿美元。摩根大通的Michael Feroli估计，美国国债和抵押贷款支持证券(MBS)的上限分别为600亿美元和300亿美元，Evercore ISI的Krishna Guha预计分别为500亿美元和300亿美元，德意志银行预计分别为600亿美元和450亿美元。由于通货膨胀率已达到1982年以来的最高水平，美联储的缩减规模可能会相对较快地达到峰值。Jefferies LLC首席美国金融经济学家Aneta Markowska表示，这可能是“一个非常短的阶段，只有两个月，确实没有必要长期分阶段实施。”5月加息50个基点？缩减资产负债表对经济的影响存在高度不确定性。鲍威尔表示，缩表“可能相当于再次加息”。FOMC 承诺使用利率而非资产作为其主要货币政策工具。Grant Thornton首席经济学家Diane Swonk表示：“他们确实更愿意把加息作为收紧政策的主要工具。美联储将在必要时对资产负债表进行调整，但目前希望将重点放在利率上。”缩减资产规模将是美联储试图缓解通胀压力的最新举措。今年3月，美联储将关键利率上调25个基点，至0.25% - 0.5%的目标区间。此前两年，美联储一直将借贷成本维持在接近于零的水平，以使经济免受疫情影响。美联储的点阵图显示，官员们预计，2022年年底基准利率的中值将在1.9%左右，然后在2023年升至2.8%。尽管缩表细节将成为会议纪要的焦点，但投资者也将仔细寻找美联储是否会在5月加息50个基点的线索。鲍威尔在3月22日表示，如果有必要，他愿意在5月会议上进一步上调利率。此后，其他政策制定者也表达了同样的观点。Markowska称，\"我认为将会讨论加息50个基点的问题，未来几个月至少有‘几个’或‘许多’参与者对加息持开放态度。\"","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"161125":0.6,"513500":0.6,".IXIC":1,"SDOW":0.6,"NQmain":0.6,"SPY":1,"DDM":0.6,"MNQmain":0.6,"DJX":0.6,"QLD":0.6,"QQQ":0.6,"UPRO":0.6,"SQQQ":0.6,".SPX":0.6,"UDOW":0.6,"SSO":0.6,"SH":0.6,"QID":0.6,"PSQ":0.6,"OEX":0.6,"ESmain":0.6,"DXD":0.6,"TQQQ":0.6,"SDS":0.6,".DJI":1,"IVV":0.6,"DOG":0.6,"SPXU":0.6,"OEF":0.6}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1179,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9034991841,"gmtCreate":1647746931413,"gmtModify":1676534262790,"author":{"id":"3581647091503821","authorId":"3581647091503821","name":"谷岳HZ","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3581647091503821","idStr":"3581647091503821"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"nice","listText":"nice","text":"nice","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9034991841","repostId":"2220000701","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1047,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9036198863,"gmtCreate":1647007893581,"gmtModify":1676534186698,"author":{"id":"3581647091503821","authorId":"3581647091503821","name":"谷岳HZ","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3581647091503821","idStr":"3581647091503821"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"nice","listText":"nice","text":"nice","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9036198863","repostId":"1152794275","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1152794275","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1646963681,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1152794275?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2022-03-11 09:54","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"Breaking 7 and approaching 8? How long can US inflation exceed market expectations?","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1152794275","media":"川阅全球宏观","summary":"如油价维持120美元/桶的高位超过2个月，年内美国通胀可能破9%。","content":"<p><html><head></head><body><b>In February 2022, U.S. inflation data hit a 40-year high, with the CPI rising 7.9% year-on-year (7.8% expected) and the core CPI rising 6.4% year-on-year (in line with expectations).</b>Following the data release, the 10-year US Treasury yield jumped 5 basis points, nearly reaching 2%.</p><p>Since the third quarter of 2020, disruptions on both the supply and demand sides have caused US inflation to continue to exceed expectations. At the beginning of 2022, unexpected factors increased, with the Ukraine crisis and US and European sanctions against Russia triggering a surge in commodities such as crude oil.<b>Therefore, the probability of US inflation exceeding expectations remains high. According to our model, in extreme cases, if oil prices remain at a high level of $120 per barrel for more than two months, US inflation may break through 9% this year.</b></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c5b78af5c0a8280ee85c36ace3e52246\" tg-width=\"896\" tg-height=\"501\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><b>This article explores the trend of US inflation from three dimensions:</b></p><p>First, soaring US inflation has repeatedly exceeded market expectations. As shown in Figure 1, since August 2020,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/C\">Citi</a>The U.S. inflation surprise index has remained positive and hit a new high in nearly 20 years. Since the end of 2021, catalyzed by various unexpected factors such as the Ukraine crisis, the index has surged. Even if there is a slight short-term correction, it only lasted for a month. Looking at the core CPI figures, since the beginning of 2022, the jump in US inflation has clearly exceeded the trend of the early stages of the Great Inflation in the late 1960s, and market concerns about stagflation have intensified (Figure 2).</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/af3758f5d4fcb1fd71370e6ef62a72b6\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"651\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4fff0c41a536000b5ccbe4275579ec75\" tg-width=\"896\" tg-height=\"557\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><b>So how long will US inflation exceed market expectations, and by what magnitude?</b></p><p><b>On the one hand, it depends on the additional inflationary risks brought about by the situation in Ukraine.</b>Given Russia's important position in global commodity markets, US and European sanctions against Russia may further push up commodity prices (Figure 3). The sanctions imposed by the UK and the US on Russian oil have had the most significant impact on the US CPI. According to our model, if WTI crude oil averages $120 per barrel in March and April, the US CPI will break through 8.5% in March and 9% in April. With oil and natural gas prices unlikely to fall, the high level of the US CPI is likely to remain high and will not ease until 2023.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a5d8979cbd501ea1f9caaeb0a215f631\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"636\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7a5d4ba9997e1bd852f31f3e2d2aa285\" tg-width=\"914\" tg-height=\"511\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><b>However, the impact of commodity prices on the US core CPI may be limited.</b>Our model shows that the US core CPI may peak at the end of the first quarter of 2022 and is expected to fall below 4% by the end of the year (Figure 5).</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/fbd1458cbc6a7d828aa1b26f434d4288\" tg-width=\"910\" tg-height=\"512\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><b>Finally, from a risk perspective, the surge in US inflation is driven by both supply and demand, and the subsequent impact of supply and demand may be split 60-40.</b></p><p><b>On the supply side, on the one hand</b>Although used car price growth slowed in February, the slow easing of the chip shortage may keep prices high, and rising electricity prices may impact the supply of metal raw materials.</p><p><b>On the other hand, given the shortage of labor supply,</b>The wage-price spiral has become apparent. In 2022, the Atlanta Federal Reserve's hourly wage growth tracker hit a new high since 1998; Looking at different industries, although the month-on-month growth rate of some industries has slowed down, the average year-on-year growth rate of all industries has generally exceeded 4%, while the average year-on-year growth rate of the leisure and hotel industries has remained at a high level of nearly 12% (Figures 6-7).</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f807fbe88a5fbbe5b9fc73c9322643d8\" tg-width=\"910\" tg-height=\"528\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/96f635c76b003e82355531c0deeb0969\" tg-width=\"903\" tg-height=\"568\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><b>Demand side,</b>The year-on-year growth rate of housing rents has soared from less than 2% in March 2021 to 4.2% in February 2022 (Figure 9). According to our analysis of historical data, the S&P U.S. Home Price Index, as a leading indicator of rents, is about 15 months ahead of rents. The index peaked and fell back in August 2021. We expect the decline in housing rent growth to occur in early 2023.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/582511db4c3d0059cd7c8bf61b820afc\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"461\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><b>In terms of assets, since Russia entered Ukraine, funds have flowed into the bond market driven by risk aversion.</b>Implied inflation expectations for 10-year US Treasury bonds have risen, real interest rates have turned downward, and the yield spread between 10-year and 2-year US Treasury bonds has accelerated to less than 30 basis points (Figures 10-11). With US core inflation growth in line with market expectations in February, the rise in short-term 2-year US Treasury yields was almost the same as that in long-term 10-year US Treasury yields, and the spread between 10-year and 2-year US Treasury yields remained at around 25 basis points.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2c5218240392b3b586a446ae667f4287\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"605\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1858ce699b90521c7fcd984f59001819\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"606\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><b>Risk Warning:</b>The COVID-19 virus mutation caused vaccines to become ineffective, and a surge in confirmed cases led to the economy returning to lockdown. The out-of-control situation in Ukraine has caused sharp fluctuations in commodity prices, and soaring inflation in the United States has forced the Federal Reserve to significantly accelerate its tightening pace.</p><p></body></html></p>","source":"lsy1582083733592","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Breaking 7 and approaching 8? How long can US inflation exceed market expectations?</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nBreaking 7 and approaching 8? How long can US inflation exceed market expectations?\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">川阅全球宏观</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2022-03-11 09:54</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><html><head></head><body><b>In February 2022, U.S. inflation data hit a 40-year high, with the CPI rising 7.9% year-on-year (7.8% expected) and the core CPI rising 6.4% year-on-year (in line with expectations).</b>Following the data release, the 10-year US Treasury yield jumped 5 basis points, nearly reaching 2%.</p><p>Since the third quarter of 2020, disruptions on both the supply and demand sides have caused US inflation to continue to exceed expectations. At the beginning of 2022, unexpected factors increased, with the Ukraine crisis and US and European sanctions against Russia triggering a surge in commodities such as crude oil.<b>Therefore, the probability of US inflation exceeding expectations remains high. According to our model, in extreme cases, if oil prices remain at a high level of $120 per barrel for more than two months, US inflation may break through 9% this year.</b></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c5b78af5c0a8280ee85c36ace3e52246\" tg-width=\"896\" tg-height=\"501\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><b>This article explores the trend of US inflation from three dimensions:</b></p><p>First, soaring US inflation has repeatedly exceeded market expectations. As shown in Figure 1, since August 2020,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/C\">Citi</a>The U.S. inflation surprise index has remained positive and hit a new high in nearly 20 years. Since the end of 2021, catalyzed by various unexpected factors such as the Ukraine crisis, the index has surged. Even if there is a slight short-term correction, it only lasted for a month. Looking at the core CPI figures, since the beginning of 2022, the jump in US inflation has clearly exceeded the trend of the early stages of the Great Inflation in the late 1960s, and market concerns about stagflation have intensified (Figure 2).</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/af3758f5d4fcb1fd71370e6ef62a72b6\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"651\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4fff0c41a536000b5ccbe4275579ec75\" tg-width=\"896\" tg-height=\"557\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><b>So how long will US inflation exceed market expectations, and by what magnitude?</b></p><p><b>On the one hand, it depends on the additional inflationary risks brought about by the situation in Ukraine.</b>Given Russia's important position in global commodity markets, US and European sanctions against Russia may further push up commodity prices (Figure 3). The sanctions imposed by the UK and the US on Russian oil have had the most significant impact on the US CPI. According to our model, if WTI crude oil averages $120 per barrel in March and April, the US CPI will break through 8.5% in March and 9% in April. With oil and natural gas prices unlikely to fall, the high level of the US CPI is likely to remain high and will not ease until 2023.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a5d8979cbd501ea1f9caaeb0a215f631\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"636\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7a5d4ba9997e1bd852f31f3e2d2aa285\" tg-width=\"914\" tg-height=\"511\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><b>However, the impact of commodity prices on the US core CPI may be limited.</b>Our model shows that the US core CPI may peak at the end of the first quarter of 2022 and is expected to fall below 4% by the end of the year (Figure 5).</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/fbd1458cbc6a7d828aa1b26f434d4288\" tg-width=\"910\" tg-height=\"512\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><b>Finally, from a risk perspective, the surge in US inflation is driven by both supply and demand, and the subsequent impact of supply and demand may be split 60-40.</b></p><p><b>On the supply side, on the one hand</b>Although used car price growth slowed in February, the slow easing of the chip shortage may keep prices high, and rising electricity prices may impact the supply of metal raw materials.</p><p><b>On the other hand, given the shortage of labor supply,</b>The wage-price spiral has become apparent. In 2022, the Atlanta Federal Reserve's hourly wage growth tracker hit a new high since 1998; Looking at different industries, although the month-on-month growth rate of some industries has slowed down, the average year-on-year growth rate of all industries has generally exceeded 4%, while the average year-on-year growth rate of the leisure and hotel industries has remained at a high level of nearly 12% (Figures 6-7).</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f807fbe88a5fbbe5b9fc73c9322643d8\" tg-width=\"910\" tg-height=\"528\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/96f635c76b003e82355531c0deeb0969\" tg-width=\"903\" tg-height=\"568\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><b>Demand side,</b>The year-on-year growth rate of housing rents has soared from less than 2% in March 2021 to 4.2% in February 2022 (Figure 9). According to our analysis of historical data, the S&P U.S. Home Price Index, as a leading indicator of rents, is about 15 months ahead of rents. The index peaked and fell back in August 2021. We expect the decline in housing rent growth to occur in early 2023.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/582511db4c3d0059cd7c8bf61b820afc\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"461\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><b>In terms of assets, since Russia entered Ukraine, funds have flowed into the bond market driven by risk aversion.</b>Implied inflation expectations for 10-year US Treasury bonds have risen, real interest rates have turned downward, and the yield spread between 10-year and 2-year US Treasury bonds has accelerated to less than 30 basis points (Figures 10-11). With US core inflation growth in line with market expectations in February, the rise in short-term 2-year US Treasury yields was almost the same as that in long-term 10-year US Treasury yields, and the spread between 10-year and 2-year US Treasury yields remained at around 25 basis points.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2c5218240392b3b586a446ae667f4287\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"605\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1858ce699b90521c7fcd984f59001819\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"606\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><b>Risk Warning:</b>The COVID-19 virus mutation caused vaccines to become ineffective, and a surge in confirmed cases led to the economy returning to lockdown. The out-of-control situation in Ukraine has caused sharp fluctuations in commodity prices, and soaring inflation in the United States has forced the Federal Reserve to significantly accelerate its tightening pace.</p><p></body></html></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> source：<a href=\"https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s/loyhU02SnG3Vg04am10smw\">川阅全球宏观</a></p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/627bc890436e46f74a0fe8143398a725","relate_stocks":{".DJI":"道琼斯"},"source_url":"https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s/loyhU02SnG3Vg04am10smw","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1152794275","content_text":"2022年2月美国通胀数据刷新40年来新高，CPI同比增7.9%（预期7.8%）、核心CPI同比增幅6.4%（持平于预期）。数据发布后10年期美债利率跳升5bps，险些站上2%。2020年三季度以来，供需两侧的扰动使得美国通胀持续超预期，2022年开年意外因素又增多，乌克兰危机、美欧对俄制裁引发原油等大宗商品的暴涨。如此看来，后续美国通胀超预期概率依旧较大，根据我们的模型，极端情况下，如油价维持120美元/桶的高位超过2个月，年内美国通胀可能破9%。在本文从三个维度对美国通胀的态势进行了探讨：首先是美国通胀飙升屡超市场预期。如图1所示，2020年8月以来，花旗的美国通胀意外指数持续为正并且创近20年来新高，2021年末以来，在乌克兰危机等各种意外因素的催化下，该指数飙升态势骤升，即便短期稍有回调，也仅持续一个月。而从核心CPI的数值上看，2022年初以来，美国通胀的跳升俨然已超过20世纪60年代末大通胀初期的态势，市场对于滞涨的担忧加剧（图2）。那么美国通胀超市场预期将持续多久、幅度又会有多大？一方面取决于乌克兰局势带来的额外的通胀风险。鉴于俄罗斯在全球大宗商品市场中占有重要地位，美欧对于俄罗斯的制裁可能进一步推高大宗商品的价格（图3）。而英美对于俄罗斯石油的制裁对于美国CPI的影响最为显著，根据我们的模型，如果WTI原油在3月、4月的均价录得120美元/桶，美国3月CPI将突破8.5%，4月CPI将破9%。在油价和天然气价格难以回落的背景下，美国CPI的高位可能仍将持续，直至2023年才能有所缓解。不过，大宗价格对于美国核心CPI的影响可能有限。我们的模型显示，美国核心CPI或在2022年一季度末见顶，并有望在年末回落至低于4%（图5）。最后，从风险的维度来看，美国通胀飙升是供需两侧推动的，后续供需的影响可能6、4分成。供给侧，一方面，尽管2月二手车价格增速放缓，但芯片短缺缓解缓慢可能使得其价格持续处于高位，此外电价上涨可能冲击金属原材料的供给。另一方面，劳动力供给的短缺下，工资-物价螺旋式上升已显现。2022年亚特兰大联储的时薪增速跟踪指标创1998年以来的新高；分行业来看，尽管部分行业的环比增速有所回落，但是各行业同比增速均值普遍破4%，休闲和酒店业同比增速均值仍维持近12%的高位（图6-图7）。需求侧，住房租金同比增速已经从2021年3月的不足2%飙升至2022年2月的4.2%（图9），根据我们对于历史数据的分析，标普美国房价指数作为房租的先行指标，约领先房租15个月，该指数于2021年8月见顶回落，我们预计住房租金增速的回落要到2023年初。资产方面，俄罗斯进军乌克兰以来，避险情绪驱动下资金流入债市。10年期美债隐含的通胀预期上升，实际利率转为下行，而10Y-2Y美债利差加速下行至不足30bps（图10-图11）。2月美国核心通胀增速与市场预期持平下，短端2年期美债利率升幅与长端10年期美债几乎持平，10Y-2Y美债利差维持在25bps左右的水平。风险提示：新冠病毒变异导致疫苗失效，确诊病例大爆发导致经济重回封锁；乌克兰局势失控造成大宗商品价格剧烈波动，美国通胀急升倒逼美联储大幅加快紧缩节奏。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{".DJI":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":951,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9038364491,"gmtCreate":1646746773301,"gmtModify":1676534157474,"author":{"id":"3581647091503821","authorId":"3581647091503821","name":"谷岳HZ","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3581647091503821","idStr":"3581647091503821"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"nice","listText":"nice","text":"nice","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9038364491","repostId":"1145569107","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1453,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9031468629,"gmtCreate":1646646790129,"gmtModify":1676534146486,"author":{"id":"3581647091503821","authorId":"3581647091503821","name":"谷岳HZ","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3581647091503821","idStr":"3581647091503821"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"nice","listText":"nice","text":"nice","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9031468629","repostId":"1169491857","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1169491857","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1646626454,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1169491857?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2022-03-07 12:14","market":"hk","language":"zh","title":"Bank of America: Next is a global recession, and then QE5 will arrive.","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1169491857","media":"金十数据","summary":"美联储和欧洲央行现在正绝望地陷入资本市场通货紧缩和主要市场通货膨胀之间。俄乌局势及相关制裁持续升级，市场对经济滞涨的担忧也在不断加剧。美国银行首席投资策略师Michael Hartnett警告称，尽管","content":"<p><html><head></head><body>The Federal Reserve and the European Central Bank are now desperately caught between deflation in capital markets and inflation in major markets. The situation between Russia and Ukraine and related sanctions continue to escalate, and market concerns about economic stagflation are also intensifying. Bank of America Chief Investment Strategist Michael Hartnett warned,<b>Although the Federal Reserve is still putting on a brave face, pretending to have rate hike \"six or seven times,\" the threat of a global economic recession is looming as oil prices soar and financial market \"bleeding\" incidents occur frequently.</b></p><p>With this in mind, the Bank of America strategist pointed out that it is too early to price a policy shift by the Federal Reserve or the European Central Bank.<b>\"When the S&P 500 index<3800-4000点，IG CDX >At 100 basis points, QE5 will arrive.</b>Hartnett suggests that investors should take maximum defensive measures before the Federal Reserve lowers interest rates.</p><p>Hartnett concluded in his report:</p><p>\"The Russia-Ukraine conflict means a greater inflationary shock, a smaller interest rate shock, and a greater recessionary shock, while the Federal Reserve and the European Central Bank find themselves in a dilemma.\" Undoubtedly,<b>War means inflation.</b>This year, the market witnessed the strongest commodity price index since 1915. Coal and aluminum prices hit record highs, while oil and wheat prices surged to their highest levels since 2008.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9dd0ecc59c199e3bba04e70b70eea834\" tg-width=\"807\" tg-height=\"614\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p><b>War will bring economic stagflation.</b>When the oil crisis broke out in 1973, only commodities outperformed inflation. Wall Street suffered a sharp decline, with the S&P 500 falling to a -40% low. Technology stocks, consumer stocks, banking stocks, and small-cap stocks plummeted, and stagflation severely dragged down the U.S. economy.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6babd3d6d3e566a0086c204fc2195b78\" tg-width=\"1037\" tg-height=\"645\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p>At the time, the Federal Reserve initially chose to continue tightening policy, but oil prices did not reverse in 1974 and remained at a structurally high level. In the end,<b>The recession only ended after the Federal Reserve cut its Federal Funds rate from 14% to 3%.</b></p><p>A wave of sell-offs surged in.</p><p>Markets also appear to be beginning to sense impending stagflation, as evidenced by record capital outflows in European stock markets and the largest inflows of energy and materials capital in years.</p><p>Data shows that as of the week ending March 2, a staggering $46.3 billion flowed into cash, the largest inflow in nine weeks, while $1.9 billion flowed into gold. $5 billion was withdrawn from stocks, marking the first capital outflow in 10 weeks, with European stock markets experiencing the largest capital outflow in history ($600 million). $10.6 billion withdrew from the bond market, of which $1.6 billion flowed out of emerging market bonds, the largest outflow since March 21 last year. The outflow of funds from mortgage-backed bonds was the largest since March 20 last year. Hartnett warned that this was just an early wave of selling, with more to come. Bank of America's ultra-high-net-worth private clients are still insisting on buying on dips. The market is still filled with voices such as \"the Federal Reserve will become dovish,\" \"liquidity remains ample,\" \"stocks are oversold,\" \"a tradable rebound,\" \"buy large tech stocks,\" and \"there is no recession in the United States,\" among others.</p><p>Although investors recognize external shocks, they do not believe they will reduce returns.<b>Insufficient liquidity will only force investors to sell their holdings when liquidity shifts.</b>Hartnett believes this will happen in a few weeks, when the Federal Reserve's rate hike will be released, followed by the start of the shrinking balance sheet.</p><p>Unlike optimistic clients, Bank of America strategists believe that as investors liquidate ahead of schedule, the turmoil brought about by geopolitical policies will once again sweep through financial and foreign exchange reserves.</p><p>At the same time, credit spreads are widening, volatility is rising, and market confidence in the 2022 bull market is disappearing.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/308def26f84135aad8cc2172f6fbdedb\" tg-width=\"768\" tg-height=\"464\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p>The \"collapse\" of consensus</p><p>Hartnett points out that investors will next see an approaching recession, and an economic recession has become a consensus: the market generally expects GDP/EPS (earnings per share) to decline further; The US GDP is projected to be 3.7% in 2022, 4.0% in the EU, 8.3% in the US stock market, and 4.7% in Europe in 2022.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ca77d10a0ec4568266b6dd5b749b3d6a\" tg-width=\"1020\" tg-height=\"1199\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p>Meanwhile, the U.S. economy is effectively splitting in two, with U.S. retail sales still 24% above pre-COVID-19 levels, although the savings rate has reached 2019 levels.<b>Residents' real incomes are declining.</b></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d0d023a53f944acc7950a4631e9f133d\" tg-width=\"866\" tg-height=\"335\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p>With inflation soaring, Bank of America predicts that if real wage growth in the United States remains negative before the summer recession, then it is certain that a recession is now brewing. February non-farm payrolls data showed that hourly wages unexpectedly slowed, and wage growth is unlikely to continue at such a rapid pace.</p><p>However, the stock market may not necessarily fall sharply.<b>Any news about the easing of the Russia-Ukraine conflict will lead to a sharp rebound in risk assets.</b>, Hartnett said:</p><p>\"The sell-off will be chaotic. The Federal Reserve and the European Central Bank are now desperately caught between capital market deflation and major market inflation.\"</body></html></p>","source":"jssj","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Bank of America: Next is a global recession, and then QE5 will arrive.</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nBank of America: Next is a global recession, and then QE5 will arrive.\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">金十数据</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2022-03-07 12:14</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><html><head></head><body>The Federal Reserve and the European Central Bank are now desperately caught between deflation in capital markets and inflation in major markets. The situation between Russia and Ukraine and related sanctions continue to escalate, and market concerns about economic stagflation are also intensifying. Bank of America Chief Investment Strategist Michael Hartnett warned,<b>Although the Federal Reserve is still putting on a brave face, pretending to have rate hike \"six or seven times,\" the threat of a global economic recession is looming as oil prices soar and financial market \"bleeding\" incidents occur frequently.</b></p><p>With this in mind, the Bank of America strategist pointed out that it is too early to price a policy shift by the Federal Reserve or the European Central Bank.<b>\"When the S&P 500 index<3800-4000点，IG CDX >At 100 basis points, QE5 will arrive.</b>Hartnett suggests that investors should take maximum defensive measures before the Federal Reserve lowers interest rates.</p><p>Hartnett concluded in his report:</p><p>\"The Russia-Ukraine conflict means a greater inflationary shock, a smaller interest rate shock, and a greater recessionary shock, while the Federal Reserve and the European Central Bank find themselves in a dilemma.\" Undoubtedly,<b>War means inflation.</b>This year, the market witnessed the strongest commodity price index since 1915. Coal and aluminum prices hit record highs, while oil and wheat prices surged to their highest levels since 2008.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9dd0ecc59c199e3bba04e70b70eea834\" tg-width=\"807\" tg-height=\"614\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p><b>War will bring economic stagflation.</b>When the oil crisis broke out in 1973, only commodities outperformed inflation. Wall Street suffered a sharp decline, with the S&P 500 falling to a -40% low. Technology stocks, consumer stocks, banking stocks, and small-cap stocks plummeted, and stagflation severely dragged down the U.S. economy.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6babd3d6d3e566a0086c204fc2195b78\" tg-width=\"1037\" tg-height=\"645\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p>At the time, the Federal Reserve initially chose to continue tightening policy, but oil prices did not reverse in 1974 and remained at a structurally high level. In the end,<b>The recession only ended after the Federal Reserve cut its Federal Funds rate from 14% to 3%.</b></p><p>A wave of sell-offs surged in.</p><p>Markets also appear to be beginning to sense impending stagflation, as evidenced by record capital outflows in European stock markets and the largest inflows of energy and materials capital in years.</p><p>Data shows that as of the week ending March 2, a staggering $46.3 billion flowed into cash, the largest inflow in nine weeks, while $1.9 billion flowed into gold. $5 billion was withdrawn from stocks, marking the first capital outflow in 10 weeks, with European stock markets experiencing the largest capital outflow in history ($600 million). $10.6 billion withdrew from the bond market, of which $1.6 billion flowed out of emerging market bonds, the largest outflow since March 21 last year. The outflow of funds from mortgage-backed bonds was the largest since March 20 last year. Hartnett warned that this was just an early wave of selling, with more to come. Bank of America's ultra-high-net-worth private clients are still insisting on buying on dips. The market is still filled with voices such as \"the Federal Reserve will become dovish,\" \"liquidity remains ample,\" \"stocks are oversold,\" \"a tradable rebound,\" \"buy large tech stocks,\" and \"there is no recession in the United States,\" among others.</p><p>Although investors recognize external shocks, they do not believe they will reduce returns.<b>Insufficient liquidity will only force investors to sell their holdings when liquidity shifts.</b>Hartnett believes this will happen in a few weeks, when the Federal Reserve's rate hike will be released, followed by the start of the shrinking balance sheet.</p><p>Unlike optimistic clients, Bank of America strategists believe that as investors liquidate ahead of schedule, the turmoil brought about by geopolitical policies will once again sweep through financial and foreign exchange reserves.</p><p>At the same time, credit spreads are widening, volatility is rising, and market confidence in the 2022 bull market is disappearing.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/308def26f84135aad8cc2172f6fbdedb\" tg-width=\"768\" tg-height=\"464\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p>The \"collapse\" of consensus</p><p>Hartnett points out that investors will next see an approaching recession, and an economic recession has become a consensus: the market generally expects GDP/EPS (earnings per share) to decline further; The US GDP is projected to be 3.7% in 2022, 4.0% in the EU, 8.3% in the US stock market, and 4.7% in Europe in 2022.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ca77d10a0ec4568266b6dd5b749b3d6a\" tg-width=\"1020\" tg-height=\"1199\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p>Meanwhile, the U.S. economy is effectively splitting in two, with U.S. retail sales still 24% above pre-COVID-19 levels, although the savings rate has reached 2019 levels.<b>Residents' real incomes are declining.</b></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d0d023a53f944acc7950a4631e9f133d\" tg-width=\"866\" tg-height=\"335\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p>With inflation soaring, Bank of America predicts that if real wage growth in the United States remains negative before the summer recession, then it is certain that a recession is now brewing. February non-farm payrolls data showed that hourly wages unexpectedly slowed, and wage growth is unlikely to continue at such a rapid pace.</p><p>However, the stock market may not necessarily fall sharply.<b>Any news about the easing of the Russia-Ukraine conflict will lead to a sharp rebound in risk assets.</b>, Hartnett said:</p><p>\"The sell-off will be chaotic. The Federal Reserve and the European Central Bank are now desperately caught between capital market deflation and major market inflation.\"</body></html></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> source：<a href=\"https://xnews.jin10.com/details/90915\">金十数据</a></p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/082208e3c37780dd55878056410ffa43","relate_stocks":{},"source_url":"https://xnews.jin10.com/details/90915","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1169491857","content_text":"美联储和欧洲央行现在正绝望地陷入资本市场通货紧缩和主要市场通货膨胀之间。俄乌局势及相关制裁持续升级，市场对经济滞涨的担忧也在不断加剧。美国银行首席投资策略师Michael Hartnett警告称，尽管美联储仍在打肿脸充胖子，假装将加息“六七次”，但随着油价飙升以及金融市场“流血”事故频繁发生，全球经济衰退的威胁正在逼近。考虑到这一点，这位美国银行策略师指出，现在为美联储或欧洲央行的政策转向定价还为时过早，“当标普500指数<3800-4000点，IG CDX >100个基点时，QE5就会到来”。Hartnett建议，在美联储还没有下调利率的情况下，投资者应该采取最大的防御措施。Hartnett在报告中总结道：“俄罗斯-乌克兰冲突意味着更大的通胀冲击、更小的利率冲击、更大的衰退冲击，而美联储和欧洲央行发现自己陷入了两难境地。”毫无疑问，战争意味着通货膨胀。今年，市场见证了自1915年以来最强劲的大宗商品价格指数。煤炭和铝的价格创下历史新高、石油和小麦价格飙升至2008年以来最高水平。战争会带来经济滞涨。1973年石油危机爆发时，只有大宗商品表现优于通胀。华尔街遭受重挫，标普指数跌入了-40%的谷底，科技股、消费股、银行股、小盘股暴跌，滞涨严重拖累了美国经济。当时，美联储最初仍选择继续收紧政策，但油价在1974年并未发生逆转，依旧保持结构性高位。最终，经济衰退还是在美联储将联邦基金利率从14%下调至3%之后才结束了。抛售潮汹涌而来市场似乎也开始嗅出即将到来的滞胀，这从欧洲股市创纪录的资金流出以及多年来最大的能源和材料资金流入就可以看出。数据显示，截至3月2日当周，高达463亿美元的资金流向了现金，为9周以来的最大流入量，同时有19亿美元流入黄金；50亿美元从股票中撤出，为10周内的第一次出现资金流出，其中欧洲股市遭遇了有史以来最大的资金外流（6亿美元）；106亿美元从债市撤出，其中16亿美元从新兴市场债券流出，去年3月21日以来最大流出量。抵押支持债券的资金流出量创去年3月20日以来最多。Hartnett警告，这只是一波早期的抛售潮，更多的抛售即将到来。美国银行的超高净值私人客户仍坚持逢低买入。市场仍充斥这样的声音：“美联储将变得鸽派”，“流动性依旧充足”、“股票超卖”、“可交易反弹”、“购买大型科技股”、“美国没有衰退”等等。尽管投资者认识到外部冲击，但他们并不认为会减少收益。只有当流动性转变时，流动性不足才会迫使投资者出售他们持有的资产。Hartnett认为，这将在几周后发生，届时美联储加息落地，紧接着就是开始缩表。与乐观的客户不同，美银策略师认为，随着投资者将提前进行清盘，地缘政策带来的动荡将再一次席卷金融、外汇储备。与此同时，信贷利差正在扩大，波动性正在走高，市场对2022年牛市的信心正在消失。共识的“崩溃”Hartnett指出，投资者接下来将看到不断逼近的衰退，经济衰退已成为共识：市场普遍预计GDP/EPS（每股盈利）将进一步下行；2022年美国GDP预计为3.7%，欧盟为4.0%，2022美国股市EPS为8.3%，欧洲为4.7%。与此同时，美国经济实际上正在一分为二，美国零售额仍高于新冠疫情前24%的水平，尽管储蓄率已达到2019年的水平，但居民的实际收入正在下滑。随着通货膨胀飙升，美银预测，如果美国实际工资增长在夏季美国经济衰退之前仍然为负，那么可以肯定，经济衰退现在正在酝酿之中。2月的非农就业数据显示，时薪出人意料地趋于平缓，工资增长恐怕不能持续以迅猛的速度增长。不过，股市也不一定会直线下跌，任何有关俄罗斯-乌克兰冲突缓和的消息都将导致风险资产出现大幅反弹，Hartnett表示：“抛售将是混乱的。美联储和欧洲央行现在正绝望地陷入资本市场通货紧缩和主要市场通货膨胀之间。”","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1675,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0}],"lives":[]}