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2021-05-13
Kuai le
The biggest stock market crash in the history of US stocks is not far away? Legendary investors warn again
YangyiYY
2021-04-26
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2021-04-23
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for good ","listText":"Here for good ","text":"Here for good","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":2,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/197730761","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2025,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":191222827,"gmtCreate":1620882470069,"gmtModify":1704349858812,"author":{"id":"3581802411373035","authorId":"3581802411373035","name":"YangyiYY","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0ba17e7506a9f4370cddd0dc403cfb09","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3581802411373035","idStr":"3581802411373035"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Kuai le","listText":"Kuai le","text":"Kuai le","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":4,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/191222827","repostId":"1155177385","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1155177385","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1620867290,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1155177385?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2021-05-13 08:54","market":"hk","language":"zh","title":"The biggest stock market crash in the history of US stocks is not far away? Legendary investors warn again","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1155177385","media":"腾讯美股","summary":"传奇投资人格兰瑟姆表示，总之，一切都和2000年非常相似，相似到离奇的地步。当然，这并不意味着一切都将在明天崩塌。事情的真实发展逻辑就是，首先，那些最为疯狂的，已经彻底和基本面脱钩的领域，信心开始消退","content":"<p>Grantham, a legendary investor, said that in short, everything is very similar to 2000, to the point of bizarre similarity. Of course, that doesn't mean everything will collapse tomorrow. The real development logic of things is that, first of all, in those craziest areas that have been completely decoupled from fundamentals, confidence begins to fade, and then its influence gradually penetrates into other areas, and eventually spreads to the entire market.</p><p>Legendary investor Jeremy Grantham (Jeremy Grantham) once accurately predicted the bursting of the bubbles in 2000 and 2008, and recently he made the latest prediction. Grantham said that the current market reminds him of the Internet bubble. He listed four indicators that the biggest stock market crash in history is not far away.</p><p>In January of this year, Grantham announced that \"the long bull market since 2009 has finally entered a mature stage and developed into an epic bubble.\" He also said that history has proved that before the final crash comes, there will be a \"massive surge in madness\" in the market.</p><p>The founder of Boston asset management firm Grantham, Mayo, van Otterloo & Co. has accurately predicted many bubbles and bursts in history, such as the Japanese asset price bubble in 1989, the technology bubble in 2000, and the real estate bubble in 2008. wait.</p><p>\"The essence of a bubble is that as long as you can find more money and crazier investors, it can keep blowing.\"</p><p>Grantham commented that in the fourth quarter of last year, the market was already full of \"extreme valuations, explosive gains, crazy stock offerings, and hysterical speculation\", and by the first quarter of this year, all this escalated into a series of landmark major events.</p><p>From<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/GME\">GameStop</a>The stock's bitter short squeeze, to Dogecoin's jaw-dropping rally, to the frenzy surrounding special purpose acquisition companies (SPACs) are the latest evidence. SPACs have raised $101.5 billion so far this year, exceeding the $83.4 billion raised for the whole of last year and higher than the sum of the previous seven years.</p><p>Like 2000</p><p>For Grantham, the current frenzy and hysteria make him unable to recall the original technology bubble, and now, cracks have begun to appear in the SPAC market-with changes in investor sentiment, severe oversupply, and increased regulatory authorities With scrutiny, the IPOX SPAC index has fallen by as much as 23% from its peak in February.</p><p>Although Grantham owns a Model 3 himself, he objectively points out that,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TSLA\">Tesla</a>The plunge in stock prices is also one of the evidence that the market frenzy has cooled down. The electric car company's stock rose nearly eightfold in 2020, and now, despite two consecutive quarters of positive earnings, it can't stop the stock's price from falling 24% from its January peak.</p><p>\"In short, everything is very similar to 2000, strangely similar. Of course, this doesn't mean that everything will collapse tomorrow.\"</p><p>In Grantham's view, the bursting process of the bubble is divided into two stages. The first stage is slow, while the second stage is the sudden and simultaneous collapse of everything. For example, in 2000, the starting point of the collapse of Pets.com's stock price in March, then gradually spread to those smaller star technology stocks in April, developed to mid-cap stocks in June, and finally in July It was the turn of the company that was once the world's largest market value at that time<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/CSCO\">Cisco</a>。</p><p>By September, the technology sector, which accounted for as much as 30% of the market at that time, had fallen by 50% as a whole. However, the S&P 500 index has not changed much, and investors are beginning to feel at ease. They feel that this is actually just a normal sector rotation.</p><p>\"The real development logic of things is that, first of all, in those craziest areas that have been completely decoupled from fundamentals, confidence begins to fade, and then its influence gradually penetrates into other areas, and eventually spreads to the entire market.\"</p><p>In September, the drums of passing flowers finally stopped completely, and the 70% market that had not been affected before could no longer be immune. In the next two years, the market fell by 50%.</p><p>\"It's like a termite colony, biting a little bit, and eventually the whole situation becomes unmanageable,\" Grantham concluded. \"When the termite colony has completely occupied an entire area, they will head for the rest of the market.\"</p><p>Four indicators</p><p>Grantham estimates that this time, due to the staggering fiscal stimulus plan and the widespread rollout of vaccines, the current bubble is entirely likely to last longer.</p><p>However, the final result will not change at all. Sooner or later, asset prices will return to reasonable levels, and investors will enter a much more pessimistic stage sooner or later. \"All in all, the higher you climb, the harder you fall.\"</p><p>Grantham cited the classic example of Japan, which staged the most exaggerated stock market bubble of all developed countries in the 1980s.</p><p>At that time, the overall P/E of the Nikkei index had reached 65, but everyone seemed to believe that this was what it should be. \"The bubble is so huge that the result is that thirty-two years have passed now, and the Japanese stock market still hasn't returned to the level of 1989.\"</p><p>As we all know, the whole asset price bubble in Japan finally burst in 1991, and then Japan entered the mode of \"lost decade\", and its economic growth stagnated for a long time. Grantham commented that when studying bubbles, the reverse wealth effect caused by their bursting cannot be ignored.</p><p>Although the bursting of the Internet bubble hit the U.S. stock market hard, its negative impact on the real economy of the United States was limited and soon disappeared. However, the 2008 financial crisis was different. It was not only the stock market that was severely hit, but also those buyers who were deeply mired in the real estate bubble.</p><p>Now, the housing market is overheating again, which is full of danger. Many indicators of housing market activity have reached the level on the eve of the bubble bursting in 2008.</p><p>\"We can look at the housing inventory numbers and see the amount of money available in that system,\" Grantham notes. \"It's almost certain that within the next few months, the U.S. housing market will surpass its all-time high in 2006.\"</p><p>Another indicator with a red light is the bond market. With sovereign bonds in many countries around the world turning negative interest rates-meaning that investors have to discount interest when lending money to governments-the price of bonds is actually much more expensive than stocks.</p><p>In addition to high stock, bond and real estate prices across the board, commodity prices are also sending warning signs. Due to tight global supply chains and shortages, the prices of many commodities, including lumber, copper, steel, wheat and cotton, are experiencing rare gains, reaching multi-year highs. In the year to the end of last week, the price of West Texas Intermediate crude oil has soared from $38 a barrel to $65.</p><p>Commodity prices rise to record levels, which pose a serious threat to the economy. When consumers are reluctant to buy overpriced goods, and the profit margins of enterprises are eroded by raw materials, the economy may fall into contraction. In particular, from the 1970s to the first decade of this century, every time oil price rose sharply, the U.S. economy suffered a wave of recession. For example, the 2008 oil shock is a typical example, when oil prices rose from $50 in early 2007 to $140 in the summer of 2008.</p><p>Of course, similar signs of asset bubbles can be seen in many parts of the world, but Grantham stressed that bubbles in other places are not as serious as those in the United States, and the types are not as complete as those in the United States.</p><p>The \"craziest, most conceited, highest-valued stocks\" such as Tesla are beginning to show signs of weakness, while the rest of the stock market continues to rise. This is clearly a repeat of 2000, and Grantham wants to emphasize It is that when the situation has developed to this point, it is not far away when everything is finally over.</p><p>\"From a macro perspective, this is really a very bad scenario.\" Grantham said. \"We are likely to suffer the biggest loss of value ever.\" (Fei Green)</p>","source":"txmg","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>The biggest stock market crash in the history of US stocks is not far away? Legendary investors warn again</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nThe biggest stock market crash in the history of US stocks is not far away? Legendary investors warn again\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">腾讯美股</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-05-13 08:54</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>Grantham, a legendary investor, said that in short, everything is very similar to 2000, to the point of bizarre similarity. Of course, that doesn't mean everything will collapse tomorrow. The real development logic of things is that, first of all, in those craziest areas that have been completely decoupled from fundamentals, confidence begins to fade, and then its influence gradually penetrates into other areas, and eventually spreads to the entire market.</p><p>Legendary investor Jeremy Grantham (Jeremy Grantham) once accurately predicted the bursting of the bubbles in 2000 and 2008, and recently he made the latest prediction. Grantham said that the current market reminds him of the Internet bubble. He listed four indicators that the biggest stock market crash in history is not far away.</p><p>In January of this year, Grantham announced that \"the long bull market since 2009 has finally entered a mature stage and developed into an epic bubble.\" He also said that history has proved that before the final crash comes, there will be a \"massive surge in madness\" in the market.</p><p>The founder of Boston asset management firm Grantham, Mayo, van Otterloo & Co. has accurately predicted many bubbles and bursts in history, such as the Japanese asset price bubble in 1989, the technology bubble in 2000, and the real estate bubble in 2008. wait.</p><p>\"The essence of a bubble is that as long as you can find more money and crazier investors, it can keep blowing.\"</p><p>Grantham commented that in the fourth quarter of last year, the market was already full of \"extreme valuations, explosive gains, crazy stock offerings, and hysterical speculation\", and by the first quarter of this year, all this escalated into a series of landmark major events.</p><p>From<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/GME\">GameStop</a>The stock's bitter short squeeze, to Dogecoin's jaw-dropping rally, to the frenzy surrounding special purpose acquisition companies (SPACs) are the latest evidence. SPACs have raised $101.5 billion so far this year, exceeding the $83.4 billion raised for the whole of last year and higher than the sum of the previous seven years.</p><p>Like 2000</p><p>For Grantham, the current frenzy and hysteria make him unable to recall the original technology bubble, and now, cracks have begun to appear in the SPAC market-with changes in investor sentiment, severe oversupply, and increased regulatory authorities With scrutiny, the IPOX SPAC index has fallen by as much as 23% from its peak in February.</p><p>Although Grantham owns a Model 3 himself, he objectively points out that,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TSLA\">Tesla</a>The plunge in stock prices is also one of the evidence that the market frenzy has cooled down. The electric car company's stock rose nearly eightfold in 2020, and now, despite two consecutive quarters of positive earnings, it can't stop the stock's price from falling 24% from its January peak.</p><p>\"In short, everything is very similar to 2000, strangely similar. Of course, this doesn't mean that everything will collapse tomorrow.\"</p><p>In Grantham's view, the bursting process of the bubble is divided into two stages. The first stage is slow, while the second stage is the sudden and simultaneous collapse of everything. For example, in 2000, the starting point of the collapse of Pets.com's stock price in March, then gradually spread to those smaller star technology stocks in April, developed to mid-cap stocks in June, and finally in July It was the turn of the company that was once the world's largest market value at that time<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/CSCO\">Cisco</a>。</p><p>By September, the technology sector, which accounted for as much as 30% of the market at that time, had fallen by 50% as a whole. However, the S&P 500 index has not changed much, and investors are beginning to feel at ease. They feel that this is actually just a normal sector rotation.</p><p>\"The real development logic of things is that, first of all, in those craziest areas that have been completely decoupled from fundamentals, confidence begins to fade, and then its influence gradually penetrates into other areas, and eventually spreads to the entire market.\"</p><p>In September, the drums of passing flowers finally stopped completely, and the 70% market that had not been affected before could no longer be immune. In the next two years, the market fell by 50%.</p><p>\"It's like a termite colony, biting a little bit, and eventually the whole situation becomes unmanageable,\" Grantham concluded. \"When the termite colony has completely occupied an entire area, they will head for the rest of the market.\"</p><p>Four indicators</p><p>Grantham estimates that this time, due to the staggering fiscal stimulus plan and the widespread rollout of vaccines, the current bubble is entirely likely to last longer.</p><p>However, the final result will not change at all. Sooner or later, asset prices will return to reasonable levels, and investors will enter a much more pessimistic stage sooner or later. \"All in all, the higher you climb, the harder you fall.\"</p><p>Grantham cited the classic example of Japan, which staged the most exaggerated stock market bubble of all developed countries in the 1980s.</p><p>At that time, the overall P/E of the Nikkei index had reached 65, but everyone seemed to believe that this was what it should be. \"The bubble is so huge that the result is that thirty-two years have passed now, and the Japanese stock market still hasn't returned to the level of 1989.\"</p><p>As we all know, the whole asset price bubble in Japan finally burst in 1991, and then Japan entered the mode of \"lost decade\", and its economic growth stagnated for a long time. Grantham commented that when studying bubbles, the reverse wealth effect caused by their bursting cannot be ignored.</p><p>Although the bursting of the Internet bubble hit the U.S. stock market hard, its negative impact on the real economy of the United States was limited and soon disappeared. However, the 2008 financial crisis was different. It was not only the stock market that was severely hit, but also those buyers who were deeply mired in the real estate bubble.</p><p>Now, the housing market is overheating again, which is full of danger. Many indicators of housing market activity have reached the level on the eve of the bubble bursting in 2008.</p><p>\"We can look at the housing inventory numbers and see the amount of money available in that system,\" Grantham notes. \"It's almost certain that within the next few months, the U.S. housing market will surpass its all-time high in 2006.\"</p><p>Another indicator with a red light is the bond market. With sovereign bonds in many countries around the world turning negative interest rates-meaning that investors have to discount interest when lending money to governments-the price of bonds is actually much more expensive than stocks.</p><p>In addition to high stock, bond and real estate prices across the board, commodity prices are also sending warning signs. Due to tight global supply chains and shortages, the prices of many commodities, including lumber, copper, steel, wheat and cotton, are experiencing rare gains, reaching multi-year highs. In the year to the end of last week, the price of West Texas Intermediate crude oil has soared from $38 a barrel to $65.</p><p>Commodity prices rise to record levels, which pose a serious threat to the economy. When consumers are reluctant to buy overpriced goods, and the profit margins of enterprises are eroded by raw materials, the economy may fall into contraction. In particular, from the 1970s to the first decade of this century, every time oil price rose sharply, the U.S. economy suffered a wave of recession. For example, the 2008 oil shock is a typical example, when oil prices rose from $50 in early 2007 to $140 in the summer of 2008.</p><p>Of course, similar signs of asset bubbles can be seen in many parts of the world, but Grantham stressed that bubbles in other places are not as serious as those in the United States, and the types are not as complete as those in the United States.</p><p>The \"craziest, most conceited, highest-valued stocks\" such as Tesla are beginning to show signs of weakness, while the rest of the stock market continues to rise. This is clearly a repeat of 2000, and Grantham wants to emphasize It is that when the situation has developed to this point, it is not far away when everything is finally over.</p><p>\"From a macro perspective, this is really a very bad scenario.\" Grantham said. \"We are likely to suffer the biggest loss of value ever.\" (Fei Green)</p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> source：<a href=\"https://xw.qq.com/cmsid/20210512A0EP8700\">腾讯美股</a></p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ed4ee39e6b0f45214393093d70ba81a8","relate_stocks":{".DJI":"道琼斯",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite"},"source_url":"https://xw.qq.com/cmsid/20210512A0EP8700","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1155177385","content_text":"传奇投资人格兰瑟姆表示，总之，一切都和2000年非常相似，相似到离奇的地步。当然，这并不意味着一切都将在明天崩塌。事情的真实发展逻辑就是，首先，那些最为疯狂的，已经彻底和基本面脱钩的领域，信心开始消退，然后其影响逐渐渗透到其他的领域，最终蔓延到整个大盘。传奇投资人格兰瑟姆（Jeremy Grantham）曾经准确预见到了2000年和2008年的泡沫破灭，近日他又做出了最新的预测。格兰瑟姆表示，当前的市场让他无法不回想起互联网泡沫时期，他列出了四个指标，说明史上最大股灾已经在不远处了。今年1月，格兰瑟姆曾经宣布，“2009年以来的漫长牛市最终进入了成熟阶段，演成了史诗级的泡沫”，他还说，历史已经证明，在最终的崩盘到来之前，市场上会出现“疯狂行为的大量猛增”。这位波士顿资产管理公司Grantham, Mayo, van Otterloo & Co.的创始人曾经准确预测到了历史上的多次泡沫和破灭，比如1989年的日本资产价格泡沫，2000年的科技泡沫，2008年的房地产泡沫等。“泡沫的要义就在于，只要你能够找到更多的资金和更疯狂的投资者，它就可以继续吹下去。”格兰瑟姆评价道，去年的第四季度，市场上就已经充斥着“极端化的估值、爆炸性的涨势、发疯般的发股，以及歇斯底里的投机行为”，而到了今年第一季度，这一切更升级为一系列标志性的重大事件。从游戏驿站股票惨烈的轧空，到狗狗币令人瞠目结舌的涨势，再到围绕着特殊目的收购公司（SPAC）的狂热，这些都是最新的证据。SPAC今年迄今为止已经融资1015亿美元，超过了去年全年的834亿美元，比再之前七年的总和还高。激似2000年对于格兰瑟姆而言，当下的狂热和歇斯底里让他无法不回忆起当初的科技泡沫，而现在，SPAC市场已经开始出现了裂隙——伴随投资者情绪转变，供应严重过剩，以及监管部门加大了审查力度，IPOX SPAC指数较之2月的峰值已经下滑了23%之多。虽然格兰瑟姆本身也拥有一部Model 3，但他还是客观地指出，特斯拉的股价暴跌也是市场狂热降温的证据之一。这家电动汽车公司的股票2020年上涨近八倍，而现在，虽然连续两个季度财报利好，也拦不住该股价格从1月峰值下滑24%的颓势。“总之，一切都和2000年非常相似，相似到离奇的地步。当然，这并不意味着一切都将在明天崩塌。”在格兰瑟姆看来，泡沫的破灭过程是分为两个阶段的，第一阶段是缓慢的，而第二阶段则是一切骤然同时崩溃。比如，在2000年，破灭的起点是3月间Pets.com股价的崩盘，然后到4月，逐渐波及到那些体量较小的明星科技股票，6月发展到中型股票，而到了7月，终于轮到了当时一度市值全球第一的思科。到了9月，在当时的市场上占比高达30%的科技板块，整体已经下跌了50%。不过，标普500指数却没有多大变化，投资者开始感到安心，他们觉得，这其实只不过是一次正常的板块轮动而已。“事情的真实发展逻辑就是，首先，那些最为疯狂的，已经彻底和基本面脱钩的领域，信心开始消退，然后其影响逐渐渗透到其他的领域，最终蔓延到整个大盘。”到了9月，击鼓传花的鼓声终于彻底停了下来，那之前没有被波及到的70%市场再也无法独善其身了，在之后的两年间，大盘下跌了50%。“这就像是白蚁群，一点点噬咬，最终让整个局面变得无法收拾。”格兰瑟姆总结道，“当白蚁群已经彻底占领了一整块地域，他们就会向市场余下的地方进发。”四大指标格兰瑟姆估计，这一次，由于规模惊人的财政刺激计划，以及疫苗的广泛铺开，当下的泡沫完全可能持续存在更长的时间。不过，最终的结果并不会有任何改变，资产价格迟早要回归到合理的水平，投资者迟早会进入一个悲观得多的阶段。“总而言之，爬得越高，摔得越狠。”格兰瑟姆举出了日本的经典例子，该国20世纪80年代上演了所有发达国家股市当中最夸张的泡沫。当时，日经指数的整体市盈率已经来到了65，但是似乎所有人都相信这是里所应当的。“泡沫实在是太巨大了，因此其结果就是，现在已经过去了足足三十二年，日本股市依然没有回到1989年时候的水平。”众所周知，日本的整个资产价格泡沫是最终破灭于1991年，而之后日本就进入了“失落十年”的模式，经济增长长期陷于停滞。格兰瑟姆评价道，在研究泡沫时，由其破灭引发的反向财富效应也是不可忽视的。当初的互联网泡沫破灭虽然重创了美国股市，但是对美国现实经济的消极影响有限，很快就消失了，但是2008年金融危机则不同，受到严重打击的不单单是股市，同时还有那些深陷房地产泡沫当中的购房者们。现在，住宅市场再度过热，危险性十足，多个住宅市场活跃度指标都已经达到了2008年泡沫破灭前夜的水平。“我们可以看看住宅库存数字，看看那系统当中可以使用的资金规模。”格兰瑟姆指出，“几乎可以肯定地说，未来几个月之内，美国房市就会越过2006年的历史最高点。”另外一个亮起红灯的指标，则是债券市场。在全球众多国家的主权债券都变成负利率——意味着投资者借钱给各国政府还要倒贴利息——的情况下，债券的价格实质上已经比股票还要昂贵许多。除了股票、债券和房地产价格全线高企之外，大宗商品价格也在发出警告信号。由于全球供应链紧张，货源短缺，包括木材、铜、钢铁、小麦和棉花等等在内，众多商品的价格都在经历罕见的涨势，达到了多年来的新高。至上周结束时的一年间，西得克萨斯中间基原油价格已经从每桶38美元大涨到了65美元。大宗商品价格涨至创纪录水平，就对经济构成了严重威胁，当消费者不愿意购买价格过高的商品，企业的利润率被原材料蚕食，经济就可能会因此陷入收缩。尤其需要指出的是，从20世纪70年代到本世纪的第一个十年，每次石油价格大涨之后，美国经济都会遭遇一波衰退。比如2008年石油冲击就是个典型的例子，当时油价一路从2007年年初的50美元上涨到了2008年夏季的140美元。当然，类似的资产泡沫迹象，世界许多地方都可以看到，但是格兰瑟姆强调，其他地方的泡沫没有美国这么严重，种类也没有美国这么齐全。“最疯狂的，最自负的，最高估的股票”如特斯拉等开始展现出疲态，而股市其他的部分还在继续上涨，这分明就是2000年的重演，而格兰瑟姆要强调的是，局面发展到这一步，到一切最终结束也就为时不远了。“从宏观视角来看，这确实是非常糟糕的一幕。”格兰瑟姆表示，“我们很可能将遭遇有史以来最大的价值损失。”（费绿）","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{".IXIC":0.9,".DJI":0.9,".SPX":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1435,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":374093106,"gmtCreate":1619400451105,"gmtModify":1704723224093,"author":{"id":"3581802411373035","authorId":"3581802411373035","name":"YangyiYY","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0ba17e7506a9f4370cddd0dc403cfb09","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3581802411373035","idStr":"3581802411373035"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"meow","listText":"meow","text":"meow","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":4,"commentSize":6,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/374093106","repostId":"1184404050","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2366,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[{"author":{"id":"3555321706323687","authorId":"3555321706323687","name":"KingMeng","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2a4230fd8d7c8381fff3acc8774ac46e","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"authorIdStr":"3555321706323687","idStr":"3555321706323687"},"content":"done. do like and reply pls. thanks!","text":"done. do like and reply pls. thanks!","html":"done. do like and reply pls. thanks!"}],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":372019733,"gmtCreate":1619156905322,"gmtModify":1704720530590,"author":{"id":"3581802411373035","authorId":"3581802411373035","name":"YangyiYY","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0ba17e7506a9f4370cddd0dc403cfb09","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3581802411373035","idStr":"3581802411373035"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Milestone: From 0 to 700","listText":"Milestone: From 0 to 700","text":"Milestone: From 0 to 700","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f75a4bc348be2a1faee1c9fb72889d0e","width":"1284","height":"2778"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/372019733","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1603,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0}],"hots":[{"id":374093106,"gmtCreate":1619400451105,"gmtModify":1704723224093,"author":{"id":"3581802411373035","authorId":"3581802411373035","name":"YangyiYY","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0ba17e7506a9f4370cddd0dc403cfb09","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3581802411373035","authorIdStr":"3581802411373035"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"meow","listText":"meow","text":"meow","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":4,"commentSize":6,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/374093106","repostId":"1184404050","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2366,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[{"author":{"id":"3555321706323687","authorId":"3555321706323687","name":"KingMeng","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2a4230fd8d7c8381fff3acc8774ac46e","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"idStr":"3555321706323687","authorIdStr":"3555321706323687"},"content":"done. do like and reply pls. thanks!","text":"done. do like and reply pls. thanks!","html":"done. do like and reply pls. thanks!"}],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":197730761,"gmtCreate":1621484633453,"gmtModify":1704358378529,"author":{"id":"3581802411373035","authorId":"3581802411373035","name":"YangyiYY","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0ba17e7506a9f4370cddd0dc403cfb09","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3581802411373035","authorIdStr":"3581802411373035"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Here for good ","listText":"Here for good ","text":"Here for good","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":2,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/197730761","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2025,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":139910097,"gmtCreate":1621583315319,"gmtModify":1704360044310,"author":{"id":"3581802411373035","authorId":"3581802411373035","name":"YangyiYY","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0ba17e7506a9f4370cddd0dc403cfb09","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3581802411373035","authorIdStr":"3581802411373035"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Cgjijbvfhnvddgbbvxbnj","listText":"Cgjijbvfhnvddgbbvxbnj","text":"Cgjijbvfhnvddgbbvxbnj","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":2,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/139910097","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2388,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":191222827,"gmtCreate":1620882470069,"gmtModify":1704349858812,"author":{"id":"3581802411373035","authorId":"3581802411373035","name":"YangyiYY","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0ba17e7506a9f4370cddd0dc403cfb09","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3581802411373035","authorIdStr":"3581802411373035"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Kuai le","listText":"Kuai le","text":"Kuai le","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":4,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/191222827","repostId":"1155177385","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1155177385","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1620867290,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1155177385?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2021-05-13 08:54","market":"hk","language":"zh","title":"The biggest stock market crash in the history of US stocks is not far away? Legendary investors warn again","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1155177385","media":"腾讯美股","summary":"传奇投资人格兰瑟姆表示，总之，一切都和2000年非常相似，相似到离奇的地步。当然，这并不意味着一切都将在明天崩塌。事情的真实发展逻辑就是，首先，那些最为疯狂的，已经彻底和基本面脱钩的领域，信心开始消退","content":"<p>Grantham, a legendary investor, said that in short, everything is very similar to 2000, to the point of bizarre similarity. Of course, that doesn't mean everything will collapse tomorrow. The real development logic of things is that, first of all, in those craziest areas that have been completely decoupled from fundamentals, confidence begins to fade, and then its influence gradually penetrates into other areas, and eventually spreads to the entire market.</p><p>Legendary investor Jeremy Grantham (Jeremy Grantham) once accurately predicted the bursting of the bubbles in 2000 and 2008, and recently he made the latest prediction. Grantham said that the current market reminds him of the Internet bubble. He listed four indicators that the biggest stock market crash in history is not far away.</p><p>In January of this year, Grantham announced that \"the long bull market since 2009 has finally entered a mature stage and developed into an epic bubble.\" He also said that history has proved that before the final crash comes, there will be a \"massive surge in madness\" in the market.</p><p>The founder of Boston asset management firm Grantham, Mayo, van Otterloo & Co. has accurately predicted many bubbles and bursts in history, such as the Japanese asset price bubble in 1989, the technology bubble in 2000, and the real estate bubble in 2008. wait.</p><p>\"The essence of a bubble is that as long as you can find more money and crazier investors, it can keep blowing.\"</p><p>Grantham commented that in the fourth quarter of last year, the market was already full of \"extreme valuations, explosive gains, crazy stock offerings, and hysterical speculation\", and by the first quarter of this year, all this escalated into a series of landmark major events.</p><p>From<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/GME\">GameStop</a>The stock's bitter short squeeze, to Dogecoin's jaw-dropping rally, to the frenzy surrounding special purpose acquisition companies (SPACs) are the latest evidence. SPACs have raised $101.5 billion so far this year, exceeding the $83.4 billion raised for the whole of last year and higher than the sum of the previous seven years.</p><p>Like 2000</p><p>For Grantham, the current frenzy and hysteria make him unable to recall the original technology bubble, and now, cracks have begun to appear in the SPAC market-with changes in investor sentiment, severe oversupply, and increased regulatory authorities With scrutiny, the IPOX SPAC index has fallen by as much as 23% from its peak in February.</p><p>Although Grantham owns a Model 3 himself, he objectively points out that,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TSLA\">Tesla</a>The plunge in stock prices is also one of the evidence that the market frenzy has cooled down. The electric car company's stock rose nearly eightfold in 2020, and now, despite two consecutive quarters of positive earnings, it can't stop the stock's price from falling 24% from its January peak.</p><p>\"In short, everything is very similar to 2000, strangely similar. Of course, this doesn't mean that everything will collapse tomorrow.\"</p><p>In Grantham's view, the bursting process of the bubble is divided into two stages. The first stage is slow, while the second stage is the sudden and simultaneous collapse of everything. For example, in 2000, the starting point of the collapse of Pets.com's stock price in March, then gradually spread to those smaller star technology stocks in April, developed to mid-cap stocks in June, and finally in July It was the turn of the company that was once the world's largest market value at that time<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/CSCO\">Cisco</a>。</p><p>By September, the technology sector, which accounted for as much as 30% of the market at that time, had fallen by 50% as a whole. However, the S&P 500 index has not changed much, and investors are beginning to feel at ease. They feel that this is actually just a normal sector rotation.</p><p>\"The real development logic of things is that, first of all, in those craziest areas that have been completely decoupled from fundamentals, confidence begins to fade, and then its influence gradually penetrates into other areas, and eventually spreads to the entire market.\"</p><p>In September, the drums of passing flowers finally stopped completely, and the 70% market that had not been affected before could no longer be immune. In the next two years, the market fell by 50%.</p><p>\"It's like a termite colony, biting a little bit, and eventually the whole situation becomes unmanageable,\" Grantham concluded. \"When the termite colony has completely occupied an entire area, they will head for the rest of the market.\"</p><p>Four indicators</p><p>Grantham estimates that this time, due to the staggering fiscal stimulus plan and the widespread rollout of vaccines, the current bubble is entirely likely to last longer.</p><p>However, the final result will not change at all. Sooner or later, asset prices will return to reasonable levels, and investors will enter a much more pessimistic stage sooner or later. \"All in all, the higher you climb, the harder you fall.\"</p><p>Grantham cited the classic example of Japan, which staged the most exaggerated stock market bubble of all developed countries in the 1980s.</p><p>At that time, the overall P/E of the Nikkei index had reached 65, but everyone seemed to believe that this was what it should be. \"The bubble is so huge that the result is that thirty-two years have passed now, and the Japanese stock market still hasn't returned to the level of 1989.\"</p><p>As we all know, the whole asset price bubble in Japan finally burst in 1991, and then Japan entered the mode of \"lost decade\", and its economic growth stagnated for a long time. Grantham commented that when studying bubbles, the reverse wealth effect caused by their bursting cannot be ignored.</p><p>Although the bursting of the Internet bubble hit the U.S. stock market hard, its negative impact on the real economy of the United States was limited and soon disappeared. However, the 2008 financial crisis was different. It was not only the stock market that was severely hit, but also those buyers who were deeply mired in the real estate bubble.</p><p>Now, the housing market is overheating again, which is full of danger. Many indicators of housing market activity have reached the level on the eve of the bubble bursting in 2008.</p><p>\"We can look at the housing inventory numbers and see the amount of money available in that system,\" Grantham notes. \"It's almost certain that within the next few months, the U.S. housing market will surpass its all-time high in 2006.\"</p><p>Another indicator with a red light is the bond market. With sovereign bonds in many countries around the world turning negative interest rates-meaning that investors have to discount interest when lending money to governments-the price of bonds is actually much more expensive than stocks.</p><p>In addition to high stock, bond and real estate prices across the board, commodity prices are also sending warning signs. Due to tight global supply chains and shortages, the prices of many commodities, including lumber, copper, steel, wheat and cotton, are experiencing rare gains, reaching multi-year highs. In the year to the end of last week, the price of West Texas Intermediate crude oil has soared from $38 a barrel to $65.</p><p>Commodity prices rise to record levels, which pose a serious threat to the economy. When consumers are reluctant to buy overpriced goods, and the profit margins of enterprises are eroded by raw materials, the economy may fall into contraction. In particular, from the 1970s to the first decade of this century, every time oil price rose sharply, the U.S. economy suffered a wave of recession. For example, the 2008 oil shock is a typical example, when oil prices rose from $50 in early 2007 to $140 in the summer of 2008.</p><p>Of course, similar signs of asset bubbles can be seen in many parts of the world, but Grantham stressed that bubbles in other places are not as serious as those in the United States, and the types are not as complete as those in the United States.</p><p>The \"craziest, most conceited, highest-valued stocks\" such as Tesla are beginning to show signs of weakness, while the rest of the stock market continues to rise. This is clearly a repeat of 2000, and Grantham wants to emphasize It is that when the situation has developed to this point, it is not far away when everything is finally over.</p><p>\"From a macro perspective, this is really a very bad scenario.\" Grantham said. \"We are likely to suffer the biggest loss of value ever.\" (Fei Green)</p>","source":"txmg","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>The biggest stock market crash in the history of US stocks is not far away? Legendary investors warn again</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nThe biggest stock market crash in the history of US stocks is not far away? Legendary investors warn again\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">腾讯美股</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-05-13 08:54</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>Grantham, a legendary investor, said that in short, everything is very similar to 2000, to the point of bizarre similarity. Of course, that doesn't mean everything will collapse tomorrow. The real development logic of things is that, first of all, in those craziest areas that have been completely decoupled from fundamentals, confidence begins to fade, and then its influence gradually penetrates into other areas, and eventually spreads to the entire market.</p><p>Legendary investor Jeremy Grantham (Jeremy Grantham) once accurately predicted the bursting of the bubbles in 2000 and 2008, and recently he made the latest prediction. Grantham said that the current market reminds him of the Internet bubble. He listed four indicators that the biggest stock market crash in history is not far away.</p><p>In January of this year, Grantham announced that \"the long bull market since 2009 has finally entered a mature stage and developed into an epic bubble.\" He also said that history has proved that before the final crash comes, there will be a \"massive surge in madness\" in the market.</p><p>The founder of Boston asset management firm Grantham, Mayo, van Otterloo & Co. has accurately predicted many bubbles and bursts in history, such as the Japanese asset price bubble in 1989, the technology bubble in 2000, and the real estate bubble in 2008. wait.</p><p>\"The essence of a bubble is that as long as you can find more money and crazier investors, it can keep blowing.\"</p><p>Grantham commented that in the fourth quarter of last year, the market was already full of \"extreme valuations, explosive gains, crazy stock offerings, and hysterical speculation\", and by the first quarter of this year, all this escalated into a series of landmark major events.</p><p>From<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/GME\">GameStop</a>The stock's bitter short squeeze, to Dogecoin's jaw-dropping rally, to the frenzy surrounding special purpose acquisition companies (SPACs) are the latest evidence. SPACs have raised $101.5 billion so far this year, exceeding the $83.4 billion raised for the whole of last year and higher than the sum of the previous seven years.</p><p>Like 2000</p><p>For Grantham, the current frenzy and hysteria make him unable to recall the original technology bubble, and now, cracks have begun to appear in the SPAC market-with changes in investor sentiment, severe oversupply, and increased regulatory authorities With scrutiny, the IPOX SPAC index has fallen by as much as 23% from its peak in February.</p><p>Although Grantham owns a Model 3 himself, he objectively points out that,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TSLA\">Tesla</a>The plunge in stock prices is also one of the evidence that the market frenzy has cooled down. The electric car company's stock rose nearly eightfold in 2020, and now, despite two consecutive quarters of positive earnings, it can't stop the stock's price from falling 24% from its January peak.</p><p>\"In short, everything is very similar to 2000, strangely similar. Of course, this doesn't mean that everything will collapse tomorrow.\"</p><p>In Grantham's view, the bursting process of the bubble is divided into two stages. The first stage is slow, while the second stage is the sudden and simultaneous collapse of everything. For example, in 2000, the starting point of the collapse of Pets.com's stock price in March, then gradually spread to those smaller star technology stocks in April, developed to mid-cap stocks in June, and finally in July It was the turn of the company that was once the world's largest market value at that time<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/CSCO\">Cisco</a>。</p><p>By September, the technology sector, which accounted for as much as 30% of the market at that time, had fallen by 50% as a whole. However, the S&P 500 index has not changed much, and investors are beginning to feel at ease. They feel that this is actually just a normal sector rotation.</p><p>\"The real development logic of things is that, first of all, in those craziest areas that have been completely decoupled from fundamentals, confidence begins to fade, and then its influence gradually penetrates into other areas, and eventually spreads to the entire market.\"</p><p>In September, the drums of passing flowers finally stopped completely, and the 70% market that had not been affected before could no longer be immune. In the next two years, the market fell by 50%.</p><p>\"It's like a termite colony, biting a little bit, and eventually the whole situation becomes unmanageable,\" Grantham concluded. \"When the termite colony has completely occupied an entire area, they will head for the rest of the market.\"</p><p>Four indicators</p><p>Grantham estimates that this time, due to the staggering fiscal stimulus plan and the widespread rollout of vaccines, the current bubble is entirely likely to last longer.</p><p>However, the final result will not change at all. Sooner or later, asset prices will return to reasonable levels, and investors will enter a much more pessimistic stage sooner or later. \"All in all, the higher you climb, the harder you fall.\"</p><p>Grantham cited the classic example of Japan, which staged the most exaggerated stock market bubble of all developed countries in the 1980s.</p><p>At that time, the overall P/E of the Nikkei index had reached 65, but everyone seemed to believe that this was what it should be. \"The bubble is so huge that the result is that thirty-two years have passed now, and the Japanese stock market still hasn't returned to the level of 1989.\"</p><p>As we all know, the whole asset price bubble in Japan finally burst in 1991, and then Japan entered the mode of \"lost decade\", and its economic growth stagnated for a long time. Grantham commented that when studying bubbles, the reverse wealth effect caused by their bursting cannot be ignored.</p><p>Although the bursting of the Internet bubble hit the U.S. stock market hard, its negative impact on the real economy of the United States was limited and soon disappeared. However, the 2008 financial crisis was different. It was not only the stock market that was severely hit, but also those buyers who were deeply mired in the real estate bubble.</p><p>Now, the housing market is overheating again, which is full of danger. Many indicators of housing market activity have reached the level on the eve of the bubble bursting in 2008.</p><p>\"We can look at the housing inventory numbers and see the amount of money available in that system,\" Grantham notes. \"It's almost certain that within the next few months, the U.S. housing market will surpass its all-time high in 2006.\"</p><p>Another indicator with a red light is the bond market. With sovereign bonds in many countries around the world turning negative interest rates-meaning that investors have to discount interest when lending money to governments-the price of bonds is actually much more expensive than stocks.</p><p>In addition to high stock, bond and real estate prices across the board, commodity prices are also sending warning signs. Due to tight global supply chains and shortages, the prices of many commodities, including lumber, copper, steel, wheat and cotton, are experiencing rare gains, reaching multi-year highs. In the year to the end of last week, the price of West Texas Intermediate crude oil has soared from $38 a barrel to $65.</p><p>Commodity prices rise to record levels, which pose a serious threat to the economy. When consumers are reluctant to buy overpriced goods, and the profit margins of enterprises are eroded by raw materials, the economy may fall into contraction. In particular, from the 1970s to the first decade of this century, every time oil price rose sharply, the U.S. economy suffered a wave of recession. For example, the 2008 oil shock is a typical example, when oil prices rose from $50 in early 2007 to $140 in the summer of 2008.</p><p>Of course, similar signs of asset bubbles can be seen in many parts of the world, but Grantham stressed that bubbles in other places are not as serious as those in the United States, and the types are not as complete as those in the United States.</p><p>The \"craziest, most conceited, highest-valued stocks\" such as Tesla are beginning to show signs of weakness, while the rest of the stock market continues to rise. This is clearly a repeat of 2000, and Grantham wants to emphasize It is that when the situation has developed to this point, it is not far away when everything is finally over.</p><p>\"From a macro perspective, this is really a very bad scenario.\" Grantham said. \"We are likely to suffer the biggest loss of value ever.\" (Fei Green)</p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> source：<a href=\"https://xw.qq.com/cmsid/20210512A0EP8700\">腾讯美股</a></p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ed4ee39e6b0f45214393093d70ba81a8","relate_stocks":{".DJI":"道琼斯",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite"},"source_url":"https://xw.qq.com/cmsid/20210512A0EP8700","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1155177385","content_text":"传奇投资人格兰瑟姆表示，总之，一切都和2000年非常相似，相似到离奇的地步。当然，这并不意味着一切都将在明天崩塌。事情的真实发展逻辑就是，首先，那些最为疯狂的，已经彻底和基本面脱钩的领域，信心开始消退，然后其影响逐渐渗透到其他的领域，最终蔓延到整个大盘。传奇投资人格兰瑟姆（Jeremy Grantham）曾经准确预见到了2000年和2008年的泡沫破灭，近日他又做出了最新的预测。格兰瑟姆表示，当前的市场让他无法不回想起互联网泡沫时期，他列出了四个指标，说明史上最大股灾已经在不远处了。今年1月，格兰瑟姆曾经宣布，“2009年以来的漫长牛市最终进入了成熟阶段，演成了史诗级的泡沫”，他还说，历史已经证明，在最终的崩盘到来之前，市场上会出现“疯狂行为的大量猛增”。这位波士顿资产管理公司Grantham, Mayo, van Otterloo & Co.的创始人曾经准确预测到了历史上的多次泡沫和破灭，比如1989年的日本资产价格泡沫，2000年的科技泡沫，2008年的房地产泡沫等。“泡沫的要义就在于，只要你能够找到更多的资金和更疯狂的投资者，它就可以继续吹下去。”格兰瑟姆评价道，去年的第四季度，市场上就已经充斥着“极端化的估值、爆炸性的涨势、发疯般的发股，以及歇斯底里的投机行为”，而到了今年第一季度，这一切更升级为一系列标志性的重大事件。从游戏驿站股票惨烈的轧空，到狗狗币令人瞠目结舌的涨势，再到围绕着特殊目的收购公司（SPAC）的狂热，这些都是最新的证据。SPAC今年迄今为止已经融资1015亿美元，超过了去年全年的834亿美元，比再之前七年的总和还高。激似2000年对于格兰瑟姆而言，当下的狂热和歇斯底里让他无法不回忆起当初的科技泡沫，而现在，SPAC市场已经开始出现了裂隙——伴随投资者情绪转变，供应严重过剩，以及监管部门加大了审查力度，IPOX SPAC指数较之2月的峰值已经下滑了23%之多。虽然格兰瑟姆本身也拥有一部Model 3，但他还是客观地指出，特斯拉的股价暴跌也是市场狂热降温的证据之一。这家电动汽车公司的股票2020年上涨近八倍，而现在，虽然连续两个季度财报利好，也拦不住该股价格从1月峰值下滑24%的颓势。“总之，一切都和2000年非常相似，相似到离奇的地步。当然，这并不意味着一切都将在明天崩塌。”在格兰瑟姆看来，泡沫的破灭过程是分为两个阶段的，第一阶段是缓慢的，而第二阶段则是一切骤然同时崩溃。比如，在2000年，破灭的起点是3月间Pets.com股价的崩盘，然后到4月，逐渐波及到那些体量较小的明星科技股票，6月发展到中型股票，而到了7月，终于轮到了当时一度市值全球第一的思科。到了9月，在当时的市场上占比高达30%的科技板块，整体已经下跌了50%。不过，标普500指数却没有多大变化，投资者开始感到安心，他们觉得，这其实只不过是一次正常的板块轮动而已。“事情的真实发展逻辑就是，首先，那些最为疯狂的，已经彻底和基本面脱钩的领域，信心开始消退，然后其影响逐渐渗透到其他的领域，最终蔓延到整个大盘。”到了9月，击鼓传花的鼓声终于彻底停了下来，那之前没有被波及到的70%市场再也无法独善其身了，在之后的两年间，大盘下跌了50%。“这就像是白蚁群，一点点噬咬，最终让整个局面变得无法收拾。”格兰瑟姆总结道，“当白蚁群已经彻底占领了一整块地域，他们就会向市场余下的地方进发。”四大指标格兰瑟姆估计，这一次，由于规模惊人的财政刺激计划，以及疫苗的广泛铺开，当下的泡沫完全可能持续存在更长的时间。不过，最终的结果并不会有任何改变，资产价格迟早要回归到合理的水平，投资者迟早会进入一个悲观得多的阶段。“总而言之，爬得越高，摔得越狠。”格兰瑟姆举出了日本的经典例子，该国20世纪80年代上演了所有发达国家股市当中最夸张的泡沫。当时，日经指数的整体市盈率已经来到了65，但是似乎所有人都相信这是里所应当的。“泡沫实在是太巨大了，因此其结果就是，现在已经过去了足足三十二年，日本股市依然没有回到1989年时候的水平。”众所周知，日本的整个资产价格泡沫是最终破灭于1991年，而之后日本就进入了“失落十年”的模式，经济增长长期陷于停滞。格兰瑟姆评价道，在研究泡沫时，由其破灭引发的反向财富效应也是不可忽视的。当初的互联网泡沫破灭虽然重创了美国股市，但是对美国现实经济的消极影响有限，很快就消失了，但是2008年金融危机则不同，受到严重打击的不单单是股市，同时还有那些深陷房地产泡沫当中的购房者们。现在，住宅市场再度过热，危险性十足，多个住宅市场活跃度指标都已经达到了2008年泡沫破灭前夜的水平。“我们可以看看住宅库存数字，看看那系统当中可以使用的资金规模。”格兰瑟姆指出，“几乎可以肯定地说，未来几个月之内，美国房市就会越过2006年的历史最高点。”另外一个亮起红灯的指标，则是债券市场。在全球众多国家的主权债券都变成负利率——意味着投资者借钱给各国政府还要倒贴利息——的情况下，债券的价格实质上已经比股票还要昂贵许多。除了股票、债券和房地产价格全线高企之外，大宗商品价格也在发出警告信号。由于全球供应链紧张，货源短缺，包括木材、铜、钢铁、小麦和棉花等等在内，众多商品的价格都在经历罕见的涨势，达到了多年来的新高。至上周结束时的一年间，西得克萨斯中间基原油价格已经从每桶38美元大涨到了65美元。大宗商品价格涨至创纪录水平，就对经济构成了严重威胁，当消费者不愿意购买价格过高的商品，企业的利润率被原材料蚕食，经济就可能会因此陷入收缩。尤其需要指出的是，从20世纪70年代到本世纪的第一个十年，每次石油价格大涨之后，美国经济都会遭遇一波衰退。比如2008年石油冲击就是个典型的例子，当时油价一路从2007年年初的50美元上涨到了2008年夏季的140美元。当然，类似的资产泡沫迹象，世界许多地方都可以看到，但是格兰瑟姆强调，其他地方的泡沫没有美国这么严重，种类也没有美国这么齐全。“最疯狂的，最自负的，最高估的股票”如特斯拉等开始展现出疲态，而股市其他的部分还在继续上涨，这分明就是2000年的重演，而格兰瑟姆要强调的是，局面发展到这一步，到一切最终结束也就为时不远了。“从宏观视角来看，这确实是非常糟糕的一幕。”格兰瑟姆表示，“我们很可能将遭遇有史以来最大的价值损失。”（费绿）","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{".IXIC":0.9,".DJI":0.9,".SPX":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1435,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":133209958,"gmtCreate":1621747870474,"gmtModify":1704362052884,"author":{"id":"3581802411373035","authorId":"3581802411373035","name":"YangyiYY","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0ba17e7506a9f4370cddd0dc403cfb09","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3581802411373035","authorIdStr":"3581802411373035"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Adfhhjjfdhjkjgfstjkjfrikgg","listText":"Adfhhjjfdhjkjgfstjkjfrikgg","text":"Adfhhjjfdhjkjgfstjkjfrikgg","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/133209958","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2338,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":372019733,"gmtCreate":1619156905322,"gmtModify":1704720530590,"author":{"id":"3581802411373035","authorId":"3581802411373035","name":"YangyiYY","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0ba17e7506a9f4370cddd0dc403cfb09","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3581802411373035","authorIdStr":"3581802411373035"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Milestone: 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