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王华77

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2021-07-16

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Intel in talks to acquire GlobalFoundries for roughly $30 billion

2021-06-23

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2021-06-28

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The battle for ammunition, this game returns to Hong Kong, and XPeng wins!

2021-06-13

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2021-06-11

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Didi submits listing application, management voting rights exceed 50%

2021-05-20

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"Cold thinking" under "hot inflation": Will the Fed policy make a sharp turn?

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06:51","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"Intel in talks to acquire GlobalFoundries for roughly $30 billion","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1191369396","media":"老虎资讯综合","summary":"7月16日讯，据知情人士透露，英特尔公司正在研究收购格芯（GlobalFoundries）的交易，此举将推动这家半导体巨头为其他科技公司生产更多芯片的计划，并被视为该公司有史以来最大的一笔收购。\n知情","content":"<p>July 16, according to people familiar with the matter,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/INTC\">Intel</a>The company is studying a deal to acquire GlobalFoundries, a move that would boost the semiconductor giant's plans to produce more chips for other technology companies and is seen as the company's largest acquisition ever.</p><p>The deal could value GlobalFoundries at around $30 billion, people familiar with the matter said. But there is no guarantee that it will succeed, and GlobalFoundries may go ahead with an initial public offering (IPO) as planned. GlobalFoundries is owned by Mubadala Investment Co., a government investment arm in Abu Dhabi, but is based in the United States. The company is not in talks with Intel, a spokesman for the company said.</p><p>GlobalFoundries is owned by Mubadala Investment Company, an Abu Dhabi sovereign wealth fund, but is headquartered in the United States. According to data from research firm Trendforce, GlobalFoundries occupies about 7% of the global wafer foundry market in terms of revenue, behind TSMC, Samsung and UMC.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/875739a63d7486f99ea8e73c95c0ec18\" tg-width=\"552\" tg-height=\"279\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>It is worth noting that GlobalFoundries' major customers include Intel's competitor AMD. This year, the two parties reached a long-term chip component supply agreement worth $1.6 billion. This will greatly increase the difficulty of Intel's mergers and acquisitions.</p><p>Intel CEO Pat Gelsinger (Pat Gelsinger) said in March that Intel would return to fabs and announced that it would invest more than US $20 billion to expand wafer production equipment in the United States, as well as at home and abroad. Promote more investment.</p><p>Previously, a number of semiconductor companies announced plans to expand production. For example, TSMC invested US $100 billion in three years to expand production capacity; South Korea's second largest chip factory SK Hynix's $100 billion production expansion plan was approved.</p><p>Qiao An, an analyst at TrendForce, once said that the global demand for semiconductors is still strong, coupled with the tight demand for automotive semiconductors, the delivery cycle has been extended in a market where the production capacity of various processes of wafer foundries is mostly hard to find. Production expansion has become the most direct way to solve the production capacity problem.</p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Intel in talks to acquire GlobalFoundries for roughly $30 billion</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nIntel in talks to acquire GlobalFoundries for roughly $30 billion\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/102\">\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">老虎资讯综合 </p>\n<p class=\"h-time smaller\">2021-07-16 06:51</p>\n</div>\n</a>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>July 16, according to people familiar with the matter,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/INTC\">Intel</a>The company is studying a deal to acquire GlobalFoundries, a move that would boost the semiconductor giant's plans to produce more chips for other technology companies and is seen as the company's largest acquisition ever.</p><p>The deal could value GlobalFoundries at around $30 billion, people familiar with the matter said. But there is no guarantee that it will succeed, and GlobalFoundries may go ahead with an initial public offering (IPO) as planned. GlobalFoundries is owned by Mubadala Investment Co., a government investment arm in Abu Dhabi, but is based in the United States. The company is not in talks with Intel, a spokesman for the company said.</p><p>GlobalFoundries is owned by Mubadala Investment Company, an Abu Dhabi sovereign wealth fund, but is headquartered in the United States. According to data from research firm Trendforce, GlobalFoundries occupies about 7% of the global wafer foundry market in terms of revenue, behind TSMC, Samsung and UMC.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/875739a63d7486f99ea8e73c95c0ec18\" tg-width=\"552\" tg-height=\"279\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>It is worth noting that GlobalFoundries' major customers include Intel's competitor AMD. This year, the two parties reached a long-term chip component supply agreement worth $1.6 billion. This will greatly increase the difficulty of Intel's mergers and acquisitions.</p><p>Intel CEO Pat Gelsinger (Pat Gelsinger) said in March that Intel would return to fabs and announced that it would invest more than US $20 billion to expand wafer production equipment in the United States, as well as at home and abroad. Promote more investment.</p><p>Previously, a number of semiconductor companies announced plans to expand production. For example, TSMC invested US $100 billion in three years to expand production capacity; South Korea's second largest chip factory SK Hynix's $100 billion production expansion plan was approved.</p><p>Qiao An, an analyst at TrendForce, once said that the global demand for semiconductors is still strong, coupled with the tight demand for automotive semiconductors, the delivery cycle has been extended in a market where the production capacity of various processes of wafer foundries is mostly hard to find. Production expansion has become the most direct way to solve the production capacity problem.</p>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c74be4c2a08964ef2daf32217f693b44","relate_stocks":{"INTC":"英特尔","03086":"华夏纳指","09086":"华夏纳指-U"},"is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1191369396","content_text":"7月16日讯，据知情人士透露，英特尔公司正在研究收购格芯（GlobalFoundries）的交易，此举将推动这家半导体巨头为其他科技公司生产更多芯片的计划，并被视为该公司有史以来最大的一笔收购。\n知情人士说，这笔交易对GlobalFoundries的估值可能在300亿美元左右。但并不能保证一定会成功，GlobalFoundries可能会按计划进行首次公开募股(IPO)。GlobalFoundries为阿布扎比政府投资机构穆巴达拉投资公司(Mubadala Investment Co.)所有，但总部设在美国。该公司发言人说，该公司没有与英特尔进行谈判。\n格芯为阿布扎比主权财富基金 Mubadala 投资公司所有，但总部设在美国。据研究机构集邦咨询（Trendforce）数据，按照营收计算，格芯在全球晶圆代工市场占据了约7%的市场份额，位于台积电、三星和联电之后。\n\n值得关注的是，格芯大客户中包括了英特尔的竞争对手AMD。在今年，双方达成了一项长期的芯片组件供应协议，其价值为16亿美元。这将大大加大英特尔的并购难度。\n英特尔首席执行官帕特·基辛格(Pat Gelsinger)在三月份表示，英特尔将重返晶圆厂代工，并宣布将投入超 200亿美元，扩大美国的晶圆生产设备，也会在海內外推动更多投资。\n此前有多家半导体企业宣布了扩产计划，例如台积电三年内投资1000亿美元用于扩大产能；韩国第二大芯片厂SK海力士千亿美元扩产计划获批。\n集邦咨询分析师乔安曾表示，全球半导体需求仍然强劲，加上车用半导体需求吃紧，导致晶圆代工各制程产能多半难求的市况下，交付周期延长。扩产成为解决产能问题的最直接方法。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"INTC":0.9,"03086":0.9,"09086":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1796,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":150370956,"gmtCreate":1624888537575,"gmtModify":1703847122202,"author":{"id":"3581890431374693","authorId":"3581890431374693","name":"王华77","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/bdfbe111612069ded1cd8fb78257fbe7","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3581890431374693","idStr":"3581890431374693"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"?&nbsp;","listText":"?&nbsp;","text":"?","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/150370956","repostId":"1198246953","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"1198246953","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1624873680,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1198246953?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2021-06-28 17:48","market":"hk","language":"zh","title":"The battle for ammunition, this game returns to Hong Kong, and XPeng wins!","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1198246953","media":"华尔街见闻  ","summary":"近几年来，智能电动车行业景象一片繁荣、征伐激烈，俨然成为了春秋战国的缩影。\n激烈的竞争格局自然意味着雄厚资本储备的重要性，蔚来、小鹏和理想纷纷开启了从美股到港股的资本争夺之路。\n据悉，蔚来和理想汽车已","content":"<p>In recent years, the smart electric vehicle industry has been prosperous and fierce, and it has become the epitome of the Spring and Autumn Period and the Warring States Period.</p><p>The fierce competition landscape naturally means the importance of strong capital reserves. Nio, XPeng and Ideal have started the road of capital competition from US stocks to Hong Kong stocks.</p><p>It is reported that Nio and Li Auto have secretly handed in documents related to Hong Kong listing.</p><p><b>However, in this round of battle for \"the first smart electric vehicle stock in Hong Kong stocks\", XPeng Motors took the lead and took the lead in obtaining ammunition.</b></p><p>On June 23, XPeng Automobile passed the hearing of the Hong Kong Stock Exchange.</p><p>On June 24, the latest prospectus documents showed that the company has officially launched the Hong Kong stock listing plan, and will sell 4.25 million shares in Hong Kong public offering and 80.75 million new Class A ordinary shares in international offering, with a maximum price of HK $180 per share. At the same time, 12.75 million over-allotment options were granted to international underwriters.</p><p><b>According to the issue price of HK $180, XPeng Automobile's fundraising amount is expected to be HK $15.3-17.595 billion.</b></p><p>At present, Ali firmly occupies the position of the second largest shareholder.</p><p>According to the prospectus, He XPeng, chairman of XPeng Motors, holds 21.75% of the shares as the largest shareholder, Taobao china holds 11.9%, IDG Capital holds 4.8%, XPeng Motors co-founder and president Xia Heng holds 3.8%, Wuyuan Capital holds 3.2% of the shares, and GGV Capital holds 2.8% of the shares.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2f9e962775d657ebd2a3f75285b59138\" tg-width=\"554\" tg-height=\"485\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><i>Source: Prospectus</i></p><p><b>01</b></p><p><b>Double primary listing first share in three years, significant</b></p><p>The listing of XPeng Automobile in Hong Kong is less than a year after the US stock market rang the bell on August 27 last year.</p><p>Generally speaking, there are three ways for Chinese concept stocks to return to A-shares or Hong Kong stocks: one is to delist from the US stock market and re-list on A-shares or Hong Kong stocks; the other is to retain the US stock market and list it on the Hong Kong stock market for the second time; and the third is to retain the US stock market. The listing status is listed on the US stock market and the Hong Kong stock market respectively, that is, dual primary listing.</p><p><b>Among them, dual primary listings face stricter supervision and need to be jointly supervised by the US Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) and the Hong Kong Securities and Futures Commission (SFC).</b></p><p><b>XPeng Automobile's return to Hong Kong for listing is the third way, which means that the company is listed on two stock exchanges at the same time, and at the same time meets the regulatory requirements of the two places for listed companies.</b></p><p>At present, many companies listed in the United States have chosen the secondary listing of Hong Kong stocks. On March 23, Baidu was listed on the Hong Kong stock market; On March 29, Bilibili (i.e. Station B) was officially listed on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange; Previously, Autohome also announced the start of trading on the main board of the Hong Kong Stock Exchange.</p><p><b>However, XPeng is the first dual primary listing company in Hong Kong and the United States since BeiGene's dual primary listing on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange three years ago.</b></p><p>The Hong Kong Stock Exchange attaches great importance to XPeng's return to Hong Kong for listing. It is said that the Hong Kong Stock Exchange, which has been ringing the bell online for more than a year due to the epidemic, also hopes to make an exception for XPeng Automobile and resume the offline bell ringing ceremony.</p><p>According to the regulations of Hong Kong Stock Connect, after XPeng Automobile is listed on the main board of Hong Kong, it can meet the access conditions of Shanghai-Hong Kong Stock Connect and Shenzhen-Hong Kong Stock Connect, and will directly open up channels for A-share investors. In addition, XPeng Automobile shares can still be freely transferred and traded between Hong Kong and new york exchanges.</p><p>For XPeng, after raising funds in Hong Kong stocks, it can directly open up the RMB market and further extend the capital tentacles; For A-share investors, smart electric vehicles are no longer out of reach.</p><p><b>02</b></p><p><b>Why is the \"first share\" XPeng?</b></p><p>XPeng He, the founder of XPeng Motor, once said after the successful bell of the US stock market: \"It is very important to get more ammunition in order to win the long-distance race.\"</p><p>Behind the rapid acquisition of ammunition is the intelligent technology that XPeng Motors has always been proud of and focused on.</p><p><b>And this is what the Hong Kong Stock Exchange is scarce and desires.</b></p><p>It can be seen from Baidu, which was listed in Hong Kong for the second time before, that what capital respects is its \"first AI stock\" aura.</p><p>Since its establishment in 2015, XPeng Automobile has focused on intelligent technology, and began to build a full-stack self-research system in 2017. According to HIS Markit, XPeng is the only Chinese automotive company to develop its own full-stack autonomous driving software.</p><p><b>Therefore, XPeng vehicles are exactly the smart electric vehicle logo that the Hong Kong Stock Exchange needs to be able to stand up to the title of \"AI\" in the automotive field.</b></p><p>From the price comparison, we can also see the strength of XPeng's return to Hong Kong.</p><p>The IPO price of Hong Kong stocks has reached HK $180. When it was listed on the US stock market last year, XPeng's IPO price was only US $15. Until the US stock market closed on June 25, the price was US $42.16.</p><p><b>03 Full-stack autonomous driving, substantial growth in revenue, accelerated hematopoiesis</b></p><p>As one of the leading smart electric vehicle manufacturers in China, XPeng is the only automotive company in China that develops its own full-stack autonomous driving software, focusing on software, data and hardware technologies as the core to provide autonomous driving, intelligent interconnection and core automotive systems. bring innovation.</p><p>Compared with traditional cars, XPeng cars integrate software and hardware and have become the top five best-selling brands in the Chinese mid-to-high-end electric vehicle market.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1f94ea92d2e1ee5ac28ad4c5112990c5\" tg-width=\"554\" tg-height=\"238\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><i>Source: Prospectus</i></p><p><b>From the perspective of vehicle delivery,</b>XPeng vehicles delivered 29 vehicles, 12,728 vehicles and 27,041 vehicles in 2018, 2019, and 2020 respectively. In the first quarter of 2021, 13,340 vehicles have been delivered, nearly half of the number delivered last year.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/84fbe34a2ccca4e21e9d00dbc0924313\" tg-width=\"483\" tg-height=\"290\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><i>Source: Prospectus</i></p><p>As of March 31, 2021, XPeng has delivered 30,102 G3 models and 23,036 P7 vehicles to customers, and has launched the third smart electric vehicle network P5 in May 2021. According to IHS Markit data, this model is expected to be the first mass-produced smart electric vehicle equipped with lidar after delivery.</p><p><b>From the income level,</b>The total revenue of XPeng Automobile in 2018, 2019 and 2020 was RMB 9.7 million, RMB 2.312 billion and RMB 5.744 billion respectively; In the first quarter of 2021, revenue was 2.951 billion yuan, more than half of last year's total revenue.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1997d350c6943f37311165c86abe7cf0\" tg-width=\"482\" tg-height=\"292\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><i>Source: Prospectus</i></p><p>At the same time, the gross profit margin of XPeng Automobile has been rising all the way, and has increased to 11.2% in the first quarter of 2021, which is expected to catch up with Ideal and even Nio.</p><p>In addition, XPeng disclosed in the prospectus that its automatic assisted driving service XPILOT software revenue accounted for 2.5% of its revenue in the first quarter.</p><p><b>If we can continue to increase the proportion of software services, XPeng will be expected to embark on a development direction different from other companies and realize hematopoietic function as soon as possible.</b></p><p><b>Epilogue</b></p><p>At present, in addition to the three outstanding car manufacturers and traditional car companies, the trend of Internet car manufacturing is also growing.</p><p>Among them, Huawei and 360 specialize in intelligent network services; Baidu, Didi, and Byte have cut into the field of subdivided autonomous driving, while Xiaomi wants to be a complete vehicle owner.</p><p>However, with the advancement of the intelligent trend of new energy vehicles, as an Internet car company with independent research and development software and hardware integration, XPeng still has imaginable space on this broad track in the future.</p><p><b>However, in the face of the situation that there is a wolf in front and a tiger in the back, it is self-evident that the ability to win the \"first stock of smart electric vehicles\" in Hong Kong stocks will support XPeng vehicles.</b></p><p>XPeng has promised to break even by the end of 2023 or 2024, but achieving this goal will undoubtedly require more deliveries, higher R&D investment, and extensive product layout, all of which require more funding.</p><p>The troops and horses didn't move, but food and grass went first.</p><p>Facing the tough battle that may continue in the future, XPeng is ready.</p>","source":"highlight_wallstreetcn","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>The battle for ammunition, this game returns to Hong Kong, and XPeng wins!</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; 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overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nThe battle for ammunition, this game returns to Hong Kong, and XPeng wins!\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">华尔街见闻  </strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-06-28 17:48</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>In recent years, the smart electric vehicle industry has been prosperous and fierce, and it has become the epitome of the Spring and Autumn Period and the Warring States Period.</p><p>The fierce competition landscape naturally means the importance of strong capital reserves. Nio, XPeng and Ideal have started the road of capital competition from US stocks to Hong Kong stocks.</p><p>It is reported that Nio and Li Auto have secretly handed in documents related to Hong Kong listing.</p><p><b>However, in this round of battle for \"the first smart electric vehicle stock in Hong Kong stocks\", XPeng Motors took the lead and took the lead in obtaining ammunition.</b></p><p>On June 23, XPeng Automobile passed the hearing of the Hong Kong Stock Exchange.</p><p>On June 24, the latest prospectus documents showed that the company has officially launched the Hong Kong stock listing plan, and will sell 4.25 million shares in Hong Kong public offering and 80.75 million new Class A ordinary shares in international offering, with a maximum price of HK $180 per share. At the same time, 12.75 million over-allotment options were granted to international underwriters.</p><p><b>According to the issue price of HK $180, XPeng Automobile's fundraising amount is expected to be HK $15.3-17.595 billion.</b></p><p>At present, Ali firmly occupies the position of the second largest shareholder.</p><p>According to the prospectus, He XPeng, chairman of XPeng Motors, holds 21.75% of the shares as the largest shareholder, Taobao china holds 11.9%, IDG Capital holds 4.8%, XPeng Motors co-founder and president Xia Heng holds 3.8%, Wuyuan Capital holds 3.2% of the shares, and GGV Capital holds 2.8% of the shares.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2f9e962775d657ebd2a3f75285b59138\" tg-width=\"554\" tg-height=\"485\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><i>Source: Prospectus</i></p><p><b>01</b></p><p><b>Double primary listing first share in three years, significant</b></p><p>The listing of XPeng Automobile in Hong Kong is less than a year after the US stock market rang the bell on August 27 last year.</p><p>Generally speaking, there are three ways for Chinese concept stocks to return to A-shares or Hong Kong stocks: one is to delist from the US stock market and re-list on A-shares or Hong Kong stocks; the other is to retain the US stock market and list it on the Hong Kong stock market for the second time; and the third is to retain the US stock market. The listing status is listed on the US stock market and the Hong Kong stock market respectively, that is, dual primary listing.</p><p><b>Among them, dual primary listings face stricter supervision and need to be jointly supervised by the US Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) and the Hong Kong Securities and Futures Commission (SFC).</b></p><p><b>XPeng Automobile's return to Hong Kong for listing is the third way, which means that the company is listed on two stock exchanges at the same time, and at the same time meets the regulatory requirements of the two places for listed companies.</b></p><p>At present, many companies listed in the United States have chosen the secondary listing of Hong Kong stocks. On March 23, Baidu was listed on the Hong Kong stock market; On March 29, Bilibili (i.e. Station B) was officially listed on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange; Previously, Autohome also announced the start of trading on the main board of the Hong Kong Stock Exchange.</p><p><b>However, XPeng is the first dual primary listing company in Hong Kong and the United States since BeiGene's dual primary listing on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange three years ago.</b></p><p>The Hong Kong Stock Exchange attaches great importance to XPeng's return to Hong Kong for listing. It is said that the Hong Kong Stock Exchange, which has been ringing the bell online for more than a year due to the epidemic, also hopes to make an exception for XPeng Automobile and resume the offline bell ringing ceremony.</p><p>According to the regulations of Hong Kong Stock Connect, after XPeng Automobile is listed on the main board of Hong Kong, it can meet the access conditions of Shanghai-Hong Kong Stock Connect and Shenzhen-Hong Kong Stock Connect, and will directly open up channels for A-share investors. In addition, XPeng Automobile shares can still be freely transferred and traded between Hong Kong and new york exchanges.</p><p>For XPeng, after raising funds in Hong Kong stocks, it can directly open up the RMB market and further extend the capital tentacles; For A-share investors, smart electric vehicles are no longer out of reach.</p><p><b>02</b></p><p><b>Why is the \"first share\" XPeng?</b></p><p>XPeng He, the founder of XPeng Motor, once said after the successful bell of the US stock market: \"It is very important to get more ammunition in order to win the long-distance race.\"</p><p>Behind the rapid acquisition of ammunition is the intelligent technology that XPeng Motors has always been proud of and focused on.</p><p><b>And this is what the Hong Kong Stock Exchange is scarce and desires.</b></p><p>It can be seen from Baidu, which was listed in Hong Kong for the second time before, that what capital respects is its \"first AI stock\" aura.</p><p>Since its establishment in 2015, XPeng Automobile has focused on intelligent technology, and began to build a full-stack self-research system in 2017. According to HIS Markit, XPeng is the only Chinese automotive company to develop its own full-stack autonomous driving software.</p><p><b>Therefore, XPeng vehicles are exactly the smart electric vehicle logo that the Hong Kong Stock Exchange needs to be able to stand up to the title of \"AI\" in the automotive field.</b></p><p>From the price comparison, we can also see the strength of XPeng's return to Hong Kong.</p><p>The IPO price of Hong Kong stocks has reached HK $180. When it was listed on the US stock market last year, XPeng's IPO price was only US $15. Until the US stock market closed on June 25, the price was US $42.16.</p><p><b>03 Full-stack autonomous driving, substantial growth in revenue, accelerated hematopoiesis</b></p><p>As one of the leading smart electric vehicle manufacturers in China, XPeng is the only automotive company in China that develops its own full-stack autonomous driving software, focusing on software, data and hardware technologies as the core to provide autonomous driving, intelligent interconnection and core automotive systems. bring innovation.</p><p>Compared with traditional cars, XPeng cars integrate software and hardware and have become the top five best-selling brands in the Chinese mid-to-high-end electric vehicle market.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1f94ea92d2e1ee5ac28ad4c5112990c5\" tg-width=\"554\" tg-height=\"238\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><i>Source: Prospectus</i></p><p><b>From the perspective of vehicle delivery,</b>XPeng vehicles delivered 29 vehicles, 12,728 vehicles and 27,041 vehicles in 2018, 2019, and 2020 respectively. In the first quarter of 2021, 13,340 vehicles have been delivered, nearly half of the number delivered last year.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/84fbe34a2ccca4e21e9d00dbc0924313\" tg-width=\"483\" tg-height=\"290\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><i>Source: Prospectus</i></p><p>As of March 31, 2021, XPeng has delivered 30,102 G3 models and 23,036 P7 vehicles to customers, and has launched the third smart electric vehicle network P5 in May 2021. According to IHS Markit data, this model is expected to be the first mass-produced smart electric vehicle equipped with lidar after delivery.</p><p><b>From the income level,</b>The total revenue of XPeng Automobile in 2018, 2019 and 2020 was RMB 9.7 million, RMB 2.312 billion and RMB 5.744 billion respectively; In the first quarter of 2021, revenue was 2.951 billion yuan, more than half of last year's total revenue.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1997d350c6943f37311165c86abe7cf0\" tg-width=\"482\" tg-height=\"292\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><i>Source: Prospectus</i></p><p>At the same time, the gross profit margin of XPeng Automobile has been rising all the way, and has increased to 11.2% in the first quarter of 2021, which is expected to catch up with Ideal and even Nio.</p><p>In addition, XPeng disclosed in the prospectus that its automatic assisted driving service XPILOT software revenue accounted for 2.5% of its revenue in the first quarter.</p><p><b>If we can continue to increase the proportion of software services, XPeng will be expected to embark on a development direction different from other companies and realize hematopoietic function as soon as possible.</b></p><p><b>Epilogue</b></p><p>At present, in addition to the three outstanding car manufacturers and traditional car companies, the trend of Internet car manufacturing is also growing.</p><p>Among them, Huawei and 360 specialize in intelligent network services; Baidu, Didi, and Byte have cut into the field of subdivided autonomous driving, while Xiaomi wants to be a complete vehicle owner.</p><p>However, with the advancement of the intelligent trend of new energy vehicles, as an Internet car company with independent research and development software and hardware integration, XPeng still has imaginable space on this broad track in the future.</p><p><b>However, in the face of the situation that there is a wolf in front and a tiger in the back, it is self-evident that the ability to win the \"first stock of smart electric vehicles\" in Hong Kong stocks will support XPeng vehicles.</b></p><p>XPeng has promised to break even by the end of 2023 or 2024, but achieving this goal will undoubtedly require more deliveries, higher R&D investment, and extensive product layout, all of which require more funding.</p><p>The troops and horses didn't move, but food and grass went first.</p><p>Facing the tough battle that may continue in the future, XPeng is ready.</p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> source：<a href=\"https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s/AcBEeM2yeqBpOLRWdPvThA\">华尔街见闻  </a></p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4aa4c2246df411f68e16a21f6d365311","relate_stocks":{"XPEV":"小鹏汽车","09868":"小鹏汽车-W"},"source_url":"https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s/AcBEeM2yeqBpOLRWdPvThA","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/cc96873d3d23ee6ac10685520df9c100","article_id":"1198246953","content_text":"近几年来，智能电动车行业景象一片繁荣、征伐激烈，俨然成为了春秋战国的缩影。\n激烈的竞争格局自然意味着雄厚资本储备的重要性，蔚来、小鹏和理想纷纷开启了从美股到港股的资本争夺之路。\n据悉，蔚来和理想汽车已经秘交了香港上市相关文件。\n不过在此轮“港股智能电动车第一股”的争战中，小鹏汽车拔得头筹，率先取得弹药。\n6月23日，小鹏汽车通过港交所聆讯。\n6月24日，最新招股文件显示公司已正式启动港股上市计划，将发售包括香港公开发售的425万股及国际发售的8075万股新A类普通股，每股最高定价在180港元。同时，向国际承销商授出1275万股超额配售权。\n按照180港元的发行价，小鹏汽车此次募资额预计为153-175.95亿港元。\n目前阿里系牢牢占据第二大股东的位置。\n招股书显示，小鹏汽车董事长何小鹏持股21.75%为最大股东，淘宝中国持股11.9%，IDG资本持股4.8%，小鹏汽车联合创始人、总裁夏珩持股3.8%，五源资本持股3.2%，纪源资本持股2.8%。\n\n来源：招股书\n01\n三年来的双重主要上市第一股，意义重大\n本次小鹏汽车赴港上市距去年8月27日美股敲钟时隔不足1年。\n一般来说，中概股回归A股或港股有三种途径：其一是从美股退市重新在A股或港股上市，其二是保留美股同时在港股第二次上市，其三是保留美股上市地位在美股和港股分别上市，也就是双重主要上市。\n其中双重主要上市所面对的监管更加严格，需要受到美国证券交易委员会（SEC）和香港证券及期货事务监察委员会（SFC）的共同监管。\n小鹏汽车此次回港上市走的即是第三条路，意味着公司在两个证券交易所同时挂牌，且同时满足两地对上市公司的各项监管要求。\n当前已有不少在美上市企业选择港股二次上市。3月23日，百度在港股上市；3月29日，哔哩哔哩（即B站）正式在港交所挂牌；此前，汽车之家也宣布在香港联交所主板开始交易。\n但小鹏是继3年前百济神州在港交所双重主要上市以来的第一家港美双重主要上市公司。\n港交所对此次小鹏回港上市十分重视，据称，因疫情施行线上敲钟一年多的港交所，也有希望为小鹏汽车破例，恢复线下敲钟仪式。\n根据港股通的规定，小鹏汽车在香港主板上市之后，可以满足沪港通与深港通的接入条件，将直接打通A股投资者渠道。此外，小鹏汽车股票在香港和纽约两个交易所间仍可以自由转移和交易。\n对于小鹏来说，港股募资后能够直接打通人民币市场，将资本触角进一步延伸；而对于A股投资者来说，智能电动车也不再遥不可及。\n02\n为什么“第一股”是小鹏？\n小鹏汽车的创始人何小鹏曾经在美股成功敲钟之后说：“多拿弹药非常重要，才能赢得长跑。”\n快速取得弹药的背后是小鹏汽车一直以来引以为傲并重点投入的智能技术。\n而这正是港交所稀缺和渴望的。\n从此前在港二次上市的百度即可见一斑，资本推崇的正是其的“AI第一股”光环。\n而小鹏汽车从2015年成立起，就主打智能技术，并在2017年开始搭建全栈自研体系。根据HIS Markit的数据，小鹏是中国唯一一家自行开发全栈自动驾驶软件的汽车公司。\n因此，小鹏汽车正是港交所需要的在汽车领域能够顶得起“AI”头衔的智能电动车标的。\n从价格对比也可见此次小鹏回港之强势。\n港股此番招股价格已经高达180港元，而去年在美股挂牌时，小鹏的招股价仅15美元，直到6月25日美股收盘，价格为42.16美元。\n03全栈自动驾驶，收入大幅增长，造血加速\n作为国内领先的智能电动汽车厂商之一，小鹏是国内唯一一家自行开发全栈自动驾驶软件的汽车公司，专注于以软件、数据和硬件技术为核心，为自动驾驶、智能互联和核心汽车系统带来创新。\n与传统汽车相比，小鹏汽车集软硬件为一体，已经成为中国中高端电动汽车市场排名前五的畅销品牌。\n\n来源：招股书\n从车辆交付层面来看，小鹏汽车2018、2019、2020年分别交付29辆、12728辆与27041辆，2021年一季度已经交付13340辆，接近去年全年交付数量的一半。\n\n来源：招股书\n截至2021年3月31日，小鹏已经向客户交付30102辆G3车型，交付23036辆P7，并已经于2021年5月推出第三款智能电动汽车网P5。根据IHS Markit数据，该车型预计在交付后将成为首款配备激光雷达的量产智能电动汽车。\n从收入层面，小鹏汽车2018、2019、2020年的总收入分别为人民币970万元、23.12亿元和57.44亿元；2021年一季度，收入为29.51亿元，超过去年总收入的一半。\n\n来源：招股书\n与此同时小鹏汽车的毛利率一路上行，已经在2021年一季度已经提升至11.2%，有望追上理想甚至蔚来。\n此外，小鹏在招股书中披露，其自动辅助驾驶服务XPILOT软件收入占第一季度营收的2.5%。\n如能继续提升软件服务的占比，小鹏将有望走出一条迥异于其他企业的发展方向，早日实现造血功能。\n尾声\n目前，除造车三杰和传统车企外，互联网造车之风也越刮越大。\n其中，华为、360专攻智能网联服务；百度、滴滴、字节切入细分自动驾驶领域，而小米想要做整车一族。\n不过，随着新能源汽车智能化趋势的推进，作为拥有自主研发软硬件一体化的互联网车企，未来小鹏在这个宽广的赛道上还是具备可想象的空间。\n但面对前有狼后是虎的局面，能够拿下港股“智能电动车第一股”对于小鹏汽车的支撑能力不言而喻。\n小鹏汽车承诺，到2023年底或2024年实现收支平衡，但要实现这一目标无疑需要更多的交付量、更高的研发投入以及广泛的产品布局，而这一切都需要更多的资金。\n兵马未动，粮草先行。\n面对未来可能继续的艰苦战役，小鹏已经做好了准备。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"XPEV":0.9,"09868":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1539,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":123040614,"gmtCreate":1624404766938,"gmtModify":1703835487804,"author":{"id":"3581890431374693","authorId":"3581890431374693","name":"王华77","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/bdfbe111612069ded1cd8fb78257fbe7","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3581890431374693","idStr":"3581890431374693"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"?","listText":"?","text":"?","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/123040614","repostId":"2145494066","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1978,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":182625059,"gmtCreate":1623570643871,"gmtModify":1704206432036,"author":{"id":"3581890431374693","authorId":"3581890431374693","name":"王华77","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/bdfbe111612069ded1cd8fb78257fbe7","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3581890431374693","idStr":"3581890431374693"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"??","listText":"??","text":"??","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/182625059","repostId":"1159028389","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1716,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":181102451,"gmtCreate":1623376765173,"gmtModify":1704202012067,"author":{"id":"3581890431374693","authorId":"3581890431374693","name":"王华77","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/bdfbe111612069ded1cd8fb78257fbe7","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3581890431374693","idStr":"3581890431374693"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"?&nbsp;","listText":"?&nbsp;","text":"?","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/181102451","repostId":"1179767026","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1179767026","kind":"news","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"为用户提供金融资讯、行情、数据，旨在帮助投资者理解世界，做投资决策。","home_visible":1,"media_name":"老虎资讯综合","id":"102","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba"},"pubTimestamp":1623361009,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1179767026?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2021-06-11 05:36","market":"sh","language":"zh","title":"Didi submits listing application, management voting rights exceed 50%","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1179767026","media":"老虎资讯综合","summary":"美东时间6月10日，滴滴出行正式向美国证券交易委员会递交IPO申请，拟于纽交所或纳斯达克挂牌上市，股票代码为“DIDI”。招股书显示，截至2021年3月，滴滴在全球15个国家4000多个城市开展业务，平台全球年活跃用户达到4.93亿。招股书显示，IPO之前，滴滴创始人、CEO程维持股7%，联合创始人、总裁柳青持股1.7%。根据中概股常规的同股不同权的安排，程维柳青合计拥有超过48%的投票权，包括程维柳青在内的滴滴管理层拥有超过50%的投票权。","content":"<p>On June 10, Eastern Time, DIDI Chuxing officially submitted an IPO application to the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC), planning to list on the New York Stock Exchange or Nasdaq under the stock code \"DIDI\". According to the prospectus, as of March 2021, Didi has operated in more than 4,000 cities in 15 countries around the world, and the global annual active users of the platform have reached 493 million.</p><p>According to the prospectus, before the IPO, Didi founder and CEO Cheng maintained 7% of the shares, and co-founder and president Liu Qing held 1.7% of the shares. According to the conventional arrangement of different rights for the same shares in China Stock Exchange, Cheng Weiliuqing has more than 48% of the voting rights in total, and Didi management including Cheng Weiliuqing has more than 50% of the voting rights.</p><p>At present, many domestic Internet companies such as JD.COM, Xiaomi, and Pinduoduo have adopted the model of AB shares, that is, the same shares with different rights. It is precisely through this that founders such as Liu Qiangdong, Lei Jun, and Huang Zheng own shares, although they have not reached the level of absolute control, but they can firmly control the company.</p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Didi submits listing application, management voting rights exceed 50%</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nDidi submits listing application, management voting rights exceed 50%\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/102\">\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">老虎资讯综合 </p>\n<p class=\"h-time smaller\">2021-06-11 05:36</p>\n</div>\n</a>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>On June 10, Eastern Time, DIDI Chuxing officially submitted an IPO application to the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC), planning to list on the New York Stock Exchange or Nasdaq under the stock code \"DIDI\". According to the prospectus, as of March 2021, Didi has operated in more than 4,000 cities in 15 countries around the world, and the global annual active users of the platform have reached 493 million.</p><p>According to the prospectus, before the IPO, Didi founder and CEO Cheng maintained 7% of the shares, and co-founder and president Liu Qing held 1.7% of the shares. According to the conventional arrangement of different rights for the same shares in China Stock Exchange, Cheng Weiliuqing has more than 48% of the voting rights in total, and Didi management including Cheng Weiliuqing has more than 50% of the voting rights.</p><p>At present, many domestic Internet companies such as JD.COM, Xiaomi, and Pinduoduo have adopted the model of AB shares, that is, the same shares with different rights. It is precisely through this that founders such as Liu Qiangdong, Lei Jun, and Huang Zheng own shares, although they have not reached the level of absolute control, but they can firmly control the company.</p>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/bf210b0a9da00c82cb2c925171714e26","relate_stocks":{"DIDI":"滴滴(已退市)"},"is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1179767026","content_text":"美东时间6月10日，滴滴出行正式向美国证券交易委员会（SEC）递交IPO申请，拟于纽交所或纳斯达克挂牌上市，股票代码为“DIDI”。招股书显示，截至2021年3月，滴滴在全球15个国家4000多个城市开展业务，平台全球年活跃用户达到4.93亿。\n招股书显示，IPO之前，滴滴创始人、CEO程维持股7%，联合创始人、总裁柳青持股1.7%。根据中概股常规的同股不同权的安排，程维柳青合计拥有超过48%的投票权，包括程维柳青在内的滴滴管理层拥有超过50%的投票权。\n目前国内京东、小米、拼多多等多家互联网公司都采用了AB股即同股不同权的模式，刘强东、雷军、黄峥等创始人也正是借此拥有的股份尽管没有达到绝对控股的程度，却能够牢牢地掌控住公司。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"DIDI":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2214,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":197762979,"gmtCreate":1621486831691,"gmtModify":1704358426903,"author":{"id":"3581890431374693","authorId":"3581890431374693","name":"王华77","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/bdfbe111612069ded1cd8fb78257fbe7","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3581890431374693","idStr":"3581890431374693"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"?&nbsp;","listText":"?&nbsp;","text":"?","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/197762979","repostId":"1199499763","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1199499763","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1621485133,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1199499763?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2021-05-20 12:32","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"\"Cold thinking\" under \"hot inflation\": Will the Fed policy make a sharp turn?","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1199499763","media":"钟正生经济分析","summary":"美国4月通胀指标上行趋势超过市场预期，亦超过基数效应。","content":"<p><b>SUMMARY</b></p><p>The upward trend of U.S. inflation indicators in April exceeded market expectations and also exceeded the base effect. Against the background of the recent resumption of the rise in commodity prices, the market's concerns about U.S. inflation have further intensified, and concerns about the Federal Reserve's \"misjudgment\" of inflation have also emerged.</p><p>Putting aside the intuitive feeling of \"hot inflation\", starting from the U.S. inflation indicators, we will study and judge the trend of CPI and PCE in the coming year, and then further think about what choices the Federal Reserve will make in the face of the surge in inflation indicators.</p><p><b>1. Why did the U.S. CPI index soar in April?</b>Judging from the CPI sub-data in April, there was a \"temporary\" surge in demand when the U.S. economy restarted, such as the faster rise in demand for food, beverage and transportation. Among them, the used car and truck index rose by 10% month-on-month, the largest monthly increase since the index was generated. This sub-item boosted the total CPI index by more than 1/3. The reasons for the sharp rise in used car prices are mostly \"temporary\":</p><p>1) Car rental companies have insufficient supply of used cars. New cars from American car rental companies are usually sold as used cars one year later (or less). However, the epidemic in 2020 forced car rental companies to significantly reduce the purchase of new cars, resulting in a sharp drop in the number of used cars currently entering the market. 2) The recent chip shortage indirectly affects the supply of used cars. 3) Social distancing increases demand for used cars. 4) Economic risks and consumption downgrades increase the demand for used cars.<b>2. Research and judgment of U.S. CPI trend.</b>Qualitative judgment: The price increase of used cars may slow down in May, and the prices of energy products and services are expected to rise further. The CPI in May may still be positive month-on-month, but the growth rate is likely to be smaller than that in April. Quantitative calculations show that the U.S. CPI is expected to be around 4.4% year-on-year in May, and the CPI growth rate for the whole year of 2021 will be 3.2% year-on-year.</p><p><u>However, after getting rid of the base effect in 2022, the year-on-year growth rate of US CPI is expected to return to around 2%, and the CPI in the first quarter of 2022 is expected to be 2.4% year-on-year.</u></p><p><b>3. The correlation between US CPI and PCE.</b>PCE is a measure of inflation that the Federal Reserve pays more attention to. The U.S. PCE and CPI trends are highly synchronized.<u>However, the volatility of PCE is usually less than that of CPI, and the monthly growth rate of PCE is usually lower</u>。 Reason behind this:</p><p>1) Formula effect. The calculation method of PCE considers the substitution effect between commodities after price changes more than CPI. 2) Weight effect. For example, the weight of housing in PCE is significantly less than CPI. According to data since 2019, the \"weight effect\" is the main factor that differs between PCE and CPI trends. It makes PCE fluctuate less than CPI, that is, the weight effect will inhibit PCE from going too high to a certain extent when CPI rises. 3) Range effect. For example, insurance provided by the employer, government health insurance, etc., are only included in the PCE. 4) Other effects. The seasonal adjustment methods of PCE and CPI are different.<b>4. Research and judgment of PCE trends in the United States.</b></p><p>Historically, when the CPI surged, the CPI data since 2000 had a strong prediction ability for PCE. Considering the base effect and the correlation between CPI and PCE, we predict that the year-on-year value of PCE in April 2021 will be in the range of 3.0-3.3%, the year-on-year value of PCE in May will be in the range of 3.0-3.5%, and the year-on-year value of PCE in 2021 will be 2.4-2.6%. In the first quarter of 2022, PCE is expected to fall back to around or below 2% year-on-year.</p><p><b>5. Thoughts on U.S. inflation trends and Federal Reserve policies.</b></p><p>There are many factors supporting the Fed's judgment that inflation is only \"temporary.\" We add four important dimensions of thinking.<b>First, the judgment of this round of commodity cycle. Second, the stabilizing effect of international trade on prices. The third is the sustainability of the fiscal stimulus effect in the United States. The fourth is the Fed's policy strategy.</b></p><p>(According to the Fed's order from \"calm\" to \"flustered\") There are at least five types of situations that may cause the Fed to (at least externally) ignore inflation:</p><p>1) The Fed clearly believes that inflationary pressures will be temporary. 2) (More likely) The Federal Reserve is not sure whether inflation is temporary and chooses to \"stand still\" for further observation and analysis. 3) (More likely) The Federal Reserve judges that the risk of inflation is relatively high, but believes that maintaining employment is more important than preventing inflation, so it has no choice but to \"stand still\". 4) The Federal Reserve judges that the risk of inflation is relatively high, but does not want to take the \"pot\" of excessive fiscal stimulus. 5) The Federal Reserve judged that the risk of inflation was relatively high, but appeased the market slightly \"against its will\", and secretly may have (or will soon) begun to discuss tapering QE.<u>If the Fed remains dovish, then short-term risk assets may still be positive</u>, the interpretation of \"There is wine today and I am drunk today\". However, the market's suspicion is likely to heat up, and it will be very difficult for the Fed to communicate with the market in the future. The market may easily adjust its expectations for the Fed's policy more \"conservatively\" (that is, predict that the Fed's policy will shift ahead of schedule). Therefore, the risk of the market experiencing volatility and adjustment in the next 1-2 months may increase.</p><p>On May 12-13, 2021, U.S. CPI and PPI data were released one after another, and the gains both exceeded market expectations. After the announcement of the CPI on May 12, the market fluctuated violently. The three major U.S. stock indexes all fell by more than 2%. The S&P 500 Volatility Index (VIX) hit a new high in the past two months. The 10-year U.S. bond yield jumped 5bp to 1.69%.</p><p><b>After the announcement of the CPI indicator, a number of Federal Reserve officials made urgent speeches to stabilize market sentiment and continued to be bearish on inflation risks.</b>Market panic seemed to recede quickly on May 13-14, the stock market rebounded, and the 10-year U.S. bond yield fell back to 1.63%.</p><p>It is true that the current rise in U.S. inflation indicators has exceeded market expectations and exceeded the base effect. Moreover, in the context of the recent resumption of commodity gains, the market's concerns about U.S. inflation have further intensified, and concerns about the Fed's \"misjudgment\" of inflation have also emerged.<b>But does this mean that the inflation level in the United States will continue to rise, and will the Federal Reserve be forced to \"shoot\" in helplessness?</b></p><p>We try to put aside the intuitive feeling of \"hot inflation\" as much as possible and conduct a series of \"cold thinking\":<b>Starting from the U.S. inflation indicator (due to the limited attention and information of PPI, we mainly discuss CPI and PCE), why did the U.S. CPI increase in April and can it be sustained? How does the US CPI correlate with the PCE (Personal Consumption Expenditures Index), an inflation measure that the Federal Reserve pays more attention to? How will the Fed respond to higher inflation metrics?</b></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d815795b7fa898d0d8ab1231d28b34b5\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"432\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><b>1. Interpretation of U.S. CPI in April and research and judgment of CPI trends</b></p><p><b>1. Why the U.S. CPI indicator soared in April: the story behind the price increase of used cars</b></p><p>The U.S. CPI in April was 4.2% year-on-year, the highest growth rate since September 2008; 0.8% month-on-month, and market expectations were 0.2%. The core CPI in April was 3.0% year-on-year; 0.9% month-on-month, and market expectations were 0.3%. Overall, the growth rates of U.S. CPI and core CPI in April significantly exceeded market expectations.</p><p>From January to April 2021, the month-on-month growth rates of U.S. CPI were 0.3%, 0.4%, 0.6% and 0.8% respectively, with an average of 0.5%, while the monthly average CPI in 2015-2019 and 2016-2019 were only 0.15% and 0.15% respectively. 0.18%. It can be seen that the reason for the soaring CPI in the United States in 2021 is not as simple as the base effect.</p><p>The performance of U.S. CPI sub-items in April showed three major characteristics:</p><p><b>First, the price increase of used cars is the main driving force.</b>The used car and truck index rose by 10% month-on-month, which was the largest monthly increase since the CPI index was generated in 1953. The previous value was only 0.5%. This sub-item boosted the total CPI index in April by more than 1/3. The price of used cars has significantly boosted the commodity sub-items and even the core CPI.</p><p><b>Why are used car prices soaring in the United States? Most of them are \"temporary\" contradictions between supply and demand after the epidemic:</b></p><p>1) Car rental companies have insufficient supply of used cars. New cars from American car rental companies are generally sold as used cars after a year (or less). In 2020, COVID-19 pandemic forced car rental companies to drastically cut new car purchases, resulting in a sharp drop in the number of used cars currently entering the market.</p><p>2) The recent chip shortage indirectly affects the supply of used cars. The shortage of chips has slowed down the manufacturing of new cars, and then the replacement of used cars has also slowed down, and the number of used cars put on the market has become more limited.</p><p>3) Social distancing increases demand for used cars. After the epidemic, a large number of residents reduced public transportation, worked remotely, moved to suburbs, etc., and the demand for used cars increased.</p><p>4) Economic risks and consumption downgrades increase the demand for used cars. To save money during times of volatile economic conditions, especially when new car and truck prices are at historically high levels, U.S. residents tend to choose used vehicles.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/434743dea03c373e95b3ca9b6572d174\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"822\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><b>Second, energy prices fell instead of rising month-on-month.</b>In April, the energy sub-item decreased slightly by 0.1% month-on-month, and energy products (-1.4%), gasoline (-1.4%) and crude oil (-3.2%) all decreased month-on-month, which is in line with the recent rise in commodity prices that we have intuitively felt. deviation. However, all energy product sub-items still rose sharply by 25.1% year-on-year. The weight of this sub-item in the CPI was 6.9%, and its contribution to the year-on-year growth rate of CPI in April was 1.73 percentage points.</p><p><b>Third, transportation services lead the increase in service sub-items.</b>In April, the transportation service sub-item rose by 2.9% month-on-month, significantly ahead of the 1.8% of the previous value; It increased by 5.6% year-on-year, significantly exceeding the 2.5% year-on-year of all service sub-items. Among them, aviation expenses and motor vehicle insurance increased by 10.2% and 2.5% respectively from the previous month. The transportation service sub-item has an important pull on all service sub-items and even the core CPI.</p><p>Taken together, the April CPI data reflects that,<b>When the U.S. economy restarted, there was a \"temporary\" surge in demand, reflected in a faster rise in demand for food, beverage and transportation.</b>With the control of the epidemic situation in the United States and the recovery of offline consumption and travel scenarios, it is understandable that the related demand growth will drive prices to rise in the short term.</p><p><b>2. Research and judgment of U.S. CPI trend: base effect and \"temporary\" factors</b></p><p>We predict that the month-on-month growth rate of U.S. CPI is expected to slow down in May 2021, the CPI may drop significantly year-on-year in the second half of the year, and the CPI is expected to return to \"normal\" in 2022.</p><p>First, in terms of used cars and trucks, the above-mentioned contradiction between supply and demand may cause prices to remain high in 2021.<b>But it is difficult to rise rapidly again in May.</b>Moreover, the contradiction between supply and demand is mostly \"temporary\" and is expected to be basically eliminated in 2022, helping the growth rate of US CPI and core CPI fall back in 2022.</p><p>Second, although the energy sub-item declined month-on-month in April, combined with the large gains after mid-April, the energy sub-item may rebound month-on-month in May. However, we are cautious about the medium and long-term trend of energy prices (especially crude oil). The main reason is that the elasticity of international crude oil supply is still strong at this stage, and the growth rate of energy sub-items in 2022 is likely to return to at least the historical average level.</p><p>Third, the price of service items may rise further due to the continued improvement of the epidemic situation in the United States and the recovery of consumption scenarios. But the question that needs to be considered now is, what is the relationship between the recovery of service consumption in the United States and commodity consumption? Are the two more \"complementary products\" or \"substitutes\"?</p><p>We believe that with the recovery of service consumption, the strong durable goods consumption in the United States is likely to fall month-on-month, and the non-durable goods consumption may level out under the hedging effect of complementarity and substitution.</p><p>Taken together, the U.S. CPI in May may still be positive month-on-month, but it is likely to be less than the growth rate in April. This means that due to base reasons, the year-on-year CPI reading in May may be higher than in April. However, after getting rid of the base effect in 2022, the year-on-year growth rate of U.S. CPI is expected to return to around 2%.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/562a892c44ea2161d2b38056da660770\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"832\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><b>2. Research and judgment on the correlation between US CPI and PCE and PCE trend</b></p><p><b>1. Correlation between US CPI and PCE: systematic differences</b></p><p>The U.S. Personal Consumption Expenditure Index (PCE) is a measure of inflation that the Federal Reserve pays more attention to. Its relationship with CPI is:</p><p>1) In terms of statistical sources, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) is responsible for counting CPI, based on questionnaires of consumers; The Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) is responsible for counting and measuring PCE, based on the CPI values calculated by BLS and other information collected by it.</p><p>2) Functionally,<b>Both are indicators to measure prices.</b>CPI may receive more attention, its statistical history is longer, and CPI is widely used in the United States, such as adjusting social security expenditures and adjusting interest rates of many financial products (such as TIPS inflation-protected Treasury Bond). PCE is the reference for the Fed's inflation target.</p><p>3) Looking at the trend of indicators,<b>Historically, the trends of PCE and CPI have a high degree of synchronization, but the volatility of PCE is usually less than that of CPI, and the monthly year-on-year growth rate of PCE is systematically lower than that of CPI.</b>We estimate that from January 2000 to March 2021, the correlation coefficient between U.S. PCE and CPI (monthly year-on-year growth rate, the same below) was 0.983, and the correlation coefficient between core PCE and core CPI was 0.966; The monthly volatility of PCE is 0.93%, and the volatility of CPI is 1.23%; The PCE month-on-month average is 1.81%, and the CPI average is 2.12%.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/11f02447cc98b24312c9cd9fe75b47ba\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"538\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>According to official data from the Federal Reserve, there are four reasons for the difference between PCE and CPI values:</p><p><b>1) formula effects,</b>The PCE calculation is based on the chain Fisher formula, while the CPI is based on the modified Laspeyres formula. The key difference is that the PCE takes into account the substitution effect between goods after price changes more than the CPI. For example, if the price of a commodity rises and residents' purchases decrease, the PCE calculation will use a new \"basket\" to reflect changes in people's consumption behavior.</p><p><b>2) weight effect,</b>That is, the same goods in the two \"baskets\" are given different weights. The weight of CPI uses the weight in the survey of residents' purchases, while PCE uses the weight in the survey of enterprises' sales of products. For example, the weight of housing in the U.S. PCE is significantly smaller than the CPI. In 2021Q1, the seasonally adjusted quarter-on-quarter annualized rate of PCE was 0.31 percentage points lower than the CPI due to different housing weights.</p><p>According to data since 2019, the \"weight effect\" is the main factor that differs between PCE and CPI trends. It makes PCE fluctuate less than CPI, that is, the weight effect will inhibit PCE from going too high to a certain extent when CPI rises.</p><p><b>3) Range effect,</b>That is, the two \"baskets\" cover different commodities. The CPI only covers residents' out-of-pocket spending on goods and services, while the PCE also covers spending by nonprofit agencies that serve households. For example, insurance provided by the employer, government health insurance, etc., are only included in the PCE.</p><p><b>4) other effects,</b>Including seasonally adjusted differences, price differences and residual differences, etc. The seasonal adjustment methods of PCE and CPI are different.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/183c32625966a0b7ca483a37388c65f0\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"673\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><b>2. U.S. PCE trend research and judgment: forecast based on CPI data</b></p><p>The U.S. CPI data since 2000 has a strong prediction ability for PCE. We tried to use two sets of U.S. CPI monthly and year-on-year data to perform OLS model fitting on the U.S. PCE monthly and year-on-year (fit 1 uses data from January 1960 to March 2021, and fit 2 uses data from January 2000 to March 2021), and focus on observing the fitting situation of the period of higher CPI since 1990 (more than 2% monthly year-on-year).</p><p>We found that the PCE fitting value with CPI data since 2000 is more consistent with the actual value. Especially in the period when the year-on-year growth rate of CPI is soaring, it can usually be observed that the actual growth rate of CPI > PCE fit 1 > PCE fit 2 > = the actual growth rate of PCE (Chart 7). According to the April U.S. CPI month-on-month (4.2%), the April PCE fit values of the two models were 3.7% and 3.3%, respectively.</p><p>Considering the base effect and the correlation between CPI and PCE, we predict that the year-on-year value of PCE in April 2021 will be in the range of 3.0-3.3%, and the year-on-year value of PCE in May will be in the range of 3.0-3.5% (or the high point of the whole year). The year-on-year value of PCE is in the range of 2.4-2.6% (slightly higher than the 2.4% median forecast of the Federal Reserve in March), and the year-on-year growth rate of PCE in the first quarter of 2022 is expected to fall back to around 2% or below.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8d593ef0e3bd5ca806708e8683a5c5e8\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"578\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/84a5323627607cfa343eba4f82e43254\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"878\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><b>3. Thoughts on U.S. inflation trends and Federal Reserve policies</b></p><p>After the U.S. CPI was released in April, Fed officials \"did not hesitate\" to be bearish on inflation risks.<u>Bloomberg issued a document stating that</u><u><b>There may be six major factors supporting the Fed's judgment: inflation expectations, sluggish employment, price stickiness, disruptive technology, pricing power, and base effect</b></u><b>。</b>On this basis, we add additional<b>Four important dimensions of thinking</b>：</p><p><b>First, the judgment of this round of commodity cycle.</b>We are more cautious about this round of commodity cycle (refer to the report \"Is the\" super cycle \"of commodities coming?\").</p><p>The key reason is that the driving force of this round of commodity price increases is more on the supply side than on the demand side. In this round of commodity cycle, the only thing that is expected to become a \"super engine\" on the global demand side may be the pull of aggregate demand driven by the transformation of China, the United States and even the global \"green economy\". However, there is still great uncertainty about whether the release rhythm of this process can be faster than the self-regulation of the supply side.</p><p><b>Second, the stabilizing effect of international trade on prices.</b>Starting from the second half of 2020, the economic recovery in Europe and the United States has boosted exports from emerging markets around the world (especially Asia). In the first quarter of 2021, the U.S. trade deficit expanded to a record, Asian exports remained strong, and European manufacturing also quietly made efforts.</p><p><b>The United States under Biden's leadership is expected to be more open to international trade, and commodity price pressures may also become a catalyst for countries to repair trade relations.</b>For example, on May 17, the metal tariff war between the EU and the United States was announced to be suspended. From this point of view, in the future, the United States is expected to continue to control its own consumption and production costs through international division of labor, and curb inflation to a certain extent.</p><p><b>The third is the sustainability of the fiscal stimulus effect in the United States.</b>On the one hand, the $1.9 trillion bailout bill introduced by Biden in January this year is \"one-time.\" With the recent unsatisfactory recovery of the job market, many states in the United States have begun to reduce or suspend the payment of unemployment assistance. On the other hand, the Republican Party's attitude towards Biden's infrastructure plan has become clearer recently. For example, the media predicts that the scale of the revised infrastructure plan to be announced by the Republican Party on May 18 is only US $568 billion, which is only a quarter of Biden's 2.3 trillion proposal.</p><p>What's more, the phenomenon of \"slow employment + fast inflation\" shown in the just-released U.S. economic data in April may further trigger public controversy about the effects and side effects of fiscal stimulus. If the scale of infrastructure plans shrinks significantly in the future, whether it is its upward effect on the U.S. inflation center or its blow to public inflation expectations, it may further curb the rise in inflation.</p><p><b>The fourth is the Fed's policy strategy.</b>Regarding the future inflation trend, except for the \"base effect\", which is an \"objective problem\" that can be solved through careful calculation, the rest are mostly \"subjective questions\". We believe that if we break down (in order of the Fed from \"calm\" to \"flustered\"), there are at least five types of situations that may cause the Fed to (at least externally) ignore inflation:</p><p><b>First, the Federal Reserve currently has a relatively clear judgment that inflationary pressure in the United States will be temporary and controllable.</b></p><p><b>Second (more likely), the Fed is not sure whether inflation is temporary, but it is difficult to conclude that inflation risks are worrying based on the higher CPI in April.</b>The most rational choice in \"uncertainty\" is to \"stand still\" for further observation and analysis.</p><p><b>Third (more likely), the Federal Reserve may have judged that the risk of inflation is high, but the foundation for employment and the recovery of the real economy is not yet solid, and believes that maintaining employment is more important than preventing inflation.</b>Therefore, I have no choice but to \"stand still\".</p><p><b>Fourth, the Federal Reserve may have judged that the risk of inflation is high, but believes that this is not caused by monetary policy, but the \"pot\" of the Biden administration's excessive fiscal stimulus.</b>Then try to maintain the rhythm of \"no sharp turns\" in order to demonstrate the rationality of monetary policy.</p><p><b>Fifth, the Federal Reserve may have judged that the risk of inflation is high, but considering that monetary policy needs to \"not make a sharp turn\" to avoid market shocks under the \"tightening panic\",</b>Therefore, we have to appease the market slightly \"against our will\", but secretly we may have (or will soon) begun to discuss reducing QE.</p><p><b>But no matter what the situation is, two things can be relatively certain: First, there is a high probability that the Fed will not make a \"sharp turn\". Second, we need to be alert to the risk of market fluctuations.</b></p><p>In the short term, if the Fed remains dovish, market risk appetite may not necessarily fall significantly, and risky assets may still perform positively, interpreting \"there is wine today and drunk today.\" But when the Fed and the market face too many \"subjective questions\", the market's suspicion is likely to heat up, which at least means that it will be very difficult for the Fed to communicate with the market in the future.</p><p>Looking further, the market may easily adjust its expectations for the rhythm of the Fed's policy to be more \"conservative\", that is, predict that the Fed's policy will shift ahead of schedule. Therefore, the risk of the market experiencing volatility and adjustment in the next 1-2 months may increase.</p>","source":"lsy1602814587747","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>\"Cold thinking\" under \"hot inflation\": Will the Fed policy make a sharp turn?</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n\"Cold thinking\" under \"hot inflation\": Will the Fed policy make a sharp turn?\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">钟正生经济分析</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-05-20 12:32</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><b>SUMMARY</b></p><p>The upward trend of U.S. inflation indicators in April exceeded market expectations and also exceeded the base effect. Against the background of the recent resumption of the rise in commodity prices, the market's concerns about U.S. inflation have further intensified, and concerns about the Federal Reserve's \"misjudgment\" of inflation have also emerged.</p><p>Putting aside the intuitive feeling of \"hot inflation\", starting from the U.S. inflation indicators, we will study and judge the trend of CPI and PCE in the coming year, and then further think about what choices the Federal Reserve will make in the face of the surge in inflation indicators.</p><p><b>1. Why did the U.S. CPI index soar in April?</b>Judging from the CPI sub-data in April, there was a \"temporary\" surge in demand when the U.S. economy restarted, such as the faster rise in demand for food, beverage and transportation. Among them, the used car and truck index rose by 10% month-on-month, the largest monthly increase since the index was generated. This sub-item boosted the total CPI index by more than 1/3. The reasons for the sharp rise in used car prices are mostly \"temporary\":</p><p>1) Car rental companies have insufficient supply of used cars. New cars from American car rental companies are usually sold as used cars one year later (or less). However, the epidemic in 2020 forced car rental companies to significantly reduce the purchase of new cars, resulting in a sharp drop in the number of used cars currently entering the market. 2) The recent chip shortage indirectly affects the supply of used cars. 3) Social distancing increases demand for used cars. 4) Economic risks and consumption downgrades increase the demand for used cars.<b>2. Research and judgment of U.S. CPI trend.</b>Qualitative judgment: The price increase of used cars may slow down in May, and the prices of energy products and services are expected to rise further. The CPI in May may still be positive month-on-month, but the growth rate is likely to be smaller than that in April. Quantitative calculations show that the U.S. CPI is expected to be around 4.4% year-on-year in May, and the CPI growth rate for the whole year of 2021 will be 3.2% year-on-year.</p><p><u>However, after getting rid of the base effect in 2022, the year-on-year growth rate of US CPI is expected to return to around 2%, and the CPI in the first quarter of 2022 is expected to be 2.4% year-on-year.</u></p><p><b>3. The correlation between US CPI and PCE.</b>PCE is a measure of inflation that the Federal Reserve pays more attention to. The U.S. PCE and CPI trends are highly synchronized.<u>However, the volatility of PCE is usually less than that of CPI, and the monthly growth rate of PCE is usually lower</u>。 Reason behind this:</p><p>1) Formula effect. The calculation method of PCE considers the substitution effect between commodities after price changes more than CPI. 2) Weight effect. For example, the weight of housing in PCE is significantly less than CPI. According to data since 2019, the \"weight effect\" is the main factor that differs between PCE and CPI trends. It makes PCE fluctuate less than CPI, that is, the weight effect will inhibit PCE from going too high to a certain extent when CPI rises. 3) Range effect. For example, insurance provided by the employer, government health insurance, etc., are only included in the PCE. 4) Other effects. The seasonal adjustment methods of PCE and CPI are different.<b>4. Research and judgment of PCE trends in the United States.</b></p><p>Historically, when the CPI surged, the CPI data since 2000 had a strong prediction ability for PCE. Considering the base effect and the correlation between CPI and PCE, we predict that the year-on-year value of PCE in April 2021 will be in the range of 3.0-3.3%, the year-on-year value of PCE in May will be in the range of 3.0-3.5%, and the year-on-year value of PCE in 2021 will be 2.4-2.6%. In the first quarter of 2022, PCE is expected to fall back to around or below 2% year-on-year.</p><p><b>5. Thoughts on U.S. inflation trends and Federal Reserve policies.</b></p><p>There are many factors supporting the Fed's judgment that inflation is only \"temporary.\" We add four important dimensions of thinking.<b>First, the judgment of this round of commodity cycle. Second, the stabilizing effect of international trade on prices. The third is the sustainability of the fiscal stimulus effect in the United States. The fourth is the Fed's policy strategy.</b></p><p>(According to the Fed's order from \"calm\" to \"flustered\") There are at least five types of situations that may cause the Fed to (at least externally) ignore inflation:</p><p>1) The Fed clearly believes that inflationary pressures will be temporary. 2) (More likely) The Federal Reserve is not sure whether inflation is temporary and chooses to \"stand still\" for further observation and analysis. 3) (More likely) The Federal Reserve judges that the risk of inflation is relatively high, but believes that maintaining employment is more important than preventing inflation, so it has no choice but to \"stand still\". 4) The Federal Reserve judges that the risk of inflation is relatively high, but does not want to take the \"pot\" of excessive fiscal stimulus. 5) The Federal Reserve judged that the risk of inflation was relatively high, but appeased the market slightly \"against its will\", and secretly may have (or will soon) begun to discuss tapering QE.<u>If the Fed remains dovish, then short-term risk assets may still be positive</u>, the interpretation of \"There is wine today and I am drunk today\". However, the market's suspicion is likely to heat up, and it will be very difficult for the Fed to communicate with the market in the future. The market may easily adjust its expectations for the Fed's policy more \"conservatively\" (that is, predict that the Fed's policy will shift ahead of schedule). Therefore, the risk of the market experiencing volatility and adjustment in the next 1-2 months may increase.</p><p>On May 12-13, 2021, U.S. CPI and PPI data were released one after another, and the gains both exceeded market expectations. After the announcement of the CPI on May 12, the market fluctuated violently. The three major U.S. stock indexes all fell by more than 2%. The S&P 500 Volatility Index (VIX) hit a new high in the past two months. The 10-year U.S. bond yield jumped 5bp to 1.69%.</p><p><b>After the announcement of the CPI indicator, a number of Federal Reserve officials made urgent speeches to stabilize market sentiment and continued to be bearish on inflation risks.</b>Market panic seemed to recede quickly on May 13-14, the stock market rebounded, and the 10-year U.S. bond yield fell back to 1.63%.</p><p>It is true that the current rise in U.S. inflation indicators has exceeded market expectations and exceeded the base effect. Moreover, in the context of the recent resumption of commodity gains, the market's concerns about U.S. inflation have further intensified, and concerns about the Fed's \"misjudgment\" of inflation have also emerged.<b>But does this mean that the inflation level in the United States will continue to rise, and will the Federal Reserve be forced to \"shoot\" in helplessness?</b></p><p>We try to put aside the intuitive feeling of \"hot inflation\" as much as possible and conduct a series of \"cold thinking\":<b>Starting from the U.S. inflation indicator (due to the limited attention and information of PPI, we mainly discuss CPI and PCE), why did the U.S. CPI increase in April and can it be sustained? How does the US CPI correlate with the PCE (Personal Consumption Expenditures Index), an inflation measure that the Federal Reserve pays more attention to? How will the Fed respond to higher inflation metrics?</b></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d815795b7fa898d0d8ab1231d28b34b5\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"432\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><b>1. Interpretation of U.S. CPI in April and research and judgment of CPI trends</b></p><p><b>1. Why the U.S. CPI indicator soared in April: the story behind the price increase of used cars</b></p><p>The U.S. CPI in April was 4.2% year-on-year, the highest growth rate since September 2008; 0.8% month-on-month, and market expectations were 0.2%. The core CPI in April was 3.0% year-on-year; 0.9% month-on-month, and market expectations were 0.3%. Overall, the growth rates of U.S. CPI and core CPI in April significantly exceeded market expectations.</p><p>From January to April 2021, the month-on-month growth rates of U.S. CPI were 0.3%, 0.4%, 0.6% and 0.8% respectively, with an average of 0.5%, while the monthly average CPI in 2015-2019 and 2016-2019 were only 0.15% and 0.15% respectively. 0.18%. It can be seen that the reason for the soaring CPI in the United States in 2021 is not as simple as the base effect.</p><p>The performance of U.S. CPI sub-items in April showed three major characteristics:</p><p><b>First, the price increase of used cars is the main driving force.</b>The used car and truck index rose by 10% month-on-month, which was the largest monthly increase since the CPI index was generated in 1953. The previous value was only 0.5%. This sub-item boosted the total CPI index in April by more than 1/3. The price of used cars has significantly boosted the commodity sub-items and even the core CPI.</p><p><b>Why are used car prices soaring in the United States? Most of them are \"temporary\" contradictions between supply and demand after the epidemic:</b></p><p>1) Car rental companies have insufficient supply of used cars. New cars from American car rental companies are generally sold as used cars after a year (or less). In 2020, COVID-19 pandemic forced car rental companies to drastically cut new car purchases, resulting in a sharp drop in the number of used cars currently entering the market.</p><p>2) The recent chip shortage indirectly affects the supply of used cars. The shortage of chips has slowed down the manufacturing of new cars, and then the replacement of used cars has also slowed down, and the number of used cars put on the market has become more limited.</p><p>3) Social distancing increases demand for used cars. After the epidemic, a large number of residents reduced public transportation, worked remotely, moved to suburbs, etc., and the demand for used cars increased.</p><p>4) Economic risks and consumption downgrades increase the demand for used cars. To save money during times of volatile economic conditions, especially when new car and truck prices are at historically high levels, U.S. residents tend to choose used vehicles.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/434743dea03c373e95b3ca9b6572d174\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"822\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><b>Second, energy prices fell instead of rising month-on-month.</b>In April, the energy sub-item decreased slightly by 0.1% month-on-month, and energy products (-1.4%), gasoline (-1.4%) and crude oil (-3.2%) all decreased month-on-month, which is in line with the recent rise in commodity prices that we have intuitively felt. deviation. However, all energy product sub-items still rose sharply by 25.1% year-on-year. The weight of this sub-item in the CPI was 6.9%, and its contribution to the year-on-year growth rate of CPI in April was 1.73 percentage points.</p><p><b>Third, transportation services lead the increase in service sub-items.</b>In April, the transportation service sub-item rose by 2.9% month-on-month, significantly ahead of the 1.8% of the previous value; It increased by 5.6% year-on-year, significantly exceeding the 2.5% year-on-year of all service sub-items. Among them, aviation expenses and motor vehicle insurance increased by 10.2% and 2.5% respectively from the previous month. The transportation service sub-item has an important pull on all service sub-items and even the core CPI.</p><p>Taken together, the April CPI data reflects that,<b>When the U.S. economy restarted, there was a \"temporary\" surge in demand, reflected in a faster rise in demand for food, beverage and transportation.</b>With the control of the epidemic situation in the United States and the recovery of offline consumption and travel scenarios, it is understandable that the related demand growth will drive prices to rise in the short term.</p><p><b>2. Research and judgment of U.S. CPI trend: base effect and \"temporary\" factors</b></p><p>We predict that the month-on-month growth rate of U.S. CPI is expected to slow down in May 2021, the CPI may drop significantly year-on-year in the second half of the year, and the CPI is expected to return to \"normal\" in 2022.</p><p>First, in terms of used cars and trucks, the above-mentioned contradiction between supply and demand may cause prices to remain high in 2021.<b>But it is difficult to rise rapidly again in May.</b>Moreover, the contradiction between supply and demand is mostly \"temporary\" and is expected to be basically eliminated in 2022, helping the growth rate of US CPI and core CPI fall back in 2022.</p><p>Second, although the energy sub-item declined month-on-month in April, combined with the large gains after mid-April, the energy sub-item may rebound month-on-month in May. However, we are cautious about the medium and long-term trend of energy prices (especially crude oil). The main reason is that the elasticity of international crude oil supply is still strong at this stage, and the growth rate of energy sub-items in 2022 is likely to return to at least the historical average level.</p><p>Third, the price of service items may rise further due to the continued improvement of the epidemic situation in the United States and the recovery of consumption scenarios. But the question that needs to be considered now is, what is the relationship between the recovery of service consumption in the United States and commodity consumption? Are the two more \"complementary products\" or \"substitutes\"?</p><p>We believe that with the recovery of service consumption, the strong durable goods consumption in the United States is likely to fall month-on-month, and the non-durable goods consumption may level out under the hedging effect of complementarity and substitution.</p><p>Taken together, the U.S. CPI in May may still be positive month-on-month, but it is likely to be less than the growth rate in April. This means that due to base reasons, the year-on-year CPI reading in May may be higher than in April. However, after getting rid of the base effect in 2022, the year-on-year growth rate of U.S. CPI is expected to return to around 2%.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/562a892c44ea2161d2b38056da660770\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"832\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><b>2. Research and judgment on the correlation between US CPI and PCE and PCE trend</b></p><p><b>1. Correlation between US CPI and PCE: systematic differences</b></p><p>The U.S. Personal Consumption Expenditure Index (PCE) is a measure of inflation that the Federal Reserve pays more attention to. Its relationship with CPI is:</p><p>1) In terms of statistical sources, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) is responsible for counting CPI, based on questionnaires of consumers; The Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) is responsible for counting and measuring PCE, based on the CPI values calculated by BLS and other information collected by it.</p><p>2) Functionally,<b>Both are indicators to measure prices.</b>CPI may receive more attention, its statistical history is longer, and CPI is widely used in the United States, such as adjusting social security expenditures and adjusting interest rates of many financial products (such as TIPS inflation-protected Treasury Bond). PCE is the reference for the Fed's inflation target.</p><p>3) Looking at the trend of indicators,<b>Historically, the trends of PCE and CPI have a high degree of synchronization, but the volatility of PCE is usually less than that of CPI, and the monthly year-on-year growth rate of PCE is systematically lower than that of CPI.</b>We estimate that from January 2000 to March 2021, the correlation coefficient between U.S. PCE and CPI (monthly year-on-year growth rate, the same below) was 0.983, and the correlation coefficient between core PCE and core CPI was 0.966; The monthly volatility of PCE is 0.93%, and the volatility of CPI is 1.23%; The PCE month-on-month average is 1.81%, and the CPI average is 2.12%.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/11f02447cc98b24312c9cd9fe75b47ba\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"538\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>According to official data from the Federal Reserve, there are four reasons for the difference between PCE and CPI values:</p><p><b>1) formula effects,</b>The PCE calculation is based on the chain Fisher formula, while the CPI is based on the modified Laspeyres formula. The key difference is that the PCE takes into account the substitution effect between goods after price changes more than the CPI. For example, if the price of a commodity rises and residents' purchases decrease, the PCE calculation will use a new \"basket\" to reflect changes in people's consumption behavior.</p><p><b>2) weight effect,</b>That is, the same goods in the two \"baskets\" are given different weights. The weight of CPI uses the weight in the survey of residents' purchases, while PCE uses the weight in the survey of enterprises' sales of products. For example, the weight of housing in the U.S. PCE is significantly smaller than the CPI. In 2021Q1, the seasonally adjusted quarter-on-quarter annualized rate of PCE was 0.31 percentage points lower than the CPI due to different housing weights.</p><p>According to data since 2019, the \"weight effect\" is the main factor that differs between PCE and CPI trends. It makes PCE fluctuate less than CPI, that is, the weight effect will inhibit PCE from going too high to a certain extent when CPI rises.</p><p><b>3) Range effect,</b>That is, the two \"baskets\" cover different commodities. The CPI only covers residents' out-of-pocket spending on goods and services, while the PCE also covers spending by nonprofit agencies that serve households. For example, insurance provided by the employer, government health insurance, etc., are only included in the PCE.</p><p><b>4) other effects,</b>Including seasonally adjusted differences, price differences and residual differences, etc. The seasonal adjustment methods of PCE and CPI are different.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/183c32625966a0b7ca483a37388c65f0\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"673\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><b>2. U.S. PCE trend research and judgment: forecast based on CPI data</b></p><p>The U.S. CPI data since 2000 has a strong prediction ability for PCE. We tried to use two sets of U.S. CPI monthly and year-on-year data to perform OLS model fitting on the U.S. PCE monthly and year-on-year (fit 1 uses data from January 1960 to March 2021, and fit 2 uses data from January 2000 to March 2021), and focus on observing the fitting situation of the period of higher CPI since 1990 (more than 2% monthly year-on-year).</p><p>We found that the PCE fitting value with CPI data since 2000 is more consistent with the actual value. Especially in the period when the year-on-year growth rate of CPI is soaring, it can usually be observed that the actual growth rate of CPI > PCE fit 1 > PCE fit 2 > = the actual growth rate of PCE (Chart 7). According to the April U.S. CPI month-on-month (4.2%), the April PCE fit values of the two models were 3.7% and 3.3%, respectively.</p><p>Considering the base effect and the correlation between CPI and PCE, we predict that the year-on-year value of PCE in April 2021 will be in the range of 3.0-3.3%, and the year-on-year value of PCE in May will be in the range of 3.0-3.5% (or the high point of the whole year). The year-on-year value of PCE is in the range of 2.4-2.6% (slightly higher than the 2.4% median forecast of the Federal Reserve in March), and the year-on-year growth rate of PCE in the first quarter of 2022 is expected to fall back to around 2% or below.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8d593ef0e3bd5ca806708e8683a5c5e8\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"578\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/84a5323627607cfa343eba4f82e43254\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"878\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><b>3. Thoughts on U.S. inflation trends and Federal Reserve policies</b></p><p>After the U.S. CPI was released in April, Fed officials \"did not hesitate\" to be bearish on inflation risks.<u>Bloomberg issued a document stating that</u><u><b>There may be six major factors supporting the Fed's judgment: inflation expectations, sluggish employment, price stickiness, disruptive technology, pricing power, and base effect</b></u><b>。</b>On this basis, we add additional<b>Four important dimensions of thinking</b>：</p><p><b>First, the judgment of this round of commodity cycle.</b>We are more cautious about this round of commodity cycle (refer to the report \"Is the\" super cycle \"of commodities coming?\").</p><p>The key reason is that the driving force of this round of commodity price increases is more on the supply side than on the demand side. In this round of commodity cycle, the only thing that is expected to become a \"super engine\" on the global demand side may be the pull of aggregate demand driven by the transformation of China, the United States and even the global \"green economy\". However, there is still great uncertainty about whether the release rhythm of this process can be faster than the self-regulation of the supply side.</p><p><b>Second, the stabilizing effect of international trade on prices.</b>Starting from the second half of 2020, the economic recovery in Europe and the United States has boosted exports from emerging markets around the world (especially Asia). In the first quarter of 2021, the U.S. trade deficit expanded to a record, Asian exports remained strong, and European manufacturing also quietly made efforts.</p><p><b>The United States under Biden's leadership is expected to be more open to international trade, and commodity price pressures may also become a catalyst for countries to repair trade relations.</b>For example, on May 17, the metal tariff war between the EU and the United States was announced to be suspended. From this point of view, in the future, the United States is expected to continue to control its own consumption and production costs through international division of labor, and curb inflation to a certain extent.</p><p><b>The third is the sustainability of the fiscal stimulus effect in the United States.</b>On the one hand, the $1.9 trillion bailout bill introduced by Biden in January this year is \"one-time.\" With the recent unsatisfactory recovery of the job market, many states in the United States have begun to reduce or suspend the payment of unemployment assistance. On the other hand, the Republican Party's attitude towards Biden's infrastructure plan has become clearer recently. For example, the media predicts that the scale of the revised infrastructure plan to be announced by the Republican Party on May 18 is only US $568 billion, which is only a quarter of Biden's 2.3 trillion proposal.</p><p>What's more, the phenomenon of \"slow employment + fast inflation\" shown in the just-released U.S. economic data in April may further trigger public controversy about the effects and side effects of fiscal stimulus. If the scale of infrastructure plans shrinks significantly in the future, whether it is its upward effect on the U.S. inflation center or its blow to public inflation expectations, it may further curb the rise in inflation.</p><p><b>The fourth is the Fed's policy strategy.</b>Regarding the future inflation trend, except for the \"base effect\", which is an \"objective problem\" that can be solved through careful calculation, the rest are mostly \"subjective questions\". We believe that if we break down (in order of the Fed from \"calm\" to \"flustered\"), there are at least five types of situations that may cause the Fed to (at least externally) ignore inflation:</p><p><b>First, the Federal Reserve currently has a relatively clear judgment that inflationary pressure in the United States will be temporary and controllable.</b></p><p><b>Second (more likely), the Fed is not sure whether inflation is temporary, but it is difficult to conclude that inflation risks are worrying based on the higher CPI in April.</b>The most rational choice in \"uncertainty\" is to \"stand still\" for further observation and analysis.</p><p><b>Third (more likely), the Federal Reserve may have judged that the risk of inflation is high, but the foundation for employment and the recovery of the real economy is not yet solid, and believes that maintaining employment is more important than preventing inflation.</b>Therefore, I have no choice but to \"stand still\".</p><p><b>Fourth, the Federal Reserve may have judged that the risk of inflation is high, but believes that this is not caused by monetary policy, but the \"pot\" of the Biden administration's excessive fiscal stimulus.</b>Then try to maintain the rhythm of \"no sharp turns\" in order to demonstrate the rationality of monetary policy.</p><p><b>Fifth, the Federal Reserve may have judged that the risk of inflation is high, but considering that monetary policy needs to \"not make a sharp turn\" to avoid market shocks under the \"tightening panic\",</b>Therefore, we have to appease the market slightly \"against our will\", but secretly we may have (or will soon) begun to discuss reducing QE.</p><p><b>But no matter what the situation is, two things can be relatively certain: First, there is a high probability that the Fed will not make a \"sharp turn\". Second, we need to be alert to the risk of market fluctuations.</b></p><p>In the short term, if the Fed remains dovish, market risk appetite may not necessarily fall significantly, and risky assets may still perform positively, interpreting \"there is wine today and drunk today.\" But when the Fed and the market face too many \"subjective questions\", the market's suspicion is likely to heat up, which at least means that it will be very difficult for the Fed to communicate with the market in the future.</p><p>Looking further, the market may easily adjust its expectations for the rhythm of the Fed's policy to be more \"conservative\", that is, predict that the Fed's policy will shift ahead of schedule. Therefore, the risk of the market experiencing volatility and adjustment in the next 1-2 months may increase.</p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> source：<a href=\"https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s/lszLZJIUe5-eNO1cIbjGsA\">钟正生经济分析</a></p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0f9e9a265cb0e7e8cb195039b2fe24a4","relate_stocks":{".DJI":"道琼斯"},"source_url":"https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s/lszLZJIUe5-eNO1cIbjGsA","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1199499763","content_text":"摘要\n美国4月通胀指标上行趋势超过市场预期，亦超过基数效应。在近期大宗商品价格重启涨势的背景下，市场对于美国通胀的担忧进一步加剧，对于美联储“误判”通胀的担忧亦有显现。\n抛开“热通胀”的直观感受，由美国通胀指标出发，我们对未来一年CPI和PCE走势进行研判，继而进一步思考，美联储面对通胀指标的蹿升会做何选择。\n1、美国4月CPI指标缘何蹿升？从4月CPI分项数据看，美国经济重启时出现了“暂时性”的需求激增，如食品饮料和交通出行的需求更快上升。其中，二手车和卡车指数环比升10%，为指数生成以来的最大月度涨幅，这一分项对CPI总指数的拉动超过1/3。而二手车价格急涨的原因多为“暂时性”的：\n\n 1）租车公司的二手车供应不足。美国租车公司的新车一般会在一年后（或更短时间内）作为二手车被卖出，而2020年疫情迫使租车公司大幅削减了新车的购买，导致目前进入市场的二手车数量锐减。2）近期芯片短缺间接影响二手车供应。3）社交距离增加二手车需求。4）经济风险、消费降级增加二手车需求。\n\n2、美国CPI走势研判。定性判断：5月二手车价格涨幅或趋缓，能源品和服务价格有望进一步上涨，5月CPI环比可能还会为正，但增速大概率小于4月。定量测算，预计5月美国CPI同比为4.4%左右，2021全年CPI同比增速为3.2%。\n但在2022年摆脱基数效应后，美国CPI同比增速有望回归2%附近，预计2022年一季度CPI同比为2.4%。\n3、美国CPI与PCE的相关性。PCE是美联储更为关注的通胀指标。美国PCE与CPI走势有较高同步性，但PCE的波动性通常小于CPI，且通常PCE月同比增速更低。背后原因：\n\n 1）公式效应。PCE的测算方法比CPI多考虑了价格变化后商品之间的替代效应。2）权重效应。例如，住房在PCE中的权重要显著小于CPI。据2019年以来的数据，“权重效应”是PCE与CPI走势有别的主要因素，它使PCE波动小于CPI，即权重效应在CPI走高时一定程度上将抑制PCE走得过高。3）范围效应。例如，由雇主提供的保险、政府医疗保险等，仅包含在PCE中。4）其他效应。PCE和CPI的季节性调整方法有别。\n\n4、美国PCE走势研判。\n历史上当CPI冲高时，2000年以来的CPI数据对PCE有较强的预测能力。综合考虑基数效应以及CPI与PCE的相关性，我们预测，2021年4月PCE同比值在3.0-3.3%区间，5月PCE同比在3.0-3.5%区间，2021年PCE同比值为2.4-2.6%区间，2022年一季度PCE同比有望回落至2%附近或以下。\n5、对美国通胀走势与美联储政策的思考。\n有很多因素支撑美联储判断通胀只是“暂时的”，我们补充四个重要的思考维度。一是，对于本轮大宗商品周期的判断。二是，国际贸易对物价的平抑作用。三是，美国财政刺激效果的持续性。四是，美联储的施政策略。\n（按照美联储由“淡定”到“慌张”排序）至少有五类情形均可能使美联储（至少对外表现出）漠视通胀：\n\n 1）美联储明确认为通胀压力将是暂时的。2）（较大可能）美联储不确定通胀是否是暂时的，选择“按兵不动”，待作进一步观察和分析。3）（较大可能）美联储判断通胀风险较大，但认为保就业比防通胀更重要，无奈选择“按兵不动”。4）美联储判断通胀风险较大，但不想背财政刺激过度的“锅”。5）美联储判断通胀风险较大，但稍显“违心”地安抚市场，暗地里可能已经（或很快将）开始讨论缩减QE。\n\n如果美联储维持鸽派，那么短期风险资产可能仍会表现积极，演绎“今朝有酒今朝醉”。但市场的猜疑很可能升温，未来美联储与市场沟通的难度很大，市场或容易将对美联储政策预期调整得更加“保守”（即预判美联储政策转向提前）。因此，未来1-2个月市场经历波动和调整的风险可能加大。\n2021年5月12-13日，美国CPI和PPI数据相继出炉，涨势均超市场预期。5月12日CPI公布后引发市场剧烈波动，美股三大股指均跌2%以上，标普500波动率指数（VIX）创近两个月以来新高，10年美债收益率跃升5bp至1.69%。\nCPI指标公布后，美联储多位官员紧急发言稳定市场情绪，继续看淡通胀风险。5月13-14日市场恐慌情绪似乎很快消退，股市反弹，10年美债收益率回落至1.63%。\n诚然，当前美国通胀指标上行超过市场预期、亦超过基数效应。而且，在近期大宗商品重启涨势的背景下，市场对于美国通胀的担忧进一步加剧，对于美联储“误判”通胀的担忧亦有显现。但这是否意味着，美国通胀水平将持续走高、美联储是否会迫于无奈而“出手”？\n我们尝试尽量抛开“热通胀”的直观感受，进行一系列“冷思考”：由美国通胀指标出发（因PPI的关注度与信息量有限，我们主要对CPI和PCE进行讨论），美国4月CPI具体缘何升高、能否持续？美国CPI与美联储更为关注的通胀指标PCE（个人消费支出指数）的相关性如何？美联储将如何应对通胀指标的升高？\n\n一、美国4月CPI解读及CPI走势研判\n1、美国4月CPI指标缘何蹿升：二手车涨价背后的故事\n美国4月CPI 同比4.2%，为2008年9月以来最高增速；环比0.8%，市场预期为0.2%。4月核心CPI同比3.0%；环比0.9%，市场预期为0.3%。整体看，4月美国CPI以及核心CPI增速都大幅超过市场预期。\n2021年1-4月，美国CPI环比增速分别为0.3%、0.4%、0.6%和0.8%，平均为0.5%，而2015-2019年、2016-2019年CPI月均环比分别仅为0.15%、0.18%。可见，2021年美国CPI蹿升的原因不只基数效应那么简单。\n4月美国CPI分项表现呈现三大特点：\n一是，二手车涨价为主要拉动。二手车和卡车指数环比升10%，这是1953年CPI指数生成以来的最大月度涨幅，前值仅0.5%，这一分项对4月CPI总指数的拉动超过1/3。二手车价格对商品分项乃至核心CPI形成显著拉动。\n美国二手车价格为何急涨？多为疫情后“暂时性”的供需矛盾：\n1）租车公司的二手车供应不足。美国租车公司的新车一般会在一年后（或更短时间内）作为二手车被卖出。而2020年新冠疫情迫使租车公司大幅削减新车购买，导致目前进入市场的二手车数量锐减。\n2）近期芯片短缺间接影响二手车供应。芯片短缺使新车制造速度放缓，继而二手车更迭速度也放缓，投放到市场的二手车更加有限。\n3）社交距离增加二手车需求。疫情后大量居民减少公共交通出行、远程办工、迁居郊区等，对二手车的需求上升。\n4）经济风险、消费降级增加二手车需求。为了在经济形势不稳定的时期省钱，尤其是在新车和卡车价格处于历史高位的情况下，美国居民倾向于选择二手车。\n\n二是，能源价格环比不升反降。4月能源分项反而环比小幅下降0.1%，能源品（-1.4%）、汽油（-1.4%）和原油（-3.2%）均环比下降，这与我们近期直观上感受到的大宗商品价格上涨现象背离。不过，所有能源品分项同比仍然大幅上涨25.1%，该分项在CPI中的权重为6.9%，对4月CPI同比增速的贡献是1.73个百分点。\n三是，交通服务领涨服务分项。4月交通服务分项环比升2.9%，显著超前值的1.8%；同比升5.6%，显著超过全部服务分项同比的2.5%。其中，航空费用和机动车保险两分项环比分别涨10.2%和2.5%。交通服务分项对全部服务分项、乃至核心CPI有重要拉动。\n综合来看，4月CPI数据体现的是，美国经济重启时出现了“暂时性”的需求激增，体现为食品饮料和交通出行的需求更快上升。随着美国疫情控制、线下消费与出行场景恢复，与之相关的需求增长带动物价短线上升是可以理解的。\n2、美国CPI走势研判：基数效应与“暂时性”因素\n我们预计，2021年5月美国CPI环比增速有望放缓，下半年CPI同比可能明显下降，2022年CPI有望回归“正常”。\n第一，二手车和卡车方面，上述供需矛盾可能导致2021年价格维持高位，但5月环比很难再次快速上升。且供需矛盾多为“暂时性”的，有望在2022年基本消除，帮助美国CPI以及核心CPI增速在2022年回落。\n第二，虽然4月能源分项环比下滑，但结合4月中旬以后的大宗涨势，5月能源分项可能环比回升。但我们对能源价格（尤其原油）的中长期走势偏于谨慎，主因是现阶段国际原油供给弹性仍然较强，能源分项在2022年的增速大概率至少回归历史平均水平。\n第三，服务分项价格可能会进一步抬头，原因是美国疫情持续改善和消费场景恢复。但目前需要思考的问题是，美国服务消费的恢复与商品消费的关系是怎样的、二者更多是“互补品”还是“替代品”？\n我们认为，随着服务消费的恢复，美国强劲的耐用品消费有可能环比回落，非耐用品消费在互补与替代的对冲作用下可能走平。\n综合来看，5月美国CPI环比可能还会为正，但大概率小于4月增速。这意味着，由于基数原因，5月CPI同比读数可能会比4月再高一些。但在2022年摆脱基数效应后，美国CPI同比增速有望回归2%附近。\n\n二、美国CPI与PCE相关性及PCE走势研判\n1、美国CPI与PCE的相关性：系统性的差异\n美国个人消费支出指数（PCE）是美联储更为关注的通胀指标。其与CPI的关系是：\n1）统计来源看，美国劳工统计局（BLS）负责统计CPI，依据对消费者的调查问卷；美国经济分析局（BEA）负责统计和测算PCE，依据的是BLS统计的CPI数值以及其收集的其他信息。\n2）功能上看，二者都是衡量物价的指标。CPI可能受到更多关注，其统计历史更长久，在美国CPI的用途更广泛，如用于社保支出调整、用于很多金融产品利率的调整（如TIPS通胀保值国债）等。而PCE是美联储通胀目标的参考依据。\n3）指标走势上看，历史上PCE与CPI走势有较高同步性，但PCE的波动性通常小于CPI，且PCE月同比增速系统性低于CPI。我们测算，2000年1月至2021年3月期间，美国PCE与CPI（月同比增速,下同）相关系数为0.983，核心PCE与核心CPI的相关系数为0.966；PCE月同比波动率为0.93%，CPI波动率为1.23%；PCE月同比平均值为1.81%，CPI平均值为2.12%。\n\n据美联储官方资料，PCE与CPI数值产生差异有四个原因：\n1）公式效应，PCE的测算是基于链式Fisher公式，而CPI是基于修正的Laspeyres公式。其关键区别在于，PCE比CPI多考虑了价格变化后商品之间的替代效应。例如，一项商品价格上涨，居民购买量减少，PCE的测算便会用新的“篮子”，以反映人们消费行为的变化。\n2）权重效应，即两个“篮子”中相同商品被赋予不同权重。CPI的权重使用的是居民购买情况调查里的权重，而PCE用的是企业销售产品情况调查的权重。例如，住房在美国PCE中的权重要显著小于CPI，2021Q1因住房权重不同PCE季调环比折年率比CPI低0.31个百分点。\n据2019年以来的数据，“权重效应”是PCE与CPI走势有别的主要因素，它使PCE波动小于CPI，即权重效应在CPI走高时一定程度上将抑制PCE走得过高。\n3）范围效应，即两个“篮子”涵盖不同的商品。CPI仅涵盖居民购买商品和服务的自付支出，而PCE还涵盖了为家庭服务的非营利机构的支出。例如，由雇主提供的保险、政府医疗保险等，仅包含在PCE中。\n4）其他效应，包括季节调整差异、价格差异和剩余差异等。PCE和CPI的季节性调整方法有别。\n2、美国PCE走势研判：基于CPI数据的预测\n2000年以来的美国CPI数据对PCE有较强的预测能力。我们尝试用两组美国CPI月同比数据，对美国PCE月同比进行OLS模型拟合（拟合1使用1960年1月至2021年3月数据、拟合2使用2000年1月至2021年3月），并重点观察1990年以来CPI走高时期（月同比2%以上）的拟合情况。\n我们发现，以2000年以来CPI数据进行的PCE拟合值与实际值更为贴合。尤其在CPI同比增速冲高的时期，通常可以观察到，CPI实际增速>PCE拟合1>PCE拟合2>=PCE实际增速（图表7）。根据4月美国CPI月同比（4.2%），两个模型的4月PCE拟合值分别为3.7%和3.3%。\n综合考虑基数效应以及CPI与PCE的相关性，我们预测，2021年4月PCE同比值在3.0-3.3%区间，5月PCE同比在3.0-3.5%区间（或为全年高点），2021年PCE同比值为2.4-2.6%区间（略高于3月美联储预测中值的2.4%），2022年一季度PCE同比增速有望回落至2%附近或以下。\n\n\n三、对美国通胀走势与美联储政策的思考\n4月美国CPI公布后，美联储官员“毫不犹豫”地看淡通胀风险。彭博发文指出或有六大因素支撑美联储的判断：通胀预期、就业不振、价格粘性、颠覆性技术、定价能力以及基数效应。在此基础上，我们补充另外四个重要的思考维度：\n一是，对于本轮大宗商品周期的判断。我们对本轮大宗商品周期持较为谨慎的态度（参考报告《大宗商品的“超级周期”来了吗？》）。\n关键原因是，本轮商品价格上涨的驱动力更多在供给侧而非需求端。本轮商品周期中，唯一有望成为全球需求端“超级发动机”的，可能是中国、美国乃至全球“绿色经济”转型对总需求的拉动。但这一过程释放的节奏能否快过供给端的自我调节，还有很大不确定性。\n二是，国际贸易对物价的平抑作用。2020年下半年开始，欧美经济复苏拉动了全球新兴市场（尤其亚洲）的出口。2021年一季度美国贸易逆差扩大创历史记录，亚洲出口维持强劲，欧洲制造业亦悄然发力。\n拜登领导下的美国对国际贸易的态度料将更加开放，大宗商品价格压力亦可能成为各国修复贸易关系的催化剂，如5月17日欧盟与美国的金属关税战宣布暂缓。如此看，未来美国有望通过国际分工继续控制本国消费与生产成本，一定程度上抑制通胀水平。\n三是，美国财政刺激效果的持续性。一方面，拜登今年1月推出的1.9万亿美元救助法案是“一次性”的。近期随着就业市场恢复不尽人意，美国多个州已经开始减少或暂停失业救助的发放。另一方面，近期共和党对拜登基建计划的态度进一步清晰，如媒体预计5月18日共和党将公布的基建计划修订方案的规模仅为5680亿美元，仅为拜登2.3万亿提案的四分之一。\n更何况，刚出炉的4月美国经济数据所展现的“慢就业+快通胀”现象，有可能进一步引发公众对财政刺激效果与副作用的争议。如果未来基建计划的规模大幅缩水，无论是其对美国通胀中枢的抬升作用，还是对公众通胀预期的打击，都可能进一步抑制通胀升高。\n四是，美联储的施政策略。对于未来通胀走势，除了“基数效应”是一个可以通过仔细测算而解决的“客观题”，其余大多是“主观题”。我们认为，如果进行细分（按照美联储由“淡定”到“慌张”排序），那么至少有五类情形均可能使美联储（至少对外表现出）漠视通胀：\n第一，美联储目前有较为明确的判断，认为美国通胀压力将是暂时的、可控的。\n第二（较大可能），美联储不确定通胀是否是暂时的，但难以根据4月CPI走高就认定通胀风险是令人担忧的。在“不确定”中最为理智的选择是“按兵不动”，作进一步观察和分析。\n第三（较大可能），美联储可能已经判断通胀风险较大，但就业与实体经济恢复基础尚不牢固，并认为保就业比防通胀更重要，因此无奈选择“按兵不动”。\n第四，美联储可能已经判断通胀风险较大，但认为这并非是货币政策造成的，而是拜登政府财政刺激过度的“锅”，继而尽量维持“不急转弯”的节奏，以期彰显货币政策的合理性。\n第五，美联储可能已经判断通胀风险较大，但考虑到货币政策需要“不急转弯”，以避免造成“紧缩恐慌”下的市场震荡，所以不得不稍显“违心”地安抚市场，但暗地里可能已经（或很快将）开始讨论缩减QE。\n但无论何种情况，可以较为确定的是两件事：第一，美联储大概率不会“急转弯”。第二，需警惕市场波动风险。\n短期看，如果美联储维持鸽派，市场风险偏好不一定会显著回落，风险资产可能仍会表现积极，演绎“今朝有酒今朝醉”。但当美联储和市场面对太多的“主观题”时，市场的猜疑亦很可能升温，这至少意味着未来美联储与市场沟通的难度很大。\n进一步看，市场或容易将对美联储政策节奏的预期调整得更加“保守”，即预判美联储政策转向提前。因此，未来1-2个月市场经历波动和调整的风险可能加大。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{".DJI":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1716,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0}],"hots":[{"id":147750922,"gmtCreate":1626392643166,"gmtModify":1703759137638,"author":{"id":"3581890431374693","authorId":"3581890431374693","name":"王华77","avatar":"https://st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06:51","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"Intel in talks to acquire GlobalFoundries for roughly $30 billion","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1191369396","media":"老虎资讯综合","summary":"7月16日讯，据知情人士透露，英特尔公司正在研究收购格芯（GlobalFoundries）的交易，此举将推动这家半导体巨头为其他科技公司生产更多芯片的计划，并被视为该公司有史以来最大的一笔收购。\n知情","content":"<p>July 16, according to people familiar with the matter,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/INTC\">Intel</a>The company is studying a deal to acquire GlobalFoundries, a move that would boost the semiconductor giant's plans to produce more chips for other technology companies and is seen as the company's largest acquisition ever.</p><p>The deal could value GlobalFoundries at around $30 billion, people familiar with the matter said. But there is no guarantee that it will succeed, and GlobalFoundries may go ahead with an initial public offering (IPO) as planned. GlobalFoundries is owned by Mubadala Investment Co., a government investment arm in Abu Dhabi, but is based in the United States. The company is not in talks with Intel, a spokesman for the company said.</p><p>GlobalFoundries is owned by Mubadala Investment Company, an Abu Dhabi sovereign wealth fund, but is headquartered in the United States. According to data from research firm Trendforce, GlobalFoundries occupies about 7% of the global wafer foundry market in terms of revenue, behind TSMC, Samsung and UMC.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/875739a63d7486f99ea8e73c95c0ec18\" tg-width=\"552\" tg-height=\"279\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>It is worth noting that GlobalFoundries' major customers include Intel's competitor AMD. This year, the two parties reached a long-term chip component supply agreement worth $1.6 billion. This will greatly increase the difficulty of Intel's mergers and acquisitions.</p><p>Intel CEO Pat Gelsinger (Pat Gelsinger) said in March that Intel would return to fabs and announced that it would invest more than US $20 billion to expand wafer production equipment in the United States, as well as at home and abroad. Promote more investment.</p><p>Previously, a number of semiconductor companies announced plans to expand production. For example, TSMC invested US $100 billion in three years to expand production capacity; South Korea's second largest chip factory SK Hynix's $100 billion production expansion plan was approved.</p><p>Qiao An, an analyst at TrendForce, once said that the global demand for semiconductors is still strong, coupled with the tight demand for automotive semiconductors, the delivery cycle has been extended in a market where the production capacity of various processes of wafer foundries is mostly hard to find. Production expansion has become the most direct way to solve the production capacity problem.</p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Intel in talks to acquire GlobalFoundries for roughly $30 billion</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nIntel in talks to acquire GlobalFoundries for roughly $30 billion\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/102\">\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">老虎资讯综合 </p>\n<p class=\"h-time smaller\">2021-07-16 06:51</p>\n</div>\n</a>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>July 16, according to people familiar with the matter,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/INTC\">Intel</a>The company is studying a deal to acquire GlobalFoundries, a move that would boost the semiconductor giant's plans to produce more chips for other technology companies and is seen as the company's largest acquisition ever.</p><p>The deal could value GlobalFoundries at around $30 billion, people familiar with the matter said. But there is no guarantee that it will succeed, and GlobalFoundries may go ahead with an initial public offering (IPO) as planned. GlobalFoundries is owned by Mubadala Investment Co., a government investment arm in Abu Dhabi, but is based in the United States. The company is not in talks with Intel, a spokesman for the company said.</p><p>GlobalFoundries is owned by Mubadala Investment Company, an Abu Dhabi sovereign wealth fund, but is headquartered in the United States. According to data from research firm Trendforce, GlobalFoundries occupies about 7% of the global wafer foundry market in terms of revenue, behind TSMC, Samsung and UMC.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/875739a63d7486f99ea8e73c95c0ec18\" tg-width=\"552\" tg-height=\"279\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>It is worth noting that GlobalFoundries' major customers include Intel's competitor AMD. This year, the two parties reached a long-term chip component supply agreement worth $1.6 billion. This will greatly increase the difficulty of Intel's mergers and acquisitions.</p><p>Intel CEO Pat Gelsinger (Pat Gelsinger) said in March that Intel would return to fabs and announced that it would invest more than US $20 billion to expand wafer production equipment in the United States, as well as at home and abroad. Promote more investment.</p><p>Previously, a number of semiconductor companies announced plans to expand production. For example, TSMC invested US $100 billion in three years to expand production capacity; South Korea's second largest chip factory SK Hynix's $100 billion production expansion plan was approved.</p><p>Qiao An, an analyst at TrendForce, once said that the global demand for semiconductors is still strong, coupled with the tight demand for automotive semiconductors, the delivery cycle has been extended in a market where the production capacity of various processes of wafer foundries is mostly hard to find. Production expansion has become the most direct way to solve the production capacity problem.</p>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c74be4c2a08964ef2daf32217f693b44","relate_stocks":{"INTC":"英特尔","03086":"华夏纳指","09086":"华夏纳指-U"},"is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1191369396","content_text":"7月16日讯，据知情人士透露，英特尔公司正在研究收购格芯（GlobalFoundries）的交易，此举将推动这家半导体巨头为其他科技公司生产更多芯片的计划，并被视为该公司有史以来最大的一笔收购。\n知情人士说，这笔交易对GlobalFoundries的估值可能在300亿美元左右。但并不能保证一定会成功，GlobalFoundries可能会按计划进行首次公开募股(IPO)。GlobalFoundries为阿布扎比政府投资机构穆巴达拉投资公司(Mubadala Investment Co.)所有，但总部设在美国。该公司发言人说，该公司没有与英特尔进行谈判。\n格芯为阿布扎比主权财富基金 Mubadala 投资公司所有，但总部设在美国。据研究机构集邦咨询（Trendforce）数据，按照营收计算，格芯在全球晶圆代工市场占据了约7%的市场份额，位于台积电、三星和联电之后。\n\n值得关注的是，格芯大客户中包括了英特尔的竞争对手AMD。在今年，双方达成了一项长期的芯片组件供应协议，其价值为16亿美元。这将大大加大英特尔的并购难度。\n英特尔首席执行官帕特·基辛格(Pat Gelsinger)在三月份表示，英特尔将重返晶圆厂代工，并宣布将投入超 200亿美元，扩大美国的晶圆生产设备，也会在海內外推动更多投资。\n此前有多家半导体企业宣布了扩产计划，例如台积电三年内投资1000亿美元用于扩大产能；韩国第二大芯片厂SK海力士千亿美元扩产计划获批。\n集邦咨询分析师乔安曾表示，全球半导体需求仍然强劲，加上车用半导体需求吃紧，导致晶圆代工各制程产能多半难求的市况下，交付周期延长。扩产成为解决产能问题的最直接方法。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"INTC":0.9,"03086":0.9,"09086":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1796,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":123040614,"gmtCreate":1624404766938,"gmtModify":1703835487804,"author":{"id":"3581890431374693","authorId":"3581890431374693","name":"王华77","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/bdfbe111612069ded1cd8fb78257fbe7","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3581890431374693","authorIdStr":"3581890431374693"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"?","listText":"?","text":"?","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/123040614","repostId":"2145494066","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1978,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":150370956,"gmtCreate":1624888537575,"gmtModify":1703847122202,"author":{"id":"3581890431374693","authorId":"3581890431374693","name":"王华77","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/bdfbe111612069ded1cd8fb78257fbe7","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3581890431374693","authorIdStr":"3581890431374693"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"?&nbsp;","listText":"?&nbsp;","text":"?","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/150370956","repostId":"1198246953","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"1198246953","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1624873680,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1198246953?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2021-06-28 17:48","market":"hk","language":"zh","title":"The battle for ammunition, this game returns to Hong Kong, and XPeng wins!","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1198246953","media":"华尔街见闻  ","summary":"近几年来，智能电动车行业景象一片繁荣、征伐激烈，俨然成为了春秋战国的缩影。\n激烈的竞争格局自然意味着雄厚资本储备的重要性，蔚来、小鹏和理想纷纷开启了从美股到港股的资本争夺之路。\n据悉，蔚来和理想汽车已","content":"<p>In recent years, the smart electric vehicle industry has been prosperous and fierce, and it has become the epitome of the Spring and Autumn Period and the Warring States Period.</p><p>The fierce competition landscape naturally means the importance of strong capital reserves. Nio, XPeng and Ideal have started the road of capital competition from US stocks to Hong Kong stocks.</p><p>It is reported that Nio and Li Auto have secretly handed in documents related to Hong Kong listing.</p><p><b>However, in this round of battle for \"the first smart electric vehicle stock in Hong Kong stocks\", XPeng Motors took the lead and took the lead in obtaining ammunition.</b></p><p>On June 23, XPeng Automobile passed the hearing of the Hong Kong Stock Exchange.</p><p>On June 24, the latest prospectus documents showed that the company has officially launched the Hong Kong stock listing plan, and will sell 4.25 million shares in Hong Kong public offering and 80.75 million new Class A ordinary shares in international offering, with a maximum price of HK $180 per share. At the same time, 12.75 million over-allotment options were granted to international underwriters.</p><p><b>According to the issue price of HK $180, XPeng Automobile's fundraising amount is expected to be HK $15.3-17.595 billion.</b></p><p>At present, Ali firmly occupies the position of the second largest shareholder.</p><p>According to the prospectus, He XPeng, chairman of XPeng Motors, holds 21.75% of the shares as the largest shareholder, Taobao china holds 11.9%, IDG Capital holds 4.8%, XPeng Motors co-founder and president Xia Heng holds 3.8%, Wuyuan Capital holds 3.2% of the shares, and GGV Capital holds 2.8% of the shares.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2f9e962775d657ebd2a3f75285b59138\" tg-width=\"554\" tg-height=\"485\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><i>Source: Prospectus</i></p><p><b>01</b></p><p><b>Double primary listing first share in three years, significant</b></p><p>The listing of XPeng Automobile in Hong Kong is less than a year after the US stock market rang the bell on August 27 last year.</p><p>Generally speaking, there are three ways for Chinese concept stocks to return to A-shares or Hong Kong stocks: one is to delist from the US stock market and re-list on A-shares or Hong Kong stocks; the other is to retain the US stock market and list it on the Hong Kong stock market for the second time; and the third is to retain the US stock market. The listing status is listed on the US stock market and the Hong Kong stock market respectively, that is, dual primary listing.</p><p><b>Among them, dual primary listings face stricter supervision and need to be jointly supervised by the US Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) and the Hong Kong Securities and Futures Commission (SFC).</b></p><p><b>XPeng Automobile's return to Hong Kong for listing is the third way, which means that the company is listed on two stock exchanges at the same time, and at the same time meets the regulatory requirements of the two places for listed companies.</b></p><p>At present, many companies listed in the United States have chosen the secondary listing of Hong Kong stocks. On March 23, Baidu was listed on the Hong Kong stock market; On March 29, Bilibili (i.e. Station B) was officially listed on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange; Previously, Autohome also announced the start of trading on the main board of the Hong Kong Stock Exchange.</p><p><b>However, XPeng is the first dual primary listing company in Hong Kong and the United States since BeiGene's dual primary listing on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange three years ago.</b></p><p>The Hong Kong Stock Exchange attaches great importance to XPeng's return to Hong Kong for listing. It is said that the Hong Kong Stock Exchange, which has been ringing the bell online for more than a year due to the epidemic, also hopes to make an exception for XPeng Automobile and resume the offline bell ringing ceremony.</p><p>According to the regulations of Hong Kong Stock Connect, after XPeng Automobile is listed on the main board of Hong Kong, it can meet the access conditions of Shanghai-Hong Kong Stock Connect and Shenzhen-Hong Kong Stock Connect, and will directly open up channels for A-share investors. In addition, XPeng Automobile shares can still be freely transferred and traded between Hong Kong and new york exchanges.</p><p>For XPeng, after raising funds in Hong Kong stocks, it can directly open up the RMB market and further extend the capital tentacles; For A-share investors, smart electric vehicles are no longer out of reach.</p><p><b>02</b></p><p><b>Why is the \"first share\" XPeng?</b></p><p>XPeng He, the founder of XPeng Motor, once said after the successful bell of the US stock market: \"It is very important to get more ammunition in order to win the long-distance race.\"</p><p>Behind the rapid acquisition of ammunition is the intelligent technology that XPeng Motors has always been proud of and focused on.</p><p><b>And this is what the Hong Kong Stock Exchange is scarce and desires.</b></p><p>It can be seen from Baidu, which was listed in Hong Kong for the second time before, that what capital respects is its \"first AI stock\" aura.</p><p>Since its establishment in 2015, XPeng Automobile has focused on intelligent technology, and began to build a full-stack self-research system in 2017. According to HIS Markit, XPeng is the only Chinese automotive company to develop its own full-stack autonomous driving software.</p><p><b>Therefore, XPeng vehicles are exactly the smart electric vehicle logo that the Hong Kong Stock Exchange needs to be able to stand up to the title of \"AI\" in the automotive field.</b></p><p>From the price comparison, we can also see the strength of XPeng's return to Hong Kong.</p><p>The IPO price of Hong Kong stocks has reached HK $180. When it was listed on the US stock market last year, XPeng's IPO price was only US $15. Until the US stock market closed on June 25, the price was US $42.16.</p><p><b>03 Full-stack autonomous driving, substantial growth in revenue, accelerated hematopoiesis</b></p><p>As one of the leading smart electric vehicle manufacturers in China, XPeng is the only automotive company in China that develops its own full-stack autonomous driving software, focusing on software, data and hardware technologies as the core to provide autonomous driving, intelligent interconnection and core automotive systems. bring innovation.</p><p>Compared with traditional cars, XPeng cars integrate software and hardware and have become the top five best-selling brands in the Chinese mid-to-high-end electric vehicle market.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1f94ea92d2e1ee5ac28ad4c5112990c5\" tg-width=\"554\" tg-height=\"238\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><i>Source: Prospectus</i></p><p><b>From the perspective of vehicle delivery,</b>XPeng vehicles delivered 29 vehicles, 12,728 vehicles and 27,041 vehicles in 2018, 2019, and 2020 respectively. In the first quarter of 2021, 13,340 vehicles have been delivered, nearly half of the number delivered last year.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/84fbe34a2ccca4e21e9d00dbc0924313\" tg-width=\"483\" tg-height=\"290\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><i>Source: Prospectus</i></p><p>As of March 31, 2021, XPeng has delivered 30,102 G3 models and 23,036 P7 vehicles to customers, and has launched the third smart electric vehicle network P5 in May 2021. According to IHS Markit data, this model is expected to be the first mass-produced smart electric vehicle equipped with lidar after delivery.</p><p><b>From the income level,</b>The total revenue of XPeng Automobile in 2018, 2019 and 2020 was RMB 9.7 million, RMB 2.312 billion and RMB 5.744 billion respectively; In the first quarter of 2021, revenue was 2.951 billion yuan, more than half of last year's total revenue.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1997d350c6943f37311165c86abe7cf0\" tg-width=\"482\" tg-height=\"292\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><i>Source: Prospectus</i></p><p>At the same time, the gross profit margin of XPeng Automobile has been rising all the way, and has increased to 11.2% in the first quarter of 2021, which is expected to catch up with Ideal and even Nio.</p><p>In addition, XPeng disclosed in the prospectus that its automatic assisted driving service XPILOT software revenue accounted for 2.5% of its revenue in the first quarter.</p><p><b>If we can continue to increase the proportion of software services, XPeng will be expected to embark on a development direction different from other companies and realize hematopoietic function as soon as possible.</b></p><p><b>Epilogue</b></p><p>At present, in addition to the three outstanding car manufacturers and traditional car companies, the trend of Internet car manufacturing is also growing.</p><p>Among them, Huawei and 360 specialize in intelligent network services; Baidu, Didi, and Byte have cut into the field of subdivided autonomous driving, while Xiaomi wants to be a complete vehicle owner.</p><p>However, with the advancement of the intelligent trend of new energy vehicles, as an Internet car company with independent research and development software and hardware integration, XPeng still has imaginable space on this broad track in the future.</p><p><b>However, in the face of the situation that there is a wolf in front and a tiger in the back, it is self-evident that the ability to win the \"first stock of smart electric vehicles\" in Hong Kong stocks will support XPeng vehicles.</b></p><p>XPeng has promised to break even by the end of 2023 or 2024, but achieving this goal will undoubtedly require more deliveries, higher R&D investment, and extensive product layout, all of which require more funding.</p><p>The troops and horses didn't move, but food and grass went first.</p><p>Facing the tough battle that may continue in the future, XPeng is ready.</p>","source":"highlight_wallstreetcn","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>The battle for ammunition, this game returns to Hong Kong, and XPeng wins!</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; 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overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nThe battle for ammunition, this game returns to Hong Kong, and XPeng wins!\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">华尔街见闻  </strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-06-28 17:48</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>In recent years, the smart electric vehicle industry has been prosperous and fierce, and it has become the epitome of the Spring and Autumn Period and the Warring States Period.</p><p>The fierce competition landscape naturally means the importance of strong capital reserves. Nio, XPeng and Ideal have started the road of capital competition from US stocks to Hong Kong stocks.</p><p>It is reported that Nio and Li Auto have secretly handed in documents related to Hong Kong listing.</p><p><b>However, in this round of battle for \"the first smart electric vehicle stock in Hong Kong stocks\", XPeng Motors took the lead and took the lead in obtaining ammunition.</b></p><p>On June 23, XPeng Automobile passed the hearing of the Hong Kong Stock Exchange.</p><p>On June 24, the latest prospectus documents showed that the company has officially launched the Hong Kong stock listing plan, and will sell 4.25 million shares in Hong Kong public offering and 80.75 million new Class A ordinary shares in international offering, with a maximum price of HK $180 per share. At the same time, 12.75 million over-allotment options were granted to international underwriters.</p><p><b>According to the issue price of HK $180, XPeng Automobile's fundraising amount is expected to be HK $15.3-17.595 billion.</b></p><p>At present, Ali firmly occupies the position of the second largest shareholder.</p><p>According to the prospectus, He XPeng, chairman of XPeng Motors, holds 21.75% of the shares as the largest shareholder, Taobao china holds 11.9%, IDG Capital holds 4.8%, XPeng Motors co-founder and president Xia Heng holds 3.8%, Wuyuan Capital holds 3.2% of the shares, and GGV Capital holds 2.8% of the shares.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2f9e962775d657ebd2a3f75285b59138\" tg-width=\"554\" tg-height=\"485\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><i>Source: Prospectus</i></p><p><b>01</b></p><p><b>Double primary listing first share in three years, significant</b></p><p>The listing of XPeng Automobile in Hong Kong is less than a year after the US stock market rang the bell on August 27 last year.</p><p>Generally speaking, there are three ways for Chinese concept stocks to return to A-shares or Hong Kong stocks: one is to delist from the US stock market and re-list on A-shares or Hong Kong stocks; the other is to retain the US stock market and list it on the Hong Kong stock market for the second time; and the third is to retain the US stock market. The listing status is listed on the US stock market and the Hong Kong stock market respectively, that is, dual primary listing.</p><p><b>Among them, dual primary listings face stricter supervision and need to be jointly supervised by the US Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) and the Hong Kong Securities and Futures Commission (SFC).</b></p><p><b>XPeng Automobile's return to Hong Kong for listing is the third way, which means that the company is listed on two stock exchanges at the same time, and at the same time meets the regulatory requirements of the two places for listed companies.</b></p><p>At present, many companies listed in the United States have chosen the secondary listing of Hong Kong stocks. On March 23, Baidu was listed on the Hong Kong stock market; On March 29, Bilibili (i.e. Station B) was officially listed on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange; Previously, Autohome also announced the start of trading on the main board of the Hong Kong Stock Exchange.</p><p><b>However, XPeng is the first dual primary listing company in Hong Kong and the United States since BeiGene's dual primary listing on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange three years ago.</b></p><p>The Hong Kong Stock Exchange attaches great importance to XPeng's return to Hong Kong for listing. It is said that the Hong Kong Stock Exchange, which has been ringing the bell online for more than a year due to the epidemic, also hopes to make an exception for XPeng Automobile and resume the offline bell ringing ceremony.</p><p>According to the regulations of Hong Kong Stock Connect, after XPeng Automobile is listed on the main board of Hong Kong, it can meet the access conditions of Shanghai-Hong Kong Stock Connect and Shenzhen-Hong Kong Stock Connect, and will directly open up channels for A-share investors. In addition, XPeng Automobile shares can still be freely transferred and traded between Hong Kong and new york exchanges.</p><p>For XPeng, after raising funds in Hong Kong stocks, it can directly open up the RMB market and further extend the capital tentacles; For A-share investors, smart electric vehicles are no longer out of reach.</p><p><b>02</b></p><p><b>Why is the \"first share\" XPeng?</b></p><p>XPeng He, the founder of XPeng Motor, once said after the successful bell of the US stock market: \"It is very important to get more ammunition in order to win the long-distance race.\"</p><p>Behind the rapid acquisition of ammunition is the intelligent technology that XPeng Motors has always been proud of and focused on.</p><p><b>And this is what the Hong Kong Stock Exchange is scarce and desires.</b></p><p>It can be seen from Baidu, which was listed in Hong Kong for the second time before, that what capital respects is its \"first AI stock\" aura.</p><p>Since its establishment in 2015, XPeng Automobile has focused on intelligent technology, and began to build a full-stack self-research system in 2017. According to HIS Markit, XPeng is the only Chinese automotive company to develop its own full-stack autonomous driving software.</p><p><b>Therefore, XPeng vehicles are exactly the smart electric vehicle logo that the Hong Kong Stock Exchange needs to be able to stand up to the title of \"AI\" in the automotive field.</b></p><p>From the price comparison, we can also see the strength of XPeng's return to Hong Kong.</p><p>The IPO price of Hong Kong stocks has reached HK $180. When it was listed on the US stock market last year, XPeng's IPO price was only US $15. Until the US stock market closed on June 25, the price was US $42.16.</p><p><b>03 Full-stack autonomous driving, substantial growth in revenue, accelerated hematopoiesis</b></p><p>As one of the leading smart electric vehicle manufacturers in China, XPeng is the only automotive company in China that develops its own full-stack autonomous driving software, focusing on software, data and hardware technologies as the core to provide autonomous driving, intelligent interconnection and core automotive systems. bring innovation.</p><p>Compared with traditional cars, XPeng cars integrate software and hardware and have become the top five best-selling brands in the Chinese mid-to-high-end electric vehicle market.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1f94ea92d2e1ee5ac28ad4c5112990c5\" tg-width=\"554\" tg-height=\"238\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><i>Source: Prospectus</i></p><p><b>From the perspective of vehicle delivery,</b>XPeng vehicles delivered 29 vehicles, 12,728 vehicles and 27,041 vehicles in 2018, 2019, and 2020 respectively. In the first quarter of 2021, 13,340 vehicles have been delivered, nearly half of the number delivered last year.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/84fbe34a2ccca4e21e9d00dbc0924313\" tg-width=\"483\" tg-height=\"290\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><i>Source: Prospectus</i></p><p>As of March 31, 2021, XPeng has delivered 30,102 G3 models and 23,036 P7 vehicles to customers, and has launched the third smart electric vehicle network P5 in May 2021. According to IHS Markit data, this model is expected to be the first mass-produced smart electric vehicle equipped with lidar after delivery.</p><p><b>From the income level,</b>The total revenue of XPeng Automobile in 2018, 2019 and 2020 was RMB 9.7 million, RMB 2.312 billion and RMB 5.744 billion respectively; In the first quarter of 2021, revenue was 2.951 billion yuan, more than half of last year's total revenue.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1997d350c6943f37311165c86abe7cf0\" tg-width=\"482\" tg-height=\"292\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><i>Source: Prospectus</i></p><p>At the same time, the gross profit margin of XPeng Automobile has been rising all the way, and has increased to 11.2% in the first quarter of 2021, which is expected to catch up with Ideal and even Nio.</p><p>In addition, XPeng disclosed in the prospectus that its automatic assisted driving service XPILOT software revenue accounted for 2.5% of its revenue in the first quarter.</p><p><b>If we can continue to increase the proportion of software services, XPeng will be expected to embark on a development direction different from other companies and realize hematopoietic function as soon as possible.</b></p><p><b>Epilogue</b></p><p>At present, in addition to the three outstanding car manufacturers and traditional car companies, the trend of Internet car manufacturing is also growing.</p><p>Among them, Huawei and 360 specialize in intelligent network services; Baidu, Didi, and Byte have cut into the field of subdivided autonomous driving, while Xiaomi wants to be a complete vehicle owner.</p><p>However, with the advancement of the intelligent trend of new energy vehicles, as an Internet car company with independent research and development software and hardware integration, XPeng still has imaginable space on this broad track in the future.</p><p><b>However, in the face of the situation that there is a wolf in front and a tiger in the back, it is self-evident that the ability to win the \"first stock of smart electric vehicles\" in Hong Kong stocks will support XPeng vehicles.</b></p><p>XPeng has promised to break even by the end of 2023 or 2024, but achieving this goal will undoubtedly require more deliveries, higher R&D investment, and extensive product layout, all of which require more funding.</p><p>The troops and horses didn't move, but food and grass went first.</p><p>Facing the tough battle that may continue in the future, XPeng is ready.</p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> source：<a href=\"https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s/AcBEeM2yeqBpOLRWdPvThA\">华尔街见闻  </a></p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4aa4c2246df411f68e16a21f6d365311","relate_stocks":{"XPEV":"小鹏汽车","09868":"小鹏汽车-W"},"source_url":"https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s/AcBEeM2yeqBpOLRWdPvThA","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/cc96873d3d23ee6ac10685520df9c100","article_id":"1198246953","content_text":"近几年来，智能电动车行业景象一片繁荣、征伐激烈，俨然成为了春秋战国的缩影。\n激烈的竞争格局自然意味着雄厚资本储备的重要性，蔚来、小鹏和理想纷纷开启了从美股到港股的资本争夺之路。\n据悉，蔚来和理想汽车已经秘交了香港上市相关文件。\n不过在此轮“港股智能电动车第一股”的争战中，小鹏汽车拔得头筹，率先取得弹药。\n6月23日，小鹏汽车通过港交所聆讯。\n6月24日，最新招股文件显示公司已正式启动港股上市计划，将发售包括香港公开发售的425万股及国际发售的8075万股新A类普通股，每股最高定价在180港元。同时，向国际承销商授出1275万股超额配售权。\n按照180港元的发行价，小鹏汽车此次募资额预计为153-175.95亿港元。\n目前阿里系牢牢占据第二大股东的位置。\n招股书显示，小鹏汽车董事长何小鹏持股21.75%为最大股东，淘宝中国持股11.9%，IDG资本持股4.8%，小鹏汽车联合创始人、总裁夏珩持股3.8%，五源资本持股3.2%，纪源资本持股2.8%。\n\n来源：招股书\n01\n三年来的双重主要上市第一股，意义重大\n本次小鹏汽车赴港上市距去年8月27日美股敲钟时隔不足1年。\n一般来说，中概股回归A股或港股有三种途径：其一是从美股退市重新在A股或港股上市，其二是保留美股同时在港股第二次上市，其三是保留美股上市地位在美股和港股分别上市，也就是双重主要上市。\n其中双重主要上市所面对的监管更加严格，需要受到美国证券交易委员会（SEC）和香港证券及期货事务监察委员会（SFC）的共同监管。\n小鹏汽车此次回港上市走的即是第三条路，意味着公司在两个证券交易所同时挂牌，且同时满足两地对上市公司的各项监管要求。\n当前已有不少在美上市企业选择港股二次上市。3月23日，百度在港股上市；3月29日，哔哩哔哩（即B站）正式在港交所挂牌；此前，汽车之家也宣布在香港联交所主板开始交易。\n但小鹏是继3年前百济神州在港交所双重主要上市以来的第一家港美双重主要上市公司。\n港交所对此次小鹏回港上市十分重视，据称，因疫情施行线上敲钟一年多的港交所，也有希望为小鹏汽车破例，恢复线下敲钟仪式。\n根据港股通的规定，小鹏汽车在香港主板上市之后，可以满足沪港通与深港通的接入条件，将直接打通A股投资者渠道。此外，小鹏汽车股票在香港和纽约两个交易所间仍可以自由转移和交易。\n对于小鹏来说，港股募资后能够直接打通人民币市场，将资本触角进一步延伸；而对于A股投资者来说，智能电动车也不再遥不可及。\n02\n为什么“第一股”是小鹏？\n小鹏汽车的创始人何小鹏曾经在美股成功敲钟之后说：“多拿弹药非常重要，才能赢得长跑。”\n快速取得弹药的背后是小鹏汽车一直以来引以为傲并重点投入的智能技术。\n而这正是港交所稀缺和渴望的。\n从此前在港二次上市的百度即可见一斑，资本推崇的正是其的“AI第一股”光环。\n而小鹏汽车从2015年成立起，就主打智能技术，并在2017年开始搭建全栈自研体系。根据HIS Markit的数据，小鹏是中国唯一一家自行开发全栈自动驾驶软件的汽车公司。\n因此，小鹏汽车正是港交所需要的在汽车领域能够顶得起“AI”头衔的智能电动车标的。\n从价格对比也可见此次小鹏回港之强势。\n港股此番招股价格已经高达180港元，而去年在美股挂牌时，小鹏的招股价仅15美元，直到6月25日美股收盘，价格为42.16美元。\n03全栈自动驾驶，收入大幅增长，造血加速\n作为国内领先的智能电动汽车厂商之一，小鹏是国内唯一一家自行开发全栈自动驾驶软件的汽车公司，专注于以软件、数据和硬件技术为核心，为自动驾驶、智能互联和核心汽车系统带来创新。\n与传统汽车相比，小鹏汽车集软硬件为一体，已经成为中国中高端电动汽车市场排名前五的畅销品牌。\n\n来源：招股书\n从车辆交付层面来看，小鹏汽车2018、2019、2020年分别交付29辆、12728辆与27041辆，2021年一季度已经交付13340辆，接近去年全年交付数量的一半。\n\n来源：招股书\n截至2021年3月31日，小鹏已经向客户交付30102辆G3车型，交付23036辆P7，并已经于2021年5月推出第三款智能电动汽车网P5。根据IHS Markit数据，该车型预计在交付后将成为首款配备激光雷达的量产智能电动汽车。\n从收入层面，小鹏汽车2018、2019、2020年的总收入分别为人民币970万元、23.12亿元和57.44亿元；2021年一季度，收入为29.51亿元，超过去年总收入的一半。\n\n来源：招股书\n与此同时小鹏汽车的毛利率一路上行，已经在2021年一季度已经提升至11.2%，有望追上理想甚至蔚来。\n此外，小鹏在招股书中披露，其自动辅助驾驶服务XPILOT软件收入占第一季度营收的2.5%。\n如能继续提升软件服务的占比，小鹏将有望走出一条迥异于其他企业的发展方向，早日实现造血功能。\n尾声\n目前，除造车三杰和传统车企外，互联网造车之风也越刮越大。\n其中，华为、360专攻智能网联服务；百度、滴滴、字节切入细分自动驾驶领域，而小米想要做整车一族。\n不过，随着新能源汽车智能化趋势的推进，作为拥有自主研发软硬件一体化的互联网车企，未来小鹏在这个宽广的赛道上还是具备可想象的空间。\n但面对前有狼后是虎的局面，能够拿下港股“智能电动车第一股”对于小鹏汽车的支撑能力不言而喻。\n小鹏汽车承诺，到2023年底或2024年实现收支平衡，但要实现这一目标无疑需要更多的交付量、更高的研发投入以及广泛的产品布局，而这一切都需要更多的资金。\n兵马未动，粮草先行。\n面对未来可能继续的艰苦战役，小鹏已经做好了准备。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"XPEV":0.9,"09868":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1539,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":182625059,"gmtCreate":1623570643871,"gmtModify":1704206432036,"author":{"id":"3581890431374693","authorId":"3581890431374693","name":"王华77","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/bdfbe111612069ded1cd8fb78257fbe7","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3581890431374693","authorIdStr":"3581890431374693"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"??","listText":"??","text":"??","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/182625059","repostId":"1159028389","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1716,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":181102451,"gmtCreate":1623376765173,"gmtModify":1704202012067,"author":{"id":"3581890431374693","authorId":"3581890431374693","name":"王华77","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/bdfbe111612069ded1cd8fb78257fbe7","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3581890431374693","authorIdStr":"3581890431374693"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"?&nbsp;","listText":"?&nbsp;","text":"?","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/181102451","repostId":"1179767026","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1179767026","kind":"news","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"为用户提供金融资讯、行情、数据，旨在帮助投资者理解世界，做投资决策。","home_visible":1,"media_name":"老虎资讯综合","id":"102","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba"},"pubTimestamp":1623361009,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1179767026?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2021-06-11 05:36","market":"sh","language":"zh","title":"Didi submits listing application, management voting rights exceed 50%","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1179767026","media":"老虎资讯综合","summary":"美东时间6月10日，滴滴出行正式向美国证券交易委员会递交IPO申请，拟于纽交所或纳斯达克挂牌上市，股票代码为“DIDI”。招股书显示，截至2021年3月，滴滴在全球15个国家4000多个城市开展业务，平台全球年活跃用户达到4.93亿。招股书显示，IPO之前，滴滴创始人、CEO程维持股7%，联合创始人、总裁柳青持股1.7%。根据中概股常规的同股不同权的安排，程维柳青合计拥有超过48%的投票权，包括程维柳青在内的滴滴管理层拥有超过50%的投票权。","content":"<p>On June 10, Eastern Time, DIDI Chuxing officially submitted an IPO application to the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC), planning to list on the New York Stock Exchange or Nasdaq under the stock code \"DIDI\". According to the prospectus, as of March 2021, Didi has operated in more than 4,000 cities in 15 countries around the world, and the global annual active users of the platform have reached 493 million.</p><p>According to the prospectus, before the IPO, Didi founder and CEO Cheng maintained 7% of the shares, and co-founder and president Liu Qing held 1.7% of the shares. According to the conventional arrangement of different rights for the same shares in China Stock Exchange, Cheng Weiliuqing has more than 48% of the voting rights in total, and Didi management including Cheng Weiliuqing has more than 50% of the voting rights.</p><p>At present, many domestic Internet companies such as JD.COM, Xiaomi, and Pinduoduo have adopted the model of AB shares, that is, the same shares with different rights. It is precisely through this that founders such as Liu Qiangdong, Lei Jun, and Huang Zheng own shares, although they have not reached the level of absolute control, but they can firmly control the company.</p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Didi submits listing application, management voting rights exceed 50%</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nDidi submits listing application, management voting rights exceed 50%\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/102\">\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">老虎资讯综合 </p>\n<p class=\"h-time smaller\">2021-06-11 05:36</p>\n</div>\n</a>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>On June 10, Eastern Time, DIDI Chuxing officially submitted an IPO application to the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC), planning to list on the New York Stock Exchange or Nasdaq under the stock code \"DIDI\". According to the prospectus, as of March 2021, Didi has operated in more than 4,000 cities in 15 countries around the world, and the global annual active users of the platform have reached 493 million.</p><p>According to the prospectus, before the IPO, Didi founder and CEO Cheng maintained 7% of the shares, and co-founder and president Liu Qing held 1.7% of the shares. According to the conventional arrangement of different rights for the same shares in China Stock Exchange, Cheng Weiliuqing has more than 48% of the voting rights in total, and Didi management including Cheng Weiliuqing has more than 50% of the voting rights.</p><p>At present, many domestic Internet companies such as JD.COM, Xiaomi, and Pinduoduo have adopted the model of AB shares, that is, the same shares with different rights. It is precisely through this that founders such as Liu Qiangdong, Lei Jun, and Huang Zheng own shares, although they have not reached the level of absolute control, but they can firmly control the company.</p>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/bf210b0a9da00c82cb2c925171714e26","relate_stocks":{"DIDI":"滴滴(已退市)"},"is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1179767026","content_text":"美东时间6月10日，滴滴出行正式向美国证券交易委员会（SEC）递交IPO申请，拟于纽交所或纳斯达克挂牌上市，股票代码为“DIDI”。招股书显示，截至2021年3月，滴滴在全球15个国家4000多个城市开展业务，平台全球年活跃用户达到4.93亿。\n招股书显示，IPO之前，滴滴创始人、CEO程维持股7%，联合创始人、总裁柳青持股1.7%。根据中概股常规的同股不同权的安排，程维柳青合计拥有超过48%的投票权，包括程维柳青在内的滴滴管理层拥有超过50%的投票权。\n目前国内京东、小米、拼多多等多家互联网公司都采用了AB股即同股不同权的模式，刘强东、雷军、黄峥等创始人也正是借此拥有的股份尽管没有达到绝对控股的程度，却能够牢牢地掌控住公司。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"DIDI":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2214,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":197762979,"gmtCreate":1621486831691,"gmtModify":1704358426903,"author":{"id":"3581890431374693","authorId":"3581890431374693","name":"王华77","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/bdfbe111612069ded1cd8fb78257fbe7","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3581890431374693","authorIdStr":"3581890431374693"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"?&nbsp;","listText":"?&nbsp;","text":"?","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/197762979","repostId":"1199499763","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1199499763","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1621485133,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1199499763?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2021-05-20 12:32","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"\"Cold thinking\" under \"hot inflation\": Will the Fed policy make a sharp turn?","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1199499763","media":"钟正生经济分析","summary":"美国4月通胀指标上行趋势超过市场预期，亦超过基数效应。","content":"<p><b>SUMMARY</b></p><p>The upward trend of U.S. inflation indicators in April exceeded market expectations and also exceeded the base effect. Against the background of the recent resumption of the rise in commodity prices, the market's concerns about U.S. inflation have further intensified, and concerns about the Federal Reserve's \"misjudgment\" of inflation have also emerged.</p><p>Putting aside the intuitive feeling of \"hot inflation\", starting from the U.S. inflation indicators, we will study and judge the trend of CPI and PCE in the coming year, and then further think about what choices the Federal Reserve will make in the face of the surge in inflation indicators.</p><p><b>1. Why did the U.S. CPI index soar in April?</b>Judging from the CPI sub-data in April, there was a \"temporary\" surge in demand when the U.S. economy restarted, such as the faster rise in demand for food, beverage and transportation. Among them, the used car and truck index rose by 10% month-on-month, the largest monthly increase since the index was generated. This sub-item boosted the total CPI index by more than 1/3. The reasons for the sharp rise in used car prices are mostly \"temporary\":</p><p>1) Car rental companies have insufficient supply of used cars. New cars from American car rental companies are usually sold as used cars one year later (or less). However, the epidemic in 2020 forced car rental companies to significantly reduce the purchase of new cars, resulting in a sharp drop in the number of used cars currently entering the market. 2) The recent chip shortage indirectly affects the supply of used cars. 3) Social distancing increases demand for used cars. 4) Economic risks and consumption downgrades increase the demand for used cars.<b>2. Research and judgment of U.S. CPI trend.</b>Qualitative judgment: The price increase of used cars may slow down in May, and the prices of energy products and services are expected to rise further. The CPI in May may still be positive month-on-month, but the growth rate is likely to be smaller than that in April. Quantitative calculations show that the U.S. CPI is expected to be around 4.4% year-on-year in May, and the CPI growth rate for the whole year of 2021 will be 3.2% year-on-year.</p><p><u>However, after getting rid of the base effect in 2022, the year-on-year growth rate of US CPI is expected to return to around 2%, and the CPI in the first quarter of 2022 is expected to be 2.4% year-on-year.</u></p><p><b>3. The correlation between US CPI and PCE.</b>PCE is a measure of inflation that the Federal Reserve pays more attention to. The U.S. PCE and CPI trends are highly synchronized.<u>However, the volatility of PCE is usually less than that of CPI, and the monthly growth rate of PCE is usually lower</u>。 Reason behind this:</p><p>1) Formula effect. The calculation method of PCE considers the substitution effect between commodities after price changes more than CPI. 2) Weight effect. For example, the weight of housing in PCE is significantly less than CPI. According to data since 2019, the \"weight effect\" is the main factor that differs between PCE and CPI trends. It makes PCE fluctuate less than CPI, that is, the weight effect will inhibit PCE from going too high to a certain extent when CPI rises. 3) Range effect. For example, insurance provided by the employer, government health insurance, etc., are only included in the PCE. 4) Other effects. The seasonal adjustment methods of PCE and CPI are different.<b>4. Research and judgment of PCE trends in the United States.</b></p><p>Historically, when the CPI surged, the CPI data since 2000 had a strong prediction ability for PCE. Considering the base effect and the correlation between CPI and PCE, we predict that the year-on-year value of PCE in April 2021 will be in the range of 3.0-3.3%, the year-on-year value of PCE in May will be in the range of 3.0-3.5%, and the year-on-year value of PCE in 2021 will be 2.4-2.6%. In the first quarter of 2022, PCE is expected to fall back to around or below 2% year-on-year.</p><p><b>5. Thoughts on U.S. inflation trends and Federal Reserve policies.</b></p><p>There are many factors supporting the Fed's judgment that inflation is only \"temporary.\" We add four important dimensions of thinking.<b>First, the judgment of this round of commodity cycle. Second, the stabilizing effect of international trade on prices. The third is the sustainability of the fiscal stimulus effect in the United States. The fourth is the Fed's policy strategy.</b></p><p>(According to the Fed's order from \"calm\" to \"flustered\") There are at least five types of situations that may cause the Fed to (at least externally) ignore inflation:</p><p>1) The Fed clearly believes that inflationary pressures will be temporary. 2) (More likely) The Federal Reserve is not sure whether inflation is temporary and chooses to \"stand still\" for further observation and analysis. 3) (More likely) The Federal Reserve judges that the risk of inflation is relatively high, but believes that maintaining employment is more important than preventing inflation, so it has no choice but to \"stand still\". 4) The Federal Reserve judges that the risk of inflation is relatively high, but does not want to take the \"pot\" of excessive fiscal stimulus. 5) The Federal Reserve judged that the risk of inflation was relatively high, but appeased the market slightly \"against its will\", and secretly may have (or will soon) begun to discuss tapering QE.<u>If the Fed remains dovish, then short-term risk assets may still be positive</u>, the interpretation of \"There is wine today and I am drunk today\". However, the market's suspicion is likely to heat up, and it will be very difficult for the Fed to communicate with the market in the future. The market may easily adjust its expectations for the Fed's policy more \"conservatively\" (that is, predict that the Fed's policy will shift ahead of schedule). Therefore, the risk of the market experiencing volatility and adjustment in the next 1-2 months may increase.</p><p>On May 12-13, 2021, U.S. CPI and PPI data were released one after another, and the gains both exceeded market expectations. After the announcement of the CPI on May 12, the market fluctuated violently. The three major U.S. stock indexes all fell by more than 2%. The S&P 500 Volatility Index (VIX) hit a new high in the past two months. The 10-year U.S. bond yield jumped 5bp to 1.69%.</p><p><b>After the announcement of the CPI indicator, a number of Federal Reserve officials made urgent speeches to stabilize market sentiment and continued to be bearish on inflation risks.</b>Market panic seemed to recede quickly on May 13-14, the stock market rebounded, and the 10-year U.S. bond yield fell back to 1.63%.</p><p>It is true that the current rise in U.S. inflation indicators has exceeded market expectations and exceeded the base effect. Moreover, in the context of the recent resumption of commodity gains, the market's concerns about U.S. inflation have further intensified, and concerns about the Fed's \"misjudgment\" of inflation have also emerged.<b>But does this mean that the inflation level in the United States will continue to rise, and will the Federal Reserve be forced to \"shoot\" in helplessness?</b></p><p>We try to put aside the intuitive feeling of \"hot inflation\" as much as possible and conduct a series of \"cold thinking\":<b>Starting from the U.S. inflation indicator (due to the limited attention and information of PPI, we mainly discuss CPI and PCE), why did the U.S. CPI increase in April and can it be sustained? How does the US CPI correlate with the PCE (Personal Consumption Expenditures Index), an inflation measure that the Federal Reserve pays more attention to? How will the Fed respond to higher inflation metrics?</b></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d815795b7fa898d0d8ab1231d28b34b5\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"432\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><b>1. Interpretation of U.S. CPI in April and research and judgment of CPI trends</b></p><p><b>1. Why the U.S. CPI indicator soared in April: the story behind the price increase of used cars</b></p><p>The U.S. CPI in April was 4.2% year-on-year, the highest growth rate since September 2008; 0.8% month-on-month, and market expectations were 0.2%. The core CPI in April was 3.0% year-on-year; 0.9% month-on-month, and market expectations were 0.3%. Overall, the growth rates of U.S. CPI and core CPI in April significantly exceeded market expectations.</p><p>From January to April 2021, the month-on-month growth rates of U.S. CPI were 0.3%, 0.4%, 0.6% and 0.8% respectively, with an average of 0.5%, while the monthly average CPI in 2015-2019 and 2016-2019 were only 0.15% and 0.15% respectively. 0.18%. It can be seen that the reason for the soaring CPI in the United States in 2021 is not as simple as the base effect.</p><p>The performance of U.S. CPI sub-items in April showed three major characteristics:</p><p><b>First, the price increase of used cars is the main driving force.</b>The used car and truck index rose by 10% month-on-month, which was the largest monthly increase since the CPI index was generated in 1953. The previous value was only 0.5%. This sub-item boosted the total CPI index in April by more than 1/3. The price of used cars has significantly boosted the commodity sub-items and even the core CPI.</p><p><b>Why are used car prices soaring in the United States? Most of them are \"temporary\" contradictions between supply and demand after the epidemic:</b></p><p>1) Car rental companies have insufficient supply of used cars. New cars from American car rental companies are generally sold as used cars after a year (or less). In 2020, COVID-19 pandemic forced car rental companies to drastically cut new car purchases, resulting in a sharp drop in the number of used cars currently entering the market.</p><p>2) The recent chip shortage indirectly affects the supply of used cars. The shortage of chips has slowed down the manufacturing of new cars, and then the replacement of used cars has also slowed down, and the number of used cars put on the market has become more limited.</p><p>3) Social distancing increases demand for used cars. After the epidemic, a large number of residents reduced public transportation, worked remotely, moved to suburbs, etc., and the demand for used cars increased.</p><p>4) Economic risks and consumption downgrades increase the demand for used cars. To save money during times of volatile economic conditions, especially when new car and truck prices are at historically high levels, U.S. residents tend to choose used vehicles.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/434743dea03c373e95b3ca9b6572d174\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"822\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><b>Second, energy prices fell instead of rising month-on-month.</b>In April, the energy sub-item decreased slightly by 0.1% month-on-month, and energy products (-1.4%), gasoline (-1.4%) and crude oil (-3.2%) all decreased month-on-month, which is in line with the recent rise in commodity prices that we have intuitively felt. deviation. However, all energy product sub-items still rose sharply by 25.1% year-on-year. The weight of this sub-item in the CPI was 6.9%, and its contribution to the year-on-year growth rate of CPI in April was 1.73 percentage points.</p><p><b>Third, transportation services lead the increase in service sub-items.</b>In April, the transportation service sub-item rose by 2.9% month-on-month, significantly ahead of the 1.8% of the previous value; It increased by 5.6% year-on-year, significantly exceeding the 2.5% year-on-year of all service sub-items. Among them, aviation expenses and motor vehicle insurance increased by 10.2% and 2.5% respectively from the previous month. The transportation service sub-item has an important pull on all service sub-items and even the core CPI.</p><p>Taken together, the April CPI data reflects that,<b>When the U.S. economy restarted, there was a \"temporary\" surge in demand, reflected in a faster rise in demand for food, beverage and transportation.</b>With the control of the epidemic situation in the United States and the recovery of offline consumption and travel scenarios, it is understandable that the related demand growth will drive prices to rise in the short term.</p><p><b>2. Research and judgment of U.S. CPI trend: base effect and \"temporary\" factors</b></p><p>We predict that the month-on-month growth rate of U.S. CPI is expected to slow down in May 2021, the CPI may drop significantly year-on-year in the second half of the year, and the CPI is expected to return to \"normal\" in 2022.</p><p>First, in terms of used cars and trucks, the above-mentioned contradiction between supply and demand may cause prices to remain high in 2021.<b>But it is difficult to rise rapidly again in May.</b>Moreover, the contradiction between supply and demand is mostly \"temporary\" and is expected to be basically eliminated in 2022, helping the growth rate of US CPI and core CPI fall back in 2022.</p><p>Second, although the energy sub-item declined month-on-month in April, combined with the large gains after mid-April, the energy sub-item may rebound month-on-month in May. However, we are cautious about the medium and long-term trend of energy prices (especially crude oil). The main reason is that the elasticity of international crude oil supply is still strong at this stage, and the growth rate of energy sub-items in 2022 is likely to return to at least the historical average level.</p><p>Third, the price of service items may rise further due to the continued improvement of the epidemic situation in the United States and the recovery of consumption scenarios. But the question that needs to be considered now is, what is the relationship between the recovery of service consumption in the United States and commodity consumption? Are the two more \"complementary products\" or \"substitutes\"?</p><p>We believe that with the recovery of service consumption, the strong durable goods consumption in the United States is likely to fall month-on-month, and the non-durable goods consumption may level out under the hedging effect of complementarity and substitution.</p><p>Taken together, the U.S. CPI in May may still be positive month-on-month, but it is likely to be less than the growth rate in April. This means that due to base reasons, the year-on-year CPI reading in May may be higher than in April. However, after getting rid of the base effect in 2022, the year-on-year growth rate of U.S. CPI is expected to return to around 2%.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/562a892c44ea2161d2b38056da660770\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"832\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><b>2. Research and judgment on the correlation between US CPI and PCE and PCE trend</b></p><p><b>1. Correlation between US CPI and PCE: systematic differences</b></p><p>The U.S. Personal Consumption Expenditure Index (PCE) is a measure of inflation that the Federal Reserve pays more attention to. Its relationship with CPI is:</p><p>1) In terms of statistical sources, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) is responsible for counting CPI, based on questionnaires of consumers; The Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) is responsible for counting and measuring PCE, based on the CPI values calculated by BLS and other information collected by it.</p><p>2) Functionally,<b>Both are indicators to measure prices.</b>CPI may receive more attention, its statistical history is longer, and CPI is widely used in the United States, such as adjusting social security expenditures and adjusting interest rates of many financial products (such as TIPS inflation-protected Treasury Bond). PCE is the reference for the Fed's inflation target.</p><p>3) Looking at the trend of indicators,<b>Historically, the trends of PCE and CPI have a high degree of synchronization, but the volatility of PCE is usually less than that of CPI, and the monthly year-on-year growth rate of PCE is systematically lower than that of CPI.</b>We estimate that from January 2000 to March 2021, the correlation coefficient between U.S. PCE and CPI (monthly year-on-year growth rate, the same below) was 0.983, and the correlation coefficient between core PCE and core CPI was 0.966; The monthly volatility of PCE is 0.93%, and the volatility of CPI is 1.23%; The PCE month-on-month average is 1.81%, and the CPI average is 2.12%.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/11f02447cc98b24312c9cd9fe75b47ba\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"538\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>According to official data from the Federal Reserve, there are four reasons for the difference between PCE and CPI values:</p><p><b>1) formula effects,</b>The PCE calculation is based on the chain Fisher formula, while the CPI is based on the modified Laspeyres formula. The key difference is that the PCE takes into account the substitution effect between goods after price changes more than the CPI. For example, if the price of a commodity rises and residents' purchases decrease, the PCE calculation will use a new \"basket\" to reflect changes in people's consumption behavior.</p><p><b>2) weight effect,</b>That is, the same goods in the two \"baskets\" are given different weights. The weight of CPI uses the weight in the survey of residents' purchases, while PCE uses the weight in the survey of enterprises' sales of products. For example, the weight of housing in the U.S. PCE is significantly smaller than the CPI. In 2021Q1, the seasonally adjusted quarter-on-quarter annualized rate of PCE was 0.31 percentage points lower than the CPI due to different housing weights.</p><p>According to data since 2019, the \"weight effect\" is the main factor that differs between PCE and CPI trends. It makes PCE fluctuate less than CPI, that is, the weight effect will inhibit PCE from going too high to a certain extent when CPI rises.</p><p><b>3) Range effect,</b>That is, the two \"baskets\" cover different commodities. The CPI only covers residents' out-of-pocket spending on goods and services, while the PCE also covers spending by nonprofit agencies that serve households. For example, insurance provided by the employer, government health insurance, etc., are only included in the PCE.</p><p><b>4) other effects,</b>Including seasonally adjusted differences, price differences and residual differences, etc. The seasonal adjustment methods of PCE and CPI are different.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/183c32625966a0b7ca483a37388c65f0\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"673\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><b>2. U.S. PCE trend research and judgment: forecast based on CPI data</b></p><p>The U.S. CPI data since 2000 has a strong prediction ability for PCE. We tried to use two sets of U.S. CPI monthly and year-on-year data to perform OLS model fitting on the U.S. PCE monthly and year-on-year (fit 1 uses data from January 1960 to March 2021, and fit 2 uses data from January 2000 to March 2021), and focus on observing the fitting situation of the period of higher CPI since 1990 (more than 2% monthly year-on-year).</p><p>We found that the PCE fitting value with CPI data since 2000 is more consistent with the actual value. Especially in the period when the year-on-year growth rate of CPI is soaring, it can usually be observed that the actual growth rate of CPI > PCE fit 1 > PCE fit 2 > = the actual growth rate of PCE (Chart 7). According to the April U.S. CPI month-on-month (4.2%), the April PCE fit values of the two models were 3.7% and 3.3%, respectively.</p><p>Considering the base effect and the correlation between CPI and PCE, we predict that the year-on-year value of PCE in April 2021 will be in the range of 3.0-3.3%, and the year-on-year value of PCE in May will be in the range of 3.0-3.5% (or the high point of the whole year). The year-on-year value of PCE is in the range of 2.4-2.6% (slightly higher than the 2.4% median forecast of the Federal Reserve in March), and the year-on-year growth rate of PCE in the first quarter of 2022 is expected to fall back to around 2% or below.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8d593ef0e3bd5ca806708e8683a5c5e8\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"578\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/84a5323627607cfa343eba4f82e43254\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"878\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><b>3. Thoughts on U.S. inflation trends and Federal Reserve policies</b></p><p>After the U.S. CPI was released in April, Fed officials \"did not hesitate\" to be bearish on inflation risks.<u>Bloomberg issued a document stating that</u><u><b>There may be six major factors supporting the Fed's judgment: inflation expectations, sluggish employment, price stickiness, disruptive technology, pricing power, and base effect</b></u><b>。</b>On this basis, we add additional<b>Four important dimensions of thinking</b>：</p><p><b>First, the judgment of this round of commodity cycle.</b>We are more cautious about this round of commodity cycle (refer to the report \"Is the\" super cycle \"of commodities coming?\").</p><p>The key reason is that the driving force of this round of commodity price increases is more on the supply side than on the demand side. In this round of commodity cycle, the only thing that is expected to become a \"super engine\" on the global demand side may be the pull of aggregate demand driven by the transformation of China, the United States and even the global \"green economy\". However, there is still great uncertainty about whether the release rhythm of this process can be faster than the self-regulation of the supply side.</p><p><b>Second, the stabilizing effect of international trade on prices.</b>Starting from the second half of 2020, the economic recovery in Europe and the United States has boosted exports from emerging markets around the world (especially Asia). In the first quarter of 2021, the U.S. trade deficit expanded to a record, Asian exports remained strong, and European manufacturing also quietly made efforts.</p><p><b>The United States under Biden's leadership is expected to be more open to international trade, and commodity price pressures may also become a catalyst for countries to repair trade relations.</b>For example, on May 17, the metal tariff war between the EU and the United States was announced to be suspended. From this point of view, in the future, the United States is expected to continue to control its own consumption and production costs through international division of labor, and curb inflation to a certain extent.</p><p><b>The third is the sustainability of the fiscal stimulus effect in the United States.</b>On the one hand, the $1.9 trillion bailout bill introduced by Biden in January this year is \"one-time.\" With the recent unsatisfactory recovery of the job market, many states in the United States have begun to reduce or suspend the payment of unemployment assistance. On the other hand, the Republican Party's attitude towards Biden's infrastructure plan has become clearer recently. For example, the media predicts that the scale of the revised infrastructure plan to be announced by the Republican Party on May 18 is only US $568 billion, which is only a quarter of Biden's 2.3 trillion proposal.</p><p>What's more, the phenomenon of \"slow employment + fast inflation\" shown in the just-released U.S. economic data in April may further trigger public controversy about the effects and side effects of fiscal stimulus. If the scale of infrastructure plans shrinks significantly in the future, whether it is its upward effect on the U.S. inflation center or its blow to public inflation expectations, it may further curb the rise in inflation.</p><p><b>The fourth is the Fed's policy strategy.</b>Regarding the future inflation trend, except for the \"base effect\", which is an \"objective problem\" that can be solved through careful calculation, the rest are mostly \"subjective questions\". We believe that if we break down (in order of the Fed from \"calm\" to \"flustered\"), there are at least five types of situations that may cause the Fed to (at least externally) ignore inflation:</p><p><b>First, the Federal Reserve currently has a relatively clear judgment that inflationary pressure in the United States will be temporary and controllable.</b></p><p><b>Second (more likely), the Fed is not sure whether inflation is temporary, but it is difficult to conclude that inflation risks are worrying based on the higher CPI in April.</b>The most rational choice in \"uncertainty\" is to \"stand still\" for further observation and analysis.</p><p><b>Third (more likely), the Federal Reserve may have judged that the risk of inflation is high, but the foundation for employment and the recovery of the real economy is not yet solid, and believes that maintaining employment is more important than preventing inflation.</b>Therefore, I have no choice but to \"stand still\".</p><p><b>Fourth, the Federal Reserve may have judged that the risk of inflation is high, but believes that this is not caused by monetary policy, but the \"pot\" of the Biden administration's excessive fiscal stimulus.</b>Then try to maintain the rhythm of \"no sharp turns\" in order to demonstrate the rationality of monetary policy.</p><p><b>Fifth, the Federal Reserve may have judged that the risk of inflation is high, but considering that monetary policy needs to \"not make a sharp turn\" to avoid market shocks under the \"tightening panic\",</b>Therefore, we have to appease the market slightly \"against our will\", but secretly we may have (or will soon) begun to discuss reducing QE.</p><p><b>But no matter what the situation is, two things can be relatively certain: First, there is a high probability that the Fed will not make a \"sharp turn\". Second, we need to be alert to the risk of market fluctuations.</b></p><p>In the short term, if the Fed remains dovish, market risk appetite may not necessarily fall significantly, and risky assets may still perform positively, interpreting \"there is wine today and drunk today.\" But when the Fed and the market face too many \"subjective questions\", the market's suspicion is likely to heat up, which at least means that it will be very difficult for the Fed to communicate with the market in the future.</p><p>Looking further, the market may easily adjust its expectations for the rhythm of the Fed's policy to be more \"conservative\", that is, predict that the Fed's policy will shift ahead of schedule. Therefore, the risk of the market experiencing volatility and adjustment in the next 1-2 months may increase.</p>","source":"lsy1602814587747","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>\"Cold thinking\" under \"hot inflation\": Will the Fed policy make a sharp turn?</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n\"Cold thinking\" under \"hot inflation\": Will the Fed policy make a sharp turn?\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">钟正生经济分析</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-05-20 12:32</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><b>SUMMARY</b></p><p>The upward trend of U.S. inflation indicators in April exceeded market expectations and also exceeded the base effect. Against the background of the recent resumption of the rise in commodity prices, the market's concerns about U.S. inflation have further intensified, and concerns about the Federal Reserve's \"misjudgment\" of inflation have also emerged.</p><p>Putting aside the intuitive feeling of \"hot inflation\", starting from the U.S. inflation indicators, we will study and judge the trend of CPI and PCE in the coming year, and then further think about what choices the Federal Reserve will make in the face of the surge in inflation indicators.</p><p><b>1. Why did the U.S. CPI index soar in April?</b>Judging from the CPI sub-data in April, there was a \"temporary\" surge in demand when the U.S. economy restarted, such as the faster rise in demand for food, beverage and transportation. Among them, the used car and truck index rose by 10% month-on-month, the largest monthly increase since the index was generated. This sub-item boosted the total CPI index by more than 1/3. The reasons for the sharp rise in used car prices are mostly \"temporary\":</p><p>1) Car rental companies have insufficient supply of used cars. New cars from American car rental companies are usually sold as used cars one year later (or less). However, the epidemic in 2020 forced car rental companies to significantly reduce the purchase of new cars, resulting in a sharp drop in the number of used cars currently entering the market. 2) The recent chip shortage indirectly affects the supply of used cars. 3) Social distancing increases demand for used cars. 4) Economic risks and consumption downgrades increase the demand for used cars.<b>2. Research and judgment of U.S. CPI trend.</b>Qualitative judgment: The price increase of used cars may slow down in May, and the prices of energy products and services are expected to rise further. The CPI in May may still be positive month-on-month, but the growth rate is likely to be smaller than that in April. Quantitative calculations show that the U.S. CPI is expected to be around 4.4% year-on-year in May, and the CPI growth rate for the whole year of 2021 will be 3.2% year-on-year.</p><p><u>However, after getting rid of the base effect in 2022, the year-on-year growth rate of US CPI is expected to return to around 2%, and the CPI in the first quarter of 2022 is expected to be 2.4% year-on-year.</u></p><p><b>3. The correlation between US CPI and PCE.</b>PCE is a measure of inflation that the Federal Reserve pays more attention to. The U.S. PCE and CPI trends are highly synchronized.<u>However, the volatility of PCE is usually less than that of CPI, and the monthly growth rate of PCE is usually lower</u>。 Reason behind this:</p><p>1) Formula effect. The calculation method of PCE considers the substitution effect between commodities after price changes more than CPI. 2) Weight effect. For example, the weight of housing in PCE is significantly less than CPI. According to data since 2019, the \"weight effect\" is the main factor that differs between PCE and CPI trends. It makes PCE fluctuate less than CPI, that is, the weight effect will inhibit PCE from going too high to a certain extent when CPI rises. 3) Range effect. For example, insurance provided by the employer, government health insurance, etc., are only included in the PCE. 4) Other effects. The seasonal adjustment methods of PCE and CPI are different.<b>4. Research and judgment of PCE trends in the United States.</b></p><p>Historically, when the CPI surged, the CPI data since 2000 had a strong prediction ability for PCE. Considering the base effect and the correlation between CPI and PCE, we predict that the year-on-year value of PCE in April 2021 will be in the range of 3.0-3.3%, the year-on-year value of PCE in May will be in the range of 3.0-3.5%, and the year-on-year value of PCE in 2021 will be 2.4-2.6%. In the first quarter of 2022, PCE is expected to fall back to around or below 2% year-on-year.</p><p><b>5. Thoughts on U.S. inflation trends and Federal Reserve policies.</b></p><p>There are many factors supporting the Fed's judgment that inflation is only \"temporary.\" We add four important dimensions of thinking.<b>First, the judgment of this round of commodity cycle. Second, the stabilizing effect of international trade on prices. The third is the sustainability of the fiscal stimulus effect in the United States. The fourth is the Fed's policy strategy.</b></p><p>(According to the Fed's order from \"calm\" to \"flustered\") There are at least five types of situations that may cause the Fed to (at least externally) ignore inflation:</p><p>1) The Fed clearly believes that inflationary pressures will be temporary. 2) (More likely) The Federal Reserve is not sure whether inflation is temporary and chooses to \"stand still\" for further observation and analysis. 3) (More likely) The Federal Reserve judges that the risk of inflation is relatively high, but believes that maintaining employment is more important than preventing inflation, so it has no choice but to \"stand still\". 4) The Federal Reserve judges that the risk of inflation is relatively high, but does not want to take the \"pot\" of excessive fiscal stimulus. 5) The Federal Reserve judged that the risk of inflation was relatively high, but appeased the market slightly \"against its will\", and secretly may have (or will soon) begun to discuss tapering QE.<u>If the Fed remains dovish, then short-term risk assets may still be positive</u>, the interpretation of \"There is wine today and I am drunk today\". However, the market's suspicion is likely to heat up, and it will be very difficult for the Fed to communicate with the market in the future. The market may easily adjust its expectations for the Fed's policy more \"conservatively\" (that is, predict that the Fed's policy will shift ahead of schedule). Therefore, the risk of the market experiencing volatility and adjustment in the next 1-2 months may increase.</p><p>On May 12-13, 2021, U.S. CPI and PPI data were released one after another, and the gains both exceeded market expectations. After the announcement of the CPI on May 12, the market fluctuated violently. The three major U.S. stock indexes all fell by more than 2%. The S&P 500 Volatility Index (VIX) hit a new high in the past two months. The 10-year U.S. bond yield jumped 5bp to 1.69%.</p><p><b>After the announcement of the CPI indicator, a number of Federal Reserve officials made urgent speeches to stabilize market sentiment and continued to be bearish on inflation risks.</b>Market panic seemed to recede quickly on May 13-14, the stock market rebounded, and the 10-year U.S. bond yield fell back to 1.63%.</p><p>It is true that the current rise in U.S. inflation indicators has exceeded market expectations and exceeded the base effect. Moreover, in the context of the recent resumption of commodity gains, the market's concerns about U.S. inflation have further intensified, and concerns about the Fed's \"misjudgment\" of inflation have also emerged.<b>But does this mean that the inflation level in the United States will continue to rise, and will the Federal Reserve be forced to \"shoot\" in helplessness?</b></p><p>We try to put aside the intuitive feeling of \"hot inflation\" as much as possible and conduct a series of \"cold thinking\":<b>Starting from the U.S. inflation indicator (due to the limited attention and information of PPI, we mainly discuss CPI and PCE), why did the U.S. CPI increase in April and can it be sustained? How does the US CPI correlate with the PCE (Personal Consumption Expenditures Index), an inflation measure that the Federal Reserve pays more attention to? How will the Fed respond to higher inflation metrics?</b></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d815795b7fa898d0d8ab1231d28b34b5\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"432\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><b>1. Interpretation of U.S. CPI in April and research and judgment of CPI trends</b></p><p><b>1. Why the U.S. CPI indicator soared in April: the story behind the price increase of used cars</b></p><p>The U.S. CPI in April was 4.2% year-on-year, the highest growth rate since September 2008; 0.8% month-on-month, and market expectations were 0.2%. The core CPI in April was 3.0% year-on-year; 0.9% month-on-month, and market expectations were 0.3%. Overall, the growth rates of U.S. CPI and core CPI in April significantly exceeded market expectations.</p><p>From January to April 2021, the month-on-month growth rates of U.S. CPI were 0.3%, 0.4%, 0.6% and 0.8% respectively, with an average of 0.5%, while the monthly average CPI in 2015-2019 and 2016-2019 were only 0.15% and 0.15% respectively. 0.18%. It can be seen that the reason for the soaring CPI in the United States in 2021 is not as simple as the base effect.</p><p>The performance of U.S. CPI sub-items in April showed three major characteristics:</p><p><b>First, the price increase of used cars is the main driving force.</b>The used car and truck index rose by 10% month-on-month, which was the largest monthly increase since the CPI index was generated in 1953. The previous value was only 0.5%. This sub-item boosted the total CPI index in April by more than 1/3. The price of used cars has significantly boosted the commodity sub-items and even the core CPI.</p><p><b>Why are used car prices soaring in the United States? Most of them are \"temporary\" contradictions between supply and demand after the epidemic:</b></p><p>1) Car rental companies have insufficient supply of used cars. New cars from American car rental companies are generally sold as used cars after a year (or less). In 2020, COVID-19 pandemic forced car rental companies to drastically cut new car purchases, resulting in a sharp drop in the number of used cars currently entering the market.</p><p>2) The recent chip shortage indirectly affects the supply of used cars. The shortage of chips has slowed down the manufacturing of new cars, and then the replacement of used cars has also slowed down, and the number of used cars put on the market has become more limited.</p><p>3) Social distancing increases demand for used cars. After the epidemic, a large number of residents reduced public transportation, worked remotely, moved to suburbs, etc., and the demand for used cars increased.</p><p>4) Economic risks and consumption downgrades increase the demand for used cars. To save money during times of volatile economic conditions, especially when new car and truck prices are at historically high levels, U.S. residents tend to choose used vehicles.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/434743dea03c373e95b3ca9b6572d174\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"822\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><b>Second, energy prices fell instead of rising month-on-month.</b>In April, the energy sub-item decreased slightly by 0.1% month-on-month, and energy products (-1.4%), gasoline (-1.4%) and crude oil (-3.2%) all decreased month-on-month, which is in line with the recent rise in commodity prices that we have intuitively felt. deviation. However, all energy product sub-items still rose sharply by 25.1% year-on-year. The weight of this sub-item in the CPI was 6.9%, and its contribution to the year-on-year growth rate of CPI in April was 1.73 percentage points.</p><p><b>Third, transportation services lead the increase in service sub-items.</b>In April, the transportation service sub-item rose by 2.9% month-on-month, significantly ahead of the 1.8% of the previous value; It increased by 5.6% year-on-year, significantly exceeding the 2.5% year-on-year of all service sub-items. Among them, aviation expenses and motor vehicle insurance increased by 10.2% and 2.5% respectively from the previous month. The transportation service sub-item has an important pull on all service sub-items and even the core CPI.</p><p>Taken together, the April CPI data reflects that,<b>When the U.S. economy restarted, there was a \"temporary\" surge in demand, reflected in a faster rise in demand for food, beverage and transportation.</b>With the control of the epidemic situation in the United States and the recovery of offline consumption and travel scenarios, it is understandable that the related demand growth will drive prices to rise in the short term.</p><p><b>2. Research and judgment of U.S. CPI trend: base effect and \"temporary\" factors</b></p><p>We predict that the month-on-month growth rate of U.S. CPI is expected to slow down in May 2021, the CPI may drop significantly year-on-year in the second half of the year, and the CPI is expected to return to \"normal\" in 2022.</p><p>First, in terms of used cars and trucks, the above-mentioned contradiction between supply and demand may cause prices to remain high in 2021.<b>But it is difficult to rise rapidly again in May.</b>Moreover, the contradiction between supply and demand is mostly \"temporary\" and is expected to be basically eliminated in 2022, helping the growth rate of US CPI and core CPI fall back in 2022.</p><p>Second, although the energy sub-item declined month-on-month in April, combined with the large gains after mid-April, the energy sub-item may rebound month-on-month in May. However, we are cautious about the medium and long-term trend of energy prices (especially crude oil). The main reason is that the elasticity of international crude oil supply is still strong at this stage, and the growth rate of energy sub-items in 2022 is likely to return to at least the historical average level.</p><p>Third, the price of service items may rise further due to the continued improvement of the epidemic situation in the United States and the recovery of consumption scenarios. But the question that needs to be considered now is, what is the relationship between the recovery of service consumption in the United States and commodity consumption? Are the two more \"complementary products\" or \"substitutes\"?</p><p>We believe that with the recovery of service consumption, the strong durable goods consumption in the United States is likely to fall month-on-month, and the non-durable goods consumption may level out under the hedging effect of complementarity and substitution.</p><p>Taken together, the U.S. CPI in May may still be positive month-on-month, but it is likely to be less than the growth rate in April. This means that due to base reasons, the year-on-year CPI reading in May may be higher than in April. However, after getting rid of the base effect in 2022, the year-on-year growth rate of U.S. CPI is expected to return to around 2%.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/562a892c44ea2161d2b38056da660770\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"832\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><b>2. Research and judgment on the correlation between US CPI and PCE and PCE trend</b></p><p><b>1. Correlation between US CPI and PCE: systematic differences</b></p><p>The U.S. Personal Consumption Expenditure Index (PCE) is a measure of inflation that the Federal Reserve pays more attention to. Its relationship with CPI is:</p><p>1) In terms of statistical sources, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) is responsible for counting CPI, based on questionnaires of consumers; The Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) is responsible for counting and measuring PCE, based on the CPI values calculated by BLS and other information collected by it.</p><p>2) Functionally,<b>Both are indicators to measure prices.</b>CPI may receive more attention, its statistical history is longer, and CPI is widely used in the United States, such as adjusting social security expenditures and adjusting interest rates of many financial products (such as TIPS inflation-protected Treasury Bond). PCE is the reference for the Fed's inflation target.</p><p>3) Looking at the trend of indicators,<b>Historically, the trends of PCE and CPI have a high degree of synchronization, but the volatility of PCE is usually less than that of CPI, and the monthly year-on-year growth rate of PCE is systematically lower than that of CPI.</b>We estimate that from January 2000 to March 2021, the correlation coefficient between U.S. PCE and CPI (monthly year-on-year growth rate, the same below) was 0.983, and the correlation coefficient between core PCE and core CPI was 0.966; The monthly volatility of PCE is 0.93%, and the volatility of CPI is 1.23%; The PCE month-on-month average is 1.81%, and the CPI average is 2.12%.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/11f02447cc98b24312c9cd9fe75b47ba\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"538\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>According to official data from the Federal Reserve, there are four reasons for the difference between PCE and CPI values:</p><p><b>1) formula effects,</b>The PCE calculation is based on the chain Fisher formula, while the CPI is based on the modified Laspeyres formula. The key difference is that the PCE takes into account the substitution effect between goods after price changes more than the CPI. For example, if the price of a commodity rises and residents' purchases decrease, the PCE calculation will use a new \"basket\" to reflect changes in people's consumption behavior.</p><p><b>2) weight effect,</b>That is, the same goods in the two \"baskets\" are given different weights. The weight of CPI uses the weight in the survey of residents' purchases, while PCE uses the weight in the survey of enterprises' sales of products. For example, the weight of housing in the U.S. PCE is significantly smaller than the CPI. In 2021Q1, the seasonally adjusted quarter-on-quarter annualized rate of PCE was 0.31 percentage points lower than the CPI due to different housing weights.</p><p>According to data since 2019, the \"weight effect\" is the main factor that differs between PCE and CPI trends. It makes PCE fluctuate less than CPI, that is, the weight effect will inhibit PCE from going too high to a certain extent when CPI rises.</p><p><b>3) Range effect,</b>That is, the two \"baskets\" cover different commodities. The CPI only covers residents' out-of-pocket spending on goods and services, while the PCE also covers spending by nonprofit agencies that serve households. For example, insurance provided by the employer, government health insurance, etc., are only included in the PCE.</p><p><b>4) other effects,</b>Including seasonally adjusted differences, price differences and residual differences, etc. The seasonal adjustment methods of PCE and CPI are different.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/183c32625966a0b7ca483a37388c65f0\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"673\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><b>2. U.S. PCE trend research and judgment: forecast based on CPI data</b></p><p>The U.S. CPI data since 2000 has a strong prediction ability for PCE. We tried to use two sets of U.S. CPI monthly and year-on-year data to perform OLS model fitting on the U.S. PCE monthly and year-on-year (fit 1 uses data from January 1960 to March 2021, and fit 2 uses data from January 2000 to March 2021), and focus on observing the fitting situation of the period of higher CPI since 1990 (more than 2% monthly year-on-year).</p><p>We found that the PCE fitting value with CPI data since 2000 is more consistent with the actual value. Especially in the period when the year-on-year growth rate of CPI is soaring, it can usually be observed that the actual growth rate of CPI > PCE fit 1 > PCE fit 2 > = the actual growth rate of PCE (Chart 7). According to the April U.S. CPI month-on-month (4.2%), the April PCE fit values of the two models were 3.7% and 3.3%, respectively.</p><p>Considering the base effect and the correlation between CPI and PCE, we predict that the year-on-year value of PCE in April 2021 will be in the range of 3.0-3.3%, and the year-on-year value of PCE in May will be in the range of 3.0-3.5% (or the high point of the whole year). The year-on-year value of PCE is in the range of 2.4-2.6% (slightly higher than the 2.4% median forecast of the Federal Reserve in March), and the year-on-year growth rate of PCE in the first quarter of 2022 is expected to fall back to around 2% or below.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8d593ef0e3bd5ca806708e8683a5c5e8\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"578\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/84a5323627607cfa343eba4f82e43254\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"878\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><b>3. Thoughts on U.S. inflation trends and Federal Reserve policies</b></p><p>After the U.S. CPI was released in April, Fed officials \"did not hesitate\" to be bearish on inflation risks.<u>Bloomberg issued a document stating that</u><u><b>There may be six major factors supporting the Fed's judgment: inflation expectations, sluggish employment, price stickiness, disruptive technology, pricing power, and base effect</b></u><b>。</b>On this basis, we add additional<b>Four important dimensions of thinking</b>：</p><p><b>First, the judgment of this round of commodity cycle.</b>We are more cautious about this round of commodity cycle (refer to the report \"Is the\" super cycle \"of commodities coming?\").</p><p>The key reason is that the driving force of this round of commodity price increases is more on the supply side than on the demand side. In this round of commodity cycle, the only thing that is expected to become a \"super engine\" on the global demand side may be the pull of aggregate demand driven by the transformation of China, the United States and even the global \"green economy\". However, there is still great uncertainty about whether the release rhythm of this process can be faster than the self-regulation of the supply side.</p><p><b>Second, the stabilizing effect of international trade on prices.</b>Starting from the second half of 2020, the economic recovery in Europe and the United States has boosted exports from emerging markets around the world (especially Asia). In the first quarter of 2021, the U.S. trade deficit expanded to a record, Asian exports remained strong, and European manufacturing also quietly made efforts.</p><p><b>The United States under Biden's leadership is expected to be more open to international trade, and commodity price pressures may also become a catalyst for countries to repair trade relations.</b>For example, on May 17, the metal tariff war between the EU and the United States was announced to be suspended. From this point of view, in the future, the United States is expected to continue to control its own consumption and production costs through international division of labor, and curb inflation to a certain extent.</p><p><b>The third is the sustainability of the fiscal stimulus effect in the United States.</b>On the one hand, the $1.9 trillion bailout bill introduced by Biden in January this year is \"one-time.\" With the recent unsatisfactory recovery of the job market, many states in the United States have begun to reduce or suspend the payment of unemployment assistance. On the other hand, the Republican Party's attitude towards Biden's infrastructure plan has become clearer recently. For example, the media predicts that the scale of the revised infrastructure plan to be announced by the Republican Party on May 18 is only US $568 billion, which is only a quarter of Biden's 2.3 trillion proposal.</p><p>What's more, the phenomenon of \"slow employment + fast inflation\" shown in the just-released U.S. economic data in April may further trigger public controversy about the effects and side effects of fiscal stimulus. If the scale of infrastructure plans shrinks significantly in the future, whether it is its upward effect on the U.S. inflation center or its blow to public inflation expectations, it may further curb the rise in inflation.</p><p><b>The fourth is the Fed's policy strategy.</b>Regarding the future inflation trend, except for the \"base effect\", which is an \"objective problem\" that can be solved through careful calculation, the rest are mostly \"subjective questions\". We believe that if we break down (in order of the Fed from \"calm\" to \"flustered\"), there are at least five types of situations that may cause the Fed to (at least externally) ignore inflation:</p><p><b>First, the Federal Reserve currently has a relatively clear judgment that inflationary pressure in the United States will be temporary and controllable.</b></p><p><b>Second (more likely), the Fed is not sure whether inflation is temporary, but it is difficult to conclude that inflation risks are worrying based on the higher CPI in April.</b>The most rational choice in \"uncertainty\" is to \"stand still\" for further observation and analysis.</p><p><b>Third (more likely), the Federal Reserve may have judged that the risk of inflation is high, but the foundation for employment and the recovery of the real economy is not yet solid, and believes that maintaining employment is more important than preventing inflation.</b>Therefore, I have no choice but to \"stand still\".</p><p><b>Fourth, the Federal Reserve may have judged that the risk of inflation is high, but believes that this is not caused by monetary policy, but the \"pot\" of the Biden administration's excessive fiscal stimulus.</b>Then try to maintain the rhythm of \"no sharp turns\" in order to demonstrate the rationality of monetary policy.</p><p><b>Fifth, the Federal Reserve may have judged that the risk of inflation is high, but considering that monetary policy needs to \"not make a sharp turn\" to avoid market shocks under the \"tightening panic\",</b>Therefore, we have to appease the market slightly \"against our will\", but secretly we may have (or will soon) begun to discuss reducing QE.</p><p><b>But no matter what the situation is, two things can be relatively certain: First, there is a high probability that the Fed will not make a \"sharp turn\". Second, we need to be alert to the risk of market fluctuations.</b></p><p>In the short term, if the Fed remains dovish, market risk appetite may not necessarily fall significantly, and risky assets may still perform positively, interpreting \"there is wine today and drunk today.\" But when the Fed and the market face too many \"subjective questions\", the market's suspicion is likely to heat up, which at least means that it will be very difficult for the Fed to communicate with the market in the future.</p><p>Looking further, the market may easily adjust its expectations for the rhythm of the Fed's policy to be more \"conservative\", that is, predict that the Fed's policy will shift ahead of schedule. Therefore, the risk of the market experiencing volatility and adjustment in the next 1-2 months may increase.</p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> source：<a href=\"https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s/lszLZJIUe5-eNO1cIbjGsA\">钟正生经济分析</a></p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0f9e9a265cb0e7e8cb195039b2fe24a4","relate_stocks":{".DJI":"道琼斯"},"source_url":"https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s/lszLZJIUe5-eNO1cIbjGsA","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1199499763","content_text":"摘要\n美国4月通胀指标上行趋势超过市场预期，亦超过基数效应。在近期大宗商品价格重启涨势的背景下，市场对于美国通胀的担忧进一步加剧，对于美联储“误判”通胀的担忧亦有显现。\n抛开“热通胀”的直观感受，由美国通胀指标出发，我们对未来一年CPI和PCE走势进行研判，继而进一步思考，美联储面对通胀指标的蹿升会做何选择。\n1、美国4月CPI指标缘何蹿升？从4月CPI分项数据看，美国经济重启时出现了“暂时性”的需求激增，如食品饮料和交通出行的需求更快上升。其中，二手车和卡车指数环比升10%，为指数生成以来的最大月度涨幅，这一分项对CPI总指数的拉动超过1/3。而二手车价格急涨的原因多为“暂时性”的：\n\n 1）租车公司的二手车供应不足。美国租车公司的新车一般会在一年后（或更短时间内）作为二手车被卖出，而2020年疫情迫使租车公司大幅削减了新车的购买，导致目前进入市场的二手车数量锐减。2）近期芯片短缺间接影响二手车供应。3）社交距离增加二手车需求。4）经济风险、消费降级增加二手车需求。\n\n2、美国CPI走势研判。定性判断：5月二手车价格涨幅或趋缓，能源品和服务价格有望进一步上涨，5月CPI环比可能还会为正，但增速大概率小于4月。定量测算，预计5月美国CPI同比为4.4%左右，2021全年CPI同比增速为3.2%。\n但在2022年摆脱基数效应后，美国CPI同比增速有望回归2%附近，预计2022年一季度CPI同比为2.4%。\n3、美国CPI与PCE的相关性。PCE是美联储更为关注的通胀指标。美国PCE与CPI走势有较高同步性，但PCE的波动性通常小于CPI，且通常PCE月同比增速更低。背后原因：\n\n 1）公式效应。PCE的测算方法比CPI多考虑了价格变化后商品之间的替代效应。2）权重效应。例如，住房在PCE中的权重要显著小于CPI。据2019年以来的数据，“权重效应”是PCE与CPI走势有别的主要因素，它使PCE波动小于CPI，即权重效应在CPI走高时一定程度上将抑制PCE走得过高。3）范围效应。例如，由雇主提供的保险、政府医疗保险等，仅包含在PCE中。4）其他效应。PCE和CPI的季节性调整方法有别。\n\n4、美国PCE走势研判。\n历史上当CPI冲高时，2000年以来的CPI数据对PCE有较强的预测能力。综合考虑基数效应以及CPI与PCE的相关性，我们预测，2021年4月PCE同比值在3.0-3.3%区间，5月PCE同比在3.0-3.5%区间，2021年PCE同比值为2.4-2.6%区间，2022年一季度PCE同比有望回落至2%附近或以下。\n5、对美国通胀走势与美联储政策的思考。\n有很多因素支撑美联储判断通胀只是“暂时的”，我们补充四个重要的思考维度。一是，对于本轮大宗商品周期的判断。二是，国际贸易对物价的平抑作用。三是，美国财政刺激效果的持续性。四是，美联储的施政策略。\n（按照美联储由“淡定”到“慌张”排序）至少有五类情形均可能使美联储（至少对外表现出）漠视通胀：\n\n 1）美联储明确认为通胀压力将是暂时的。2）（较大可能）美联储不确定通胀是否是暂时的，选择“按兵不动”，待作进一步观察和分析。3）（较大可能）美联储判断通胀风险较大，但认为保就业比防通胀更重要，无奈选择“按兵不动”。4）美联储判断通胀风险较大，但不想背财政刺激过度的“锅”。5）美联储判断通胀风险较大，但稍显“违心”地安抚市场，暗地里可能已经（或很快将）开始讨论缩减QE。\n\n如果美联储维持鸽派，那么短期风险资产可能仍会表现积极，演绎“今朝有酒今朝醉”。但市场的猜疑很可能升温，未来美联储与市场沟通的难度很大，市场或容易将对美联储政策预期调整得更加“保守”（即预判美联储政策转向提前）。因此，未来1-2个月市场经历波动和调整的风险可能加大。\n2021年5月12-13日，美国CPI和PPI数据相继出炉，涨势均超市场预期。5月12日CPI公布后引发市场剧烈波动，美股三大股指均跌2%以上，标普500波动率指数（VIX）创近两个月以来新高，10年美债收益率跃升5bp至1.69%。\nCPI指标公布后，美联储多位官员紧急发言稳定市场情绪，继续看淡通胀风险。5月13-14日市场恐慌情绪似乎很快消退，股市反弹，10年美债收益率回落至1.63%。\n诚然，当前美国通胀指标上行超过市场预期、亦超过基数效应。而且，在近期大宗商品重启涨势的背景下，市场对于美国通胀的担忧进一步加剧，对于美联储“误判”通胀的担忧亦有显现。但这是否意味着，美国通胀水平将持续走高、美联储是否会迫于无奈而“出手”？\n我们尝试尽量抛开“热通胀”的直观感受，进行一系列“冷思考”：由美国通胀指标出发（因PPI的关注度与信息量有限，我们主要对CPI和PCE进行讨论），美国4月CPI具体缘何升高、能否持续？美国CPI与美联储更为关注的通胀指标PCE（个人消费支出指数）的相关性如何？美联储将如何应对通胀指标的升高？\n\n一、美国4月CPI解读及CPI走势研判\n1、美国4月CPI指标缘何蹿升：二手车涨价背后的故事\n美国4月CPI 同比4.2%，为2008年9月以来最高增速；环比0.8%，市场预期为0.2%。4月核心CPI同比3.0%；环比0.9%，市场预期为0.3%。整体看，4月美国CPI以及核心CPI增速都大幅超过市场预期。\n2021年1-4月，美国CPI环比增速分别为0.3%、0.4%、0.6%和0.8%，平均为0.5%，而2015-2019年、2016-2019年CPI月均环比分别仅为0.15%、0.18%。可见，2021年美国CPI蹿升的原因不只基数效应那么简单。\n4月美国CPI分项表现呈现三大特点：\n一是，二手车涨价为主要拉动。二手车和卡车指数环比升10%，这是1953年CPI指数生成以来的最大月度涨幅，前值仅0.5%，这一分项对4月CPI总指数的拉动超过1/3。二手车价格对商品分项乃至核心CPI形成显著拉动。\n美国二手车价格为何急涨？多为疫情后“暂时性”的供需矛盾：\n1）租车公司的二手车供应不足。美国租车公司的新车一般会在一年后（或更短时间内）作为二手车被卖出。而2020年新冠疫情迫使租车公司大幅削减新车购买，导致目前进入市场的二手车数量锐减。\n2）近期芯片短缺间接影响二手车供应。芯片短缺使新车制造速度放缓，继而二手车更迭速度也放缓，投放到市场的二手车更加有限。\n3）社交距离增加二手车需求。疫情后大量居民减少公共交通出行、远程办工、迁居郊区等，对二手车的需求上升。\n4）经济风险、消费降级增加二手车需求。为了在经济形势不稳定的时期省钱，尤其是在新车和卡车价格处于历史高位的情况下，美国居民倾向于选择二手车。\n\n二是，能源价格环比不升反降。4月能源分项反而环比小幅下降0.1%，能源品（-1.4%）、汽油（-1.4%）和原油（-3.2%）均环比下降，这与我们近期直观上感受到的大宗商品价格上涨现象背离。不过，所有能源品分项同比仍然大幅上涨25.1%，该分项在CPI中的权重为6.9%，对4月CPI同比增速的贡献是1.73个百分点。\n三是，交通服务领涨服务分项。4月交通服务分项环比升2.9%，显著超前值的1.8%；同比升5.6%，显著超过全部服务分项同比的2.5%。其中，航空费用和机动车保险两分项环比分别涨10.2%和2.5%。交通服务分项对全部服务分项、乃至核心CPI有重要拉动。\n综合来看，4月CPI数据体现的是，美国经济重启时出现了“暂时性”的需求激增，体现为食品饮料和交通出行的需求更快上升。随着美国疫情控制、线下消费与出行场景恢复，与之相关的需求增长带动物价短线上升是可以理解的。\n2、美国CPI走势研判：基数效应与“暂时性”因素\n我们预计，2021年5月美国CPI环比增速有望放缓，下半年CPI同比可能明显下降，2022年CPI有望回归“正常”。\n第一，二手车和卡车方面，上述供需矛盾可能导致2021年价格维持高位，但5月环比很难再次快速上升。且供需矛盾多为“暂时性”的，有望在2022年基本消除，帮助美国CPI以及核心CPI增速在2022年回落。\n第二，虽然4月能源分项环比下滑，但结合4月中旬以后的大宗涨势，5月能源分项可能环比回升。但我们对能源价格（尤其原油）的中长期走势偏于谨慎，主因是现阶段国际原油供给弹性仍然较强，能源分项在2022年的增速大概率至少回归历史平均水平。\n第三，服务分项价格可能会进一步抬头，原因是美国疫情持续改善和消费场景恢复。但目前需要思考的问题是，美国服务消费的恢复与商品消费的关系是怎样的、二者更多是“互补品”还是“替代品”？\n我们认为，随着服务消费的恢复，美国强劲的耐用品消费有可能环比回落，非耐用品消费在互补与替代的对冲作用下可能走平。\n综合来看，5月美国CPI环比可能还会为正，但大概率小于4月增速。这意味着，由于基数原因，5月CPI同比读数可能会比4月再高一些。但在2022年摆脱基数效应后，美国CPI同比增速有望回归2%附近。\n\n二、美国CPI与PCE相关性及PCE走势研判\n1、美国CPI与PCE的相关性：系统性的差异\n美国个人消费支出指数（PCE）是美联储更为关注的通胀指标。其与CPI的关系是：\n1）统计来源看，美国劳工统计局（BLS）负责统计CPI，依据对消费者的调查问卷；美国经济分析局（BEA）负责统计和测算PCE，依据的是BLS统计的CPI数值以及其收集的其他信息。\n2）功能上看，二者都是衡量物价的指标。CPI可能受到更多关注，其统计历史更长久，在美国CPI的用途更广泛，如用于社保支出调整、用于很多金融产品利率的调整（如TIPS通胀保值国债）等。而PCE是美联储通胀目标的参考依据。\n3）指标走势上看，历史上PCE与CPI走势有较高同步性，但PCE的波动性通常小于CPI，且PCE月同比增速系统性低于CPI。我们测算，2000年1月至2021年3月期间，美国PCE与CPI（月同比增速,下同）相关系数为0.983，核心PCE与核心CPI的相关系数为0.966；PCE月同比波动率为0.93%，CPI波动率为1.23%；PCE月同比平均值为1.81%，CPI平均值为2.12%。\n\n据美联储官方资料，PCE与CPI数值产生差异有四个原因：\n1）公式效应，PCE的测算是基于链式Fisher公式，而CPI是基于修正的Laspeyres公式。其关键区别在于，PCE比CPI多考虑了价格变化后商品之间的替代效应。例如，一项商品价格上涨，居民购买量减少，PCE的测算便会用新的“篮子”，以反映人们消费行为的变化。\n2）权重效应，即两个“篮子”中相同商品被赋予不同权重。CPI的权重使用的是居民购买情况调查里的权重，而PCE用的是企业销售产品情况调查的权重。例如，住房在美国PCE中的权重要显著小于CPI，2021Q1因住房权重不同PCE季调环比折年率比CPI低0.31个百分点。\n据2019年以来的数据，“权重效应”是PCE与CPI走势有别的主要因素，它使PCE波动小于CPI，即权重效应在CPI走高时一定程度上将抑制PCE走得过高。\n3）范围效应，即两个“篮子”涵盖不同的商品。CPI仅涵盖居民购买商品和服务的自付支出，而PCE还涵盖了为家庭服务的非营利机构的支出。例如，由雇主提供的保险、政府医疗保险等，仅包含在PCE中。\n4）其他效应，包括季节调整差异、价格差异和剩余差异等。PCE和CPI的季节性调整方法有别。\n2、美国PCE走势研判：基于CPI数据的预测\n2000年以来的美国CPI数据对PCE有较强的预测能力。我们尝试用两组美国CPI月同比数据，对美国PCE月同比进行OLS模型拟合（拟合1使用1960年1月至2021年3月数据、拟合2使用2000年1月至2021年3月），并重点观察1990年以来CPI走高时期（月同比2%以上）的拟合情况。\n我们发现，以2000年以来CPI数据进行的PCE拟合值与实际值更为贴合。尤其在CPI同比增速冲高的时期，通常可以观察到，CPI实际增速>PCE拟合1>PCE拟合2>=PCE实际增速（图表7）。根据4月美国CPI月同比（4.2%），两个模型的4月PCE拟合值分别为3.7%和3.3%。\n综合考虑基数效应以及CPI与PCE的相关性，我们预测，2021年4月PCE同比值在3.0-3.3%区间，5月PCE同比在3.0-3.5%区间（或为全年高点），2021年PCE同比值为2.4-2.6%区间（略高于3月美联储预测中值的2.4%），2022年一季度PCE同比增速有望回落至2%附近或以下。\n\n\n三、对美国通胀走势与美联储政策的思考\n4月美国CPI公布后，美联储官员“毫不犹豫”地看淡通胀风险。彭博发文指出或有六大因素支撑美联储的判断：通胀预期、就业不振、价格粘性、颠覆性技术、定价能力以及基数效应。在此基础上，我们补充另外四个重要的思考维度：\n一是，对于本轮大宗商品周期的判断。我们对本轮大宗商品周期持较为谨慎的态度（参考报告《大宗商品的“超级周期”来了吗？》）。\n关键原因是，本轮商品价格上涨的驱动力更多在供给侧而非需求端。本轮商品周期中，唯一有望成为全球需求端“超级发动机”的，可能是中国、美国乃至全球“绿色经济”转型对总需求的拉动。但这一过程释放的节奏能否快过供给端的自我调节，还有很大不确定性。\n二是，国际贸易对物价的平抑作用。2020年下半年开始，欧美经济复苏拉动了全球新兴市场（尤其亚洲）的出口。2021年一季度美国贸易逆差扩大创历史记录，亚洲出口维持强劲，欧洲制造业亦悄然发力。\n拜登领导下的美国对国际贸易的态度料将更加开放，大宗商品价格压力亦可能成为各国修复贸易关系的催化剂，如5月17日欧盟与美国的金属关税战宣布暂缓。如此看，未来美国有望通过国际分工继续控制本国消费与生产成本，一定程度上抑制通胀水平。\n三是，美国财政刺激效果的持续性。一方面，拜登今年1月推出的1.9万亿美元救助法案是“一次性”的。近期随着就业市场恢复不尽人意，美国多个州已经开始减少或暂停失业救助的发放。另一方面，近期共和党对拜登基建计划的态度进一步清晰，如媒体预计5月18日共和党将公布的基建计划修订方案的规模仅为5680亿美元，仅为拜登2.3万亿提案的四分之一。\n更何况，刚出炉的4月美国经济数据所展现的“慢就业+快通胀”现象，有可能进一步引发公众对财政刺激效果与副作用的争议。如果未来基建计划的规模大幅缩水，无论是其对美国通胀中枢的抬升作用，还是对公众通胀预期的打击，都可能进一步抑制通胀升高。\n四是，美联储的施政策略。对于未来通胀走势，除了“基数效应”是一个可以通过仔细测算而解决的“客观题”，其余大多是“主观题”。我们认为，如果进行细分（按照美联储由“淡定”到“慌张”排序），那么至少有五类情形均可能使美联储（至少对外表现出）漠视通胀：\n第一，美联储目前有较为明确的判断，认为美国通胀压力将是暂时的、可控的。\n第二（较大可能），美联储不确定通胀是否是暂时的，但难以根据4月CPI走高就认定通胀风险是令人担忧的。在“不确定”中最为理智的选择是“按兵不动”，作进一步观察和分析。\n第三（较大可能），美联储可能已经判断通胀风险较大，但就业与实体经济恢复基础尚不牢固，并认为保就业比防通胀更重要，因此无奈选择“按兵不动”。\n第四，美联储可能已经判断通胀风险较大，但认为这并非是货币政策造成的，而是拜登政府财政刺激过度的“锅”，继而尽量维持“不急转弯”的节奏，以期彰显货币政策的合理性。\n第五，美联储可能已经判断通胀风险较大，但考虑到货币政策需要“不急转弯”，以避免造成“紧缩恐慌”下的市场震荡，所以不得不稍显“违心”地安抚市场，但暗地里可能已经（或很快将）开始讨论缩减QE。\n但无论何种情况，可以较为确定的是两件事：第一，美联储大概率不会“急转弯”。第二，需警惕市场波动风险。\n短期看，如果美联储维持鸽派，市场风险偏好不一定会显著回落，风险资产可能仍会表现积极，演绎“今朝有酒今朝醉”。但当美联储和市场面对太多的“主观题”时，市场的猜疑亦很可能升温，这至少意味着未来美联储与市场沟通的难度很大。\n进一步看，市场或容易将对美联储政策节奏的预期调整得更加“保守”，即预判美联储政策转向提前。因此，未来1-2个月市场经历波动和调整的风险可能加大。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{".DJI":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1716,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0}],"lives":[]}